# Presentation: 585588

## Planning for Discoveriesin Particle Physics

**Michael Witherell**
**EPP2010**
**May 16, 2005**

## This is a special time in particle physics.				J. Lykken, EPP2010,11/30/2004 

- urgency:
- connections:
- tools:

- 	provocative discoveries lead to urgent questions
- 	questions appear to be related in fundamental but mysterious ways → big ideas are in play
- 	we have the experimental tools, technologies and strategies needed to tackle these questions

- conclusion:
- we are seeing a scientific revolution in the making

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Particle Physics

- Major themes:
- the quantum vacuum
- the particle zoo
- unification
- the origin of space and  time

- Major research areas:
- collider physics
- neutrino physics
- particle astrophysics
- quark physics
- accelerator R&D
- detector R&D
- theoretical physics

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Particle Physics

- Major themes:
- the quantum vacuum
- the particle zoo
- unification
- the origin of space and  time

- Major research areas:
- collider physics
- neutrino physics
- particle astrophysics
- quark physics
- accelerator R&D
- detector R&D
- theoretical physics

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Opportunities for revolutionary discoveries 

- The biggest questions -- quantum vacuum, Higgs, supersymmetry, extra dimensions --  will be addressed with the flagship colliders:
- Large Hadron Collider
- International Linear Collider
- Some landmark discoveries can’t be made at colliders:
- Neutrino masses, mass hierarchy, CP violation
- New physics first appearing in quark decays
- Detection of dark matter
- Measuring the effects of dark energy

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Planning U.S. particle physics within budget constraints

- In planning our field, especially with tight budgets, we need to optimize carefully
- the currently operating program
- the operating program 5 -10 years from now
- developing the facilities needed 10 -20 years from now
- The currently operating program in the U.S. is outstanding science for the investment.
- The medium-term future and the long-term future are at risk.
- The science opportunities are great.
- We know what experimental facilties are needed.
- But the only part of the U.S. future on stable ground is the LHC.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Colliders at the Energy Frontier

- _World Program of Particle Physics_
**Tevatron**
**Large Hadron Collider**
**International Linear Collider**

- _U.S. program_
- Operating the Tevatron program and producing great physics
- Building the ATLAS and CMS detectors and US-LHC accelerator components, doing LHC research
- R&D and conceptual design

- The Tevatron keeps particle physics at the energy
- frontier until the LHC physics program takes over.
- The ILC is the facility needed beyond the LHC.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## The special role of the LHC physics program

- Revolutionary discoveries about particle physics are sure to come from the Large Hadron Collider.
- Experimental results on dark matter, CP violation, and everything else will take on new significance when viewed in the light of what is seen or not seen at the LHC.
- A large luminosity upgrade to the LHC is very important, and it will be challenging.
- Superconducting quadrupole magnets of new technology
- New detector systems to operate successfully at higher luminosity

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## The U.S. role at the LHC

- U.S. research groups bring unique experience to the LHC program.
- operating the Tevatron, CDF, and DZero
- building high-gradient, superconducting quadrupoles
- reconstructing and analyzing the data from the Tevatron program
- It is very important that U.S. scientists are able to take full advantage of the LHC research program.
- For accelerator physicists, this means support for the LHC Accelerator Research Program (LARP).
- For groups working on CMS and ATLAS, this means support for the CMS and ATLAS research programs and for the research groups at universities and laboratories.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## The International Linear Collider

- The world community of particle physicists has identified two flagship facilities that are needed to study and understand the mysteries of the TeV energy scale:
- The Large Hadron Collider

- It has been clear for some years that the ILC will require a new model of international planning, funding, and management.
- visas and lab access
- The ILC will take strong support from Europe, Asia, and North America.
- In addition, one country or region must make a special investment as the host of the ILC.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

##  The U.S. role in the ILC

- The world of particle physics is in a transition from five large laboratories operating the largest accelerators for particle physics to two, if the ILC is built.
- For the U.S. to remain one of the leaders in worldwide particle physics, it will have to take on the host role for the ILC.
- Why should we do so, if the field is so international?
- Accelerator physics and technology has contributed greatly to current state of light sources, neutron sources,  and medical diagnosis and treatment. The U.S. needs to stay at the forefront.
- The international compact for open use of particle physics facilities depends on the sharing of the responsibility for building these facilities, averaged over time.
- The host country does have a special role. The great discoveries coming at the LHC will highlight the leadership Europe is showing in physical sciences.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Neutrino Physics

- _World Program_
- Present program
- long-baseline experiments
- solar, atmospheric, and reactor neutrino experiments
- Future program
- long baseline (+ perhaps short baseline) @ Fermilab
- medium baseline @ J-PARC
- More intense proton sources
- neutrinoless double-decay
- reactor experiment

- _U.S. program_
- Present program
- MiniBooNE and MINOS
- Participation in SNO, Kamland,... abroad
- Future program
- NOA and other expts. @ Fermilab
- R&D on proton driver
- Double-decay experiment
- Reactor neutrino experiment in U.S. or abroad

- Neutrino physics requires a distributed effort with very different types of experiments using different neutrino sources.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## World neutrino program

- We need to
- improve the measurements of known mixing parameters
- clarify the possibility of a short-baseline oscillation,
- measure the third mixing angle,
- understand the mass hierarchy and determine whether CP violation is in the measurable range,
- determine the mass scale for neutrinos, and
- measure several cross sections better.
- Each step takes at least one dedicated experiment.
- This is not like collider physics. The neutrino program must be distributed worldwide with several experiments of very different types.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## The U.S. role in neutrino physics

- The U.S. should take a lead role for some of the critical experiments needed in the distributed program of neutrino physics.
- The U.S. will have a unique role as home of the long-baseline accelerator neutrino facility.
- To take full advantage of this will require a new experiment and a proton driver.
- U.S. physicists will participate in
- a reactor neutrino experiment &
- a double beta decay experiment.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Particle Astrophysics

- _World program_
- direct dark matter searches
- dark matter production at colliders
- sky surveys to measure dark matter and energy
- cosmic ray, gamma-ray, and neutrino observatories

- _U.S. program_
- CDMS-II now,                             Super-CDMS, Xenon in the future
- Tevatron and U.S. part of LHC program
- SDSS now,                                DES, LSST, JDEM in  the future
- Auger Cosmic Ray Observatory, GLAST for s,  Ice Cube for s

- The science at the interface of particle physics and cosmology requires several approaches, each of which gathers very different experimental information.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Quark Flavor Physics

- _World Program_
- Present program
- 2 B-factories and 2 charm factories
- Tevatron program
- Future program
- LHC experiments
- possible K programs at J-PARC, BNL, CERN
- possible Super B-Factory at KEK

- _U.S. Program_
- Present program
- PEP-II B-factory @ SLAC
- Tevatron program @ Fermilab
- CLEO-C @ Cornell
- Future program
- possible KOPIO at BNL
- Little other experimental emphasis in U.S.

- U.S. has a leading role in quark flavor physics, with Japan, but is planning to ramp this down as a priority decision within expected budgets.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Major components of the U.S. program today

- Quantum vacuum, Higgs, supersymmetry, extra dimensions
- The Tevatron program: CDF and DZero
- The LHC program in final stage of construction
- The ILC: R&D, advancing toward a conceptual design
- Quarks and Leptons
- The neutrino program:
- at accelerators: MiniBooNE and MINOS
- underground: SNO and Kamland
- Quark flavor physics
- BaBar, CDF and DZero
- Particle Astrophysics
- Observing the cosmos: sky surveys
- Detecting dark matter in the laboratory
- Cosmic ray, gamma ray, neutrino observatories

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Major components (definite & proposed) of  the U.S. program in 2011-2019

- Quantum vacuum, Higgs, supersymmetry, extra dimensions
- The LHC program: ATLAS and CMS, LARP, with _upgrades_
- The _ILC_
- Quarks and Leptons
- Neutrinos and other leptons:
- MINOS, _NO___, & smaller experiments, _Proton Driver_
- _Reactor neutrino_ and _double beta decay _experiments
- muon to electron conversion_ MECO_
- R&D on factories
- Quark flavor physics
- B physics at ATLAS and CMS
- K physics with_ KOPIO_
- Particle Astrophysics
- _Sky survey(s) to measure dark energy_
- New, larger experiment(s) to study_ dark matter in the lab_
- Cosmic ray observatories: Auger, Ice-Cube, Veritas, and follow-ups
- Unification
- _Proton Decay experiment_
- _(Underlined: projects under consideration)_

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Maintaining expertise and infrastructure

- The field of particle physics has benefited greatly from building on existing reservoirs of expertise and infrastructure at the laboratories.
- The operating role of laboratories is changing.
- Fermilab, SLAC, BNL, Cornell operated accelerators primarily for particle physics in 2000. By 2010 only Fermilab will do so. (BNL for nuclear physics with some particle physics, SLAC & Cornell for light sources)
- We must maintain accelerator expertise and infrastructure in the laboratories if we are to maintain the ability to pursue particle physics in the future.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## OHEP budget history

- The expected funding level dropped by ~$100-150M/yr over 4 years.
- Operation of newly built or upgraded facilities was given priority.
- No projects funded
- Various midsize projects ($50-$500 M) are coming up for approval.
- Each one represents ~1-10% of host country investment in ILC.
- How do we balance these?

- HEP Budget, FY 2005$M, 4%/yr

- EPP2010 Witherell

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## The Strategy

- The highest priority for a new project is the ILC.
- The road to the ILC has off-ramps.
- The critical approvals must come from the highest levels of several governments. The commitment of the particle physics community is not enough.
- At each stage of committing increased resources to ILC, we need to review the scope of the rest of the particle physics program in the U.S.
- We need a decision on ILC in the U.S. by the end of the decade.
- We need to maintain strong programs in other select areas – LHC, neutrinos, particle astrophysics – matched to funding.
- We will pursue the neutrino path faster if ILC is delayed.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## DOE OHEP Budget model (NSF, NASA also play critical roles.) 

- This budget model represents **optimum ILC ramp-up**.
- ILC up to $140 M in 2010
- 40%/yr to $80 M in 2009
- $350 M 2006-10
- Other increases
- $325 M for new neutrino facilities  in 2006-10
- astrophysics doubling from $40M/yr to $85 M/yr
- LHC from $60 M to $85 M
- Steady support
- Research support increases at 4%/yr
- Programs ending
- B-factory in FY 2008
- Tevatron in FY 2009

- Blue line represents total funding:
- $736 M in FY 2005
- $725 M in FY 2006
- 4%/yr increase after FY 2006 for inflation

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## DOE OHEP Budget model (NSF, NASA also play critical roles.) 

- This budget model represents **moderate ILC ramp-up **&  **more aggressive neutrino program.**
- ILC up to $70 M in 2010
- 1.5 year slower
- $230 M 2006-10
- $450 M for new neutrino facilities  in 2006-10
- Other increases
- astrophysics doubling from $40M/yr to $85 M/yr
- LHC from $60 M to $85 M
- Steady support
- Research support increases at 4%/yr
- Programs ending
- B-factory in FY 2008
- Tevatron in FY 2009

- There are many other options.
- More increases around 2010 for astrophysics,  flavor physics, or...
- 2% instead of 4% on total funding

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Strategic decisions

- 2007
- 2010

- Is ILC cost compatible with possible U.S. funding?
- If so, press toward construction start
- If not, is more R&D called for?
- keep investing in midterm program
- Which of the major neutrino experiments in the U.S.?
- Which major particle astrophysics projects in the U.S.?
- Are we approaching an ILC construction start?
- Has U.S. funding been ramping up?
- Have the preproject milestones been met?
- What is the nature of the new physics at the LHC?
- How is the neutrino story evolving?
- How does the neutrino roadmap change?
- What are the funding  and approval prospects?

- Strategic decisions must be made in a timely way, with good scientific and technical information, reliable project schedules, and realistic assumptions about expected funding profiles.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05

## Summary

- We are at the start of a revolutionary period in particle physics.
- The U.S. role in this revolution will depend on the funding level that will be available.
- The biggest question is whether the U.S. will assume the host role for the ILC.
- If the U.S. does not assume this role, it can still have a program that provides excellent science for the dollar, but it will not lead the world in particle physics.
- There needs to be a definite, public schedule for making decisions about the ILC.

- EPP2010 Witherell

- 5/16/05