# Presentation: 085801

## AIRPACT-3: CMAQ Air Quality Forecasting for the Pacific and Inland Northwest U.S.

**Joe Vaughan, Jack Chen, Jeremy Avise and Brian Lamb**
**Laboratory for Atmospheric Research**
**Washington State University**
***2006 National Air Quality Conference, San Antonio***

**AIRPACT-3: CMAQ Air Quality Forecasting for the Pacific and Inland Northwest U.S.**

## Topics

- Motivations for AIRPACT projects
-  One, Two, Three...
- Implementation Architecture
- Boundary Conditions
- Post-processing design and status
- Examples of Results
- CALGRID—CMAQ Comparison for Summer Ozone
- AIRPACT-3 Results for Coarse PM
- AIRPACT-3 Results for Winter Stagnation Event PM2.5
- Near Term Goals
- Conclusion

## Motivation for AIRPACTForecast Simulations

- Next day air quality forecasts
- AQ alerts & warnings
- asthma hot line for sensitive individuals
- Long term automated simulation record
- Air toxics health analyses
- Model evaluation over range of conditions
- Archive for special regulatory needs & analyses
- Ensembles could provide ‘what-if’ view of potential control strategies
- Accumulated deposition for ecosystem impact studies
- Public awareness and education
- Web products available daily to enhance public awareness
- Detailed picture of air pollutant behavior
- Ideal academic resource

## AIRPACT - History

*Airpact, 2000: MM5****Calmet****Calgrid over a 62 x 67 4- km domain for Puget Sound Region.  (Vaughan et al., BAMS 2004)*
*Airpact-2, 2003: Expanded to a 81 x 138 4-km domain and included air toxics and PM tracers.  (A. Mahmud, MS Thesis 2005)*
***Airpact-3, 2005: conversion to CMAQ with expansion of domain to cover ID, WA, OR and southern BC, with  resolution of  95 x 95 12-km grid.***

## AIRPACT-3 

- MCIP: MM5 or WRF
- w/ expanded but lower resolution domain
- SMOKE emission processing tool for dynamic emissions estimation.
- Models-3 CMAQ model:
- SAPRC O3, reactive tracer toxics, includes Hg chemistry
- PM in Aitken, accumulation, & coarse modes
- Deposition of N, S, & Hg species

- Acrolein
- Benzene
- 1,3-Butadiene
- Perchloroethylene
- Formaldehyde
- Acetaldehyde
- Phenanthrene

- PM species
-  Nitrates
-  Sulfates
-  Organic aerosols
-  Wind-Blown Dust
-  PM2.5 total mass

## AIRPACT-3 w/ SMOKE and CMAQ

- MM5 / WRF 12km forecast

- MCIP

- ICON (previous day)

- BCON (MOZART monthly)

- SMOKE

- CMAQ CCTM

- Output to Web

- Verify / Statistics CCTM with Obs.

- ICON(for next day)

- AreaMobilePointBiogenicWild Fire

- Runtime: 1.5 hrs on 2 nodes (4 CPU)

- UW

- WSU

## AIRPACT-3 BCON

- AIRPACT-3 will use BCON from monthly average profiles from MOZART for the 1990-2000 period.

**Elevation (m)**

**< AIRPACT-2 top**

**< AIRPACT-3 top**

## Quick-look verification with Day-after-Results 

**Capture and process observations from WA, **ID, OR and BC
**Air Pollution Monitors**
**Meteorological Sensors **
**Regenerate GIF files for animation of predicted and observed for selected species:**
**CMAQ results **
- MCIP variables
- Generate CMAQ results summary:
- ASCII dataset of paired predictions and observations for download.
- Statistical Characterization of CMAQ predictions vs. observations as an ASCII report w/ graphics.

## www.AIRPACT-3.wsu.edu

## AIRPACT-3Summer  Ozone w/ Obs 

## 8-hr daily maximum observed and modeled O3 within 15 sites (paired in time)

- 8-hr daily maximum observed and modeled O3 within 15 sites (paired in time)
- Preliminary CMAQ analysis using AIRPACT-2 domain, Sept 2003.

## CMAQ Coarse PMWind-blown dust is a regional concern in the arid intermountain west)  

## PM2.5 Emissions for Winter Stagnation Event of Dec 5 – 13, 2005

## Representative Observed vs. Predicted PM2.5 for Dec 12, 2005

**Representative Observed vs. Predicted PM2.5 for Dec 12, 2005**

## Winter Stagnation Event of  Dec 5 – 13, 2005

## PBL Height and Ventilation Index

- December 11, 2005

## 11/29				12/05			12/09

- 11/29				12/05			12/09
- 12/10				12/11			12/13

## Seattle and sites north along I-5

- PM2.5 24-h running mean observations

- PM2.5 24-h running mean predictions

## Cities south of Seattle along I-5

- PM2.5 24-h running mean observations

- PM2.5 24-h running mean predictions

## West and east foothills of the Cascade Mountains

- PM2.5 24-h running mean observations

- PM2.5 24-h running mean predictions

## Eastern WA Cities

- PM2.5 24-h running mean observations

- PM2.5 24-h running mean predictions

## Slide 22

## MM5 WS Mean Absolute Errorsfrom UW automated verification statistics

- For WS > 1.5 m/s, Mean absolute errors ~ 2 m/s , but not evaluated for slower winds

## Near Term Development Goals

**Improve post-processing analyses **
**Quick-look statistics and Graphics**
**Chemical, aerosol and met species**
** ****Deposition results for N, S and Hg**
**Wind Blown Agricultural Dust Emissions Module Based on from WEPS (Wagner at KSU/WERU)**

## Summary

- AIRPACT-3 now running with expanded PNW domain, 12-km grid cells
- Includes reactive toxic tracers
- Includes Hg chemistry and deposition
- Work is underway to incorporate USDA WEPS windblown dust emissions
- Performance evaluation underway
- Preliminary O3 analysis showed good performance
- Wintertime stagnation event indicates problems at most sites with PM2.5 underestimation—cause may be MM5 winds and mixing in stagnation shallow layer
- Extensive analysis for July – Dec 2004 planned using Columbia Gorge PM speciation monitoring project data
- Analysis of N, S, & Hg deposition

## Acknowledgements

- NW-AIRQUEST support for AIRPACT
- NW International Air Quality & Environmental Science Technology Consortium
- 17 local, state and federal agencies
- Environment Canada & other Canadian agencies
- WSU, UW, and UBC
- Mission:  provide sound science in support of regional air quality management
- Thank You!

## AIRPACT-3SummerPM2.5 w/ Obs 

*AIRPACT-3**Summer**PM2.5 w/ Obs *