# Presentation: 170237

## Logistical VerificationForecast Services in IHFS

**Logistical Verification****Forecast Services in IHFS**

- Mary Mullusky

*RFC Verification Workshop, August 14-16 2007*

## Outline

- Logistical Verification Measures
- Forecast Services
- Attributes of Forecast Services
- Forecast Services GUI Demo
- Future
- Lab Exercise
- Review Lab and Questions

## Logistical Verification Measures

- What are logistical verification measures?
- Measures that evaluate the overall quality of a forecast service
- Typically measure non-skill attributes
- Answer questions like
- What new types of forecasts have been developed?
- Is the number of forecast points increasing or decreasing?
- Have computational improvements reduced the effort to issue a forecast?
- Have methodological improvements reduced the time it takes to prepare a basin for forecasting

## Logistical Verification Measures

- A comprehensive description of service efficiency include the following logistical verification measures:
- Characterizing point forecasts by service type, frequency and location (Forecast Services)
- Characterizing areal forecasts by service type, frequency and location
-  Identifying daily the number of issued forecasts by type and location
- Quantifying the person effort required to set up a basin for forecasting, including data gathering, calibration, model setup and implementation efforts
- Quantifying the person effort required to issue each type of forecast, including manual quality control of input data, forecaster run-time modifications and forecaster review and analysis
- Quantifying the timeliness of issued forecasts
- Goal is to standardize and automate the collection of these measures

## Forecast Point Services

- Forecast Services measure what hydrologic services the NWS provides; where these services are provided; and how often.
- The types of forecast services include:
**Data Point Service**: all locations on a river/stream for which observed data is input to RFC or WFO hydrologic forecast procedures, or included in public hydrologic products. *For the purposes of logistical verification, all locations along a river or stream for which hydrologic forecast and warning services are provided (i.e., forecast points) should be included as a data service.*
**Deterministic Forecast Service:** all forecast points for which a single-value forecast is produced
**Ensemble Forecast Service:** all forecast points for which ensemble forecasting is used to generate forecasts and associated uncertainty information.
**Water Supply Forecast Service**: all forecast points for which water supply forecasts are provided

## Forecast Point Services

- These four Forecast Services tables (Data Point Service, Deterministic Forecast Service, Ensemble Forecast Service, Water Supply Forecast Service) are included in OB8.1 IHFS-DB
- Data Service table is initially populated with records in the IngestFilter which have pe codes = H* OR Q*  AND ts codes = F* AND have their lid's appear in the RiverStat table
- RFC personnel will be responsible for populating and maintaining all forecast services information for each lid in the RFC area of responsibility

## Attributes of Forecast ServicesData Point Service (Data and Forecast Points)

- Attributes of Forecast ServicesData Point Service (Data and Forecast Points)

| lid | location id |
| --- | --- |
| flood_thres | user defined flood threshold |
| exceed_prob | From a historical analysis, the probability of exceeding the user defined flood threshold. (%) |
| service_type | service type (data or forecast service) |
| anal_start_date | start date for the historical analysis of the exceedance probability for a given flood threshold |
| anal_end_date | end date for the historical analysis of the exceedance probability for a given flood threshold |
| impl_date | date observed data first used as input to RFC hydrologic procedures |
| web_date | date observed hydrograph first available on web
 |

## Attributes of Forecast ServicesDeterministic Forecast Service

- Attributes of Forecast ServicesDeterministic Forecast Service

| lid | location id |
| --- | --- |
| snow_method | snow computational method for the segment |
| hydrol_method | hydrologic computation method for the segment |
| reservoir_model | reservoir model for the segment |
| upstream_seg | location id of upstream point. Upstream point may be forecast or data point. If current segment is a headwater, then this value is set to ‘xxxxx’.  |
| hydraul_method | Routing computational method for the segment |
| def_issue_crit | Minimum issuance criteria for the forecast service |
| hours_qpf | hours of QPF used in streamflow forecast |
| frequpd_normal | normal operations update frequency |
| frequpd_flood | flood operations update frequency |

