# Presentation: 098164

## Fusion in the future energy mix

- Marc Beurskens
- FOM institute for plasma physics "Rijnhuizen"
- 3430 BE Nieuwegein, PO Box 1207
- The Netherlands
- Marc.Beurskens@rijnh.nl

## Questionnaire on energy in 2100

## Fusion’s contribution in 2100?

| 50% of global energy use |  |
| --- | --- |

## Fusion’s contribution in 2100?

| 10% of global energy use |  |
| --- | --- |

## Fusion’s contribution in 2100?

| 1% of global energy use |  |
| --- | --- |

## Fusion’s contribution in 2100?

| none |  |
| --- | --- |

## Which of these will have a contribution of more than 10% in 2100?

| Wind |  |
| --- | --- |
| Solar PV |  |
| Biomass |  |
| Fission |  |

## Which of these will be the cheapest in 2100?

| Wind |  |
| --- | --- |
| Solar PV |  |
| Biomass |  |
| Fusion |  |
| Fission |  |

## Energy issues one hears about

- Oil will run out
- Security of supply
- The climate is going to change
- Energy poverty

## How much oil is left?

## BP says 40 years

**3500**

** **

**0**

** **

**40**

** **

**7000**

** **

**0**

** **

- Oil production (Mt/year)

- Years from now

## Oil production (Mt/year)

**30**

** **

**3500**

** **

**0**

** **

** **

**7000**

** **

**0**

** **

- Years from now

## Oil production (Mt/year)

** **

**3500**

** **

**0**

** **

** **

**7000**

** **

**0**

** **

** **

- Years from now

## Where is the oil?

- (source BP statistical review 2002)

**Miljard vaten**

## Resources limited?

## Not if we accept to use coal

## Fossil fuels

- Run out but probably only on the long run
- Induce security of supply problems

## Any other issues?

## Climate change

## CO2 is Prime Greenhouse gas

## CO2 concentration 

- Was 280 ppm
- Is 360 ppm
- Will be?

## How much CO2 are we going to emit this century?

## CO2 emission scenarios...

- CO2 emission scenarios...

- Source: IPCC SRES emission scenarios

## CO2 is Prime Greenhouse gas

## Slide 25

## So we need to get rid of fossil fuels because:

- They run out on the long run
- They contribute to political instability
- And most importantly they contribute to global warming

## Can we make a prediction for the future energy consumption?

## CO2 emission scenarios...

- CO2 emission scenarios...

- Source: IPCC SRES emission scenarios

## World energy consumption

- 0

- 200

- 400

- 600

- 800

- 1000

- 1200

- 1400

- 1600

**Year**

**Energy consumption (EJ)**

- “South”

- “North”

- IIASA B-scenario

## What does the current mix look like?

- Source: IEA

## Which part may remain fossil?

- 0

- 200

- 400

- 600

- 800

- 1000

- 1200

- 1400

- 1600

**Year**

- Source: VN, IPCC

**Energy consumption (EJ)**

## Target European Commission

- 50% emission reduction in 2050
- Now assume that the rest of the world would also do this...

## “The entire world has 50% carbon free energy in 2050”

- 0

- 200

- 400

- 600

- 800

- 1000

- 1200

- 1400

- 1600

**Year**

- “The entire world has 50% carbon free energy in 2050”

**Energy consumption (EJ)**

## What are the options for 2050?

- Energy saving
- Solar
- Wind
- Biomass
- Hydro
- Nuclear fission
- Carbon sequestration

## Fossil fuels

| Cost | Dirt cheap (3 €cts/kWh) |
| --- | --- |
| Application | All |
| Scale | Small-Big |
| Operation | Extremely variable |
| Public acceptance | Good/sexy |
| Potential | 100% (now 80%) |
| Environment | Bad |
| Political tension | yes |

## Nuclear Energy

| Cost | Cheap (5-10€cts/kWh) |
| --- | --- |
| Application | Electricity |
| Scale | Big |
| Operation | Continuous |
| Public acceptance | Very Bad |
| Potential | Large |
| Environment | Good/Bad |
| Political tension | yes |

## Hydro Energy

| Cost | Low |
| --- | --- |
| Application | Electricity |
| Scale | Small-large |
| Operation | ~variable |
| Public acceptance | Boring |
| Potential | Limited 10% |
| Environment | Good (?) |
| Political tension | no |

## Energy saving

| Cost | Cheap-Expensive |
| --- | --- |
| Application | All |
| Scale | Small-Big |
| Operation | - |
| Public acceptance | Boring |
| Potential | 15% (now 0%) |
| Environment | good |
| Political tension | no |

## Solar Energy

| Cost | Very high (100€cts/kWh) |
| --- | --- |
| Application | Electricity |
| Scale | Small-Big |
| Operation | Intermittent |
| Public acceptance | sexy |
| Potential | 5-10% (now 0.01%) |
| Environment | good |
| Political tension | no |

## Example: To cover 5% of current energy  in Europe

- We need to install 600 times the current world capacity of solar PV
- This would cover the Netherlands

## Wind Energy

| Cost | Cheap (5-10€cts/kWh) |
| --- | --- |
| Application | Electricity |
| Scale | Takes much space |
| Operation | Intermittent |
| Public acceptance | sexy |
| Potential | 5-10% (now 0.1%) |
| Environment | good |
| Political tension | no |

## Contribution to electricity of wind energy in 2003

## 
Currently 2% of electricity in Europe:
24 GW of wind

20% of electricity in Europe means
240 GW of wind

- Currently 2% of electricity in Europe:
- 24 GW of wind
- 20% of electricity in Europe means
- 240 GW of wind

## Which means 1500 big wind parks

- Horns Rev in Denmark: 160 MW (80 mills of 2MWp)

## Biomass Energy

| Cost | Medium (10-50€cts/kWh) |
| --- | --- |
| Application | All |
| Scale | Huge |
| Operation | Variable |
| Public acceptance | bad |
| Potential | 5-10% (now 1-2%) |
| Environment | good |
| Political tension | no |

## Example: To cover 5% of current energy  in Europe

- We need to cover France with energy crops

## CO2 storage

| Additional cost | 5-20 €cts/kWh |
| --- | --- |
| Application | All |
| Scale | Large |
| Operation | Variable |
| Public acceptance | bad |
| Potential | Large |
| Environment | Good? (not proven) |
| Political tension | no |

## Hydrogen economy

- To make hydrogen from electrolyses is too expensive (factor 2-3)
- Fuel cells are too expensive (factor 10)
- Hydrogen is essential as energy storage for intermittent sources

## There is no single alternative energy source that can replace the role of fossil fuels

## In total

- All the renewable sources would add up to about 50% if all works perfectly
- Nuclear fission and carbon sequestration could fill in the gaps.

## Surely we are investing a lot?

## Industry R&D investment

- 0

- 10

- 20

- 30

- 40

- 50

- 60

- 70

- Tobacco

- Electricity

- Oil & gas

- Telecommunications

- Automobiles & parts

- Electronic & electrical

- Pharma & biotech

- IT hardware

**%**

- R&D investment/Added Value

- Can energy industry invest more in R&D?

## Industry all investment

- 0

- 10

- 20

- 30

- 40

- 50

- 60

- 70

- Tobacco

- Electricity

- Oil & gas

- Telecommunications

- Automobiles & parts

- Electronic & electrical

- Pharma & biotech

- IT hardware

**%**

- R&D investment/Added Value

- Capital invest/Added Value

## What does the government do? 

- 1000

- 2000

- 3000

- 4000

- 5000

- 6000

- 1970

- 1980

- 1990

- 2000

**Year**

**Government R$D in  US$**

- 0

- 10

- 20

- 30

- 40

- 50

- 60

- 70

- 80

**Oil price 2001$**

- Government R&D

- Raw oil price

- 0

## Action required

- We need all available energy sources
- Invest in implementation of nearly competitive sources
- Invest in R&D for not yet competitive and newer sources

## What after 2050?

## 80-90% of energy should be carbon free in 2100

- 0

- 200

- 400

- 600

- 800

- 1000

- 1200

- 1400

- 1600

**Year**

**Energy consumption (EJ)**

## It could be better, it could be worse...

- Source: IPCC SRES emission scenarios

## Is there anything else we can hope for?

## Fusion

## Nuclear fusion

| Cost | ? |
| --- | --- |
| Application | Electricity |
| Scale | Large 1GWe |
| Operation | ? |
| Public acceptance | ? |
| Potential | ? |
| Environment | ? |
| Political tension | no |

