# Presentation: 113859

## THE AIR QUALITY PREDICTION PROGRAM IN BRITISH COLUMBIA

- Edward Lord
- Air Quality Program Manager
- Pacific Weather Centre
- Vancouver, B.C.
- ted.lord@ec.gc.ca

**Notes:**
Name, job title and contact information.
Thank organizers of conference for inviting me to speak on our work in forecasting air quality in B.C. and Alex Cannon, Jon Wang, and our partners in the BC Ministry of WLAP and the GVRD for making the forecast program possible

## OVERVIEW

- Prediction program across Canada
- Prediction program in B.C.
- Partnerships
- Ozone forecasts
- Guidance
- Verification
- PM forecast model development
- Future

## WHY AN AIR QUALITY PREDICTION PROGRAM?

- Negative effects on health occur at pollutant concentrations below the levels that trigger smog advisories
*“**Every Canadian has the right to know the quality of air that they breathe”*
- Rt. Hon. David Anderson
- Minister of Environment

**Notes:**
1. Emphasize reasons for a daily aq prediction program as opposed to an advisory program as stated clearly by the minister

## PREDICTION PROGRAMS IN CANADA

- Prediction programs currently exist in Pacific, Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic regions
- Goal is for a national, daily, air quality prediction program by 2004

**Notes:**
Currently forecasting programs are regionally defined and loosely linked.

## Two types of forecast:
Ozone in warm weather season
Ventilation or dispersion year round
Daily forecast program augmented by advisory program
Prediction programs are in partnership with provincial and municipal agencies and health organizations

- Ozone in warm weather season
- Ventilation or dispersion year round
- Daily forecast program augmented by advisory program
- Prediction programs are in partnership with provincial and municipal agencies and health organizations

## PARTNERSHIPS IN B.C.

| LEVEL | UNIT | ROLE |
| --- | --- | --- |
| FEDERAL | 2 Weather Centres

National Centre | Weather Watch
Daily O3 Prediction
Numerical Models |
| PROVINCIAL | Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection | Ambient Monitoring  Advisories |
| MUNICIPAL | Greater Vancouver Regional District | Ambient Monitoring  Advisories |

**Notes:**
The regional AQPP is a cooperative effort of three levels of government.

## FORECAST PROGRAM IN PACIFIC REGION

- Daily max ozone
- 13 regions
- Today and tomorrow
- 6 am and 4 pm issues
- May thru September
- Text bulletin
- Media
- Text/graphics at
-      www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca

**Notes:**
Drill down from the map of B.C. to access forecast for each region

## Slide 8

**Notes:**
Regions defined so that there is a full suite of pollution sensors in each region.
Sensors in a region not necessarily co-located.

## Slide 9

**Notes:**
Yellow triangles represent stations in the LFV which continuously monitor ozone and other pollutants.
Weather parameters such as temperature, wind and rain are also monitored at these stations.

## Slide 10

**Notes:**
AQI defined for reporting purposes.
Graph shows the relationship between AQI and ozone concentration (see next slide)

## Slide 11

| 1-hr Conc. (ppb) | AQI Sub Index | Category |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 0 – 51 | 0 - 25 | Good |
| 52 – 82 | 26 – 50 | Fair |
| 83 – 153 | 50 – 100 | Poor |

## Slide 12

**Notes:**
Time series plot shows the daily maximum ozone in the LFV for the forecasting period in 2002.
Red line shows the values in ppb; blue line shows the values in units of the AQI
~32% of the days were in the fair category, none were in the poor category

## OZONE EXCEEDENCE DAYS 1983 TO 2002

**Notes:**
Exceedence day defined if daily max ozone is in poor category.
There has been a decided drop in the number of these days in the LFV in the past few years.

## FORECASTING TOOLS

- Local meteorology
- Pattern recognition
- Numerical weather prediction models
- Numerical air quality prediction models
- Statistical models

**Notes:**
Not going to discuss the meteorological patterns that lead to high ozone days in the LFV as I did last year, nor the NWP models which help forecasters identify these days.
I will briefly review the numerical aq model we use and the statistical models before moving on the show you how these models are incorporated into the operational forecast program

## CHRONOS

-  O3 patterns and trends
-  under-predicts
-  large errors at specific points
-  not as useful as numerical weather prediction models

## REGRESSION EQUATION

-  O3     = maximum ozone concentration
-  O3ant  = antecedent maximum ozone concentration
-  Tmax  = forecast maximum temperature
-  δr        = yes/no precipitation forecast
-  δp       = inflow/outflow forecast
-  J         = Julian day number
-  J2/104 = second julian day variable
- T850    =  850 hPa temperature forecast

**Notes:**
Log transform relating a predicted daily maximum ozone concentration to various predictors
Coefficients determined by least squares regression.
An equation for each ozone monitoring station (except one) plus an equation for the valley as a whole

## ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK ENSEMBLES

- 7 inputs (O3ant, Tmax, δr, δp, J, J2/104, and T850 )
- 50 neurons in hidden layer
- 1 output (max ozone)
- NNn model
- 50 multilayer perceptrons
- Trained on 6 years of station data
- NNx model
- 50 multilayer perceptrons
- Trained on 6 years of station data using histogram equalization

**Notes:**
I will not discuss these models in detail as this will consume too much of my time today. However, a few points are in order:
In brief, each MLP transforms the inputs into an ozone forecast in a non-linear way.
Each MLP is trained so as to minimize forecast error.
Ensembles of MLPs are used to ensure stable forecasts.
Two ensembles have been developed for each ozone monitoring station
NNn – MLPs trained using a set of cases whose distribution reflects what has been observed at the station in the past
NNx – MLPs trained using a set of cases whose distribution reflects an equal number of good, fair and poor days in an attempt to have a model which is more sensitive to high ozone days.

## T001) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT ROBSON SQUARE (PPB).......: 25

- T002) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT KITSILANO (PPB)...........: 53
- T004) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT KENSINGTON PARK (PPB).....: 33
- T006) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT SECOND NARROWS (PPB)......: 34
- T009) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT ROCKY POINT PARK (PPB)....: 32
- T012) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT CHILLIWACK (PPB)..........: 54
- T013) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT NORTH DELTA (PPB).........: 45
- T014) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT BURNABY MOUNTAIN (PPB)....: 39
- T015) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT SURREY EAST (PPB).........: 59
- T017) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT RICHMOND SOUTH (PPB)......: 47
- T018) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT BURNABY SOUTH (PPB).......: 45
- T020) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT MEADOWLANDS (PPB).........: 50
- T026) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT MAHON PARK (PPB)..........: 46
- T027) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT LANGLEY (PPB).............: 60
- T029) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT HOPE AIRPORT (PPB)........: 64
- T030) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT GOLDEN EARS (PPB).........: 57
- T031) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT VANCOUVER AIRPORT (PPB)...: 37
- T033) ANTECEDENT 1-HR MAX OZONE AT ABBOTSFORD (PPB)..........: 49
- V001) DAY 1 FORECAST JULIAN DAY....................................: 193.0
- V002) DAY 1 FORECAST MAX SURFACE TEMP AT YVR (DEG C)...............: 23.0
- V003) DAY 1 FORECAST AFTERNOON 00Z 850 HPA TEMP AT YVR (DEG C).....: 19.0
- V004) DAY 1 FORECAST POP AT YVR > 50? (Y/N)........................: n
- V005) DAY 1 FORECAST MAX SURFACE TEMP AT YXX (DEG C)...............: 28.0
- V006) DAY 1 FORECAST AFTERNOON 00Z 850 HPA TEMP AT YXX (DEG C).....: 19.0
- V007) DAY 1 FORECAST POP AT YXX > 50? (Y/N)........................: n
- V008) DAY 1 FORECAST MORNING 12Z SLP AT YVR >= SLP AT YHE? (Y/N)...: n
- V009) DAY 2 FORECAST MAX SURFACE TEMP AT YVR (DEG C)...............: 23.0
- V010) DAY 2 FORECAST AFTERNOON 00Z 850 HPA TEMP AT YVR (DEG C).....: 16.0
- V011) DAY 2 FORECAST POP AT YVR > 50? (Y/N)........................: n
- V012) DAY 2 FORECAST MAX SURFACE TEMP AT YXX (DEG C)...............: 28.0
- V013) DAY 2 FORECAST AFTERNOON 00Z 850 HPA TEMP AT YXX (DEG C).....: 16.0
- V014) DAY 2 FORECAST POP AT YXX > 50? (Y/N)........................: n
- V015) DAY 2 FORECAST MORNING 12Z SLP AT YVR >= SLP AT YHE (DEG C)..: n

