ESTIMATES OF EMIGRATION OF THE
               FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION:  1980-1990

                               by

              Bashir Ahmed and J. Gregory Robinson

                       Population Division
                    U.S. Bureau of the Census
                      Washington, DC  20233
                          301-763-2461

                          December 1994

                  Technical Working Paper No. 9



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ESTIMATES OF EMIGRATION OF THE FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION: 1980-1990

                               by

              Bashir Ahmed and J. Gregory Robinson


                            ABSTRACT

     This paper attempts to develop estimates of emigration of
the foreign-born population at the national level based on the
numbers of foreign-born persons enumerated in the 1980 and 1990
censuses.  The methodology employed here is a residual technique
in which the counted population is subtracted from the expected
population to obtain the amount of emigration and emigration
rates.  The total amount of emigration of the foreign-born
population was about 195,000 per year during 1980-1990.  The new
estimate, which is about 47 percent higher than the current level
of 133,000 per year, is consistent with the recent increase in
immigration.  Of the 1980 foreign-born stock, the highest
emigration rate was for the cohort of 1970-1979 (19 percent),
followed by the 1960-1969 (9 percent) and the before 1960 cohorts
(7 percent).  The age pattern of emigration shows a declining
trend by age for both males and females.  The pattern is similar
for all races.
The emigration rates for non-Hispanic Whites and the Asian and
Pacific Islander population hovered around 10 to 11 percent.  The
emigration rates for Blacks and Hispanics were 14 percent and 7
percent, respectively.  The low emigration rate for Hispanics was
probably because of the same reasons for which Hispanic
immigration is high (e.g., relative difference in economic and
social conditions at origin and destination countries).  The high
rate for Blacks was because of high rate for the 1970-1979 cohort
and relatively larger proportion of Blacks who came recently.

ESTIMATES OF EMIGRATION OF THE FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION: 1980-1990


                        1.  INTRODUCTION

     The Bureau of the Census assumes a fixed amount of
emigration of foreign-born persons, 133,000 per year, for its
current population estimates and projections (e.g., Day, 1993;
Hollmann, 1993).  The distribution of the total amount of
emigration by age, sex, and race is based on the 1980 census
distribution of foreign-born persons who entered during 1975-
1979.  The Bureau's current assumed level is an extrapolation of
emigration levels developed by Warren and Peck (1980) for 1960-
1970, and by Warren and Passel (1987) for 1970-1980.  The Warren-
Peck estimates were based on analyses of the foreign-born
populations counted in the 1960 and 1970 censuses and the number
of immigrants that entered during 1960-1970.  The Warren-Passel
estimates were based on analyses of alien registration data
collected by Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) for
1965-1980.  Neither of these studies, however, produced
emigration rates by detailed demographic characteristics (e.g.,
age, sex, race, country of birth and year of entry) that could be
used in simulating emigration in the future.  In a more recent
study, Woodrow (1991) estimated emigration levels for the 1980s,
using data from multiplicity sample surveys.  Although the
Woodrow estimates contain the Bureau's current assumed level,
they are less valuable for calculation of rates or distribution
by characteristics because of small samples of respondents with
emigrant relatives.

     Are the current emigration assumptions sustainable for the
rest of the 1990s and beyond?  Can we keep assuming that the
amount and characteristics of emigrants will not vary with
changes in the amount and characteristics of recent immigrants,
especially their age and country of origin?  The Bureau's
population estimates and projections and census coverage
estimates are likely to be biased to the extent the level and
characteristics of emigrants are changing.  To ensure the quality
of population estimates and projections and census coverage
estimates, development of new estimates of emigration, or better
yet, emigration rates, is warranted.

     This paper attempts to develop estimates of emigration of
the foreign-born population at the national level based on the
numbers of foreign-born persons enumerated in the 1980 and 1990
censuses.  The methodology employed here is a residual technique
in which the counted population is subtracted from the expected
population to obtain the amount of emigration and emigration
rates.  The paper first develops 10-year emigration rates (and
levels) of foreign-born persons who were resident in 1980 (stock
data) and then uses these rates to obtain emigration levels of
those who came during 1980-1990 (flow data).  This is the first
time that emigration rates have been produced by detailed
characteristics, such as age, sex, race, country of birth and
year of entry.  

