AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
950 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST TONIGHT MAINTAINS EMPHASIS ON LOW TEMPS. QPF IN RUC APPEARS            
TOO FAST AND QUITE OVERDONE AS -SHRA ALONG BACK EDGE OF DEEPER COLD             
POOL ALOFT OVER CNTRL MN ARE WEAKENING ON KMPX AND KFSD WSR88D WITH             
DIURNAL TREND. WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF PCPN GIVEN THIS. OTHER              
FORECAST ISSUE IS TEMPS WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH TO NEAR RECORD               
LOWS TONIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY AND WIND GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS.                    
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MR                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
850 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                      
...EVENING UPDATE...                                                            
CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH            
COVERAGE AND OPACITY NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS LAST NIGHT, WITH SOME                  
DECENT BREAKS AROUND KBWG AREA. OVERALL TREND TOWARD P/CLOUDY, OR               
EVEN M/CLEAR, SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MIGHT HAVE A CHANCE              
TO SEE SOME RESIDUAL PERSEID METEORS? TEMPS ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER                
NIGHT OF NEAR RECORD MINIMA, BEFORE MODERATION BEGINS THIS WEEKEND              
ASSOC WITH RISING THICKNESSES. GFS MOS AND THE RUC VSBY PRODUCT                 
SUGGEST SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF KY BY SUNRISE. THINK AREAS              
FROM KLEX DOWN TOWARD KSME HAVE BEST CHCS, COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER               
SFC DEW POINTS AND LOWER DAYTIME MAXIMA TODAY DUE TO THICKER CLOUD              
COVER. XXV                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1142 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                     
.UPDATED...                                                                     
THE GRIDS LOOK FINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO NO CHANGE IS PLANNED IN               
THE FORECAST.                                                                   
THE SOUNDINGS AT 12Z FROM DTX SHOWED A STRONG CAP NEAR 700MB WHILE              
THE SOUNDINGS AT GRB AND APX DID NOW SHOW A CAP ANYWHERE NEAR THAT              
STRENGTH. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN CLEARLY ON THE VIS               
SAT LOOPS AS THE CLOUDS OVER ONTARIO EAST OF DETROIT AREA MOVING TO             
THE NORTH WHILE THE CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ARE MOVING SOUTH.                 
AS THE 500MB LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST FROM LK HURON AT 15Z             
TO NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY THE 925MB...850MB AND 700MB HEIGHTS RISE               
AND WITH THAT THE TEMPERATURES AT THOSE LEVELS WARM THROUGH THE DAY.            
THE 850MB LI INDEX REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE RUC THROUGH THE                      
AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...THERE IS DEEP MOISTURE AS ALL THREE WESTERN                
GREAT LAKE SOUNDING SHOW HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH 10000 FT AND            
THE 15Z RUC SHOWS THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN (SLOWLY DECREASING WITH             
TIME AS THE HEIGHTS RISE AND AIR WARMS FROM SUBSIDENCE FROM THE                 
RISING HEIGHTS). WITH THE LAKE STILL NEAR 18C AND THE 850 MB                    
TEMPERATURES NEAR 5C...THAT 13C DELTA BETWEEN THE LAKE AND 850MB IS             
STILL THERE AND SO IS THE DEEP MOISTURE. THUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.            
AFTERNOON SOUNDING FROM THE ETA12 SUGGEST WITH A SURFACE TEMP OF 64F            
AND DEW POINT OF 54F WE WOULD HAVE EQUAL LVL OF 28953FT AND A -.2               
SFC BASED LI NEAR LANSING. IF ONE LOWERS THE DEW POINT TO 52F THE               
EQUIL LVL DROPS TO 12000FT.  HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS ARE STILL NEAR              
34000FT.  ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO GET TO 64F              
TODAY NEAR LANSING. THUS WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN THE ZONES               
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS IF DEW                  
POINTS STAY MUCH ABOVE 55F THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES RISE NEAR 65F.                
NOTE...LIKELY WILL PUT OUT PNS THIS AFTERNOON FOR COLD WEATHER.  IF             
GRR HAS 4 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGHS BELOW 70F... WE HAVE 3 SO FAR AND            
LIKELY TODAY WILL MAKE IT FOUR... THIS WILL PUT GRR IN SECOND PLACE             
FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF HIGHS CONTINUOUSLY BELOW 70F BETWEEN JULY             
1 AND AUGUST 31  FOR OUR PERIOD OF RECORD (1880 TO 2004).  MKG WOULD            
BE IN 7TH PLACE WITH TODAY AND 5TH PLACE IF MKG CAN STAY BELOW 70F              
SATURDAY (NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION)                                              
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT               
FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NEW BUFFALO TO SOUTH                 
HAVEN THIS MORNING.                                                             
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY                  
AMPLIFIED AUG PATTERN WITH RIDGE EXTENDING N THRU THE WRN CONUS AND             
A TROF DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY S THRU THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE                
SFC...WRN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING BROAD HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN PLAINS               
AND SCNTRL CANADA WHICH IS RESULTING IN LIGHT NRLY FLOW OVER THE                
FCST AREA. BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER NRN ONTARIO 24HRS AGO HAS               
SLIPPED S AND IS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS             
WON'T BE AN ISSUE HERE TODAY AS THEY DRIFT S.                                   
GOING FCST FOR TODAY IS IN GREAT SHAPE. WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB             
THIS AFTN...12Z KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN             
THE MID 60S TO ABOUT 70. THIS IS INLINE WITH GOING FCST...SO NO REAL            
CHANGES PLANNED FOR TEMPS. IN ADDITION TO SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS...DO              
EXPECT SOME CU TO FORM...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS                  
YESTERDAY SINCE THERE IS LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVBL. ALSO...             
ETA/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING DWPT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOWER            
LAYERS THIS AFTN...SUGGESTING LESS CU DEVELOPMENT.                              
ZFP LOOKS FINE...SO NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS POINT. ONLY A FEW MINOR            
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS ARE PLANNED.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ONLY REAL FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS             
(AS WE UNDERGO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND)...AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME                
FROST AGAIN TONIGHT.                                                            
TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS             
TO GO CALM IN THE CENTRAL U P AS WELL. HOWEVER...MAY NOT SEE TEMPS              
QUITE AS COLD AS TONIGHT FOR A FEW REASONS. AFTN DEWPTS SHOULD NOT              
BOTTOM OUT QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY (PER UPSTREAM SFC OBS/HIGHER               
850MB DEWPTS TO MIX)...THE AMS OVERALL WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY                   
TODAY...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID CLOUD SPREADING IN             
FROM THE NORTH (AS IS THE CASE IN ONTARIO RIGHT NOW... PER A REGION             
OF 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD). SO...WILL TWEAK              
TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE GRIDS (TO A LOW OF 37F INLAND)...BUT KEEP                 
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. MAY BE MORE OF A DEW/ SHALLOW FOG                      
SCENARIO...BUT BASED ON THE CURRENT NIGHT CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE              
FROST. EITHER WAY THESE TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW GUIDANCE.                          
WARMING CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW KICKS IN...THOUGH IT             
APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE. ETA FCST               
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP DEVELOPING AROUND 630MB AS WE GET INTO              
SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND WITH THE DRY AMS STILL IN PLACE...                 
SHOULD AGAIN SEE ONLY SOME AFTN CU. AS PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR NORTH              
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AN INCREASED WIND SAT                 
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                
00Z RUNS AGREE IN KEEPING SUNDAY DRY...AND HOLDING PCPN OUT IN THE              
WESTERN U P UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. TREND IS TO KEEP THE UPPER TROF            
OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT LONGER...WITH CHARLEY RIDING UP THE                  
EASTERN STATES...AND AS A RESULT THE ETA/GFS EACH DIG THE NEXT                  
SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. LOOKS AS IF BEST CHANCE OF                     
CONVECTION SUN NIGHT/MON MAY BE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                    
VALLEY...BUT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR US DURING THIS TIME STILL LOOK                 
GOOD. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (DISCUSSION)                                                            
JKL (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                 
VERY INTERESTING PATTERN WE ARE IN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE MAY FIND IN             
LATE SEPTEMBER INTO OCTOBER.  NEARLY A FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE            
EASTERN CONUS WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY GRABBING MOST OF THE                       
ATTENTION.  NICE CONVERGENT BAND ACROSS LAKE HURON ENTERING INTO                
SAGINAW BAY WITH ANOTHER BAND TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NEARSHORE             
WATERS OF LAKE HURON.  ACTIVITY IN SAGINAW BAY CONTINUES TO PULSE UP            
AND AFTER CALLING OUR COAST GUARD ON PATROL...NO REPORTS OF                     
H2O-SPOUTS AT THIS TIME.  RUC13/ETA12 DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB THIS                
MORNING SHOWING WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE FIELDS SET UP AND THESE              
MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER THE NOON HOUR AS DIURNAL               
ASPECT TENDS TO DISRUPT ORGANIZED BANDS OVER THE WATER (OUTSIDE OF              
STRONG COLD ADVECTION).  H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MAIN MID LEVEL WAVE               
WAS ROTATING NORTH EAST OF LAKE HURON WITH A HINT OF SOME FEATURE               
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.  BASED ON OUR 12Z SOUNDING WE             
HAVE A STRONG CAP AT 700MB WITH A WEAKER CAP NOTED UPSTREAM IN APX.             
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.                
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ANY SUNSHINE WE SEE WILL              
LIKELY BE SELF-DESTRUCTIVE... WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD FESTIVAL               
AND KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.                                                    
SPEAKING OF TEMPS...WE HAVE YET TO REACH 90 THIS MONTH.  WE CAME                
CLOSE EARLY IN THE MONTH WITH UPPER 80S...BUT IT HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD            
TREND SINCE THEN AND GLANCE OF THE NEW LONG RANGE MODELS...NO END IN            
SITE.                                                                           
BGM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...  ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT                                       
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AT BOTH FLINT AND DETROIT.                   
THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE AT DETROIT METRO WAS 59 DEGREES                   
YESTERDAY (AUGUST 12TH). THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 60                  
DEGREES SET IN 1903.                                                            
THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE AT FLINT WAS 55 DEGREES YESTERDAY                 
(AUGUST 12TH). THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 57 DEGREES SET IN             
1967.                                                                           
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS                  
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR A SLOW              
WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BECOME LESS                        
PREVALENT...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. 1000 TO 500 MB RELATIVE                
HUMIDITY NEAR 80 PERCENT THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BE CUT IN HALF BY             
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN...WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN             
TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...EXPECT             
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.                                            
IN THE MEANTIME...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL LIKELY KEEP                   
TEMPERATURES FROM HITTING 70 DEGREES AGAIN. MESOETA 1000 TO 850 MB              
THICKNESSES DO INDICATE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED             
TO YESTERDAY. LINGERING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH                  
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL RAPES RATES DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR            
A FEW SHOWERS. 00Z MESOETA INDICATING 100 TO 200 J/KG OF CAPE                   
TODAY. NOT TO MENTION ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE HURON             
OVER THE TRI-CITIES/SAGINAW BAY REGION. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH                 
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES               
REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BACK TO THE                     
NORTH-NORTHWEST. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...WILL STILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT               
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE THUMB               
REGION TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN            
THE 5 TO 6 C RANGE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH (8000 FEET OR              
HIGHER). EXPECTING ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO END BY SATURDAY                  
AFTERNOON...AS 850 MB TEMPS MODIFY AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR               
WORKS INTO THE REGION.                                                          
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL             
CANADA/NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TO CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD...CARVING              
OUT A POSSIBLE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY                 
SUNDAY MORNING...PER 00Z GFS. THIS POSSIBLE CLOSED CIRCULATION IS               
STILL CONTINGENT ON HOW HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN            
CONUS TROUGH. MAY JUST HAVE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED                
OVER GREAT LAKES REGION...PER CANADIAN. EITHER WAY...COUNTING ON THE            
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW TO REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN             
LAKES REGION...KEEPING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DRY...AS THE LARGE SURFACE            
HIGH MAINTAINS CONTROL. NO CHANGES TO THE MAXES FOR SATURDAY AND                
SUNDAY...AS THEY ARE IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                      
OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL NEED TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...OR ELSE             
WE WILL BE STUCK IN THE UPPER 60S ONCE AGAIN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
SF                                                                              
$$                                                                              
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1105 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT               
OVER CNTRL NY COUPLED WITH A 850 THETA-E RIDGE WITH A STRONG                    
LOW-LEVEL JET BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FCST AREA THIS                  
MORNING.                                                                        
UPDATE IS HEAVILY BASED UPON THE LATEST KENX RADAR LOOP AND THE                 
LATEST IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS MOST            
OF THE ALY CWA ...EXCEPT ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND A LINE OF               
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE                 
TACONICS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/BERKSHIRES/SRN VT. THIS APPEARS TO BE                
ASSOCIATED WITH A H500 VORT MAX SHOWN ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE RUC              
MODEL. GOOD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION(NVA) MOVING                
THROUGH ERN PA. HAVE CUT THE POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE WITH A MENTION            
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE             
PICTURE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER CTRL                  
PA/ERN NY. THE LATEST IR PICTURE SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE JUST              
OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.  THIS TREND NOW CAPTURED BY 12Z ETA AND             
06Z GFS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE ALY              
FCST AREA. HAVE RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TOO. 12Z ALY SOUNDING                
CONTINUES TO THE TROPICAL LONG AND SKINNY PROFILE WITH PW-VALUE OF              
1.74"...SBCAPE OF 440 J/KG AND S/SW FLOW VEERING IN THE                         
LOWER-MID-LEVELS...SO WOULDN'T RULE OUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY                
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE.                                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AT LEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE GROUND ACROSS            
THE FCST AREA IS EXTREMELY SATURATED WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES               
HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 4.48" OF RAIN FELL AT SLIDE                 
MOUNTAIN IN ULSTER CO. SEE THE LATEST HYDALB. ANY ADDITIONAL                    
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR THE STREAMS...CREEKS AND SMALL                 
RIVERS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLOOD WATCH CTZ001-013 THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY.                                
MA...FLOOD WATCH MAZ001-025 THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY.                                
NY...FLOOD WATCH NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084             
     THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY.                                                       
VT...FLOOD WATCH VTZ013>015 THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH AREA OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM                      
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS MORNING. GOOD NEWS IS THAT HEAVY RAIN                 
ASSOCIATED WITH TS BONNIE WILL GENERALLY PASS EAST OF OUR FORECAST              
AREA. MOST LIKELY ZONES AFFECTED WILL BE OUR NEW ENGLAND ZONES.                 
LOOKING FOR A BREAK IN THE ACTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY            
EVENING THEN RAIN FROM HURRICANE CHARLIE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO              
THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ABOUT QPF HERE.  GFS80 KEEPS MOST OF AREA             
BETWEEN TWO BULLSEYES OF HEAVY RAIN WHILE THE ETA GIVES US A DIRECT             
HIT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                             
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING HERE.  SO WILL SUBMIT PREVIOUS LT DISCUSSION.           
AFTER CHARLEY MOVES THROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR             
TAKES HOLD FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES            
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH                     
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE OUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR               
THIS PERIOD AND WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE                  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCLUDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN             
THE FORECAST AGAIN.                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL APPROACH THE                         
AREA TONIGHT.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO IFR AND                   
POSSIBLY LIFR IN HEAVY RAIN.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THIS                
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  LATEST MODELS TAKE REMNANTS OF BONNIE              
TO THE EAST OF ORIGINAL TRACK.  HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE EAST OF TAF                
ROUTE KGFL-KALB-KPOU.  BY TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME MIST/FOG                
WITH ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO                
LESS THAN 3 MILES.                                                              
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FLOOD WARNING FOR                 
METTAWEE RIVER AT MIDDLE GRANVILLE IN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR MINOR               
FLOODING.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND BUT             
STILL NEED TO DEAL WITH RUNOFF FROM PAST 24 HOURS AMOUNTS. QPF FOR              
700 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 7AM SATURDAY RANGES FROM 0.25 INCH WEST TO                
AROUND 1.00 INCH EAST.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...WASULA                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
958 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT)                                                    
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SC/AC ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...BUT CLOUDS ARE            
CONTINUING TO THIN.  HAVE SEEN A FEW RENEGADE -SHRA UP NEAR                     
KFWA...AND MAY BE GETTING A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACRS WEST CNTRL OH.                 
HOWEVER...RADAR RETURNS ARE DECREASING AND LARGE AREA OF NVA NOTED              
ON RUC 500 MB PROG MOVNG IN FROM WEST...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN               
REST OF NIGHT.  CURRENT RUC DATA ALSO INDCG GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE             
TO HANG ON AT 700/850 MB LVLS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT.  WHILE CLOUDS                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS NIGHT                       
PROGRESSES...AM NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT              
ACRS FCST AREA.  HAVE ADJUSTED TO SKIES BECMG PTLY CLDY OVERNIGHT AS            
A RESULT.  STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE ENUF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS               
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAWN.  ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO BUMP                
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED.                    
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (00Z-00Z)                                                             
EXTENSIVE CU/AC DECK SLOWLY ERODING THIS EVNG...AS WEAK S/WV HAS                
SHIFTED EAST OF REGION.  CU FIELD APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP FURTHER             
WEST...WITH LARGE AREA OF NVA NOTED ACRS INDIANA/ILLINOIS. HAVE SEEN            
A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR...BUT CLOSEST OBS SITE TO REPORT ANY PCPN IS             
AT KDFI (DEFIANCE) IN NW OHIO. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON CLEARING                
TREND FROM 18Z TAFS...AS THINK IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF EVNG FOR CLOUDS             
TO DISSIPATE.  BRING IN SKC AT ALL BUT KCMH AFT MIDNITE... BUT EVEN             
HERE SHOULD JUST BE SCT CU/AC OVERNIGHT.  WITH DEWPTS HAVING                    
RECOVERED INTO L/M50S ACRS MUCH OF SRN/WRN OHIO...THINK THERE WILL              
BE SOME FOG DVPLMNT TOWARDS DAWN.  HIT FOG HARDEST AT KCVG/KLUK                 
WHERE DEWPTS ARE HIGHEST. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCVG/KDAY/KILN/             
KCMH WITH IFR VSBYS EXPECTED AT KLUK.                                           
AFTER NICE START TO MRNG...SHOULD CU UP ONCE AGAIN WITH UPR TROF                
HOLDING JUST TO OUR WEST.  ONCE AGAIN AFTN MODEL RUNS TRYING TO SPIT            
OUT SOME LIGHT QPF ACRS NRN OHIO SAT AFTN.  WITH LITTLE IF ANY ISENT            
LIFT NOTED EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.  CU WILL GO BKN              
DURING AFTN HOURS...BUT DO THINK WE WILL SEE MORE SUN THAN WE DID               
TODAY.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                   
H5 TROF REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WAITING FOR BONNIE AND              
CHARLEY TO CLEAR THE EAST COAST.  MUCH OF THE CU WEST OF CENTRAL                
INDIANA APPEARS CONVECTIVE AND EXPECT IT TO DRY QUICKLY AFTER                   
SUNSET.  THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES.                   
SKIES WILL CU AGAIN TOMORROW.  MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING ANOTHER               
H5 SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE TROF SAT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE                  
SWINGS ACROSS THE FA ON SUN...SO WILL GO WHICH LOW CHANCE POPS ON               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND SUNDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE                
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED. DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED EARLY NEXT                
WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY                
WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE            
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.                                           
AREA WILL BE UNDER A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD SO            
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.                             
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION: RYAN                                                           
SHORT TERM: SITES                                                               
LONG TERM: CONIGLIO                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1017 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM WILL STEAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM SW            
TO NE. SURFACE FRONT LOCATED ACROSS E PORTION OF AREA PROGGED TO                
MOVE JUST A LITTLE TO E TODAY BEFORE HALTING. SUFFIENT MOISTURE                 
EXISTS VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS E...WHILE              
ENOUGH MOISTURE BEHIND BOUNDAY FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO PRODUCE              
ISOLATED CONVECTION MOUNTAINS/BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH INSTABILITY RATHER            
LIMITED. ADJUSTED SKY COVER PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...PORTRAYING                  
BREAKS IMMEDIATE LEE OF MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT MAV GUIDANCE              
QUITE COOL...EXPECT RADIATIONAL HEATING IN BREAKS OR THIN CIRRUS TO             
ALLOW AREA TO REACH FORECAST MAXIMUMS. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO DEW                 
POINTS BASED ON MESOETA. UPDATED WIND WITH RUC...WHICH SEEMED TO                
HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON DIRECTION...BUT BOOSTED SPEED A BIT BASED ON                
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL UPDATE TABULAR PRODUCTS TO CAPTURE TRENDS...             