## Cost

## Fusion plant cost division

## Does it become cheaper?

- 2030
- Cost of fusion
-  electricity
- 16€ct/kWh

- Cost example:

- 2100
- Cost of fusion
-  electricity
- 7-9 €ct/kWh

- Investment cost million Euros

## Operation

## Load following

- Fusion is high investment/low running cost
- But load following with about 50% power variation is possible

## Potential

## Fusion “fast” track?

## How fast can we grow?

- 1 reactor in 2035
- 1 commercial reactor in 2050
- 10 commercial reactors in 2060
- Growth no higher than 10-15% per year
- 250-2500 reactors in 2100.
- This is 4-35% of global electricity in 2100
- So < 10% of total energy in 2100.

## Public acceptance

## Public opinion: Eurobarometer

## Public opinion: informed students

## Environment

## Environment

- No Greenhouse gasses
- No other chemical pollutants
- Radioactive waste?

## Anti-ITER site in Canada

## Bulk radioactive waste: OK

## Tritium

- “*If 10 g of tritium is released to the atmosphere, no evacuation of the direct environment outside the site is required*“
- Question:
- What if all of the 1.5kg are released?

## Nuclear fusion

| Cost | 7-16€cts |
| --- | --- |
| Application | Electricity |
| Scale | Large 1GWe |
| Operation | Continuous/variable |
| Public acceptance | Be very careful |
| Potential | <5% in 2100  |
| Environment | Good, but |
| Political tension | no |

## “If all the money given to fusion would go to renewables this would solve the world’s energy problems “

## EU-15 Energy support

**Totaal: 18 Billion Euro/year**
**Subsidies:**15 Billion Euro
- 7.5 Billion fossil
- 3.5 Billion Renewables
- 3.5 Billion energy saving
- 0.5 Billion Nuclear fission
**R&D Private:** 1 Billion Euro
**R&D Public :** 2 Billion Euro

- Source: Delft-CE

## Which part may remain fossil?

- 0

- 200

- 400

- 600

- 800

- 1000

- 1200

- 1400

- 1600

**Year**

- Source: VN, IPCC

**Energy consumption (EJ)**

## Plan for the future

| 
Now-2030 |  Efficiency improvement
 Wind and biomass
 Coal  Gas
 Solar PV R&D
 Energy storage R&D 
 Nuclear fusion R&D
 CO2 sequestration R&D
 Generation IV fission R&D |
| --- | --- |

## Plan for the future

| 
2030-2050 |  CO2 sequestration
 Energy storage
 Wind en biomass
 Solar competitive? 
 Fusion works?
 Continue energy R&D! |
| --- | --- |

## Plan for the future

| 
2050-2100 | In this era we need all the options we can get
 Energy storage works well
 So many renewable options
 Solar PV is competitive
 Fusion works |
| --- | --- |

## Fusion and the energy mix

- No single new energy source can replace fossil fuels.
- Therefore an extensive energy mix is required
- To achieve this large R&D and implementation budgets are required
- Fusion could play a significant role at the end of the century, but does not offer a single solution.

## The energy mantra should be

- We need to invest in all new options for energy production.
- We should not fight each other, but join forces towards policy makers.

- Fusion comes late, but will arrive exactly at the time when the need is the highest

## Thank you for your attention

## Slide 88

## Welk aandeel mag fossiel blijven?

- 0

- 200

- 400

- 600

- 800

- 1000

- 1200

- 1400

- 1600

**Year**

- A1

- A2

- B2

- B1

**Energy consumption (EJ)**

- IIASA

## Is energy equally distributed on earth?

- A Chinaman uses 10 times less energy than an American.
- At the end of this century this will still be only a third

## Equal energy distribution?

- 0

- 0.2

- 0.4

- 0.6

- 0.8

- 1.0

- 1.2

- North

- America

- Western

- Europe

- India and

- China

- Afrika

**Relative energy consumption**

**per person**

- IIASA/WEC 1998: business as usual scenario

- 2000  2050 2100

- 2000  2050 2100

- 2000  2050 2100

- 2000  2050 2100

- No!

## Resource limitations or climate change?

- Conventional
- Conventional (upper)
- Unconventional

## It will produce only 20-40% of its maximum capacity

## Can Solar PV get Cheaper?

- Maybe

## Slide 95