Note: This draft is meant to promote discussion on US SOLAS rather than
a definitive plan. It was produced by Rik Wanninkhof, last revised
2/20/00. Comment can be addressed to any of the US SOLAS committee
members listed below.

Prospectus

**[The United States efforts in the Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study
(US SOLAS)]{.underline}**

**[Summary]{.underline}**

[The US component of the Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study (US SOLAS)
plans to study the controls and feedbacks of cycles of climate relevant
compounds (CRCs) in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere. A
process-oriented program is proposed that spans the air-sea interface
rather than using it as a programmatic boundary. The program is geared
to innovative research, or \"high returns\" efforts addressing specific
hypotheses. US SOLAS will focus on studying the controls on mechanisms
by natural and deliberate perturbations. Since many of the processes
exert an interdependent control on the substances of interest, a strong
multi-disciplinary approach is advocated. Key biogeochemical cycles of
particular interest are those of carbon, water, sulfur, and nitrogen.
These cycles either directly or indirectly influence the earth\'s
climate and changes of the dynamics in the upper ocean and lower
atmosphere can have a significant influence on future climate trends.
Approaches will include field studies, modeling studies on different
scales, and paleo-climate studies. The program implementation is
envisioned as working groups taking charge of studies of intermediate
size focusing on issues of relevance to SOLAS rather than a top down
approach. The studies will contribute to answering the broader
scientific questions relating to changes in the dynamic forcing
affecting the cycles of CRCs and feedbacks in the earth system when
perturbed by global change. US SOLAS anticipates a major role in
quantification of air-sea CO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[ fluxes in
order to estimate CO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[ update by the ocean
on seasonal timescales as part of the US Carbon Cycle Science Plan.
]{.underline}

**[Preamble]{.underline}**

[In the past decade rapid advances have been made in our understanding
of physical and biogeochemical controls on climate and CRCs. Programs
such as JGOFS and IGAC have provided new insights into the
biogeochemical and physical interactions in the upper ocean and lower
atmosphere. However, the lack of close collaborations between the
predominantly oceanic effort (JGOFS) and atmospheric studies (IGAC/ACE)
have impaired a comprehensive approach of study in this region. SOLAS
hopes to stimulate scientific and programmatic interaction in this area.
The air/sea boundary layer region exerts fundamental controls on
biological and chemical cycling that have a direct influence on CRCs.
These include processes such as deposition and transformation of aeolian
input, notably iron, which controls biological productivity in High
Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) regions; oceanic emission of
dimethylsulfide (DMS) that can act as a precursor of cloud condensation
nuclei in remote marine environments; and the ability of nitrogen fixing
organisms to supply new nitrogen to the surface ocean thus enhancing the
biological pump in parts of the ocean. These recent insights have
fundamentally changed our way of thinking about controls on upper ocean
biogeochemistry, the influence of atmospheric processes on these
controls, and, in turn, the influence of the processes on climate and
the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. Large knowledge gaps on the
processes surface ocean -lower atmosphere (SOLA) region remain,
particularly in the area of climate feedbacks and the response of the
chemistry, biology, and physics in the boundary layers.]{.underline}

[Field studies and paleo-climate studies over the past several decades
emphasized that an effective way to study processes is to determine
response of the system to perturbations. Natural perturbations such as
the seasonal progression have improved our understanding of spring
blooms. Storms were shown to have an important effect on nutrient
supply, sea salt/spray emissions, and dust deposition. Eddies in the
upper ocean were shown to have an important effect on productivity. The
response of climate to longer scale perturbations has been studied in
increasing detail from retrospective analysis and paleo-climate
indicators. The first deliberate manipulation experiments showed that
perturbations could be invoked \"at will\" thus offering a unique and
definitive way to perform hypothesis driven research.]{.underline}

