# Presentation: 082718

## American Community Survey  Update

- Presentation made to the
- Joint CIC/FSCPE/SDC Steering Committee
- February 6, 2008
- Susan Schechter and Deborah Griffin
- American Community Survey Office

## Areas of Emphasis in 2008

- Continue careful management of resources
- Submit to Congress by March 31, 2008 the planned questions for 2010 Census and ACS
- Successfully implement new questionnaire in 2008

## Areas of Emphasis in 2008

- Finalize recommendation from 2007 Content Test on Field of Degree question and submit revised questionnaire to OMB in July
- Increase focus on data users needs
- Produce the first multiyear estimates
- Continue critical research priorities

## FY08 Budget Update

- Budget includes full funding for conducting the ACS in the U.S. and Puerto Rico
- Program changes
- Increased funds for annual ACS Field Interviewer  training sessions and observation activities
- Increased funds for enhancements to the Group Quarters activities

## FY08 Budget Update

- No Methods Panel funding
- Canceled plans for test of multi-lingual brochure
- Canceled plans for test of additional mailing during CATI phase
- Canceled all planning activities

## Submission of 2010 and ACS Questions to Congress

- Required by law two years prior to conducting the decennial census
- Subjects planned for 2010 Census and ACS submitted last year
- www.census.gov/Press-release/www/2007/subjects_notebook.pdf
- Submission to Congress includes examples of questions, citations, and brief narrative description of uses

## Submission of 2010 and ACS Questions to Congress

- Interagency Committee for the ACS is the mechanism for reaching out to agencies to obtain needed documentation
- Will serve as a useful tool for you in explaining the purpose of questions to data users; will show you which federal agencies use the data most

## Implementation of New 2008 Questionnaire

- Based on results of 2006 ACS Content Test
- 8 housing topics were tested
- 12 detailed person topics were tested
- 3 new questions were tested
- Health Insurance Coverage
- Marital History
- Veterans Service-connected Disability

## Interviewer Feedback on the New Questionnaire

- Purpose is to provide additional training, guidance, or clarifications if needed
- Close to 50 telephone and field representatives will participate
- Focus groups will also be conducted

## Interviewer Feedback on the New Questionnaire

- Interviewers are asked if respondents had difficulty understanding or responding to questions
- Also ask interviewers what strategies they found to be successful in addressing those concerns and what other tools they need

## 2007 ACS Content Test

- Tested two versions of a new question on field of bachelor’s degree
- Categorical/forced-choice
- Open-ended
- Benefits
- Annual field of degree (FOD) data for small levels of geography
- Assist with sample frame development for NSCG

**Notes:**
As you know, the 2007 ACS content test was designed to study two versions of a new question on field of bachelor’s degree.  One of these versions was categorical or forced-choice, and one was open-ended. 

The inclusion of a FOD question on the ACS was proposed to provide FOD data annually for small levels of geography, and to assist in building a sampling frame for the National Survey of College Graduates.

The new FOD question followed the educational attainment question on the ACS, and was asked only of those with a bachelor’s degree or higher. (~25% of adults have a bachelor’s degree or higher)  

As I mentioned, we tested two versions of these questions...

## Categorical

**Notes:**
As a refresher, here is the categorical or forced-choice version of the question from our mail questionnaire.  This question provides a series of broad degree categories with yes/no checkboxes by each category grouping, as well as a write-in option if the field of degree isn’t represented in the other categories.  

Respondents were asked to mark “yes or no” to each category and to provide a response in the write-in field if they felt their degree was not represented in the other categories.

You’ll also notice that we added a skip instruction before the question to ensure that only those with a bachelor’s degree or higher responded to the question.

## Open-ended

**Notes:**
The second version, on the other hand, is completely open-ended, requiring a written response.

You’ll note that this question has the same skip instruction as the categorical version.

## Outreach and Planning for Multiyear Estimates

- Engaged stakeholders in several ways
- Federal Register Notice described plans for data products and release schedule
- Summarized public comments and distributed to advisory groups and stakeholders for additional comment
- Convened workshop of selected experts to review public comments

**Notes:**
The strategy for releasing the first ACS multiyear estimates revolved around early input form stakeholders for the actual data tables that will be released as well as information on how to use the estimates for data users – new users as well as advanced users.