- P001) Julian Day Number for FRIDAY 12 JUL 2002: 193
- P002) Julian Day Number for SATURDAY 13 JUL 2002: 194
- P003) Observed 1-hr Max Ozone at Brocklehurst (ppb) on THURSDAY 11 JUL 2002: 65.0
- P004) Observed 1-hr Max Ozone at Kelowna (ppb) on THURSDAY 11 JUL 2002: 65.0
- P005) Observed Daily Max Temperature (DEG C) at Kamloops on THURSDAY 11 JUL 2002: 37.0
- P006) Forecast Daily Max Temperature (DEG C) at Kamloops for FRIDAY 12 JUL 2002: 37.0
- P007) Forecast Daily Max Temperature (DEG C) at Kamloops for SATURDAY 13 JUL 2002: 37.0
- P008) Observed Daily Max Temperature (DEG C) at Kelowna on THURSDAY 11 JUL 2002: 39.0
- P009) Forecast Daily Max Temperature (DEG C) at Kelowna for FRIDAY 12 JUL 2002: 38.0
- P010) Forecast Daily Max Temperature (DEG C) at Kelowna for SATURDAY 13 JUL 2002: 37.0
- P011) Forecast 850 MB Temperature (DEG C) at Kelowna for 12z FRIDAY 12 JUL 2002: 19.0
- P012) Forecast 850 MB Temperature (DEG C) at Kelowna for 00z SATURDAY 13 JUL 2002: 27.0
- P013) Forecast 850 MB Temperature (DEG C) at Kelowna for 12z SATURDAY 13 JUL 2002: 19.0
- P014) Forecast 850 MB Temperature (DEG C) at Kelowna for 00z SUNDAY 14 JUL 2002: 28.0

**Notes:**
First part of the form feeds the models developed for the LFV (PWC)
Second part of the form feeds the models developed for the interior (MtnWC)
Default values entered by an automated routine. Forecaster is responsible for q/c’ing these values.

