SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
215 PM MDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST                
PLAINS NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AND ONSET OF PCPN CHANCES IN THE WESTERN              
MTN AREAS...                                                                    
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS HAVE SLOWLY DISSIPATED.  A                   
BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTY WITH MARKED           
CLEARING EAST OF THIS LINE...AND SHALLOW CU DEVELOPING ACROSS                   
CROWLEY/OTERO/BENT/BACA COUNTIES. WV/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK                
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ACROSS UT...WITH A STRING OF WEAKER VORTS EXTENDING           
BACK ACROSS CENTRAL CA. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AREA           
IN WESTERLY FLOW NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAIN CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE            
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS SE PLAINS. 12Z MESO-ETA STILL HOLDING ON            
TO IDEA OF LOWER TROP MIXING OUT WITH DRY LINE SHIFTING EASTWARD                
ACROSS THE SE BORDER COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF 0-6KM SHEAR            
WITH 50KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR                  
CONVECTION. BUT...ONCE AGAIN...WE HAVE TO OVERCOME THE CAP AROUND 600           
MB.  PREFER THE RUC SOLUTION OF KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER              
WEST TO AROUND PUB. HOWEVER CAP IS ALSO STRONGEST FOR POINTS FURTHER            
WEST AND SOUTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK AGAIN TODAY WITH WHATEVER LIFT            
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM UT. WILL MONITOR                
LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS...BUT IF I DO HAVE TO INCREASE POP AREAL                
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS/ADJACENT MTNS...WOULD PROBABLY             
BE ISOLATED AT BEST. MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOC WITH UPPER JET APPEAR            
TOO FAR NORTH TODAY TO BE MUCH OF A PLAYER FOR OUR AREA.  MCS WILL              
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NE CO/SW NE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET                    
INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS SE             
PLAINS AGAIN TONIGHT KEEP MIN TEMPS WARM.  ACROSS MTNS AND WEST...              
VERY LOW DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...ALLOWING EFFICIENT              
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  KALS BRIEFLY HIT 30 DEGREES THIS MORNING. THINK           
THAT TEMPS COULD DO SOMETHING SIMILAR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IT MAY JUST              
ABOVE FREEZING. DUE TO BREVITY (30 MIN OR LESS OF NEAR FREEZING                 
TEMPS) FREEZE ADVISORIES DO NOT SEEM WARRANTED.                                 
ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN US ON MONDAY WITH CONTINUED WRLY              
FLOW OVER THE AREA.  AS TROUGH APPROACHES...LOW LVL WINDS ENHANCE               
FROM THE SE ACROSS PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE               
SOUTH. SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN UPSLOPE WILL LINGER AGAIN THROUGH THE           
AFTERNOON. 12Z MESO ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE/NO CAP WITH CONVECTIVE            
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.  COMBINED WITH A BIT BETTER                   
DYNAMICS AND UPPER JET APPROACHING AREA LATE IN THE AFTN...SEEMS                
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACROSS EAST PLAINS.  MAY BUMP UP POPS ALONG           
THE BORDER AREAS...AND MAY PULL WRN EDGE BACK TOWARDS THE I-25                  
CORRIDOR. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION OF DRY LINE THOUGH.                
AGAIN WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR...AND CAPES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...THERE           
WILL BE A THREAT FOR SVR.  OUT WEST...CONTINUED DRY WITH MOISTURE               
CONFINED TO AROUND 400 MB AND ABOVE.  STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN            
FOR MON NIGHT ACROSS SE PLAINS.                                                 
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS WRN US WITH UPPER JET NOW ACROSS NRN               
AZ/NM IN SPLIT FLOW FOR TUES.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST TO THE             
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY.  BUT WITH             
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...COMBINED              
WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LF QUAD OF UPPER JET...WILL KEEP SLIGHT                 
CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE.  ONCE AGAIN...PLAYING WITH THE CAP ISSUE THE            
FARTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS ONE GOES. IF CONVECTION CAN BE REALIZED...           
THEN POTENTIAL FOR SVR EXISTS ONCE MORE. PROBABLY LIKELY TO BREAK OUT           
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS                
WHERE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE/SUFF HEATING CAN OCCUR...WHICH WILL MOVE           
OFF INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTN.  ACROSS THE WESTERN MTN                  
AREAS...SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING           
SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED TYPE POPS GOING...ALTHOUGH MSTR               
WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT.  COULD BE SOME SORT            
OF MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS OVERNIGHT.  WILL BUMP UP                
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR LATE TUES NIGHT.                                      
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED...UPPER TROUGH HANGS OUT ACROSS THE           
WRN US WITH A CHUNK OF ENERGY SHEARING OFF ACROSS NRN US ROCKIES ON             
THURS.  LITTLE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO.           
ACROSS THE WEST GFS BRINGS BEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE AROUND THE                   
FRI/SAT TIME FRAME.  ACROSS THE EAST PLAINS...A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE             
IN ON SAT TO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION.  BOTTOM LINE...SLIGHT CHANCE              
POPS THROUGH EXTENDED STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH FOR                
WED/THURS TIME FRAME...TSTORMS IN WRN MTN AREAS WILL STILL BE HIGH              
BASED/LITTLE-TO-NO RAIN PRODUCERS.                                              
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
KT                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
850 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
IN SPITE OF 70+ VILS ESTIMTATED OVER TALLAHASSEE BY LOCAL RADARS                
EARLIER THIS EVENING...WE DID NOT OBSERVE...OR RECEIVE REPORTS OF...            
ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH LFCS AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS MAY HAVE                
RESULTED IN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE RADAR ESTIMATES.                                  
WE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS. WE ARE            
SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORM RE-DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND            
IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE LARGE MCS W OF               
OUR FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT            
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY RUC. STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MOSTLY                
OVER BY MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE WORDED ZONES ACCORDINGLY.                           
AT THIS TIME...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS                    
FORECAST.                                                                       
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...NONE.                                                                     
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
219 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
HATE TO FLIP FLOP ON A FORECAST...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WILL                
NEED TO REINTSTATE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO ALL OF THE              
NORTHERN COUNTIES. SHOULD NOT HAVE CHANGED PRECIP PORTION OF                    
ORIGINAL MORNING PACKAGE.                                                       
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
HAL                                                                             
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW                                                     
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
1105 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                     
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MORE PROMINENT THAN FORECAST IN THE                   
NORTH...AND LATEST INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT CHANGE.                   
HOWEVER...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS SEVERAL                 
THOUSAND FEET UP ON THE MESOETA ALSO MEAN IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR              
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE FAR NORTH. MEANWHILE...IN THE SOUTHERN                
PART OF THE AREA...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL HINDER TEMPS FROM WARMING              
AS MUCH AS WAS FORECAST.                                                        
WILL SPLIT OFF A FAR NORTHERN GROUP FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY EAST TO              
MARTIN COUNTY AND REMOVE AFTERNOON PRECIP. WILL GO WITH 1ST PERIOD              
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...WHERE            
MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WILL BE LEFT AS IS. IN THE SOUTH...WILL DROP              
1ST PERIOD TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO 80 TO 85.                                          
HAL                                                                             
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
300 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
NUMEROUS CHALLENGES THRU THE FCST PACKAGE...MAINLY EVOLVING AROUND              
PCPN CHANCES AND SKY COVER AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HIGH TEMPERATURES.            
SFC CHART EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/BNDRY SLIDING              
THRU THE CWA WITH A WEAK LOW NEAR HTS AND BTWN BWG AND PAH. HIGH                
PRESSURE OVER N IN AND W IA. SAT PICS SHOWING COPIOUS CI BLOW OFF               
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND SFC OBS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LVL                    
CLOUDINESS. RADAR SHOWED SOME ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWERS OVER THE CWA            
EARLIER...SCT SHOWERS STILL OVER WV MOVING SE THIS MORNING AND                  
INCREASING SHRA/TSRA OVER TN MOVING E-NE.                                       
SKY FCST TUFF THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY RANGE               
FROM PC TO MCLOUDY AT TIMES. JUST HOW DENSE WILL THE CI BE AND HOW              
MUCH WILL IT HOLD DOWN INSOLATION IS A TUFF CALL. ETA/M-ETA MODEL               
THIS MORNING IS WAY TOO WET RIGHT OFF THE BAT BUT THEY SEEM TO                  
REGROUP SOMEWHAT AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THINKING BEST CHC OF POPS                 
TODAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND NEAR THE TN BORDER...LOWER POPS              
(SLGHT CHC) ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID              
80S SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHC NORTH AND 30% SOUTH FOR              
TONIGHT.                                                                        
MODELS ALL STILL ADVERTISING SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL 5H CUT OFF LOW TO SET             
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER W-CNTRL TN/KY AND THEN THE 5H AND             
SFC LOWS WOBBLE AROUND THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND              
STRENGTH BUT THEY AGREE OVERALL IN AN INCRLY WET LOOKING SCENARIO.              
