AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
910 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED OVER GEORGIA AND ONLY WIDELY                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN FL...                 
MOVING SOUTHWEST. PLAN AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF                       
PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. THE RUC              
INDICATES THE MID/UPPER INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EAST OF FLA BROADENS             
AND MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR HIGHER             
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FA TOMORROW.                                 
TRABERT                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KMFL 020106  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1028 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                      
CURRENTLY...RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER                  
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND OFF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST. THESE SHOWERS           
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEATURE MOVING OFF THE                  
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH RUC 09Z RUN INDICATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST            
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO DROP POPS            
TO A CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AND GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY.              
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.                                    
BLS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 011352  fl                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
940 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID AND            
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER ATLANTIC AND NEAR THE COAST.  SOME BREAKS               
NOTED NORTH AND INTERIOR.  CAPE CANAVERAL PROFILER SHOWING SURFACE              
TO 10 THOUSAND FEET SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW DUE TO BROAD LOW LEVEL              
RIDGE THAT WAS BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH.  10Z CAPE SOUNDING HAD AROUND             
2 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER.                                                    
TODAY...LATEST RUC SHOWED WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA           
WITH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BECOMING SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL CONTINUE             
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE LIMITED              
BY CLOUDINESS.  FIGURE THAT INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE              
THE MOST HEATING SO HIGHER POPS THERE LOOK GOOD.  FOR THE COASTAL               
AREAS...THE EVOLUTION OF THE GRADIENT FLOW TO SOUTHEAST AND WEAK                
HEATING SHOULD ESTABLISH ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.  DO NOT SEE ANYTHING MAJOR THAT WILL NEED              
UPDATING IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.                                               
MARINE...CONVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS WAS DISTURBING LOW LEVEL                
FLOW BUT RUC MODEL SHOWS 10 TO 15 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR THE DAY.               
MAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS THIS.               
LITTLE CHANGE.                                                                  
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
LASCODY                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 011329   fl                                     

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
315 AM EST THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
FAIRLY INTERESTING FORECAST THIS MORNING. MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE            
FORECAST IS THE RAIN TODAY. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE IS A WARM                 
FRONT THAT IS IN SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF VORT WAS             
MOVING TO THE NE NORTH OF THE FRONT. EARLY THIS MORNING A COMA AREA             
OF RAIN WAS ACROSS INDIANA. MAIN PROBLEM IS WORDING OF THE RAIN                 
EVENT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. WHILE SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE                
MOVING THROUGH INDIANA THIS MORNING THERE IS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO              
THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE PICTURES DO SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA NEAR STL.           
BIG QUESTION IS WHILL THIS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FILL IN THIS                 
AREA.                                                                           
RUC HAS VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA. IT MOVES THIS PVA NE.                   
SATELLITE SHOWING FEATURES MOVING EAST. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME                   
DEVELPMENT IN CENTRAL IL. FOR CENTRAL IN THIS MORNING WILL GO WITH              
FWC 70 PCT POPS. THE RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING SO            
WILL GO UNQUALIFIED THERE.                                                      
NVA ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVES INTO INDIANA LATE THIS MORNING              
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD GIVE A BREAK IN THE PCPN. ANOTHER              
S/W MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL KEEP A CHC             
OF RAIN IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WITH THE BREAK IN THE RAIN AND               
WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH HOW WARM WILL IT GET. WILL GO SAME CATAGORY             
AS FWC TEMPS BUT VERIFICATION TEMP ABOUT A DEGREE HIGHER. AIR IS                
FAIRLY WARM MOVING IN.                                                          
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO INDIANA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS               
WILL CUT OFF THE RAIN DURING THE EVE IN THE CENTRAL SECT AND BY                 
MIDNIGHT N. WILL GO CLOSE TO FWC TEMPS.                                         
THE WARM OR SHOULD I SAY HOT UP WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY. WITH THE LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUDS. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD            
TEMPS DOWN. WILL GO NEAR FWC READINGS.                                          
.IND...NONE.                                                                    
HAINES                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KIWX 010818  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
935 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
A RATHER TRICKY FCST SITUATION THIS EVENING. LOOKS KIND OF LIKE A               
DARNED IF YOU DO AND DARNED IF YOU DONT AS FAR AS UPDATING THE ZONES IS         
CONCERNED. MCS OVER AR/MO QUICKLY DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND            
REFORMED JUST AS QUICKLY OVER S IL-S IN AND INTO PARTS OF OHIO.                 
LATEST SAT PIXS...COMPOSITE RADARS AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT THE         
LIGHTING IS DECR AND TOPS WARMING TO OUR NW AND N BUT NOW CONVECTION IS         
REDEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER W KY. CWA IS PRETTY MUCH PCPN FREE RIGHT NOW.         
WITH SUCH RAPID CONVECTIVE CHANGES AND RATHER FAST ENVIRONMENTAL                
WINDS...AM RELUCTANT TO LOWER POPS TOO MUCH TONIGHT. ALSO...LATEST              
MESO-ETA/RUC AND THE 12Z ETA ALL INDICATE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR AT           
LEAST SOME PCPN TNGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THICKNESS FIELDS ARE ALSO           
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. WILL           
DROP THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING THOUGH. WILL RE-ADJUST THE ZONE BREAK UP            
ALSO AND TWEAK THE POPS. THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHC FOR ANY DECENT           
PCPN WILL BE OVER THE W 1/2 OF THE CWA AND THE LEAST CHANCE OVER THE            
FAR E.                                                                          
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
HALL                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KJKL 012040  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
230 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
MESOSCALE FORECAST PROBLEMS GALORE FOR THE NEXT 24HR.  MCV OVER                 
SOUTH-CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS AFTN MOVING QUICKLY EAST AT 40KT.                   
ALTHOUGH IR IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUALLY WARMING TOPS...WOULD                    
STILL EXPECT PERIOD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SRN 2/3 OF CWA LATE THIS                   
AFTN/ERLY EVENING.  OTHER SCT TSRA OVER SIL/SWIN CLOSER TO SFC BNDRY            
JUST NORTH OF FA.  USING RUC/MM5 MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE/RADAR                 
TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM.  H8-H3 SHEAR VECTORS TAKE MCV MAINLY EAST             
ACROSS FA EARLY THIS EVENING.  WILL BREAK FIRST PERIOD INTO 2 PARTS             
TO ACCOUNT FOR EVENING FFA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MESOSCALE                 
FEATURE...SHOULD PUT AN END TO MOST THE THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FOR              
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                                                           
STRONGEST UPR LEVEL WIND FIELDS PULL NORTH ON FRI AS MODELS PAINT               
BUILDING H7-H5 RIDGE ACROSS TN/OH VLY.  EVEN SO...H7 WAA IS SLOWER              
TO RESPOND WITH +10 TEMPS STILL MAINLY WEST OF FA.  WITH MANY                   
LEFTOVER MESOSCALE BOUNDARYS ACROSS AREA...A WEAK H8 THETA-E RIDGE              
STILL IN PLACE AND AFTN CAPES AOA 2500 J/KG...WILL PUT LOW POPS                 
ACROSS AREA ON FRI.  ATMOSPHERE SHOULD FINALLY BECOME MORE CAPPED FRI NIGHT INTO
GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY.                       
.PAH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SEMO/SIL/WKY/SWIN THIS EVENING              
KEYSOR                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLMK 011926  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY                                         
325 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
30-40 KT LLJ CONTS TO FUNNEL HIGHER LOW LVL MOIST TWD THE OH RVR AT             
MID AFTN...AHD OF MO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. MOIST WAS THEN BEING WRUNG             
OUT ACRS S-CNTRL IND -- AHD OF FRONTAL BNDRY UP IN CNTRL IND. RADAR             
ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR SO FAR.  WITH LLJ GRDLY SHFTG E             
THIS EVNG ... AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF JET-LET ACRS NRN              
IND...PLUS SRN EDGE OF WLY'S -- THINK POTENTIAL FOR LCL HVY RAIN TO             
CONT INTO THE EVNG -- BUT SLIPPING INTO KY. WILL KEEP FFA GOING FOR             
AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER WATCH -- SINCE FFG VALUES LOW FROM HEAVY RAIN             
EARLIER IN THE WEEK.                                                            
OTHERWISE ETA/RUC VERY SIMILIAR IN TAKING MCV OUT OF SRN MO ACRS SRN            
KY THIS EVNG.  WITH RICH ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE -- WUD THINK NEW TSTMS             
WILL GO UP THERE AS WELL. CONVECTION FM MCV SHUD THEN SLIP MNLY S OF            
KY LTR TNGT.                                                                    
SWLY FLOW ALOFT ON FRI WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO                
REMAIN IN PLACE.  WE PLAN TO KEEP SML POP GOING...MNLY FOR AIRMASS              
VARIETY...ON FRIDAY. TEMPS SHUD CREEP UP ON FRIDAY WITH A BIT MORE              
SUNSHINE...AND HIGHER THERMAL PTN INDICATED PER GUIDE.                          
HAVE OPTED FOR AVN/ETA SOLUTION ON SAT...AS RDGG AND CAPPING                    
BUILDING INTO THE LOWR OH VLY. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AND             
ALLOW HEAT AND HUMIDITY LVLS TO BUILD.                                          
HAVE RAISED TEMPS OVR FWC GUIDE FOR SATURDAY.                                   
.SDF...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND                 
       NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.                                                  
STUREY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLMK 011924  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
900 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
...MA NATURE MUST BE FIRING UP THE BIG GRILL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND            
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE WE ARE GETTING READY TO FRY...                      
WITH STG TROF DVLPG IN THE NW U.S. A VERY STG UPR LVL RDG WL BUILD              
OVR THE ERN AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT              
...ALL THE MDLS BLD 500MB HGTS TO 594DM BY SAT MORNING FROM THE                 
MISS VLY TO THE APPALACHIANS. THE AVN/MRF BLDS THE RDG EVEN MORE                
WITH HGTS TO 598DM SUN MORNING OVR OUR AREA. 500 MB HGHTS DON'T                 
REACH THOSE LVLS IN THIS AREA THAT OFTEN.                                       
DURING SAT AND SUN...S FLOW WL KEEP QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AROUND              
AND PRECIP H20S WL REMAIN HIGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING               
HEAT WL MAKE HEAT INDICES CLIMB SUBSTANTIALLY. AS THE UPR LVL RDG               
BUILDS AND IS CENTERED ON TOP OF US OR JUST TO THE W MON/TUE TIME               
FRAME...THE SFC WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME MORE SW THEN W THEN NW.               
THIS WOULD LOWER DWPTS A BIT THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING...BUT THE                    
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN TEMPS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE            
DANGER ZONE. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS WEEKEND...THE HUMIDITY WL BE THE             
BIGGER CULPRIT IN CONTRIBUTING TO THE HEAT INDEX...THEN EARLY NXT               
WEEK THE PROBLEM IS GOING TO SHIFT TO PLAIN OLD INTENSE HEAT. WHAT              
LTL HUMIDITY WE DO HAVE TO MAKE THINGS THAT MUCH WORSE. ON OTHER                
FACTOR IS THAT THE EXTREMELY WARM MID LVLS AND HIGH HGTS WL PUT ONE             
BIG MONSTER CAP OVR THE AREA BEGINNING SUN CONT AT LEAST INTO TUE.              
THUS...10% OR LESS POPS.                                                        
A COUPLE MORE SHRTWVS TO DEAL WITH BEFORE HGHTS START CRANKING UP.              
WEAK SHRTWV WILL PASS NE OF THE AREA BY 06Z OVRNGT. THIS FEATURE                
SEEMED TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFT/EARLY EVE. AS            
WE LOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING...AND VORT MAX PASSES TO OUR NE PUTTING             
US IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL FADE. THIS IS             
SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z ETA AND RUC. ACTIVITY ALREADY ON THE WANE ON               
88D. WILL REMOVE POPS MTN AREAS FOR OVRNGT AND KEEP A 20 POP UNTIL              
MIDNGT E OF MTNS. WL USE MUGGY RATHER THAN HUMID BECAUSE MUGGY SOUNDS           
METEOROLOGICALLY NASTIER AND THAT IS WHAT IS GOING TO BE...ESP IN               
AREAS THAT RECEIVED PCPN. WINDS REALLY SHOT UP OVR THE BAY THIS                 
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THEM TO SUBSIDE A BIT LATER TNGT. HOWEVER...WINDS             
ARE STILL QUITE STG AT SMITH POINT BUOY AND MID BAY BUOY...ESP                  
GUSTS...SO SCA WL BE HOISTED S OF SANDY POINT. GARP PROBLEMS DVLPD ONCE         
THE SOO HIT THE ROAD FOR THE BEACH...SO 12Z 4KM RAMS MDL NOT AVBL.              
APPARENTLY ITS ON THE INTERNET BUT THE MAPS ARE SO SMALL THAT IT IS             
HARD TO INTERPRET THE WIND DATA WITH ANY PRECISION.                             
NXT SHRTWV INDICATED BY THE 12Z MDLS AND THE 18Z ETA MOVES THRU THE             
AREA FRI AFT. PRECIP H20 IS STILL QUITE HIGH AND TEMPS WL CLIMB A               
LTL HIER WHICH WL AID IN INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SEE THE POTENTIAL               
LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA RATHER              
THAN JUST -SHRA.                                                                
SHRTWV MVS NE OF THE AREA BY EVE. IN ADDITION...MDLS ARE SHOWING                
LWRG PCPN H20 VALUES RIGHT AROUND 00Z...HGTS BEGIN TO BLD AND THERE             
IS WARMING ALOFT SO NO 3RD PD POPS. COULD SEE SOMETHING LINGER RIGHT            
UP TIL 00Z BUT THAT FALLS INTO THE 2ND PD...NOT 3RD. MUGGY AGAIN.               
MA NATURE'S HEAT PUMP WL BE RUNNING AT HIGH SPEED STARTING SUN CONT             
INTO EARLY AND MID PART OF NEXT WK. COULD SEE SOME 100F DAYS.                   
HOTTEST DAYS APPR TO BE MON/TUE/WED. BY THU...STG UPR LVL RDG                   
RETROGRADES ENUF TO RESULT IN LWRING HGTS OVR THE NE STATES. THIS               
MAY BRING SOME "LESS INSANE HEAT" INTO THE AREA...BUT I DEFINATELY              
WOULD NOT USE THE TERM "COOLER".                                                
BACK AT 7AM FOR MORE FUN AND FESTIVITIES.                                       
.LWX...SMALL CRAFT ADVY CHES BAY S OF SANDY POINT                               
WALSTON                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 011822  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                      
HAPPY JULY...ITS GOING TO FEEL LIKE IT VERY SOON. WILL BE ISSUING A             
SPECIAL WX STATEMNT THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE FOR             
THIS WEEKEND. MRF HAS BACKED OFF IT/S EARLIER SOLTN OF COOLER AIR               
MOVING IN SUN NTE AND MON. IT NOW KEEPS THIS LOCKED UP TO OUR NORTH.            
