# Presentation: 893268

## Short and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets

**Energy Information Administration**

**Global Policy Group**
**November 28, 2006**
**Washington, DC**

***Short and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets***

## West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price(dollars per barrel)

** **

**   **

_** **_

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006*

- History

- Projections

## World Oil Surplus Production Capacity(million barrels per day)

**World Oil Surplus Production Capacity****(million barrels per day)**

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006*

## World Oil Consumption Growth(million barrels per day)

**Oil Demand **
**Growth**

**World Oil Demand**

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006*

## Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks

**Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range**

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006*

## U.S. Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot Prices(dollars per thousand cubic feet)

**U.S. Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot Prices****(dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006*

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2005 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2030

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**100**

**131**

- History

- Projections

**AEO2007 P**

**AEO2006**

**135**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of

**U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of**
**Real Gross Domestic  Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030

**U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

- History

- Projections

**Liquid Fuels**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,

**U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,**
**2005 and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption by Sector,

**2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (millions of barrels per day)**

**2010**

**2020**

**20.7**

**22.2**

**21.6**

**24.8**

**27.6**

**Transportation**

**Residential and**
**Commercial**

**Industrial**

**Electric Power**

**2030**

**24.0**

**26.9**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Liquid Products Consumption, 1990-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Other**

**Total**

**Distillate**

**Residual**

**Motor Gasoline**

**Jet Fuel**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption by Mode, 1980-2030

**(quadrillion Btu)**

- Projections

- History

**Light-Duty Vehicles**

**Rail**

**Heavy-Duty Vehicles**

**Water**

**Air**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 2005 and 2030

**(miles per gallon)**

- Note: Does not include impact of proposed increase in fuel economy standards based on vehicle footprint for light trucks.

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid, Diesel, and Flex Fuel Vehicles,

**U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid, Diesel, and Flex Fuel Vehicles,**
**2005 and 2030 (thousand units)**

- *Only includes hybrids that provide tractive power to the vehicle.

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## Sales of U.S. Non-Conventional Light-Duty Vehicles,

**Sales of U.S. Non-Conventional Light-Duty Vehicles,**
**2015 and 2030 (thousand vehicles sold)**

**Hybrids**

**Alcohol**

**Turbo Direct Injection Diesel**

**Gaseous**

**Electric**

**Fuel Cell**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Ethanol Production, 1981-2030

**(billion gallons)**

- Projections

- History

**AEO2007 P**

**AEO2006**

**Corn Ethanol**

**Cellulosic Ethanol**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Crude Oil  Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Lower 48 Onshore**

**Alaska**

**Deepwater Offshore**

- Projections

- History

**Total**

**Shallow Water Offshore**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,**
**1960-2030 (million barrels per day)**

**Consumption**

**Domestic Supply**

**Net Imports**** **

**60%**

**61%**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector,

**2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**2010**

**2020**

**22.0**

**23.4**

**26.9**

**Transportation**

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Industrial**

**Electric Power**

**2030**

**26.9**

**5.8**

**7.7**

**3.1**

**4.8**

**5.5**

**8.9**

**3.1**

**5.2**

**7.5**

**6.4**

**9.5**

**10.0**

**3.6**

**4.0**

**5.5**

**5.6**

**24.0**

**6.4**

**8.7**

**3.2**

**5.0**

**26.3**

**7.2**

**9.2**

**3.8**

**5.3**

**26.1**

**5.9**

**9.8**

**4.2**

**5.3**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**16%**

**21%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(trillion cubic feet)**

**Alaska**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore**

**Lower 48 Associated-Dissolved**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply,

**2006-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**Growth in Alaskan Production**

**Growth in**
**Non-Associated**
**Unconventional**

**Growth in LNG Imports**

**Base Production (all sources)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

**Overseas LNG**

**Mexico**

**Canada**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030

**U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030**
**(2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector,

**2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (million short tons)**

**2010**

**2020**

**1,128**

**1,233**

**1,195**

**1,390**

**1,377**

**Coal to Liquids**

**Other**

**Electric Power**

**2030**

**1,772**

**1,784**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2030

**(2005 dollars per short ton)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Electricity Sales by Sector,

**2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)**

**2010**

**2020**

**3,660**

**3,978**

**3,953**

**4,629**

**4,528**

**Transportation**

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Industrial**

**2030**

**5,168**

**5,341**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2030

**(billion kilowatthours)**

**Petroleum**

**Renewables**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, including

**U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, including**
**Combined Heat and Power, 2006-2030 (gigawatts)**

**New Renewable**

**New Natural Gas**

**New Coal**

**Existing Combined-Cycle**

**Needed**
**Capacity**

**Existing Coal Steam**

**Existing Other Fossil Steam**

**Existing Combustion Turbine**

**Existing Nuclear**

**Existing Pumped Storage**

**Existing Renewable**

**New Nuclear**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Nonhydroelectric Renewable Electricity Generation,

**2010**

**2020**

**92**

**174**

**165**

**212**

**185**

**2030**

**211**

**256**

**U.S. Nonhydroelectric Renewable Electricity Generation,**
**2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)**

**Geothermal**

**Solar**

**Biomass**

**MSW and**
**Landfill Gas**

**Wind**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Electricity Price, 1970-2030

**(2005 cents per kilowatthour)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030

**U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030**
**(million metric tons)**

**6,214 in 2010**

**6,365 in 2010**

**6,944 in 2020**

**7,119 in 2020**

**Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2030**
**(metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)**

**488 in 2010**

**486 in 2010**

**406 in 2020**

**407 in 2020**

**8,114 in 2030**

**351 in 2030**

- History

- Projections

**7,950 in 2030**

**353 in 2030**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## Annual Energy Outlook 2007 reference case indicates that through 2030....

**U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent**
**The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to improve at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent**
**U.S. oil import dependency is projected to grow from 60 percent to 61 percent**
**U.S. natural gas use is projected to peak around 2020**
**Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports**
**Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent**

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2007*****, reference case December 5****th****, report February 2006**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2006*****, June 2006**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**