BASICALLY WENT WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING SKY COVER AND POPS RIGHT ON             
INTO NEXT WEEK. PREV FCST PACKAGE WAS LEANING THIS WAY AND I AM TO.             
I INCREASED THE SKY COVER A TAD FOR MON AND TUE AND ALSO RAISED THE             
THE POPS ANOTHER 10 PERCENT. LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS JUST A LITTLE                
ALSO FOR MON-TUE TO AROUND/NEAR 80. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT IT COULD             
BE EVEN A LITTLE COOLER THAN THAT IN THE FAR E-NE ZONES AND AGREE               
WITH CRW IN NDFD CHAT ROOM DISC FOR TEMPS. NOTED HPC DAY 3 (TUE) MAX            
TEMP PROG WITH HIGHS ONLY MID 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. I KEPT EITHER 40            
OR 50 POPS IN THE DATABASE FOR WED AND THUR AND CHC POPS AGAIN FOR              
FRI AND SAT. FIGURE WE WILL BE REFINING POPS ON A DAILY BASIS AS THE            
EVENT UNFOLDS.                                                                  
GFE/IFPS...DATA BASE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE HERE            
AND THERE AS NOTED ABOVE. DIDNT ADD ANY NEW MODEL DATA.                         
MOS...ETA MOS HITTING THE POPS TOO HARD AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD               
THE MAV AND NGM. ETA TEMPS ALSO A TOUCH TOO COOL. THE META'S UPPER              
50S MON NIGHT ALSO SEEMS TOO COOL.                                              
THANKS TO CRW AND MRX FOR CHAT ROOM COORDINATION THIS MORNING AND TO            
SDF FOR LAND LINE COORDINATION. WORK ZONES OUT BEFORE TOO LONG UNDER            
SDFOZFJKL.                                                                      
HALL                                                                            
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
915 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002                                                      
QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE N AND S OF CWFA...BUT            
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVER W TN. CONVECTION TO OUR N                 
CORRESPONDS WITH RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF JET FM OH INTO PA.               
WHILE CONVECTION OVER TN AND AR CORRESPONDS WITH LEFT FRONT EXIT                
REGION OF THE JET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TO LOWER             
MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW OVER KY.             
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TN KY STATE LINE WITH SOME             
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST TN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT             
MAIN CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. CANNOT SEE                
MUCH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN THE CWFA OVERNIGHT WITH MAIN SUPPORT              
TO OUR SW AND NE. 18Z MESOETA...18Z AVN OR 21Z RUC ARE NOT HANDLING             
THE CONVECTION VERY WELL...WITH 18Z MESOETA ESPECIALLY OVERDONE IN              
KY. WILL FOLLOW IDEA OF OUR AFTERNOON FORECAST...AND THE AUG 25                 
06Z-AUG 25 12Z QPF ISSUED BY HPC AT 22Z. THUS WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT             
CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO            
HOLD TOGETHER OVER SRN OH...BUT IF IT DOES MAY NEED TO UPDATE                   
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE OVERNIGHT AS            
WELL.                                                                           
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOOK OK. AT THIS TIME NO PLANNED CHANGES TO              
OVERNIGHT FORECAST.                                                             
SBH                                                                             
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
241 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002                                                      
...FORECAST ISSUES...                                                           
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES IN THE              
SHORT AND IN LONG TERM.  TEMPERATURES MAY BE PROBLEMATIC IN THE                 
EXTENDED AS WELL.                                                               
...MODELS/ZFP...                                                                
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.  THE MESO ETA/ETA ARE NOW ADVERTISING SOME            
CONVECTION FIRING TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  THIS            
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE FRONT.  ALSO AIDING IN THIS IS SOME MID                 
LEVEL COOLING THAT COULD ELIMINATE THE WEAK CAP IN PLACE.  I'M                  
HESITANT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT THE SOLUTION ALL TOGETHER GIVEN              
THE FACT THAT THE ETA/MESO ETA SOMETIMES GO OVERBOARD WITH FIRING               
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THESE FACTS AND THE FRONT STILL HANGING            
AROUND...CAN'T RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING UP.  THUS WILL CARRY                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA.                        
FWC/MAV/MET NUMBERS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.                    
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT                
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF AND ASSOCIATED                   
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  MESO ETA AND THE ETA PAINT SOME            
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.  PLAN ON GOING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY            
WORDING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS             
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER            
SOUTH.  ON MONDAY...PLAN ON JUST RUNNING LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE             
ENTIRE AREA.  BY TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF U.S. WITH                 
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH.  LOTS OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND...SO              
PLAN ON GOING WITH CHANCE POPS IN THIS PERIOD.  MAV/FWC/MET NUMBERS             
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND PLAN ON USING A BLEND. BASICALLY LOOKING AT              
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.                
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
A UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE                    
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE                  
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THE 00Z GFS RUN IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND            
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS...HOLDING A STRONG SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF               
US. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET HAS A STRONGER UPPER TROF COMING              
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND IS FORECASTING THIS TROF TO LIFT THE CUT              
OFF LOW UP AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.  WE AGREE WITH THIS             
MORNINGS PREEPD AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE 00Z GFS RUN EVENTHOUGH ITS                
CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT GREAT.  WITH THIS SOLUTION IN                 
HAND...EXPECT UPPER LOW TO LIFT OUT TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.               
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY WEEK WITH A               
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE LOOKS LIKE            
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.  WITH ALL            
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY               
FORECAST.  PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE TO THE MEX NUMBERS FOR THIS                   
CYCLE.  LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS            
IN THE MID 60S.                                                                 
...GRIDS...                                                                     
FORECAST DATABASE IN GOOD SHAPE.  MADE SOME TWEAKS IN ALL THE SHORT             
TERM ELEMENTS TO REFLECT UPCOMING FORECAST.  DID RELOAD WINDS IN THE            
FIRST 60 HOURS.  IN THE EXTENDED...RAISED POPS AND CLOUD                        
COVER...LOWERED AFTERNOON TEMPS.  LOADED IN NEW DATA FOR DAY SEVEN.             
...PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                            
LOZ 66/84 65/82 2323                                                            
JKL 65/83 63/82 1213                                                            
JARVIS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1105 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                     
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MORE PROMINENT THAN FORECAST IN THE                   
NORTH...AND LATEST INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT WILL NOT CHANGE.                   
HOWEVER...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS SEVERAL                 
THOUSAND FEET UP ON THE MESOETA ALSO MEAN IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR              
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE FAR NORTH. MEANWHILE...IN THE SOUTHERN                
PART OF THE AREA...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL HINDER TEMPS FROM WARMING              
AS MUCH AS WAS FORECAST.                                                        
WILL SPLIT OFF A FAR NORTHERN GROUP FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY EAST TO              
MARTIN COUNTY AND REMOVE AFTERNOON PRECIP. WILL GO WITH 1ST PERIOD              
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA...WHERE            
MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WILL BE LEFT AS IS. IN THE SOUTH...WILL DROP              
1ST PERIOD TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO 80 TO 85.                                          
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
HAL                                                                             
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW                                                     
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
300 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
NUMEROUS CHALLENGES THRU THE FCST PACKAGE...MAINLY EVOLVING AROUND              
PCPN CHANCES AND SKY COVER AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HIGH TEMPERATURES.            
SFC CHART EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING WEAK COLD FRONT/BNDRY SLIDING              
THRU THE CWA WITH A WEAK LOW NEAR HTS AND BTWN BWG AND PAH. HIGH                
PRESSURE OVER N IN AND W IA. SAT PICS SHOWING COPIOUS CI BLOW OFF               
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND SFC OBS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LVL                    
CLOUDINESS. RADAR SHOWED SOME ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWERS OVER THE CWA            
EARLIER...SCT SHOWERS STILL OVER WV MOVING SE THIS MORNING AND                  
INCREASING SHRA/TSRA OVER TN MOVING E-NE.                                       
SKY FCST TUFF THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY RANGE               
FROM PC TO MCLOUDY AT TIMES. JUST HOW DENSE WILL THE CI BE AND HOW              
MUCH WILL IT HOLD DOWN INSOLATION IS A TUFF CALL. ETA/M-ETA MODEL               
THIS MORNING IS WAY TOO WET RIGHT OFF THE BAT BUT THEY SEEM TO                  
REGROUP SOMEWHAT AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THINKING BEST CHC OF POPS                 
TODAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND NEAR THE TN BORDER...LOWER POPS              
(SLGHT CHC) ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID              
80S SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHC NORTH AND 30% SOUTH FOR              
TONIGHT.                                                                        
MODELS ALL STILL ADVERTISING SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL 5H CUT OFF LOW TO SET             
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER W-CNTRL TN/KY AND THEN THE 5H AND             
SFC LOWS WOBBLE AROUND THE AREA. SOME DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND              
STRENGTH BUT THEY AGREE OVERALL IN AN INCRLY WET LOOKING SCENARIO.              
