WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GAEL) WARNING NR 013
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z --- NEAR 24.2S 53.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 53.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 27.0S 54.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 29.7S 56.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 31.8S 58.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GAEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS INITIATED A
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE STILL EXHIBITED A 16 NM
DIAMETER EYE IN RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGEREY. TC 13S IS
ACCELERATING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER, AND THE
INTRODUCTION OF A MIDLATITUDE AIRMASS BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
INDUCE THE FIRST STAGE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24, AND
THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
THE TC 13S TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH AS IT COMPLETES THIS
TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FREDDY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//