AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
943 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT NOW INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA WILL MOVE                     
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY LATE MORNING. RAIN WILL END FROM             
THE NORTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE                     
REACHED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...WILL BLEND THE LATEST NGM MOS WITH THE AFTERNOON RUC              
AND TWEAK TEMPS DOWN...AS MUCH AS 3 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN ZONES                  
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY                   
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL ALSO ZERO OUT POPS FOR ALL EXCEPT S CEN LA                
WHERE 50 PERCENT WILL REMAIN WITH EARLY WORDING. MAY NEED TO                    
CONSIDER A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES OF                  
JEFFERSON AND CAMERON AS SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE CLOSE TO              
20 MPH.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SCA WILL CONTINUE WITH TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND COLD              
AIR ADVECTION OVER WARM WATERS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IMPROVING CIGS TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                      
JS-PUBLIC                                                                       
JT-MARINE/AVIATION                                                              
...previous...                                                                  
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTH CNTRL LA DOWN THROUGH THE SAN             
ANTONIO AREA. TEMP/DEW PT GRADIENT ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS                
FRONT. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS IN SOUTHERN TX AND MVG EAST            
ALONG THE FRONT. UPR TROUGH IS LOCATED IN NW IA DOWN THROUGH CNTRL KS           
AND INTO WESTERN TX.                                                            
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AND SHOULD           
REACH THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. AS FRONT APPROACHES OUR CWA                    
EXPECTING HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IN SE TX...SW AND S CNTRL LA             
WHERE THE RR QUAD OF THE U/L JET MAX WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL                
SUPPORT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FCST SOUNDINGS IN THE COASTAL                   
COUNTIES AND PARISHES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AROUND DAYBREAK AND                    
AFTERWARDS AS FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH BY THAT TIME. HPC SHOWS             
HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINING OFFSHORE AND BOTH THE GFS AND ETA AGREE             
WITH THIS SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH IN OUR AREA DUE TO EARLY           
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THIS WILL HELP IN KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT TSRA              
FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREAS THAT SEE DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE FRONTAL              
PASSAGE WILL HAVE MORE A SVR TSRA THREAT...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE WELL            
EAST OF OUR CWA.                                                                
AS FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SE OF THE AREA ALL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF               
OUR SE ZONES BY THE EVNG HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PRETTY COOL               
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.                
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS             
BACK TO THE AREA BY SATURDAY WILL WARM THINGS UP TO AROUND NORMAL               
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY.                                         
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MID-WEEK WITH S/W'S MVG AROUND THE BASE            
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED IN THE CNTRL US BY TUES.                          
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND             
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS FRONT MVS                  
FURTHER SE OF THE AREA.                                                         
.AVIATION...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS ARE LIKELY BEFORE              
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND                   
VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE               
POSSIBLE. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO                
END WITH CEILINGS BEGINNING TO LIFT. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS             
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN                   
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.                                                          
RUA                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                    
BPT 70  51  79  60  /   0  00  00  00                                           
LCH 69  50  78  58  /   0  00  00  00                                           
LFT 69  49  76  58  /  50  10  00  00                                           
AEX 66  45  75  54  /   0  00  00  00                                           
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...SCA...GMZ450-455-470-475.                                                  
TX...SCA...GMZ450-470.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCNATT/JS                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
915 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH THE             
MAIN AREA OF RAIN EAST OF CAPE COD. LATEST SCANS SHOW AN AREA OF                
RAIN BLOSSOMING IN THE GULF OF MAINE HEADING EAST. 21Z RUC SHOWS .25            
QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...AND THE 18Z GFS IS ALSO MORE GENEROUS ON              
QPF. BASED ON THIS AND RADAR WILL BUMP UP POPS A TAD TO CATEGORICAL             
ALONG THE MID COAST...AND LIKELY ELSEWHERE.                                     
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR FORECAST LOWS...WHICH IS                  
EXPECTED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISC...                                                               
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                          
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON IS                       
PROGRESSING NORTH ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. THE PRECIPITATION IS PUSHING               
INTO SOME VERY DRY AIR OVER WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AS SHOWN            
ON THE 12Z GYX UPPER AIR SOUNDING. STILL EXPECT THE RAIN TO                     
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE                      
RELATIVELY LIGHT.  12Z MODELS SHOWED BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE BEST             
LIFT OVERNIGHT REMAINING OFFSHORE.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE                    
CONVECTION OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN               
THIS SITUATION, EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST WITH CHANCE             
POPS OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF                      
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND TAPERS OFF FRIDAY MORNING.              
CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A                    
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER MOS POPS LOOK TOO            
HIGH FOR FRIDAY. MET/MAV MOS MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN                    
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND USED A COMPOSITE           
OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERATURES.                         
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                   
DEEP UPPER TROF TILTING NEGATIVE AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE                       
EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING DEVELOPS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW               
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PULLS THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH                 
OVERNIGHT. NEW MODEL RUNS TAKING THIS LOW UP THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY             
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY               
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE            
OFFSHORE WATERS BUT SOME QUESTION AT THIS TIME JUST HOW MUCH                    
WIND WILL MIX DOWN. DRY SLOT QUICKLY CUT PRECIP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
SURFACE LOW TURNS NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER               
UPPER CLOSED CIRCULATION WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME MORNING                
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY...BUT THINK MUCH OF THE DAY WILL            
BE DRY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY AS COLDER AIR POORS IN FROM THE           
WEST.                                                                           
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WELL WEST OF THE FA              
WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY GENERALLY CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST                    
ZONES.                                                                          
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT                 
LIKE SATURDAY...MAINLY SHOWER FREE.                                             
NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY HEADS EAST IN FAST WESTERLY FLOW AND CURRENTLY              
PROJECTED TO REACH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DEPARTING THE            
AREA ON TUESDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...COASTAL STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL MOVE IN THIS                  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE EAST. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL                   
DETERIORATE TO IFR. IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH NORTHEAST                
FLOW SUGGESTS WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN MODELS. WINDS ALREADY              
15 TO 20 KTS...WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT. BUMP UP WINDS A                        
TAD...AND MENTION GUSTS TO 25 KTS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WHEELER                                                            
LONG TERM...EJS                                                                 
UPDATE...APFFEL                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO REMOVE NRN SCHOOLCRAFT FM HIGH          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                     WIND WATCH            
415 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE                  
PATTERN DVLPG ACRS NAMERICA WITH DEEPENING TROF IN THE CNTRL BTWN               
RDGS ON THE W AND E COASTS. CWA IN WEAK CYC NE FLOW BTWN SFC-H85 RDG            
OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO AND LO NOT FAR FM DTX (MSLP 1000MB). BROAD AREA            
OF PRES FALLS NOTED ARND THIS LO. ABUNDANT LO CLD PREVAILS ACRS THE             
FA IN FLOW OFF LK SUP UNDER SHARP INVRN H9-85 AS SHOWN ON 12Z                   
GRB/APX SDNGS. ALTHOUGH HIER RH APRNT ABV H7 AT BOTH SITES... SNDGS             
SHOW VERY DRY AIR BTWN INVRN BASE AND HIER MID/UPR RH (DWPT                     
DEPRESSIONS UP TO 20C WITHIN THIS LYR). LO CLD EXTENDS BACK INTO                
MN...WHERE 12Z INL SDNG SHOWS DRY AIR EVEN BLO INVRN AT H9. BUT THE             
12Z DTX SDNG CLOSER TO THE LOWER GRT LKS LO INDICATES DEEP MSTR THRU            
THE ENTIRE TROP. OTRW...A CUTOFF LO MOVING THRU BASE OF UPR TROF IN             
THE SNCTRL MS VALLEY (00Z-12Z HGT FALLS UP TO 200M AT MKC). ANOTHER             
POTENT SHRTWV ON WV IMAGERY NOTED DIGGING THRU SCNTRL CAN (WITH 12HR            
H3 HGT FALLS UP TO 220M AT YQD) ACCOMPANIED BY 996MB SFC LO JUST N              
OF LK WINNIPEG. A NW H3/H5 JET MAX WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 150KT/90KT            
DIGGING WITH THIS SHRTWV INTO THE CNTRL TROF.                                   
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE IMPACT OF STRENGTHENING SFC             
LO NR DTX THAT WL ACCOMPANY PHASING OF SHRTWVS IN DEEPENING CNTRL               
NAMERICA TROF. PSBL IMPACTS INCLUDE HI WINDS/LK ENHANCED RASN/HI                
WAVES ACRS LK SUP. WL BE RELYING PRIMARILY ON THE GFS FOR THIS EVENT            
AS THIS MODEL SHOWS A MORE RPDLY DEEPENING CYC THAT WOULD BE FAVORED            
GIVEN THE UPR PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR/LK AGGREGATE WRMG AS WELL AS             
THE MODEL TREND FOR A DEEPER/FARTHER W LO PRES TRACK.                           