THE RESULT WILL BE HAZY HOT AND HUMID WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. MED RNGE           
MOS HAS MID-UPR 90S FOR DC AND BALTO SUN AND MON. GOOD WEEKEND TO BE IN         
THE WATER BUSINESS.                                                             
AS FOR CURRENT GOINGS ON...SHWRS AND A ISOLATED TSTMS IN MUCH THE SAME          
LOCATION I LEFT THEM YESTERDAY...IN LWR STHRN MD/ESTRN VA/AND THE               
EASTERN SHORE. THEY ARE MOVING N ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT            
BROUGHT COOLER AIR IN YESTERDAY. LATEST 09Z RUC HAS THIS HOLDING IN             
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER S/W WILL COME IN FROM THE SW THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND SHULD DRAG THE OLD FRONT OUT TO SEA TNT...ALLOWING THE            
WEEKEND RIDGE TO BUILD IN.                                                      
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.  WINDS S AT 10 MPH FOR THIS AFTRN WITH            
CLDY SKIES...PS IN THE ESTRN WV PANHNDLE. SHWRS FOR LOWR S MD...CHC             
POPS FOR THE MIDDLE...AND SLGHT CHC FOR FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD GET              
ABOUT 3-5 DEGRS WARMER THAN CURRNT READINGS.                                    
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
STRONG                                                                          
 md                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH                  
LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA THREAT.                                                   
SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN GRT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                
SUPPORTED BY INSTABILITY WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING 850                  
MOISTURE PRODUCING TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 52. CAPES THOUGH GENERALLY               
ONLY IN 300-700 J/KG RANGE. KMQT 88D INDICATED SHRA FADING LAST FEW             
HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONE ISOLD SHRA NEAR IMT SHOULD              
ALSO FADE QUICKLY BY 04Z.                                                       
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING AOB 800 MB PER RUC FCST SNDGS AND AREA             
00Z SNDGS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING MID/UPR CLOUDS EXPECT AREAS            
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GROW. KSAW ALREADY REPORTING 1/4SM IN FOG              
AND LOW CLOUDS LINGER AT KERY AND KCMX. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN             
THE MID TO UPPER 50S GOING MIN TEMP FCST ON TRACK.                              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 020227  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1025 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                      
CURRENT REGIONAL SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PULLING E OF GEORGIAN              
BAY...WITH SECONDARY TROF OVER ERN UPR/NRN LWR MI AND SE WI.                    
SATELLITE LONGWAVE IR IMAGES SHOW THE BULK OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT            
CLOUDINESS WELL E OF THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED MID LVL CLOUDS LEFT            
BEHIND. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN               
UPR AND FAR NRN LWR. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN A FCST CONCERN                     
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THREAT/EXTENT OF DRIZZLE/FOG GIVEN THE LACK              
OF POST-FRONTAL DRYING.                                                         
KAPX 88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN PULLING            
E OF THE REGION ACROSS LAKE HURON...CONSISTENT TO WHERE REGION OF               
COUPLING UPPER LEVEL JETS/AREA OF 850-500 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND              
DEEP MOISTURE ARE MOVING ACCORDING TO LATEST (00Z) RUC. EVEN WITH               
300 MB JET AXIS SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WEAK LEFT EXIT REGION                
FORCING/1000-500 MB LAYER AVE MOISTURE TO STILL HANG ON ACROSS                  
EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NRN LWR. THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SEE MAINLY               
CLOUDY SKIES REMAINING OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE             
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE/STRATUS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS SRN HALF            
OF NRN LWR WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.           
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM EARLIER FORECAST APPEARS ON TARGET FOR                
MOST AREAS...MAY HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN A FEW ZONES            
BASED ON CURRENT READINGS.                                                      
UPDATED ZONES TO BE OUT BY 1045 PM.                                             
HURLEY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 020138  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
305 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
...CHC POP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...                                          
MAIN WEATHER ACTION TIED TO SHTWV THAT IS EXITING SE LWR MI AROUND              
18Z.  TRAILING SHTWV MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE TSTMS THIS EVENING AS              
RUC AND ETA DO SHOW SOME DPVA THIS EVENING/SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE/               
PUSH POSSIBLE JET COUPLET BETWEEN NEXT JET SEGEMENT UPSTREAM.  AFTER            
THAT SHTWV PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF THE NEXT                  
SYSTEM UPSTREAM AND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO DIVEGENCE BTWN              
THE TWO SYSTEM. THIS WILL MEAN SINKING AIR AT MID LEVELS THROUGH                
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
ETA AND AVN SEEM BEST TODAY SINCE NGM PUTS TO MUCH ENERY INTO FIRST             
500 CLOSED LOW. AVN AND ETA REDEVEOPE UPPER SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST             
DUE TO STRENTH OF JET DIGGING INTO W COAST TROF.  RETURNING WARM                
FRONT WILL TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY                   
MORNING. DIFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN FRI NIGHT WOULD LEAD TO                     
POSSIBLITY OF MCS TRACKING SSE INTO SW LWR MI.  HOWEVER... MOST OF              
THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL WEST OF MICHIGAN ASSOC               
WITH UPPER LOW AND JET WHICH BY FRI NIGHT WILL BE NRN MN.  THICKNESS            
DIFLUENCE WILL KEEP MOST OF PCPN IN WI/MN/UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT            
MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW DWPT POOLING NEAR WARM FRONT OVER MN/NW                 
WI...THAT WILL HELP KEEP STORMS NEAR WARM FRONT.                                
ON SATURDAY... 700 MB TEMPS RISE TO 16C... AND 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO               
LOW 20C... THUS EXPECT MOS FCST TO COOL SAT. WILL INCREASE HIGHS TO             
NEAR 90 AND IT WILL BE VERY HUMID.                                              
WDM                                                                             
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE             
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE UPR HIGH WILL DEVELOP             
OVER OH/TN VALLEYS AND COMBINE WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SFC TO              
TURN ON THE HEAT PUMP AS THE JET IS SHOVED NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. A            
CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL STRADDLE THE HOLIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE                   
CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE WRN LAKES. THIS IS            
BASICALLY SUPPORTED BY THE OTHER MODELS TOO. AT THIS POINT I THINK              
THE MAIN ENERGY WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AS A RESULT OF THE NWD                   
MOVEMENT OF THE JET.  AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THRU... THE RIDGE             
WILL DOMINATE OUR WX ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                      
MRF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/EUROPEAN SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TRYING TO MOVE              
THROUGH ON TUESDAY... SO WILL BRING BACK THE CHANCE OF TSTMS THEN.              
MRF TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND WILL STAY CLOSE.                                 
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 011904  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1050 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                      
...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS PM...           
FAIRLY STRONG SHTWV AND ASSOC SFC LOW EXITING GRR CWA AS I WRITE                
THIS.  SFC LOW NEAR SBN AT 14Z WITH WARM FRNT NEAR MI BORDER.  ALL              
OF THIS AT NOSE OF 300 MB JET EXIT REGION.  DURING THE AFTERNOON                
THIS WILL MOVE EAST OF GRR CWA AND 15Z 88D SHOWS MAIN PCPN AREA                 
ALREADY EAST OF US-131.  ARE OF THUNDESTORMS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR WARM            
FRONT SOUTH OF LANSING DURING PAST HOUR.  EVEN SO... THIS ACTIVITY              
WILL BE EAST OF ENTIRE CWA BY 1-2 PM.                                           
MEANWHILE... YET ANOTHER SHTWV... SPINNING IN THE COOLER AND DRIER              
AIR TO OUR WEST IS HEADING TOWARD SW MI FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND            
EARLY TONIGHT. 12Z RUC SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WILL REDEVELOP AS IT MOVES             
INTO SW MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  COMBINATION OF SECOND JET SPEED               
MAX WITH DEPARTING SPEED MAX TO CREATE JET COUPLING.  RUC SHOWS GOOD            
700 TO 300 MB DPV AND SOME 850 MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. WHILE 850             
TO SFC DWPTS WILL BE SOME WHAT DRIER OVER SW LWR MI THEN AHEAD OF               
PRIMARY SYS... WHICH BY 00Z WILL BE EAST OF MI TOTALLY... SHOULD                
ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABLITY TO REDEVELOPE THUNDERTSTORMS TOWARD EVENING.            
WILL BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SRN AND CNTL PART OF CWA BY MID                   
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN INCOMING AND OUTGOING SYSTEM ALLOWS             
BRIEF BRAKE IN CLOUDS.  ENOUGH TO INCREASE INSTABLITY TOO.                      
BOTTOM LINE... TO MAKE IT SIMPLE WILL FORECAST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS              
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LET                   
NOWCASTS DEAL WITH DETAILS. HIGHS 75 TO 80 SOUTH... MID 70S NORTH.              
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
 mi                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
910 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER                   
NORTHERN CWA WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT WEST OF CWA TOWARD DAWN.               
21Z RUC INDICATED THAT WEAK FORCING TO REMAIN OVER CWA UNTIL ABOUT              
06Z.  RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED TSRA OVER MAINLY NORTHERN                
CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH ELONGATED VORTICITY ALONG 25H JET AXIS FROM               
MONTANA/NODAK/CENTRAL MN.  CONVECTION STILL GOING OVER SOUTHEAST                
NODAK...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE POSSIBLE VORT CENTER              
MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA.  MAY HAVE TO HOLD ONTO SMALL POP IN THE               
NORTH CWA.  OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY TO TALK ABOUT.  21Z             
RUC/18Z ETA DID INITIATE CONVECTION SOUTHERN SODAK LATE TONIGHT.                
STRONG 85H THETA-E ADVECTION/WAA DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET. DONT            
BELIEVE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO FAR WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z                    
THOUGH.  FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.                                         
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
 DWE                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 012043  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1025 AM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                      
FIRST PERIOD CONCERNS CENTER ON PRECIP THREAT.  SURFACE ANALYSIS AND            
KMPX DOPPLER RDAR SHOWING DIMINISHING -SHRA OVR ERN SD AS CLD TOPS              
CONT TO WARM.  SOME INCR IN LGTNG NOTED SOUTH OF FSD HOWEVER.  SFC              
ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FM LK WINNIPEG LOW PRES            
TO SECOND WK LOW RES IN ERN SD.  WND FLOW QUITE WEAK...WEAKER THAN WED.         
WV SHOWING S/W CIRCULATION MOVING THRU ERN SD ON TRACK TO SLIDE                 
ACRS MN THIS AFTN.  APPEARS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN LATEST RUC                 
GUIDANCE.  DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT UPSTREAM CIRCULATIONS BUT ANY SHOULD           
WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE AHEAD OF DEEPENING LONG WAVE               
TROUGH IN WEST.  /110 METER HEIGHT FALLS NOTED ON 12Z ANALYSIS IN WA./          
MSAS PROGRAM INDICATING LINGERING WK TROUGH OVR ERN MN ZONE FORECAST            
AREA WITH DEWPTS NR 60.  SFC BASED LIS HAVE DECREASED TO -4 AND                 
INTERACTIVE SKEW-T PROGRAM INDICATED CAPES INCREASIG TO OVR 500 FOR             
A TIME WITH MINIMAL CIN.  HENCE WL CONT SCT POPS IN ERN AREAS.                  
/                                                                               
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
KAVINSKY                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 010932  mn                                      

NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
846 PM MDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
UPDATE PLANNED.                                                                 
STRONG ZONAL JET FROM EPAC THRU PAC NW TO NEMONT EVIDENT ON WV                  
IMAGERY AND FROM 90KT 250MB WIND ON GGW 0Z SOUNDING. WV IMAGERY                 
SUGGESTS TWO DISTINCT MAXIMA...ONE ALONG HI LINE FROM CUT BANK TO               
GGW...OTHER OVER NW WA. 0Z RUC PICKS UP FIRST MAXIMA WITH SHORT                 
WAVE/VORT CNTR...JET STREAK ENTRANCE REGION...FCST TO TRACK NORTH OF            
EAST ACROSS MT THRU VCNTY GGW OVERNIGHT. AREA OF WK CONVECTION OVER             
NW MT APPEARS ASSOCIATED. THIS FEATURE DEPICTED AS STRONGER THAN                
LEADING WAVE NOW OVER E MT...BUT DOUBT WILL BE AS MUCH CONVECTION               
WITH TRAILING WAVE DUE TO NOCTURNAL PASSAGE. ATMOS LIKELY TO REMAIN             
UNSETTLED...PLUS HAVE OBSERVED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS FOCI OF EVENING            
CONVECTION WHICH MAY INTERACT WITH UPSTREAM FEATURE. UPDATE TO                  
FRESHEN WORDING IN ZONES PLUS PUT SCTD SHOWERS IN FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT           
FIRST PD...ESP ALONG HI LINE...WHILE ALLOWING EVENING CONVECTION TO             
DIE BEFORE/AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO ADJUST FIRST PD MINIMA TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS/HIER DEW PTS ALONG HI LINE WHILE S ZONES LOOK           
OK. LATER PDS ALSO LOOK OK.                                                     
GGW 4321 050/071/048/070                                                        
GDV 2311 051/072/049/072                                                        
SECORA                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTFX 020225  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
950 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
THE ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS.  01/18Z ETA AND 02/00Z              
RUC BOTH INDICATE STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION INTO N               
CNTRL NEB AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING THIS AXIS EWD INTO THE              
NWRN ZONES TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.  00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATED            
DEEPER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL CONFINED TO SRN KS...OK AND TX                
WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NEB.                  
THEREFORE...AIRMASS ACROSS STATE WILL NEED TO DESTABILIZE                       
SIGNIFICANTLY TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  ATTM...IT APPEARS               
THAT THE NWRN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS                           
DESTABILIZATION.  FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC AND ETA         
INDICATE THE ADVECTION OF A WARM NOSE IN THE 800-700MB                          
LAYER...WORKING INTO THE CWFA FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY INHIBITING                 
CONVECTION ACROSS SRN ZONES.  UPSHOT IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF                 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NW...WITH THE LOWEST POPS IN THE SE.               
