# Presentation: 530026

## A Low-Carbon Vision of U.S. Electric Transmission

- Jeffery Greenblatt
- NREL Meeting
- January 4, 2007

## Why a Vision Is Needed

- 2001: Vice President Cheney’s task force identified transmission infrastructure as the #2 goal (energy efficiency was #1), yet nothing has been done in six years!
- Electricity demand is growing rapidly (1.4%/yr), and by 4%/yr in Southwest
- > More than 50 TWh/yr new capacity (7 GW baseload) needed annually in U.S.

- Sources: NEPDG (National Energy Policy Development Group), 2001. *National Energy Policy: Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America’s Future*, Washington, DC. ISBN 0-16-050814-2; EIA Annual Energy Outlook, 2006.

## Enable a Low-Carbon Future

- U.S. electricity sector needs massive decarbonization: Emissions of 2600 MtCO2/yr in 2005, with enormous growth of coal projected
- Key ingredients: remote renewable electricity (e.g. wind) and decarbonized coal from Heartland
- Demand growth primarily on coasts (Pacific, Southwest, Southeast)
- “Build it and they will come”: Enabling remote low-carbon energy requires transmission infrastructure in place

## Electricity Demand Map

- Electricity demand 3900 TWh/yr in 2006
- Growth of 1.4%/yr through 2030 (5500 TWh/yr)
- Estimate 7300 TWh/yr in 2050
- Greatest growth in SE, SW, Pacific

## Wind and Coal Resource Map

- Source: Mike Dvorak, Stanford University

## Goals

- Develop “interstate highway” proposal that will result in one-time siting process, streamlining future construction/upgrading
- Sufficient capacity for near-term and long-term demand: 40+% of U.S. generation by 2050 (3000 TWh/yr or 375 GW baseload)
- Technology neutral, low-carbon mandate: GHG standard to prevent conventional coal without CCS, encourage high renewable content (50+%?)

## Anticipated Synergies

- Enable development of rural economy
- Stimulate development of CCS technology that can be exported rapidly in rest of world
- Encourage further renewable technology development; would not just benefit wind
- Provide markets for coal/biomass polygeneration plants to sell electricity
- Use transmission rights-of-way for fuel pipeline and coal railway networks

## Role of Wind/CAES

- CAES can transform wind from a ~30% to >90% capacity factor resource
- Large, remote wind will need storage to minimize transmission costs and maximize wind’s contribution
- Trunk lines will primarily serve baseload markets and will be easier to manage

## Energy Policy Act of 2005

- Study to designate corridors on federal lands for the transmission of electricity and fuel pipelines stipulated in EPAct2005
- Report due August 2007
- Unclear of time horizon of study and priority given to low-carbon/renewable energy
- Opportunity to influence study (or at least use as baseline for our study)

## Proposed steps

- Generate alternative scenario(s) of U.S. energy growth
- Develop GIS maps indicating where needed resources are (high-wind regions, coal seams, underground CO2 geologies, compressed air storage geologies, etc.)
- Identify existing excess capacity on the grid, or low-cost transmission upgrade opportunities that could handle much of the increased flow of electricity
**   ****>  Identify new, least-cost transmission corridors to provide needed flexibility and future capacity with minimum environmental impact**
- Produce a detailed report of above findings, including discussion of possible financing strategies and policy options

## Proposed Team

- Jeffery Greenblatt, Environmental Defense
- Peter Black, GIS specialist, Environmental Defense
- Research assistant (to be hired) at Environmental Defense
- Bob Williams and Samir Succar, Princeton University
- Mike Dvorak, Ph.D. student, Stanford University
- Paul Denholm and Nate Blair, NREL
- Scott White, GIS specialist, Kansas Geologic Survey
- Partner at DOE?

## Preliminary GIS Analysis