AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
952 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001                                                      
CURRENTLY...MSAS ANALYSES SHOWING AREA OF HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE              
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. NEAR            
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED. MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED STRONG                   
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 800 MB WITH SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW.             
PW WAS UP TO 1.37.                                                              
FORECAST...CLOUDS ALREADING BEGINNING TO BREAK...AS HEATING CONTINUES...        
AND EXPECT A PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK GRADIENT...SEABREEZES           
WILL FORM ALONG BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC AND CONVERGE INLAND NEAR I-75            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON (AS PER MESO-ETA MODEL). MODELS ALSO INDICATE               
VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC IS MUCH STRONGER           
WITH THIS FEATURE...WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS MUCH WEAKER. HAVE OPTED            
FOR THE WEAKER SOLUTION AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF POPS. IN OTHER            
WORDS...PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS GOOD.                                               
MARINE...CURRENT OBS SHOWING 3 FOOT SWELL AT GRAYS REEF AND 4 FEET              
AT SABSOON TOWER. 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL SHOWING 6 FOOT SWELLS.            
EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON SO PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS GOOD.        
.JAX...                                                                         
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...NONE.                                                                     
EIGHT                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
900 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2001                                                      
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ALONG A LINE AT 830 PM            
FROM MENA TO DEQUEEN ARKANSAS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS TO NEAR TERRELL                
TEXAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE AT THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE LINE AND            
WILL BE MOVING INTO WOOD COUNTY SHORTLY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE                
DAMAGING WIND BUT BELIEVE STORMS WILL DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT. WILL                
CLEAN UP SKY CONDITION WORDING. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN THREAT                  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE OF SEVERE WEST AND NORTHWEST            
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. RUC INDICATES LIFTED INDEX VALUES               
FROM -4 TO -7 WITH CAPES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG FOR THE NEXT FEW                  
HOURS.  09                                                                      
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1010 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001                                                     
00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WELL TO             
N ACRS CNTRL CAN. BUT SEPARATE STREAM NOTED ACRS CONUS WITH TROF OVR            
THE CNTRL STATES. TWO OUT-OF-PHASE SHRTWVS APPEAR TO BE MOVG THRU               
THIS TROF...SUPPORTING A DEEPENING 1005MB LO PRES OVR NE MO AT 00Z.             
WHOLE TROF APPEARS TO BE DVLPG A NEGATIVE TILT AS SECOND SHRTWV                 
DIGGING INTO BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROF AND AXIS OF HIER UPR LVL WNDS            
SHIFT TO E SIDE OF TROF. SFC OBS/88D COMPOSITE SHOW RA AHD OF LO                
MOVG INTO SRN WI AT 01Z. A SFC HI PRES RDG IN CONFLUENT ZN BTWN TWO             
BRANCES OF UPR FLOW STRETCHES FM HI CENTER IN QUEBEC INTO SW                    
ONTARIO. 00Z APX/GRB SDNGS SHOW HI RH BLO ABOUT H7...WITH DRIER                 
AIR/INVRN ABV THIS MSTR. SFC DWPTS WELL INTO THE 50S ACRS CWA AND               
REST OF GREAT LKS UNDER CLDY SKIES N OF TROF TO THE W. TEMPS MAINLY             
55 TO 60. ISOLD -SHRA THAT DVLPD THIS AFTN HAVE COMPLETELY DSPTD                
WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.                                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AHD OF LO PRES TO THE            
S AND MIN TEMPS.                                                                
18Z AVN AND 00Z RUC APPEAR TO HAVE VERY GOOD HANDLE ON PLACEMENT AND            
INTENSITY OF SFC LO AND MOVE THIS SYS TO NR CHI BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH            
AXIS OF HIEST H3 WNDS REMAIN WELL TO S...BOTH MODELS INDICATE H4-2              
DVGC INCRSG AFTR 09Z OVR ERN CWA AS FIRST SHRTWV ROTATING ARND TROF             
CONTS N AHD OF MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPR SYS. H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC              
LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH LGT LLVL WNDS LIMITING ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT                
SINCE LLVLS ALREADY MOIST...THINK INCRSG UPR DYNAMICS WL MOISTEN                
PROHIBITIVELY DRY HIER LVL LYRS APRNT ON 00Z SDNGS ENUF TO INCRS THE            
CHC OF RA ACRS THE SE. HAVE INCRSD POPS TO LIKELY OVR MNM COUNTY AND            
WENT CHCY FOR ESC-ISQ LATE.                                                     
UPSTREAM MIN TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S TUE MRNG. SINCE SKIES WL REMAIN              
CLDY AND DWPTS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S...BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS A FEW                
DEGREES ALL ZNS WITH LTL DIURNAL FALL OFF ON TEMP UNDER THE CLDS AND            
WITH NO DRY ADVCTN.                                                             
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LATER PDS:                                               
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT              
OVERSPREADS THE CWA. SIMILAR TO FORECAST TRACKS FOR THE SYSTEM...AVN            
IS QUICKER AT BRINGING LIFT AND PRECIP INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. 12Z                 
CANADIAN APPEARS THE FASTEST STILL. WITH CONSISTENCY OF THE AVN AND             
THE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE ETA WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER                    
SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...MAINLY             
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA...                
WORDED CHANCE WEST AND SCATTERED CENTRAL WHERE PRECIP IS MORE                   
LIKELY. SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER AND INTO LAKE HURON                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS             
WELL...A GREATER CHANCE THAN DURING THE DAY WITH GREATER MOISTURE               
NEARBY. WINDS PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON              
INTO THE NIGHT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA. WEAK                       
RIDGING/DRYING WORKS ACROSS THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                    
THURSDAY. WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL            
LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST WITH NO TIMING...ALTHOUGH BETTER              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE EVENING.                                         
AS SW FLOW SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NE OF THE GRTLKS THURS NGT...                   