FOR TNGT...MODELS SHOW CNDN SHRTWV DIGGING FURTHER INTO CNTRL UPR               
TROF...WHICH THEN TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT IN RESPONSE TO THE              
PHASING UPR SYS. IN RESPONSE...MSLP FALLS ALSO FCST OVER THE LOWER              
GRT LKS. AS UPR WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THESE DYAMICS...EXPECT THE            
DEEPER MSTR OVER DTX TO WRAP BACK INTO THE ERN CWA. HOWEVER...DUE TO            
THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR...THE RATHER LGT WINDS FCST IN THE CRITICALLY            
DRY LYR (WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT)...AND LACK OF DPVA/SGNFT QVECTOR                 
CNVGC...THINK PCPN WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE. WL UPGRADE POPS OVER THE E            
TO CATEGORICAL BUT TAPER TO 30-40 PCT OVER THE W AND DELAY ONSET OF             
PCPN OVER THE W IN LINE WITH MODEL QPF/EXPECTED DYNAMICS AND IMPACT             
OF DRY AIR. LOWER TROP TOO WARM/SFC DWPTS (35 TO 40) TOO HI TO WORRY            
ABOUT SN...JUST RA.                                                             
UPR TROF CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED ON FRI...AND                
BOTH ETA/GFS SHOW SFC LO DEEPENING TO ARND 985MB OVER LK HURON BY               
00Z SAT. GFS FCSTS SHARPENING CYC FLOW AND INCRSG UPR DVGC/H85-5                
QVECTOR CNVGC/H7 OMEGA OVER THE E HALF OF FA BY 00Z SAT...WITH AXIS             
OF SHARPENING H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL FA. SO EXPECT RA               
INTENSITY TO PICK UP THEN ACRS THE E LATE IN THE DAY. BUT WL ALSO GO            
CATEGORICAL FOR POPS OVER THE W AS WELL...BUT FOR LIGHTER QPF.                  
DEEPENING PROCESS PROGGED TO CONT FRI NGT AS UPR LO CLOSES OFF ACRS             
THE CNTRL GRT LKS...WITH PREFERRED GFS SHOWING SFC LO REACHING JUST             
E OF ANJ BY 12Z SAT AND INTENSIFYING TO 978 MB. GFS INDICATES                   
INTENSE H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS/H7 OMEGA               
OVER THE E HALF OF CWA JUST ON CYC SIDE OF H5 LO TRACK...BUT                    
CATEGORICAL POPS IN ORDER EVERYWHERE WITH DEEP CYC FLOW/MSTR. GFS               
SHOWS H85 WINDS INCRSG TO 45 KTS OVER SCNTRL LK SUP BY 12Z SAT NR               
BASE OF INVRN. SINCE GFS SHOWS H100-85 THKNS SINKING BLO 1300M BY               
12Z SAT OVER THE W...WL MENTION A MIX WITH SN W OF A LINE FM THE                
KEWEENAW TO IMT.                                                                
ON SAT-SAT NGT...GFS SHOWS SFC LO MARCHING SLOWLY N TO JAMES BAY BY             
00Z SUN AND INTO SRN HUDSON BAY BY 12Z SUN. AS THE SFC LO DRIFTS                
NWD...THE SHARP H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC/H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS/H7             
UVV DIMINISHES BY LATER SAT. ALTHOUGH HEAVIER PCPN WL GRDLY DIMINISH            
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THESE DYNAMICS...CONTD SHARP CYC FLOW/DEEP                
MSTR AND ARRIVAL OF A BIT COLDER AIR AT H85 WL CONT WDSPRD...BUT                
LIGHTER SHRASN. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY SAT NGT ESPECIALLY            
OVER THE SCNTRL ZNS AS DEEPER MSTR PROGGED TO DEPART WITH LINGERING             
DOWNSLOPING STRG NW FLOW. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO -5              
TO -6C (VS 8-10C LK TEMP) BY LATE SAT NGT...THINK LK EFFECT/LK                  
ENHANCED SN WL BE MINIMIZED BY STRG WINDS.                                      
ETA/GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW INTENSE INSTABILITY OVER THE LK SAT EVNG BLO            
INVRN ARND H85 WITH NW WINDS 40-50 KTS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR OVER ERN            
LK SUP. 06Z ETA HAD SHOWN 60-65KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR.                   
ALTHOUGH EXPLICIT GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS OF A THREAT FOR STRG WINDS            
THAN THE 06Z ETA...PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH PHASING STRG SHRTWVS                
RESULTING IN A NGETATIVELY-TILTED CUTOFF LO DURING THE FALL OVER THE            
LKS WHEN LK AGGREGATE WRMG WELL FURTHER INTENSIFY SFC CYC FURTHER               
SUGS THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH ATTM ON SAT-SAT EVNG. ONE MINUS             
FOR HI WINDS WOULD BE A LACK OF STRG CAD AND STRG ISALLOBARIC                   
WIND...AND WATCH MAY END UP AS AN ADVY IF EXPLICIT MODEL GUIDANCE               
WORKS OUT. SO WL RESTRICT WATCH TO THOSE MORE EXPOSED AREAS OVER THE            
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E OF MQT NR THE DESTABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK            
SUP. ALSO PLAN TO ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE EXPOSED                   
LOCATIONS  AS WAVE HGTS 20 TO 25 FT PSBL IN NRSHORE AREAS IN                    
PERSISTENT STRG NW FLOW AND LK LEVELS CLOSER TO LONG TERM AVG THAN              
IN RECENT YEARS.                                                                
IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE...MODELS SHOW DEEP VORTEX GRDLY                
EXITING TO THE NE ON SUN. BUT GIVEN MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS LO TO BE              
DEEPER AND SLOWER TO DEPART AS WELL AS UPSTREAM H85 THERMAL TROF...             
WL HANG ON TO CYC FLOW -SHRASN THRU THE MRNG BEFORE SHRTWV RDGING               
GRDLY ENDS THIS PCPN AND RESULTS IN SOME CLRG. THEN SOME DIFFERENCES            
ON THE TRACK OF NEXT SHRTWV THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IMPACTING             
THE GRT LKS ON MON. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR THIS SYS TO MOVE                 
FARTHER S BASED ON SLOWER DEPARTURE OF WEEKEND STORM...AND LATEST               
NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE SHOWS SFC LO CENTER TRACKING THRU THE LWR GRT              
LKS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A VARIATION BTWN 10 PCT AND 59             
PCT POP IN THE 00Z-12Z MON TIME FRAME AT MQT. GIVEN MODEL TREND AND             
SLOWER DEPARTURE OF WEEKEND STORM THAT WOULD FORCE A SLOWER/FARTHER             
S TRACK...HAVE OPTED TO DELAY ONSET OF PCPN UNTIL SUN NGT AND SHIFT             
HIER POPS (UP TO 40 PCT) TO THE SRN ZNS WITH MARGINAL 30 POPS                   
FARTHER N. H85 TEMPS BTWN 0 AND -5C WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION OF               
RA/SN MIX INLAND FM LK MI. THEN DRIER AND WARMER WX IN STORE LATER              
ON MON INTO WED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING TROFFING IN THE W...               
RISING HGTS OVER THE E...AND SFC HI PRES DOMINATING THE GRT LKS. WL             
CONT CHC -SHRA LATER ON WED INTO THU WITH APRCH OF LO PRES TROF TO              
THE E OF WRN TROFFING.                                                          
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WATCH SAT/SAT EVNG                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1010 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST PROGRESSING THROUGH                
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALIGNED             
WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN HURON/SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...WITH               
PRECIP EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB. SURFACE                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH HANGING BACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH             
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG IT. EARLY VIS SATELLITE/METARS SHOW            
LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHERE DEEPER               
MOISTURE HAS ALREADY STRIPPED AWAY. WITH MAINLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE              
WITHOUT AN OVERHEAD CLOUD DECK...WOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO BE TOO                  
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING. WILL UPDATE TO MENTION FOG IN THE SOUTH                
WHERE PRECIP HAS ENDED. ALSO DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED WITH ABUNDANT                
MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. DTX RADAR SHOWS                 
PATCHY WEAK ECHOES...BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS AT LEAST                
DURING THE MORNING.                                                             
WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS IT...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH SOME HEATING...1000-850MB LAPSE RATES                   
INCREASE TO NEAR 9C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. 09Z RUC IS A             
BIT DRIER THAN THE 06Z ETA AS FAR AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. NO REAL                
LIFT TO SPEAK OF EITHER /GENERAL 850-500MB QVECTOR DIVERGENCE                   
BETWEEN THE UPPER WAVES/. HOWEVER WILL STILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE GOING            
FOR ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP. AS FOR SKY                
COVER...CLOUDS WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. COULD SEE BETTER               
SUN ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WOULD EXPECT CU TO FILL IN WITH EVEN WEAK            
HEATING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION...220 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2004                                   
STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. TOO                 
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...BUT IT CERTAINLY LOOKS             
LIKE WE COULD SEE AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                   
FOR TODAY...                                                                    
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION (700 MB LOW) TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST                   
MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY AIR AND LACK OF FORCING HAS                    
ALLOWED THE TRI-CITIES REGION TO ESCAPE SEEING MEASURABLE RAINFALL.             
HOWEVER...SOLID BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS LOCATED UNDERNEATH AND EAST OF             
THE CIRCULATION...WHERE THE GOOD 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS OCCURRING.            
THIS CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY HEAD OFF TO THE NORTHEAST              
THIS MORNING. WOULD EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION TODAY...AS               
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. DEEP LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE AND LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH STILL MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE            
A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WILL             
THUS CARRY 30 POPS (OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS              
THE THUMB REGION). WITH SOLID LOW OVERCAST...NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS             
CLIMBING MORE THAN 10 DEGREES. WILL CARRY MAXES AROUND 60 DEGREES.              
