# Presentation: 616104

## SECC Partners

***Florida State Univeristy**** – **climate studies, coupled modeling, climate forecasts, forestry*

***University of Florida ****– **extension, crop modeling, decision support tools*

***University of Miami**** – **climate, economics, water resources, assessment*

***University of Georgia – ****climate, extension, crop modeling*

***University of Auburn – ****extension, economics, insurance*

***University of Alabama Huntsville – ****climate, water resources*

## SECC Climate Vision

- Facilitate the effective use of climate information and forecasts in areas of agriculture, forestry, and water resource management in the Southeast United States.

## SECC Climate Goals

- Better understand and predict climate variability, including extremes, extreme events, and uncertainties, in the Southeast.
- Develop products and services which most effectively communicate pertinent climate information to the end user.

## SECC Climate Program Structure

- Table 1. Climate Activities

| 
Climate Activity | AU | FSU |  UF | UGA | UM | UAH |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ARSCO State Climate Office |  | x |  | x |  | x |
| Agriculture or other Weather Network |  |  | x | x |  | x |
| Climate Extension Specialist | x | x | x | x |  |  |
| Climate Research  | x | x | x | x | x | x |

## SECC Climate Research Objectives

- Explore other modes of climate variability in the Southeast U.S.
- Focus on variability of extremes and extreme events.
- Development, validation and linkage of Global/regional spectral climate model with crop and hydrologic models.
- Development of stochastic weather generators.
- Refinement and development of climate forecast products and their presentation to the end users.

## SECC Climate Data Infrastructure 

- Web delivery of climate information and forecast products.
- Automate data ingest and data base updates.
- Include near real-time data and products
- Inclusion of data from agricultural weather networks.
- Explore the use of remotely sensed data such as nexrad and satellite.

## The Philosophy of Climate Services

- By:
- Jim O’Brien
- State Climatologist of Florida
*The Florida State University *
*Tallahassee, FL 32305*
- _[J](mailto:Jim.obrien@coaps.fsu.edu)__[im.obrien@coaps.fsu.edu](mailto:Jim.obrien@coaps.fsu.edu)_
_*(850) 644-4581*_

**Notes:**
Introduction

## What is Climate Services?

*Climate Services is the delivery of knowledge of *
*past and future climate variability to users.*

## What are standard variables?

- The standard “weather variables” are:
- Temperature - Hourly, daily, maximum and minimum, monthly, annual
- Atmospheric Pressure
- Rainfall - Hourly, daily, monthly, etc., rainfall rates
- Humidity - Specific humidity, relative humidity, wet-bulb temperature, etc.
- Winds - Wind speed and direction, wind components

- Most clients need derived information.   EXAMPLES:

## Wind Climatology

## Probabilistic Climate Forecasts

## Impact Freezes of the last century

_**Freeze Date        ENSO State**_
**  *****Dec 1894            Neutral**
**    ****Feb 1899            Neutral**
**   ****Dec 1934            Neutral**
**   ****Jan 1940             Neutral**
**  *****Dec 1961            Neutral**
**    ****Jan 1977             El Nino**
**   ****Jan 1981             Neutral**
**  *****Dec 1983            Neutral**
**   ****Jan 1985             Neutral**
**  *****Dec 1989            Neutral**
**   ****Jan 1997             Neutral**
***   High Impact**

## ENSO and Florida FreezeProbabilites

## Extended Freeze Events

## First Lessons Learned

- Concise information
- Simple and easy to understand
- Timely and up to date
- Local information (county scale)
- Comes from a trusted source - partnership with extension
- Historical context

## www.agclimate.org

## Slide 17

## Slide 18

## More Lessons Learned

- Traditional climate variables not always meaninful
- Return rate low
- Repeat exposure aids understanding
- Users unable to make quick conclusions
- Information needs to be interpreted
- No real entry or starting point

## Climate Outlooks

- Quarterly, focus on next 3-6 months
- Simple language
- “No forecast” does not mean “no information”
- Highlights seasonal issues or threats
- No more that 2 pages

## Success of Climate Outlooks

- Media ready
- All or parts can be pasted into extension newsletters
*AgClimate *hit rates spike on release of the outlooks
- Provide natural link for our partners at FAWN and GAEMN
- Great feedback from growers, agents, and extension specialists

## Crop-specificOutlooks

- Released at critical times for the given commodity
- Direct input from extension specialists
- Gives management options, not recommedations

| Peanut | Sept. 05,
Mar. 06 | Ed Jowers, John Beasly,
William Birdsong |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Citrus | Sept. 05 | John Jackson |
| Winter Pasture | Sept. 05 | Doug Mayo |

## Success of Crop-Specific Outlooks

- Participation by extension specialists fosters ownership
- Widely included in county or area newletters
- Continued engagement keep climate issues in the forefront

## ANY QUESTIONS?