MRF/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN ALL SIMILAR IN SLIDING A SECONDARY CDFNT               
EAST ACROSS UPR MI ON FRI.  ECMWF DEEPENS LOW MOVG AWAY FM GRTLKS               
SIGNIFICANTLY BY 12Z FRI WHILE MRF WEAKEST AND UKMET/CANADIAN A                 
COMPROMISE.  UPR RIDGING FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF LOW FRI NGT/SAT                 
AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS SAT                  
NGT/SUN.  MRF HINTING AT THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON TO BE                
DRAWN DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GRTLKS AS DEEP UPR LVL TROF IS              
CARVED OUT OVR THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE                  
PLAINS.                                                                         
THANKS FOR COORD WITH APX.                                                      
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1123 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001                                                     
500 SHORTWAVE EXITING LOWER MICHIGAN WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS                 
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS INDICATED BY PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND              
CONVECTION ON WATER VAPOR OVER MN/IA/MO/OK. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL                 
CONTINUE TO HEAD EAST TODAY AND BRING A VORT LOBE INTO WISCONSIN BY             
THIS EVENING. THIS VORT LOBE WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE               
U.P. LATE TONIGHT AND 500 TROUGH BEGINS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED             
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH             
WOULD SLOW DOWN PROGRESS EASTWARD SOME. 00Z ETA SHOWING WEAK                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY ON I295K SURFACE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND              
THIS LIFT STRENGTH. 06Z MESOETA ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH                
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TODAY. 13Z RUC SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON             
I295 SFC OVER CENTRAL U.P. LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON                
WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT GETTING STRONGER WITH TIME. I295 SFC AROUND            
850-800 MB ACROSS U.P. KMQT RADAR THOUGH SHOWED PCPN HAS DRIED UP               
FOR THE MOST PART. WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE                     
AREA...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES AND WILL              
WORD FORECAST AS FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL             
BE STUBBORN TO LEAVE WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND             
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. ALSO WITH CLOUDS                 
AROUND...WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING. BASICALLY...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD            
POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOKED                
GOOD.                                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
MICHELS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1038 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001                                                     
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN            
OHIO WITH A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                
MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN             
GREAT LAKES REGION. DNVA FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS                  
SCOURED OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.             
THE LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC SOLUTIONS BRING THIS SHORT WAVE RIDGE               
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP DEEP LAYER MOISTURE            
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA UNTIL THIS EVENING. BASED ON               
THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED            
FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. HOWEVER...LATEST IR              
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A GENERAL WARMING TREND IN CLOUD TOPS UPSTREAM.              
SINCE ETA CU SCHEME IS ONLY SUGGESTIVE OF SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON...I             
WILL GO PARTLY SUNNY IN THE FORECAST...THINKING THAT THE HIGHER                 
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING.                       
BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS AND MESO-ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS...AFTERNOON                 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S STILL LOOK REASONABLE.                                   
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
CONSIDINE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
940 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2001                                                      
UPDATED ZONES TO TAKE OUT POPS FROM SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. ALSO REDUCED            
POPS IN REMAINDER OF ZONES AND USED MAINLY "AFTER MIDNIGHT WORDING".            
LATEST MESO ETA AND RUC MODELS HOLD BACK THE PRECIPITATION TO LATER             
TONIGHT. PREVIOUS RUNS OF MESO ETA AND RUC SHOWED WIDESPREAD                    
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA             
BY NOW, BUT THAT PROVED TO BE TO QUICK. NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY              
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
.JAN...                                                                         
.MS...NONE                                                                      
.LA...NONE                                                                      
.AR...NONE.                                                                     
15                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1030 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2001                                                     
GOING FCST PCKG HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND...WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS                
NEEDED. TEMPS BUMPED DOWN JUST A HAIR...AS PERSISTENCE WITH Y'DAYS              
HIGHS AND EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK TO KEEP THINGS COOL TDY. WINDS WERE            
FINE...AND ONLY TWEAK TO POPS WERE TO INTRODUCE 20 POP KMBG                     
AREA...AND MOVE REST OF CWA TO ISOLD POP.                                       
MORNING UA/ACARS ANALYSIS SHOWS MDLS HANDLING SITN A LITTLE BETTER              
THAN Y'DAY. NMRS SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS EVIDENT IN W/V PICS...WITH            
MAIN PLAYER FOR MY CWA STILL SPINNING IN MT. SHRA/-TSRA IN WRN SD               
ASSCD WITH THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY E. ONCE                   
AGAIN...JET ENERGY WAY TO SOUTH...WITH ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL                    
INSTABILITY KEEPING SHRA GOING. WIND FIELDS ARE NEAR NIL PER 12Z                
KABR SOUNDING. SO SHRA WILL BE ISOLD/SCT AND MAINLY LIGHT AS THIS               
FEATURE MOVES ACROSS CWA PER 12Z RUC LAYER VORTICITY FIELDS. XPCT               
LOW CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH THRU DAY WITH ONLY BREAKS WAY OUT WEST.                
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.                                                            
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
BINAU                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
845 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2001                                                      
CURRENT FORECAST FINE AND NO UPDATES NEEDED.                                    
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN              
MO TO EASTERN OK. 00Z DATA SHOWS H5 TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL               
PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWN BY 88D NQA NEAR THE TN RIVER              
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPPER SHORT WAVE. SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE             
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MAIN             
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL AR INTO WESTERN AR. THINK                 
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO OUR CWFA DURING             
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. LATEST RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS               
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.                          
FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK OK WITH SOUTH WINDS PUSHING DEWPOINTS            
IN THE 60S AND 70S INTO OUR AREA.                                               
.MEG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
150 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                      
4Z MSAS AND RUC40 DATA SHOWING DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WRN IL           
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MN/IA. MOST OF THE                    
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER IL NEAR THE LOW CENTER...WITH                  
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE 850MB THETA-E RIDGE/30-40KT SW FLOW FROM             
WRN IN BACK INTO NERN TX. PRESSURE FALLS INDICATING SFC LOW WILL MOVE           
INTO NRN IL BY DAYBREAK. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING ADDITIONAL               
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NRN AR/SRN MO MOVING NORTHEAST...AND 00Z             
RUC40 DATA INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ALONG 850MB THETA-E                
AXIS INTO THE CWA TOWARDS DAYBREAK.                                             
OVERALL THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z ETA/AVN ARE SMALL FOR THE               
INITIALIZATIONS AND THE FIRST 6 HOURS. BOTH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON               
THE STRUCTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER MN...AND THE 6 HOUR QPF                
FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR...HANDLING THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER                 
AR/MO FINE. THE AVN ONCE AGAIN SEEMS TO HAVE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK              
SITUATION OVER MI TODAY...WHICH THROUGH DIABATIC EFFECTS DEEPENS THE            
MID-LEVEL WAVE 20DM MORE THAN THE ETA. THEREFORE I WILL LEAN TOWARDS            
THE ETA...BUT THE OVERALL SOLUTIONS AFFECTING THE CWA ARE SIMILAR.              