AND ZONES FOR AFTERNOON WORDING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
REMNANTS OF BONNIE PULLING AWAY FROM THE CWFA ATTM AND WILL HAVE                
LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL EFFECT ON OUR WX. SOME LINGERING SHRA THIS             
MORNING BUT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND LIGHT. GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY. SFC FNT OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A               
LITTLE SFC CONVERGENCE...SO HAVE CHC POP IN THE AFTERNOON EAST AND              
SLIGHT CHC POP WEST.                                                            
OBVIOUSLY...BIGGEST CONCERN THIS FCST PACKAGE IS TRACK OF HURRICANE             
CHARLEY. LATEST FCST GUIDANCE TAKES CENTER EAST OF OUR CWFA...WITH              
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR EAST. GFS CLOSEST TO CURRENT FCST                 
TRACK SO HAVE FOLLOWED THAT AND GUIDANCE FROM NATIONAL CENTERS. HAVE            
GONE WITH THE HIGHER MAV POPS...BUT STILL TRIED TO INDICATE A                   
GRADIENT TO LOWER POP IN THE WEST. ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES                   
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR STARTING SATURDAY                 
MORNING CONTINUING THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE            
TRACK COULD CAUSE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE                 
HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES               
ATTM. EXPECT THE DAY SHIFT TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA AND CAN FINE TUNE              
THE WATCH TO INCLUDE THE AREAS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT. HAVE                   
UPDATED ESF TO ADDRESS THIS THINKING. WILL ISSUE AN SPS AFTER THE 5             
AM HURRICANE FCST UPDATE TO ADDRESS WIND CONCERNS.                              
ALL THAT SAID...POP INCREASING TO LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND                     
CATEGORICAL SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE RAMPED UP QPF                
FCST IN THE EAST AS WELL. POP DROPPING OFF TO CHC SATURDAY NIGHT AND            
SLIGHT CHC SUNDAY. WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE ON LOWS AND IN               
BETWEEN ON HIGHS...XCPT SUNDAY HIGHS WHERE WARMER GUIDANCE FOLLOWED.            
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
NO CHANGES TO GOING FCST THESE PERIODS.                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
A WIDE RANGE OF CEILINGS AND VSBY ACROSS THE CWFA THIS MORNING...               
WITH THE MOST DIRE CONDITIONS NOTED IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE            
REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO               
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF THE UPSTATE INTO              
THE NC FOOTHILLS...AND WILL HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY WITH VCSH AT THE 3             
PIEDMONT SITES...UNTIL UPPER JET AXIS SHUNTS THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO             
THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING. AS DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR                   
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION...WE MAY SEE CEILINGS AND             
VSBYS LOWER TOWARD SUNRISE...AND HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED THIS IN               
THE TAFS...ESP AT KGSP AND KAND. AT KAVL...SURFACE FLOW CHANNELING              
DOWN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT 10-15 KTS SHOULD PREVENT IFR VSBY               
FROM FORMING...BUT CONSIDERING THE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...              
HAVE CARRIED TEMPOS FOR MVFR VSBY WITH AN IFR CEILING DURING THE                
PRE-DAWN.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...JAT                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
957 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                      
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF           
THE UNITED STATES...WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW HEIGHTS. AT THE SURFACE...            
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.              
THESE WEATHER FEATURES WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS RECORD COLD             
TEMPERATURES. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE                
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION               
NOTED FROM THE 850 MB UPPER AIR PLOTS THIS MORNING. 12Z RUC MODEL               
INDICATES CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...SO CURRENT                 
FORECAST HIGH TEMPS LOOK GOOD.                                                  
MORNING 12Z SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE SHOWING A SHALLOW LAYER OF                  
MOISTURE AROUND 800 MB AND REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEPING A                
SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH               
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT...THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND               
SOME DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SHALLOW CU FIELD TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP            
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE              
OVER EASTERN AREAS. SO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN CURRENT ZONES WILL              
SUFFICE. DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN             
CONTROL. IN ADDITION...GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT TIGHTER ACROSS EASTERN            
AREAS SO HIGHER WINDS EASTERN SECTIONS AS GOING IN CURRENT FORECAST             
LOOKS GOOD AS WELL.                                                             
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...SO NO UPDATES WILL BE            
NEEDED.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 317 AM...                                             
DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. USHERING UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR            
INTO THE MID SOUTH. UNION CITY...PARIS AND SAVANNAH ALL AT 48                   
DEGREES WITH OVER 3 HOURS UNTIL SUNRISE! TUP HAS ALREADY BROKEN A               
RECORD OF 57...CURRENT TEMPS IS 55. MKL WAS DOWN TO 52 AND SHOULD BE            
ABLE TO TIE OR BREAK THE RECORD OF 50. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY AS               
LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUES TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS OF 8-10C AND 1000-500MB             
THICKNESSES OF 5580-5610M TODAY WHICH ARE RARE FOR MID AUGUST. HIGHS            
IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTN WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALL             
4 MAJOR CLIMATE SITES...MEM...MKL...TUP...JBR...ARE EXPECTED TO                 
BREAK COOLEST HIGH TEMP RECORDS THIS AFTN. WL SEE SOME SCT CU THIS              
AFTN BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.                                              
ANOTHER COOL ONE TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIRMASS AND SFC WINDS               
DECOUPLING WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 50S             
EVERYWHERE. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER LOCALES.              
ALL 4 MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK THERE RESPECTIVE                
RECORD LOWS.                                                                    
AIRMASS WL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER              
TROF BEINGS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                 
WILL CONT TO DOMINATE THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT                 
HIGHS TO BE NEAR 80 ON SAT AFTN AND IN THE LOWER 80S SUN AFTN.                  
AIRMASS WL STILL BE QUITE DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO STILL                
QUITE PLEASANT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. COOL NIGHTS WILL CONT                   
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                                            
UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE RIDGE             
SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY LATE TUE. THIS WL CONTINUE THE               
MODERATING TREND AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S BY WED WITH                  
INCREASING HUMIDITY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WL BE THU AS ANOTHER FRONT             
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
AR...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLH/SJM                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OTHER THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS...CIGS WILL BE VFR...WITH UNLIMITED                 
VISIBILITIES.  59                                                               
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1045 AM CDT                                                                     
SOME MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST                 
LOCATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.             
WILL UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP TEMPORAL WORDING...KEEPING AFTERNOON POPS             
WESTERN ZONES. 25                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
610 AM CDT                                                                      
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS            
TODAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS            
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE              
METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED            
ACROSS THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BUT THIS                 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.                  
THUS WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS IN FOR MOST OF TODAY...WITH LIGHT                   
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS.                
#58                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
410 AM CDT                                                                      
SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MOVING SOUTHEAST. WILL             
UPDATE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FOR POPS THIS MORNING.                     
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND GOT FIRED UP BY WEAK SOUTHEAST MOVING                
VORTICITY MAX MAX NOW ANALYZED IN NEW RUC DATA. CONVECTION SHOULD               
WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE.            84                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
300 AM CDT                                                                      
HERE WE GO AGAIN...RIDING THE MODEL SEESAW. YESTERDAY THINGS LOOKED             
FAIRLY DRY...BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALL BETS ARE OFF.                    
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COMES BACK SATURDAY WITH SLOW DEWPOINT                   
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS ARE BACK IN THE MID 60S.                 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN RIDING DOWN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS             
EVERY EVENING...AND WITH THE DEWPOINTS RISING OUR INSTABILITY WILL              
INCREASE. MODEL PRECIP GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO WHAT I               
HAVE TRIED TO DO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS INDICATE LOWER CONFIDENCE            
POPS WHERE THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS...AND POPS WILL HAVE TO BE             
ADJUSTED AS TIME PROGRESSES...I HAVE NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT.                       
FRIDAY...LOW POPS INDICATED WESTERN HALF WHERE SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS            
TO RETURN PROVIDING SOME SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK                  
UPSLOPE. THEN OVERNIGHT LOOKS LIKE MCS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ZONES            
EARLY WITH REMNANTS POSSIBLY MAKING IT AS FAR AS THE METROPLEX AND              
SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                                               
SATURDAY...AFTER NOCTURNAL PRECIP DIES OUT...NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOWS              
UP. GFS KEEPS PRECIP TO OUR NORTHWEST. ETA...NGM...MESOETA BRING A              
60 DEGREE DEWPOINT AXIS OVER CWA AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG IT. CROSS             
SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS BEHAVIOR LIKE A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH LIFT                
BEGINNING AROUND COLLEGE STATION AND SLOPING UP OVER NORTHWEST OF               
WICHITA FALLS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INDICATED IN THIS ZONE                      
WITH INSTABILITY ABOVE. THE POPS I PUT IN RUN GENERALLY WEST OF I 35            
AND NORTH OF I 20...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX.                                    
SUNDAY...BEST AREA LOOKS NORTH OF METROPLEX UP INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE              
MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS                   
OKLAHOMA TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORMS. THE POPS EXTEND FROM                      
YOUNG...DENTON..HOPKINS COUNTIES AND NORTH.                                     
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND BY              
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MODERATE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS                 
TOWARDS US. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY AND I INDICATED POPS                    
NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AGAIN AND GFS LONG                 
RANGE BRINGS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF THURSDAY...AND THEN               
SHOWS WIDESPREAD POPS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. I HAVE INDICATED            
THIS WITH POPS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA THURSDAY AND THEN ALL OF CWA                
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.      84                                          
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS                                                    
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX    89  66  90  68 /   0  20  20   0                        
WACO, TX                89  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0                        
PARIS, TX               85  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0                        
DENTON, TX              86  63  90  67 /   0  20  20   0                        
MCKINNEY, TX            87  63  90  67 /   0  20  20   0                        
DALLAS, TX              89  66  90  68 /   0  20  20   0                        
TERRELL, TX             88  64  90  67 /   0   0   0   0                        
CORSICANA, TX           89  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0                        
TEMPLE, TX              89  63  90  67 /  20   0   0   0                        
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1045 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1045 AM CDT                                                                     
SOME MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST                 
LOCATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.             
WILL UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP TEMPORAL WORDING...KEEPING AFTERNOON POPS             
WESTERN ZONES. 25                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
610 AM CDT                                                                      
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS            
TODAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS            
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE              
METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED            
ACROSS THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BUT THIS                 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.                  
THUS WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS IN FOR MOST OF TODAY...WITH LIGHT                   
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS.                
#58                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
410 AM CDT                                                                      
SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MOVING SOUTHEAST. WILL             
UPDATE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FOR POPS THIS MORNING.                     
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND GOT FIRED UP BY WEAK SOUTHEAST MOVING                
VORTICITY MAX MAX NOW ANALYZED IN NEW RUC DATA. CONVECTION SHOULD               
WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE.            84                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
300 AM CDT                                                                      
HERE WE GO AGAIN...RIDING THE MODEL SEESAW. YESTERDAY THINGS LOOKED             
FAIRLY DRY...BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALL BETS ARE OFF.                    