BASICALLY WENT WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING SKY COVER AND POPS RIGHT ON             
INTO NEXT WEEK. PREV FCST PACKAGE WAS LEANING THIS WAY AND I AM TO.             
I INCREASED THE SKY COVER A TAD FOR MON AND TUE AND ALSO RAISED THE             
THE POPS ANOTHER 10 PERCENT. LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS JUST A LITTLE                
ALSO FOR MON-TUE TO AROUND/NEAR 80. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT IT COULD             
BE EVEN A LITTLE COOLER THAN THAT IN THE FAR E-NE ZONES AND AGREE               
WITH CRW IN NDFD CHAT ROOM DISC FOR TEMPS. NOTED HPC DAY 3 (TUE) MAX            
TEMP PROG WITH HIGHS ONLY MID 70S ACROSS THE BOARD. I KEPT EITHER 40            
OR 50 POPS IN THE DATABASE FOR WED AND THUR AND CHC POPS AGAIN FOR              
FRI AND SAT. FIGURE WE WILL BE REFINING POPS ON A DAILY BASIS AS THE            
EVENT UNFOLDS.                                                                  
GFE/IFPS...DATA BASE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE HERE            
AND THERE AS NOTED ABOVE. DIDNT ADD ANY NEW MODEL DATA.                         
MOS...ETA MOS HITTING THE POPS TOO HARD AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD               
THE MAV AND NGM. ETA TEMPS ALSO A TOUCH TOO COOL. THE META'S UPPER              
50S MON NIGHT ALSO SEEMS TOO COOL.                                              
THANKS TO CRW AND MRX FOR CHAT ROOM COORDINATION THIS MORNING AND TO            
SDF FOR LAND LINE COORDINATION. WORK ZONES OUT BEFORE TOO LONG UNDER            
SDFOZFJKL.                                                                      
HALL                                                                            
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
915 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002                                                      
QUESTION FOR THIS EVENING IS CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE N AND S OF CWFA...BUT            
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN OVER W TN. CONVECTION TO OUR N                 
CORRESPONDS WITH RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF JET FM OH INTO PA.               
WHILE CONVECTION OVER TN AND AR CORRESPONDS WITH LEFT FRONT EXIT                
REGION OF THE JET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TO LOWER             
MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW OVER KY.             
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TN KY STATE LINE WITH SOME             
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST TN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT             
MAIN CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. CANNOT SEE                
MUCH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN THE CWFA OVERNIGHT WITH MAIN SUPPORT              
TO OUR SW AND NE. 18Z MESOETA...18Z AVN OR 21Z RUC ARE NOT HANDLING             
THE CONVECTION VERY WELL...WITH 18Z MESOETA ESPECIALLY OVERDONE IN              
KY. WILL FOLLOW IDEA OF OUR AFTERNOON FORECAST...AND THE AUG 25                 
06Z-AUG 25 12Z QPF ISSUED BY HPC AT 22Z. THUS WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT             
CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO            
HOLD TOGETHER OVER SRN OH...BUT IF IT DOES MAY NEED TO UPDATE                   
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE OVERNIGHT AS            
WELL.                                                                           
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOOK OK. AT THIS TIME NO PLANNED CHANGES TO              
OVERNIGHT FORECAST.                                                             
SBH                                                                             
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
241 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002                                                      
...FORECAST ISSUES...                                                           
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES IN THE              
SHORT AND IN LONG TERM.  TEMPERATURES MAY BE PROBLEMATIC IN THE                 
EXTENDED AS WELL.                                                               
...MODELS/ZFP...                                                                
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.  THE MESO ETA/ETA ARE NOW ADVERTISING SOME            
CONVECTION FIRING TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY.  THIS            
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE FRONT.  ALSO AIDING IN THIS IS SOME MID                 
LEVEL COOLING THAT COULD ELIMINATE THE WEAK CAP IN PLACE.  I'M                  
HESITANT AT THIS POINT TO DISCOUNT THE SOLUTION ALL TOGETHER GIVEN              
THE FACT THAT THE ETA/MESO ETA SOMETIMES GO OVERBOARD WITH FIRING               
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THESE FACTS AND THE FRONT STILL HANGING            
AROUND...CAN'T RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING UP.  THUS WILL CARRY                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA.                        
FWC/MAV/MET NUMBERS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.                    
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT                
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF AND ASSOCIATED                   
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  MESO ETA AND THE ETA PAINT SOME            
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.  PLAN ON GOING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY            
WORDING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS             
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER            
SOUTH.  ON MONDAY...PLAN ON JUST RUNNING LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE             
ENTIRE AREA.  BY TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF U.S. WITH                 
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH.  LOTS OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND...SO              
PLAN ON GOING WITH CHANCE POPS IN THIS PERIOD.  MAV/FWC/MET NUMBERS             
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND PLAN ON USING A BLEND. BASICALLY LOOKING AT              
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.                
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
A UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE                    
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE                  
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THE 00Z GFS RUN IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND            
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS...HOLDING A STRONG SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF               
US. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET HAS A STRONGER UPPER TROF COMING              
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND IS FORECASTING THIS TROF TO LIFT THE CUT              
OFF LOW UP AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.  WE AGREE WITH THIS             
MORNINGS PREEPD AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE 00Z GFS RUN EVENTHOUGH ITS                
CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT GREAT.  WITH THIS SOLUTION IN                 
HAND...EXPECT UPPER LOW TO LIFT OUT TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.               
AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY WEEK WITH A               
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE LOOKS LIKE            
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.  WITH ALL            
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY               
FORECAST.  PLAN ON STICKING CLOSE TO THE MEX NUMBERS FOR THIS                   
CYCLE.  LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS            
IN THE MID 60S.                                                                 
...GRIDS...                                                                     
FORECAST DATABASE IN GOOD SHAPE.  MADE SOME TWEAKS IN ALL THE SHORT             
TERM ELEMENTS TO REFLECT UPCOMING FORECAST.  DID RELOAD WINDS IN THE            
FIRST 60 HOURS.  IN THE EXTENDED...RAISED POPS AND CLOUD                        
COVER...LOWERED AFTERNOON TEMPS.  LOADED IN NEW DATA FOR DAY SEVEN.             
...PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                            
LOZ 66/84 65/82 2323                                                            
JKL 65/83 63/82 1213                                                            
JARVIS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
.UPDATED...                                                                     
UPDATED TO ADD CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALL AREAS...OTHERWISE...NO       
CHANGES.                                                                        
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A COLD FRONT          
CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA      
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE          
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA ON       
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL CONTINUE W/CONSISTENCY & CONTINUITY. ETA HAS COME ARND BUT STILL           
HIGHLY OVERDONE ON ITS PRECIP FIELDS AS WELL STATED BY DAYCREW. FOR             
THE 1ST 12-24 HRS...I WILL USE THE RUC/MAPS AS IT IS MATCHING WELL W/CRNT       
SITUATION. OTRW...AVN/GEM/UKMET SOLN USED.                                      
FOR TDA: WILL LEAN W/LIKELY POPS (-RA) FOR BGR TO BHB-EPO AREAS THRU 18Z &      
THEN I BELIEVE RA SHOULD END W/MO CLDY CONDS. OVER NRN/CNTL AREAS...WILL        
CARRY 40% POPS FOR SCTD SHRA/TSRA W/COLD FROPA THIS AFTN. MDL SNDGS SHOW        
CAPES APCHG 500 J/KG W/LIS NR -2. TTS NEARING 50. SO...I BELIEVE THUNDER A      
GOOD BET.SOME LTG STRIKE WERE SHOWING UP OVER ONTARIO THE LAST FEW SCANS.       
DOWNEAST/CST MORE STABLE W/MARINE INFLUENCE & LAGGING CLD COVER. TEMPS WILL     
BE ABV GUID.                                                                    
TNGT: FRONT CLRS THE CST & BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES MOVES IN TO ALLOW FOR CLRG       
TREND. DECIDED TO STAY W/PC OVER THE N WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD GO           
CLR. BELIEVE MINS WILL BE HELD UP A BIT OVER THE N W/CONTD GRDNT. OVER          
DOWNEAST/CSTL AREAS...WILL USE MAV FOR MINS.                                    
FOR MON: A SECOND COLD FRONT W/REINFORCING SHOT DECENT LLVL CAA TO SUPPORT      
SCU DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE N. POTENT VORT MAX TO RIDE ACROSS             
SOUTHERN QUEBEC MON AFTN JUST CLIPPING FAR N. ATTM...WILL LEAVE                 
ANY MENTION PRECIP OUT AS BEST FORCING WELL N OF THE ME BORDER. WLY WIND        
W/CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME ON MON. MAV MIGHT BE A TAD TOO COOL. DECIDED    
TO AVG THE GUID ON MAXES.                                                       
LOOKING FURTHER OUT: NO CHGS MADE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD            
INTO THE CWFA FROM CAN ON TUE & REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THRU WED.              
