# Presentation: 270967

## Experiences from the water resources and agricultural sectors during drought: What do users want? What do researchers want? What is needed?

**Experiences from the water resources and agricultural sectors during drought: *****What do users want? What do researchers want? What is needed?***

**Robert. S. Webb****  (NOAA OAR Earth System Research Laboratory)**
**Roger S. Pulwarty**** (NOAA CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center)**

## Framing of the Questions:

**Critical Issue Driven****	****- Reliability of water supply****	****- Yield and profitability of agriculture production**
**Overarching temporal and spatial scales of climate impacting these critical issues**
**Need to understand information needs, quality and acceptability of information, context of use, accessibility and benefit**

**Drought**

## 2001-2002 Drought in Colorado

**2001-2002 Drought in Colorado**

**WET**
**DRY**

**(Average 100 year natural flow ~14.8 maf)**
**Years ****	****Duration  Average Flow**
**1931-1935 ****	****5 years ****	****11.4 maf**
**1953-1956 ****	****4 years ****	****10.2 maf**
**1959-1964 ****	****6 years ****	****11.4 maf**
**1988-1992 ****	****5 years ****	****10.9 maf**
**2000-2004 ****	****5 years ****	****  9.9 maf**

**WY2002**

**Average**

**Colorado River Flow**

**Winter wheat production fell by nearly 30 million bushels between 2001 and 2002**
**Most irrigators received only 50% of their typical supply, 14% received none.**

**Snow pack was 56% of average. Complete meltout 48 days early**

## Water Agriculture Production: Yield and profitability(collaborative project with CSU) 

**Water Agriculture Production****: Yield and profitability****(*****collaborative project with CSU*****) **

**Sector Dependent Requirements**
**What is going on over a year****	****- What seed to buy and how much ****	****- When/if to plant or abandon crop ****	****- Irrigate or lease out water rights****	****	****- Buy feed or cull herd**
**Information needs (monitored and/or forecasted)**

- What types of climate monitoring and climate forecast products could help mitigate the impacts of drought on agriculture?
- When in the agriculture management decision process is this information needed for making strategic decisions and for making tactical decisions.
- Where and how do you get climate and weather information

## When did you first make changes in your production practices because of the 2002 drought?

**When did you first make changes in your production practices because of the 2002 drought?**

**Before****March**

**March**

**April**

**May**

**June**

**July**

** ****August**

**No Changes ****  Made**

**Sept **

## What is the latest date an accurate drought forecast for Colorado would have been useful to you for making different production decisions than those actually made?

**What is the latest date an accurate drought forecast for Colorado would have been useful to you for making different production decisions than those actually made?**

**Before****November****        2001**

**November****2001**

**December****2001**

**January****2002**

**February****2002**

**Never **

**March****2002**

**April****2002**

**May 2002**

## Water Resource Management: reliability of supply

**Water Resource Management: ****reliability of supply**

**Sector Dependent Requirements**
**What is going on over a year****	****- Seasonally dependent deliveries ****	****- Peak and minimum flow ****	****- Optimize reservoir water levels****	****- Hydropower production**
**Information needs (monitored and/or forecasted)**

- Temperature & Precipitation
- Evapotranspiration, evaporative losses
- Demand metrics, water and hydropower
- Outlooks of these, and how precipitation and temperature outlooks relate to long term average or other thresholds_x0013_

- Snowpack/SWE
- Soil moisture
- Streamflow
- Timing of spring peak and late season low flows
- Reservoir levels
- Ground water
- Surface water supply index (SWSI)

## Water Resource Management: optimizing risk reduction

## Water Resource Management: barriers to use

| Factor | Water Manager’s Perspective | Researcher’s Perspective |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Identifying critical issue |  |  |
| Time frame |  |  |
| Spatial resolution |  |  |
| Goals |  |  |
| Basis for Decisions |  |  |
| Expectation |  |  |
| Product Characteristics |  |  |
| Frame |  |  |
| Nature of Use |  |  |

## Water Resource Management: communication challenge

| Factor | Water Manager’s Perspective | Researcher’s Perspective |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Identifying critical issue | Based on experience | External assessment |
| Time frame | Immediate (operations)Long-term (infrastructure) | Scientifically defensibleFundable project |
| Spatial resolution | Institutional boundaries or authorities | Scientifically defensible/funding |
| Goals | Optimization of multiple conditions and minimize adverse impacts | Enhanced understanding, prediction, explanation |
| Basis for Decisions | Procedure, judgment, training, Economics, Politics, risk reduction | Scientific methods, funding availability, disciplinary training |
| Expectation | Save money and timeProtect the life and property | Understanding, prediction, continued improvement |
| Product Characteristics | Simple but accurateContext is important | Peer-review publication and recognition |
| Frame | Safety and well being, ProfitConsistency with institutional culture, policy, etc. | Physical (atmospheric, hydrologic, etc.) conditions as driversDependent on scientific discipline |
| Nature of Use | Applied | Conceptual |

## What do users want? What do researchers want? What is needed?: Conclusions and Insights 

**An outcome of the drought has been the development of regional partnerships between users of climate information and researchers.**
**These partnerships make it possible to develop a mutual understanding of how problems are framed including drought information needs and usability of various climate products. **
**These partnerships provide alternatives to external research-based optimization and simulations to identify opportunities to improve operational efficiency.**
**Interests now extend beyond current drought conditions to  assessments of recent droughts in the context of longer-term climate variability and change (e.g., how much more extreme or changes in expected occurrence interval).**

## What do users want? What do researchers want? What is needed?: Future Directions

**Users and researchers need to partner in a dialog about managing risks and hedging strategies. **
**How such partnerships are supported and sustained remains an open question.**