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COMES BACK SATURDAY WITH SLOW DEWPOINT                   
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS ARE BACK IN THE MID 60S.                 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN RIDING DOWN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS             
EVERY EVENING...AND WITH THE DEWPOINTS RISING OUR INSTABILITY WILL              
INCREASE. MODEL PRECIP GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO WHAT I               
HAVE TRIED TO DO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS INDICATE LOWER CONFIDENCE            
POPS WHERE THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS...AND POPS WILL HAVE TO BE             
ADJUSTED AS TIME PROGRESSES...I HAVE NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT.                       
FRIDAY...LOW POPS INDICATED WESTERN HALF WHERE SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS            
TO RETURN PROVIDING SOME SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK                  
UPSLOPE. THEN OVERNIGHT LOOKS LIKE MCS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ZONES            
EARLY WITH REMNANTS POSSIBLY MAKING IT AS FAR AS THE METROPLEX AND              
SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                                               
SATURDAY...AFTER NOCTURNAL PRECIP DIES OUT...NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOWS              
UP. GFS KEEPS PRECIP TO OUR NORTHWEST. ETA...NGM...MESOETA BRING A              
60 DEGREE DEWPOINT AXIS OVER CWA AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG IT. CROSS             
SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS BEHAVIOR LIKE A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH LIFT                
BEGINNING AROUND COLLEGE STATION AND SLOPING UP OVER NORTHWEST OF               
WICHITA FALLS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INDICATED IN THIS ZONE                      
WITH INSTABILITY ABOVE. THE POPS I PUT IN RUN GENERALLY WEST OF I 35            
AND NORTH OF I 20...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX.                                    
SUNDAY...BEST AREA LOOKS NORTH OF METROPLEX UP INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE              
MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS                   
OKLAHOMA TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORMS. THE POPS EXTEND FROM                      
YOUNG...DENTON..HOPKINS COUNTIES AND NORTH.                                     
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND BY              
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MODERATE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS                 
TOWARDS US. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY AND I INDICATED POPS                    
NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AGAIN AND GFS LONG                 
RANGE BRINGS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF THURSDAY...AND THEN               
SHOWS WIDESPREAD POPS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. I HAVE INDICATED            
THIS WITH POPS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA THURSDAY AND THEN ALL OF CWA                
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.      84                                          
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS                                                    
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX    89  66  90  68 /   0  20  20   0                        
WACO, TX                89  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0                        
PARIS, TX               85  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0                        
DENTON, TX              86  63  90  67 /   0  20  20   0                        
MCKINNEY, TX            87  63  90  67 /   0  20  20   0                        
DALLAS, TX              89  66  90  68 /   0  20  20   0                        
TERRELL, TX             88  64  90  67 /   0   0   0   0                        
CORSICANA, TX           89  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0                        
TEMPLE, TX              89  63  90  67 /  20   0   0   0                        
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
610 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS            
TODAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS            
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE              
METROPLEX AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERTORMS ARE EXPECTED             
ACROSS THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BUT THIS                 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.                  
THUS WILL KEEP VFR CEILINGS IN FOR MOST OF TODAY...WITH LIGHT                   
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KNOTS.                
#58                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
410 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                      
SOME SHOWERS POPPING UP IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MOVING SOUTHEAST. WILL             
UPDATE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FOR POPS THIS MORNING.                     
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND GOT FIRED UP BY WEAK SOUTHEAST MOVING                
VORTICITY MAX MAX NOW ANALYZED IN NEW RUC DATA. CONVECTION SHOULD               
WEAKEN AFTER SUNRISE.            84                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
300 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                                      
HERE WE GO AGAIN...RIDING THE MODEL SEESAW. YESTERDAY THINGS LOOKED             
FAIRLY DRY...BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALL BETS ARE OFF.                    
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COMES BACK SATURDAY WITH SLOW DEWPOINT                   
INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN DEWPOINTS ARE BACK IN THE MID 60S.                 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN RIDING DOWN THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS             
EVERY EVENING...AND WITH THE DEWPOINTS RISING OUR INSTABILITY WILL              
INCREASE. MODEL PRECIP GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE...SO WHAT I               
HAVE TRIED TO DO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS INDICATE LOWER CONFIDENCE            
POPS WHERE THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSENSUS...AND POPS WILL HAVE TO BE             
ADJUSTED AS TIME PROGRESSES...I HAVE NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT.                       
FRIDAY...LOW POPS INDICATED WESTERN HALF WHERE SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS            
TO RETURN PROVIDING SOME SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WEAK                  
UPSLOPE. THEN OVERNIGHT LOOKS LIKE MCS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ZONES            
EARLY WITH REMNANTS POSSIBLY MAKING IT AS FAR AS THE METROPLEX AND              
SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                                               
SATURDAY...AFTER NOCTURNAL PRECIP DIES OUT...NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOWS              
UP. GFS KEEPS PRECIP TO OUR NORTHWEST. ETA...NGM...MESOETA BRING A              
60 DEGREE DEWPOINT AXIS OVER CWA AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG IT. CROSS             
SECTION ANALYSIS SHOWS BEHAVIOR LIKE A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH LIFT                
BEGINNING AROUND COLLEGE STATION AND SLOPING UP OVER NORTHWEST OF               
WICHITA FALLS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INDICATED IN THIS ZONE                      
WITH INSTABILITY ABOVE. THE POPS I PUT IN RUN GENERALLY WEST OF I 35            
AND NORTH OF I 20...INCLUDING THE METROPLEX.                                    
SUNDAY...BEST AREA LOOKS NORTH OF METROPLEX UP INTO OKLAHOMA WHERE              
MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS                   
OKLAHOMA TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORMS. THE POPS EXTEND FROM                      
YOUNG...DENTON..HOPKINS COUNTIES AND NORTH.                                     
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND BY              
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MODERATE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS                 
TOWARDS US. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY AND I INDICATED POPS                    
NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AGAIN AND GFS LONG                 
RANGE BRINGS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF THURSDAY...AND THEN               
SHOWS WIDESPREAD POPS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. I HAVE INDICATED            
THIS WITH POPS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA THURSDAY AND THEN ALL OF CWA                
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.      84                                          
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS                                                    
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX    89  66  90  68 /   0  20  20   0                        
WACO, TX                89  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0                        
PARIS, TX               85  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0                        
DENTON, TX              86  63  90  67 /   0  20  20   0                        
MCKINNEY, TX            87  63  90  67 /   0  20  20   0                        
DALLAS, TX              89  66  90  68 /   0  20  20   0                        
TERRELL, TX             88  64  90  67 /   0   0   0   0                        
CORSICANA, TX           89  63  90  67 /   0   0   0   0                        
TEMPLE, TX              89  63  90  67 /  20   0   0   0                        
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
432 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATING/CORRECTING GRIDS TO RELECT DVLPG SHRA IN CNTRL KS AND TO               
FIX WIND GUST GRIDS ON MON.  FAIRLY DECENT SLUG OF MSTR SLIDING SE              
OUT OF NEB.  LTST RUC IS NOT TOO BAD, SUG PCPN WL PROBABLY HOLD                 
TOGETHER FOR A FEW MORE HRS, BUT SHUD STRUGGLE TO SPREAD MUCH                   
FURTHER S/E THAN GBD-MCPHERSON LN. UPDATED ZFP OUT...GRIDS POSTING              
NOW.                                                                            
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
339 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
TDA:                                                                            
WEAK ECHOES EVIDENT AGN THIS MORNING IN SE KS AND JUST TO W OF FCST             
AREA. HAVE INCLD SML POPS IN FAR SW WHERE PCPN IS MORE THAT A FEW               
SPKLS.  OTHERWISE TEMPS SHUD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YDA.                    
TNGT-SUN:                                                                       
WL KEEP CHC OF POPS GOING TNGT IN FAR W WITH TEMP/MSTR ADVCTN IN                
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OUTSIDE CHC THAT PCPN COULD DVLP ERY THIS EVE, BUT             
ANTICIPATE THE BEST CHC TOWARDS DAYBRK SUN.  ALSO PSBL THAT PCPN                
COULD LINGER PAST 12Z, BUT WL KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW.  LINGERING CLDS            
ON SUN SHUD CUT INTO POTENTIAL WARMUP...WITH LTL CHG TO GOING FCST.             
SUN NGT-MON:                                                                    
MODELS STARTING TO COME AROUND WITH A BTR CHC OF PCPN SUN NGT.  AGN             
IT MAY BE PSBL TO BREAK CAP IN THE FAR W SUN EVE...BUT BETTER CHC               
OVR ENTIRE AREA IS IN CLIMO FAVORED ERY MORNING HRS.  ETA HINTS THAT            
REMNANT OF TSTMS/MCS OVR NEB COULD BE THE PRIMARY CULPRIT FOR THE               
ERY MORNING PCPN...AND GIVEN TEMP/DEWPT GRADIENTS AND WK SHRTWV...              
CERTAINTLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  WHATEVER THE MECHANISM, BOTH                   
ETA/GFS MOS HAVE COME IN WITH CHC POPS, AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.              
