# Presentation: 798070

## THE AVIATION WEATHER PROGRAM AT THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER

- GULF OF MEXICO WORKING GROUP MEETING
- FEBRUARY 1, 2000
- HOUSTON, TX

**N**
**C**
**E**
**P**

**WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN**

**AVIATION WEATHER CENTER**
**NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION**

##    Alphanumeric messages - turbulence, icing, convection, ceiling/visibility:	SIGMETs, Convective SIGMETs, AIRMETs, Area Forecasts
   Graphic depiction of SIGWX - fronts, jets, convection, freezing levels, etc:
Global High Level SIGWX forecasts, Low Level SIGWX forecasts

**Vision**: Transition to future _enroute_ forecasting activities and products.
- Current formats may be sustained until customers modernize

**Current Forecaster Role**

**Future Forecaster Role**

- _Near Term_
- Graphic Products
- Enhanced Global SIGWX

- _Long Term_
- Gridded Products
- Gridded TAF Guidance

**Major Efforts**

- Training of 36 forecasters in advanced systems, forecast generation techniques and new science
- Transition to Team Forecast Process

-    Alphanumeric messages - turbulence, icing, convection, ceiling/visibility:	SIGMETs, Convective SIGMETs, AIRMETs, Area Forecasts
-    Graphic depiction of SIGWX - fronts, jets, convection, freezing levels, etc:
- Global High Level SIGWX forecasts, Low Level SIGWX forecasts

## Slide 3

## 3 Forecasters issue Area Forecasts, AIRMETS, SIGMETS

## Figure 1: MWO Areas of Responsibility for AWC listed as KKCI, FACA Area Outlined in Red

**FACA Responsibility Outlined in Red**

- MWO KKCI

- MWO KKCI

- MWO KKCI

- MWO KKCI

- MWO KKCI

**Figure 1: MWO Areas of Responsibility for AWC listed as KKCI, FACA Area Outlined in Red**

## Figure 2: MWO Area of Responsibility for AWC

**Figure 2: MWO Area of Responsibility for AWC**

- MWO KKCI

- MWO KKCI

## Figure 3: OFAGX Responsibility for AWC

**Figure 3: OFAGX Responsibility for AWC**

**OFAGX**

## FACA

- OFAGX

**DFW FA**

**MIA FA**

- Figure 5: A comparison of the Domestic Area Forecast Areas, the OFAGX and the FACA

## TODAY’S FORECASTER PROCESS

- Individual Ownership Of A Product
- Single Alphanumeric Bulletins
- Minimum Of Coordination And Interaction With Other Forecasters During Analytical Phase Of Production
- Leads To Inefficiencies In Process
- Same Analytical Tasks Accomplished
- Redundant Composition And Distribution
- Individual Nature Of Products
- Potential For Large Differences In Description Of Attributes From Product To Product
- Differences Lead To Misinterpretation

## TODAY’S FORECASTER PROCESS continued

- 	INDIVIDUAL NATURE OF FORECAST PROCESS DOES NOT FIT INTO THIS ERA OF SHRINKING RESOURCES AND INCREASING DEMANDS FOR HIGHER ACCURACY AND RESOLUTION

## GOAL AT THE AWC 	

- Generate Products Collaboratively And:
- Eliminate Inefficiencies In Production
- Eliminate Inconsistencies In Products

## 1998

- 1999

- ADDITIONALLY, TWO PS OVER THE NORTH POLE, ONE PS OVER THE SOUTH POLE

- ICAO AREAS TO BE DONE BY UNITED STATES

## Figure 6: ICAO Mercator charts prepared four times a day by the AWC Global Graphics Unit

**Figure 6: ICAO Mercator charts prepared four times a day by the AWC Global Graphics Unit**

## Figure 7: ICAO Polar Stereographic Areas prepared by the Global Graphic Unit 

**Figure 7: ICAO Polar Stereographic Areas prepared by the Global Graphic Unit**

## Figure 8: ICAO Area J prepared by the Global Graphics Unit

**Figure 8: ICAO Area J prepared by the Global Graphics Unit**

## EXAMPLE OF HIGH LEVEL SIGNIFICANT WX CHART

## EXAMPLE OF A LOW LEVEL SIGNIFICANT WX CHART

## 3 Forecasters issue Area Forecasts, AIRMETS, SIGMETS

## AIRMET SIERRA UPDT 3 FOR IFR AND MTN OBSCN VALID UNTIL 072100

- .
- AIRMET IFR...TX
- FROM ADM TO TXK TO PSX TO BRO TO 80W BRO TO LRD TO SJT TO ADM
- OCNL CIGS/VIS BLW OVC010/3SM IN CLDS..PCPN AND BR. CONDS CONTG
- BYD 21Z THRU 03Z.
- .

##  	Forecasters Historically Had Been Able To 	Coordinate Descriptions Of Weather 		Phenomena Along Predetermined 			Geographical Boundaries

-  	New Work Could Not Add Significant 		Production Time With Resolution Of 		Inconsistencies And Assimilation Of Work 	Produced By The Hydrometeorological 		Prediction Center
-  	Issuance Of Final Products For Facsimile 	Transmission Had To Be Transparent To 		User

## 1

- 2

- 3

- 4

- 5

- THREE FORECASTERS AND THE HPC INVOLVED IN FORECAST PRODUCTION

## LOW LEVEL CHART AS SHIPPED TO USER

##   	Weather Production Inefficiencies And 		Inconsistencies In Products Used For Air 		Traffic Management Decisions Often 		Compound Operational Problems

-  	Thunderstorms Represent The Single Most 		Disruptive Weather Phenomenon In The 		Operations Of The National Airspace System
-  	Forecasts Of Thunderstorms Produced Must 		Have A High Degree Of Consistency Among 	Producers To Limit The Degree Of Uncertainty 	Among Users As To Key Decision Factors

##  	FAA Asked AWC To Become The Focus For A 	Collaborative Convective Forecast Product  To 	Be Used In Strategic Routing And Scheduling 	Decisions

-  	Up To 25 Government And Airline Forecasts 	Could Be Used To Produce A Cohesive Product
-  	Telephone Or Video Conference Ruled Out As 	Unacceptable Since:
-  	Typically Chaotic
-  	Difficult To Document
-  	Imperfect Understanding Where Highly 		Technical Subjects Are Considered

## Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

## Slide 26

##  	Final Report Reflects Success Of 		Collaboration Even Though There 	Was No Marked Improvement In 		Accuracy Of The Forecasts

-  	FAA Indicates The Perceptions Of 	Success Had More To Do With 		Consistency Of Products With All 		Players Buying Into Final Solution

## LOW LEVEL SIGNIFICANT WX CHART PRODUCED BY AAWU

- HIGH LEVEL SIGNIFICANT WX CHART PRODUCED BY AWC

##  	Increased Productivity At The AWC

-  	Much Wider Application As Capabilities Are 	Enhanced
-  	Internet Technology Is Very Viable For 		Collaborative And Consensus Based Weather 	Information Products
-  	AWC Expects To Revolutionize Its Production 	Capability Over The Next Few Years
-  	Sufficient Investment Is A Necessity For 		Further Development Of Technology And Its 	Applications

## AWC Home Page Soon to be merged with ADDS

## _x001a_

- Meteorological Impact
- Statement (MIS)
- 31 Jan 2000 - 13:10:31 UTC
- Houston ARTCC (KZHU)
- ZHU MIS 01 VALID 311305-312115
- ...FOR ATC PLANNING PURPOSES
- ONLY...
- ZHU AND ADJ CSTL WTRS OCNL
- LGT-MDT TURBC ABV FL200 BYD
- 21Z DUE TO JTSTR. OCNL
- LGT-MDT RIME/MXD ICGIC
- 150-FL300 BYD 21Z. ZHU E
- LRD-SJI LN/ADJ CSTL WTRS
- ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHRA BYD 21Z.
- VRBL-LTL MOVMT TX PTN/MOVG
- EWD 30-40KTS LA-AL PTN. TOPS
- 100-FL200. MORE NMRS ALG
- EXTRM CST AND OVR CSTL
- WTRS. ZHU GLFMEX
- ISOLD-WDLY SCT TS/SHRA PSBL
- BYD 21Z. MAX TOPS FL350-450.
- MOVG EWD 30-40KTS.
- DW

- Meteorological Impact Statement

## Product Distribution

**1. IFFDP**

## Communications AWC.......to.......CUSTOMER

- AWC

- DELIVERY

- END USER

- Production

- Fax Back

- 24 HOUR HELP Desk

- 877 Toll Free Service

- Product

## Product Distribution

**2. INTERNET**

**IMPROVING AND MERGING**

## Research

*Research*

**Products**

**User Feedback**

***Clients***
**FAA Ops.**
**Air Transportation**
**Regional**
**Business**
**General Aviation**

**Cooperative roles of operations and research**

-   FSL
-   NCAR
-   Universities
-   Lincoln Labs
-   FAA Tech Center

## FAA Testbed Year 2000 Activities

- Installation of New Data Ingest and Product Development System with Redundancy.
- Establish Experimental Phase for IIFA, VVSTORM, and other programs.
- Work from Experimental towards Guidance Phase with IIDA, NCWF, ITFA, and MWAVE.
- New Displays and Grib Files available on the Internet.

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