# Presentation: 924910

## Energy Assurance

**Gil Weigand**
**Strategic Programs**
**Computing and Computational Sciences Directorate**
**December 10, 2007**

## U.S. Energy Production, Distribution and Consumption System is Complex

- Today the system is tightly balanced between supply and demand
- Disruptions impact economy, jobs, & U.S. competitiveness, and may lead to a recession

- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Energy and Efficiency, U.S. Energy Flows 2002 (UCRL-TR-129990-02) https://eed.llnl.gov/flow/02flow.php

## Avoidance of Costly Energy Disruptions = Energy Assurance

***	***
***	*****Energy Assurance is:*****The ability to obtain, without costly disruption, the energy required by the United States in assured, economically viable ways to satisfy residential, commercial, and transportation requirements.***
**	**Disruptions to the Energy We Need Are Inevitable.
- 	You Cannot Eliminate Disruptions!  You Can, However, Make Their Impact Small.

## Energy Assurance

**Energy Assurance Has Three Critical Parts**

**Energy Assurance Is Also A Complex Relationship Among Four Security Themes**

## Not All Elements Within These Security Themes Are Under U.S. Control

## Prevailing Conditions Today

**U.S. Energy Supply vs. Demand is very “tightly wound” and increasingly lacks the flexibility necessary to cope with inevitable disruptions and competition for supply**
**Environmental Security increasingly becoming a factor in energy consumption**
**All major candidates for President have stated the importance of a more independent energy supply and more efficient consumption and distribution of energy for the United States**
**The threats to Energy Assurance for the United States are increasing and are increasingly outside of U.S. control**
**Economic Growth and Energy Assurance are tightly linked**
**Cyber-based systems are perceived by the public as having a poor record for security and the protection of private information**

## Why An Energy Assurance Technology-Based Effort Now?

**The U.S. Public is Poised to Demand Energy Assurance**
**Technology-Based Solutions Are the Most Viable Option for the Central Focus for Achieving Energy Assurance in the Near Term**
**They offer the best opportunity to balance Energy, National, Economic, and Environmental Security**
**They depend upon the existence of a strong U.S. science and technology program**
**They are completely in U.S. control**
**They engage a wide and diverse science, technology and production workforce**
**They address all energy sectors**
**They address production, distribution, and consumption**
**They fuel renewed growth and entrepreneurship**
**They are enabling; not defensive**

## There is no “Silver Bullet”

- The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly Balanced Between Supply and Demand

- HarmfulDisruptions
- (status-quo)

## Fortunately Small Changes Have an Impact on Energy Assurance

- The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly Balanced Between Supply and Demand

- A Small Change Will Have a Big Impact

- Energy Assurance

## Energy Assurance:Path Forward for High Impact

- Investment Capital Model
- (VCs drive business to IPO)

- Dream-Team Model
- (Industry leads partnership)

- IPO Companies

- Demonstrations

- Solutions, Jobs, $$

- Solutions, Jobs, $$

- Create the New

- Fix the Legacy

- Science, Technology, and Innovation
- Exa-Scale Computing by 2015 and 20 by 20

**Industry Will Deliver the Broad Solutions**

## Achieving Energy Assurance-- Bet on a Science, Technology, and Innovation --

**The successful strategy requires a prolific S&T activity targeting all energy sectors to drive innovation and technology-based solutions**
**The successful strategy uses computer technology to drive an aggressive pace—2 decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance**
**The successful strategy employs high dependence on cyber-based control and information systems**
**The successful strategy links the S&T activity with industry to drive energy assurance whether production-, distribution-, or consumption-based solutions into the marketplace**

## Success Model for S&T Focus for EnergyThe Essential Three Parts Are:

**Science and****Technology**

**Modeling and****Computer Systems**

**Cyber Secure****Information**

## The successful strategy uses computer technology to drive an aggressive pace—2 decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance

**10****3**** simulation & computer capability advancement = innovation cycle (3 to 4 years)**
**Provide S&T budget stability suitable to support recursive cycle of innovation**
**10****6**** simulation & computer capability advancement = systems engineering development cycle (8 to 9 years)**
**Provide Demonstration and Deployment budget suitable to support recursive cycle of systems engineering development**

## The successful strategy employs high dependence on cyber-based control and information systems

**Perfectly secure system is not achievable**
**Augment traditional device- and filtering- based protection methods with aggressive use of real-time threat detection**
**Systems have built in capability advancement**
**Learning **
**Knowledge discovery**
**Threat isolation**
**Performance / Speed / Scope**
**Systems have built in capability to capture increased knowledge and understanding**

## Physical Science and Technology Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities

**Science and Technology**

**Modeling and****Computer Systems**

**Cyber Secure****Information**

- Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle

- Energy Storage

- Nanoscience

- Geosciences/Climate

- Bioenergy

- Superconductivity

- Combustion

## Science and Technology Drivers in Key Science Domains 

| Science Domains | Science and Technology Driver |
| --- | --- |
| Accelerator Physics | Optimize a new low-loss cavity design for the ILC |
| Astrophysics | Explosion mechanism of core-collapse supernovae and Type Ia supernovae |
| Biology | Can efficient ethanol production offset the current oil and gasoline crisis? |
| Chemistry | Catalytic transformation of hydrocarbons; clean energy & hydrogen production and storage |
| Climate | Predict future climates based on scenarios of anthropogenic emissions |
| Combustion | Developing cleaner-burning, more efficient devices for combustion. |
| Fusion | Plasma turbulent fluctuations in ITER must be understood and controlled |
| High Energy Physics | Find the Higgs particles thought to be responsible for mass, and find evidence of supersymmetry |
| Nanoscience & Superconductivity | Designing high temperature superconductors, magnetic nanoparticles for ultra high density storage |
| Nuclear Energy | Can all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle be designed virtually? Reactor core, radio-chemical separations reprocessing, fuel rod performance, repository |
| Nuclear Physics | How are we going to describe nuclei whose fundamental properties we cannot measure? |

## Modeling and Computer Systems Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities

**Modeling and****Computer Systems**

**Cyber Secure****Information**

**Science and ****Technology**

- Zoning and Problem Setup

- Parallel Graphics and Display of Results

- Pathforward Engineering

- Simulation Tools

- PetaOps Computers &ExaOps Architectures

- Numerical Mathematics

- 106 Processor Algorithms

## Cyber Secure Information Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities

**Cyber Secure Information**

**Science and****Technology**

**Modeling and****Computer Systems**

- Knowledge Discovery

- Real-Time Algorithms for Learning & Detection

- Simulators

- Data Integrity

- Authentication, Authorization, and Accounting

- Data Analysis

- Graphs, Statistics, and Linear Programming

## Goal of This S&T

**Apply novel S&T investigation simultaneously among **
**Physical R&D in areas (e.g., Transportation, Renewables, or Nuclear Energy), **
**High Performance Computing and Modeling, and **
**Cyber Secure Information**** **
**	****to develop new or accelerate significantly recent technology advances with direct and near term application to Energy Assurance**
**The S&T will treat these three central focuses as a whole versus the traditional independence**
**This approach is novel and will drive towards technology options that have a physical and virtual representation with cyber secure information as an integral element.**

## Energy Assurance Timeline

**Flexibility / Resilience**

**High**

**Low**

**Low**

**High**

**Security / Independence**

**10 years**

**20****years**

**Today**

**2010-2019 – 1****st**** decade****Create Science Base for Sustained, Decade-Long Technology Demonstration and Deployment In All Energy Sectors****Demonstrate Technical Feasibility of Reaching Energy Assurance for US by 2029****1/3-way Based on Early Technology Innovation, Demonstration, and Deployment**** **
**2020-2029 – 2****nd**** decade****Technology Demonstrations and Deployments****Achieve Energy Assurance **

**Energy Assurance****Assessment**