# Presentation: 002442

## Conflict & Complementarityin DG Research

- Andrew T. Green, Ph.D.
- Democracy Fellow
**http://atgreen.home.comcast.net/Research.htm**

## Introduction

- Research perspective needed for better:
- Programming
- Policy
- Strategy
- Capacity should not be *ad hoc* or part-time, but _full-time_ and _resident_

## Unique Context for DG Research

- Meta Issues
- Policy/Practice
- Resources/Staffing
- Output/Outcome

- Methodology Issues
- Causality
- Data
- Case, Country

- Maturation of Sector, plus Public Accountability, but...

-  Improvement via application of research perspective 
- (Green/Kohl article in *Democratization*, January 2007)

## Evaluations

- Bollen/Paxton Critique
- Poor Methodology
- Data, Attribution Problems
- Toward a Solution
- Surveys provide baseline data
- Include control/nontreatment cases
- (Blue/Green/Galaty evaluation of ICNL, 2005)

## Indicators

- We need better indicators for just about everything...
- ...fortunately, work is being done to resolve this problem!
- LAPOP, Afrobarometer
- NGOSI, MSI
- WIP: Local Govt, Election Systems, RoL; others
- (AGreen’s NPS, trade union, access to info indicators, 02/04)

## SORA

- Absolutely most ambitious/unique effort among donors!
- Quantitative Analysis
- Never done before
- Database of USAID actual appropriations, 1990-2005
- Findings positive (phew!)
- Qualitative Analysis
- Most important phase of SORA...
- ...but really expensive in terms of money/time
- (SSRC Consultant, USAID Democracy Fellow)

## When Policy & Scholarship Collide

- Freedom House, *How Freedom Is Won*, 2005
- 67 successful attempts at democratic transition
- Factors: Driver, Strength, Source
- Findings:
- ‘People Power’ movements matter
- Little positive effect for ‘top-down’ transitions
- Strong/cohesive civic coalitions important
- Positive effect for nonviolent opposition
- Synergy implication: ‘Paradigm shift’ of funding to civic forces
- But...study is flawed, misleading, and simplistic

## FH Critique: Design & Narrative

- Flawed Design
- Only looks at *SUCCESSFUL* attempts
- Factors based on pre-attempt context
- Excludes earlier attempts
- Does not differentiate post-communist cases
- Ignores diffusion (1989?)
- Confusing Narrative
- Inconsistent use of terms
- ‘Civic coalition’ actually includes regime reformers

## FH Critique: Interpretation I

- Not ‘people power’
- Civic 18, Mixed Civic/Powerholder 32, Powerholder 14
- Some Civic were moderate/weak strength
- Opposition violence in 10 out of 50
- Little positive effect for ‘top-down’ transitions
- True for Powerholder only
- Mixed Civic/Powerholder similar to Civic only

## FH Critique: Interpretation II

- Strong civic forces most important factor
- Mixed outperforms Civic, especially Moderate Strength
- Failures in Civic + Strong
- Nonviolent opposition best for later democracy
- Mutual nonviolence in 35 of 47 cases
- Mixed + State Violence not negative
- Sum: Drivers different, ~Strength, ~Nonviolence

## FH Critique: Re-Analysis

- Statistical Analysis
- Only Strength associated significantly
- Violence by state/none better
- Regression shows only Strength
- Boolean (Set) Analysis
- Good: Mixed+ Strong/Mod 30; Civic+Nonviolence 9
- Bad: Civic+MutualViolence 4
- Toss-Up: Civic+StateViolence 4; Powerholder+Weak 13

## FH Critique: Findings/Implications

- Mixed different than Civic
- Moderate strength effective enough
- Violence not necessarily negative
- No synergy, no need for ‘paradigm shift’
- Different Policy Implications:
- Identify regime reformers _in addition to_ civic forces
- Budgets might be adequate, beware zero-sum shifts

## FH Critique: Cautionary Tale

- Controls Lacking in Applied Research
- No anonymous peer review
- No enforceable recommendations
- Methodological details missing
**  ****Caveat emptor!  **

## Applying a Research Perspective

- Recognize unique context for DG research
- Conduct more rigorous evaluations
- Develop better data and indicators
- Pursue SORA if it will be useful, not just expensive
- Produce and consume applied research carefully
**http://atgreen.home.comcast.net/Research.htm**