EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
300 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BRING                
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH                 
SEASONAL INLAND TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL COASTAL                  
TEMPERATURES. SLOW DRYING OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE            
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH FEWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND WITH                      
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AFTER TODAY.                   
COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW              
CLOUDS.                                                                         
SHORT RANGE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A DEAMPLIFICATION              
OF THE PATTERN OVR WRN NOAM DURG THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT DIFFER IN              
THE STRENGTH OF A LINGERING WK UPR TROUGH OVR CA. ONSHR LOW LVL FLOW            
FOR SRN CA WL CONTINUE TO BE WK. ETA SHOWS THE LOW AND MID LVL FLOW             
ACQUIRING A LTL GREATER WLY COMPONENT OVR SRN CA DURG THE NEXT TWO              
DAYS WITH A SLOW DRYING OF THE MID LVL MSTR TODAY AND GREATER DRYING            
FOR WED. RUC/MAPS KEEPS MOST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVR SRN NV               
AND THE FAR ERN DESERTS OF SRN CA AS WELL AS THE MTNS OF NRN BAJA               
WHILE KPG THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE MTNS OF SRN CA. THIS IS                      
CONSISTENT WITH THE GRADUAL DRYING TREND SHOWN BY THE ETA. WL RETAIN            
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR MTNS/DESERTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT LV OUT            
POPS XCP FOR SRNMOST AND ERNMOST MTNS AND DESERTS. WL USE MOSTLY                
SUNNY WORDING FOR WED AS ADDITIONAL DRYING OCCURS.                              
FOR CSTL SXNS...EARLY EVENING ACARS SOUNDINGS/RAOBS SHOWED A MARINE             
LYR DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FT WITH SOME SLOW DEEPENING LIKELY THE NEXT            
TWO DAYS AS HEIGHTS ALF SLOWLY LWR. ONSHR FLOW TO REMAIN WK. BOTH               
THE RUC AND 12Z COMAPS SHOWED A WK CSTL EDDY DEVELOPING BY MORNING...           
THEN DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON. 00Z COMAPS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WK              
CSTL EDDY FOR THIS MORNING. IN THE PAST...COAMPS HAS BEEN CORRECT IN            
TRENDING CORRECTLY WITH REGARD TO EDDY DEVELOPMENT...SO NOW EXPECT              
ANY EDDY DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING TO BE VERY WK IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.            
LIKEWISE...COAMPS IS LESS THAN GUNG HO IN FORECASTING AN EDDY FOR               
TONIGHT/WED MORNING. WL JUST CONTINUE THE TREND OF A GRADUAL INCR IN            
CSTL LOW CLOUDS EACH DAY.                                                       
EXTENDED...MED RANGE MDLS ARE FORECASTING A REDEVELOPMENT OF A                  
BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE VCNTY OF WRN NOAM...THIS TIME SLIGHTLY TO THE           
E OF THE CURRENT BLOCK (I.E. OVR BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE W CST                 
STATES INSTEAD OF OVR THE ERN PAC JUST OFF THE CST). THIS WOULD                 
PLACE A WK UPR LOW OVR CA...SUFFICIENT TO KP MONSOONAL MSTR                     
DISPLACED E OF THE LCL FORECAST AREA...INLAND TEMPERATURES NR                   
NORMAL...AND CSTL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.                             
SAN 000                                                                         
.SAN...NONE.                                                                    
MARTIN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSTO 140958  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
231 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
...GLOBALLY...                                                                  
THE FALL TRANSITION MARKS A MORE ENERGETIC JET AS THE BAROCLINIC                
ZONE STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTER DAYS. GLOBAL MOSAIC OF WATER            
VAPOR HAS A STRONG JET OF 100+ KNOTS (BASED ON DARKNESS) RUNNING                
FROM THE DATELINE BACK ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND A 90-100 KNOT            
JET RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN LAKES TO GREENLAND. THESE JETS ARE                 
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN AS IT STARTS TO                
TRANSITION FROM A 3 TO 4 WAVE PATTERN. FLOYD AND GERT ALONG WITH THE            
REST OF THE TROPICS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE ON HOW EVERYTHING              
EVOLVES AND THE OVERALL TIMING. THE TROPICS CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE               
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL NAMED STORMS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.              
THE DISTURBED WEATHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA LOOKS PROMISING TO              
POSSIBLY BECOME HARVEY. ANOTHER AREA OFF THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE               
EAST PACIFIC MAY ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY RESULT IN            
HILARY.                                                                         
FLOYD WILL BRIEFLY APPLY THE ATMOSPHERIC BRAKE ACROSS THE CONTINENT             
IN A FEW DAYS UNTIL THE WESTERLIES PICK HIM UP. AFTER THAT FLOYD                
RACES UP THE COAST SIMILAR TO THE HURRICANES OF 1938/1944...HAZEL               
AND GLORIA. FLOYD SHOULD AID IN TURNING GERT NORTHWARD AND KEEP IT              
WELL OUT TO SEA WHICH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WILL HAPPEN.                   
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE BUILDING THE WEST            
COAST RIDGE. THIS WOULD FORCE THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE                 
RIDGE TO DIVE FARTHER SOUTH AND CUT OFF OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AS               
THE 100+ KNOT JET INTERACTS WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE IN THE            
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. ALL GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS                
WILL HAPPEN WITH THE CUTOFF BEING ISOLATED FROM THE JET UNTIL THE               
MORE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE OVER SIBERIA BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE              
AND KICKS IT EASTWARD.                                                          
NET RESULT HERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL               
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.              
WITH THE CUTOFF PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA                         
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.           
...LOCALLY...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA HAS A NICE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH               
IOWA WHICH IS REFLECTED ON THE SURFACE AS A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO               
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE               
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH YET ANOTHER APPROACHING LAKE                 
WINNIPEG IN CANADA. BASED ON WATER VAPOR THIS CANADIAN SHORTWAVE                
LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS LITTLE             
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN COLD                
WEATHER SC JUST ENTERING NORTHERN IOWA. THE EARLIER -SHRA/--RA HAS              
MOVED TOWARD THE METRO AREAS OF CHI AND MKE. THE 12Z RUC SHOWS THAT             
THE QG FORCING FOR THE MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE              
AREA WITH ONLY DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MAIN COLD POOL           
MOVING INTO WISCONSIN. RECENT VISIBLE TRENDS DO SHOW THAT DIURNAL               
SC/CU IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND THE FORECAST AREA.                
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE FIRST TROF RUNNING FROM KDLL TO KIRK               
WITH ANOTHER RUNNING FROM NEAR KMSP TO KSUX. THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE IS           
REFLECTED ON THE SURFACE WITH A TROF FROM NEAR KBJI TO KBIS.                    
MOISTURE ANALYSIS HAS MID 40 DEW POINTS AROUND THE TROF WITH                    
GENERALLY LOWER 40 DEW POINTS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS             
IN THE 50S HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER              
WITH 60 DEW POINTS IN THE PANHANDLE.                                            
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE MAINLY CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES WITH ANY PRECIP            
CHANCES DUE TO TROF PASSAGE.                                                    
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK WITH THE ETA AND WHAT HAS              
ARRIVED OF THE AVN VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE NGM...ESPECIALLY WITH              
FLOYD. ETA/AVN KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT                   
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. ETA/AVN HAVE SOME QG FORCING PROGGED TO                
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN AREA OF              
LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT              
TO POP ISOLATED SHRA/--RA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR                
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...SIMILAR TO TODAY. MODELS THEN SHOW NOT              
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO POP ANY MORE PRECIP AFTER THIS                    
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. RH FIELDS AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW SKIES TO             
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN CLOUDS ARRIVING            
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN STAYING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A                     
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND A COLD POOL ALOFT STAY OVER THE                
REGION.                                                                         
TRAJECTORY METHODS YIELD LOW TO MID 40S FOR MINS TONIGHT WHICH IS IN            
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH FWC/FAN NUMBERS. COOLER FAN NUMBERS FOR               
MAXES LOOK MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.                           
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
GLOBAL MODELS PROG A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE                  
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS PROG A WEAK                
SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS OF COURSE WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW             
FAST FLOYD MOVES.                                                               
COORDINATED WITH DSM..LSE...CHI...AND ILX.                                      
.DVN...NONE.                                                                    
NC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KILX 141839  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
922 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
QUICK UPDATE COMING TO REMOVE PRECIP IN NRN ZONES FOR TODAY.  WILL              
ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE BEFORE CAA STRATUS MOVES BACK IN             
FROM NORTH. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z RUC DOESN'T BRING STRATUS INTO              
NRN CWA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...BUT TIME DISTANCE TOOL ON AWIPS              
DOES AROUND NOON.  TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH LATEST FLP AROUND                   
CURRENT MAX FCST.                                                               
WILL ALSO ADD 5 MPH TO WIND FCST IN NRN ZONES PER LATEST SANGSTER               
AND FLP WINDS.                                                                  
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SEARCY                                                                          
 ia                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                     
SHORT TERM FCST FOCUSES ON LGT RAIN MVG INTO FA THIS AFTN WITH SFC              
TROF AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT EFFECTING REGION.                             
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1004MB LOW PRES OVR CNTRL ONTARIO WITH A CD              
FRNT EXTENDING SE INTO WRN PA. SFC TROF EXTENDS FM THE LOW DWN INTO             
SE MN AND BECOMES STRNGER IN WRN IA AND N CNTRL KS...MORE FRONTLIKE.            
FM 14Z VIS SAT AND SFC OBS...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND -RA MV IN TO THE             
NW YOOP FM NRN MN AND SE ONTARIO AND WL EFFECT THE FA THIS AFTN. PGF            
ALONG WRN SIDE OF LOW PRES AREA VERY STRONG AS DELTA P'S ARE ROUGHLY            
10MB/100 MILES...RESULT IS BOISTEROUS SFC WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20             
KNOTS OVR SE MANITOBA AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MN.                                  
12Z RUC DOING A BETTER JOB OF INITIALIZING PAIR OF SHRTWV'S OVR NE              
MN AND NE IA PER 12Z WATER VAPOR IMG COMPARED TO 03Z ETA WHICH IS               
TOO STRNG AND FAST WITH SRN SHRTWV AND IS WAY TOO SLOW WITH NRN                 
ONE...SO WL FOLLOW RUC FOR UPDATE DETAILS. QPFS ARE FAIRLY  SIMILAR             
PRINTING OUT A BAND OF LGT PRECIP OVER MOST OF THE U.P. FOR THIS                
AFTN. BELIEVE THIS WL PLAY OUT IN LIGHT OF CURRENT SFC TRENDS AND               
COLDER AIR POCKET OF -22 TO -24 C STRETCHING OVR U.P. FOR MOST OF               
THIS AFTN. TRACKING THE SYSTEM EAST FOR LAST FEW DAYS HAS SEEN                  
INCREAS IN PRECIP DURING DIURNAL HEATING OF DAY...SO DON'T EXPECT               
THAT TO CHANGE TDY.                                                             
ALL IN ALL ZONES LOOK ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WL BE                  
NEEDED.                                                                         
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 141414  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                     
MADE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SHOWERS FOR ENTIRE CWA.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS             
A GOOD LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM ISABELLA SOUTH BACK INTO VAN              
BUREN.   THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF              
AFTERNOON HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH COLD 850 TEMPS...SHOWERS AND A            
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP WITH AND BEHIND THIS LINE.                  
LATEST SOUNDING INFORMATION SHOWS FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 5000 TO                
AROUND 7500 FEET. ALTHOUGH A BIT SCEPTICAL TO WIDE SPREAD                       
THUNDER...WITH SUCH A LOW FREEZING LEVEL PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE              
UNDER SOME DEVELOPING CU.                                                       
BESIDES COLD AIR ALOFT RUC SUGGESTS A STRONG VORT ADVECTING OVER CWA            
DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING WHICH CAN ONLY HELP DEVELOPMENT.                     
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
MCINERNEY                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 141341  mi                                      

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
930 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
HAD TO MAKE ANOTHER UPDATE THIS AM FOR THE STERIOD-STREGTHENED                  
SPRINKLES. OUR SH HAD .25 OF THESE SPRINKLES IN HIS RAIN GAUGE THIS             
AM. OH WELL...LEARNING EXPERIENCES CONSTANTLY ABOUND FOR ANY WEATHER            
FORECASTER.                                                                     
LOOKING UPSTREAM ON LWX RDR AND LOCAL MOSAIC...THINGS SEEM TO BE                
MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN TO OUR NORTHEAST. BUT...LOCAL MM5 FM 06Z AND              
RUC FM 09Z CONTINUE THIS LIGHT PCPN THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ERN FA...              
WITH WHAT SEEMS TO BE TERRAIN-INDUCED SHRA IN SRN PA CONTINUING AS              
WELL. REMEMBER READING DISCS FM OH (PBZ/CLE/ILN) YSTDY AND ALL                  
POINTED OUT THAT CLEARING WAS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THEY HAD BEEN                
LEAD TO BELIEVE. WL FOLLOW THIS EVER SLOWING TREND...AS THE FNT                 
SEEMS TO COME TO A STAND STILL OV OUR ERN FA NOW THIS EVE ON THE                
MDLS...INSTEAD OF CLOSER TO THE COAST.                                          
CURR FCST OF SLOW TO NO CLEARING AND SHOWERS ALL DAY FOR MOST ERN               
AREAS LOOKING ON TRACK. SPEAKING OF TRACKS...CURR NHC TCD PUTS FLOYD            
(AS A TS) INTO CENTRAL PA BY THE WEE HOURS ON FRI. I RECALL (VIA USE            
OF HURR TRACKING SOFTWARE AND OLD FILES) THAT THE DENNIS FCST TRACK             
FOR 72 HRS -AS IT WAS OFF THE OUTER BANKS- TOOK IT INTO RIGHT UP                
INTO CENTL PA AS WELL. OK OK...DENNIS WAS NOT IN THE SAME ENV...NOR             
CAT THAT FLOYD IS NOW. HMMMMM.                                                  
DANGELO                                                                         
 pa                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1017 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                     
OUR POCKET OF FAIR WEATHER IS GETTING SMALLER BUT SHOULD HOLD FOR               
ONE MORE DAY. THE 12Z UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW WEDGE OF             
VERY DRY AIR EAST OF THE MTNS. CONVECTION FIRING ON THE COASTAL                 
FRONT HAS MADE IT AS FAR W AS FAY TO FLO. UNION COUNTY IS THE ONLY              
TROUBLE SPOT FOR THE AFTN HOURS BUT I BELIEVE THAT CONVECTION WL                
STAY WELL E OF OUR COUNTIES.                                                    
SFC FRONT OVER THE MTNS IS HARD TO FIND THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND             
AND AXIS OF HIGHER SFC TO H8 DWPTS INDICATE THAT IT RUNS ROUGHLY                
FROM GEV TO AVL. CLOUDS ALONG THIS BNDRY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING               
AS UPPER SUPPORT PULLS TO THE NORTH AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE              
PER THE 09Z RUC.                                                                
JUST LISTENED TO THE TPC CONFERENCE CALL (THANKS CAE). THEY HAVE                
THE CENTER OF FLOYD JUST E OF CEA BY 48HRS AND THEN TURNING NE...THE            
FIRST TIME THE TRACK HAS BEEN PROGGED TO HAVE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT.            
THIS DIMINISHES THE THREAT A LITTLE...AND WL NOW WAIT UNTIL THE AFTN            
PACKAGE TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.                                                
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 141358  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
345 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS ACRS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TNT   OF FIRST            
CONCERN IS THE STRONG COMPACT VORT OVER SRN MN.  AN ISOLD TSTM WAS              
OBSERVED AT 05Z EARLIER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SD.  ETA/RUC INDICATE A          
COLD H5 CORE OF -24 C WITH THIS FEATURE...TO RCH EC WI AROUND 18Z.  WILL        
HOLD OFF MENTN OF TSTM DUE TO MAY NOT ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOVG           
EWD FAIRLY QUICK.  AFT THIS FEATURE ROTATES THROUGH...SOME BRIEF CLRG IN        
ITS WAKE MAY AGAIN PROVIDE ANOTHER PERIOD OF AFTN HEATING BEFORE THE            
MAIN UPR TROUGH SAGS SWD OVR THE RGN.  COLD AIR ALOFT WITH TROF ROTATING        
SWD MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL DUE TO LOW FREEZING HEIGHTS.  COULD BE A        
DAY OF CAFS AND SPOUTS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.                                
MOIST FLOW CONTS OVER THE RGN TNT INTO WED TO KEEP CLDS ARND.  LATE WED         
UPR TROUGH EXITS RGN BUT COLD SFC HIGH AND H8 HIGH WITH H8 TEMPS OF             
2-4 C MAY PRODUCE SOME FROST FOR NRN WI FOR WED AND THUR NIGHT.                 
.GRB...NONE.                                                                    
HELMAN                                                                          
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMKX 140825  wi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
235 AM CDT WED SEP 15 1999                                                      
06Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING A WEAK TROF/WIND SHIFT LINE ACRS NRN                 
INDIANA SW INTO SERN IL. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACRS THE                     
CNTRL PLAINS STATES EWD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR                 
LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE AREA INFLUENCED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW               
WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ARND THE PERIPHERY OF THE                 
UPPER LOW NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. ONE SUCH FEATURE WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT            
ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP ACRS ERN ND WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING                  
SYSTEM WL PUSH SE INTO WRN IL BY THIS EVENING. SOUNDING DATA AND                
CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE                
PRESENT FROM 900-700 MB LAYER AS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO AREA. MID               
LVL MOISTURE PRESENT SPREADING NEWD INTO CNTRL IL EARLY THIS MORNING            
NEAR EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX AT 250 MB. APPARENTLY ENOUGH LIFT AHD             
OF FEATURE AND SPILL OFF OF MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING ACRS             
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO PRODUCE THE WDSPRD MID LVL DVLPMT. 03Z RUC           
MODEL CONCURS WITH NGM AND ETA IN KEEPING BAND OF MID LVL MOISTURE              
ARND OUR SRN HALF OF CWFA THRU THE MRNG WITH A GRDL PUSH TO THE SOUTH           
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
MODELS STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH SENSIBLE WX ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX              
APPRCHG FROM THE DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DECENT COLD               
POOL ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE BUT MOISTURE DEPTH A REAL PROBLEM FOR              
GENERATING ANY -SHRA LATER TODAY. WL KEEP CURRENT FCST TRENDS AS IS.            
ALL MODELS INDICATING WEAK CAA AT 850 MB TODAY AND AFTER YSTDYS                 
DISASTER WITH THE NUMBERS...WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH GUID AND STAY                
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE FAN/FWCS. AS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST               
THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OVRNGT WITH TEMPS AOB GUID                    
NUMBERS BY THU MRNG. QUIET WX SCENE TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF             
OF THE WEEKEND AS THE NEW EURO MODEL NOW IN LINE WITH MRF IN BRINGING           
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND PRECIP THREAT INTO THE CNTRL US BY                
LATER SUN AND MON.                                                              
...PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...                          
SPI BB 071/044 069/043 071 44000                                                
PIA BB 069/043 067/042 069 44000                                                
DEC BB 071/044 069/043 071 44000                                                
CMI BB 072/043 069/043 070 44000                                                
MTO BB 073/044 071/043 072 44000                                                
LWV BB 074/045 072/044 073 44000                                                
.ILX...                                                                         
IL...NONE.                                                                      
SMITH                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLOT 150714  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
950 AM EST WED SEP 15 1999                                                      
CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE MSTLY SUNNY SO WL UPDATE               
FOR THIS. EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF SWINGING THROUGH SD IS GENERATING             
OVC080 OVER SRN MN.                                                             
MEANWHILE THE BAND OF CLDS IN MO AND CTRL IL IS MEETING WITH DRIER              
AIR ALLOWING ACAS CLDS TO DISSIPATE. LAKE TEMP AND 850 DIFFS AND                
GOOD NW FLOW THIS AFTN WL ALLOW FOR SOME CLDS IN PRONE AREAS.                   
RUC SHOWS DECENT CAA WHICH WL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 70 NORHT TO LWR 70S             
SOUTH.                                                                          
.IWX...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS73 KIND 150837  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1110 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999                                                     
APX 88D SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WITH              
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EAST UPPER         
MICHIGAN. THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN         
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DOMINATED BY LOCAL SCALE EFFECTS. CURRENT         
RAIN SHOWERS AND ENHANCED CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE               
ORIGINS IN LOCATIONS IN WHICH SURFACE WINDS CONVERGE DUE TO LAND                
ORIENTATIONS...AS NOTED BY LAKE BANDS BETWEEN THE MANITOU ISLANDS IN            
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THROUGH THE STRAITS REGION.                          
MODIFIED APX 12Z SOUNDING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SURFACE MOISTURE             
PATTERNS... WHICH GENERATED A CAPE AROUND 170 J/KG AND TT'S TO 35. 12Z          
RUC SHOWING 850 TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AROUND 2C TO 3C THIS AFTERNOON           
WITH 850/700 MB MOISTURE TO REMAIN AROUND 60 TO 70 FOR MUCH OF EAST             
UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER. RUC SHOWING 925 AND 850 MB WINDS TO BE               
WESTERLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND         
320 DEGREES. LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST             
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTS OF EAST UPPER WITH THE BEST             
CHANCE FOR AREAS AROUND GAYLORD...CHARLEVOIX AND KALKASKA WITH THE              
NORTHWEST WIND ORIENTATION.                                                     
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 151500  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999                                                     
SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS ARE ENDING LK ENHANCED PRECIP ALG SUPERIOR             
SHORE FM MUNISING TO WHITEFISH POINT AND CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS THIS             
AFTN.                                                                           
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING 1007MB LOW PRES OVER SRN HUDSON BAY WITH               
SFC TROF EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SAGINAW BAY. TROF ACTING MORE AS A                
WIND SHIFT LINE THAN ANYTHING ELSE AS PER SFC OBS NO PRECIP REPORTED            
IN CONUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT ATTM. MQT 88D CONTINES TO SHOW LGT LK            
ENHANCED SHRA ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE FM MUNISING WEST TO WHITEFISH             
POINT. SHRA ARE VERY LGT W/ 88D ESTIMATED PRECIP OVER LAST 3 HRS                
LESS THAN .10 INCH. DLT/T IN SE LK SUPERIOR ARE AROUND 15 AS 850MB              
TEMPS ARE 2 C WHILE LK TEMPS ARE 17 C. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER             
AS 700-300MB Q-VECTOR DIV BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EFFECTED                
AREA.                                                                           
14Z VIS SAT SHOWS SCT TO BKN CEIL ACROSS MAJORITY OF U.P. WITH MORE             
CLOUDS ALONG THE LK SHORE...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH THE DZ AND LGT                 
SHRA. EXPECT FG REDUCING VIS TO LESS THAN 2MI SHOWING UP OVER                   
INTERIOR WRN U.P. AND BACK INTO NERN MN TO DISSIPATE AS MIXING                  
OCCURS AND WARMS SFC TO 900MB LEVEL...ELIMINATING INVERSION.                    
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS FOR 18Z TO 21Z POINT TO CU DEV OVR MOST OF THE               
U.P. WITH LOWER CEILINGS EAST WHERE CYCLONIC FLOW HANGS ON                      
THROUGHOUT AFTN. CURRENT FCST HAS MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND THIS                
APPEARS RIGHT ON TRACK. WL UPDATE ERN ZONES TO TAPER PRECIP OFF                 
FAIRLY EARLY THIS AFTN AND SHOW IMPROVING TRENDS AS HI PRES BEGINS              
TO INFLUENCE FA.                                                                
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 150841  mi                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
846 AM MDT WED SEP 15 1999                                                      
MINOR TWEAKING IS ABOUT THE ONLY THING NEEDED HERE FOR UPDATES AND              
ESSENTIALLY FOR WINDS. GIST OF GOING FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOOD.  MIXING          
TEMPERATURES AGREE WELL WITH WHAT IS FORECAST PRESENTLY AND AM NOT              
ANTICIPATING CHANGING THESE.                                                    
COMPARING THE RUC RUN FOR 15/12Z AND THE THE ETA RUN FOR 15/00Z YIELDS          
SIMILAR RESULTS IN THE SHORT TERM.  A VORT MAX IS SHOWN OVER MONTANA BY         
BOTH RUNS AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THIS FEATURE AS WELL.  NOT            
MUCH MOISTURE FOR IT TO DO ANYTHING WITH...HOWEVER.  PATTERN ALOFT              
BECOMES ZONAL ACCORDING TO THE RUC RUN AS WELL.  CHB                            
BIL UU 076/046 081/050 080 52000                                                
LVM .. 080/040 083/... ... 52000                                                
HDN .. 078/043 084/... ... 52000                                                
MLS .. 075/046 083/050 ... 52000                                                
4BQ .. 074/042 082/... ... 52000                                                
BHK .. 073/038 077/... ... 52000                                                
SHR UU 075/042 081/044 080 52000                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KMSO 150856  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1034 AM CDT WED SEP 15 1999                                                     
QUITE VIGOROUS WAVE PASSING INTO NW IA WITH WV INDICATING STG SUBSIDENCE        
SIGNATURE IN FAR SE SD IN WAKE.  MID CLDS PREVAIL...AND WHAT FEW SPRINKLES      
WERE...ARE NO MORE. OTHER MID CLDS THRU SCNTRL SD WHERE RUC INDICATES           
MID LVL RH PLUME AND WAA IN SCNTRL SD.  LTL MORE ENHANCEMENT IN COVERAGE        
EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND MAY BE RESULT OF LTL COOLER AIR AND GREATER          
INSTABILITY ABV MOIST LAYER INDUCED BY PASSING WAVE.  TEMPERATURES ARE          
ONLY REAL ISSUE.  RUC 85H TMPS...WK SFC FLOW...AND LTL EXPECTED CLOUDS          
ALL LEAD TO RANGES IN GOING FCST. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS MORE THAN                
REASONABLE...AND MAY CLEAN UP VALID PAST WEATHER IN NEXT HOUR OR SO.            
NO SIG UPDTS NEEDED.                                                            
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 151446  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
746 AM CDT WED SEP 15 1999                                                      
06Z RUC MODEL SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY             
SHOULD KEEP ITS IDENTITY LONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON             
HOURS.  88D TRENDS FROM KDYS AND KSJT SHOW A SLOW BACK BUILDING DOWN            
A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN            
CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEARTLAND COUNTIES.  WILL ISSUE UPDATED ZONES             
TO INCLUDE POPS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS...AND WILL BUMP UP POPS           
FOR THE BIG COUNTRY.                                                            
20                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KFWD 151053 AMD  tx                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
300 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999                                                      
A LITTLE SPEED MAX SHOWED UP NICELY IN THE WATER VAPOR WINDS AND                
THE 00 UTC RUC MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO EASTERN NEW             
YORK. THIS FEATURE ALIGNED WELL WITH THE VORT CENTER MOVING INTO                
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT...SETTING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED             
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.                
HAVE ADDED EARLY MORNING PERIOD TO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS             
ZONES TO HANDLE THIS.                                                           
WEAK FRONT TO STALL TODAY FROM THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY INTO                
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...LEAVING MORE CLOUDS IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN             
VERMONT.  HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING CLOUDS TREND IN WESTERN ZONES.            
FRONTAL FORCING WEAK FOR NO MENTION OF POPS IN ANY ZONES TODAY.  MAX            
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM UPPER 60S IN THE DACKS TO THE LOWER TO MID           
70S IN WESTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.                                             
TRYING TO USE SOME REASONABLE COMBINATION OF ETA/AVN/NESTED MODELS...           
WILL ESTIMATE THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF TROPICAL-BASED                        
PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTY OVERNIGHT.  LOW              
CHANCE OF PRECIP AT BEST IN NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AND THE DACKS.  LESS           
CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.  MIN                  
TEMPERATURES 50 TO 60F.                                                         
PRECIP LIKELY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT                 
UNCERTAINTY OF FLOYD'S TRACK LEAVES ME WITH NO CHOICE BUT TO CONTINUE           
ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  CLOUDS WILL KEEP           
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.                                                    
3 TO 5 DAY...THANKS BUFFALO FOR HELPFUL COORDINATION.  WILL BUMP ALL            
ZONES' POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  HAVE WORDED               
PRECIP AS RAIN IN VERMONT AND AS SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.  WILL            
ALSO ADD BREEZY WORDING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS NORTHERLY              
GRADIENT INCREASES.  THE COMPARATIVELY SLOW AVN STORM TRACK TAKES               
PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL GO WITH A               
CLEARING TREND FOR SATURDAY PERIOD.                                             
ST. JEAN                                                                        
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBTV 150143  vt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
247 PM CDT WED SEP 15 1999                                                      
...GLOBALLY...                                                                  
GLOBAL WATER VAPOR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 100+ KNOT JET              
RUNNING FROM THE DATELINE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDENCES OF CHINA            
WHILE A THREE WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE. A JET OF            
90-100 KNOTS WAS RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE                  
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO ABOUT 20W. TWO POWERFUL SHORTWAVES ARE ASSOCIATED             
WITH THE PACIFIC JET...THE LEAD ONE IN THE BERING SEA WITH THE                  
SECOND APPROACHING THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THESE SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH A            
SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND ANOTHER NORTH OF HUDSON              
BAY WILL PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLES IN THE AREAS WEATHER OVER THE COMING            
WEEK.                                                                           
FLOYD AND GERT ARE THE KEY TO THE OVERALL TIMING OF EVERYTHING.                 
FLOYD HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONTINENT DOWN              
AND ONCE FLOYD SPEEDS UP GERT SHOULD BE TURNING NORTH AND SLOWING               
SYSTEMS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. THE TROPICS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PROMISING              
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT NEAR BERMUDA (WHICH WOULD BE HARVEY) AND OFF            
THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC (WHICH WOULD BE HILARY).             
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD TAKE SEVERAL DAYS WITH HARVEY               
PROBABLY OCCURING FIRST.                                                        
PACIFIC JET AND SHORTWAVES TO EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN THE WEST COAST              
RIDGE IN TIME ALLOWING THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE TO               
DIVE FURTHER SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH              
THIS SENARIO WHICH WOULD DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE AREA AND                
HAVE IT DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND THEN EAST.                                       
NET RESULT HERE IS DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES            
APPROACHING NORMAL AND THEN GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT                 
WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING THIS CUT OFF MEANS NOT MUCH IN THE              
WAY OF MOISTURE SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE AROUND OR BELOW              
NORMAL.                                                                         
...LOCALLY...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA HAVE A NICE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH              
NORTHERN IOWA WITH ANOTHER ACROSS MONTANA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS                
PLENTY OF COLD WEATHER SC/CU THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE COLD AIR POOL            
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SURROUNDING 88D SITES INDICATE NO                
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITH THE BETTER DEVELOPED CLOUDS ACROSS              
NORTHERN IOWA AND THE 15Z RUC SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY QG FORCING.                   
HOWEVER THERE IS AN AREA OF LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN             
THIS AREA. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH IN NORTHWEST IOWA WITH A             
RIDGE AXIS RUNNING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE IOWA SHORTWAVE WAS            
REFLECTED ON THE SURFACE AS A WEAK TROF RUNNING FROM KEAU TO KFOD.              
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE NEAR SHORT TERM PRECIP CHANCES THEN                   
CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES AND THEN WHEN TO REINTRODUCE RAIN AGAIN.                    
SERIOUS AWIPS PROBLEMS AND A MOLASSES INTERNET HAS MADE THE FORECAST            
A REAL CHALLENGE.                                                               
OF THE 12Z MODELS THE AVN INITIALIZED AND IS VERIFYING THE BEST AT              
18Z. UNFORTUNATELY ITS THE MODEL THAT HAS THE MOST GRIDS MISSING IN             
AWIPS. SINCE THE ETA WAS SLOWER THAN THE NGM I/LL GO WITH IT AND                
THEN SLOW IT DOWN ABOUT 12 HOURS WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE IN                
LINE WITH THE MISSING AVN. SOOO HERE WE GO. 15Z AND 18Z RUC                     
INCREASE THE QG FORCING OF THE IOWA SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE            
FORECAST AREA. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME -SHRA/--RA TO                 
DEVELOP BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DON/T REALLY LOWER AT                
ALL. BOTH RUC RUNS INDICATE PLENTY OF DOWNWARD MOTION BY 00Z SO IF              
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP IT SHOULDN/T LAST MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO                
AFTER ZONE ISSUANCE. AFTER THAT RH FIELDS REMAIN LOW SO A MOSTLY                
CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD WITH SOME AREAS OF PARTLY                 
CLOUDY POSSIBLE. COLD POOL TO STILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY                
WITH COLD WEATHER SC/CU DEVELOPING BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS TODAY.             
DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS             
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.                                                         
SINCE THE NGM WAS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS I HAVE THROWN OUT THE               
FWC AS BEING TOO WARM. FAN NUMBERS ARE A MUCH BETTER STARTING POINT             
AND BASED ON LAST NIGHT WILL LIKELY GO LOWER THAN WHAT FAN                      
INDICATES. TRAJECTORY METHOD ARGUES FOR GOING COOLER AND WILL FOLLOW            
AS SUCH. QUESTION IS WHETHER TO MENTION ANY FROST. MT CARROLL...                
FAIRBANK...AND ELIZABETH REPORTED 32...33...34 RESPECTIVELY THIS AM             
SO IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS              
IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.                                       
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
FLOYD TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERIC BRAKE ON INTO THE EXTENDED AND BY THE             
TIME HE ALLOWS EVERYTHING TO MOVE AGAIN GERT WILL HAVE TURNED NORTH             
RESULTING IN ANOTHER SLOW DOWN. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE NEXT SYSTEM              
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY MONDAY TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER              
12Z RUN OF NOGAPS WAS A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER THAN ITS 00Z RUN.            
ADDITIONALLY THE 00Z RUN OF MRFX WAS SLOWER THAN THE MRF. THEREFORE             
WILL PUSH PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND I                
WOULDN/T BE SUPRISED IF THE PRECIP DIDN/T OCCUR UNTIL MONDAY.                   
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...AND ILX.                                     
ZONES WILL LIKELY BE LATE BUT SHOULD BE OUT BY 400 PM.                          
.DVN...NONE.                                                                    
NC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLOT 151949  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
219 PM CDT WED SEP 15 1999                                                      
WEAK 5H SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH SPAWNED AM CONVECTION NOW SHEARING               
OUT FOR ENCOUNTERING CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS. IMPLIED             
SUBSIDENCE... AS SEEN IN THE RUC 100H-85H AND 7H-3H DIV Q FIELDS...             
PROMOTING CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY PER VISIBLE IMAGERY.                  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY FROM MERTZON AND                      
CHRISTOVAL... TO PAINT ROCK AND COLEMAN. WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF                 
NEGATIVE 3 AND NO CAP... SURMISE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL            
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...           
THEN PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. WE/LL TAKE A PEEK AT THE LOCAL WARNING             
RADARS BEFORE ISSUING NEW PACKAGE. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SMALL POP FOR            
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND.                                                
OTHERWISE... 5H SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST COLORADO IS ALSO PROGD TO                
SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT ZONE. NGM/AVN Q VECTOR AND                 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS HINT AT ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR           
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.          
WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ORIENTED NW-SE... THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF            
THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION COULD CLIP THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT              
AND EARLY THURSDAY.                                                             
ELSEWHERE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT               
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.                                                  
THE MRF PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY             
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN... THE DYNAMICS ARE RATHER TAME... SO              
AM NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT RAIN CHANCES. BEFOREHAND... ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF MID SEPTEMBER SUNSHINE.           
PRELIMS..                                                                       
ABI 063/086/064/088 2200                                                        
SJT 062/088/063/092 1-00                                                        
JCT 061/087/062/091 1-00                                                        
.SJT...NONE.                                                                    
17                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 151856  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION - UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM                             
1032 AM MDT WED SEP 15 1999                                                     
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
RUC DOING BEST JOB OF CAPTURING H5 PVA OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WHICH IS            
KICKING OFF "PUFF"-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS OVER W CENT AZ. THESE SHOULD              
MAINLY STAY NORTH OF FA BUT LIKE SMOKE PLUME THE STORMS ARE VARYING             
IN NORTH-SOUTH EXTENT WITH EACH "WAVE" SO CAN'T RULE OUT NRN                    
PORTIONS OF GRANT..SIERRA..OTERO SEEING BRIEF THUNDERSTORM NEXT FEW             
HOURS. SOME SPRINKLES VCNTY DMN ATTM BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENUF TO AMEND          
FCST.                                                                           
.ELP...NONE                                                                     
02                                                                              
N                                                                               
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 151621  tx