# Presentation: 007168

## Utilizing the IFPS/GFE to Make 

**Utilizing the IFPS/GFE to Make **
**Coastal Waters Forecasts: Wind, Temperature, **
**and Dewpoint at the Tallahassee NWS WFO**

**T.J. Turnage, A.I. Watson, and Brandon Bolinski**** **
**NWS Tallahassee, FL**

## Marine Implementation via IFPS

**Marine Implementation via IFPS**

**Significant Wave Height **
**Weather **
**Wind Speed & Direction **
**Wind Gust**** ****	****	****	****	**

**Near Future**
**Temperature ****	**
**Dewpoint ****	**
**Max/Min Temperature ****	**
**QPF ****	**
**Sky Cover ****	**
**POP ****	**
**Snow Amount **
**Visibility ****	**
**Swell Height and Direction**
**Ice Coverage **

## Coastal Waters Temperatures

**Coastal Waters Temperatures**
**•  ****They are important – Not an afterthought**
**•  ****Could be used by:**
**	****Sportsmen**
**	****Commercial fishermen**
**	****Any offshore activities**
**•  ****Could be used by SmartTools to predict sea fog and **
**	****coastal fog and stratus. **

## Coastal Waters Temperatures

**Coastal Waters Temperatures**
**•  ****Air temperatures over water – new weather element**
**•  ****Forecasters not familiar with this.**
**•  ****Training must be done to introduce forecasters. **
**•  ****Start with climatologies**
**	****Data readily available from NDBC **
**	****Data goes back many years at some buoys**

## WFO Coastal Waters Forecast Areas

**WFO Coastal Waters Forecast Areas**

## Summer in the Gulf

**Summer in the Gulf**

**Simple Statistics!**

**Climatologies**

## Winter in the Gulf

**Winter in the Gulf**

**Climatologies**

## Slide 8

## Tallahassee Surface Observation vs. Buoy 42039

**Tallahassee Surface Observation vs. Buoy 42039**

**Winters 2001-2002:**

**KTLH**
**Avg Max Temp = 65.8****o**** F**
**Avg Min Temp = 40.8****o**** F**
**42039**
**Avg Max Temp = 66.6****o**** F**
**Avg Min Temp = 61.0****o**** F**

**Avg Max ********T = +0.8****o**** F**
**Avg Min ********T = +20.2****o**** F**** **

**W****hen KTLH Min Temp < 30****o**** F**
**Avg Min ********T = +27.9****o**** F**
**When KAAF Min Temp < 35****o**** F**
**Avg Min ********T = +21.6****o F**** **

## What has happened and what is happening now?

**What has happened and what is happening now?**
**Buoys!**

**How do you predict offshore air temperatures**

**Know climatology**

## Buoy Time Series

**Buoy Time Series**

**National Data Buoy Center time series (4 days)**

## MesoEta

**MesoEta**
**Surface Temp**

**MesoEta does a good job out to 60 hrs.**

## Comments:

**Comments:**
**Don’t use GFS!**
**MOS is being developed for Buoys, but no **
**	****temperature/dewpoint as yet**
**Sea Surface Temperatures normally 2****o**** F warmer...**
**	****but can lag 10-20****o F with strong cold fronts**

## Coastal Waters Temperatures

**Coastal Waters Temperatures**
**Verification**
**Procedure:**
**Log air temperatures at the 2 buoy sites in our coastal waters forecast area.**
**Do this for 1****st****, 2****nd**** 3****rd****, and 4****th**** period.**
**Verify with buoy data**
**Examine ********Ts & RMSE**

**Period**
**4-25 January 2003**
**22 February – 17 March 2003**
**In 2004 for 42039**
**15 January – 29 February**

## Slide 15

## WFO Coastal Waters Forecast Areas

**WFO Coastal Waters Forecast Areas**

## Expectations:

**Expectations:**
**Negative ********Ts: Underforecasting (Obs > Forecast)**
**Positive ********Ts:  Overforecasting (Obs < Forecast)**
**Negative ********Ts at night:**
**	****Forecasting land temps over water?**
**Positive ********Ts during the day:**
**	****Forecasting land temps over water?**

## Results:  Maximum Temperatures

**Results:  Maximum Temperatures**
**                                        ****2003**

**Positive ********Ts:  Overforecasting (Obs < Forecast)**
**Or forecasting land temperatures over water.**

**TAE ****            42039****	****               42036**
**                 ********T  RMSE         ********T  RMSE**
**Period1    ****±****0.0  3.3             -0.1   3.0**
**Period2    -0.4   4.0             -0.5   3.7**
**Period3    ****±****0.0  4.4             -0.2   3.7**
**Period4    +0.1  4.5             +0.1  4.2**

## Results:  Maximum Temperatures

**Results:  Maximum Temperatures**
**                   ****          ****2003                2004**

**Positive ********Ts:  Overforecasting (Obs < Forecast)**
**Or forecasting land temperatures over water.**

**TAE ****            42039****	****               42039**
**                 ********T  RMSE         ********T  RMSE**
**Period1    ****±****0.0  3.3            +0.8   3.1**
**Period2    -0.4   4.0             +1.5   3.9**
**Period3    ****±****0.0  4.4             +0.8   3.4**
**Period4    +0.1  4.5             +2.1  5.3**

## Results:  Minimum Temperatures

**Results:  Minimum Temperatures**
**                                       ****2003**

**Negative ********Ts: Underforecasting (Obs > Forecast) **
**The influence of land temperatures is great!**

**TAE ****           42039****	****              42036**
**                ********T  RMSE          ********T  RMSE**
**Period1    -1.0  3.9              -1.4  3.8**
**Period2    -2.2  6.6              -2.8  7.8**
**Period3    -2.6  5.5              -2.6  5.6**
**Period4    -2.1  6.0              -1.9  5.6**

## Results:  Minimum Temperatures

**Results:  Minimum Temperatures**
**                            ****2003               2004**

**Negative ********Ts: Underforecasting (Obs > Forecast) **
**The influence of land temperatures is great!**

**TAE ****           42039****	****              42039**
**                ********T  RMSE          ********T  RMSE**
**Period1    -1.0  3.9             +1.4  3.3**
**Period2    -2.2  6.6             +0.7  4.1**
**Period3    -2.6  5.5             +0.3  4.1**
**Period4    -2.1  6.0             +0.1  4.1**

## Final Thoughts...

**Final Thoughts...**

**Significant Challenges remain with new **
**Weather Elements coming online soon, e.g.,**
**	****Visibility**
**	****Swell Height and Direction**
**Significant Challenges continue with our flagship **
**marine products – wave heights and winds**
**IFPS in general – The challenge to NWS WFOs is to **
**provide the public significantly improved products **
**over model data **

## Slide 23

## Slide 24

## Use of Lightning Climatologies in GFE

**Use of Lightning Climatologies in GFE**

**May through September**

**Lightning Flash Density**

**850 mb Mean Height Field**

## Use of Lightning Climatologies in GFE

- Figure 6.  By means of a procedure in the Edit Actions Dialog Box, lightning
- data are converted into a QPF forecast

- .

- Spatial Editor

- Grid

- Manager

**Use of Lightning Climatologies in GFE**

**The Problem**
**Conversion of 5x5km lightning **
**grids to netCDF files cause a **
**rotation error in GFE grids.**
**  **** **

**The Solution??**
**Convert raw lightning files **
**(one flash per line) into netCDF **
**Very large reprocessing effort:**
**Reorganize 15 years of data into **
**regimes and reprocess Gbytes of **
**data.**
** **
**Are there other solutions?**

## Use of Lightning Climatologies in GFE

**Breaking News!!!**

** ****Solution??**
**On the left is a quick fix.**
**14 years of 6-hr flash counts**
**for 18-00 UTC in Calm Flow **
**Regime.   **
**Use of SmartTools and **
**Smart Initialization**