# Presentation: 180038

## The NOAA Hydrometeorological Testbed Program: Overview and Progress to Date

- Dr. David Kingsmill
- University of Colorado / CIRES
- and
- NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory
- Boulder, CO

## STIP Integrated Planning Team for Hydrologic Services(September 2002)

**Quantitative Precipitation Information (QPE & QPF)**
**      ****Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with Reliability Information**
**      ****Reliable 0-6 Hour Precip. Nowcasts**
**      ****Longer-term, Unbiased Model QPFs**
**Hydrologic Forecasting**
**	****High-resolution Flash Flood Forecasts & Warnings**
**	****Probabilistic River Forecasts Using 0-3 day QPF and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts**

***Key Information Gaps***

## STIP IPT for Hydrologic ServicesOutstanding R&D Needs

*Develop QPE Techniques That Optimally Blend Next-generation Radar, Satellite (e.g, GPM), and Rain Gauge Data*
*Improve Short-Term Radar-Satellite Precipitation Nowcasting Techniques Blended with NWP Forecasts*
*Develop High Resolution Hydrologic Forecast Models of Water Excess-Deficit at Ungauged Locations*
*Develop Ensemble NWP and Hydrologic Model Forecasts with Associated Reliability Information*
*Improve NWP Model Physics and Increase Assimilation of Existing Observational Datasets*
*Implement Hydrometeorological Testbeds to Demonstrate & Evaluate Next-Generation Datasets, Forecast Techniques, & Models*

## Developing a Testbed Concept for Hydrometeorology in NOAAJointly organized by NWS (Rich Fulton of OHD) and OAR (Marty Ralph of ETL) 20 November 2002

**Background**
- The testbed concept is gaining momentum within NOAA as a vehicle for accelerating transitions from research to operations and for fostering technology infusion to the National Weather Service.  This is evidenced by the inclusion of  testbeds as elements in a number of recent NOAA planning documents and programs, such as the NWS Science Technology Infusion Program (STIP).  Most of these elements are associated with precipitation, water cycle and hydrology.  Thus, the time for implementing a Hydro-Meteorology Testbed (HMT) may be approaching.

## R&D and Operational Perspectives:Observing Systems

- R&D

- Operations

- Testbed Domain

_*Operational Priorities*_
-  Reliability
-  Cost Effectiveness
-  COTS (plug n’ play)
-  Continuity

_*R&D Priorities*_
-  Exploratory
-  Higher Resolution
-  Multi-Sensor
-  New Variables
-  Publication

- Basic R&D

- Improved User Decisions

## Test bed concept

## Hydrometeorology TestbedPrimary Goals

- Systematically evaluate promising new methods that can influence both NWP and nowcasting using the man-machine mix forecasting paradigm.
- Assess their value in terms of improved regional performance on Flood/Flash Flood Warning and QPF GPRA measures.
- Use these results as an objective basis for decisions on transitions to operations both in the test region and nationally.

## Hydrometeorology TestbedA Broad Approach Is Required*

- Better numerical model guidance (i.e., QPF)
- Better observations for forecaster use and model assimilation and verification (i.e., QPE)
- Better physical understanding for parameterizations and conceptual models
- Better knowledge of capabilities and limitation of key tools

***i.e., There is no “Silver Bullet”**

## Testbed Definition

- “A testbed is a working relationship in a quasi-operational framework among measurement specialists, forecasters, researchers, the private sector, and government agencies aimed at solving operational and practical regional ____________________ problems with a strong connection to the end users. Outcomes from a testbed are more effective observing systems, better use of data in forecasts, improved services, products, and economic/public safety benefits. Testbeds accelerate the translation of R&D findings into better operations, services, and decision-making. A successful testbed requires physical assets as well as long-term commitments and partnerships.”

- hydrometeorological

- Hydrometeorological

*USWRP Mesoscale Observing Workshop, December 2003*

## METHODS

**METHODS**
**Physical Process Studies**
**Observing System Tests**
**Forecasting Applications**

## Winter Storm Warning Issued Based on PACJET-2002 Melting-Level Data

- Newport, OR profiler detected a lower snow level than had been expected (2700 ft vs 4000 ft).
- This caused Portland NWS to change from a Snow Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning.

- Expected
- snow level

- White et al. (2002),
*J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech.*

## HMT-2004

- BBY = Bodega Bay
- BSC = Big Sulfur Creek
- CVD = Cloverdale
- CZC = Cazadero
- FRS = Fort Ross
- GRK = Goat Rock

_**HMT-2004**_
**A Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT)  for the Russian River Watershed**

- HBG = Healdsburg
- HLD = Hopland
- LSN = Lake Sonoma
- ROD = Rio Dell
- SPT = Salt Point

## Coastal Gap-Filling X-band Radar vs. WSR-88D

- X-band

- 0        5       10     15      20      25     30
- Reflectivity (dBZ) at 0.5 deg elevation

- WSR-88D radar at KMUX
- 0102 UTC 14 Jan 03

- KMUX

- 10

- 20

- 30

- 40

- 50

- 60 km

- NOAA/ETL X-band radar at FRS
- 0059 UTC 14 Jan 03

- Reflectivity (dBZ) at 1.0 deg elevation

- 0          10           20          30          40         50

**Coastal Gap-Filling X-band Radar vs. WSR-88D**

**Nearest NEXRAD radar sees no significant echoes approaching flood-prone watershed**

**NOAA/ETL’s Coastal X-band radar fills NEXRAD gap**

- HMT WEST - Cool Season

- HMT EAST –          All Season, including Hurricane Landfall

- HMT CENTRAL – Warm Season

**Regional Implementation Strategy**

- Mean annual precipitation (inches)

**The national Hydrometeorological Testbed program will be implemented incrementally in different regions of the U.S.**

## HMT-WEST:  American River Basin 2005-2008 

- HMT-WEST:  American River Basin 2005-2008

## CALJET to PACJET to HMT

**Level of field activity**

- High

- Med

- Low

- 97  98  99  00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12

**Year**

- None

**Hydrometeorological Testbed **
**Provides Continuous Backbone Effort **
**To facilitate operational tests and transitions**

**Major new field studies********* leverage**
**backbone provided by HMT and **
**accelerate transitions to operations**

*******Future PACJETs **
**And/Or Other Projects**

**HMT**

**Sporadic traditional field studies**

## Proposed Hydrometeorology Testbed Timeline

-  (California)

- (California)

- NOAA Partners Include: OAR(ETL,NSSL,FSL,CDC,AOML), NWS(OHD,HPC,NOHRSC,WR,ER,EMC), NESDIS(ORA)

## Hydrometeorology TestbedBetter Physical Understanding

- Basis for improved parameterizations in numerical models
- Allows forecasters to create an internal conceptual model of what is controlling precipitation in a given event
- Alerts forecasters to focus on certain variables or features in the observations or models that will influence a given precipitation event

## Hydrometeorology TestbedPrimary Goals

- Systematically evaluate promising new methods that can influence both NWP and nowcasting using the man-machine mix forecasting paradigm.
- Assess their value in terms of improved regional performance on the QPF GPRA measure.
*Use these results as an objective basis for decisions on transitions to operations both in the test region and nationally. *

## Operational / Research Interaction:Cultural Differences

- Operational
- Get the forecasts out, and make them as accurate as possible
- Forecasts must be issued in a timely way
- Episodic availability of new methods is problematic
- Research
- Advance understanding, develop new tools, publish
- Publication process is time consuming but crucial
- Typically, field studies occur every few years

## Operational / Research Interaction:Cultural Differences

- Exploratory Research
- Curiosity driven, plausible impacts but highly uncertain
- Papers published in peer-reviewed journals
- Better conceptual models
- Applied Research
- Focused advances in understanding aimed at practical outcomes
- New tools and methods used for specific operational goals
- Demonstrable impacts on policy or operations

## Timeline CALJET to PACJET

- 1997-98:  CALJET field phase during strong El Nino  (Dec ‘97-Mar ’98, Monterey, CA)
- 1999: Workshop addressed science, forecasting & user needs and expanded CALJET to Pacific Northwest (Renamed PACJET)
- 2001: PACJET-01 field phase (Jan-Mar, Monterey, CA)
- 2001: Planning Workshop defines and recommends “Testbed” approach
- 2002: PACJET-02 field phase (Jan-Mar, Portland, OR)
- 2003: PACJET-03 field phase (Dec-Mar, N. CA)

## A New Approach:Hydrometeorological Testbed

## Hydrometeorology TestbedOutline of concept adopted by Hydro IPT in Sept ‘02

**STIP Question: **
**What major science and technology improvements are needed in order for the NWS to achieve its QPF SKILL performance goals in 2007 and 2012?**
**The Integrated Planning Team for Hydrology answered: **
**A key step is to Establish a Hydrometeorology Testbed**

## Hydrometeorology TestbedThe Man-Machine Mix Paradigm

- Watches and warnings are issued by forecasters.
- QPFs from HPC are created by forecasters and are then adjusted by other forecasters based on local experience.
- Observations and numerical models are used as key guidance.
- Experience and conceptual models are also essential.
- Forecasters add value as their tools (i.e., models, observations, concepts) improve.
- The greatest hydrological forecast improvements will come by improving both the tools and the ability of forecasters to use them.

## Hydrometeorology TestbedThe Challenge

- Improvements in many areas (observations, models, understanding etc) has resulted in gradual improvement in QPF.

## Hydrometeorology TestbedBetter Model Guidance

- Improving the performance of individual models through better data assimilation
- Evaluating biases in model physics, and improving their parameterization
- Increase the number and representativeness of ensemble members
- Tuning the models for heavier precipitation amounts

## Hydrometeorology TestbedBetter Observations

- Improving model initialization
- Improving detection of key triggers and precipitation features and their trends
- Develop real-time model forecast evaluation tools to help forecasters identify relatively high or low quality model forecasts, including filtering out unrealistic ensemble members
- Higher quality forecaster verification leading to improved future performance

## Hydrometeorology Testbed Knowledge of Capabilities and Limitation of Key Tools 

- Improves the ability of models to assimilate observations
- Enables forecasters to better take advantage of capabilities
- Enables forecasters to adjust for limitations in their tools

## Proposed Hydrometeorology Testbed Timeline

- FY07

- FY08

- FY09

- FY10

- FY11

- Task

- NOAA Partners Include: OAR(ETL,NSSL,FSL,CDC,AOML), NWS(OHD,HPC,NOHRSC,WR,ER,EMC), NESDIS(ORA)

- Observing System Acquisitions

- Field Deployments

- LFW Oriented

- Hydroclimate Oriented

- Observing System Tests

- Physical Process Studies

- Model verification and data assimilation

- Forecast Decision Tool Development

- Research / Operations Integration

- Testbed Impact Assessment

- HMT-WEST

- Intensive Campaign(s)

- HMT-EAST

- Intensive Campaign(s)

- HMT-WEST

- HMT-EAST

- New Equipment

- Refurbish

- Replacements, Spare Parts

- Airborne Soil Moisture, Snowpack

- Gap-Filling Radar, Polarimetric Hydrometeor ID

- Airborne Soil Moisture

- Atmospheric Rivers, Orographic Effects, Airmass Transformation,           Hurricane Decay/Precipitation

- Soil Moisture Variability,                    Streamflow Response to Precipitation

- Polarimetric Hydrometeor ID

- Multi-Sensor Precipitation Utilization in Forecasting

- GPM:  Algorithm Development, Ground Validation,              GPM Launch

- SOO’s (current or former) Working at ETL and HPC with WFO’s and RFC’s

- HMT-WEST

- Recommendations for Permanent and/or National Operational Upgrades

- HMT-EAST

- Legacy Instruments Remain

- Beyond FY11:
- Transition to HMT-CENTRAL

- Level of Activity:

- Low

- Moderate

- High

- Water Vapor Transport, Microphysical Processes

- Water Vapor Transport, Microphysical Processes

- HMT-WEST           WRF Evaluations

- HMT-EAST          HWRF Evaluations

- Operational Implementation

- Rhea Model for Orographic Precipitation

- Rhea Model

- Multi-Sensor Precip.

- GPM

## Possible HMT Management Structure

**Management Council**

**STI**

**HYD**

**HMT Advisory Panel**

**LFW**

**EM, CEO?, CLIM?**

**ETL**

**NSSL**

**FSL**

**HPC**

**OHD**

**NWS Regions (WFO’s, RFC’s**

**NOHRSC**

**EMC**

**CDC**

**STAR**

**AOML**

**Others?**

**Possible HMT Management Structure**

- Design and Implementation Role

**(CPC)**

**OCWWS**