# Presentation: 175957

## SPACE WEATHER FOR THE DOD WARFIGHTER: CURRENT OPS AND PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS

**SPACE WEATHER FOR THE DOD WARFIGHTER: ****CURRENT OPS AND PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS**

**Col John M. Lanicci, Ph.D.**
**AFWA/CC**

## Roles and Responsibilities
The Space Weather Operations Center (WOC)
Customers and impacts
Current Capabilities
Shortfalls
Technology Transition and Near Term Projects
AFWA Tech Transition Process
GAIM Implementation at AFWA
Other near term projects
Way Ahead

**The Space Weather Operations Center (WOC)**
**Customers and impacts**
**Current Capabilities**
**Shortfalls**
**Technology Transition and Near Term Projects**
**AFWA Tech Transition Process**
**GAIM Implementation at AFWA**
**Other near term projects**
**Way Ahead**

***Overview***

**Notes:**
- PURPOSE:  Overview slide

## Space Characterization Mission:
Plan and program for acquisition of ground-based sensing solutions to fulfill DoD space environmental monitoring requirements
Plan and program for acquisition of space-based sensing solutions to fulfill DoD space environmental monitoring requirements
Develop and maintain the space environmental 4-D (specification and prediction) data cube to include modeling

**Plan and program for acquisition of *****ground-based***** sensing solutions to fulfill DoD space environmental monitoring requirements**
**Plan and program for acquisition of *****space-based***** sensing solutions to fulfill DoD space environmental monitoring requirements**
**Develop and maintain the space environmental 4-D (specification and prediction) data cube to include modeling**

***Roles and Responsibilities***

**Notes:**
PURPOSE:  Outline R&R to demonstrate that the lion share of space environmental support falls to AFW; however we are still dependent on other sources to get the mission done.

AFWA builds and maintains the environmental data cube
AFWA is responsible for obtaining the ground based sensors
AFSPC is responsible for Space based
KEY:  Both agencies are advocates for the other in prioritizing sensing needs

AFWA brings together the observations and modeling to populate the 4-D data cube

## Roles and Responsibilities

***Roles and Responsibilities***

_**DoD Operational Mission:**_**  ****Through the Space WOC, provide 24/7 mission-tailored analyses, forecasts, and warnings of system-impacting space weather to DoD and National agency operators, warfighters, and decision-makers.**
_**Strategic Backup Mission:**_**  ****Civilian counterpart *****Space Environment Center***** (Boulder, CO) and AFWA are striving for federally-mandated mutual backup capability.**

**Notes:**
Once the data cube is built it is the Space WOC which is given the role of Operation Center to the DoD

Note that the Strategic Backup Mission creates a challenge to data sharing initiatives as neither agency can afford to become dependant upon the other and still fulfill the backup role... this is a challenge area to both agencies moving forward as many interdependencies exist today.

## Customers and Impacts

**Notes:**
PURPOSE:  Answers the who cares and what is ultimately provided questions?

The Space WOC supports end users across all spectrums of DoD support:
Strategic Level: Satellite systems, launch control, National Intelligence Agencies
Operational Level:  Reconnaissance, Early Warning Radars and Airborne control systems
Tactical Level:  Communications... Special Forces Support

Developed and provides a number of products to support these users
HF Illumination for HF communication prediction
Scintillation products for UHF support
High Altitude Radiation Exposure
Auroral Radar Clutter
Relativistic Electron product

These products require specification and prediction of space environmental data to be effective

## Space Weather Mission Impacts:
HF Communication Centers:  Routinely report dayside impacts during flares
UHF Impact: Deployed personnel struggled to provided a regular brief via SATCOM at 2100L... Infusion of scintillation forecast support convinced them to move brief time earlier with success.
HF Impact: Thule Greenland radio maintenance personnel observed unexplained several day outages... Infusion of space weather support revealed Polar Cap Absorption events (not broken radios) as the cause

**HF Communication Centers:  Routinely report dayside impacts during flares**
**UHF Impact: Deployed personnel struggled to provided a regular brief via SATCOM at 2100L... Infusion of scintillation forecast support convinced them to move brief time earlier with success.**
**HF Impact: Thule Greenland radio maintenance personnel observed unexplained several day outages... Infusion of space weather support revealed Polar Cap Absorption events (not broken radios) as the cause**

***Customers and Impacts***

**Notes:**
PURPOSE:  Answers the why is this important question...  

On the first... This is more of a proof that space weather has impacts... not so much that XOGX can do much about it... a potentially funny story... XOGX routinely calls the HF centers during flares to gauge the impact... during one flare, the duty forecaster called the HF center in Hawaii and asked if they were able to check their communications with Yokota, Japan... the Pacific was right in the center of the daylight side and should be receiving the maximum impact from this flare... the radio operator returned and told the duty forecaster that he heard Yokota ‘loud and clear’... the stunned forecaster asked the radio operator what frequency was he using... the radio operator replied: “oh I couldn’t get him on the radio, so I called him on the phone.”