TEMPS REBOUND IN WAKE OF SYS ACR THE W, WHILE LINGERING CLDS SHUD               
CUT INTO MAXES IN FAR SE.                                                       
TUE-FRI:                                                                        
MODELS STILL OSCILLATING ON TIMING OF CFNT, WITH YDA 12Z RUNS A BIT             
SLOWER AND LOOKING AT 00Z GFS IS APPARENTLY SLOWER YET. HOWEVER 12Z             
ENSEMBLES DID SHOW SOME OUTLIERS THAT WOULD RESULT IN MUCH DIFFERENT            
OUTCOMES.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT SUSPICIOUS GIVEN THE WAY IT                
DEEPENS CANADIAN LOW AND SHUNTS COOLER AIR E.  THIS IS QUITE A BIT              
DIFFERENT FM PREV RUN (AND RECENT HISTORY WHERE COOLER AIR HAS                  
EASILY SPILLED INTO THE REGION.)  THE LACK OF COLD SURGE LEAVES A WK            
SFC BNDRY HUNG UP W/E ACRS FCST AREA FOR MOST OF THIS PD...WHICH IS             
NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FM LTST GFS.  UNFORTUNATELY WL NOT GET 00Z ECMWF             
RUN ERY ENUF TO PERUSE BEFORE GOING TO PRESS WITH GRIDS.  LONG WAY              
TO SAY LTL CHG TO GOING FCST WHICH HEDGES TWRDS COOLER TEMPS IN N               
AND COOLING TREND TWRD THE END OF THE WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR SGFNT CHGS            
TO FCST POPS/TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW THIS UNFOLDS.                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    79  59  80  64 /  10  10  10  30                                
HUTCHINSON      79  58  81  64 /  10  20  10  30                                
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  10  10  10  30                                
ELDORADO        79  58  81  64 /  10  10  10  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  59  79  64 /  10  10  10  30                                
RUSSELL         76  56  80  62 /  10  20  10  30                                
GREAT BEND      77  57  80  63 /  10  30  10  30                                
SALINA          79  58  81  64 /  10  10  10  30                                
MCPHERSON       79  58  81  63 /  10  20  10  30                                
COFFEYVILLE     80  56  82  62 /  10  10  10  20                                
CHANUTE         79  55  79  62 /  10  10  10  20                                
IOLA            79  54  79  62 /  10  10  10  20                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/HOWERTON                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
215 AM MDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN AROUND PLACEMENT AND                   
CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER/POP FORECAST AS A SLOW WARMUP CONTINUES ACROSS            
THE AREA.                                                                       
AT 0800Z CONVECTIVE CELLS HAD BEGUN OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES                 
AND POINTS SOUTH. CURRENT 06Z ETA AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUN AND THE                
CURRENT RUC CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BIT MORE COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN           
1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE ELEVATED CIN VALUES ARE LEAST AND MID LEVEL               
MOISTURE THE HIGHEST. THE 09Z FORECAST FROM THE ADJAVN GUIDANCE HAD             
THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY PRETTY WELL SO USED IT FOR THE SHORT TERM.                
TODAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREAS                   
WEATHER UNDERNEATH A WEST COAST RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS               
NECK OF THE WORLD KIND OF CAUGHT IN BETWEEN WITH VARYING INTENSITIES            
OF 850 WARMING BY THE MODELS. FOR TODAY THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT               
WITH A GENERAL 1-3F WARMUP FROM FRIDAYS READINGS. FOR SUNDAY THE                
ETA/UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THEIR 850 WARMING WHEN COMPARED TO             
THE GFS/ECMWF AND NGM. AVERAGING THE GFS/ETA/NGM GIVES A WARMUP OF 4-           
7F FROM SATURDAYS EXPECTED READINGS. THIS AVERAGING OF THE 850                  
WARMUP ALSO MATCHES THE MAV/FWC/ETA MOS GUIDANCE WARMUP AS WELL SO              
WILL LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.                                                 
AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES...GREATEST INSTABILITY AND LESS CIN AS WELL            
AS 850/700 THETA-E AXIS AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE FROM THE                 
NORTHWEST FAVOR MOSTLY OUR COLORADO COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE             
DAY TODAY. AS THIS WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS OVER           
THE AREA. ETA 850-700 CIN VALUES ARE WEAKEST OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF            
OUR AREA WHICH MATCHES ITS QPF FORECAST PRETTY WELL...MOSTLY AFTER              
06Z. THINGS HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT IF THE ETA                  
TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH THEN THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY NOT BE MET.             
SURFACE AND 850-700 CIN AS WELL AS 700-500 MOISTURE WOULD AGAIN                 
FAVOR THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA.                                              
SUNDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA WITH              
PRETTY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FROM THE ETA/GFS. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES                
ONLY ABOUT 0-3MB SO THEIR ISNT A GREAT PUSH BEHIND IT. WILL KEEP                
SOME SMALL POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.                                          
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING ISSUES ON WHEN/HOW FAR THE FRONT              
GETS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE ETA A BIT STRONGER PER ITS NORTHEAST             
WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE AREA. GFS HAS THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER                 
NORTH. EITHER WAY...EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG                
THE BOUNDARY WHEREVER IT MAY SHOW UP. WILL TEND TO THINK THAT FOR               
NOW WILL COMPROMISE WITH A MCCOOK TO GOODLAND TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE            
AND POINTS SOUTH OF IT (NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION).                    
TEMPERATURES AT 850 CONTINUE TO WARM DESPITE THE NORTHEAST WINDS                
WITH A GENERAL 2F (KITR) TO 10F (KHLC) WARMUP PER ETA/GFS 850                   
TEMPERATURES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS AS WELL             
AND ISNT ALL THAT FAR OFF FROM THE VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.                
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST GFS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS                
RUN...ADVERTISING A LARGE CHUNK OF THE UPPER LOW IN ALASKA TO MOVE              
SOUTH AND/OR SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY GIVEN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS A             
GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN. GIVEN            
THE LACK OF DETAILS AND THE IMPACT OF RUNNING WITH ONE RUN VS                   
ANOTHER WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS. IT DOES LOOK HOWEVER                 
THAT WE REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.                                   
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
400 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO ASSESS CHANCES FOR ANY              
SHOWERS TODAY.                                                                  
THE SFC WX MAP EARLY THIS A.M. SHOWS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS             
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. IR SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS                    
INDICATE THAT SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA AS A RESULT.            
THIS CLEARING IS ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP, BUT THAT SHOULD                
BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. THEN AFTER A FAIR                  
AMOUNT OF SUN THROUGH LATE MORNING, IT APPEARS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CU              
WILL DEVELOP, MAINLY SOUTH (ETA CU PROG SHOWS SCT TO BKN SKY                    
CONDITIONS THIS AFTN). ADDITIONALLY, A SHARP H5 SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE             
THROUGH THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THAT AND INSTABILITY                
GENERATED FROM SFC HEATING AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT, WE BELIEVE SCT               
SHOWERS WILL POP THIS AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.             
LI'S FALLING TO NEAR ZERO WITH TOTAL TOTALS APPROACHING 50 AND SB               
CAPES AROUND 200-300 J/KG IS ALSO INDICATIVE OF SHOWER POTENTIAL                
(STEEP LAPSE RATES PROGGED FROM THE SFC UP TO AROUND 700 MB TOO).               
THE GFS, ETA-12 AND RUC-13 ALL SHOW A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP,                 
MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THOSE OVER OUR             
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. WE COULD SEE GOING CHC POPS FOR SCT SHOWERS           
BUT AFTER COORD WITH DTX/APX OPTED TO STICK WITH ISOLATED WORDING.              
AFTER A FEW LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS, SKIES WILL CLEAR PRETTY                  
QUICKLY TONIGHT IN SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SFC HIGH                  
PRESSURE RIDGE. THAT SFC HIGH WILL PRODUCE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES SUNDAY, AND MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 70'S. IN FACT THE                
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY             
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND SW RETURN FLOW ON              
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH MONDAY WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE              
UPPER 70'S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. WARMER WX FINALLY RETURNS!                       
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT, SO WE'LL            
CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS BY THEN TO ACCOUNT FOR             
THAT.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE               
TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON                  
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCE APPEARS                     
WARRANTED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS            
LIKE A DRY AND SEASONAL DAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG              
UPSTREAM. THE LATEST 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE SLOWING THE                       
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS HAS              
HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...AND WILL BEGIN            
TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. AFTER FROPA IT             
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR LATE IN THE                 
WEEK. HOWEVER IT'S HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT JUST HOW COLD SINCE THE            
UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT APPEAR TO DIG/PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE               
ONE WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES REGION RECENTLY.                   
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD USHER IN A DRY              
WEATHER PERIOD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
$$                                                                              
LAURENS MEADE                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAMILIAR UPR AIR              
PATTERN...DEEP UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE              
RDG IN THE ROCKIES. CWA DIRECTLY UNDER TROF AXIS AND H5/H7 THERMAL              
TROF (H5/H7 TEMPS -21C/-5C). DESPITE FAIRLY DRY LLVL AIR AS SHOWN ON            
00Z GRB/INL SDNGS...H85-7 LAPSE RATES STEEP ENUF (7.0-7.5C/KM) FOR              
SOME ISOLD -SHRA OVER AREAS NR THE WI BORDER THIS AFTN. ISOLD -SHRA             
ALSO NOTED OVER MN AND ACROSS ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP. SHRA HAVE               
ENDED...BUT SCT MID CLD LINGERS OVER NRN LK SUP AND ADJOINING                   
ONTARIO. THIS CLD TENDING TO DRIFT SLOWLY S IN THE NLY FLOW ALF. 00Z            
YPL SDNG SHOWS INFLUENCE OF SHRTWV RIDGE ANALZD OVER NW ONTARIO...              
WITH A MUCH WARMER MID TROP/STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVRN ABV H8.                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLD               
-SHRA TDAY...TEMPS TNGT/SUN...THEN TIMING OF NEXT SHRA CHC SUN                  
NGT/MON ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHRTWV FCST TO RIDE OVER ROCKIES RDG               
AND DROP SE INTO THE GRT LKS ON BACK SIDE OF PERSISTENT ERN TROF.               
FOR TDAY...MODELS SHOW UPR GRT LKS COMING UNDER INFLUENCE OF SHRTWV             
RDG NOW IN NW ONTARIO...WITH ACCOMANYING SUBSIDENCE/DNVA/H85-3                  
QVECTOR DVGC/H4-2 CNVGC AIDING IN RISING H5/H7 HGTS. H5/H7 TEMPS                
FCST ABOUT 2C HIER THAN YDAY...AND FLOW ALSO MORE ACYC UNDER RISING             
HTGS REGIME. BUT ETA STILL SHOWING H85-7 LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.0-                
7.5C/KM RANGE. FCST SDNGS SHOW THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT FCST MID             
LVL SUBSIDENCE INVRN QUITE SHARP (SIMILAR TO 00Z YPL SDNG). SO ETA              
FCST KINX 23 TMRW AFTN AT IRON RIVER...AS COMPARED TO 27 ON FRI.                
EVEN FOR SFC DWPTS APRCHG 50...MODEL FCST SDNGS SHOW JUST OVER 100              
J/KG CAPE. CONSIDERING NEGATIVE DYNAMICS...DECREASED INSTABILITY...             
AND JUST ISOLD COVG YDAY WHEN CONDITIONS WERE MORE FVRBL...HAVE                 
OPTED TO KEEP FCST DRY EVEN THOUGH SOME MDT CU WL LIKELY DVLP UNDER             
STRENGTHENING MID LVL SUBSIDENCE INVRN. MIXING TO NR H7 ON ETA FCST             
SDNGS YIELDS TMAX IN THE LO 70S AWAY FM LK INFLUENCE. MORE OF A LLVL            
ACYC SW FLOW WL TEND TO RETARD LK BREEZE INFLUENCE/MODERATION.                  
TNGT WL BE TRANQUIL WITH RDG/DRY AIRMASS FCST TO REMAIN DOMINANT.               
