# Presentation: 873144

## Stabilization Wedges and the Managementof Global Carbon for the Next 50 Years:A Primer for the Physicist as Researcher and TeacherRobert SocolowPrinceton Universitysocolow@princeton.eduFermi National Accelerator LaboratoryApril 18, 2007

## Good Advice Long Ago Received

**Never underestimate a person’s intelligence,**
**nor overestimate what they know.**

## Outline of Talk

- The Earth system
- The energy system
- The wedge model
- The rush to coal
- Efficiency
- Solution science and prospicience

## THE EARTH SYSTEMAll of this belongs in physics courses

## Earth’s Energy Balance

**Model 1: ******** /4 = ******** T****4**.    = 1368 W/m2  T= 279K
**Model 2: (1-a) ******** /4 = ******** T****4**.       a = 0.31  T= 254K.
- (Adding an albedo is better science but gives a worse result.)
- Actual Te = 288K.   Missing: An atmosphere with a greenhouse effect (responsible for 34K of warming).

- Rubin,  p. 476

## The atmosphere as a bathtub, with current inputs and outputs of carbon

## Past, present, and potential future levels of carbon in the atmosphere

- Rosetta Stone: 2.1 billon metric tons of carbon added to the atmosphere as CO2 raises its CO2 concentration by one part per million,.

## Atmospheric CO2 Concentration with and without 1980-99 sinks 

- Atmospheric CO2 Concentration with and without 1980-99 sinks

- “Sinks”

- Good enough model: Half stays in.
- Fact about our Atmosphere: 2.1 GtC = 1 ppm

## Growth Rate of Carbon Reservoirs

**Notes:**
This plot shows global fossil fuel emissions together with the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 as measured at Mauna Loa. Since 1958, the yearly accumulation rate of atmospheric CO2 has grown, on average, from about 1 Pg C y-1 to about 3.0 Pg C y-1 (light blue area). Over the same period, fossil fuel emissions (red line) have grown from about 2.5 Pg C y-1 to about 6.5 Pg C y-1 .  Net uptake by the ocean or terrestrial biosphere (green region) must account for the difference. Note the large interannual variation in the annual atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate.  Higher growth rates generally appear to be associated with El Niño episodes (arrows), which are generally warmer overall.  The exception to this is the period following the 1990s eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, which caused cooling.

Taken from Sarmiento, J.L., and N. Gruber, Sinks for anthropogenic carbon, in Physics Today, pp. 30-36, 2002.

Data sources:
Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf. 2000. Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. 
Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2000. Global, Regional, and National CO2 Emissions. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.

## 2. ENERGY

## Ratio: Solar Input/ Human Use 

**Solar Input**:  **120x10****15**** W**
- 	[0.69 x 1368 W/m2] x [ x (6370 km)2]
**Human Use**:   **13x10****12**** W  ****	**(2 kW/capita)
**	****	****	**400 EJ/year
**Ratio = 10,000.  ****How could we possibly get into trouble? *****Answer*****: via carbon dioxide. **

## Conventional oil: a negligible fraction 

- Conventional oil: a negligible fraction
- of fossil fuel

- Source for “all fossil fuel”: Bryan Mignone

**IS92a scenario**

- GtC/yr

**Today**

**x**

**x**

**x**

**x**

**x**

**x**

**x**

**x**

**x**

**Hubbert oil curve: **
**3 GtC/yr** ** peak today, **
**230 GtC (2000x10****9****bbl) total**

**OIL**

**ALL FOSSIL**
**FUEL**

**Hubbert (logistic) curve for all fossil fuel: 5600 GtC total, fit to IS92a **

**x**

**Notes:**
This is from ongoing work at Princeton to estimate a simple baseline scenario for combustion of all the resource base of fossil fuels.

## Global Fossil Carbon Resources

|  | Resource Base, GtC | Additional,GtC |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Conventional oil (85 wt. % C) | 250 |  |
| Unconventional oil | 440 | 1550 |
| Conventional nat. gas (75% C) | 240 |  |
| Unconventional nat. gas | 250 | 220 |
| Clathrates |  | 10600 |
| Coal (70% C)                                | 3400 | 2900 |
|                               Total | 4600 | 15300 |

**Source Rogner, *****Ann. Rev. Energy and Env*****. *****22*****, p. 249. Also used: 1 toe = 41.9 GJ; 20.3 kg(C)/GJ(oil); 13.5 kg(C)/GJ (gas); 24.1 kg(C)/GJ(coal).**

**2.1 GtC = 1 ppm. Today’s consumption rate: 7 GtC/yr. **
**OIL DEPLETION WON’T SAVE US FROM THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT.**

## 3. THE WEDGE MODEL

## Past Emissions

**2055**

**2005**

**14**

**7**

**1955**

**0**

**2.0 ******

**2105**

**Historical**
** ****emissions**

**Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year**

## The Stabilization Triangle

**2055**

**2005**

**14**

**7**

**Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year**

**1955**

**0**

**Stabilization Triangle**

**Currently projected path**

**Flat**** ****path**

**Historical**
** ****emissions**

**2.0******

**2105**

- Easier CO2 target

- ~850 ppm

- Tougher CO2 target

- ~500 ppm

**O**

- Interim Goal

## Wedges

**2055**

**2005**

**14**

**7**

**Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year**

**1955**

**0**

**Currently projected path**

**Flat**** ****path**

**Historical**
** ****emissions**

**2.0 ******

**2105**

**14 GtC/y**

**7 GtC/y**

- Seven “wedges”

**O**

## What is a “Wedge”?

- A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere.

## CO2 Emissions by Sector and Fuel

**Allocation of 6.2 GtC/yr 2000 global CO****2**** emissions**

- CO2 Emissions by Sector and Fuel

## 15 Ways to Make a Wedge

*Source*; Socolow and Pacala, *Scientific American*, September 2006, p.54

- Industrial energy efficiency
- “Upstream” investment
- Other renewables
- Methane mitigation
- Population
- Capture of CO2 from air (?)

## CO2 emissions, OECD and non-OECD, 1860-2003

- CO2 emissions, OECD and non-OECD, 1860-2003

**Notes:**
2003 TOTAL World CO2 by summing OECD+NOECD is 6.9GTonC
2003 TOTAL World actually is 7.3GTonC

## CO2 emissions, OECD and non-OECD, 1970-2003

- CO2 emissions, OECD and non-OECD, 1970-2003

**Notes:**
2003 TOTAL World CO2 by summing OECD+NOECD is 6.9GTonC
2003 TOTAL World actually is 7.3GTonC

## OECD and non-OECD shares

*Source*I Socolow and Pacala, *Scientific American*, September 2006, p.56

## U.S. Wedges

*Source*: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, *in* Socolow and Pacala,
*Scientific American*, September 2006, p. 57

## 4. THE RUSH TO COAL

## Emission Commitments from Capital Investments

*Policy priority*: Deter investments in new long-lived high-carbon stock:
- not only new power plants, but also new buildings.
***Needed*****: “Commitment accounting.”**

- Credit for comparison: David Hawkins, NRDC

## Electricity

**Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:**
- 700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power.

***Nuclear***

*Site*: Surry station, James River, VA; 1625 MW since 1972-73.
*Credit*: Dominion.

**A revised goal: retrievable storage **
**Natural-U plants (no enrichment), no reprocessing**
**Universal rules and international governance**

- Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge.

## Wind Electricity

**Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:**
- One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power.
- Today: 50,000 MW (1/40)

*Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany* * *
*(Danish Wind Industry Association)*

## The Future Fossil Fuel Power Plant

*Shown here*: After 10 years of operation of a 1000 MW coal plant, 60 Mt (90 Mm3) of CO2 have been injected, filling a horizontal area of 40 km2 in each of two formations.
*Assumptions:*
- 10% porosity
**1/3 of pore space accessed**
- 60 m total vertical height for the two formations.
*Note:* Plant is still young.

## Natural CO2 fields in southwest U.S.

**Natural CO****2**** fields in southwest U.S.**

- McElmo Dome, Colorado: 0.4Gt(C) in place
- 800 km pipeline from McElmo Dome to Permian Basin, west Texas, built in the 1980s

- Two conclusions:
- CO2  in the right place is valuable.
- CO2 from McElmo was a better bet than CO2 from any nearby site of fossil fuel burning.

## Carbon Storage

**Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:**
- 3500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr
- 100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR
- A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today

*Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA*

*Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins*

- Sleipner project, offshore Norway

## IGCC plants are nearly coal CCS plants

**BP will use petcoke and add, at its Carson refinery, California, USA: **
**CO****2**** capture [CO + H****2****O ******** CO****2**** + H****2****, CO****2**** - H****2**** separation, CO****2**** absorption ]; **
**H****2**** to turbine for power;  3) CO****2**** pressurization and export off site for EOR.**

## $100/tC

| Form of Energy | Equivalent to $100/tC |
| --- | --- |
| Natural gas | $1.50/1000 scf |
| Crude oil | $12/barrel |
| Coal | $65/U.S. ton |
| Gasoline | 25¢/gallon (ethanol subsidy: 50¢/gallon)  |
| Electricity from coal | 2.2¢/kWh (wind and nuclear subsidies: 1.8 ¢/kWh) |
| Electricity from natural gas | 1.0¢/kWh |
| Today’s global energy system | $700 billion/year (2% of GWP) |

- Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $100/tC can enable scale-up of most of the wedges. (PV is an exception.)

- $100/tC was the approximate EU trading price for a year ending April 2006, when it fell sharply.

**Notes:**
Gasoline: 		1 m3 = 264.2 U.S. gals;  630 kgC/m3 gasoline.

Crude oil: 		1 bbl = 42 U.S. gals;  730 kgC/m3 crude oil

Coal:	 		1 U.S. ton = 907 kg;  0.71 kgC/kg coal 

Natural gas: 	1 Nm3 = 37.24 scf;  0.549 kgC/ Nm3 natural gas 

Electricity from coal: 		29.3 GJ/metric ton coal (12,600 Btu/pound);  40% conversion efficiency

Electricity from natural gas: 	55.6 GJ/metric ton natural gas;  0.75 kgC/kg natural gas;  50% conversion efficiency

Today’s global energy system: 7 GtC/y 

NOT IN TABLE:
Hydrogen from coal:		18¢/kgH2, 	assuming	5.0 tC/tH2
Hydrogen from natural gas	  9¢/kgH2, 	assuming	2.5 tC/tH2

## Coal-based Synfuels only with CCS*

****Carbon capture and storage***

**Why “synfuels only with CCS”? Twice as much CO****2**** is emitted per kilometer when driving the same car with a coal-based synfuel as with a petroleum fuel.**
**The “second CO****2****” can be captured at the synfuels plant and stored below ground, making synfuels no less bad for climate than petroleum fuels.**

**Effort needed for 1 Mb/d: **
- 120 Mt/yr coal to synfuels, capture and store 40 MtC/yr (150 MtCO2/yr).
- World coal consumption, 2002: 4.8 Gt/yr
- Sasol South Africa output: 165,000 b/d.

**Effort needed for 1 wedge:**
- Capture and store the CO2 byproduct at plants processing 3 billion tons of coal per year and producing 24 million barrels per day of coal-based synfuels
- 	24 Mb(oil)/d ≈ 1 GtC/yr

**Notes:**
Assumptions leading to 120 Mt coal/yr yields 1 mbd.

 2tC in coal yields 1 tC in synfuels (a guess)
 Carbon content of coal, 0.7 tC/t. So 2.8 t coal yields 1 tC in synfuels.
 23.56 mbd synfuels is a flow of 1 tGC/yr (assumes synfuels are like crude oil)
 So 2.8 Gt coal/year yields 23.56 mbd, or 120 Mt coal/yr yields 1 mbd.

## U.S. Power Plants by Fuel Type

**U.S. Power Plants by Fuel Type**

- Source: Donald McCloskey, Public Service Enterprise Group

## U.S. Power Plant Capacity, by Vintage

- Source: EIA

**Issues: Retirement, relicensing, grandfathering**

## 5. EFFICIENCY

## Efficient Use of Electricity

- lighting

- motors

- cogeneration

**Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:**
- .
- 25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial and residential buildings

**Target commercial and multifamily buildings.**

**Notes:**
We should aim for two wedges here, a 50% reduction in electricity. 

Assumptions behind “25%”:

Total emissions are 14 GtC/yr.
40% of carbon emissions are for power.
70% of power emissions are for buildings.
Therefore. 4 GtC/yr is emissions for power to buildings.

## At the power plant, CO2 heads for the sky, 70% of the electrons head for buildings!

- Source: U.S. EPA

## Efficient Use of Fuel

**Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:**
*     **Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of carbon.*
- 2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.
- 2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year.

**Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl**
**Video-conferencing **

## Five ways to cut 1 tonC/yr in half

|  | 1 ton carbon/yr | Cut in half | How? |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| a) Drive | 10,000 mi,
30 mpg | 60 mpg | Lighter, less power(?) |
| b) Drive | 10,000 mi, 30 mpg | 5,000 miles | Live closer to work |
| c) Fly | 10,000 miles | 5,000 miles | Video-conference |
| d) Heat home | Nat. gas, av. house, av. climate | Insulate, double-pane windows, fewer leaks, condensing furnace,  |  |
| e) Lights | 300 kWh/month if all power is from coal
(600 kWh/month, NJ) | If all-coal power, permanently replace twenty 60W incandescent bulbs, lit 6 hrs/day, with CFLs. |  |

## Efficient Use of Fuel

**Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:**
*     **Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of carbon.*
- 2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.
- 2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year.

**Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl**
**Video-conferencing **

## Five ways to cut 1 tonC/yr in half

|  | 1 ton carbon/yr | Cut in half | How? |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| a) Drive | 10,000 mi,
30 mpg | 60 mpg | Lighter, less power(?) |
| b) Drive | 10,000 mi, 30 mpg | 5,000 miles | Live closer to work |
| c) Fly | 10,000 miles | 5,000 miles | Video-conference |
| d) Heat home | Nat. gas, av. house, av. climate | Insulate, double-pane windows, fewer leaks, condensing furnace,  |  |
| e) Lights | 300 kWh/month if all power is from coal
(600 kWh/month, NJ) | If all-coal power, permanently replace twenty 60W incandescent bulbs, lit 6 hrs/day, with CFLs. |  |

## 6. SOLUTION SCIENCE AND PROSPICIENCE

## Undo global warming 

- Undo global warming
- by diverting sunlight

- Lagrange exterior point, L1:
- 1.5x10^6 km from Earth
- Moon is 3.84x10^5 km from Earth
- Diameter: 2000 km
- Thickness: 10 μm
- Mass: 10^11 kg.
- source: Hoffert, 2002

## Anticipate adverse environmental and social impacts of “solutions.”

- Every wedge strategy can be implemented well or poorly.
- Although every wedge has co-benefits that generate alliances and improve the prospects of implementation, every wedge also has a dark side, generating opposition that thwarts implementation.
- “Solution science” is emerging: the study of the environmental and social costs and benefits of stabilization strategies.

## Prospicience

*Prospicience*: “The art [and science] of looking ahead.” We need a new word to describe a new intellectual domain.
- In the past 50 years we have become aware of our deep history: the history of our Universe, our Earth, and life.
- Can we achieve a comparable quantitative understanding of human civilization at various future times: 50 years ahead *vs.* 500 *vs. *5000 *vs. *longer?
- We have scarcely begun to ask: What are we on this planet to do? What are our goals? What are our responsibilities?
- Imagine spending as much effort on our collective destiny on Earth as we spend on our personal destiny in the afterlife!