NOW TO THE BIG STORY...                                                         
INTENSE STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...JUST A               
LOT FARTHER WEST THEN INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE REASON FOR THIS                  
FARTHER WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER                
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SYSTEM IS CHUCKING ALONG A LOT                      
FASTER...AND WILL PHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL                     
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY                             
MORNING...ALLOWING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO GO NEGATIVE. WITH THE                 
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PIVOTING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN            
ON FRIDAY...THAT SHOULD ASSURE US OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS MOISTURE             
IS WRAPPED BACK INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.                    
CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE LOW BY THE MODELS (UKMET/ETA/GFS) IS FROM                
CENTRAL OHIO FRIDAY MORNING (992 MB) THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE               
ERIE DURING FRIDAY (987 MB) TO GEORGIAN BAY FRIDAY EVENING (980 MB)             
AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO/QUEBEC ON SATURDAY (970 MB). THIS IS NEAR              
BOMB CRITERIA...24 MB PRESSURE FALL IN 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT             
IN VERY STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.                  
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON SATURDAY WILL BE                   
CONDUCIVE TO MIXING THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE            
ONE SAVING GRACE LOOKS TO BE THE TIMING OF THE 6 HOUR PRESSURE                  
COUPLET (12 MB)...WHICH IS OVER THE REGION 6Z SATURDAY. WITH THIS               
OCCURRING DURING THE NIGHT-HOURS...WE WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE                   
STABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND THUS LESS TURBULENT MIXING.                        
NONE-THE-LESS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND COLD FRONT STILL MAY BE                
ENOUGH TO GIVE US STRONG WINDS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT. ON                     
SATURDAY...850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO BE 45 TO 50 KNOTS. WITH CONTINUED            
COLD ADVECTION...DAYTIME HEATING...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS CLOSE TO               
6000 FEET...WE SHOULD AT LEAST MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO MIX SOME OF THOSE             
WINDS DOWN. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (LEADING TO LOW LEVEL CAPES             
OF 75 TO 100 J/KG)...COUPLED WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE                       
MICHIGAN...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON              
SATURDAY...AS 1000 TO 500 MB RH REMAINS HIGH (GREATER THAN 80                   
PERCENT).                                                                       
WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS RISE AND                   
SUBSIDENCE REALLY BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT                    
ACTIVITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUING DUE TO THE              
GOOD INSTABILITY. DESPITE STRONG 850 MB WINDS CAUSING LOW RESIDENT              
TIME OF AIR PARCELS OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE             
POP IN FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE SLOW TO                
FALL. SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS TO MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY. WILL               
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A            
LEFTOVER SHOWER IN THE MORNING.                                                 
NOT ANTICIPATING MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS IN THE                 
GRIDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SF                                                                              
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
337 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2004                                                      
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
...AND AS IT MOVES EAST...CFWA SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST            
TO EAST THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE                
WIND WILL DICTATE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST            
MINIMUMS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH. WILL ROTATE             
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY               
WHICH WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO REGION BY AFTERNOON.              
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE                   
DAY...AND WITH MODEST AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/DOWNSLOPE              
COMPONENT EXPECTED...FEEL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL          
NORMALS TOMORROW DUE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  COLDER AIRMASS WILL             
FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...GIVING                
MOST LOCATIONS THEIR COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON.  MAY SEEM              
SOME FROST...BUT WILL WAIT A LITTLE BEFORE INTRODUCING IT INTO                  
THE FORECAST.                                                                   
SF                                                                              
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A COMPLEX               
FALL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE MIDWEST. SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WITH                
WITH A DEEP POLAR LOW EXITING THE MIDWEST AND LIFTING THROUGH THE               
EASTERN CONUS. COOL TEMPS (50S) WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AS THE                    
REMNANTS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION LINGER ABOUT KANSAS AND MISSOURI.                
FOR SUNDAY ALL THE MID RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT AS THE LOW             
LIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES THE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL               
SHIFT TO MORE OF A FAST ZONAL FLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL               
ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK RIDGING THAT WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS BACK UP                   
(60S)...BUT WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST BY INTRODUCING DIFFICULT TO            
TIME FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES INTO THE FLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE             
PRIME EXAMPLE OF THIS WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH             
IN THE SOUTHERN FLOW LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WAVE IS THE                   
REMAINS OF A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE              
GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SOUTHERN WAVE WHILE THE                  
EXTENDED ETA (DGEX) PLACES MORE EMPHASIS ON A WAVE ON IN THE                    
NORTHERN STREAM. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT OUR GOING SLIGHT CHANCE (20%)              
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE MODERATING TEMPS ON MONDAY TO                
REFLECT THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION. WARM              
AIR ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A DIGGING TROUGH            
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...HELPING TEMPS TO PUSH BACK TOWARDS               
NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE GFS AND DGEX MODELS QUICKLY               
SHOOT A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE DIGGING TROUGH...WHICH IS PROGGED TO             
EXPAND ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET/AND CANADIAN MODELS             
ARE SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FACT IS THAT THE FEATURE IS THERE             
LENDS CREDENCE TO ITS EXISTENCE...AND POINTS TO A TIMING ISSUE. SO              
WHILE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT DUE TO THE TIMING...I HAVE ADDED POPS FOR            
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN AHEAD OF              
THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY...AND KEPT THE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR                
WRAP AROUND PRECIP.                                                             
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
305 AM                                                                          
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND RAIN                
CHANCES TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO                
DEEPEN/DIG SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY               
SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX FORMING OVER NORTHWEST IA AND BEGINNING TO                
ROTATE SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS             
WESTERN IA AND NORTHWEST MO THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE              
ON RADAR TRENDS AS CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NORTHWEST            
MO TODAY. COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO WEST CENTRAL AND            
CENTRAL MO INDICATE INCREASING LIFT THESE AREAS. RADAR ALSO SHOWS               
DEVELOPING ECHOES UNDERNEATH THIS ENHANCEMENT. 06Z ETA AND RUC QPF              
SUGGESTS THESE ECHOES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY SO HAVE            
ADJUSTED MORNING POPS FOR THESE AREAS ACCORDINGLY. CLEARING TREND               
WILL BE TIED TO PASSAGE OF 500MB TROUGH. SO NORTHWEST MO SHOULD SEE             
AFTERNOON SUN AND PART OF AFTERNOON FOR WEST CENTRAL MO. GOOD COLD              
AIR ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN                 
CHECK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS FOR TODAY.                           
NEXT UPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN IS SPREADING               
HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO            
MOVE INTO CWA TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK IN                 
ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL CUT SHORT THE COLD AIR                     
ADVECTION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION LATE              
TONIGHT. WARMING TOMORROW WILL BE MUTED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE HIGH              
CLOUDINESS AND GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG                    
NORTHWEST WINDS.                                                                
SATURDAY PRESENTS A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE CHALLENGE AS 850 MB                    
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS FRIDAY BUT GOOD MID LEVEL WARM AIR               
ADVECTION EXPECTED TO GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF MID CLOUDS. THIS WILL             
NEGATIVELY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS                
THIS IN HAND AND LOOKS REASONABLE.                                              
SOME NOTABLE CHANGES SHOWING UP IN THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS              
AS THEY ARE WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN ACTIVE               
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM. SINCE TIMING WILL BE AN            
ISSUE AND LOCATION OF RAIN STILL IN QUESTION HAVE OPTED TO INSERT               
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT SPANNING INTO MONDAY                
NIGHT. IF MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY THEN IT WILL BE WORTH BUMPING            
UP RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.                                             
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
830 PM...                                                                       
ALREADY HAVE DONE SOME MINOR TWEAKING TO THE FORECAST TO SCALE BACK             
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY DO             
A LITTLE MORE AFTER HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO PERUSE SOME OF THE 00Z                 
MODEL RUNS. WATCHING TRENDS ACROSS IOWA FOR LOW CLOUD DECK AND                  
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHICH SEEM TO BE POINTING MORE TOWARD                 
EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THIS LINES UP BETTER WITH 18Z ETA            
LIFT ON THE 800 MB LEVEL. ALREADY HAVE ADJUSTED TAFS TO INCORPORATE             
THIS THINKING.                                                                  
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
256 PM...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERNS AT THIS TIME REVOLVE AROUND VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH                 
TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT AFFECTS ON POPS AND TEMPS. NOT MUCH HAPPENING            
ALONG THE FRONT AT THE MOMENT. TEMPS HAVE STARTED TO DROP AS WINDS              
INCREASED. WHILE PRECIP HASN'T STARTED YET...THINK WILL DEVELOP                 
OVERNIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS                     
TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. BOTH               
GFS/ETA SHOW INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT AS JET MAX             
DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN JET JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT             
LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS AND LIKELY              
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH AND HAVE GONE            
FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE (MODEL BLEND).                                         
COLD POOL IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY. HAVE                
LOWERED TEMPS EVERYWHERE WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER OUR CENTRAL                 
MISSOURI COUNTIES. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR                 
THURSDAY AS DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPS IN EARNEST BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.               
NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HAVE CONTINUED              
THE DRY FORECAST WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HAVE ALSO              
LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.            
FRONT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH QUICKER ON FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY                   
EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY.                              
THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL                
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE EFFECTS              
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND               
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.                                                              
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
700 PM MDT THU OCT 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING                  
ACROSS MONTANA...WITH WINDS DECREASING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.             
