# Presentation: 118591

## Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon Productivity and Hatchery Production 

**Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon Productivity and Hatchery Production **

## What do we mean by “Productivity”

**What do we mean by “Productivity”**

- Measure of a population’s ability to replace itself.
- “Population growth rate”
- “Trend in Abundance” is the manifestation of long-term population growth rate
- Incorporates life stage specific survival, fecundity, age structure, and behavior

## Presentation Outline

**Presentation Outline**

- Trends in Abundance
- Hatchery Production
- Management Actions
- Critical Uncertainties

## Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon Population and ESU Structure

**Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon Population and ESU Structure**

-  One remaining population
- Lyons Ferry Hatchery genetics very similar to natural-origin (endemic brood program)
- Reduced distribution within assessable habitat
-  Two extinct populations
- Marsing Reach
- Salmon Falls

## Slide 5

## Average Adult Returns to Snake River Basin by Decade  

**Average Adult Returns to Snake River Basin by Decade  **

-     = Natural/wild Origin
-     = Hatchery Origin

## Estimated Return of Fall Chinook

**Estimated Return of Fall Chinook**
**Adult Returns to Lower Granite Dam, 1975-2007**

**    ****= Natural Origin**
**    ****= Hatchery Origin**
**    ****= Out-of-Basin Hatchery Strays**

- Draft Escapement Goal = 39,110

**Notes:**
Escapement goal is 39,110 is adults and jacks to Lower Monumental Dam including both hatchery origin (24,750 and 14,360 natural origin fish). The graph is limited to Lower Granite Dam adults. The adult return management goals listed below includes both hatchery and natural origin adult abundance goals based on current knowledge. The interim hatchery-origin adult abundance goal is based on current hatchery production capabilities and survival rates but does not include any adult contribution from the USACOE Transportation Study wild surrogate production group. The long-term hatchery-origin adult goal is based on the original compensation goals developed for the Lower Snake River Compensation Program (LSRCP) and the adult return goal for full production from Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery (NPTH).  Included in both the interim and long-term hatchery-origin adult escapement goals is an estimate of adult contribution from the Idaho Power Company (IPC) program whose mitigation responsibility is only expressed in juvenile production. In order to reach the identified long-term goals either an increase in smolt-to-adult survival or further expansion of production capabilities will need to occur. 
The interim natural-origin adult abundance goals are based on recent estimates of sustainable natural population levels. Adjustments to the self-sustaining natural production goals will be based on future assessments of habitat quality, quantity, productivity, and limiting factors (hydropower system operations). The long-term natural-origin adult goal is based on that found in the 1975 USACOE LSRCP Special Report. Parties assume that progress toward all the goals will occur concurrently and will be a function of program implementation and smolt-to-adult survival. 
Hatchery-Origin Adult Return Goals 
Interim goal is to return 14,568 hatchery-origin adults above Lower Monumental Dam – comprised of 9,988 from LSRCP, 2,290 from NPTH, and 2,290 from IPC. 
Long-term goal is to return 24,340 hatchery-origin adults above Lower Monumental Dam – comprised of 18,300 from LSRCP, 3,750 from NPTH, and 2,290 from IPC.
Provide approximately 4,750 adults annually to meet the interim hatchery production and Transportation Study broodstock requirements. This total is comprised of 3,950 adults needed for Lyons Ferry Hatchery and 800 for Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery.
Natural-Origin Adult Return Goals
Maintain genetic attributes and life history characteristics of the naturally spawning, Chinook aggregate by sustaining a minimum adult (hatchery and/or natural-origin) spawner abundance threshold of 7,500 adults.
Achieve ESA delisting by attaining interim population abundance in the Snake River of at least 2,500 naturally produced spawners and an eight year geometric mean cohort replacement rate exceeding 1.0 during the eight years. 
Interim goal is to achieve a self-sustaining population of 8,250 natural-origin adult fall Chinook above Lower Monumental Dam. This is comprised of a natural spawning population of 6,500 for the Snake River mainstem and its tributaries, 1,250 for the Clearwater River, and 500 for the Grande Ronde River.
Long term goal is to achieve a self-sustaining population of 14,360 natural-origin adult fall Chinook above Lower Monumental Dam.
Maintain out of basin straying above Lower Granite Dam at levels less than 10%.

## Abundance and Productivity MetricsICTRT 12-21-06 Draft Assessment 

**Abundance and Productivity Metrics****ICTRT 12-21-06 Draft Assessment**

| 10-year geomean natural abundance | 1,273 |
| --- | --- |
| 10-year (1990-1999) return/spawner productivity | 1.24 |
| 23-year (1977-1999) return/spawner productivity | 0.82 |
| Beverton-Holt fit productivity (1990-1999) | 1.30 |
| Beverton-Holt fit productivity (1977-1999) | 0.84 |
| Lambda productivity estimate (1990-1999) | 1.31 |
| Lambda productivity estimate (1977-1999) | 1.14 |
| Average proportion natural origin spawners (recent 10 years) | 46% |
| Reproductive success adj. for hatchery origin spawners | n/a |

## Number of Fall Chinook Redds

**Number of Fall Chinook Redds**
**Counted above Lower Granite Dam, 1988-2007**

**  ****First Adult Returns**
**from Supplementation**

## Overall distribution of redds upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir (1988 – 2006 Average )

**Overall distribution of redds upstream of Lower Granite Reservoir ****(1988 – 2006 Average )**

## Snake River Fall Chinook Salmon Hatchery Production

- Past
- Egg bank program – Kalama/Hagerman 1976-1984
- Lyons Ferry releases below Granite 1984-1994 (LSRCP Mitigation)
- Present
- USvOR dispute, releases above Lower Granite Dam,
- 	FCAP acclimation 1995-present
- NPTH 2003 – Present
- IPC Mitigation
- Future
- US v OR Agreement TBD

**Hatchery Facilities and Release Locations**

**Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery**

**Oxbow Hatchery**

## Snake River fall Chinook Salmon Production Goals

| Funding Source | Production Facility | Production Capacity |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  | 1+ | 0+ |
| Lower Snake River Compensation Plan | Lyons Ferry Hatchery | 900,000 | 2,200,000 |
| Idaho Power Company | Oxbow Hatchery | 0 | 200,000 |
| Idaho Power Company | Umatilla Hatchery | 0 | 800,000 |
| Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program2 | Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery | 0 | 1,400,000 |
| Total |  | 900,000 | 4,600,000 |

**Notes:**
Management of Snake River fall Chinook occurs under the jurisdictional authority of three states (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington), two Tribes (Nez Perce Tribe and Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation), and two federal agencies (NOAA Fisheries and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service). All of these fishery managers are parties to US v. Oregon. The premise of the production program embodied in this plan is that over the near-term, hatchery and natural spawning will include hatchery and natural origin fish, but that hatchery fish will comprise the majority of both components. 

## Slide 14

| Priority | Production Program |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Rearing Facility | Number | Age | Release Location(s) | Marking  |
| 1 | Lyons Ferry | 450,000 | 1+ | On station | 225KAdCWT+VIE
225K CWT +VIE |
| 2 | Lyons Ferry | 150,000 | 1+ | Pittsburg Landing | 70K AdCWT
80K CWT only |
| 3 | Lyons Ferry | 150,000 | 1+ | Big Canyon  | 70K AdCWT
80K CWT only |
| 4 | Lyons Ferry | 150,000 | 1+ | Captain John Rapids | 70K AdCWT
80K CWT only |
| 5 | Lyons Ferry | 200,000 | 0+ | On station | 200K AdCWT |
| 6 | Lyons Ferry | 500,000 | 0+ | Captain John Rapids  | 100K AdCWT
100K CWT only
300K Unmarked |
| 7 | Lyons Ferry | 500,000 | 0+ | Big Canyon | 100K AdCWT
100K CWT only
300K Unmarked |
| 8 | Lyons Ferry | 200,000 | 0+ | Pittsburg Landing | 100K AdCWT
100K CWT only |
| 9 | Oxbow | 200,000 | 0+ | Hells Canyon Dam | 200K AdCWT |
| 10 | Lyons Ferry | 200,000 | 0+ | Pittsburg Landing | 200K Unmarked |
| 11 | Lyons Ferry | 200,000 | 0+ | Direct stream evaluation 
Near Captain John Rapids | 200K AdCWT |
| 12 | DNFH/Irrigon | 250,000 | 0+ | Transportation Studya | 250K PIT tag only |
| 13 | Lyons Ferryb | 200,000 | 0+ | Grande Ronde River | 200K AdCWT |
| 14 | DNFH/Irrigon | 78,000 | 0+ | Transportation Studya | 78K PIT tag only |
| 15 | Umatilla | 200,000 | 0+ | Hells Canyon Dam | 200K AdCWT |
| 16 | Lyons Ferryb | 200,000 | 0+ | Grande Ronde River | 200K Unmarked |
| 17 | Umatilla | 600,000 | 0+ | Hells Canyon Dam | 600K Ad only |
| TOTAL | Yearlings | 900,000 |  |  |  |
|  | Subyearlings | 3,528,000 (of which 328,000 are for Transportation Study) |  |  |  |

**Notes:**
Management of Snake River fall Chinook occurs under the jurisdictional authority of three states (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington), two Tribes (Nez Perce Tribe and Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation), and two federal agencies (NOAA Fisheries and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service). All of these fishery managers are parties to US v. Oregon. The premise of the production program embodied in this plan is that over the near-term, hatchery and natural spawning will include hatchery and natural origin fish, but that hatchery fish will comprise the majority of both components. 

## Total Fall Chinook Salmon Releases in Snake River Basin

## Release Location in Snake River Basin

## Hatchery Operations Past and Present 

|  | Past | Present |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Hatchery | Lyons Ferry | Lyons Ferry 
Acclimation Ponds
Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery 
Idaho Power Company |
| Purpose | Egg Bank | Supplementation/
Mitigation |
| Release Location | Downstream of Lower Granite Dam | Upstream  and Downstream of Lower Granite Dam |
| Broodstock | HXH | HxN (30% natural) |

## Estimated Return of Fall Chinook

**Estimated Return of Fall Chinook**
**Adult Returns to Lower Granite Dam, 1975-2007**

**  ****First Adult Returns**
**from Supplementation**

**ICTRT minimum viability threshold = 2,500**

## Management Actions Past and Present 

|  | Past | Present |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Hatchery | Lyons Ferry | Lyons Ferry 
Acclimation Ponds
Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery 
Idaho Power Company
 |
| Habitat |  | Stable Hells Canyon Flows
Flow/Temperature Augmentation
 |
| Hydrosystem | Transportation | Transportation
Summer Spill
 |
| Harvest | Reduction in Take | Reduction in Take |

## Slide 20

## Cooperative and Joint Management Effort 

|  | Funding Source | Implementers |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Hatcheries  | Lower Snake River Compensation Plan
BPA/NPCC
IPC | WDFW
NPT
IPC
CTUIR
ODFW
IDFG |
| Monitoring and Evaluation | Lower Snake River Compensation Plan
BPA/NPCC
BLM
IPC
COE
PSC (Southern Boundry Fund) | Redd Counts (NPT, IPC, USFWS, WDFW)
Juvenile behavior and survival (USFWS, NPT, USGS, NOAA)
Hatchery performance (WDFW, NPT)
Run Reconstruction (WDFW, NPT,  NOAA, UofI,  USvOR-TAC)  
 |

## What We Do Know

**What We Do Know**

- Increases in abundance and productivity have occurred, but the extent to which those improvements in overall life-cycle survival effects on fall Chinook salmon will be maintained and can be attributed to recent changes in management vs merely reflective of improvements in ocean productivity is uncertain.
- Hatchery releases upstream of Lower Granite Dam have increased the abundance of spawners in natal habitat, with assumed contribution to increased production.

## What We Do Know (cont.) 

**What We Do Know (cont.)**

**Adult abundance via annual run-reconstruction of fish to Lower Granite Dam.**
**Natural-origin adult abundance near delisting criteria.**
**Total abundance is well below historic levels and current management goals.    **
**Adult distribution via annual aerial redd counts.**
**70/30 rule between Snake and Clearwater. **
**Mainstem state and tribal harvest via coded-wire tag recoveries and creel surveys.**

## Things We Don’t Know

**Things We Don’t Know**

**Contribution/influence of hatchery fish on natural productivity.**
**Long-term viability of an ESU with only a single extant population spatial structure and diversity. **
**Extant and extirpated habitat carrying capacity.**
**Estimates of annual juvenile abundance / production.**
**Survival rates for hydrosystem passage routes or operational strategies.**
**Role of juvenile life history diversity.**