# Presentation: 497763

## The Community Coordinated Modeling Center:

**The Community Coordinated Modeling Center:**
**Bridging Space Weather Research and Operations**

**NASA Goddard Space Flight Center**

**http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov**

## Welcome to the CCMC!

- _Overview_:
- Organization and implementation
- Models and operational relevance
- V&V activities
- Software infrastructure
- Future

## CCMC Activities

- Evaluate scientific research models to address National Space Weather needs
**Make modern space science models available to the research community**
- Support the development of advanced models
- Focus on models with space weather operations benefits
- Develop prototype real-time systems
- Support space weather education
- Transfer evaluated models to operational National Space Weather Agencies

## Decision Flow

**directs**

**informs**

- Research Community

- Operations Community

**recommendations, **
**needs**

- US National Space Weather Program Council

- US Committee for Space Weather

**Science and Operations**
**Advisory Committees**

**needs**

**requirements**

- at GSFC

- Center

## CCMC Steering Committee

**Members:**
- NASA Headquarters		Dr. Chuck Holmes 	(_Co-Chair_)
- NSF				Dr. Paul Bellaire 		(_Co-Chair_)
- AF/XOW 			Maj. Mark Adair
- AFOSR				Maj. David Byers
- AFRL				Dr. Nick Arge
- NASA/GSFC	 		Dr. Michael Hesse
- NASA Headquarters		Dr. Madhulika Guhathakurta
- NOAA/SEC 			Dr. Terry Onsager
- NSF 				Dr. Bob Robinson
- ONR				Dr. Bob McCoy
- SMC/CI 			Mr. Kevin Scro 		(Facilitator)
- _Technical Advisors:_
- AFIT				Maj. Devin Della-Rose
- AFSPC				Mr. Kelly Hand

## Models: Overview

- MAS

- PFSS

- Helio. Tomog.

- ENLIL

- Exosph. SW

- BATS-R-US

- Open- GGCM

- Fok RC

- CTIP

- SAMI2

- Weimer2K

- WSA

- SWMF

## Solar Models

**Potential Field Source Surface** (Luhmann, UCB) - Global solar magnetic field structure

**MAS** (Linker et al – SAIC) – Global solar magnetic field and plasma structure

- _Operational significance_:
- 	*Now*: 	Solar wind, connection to active regions (solar energetic particles)
- 	*Future*: 	Solar eruptions, CMEs

- P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter

- Density, flows

## Solar/Heliospheric Models

**WSA** (Wang-Sheeley-Arge) – Corona + empirical/kinematic solar wind

- _Operational significance_:
- 		Solar wind forecasting

- P. MacNeice

## Heliospheric Models

**ENLIL** (Odstrcil – NOAA) – Complete, physics-based, heliosphere ( 30*r**s* – 10AU)

**Heliospheric Tomography**
- 	(Jackson,Hick – UCSD)

- _Operational significance_:
- 	*Now*: 	Solar wind forecasts, connection to active regions
- 		(solar energetic particles)
- 	*Future*: 	Solar eruptions, CMEs, higher fidelity forecasts

- P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova, A. Chulaki

## Forecasting : Sun to Earth

- Photospheric
- Synoptic
- magnetograms

- WSA – potential field + equatorial current sheet model (1-21.5*r**s*)

- ENLIL - 3D MHD Heliosphere (21.5*r**s* – 1,2 or 10AU)

**Running in realtime**
- P. MacNeice, L. Rastaetter

## Magnetospheric Models

**Global Magnetohydrodynamic Models** (2 Models, UMichigan and UNH) – plasmas and electromagnetic fields

** **_equatorial plane:_   magnetopause and  geosynchronous orbit

- _Operational significance_:
- 	* * 	S/C charging, S/C orientation,
- 		information transfer solar-wind/ionosphere

- L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova

## Inner Magnetospheric Models

**Ring Current and Radiation Belt Models** (3 Models, GSFC and UMichigan) – high energy particle fluxes (~keV – MeV)

- _Operational significance_:
- 		S/C charging, Single event upsets
- 		Radiation up to MeV energies

- L. Rastaetter, M. Kuznetsova

- 150keV protons

## Ionospheric Models

- _Operational significance_:
- 	 *Now*: 	Ionospheric TEC
- 		Ground magnetic perturbations
- 		Polar cap absorption and radiation
- 	 *Future:**	*Ionospheric Scintillations

- M. Kuznetsova, L. Rastaetter

- NmF2

- ne

## Transition to Operations: V&V and Metrics

- - Science-based validation: Compare model output to 	measurements for select events, detailed analysis
- - Metrics studies: Repeatable comparison between model output 	and measurements, “one number”
**Need to be blind studies, performed by independent agent**

## V&V:  Simulate Polar Cap Size

**open ****FL**

**closed**** FL**

**Boundary between open and closed field lines (FL)**

**open ****FL**

**VIS Earth Camera 15 July 2000 20:20 UT**

**Polar cap boundary **
**observed by POLAR**

## V&V: Simulate Polar Cap Size

- Rastaetter et al., 2005

## V&V/R&D: Radiation Belt Modeling

**Los Alamos **
**National Laboratory  **
**Satellite Data**

- Improved Model

- Original Model

**  ****50 -  75 keV**
**  ****75 - 105 keV**
**105 - 150 keV**

** ****150 - 225 keV**
** ****225 - 315 keV**
** ****315 - 500 keV**

** ****500  - 750 keV**
** ****0.75 - 1.1 MeV**
** ****1.1   - 1.3 MeV**

**flux increase**

**flux decrease/flat**

- A. Chulaki, K. Keller

## Metrics: Ground Magnetic Perturbations

- ground magnetic measurements
- magnetic perturbations from model (10 mho)
- magnetic perturbations from model (5 mho)

- hour

- hour

- Storm day

- Storm day

- Day 2

- Results Averaged Over 10 Stations

- Day 1

- FHB Station

- FHB Station

- (THL SVS UPN GDH STF GHB FHB NAQ NRD SLO)

- ...establish absolute measure of model
- 	performance

- K. Keller, M. Kuznetsova, M. Hesse

## V&V: Solar Wind Prediction

- Period 1

- Time (Days)

- Time (Days)

- Period 2

- Density

- Velocity

- Black: ACE  Measurements        Red: Model           Orange: Mean

- Heliospheric Tomography

- K. Keller, P. MacNeice

## V&V: Executing Models in Real Time 

- V&V: Executing Models in Real Time

|  |
| --- |

- L. Rastaetter

- Executing 24/7 on CCMC
- computing engines

## Support the generation of advanced space science models
Address Space Weather-relevant processes

Collaborate with related activities (CISM, CSEM, ILWS...)

Expand strong service to (international) research community
Execute runs-on-request
Provide ready access to model output with enhanced tools
Includes mission support, e.g., STEREO
Includes campaign support, e.g., IHY

- Address Space Weather-relevant processes
- Collaborate with related activities (CISM, CSEM, ILWS...)
- Expand strong service to (international) research community
- Execute runs-on-request
- Provide ready access to model output with enhanced tools
- Includes mission support, e.g., STEREO
- Includes campaign support, e.g., IHY

- Future Activities: Research Support

## Future Activities: Operations Support

- Provide tool by which science progress at NASA, NSF feeds into Space 	Weather operations
- Focus on science models with operational benefits
- Operator input to identify model needs
- Address immediate payoffs as well as strategic value models (e.g., solar 	forecasting)
- Provide expanded, independent model evaluations
- Obtain metrics, V&V procedures from operators
- Support GAIM V&V
- Perform priority evaluations for operations
- Provide rapid response service in emergencies
- Other opportunities for closer collaborations/tailored support
- Education: Coordination initiated with AFIT, USAFA
- Interacting with AFWA (LtCol. Cade, Maj. Nobis)
- Implementation: Installation design and support possible
- Tool development following operator needs
- _CCMC ready to explore new ways to  support_