# Presentation: 702448

## Climate Change, Uncertainty and Forecasts of Global to Landscape Ecosystem Dynamics

**Ron Neilson**
- Leader, MAPSS Team
- USDA Forest Service
- Pacific Northwest Research Station
- Corvallis, Oregon  97333
- rneilson@fs.fed.us
- (541) 750-7303

## PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FORECAST

- JULY-SEPTEMBER 2007

- AVERAGED ACROSS ALL FIVE WEATHER FORECASTS

- OBSERVED WEATHER PERIOD:  thru APR 2007
- FORECAST WEATHER PERIOD:  MAY thru NOV 2007

## MC1 DGVM FIRE RISK CONSENSUS FORECAST

- OBSERVED WEATHER PERIOD:  thru MAR 2007
- FORECAST WEATHER PERIOD:  APR thru OCT 2007

- JANUARY-OCTOBER 2007

- NUMBER OF WEATHER FORECASTS RESULTING IN  FIRE OCCURRENCE

## MC1 DGVM FIRE RISK CONSENSUS FORECAST

- OBSERVED WEATHER PERIOD:  thru MAR 2007
- FORECAST WEATHER PERIOD:  APR thru OCT 2007
- TOTAL ACRES BURNED: 1,940,458 ACRES

- JANUARY-OCTOBER 2007

- ACRES BURNED

## Future ClimateManaging for Change with Uncertainty

- Multi-Scale Assessment (Persistent, Ongoing)
- Global to Local Scales
- Near to Long Term Scales
- Natural Climate Variability – Near term Variability vs. Long term trends
- Historical Management Legacy – e.g., Fire Suppression
- Natural Resources and Issues of Concern
**What – **Biodiversity – Vegetation Type and Species Distribution
**Function -- **Global Carbon Balance – Sources and Sinks, Forest Productivity
**How Change? – **Catastrophic Disturbance, e.g. Fire and Infestation
- Management *Of* Change, per se
- Perpetual Uncertainty
- Toolbox for Managers

## Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature: 1000 to 2100

**Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature: 1000 to 2100**

**1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; **
**1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental;**
**2000 to 2100, SRES projections**

- Uncertainty is due to both
- Emissions Scenarios and
- Climate Models

- Similar to Glacial –
- Interglacial
- Temperature Change

## The Low End of Some Models

**Temperature difference: **
**2070-2099 vs. 1961-1990**

**A2**

**B1**

**A1B**

**MIROC MEDRES**

**CSIRO MK3**

**The Low End of Some Models**
**Is as High as**
**The High End of Other Models**

## The Uncertainties are Often

**2070-2099 vs. 1961-1990**

**MIROC MEDRES**

**CSIRO MK3**

**A2**

**B1**

**A1B**

**The Uncertainties are Often**
**Greater Between Climate Models**
**Than between Emissions Scenarios!**

## A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems

**Gt/yr Carbon **
**Sink                Source **

**A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems**
**Scholze et al. 2006. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.**

**LPJ  DGVM**
**16 Climate**
**Scenarios**

***Early***
***Greenup***

***Later***
***Browndown***

**Global Simulated Ecosystem Carbon Change (Pg)**
**MAPSS Team, In Prep.**

**Gt Carbon **
**Sink                Source **

**MC1  DGVM**
**3 Climate**
**Scenarios**

## Percent Change in Biomass Burned 

**Percent Change in Biomass Burned**** **
**MAPSS Team, In Prep.**
**CSIRO_MK3 A2**

**Fire Increases Across the Western U.S.**
**But, Look at the Boreal Forest**

## Percent Change in Total Ecosystem Carbon

**Percent Change in Total Ecosystem Carbon**
**MAPSS Team, In Prep.**
**CSIRO_MK3 A2**

**What will happen to Timber and Carbon Markets?**
**Markets Influence Adaptation**
**The West Sequesters Carbon!**

## Future Woody and Grass Expansion in the West

- Current Climate

- Future Climate
- (CGCM1)

**MAPSS Simulated Vegetation Distribution**

**Future Woody and Grass Expansion in the West**
**Enhance Carbon Storage, and**
**Catastrophic Wildfire, But...**

**Notes:**
Simulated (MAPSS) vegetation distribution under the warmer future scenario shows a large increase in woody vegetation and grasslands throughout the West. 