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ETA/AVN DATA...I THINK TODAY WILL             
BE WET ACROSS THE CWA. ETA SHOWING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE...300MB                  
DIVERGENCE AXIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND 850-500MB                
RH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 80% MOVING THROUGH THE CWA BY 18Z AHEAD OF               
MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER WI. AFTER 18Z...THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE AND               
DYNAMICS MOVES EAST...HOWEVER WITH 850-500MB RH VALUES ABOVE 65% AND            
MULI'S AT OR BELOW -2C...I THINK THAT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE           
AFTERNOON HOURS. I WILL GO WITH 70-80% POPS TODAY...UNDER MOSTLY                
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE UPPER 70S AS WE MAY SEE            
SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE MAIN AXIS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP MOVES THROUGH BY             
EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                                
TONIGHT...THE BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS MIGRATE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST             
AS MID-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER NRN MI. ETA SHOWING ANOTHER WAVE WITH             
ASSOCIATED 300MB DIVERGENCE ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 00-09Z.            
WITH ENOUGH COLUMN MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY (MULI'S<0) THERE               
WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...ENDING FROM WEST             
TO EAST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. I WILL GO WITH 30% POPS            
AREAWIDE...ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES                   
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING...FROM 60 TO 63 IN             
GENERAL.                                                                        
LOWER THETA-E AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY                
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH...SO I WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY              
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY DROP            
TOWARDS THE LOWER 60S...SO SOME CLOUDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE            
DAY. NOTHING OF REAL NOTE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING           
THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SO            
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM BUT I WILL NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES RIGHT              
NOW. LOWS WILL BE AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK.                                    
FRIDAY...BOTH THE ETA AND AVN SHOW ANOTHER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE             
DEEP WRN ONTARIO LOW BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGHER 850-500MB             
RH VALUES INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MAV POP VALUES                  
COMING IN FOR FRIDAY SHOWING 30-40%. THIS IS HARD TO DISCOUNT SO I              
WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD 30% CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY             
SKIES. HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN THURSDAY...CLOSER TO 80.               
INTO THE EXTENDED...SATURDAY SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WAVE             
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHES INTO THE CWA.                   
FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL LEAVE SH/TS IN             
THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...SO GOING             
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SH/TS SEEMS WISE.                               
.SDF...NONE.                                                                    
SMALLCOMB                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
440 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                      
WRN EXTENT OF RAIN SHIELD WITH ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM IS MAIN FOCUS            
FOR TODAY...WITH ATTN THEN TURNING TO NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THU.             
00Z RAOB MAPS SHOW SHRTWV TROUGH OVR CNTRL CONUS WITH WV LOOP INDICATING        
TWO MAIN SHRTWVS OVR QUAD CITIES AREA ON IA/IL BORDER AND SECONDARY             
WAVE OVR WRN KS. ANOTHER SUBTLE SHRTWV NEAR JOPLIN MO ALSO. ON FRONT            
SIDE OF TROUGH...08Z SFC ANALYSIS FINDS MAIN SFC LOW PRES NEAR                  
CHICAGO CHECKING IN AT 1002MB...WHICH IS CONSISTANT WITH 18Z/00Z                
AVN. ETA AND NGM WERE TOO WEAK WITH SFC LOW BY 3-4MB. IR SAT DEPICTS            
COOLING CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY NE OF SFC LOW WITH ANOTHER BAND OF                   
ENHANCEMENT OVR CNTRL WI...WHICH COULD BE BEGINNING OF FORMATION OF             
CCB. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND SFC OBS SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RAIN                
REACHING FM LSE TO MSN TO OSH.                                                  
FOR TODAY...3HR MSAS PRESSURE FALL BULLSEYE POINTS TO SFC LOW EASING            
INTO SRN LK MI BY 12Z THEN INTO WRN LWR MI THIS AFTN. LATEST RUC HAS            
SHOWN THIS TREND ALSO. AS A RESULT MOST CONCENTRATED H85 CONVERGENCE            
REMAINS SE OF UPR MI...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT INTENSITY OF               
RAINFALL OVR ERN ZONES. STILL LOOK FOR PRECIP TO AFFECT ERN 2/3 FA              
AS COMBINATION OF H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/H7 UVM FM CCB SLIDE NE            
ACROSS AREA. WITH MAIN DYNAMIC FORCING FOCUSED SE MOISTURE                      
AVAILABILITY WILL BE A KEY FACTOR. 00Z RAOBS AT GRB AND APX INDICATE            
MOIST PROFILES BLO H7 WITH VRY DRY AIR ABOVE. ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE               
AROUND H6 SHOULD SIGNIFY ONSET OF MORE STEADY RAINFALL...AND AVN/ETA            
SHOWS THIS OCCURRING ONLY AFT 12Z FOR MNM AND THRU 18Z FOR SERN UPR             
MI. CUTOFF TO WRN EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHARP AS VRY DRY              
AIR AT H7 OVR OT THIS MORNING (00Z RAOB H7 DWPT DPRESSION OF 29C AT             
CWPL) IS GRADUALLY WRAPPED INTO WRN UPR MI WITH DEVELOPING NE FLW.              
OVERALL FOR POPS WILL TAPER SHARPLY FM LIKELY SE TO CHANCE                      
CNTRL...WITH ONLY A LGT SHRA/SPRINKLES OVR WRN ZONES AS STILL PLENTY            
OF SUB H7 MOISTURE FOR WEAK DYNAMICS TO ACT UPON.                               