TEMPERATUREWISE...LOWER DEWPOINTS AND WEAK WINDS ACROSS THE N MAY SUPPORT       
NEAR 60.  FARTHER S...HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NRN KS COULD ADVECT               
INTO THE AREA...SUPPORTING GOING TEMPERATURES.                                  
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
MEAD                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLBF 020133  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
831 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
WILL UPDATE ZONES AND REFOCUS HIGHER POPS FOR THE NCNTRL FOR TSTM               
DEVELOP FROM MIDNIGHT ON. 18Z MESO-ETA AND RUC MODELS AND NOW 21Z               
RUC INDICATES GREATER THREAT FOR TSTM DEVELOP NE OF A LN FROM                   
MERRIMAN TO BROKEN BOW. AT 00Z HAND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED DRYLINE FROM            
CNTRL WY S ACROSS ERN CO INTO NM. SEMI STNRY FRONT FM MT INTO NERN SD           
ACROSS SRN MN.                                                                  
2H DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER NCNTRL AS 7H WAA INCREASES WITH                    
WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE SD/NEB STATELINE BY MIDNIGHT. 850-700                   
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE GREATEST NE OF THIS LINE AS 8H SLY            
JET KICKS IN TO 30 KTS BY 03Z TO 50 KTS BY MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE WRN             
FA WILL LOWER POPS TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED              
DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH 3.6 DEGREE CAP PRESENTLY AND CONSIDERING DEGREE             
OF WAA AT 7H CAP TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. SFC WINDS           
HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED AROUND TO THE SSE ACROSS THE W AND PROGGED TO              
SHIFT ACROSS THE NCNTRL BY 03Z.                                                 
.LBF...NONE                                                                     
TLK                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KOAX 011953  ne                                      

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV                                                
845 PM PDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE EVENING IN VICINITY OF                 
THETA E RIDGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NV APPEARS TO BE DYING OFF                
NOW. 00Z MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE RUC...DEPICTS AREA OF PVA ACROSS               
PARTS OF SRN AND CENTRAL NV THIS EVENING AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT              
APPROACHING TROF. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING WINDS ARE                     
BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AS FORECAST. EVENING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO                
SHOW VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS WELL. WILL NEED TO UPDATE TO               
CLEAN UP WIND WORDING AND REMOVE EVENING POPS FROM WHITE PINE                   
COUNTY. FAUCETTE                                                                
.EKO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KREV 012156  nv                                      

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
317 AM PDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC                  
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH           
GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS. THE RECENT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL             
CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY BEFORE LOWERING A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY.                  
DISCUSSION...HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN LATER TODAY AS FIRST IN SERIES             
OF SHORTWAVES MOVES INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EASTERN PACIFIC-SOUTHWEST           
U.S. ANTICYCLONE STILL VERY STRONG TODAY...HOWEVER...AND SHOULD                 
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY. THERE IS A            
VERY WEAK SHEAR VORTICITY LOBE NEARING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST            
THAT ETA/RUC MOVE GRADUALLY TO SOUTHERN NEVADA IN NEXT 24 HOURS; THIS           
SHOULD LEAD TO A BIT MORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH WINDS            
UP SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE GOING ZONE FORECAST               
ALREADY INDICATED. 30 METER HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS BY FRIDAY SHOULD             
CORRESPOND ROUGHLY TO 3 DEGREES LOWER TEMPERATURES ALL AREAS. ALMOST            
NO CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECASTS.                                                
STRONGER LOW IS STILL SLATED TO APPROACH PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY             
WILL LEAD TO SERIOUS HEIGHT FALLS AND DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG FOR                 
SUMMER SURFACE LOW ACROSS GREAT BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY; UNCERTAIN IF            
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS SATURDAY...SO           
CONTINUED "LOCAL WINDY" TERMINOLOGY ADEQUATE.  MRF SUGGESTING SURFACE           
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY REASONABLE            
TEMPERATURES BY THEN. BIGGEST NEWS ON THE HORIZON IS INTENSIFICATION            
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY TO            
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOWN BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THIS WOULD LEAD           
TO INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND...IF              
MRF IS CORRECT...SPREAD SOME DEGREE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO AT               
LEAST WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY; AND           
TONS OF MOISTURE HAVE BEEN LURKING DURING RECENT DAYS JUST TO THE               
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SONORA. MAC                                                    
.LAS...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KREV 010948  nv                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
400 AM MDT THU JUL 1 999                                                        
************* SERVICE CHANGE JUL 15 1999 *****************                      
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION BECOMES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
AFOS ID                       ABQSFDABQ      ABQAFDABQ                          
WMO/FAMILY OF SERVICES ID     FXUS74 KABQ    FXUS64 KABQ                        
EFFECTIVE 1000 AM MDT JULY 15 1999...                                           
ABQSFDABQ WILL BE DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED BY ABQAFDABQ.                       
ABQAFDABQ WILL APPLY ONLY TO NEW MEXICO ZONES 1-21 AND 26.                      
**********************************************************                      
MDLS AGREE THAT WK TROF ALF WILL DVLP TO OUR WEST BY FRI WITH UPR               
RDG CNTRL/ERN NM EWD...THUS OPENING DOOR TO SUBTRPCL MOISTR OVR OLD             
MEXICO. DETAILS OF CONCERN IN THE EAST...MAY BE TOO STBL SPCLY IN SE            
FOR CNVCTN THIS AFTN...THO TSTMS DID FIRE JUST ACRS BDR IN MAF/S                
TERRITORY. AVN PLACES SFC LOW OVR SE NM THIS AFTN...AND RUC SUGGESTS            
BNDRY FROM MCS OVR KS TNGT WL BE LOCATED ALG NE BORDER 18Z TDA. NOT             
SURE HOW FAR S BNDRY WL GET...BUT WNDS NLY AT RTN AND APPEAR READY              
TO SHIFT TO NLY AT CAO ATTM. AGAIN MAY BE CAPPED BUT WILL MENTION               
SMALL POPS OVR MUCH OF NE AND ECNTRL.  NEW MRF SUGGESTS CHC POPS OVR            
JULY FOURTH WEEKEND WITH SLGT COOLING IN DAYTIME TEMPS.                         
.ABQ...NONE                                                                     
 nm                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
945 AM EDT THU JUL 01 1999                                                      
MRNG SAT PIX SHOW LOW CLD MASS ENVELOPING ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE          
FA ATTM...WITH ITS LEADING EDGE HAVING A HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO THE           
FINGER LKS RGN.  THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHRA/TSRA THIS MRNG RIDING UP             
THRU SE PA/NJ IN THE DEEPER MOIST AND SUPPORTED BY WK S/WV AXIS.  ALTHO         
INCRG LL JET SHUD ADVECT THIS TROP MOIST NWD AND INTO THE CWA THIS              
AFTN...UL SUPPORT SHUD STAY MAINLY ABT WHERE IT IS NOW ALG THE COASTAL          
PLAIN.  THIS SCENARIO SHUD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN SE OF THE RGN          
THIS AFTN...BUT STILL FEEL BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN LO CHC          
POPS FROM NE PA UP THRU THE SUSQ RGN/CATSK WITH WARM FRNT IN THE VCNTY          
AND DECENT THETA ADVCTN OVERRIDING THE BNDRY.  A FAIR AMT OF CLDS SHUD          
KEEP TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 70S THESE AREAS.                                    
FURTHER N/W...CLD/TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKIER.  AS MENTIONED ERLYR...CLD           
MASS TO THE SE HASN/T MADE MUCH INROADS INTO THE FINGER LKS/MOHAWK VLY          
ZNS SO FAR.  LL RH AND QVEC PROGS FROM THE ETA/RUC INDICATE THAT THIS           
TREND MAY CONT TO PLAY ITSELF OUT THIS AFTN.  MEANWHILE...CLDS/PCPN             
WITH LWR GRT LKS S/WV ARE PROGGED TO MOVE NE AND MISS THE AREA THIS             
AFTN.  CERTAINLY ENUF HTG/MOIST FOR SCT-BKN CU TO POP...THO.  DECIDED           
TO PLAY IT AS P/SNY FOR THE AFTN IN THE FINGER LKS WITH POPS DECREASED          
TO LO CHC VALUES.  WENT SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR THE CLDS IN THE           
WRN MOHAWK VLY BUT STILL LWRD THE POPS.                                         
MAX TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A BIT NWRN SXNS WITH MORE SUN XPCTD.                   
OTHWS...HI TEMP FCST SEEMS TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.                               
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
JUREWICZ                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KALY 010826  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
925 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
LITTLE ACTVTY OVER CWA THIS EVE AS IN SUBSIDENCE AREA BETWEEN SHORT             
WVS TO W AND SE. THESE FEATURES PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC            
AND WELL OFFSHORE TO SE...AND INITIALIZED WELL IN 18Z MESO-ETA. THIS            
MODELS SHEARS OUT VORT OVER CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT...AND WEAKENS WAVE TO            
SE AS IT MOVES NW. ACTVTY OVER CENTRL NC WILL STAY W OF AREA AS IT              
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. BUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHWRS APPEARING 60-100               
MILES OFF COAST COULD MAKE IT INLAND NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WEAKENING             
WAVE COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACTVTY TOWARD MORNING. WILL KEEP 20               
POPS ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT WITH PT CLDY SKY COVER.                                
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR FCST MINS IN MID 70S.                                   
CWF: MSAS INDICATING SFC HI HAS NOSED IN TO AROUND HAT...RESULTING              
IN SLACKENING OF PRES GRAD ALONG S COAST. BUOY AND COASTAL OBS                  
VERIFY THIS WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BLO 15 KTS AND SEAS BLO 6                
FT...WHILE NRN SECTIONS STILL 20-25. MESO-ETA AND RUC INDICATE THIS             
TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. PER COORD WITH ILM...WILL DROP SCA S OF             
OCRACOKE INLET.                                                                 
.MHX...SCA OCRACOKE INLET N AND SOUNDS.                                         
JBM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 020119  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
920 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
DEEP SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH HI PRES OVER THE WRN                 
ATLANTIC SFC THRU 200 MB. KLTX VWP IS INDICATIVE OF THIS...SHOWING              
10-20 KT SSW FLOW THRU 16 KFT. 21Z RUC SHOWS S/WV WHICH HELPED                  
SUPPORT ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND EVENING WEAKENING AND RETROGRADING SW            
OF THE CWA TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF H5 HI PRES OVER THE GULF              
COAST STATES. NEXT S/WV IS SHOWN BY THE RUC TO APPROACH AFTER 06Z               
BUT APPEARS TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE FA.                                        
RADAR RETURNS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY               
OFF THE GA/SC COAST. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT RAIN                  
IS UNLIKELY FOR US OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A                  
COUPLE OF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER AND BRING WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT                
RAIN TO AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE A 20 POP IN.                       
BASED ON 01Z TEMPS/DEWPOINTS...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO            
MID 70S AS CURRENTLY FCST.                                                      
CWF: AS NOTED BY MHX AND CHS IN COORD CALLS...SFC PRES GRAD HAS                 
RELAXED QUITE A BIT S OF CAPE HATTERAS. COASTAL OBS AND BUOY 41004              
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. DON'T SEE ANY FEATURES IN                
STORE OVERNIGHT THAT WOULD BRING US BACK UP TO SCA CONDITIONS SO                
WILL DROP ADVISORY WITH UPDATE.                                                 
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
MORGAN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 020039  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
950 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
RUC-II MODEL SHOWING THAT DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST THRU              
THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BERMUDA RIDGE. LATEST VSBL                
SATPIX BEARS THIS OUT...SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER ALL              
BUT OUR EXTREME WRN COUNTIES. WITH THIS EXTRA SUNSHINE...WILL NEED              
TO BUMP MAX TEMPS UP JUST A HAIR THIS AFTERNOON. PTCLOUDY STILL                 
LOOKS GOOD FOR SKY CONDITIONS WITH CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. MORNING             
SOUNDING PARAMETERS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONVECTION WITH                
MODIFIED LI OF -7 AND CAPES AROUND 3200 J/KG. ONLY REAL TRIGGER WILL            
LIKELY BE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SO 30 PCT POPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT               
AND WILL LOWER POPS WHERE NEEDED.                                               
COASTAL...WINDS CURRENT RUNNING A FEW KNOTS EITHER SIDE OF 20                   
KT...BUT LATEST RUC-II AND 00Z ETA 10-METER WINDS STILL SHOW                    
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND WINDS UP TO NEAR 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.               
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TRENDS.                                                   
.MHX...SCA ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.                                       
COLLINS                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 011346  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1010 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                      
MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT APPEARS TO AMOUNT OF               
CLOUD COVER...AS LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SOME THINNING OF              
THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  UPPER AIR TONIGHT SHOWS              
SOME DRYING AT 8H AND 00Z RUC ALSO SUPPORTS THIS.  RUC ALSO                     
INDICATES SOME WEAK WAA OVERNIGHT AND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STILL            
RATHER LOW FEEL THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY REFORM...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN            
ZONES.  WITH 40-80M HEIGHT RISES ACROSS A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN AND            
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND RATHER WARM LOW AND MID LEVEL                              
TEMPERATURES...CHANCES FOR TSRA ARE ALMOST NIL.  WILL REMOVE POPS               
FOR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND MAY ADJUST CLOUD COVER.                 
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
6                                                                               
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KTSA 020220  ok                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
920 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE AS STATED.  THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE              
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY IN THE MORNING FROM THE            
DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS             
FROM DDC..AMA..OUN HAVE ALL DEVELOPED SIGNIFICANT CAPS AND SHOULD               
HELP INHIBIT CONVECTION AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH 850-500              
MB THICKNESS WOULD INDICATE A MORE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT.                          
CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR...BUT LATEST SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THE              
CLOUDS ARE STARTING A WEST TO EAST EROSION ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.             
00Z RUC MODEL SEEMS TO ANALYZE FOR THE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WHERE             
THE CLOUDS ARE AT THIS TIME...AND FORECASTS THE CLEARING TO                     
CONTINUE...BUT SLOW DOWN BEFORE REACHING ALL OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA              
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SO WILL ADJUST CLOUD FORECAST FOR THOSE                
AREAS TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...OR CLEARING LATE.                           