## In the Future

**Average Biomass Burned**
**CGCM2a (2050-2099)**

**In the Future**
**The West gets Woodier, and**
**It burns a lot more!...**
**But, look at the East!**

## LPJ  DGVM

- Red     = + Fire
- Green 	= - Fire

- Changes relative to
- Base Period 1961 – 1990

**LPJ  DGVM**
**16 Climate Scenarios**

**Scholze et al. ****2006****. **
**Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.**

- Different Ecological Model
- Different Climate Scenarios
- Same Changes in Fire

## Current Vegetation (1961-1990)

**CGCM2-A2 Scenario**

**Current Vegetation (1961-1990)**
**Suppressed Fire**

**Suppressed Fire**

**With Fire**

**MC1  DGVM**

**MAPSS Team, In Prep.**

## VINCERA HADCM3-A2 

**VINCERA HADCM3-A2 **
**Eastern Deciduous Forest Region**

## Vegetation Classification

**Temperate Deciduous Forest**

**Temperate Deciduous Woodland**

**1900**

**2000**

**2042**

**2100**

**Vegetation Classification**
**High CO****2**** Sensitivity, No Fire Suppression**

**Notes:**
VCLASS / 7: TEMPERATE DECIDUOUS FOREST  13: TEMPERATE DECIDUOUS WOODLAND

## Biomass Consumed By Fire (g C/m2)

**Biomass Consumed By Fire (g C/m****2****)**
**Low CO****2**** Sensitivity, No Fire Suppression**

**1900**

**2000**

**2042**

**2100**

**Notes:**
BIO_CONSUME: BIOMASS CONSUMED BY FIRE (g C/m2)

## Total Live Vegetation Carbon (g C/m2)

**Total Live Vegetation Carbon (g C/m****2****)**
**High CO****2**** Sensitivity, With Fire Suppression**

**‘****Greening’ Processes Become Saturated**

**1900**

**2000**

**2042**

**2100**

**Satellite Observed**
**Greening**

**Notes:**
VEGCX: TOTAL LIVE VEGETATION CARBON (g C/m2)

## Total Live Vegetation Carbon (g C/m2)

**Total Live Vegetation Carbon (g C/m****2****)**
**High CO****2**** Sensitivity, No Fire Suppression**

**Persistent fire maintains young ecosystems,**
**But changes vegetation to a different, quasi-stable state.**

**1900**

**2000**

**2042**

**2100**

**Satellite Observed**
**Greening**

**Notes:**
VEGCX: TOTAL LIVE VEGETATION CARBON (g C/m2)

## Fire Ignition Trigger

**Threshold Of Palmer Drought Severity Index **
** *****Surrogate for Live Vegetation Moisture***** **

**Dry**

**Wet**

**1950s**
**Drought**

**1900**

**2000**

**2042**

**2100**

**Fire Ignition Trigger**

- Future
- Climate
- Regime
- Shift

- Ignition
- Threshold

**Notes:**
PDSI THRES FOR FIRE OCCURRENCE <= -2.25
PDSI is the Palmer Drought Severity Index 

## Fire Ignition Trigger

**Threshold Of 1000-hr Moisture Content**

**1900**

**2000**

**2042**

**2100**

**Evaporative Demand Increases Exponentially**
**With Temperature**

**Fire Ignition Trigger**

- Ignition
- Threshold

**Notes:**
1000-HR MC THRES FOR FIRE OCCURRENCE <= 12.0
1000-HR MC is the percentage moisture content of the 1000-hr dead fuel class

## Fire Ignition Trigger

**Threshold of Fine Fuel Ignition **
**(a function of 1 hr Fuel Moisture)**

**Evaporative Demand Increases Exponentially**
**With Temperature**

**1900**

**2000**

**2042**

**2100**

**Fire Ignition Trigger**

- Ignition
- Threshold

**Notes:**
PFLAMM THRES FOR FIRE OCCURRENCE >= 45
PFLAMM is the probability of fine fuel ignition given an ignition source

## Management Toolbox

**Current management strategies presume the *****‘status quo’***
**the past is a good predictor of the future.**
- Most Current modeling tools, e.g. FVS, TELSA and VDDT, cannot use climate.
**Re-build tools to be ‘climate smart’, yet to retain their ‘look and feel’. **
- Reframe management strategies for a changing climate
- add new field experiments
- identify underlying assumptions
- Re-examine regeneration, restoration techniques

## Management Implications(personal musings)

- Management Goals face an *uncertain* Future
- The Future will NOT echo the Past
- Instead,... Manage *Change, per se*
- Desired *function* may supercede ‘Desired future *condition*’ Improve resilience of ecosystems to rapid change
- Possible strategies
- Keep forest density below water-limited carrying capacity
- Plant diversity as opposed to homogeneous monocultures
- Use Plants as an Energy Source
- Fire, carbon, water and other policies may be at cross-purposes, demanding creative management of change

## Total Ecosystem Carbon (g C/m2)

**Total Ecosystem Carbon (g C/m****2****)**
**High CO****2**** Sensitivity, With Fire Suppression**

**‘****Greening’ Processes Become Saturated**

**1900**

**2000**

**2042**

**2100**

**Satellite Observed**
**Greening**

**Notes:**
TOTC_DEC: TOTAL ECOSYSTEM CARBON (g C/m2)

## Early Greenup – Later Browndown

**Total Ecosystem Carbon (g C/m****2****)**
**High CO****2**** Sensitivity, No Fire Suppression**

**Persistent fire maintains young ecosystems,**
**But gradually reduces soil carbon.**

***Early Greenup – Later Browndown***

**1900**

**2000**

**2042**

**2100**

**Satellite Observed**
**Greening**

**Notes:**
TOTC_DEC: TOTAL ECOSYSTEM CARBON (g C/m2)