WITH CONTD NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG...LINGERING CU             
SHOULD DSPT QUICKLY. A MORE STEADY WSW FLOW WL LIMIT DIURNAL DROP IN            
TEMP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN ZNS WHERE PRES GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO            
BE SHARPER FARTHER FM THE SFC HI CENTER OVER LWR MI.                            
SHRTWV RDG/DRY AIRMASS FCST TO LINGER OVER FA ON SUN...SO LOOK FOR A            
DRY DAY WITH AN ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI NOT FAR FM DET. GFS/ETA                
BOTH SHOW H85 TEMPS REACHING ARND 10C BY LATE IN THE DAY (ABOUT 1C              
HIER THAN TDAY). ETA FCST SDNGS FOR SUN AFTN LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO               
THOSE VALID FOR THIS AFTN... WITH A WELL MIXED BUT RATHER DRY PBL               
BLO SHARP MID LVL SUBSIDENCE INVRN. SOME POSITIVE AREA (FCST CAPE               
ARND 175 J/KG) WL ALLOW MORE DIURNAL CU DVLPMNT...BUT XPCT NO SHRA              
WITH SHARP INVRN/LO CAPE/DRY PBL. MIXING TO INVRN BASE NR H7 YIELDS             
TMAX APRCHG 75 AWAY FM LK INFLUENCE...WHICH WL AGAIN BE LIMITED BY              
THE WSW FLOW. IN FACT...HIEST TMAX MAY BE NEAR LK SUP IN AREAS THAT             
DOWNSLOPE OFF HURON MTNS WITH WSW FLOW.                                         
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TO TRACK INCOMING SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ALF                
FARTHER S SUN NGT/MON SO THAT RDG/DRIER AIR HOLDS IN LONGER OVER THE            
UPR GRT LKS. ALL MODEL QPF NOW HAS PCPN ARRIVAL DELAYED OVER THE FAR            
W UNTIL MON MRNG AND IN THE E UNTIL AT LEAST MON EVNG. CONSIDERING              
THE HI AMPLITUDE UPR FLOW IN PLACE...THINK THESE TRENDS ARE LOGICAL.            
HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN AT IWD UNTIL MON MRNG AND AT ERY UNTIL               
MON EVNG. CONSIDERING ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS...PASSAGE OF BEST DPVA/            
QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE S SUGS NO MORE THAN 30-40 POPS. ALTHOUGH                   
EXPLICIT MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES PCPN WL END SOONER THAN FCST NOW ON             
TUE...HAVE MADE NO CHGS ATTM DUE TO TREND FOR LATER ARRIVAL OF SHRA             
AND UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING INCOMING SHRTWVS IN NW FLOW ALF.                      
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
135 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)                                                             
THE AC DECK CONTINUED TO ERODE THIS MORNING.  WITH THE CLEARING                 
SKIES...THERE WILL BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE               
AT KCVG/KLUK WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE                  
LIKELY AT KCVG/KDAY/KILN/ KCMH WITH IFR VSBYS EXPECTED AT KLUK.                 
ETA CU RULE AND FCST SNDGS POINTING TO BKN CU TODAY WITH SKIES                  
CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                 
SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT)                                                     
STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SC/AC ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...BUT CLOUDS ARE            
CONTINUING TO THIN.  HAVE SEEN A FEW RENEGADE -SHRA UP NEAR                     
KFWA...AND MAY BE GETTING A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACRS WEST CNTRL OH.                 
HOWEVER...RADAR RETURNS ARE DECREASING AND LARGE AREA OF NVA NOTED              
ON RUC 500 MB PROG MOVNG IN FROM WEST...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN               
REST OF NIGHT.  CURRENT RUC DATA ALSO INDCG GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE             
TO HANG ON AT 700/850 MB LVLS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT.  WHILE CLOUDS                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS NIGHT                       
PROGRESSES...AM NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT              
ACRS FCST AREA.  HAVE ADJUSTED TO SKIES BECMG PTLY CLDY OVERNIGHT AS            
A RESULT.  STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE ENUF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS               
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS DAWN.  ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO BUMP                
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED.                    
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                    
H5 TROF REMAINS LOCKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WAITING FOR BONNIE AND              
CHARLEY TO CLEAR THE EAST COAST.  MUCH OF THE CU WEST OF CENTRAL                
INDIANA APPEARS CONVECTIVE AND EXPECT IT TO DRY QUICKLY AFTER                   
SUNSET.  THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES.                   
SKIES WILL CU AGAIN TOMORROW.  MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING ANOTHER               
H5 SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO THE TROF SAT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE                  
SWINGS ACROSS THE FA ON SUN...SO WILL GO WHICH LOW CHANCE POPS ON               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND SUNDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004                                 
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE                
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED. DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED EARLY NEXT                
WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE TSRA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY                
WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE            
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.                                           
AREA WILL BE UNDER A WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD SO            
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.                             
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
946 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON            
BAY ALL THE WAY S INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL                 
STEER HURRICANE CHARLEY UP THE ENTIRE ERN SEA BOARD. THE HURRICANE              
IS NEARING ITS THIRD LANDFALL THIS MORNING...ALONG THE SC COAST. A              
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS OUR SC GA AND FL BIG BEND ZONES.              
AREAS RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E OF THE            
BOUNDARY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING                 
ASHORE INTO THE ERN BIG BEND. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING.            
AREAS W OF THE FRONT SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY. POPS WILL BE LOWERED TO             
THE NW OF THE BOUNDARY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH SEAS OBSERVED            
OVER OUR WRN LEGS. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE COVERED THIS. NOW,                 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BOTH DIMINISHING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE                
THIS AFTERNOON. SO WE WILL BE ABLE TO PULL THE HEADLINE AT 1430Z. THE           
FRONT CONTINUES TO BISECT OUR ERN LEG, MAKING THE WIND FORECAST                 
TRICKIER THERE. THE LATEST RUC MAINTAINS NE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE               
DAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS              
AFTERNOON AND WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE.                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
SYNOPSIS...CHARLEY OFFSHORE OF JAX. STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED                  
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXTEND               
DOWN FROM CENTRAL GA THROUGH TLH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF            
OF MEXICO.                                                                      
SHORT TERM...STATIONARY FRONT STAYS WITH US FOR THE MOST PART...                
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE TO OCCUR WITH THE            
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNTIL MIDWEEK...THAT IS...RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A             
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT THO BEFORE                
SEVERAL PULSES BEGIN TO MOVE OUR WAY AT MIDWEEK. WILL REFLECT AN                
EAST TO WEST VARIATION IN WEATHER...POPS AND SKY DUE TO THE FRONT.              
LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 87 67 89 68 / 30 10 20 10                                                   
PFN 86 68 88 72 / 20 10 10 10                                                   
DHN 85 64 88 68 / 10 10 00 00                                                   
ABY 86 66 90 68 / 20 10 10 00                                                   
VLD 87 69 88 68 / 30 10 30 10                                                   
CTY 87 69 87 70 / 40 20 40 20                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WATSON (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)                                                    
WOOL (CURRENT DISCUSSION)                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
820 AM MDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PATCHY FOG HAS WORKED INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES...MAINLY ALONG              
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON TO KIT CARSON WHICH SHOULD                     
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. WILL ALSO REMOVE MENTION OF                 
MORNING POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AS ACITIVITY APPEARS TO REMAIN            
EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTH PLATTE TO HOLDREDGE TO AROUND SMITH CENTER.           
NO CHANGE TO AFTERNOON WORDING AT THIS POINT...WITH ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST THREAT ALONG AND            
WEST OF THE KANSAS COLORADO BORDER.                                             
MWM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
215 AM MDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN AROUND PLACEMENT AND                                 
CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER/POP FORECAST AS A SLOW WARMUP CONTINUES ACROSS            
THE AREA.                                                                       
AT 0800Z CONVECTIVE CELLS HAD BEGUN OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES                 
AND POINTS SOUTH. CURRENT 06Z ETA AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUN AND THE                
CURRENT RUC CONTINUE TO GENERATE A BIT MORE COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN           
1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE ELEVATED CIN VALUES ARE LEAST AND MID LEVEL               
MOISTURE THE HIGHEST. THE 09Z FORECAST FROM THE ADJAVN GUIDANCE HAD             
THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY PRETTY WELL SO USED IT FOR THE SHORT TERM.                
TODAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREAS                   
WEATHER UNDERNEATH A WEST COAST RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS               
NECK OF THE WORLD KIND OF CAUGHT IN BETWEEN WITH VARYING INTENSITIES            
OF 850 WARMING BY THE MODELS. FOR TODAY THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT               
WITH A GENERAL 1-3F WARMUP FROM FRIDAYS READINGS. FOR SUNDAY THE                
ETA/UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THEIR 850 WARMING WHEN COMPARED TO             
THE GFS/ECMWF AND NGM. AVERAGING THE GFS/ETA/NGM GIVES A WARMUP OF 4-           
7F FROM SATURDAYS EXPECTED READINGS. THIS AVERAGING OF THE 850                  
WARMUP ALSO MATCHES THE MAV/FWC/ETA MOS GUIDANCE WARMUP AS WELL SO              
WILL LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.                                                 
AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES...GREATEST INSTABILITY AND LESS CIN AS WELL            
AS 850/700 THETA-E AXIS AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE FROM THE                 
NORTHWEST FAVOR MOSTLY OUR COLORADO COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE             
DAY TODAY. AS THIS WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS OVER           
THE AREA. ETA 850-700 CIN VALUES ARE WEAKEST OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF            
OUR AREA WHICH MATCHES ITS QPF FORECAST PRETTY WELL...MOSTLY AFTER              
06Z. THINGS HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT IF THE ETA                  
TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH THEN THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY NOT BE MET.             
SURFACE AND 850-700 CIN AS WELL AS 700-500 MOISTURE WOULD AGAIN                 
FAVOR THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA.                                              
SUNDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA WITH              
PRETTY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FROM THE ETA/GFS. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES                
ONLY ABOUT 0-3MB SO THEIR ISNT A GREAT PUSH BEHIND IT. WILL KEEP                
SOME SMALL POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.                                          
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING ISSUES ON WHEN/HOW FAR THE FRONT              
GETS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE ETA A BIT STRONGER PER ITS NORTHEAST             
WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE AREA. GFS HAS THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER                 
NORTH. EITHER WAY...EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG                
THE BOUNDARY WHEREVER IT MAY SHOW UP. WILL TEND TO THINK THAT FOR               
NOW WILL COMPROMISE WITH A MCCOOK TO GOODLAND TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE            
AND POINTS SOUTH OF IT (NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION).                    