##                                           LNR     NNn     NNn     PROB PROB PROB    NNx     NNx     PROB PROB PROB 

-                                                   AVG     std     GOOD FAIR POOR    AVG     std     GOOD FAIR POOR
- STN   NAME              REGION            ppb/aqi ppb/aqi ppb/aqi %    %    %       ppb/aqi ppb/aqi %    %    %
- ---   ----              ------            ------- ------- ------- ---- ---- ----    ------- ------- ---- ---- ----
- T001  ROBSON SQUARE     VANCOUVER         19/9    21/10   2/1     100  0    0       27/13   8/4     98   2    0
- T002  KITSILANO         VANCOUVER         36/18   42/20   2/1     100  0    0       49/24   6/3     62   38   0
- T006  SECOND NARROWS    NORTH SHORE       27/13   30/14   2/1     100  0    0       35/17   4/2     100  0    0
- T026  MAHON PARK        NORTH SHORE       37/18   42/21   2/1     100  0    0       52/26   4/2     32   68   0
- T017  RICHMOND SOUTH    RICHMOND/DELTA    33/16   34/17   2/1     100  0    0       44/21   8/4     84   16   0
- T031  VANCOUVER AIRPORT RICHMOND/DELTA    30/15   34/17   3/1     100  0    0       40/19   9/4     90   10   0
- T004  KENSINGTON PARK   BURNABY/NEW WEST  31/15   34/17   2/1     100  0    0       34/17   4/2     100  0    0
- T014  BURNABY MOUNTAIN  BURNABY/NEW WEST  39/19   41/20   2/1     100  0    0       38/19   5/2     100  0    0
- T018  BURNABY SOUTH     BURNABY/NEW WEST  30/15   33/16   2/1     100  0    0       41/20   5/3     96   4    0
- T009  ROCKY POINT PARK  NORTHEAST         36/18   38/18   2/1     100  0    0       38/19   6/3     100  0    0
- T013  NORTH DELTA       SURREY/NORTH DEL  30/15   32/16   2/1     100  0    0       34/17   4/2     100  0    0
- T015  SURREY EAST       SURREY/NORTH DEL  44/22   49/24   3/2     74   26   0       51/25   5/3     48   52   0
- T020  MEADOWLANDS       RIDGE MEADOWS     43/21   50/25   3/1     66   34   0       59/31   5/2     4    96   0
- T030  GOLDEN EARS       RIDGE MEADOWS     48/24   55/28   3/1     8    92   0       72/42   4/2     0    100  0
- T027  LANGLEY           LANGLEY           47/23   52/26   3/1     36   64   0       62/34   4/2     0    100  0
- T033  ABBOTSFORD        ABBOTSFORD        45/22   53/27   4/2     34   66   0       52/26   4/2     46   54   0
- T012  CHILLIWACK        CHILLIWACK        47/23   56/29   2/1     0    100  0       62/34   2/1     0    100  0
- T029  HOPE AIRPORT      HOPE              56/29   67/38   3/1     0    100  0       79/48   3/1     0    78   22
- RGNL  MAX               REGIONAL MAX      59/31   67/38   2/1     0    100  0       79/48   3/1     0    90   10
- T001  ROBSON SQUARE     VANCOUVER         18/9    21/10   1/1     100  0    0       31/15   6/3     100  0    0
- T002  KITSILANO         VANCOUVER         32/16   33/16   3/1     100  0    0       37/18   9/5     92   8    0
- T006  SECOND NARROWS    NORTH SHORE       26/13   28/14   1/1     100  0    0       31/15   3/2     100  0    0
- T026  MAHON PARK        NORTH SHORE       35/17   37/18   3/1     100  0    0       43/21   7/4     88   12   0
- T017  RICHMOND SOUTH    RICHMOND/DELTA    33/16   34/17   2/1     100  0    0       44/21   6/3     92   8    0
- T031  VANCOUVER AIRPORT RICHMOND/DELTA    31/15   34/17   2/1     100  0    0       42/21   7/4     92   8    0
- T004  KENSINGTON PARK   BURNABY/NEW WEST  32/16   34/17   1/1     100  0    0       36/18   3/1     100  0    0
- T014  BURNABY MOUNTAIN  BURNABY/NEW WEST  39/19   40/20   2/1     100  0    0       40/19   8/4     94   6    0
- T018  BURNABY SOUTH     BURNABY/NEW WEST  29/14   32/16   1/1     100  0    0       44/22   4/2     90   10   0
- T009  ROCKY POINT PARK  NORTHEAST         38/19   37/18   3/1     100  0    0       39/19   8/4     94   6    0
- T013  NORTH DELTA       SURREY/NORTH DEL  29/14   30/15   1/1     100  0    0       35/17   4/2     100  0    0
- T015  SURREY EAST       SURREY/NORTH DEL  41/20   40/20   4/2     100  0    0       40/19   8/4     92   8    0
- T020  MEADOWLANDS       RIDGE MEADOWS     42/21   45/22   5/2     88   12   0       57/30   9/4     24   76   0
- T030  GOLDEN EARS       RIDGE MEADOWS     45/22   46/23   4/2     88   12   0       62/34   8/4     12   88   0
- T027  LANGLEY           LANGLEY           44/21   43/21   4/2     98   2    0       49/24   9/5     64   36   0
- T033  ABBOTSFORD        ABBOTSFORD        42/20   45/22   4/2     96   4    0       53/26   9/4     40   60   0
- T012  CHILLIWACK        CHILLIWACK        42/21   42/21   4/2     98   2    0       45/22   7/3     78   22   0
- T029  HOPE AIRPORT      HOPE              51/25   49/24   4/2     70   30   0       56/29   11/5    30   70   0
- RGNL  MAX               REGIONAL MAX      56/29   55/29   3/2     8    92   0       69/40   7/4     0    92   8

