# Presentation: 177132

## CHANGING PEOPLE’S READINESS BEHAVIOR 

**PUBLIC EDUCATION & INFORMATION RESEARCH FINDINGS**
**& EVIDENCE-BASED APPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE**
**(REV 12B)**

## PRIMARY AUTHORS

**Dennis S. Mileti**
- Professor Emeritus
- University of Colorado at Boulder
**Erica Kuligowski**
- Research Associate
- University of Colorado at Boulder

## CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS 

**Linda B. Bourque, Professor**
- University of California at Los Angeles
**Megumi Kano, Research Associate**
- University of California at Los Angeles
**Michele M. Wood, Research Associate**
- University of California at Los Angeles

## DISCLAIMER

***DISCLAIMER***

_**Supported by**_**:**
- U.S. Department of Homeland Security Grant Number N00140510629, START Center, University of Maryland at College Park
_**However**_**:**
- Opinions, findings, & conclusions are the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security

## PURPOSE

**Review:**
- Research findings accumulated to date
**Present:**
- Evidence-based applications for practice
**Regarding:**
- The** **question.......

## FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION

***FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION***

**HOW DO YOU HELP PEOPLE TO:    ****	**
**	****	****STOP...**
**	****	****	****LISTEN...**
**	****	****	****	****& GET READY...****	****	****	****	****	****	****	****	****	**

## FOR DISASTERS

**They Think Won’t Really Happen**
**And if They Do, Happen to Other People not Them**

## DIFFERENT DISASTERS AGENTS

**Societal****, e.g., terrorism**
**Natural****, e.g., earthquake**
**Technological****, e.g., power plants**
**Biological****, e.g., influenza**
**& more**

## BUT PEOPLE STAY PEOPLE 

## WHAT THERE IS TO KNOW 

**How the Human Animal is Wired:**
- We really do know
**How to Reach People to: **
- Change their preparedness **BEHAVIOR** for events they think won’t happen to them
**Same Process Across Hazard Agents:**
- Because **PEOPLE STAY PEOPLE **
** **

## SOME DEFINITIONS

**What is Readiness/Preparedness?**
- The dependent variable
**What is Public Education?**
- The independent variable

## WHAT IS PUBLIC READINESS?

***WHAT IS PUBLIC READINESS?***

**Public Readiness/Preparedness:**
- Means different things to different people
**And It Can be Viewed:**
- Simply
- Conceptually
- Comprehensively

## A SIMPLE VIEW

***A SIMPLE VIEW***

**72 Hours of Water**
** ****Flashlight & Batteries**
** ****Canned Food/MREs**
** ****Duct Tape**

## A CONCEPTUAL VIEW

***A CONCEPTUAL VIEW***

_**Mitigation/Prevention Actions**_**:**
- Structural, non-structural, medical
_**Preparedness Actions**_**:**
- Supplies & plans
_**Loss Distribution Actions**_**:**
- Insurance
_**Knowledge & Cognitions**_**:**
- What to do when

## A COMPREHENSIVE VIEW

***A COMPREHENSIVE VIEW***

**Learn How to Be Ready: **
- e.g., what to do before, during, & after an event to stay safe
**Plan What to Do: **
- e.g., household disaster plan, supply & information needs
**Train & Practice: **
- e.g., learn first aid
**Organize Supplies & Equipment: **
- e.g., stockpile enough of what you’ll need
**Secure Building Contents: **
- e.g., attach heavy furniture to the walls
**Protect Building Structure: **
- e.g., evaluate the safety of your home
**Safeguard Finances: **
- e.g., buy insurance, have cash on hand

## WHAT’S PUBLIC EDUCATION?

***WHAT’S PUBLIC EDUCATION?***

**Public Education:**
- Means different things to different people
**Includes Many Actors & Activities, e.g.,**
- Brochures, internet sites, television & radio spots
- School coloring books & grocery bag messages
- Museum displays & refrigerator magnets
- School, workplace, & neighborhood activities
**Can be:**
- Different campaigns by different organizations
- A coordinated campaign** **across organizations

## PUBLIC COMMUNICATION RESEARCH FOR HAZARDS

***PUBLIC COMMUNICATION RESEARCH FOR HAZARDS***

**50+ Years of Social Science Research**
- Different disaster types studied
- Public education & warning events researched
**350 Publications:**
- Read, abstracted, key findings listed
- Sub-set of research on public education
**The “Public Education Nut” has been Cracked:**
- We know what works & why