     The next section--Section 2--describes the residual
technique employed in the analysis.  It also focuses on the
grouping of countries by race-ethnicity, and the selection of
life table survival rates which are essential in producing the
expected 1990 population.  Section 3 evaluates the quality of
census data on the foreign-born population from the perspective
of its utility for estimating emigration.  Section 4 presents the
estimated numbers of emigrants and emigration rates.  The last
section summarizes the main findings and discusses the
development of alternative sets of emigration levels. 


                         2.  METHODOLOGY

Residual Technique

     Both the 1980 and 1990 censuses collected information on
foreign-born persons by detailed characteristics, including their
year of entry.  The residual technique employed in this analysis
starts with two sets of foreign-born populations from these
censuses on a cohort basis.  The first or initial population is
the foreign-born that came to the United States before 1980 and
was enumerated in the 1980 census.  This population is carried
forward to 1990 to produce an expected 1990 population.  The
second or final population is the foreign-born that also came to
the United States before 1980, but was enumerated in the 1990
census.  If the population remains closed, that is, nobody ever
dies or moves in or moves out, then the final population should
be equal to the initial population.  However, mortality always
takes its toll and international migration not only occurs but is
increasing.  Note that by fixing the period of entry at "before
1980" we have eliminated the component "moving in", and are left
with the components "moving out" or emigration and mortality. 
The final population then can be represented as follows:

editor's note: dates are subscripted
          P1990 = P1980 - D1980-1990 - E1980-1990             (1)

where P1990 = the foreign-born population that came before 1980
and was enumerated in 1990, P1980 = the foreign-born population
that came before 1980 and was enumerated in 1980, D1980-1990 = the
number of deaths that occurred to P1980 during 1980-1990, and E1980-
1990 = the number of foreign-born persons who left  during 1980-
1990.  By rearranging equation (1), we get:

          E1980-1990 = (P1980 - D1980-1990) - P1990           (2)

or,       E1980-1990 = S1990 -  P1990                         (3)
where S1990 is the expected or survived number of foreign-born
persons after adjusting for mortality.  S1990 can also be obtained
by directly multiplying P1980 by 10-year life table survival
rates; this is further discussed later in this section.

     Equation (3) gives us the amount of emigration during 1980-
1990 out of the initial stock, P1980, that is, the foreign-born
population that came before 1980 and was enumerated in 1990.  The
10-year emigration rate is obtained by (E1980-1990/P1980) and the
yearly emigration rate by 1/10*(E1980-1990/P1980).  These rates can be
estimated by age, sex, race, year of entry and country of birth
of the foreign-born population.

     Equation (3) cannot be used directly to estimate emigration
of the foreign-born population that came during 1980-1990 for it
depends on expected (or initial) and final populations.  Note
that the foreign-born population that came during 1980-1990 and
was enumerated in the 1990 census is the final population, not
the initial one.  We can estimate the initial population from the
following equation which is similar to equation (1):

     P#1990 = P1980-1990 - P1980-1990*e - P1980-1990*(1-s)    (4)

where P#1990 = the foreign-born population that came during 1980-
1990 and was enumerated in 1990 (stock data), P1980-1990 = the
foreign-born population that came during 1980-1990 and was
subject to both mortality and emigration (flow data), e =
emigration rate, and          s = survival rate.  By simplifying
equation (4), we get:

          P#1990 = P1980-1990*[(1-e) - (1-s)]                 (5)

or,       P1980-1990 = P#1990/(s-e)                           (6)

Equation (6) will hold true if s > e.  If P#1990, s and e are
known, we can estimate P1980-1990 by using equation (6) and the
amount of emigration during 1980-1990 by P1980-1990*e.

     Note that both e and s pertain to the average number of
years that P1980-1990 was expected to stay during the 1980-1990
period.  Because P1980-1990 was not directly available, we estimated
the average length of stay by using the proportions of P1990 that
entered during the periods 1980-1981, 1982-1984, 1985-1986 and
1987-1990, and the length of the interval from the mid-point of
each period to April 1, 1990.  The average length of stay was
estimated by age, sex and race.

     Also note that both e and s refer to the initial
population's average age at time of entry.  The average age at
entry during 1980-1990 can be estimated by subtracting the
average length of stay from the average age of the final
population in 1990.


