AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
140 PM EST THU JUN 22 2000                                                      
PRIMARY FCST ISSUE ARE POPS 4TH PERIOD AND BEYOND.                              
18Z SFC MAP ALG WITH SAT SHOWING DEEP LYRD CYCLONIC FLW CONTS ACRS              
FA SIG PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE AND MTRS SHOWING GUSTS TO 30KT AND                
30KT+ FLW MIXES DOWN. PROFILERS INDICATING LOW LVL WIND FIELD WKG               
UPSTREAM IN RESPONSE TO UPR TROF THRU E LKS OPENING UP AND SHIFTING             
EWD. RUC ADVERTISES THIS SYS TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE EWD LTR THIS PM              
AND THE GRADIENT ALG WITH IT.                                                   
12Z MODELS SIMILAR WITH LG SCALE CONUS FTRS THIS CYCLE. HWVR DETAILS            
JUST THE OPPOSITE ESP WITH SW TROF DIGGING THRU PAC NW. NGM/AVN                 
BOTH SEEM TO OVERDEVELOP THIS LD WAVE AND ARE TOO FAST WITH PROGGED             
AMPLIFICATION THRU EPAC. AVN ALSO LIKELY TOO FAR N AND E WITH ITS               
MONSTER MCV BY 12Z SAT OVR N LK MI. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS ALL 3             
HAD BACKED OFF ON QPF FOR SAT AND WILL CONT THIS TREND. BEST CHC NW             
IN PROXIMITY TO THETA-E RIDGE/LOW LVL JET AND SFC BNDRY SAT.                    
OTHERWISE SFC HIGH IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT AND FRI. WARMER TEMPS FRI               
WITH BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE OF NGM MOS WHICH              
IS WAY TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE WET GROUND ACRS CWA AND MUCH HIGHER             
THERMAL INERTIA.                                                                
.IWX...NONE.                                                                    
TEH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
921 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2000                                                      
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
NWS DATA NETWORK PROBLEMS HAVE KEPT 00Z DATA TO A MINIMUM, AND                  
LIKELY WILL LEAD TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NEW ETA/NGM RUNS HANDLING               
MCS'S OVER THE PLAINS.   LATEST GOES SATELLITE DATA INDICATE STRONG             
INSTABILITY OVER KS AND WESTERN MO AT THIS TIME.  THE MAGNITUDE OF THE          
INSTABILITY WAS UNDERFORECAST BY THE ETA MODEL.  STATIONARY FRONT IS            
NEAR AN OMA-LWD-IRK LINE.  WEAK CONVERGENCE LED TO A FEW STORMS S OF            
THE BORDER EARLIER, AND TCU HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS                
BOUNDARY. ALSO ONE LONE SHRA TRYING TO FORM W OF LWD.  RUC CONTINUES            
TO SHOW NICE 850 MB THETA E RIDGE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WILL                
TRANSLATE NE OVERNIGHT.  PREVIOUS 18Z ETA RUN SHOWED A NEW MCS TO               
DEVELOP OVER NE NEBRASKA LATER TONIGHT.  THIS STILL COULD HAPPEN,               
BUT 00Z SANGSTER AND 850/925 MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH SATELLITE              
TRENDS INDICATE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OVER NE SD SOON.  THIS AREA OF               
STORMS SHOULD MOVE SE INTO NW IA LATE TONIGHT PER 850-300MB                     
THICKNESS/MBE MOTIONS DEPICTED BY FORECAST HODOGRAPHS.  ALSO EXPECT             
LLJ AROUND 900 MB TO INCREASE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT            
IN SW IA.  THIS COULD RELEASE THE STRONG INSTABILITY, PRODUCING A               
BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT.  MAY ALSO RAISE TEMPS                
IN SOUTHERN IA AS DEW POINTS INCREASE ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUD SHIELD              
MOVING IN.                                                                      
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
KULA                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1025 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2000                                                     
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO DROP EVENING WIND WORDING. MEANWHILE...LOW/MID             
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WEST OF FORECAST AREA...0Z GRB               
SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MOISTURE TO 700 MB...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS                
PERSISTED ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER PER UPSTREAM RADARS. MODEL                     
SOUNDINGS/RH FORECASTS FROM 18Z MESOETA/21Z RUC SUGGEST THAT BAND OF            
850-700 MB MOISTURE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295-300K LAYER WILL             
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THUS...DESPITE             
CURRENT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF FORECAST AREA...WILL                   
CONTINUE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECASTS FOR ALL BUT EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.           
GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...WILL ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES UP            
A BIT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...AND WITH               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/EARLIER RAINFALL AND LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL                 
MENTION PATCHY FOG ALL GROUPS.                                                  
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1045 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2000                                                     
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING IN TIGHT                 
GRADIENT AROUND DEEP LOW TO THE NORTH. 12Z 850 MB PLOT SHOWED                   
WIDESPREAD 40 KNOT WLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES              
REGION. WITH GOOD MIXING GOING ON WILL UP THE WIND SPD FCST... BUT              
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES IT SHOULD LET UP A BIT BY MID                     
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW PULLS NE AND RIDGE APCHS.                              
LOW LEVEL RH WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL PLAGUE THE CENTRAL AND NRN            
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON... SO WILL KEEP THE MOSTLY                 
CLOUDY FCST GOING. CU/SC SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD IN THE SRN                 
COUNTIES... BUT SOME SCT-BKN DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STILL TAKE              
PLACE GIVEN CYCLONIC FLOW AND MID TO UPR 50 DEW POINTS. STILL CAN'T             
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE NRN SECTIONS AS NEXT VORT DROPS                 
SE...BUT BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE MT PLEASANT/CLARE AREAS EARLY.             
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
MEADE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1015 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2000                                                     
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW EAST OF HUDSON BAY WITH A             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A SECOND               
SHEARED-OUT VORT CENTER FROM LAKE WINNIPEG SOUTH INTO MINNESOTA IS              
PUSHING NORTH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW               
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A TROUGH HANGING BACK INTO                   
MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS THINNING IN SUBSIDENCE                 
BEHIND MAIN SHORTWAVE. RADAR LOOP SHOWS LINGERING SPRINKLES FROM                
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA HAVE ENDED.                                 
UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM KINL SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE                 
BELOW 700MB WITH CWPL A BIT DRIER. 12Z RUC INDICATES DRYING DURING              
THE DAY AS BAND OF 850-500MB QVECTOR DIVERGENCE BEHIND THE EXITING              
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN              
THE UPPER 50S AND 850MB DP 8-10C/ AND INSTABILITY /1000-850MB LAPSE             
RATES 8-9C/KM/ FOR CU DEVELOPMENT. 850/700MB TEMPS MINUS 1000/850MB             
DEW POINTS YIELD NEGATIVE VALUES...ALSO INDICATING CU. WILL CONTINUE            
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. WEAK-NEUTRAL QVECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS                    
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SHEARED VORT WILL NOT HURT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT                 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN DURING THE DAY AS LINGERING              
TROUGH OVER THE REGION PULLS EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN AS                  
RIDGE/COL WORKS INTO THE WESTERN CWA. CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS              
ARE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH EARLIER SUNSHINE SO WILL                 
NUDGE UP HIGHS A BIT.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JHB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
920 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2000                                                      
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING TOWARD NE MN AT A FASTER PACE IN LAST                 
COUPLE OF HOURS. BUT SAT PIX SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND 88D                 
MOSAIC INDICATES WEAKENING PCPN AS WELL. SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT             
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LINE IN ND...AND THIS                
ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD BY MORNING. WILL BRING IN PCPN TO               
W ZONES A BIT EARLIER...BUT WILL KEEP SCATTERED OR CHCY POPS THE                
SAME AS COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE COMPLETE. THE AIRMASS IS A BIT MORE              
STABLE IN OUR CWA PER RUC/LAPS MAPS. TEMPS HOLDING UP A BIT AS CI               
DECK SLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME MID LEVEL WAA EXPECTED BY                
MORNING AS WELL. WILL UP THE LOWS A NOTCH MOST ZONES.                           
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
SHIMON                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
345 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2000                                                      
SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER WEAK SFC RDG FM MISSOURI INTO THE DAKOTAS              
THIS AFTERNOON.  SCT CU ARE FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE ACROSS             
NRN MO WHERE MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS LI VALUES FROM -5 TO -8.  RUC                  
SOUNDING IN SAME AREA SHOWS DRY ADIABATIC FROM SFC TO 825MB...OR                
APPROX 5000 FT AGL...AND CAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG FOR SFC PARCEL.  WILL              
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AREA...BUT IT APPEARS NOW THAT WEAK                      
CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE            
CONVECTION.                                                                     
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ABOVE            
700MB THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE.                 
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN LOW LEVELS TONIGHT WHERE INCREASED RH AND OMEGA            
SUPPORT GOING FCST OF PARTLY CLOUDY.                                            
BEST SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WL BE FROM THE DAKOTAS EAST              
INTO IOWA/MN/WI TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY.  MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY             
A NEW SFC BNDRY SETTLES OVER NRN MO/SRN IA TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR                 
POSSIBLE FURTHER PRECIP.   ZONES EAST AND SOUTH OF STL METRO AREA               
APPEAR TO HAVE LEAST CHANCE OF PRECIP NEXT FEW DAYS.                            
GOING TEMPS DIFFER LITTLE FROM GUIDANCE...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES.                
IN THE EXTENDED...MRF AND ECMWF BOTH DROP SFC FRONT SOUTH ACROSS                
CENTRAL MO/IL BY SUN MORN...SO WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCE IN ALL ZONES             
UNTIL SFC HIGH MOVES IN OVER AREA BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                        
.STL...NONE                                                                     
LENNING                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
900 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2000                                                      
LARGE SWATH OF RA AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE               
CWFA PROGRESSING EWD ATTM. FORTUNATELY THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX HAS              
DIMINISHED THANKS TO STABILIZATION FROM RAFL. IR TOPS WARMING OVER              
THE LAST COUPLE HRS AS WELL SUGGESTS CONTINUED WEAKENING FOR MOST OF            
THE CONVECTION. CURRENT LIFTED INDICES...PER MSAS...ARE ONLY IN THE             
LOW-MARGINAL RANGE WHILE A DECENT AXIS OF -4C TO -6C LIS CAN BE                 
FOUND FROM N CENTRAL NC INTO NRN GA RESPECTIVELY. MAIN SFC TROF IS              
LAGGING BACK IN THIS GENERAL AREA AS WELL. MESO-ETA AND RUC SOMEWHAT            
SIMILAR IN TREKKING S/WV ESEWD TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD              
ACT TO SHIFT DEEPEST MSTR OFF THE COAST. UNTIL THAT OCCURS PLAN ON              
RETAINING 30 POP FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO MAKE A               
FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MINS...ESP IN THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAFL.             
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.               
CWF: SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...OTRW               
THE CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK.                                                   
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
PFAFF                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
850 PM CDT THU JUN 22 2000                                                      
UPDATED THE SW CWA ZONE TO TAKE OUT THE POPS AND JUST GO SCT TS FOR             
TNGT...AS NRN END OF CONVECTIVE LINE HAS STARTED TO MAKE IT INTO                
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWV OVR WRN                 
PLAINS...AND RUC HAS THE WAVE WEAKENING AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.              
IN ADDN...TS IS BUMPING INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HEADING                  
EAST...SO WL HAVE A HARD TIME DOING MUCH IN THE SHORT TERM.                     
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT LATER ACTIVITY FM ARND MIDNIGHT ONWARD. BOTH               
RUC AND MESOETA PROG A GREAT STRENGTHENING IN LLVL JET...40 TO 50               
KTS FM 900 TO 850MB BY MIDNIGHT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND WWRD.                   
COUPLED WITH SOME LIFT AHD OF LLVL BNDRY MOVG IN FM THE WEST...WOULD            
EXPECT TS TO DVLP AGAIN AHD OF THIS BNDRY LATER TNGT. THE DIR AND               
SPEED WIND SHEAR IS SOME OF THE BEST I'VE SEEN THIS YEAR...WHICH                
SHOULD HELP TO OVERCOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE LLVLS. ANY ELEVATED                 
CONVECTION WL THEREFORE FIRE...AND PSBLY SEVERE FM JAMES WWRD LATER             
TNGT. MESOETA CAPES AND HELICITY REALLY INCR SHARPLY BETWEEN 06Z AND            
09Z OVR THE WRN HALF OF CWA...SO WL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.                           
RMNS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WL MAKE IT TOWARD I 29                
VERY LATE TNGT. BUT SOME WL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER TO GIVE THE CNTRL              
PTNS OF CWA SOME TS LATE.                                                       
ZONES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE OTHERWISE...AND NO MORE UPDATES ARE              
PLANNED ATTM WITH THE DATA THAT I'VE LOOK AT.                                   
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
 FUHS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
313 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2000                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND POPS TODAY...                       
DIFFICULT FORECAST AHEAD WITH ONGOING CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH                
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING. KLNX VAD WIND                     
PROFILER SHOWS 45 TO 50 KNOT SOUTHEAST WINDS ENHANCING LIFT AND                 
PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE NEAR AND ALONG THE                  
SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH MID MORNING AS SHORTWAVE BETTER DEPICTED               
USING THE 06Z RUC MODEL MOVES ACROSS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 06Z SHOWED            
SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM LOW EAST OF PIR TO WEST OF VTN AND NORTH           
OF AIA AND TOR. 3 HOURLY PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 4 MBS OCCURRED WITH             
FRONT SOUTH OF TOR AND AIA BY 07Z.                                              
AVN MODEL OF CHOICE WITH CURRENT PROBLEMS AT NCF LIMITING DATA                  
INPUT.                                                                          
POSITION OF FRONT BY AFTERNOON TO IMPACT POPS AND TEMPERATURES WITH             
READINGS INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF FRONT. THE SLOW EROSION OF CLOUDS OVER           
THE NORTH CENTRAL WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ALSO. THE                  
06Z RUC POSITIONS THE FRONT FROM NEAR BASSETT TO IMPERIAL BY 18Z AND            
STALLS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE BE MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE             
BY NOON WITH ORGANIZE LIFT APPEARING TO LACK ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON                 
HEATING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN           
THE 50S WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN               
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST ALONG 8H FRONTAL POSITION WITH LITTLE SHIFT                
OCCURRING IN POSITION OF LOW LEVEL JET. WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR               
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE PANHANDLE.                                  
8H LOW LEVEL JET TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH BEST               
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF AREA. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN              
THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER FOR               
DRIER OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DRIEST AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH WITH                    
DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S NORTH CENTRAL WITH             
GUIDANCE CLOSE AND FOLLOWED FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.                               
ON SATURDAY THE STALLED OUT FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EXTEND ACROSS             
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR WITH AMBLE              
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS INITALLY OVER THE               
EASTERN PANHANDLE...THEN AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST SCATTERED                      
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.                                         
IN THE EXTENDED DRIER AIR TO RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS                      
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. THEN MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE           
PLAINS AND STALLS WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY              
AND TUESDAY.                                                                    
.LBF...NONE.                                                                    
TLK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2000                                                     
CONCERNS FOR THE AFTN ARE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS.                               
CLDS THICKENING RAPIDLY ACRS THE CWA ATTM AS DEBRIS FM AREA OF PCPN             
TO THE W CONTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FA. ACTUAL RAIN HAVING A MUCH                  
HARDER TIME DVLPG E HOWEVER AS SYS OUTRUNS 35KT JET THAT WAS FEEDING            
LOW LVL MSTR NEWD. KDLH RADAR SHOWS DRYING ALG LEADING EDGE ACRS N              
CNTR WI... THO OVERALL THERE IS SOME GRADUAL EWD PROGRESS OF 30DBZ              
RETURNS.                                                                        
12Z RUC/ETA HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE S/WV ASSOC W/ THIS PCPN AND               
FCST IT TO WEAKEN/SHEAR AS IT ZIPS ALG IN FAST ZONEAL FLOW.                     
HOWEVER...THEY ARE NOT SEEING THE PCPN OVR NRN WI AT ALL...SO THE               
FACT THAT THEY DOESN/T SHOW ANYTHING IN WI BORDER CNTYS THIS AFTN IS            
SUSPECT. WL RELY...FOR NOW...ON PERSISTENCE AND THAT FACT THAT ZONAL            
FLOW SUGGESTS THAT WHAT PCPN RMNS INTACT PCPN WL CONT TO MOVE E AND             
AFFECT MAINLY WI BORDER CNTYS. BARAGA/MQT ZONES SAY LATE ALRDY...BUT            
WL FINE TUNE WORDING EVEN MORE.                                                 
TEMPS SLOW TO RISE THIS MORG ALG THE WI BORDER AND THICKENING CLDS              
WON/T HELP. WL OPEN UP A RANGE FM GOG/ONT TO MNM...BUT LEAVE FCST               
UNCHANGED ELSEWHERE.                                                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DESROSIERS                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
658 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2000                                                      
QUICK UPDATE TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MI ALL DAY.               
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. RUC            
HOLDS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THRU THE MORNING...THEN CI SHOULD                   
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
FARINA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV                                                
845 AM PDT FRI JUN 23 2000                                                      
SHORT TERM...WESTERLIES TO REMAIN NORTH OF NEVADA WHILE UPPER                   
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE FLOW WEAK OVER NORTHERN AND                       
ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. SHORT WAVE THAT PASSED NORTH OF                 
NEVADA HAS PUSHED SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF                 
THE STATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA LINE UP              
WELL WITH LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTING THE BEST CONVECTION WILL BE               
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE                      
ISOLATED ACTIVITY NORTH. DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES                
TO CURRENT FORECAST.                                                            
.EKO...NONE.                                                                    
WHITWORTH                                                                       
N                                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA, SC                                           
955 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2000                                                      
DRIER AMS WL BLD INTO CWA NXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SFC TROF OF LOW PRES              
ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACRS AREA YTDA NOW XTNDS FROM VA CAPES TO XTRM           
NE SC. MAIN AREA OF PRECIP ATTM WL OFSHR. LEFTOVR MID-LVL CLDS                  
CONTINUE TO MOV EWRD AS DRIER AIR MOVS IN. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM                  
ETA...MESOETA...AND RUC...ALL SHOW FAIRLY DRY DAY TDA WITH ONLY SOME            
AFTN CU. SOUNDING FCST MAXES ARE IN THE 92-95 DEGREE RANGE. DEWPTS              
SHUD LVL OFF IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. SO MOSTLY             
SUNNY LUKS GD FOR THIS AFTN. ONLY CHANGE PLANNED IS TO MENTION LGT              
SE WNDS INSTEAD OF LGT AND VRBL.                                                
FCSTID = 22                                                                     
CAE   93  70  94  70 /   0   0  10  10                                          
AGS   94  66  92  67 /   0   0  10  10                                          
SSC   95  69  94  70 /   0   0  10  10                                          
OGB   95  72  94  71 /   0   0  10  10                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
BC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2000                                                      
WELL DEFINED VORT MOVING EAST THROUGH IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS KICKING            
OFF QUITE A TSTM COMPLEX. 12Z PROGS LOOKED A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH               
WITH THIS FEATURE BASED ON SATELLITE... BUT LATEST RUC APPEARS TO               
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT. BY 06Z...VORT SHOULD BE NEAR CHICAGO/SRN            
LK MI AREA. LOW TO MID 70 DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND               
FEED INTO THE COMPLEX. WARM FRONT IS SITUATED FROM ROUGHLY DBQ TO               
IND AT 19Z AND IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY NE TONIGHT. MCS SHOULD                
CONTINUE TO RIDE E/SE ALONG THE WARM FRONT... TAKING IT INTO AT                 
LEAST FAR SW MI AFTER MIDNIGHT. FEEL LIKELY POPS QUITE JUSTIFIED S              
OF I96 AND W OF I69 AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                             
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH PCPN MIGHT BE TONIGHT... AND             
LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL QPFS FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN                      
THEMSELVES MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. EARLIER PACKAGE HAD                 
LIKELY POP IN WRN SECTIONS NORTH TO LUDINGTON... AND WILL KEEP IT               
THAT WAY FOR NOW. SATELLITE SUGGESTS ANOTHER (WEAKER) VORT MAX                  
COMING EAST FROM SW MN AND ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS NOW                 
FIRING NORTH OF THE MAIN BATCH. FOR THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...             
HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT.                                      
WILL ALSO KEEP SATURDAY FCST UNCHANGED GIVEN THE MYRIAD OF MODEL                
SOLUTIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF VORTS COMING                  
THROUGH THE WLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS SETTLING IN...           
ANY SUNSHINE WILL GIVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SET CONVECTION OFF.            
SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE WITH TIME AND HARD TO DETERMINE            
WHERE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN LATER PERIODS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY              
WILL STILL BE PRESENT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDE THROUGH.            
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WITH CHC POPS SAT NGT AND SUNDAY.                           
MEADE                                                                           
EXTENDED FORECAST                                                               
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A SHORT WAVE TROF TO SWING THRU         
THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS PASSAGE WILL LIKELY TOUCH               
OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN NITE AND MONDAY. THE MODELS        
ALSO SHOW A MORE BROAD LONG WAVE TROF WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES                 
AFFECTING THE CWA THROUGH WED TOO. WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUE AND             
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF PCPN ON WED AS A VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH.              
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
335 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2000                                                      
IN LAST AFD MENTIONED THINKING ABOUT INCREASING POPS FOR BOTH                   
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  HAVE DECIDED ON FFA FOR MUCH OF CWFA BASED ON             
LATEST QPFERD PRODUCT AND COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  MSAS                 
CONTINUES TO SHOW LI VALUES NEAR -10 AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION AND            
RUC KEEPS THESE VALUES GOING INTO THE NIGHT.  MODEL PRECIP FIELDS               
NOT IN AGREEMENT BUT ALL SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT            
THIS EVENING ACROSS NERN MO/SWRN IL AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL                
MISSOURI INTO AND NE OF STL METRO AREA.                                         
AS FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THE MOVEMENT AND                      
INTERACTION OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES...SFC TROFS...AND OUTFLOW                     
BOUNDARIES.  ALL MODELS KEEP A SFC FRONT WELL NW OF CWFA EVEN BY SUN            
MORNING...SO WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION INTO MONDAY.                              
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS/LOWS AND LATER PERIODS.                                  
COORD WITH EAX...SGF...ILX...DVN.                                               
.STL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND                 
CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT.  SEVERE                
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483 FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND              
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS UNTIL 800 PM.                                                
LENNING                                                                         
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