On the second... A deployed team was trying to conduct a daily brief via SATCOM each night at 2100, not aware that evening scintillation could be a problem... they struggled to make the brief happen day after day until a space weather forecaster happen to deploy to that area, saw the problem, arranged space weather support for them, and now they work thier briefs around scintillation.

On the Third... Thule Greenland radio operators were have strange multi-day radio outages that they attributed to maintenance issues and would spend days pulling radios apart and such... Once the unit started getting space weather support, they realized that it was Polar Cap Absorption Events that were preventing communications for long periods of time and not anything to do with the radios themselves... clearly, this knowledge has since saved many hours of wasted maintenance effort.

## Specification starts with collecting remote and in-situ data
Ground Based: Includes solar (optical & radio), ionosondes, magnetometers, GPS, SCINDA, and neutron monitors
Space Based: Includes DMSP, LANL, GOES, POES, ACE, SOHO
Data from many government and non-government sources
Data partnerships crucial

**Ground Based: Includes solar (optical & radio), ionosondes, magnetometers, GPS, SCINDA, and neutron monitors**
**Space Based: Includes DMSP, LANL, GOES, POES, ACE, SOHO**
**Data from many government and non-government sources**
**Data partnerships crucial**

***Current Capabilities - Observations***

**Notes:**
PURPOSE:  Observational data is the key to situational awareness and modeling... Interdependencies are unavoidable.

Observational data is drawn from both ground based and space based platforms
It is sensed both remotely and in-situ
It comes from AF owned assets in some cases (Solar)
But ultimately data must come from a wide variety of government and non-government sources to maximize data coverage where possible
Data is used for both situational awareness and (increasingly) to feed data driven models to specify in areas without data coverage and permit prediction

Physics based modeling will require more data coverage of all space domains

## Ionosphere
Large Scale:  Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model (PRISM)
Specification only 
Climatology adjusted from limited real-time data and conditioned by a global index
Scintillation: Wide Band MODel (WBMOD)
Climatology conditioned by location, time and a global disturbance index
Auroral: Hardy Oval
Specification only

**Ionosphere**
**Large Scale:  Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model (PRISM)**
**Specification only **
**Climatology adjusted from limited real-time data and conditioned by a global index**
**Scintillation: Wide Band MODel (WBMOD)**
**Climatology conditioned by location, time and a global disturbance index**
**Auroral: Hardy Oval**
**Specification only**

***Current Capabilities - Modeling***

**Notes:**
PUPOSE:  Overview current modeling capability... We are steadily building capability as it matures.

Ionosphere is our primary domain...

PRISM (soon to be replace by GAIM) handles the large scale environment... We then employ specialty models to handle the small scale process of scintillation and  the details of the Auroral region

Current capability for all three efforts is limited to conditional climatology with some ‘real’ data input.

GAIM will impact only the large scale environmental modeling capability... At least in the near term, conditional climatology (conditioned with some ‘real’ data) will continue with the two specialized regions.

## Magnetosphere:
Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM) 
Developed by Rice University
3 hr Prediction of inner magnetosphere 
Relativistic Electrons @ Geostationary
APL Developed
27 day prediction
Solar Wind: Hakamada Akasofu Fry (HAF) Kinematic Solar Wind Model 
Univ. Alaska - Fairbanks
96 hr forecast

**Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM) **
**Developed by Rice University**
**3 hr Prediction of inner magnetosphere **
**Relativistic Electrons @ Geostationary**
**APL Developed**
**27 day prediction**
**Solar Wind: ****Hakamada Akasofu Fry (HAF) Kinematic Solar Wind Model**** **
**Univ. Alaska - Fairbanks**
**96 hr forecast**

***Current Capabilities - Modeling***

**Notes:**
PUPOSE:  Overview current modeling capability... We are steadily building capability as it matures.

Capability in these other domains is critical to predictability in the ionosphere!!!

We have fielded capaiblity in the magnetosphere... the MSFM handles the large scale particle environment while the Relativistic Electron application is specific to geostationary.

The HAF model handles the prediction between the sun and earth’s magnetosphere and is being transitioned into operations as we speak. (IOC is due on 15 Mar, but XOGX is already using output)

Note that we have no capability beyond rules of thumb to deal with the solar disk itself...  This will be a long term nut to crack, but a critical one if we are to ever stretch prediction to cover the 120 hr ATO cycle.  (Again, the White Paper would be a great review prior to this brief.)

Also, we have no thermospheric modeling capability... AFSPC runs some specific atmospheric drag applications... we will look to close this gap in the coming years.

## While the Space WOC has considerable capability, the   4-D data cube has not been fully realized
AFWA lacks predictive models for several domains
Much modeling capability is based on conditional climatology driven by global indices... Need to move to physics based modeling as technology allows
Many domains are severely under sampled
Some shortfalls driven by a lack of basic research understanding

AFWA utilizes an aggressive Tech Transition process to combat these shortfalls
Partnerships are again crucial

**AFWA lacks predictive models for several domains**
**Much modeling capability is based on conditional climatology driven by global indices... Need to move to physics based modeling as technology allows**
**Many domains are severely under sampled**
**Some shortfalls driven by a lack of basic research understanding**
**AFWA utilizes an aggressive Tech Transition process to combat these shortfalls**
**Partnerships are again crucial**

***Shortfalls***

**Notes:**
PURPOSE:  Transition into the tech transition portion of the talk... Why do we want a robust tech transition process

You could note our mission modeling domains (solar disk and thermosphere) and the lack of capability to predict for the entire 120 hr ATO cycle... This requirement is really Herculean when you consider the current state of the field, but it is the goal we must work towards however incrementally we must go.