DESPITE HGTS CLIMBING TO 588DM...BELIEVE TEMPS SHOULD FAVOR WHERE DAYCREW       
HAS THEM W/DRAINAGE FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES. LONG RANGE GUID SHOWS NEXT         
CHANCE FOR SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LATER THU INTO EARLY FRI AS THE                
NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE CWFA. DRIER WX BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.                  
.COASTAL WATERS...                                                              
NO FLAGS THIS GO ARND. N WINDS BECMG W W/SPDS ON THE AVG OF 10 KTS.             
.CAR...NONE.                                                                    
BT/CN                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1249 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                     
.UPDATED...                                                                     
UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER ALL AREAS AND TO CONTINUE A CHANCE OF      
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM         
OVER NORTHERN AREAS.                                                            
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF NOVA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A COLD FRONT          
CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA      
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE          
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA ON       
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL CONTINUE W/CONSISTENCY & CONTINUITY. ETA HAS COME ARND BUT STILL           
HIGHLY OVERDONE ON ITS PRECIP FIELDS AS WELL STATED BY DAYCREW. FOR             
THE 1ST 12-24 HRS...I WILL USE THE RUC/MAPS AS IT IS MATCHING WELL W/CRNT       
SITUATION. OTRW...AVN/GEM/UKMET SOLN USED.                                      
FOR TDA: WILL LEAN W/LIKELY POPS (-RA) FOR BGR TO BHB-EPO AREAS THRU 18Z &      
THEN I BELIEVE RA SHOULD END W/MO CLDY CONDS. OVER NRN/CNTL AREAS...WILL        
CARRY 40% POPS FOR SCTD SHRA/TSRA W/COLD FROPA THIS AFTN. MDL SNDGS SHOW        
CAPES APCHG 500 J/KG W/LIS NR -2. TTS NEARING 50. SO...I BELIEVE THUNDER A      
GOOD BET.SOME LTG STRIKE WERE SHOWING UP OVER ONTARIO THE LAST FEW SCANS.       
DOWNEAST/CST MORE STABLE W/MARINE INFLUENCE & LAGGING CLD COVER. TEMPS WILL     
BE ABV GUID.                                                                    
TNGT: FRONT CLRS THE CST & BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES MOVES IN TO ALLOW FOR CLRG       
TREND. DECIDED TO STAY W/PC OVER THE N WHILE DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD GO           
CLR. BELIEVE MINS WILL BE HELD UP A BIT OVER THE N W/CONTD GRDNT. OVER          
DOWNEAST/CSTL AREAS...WILL USE MAV FOR MINS.                                    
FOR MON: A SECOND COLD FRONT W/REINFORCING SHOT DECENT LLVL CAA TO SUPPORT      
SCU DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE N. POTENT VORT MAX TO RIDE ACROSS             
SOUTHERN QUEBEC MON AFTN JUST CLIPPING FAR N. ATTM...WILL LEAVE                 
ANY MENTION PRECIP OUT AS BEST FORCING WELL N OF THE ME BORDER. WLY WIND        
W/CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME ON MON. MAV MIGHT BE A TAD TOO COOL. DECIDED    
TO AVG THE GUID ON MAXES.                                                       
LOOKING FURTHER OUT: NO CHGS MADE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD            
INTO THE CWFA FROM CAN ON TUE & REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THRU WED.              
DESPITE HGTS CLIMBING TO 588DM...BELIEVE TEMPS SHOULD FAVOR WHERE DAYCREW       
HAS THEM W/DRAINAGE FROM CANADIAN MARITIMES. LONG RANGE GUID SHOWS NEXT         
CHANCE FOR SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LATER THU INTO EARLY FRI AS THE                
NEXT FRONT CROSSES THE CWFA. DRIER WX BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.                  
.COASTAL WATERS...                                                              
NO FLAGS THIS GO ARND. N WINDS BECMG W W/SPDS ON THE AVG OF 10 KTS.             
.CAR...NONE.                                                                    
BT/CN                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ALONG WITH               
TEMPS. LONGER TERM...FOCUS SHIFTS TO PCPN POTENTIAL FROM                        
WED-SUN.                                                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACRS NOAM WITH                 
MID/UPR LVL RDG AND BLOCKING OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY SEPARATING NRN              
STREAM OVER NRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND SRN STREAM FROM THE CNTRL/SRN              
PLAINS INTO THE SE CONUS. WEAK NRN STREAM SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED                 
FRONT/TROF SUPPORTED BAND OF SCT-BKN CU AND MID CLOUDS NE OF LK                 
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...WRN LAKES WERE DOMINATED BY SUBSIDENCE AND DRY            
AIR ABV MIXED LYR BENEATH MID LVL RDG LEAVING ONLY SCT DIURNAL CU               
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF UPR MI. SFC DEWPOINTS LINGERED IN THE UPPER             
50S F TO AROUND 60.                                                             
MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO FEATURES AFFECTING             
UPR MI THROUGH TUESDAY. SO...HAVE LEANED TOWARD ETA FOR DETAILS WITH            
WINDS/TEMPS.                                                                    
TONIGHT...CU WILL FADE THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH            
DIMINISHING WINDS...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD             
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD AOB SFC DEWPOINTS LEADING TO SOME FOG                
FORMATION. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE.               
SO...BEST FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER                    
LOW-LYING AREAS.                                                                
MONDAY...SFC HI BUILDS INTO UPR MI FROM NRN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO             
BRINGING VEERING WINDS TO NE. H8 TEMPS NEAR 15C SUGGEST MAX TEMPS               
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 INLAND WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR LK               
SUPERIOR WHERE NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 60S.                       
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...DRY ADVECTION AND MIXING WITH                       
STRENGTHENING ACYC NERLY FLOW FROM NRN ONTARIO SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY              
FOG POTENTIAL. STRONGER ENE GRADIENT FLOW ACRS LK SUPERIOR WILL                 
AGAIN KEEP TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER OVER NORTH CNTRL UPR MI.                   
SO...GUIDANCE TEMP VALUES LOOK REASONABLE.                                      
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY                 
APPROACHES UPR MI FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY AS BLOCKING PATTERN KEEPS              
INFLUENCE FROM WEAK MID LVL TROF (INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLOW)              
MAINLY WEST OF UPR MI. HAVE SCALED BACK PCPN FCST TO INCLUDE POPS               
ONLY FOR THE WRN 1/3 OF UPR MI.                                                 
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH MID/UPR LVL                
PATTERN GIVEN WEAK FLOW REGIME. MDLS (12Z AVN/UKMET/ECMWF) TREND HAS            
BEEN TO KEEP UPR MI UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRIER ACYC FLOW FROM HIGH RDG            
EXTENDING INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES FROM HI PRES TO THE NE MINIMIZING              
PCPN POTENTIAL. BY SUNDAY...00Z/12Z AVN SUGGEST STRONG ENOUGH SHRTWV            
AND SFC TROF MAY PROGRESS INTO THE AREA TO BRING CHANCE FOR                     
SHRA/TSRA.                                                                      
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS                    
EVENING. CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE PUSHING 70 ALONG            
AND SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. ALSO...THE RUC MODEL...                
THROUGH BUFKIT...SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY MID LEVEL CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON            
AROUND WOODLAKE/REDWOOD FALLS. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH THETA E AIR IS              
FORECAST OVER OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT MODELS INDICATE ONLY WEAK             
VERTICAL FORCING ESPECIALLY TONIGHT TROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ALSO                  
INDICATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT                   
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH            
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL                 
MINNESOTA MONDAY INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.                 
THESE FEATURES SHOULD ENHANCE OF THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WEAK WIND PROFILES AND LACK OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES             
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED AIR MASS CONVECTION DRIVEN MAINLY BY              
DIURNAL HEATING.                                                                
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
 WH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                     
SFC TROUGH NEARLY SPLITS OUR CWA FROM NE TO SW AT 12Z AND FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY (WEAK AS IT MAY BE) STRETCHES FROM NEAR ORF W TO NEAR DAN              
THEN SW TO BETWEEN AVL AND GSP. NO REAL TRIGGER FOR SHRA/TSTMS                  
UPSTAIRS SO AGREE WITH MID-SHIFT THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE                  
ALONG AND S OF TROUGH. WINDS REALLY NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE TODAY                  
BUT WILL UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANGES THAT HAVE OCCURRED SINCE                 
ZFP WAS ISSUED. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER OUR CWA CURRENTLY              
BUT VIS AND IR SAT LOOPS SHOW CLOUDS TO OUR W MOVING PRETTY SWIFTLY             
E PLUS CU/SC TO OUR N-NE WILL BE MOVING S SO SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE            
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE FCST.                                                
12Z MHX SOUNDING SHOWING PW OF 2.04 WITH A K INDEX OF 36 AND LI                 
OF -4 WHICH BACKS UP KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.                                
