FXUS04 KWBC 261018 PAA
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
616 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2003
 
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 27/1200 UTC THRU JUN 29/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...DAY 1..06Z UPDATE...LATEST ETA AND GFS WERE VRY CONSISTENT WITH
THEIR PREVIOUS PACKAGES ON THE MASS FIELDS AND QPFS. 
THEREFORE..ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY
1 QPF...

DAY1...

TONIGHTS MDLS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGRMT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
MLVL TROF DROPPING SEWD FMT HE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
GTLKS/OH VLY AND WITH THE ASOCTD CDFNT FCST TO SWING EWD TO
THE LOWER GTLKS/CNTRL APLCNS S-SWWD TO THE LOWER MS VLY.  AS
FOR QPF..THE MDLS WERE IN GOOD AGRMT WITH THE GNL OUTLN OF THE
PCPN SHIELD..BUT THE ETA WAS HVIER WITH THE AMTS OVR NRN TX ERLY
IN THE PD..WHICH MAY NOT BE TOO UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE ONGOING
CNVCTN OVR SRN OK AND NRN TX.  ONCE AGAIN..IT APRS THE GFS IS
HAVING SOME GRID SCALE FEEDBACK PROBS..SO FOLLOWED THE ETA
MORE CLSLY..WITH A SLANT TWD A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED
TO CNVCTN TO REFLECT THE INCREASINGLY STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT. 
GIVEN PWS ARE AOA 2 INCHES FM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD TO THE OH
VLY..FNTL CNVGNC IS QUITE STG WITH THE CDFNT AND UPR JET DYNAMICS
IS ENHANCING THE LIFT..FEEL WIDESPREAD MDT TO LCLY HVY RNFL WILL
DVLP ALG/AHD OF THE SFC FNT AS IT MVS THRU THE GTLKS/OH VLY RGNS
TO THE LOWER MS VLY/SRN TX THIS PD.  THE RAPID MVMT OF THE SFC FNT
SHUD HELP KEEP THE RNFL TOTALS DOWN SOME..ESP DURING THE 2ND
HALF OF THE FCST PD.   HVIEST RNFL TOTALS ARE XPCD OVR SERN TX AND
SRN LA..WHERE PWS SHUD REMAIN ABV 2 INCHES THRU THE PD.



DAY 2...

NO MAJOR DISAGRMNTS ACRS THE LOWER 48 DURG DAY 2 BETWEEN THE
ETA AND THE GFS.   THE STRONG UPR TROF PRESENTLY ACRS THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO SHEAR
NEWD INTO SERN CAN.     THE ASSOC FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
ACTIVE CONVECTION WISE AS IN PREV DAYS GIVEN THE OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND...BUT STILL MAY SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF PCPN
FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD THRU THE MID ATL...SERN U.S...AND INTO THE
CNTRL GULF COAST.   THERE IS A LOT OF DETAIL DIFFS WITH PCPN
POTENTIAL ALONG THIS FRONT DAY 2...WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF MAX QPF AMTS GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND AND
INCREASING MODEL DIVERGENCE WITH DETAILS.    THREE MAX AREAS FOR
PCPN DEPICTED ALONG THIS FRONT.  

ONE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST WHERE 2"+ PWS AREA FCST BY BOTH
THE ETA AND GFS TO BE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD SLOW DURG
DAY 2.   WENT CLOSER TO THE HEAVIER ETA QPF HERE WITH .50-1.5"+
AMTS DEPICTED ACRS SRN LA INTO SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE.

THE SECOND OVR CNTRL TO ERN NC AND FAR SERN VA WHERE THE ETA
AND NGM SHOW BNDRY LAYER CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZING FROM 1800-
0600 UTC.  HERE .25-.50"+ AMTS DEPICTED.

THE THIRD MAX AREA ALONG THE FRONT EXPECTED OVR NEW ENGLAND
WHERE DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO ALSO MAXIMIZE ARND 0000
UTC JUN 28.  THE ETA..GFS AND NGM ALL SHOW A MAX IN BNDRY LAYER
CONVERGENCE HERE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
LINE OF CONVECTION.  PCPN AMTS IN EXCESS OF .50" POSSIBLE WITH
THIS
LINE. 

NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY...

THE ETA AND GFS BOTH SHOW AN AREA OF FAST MOVG HT FALLS DIVING
SEWD FROM WRN CAN INTO THE NRN PLAINS UPR MS VALLEY DAY 2.  
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THESE HT FALLS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED IN THE
0000-1200 UTC TIME PERIOD ACRS THE ERN DAKOTAS...MN...FAR NRN IA
AND INTO WRN WI.  ATTM...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED QUICK MOVEMENT
OF ANY COMPLEX WL LIKELY KEEP PCPN AMTS FROM BEING HVY...WITH
.25-.50" AMTS DEPICTED ON THE DAY 2 PROG.  

DAY 3....

GTLKS....

HT FALLS MOVG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY DAY 2 ARE EXPECTED TO CONT
TO PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD INTO THE GTLKS REGION DURG DAY 3.  
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOC WITH THESE HT FALLS SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT ACRS THE LOWER LAKES.  STILL EXPECT ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE QUICKLY.   HOWEVER...MDT TO
LOCALLY HVY PCPN AMTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH .50-1"+ AMTS DEPICTED
ACRS THE SRN L.P. OF MI AND FAR NRN IN AND FAR NWRN OH.

CONVECTION ALSO LIKELY SWWD ALONG THE TRAILING CDFNT THRU THE
UPR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.  BOTH THE ETA AND GFS
ARE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE
SRN EDGE OF THE WLY OVR KS EARLY SUN MORNING.  THE GFS' MID LEVEL
VORT STRUCTURE SUGGESTS GRID SCALE CONVECTION PROBLEMS
HERE...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS NEARLY 5" BULLS EYE. 
HOWEVER...THIS IS A FAVORABLE PLACE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS.  DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME RANGE...KEPT PCPN AMTS OVR CNTRL TO
SWRN KS IN THE .50-1" RANGE.   

ERN GULF COAST/SERN U.S.....

THE SFC FRONT ACRS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURG DAY
3.  HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GULF SHOULD CONT TO SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION. 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH QPF DETAILS GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND THE
WEAKENING FRONT.  FOLLOWED ETA'S QPF AXIS MORE DAY 3 BUT KEPT
HEAVIEST AMTS CLOSER TO COAST INVOF ANY SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND NOT AS FAR INLAND AS THE ETA WAS DEPICTING.  

