# Presentation: 754126

## Long-Term Outlook for

**Administrator**
**Energy Information Administration**
**African Oil and Gas Conference**
**Washington, DC**

**November 30, 2005**

***Long-Term Outlook for***
***World Energy Markets***

## International Energy Outlook 2005 indicates that over the next two decades...

**Worldwide energy consumption will grow by 57 percent between 2002 and 2025, an average annual growth rate of 2 percent, with the strongest growth in the emerging economies, particularly in Asia.**
**World oil demand will grow from 78 to 119 million barrels per day, with the United States and emerging Asia, including China and India, accounting for 64 percent of the growth.**
**Natural gas will be the fastest growing energy source worldwide, at a average growth rate of 2.3 percent.**
**Although the slowest growing energy source, nuclear power will increase, particularly in emerging Asia, where its use will triple.**
**Carbon dioxide emissions will increase at a rate of 1.9 percent, with the fastest growth in the emerging economies.**

## World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1970-2025(quadrillion Btu)

**Reference**

**Low Economic**
**Growth**

**High Economic **
**Growth**

**708**

**645**

**586**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## World Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2025(billion 2000 U.S. dollars)

**Reference**

**High Economic**
**Growth**

**Low Economic **
**Growth**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## World and Regional GDP, 2002, andGDP Growth Rates, 2002-2025

**(billion 2000 dollars)**

**(annual average percent)**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**47,227**

**13,196**

**11,997**

**9,416**

**3,904**

**3,460**

**2,388**

**1,434**

**1,431**

## World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

**Mature Market **
**Economies**

**Transitional Economies**

**Emerging **
**Economies**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**46%**

**42%**

**12%**

**Share of**
**World **
**Total**

- History

- Projections

## World Population by Region, 1970-2025(millions)

**Mature Market **
**Economies**

**Transitional Economies**

**Emerging **
**Economies**

- United Nations, *World Population Prospects, The 2002 Revision.*

**81%**

**14%**

**5%**

**Share of**
**World **
**Total**

- History

- Projections

## World Energy Intensity by Region, 1970-2025(thousand Btu per thousand dollars of GDP)

**Mature Market **
**Economies**

- Transitional Economies

**Emerging Economies**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## World Energy Use per Capita by Region, 2002-2025(million Btu per person)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

## World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

**Oil**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**38%**

**25%**

**8%**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**24%**

**5%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

- History

- Projections

##  Share of World Energy Consumption by Region and Fuel, 2002 and 2025 (percent)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**Mature Market**
**Economies**

**Transitional**
**Economies**

**Emerging**
**Economies**

## Energy Consumption in the Emerging Economies, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

## Primary Energy Consumption in the Emerging Economies by Fuel, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

**Oil**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**40%**

**32%**

**7%**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**18%**

**2%**

**Share of **
**Total**

- History

- Projections

## World Oil Consumption by Region, 2002, 2015, and 2025(million barrels per day)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**28.7**

**49.4**

**46.3**

**56.9**

**57.0**

**62.2**

**2002**

**2015**

**2025**

##  World Oil Consumption and Production, 2002, 2010, and 2025 (million barrels per day)

**Consumption**

**Production**

**OPEC**
**Transitional Economies**
**Other**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**78.2**

**94.6**

**119.2**

**78.1**

**94.3**

**118.9**

## World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2005(billion barrels)

*Oil & Gas Journal*, "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,“ Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004).

**World Total =**
**1,278 Billion Barrels**

## World Natural Gas Consumption by Region,2002, 2015, and 2025 (trillion cubic feet)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**22.0**

**70.2**

**35.6**

**92.3**

**50.7**

**105.4**

**2002**

**2015**

**2025**

## World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2005, and Cumulative Consumption, 2002-2025 (trillion cubic feet)

**World Natural Gas Reserves =**
**6,040 Trillion Cubic Feet**
**World Cumulative Consumption,**
** ****2002-2025 =**
** ****2,954 Trillion Cubic Feet**

**Reserves**

**Cumulative Consumption, 2002-2025**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*
*Oil & Gas Journal*, "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,“ Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004)

##  World Coal Consumption by Region, 2002, 2015, and 2025(million short tons)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**2,424**

**2,838**

**4,134**

**3,111**

**4,878**

**3,348**

**2002**

**2015**

**2025**

## World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2003(billion short tons)

*International Energy Annual 2003*

**World Total =**
**1,001 Billion Short Tons**

##  World Net Electricity Consumption by Region,2002, 2015, and 2025 (billion kilowatthours)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**2002**

**2015**

**2025**

**4,645**

**9,630**

**8,909**

**12,491**

**11,554**

**14,464**

## Electricity Consumption per Capita by Country Group, 2002 and 2025 (kilowatthours per person per year)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

## Shares of Energy Use for Electricity Generation, 2002-2025(percent)

*International Energy Annual 2003 *and* International Energy Outlook 2005*

- History
- Projections

##  World Nuclear Energy Consumption by Region,2002, 2015, and 2025 (billion kilowatthours)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**2002**

**2015**

**2025**

**225**

**2,334**

**519**

**2,512**

**675**

**2,595**

##  World Hydroelectric and Renewable Energy Consumption by Region, 2002, 2015, and 2025 (quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**2002**

**2015**

**2025**

**12.4**

**19.7**

**18.6**

**23.7**

**21.5**

**27.4**

##  World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2025 (billion metric tons)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**2002**

**2015**

**2025**

**6.1**

**15.4**

**9.4**

**15.0**

**15.6**

**17.7**

**1990**

**19.2**

**19.6**

## Data Collection

**EIA Has Numerous Data Collection Programs Including: **
**	****- Petroleum Supply and Marketing**
**	****- Natural Gas**
**	****- Oil and Gas Reserves**
**	****- Electric Power**
**	****- Coal, Nuclear, Renewables, and Alternative Fuels**
**	****- Greenhouse Gases**
**	****- Energy Consumption**
**	****- Financial Reporting**
**Accurate Data Are Critical:**
**     ****- To Assist Policymakers**
**	****- To Help Markets Function Efficiently and Transparently**

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, *****weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2005*****, December 2004, annually**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2005*****, July 2005, annually**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****Dec 2003**
**    **
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**