# Presentation: 794729

##  Planned Changes to Models and Trait Definitions 

## November 2004 Changes

**Pregnancy checks used in days open predictions ****(130-250 DIM)**
**Longevity for foreign Holstein bulls**
**Single-trait longevity from Interbull**
**Multi-trait processing at AIPL**
**Foreign bull mean PL REL = 46%  (was 38%), NM$ REL = 72% (was 71%)**
**15 countries ****(Other breeds Feb. 2005)**

## 2005 Trait and Model Changes

**Adjust for past inbreeding (F) and expected future inbreeding (EFI)**
**Adjust for differing parity SD**
**Express yield PTA to ****36-month**** age instead of mature equivalent**
**Use cow instead of bull base for DPR**
**Use ****3.00**** instead of breed means for SCS**

## SCS Breed Means and Bases

| SCS | HOL | JER | BSW | GUE | AYS | MSH |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1995  | 3.10 | 3.31 | 3.09 | 3.21 | 2.93 | 3.03 |
| 2000 | 3.09 | 3.34 | 2.94 | 3.31 | 2.97 | 3.07 |
| February 2005 base | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| PTA base change | -.11 | -.32 | -.05 | -.23 | +.08 | -.05 |

## Daughter Pregnancy Rate Bases

| PTA DPR | HOL | JER | BSW | GUE | AYS | MSH |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1995 cow mean  | .4 | .2 | .6 | -.3 | -.1 | .5 |
| PTA progress | -.1 | -.1 | -.2 | -.2 | .0 | .0 |
| PTA base change | -.3 | -.1 | -.4 | +.5 | +.1 | -.5 |

## Inbreeding AdjustmentsVanRaden and Smith, 1999, JDS 82:2771

**F (past inbrd.) and EFI (future inbrd.)**
**Regression on F in animal model (PTA****0****)**
**PTA****EFI**** = PTA****0**** + EFI * b****yield.F**** **
**Corr (current PTA, PTA****EFI****) = ****.9976**
**Genetic trend for PTA****EFI**** is reduced**
**Yield trend ****6%**** less, DPR ****14%**** lower, PL ****25%**** lower, SCS becomes slightly unfavorable**
**Predict NM$****EFI**** = NM$ + 7 (F****daus****) – 14 (EFI)**

## Use in Mating Programs

**Replace EFI with progeny F**
**PA NM$ = (NM$****sire**** + NM$****dam****)/2**
**Progeny merit = PA NM$ – ****14 **** [F****prog**** - (EFI****sire**** - EFI****dam****)/2]**
**Similar to calving ease**
**NM$ includes average value of SCE**
**SCE has higher value for heifer matings, lower for cow matings**

## Parity SD Adjustments

**Multiplicative or additive adjustments?**
**Neither makes variances quite equal**
**Combined approach (Funk et al, 1991 JDS)**
**Lactation 1-5 deviations multiplied by**
**[1.06 .99 .94 .89 .85] (milk, fat, protein)**
**[ .97 .99 1.01 1.02 1.02] (SCS)**
**[1.03 1.00 .98 .97 .96] (DPR)**
**Helps pass Interbull trend test 1**
**Corr (official, adjusted PTA) = ****.9998**

## Age Adjustment for Yield PTA

**Use ****36 months**** vs. mature equivalent**
**Standardized and actual means similar**
**Age factors are estimated more precisely**
**More fair when breed maturity rates differ**
**Proposed previously by USDA**
**McDaniel (1973, JDS 56:959), Schutz (1994)**
**Recommended by Holstein GAC, Oct 1994**
**Vetoed by Council in 1994 “to allow the industry time to consider the nature and effect of such a change.”**

## Breed SD and Maturity Rates Age factors from Schutz, 1994

| Yield traits | HOL | JER | BSW | GUE | AYS | MSH |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2000 SD / 1990 SD | 1.11 | 1.18 | 1.12 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 |
| ME / 24 mo  | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.37 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.29 |
| ME / 36 mo | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.15 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.15 |
| Net change in PTA SD | 1.02 | 1.06 | .98 | 1.02 | .95 | .88 |

## Actual vs Standardized Means(current CA data, all lactations)

| Herd Averages | Actual | 36-month Equiv. | Mature Equiv. |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Milk | 22,080 | 21,877 | 23,723 |
| Fat | 797 | 792 | 855 |
| Protein | 670 | 678 | 718 |

