# Presentation: 611180

## WRF/Chem : Simultaneous prediction of weather and air quality

- Georg Grell
- Directly involved in WRF/CHEM development:
**Steven Peckham (NOAA/FSL), Rainer Schmitz (U. of Chile, IMK-IFU), and ** **Stu McKeen (NOAA/AL)**
***Many more national and international collaborators***

## Structure of talk

- Status of WRF/chem
- First shot at evaluation of WRFV2/Chem: Comparison of WRFV2 with WRFV1/chem, other models, and observations during NEAQS2004
- Future WRF/chem plans at FSL and WG11

**WORKING GROUP 11: ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY****  **** ****                                                                                                                     **

| Georg Grell (lead), NOAA/FSL
Peter Hess (lead), NCAR Carmen M. Benkovitz, Brookhaven National LabDaewon W. Byun, University of HoustonGreg Carmichael, University of IowaJohn McHenry, North Carolina |                                                                                         | Kenneth L. Schere, EPAPai-Yei, Whung, NOAAStu McKeen, NOAA/AL
Bill Skamarock NCARRainer Schmitz, University of Chile and IMK-IFU
Doug Westphal (NRL)
Jon Pleim, NOAA,ARL,EPA
Jerome Fast (PNNL)
Jeff McQueen (NCEP/NWS) |
| --- | --- | --- |

**Mission**
- The mission of the atmospheric chemistry working group is to guide the development of the capability to simulate chemistry and aerosols — online as well as offline — within the WRF model.  The resulting WRF-chem model will have the option to simulate the coupling between dynamics, radiation and chemistry. Uses include forecasting chemical-weather, testing air pollution abatement strategies, planning and forecasting for field campaigns, analyzing measurements from field campaigns and the assimilation of satellite and in-situ chemical measurements.
**Interaction with other WRF Groups**
- The initial development of WRF-chem is involved with the Numerics and Model Dynamics (_WG1__), Model Physics (WG11), and  Land Surface Modeling (__WG14__)._
- _Current Status of WRF/CHEM_
- _Model Evaluation_
- _Future Plans_
- _Real-time Air Quality Forecasts from WRF/CHEM_** **

*This page developed by *_Bill Moninger__ and __Randy Collander__.__Model questions should be directed to __Georg Grell__ and __Steve Peckham__._Last modified: Thursday July 24, 2003 05:31:06 PM

## WRF/chem (chemistry similar to MM5/chem )

- As of now: “Online”, sometimes also called “inline”
- Completely embedded within WRF CI
- Consistent: all transport done by meteorology model
- Same vertical and horizontal coordinates (no horizontal and vertical interpolation)
- Same physics parameterization for subgrid scale transport
- No interpolation in time
- Easy handling (Data management)
- Most efficient (overall CPU costs)

## Chemistry package - Transport

- WRF grid-scale transport of all species (currently mass core, mass and scalar conserving 5th order in space, 3rd order in time)
- a version of PPM (both positive definite and more efficient, but less accurate) is now also available within mass core
- Subgrid-scale transport by turbulence
- Subgrid-scale transport by convection

## Sub-grid transport

- PBL: MY2.5 mixing
- Soil/veg/snow: any available WRF routine

- Convective transport: based on new Grell/Devenyi ensemble scheme

## For tracer transport, the closure of the convective scheme is simply

- Parameterized rainfall rate from any of the WRF  convective parameterizations

##  An ensemble of feedback assumptions is used

**This makes it possible to tune the vertical redistribution of chemical species by subgrid-scale convection**

## Current Chemistry Package

- Dry deposition (coupled with soil/veg scheme, “flux-resistance” analogy)
- Wet deposition by convective parameterization
- Biogenic emissions (as in Simpson et al. 1995 and Guenther et al. 1994), include temperature and radiation dependent emissions of isoprene, monoterpenes, also nitrogen emissions by soil
- May be calculated “online” based on USGS landuse

## Current Chemistry Package

- Chemical mechanism from RADM2 (Quasi Steady State Approximation method with 22 diagnosed, 3 constant, and 38 (!) predicted species is used for the numerical solution), RACM  (60 !! predicted species or more) to be released soon
- Photolysis (Madronich), coupled with hydrometeors and aerosols

## Aerosols

- Based on Modal Aerosol Dynamics Model for Europe (MADE, Ackermann et al. 1998)
- Modified to include Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA), (Schell et al. 2001)
- Extra transport: total number of aerosol particles within each mode as well as all primary and secondary species for Aitken as well as Accumulation mode
- Diagnostic 3D variables: PM2.5, PM10, 3 variables for interaction with photolysis and atmospheric radiation

## MADE/SORGAM

- Modal representation: three modes (Aitken, Accumulation, Coarse), using log-normal distributions
- Inorganic chemistry based on MARS (Saxena et al. 1986)
- Organic chemistry based on SORGAM (Schell et al. 2001), anthropogenic and biogenic precursors are treated seperatly (for use with RADM2 chemistry biogenic precursors and their particle concentrations are set to zero, RACM will soon be tested)
- Dynamics include nucleation, condensational growth, and coagulation

## Aerosol/radiation feedback through three variables

- Dry scattering aerosol mass (organic and inorganic mass without soot)
- Dry absorbing aerosol mass, soot only
- Aerosol liquid water content
- Absorption of (3) so far neglected

***Needs Improvement***

## New Stuff for WRFV2 – Chemical Mechanism, Chemical Solver

- RACM chemistry with implicit Seulex solver
- Seulex solver generated using KPP (mass conserving)
- 73 species (49 transported species)
- 237 reactions
- Much better biogenics (important for SOA formation, also for Ozone)
- First step towards generalization (split of mechanism/ solver, KPP generation of solver)
- KPP offers adjoint generation

## Implementation of BEIS3 in WRFV2-Chem

**Implementation of BEIS3 in WRFV2-Chem**

- BELD3 1km gridded vegetation

- normbeis311

- Reference emission factors

- RADM/RACM
- speciation factors

**Off-line**

**On-line**

- Speciated reference emissions
- on WRF-Chem grid

- Based on EPA BEIS3 v11 for SMOKE processor

- RACM species emitted by BEIS3:
- ISO, API, LIM, XYL, ETH, HC3, ETE, OLT, OLI, HCHO, ALD, KET, ORA2, CO, NO

- WRF T, P, shortwave flux

- module_bioemi_beis311

- Speciated gridded emissions at each emissions timestep

## Example of WRF-Chem BEIS3 Processing

**Example of WRF-Chem BEIS3 Processing**
- 27 km grid, 040609 0Z forecast

- Reference Isoprene Emissions

- Isoprene Emissions on 040609 at 17Z

## Physics and Chemistry Interface Design

**  ****Plug compatible - few places to modify **
**      ****if adding scheme**
**  ****Model layer separated – no parallelization code **
**      ****in physics or chemistry**

**Physics and Chemistry Interface Design**

## Organization of chemistry within WRF

- Species advection

**Aerosols driver**

**Dry deposition driver**

-  **chemical mechanism driver**

**Biogenic emissions**

**anthropogenic emissions**

**Solve interface**

**chemistry Driver**

** ****Option**

**Organization of chemistry within WRF**

- Chemistry_driver

**Convective transport**

**Photolysis driver**

**Solve_int**

**Solve Met**

## Lined up for inclusion in the WRFV2/chem repository (coming very very soon)

- YSU PBL scheme (PNNL)
- RACM
- New advection scheme (version of PPM, NCAR)
- CBMZ Chemical mechanism (PNNL)
- MOSAIC sectional aerosol module (with 4 or 8 bins, PNNL)
- FAST-J photolysis routine (PNNL)

## Coming Soon

- SMOKE emissions Model (BAMS)
- More aerosol modules, two upgrades to MADE/SORGAM (BAMS, Germany)
- Fast Ozone solver (no aerosols for this one, CHILE)
- More chemical mechanisms (NCAR, Chile)
- Offline version (CDAC in India)
- Simple cloud oxidation scheme (NCAR and AL)
- Plume rise subroutine (AL)
- Photolysis routines from NCAR
- NCEP’s NMM core (for met)

## Coming not so soon

- More sectional aerosol choices (EPA/ARL, NCSU)
- Coupling aerosols/microphysics (NCAR, PNNL)
- More chemical mechanisms (NCSU, EPA/ARL, NCAR)
- Aqueous phase chemistry (NCAR)
- More radiation schemes that include aerosols interactions (PNNL)
- Data assimilation (U IOWA)

## How to look at model output?

- RIP (developed at U of Washington for MM5 and WRF, uses NCAR graphics)
- VIS5D
- FX-Net (for real-time forecasting, based on NWS AWIPS workstations)

## FX-Net User Interface

-   Imitates the AWIPS
-    User Interface
-   Functionality:
-  -  Load
-  -  Animation
-  -  Overlay/Toggle
-  -  Zoom
-  -  Swap

## FX-net is now completed

## How do you get chemical input conditions?

- No 3-d observations available
- Most species are not even available on surface
-                                 ????

## Chemical model input – the solution

- You forecast your initial fields (works reasonable well since chemistry is very dependent on emissions input data)
- You keep your boundary conditions constant, except during outflow

- There may be a need for data assimilation systems to be developed in the near future to make use of the ever increasing amount of Satellite data.
-  3dvar, 4dvar, OSSE’s?

## More on chemical model input

- Anthropogenic emissions data are very important for model simulations
- Yet they are highly uncertain!! In some instances they have been off by an order of magnitude!

**Both, 3DVAR and 4DVAR can be used to nail down emissions better, also ensemble forecasts may have a large roll in the future!!**

## Possible applications of current modeling system

- Prediction and simulation of weather, or regional or local climate
- Coupled weather prediction/dispersion model to simulate release and transport of constituents
- Coupled weather/dispersion/air quality model with full interaction of chemical species with prediction of O3, UV radiation, as well as PM

## 

NEAQS 2004: WRFV2/Chem, WRFV1/chem, also 5 other AQ forecast models, Ozone and PM

- NEAQS 2004: WRFV2/Chem, WRFV1/chem, also 5 other AQ forecast models, Ozone and PM

## WRFV2/chem evaluation has started

- NEAQS2004 field experiment
- WRFV2/Chem was run with 27km and 12km horizontal resolution, WRFV1/Chem with 27km
- 7 models were used to produce ensemble forecast
- Aircraft, Radiosondes, Boundary layer profilers, and other observations will allow verification and evaluation in 3d

## Simulation Domains during July and August

- D01
- 110x135x35@ 27 km horiz. res.
- WRFV1/Chem and WRFV2/Chem

## Available model forecasts

- WRFV1/Chem – 36hr runs twice daily (very reliable, has been running for almost 2 years)
- WRFV2/Chem27km – 72 hour simulations at 00z, 60hr simulations at 12z
- WRFV2/Chem12km – 36 hour twice daily
*Both WRFV2 runs had a significant amount of misses (switch from V1 to V2 happened just before the beginning of the experiment), these holes were filled after the experiment*

- All evaluations are for WRFV1 and WRFV2-27km

## Model Input

- RUC20 3dvar analysis, including cloud analysis
- ETA forecasts for boundary conditions
- 12-hr forecasts for chemical fields

## Real-time Model Configuration

- _ __Scheme         _ _
- Advection
- Microphysics
- Longwave rad.
- Shortwave rad.
- Surface layer
- Land-surface
- PBL scheme
- Cumulus
- Photolysis
- Chemistry
- Aerosols
- Biogenics
- Anthropogenic emissions

- _ __WRFV1-Chem        __
- 5th horiz. / 3rd vert.
- NCEP 5-class ice
- RRTM
- Dudhia
- Monin-Obukhov (Eta)
- OSU
- M.-Y.-J. 2.5 TKE (Eta)
- B.-M.-J.
- Madronich (1987)
- RADM2
- MADE/SORGAM
- USGS based
- 96

## Real-time Model Configuration

- _ __Scheme         _ _
- Advection
- Microphysics
- Longwave rad.
- Shortwave rad.
- Surface layer
- Land-surface
- PBL scheme
- Cumulus
- Photolysis
- Chemistry
- Aerosols
- Biogenics
- Anthropogenic  emissions

- _ __WRFV2-Chem        __
- 5th horiz. / 3rd vert.
- NCEP 5-class ice
- RRTM
- Dudhia
- Monin-Obukhov (Eta)
- RUC-LSM
- M.-Y.-J. 2.5 TKE (Eta)
- Grell-Devenyi ensemble
- Madronich (1987)
- RADM2
- MADE/SORGAM
- Beis3
- 99

## Ozone monitors

**Ozone monitors**

**Distribution of 8hr max Ozone values (observed)**

## Bias

**Bias**

**WRFV2/chem**

**WRFV1/chem**

**r**

**RMSE**

**Ozone – 8hr average comparison**

## Statistics for 8 Air Quality Forecast Modelswith 342 AIRNOW O3 monitors(7/6/04 through 7/29/04 - 24 days)

- Statistics for maximum 8-hr averages, based on 00Z forecasts only.
- Medians of 342 monitor comparisons

| Institute, model, horiz. resolution | r
coefficent | Mean
bias | RMSE |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NOAA FSL, WRF/Chem-1, 27km | 0.66 | 14.4 ppb | 20.8 ppb |
| NOAA FSL, WRF/Chem-2, 27km | 0.65 | 3.5 ppb | 12.4 ppb |
| Baron AMS, MAQSIP, 15km | 0.64 | 2.9  ppb | 10.6 ppb |
| Baron AMS, MAQSIP, 45km | 0.62 | 4.5 ppb | 11.4 ppb |
| MSC Canada, CHRONOS, 21km | 0.62 | 18.6 ppb | 24.0 ppb |
| NWS/NCEP, CMAQ/ETA, 12km | 0.53 | 9.3 ppb | 14.9 ppb |
| U of Iowa, STEM, 12km | 0.52 | 25.3 ppb | 29.6 ppb |
| MSC Canada, AURAMS, 42km | 0.45 | 7.1 ppb | 16.4 ppb |

## PM2.5 comparison model domains

## PM stations

**Obs (ug/m3)**

**PM stations**

## PM2.5

**PM2.5**

**WRFV2/chem**

**WRFV1/chem**

## Ensemble average

- Stem2

## Slide 44

## Sorted r-correlations

## Diurnal Variations

## Evaluation – quick and dirty Summary

- WRFV2/chem appears to be outperforming WRFV1/chem (for correlations, and especially for Bias and RMSE)
- PM2.5 comparisons to surface stations at least as good as ozone comparison
- WRFV2/Chem also looks good in comparison to all other models for ozone as well as PM forecasts
- This evaluation is only “first look”, early results from comparison to aircraft data already indicate other shortcomings
- 3d and met-evaluation still forthcoming
- Ensemble forecasts show best performance

## WRF/chem – Current Work at NOAA/FSL

- Completing verification runs with Summer of 2004 data and assisting AL with evaluation
- New advection routine
- Online/offline
- Other new repository additions (sectional aerosol, PBL, other chemical mechanisms)
- NMM core
- Add new modules into repository
- Real-time runs will continue
- Our scientists will work with scientists around the country and the world to implement further improvements

## Current and future work

- Data assimilation, 3dvar versus fdda, 4dvar, enembles
- Anthropogenic and biogenic emissions
- Aqueous phase chemistry coupled to microphysics/aerosols
- Applications (LES, MIRAGE, Latin America)

## Current and future work

- Much work with aerosols in country and world
- Evaluation of current module
- Working with various improved versions of current module
- Implementing new, different approaches
- Radiation feedback to meteorology
- Microphysics feedback
- Much work with chemical mechanisms
- More flexible mechanisms
- More separation of time solver
- Speed ( maybe less accurate, but maybe sufficient for forecasting)
- Anti-speed (better and more accurate chemistry)

## Current collaborations outside of NOAA

- NCAR (WRFV2, Repository, further developments on photolysis scheme, chemical mechanisms, biogenic emissions
- PNNL (various aspects of WRF/Chem)
- IMK-IFU, and University of Chile (RACM mechanism, Rosenbrock solver for chemistry, aerosols)
- CDAC in India (offline version of WRF/Chem)
- CPTEC in Brazil (convective transport, wet deposition