# Presentation: 477279

## Small Agriculture Needs and Desires for Weather and Climate Information in a Case Study in Colorado 

- John D. Wiener, presenting work by Wiener, Charles Howe, and others
- Funding from Office of Global Programs, NOAA, Program on Economics and Human Dimensions
- Presentation excerpted from AMS 2004 pre-print and supplemented by comments from the presenter, not necessarily the views of anyone else.

**Notes:**
Because the file for this presentation, with appendix of detailed calendar of decisions, I’ll take this opportunity to present a little more lively material than just grinding through the shopping lists that our research generated.

First, I’ll offer a perspective on some of the surprisingly large public interests in “small agriculture” -- it isn’t just about a few horse-lovers and their ornamental hay-burners...

John Wiener/ Research Associate, Program on Environment and Behavior, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO   80309-0468; 303-492-6746; john.wiener@colorado.edu 

## Colorado Interviewees (one or more formal interviews, or continuing contact)

- ACEJM is U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, John Martin Dam and Reservoir, Hasty, Colorado
- AM is Alfred  Muth, Farmer and Seed Dealer south of Rocky Ford
- AVP is Arkansas Valley Range Project , Mr. Gerald Knapp and later also Mr. Tom Simpson
- BA is Mr. Bob Appel, Projects Coordinator for Southeastern Colorado, USDA RC&D.  We asked him to act as an "expert farmer" (and he is in fact a successful farmer in the Valley).
- BH is Mr. Bill Hancock, Otero County Director, CSU Cooperative AG. Extension Service, Rocky Ford
- BHman  is Mr. Bert Hartman,  Bessemer Canal, and former officer, Cattlemen's Association, Avon
- BIA is Mr. Preston Fisher, P.E., Supervisory Engineer, Southern Ute Agency, and Mr. Gerry George, Fire Management Officer
- BORPC is Bureau of Reclamation, Pueblo, Colorado, Mr. Tom Musgrove
- BS is Mr. Bill Stanton, Chief of the Conservation Planning Section, Colorado Water Conservation Board, Department of Natural Resources, State of Colorado
- CC is Catlin Canal Co., Mr. Wayne Whittaker, Secretary
- CH is Chuck Hanagan of the Farm Service Agency, USDA, Rocky Ford, or his associate, Ms. Christine Crump, Program Technician
- CPIA is Central Plains Irrigation Association (annual meetings, about 20 papers each year)
- D2 is Colorado State Engineer, Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources, Division 2, Dr. Tom Ley, Hydrologist
- DH is Mr. Don Hansen, Holbrook Canal, Cheraw
- DF is Mr. Dave Findley, Farmer and Seed Dealer, Las Animas
- DH is Mr. Dan Henrichs, Superintendent of the Rocky Ford Highline Canal (not to be confused with the Rocky Ford Ditch, a different enterprise)
- FL is Fort Lyon Canal Co., Mr. Manny Torrez, Superintendent
- FM is Mr. Frank McSwan, Farm Manager for Findley Enterprises, and retired feedlot operator, Las Animas
- JD is Ms. Julia Davis, Assistant to Operations Manager, John Martin Dam and Reservoir, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hasty, Colorado.
- JG is Mr. Jody Grantham, Office of the State Engineer, Division of Water Resources, Colorado Department of Natural Resources
- JK is Mr. John Knapp, District Conservationist, NRCS, La Junta
- JT is Dr. Jeffrey Tranel, Agricultural Economist, Co-Operative Agricultural Extension Service, Pueblo
- JV is Mr. Jim Valliant, CSU Cooperative Ag. Extension Service Irrigation  Specialist, Rocky Ford
- LS is Dr. Lorenz Sutherland, Natural Resources Conservation Service La Junta Office
- MO is Mr. Michael Olguin, Director, Department of Natural Resources, Southern Ute Indian Tribe.
- PC is _Pueblo Chieftain_, the dominant newspaper in the South of Colorado.
- PRIID is Pine River Indian Irrigation District (Southern Ute and neighbors' lands).
- RF is Rocky Ford Ditch Co., Mr. Ron Aschermann, Secretary
- SC is Mr. Scott Cotton, CSU Cooperative Ag. Extension Service Range Specialist, Pueblo.
- SE is Southeast Colorado Water Conservancy District, Mr. Tom Simpson, Mr. Bob Hamilton, Mr. Phil Reynolds.
- SM is Mr. Stephen Miller, P.E., Senior Water Resources Specialist, Colorado Water Conservation Board, Department of Natural Resources, State of Colorado.
- SR is Mr. Scott Reed, Principal Agricultural Lending Officer, Valley State Bank, Lamar
- SS is Mr. Steve Sherlock, Vice-President, Colorado East Bank, Lamar
- SU is Southern Ute Indian Tribe, Mr. Jim Formea, Division Head, Division of Water Resources, Department of Natural Resources.
- SW is Mr. Steven Witte, Division Engineer, Division 2 (Arkansas Basin), Office of the State Engineer, Colorado
- TS is Dr. Tim Steffens, CSU Cooperative Ag. Extension Service Range Specialist, Rocky Ford.
- UMU is Ute Mountain Ute Farm & Ranch Enterprise, General Manager, and agricultural management consultant.
- WM is Mr. Bill Milenski, Certified Real Estate Appraiser and Agricultural Manager, Swink, Co.

**Notes:**

The fine print!  In the course of our inquiries, we talked, usually for half a day or more, on usually several occasions, with many people, and we keep interacting on a continuing basis.  You can zoom the slide larger if you want to read the list.

**Notes:**
The public interest in water supply and drought included substantial increases in political response to problems, and there is increasing interest in the issues raised by water transfers, west-side and perhaps in some parts of the East where irrigation is increasing.   The DOI-DOA “Water 2025” initiative may offer support for the kinds of collaborations that the Climate Services providers are seeking, following the NRC “Vision for Climate Services”, and so forth.

## Housing Density Change 1960 - 2050

**Notes:**
Here in Colorado, there is increasing public concern for the effects of growth.  As you probably know, there have been numerous surveys, in which the public here as well as in the rest of the U.S. supports open space, rural scenery, the family farm, and related amenities.  This is not the place for details, but the interests are well-founded in concern for the economic and social viability of rural areas in the West.

## Pressure on Agricultural Water

- The general financial squeeze on farms
- Water for municipal growth in Colorado, (and the urbanizing West in general)
- In the South Platte Basin, with most of the Front Range cities - Fort Collins to Denver, Ag. used 2.8 million acre-feet in 1998, when cities used only about 0.7 MAF.  In the Arkansas, Ag uses ~80%.
- Future climate?  Likely lower water supply --USGCRP Great Plains, Rocky Mountain-Great Basin Regional Assessments.  Certainly, more demand!  And, because of water transfers, very serious challenge to Eastern Colorado

**Notes:**
The USGCRP Agriculture Sector and Water Sector reports are also germane.  Unfortunately for marginal farming and ranching, there  seems to be little chance of some sort of sharp or large national impact on agriculture, that would stimulate a national response.  

The rural areas may be just left to wither, or perhaps one might say, continue to wither.

It is important that so much of small agriculture and rural operations is already economically not thriving.  The very large agribusiness multi-national corporations are doing very well, and they already have access to the best science money can buy, so there seems little worry on their behalf.   But what about the rest of the story?

## Small Farms: Too Important to Ignore!

- A LOT of land is in family-supported farms
- U.S.: the 2% paradox:
- 2% of farms produced half of 1997 sales
- But, 56% of farms produced only 2% of sales
- Colorado: about the same... large land area!
- 47% of “farms” make 1% of sales -- on 13% of land in farms
- 73% of farms get 5% of sales, 43% of farmland
- 4% of farms make 73% of sales
- (Source: USDA ERS; 1997 Ag. Census, U.S., Colorado highlights Farm Structure “briefing room”)

**Notes:**
A little context for why small agriculture is so important...
Easy to be snide about the obviously non-commercial farms, and how many they are.  Tax benefits for agricultural land are persuasive, and people truly love land and animals...  And, indeed, that  isn’t  where the food comes from, even though organics are growing at 20% per year -- far faster than other parts of U.S. agriculture...  but aside from the market -- this is land management!  AND, LAND MANAGEMENT IS CLIMATE SENSITIVE

It’s not just ornamental hay-burners -- this is becoming a huge part of rural land and resource management.  In Colorado, the 43% of land in farms is 13 MILLION, 459 THOUSAND acres... 

That includes 2.5 MA of 1.7 to 40 acre “ranchettes” -- FOUR times the area of all towns and cities in Colorado -- will DOUBLE in less than 40 years (Theobald et al.)

## Newcomers and Exurban Development

- The “ranchette” phenomenon -- currently 4 times the area occupied by all the cities and towns in Colorado -- but forecast to double in 30-40 years
- Part of the confusing picture of land management by non-farmers and people whose interests are not very commercial
- Bad news -- plenty of horror stories of over-grazing and weed farms
- Good news -- many can afford good manage-ment, and don’t need to make money here
- But -- are they going to be good neighbors?

**Notes:**
Of the > 2.5 million acres in very small pieces --Theobald and his group estimate that  80-90% is in “ranchettes” already -- exempt from all county regulations and out side municipalities.  These are not making a living for their owners, obviously.  They are using land in new ways.  They may badly need climate services as well as all sort of extension.

According to Extension agent assigned this problem, also exempt from knowledge or interest requirements.  They lack long experience.

Who is working to reach these important new parts of the rural landscape?  They are not undercapitalized hippies trying to live on their own yogurt, and they are not buying the ugliest parts of the landscape, either.  

The environmental impacts may be disproportionate, given the choices of location.  If they’re not on the ridgeline, they’re likely to be in the most valuable habitat, and they’re always likely to be keeping some animals.  The fire management issues in the forests and mountains have their match in range and soil management issues on the plains.

## The Importance of Small Agriculture in Colorado -- Environment 

- Boulder Creek Case study:
- <1% of water body surface is natural
- 18-20% of riparian vegetation supported by the ditches and canals
- South Platte: More than 10% of stream miles are “ditch and canal”-- unknown percent of wetlands and riparian habitat are related, too
- Urban and suburban environmental amenity from ditches and reservoirs
- Real estate value and small town attractiveness

**Notes:**
A case-study of Boulder Creek Watershed found only 1% of standing water body surface to be natural.... On the City of Boulder Open Space, 18 to 20% of the riparian vegetation is supported by ditches and canals.

It is hard to judge the extent to which this is representative of the County as a whole, or the Front Range or Eastern Plains.  It may be much more away from tributary inflows.  There is very little ecological study of canals and ditches as parts of the ecology.  Here, we’re south of Prairie Potholes and north of the depressional playa wetlands, and the literature concentrates on mainstems and important changes there.  

To the extent that climate services can help avoid environmental problems in the management of water, it will be very valuable to everyone!

It is clear that people like being near water and streams, and that there have been substantial real estate value associated with these features.  These are a major environmental amenity, in urban and suburban areas,  and important for rural towns hoping to attract and keep residents.

## The water “distribu-tary” infrastruc-ture is environ-mentally important 

- The water “distribu-tary” infrastruc-ture is environ-mentally important
- in the dry West -- even in Metro Denver

**Notes:**
Metro Denver, for example, has a lot of old distributary features built for irrigation, and they bring a lot of pleasure and value to people’s lives.  The most famous, the Highline Canal, is used by thousands every day as a recreational facility, and backbone of a growing network of trails.  
The point is that “small ag” and small ag water use is far more important to a variety of public interests than the small dollar value of sales would indicate.  Given the enormous investment in erosion control, for instance, climate and weather support is not a big leap into pork barrel politics...

## Arkansas River Basin in Colorado

**Notes:**
Turn now to a case study of the Arkansas River Basin in Eastern Colorado. 

## Where does Arkansas River water go?

- Municipal Use versus other use -- average withdrawals by owner _before_ the 2002 drought

- CITIES
- Colorado Springs                                                 76,000 acre-feet
- Pueblo				             38,659
- Aurora				             35,459
- Canon City		                               5,703
- Pueblo West			               3,100
- Florence			                               2,067
- Lamar				                  900
- Municipal Use Total		       161,888   (11.97% of CO use)
- Kansas State Line Flows	           192,358
- Rocky Mountain Steel	                          76,779   (5.68% of CO use)
- Agriculture, Irrigation              1,113,647   (82.35% of CO use)
- TOTAL used from Arkansas River                     1,544,672
- (Compiled by _Pueblo Chieftain_ from Frying Pan-Arkansas, trans-mountain diversions used by SECWCD average 69,200 acre-feet; SECWCD Annual Reports; State Engineer; 19Dec1999)

**Notes:**
Arkansas Valley water is coveted and sales to out-of-basin use are very controversial.  There is still a lot that could be transferred... But, with high social and environmental externalities!  And, tremendous controversy, as well.

This case is squarely in the squeeze on agricultural water -- and, the area is very heavily dependent on farming and ranching; Weld County, in the South Platte, is consistently #8 or 9 in Ag. Sales in the U.S. -- lots of livestock feeding and meat packing -- but Ag. Income for the South Platte was 1.5% of total income in 1990, when the Arkansas Valley (excluding Pueblo) got 26% of total income from Ag.  If you add back the City of Pueblo, with a huge share of the population, it was still 7%.

## Near-term “Shopping List”

-  **Flash flood** threats and basic monitoring – unseasonal conditions
-  **Soil moisture** and evaporative losses – Widely wanted!
-  **Range **grass growing conditions – soil moisture and windiness
-  Range cattle watering conditions and **small reservoir **ET losses
**"Calibration"** of forecasts to apply better to rural areas,  storm and general weather patterns
-  **Local** packages of information
-  **Forms** of information – more visuals, mapped, and "now versus last year versus normal"
- Improved and additional **snow and SNOTEL **information
**Frost **dates – forecast of different from normal
- Fire and **burning **weather – for wildfire, field or prescribed burning
- Cloud **seeding **forecasts (snowmaking and hail reduction)

**Notes:**
So, what did agriculture people want for weather and climate information?  We did not separate weather from climate, since the public doesn’t  seem to, and we didn’t want to bog down in distinctions about which part of the “seamless suite” of forecast products we were discussing.    A few points to note in particular:

The idea of  “calibration” -- how to apply that forecast to this place -- Oldtimers know a lot of this, but newcomers do not, and with increasing variation, oldtimers are increasingly frustrated in some places.  Maybe the weather is always “weird but within the normal range...”?

Now versus last year versus normal -- a range Ph D first suggested that, from his teaching.  Last year is best remembered, in all its variables of market as well as weather, so most easily understood.

## Most Requested Forecasts 

- Flows -- volume of water available for use -- the earlier, the better, of course, but... key dates now:
- December, for year coming, to allocate expenses for tax reasons
- April 1 when most distributing organizations determine the size of a share in a water project
- May change with new opportunities for transfers
- Flash flood hazards -- especially unexpected times; large catchment areas!
- ideally, capture extra water
- more often: interfere with operations, threaten integrity of canals, blow-outs, sedimentation

**Notes:**
These are fairly obvious, but still... badly wanted.  

The usefulness  of flow forecasts may change a great deal with increased markets and easier transfers of water from farm to farm, ditch to ditch, and agriculture to cities.  More on that below.

The flash-flood problem for long ditches involves being in places for which people believe little attention is paid, perhaps, in terms of live forecaster observation.  
Ditches by design intercept a lot of drainages and often large catchment areas, so they are vulnerable to seemingly remote events.

## Most Requested Forecasts

- Soil Moisture -- at all time scales, please!
- There are 48 soil-moisture and ET measuring stations in Colorado (COAGMET), but how to use that info if you have it?
- There is a lot of interest in forecasting the soil moisture for the next few days, to know about adjusting irrigation schedules
- On the 3 to 10 days ahead basis, gets much more practical given mechanics of ditches and water storage (varies a lot!)
- On seasonal scale, could help choices of land treatment, residue retention, cropping

**Notes:**
People told us there was very little information available; some richer operations buy measurements, but most just probe and apply experience.   The Drought Monitor is popular with technical advisors (like NRCS) for the big picture, but seems to have been getting public exposure only with the 2002 Drought, when it started to be reprinted or referred to in the ag press and some newspapers.  Hopefully, that will be “here to stay”, but it isn’t a forecast.   
Sublimation info and forecasts were mentioned, too.
A serious and tractable question: how well can you apply information from another place to your place?  I see room for a lot of private enterprise helping “calibrate” soils and local microclimates  to reference points.

## Most Requested Forecasts

- Range conditions -- moisture and ET-forcing factors -- also on many time scales
- The longer-time scale interests relate to careful management of different **forage** types and allocation of **pastures** available; ideally, season-ahead, year-ahead -- avoid range degradation by knowing when to graze which lands (cool or warm season grasses, etc)
- The shorter-scale interests: **stock water **management has big effects on net profit or loss, since it affects distance walked, and may require trucking water, or moving stock away

**Notes:**
Wind at the surface, as well as night-time and day temperatures and cloudiness...  And, always, even with some forecast for a TV market, what about where I am?  
Seasonal forecasts certainly would help with planning where to lease pasture in or out of one’s operation.  This a huge bet stock growers place.  Newcomers may catch on, too.
The negative externalities of non-point pollution from runoff are affected, as well as biodiversity and wildlife habitat considerations.  Consider the fate of all those prairie potholes affected by grazing and farming management; wetlands are in bad shape.
And, it would hardly hurt to point out that surface roughness has a big effect, and that a little shelter can make a difference...

## Most Requested Forecasts

- The baling forecast -- especially for the semi-arid West -- perhaps especially near horse lovers
- Alfalfa is surprisingly valuable
- helps the soil and other crops
- flexible in water use
- cash faster than most other crops
- Grown on about 39% of Colorado’s irrigated crop-lands (varies year to year)
- But, very big range in value, depending on bale quality, which depends on humidity and moisture levels when cut, dried, and baled

**Notes:**
This is the cause of a lot of lost sleep -- bale the same cutting in the best time, and get it stacked safely and you might get $120 a ton -- maybe much more in a drought year... but bale at the worst time, perhaps when its wetted by too much dew and gets moldy, or when its baked dry and powders and has no resilience, and you might be lucky to get $50 a ton...  Humidity, windiness at the surface, and all that ET stuff, cloudiness and precip, dew...

May sound odd, but this can be the difference between a good year and bad year for a lot of farms.  It is very important since almost everyone includes alfalfa and less often other hay.  The demand will only increase as more horse-lovers move out from cities.

## Longer-term and Climate Information “Shopping List”

**Irrigation season** forecasting, for water banking and marketing
- Forthcoming growing season **degree-days**
**Localization **of forecasts; geographic specificity
- Requests and concerns for long-term **climatology support **for decision-making and risk understanding
- The concept and application of "**probable maximum precipitation**" in dam safety
**Reliability** standards and measures of confidence for forecast
**River forecast center** incorporation of forecast information

**Notes:**
 I want to mention the requests for re-thinking “PMP” standards.  The issue is this:  on one hand, there is evidence that more of the precipitation will be in intense events, which one expects to increase flash flood hazards, and dam safety problems.  On the other hand, there is increasing desire for small storage, as large reservoir ideas hit more and more obstacles and expense.  If small storage is held to standards too high to be affordable, small ag will lose the water before municipalities.  So far, I have not heard anything about use of easements as a safety measure, but why not?
Water-banking, dry-year options, and other conditional transfers are increasingly endorsed, but may depend on acceptance of forecasts to achieve best economic results.

## Form of Requested Forecasts

- Now versus last year versus “normal” -- not necessarily 30-year WMO normal, but defined
- Graphics are good -- but avoid confusion from unfamiliar graphics (contours of probability?) -- good research by CLIMAS group on this; much more could be done on interpretability.
- NOAA Hurricane Prediction Center and Weather Channel -- the default models?
- Internet is insufficient -- especially for “graying farmers” -- many will not make the leap
- Poor and old wiring is often overwhelmed in rural areas

**Notes:**
We surveyed people on sources of information they did use and one surprise was that everyone listens to the radio, and most get some TV, and they resent over-hyped “trouble coming!” stories.
Graphics and maps with reference points are wanted so you can locate yourself!

No single source dominated weather and climate information, though satellite-service from DTN is well-regarded with those who can afford it, and who cannot stand the phone-line internet.  But, information use is limited by acceptance and risk-aversion more than real inability to find out what a source said.

## Three Kinds of Climate Information Applications in Agricultural Water Management

- Long-term: Dry-Year Options for Transfer Away
- Can use climate forecast and other triggers
- Can use schedule of prices for different costs
- May have to be fairly long-lived arrangements
- Pre-Season Allocations, Crop Choices and Management Decisions
- Choice of crops and cultivars - e.g. 2002 vs 2003
- Choice of whether to lease in water or transfer it out
- In-Season Re-allocations
- Respond to changing crop conditions and prices (futures and the big market!)
- Respond to changing water prices

**Notes:**
In the Spring of 2003, Colorado planted about 200,000 acres less corn than previously, and in the Fall of 2003, about that much “extra” acreage was planted in wheat.  The Extension experts take this NASS data as solid evidence of pre-season risk-avoidance by crop-switching.  In this case, the soil moisture was still poor.  
Irrigation management under “deficit” conditions is increasingly promoted on the basis of economic yields, rather than just large crops, and the demand for information is changing.

Long-term options are still institutionally problematic, but increasingly favored in public discourse.  Climate forecasts would be critical to making the best use of options in any given year.

## Expert Systems/Services Wanted?

- Irrigation Scheduling -- already publicly-provided scheduling tools, but not yet using forecasts for planning (e.g., seasonal scale)
- Water Consumption “Efficiency” -- easier ways to investigate possible transfers, what can be considered available under different conditions
- Cooperative Management modeling and design packages -- Ditch companies must modernize or be lost, and individualized farm scales of decision-making are not producing desirable results in many cases.

**Notes:**
This is the presenter’s opinion, not necessarily that of anyone interviewed.

## Priorities

- Better **“threats”** forecasting for rural areas, for shoulder seasons
**Calibration** assistance -- help people relate their operations to well-measured reference points (e.g. Cities, COAGMET ET stations, etc)
- Development of affordable **packages** of expert systems and services for better decision-making and planning to sustain small acreage and small agriculture
- Training needed?
- Multi-disciplinary and slow but very important!

**Notes:**
This is also the presenter’s opinion on suggestions for first steps in climate services integrated with weather services.

The last point:  internet access is poor in many rural areas, due to old phone wiring, so current highly graphic and button-loaded pages are quite difficult for many would-be users with slow modems.  
For the threats forecasts, modernized Weather Radio and links to other radio and TV advising of “headlines” and “more information at....”  would be a popular choice.  Some oldtimers will not use internet no matter what, but one expects newcomers to use it.  
And, the “growth area” in US agriculture now is organics and direct sales of vegetables and horticulture, with increasing meat, so interest in threats and crop-switching information may go up!
Hard to imagine your information NOT being wanted!

## Thank you!

**Notes:**
A dual-purpose slide -- this is well-irrigated in both senses... and this is alfalfa, “the queen of forages” according to its admirers.