# Presentation: 093188

## A Roadmap for Improving Aviation Weather in the 21st CenturyNational Business Aviation Association, Inc.Orlando, FloridaOctober 7, 2003

- Sponsored by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM)
- Facilitator
- Mary M. Cairns

## Overview

- Background
- National Aviation Weather Program
-            Mid-Course Assessment - The Report
- Panel Presentations
- Discussion
- Summary

## Weather Impacts on the NAS 

- Safety
- Weather is a major contributing factor to aviation accidents
- about 25% of all aviation accidents
- about 33% of all fatal commercial carrier accidents
- about 25% of all fatal general aviation accidents
- Efficiency
- Good weather *facilitates* the NAS
- Marginal weather *debilitates* the NAS
- Poor weather *strangulates* the NAS

## OFCM Mission

- To ensure the effective use of federal
- meteorological resources by leading the
- systematic coordination of operational
- weather requirements, services, and
- supporting research among the federal
- agencies

## Coordinating Infrastructure

**Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR)**

**Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR)**

_**Federal Coordinator for Meteorology**_

**Program Councils**

**National Space Weather Program**

**National Aviation Weather Program**

**Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs**

**Operational Processing Centers**

**Environmental Information Systems and Communications**

**Integrated Observing Systems**

**Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services**

**Cooperative Research**

**Working Group for Environmental Support to Homeland Security**

## Historical Background

- 1995 National Research Council Report Aviation Weather Services - *A Call for Federal Leadership and Action*
- FAA identified as lead agency
- 1997 *Report of the White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security* called for **an 80% reduction in the rate of fatal aviation accidents by the year 2007**
- Reiterated in FAA Flight Plan 2004-2008

## OFCM’s Actions

- 1997 *National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan*
- 1999 *National Aviation Weather Initiatives (and subsequent updates)*
- 2000* Aviation Weather User Forum*
- Product development
- Product dissemination
- Cockpit displays
- Training
- Decision support systems/capabilities
- 2001* National Aviation Weather Initiatives Final Baseline Tier 3/4 Report (and subsequent updates, e.g., 2003)*
- 2002 *Aviation Weather Training Report*
- 2003 *National Aviation Weather Program Mid-Course Assessment*

## National Aviation Weather ProgramMid-Course Assessment – The Report

- Accident Reduction Trends
-  Confirm Value of Coordinated R&D Programs

## Report Findings

- Sustaining risk reduction success in general aviation
- Reducing accident trends for smaller commercial carriers
- Reducing risk from turbulence and convection hazards
- Reducing risk from high density altitude
- Risk reduction for other weather factors
- Sustaining R&D to continue improving aviation safety

## Panel Focus

- Where have we been, Where are we now, and Where are we going?
- What products have made a significant difference in the reduction of weather-related accidents to date?
- What current and future products and programs could make a significant improvement in safety toward the 2007 goal and beyond?

## Panel

- Moderator: Ms. Mary M. Cairns, OFCM, Senior Staff
- Panelists:
- Mr. David Whatley, FAA, Director, Aerospace Weather Policy and Standards Staff
- Mr. Tom Fahey, Northwest Airlines, Manager, Meteorology
- Mr. Mark Andrews, NWS, Chief, Aviation Service Branch
- Col. Neil Wyse, USAF, Deputy for Federal Programs, Directorate of Weather

## Current Icing Potential (CIP)

**Current Icing Potential (CIP)**

- Agencies:  FAA, NWS
- Description:  Improved icing product
- User Need:
- National Aviation Weather Initiatives
- GA Weather JSIT
- FAA In-flight Aircraft Icing Plan
- Benefits:  Reduced accidents/fatalities
- Lessons Learned:  Need for user involvement

**Future**

- Agencies:  *FAA, NWS in AWTT process*
- Expected Benefit:  I*mprovement of usefulness of the product *
- Expected Challenges:  *Obtaining enough PIREPs for verification, especially SLD *

## Northwest Airlines (NWA) Turbulence Plot (TP) System

- What: An air carrier, integrated process addressing wx obstacles during preflight planning & en route operations
- How: Data ingest and production, distribution, display & application of tailored weather information
- Who:	Dispatchers		Meteorologists  			Flight Attendants	Pilots
- Why/User Need: Developed to address FAA’s Federal Air Regulations & internal NWA business model
- Benefits: Reduced en route wx hazard encounters affecting 		Flight Attendants	Passengers	Aircraft
- Training: Initial & recurrent training for all active participants
- Challenges: Quantifying value of safety & efficiency

## Existing NWA Program: CDM (Collaborative Decision Making)

- What: NAS Users & Mgr’s effort to improve NAS efficiency
- How: NAS data shared between Gov’t & Industry via common displays to facilitate agreement on NAS management
- Who: Gov’t & Industry NAS users & Mgr’s and Research Community
- Why/User Need: Increase predictability & Capacity of the NAS
- Benefits/Goal: Reduced air traffic delays, diversions & cancellations

## New NWA Effort: CDM – Wx Applications

- Concept: Integrate Wx Info Management & Air Traffic Management processes to
- Provide Improved Aviation Weather Information
- Enhance Ability of Decision Makers to Use the Information
- Challenges to Implement: Resources

## NOAA’s Aviation Weather ProgramPartnering towards improved aviation servicesPast and current achievements

***  ***
**Improved processes**
*Aviation Weather Technology Transfer process*
*Canadian participation in Collaborative Convective Forecast Product*
*Multi-governmental agency and international participation in development of new aviation training courses*
*Better integration of FAA/NASA research into NOAA operational products*
**Improved aviation forecast tools**
*Aviation forecast preparation system released July 2003*
*Increased use of time proven forecast techniques*
**Improved verification systems***** ***

## NOAA’s Aviation Weather ProgramPartnering towards improved aviation servicesFuture work

**Complete development and use of “Cradle to Grave” aviation product process**
*Multi-agency Joint Planning Office effort*
*Better advance warning of new and improved forecast products to dissemination system builders*
*Incorporate end-user feedback directly into the design of new products from the very start (example: Graphical Area Forecast)*
**Enhanced DoD and NOAA partnerships**
*Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts*
*4-dimensional aviation database*
**Increased level of automation**
*Take advantage of FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program results to provide gridded aviation parameter forecasts*
**Increased emphasis on graphical products**

## DOD – Past and Present

- Who: USN
- Program: NWP - NOGAPS
- What: Robust atmospheric data assimilation and forecast model
- Increased resolution; better representation of jet stream level winds
- Upgraded data assimilation system
- User need: Improved support for aviation forecasts
- Benefit: Overall improvement in global modeling for aviation forecasts.
- Training: Operational training courses

- Who: USAF
- Program: Cloud Depiction and Forecast System (CDFS) II
- What: Fine-scale 3-D depiction of cloud height, amt, and type derived from geostationary and polar orbiting weather satellite sensor data. Produces forecasts to 12h.
- User need: Improved cloud cover information, on a global scale.
- Benefit: More accurate cloud depiction and forecasts for mission completion.  Also benefits other agencies (e.g., USN).
- Training: Operational training courses

## DoD – Future

**Who:**** DoD, NOAA, NASA Multi-agency Partnerships**
**What:**** Environmental Satellite Program**
**GOES-R (NASA/NOAA)**
**NPP [NPOESS PREP PROGRAM] (NASA)**
**NPOESS (DoD/NOAA/NASA)**
**-- RESEARCH AND CLIMO PATHFINDERS****	**
**	****-- EOS --- Terra and Aqua (NASA)**
**Benefits:**** Improved observations for atmospheric soundings, data assimilation, volcanic ash (aerosols)**
**Increased resolution—Improved model initiation**
**Improved timeliness**
**Who:**** DoD/Air Force**
**What: ****BENVINT (Battlespace ENVironmental INTellegence)**
**Test Program for UAV Weather Sensor **
**Benefits: ****Weather obs from Data Denied and Data Sparse Regions**
**Front line data/obs/reduced risk**
**Inproved weather intel to decision makers**
**Application to large data void areas—Oceans/Ranges **
**	**

## Open Discussion

## Summary

- NAWP Assessment Report should help guide development and plans to continue to improve safety and efficiency in the NAS
- FAA should continue to lead the effort towards the Strategic Plan goal in 2007 and beyond
- Aviation community should continue to work closely together
- Much work still needs to be done...FAA, other federal agencies, industry, university, and private organizations work on identifying and specifying the gaps

## Further Information

- Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
- 8455 Colesville Road, Suite 1500
- Silver Spring, Maryland 20910
- (301) 427-2002
- Website:  www.ofcm.gov