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD...GIVEN THE HIGH DEW                     
POINTS... CLOUDS AND SOUTHELRY BREEZES.                                         
FCSTID = 02                                                                     
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 012037  ok                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1000 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                      
FIRST SHORTWAVE OFF THE COAST EXPECTED TO SPIRAL TOWARDS THE CWA                
LOOKS TO BE HEADING INTO HAT INSTEAD. IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE WITH IT             
A GOOD BIT OF OUR POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY               
MORNING HRS. WILL NOT DISCOUNT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP                  
OFF OF THE WATER LATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY MORNING MAINLY IN THE               
COASTAL SECTIONS. CURRENT AREA OF PRECIP IS DIMINISHING AS DAYTIME              
HEATING FADES. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AT BEST. WILL                
CONTINUE POPS AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTIONS. TEMP               
FCST LOOKS REASONABLE BUT MAY TWEAK DOWN A BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBS.            
CWF...THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN QUITE A BIT LAST 3 TO 4 HOURS WITH               
41004/41008/FBIS1 ALL AT 10 KTS OR LESS CURRENTLY. WVS ALSO DOWN WI             
3 TO 4 FT IN MOST SPOTS. LUKNG AT MESOETA/RUC ONLY FEATURE WORTH                
NOTING IS WK VORT WELL E OF SC CSTL WATERS. WI PROGRSSN OF THE FTRE             
GNRLLY TO THE N...DO NOT THNK IT WL HV BIG IMPACT ON CSTL WATERS OF             
SC/GA. WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT INCR IN WINDS DUE TO NOCTRNL JET THAT              
NRLY ALWAYS FORMS OFF THE CST THS TIME OF YR...DO NOT THNK IT WL BE             
ENUF TO PRODUCE SCA CONDS. MAY SEE ABT 15 KT OR 15 TO 20 KT                     
OVRNGT...BUT THNK IT WL ONLY RSLT IN 5 FT SEAS AT MOST. WITH                    
APPARENTLY NO OTHER FACTORS COMING INTO PLAY OVRNGT AND CRNT CONDS              
BEING WHAT THEY ARE...REALLY LEFT WI NO OTHER CHOICE BUT TO DROP SCA            
WI THIS ISSUANCE. AS MENT PREVSLY...WL KP WNDS ARND 15 KT AND WVS               
ARND 4 FT.                                                                      
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SLF/WOODWORTH                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 020106  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
905 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
RUC SHOWS AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DECREASING ACORSS PIEDMONT.             
ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO MOUNTAINS AT 06Z...THEN             
INTO SC MIDLANDS BY 09Z. VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION                 
MOVES E OF AREA BY 03 Z BUT NEXT VORT TO APPROACH MOUNTAINS AFTER               
06Z AND REACH TN BORDER AT 09Z. WITH ACTIVITY FIRING IN NE GA AND               
WEAK ECHOES IN NC MOUNTAINS...WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS                  
OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS AREA. GSP RUNNING A                 
BIT WARM BUT OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR. AVL DEW POINT SUGGESTS             
WARMER NC MOUNTAIN MINIMUMS BUT THIS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT AND MOST               
OF MOUNTAINS COOLED TO MID 60S. WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES ALONE.                  
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 020043  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
240 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
BEST TSTM CVRG THIS AFTERNOON ACRS NW NC...FORMING IN SFC MOISTURE              
FLUX CONV AREA...AS PER LATEST LAPS DATA. 15Z RUC DATA KEEPS LLVL               
THETA-E RIDGING ACRS WESTERN 1/2 OF CWFA THRU 03Z TONIGHT...SO EXPECT           
BETTER CVRG HERE & WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TONIGHT.                    
THE TRANSITION TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE US THIS               
PERIOD IS STILL EXPECTED BUT SHORT RANGE MDL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH             
RESPECT TO UPPER RIDGE AMPLITUDE & STEERAGE OF S/WV FURTHER NORTH...            
ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST TWO PERIODS.  THRU 18Z FRI...NGM DEPICTS            
UPPER RIDGE TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH ONLY MINIMAL VORT ENERGY & OMEGA.          
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AVN/ETA PATTERN IS A LITTLE FLATTER...WITH STGR OMEGA          
& MORE VORT ENERGY RIPPLING EASTWARD INTO THE CWFA...PROBABLY THE RESULT        
OF MCS REMNANTS.                                                                
EVEN THE LEAST AGRESSIVE NGM SOLUTION CRANKS OUT CHC POPS EACH PERIOD           
THRU SATURDAY WITH PERSISTENT TEMP & LLVL RH PROFILE & FEEL THIS IS THE         
MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN AMT OF CVRG WE HAVE HAD OVER PAST TWO            
DAYS. MRF STILL ADVERTISES GREATER THAN 594+ DM 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE         
CWFA DAY 3-5 & ASSOCIATED CAP PROBABLY WILL BE QUITE STRONG. GIVEN              
THIS...FEEL THAT DIURNAL TSTM CVRG WILL RANGE FROM JUST ISOLATED TO             
WIDELY SCATTERED & PRIMARILY ACRS THE MTNS.                                     
AVL  68/85/67/86  4333                                                          
CLT  72/89/71/91  3333                                                          
GSP  70/88/69/90  3333                                                          
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
CSH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 011426  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
948 AM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
09Z RUC DATA SUPPORTS EARLIER MDL TRENDS OF RIPPLING VORT EAST OF THE           
CFWA THIS AM. FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE IN WEAK NVA REGION         
OF AFOREMENTIONED VORT TO KEEP CVRG IN CHC CATEGORY. MODIFIED 12Z AREA          
SNDGS YEILDED MAX CAPES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH PW'S AROUND 125% OF            
NORMAL. SO...SLOW MOVERS & LCL HVY RAIN PRODUCERS POSSIBLE. WITH                
HEIGHTS RISING...SOURCES OF LARGER SCALE FORCING BECOMING LESS                  
OBVIOUS...BUT BASED ON UPSTREAM 88D/SAT DATA...LOOKS LIKE SOME                  
WEAK IMPULES STILL WILL ROTATE THRU & PROBABLY SOME SMALLER SCALE               
BNDRYS FLOATING AROUND THIS AM AS WELL TO FOCUS ACTIVITY.                       
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
CSH                                                                             
 sc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
800 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
UPDATES ON TAP FOR MOST OF CWA...MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING               
NOW THAT AFTN CU IS DISSIPATING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST               
ARE ABOUT OUT OF CWA.  ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING/POPS OF             
OVERNIGHT TSRA CHCS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...AS 21Z RUC SHOWS GREATER             
LLJ ACTION AND 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN COUNTIES                 
THROUGH 09Z.  NO CHANGES TO TEMPS OR WINDS AT THIS TIME.                        
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
 HAMEN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 020025  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
625 PM MDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
COMPLICATED EVENING FORECAST AS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSES A                
CHALLENGE. A FEW STORMS FIRED OVER THE NRN BLKHLS...POSSIBLY DUE TO             
LOCAL CONVERGENCE. A LARGE AREA OF STORMS WAS OVER CNTRL MT AND HAD             
A TRAJECTORY WHICH WOULD BRING THEM ACROSS THE NRN CWA. THESE WERE              
BEING SUPPORTED BY THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS                 
CNTRL MT...AND THEY SHOULD BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY STRONG 700 MB WAA            
THAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. MOREOVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE               
WAS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA INTO FAR ERN WY AND WRN              
SD. THE 21Z RUC PROGS THIS TO CONTINUE INCREASING...WITH SIGNIFICANT            
CONVECTIVE QPF FROM THE NRN BLKHLS ACROSS SCNTRL SD OVERNIGHT. AT               
THIS TIME...I HAVE ONLY UPDATED FOR ONGOING CONVECTION AND A SLIGHT             
CHANCE OVER NWRN SD. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE...               
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO UPDATE FOR MUCH HIGHER POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE              
NRN HALF OF THE CWA. FINALLY...ALTHOUGH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS QUITE               
IMPRESSIVE AT 56 M/S...THE CAPE IS LOW WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.            
THUS...SEVERE WEATHER IF ANY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WIND GUSTS.                   
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
BUNKERS                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 012121  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
325 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
DIFFICULTIES THIS FCST PD IN PCPN ONCE AGAIN. IN THE SHORT TERM...              
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REFIRED ALONG I 90 FM NR KFSD TO KBKX...WITH SOME            
WDLY SCT ACTIVITY CLOSER TO KHON. BLV THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND AN                 
ISOLD TSTM ARE A THREAT ACRS CWA UNTIL SUNSET...WITH COOL TEMPS AT              
700MB AND A RELATIVELY WM GROUND. A FUNNEL CLD WAS SPOTTED NR LAKE              
HERON IN JACKSON CO EARLIER THIS AFTN...AS A RESULT OF A RAPIDLY                
FORMING SHWR FINDING AN UPDRAFT. PRBLY BEST DESCRIBED AS A LANDSPOUT            
BUT IT WAS CERTAINLY NO COLD AIR FUNNEL.                                        
THE NXT MID LVL SHORTWV AND VORT FILAMENT ROLLS THROUGH LATER TNGT.             
NEW RUC HAS MOST QPF IN SD BY MIDNIGHT...BUT AM LEANING MORE TOWARD             
THE ETA QPF WHERE MOST ACTIVITY MAY FIRE IN NEB...MOVG EWD TO SEWRD.            
AN MCS MAY GET GOING ON THE NOSE OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONG LLVL JET             
IN THE WEST...SHIFTING TOWARD THE CWA LATE TNGT. INSTABILITY                    
INCREASES AND BOTH THE NGM AND ETA SHOW GOOD LLVL CONV/UA DIV BY 12Z            
FRI. IN ADDN...MID LVL LIFT IS TREMENDOUS WITH A LARGE AMT OF WAA.              
AM THINKING THE BETTER CHCS WL BE ALONG THE SRN PTN OF CWA...LESSER             
MOVG NWD. THIS IS DUE TO THE ABV MENTIONED LLVL CONV/UA DIV AND LIFT            
BEING STRONG OVR THE SOUTH.                                                     
SHWRS/TSTMS MAY LINGER FRI MRNG...BUT THEN A LARGE AMT OF MID LVL               
WARMING BEGINS TO MOVE IN ON FRI...COUPLED WITH A VERY STRONG LLVL              
JET OF OVR 40 KTS. THTE RIDGING IS STRONG ON THE WRN SIDE OF                    
CWA...WITH VERY HIGH CAPES AND VERY UNSTABLE LI'S. ALL TOLD...WITH              
THIS KIND LIFT...INSTABILITY AND LITTLE CIN...THERE COULD BE A                  
REFIRE OF TSTMS BY AFTN...ESP ACRS THE EAST WITH THE LLVL JET. BY               
FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER LLVL BNDRY AND SHRTWV TRY TO OOZE DOWN FM THE               
NW. HOWEVER THE CAP BECOMES STRONG...ESP OVR THE SOUTH. CINS ARE                
HIGH...BUT AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT THE ETA AND AVN ARE OVERDOING              
THE WM AIR A BIT TOO MUCH AT 700MB...AND FOLLOWED THE NGM CAP FRI               
NIGHT AND ERLY SAT. THIS TIME...THE LIFT RIDES THE CAP ACRS THE NRN             
PTN OF CWA WITH GOOD THTE RIDGING. SO ANOTHER MCS MAY FORM OVR THE              
NORTH. FOLLOWED THE ETA SFC PTRN AND DO NOT BLV ANY SORT OF REAL                
COOLING TYPE BNDRY WL MAKE IT THRU CWA ON SAT...SO IGNORED FWC TEMPS            
ON SAT. HOWEVER WITH MOIST GROUND...FAN MAY BE TOO WM SAT AND SUN.              
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
FUHS                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 012016  sd                                      

TENNESSEE/MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
833 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
*****************NOTICE OF CHANGE JULY 20*******************                    
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION BECOMES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
AFOS/NOAA WEATHER WIRE ID       MEMSFDMEM      MEMAFDMEM                        
WMO/FAMILY OF SERVICES ID       FXUS74 KMEM    FXUS64 KMEG                      
MEMSFDMEM WILL BE DISCONTINUED AS OF 1100 AM CDT JULY 20.                       
************************************************************                    
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX FM OLD MCS HELPING TO INITIATE NEW                
COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER SE KY/NW TN THIS EVENING. 21Z RUC MOVES THIS             
SYS INTO NRN MID TN AND PLATEAU OVRNGT. WL INCR POPS NRN MID TN AND             
ADD POPS ELSW ACRS MID TN..PER AFDBNA. E TN LOOKS FINE. WL DROP POPS            
FM NW TN ONCE SHRAS/TSRAS MOVE INTO MID TN.                                     
.MEM...NONE.                                                                    
SJM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOHX 020108  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
800 PM CDT THU JUL 01 1999                                                      
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED UPPER LVL VORT CENTER          
OVER SWRN KY, AND SUPPORTS LATEST RUC SOLUTION THAT NOW DROPS A                 
VORTICITY AXIS SEWD INTO MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT (IN CLOSER AGREEMENT               
WITH "WETTER" 12Z ETA THAN DRIER 12Z "NGM"). THUS, EVEN THOUGH STORMS           
WILL BE MOVING INTO ONLY A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, BLV ONGOING             
ACTIVITY AND ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WARRANTS AT LEAST A MODEST              
INCREASE IN POPS FOR OUR MOST NORTHERN SET OF ZONES (AND WILL                   
PROBABLY AMEND FORECAST TO CARRY MENTION OF "SCATTERED                          
THUNDERSTORMS" AND A 40% POP). WILL ALSO PROBABLY GO AHEAD AND                  
INTRODUCE A 20% POP INTO THE OTHER ZN SETS JUST IN CASE TSTMS HOLD              
TOGETHER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. IF STORM THREAT INCREASES                
FOR THOSE AREAS, WILL BUMP POPS UP LATER.                                       
STATS FROM 00Z BNA RAOB:                                                        
LI  -2    CAPE 727 J/KG      SWEAT  396      TT'S  43                           
CAP  1 DEG C    PW 1/75 INCH                                                    
19                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 020055  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
855 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
MRX FORECAST/COUNTY WARNING AREA IS ACTUALLY RAIN FREE FOR NOW.                 
IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS HUGE MCS HAS DIED OVER AR/MO.  SMALLER                  
MCS IS MOVING EAST INTO WRN PARTS OF OHIO VALLEY REGION ALONG                   
SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT MAY BE BACK BUILDING OVER SW KY/NW TN AT                 
THIS TIME.  SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN ADVANCE OF THE MCS                   
FROM W OF BNA TO NEAR MKL...LIKELY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.                   
