WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
145 PM MDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
INCOMING UPPER LOW MAKING SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY THAN                
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AT 18Z LOW APPEARED TO BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN            
NV IN VICINITY OF EKO. SHORT TERM MODELS NOT OFFERING SOLID GUIDANCE            
FROM THAT POINT FORWARD WITH ETA TRACKING THE LOW SOUTHEAST INTO                
CENTRAL UT THEN THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA WEDNESDAY WHILE                 
AVN...NGM AND RUC TAKE IT THROUGH UT PANHANDLE AND ACROSS NORTHERN              
PORTION OF CWA. CONSIDERING CURRENT LOCATION...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER            
FEATURES TO STEER THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH...AM LEANING WITH THE MORE           
NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS. OF THESE...NGM WANTS TO KICK THE SYSTEM EASTWARD           
MORE QUICKLY THAN AVN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SYSTEM ALREADY MOVING             
MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED...SO MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY IS AVN.                    
WIND CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARY FOCUS OF FORECAST PACKAGE. JET MAX                 
COVERED MOST OF CWA THIS MORNING AND AS LOW MOVING INLAND SLOWLY                
EXPECTED TO BE OVER CWA AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY           
IN PLACE FOR ENTIRE CWA TODAY...AND TO BE EXTENDED AT LEAST INTO                
EVENING HOURS. WILD HORSE GULCH UT JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AT               
19Z...WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND MAY UPGRADE PORTIONS OF ADVISORY                 
TO WARNING. ALSO RED FLAG WARNING OUT THROUGH THE EVENING FOR CENTRAL           
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CO. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BACKSIDE OF             
LEADING EDGE OF TROUGH MOVING INTO CWA WITH JET INTO EASTERN CO WHICH           
SHOULD KEEP WIND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUBTROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE           
HAS BEEN SHUNTED EASTWARD WITH DRY SLOT WORKING OVER CWA TODAY.                 
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE ALREADY WRAPPED INTO LOW TO SET OFF                   
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NV AND ID. WITH SEVERAL SMALL BUT IMPRESSIVE                 
VORTICITY CENTERS EMBEDDED IN LOW...BELIEVE CHANCES FOR WRAP AROUND             
PRECIP STILL VALID AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A CATEGORY WEDNESDAY IN               
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. DYNAMICS LINGER OVER CWA THROUGH THURSDAY AND              
SPLIT DEVELOPS IN FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF AT LEAST                 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TEMPERATURES...700MB            
TEMPS DROP FROM APPROX 12C MONDAY AFTERNOON TO APPROX 2C WEDNESDAY              
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TO BE NOTABLY COOLER AND BELIEVE CURRENT TREND             
OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLING APPROPRIATE.                                        
FOR EXTENDED...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER EASTERN PACIFIC           
UNTIL LATE IN EXTENDED WHEN IT BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. PATTERN                
KEEPS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO CWA THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD                 
PREVENTING A DRAMATIC WARMUP...BUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO               
SEASONAL NORMALS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ALONG FLOW            
PASSING THROUGH CWA...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME MOST APPEAR TO BE                    
RELATIVELY WEAK LIKELY CAUSING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TIME BEING WILL KEEP PACKAGE AS IS WITH MENTION              
OF SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH WEEKEND.                                              
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A HIGH LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS THIS EVENING DUE TO STRONG                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS.                                                                
.GJT...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT.                
GL                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
FEW SHRA MOVING S ACROSS COASTAL WATERS MAY MOVE ONSHROE ALONG                  
VOLUSIA CTY SOON. MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN A BIT DRIER THAN                     
YESTERDAY BUT STILL QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS MUCH LESS              
THAN YSTRDY. NOT CU ALREADY FORMING OVER COASTAL CTYS ATTM. CAPE                
VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG ACHIEVED AT TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW 80S.                    
WHILE CURRENT FCST IS DRY XCPT S SECTIONS IT WAS BASED ON NGM                   
POSITION OF SHORT WAVE AXIS MOVING THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALFT. IT                  
APPEARS ETA/RUC SOLUTION IS MORE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT WATER VAPOR              
IMGRY WITH SMALL WV MOVING THRU THE GREAT BEND AREA. RESULT IS AIRMASS          
WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AT LEAST UNTIL THIS FEATURE PULLS                          
THROUGH...EARLY AFTERNOON N PORTIONS AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY S              
PARTS. W/ LOW LEVEL NE FLOW THE ECSB WILL BE DIFFUSE AND MOVE                   
QUICKLY INLAND...HOWEVER MEAN STEERING FLOW ABV BNDRY LYR IS FM THE             
NW AND ACTVTY HAS A CHC OF MAKING ITS WAY BACK TO THE COASTAL CTYS.             
WILL ADD POPS TO ALL ZONES WITH LESS THAN 20 N AND UP TO 30 OVER S              
SECTIONS. HAIL THREAT STILL EXISTS WITH COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS BUT                
COMPARED TO YSTRDY WE LACK FNTL BNDRY...SOME MOISTURE AND                       
ORGANIZATION TO ECSB.                                                           
FIRE WX...NO PROBLEMS AS AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST.                                 
MARINE...HO HIGHLIGHTS. PGRAD INDICATES WNDS SHOULD PICK UP THIS                
AFTN.                                                                           
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOTTMAN                                                        
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...WIMMER                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
303 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THUNDERSTORM THREAT TONIGHT AND                     
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...                                                  
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE CWA               
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WAS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OUT IN THE              
HIGH PLAINS OF CO WITH WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL            
OKLAHOMA AT 18Z. 17Z HBR PROFILER HAD 700 MB TEMPS AROUND 13 TO 14              
DEGREES AT 700 MB...SO WARM AIR ALOFT NOT FAR AWAY.                             
