# Presentation: 783295

## ACS Multi-Year Estimates: Impact on State and Federal Programs

- Warren Brown
- 	Cornell University
- Robert Scardamalia
- 	New York State Dept of Economic Development

**Multiyear Estimates Study Research Meeting**
- November 15, 2007

- Empire State Development

## Re-Engineered Census

**Re-Engineered Census**

- 2010 Decennial Census

- American Community Survey

- Population Estimates

- Empire State Development

**Notes:**
ACS and the Re-Engineered Census
ACS estimates for almost 2,300 Census Tracts based on 5 years of data in the test areas. 

## Objective of Project

- Guidelines for state legislatures and executive agencies who currently use decennial census “long form” data

- Empire State Development

## Statistical Policy Working Paper #1 Report on Statistics for Allocation of Federal Funds

- Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology – OMB
- “impact of errors in the data on the actual allocation of funds”
- “provisions be made for an active, continuous interface between legislative program drafters and the statistical community”

- Empire State Development

**Notes:**
“Statistical Policy Working Paper 1 – Report on Statistics for the Allocation of Funds,” prepared by the Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology, Subcommittee on Statistics for Allocation of Funds, issued March 1978.

## Federal Statistics used to assess:

- Need
- Capability
- Effort

- Empire State Development

**Notes:**
FCSM WP#1 focuses on how Federal statistics are used to assess:
Need
Capability
Effort

Numerous examples of federal data programs that grew out of need specified in legislation.
General Revenue Sharing Program gave rise to small area population and income estimates.
Title 1 Elementary and Secondary Education Act and the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates.

## New York State Empire Zones

- Need: Areas of high unemployment and low income
- Program: Tax breaks for employers locating in zone
- Use Census data for Census Tracts

- Empire State Development

**Notes:**
Case Study – Empire Zones Program in New York State
Describe program and use of decennial census data

## Empire Zones Eligibility Thresholds

- Population Size:  2,000
- Poverty: 20%
- Unemployment:  125% of State 8.867 in 2000
- Non-Metropolitan Areas
- Public Assistance: 14% of households

- Empire State Development

**Notes:**
New York State Empire Zone Program
Eligibility Requirements for Section 958a:
Total Population Greater than or Equal to 2,000, AND
Poverty Rate Greater than or Equal to 20.0 percent, AND
Unemployment Rate Greater than or equal to 8.867 (125% of State rate)
Section 958d (Non-Metropolitan Areas)
Percent of Households Receiving Public Assistance Greater than or Equal to 14.0 Percent.

## Rockland County Empire Zone

- Empire State Development

## Rockland County Eligibility Test

*Rockland County Eligibility Test*

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## Changes to Data Sources

|  | Long Form | ACS |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Source: | Sample Survey | Sample Survey |
| Reference Period: | April 1, 2000 | 60 months of returns |
| Frequency: | Once a decade | Annual |
| Sampling Error: | Ignored | Clearly Presented |

- Empire State Development

**Notes:**
ACS Compared with Census Long Form
Census
Point estimates from sample survey
Estimate for specific date (April 1)
Frequency – once a decade
Sampling Error – ignored
ACS
Point estimates from sample survey
Estimate from sample collected over 1, 3, or 5 years
Frequency – annual release of single and multi-year estimates
Sampling Error – well publicized

## Eligibility Thresholds

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## Slide 12

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## Slide 13

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## Slide 14

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## “minimize the effects of data errors” 

- Dampen fluctuations by using moving average
- CETA and WIA
- Hold harmless provisions
- CDBG

- Empire State Development

**Notes:**
How States Need to Craft Legislation and Agency Programs
Ways to (in the words of the FCSM WP #1) “minimize the effects of data errors.”
Dampen fluctuations by using moving average, such as used in the old CETA (Comprehensive Employment and Training Act) and recommended for the current WIA (Workforce Investment Act).
Hold harmless clause, such as the CDBG (Community Development Block Grant) to allow program with capital investment time to develop and reap rewards.