## In-House         (traditional)

Sole-Source            (e.g., AFRL)

Community Approach (developed together)

Community Approach (survey & choose needed technology)

- SMC/ESC

- SEMS Contractor

**AFWA Operational Baseline**

- AFWA/SCS

**Warfighter-Required Technology**
**AFRL, NRL, SEC, NCAR, NASA, UPOS, Universities**** **

**In-House         **(traditional)
**Sole-Source            **(e.g., AFRL)
**Community Approach **(developed together)
**Community Approach **(survey & choose needed technology)

***Technology Leveraging Methods***

**Notes:**
PURPOSE:  Outline our Tech transition process...  No one source!!!  All avenues pursued to keep technology moving and relevant

## In-House         (traditional)

Sole-Source            (e.g., AFRL)

Community Approach (developed together)

Community Approach (survey & choose needed technology)

- SMC/ESC

- SEMS Contractor

**AFWA Operational Baseline**

- AFWA/SCS

**Warfighter-Required Technology**
**AFRL, NRL, SEC, NCAR, NASA, UPOS, Universities**** **

**In-House         **(traditional)
**Sole-Source            **(e.g., AFRL)
**Community Approach **(developed together)
**Community Approach **(survey & choose needed technology)

***Technology Leveraging Methods***

**Notes:**
PURPOSE:  Tranisition to GAIM as an example of a community tech transition approach.

## Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) Model:  IOC Sep 06
Initial release Gauss-Maukov
Uses a Kalman Filter to assimilate 
Provides 24 hour forecast
Follow-on “full physics” upgrade planned for FY08
Developed at Utah State with ONR funding. NRL manages the program. Transitioned by contractor.  Visualization being done in house

**Initial release Gauss-Maukov**
**Uses a Kalman Filter to assimilate **
**Provides 24 hour forecast**
**Follow-on “full physics” upgrade planned for FY08**
**Developed at Utah State with ONR funding. NRL manages the program. Transitioned by contractor.  Visualization being done in house**

***GAIM Implementation***

- Global

- Local

**Notes:**
PURPOSE:  Two-fold  
GAIM represents our first effort to move from conditional climo into physics based modeling and    
b. GAIM is a great example of a ‘community effort’ tech transition... University (Utah State), Government (ONR, NRL, AFWA), and private corporation (NGMS) all involved in the effort.

## Data Initiatives
Create in-house Dst
SSUSI/SSULI Integration
TIMED, COSMIC, STEREO
South Atlantic Anomaly Specification
Model Initiatives
APL Radiation Belt and Auroral Models
NADIA upgrade for MSFM
Dst Prediction
Develop real-time metric program

**Create in-house Dst**
**SSUSI/SSULI Integration**
**TIMED, COSMIC, STEREO**
**South Atlantic Anomaly Specification**
**Model Initiatives**
**APL Radiation Belt and Auroral Models**
**NADIA upgrade for MSFM**
**Dst Prediction**
**Develop real-time metric program**

***Additional Projects***

**Notes:**
PUPOSE:  This list is just a selected example of projects for data and model enhancements we currently have planned over the next year.

-Dst holds promise as a physical based index (as opposed to Kp)... In house will give us the capability to go real time with production... today, Dst is done realtime just once per day and is mostly a research tool... we see operational promise in this index.

-SSUSI/SSULI- are the DMSP UV sensors... critical data source to success of GAIM

-TIMED, COSMIC, STEREO:  We are taking advantage of select ‘research’ or ‘proof of concept’ missions as funds allow to beef up our collection capability

APL models... designed to improve our capabilities in the radiation belt environment and the auroral zones

NADIA – example of a commitment to continuously upgrade current capabilities.

-The comment on the metric program is designed to show that we have a goal to ‘close the loop’ with model development and transition by tracking model performance in real time to track bias and event driven behavior... this data can be used by operational space weather forecasters to assist with second guessing the model appropriately, providing feedback to model developers to target improvements, and for advocacy to describe the impact of models to operations.

## Integration of GAIM into operations will dominate the remainder of the fiscal year
Data issues (e.g. Dst, SSUSI/SSULI) will follow a close second
Continue with additions of targeted capabilities (e.g. Radiation Belt Model) to further enhance operations
Document operational capabilities through metrics to validate models and prioritize targeted improvements
Partnerships (as seen with GAIM) will continue to be crucial to the enhancement of operation support

**Data issues (e.g. Dst, SSUSI/SSULI) will follow a close second**
**Continue with additions of targeted capabilities (e.g. Radiation Belt Model) to further enhance operations**
**Document operational capabilities through metrics to validate models and prioritize targeted improvements**
**Partnerships (as seen with GAIM) will continue to be crucial to the enhancement of operation support**

***Way Ahead***