AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
230 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY).                                                         
...POTENTIAL WINTRY WEATHER TO START SATURDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS             
ON TRACK...                                                                     
CURRENTLY: SERN CO PLANS STRATUS BURNED OFF AROUND NOON...HOWEVER...            
TEMPS IN THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM DUE TO THE LACK OF WIND             
AND LOW SUN ANGLE.  THE WIND ISN'T TOO FAR AWAY WITH OBSERVATION                
DATA SHOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY AT AND ABOVE 8K FT               
MSL WITH STILL RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS(IE SINGLE DIGITS AND                   
TEENS).  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED THE              
NEXT SYSTEM STARTING TO MOVE INTO CA.  THE ULJ IS CONTINUING TO DIG             
HARD TO THE S AND STARTING TO HEAD INTO THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH.                  
OTHERWISE...WLY FLOW WAS COVERING ALL OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...              
SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EWD MOVEMENT.                                 
TGNT: MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE THE WIND AND MIN TEMPERATURES.              
IT APPEARS THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT IN ERN CO SHOULD MIGRATE BACK WWD             
TOWARDS THE ERN CO MTNS TONIGHT.  WINDS SHOULD BE BLOWING OVER THE              
HIGH HIGHER TERRAIN.  BIG QUESTION IS HOW SIGNIFICANT WILL THE GUSTS            
GET TONIGHT?  MM5 MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING THE GREATEST...IF AT              
ALL...ANY MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER.  THE WINDS WILL BE A BLOWING               
THOUGH WITH 55-75KTS AT H5 FROM THE SW.  AREAS THAT ARE MORE                    
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE "HIGH" WINDS WOULD BE ALONG THE LEE OF THE                 
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE WET MOUNTAINS.  BOX                
CANYON AREAS ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTN ERN SLOPES COULD SEE                
PERIODIC WIND CHANNELING WITH LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS.  WILL HOLD           
OFF ISSUING ANY WIND HEADLINES.  OTHERWISE...W-SWLY FLOW STILL                  
RELATIVELY DRY AND DOESN'T APPEAR TO MOISTEN UP AT ALL AROUND OUR               
PORTION OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  I PULLED THE EVENING POPS                   
THERE...BUT KEPT THE LOW POPS FOR OVERNIGHT...BUT THEY MAY BE LIKELY            
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.                                       
SAT: STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY HERE...HOWEVER...NICE             
TO SEE THE ETA FINALLY COME IN-LINE WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION.  SAT              
AM SHOULD SEE THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT UP AGAINST THE SERN CO                     
MTNS/PLAINS.  TEMPS IN SERN CO MAY NOT BUDGE MUCH SAT.  SRN WILL                
STILL HAVE THE RELATIVELY "DRY" MID LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD MUCH OF SAT             
AM. AGAIN...CURRENT MORNING POPS MAY BE OVERDONE.  HOWEVER...AS THE             
SYSTEM(OPEN WAVE) MOVES OVERHEAD SAT AFTN...THE MOISTURE                        
SHOULD DEEPEN AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO BREAKOUT OVER THE               
MTNS AND SPREAD TO ADJACENT PLAINS/VALLEYS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE           
PRETTY STEEP WITH VALUES OF 6-8.5C/KM.  THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP                 
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AND COLD CORE CLOUD LAYER TEMPS SHOULD PROMOTE            
THE POTENTIAL FOR MOD/LARGE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IN THE SNOW                   
SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW LINE BATTLE....                   
HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE AND DIABATIC COOLING IN THE SHOWERS SHOULD HELP           
LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT...            
THIS COULD BECOME A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER EVENT WITH TREMENDOUS           
SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.  BY LATE SAT AFTN...           
MUCH OF THE MTNS/HIGH VALLEYS/I-25 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE ENGULFED WITH             
PRECIPITATION.  RIGHT NOW...THE BEST QPF/SNOWAMT "BULLSEYE" WOULD BE            
IN THE SERN CO MTNS/PALMER DIVIDE.  THERE POTENTIALLY COULD BE AROUND           
3 INCHES FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND 3-7 INCHES IN THE SERN CO                    
MTNS/PIKES PEAK BY LATE SAT AFTN.  THERE IS SOME BRIEF OROGRAPHIC               
INFLOW TO THE ERN SAN JUAN AND COLLEGIATE MTN RANGE EARLY SAT AFTN...           
BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WE LOSE THE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE IN             
MOST LOCATIONS SAT AFTN. NOW...THE SYSTEM'S SYNOPTIC SCALE                      
ASCENT/INSTABILITY ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW                       
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT HOW MUCH IS STILL THE QUESTION.  THERE COULD BE             
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.  WE             
HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HUERFANO...TELLER...             
NRN EL PASO...FREMONT...AND THE SERN CO MTNS STARTING SAT AFTN.  SEE            
LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR THE CONTINUED EVENT.  --METZE                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY).                                           
AS TOUCHED UPON IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (PLEASE SEE ABOVE)...MAIN              
WEATHER CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE EFFECT THAT INCOMING UPPER             
SYSTEM HAS ON CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT.  WINTER STORM WATCH THAT BEGINS              
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY                 
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MOST INCLEMENT WEATHER ACTION            
FROM AROUND SUNSET TO MIDNIGHT.                                                 
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT QG ASCENT WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE                
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND SUNSET TO MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH           
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. ON THE DOWN             
SIDE...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NOT VERY FAVORABLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND                 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE             
TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 10 INCH CATEGORY FOR              
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA DUE TO THE REASONS                
MENTIONED ABOVE AND FAVORABLE COLD TEMPERATURES ALLOWING FLUFFY                 
SNOWFLAKES AS ALLUDED TO IN WFO PUEBLO'S 430 AM DISCUSSION.                     
AS SUNDAY PROGRESS...PUEBLO IN WAKE OF SYSTEM WITH MAIN STORY OF                
THE DAY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...I.E. WILL HAVE HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY            
REACHING INTO THE 20S OVER THE PLAINS.                                          
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...WITH LOW                   
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE EASTERN           
PLAINS ALONG WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS           
VALLEY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON                 
THE REBOUND MONDAY. POPS NIL ON MONDAY.                                         
ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS CWFA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND                
HAVE PAINTED GRIDS/ZONES WITH MAINLY LOW GRADE MOUNTAIN POPS THIS               
PERIOD ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN BELOW                          
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.                                                        
FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN                   
WEATHER SYSTEMS...ALLOWING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A                
SLOW WARMING TREND.                                                             
FINALLY...BY NEXT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND              
CLIMATOLOGY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKES ITS WAY INTO             
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE DAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH...ZONES 72>84             
AND 87(PALMER DIVIDE...TELLER COUNTY...FREMONT COUNTY...SANGRE DE               
CRISTO/WET MTNS...HUERFANO COUNTY)...12PM MST SAT TO 6AM MST SUN.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
845 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
A BROAD 1020 MB SFC HIGH PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SE GA WITH WEAK                  
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING OVER NE FL COAST. 00Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWS LIGHT          
WINDS ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 400 MB WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR              
925 MB...BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS NOT IMPRESSIVE.               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL SHOWS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER              
GOMEX AND INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...MOVING EWD.                                
MOST INLAND AREAS ARE CALM NOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE                      
50S...WITH LOWER 60S AT THE COAST. AT 00Z HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WERE                
MAINLY CONFINED S OF BRUNSWICK AND EAST OF U.S. 301. GIVEN THESE                
CONDS AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PATCHY DENSE FOG LOOKS REASONABLE                
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 OVER NE FL...BUT            
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHALLOW IN DEPTH. (INTERESTING TO NOTE 12Z/18Z ETA             
METEOGRAMS DID NOT SHOW ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS.) LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD              
BUT UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD SEE TEMPS A LITTLE                   
COOLER...SO MAY MAKE AN UPDATE. ALREADY SEEING TEMPS NEARING LOWS               
OVER INTERIOR NE FL.                                                            
A FINE DAY FOR SAT WITH HIGH PRES CENTER CONTINUING TO MOVE E WITH              
SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND LIGHT E TO SE WINDS...WITH TEMPS ARND                  
75-80....BUT LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE NEAR            
70.                                                                             
MARINE...WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT PER OBSERVATIONS AND SEAS ESTIMATED              
ABOUT 2-3 FT...MAINLY FROM AN ENE SWELL AT ABOUT 8-10 SEC.                      
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE.                                   
ARS                                                                             
--------------------------                                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
--------------------------                                                      
CURRENTLY...PLEASANT WX ACROSS THE CWA (COUNTY WARNING AREA) WITH               
ATLC SC FIELD STAYING S OF THE AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH                
DP'S IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER INLAND AREAS...MID 50'S NEAR THE              
COAST.                                                                          
PUBLIC...LITTLE CHANGE TO NEAR TERM FCST...AS MAIN CONCERN IS FOG               
FORMATION THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS. WRF MODEL...ALONG WITH VARIOUS MOS                 
SUITES...INDICATED POSSIBLE DENSE FOG TONIGHT. THIS FOG WILL MAINLY             
BE CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS...AS A BIT OF ONSHORE COMPONENT HAS                
ADVECTED IN SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...WRF APPEARS TO               
HAVE PICKED UP ON SFC MOISTURE IN THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP AND PAINTED              
FOG THERE AS WELL. HAVE INDICATED MORE PATCHY FOG FARTHER INLAND...             
ALTHO DON'T EXPECT MUCH AWAY FROM MOISTURE SOURCE. DUE TO THE                   
SHALLOWNESS OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...MUCH OF THIS FOG MAY BE IN              
THE FORM OF THICK GROUND FOG.                                                   
SUN MORNING...FOG FCST IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MOS INDICATES                   
SIMILAR NUMBERS TO SAT MORNING. HOWEVER...MESO-ETA FOUS SHOWS A BIT             
MORE LOW CLOUDINESS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE                
WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT IT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DENSE. DUE TO THE                   
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LEFT PREVIOUS FCST ALONE.                                    
EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATING FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON. DUE TO THE               
NARROWNESS OF THE FCST CONVECTION...BOTH FROM THE ETA AND GFS                   
SUITES...HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE N            
ZONES MON. GFS DEVELOPS SFC LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MOVES IT               
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI. MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO                
WORK WITH...BUT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTS LOW CHANCE AT BEST ATTM.                   
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS.                                          
MARINE...COASTAL FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY IF DRAINAGE WIND            
ADVECTS RADIATION FOG TO THE E. NO HEADLINES.                                   
FIRE WEATHER...LOW DISPERSION THRU THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES.                   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
AMG 45 76 48 76 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
SSI 56 72 54 74 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
JAX 51 75 55 78 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
SGJ 60 73 60 76 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
GNV 50 78 51 80 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
OCF 50 79 53 81 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CARROLL/WELSH                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...RUC SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE              
LATEST MSAS PLACING A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTER FROM NC/TN SOUTHWEST            
TO THE COAST COAST NEAR KMOB. THIS RESULTS IN GENERALLY A NORTHEAST             
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS ATTM                
RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60...NORTH TO SOUTH...AND ARE ON TRACK.            
WILL LEAVE PUBLIC ZONES AS IS AND ISSUE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST BY              
1020 AM WITH OUT CHANGE.                                                        
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
RKR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
752 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY...MAINLY FOR CLOUD COVER AND             
WINDS. MODELS HAVING THERE PROBLEMS THIS EVENING WITH EVOLVING                  
SURFACE PATTERN TO OUR WEST. WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS A              
RESULT OF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO GETTING STRONGER AHEAD OF                 
SCHEDULE. MODELS DID NOT CATCH LOW OVER EASTERN WYOMING EARLIER...BUT           
THAT LOW SEEMS TO BE GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE SURFACE LOWS OVER                
COLORADO AT THIS TIME. 21Z RUC HAD NOT PICKED UP ON NORTHERLY                   
COMPONENT OF WINDS. BUT THE 00Z RUC HAS...AND WILL UPDATE WINDS                 
WITH IT.                                                                        
ALREADY GETTING CLOUD COVER AT MULTIPLE LEVELS...AND WILL JUST GO               
MOSTLY CLOUD EVERYPLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER THAN GRIDS...AND WILL              
UPDATE WITH THE CURRENT RUC DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE DOING MUCH BETTER.              