##   ACCESS THE RESEARCH

***  ******ACCESS THE RESEARCH***

**350 Page Annotated Bibliography (with findings summarized): **
*	**http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/publications/informer/infrmr2/pubhazbibann.pdf*
_**But Note**_**:**
- Individual studies = findings
- Findings across studies = knowledge
- All research isn’t “good” research

## WHAT’S IN THE BIBLIOGRAPHY

**Full Reference to Each Publication:**
- Author, title, publication outlet
**Summary Paragraph on:**
- Event studied and study methods
**List of All Hypotheses Supported:**
- e.g., “A” caused “B” or
- “A” caused “B” but only when “C” present

## QUALITY RESEARCH CHARACTERISTICS

***QUALITY RESEARCH CHARACTERISTICS***

**Uses Past Research as its Context**
**Uses Probability Samples**
**Analysis Control for “X, Y & Z” when Examining Impact of “A on B”**
**Determinants of Behavior Measured & Tested vs. Respondents Asked to Speculate “Why”  they did Something**

## QUALITY RESEARCH (cont’d)

***QUALITY RESEARCH (cont’d)***

**Distinguishes Between:**
- What people “think” vs. what people “do” (ARE different)
- Good measures of what’s being studied vs. self-reports:
- _Medical exam self-report_:
- 	“On a scale of 1 to 5, how much cancer do you think you have?”
- _Readiness self-report equivalent_:
- 	“On a scale of 1 to 5, how prepared do you think you are?”
**Recommendations for Practice Based on Replicated Findings Across Studies**

## TOPICS WE’LL COVER

***TOPICS WE’LL COVER***

_**RESEARCH**_**: Summarize Knowledge:**
- What influences the public to get ready?
- How does the process work?
- What’s most important?
_**APPLICATIONS**_**: Summarize How to Apply It Based on Research Evidence:**
- Design programs that work
- Maximize people’s readiness actions

## WHAT INFLUENCES PUBLIC READINESS?(Replicated Research Findings)

***WHAT INFLUENCES PUBLIC READINESS?*****(Replicated Research Findings)**

**Three Categories of Factors: **
- Characteristics of the information
- Characteristics of the audience
- Process by which they mix

## INFORMATION FACTORS

***INFORMATION FACTORS***

**“****About the Public Education & Information Campaign”**

## FACTOR 1: INFORMATION 

_***FACTOR 1***_***: INFORMATION ***

**# Different Sources (who from):**
- The more the better
**# Different Channels (how get it):**
- The more the better
**Frequency (how often they get it):**
- Repetition is a must (confirms & reinforces the message)
- People need to hear it  ≥ 10 times to act
**Guidance (tell them what to do):**
- If you want them to “get ready”, tell them “what to do”

## INFORMATION (cont’d)

***INFORMATION (cont’d)***

**The Event (why they should do it):**
- Potential losses & consequences
- Consequences is more important than the science behind it
- Need to take action
- Not event probability, but need to take action now or not
- How actions cut losses
**Consistency (across communications):**
- Works best if messages from different organizations say the same thing (branding)
**Orchestrated (across organizations):**
- Would be more effective if different organizations work together rather than separately

## FACTOR 2: CUES

_***FACTOR 2***_***: CUES***

**Combining Verbal & Visual Messages:**
- Increases effectiveness
**Two Kinds of Cues:**
- Physical cues (seeing things)
- Social cues (seeing people do things)
**Fundamental to Human Behavior: **
- “Monkey see, monkey do”

## PUBLIC FILTER FACTORS

***PUBLIC FILTER FACTORS***

**“****About the Audience”**
-         Differences in people are a filter through which
-         information must pass. The filter “distorts” the
-         effectiveness of the information disseminated.

## FACTOR 3: STATUS

_***FACTOR 3***_***: STATUS***

**Socio-Economic Status: **
- Different resources & information sources, who’s credible varies
**Age:**
- Young and old most vulnerable
**Gender:**
- Women take more actions, young men = the biggest risk takers
**Race & Ethnicity:**
- Different values & norms, co-varies with socio-economic status
**Acculturation:**
- Integration into local life, disaster norms from other places

## FACTOR 4: ROLES

_***FACTOR 4***_***: ROLES***

**Responsibility for Others, e.g., **
- Partnership, family, children
**Why?**
- Ties to others increases salience of risk reduction & reduces risk-taking behaviors

## FACTOR 5: EXPERIENCE

_***FACTOR 5***_***: EXPERIENCE***

**Experience: with Past Events:**
- People **NORMALIZE** communicated risk information based on their experience
- People think:
- The events they face will be like those experienced
- What was good to do in events experienced is good to do to get ready for future events