## Outreach and Planning for Multiyear Estimates

- We are now actively collaborating with experts to develop education materials for a broad set of data users
- Materials will focus on “how to” and will include case studies
- Education campaign will include materials on the web that can easily be downloaded

**Notes:**
The strategy for releasing the first ACS multiyear estimates revolved around early input form stakeholders for the actual data tables that will be released as well as information on how to use the estimates for data users – new users as well as advanced users.

## Looking Ahead

- Education and information
- Education materials will be finalized.
- Extensive updating of the website content.
- Outreach campaign with Federal agencies and stakeholders to assist in understanding multiyear estimates.

**Notes:**
The new educational materials will be disseminated with the first ACS multiyear estimates in August and September 2008.

## Looking Ahead

- Data release
- Release of  2007 ACS 1-year estimates beginning with the August release of income and poverty.
- First time users will have two years of full ACS data to compare
- Release of 2005-2007 multiyear estimates for smaller areas of geography before the end of the calendar year

**Notes:**
The new educational materials will be disseminated with the first ACS multiyear estimates in August and September 2008.

## Research and Evaluation Updates

- Seasonality Research – Q25
- Multiyear Estimates Study

**Notes:**
I plan to give you some updates on two research projects –
Seasonality Research – Q25
Multiyear Estimates Study

## Background

- The ACS questionnaire in 1999 – 2002 collected information about seasonal households
- Cognitive testing found problems with respondents’ completion of this question

**Notes:**
IN 1999 a question was added to the ACS to try to better understand the degree to which seasonality is a factor in the ACS and to evaluate our ability to collect this type of information.

Q28 in the housing section asked – “Do all of the people listed on pages 2 and 3 live at this address year round?”
If no, “Of the persons listed on pages 2 and 3, how many live somewhere else part of the year?” –options were either ALL persons listed or SOME persons (with a writein of a # of persons)

“Do you consider this house, apartment, or mobile home, that uses the address on the front cover – your 
Primary residence?
Vacation home?
School residence?
Work residence?
Other – specify

Cognitive testing found problems with respondents’ completion of this question

## Background

- The question was revised in 2003 and data were collected using the revised question in 2003 – 2007
- Q25 data were never published – collected for evaluation uses only
- Q25 was dropped from the 2008 ACS

**Notes:**
The question was revised in 2003 and data were collected using the revised question in 2003 – 2007 

Q25 was a 3-part housing question – no data were collected at the person level

I’ll talk more about the question in a minute but I want to clarify that (as in 1999-2002) this question was added to facilitate ACS evaluations of seasonality – not to produce estimates of seasonal living patterns

As Susan has reported in previous meetings – we have the data we need for our evaluations and so this questionis NOT included in 2008

## Background - Q25a

- Do you or any member of this household live or stay at this address year round?
-   Yes – SKIP to the questions for Person 1                                        	on the next page
-   No

**Notes:**
Lets talk about Q25 – the purpose of this question was to identify potential seasonal units – units where no one lived year round
Question is posed at the address or household level

## Background - Q25b

- How many months of the year do members of this household stay at this address?
- 	Months

**Notes:**
People responding NO – they do not live here year round – are asked part b

## Background – Q25c

- What is the main reason members of this household are staying at this address?
-   This is their permanent address
-   This is their seasonal or vacation address
-   To be close to work
-   To attend school or college
-   Looking for permanent housing
-   Other, specify

**Notes:**
Again, all households responding NO to Q25a are asked part c

## Results

- Responses to Q25 in the 2005 ACS were summarized for this analysis
- Data were weighted using the final ACS housing weights, no editing or adjustments were made for item nonresponse
- Separate estimates were produced for all areas that were published in 2005

**Notes:**
Responses to Q25 in the 2005 ACS were summarized for this analysis

Data were weighted using the final ACS housing weights, no editing or adjustments were made for item nonresponse
Separate estimates were produced for all areas that were published in 2005 – that is, areas of 65K and greater
[Note – for this analysis we have not calculated sampling errors – we plan to do this]

## 2005 National Results – Q25a Universe:  Occupied Households

**Notes:**
Using 2005 data – 95% of all occupied households responded YES – indicating that the lived at the sample address YEAR ROUND
3% did not respond to this question

2% responded NO

## 2005 National Results - Q25bUniverse:  Occupied households responding “No” to Q25a

**Notes:**
Of the cases responding NO to Q25a – 
60% responded with a writein of 6 to 12 months (note this includes 13.5% that responded with 12 months - which could include HHs that should have skipped this question or HHs that meant it was closest to 12 but not year round)
23% responded with a write-in of 1 through 5 months,
this includes 5.8% that responded 1 or 2 months [2 months could mean 2 1⁄2 months so responses could be valid, responses could also indicate rostering included people in error given the 2-month rule, note that the ACS residence rules do include people living for 1-2 months if they have no other place where they live for more than 2 months]
Nonresponse to this question was high – 17%

