# Presentation: 060668

## Southeast River Forecast Center

**North Florida Visit**
**July 17-20, 2006**

***Jeff Dobur***
***Senior Hydrologist***
***National Weather Service***
***Southeast River Forecast Center***

## TOPICS

**TOPICS**

**   ****River Forecasts – How are they created?**
**   ****Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations**
**    ****Future North Florida Hydrologic Operations**
**    ****Challenges for North Florida Hydrology**

## Need Data

**Need Data**

**About 500 Hydrologic Data Gages**

**About 2200 Rainfall   Data Gages**

**About 29 **
**WSR-88Ds**

## Basic Forecast Process

**River Forecasts – How are they created?**

**Basic Forecast Process**

- Observed
- Precipitation

- Future
- Precipitation

- SAC-SMA Model
- Rain to Runoff

***Basin***
***Watershed***

- Rating Curve
- Stages to Flows

- Unit Hydrograph
- Runoff to Flow

- Upstream Flow

**River Gage**

- Basin Local Flow

- Total  Flow
- (cfs)

- Forecaster
- Modification

**Forecast**
**To WFO**

## River Forecasts – How are they created?

**Sacramento Runoff Model**

**River Forecasts – How are they created?**

## River Forecasts – How are they created?

**River Forecasts – How are they created?**

**IFP – Forecaster Adjustments**

## River Forecasts – How are they created?

**River Forecasts – How are they created?**

**Forecast**
**To WFO**

**Public/EMA/Media**

- Stage Forecast

- Flood Warning

## Four Functions of RFC

**Four Functions of RFC**

**Continuous hydrometeorological data assimilation, river basin modeling, and hydrologic forecast preparation.**
**Technical support and interaction with WFOs.**
**Technical support and interaction with outside water management agencies and users.**
**Performance of non-real-time operational work which includes model calibration and database management.**

## Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations

**Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations**

- Choctawhatchee

- Apalachicola

- Suwannee

**Major Basin Groups**

- Chattahoochee

- Flint

- Pea

- Withlacoochee

- Santa Fe

- St Marks

## More to come!

**Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations**

**SERFC North Florida Forecast Sites**
**	****19 Suwannee**
**	****4 Apalachicola**
**	****1 Choctawhatchee**
**	****7 South Alabama**

**Daily Forecasts**

**Flood Only Forecasts**

**More to come!**

## Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations

**Monitor heavy rain relative to Basins in real time**
**  ****Monitor to both observed and expected rain**
**  ****Monitor spatial distribution relative to basins**
**  ****Stay ahead of the rain**

**Rain relative to basin**

**Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations**

**Recent Projects and Improvements**

## Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations

**Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations**

**Recent Projects and Improvements**

- Fast Response Basins

- Site Specific Model

## Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations

**Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations**

**Recent Projects and Improvements**

## Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations

**Recent Projects and Improvements**

**Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)**

**Generalized procedure for making medium and long-range probabilistic forecasts of streamflow and streamflow related variables = Water Resource Tool.**

## Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations

**Current North Florida Hydrologic Operations**

**Recent Projects and Improvements**

**Flood Mapping used alongside E-19 Impact Data**

## Future North Florida Hydrologic Operations

**  ****Improve on recent projects – flood mapping, ESP, etc**
**  ****Distributed Hydrologic Modeling vs Lumped Model**
**  ****Storm Surge Flood Prediction – ****Flood Wave, Hydraulic modeling**
**  ****Improved Small Basin Flash Flood Guidance**
**  ****Better and more timely rainfall prediction**
**  ****More to come!**

**Future Projects and Improvements**

## Population Increases and Urban Flooding

**Challenges for North Florida Hydrology**

**Population Increases and Urban Flooding**

**Spatial distribution of the average annual number of flash flood events per 1000 square miles by county across the southeastern United States from 1994-2004.  Red color shades indicate areas of elevated numbers of flash flood events.**

## Tools for improved Water Management

**Challenges for North Florida Hydrology**

**Water Rights and Water Resources**

## Tropical Storms – Inland Flooding

**Tropical Storms – Inland Flooding**

## Tropical Storms – Inland Flooding

**Challenges for North Florida Hydrology**

## HURRICANE DENNIS

**HURRICANE DENNIS**

- ~ 400 MILES

## Tropical Storms – Inland Flooding

**Challenges for North Florida Hydrology**

**Tropical Storms – Inland Flooding**

## Thank You

**Improved Skill and Awareness will be Key to Our Success**

**Thank You**