Limitations

     The emigration estimates developed with these models are
subject to the following assumptions:  (1) both the  1980 and
1990 foreign-born population data were accurately enumerated or
had the same rate of coverage, (2) information on year of entry
and country of birth was accurate and consistently reported in
both censuses, and (3) the life tables selected for estimating
the number of deaths are appropriate.  No direct evidence on the
extent of coverage of the foreign-born population in the United
States censuses exists.  Although it is possible that the
coverage of the foreign-born may differ by country of birth, it
is resonable to assume that for a particular country the extent
of coverage would remain the same over time.  As for year of
entry, we are not aware of any systematic research that says the
information collected was inaccurate.  For both 1980 and 1990,
the foreign-born populations with unknown countries of birth were
allocated to known countries.  Finally, the life table survival
rates selected for estimating the number of deaths seem to be
reasonable (see the discussion on life table selection).



Grouping of Countries by Race

     Tabulated 1980 census data on the foreign-born population,
in age-sex-period of entry detail, are available for 40 mutually
exclusive major countries or areas:  10 areas are from North and
Central America, 5 from South America, 13 from Europe, 9 from
Asia, one from Africa (Africa as a whole), and 2 from Oceania. 
Tabulated 1990 census data on the foreign-born population, in
demographic detail, are available for 111 countries of birth. 
For comparison purposes, we recoded the 111 countries to the 40
areas available from 1980.  

     Estimation of emigration rates should be based on large
enough data sets to ensure the stability of the rates while still
reflecting some regional or race-ethnic patterns.  For our
purposes, we divided the 40 countries into 4 race groups as
follows:
          Race                       Countries
         Hispanic                    Mexico, Cuba, Dominican Republic, 
                                     El Salvador, Guatemala, Other North
                                     and Central America, Argentina,
                                     Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Other South
                                     America, Spain

        Non-Hispanic White           Canada, France, Germany, Greece,
                                     Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland,
                                     Portugal, USSR, United Kingdom,
                                     Yugoslavia, Other Europe, Iran,
                                     Israel, Other Middle East, Australia
        Black                        Haiti, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago,
                                     Africa
       Asian and 
       Pacific Islander               China, India, Japan, Korea,
                                      Philippines, Other South and East               
                                      Asia, Other Oceania
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     Although Other North and Central America and Other South
America contain countries which are non-Hispanic, they were
grouped with Hispanic countries in the 1980 tabulations.  This
grouping seems to be justifiable based on the 1990 census data on
Hispanic origin (see Table A1).


Life Table Selection

     Ideally, one should use average survival rates obtained from
the 1979-1981 and 1989-1991 decennial life tables for surviving
the 1980 foreign-born to 1990.  Although the 1979-1981 life
tables are available by race, they are not available for non-
Hispanic Whites, Asian and Pacific Islanders or Hispanics.  The
National Center for Health Statistics has not yet published the
1989-1991 life tables by race.  For internal use, the Census
Bureau's population projections staff developed life tables for
all races in 1990, and for Hispanics in 1980.  Using these tables
and assuming that the life tables for Whites in 1979-1981 would
approximate those for non-Hispanic Whites and Asian and Pacific
Islanders in 1980, we calculated the average survival rates in
1985 (see Table A2).  

     As expected, the 1985 rates lie between the 1980 and 1990
rates for most age groups.  As shown by their ratios, the 1990
survival rates are slightly higher than 1985 rates.  The ratios
are generally higher for older age groups, reflecting greater
reduction in mortality in older ages.  The ratios are very high
for Asian and Pacific Islanders in ages 55 and above.  The
disproportionately higher ratios for this population may
originate directly from the life table assumptions.  Recall that
we took the 1979-1981 White life tables for Asian and Pacific
Islanders in 1980.  Because White survival rates are usually
lower than the Asian and Pacific Islanders (see 1990 survival
rates for these groups), the average of the 1990 and 1980 rates
was lower than expected and hence the ratio of 1990 to 1985 was
higher than expected.
     
     The anomalies in the 1985 survival rates led us to choose
1990 rates over 1985.  Our choice was also guided by another
reason.  Theoretically, the estimated total number of deaths is
the sum of deaths in the United States and deaths after
emigration.  This means that part of the deaths should be added
back to the number of emigrants.  If we do not do this
adjustment, the number of deaths would be overestimated and
emigration underestimated, especially at older ages.  Because we
are not aware of any other robust procedure to accomplish this
adjustment, we opted for using higher survival rates as provided
by the 1990 schedule.