JUST VIEWED 21Z RUC MODEL...WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO 12Z NGM MODEL                  
IN OFFERING A FAVORABLE 850-700 MB DIFFLUENT THICKNESS PATTERN                  
OVER ERN KY/SWRN VA/NE TN.  EVEN IF MCS WEAKENS...IT COULD CERTAINLY            
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUR WAY. THUS...FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF           
LATE NIGHT CONVECTION IN OUR AREA WILL BE SWRN VA AND NRN MOST TN               
ZONES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE...SO I PREFER TO             
KEEP CURRENT RAIN CHANCES INTACT...IN SPITE OF NO PCPN AT THIS TIME.            
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A              
BKN TO OVC LOWER CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...             
LOOK FOR INCREASING MID-HI CLOUDS FOR ESPECIALLY NRN MOST ZONES...              
THUS MAY OPT FOR BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN ALL BUT SRN ZONES.  CLOUDS           
SHOULD KEEP PATCHY FOG TO A MINIMUM...AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING. MIN             
TEMP FORECAST LOOKS FINE GIVEN LATEST DEWPOINTS OF MID 60S (SWRN VA)            
TO LWR 70S (SRN ZONES).  #10                                                    
TG                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KMEG 011957  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
901 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN BIG COUNTRY. HOWEVER... 21Z       
RUC PLACES 30-40 KT LLJ ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PER                
CONVERSATION WITH FTW OFFICE... CAUTION LAKES WARRANTED FOR EASTERN BIG         
COUNTRY.                                                                        
17                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KFWD 020158  tx                                      

WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
200 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT 12 PM EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF CDS TO SOUTH OF            
LBB TO SOUTH OF HOB. THE RUC SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING BY 00Z.              
THE LATEST ETA MODEL FCST SHOWS A BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER FA THROUGH THE            
PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLY OVER MS RIVER VALLEY IN THE NEXT 48                
HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY           
THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH                      
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES.                                          
THE EXTENDED RANGE MODEL SHOWS EXTENSIVE H5 HIGH OVER EASTERN HALF              
OF US WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. NO             
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.                             
PRELIM CCF                                                                      
LBB 73/98/71/96  0000                                                           
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KLUB 011655  tx                                      

WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1153 AM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                      
MCS OUTFLOW IS ACTING MORE LIKE A FRONT. BOUNDARY IS FROM KGAG TO               
JUST SOUTH OF KCVS. WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT NORTHWEST AT KLBB.              
VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATE NORTH WINDS AT 20 KNOTS ABOUT 6KFT. THIS              
CORRELATES WELL WITH THE LATEST RUC WHICH INDICATES WINDS TO STAY               
NORTHERLY...THEN SHIFT EASTERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. WILL UPDATE                
WIND DIRECTION FOR MOST OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, EASTERN AREAS                
LOOK GOOD SO WILL NOT UPDATE THEM.                                              
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
AC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KFWD 011624  tx                                      

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
247 AM MDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
ROGUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER UT PORTION OF CWA LATE LAST EVENING           
AND CONTINUES ACROSS CO PORTION THIS MORNING. AM ATTRIBUTING TO VORT            
CENTER INDICATED ON RUC MODEL THAT MOVED UP FROM NORTHERN AZ. ETA AND           
AVN SEEM TO MISS THE FEATURE COMPLETELY...WHILE NGM PICKS IT UP BUT             
HAS IT TOO FAR SOUTH. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND MODELS ALL SHOWING A            
MOIST AREA OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM DRIFTING NORTH ALONG WITH SMALL VORT             
CENTER FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN UT/CO AROUND NOON TODAY.                 
ADDITIONALLY...NGM AND AVN NOW CALLING FOR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S               
TODAY AND SATURDAY. THUS BELIEVE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WORTH                
MENTIONING TODAY...THOUGH EXPECT THAT THOSE THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE             
MOSTLY DRY WITH GUSTY WIND. THUNDERSTORMS ON TOP OF THE VERY HIGH TO            
EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF CWA...DUE TO THE RECENT HOT AND              
DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE             
TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER ON THE FRONT BURNER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.           
OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH AVN STILL RUNNING              
WARMEST AND NGM COOLEST AND MORE MOIST. ALL SHOWING 700MB                       
TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AND FWC/FAN GUIDANCE             
BOTH VERY CLOSE FOR FIRST 24 HOURS WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS. HOWEVER              
HAVE TO QUESTION THIS OUTCOME DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED                   
CLOUDINESS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. AM STILL ON THE FENCE WITH THIS ISSUE            
BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS PULLING BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE.                
IN EXTENDED...LOW WILL DIG DOWN PACIFIC COAST POPPING RIDGE OVER EAST           
COAST STATES AND STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO CWA.                     
HOWEVER...AS TROUGH BEGINS MOVING INLAND IT WILL AGAIN FLATTEN THE              
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BEFORE IT                      
REESTABLISHES OVER THE WEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS                  
WESTERN CO TO REMAIN WITHIN REACH OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE TROUGH            
AND RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND TO PERSIST             
AS WELL. MEANTIME MOST ENERGY WITH TROUGH TO PASS NORTH OF CWA WITH             
ONLY SMALL VORT CENTERS PASSING THROUGH CWA SO CAN/T DISCOUNT                   
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL LEAVE EXTENDED AS IS.  GL                 
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO               
THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.                                           
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 012059  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
145 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
EVIDENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH SEEN IN 60 METER HEIGHT              
RISES AT 500MB LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...            
MAY BE A WEAK...ALMOST WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ERN                 
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...HARD TO FIND. VORT MAX THAT            
SPAWNED EVENING TSRA IS EAST OF THE FA...BUT MORE SHOWERS AND TSRA              
FORMING PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND SE MO. WVAPOR...LAPS AND RUC SHOW                
ANOTHER LOBE AT 700MB IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH LAPS                  
SHOWING INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SRN PORTIONS OF SE MO INTO SRN                    
SECTIONS OF WRN KY. CONTINUE TO FAVOR ETA...AVN SOLUTIONS AS THEIR              
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN DECENT CONSIDERING DIFFICULT REGIME TO FCST.               
WILL MAINTAIN A CHC POP TODAY...AS THE ETA KEEPS K-INDICES RUNNING              
28 TO 32. HOWEVER...H8 THETA-E VALUES LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH              
UPPER SUPPORT BECOMING INCREASINGLY WEAK. HOWEVER IT BECOMES RATHER             
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES FCST TO REACH 2000- 3500 J/KG...AND 700MB RH                
REMAINS ABV 50 PERCENT. FOR TONIGHT...NIL UPPER SUPPORT OR LOW TROP             
FOCUS. AND WITH MEAN RH LOWERING...SHOULD BE DRY...WARM AND HUMID.              
CONCERN ARISES IN THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH BIG OL' UPPER RIDGE                 
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...ETA AND AVN BOTH HINTING AT ROTATING HIGHER            
MEAN RH BACK AROUND TO THE WRN PERIPHREY AS THE CENTROID SHIFTS MORE            
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE FOURTH OF JULY. SINCE WE HAVE THE                
TERM "LITTLE" OR NO RAIN GOING...WILL LEAVE ALONE. MAY HAVE TO BE               
ADDED TO FCST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. FMR NUMBERS LIKELY               
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE...ENCROACHING ON 100 DEGREES. WILL HAVE TOO MUCH             
ENERGY SPENT EVAPORATING "RAIN SOAKED AIR". LATEST NWP NOS ALREADY              
TRENDING DOWN...AND WILL HEDGE DOWN A FEW DEGREES BEYOND 24 HOURS.              
NONE THE LESS...UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND HEAT LIKELY UPCOMING.                
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
CN                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KRLX 020614  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 PM EDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH                  
LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA THREAT.                                                   
SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN GRT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                
SUPPORTED BY INSTABILITY WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING 850                  
MOISTURE PRODUCING TOTAL TOTALS AROUND 52. CAPES THOUGH GENERALLY               
ONLY IN 300-700 J/KG RANGE. KMQT 88D INDICATED SHRA FADING LAST FEW             
HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONE ISOLD SHRA NEAR IMT SHOULD              
ALSO FADE QUICKLY BY 04Z.                                                       
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING AOB 800 MB PER RUC FCST SNDGS AND AREA             
00Z SNDGS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING MID/UPR CLOUDS EXPECT AREAS            
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GROW. KSAW ALREADY REPORTING 1/4SM IN FOG              
AND LOW CLOUDS LINGER AT KERY AND KCMX. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN             
THE MID TO UPPER 50S GOING MIN TEMP FCST ON TRACK.                              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 020227  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
235 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
FOR SHORT TERM...LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE AT THIS            
TIME. RUC SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BEST AND HAS ASSOCIATED VORT MAX            
AND LIFT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTION OF THIS CWFA                
AFTER DAYBREAK. MOST PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR                
AREA.                                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS         
AND ALOFT.                                                                      
LATER TODAY WE WILL AGAIN SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS                  
DEVELOP...AS WE SEE WEAK DPVA...UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN AREA. HARD TO PIN EXACT AREA DOWN BUT BEST              
UPLIFT LATE IN THE DAY IS CENTERED OVER FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN                   
PIEDMONT OF NC. WIND SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES NOT ALL                
THAT EXCITING SO EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW                  
MOVING STORMS.                                                                  
LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY               
COMING AROUND BERMUDA HIGH THAT IS NOSING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC.                 
I WILL DROP MOST MENTION OF PRECIP FROM ZONES FOR SATURDAY...EXCEPT             
FOR SOME POSSIBLE UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE          
SEE LITTLE DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE.                             
PRELIMINARY CCF                                                                 
AVL...84/67/85 3/2/3                                                            
CLT...88/71/90 3/3/2                                                            
GSP...89/70/90 3/3/2                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RBN                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 020138  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
250 AM CDT FRI JULY 2 1999                                                      
WSR-88D AND IR IMAGERY SHOW NW-SE ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS                
APPROACHING ABR CWA FROM WEST...IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW SLOWLY                
MOVING INTO SW SD AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD.                    
SITUATION SEEMS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED BY ETA AND RUC. AVN ALSO HAS A              
HANDLE ON THE GENERAL SITUATION...THOUGH DETAILS MUCH BETTER                    
DEPICTED ON ETA. LAPS DATA THROUGH 07Z SHOWS THETA-E RIDGE POKING               
INTO SW AND S-CENTRAL SD AND CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD SW PORTION OF             
CWA. LAPS CAPE VALUES RISING THIS SAME AREA BUT AS OF 07Z REMAIN                
BELOW 1000 J/KG...IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ETA FORECAST.                  
STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST...GENERALLY PARALLEL TO MEAN 700-500H                
FLOW. POPS FOR EARLY PORTION OF FIRST PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO              
FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS. FOR NOW...WILL LIKELY INCLUDE EARLY              
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COUNTIES                 
WHICH WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR...BUT WILL LEAVE FINAL POPS UNTIL JUST              
BEFORE SENDING ZONES...AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. BEYOND THIS FIRST               
WAVE...ETA FORECAST LI WELL INTO NEGATIVE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT              
ETA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY FOR MORE    
THAN GOOD CU DEVELOPMENT UNTIL FRI EVE-NIGHT WHEN NEXT SHORT WAVE               
APPROACHES. HENCE WILL INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING ANOTHER                
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT ETA 700H TEMPS INCREASING ABOVE            
10C INDICATE MID LEVELS MAY BE CAPPED AND THUS INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT              
OF STRONG STORMS. NGM SURFACE FORECAST APPEARS TOO FAST AND THUS                
HAVE DISCOUNTED FWC TEMPS...ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY.                     
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 020206  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
800 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
UPDATES ON TAP FOR MOST OF CWA...MAINLY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING               
NOW THAT AFTN CU IS DISSIPATING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST               
ARE ABOUT OUT OF CWA.  ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING/POPS OF             
OVERNIGHT TSRA CHCS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...AS 21Z RUC SHOWS GREATER             
LLJ ACTION AND 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN COUNTIES                 
THROUGH 09Z.  NO CHANGES TO TEMPS OR WINDS AT THIS TIME.                        
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
 HAMEN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 020025  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
125 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
ETA/RUC MODELS PREFERRED IN HANDLING OF MCS THIS MORNING.                       
FRIDAY STARTS OFF WITH A BANG WITH LIKELY TSTMS AND MOSTLY                      
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS SHORT-WAVE WEAKENS AND SLOWS. DESPITE EARLY                
CLOUDS & PRECIP...TEMPS WILL CLIMB WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.                     
REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS OVER AREA AT SURFACE.              
DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER SE US FROM SW AND BECOMES NEARLY                   
CENTERED OVER MRX BY END OF PERIOD. MODELS DEPICT NORTHERN JET                  
STREAM MAINTAINING A SHARP EDGE AND FAIRLY ZONAL EARLY ON. THEN                 
CONTINUES TO MOVE THE JET NORTH AS RIDGE BUILDS IN. THICKNESS                   
DIVERGENCE REFLECTED BY THIS SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN NOCTURNAL                   
MCS TYPE ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF MRX. TEMPS ALOFT ARE              
ALREADY WARM OVER REGION (500 MB -6C). WARM AND MUGGY.                          
CHA TB 087/071 091/072 092 17732                                                
TYS TB 087/070 090/071 092 17732                                                
TRI TB 085/067 090/069 090 17732                                                
OQT TB 088/070 090/071 092 17732                                                
SON                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOHX 020249 AMD  tn                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY                                            
240 AM MDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
WV LOOP SHOWS FAST ZONAL FLOW OVR N U.S WITH JET AXIS TO OUR NORTH OVR          
S/CEN MT.  FLOW BUCKLING TO THE WEST AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVR CEN PACIFIC           
AND LOW DIGS S ACRS BC...NR VANCOUVER AT 06Z.  S/W RIDGE OVR ID WITH            
TRAIN OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVG THRU FLOW ACRS NW U.S.  AT SFC...07Z            
ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW OVR NE PNHDL/NE CO WITH SECONDARY LOW OVR CEN WY             
AND SFC TROF EXTENDING NWD ACRS BIG HORN BASIN.                                 
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE OVR NEXT 48 HRS WILL BE TEMPS AND WNDS.  ETA 00Z            
RUN WAS HANDLING 5H FTRS BEST WITH 6H FCST COMPARISON TO 06Z RUC INIT           
NEARLY IDENTICAL AND REPRESENTATIVE.  7H TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM                 
ANOTHER 3C TO 4C TDY AS FLOW BACKS WITH TEMP ADV ABV 5H NEUTRAL. SFC            
TROF AXIS TO REMAIN NRLY STATIONARY TDY WITH LOW LEVEL SE FLOW WORKING          
INTO NE ZNS.  W/SW WINDS WILL MAINLY BE A FACTOR WEST OF SFC TROF IN            
JAC AND SW ZNS TDY.  BRZY AT BEST IN BASINS AND CPR.  FWC/FAN TEMPS             
CLOSE IN S AND E ZNS BUT FWC WAY TOO COOL IN N ZNS.  JUST ISOLD POPS            
IN ZNS 15...27>28 THIS AFTN.  S/W MOVES ACRS SE WITH BEST INSTABILITY           
AND DYNAMICS TO THE EAST OF FA.  LI/S OVR THESE ZNS 0 TO -1 WITH CAPES          
300 TO 500 J/KG.  THETA-E RIDGE OVR PLAINS WITH GRADIENT OVR NE                 
PNHNDL/WSTRN SD.  MAY SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG E SLOPES OF BIG            
HORNS WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW THOUGH HIGHER 50+ DPS ALSO PROGGED            
TO REMAIN MOSTLY EAST.                                                          
ON SAT...SFC TROF SHIFTS EAST INTO PLAINS AS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES           
OVER.  THIS WILL BE BETTER SCENARIO FOR WINDS TO BLOW IN E ZNS.  NO             
POPS AS MSTR/INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS STAY EAST. TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES          
WARMER BUT NOT AS WARM AS FAN NUMBERS.  ON THE FOURTH...AVN LIFTS AND           
WKNS UPR LOW INTO CAN WITH 7H GRADIENT RELAXING OVR FA FOR LESS WIND            
AND DRY DAY.                                                                    
.RIW...NONE.                                                                    
AEM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KCYS 020805  wy                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1046 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                      
CURRENTLY...RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE                
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. THESE SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WEST AND THE 12Z RUC PACKAGE IS INDICATING A           
WEAK MID OR UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY MID                
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO              
LIKELY POPS LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH EASTERLY FLOW DID               
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES.                      
BLS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMLB 021336  fl                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
935 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
TODAY...MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN               
PLAINS.  A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS STILL            
INDICATED IN RUC STREAMLINE ANALYSIS NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.               
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT EVIDENCE OF THIS WITH MORE SOUTHEAST              
COMPONENT AT CAPE CANAVERAL THAN TAMPA.  THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY             
THE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH                
WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT                
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH ABOUT NOON (EST) THEN FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT TO            
THE INTERIOR.  THOUGH SOUNDINGS WERE VERY MOIST...CONSIDERABLE MID              
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE SOMEWHAT.  NOT             
PLANNING ON ANY POSSIBLE UPDATES UNTIL LATE MORNING.                            
MARINE...BUOYS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST               
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT.                                                           
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
LASCODY                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTAE 021324  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
249 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
...GLOBALLY...                                                                  
GLOBAL MOSAIC OF GMS-5...GOES 8/10...AND METEOSAT 7 WATER VAPOR                 
IMAGES SHOWS RETROGRESSION ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE IS WELL UNDERWAY AS            
A 4 WAVE PATTERN CONTINUES. A JET OF 100+ KNOTS (BASED ON DARKNESS)             
RUNNING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL RETROGRESS             
THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES TO THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY             
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WOULD PLACE MOST OF THE CONTINENT                
UNDER A LARGE RIDGE AND A RESULTANT HEAT WAVE FOR THE COMING WEEK.              
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD RETROGRESS INTO THE             
WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ALLOW A TROF TO DEVELOP ALONG             
THE EAST COAST WITH A RESULTANT TROF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.                    
NET RESULT HERE IS A HEAT WAVE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH                       
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES OR              
BETTER DURING THE DAY. THE RING OF FIRE WILL BE ACTIVE BUT IS                   
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. WHEN THE                 
RIDGE RETROGRESSES INTO THE ROCKIES AND WEST COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK            
THE RING OF FIRE SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN.             
...LOCALLY...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA HAS A SHORTWAVE AROUND 700 MB MOVING              
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT QG FORCING              
...A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KNOTS...AND THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A JET            
STREAK WAS LOWERING CONDESATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALLOWING ELEVATED             
TSRA TO DEVELOP. A 90 KNOT JET WITH EMBEDDED 120 KNOT JET STREAKS               
RAN FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONAL             
SHORTWAVES WERE LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST BRISTISH COLUMBIA AND THE GULF             
OF ALASKA. IR AND FOG PRODUCT INDICATE OTHER THAN POSSIBLY A BIT OF             
THIN CI ESSENTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE ACROSS THE AREA. 06Z SURFACE               
ANALYSIS HAS A WARM FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITH A LOW IN              
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ANALYSIS HAS LOW AND MID 60 DEW POINTS             
ACROSS THE AREA WITH 70+ DEW POINTS AS NEARBY AS THE I70 CORRIDOR IN            
KANSAS AND MISSOURI.                                                            
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS AND OVERALL TIMING FOR ANY               
RAIN.                                                                           
00Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK WITH THE ETA/NGM/RUC DOING             
BETTER AT 06Z. HOWEVER CLOSER EXAMINATION YIELDS THAT MESOSCALE                 
PROCESSES ARE DOMINATING AND THUS THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING WHAT             
IS CURRENTLY GOING ON AND EACH DIVERGES OVER TIME INTO DIFFERENT                
SCENARIOS. THUS WILL TOSS THE MODELS AND USE THE 06Z RUC (WHICH                 
SEEMS TO FINALLY KNOW WHATS GOING ON) AND GO FROM THERE. SO...HERE              
WE GO. 06Z RUC AGREES WELL WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON IN                   
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND MAIN FEATURES. THE RUC TAKES THE BEST            
QG FORCING AND LOWEST CONDESATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM THE                    
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 18Z. EXTRAPOLATION WOULD THEN             
TAKE THIS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THIS                            
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE ETA SHOWS THIS THE BEST. THE CURRENT LLJ              
SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME DURING THE DAY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND                  
WESTERN IOWA.                                                                   
USING THE ETA AS AN EXTENSION TO THE RUC THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO             
50+ KNOTS TONIGHT POINTING TO MCS DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF THE                  
MISSOURI RIVER. CURRENT FLOW ALOFT WOULD THEN PROPAGATE THE MCS                 
EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WESTERN                
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MCS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA             
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES.                          
THEREFORE WILL GO COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH            
SHRA/TSRA ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE            
FORECAST AREA AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.                
RAIN SHOULD THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.              
FWC/FAN NUMBERS LOOK TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT WITH TWEAKS              
AS NEEDED. TRAJECTORY METHOD WOULD YIELD HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY             
BUT WITH WAA ACROSS THE AREA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT LEAST IN LINE            
WITH FAN NUMBERS IF NOT A BIT WARMER.                                           
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
EXTENDED LOOKS OK ATTM AND WILL NOT CHANGE. HEAT INDICES TO BE OVER             
100 DEGREES AS HEAT WAVE ARRIVES WITH HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY.                   
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...SPI...AND STL.                               
.DVN...NONE.                                                                    
NC                                                                              
 ia                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
145 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
EVIDENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH SEEN IN 60 METER HEIGHT              
RISES AT 500MB LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...            
MAY BE A WEAK...ALMOST WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ERN                 
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...HARD TO FIND. VORT MAX THAT            
SPAWNED EVENING TSRA IS EAST OF THE FA...BUT MORE SHOWERS AND TSRA              
FORMING PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND SE MO. WVAPOR...LAPS AND RUC SHOW                
ANOTHER LOBE AT 700MB IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH LAPS                  
SHOWING INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SRN PORTIONS OF SE MO INTO SRN                    
SECTIONS OF WRN KY. CONTINUE TO FAVOR ETA...AVN SOLUTIONS AS THEIR              
PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN DECENT CONSIDERING DIFFICULT REGIME TO FCST.               
WILL MAINTAIN A CHC POP TODAY...AS THE ETA KEEPS K-INDICES RUNNING              
28 TO 32. HOWEVER...H8 THETA-E VALUES LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH              
UPPER SUPPORT BECOMING INCREASINGLY WEAK. HOWEVER IT BECOMES RATHER             
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES FCST TO REACH 2000- 3500 J/KG...AND 700MB RH                
REMAINS ABV 50 PERCENT. FOR TONIGHT...NIL UPPER SUPPORT OR LOW TROP             
FOCUS. AND WITH MEAN RH LOWERING...SHOULD BE DRY...WARM AND HUMID.              
CONCERN ARISES IN THE EXTENDED. EVEN THOUGH BIG OL' UPPER RIDGE                 
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...ETA AND AVN BOTH HINTING AT ROTATING HIGHER            
MEAN RH BACK AROUND TO THE WRN PERIPHREY AS THE CENTROID SHIFTS MORE            
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE FOURTH OF JULY. SINCE WE HAVE THE                
TERM "LITTLE" OR NO RAIN GOING...WILL LEAVE ALONE. MAY HAVE TO BE               
ADDED TO FCST AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. FMR NUMBERS LIKELY               
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE...ENCROACHING ON 100 DEGREES. WILL HAVE TOO MUCH             
ENERGY SPENT EVAPORATING "RAIN SOAKED AIR". LATEST NWP NOS ALREADY              
TRENDING DOWN...AND WILL HEDGE DOWN A FEW DEGREES BEYOND 24 HOURS.              
NONE THE LESS...UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND HEAT LIKELY UPCOMING.                
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
CN                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KRLX 020614  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                      
FOG/LOW CLDS BEING VERY SLO TO CLR OUT OF A FEW PLACES... LAKE SUPER            
SHORE ON FAR NWRN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...AND ERN PART OF THE                   
YOOP... SPCLY SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE CNTYS.                                       
ALTHO THE BULK OF THIS LOW STUFF SHD BURN OFF AM CONCERNED THAT                 
WINDS WL BCM ONSHORE THIS AFTN AND THUS WL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOME              
MSTR INTO THE NW SHORE AND LAKE MI SHORE. DON/T HAVE AS GOOD A FEEL             
FOR THE LUCE CNTY SHORELINE ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE BRIGHT CONDITION OF            
THE ALGER SHORELINE AM MORE OPTIMISTIC THERE.                                   
Q-VEC DIVERGENCE OUGHT TO HOLD MOST CLDS AT BAY THRU THE BULK OF THE            
AFTN...BUT BY LATE DAY THE HI CLDS CRNTLY OVR MN WL START TO EDGE IN            
AHD OF NEXT AREA OF Q-VEC CONVERGENCE.  IN ADTN... CU SCHEME FM BOTH            
LAST EVENING/S SHORT TERM MDLS AND 12Z RUC RUN SHOW FAIR WX CU                  
POTL.  WL TWEAK CLD WORDING ACCORDINGLY... WL GO W/ A MORE PLEASANT             
SOUNDING MIX OF CLDS AND SUN MOST AREAS.                                        
TEMPS QUITE PLEASANT THIS MORG...GNRLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ATTM..             
BUT XPCT THEY WILL CONT TO RISE STEADILY. WL LIKELY BUMP TEMPS UP A             
CAT OR SO IN INTERIOR SW SXNS AND MAKE AN ALLOWANCE FOR COLR TEMPS              
ALG THE GOG-ONT SHORE.                                                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DESROSIERS                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 021301  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1015 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                      
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MCS ONGOING TO              
THE SOUTH OF CWA...WITH WEAKER CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVR SW MN                
ALONG NRN OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. WARM FRONT EVIDENT ACRS NRN                 
NEB/WRN IA...AND WATER VAPOR/PROFILERS INDICATING A WEAK EMBEDDED               
S/W IN THE SAME AREA. 40KT LLJ CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO SW MN.                    
LATEST RUC INDICATES WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO SRN MN BY 00Z. IN                  
ADDITION...850 MB FLOW REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS                
MAINTAINS STG CONVERGENCE INTO WRN MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WITH                 
FAIRLY STG ELVATED INSTABILITY...AM EXPECTING AT LEAST SCT ACTIVITY             
TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN. WILL REWORK ZFP WORDING ACCORDINGLY.              
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 020852  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
910 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER                   
NORTHERN CWA WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT WEST OF CWA TOWARD DAWN.               
21Z RUC INDICATED THAT WEAK FORCING TO REMAIN OVER CWA UNTIL ABOUT              
06Z.  RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED TSRA OVER MAINLY NORTHERN                
CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH ELONGATED VORTICITY ALONG 25H JET AXIS FROM               
MONTANA/NODAK/CENTRAL MN.  CONVECTION STILL GOING OVER SOUTHEAST                
NODAK...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE POSSIBLE VORT CENTER              
MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA.  MAY HAVE TO HOLD ONTO SMALL POP IN THE               
NORTH CWA.  OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OTHER ACTIVITY TO TALK ABOUT.  21Z             
RUC/18Z ETA DID INITIATE CONVECTION SOUTHERN SODAK LATE TONIGHT.                
STRONG 85H THETA-E ADVECTION/WAA DEVELOPING WITH LOW LEVEL JET. DONT            
BELIEVE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO FAR WESTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z                    
THOUGH.  FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.                                         
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
 DWE                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 012043  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1050 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                      
CDFNT NR KPLB-KBGM VCNTY...BUT DWPNTS DO NOT DROP OFF SGFNTLY TIL               
BACK OVR ONTARIO. TSTMS MOVD OFF INTO SRN VT AND ADDITIONAL SHWRS               
STILL INVOF THE FNT WITH LARGEST BATCH OVR WRN CTSKLS. RUC ADVANCES             
BNDRY EWD ACRS VT THIS AFTN...BUT WKNS SHOWS UP ACRS PA AND THKNS               
PAT FAILS TO PROGRESS ACRS SERN NY. WL BACKPEDAL DOWN TO SCT SHWRS              
OR TSTMS ACRS NWRN DIST...HOWEVER CTSKLS E AND NEWD STILL WORTHY                
OF LKLY POPS. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON 12Z KALY SOUNDING AGAIN                     
APCHG 2 IN. EXISTING TEMP FCST NEEDS LTLCG.  MCKINLEY/GJM                       
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBUF 021432  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1003 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                      
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER CWA THIS MORNING AND A NICE SHOWER MOVING            
OVER US NOW. 12Z RAOBS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.               
SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT SHOWERS INLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY              
BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTN.                                   
RUC SHOWING A VORT MAX OFF SE COAST AND 12Z RUN ADVANCES THIS                   
FEATURE CLOSER YTHRU 00Z. ALL IN ALL GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND               
MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HOLD ON TO 30 POPS AS CURRENTLY                
FORECAST.                                                                       
CURRENT TEMPS LOOK GOOD AS WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNNY MIXED IN WITH               
CLOUDS. ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED.                                 
CWF...GOING FCST LOOKS IN LINE WITH CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.            
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
PJN                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 021350  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
950 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
NICE DAY IN STORE FOR MUCH OF ERN NC AS BERMUDA HIGH CONT TO                    
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD IN FROM THE E. SOME WIDELY SCT SHRA AND ISOLD              
AFTN TSTMS WILL EFFECT SOME AREAS HOWEVER ANY PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE           
BRIEF. SHRA OVR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND S OF CAPE LOOKOUT HAVE HELD               
ON THIS AM AND WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THE AFTN. RUC AND MESOETA BOTH             
PICK UP ON A WEAKNESS IN THE H5 RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING IN OVER THE             
REGION. MODELS ALSO PICK UP ON ELONGATED H5 VORT OVR CENTRAL NC AND             
ANOTHER VORT APPROACHING FROM THE SE. AS THE AREA GETS SQUEEZED BTWN            
THESE TWO FEATURES WE WILL CONT TO SEE SOME WDLY SCT SHRA PERSISTING            
OVER THE CSTL WATERS. SEA BREEZE WILL GET GOING EARLY SO SOME WDLY              
SCT SHRA ALSO PSBL INLAND THIS AFTN. MORN SNDG CONT TO SHOW SOME                
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO 30%               
FOR CSTL COUNTIES AS WDLY SCT SRA MAY MOVE ONSHORE LATER TDY.                   
CSTL...CURRENT CSTL FCST ON TRACK. HIGH PRES HAS BUILT IN A LITTLE              
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND WINDS S OF HAT HAVE DECREASED TO 15 KT.             
WITH TIGHTER PRES GRAD N OF HAT WILL KEEP 20 KT WINDS THERE. WINDS              
OVER THE SOUNDS AROUND 15 KT SO WILL TWEAK WIND THERE TO REFLECT                
CURRENT CONDITIONS.                                                             
.MHX...NONE                                                                     
ORROCK                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 021026  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
945 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
.CURRENT SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...                                                   
13Z SURFACE AND MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER CENTRAL           
NEBRASKA WITH 70 DEWPOINT AIR POOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BOUNDAY              
OVER KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY                
INDICATED MCS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA DECAYING RAPIDLY AS         
IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNFRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT IN THE FORM OF A STABLE                 
AIRMASS.                                                                        
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
12Z RUC SUGGESTS 5H WEAK SHEAR AXIS TO LINGER THROUGH AFTERNOON ALONG           
AND SOUTH OF A FERGUS FALLS TO DEVILS LAKE LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED POPS          
IN INHERITED ZONE PACKAGE STILL APPEAR WITHIN REASON. WILL INGEST               
INCOMING 12Z MODEL PACKAGE BEFORE PASSING FINAL JUDGEMENT.                      
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
BERG                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 020928  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
948 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
88-D SHOWS SHWRS TRYING TO PUSH TO THE COAST OF SC...HOWEVER CONT TO            
ERODE AT 20NM. SOME WEAK SHWRS ALONG THE CSTL SWAMPS OF GA. 12Z RAOB            
SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE..1.89 PW...WITH WK STEERING WINDS. XPCT SOME                
SHRA/TSTMS TO BRING HVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS             
UNSTABLE...CHS LI -6...WITH CAPES ARND 2K. WET BULBS ARE HIGH                   
WITH NOT MUCH WIND TO MIX DOWN AND HIGH EL AND NO ORGANIZED LIFT.               
DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR. MESO AND RUC DO NOT LOOK TOO                 
IMPRESSIVE FOR QPF AND 00Z MDLS INDICATING BEST LIFT WAS BETWEEN 06             
AND 12Z THIS AM. WL CONT WITH 40 POP UNDER PC SKIES WITH AFTERNOON              
CONV. WINDS LOOK GOOD ON CURRENT PACKAGE. TEMPS HOWEVER LOOK ON THE             
LOW SIDE FOR CHS. AT PRESENT WE ARE AT 80...WL BUMP TEMPS TO MIDDLE             
80S FOR INLAND AND REMAIN LOWS COAST.                                           
CWF...LATEST OBS HAVE DROPPED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALL MODELS               
ARE NOT REFLECTING ANYTHING TO SFC FROM UPR LVL CIRC OFF THE SC/GA              
COAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND VWP FROM AROUND THE RGN SHOW MOSTLY                
LIGHT S/SE FLO BUT BLO WHAT IS ADVERTISED...ESP ACRS THE SRN HALF OF            
THE WATERS. WILL MAKE SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH THE                  
LATEST INFOR.                                                                   
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 020815 COR  sc                                  

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
1225 PM MDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                      
SHORT TERM...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS ENTERING SOUTHWEST CO AND                    
SOUTHEAST UTAH SO WE HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR FORMATION OF               
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RUC WAS ONLY              
MODEL TO PICK UP ON LAST NIGHTS VORT CENTER THAT TRIGGERED                      
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA.  IT AGAIN IS SHOWING A                  
STRONG VORT CENTER CROSSING OUR AREA THIS EVENING.  NGM HAS NOW                 
JOINED THIS.  ETA SHOWS THIS VORT CENTER STAYING SOUTH OF US.                   
BELIEVE RUC-NGM SOLUTION SO WILL EXPECT SOME GOOD THUNDERSTORMS                 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. STRONG                        
INVERTED V ON 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS MOST OF THESE SHOULD BE DRY WITH               
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR WILD FIRE                   
ENHANCEMENT.                                                                    
LONGER TERM...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS.              
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CROSSING ALONG THE US-CANADIAN                   
BORDER. TOGETHER WITH HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO                 
AREA...THIS WILL ENHANCE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA.  SEVERAL WEAK            
VORT CENTERS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER US IN THIS FLOW.  THE QUESTION IS            
WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE. AVN...ETA AND              
NGM ALL INDICATE THAT DRYING WILL BE OCCURRING BY SAT ACROSS CENTRAL            
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...NGM SEEMS TO SHOVE MOST             
OF THE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL CO KEEPING OUR ENTIRE CWA                     
RELATIVELY DRY WHILE ETA AND AVN SEEM TO KEEP MORE MOISTURE IN THE              
FOUR CORNERS AREA.  SATELLITE PHOTOS SHOW LOTS OF MOISTURE IN AZ AND            
NM SO I TEND TO BELIEVE THIS WILL REMAIN IN OUR AREA. THEREFORE...              
WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ENTIRE AREA WITH BEST CHANCE            
IN FOUR CORNERS.                                                                
EXTENDED...AS TROUGH ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER MOVES TO THE                  
NORTHEAST...MRF BUILDS GULF OF MEXICO HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST TO BE               
LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING             
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  THIS TYPE OF FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST             
MOISTURE TO WEST OF US.  HOWEVER...I THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH                 
MOISTURE REMAINING SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING SHOWERS AROUND.                                                         
RWJJ                                                                            
.GJT...RED FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS OF WESTERN CO BELOW ABOUT 8000 FEET           
UNTIL 6PM THIS FRI EVENING.                                                     
RED FLAG WARNING FOR EASTERN UT FROM TAVAPUTS PLATEAU SOUTHWARD UNTIL           
9PM THIS FRI EVENING.                                                           
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE CWA FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 021003  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
255 PM CDT THU JUL 1 1999                                                       
FAST E-W FLOW OVR THE NRN TWO TIERS OF STATES EVIDENT ON THE 12Z                
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING.  MOST SIG HGT FALLS WERE OVER THE PAC NW WITH            
NOTHING BUT RISES OVR MID-AMERICA.  SLIGHTLY DIFFL FLOW OVER ERN SD             
NERN NE AND NW IA THIS MRNG ALONG WITH 35-40KT SLY H8 FLOW AIDED TSRA           
DVLPMNT THIS MRNG ACRS NW IA.  AT THE SFC WRM FRONT FM ERN NE/SRN IA            
THEN INTO CENTRAL IL.  TSRA THAT BLEW UP OVR NWRN IA ERLYR TDA HAS BEEN         
TRACKING SE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  FIRST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHTS FCST WILL BE       
THE CONVECTION OVR CNTRL IA AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST IT WILL MOVE.  88D PICS       
OUT OF DMX SHOW THE ERN MOST CELL DCRSNG AS IT APPRCHS DSM.  H8 PROFILER        
PLOTS AND MSAS MOISTURE DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS STORM IS            
EXITING AREA OF BEST SWLY INFLO AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE.  HOWEVER...CAPES       
OVER SERN IA HAVE REAHCED 4000 J/KG NR FNT OVR NRN MO AND 18Z DVN               
SOUNDING HAS A WK CAP JUST ABV H850.  LK AT THE 15Z RUC ALSO SHOWS H8           
WNDS VEERING THIS AFTN AND ERLY THIS EVE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST           
PROFILER TRENDS SO BLV THERE ARE ENUF FACTORS TO INCLUDE POPS AT LEAST          
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING.  LATER TONIGHT AND SAT              
MORNING WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH TAIL END OF MCS FCST TO DVLP OVRN SDKTA          
TONIGHT. USING ETA FCST POSN OF WRM FNT...THETA E ADVCTN AND MID-LVL            
INSTABILITIES SUGGEST THAT MCS POSSIBLE THIS AREA TONIGHT.  H850-H300           
THCKNS POINT TO A SE MVMNT WHICH WOULD PUT CWA UNDER THREAT AGAIN LATE          
TONIGHT AND ERLY SAT MRNING.  ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF CAP WILL LEAVE SOME          
DOUBT AS THE TO WRN EXTENT OF ANY PCPN.  AFT SAT MRNG THREAT OF PCPN WILL       
END AND HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.  ALL MODELS STILL BUILDING RDG OVR       
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TMPS WELL INTO THE 90S EXPECTED BY THE 4TH.       
STILL THINK FWC MAXES ARE UNDER DONE FOR SAT AND SUN ESPCLY N.  BLV STG         
SLY-SWLY FLOW WILL BE ENUF TO BUMP TEMPS UP CLOSER TO FAN NMBRS THROUGH         
THE PD.  FWC MINS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL STAY CLOSE.                    
EXTENDED...                                                                     
MRF SHOWING THAT STG WAVE MVNG ACRS SRN CANADA THIS WK END WILL START TO        
KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER ERN U.S. EFFECTIVELY PUTTING GREAT LAKES RGN          
IN NWRLY FLOW BY TUES WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON THE HEAT SOME.  IN THE             
TRANSISITION TO THE NWLY FLOW A COLD FNT IS FCST TO MV THRU THE UPPER           
MIDWEST MON NGT AND TUES HOWEVER WOULD PREFER TO HOLD OFF ON MNTN OF            
PCPN FOR SINCE ATM STILL LKS CAPPED.                                            
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
FERRY                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 020816  ia                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
228 PM MDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
VERY WARM TO HOT TMPS THIS WEEKEND.                                             
ATTM SATL WAS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WITH A SW               
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND INCREASNG AFTN TMPS. 88D WAS SHOWING            
A FEW TSRA S/SW OF THE CWA WHICH WAS MOVING ENE AND THE RUC SEEMED              
TO ANALYZE THIS WELL.                                                           
LOOKING AT DDC 12Z SOUNDING AND MODIFYING IT GAVE VERY IMPRESSIVE               
CAPES THIS AFTN OF OVR 5000J. 7/5H LAPSE RATES WERE VERY HIGH AND               
TMPS DIF BETWEEN 850/5H WERE BETTER THAN 40C ACROS THE CWA. WITH                
CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING JUST S OF THE CWA...TSRA SHUD EITHER               
MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THIS LATE AFTN. SOME MID LVL                
MOISTR AND COLD AIR ADVTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 5H/VORT LOBE                  
DRIFTING MAINLY ACROSS THE S CWA THIS EARLY EVENING. 2/3H MB CHARTS             
SHOWED A HI OVR E TX WHICH WAS WRAPPING GULF OF MEX MOISTURE AROUND             
AND INTO OUR CWA. AWIPS TIME SECTIONS SHOWED IMPRESSIVE OMEGAS ALOFT            
AND WITH HIGHS TMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S/DEW POINTS IN THE 60S             
SOME STORMS THAT DO BREAK THE CAP SHUD BECOME STRONG IF NOT SEVERE.             
MID LVL MOISTR DECREASES SATURDAY AND ETA SHOWS BOTH THE THCKNS AND             
5H/HGHTS INCREASING AS DO THE SFC WNDS AND EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM             
TO HOT DAY TOMORROW. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE CWA            
BUT WITH SFC TMPS NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND DEW PTS IN THE                  
60S A FEW TSRA AGAIN MAY DEVELOP.                                               
FOR THE FORTH OF JULY APPEARS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTN               
TMPS. 5H/HI RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE...ACROSS THE CWA AND WITH SW SFC             
WINDS A CONT VERY WARM TO HOT END OF THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE. SOME              
MID LVL MOISTR TRIES TO ADVT INTO THE CWA AND WITH THE VERY WARM TMPS           
AND ISOLD TSRA MAY DEVELOP.                                                     
THE EXTENDED HAS A SFC FRONT APPROACHING THE FA FROM THE NW MONDAY              
AND SHUD ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE APPROACHING            
FRONT AFTN TMPS SHUD BE SLIGHTLY COOLR THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE FRONT            
SLOWS AS IT EDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH               
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND IT. MUCH OF THE TSRA SHUD BE OVR THE S CWA               
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                                                     
TMPS SHUD BEGIN TO INC ACROSS THE CWA WED WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY            
WINDS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN OF THE MOISTURE A FEW TSRA             
AGAIN SHUD DEVELOP.                                                             
.GLD...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT) FOR                  
KSZ041-042.                                                                     
VPAPOL                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KICT 022026  ks                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
TWO FCST PRBLMS TO DEAL WITH THIS FCST PRD.  WHAT TO DO WITH CRNT               
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS CNTRL KY AND SCNDLY...CHCS MOR PRECIP SAT AFTN.            
SLO MOVG TSTMS VCNTY TN BRDR PRDCD VRY HVY RN WHILE OTHR SHWR/TSTMS             
SCT ACRS CNTRL KY AT 18Z.  RUC/SHRT TERM MDLS ALL INDCT VORT MAX                
MOVG ACRS TN AND WKNG DRNG AFTN/EVE.                                            
AS FOR SAT...REGARDLESS OF WHICH MDL YOU PREFER...APPRS A VORT MAX              
WIL MOV OUT OF CNTRL PLNS N OF KY WITH SOME INCRS IN MN RH BTWN                 
12-18Z SAT AFTN.  BOTH FRH/FRHT65 INDCT MSRBL PRECIP BY 18Z.                    
WITH MNTN OF PRECIP SAT AFTN WILL HOLD TEMPS BLO FWC GUID WHILE                 
HOLDG ONTO SOME DEGREE OF CLDS THRUOUT FCST PRD.  HI PRES SHOULD                
TAKE OVR BY SUN AND WILL ALLW TEMPS TO WRM FRHTR WHILE AGN KEEPG                
SOME MNTN OF CLDS.                                                              
.SDF...NONE.                                                                    
RNK                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KRLX 021840  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
245 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
...MOST OF CONVECTION N AND W OF GRR NEXT 3 DAYS...                             
AS CAN BE SEEN ON VIS/IR/RADAR COMPOSITE LOOPS BEST CONVECTION ON               
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WHERE BEST LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE             
CONVERGENCE IS.  RUC SHOWS 850 DWPTS RISE FROM BELOW 5C IN SW MN TO             
ABOVE 20C OVER ERN NE.  IT IS THIS RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE                   
HELPING TO DEVELOP THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.                   
OVERNIGHT... THIS AREA MOVES NNE INTO CNTL MN.  AT THAT TIME IT WILL            
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE POLAR JET TO BE AIDED BY THAT ALSO.                      
SO...WHILE THERE IS SOME THICKNESS DIFLUENCE OVER MI NEXT 48 HRS...             
BE ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR AND TO N OF WARM FRNT/WHERE LOW LEVEL JET              
INTERSECTS POLAR JET WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS ALL                   
STAYS... AS SEEN ON NCEP QPFPFD/94Q/98Q... NORTH AND WEST OF SW                 
LOWER MI.                                                                       
STILL MANY QUESTIONS WITH ALL OF THIS... AVN MID LEVEL TEMPS SEEM TO            
HIGH...IF WE HAD 700 MB TEMPS NEAR 16... THAT WOULD SURELY CAP                  
CONVECTION GIVEN NO BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH AND WITH STRONG SW                
WINDS LAKE BREEZE SHOULD NOT BE PROBLEM EITHER.  ETA SEEMS TO COOL              
AT 700 AS DOES NGM.  ALSO ETA SEEM TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH QPF FCST AS            
IT DOES NOT MATCH WELL WITH 18Z ANAL OVER IOWA.                                 
BOTTOM LINE... WILL FCST VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR               
DEBRIS CLDS TO COME AND GO.  WILL HAVE 30/40 PCT CHC OF TSTMS AFTER             
MIDNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO REACH AREA.  HIGHER POP              
NRN PART OF CWA.  WILL HAVE SIMILAR FORECAST SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT             
FOR SAME REASONING.  BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL STAY CLOSER TO UPPER               
JET AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTERSECTION. THAT WILL KEEP SW LWR OUT OF             
CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY ACTUALLY.                                             
BY SUNDAY...ENOUGH SW WIND FLOW AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM SSW TO GO            
FOR HAZY HOT AND HUMID AND NOT MENTION CONVECTION.  TEMPS NEAR MOS              
DUE TO CLDS TONIGHT AND SAT (WOULD HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS ON HIGH SAT              
OTHERWISE).                                                                     
EXTENED...ENSEMBLES FROM MRF/CANADIAN/UKMET/NOGAPS ALL AGREE A WEAK             
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SNEAK THROUGH AREA TUES. SO WILL HAVE                   
STRONGEST WORDING FOR CONVECTION IN THAT TIME FRAME.                            
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 021855  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1140 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                      
...UPDATE TO ADD CHC OF TSTMS TO SRN 1/2 OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON...               
LASTEST RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS... MODIFIED FOR HIGHER DWPTS... SINCE             
BOTH FCSTING SFC DWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MOST LOCATIONS IN CWA ARE           
IN THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. LIFTING THAT PARCEL WITH AFT TEMPS IN THE 80 TO          
85 RANGE GIVE CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG AND NO CAP.  ALSO EQUILIBIUM LEVEL           
WOULD BE NEAR 40000 FT.  SINCE RADAD AND SAT SHOW LAKE CONVERGENCE              
BOUNDRY JUST WEST OF US-131 AND SPOTTY SHOWERS ON RADAR NEAR I-94 AND           
US-131 AND SINCE LAPS SHOWS 1000-1600 J/KG ALREADY FROM MKG-LAN SOUTH...        
WILL ADD SCT SHWRS AND TSTSM TO ZN FCST FROM MKG TO LAN AND SOUTH BUT           
KEEP THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES DRY.                                               
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 021526  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
213 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF INITIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA LATE             
THIS AFTN AND EVENING...AND EXTENT TO WHICH THE CWA IS THREATENED               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
CURRENT SFC ANLYS INDICATES SFC LOW PRES JUST NW OF LBF WITH A WMFNT            
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN AND NE NEB AND THEN SEWD INTO SW IA.  MSTR             
RICH AIRMASS HAS WORKED NWD INTO CENTRAL PLNS TO THE S OF THE FNT               
WITH MID 70S DWPTS FM CNRL NE S TO THE TX GULF COAST.                           
TSRA WHICH HAD BEEN BACK BUILDING INTO 35KT 85H JET ACROSS PTNS OF              
NW IA AND EXTREME NE NEB THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN HAVE                
WERE CONTG TO PROPAGE SSE ACROSS SHELBY COUNTY AND MAY MOVE INTO NE             
POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY SHORTLY.  CONFIDI VECTORS CONT THE S MOVEMENT              
INTO EARLY EVE.  ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE RIDING ON EDGE OF WARMER MID            
LVL TEMPS WHERE LATEST RUC WAS PROGGING +13C AT 70H OVER EXTRM WRN              
IA.  RUC PROGS MID LVL TEMPS CONT TO WARM TO NEAR +15C TO +16C OVER             
THE CWA BY 03Z AS UPPER HGHTS CONT TO SFC CONVERGENCE ALG WMFNT MAY             
YET INITIATE CONVECTION OVER N CNTRL NEB LATER TAFTN...BUT CORE OF              
ANY MCS WHICH DVLPS FM THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOV ENE THROUGH SRN              
AND ERN SD AND INTO MN BY 12Z SAT.  EXTRM NE NEB MAY BE CLIPPED BY              
THIS ACTIVITY AND WILL KEEP SML POPS THIS AREA.  ETA SEEMS TO BREAK             
CAP AND GENERATE PCPN ASSD WITH AN ANOMOLOUS VORT MAX WHICH MOVES NE            
FM CO.  ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR STLT IMAGERY SHOWS SUPTROPICAL MOSTURE             
FETCH MOVG FM MEX INTO WRN HIGH PLNS THEN NE ACROSS NEB...I FEEL ETA            
IS EXTREMELY OVERDONE WITH THIS.  I AGREE WITH SPC THAT SOME ISOLD              
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE INITIATED OVER THE WRH HIGH PLNS                        
TAFTN...WARMING MID LVL TEMPS LIKELY TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY FM                   
WORKING EWD INTO THE CWA LATER TNGT.                                            
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PLNS TO ALLOW HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BE IN             
FULL FORCE SAT AND SUN.  ALTHOUGH AIRMASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE DURG            
THE AFTN WITH CAPES AROUND 4000J/KG...70H TEMPS RISE TO +15 TO +17              
AND NO FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...SO FEEL CAP WILL HOLD THROUGH SUN.  FWC           
GUID SEEMS TOO COOL GIVEN 85H TEMPS AND HGHTS AND WILL GO A FEW DEG             
HIGHER FOR MAXES.  HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO BE NEAR 104 TO 108 SAT AND            
SUN AFTN OVER THE CWA.  WITH THE MANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS                   
WEEKEND...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FIRST BIG HEAT WAVE OF THE             
SEASON.                                                                         
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
SKERRITT                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 021833  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
220 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
PATTERN ALOFT PROGGED TO CHANGE AS MID AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE                    
BRIDGES EWD OVER THE NEXT 48H. QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE                    
WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB FIELD HANG ON TO THIS AREA? ETA SUGGESTS                  
THERE WILL BE MORE OF A TROF-LIKE INFLUENCE INTO SAT BEFORE THE                 
MID-UPPER HIGH ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE AVN/NGM                 
SHOW THAT THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE S AS              
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE HERE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NRN             
PORTIONS OF THE WEAK UPPER TROF IS FAIRLY ACTIVE W/ CONVECTION.                 
SINCE THIS ENERGY IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE WWD AS RUC INDICATES WILL             
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS AND SAT FOR                   
MAINLY SC ZONES WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND                      
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. MAY MENTION ISOLATED OR                  
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR INLAND AREAS THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON TRENDS                
PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.                                                              
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN THE BALL-PARK FOR THE MOST PART. WILL GO A                
NUDGE WARMER THAN NGM FOR COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. NGM T1 NUMBERS A               
BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE ETA OUTPUT FOR SAT/SUN LIKELY DUE TO A               
SLIGHTLY MORE W OF S WIND COMPONENT. W/ BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING WWD                
WINDS MAY BE MORE REFLECTIVE OF ETA SO WILL UNDERCUT NGM BY A                   
COUPLE DEGREES FOR SAT AND SUN. SEA-BREEZE WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP               
THINGS COOLER ALONG THE COAST.                                                  
EXTENDED: CENTER OF UPPER HIGH TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST              
ON MON W/ THE DEEPER ELY FLOW SUPPRESSED WELL S OF HERE. DIURNAL                
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY MAY START BY MID WEEK AS AREA ONCE AGAIN BECOMES             
SITUATED BETWEEN UPPER HIGH TO THE E AND W...OTHERWISE NO CHANCE                
FOR SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED. IN ADDITION...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE             
WARMEST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE UPPER HIGH COMPLETELY                 
SHIFTS OFFSHORE.                                                                
CWF: CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY STIRRED THE WIND UP AT FRYING PAN.                 
FORECAST THROUGH ALL PERIODS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR W/ BERMUDA                
HIGH BUILDING WWD. SELY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND SPEEDS MAY              
BE ENHANCED BY WIDELY SCT STORMS PASSING BY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS             
NOT EXPECTED.                                                                   
PRELIMINARY CCF:                                                                
ILM BB 073/088 071/091 071 210                                                  
FLO BB 071/091 070/095 070 110                                                  
MYR BB 073/084 073/087 072 220                                                  
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
PFAFF                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 021726  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
132 PM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS PLAINS WELL CAPPED ATTM WITH 15Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS           
SHOWING 5 DEGREE C CAP. FARTHER S AND W SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD WITH WAVE S           
OF BIG BEND RGN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR INDICATES MID               
LEVEL THETA RIDGE AXIS FAR W IS MOVING NWD WITH CIRCULATION ASSOCD              
WITH UPPER ANTICYCLONE. AS A RESULT TEND TO FAVOR A DRY FCST ACROSS             
AREA DESPITE RECENT TREND FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON                     
CONVECTION. BUT WILL WAIT TO GET LAST MINUTE TRENDS BEFORE DECIDING             
ON POPS. NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO INTENSIFY BY MIDNIGHT AS                    
TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT OCCURS WITH WRN HIGH PLAINS LOW AND WILL GO              
WITH LOW CLOUDS PECOS/TERRELL. PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING N OF PECOS RIVER           
TO COVER A FEW LOW CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATTERN CHANGE STILL                  
ADVERTISED WITH UPPER HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN USA SO COOLING INTO            
M90S SEEMS REASONABLE OVER WEEKEND. ATTM WILL OPT TO GO WITH DRY FCST           
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL THETA-RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PROXIMITY             
OF MTNS. ELY WAVES WILL BE A PLAYER HOWEVER AND MAY HAVE ENUF FOCUSED           
LIFT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN PLAINS. UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES            
ITSELF 4 CORNERS RGN BY MONDAY BUT MAY BE TOO FAR AWAY TO RESULT IN             
DRAMATIC HEAT OF LATE. WILL OPT TO INSERT ISOLD POPS EXTENDED FOR               
PLAINS PER ELY WAVES AND MID LEVEL COOLING.                                     
PRELIM  NUMBERS                                                                 
MAF  72/96/71/95  ----                                                          
CNM  73/99/71/97  1111                                                          
MRF  61/90/59/89  1111                                                          
P07  73/93/73/92  ----                                                          
GPM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSJT 021849  tx                                      

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
910 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 1999                                                       
THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A PRONOUNCED CHANGE FOR BRO OVER LAST                
NIGHT.  PWAT HAS SPRUNG UPWARD TO OVER 2 INCHES..THE LI IS UP TO -7             
AND CAPE IS AROUND 4000 J/KG.  THE CAP IS MINIMAL.  PART OF THE CWFA            
IS ALSO IN THE NCEP GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR TODAY.  ALL THIS              
DUE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE TO THE SOUTH.  MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS                
MORNING IS TO MONITOR APPROACHING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE                      
SOUTHEAST...SOME OF WHICH HAS ALREADY ENTERED THE OUTER COASTAL                 
WATERS.  TCU ARE POPPING UP VICINITY OF THE SATION THIS MORNING AS              
WELL.  HARD TO GET A GOOD LOOK AT THIS NEAR STUFF ON THE 88D DUE TO             
THE CONE OF SILENCE.  WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON DEVELOPING               
CONDITIONS.  PACKAGE LOOKS WORKABLE FOR NOW...WILL DECIDE ON ANY                
MINOR CHANGES SHORTLY.  EXTENT OF HEATING TODAY WILL REALLY                     
DETERMINE AMOUNT AND AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIP.  LATEST RUC SHOWS BRUNT            
OF WAVE STILL TO THE SOUTH BUT SOME PVA OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY.              
CWF...THE SCA FOR TODAY WAS BASED ON STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING              
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL LOCAL ENHANCEMENT.  WITH THE UPPER WAVE                   
APPROACHING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAKENED.  ANY                   
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL MODIFY HEATING DIFFERENTIAL             
OVER THE CWFA AS WELL.  WITH CURRENT WEAKENED INVERSION...THE WIND              
IS ALREADY WEAKER ABOVE THE DECK AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN                    
SURFACE...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT MIXING TO INCREASE IT AS IN PAST DAYS.            
THE CURRENT FNMOC WAVE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY SEAS ABOVE 6 FEET...WHICH        
IS ABOUT WHAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH WITH THE WIND LOWER LAST             
NIGHT THERE MAY BE A FURTHER DROP TODAY.  WITH CURRENT WIND LOWER               
AND RUC OR AVN GUIDANCE NOT PICKING IT UP TODAY...WILL HAVE TO DROP SCA         
FOR NOW.                                                                        
SYN/MESO...54/HMT...WATKINS                                                     
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KFWD 021041 AMD  tx