WARM FRONT SHOULD SET UP ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER BY LATE EVENING              
AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM AIR SHOWN BY ETA            
TO SURGE NORTH IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAP ATMOSPHERE OFF SOUTH OF THE            
FRONT OVER KANSAS...UNTIL THEN WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR POPS GOING                 
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN NEBRASKA...CORFIDI VECTORS                  
SUGGEST THAT PROPAGATION WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST              
NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST               
POPS THERE. BEST SHEAR WILL BE NEAR WARM FRONT TONIGHT WITH SVR                 
THREAT MAINLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER INTO NEBRASKA.                           
WEDNESDAY...UPPER SYSTEM PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND RUC FORECAST             
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAP OVER THE CWA WILL WEAKEN IN THE                  
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO               
DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL               
KANSAS AND PROPAGATE EAST AND FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS              
ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN THREAT LOOKS LIKE HAIL AND WIND THROUGH                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM            
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ON                    
THURSDAY WILL YIELD A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH                  
SHOWERS.                                                                        
WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS              
EXPECTED LIKE TODAY SO AROUND 85 ACROSS THE BOARD. WILL LEAN TOWARD             
THE WARMER FAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.                                 
.TOP...NONE.                                                                    
JW                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
240 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER CO WILL HAVE INDIRECT IMPACT ON AREAS                  
WEATHER THIS PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS               
OK/AR PORTIONS OF AREA PROGGED BY RUC AND OTHER MODELS TO RAPIDLY               
DISSIPATE BY 0Z. HOWEVER...WITH REDEVELOPMENT STILL OCCURRING                   
UPSTREAM IN OK...WILL BE PRUDENT TO LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT DURING                  
EVENING ACROSS THESE AREAS. AFTERWARDS...DRYING WILL AFFECT EVEN                
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS S-SW LOW LEVEL JET COMING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE             
GULF HIGH. ETA VALUES OF NEAR 95 PERCENT IN BOUNDARY LAYER                      
CORRESPONDED TO LATE DEVELOPMENT LOW CLOUDS IN EAST TX LAST NIGHT.              
TONIGHTS PROGGED MAX HUMIDITY 80 PERCENT IN SAME AREA SO AM GOING TO            
LEAVE OUT MENTION LOW CLOUDS. USING SAME REASONING WILL REINSERT                
LOW CLOUDS SOUTH HALF WED NIGHT. WITH MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ON WED           
WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR WEAK DRYLINE TO THE WEST...GO PTCLDY            
NE TX WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WED EVENING. FIRST REAL FORCING SEEN           
LATER ON THU AND CONFINED NORTH SECTIONS. WEEKEND MAY BE UNCERTAIN              
EXTENDED AS VERY HEAVY QPF PROGGED DESPITE A LACK OF FEATURES ON                
HEIGHT CONTOURS.                                                                
SHV 65/90/71/88  0022      TYR 64/88/71/85  0032                                
MLU 66/91/70/91  1001      LFK 67/92/73/89  0011                                
TXK 67/88/69/86  2023                                                           
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
VII                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                     
ALMOST DECIDED NOT TO GO W/ AN UPDATE THIS EVENING...BUT AREA OF LOW            
CLOUDS DRIFTING N TWD MNM CNTY FROM THE BAY OF GREEN BAY IS A                   
CONCERN. 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWS MOIST LYR FM 992 TO 910MB W/ ENUF OF            
AN INVERSION ABV TO TRAP LYR OF MSTR. RUC MODEL SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE            
MSTR BEST...SHOWG 80 TO 85 PCNT AREA WHERE LOW CLDS ARE. 00Z RUC/18Z            
ETA WNDS LGT SE (VEERING SW) FLOW FM SFC THRU 925MB SHD PUSH THESE              
CLDS NWD TNT. WL FCST INCRSG CLDS MNM CNTY. ALSO WORRIED ABT                    
DELTA/MANISTIQUE COUNTIES...BUT NRN FRINGE OF CLDS UPSTREAM APR TO              
BE FRAYING A BIT. WL INTRODUCE CLDS ALG THE LAKESHORE LATE.                     
OTRW...NO MAJOR CONCERNS. TEMPS ON TRACK FOR CRNTLY FCST LOWS AND               
INCRS CNDS W ZONES STILL LOOK GOOD.                                             
MQT...NONE.                                                                     
DESROSIERS                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1010 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                     
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEARING NOSING EASTWARD TO JUST WEST OF                   
SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MI. THIS TREND SHOULD                          
CONTINUE...EXCEPT WHERE FOG/STRATUS FORMS...WHICH IS LIKELY GIVEN               
CLOSE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND.            
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...CLOUDS MORE RELUCTANT TO GO. RUC DOES HANG               
ONTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MORE AGGRESSIVELY IN THE NORTH THAN IN THE              
SOUTH TOO...TO SUPPORT CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.  WILL               
HIT FAR SOUTH HARDER FOR FOG...NORTH MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. WILL               
MENTION DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT EXPECT WINDS THOUGH            
LIGHT TO BE ENOUGH TO LIFT UP A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO                 
STRATUS.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE.                                                         
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
DWD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
823 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
RADAR LOOPS SHOW RAINFALL PEELING SWIFTLY AWAY OUT OF THE CWA. STILL            
SOME DRIZZLE AROUND YET FOR A FEW HOURS...AS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP RETREATS OFF TO THE EAST. WILL                  
UPDATE FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE YET THIS EVENING AND ADJUST WINDS TO                
LIGHT...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE AT THIS TIME. WITH EARLIER MODEL                
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH                
STABLE LAYER ALOFT TONIGHT...AM NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL              
DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE CWA...THOUGH LATEST RUC WOULD POINT TOWARD             
SOME CLEARING. RECENT RAIN WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF               
FOG/STRATUS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE AS IS AND                 
WATCH FOR TRENDS REMAINDER OF EVENING.                                          
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
DWD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1134 AM EDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                     
TWO MAIN CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON ZONES.  WILL TIME THE ENDING OF               
THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST.  ALSO...WILL DROP OFF                      
TEMPERATURES TO 55 TO 60.                                                       
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS NOW MOVING OFF THE WISCONSIN COAST...AND               
SHOULD REACH MKG AROUND 1 TO 2 PM...GRR 2 TO 3 PM AND LAN 3 TO 4 PM.            