WINDS NOW BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL DROP ADVISORY A FEW                 
HOURS EARLY.                                                                    
18Z ETA/GFS ALONG WITH 21Z RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG FRONTOGENESIS            
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.                 
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER MONTANA THIS                  
EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO WESTERN              
MONTANA...AND IT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER MODELS            
INDICATED.                                                                      
00Z KUNR SOUNDING HAD FREEZING LEVEL AT 9200 FEET MSL...WITH WET                
BULB ZERO AT 6600 FEET MSL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WET                         
BULB/FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOULD END UP WITH             
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BEAR LODGE MOUNTAINS AND BLACK HILLS                
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. AS             
AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHWEST                
SOUTH DAKOTA...CEILINGS WILL COME DOWN. CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000FT               
AGL LIKELY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AFTER 06Z.                
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL OVER THE BLACK HILLS              
AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.SD...NONE.                                                                     
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1050 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REMANT CLOUDINESS FROM UPR LOW PRESSURE AREA LINGERING IN FAR ERN               
CWA...AND CLOUDS INCREASING FM W WITH STG WAA BAND IN ADVANCE OF                
WMFNT SLIDING THRU WRN SD. IMPRESSIVE UPR WAVE IN WRN MANITOBA                  
DIVING SEWRD TOWARD MN. ABR TO BIS RAOBS INDICATE PROCESS WHICH MUST            
OCCUR...SATURATING FROM MID LVLS.  LOTS OF WET BULB ROOM...BUT                  
INTENSITY OF PCPN SO FAR WITH GENERALLY TRACE AMTS UPSTREAM WL NOT              
MAKE THAT PROCESS TERRIBLY EFFICIENT...AND LKLY WL BE OVERWHELMED BY            
WARMING PROFILE...OTHERWISE...WOULD HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT A FEW                   
FLURRIES ON LEADING EDGE OF PCPN IN NWRN CWA THIS MORNING. LEADING              
BAND SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING IN FAVOR OF MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED               
AREA FARTHER TO THE NW FM SERN ND TO CNTRL SD.                                  
FAIRLY DISTINCT BAND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 300K TRANSLATES ACRS MOST            
OF CWA THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM...BUT SIGNATURE FOR LIFT STARTS             
TO WKN THIS AFTN AS IT HEADS TOWARD SERN CWA. SATURATION BECOMES THE            
CONCERN FOR PCPN...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM AND RAOBS DO NOT INTERPRET             
AS A PROBLEM. OVERALL...FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE              
SOMETHING FALLING FROM THE SKY TODAY...BUT THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE              
IS WHETHER IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE RAINFALL. COMFORT LEVEL ATTM              
IS TO KEEP TO ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...FAVORING BETTER QG                   
DYNAMICS WITH DIVING TROUGH NRN AND NERN CWA. WL BACK OFF SOMEWHAT              
ON TIMING...AS WELL AS INTENSITY...KEEPING FAR SE DRY THRU DAY.                 
KNOCKED TMPS BACK SOME ACRS JAMES VALLEY AREAS FOR AFTN AND TRENDED             
TO SLOW CLIMB...AS WL HAVE MUCH OF HEATING TIME IN CLOUDS...AND WIND            
SHIFT TO WLY DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL MAKE IT. FARTHER                     
W...EXPECT WIND SHIFT TO PROGRESS ENOUGH TO ALLOW MORE MIXING OF                
WARM PUSH AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES IN LATE AFTN...AND KEPT MAXES                
HIGHER.  ALSO RAISED TMPS SOMEWHAT IN E...AS WL HAVE APPRECIABLE                
SUNSHINE...AND TOOK TMPS CLOSER TOWARD 925 HPA MIXING VALUES BASED              
ON COOLER RUC/GFS.  UPDATED GRIDDED DATA OUT...AND TEXT ZONES SOON.             
&&                                                                              
.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
ISSUED BY NWS DES MOINES IA                                                     
1041 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR MRNG UPDATE WERE TEMP AND PCPN TRENDS.  PCPN               
SHOWING LTL MOVMT ON RADAR MOSAIC WITH LTL TO NO SIGN OF CIGS                   
LIFTING EITHER.  12Z RUC SHOWS MINIMAL HOPE OF CLRG EITHER WITH AT              
LEAST LYR OF MID CLDS IN PLACE...AND ST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.  LOW              
LVL RDG/COL BTWN WRN GRTLKS LOW AND APCHG NRN PLAINS SYS RMN TO THE             
W AS WELL...SO HAVE EXTENDED PCPN MENTION INTO EARLY AFTN AND RAISED            
POPS HIGHER INTO CHC CATEGORY DUE TO AREAL CVRG.  THIS LED TO                   
TRIMMING A FEW DEGREES OFF MAX TEMPS TOO.                                       
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN SOME DAY 4-7 PERIODS TO BETTER BLEND             
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES.  OTRW NO CHGS ATTM.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ARX...WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...                                            
IA...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
455 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TURN FROM PCPN TRENDS TODAY TO PCPN TYPE/AMOUNTS             
SAT AND WINDS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.                                          
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH             
A RDG OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROF FROM WRN ONTARIO AND THE UPR MS             
VALLEY INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY AND THE SERN CONUS. A POTENT SHRTWV               
OVER KY/TN WAS LIFTING NE TOWARD THE SRN GRT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A              
TROF AND FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDED FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO NW MN WHILE               
MAIN DEVELOPING LO WAS LOCATED OVER INDIANA. WEAK 700-600                       
FRONTOGENESIS AND 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED AN AREA OF                
RAIN FROM NRN LK MI ACRS THE E HLF OF UPR MI.                                   
TODAY...ETA/GFS/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHRTWV AND                 
ASSOCIATED LO PRES LIFTING NNE AND BRINGING DEEPENING SFC LOW                   
(AROUND 988 MB) TO NE LK HURON OR GEORGIAN BAY BY 00Z/SAT.                      
ADDITIONAL H25 JET ENERGY FROM THE PAC NW AND NRN PLAINS WILL HELP              
CLOSE OFF AN H5 LO INTO NW WI. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOCUS OF 700-600               
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE                 
CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GRADUALLY SLIDE                  
WESTWARD. SO...CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE CWA FROM PREVIOUS FCST                 
STILL LOOK ON TRACK ONCE COVERAGE PUSHES WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON.                
HOWEVER WITH GENERALLY WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND MOISTURE INFLOW...PCPN            
AMOUNTS/INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH TOTALS GENERALLY BLO 0.25            
INCH.                                                                           
TONIGHT...WHILE MDLS DISPLAY REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH SFC LOW                  
TRACK/TIMING WITH TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY QUICKER PROGRESSION...FCST              
HEDGED TOWARD SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA/UKMET WITH 980 MB LOW NE OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR (CYXZ) BY 12Z/SAT. DECENT DEEP LYR QVECTOR CONV TO THE                 
NORTH OF THE DEEPENING H5 LOW OVER WI SHOULD SUSTAIN PERIOD OF PCPN             
OVER UPR MI. COLD ADVECTION AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH SHOULD                
DRAW IN ENOUGH COLD AIR TO BRING MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND               
MAINLY -SHSN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF W UPR MI BTWN 06Z-12Z USING                 
ETA/GFS BLEND 1305 1000-850 THICKNESS AS APPROXIMATE RAIN/SNOW                  
LINE.                                                                           
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WHILE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS LACKING FOR                 
PUNCH OF HIGHER WINDS...VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WITH 15-17 MB PRES                  
DIFFERENCE ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WITH SUBSTANTIAL                          
DESTABILIZATION JUSTIFIES RETENTION OF HIGH WIND WATCH AND HIGH END             
GALE OUTLOOK FOR THE LAKE. THE ETA/GFS PROG 40-50 KT WITHIN THE                 
MIXED LYR BTWN 21Z-03Z. WAVE HEIGHTS FCST TO NEAR 17 FT NEAR THE                
KEWEENAW AND ABV 20 FT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE LAKE COULD ALSO               
CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING IN SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS. WRAP-AROUND               
PCPN CONTINUES WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND STRONG SFC-700              
CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS THE REGION. VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO SETS UP FOR              
LAKE ENHANCED PCPN (H8 TEMPS TO AROUND -6C GIVING LK-H8 DELTA T TO              
AROUND 14C) OVER W UPR MI LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW FLOW SUCH AS THE             
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR M-38.            
WHILE ETA FCST SNDGS DEPICT SHALLOW ENOUGH WARM LYR FOR MAINLY                  
SNOW...RELATIVELY WARM WATER(READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S) AND              
VERY STRONG WINDS MAY DISPLACE HEAVIER PCPN FAR INLAND OR PAST THE              
NARROWER PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW (AS IS TYPICAL IN EARLY SEASON LES)            
TO LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SO...EVEN THOUGH ETA QPF OUTPUT WOULD                
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVY LVL SNOWFALL...AMOUNTS LIMITED TO                    
1-3 INCH RANGE FOR NOW...FOR INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND                
INTO THE HURON MTS. AS THE MID LVL LOW LIFTS FAR ENOUGH NE TOWARD               
JAMES BAY BY LATE SAT NIGHT...QG FORCING WILL WEAKEN WITH DRIER                 
700-500 MB AIR MOVING INTO W LK SUPERIOR FOR PCPN TO DIMINISH OVER              
THE WEST.                                                                       
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PCPN INTO THE               
ERN HLF OF THE CWA WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE TO THE WEST AS WEAK RDG                
PUSHES INTO THE WRN LAKES. SINCE ETA/GFS/UKMET SUGGEST PCPN                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHRTWV WILL REMAIN S OF UPR MI...POPS WERE             
TAPERED BACK AND MAY EVENTUALLY BE DROPPED IF MDLS REMAIN CONSISTENT            
WITH THIS TREND.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WATCH SAT/SAT EVNG                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED AVIATION/MARINE                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1055 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                     
.UPDATE:                                                                        
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS WAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE            
OHIO VALLEY...AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TILT TO A NEGATIVE                        
ORIENTATION. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 120-140KT               
SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHILE A 120KT                    
NORTHWESTERLY JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. 13Z SURFACE             
ANALYSIS PLACES A 991MB OCCLUDED LOW EAST OF DETROIT...WITH THE                 
TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NEAR PITTSBURGH. A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT                   
EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE TRIPLE POINT THROUGH THE CENTRAL                
DELMARVA...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.            
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS NEARING THE BLUE RIDGE.                                
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MUCH MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAN ANTICIPATED               
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING                   
VERTICAL VELOCITIES ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION             
OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALLOW              
WINDS AND WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN TO INCREASE AS WELL AS                  
PROVIDING FAVORABLE LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL                  
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOW ANY FRONTAL            
PASSAGE. FOR THIS REASON PREFER THE ETA OVER THE GFS FRONTAL TIMING.            
OUR EXTREME EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AS             
THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION TO FOCUS              
ON WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HIGH AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND            
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL MAINTAIN SUPPORT FOR A LINE OF DEEPER SHOWER             
ACTIVITY. SURFACE WINDS EVEN IN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE BLUE                
RIDGE REMAIN BACKED DUE TO THE TRANSLATION OF THE SYSTEM AND                    
RESULTANT PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST. AS THE FRONT/LINE OF                 
SHOWERS REACHES THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL                     
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE WHEN COMPARED TO CURRENT POSITION OF THE                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO DEEPEN.             
ANY DEEP SHOWER/CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE             
ABILITY TO PROVIDE FOR GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS...AS THE FRONT                   
TRANSLATES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE             
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. 12Z RUC BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS             
INDICATE 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE                 
RIDGE. IF DEEP CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE            
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WHICH MAY INCLUDE SHORT LIVED TORNADOES            
IN ADDITION TO GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL               
WEATHER STATEMENT TO DISCUSS THIS RISK.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION: STRATO CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE                        
MIDDAY...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL                
BOUNDAY FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. WILL BE WATCHING                
RADAR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF THUNDER IN TAFS. SOUTHERLY               
WINDS MAY GUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE             
FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WINDS GUST FROM              
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS              
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING...MAINTAING GUSTY WINDS AS THEY VEER            
TO THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT AS IT                  
APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE             
HIGHER NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WATER LEVELS ARE A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL             
WITH THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW.                                               
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE FORECASTER: ROGOWSKI                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
940 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF THUNDER TO MUCH OF THE                
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES PICKED UP ACROSS              
LAKE ERIE/NORTHERN OHIO. 06Z ETA CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AN AREA OF WEAK            
SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WITH THETA-E NEUTRAL TO DECREASING SLIGHTLY               
WITH HEIGHT...ALIGNED WITH STEEPER 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF             
THE DRY SLOT OF THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE OVER OHIO. THIS IS APPARENTLY             
ENOUGH TO GET STRONGER UPRIGHT CONVECTION WITH PRETTY GOOD UPWARD               
MOTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS LAKE ERIE                 
TODAY...WITH THE RUC TAKING IT A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ETA.                
CROSS SECTIONS/PLAN VIEWS SHOW THIS INSTABILITY WEAKENING A BIT                 
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME...BUT WITH AN AREA OF                   
THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO LIFTING THROUGH THE THUMB. UPDATED TO             
ADD THUNDER GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF BAD AXE TO HOWELL...ONLY CHANCE              
WORDING BASED ON DECREASING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                    
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED...STICKING WITH                   
CATEGORICAL POPS AND LITTLE TEMPERATURE REBOUND.                                
&&                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                   
A TRUE SIGN OF AUTUMN WITH VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF                
120KTS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI            
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.  DEEPENING UPPER LOW ROTATING INTO                   
INDIANA IS EVIDENT WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF EVOLVING WITH EVEN SOME                 
CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS (PER LIGHTNING                 
DETECTION NETWORK) AND ON THE EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT...STEEPING LAPSE             
RATES.  THIS WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER PLAYER FOR TODAY AND HEADING              
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.  H2O VAPOR LOOP/ANALYSIS REVEALS                    
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROF HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH SURFACE            
REFLECTIONS SHOWING RAPID PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS INDIANA.  AREA                  
RADARS BEGINNING TO FILL IN NICELY UPSTREAM AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE             
A VERY WET END TO THIS WEEK BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE ROUGHLY LESS THAN               
HALF THE PREVIOUS RUNS.  00Z RAOBS UPSTREAM INDICATED PRECIPITABLE              
WATERS AROUND 0.75" SO AVAILABILITY WILL BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY               
THOUGHT.  MODELS STILL PAINT A NEAR METEOROLOGICAL BOMB BUT AT A                
SLOWER RATE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.                                                 
MODEL INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS AND TO SPARE THE                            
REDUNDANCY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PMDHMD.                                        
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL ENCOMPASS US THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH TO            
NORTH AS MAIN UPPER DIFLUENCE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS             
THE REGION.  AFOREMENTIONED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM APPEARS TO              
BE A COMBINATION FROM RAPID ACCELERATION IN THE VERTICAL FROM THIS              
DEEPENING CYCLONE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE DRY SLOT.                      
NEVERTHELESS, SHOWALTER INDICES WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY IS AROUND 1-2C             
WHICH IS PROGGED TO HEAD NORTH AND IMPACT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.                 
CROSS SECTIONS PER THE ETA/GFS DO HAVE SOME NEGATIVE EPV IN THE MID             
LEVELS WHICH IS UNDER THE DEFORMATION AXIS...YET LAPSE RATES ARE                
MORE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  THEREFORE, WE WILL KEEP THE            
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO               
HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.  OTHERWISE, DEFORMATION DYNAMICS WILL                 
BECOME MORE DOMINANT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISALLOBARIC                
COUPLET NOW FURTHER SOUTH (ALONG AND NORTH OF I69).  THIS COULD                 
BRING ABOUT A BRIEF GUST LATE TODAY BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA.  WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES               
WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH (MID 50S).                                                
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS THIS EVENING AS IT PULLS NORTH TOWARD JAMES                 
BAY.  NEEDLESS TO SAY, GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS MAIN UPPER LOW DIVES                
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE                  
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH 850MB            
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C.  RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF UNTIL FULL             
WRAP AROUND AND LAKE CONTRIBUTION OCCURS AFTER 06Z.  TEMPERATURES               
WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH WIND CHILLS HOVERING NEAR              
THE FREEZING MARK!                                                              
SATURDAY CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS CHILLY AND DAMP.  WITH LAKE-AIR DELTA             
T'S NEAR 20C AND IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (NOT TO MENTION               
NEAR -30C AT 500MB), WE WILL INCREASE OUR COVERAGE AND POPS TO                  
LIKELY FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND KEEP TEMPS AROUND 50F!  STILL SOME                  
CONCERN FOR WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES WITH CENTER OF SURFACE PRESSURE             
RISE COMING ACROSS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
FROM THE GFS WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, SUGGEST MID LEVEL WINDS            
ARE DECREASING WITH CURRENT PROGS TAPPING INTO 35-40KTS...AND LATER             
IN THE DAY.  WE WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN THE HWO AND WE WILL HOLD            
BACK ON HOISTING GALE WARNINGS (BEYOND 24 HOURS FROM THIS POINT) FOR            
THE OPEN AND NEARSHORE WATERS.                                                  
A VERY CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS MAIN LOW BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED                
FROM THE PICTURE YET DEEP CYCLONIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...MAINLY                
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  WE WILL RETAIN OUR CURRENT CHANCE GRIDS AT THIS               
TIME.  IN ADDITION, 1000-850 THICKNESSES AND WET BULB PROFILES STILL            
POINT TO SOME OF THAT WHITE MATERIAL TO FALL ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES              
REGION AND PERHAPS INTO THE THUMB (BUT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER              
WITH CONTRIBUTION FROM SAGINAW BAY).                                            
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND A REBOUND IN THE TEMPS SHOULD MAKE FOR            
A BETTER LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE                
REGION.  HOWEVER, FORECAST MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS AND DISAGREEMENTS               
WITH UPSTREAM WARM ADVECTION COULD STILL HOLD BACK TEMPS SOMEWHAT.              
BUT WE WILL HOLD ONTO OUR DRY FORECAST.                                         
THESE DISAGREEMENTS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR AN OVER-RUNNING EVENT SETTING UP PER THE                          
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN-GLOBAL AND GFS.  DPROG/DT AT THIS TIME FRAME               
SHOWS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND WE ARE RELUCTANT TO MAKE                     
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME..                              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN                      
EFFECT...TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY...FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BGM                                                                             
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1010 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC DOES NOT SHOW A LOT OF RAIN NEAR THE REGION THIS            
MORNING. HOWEVER, A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD             
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.                
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EVEN SHOWING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE                   
OVERCAST (SOME SUNSHINE PEAKING OUT HERE AT THE OFFICE), ESPECIALLY             
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND INTO DELAWARE. THE                  
THINKING THIS MORNING IS THAT THESE BREAKS WILL NOT LAST TO LONG AS             
MORE CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL              
LOW AND SURFACE WAVE IS ACROSS OHIO WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT                
APPROACHING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT THIS TIME. AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS            
TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD OUR            
CWA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE GREATEST HEIGHT                
FALLS/INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEAR TO BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH,         
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST CONVECTION SOUTH OF OUR AREA.                   
AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, WITH STRONGER              
WINDS UP AROUND 850 MB. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT ANY CONVECTION                     
THAT FORMS MAY BE ABLE TO TAP SOME OF THAT WIND, ESPECIALLY CLOSER              
TO FROPA. IT APPEARS THAT ANY WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE               
LEVELS WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS             
WILL BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
GIVEN THE LATEST OBS, RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH THE RUC           
GUIDANCE, AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO REWORD THE FORECAST AS SHOWERS.           
WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT             
GETS CLOSER AND CROSSES THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. HOURLY TEMPS               
AND DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.                
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE MARINE FORECAST, OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO              
THE WINDS AND WEATHER. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS REPORTED THIS                   
MORNING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY WITH WATER ON SOME ROADWAYS.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                   
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AS ADDITIONAL            
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.  THE UPPER            
LOW REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH             
THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE             
WILL MOVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER IT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE                  
REGION AND IT WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.                         
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE             
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.  THE             
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD END THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTH TO               
NORTH. AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ARE EXPECTED                
OVER THE AREA...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.                               
WINDS WILL GUST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND WILL REMAIN IN THE              
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                
BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE                
SOUTH.                                                                          
THERE COULD BE A PASSING COLD ADVECTION SHOWER DURING THE DAY ON                
SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH HIGH              
PRESSURING STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND BUILDING               
NORTHWARD.  A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO                
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF            
SOME RAIN...WITH WARMING TEMPS ARE IN STORE.  CURRENT MODEL DATA                
INDICATE THAT FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
I WILL BE GOING WITH SCA ALL WATERS THIS FCST. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND               
SEAS CURRENT ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA...GUSTINESS SHOULD INCREASE THIS            
EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD               
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. I HELD OFF ON ANY GALES SINCE THE LATEST            
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS.                 
CONSIDERING THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW IS SO FAR TO THE WEST, THIS               
LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW.                                                       
THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING              
WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE S LATE            
MON NIGHT/TUE BUT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT DONT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH              
TO JUSTIFY ANY HEADLINES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOME LIGHT FOG HAS LOWERED VSBY TO 1-3 NM WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE                 
P6SM. RDG BRIEFLY WENT BELOW 1 NM. WITH THE CLOUDS COMING IN FROM               
THE SW...AND RAIN DEVELOPING THE FOG SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WITH               
VSBYS BECOMING WIDESPREAD 2-5NM WITH THE RAIN AND LIGHT FOG                     
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CIGS ARE SPOTTY BELOW 1 THSD FT WITH MOST AREAS             
1-3K FT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE EVEN WITH THE RAIN. THE               
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE SW SHIFTING WINDS TO            
THE W BETWEEN 21-00Z. CB IS IN THE FCST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH             
ENOUGH TO CARRY ANY GROUPS FOR ACTUAL TSRA.                                     
&&                                                                              
.TIDAL DISCUSSION...                                                            
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND HIGH TIDES                   
ALTHOUGH IT IS MARGINAL. THE CURRENT SPS WILL BE CONTINUED AND                  
INDICATE THIS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A GENERAL RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.50               
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  THERE              
COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS                 
EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT                    
EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.                                            
$$                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
DE...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ZONES ANZ450>455 ANZ430>431.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...GORSE                                                                  
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...LSN                                                      
AVIATION/MARINE/TIDAL DISCUSSION...RNS                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1002 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING THRU MN WITH 115 KT JET DIGGING ON                
BACK SIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS. SECONDARY ENERGY ROTATING INTO ERN MT             
WITH BREAK IN JET CORE...ENHANCING MID AND HIGH CLDS INTO WRN SD.               
A FEW LIGHT SHRA ALG LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS ON KFSD 88D SLIDING JUST            
EAST OF AREA...BUT FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE. SEVERAL FAIRLY MINOR                    
CONCERNS TODAY...BUT WL FOCUS ON TMPS AND WNDS.                                 
ETA CONTINUES TO RUN ABOUT 2-3C WARMER AT LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES              
COMPARED TO RUC/GFS...AND FOR NOW WL FAVOR SLIGHTLY COOLER PICTURE              
ON RUC FOR MIXED TMPS TDA. DID END UP RAISING A FEW TMPS ACRS MORE              
SUNNY PARTS OF NW IA...WHERE TMPS LKLY TO REACH MIDDAY MAX AHEAD OF             
CLDS. FCST WINDS IN MIXED LYR SEEM TO GRAVITATE TO AROUND 35 KTS                
MAX...SO WOULD SUGGEST STEER CLEAR OF WIND ADVISORY...WITH A FEW                
GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR SO AS MIXED LAYER DEEPENS A BIT INTO AFTERNOON.              
UPDATED FCST EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE RAPID WIND INCREASE...AND              
MORE SOLID CLOUD SHIELD FOR A TIME MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY N AND NE.                
SHAVED A DEGREE OF TWO OFF FAR NRN CWA AS WELL. DID NOT COMPLETELY              
REASSESS PRECIP TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION WITH FORMER UPDATE...AND IN               
FACE OF STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON...WL                 
LKLY REFINE LATER MORNING TO REMOVE OR DROP TO A FEW SPRINKLES IN               
SW MN...WHERE FCST RAOBS STILL INDICATING A VERY SMALL TOUCH OF LOW             
TOPPED POSITIVE AREA.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1025 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LARGE AREA PCPN WORKING NE THRU ERN CAROLINAS              
AHEAD VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE DEEP SOUTH. OTHER THAN                
LTST RUC RUN...MODELS SOMEWHAT UNDERESTIMATING AMOUNT AND INTENSITY             
OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS PCPN BAND SO WILL TIME PCPN ENDING                  
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/LTST RUC. WITH THIS IN MIND...EASTERN                   
2/3RDS FCST AREA (BASICALLY EAST OF I95) LIKELY TO SEE PERIODS OF               
STEADIER RAIN THEN ENDING EARLY AFTN INLAND AREAS AND MID/LATE                  
AFTN ENDING TIMES FOR CSTL REGIONS.                                             
SEVERE TS THREAT IS LOW WITH CLOUDS/COOLING RAINS HAVING LIMITED                
INSTABILITY AND GIVEN THE MEAGER WIND SHEAR PROFILES. LTG ACTIVITY              
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO OFFSHORE THUS FAR BUT EXPECT SOME LTG/DEEPER               
CONVECTION WL DEVELOP OVR ERN CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY AS JET DYNAMICS               
GET BETTER ORGANIZED AHEAD OF APPROACHING IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE. SO             
WILL KEEP TS MENTION GOING WHILE MINIMIZING THE SVR THREAT.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONITE)...FA PROGGED BTWN MAIN ENGY LIFTG N               
INTO PA AND CONVECTIVE LINE OF PCPN FROM CAROLINAS ON S. UPSHOT WILL            
BE A PRD OF PCPN SHWRS TDY...ENDING W-E THIS AFTRN AS DRY SLOT MOVES            
E. AS FRNTL BNDRY CROSSES FA...INCRG LL JET COMBINED WITH BAND OF               
THETHA E & LI'S AOB 0...SHUD MAKE AIRMASS UNSTABLE ENUF FOR SCT TSRA.           
LESS THREAT W OF I95...GREATEST ALONG CSTL SCTNS. XPCT TO SEE A LINE            
OF TSRA DVLP THEN MOVG E ACROSS FA WHICH SHUD INTENSIFY (SPCLLY IF              
ANY HTNG OCCURS) AS THEY APPROACH THE CHES BAY. ANY TSRA WILL HAVE              
PTNTL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WNDS...BUT SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM.              
MODELS SUGGESTING THAT PCPN MAY TAKE UNTIL ARND 00Z TO EXIT OFF LWR             
MD ERN SHORE...SO HAVE INCLUDED A 20 POP THERE FOR ERLY EVE. OTW...             
DRYER AIR RPDLY MOVES IN CLRG SKIES OUT FOR TONITE ALONG WITH INCRG             
WND SPEEDS AS CAA SETS IN.                                                      
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LOW PRES CONTS TO INTENSIFY             
AS IT LIFTS N INTO SRN CANADA BY SAT NITE. PRS GRDNT ARND SYSTM                 
RESULTS IN RTHR BREEZY TO WNDY DAY (AVG 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS).           
GFS INDCTG PIECE OF NRGY SPINNING ARND UPR LVL LOW PRODUCES SCT AFTRN           
SHWRS N OF FA WHICH CUD ROTATE INTO LWR MD ERN SHORE AFTR 18Z. THUS             
WILL ADD A 20 POPS TO THAT AREA IN GRIDS. OTW...JUST AFTRN CU DVLPS             
AS STRNG DOWNSLOPING OFFSETS ANY ADDTNL PCPN COVERAGE.                          
HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO RGN SUN INTO ERLY MON ALONG WITH A WRMG TREND.             
MODELS DIVERGE BY LATE MON AS ETA GENERATES SOME QPF AHEAD OF                   
ADVANCING WRM FRNT. GFS FRTHR W WITH BNDRY AND DRYER. THUS HAVE ADDED           
20 POPS MON AFTRN TO GRIDS ACROSS NRN AREAS. ANTHR CDFRNT PROGGED               
ACROSS FA TUE FOLLOWED BY COOLER CNDTNS BY MID WEEK.                            
AVIATION...VFR CNDTNS GNRLY XPCTD. HOWEVER...LCL MVFR THRU 18Z IVOF             
RIC AND THRU 00Z CSTL TAF SITES DUE TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. W WNDS BEGIN              
TO INCRS AFTR 06Z TONITE.                                                       
MARINE...SCA ALL AREAS. HAVE LOWERED GALE THREAT TONITE THINKING                
THAT STRNGST WNDS ON SAT WILL HOLD JUST BLO GALE CRITERIA. CUD SEE              
AN OCNL GUST TO 35 KT THOUGH.                                                   
FIRE WEATHER...WILL HIGHLIGHT FWF THIS AM FOR GUSTY WNDS LATE TONITE            
AND SAT.  MIN RH VALUES SHUD DROP TO BTWN 30-40% SAT AFTRN.                     
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONE NCZ102 THROUGH SATURDAY.                     
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONES ANZ630>632-656-658-633                  
THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                               
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONES ANZ650-652-654 THROUGH SUNDAY.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...CULLEN                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
955 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...TODAY                                                                 
RADAR/SATELLITE DATA SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL                    
MINNESOTA.  THIS AREA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST...AND WILL ENTER THE                  
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING.  THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN RESPONSE             
TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST 12Z RUC/ETA                 
RUNS.                                                                           
THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY                     
ADVECTION WILL MOVE OVER THE SAME PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS             
DEPICTED BY THE RUC/ETA SOLUTIONS.  THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED                  
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCORPORATE THIS LATEST THINKING.               
KRC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY                                                     
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE             
WEEKEND.                                                                        
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED LOW PRESSURE NEAR KIND            
AND ANOTHER ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA.              
00Z MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ETA ARE PRESENTING SOMEWHAT SIMILAR               
SOLUTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL                 
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AS ANOTHER CUT OFF            
LOW MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BOTH                   
MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BUT THE GFS            
INDICATES MORE PV ADVECTION AND PRODUCES MORE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION            
THAN THE ETA. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING              
DURING THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL               
CYCLONIC FLOW...SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT SOME LIGHT QPF TODAY. ONLY           
ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO LIMIT THE POPS FOR THE MORNING           
HOURS TO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.                                   
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME WEAK                  
UPGLIDE ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP           
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING. COME CONCERNS DEVELOP ABOUT                     
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ETA BUFKIT DATA SHOWS ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE                
LOW LEVELS MOVES IN TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHEAST               
MINNESOTA AROUND 06Z. COLD AIR THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH                  
THE BUFKIT DATA NOT SHOWING KDBQ AND KAUW NOT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW             
UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT DATABASE INDICATES A MIX OF RAIN               
AND SNOW FOR ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST              
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO               
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS.                                                     
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY               
AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHUTTING OFF ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION. NEXT               
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES SUNDAY SETTING UP A WARM            
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE AREA. GOOD UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ON THE               
290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE WITH UP TO 5-6 UBAR/S BY LATE SUNDAY                    
AFTERNOON. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER AS WELL TO SUPPORT              
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME RAIN. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST ANY RAIN CHANCE               
WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE              
POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING.                                                        
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                       
CURRENT DATABASE INDICATES A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE             
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN THE LOWER PLAINS AND TAKES THIS               
NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN INDIANA THROWING SOME PRECIPITATION                   
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OPTED TO              
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...              
LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME POPS.                                      
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ARX...WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...                                            
IA...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KRC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE AREA PRECEDED BY A                      
DIMINISHING LINE OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  CLOUD            
BAND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE TO                 
INCLUDE A SMALL EARLY EVENING POP FOR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...MAINLY               
MARTIN COUNTY...BUT OTHERWISE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY IN            
NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.                            
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF            
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE EARLY MORNING.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A                
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MAV GUIDANCE SHOWING THE COMBINATION              
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN RATHER               
UNIFORM LOWER 50S AREAWIDE.  THIS WOULD BE IN LINE TO SET SOME                  
RECORD LOWS IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS (VERO BEACH RECORD LOW FOR 10/16 IS            
56).                                                                            
SAT-SUN...                                                                      
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE WRN GOMEX WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FL            
PENINSULA THRU SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NWRLY             
FLOW IN THE H85-H30 LYR.  THE RIDGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY               
DRY AIRMASS...LATEST RUC80 ANALYSIS INDICATES H100-H50 MEAN RH                  
VALUES AOB 40% OVER THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE, TX TO                 
CEDAR KEY, FL.  VERY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT            
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT...WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS              
BY A FEW DEGREES.                                                               
WILL SEE A RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ON SUN AS THE RIDGE AXIS AND ITS                 
ACCOMPANYING DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE SW ATLC.  TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO            
NEAR CLIMO LVLS...BUT THE AIR WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP.            
MON-FRI...                                                                      
DRY WX PATTERN IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK AS MID RANGE MODELS INDICATES             
AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE MERGING WITH THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WRN                  
ATLC.  THE COMBINED RIDGE WILL DEEPEN THE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE             
H50 LYR...BUT THE EASTERLIES WILL TAP ONLY TAP THE AFOREMENTIONED               
DRY AIR MASS. THE LOW LVL AIR GRADUALLY WILL MODIFY OVER THE                    
ATLC...BUT CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL BE TOO DRY TO ALLOW ANYTHING MORE              
THAN ISOLD LOW-TOPPED COASTAL SHRAS TO DEVELOP.  EVEN THEN...POPS               
ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST ATTM.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCA WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND SURGE BEHIND               
THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.  WHILE THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AOB               
5FT...THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE VERY SHORT PD SEAS...GENERALLY            
BLO 5SEC.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SAT AFTN AS RIDGE SLIDES                  
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE ATLC...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AOB               
15KTS DEVELOPING BY SUN AFTN.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON LOW RH VALUES TO              
DROP INTO THE 40-45 PERCENT RANGE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  52  78  57  82 /   0   0   0   0                                           
MCO  52  80  58  85 /   0   0   0   0                                           
MLB  52  79  58  83 /   0   0   0   0                                           
VRB  52  79  57  83 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.                       
  ...FLOOD WARNING MIDDLE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASCODY                                                            
LONG TERM...BRAGAW                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
137 PM MDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                          
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...MODELS HANDLING TODAYS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT             
WELL...WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW/CONVERGENCE AT 700               
MB/FRONTOGENESIS COMBINING TO PRODUCE THE LIFT. FORCING SHIFTS SOUTH            
AND WEAKENS THIS EVENING...AND WILL MONITOR LAST MINUTE RADAR TRENDS            
FOR EVENING PRECIP CHANCES. SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ALONG THE KANSAS              
COLORADO STATE LINE BY 09Z. DESPITE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT                     
WINDS...PLENTIFUL MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH                       
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO DO NOT EXPECT TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE                   
TEMPERATURES. RUCII SHOWING STREAM OF STRATUS COMING UP INTO EASTERN            
COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING IN RETURN FLOW...AND THIS MAY HAMPER                  
MORNING WARM UP. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WILL             
ALLOW A NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES...WARMEST IN THE WEST WITH                 
SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND.                                 
SUNDAY/MONDAY...DAMPENING SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE             
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT CENTERED AROUND                           
00Z/18...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SCARCE...AND WITH WESTERLY LOW              
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST INTACT.                 
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THE REAL CHALLENGE...WITH MUCH WARMER                      
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD             
OF THE SHORTWAVE PUTTING A LID ON AMOUNT OF SUN...BUT GFS MOS                   
APPEARS MUCH TOO COLD BASED ON 850 TEMPERATURES FROM THE ETA/ECMWF              
AND UKMET. HAVE PLAYED MIDDLE GROUND TO STAY WITHIN TOLERANCE OF                
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...CLOSE TO FWC GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY THEN SLIGHTLY             
COOLER ON MONDAY WITH A SHOT OF COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE                   
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. COULD POTENTIALLY BE EVEN                       
WARMER...WITH RECORDS THIS TIME OF YEAR STILL IN THE UPPER 80S AND              
LOWER 90S.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                           
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING OF LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO             
MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. AS OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE               
OPERATIONAL GFS FASTEST AND IRONICALLY THE ONLY CLOSED UPPER LOW                
SOLUTION. DGEX SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WHILE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND ECMWF                
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER KICKING OUT THE SYSTEM. ALL THE MODELS                      
FORECASTING STRONGEST DYNAMICS TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST                      
AREA...WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS MOST LIKELY IN THE OKLAHOMA OR                 
TEXAS PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE             
DURATION...SPILLING IN WITH NORTH WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION             
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...THE MAIN              
LIFTING MECHANISM. EASTERN ZONES MAY GET SOME WRAPAROUND WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE SLOWER                   
SOLUTIONS AS WELL...WHICH MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO                    
THURSDAY. MUCH WEAKER KICKER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH ON                       
FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMICS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS TIME AND            
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
253 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A VIGOROUS WAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE            
OHIO VALLEY...AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TILT TO A NEGATIVE                        
ORIENTATION. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 120-140KT               
SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WHILE A 120KT                    
NORTHWESTERLY JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. 13Z SURFACE             
ANALYSIS PLACES A 991MB OCCLUDED LOW EAST OF DETROIT...WITH THE                 
TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NEAR PITTSBURGH. A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT                   
EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE TRIPLE POINT THROUGH THE CENTRAL                
DELMARVA...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.            
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS NEARING THE BLUE RIDGE.                                
LOCAL ACARS SOUNDING AND KLWX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOW WINDS AND WIND              
SHEAR INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN. TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL SYSTEM TO            
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOW ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE.             
FOR THIS REASON PREFER THE SLOWER ETA OVER THE GFS FRONTAL TIMING.              
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY            
NEAR THE COLD FRONT. SPORADIC CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN                
RECORDED ALREADY. HIGH AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DYNAMICAL                 
FORCING WILL MAINTAIN SUPPORT FOR A LINE OF DEEPER SHOWER ACTIVITY.             
SURFACE WINDS EVEN IN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE REMAIN             
SLIGHTLY BACKED DUE TO THE TRANSLATION OF THE SYSTEM AND RESULTANT              
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST. AS THE FRONT/LINE OF SHOWERS                   
REACHES THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE WHEN               
COMPARED TO CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL                 
FAVOR DEEPENING CONVECTION.                                                     
ANY DEEP SHOWER/CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE             
ABILITY TO PROVIDE FOR GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS...AS THE FRONT                   
TRANSLATES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE             
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. 12Z RUC BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS             
INDICATE 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE                 
RIDGE. IF DEEP CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE            
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WHICH MAY INCLUDE SHORT LIVED TORNADOES            
IN ADDITION TO GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS                                          
SUSTAINED AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED EARLY                   
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH PRESSURE RISES ARE              
RATHER INSIGNIFICANT BEHIND THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY. MAINTAINED POPS               
INTO THE EVENING WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...AND OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE            
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW.                                              
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS BOUNDARY DOES                
POSSES A PRESSURE RISE CENTER...AND THIS WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO              
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING DURING MID MORNING MIXING.                   
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN                   
FORECAST AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY.                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SAT NGT THROUGH FRI...                                             
UPR COLD POOL WL BE SWINGING THRU SAT NGT-SUN MRNG...GIVING CWFA A              
GLANCING BLOW. WNDS WL STAY UP AS WELL...W/ H8 WNDS AOA 40 KT BY                
12Z/17. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTED IN THEREAFTR...AND               
WUD ANTICIPATE CLRG SKIES THRU THE AFTN ON SUN. HIPRES RDG /SFC-H8/             
WL BE CNTRLLG WX FEATURE.                                                       
CI FM NEXT SYSTEM STARTS STREAMING IN ELY MON MRNG. MON WL BE A DAY             
OF WAA...AND THUS INCRSG CLDCVR. MOST FORCING HOLDS OFF TIL TUE.                
HWVR...PLENTY SOURCES OF LIFT /PVA...WAA...ISEN UPGLIDE...AND                   
EVENTUAL WK WMFNT/ TO INCREASE POPS THRU MON NGT.                               
STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS ENVELOPE DUE TO CAA SAT NGT. NO SIG              
CHGS TO MAXT SUN. DID NOT GO AS XTRM AS MET MOS SUN NGT...BUT DID GO            
ON COLD SIDE AGN DUE TO CLR SKIES AND LGT WNDS.                                 
XTNDD...SFC LOW SPINS INTO GRTLKS AND WEAKENS. ATTENDANT CDFNT                  
APPROACHES CWFA ON TUE. MARGIN OF ERROR FAIRLY HIGH THO AS FRNTL                
BNDRY STALLS AND BECOMES QSTNRY ACRS CWFA. AMS WL BE WARM/HUMID TO              
THE S...COOL/DAMP TO THE N. ATTM...AM RELUCTANT TO CHG FCST                     
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING PINNING             
DOWN THE FRNTL POSN THIS FAR OUT. FAIRLY SAFE TO SAY THAT BEST CHC              
FOR PCPN WL BE ON TUE AS FRNT APPCHS...AND AGN THU NGT-FRI AS ENERGY            
EJECTS FM SRN STREAM SYSTEM INVOF TX/OK. TIMING OF LATTER FROPA                 
SUSPECT AS WELL...SINCE UPR RDGG WL REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS WRN ATLC.              
HV MINIMIZED DIURNAL RANGES IN TEMP CURVE DUE TO XTNSV CLDCVR.                  
OTRW...FEW CHGS MADE THRU THE PD.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION: CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON ABOVE                 
THINKING AND CURRENT RADAR...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER WITH              
THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS             
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS                
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN OVERNIGHT...ONLY TO GUST AGAIN                  
TOMORROW AFTER MORNING MIXING.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SCA CONDS ATTM IN THE SLY FLOW AHD OF THE CDFNT. SCA WL               
CONT TNGT THRU SUN IN STRONG POST-FRNTL CAA. 25 KT WNDS ONLY SVRL               
HND FT OFF THE WATER...AND WL EASILY MIX TO SFC SAT AFTN.                       
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND CHESAPEAKE BAY.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION FORECASTER: ROGOWSKI                                        
LONG TERM/MARINE FORECASTER: HTS                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
331 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL AND            
WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER LAKE ERIE             
EMBEDDED IN A LONG WAVE TROUGH OF CENTRAL CANADA. A BROAD RIDGE IS              
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW IS OVER MINNESOTA WORKING             
ITS WAY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE ANALYSIS               
INDICATES A DEEP LOW OVER LAKE HURON WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING                
DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABORD. COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF             
THIS LOW IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH A SURFACE               
RIDGE. THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON             
IS CONTRIBUTING THE RAIN OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND MERGE                
WITH THE LOW OVER MINNESOTA AS IT SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKE                  
MICHIGAN. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT MOST             
OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN OVER WISCONSIN. SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT                
NORTH INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CONTINUE              
TO SHOW WEAK ASCENT OVER THE AREA. ETA/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS                   
SHOWING NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM                 
SURFACE TO 500MB. THUS WITH THE WEAK ASCENT AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE EXPECT TO SEE RAINS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE LAPSE RATE OF              
5-6 C/KM OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL AID IN THE MIXING DOWN TO                  
SURFACE OF THE 850MB WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARMER LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WATER.                                                                 
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO ON SATURDAY              
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL REACH SOUTHERN JAMES BAY. A WEAK SURFACE             
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA            
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ETA SHOW                
WEAK ASCENT CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. THUS STILL LOOKING FOR                 
CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS PROJECT THE 850MB               
TEMPERATURES AT -3C OVER THE EAST PART OF CWA TO -6C OVER THE WEST.             
THUS SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY OVER THE WEST WITH RAINS OVER EAST FOR             
SATURDAY. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOKS CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH              
OF 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WINDS TO MIX TO SURFACE ON                       
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE                    
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THUS WILL HAVE HIGH WIND ADVISORIES OVER THE                
KEWEENAW PENISULA AND ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES.                                  
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN JAMES               
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PRECEDE THIS LOW INTO                  
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WHILE DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN                  
ONTARIO. COLD DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE                   
FORECAST AREA. GFS/ETA SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL               
LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE/850MB               
DELTA-T'S OR 14C WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOWS ESPECIALLY            
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF CWA. COOL DRY AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA            
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOWS CONTINUE TO TREK NORTH INTO HUDSON BAY AND A              
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.                         
AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...THE                
RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE                  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD END PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THE            
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WILL START TO FILL. ANOTHER                
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL                
SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND               
SHOULD LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO                     
NORTHWEST WISCONISON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NAVIGATE ACROSS            
THE U.P. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPNAYING            
THE FRONT AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A RAIN SHOWERS                 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY AIR WILL FEED             
INTO THE WESTERN U.P. ON FRIDAY AND DIMINISH CHANCES OF SHOWERS.                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WATCH SAT/SAT EVNG                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IN RESPONSE             
TO CHANGING UPPER AIR FLOW.                                                     
IN THE SHORT TERM...BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION EARLY TONIGHT OVER             
CWA BEFORE AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVES            
ACROSS REGION. ETA/NGM/GFS/RUC CAPTURE ESSENCE OF UPPER SYSTEM WITH             
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH BUT LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIPITATION DICTATES            
ONLY CHANCY MENTION. BUFKIT AND THICKNESS PROGS HINT AT SMALL CHANCE            
OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE              
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.  FOR NOW WILL MENTION A MIXTURE OF               
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA. EXPECT A WINDY CHILLY DAY OVER CWA           
SATURDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD UNDER DECENT CYCLONIC                 
CIRCULATION FROM DEPARTING LOW TO THE EAST.                                     
IN THE FAR TERM...GFS/ETA/DGEX PROGS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF             
PRECIPITATION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS WILL USE BROAD BRUSH TO SHOW            
A WET AND SOMEWHAT WARMER PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK AS WIND            
FIELDS TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND PERSIST.                          
&&                                                                              
.MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi