# Presentation: 532331

##  Vulnerability and Risk

**2003 National Hurricane Conference**
**New Orleans, LA         April 14, 2003**

- Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow, Director
- Lab for Social & Behavioral Research
- International Hurricane Center

## QUESTIONS:

**	****What’s involved in assessing risk?**
**	****What are some possible elements of a coordinated Federal response to assess and address the risk of coastal communities and residents?**

## RISK

**+**

**VULNERABILITY**

**HAZARD**

**=**

**RISK**

- (Event Risk)

- (Outcome)

## HAZARDS

**	**** ****Accurate information about incidence and nature of the hazard **
**	****Probabilistic event risk**
**	****Based on historical data, prediction science**
**	****	**

## TROPICAL CYCLONES	

** ****WINDS**
** ****SURGE**
** ****INLAND FLOODING**
** ****TRACK**
** ****TIMING**

**Initiatives:**
**Better prediction models**
**Standard language**
**Effective illustrations**
**Visualization**
**Accurate mapping**
**Real-time modeling**

## Airborne Laser Terrain Mapping

**Infrared laser range finder provides distance to ground**
**Rotating scanning mirror images swath beneath aircraft**
**Differential GPS provides aircraft location**
**Inertial reference system provides aircraft orientation**
**Post processing provides x,y,z coordinates of ground surface**

## Slide 7

## Feet

**Notes:**
Simple Flood USGS

## VULNERABILITY	

**	****Inherent characteristics of the response system**
**	****Whatever limits the ability of a community or individual to respond effectively:**

** ****Mitigate**
** ****Prepare**
** ****Evacuate**

** ****Respond**
** ****Recover**

## DIMENSIONS OF VULNERABILITY

## DYNAMIC FORCES

**Population growth**
**Rapid urbanization**
**Economic restructuring**
**Changing politics**
** ****Etc. **

**“...****over the next 50 years, economic losses from socioeconomic and demographic changes .... will be from 20 to 60 times greater than losses due to increased incidence of extreme weather.”                            Sarewitz, Pielke Jr., and Keykhah**

## POPULATION AT RISK

** ****83.2 million reside in Atlantic       ****	****and Gulf coastal counties**
** ****29.6% of U.S. population**
** ****Coastal density:**
** ****Atlantic = 402.0 per square mile**
** ****Gulf = 136.8 per square mile**
** ****Non-Coastal U.S. = 44.2 per square mile**

## Slide 13

## Slide 14

## ROOT CAUSES

**LACK OF RESOURCES**
** ****Economic**
** ****Physical **
** ****Political**
** ****Social Institutions**
** ****Social Networks**

**(Contextual Factors)**

## Household Hazard Vulnerability Can Result from:

**Inadequate economic and material resources**
**Physical and mental limitations**
**Age, gender, race/ethnicity discrimination**
**Large ratio of dependents to productive adults**

## Household Hazard Vulnerability Can Result from:

**Lack of knowledge and/or prior disaster experience**
**Illiteracy or lack of language proficiency**
**Cultural differences**
**Lack of social integration**
**Lack of control over housing conditions**

## Selected Types of Coastal Households

|  | % of Total |
| --- | --- |
|  |  |
| Female-headed
  With children under 18
   | 
 13.6 |
| Elders (over 65) |  14.0 |
|  |  |
| Renters | 36.3 |

- U.S. Census 2000.

## UNSAFE ENVIRONMENT

**Fragile physical environment**
**Fragile social environment**

## REDUCING VULNERABILITY

**Doesn’t rely on accurate prediction**
**Pays off even if no event**
**Improves quality of life**

**Requires real money up front to reduce hypothetical losses**
**Tough political sell**
**Requires leadership, incentives and regulations**

## FEDERAL ROLE?

**Take the lead in moving the paradigm toward a vulnerability approach to risk management.**

## “Federal initiatives such as Stafford Act, National Flood Insurance, beach nourishment programs, tax incentives for second homes should be reexamined to reduce their role as stimulators of coastal growth.”  Heinz Report on Human Impacts

## Support research to better understand how individual factors known to influence vulnerability work and the findings used by emergency managers and disaster responders to address the needs of specific groups and places.

## Provide education and outreach programs to change policy and practice at all levels toward a vulnerability paradigm.

**Promote the development **
**	****of models that link **
**in a coherent and convincing ****	****	****	****framework.**

** ****hazard risk, **
** ****vulnerability, **
** ****resilience, and **
** ****day-to-day life**

## References

**Blaikie, P.T., I. David Cannon, and B. Wisner. 1994. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge Press.**
**Sarewitz, D., R. Pielke, Jr. and M. Keykhah. “Vulnerability and Risk: Some Thoughts from a Political and Policy Perspective.” Unpublished manuscript.**
**Buckle, P., G.L. Marsh and S. Smale. 2002. Reframing Risk, Hazards, Disasters, and Daily Life. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. 20 (3): 309-324.**

## Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow, DirectorLAB FOR SOCIAL & BEHAVIORAL RESEARCHINTERNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

- Florida International UniversityMiami, FL 33199morrowb@fiu.eduPhone: 305 348 1607 www.fiu.edu/~lsbr