# Presentation: 921875

## Industrial Sector Energy Demand ProjectionsAnnual Energy Outlook 2002

**Brian Unruh**
**Energy Information Administration**

**National Energy Modeling System Conference**
**March 12, 2002**

## Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Prices2000 Dollars per Million Btu

## Industrial Sector Gross Outputbillion 1992 dollars

**Notes:**
2.6% per year increase in aggregate industrial gross output between 2000 and 2020.

## Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Consumption

**Notes:**
Total delivered energy consumption increases by 1.1% per year between 2000 and 2020.
Petroleum includes asphalt, LPG and petrochemical feedstocks, still gas, etc.
Natural Gas includes lease and plant fuel and feedstocks
Coal includes steam coal, metallurgical coal and coke

## Industrial Sector Delivered Energy Intensitythousand Btu / 1992 dollar of output

**Notes:**
1.4% per year decrease in aggregate industrial energy intensity between 2000 and 2020.

## Sectors Included in the NEMS Industrial Model

- Food
- Paper
- Bulk Chemicals
- Refining *
- Glass
- Cement
- Steel
- Aluminum
- Metal-Based Durables
- Balance of Manufacturing

- Agriculture – Crops
- Agriculture – Livestock
- Coal Mining
- Oil & Gas Extraction *
- Other Mining
- Construction

**Non-Manufacturing**

**Manufacturing**

## Summary of Industrial Model Structure

**Buildings Component**

-  Lighting
-  HVAC
-  Facility Support
-  Onsite Transportation

**Boiler Component**

-  Steam Demand
-  Cogeneration

- Process Step Industries

-  Paper
-  Glass
-  Cement
-  Steel
-  Aluminum

**Process and Assembly Component**

- End Use Industries

-  Food
-  Bulk Chemicals
-  Metal-Based Durables
-  Balance of Manufacturing

- For Manufacturing Sectors

## Changes for AEO2002 Model

- Updated Manufacturing parameters based on MECS98
- Updated Non-Manufacturing parameters based on information from EIA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the U.S. Census Bureau
- Industries now classified based on NAICS
- Aluminum Industry includes primary and secondary

## 1998 Shares of Gross Output & Delivered Energy Consumption

## 1998 Delivered Energy Intensitythousand Btu / 1992 dollar of output

**Notes:**
Cement and bulk chemicals are the outliers, even among the energy intensive manufacturing sectors.
Nearly 60% of the energy used in the bulk chemicals industry is feedstocks.

## Energy Intensive Manufacturing Output Grew the Slowestin the Past, and the Trend is Projected to Continue

## 2000 – 2020 Projected Annual Growth Rates

|  | Gross Output | Delivered Energy Consumption |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Energy Intensive Manufacturing | 1.2% | 0.8% |
|      Food | 1.3% | 0.9% |
|      Paper | 1.6% | 0.8% |
|      Bulk Chemicals | 1.1% | 0.9% |
|      Refining | 0.9% | 1.4% |
|      Glass | 1.2% | 0.4% |
|      Cement | 1.2% | 0.5% |
|      Steel | 0.9% | -0.2% |
|      Aluminum | 1.2% | -0.7% |
| Non-Intensive Manufacturing | 3.3% | 2.0% |
|      Metal-Based Durables | 4.0% | 2.9% |
|      Balance of Manufacturing | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Non-Manufacturing Industrial | 1.7% | 1.6% |
|      Agriculture – Crops | 1.3% | 1.0% |
|      Agriculture – Livestock | 1.1% | 0.9% |
|      Coal Mining | 1.1% | 0.8% |
|      Oil & Gas Extraction | 1.3% | 2.2% |
|      Other Mining | 1.1% | 0.7% |
|      Construction | 2.0% | 1.7% |

## 2020 Shares of Gross Output & Delivered Energy Consumption

## 2020 Delivered Energy Intensitythousand Btu / 1992 dollar of output

## Change in Delivered Energy Intensity between 2000 and 2020

**thousand Btu / 1992 dollar of output**

**Notes:**
Largest improvement in energy intensity for different reasons:
Aluminum:  increase in secondary production, which is less intensive than primary production
Steel:  shift away from blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces
Metal based durables:  rapid output growth leads to large amount of new, more efficient capacity
Sectors with decrease in energy efficiency:
Refining:  changing product slate, including low sulfur gasoline and diesel, that requires additional processing, and a crude oil slate that includes a higher proportion of heavy, high-sulfur crude that is more difficult to process
Oil & gas extraction:  lease and plant fuel consumption increases faster than output; excluding lease and plant fuel, the change in energy intensity is similar to the other mining sectors.

## Industrial Sector Energy Demand ProjectionsAnnual Energy Outlook 2002

**Brian Unruh**
**Energy Information Administration**