# Presentation: 661523

## A RECONFIGURED ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE PROGRAM

- E. W. Bierly

## WHAT ARE WE DOING ? 

- Reconfiguring the atmospheric chemistry and environmental meteorology programs into an  aerosol program that addresses radiative forcing in the atmosphere
- Give guidance to BER and Office of Science

- E. W. Bierly

## WHY DO THIS ?

- DOE Participates in the CCSP
- Composed of CCSI and USGCRP
- Strategic Plan now available for the CCSP
- Subcommittee on Global Change Research
- OMB rep wanted status of aerosol research
- Aerosol research growing in importance
- Concerned that uncertainties associated with aerosols not been addressed adequately
- DOE Volunteered to Look into the Problem
- Reconfigured ASP in the result

- E. W. Bierly

## WHY THE NAME RECONFIGURED?

- If the program were identified as a new program, it would be zeroed out of the budget by OMB
- Truthfully, the reconfigured program does address many subjects that were supported in the previous ASP.
- Done to preserve funding level.

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
The funding level is roughly $10.0 M

## A RECONGIGURED ASP

- Research that emphasizes radiative forcing from natural and anthropogenic aerosols
- Results used to provide input into climate models with a goal of reducing uncertainty in model output

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
The issue of uncertainties is quite large. It is one of the issues raised by the Administration when they asked the NAS/NRC to look at climate change several years ago. They found that if uncertainty can be reduced, forecasts and guidance will be vastly improved. These are difficult issues or they would already have been not only addressed, but solved.

## WHAT ARE AEROSOLS ? 

- A System of colloidal particles dispersed in a gas
- Natural Occurring – volcanic particles and sea salt
- Anthropogenic – soot and smoke

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
The issues of aerosols and in particular their involvement with clouds is a problem that now has a high priority. The Strategic Plan of the CCSP points this out in several places.  Chapter 3 and Goal #2 are two places where it is discussed.

## WHY ARE AEROSOLS IMPORTANT ?

- Aerosol forcing appears to be of the same magnitude as the effect of Greenhouse Gases, but much more uncertain
- Forcing is Direct and Indirect
- Direct effects better understood
- Indirect effects largely anecdotal

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
Perhaps aerosols are part of the reason why radiatively active gases like CO2 from warming the atmosphere like the physics of the situation calls for.

## CHARGE TO THE PANEL

- Provide Guidance to Office of Science and BER Considering :
- Major scientific uncertainties
- Limited budget
- Current research
- Facilities & capabilities available

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
There is a reasonable number of research projects underway involving aerosols, but it is not coordinated or focused.

## APPROACH TO THE CHARGE

- Briefed on current programs
- Other agencies
- DOE Headquarters
- National Labs
- Discussion Sessions
- Identification of Gaps/Uncertainties
- Needs of modelers
- Interaction with ARM
- How to proceed

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
Other agencies – NOAA, NSF, NASA, EPA, NRL, NARSTO (North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone), and NAS/NRC/BASC

ASP/TAP, ARM, Climate Modeling

ANL, BNL, LLNL, EMSL, and NETL

## WHAT ARE THE GAPS ?

- Two Areas of Great Uncertainty Were Highlighted
- Indirect effects of aerosols on clouds
- Role of black carbon and organic aerosols on climate

- E. W. Bierly

## INDIRECT EFFECTS

- Occurs when aerosol particles or gas phase precursors modify clouds changing hydrometeor size distributions; cloud cover, lifetime, albedo; and precipitation
- Dominates current uncertainty in climate forcing
- Fundamental processes and responses are not understood

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
There is a larger discussion of these effects on page 10 of the report.

## DIRECT EFFECTS

- Organic aerosols a significant component of global aerosol burden
- Particle sources, history of their abundance, evolution of chemical & physical properties, interactions with gas phase reservoirs, impact on cloud processes, optical properties – all not known well

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
See page 10 for more details.

## DIRECT EFFECTS CONTINUED

- Organics may be hydrophobic or hydrophilic
- Enhance or retard water uptake
- May absorb visible light – could contribute to global warming
- Create positive and negative forcing

- E. W. Bierly

## Slide 14

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
This shows that the positive forcing from CO2 is almost the same magnitude as the negative forcing due to reflective aerosols.

## COMPONENTS OF THE PROGRAM

- Laboratory Studies
- Field Studies
- Modeling/Theory
- Instrument Development

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
To accomplish any such program it will take a balanced program whose components interact with each other.  For example, some of the lab studies will be done to support results obtained in field studies.

## LABORATORY STUDIES

- Identification through mechanistic and kinetics studies of intermediate diagnostics to provide rigorous tests of models
- Identification of interactions between natural and anthropogenic aerosols and precursors
- Elucidation of the nature of species  measured as “black carbon” by current methods

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
These are just a small sampling of studies that are laid out on page 13 of the report.

## FIELD STUDIES

- Three classes of field experiments needed:
- Long-term systematic measurements linked with ARM sites
- Systematic ground based measurements
- Highly intensive atmospheric process-oriented campaigns

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
These need to be supplemented by satellite data as well as periodic regularly scheduled aircraft over flights.

These need to be supplemented by periodic intensive studies aimed at characterizing long-range transport, mega-city plumes, or aerosol life cycles.

These are used to test specific hypotheses about aerosol-radiative interactions, especially indirect effects involving cloud processing.

Goals for the field studies are enumerated on pages 15-17 of the report.

## Table I.  Timeline of field programs planned by NASA, NOAA, and/or DOE for the   2004-2007 period.  Several of these planned field programs may be appropriate for participation by the reconfigured ASP.

**Table I.  Timeline of field programs planned by NASA, NOAA, and/or DOE for the   2004-2007 period.  Several of these planned field programs may be appropriate for participation by the reconfigured ASP.**

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
Field studies such as those noted here are expensive.  One way to mitigate that problem is to have the studies supported by various agencies as well as having international participation.

## MODELING/THEORY

- Models to resolve cloud fields with microphysical and chemical simulations
- Models to simulate evolution of aerosols and their optical properties on regional scales
- Database for organic and black carbon aerosols needs to be developed for current sources and historical record of abundances of these materials
- Models for the formation of secondary aerosols
- Studies of aerosol archives

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
The modeling work noted here is specialized and is not the large models that have gotten a great deal of visibility.  The results of research from the the Reconfigured ASP will feed into the large models and hopefully be important in reducing uncertainties in the computer products. Investigators needing large models will be able to use such models already available from DOE and other agencies such as NSF (NCAR), NASA (GISS), and NOAA (GFDL).

## INSTRUMENT DEVELOPMENT

- Instruments to further understand radiative properties
- Instruments needed to improve understanding properties of of organic and black carbon aerosols and their impact on clouds
- Provide proper instruments for DOE aircraft
- Present developments in National Labs need to be focused and integrated into broader based research programs

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
The points noted in the slide just give flavor of what instrumentation needs development. The section of the report starting on page 18 through 21 actually gives priorities on what needs to done first and what others may be delayed to a later time.

##                               Table II–CCSP FY 2003 Funding for Aerosol Research
                                       Relevant to Climate Change by Agency
                                                             (Dollars are in millions)

Agency                  Core Programs1                     Contributing Programs2
DOE		         3.03                                            7.03
EPA                                                                                  15.3
NASA          	       12.0
NOAA                               5.84
NSF                                  2.84                                             7.0
______                            _______		        _______
TOTALS                          23.6                                            29.3

_________________________________________________________
1   Focused on aerosol-climate research
2   Not directly focused on aerosol-climate research but relevant to aerosol-climate
3   Prior to reconfiguration of the Atmospheric Science Program
4   Relevant aerosol-climate research, contained within a number of related programs  having a broader scope         than aerosol-climate interactions

**                                       ****Relevant to Climate Change by Agency**
-                                                              (Dollars are in millions)
_**Agency**_**                  **_**Core Programs**_**1****                     **_**Contributing Programs**_**2**
- DOE		         3.03                                            7.03
- EPA                                                                                  15.3
- NASA          	       12.0
- NOAA                               5.84
- NSF                                  2.84                                             7.0
- ______                            _______		        _______
**TOTALS                          23.6                                            29.3**
- _________________________________________________________
- 1   Focused on aerosol-climate research
- 2   Not directly focused on aerosol-climate research but relevant to aerosol-climate
- 3   Prior to reconfiguration of the Atmospheric Science Program
- 4   Relevant aerosol-climate research, contained within a number of related programs  having a broader scope         than aerosol-climate interactions

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
These numbers came originally from the agency briefings.  They have been cleared by the budget offices of the several agencies that are involved.  The bottom line is that if this is as important a problem as some now think it is, then it is woefully underfunded.

## OTHER FINDINGS

- Time to reappraise level of funding
- Agency Program Managers need to meet regularly to discuss issues of mutual interest
- A great deal of on-going research and instrumentation development at National Labs has application to the Reconfigured ASP and needs to be made more widely known through regular meetings with BER Program Managers

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
Although not requested in the charge from the Office of Science, the Panel decided that the way some of the research was being done could be much more effective if it were better coordinated by the actual researchers or the Program Managers and not just at the top.

## RECOMMENDATIONS

- Reconfiguration of ASP has great merit and should be implemented as soon as possible
- Goal is the reduction of uncertainties in the two gap areas
- Need a well balanced program
- Reconfigured ASP needs to coordinate and collaborate with ARM and other programs

- E. W. Bierly

## RECOMMENDATIONS CONTINUED

- Collaboration needed with federal, state, non-governmental organizations as well as international entities
- Reconfigured ASP should use DOE and CCSP modeling programs as test beds
- SC and BER should argue vociferously for support

- E. W. Bierly

## WAS THE CHARGE ANSWERED ?

- Two major gap areas that contribute to uncertainty were identified
- Current aerosol research in DOE and other agencies was obtained from briefings
- Facilities and capabilities currently available or ones that are need were identified
- Guidance on what a reasonable and appropriate Reconfigured ASP should contain was provided

- E. W. Bierly

## 		BERAC AEROSOL PANEL MEMBERS

Eugene W. Bierly		Outreach			AGU

Barbara Finlayson-Pitts	Dept of Chemistry		UC/Irvine				
Inez Y. Fung 		Ctr for Atmospheric Sci	UC/Berkeley

Jim E Hansen		Goddard Inst Space Sci	NASA

George Hidy		Envair/Aerochem 

Kuo Nan Liou		Dept of Atmospheric Sci	UCLA

James F. Meagher		Aeronomy Laboratory	NOAA

Mario Molina		Dept of Meteorology	MIT

Brian Toon		Atmos & Space Physics 	U Colorado

** **
- Eugene W. Bierly		Outreach			AGU
- Barbara Finlayson-Pitts	Dept of Chemistry		UC/Irvine
- Inez Y. Fung 		Ctr for Atmospheric Sci	UC/Berkeley
- Jim E Hansen		Goddard Inst Space Sci	NASA
- George Hidy		Envair/Aerochem
- Kuo Nan Liou		Dept of Atmospheric Sci	UCLA
- James F. Meagher		Aeronomy Laboratory	NOAA
- Mario Molina		Dept of Meteorology	MIT
- Brian Toon		Atmos & Space Physics 	U Colorado

- E. W. Bierly

**Notes:**
Professors Fung and Liou are members of the NAS. Professor Molina is a Nobel Laureate.