TOOK OUT THUNDER AS NO OBS OR LDS SHOWED SUCH ACTIVITY THIS AM.  NO             
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED EITHER.  CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES                 
DOWN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING               
SEEN IN SW WI WILL...MAY WORK INTO MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTN               
PER THE LATEST RUC...BUT WILL KEEP THE CLOUD WORDING AS MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY...BASED UPON THE ETA TIMESECTION.                                        
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1035 AM EDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                     
AFTN FCST CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPS.                                        
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING SE INTO THE LWR LAKES            
REGION. N PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED -RA SHIELD HAS MOVED SE OF FA. TO             
THE NW...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO CNTRL MANITOBA AND WON'T             
BE A FACTOR THIS AFTN. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS MSUNNY SKIES ACROSS N 1/2              
OF FA WITH GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER S 1/2.                          
FA THIS AFTN WILL BE POSITIONED IN LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET                  
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH LWR LAKES SHORTWAVE. RESULTING                           
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE CLOUD COVER OVER S FA THIS             
AFTN. HOWEVER...12Z RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN             
THE 55-60 RANGE. SO EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SOME HIGHER               
BASED FLAT CU.                                                                  
LIGHT GRADIENT WIND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LK            
SUPERIOR THIS AFTN WILL ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT                
FCST ADDRESSES THIS WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKES. INLAND...                 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z RUC/ETA INDICATE MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR               
60S IF MIXING OCCURS TO AROUND 800MB OR SO. THIS IS IN LINE WITH                
GOING FCST. MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS/SKY CONDITION WILL BE MADE ON                
UPDATE.                                                                         
MQT...NONE.                                                                     
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
830 PM MDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
...NO UPDATE TO TFX ZONE FORECASTS...                                           
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER N CENTRAL MT KEEPING BULK OF DYNAMICS/MOISTURE S          
OF A GTF-LWT LINE THIS EVE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE PRETTY CONSISTENT          
WITH THIS SOLTN. NEW ETA INITIALIZES STRONGER UVV AT 00Z...BUT WEAKENS          
IT RAPIDLY BY 06Z. LATEST RUC HAS NO SURPRISES KEEPING MOIST/UVV OVER           
SRN PORTIONS OF CWA. CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THAT ANY LOW/MID LVL MOIST         
REACHING CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF CWA WILL OVERRUN CANADIAN HI               
PUSHING OUT OF ALTA/SASK. FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE COOLER AMS HAVING DIFFICULT        
TIME CROSSING THE BDR...AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER SRN               
PORTIONS OF CWA...SO WILL STAY WITH CURRENT FCST. EYSSAUTIER                    
GTF BB 040/068 042/068 049 042112                                               
CTB BN 038/066 042/066 045 041121                                               
HLN BB 042/066 042/068 044 045112                                               
BZN EB 043/065 040/067 042 047312                                               
WEY EB 036/057 028/059 032 048512                                               
DLN EB 041/065 039/067 040 046212                                               
HVR BB 040/070 041/072 045 041112                                               
LWT BB 040/064 037/066 046 043112                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ... UPDATE                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1052 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                     
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS              
DIMINISHED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.            
EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATED A VERY STRONG CAP CENTERED AROUND 750 MB            
AT TOP...WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER BUT STILL EFFECTIVE CAP AT OAX.  AS             
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...AS SHOWN BY                 
PROFILERS...MID TEENS 850 DEW POINTS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA                    
OVERNIGHT.  THE MESOETA INDICATES THAT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN GREATLY              
BY 09Z WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  THIS SEEMS                
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RUC               
SOLUTION OF THE CAP WEAKENING MORE IN THE NORTH.  HI PWS ALSO                   
INDICATE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY IF THE CAP DOES BREAK...BUT THIS                
WOULD BE WELCOME IN MOST AREAS.                                                 
SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW APPEARS TO REMAIN INTACT...BUT UPDATED               
THE SOUTHEAST FOR LOWER POPS BOTH TONIGHT AND WED MORNING...AND MADE            
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE.                                                    
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
POLLACK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
113 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...                  
RUC NAILED THIS MORNING/S SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN LOUP COUNTY ALONG A             
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENCED BY SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDING FROM OGA            
TO ONL. PRECIP DID NOT EXPAND...HOWEVER...AS RUC INDICATED IT WOULD             
INITIALLY. LATEST RUC HAS REFLECTED DRIER TREND.  STRONG EAST                   
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB INDICATE THAT WARM FRONT MAY STILL            
BE TO THE SOUTH IN NORTHERN KANSAS. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO                       
GRADUALLY RISE...WITH 61 DEWPOINT ALREADY AS FAR NORTH AS HLC.                  
NGM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS A BUST THE MOMENT IT CAME IN THIS                  
MORNING.  LBF WAS AT 73 ALREADY AT 15Z WITH GOOD MIXING...BUT FWC HAD           
US UP TO ONLY 71 BY 18Z.  ETA IS A LITTLE BETTER WITH 18Z TEMP                  
PROGGED AT 78 TO 79 WITH A DEWPOINT OF 57. ETA HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN              
CONSISTENCY ALSO. NGM SHOWING USUAL NORTHWARD BIAS IN PLACING THE LOW           
THROUGH PERIOD UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY WHEN NGM AND ETA COME TOGETHER                
AGAIN. AVN PLACEMENT IS BETWEEN ETA AND NGM...AND PREFER A BLEND OF             
THESE TWO FOR FORECAST.                                                         
IF 7H WARM FRONT FORECAST PLACEMENT VERIFIES...THEN IT                          
APPEARS 700MB CAP WILL BE TOO WARM IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT NOT IN           
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR CONVECTION.  MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE ON                   
THIS SOLUTION...KEEPING LBF DRY.  ETA-DERIVED VTN SOUNDING INDICATES            
GOOD PARAMETERS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z                
WED...PERHAPS TORNADIC...BASED ON HODOGRAPH. STORMS THAT DEVELOP                
SHOULD BE PRETTY SLOW MOVERS...AND PW AROUND 1 INCH. LATEST ETA/S               
INDICATE CONVECTION STARTING ALONG THE DRY LINE AT 00Z FROM DDC                 
THROUGH NORTHEAST CO TO EAST CENTRAL WY...WITH ANOTHER AREA                     
INITIATING AT THAT SAME TIME IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...ASSOCIATED             
WITH VORT MAX AT 5H.  BY 03Z PRECIP HAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF             
THE PANHANDLE (EXCEPT NEAR SNY) INTO WESTERN HALF OF CHERRY COUNTY.             
IF 7H LOW TRENDS FARTHER SOUTH...THEN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN            
LBF TO OGA AREA WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.  FROM 06Z ON...JUST NORTH OF           
THE WARM FRONT. THINK THAT POPS ARE WARRANTED OVER ENTIRE CWA...WITH            
LOWER ONES FOR SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CAP. THIS IS IN              
LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL.  AM ANTICIPATING SPC TO DROP A             
WATCH BOX WHICH WILL LIKELY COVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA BY 00Z OR SO             
(PROBABLY A TOR)...DEPENDING ON WHEN THINGS FIRE.                               
FOR WED...ETA SHOWS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN                         
ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING (12Z.) LOW IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTHEAST OF              
MCK IN KS AT THAT TIME...THEN REDEVELOPS FURTHER WEST IN NORTHEAST              
COLORADO BY 15Z WED IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT                   
ACROSS CENTRAL CO...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF MCK...              
NORTHEAST TO LINCOLN NEB. AVN SHOWS IT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. AVN              
SHOWS LARGE (AND PROBABLY SOMEWHAT OVERDONE) AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS              
ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT 12Z.  AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES            
TO DEEPEN OVER NORTHEAST CO DURING THE DAY...PRECIP BEGINS TO SPREAD            
SOUTH AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW.  ETA SHOWS SURFACE LOW FARTHER                
EAST ALONG KS/NEB BORDER. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL TO               
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVN SHOWS TRIPLE POINT             
VERY NEAR LBF AT 00Z THURSDAY. DAY 2 OUTLOOK PUTS LBF AND THEDFORD IN           
THE MODERATE RISK...AND AREAS EAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS APPEARS TO             
BE A PRETTY GOOD BET.                                                           
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COVER MOST OF FA THROUGH THURSDAY...FINALLY                 
EXITING BY MIDNIGHT (06Z) FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.                     
EXTENDED...MRF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST UKMO.  ECMWF HAS            
SIMILAR PATTERN BUT ABOUT A DAY FASTER THAN MRF AND UKMO.  PREFER               
MRF AND UKMO SOLUTION FOR TIMING FEATURES.  FRI AND SAT LOOK DRY AS             
MOST ACTIVITY STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH                     
PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA FRIDAY.  LEE SIDE TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP                 
SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NOT LIFT UNTIL SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST.                 
SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW IN CANADA DRAGS ITS WAY EAST              
ACROSS NEBRASKA EXTENDING FROM OGA TO VTN AT 12Z...MOVING TO OMA BY             
00Z. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WOULD NOT BE UNTIL                  
AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LBF THROUGH BBW TO ANW AND              
ONL.  WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THOSE AREAS SUNDAY. WORDING              
IT AS SLIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING.                                      
.LBF...NONE                                                                     
SLM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
328 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AREA OF PRECIP OVR LWR MI OHIO AND IND WEAKENING             
AS IT MOVES EAST INTO DRIER AIR ESPCLY ON NORTHERN PTN. RUC SEEMS TO            
BE OVERDOING NORTHERN PTN OF PRECIP OVR LK ONT THIS EVENING. WILL               
MENTION SPRINKLES EAST OF LK ONT AND OVR THE IAG FRONTIER AND A 30              
POP THIS EVE OVR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BUT KEEP FINGER LKS REGION           
DRY OVRNGT.                                                                     
WEDGE OF DRIER AIR MOVES IN OVR THE AREA DURING WED. WILL DROP                  
MENTION OF SHWR.                                                                
WED NGT WARM FRNT MOVES NE WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRNG 700VV            
OVR THE REGION AFT 06Z. WILL GO WITH LKLY POPS AFT MIDNGT AND A                 
CHANCE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. PROFILES SHOW STRNG LOW LVL JET AS WELL            
LTR WED NGT ESPCLY NR NY-PA BORDER. MENTIONED BREEZY OVR HILLS OF               
SOUTHERN TIER.                                                                  
ETA THE FASTEST WITH MOVEMENT OF COLD FRNT INTO WNY BY THU MRNG WITH            
AVN MOVING IT THROUGH THU AFTN. WILL GO WITH COMPROMISE SOLUTION. CAT           
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE REGION ON THU.                                           
GUID TEMPS CLOSE AND GENLY FOLLOWED.                                            
WRKZONES AVBL UNDER BUFADMBUF.                                                  
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
JJP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
950 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
DISC: LATEST LOOK FROM MESO ETA AND RUC2 COMPOSITE SUPPORT THE                  
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BUT THEY MAY TAKE SOME TIME ARRIVING. VORT              
MAX MOVING THRU WATER VAPOR IMAG AT 30KT. 95% MEAN RH AHEAD OF VORT             
MAX OVER WVA INTO SW PA WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THE MTNS. CAA AT 50H MAY            
BE ENUF TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTM EXTREME SRN END OF CFA             
BUT NOT QUITE TO THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL ADD MENTION OF A TSTM IN              
SRN ERN MD ZNS AND SRN DEL.                                                     
ON THE MARINE...SCA MAY BE NEED ON THU. 88-D FROM OKX SHOWS WHAT                
LOOKS LIKE SEA RETURN. (POINTED OUT BE CO-WORKER BG). GOES SOUNDING             
DATA AT 01Z SHOWED LO LVL INVERSION AROUND 900MB. AIR TEMP AT                   
AMBROSE 57 OVER 55 DEG WATER. DUCTING SHOWING SOME SEA RETURN LOOKING           
SIM TO GRAV WAVES. PERIOD OF WAVES AT AMROSE 4 SEC WITH STIFF SRLY              
WIND(ALTHO ELEVATED)WHILE IN THE OPEN WATER OF BUOY 44009 11                    
SECONDS.                                                                        
OTHERWISE...SEE YA AT 3 AM.                                                     
.PHI...NONE.                                                                    
EBERWINE                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC LOW PRES OVER S WY LATE THIS                 
AFTN. ALL 3 MDLS SHOW THIS LOW PRES MOVG E ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT              
AND DEEPENING QUITE RAPIDLY THRU THE DAY ON WED. FOR TONIGHT...THE              
MDLS...INCLUDING THE RUC...SHOW S/W ENERGY AND WAA LIFT AFFECTING               
THE CWA LATER THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY                  
SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALSO BE ADVECTED IN ON THE            
WAA WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MDLS DONT INDICATE VERY WELL THE               
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS INSTABILITY. SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS SHOW            
CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG ACROSS C AND NC SD LATE THIS AFTN. THEREFORE               
...WITH THE LIFT MOVG IN FROM THE SW...EXPECT SCT TO NMRS SHRAS AND             
TSRAS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE ABR CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT.              
ALSO...E TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SFC PRES GRAD TIGHTENS UP             
TONIGHT. WITH INCREASING MEAN RH...CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH            
THIS EVENING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THE WINDS STAYING UP AND DWPTS             
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO FAR TONIGHT.              
FOR WED...SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF            
THE MRNG AS S/W AND WAA LIFT WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE CLOUDY             
AND COOLER THAN TODAY AS BIG SFC LOW MOVES INTO S NEB AND DEEPENS.              
THIS WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. LIKE THE AVN              
AND ETA MDLS ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST.                 
FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS...SFC LOW MOVES E AND SE AND WEAKENS QUITE A            
BIT BY 00Z FRI. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA             
WILL OCCUR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS MRNG AS STRONG WAA AND UPPER                 
DYNAMICS AFFECT THE CWA. THE N PART OF THE CWA FROM MBG TO ABR TO               
ETH WILL HAVE A LESSER CHC OF RAIN DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE LOW               
AND BEST LIFT. IT SHOULD REMAIN WINDY THROUGH WED NIGHT AND MUCH OF             
THURS. SFC HIGH PRES...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL END THE RAIN               
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURS WITH SKIES BCMG P/C ACROSS                
THE N PART OF THE CWA. WHERE THE SUN COMES OUT ACROSS THE N AND                 
C...THE TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER. WENT GENERALLY HIGHER ON POPS THAN                
GUID THROUGH THIS FORECAST AND LOWER ON DAYTIME HIGHS AND HIGHER ON             
NIGHTTIME LOWS.                                                                 
...EXTENDED DISCUSSION...                                                       
THERE IS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED MODELS IN THE UPPER              
LEVELS.  ALL THREE HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST BY                 
THURSDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND                
DIGS IT DEEPER OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE MRF AND UKMO MOVE THE             
TROUGH ON EAST.  THE UKMO MOVES THE TROUGH EAST MUCH TOO FAST WHILE             
THE MRF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.  AT THE SURFACE...ALL THREE HAVE A               
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE           
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  AGAIN...THE UKMO SEEMS TO BE MOVING            
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH TOO FAST TO THE EAST.  WITH THESE                   
SCENARIOS...WILL USE THE MRF AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE BUT IT TOO WILL             
NEED SOME ADJUSTMENTS.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOST             
OF SATURDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.  WITH THE                 
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO             
MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY EVENING...ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE                  
AVAILABLE FOR SOME SHOWERS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL ON               
FRIDAY.  BUT WITH WAA JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD WARM              
UP ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.                                             
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MOHR/SALMONS                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
255 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
FORECAST QUANDARIES...TIMING/AMOUNT PCPN ON WED...TEMPS.                        
CURRENT ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS AND LAPS/SURFACE HAND ANALYSES                   
SHOWING CWA UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES WITH 15-25                    
DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS EXPERIENCED IN SOUTHERLY WIND               
FLOW. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC/UPPER AIR CHART DEPICTIONS               
ILLUSTRATING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS REGION.                      
THIS ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AS MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE               
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN PRESENTLY ACROSS THE                
CENTRAL U.S...IN PROGRESSIVE NWLY FLOW. OF PARTICULAR NOTE...A                  
SURFACE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FROM OK SEWD INTO SOUTHERN LA.                    
12Z MON REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION                   
THROUGH 00Z FRI IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. MODELS BRING SURFACE                      
WARM FRONT INTO AREA BY 18Z TUE AND THEN RETROGRADE SWLY.                       
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NV WILL                     
"MARCH" EAST WITH MAX UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER CWA BY 00Z THU...                
WITH DEVELOPING SWLY FLOW ACROSS REGION AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                  
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST BY 00Z FRI. AS POINTED OUT BY LATEST MODEL               
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...A MORE SOUTHERLY ETA POSITION LIKED DUE TO              
ITS PREVIOUS VERIFICATION RESULTS. QUESTIONING ALSO CENTER AROUND               
CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN "DETAILS" OF MODEL ANALYSES.                               
LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN PERIPHERY CLOUDINESS AS RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD            
AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE                 
PRODUCING NO POPS...BUT BELIEVE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL            
INITIATE ACROSS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE OF TS                  
DEVELOPMENT WESTERN PORTIONS EARLY MORNING HOURS WEST TO MID                    
MORNING HOURS EAST. DEVELOPING RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL LEAD TO                  
AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING                
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THU. MODEL RH TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT                 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOOK                
FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF REGION ON                    
THURSDAY DUE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.                            
