# Presentation: 537377

## WELCOME TO THE NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP

***LOGISTICS***
- Thanks for coming – Sign-up sheet
- Location - Room 707, except 209 on Wednesday morning
- Food
- Refreshments at 8 am and am/pm breaks, thanks to *Lisa Faunce*!
- Lunch brought in – Make selection by morning break
- Tue		Sandwiches
- Wedn		Pizza
- Thurs		Sandwiches
- Dinner Tuesday night – Which place should we go? How many?
- Topolino – Italian buffet ($18 all inclusive), 10 mins, off MD Rt 5 S
- Local fish place ($15-20 per meal off menu), 15 mins, off MD Rt 5 S
- Presentations
- Give to *Mary Hart* asap for uploading onto PC & web
- Plan for 20 min talks – leave 5 mins for questions/discussion
- Announce when you turn the page – help teleconference participants
- Purpose of workshop – Lots of discussions
- Review progress halfway through NOAA THORPEX Grants
- Prepare for transition of successful research into operations (2-way interaction)

## OUTLINE

- Logistics
- THORPEX program
- International
- NOAA
- “Conveyor belt” for transitioning research into operations
- Research grants & other activities
- New NWP paradigm
- NOAA THORPEX Implementation Plan
- Historical overview

## WHAT IS THORPEX?

*10-YEAR WMO-SPONSORED RESEARCH PROGRAM*
- OBJECTIVE:
- Accelerate improvements in skill & utility of 1-14 day high impact weather forecasts
- Weather forecast component of GEOSS
- RESEARCH AREAS:
- Observing System
- Data Assimilation
- Predictability / NWP
- Socioeconomic Applications
- APPROACH:
- Enhanced collaboration on national, regional, & international levels
- Between research and operational communities
- Among experts working on four components of forecast process
- Within operational community – Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
- ORGANIZATION:
- International level – Under WMO; IPO, 6 WGs, etc – Michel Beland & David Burridge
- North America – Regional Committee – Pierre Gauthier & David Parsons
- National level – US Program Office – Rick Rosen & David Parsons
- NOAA – Under Weather & Water Goal, ST&I - Marty Ralph & Zoltan Toth

## NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM

- FOCUS:
- Accelerate improvements in 3-14 day high impact probabilistic weather forecasts
- ORGANIZATION:
- Under Weather & Water Goal, ST&I, with link to EMP & LFW
- NOAA THORPEX Executive Council – Rick Rosen
- NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee – Zoltan Toth
- APPROACH:
- Grants – External community (12 NOAA grants)
- Directed research  - NOAA Labs
- Transition to operations – Global Test Center (JCSDA link), NCEP - NAEFS
- Weather – Climate link
- FUNDING:
- $1.23M (Current); $2.3M (President’s request); $5M (Goal)

## PATH FROM THORPEX RESEARCH TO NOAA OPERATIONS

***BASIC RESEARCH***

***APPLIED RESEARCH***

***TRANSITION TO OPERATIONS***

***NOAA OPERATIONS***

***Answer Science Questions***

***Develop Methods***

***Prepare for Implementation***

***Generate Products***

***External investigators***

***NOAA Laboratories***

***Global Test Center / NCEP***

***NCEP Central Operations***

**PHASE**

**What?**

**Who?**

***NSF, DOD, NASA***

***NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM***

***NOAA NWS***

**Financial Support?**

## NOAA THORPEX RESEARCH GRANTS

- University groups	5
- NCAR 		1
- Private sector	2

**GRANTS DISTRIBUTION**

- NASA		1 (0)
- ONR/NRL 		2
- NOAA		1 (2)

## NOAA THORPEX ACTIVITIES

- RESEARCH PROJECTS:
- Adaptive collection & use of observations (PARC, OSSE)	*Thurs am*
- Ensemble-based data assimilation				*Tue am-pm*
- Representing model errors in ensemble forecasting		*Wedn am*
- High impact modeling (enhanced resol., sea ice / wave, etc)  	*Wedn pm*
- Socioeconomic applications (IPY)				*Thurs pm*
- PATH TO OPERATIONS:
- North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
- MSC–NMSM–NWS multi-center ensemble
- Operational implementation in March/April 2006
- Prototype / component of future international GIFS system
- ESMF connection
***All research must directly connect with NAEFS system***
- PERFORMANCE MEASURE:
- Rate of improvement doubled in ***NAEFS probabilistic forecast scores***
- PQPF
- Extreme temperature
- Severe weather
- Tropical storm

## EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS:

*Why forecast signal is lost beyond 10-day lead time?*
- How can predictability be extended?
- Better/more observations?
- Better data assimilation scheme?
- Better numerical model?
- Better ensemble techniques?

**EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS:**

***ANIMATION***

## EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS:

**EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS:**

- Why forecast signal lost at 9-day lead?
- How can predictability be extended? Better
- Better/more observations?
- Better data assimilation scheme?
- Better numerical model?
- Better ensemble techniques?

***ANIMATION***

## ANIMATION

***ANIMATION***

## NEW THORPEX NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION PARADIGM

**SOCIOECON.**

**NEW THORPEX NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION PARADIGM**

**SYSTEM**

- CLIMATE FORECASTING / CTB

***INTEGRATED**** DATA ASSIMILATION & FORECASTING*

***Days 15-60***

- NWS OPERATIONS

- GLOBAL INTERACTIVE FORECAST SYSTEM (GIFS)

***GLOBAL OPERATIONAL***

***TEST CENTER***

***GLOBAL OPERATIONAL***

***TEST CENTER***

***MODEL ****ERRORS & HIGH IMPACT MODELING*

## NOAA THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

**NOAA THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN**

**NOAA THORPEX Grantee*

**NOAA THORPEX Funding*

## BACKGROUND

## NOAA’S INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX

- 1998-99	Discussions started with involvement of NOAA scientists
- Apr 2000	First International Meeting
- Mar 2002	First Workshop, International Science Steering Committee formed
- Aug 2002	NOAA Tiger Team Meeting
**Oct 2002****	****NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting**
**Nov 2002****	****1****st**** Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan**
- Jan 2003	NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee formed
- Feb 2003	Pacific TOST Experiment
**Jun 2003****	****First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity**
- Sep 2003	25 Full Proposals received
- Oct-Dec 03	Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (ATREC)
**Jun 2004****	****12 NOAA THORPEX proposals funded**
**Jan 2006****	****NOAA THORPEX PI Workshop**

## OUTLINE

- Logistics
- International THORPEX program
- “Conveyor belt” for transitioning research into operations
- NOAA THORPEX program
- Research grants
- NOAA THORPEX activities
- New NWP paradigm
- NOAA THORPEX Implementation Plan
- Historical overview