     
WOLF/ORAVEC

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 518915 537877 544823 540770 533729 507704 469728 424768 
      395791 382797 371808 366815 358827 351840 347846 344853 
      338862 335867 326878 322885 316887 310881 307878 304877 
      296877 290878 280890 278894 277898 277903 279919 280931 
      279938 278954 274967 273972 273978 273986 271005 270015 
      271025 279041 277048 277053 280069 282073 285075 291077 
      303070 310066 313068 316071 319072 325072 327070 330066 
      332059 335053 338051 338047 337039 338035 341034 346037 
      350039 354037 357030 357026 359022 359016 361011 360004 
      357997 352988 351982 352977 353971 354966 354960 358943 
      360938 364933 368925 373918 378913 384909 396899 407888 
      413881 416877 419875 424870 426868 433862 448863 460867 
      467870 469871 472875 474882 475889 474894 471896 469900 
      466903 464906 462907 457904 454900 450901 446904 445909 
      446917 447925 449930 449937 449950 448962 443970 438977 
      435984 437989 443994 448998 452999 457999 466998 471999 
      478006 483012 494024 502031 506033 511031 515024 519015 
      518006 513000 510997 508993 510984 513972 513960 512945 
      513937 518915 
 0.01 533210 534197 535185 534174 531165 526150 524143 522136 
      524130 525122 525112 522102 519096 515089 509083 504080 
      497081 483076 471069 467069 464071 463077 464083 469098 
      472105 476111 480118 481125 481136 483147 486155 489161 
      497175 504187 512201 521212 525217 529219 533210 
 0.01 297819 294814 290809 287805 282802 275798 271793 267791 
      261791 256793 252793 249796 246798 244804 247810 249814 
      252817 260824 270829 280832 291830 294829 295827 297822 
      297819 
 0.25 526839 522835 521836 519840 516841 511844 508848 506853 
      504868 502881 500885 499889 499894 502902 506903 511901 
      514897 518884 521871 523865 524859 525853 526843 526839 
 0.25 477751 471750 463757 457760 452764 441773 435776 429780 
      412794 399808 386825 382829 377830 374829 369833 364839 
      360846 351861 340877 330893 325900 320904 316904 313902 
      308895 302887 297886 291889 289891 287895 284905 285912 
      286924 286935 285944 283954 282965 283973 284983 283992 
      281000 278008 278015 287031 291041 293043 299044 307042 
      310039 311036 312026 314023 318021 326015 330013 336013 
      340011 341005 338994 337984 339975 345958 351938 355929 
      360921 370908 379893 383889 388886 397881 422854 429847 
      434840 448822 458803 461798 463793 466785 470776 473767 
      476756 477751 
 0.25 279810 277808 274805 271804 267802 262801 259801 254804 
      253808 256811 259813 263814 267815 272815 277813 279810 
 0.50 456791 454788 451789 449792 447795 444797 444798 442800 
      439802 437804 436806 438809 440806 443805 446803 448801 
      451799 451798 453795 455792 456791 
 0.50 404858 418845 419832 414825 422814 428802 423797 416803 
      406812 397827 388835 378845 366856 351876 338897 340901 
      339904 338910 335915 332917 329917 324916 321914 315909 
      309904 304898 300893 296892 293893 290896 288901 288912 
      289920 290927 290934 287949 286957 286968 289978 290984 
      289988 285004 283009 283013 288018 293022 295028 295034 
      297037 300035 303031 304026 302019 297012 296005 299996 
      305981 307977 310976 312976 313981 313988 310997 307999 
      307005 308008 310011 312013 317014 323010 330006 333003 
      334997 333991 333983 336974 340965 344950 350933 354924 
      359916 370902 378888 382881 384876 387873 395866 404858 
 1.00 375875 374869 372874 368872 364875 358881 353890 346906 
      339925 335933 332942 330964 332967 335966 338961 339956 
      343938 344931 345927 350919 353915 356911 360909 363905 
      368899 371895 371888 374880 375875 
 1.00 327995 328992 328988 327985 326983 323984 322986 320988 
      320989 318993 318994 318996 317000 317003 319005 322004 
      324002 327998 327995 
 1.00 313941 313937 311934 309929 309915 305911 301908 296908 
      293911 292918 294925 294933 293938 290948 290957 291964 
      295968 301966 304962 305955 307950 310946 313941 
 1.50 338951 339945 337945 335950 336953 336954 338951 
 1.50 298957 298953 297952 296954 295957 294957 295958 298959 
      298957  
 
24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 447758 486729 511686 502641 484628 456638 423673 383718 
      343752 335762 326781 320792 315802 302821 297830 295837 
      291848 288858 284867 280878 275889 271899 268910 267919 
      267924 268931 266943 262954 258964 255970 253975 251985 
      252991 254995 258002 262005 266007 272016 275020 279023 
      285025 290025 295024 299020 302014 303007 303001 302997 
      300985 302975 304969 307965 329921 337905 341897 348886 
      370842 378824 390804 408785 415780 420775 435766 447758 
 0.01 511816 509813 505813 493820 486822 484822 483817 487805 
      490793 491786 490784 486784 483785 476790 463799 453805 
      447807 445805 446803 449791 449785 448780 444776 438776 
      434779 426789 410807 406812 404817 402827 401834 401838 
      403839 410837 416833 421834 420838 419844 417851 412862 
      407874 404884 402893 406896 410895 415892 421891 424894 
      424899 425915 427918 429918 433917 434915 440902 442899 
      447895 456891 466892 472892 476891 479888 484881 492871 
      498861 505849 508841 511831 512822 511816 
 0.01 426961 435976 437996 455050 471095 482119 495117 509102 
      509056 489012 495998 508994 520994 530978 529947 520929 
      489915 479914 465912 459913 454915 447919 442921 429925 
      422928 417932 416936 416940 418947 424958 426961 
 0.01 354047 355035 353031 352029 346030 338031 332033 329035 
      321039 317042 313044 310046 305047 296045 292045 290049 
      288059 284067 283072 283078 286084 293091 299094 310094 
      317094 324094 329092 335089 341081 345073 349061 354047 
 0.01 284811 283807 281804 276802 264797 258796 254798 252800 
      250797 247795 245794 240798 238805 235816 236823 240831 
      243835 247833 248831 250825 251821 252817 260821 265822 
      273820 277820 280817 284811 
 0.25 437738 482709 498685 495662 484651 471650 457658 443672 
      435678 431683 427689 424697 422709 420720 422733 422737 
      423740 429741 433739 437738 
 0.25 495950 495946 493941 489938 485935 478932 467931 455930 
      441931 434933 430938 427944 427948 429952 431957 436962 
      448962 460959 473954 480953 485953 492952 495950 
 0.25 468987 468983 467980 464979 461979 460980 458982 458984 
      459988 460992 462996 462997 465997 466996 467991 468990 
      468987 
 0.25 359810 379779 380765 382754 376748 368749 358752 348762 
      346768 340780 336795 336802 338807 341811 346812 352817 
      355816 359810 
 0.25 331886 331877 327869 324868 322866 321861 320855 317847 
      315846 311845 304847 299852 294861 288873 283885 280900 
      279912 278929 276943 273958 272963 273972 275979 279981 
      283980 287976 289969 292963 296957 302947 308935 314923 
      321910 326899 331886 
 0.50 448722 474702 485686 486674 478661 471660 461668 452675 
      449680 442686 433697 431701 429710 428716 428724 433728 
      438727 444724 448722 
 0.50 345782 344795 349803 357801 364791 371777 374769 374764 
      372758 369756 363756 360757 354764 350772 346780 345782 
 0.50 320886 319880 317874 315860 313855 310852 306851 303852 
      300855 296860 292869 286886 284894 284905 283914 282925 
      281933 280938 281944 282947 287949 292946 295943 300937 
      305929 312911 318895 320889 320886 
 1.00 312864 310858 305857 301859 295870 293876 291884 288898 
      287912 287920 287925 289930 293928 298922 303910 308899 
      308890 309882 312868 312864 
 1.50 309865 308862 305861 302864 301868 298872 295878 293884 
      291890 290899 291907 293909 297906 300901 302898 302894 
      302887 304880 308873 309866 309865  
 
24HR QP VT 29/12Z
 0.01 482663 480655 475649 468645 460642 455642 451641 446641 
      443642 438645 434651 434656 437663 441669 443672 451675 
      461675 465677 468675 471675 474673 479670 482663 
 0.01 465716 474707 479692 476685 468684 461688 452694 446704 
      439713 436719 434724 435727 439730 442731 446730 451727 
      456723 465716 
 0.01 506887 502878 495869 489856 487848 484840 480824 475811 
      467797 461784 455776 448769 439767 431771 428773 426777 
      422780 418785 414789 412794 408806 408812 406818 403840 
      400866 396891 393902 390912 383931 377953 372964 367975 
      355992 344004 337011 328017 314028 306035 303038 296040 
      282047 278050 277054 277060 280065 286071 292077 296079 
      303080 309081 316079 323077 332075 341070 350065 357056 
      364050 376049 383049 389049 397052 404057 412061 420062 
      427061 430058 431052 430044 428039 425034 421029 412022 
      407017 403012 401009 401000 401992 406981 410971 414961 
      417950 421944 425941 431936 443933 449932 453933 461932 
      467931 472931 476934 484940 493946 498948 502948 505946 
      506940 506933 504914 506887 
 0.01 364759 362752 359746 355742 353741 349743 346746 343752 
      337763 333768 328771 322781 317791 311802 310807 307810 
      302809 298806