## 2005 National Results - Q25cUniverse:  Occupied households responding “No” to Q25a

**Notes:**
Of the cases responding NO to Q25a – meaning this is NOT a place where everyone lives YEAR ROUND –
37% identified this as a permanent residence, 20% as seasonal/vacation, 11% where they stay while attending school.  [Note that nonresponse was high – 13%)

We looked at this for the people reporting 1-5 months versus 6 or more months and YES, we see different results
If they reported 1-5 months the #1 answer of why was seasonal (49%) and 16% still stated it to be a permanent residence (1% other and 10% school)

For households reporting this to be where they live more than 6 months the #1 response was permenant address (53%) followed by 16% attending school, 14% seasonal/vacation

## Using Q25 to Identify Seasonal Housing Units

- For purposes of this analysis, seasonal housing units are defined as all occupied housing units providing
- a response of “No” to Q25a and
- a value of 1-5 months in Q25b

**Notes:**
For purposes of this analysis, seasonal housing units are defined as all occupied housing units providing

a response of “No” to Q25a and 
a value of 1-5 months in Q25b
These are the households that theoretically would not have been included as occupied units in the census under a usual residence rule unless the HH had no other place that they lived– they would have been defined as vacant units

It is not a perfect measure but one that is possible from these data

Remember this doesn’t include individual persons who might have been included here but have another place where they live for 6 or more months 

## 2005 National Results - Q25

- Based on this definition, in 2005 the percent of occupied housing units classified as seasonal housing units was less than 0.5% at the national level
- Variation seen at the state level

**Notes:**
Based on this definition, in 2005 the percent of seasonal housing units at the national level was less than 0.5%

Variation seen at the state level
Notes:  While we didn’t adjust for nonresponse – we looked at the sensitivity to NR and found that If all nonresponse to the months question were 1-5 months this would rise to about 0.8%
If nonresponse were treated as random and 23.2% of the nonresponse were assigned a value of 1-5 months, the rate would be about 0.6%

## 2005 ResultsState-level Rates of Seasonal Housing Units

**Notes:**
State level variation – most states had low rates, 3 had rates of 1% or higher

## 2005 ResultsStates With Highest Rates of Seasonal Housing Units

- Arizona – 1.8%
- Florida – 1.5%
- Maine – 1.0%

**Notes:**
They are –
Arizona – 1.8%
Florida – 1.5%
Maine – 1.0%
Next highest states included
Montana – 0.7%
Alaska – 0.7%
Vermont – 0.6%
Idaho – 0.6%
Hawaii – 0.6%

## 2005 ResultsCounty-level Rates of Seasonal Housing Units

**Notes:**
We also looked at data for all the areas published in 2005 (areas of 65K and greater)
This graph summarizes data for counties - based on 747 published counties (areas of 65k and greater)
9 counties had rates of 4% or more

## 2005 ResultsCounties With Highest Rates of Seasonal Housing Units

- Yuma, AZ – 8.9%
- Cape May, NJ – 5.9%
- Highlands, FL – 5.5%
- Indian River, FL – 4.4%

**Notes:**
Those counties include
Yuma, AZ – 8.9%

Cape May, NJ – 5.9%

Highlands, FL – 5.5%

Indian River, FL – 4.4%

## 2005 ResultsCounties With Highest Rates of Seasonal Housing Units (cont.)

- Pinal, AZ – 4.4%
- Collier, FL – 4.3%
- Lee, FL – 4.2%
- Manatee, FL – 4.1%
- Madison, KY – 4.0%

**Notes:**
And

Pinal, AZ – 4.4% 

Collier, FL – 4.3%

Lee, FL – 4.2%

Manatee, FL – 4.1%

Madison, KY – 4.0%

## 2005 ResultsOther Geographic Areas

- Congressional Districts  - 4 of 436 had rates above 3% (highest 4.4%)
- Places - 5 of 509 had rates above 3% (highest 7.5%)

**Notes:**
Looking at a few other types of geographic areas released in 2005
Congressional Districts  - 4 of 436 had rates above 3% 

Places - 5 of 509 had rates above 3% 

## 2005 ResultsOther Geographic Areas

- Metropolitan or Micropolitan Statistical Areas - 10 of 482 had rates above 3% (highest 8.9%)
- Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs) - 30 of 2,071 had rates above 3% (highest 9.4%)

**Notes:**
Metropolitan or Micropolitan Statistical Areas - 10 of 482 had rates above 3% 

Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs) - 30 of 2071 had rates above 3% 

## Observations

- Preliminary assessment is that seasonal housing units do not appear to be an issue for areas receiving 1-year estimates
- Seasonal housing units are expected to cluster at smaller geographic levels

**Notes:**
Large geographic areas (states, PUMAs, places, Congressional Districts, counties over 65,000 population) have low proportions of seasonal housing units
Highest rates still under 10% and rare incidence across large counties

If all areas showed similar pattern we could conclude that seasonal housing was not a major issue – rare incidence and even highest levels are not that high

BUT – we expect rates to rise for smaller geographies

## Next Steps - Spring 2008

- Produce estimates based on Q25 for areas of 20,000 and greater based on 2003 - 2006 ACS data
- Since 2003 and 2004 have reduced sample sizes, this approximates a 3-year estimate
- Analyze results to estimate the number of areas receiving 3-year estimates with high rates of seasonal housing units

**Notes:**
We have just begun to work with these data and plan to produce 2 more datasets for analysis – based on 2003 – 2006 data we will approximate a 3-year estimates [Remember that 2003 and 2004 have demonstration program sample sizes]
Analyze results to estimate the number of areas receiving 3-year estimates with high rates of seasonal housing units 

## Next Steps – Fall 2008

- Produce estimates based on Q25 for smallest areas based on 2003 - 2007 ACS data
- Since 2003 and 2004 have reduced sample sizes, this approximates a 5-year estimate
- Analyze results to estimate the number of areas receiving 5-year estimates with high rates of seasonal housing units

**Notes:**
Similarly we will add in data from2 007 once they are available this fall

## Additional Research

- At what level is the rate of seasonal housing units high enough to be problematic?
- Additional analysis is needed to assess if the characteristics of the population living in seasonal housing differ markedly from the population in non-seasonal housing

**Notes:**
Even high rates aren’t a problem unless characteristics differ

We are also looking at the characteristics of the people living in “seasonal” housing units and the weighted and unweighted characteristics of the population in areas identified as having the highest levels of seasonality

## Your Feedback

- Goal of today’s presentation is to share information about our approach to studying this issue
- Your feedback is welcomed

## Findings from the Multiyear Estimates Study

**Notes:**
Now I’d like to talk a little bit about the work we have completed involving the production and reviewof a set of multiyear estimates

## Multiyear Estimates Study

- Included research conducted by Census Bureau staff and external researchers
- Preliminary evaluation summaries are accessible from the ACS Multiyear Estimates webpage, final reports will be available soon

## Multiyear Estimates Study

- Provided an opportunity to “dress rehearse” and improve methods planned for this year’s production of 3-year estimates
- Raised issues about thresholds and data release rules
- Gave us real examples and case studies to better understand issues

## Multiyear Estimates Study

- Reliability
- Research by Starsinic and Tersine includes tables with median CVs by topic crossed by size of geographic area and by size of estimate
- G-weights found to reduce SEs for some key estimates, no negative effects found
- Reliability concerns raised about tract-level estimates (aggregating results suggested)

## Multiyear Estimates Study

- Stability issues noted with 1-year estimates (improvements found with use of 3-year estimates instead)
- Analysis of data by race and ethnicity showed consistency in the differences in poverty and home ownership rates

**Notes:**
Do the estimates achieve acceptable levels of quality for areas and groups they are designed to describe

## Multiyear Estimates Study

- Additional research is underway on quality issues – coverage, item nonresponse, and unit nonresponse rates for small areas
- Guidance on usability developed to help users choose between 1, 3, and 5-year estimates

## For More Information

- American Community Survey
- _[www.census.](http://www.census.gov/acs/www)__[gov](http://www.census.gov/acs/www)__[/](http://www.census.gov/acs/www)__[acs](http://www.census.gov/acs/www)__[/www](http://www.census.gov/acs/www)_
- _[cmo](mailto:cmo.acs@census.gov)__[.](mailto:cmo.acs@census.gov)__[acs](mailto:cmo.acs@census.gov)__[@census.](mailto:cmo.acs@census.gov)__[gov](mailto:cmo.acs@census.gov)_

***ACS Alert***
- _[http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Special/Alerts.htm](http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Special/Alerts.htm)_