# Presentation: 925018

## Annual Energy Outlook 2002

**Mary J. Hutzler**
**Acting Administrator**
**Energy Information Administration**

## Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2020

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**1960**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**60**

**70**

**80**

**90**

**100**

**110**

**120**

**130**

**History**

**Projections**

**AEO2001**

**AEO2002**

## Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Gross Domestic

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**0.2**

**0.4**

**0.6**

**0.8**

**1.0**

**1.2**

**History**

**Projections**

**Energy use per capita**

**Energy use per dollar**
**of GDP**

**Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Gross Domestic**
**Product, 1970-2020 (index, 1970=1)**

## Primary Energy Consumption by Sector, 1970-2020

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**Residential**

**Industrial**

**Transportation**

**Commercial**

**History**

**Projections**

## Residential Primary Energy Consumption by End Use,

**Space**
**heating**

**Space**
**cooling**

**Water**
**heating**

**Refrig-**
**eration**

**Lighting**

**All**
**other**

**0**

**2**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**10**

**1990**

**1997**

**2020**

**2010**

**Residential Primary Energy Consumption by End Use,**
**1990, 1997, 2010, and 2020 (quadrillion Btu)**

**105.2**

**127.1**

**Total Households**
**(millions)**

**2000**

**2020**

## Commercial Primary Energy Consumption by End Use,

**2000**

**2020**

**Lighting**

**Space**
**heating**

**Cooling**

**Water**
**heating**

**Office:**
**PCs**

**Office:**
**other**

**Misc.**
**gas**

**All**
**other**

**0**

**2**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**2000**

**2020**

**64.5**

**89.6**

**Commercial Floorspace**
**(billion square feet)**

**Commercial Primary Energy Consumption by End Use,**
**2000 and 2020 (quadrillion Btu)**

## Transportation Energy Consumption by Fuel,

**2000**

**2020**

**Total Consumption**

**18.3**

**39.6**

**1975**

**2020**

**Motor**
**gasoline**

**Diesel fuel**

**Jet fuel**

**Alternative**
**fuels**

**0**

**4**

**8**

**12**

**16**

**20**

**24**

**Transportation Energy Consumption by Fuel,**
**1975, 2000, and 2020 (quadrillion Btu)**

## Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2020

**(million barrels per day)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**Industrial**

**History**

**Projections**

**Transportation**

**Residential and commercial**

**Electricity generation**

## Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports, 1970-2020

**(million barrels per day)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**30**

**Domestic supply**

**Consumption**

**History**

**Projections**

**Net imports**

## Projected U.S. Gross Petroleum Imports by Source,

**2000-2020 (million barrels per day)**

**2000**

**2005**

**2010**

**2015**

**2020**

**0**

**2**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**10**

**12**

**14**

**16**

**18**

**Caribbean**

**Europe**

**North**
**America**

**Far East**

**Other**

**Other**
**OPEC**

**OPEC**
**Persian**
**Gulf**

## World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1970-2020

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**60**

**70**

**Reference**

**Low price**

**High price**

**History**

**Projections**

**17.05**

**42.12**

**Reference Case**
**(nominal dollars)**

**1995**

**2020**

**World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1970-2020**
**(2000 dollars per barrel)**

## Population, Gross Domestic Product, and Electricity Sales,

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**2**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**History**

**Projections**

**Population**

**Electricity  sales**

**GDP**

**Population, Gross Domestic Product, and Electricity Sales,**
**1965-2020 (5-year moving average annual percent growth)**

## Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, 1970-2020

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**1,000**

**2,000**

**3,000**

**4,000**

**5,000**

**Commercial**

**Residential**

**Industrial**

**History**

**Projections**

**Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, 1970-2020**
**(billion kilowatthours)**

## Projected Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel

**2000-2005**

**2006-2010**

**2011-2015**

**2016-2020**

**0**

**40**

**80**

**120**

**Natural gas**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

**Projected Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel**
**Type, Including Cogeneration, 2000-2020 (gigawatts)**

## Projected Additions of Renewable Generating Capacity,

**Biomass**

**Geothermal**

**Landfill**
**gas**

**Solar**

**Wind**

**0**

**1,000**

**2,000**

**3,000**

**4,000**

**5,000**

**6,000**

**7,000**

**Other planned**

**Unplanned**

**State mandates**

**Projected Additions of Renewable Generating Capacity,**
**2001-2020 (megawatts)**

## Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by North

**2000-2005**

**2006-2010**

**2011-2015**

**2016-2020**

**Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by North**
**American Electric Reliability Council Region, 2000-2020**
**(gigawatts)**

**9.9**

**11.9**

**8.6**

**8.2**

**7.8**

**18.6**

**6.5**

**5.5**

**5.8**

**7.0**

**6.0**

**4.3**

**5.4**

**3.2**

**3.1**

**5.4**

**2.7**

**2.7**

**2.6**

**4.9**

**1.7**

**3.7**

**1.3**

**0.2**

**2.0**

**2.9**

**1.8**

**1.0**

**6.8**

**9.0**

**7.0**

**8.5**

**8.7**

**26.1**

**22.6**

**23.8**

**3.5**

**4.8**

**3.3**

**3.3**

**4.7**

**9.8**

**8.1**

**7.8**

**5.7**

**6.4**

**3.4**

**5.6**

**8.6**

**12.8**

**12.8**

**14.3**

**3**

**2**

**2**

**1**

**4**

**2**

**3**

**5**

**6**

**8**

**9**

**8**

**12**

**11**

**15**

**15**

**8**

**5**

**4**

**6**

**5**

**6**

**4**

**4**

**3**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**6**

**7**

**5**

**2**

**3**

**1**

**0**

**13**

**10**

**10**

**9**

**11**

**15**

**7**

**6**

**12**

**22**

**26**

**26**

**9**

**7**

**8**

**9**

**Percent of total U.S.**

**30.5**

**21.1**

**48.5**

**12.9**

**16.9**

**38.3**

**17.0**

**81.2**

**31.3**

**6.9**

**7.9**

**23.1**

**38.6**

**Total Regional Builds**

**7**

## Projected Levelized Electricity Generation Costs,

**Coal**

**Gas**
**Combined**
**Cycle**

**2005**

**Wind**

**Nuclear**

**Coal**

**Gas**
**Combined**
**Cycle**

**2020**

**Wind**

**Nuclear**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**60**

**70**

**Capital costs**

**Variable costs, including fuel**

**Fixed costs**

**Projected Levelized Electricity Generation Costs,**
**2005 and 2020 (2000 mills per kilowatthour)**

**51.8**

**40.9**

**51.3**

**68.5**

**46.8**

**44.7**

**46.9**

**62.5**

## Average U.S. Retail Electricity Prices, 1970-2020

**Average Price**
**(nominal cents)**

**11.3**

**1.7**

**1970**

**2020**

**Average U.S. Retail Electricity Prices, 1970-2020**
**(2000 cents per kilowatthour)**

**History**

**Projections**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**2**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**10**

## Projected Operable Nuclear Capacity in Three Cases,

**Reference**

**High**

**Reference case**

**Low nuclear**

**High nuclear**

**Nuclear Generation, 2020**
**(billion kilowatthours)**

**1995**

**2000**

**2005**

**2010**

**2015**

**2020**

**0**

**20**

**40**

**60**

**80**

**100**

**0**

**250**

**500**

**750**

**Projected Operable Nuclear Capacity in Three Cases,**
**1995-2020 (gigawatts)**

## Projected Cumulative New Generating Capacity by Type

**Reference**

**High demand**

**0**

**50**

**100**

**150**

**200**

**250**

**Turbines**

**Coal steam**

**Combined cycle**

**Renewables**

**Projected Cumulative New Generating Capacity by Type**
**in Two Cases, 2000-2020 (gigawatts)**

## Generation by Fuel in the Reference and RPS 10 Cases,

**2020 (billion kilowatthours)**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

**Oil**

**Hydro**

**Geothermal**

**MSW**

**Biomass**

**Solar Thermal**

**Solar PV**

**Wind**

**Ocean**

**Other**

**0**

**500**

**1,000**

**1,500**

**2,000**

**2,500**

**  ****AEO2002**

**  ****10% RPS**

**Geothermal**

**MSW**

**Biomass**

**Dedicated**

**Biomass**

**Cofiring**

**Solar**

**Thermal**

**Solar**

**PV**

**Wind**

**Ocean**

**0**

**25**

**50**

**75**

**100**

**125**

**150**

**175**

**Generation by Non-Hydroelectric Renewable Fuels**

**edicated**

**Biomass**

**Cofiring**

## Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2020

**1990**

**1995**

**2000**

**2005**

**2010**

**2015**

**2020**

**0**

**2**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**10**

**12**

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Industrial**

**History**

**Projections**

**Electricity generators**

**CNG vehicles**

**Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2020**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

## Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Imports,

**1970-2020 (trillion cubic feet)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**30**

**35**

**History**

**Projections**

**Supply**

**Consumption**

**Net**
**Imports**

**Pipeline**

**Liquefied Natural Gas**

**0**

**1**

**2**

**3**

**4**

**5**

**2000**

**2020**

**Natural Gas Imports**
** ****2000 and 2020**

## Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three Cases,

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**1**

**2**

**3**

**4**

**Slow technology**

**Reference**

**Rapid technology**

**History**

**Projections**

**Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three Cases,**
**1970-2020 (2000 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

## Coal Production by Region, 1970-2020

**(million short tons)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**250**

**500**

**750**

**1,000**

**1,250**

**1,500**

**Eastern**

**Western**

**Total**

**History**

**Projections**

## Average Minemouth Price of Coal by Region,

**Projections**

**Average Price**
**(nominal dollars)**

**21.83**

**18.83**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**60**

**1995**

**2020**

**Average Minemouth Price of Coal by Region,**
**1970-2020 (2000 dollars per short ton)**

## Projected U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**500**

**1,000**

**1,500**

**2,000**

**2,500**

**Industrial**

**Commercial**

**Residential**

**Transportation**

**Natural gas**

**Coal**

**Petroleum**

**Projected U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and**
**Fuel, 1990-2020 (million metric tons carbon equivalent)**

**2,088**

**1,352**