AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
315 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT...                                                                      
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS NUDGED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE                        
WHICH HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  ATMOSPHERE            
HAS MOISTENED UP AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SO INTERIOR                  
STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WERE ALREADY APPROACHING THE WESTERN              
SECTIONS OF THE AREA.  EXPECT ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF EARLY EVENING              
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A STORM OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.                          
THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...THE STEERING IS DEEP              
ENOUGH (NEARLY 10 THOUSAND FEET ON CANAVERAL PROFILER) TO PUSH SOME             
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS INTO COASTAL SECTIONS.  CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME              
BOUNDARIES OFFSHORE BUT MOST DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED.  WILL              
CARRY A 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT POP ALONG THE COAST.                               
WED-FRI...                                                                      
TIGHT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL RIDE THE NRN                 
PERIPHERY OF THE DLM ATLC RIDGE THROUGH THU...SUPPORTED BY A +100KT             
NRN STREAM H25 JET.  CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD PUSH OFF THE CANADIAN             
MARITIMES LATE THU/EARLY FRI...WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A SECOND LOW            
PRESSURE CELL S OF GREENLAND AND ICELAND BY LATE FRI.                           
THE RESULT OF THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL BE A DEEP AND WELL SUPPORTED              
CYCLONE/SHORT WAVE TROF THAT GRADUALLY WILL SUPRESS THE DLM RIDGE               
AXIS BACK INTO FL THROUGH THE PD.  IN ITS PRESENT POSITION...THE                
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE DEEP S/ERLY WINDS FOR ONE MORE                  
DAY...A FLOW REGIME THAT FAVORS THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR ISOLD/SCT              
NOCTURNAL/MORNING SHRAS AND THE INTERIOR FOR SCT/NMRS AFTN                      
SHRAS/TSTMS.  AFTER THAT...MEAN STEERING FLOW WILL VEER TO THE S/SW             
AS THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE SWD...A FLOW REGIME THAT                  
FAVORS THE E FL COAST FOR AFTN CONVECTION.                                      
AIRMASS IS QUITE SOUPY WITH 12Z PW VALUES AOA 1.7" STATEWIDE...NEAR             
2.0" AT KXMR.  UPSTREAM...RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES H100-H50 MEAN RH               
VALUES ABV 60% OVER THE ENTIRE SW ATLC.  "DRIEST" AIR IS OVER THE               
CENTRAL GOMEX WITH MEAN RH VALUES ABV 50%.  GFS GUIDANCE HINTS AT               
THIS AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY FRI AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO            
THE SW...BUT THE "DRYING" THAT WILL OCCUR MOST LIKELY WILL BE OFFSET            
BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.  PRECIP PROFILE WILL FLIP FROM SCT            
COASTAL/LIKELY INTERIOR ON WED TO LIKELY COASTAL/SCT INTERIOR THU               
AS THE H85-H50 STEERING FLOW VEERS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE SFC FLOW.             
SAT-TUE...                                                                      
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THE DLM ATLC RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE SRN              
PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE SFC TROFS PINCH OFF OF             
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE UNITED                  
STATES.  WRLY H85-H50 FLOW IN THE MID LATITUDES THROUGH THE PD WILL             
ALLOW THESE SYSTEMS TO PUSH UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLC RIDGE...                
KEEPING IT SUPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS.  EXTENDED PRECIP PROFILE              
WILL REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER DIURNAL SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL              
ZONES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO HIGHLIGHTS.  WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO SW BY FRI AS THE RIDGE              
AXIS PUSHES S...BUT PGRAD WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY SUSTAINED WINDS ABV              
15KTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  WIND WAVE PDS WILL DECREASE AS               
THE WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE...BUT WILL REMAIN BLO 4FT.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  73  86  72  87 /  20  30  20  60                                           
MCO  72  88  72  88 /  20  60  20  50                                           
MLB  73  85  73  86 /  20  40  10  60                                           
VRB  73  86  72  87 /  20  40  10  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...LASCODY                                                                
MARINE...BRAGAW                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
930 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING'S KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE            
REMAINS JUICY WITH A PW OF ABOUT 1.75 INCHES. HOWEVER, LOW TO MID               
LEVEL WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NNW INDICATING THAT TLH IS NOW             
ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY             
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES, THE LATTER OF WHICH             
SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE THE WRN PARTS OF THE AREA AT              
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED SOME WEAK WARMING AT             
MID LEVELS, SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY.            
LOOKING AT THE KTLH RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM YESTERDAY, WE            
SEE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER OUR ERN ZONES COMPARED TO            
THE W. THE WRN ZONES WERE ALREADY UNDER NVA YESTERDAY, BUT THE MAIN             
CONTRIBUTER TO THIS PATTERN WAS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL                  
CLOUDS THAT DELAYED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN            
THIS AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT PRESENT TODAY, SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE             
QUITE AS MARKED A DIFFERENCE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE CURRENT                
POP FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING WITH LOWER CHANCES THAN                     
YESTERDAY AND LESS OF A DIFFERENCE FROM W TO E.                                 
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...AS INFERRED ABOVE, THE INHERITED POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD.               
ONE SMALL CHANGE WE ANTICIPATE IS RAISING THE POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT             
ACROSS THE ERN 1/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA TO LOW END LIKELY (60). THIS            
WOULD INCLUDE OUR SC GA AND ERN BIG BEND ZONES AND WOULD ACCOUNT FOR            
THE DPVA THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. THIS            
WOULD MESH WELL WITH OUR OFFICES TO THE E AND MOS CONSENSUS ALSO                
SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FOR TODAY, WILL TWEAK WINDS TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM                 
OBSERVED ELY FLOW TO ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY, THE               
OFFSHORE LEGS MAY SEE THE E WINDS HANG IN THERE MOST OF THE DAY, BUT            
WE ARE TALKING ONLY ABOUT 20 DEGREES DIFFERENCE FROM THE SE WINDS               
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. WINDS & SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR               
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. NO HEADLINES.                                                
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THIS                
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
SHORT RANGE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE UPPER LOW TO NE & WITH TROUGH TO EAST AT 12Z            
THIS MORNING. THEN TODAY MOST OF THE OMEGA LIFT WOULD BE OVER                   
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN            
AGAIN A BIT OF THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE SE U.S. WHERE SOME              
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY INCREASE POPS A BIT. BY FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS               
THIS ENERGY EAST OF CWA WITH MORE OF A SEA BREEZE SITUATION OVER THE            
CWA. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS FROM GFS INDICATE THIS WELL TOO.                
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.                              
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
GFS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH              
EXPECTED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION POTENTIAL...THEN ON SUNDAY MRF SHOWS             
LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS PATTERN OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SE U.S.             
WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY & SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION               
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON & EVENINGS. TEMPS REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 89 70 89 70/ 50 20 50 20                                                    
PFN 89 72 88 74/ 40 20 40 20                                                    
DHN 89 71 89 72/ 40 20 40 20                                                    
ABY 88 70 89 71/ 50 20 50 20                                                    
VLD 89 70 89 71/ 50 20 50 20                                                    
CTY 89 70 88 71/ 50 20 50 20                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCT                                                                             
WOOL/18                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
939 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGGED BY THE MODELS                
YESTERDAY HAS MATERIALIZED AND RESULTED IN AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND                
SHOWERS OFFSHORE ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS.  RUC MODEL               
DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL COASTAL TROUGH WHICH ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS            
LIGHT FLOW OVER LAND AND INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WAS                      
OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AS RIDGE AXIS HAS MIGRATED TO OUR NORTH.                
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DECREASE IN INTENSITY NEAR              
SHORE WITH MAINLY PATCHES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.  THE RATHER             
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD WILL MEAN            
THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OVER THE                
INTERIOR COUNTIES.  THINK THAT THIS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING AS               
THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE STILL RATHER COOL             
AT ABOUT -9.  SO LIKELY POPS OVER THE POPULATED PARTS OF THE                    
INTERIOR COUNTIES SHOULD BE OKAY BUT THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS            
OVER THE LOWER POPULATED EASTERN SECTIONS WHICH WOULD KEEP POPS                 
LOWER THERE.                                                                    
THINK THAT SCATTERED COASTAL POPS ARE IN ORDER INTO THE EARLY                   
AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED POPS ALONG CONVERGENCE LINES THE REST OF              
THE AFTERNOON.  WILL PROBABLY TREND POPS DOWN TO 30 PERCENT ALONG               
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE COAST.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WIND DATA OVER THE PAST 24 HRS FROM THE LCL DATA                      
BUOY/C-MAN NETWORK SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW S OF               
THE CAPE.  WINDS AT BUOY012/SAUF1 HAVE BEEN AOB 10KTS FOR THE PAST              
24 HRS WHILE BUOY009/LKWF1 HAVE SEEN THE CLASSIC AFTN SEA BREEZE                
SURGE OF 10-15KTS.  THIS FITS WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE                  
BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH.  WILL TWEAK WINDS DOWN A TOUCH OVER            
THE NRN LEG...WINDS OVER THE SRN LEG LOOK FINE ONCE                             
CONVECTION/OUTFLOWS WANE THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT 2-3FT SEAS ARE                
ALMOST ENTIRELY COMPRISED OF AN ERLY SWELL.                                     
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...LASCODY                                                                
MARINE...BRAGAW                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
945 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
SLIGHT UPDATE NEEDED FOR CURRENT PACKAGE...CURRENT RUC AND BUFKIT               
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP ERODING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST              
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO FORECAST            
FOR THAT AREA...AS CAPES APPROACH 1500 J/KG...THOUGH NO REAL TRIGGER.           
TEMPS...CLOUDS...WINDS FORECAST LOOK FINE FOR FIRST TWO PERIODS.                
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SCHOTT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1046 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                      
UPDATE FOCUSES ON DVLPG SHRA MOVING IN FROM W AND SW.                           
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MN AND WRN WI (AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE                
LOOP) BEING AIDED BY 800-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND UPR DIV IN RIGHT              
ENTRANCE REGION OF 130 KT JET OVER ONTARIO. 00Z RUC AND ETA MODELS              
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPR DIV AND 800-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS                  
SPREADING INTO UPR MI FOR THE OVERNIGHT. RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL QPF             
FIELDS SUPPORT GOING FCST OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS DVLPG TO SOUTH AND                
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG AND            
SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C OFF KIMT AND KMNM RUC SNDGS ALSO WARRANT            
KEEPING IN CHC OF TSRA FOR SRN COUNTIES.                                        
TEMPS AROUND 50 NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH STILL LOOK GOOD SO NO                   
CHANGES MADE THERE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.UPDATED...                                                                     
DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER             
SOUTH FASTER TONIGHT. WHILE THE CONVECTION BETWEEN MKG AND GRB HAS              
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...MORE                     
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR TVC SOUTHWEST TO NEAR MTW WI.                     
MEANWHILE THE SHORTWAVE MOVE MO CONTINUES TO MOVE NE TOWARD SW LOWER            
MICHIGAN.  THIS HAS HELPED THUNDERSTORMS FORM BETWEEN CHI AND MKE.              
THE RUC SHOWS THIS AREA BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE OVER CNTL LOWER MI              
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE SHEAR PROFILE DOES NOT SUPPORT SEVERE                
WEATHER... IT SURE LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE                  
GENEROUSLY SCATTERED AROUND BY 10 PM NORTH OF GRR. GIVEN PWAT VALUES            
OVER 1 1/2 INCHES...ANY OF THESE COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN.                 
HOWEVER WITH THEM MOVING NE AROUND 30 MPH...FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A            
BIG ISSUE EITHER.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.GRR...NONE                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE/STRENGTH THIS EVENING AND             
PCPN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED NORTH OF THE FRONT.                       
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND             
STRONG SE CONUS RDG LEAVING WSW FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE               
WRN LAKES. A H3 JET TO 120 KT EXTENDED FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN               
ONTARIO BTWN THE RDG AND MID/UPR LVL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE                
SFC...A FRONT/TROF EXTENDED FROM LOW PRES NEAR JAMES BAY TO CNTRL               
UPR MI TO NE NEB. THE TROF ALONG WITH LAKE BREEZE BNDRY FROM LK                 
SUPERIOR HAS TRIGGERED TSRA OVER N CNTRL UPR MI WHERE CAPE VALUES               
HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 2K J/KG. GENERALLY NE MOVEMENT OF HEAVIER                 
CELLS SEEMS LINKED WITH BATCH OF LIFT H3 JET UPR LVL DIV OR WEAK                
SHRTWV THAT SUPPORTED ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR.                 
TSTMS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH LK BNDRY ADVANCING INTO               
SRN MARQUETTE COUNTY. WEAKER LOW LVL CONV INTO S CNTRL UPR MI HAS               
KEPT STRONGER TSRA FROM DEVELOPING. INTERSECTION OF LK MI AND LK                
SUPERIOR BNDRIES NEAR SENEY SUPPORTED ISOLD BUT STRONG TSRA. FARTHER            
S...WEAKER CONV AND AND LESS MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT HAS MINIMIZED                  
COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LOW LVL WIND SHEAR OR 0-6KM                
SHEAR ALONG WITH HIGH FZLVL AND WBZERO HAS ALSO LIMITED HAIL OR WIND            
THREAT. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY TO NEAR 3K J/KG SRN               
UPR MI...SOME ISOLD PULSE-LIKE STORMS MAY HOWEVER PRODUCE HAIL NEAR             
SVR (0.75 INCH) SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.                           