MARINE...FNT RMNS W OF WTRS THIS AM. LTST RUC80 SHOWG ITS GOING TO              
HV A HARD TM DROPPG S OF HAT TDY...EVEN THO RUC10 BRINGS IT S OF MHX            
WTRS BY 0Z. MESOETA SHOWS IT DROPPG S OF WTRS LTR TNGT. WL PROB GO              
WI A HAT-OCRACOKE AREA FOR WND SHIFT THIS PD. RMN IN SUBSIDENCE AREA            
AND CNVCTV INDICES SHOWG BEST INSTBLTY S OF AREA AS S/WV MVS E S OF             
CWA. WI THAT TO OUR S AND FROPA IN NRN SXNS CANT RULE OUT PCPN OVR              
WTRS TDY. WNDS AND SEAS RMN BLO HDLN CRIT. IF NECESSASRY WL TWEAK               
PCPN WORDING AND TIMING OF WND.                                                 
WILL GO LOW ON RIP THREAT TODAY DESPITE SLGTLY ABV NORMAL ASTRO                 
TIDES. OVERALL ENERGY MAKING TO THE BEACHES WEAK AND WINDS NOT                  
FAVORABLE TODAY FOR ADDING TURBULENCE TO THE SURF ZONE.                         
.MHX...NONE                                                                     
WS/CGG-G                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
10 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                       
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING BEST DEFINED FEATURE IS SURFACE TROUGH WHICH              
HAS PUSHED JUST S OF CWA AND EXTENDS SW INTO E CNTRL GA. FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY TO THE N GETTING MORE DIFFUSE BUT LOOKS BE STILL NEAR THE              
VA/NC BOARDER. SKIES CLEARING NICELY IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER              
PUSHING WELL S OF CWA. MHX SOUNDING STILL SHOWING PW GREATER THAN 2             
INCHES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTN HEATING.                                
NEXT UPSTREAM SHRTWV/VORT LOBE EVIDENT IN IMAGERY AND MODELS IS                 
SPREADING CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SHWRS/CNVTN INTO WESTERN CAROLINAS.             
BY 21Z RUC DEPICTING IMPRESSIVE UVVS AND POTENTIAL CNVTN WHILE META             
DEPICTING FEATURE SLOWER AND UPSTREAM THIS EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL              
FOR MORE STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING. WILL CONSIDER NUDGING 30% POPS             
UP SLIGHTLY FOR EVENING. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON            
THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS/TSTMS                
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO MAY TRY TO TWEAK SKY                   
CONDITIONS ALSO.                                                                
MARINE: WITH FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER WINDS            
NORTH OF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH ARE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME.              
THIS SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. THE LATEST RUC IS A LITTLE TO                
AGGRESSIVE ON SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TO FAR SOUTH.                 
LATEST BEACH CAMS SHOWING FAIRLY FLAT CONDITIONS WITH OFFSHORE WIND             
WITH A PERIODIC 2 TO 3 FOOT WAVE. SO FOR UPDATE WILL SPLIT AREA                 
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR FOR WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY            
AFTERNOON AND WILL PLACE RANGE OF SEA HEIGHTS FOR THE INITIAL                   
OFFSHORE WIND.                                                                  
FCSTID = 01                                                                     
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS                                                             
KILM  93 75 87 73 /  30 30 50 50                                                
KLBT  93 73 87 70 /  30 30 50 50                                                
KFLO  94 73 88 71 /  30 30 50 50                                                
KMYR  90 75 85 73 /  30 30 50 50                                                
.ILM...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
RWA/DRH                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
930 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY WEAK WIND FLOW PATTERN ACRS THE ERN              
TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES.  SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE             
WERE NOTED.  A WEAK SFC LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KSDF...KLEX AND KBWG.           
THE WEAK SFC LOW WAS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEVELOPING H5 LOW                
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VLY.  A WEAK S/WV WAS ALSO NOTED             
ON WATER VAPOR AND RUC/ETA MODEL OVER CNTRL KY.  KILN RADAR WAS                 
SHOWING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH...BUT EVER SO                     
CLOSE...TO THE CWFA.  AT THIS POINT...WILL BANK ON PIVOT POINT OF               
S/WV VORTICITY AT H5 TO STAY NEAR IN THE SAME LOCATION...AND WITH               
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN              
AND DISSIPATE OVER TIME.  HOWEVER...BEING THAT THEY ARE SO                      
CLOSE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THEM SHOULD THEY CROSS OVER            
THE KILN CWFA LINE.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA....UPR LVL                   
DEFORMATION AXIS DUE TO DEVELOPING H5 LOW WAS CREATING A CIRRUS                 
SHIELD OVER THE NRN CWFA.  WITH THIS NOTED...WILL CHANGE MOSTLY                 
CLEAR IN THE NORTH TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...THINKING THAT SKIES SHOULD                
REMAIN THIS WAY AT LEAST FOR THE GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT.  PARTLY             
CLOUDY SOUTH LOOKS OK AT THIS POINT.  TEMPS ALSO LOOK OK WITH LOWER             
60S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.                                                     
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
HICKMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR                                             
830 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
A FEW ISSUES ON THE TABLE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. NORTH BEND FINALLY            
HAD THE MEASUREABLE DRIZZLE END SHORTLY AFTER 8 AM. CLOUDS BEGINNING            
TO BREAK UP TO SOME DEGREE IN THIS AREA AND ANY LOCAL DRIZZLE LEFT              
SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE WELL INLAND WITH TOPS NEAR           
4000 FEET IN THE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS. CLOUDS WILL                  
GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON.                                              
BIGGER QUESTION IS POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. 12Z MESO-ETA            
FOCUSES 00Z MONDAY INSTABILITY NORTH OF DIAMOND LAKE AREA WITH A -4             
SHOWALTER INDEX. THE INSTABILITY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN KLAMATH AND           
LAKE COUNTIES AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST OFFSHORE MOVES INLAND. WE               
ALREADY SAW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THIS MORNING JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA.            
RUC MODEL FOCUSED MAXIMUM INSTABILITY A LITTLE EAST OF THE MESOETA...           
ACROSS NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE 20% POPS FOR              
THIS REGION TODAY.                                                              
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE DEEP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT MORE DRIZZLE           
AT THE COAST FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTHWARD. WILL LOOK AT THIS FURTHER              
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER BROOKINGS HIGH TODAY BASED ON LAST COUPLE            
OF DAYS AND LOW CLOUDS THERE THIS MORNING. WILL RAISE HOWARD PRAIRIE            
INTO THE MID 70S TODAY.                                                         
SANDLER                                                                         
.MFR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   or                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
RUC SHOWS H5 VORT MOVG OFF CST ATTM. DOESN'T APR TO BE MUCH IN THE              
WAY OF UPR DYNAMICS UNTIL MON WHEN NXT VORT SWINGS THRU THE AREA.               
AMS RMNS MST AND UNSTBL...AND MSAS SHOWS SFC LOW ACRS CNTRL GA WITH             
SFC TROF EXTENDING NEWD OFF THE NC CST. MSTR CONVERGENCE CONTG W OF             
FA HELPING TO INITIATE TSRA DVLPMT ACRS GA CNTYS THIS EVE. WILL CONT            
WITH CHC POPS OVERNIGHT FOR ENTIRE AREA WITH HIGHEST POPS ACRS GA               
CNTYS. MOCLDY SKIES...LGT WINDS...AND TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 70S              
FOR RMNDR OF TNGT.                                                              
MARINE...MINOR CHGS ON UPDATE MAINLY FOR INITIAL CONDS. WINDS SHUD              
BECOME SW-W LTR TNGT 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.                                  
.CHS...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
JAC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
940 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
FAIRLY SIG VORT OVER NE AL AND CENTRAL TN SHOWS UP WELL ON THE WATER            
VAPOR ATTM. IT ALSO SHOWS UP VERY WELL AS AN AREA OF LOWERED TROP ON            
THE RUC. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE ETA/AVN/RUC ALL DEVELOP                      
DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN OVER THE NRN CWA BEGINNING AFTER 6 UTC. THE               
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING ARE ALL A LITTLE DIFFERENT.                           
HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE 00 UTC GSO SOUNDING...WHICH IS SATURATED               
WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE...VERY LITTLE FORCING WL BE NEEDED            
TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD PCPN.                                                    
SO...IT SHOULD RAIN. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER                 
PRETTY GOOD TDA...AND H8 ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY A WEAK H8 COLD POOL.               
THUS...UPGLIDE PCPN WL HAVE ITS WORK CUT OUT FOR IT.                            
