# Presentation: 835267

## 2005 NASA Cost Analysis SymposiumTechnology Estimating: Organizing Chaos

- Bob Sefcik
- Glenn Research Center
- April 13, 2005

## What is CHAOS?

_**C**_leveland _**H**_aving _**A**_nother _**O**_ff-season _**S**_nowstorm

**April 3, 2005**

## Agenda

- Problem
- Approach
- NASA Technology Inventory Database
- GRC Technology Test Resource Estimating
- Next Steps

## Problem

- Asked to do independent cost estimate for Vehicle Systems Program
- No current GRC database for estimating technology development projects
- Data to populate such a database is spread out amongst many people or in long term storage or missing/discarded due to personnel turnover or ....
- No known method to estimate the cost of TRL advancement that is supported by actual data

## Approach

- Break technology work down to the major task level
- Hardware and Software Task Resources
- NASA Technology Inventory Database (NTIDB)
- Documents Center technology tasks since 1998
- Tracks planned resources and TRL advancement
- Provides previous years and future year planned activities
- Not actuals!   Very difficult to collect actuals on each task after the fact
- Center data if available
- Functional Task Resources
- Used to break down tasks captured at a higher level in the NTIDB
- Center data if available

## Task Name: Aerospace Flywheel Technology

Objective & Description:  Flywheel energy systems provide storage of energy and momentum using high speed rotating masses.  They offer the potential....

Benefit:  Flywheels promise order of magnitude increases in performance...

Technology Metrics: Watts/kg...

- Objective & Description:  Flywheel energy systems provide storage of energy and momentum using high speed rotating masses.  They offer the potential....
- Benefit:  Flywheels promise order of magnitude increases in performance...
- Technology Metrics: Watts/kg...

**NASA Technology Inventory Database Content**

| Task ID  | Center | Sponsor | UPN |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5832 | GRC | AST | 755 |

## NASA Technology Inventory Database Content

- Task Name: Aerospace Flywheel Technology
- Milestones

| TRL | Year | Description |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 4 | 2004 | Complete design of advanced technology flywheel module |
| 4 | 2004 | Test counter-rotating flywheel modules on air-bearing table, full scale |
| 5 | 2005 | Conduct multi-degree-of freedom flywheel system demonstration, breadboard level |
| 5 | 2005 | Conduct characterization tests of advanced technology flywheel module |
| 6 | 2007 | TRL 6/7 estimate |

## NASA Technology Inventory Database Content

- Task Name: Aerospace Flywheel Technology
- Resources Profile

| FY | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NASA Profile in K$ | 1260 | 990 | 1250 | 1200 | 1300 | 2533 | 1900 | 1900 | 1900 |
| Civil Service FTE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |

| Distribution of NASA Funding |  | FY04 k$ |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Contracts With Whom | QSS SSC, Aerospace Corp., small vendors | 318 |
| Grants With Whom | University of Toledo, Penn State U., Auburn U. | 329 |
| NASA Field Center | GRC | 1886 |
| Other (Space Act, etc.) |  |  |
| Partnerships (included within Distribution) |  |  |
| NASA Contributions | GRC | 50 |
| Other Contributions | AFRL | 296 |

## Subsystem Technology Example

- Power Subsystem
- Power subsystem modeling
- Power subsystem testing
- Power Generation - Photovoltaics
- Solar cell development
- Lightweight array technology
- Inflatable structures
- Array deployment
- Energy Storage
- Batteries
- Flywheels
- Power Management and Distribution
- High-temperature electronics
- High-rad parts
- Packaging
- Component technology – power control unit

## Component/Single Task Estimating (Using the NASA Technology Inventory Database)

- Power Subsystem
- Power Generation - Photovoltaics
- Lightweight array technology

## Assembly/Multi-Task Estimating (Using the NASA Technology Inventory Database)

- Power Subsystem
- Energy Storage
- Flywheels – component technology, rim technology, bearing technology, increased reliability, use studies

## Functional Task Estimating

- Facility Testing
- GRC facility testing is documented in Project Summary Reports
- Reports for multiple projects available for certain facilities (9X15, 10X10, 8X6, & 1X1)
- Description of test installation available to determine complexity
- Test statistics – planned/actual # of runs and run time, facility occupancy time, schedules
- Resources – Labor hours by org., power usage, some purchases
- Question:  Can the data be parametrically modeled?

## Measuring Complexity of the Test Installation

- Assigned a complexity weight to each facility system
- Sum of all facility system weights equals 1.00 or 100% without considering test complexity
- Facility system weights provided by facilities personnel
- Calculated the test setup complexity
- Multiplied the system weights times a complexity factor associated with the planned use of the facility system for the current test as compared to past tests:  0-Not Used, 1-Less Complex, 2-Average, 3-More Complex
- Historical project complexity factors determined by facilities personnel

## Document Test Complexity (9X15 Example)

## Collect Historical Test Data (9X15 Example)

## Collect Historical Test Data (9X15 Example)

## Using the Available Data

- Identified desired dependent variables
- Labor Hours
- Megawatt Hours
- Facility Occupancy
- Identified independent variables that provide the best predictive results within the range of the data in the database

## Independent Variables

| Labor Hour Prediction |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|                                 Facility
Variable | 9 X 15 | 10 X 10 | 8 X 6 | 1 X 1 |
| CMPLX Factor |  |  |  |  |
| Occupancy Time |  |  |  |  |
| Test Runs |  |  |  |  |
| Test Hours |  |  |  |  |
| Megawatt Hour Prediction |  |  |  |  |
| CMPLX Factor |  |  |  |  |
| Occupancy Time |  |  |  |  |
| Test Runs |  |  |  |  |
| Test Hours |  |  |  |  |
| Occupancy Month Prediction |  |  |  |  |
| CMPLX Factor |  |  |  |  |
| Test Runs |  |  |  |  |
| Test Hours |  |  |  |  |

## Test Facility Survey

- Request selected test planning data

## Test Facility Survey

- Request test setup data based on use of facility systems identified in the facility user manual

## Model Inputs

## Model Outputs

## Next Steps – Technology Inventory Database

- Recommend advocating at HQs to use it as the technology side of the ONCE database – currently under Exploration Systems – decision for future direction to be issued in May
- Define a formal, top-down approach to ensure all technology tasks are included
- Coordinate with ESMD to change input requirements to incorporate actual versus planned data, ensure all and only needed data is collected,  and minimize the task manager’s work to input the data
- Develop multi-year reporting capability to include desired fields
- Current POCs: Doug Craig/HQ, Mary Reph/GSFC (301) 286-1917

## Next Steps – In-House Tools

- Continue to ‘tweak’ the test model to incorporate recommended changes/enhancements.
- Model, as configured, uses planned Occupancy, Test Runs and Test Hours for resource calculations.  Based on historical changes in plans, develop expected numbers for all three factors to use to get a potential range.
- Collect more test article procurement costs and technical data to enable cost estimation of the hardware/software.
- Work other ‘low hanging fruit’ – groupings of technology tasks with easily obtainable data - as it is identified.