EXTENDED...LOOK FOR SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW PATTERN TO MOVE                     
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AFTER 00Z FRI AND APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION            
BY 12Z FRI...PROVIDING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM                  
ACTIVITY THROUGH FRI. MRF ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH 00Z MON SEEM TO            
SUPPORT VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS.                                                
TEMPS...INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS                
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. NGM MOS NUMBERS MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF                    
SITUATION AND WILL TREND ACCORDINGLY. NGM MOS TRENDING TOO WARM                 
ON HIGHS AS OF LATE...AND QUESTION VALIDITY OF HIGHS AROUND 90                  
BNA ON WED. AVN FAN VALUES SEEM MORE IN LINE WITH REGIONAL                      
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH AN NGM/AVN COMPROMISE                  
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THU.                                                   
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                           
BNA 061/085/063/085 3301                                                        
CSV 055/082/060/083 3300                                                        
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
14                                                                              
JBW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
826 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
RELEASED EVENING ZONE UPDATE EARLY TO COVER THE WIDESPREAD                      
SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM THE ADIRONDACKS                      
THROUGH WESTERN VERMONT.                                                        
MOISTURE SEEMS TO HAVE SURGED IN AT MID LEVELS FROM THE EASTERN LAKES           
BUT IS ALREADY SLIPPING SEWRD.  THE COMPLICATION IS THAT THE RUC                
AND MESOETA SUGGEST A RATHER SGFNT LOOKING VORT TROF WILL NOT PASS IN           
THE NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS COULD KEEP              
THE SPRINKLES OCCURRING AND DELAY CLEARING UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS IN           
SOUTHERN AND ERN PTN OF THE FCST AREA.                                          
THE UPDATE FEATURES A MENTION OF SPRINKLES THROUGH MIDNIGHT                     
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  WITH MORE CLOUDS...                  
RAISED THE MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN VT.  INCREASED WINDS                   
TO 10 MPH MOST AREAS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD MORNING IN NRN                
NY.  WITH SHORT RANGE MDLS NOW SHOWING GOOD DRYING AND NVA FOR                  
WEDNESDAY...CHANGED SKY FCST TO MOSTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS.                         
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
BELL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
955 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2000                                                      
TOUGH UPDATE.  SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS FORMING ALONG SFC BOUNDARY FROM            
CNTRL IN SEWD THRU SRN OH INTO SRN HLF OF WV...WHICH APPARENTLY                 
REPRESENTS INITIAL SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BOUNDARY WILL LIKLEY               
SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL CONVECTION                      
CONTINUE?  I WOULD HAVE TO SAY YES WITH THE TREND OF CONVECTION TO              
SHIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. MESOETA/RUC SHOW THIS BOUNDARY WITH                
SOME WARM ADVECTION TO CONTINUE AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...AND WE ARE            
IN FAVORABLE REGION OF AN UPPER JET.  BOTH OF THESE SUPPORTING                  
FEATURES WILL EXIT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO FCST ON WED STILL               
LOOKS GOOD.                                                                     
.RLX...                                                                         
WV...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
.END / JMV                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
240 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2000                                                      
LATEST RUC/ETA MODEL DATA INDICATE SE MISSOURI IS ON THE NOSE OF 850            
MB 40 TO 50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION ARE RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION. AS OF 07Z...IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW              
CLOUD TOP COOLING TAKING PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF MISSOURI. LIGHTNING             
DETECTION NETWORK STARTING TO SHOW NEW STRIKES OVER SE MISSOURI.                
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION              
WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN ALL ZONES               
THROUGH THIS MORNING. ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...WILL KEEP POPS ALL DAY            
AS PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF I-70 MUCH OF               
THE DAY. ACROSS FAR WEST KENTUCKY AND SE MISSOURI...MODELS INDICATE             
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND ELEVATED                
INSTABILITY DECREASES.                                                          
ETA REALLY CRANKS UP A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE FA TONIGHT...PERHAPS A            
LITTLE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO            
THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND                   
SURFACE WARM FRONT. STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL TO THE                 
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA.                                                       
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY IN LIGHT OF THE STRONG                      
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PROGS SHOWN BY THE ETA. 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE              
IS PROGGED TO PASS OVER THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD                
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO AREAS OF PRIME FORCING.                 
EXPECT CHANCE OF STORMS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW               
AND COLD FRONT ENTER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                                
WILL MAKE FEW IF ANY CHANGES TO TEMPS...AS THEY ARE IN GOOD                     
AGREEMENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND APPEAR REASONABLE. WINDS WILL BE                
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY EACH AFTERNOON DURING TIME OF MAXIMUM                   
DIURNAL MIXING.                                                                 
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
MY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECT DYR LINE MOVEMENT PARA 3                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
230 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2000                                                      
CAP CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO                  
EASTERN NEBRASKA.  ONE WIND SHIFT...WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH             
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  MORE THAN ANYTHING THIS IS REFLECTED IN HIGHER             
DEW POINTS AND STRATUS DECK.  THIS DECK IS SHOWING VERY NICELY ON               
RADAR AS A SERIES OF GRAVITY WAVES IN THE BOUNDARY MOVING                       
NORTHEAST.  MORE DISTINCT SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER                
NORTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.  TO THE SOUTH EVEN HIGHER            
DEWPOINTS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY LOSS OF LOW CLOUDS WITHOUT FRONTAL LIFT.           
SATELLITE SHOWS RATHER DISTINCT TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN NEW             
MEXICO...BUCKLING THE JET EASTWARD.  ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT                
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL PULL THE UPPER CIRCULATION INTO THE WESTERN               
HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING.                                                       
ALL THREE MODELS HAD THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AT             
06Z...EAST OF THE ACTUAL POSITION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.  THE 06Z               
RUC ADAPTED TO THIS ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT AS IS THE              
ETA.  ALL THREE MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR SOLUTION...THE WARM FRONT                 
TRANSITIONS TO THE PLATTE RIVER OR SLIGHTLY NORTH...BUT THE DRY LINE            
SWINGS CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SURFACE LOW...INFLUENCING THE WARM               
FRONT TO HOLD SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT WITH RENEWED                  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EAST INTO SOUTHWEST              
IOWA.                                                                           
I HAVE NO STRONG PREFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS FOR NOW...EXCEPT THAT THE            
NGM HAS DROPPED ITS USUAL NORTH BIAS COMPARED TO THE OTHERS.  IN                
ADDITION...THIS REMAINS A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WHICH WOULD FAVOR            
THE AVN.  CAPPING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN SOUTHEAST                   
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND            
WARM ADVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON THIS WILL NOT LONGER BE THE CASE.              