PRIMARY UPR MOTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVR SWRN OT AND NRN LK HURON              
TNGT WITH AREA OF PRIMARY DIFFLUENT FLW AND UPR DIVERGENCE. ETA                 
MODEL IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER SHORT RANGE AND MEDIUM MODELS              
WITH UPR LOW...KEEPING IT CLOSED TIL THU EVENING. EVEN SO...                    
H85-H5/H7-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE LINGER OVR ERN            
ZONES INTO FIRST HALF OF THU (AT LEAST...LONGER WITH ETA)...SO WILL             
CONTINUE SMALL POPS FOR SHRA THERE. OTHERWISE...WILL ONLY CARRY A               
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NCNTRL ZONES FOR TONIGHT. DRY FCST LOOKS               
GOOD ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADDED FOG TONIGHT FOR NCNTRL ZONES AS DEEP                 
NERLY FLW WITH ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH                   
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG               
AND DZ OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS SUBSTANTIAL OROGRAPHIC LIFT FM                 
UPSLOPE DEVELOPS.                                                               
TEMPS BOTH TODAY AND TNGT WILL EXHIBIT VERY LITTLE CHANGE AS CLOUDS             
REMAIN LOCKED INTO FA. FWC/MAV LOOK GOOD TDY BUT TOO COOL TONIGHT SO            
HAVE WENT A SHADE ABOVE BOTH FOR MINS. EXCEPTION IS OVR SWRN ZONES              
WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIR WORKING COMPLETELY TO SFC WHICH            
COULD POKE SOME HOLES IN CLOUDS...LEADING TO COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPS.            
A BRIEF BREAK UNTIL NEXT RAIN CHANCE WHICH ARRIVES THU NIGHT THANKS             
TO PAC NW SHRTWV (CURRENTLY SLICING INTO AB/ID). THIS SHRTWV IS FCST            
TO SLIDE INTO RATHER BROAD TROUGH OVR GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH              
MAIN SHRTWV PASSES WELL TO SOUTH OF UPR MI INTO IA/IL BY FRI                    
MORNING...RIBBON OF H85-H5 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE              
SCRAPE UPR MI TO SOUTH. WL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS SRN ZONES BUT               
WILL REMOVE FM NRN ZONES WITH BETTER SUPPORT TO SOUTH.                          
COORD WITH APX/GRB/DLH...THANKS.                                                
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
400 AM CDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON CLOUD AND LGT PRECIP TDY AND CONVECTION              
THREAT LATE TNGT INTO THU NGT.  WV IMAGERY REVEALS VIGOROUS S/W                 
PUSHING THRU NRN IL...SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST OF ETA PLACEMENT...BUT              
MORE IN LN WITH LATEST RUC AND AVN GUIDANCE.  LATEST RADAR MOSAIC               
SHOWS LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVR CENTRAL/SRN WI...SHOWING LITTLE WWD                
DRIFT...HOWEVER PATCHY -RA HAS EXPANDED A BIT OVER WEST CENTRAL WI              
INTO ERN MN AS WEAKER 5H CIRCULATION PASSES THRU ERN MN.  WL NEED TO            
CONT MENTION OF PATCHY -RA/-DZ OVER MSP/STC AREAS THIS MRNG WITH                
UNCATEGORICAL IN WI.  ETA 300 THETA SFC SHOWS CONDENSATION PRESSURE             
DEFICITS LESS THAN 20MB WITH WK UPGLIDE INTO ERN MN THIS                        
MRNG...DMSHS IN THE AFTN LENDING CREDENCE TO PATCHY -RA/-DZ AFT                 
12Z.  BINOVC HAVE DVLPD IN PARTS OF SRN MN WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4SM             
IN FRM BUT LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING FOG/LOW CLDS FILLING            
IN THE HOLES.  HENCE WL HOLD OFF ON ADVY FOR NOW BUT MENTION PATCHY             
DENSE FOG IN ZONE.  BOTH ETA AND AVN SHOW SHARPER 5H RDG OVR ERN                
DAKOTAS/WRN MN AT 00Z WITH LINGERING CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN EAST.                
CONSIDERING LACK OF STRONG DRY PUNCH AND DEEPER GREAT LAKES                     
SYSTEM...WL CONT WITH CLDS LINGERING OVER ERN AREAS THRU DAY BUT TRY            
TO BRING IN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN WEST.  BEST CHANCE MAY BE IN               
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS NOT AS PRONOUNCED.                 
WL BACK OFF ON PRECIP TNGT...EXCEPT IN FAR WEST AS UPSTREAM S/W                 
TROUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE DUE TO SHARPER FEATURES.              
ETA/AVN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING LEFT EXIT REGION OF 3H JET                
ACRS MN CWA ON THU AND ACRS WI THU NGT.  PWAT INCREASES TO OVR 1.0.             
INSTABILITY HOWEVER REMAINS MINIMAL AS DEEPER MOISTURE BOTTLED UP               
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WARM FRONT AND VICINITY OF SFC LOW PRES. BEST               
THREAT FOR -TSRA WL BE EARLY THU IN WRN AREAS FM WEAKENING DAKOTAS              
CONVECTION AND IN SOUTH DURING THE AFTN ON NRN EDGE OF BETTER                   
BAROCLINICITY.  HENCE WL UP POPS TO LKLY CATEGORY IN WEST AND SOUTH             
ON THU AND INTO ERN MN THU EVE.  DIFFICULT TO MAKE POINTS ON                    
GUIDANCE THIS PD.  WL UPDATE EFP TO ADD PRECIP IN FOR SAT NGT AND               
SUN AS SOME CONSISTENCY TO S/W TROUGH PUSHING THRU OVR WEEKEND.                 
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
KAVINSKY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
230 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                      
THRU FRI...A SERIES OF TRANSIENT SHORT WAVELENGTH TROFS WILL MOVE               
THRU THE PAC NW...ONE THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER FRI MORNING.                     
