# Presentation: 400202

## Climate Decision Supportand Services

**Readiness and Programs**
**Research**
**Plans**

**Notes:**
Current state of climate affairs at regional level.

## Decision Support and ServicesNOAA Capabilities

** **

**Research**

**Operations**

**Observations**

**Outreach**

**Requirements**

**Impacts Applications **
**Research**

**Services**

**Notes:**
Current state of climate affairs at regional level.

## Decision Support and ServicesNOAA’s Existing Regional Infrastructure

** **
**R****egional**** ****C****limate**** ****C****enters**** ****(NOAA Supported)**
*	***RCC Program developed to meet local and regional need for***** ***
***preparation & distribution of climate data ***
***applied research & research-based information ***
***monitoring & assessing climate conditions and impacts***
**R****egional**** ****I****ntegrated**** ****S****ciences**** ****and**** ****A****ssessments**
**	****RISA Program developed to**
***improve interactions with stakeholders to determine climate service needs***
***increase utility of climate information for decision makers***
***advance science and provide feedback into research***
***develop, field test, and refine new products***
***link research with planning and operations***
**Regional Climate Prediction Services Pilots**
***Western Region ***
***Pacific ENSO Applications Center***

**Notes:**
Current state of climate affairs at regional level.

## Decision Support and Services

**Western RCC **
**Desert Research**
**Institute**

**NOAA and NOAA-Supported Centers Delivering Climate Services**

**RISA – Pacific Northwest**

**RISA – California**

**RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS**

**High Plains RCC **
**University of Nebraska**

**Midwestern RCC **
**Illinois State Water Survey**

**International**
**Research Institute**

**Northeast RCC **
**Cornell University**

**Climate Prediction**
**Center, Climate **
**Services Division**

**National Climatic**
**Data Center**

**Southeast RCC **
**S.C. Dept. of Natural**
**Resources**

**RISA – Florida**

**Southern RCC **
**Louisiana State**
**University**

- National Center

- Regional Center

- RISA’s

- States Participating
- In Two Regions

**RISA – Western Water**

**Climate Diagnostic **
**Center**

**Decision Support and Services**

**Western Region HQ**

**Pacific ENSO**
**Applications**
**Center**

**Notes:**
There are many holes in this map that can be filled by leveraging existing infrastructure with new funds.

Leverage these entities in addition to State Climatologists in future

## Decision Support and ServicesPrograms

**Decision Support and Services****Programs**

- FY04

**Notes:**
RDSS part of a larger plan for DSS

## Decision Support and Services

**Climate and Societal Interactions (CSI)**
***stimulates and supports innovative research on climate-human interactions***
***develops prototype implementation of decision support tools***
**Programs**
**Human Dimensions of Change Program**
**Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program**
**Environment, Science & Development (Science and Technology Transfer)**

**Research**

**Notes:**

CSI Objectives
Identification of information requirements of decision makers, and establishment of productive science-practitioner partnerships 
Integration of high quality physical, natural and social sciences in support of problem-oriented, solution-driven research, and decision support
Provision of input and substantive feedback to the climate and global change research programs, including information that is essential to the enhancing the fundamental science efforts (including process studies, modeling, observations and monitoring)
Exploration, prototyping, and evaluation of science-based methods and institutional mechanisms for creating effective bridges between science and decision making.

The Economics and Human Dimensions program aims to improve our understanding of how social and economic systems are currently influenced by fluctuations in short-term climate (seasons to years), and how human behavior can be (or why it may not be) affected based on information about variability in the climate system. By illuminating institutional, economic, and cultural behavior, social science research on climate-human interactions plays a critical role in determining how humans currently prepare for and respond to climate variability and how analysis of these interactions could improve human welfare. The emphasis on shorter time scales allows the program to pursue the affinity between these time scales and the time horizon on which many climate-sensitive decisions are made. Moreover, lessons learned from analyzing how humans currently adjust to climate may have important implications for longer-term adaptation in the face of climate change.  

## Decision Support and Services  

**Decision Support and Services  **

**Human Dimensions of Change: *****Climate Variability and Health***
- Kenya 1997-98: Severe El Niño-related Flooding –
- Rift Valley Fever Outbreak

**Vaccination**
**targets**

***Rift Valley Fever***
***transmission cycle***

**Notes:**
Rift Valley Fever (RVF) Kenya: Background
-1997-98 Severe El Nino-related flooding correlates with RVF Outbreak
- hundreds of human deaths and illness
- thousands of livestock lost 
- severe downstream economic, trade and food security impacts
mosquito-borne disease, vaccine available for livestock

Integrated Research Program focuses on identifying  health question, requires integrated teams, supports long-term dialogue for service delivery
Cutting edge integrated model developed
Predictive capacity being validated
Now  being	 enthusiastically adopted for use by other agencies for plague and other issues of Homeland Security

## Decision Support and Services

**Mission**
**To assess the impact of climate variability on human and natural systems**
**To improve the ability of stakeholders to anticipate and respond to climate variability and change in a multi-stress context**
**Lower risk**
**Increase opportunity**
**Ensure sustainability**
**To educate a new generation of interdisciplinary scientists**

**Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments**

*Funded by, and in partnership*
*with **NOAA**, NASA, NSF, EPA, *
*and other agencies*

**Notes:**
PEAC, WR (at regional headquarters) already

## Decision Support and Services

**RISA Success Stories**

***Western Water***
**increase the relevance and value of scientific information in order to improve decision-making strategies***** ***

**Notes:**
Background
Habitat Building Flows
One goal of the RIP is to have habitat building flows in more years by augmenting the flow
(dashed blue) with water from large reservoirs. Efforts to augment flows are dependent on:
1) reservoir managers must be confident in water supply and demand forecasts to justify
decisions to release water prior to the high demands period, and still meet contracts to
supply water,
2) forecasting the peak to time releases to ensure raising the flows above the threshold.
Critical questions for deciding whether to attempt to augment peak flows are: How much
water is stored in the snowpack? How quickly it will melt, how much runoff is produced?
When will the peak flow occur? And what will subsequent warm season water demands be?
Summary of Findings
We have collected information on planning processes and operational issues for the Upper
Colorado River Basin reservoirs in a series of interviews and workshops. Our decision
calendar (Fig. 3) illustrates how planning processes and operational issues relate to the
potential use of various types and timings of climate and weather forecasts.
In the Upper Colorado River basin, user studies have focused on the potential use of climate information to improve annual reservoir operating plans. In contrast to the frequently used sector focus, this project uses a problem-oriented approach to identify issues that are sensitive to climate variability, and to examine the decision processes that are associated with these issues (see figure-above). Reservoir managers in the Interior West are currently faced with providing water for new uses (e.g., in-stream flows, recreation) while still meeting the needs of traditional rights holders and uses (irrigation, hydropower). Several legal mandates could require changes in water distribution unless another way is found to meet an increasing number of multiple uses. Better use of climate information represents one tool that may enable reservoir managers to meet these new uses while minimizing conflicts.Three main early insights emerged from this work. 
First, it is important to understand the focus of attention of the water managers (i.e., the issues currently of concern to them), and to provide both forecasts and information (e.g. historical analyses, research results) that are relevant to these issues or management problems. These current management issues can be a window of opportunity in which managers may be willing to learn about and try new tools, such as climate outlooks.
Second, the needs of water managers and water users for climate information can be organized in terms of a calendar of the annual cycle of their decisions, in this case, reservoir operations (Ray, et al. 2000). This calendar identifies the times when key decisions must be made. In the experimental implementation of climate services, such a calendar can help determine what information and outlooks are needed by different kinds of users, and when it is needed. 
Third, it is best to work as partners with users, not just viewing them as an endpoint in a linear process. 
Joint integrated hydrological monitoring and diagnosis
We are collaborating with water managers in the Upper Colorado River system to develop and sustain near real-time monitoring of snowpack, stream flow, weather, and their statistics in the Interior West. Check out the following links to see preliminary examples of such efforts for the Yampa.
Seven and ten-day temperature forecasts for the Yampa River Basin region._x000b_
Day-by-day monitoring and diagnostics of the surface hydroclimatic variations in the Yampa River Basin including Yampa River streamflow and snow water equivalent at Rabbit Ears Pass. 
We are currently expanding and refining such efforts based on the emerging synthesis (from user interactions) on decision processes and calendars for consumptive and non-consumptive water usage in our study region.Experimental hydrologic prediction system
We are collaborating with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center to provide experimental short-term streamflow forecasts for basins in the Upper Colorado River in Spring 2003. Stay tuned for experimental forecasts.     Center for Science and Technology Policy Research  This Page was last updated Jun 26, 2002     

## Decision Support and Services

**RISA Success Stories**
***CLIMAS – Arizona***

**Southwest Climate in a Nutshell: A Tool for Ranchers**

**Notes:**
PEAC, WR (at regional headquarters) already

## Decision Support and Services

**RISA Services**
***snow water equivalency prediction***

**Notes:**
PEAC, WR (at regional headquarters) already

## Decision Support and Services 

**Decision Support and Services **

- Human
- Dimensions

- Regional, National, and
- International Studies

- Applications for Decision Makers

- Model Development

- RISA
- Programs

- NOAA Model-Based
- Scenarios

**Notes:**
RAWS, SNOTEL data integration
Network:  Alpine Network (WRCC)
CPC working with CDC, and also through CSD/WRHQ
For certain kinds of products, CPC will be working will all kinds of representatives e.g. drought monitor to reflect regional conditions in the national products

## Building the Bridge
 Westcore – Research, Prototype Transitional 			     Testbed, and Operations for 			                Western Region for DSS
Builds on existing partnerships (RISA’s, CDC, WRCC) and develops new ones (WRHQ, Extension)
Project management for transition of western regional products
Tailor long-lead forecasts to address western regional issues
Channel regional climate information into useful products
Observing system integration and quality control

** ****Westcore** – **Research, Prototype Transitional ****	****	****	****     Testbed, and Operations for ****	****	****	****                Western Region for DSS**
**Builds on existing partnerships (RISA’s, CDC, WRCC) and develops new ones (WRHQ, Extension)**
**Project management for transition of western regional products**
**Tailor long-lead forecasts to address western regional issues**
**Channel regional climate information into useful products**
**Observing system integration and quality control**

**Decision Support and Services ****Future Vision**

**Notes:**
RAWS, SNOTEL data integration
Network:  Alpine Network (WRCC)
CPC working with CDC, and also through CSD/WRHQ
For certain kinds of products, CPC will be working will all kinds of representatives e.g. drought monitor to reflect regional conditions in the national products

## Decision Support and Services Future Vision

**RISA’s, **
**ETL,**
**FSL**

**CDC**
- Climate
- Diagnostics
- Center

**WRHQ**
- Western Region
- Headquarters

**SC, WFO’s, **
**RFC’s, **
**Extensions**

**WRCC**
- Western Regional
- Climate Center

**NCDC**

**CSD**

**CPC**

- Transition/Operations

- Research

- Research/Transition

- Operations

**Decision Support and Services ****Future Vision**

**Notes:**
WESTCORE Duties:
Transition
Objectives
to support transition from research to operations

Tasks
design, develop, and test new climate-related products for local, state, and regional interests
support and conduct research addressing regional climate-related science and policy issues
coordinate activities with climate centers (RISA’s, RCC’s, SC’s, NWS offices, etc.)
product evaluation

Data integration
Organizing activities between research and operational centers
Providing guidance and other support for regional monitoring networks
Field-testing products

## Decision Support and Services Future Vision

**Fill science gaps in:**
**Monitoring, understanding and modeling, for example:**
**Local-to regional scale climate variability in topographically complex terrain**
**Climate-snow-hydrology linkages**
**Key aspects of coupled human-natural systems (e.g. climate and land use dynamics)**
**Using climate information in the context of multiple stressors (e.g. ecosystems, economic trends, health)**
**Integrated decision-support methods (physical science, economics, institutional analysis, cultural factors, law, conflict resolution, sociology, etc.)**

**Decision Support and Services** **Future Vision**

## Decision Support and ServicesFuture Vision

**Operations/Outreach**
**Climate Prediction Services**
**Build climate services competencies at local offices **
**Establish climate services programs at all regional headquarters**
**Regional Climate Centers (RCC’s)**
**Position RCC’s in NOAA’s budget**
**Increase RCC funding for data ingestion, quality control, and dissemination**
**Proposal-driven policy for climate-related projects**
**Climate Extension Services (education and outreach)**
**University Departments and State Climatologist Offices**

**Notes:**
PEAC, WR (at regional headquarters) already

## Decision Support and ServicesPerformance Measures

**Maintain scientific integrity while gaining a better understanding of environmental-societal interactions**
**Establish direct feedback channels from decision makers on their requirements for climate services**
**Identify pathways for transitions to sustainable operations**
**Nation-wide capacity to provide operational, customer-driven climate services**

**Notes:**
PEAC, WR (at regional headquarters) already