AS A RESULT...THERE REMAINS SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY                
THIS MORNING...STRONGLY FAVORING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT A MUCH                
GREATER THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE              
CWA.                                                                            
I WOULD ALSO HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY                   
PRECIP...BUT RIGHT NOW THAT IS WHAT EVERYONE IS LOOKING FOR.                    
AFTER THIS EVENING DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL              
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION AS IT TRAVERSES INTO                    
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  TO THE NORTH THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE STABLE BUT               
WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER.                                                   
TEMPS TODAY REACHING THE 70S IN THE NORTH BUT PROBABLY MID 80S IN               
THE COUNTIES BORDERING KANSAS.  LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 50 AT NLG TO LOWER            
60S AT FNB.  COOLER THUS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.                    
PROBABLY 60 AT NLG TO 75 AT FNB.                                                
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
POWERS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR TYPO                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
840 AM PDT WED MAY 17 2000                                                      
STRATOCU DECK/RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATED IN NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY       
THIS MORNING AS NW FLOW HAS BANKED CLOUDS AGAINST MOTHERLODE. TIMING            
OF THIS ERODING WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM OF THE DAY AS CLOUDS MAY               
BECOME TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. 12Z ETA SHOWING 80 PERCENT H85       
MOISTURE LINGERING IN THIS REGION THRU 00Z. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK              
UP OVER MUCH OF THE SJ VALLEY BY MIDDAY BUT MAY REMAIN UP IN THE                
LOWER MOTHERLODE. 12Z RUC ALSO SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS            
SHEARED OUT TROF ENTERING THE PACNW...CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH             
THIS IS MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF CWA NOW. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE              
UPSTREAM CIRRUS. WILL UPDATE ZFP TO TWEAK OR REMOVE CLOUD WORDING.              
KOAK SOUNDING SHOWS MAJOR WARMING ABOVE 800-MB AS THE STUBBORN UPPER            
LOW IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE REGION. LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE LOW                
WILL BE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERNEV BUT NOT LOOKING FOR              
CONVECTIVE PRECIP. OTHERWISE PACIFIC RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OUR                  
WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE                   
INVERSION IS SEEN DOWN TO 5KFT TODAY ON BUFKIT HOURLY SOUNDINGS. WEAK W-E       
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE N-S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS                  
INVERTED TROF SETS UP ON THE COAST. H85 TEMPS UP TO 12C TODAY AND               
16C BY THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING. WEAK WAVES WILL             
CONTINUE TO SPILL SOME CIRRUS OVER THE CWA THRU FRIDAY.                         
ALL LONG RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK               
WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLIP THE SIERNEV OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD DO            
LITTLE TO OUR WARMING TREND BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A                      
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CREST. 582DM H5 HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY            
CLIMB TO 588DM BY MONDAY. GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH SYNOPTIC                 
PATTERN WILL LIKELY BUMP TEMPS UP IN THE EXTENDED INTO 90S. IF                  
PATTERN VERIFIES SOME LOCALES COULD BE APPROACHING 100F.                        
.STO...NONE.                                                                    
TARDY                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
844 AM MDT WED MAY 17 2000                                                      
LOTS GOING ON THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC/ETA WIND FORECASTS ALL                   
SHOWING WINDS INCREASING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ADVISORY                     
CRITERIA. SINCE I HAD TO UPDATE THE ZONES TO ALLOW THE FOG ADVISORY             
TO EXPIRE...I WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED THE ADVISORY AT THE SAME TIME.              
ALSO...DROPPED AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO BASED ON LATEST            
RUC FORECASTS AND WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS. ALSO...WITH SUCH HIGH                  
DEWPOINTS TO OUR EAST...IT WILL SLOW THE WARMING PROCESS A BIT.                 
LATER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.                                                    
.GLD...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT) FOR CO ZONES           
       091 AND 092, KS ZONES 002-004...013-016...027-028...AND 041-             
       042.                                                                     
THEDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
1001 AM CDT WED MAY 17 2000                                                     
ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY TAKING PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA            
AT THIS TIME.  BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT PASSED OVER VTN                    
PRODUCED A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN THE PAST HOUR.  APPEARS TO BE               
ALONG A BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...EXTENDING FROM NEAR                  
OSHKOSH IN GARDEN COUNTY TO NEAR AINSWORTH.  WILL UPDATE FOR                    
CATEGORICAL WORDING OF SHOWERS.                                                 
RUC BL RH APPEARS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB SO FAR WITH THE LOW LEVEL            
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...BUT KEEPS NORTHERN HALF OF FA IN THE SOUP              
THROUGH THE DAY. NEW ETA HAS IT LIFTING OUT BY 18Z...AND IN AREAS               
WHERE THERE ARE NO CLOUDS ABOVE THE FOG AND DRIZZLE...AND THERE ARE             
SOUTHERLY WINDS...THIS MAY HAPPEN. SOUTHERN EDGE APPEARS TO BE                  
LIFTING SOME PER VIS SAT PIX.  THINK THAT AS LONG AS NORTHERN ZONES             
CONTINUE TO HAVE NORTHEAST WIND...THAT WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE                  
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO CONDENSE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THUS                  
KEEPING THE NORTHERN AREAS CLOUDY/FOGGY/DRIZZLY MOST OF THE DAY.                