TEMPERATURES AT 850 CONTINUE TO WARM DESPITE THE NORTHEAST WINDS                
WITH A GENERAL 2F (KITR) TO 10F (KHLC) WARMUP PER ETA/GFS 850                   
TEMPERATURES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS AS WELL             
AND ISNT ALL THAT FAR OFF FROM THE VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.                
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST GFS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS                
RUN...ADVERTISING A LARGE CHUNK OF THE UPPER LOW IN ALASKA TO MOVE              
SOUTH AND/OR SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY GIVEN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS A             
GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN. GIVEN            
THE LACK OF DETAILS AND THE IMPACT OF RUNNING WITH ONE RUN VS                   
ANOTHER WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS. IT DOES LOOK HOWEVER                 
THAT WE REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.                                   
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1132 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                     
.UPDATED...                                                                     
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR AFTERNOON WORDING. MORE OR LESS THE                
GOING FORECAST SEEMS FINE TO ME. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ISOLATED                 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F SEEMS THE WAY TO GO FOR THIS              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES SHOW WELL HOW THERE            
IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MOISTURE NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 BELOW            
700 MB (COMPARE DTX 12Z SOUNDING TO APX AND GRB).  THE ETA AND RUC              
AGREE THAT A 500 CLOSED LOW WILL TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER SRN LK                   
MICHIGAN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. THEN IT WILL DRIFT EVER SO SLOWLY                 
TOWARD THE DETROIT AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY AND TO PORT HURON BY 00Z                  
MONDAY. THIS PUTS THE SOUTHERN PART OF LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE Q                  
VECTOR CONVERGENCE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE THIS            
IS ALSO THE AREA WITH THE SFC TO 700 MB DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...IT             
IS ALSO THE AREA WITH LOWEST LI VALUES AND HIGHEST EQUILIBRIUM                  
LEVELS. PROBLEM IS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR                 
(VELOCITY ONLY 5 TO 10 KTS) NEAR 700MB. LIKE NORTHEAST BELOW 700MB              
AND SOUTHWEST ABOVE 700MB. SO...BELIEVE THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY THING             
IS FINE AS IS THE ISOLATED SHOWERS (CAPES WITH 74/47 NEAR LAN ARE               
LESS THAN 100 J/KG).                                                            
BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FIELDS...HIGH BETWEEN 68 AND 74F SEEM              
FINE FOR OUR CWA TODAY.                                                         
TONIGHT MID CLOUDS COULD REDEVELOP AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT AS THE                
LOWER LEVEL COOL AND THE 500 LOW CREATES MID LEVEL LIFT OVER THE SRN            
CWA. WILL HAVE TO LOOK MORE AT THAT FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...IT             
COULD ALLOW THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY WARMER OVER THE SRN CWA.               
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
920 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...REVISITED GRIDS/WORDS TO REMOVE FOG VERBIAGE. REMAINDER OF            
FIRST PERIOD FORECAST LOOKS QUITE SATISFACTORY. DID TWEAK MAX T GRID            
UPWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES GIVEN AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED TODAY AS                
WELL AS BASED ON LATEST 850HPA THERMAL PROGS IN RUC MODEL. ALSO                 
TWEAKED HOURLY TEMP/DWPT/RH/WIND GRIDS.    DORN                                 
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                        
BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.                         
A LITTLE PATCH FOG HAS APPEARED THIS MORNING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL              
COOLING. SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE AND WILL GO WITH SOME               
PATCHY DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.                                     
NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIP THREAT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF AND                 
ASSOCIATED FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ETA AND GFS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH            
ONSET...BUT DIFFER GREATLY WITH ENDING TIMES. ETA HINTS AT A FAIRLY             
WELL BEHAVED DIURNAL TREND...WITH MOST CONVECTION ENDING BY 06UTC               
MONDAY AND A FEW LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 12                
UTC. GFS SHOWS A MUCH LONGER EVENT...WITH PRECIP INDICATED                      
THROUGHOUT MUCH ON THE DAY ON MONDAY. GIVEN SPEED OF UPPER TROF AND             
SURFACE FRONT...WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST TIMING WHICH REFLECTS AN             
ETA SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS INDICATE PRIMARY TYPE WILL BE CONVECTIVE              
WITH NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND SURFACE BASED CAPE ON THE                 
ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. SPC DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA GRABS A GOOD PORTION             
OF EASTERN CWA AS WELL. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...HAVE UPPED POPS TO             
40 IN EASTERN CWA. WHILE STILL IN CHANCE CATEGORY AS IN PREVIOUS                
FORECAST...WANTED TO SHOW INCREASING CONFIDENT TREND IN PRECIP EVENT.           
DID NOT MAKE ANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.                 
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO            
SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN CANADA/HUDSON BAY             
REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN            
PLAINS. ALL THE SIGNIFICANT ENERGY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE                    
AREA...WITH JUST ONE WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE              
LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MUCH SLOWER TIMING WITH THE SURFACE                  
FRONT...NOW LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF               
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS OF                       
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND NOT CHANGE THE TIMING FOR NOW...AS THIS IS              
THE FIRST MODEL RUN TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THAT MUCH LATER. WILL            
ALSO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.                                      
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                                  
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HARDING/PARKIN                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
200 PM MDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ATMOSPHERIC MIX SLOWLY COMING TOGETHER FOR             
WHAT APPEARS MAY BE AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE              
FRONT RANGE...PALMER DIVIDE AND OUT ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS OF                   
COLORADO. MODIFICATION OF THE LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS OVER AND AROUND            
DENVER CRANKED OUT ICAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-2400 J/KG RANGE...BASED             
ON A PARCEL OF 81F/55F...WITH 80F THE CONVECTIVE TEMP FOR DENVER                
METRO AREA TODAY. CONVECTION GOING UP OVER THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD               
SEE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THEY TRACK SEWRD OVER THE I-25 URBAN                 
CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST/NORTHEAST                  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO DEEPEN BUT NOT NECESSARILY STRENGTHEN.                
THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE HIGHER THETA-E VALUES UP ALONG THE            
FOOTHILLS AND MONUMENT RIDGE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE DRAINAGE             
FLOW DRIES THINGS OUT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS                
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN URBAN CORRIDOR...THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS             
AND THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.               
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAIN             
THREAT LOOKS LOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.60 INCH AND             
STORM MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS.                                              
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE DENVER METRO AREA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE A               
FEW DEGS HIGHER...ALREADY SEEING LOW TOP CONVECTION GOING UP ALONG A            
WIND SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING N-S ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS...EASTERN                    
ARAPAHOE AND CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTIES THIS HOUR...PRETTY MUCH THE                
SAME AREA BLANKETED BY FOG AND LOW STRATUS THROUGH MID-MORNING. RUC             
AND ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL CAP AROUND 550              
MB OVER THIS AREA AS OF 18Z...BUT SUSPECT ONCE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE             
MID 70S...SHOULD SEE MULTICELL T-STORM FORMATION ALONG THIS SHEAR               
AXIS. ONCE STORMS GET GOING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP SPAWN A               
COUPLE SUPER CELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST            
WINDS.                                                                          
TONIGHT...ACTION AREA APPEARS TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE               
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. MODEL SFC BNDRY LAYER               
CAPE VALUES UP AROUND 2500 J/KG AND MODEL SOUNDING HELICITY VALUES              
APPROACHING 110 M2/S2 AS OF 03Z. FURTHERMORE WEAK MID-LEVEL                     
DISTURBANCE RACING OUT OF WY SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR                 
SEVERE T-STORM FORMATION. WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THIS CONVECTION TO               
END SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO DRYING AND STABILIZATION AT                      
MID-LEVELS. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS            
OF THE NERN PLAINS AS WELL.                                                     
SUNDAY...AFTER A START OF LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ON THE                    
PLAINS...SHOULD SEE RAPID WARMING WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW ALOFT MIXING             
DOWN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS...EAST            
OF THE LEE TROUGH...SFC GRIDS STILL KEEP DEW POINTS UP IN THE 50S.              
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO GENERATE SOME IMPRESSIVE CAPES AFTER                       
21Z...GENERALLY IN THE 1600-2100 J/KG RANGE. BUT MID-LEVELS LOOK                
PRETTY CAPPED DURING THE DAY. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                   
T-STORMS LATE IN ALL AREAS...BUT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS             
QUITE LOW. TEMPS TOMORROW MAYBE A FEW DEGS ABOVE THOSE TODAY.                   
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SUN NGT-TUE...MDLS KEEP NWLY FLO ALF ACRS               
CNTRL RCKYS THRU PRD.  ON SUN EVE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE NR NE                
CORNER WHERE CAPES ARE HIEST BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHW WK CIN.  HWVR               
ETA SHWS MST OF PCPN OVR URBAN CORRIDOR.  WILL KEEP ISOLD STORMS                
IN FCST FOR NOW.  FOR MON AFTN AND EVE FCST CAPES ARE LO WITH AS                
SFC HI PRES MOVES S INTO NERN PLAINS.  MDLS SHW QUITE A BIT OF                  
PCPN WITH THIS CDFNT...BUT AIR MASS MAY BCM CAPPED SO WILL KEEP                 
POPS LO.  ON TUE GFS BLOWS UP SFC LO OVR GRT BASIN AND MOVES IT                 
INTO WRN CO.  THIS FEATURE IS NOT APPARENT ON ETA.  MSTR AND PCPN               
ACRS AREA IS OVERBLOWN ON GFS AS ETA SOLUTION LUKS MORE REASONABLE.             
WILL INCRS POPS TO SCT ON TUE AFT AND EVE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER                
ON MON IN ADV OF CDFNT AND COOLER OVR PLAINS ON TUE.  GENLY FVR                 
THE GFS MOS TEMP GUIDANCE.                                                      
IN EXTENDED PERIOD...WED-SAT...MDLS MAINTAIN UPR RDG OVR WRN U.S.               
WITH PERSISTENT NWLY FLO ALF ACRS CNTRL RCKYS.  GFS SHOWS AMPLE                 
MOISTURE AND PCPN ACRS AREA FOR A CHC OF AFTN AND EVE CONVECTION                
EACH DAY.  TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO SEASONAL NORMS.                           
