# Presentation: 928898

## US Public Opinionabout Climate Change Issues:Patterns, Trends and International ComparisonsPresentation atNASA Goddard Space Flight Center8 November 2006

**Thomas L. Brewer**
- Georgetown University
- and Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels)

## Questions

**How does U.S. public opinion compare with public opinion in other countries?**
**Is there a consensus in the U.S. about**
***the problem*****?**
**3. Is there a consensus about**
***solutions*****?**

## International Comparisons

## Slide 4

## Is global warming happening?

- _ABC/Washington Post (June 2005):_   	    _**59%**_
- 	“Completely convinced” or “mostly convinced” that “global warming is actually happening”
- _Oak Ridge Center/Harris (Sept. 2005)_     _**72% **_”Already	seeing effects today”
- _Gallup (March 2006):_			    _**58%**_
- 	Effects of global warming “have already begun”
- _Time/ABC/Stanford (March 2006):_           _**85%**_
-    Think world’s temperature has “probably” been “going up slowly over the past 100 years”

## How much of a problem is it?

-         “Serious problem now”		38%
-         “Serious problem in future”	85
-  Time/ABC/Stanford (March 2006)

## Has there been a change in the level of concern?(Opinion Research Corporation – February 2006)

|  Self-reported change in past two years |  |
| --- | --- |
| Much more concerned | 34% |
| Somewhat more concerned | 24 |
| No change | 29 |
| Somewhat less concerned | 7 |
| Much less concerned | 4 |

## Comparisons across Party AffiliationsThreat to future generations(ABC / Washington Post – June 2005)

## Federal government should do .....

-       Much more					46%
-       Somewhat more				22
-       Doing about right amount		25
-       Somewhat less			 	  2
-       Much less				  	  3
*(*Time/ABC/Stanford - March 2006 )

## Climate Change AgendaFour Issue Domains

- 					            “Scope”
*“**Approach”**                 *International     Domestic
-    *Regulatory*
*   *
*   **Technological*

| 
         I | 
        II |
| --- | --- |
| 
        IV | 
        III |

## Issue Domain I: Kyoto Protocol

## Issue Domain II: Domestic RegulationsRequire Large Firms to Reduce GHG Emissions?(PIPA – June 2004 and June 2005)

## Federal government should:(Time/ABC/Stanford - March 2006 )

|  | Require
 | Encourage
 | Stay Out
 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Reduce power plant GHG emissions | 61 | 26 | 11 |
| Cars use less gasoline | 45 | 40 | 15 |
| Appliances use less electricity | 42 | 41 | 17 |
| Homes & offices less energy for heating/cooling | 33 | 51 | 15 |

## What about taxes?(Time/ABC/Stanford - March 2006 )

|  | Favor
% | Oppose
% |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Increase taxes on electricity | 19 | 81
 |
| 
Increase taxes on gasoline
 | 
31 | 
68 |

## Domestic Regulations: CaliforniaPercent in favor of reducing new car GHG emissions(PPIC - 2004 and 2005) 

## Issue Domain III: Domestic TechnologySubsidies for Electricity Produers?(Time/ABC/Stanford - March 2006 )

|  | Favor
% | Oppose
% |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Tax breaks for companies to produce electricity from water, wind, solar | 
87 | 
12 |
| Tax breaks for companies to build nuclear power plants
 | 
41 | 
56 |

## Issue Domain IV: International Trade, Investment and Technology Transfer

- Not enough survey data!
- “Climate Change” Title XVI
- Energy Policy Act of 2005
- Expanded the Climate Change Agenda

## More about the Technological Alternatives on the Agenda

- Work by Pacala and Socolow at Princeton
- Pacala, Stephen W., and Robert H. Socolow, 2004. “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” *Science*, 305 (August 13): 968-972.
- Socolow, Robert H., and Stephen W. Pacala, 2006. “A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check,” *Scientific American, *September: 50-57.

## Summary of Technological ‘Wedges’ for Climate Change Mitigation Developed by Pacala and Socolow

## Slide 20

| Industry and technology | Magnitude of effort needed  to achieve 1 gtC emission reduction per year in 2054 |
| --- | --- |
|    Vehicles |  |
| Efficient cars | Increase from 30 mpg to 60 mpg (assuming 2 billion cars) |
| Use of cars | Reduce from 10,000 to 5000 miles per year per car (assuming 2 billion cars) |
| Biomass fuel instead of fossil fuel | Use 34 million bpd ethanol instead of fossil fuels (assuming fossil free production of ethanol) = 50 times current production |
| Wind generated hydrogen in fuel cell cars instead of gasoline in hybrid fuel cars | 4 million 1-MW windmills instead of high-efficiency coal |

## Slide 21

| Electricity and carbon capture & storage |  |
| --- | --- |
| Baseload coal plant efficiency (4) | 60% efficiency in coal-fired power plants producing 2 times current output |
| Gas baseload powerplants instead of coal (5) | Displace 1400 gigawatts of baseload coal with gas |
| Carbon dioxide capture & storage at baseload power plants (6) | Carbon capture & storage at 800 gigawatts at baseload coal plants (or 1600 gigawatts at gas baseload plants) |
| Carbon dioxide capture & storage from  hydrogen plants (7) | Capture carbon dioxide from producing 250 MtH2/year at coal plants (or 500 MtH2/year at gas plants) and use to displace consumption of fossil fuels at other plants (250MtH2 = 6 times current levels) |
| Carbon dioxide capture&storage from coal-to-synfuels plants (8) | Capture & store carbon dioxide from synfuels plants producing 30 million barrels per day, or  |

## Slide 22

| Photovoltaic power instead of coal (11) | 2000 gigawatts (= about 700 times current level of 3 gigawatts) instead of coal  |
| --- | --- |
| Nuclear power instead of coal (9) | 700 gigawatts of nuclear (= 2 times current, which would be achieved in 50 years by continuation of 1975-1990 rate of increase) |
| Wind power instead of coal (10)  | 2000 GW (2 million 1-MW wind turbines) (= 50 times current level of 40 gigawatts) instead of coal |

## Slide 23

| Other |  |
| --- | --- |
| Buildings: Increase efficiency (3) | One-fourth reduction of emissions from energy efficient space heating & cooling, water heating, lighting, refrigeration  |
| Forests: deforestation, reforestation, aforestation, new plantations (14) | For 3 half-wedges:
>reduce rate of  tropical forest clear-cutting by 100% instead of 50%; 
>reforestation/aforestation of 250 million hectares in tropics or 400 million hectares in temperate zones (in addition to 1500 and 700 million hectares, respectively)
>creation of 300 million hectares of plantations on nonforested land |
| Agriculture: Conservation tillage and other soil conservation practices (15) | For 1 half-wedge: Extend effective conservation practices to all 1600 million hectares of cropland (compared with current 110 million hectares) |

## Data Sources

- International comparative data are from surveys by Globscan and reported on
- _[www.worldpublicopinion.org](http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/)_.
- Question: “How serious a problem do you consider each of the following issues to be? Is it a very serious problem, somewhat serious problem, not very serious problem or not a serious problem at all? ... What about ... Climate change or global warming, due to the Greenhouse Effect?”

## Other Data Sources

- _ABC/Washington Post (June and September 2005):_
- ABC News, “Most Think Global Warming Has Begun, but Differ With Scientists on Urgency,”Analysis by John Cohen and Gary Langer, accessed from www.abcnews.go.com on November 9, 2005; Washington Post, “Beliefs About Climate Change Hold Steady,” accessed from www.washingtonpost.com on October 4, 2005.
- ABC News Press Release, “ABC News/Washington Post Poll: Hurricane Causes – 9/27/05,” accessed from www.abcnews.go.com on November 9, 2005.
- ABC News, “Most Say God Was Not Factor in Hurricanes,” Analysis by Dalia Sussman,” October 2, 2005, accessed from www.abcnews.go.com on November 9, 2005.
- ABC News, “Most Think Global Warming Has Begun, but Differ With Scientists on Urgency,” Analysis by John Cohen and Gary Langer, accessed from www.abcnews.go.com on November 9, 2005.
- Washington Post, “Beliefs About Climate Change Hold Steady,” accessed from www.washingtonpost.com on October 4, 2005.

- _Gallup (March 2006):_
- Lydia Saad, “Americans Still Not Concerned About Global Warming, Though record numbers say it’s happening now,” downloaded from www.poll.gallup.com on April 17, 2006.
- _Opinion Research Corporation (February 2006):_
- “Global Warming & Alternative Energy: A Leadership Survey,” downloaded from www.resultsforamerica.org on March 15, 2006.
- _ORCAS (2005)_ - Oak Ridge Center for Advanced Studies (2005): “ORCAS/Harris Interactive ® Survey of Public Perceptions,” downloaded from http://orcas.orau.org on October 14, 2005.
- _Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) - Sept. 2004 and June 2005:_
- “US citizens back action to curb greenhouse emissions,” by Scott Heiser. Washington, July 5, 2005. Downloaded from www.pipa.org on November 8, 2005.
- “Americans on Climate Change: 2005,” Steven Kull, Principal Investigator, July 5, 2005, downloaded from www.pipa.org on January 10, 2006.
- _Public Policy Institute of California (2004 and 2005): _
- “Special Survey on the Environment,” downloaded from www.ppic.org on January 9, 2006.

- _Time/ABC/Stanford Survey – March 2006:_
- “Intensity Spikes in Concern on Warming: Many See Change in Weather Patterns,” downloaded from www.abcnews.com on March 28, 2006.
**References for study of technologies:**
- Pacala, Stephen W., and Robert H. Socolo, 2004. “Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” *Science*, 305 (August 13): 968-972.
- Socolo, Robert H., and Stephen W. Pacala, 2006. “A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check,” *Scientific American, *September: 50-57.
**Recent, highly-recommended review of science, technology and economics:**
- Stern, Nicholas. 2006. *Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.* Available at _[http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm](http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm)_

## For More Information

- _brewert@georgetown.edu_
- _www.usclimatechange.com_