                       3.  DATA EVALUATION

     Table 1 shows the differences between the expected and the
counted foreign-born populations for the selected 40 countries or
areas of birth.  Ideally, under the given assumptions, the
difference (1990 expected minus 1990 counted) should be positive
for each country because it is a measure of the amount of
emigration.  The difference is positive for 31 countries (for
both males and females).  The positive difference (for both
sexes) is 0-5 percent for 5 countries, 5-10 percent for 5
countries, and 10 percent or more for 21 countries.  For 9
countries, however, the differences are negative (either sex) and
implausible.  Of the countries with negative differences, 6 are
Hispanic (Mexico, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala,
Colombia and Peru), 2 Black (Haiti and Trinidad and Tobago), and
one Asian (Other South and East Asia).  The distribution of the
countries according to the percent difference between the
expected and the counted numbers of foreign-born persons is given
below:


  Percent Difference                     Countries
   <0 (negative)                         Mexico, Dominican Republic, El
                                         Salvador, Guatemala, Colombia, Peru,
                                         Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago, Other
                                         South and East Asia    0-5                                  Cuba, Ecuador, Jamaica, India,
                                         Philippines    5-10                                 Ireland, Netherlands, Poland, USSR,
                                         Yugoslavia
     10+                                 Canada, Other North and Central
                                         America, Argentina, Other South
                                         America, France, Germany, Greece,
                                         Italy, Portugal, Spain, United
                                         Kingdom, Other Europe, Iran, Israel,
                                         Other Middle East, Australia, Africa,
                                         China, Japan, Korea, Other Oceania
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     In general, the differences between the expected and counted
populations are higher (or positive) for the countries in Western
Europe, Africa, Oceania, Middle East and Oriental Asia and lower
(or negative) for those in Latin America.  The majority of
positive differences indicate that both the 1980 and 1990 census
data on the foreign-born population were consistent for a large
number of countries.  But why is the difference negative for many
countries in Latin America?  Examination of the numbers by age
and sex (not shown) reveals that the differences for these
countries are even more inconsistent (negative) by age.

     Such inconsistencies may arise from a number of sources: 
(1) differential undercoverage of the foreign-born population in
the 1980 and 1990 censuses, (2) misreporting of year of entry and
nativity, and (3) overestimation of mortality.  As explained in
the previous section, we can initially rule out the possibilities
(2) and (3).  As for undercoverage, there is no direct evidence
available to explain the inconsistent differences between the
expected and counted foreign-born populations.  However, the
negative differences for 9 countries could result if coverage of
the population born in those countries was more complete in 1990
than in 1980. 

     To investigate the possibility that the 1990 coverage was
higher (or 1980 coverage was lower) for the countries with
inconsistent data, we examined the legalizations data under the
Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986.  We
hypothesized that the countries with negative differences were
major sources of undocumented aliens who were hard to count in
the 1980 census but relatively easier to count in the 1990 census
because of adjustment of legal status.  As Table 2 shows, the 9
countries with negative differences for either sex (Mexico, El
Salvador, Guatemala, Peru, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Haiti,
Trinidad and Tobago, and Other South and East Asia) were the
source of 89 percent of the 2.5 million IRCA adjustees who became
permanent residents during 1989-1991.  Another 3 percent of the
aliens adjusting status were from the 5 countries with
differences of less than 5 percent each (Cuba, Ecuador, Jamaica,
India, Philippines).  Mexico alone accounted for about 75 percent
of the IRCA adjustees whereas Europe as a whole accounted for
only 1.3 percent.  Examination of the relationship between the
difference and the proportion of the 1990 foreign-born population
that is IRCA adjustees also shows that large proportions are
generally associated with negative differences.

     How are we to estimate emigration for countries with
inconsistent data?  One procedure would involve adjusting the
foreign-born population by the extent of undercoverage and then
estimating emigration.  Another procedure would estimate a
schedule of emigration rates based on countries with consistent
data and then apply these rates to extrapolate emigration for
other countries.  We adopted the latter procedure because the
former involves making too many assumptions about the extent of
undercoverage.  

     Table 3 shows the countries or areas selected for estimating
emigration rates by race.  The selection process involved the
estimation of standard errors of the differences between the
expected and counted foreign-born populations (not shown).  We
excluded the countries that had statistically significant
negative differences for either sex (except Jamaica).  These
countries or areas are labelled "
"Non-Selected Countries" in Table 3.  The selected countries
together were origins for more than three-fourths of the 14
million foreign-born persons resident in 1980.  Race-wise, the
selected countries were origins for 41 percent of Hispanics, 100
percent of non-Hispanic Whites, 36 percent of Blacks, and 78
percent of the Asian and Pacific Islander population.


                   4.  ESTIMATES OF EMIGRATION

     As mentioned in the preceding section, we first estimated
emigration for the selected countries that had consistent data on
the foreign-born population and then for non-selected countries
with inconsistent data.  We present these in order.


Emigration to Selected Countries

     The estimates of emigration for the selected countries were
developed in two steps:  (1) the estimates for foreign-born
persons who were resident in 1980 (stock), and (2) the estimates
for those who came during 1980-1990 (flow).  The 1980 foreign-
born stock was the basis for the estimation of emigration rates
during 1980-1990.  We first present the estimates for the stock
followed by those for the flow.

Emigration For Those Who Came Before 1980

     From among the 10.6 million foreign-born persons who had
come to the United States from the selected countries before
1980, about 1,198,000 or 11 percent emigrated during 1980-1990
(see Table 4).  Of these emigrants, 634,000 came during 1970-
1979, 221,000 during 1960-1969, and 343,000 before 1960.  The
emigration rates were 19 percent for the cohort of 1970-1979, 9
percent for 1960-1969, and 7 percent for before 1960.  The rates
are consistent in that the highest rate was for the most recent
period of entry and the lowest for the most distant past.  The
rates for males and females were very close; each shows a
declining trend by period of entry.

     The emigration rates by race also seem to be consistent. 
Overall, the highest emigration rate was for Blacks (20 percent),
followed by the Asian and Pacific Islander population (16
percent), non-Hispanic Whites (11 percent) and Hispanics (8
percent).  The emigration rate for Blacks was consistently high
in all three periods of entry.  The rate for Hispanics was
consistently low in all three periods of entry. 

     For all races, the age-specific emigration rates by sex were
estimated for the three periods of entry:  1970-1979, 1960-1969,
and before 1960.  Table 5 shows the age-specific emigration rates
by sex for those who had entered during 1970-1979.  The age-
specific rates for males are plotted in Figure 1 and those for
females in Figure 2.  Irrespective of race and sex, the
emigration rates of recent immigrants show a similar pattern: 
high at younger ages, low during adolescence, high again during
college life, low again during working life, high again during
retirement and low again after retirement.  Despite the
fluctuations associated with life cycles, the age pattern of
emigration shows a declining trend by age.

Emigration for Those Who Came During 1980-1990

     As explained in section 2, in order to estimate the amount
of emigration for those who came during 1980-1990, we need to
estimate the following:  (1) average length of stay during 1980-
1990, (2) average age at time of entry, (3) survival rate, (4)
emigration rate, and (5) the initial foreign-born population that
was at risk of death and emigration.  The average length of stay
is the weighted average of the duration to April 1, 1990 from the
middle points of the years 1980-1981, 1982-1984, 1985-1986, and
1987-1990.  The weights are the proportions of foreign-born
persons who came during these years and were counted in the 1990
census.  As shown in Tables A3 and A4, the average length of stay
varies by age, sex, and race.  For example, for Hispanic males,
the length is 5 years for the age group 20-25 in 1990 and 6 years
for the age group 25-30 in 1990 (see Table A3).  For Hispanic
females, however, the length is 4 years for the age group 20-25
in 1990 and 5 years for the age group 25-30 in 1990 (see Table
A4).  For non-Hispanic White males and females, the length is 4
years for the age group 25-30 in 1990.  Tables A3 and A4 also
show the average age at time of entry of the initial population. 
This age was estimated by subtracting the average length of stay
from the middle point of age groups in 1990.

     Given the age at entry and the length of stay, we estimated
the life table survival rates and emigration rates.  As before,
we used the 1990 life tables for the estimation of survival
rates.  For emigration, we assumed that the rate for those who
came during 1970-1979 would apply to those who came during 1980-
1990, with the length of stay being different (less than 10).  To
conform to the estimated length, we first converted the 10-year
emigration rate into a one-year rate (see Table 6) and then
multiplied it by the estimated length.  The new rates and the
estimated numbers of emigrants--by age and race--are given in
Table A5 for males and Table A6 for females.

     The total amount and percent of emigration for those who
came from the selected countries during 1980-1990 are given in
Table 7 (columns 3 and 4).  About 384,000 people or 8 percent of
the foreign-born population that came during 1980-1990 also
emigrated during the same period.  Both the amount and percent of
emigration for the 1980-1990 cohort are less than the
corresponding figures for the before 1980 cohort (see columns 4
and 5).  The amount is less because of its smaller base; the
percent is less because the base was at risk of emigration for a
shorter period.  

Total Emigration to Selected Countries

     Emigration of those who came before 1980 and those who came
during 1980-1990 sum to 1,582,000 for the decade or about 158,000
per year (column 1 in Table 7).  The number of male emigrants was
799,000, with a rate of 11 percent.  The number of female
emigrants was 783,000, with a rate of 9 percent.  The emigration
rates for non-Hispanic Whites and the Asian and Pacific Islander
population hovered around 10 to 11 percent.  The emigration rate
for Blacks was about 14 percent and for Hispanics only 7 percent.

     The estimated yearly emigration of 158,000 is about 19
percent higher than the Bureau's current level of 133,000.  Note
that this estimate is only for the selected population.  It
doesn't include emigration for foreign-born persons who came from
the non-selected countries listed in Table 3.  The size of the
foreign-born population from these non-selected countries was 3.4
million or 24 percent of the 1980 stock.  Mexico alone was the
country of birth of 2.3 million people who were resident in 1980. 
For another 1.1 million people, the countries of birth were El
Salvador, Guatemala, and Peru.  What was the size of emigration
for people who came from these non-selected Hispanic and other
countries listed in Table 3?


Emigration To Non-Selected Countries

     Does the inconsistency observed between the expected and
counted foreign-born populations from the non-selected countries
tell us there was no emigration for these countries?  The answer
is no.  We are then left with the possibilities that the
emigration rates for the non-selected countries were higher, the
same as or lower than those for the selected countries.  To
derive a "reasonable" schedule of emigration rates for non-
selected countries, our recourse was to consider the determinants
of emigration.

Determinants of Emigration

     Research on the determinants of emigration is scant.  In
assessing the role of emigration on Social Security's financial
status, Duleep (1994) listed four factors that he felt best
accounted for the lower emigration rate of the current and future
foreign-born populations.  First, the overall relative
attractiveness of the country of origin in terms of its economic,
social, and political condition likely affects emigration (Liu,
1975).  If a country is disproportionately less attractive than
another (both compared to the United States) then people
migrating from the less attractive country would be less likely
to return home.  Second, just as the proximity to family and
friends encourages migration, the presence of family and friends
in the place of origin discourages migration (Lansing and
Mueller, 1967; Fabricant, 1970; Greenwood, 1969).  It is possible
that the greater the presence of family and friends in the United
States, the greater the likelihood that immigrants' costs of
migration (e.g., social, economic, and psychological costs) would
be shared by friends and kin, lowering the probability of
emigration.  Third, immigrants admitted as refugees tend to
emigrate at a lower rate because of fear of political persecution
(Warren, 1979; Jasso and Rosenzweig, 1990).  Finally, the lower
the entry earnings of immigrant cohorts (adjusted for education),
the lower is the subsequent rate of emigration.  Research has
shown that immigrants with low-entry earnings have high-earnings
growth (Chiswick, 1978a, 1978b, 1979; Duleep and Regets, 1992,
1994a, 1994b, 1994c), which in turn encourages investment in
U.S.-specific skills and capital, and ultimately lowers the
propensity to emigrate.

Emigration Rates for Non-Selected Countries

     To extrapolate emigration rates for the non-selected
countries, let us now turn to the application of the determinants
of emigration to individual countries.  Direct evidence on all
the four factors of emigration noted above does not exist for
these countries.  Nonetheless, the available indirect evidence
indicates that the emigration rates for the non-selected
countries were lower than those for the selected countries.  We
discuss this with respect to race below.

Hispanic:  The countries or areas that were selected for the
estimation of Hispanic emigration rates are Argentina, Cuba,
Dominican Republic, Colombia, Ecuador, Other North and Central
America (major countries are Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua, and
Panama), Other South America (major countries are Bolivia, Chile
and Venezuela) and Spain.  The countries that were excluded from
estimation or put in the "Non-Selected" category are Mexico, El
Salvador, Guatemala, and Peru.  As shown in Table 2, about 2.1
million aliens or 84 percent of the 2.5 million aliens who
legalized under IRCA during the fiscal years 1989 to 1991 came
from the non-selected Hispanic countries compared to about 0.1
million aliens or about 4 percent from the selected Hispanic
countries.  Although proximity was a factor, the enormous
difference in the numbers of undocumented aliens (2.1 million
versus 0.1 million) was probably because of less "attractiveness"
of the non-selected countries.  This validates our contention
that the emigration rates for the non-selected countries would be
lower than those for the selected countries.

