# Presentation: 167812

## Myths and Realities about Energy and Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in China 有关中国能源及与能源相关的CO2 排放的迷思和现状Mark D. LevineStaff Senior ScientistChina Energy Group Leadermdlevine@lbl.gov马克∙列文高级研究员中国能源组组长mdlevine@lbl.gov

## Motivation for Discussion of Myths讨论有关中国迷思的原因

**Co-operation between the U.S. and China on reducing CO****2****  emissions is essential**
**中美之间的合作对降低****CO****2****排放是至关重要的**
**This requires trust between the two countries**
**这种合作需要中美之间的信任**
**Mistrust of China in the United States on the topic of climate change is fueled by rampant misinformation**
**大量的错误信息加剧了中美之间在气候变化问题上的不信任**
**Thus, dispelling these myths is of high importance**
**因此,打破这些迷思是非常重要的**

**Notes:**
China EI target translates to over 1.5 billion tons of CO2 in five years.
In comparison, the EU commitment under Kyoto is about 300 million tons of CO2 by 2012

## Not a Myth不是一个神话

**China has the cities with the worst air pollution in the world**
**中国有世界上空气污染度最高的城市**
**For the first time, policies to improve air quality throughout China are taking effect**
**改善全国空气质量的政策第一次发挥了作用**
**There are reasons to be hopeful that this problem will be addressed with some vigor over the coming decade**
**我们有理由充满希望地相信,这个问题将在未来的****10****年里将得到积极地治理**

**Notes:**
China EI target translates to over 1.5 billion tons of CO2 in five years.
In comparison, the EU commitment under Kyoto is about 300 million tons of CO2 by 2012

## Myth: China’s subsidized energy prices give firms a competitive edge迷思:中国对能源价格的补贴将给公司竞争优势Reality: China’s energy prices are mostly at international levels or higher现状:中国的能源价格几乎处于国际水平或者更高

- Index of Industry and Energy Prices
- 工业和能源价格指数

- Residents of Guangzhou pay more ($0.16/kWh) for electricity than residents of San Francisco
- 广州的居民电费($0.16美元/度)比旧金山居民电费更高
- Natural gas prices in Shanghai are the same as in San Francisco ($10/mcf)
- 上海的天然气价格与旧金山的天然气价格相同($10美元/1000立方英寸)
- Coal prices in China ($147/t) are now higher than in the US
- 中国的煤炭价格($147美元/吨)比美国的价格更高

## Myth: Energy demand growth faster than GDP in developing countries during periods of industrialization

**However: ****From 2001 to 2005, energy demand in China changed course radically, growing more rapidly than GDP**
**然而:****从****2001****到****2005****年,中国的能源需求路线急转弯,增速远远高于****GDP****的增长**

**Myth:**** ****Energy demand growth faster than GDP ****in**** developing countries during periods of industrialization**
**迷思:****在工业化阶段,发展中国家的能源需求增长高于****GDP****增长**
**Reality:**** China, virtually unique in the developing world, has demonstrated since 1980 that this need not be the case**
**现状:****中国,是一个非常独特的发展中国家,从****1980****年开始证明了能源需求增长不一定要高于****GDP****增长**

**GDP**
**(****修订后)**

**能源**

**Notes:**
Between 1980 and 2000, China achieved a quadrupling of its GDP with only a doubling of energy consumption (Figure 1).  This was a remarkable achievement.

## Myth: China is profligate in its use of energy and becoming more so

**Myth: ****China is profligate in its use of energy and becoming more so**
**迷思:****中国挥霍地使用能源并变得更加浪费**
**Reality: ****Per capita energy use in China is only 1/8 U.S. & 1/4 EU**
**现状:****中国的人均能耗量仅为美国的****1/8****,和欧盟的****1/4**

**美国**

**西欧**

**中国**

**人均百万****BTUs**

**Notes:**
Yet, energy use per capita in China is only 1/8 that of the US and 1⁄4 that of EU. As million of Chinese move to cities from the countryside, per capita energy consumption could easily double or triple (2-3x). What we are witnessing in China is the process of modernization and urbanization, which we went through decades ago
When we talk about China’s energy growth, we should remember that we are not talking about one SUV in every garage. Rather, it is for basic services of lighting, refrigeration, air-conditioning, and to power those factories that make all those products we import from China.
Current growth trends foresee China catching up to U.S. energy levels in the next four decades.  
If everyone of China’s 1.3 billion people were to use 8 times more energy everyday (the same per capita consumption as in the U.S.), China’s carbon emissions—the main pollutant implicated in global warming—would equal the entire world’s current CO2 emissions plus 22% (i.e., China would double the entire world’s current carbon emissions plus 22 percent). 

## Myth
China will soon overtake the United States as the largest contributor to energy related CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
迷思
中国会在短时间内超过美国成为世界上最大的与能源相关的CO2排放国

Reality
By any measure of contribution to atmospheric CO2, 
the Chinese have done far less harm than the United States
现状
无论是用哪种方法计算大气中的CO2含量,中国造成的伤害远比美国少

**China will soon overtake the United States as the largest contributor to energy related CO****2**** concentration in the atmosphere**
**迷思**
**中国会在短时间内超过美国成为世界上最大的与能源相关的****CO****2****排放国**
**Reality**
**By any measure of contribution to atmospheric CO****2****, **
**the Chinese have done far less harm than the United States**
**现状**
**无论是用哪种方法计算大气中的****CO****2****含量,中国造成的伤害远比美国少**

**Notes:**
China EI target translates to over 1.5 billion tons of CO2 in five years.
In comparison, the EU commitment under Kyoto is about 300 million tons of CO2 by 2012

## Annual energy-related carbon emissions in China have been growing rapidly since 2001自2001年以来,中国每年的能源相关的碳排放迅速增长

- 百万吨二氧化碳排放

**美国**

**中国**

**全球其他国家的总排放**

## But per capita emissions are much lower than those of the U.S.但是中国的人均排放量远低于美国的人均排放量

**人均二氧化碳排放(吨)**

**美国**

**中国**

**全球平均**

## And cumulative per-capita emissions are very much smaller than those of the U.S.而且,中国的累积人均排放量要远远低于美国的累积人均排放量

**累积人均二氧化碳排放**
** ****(吨)**

**美国**

**中国**

## Myth 迷思

**China is doing little to reduce its growth of CO****2**** emissions **
**中国在降低****CO****2****排放增长方面的努力非常少**

**Reality ****现状**

** ****China’s Target of 20% Energy Intensity Reduction by 2010:  **
**	****1.5 billion metric ton CO****2**** reduction **
**中国设立的到****2010****年降低****20%****能耗强度的目标:**
**	****减少****15****亿吨****CO****2**
**China is on a course to achieve by 2010:**
**	****>**** ****1.0**** billion metric ton CO****2**** reduction (2/3 of goal, 2005 to 2010)**
**中国正在实现此目标:**
**	**** ****>****已减少****1****0****亿吨****CO****2 ****(约为目标的****2/3****,从****2005****到****2010****)**
** **
**  ****EU commitment under Kyoto (1997): **
**	****~ 300**** million metric ton CO****2**** reduction (1997-2012)**
**欧盟在京都议定书下的承诺(****1997****年):**
**	**** ****~ ****减少****3****亿吨****CO****2 ****(从****1997****到****2012****)**

**Notes:**
China EI target translates to over 1.5 billion tons of CO2 in five years.
In comparison, the EU commitment under Kyoto is about 300 million tons of CO2 by 2012

## Myth: China is inefficient in its energy use and becoming more so.迷思:中国的能源利用非常低效,并且变得更加如此Reality: Industry consumes 70% of energy in China.  Energy intensities within industrial sub-sectors continue to decline.现状:工业消耗了中国70%的能源。工业下属部门的能源强度正持续降低

**千克****/****元(****2000****)**

- 黑色金属冶炼和压延

- 石油,炼焦和核能

- 纺织

- 电力

- 造纸

- 煤炭

- 有色金属冶炼和压延

- 化工原料和化工生产

- 非金属矿物生产

## Myth: China is hogging the world’s oil imports

**Myth:**** China is hogging the world’s oil imports**
**迷思:****中国正在抢夺世界的石油进口资源**
**Reality****: China’s imports, while growing, remain a very **
**small part of traded** **oil on world markets**
**现状:****中国的石油进口,虽然在增长,仍然仅为世界石油贸易市场上的一小部分**

## Myth: China’s vast consumption of coal dwarfs any global attempt to address climate change emissions迷思:中国大量的消耗煤炭使得全球任何减缓气候变化的努力大大降低Reality:  On a per capita basis, China consumes just slightly more than half as much coal as the U.S.! 现状:在人均水平上,中国消耗的煤炭仅为美国水平的一半多一点!

**人均煤炭消耗(吨石油当量****/****每人)**

## Myth: China’s vast coal reserves, which it is bound to use, will swamp any effort to tackle global climate迷思:中国拥有大量的煤炭资源,而且必将会利用这些煤炭,这会让任何针对全球气候变化的努力陷入困境Reality: On a per capita basis, China is not any better endowed with coal than are Kazakhstan or Poland. 现状:在人均水平上,中国所拥有的煤炭并不比哈萨克斯坦或波兰多。

**人均煤炭探明储量(吨****/****每人)**

## Observations on Working with China on Energy Efficiency与中国的能源效率合作及观察发现

**High-level government support for energy efficiency**
**1980-2000; 2006-present**
**政府对能源效率高度的支持**
**1980-2000; 2006-****至今**
**Well-placed policy research organizations**
**有良好针对性的政策研究组织**
**Belief in “scientific basis” for policy leads to high receptivity to advice based on analysis**
**相信政策应具有“科学基础”,因此对基于分析的建议有较高的接纳度**
**Commitments met**
**实现了承诺**
**Well-being of country still above individual in government and research circles**
**整个社会的福利高于在政府或研究领域中的个人**
**High skill levels**
**高度的技能水平**

**Notes:**
China EI target translates to over 1.5 billion tons of CO2 in five years.
In comparison, the EU commitment under Kyoto is about 300 million tons of CO2 by 2012