FXUS65 KABQ 051811 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1111 AM MST FRI NOV 5 2004

.UPDATE...
BLUE SKIES POKING THROUGH THE CIRRUS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING.
WILL REDUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU AND ADD IT TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. IN ADDITION...WILL
INCREASE MAX TEMPS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND PLENTY OF MIXING ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO SOAR AND RH VALUES TO
DROP. WILL SEND UPDATED ZONES SHORTLY. DPORTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 300 AM MST FRI NOV 5 2004...UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG CALIFORNIA
COAST. SUSPECT AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY TEMPER WARMING TREND A BIT.

BOTH ETA AND GFS BRING A VIGOROUS VORT MAX AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS
WESTERN NM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ETA BONE DRY BELOW MOUNTAIN TOP
LEVELS AND GENERATES NO QPF WHILE GFS WETS UP LOWER LEVELS. NOT
READY TO ACCEPT THE WETTER SOLUTION EXCEPT TO THINK THAT THERE MAY
BE SOME VIRGA/HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GFS CONTINUES TRACK OF LOW THROUGH FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY...EXITING TUESDAY INTO KANSAS. GRIDS APPEAR TO BE BASED ON
THE SLOWER GFS AND WILL KEEP THIS TREND.  THEREAFTER GFS SHOWING
ALOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE POSITION OF THE MOSTLY CUTOFF LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST...AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
IT DOES STILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
LAST NIGHT. 18Z DGEX FOLLOWING A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TREND BUT ISOLATES
CUTOFF LOW WELL OFF THE WEST COAST. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE MODELS
DO NEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON................ 066/030 064/034 061 48000
GALLUP.................... 068/023 067/030 059 48000
GRANTS.................... 065/022 066/030 061 48000
GLENWOOD.................. 070/030 069/038 067 48000
CHAMA..................... 058/023 057/027 053 48000
LOS ALAMOS................ 059/030 061/031 058 48000
RED RIVER................. 055/020 056/026 054 48000
TAOS...................... 059/020 061/028 059 48000
SANTA FE.................. 060/030 063/031 060 48000
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 062/031 065/033 063 48000
ESPANOLA.................. 064/027 065/031 065 48000
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 064/039 066/041 064 48000
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 065/032 067/038 065 48000
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 063/038 065/038 063 48000
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 065/039 067/040 065 48000
SOCORRO................... 066/034 071/038 069 48000
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 059/030 060/033 060 48000
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 060/028 064/032 062 48000
CARRIZOZO................. 064/031 068/037 067 48000
RUIDOSO................... 059/029 063/035 062 48000
RATON..................... 066/026 067/030 062 48000
LAS VEGAS................. 068/031 069/035 064 48000
ROY....................... 065/030 069/035 063 48000
CLAYTON................... 070/039 073/040 065 48000
SANTA ROSA................ 066/032 071/037 067 48000
TUCUMCARI................. 070/036 073/041 068 48000
FORT SUMNER............... 067/034 072/040 068 48000
CLOVIS.................... 070/037 073/042 068 48000
PORTALES.................. 071/036 074/042 069 48000
ROSWELL................... 069/036 074/041 071 48000
&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$