LATER TONIGHT INTO WED...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE THIS                  
EVENING INTO SRN UPR MI. MDLS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED SHRA AND FEW                
TSRA MAY REDEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO MAINLY THE SRN HLF OF UPR             
MI.                                                                             
MDLS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RECENTLY IN HANDLING SUCH DETAILS AND                  
ETA/GFS STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF                
QPF. MAIN MECHANISM TO SUPPORT -SHRA WILL BE 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS              
AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE FROM JET STREAKS TO THE NORTH.                          
HOWEVER...SINCE THE ETA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH STRONG MID LVL                 
MOISTENING...IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AN AREA OF PCPN WOULD               
DEVELOP. MENTION OF ONLY TSTM CHANCE ALSO RETAINED AS EVEN THE GFS              
ONLY DEPICTS WEAK (300-500 J/KG) OF MUCAPE. INCREASING NRLY FLOW OFF            
OF LK SUPERIOR WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO NORTH UPR MI WITH MAX            
READINGS NEAR THE SHORE BLO ALREADY COOL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 50S.               
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING S SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.              
ANY LINGERING                                                                   
WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER GRT LAKES             
WITH CONFLUENT MID/UPR LVL FLOW DEVELOPING BTWN BTWN RDG INTO THE               
UPR MS VALLEY AND TROF OVER ERN CANADA. ACYC ENE FLOW WILL KEEP COOL            
DRY AIR FLOWING INTO UPR MI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR.                      
FRI...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WERE DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON WEST AND             
FRI NIGHT AS GFS/UKMET...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE ARE SLOWER WITH THE               
PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES IN A            
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN.                                                       
SAT THROUGH TUE...ECMWF/UKMET/GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH             
TIMING OF TROF/FRONT EXITING UPR MI SAT...WITH MAINLY MORNING                   
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER THE E HLF OF UPR MI. MAIN QUESTION FROM SUN              
INTO MON IS STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE MID LVL TROF MOVING OUT OF THE                
PLAINS TOWARD THE GRT LAKES. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS JUSTIFIED BY SUN              
NIGHT INTO MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW                      
DEVELOPMENT...PER UKMET WITH A SLOWER TROF PROGRESSION.                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1105 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM                  
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A              
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A LOW               
OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ANOTHER LOW OVER                
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE LOW OVER KANSAS IS CHANNELING LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE            
DEW POINTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE UPPER 60S THIS MORNING.            
305K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING ASCENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS               
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS                
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE  ARE TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.              
850-500MB Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWING CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL U.P.               
THIS MORNING. GFS AND ETA WILL BE PULLING THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE TO            
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE              
IS EXTENDS FROM Y62 TO KIMT THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO ALONG THE                
NORTH LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE             
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH                
CENTRAL U.P. AND ALONG THE SHORE ADJACENT TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN             
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ETA SHOWING MUCAPE AROUND 4000K J/KG THIS               
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. 125KT UPPER LEVEL JET               
MAX IS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REACH INTO THE              
75+ RANGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL                 
DIVERGENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALONG THE LAKE            
MICHIGAN SHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR             
WILL BE WEAK. THIS WILL NEED CAREFUL WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF                  
SEVERE WEATHER.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
910 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE                 
ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM                  
CLOSED LOW NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN CA. MEAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW              
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER             
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS                      
FLOW...RESULTING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE                
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TX INTO               
NORTHWEST MO. WEAK VORTICITY FEATURES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS                 
RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF               
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS                                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS RESIDES.                        
18Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION                
WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN OK/KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO AFTER            
06Z TONIGHT...AND NEW 00Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BE IN BASIC                      
AGREEMENT...SPREADING 850MB MOISTURE AXIS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO            
LATE TONIGHT. TOP/SGF EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY                  
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN DEEP MOIST                       
AIRMASS...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT EXPECT                        
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF                       
CWA...POSSIBLY REACHING KC METRO AREA TOWARDS MORNING. HAVE RAISED              
POPS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN            
TWO THIRDS OF CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES                 
PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE                 
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL             
BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED                        
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.                                                      
SEAMAN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
230 PM...                                                                       
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DEPICTING REMNANTS OF MCV OVER EASTERN                    
KANSAS...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTO NEBRASKA.  HASN'T                   
SPAWNED MUCH PRECIPITATION...ONLY A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME            
EASTERN KANSAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED AND SLIGHT CHANCES             
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.  TWO FEATURES WORTH               
NOTING...AN 850MB TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AS WELL AS UPPER              
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS.  850MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STAY TO              
THE NORTH...BUT VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS WILL BE THE            
FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  CHANCES                  
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY                 
ADVECTION...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW                     
AFTERNOON.  WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN...THE ENTIRE DAY WON'T             
BE A WASH. AS VORT MAX EXITS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FROM WEST TO              
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD...TEMPS            
LOOK IN GOOD ORDER...NO CHANGES MADE.                                           
WARM AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST FEW                      
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ETA...GFS AND ECMWF ALL                      
SHOWING A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD KEEP            
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH IN THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY                
TIMEFRAME...WITH FRIDAY THE MOST LIKELY DAY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL              
FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREE MARK. LATEST ETA RUN DISSOLVES CAP FAIRLY                  
QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING STORMS TO ERUPT ON CWA                      
DOORSTEP...WHILE GFS KEEPS LID ON. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN GOING                
FORECAST OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF STORMS ON FRIDAY.               
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GIVE AREA A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY                
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA               
THAT IS PROJECTED TO ROLL ACROSS FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW MOVING                
INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT TIME...WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN CANADIAN             
PROVINCES THEN WILL DIG A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE            
EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.                
THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END STRONG CONVECTION THREAT FOR            
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL PROVIDE AREA WITH WELCOMED REPRIEVE FROM             
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.                                                         
LEINS/SF                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
436 AM TUES...                                                                  
CHANGED LITTLE OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE            
TIMING POPS THROUGH THE WEEK. PRACTICALLY TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS              
OVER THE REGION. MCV OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS STILL TRYING TO WORK            
ITS WAY NORTH-NORTHEAST. SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FILLED IN              
SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED DURING             
THE DAY. SO HAVE LEFT POPS AT 30 AND PUSHED THEM FARTHER NORTH...AS             
GFS/ETA MODELS PROG THE VORT MAX TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE NORTH THAN               
NORTHEAST BEFORE SHEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS LOOK TO              
BE BACKING THIS UP. WILL NEED TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF PRECIP TODAY                
WITH NO CAP...CAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG AND MCV IN THE VICINITY.              
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE UNCAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SO ANY              
DISTURBANCE COULD SET OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. 20-30               
POPS SEEM WARRANTED. BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL                 
MISSOURI COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS                 
SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MISSOURI.                                                 
MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMP FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY.                    
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
913 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH GOOD DEAL OF               
DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER REGION. RUC SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATER            
TONIGHT OVER SRN TIER AND RDR DOES SHOW SOME SHRA OVER THE WATER TO             
THE S THAT ARE DRIFTING N. ONLY CHANGE TO ZONES WL BE TO ADD ISOLD              
SHRA/TSRA FOR SRN CST AND COASTAL WATERS. SMALL TEMP/DWPT SPREAD                
COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG AS CRNT FCST INDICATES.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME AREAS OF IFR CIG/VSBY WITH DENSE FOG FORMING            
AFT 07Z ESPECIALLY WHERE PCPN OCCURRED THIS AFTN/EVENING.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST S OF HATTERAS SHOULD DISSIPATE             
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT WINDS ARE VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT,            
SO ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO ADDRESS SHRA/TSTMS. BASED ON CURRENT                 
RADAR TRENDS WILL TAKE OUT MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE             
SOUNDS AND TONE BACK COASTAL WATERS TO ISOLATED FOR COASTAL WATERS S            
OF HATTERAS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RF/WS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                      
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT FORMED IN NE SD MOVED INTO WCNTRL/CNTRL MN             
THIS MORNING.  CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE ROOTED NEAR 700 MB...WHERE RUC            
SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THIS LEVEL OVER FAR SRN ND INTO                
CNTRL MN.  700 MB MOISTURE POOL REMAINS OVER SD INTO CNTRL MN                   
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING BUT DOES DECREASE LATER TONIGHT            
INTO WEDNESDAY.  THUS EXPECT TO SEE SOME ELEVATED PCPN TO CONTINUE              
OVER FAR SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN THROUGH THE AFTN THOUGH LIKELY MUCH               
LESS COVERAGE.                                                                  
OTHERWISE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO               
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN/TONIGHT.  THICKER CLDS IN SRN ZONES              
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S SO LOWERED HIGHS ACCORDINGLY.  NRN                 
ZONES LOOK GOOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
915 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.PUBLIC...STILL SOME HEAVY CONVECTION ONGOING JUST N AND W OF THE               
CWA THIS EVE. SFC AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER OVER S CENTRAL GA               
THIS EVE...WHILE MID AND UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.            
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FOUND IN NC...WHILE SEVERAL OUTFLOW              
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER AND PRESENT CONVECTION ARE FOUND OVER MUCH              
OF THE SE...INCLUDING THE CWA.                                                  
IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE ATLC                 
ALREADY THIS EVE...WHICH POINTS TO SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS AS A                  
POSSIBILITY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO SC OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED.             
EVE SOUNDINGS AT JAX AND CHS SHOW A GOOD SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH             
PWATS 1.6 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL VEER TO MORE SLY               
OVERNIGHT...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SC AND                  
NEARBY BERKELEY...DORCHESTER AND PERHAPS COLLETON COUNTIES HAVE THE             
BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY. WILL GO AHEAD AND CARRY               
30% POPS FOR THESE AREAS...AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE TO 20% OR LESS.             
WILL NOT REMOVE ENTIRELY AS THERE ARE STILL MANY BOUNDARIES THAT                
COULD KICK OFF ACTIVITY AGAIN.                                                  
BECAUSE MANY AREAS RECEIVED SOME RAIN TODAY WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO              
THE WX GRIDS OVERNIGHT. NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY                        
COVER...TEMPS AND WINDS ARE REQUIRED.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROF WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT            
HOURS PER RUC/META. THIS WILL KEEP A SELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THAT             
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO S AND SW THRU THE DAY WED AS THE TROF                    
DISSIPATES. WILL MAINTAIN SE WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO             
BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS A BIT IN THE GA WATERS AS BUOYS HAVE SHOWED                 
SPEEDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE...AND MODELS DEPICT A BETTER PRES GRAD              
OVER THE GA WATERS. WILL ALSO BUMP UP SEAS A BIT IN THE GA WATERS               
WITH ALL BUOYS SHOWING ABOUT 3FT WAVES AND RECENT SHIP REPORTS OF               
2-3FT WITHIN 20NM.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PM/JPC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
830 PM MDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER SE CWA IN CONJUNCTION                 
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. LATEST RUC SHOWING THAT STORMS                
WILL STICK AROUND THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL BE KEEPING             
CLOSE EYE ON SITUATION AS SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN SVR. SURFACE LOW                
STILL SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MN WITH FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NW             
IOWA AND ACROSS CENTRAL NE. FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO              
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS MOMENT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
.SD...NONE.                                                                     
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
826 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA HAVE SHIFTED EAST...BUT NEW            
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. EXPECT THIS            
TREND TO CONTINUE AND EXPECT IT TO FILL IN/TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS                
MOST OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. VERY STRONG                
WARM FRONT...AND VERY GOOD/JUICY FORCING IN THE 925MB-850MB                     
LAYER...WHICH IS SHOWN WELL ON THE NELIGH PROFILER. GFS AND RUC                 
CURRENTLY HANDLING THINGS BEST AS THE 18Z ETA WAS AGAIN POLLUTED BY             
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT AREN'T THERE...AND IS OFF BY ABOUT 30 TO             
50 DEGREES ON THE WIND DIRECTION IN THIS IMPORTANT INFLOW LAYER.                
THUS BELIEVE THAT THE FARTHER NORTH QPF OF THE GFS AND RUC CLOSER TO            
EXPECTED OUTCOME.                                                               
HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO CATEGORICAL ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90              
AND CHANGED QPF AMOUNTS TO CLOSER TO AN INCH IN THIS SAME AREA.                 
&&                                                                              
.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1035 AM MDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN            
COLORADO WITH FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH                    
DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND                
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND INTO SOUTHEAST SD. WINDS              
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S               
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA TO THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTH                   
CENTRAL SD.                                                                     
FOR THIS AFT...BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEB AND            
SE SD. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY ACROSS                
WESTERN NEB AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD THIS AFT. RUC PROGS                 
ELEVATED CAPE OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS               
AFT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM IEN             
TO PHP AND POINTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A STORM            
OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER TODD...MELLETTE...AND              
TRIPP CO LATE THIS AFT AND EARLY THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD             
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFT...WITH SOME BREAKS            
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HAVE TWEEKED HIGH TEMPS               
DOWN A BIT AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY            
COOLER THAN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER            
70S.                                                                            
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                         
&&                                                                              
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
.SD...NONE.                                                                     
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
220 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENTLY...WARM/SULTRY CONDS FOR JUNE...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH             
A VERY SOUPY AIR MASS OVER ECFL...ALLOWING FOR PROLIFERATION OF                 
NOCTURNAL COASTAL MARINE SHRA...WITH A FEW POPPING OVER LAND ALONG              
THE TREASURE COAST. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS FROM                 
TODAY IS NOW ANALYZED BY THE RUC AS A DEFORMATION ZONE/COL ACROSS               
THE ERN GOMEX/WRN FL. OF NOTE IS THE 205AM TWDAT...WHICH ANALYZED               
A T-WAVE EXTENDING NWD FROM WRN CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS.                          
TODAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH HAD MIGRATED NORTH OF FL LATE TUE            
WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED BACK SWD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AS NRN             
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRIVES A COLD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.             
AFTER BUMPING UP POPS A SMIDGE TUE MORNING...WAS SOMEWHAT SURPRISED             
THAT PRECIP COVERAGE  WASN'T QUITE AS GENEROUS AS I FIGURED...OWING             
TO THE EARLY SHRA/TSRA KICKING AN OUTFLOW INLAND...WHICH ACTED MUCH             
LIKE THE ECSB...STABILIZING THE LOCAL AIR MASS OVER THE COASTAL COS.            
ENVISION A SIMILAR SCENARIO AGAIN TODAY...SO DON'T PLAN ON STRAYING             
FROM THE CURRENT SPREAD OF 40/60. WEAK H85-H50 WINDS WILL BE VEERING            
A LITTLE TO S-SSW ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES...BUT ALL IN ALL...BDRY AND           
CELL PROPAGATION WILL BE DETERMINANTS OF STORM FORMATION/MOVEMENT.              
THU...AXIS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE                
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY AT THE                
SURFACE AND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT STEERING LEVELS. WEAKNESS IN THE                
LONGWAVE RIDGE MARKED BY A WEAKENING VORT MAX WILL TRACK TO A                   
POSITION NEAR JAX. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG WITH ADDED DYNAMICS                
WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR            
AREA. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING                 
...STRONG WINDS AND AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT/TORNADO...PARTICULARLY               
ALONG THE COLLISION WITH THE ECSB.                                              
FRI-SUN...PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SUGGESTED THAT DRIER AIR OVER            
THE GOMEX REGION WOULD ADVECT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PENINSULA. AS                
EXPECTED...LATEST RUNS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THIS DRYING.                    
MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC                  
STATES WILL HELP TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL WESTERN                   
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO GENERATE                 
TYPICAL CONVECTION ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.                                  
MON-TUE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE                   
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD WRT THE               
TRACK OF THE ANTICYCLONE. GFS/NOGAPS TAKE IT EAST IN A PROGRESSIVE              
PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF SLIDES IT SOUTH...RE-ESTABLISHING THE                   
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT ONSHORE FLOW. EITHER WAY...PWATS               
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TWO INCHES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FLOW AROUND 10 KT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHWEST BY THU             
NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS OF 2-3 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.              
MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING ALONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG            
WINDS/ROUGH SEAS AND AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT IN STORMS OVER THE                  
NEARSHORE WATERS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  86  72  86  72 /  40  30  60  30                                           
MCO  88  72  88  72 /  60  40  60  30                                           
MLB  86  73  86  72 /  40  10  60  40                                           
VRB  87  72  87  72 /  40  10  70  40                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI                                                          
LONG TERM...HIRSCH                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
500 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEATHER DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE SHIFT HAS ME RUNNING QUITE                 
LATE. STILL A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH                
FRONTAL PLACEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH LOCATION OF HEAVIEST                
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE              
SMALLER DETAILS SO WILL CONTINUE TO RELY MORE ON BIGGER PICTURE. IN             
THE SHORT TERM...FRONT MADE IT INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST...BUT LACK            
OF SFC PRESSURE RISES NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND SOME MIXING OF THE LOW              
LEVEL JET OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST HAS ALLOWED THE FRONT TO              
MOVE BACK NORTH A BIT. RUC DID A LITTLE BETTER WITH THIS THAN OTHER             
MODELS. BEST ELEVATED FORCING CONTINUES TO BE JUST NORTH AND WEST OF            
CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER S MN WHERE BEST DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE                  
PERSISTS IN THETA-E MAX. TROUBLE TODAY WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT              
WILL MAKE IT AND WHERE WILL CONVECTION INITIATE ALONG IT. IN                    
ADDITION...SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING UP INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL ALSO            
SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO THE SE CWA...THE                      
NORTHWEST CUTOFF OF WHICH WILL BE TRICKY TO DEFINE. AS FAR AS                   
FRONTAL CONVECTION IS CONCERNED...LOOKS LIKE WEAK WINDS FIELDS AND              
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE                       
STORMS...MORE OF AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TYPE ENVIRONMENT. OR IF               
LOW LEVEL CAPES WHERE SUFFICIENT...POSSIBLY SOME LAND SPOUT                     
POSSIBILITIES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GREATEST THREAT WILL                  
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKE THAT WHICH               
OCCURRED LAST EVENING. FORTUNATELY CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL NOT             
HAVE A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL                
ONLY BRUSH SE IA. IN ADDITION... MODELS PROG WEAK INSTABILITY AND               
WEAK LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN GENERAL HAVE WENT WITH HIGHEST POPS            
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PCPN DECREASING OVERNIGHT DUE TO A              
LACK OF ADVECTIVE FORCES. ETA AND AVN DISAGREE ON WHERE WARM FRONT              
WILL SET UP AND HOW FAST IT WILL LIFT NORTH THURS AND FRI. AVN WAS              
THE FURTHEST SOUTH AND THE SLOWEST TO LIFT IT NORTH BUT 06Z RUN OF              
ETA CAME A LITTLE MORE IN LINE WITH THE AVN. DOES LOOK LIKE AN                  
ELEVATED AREA OF CONVECTION COULD BREAK OUT EARLY THURSDAY ALONG THE            
ELEVATED FRONT. ONCE AGAIN THE INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT BUT                     
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE DO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE HALF             
OF THE CWA. THE FAR NE ZONES MAY REMAIN RATHER COOL THURS AFTERNOON             
IF PCPN DOES DEVELOP AND PERSIST THUS KEEPING THE SFC BOUNDARY A                
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SEVERE            
WEATHER POTENTIAL DAY THIS WEEK. PRETTY CLASSIC SETUP WITH                      
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH LIFTING TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND DEPENDING ON            
WHERE THE WARM FRONT END UP... POTENTIAL FOR A TRIPLE POINT TO MOVE             
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY THE DEEPER LAYER            
SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. SOME QUESTION ON              
HOW QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AND DIMINISH TORNADO                   
POTENTIAL...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS HIGHEST RISK AREA WOULD BE              
OVER THE NE ZONES. LOOKS LIKE A WEDGE OF VERY WARM H850 AIR WILL                
LIFT INTO THE S CWA ACCOMPANIED BY 40KTS OF FLOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH            
FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY ZOOM INTO THE 90S OVER THE S DEPENDING ON              
CLOUD COVER. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY               
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA                             
345 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE                 
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A GENERAL INCREASE             
IN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAUSE A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY OVER MOST LOCATIONS            
TODAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR POPS TODAY...             
BUT WILL CARRY 20 PERCENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BASED ON THE RUC             
WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER/PW/ BETTER.                   
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND                  
WESTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY...SO WILL BRING POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT OVER            
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. MOS GOES              
DOWN TO 20 PERCENT FOR POPS ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE...30             
PERCENT...SINCE PW REMAINS GENERALLY IN THE 1.6 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE               
WHICH IS ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO             
BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                        
THE GFS WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH                 
MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF WAIT UNTIL                 
MONDAY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A TROPICAL SURGE             
OF MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF                 
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH ANY DISTURBANCE                
ALOFT. THE EXTENDED GFS BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE              
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY THEN DRIVES IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA               
LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE            
EASTERN CONUS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT SINCE THE MODELS              
ARE OFTEN TOO AGGRESSIVE THIS FAR OUT. WILL INDICATE A CONTINUED                
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES              
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS...                                                    
MCB 90 71 90 71 / 20 10 30 20                                                   
BTR 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 30 10                                                   
MSY 90 75 90 75 / 20 10 20 10                                                   
GPT 88 74 88 74 / 20 10 20 20                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
415 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN                    
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE WEST COAST.                
OBSERVED +110KT 300MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BETWEEN                
THESE SYSTEMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO               
NORTHERN LOWER...EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO COLORADO. REGIONAL RADARS             
SHOW CONVECTION MAINLY ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTH DAKOTA              
TO WISCONSIN...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT FROM WESTERN LOWER            
TO NORTHERN HURON.                                                              
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE WITH PRECIP/SEVERE                 
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. ETA/GFS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT              
SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT FEATURE TIMING DIFFERENCES               
THAT IMPACT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SURFACE FRONT             
DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE BY 12Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. ETA IS A BIT STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE             
SURFACE HIGH...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF COLD               
FRONT. BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAY THE TWO MODELS HANDLE CONVECTION            
ALONG THE FRONT THOUGH...WHICH LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN                
PLACEMENT/SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.                                            
FOR TODAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA.                  
BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL                
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY CURRENTLY             
AVAILABLE TO GET STORMS GOING AHEAD OF IT. 03Z RUC ANALYSIS/FORECAST            
SHOW THE CAP IN PLACE EARLIER WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...BUT              
STILL TRYING TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 600MB TEMPS ONLY                  
SLOWLY DROP FROM 2C ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN WHY STORMS             
ARE HAVING SUCH A HARD TIME MAKING IT EASTWARD. HOWEVER AS A                    
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPROACHES THIS MORNING               
AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...WE SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE TO                 
EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA. WILL START WITH NUMEROUS TSRA IN THE NORTH               
WHERE STORMS ARE TRYING TO FIRE NEAR THE FRONT...AND START WITH                 
SCATTERED IN THE SOUTH. A FEW CELLS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE            
SOUTHERN CWA...HENCE THE CHANCE POPS INITIALLY. WILL THEN KEEP                  
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER                     
INSTABILITY/DROPPING HEIGHTS AND THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING.                 
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR TODAY. LAPSE             
ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES OVER 1000J/KG CAPE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL              
ONLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEAR BREAKS              
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. CONVECTIVE            
DEBRIS IS MAINLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WE SHOULD               
SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH COULD HELP            
TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AGAIN. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL                   
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO OVER 2000J/KG CAPE/LIS              
DOWN TO -5C. WIND FIELD IS STILL PRETTY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM               
SHEAR INCREASES TO 30M/S BY AFTERNOON. 850MB JET ALSO PICKS                     
UP...WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 30KTS. COULD SEE SOME MULTICELL                
STORMS...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM PULSE                  
SEVERE. WIND/HAIL BOTH LOOK POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH FREEZING LEVELS UP             
TO 14-15KFT. STORM MOTION IS LESS THAN 20KTS...AND ORIENTATION TO               
INFLOW SUPPORTS BACKBUILDING/TRAINING ECHOES...WITH LOCALIZED                   
FLOODING CONCERNS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO ABOUT               
1.75 INCHES /ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT DTX/...SIMILAR TO WHAT              
WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM AT GRB/MPX LAST NIGHT.                                    
FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME APPARENT. ETA                   
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE                         
FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT...AND              
KEEPS IT GOING ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GFS ON THE                 
OTHER HAND DEVELOPS AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY THIS EVENING...WHICH CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE FEED INTO THE                 
STATE AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.                
GIVEN WHAT IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING                   
TONIGHT...EVENING NORTH/ALL NIGHT SOUTH.                                        
SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER 850MB               
FRONT LINGERS BACKS NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL                 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE              
ELEVATED FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF            
OF THE CWA THURSDAY...AND CUT BACK FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.                
THURSDAY NIGHT IS VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES TRY TO                  
DEVELOP ALONG COMPLEX...WHICH SHOULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ETA            
IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER INSTEAD                    
DEVELOPING STORMS FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.                 
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SPIN               
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD.               
WESTERN LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING            
RATHER BROAD AS SOME ENERGY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST.                     
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHORTWAVES AND SHIFTS                 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO DISPLACE THE              
BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK TO THE NORTH. BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT/MOISTURE                
FLUX ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNDER FALLING HEIGHTS...WITH THIS                   
ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE                      
DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE FRONT MOVING BACK INTO              
THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE STILL TRIES TO HOLD ON ACROSS NORTHEAST                  
ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE TSRA ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHWEST CWA...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE EVERYWHERE BEGINNING FRIDAY                  
NIGHT. CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY             
FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
445 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PARSING THROUGH A LOOP OF RUC 850 MB THETA-E WARM ADVECTION IMAGES              
DEPICTS NICELY THE FORCING THAT GENERATED THE MCS ACROSS SOUTH                  
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE LAST EVENING. 06Z RUC SHOWS THE 850 MB THETA             
E ADVECTION WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AND ACTUALLY REPLACED              
BY COLD THETA E ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PART OF CWA LATER                 
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF RAPIDLY THIS              
MORNING. HAVE MODELED PRECIPITATION TIMING TODAY VERY CLOSELY TO 00Z            
ETA-BUFKIT HOURLY PRECIPITATION OUTPUT. SOUTH CENTRAL MN LIKELY TO              
SEE A CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL NEAR IOWA BORDER MUCH OF TODAY AS 850            
MB THETA E WARM ADVECTION...ALBEIT WEAK...RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON IN             
THAT AREA. KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CWA TODAY IN DEFERNCE              
TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO JET MAX. IN THE                
TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT               
INSOLATION AND THEREFORE VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. SLASHED              
PREVIOUS MAXES FOR TODAY...AND EVEN WENT A LITTLE BELOW VARIOUS AND             
SUNDRY MOS VALUES WHICH DID CATCH THE "MUCH COOLER" TREND.                      
MIXED SIGNALS FOR COMING NIGHT WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF                    
NORTHWESTERN ONT JET MAX CONTINUING TO FORCE ASCENT WELL NORTH OF               
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT. WENT WITH            
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS EXCEPT NO WX FAR NORTHERN CWA.                     
INTERESTING PATTERN SHAPING UP THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE                  
TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA. FORCING FROM                
SAID WAVE SHOULD START TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION AS THURSDAY WEARS              
ON...WITH INCREASING LIKEHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT            
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE                  
DRAMATICALLY BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING US TO TRANSITION FROM OUR                     
EXISTING HEAVY RAIN PATTERN IN A SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN. NOTE 00Z               
ETA 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AT REDWOOD FALLS INCREASES FROM 23 KTS AT 06Z             
WED TO 40 KTS BY 18Z FRI.                                                       
LONGER TERM...INTRODUCED POPS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN SERN CWA              
AS SECONDARY TROF LIFTS OUT OF MTNS. SEEING THIS REFLECTED IN                   
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS (CONTAMINATED VIA FEEDBACK)...AND ALSO GFS/NCEP              
ENSEMBLES. REST OF EXTENDED LOOKED ON TRACK. MEAN                               
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES SUGGEST A COOLER THAN NORMAL WEEK NEXT WEEK.                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NAISTAT/BINAU                                                                   
NOTE...THE AWIPS IDENTIFIER FOR THE CODED CITIES FORECAST ISSUED BY             
THE NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN WILL CHANGE FROM CCFMSP TO CCFMPX                
EFFECTIVE AT 1200 UTC ON JUN 15, 2004, WEATHER PERMITTING. THE WMO              
HEADER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL REMAIN FPUS43 KMPX                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
409 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW                
DAYS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND              
SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING                 
NORTH THROUGH PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS TREND SHOULD                   
CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT                
EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH CAPE LESS THAN 1500 J/KG AND                      
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE                
1.5"...SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A              
FLOOD WATCH. NO BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TO FOCUS ON AND FLASH FLOOD                
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. LOWEST VALUES...RIGHT            
AT 2 INCHES...ARE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI            
WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE LOWER.                                          
ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY.              
LOWERED TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO MORE FROM THE EVENING UPDATE.                
SHOULD MAYBE HAVE GONE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI               
COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST. THINKING               
THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR                   
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE                
UPPER 70S THERE.                                                                
ETA AND GFS BOTH PROG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION              
OVERNIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN POSITION. ETA LINES UP QPF UNDER                
SHEARED OUT VORT LOBE OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND IS A                  
LITTLE MORE GUNG-HO WITH POPS...HOWEVER QPF IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY LOW.             
GFS BRINGS QPF ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. FOR NOW HAVE              
INCREASED POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD.                            
ALSO BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE            
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AND               
QUITE UNSTABLE.                                                                 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES MADE.                
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
910 PM TUE...                                                                   
EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE                 
ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM                  
CLOSED LOW NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN CA. MEAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW              
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER             
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS                      
FLOW...RESULTING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE                
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TX INTO               
NORTHWEST MO. WEAK VORTICITY FEATURES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS                 
RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF               
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS                                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS RESIDES.                        
18Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION                
WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN OK/KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO AFTER            
06Z TONIGHT...AND NEW 00Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BE IN BASIC                      
AGREEMENT...SPREADING 850MB MOISTURE AXIS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO            
LATE TONIGHT. TOP/SGF EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY                  
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN DEEP MOIST                       
AIRMASS...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT EXPECT                        
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF                       
CWA...POSSIBLY REACHING KC METRO AREA TOWARDS MORNING. HAVE RAISED              
POPS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN            
TWO THIRDS OF CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES                 
PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE                 
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL             
BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED                        
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.                                                      
SEAMAN                                                                          
230 PM...                                                                       
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DEPICTING REMNANTS OF MCV OVER EASTERN                    
KANSAS...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTO NEBRASKA.  HASN'T                   
SPAWNED MUCH PRECIPITATION...ONLY A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME            
EASTERN KANSAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED AND SLIGHT CHANCES             
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.  TWO FEATURES WORTH               
NOTING...AN 850MB TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AS WELL AS UPPER              
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS.  850MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STAY TO              
THE NORTH...BUT VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS WILL BE THE            
FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  CHANCES                  
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY                 
ADVECTION...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW                     
AFTERNOON.  WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN...THE ENTIRE DAY WON'T             
BE A WASH. AS VORT MAX EXITS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FROM WEST TO              
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD...TEMPS            
LOOK IN GOOD ORDER...NO CHANGES MADE.                                           
WARM AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST FEW                      
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ETA...GFS AND ECMWF ALL                      
SHOWING A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD KEEP            
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH IN THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY                
TIMEFRAME...WITH FRIDAY THE MOST LIKELY DAY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL              
FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREE MARK. LATEST ETA RUN DISSOLVES CAP FAIRLY                  
QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING STORMS TO ERUPT ON CWA                      
DOORSTEP...WHILE GFS KEEPS LID ON. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN GOING                
FORECAST OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF STORMS ON FRIDAY.               
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GIVE AREA A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY                
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA               
THAT IS PROJECTED TO ROLL ACROSS FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW MOVING                
INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT TIME...WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN CANADIAN             
PROVINCES THEN WILL DIG A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE            
EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.                
THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END STRONG CONVECTION THREAT FOR            
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL PROVIDE AREA WITH WELCOMED REPRIEVE FROM             
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.                                                         
LEINS/SF                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
435 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL HANGING AROUND SRN PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY THIS            
MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY MAINLY N OF BNDRY. DEEP WRN TROUGH STILL                 
DIGGING THRU CA WITH IMPRESSIVE JET STREAK COMING INTO THE MIX INTO             
SRN CA. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVR PLAINS IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON FRONTAL            
PROPOGATION IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...AND A GOODLY PART OF IT IS IN                   
CONVECTIVE PUSH ATTM.  SHORT TERM PRETTY MUCH IS CHARACTERIZED BY               
HANDLING DEMISE OF MCS OVR ERN SD.  CRNT ACTIVITY PRETTY MUCH                   
FEEDING ON LOW LVL MSTR TRANSPORT INTO IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED                      
BNDRY...WITH SFC BNDRY MUCH LESS ACTIVE FM S OF KSPW TO KSUX TO NR              
KOFK...LKLY DUE TO WARMER MID LVL TMPS. NOT EXACTLY A HIGH CONFIDENCE           
FORECAST AGAIN.                                                                 
LLJ NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING...BUT A NICE EFFICIENT FLOW            
OF MSTR INTO ELEVATED BNDRY. HOWEVER...THIS WKNS APPRECIABLY 12Z-15Z            
TIMEFRAME.  CURRENT MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY ON SW FLANK OF MCS WHICH              
IS EXPECTED WITH SUCH PATTERN. MRR PROFILER FOR LONGEST TIME WAS                
BETTER WAA PROFILE AND NOW IS SHIFTING TOWARD NLG...SHOWING VEERING             
UNDERWAY AND WL AID TO RAPID END OF COMPLEX DURING MORNING. AFTER               
THIS...DO NOT SEE A LOT TO FOCUS CONVECTION...BUT WL HAVE TO WATCH              
FRONTAL BNDRY LTR IN DAY ONCE AGAIN AS MID LVLS REMAIN ABOUT WHERE              
THEY WERE YDA AFTN...AND ALSO WHAT THE TRAILING VORT CENTER ACRS                
SWRN NE WHICH LIFTS NE INTO NERN NEBRASKA LTR IN AFTN...ENOUGH TO               
POTENTIALLY ENHANCE PCPN IN LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS. RISING HTS              
SEEM TO REFOCUS BEST CONVERGENCE/DYNAMICS BACK TO W OF CWA INTO TNGT.           
WK FLOW WL MEAN SLOW MOVERS...TIED TO BOUNDARIES.  RUC IS BIG                   
MONKEYWRENCH...WITH FRONT FORECAST TO LIFT NWRD THRU MIDDAY TO NR               
KFSD...WHICH WOULD INVALIDATE TMP FCST IN BIG WAY...AND WOULD                   
NECESSITATE DO OVER ON PCPN DISTRIBUTION. WL GO WITH CONTINUITY                 
THOUGH...AND LET FRONT WANDER SLOWLY SWRD...WITH HIGHS LKLY BY EARLY            
AFTN UNDER TEMPORARILY THINNING CLDS. WL KNOCK TMPS WAY BACK DUE TO             
LARGE STABLE COLD POOL AND NORTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO COME ALONG TO                
BREAK INVERSION. AGAIN WL BE QUITE A GRADIENT ACRS PARTLY SUNNY WARM            
SIDE AND CLOUDY COOL SIDE TO FNT.                                               
ADDITION OF MSTR TO STABLE LYR MAKES FOR AN FOG CONCERN TONIGHT AS              
FLOW TURNS MORE ELY AND FINALLY SELY AS STARTS TO WARM AGAIN ALFT.              
WL HOLD OFF NOW WITH DECENT GRADIENT AND SHUD BE LOOKING MORE AT                
2-4SM STUFF OVERALL...BUT WL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS              
IF THINK A MILE OR LESS WL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MCS DEVELOPMENT              
LKLY TO BE W OF LAST NIGHT...AND PERHAPS TO S AND SE AS WELL WITH               
APPROACH OF SUBTROPICAL PLUME...BUT BY FAR BEST THETA-E SUPPORT IS              
TO W. GUTSY MOVE WOULD BE TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY FM NERN AREAS.                
ON THU...WMFNT MOVES NWRD AS DEEPER SLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND            
SOME JET ENERGY COMES INTO THE WRN PLAINS WITH WRN TROUGH. A FAIR               
AMT OF MSTR ADVECTION AND WK ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF SFC FRONTAL BNDRY.            
HOWEVER...SEEMS TO GET MORE FOCUSED THROUGH THE DAY TO THE N...AS               
MID LVL TROUGH LIFTS TO N. SFC FNT WL COME INTO FAR SRN CWA AGAIN               
WITH DECENT SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION THRU MUCH OF NE AS LOW DEEPENS            
IN LEE TROUGHING ACRS ERN CO AND SWRN NE. THIS WL SET UP A NICE DRY             
SLOT INTRUSTION FOR LTR THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND DYNAMICS LEADING                
THIS SHUD SET UP A GOOD LKLY SCENARIO FOR TSRA. BEST SEVERE THREAT              
IN SHORT TERM LKLY TO COME WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT TIMING IS NOT IN             
THE BEST FAVOR...AND WOULD SHOW GREATER PREFERENCE EARLY IN TSRA                
LIFE CYCLE TO SW OF CWA. SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL A DISTINCT                
THREAT THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...WITH A TRAINING TYPE WINDFLOW.                
WL TAKE MIXING ON FRIDAY TO THE MAX BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH                    
CONSERVATIVELY WITH DEEPER WLY COMP TAKES WELL INTO 80S. GFS HAS                
BEEN IDENTIFYING A CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL ALG FRONTAL               
BNDRY WHICH WL LINGER E OF I29 EARLY AFTN. IF SLOWER...COULD BE SET             
UP FOR SOME SCT STRONG STORM ALONG CDFNT/DRYLINE DURG AFTN IN ERN               
CWA.                                                                            
FROM THIS POINT ON...EXTENDED RANGE FCST IS FAIRLY QUIET. WL HAVE               
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS IN LINE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AS                    
TRAILING KICKER WAVE WITH NICE JET SWINGS BY.  WHILE GFS HAS BEEN               
BULLISH WITH PCPN...WL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THERE IS TRULY                   
POTENTIAL FOR SIG RAINFALL. NWLY FLOW ALFT AND HIGH PRESSURE                    
AT THE SFC UNTIL AT LEAST TUE...WHEN COULD SEE SOME SCT WAA ACTION.             
&&                                                                              
.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
410 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.                                       
AGAIN MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION THIS MORNING REVOLVES AROUND CREATING             
WX/POP GRIDS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.                                             
CONVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM SWRN CWA INTO ERN CWA. SEEMS TO            
BE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 85H THETA-E FORCING NOTED THIS EVENING ON              
THE 00Z ETA/M-ETA. THIS FORCING IS FCSTD TO CONT THROUGH EARLY                  
MORNING HOURS BEFORE WASHING OUT. LATEST KABR 88D DATA SHOWS                    
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA SHIELD WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE KPIR AREA.              
WILL HIT PCPN HARD THIS MORNING...AND BASED ON SLOWNESS OF                      
SHIELD...MENTION PSBL HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING AS WELL. WITH                     
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS             
TODAY QUITE A BIT. 06Z RUC SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY               
NORTH DURING MORNING...WHICH SHOULD AID IN PCPN POTENTIAL TODAY                 
ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF CWA.                                                 
FOR TONIGHT...FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD THE WEST. MODELS BOTH AGREE ON            
BRINGING STRONG 5H S/W OUT OF MAIN LONGWAVE TROF. FORCING ON 85H AND            
7H THETA-E SFC GO NEUTRAL ACROSS THE ERN CWA...AND ISEN FORCING ON              
305K LAYER ALSO GOES NEUTRAL. 305K BEST NET ISEN OMEGA ALSO SHIFTS              
TO THE WEST. WITH ERLY FLOW STILL AT SFC...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE PCPN            
OUT OF ERN CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD STILL HAVE ABUNDANT CLOUDS             
AROUND WITH LOW SAT PRES DEF'S SEEN. TAIL END OF WARM FRONT BEGINS              
TO LIFT NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHEN SFC LOW FORMING ACROSS              
WYOMING REGION. WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT...HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT.           
THURSDAY HASN'T CHANGED MUCH...STILL LOOKS WET AND SOGGY. STRONG 85H            
AND 7H THETA-E FORCING MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING DAY AS SFC LOW            
AND ASSOCIATED TROF PUSH TO THE EAST. PWATS STILL REMAIN GREATER                
THAN 1.50" ACROSS FAR ERN CWA. 7H TROF LOCATED ACROSS SD/NE BORDER              
12Z THURSDAY LIFTS TO SD/ND BORDER BY 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE UPPED POPS               
THURSDAY TO LIKELY CATEGORY AND TRIED TO TIME THEM FROM WEST-EAST               
DURING DAY.                                                                     
DOWNGLIDE AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME            
PERIOD. BY 12Z FRIDAY MOST OF CWA SHOULD BE OUT OF PCPN WITH                    
CLEARING BEGINNING TO OCCUR. SAT PRES DEF'S INDICATE THAT THERE                 
SHOULD BE SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS ALL OF CWA BY AFTN. WITH DOWNSLOPE               
FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM AT LEAST TO GUID NUMBERS...IF               
NOT A BIT HIGHER. THINGS STAY DRY AND PLEASANT THROUGH 12Z SAT.                 
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                           
EXTENDED MODEL FAMILIES MAINTAINING PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL S/W ON                 
SUNDAY IN WNW FLOW...BUT THEY CONTINUE PERSISTENCE OF DRY FORECAST              
IN DAY 5 TIMEFRAME. PRIOR TO THIS...MAIN CHUNK OF ENERGY IN PLACE               
OVER NORTH CENTRAL CONUS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON SATURDAY LIFTS                 
ENEWD INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. SEVERELY LIMITED FOR MOISTURE                      
AVAILABILITY FROM THE GET-GO IN THE EXTENDED...SO SAW NO REASON TO              
STRAY FROM DRY FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED. 850HPA THERMAL PROGS AND               
MEX GUIDANCE SUPPORT GOING GRIDS...SO VERY LIMITED TWEAKS TO GRIDS              
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE                                                                       
MN...NONE                                                                       
&&                                                                              
HINTZ/DORN                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
435 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PCPN CHANCES                                    
CURRENT CONVECTION FM SRN MN EWD TO CNTRL WI IS ALONG NRN PERIPHERY             
OF SWLY 30KT LLJ AND SFC FNTL BNDRY. LLJ IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN THIS              
AM WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING CONVECTION AS WELL. THIS IS                 
DEPICTED WELL BY 06Z META AND LATEST RUC. A WLY LLJ WILL REDEVELOP              
TNT BUT THAT WILL BE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL.                                       
IN THE MEANTIME FNTL BNDRY WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CWA...MOVING                 
ACROSS THE SRN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT SOME SUN IN THE FAR              
SOUTH...SO BELIEVE GUIDANCE TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 70S ARE MUCH TOO LOW.           
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD YIELD CAPES            
FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH ONLY WEAK DCVA...LITTLE TO NO LLJ AND ONLY            
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT...EXPECT SCT TSTORMS VERSUS              
WIDESPREAD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CORFIDI MAGNITUDES OF A FEW KNOTS                
AND PWS AROUND 1.7 INCHES STILL SUGGEST AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD THREAT.            
WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD OUTLOOK BECAUSE OF ISOLD NATURE TO THE HAZARD.             
THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NRN IL TNT AND POSSIBLY MOVE BACK NORTH               
THU NT OR FRI DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND                       
ASSOCIATED PRES/WIND FIELD. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN FCST               
THROUGH SAT WITH MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATM AND WEAK LIFT                
FROM CONTINUED DCVA FM STREAM OF SHORTWAVES APPROACHING FROM THE                
SOUTH. IF THE STRONGER ETA SOLUTION IS REALIZED...MORE WIDESPREAD               
PCPN WOULD BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT AS LLJ AND MODERATE ISENTROPIC                 
LIFT GET UNDERWAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1014 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THE MODIFIED KTLH SOUNDING HAS A ML CAPE OF 2600 J/KG,            
PW OF 1.8 INCHES, AND K INDEX OF 34. THOSE CALCULATIONS ASSUME A                
SURFACE PARCEL WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 90 AND A DEWPOINT OF 70, AND NO            
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ALOFT. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12 UTC              
UPPER AIR DATA SHOW MID-UPPER LAYER DRYING OVER OUR AREA AS A                   
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. IF THIS              
TREND CONTINUES THE RUC WILL BE CORRECT IN FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT              
WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ML CAPE WOULD DROP TO              
1850 J/KG AND THE K INDEX TO 27. THAT WOULD CREATE A LESS FAVORABLE             
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ALSO, THE 1000-700 MB MEAN               
WIND (WHICH ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE) IS FORECAST TO BECOME             
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH WOULD PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE                  
FRONTS FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INLAND AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. A             
LARGE OF AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH GEORGIA               
MAY ALSO COMPLICATE THE POP FORECAST. SOMETIMES THE DIFFERENTIAL                
HEATING BETWEEN THESE CLOUDY AND SUNNY AREAS CAN LEAD TO MESOSCALE              
BOUNDARIES WHICH CAN TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTION. HAVING SAID ALL THAT,             
THE CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION OF LOWER POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST AND                 
HIGHER POPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST LOOKS REASONABLE, AND NO MAJOR CHANGES             
TO THE FORECASTS WILL BE NEEDED.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
230 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT OVER FROM THE EAST COAST            
SEABREEZE  AND THE GULF SEABREEZE HAVE FADED OVERNIGHT AND SKIES                
HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR. CALM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED            
THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE STATIONARY WAVE OVER EAST GA CONTINUES TO               
KICK OFF CONVECTION NE OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE IN GA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE            
TO IMPACT THE AREA BY ENHANCING THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON            
AND EVENING. I HAVE DECREASED THE POPS IN THE AL ZONES TO 30 TO                 
MATCH UP BETTER WITH GUIDANCE AND ADJACENT OFFICES. CHANCE POPS ARE             
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE              
REMAINS IN PLACE AND WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE                  
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND CLIMO: MAX TEMPS             
AROUND 90, MINS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SAT-TUE) THE ECMWF AND LATEST GFS BUILD A RATHER FLAT RIDGE OVER               
THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THIS RIDGE                  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IN A TROUGH. IN FACT               
THE GFS FORECASTS A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. I HAVE FOLLOWED               
GFS MOS CLOSELY WHICH IS VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR POPS AND                     
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 89 70 89 70 / 50 30 50 20                                                   
PFN 87 73 87 74 / 40 30 50 20                                                   
DHN 89 72 89 72 / 30 30 50 20                                                   
ABY 88 70 89 71 / 50 30 50 20                                                   
VLD 87 69 89 70 / 50 30 50 20                                                   
CTY 88 69 87 70 / 50 30 50 20                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CURRENT DISCUSSION...FOURNIER                                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BOLINSKI                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                      
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM                      
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOW A DEEP LOW OVER GREAT BASIN. A             
NEAR ZONAL FLOW EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.            
A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE ARE BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN            
LOW. THE FIRST IS OVER WISCONSIN. THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS                   
PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A COLD             
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWER            
MICHIGAN INTO IOWA. LOW LEVEL JET IS DRAWING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE             
UPPER GREAT LAKE REGION. SURFACE-500MB RH IS 80 PERCENT OVER THE                
U.P. WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE GENERATING            
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE U.P. THIS MORNING.                
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.            
THE Q-VECTORS CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AND WITH THE DRY AIR THE                  
SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS            
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.                   
TRAJECTORY FORECAST CONTINUE TO SHOW COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE              
FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO. WITH THE WEAKER Q-VECTOR AND                
LACK OF SURFACE HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE LESS LIKELY.               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1043 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS CREEPING ITS            
WAY SOUTH, GOT AN ADDED BOOST FROM A WAKE LOW PRODUCED BY THE                   
REMNANTS OF THE MCS THAT WAS IN E UPPER THIS MORNING. NEXT AREA OF              
REMNANTS OF A MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH                 
LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING. RADAR IS SHOW THAT THE HIGHEST                          
REFLECTIVITIES ARE BELOW THE -10C LEVEL, SO LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY               
THIS MORNING. SO HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING TO DOWNPLAY             
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH NOON. FOR THE AFTERNOON, MODELS (GFS             
06Z, ETA AND RUC 12Z) STILL SHOW THAT THE DRY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY             
INTO THE LOWER LEVELS IN E UPPER AND PUSH SOUTH. THIS LOOKS GOOD AS             
THE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S AND WILL CONTINUE TO              
DROP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO N LOWER OVER THE               
AFTERNOON SO THAT BY 21Z POPS FROM M-72 AND NORTH ARE 40% OR LESS.              
THE MAIN PROBLEM OF THE DAY THOUGH WILL BE SOUTH OF M-72 AS THE                 
FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH. THE FRONT CURRENTLY SITS SOUTH OF A STURGEON             
POINT TO LUDINGTON LINE, BUT THE 500 MB JET STILL HAS THE RRQ OVER              
THE AREA, SO WILL MAINTAIN THE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS, BUT DOWNPLAY              
THE THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                   
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 318 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                             
LONG TERM...A BRIEF TRANSITION TOWARD QUIET WEATHER. AMPLIFYING                 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LAKES                     
REGION...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW LIFTING NE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE            
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST...REACHING               
THE QUEBEC BORDER EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHOVE THE COLD FRONT INTO             
THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN               
LAKES. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY NIGHT STRONG RETURN FLOW WEST OF THE               
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE NORTH BACK INTO THE                
UPPER MS VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN LAKES. PRECIP CONCERNS ARE WITH ANY             
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT INTO                 
FRIDAY.                                                                         
MODELS...ETA IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN RETURNING MOISTURE TO THE               
FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS IS A DEPARTURE FROM EARLIER            
RUNS...AND THE ETA IN GENERAL HAS BEEN TOO WET THIS PAST WEEK. IN               
ADDITION THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY.            
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER/DRIER GFS.                                          
TONIGHT...DRYING PROCEEDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...FIRST IN THE LOWER              
LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY ALOFT. POPS THUS WILL CONTINUE TO                         
DWINDLE...AND BY OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHRA IN             
THE EXTREME SOUTH. EASTERN UPPER...WHICH WILL BECOME MOSTLY                     
CLEAR...WILL HAVE A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID             
40S. WITH MORE CLOUDS...NORTHERN LOWER MI WILL BE MAINLY 50 TO 55.              
THURSDAY...NICE DAY SHAPING UP. MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT START THE                  
MORNING IN THE SOUTH HALF WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND PUSH SOUTH. ETA            
SOUNDGINS SUGGEST LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN             
A FEW TO PERHAPS SCT CUMULI. COOL NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN              
850MB TEMPS IN HIGH SINGLE DIGITS C...WITH CORRESPONDING MAX TEMPS              
IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON.                             
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE NORTHERN              
HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...NEARLY STACKED WITH            
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW. RETURN FLOW WILL POINT TOWARD THE UPPER MS               
VALLEY AND FAR WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...AS A TRIPLE-POINT SURFACE               
LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS FILLS...MOISTURE INFLOW DIMINISHES HERE               
AND REFOCUSES TO THE NORTH...WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT               
EAST OF PARENT LOW NORTH OF THE BORDER. END RESULT SHOULD BE A                  
DIMINISHING BAND OF MAINLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING NE INTO THE SW            
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP POPS OUT...AND                   
INSTEAD JUST PLAY UP AN INCREASING CLOUD TREND. BEFORE THEN...                  
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN ORDER THU NIGHT (MINS IN THE 40S)...WITH MAX              
TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 60S.                                                        
NO CHANGES REST OF FORECAST.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1010 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS REVEALS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS                
NORTHERN LOWER THEN SNAKES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE                      
MICHIGAN...AND JUST ON THE DOOR STEP OF KMKE AT 13Z.  ATMOSPHERE                
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE                    
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S AND INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATERS PER             
FSL/S GROUND BASED GPS NEAR 1.50".  MODIFYING 12Z SOUNDING WITH                 
86/71 SURFACE PARCEL, SHOWS CAPES NEAR 4500 J/KG WITH LI/S TO -10C.             
THE WET BULB AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE HIGH BETWEEN                   
12K-13K FEET BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS            
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL STILL              
EXISTS AS STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW PER CORFIDI VECTORS.                        
CURRENTLY, WE ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING MCS (NEARLY                  
STATIONARY LAST NIGHT) WITH 1KM HI-RES VISIBLE SHOWING NOTHING MORE             
THAN CI/CS ACROSS THE LOWER STATE.  LAPS DATA CURRENTLY HAS HIGH                
CONVECTIVE INHIBITIONS BUT WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE, WE SHOULD ERODE THE             
SURFACE CAP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS                   
BETWEEN 83-85F.  WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK PER LATEST RUC AS MODEL                
REVEALS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS FOCUS             
MECHANISM FOR THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITIONAL TO WHAT DEVELOPS ALONG             
THE COLD FRONT.  WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF             
INSTABILITY, CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH BEST SHEAR              
REMAINS WELL BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                       
WE WILL REFRESH THE GRIDS AND HWO.                                              
BGM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT                                                  
WILL UPDATE TO LESSEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS MORNING AS CAP IS               
HOLDING STRONG ACROSS CWA. THIS LEADS TO CHANCE WORDING NORTH TO                
ISOLATED SOUTH. STILL LOOKS DECENT FOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING...ALTHOUGH OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.                
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS(S) FROM WI INTO WESTERN LOWER MI SEEMS                
TO BE DISRUPTING FLOW. ACTUALLY...CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW HAS SET UP               
IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...ON CUSP OF MESOSCALE HIGH FROM STORMS                
AND WAVE LIFTING INTO OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY MESS THINGS UP A BIT                
IN THIS PREFERRED AREA (SW LOWER) AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.                
THAT SAID...IT APPEARS FROM INITIAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAT               
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IN THIS REGION THIS MORNING...               
LEADING TO RATHER RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY                 
AROUND 70 F. BOTTOM LINE...RATHER VIGOROUS...ALBEIT DISORGANIZED                
CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED DURING LATER 1/2 OF THE DAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT                                         
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN                    
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE WEST COAST.                
OBSERVED +110KT 300MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BETWEEN                
THESE SYSTEMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO               
NORTHERN LOWER...EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO COLORADO. REGIONAL RADARS             
SHOW CONVECTION MAINLY ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTH DAKOTA              
TO WISCONSIN...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT FROM WESTERN LOWER            
TO NORTHERN HURON.                                                              
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE WITH PRECIP/SEVERE                 
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. ETA/GFS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT              
SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT FEATURE TIMING DIFFERENCES               
THAT IMPACT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SURFACE FRONT             
DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE BY 12Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. ETA IS A BIT STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE             
SURFACE HIGH...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF COLD               
FRONT. BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAY THE TWO MODELS HANDLE CONVECTION            
ALONG THE FRONT THOUGH...WHICH LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN                
PLACEMENT/SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.                                            
FOR TODAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA.                  
BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL                
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY CURRENTLY             
AVAILABLE TO GET STORMS GOING AHEAD OF IT. 03Z RUC ANALYSIS/FORECAST            
SHOW THE CAP IN PLACE EARLIER WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...BUT              
STILL TRYING TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 600MB TEMPS ONLY                  
SLOWLY DROP FROM 2C ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN WHY STORMS             
ARE HAVING SUCH A HARD TIME MAKING IT EASTWARD. HOWEVER AS A                    
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPROACHES THIS MORNING               
AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...WE SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE TO                 
EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA. WILL START WITH NUMEROUS TSRA IN THE NORTH               
WHERE STORMS ARE TRYING TO FIRE NEAR THE FRONT...AND START WITH                 
SCATTERED IN THE SOUTH. A FEW CELLS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE            
SOUTHERN CWA...HENCE THE CHANCE POPS INITIALLY. WILL THEN KEEP                  
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER                     
INSTABILITY/DROPPING HEIGHTS AND THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING.                 
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR TODAY. LAPSE             
ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES OVER 1000J/KG CAPE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL              
ONLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEAR BREAKS              
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. CONVECTIVE            
DEBRIS IS MAINLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WE SHOULD               
SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH COULD HELP            
TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AGAIN. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL                   
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO OVER 2000J/KG CAPE/LIS              
DOWN TO -5C. WIND FIELD IS STILL PRETTY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM               
SHEAR INCREASES TO 30M/S BY AFTERNOON. 850MB JET ALSO PICKS                     
UP...WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 30KTS. COULD SEE SOME MULTICELL                
STORMS...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM PULSE                  
SEVERE. WIND/HAIL BOTH LOOK POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH FREEZING LEVELS UP             
TO 14-15KFT. STORM MOTION IS LESS THAN 20KTS...AND ORIENTATION TO               
INFLOW SUPPORTS BACKBUILDING/TRAINING ECHOES...WITH LOCALIZED                   
FLOODING CONCERNS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO ABOUT               
1.75 INCHES /ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT DTX/...SIMILAR TO WHAT              
WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM AT GRB/MPX LAST NIGHT.                                    
FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME APPARENT. ETA                   
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE                         
FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT...AND              
KEEPS IT GOING ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GFS ON THE                 
OTHER HAND DEVELOPS AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY THIS EVENING...WHICH CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE FEED INTO THE                 
STATE AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.                
GIVEN WHAT IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING                   
TONIGHT...EVENING NORTH/ALL NIGHT SOUTH.                                        
SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER 850MB               
FRONT LINGERS BACKS NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL                 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE              
ELEVATED FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF            
OF THE CWA THURSDAY...AND CUT BACK FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.                
THURSDAY NIGHT IS VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES TRY TO                  
DEVELOP ALONG COMPLEX...WHICH SHOULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ETA            
IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER INSTEAD                    
DEVELOPING STORMS FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.                 
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SPIN               
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD.               
WESTERN LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING            
RATHER BROAD AS SOME ENERGY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST.                     
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHORTWAVES AND SHIFTS                 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO DISPLACE THE              
BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK TO THE NORTH. BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT/MOISTURE                
FLUX ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNDER FALLING HEIGHTS...WITH THIS                   
ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE                      
DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE FRONT MOVING BACK INTO              
THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE STILL TRIES TO HOLD ON ACROSS NORTHEAST                  
ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE TSRA ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHWEST CWA...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE EVERYWHERE BEGINNING FRIDAY                  
NIGHT. CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY             
FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER/GURNEY                                                                
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
720 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE TO LESSEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS MORNING AS CAP IS               
HOLDING STRONG ACROSS CWA. THIS LEADS TO CHANCE WORDING NORTH TO                
ISOLATED SOUTH. STILL LOOKS DECENT FOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING...ALTHOUGH OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION.                
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS(S) FROM WI INTO WESTERN LOWER MI SEEMS                
TO BE DISRUPTING FLOW. ACTUALLY...CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW HAS SET UP               
IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI...ON CUSP OF MESOSCALE HIGH FROM STORMS                
AND WAVE LIFTING INTO OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY MESS THINGS UP A BIT                
IN THIS PREFERRED AREA (SW LOWER) AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.                
THAT SAID...IT APPEARS FROM INITIAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAT               
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IN THIS REGION THIS MORNING...               
LEADING TO RATHER RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY                 
AROUND 70 F. BOTTOM LINE...RATHER VIGOROUS...ALBEIT DISORGANIZED                
CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED DURING LATER 1/2 OF THE DAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT.                                        
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN                    
CONUS...WITH UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND THE WEST COAST.                
OBSERVED +110KT 300MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BETWEEN                
THESE SYSTEMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO               
NORTHERN LOWER...EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO COLORADO. REGIONAL RADARS             
SHOW CONVECTION MAINLY ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTH DAKOTA              
TO WISCONSIN...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT FROM WESTERN LOWER            
TO NORTHERN HURON.                                                              
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE WITH PRECIP/SEVERE                 
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. ETA/GFS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT              
SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...BUT FEATURE TIMING DIFFERENCES               
THAT IMPACT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SURFACE FRONT             
DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE BY 12Z THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. ETA IS A BIT STRONGER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE             
SURFACE HIGH...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF COLD               
FRONT. BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAY THE TWO MODELS HANDLE CONVECTION            
ALONG THE FRONT THOUGH...WHICH LEAD TO ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES IN                
PLACEMENT/SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.                                            
FOR TODAY...SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA.                  
BOUNDARY IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL                
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY CURRENTLY             
AVAILABLE TO GET STORMS GOING AHEAD OF IT. 03Z RUC ANALYSIS/FORECAST            
SHOW THE CAP IN PLACE EARLIER WEAKENING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...BUT              
STILL TRYING TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 600MB TEMPS ONLY                  
SLOWLY DROP FROM 2C ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN WHY STORMS             
ARE HAVING SUCH A HARD TIME MAKING IT EASTWARD. HOWEVER AS A                    
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPROACHES THIS MORNING               
AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...WE SHOULD SEE STORMS CONTINUE TO                 
EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA. WILL START WITH NUMEROUS TSRA IN THE NORTH               
WHERE STORMS ARE TRYING TO FIRE NEAR THE FRONT...AND START WITH                 
SCATTERED IN THE SOUTH. A FEW CELLS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE            
SOUTHERN CWA...HENCE THE CHANCE POPS INITIALLY. WILL THEN KEEP                  
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BETTER                     
INSTABILITY/DROPPING HEIGHTS AND THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING.                 
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR TODAY. LAPSE             
ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES OVER 1000J/KG CAPE OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL              
ONLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLEAR BREAKS              
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. CONVECTIVE            
DEBRIS IS MAINLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WE SHOULD               
SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH COULD HELP            
TO PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AGAIN. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL                   
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S...WHICH WILL LEAD TO OVER 2000J/KG CAPE/LIS              
DOWN TO -5C. WIND FIELD IS STILL PRETTY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH 0-6KM               
SHEAR INCREASES TO 30M/S BY AFTERNOON. 850MB JET ALSO PICKS                     
UP...WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 30KTS. COULD SEE SOME MULTICELL                
STORMS...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM PULSE                  
SEVERE. WIND/HAIL BOTH LOOK POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH FREEZING LEVELS UP             
TO 14-15KFT. STORM MOTION IS LESS THAN 20KTS...AND ORIENTATION TO               
INFLOW SUPPORTS BACKBUILDING/TRAINING ECHOES...WITH LOCALIZED                   
FLOODING CONCERNS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO ABOUT               
1.75 INCHES /ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT DTX/...SIMILAR TO WHAT              
WAS OBSERVED UPSTREAM AT GRB/MPX LAST NIGHT.                                    
FOR TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME APPARENT. ETA                   
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE                         
FRONT...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT...AND              
KEEPS IT GOING ACROSS THE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GFS ON THE                 
OTHER HAND DEVELOPS AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY THIS EVENING...WHICH CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE FEED INTO THE                 
STATE AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT.                
GIVEN WHAT IS OBSERVED UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING                   
TONIGHT...EVENING NORTH/ALL NIGHT SOUTH.                                        
SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER 850MB               
FRONT LINGERS BACKS NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL                 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE              
ELEVATED FRONT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF            
OF THE CWA THURSDAY...AND CUT BACK FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.                
THURSDAY NIGHT IS VERY MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES TRY TO                  
DEVELOP ALONG COMPLEX...WHICH SHOULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. ETA            
IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL JET...HOWEVER INSTEAD                    
DEVELOPING STORMS FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.                 
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SPIN               
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD.               
WESTERN LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING            
RATHER BROAD AS SOME ENERGY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST.                     
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHORTWAVES AND SHIFTS                 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO DISPLACE THE              
BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK TO THE NORTH. BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT/MOISTURE                
FLUX ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA UNDER FALLING HEIGHTS...WITH THIS                   
ACTIVITY SLOWLY WORKING EASTWARD. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO HAVE                      
DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND SPEED OF THE FRONT MOVING BACK INTO              
THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE STILL TRIES TO HOLD ON ACROSS NORTHEAST                  
ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE TSRA ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHWEST CWA...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE EVERYWHERE BEGINNING FRIDAY                  
NIGHT. CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY             
FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER/GURNEY                                                                
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1015 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                      
LOOKS LIKE ERN ND AND NW MN SHOULD BE SAFE THIS AFTN/EVE FROM                   
ELEVATED SHOWERS WHICH PLAGUED THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  RUC SHOWS STILL            
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE 500-700 MB MOISTURE AROUND OVER SOUTH DAKOTA            
INTO WRN ND...BUT ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS            
MAIN 700 MB FRONT YHAT WAS OVER SRN ND/NRN SD TUESDAY HAS WASHED                
OUT.  THUS UPDATED ZFP/GRIDDS TO REMOVE MORNING PCPN SE ND/WCNTRL MN.           
UPPER FLOW STILL FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THUS SPREADING SOME HIGHER                
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTN...BUT ENOUGH                 
HOLES SHOWING UP IN VSBL PIX TO MENTION SOME SUN IN MOST AREAS.                 
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES SO LOOK FOR AFTN MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S             
PER FCST.                                                                       
NEW ETA SHOWING NEXT SYSTEM ON TARGET TO COME IN THU NIGHT INTO                 
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SVR STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE            
AREA FRIDAY AFTN. SYSTEM STILL PROGRESSIVE.  WHILE QUICK HEAVY RAINS            
(OVER 1 IN/6HR) CERTAINLY VERY PSBL...LONG TERM PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN            
DOESNT LOOK LIKELY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
REGION STILL PRETTY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...BUT PROGRESSIVE            
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HIT ANY ONE AREA WITH A                
GREATER PCPN THREAT THAN ANOTHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER             
1.50 INCHES AND THE OPEN GULF WILL KEEP A FLOODING THREAT POSSIBLE              
...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ATTM.                             
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1010 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE VORT FURTHER SOUTH ACRS GA THAN EARLIER              
EXPECTED WITH RUC LOOKING TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE THAN            
06Z SHORT RANGE MODELS...DRIFTING IT ENE FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION              
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEAN FLOW IS EVEN WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY SO               
NOT SURE HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL LIFT THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE...                  
PROBABLY JUST SOME SPOKES OF WEAK DPVA CIRCULATING AROUND THE WAVE.             
AT ANY RATE STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CVRG BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST AND                
LEAST IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ROUGHLY BASED ON MEAN RH GRADIENT.             
PWATS ON OBSERVED 12Z SNDGS ABOUT 125% OF NORMAL AND WITH THE WEAK              
STEERING FLOW...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT.                  
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH BREAKS IN THE WEST                  
LIKELY TO FILL IN THROUGH MIDDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS INTERACTION OF WEAK UPPER                  
TROUGH...PERSISTENT SURFACE CONVERGENT AXIS TO OUR SOUTH...UPSLOPE              
FLOW...AND PW/S IN EXCESS OF 130% OF NORMAL SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD              
TO GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. IN FACT...CONVECTION HAS BEEN                   
INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE CWFA...                     
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH            
OF I-40. THEREFORE...WILL START OUT THE MORNING WITH CHANCE POPS                
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS ONCE AGAIN THAT THE             
BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND                
SOUTHERN NC...AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND              
ALONG THE CONVERGENT AXIS...AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE             
TO DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN              
BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO             
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS THAT MANAGE TO SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN              
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER LATER                   
TODAY...AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY IN                
RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS               
THIS OCCURS...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER              
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF                  
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.                      
HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A LEE                 
TROUGH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR                  
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. PLUS...THE ATMOSPHERE DOES REMAIN QUITE MOIST            
TOMORROW...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE            
AREA.                                                                           
MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE OHIO                 
VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR AREA IS            
A THREAT FOR CONVECTION ORGANIZING ALONG THE FRONT...THEN RIDING                
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF OUR CWFA THURSDAY NIGHT             
OR EARLY FRIDAY. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS TO                   
REFLECT THIS THREAT.                                                            
THE 00Z ETA SLIPS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CWFA             
THROUGH THE BACKDOOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THAT IT'S EARLY              
JUNE...HAVE SOME SUSPICIONS ABOUT THIS OCCURRING...AND WILL FAVOR               
THE GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH EVEN IT BACKDOORS THE FRONT              
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS               
THE NORTHEAST ZONES ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST TOKEN CHANCES TO THE                  
SOUTHWEST. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST PAST FRIDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CSH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
1030 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LAPS DATA VOID OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS                   
MORNING WITH UPPER AIR PATTERN ANTI-PRECIP. HOWEVER...UPDATE WITH RUC           
AND META MODELS SHOW WIND BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO NORTH MIDDLE                   
TENNESSEE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY...TOUCHING OFF LOCAL QPF.            
BEST CHANCE OF LATE DAY STORMS IN THE PLATEAU. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT            
THIS TIME...JUST UPDATE FOR WORDING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
955 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO               
MOVING INTO HIDALGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE               
IMAGES INDICATE A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST             
FROM EAST OF SAN FERNANDO TO LA PESCA. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS                    
INDICATES SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST                  
UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TX. RUC 1000-500MB                     
RH/STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF              
MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO TX. WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGES            
AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST             
TX PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE WITH              
EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL TX AND OVER THE PLAINS OF THE             
PANHANDLE. WITH 500MB TROUGH AXIS OVER WEST TX THIS                             
AFTERNOON...BELIEVE SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO              
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB INVERTED              
TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. WILL               
ADJUST GRIDS AND UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...RADAR DEPICTED JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS             
THIS MORNING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL PUSHING UP              
FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST. BUOY 020 REPORTED SEAS             
OF 8 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST             
TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING BUT                 
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL                 
GENERALLY STAY UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE                
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THAT PERIOD.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AROUND THE                
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT            
FROM THE SURFACE TO THE TROPOPAUSE AND A MVFR LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD             
BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS                 
QUITE HIGH. THE 12Z KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A PRECIPITABLE                
WATER VALUE OF 2.36 INCHES...QUITE HIGH. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BACKED            
OFF ON SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS               
NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 25 KNOTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE H5 LOW OVER THE BIG BEND SHOULD CONTINUE             
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THUS...AT LEAST ONE INGREDIENT...               
INSTABILITY...WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE RAINMAKING EQUATION FOR DEEP             
SOUTH TEXAS. SOME DRY AIR DOES SEEM TO BE FILLING IN BEHIND THE                 
LOW...SO DRYING ALOFT...IF NOT AT LOWER LEVELS...ALSO APPEARS TO BE             
ON TAP. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY            
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE SUPPLY NEAR THE                 
COAST WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THERE TODAY.                                
THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM IS THE H5 LOW ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN               
AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE                  
WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE COUNTRY              
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND ALLOWS RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC TO SHIFT              
SOUTH AND BEAR MORE DIRECTLY ON THE NORTHERN GULF AND DEEP SOUTH                
TEXAS. THE GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE WEST                
COST AND INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS WELL AS                 
POTENTIALLY MORE TROPICAL ACTIVITY.                                             
AS H5 RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AREA OF                 
WEAKNESS FORMS OVER THE WEST GULF. THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE            
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE               
RELEASE AIR OF CONTINENTAL POLAR ORIGIN FROM CANADA AND...ALTHOUGH              
AIR MASS DIFFERENCES WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS COLD SEASON                        
DIFFERENCES...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION TO BRING             
SOME SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                      
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
61/69/VEGA                                                                      
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1019 AM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HI PRESS ALG THE CST AND ALOFT THIS AFTN.                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ADDED A SLIGHT CHC TO PARTS OF THE SE THIS AFTN. LOOKED AT AM                   
SOUNDINGS AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH AFTN HI IN THE LOW 90S AND DPS IN            
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WSETA AND RUC SUPPORT A WEAK BOUNDARY WITH SOME             
CONVG OVR SE AND WITH SEABREEZE MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A SLGT CHC THIS             
PM. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. &&                                                    
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SBY   90  70  87  64 /  10  10  50  40                                          
OXB   84  70  83  64 /  10  10  50  40                                          
WAL   88  72  84  66 /  10  10  40  40                                          
FVX   92  69  89  67 /  20  10  40  40                                          
RIC   92  70  90  68 /  10  10  40  40                                          
PTB   92  70  91  68 /  10  10  40  40                                          
AKQ   91  70  91  68 /  10  10  40  30                                          
PHF   91  72  90  69 /  10  10  40  40                                          
ORF   90  73  90  70 /  10  10  30  30                                          
ECG   89  72  89  70 /  20  10  30  30                                          
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
92                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
228 PM MDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                                          
CURRENTLY...3000 J/KG OVER PLAINS. SHEAR IS INCREASING PER LATEST               
RUC ANALYSIS. DEWS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND WILL NOT MIX OUT MUCH                 
MORE. BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER THE PALMER DVD. FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL.            
AFTERNOON...BUSY DAY ANTICIPATED. STORMS ALREADY FIRING BUT BETTER              
STORMS WILL GO BY MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS LIKELY WITH A FEW TORS              
POSSIBLE AND EXPECT T BOX BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. DEEP SHEAR IS ONLY            
GOING TO GET GRADUALLY BETTER AND THIS SHOWN BY 00Z RUC WITH 3500               
J/KG ON PLAINS POINTING TOWARD PALMER DVD AND 45 KNTS DEEP SHEAR.               
FIRE WX...NO CHANGES HERE IN SHORT TERM. WINDS INCREASING AS I                  
WRITE. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS COMING OUT AND SOME MOISTURE...EXPECT               
ISOLD FIRE STARTING CGS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.                               
TONIGHT...SVR AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS WILL BE WITH US. DUE TO                    
MERIDIONAL FLOW...STORMS MAY HUG THE I-25 CORRIDOR MORE THEN NORMAL.            
BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT ALL OF THIS TO CLEAR OUT AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES              
ACROSS                                                                          
TOMORROW...CLEAR AND WINDS. FIRE WX WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF             
THE NWS PUB CWA. WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 40               
MPH POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)                                         
WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST              
COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGE AT 700 MB PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN              
COLORADO. FRIDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED                 
TO PUSH SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE...THEN MOVE SLOWLY BACK NORTH                
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN COLORADO MOUNTAINS.                   
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE             
OF COOLER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. COOLING OF AROUND 3 TO 5                
DEGREES WILL PERSIST OVER OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT              
TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220<225. INCLUDES THE SAN JUAN MTNS...             
CENTRAL MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY...SOUTHERN MTNS AND PIKES PEAK/TELLER            
COUNTY.                                                                         
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER             
ZONES 220<225. INCLUDES THE SAN JUAN MTNS...CENTRAL MTNS...SAN LUIS             
VALLEY...SOUTHERN MTNS AND PIKES PEAK/TELLER COUNTY AND THE EASTERN             
PLAINS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
140 PM EDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)...                                                      
SCT TSRA DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG RELATIVE MAX IN PW               
FIELD, AND AHEAD OF SUBTLE UPPER TROP SPEED MAX OVER SRN IL/MO.                 
FOLLOWING THE RUC, LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE BY             
MID EVE. FLOW PTTN DURING MOST OF SHORT TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY            
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SERN CONUS, AND CHCS FOR PCPN EACH            
DAY WITHIN UNCAPPED ENVIRON. FRONTAL BDY WHICH IS FCST TO SETTLE SWD            
INTO IN/OH TOMORROW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME FLAVOR OF FOCUS FOR TSRA                
DEVELOPMENT, ESP ALONG/N OF I-64. PCPN EFFICIENCY PARAMETERS ARE                
VERY FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINS THU AFT/EVE, GIVEN FREEZING                
LVLS NEAR 4KM, PWS AOA 2", AND A WIND PROFILE POINTING TWDS SLOW                
MVG/TRAINING CELLS. SFC BDY FCST TO LIFT NWD MORE INTO GREAT LAKES              
FRI AS 500MB WAVE EJECTS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT WILL LEAVE                    
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER NRN FA GIVEN SOME SPREAD IN SOLNS BTWN                
GFS/ETA. FEATURE OF NOTE ON SAT IS EXTREME INSTABILITY FCST TO                  
DEVELOP (GFS CAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG) OVER OH VLY. TS CELLS MAY             
ORGANIZE ALONG COLD POOLS WITHIN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT,              
WHICH COULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY. SOMETHING TO WATCH. XXV                     
.LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)...                                                       
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE WITH PUSHING THE               
PERSISTENT CENTRAL U.S. TROF INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE FCST               
PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN DRAGGING A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH            
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER            
AIR FILTERING IN BY WEDNESDAY.  PREVIOUS EXTENDED FCST IS IN GOOD               
SHAPE.  HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MON/TUE PERIOD TO               
BUMP UP POPS AND SKY COVER A BIT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS THROUGH.             
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...00Z TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD AND WILL USE A               
GENERAL BLEND OF HPC/OP NUMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST. -JARVIS                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
340 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TROPICAL PLUME CONTINUES TO GENERATE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH                    
EMBEDDED SHOWERS...WITH SHEAR AXIS DELINEATING AREA OF MOST                     
PRONOUNCED RAINFALL.  SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK OCCURRING IN PRECIPITATION            
AT TIME...WITH PROFILER NETWORK INDICATING PASSAGE OF ONE IN A                  
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES THAT ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE SHEAR                
ZONE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION TROPICAL PLUME OR            
CHANGE IN ORIENTATION IN SHEAR ZONE...THUS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO            
HIGH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LAPS AND                 
FORECAST ETA SOUNDINGS DEPICTING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC                         
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES...THUS KEPT THUNDER WORDING TO                    
ISOLATED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF              
FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE LONGEST PERIODS WITHOUT RAINFALL THIS             
EVENING...BUT EXPECT CHANCES IN THIS AREA TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z.                
PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY             
TOMORROW...AND KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS UNTIL 18Z. A             
LITTLE MORE MID-LEVEL DRYING...AND MORE HEATING WILL INCREASE                   
INSTABILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.            
EXPECT ATTENDANT PLUME AND SHEAR ZONE TO MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA             
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THUS BACKED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AREA.            
QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...COLD FRONT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP                  
IGNITE STORMS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY               
NIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A                  
MID-LEVEL CAP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MISSOURI THURSDAY                 
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THUS ONLY KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE                    
MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER WHICH WILL LIE ALONG CAPS NORTHERN EDGE.  RIGHT            
NOW...HAVE DEVELOPED FORECAST WITH IDEA THAT CAP WILL HOLD OVER MOST            
OF FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.  WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90               
AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...WILL HAVE WATCH SITUATION             
CLOSELY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE VARIANCE OVERNIGHT WITH               
NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL RECOVER A             
LITTLE ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A LITTLE MORE                  
INSOLATION.  FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS WEEK.                   
PINNING DOWN SHORTWAVE TIMING IN THE WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW              
REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO ADD COMPLEXITY TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF               
THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND ETA SOLUTIONS DISAGREE ON               
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE               
ETA BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY                      
AFTERNOON. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION...WITH THE FRONT TO THE               
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS ON            
SATURDAY TO COVER POTENTIAL IMPULSE-INITIATED ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE              
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NOCTURNAL/LLJ CONVECTION TO ENTER NORTHWEST                
MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE               
BEHAVIOR...MAY SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT                 
ANTICIPATE RE-DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT             
TRAVELS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS                      
POINT...IT IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS TIMING OF POTENTIAL SEVERE             
WEATHER MOSTLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FRONTAL                          
POSITION...BUT THE THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT               
(AS AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE WEST ALONG               
THE FRONT/DRY LINE) AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AS THE FRONT                 
MOVES ACROSS).                                                                  
SF/LS                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1143 AM...                                                                      
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER             
ACTIVITY.  LIGHTNING NETWORK IS NOT DETECTING ANY ELECTRICAL                    
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS               
LAPS AND ETA20 SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY.  DUE TO            
PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND CLOUDS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO                
CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL                    
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS INTO THURSDAY...SO DID A QUICK UPDATE OF GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS            
TREND.  ALSO...LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A NOTCH.                                
SF                                                                              
409 AM...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW                
DAYS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND              
SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING                 
NORTH THROUGH PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS TREND SHOULD                   
CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT                
EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH CAPE LESS THAN 1500 J/KG AND                      
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE                
1.5"...SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A              
FLOOD WATCH. NO BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TO FOCUS ON AND FLASH FLOOD                
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. LOWEST VALUES...RIGHT            
AT 2 INCHES...ARE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI            
WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE LOWER.                                          
ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY.              
LOWERED TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO MORE FROM THE EVENING UPDATE.                
SHOULD MAYBE HAVE GONE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI               
COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST. THINKING               
THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR                   
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE                
UPPER 70S THERE.                                                                
ETA AND GFS BOTH PROG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION              
OVERNIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN POSITION. ETA LINES UP QPF UNDER                
SHEARED OUT VORT LOBE OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND IS A                  
LITTLE MORE GUNG-HO WITH POPS...HOWEVER QPF IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY LOW.             
GFS BRINGS QPF ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. FOR NOW HAVE              
INCREASED POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD.                            
ALSO BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE            
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AND               
QUITE UNSTABLE.                                                                 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES MADE.                
NRR                                                                             
910 PM TUE...                                                                   
EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE                 
ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM                  
CLOSED LOW NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN CA. MEAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW              
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER             
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS                      
FLOW...RESULTING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE                
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TX INTO               
NORTHWEST MO. WEAK VORTICITY FEATURES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS                 
RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF               
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS                                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS RESIDES.                        
18Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION                
WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN OK/KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO AFTER            
06Z TONIGHT...AND NEW 00Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BE IN BASIC                      
AGREEMENT...SPREADING 850MB MOISTURE AXIS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO            
LATE TONIGHT. TOP/SGF EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY                  
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN DEEP MOIST                       
AIRMASS...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT EXPECT                        
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF                       
CWA...POSSIBLY REACHING KC METRO AREA TOWARDS MORNING. HAVE RAISED              
POPS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN            
TWO THIRDS OF CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES                 
PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE                 
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL             
BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED                        
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.                                                      
SEAMAN                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1143 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD                    
SHOWER ACTIVITY.  LIGHTNING NETWORK IS NOT DETECTING ANY                        
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED                     
THUNDERSTORMS AS LAPS AND ETA20 SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOWING VERY                     
WEAK INSTABILITY.  DUE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL AND CLOUDS...LOWERED              
TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                    
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL                     
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY...SO DID                      
A QUICK UPDATE OF GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS TREND.  ALSO...LOWERED                  
MAX TEMPERATURES A NOTCH.                                                       
SF                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
409 AM...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW                
DAYS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND              
SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING                 
NORTH THROUGH PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THIS TREND SHOULD                   
CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DO NOT                
EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH CAPE LESS THAN 1500 J/KG AND                      
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE                
1.5"...SO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A              
FLOOD WATCH. NO BOUNDARY IN THE AREA TO FOCUS ON AND FLASH FLOOD                
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ALL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. LOWEST VALUES...RIGHT            
AT 2 INCHES...ARE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI            
WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE LOWER.                                          
ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY.              
LOWERED TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO MORE FROM THE EVENING UPDATE.                
SHOULD MAYBE HAVE GONE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI               
COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST. THINKING               
THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST OR                   
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE                
UPPER 70S THERE.                                                                
ETA AND GFS BOTH PROG ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION              
OVERNIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN POSITION. ETA LINES UP QPF UNDER                
SHEARED OUT VORT LOBE OVER THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND IS A                  
LITTLE MORE GUNG-HO WITH POPS...HOWEVER QPF IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY LOW.             
GFS BRINGS QPF ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. FOR NOW HAVE              
INCREASED POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD.                            
ALSO BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE            
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AIRMASS REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED AND               
QUITE UNSTABLE.                                                                 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES MADE.                
NRR                                                                             
910 PM TUE...                                                                   
EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE                 
ACROSS EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM                  
CLOSED LOW NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN CA. MEAN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW              
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER             
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS                      
FLOW...RESULTING FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE                
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN TX INTO               
NORTHWEST MO. WEAK VORTICITY FEATURES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS                 
RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF               
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS REGION THIS                                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS RESIDES.                        
18Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN STRONG AGREEMENT DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION                
WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN OK/KS INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO AFTER            
06Z TONIGHT...AND NEW 00Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO BE IN BASIC                      
AGREEMENT...SPREADING 850MB MOISTURE AXIS INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO            
LATE TONIGHT. TOP/SGF EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY                  
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN DEEP MOIST                       
AIRMASS...AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT EXPECT                        
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF                       
CWA...POSSIBLY REACHING KC METRO AREA TOWARDS MORNING. HAVE RAISED              
POPS FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD FOR LATE TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN            
TWO THIRDS OF CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES                 
PROGGED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE                 
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL             
BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED                        
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.                                                      
SEAMAN                                                                          
230 PM...                                                                       
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DEPICTING REMNANTS OF MCV OVER EASTERN                    
KANSAS...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND INTO NEBRASKA.  HASN'T                   
SPAWNED MUCH PRECIPITATION...ONLY A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME            
EASTERN KANSAS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED AND SLIGHT CHANCES             
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.  TWO FEATURES WORTH               
NOTING...AN 850MB TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA...AS WELL AS UPPER              
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS.  850MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STAY TO              
THE NORTH...BUT VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS WILL BE THE            
FOCUS FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  CHANCES                  
INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY                 
ADVECTION...EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASSING ENTIRE AREA BY TOMORROW                     
AFTERNOON.  WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN...THE ENTIRE DAY WON'T             
BE A WASH. AS VORT MAX EXITS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FROM WEST TO              
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS GOOD...TEMPS            
LOOK IN GOOD ORDER...NO CHANGES MADE.                                           
WARM AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST FEW                      
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH ETA...GFS AND ECMWF ALL                      
SHOWING A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD KEEP            
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP TOO MUCH IN THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY                
TIMEFRAME...WITH FRIDAY THE MOST LIKELY DAY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL              
FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREE MARK. LATEST ETA RUN DISSOLVES CAP FAIRLY                  
QUICKLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING STORMS TO ERUPT ON CWA                      
DOORSTEP...WHILE GFS KEEPS LID ON. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN GOING                
FORECAST OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF STORMS ON FRIDAY.               
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GIVE AREA A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY                
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS DEVELOPING MCS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA               
THAT IS PROJECTED TO ROLL ACROSS FORECAST AREA. UPPER LOW MOVING                
INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT TIME...WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN CANADIAN             
PROVINCES THEN WILL DIG A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE            
EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.                
THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EFFECTIVELY END STRONG CONVECTION THREAT FOR            
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL PROVIDE AREA WITH WELCOMED REPRIEVE FROM             
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.                                                         
LEINS/SF                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
337 PM CDT WED JUN  9 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHWARD            
TO BROWNSVILLE...WHICH IS EAST AND NORTH OF PIVOTING UPPER LOW OVER             
NORTHERN MEXICO...AND WITHIN THE ALONG-STREAM VARIATION OF THE UPPER            
LEVEL WINDS REAR OF THE JET AXIS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING               
FROM THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE STRONGEST               
LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT OPPORTUNITY           
EXISTS OVERNIGHT FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN...WITH SOME OF             
IT HEAVY. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 00-06Z STRONG ASCENT WILL               
ACCOMPANY STRENGTHENING OF THE LEVEL JET...AND RE-ORIENTATION OF                
THE UPPER JET FROM MISSOURI...SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. WITH THE              
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS LIKELY OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME...COULD SEE                
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BY                 
12Z...EXPECT THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE TO BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH            
SUBSIDENCE INCREASING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FLOOD WATCH            
WILL BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE            
FROM PONCA CITY...TO CHICKASHA...TO HENRIETTA.                                  
DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS                        
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASCENT/COOLING EXPECTED TO REMAIN            
NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THERE EXISTS A PERIOD FROM MID AFTERNOON            
THROUGH MID EVENING...WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                 
COULD INFLUENCE WESTERN OKLAHOMA. INSOLATION SHOULD BE LIMITED                  
THURSDAY DUE TO MOIST GROUND AND ABUNDANT LOW CLOUD COVER.                      
A REPEAT OF THURSDAY MAY OCCUR FRIDAY WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE               
POSSIBLY BEING MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE. BUT DURING                
THIS PERIOD...THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...WHICH MAY LIMIT             
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW POPS FOR                          
WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS THAN EXTENDS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.                        
WEAK COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND/OR THROUGH THE AREA             
LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW POPS JUSTIFIED                  
DURING ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE. REGION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A                  
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH AIRMASS THEN                 
MODIFYING BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRYLINE RE-DEVELOPING.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  85  71  88 /  90  30  20  10                              
HOBART OK         70  87  70  90 /  60  20  20  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  85  71  89 /  80  10  20  10                              
GAGE OK           68  90  68  91 /  50  30  30  10                              
PONCA CITY OK     69  84  70  88 /  90  30  20  10                              
DURANT OK         70  84  72  88 / 100  30  10  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF                                
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.                                     
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR CLAY COUNTY.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
EFFECTIVE 11 AM TUESDAY JUNE 15 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER             
FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDOKC TO AFDOUN.  THE WMO HEADER             
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.  PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE               
COMPLETED BY JUNE 15 2004.                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
345 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THU...AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT OVER          
SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI AS SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALONG OR JUST         
NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  RUC SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE SO WILL FOLLOW        
FOR EARLY PERIODS.                                                              
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL BY MORNING...AS SURFACE        
HIGH OVER ONTARIO SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. DRIER         
NORTHEAST WILL BRING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S TONIGHT...THUS WILL END            
PCPN FROM N TO S THIS EVENING. EXPECT GRADIANT TO STAY UP SOME...SO WILL        
 NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.                                                  
RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD IN ON THU AHEAD OF TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST.           
WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND KEEP THU DRY...THOUGH WITH CLOUDS          
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES DUE TO FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL TREND                    
TEMPERATURES WARMER NORTH. TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH PERIOD.             
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF                   
PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.             
MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACHING WI THURSDAY            
NIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO        
NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH PASSING        
THROUGH WI AND A WARM FRONT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHIFTING              
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STATE. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE        
THROUGH WI AND A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE STATE SATURDAY         
NIGHT. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WI SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND              
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THERE           
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES TO GET PRECIPITATION             
GOING FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.                                         
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MG/TE                                                                           
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi