# Presentation: 846097

## Fire Weather Customer Meeting

- December 13th 2006

## Outline

- Verification statistics - Brent
- Red Flag/Fire Weather Watch
- PFW product - Brent
- Spot weather forecasts & feedback - Brent
- Statistics
- Feedback
- Example
- Ventilation Requests
- Thunderstorm winds
- Seasonal Long Range Forecast – Charlie
- Open floor

## Verification statistics

**RFW product**

## Red Flag Warning 2006

- Zones Warned: 195 (Up 129 from ‘05)
- Total Zones Occurred: 146 (Up 107 from ‘05)
- Warned Zones Verified: 140
- Warned Zones didn’t Verify: 48
- No warning issued/Zones Missed: 6
- POD (Prob of Detection): 0.96 (1.0 ‘05)
- FAR (False Alarm Rate): 0.28 (0.41 ‘05)
- CSI (Critical Success Index): 0.70 (0.59 ‘05)
- Average Lead Time: 9.5 hrs (5.4 hrs ‘05)

## Slide 5

## Slide 6

## Slide 7

## Fire Weather Watch 2006

- Zones Watch: 173 (Up 125 from ‘05)
- Total Zones Occurred: 146 (Up 107 from ‘05)
- Watch Zones Verified: 114
- Watch Zones didn’t Verify: 59
- No watch issued/Zones Missed: 22
- POD (Prob of Detection): 0.78 (0.64 ‘05)
- FAR (False Alarm Rate): 0.34 (0.44 ‘05)
- CSI (Critical Success Index): 0.56 (0.43 ‘05)
- Average Lead Time: 26.5 hrs (16.3 hrs ‘05)

## Slide 9

## Slide 10

## Slide 11

## PFW Product

## What is the PFW?

- Point forecast matrix
- Tabular weather forecast with several weather variables
- i.e Temp, RH, Wind, Haines Index etc
- Issuance times
- Fire Weather: 8 am and 330 pm
- Aviation sites: 4 am and 4 pm
- All year round

## What is it?

- Temporal Resolution
- Every 3 hours through ~ 60 hours
- Every 6 hours from 60 hr to 7 days out
- Spatial Resolution
- 2.5 km2 grid box
- Weather station contained in grid box

** ****~ 2.4 mi2 grid box→**

**Notes:**
Fire weather text forecasts come from grids. 

## How do you access it?

**How do you access it?**

**←**_[Click on site](file:///PFW_JaritaMesa.txt)_

## Useful?

- Planning tool
- Meet prescription objectives
- Efficient use of workforce
- Adds more Ventilation sites
- Adjust numbers based on Grid Box elevation
- PFW tends to come out earlier than Planning Forecast
- Falls out of our grid forecasts
- Product not edited
- Planning not so much tactical

## Spot Weather forecast & feedback

## Slide 18

## Slide 19

## Turn around time

- Subtract requested time from forecast complete time

- Avg: 30 minutes

- Avg: 31 minutes

- Avg: 35 minutes

- Avg:  33 minutes

**AOP**

## Slide 22

## Slide 23

## Slide 24

## Statistics 2006 Areawide

|  | Spots Requested | Prescribed Burn Feed. | Wildfire Feedback | # Wildfires |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| January | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| February | 33 | 12 | 0 | 4 |
| March | 52 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| April | 44 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| May | 88 | 6 | 1 | 76 |
| June | 134 | 0 | 0 | 128 |
| July | 105 | 5 | 1 | 75 |
| August | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| September | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| October | 20 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| November | 65 | 29 | 0 | 0 |

## Types of Weather Feedback

**Feedback****↓Button**

## Following Requests ↑

**Following Requests ****↑**

**Remarks Box**

## Remarks Section Initial Request

**Remarks Section Initial Request**

## Faxed Fire line observations

**Faxed Fire line observations**

## Slide 30

## Example: Spot request and feedback use (multi-day) event

- Lajara prescribed burn
- September 26th to October 4th 2006
- Jicarilla
- Feedback
- Used remarks section
- Used permanent RAWS
- Stone Lake

## Initial Forecast

**Make sure to make note in Remarks each spot request**

## Another reminder

- Choose the elements and time period you need.

## Forecast vs Station reality

|  | Fcst RH | RH | Fcst T | T | Solar |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 26th | 17-21% | 19% | NA | NA | 537 |
| 27th | 15-17% | 16% | 74-77° | 71° | 534 |
| 29th | 15-16% | 16% | 72-73° | 74° | 531 |
| 30th | 14-15% | 15% | 75-76° | 72° | 525 |
| 2nd | 17-20% | 20% | 71-73° | 75° | 436 |
| 3rd | 22-24% | 29% | 74-76° | 70° | 276 |
| 4th | 29-32% | 20% | 69-71° | 74° | 362 |

## Slide 35

|  | 26th | 27th | 29th | 30th | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Fcst Wind After-noon | W/NW 8-11 mph. Ocnl gusts mid teens ~ 20 mph.  | NW 10-15 mph. Ocnl gusts 18-25 mph. | W...NW later 9-12 mph. Gusts 17-25 mph.  | Westerly 5-7 mph.
Ocnl gusts 11-15 mph.  | W/SW 6-8 mph. Ocnl gusts 13-16 mph.  | Westerly 5-10 mph. Ocnl gusts 13-19 mph.  | S/SW 8-11 mph. Ocnl gusts 14-21 mph.  |
| Wind | W/NW 7-13 mph. Gusts 12-24 mph.  | W/NW 6-12 mph. Gusts 14-21 mph. | SW-W then NW 4-8 mph. Gusts 
7-16 mph. | SW/W 4-7 mph. Gusts 11-15 mph.  | SW/W 3-8 mph. Gusts 9-18 mph.  | W/NW 5-9 mph. Gusts 14-17 mph | S/SW 6-9 mph. Gusts 12-17 mph.  |

## Feedback Remarks Section

**September 26th**

**September 29th**

## Feedback Remarks Section

**Feedback Remarks Section**

**September 30th**

**October 3rd**

## What does the example show?

- Feedback good!
- Use of permanent RAWS and Remarks section
- Forecasts fairly accurate
- Customer only requested what they needed
- Turn around times in getting the forecast out...
- 20 to 30 minutes

## Ventilation Requests

**Reminder**

## Ventilation Request reminder: Operating plan policy

## Good example: downwind receptor

**Good example: downwind receptor**

**Reference Point Jemez RAWS→**

## Thunderstorm wind statement

- Generic statement
- Location within Spot?
- Effective content/verbiage?

## First example

- Use of headline
- When thunderstorms forecasted

## Second example

- Statement appended to wind section
- When thunderstorms forecasted

## Third example

- Statement appended to wind section
- When thunderstorms forecasted

## Fourth example

- Canned statement inserted at bottom
- All-year round

## Open Floor

**Questions/Comments/Suggestions**

## End

- November 14th 2006