**Notes:**
Example output for LFV stations.
First half is for a day 1 forecast
Second half is for the day 2 forecast.
Go thru the columns
A default forecast for each region is created by
Identifying the station with the highest forecast concentration
Averaging the 3 model forecasts for that station

## FLCN40 CWVR 121200

- GROUND-LEVEL OZONE FORECAST FOR SELECTED REGIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
- ISSUED AT 6 AM PDT FRIDAY 12 JULY 2002 FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- FORECAST ISSUED JOINTLY BY THE PACIFIC WEATHER CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT
- CANADA AND THE GREATER VANCOUVER REGIONAL DISTRICT AND THE B.C.
- MINISTRY OF WATER LANDS AND AIR PROTECTION. THE NEXT SCHEDULED
- FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AT 4 PM TODAY.
- GREATER VANCOUVER.
-                            TODAY        SATURDAY
-                            AQI/CATEGORY AQI/CATEGORY
- VANCOUVER..................21/GOOD      17/GOOD
- NORTH SHORE................21/GOOD      19/GOOD
- RICHMOND/DELTA.............18/GOOD      18/GOOD
- BURNABY/NEW WESTMINSTER....19/GOOD      19/GOOD
- NORTHEAST..................18/GOOD      19/GOOD
- SURREY/NORTH DELTA.........24/GOOD      20/GOOD
- RIDGE MEADOWS..............31/FAIR      25/GOOD
- LANGLEY....................27/FAIR      22/GOOD
- LOWER FRASER VALLEY.
-                            TODAY        SATURDAY
-                            AQI/CATEGORY AQI/CATEGORY
- ABBOTSFORD.................25/GOOD      23/GOOD
- CHILLIWACK.................28/FAIR      21/GOOD
- HOPE.......................38/FAIR      26/FAIR
- B.C. INTERIOR.
-                            TODAY        SATURDAY
-                            AQI/CATEGORY AQI/CATEGORY
- KAMLOOPS...................32/FAIR      31/FAIR
- KELOWNA....................35/FAIR      35/FAIR
- AIR QUALITY CATEGORIES OF 'GOOD', 'FAIR', 'POOR' CORRESPOND
- TO AIR QUALITY SUB-INDEX RANGES OF 0-25, 26-50 AND >50 RESPECTIVELY.
- "ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS INCREASE AS AIR QUALITY DETERIORATES."
- COPYRIGHT 2002 ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
- END/RN

**Notes:**
This is the forecast presented to the forecaster for editing and final transmission.
Go thru its sections.

## Slide 21

**Notes:**
So, how accurate are the forecasts?

Here is a graph of the 24-hour predictions for Chilliwack.
The forecasts are in red and the verifying observations are in blue on the top graph.
The difference between them (forecast error) is shown in the bottom graph.
You can see we are pretty good when the ozone is less than 25 aqi units, but we sometimes miss the days with higher ozone levels.
There are also days when the forecasts lag the observations, especially on peak days

## Slide 22

**Notes:**
Same as previous graph, only for Kelowna
Variance in the error is somewhat larger for this site. Otherwise, same comments apply as for Chilliwack.

## RMSE VS LEAD TIME

**Notes:**
0-hour and 24-hour forecasts are from the 4 PM edition
12-hour and 36-hour forecasts are from the 6 AM edition
Average RMS errors range between 3 and 6 aqi untis
Chilliwack and Kelowna have relatively larger rms errors than all the average from all the regions

## SKILL VS LEAD TIME

**Notes:**
Skill scores are relative to a simple persistence forecast.
LFV skill scores are pretty good. However, interior scores are low.

## FORECASTER ACCEPTANCE OR ADJUSTMENT OF MODEL GUIDANCE

| Overall  | Accepted  | Adjusted  | Total |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| |E| ≤ 5  | 81%  | 3%  | 84%  |
| 5 < |E| ≤ 10  | 12%  | 1%  | 13%  |
| |E| > 10  | 3%  | <1/2%  | 3%  |
| Total  | 96%  | 4%  | 100%  |

**Notes:**
This slide shows in general how the forecasters interacted with the statistical models
Rows of the contingency table classify the error in the default model forecast into three categories
Columns classify the actions taken by the forecasters
84% of the default forecasts had low error
Only 3% had a significant error
By far most of the forecasts were accepted without adjustment, 96%
Only 4% of all forecasts were changed 
Given that the forecaster adjusted the default forecast, the change improved the forecast 2/3 of the time.
Hopefully, with experience, forecasters will increase this ratio.

## PM10 FORECAST MODELS

- Artificial neural network ensemble models
- 9 stations Lower Fraser Valley
- Predictands were daily maximum 1-, 3-, 6-, 8- and 24-hour concentrations of PM10 in μg/m3

**Notes:**
All these models are in a development phase. None have been implemented in an operational setting.

## PREDICTORS FOR PM10 MODELS

- 65 potential predictors → screening → 17 final predictors
- Antecedent daily maximum PM10 and O3 concentrations
- PM10 tendency
- Maximum surface temperature anomaly
- Occurrence of precipitation and length of dry spells
- Vertical temperature gradient
- Horizontal pressure gradient
- Day of year and day of week

**Notes:**
Potential predictors selected by review and analysis of high PM days in the LFV.
Screening accomplished using statistical routines with final selection of predictors controlled by meteorologist.

## PM10 MODEL ACCURACY: RMSE VS AVERAGING PERIOD 

- PM10 MODEL ACCURACY: RMSE VS AVERAGING PERIOD

**Notes:**
MLR model results for T002 Kitsilano on the west side of Vancouver and T012 Chilliwack in the eastern portion of the LFV
Short period averaging does not seem feasible with these models. 24-hour average concentrations appear to be forecastable.

## PM10 MODEL ACCURACY:  R2 VS AVERAGING PERIOD

- PM10 MODEL ACCURACY:  R2 VS AVERAGING PERIOD

**Notes:**
Accuracy results using a relative measure of forecast accuracy, the coefficient of determination. Higher values of R2 are better.

## 24-HR AVG PM10 MODEL ACCURACY - BIAS

- 24-HR AVG PM10 MODEL ACCURACY - BIAS

**Notes:**
All models exhibit very low average errors

## 24-HR AVG PM10 MODEL ACCURACY – RMSE

- 24-HR AVG PM10 MODEL ACCURACY – RMSE

**Notes:**
MLP and MLR RMS errors comparable – both are significantly lower than persistence.

## 24-HR AVG PM10 MODEL ACCURACY – R2

- 24-HR AVG PM10 MODEL ACCURACY – R2

**Notes:**
R2 values comparable and significantly higher than persistence
Conclusion is that we think we can use simple MLR models to forecast daily max 24-hour average PM10.

## CONCLUSION

- MLP models better than persistence but not better than MLR using these predictors
- Process inherently linear in these predictors
- Predictor set incorrect and/or incomplete
- PM10 observations not amenable to statistical modeling

## PREDICTING DAILY MAXIMUM 24-HOUR AVERAGE PM2.5

- Build MLP ensemble model at Chilliwack
- Infer a PM2.5 forecast from a PM10 forecast and a ratio of  (daily max PM2.5)/(daily max PM10)
- (Antecedent ratio)  x  (PM10 model forecast)

## TEST OF 24-HR AVG PM2.5 FCST USING RATIO METHOD

| N | 853 |
| --- | --- |
| BIAS | 0.0 |
| MAE | 1.3 |
| RMSE | 1.9 |
| R2 | 0.79 |
| SKILL | 29% |

-  Chilliwack
-  06/95 – 06/00 (May through October)
-  24 hour lead time
-  antecedent daily max PM ratios

**Notes:**
Works for Chilliwack.
Needs to be tested at other stations.
If antecedent PM ratio doesn’t work perhaps an ARIMA model forecast will

## PRIORITIES FOR THE FUTURE

- Short term
- Build PM2.5 models
- Include PM10 and PM2.5 in the forecast bulletin
- Promote the forecast to reach more people especially those who are sensitive to air pollution - outreach
- Medium term
- Build wintertime PM10 and PM2.5 models
- Include health/education/action messaging in bulletin
- Expanding the geographical coverage of the forecast
- Longer term
- Better guidance from numerical models
- Definition of a nationally accepted AQI