     The second emigration factor relates to the presence of
family and friends in the United States.  The Immigration Act of
1965 abolished the national origins quota system which favored
the European countries, and established a system that would admit
immigrants primarily on the basis of kinship ties.  This change
in federal laws coupled with changing economic opportunities in
Europe was responsible for a major shift in the origin of
immigrants--from European to Asian and Hispanic countries--in
1980.  However, not each Hispanic or Asian country had the same
share of total immigrants.  As shown in Table 3, the non-selected
Hispanic countries were the origins of 2.5 million foreign-born
persons in 1980 compared to 1.8 million for the selected Hispanic
countries.  Admissions of family-based immigrants during the
1980s reveal similar disproportionate share of immigration.  To
the extent the presence of family and friends dilute the cost of
staying away from one's home country, the emigration rate would
be lower for the non-selected Hispanic countries.

     The third factor refers to admissions of refugees and
asylees.  Two of the non-selected Hispanic countries--El Salvador
and Guatemala--were sources of asylees during the 1980s. 
Inclusion of these countries in the non-selected category would
have dampening effect on its emigration rate.

     The last factor correlates the low-entry earnings leading to
high-earnings growth and investment in U.S.-specific human
capital with a low propensity of emigration.  Although we did not
examine data on earnings of immigrant cohorts, we can speculate
that the average earnings of foreign-born persons from the non-
selected Hispanic countries would be lower than that from the
selected Hispanic countries.  Our speculation follows from the
influx of several million undocumented aliens and special
agricultural workers from the non-selected countries, who are
generally employed in low-paying jobs.

Black:  Africa (as a whole) was included in the estimation of
emigration rates for Blacks while Haiti, Jamaica, and Trinidad
and Tobago were excluded (see Table 3).  For the same reasons
given for the non-selected Hispanic countries, the emigration
rates for the non-selected Black countries (Haiti, Jamaica, and
Trinidad and Tobago) would be lower than those for the selected
Black countries (Africa).

Asian and Pacific Islander (API):  The selected countries or
areas for API emigration rates are China, India, Japan, Korea,
the Philippines, and Other Oceania.  The API area in the "Non-
Selected" category is "Other South and East Asia," which includes
major countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos.  The
selected countries are relatively more attractive than the non-
selected countries in terms of social, economic, and political
conditions.  Although China's political condition is different
from Japan and Korea, the strict governmental policy and loyalty
of the Chinese to their form of government places China in the
group of attractive countries as far as emigration is concerned. 
Three of the non-selected API countries--Vietnam, Cambodia, and
Laos--are economically disadvantaged and are major sources of
Asian refugees.  Following Duleep's (1994) conclusions, these
considerations suggest that the emigration rates for the non-
selected countries would again be lower than the selected
countries from this region.

     This discussion about the determinants of emigration and
their specific application to individual countries confirms our
original assertion that the emigration rates for the non-selected
countries should be lower than those for the selected countries. 
But, how much lower?  In the absence of any empirical basis, we
shall take a middle ground assumption and establish emigration
rates at 50 percent of the rates for the selected countries.  

Emigration Estimates for Non-Selected Countries

     Table 8 gives the levels of emigration during 1980-1990 for
the non-selected countries based on assumed emigration rates
(columns 6-10).  The levels vary from zero for the assumption of
zero emigration to 747,000 for the assumption of the same rate as
for the selected countries.  Our preferred assumption--one-half
of the rate for the selected countries--produced a level of
367,000 for the decade.  Of this amount, Hispanics accounted for
231,000, Blacks, 49,000, and the Asian and Pacific Islander
population, 87,000.  The amount of emigration for the Mexico-born
population was 201,000.  


Total Emigration During 1980-1990

     The total amount of emigration during 1980-1990 is the sum
of the amount of emigration for the selected countries and that
for the non-selected countries.  As shown in Table 8 (columns 1-
5), the amount varies from 1,582,000 to 2,329,000, depending on
emigration assumptions for the non-selected countries.  According
to the middle-ground assumption, about 1,949,000 foreign-born
persons emigrated over the 1980-1990 period.  Among total
emigrants, there were 439,000 Hispanics, 878,000 non-Hispanic
Whites, 131,000 Blacks, and 501,000 Asians and Pacific Islanders.

     The new single-year estimate of emigration--195,000--is
about 47 percent higher than the currently used level of 133,000
per year.  This higher amount of emigration is consistent with
related events in recent U.S. history:  the continuous rise in
legal immigration, admissions of refugees and political asylees,
and the general amnesty given to the undocumented aliens and
special agricultural workers under IRCA.


Emigration by Country of Birth

     Table 9 shows the numbers of yearly emigrants for 40 major
countries or areas of birth.  These numbers were derived by
multiplying the base foreign-born population that came from each
of these countries (by age, sex, and year of entry) by its
corresponding "model-based" emigration rate (e.g., Hispanic, non-
Hispanic White, Black, and API rates).  The estimated numbers
were independently controlled to 101,000 male emigrants and
94,000 female emigrants for a  total of 195,000. 

     Europe received the highest number of emigrants per year
(63,736), followed by Asia (61,071), North and Central America
(52,512), South America (9,035), Africa (6,796) and Oceania
(1,850).  The five countries that received more than 10,000
emigrants per year are Mexico (20,068), Canada (11,241), Germany
(11,887), China (10,149), and the Philippines (11,242).  The
United Kingdom is the only other country that had close to 10,000
emigrants per year.




                   5.  SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

     Applying a systematic and innovative approach, this research
has developed new estimates of emigration of the foreign-born
population from the United States during 1980-1990.  The approach
is systematic in that it uses successive cohorts of foreign-born
persons counted in the 1980 and 1990 censuses to develop
schedules of emigration rates.  It is innovative because the
countries with consistent data on the foreign-born population
were grouped together (by race) to give "model" emigration rates,
and because the emigration for countries with inconsistent data
were derived from the model-based rates in conjunction with a
framework on the determinants of emigration.  The main findings
of this research are:

1.   The total amount of emigration of the foreign-born
     population was about 195,000 per year during 1980-1990.  The
     new estimate, which is about 47 percent higher than the
     current level of 133,000 per year, is consistent with the
     recent increase in immigration.

2.   The overall emigration rate during 1980-1990 was about 10
     percent for the selected countries.  The male emigration
     rate was 11 percent and the female rate 9 percent.

3.   Of the 1980 foreign-born stock, the highest emigration rate
     was for the cohort of 1970-1979 (19 percent), followed by
     the 1960-1969 (9 percent) and the before 1960 cohorts (7
     percent).

4.   The age pattern of emigration shows a declining trend by age
     for both males and females.  The pattern is similar for all
     races.

5.   For the selected countries, the emigration rates for non-
     Hispanic Whites and the Asian and Pacific Islander
     population hovered around 10 to 11 percent.  The emigration
     rate for Blacks was about 14 percent while that for
     Hispanics only 7 percent.  The low emigration rate for
     Hispanics was probably because of the same reasons for which
     Hispanic immigration is high (e.g., relative difference in 
     economic and social conditions at origin and destination
     countries).  The high rate for Blacks was because of high
     rate for the 1970-1979 cohort and relatively larger
     proportion of Blacks who came recently.

     It is worth noting that the estimates of emigration
developed here are sensitive to the levels of mortality assumed
for each race group.  This is because in the residual technique
emigration and mortality are the only two forces of attrition of
a given stock of foreign-born population.  We believe that we
selected the best available life table survival rates to estimate
the number of deaths and thereby the number of emigrants.  We are
carrying out illustrative calculations to assess the sensitivity
of the emigration estimates for alternative life table survival
rates.

     Also, the ranges of emigration estimates (presented in Table
8) were based on subjective judgement, which was guided by the
review of the determinants of emigration.  Because both the 1980
and 1990 censuses collected data on the foreign-born population
on sample basis, the estimated levels of emigration are further
subject to sampling error.  We plan to estimate this error and
build confidence intervals around our point estimate of 195,000
per year; this will be done in the near future.

     Despite the limitations noted above, the new estimates of
emigration or emigration rates should replace our current
approach for estimating emigration in the 1990s.  The reasons
are:  

1.   The new approach shifts our estimation focus to the more
     methodologically correct basis of rates, which allows the
     level of emigration to vary as the population at risk (the
     foreign-born) varies; 

2.   The new estimates are more recent because they are based on
     the foreign-born populations enumerated in the 1980 and 1990
     censuses; 

3.   The estimates are different (195,000 vs. 133,000) and more
     plausible, reflecting the rise in immigration; 

4.   The estimates are better because they are based on
     successive cohorts of foreign-born populations taken from
     countries with consistent data; 

5.   The estimates are detailed by demographic characteristics
     such as age, sex, race, and country of birth; and 

6.   We are able to document the details of our methodology.

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   PLEASE CONTACT THE AUTHOR FOR A COPY OF THE DETAILED TABLES