# Presentation: 697412

## NASA / USGSInvasive Species Project

- John L. Schnase
*NASA Goddard Space Flight Center*
*Greenbelt, Maryland*
- Project Team Retreat
- Patuxent Wildlife Center
- 13-14 November 2003

## Meeting Overview

- Welcome and Introductions
- Agenda and Logistics
- Speakers and schedule
- Lunch and breaks
- Day one and day two
- Goals and Expected Outcomes
- Meet new team members and see where things stand
- Develop high-level plan for 2004
- Report to NASA and USGS program managers

## Project Overview

- In the beginning ...
- FY/CY ‘04 Transition *
- Political landscape
- Funding portfolio
- Organization
- System
- Highlights
- Coherence, Excellence, Productivity
- The “Big Problem” Challenge
- Outreach and Communication

## Invasive SpeciesA Top Environmental Issue of the 21st Century ...

- Economic Costs:
*$137+ Billion / Yr*
*	**(Pimentel, et al. 1999; NISRC Management Plan, 2001)*
- Environmental Costs:
*Decreased biodiversity, ecological services, etc.*
- Human-Health Costs:
*West Nile Virus, Malaria, etc.*
- Agricultural Costs:
*Crop pathogens, hoof-and-mouth, mad cow disease*

- Notorious examples include:
*Dutch elm disease, chestnut blight, and purple loosestrife in the northeast; kudzu, Brazilian peppertree, water hyacinth, nutria, and fire ants in the southeast; zebra mussels, leafy spurge, and Asian long-horn beetles in the Midwest; salt cedar, Russian olive, and Africanized bees in the southwest; yellow star thistle, European wild oats, oak wilt disease, Asian clams, and white pine blister rust in California; cheatgrass, various knapweeds and thistles in the Great Basin; whirling disease of salmonids in the northwest; hundreds of invasive species from microbes to mammals in Hawaii; and the brown tree snake in Guam.*
*As many as 50,000 now,**hundreds new each year ...*

## Federal GovernmentResponse

- National Invasive Species Council (EO 13122 - 1999)
*Co-Chaired by Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, and Interior*
- _USGS_ has a lead role in dealing with invasive species _science_ in natural and semi-natural areas
*Responsible for measurement, management, and control on all Department of Interior and adjacent lands ...*

## USGS National Institute of Invasive Species Science

- USGS Biological Resources Division (BRD) laboratory
- Located at USGS’s Ft. Collins Science Center
- New facilities opened Aug ‘02
- Director, Tom Stohlgren
- Many current / future partners ...

**“****Needed: A National Center For Biological Invasions”**
**	****Don Schmitz and Dan Simberloff**
***	******Issues in Science and Technology*****, Summer 2001**

**“****Grand Challenge: Biodiversity and Ecosystem ****	****	****Functioning” with special emphasis on invasive species ...**
**	*****NRC Committee on Grand Challenges in******	******Environmental Sciences*****, 2001**

## USGS Science / Client Needs

- On-demand, predictive landscape- and regional-scale models and maps for biological invasions
*Pick any point, land management unit, county, state, or region and determine the current invasion, and vulnerability to future invasion by species.*
*Pick any species or group of species, and get current distributions, potential distributions, potential rates of change, and levels of uncertainty.*
- Data integration and sharing
*Comprehensive information on control efforts and cost. Share early detection data, control strategies, local expertise. Help public and private land managers*.

## National Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) *

- NASA / USGS Partnership
- Chip Groat, Kathie Olsen early promoters
- Goal: Develop an operational DSS   capability for USGS & DOI
- Research & topic adopted by YO ...
*Carbon Cycle Science Applications Program*
*	**Predicting Regional-Scale Exotic Plant Invasions in Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument **(NASA YS/YO NRA - Schnase, Smith, & Stohlgren)*
*ESTO/Computational Technologies Program*
- 	*Biotic Prediction: Building the Computational Technology Infrastructure for Public Health and Environmental Forecasting **(NASA YS CAN - Schnase, Smith, & Stohlgren)*
*** Ref. EOM Article / NRC Report / *****http://ct.gsfc.nasa.gov/milestones.schnase.html***

## USGS Predictive Modeling

**Hot spots of native**
**biodiversity**
**Distribution of**
**non-native species**
**Potential spread of**
**invasive species.**
**Barriers to rapid invasions.**
** **
**Corridors that may accelerate invasions.**
**Economic and environmental risk assessments, vulnerability of habitats to invasion.**
**Priorities for control and containment.**

_**Output**_
- GIS - Spatial
- Statistical Dynamic
- Models and Maps

- Final Trend
- Surface Map
- Large - Small
- Scale Variability

- Model Residuals
- Using Co-Kriging

- Model Residuals
- Using * ***Kriging ****
- (Universal,
- Ordinary, other)

- Regression
- Trees
- Classifications

- Testing if Residuals
- Cross-Correlated with
- Other Variables

- Testing if There Is
- Spatial Auto-Correlation
- In the Residuals

- Trend Surface Analysis
- With Stepwise Multiple
- Regression Using
- OLS, GLS, SAR, or * ***Exhaustive Regression ****

- Yes

- No

- No

_**Input Variables**_** (150+)**
**Remotely Sensed data:**
**(ETM, SPOT, MTI, EO1, etc.)**
**Derived Remote Sensing**
**(Vegetation Indices, PCA**
**Tasseled Cap, other)**
**Biotic/Abiotic Data:**
**Topographic Data**
**Species Data**
**Vegetation- Forest Data**
**Soils Characteristics**
**Cryptobiotic Crusts**
**Wildfire Severity**
**Biodiversity**
**Air Pollution**
**Geology, Other**
**Environmental Data**

- Yes

- Yes

**USGS Predictive Modeling**

**Notes:**
USGS is using geostatistical techniques to produce predictive maps of hotspots for potential invasion.

The process ingests a wide range of ecological attributes, field sample data and satellite data. Linear regression and trend surface analyses with kriging are performed to produce DSS products that account for high-resolution spatial distributions in the environments being modeled.

NASA is helping USGS deal with the computational bottlenecks in this process. (shown in red). NASA is also helping move the USGS modeling process into an easy-to-use, Web-based framework so that the techniques are more accessible to the broader community. (shown in yellow) 

We refer to the integrated system as the Invasive Species Forecasting System.

## USGS Predictive Modeling

**Hot spots of native**
**biodiversity**
**Distribution of**
**non-native species**
**Potential spread of**
**invasive species.**
**Barriers to rapid invasions.**
** **
**Corridors that may accelerate invasions.**
**Economic and environmental risk assessments, vulnerability of habitats to invasion.**
**Priorities for control and containment.**

_**Output**_
- GIS - Spatial
- Statistical Dynamic
- Models and Maps

- Final Trend
- Surface Map
- Large - Small
- Scale Variability

- Model Residuals
- Using Co-Kriging

- Model Residuals
- Using * ***Kriging ****
- (Universal,
- Ordinary, other)

- Regression
- Trees
- Classifications

- Testing if Residuals
- Cross-Correlated with
- Other Variables

- Testing if There Is
- Spatial Auto-Correlation
- In the Residuals

- Trend Surface Analysis
- With Stepwise Multiple
- Regression Using
- OLS, GLS, SAR, or * ***Exhaustive Regression ****

- Yes

- No

- No

_**Input Variables**_** (150+)**
**Remotely Sensed data:**
**(ETM, SPOT, MTI, EO1, etc.)**
**Derived Remote Sensing**
**(Vegetation Indices, PCA**
**Tasseled Cap, other)**
**Biotic/Abiotic Data:**
**Topographic Data**
**Species Data**
**Vegetation- Forest Data**
**Soils Characteristics**
**Cryptobiotic Crusts**
**Wildfire Severity**
**Biodiversity**
**Air Pollution**
**Geology, Other**
**Environmental Data**

- Yes

- Yes

**DSS****Products**

**Modeling**

**Ingest**

**USGS Predictive Modeling**

**Notes:**
USGS is using geostatistical techniques to produce predictive maps of hotspots for potential invasion.

The process ingests a wide range of ecological attributes, field sample data and satellite data. Linear regression and trend surface analyses with kriging are performed to produce DSS products that account for high-resolution spatial distributions in the environments being modeled.

NASA is helping USGS deal with the computational bottlenecks in this process. (shown in red). NASA is also helping move the USGS modeling process into an easy-to-use, Web-based framework so that the techniques are more accessible to the broader community. (shown in yellow) 

We refer to the integrated system as the Invasive Species Forecasting System.

## ISFS Architecture

## Project Overview

- In the beginning ...
- FY/CY ‘04 Transition
- Political landscape
- Funding portfolio
- Organization
- System
- Highlights
- Coherence, Excellence, Productivity
- The “Big Problem” Challenge
- Outreach and Communication

## Slide 13

## Decision Support Systems

**Aviation Safety: AWIN**

**CCRI: Carbon Management DSS**

**Energy Forecasting: NREL DSS**

**Public Health: RSVP**

**Homeland Security:****OHS Situation Center**

**Disaster Preparedness:****HAZUS**

## Decision Support Systems

**Invasive Species:****NIISS/NBII DSS**

**Coastal Management:****HAB Forecast**

**Air Quality:****CMAQ/Models-3**

**Community Growth:****Urban Growth DSS**

**Water Management:****AWARDS**

**Agricultural:****FAS Forecast**

## Funding(Then)

*Predicting Regional-Scale Exotic Plant Invasions in Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument*
- Schnase, NASA Carbon NRA, 10/01-9/04
*Biotic Prediction: Building the Computational Technology Infrastructure for Public Health and Environmental Forecasting*
- Schnase, NASA ESTO/CT CAN, 2/02-2/05

## Funding(Now)

*The Invasive Specie Data Service: Towards Operational Use of ESE Data in the USGS Invasive Species Decision Support System*
- Schnase, NASA REASoN CAN, 12/03-12/08
*Fingerprinting Native and Non-Native Biodiversity in the United States - Phase I: The Western US*
- Stohlgren, NASA IDS NRA, 12/03-12/06
*The Distribution and Abundance of Bird Species: Towards a Satellite, Data-Driven Avian Energetics and Species Richness Model*
- Smith, NASA IDS NRA, 12/03-12/06

## Funding(Now)

*Science on the Semantic Web: Prototypes in Bioinformatics*
- Finin, NSF ITR, 12/03-12/08
*Value Added Products from MODIS Time-Series Data Sets to Support DOI/USGS Invasive Species Management **
- Morisette, NASA EOS NRA, 12/03-12/06
*Cooperative Tamarisk Mapping Initiative **
- Stohlgren, USGS, 3/04-3/07
** in review ...*

## Science Activity
Rob Baker 
Mohammed Kahlkan
Jeff Morisette
Jeff Pedelty

- Rob Baker
- Mohammed Kahlkan
- Jeff Morisette
- Jeff Pedelty

- _Engineering Activity_
- Rob Baker
- John Dorband
- David Kendig
- Nick Pell *
- Curt Tilmes

- _Communications Activity_
- Rob Baker
- David Kendig
- Nick Pell *

- John Schnase
- Jim Smith, Tom Stohlgren

**Organization**(Then)

## Organization (Now)

- _Science Team_
- Jeff Morisette
- Catherine Crosier
- Kristin Eickhorst
- Mohammed Kahlkan
- John Madsen
- Jeff Pedelty
- Robin Reich
- Asad Ullah

- _Engineering Team_
- David Kendig
- Lori Bruce
- John Dorband
- Jim Graham
- Jacqueline LeMoigne
- Nargess Memarsadeghi
- Robin Pfister
- Curt Tilmes
- Keith Wichman
- TBD

- _Communications Team_
- Rob Baker
- Jim Closs
- TBD

- John Schnase
- Jim Smith, Tom Stohlgren
- Neal Most

## System Evolution

- Solve the BIO/ESE data integration problem ...

***Invasive Species Data Service***

**Notes:**
Significant infrastructure improvements needed for data ingest.

Analysis of invasive species problems requires the integration of widely disparate datasets. The Earth Science Enterprise, through its system of DAACs,  ESIPs, etc. has grown up separate from some of the major biological information infrastructures, such as NBII (National Biological Information Infrastucture), the LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research sites), state natural history programs, etc. In order to have an effective national invasive species forecasting capability we need to solve the BIO/ESE data integration problem ...

## System Evolution

- Move towards a web services paradigm ...

***Invasive Species Forecasting System***

**Notes:**
Significant infrastructure improvements needed for data ingest.

Analysis of invasive species problems requires the integration of widely disparate datasets. The Earth Science Enterprise, through its system of DAACs,  ESIPs, etc. has grown up separate from some of the major biological information infrastructures, such as NBII (National Biological Information Infrastucture), the LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research sites), state natural history programs, etc. In order to have an effective national invasive species forecasting capability we need to solve the BIO/ESE data integration problem ...

## Project Overview

- In the beginning ...
- FY/CY ‘04 Transition
- Political landscape
- Funding portfolio
- Organization
- System
- Highlights
- Coherence, Excellence, Productivity
- The “Big Problem” Challenge
- Outreach and Communication

## Public Interface & Prototype

***InvasiveSpecies.gsfc.nasa.gov***

**Notes:**
The Invasive Species Forecasting System is being made available to the extended community through the National Biological Information Infrastructure program and “InvasiveSpecies.gov” .

## MODIS NDVI Time SeriesCerro Grande Fire Site(Spring 2000 – Spring 2002)

**Analysis by:**
**Jeff Morisette & Jeff Pedelty**
***NASA Goddard Space Flight Center***

**Notes:**
Another recent result using MODIS time series data ...

Phenology (the timing of vegetation events) is an important driver for many invasive species. We have started using MODIS NDVI time series data in the USGS predictive models to improve accuracy and precision. 

Plot shows the complete two-year series of 8-day composite NDVI over the Cerro Grande study site. Basic summary statistics for the time series (average, amplitude, phase) significantly reduce the statistical uncertainty of current approaches. Points to the value of high-resolution temporal data for some invasive species applications. “Temporal signatures” for some invasives likely and currently the focus of current efforts.

## MODIS NDVI Time SeriesCerro Grande Fire Site(Spring 2000 – Spring 2002)

**Red:****	****Average**
**Green:****	****Amplitude**
**Blue:****	****Phase Shift**

**Analysis by:**
**Jeff Morisette & Jeff Pedelty**
***NASA Goddard Space Flight Center***

**Notes:**
Animation shows MODIS NDVI time series over the Cerro Grande Wildfire site in Los Alamos, New Mexico. Demonstrates the MODIS-derived spatiotemporal variability of NDVI of critical importance to many invasive species.

The RGB image statically portrays the time series summary statistics. Reveals reach temporal structure over the study area.

These are examples of new types parameters, derived from new NASA datasets,  that that can be used in a wide range of models.

## Parallel Kriging

**Analysis by:**
**Jeff Pedelty & Jeff Morisette**
***NASA Goddard Space Flight Center***

**Goal: **
**75% scaling efficiency **
**on 200+ node cluster ...**

**http://ct.gsfc.nasa.gov/milestones.schnase.html**

**Notes:**
Example of how improved computational performance is changing invasive species science.

First plot: When we first started working with USGS, a single-processor run of their model for the Cerro Grande Fire Site (Los Alamos, NM) took 70,000 minutes (~45 days).

Our goal working the ESTO/Computational Technologies Program, is to develop parallel algorithms that have a 75% scaling efficiency on commodity cluster computers of any size.

Second plot: Same data, same study plot using parallel code running on 32 processors now takes less than 5 minutes. It is now possible to scale the modeling process to larger study areas, ingest more data, and to do iterative, interactive “what-if”scenarios. Changes the way scientists do their work and think about their problems ...

## Future DirectionsExpand Operational Context: Organizations

- US Department of Agriculture
- National Science Foundation
- Mississippi State University
- University of Maine
- University of Alabama
- ECHO / EOSDIS
- MODApps / OMI

**Notes:**
Context diagram for the Invasive Species Forecasting System

It occupies a niche situated between organizations, functions, and data. 

Future work can broaden the influence and impact of the ISFS by expanding to other organizations.

## Saltcedar(Tamarisk spp.)

- Another classic example ...
*Arrived in N. America from Middle East in early 19th Century *
*By 1850 had escaped into river systems of the Southwest; by 1938 could be found from Florida to California to Idaho*
- Biology
*Large shrub, produces thousands for flowers and 10^5 tufted seeds per year, which can germinate within 24hrs of dispersal, even on water, and has an extensive root system ...*

## Saltcedar(Tamarix spp.)

- Ecology
*Water-loving plant*
*200+ gallons per day*
*9+ acre-feet of water for every area of infestation*
*15,000+ cubic yards of water per acre of infested land*
- Impact on ecosystem processes
*Total water flow along infested river systems can be eliminated*
*High densities along rivers cause flooding*
*Associated with other potentially unpredictable and cascading effects ...*

## Saltcedar(Tamarix spp.)

## Saltcedar(Tamarix spp.)

## Saltcedar(Tamarix spp.)

## Saltcedar(Tamarix spp.)

## NASA / USGSInvasive Species Project

- John L. Schnase
*NASA Goddard Space Flight Center*
*Greenbelt, Maryland*
- Project Team Retreat
- Patuxent Wildlife Center
- 13-14 November 2003

## Funding(Then)

*Predicting Regional-Scale Exotic Plant Invasions in Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument*
- Schnase, NASA Carbon NRA, 10/01-9/04, $715K
*Biotic Prediction: Building the Computational Technology Infrastructure for Public Health and Environmental Forecasting*
- Schnase, NASA ESTO/CT CAN, 2/02-2/05, $1.1M

## Funding(Now)

*The Invasive Specie Data Service: Towards Operational Use of ESE Data in the USGS Invasive Species Decision Support System*
- Schnase, NASA REASoN CAN, 12/03-12/08, $3.1M
*Fingerprinting Native and Non-Native Biodiversity in the United States - Phase I: The Western US*
- Stohlgren, NASA IDS NRA, 12/03-12/06, $1.2M
*The Distribution and Abundance of Bird Species: Towards a Satellite, Data-Driven Avian Energetics and Species Richness Model*
- Smith, NASA IDS NRA, 12/03-12/06, $250K

## Funding(Now)

*Science on the Semantic Web: Prototypes in Bioinformatics*
- Finin, NSF ITR, 12/03-12/08, $2.6M
*Value Added Products from MODIS Time-Series Data Sets to Support DOI/USGS Invasive Species Management **
- Morisette, NASA EOS NRA, 12/03-12/06, $675K
*Cooperative Tamarisk Mapping Initiative **
- Stohlgren, USGS, 3/04-3/07, $1.2M
** in review ...*