## PROCESS FACTORS

***PROCESS FACTORS***

**“****How the Campaign**
** ****and Audience Mix”**

## FACTOR 6: BELIEF

_***FACTOR 6***_***: BELIEF***

**Confusion on this Topic:**
- Equate source credibility with information belief
- “Believing the information” vs. “trusting the source”
**No One Credible Source for Everyone:**
- Single trustworthy sources leave people behind
**Pathways to Information Belief: **
- Multiple sources, not a single source
- Hearing it over & over from an un-trusted source
- _Best_: Hearing it over & over from mixed sources

## FACTOR 7: KNOWLEDGE

_***FACTOR 7***_***: KNOWLEDGE***

_**PUT IN**_**: Most Important Things to Say to Foster Their Getting Ready:**
- What to do to get ready
- Where to get more information about it
_**TAKE OUT**_**: Most Important Things to Remove to Foster Their Getting Ready:**
- Natural inclination: “I’m safe & I don’t need to know anything else”
- Varies by hazard, local culture, & more

## FACTOR 8: PERCEIVED RISK

_***FACTOR 8***_***: PERCEIVED RISK***

**Risk Perception:**
- Does not = behavior
**Major Roadblock to Taking Action:**
- “I’m safe, I’ll find information that confirms it, that’s what I’ll believe & I’ll ignore you”
- People perceive safety
**People Dichotomize Risk & Action:**
- Probabilities translated into “Will it happen or not?”
- Basic question: “Do I need to do something or not?”
- It’s not about behavior in proportion to probability estimates

## FACTOR 9: PERCEIVED EFFECTIVENESS

**Perceived Effectiveness of:**
- Recommended readiness actions
**Degree to Which Actions:**
- Make sense:
- Linked: risk – losses – actions
- And people understand:
- How actions cut losses

## FACTOR 10: MILLING

_***FACTOR 10***_***: MILLING***

**The Key to Public Education that Works:**
- Few do something because someone tells them to
- Most  have to think it’s their own idea
**Comes from Talking It Over with Others:**
- Known as “milling” in social psychology
**Milling is: **
- The **KEY FACTOR **that sparks readiness actions

## HOW FACTORS RELATE

***HOW FACTORS RELATE***

## FACTORS HAVE SEQUENCED EFFECTS (for example)

***FACTORS HAVE SEQUENCED EFFECTS (for example)***

_**Perceived Risk Determined by**_**:**
- Multiple communications
- Multiple channels
_**Milling Determined by**_**:**
- Multiple communications
- Multiple channels
- Perceived risk
_**Mitigation/Preparedness Determined by**_**:**
- Multiple communications
- Multiple channels
- Perceived risk
- Milling

## SEQUENCE OF FACTORS

***SEQUENCE OF FACTORS***

**Status**

**Roles**

**Experience**

**Cues**

**Information**
**Received**

**Milling**

**Knowledge**

**Perception **

**Action**

**Information **
**Belief**

## THE SEQUENCE MODELLED

***THE SEQUENCE MODELLED***

**Status**

**Roles**

**Experience**

**Cues**

**Information**
**Received**

**Milling**

**Knowledge**

**Perception**

**Action**

**Information **
**Belief**

## REDUCING IT TO MATHEMATICS

***REDUCING IT TO MATHEMATICS***

_**Represented by Equations**_**:**
- Called a “*series of simultaneous multiple regression equations*”
_**Can Determine**_**:**
- Effect of every factor in the model on other factors while controlling for the effects of all other factors (“good” science)
_**Result Is**_**:**
- We can distinguish between what’s really important and what isn’t
_**When to Get Excited**_**:**
- When different studies reach the same conclusions
- That’s where we are with research on hazards public education for increased household readiness

## CONCLUSIONS FROM THE MATHEMATICS

***CONCLUSIONS FROM THE MATHEMATICS***

- All Statistically Significant Factors **AREN’T** Equal
- Some Factors are **REALLY** Important:
**1.**** ****INFORMATION RECEIVED**:
- Especially telling what actions to take
**2.**** ****CUES**:
- Seeing others get ready
**3.**** ****MILLING**:
- Talking about getting ready with others
- Some Factors are **LESS** Important:
- Demographics (unless information is poor)

