AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF MILLET
                            Executive Summary


Millet is a small-seeded annual crop grown for grain and forage. 
"Pearl millet" is an important food crop in Africa.  In contrast,
the grain millet grown in the United States is primarily "proso
millet," and it is used mainly for birdseed.  A small amount of
grain millet, reportedly 10-15 percent, is used as a mushroom-
growing medium in California.  Some millet is also used for
human-edible consumption in products such as multi-grain breads
and breakfast cereals.  Millet can also be harvested as a hay
crop in the Great Plains.  

The U.S. generally exports 15-20 percent of its annual millet
production, to over 70 countries.  The top four export markets
for U.S. proso millet are the Netherlands, Canada, Japan, and the
United Kingdom.  Argentina is a major U.S. competitor.

The 1987 Census of Agriculture reported 2,573 farms growing
291,845 acres of proso millet in the U.S, yielding 8,182,568
bushels of grain.  Ninety-six percent of the U.S. millet acreage,
and 97 percent of the production, were located in North Dakota,
South Dakota, Nebraska, and Colorado.  The average value of the
U.S. crop is estimated to be in the range of $15-$20 million
dollars.

Millet in the Great Plains is planted in the spring (usually
during June) and harvested in the fall.  It is grown in rotation
with wheat, using the same tillage, planting, and harvesting
equipment that farmers use for wheat.  Farmers can plant millet
as a fill-in (or "catch") crop on land to which their winter
wheat crop, for one reason or another, was a failure. 
Reportedly, millet leaves the soil loose and relatively free of
weeds, and provides a good residue cover.

Harvesting millet involves cutting and windrowing the plant for a
period of additional drying.  Then, the millet is picked up with
a combine and thrashed.

Great variability exists in millet prices from year to year. 
Reportedly, 80 percent of millet sales occur at between 4 and 5
cents a pound.  During market gluts, however, prices can fall to
as low as 3 cents a pound, and seldom exceed 10 cents.  During
early 1994, however, prices approached 20 cents a pound in
reaction to increased demand and several years of declining
production.  

Millet can be stored for up to several years.  Some farmers grow
millet every year as part of their farm rotations, and sell only
when market prices reach or exceed their reservation (minimum
selling) price.

Millet can be substituted for corn in some livestock feeds, but
its price needs to fall to 2- to 3-cents a pound to economically
compete with corn.  Market prices generally do not fall this low.

The most significant production perils are hail, drought, wind,
early freeze, and heavy rains.  Other lesser problems include
grasshoppers and onion thrips.  Millet is fairly disease
resistant.  

Ad hoc disaster assistance data indicate $11.3 million in
payments for millet yield losses over the 1988-93 period.  Over
the six year period, South Dakota received $5.6 million, North
Dakota $2.2 million, Colorado $1.4 million, and Nebraska $1.2
million.  South Dakota accounted for about 26 percent of U.S.
harvested millet acreage in 1987, and collected about 51 percent
of ad hoc payments between 1988 and 1993.  In contrast, Colorado
accounted for 31 percent of U.S. millet area, but only 12 percent
of ad hoc payments.  

Moral hazard problems could arise during seasons of low market
prices.  A second insurance issue is timeliness of planting. 
Early to mid-June is the optimum time for planting in most areas. 
Planting later than this date increases the chances of yield loss
due to an early fall freeze.