## Attributes of Forecast ServicesDeterministic Forecast Service (cont’d)

- Attributes of Forecast ServicesDeterministic Forecast Service (cont’d)

| frequpd_drought | Drought operations update frequency |
| --- | --- |
| fcst_horizon | forecast horizon |
| hours_qtf | hours of temperature forecast used in streamflow forecast |
| hours_qzf | hours of freezing level forecast used in streamflow forecast |
| num_elev_zones | number of elevation zones in mountainous area may be 1,2 or 3 else should be set to 1 |
| consumptive_use | indicates consumptive use model is used for the segment (Y or N) |
| channel_loss | indicates channel loss model is used for the segment (Y or N) |
| fcst_gen_method | forecast generation method |
| impl_date | date service was first produce |
| web_date | date official forecast hydrograph first available on AHPS website |

## Attributes of Forecast ServicesEnsemble Forecast Service

- Attributes of Forecast ServicesEnsemble Forecast Service

| lid | location id |
| --- | --- |
| snow_method | snow computation method for the segment |
| hydrol_method | hydrologic computation method for the segment |
| reservoir_model | reservoir model for the segment |
| upstream_seg | location id of upstream point. Upstream point may be forecast or data point. If current segment is a headwater, then this value is set to ‘xxxxx’.  |
| hydraul_method | routing computation method for the segment |
| flowtype | flow type |
| fcsttype | forecast time horizon type |
| frequpd_normal | normal operations period of issuance |
| frequpd_flood | flood operations period of issuance |
| frequpd_drought | drought operations period of issuance |

## Attributes of Forecast ServicesEnsemble Forecast Service (cont’d)

- Attributes of Forecast ServicesEnsemble Forecast Service (cont’d)

| fcst_horizon | forecast horizon |
| --- | --- |
| nummonclim | number of months climotological forecasts are used in streamflow forecast (0 = N/A) |
| numdayhyd | number of days hydrometeorological forecasts are used in streamflow forecast (0 = N/A) |
| num_elev_zones | number of elevation zones in mountainous area may be 1,2 or 3else should be set to 1 |
| consumptive_use | indicates consumptive use model is used for the segment (Y or N) |
| channel_loss | indicates channel loss model is used for the segment (Y or N) |
| post_processor | post processing model used to create the forecast |
| impl_date | date service was first produced |
| external_date | date product first available the external customers |
| web_date | date graphical products first available on web |

## Attributes of Forecast ServicesWater Supply Forecast Service

- Attributes of Forecast ServicesWater Supply Forecast Service

| lid | location id |
| --- | --- |
| watsup_method | computational method used to produce the water supply forecast |
| watsup_coord_agency | coordinating agency for the water supply forecast |
| frequpd_normal | normal operations period of issuance |
| period_req | period required to be forecast |
| watsup_crit | water supply criteria or interest |
| watsup_resp_agency | agency responsible for issuing the water supply forecast |
| customer_desc | description of customers interested in the water supply forecast |
| impl_date | date service was first produced |
| web_date | date graphical products first available on web |

## Forecast Services GUI Demo

- Start GUI with  /awips/hydroapps/whfs/bin/start_fcstservice
- Demonstrate
- Forecast Services Main Window (Service Table View)
- Data Services (Initially Populated when you create tables)
- Deterministic Forecast Services
- Ensemble Forecast Services
- Water Supply Forecast Services
- Primary Keys
- Foreign Keys
- Drop Downs and Reference Table
- Add/Modify/Delete

## Future

- Forecast Services Policy
- Proposed Policy 10-924 requiring RFC to populate and maintain services field in the IHFS-DB for all data and forecast points
- National River Location DataBase (NRLDB)
- Forecast Services tables pulled from RFCs and combined with WFO E-19 and E-19a information
- Other Logistical Measures
- Implementation to be determined through the AHPS budget prioritization process

## Lab Exercise

- 	For the above forecast points, enter the forecast services information and relate service attributes into the IHFS-DB. (**This will be done by bulk input**). Then, **using the Forecast Services GUI** make services changes as directed.

- TADU1 is a data point, the observed data is provided on the AHPS pages
- TRAC2 is a forecast point where forecasts are only issued when the forecast exceeds the action stage, it is a headwater basin
- UCRC2 is a mandatory daily forecast point, it is downstream of TADU1 and TRAC2
- VRBU1 is a daily mandatory forecast point, it is downstream of UCRC2. Additionally, water supply forecasts are made at this point with both an ESP computational method and the SWS-Principle Components (Regression) method. Recently, the RFC has been experimenting with short-term ensembles at this location.

## Lab Exercise – Follow Up

- Review and Questions
- Survey; Needed GUI or database enhancements

## Thank you

**Thank you**