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. SOME ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY BUT                 
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WILL NOT TOUCH. HOWEVER...WILL UPDATE             
THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1015 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS -SN POTENTIAL.                                        
WV IMAGERY SHOWS TROF DEEPENING OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH WSWRLY FLOW             
DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVE EDGING OUT INTO               
THE DAKOTAS AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF                 
UPWARD MOTION FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/NRN WI. RADARS ARE LIGHTING              
UP FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO UPPER MI...BUT WEDGE OF SIGNIFICANT                    
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR PER 00Z KGRB/KMPX SOUNDINGS (DWPT DEPRESSIONS                 
UPWARD OF 20C BELOW 800MB) KEEPING SUBSTANTIAL PART OF LEADING EDGE             
AS VIRGA DESPITE REFLECTIVITIES UP TO 30DBZ AS LOW AS 5KFT ON                   
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY. HAS BEEN SNOWING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP ONCE             
SNOW DOES REACH THE GROUND AS NOTED BY OBS IN WRN MN/NE SD. IN                  
ADDITION TO BROAD FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK...STRONG                    
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS OCCURRING PER RUC/ETA...AND THIS SEEMS TO             
LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH WHERE SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND UPSTREAM.            
SO THE DIFFICULT QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS WHETHER LOW-LEVEL DRY            
AIR IN PLACE OVER FCST AREA CAN BE ERODED BY PERSISTENT UPWARD                  
VERTICAL MOTION.                                                                
LATEST RUC FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DEPTH/MAGNITUDE OF            
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIRMASS OBSERVED ON NEARBY 00Z SOUNDINGS THAN 18Z ETA             
DOES. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD RUC DEPICTION OF MOISTENING TO OCCUR                
OVERNIGHT. WITH SFC DWPTS RUNNING IN THE TEENS F TO THE N OF FCST               
AREA...CIRCULATION INDUCED BY FRONTOGENESIS (NRLY LOW-LEVEL WIND)               
WILL WORK TO MAINTAIN DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC. HAVE THUS TRIMMED BACK              
START OF -SN/FLURRIES DURING THE NIGHT. OVER THE ERN FCST AREA...DRY            
AIR IS A LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND COMBINED WITH SOME WEAKENING OF            
FORCING...DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES LATE                
TONIGHT AS BEST LIFT IS WASTED ON MOISTENING DRY LAYER. OTHERWISE...            
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION OF HIGHEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES UPSTREAM                   
SUGGESTS BAND OF SNOW THAT REACHES GROUND SHOULD EVENTUALLY HEAD                
ALONG AN AXIS ROUGHLY THROUGH IRON RIVER TOWARD MARQUETTE.                      
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL (LESS THAN AN INCH) DUE TO DRY AIR              
THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME.                                                      
A WORD ON THE LATER PERIODS...18Z ETA/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST                 
RAIN/SNOW LINE SUN/SUN NIGHT MAY PUSH FARTHER W THRU FCST AREA THAN             
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BEING 48HRS OUT...MODEL RUNS WILL NO DOUBT SHOW             
MORE FLUCTUATIONS ON THERMAL STRUCTURE AND LOW TRACK. STAY TUNED.               
ROLFSON                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
DISCUSSION FOR SAT THRU FRI ISSUED AT 345 PM EST.                               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND PROGRESSION OF BIG WRN             
TROF AND IMPACT OF SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THIS TROF ON MSLP FIELD/SN             
AMTS/PCPN TYPE OVER CWA. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTER TERM              
FCST AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEN A DIVERGENCE OF OPINION ON TRACK OF            
RESULTING SFC LO. GFS/OLD ECMWF TENDS TO DVLP SFC LO MORE AND TAKE              
SYS FARTHER W THAN ETA/CNDN SOLNS. ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN            
THERMAL TROF WELL TO THE W OF CWA AND TENDENCY FOR WARMING RELATED              
TO THE GRT LKS TO DEFLECT LOWS FARTHER W EARLY IN THE SEASON WOULD              
FAVOR THE FARTHER W SOLN...HAVE COMPROMISED A BIT TOWARD THE WEAKER             
ETA GIVEN NCEP MODEL PREFERENCES. THIS SOLN MIGHT BE RSNBL IF ENUF              
LLVL AGEOSTROPHIC CAD ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTGENESIS CIRCULATION                  
MAINTAINS MAIN LLVL BAROCLINIC ZN FARTHER SE. BUT OVERALL...TENDED              
MORE TOWARD GFS GUIDANCE.                                                       
ALTHOUGH UPR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF DEPARTING JET MAX LIFTS TO             
THE NE BY DAYBREAK ON SAT...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ABV                      
SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZN ACRS THE CWA SHUD MAINTAIN OCNL -SN/                   
FLURRIES IN THE MRNG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF CWA WHERE                
UPSLOPE NE FLOW WL PREVAIL. SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL PICK UP DURG THE                
AFTN...WHEN GFS SHOWS INCRSG UPR DVGC/H7 UVV WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV               
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH CRITICAL H100-85 THKNS ARND              
1300M PROGGED TO BE NEAR SE ZNS...SUSPECT AGEOSTROPHIC NNE FLOW                 
ASSOCIATED WITH FCST FRONTOGENESIS AND LLVL DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN A               
COLD ENUF PROFILE FOR ALL SN EVEN NR LK MI. IMXR METHOD SUGS UP TO              
3" SN/6 HRS...BUT WL ADJUST THIS FIGURE DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR                     
LINGERING DRY AIR AND LIMITED WINDOW OF SGNFT PCPN CONFINED TO THE              
AFTN...WITH HIEST AMTS OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. BOTH GFS/ETA SHOW DEEPER             
SATURATION OVER ONLY THE WRN ZNS WITH BETTER UPR DVGC...SO LESS SN              
ACRS THE E. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LWR ETA FCST TMAX.                              
BETTER UPR DVGC/H7 UVV PROGGED TO IMPACT CWA...MAINLY THE W HALF...             
MOST OF SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PASSAGE OF                 
INITIAL SHRTWV TO THE NE. DURG ALL THIS TIME...MAIN SFC LO REMAINS              
WELL S OF CWA. HOWEVER... PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE NE               
FLOW WL ENHANCE SN FALL OVER ESPECIALLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE WRN             
ZNS. IMXR METHOD CONTS TO POINT TOWARD 3"/6 HRS...BUT WL ADJUST THIS            
AMT UPWARD IN FVRD UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF (ESPECIALLY                
SINCE ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW A 4-5K FT DEPTH OF NRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NE             
FLOW AT MQT). ALTHOUGH ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW UVV MAX BLO BETTER RANGE             
OF SN GROWTH TEMPS...THERE IS STILL SGNFT UVV FCST WITHIN THE FVRBL             
RANGE. BOTH GFS/ETA CONT TO SHOW WEAKER UPR DVGC/UVV AS WELL AS LESS            
MOISTENING ACRS THE SE...SO SN AMTS ADJUSTED DOWN THERE. AN                     
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WL BE PCPN TYPE OVER THE LK MI ZNS...WHERE GFS               
SHOWS H100-85 THKNS RISING TOWARD 1320M LATE AND ETA FCST SDNGS                 
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SLEET WITH LYR OF ABV FRZG AIR ALF NR H85.             
CONSIDERING THE CONTD AGEOSTROPHIC NNE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH                     
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION AND LO DWPT AIR ALREADY ADVECTING INTO                
CWA...THINK FCST OF H100-85 THKNS RISING SO QUICKLY IS OFF THE MARK.            
WL HOWEVER INCLUDE MENTION OF SLEET/RA IN THESE AREAS.                          
LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE PCPN SUN MRNG BEFORE MAIN UPR WAVE/SFC LO             
TRACK NE. WITH PREFERENCE HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS PER THE NEW UKMET AS            
WELL GIVEN INPUT FM SURROUNDING OFFICES...MIXED PCPN OVER THE E WL              
CHG TO MAINLY RA WITH INCRSG H100-85 THKNS. SINCE LLVL NE FLOW WL               
TEND TO MAINTAIN CAD...WL HAVE TO MAINTAIN A MIX OF -FZRA/IP AS WELL            
AT LEAST ACRS THE ECNTRL. BLSN WL BCM A PROBLEM ACRS THE WRN ZNS...             
WHICH WL REMAIN ON THE FVRBL CYC SIDE OF H7 LO TRACK AND HAVE BETTER            
CHC TO MISS PSBL DRY SLOTTING AS WELL AS STAYING ALL SN. SO SIZEABLE            
ACCUM PSBL IN THIS AREA. PCPN WL TEND TO CHG BACK TO ALL SN WITH                
DEFORMATION ZN SHIFTING E...BUT SE ZNS SHUD DOWNSLOPE WITH NW FLOW              
TO HOLD DOWN ACCUMS THAT AREA. RUNNING OUT OF TIME...SO NO TIME TO              
DISCUSS FURTHER. WL PRETTY MUCH MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES WITH SLGT              
CHGS TO TIMING.                                                                 
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW UPR PATTERN TRANSITIONING RPDLY TO A MORE ZONAL            
ONE MID WEEK WITH A SHALLOW WRN TROF/ERN RDG LOOK AFTER DEPARTURE OF            
BIG WEEKEND STORM SYS ON MON...WITH MODEL TREND TOWARD A FASTER                 
DEPARTURE OF COLD AIR TUE WITH ONSET OF OVRRNG. ALTHOUGH NO BIG                 
STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AFTER MON...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE            
MODELS ON A NUMBER OF WEAKER WAD EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS                 
LIFTING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CAN. TIMING THESE INDIVIDUAL                 
EVENTS AT THIS POINT WOULD BE FRUITLESS...SO WL GO WITH CHC POPS TUE            
NGT-FRI. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SOLN THU-FRI SO THAT                
PCPN COULD BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH RA...GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT                 
TOWARD LOWER THKNS WITH ALL SN. SO TEMPS LOWER THAN GFS GUIDANCE FOR            
THAT TIME.                                                                      
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH LATE SAT AFTN AND NIGHT MIZ004-005.                          
WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY MIZ001>006-009>011-084.              
&&                                                                              
KC                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
345 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WRN TROF/ERN RDG FLOW            
ALF ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS TO THE N OF WSW-ENE UPR RDG                  
ORIENTED FM MEXICO THRU THE SE CONUS. SHRTWV LIFTING ENEWD THRU                 
ONTARIO THIS MRNG WITH ACCOMPANYING 140KT H3 JET MAX OVER THE CWA AT            
12Z. AIRMASS STREAMING INTO THE UPR GRT LKS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV               
AND BEHIND H85 COLD FNT NOW THE SE OF FA IS QUITE DRY WITH PWAT BLO             
0.20 INCH. 12Z INL SDNG SHOWS INVRN HGT JUST ABV H85...BUT LLVLS                
QUITE DRY WITH ACYC FLOW ARND SFC RDG BEHIND THE FNT. SO NOTHING                
MORE THAN LK SC OVER THE WRN ZONES DESPITE H85 TEMP OF -14C AT INL              
(DELTA T ARPCHG 17C OVER WRN LK SUP). BUT HI CLDS STREAMING INTO THE            
PLAINS AND EVEN SOME LGT SN OVER WRN SD IN ADVANCE OF COMPLEX WRN               
TROF...AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS ROTATING WITHIN THIS TROF. MOST            
POTENT OF THESE IS COMING ASHORE IN NRN CA THIS MRNG AND CAUSING                
12HR H3/H5 HGT FALLS AS GREAT AS 150M/120M FM BOISE TO ELKO IN THE              
INTERMOUNTAIN W. H3/H5 WND SPEEDS AS HI AS 140KT/100KT IN THE                   
ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK...AND H5 TEMPS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA ADVECTING            
INTO THE UPR TROF NEAR -40C. IN CONTRAST...H85 TEMPS OVER THE SRN               
PLAINS AT 12Z AS HI AS 20C...VS -20C OVER ALBERTA. AIRMASS OVER THE             
SRN PLAINS HOWEVER IS QUITE DRY (PWAT NOT MUCH ABOVE 0.50 INCH EVEN             
NR GLFMEX SHORE)...WITH GLFMEX CLOSED AT LEAST FOR NOW.                         
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND PROGRESSION OF BIG WRN             
TROF AND IMPACT OF SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THIS TROF ON MSLP FIELD/SN             
AMTS/PCPN TYPE OVER CWA. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTER TERM              
FCST AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEN A DIVERGENCE OF OPINION ON TRACK OF            
RESULTING SFC LO. GFS/OLD ECMWF TENDS TO DVLP SFC LO MORE AND TAKE              
SYS FARTHER W THAN ETA/CNDN SOLNS. ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN            
THERMAL TROF WELL TO THE W OF CWA AND TENDENCY FOR WARMING RELATED              
TO THE GRT LKS TO DEFLECT LOWS FARTHER W EARLY IN THE SEASON WOULD              
FAVOR THE FARTHER W SOLN...HAVE COMPROMISED A BIT TOWARD THE WEAKER             
ETA GIVEN NCEP MODEL PREFERENCES. THIS SOLN MIGHT BE RSNBL IF ENUF              
LLVL AGEOSTROPHIC CAD ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTGENESIS CIRCULATION                  
MAINTAINS MAIN LLVL BAROCLINIC ZN FARTHER SE. BUT OVERALL...TENDED              
MORE TOWARD GFS GUIDANCE.                                                       
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS FOR TNGT IS POTENTIAL FOR AREA OF -SN IN SD             
TO STREAK NE INTO FA...AS FCST BY BOTH ETA/GFS. WHILE DRY ANTECEDENT            
AIRMASS CERTAINLY A NEGATIVE...ETA/GFS SHOW INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT              
ON 290K SFC (ARND H725) WITH BAND OF H4-2 DVGC IN RRQ OF DEPARTING              
140KT H3 JET MAX (THE POSITION OF WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH CURRENT            
LOCATION OF AREA OF -SN IN SD) PASSING OVHD OVRNGT AS WELL. ETA                 
BUFKIT SDNGS INDICATE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UVV MAX APRCHG 10UB/SEC                 
CENTERED ANRD ALTITUDE OF -12C TO -15C TEMPS FVRG MAX SN GROWTH.                
BETTER UPR DVGC APPEARS TO TRACK OVER WRN ZNS...WHILE BETTER                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPACTS THE E...SO WL GO WITH OCNL -SN/FLURRIES                 
DVLPG OVERNGT WITH LESSER PCPN ACRS THE E PER DRIER FCST MODEL SDNGS            
THERE. GFS/ETA QPF LESS THAN 0.10 INCH...WHICH SEEMS RSNBL                      
CONSIDERING DRY AIR UNDER FVRBL FORCING ALF. FCST H100-85 THKNS AND             
OBSVD MINS UPSTREAM FAVOR SOMEWHAT HIER GFS/ETA MOS FCST FOR MINS.              
ALTHOUGH UPR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF DEPARTING JET MAX LIFTS TO             
THE NE BY DAYBREAK ON SAT...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ABV                      
SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZN ACRS THE CWA SHUD MAINTAIN OCNL -SN/                   
FLURRIES IN THE MRNG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF CWA WHERE                
UPSLOPE NE FLOW WL PREVAIL. SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL PICK UP DURG THE                
AFTN...WHEN GFS SHOWS INCRSG UPR DVGC/H7 UVV WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV               
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF WRN TROF. ALTHOUGH CRITICAL H100-85 THKNS ARND              
1300M PROGGED TO BE NEAR SE ZNS...SUSPECT AGEOSTROPHIC NNE FLOW                 
ASSOCIATED WITH FCST FRONTOGENESIS AND LLVL DRY AIR WL MAINTAIN A               
COLD ENUF PROFILE FOR ALL SN EVEN NR LK MI. IMXR METHOD SUGS UP TO              
3" SN/6 HRS...BUT WL ADJUST THIS FIGURE DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR                     
LINGERING DRY AIR AND LIMITED WINDOW OF SGNFT PCPN CONFINED TO THE              
AFTN...WITH HIEST AMTS OVER UPSLOPE AREAS. BOTH GFS/ETA SHOW DEEPER             
SATURATION OVER ONLY THE WRN ZNS WITH BETTER UPR DVGC...SO LESS SN              
ACRS THE E. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LWR ETA FCST TMAX.                              
BETTER UPR DVGC/H7 UVV PROGGED TO IMPACT CWA...MAINLY THE W HALF...             
MOST OF SAT NGT BEFORE DIMINISHING BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PASSAGE OF                 
INITIAL SHRTWV TO THE NE. DURG ALL THIS TIME...MAIN SFC LO REMAINS              
WELL S OF CWA. HOWEVER... PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE NE               
FLOW WL ENHANCE SN FALL OVER ESPECIALLY THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE WRN             
ZNS. IMXR METHOD CONTS TO POINT TOWARD 3"/6 HRS...BUT WL ADJUST THIS            
AMT UPWARD IN FVRD UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE W HALF (ESPECIALLY                
SINCE ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW A 4-5K FT DEPTH OF NRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NE             
FLOW AT MQT). ALTHOUGH ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW UVV MAX BLO BETTER RANGE             
OF SN GROWTH TEMPS...THERE IS STILL SGNFT UVV FCST WITHIN THE FVRBL             
RANGE. BOTH GFS/ETA CONT TO SHOW WEAKER UPR DVGC/UVV AS WELL AS LESS            
MOISTENING ACRS THE SE...SO SN AMTS ADJUSTED DOWN THERE. AN                     
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WL BE PCPN TYPE OVER THE LK MI ZNS...WHERE GFS               
SHOWS H100-85 THKNS RISING TOWARD 1320M LATE AND ETA FCST SDNGS                 
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SLEET WITH LYR OF ABV FRZG AIR ALF NR H85.             
CONSIDERING THE CONTD AGEOSTROPHIC NNE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH                     
FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION AND LO DWPT AIR ALREADY ADVECTING INTO                
CWA...THINK FCST OF H100-85 THKNS RISING SO QUICKLY IS OFF THE MARK.            
WL HOWEVER INCLUDE MENTION OF SLEET/RA IN THESE AREAS.                          
LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN THE PCPN SUN MRNG BEFORE MAIN UPR WAVE/SFC LO             
TRACK NE. WITH PREFERENCE HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS PER THE NEW UKMET AS            
WELL GIVEN INPUT FM SURROUNDING OFFICES...MIXED PCPN OVER THE E WL              
CHG TO MAINLY RA WITH INCRSG H100-85 THKNS. SINCE LLVL NE FLOW WL               
TEND TO MAINTAIN CAD...WL HAVE TO MAINTAIN A MIX OF -FZRA/IP AS WELL            
AT LEAST ACRS THE ECNTRL. BLSN WL BCM A PROBLEM ACRS THE WRN ZNS...             
WHICH WL REMAIN ON THE FVRBL CYC SIDE OF H7 LO TRACK AND HAVE BETTER            
CHC TO MISS PSBL DRY SLOTTING AS WELL AS STAYING ALL SN. SO SIZEABLE            
ACCUM PSBL IN THIS AREA. PCPN WL TEND TO CHG BACK TO ALL SN WITH                
DEFORMATION ZN SHIFTING E...BUT SE ZNS SHUD DOWNSLOPE WITH NW FLOW              
TO HOLD DOWN ACCUMS THAT AREA. RUNNING OUT OF TIME...SO NO TIME TO              
DISCUSS FURTHER. WL PRETTY MUCH MAINTAIN GOING HEADLINES WITH SLGT              
CHGS TO TIMING.                                                                 
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW UPR PATTERN TRANSITIONING RPDLY TO A MORE ZONAL            
ONE MID WEEK WITH A SHALLOW WRN TROF/ERN RDG LOOK AFTER DEPARTURE OF            
BIG WEEKEND STORM SYS ON MON...WITH MODEL TREND TOWARD A FASTER                 
DEPARTURE OF COLD AIR TUE WITH ONSET OF OVRRNG. ALTHOUGH NO BIG                 
STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AFTER MON...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE            
MODELS ON A NUMBER OF WEAKER WAD EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS                 
LIFTING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CAN. TIMING THESE INDIVIDUAL                 
EVENTS AT THIS POINT WOULD BE FRUITLESS...SO WL GO WITH CHC POPS TUE            
NGT-FRI. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS SHOWS A WARMER SOLN THU-FRI SO THAT                
PCPN COULD BE AT LEAST MIXED WITH RA...GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT                 
TOWARD LOWER THKNS WITH ALL SN. SO TEMPS LOWER THAN GFS GUIDANCE FOR            
THAT TIME.                                                                      
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH LATE SAT AFTN AND NIGHT MIZ004-005.                          
WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY MIZ001>006-009>011-084.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1040 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDS FROM LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE              
TOLEDO AREA AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 12Z ETA AND                
CURRENT RUC INDICATE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY            
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LEAVING A LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT              
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. BASED ON THE 12Z RAOBS...ETA HAD A               
GOOD HANDLE ON 925MB TEMPS. THE ETA SOLUTION ONLY DROPS 925MB TEMPS             
DOWN TO AROUND 9 DEG C BY 21Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AFTERNOON MIXING            
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 DOWN AROUND            
THE OHIO BORDER...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING UPPER 40S ACROSS THE             
SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB REGION WHERE 925MB TEMPS WILL ONLY BE AROUND               
+2C. WITH CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH                
ALREADY IN THE LOWER 50S...WILL INCREASE FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE              
SOUTH. THE CIRRUS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE THIN...WITH MOST              
LOCALS ACTUALLY SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS                
UPSTREAM SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL                  
ADJUST CLOUD COVER IN THE ZONES/GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER UPDATES             
PLANNED.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
CONSIDINE                                                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 354 AM EST.                                        
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH NORTHERN             
ONTARIO WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND A                     
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE             
ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT/TROUGH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EXTENDING FROM             
JAMES BAY TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. IR SATELLITE/RADARS SHOW FRONT IS            
PRETTY MUCH DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WITH JUST SOME            
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.                                             
FIRST QUESTION THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITH PRECIP CHANCES HEADING INTO            
THE WEEKEND...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM                    
SWINGING THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ETA/GFS ARE NOW OVERALL SIMILAR                
WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT FEATURE TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT WILL                
HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. ETA HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD             
THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY...DEVELOPING MORE OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER              
THE PLAINS. HOWEVER THE ETA IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS BRINGING THE                 
FRONT THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...AND WILL LEAN                
TOWARD ITS SOLUTION GIVEN THE MORE WRAPPED-UP UPPER SYSTEM. 00Z                 
CANADIAN MAINTAINS ITS OPEN WAVE /AND IS NOW MORE OF AN OUTLIER/ BUT            
IS STILL SIMILAR TO THE ETA/GFS TIMING WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION.               
THE QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD FRONT              
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...SETTLING JUST SOUTH OF THE                
CWA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NO PRECIP OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY               
AND NONE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER WILL BE              
BROKEN TODAY...BUT WITH IT BEING MAINLY CIRRUS WILL STICK WITH A                
MORE OPTIMISTIC PARTLY SUNNY. ETA/GFS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THE               
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AT LEAST THROUGH F24 THIS EVENING. WILL TAPER             
HIGHS WITH A MODERATE GRADIENT THAT IS ABOUT 5-10F COLDER SOUTH TO              
NORTH THAN OBSERVED HIGHS YESTERDAY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT FRONT IS               
JUST APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CWA...AND 08Z OBSERVATIONS AT MBS/BAX             
ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY. THIS ACTUAL             
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN RECENT GUIDANCE /00Z MOS AS WELL AS              
05Z LAMP/. MAY SEE MORE OF A TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY ACROSS THE              
THE NORTHERN CWA.                                                               
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA/GFS BEGIN TO APPEAR TONIGHT...AS UPPER              
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO                   
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS ENERGY RIPPLES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES             
IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...OLD BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH               
ACROSS THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ETA...WITH               
THE NGM IN BETWEEN. ETA/GFS HAVE SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL JETS                         
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA POSITION GIVEN THE                     
NOCTURNAL TIMING AND WITH IT FIGHTING THE STABILIZING NORTHEAST FLOW            
OFF THE COOL LAKES HURON/ERIE. THIS HAS MORE OF AN IMPACT ON                    
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE GFS DOES TRY TO DEVELOP PRECIP            
TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS             
FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.                                                         
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT            
LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PROFILES SHOW NEARLY                
SATURATED LOW-LEVEL 850MB AND BELOW...AND GOOD SPEED/DIRECTIONAL                
SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION. SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE             
WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY                 
BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER VORT IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT.                   
THEREFORE WILL STICK WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH AND                   
DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTH. WILL ALSO TIGHTEN UP THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT             
BY A COUPLE DEGREES...STILL LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ETA FRONTAL                 
TIMING AS MENTIONED ABOVE.                                                      
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH                   
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINNING TO CUT OFF ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WAVE TRACKS            
ALONG THE EXISTING BOUNDARY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY                     
NIGHT...THEN VEERS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM                
BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. THIS HELPS TO PULL THE WARM FRONT FARTHER NORTH              
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ALSO RESULTS IN THE MAIN PRECIP FOCUS              
BEING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WE MAY ACTUALLY BE                  
SOMEWHAT DRY SLOTTED IN THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY...WITH LIMITED PRECIP               
POTENTIAL. WILL SCALE BACK ON THE PRECIP AND POP WORDING ACROSS THE             
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CWA A BIT...WITH MORE OF A CHANCE WORDING.                
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST WILL ACTUALLY              
BUMP POPS UP A BIT CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. WITH                 
GRADIENT IN POPS WILL ALSO KEEP THE GRADIENT IN                                 
TEMPERATURES...BUMPING THEM UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH.                  
MAIN STORY FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE SUNDAY                  
NIGHT/MONDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT POPS ARE LIKELY             
THAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ETA/GFS ARE SHOWING SOME            
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED OF THIS FRONT WHICH HAVE A BIG                
IMPACT ON PRECIP TIMING AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE.                
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ETA SOLUTION GIVEN THE WRAPPED-UP NATURE            
OF THE STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER WILL SPEED TIMING UP A BIT COMPARED TO             
CURRENT FORECAST. AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE 00Z ETA WOULD KEEP LIKELY             
POPS INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN MORE OF A SCATTERED MIX SHRA/SHSN               
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.               
WILL ALSO HOLD OFF ON DROPPING LOWS TOO MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CUT             
HIGHS BACK ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1025 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TEMPS/CLOUDS ONLY UPDATE CONCERNS                                               
MAIN SFC FRONT IN AREA IS SLIDING INTO SE LWR MI ATTM WITH STIFF                
W/NW WINDS USHERING IN MUCH COOLER DAY THAN 24 HRS AGO. NEITHER                 
ETA/RUC PEGGING STRONGER 15-30KT WINDS ACROSS NRN UPR MI/LK                     
SUPERIOR. AS HIGH PRESSURE OVR NRN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO REGION...WOULD            
IMAGINE STRONGER WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY LATE AFTN. THERMAL              
TROUGH WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -10C DOES BEGIN TO RETREAT LATER AFTN              
AS WELL. WINDS REMAINING FM W/NW SHOULD WITH ANY CLOUD COVER WILL               
PROHIBIT MUCH RISE FM CURRENT 30-35F READINGS. PLACES THAT ARE                  
MAINLY CLOUDY NOW (KEWEENAW PENINSULA DUE TO LK CLOUDS AND SRN ZONES            
FM MID LEVEL CLOUDS) SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR GOOD PORTION OF DAY.            
MINIMAL OVER WATER INSTABILITY/INVERSION HTS AROUND 900MB SO HAVE               
REMOVED FLURRIES FOR AFTN. STRIPE OF CLEAR SKIES FM GOGEBIC INTO NRN            
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY CONTINUES TO SHRINK AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS EDGE NWD.            
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS UPR DIVERGENCE FM 110KT JET PASSES OVER CWA            
THIS AFTN WHICH WILL ALLOW SCT-BKN150 CLOUDS FM SRN SD/MN INTO CNTRL            
WI TO SPILL ACROSS UPR MI.                                                      
PLAN TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.                 
GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE OTHERWISE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT MIZ004-005                                    
WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MIZ001>006-009>011-084.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1000 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                     
UPDATED TO REMOVE FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION FROM                                 
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORY SECTION.                                              
.DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC INDICATES EARLY MORNING WINDSHIFT INTO NE              
CORNER WON/T HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT WITH WINDS RETURNING TO SLY BY              
MIDDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDS NORTH AND FROM EAST SLPS CNTRL             
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.                                              
MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPARENT SAT/SUN WITH ETA SLOWER THAN                   
GFS...AND THEREFORE POSITION OF SURFACE LOW VARIES. REGARDLESS...               
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE COLD              
AIR AND STRONG WINDS. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST IF              
NOT ALL AREAS SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH FAR NE MAY BE QUESTIONABLE                    
DEPENDING WHERE THE SFC LOW ENDS UP.                                            
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MAY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE               
STRONG NW WINDS SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AREAS WHICH TEND TO IN NW FLOW.             
AS FOR SNOW...DUE TO THE STRONG WLYS...SOME OF THE USUAL SUSPECTS IN            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH MAY SEE A FEW INCHES BY                         
SUNDAY...SUCH AS CHAMA AND RED RIVER...BUT ATTM DOESN/T LOOK                    
PROMISING FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS.                                 
MONDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A DAY OF MODERATION...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH            
TUESDAY. GFS SHOWS SOME LINGERING PCPN POSSIBLE EARLY WED NORTH AND             
EAST. ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON................ 060/032 046/020 035 48012                            
GALLUP.................... 062/028 046/014 034 48011                            
GRANTS.................... 064/028 051/015 033 48000                            
GLENWOOD.................. 072/036 055/026 050 48000                            
CHAMA..................... 053/022 039/008 024 48013                            
LOS ALAMOS................ 057/032 045/015 030 48001                            
RED RIVER................. 052/021 043/010 023 48003                            
TAOS...................... 057/027 049/018 029 48002                            
SANTA FE.................. 060/030 050/019 032 48000                            
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 062/032 053/023 034 48000                            
ESPANOLA.................. 064/029 052/019 037 48000                            
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 065/038 055/029 039 48000                            
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 067/037 056/023 040 48000                            
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 061/039 050/026 036 48000                            
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 067/040 056/025 039 48000                            
SOCORRO................... 069/037 059/024 043 48000                            
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 061/036 050/025 033 48000                            
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 066/030 052/017 035 48000                            
CARRIZOZO................. 073/038 063/028 042 48000                            
RUIDOSO................... 066/035 058/022 038 48000                            
RATON..................... 068/026 050/016 028 48002                            
LAS VEGAS................. 069/032 053/018 030 48001                            
ROY....................... 068/033 055/021 029 48001                            
CLAYTON................... 069/039 060/024 029 48001                            
SANTA ROSA................ 074/037 063/024 034 48000                            
TUCUMCARI................. 078/043 070/031 039 48000                            
FORT SUMNER............... 076/038 063/026 037 48000                            
CLOVIS.................... 078/043 070/029 039 48000                            
PORTALES.................. 077/042 070/028 040 48000                            
ROSWELL................... 079/040 072/036 047 48000                            
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
905 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.UPDATE...ONLY QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY               
FOG IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON 18Z RUC AND ETA RUNS AS                
WELL AS THE 12Z RUNS OF WORKSTATION ETA...MM5 AND OTHER MODELS...IT             
APPEARS THAT RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR DEW TO DEVELOP WITH LOWS ABOUT            
5 DEGREES BELOW CURRENT DEW POINTS. THUS EXPECT AT LEAST GROUND FOG             
TO DEVELOP AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DATABASE.                             
HAVE ALSO MODIFIED WINDS (LOWERED SPEEDS) BASED ON 12Z 4KM MM5 WHICH            
IS CLOSEST TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SOME SCT CIRRUS, AS DISCUSSED IN            
PREVIOUS AFD, WILL COME IN BEFORE MORNING AS PER 18Z ETA RH FIELD               
AND ADVECTION OF CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY             
THIN. THE CIRRUS SHOULD GET OUT OF HERE BEFORE NOON.                            
DATABASE IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN THE NEXT             
WEEKS RAIN EVENTS.                                                              
******************* PREVIOUS 200 PM FORECAST ************************           
SHORT-TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND                 
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN                 
CLOUD-FREE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CIRRUS MOVING            
IN LATE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP SUNDAY                  
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
APPROACHES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE OUR LOW LEVEL            
MOISTURE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT                 
SUNDAY.                                                                         
MID-RANGE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY AND                 
TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA AGREE             
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE BONE DRY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND            
DON'T INCREASE MOISTURE CONTENT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNTIL                  
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER...I FEEL THAT                
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING TO SET UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND            
WITH THE MODELS DEPICTION OF THE MEAN FLOW BELOW 500 HPA WITH A                 
FETCH FROM THE GULF...HAVE TO THINK THAT WE WILL BE MORE MOIST THAN             
THEY INDICATE. THIS SHOULD ADD TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS PRESENT FROM             
MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE MODELS COME MORE IN             
LINE WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WITH AND JUST                
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL             
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM                
WILL APPROACH US WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF             
SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE AMOUNT OF TIME                 
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...WILL NOT TRY TO GET CUTE WITH TIMING AND                 
LEAVE THE DATABASE AS IS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MODELS DON'T              
SUGGEST THAT CHANGES ARE NEEDED.                                                
************** END OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ************************              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALIZED GROUND            
FOG IN THE HUDSON VALLEY IS EXPECT TO BE CONFINED TO HPN...MGJ AND              
POU. IT'S NOT IN THE TAF FOR HPN YET AND WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR 06                
ISSUANCE. IN THE POCKETS OF FOG IFR CONDITION WOULD FORM. THESE WILL            
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 13Z.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SE            
OF CAPE COD MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR THE WEEKEND...TRANQUIL                
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE            
AREA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO RE-DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AS HIGH             
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A                    
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN             
A NON-SIGNIFICANT SHOWER EVENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND                 
NIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE                   
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS SHOULD GIVE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS AMBLE              
OPPORTUNITY TO SETTLE BACK DOWN AFTER THE HEAVY RAINS A FEW DAYS AGO.           
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
DATABASE...TONGUE                                                               
AVIATION...AMBERGER (LAST)                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA                                         
635 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN LURKING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST              
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOW                         
EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.  LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIR HANDLE            
ON FRONTAL POSITIONING AND ASSOCIATED TEMPS...AND HAVE CHOSEN TO                
FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO.  UPDATED FORECAST ISSUED SHORTLY TO EXPAND                
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH.                                           
FORECAST ID= 07                                                                 
.TSA...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
715 PM MST THU NOV 20 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS INVERTED TROF ACROSS                    
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT MOST OF THE              
EVENING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE BLACK HILLS...EASTWARD TO THE                    
MISSOURI RIVER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BAND OF SNOW GENERALLY 2 TO             
4 INCHES...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.                
CURRENT RUC KEEPS SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE                   
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH A FEW MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY                
MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH                   
DAKOTA. LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE BLACK HILLS HAS BROUGHT SOME POCKETS              
OF DENSE FOG...AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST.                                    
REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE                 
WINDS/TEMPS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA                     
      TONIGHT...                                                                
   ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL                
      SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY...                                                  
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
340 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                        
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CURRENT SNOW SITUATION...AND SECOND WINTER            
STORM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.                                                     
LATEST OBS AND 88D RETURNS SHOW BROAD AREA OF SNOW LINING UP WITH               
RUC H70 FRONTOGENESIS. SA THIS AREA SLIDES EASTWARD..BASED ON ETA               
DEPICTION...SHOULD SEE LOW END ADVISORY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.                
NOT REAL CONCERNED WITH WIND TONIGHT.                                           
MODELS APPEAR CLOSER...BUT STILL A BIT APART...ONT THE SOLUTION FOR             
THE MAJOR SURFACE LOW TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRACK               
PLACES MOST...IF NOT ALL..THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OF            
CWA. ETA SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS WELL ENTRENCHED AT H70 OVER FSD                    
AREA...AND SOME NEGATIVE EPV* SOUTH OF THAT. DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD            
SKIRT MY SE CWA...SO EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN CURRENT LOW TRACK              
WILL BRING MY FAR SE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVIER SNOW AND ASSOCIATED              
STRONGER NORTHERLY WIND. PRUDENT THING TO DO IS ISSUE THE WATCH                 
UNTIL EXACT TRACK OF SURFACE LOW CAN BE CONFIRMED.                              
RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...CLOUDS...AND CAA WILL LIMIT BOTH DIURNAL TREND            
IN TEMPS AND ABILITY TO REALLY BOTTOM OUT AT NIGHT. STILL...TEMPS               
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAT RECENT MEMORY...AND WINDCHILLS IN             
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DISTINCT POSSIBILITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND              
MONDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION WITH NEAR ZONAL              
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN US. FIRST S/WV EXPECTED TO                  
IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY. 290K THETA SFC SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF               
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CWA. ALSO COULD SEE SOME ADDED LIFT WITH A             
110KT JET STREAK NEAR THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE CHANCE               
CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AND SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE             
CWA. CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY                   
CLEARING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES. GFS SHOWS             
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE THURSDAY AND MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES             
FRIDAY. LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A LEE SIDE TROUGH               
FORMING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN CO...AND PUSHING SLOWLY OFF TO THE              
NORTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF              
SNOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL            
THE MODELS LOOK MORE CERTAIN. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN                    
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER HOLDING                   
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN. ALSO H85 TEMPS STAY NEAR FREEZING OR                 
BELOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SO WILL NOT SEE A LOT OF WARMTH FROM               
MIXING AS WELL.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WINTER WX ADV FOR SNOW ENTIRE CWA TROUGH SAT MORNING.                      
...WINTER STORM WATCH EASTERN CWA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.              
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                  
MORNING.                                                                        
...WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HARDING/ALBRECHT                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
335 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO CURRENT ZONES AND GRIDS...MAINLY TO BUMP UP              
THE WINDS A CAT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A TIGHTER GRADIENT EXIST               
THERE. TWEAKED HIGHS A BIT BUT NOT MUCH AS CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS               
GOOD. DID NOT CHANGE PRECIP CHANCES AS LATEST MODELS STILL HAVE                 
SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AT RUC2 AND ETA SOUNDINGS            
LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE...SO SNOW SHOULDNT BEGIN TO               
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND UNTIL 19-21Z TIME FRAME.                                  
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                   
IN THE SHORT TERM...DECENT MID LEVEL FNTLGEN WL DEVELOP THIS AFTN               
ACRS FAR NRN CWA. HOWVR...LOW LEVEL DRY ELY FLOW WILL KEEP LAYER                
FRO  BECOMING SATURATED AND WL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. SO FEEL ONLY                
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AT BEST THIS AFTN. ANOTHER WK S/W TONIGHT                
ACRS CWA...BUT AGAIN DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. BEST LIFT WL BE ACRS NRN            
CWA AND WILL GO HIGHEST POP THERE...BUT STILL ONLY A CHC. NOT MUCH              
TO GRAB ONTO FOR SAT EXCEPT FOR WEKA LIFT AND PERSISTENT FNTGEN. LOW            
LEVELS WL SLOWLY BECOME SATURATED AS SFC WAVE FINALLY LIFTS NEWD OUT            
OF SRN ROCKIES. WL KEEP CHC OF LIGHT SNOW GOING ESPC N OF I90. TEMPS            
WL REMAIN COLD WITH NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SRN CWA WL SEE MORE SUN                
TODAY AND SHUD HEAT OUT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUID PROGS.                        
MAJOR STORM STILL BEING PROGGED LATE THIS WEEKEND BY MODELS AND ALL             
GETTING CLOSER TO ORIGINAL GFS SOLUTION. SOME DIF IN UPPER AIR AND              
SFC SOLUTIONS WITH CANADIEN MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WITH LESS NEGATIVE             
TILT. MOST MODELS HAVE SFC WAVE MOVE NEWD INTO ERN IA BY 18Z SUN.               
ETA HAS TYPICAL PRECIP BIAS WITH SHIFTING HEAVIEST PRECIP EWD WITH              
TIME. FEEL BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW WL FALL E OF JAMES RVR VALLEY. IF              
WAVE IS MORE OPEN THEN AMOUNTS WL NOT BE AS HIGH AS ETA OR GFS                  
SOLUTION. STILL FEEL 12 INCHES PSBL WITH THIS STORM WITH BULK                   
FALLING LATE SAT NITE INTO SUN. BUFFALO RIDGE CUD GET EVEN MORE WITH            
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR NOW AS                   
PLACMENT OF SNOW STILL NOT CERTAIN AND MOST LIKELY WL BE LATE 4TH               
INTO 5TH PD. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED CHC OF ZR- ACRS NW IA SAT EVE AS               
MID LEVEL COOLING SLOWER THAN PREV RUNS AND CUD START OUT AS ZR-                
BEFORE STG LIFT AND DYNAMIC COOLING SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW.                      
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS MON NITE WITH FREST SNOW COVER. ALSO A WEAK S/W              
WL MOVE ACRS CWA TUES AND BROUGHT IN MORE CLDS. WL LEAVE OUT ANY                
PRECIP FOR NOW.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
515 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
COLD FRONT AT 09Z FROM NEAR DALHART TO NEAR WHEELER MOVING SOUTH AS             
SHOWN BY AMA WSR88D. 10-15F TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS FRONT WITH MAX PRSR            
RISES OF 4 MB/3 HR ACROSS SE CO. THE MOTION OF THIS FRONT TODAY WILL            
HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.                              
THE 06 RUC PROVIDES THE MOST ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE CURRENT                  
DISPOSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND IT FCSTS THE CDFNT TO ADVANCE TO THE            
NW COUNTIES OF THE SPLNS BY 12Z AND MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY            
18Z. ONCE THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS MAKES IT INTO THE AREA...IT MAY BE               
MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THAN WHAT THE 0Z ETA/GFS SHOW. THESE                 
MODELS ALONG WITH THE 0Z MM5 DEPICT SFC WINDS TO RESPOND TO LEE-                
CYCLOGENESIS IN EASTERN CO BY FRI AFTN. FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE           
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO QUICKLY MIX OUT ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...BUT MAY              
HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME OFF THE CAPROCK. ESPECIALLY ACROSS                   
BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. MAY SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE              
DIFF ACROSS THE SPLNS TODAY...WITH THE SW COUNTIES APPROACHING 80               
DEGREES AND THE NE STUCK IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE ROOM              
FOR ERROR WITH THE VARIABLES OF CDFNT POSITION...DEPTH...AND                    
STRENGTH OF CYCLOGENESIS.                                                       
AS UPPER-LEVEL SYS SWINGS INTO THE ROCKIES FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS                 
SHOULD PICKUP AS SFC LOW IN SO COLO CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SHUD ALSO              
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS RESULTING IN A MILD NIGHT. THX MAF/AMA FOR                
COORDINATION.  MC.                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
STRONG SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NM WILL SHIFT EAST INTO OK ON SAT IN            
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.                
THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY FOR SAT. HOWEVER...             
AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH              
THROUGH THE CWFA SAT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING                
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ONE-THIRD OF THE CWFA BY SUN MORNING.              
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE                   
PLUMMETING SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. THOSE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT             
DO NOT EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SUN MORNING WILL MORE THAN LIKELY                    
EXPERIENCE IT MON MORNING. LACK OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                
SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG AND                
BEHIND COLD FRONT. IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING              
AND DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WARMING TREND             
IS IN STORE FROM MON AFTERNOON THROUGH THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY              
IMPACT THE REGION AROUND FRI...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE                
MINOR.  JH.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA       68  39  72  26 /   0   0   0  10                                   
TULIA        68  40  72  26 /   0   0   0  10                                   
PLAINVIEW    69  41  73  28 /   0   0   0   0                                   
LEVELLAND    75  42  75  30 /   0   0   0   0                                   
LUBBOCK      75  44  75  30 /   0   0   0   0                                   
BROWNFIELD   79  44  76  32 /   0   0   0   0                                   
CHILDRESS    68  47  72  33 /   0   0   0  10                                   
SPUR         76  47  75  33 /   0   0   0   0                                   
ASPERMONT    80  49  77  37 /   0   0   0   0                                   
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
33/02                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
440 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
...PRELIMINARY FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                           
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
COLD FRONT AT 09Z FROM NEAR DALHART TO NEAR WHEELER MOVING SOUTH AS             
SHOWN BY AMA WSR88D. 10-15F TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS FRONT WITH MAX PRSR            
RISES OF 4 MB/3 HR ACROSS SE CO. THE MOTION OF THIS FRONT TODAY WILL            
HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.                              
THE 06 RUC PROVIDES THE MOST ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE CURRENT                  
DISPOSITION OF SFC FEATURES AND IT FCSTS THE CDFNT TO ADVANCE TO THE            
NW COUNTIES OF THE SPLNS BY 12Z AND MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY            
18Z. ONCE THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS MAKES IT INTO THE AREA...IT MAY BE               
MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THAN WHAT THE 0Z ETA/GFS SHOW. THESE                 
MODELS ALONG WITH THE 0Z MM5 DEPICT SFC WINDS TO RESPOND TO LEE-                
CYCLOGENESIS IN EASTERN CO BY FRI AFTN. FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE           
SHALLOW ENOUGH TO QUICKLY MIX OUT ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES...BUT MAY              
HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME OFF THE CAPROCK. ESPECIALLY ACROSS                   
BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. MAY SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE              
DIFF ACROSS THE SPLNS TODAY...WITH THE SW COUNTIES APPROACHING 80               
DEGREES AND THE NE STUCK IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE ROOM              
FOR ERROR WITH THE VARIABLES OF CDFNT POSITION...DEPTH...AND                    
STRENGTH OF CYCLOGENESIS.                                                       
AS UPPER-LEVEL SYS SWINGS INTO THE ROCKIES FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS                 
SHOULD PICKUP AS SFC LOW IN SO COLO CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SHUD ALSO              
SEE INCREASING CIRRUS RESULTING IN A MILD NIGHT. THX MAF/AMA FOR                
COORDINATION.  MC.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA       68  39  72  26 /   0   0   0  10                                   
TULIA        68  40  72  26 /   0   0   0  10                                   
PLAINVIEW    69  41  73  28 /   0   0   0   0                                   
LEVELLAND    75  42  75  30 /   0   0   0   0                                   
LUBBOCK      75  44  75  30 /   0   0   0   0                                   
BROWNFIELD   79  44  76  32 /   0   0   0   0                                   
CHILDRESS    68  47  72  33 /   0   0   0  10                                   
SPUR         76  47  75  33 /   0   0   0   0                                   
ASPERMONT    80  49  77  37 /   0   0   0   0                                   
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
33/02                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                             
840 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...ONGOING CONCERN             
CONTINUES TO BE THE WINDS OVER THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MID              
EVENING KSFO-KLAS SURFACE GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHENED TO A VERY ROBUST            
20.2 MB. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW DIVING                
INTO THE CWFA...WITH A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT H25 JET ROUNDING THE                
BASE OF THE TROUGH. JAWBONE AND INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAWS...ALONG                
WITH GOVERNMENT PEAK ARPS HAVE ALL REGISTERED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS              
OF 50 MPH THIS EVENING...EASILY ACHIEVING WAD CRITERIA. EXPECT MORE             
WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION OF THESE WINDS...OR STRONGER...DURING THE               
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENT LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET                  
PASSES OVER THE KERN DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS. RUC H7 PROGS SUGGEST                
SOLID DVM DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION BY 12Z. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE             
CAREFULLY MONITORED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW TO ENSURE THEY DO NOT LAPSE            
INTO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. BUT WITH THE KSFO-KLAS SURFACE                 
GRADIENT PROJECTED TO RELAX TO 9-10 MB BY 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS                
ALOFT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...TENDENCY FOR INCREASED               
SURFACE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DOWNWARD TRANSPORT SHOULD BE             
AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET. ANOTHER POINT OF CONTENTION INVOLVES                 
STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE                   
PLUMMETED OVER 20 DEGF IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS            
OF OUR VALLEY...WITH MUCH SMALLER DROPS THUS FAR AT THE SOUTH END.              
VALLEY PROFILERS AND KHNX VWP SHOW STRONG NW FLOW IN AND JUST ABOVE             
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND REALLY DO NOT THINK DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR IN             
THIS PATTERN OVERNIGHT. IN-HOUSE OBJECTIVE TEMPERATURE AIDS SUGGEST             
LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEY...WITH             
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST LIMITED TO AREAS EXTREMELY SHELTERED FROM               
THE WIND...IF EVEN THERE. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL CERTAINLY BE A MUCH               
DIFFERENT STORY AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX AND GOOD                     
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS UP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THESE ASPECTS             
COVERED VERY WELL AND WILL NOT UPDATE.                                          
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH                            
FRIDAY...EXTENDED PROGS BRING A DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH AN             
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL CA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY TIME            
FRAME. SUCCESSIVE RUNS THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS               
SYSTEM AND THE 18Z RUN PUSHES A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH            
THE CWFA MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS BEING SLOWER                
WITH IT/S SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION WILL BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS              
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER             
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN                  
JOAQUIN VALLEY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING.                           
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/UKMET ALL INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO              
CENTRAL CA FROM OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP WILL TRANQUIL            
WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WEDNESDAY. GFS INDICATING                  
ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVING INTO THE PAC NW ON THANKSGIVING              
DAY WHICH WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL CA. A                      
DEFORMATION BAND THEN IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CWFA ON THURSDAY NIGHT            
OR FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY 7 ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS            
SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN...WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS                 
ACROSS THE CWFA EXCEPT IN THE KERN DESERTS. THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE              
PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD INHIBIT TULE FOG FORMATION IN THE            
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY             
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                      
&&                                                                              
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURGER/DS                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
925 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC HAS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST                   
OF THE CWA AND THE MSAS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE                    
SE STATES...WITH A RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF. STLT AND MTR              
OBS SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE PATCHY FOG FROM EARLIER GONE.             
PUBLIC ZONES ON TRACK AND WILL UPDATE AROUND 930 ONLY TO REMOVE                 
MORNING FOG IN THE FIRST PERIOD. BUOY DATA SUPPORT ONGOING COASTAL              
WATERS FORECAST AND WILL ISSUE BY 1020 WITH OUT CHANGE.                         
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
RKR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1044 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2003                                                     
.UPDATE...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SW MISSOURI TO THE                
MICHIGAN/OHIO STATE LINE. MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN             
A BIT SLOWER THAN PROGGED BY EARLIER MODEL RUNS...LIKELY DUE TO                 
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THIS                 
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE M-59 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE             
WILL BE QUITE A THERMAL CONTRAST SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AS TEMP ACROSS             
CENTRAL INDIANA ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 50S. THE 12Z MODEL                       
RUNS...PARTICULARLY THE ETA...OVERESTIMATED THE 925MB TEMPS ACROSS              
LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND COLDER               
AIR BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION THAN INDICATED BY MODELS...WILL                 
LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES NORTH OF AN ANN ARBOR TO                 
DETROIT LINE. MESO ETA AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON            
DO NOT SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT THE CURRENT CHANCE OF                 
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...HAVE NOTICED QUITE A BIT OF IFR CEILINGS ALONG               
AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.             
THEREFORE...THINK MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF LOW                  
MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT                   
MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST AND ACTUALLY EXPAND IT SOUTH TO              
THE M-59 CORRIDOR.                                                              
&&                                                                              
CONSIDINE                                                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 408 AM.                                            
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE              
WESTERN CONUS...WITH FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHEAR            
AXIS/SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...OTHERWISE A              
FEW WEAKER IMPULSES UPSTREAM EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW. SURFACE                 
ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC COAST BACK TO            
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER                       
MISSOURI...WITH DEVELOPING LOW STILL OVER THE SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL               
RADARS SHOW NO PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH LOWER              
CEILINGS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.                    
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN               
TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS             
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...MAKING EXACT              
DETAILS SOMEWHAT SKETCHY BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN                       
REASONABLE. GFS HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER                       
TROUGH...CLOSING OFF A CIRCULATION AND TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY             
MONDAY. ETA HAS PLAYED CATCHUP WITH THE GFS...AND A DPROG-DT AT F48             
/00Z MONDAY/ ALMOST LOOKS MORE LIKE A TIME PROGRESSION THAN A TREND             
AT A SINGLE TIMESTEP. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD                
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ETA CONTINUES TO BE FASTER/FARTHER EAST THAN THE              
GFS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM WRAPS UP. MAIN            
DIFFERENCES AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT FORECAST IMPACT ARE MAINLY                    
CONFINED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ADDRESS THOSE LATER IN THIS                 
DISCUSSION.                                                                     
FOR TODAY THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH PRECIP CHANCES AS THE BOUNDARY              
JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. COMPARED TO              
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM..THE ETA LOOKED TO BE A BIT OVERDONE              
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. ALSO BETTER MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE IS                
LOCATED TO THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE OVER                 
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL NOT SEE MUCH            
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP. FARTHER NORTH THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH                
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP IN A CHANCE. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A                
NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION...WITH LAMP                 
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING LOWER MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH. AS DEEPER            
MOISTURE STILL IS LACKING...WILL KEEP THE PRECIP MENTION TO JUST                
DRIZZLE. SHOULD SEE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH TO                      
SOUTH...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY /UPPER 40S NORTH TO              
UPPER 50S SOUTH/.                                                               
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH STRONG                     
SHORTWAVE NOW IN THE BASE ROTATING UP THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE. AHEAD OF             
THIS UPPER ENERGY...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE LINGERING                   
BOUNDARY...AND MOVES INTO IOWA/ILLINOIS PER GFS/ETA. SOUTHERLY FLOW             
PICKS UP OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...WITH DECENT WARM                 
ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING VERY MUCH...AND                     
EVENTUALLY RISING A BIT OVERNIGHT. STILL NOT TOO SURE ABOUT                     
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT THIS POINT...AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST                
CWA. WILL REMOVE POPS SOUTH OF PHN-PTK-ARB...BUT LEAVE A CHANCE IN              
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS CLOSER TO              
THE SYSTEM.                                                                     
SIMILAR THINKING CARRIES OVER INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND              
TRACKS UP TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN PER GFS/ETA.             
FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COULD SEE EVEN MORE DRY SLOTTING DURING THE              
DAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE SOLUTION TO PULL PRECIP OUT               
JUST YET. ACTUALLY TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING A GOOD 15-20                 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF THEY SEE SOME             
SUN. COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST AND NORTH CLOSER TO               
THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS IN AHEAD OF            
THE FRONT...WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR/JUST BELOW 0C. ACTUALLY WITH A MORE            
EASTERN TRACK...WE COULD SQUEEZE SOME THUNDER IN ACROSS THE FAR                 
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER WILL JUST ADD AN ISOLATED THUNDER               
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY AREAS WITH              
THE HIGHER POPS/SCATTERED WORDING.                                              
MAIN STORY OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT RIPS THROUGH LOWER             
MICHIGAN. VERY STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE               
FRONT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING OVER 1.2". THIS IS ALMOST             
300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR DTX...AND WOULD BE THE HIGHEST OBSERVED               
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IF IT PANS OUT. STRONG WIND FIELD WITH +50KT              
850MB JET CONTINUING TO FEED INTO THE STATE SUNDAY/INTO SUNDAY                  
NIGHT. STRONGEST 500MB JET /+110KTS/ LAGS THE 850MB JET AND                     
FROPA...NOT MOVING THROUGH UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z. HOWEVER ALONG THE               
FRONT THERE IS STILL A GOOD 80KTS AT 500MB. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM             
IS VERY DYNAMIC...AND WITH THE UPPER LOW WRAPPING UP/CUTTING OFF AS             
IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ETA/GFS BOTH DEPICT +300M 12H                 
HEIGHT FALLS AT 500MB /ETA CONTINUING TO BE FASTER THAN THE                     
GFS...12Z MONDAY COMPARED TO 18Z/. TIMING CONTINUES TO FAVOR FROPA              
DURING THE NIGHT...AND EVEN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WILL OPT FOR A                
CATEGORICAL WORDING/80 PERCENT CHANCE. INSTABILITY IS STILL RATHER              
MARGINAL...BUT WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF THUNDER. GIVEN THE STRONG               
WIND PROFILE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.                    
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GFS MAINTAINS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK TO THE                 
SURFACE LOW...AND IS SLOWER THAN THE ETA MOVING EAST. THIS WILL HAVE            
AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED STRONG               
COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY...LOWS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHS              
ON MONDAY AS WELL. ETA IS FASTER BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN...7C                  
COLDER AT 850MB/16M LOWER WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BY 12Z MONDAY.            
ITS EVEN LOWER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER FOR             
SOME VERY STRANGE REASON THE ETA-MOS GUIDANCE IS WARMER THAN THE                
GFS-MOS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS. TO THE TUNE OF 20 DEGREES. THE ETA IS            
TOO WARM WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S...AND THE GFS IS TOO COLD              
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. COULD UNDERSTAND SOME SORT OF             
DISCREPANCY GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD               
FRONT/THERMAL GRADIENT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE NO REASON FOR THE                  
FASTER /AND THEREFORE COLDER/ ETA TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS. WILL               
HAVE TO FOLLOW UP ON THIS LATER. IN THE MEAN TIME...WILL LEAVE LOW              
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY AROUND                      
40F...ALTHOUGH TAPERED A BIT LOWER IN THE SOUTH AS COLD AIR WRAPS IN            
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SLIGHT TIMING ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE SPEED OF THE             
FRONT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND              
AGAIN WITH THE HIGHS ON MONDAY.                                                 
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH              
VERY COLD AIR POURING INTO THE STATE BEHIND IT ON MONDAY. 850MB                 
TEMPS DROP NEAR -13C BY 00Z MONDAY. WITH A LAKE MICHIGAN WATER                  
TEMPERATURE AROUND 7-9C PER LATEST GLERL ANALYSIS/BUOY                          
OBSERVATIONS...WE WILL SEE A DELTA-T AROUND 20C. GOOD WRAP AROUND               
MOISTURE WITH 1000-850MB RH OVER 85 PERCENT...AS WELL AS GOOD                   
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 9C/KM.                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG...WITH 1000-850MB FLOW NEAR 40KTS              
OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY. WILL WILL HELP TO SPREAD LAKE EFFECT OFF             
MICHIGAN WELL ACROSS THE STATE. IT WILL ALSO WORK TO PREVENT                    
ORGANIZED BANDING...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LAYING DOWN              
LITTLE ACCUMULATION.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1005 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2003                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...SHORT TERM (THIS AFTN)...                                                    
12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WRN TROF/ERN RDG FLOW ALF               
OVER THE CONUS. SHARP WSW-ENE ORIENTED AND SHALLOW SFC-H85 FRONTAL              
ZONE NOTED FM THE PLAINS INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES. AREA OF COLDER               
CLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV LIFTING AWAY FM MAIN WRN TROF AND               
OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES NOTED NR THIS BNDRY IN THE CNTRL PLAINS AND            
MOVG NE TOWARD THE CNTRL GRT LKS...BUT LTL PCPN OBSVD SO FAR WITH               
FNT STILL CUTOFF FM GLFMEX MSTR (WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT). ANOTHER BAND            
OF COLDER CLD TOPS NOTED WELL N OF THE MAIN FNT TOWARD CENTER OF                
DEEPER COLD AIR AND ARCTIC HI PRES OVER SCNTRL CAN. THIS AREA OF                
DEEPER CLD/-SN LINKED TO RATHER SHEARED LOOKING SHRTWV OVER THE NRN             
PLAINS AND BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT IN DEEPER COLD AIR AS DEPICTED ON             
06Z ETA F6 280K SFC. ALTHOUGH ERN EDGE OF NRN CLD SHIELD HAS MOVED              
INTO WRN LK SUP...DRY AIR WEDGE ARND H85 AS DEPICTED ON 12Z GRB/APX             
SDNGS...AND EVEN DEEPER DRY AIR SHOWN ON 12Z INL SDNG (SFC DWPTS AOB            
10F N OF LK SUP AS FAR S OF CKC ON THE MN NORTHSHORE)...HAS                     
PREVENTED ANYTHING MORE THAN LGT SN/FLURRIES OVER MAINLY THE W HALF             
OF CWA. TEMPS AS LO AS THE UPR 20S ACRS THE WRN ZNS...BUT AS HIGH AS            
35 TO 37 OVER THE E. DESPITE SHALLOW NATURE OF COLD AIR...BOTH 12Z              
GRB AND APX SDNGS INDICATE RATHER STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES BLO LO FNTL            
INVRN.                                                                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTN ARE PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE/PSBL SN               
AMTS/ GOING HEADLINES. BOTH ETA/RUC SHOW INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON              
280K-295K SFCS (H875-7) DURG THE AFTN AS SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM THE               
CNTRL PLAINS MOVES INTO WI. BOTH RUC AND ETA CONCUR DEEPER                      
SATURATION OCCURS FARTHER N OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE W HALF OF             
CWA THIS AFTN WHERE INITIALLY DRY AIR HAS A LONGER PD OF LIFT TO                
ACHIEVE SATURATION AND WHERE UPR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IS A               
BIT MORE INTENSE. SO GOING FCST OF SN BECMG STEADIER OVER THE WRN               
HALF THIS AFTN APPEARS ON TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE IMXR METHOD WOULD SUG             
UP TO 3"/ 6 HRS IS PSBL...THINK DRY ADVCTN (OF AIRMASS DEPICTED ON              
12Z INL SDNG AND N OF LK SUP) ASSOCIATED WITH AGEOSTROPHIC...CROSS              
ISOBARIC LLVL FLOW IN CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHTENING TEMP               
GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF WARM FNT WL HOLD ACCUMS DOWN TO AN INCH                  
DESPITE SOME UPSLOPING OVER HIER TERRAIN W OF MQT. THIS THEORY                  
BACKED UP BY SATURATION OCCURRING LATER ON 280K SFC (ARND H85 WHERE             
INITIAL DRY WEDGE LOCATED). ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT RATHER DISORGANIZED            
LOOK TO COLDER CLD TOP PATTERN THIS MRNG...WITH SEPARATE UNPHASED               
SHRTWVS/CLD LEAFS...WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON TO HOLD FCST SN AMTS                
DOWN. OVER THE E...LOOK FOR NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES/SPRINKLES FOR            
THE AFTN. RUC FCST SDNG FOR MNM SHOWS DEPTH OF >0C WBLB IS DEEPER               
THAN 1K FT THIS AFTN... DEEP ENUF FOR LIQUID PCPN.                              
SINCE SYS LOOKS MORE DISORGANIZED ATTM AND DRY ADVCTN WL NEGATIVELY             
IMPACT SN ACCUMS...HAVE OPTED TO PUSH BACK START OF WINTER STORM                
WRNG HEADLINE FOR THE WRN ZNS UNTIL 6 PM. SEE DISCUSSION BLO FOR                
DETAILS ON TNGT.                                                                
KC                                                                              
...LONGER TERM (FM MIDNGT SHIFT)...                                             
LOOKS LIKE THE ETA IS TOO FAST AND TO FAR N WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN            
VORT CURRENTLY OVER NRN CALIFORNIA. NOT SURE WHAT THIS WILL DO WITH             
RESPECT TO THE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS...SINCE THE ETA              
IS STILL FURTHER E WITH THE LOW COMPARED TO THE GFS.                            
INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ETA DID NOT ANALYZE THE HIGH OVER              
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS STRONG ENOUGH WHICH WOULD TEND TO PUSH THE                  
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLIGHTLY FURTHER E THAN WHAT THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST.             
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE STILL 2 CAMPS...WITH THE ETA AND CANADIAN                  
GLOBAL STILL TRACKING EAST FROM GRB TO WHITEFISH PT...WITH THE GFS              
TRACKING WEST OVER CENTRAL UPR MICH. TRACK OF THE LOW DEPENDS                   
DIRECTLY ON WHEN OF IF THE UPR LOW CLOSES OFF AND THE TROUGH BECOMES            
NEGATIVE. TOUGH TO SAY RIGHT NOW AS SYSTEM JUST COMING ONSHORE IN               
CALIFORNIA. SINCE THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW IS STILL HIGHLY                
UNCERTAIN...THE PCPN TYPE FCST IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ALTHOUGH IT            
IS COMING A LITTLE BETTER INTO FOCUS. IMAGINE THERE WILL BE A PRETTY            
SHARP RAIN/SNOW LINE WITH LITTLE ICE EXPECTED. HOWEVER IT IS LOOKING            
A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN THAT THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL BE ALL               
RAIN SUN/SUN EVENING. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW ON PCPN            
TYPE SPECIFICS...ESPECIALLY FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT.                              
HOWEVER...WE FIRST NEED TO FOCUS ON THE NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW               
THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TONIGHT. LATEST            
ETA PROGS SHOW A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB ACROSS THE               
CWFA TONIGHT. THE ETA SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SW-NE ORIENTED AREA             
OF FRONTOGENESIS(FGEN) OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH THE                   
ASSOCIATED RESPONSE OF 650-600MB FN VECTOR DIV IMMEDIATELY TO THE               
SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN FGEN BAND. THE BEST AGEO VERT CIRC ASSOCIATED             
WITH THE FGEN IS OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FROM GOGEBIC TO                    
BARAGA/SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES. ETA ALSO SHOWS A THIN LAYER OF DRY AIR            
AROUND 650MB WHICH ADVECTS INTO THIS SAME AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR             
SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS FGEN AREA IS               
ALSO COUPLED WITH A DUAL JET STRUCTURE...WITH UPR DIVERGENCE                    
MAXIMIZED OVER THE WEST TONIGHT. WITH THIS BAND MAXIMIZED OVER THE              
WESTERN UP...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE WEST WILL SEE THE BEST SNOW                  
TONIGHT. NOW IT SEEMS THAT DESPITE UPSLOPE FLOW...LAKE ENHANCEMENT              
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK...MARQUETTE COUNTY MIGHT  BE SPARED              
WARN CRITERIA SNOW TONIGHT AS BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE OVER               
THE WEST. IN FACT...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WARN                  
CRITERIA SNOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AS WELL AS SRN              
HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW/LAKE ENHANCEMENT                
COMBINED WITH FGEN FORCING MAY PUSH AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM THE               
HURON MOUNTAINS TO WATERSMEET INTO WARN CRITERIA. THEREFORE...WILL              
GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING(THRU MON) FOR THAT AREA...BUT WILL               
STICK TO A SNOW ADVY FOR MQT...IRON AND NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW                   
COUNTIES.                                                                       
THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE MAIN SYSTEM SUN INTO MON MORNING. TOUGH TO             
SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE TRACK MIGHT GO...BUT CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE                
MODELS SEEM REASONABLE...WHICH WOULD TRACK THE OVER EASTERN UPPER               
MICHIGAN AND INTO FAR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY MON MORNING. THIS IS             
A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREV RUNS. 850MB TEMP SPREAD OVER THE CWFA IS              
GREATER THAN 10C...SO THERE ARE PCPN TYPE ISSUES ACROSS THE MAJORITY            
OF THE CWFA. LATEST TRACK WOULD TURN THE EAST TO ALL RAIN WITH 850MB            
TEMPS RISING TO +9C WITH SFC WINDS OVER LUC/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES                
BECOMING SLY. TO THE WEST OF THE LOW...WINDS WILL STAY NE WHICH                 
KEEPS COLD LOW LEVEL AIR ENTRENCHED. HOWEVER...THE 850MB WARM FRONT             
SNEAKS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO THE CENTRAL UP ALLOWING FOR AN                
ABOVE FREEZING LAYER TO DEVELOP ABOVE THE COLD DOME NR THE SFC. IF              
THE ETA WOULD HOLD TRUE...THIS WOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SLEET OVER             
THE NORTH CENTRAL AREA...AND HAVE OPTED TO PUT THAT IN THE FCST.                
THINK THAT COLD DOME TO THE WEST OF THE LOW WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO             
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR ZR. ALL MODELS SHOW THE WEST STAYING ALL               
SNOW...INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOST GFS SOLN. SO...HAVE GONE WITH S+              
OVER THE WEST WITH THE COMBO OF STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE                         
DYNAMICS...UPSLOPE NE FLOW AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS                
AROUND -8C. SEE NO REASON WHY TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE ETA QPF FOR              
SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH A 15:1 RATIO YIELDING 7-10 INCHES SUN OVER THE              
WEST. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DRY SLOT MOVING N INTO THE                
CWFA SUN...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT LESS SNOW AMOUNTS OVER               
THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. EVEN IF THE DRY SLOT IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED...AM            
CONCERNED ABOUT THE CHANGE OVER TO SLEET/RAIN WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON            
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL GENERALLY GO A 4-8 INCHES OVER THE NORTH                    
CENTRAL...AND 3-6 IRON/DICKINSON. WILL KEEP ALL WATCHES AS IS FOR               
NOW(EXCEPT WHERE THE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS ISSUANCE). IF             
THINGS CONTINUE AS IS...IRON/DICKINSON WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO BE                  
DROPPED THIS AFTN.                                                              
AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NE SUN NIGHT/MON...THE WINDS SHOULD                     
SLOWLY TURN N-NW WITH 850MB TEMPS LOWERING TO -10 TO -12C ACROSS THE            
ENTIRE CWFA BY MON AFTN. PLENTY OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER                   
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO CONTINUE THRU            
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF BLOWING...WITH LAKE            
ENHANCEMENT BEING SEEN A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND THAN NORMAL.                     
REST OF FCST FOR MON NIGHT-FRI REMAINS UNCHANGED.                               
MRD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MIZ002-004-009-084.                 
SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT MIZ001-003-005-010.                                       
WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MIZ001-003-005-006-011.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
945 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION                                                                     
AM BEGINNING TO SEE THE WHITES OF THE STORM'S EYES NOW AS 06Z/NEW               
12Z RUNS COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON TRACK/STRENGTH/QPF PLACEMENT.                 
STILL WILL BE MESOSCALE VARIABLES BUT LARGE SCALE PICTURE BECOMING              
MORE CLEAR. 12Z ETA SHIFTING 100M WEST ON SFC LOW...06Z GFS SHIFTING            
EAST...AND EVERYTHING NOW POINTING AT SIG SNOW EVENT FROM NEW ULM               
THRU METRO TO RICE LAKE. WILL NEED TO SEE IF 12Z GFS COMES IN LINE              
WITH THIS...AND IF IT DOES...MAY GO WITH WARNING FOR METRO COUNTIES             
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                
IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...BASED FCST SOLEY ON RUC FORCING PARAMETERS.            
FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BAND OF OF 4-10" OF SNOW LAST NIGHT IN VRY             
NARROW LINE FROM CANBY TO WILLMAR HAS LAID DOWN SOME SERIOUS POWDER             
AS DESCRIBED FROM CO-OP OBSERVERS. THIS HAS DIMINISHED AND PUSHED               
OFF...AND NOW FOCUS TURNS TO ANOTHER BAND OF FRONTO-FORCED SNOW IN              
H7-H6 LAYER ACRS NWRN 1/2 OF CWA. SEEING ECHOES ON REG 88D'S GROWING            
IN ERN SD/ND AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE ACRS CWA THIS AFTN. FORCING              
NOT TERRIBLY STRONG...SO 1-3" AT MOST IN NRN/WRN CWA. AS THIS BATCH             
OF FRONTO FORCING WEAKENS...VRY STRONG Q/G FORCING IN FORM OF H5/H3             
CONV-Q OVR TOP STRONG H7 THERMAL RIBBON SHOULD BEGIN THE BIG SHOW.              
WV PICS AND 12Z RAOBS IN THE FOUR CORNERS SHOWING THIS STORM EVERY              
BIT AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...WITH H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 140DM             
IN SRN NEV...AND BROAD/STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AS STRONG S/W ENERGY                 
COMES 'ROUND THE BASE. WHILE SFC LOW...OR EVEN SFC PRES FALLS HAVE              
YET TO DEVELOP...THIS SHOULD OCCUR RAPIDLY TODAY.                               
LOOKING FOR MOD SNOWS THIS EVENING TURNING HEAVIER IN COMMA HEAD OVR            
CNTL CWA SUNDY MORNING. WINDS WILL MAKE A MESS. UPDATES OUT TO ADD              
TIMING TO 1ST PD...PERHAPS ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND NOON TO UPGRADE                
SOME CNTL MN COUNTIES TO WARNING STATUS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT              
     ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO CAMBRIDGE.                  
     WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF A LINE             
     FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO CAMBRIDGE.                                           
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                           
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
505 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPR-LEVEL TROF BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OUT OF THE PAC NW INTO THE                 
CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE TROF AXIS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS CO AS                
H250 JET ENERGY SHIFTS OVER THE SPLNS.                                          
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE             
DAY SAT OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TX            
PANHANDLE BY EVE AND THEN ACCELERATE OUT INTO KS/OK AT NIGHT. SAME              
AS YSTDY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NE                 
COUNTIES AND THE RUC KEEPS IT IN PLACE UNTIL LATE AFTN. YSTDY THERE             
WAS ABOUT A 20 DEGREE RANGE IN THE HIGH TEMPS AND EXPECT A SIMILAR              
PATTERN TODAY...EXCEPT WITH A SMALLER RANGE.  RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 81            
DEGREES IN LBB SHOULD BE SAFE AS HIGHS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY            
INCREASED CLOUDINESS.                                                           
WELL-ADVERTISED STG CDFNT ARRIVAL IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BY                   
MIDNIGHT WITH THE 6Z AVN A LITTLE FASTER THAN ETA/PREVIOUS RUNS. CAA            
WILL BE IMPRESSIVE AS TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY DROP TO AROUND FREEZING                
BEHIND FRONT. 300MB RH/CPD FIELDS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL BAND OF HIGH                 
CLOUDS AHD OF TROF AXIS DURING SAT MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...BUT                 
EXITING THE AREA BY EVE. MODELS DEPICT A SHORT PERIOD (10-14Z) OF               
HIGH RH AND PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUN MORN.                  
THERE WILL BE NO RELIEF FROM WIND ON SAT AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE               
HIGH BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  MODEL DISCREPANCIES ONCE                 
AGAIN A PROBLEM AS...FOR EXAMPLE...AVN SHOWING 40+ KTS AT 850MB 6PM             
SAT WITH ETA IN THE MID 30S. DONT THINK HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH               
MIXING TOO MUCH AND SW COUNTIES SHOULD BE VERY NEAR ADVISORY AND RED            
FLAG CRITERIA SAT AFTN. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO            
BE SLIGHTLY LESS BUT STILL WELL UP INTO THE 20S AND 30S WITH WIND               
CHILLS INTO THE TEENS BY SUN MORN.  MC.                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
APOLOGIES FOR LONG DELAY IN AFD ISSUANCE...BUT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE             
TO MAKE SENSE OF COMPLEX WX CHANGES AND FUSE ALL OF THE VARIOUS WX              
HIGHLIGHTS WE HAVE GOING ON.                                                    
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE HIGH             
PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW            
ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WILL BE               
WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODERATE STRONG LOW-LEVEL                  
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COMBINATION OF STRONG               
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ON BACKSIDE OF                    
SHORTWAVE AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF EXITING SURFACE               
CYCLONE...WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT                
SOME LOCATIONS AGAIN. FURTHERMORE...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY               
KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING VERY MUCH ABOVE MORNING               
VALUES. DESPITE FORECAST VALUES ALREADY UNDER-CUTTING MODEL                     
GUIDANCE...NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO FURTHER LOWER SUNDAY/S HIGHS. VERY            
COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN AND             
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS AROUND. AGAIN...NEXT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER            
DROPPING MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL. AREAS THAT MAY MISS           
HARD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL NOT ESCAPE THE HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SUNDAY             
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THUS...REASONING FOR FREEZE WARNING ACROSS FAR            
SOUTHERN ZONES AND SOUTHEAST QUARTER SUNDAY NIGHT.                              
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID             
WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...NOT AS STRONG              
OR AS COLD AS IMMEDIATE FRONT...IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY                           
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  JH.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA       73  23  34  13 /   0  10   0   0                                   
TULIA        69  26  35  15 /   0  10   0   0                                   
PLAINVIEW    73  27  37  16 /   0   0   0   0                                   
LEVELLAND    76  30  38  17 /   0   0   0   0                                   
LUBBOCK      77  30  38  17 /   0   0   0   0                                   
BROWNFIELD   77  33  40  18 /   0   0   0   0                                   
CHILDRESS    64  32  38  19 /   0  10  10   0                                   
SPUR         78  34  41  19 /   0   0   0   0                                   
ASPERMONT    80  40  44  19 /   0   0   0   0                                   
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR TXZ033>035-039>041.                                     
RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ033>035-039>041.                         
FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR TXZ021>031-033>036.                                  
FREEZE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ032-037>044.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
33/02                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
102 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2003                                                      
.OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW A SHORT WAVE              
MOVING INTO THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4             
CORNERS REGION. DOWNSTREAM, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM              
FL NEWD UP THE ERN SEABOARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER             
SE GA.                                                                          
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL                   
PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHORT WAVE              
WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUN. BY 12Z MON, MODEL CONSENSUS                
SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS NEWD INTO            
ONTARIO, THE ENERGY OVER THE SERN U.S. BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED             
AND WEAKENED. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC                    
TONIGHT. WEAK SE LOW LEVEL WINDS, WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AT THE                   
SURFACE AND ZERO DEGREE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME            
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER NICE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH            
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND FAIR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE               
SUN NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THERE ARE SOME TIMING               
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODELS WITH THIS FRONT. THE ETA IS            
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY THE FASTEST MODEL THIS TIME, WITH THE GFS AND              
NGM BOTH ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. SINCE THE MODEL TREND IS TOWARD A                
SLOWER SOLUTION, WILL FAVOR THE GFS TIMING. HOWEVER, BELIEVE GFS IS             
OVERDOING THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH A FRONT THAT SHOULD BE GETTING             
SHALLOWER AND WEAKER AS IT MOVES E. MAV POPS THEREFORE LOOK TOO HIGH            
FOR THIS SYSTEM. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MOS WHICH WILL RESULT IN POPS            
RANGING FROM 50 NW TO 20 SE. WILL MAINTAIN A MON EVENING POP ONLY               
FOR OUR SE ZONES. TUE LOOKS DRY AND COOLER.                                     
.MARINE...NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS ON THE WATERS BEFORE FRONTAL               
PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM                   
APPROACHES, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTION STAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT,            
WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE CAUTION RANGE LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING, BUT             
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT.           
.FIRE WX...RH HAS IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO NEAR 35 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS            
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SUFFICIENT                 
DURATIONS FOR A WARNING. NO CONCERNS FOR SUN OR MON.                            
.EXTENDED...WED THROUGH SAT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z GFS. THE                
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID RANGE PERIODS.                
THIS FAST FLOW PREVENTS THE COLD FRONT FROM GETTING TOO FAR DOWN THE            
FL PENINSULA. IN FACT, BY WED MORNING, THE GFS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY               
RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WAVE OF LOW             
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER TX AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF              
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE            
LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS, REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z THU. THE               
TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON               
THU. HOWEVER, LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR, IT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER                 
CENTRAL FL. INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS SHOWS AN ELY WAVE APPROACHING FL             
ON SAT. CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE AS FOLLOWS. INSERTED A             
LOW POP FOR WED. MAINTAINED SCT POPS FOR THU, BUT INCREASED COVERAGE            
OF THUNDERSTORMS. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS               
SYSTEM. FRI POPS WERE LOWERED ABOUT 10 PERCENT. WILL KEEP SAT DRY               
FOR NOW, BUT THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON ELY WAVE.                    
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 48 78 55 71 / 00 05 10 40                                                   
PFN 58 77 59 68 / 00 05 20 40                                                   
DHN 55 75 57 62 / 00 05 30 50                                                   
ABY 49 77 57 65 / 00 05 20 40                                                   
VLD 50 79 56 72 / 00 05 10 30                                                   
CTY 51 80 55 75 / 00 05 05 20                                                   
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
18-WOOL                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1115 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2003                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR WARMER HIGHS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON                 
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NW BY GALESBURG...TO THE UPPER 60S TO            
NEAR 70 FROM I-70 SOUTH. WARM FRONT HAS JUST NUDGED NW OF GALESBURG             
SO MUCH OF ILX CWFA IS NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WARM FRONT                   
EXTENDS SW TO A 1007 MB LOW JUST WEST OF JOPLIN MO. BROKEN TO                   
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-72...WHILE STILL FILTERED              
SUNSHINE THROUGH CIRRUS FROM MATTOON/CHARLESTON SE. 11 AM TEMPS                 
RANGE FROM 46 FAR NW AT GALESBURG TO 67 FAR SE AT LAWRENCEVILLE WITH            
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. RUC AND MESOETA KEEP IT DRY TODAY AND                 
DEVELOP LIGHT QPF FROM THE IL RIVER WEST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE                
DEEPENS AND MOVES NE FROM NORTH TX TOWARD THE QUAD CITIES BY                    
12Z/SUN. MILD CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH STRONG             
SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM.                                      
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS ONGOING              
WX SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING              
BACK TO THE NORTH AND AS OF 08Z IS BETWEEN ILX AND PIA.                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF ETA/GFS. FRONT               
WILL CONTINUE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE NORTH TODAY...SO COULD SEE A WIDE            
VARITATION IN TEMPERATURES OVER CWA AGAIN WITH UPPER 50S NORTH TO               
UPPER 60S IN THE SE. MAIN PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE GULF FINALLY OPENS UP             
AND SPREADS TO THE NORTH...BUT WITH BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE NORTH OF             
CWA...WILL EXPECT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. CU DEVELOPMENT NOT                
EXPECTED TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MAIN SYSTEM STILL TO OUR WEST            
AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY ...WILL DROP MENTION              
OF ANY PCPN FOR TODAY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR                
PCPN WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHEN FRONT              
MOVES THROUGH. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORM                
AREA FOR TONIGHT...THEN HAS PUT EASTERN HALF OF CWA...MAINLY ALONG              
AND EAST OF I-55 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW. THEREFORE...HAVE                
ADDED MENTION OF TRWS TO WESTERN HALF OF CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT                     
TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO 50+ KTS...LAPSE RATES                  
INCREASE AND FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO REGION. THINGS              
KICK INTO HIGH GEAR ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH.               
ADJUSTED TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW MORNING HIGH TEMPS...THEN FALLING FROM              
THERE.                                                                          
ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL SEE PCPN CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN AND            
SNOW...WHICH CURRENT GRIDS HANDLE WELL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL            
BE OUR COLDEST DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FLURRIES AND                
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.                                                        
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                      
FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END BY MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME                  
CLEARING AS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF REGION. CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL                   
RECOVER QUICKLY AS WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH...ALLOWING TEMPS              
TO MODERATE BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX            
IN THE NORTH AS TEMPS TO ONLY REACH HIGHS NEAR 40 IN THIS AREA. THIS            
SYSTEM IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND EXITS REGION RATHER              
RAPIDLY. SHOULD SEE DRY AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR THANKSGIVING AND               
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BYRD                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1025 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2003                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AT 17Z RADAR MOSAIC CLEARLY SHOWED SNOWFALL BEING CONFINED TO                   
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. RUC/ETA 3 HOUR                 
SNOWFALL PICKING UP ON THIS AND SHORT RANGE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z                
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION COULD BE A BIT SLOWER                  
REACHING OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. ACCORDINGLY...I PUSHED BACK THE                 
TIMING TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWERED THE POPS A BIT.                       
OTHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.                     
CURRENTLY LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH NONE OF THE                  
MODELS PICKING UP ON THE 2500-3500 CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST             
FSL DEVELOPMENTAL RUC PICKING UP ON IT A BIT LATELY BUT ALSO                    
ADVERTISES A DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHICH                 
COULD GENERATE SOME SUN AND RAISE TEMPERATURES MORE THAN WHAT I HAVE            
ADJUSTED FOR. GIVEN THE INABILITY TO PICK UP ON THE STRATUS DECK                
HEADING THIS WAY I UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS WITH THE              
RUC WHICH IS HANDLING THESE PARAMETERS BEST.                                    
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
422 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2003                                                      
...CORRECTED DATE OF FREEZE WARNING IN FIRST SENTENCE...                        
WE HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT             
AND EARLY MONDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THE             
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND OTHER                    
SYNOPTIC MODELS...SIMILAR TO THE RUC40. THE SURFACE PATTERN TO THE              
WEST IS VERY COMPLEX...WITH ONE STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS                
OKLAHOMA AND THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY             
SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO...AND A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT RACING EAST                 
ACROSS THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW MEXICO.  THE ARCTIC FRONT                
WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER BECAUSE OF THE MASS OF THE COLDEST                    
AIR...AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN 08Z               
AND 09Z...AND INTO THE DFW AND WACO AREAS ABOUT 12Z (ACTUALLY A BIT             
AFTER 12Z AT WACO AND TEMPLE)...AND INTO THE EASTERN MOST ZONES BY              
15Z.  A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN WILL            
FALL.                                                                           
THERE WILL BE A QUICK WARM UP TUESDAY...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AGAIN             
IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  AFTER A COOLER                  
PERIOD...THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY                
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.                                                 
FCSTID =   26                                                                   
DFW   50  57  27  55 /  10   0   0   0                                          
ACT   63  63  29  55 /   0   0   0   0                                          
PRX   54  58  28  50 /  20  20   0   0                                          
DTO   46  49  26  50 /  10   0   0   0                                          
TKI   50  52  26  51 /  10   0   0   0                                          
DAL   54  60  28  56 /  10   0   0   0                                          
TRL   55  57  29  54 /  20  20   0   0                                          
CRS   58  62  28  55 /  20  20   0   0                                          
TPL   62  63  27  55 /   0   0   0   0                                          
.FWD...                                                                         
TX...FREEZE WARNING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES TXZ091>095...                    
TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ156>162...               
TXZ174>175.                                                                     
WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ZONES TXZ091>095...                    
TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ156>162...               
TXZ174>175.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
334 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2003                                                      
WE HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT             
AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THE            
FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND OTHER                    
SYNOPTIC MODELS...SIMILAR TO THE RUC40. THE SURFACE PATTERN TO THE              
WEST IS VERY COMPLEX...WITH ONE STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS                
OKLAHOMA AND THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY             
SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO...AND A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT RACING EAST                 
ACROSS THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW MEXICO.  THE ARCTIC FRONT                
WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER BECAUSE OF THE MASS OF THE COLDEST                    
AIR...AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN 08Z               
AND 09Z...AND INTO THE DFW AND WACO AREAS ABOUT 12Z (ACTUALLY A BIT             
AFTER 12Z AT WACO AND TEMPLE)...AND INTO THE EASTERN MOST ZONES BY              
15Z.  A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST...BUT NOT MUCH RAIN WILL            
FALL.                                                                           
THERE WILL BE A QUICK WARM UP TUESDAY...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AGAIN             
IN THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  AFTER A COOLER                  
PERIOD...THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY                
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.                                                 
FCSTID =   26                                                                   
DFW   50  57  27  55 /  10   0   0   0                                          
ACT   63  63  29  55 /   0   0   0   0                                          
PRX   54  58  28  50 /  20  20   0   0                                          
DTO   46  49  26  50 /  10   0   0   0                                          
TKI   50  52  26  51 /  10   0   0   0                                          
DAL   54  60  28  56 /  10   0   0   0                                          
TRL   55  57  29  54 /  20  20   0   0                                          
CRS   58  62  28  55 /  20  20   0   0                                          
TPL   62  63  27  55 /   0   0   0   0                                          
.FWD...                                                                         
TX...FREEZE WARNING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES TXZ091>095...                    
TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ156>162...               
TXZ174>175.                                                                     
WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ZONES TXZ091>095...                    
TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ156>162...               
TXZ174>175.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx