# Presentation: 490075

## NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

## What is the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed?

- Both a facility and an organization...
*	**- The facility is located on the second floor of the new NWC, between the SPC and WFO OUN operational forecasting areas. *
*	**- An organization that supports and promotes collaborative research activities between NSSL, SPC, OUN, and the broader meteorological community.*

- Two Main Program Areas...

**E**xperimental
**W**arning
**P**rogram

**E**xperimental
**F**orecast
**P**rogram

## Hazardous Weather Testbed Benefits

- The close working relationship between operational and research meteorologists has fostered
*Increased appreciation by ****Research Meteorologists**** of forecaster insights, and operational constraints and requirements *
*Education of ****Operational Meteorologists**** about NWP models, other research and diagnostic tools, and application of scientific knowledge to severe weather forecasting*
***Accelerated transfer**** of useful new technologies, products and diagnostic / prediction tools from research to operations*

## SPC-NSSL Formal Collaborative Activities Background Information 

- By late 1999, a grassroots effort led by small group of SPC and NSSL staff began a more formal effort to conduct applied convective research
- Goal - identify issues of mutual interest for both severe weather forecasters and researchers, ultimately leading to improved severe storm forecasting
- What is now called the “Spring Experiment” was launched in early 2000

## NOAA Hazardous Weather TestbedSPC/NSSL Spring Experiments

- Recent Spring Experiments examined Short-Range Ensembles and convection-allowing WRF models
*Can new NWP concepts provide useful guidance for severe weather forecasting?*
*Partnerships with EMC, NCAR, and OU-CAPS*
*Developed and tested many new SREF and WRF guidance tools that were subsequently transferred to SPC operations*

-      SREF Spaghetti Chart                                    4.5 km WRF-NMM Reflectivity

**Notes:**
Chose day 2 outlook because wanted to keep focus on models, not observations, as much as possible.  Also, the current resolution (48 km) of the ncep sref is better suited for outlook-scale forecasts.

## Why Examine HiRes WRF Models?

- Severe weather types (tornadoes, hail, wind damage) can be closely related to convective mode
*Tornadoes (discrete supercells; embedded supercells in lines)*
*Damaging wind (bow echoes and bowing line segments)*
- SPC working to increase lead time of watches, and  provide probabilistic information about tornado, hail, and wind threats in day 1 outlooks
- We require information about “where” and “when” storms will develop and how they will evolve
*There is a need to accurately predict convective mode and character of storms* *(storm scale details)*
*Environmental clues (CAPE/shear, etc.) may not be sufficient*
*Operational mesoscale models lack smaller scale details *

**Notes:**
Chose day 2 outlook because wanted to keep focus on models, not observations, as much as possible.  Also, the current resolution (48 km) of the ncep sref is better suited for outlook-scale forecasts.

## WRF Simulated Reflectivity Product

-  **High res WRF reflectivity can provide mesoscale and near stormscale details not seen in traditional output**

*21 hour forecasts valid 21 UTC 15 Nov 2005*

*    **NAM-Eta 3h Pcpn**	**	** 4.5 km WRF-NMM Reflectivity*

## Spring Experiment 2005

**Partnerships**
*Hi-res WRF forecasts produced by OU/CAPS, EMC, and NCAR*
**Applied Science**** **
*Forecasts of simulated reflectivity from different WRF versions*
*PBL evolution from different WRF versions (sounding analysis)*
*Sensitivity of ARW forecasts to grid resolution (4 km vs 2 km)*
*Extract information about model generated storms containing mesocyclones (e.g., supercells)*
**Forecast Issues**
*How do we use high resolution WRF models in conjunction with operational mesoscale deterministic and ensemble model output?*

## WRF 24 hr Reflectivity Forecasts Valid 00z 12 May 2005

- ARW4
- ARW2

- NMM4
- RADAR

## Use of SREF and High-Res WRF

- EMC SREF and high resolution WRF models supplement traditional deterministic models in severe weather forecasting
- SREF provides information about range of possibilities and can help quantify uncertainty
*Ingredient-based approach based on predicted environment** *
*Improved by statistical post-processing (e.g., calibration)*
- ~4 km WRF offers insights into convective initiation, evolution, mode and intensity
*Often credible *_*mesoscale*_* prediction of convective systems*
*Grid length permits “approximation” of  *_*stormscale*_* structures*
- Key forecaster challenge
*Hi Res WRF forecasts often “appear” plausible*
*When to believe stormscale details and when not to?*
- S*uggests role for high resolution ensembles *

## Proposed HWT Activities: EFP-Spring 2007

- Annual SPC/NSSL Spring Program (EFP)
- First year of multi-year effort (2007-2009)
*Contributing Partners****:****  SPC, NSSL, CAPS, EMC, NCAR, OUN (unique diversity of backgrounds and expertise)*
**Scientific Objectives:**
- Improve high resolution WRF models
- Further explore impacts of various physics (PBL, microphysics, etc.) on high-res WRF forecasts
- Pre-convective environment, PBL sounding structure, and convective storms
- Continue investigating impact of resolution on WRF simulation of stormscale structures (e.g., supercells, bow echoes, etc.)

## Proposed HWT Activities: EFP-Spring 2007

- Annual SPC/NSSL Spring Program (EFP)
**Scientific Objectives (cont’d)**
- Begin to explore development and utility of a ***daily high resolution convection-allowing 10 member WRF ensemble*** in short-term (12-30h) prediction of severe convection
- Investigate IC versus physics spread in convection-allowing ensemble
- Explore understanding of physics on ensemble performance
- Environment; convective initiation, intensity and mode
- Compare to “higher” resolution deterministic WRF
- 2 km WRF (CAPS) and 3 km WRF (NCAR)
- Begin developing interrogation tools to extract ensemble-based information for a variety of hazardous weather events

## Proposed HWT Activities: EFP-Spring 2007

**Summary of Annual SPC/NSSL Spring Program**
- First year of a collaborative multi-year, incremental process to:
- Improve high resolution WRF models for prediction of high impact convective weather events
- Address fundamental ensemble design questions at convection-allowing scales
- ICs versus physics
- Sensitivity of high resolution forecasts to mesoscale bred modes
- Examine costs and benefits of ensemble versus even higher resolution deterministic WRF
- Enhancements and improvements to model/system designs are planned for subsequent years

## Proposed HWT Activities: EFP-Spring 2007

- Annual SPC/NSSL Spring Program (EFP)
**Where and When:**
*Northeast half of HWT room, ~8-5 daily (M-F), mid-April through early June*
**Participation:**
*~60 researchers and forecasters from government agencies, academia, and the private sector*
*Most participants will rotate in for 1 continuous week as members of weekly forecast/evaluation teams*
*~6-10 active participants at any time*

## Proposed Year-1 

**6 (5) Physics perts (unique**
**members)**
**          **_**Advantages**_
-  Allows for clean comparison
- between IC perts and physics
- perts
-  Fosters understanding
- of model physics
**       **_**Disadvantages**_
-  Likely spread
- deficient -- degraded
- statistical attributes
-  No perts to soil
- moisture, radiation, etc.

| 
 | CTRL
LBC-CTRL | P1
LBC-P1 | N1
LBC-N1 | P2
LBC-P2 | N2
LBC-N2 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WSM6
MYJ
NOAH | 
X/X | 
X | 
X | 
X | 
X |
| Lin
MYJ
NOAH | 
X |  |  |  |  |
| Ferrier
MYJ
NOAH | 
X |  |  |  |  |
| WSM6
MYJ
RUC |  |  |  |  |  |
| WSM6
YSU
NOAH | 
X |  |  |  |  |
| Lin
YSU
NOAH | 
X |  |  |  |  |
| Ferrier
YSU
NOAH | 
X |  |  |  |  |
| WSM6
YSU
RUC | 
 |  |  |  |  |

**Proposed Year-1 **
**Configuration A***

- * Ensemble design in years 2+ can focus on
-  maximizing spread/utility through interacting
-  IC/physics perturbations (and the addition of the
-  WRF-NMM dynamic core).

## Proposed Year-1 

**6 (5) Physics perts with**
**IC/LBC perts (unique**
**members)**
**          **_**Advantages**_
-  Allows some comparison
- between IC perts and physics
- perts
-  Fosters understanding
- of paired IC/model physics
**       **_**Disadvantages**_
-  Still may be spread
- deficient -- degraded
- statistical attributes
-  No perts to soil
- moisture, radiation, etc.

| 
 | CTRL
LBC-CTRL | P1
LBC-P1 | N1
LBC-N1 | P2
LBC-P2 | N2
LBC-N2 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WSM6
MYJ
NOAH | 
X/X | 
X | 
X | 
X | 
X |
| Lin
MYJ
NOAH | 
 | 
X |  |  |  |
| Ferrier
MYJ
NOAH | 
 |  | 
X |  |  |
| WSM6
MYJ
RUC |  |  |  |  |  |
| WSM6
YSU
NOAH | 
 |  |  | 
X |  |
| Lin
YSU
NOAH | 
 |  |  |  | 
X |
| Ferrier
YSU
NOAH | 
X |  |  |  |  |
| WSM6
YSU
RUC | 
 |  |  |  |  |

**Proposed Year-1 **
**Configuration B***

- * Ensemble design in years 2+ can focus on
-  maximizing spread/utility through interacting
-  IC/physics perturbations (and the addition of the
-  WRF-NMM dynamic core).

## Proposed Year-1 

| 
 | IC-CTRL
LBC-CTRL | IC-P1
LBC-P1 | IC-N1
LBC-N1 | IC-P2
LBC-P2 | IC-N2
LBC-N2 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WSM6
MYJ
NOAH | 
X | 
  | 
 | 
 | 
 |
| Lin
MYJ
NOAH | 
X | 
      | 
       | 
      | 
   X |
| Ferrier
MYJ
NOAH | 
  | 
       | 
    X |  | 
   X |
| WSM6
MYJ
RUC |  | 
     X  |  |  |  |
| WSM6
YSU
NOAH |  |  |  | 
     X |  |
| Lin
YSU
NOAH |  |  |  | 
     X |  |
| Ferrier
YSU
NOAH | 
 |  | 
     X |  |  |
| WSM6
YSU
RUC | 
 | 

       X |  |  |  |

**IC/LBC and Physics **
**perturbations considered **
**in pairs**
**          **_**Advantages**_
-  Some model-to-model
-    sensitivity diagnostics
-  Increased spread over
-    proposals A and B
**       **_**Disadvantages**_
-  Does not allow direct physics
-    comparison beyond one
-    member
-   More difficult to separate
-    role of physics perts from
-    IC perts

**Proposed Year-1 **
**Configuration C**

## Proposed Year-1 Configuration D

|  | IC-CTRL
LBC-CTRL | IC-P1
LBC-P1 | IC-N1
LBC-N1 | IC-P2
LBC-P2 | IC-N2
LBC-N2 | IC-P3
LBC-P3
 | IC-N3
LBC-N3
 | IC-P4
LBC-P4
 | IC-N4
LBC-N4
 | IC-P5
LBC-P5
 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WSM6
MYJ
NOAH | X |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Lin
MYJ
NOAH |  |    X |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Ferrier
MYJ
NOAH |  |  |    X |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| WSM6
YSU
NOAH |  |  |  |    X |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Lin
YSU
NOAH |  |  |  |  |    X |  |  |  |  |  |
| Ferrier
YSU
NOAH |  |  |  |  |  |    X |  |  |  |  |
| WSM6
YSU
RUC |  |  |  |  |  |  |    X |  |  |  |
| WSM6
MYJ
RUC |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |    X |  |  |
| Lin
MYJ
RUC |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |    X |  |
| Ferrier
YSU
RUC |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |    X |

**Full Mixed Ensembles (Unique IC/LBC and physics)**

**Proposed Year-1 Configuration D**

**Advantage: Likely maximum spread;     Disadvantage: Little to no ability to evaluate physics vs IC roles**