## SEVEN APPLICATION STEPS(from research evidence)

***SEVEN APPLICATION STEPS******(from research evidence)***

**        **

## STEP 1: DESIGN-IN PEOPLE AND CONTEXT FACTORS

_***STEP 1***_***: ******DESIGN-IN PEOPLE AND CONTEXT FACTORS***

**Use Age-appropriate Material**
**Deliver Messages in Multiple Languages **
**Use the Media Used by Audience Segments**
**Partner with Locals/Others to get Message Out**
**Reference Past Disasters & Use Anniversaries**
**Take Advantage of Disasters Elsewhere**
**Install Observable Cues in Neighborhoods**
**Put Printed Material in Strategic Locations, e.g.,**
- Grocery bags
- School coloring books

## MIDDLE CLASS APPROACHES LEAVE OTHERS BEHIND

***MIDDLE CLASS APPROACHES LEAVE OTHERS BEHIND***

## STEP 2: UNDERSTANDABLE AND BELIEVABLE MESSAGES 

_***STEP 2***_***:****** UNDERSTANDABLE AND BELIEVABLE MESSAGES***** **

**Clear Material (no technical terms)**
**Use Locals Who Know to Help Develop Messages**
**Cultivate & Use a Local Champion**
**Partner for Consistency Across Messages:**
- Media packets increase consistency
- Same message (**BRANDING**) from all organizations
**Tell the Public What they Should Do**
**Use Attractive Format, Simple Language, Visual Aids & Graphics, for example....**

## “GET READY PYRAMID”

**“*****GET READY PYRAMID”***

**Safeguard**
**Finances**

**Train & Practice**

**Plan What to Do**

**Organize**
**Supplies & Equipment**

**Secure**
**Building Contents**

**Cost**

**Protect**
**Building Structure**

**Learn How to Be Ready**

**Many of the things you can do to “get ready” are free!**
**You may already have some things in place.**

## STEP 3: “STREAM” OF COMMUNICATION OVER TIME

_***STEP 3***_***:****** “STREAM” OF COMMUNICATION OVER TIME***

**Effective Risk Communication is an ONGOING PROCESS & not Single Act:**
- Sustainable stream on communication over time
**Same Message Communicated:**
- Many times & over diverse dissemination channels
**Explain Changes from Past Messages**
**Incremental Approach Over Time**

## “ONGOING” MULTI-CHANNEL COMMUNICATION

***“******ONGOING” MULTI-CHANNEL COMMUNICATION***

***      *****PUBLIC**

**GROCERY**
**BAGS**

**FRIENDS & **
**RELATIVES**

**MAILED**
**BROCHURE**

**SCHOOLS**

**TV**

**INTERNET**

**RADIO**

**NEWSPAPERS**

**NGOs**

**TALK**
**RADIO**

**FAST FOOD**
**PLACEMATS**

**CABLE**
**TV**

## STEP 4: SHAPE RISK PERCEPTIONS FOR ACTION

_***STEP 4***_***:****** SHAPE RISK PERCEPTIONS FOR ACTION***

**Explain:**
- Who’s at risk, who isn’t, and why
**Communicate Uncertainty about When, What, & Where, But:**
- Certainty in:
- How to get ready
- Experts agree we need to get ready now
**Explain:**
- Potential losses & how they can be prevented/reduced

## LIVES CAN DEPEND ON IT

## STEP 5: MAKE MILLING THE “PRIME TARGET”

_***STEP 5***_***:****** MAKE MILLING THE “PRIME TARGET”***

**Tell Them Where to Get Additional Information **
**Put Additional Information in Accessible Places**
**Take Advantage of Community Events**
**Provide Contact Information, e.g.,**
- Point persons
- Websites
- Mail and email addresses
**Encourage Talking About Getting Ready with Others, e.g.....**

## “LET’S TALK ABOUT OUR FAULTS”  (SoCal EQ Alliance)

***“******LET’S TALK ABOUT OUR FAULTS”  (SoCal EQ Alliance)***

## STEP 6: ENCOURAGE AND SUPPORT ACTION

_***STEP 6***_***:****** ENCOURAGE AND SUPPORT ACTION***

**Give Specific Guidance on What to Do:**
- Before, during, & after
**Use Interactive & Experiential Approaches**
**Take Advantage of Opportunities, e.g., **
- Publicize drills & exercises
**Tell Them Where & How to Get:**
- Resources, technical support & professional services
**Use Public & Private Partnerships to Provide them with Materials**

## EXAMPLE BROCHURE

***EXAMPLE BROCHURE***

## STEP 7: EVALUATE AND MONITOR EFFECTIVENESS

_***STEP 7***_***:****** EVALUATE AND MONITOR EFFECTIVENESS***

**Find Your Starting Place:**
- Get a “baseline” of household readiness actions
**Assess Change:**
- Measure changes in baseline over time
**Determine Visibility:**
- Find out if they recognize your campaign
**Evaluate:**
- Which campaign components are & aren’t working
**Fine Tune:**
- Change your campaign based on findings

## A SURVEY CAN DO THAT

***A SURVEY CAN DO THAT***

**INTERVIEWER****: **_**	**_**	****DATE****: **_**	**__**	**_**	****RESPONDENT ID****: **_**	**_
**HOUSEHOLD READINESS SURVEY****	****	*****INTERVIEW START TIME******: ______ : ______  ******AM / PM***
_**INTRODUCTION**_** **
**Hello, I****’****m ****...**** calling from the University of California.  We are interviewing people to find out what they think should be done to prepare for emergencies and disasters in their community.  This information may help us improve responses to emergencies like Hurricane Katrina and other disasters.  As a thank you, participants will receive a $20 gift certificate.  I need to ask just a few questions to see if you are eligible to participate.**
**	****S1A****.****	****Have I reached you at your home phone?**
**	****	****	****YES****	****SKIP TO S1D ****	****	****1**
**	****	****	****NO****	****	****ASK S1B ****	****	****	****2**
**	****S1B****.****	****Is this a residence?**
**	****	****	****YES****	****ASK S1E****	****	****	****1**
**	****	****	****NO****	****	****TERMINATE, DIAL AGAIN****	****	****2**
**For this survey, I have to speak with someone who lives there who is 18 years old or older.  Are you 18 or over?**
**	****	****	****YES****	****SKIP TO S1F****	**** ****	****	****1**
**	****	****	****NO****	****	****ASK S1E****	**** ****	****	****2**
**	****	****	****NO ONE IN HH IS 18 OR OLDER,TERMINATE****	****3 **

## WHAT’S NEEDED SUMMARY

***WHAT’S NEEDED SUMMARY***

- 1. TAILORED for Diverse Groups (not one public)
- 2. BELIEVABLE & UNDERSTANDABLE Messages
- 3. BRANDING and Consistent Messages
- 4. DIVERSE CHANNELS for Message Delivery
- 5. ONGOING Long Haul Communication Stream
- 6. CUES that Provide Actions they Can See
- 7. TARGET Milling
- 8. SUPPORT Readiness Actions
- 9. EVALUATE Results & Make Changes

## THE SUMMARY DIAGRAMMED 

***THE SUMMARY DIAGRAMMED**** *

- Same Message/Branding
- Over Time
- Diverse Channels
- Across Organizations
- Across Administrations
- Someone is in charge:
- “An Orchestra Leader”
- Partnerships
- Sound Marketing
- Informed by:
- Hazards Social Science
- Evaluation Research

## SUMMARY OF SUMMARY

***SUMMARY OF SUMMARY***

**“****Sell It” Like They Sell Coca-Cola:**
- How old were you when you heard your first ad?
- When did you encounter your last ad?
- How many ads were you exposed to in-between?
- What does Coca-Cola know about public behavior?
**It Should be About What THEY Need to Act:**
**EVERYONE SELLING THE SAME MESSAGE (BRANDING)**
- Different campaigns orchestrated into one
- Ongoing over the long haul
**NOT About “Your” Organization’s:**
**FAVORITE MESSAGE &/OR UNIQUE CAMPAIGN **

## POST SCRIPTS

***POST SCRIPTS***

_**Everything Doesn’t Have to Say Everything**_**:**
- Refer them to other places
- Get them to seek more information (milling fosters actions)
_**Important to “Remove” Wrong Information**_**:**
- They don’t know they’re “hard wired” to think they’re safe,
- 	they just think they’re safe
- They don’t know they believe myths, they just think it’s true
_**Other Strategies for Low Resource Households**_**:**
- Public education can provide incentives to do “no cost” actions
- It can’t help people with little money to buy things
- Work with NGOs to provide them what they’ll need after impact

## SOME OF THE RESEARCH DATA ARE AVAILABLE 

***SOME OF THE RESEARCH DATA ARE AVAILABLE ***

**Archive Includes:**
- Data & Codebooks
- Publication references that describe methods, population & samples
- Re-analyze the data yourself
***http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/issr/da/earthquake/erthqkstudies2.index.htm ***
**Available “Free of Charge” to Anyone Worldwide**
**Replace Well-intended Ideas for Practice with Scientific Findings**

## MORE TO COME

**Presentation Contents:**
- Updated as new knowledge emerges
- Will be revised soon since....
**Largest & Most Detailed Studies Ever Done are Pending: **
- Survey of U.S. population on preparedness for terrorism & natural hazards (UCLA)
- Survey of California households on readiness for earthquakes (UCLA)

**THANK YOU**