PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
3 PM EST TUES FEB 4 2003 

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - FEB 14 2003
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MODEL COMPARISONS:  AGAIN TODAY THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE 500 HPA PATTERN FOR THE
FIRST FIVE DAYS.  FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THE MEAN 500 HPA PATTERNS FROM THE
0Z...6Z...12Z AND 18Z GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...THE ECMWF...AND DAVA ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...
BUT THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP AMONG THE MODELS.
THE GENERAL PATTERN BEING FORECAST HAS A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA
RUNNING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH ALASKA AND BEING UNDERCUT BY A STRONG SOUTHERN
STREAM...THE MAIN LOBE OF THE ARCTIC VORTEX CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF HUDSON
BAY AND A MEAN TROUGH AND GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH
MOST HAVING SOME SORT OF CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST BUT THE DAVA AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING FLAT OPEN TROUGHS AS WOULD BE EXPECTED.  THE CONUS
IS DOMINATED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IN MOST SOLUTIONS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BUT THE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE WHERE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AMONG
SOLUTIONS ARE MOST NOTICEABLE.  THE ECMWF CONNECTS A BAND OF POSITIVE ANOMALIES
FROM THE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA TO POSITIVE ANOMALIES
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.  THE 0Z GFS SOLUTION HEADED THIS DIRECTION BUT WAS
NOT QUITE ABLE TO CONNECT THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WHILE THE LASTEST GFS RUN...
FROM 6Z... DOES CONNECT THEM ACROSS.  THIS MAY BE THE EARLY SIGNS OF A GENERAL
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WHICH WOULD ACCOMPANY A RETURN TO
A MORE EL NINO-LIKE FLOW REGIME.  TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTERS WEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER
NEAR HUDSON BAY ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THE FORECAST PATTERN...BUT
THE TELECONNECTION GIVE NO STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL IN THE AREAS
WHERE THE ANOMALY FIELDS DISAGREE.

THE DAILY MRF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
DAY 10.  THE SPREAD IS VERY LOW COMPARED TO USUAL OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH BY DAY 10 THE SPREAD IS INCREASING THERE.  THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DETAILS OF THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED UNDERCUTTING OFF THE WEST COAST EVEN
ON DAY 6...BUT THE OVERALL IDEA OF A REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OFF THE WEST
COAST IS QUITE LIKELY GIVEN THE ENSEMBLES.

THE TOOLS GENERALLY LOOK TOO WET IN ALASKA BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS WITH
HEIGHT PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THAT WHICH IS FORECAST TODAY...SO THE OUTLOOK FOR
ALASKA WAS MODIFIED TO BE DRIER THAN THE TOOLS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE TODAY...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5.

THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD USES 40 PERCENT
OF THE ECMWF MODEL CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...
AND 10 PERCENT OF THE DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF

THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA PROG...MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE...AND
ANALOGS ON THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND AND INDIVIDUAL MODELS.
 
THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATION FROM THE 500
HPA HEIGHT BLEND...ANALOGS ON INDIVIDUAL MODELS...ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION
FROM THE GFS RUNS...AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
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8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 18 2003

MODEL COMPARISONS:  THE DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS THAT BEGAN TO SHOW UP FOR THE
6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD ARE AMPLIFIED FOR WEEK 2...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
12Z AND 18Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS MAINTAINING MORE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE CONUS...LIKE YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE 0Z GFS TRIES BUT FAILS
TO BRIDGE POSITIVE ANOMALIES FROM A POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA TO POSITIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  THE 6Z GFS...WHICH
CAN NOT YET BE INCLUDED IN THE 500 HPA BLEND...AND THE DAVA SUCCEED IN MAKING
THIS CONNECTION OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.  GIVEN THE RECENT GFS MODEL
BIASES...THE INDICATIONS FROM SOME MODELS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD...AND THE
LATEST GFS RUN FROM 6Z...THE DAVA IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND HAS BEEN GIVEN THE
HIGHEST WEIGHT IN THE BLEND.  THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT
FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEEK 2 PERIOD AS COMPARED TO THE 6 TO 10
DAY PROG...MAINLY SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN AND OVERALL HEIGHT RISES.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEK 2 FORECAST IS ABOUT AVERAGE...3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5.

THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD USES 15 PERCENT
OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY
11...15 PERCENT OF THE ECMWF 5 DAY MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 20 PERCENT OF
THE MOST RECENT 7 DAY OBSERVED MEAN 500 HPA PATTERN.

THE TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NETWORK AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 500 HPA FORECAST...AND ANALOGS FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS.  A LARGER THAN USUAL COVERAGE OF NEAR NORMAL IS FORECAST...WHICH IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TOOLS AND GENERAL MODERATION OF THE HEIGHT PATTERN.
HOWEVER SUCH A LARGE COVERAGE OF NEAR NORMAL OFTEN TURNS OUT TO BE A LOW
SKILL FORECAST.

THE PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
500 HPA BLEND...ANALOGS AND ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS RUNS...
AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS.  AS OFTEN IS THE CASE...THE
ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS RUNS WAS WETTER THAN THE OTHER TOOLS.

FORECASTER: R. MARTIN
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NOTES: 

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE - FORECASTS
INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES 
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPI-
TATION.

THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP-
ITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE
TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE
...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. 

EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS SWITCHED TO
1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA 
HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.  THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS
HAVE REPLACED THE 1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS.
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GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:------------------------------------------------------

AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS THE HEIGHT 
OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE 
TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED.

ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER WEATHER MAP -
USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD.  THE
CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE
MAPS.  TWO MAPS WILL JUST BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A
PATTERN CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%.  TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH 
HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE.  ANALOGS ARE 
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION BEING STUDIED INCREASES 
IN SIZE.  PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - 
FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES.  THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO 
NOT WORK VERY WELL.

ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE AT A GIVEN
PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE AT THAT PLACE AND
TIME OF YEAR.

AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND 
THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT 
MIDDLE LATITUDES.  THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE 
VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.  THE AO CAN ALSO BE 
CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS 
POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL.  THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED 
TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC 
BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID-LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR 
THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN. 

AVN - THE RUN OF THE MRF MODEL INITIATED AT 12 UTC (AS OF 07/2002 THE NAME
FOR ALL RUNS OF THE NCEP GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL).

BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500 HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM SEVERAL MODELS. 
WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE FORECASTER.  THE SUM OF THE
WEIGHTS MUST BE 1.  WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500 HPA MAP BY ITS
WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500 
HPA FORECAST.

CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES.

DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL.  THIS IS A BAROTROPIC MODEL
WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A 
STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL.  REFERENCE:  QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 
1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS OF AN NWP MODEL.  MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - 
PP 277-287.

EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO.

ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION.

FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500 HPA CONTOURS - THE WIND
TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON THE LEFT - IN THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.  WIND 
SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS.

GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM.  THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RUN 
AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS THE MRF AND AVN MODELS. 
THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS THE ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS FORECASTS.

500 HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL - WHICH ABOUT 
HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW - AS MEASURED BY THE
PRESSURE.  UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
WINDS AT 500 HPA.  500-HPA SYSTEMS CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER.

HPA - HECTO-PASCALS.  1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR.

LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO.

MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE NORTHWARD
AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW.

MODEL BIAS  - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OBSERVED 
CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED CLIMO.

MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED 
TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT 
IN THE BLEND.  NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR 8-14 DAYS.

MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING AUTOMATICALLY 
FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE SPECIFICATION METHOD.  IT IS
VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. 

MRF - MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODEL (AS OF 07/2002 RENAMED THE AVN)

MRF ENSEMBLE - A SET OF MRF (AVN) FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME
TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS.  THERE ARE CUR-
RENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE MRF (AVN) ENSEMBLE.  THE AVERAGE OF THESE IS THE
MRF (AVN) ENSEMBLE MEAN.

MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLA-
TION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT MOVES SLOWLY 
EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION.

NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN.  IT CAN ALSO BE 
VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION 
PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH 
AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN 
LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE 
OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL 
OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE 
AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE 
REVERSE ANOMALIES.

PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN.

PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST.

RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHT.

SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF THE 500
HPA FIELD.

SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-
ERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL 
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION.  KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNEC-
TIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS.
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TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT 
AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN TIME OF YEAR. 
WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM 1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF
YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT.

TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500 HPA HEIGHT. 

UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT).

WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST.

EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST.

NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH

SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500 HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST DIRECTION
PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST FLOW.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON THURSDAY 
FEBRUARY 20 2003.
 
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   N    N     
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    N     
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     B    N     
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    N     
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    N     
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    N    A     
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     N    A     
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N     
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   B    B     
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    B    B     
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B     
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    B    N     
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B     
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B     
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    N     
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    N    N     
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    A     
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B     
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B     
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    B     

8 to 14 day Outlook Table
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   N    A     
SRN CALIF   N    A     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    N     
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    B     
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    N     
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    B     
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N     
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A     
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    N    N     
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    B     
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    B     
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    N     
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    B    B     
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B     
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B     
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  N    N     
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    N    N     
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    N     
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  N    B     
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B     
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    B     

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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