TODAY...IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING EWD ALONG WA/BC                
BORDER THIS MORNING...WITH DRY SLOT AND DARKENING PER VAPOR LOOP                
MAKING ITS WAY THRU ERN WA. AVN AND RUC HANDLING PLACEMENT OF MID               
TROP VORT CENTER...AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR TIMING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES           
RAPIDLY THRU ERN WA/N ID TODAY. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN WITHIN              
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY SLOT TODAY FOR PTLY-SUNNY SKIES. SOME Ac             
MAY AFFECT THE BC/WA BORDER CLOSER TO VORT MAX AND FORCING FOR                  
ASCENT. INITIAL CONCERN IS WIND THIS MORNING...WITH CROSS-CASCADE               
PRESSURE GRADS INCREASING AND QG/OMEGA SHOWING A WHOLE LOT OF                   
SUBSIDENCE (AS DOES WATER VAPOR LOOP). THIS WILL BE THE ISSUE THIS              
MORNING...HOWEVER PRESSURE GRADS/850 WINDS WEAKEN DURING THE DAY.               
WITH 12Z PDX-FCA GRADIENT OF 9 MB AND 850 NW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS...MAY           
KEEP MENTION OF BREEZY THIS MORNING E SLOPES/WATERVILLE PLATEAU. LOW            
LEVEL CAA WILL NOT ONLY HELP TO STABILIZE TROP BUT ALSO COOL TEMPS VS           
TUE.                                                                            
TONIGHT/THURS...LOW AMP RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE WITH WEAK SFC PRESSURE             
GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW DECENT COOING POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BACKED LOW               
LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK WAA BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS NEXT WAVE MOVES INSIDE              
140W BY 12Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TREND THURS...AS MUCH OF CWA           
WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING TROF.                         
THURS NIGHT/FRI...FILLING SHORT WAVE TROF TO MOVE ACROSS SRN BC...AS            
TAIL END OF FRONTAL BAND MOVES THRU N CASCADES BY 12Z. DEEP LG-SCALE            
ASCENT REMAINS N INTO BC IN THE MORNING...THEN SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES             
MUCH OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES E. BEST CHANCE               
PRECIP WILL BE N CREST CASCADES AND OKANOGAN VLY/NE WA MTNS IN THE              
MORNING. HOWEVER WL NOT INTRODUCE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO LACK OF                    
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND SPEED OF WAVE.                                          
SAT-TUE...NO CHANGES. LONGWAVE PATTERN KEEPS TROF PAST 140W AND RIDGE           
OVER ROCKIES. SAT RIDGE AND DRY WX WILL GIVE WAY TO APPROACHING TROF            
SUN FOR SLT-CHC PRECIP. THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU MON...AND BY TUE HTS            
BUILD ONCE MORE FOR DRY WX.                                                     
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 071/043/074/049/074 00000                                                   
COE 071/041/074/045/074 00000                                                   
PUW 071/040/074/044/075 00000                                                   
LWS 077/046/082/053/081 00000                                                   
CQV 079/040/082/045/081 -000-                                                   
SPT 071/040/073/043/074 -000-                                                   
WWP 070/038/072/041/074 00000                                                   
EAT 075/050/077/055/077 00000                                                   
MWH 077/044/079/049/078 00000                                                   
.OTX...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
330 AM CDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON APPROACHING DRY SLOT AFFECTING THE END OF RAIN                
LATER TODAY AND NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY.                                  
IN THE SHORT TERM...AVN/RUC PROGS BETTER THAN ETA/NGM WITH CURRENT              
SURFACE LOW STRENGTH AND LOCATION. CURRENT 3 HOURLY RISE/FALL                   
PRESSURE COUPLET POINTS TO LOW MOVING OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND               
INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH TIME..WITH ALL PROGS IN CLOSE                  
AGREEMENT. RUC SFC PROG DEEPENS LOW THE MOST..TO 999 MB BY 18Z AS               
WELL AS RETARDING ITS MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS            
ALLOW FOR ENDING OF PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE           
OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE/500 MILLIBAR RUC                 
COMBINATION LOOP SHOWING DRY SLOT PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL                
ILLINOIS. SOME CONCERN THAT THIS COULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO CWA AND CUT            
OFF PRECIPITATION EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...OR RESULT IN SCATTERED                
PRECIPITATION. BUT CURRENT TREND OF RADAR LOOPS AND CONSISTENT PROG             
FORECAST OF LOW TRACK SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION PIVOTING...THEN            
WRAPPING AROUND CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY DISRUPTION. WILL CONTINUE TO             
WATCH THIS TREND WITH EYE TO ADJUSTING DESCRIPTIVE WORDING OF RAIN IN           
ZONES AT LAST MINUTE.                                                           
IN THE FAR TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT TO OCCUR              
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. PROGS BRING SLUG OF ENERGY IN NORTHWEST             
FLOW ACROSS CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WARM AIR             
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. BUT REFLECTION OF ENERGY AT THE SURFACE            
IS VAGUE. SO WILL KEEP CHANCY SHOWERS IN FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT AND            
ALLOW LATER MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE TIMING AND EXTENT OF                          
PRECIPITATION.                                                                  
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE                   
EXPECTED...AND LOOK TO BE IN BALL PARK FOR LATER PERIODS.                       
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL                                            
1000 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                     
CURRENTLY...                                                                    
SIGNIFICANT EARLY MORNING SHOWER/TSTM CLUSTERS THAT WERE OVER                   
ATLANTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS AND ALSO AFFECTING PARTS OF MID AND LOWER            
KEYS...HAVE MOVED FARTHER SOUTH THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...            
A NEW SMALLER AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS HAS FORMED OVER A SMALL PART OF             
THE UPPER KEYS EXTENDING INTO FLORIDA BAY (THIS MAY BE ON AN OUTFLOW            
FROM THE EARLIER STORMS). SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS AND MID CLOUD                  
DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION MOSTLY BLOWLY SE AWAY FROM THE KEYS...                   
ALTHOUGH THE FLORIDA BAY TSTMS MAY SOON SEND CIRRUS OVER THE UPPER              
KEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT HAVING                
MOVED SE OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND PAST THE LOWER KEYS AS OF 8            
AM. HOWEVER...KEY WEST PRECIPITABLE WATER AS OF SOUNDING TIME WAS               
ONLY DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 1.97 INCHES...AND THIS SEEMS TO BE FOR LEVELS             
AROUND 500 MB. FARTHER NORTH THE AIR IS DRIER...WITH TAMPA SOUNDING             
SHOWING DRY AIR 800 MB AND UP. KEY WEST SOUNDING WINDS AT 700-500 MB            
HAD SHIFTED TO DUE NORTH SINCE 00Z LAST EVENING WHEN THEY WERE WSW.             
