# Presentation: 239034

## DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY

***DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY***

- CDR Stephanie Hamilton
- Dr. John Hannan

**Defense Threat Reduction Agency****Technology Development Directorate****Operational Applications Division**

## DTRA makes the world safer by reducing the threat from weapons of mass destruction

- A combat support agency that is part of the Department of Defense:
- We use a comprehensive set of tools to accomplish our mission
- Arms Control – Fulfilling treaty obligations and countering proliferation
- Threat Reduction – Dismantling the former Soviet nuclear arsenal in place and eliminating Iraqi weapons of mass destruction
- Technology Development – Developing, testing and fielding offensive and defensive technologies
- Chemical and Biological Defense – Assuring operations in hostile environments
- Combat Support – Assessing vulnerabilities, assuring the nuclear deterrent
- DoD's "go-to" agency on WMD threats

**Notes:**
Here is a quick overview of our agency and our capabilities.  This will all be explained in detail, but if I only have 30 seconds, I have at least given you some useful information about us and our agency.

## Develop/Integrate hazard and consequence assessment tools
Provide up-to-date weather, terrain, population and sensor data/predictions
Develop high-fidelity models of urban environments, target and structure response
Provide consequence of execution assessment  
Primary products include Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) and  Consequence Assessment Toolset (CATS)

- Develop/Integrate hazard and consequence assessment tools
- Provide up-to-date weather, terrain, population and sensor data/predictions
- Develop high-fidelity models of urban environments, target and structure response
- Provide consequence of execution assessment
- Primary products include Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) and  Consequence Assessment Toolset (CATS)

**Notes:**
Two scenarios are modeled using the latest version of HPAC 4.0.3:

 A hypothetical release of Sarin using Chemical Facility source term module.  A Chemical storage tank – 3300 kg released in air and 700 kg spilled (pool)
 A hypothetical release of Anthrax using Biological Weapon source term module.  A single bomblet – 0.78 kg

Outputs include Contour hazard area information, and the Casualty Tables show the human effects roll up.

Icons on left are click and drag.  They represent ability to model:
CB weapons
 CB Storage and Production Facilities
 Nuclear weapons
 Radiological Weapons
 Missile Intercepts for CB payloads
 Nuclear Facilities 
 Analytical mode – analyst generates the source term

Figure on bottom right is comparing Dipole Pride 26 data (histograms) to HPAC predictions (colored contours).  Dipole Pride 26 was a 1996 DTRA experiment at Yucca Flats.  SF6 was the tracer gas.

## Provide WME consequence prediction & analysis tools to Combatant Commanders
Provide on-site and reachback support, convey critical info to decision-makers
Assist warfighter in assessing the effectiveness of operational theater plans and formulate alternatives

***Operational Support Technology***

- Provide WME consequence prediction & analysis tools to Combatant Commanders
- Provide on-site and reachback support, convey critical info to decision-makers
- Assist warfighter in assessing the effectiveness of operational theater plans and formulate alternatives

**Notes:**
1.  All bullet text must be Ariel 16.

2.  The Approach should define what the focus is for FY03/04.

3.  Deliverables should focus on near-term deliveries/milestones.  The farthest out something should be is FY04.  Give scheduled month/year for each item.

## WMD Analysis Support to Combatant Commandersand other USG Activities

**TECHNICAL REACHBACK SUPPORT**

- Recent support:
- DETERMINED PROMISE (NORTHCOM)
- UNIFIED DEFENSE 04
- UFL (PACOM/USFK)
- State Dept Support
- G8 Summit
- NSSEs

**On shift technical experts – 24/7 support.**
**Missions: Consequence Management, Collateral Effect and WMD Targeting support Expert operators for DTRA tool**
**Single operational point of entry for DTRA (TD) expertise**
**Tools: HPAC, J-CATS, IMEA, ITPTS, **
**Provides PM/developer expertise for enhanced reachback support and modeling **
**Can leverage additional DTRA expertise when required  **

**Notes:**
ITF program plan to address management, technical framework and content.  Management of the effort will include use of the existing PIWG, an ITF framework team and a capability team. 
The ITPTS standards will be used as the initial set of ITF standards and specs that will be adjusted to meet overall ITF requirements. 
Detailed milestones will be developed and provided by May 03  

## Meteorology Program

- Provide tailored meteorological products to DTRA customers for T&D analyses and predictions
- Warfighter and emergency responders
- Planning and emergency response scenarios, forensic analyses
- Suitable meteorological products for use with DTRA’s NBCR hazard prediction suite of tools
- Fund applied meteorological research to improve DTRA weather related products
- Probabilistic weather
- Improvements to NWP models

## Research and Development Needs

- Improved methods for validation of mesoscale model performance at high resolutions (<2km)
- Alternative methods for the calculation of meteorological uncertainty
- Improved parameterization schemes for high resolution NWP simulations
- Use of urban measurement in T&D calculations
- High altitude meteorology for missile intercept scenarios

## MET Program Partnerships

- NOAA
- NCEP, NWS, NOS, ARL
- Army
- ARL, Dugway
- Air Force
- AFWA, AFCCC
- Navy
- NAVO, FNMOC
- National Center for Atmospheric Research
- Pennsylvania State University
- Technical Panel #9 – Cooperative Research
- NATO