# Presentation: 554430

## Short-to-Long Range Forecast Services 

- Kris Lander
- Hydrologist, CRH
- National HPM Conference
- July 2007

## Presentation Overview

- What’s on the horizon for Short-to-Long Term Forecasting
- Overview of Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction
- XEFS...an evolutionary ensemble forecast system

## The Big Picture: Seamless probabilistic forecasts for all lead times

**The Big Picture: Seamless probabilistic forecasts for all lead times**

## Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction

**Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction**

- Why ensemble prediction?

***Probabilistic forecasts***

***Risk-based decision making***

***Minimize loss & maximize benefit***

***Ensemble prediction***

## Why Ensemble Prediction? 

**Uncertainty** has an impact on hydrologic forecasts.
- The goal of ensemble forecasting is to **quantify the** **forecast uncertainty** in an objective manner.
- Through the process of ensemble forecasting, some **bias and** **uncertainty is reduced**.
- Ensemble products can be used to **communicate this uncertainty** to customers.

## Forecast Uncertainties

- Meteorological Inputs:
- Precipitation & temperature
- Model errors:
- Parametric, structural
- Initial conditions of the model:
- Soil water, snow water equivalent
- Flow regulation:
- Reservoirs, diversions & returns

## Quantifying Forecast Uncertainties

**Quantifying Forecast Uncertainties**

- Uncertainty in initial conditions

- Parametric uncertainty

- Lead Time

- Uncertainty

- Meteorological/Input uncertainty

## Reducing Forecast Uncertainties

**Reducing Forecast Uncertainties**

- Uncertainty in initial conditions

- Parametric uncertainty

- Lead Time

- Uncertainty

- Meteorological/Input uncertainty

- Reduced uncertainty due to pre-processing

- Reduced uncertainty due to calibration

- Reduced uncertainty due to data assimilation

## Experimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS)

- XEFS is an “evolutionary system”
- Currently in the planning and prototyping stage
- Focused on producing the short-term ensemble and blending with long term.
- OHD and RFCs working closely to bring research to operations and provide feedback.

## Experimental Ensemble Forecasting System (XEFS) Goals:

- Develop and implement, in 2 to 3 years, a baseline prototype system.
- Develop an ensemble forecasting infrastructure common to OHD and RFCs:
- Develop requirements and operations concept
- Identify areas of science enhancements
- Assess value and performance of additional capabilities and features
- Transition to AWIPS/FEWS Service Oriented Architecture in 3-10 years.

## EPP3

- IFP

- OFS

- Raw flow ens.

- Pp’ed flow ens.

- Ensemble Verification System

- Flow Data

- Product Generation Subsystem

- Ensemble verification products

- Hydrologic Ensemble Hindcaster

- Ens. User Interface

- EPP User Interface

- Ens. Pre-Processor

- Atmospheric forcing data

- Ensemble/prob. products

- Ens. Post-Proc.

- Ens. Streamflow Prediction System

- HMOS Ensemble Processor

- MODs

***EPP3***

***ESP2***

***EnsPost***

***EPG***

***EVS***

- Hydro-meteorol. ensembles

*XEFS Graphical User Interface*

- Web Inter-face

- From XEFS Design and Gap Analysis Report (2007, available at http://www.weather.gov/oh/rfcdev/docs/XEFS_design_gap_analysis_report_final.pdf)

## Basic XEFS Components:Ensemble Generator

***Verification ***
***System***

## Basic XEFS Components:Ensemble Generator

***Ensemble Pre-Processor***

***Parametric Uncertainty Processor***

***Data Assimilator***

***Ensemble Post-Processor***

***Ensemble Product Generator***

***Hydrologic & Hydraulic Models***

***Forecasts Precipitation, Temperature, etc.***

***Observed Precipitation, Soil Moisture, Snow Water Equivalent, etc.***

***Streamflow***

- Reduced systematic bias and accounts for uncertainty in future forcing

- Reduced systematic bias and accounts for uncertainty in hydrologic and hydraulic models

- Reduces and accounts for uncertainty in model initial conditions

**Basic XEFS Components:****Ensemble Generator**

- Reduces and accounts for bias due to uncertainty in  model parameters

***Verification ***
***System***

## From Ensembles to Actionable Products

**From Ensembles to Actionable Products**

- Future precipitation

- Future streamflow

- Future temperature

- Probabilistic inundation map

## Ensemble Product Generation Concept

## Conceptual Web Interface: Ensemble Generation

## Conceptual Product:Mapping Forecast Probabilities

**Conceptual Product:****Mapping Forecast Probabilities**

## Conceptual Product:Hydrologic Forecast Graphic

**Conceptual Product:****Hydrologic Forecast Graphic**

**Verification Statistics**

## Conceptual Product:Hydrologic Forecast Graphic

**Verification Statistics**

## Conceptual Product:Probabilistic Flood Mapping

**Conceptual Product:****Probabilistic Flood Mapping**

**Verification Statistics**

## Current Capabilities

- ESP Analysis and Display Program (ESP ADP)
- Jointly developed prototype XEFS modules tested at RFCs
**EPP:** MARFC, CNRFC, CBRFC, ABRFC
**EVS:** MARFC, CNRFC
**EnsPost:** MARFC
_**Separate Project:**_ RFCs experimenting with ensemble forecasting based on 95% Confidence Interval QPF

## Timeline for XEFS Implementation

- Progress to Date:
- May, 2007: XEFS Design and Gap Analysis Report
- The core modules EPP2 and HMOS are completed.
- Four RFCs are testing short-term ESP
- Future Plans:
- Next 2-3 years: Functional XEFS prototype to be delivered to RFCs
- Develop a tool that flow regulations
- Further development hinges on future approaches to service oriented approach (SOA) to software architecture
- Delivery of Ensemble Products to WFOs and customers is yet to be determined

## Research & Development Team

_**Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Group (HEP)**_
_**D.-J. Seo**_ – UCAR Scientist, Group Leader
_**Julie Demargne**_ – UCAR Scientist
_**Limin Wu**_ – RSIS Scientific Programmer & Software Engineer (on loan from HSEB)
_**James Brown**_ – UCAR Scientist
_**Haksu Lee**_ – UCAR Scientist
_**Satish Regonda**_ – NRC Postdoctoral Associate
_**John Schaake**_ - Science Consultant through RTi contract
_**Experimental Ensemble Forecast System Team (XEFS)**_
_**Robert Hartman: **_HIC  CNRFC
_**DJ Seo:**_ OHD
_**Bill Lawrence: **_DOH, ABRFC_** **_
_**Steve Schumate: **_DOH, CBRFC_** **_
_**Joe Ostrowski: **_DOH, MARFC
_**John Halquist: **_DOH, NCRFC
_**Chris Dietz: **_OHD
_**Mary Mullusky: **_OCCWS
**DOH Science Steering Team (DSST)**

## Resources

**General Ensemble Training**
- _[http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/](http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/)_
**OHD Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Group**
- _[http://www.weather.gov/oh/hrl/hsmb/hydrologic_ensembles/](http://www.weather.gov/oh/hrl/hsmb/hydrologic_ensembles/)_
**2006 RFC Short-Term Ensemble Workshop**
- _[http://www.weather.gov/oh/hrl/hsmb/hydrologic_ensembles/events_announcements/RFC_STE_Workshop_Nov06_Agenda.html](http://www.weather.gov/oh/hrl/hsmb/hydrologic_ensembles/events_announcements/RFC_STE_Workshop_Nov06_Agenda.html)_
**XEFS Design and Gap Analysis Report**
- _[http://www.weather.gov/oh/rfcdev/docs/XEFS_design_gap_analysis_report_final.pdf](http://www.weather.gov/oh/rfcdev/docs/XEFS_design_gap_analysis_report_final.pdf)_
**CNRFC AHPS ESP-ADP Ensemble Web Interface**
- _[http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/index.php?type=ahps_esp](http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/index.php?type=ahps_esp)_