THIS INDICATES THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS RATHER SHARP AND HAD                
MOVED TO KEY WEST BY 12Z...WHICH NONE OF THE MODELS WAS INDICATING.             
ALL MODELS HAD THE TROUGH AXIS 700-500 MB STILL NW OF THE KEYS.                 
WINDS ARE RUNNING E OR ENE CLOSE TO 10 KT AT C-MAN SITES.                       
THIS AFTERNOON...                                                               
THE DRY AIR ALOFT HAS GIVEN A LOT OF SUN TO THE LOWER KEYS THIS                 
MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MID AND UPPER KEYS.                
WHILE MODELS WERE SLOW TO PUSH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PAST THE AREA...            
THEY DO SHOW DRYING ALOFT HAVING WORKED SE OVER THE KEYS BY END OF              
TODAY. BUT...IF LATEST 06Z MESOETA IS CORRECT...MOST DRYING WILL BE             
AT AND ABOVE 700 MB WITH RH VALUES REMAINING HIGH AT LEVELS BELOW               
700 MB. EARLIER ETA AND CURRENT MESOETA AND RUC HINT AT SURFACE                 
WINDS ENE FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. SO...CONVECTION MAY FLARE WITH            
TCU/CB LINES NEAR THE KEYS AS WELL AS OVER MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON.             
DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD ENHANCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MAINLAND                  
CONVECTION AS WELL. SO, CURRENT 50 PCT POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED BUT              
MAY BE MAINLY FROM AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. 1030 AM COASTAL WATERS                   
FORECAST CONTAINS NO CHANGES WITH WIND TRENDS AS EXPECTED.                      
.EYW...NONE.                                                                    
CLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
925 AM CDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                      
LIGHT RAIN HAS PUSHED WESTWARD SOME INTO CENTRAL MN AND PRECIP                  
TRENDS THEN MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. 12Z RUC 300 K ISENTROPIC SURFACE             
SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED THIS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER CENTRAL             
INTO SOUTHERN MN. LITTLE OR NO ISENTROPIC OMEGA GOING INTO AFTERNOON            
SO EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND. STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRYING TREND IN               
WESTERN MN ASSUMING FOG DISSIPATES. AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY OK.               
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
RICHARDSON                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
950 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                      
SURFACE LOW NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST INTO           
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING. BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS                  
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MOVING MORE NORTH THAN EAST THIS MORNING. 06Z            
ETA AND 12Z RUC 40 SUGGESTING THIS GENERAL NORTHERLY MOVEMENT WILL              
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A DELAYED ONSET FOR                 
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK               
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL HAVE A HARD             
TIME HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY FALL INTO DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS. COULD            
STILL SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WET THE GROUND ALONG THE SOUTHERN             
TIER...BUT MAIN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL NOT AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL           
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.                                       
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR EASTERN SECTIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID                    
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES...EVEN              
WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S FOR WESTERN               
SECTIONS AND MAY APPROACH 80 DEGREES FOR EASTERN SECTIONS.                      
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC                                         
1015 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                     
...WILL UPDATE ZONE FCST...AS SHOWERS ARE MOVING TOO CLOSE TO THE               
CAPE FEAR COAST TO NOT MENTION SHOWERS IN FCST. WILL GO CHC POPS.               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AT 20 NM EDGE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE              
FEAR N...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH. RUC MODEL SHOWS A WEAK              
500 MB WAVE OVER WRN SC THIS MORNING...APPARENT IN CLOUD ELEMENTS ON            
WV SATPIX...WILL MOVE OFF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP THE               
TROUGH TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY INTO MAYBE A WEAK CLOSED LOW...1017 MB                
ABOUT 70 MILES E OF GEORGETOWN...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT                 
CONTINUES MOVING OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AND SFC LOW WEAKENS...BUT THE             
RUC PAINTS A LITTLE RAIN ON THE SE NC COAST BY LATE TODAY. META                 
DOESN'T GO FOR RAIN. SINCE JUST ABOUT ALL OF THIS IS OFF THE                    
COAST...CURRENT PARTLY SUNNY ZONE FORECAST LOOKS OK WITH NO MENTION             
OF RAIN TODAY. WIND FORECAST LOOKS OK...SO NO ZONE FCST UPDATE.                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING MISSISSIPPI IS SPREADING CI CLDS                 
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAYS PTLY SUNNY. APPROACHING TROUGH CAUSES                
BETTER LIFT ON THU...AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE MORE THU DAYTIME                  
SHOWER EVENT IN THIS AREA.                                                      
CWF: LIGHT WINDS...WILL ADJUST DIRECTION FOR TROUGH IN THE AREA AND             
ADD SHOWERS.                                                                    
FCSTID = 19                                                                     
ILM   82  64  83  67 /  10  20  30  30                                          
LBT   84  60  84  63 /   0  10  40  40                                          
FLO   85  62  85  64 /   0  10  40  40                                          
MYR   79  64  81  68 /  10  20  30  30                                          
.ILM...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MATHESON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC                                         
955 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                      
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AT 20 NM EDGE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE              
FEAR N...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH. RUC MODEL SHOWS A WEAK              
500 MB WAVE OVER WRN SC THIS MORNING...APPARENT IN CLOUD ELEMENTS ON            
WV SATPIX...WILL MOVE OFF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP THE               
TROUGH TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY INTO MAYBE A WEAK CLOSED LOW...1017 MB                
ABOUT 70 MILES E OF GEORGETOWN...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT                 
CONTINUES MOVING OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AND SFC LOW WEAKENS...BUT THE             
RUC PAINTS A LITTLE RAIN ON THE SE NC COAST BY LATE TODAY. META                 
DOESN'T GO FOR RAIN. SINCE JUST ABOUT ALL OF THIS IS OFF THE                    
COAST...CURRENT PARTLY SUNNY ZONE FORECAST LOOKS OK WITH NO MENTION             
OF RAIN TODAY. WIND FORECAST LOOKS OK...SO NO ZONE FCST UPDATE.                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CROSSING MISSISSIPPI IS SPREADING CI CLDS                 
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAYS PTLY SUNNY. APPROACHING TROUGH CAUSES                
BETTER LIFT ON THU...AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE MORE THU DAYTIME                  
SHOWER EVENT IN THIS AREA.                                                      
CWF: LIGHT WINDS...WILL ADJUST DIRECTION FOR TROUGH IN THE AREA AND             
ADD SHOWERS.                                                                    
FCSTID = 19                                                                     
ILM   82  64  83  67 /  10  20  30  30                                          
LBT   84  60  84  63 /   0  10  40  40                                          
FLO   85  62  85  64 /   0  10  40  40                                          
MYR   79  64  81  68 /  10  20  30  30                                          
.ILM...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MATHESON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1040 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                     
...WILL UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP WORDING...                                         
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT IS HAVING A               
TOUGH TIME ENTERING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE SURFACE LOW IS                    
CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST.                   
SEVERAL PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONES WERE NOTED AS WELL. WATER VAPOR            
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO OCCLUDE AS DRY AIR IS              
WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER.                                         
VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 3-4               
KFT LAYER WITH WEAK WINDS IN THE MIDLEVELS. THIS AGREES WITH THE                
MODEL GUIDANCE.                                                                 
12Z RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WESTERN SITES CLOUDING                
OVER AS HIGH CLOUDS INVADE THE EASTERN AREAS OF MY CWA. THIS AGREES             
WITH THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO NOTED MIDLEVEL FLOW             
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF              
THE NEXT SYSTEM.                                                                
THE ETA/AVN SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THERE IS A HIGH                     
CONFIDENCE LEVEL THAT IT WILL RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OUT OF             
THE TEN MEMBERS...AT LEAST 9 HAD WIDESPREAD QUARTER OF AN INCH                  
AMOUNTS VALID LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                             
EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT            
SURPRISING GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING/OCCLUDING NATURE AT THIS TIME.               
GIVEN EARLY ANALYSIS BELIEVE AS THE WIND FILED AND PRECIPITABLE                 
WATER VALUES INCREASE THIS EVENING...A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE TROUGH            
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER FROM WEST TO              
EAST. AS THE FRONT PASSES DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON                         
HOURS...BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION. PROJECTED            
STRONG AND VEERING WIND FIELDS...FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY               
INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAY BECOME STRONG IN THE EAST TOMORROW                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
WORK ZONES OUT...REAL ZONES ON THE STREETS IN A FEW...                          
.CTP...NONE.                                                                    
ROGOWSKI/GARTNER                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1105 AM MDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                     
LATEST RUC PICKING UP ON MY (AND SPC) EARLIER INKLINGS THAT SOME TRW            
MAY DEVELOP OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE COMBINATION OF SLOW                 
MOISTURE RETURN...PSEUDO DRYLINE/WIND SHIFT LINE ACROSS FAR WESTERN             
KANSAS...AND FULL SUN EXIST. LATEST RUC GENERATES SOME PRECIP WHICH             
BACKS WHAT I WAS THINKING AND STATED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER                   
OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...LATEST ETA WASNT PICKING UP THESE FEATURES TIL               
00Z-03Z TIME FRAME SO THATS WHY IT WASNT MENTIONED IN THE ZONE                  
UPDATE. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH AND ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE REQUIRED.             
OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED WINDS A BIT AND MADE SKY CONDITIONS SUNNY.                 
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
THEDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2001                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE RAIN COVERAGE/POPS INTO                 
FRIDAY.                                                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS DEPCIT CLASSIC COLD SEASON CYCLONE WITH             
VIGOROUS SLIGHTLY NEG TILTED SHRTWV TROF INTO LK MI AND LWR MI WITH             
DRY SLOT WRAPPED INTO WRN LWR MI. BACK EDGE OF WCB PCPN BAND WAS                
JUST INTO ERN UPR MI WHILE LARGE AREA OF CCB RAIN HAD CREPT                     
NORTHWESTWARD TO COVER SE 2/3 OF UPR MI. UPWARD MOTION SUPPORTED BY             
STRONG UPR LVL DIV WITH COUPLING FROM LFQ OF 70 KT H25 JET INTO LWR             
MI AND 80 KT MAX OVER NE ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...999 MB               
LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SRN LK MI WITH MAX 3-HR PRES FALLS OF AROUND 4             
MB OVER NRN LWR MI AND NRN LK MI.                                               
MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT TO 24 HRS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER              
AND MORE WESTWARD PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LO MOST REASONABLE IN LIGHT              
OF MDL TRENDS WITH THE SYSTEM. ETA WOULD ALSO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON             
LLVL EFFECTS FROM THE GRT LAKES. BY 36-60 HRS MORE CONSISTENT AVN               
SOLN WITH NEXT SHRTWV IS BETTER BET. HOWEVER...MDL DIFFERENCES HAVE             
MINIMAL EFFECT ON WX FCST FOR UPR MI.                                           
TONIGHT...CCB PCPN BAND SHOULD CONTINUE ACRS ERN 3/4 OF UPR MI WITH             
DEEP LYR QCONV OVER THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST RELATIVELY SHARP             
CUTOFF IN PCPN ON THE WRN EDGE SHOULD SET UP OVER WRN CWA. DRY SLOT             
ALSO SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. PROXIMITY OF                     
RELATIVELY DEEP LO WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT WL ALSO BRING INCREASING            
NRLY WINDS TO 15 TO 25 MPH.                                                     
THURSDAY...STACKED LO ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS CCB PCPN LINGERS OVER ERN              
HLF OF CWA. LAKE ENHANCED PCPN WITH CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE SFC-900              
LYR (LK-900 MB DLT/T NEAR 10C ALONG SOUTH SHORE) ALONG WITH                     
CONVERGENT CYCLONIC FLOW INTO NORTH CNTRL UPR MI SUGGESTS POPS/QPF              
WELL ABV THAT ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...CAT WORDING WAS               
RETAINED OVER THE EAST WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST.                           
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NEXT SHRTWV AND BATCH OF JET ENERGY                
PLUNGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE SRN GRT LAKES LEAVING UPR MI              
IN BTWN THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND REMNANTS OF THE DEPARTING LO. AVN               
SHOWS ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CWA FOR               
CONTINUED CHANCE OF PCPN EVEN WITH WEAK MID LVL QCONV.                          
EXTENDED...ECMWF/UKMET/MRF ALL DEPICT AMPLIFICATION OF LONG-WAVE                
PATTERN WITH DEEP GLF AK LOW...DOWNSTREAM RDG INTO THE ROCKIES AND              
TROF PROGRESSING INTO THE WRN LAKES TOWARD SUNDAY. WL NOT ALTER DRY             
SAT FCST...DESPITE MINOR QPF DEPICTED BY AVN/MRF WITH LITTLE IN THE             
WAY OF SHRTWV ENERGY OR FORCING BEFORE TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH            
GOOD QCONV LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PROGRESSIVE SOLN ADOPTED IN              
LINE WITH ECMWF AND MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN. 12Z AVN ALSO A BIT QUICKER IN            
MOVING THE MID LVL TROF THROUGH AND BUILDS SFC HI PRES IN ON MONDAY.            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
ISSUED BY TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN, MN                                            
300 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                      
FIRST CONCERN IS SKY CONDITION FOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE                
FIELD EXPECTED TO SCOUR MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS OUT OF THE AREA THIS             
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES...AND            
PRESENCE OF SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE                  
TONIGHT. THIS IS SIMILAR SCENARIO AS TO WHAT TRANSPIRED OVER THE                
EASTERN DAKOTAS LAST NIGHT.                                                     
NEXT CONCERN IS IMPACT ON INCOMING SHORT WAVE. 19Z RUC 300 MB WIND              
ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPRESSIVE JET FROM SOUTHWESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO             
MISSOULA MT. 12Z ETA AND 12Z AVN SIMILAR IN MOVING ASSOCIATED JET               
MAX TO NORTHWESTERN IA BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...AVN KEEPS MOST OF THE              
QPF CLOSE TO THE JET MAX...WHILE THE ETA GENERATES RAINFALL FARTHER             
NORTH. TRENDED TOWARD AVN AND AWAY FROM ETA QPF (SIMILAR TO NGM MOS             
POPS)...IN KEEPING POPS LOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND                   
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF MORE SHORT WAVES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH OUT                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND FOR THE WI PORTION OF THE             
CWA ON SUNDAY.                                                                  
FROM SUNDAY ON...WENT WITH MRF ENSEMBLE POPS FOR PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES. BLENDED MEX AND FMR GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. POSITIVE                    
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WERE USED TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WARMER MEX            
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                                          
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
RJN                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
300 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                      
NO CHANGES TO PVS THINKING. SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL                    
OVERSPREAD WRN PA LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL                
LINGER MOST OF THE DAY THUR. TSTM WILL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ABUT           
WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OVER ERN PARTS OF CWA WHERE TIMING WILL BE BEST.            
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW FRI NIGHT PRODUCING MORE              
SHOWERS.                                                                        
SAT AND SUN LOOK FAIRLY DRY BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE BRINGS MORE SHOWERS             
FOR LATE SUN AND MON. HPC MDM RANGE GRAPHICS SHOWING SFC SYSTEM MVNG            
N ALONG THE SE COAST INTO THE MID ATLC NEXT WED SO INCLUDED CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS FOR ERN CWA.                                                         
....PVS AFD BELOW....                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT IS HAVING A               
TOUGH TIME ENTERING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE SURFACE LOW IS                    
CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST.                   
SEVERAL PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONES WERE NOTED AS WELL. WATER VAPOR            
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO OCCLUDE AS DRY AIR IS              
WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SECOND MORE SOUTHER                     
SHORTWAVE EVIDENT OVER KY/TN.                                                   
12Z RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WESTERN SITES CLOUDING                
OVER AS HIGH CLOUDS INVADE THE EASTERN AREAS OF MY CWA. THIS AGREES             
WITH THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO NOTED MIDLEVEL FLOW             
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF              
THE NEXT SYSTEM.                                                                
THE ETA/AVN SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THERE IS A HIGH                     
CONFIDENCE LEVEL THAT IT WILL RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OUT OF             
THE TEN MEMBERS...AT LEAST 9 HAD WIDESPREAD QUARTER OF AN INCH                  
AMOUNTS VALID LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                             
EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT            
SURPRISING GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING/OCCLUDING NATURE AT THIS TIME.               
GIVEN EARLY ANALYSIS BELIEVE AS THE WIND FILED AND PRECIPITABLE                 
WATER VALUES INCREASE THIS EVENING...A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE TROUGH            
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER FROM WEST TO              
EAST. AS THE FRONT PASSES DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON                         
HOURS...BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION. PROJECTED            
STRONG AND VEERING WIND FIELDS...FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY               
INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAY BECOME STRONG IN THE EAST TOMORROW                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
WORK ZONES OUT.                                                                 
.CTP...NONE.                                                                    
GARTNER/ROGOWSKI                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
230 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2001                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT OR EARLY                  
THURSDAY...AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ON THURSDAY...AND CHANCES OF RAIN                   
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM WITH LARGE CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY                
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT PER THE RUC ANALYSIS AND RELATIVELY                  
SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM INDICATES A SLOWER THAN EXPECTED END TO THE             
RAINFALL TONIGHT. AVIATION MODEL LOOKS BEST WITH TIMING FOR ENDING OF           
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.                                
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DUE TO              
WET GROUND AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL KEEP A SOME CLOUDS              
IN FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RATHER WEAK BEHIND            
THIS FIRST SYSTEM.                                                              
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT WEAKER ON ETA/NGM BUT AVN MORE                      
AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS WITH NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN INTO SOUTHERN                
WISCONSIN. WILL CARRY LOW POPS FOR NOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT                    
DRY THINGS OUT ON FRIDAY.                                                       
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
EISE                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi