# Presentation: 076290

## Overview:  U.S. Climate Change Science Program(CCSP)Synthesis and Assessment Reports (SAP)

**Anjuli S Bamzai**
**Designated Federal Official**
**DOE Climate Change Science Program Product Development Advisory Committee (CPDAC)**
**BERAC**
**Sept 5, 2008**

##       CCSP Strategic Plan Goals & SAPs

** ****Goal 1:** **Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change. **
**     ****SAPs ****1.1****, 1.2, 1.3**
** ****Goal 2:**** Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems. **
**     ****SAPs ****2.1****, ****2.2****, 2.3, 2.4**** **
**Goal 3:**** Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and environmental systems may change in the future **
**     ****SAPs ****3.1****, 3.2, ****3.3****, 3.4**
**Goal 4:**** Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes**
-     **SAPs 4.1, 4.2, ****4.3, 4.4, ****4.5****, 4.6, 4.7**
-  **Goal 5:**** Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change**
-     **SAPs 5.1, 5.2, 5.3**

- Large bold font: complete
- DOE lead agency

##     DOE led SAPs

-  **SAP 2.1**** **
**   ****2.1a:**** *****Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric   ******	******Concentrations***
**   ****2.1b:**** *****Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application***
**                     ****DOE  + (EPA NASA NOAA)**
**                     ****completed 07/07; Lead John Houghton                                     **
** **
** ****SAP 4.5**** **
**     *****Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States***
**                      ****DOE**
**                      ****completed10/07; Lead Jeff Amthor**
**SAP 3.1**** **
**    *****Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations*****                 DOE + (NASA NOAA NSF)**
**                      ****completed 07/08; Lead Anjuli Bamzai**

##              SAP 4.5

**Thomas J. Wilbanks, ORNL, Coordinator + Authors from ANL, BNL, LBNL, NETL, NREL, ORNL, PNNL**
**Three questions: **
**    ****How might climate change affect energy consumption in the United States?**
**    ****How might climate change affect energy production and supply in the United States?**
**    ****How might climate change have other effects that indirectly shape energy production and consumption in the United States?**

## SAP 4.5   Development Process 

**Public Review of Prospectus **

**Expert Review **
**Draft edit &r**
**response**

**Revised draft **
**posted, edit and **
**response**

- Sept ’05 Stakeholders WS

**Draft **
**Prospectus**

- Feb ‘06

- Mar ‘06

- April ‘06

- June ‘06

- June ‘07

-  October ‘07

- Dec ‘06

-    SAPs 2.1 and 3.1 were developed by a DOE Advisory Committee, U.S. Climate Change Product Development Advisory Committee aka CPDAC

## DOE CPDAC

- _[http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CPDAC/CPDAC.html](http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CPDAC/CPDAC.html)__ _
- 29 members,
- Dr Soroosh Sorooshian/UC Irvine Chair
- Dr Anthony Busalacchi/UM College Park Vice-Chair
- CPDAC active from Aug ‘06 to Jul ’08.

##           SAP 2.1

-  Part A ***Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations ***
-     ...developed scenarios to evaluate four alternative stabilization levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (450, 550, 650and 750ppm) and the implications to energy and the economy for achieving each level.
-  Part B ***Global-Change Scenarios:  Their Development and Use***
-    ... examined how scenarios have been developed and used in global climate change applications; evaluated effectiveness of current scenarios; and recommended ways to make future scenarios more useful.
-  Leon Clarke/PNNL lead coordinator for SAP 2.1
** **_[http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-1/default.php](http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-1/default.php)_

##                   SAP 3.1

  Climate Models: An Assessment of    	Strengths and Limitations

-   Climate Models: An Assessment of    	Strengths and Limitations

## SAP 3.1 Target Audience and Scope

- • Assumes a technical reader, but not necessarily a climate researcher
- Written at a level that enables intelligent use of climate model results
- Covers comprehensive global coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice models and downscaling approaches
- Does not include Earth System Models of
-   Intermediate Complexity

## SAP 3.1 Author Team 

- Dave Bader/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (Coordinating Author)
- Dr Curtis Covey/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
- Dr William Gutowski/Iowa State Univ
- Dr Isaac Held/NOAA GFDL
- Dr Kenneth Kunkel/Illinois State Water Survey
- Dr Ron Miller/NASA GISS
- Dr Robin Tokmakian/Naval Postgraduate      School
- Dr Minghua Zhang/SUNY Stonybrook
-   Authors were members of the larger CPDAC

## SAP 3.1 Peer Reviewers

- Dr. Kerry Cook/Cornell
- Dr. Carlos Mechoso/UCLA
- Dr. Gerald Meehl/NCAR
- Dr. Philip Mote/Univ. Washington Seattle
- Dr Brad Udall/Western Water Assessment Boulder
- Dr John Walsh/International Arctic Research Center Fairbanks

## SAP 3.1 focuses on the following questions

***What are the major components and processes of the climate system that are included in present state-of-the-science climate models, and how do climate models represent these aspects of the climate system? ***
*** ******How are changes in the Earth’s energy balance incorporated into climate models? How sensitive is the Earth’s (modeled) climate to changes in the factors that affect the energy balance? ***
*** ******How uncertain are climate model results? In what ways has uncertainty in model-based simulation and prediction changed with increased knowledge about the climate system?  ***
***How well do climate models simulate natural variability and how does variability change over time? ***
*** ******How well do climate models simulate regional climate variability and change? ***
***What are the tradeoffs to be made in further climate model development (e.g., between increasing spatial/temporal resolution and representing additional physical/biological processes)? ***

**Notes:**
Colleague asked Sunday while putting together slides when oil peaks and declines

## SAP 3.1: Contents

**1. Introduction**
**2. Description of Global Climate System Models**
**3. Added Value of Regional Climate Model**
**Simulations**
**4. Model Climate Sensitivity**
**5. Model Simulation of Major Climate Features**
**6. Future Model Development**
**7. Example Applications of Climate Model Results**

## SAP 3.1   Development Process 

**Peer Review**

**CPDAC Review**

**Meet to Approve**

**First Draft**

- CPDAC First meeting Aug ‘06.

- Fall ‘06

- Winter ‘07

- Spring ‘07

- Fall ‘07

- Winter ‘07

- April ‘08

## Status of DOE led SAPs

-  All 3 SAPs have been completed.  DOE coordinated press release of each SAP with U.S. CCSP
-  SAP 2.1 hard copies submitted to Congress
-  SAP 4.5, SAP 3.1 hard copies being printed; these will also be submitted to Congress
-  Steps being taken to terminate the CPDAC since it has successfully completed charge