THIS WOULD ALSO PRESUMABLY DECREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER                
(TORNADOES ANYWAY) THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE BY                 
AROUND NOON TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING. WILL ASSESS NEED FOR WIND              
ADVISORY...DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS BEGIN TO MIX...AND WILL                      
LIKELY LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH AS THEIR TEMPS WILL GO           
NOWHERE TODAY.                                                                  
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED DISCUSSION...MRF NOT LOOKING QUITE AS WELL                 
ORGANIZED WITH SUNDAY SYSTEM AS PREVIOUS RUN...AND IT NOW BRINGS IN             
SOME PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHEAST FRINGE ZONES. PRECIP FIELDS             
LOOK INCONSISTENT WITH PROGS AS COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE STATE                   
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                   
.LBF...NONE                                                                     
SLM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
428 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2000                                                      
SCT SHWRS LOCATED OVR XTRM NW CWA ERLY THIS PM ALG NOSE OF JET                  
STREAK AND SMALL POCKET OF DIVERGENCE AT 250 HPA BRANCHED OFF FM                
MAIN UPR TROPSPHERIC JET ENERGY. MAIN JET ENERGY LIFTING NWRD THRU              
ERN KS ATTM ALIGNED PARALLEL AND JUST W OF CTNL KS DRY LN. RUC HAS              
HANDLED THESE FEATURES WELL AND SVR CNVTN IGNITING LAST SVR HRS AHD             
OF MAIN JET ENERGY ACR S CNTL NE. AXIS OF 2000+ J/KG CAPES XTNDS                
INTO XTRM NW MO WHICH IS PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR CWA TNGT.                  
HOWEVER MODEL DATA SUGGESTS STG HELICTY VALUES TAPERING OFF TO SE               
FM AREA WHERE CRNT TORNADIC STORMS FORMING SO MAIN SVR WX CONCERNS              
ATTM ARE HAIL AND STG WNDS FM PSBL LINEAR SQUALL LN DVLPMNT. DRY LN             
WILL TRY TO LIMP THRU WRN CWA LTR TNGT AND WITH MODEL TIME SECTS                
INDICATING DIFFERENTIAL ADVT THRU 0600 UTC THINK LAPSE RATES SHLD               
STEEPEN UP ENOUGH FOR PSBL SVR LN OF CNVTN. METIONED PSBL SVR IN ALL            
WRN ZNS. FTHR E SVR THREAT IS A BIT MORE AMBIGUOUS SO JUST KEPT CHC             
POPS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS.                                                           
MODELS SUGGEST RMNS OF DRY LN BNDRY TO LINGER OVR FCST AREA ON THUR             
AND WITH UPR LO AXIS STILL TO W CNVTV THREAT TO RMN IN TACT. HOWEVER            
MODELS GRIDS HINT AT SOME MID/UPR TROPOSPHERIC WRMING AS CLOSED                 
CIRCULAITON TRYS TO FILL SO LAPSE RATE MAY NOT BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR              
SVR CNVTN. MID CREW WILL HAVE TO RE-EVAUALTE.                                   
STAYED CLOSE TO INHERITED FCST REMAINDER OF FCST PRD INCLUDING XTND.            
IN XTND PRDS CONCERNED ABT PSBL HVY RN ACR NE CWA DEPENDING ON WHERE            
STG BAROLINIC ZN ESTABLISHES ITSELF.                                            
..EAX...                                                                        
BODNER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
250 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2000                                                      
FORECAST QUANDARIES...STRENGTH OF TS ACTIVITY ON FRI...TEMPS.                   
CURRENT ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...REGIONAL SATELLITE AND MOSIAC                  
RADAR IMAGERY...AND LAPS/SURFACE HAND ANALYSES SHOWING SHOWER                   
ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AFFECT                
AREA WEATHER PATTERN. CWA/S SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS THIS           
AFTERNOON STILL AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES UNDER CONTINUING SOUTHERLY            
FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE "TAP".  A WIDE SWATH OF DEWPOINTS RANGING IN             
THE 60S NOTED FROM EASTERN TX TO CENTRAL IOWA. LATEST RUC/12Z UPPER             
AIR CHART DEPICTIONS SHOWING WINDS VEERING TO THE NW WITH HEIGHT AS             
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE...UPPER LEVEL LOW/DIGGING             
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CO PLAINS.                                              
12Z WED REGIONAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION                   
THROUGH 00Z SAT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH ETA THE BEST INITIALIZED               
WITH SURFACE LOW POSITIONED IN EASTERN CO. ETA SEEMS TO HAVE                    
HANDLED WEATHER SCENARIOS WELL OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS AND WILL                  
LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR THIS UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.                     
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APEX MOVES INTO THE AREA AND EASTWARD                      
INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION BY 00Z FRI...LOW PRESSURE                      
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FORM EASTERN CO TO THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER                    
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CWA UNDER CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND                  
ATTACHMENT TO GULF MOISTURE "TAP". A DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL                    
MOISTURE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AFFECTS EXPECTED...BUT BELIEVE                
ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT                  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH 00Z FRI.                                            
LOOK FOR SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IL BY 12Z FRI WITH                    
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                       
REGION. WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST AND MIDDLE WITH WIDELY                       
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE LOW AND UPPER                      
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA ON FRI...WITH MODEL                          
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME                  
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO WITH A SCATTERED POPS RANGE WEST                  
TO EAST ON FRIDAY...AND MORE IN LINE WITH AVN FAN VALUES.                       
EXTENDED...WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS REGION THROUGH 00Z TUE              
...LOOK FOR SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE PROVIDING A CHANCE             
OF SHOWER/AND OR TS ACTIVITY...WITH MRF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS             
NE GA BY 00Z TUE.                                                               
TEMPS...NGM MOS TRENDING WELL ON LOWS AS OF LATE AND WILL TREND                 
ACCORDINGLY. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...TEMPERATURES IN                  
THE UPPER 80S REACHING TO AROUND 90 SOUTHERN PORTIONS POSSIBLE.                 
WILL TREND TOWARD NGM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS ON THU. NGM MOS/AVN                  
FAN VALUES IN LINE FOR FRI HIGHS.                                               
THANKS FOR COORDINATION MEM                                                     
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                           
BNA 064/087/066/082 1124                                                        
CSV 060/083/061/079 1113                                                        
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
14                                                                              
JBW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tn