&&                                                                              
.BOU...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
BAKER/GARD...WFO BOULDER                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.CURRENTLY...SKIES RANGE FROM SUNNY NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SE SECTIONS             
OF CWFA. TEMPS IN LOW 80S...DEW POINTS FROM AROUND 60 SE ALA TO LOW             
70S SE BIG BEND. WINDS FROM N 5-10 MPH SE ALA TO E 5 MPH SE BIG                 
BEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS DIXIE COUNTY BUT MOIST                 
PRECIP HAS BEEN SHUNTED SEWD OF OUR CWFA.                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...LARGE AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE CONTS FORM ERN MOST CANADA              
S INTO GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING SWLY STEERING FLOW. CHARLEY HAS                 
WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES N/NE NEAR 30 MPH OVER N                
CAROLINA. NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CHARLEY              
TO ACROSS NE FLA AND INTO SE MOST SECTIONS OF SE BIG BEND. N OF THE             
FRONT..HIGH PRESSURE AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR BUILDING IN RAPIDLY               
SEWD. SATTELITE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND BACK            
SIDE OF CHARLEY. THE TROUGH AND HI POSITIONS EXPLAIN THE                        
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CONTRASTS NOTED ABOVE. FORECAST QUESTION IS                 
FUTURE POSITION OF FRONT/TROF AND HOW MUCH OF CWFA REMAINS IN WARM              
SECTOR. WITH CHARLEY MOVING OUT..LACK OF PUSH FOR TROF..AND GUIDANCE            
SHOWS BOUNDARY DRIFTING E AND THEN BACK W NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS                 
DIFFER NOTICEABLY WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SHIFTING FRONT               
BACK WWD PLACING MORE OF OUR AREA IN WARM SECTOR/SW LO LEVEL FLOW.              
HARD TO JUSTIFY GFS SCT-LIKELY POPS AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS DRIER ETA.            
THUS FIVE ZONE ZFP WITH FLA DIVIDED W-E WITH WDLY SCT-MID SCT BREAK             
NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...UPR TROF TO FINALLY LIFT NEWD WITH RIDGING MOVING EWD              
OVER ERN CONUS MID-WEEK. TIME TO LOOK EWD AT TD FIVE..POSITION                  
BRINGS IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND INTO NW CARIB DAY 5. TRACK LOOKS            
OMINOUSLY LIKE BONNIE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LOCAL GRADIENTS CONT TO WEAKEN. AFTERNOON BUOYS SHOW WINDS            
UP TO 4 FEET AND 10 KNOT SEAS OUTER WATER..LESS NEARSHORE. WILL CONT            
W/E SPLIT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS ERN WATERS IN               
WAKE OF CHARLEY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...NO CONCERNS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 68 90 69 90/10 30 10 30                                                     
PFN 69 88 73 89/05 10 10 20                                                     
DHN 63 87 66 89/05 00 00 20                                                     
ABY 67 89 66 91/10 10 05 20                                                     
VLD 70 88 69 90/10 30 10 30                                                     
CTY 71 88 70 90/30 50 30 40                                                     
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BLOCK                                                                           
____________________________________________________________________            
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
946 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A LARGE AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HUDSON            
BAY ALL THE WAY S INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL                 
STEER HURRICANE CHARLEY UP THE ENTIRE ERN SEA BOARD. THE HURRICANE              
IS NEARING ITS THIRD LANDFALL THIS MORNING...ALONG THE SC COAST. A              
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS OUR SC GA AND FL BIG BEND ZONES.              
AREAS RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E OF THE            
BOUNDARY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING                 
ASHORE INTO THE ERN BIG BEND. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING.            
AREAS W OF THE FRONT SHOULD STAY DRY TODAY. POPS WILL BE LOWERED TO             
THE NW OF THE BOUNDARY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SENT AN EARLY UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH SEAS OBSERVED            
OVER OUR WRN LEGS. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE COVERED THIS. NOW,                 
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BOTH DIMINISHING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE                
THIS AFTERNOON. SO WE WILL BE ABLE TO PULL THE HEADLINE AT 1430Z.               
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BISECT OUR ERN LEG, MAKING THE WIND FORECAST             
TRICKIER THERE. THE LATEST RUC MAINTAINS NE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE               
DAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS              
AFTERNOON AND WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE.                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
SYNOPSIS...CHARLEY OFFSHORE OF JAX. STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED                  
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXTEND               
DOWN FROM CENTRAL GA THROUGH TLH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF            
OF MEXICO.                                                                      
SHORT TERM...STATIONARY FRONT STAYS WITH US FOR THE MOST PART...                
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE TO OCCUR WITH THE            
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNTIL MIDWEEK...THAT IS...RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A             
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT THO BEFORE                
SEVERAL PULSES BEGIN TO MOVE OUR WAY AT MIDWEEK. WILL REFLECT AN                
EAST TO WEST VARIATION IN WEATHER...POPS AND SKY DUE TO THE FRONT.              
LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 87 67 89 68 / 30 10 20 10                                                   
PFN 86 68 88 72 / 20 10 10 10                                                   
DHN 85 64 88 68 / 10 10 00 00                                                   
ABY 86 66 90 68 / 20 10 10 00                                                   
VLD 87 69 88 68 / 30 10 30 10                                                   
CTY 87 69 87 70 / 40 20 40 20                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WATSON (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)                                                    
WOOL (CURRENT DISCUSSION)                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
328 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS PCPN POTENTIAL SUN-TUE.                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE PERSISTING N THRU               
THE ROCKIES TO ALASKA AND TROF EXTENDING FROM THE NPOLE S ACROSS ERN            
NAMERICA. NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS DIVING SE THRU NRN                      
SASKATCHEWAN. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING SE               
INTO THE NW TERRITORIES AS STRONG WRN RIDGE BUILDS EVEN FARTHER N.              
BY MID/LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE STRONG WRN RIDGE WILL RESULT             
IN AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AUG POLAR VORTEX DEVELOPING VCNTY OF HUDSON                
BAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES IS DOMINATING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY            
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SASKATCHEWAN               
SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM NRN MANITOBA THRU CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN.                    
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION OF SASKATCHEWAN                     
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME...             
A TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS FCST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE                
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES. WAA REMAINS FOCUSED WELL TO THE NW AND N...             
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OTHER THAN SOME CI              
SPILLING SE. GOING MIN TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE...RANGING FROM MID 40S              
INTERIOR CNTRL/E TO LOW/MID 50S W WHERE LIGHT SW FLOW DEVELOPS.                 
ON SUN...SW FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.                
EVEN SO...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION IS INDICATED             
OVER UPPER MI. BEST WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION REMAINS TO THE NW. IN                 
ADDITION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS OVER UPPER MI...AND ETA FCST                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR LINGERING. ALL THIS ARGUES FOR A CONTINUED               
DRY FCST. THIS BACKED BY VERY LOW MOS POPS FROM THE MODELS...ALL                
UNDER 10. MIXING TO UPWARDS OF 800-750MB YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID                
70S...INLINE WITH VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE AND GOING FCST.                          
MID SHIFT PUSHED PCPN CHC BACK SUN NIGHT/MON AS TREND WAS FOR                   
SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE AND MAIN FORCING TO TRACK FARTHER S THAN E.              
THIS TREND HAS HELD UP WITH 12Z RUNS. RESULT IS DRY AIR HOLDING ON              
LONGER PER GFS AND ESPECIALLY ETA FCST SOUNDINGS. BULK OF THETA-E               
ADVECTION GETS HELD UP TO THE SW. AT THIS POINT...SEE NO REASON TO              
DEVIATE FROM GOING FCST WHICH BRINGS PCPN CHC INTO FAR W EARLY MON              
MORNING AND NOT REACHING E UNTIL EVENING.                                       
LATER MON/TUE...SFC BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES THRU              
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS IS A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
DROPPING SE TOWARD THE AREA IN STRENGTHENING NW FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN             
LOW END CHC POPS DURING THIS TIME UNTIL BOUNDARY MOVES E OF THE AREA            
TUE.                                                                            
WED-SAT...MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD AND                
INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE TOO                          
AGGRESSIVE/QUICK WITH THE COOL DOWN MID WEEK. AGREEMENT IS GOOD ON A            
DEEP UNAUGUST-LIKE POLAR VORTEX DEVELOPING VCNTY HUDSON BAY AS                  
ANOMALOUS HIGH HEIGHTS SPREAD ACROSS THE ARCTIC...ALMOST BRIDGING               
FROM ALASKA TO GREENLAND. AS POLAR VORTEX STRENGTHENS/DROPS S                   
MIDWEEK...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO ONTARIO/MN LATE WED...                   
CROSSING UPPER MI EARLY THU. MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD                    
AGREEMENT ON THIS TIMING. HOWEVER...12Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER...               
WITH FROPA NOW ON WED EVENING AND THEN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUN IN              
ITS WAKE. 12Z UKMET HAS MAINTAINED TIMING FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND              
HPC HAS KEPT WITH A THU MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE HERE. WILL NOT JUMP             
ON 12Z GFS...BUT IT WILL BE A TREND TO MONITOR IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.            
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLIP IN A DRY WED DAYTIME WITH FRONT STILL WELL TO            
THE W. THERMAL RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPS 14C OR BETTER PUSHING INTO                
UPPER MI WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SEND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL               
WED. SEE NO PROBLEM RAISING TEMPS TOWARD 80 MANY AREAS. WILL BRING              
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU WITH COLD FRONT. FRI-SAT...             
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE PCPN CHANCES AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE             
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME IN CYCLONIC FLOW            
ON SRN EDGE OF LARGE POLAR VORTEX TO THE N. TEMPS WILL TREND BELOW              
NORMAL FRI/SAT...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AS AREA IS ONLY BRUSHED BY               
SRN EDGE OF COLD AIR MASS. IN ADDITION...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 850MB                
TEMPS RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL GFS RUN.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
320 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL              
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION            
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PLEASANT                    
WEATHER. THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH              
SCHEDULED TO APPROACH WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY. SATELLITE             
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY ABOUT 57 DEGREES NORTH AND 112              
DEGREES WEST. THE RUC MODEL SHOWS MUCH LOWER TROP HEIGHTS WITH THIS             
FEATURE THAN THE LONGER RANGE ETA OR GFS MODELS DO. SUSPECT IT WILL             
BE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST LIFT AND MID               
LEVEL FORCING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ABOUT MIDNIGHT...SUNDAY             
NIGHT BUT THE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.              
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE ETA MODEL MONDAY                   
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THINK THERE WILL BE TWO                
CONVECTIVE EVENTS TO FOCUS ON. ONE ERUPTING SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS                 
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE SECOND MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD             
OF THE SURFACE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL              
TROUGH.                                                                         
LONGER TERM...TUE NGT THRU SAT...                                               
LATEST...14/00Z...GFS RUN AS WELL AS 12Z RUN CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN             
THE COLD FRNT MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA IN THE WED/THU PD.                         
THUS...HAVE UPPED TEMPS SOMEWHAT AND DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP ABOUT              
12 HOURS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn