# Presentation: 007167

## NDFD StatusWhat’s new and what’s coming

***David Ruth******Meteorological Development Laboratory***
*IFPS Methodology Workshop** II*

## NDFD general weather elements (per draft 10-506)

- Experimental Group 1 (December – March)
*Max/min temp*
*PoP12*
*Weather*
*Sky cover *
*Wind direction*
*Wind speed*

## NDFD general weather elements (per draft 10-506)

- Experimental Group 2 (April – June)
*Temperature*
*Dewpoint*
*Precipitation amount*
*Snow amount*

## NDFD general weather elements (per draft 10-506)

- Developmental
*Relative humidity*
*Apparent temperature*
*Floating PoP12*
*Wind  gust*

## NDFD fire weather elements (per draft 10-506) 

- Max/min relative humidity  (planned)
- 20 ft wind (developmental)
- Lightning Activity Level (planned)
- Mixing height (dropped from draft)
- Transport wind (dropped from draft)
- Haines index (dropped from draft)

## NDFD marine elements (per draft 10-506) 

- Wave height  (experimental group 1)
- Swell height (dropped from draft)
- Swell direction (dropped from draft)
- Visibility (planned)
- Ice coverage (dropped from draft)

## NDFD Consistency

- What’s new
*Adjacent versus coincident points*
*Points excluded for elevation differences >1000 ft*
*Points excluded that cross marine boundaries*
*WFO scores weighted by border length*
- What’s coming
*WFO-specific summary pages*
*Sortable reports using PHP *
*WFO scores*** ***grouped*** ***according to spatial and temporal variability*

## NDFD Timeliness

- What’s new
*Update page refreshed every 10 minutes*
- What’s coming
*WFO-specific summary pages*
*Sortable reports using PHP *
*Grid message receipts*

## NDFD Verification

- What’s new
*Point verification using NDFD gridpoint nearest observation*
- Max/min Temp, PoP12, Temp, Dewpoint, Wind Speed
*Gridded verification using RUC 20km analysis*
- Temperature
*Scores updated and posted monthly*
*Scores can be downloaded for local analysis*
- What’s coming
*Point verification for all NDFD elements*
*Gridded verification using ADAS*

## NDFD ORD verification

## NDFD ORD verification

## NDFD ORD verification

## NDFD temperature bias

## Opportunities for MDL

**Produce high-resolution statistical guidance on NDFD grid **
**Use ensembles to produce forecast uncertainty information**
**Exploit emerging high resolution climate databases**
**Monitor NDFD and new model guidance**
***develop statistical techniques that identify areas/times ripe for a “bust”***
***identify most relevant datasets for forecaster to view/download***
**Produce probabilistic short fuse warning/nowcast guidance**
**Provide statistical support for production of 3D aviation grids**
**Develop National Digital Guidance Database comparable to NDFD**
**Perform comparative verifications with NDFD that support NWS decision making**
**Revitalize storm surge**

## Proposed Course of Action

- Phase out software as an external MDL product line
- Establish MDL as world leader in the _P_robabilistic _R_eal-time _I_nterpretation of _M_odels and _F_orecasts
- Make MDL interpretative products available in database that provides interoperability with NDFD.

## PRIMF Digital Flow

- Current
- Observation

- Climatology

- PRIMF
- Server

- Numerical
- Output

- NDFD

- NDGD

- NWS Forecast Offices
-  and Centers

- NWS Customers
-  and Partners

## PRIMF Components

- High-resolution MOS and updates to MOS (i.e., LAMP)
- Statistical interpretation of NDFD highlighting forecast uncertainty
- Real-time forecast monitoring and feedback
- Probabilistic coastal hazards
- Verification of NDFD and NDGD

## Call to Action #1: High-resolution MOS

- Implement gridded MOS for elements in the NDFD
- Provide MOS ensemble guidance products

## Call to Action #2:NDGD Development

- Prototype methods to determine forecast uncertainty by comparing NDFD to:
*Model ensemble spread*
*Categorical MOS probabilities*
*Station/gridpoint climatology*
- Post MDL interpretative products experimentally

## Call to Action #3:Coastal Hazards

- Develop and bring probabilistic surge forecasts into operations
- Enhance surge/wave modeling, emphasizing coastal impact

## Call to Action #4NDFD Verification

- Provide verification results for all NDFD elements
- Conduct NDFD verification on a grid per emerging National Verification Plan.

## Call to Action #5SCAN

- Work with SEC and PPD to implement NOAA Matrix Technology Transfer Team for local forecasts and warnings

## Call to Action #6Cease and desist

- Phase out development of WFO product generation software
- Phase out support of MDL software implemented at WFOs
- Phase out generation of AFOS-Era Verification (AEV) Statistics

## MDL Vision

- 	Make NOAA’s NWS models and forecasts the world’s most useful.

## New MDL Mission

- 	Provide a full spectrum of interpretive guidance products in support of NOAA’s NWS.