# Presentation: 364267

## Proton and Electron Belt Models

- Road Maps

## Overview of Models

- 1-2 Years
- 50 keV – 5 MeV electron model at GEO (MSWPDV)
- 30 keV – 10 MeV electron model at LEO (MSWPDV)
- 15-500 MeV proton model at LEO (MSWPQDV)
- ~3 years
- 0.1-10 MeV proton model for LEO (MSWPV)
- 0.1-10 MeV electron model for GPS  (MSWPQDV)
- Gather and “calibrate” 0.1-10 MeV proton data for GEO to MEO
- ~5 years
- AE-8 replacement (MSWP)
- AP-8 replacement (MSWP)

- Capabilities
- M – mean or median flux
- S – Solar Cycle variation
- W – worst cases
- (5 min to 1 year)
- P – percentiles
- C – covariances
- Q – finalized calibrations
- D – full data coverage
- V – Demonstrated Validity
- What’s missing:
- Covariances
- Physical model for “reanalysis”
- Slot dynamics
**Common Requirement**
**Clean GTO/MEO/LEO measurements with full solar cycle coverage**

## We decided to postpone covariance

- Covariance is primarily useful (to customers) for computing the probability distribution of composite quantities like dose, charge deposited, or spectrum behind shielding
- (Covariances are also useful for science/space weather goals: nowcasting and data assimilation, but these are not our driving priorities)
- We made a preliminary determination that assuming COV=1 was OK for now:
- adds unknown, hopefully small, artificial width to probability distributions of composite quantities (e.g. dose)
- When we do implement covariances, we will have to decide who will be responsible for developing tools to convert full flux probability distribution (with covariances) into dose or charge deposited
- We imagine a tool like Shieldose that includes transport coefficients for some basic geometries and materials
- It should also be able to accept as input an arbitrary transport function, e.g. from Monte Carlo code

## Physical Models for Reanalysis

- The atmospheric community produces a standardized ‘reanalysis’ (via NCEP and NCAR)
- The reanalysis is built by going back as far as the data allows and running a consistent standard data assimilative physics-based global analysis model (e.g. Salammbo)
- The reanalysis provides numerous climate and weather data for the entire globe on a standard grid. The reanalysis is run after the fact, when all data are available.

- Scientists around the world use the reanalysis data for:
- Climate studies
- Seasonal climate prediction
- Climate variability studies
- Verification of climate models
- Initial/boundary conditions for regional/sub-grid-scale models
- Diagnostic studies
- Testbed for operational models
- We could derive statistical models from the ‘reanalysis’ by treating it as observations (this is similar to Vampola’s AE8min update)

## Shock Injection of Energetic Particles

-  New radiation belt created on 24 March 1991 by intense shock
- Ions and electrons with energies of _tens_ of MeV injected into slot region
- Injection took place in ninety seconds
- New belt lifetime of a few years
- Scientifically fascinating
- Significant phenomena for space weather/climate

## Shock Injection of Energetic Particles

- 	Subsequent events eagerly awaited and studied using SAMPEX and HEO s/c. 13 events observed since July 1992.
- Intensites modest relative to March 1991
- Lifetimes of more than a week or so required injection into slot, below L = 3
- Injected particles peaked at large equatorial pitch angle
- Injection of heavy ions up to Fe peak
- Loss of ions associated with storms - large Dst - breakdown of first invariant due to field distortion suspected

## Shock Injection of Energetic Particles

- Measurements adequate for scientific understanding and for radiation-belt modeling not available. Required:
- Differential energy spectra for electrons up to several MeV and ion spectra from few MeV to few tens of Mev (H to Fe)
- Good pitch angle resolution
- Equatorial measurements from L = 2 to 4
- Straightforward Solutions:
- Equip RBSP and Orbitals spacecraft with energetic electron and ion-composition sensors
- Dedicated MEO mission

## Shock Injection of Energetic Particles Present Understanding

- The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away

## Development of Interim LEO electron model

## Relevant Region of Interest for LEO electron model development

- AE8max – full spatial and energy coverage

- TSX5/ CEASE

**Relevant Region of Interest for LEO electron model development**

## Integral Flux (cm2 s sr)-1

- Integral Flux (cm2 s sr)-1
- Day 1/4/2003 – 4/14/2003

- TSX5 fluxes at L=6.5-6.7
- x100

## 6-months of SAMPEX / PET ELO

**6-months of SAMPEX / PET ELO**
**(Solar cycle available)**** **

**Notes:**
6-month plot of ELO electrons vs. L

## 4 years of TSX5 Mission Survey

**2001**

**2002**

**2003**

**2004**

**XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX**

**XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX**

**Notes:**
Episodic nature of electron events

Slot region

Constancy of inner zone proton belt

First half : ~12 Solar protons events

Second half of mission much more frequent occurrence of intense episodes

Define Epoch 1 and Epoch 2 for this mission based upon solar proton event frequency and electron episode frequency
6/7/00 – 9/30/02		10/1/02 – 3/6/04
160/00-269/02		270/02-65/04
160-1000			1001-1526

Relate to solar wind, interplanetary conditions

## Slide 14

| LEO electron Road Map |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Improvement Objective | AE-8  Capability | Capability Now - Incremental Progress Beyond AE-8 | Capability with Current Data Sets | Resources Needed to Meet Requirements |
| Time Resolution | 3 yr averages |   | 6 month averages |   |
| Energy Range | 40 keV - 7 MeV | there is a LEO model (APEXRAD) available to community, but output is presented as dose-depth data, not flux as needed for replacement model | 30 keV - 10 MeV | requires modeling instrument response and intercalibration of instruments ; important to handle spectral variations via covariance methods or other techniques TBD |
| Regional Coverage | uniform, L=1-12; B/Bo = 1 to max B/Bo |   | LEO - provided by POES, Sampex, TSX5,SAC-C, PROBA | sufficient coverage to proceed now |
| Directionality (Low Altitudes) | N/A - primarily a concern for inner zone protons |   |   |   |
| Solar Cycle Effects | min / max phase - doesn't capture HSSW activity during solar declining phase |   | yes - 6 month averages | extending temporal baseline to encompass multiple solar cycles |
| Storm Effects | none -washed out in averaging process |   | yes, with superposed epoch analysis studies - statistics on main phase and recovery phase fluxes, parameterized by activity indices | extending temporal baseline to improve statistics on large storms |
| Error Estimates | none |   | yes |   |
| Statistical Information | none |   | yes |   |

## Slide 15

## Slide 16

## MEO Mid Range Proton Road Map

| Improvement Objectives | AE-8/AP-8 Capability | Capability Now: CRRESPRO, TPM1 | Capability with Current Data | Resources Needed to Meet Requirements |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Time Resolution | 4-6 yr averages | Not standardized | Different energies at different regions; spotty energy and time coverage (NOAA, STRV, Polar, CRRES) | To fill in MEO/GTO will require orbiters or quality measurements on clients (DSX, ORBITALS, NASA missions)
To complete solar cycle variability we need long-term missions or overlapping missions.  Initial data gathering and distribution, followed by model development, is acceptable  |
| Energy Range | 0.1-400 MeV | 1 MeV – 80 MeV protons |  |  |
| Regional Coverage | L=1-12 | Nearly complete |  |  |
| Directionality (Low Altitude) | Yes | N/A |  |  |
| Solar Cycle Effects | Min/max phase | Missing; only 1-2 years of data | Same comments apply for Solar Cycle and Storm effects; error and stat information will require educated guesswork
  |  |
| Storm Effects | No | N/A |  | Autoregressive model or Monte Carlo approach |
| Error Estimates | Minimal | Minimal |  | Funding to characterize instruments with modern tools and “inter-calibrate” |
| Statistical Information | Minimal | Minimal |  | See above |

## Regional-to-Global Integration Road Map

| Improvement Objectives | AE-8/AP-8 Capability | Capability Now | Capability with Current Data | Resources Needed to Meet Requirements |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Time Resolution | 4-6 yr averages | Not standardized | AE-8/AP-8 with large uncertainties in MEO/GTO: sparse and/or noisy data | To fill in MEO/GTO and LEO will require orbiters or quality measurements on clients
To complete solar cycle variability we need long-term missions |
| Energy Range | 0.04-7 MeV | Not standardized |  |  |
| Regional Coverage | L=1-12 | TPM-1 links LEO to MEO, 
CRRESELE partially updates AE-8 |  |  |
| Directionality (Low Altitude) | Yes | On specialized LEO coordinates |  |  |
| Solar Cycle Effects | Min/max phase | Not standardized | Linkage of these capabilities will require some educated guesswork |  |
| Storm Effects | No | Minimal |  | Autoregressive model or Monte Carlo approach, or “Reanalysis” Climatology |
| Error Estimates | Minimal | Minimal |  | Funding to characterize instruments with modern tools and “inter-calibrate” |
| Statistical Information | Minimal | GEO/LEO not linked |  | See above |