## Genetic Trend 1995-2000(cow birth year)

| PTA | HOL | JER | BSW  | GUE | AYS | MSH |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Net Merit | 155 | 128 | 146 | 100 | 76 | 57 |
| Prot (lbs) | 19 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 |
| Fat (lbs) | 18 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 6 |
| Milk (lbs) | 592 | 442 | 479 | 420 | 259 | 225 |
| Prod Life | .3 | .4 | .4 | .2 | .2 | .6 |
| SCS | .01 | .01 | -.04 | .02 | -.01 | .02 |
| DPR (%) | -.1 | -.1 | -.2 | -.2 | .0 | .0 |

## Calving Ease Changes (Feb. 2005)

**Joint BSW-HOL evaluation (pending NAAB approval)**
**11,793**** BSW, ****3431**** BSW-HOL calvings**
**12 million**** HOL calvings**
**Includes breed-of-MGS effect**
**Uses HOL (co)variance components and breed-specific bases**

## Calving Ease Model Validation

**Results passed Interbull trend validation**
**Joint BSW-HOL results compared to single-breed evaluations**
**Correlations showed BSW data did not adversely affect HOL results.**

## Within-breed vs Joint Evaluation

|  | Product-moment Correlations |  |  |  | Rank Correlations |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Breed | Sire Sol | MGS Sol | Sire PDB | MGS PDB | Sire Sol | MGS Sol | Sire PDB | MGS PDB |
| BSW | .949 | .889 | .844 | .795 | .900 | .827 | .816 | .779 |
| HOL | .999 | .999 | .999 | .999 | .999 | .999 | .992 | .970 |

**Within-breed vs Joint Evaluation**

## Summary for Calving Ease

|  | HOL | BSW |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Sire Calving Ease | 8.3 ± 1.6 | 7.6 ± 1.1 |
| Daughter Calving Ease | 7.6 ± 1.1 | 5.9 ± 0.8 |
| SCE  Reliability | 63.7 | 55.9 |
| DCE Reliability | 58.1 | 54.1 |

## Future Research

**Genetic evaluation of crossbreds**
**Productive life trait definition**
**Lactation length, yield correlations**
**Trend tests prevent inbreeding adj.**
**Yield trait model improvements**
**Mendelian sampling variance**
**Persistency, rate of maturity**

## Summary

**Longevity from Interbull in Nov 2004**
**Brown Swiss calving ease in Feb 2005**
**Adjustments for inbreeding and for differing parity SD in Feb 2005**
**Age adjustment to ****36 months**** instead of mature will affect breed means and SD**

## Longevity Genetic CorrelationsInterbull, Sept. 2004

|  | USA | CAN | DEU | NLD | FRA | ITA | GBR |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USA |  | .88 | .82 | .79 | .67 | .72 | .82 |
| CAN | .88 |  | .84 | .75 | .70 | .75 | .82 |
| DEU | .82 | .84 |  | .80 | .66 | .77 | .83 |
| NLD | .79 | .75 | .80 |  | .79 | .70 | .65 |
| FRA | .67 | .70 | .66 | .79 |  | .67 | .60 |
| ITA | .72 | .75 | .77 | .70 | .67 |  | .70 |
| GBR | .82 | .82 | .83 | .65 | .60 | .70 |  |

## Sire Calving Ease CorrelationsInterbull, Oct. 2004

|  | USA | CAN | DEU | NLD | FRA | ITA | DNK |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USA |  | .76 | .61 | .78 | .88 | .66 | .90 |
| CAN | .76 |  | .74 | .76 | .79 | .74 | .88 |
| DEU | .61 | .74 |  | .70 | .73 | .61 | .78 |
| NLD | .78 | .76 | .70 |  | .85 | .61 | .86 |
| FRA | .88 | .79 | .73 | .85 |  | .72 | .91 |
| ITA | .66 | .74 | .61 | .61 | .72 |  | .78 |
| DNK | .90 | .88 | .78 | .86 | .91 | .78 |  |

## Daughter Calving Ease CorrelationsInterbull, Oct. 2004

|  | USA | CAN | DEU | NLD | FRA | ITA | DNK |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USA |  | .71 | .68 | .79 | .90 | .84 | .77 |
| CAN | .71 |  | .87 | .87 | .72 | .58 | .91 |
| DEU | .68 | .87 |  | .87 | .58 | .61 | .80 |
| NLD | .79 | .87 | .87 |  | .75 | .67 | .84 |
| FRA | .90 | .72 | .58 | .75 |  | .82 | .77 |
| ITA | .84 | .58 | .61 | .67 | .82 |  | .61 |
| DNK | .77 | .91 | .80 | .84 | .77 | .61 |  |