WL UP POPS TO 70 PERCENT IN THE NE HALF ON THE CWA TNGT AND MON. WL             
ALSO ADD "NUMEROUS" WORDING AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TO THESE ZONES              
FOR LATE TNGT AND MON. WOULD GO CAT POP (PROBABLY SHOULD) BUT I DO              
HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT HOW FAR S THE PCPN WL DEVELOP W/THE LACK OF A            
STRONG SFC BNDRY/COLD POOL.                                                     
FCSTID =   14                                                                   
GSP   69  82  67  81 /  60  60  50  50                                          
AND   69  83  67  83 /  60  60  50  50                                          
CLT   69  80  67  81 /  70  70  50  50                                          
HKY   67  79  65  77 /  70  70  50  50                                          
AVL   65  77  62  76 /  70  70  50  50                                          
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
908 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN THE CSRA BUT                 
MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH              
THOUGH. RUC AND MESOETA SHOW NVA REPLACING VORT LOBE OVER ALL OF THE            
CAE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. WILL DO QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE LIKELY POPS OUT OF            
ENTIRE AREA. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS CSRA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. NVA                 
CONTINUES MONDAY MORNING...SO WILL SAY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY LIKELY ON             
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES STILL SOUND OK. OTHERWISE...NO MORE CHANGES.               
FCSTID = 7                                                                      
CAE   74  89  72  87 /  10  60  50  60                                          
AGS   71  89  70  88 /  30  60  50  60                                          
SSC   73  88  72  88 /  10  60  50  60                                          
OGB   74  88  71  88 /  10  60  50  60                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
TTH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY...UPDATED           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
320 PM MDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
WATER VAPOR DEPICTS UPR LOW OVR MT...WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING                
NORTH THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SFC TROF DVLPG IN THE LEE OF                   
ROCKIES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVR CNTRL PLAINS RESULTING IN RETURN               
FLOW ACRS CWFA. STRONG CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE OVR ERN MT AND               
WRN ND.                                                                         
WILL CONT TO SEE ISOLD PULSE TSTMS OVR BLKHLS INTO THIS EVE AS CAP              
HAS ERODED. AMS HAS DRIED AND MID-LVL FLOW PICKED UP...THEREFORE                
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND SLOW MOVG TSTMS IS MINIMAL THIS EVE. TSTM             
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONT TO DVLP ACRS ERN MT AND WRN ND. 18Z                   
ETA/RUC BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THIS ACTIVITY AND SPRDG IT E/SE                 
TNGT.  CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST IF THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO MCS IT             
WILL TRAVEL ESE...AFFECTING NWRN ZONES. ADDITIONALLY...LO LVL JET               
INCREASES LATER TONIGHT ACRS SRN ZONES WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF                    
1000-1500J/KG ALG WITH GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION. THEREFORE IF AN MCS              
DVLPS IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DVLP SWD ACRS ERN HALF OF ZONES.            
HOWEVER...IF MCS REMAINS TOO FAR NORTH...THERE WILL STILL BE DECENT             
SHOT OF SEEING ISOLD CONVECTION ACRS SRN/ERN ZONES AS ENOUGH UVV                
WILL BE IN PLACE.                                                               
UPR LVL TROFING REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FROM THE PAC NW TO NRN             
ROCKIES THRU MID WEEK. IT WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO TIME/POSITION              
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN UNSTABLE SW FLOW...THEREFORE CHC OF POP                 
WARRANTED THROUGH ENTIRE 1-3 DAY FCST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY                 
CONSISTENT DURING THIS PD AS WELL.                                              
EXTENDED...CONTD TROFING WITH UNSETTLED WX PATTER EXPECTED THROUGH              
FRI...WITH LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME HINT OF SHORT WAVE                
RIDGING ON SAT. A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROF SWINGS THRU NRN PLAINS DAY 7            
FOR RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX AND SLIGHT COOL DOWN.                                
.UNR...NONE                                                                     
JOHNSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
300 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
CURRENT...LAMP SURFACE WIND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONT JUST               
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE            
TO DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.                                                 
DAYS 1-4...LATEST RUC SUGGESTS SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE              
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT BEFORE RETREATING NORTH AGAIN TOMORROW.            
WILL GROUP OUR NORTHERN TWO COUNTIES SEPARATE FROM THE REMAINDER OF             
THE BIG COUNTRY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND                 
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...SUNNY             
DAYS...CLEAR NIGHTS...AND NIL POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE             
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE MET MOS                   
NUMBERS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MAV NUMBERS LOOK                 
BETTER...BUT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE LOOK BEST WITH LITTLE            
CHANGE IN THE UPPER RIDGE.                                                      
DAYS 5-7...SEE LITTLE CHANGE FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH NEXT                
WEEKEND.                                                                        
CCF PRELIMS...                                                                  
ABI 075/099/075/098 0000                                                        
SJT 075/100/075/099 0000                                                        
JCT 074/098/074/098 0000                                                        
.SJT...NONE.                                                                    
23/HUBER                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
330 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002                                                      
PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN FOCUSED ON FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...THEN                 
TIMING AND EXTENT OF NEXT RAIN CHANCES.                                         
AT LATE AFTERNOON...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LINE OF TOWERING           
CUMULUS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR KAEL TO             
KOLZ. RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA HAD FORMED ALONG THIS LINE             
AS WELL. RUC MODEL DEPICTED THIS WEAK BOUNDARY AND ALSO SHOWED THE              
CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...WEAK WINDS ALOFT OVER THE UPPER           
MIDWEST BETWEEN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS. THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CIRCULATION SEEN WELL IN WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER.                                   
THE AVN AND ETA MODELS FROM THE AUGUST 25TH 12Z DATA SET WERE IN                
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON FORECAST SCENARIO. HOWEVER...AVN GENERATED QPF             
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA MONDAY EVENING...WHILE ETA DID           
NOT. OTHERWISE...THE ETA AND AVN ADVERTISED KEEPING QPF NORTH AND               
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE MOST PART.                
THIS APPEARS DUE TO LARGE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OUT OF SOUTHEAST                 
CANADA NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WHILE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA SHORT WAVE                 
LIFTS ONLY VERY SLOWLY TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG. NCEP SHORT RANGE                   
ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF RAIN MONDAY             
THROUGH TUESDAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS WELL.                          
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA EXPECTED               
TO END THIS EVENING AS WEAK CONVERGENCE PUSHES SOUTHWARD.                       
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH THERE WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT              
DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS. WE BELIEVE THE DENSE           
FOG SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.                     
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES MID-MORNING MONDAY...INSTABILITY INCREASES             
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE BUILDING TO 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF            
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THUS OPTED TO MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY               
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA...BUT KEPT MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER ZONES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL WI DRY. THIS DUE DRYING/SUBSIDENCE            
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.                
TUESDAY STILL PROBLEMATIC WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY             
ACROSS WI ZONES WHERE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES. CONFIDENCE           
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL RAIN CHANCES...SO MAINTAINED                        
PROBABILITIES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AREAWIDE FOR TUESDAY.                      
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE A PLAYER THROUGH                   
MIDWEEK. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK...BUT DECENT INSTABILITY                       
PERSISTING...SO APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WARRANTED THROUGH                  
THURSDAY AS ANY SORT OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SHOULD TRIGGER                     
CONVECTION.                                                                     
PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY APPEARS THE WAY TO GO WITH TEMPERATURE               
FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE                
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S LOOK REASONABLE. AVN...NGM...ETA MOS GUIDANCE            
IN OVERALL SUPPORT OF THESE VALUES.                                             
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
THOMPSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
225 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2002                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE NEAR TERM DENSE FOG                 
POTENTIAL...PRECIP CHCS IN NORTH TODAY AND TEMPERATURES.                        
LESS CI ACROSS FA TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WHEN WIDESPREAD DENSE               
FOG DID NOT DEVELOP. SO FAR MASON CITY...WATERLOO...AND FORT DODGE              
HAVE DROPPED DOWN BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES. AREAS FROM MASON CITY TO             
AROUND WATERLOO...AND SOUTH TO AROUND OTTUMWA RECEIVED SOME DECENT              
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE MOST FAVORED FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE             
NEXT FEW HOURS. WL MONITOR TRENDS TOWARDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF                    
LAST-MINUTE ADVISORY BEFORE ISSUANCE.                                           
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING VERY MUCH IN               
QUESTION. AVN AND EXTENDED RUC SUGGEST SCATTERED PRECIP...WHILE                 
ETA/NGM REMAIN DRY. THERE WILL BE SOME FAVORABLE CAPE AND WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...SO HESITANT TO PULL LOW POPS IN NORTH                
COMPLETELY. WL SCALE BACK WORDING TO ISOLATED. EASTERLY FLOW                    
FAVORABLE FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEED PROGGED TO BE              
UP SLIGHTLY. WL MENTION PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.                  
TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. RAIN CHC WEDNESDAY NIGHT                
ALSO QUESTIONABLE PER AVN/EXTENDED ETA....BUT WITH LOW                          
CONFIDENCE...WL LEAVE MENTION IN FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FA.                   
FOR TEMPERATURES...COOLER MAV GUIDANCE TURNED OUT TO BE A BIT TOO               
COOL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I'LL GO WITH A BLEND FOR MAXES...AND STAY            
TOWARDS THE WARM END FOR MINS.                                                  
IN THE EXTENDED (THU-SUN) RAIN CHC STILL LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST             
OF FA ON THURS AND FRI...WITH THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP LATE SAT INTO              
SUNDAY WITH FROPA. TEMPS WL REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL.  NO CHANGES               
PLANNED TO EXTENDED GRIDS.                                                      
.DSM...NONE.                                                                    
KINNEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1030 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2002                                                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR S AND WAVES OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO RIDE                
ALONG THE FRONT. ONE VORT HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED THROUGH OUR CWA THIS             
MORNING AND DUMPED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS (HERE AT                 
MHX WE RECEIVED 1.37 AND NCA 1.64). ANOTHER VORT SHOULD MOVE                    
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SPAWNING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS.                    
WILL BACK OFF POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE IT WILL                  
NOT RAIN ALL AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH 80%. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME MINOR             
TWEAKS TO WINDS. NC WILL BE IN THE FAVORED RRQ OF UPPER JET                     
THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOUNDING FROM MHX AND GSO DO NOT FAVOR                       
SEVERE TSTMS.                                                                   
12Z MHX SOUNDING REAL JUICY WITH PW OF 2.19. CAPE IS DOWN A BIT                 
FROM YESTERDAY'S 1936 J/KG TO 1351 J/KG TODAY. LI THIS MORNING WAS              
-3 COMPARED TO -4 YESTERDAY. FCST MAX TEMP FROM SOUNDING IS                     
82 BUT ALL IT WILL TAKE IS FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE WHICH WILL                
ALLOW FOR FCST VALUES OF MID 80S TO BE ATTAINABLE.                              
MARINE...CRNT SFC ANAL SHOWG FRNT RUNNG ALNG THE CST. LTST RUC KPG              
FRNT S OF WTRS TDY WHILE 6Z ETA BRINGS IT N AND HAS IT NR OREGON                
INLET ARND 0Z AND AVN BRINGS IT N OF WTRS BY 0Z. NONE OF THE MDLS               
INITIALIZED VERY WL ON PSN OF FNT. WL LEAN TWRDS 6Z ETA AND MODIFY              
WI CRRNT CONDS. OTRWS NO MJR CHGS PLANNED IN CWF.                               
.MHX...NONE                                                                     
WS/CGG-G                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
1025 AM MDT MON AUG 26 2002                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN                 
STATES TODAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                      
.DISCUSSION...UPPER FLOW PATTER SHOWS A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE                    
EXTENDING ACROSS CANADA WITH SEVERAL WEAKNESSES IN THE WEST                     
UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE.  ONE SUCH TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH                
EASTERN OREGON.  THIS SYSTEM IS STILL MODELED TO MOVE INTO THE                  
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN STICKS AROUND              
IN WEAK UPPER FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.  GOOD DYNAMICS SHOULD            
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE                    
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  ENOUGH FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER HIGHER            
TERRAIN...WHICH IS COVERED IN CURRENT FORECAST.  MORE WIDESPREAD                
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH             
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NEVADA AT THIS                  
TIME.  LIKELY JUST MOVED THROUGH WINNEMUCCA PAST HOUR WITH A SLIGHT             
JUMP IN THEIR NORTHWEST WIND AND A PRESSURE RISE. NOT A SHARP                   
BOUNDARY HOWEVER.  THIS FITS WITH LATEST RUC ANALYSIS.  RUC AND                 
MESOETA PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA AS               
EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL WIND SHIFT WILL BE FAIRLY                 
MINOR...NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH ANY LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF THE                    
LAKE...THEN FOLLOWED BY STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING THAT              
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                                
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME SO NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.                      
SLC 243 CDC 011  JACKSON                                                        
.SLC...RFW...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR DRY LIGHTNING NORTHERN AND                  
       CENTRAL UTAH FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
300 PM PDT MON AUG 26 2002                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE              
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.                    
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HEADING TOWARDS              
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWFA...HOWEVER...WILL EXPECT MUCH OF IT TO             
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE DISTRICT. HIGH CENTERED OVER THE                  
SOUTHWEST REMAINS FLAT AND ELONGATED AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS                  
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT NO NORTHWARD                 
TRANSPORT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA.                         
MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENTS IN DROPPING THE UPPER              
LOW IN A RETROGRADE FASHION FROM EASTERN OREGON. THIS WILL PROVIDE              
FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TO ALMOST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN               
CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE BEHAVIOR OF TEMPERATURES                 
WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT                  
GUIDANCE AS IT SHOWS FORECASTED MAX TEMP/S FROM THE UPPER-MID                   
90S TO ALMOST 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. FEEL THAT AS THE TROUGH DROPS             
HEIGHTS ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH A FEW DEGREES               
OF COOLING. WILL INCREASE WINDS ON TUESDAY AS A VORT MAX SWINGS                 
THROUGH THE DISTRICT. YET...WILL EXPECT THE WIND INCREASE TO REACH              
BREEZY LEVELS AND LOCALLY WINDY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE               
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE FURTHER COOLING ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH              
LIFTS OUT ON THURSDAY. WILL SEE SLIGHT WARMING ON THURSDAY...BUT...             
WILL EXPECT IT TO REMAIN WEAK AS ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS TO REGION ON             
FRIDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE DISTRICT AND THE ONE                
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WILL NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW MOIST                   
MONSOONAL AIR TO PUSH NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT SEVEN DAYS             
OF DRY CONDITIONS.                                                              
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP THURSDAY OF A DEGREE OR TWO...HEIGHTS                     
BEGIN FALLING ON FRIDAY TO FURTHER THE COOL DOWN OVER THE DISTRICT.             
EVEN WITH ALL OF THE SHORT AND LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOWING AGREEMENT            
WITH THIS EVENT...GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.                
WILL CONTINUE TO GO BELOW TO WELL BELOW GUIDANCE THIS FORECAST                  
PACKAGE AS THE TWO TROUGHS PROVIDE FOR STABLE COOL AIR TO SETTLE                
OVER THE REGION FOR SEVEN DAYS.                                                 
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
MOLINA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
945 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2002                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE PUSHING             
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS              
SHORTWAVE HELPED KICK OUT THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW THAT SPUN AROUND                
EASTERN OREGON/WESTERN IDAHO OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE                    
REMAINED TOO FAR NORTH TO INFLUENCE THE DISTRICT/S WEATHER OTHER                
THAN INCREASE SOME OF THE UPPER LEVELS WINDS. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS            
FROM OAKLAND AND VANDENBERG WERE SHOWING GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10              
TO 20 KNOTS ABOVE 2500 FEET THIS MORNING. YET...BOTH LOCATIONS ALSO             
SHOWED WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON THE 24 HOUR TREND. THEREFORE...           
FEEL THAT POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE NORTHERLY FLOW MAY BE               
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. HOWEVER...THE FLOW            
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH HEIGHT...SO WILL              
NOT EXPECT ANY MOISTURE TO TRANSPORT NORTHWARD IN THE NEAR FUTURE.              
CURRENT TRENDS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH FORECASTED CONDITIONS...              
SO NO UPDATED NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                              
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
MOLINA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
312 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2002                                                      
SYNOP...CNTRL U.S. RDG XPNDG WITH TROFING OVR THE WRN U.S./ROCKIES.             
BEST LOW LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INSTABILITY...ETC W OF FA. E/SE               
LOW LVL FLOW WITH LWR H8 THETAE AIR PUSHING OVR MOST OF FA.                     
SHORT TERM...WK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AIDING IN ISOLD TRW DVLPMT IN               
SRN MN...MAY BUILD INTO N CNTRL IA THIS EVEN. 18Z RUC LENDS SOME                
SUPPORT TO THIS. PREV FCST HAD MENTIONED AND WL LET IT RIDE. OTRW               
AMS HAS NOT CHGD SO XPCG MORE FOG OVRNGT. NICE DAY TMR WITH                     
TOLERABLE DEWPTS AND HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.                                       
LONGER TERM...CUR FCST HAS TSTM MENTION WED NGT AND THU MRNG NRN                
HALF AS S/W TOPS THE RDG. H8 BNDRY SINKS INTO NRN IA TO ACT AS A                
FOCUS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW. DRY FCST TIL LATE SAT INTO SUN UNTIL               
NXT XPCD WAVE. HIGHS THRU THE PD IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.               
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
MYERS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MORNING ZONE UPDATE                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1207 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2002                                                     
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO ZONE PACKAGE JUST ISSUED WAS POP/TEMPERATURE                 
FORECAST FOR EAST OF A KMVN-KPAH LINE AND CLOUD FORECAST WEST OF                
THAT LINE. AVN MOS TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE...SO ONLY MADE MINOR                      
TEMPERATURE RANGE TWEAKS FOR REVISED DIGITAL FORECAST.                          
ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THU-SAT TIME PERIOD PCPN/CLOUD FORECAST.               
MAIN VORT CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY DEVELOPED CLOSED LOW              
WAS CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SE OF KOWB /OWENSBORO KY/ AT                   
26/15Z...WITH BEST GUESS LOCATION OF CENTER OF 50H LOW NEAR KFFT                
/FRANKFORT KY/. THE LOW CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE 12Z UPPER MANUAL                 
ANALYSIS AND THE 26/00Z MRF AND 26/12Z AVN PROGGED LOCATION. THE ETA            
AND NGM MODELS SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE LOW TOO FAR INTO ERN KY.                
QPF FIELDS FOR PCPN THIS AFTN APPEARED TO BE 70NM TOO FAR NORTHEAST             
FOR THE 15Z RUN OF THE 40 KM RUC MODEL...AND 140-150 NM SW FOR THE              
12Z AVN MODEL.                                                                  
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR DIFFERENCES IN MASS AND TEMPERATURE                  
FIELDS...BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES OF FOR MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD BE              
EAST OF A FAIRFIELD IL...PRINCETON TO MURRAY KY LINE THIS AFTN. I AM            
CONCERNED THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AND DRIFT OFF THE                    
FOOTHILLS IN SERN MO INTO SWRN IL...BUT CONSIDERED THAT COVERAGE MAY            
BE TO SMALL TO WARRANT MENTION IN CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE.                         
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
SMITH                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
315 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2002                                                      
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY            
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS              
THE STORMS HAVE VERY LITTLE SHEAR.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIURNAL.             
THE OTHER CONCERN IS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH             
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET.  THE              
MODELS DIVERGE ON THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ETA DRIER AND FURTHER               
WEST. THE LATEST RUC MODEL ALSO SHOWS WEAK FORCING AND DEVELOPMENT.             
THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE A SMALL CHANCE IN W CENTRAL ZONES.                   
THE AVN AND ETA MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT            
OF THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE AVN IS MORE AGGRESSIVE               
AND ADVECTS INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF MN...WHILE THE ETA MAINTAINS             
A STRONG HIGH TO THE EAST AND KEEPS ERLY FLOW OVER THE ERN ZONES AND            
THE STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE WEST.  BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED A               
SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST DEVELOPMENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE CUTOFF             
LOW FORECAST FOR THE GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT AS A WAVE              
THURSDAY...STRONGER SWRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND STRONGER            
FLOW INTO MN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.               
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
 SCOTT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
200 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2002                                                      
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PKG TO BE CLD CVR AND TEMPS IN NR TERM AND CHCS              
FOR PCPN OVR WKEND IN XTNDD. VSBL SAT PIX SHWG VORT CTR NOW OVR CTRL            
KY AT 18Z. RUC AND AVN HV BEST PLACEMENT WITH ETA ABOUT 75NMI TOO               
FAR E. MDLS KEEP THIS LO QSTNRY THRU 72H AND THEN FILL AS 50H CTRS              
STRENGTHEN OVR SW AND WRN ATLC. L/WV TROF MVS INTO NW US BY 120HR               
WITH A S/WV MOVG ACRS NRN PLNS AT SAME TIME. SFC HI FM GT LKS INTO              
NE US SHUD KEEP NE-ELY SFC WNDS ACRS FA THRU NR TERM WITH AT OR                 
SLGTLY BLO NRML TEMPS.                                                          
LOTS OF CU AND A FEW SHWRS DVLPG THIS AFTN OVR NE MO IN LO LVL                  
CNVRNGC. XPCT THIS ACTVTY TO WKN AND DISPT THIS EVE. MAY INCLD A                
THIS EVE PD IN CTRL AND ERN ZNS THO TO ACCT FOR PCPN PSBLTY.                    
MDLS INDCTG VERY LO POPS UNTIL WELL INTO XTNDD AND WL KP ZNS DRY PER            
GOING FCSTS. XPCT SUM SMALL VORT MAXES TO ROTATE ARND 50H LO WHICH              
COULD TRIGGER SUM WDLY SCTD SHWRS...MAINLY AFTN...BUT TRICKY TO                 
IDENTIFY VERY FAR IN ADVANCE.                                                   
MRF INCRSNG POPS LT IN XTNDD BUT RELUCTANT TO INTRO POPS THIS FAR IN            
ADVANCE FOR MAJ HOLIDAY WKEND WITHOUT MORE CONFIRMATION. TEMPS TO               
CONT NR NRML.                                                                   
.STL...NONE                                                                     
WDB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
250 PM EDT MON AUG 26 2002                                                      
CLOSED 500MB LOW NOW OVER KENTUCKY THE PROBLEM FOR THE WEEK. LATEST             
RUC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWING CLOSED 850MB LOW OVER NC/SC BORDER. SFC               
WIND FIELD SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH TO AROUND HATTERAS. NORTH OF                
THAT INVERTED TROUGH/WIND SHIFT...DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN TODAY AS               
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. ETA/AVN HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS             
DRYING TREND AND ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH QPF. AVN GUIDANCE LOOKED               
GOOD TO ME AS NGM WAS WETTER THIS RUN WHICH SEEMS INCONSISTENT WITH             
OBSERVATIONS.                                                                   
KEPT CWA DRY THROUGH TOMORROW. A STRAY SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE IN FROM               
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES TOMORROW EVENING. MAIN RAIN                 
LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AND WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AREAS.                                                       
EXTENDED...BEST CHANCE AT RAIN SEEMS TO BE THU BUT AVN NOW MORE                 
AGGRESSIVE WITH BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO NE PA. WITH                    
SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AROUND BUILDING RIDGE FROM WESTERN ATLANTIC A              
NICE CONVERGENCE ZONE SEEMS TO SET UP ACROSS PA FRI-SAT. LEFT CHANCE            
POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA IN FCST THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS               
MAINLY DRY. HOPEFULLY ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WON'T BE A WASHOUT.                
WORK ZONES ALREADY SENT AS PHLWRKMIS.                                           
.CTP...                                                                         
PA...NONE.                                                                      
DIRIENZO                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
250 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2002                                                      
PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CENTERED ON SURFACE HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ITS EFFECTS ON RAIN                
CHANCES THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN OUR FORECAST.                                     
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR                
HUDSON BAY...ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST                  
CANADA. OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SUBTLE BOUNDARY DETECTED            
FROM NEAR KMKT TO KMCW...TRIGGERING ISOLATED CONVECTION AS HAS BEEN             
THE CASE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING            
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN WI...WHICH COULD ALSO TRIGGER                   
CONVECTION. FURTHER WEST...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE                  
PLAINS...FUELING CLUSTERS OF TSRA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MAIN              
CIRCULATION CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...WHILE ANOTHER WAVE             
LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.                                             
AUGUST 26TH 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND THERE WERE NO MAJOR                 
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE FORECAST UPPER AIR OR SURFACE FEATURES.                
IN THE 60HR-84HR TIME FRAME...THE ETA DEPICTED QPF MAINLY OVER NORTH            
AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS COMPARED TO THE AVN.                  
DECIDED TO USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH...WITH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI...THEN RAIN CHANCES               
AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY.                                                           
RUC MODEL INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR EVENING CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL           
WI ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWARD MOVING LAKE BOUNDARY...SO INCLUDED                 
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THERE. RUC ALSO SHOWED POTENTIAL                  
FOR EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST MN. CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG                
BOUNDARY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD...TAKING            
IT INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...SO PLAN TO KEEP NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST           
MN ZONES DRY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT                  
EXPECTED...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALONG MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN               
RIVER VALLEYS.                                                                  
ALL OF THE MODELS TRANSIT THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA              
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT                 
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
TRANSPORT REMAINING WEST SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND                
WEST. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.            
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBILITY STILL APPEARS VIABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT           
INTO THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATED WEAK REFLECTION OF A SURFACE                    
TROUGH...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E CONVERGENCE...CROSSING THE                
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS ARX FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...PERSISTENCE                 
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...NEXT               
FEW DAYS SHOULD HAVE DAYTIME HIGHS FROM NEAR 80 TO THE MID 80S...WITH           
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. PREFERRED THE ETA MOS                 
GUIDANCE AND ETA 2M TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD TRACK RECORD OF LATE.              
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...SURFACE RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER                   
SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END             
OF THE WEEK. THUS...PLAN TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE FIRST              
HALF OF THE WEEKEND IN SPITE OF QPF DEPICTED BY AVN. WE RETAINED                
CONTINUITY OF NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN            
THIS DUE TO MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINING IN CANADA.                               
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
THOMPSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   wi