[The last several decades have also offered increased evidence of man\'s
influence on the natural environment along with indications of direct
perturbations on the earth\'s climate. A prime example are fossil fuel
emissions, which started in the mid-eighteenth century. The resulting
increased atmospheric CO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[ burden appears
to be warming the earth\'s surface. However, increased aerosol emissions
by burning of fossil fuels have been suggested as a mechanism for
localized cooling. This evidence of man-induced perturbations, which
obviously have a direct effect on our lives, remains controversial and
systematic investigations on controls and feedbacks of climate change
are necessary to improve models and ultimately guide policy
decisions.]{.underline}

[The combination of increased awareness of the importance of the region
encompassing the surface ocean and lower atmosphere on several CRCs, the
appreciation that natural and manmade perturbations are a powerful way
to improve our mechanistic understanding of the system, and the acute
need to properly incorporate this understanding into prognostic models,
precipitated the plans for a new study: the Surface Ocean Lower
Atmosphere Study (SOLAS). US SOLAS is part of the international effort
that started with a planning meeting in January 1997 in London. The
resulting IGAC newsletter report authored by Prof. Watson of UEA states
as overall goal for the effort:]{.underline}

[\"To address key interactions among the marine biogeochemical system,
the atmosphere and climate, and how this system affects and is affected
by past and future climate and environmental changes.\" ]{.underline}

[These goals will be attained by:]{.underline}

[ Formulating and testing hypotheses about these key
interactions]{.underline}

[ Quantifying the cause and effect in these interactions,
and]{.underline}

[ Incorporating this new understanding into models]{.underline}

[At the initial meeting five hypotheses were brought forth as examples
of the scope of the program:]{.underline}

[ Marine sulphur emissions have a substantial effect on climate by
influencing cloud albedo.]{.underline}

[ Atmospherically derived iron stimulates diatom and other phytoplankton
growth in \"high nitrate low chlorophyll\" (HNLC) regions of the ocean,
and this may exert significant feedback effects on climate.]{.underline}

[ Changing patterns of atmospheric nitrogen deposition consequent of
increasing industrialization will significantly influence the marine
biota in some parts of the ocean.]{.underline}

[ The influence of changes in marine biogeochemistry on ocean uptake of
anthropogenic CO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[ in the next century will
be small.]{.underline}

[ The principal effect on marine production in a warmer world would be a
decrease in global productivity, consequent on a slowing of the
thermohaline circulation.]{.underline}

[The importance of building on to what has been learned in previous
programs was recognized at the initial meeting. US SOLAS plans to
develop specific national science plans based on these general themes
since the goals of the SOLAS program are broad and some of the
hypotheses have been addressed or refuted through modeling and
observational work in the past three years. ]{.underline}

[Both the proposed methods and the proposed interactions between groups
who have historically not worked closely together create challenges in
execution of the program. The US SOLAS planning group recognizes these
issues and through judicial choice of membership and community input
hopes to establish new working partnerships amongst disciplines, much
like the interactions between the marine chemical and biological
community facilitated through JGOFS. US SOLAS also will work closely
with other planning efforts such as EDOCC and OCTET to provide a
synergistic plan and joint efforts to address problems of high priority.
]{.underline}

**[Scientific Questions]{.underline}**

[At the first US SOLAS planning meeting in San Francisco in December
1999 several general science questions were proposed to guide the
overall planning of the program. They are closely aligned with the
questions posed by the international SOLAS community and they will be
fine-tuned and adapted as planning and implementation progresses. The
questions can be roughly divided amongst two general
themes.]{.underline}

[I. The effect of changes in physical forcing on biogeochemical cycles
in upper ocean and lower atmosphere.]{.underline}

[ Can we improve quantification of air-sea fluxes and transport
processes into the surface ocean boundary layer (SOBL) and lower
atmospheric boundary layer (LABL) such that biogeochemical
transformations can be determined quantitatively from mass balances in
the region?]{.underline}

[ What is the ocean biological contribution to cloud condensation
nuclei?]{.underline}

[ How do changes in surface forcing affect production and emission of
trace]{.underline}

[gases and seasalt particles?]{.underline}

[ Are changes in oceanic emissions affecting the oxidizing efficiency of
the lower atmosphere?]{.underline}

[II. Study of the nitrogen cycle and its effect on
CO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[ uptake and release of biogenic
gases.]{.underline}

[ Is the oceanic nitrogen cycle in steady state?]{.underline}

[ What is the impact of fertilization processes on emissions of biogenic
gases such as DMS, halocarbons, hydrocarbons and
N]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[O, and uptake up
CO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[?]{.underline}

**[The Scope of US SOLAS]{.underline}**

[With the development of new programs there is a strong impetus to make
the objectives broad to satisfy a large constituency. This can lead to
problems in implementation with objectives becoming too diffuse to
address specific questions. Thus far the SOLAS planning revolves around
a general concept that will have to be fine-tuned to create a coherent
and doable program at national level. It should also dovetail into other
\[planning\] efforts at national and international levels. The program
should start out addressing tractable and provocative issues as outlined
above for which we can make meaningful advances in process studies of
finite duration. The research questions will likely satisfy two tenets.
First, the program will fundamentally address the climate implications
of changes in the relevant biogeochemical cycles. Second, the studies
will take advantage of perturbation approaches to study processes. As
general guidelines for the initial development US SOLAS
should:]{.underline}

[ Study CRCs for which the upper ocean plays a significant ]{.underline}

[ role.]{.underline}

[ Follow a hypothesis based scientific approach.]{.underline}

[ Limit its study region to the atmospheric marine boundary layer and
euphotic zone.]{.underline}

[ Be a true interdisciplinary project engaging researchers from
different disciplines.]{.underline}

[ Provide critical information and boundary conditions for other efforts
and for models predicting ]{.underline}

[ future atmospheric levels of CRCs. ]{.underline}

[ US SOLAS should focus on a critical boundary region for CRCs: the
marine boundary layer comprised of the upper ocean and lower atmosphere.
Although this region cannot be studied in isolation it is envisioned
that other programs will provide the fluxes and concentrations of the
compounds of interest at the boundaries of the SOLAS study domain.
Through close inter-program interaction these \" fuzzy boundaries\"
should be dealt with in a seamless fashion. US SOLAS should focus on
gaining a comprehensive understanding of the processes controlling
inventories and fluxes of the species of interest. Based on recent
studies this means that conventional paradigms about C, S, N and
H]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[O cycling will be challenged.
]{.underline}

[The standard method of scientific inquiry will be followed in which the
hypotheses will be formulated tested, and updated with aid of diagnostic
models, historical observations and remote sensing observations. In
advance of field studies diagnostic models will be run using
climatological data or data obtained from specific field campaigns. The
range of probable perturbation functions utilizing climatology and/or
remotely sensed observations will be applied to the models to estimate
the response of the natural system. The results of the field studies in
turn will be analyzed in this framework. Likely differences will be
investigated by updating models input functions based on observations
that ultimately will lead to better parameterizations of prognostic
modeling efforts.]{.underline}

[A reasonable approach for mechanistic studies is to concentrate on
specific geographic regions. By containing the temporal and spatial
scale of the program the benefits of the multidisciplinary nature of the
effort can be best illustrated. The geographic regional focus is much
like the JGOFS process study effort with some important differences. The
studies will focus on the response of the system of interest to
perturbations and thus should be of sufficient scope to assure that the
cause-and-effect is clearly illustrated and avoid ambiguous
interpretation. For natural perturbation this means that several
perturbation cycles should be investigated. For the seasonal cycle this
would necessitate studies of several years duration. For deliberate
perturbations the \"forcing\" and study of response should be long
enough for the chemical and biological system to reach a new steady
state. ]{.underline}

[A challenge for US SOLAS is to engage investigators from different
disciplines such that the system can be studied comprehensively. The
physical, biological, and chemical interactions controlling the levels
of CRCs are often closely related and a systems approach is necessary.
In particular, new interactions must be forged between experts in
boundary layer physics and meteorology, atmospheric and marine chemists
and biologists, and modelers studying processes on different scales.
Some of these partnerships have been forged in previous programs,
others, in particular those relating to boundary layer interactions,
have to be initiated in the program both at scientific and programmatic
levels. ]{.underline}

[An important goal for US SOLAS will be to offer the appropriate
observational constraints and mechanistic input to improve global
forecast models of climate relevant species. This will require a
hierarchy of smaller scale process models to depict the trends of the
perturbation studies properly. Conversely, large-scale models will also
be used to guide the research efforts and point to particular gaps in
our knowledge that will hamper prediction of the future.]{.underline}

**[Interaction with other Programs]{.underline}**

[By nature of the region of interest, the air-water boundary region, and
because of its focus of determining the response of the biogeochemical
system to \[climate\] perturbations it is imperative that US SOLAS
forges close ties with other programs. Of direct relevance are GOOS,
CLIVAR, CCSP, IGAC/ACE, EDOCC, and OCTET. The new efforts can be roughly
divided as programs focusing on improving our mechanistic understanding
of the relevant processes, and programs engaged in systematic
observations of our current earth system and detection of changes
therein. US SOLAS is primarily a process-oriented effort and close
collaboration and interactions with programs of similar design are
anticipated. Results from US SOLAS would be used in the observation
based programs as boundary conditions for, amongst other things,
prognostic modeling. The observational programs and accompanying global
and regional models would in turn provide insights as to which oceanic
regions exert or experience significant effects on climate change.
]{.underline}

[ It is envisioned that the process-oriented programs would collaborate
in several areas. The process studies in US SOLAS would be closely
linked to efforts in for instance, OCTET and EDOCC, where the latter
programs would focus on cycling and ecological changes in the water
column while SOLAS effort would be geared to transfer between the ocean
and atmosphere and projecting its effect on climate. In modeling and
paleoclimate efforts the SOLAS efforts would focus on climate
implications of changing atmospheric composition and fluxes while the
OCTET studies likely concentrate on the oceanic manifestation and
responses. In actual execution of programs it is envisioned that a
\"code share arrangement\" of joint multi-agency announcements with
general guidelines on partitioning of efforts would apply. An unique
aspect of US SOLAS is that it does not concentrate solely on inventories
and transformations of the compound of interest but rather takes broader
systems approach. ]{.underline}

[The large-scale observational programs such as proposed under GOOS and
CLIVAR and COAG will provide large-scale fields to extrapolate our
results to large regions. An illustrative example is how US SOLAS hopes
to contribute to the goals of the US Carbon Cycle Science Plan (CCSP) in
an interactive fashion with other efforts. The overall goal of the CCSP
is to determine where the anthropogenically produced carbon has been
stored in the past and where it will be stored in the future. This
objective requires quantification of inventories of carbon in the land
biosphere and in the ocean over decadal time scales, and terrestrial
uptake and air-sea CO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[ fluxes on seasonal
time scales. To determine the global air-sea fluxes we must understand
the controls on the gas transfer and surface water
pCO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[ utilizing process studies and
diagnostic modeling. The processes have to be related to hydrographic,
hydrodynamic, and biological forcing which in turn should be related
commonly measured parameters, particularly remotely sensed parameters
that can be obtained globally over short time scales, such as SST,
color, surface roughness, and wind speed. In this manner we can
parameterize the air-sea CO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[ fluxes with
environmental forcing. The studies in US SOLAS would provide the
mechanistic information on gas transfer and controls on surface water
pCO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[, while program being developed in the
COAG in conjunction with CCSP would provide the global
pCO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[ fields, including global information
about forcing from, for instance, remote sensing. By combining the
information from the proposed efforts with prognostic modeling,
realistic flux estimates can be made to forecast future atmospheric
CO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[ levels. ]{.underline}

**[US SOLAS Organizational Structure]{.underline}**

[The implementation is envisioned to occur by small working groups of
investigators who would take charge of the issue. International
collaborations would be encouraged. The principal role of the US SOLAS
committee would be to facilitate the efforts.]{.underline}

[Implementation of scientific programs is often most efficient in a
tightly structured top down approach. This is particularly advantageous
for mission oriented projects with a clearly defined overall objectives.
US SOLAS will be more of an exploratory program focusing on a variety of
climate relevant processes and as such can benefit from a more
participatory program management. Overall science planning will be
closely coordinated with the international SOLAS effort to facilitate
international collaborations on projects of mutual and global interest.
]{.underline}

[Because of the current thought for US SOLAS to focus on medium scale
multidisciplinary studies, the implementation is well suited to take
place by smaller groups of investigators. The US SOLAS committee will
facilitate inter-agency participation of the projects, and address gaps
in overall scientific plans. Planning and execution of such medium scale
interdisciplinary studies currently occurs in an ad hoc fashion often
retarding speedy execution and sometimes excluding important or logical
components for a variety of reasons. This is particularly true in
studies such as proposed in SOLAS that involve different research
communities. ]{.underline}

**[Epilogue]{.underline}**

[US SOLAS is a program geared to studying processes and feedbacks
controlling climate relevant species in the ocean and lower atmosphere.
Its focus will be on integrated studies to investigate key mechanisms
controlling the abundance of the species. A systems approach will be
followed in which the overall impact of changes and perturbations of the
cycles will be studied in unison rather than being a species-specific or
reservoir specific effort. US SOLAS will encourage innovative studies
and act as a conduit to streamline efforts to settle provocative
hypotheses in the field and in the modeling arena. The effort should not
be seen in isolation of other program developments but rather an
integrated but unique aspect of the study of climate perturbations.
]{.underline}

**[Acronyms]{.underline}**[ ]{.underline}

[ACE Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment]{.underline}

[CCSP Carbon Cycle Science Plan]{.underline}

[CLIVAR CLImate VARiability and prediction program]{.underline}

[COAG CO]{.underline}~[2]{.underline}~[ Observations Advisory
Group]{.underline}

[EDOCC Ecological Determinants of Oceanic Carbon Cycle]{.underline}

[GOOS Global Ocean Observing System]{.underline}

[IGAC International Global Atmospheric Chemistry]{.underline}

[OCTET Ocean Carbon Transport, Exchanges and Transformations
]{.underline}

[SOLAS Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study]{.underline}

[UEA University of East Anglia]{.underline}

[US JGOFS U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study]{.underline}

**[Appendix]{.underline}**

[Current US SOLAS planning committee members:]{.underline}

[Russ Dickerson- U. Maryland `(301) 405-5364`]{.underline}

[Paul Falkowski-Rutgers ` ``	``(732) 932-6555,x 370`]{.underline}

[Bill Keene- U. Virginia (`804) 924-0586`]{.underline}

[Don Lenschow -NCAR (`303) 497-8903`]{.underline}

[Ken Johnson-MBARI (`831) 775 1985`]{.underline}

[Paty Matrai-Bigelow `207) 633-9614`]{.underline}

[Dennis McGillicuddy-WHOI , (`508) 289-2683``	`]{.underline}

[Joyce Penner U.Michigan (`734) 936-0519` ]{.underline}

[Alex Pszenny-MIT `617) 258-7772`]{.underline}

[Rik Wanninkhof-NOAA/AOML (`305) 361-4379`]{.underline}

[Advisors from SOLAS:]{.underline}

[Dick Barber-Duke (`252) 504-7578`]{.underline}

[Bob Duce-Texas A&M (`979) 845-5756`]{.underline}

[Doug Capone-USC (`213) 740-2772`]{.underline}