# Presentation: 538290

## Wx Issues Raised by NCWF:ATCSCC Request for Assistance

- Dale Rhoda

## Outline

- 2003 ETMS implementation of NCWF
- Appearance
- Documentation & training
- Further implementation of NCWF & NCWD
- Tim Grovac requests advice from WxApps workgroup

## Components of NCWF

- In ETMS 7.6
- Forecast polygons
- Storm motion speed & direction
- Not in ETMS 7.6
- Current storm location polygons
- Performance polygons
- Gridded four-color hazard product – NCWD
- Echo tops

## ETMS 7.6 NCWF Implementation 

## Documentation & Training

- There will not be any procedures associated with NCWF when it appears on ETMS.
- Users would benefit from information on NCWF’s strengths, weaknesses, and performance characteristics.
- Volpe will provide info in the training material, help system, and documentation.
- That information will hopefully shape the users’ expectations for the product.

## Question from AUA-700 and Tim Grovac:

- Which of the remaining NCWF components should be displayed on ETMS and how?

## Current Storm Locations – Easy Decision

- What is it?
- Simply an outline of the storms being tracked.
- Pro:  Users see the regions being tracked
- Pro:  Users can trace a polygon to create a FEA
- Con:  Confusion may result if polygon location and/or shape doesn’t match that of the storm intensity product.
- Proposed recommendation for Tim Grovac: Allow users to display current storm location polygons but not at the same time as the forecast polygons.

## Performance Polygons – Easy Decision

- What is it?
- Allow users to display the forecast polygons that were issued 1 hr ago so they can compare them with the locations of the current storms (using NOWrad or NCWD).
- Pro: By eyeballing whether the forecasts from 1 hr ago have ‘verified’, the users may assign their own personal confidence levels to the current forecast polygons.
- Proposed recommendation for Tim Grovac:  Allow users to display performance polygons
- Do not display at the same time as forecast polygons.
- Differentiate somehow from the current storm location  polygons.

## NCWD – Raises Several Bigger Questions

- Big Questions:
- How should storm intensity be displayed to TFM decision makers?
- Should ETMS include more than one storm intensity product?

## NCWD – More Manageable Questions

- Should NCWD be the ONLY storm intensity product?
- Misses stratiform precip – does not show all storms.
- Misses most winter storms.
- Four color scale is unique.
- Current ETMS NOWrad product uses six colors
- WARP DSR product uses three colors
- Proposed recommendation for Tim Grovac: Do not make NCWD the only ETMS storm intensity product.

## NCWD – More Manageable Question #2

- What would be the pros and cons of adding NCWD to the current suite of ETMS wx products?
- Pros
- Showing 2 or more slightly differing storm intensity products might remind users that each product is an _estimate_ rather than a precise ATM measure.
- NCWD is less cluttered than NOWrad in summertime.
- NCWD would show what the NCWF polygons are based on.
- Cons
- Showing differing products might confuse some users.
- Missing storms could confuse users.
- NCWD’s four color scale is unique and possibly confusing.

## NCWD

- Recommendations
- Engage larger WxApps group in discussion.
- Check with NCAR to see whether a six color product could be produced in CY2004.

## Echo Tops

- What is it?
- NCWF issues an echo tops value for each storm that it is tracking.  (Those that meet the height & area & longevity criteria to warrant an NCWF forecast polygon.)
- Should ETMS show the NCWF echo tops product?
- Dale suggests no; D. Rodenhuis & Bill Cranor suggest yes.
- ETMS already has an echo tops product.
- NCWF product doesn’t appear until the storm has a motion vector (first ~45 mins of storm life).
- NCWF tops only appear for large storms.
- Both estimates come from the NEXRAD product – perhaps they’re identical?

## Summary (page 1)

- ETMS will display NCWF forecast polygons in Spring ’03
- The ETMS 7.6 documentation will include a brief description of the product’s strengths, weaknesses, and past performance.
- The FAA has requested recommendations from this group concerning the remaining components of NCWF.
- This raises questions that are much bigger than just NCWF.

## Summary (page 2)

- Proposed Recommendations for Tim Grovac(Subject to larger group’s review)
- Allow users to see current storm location polygons.
- Allow users to see performance polygons.
- Needs more discussion
- NCWD
- Echo tops