# Presentation: 687385

## 2007 

**2007 **
**Non-Geosynchronous Orbits Commercial**
**Space Transportation**
**Forecast**

- John Sloan
- Federal Aviation Administration
- Office of Commercial Space Transportation
- john.sloan@faa.gov
- May 18, 2007

**Notes:**
john.sloan@faa.gov

## Introduction

- The Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) forecast includes payloads open to internationally competed launch services procurement and other commercially sponsored payloads
- Payloads that generate launch demand; not secondaries
- Market demand; not a prediction of actual launches

- Worldwide Commercial Launches

## New to the NGSO 2007-2016 Forecast

- Globalstar’s next generation constellation
- No launch vehicles selected yet, evaluating 6 to 8 satellites per launch
- In a hurry to deploy next generation in addition to two launches in 2007
- A Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing by Globalstar warned of a possible worst-case scenario: the current constellation could be unable to complete telephone calls in 2008 because of     S-band antenna difficulties
- Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program
- Demonstration launches for NASA by SpaceX and Rocketplane Kistler 2008-2010
- Boeing’s Delta II has new launches of Italy’s Cosmo-Skymed satellites
- Small increase in number of technology demonstration spacecraft
- Financial conditions have been positive in the past 12 months, especially for satellite telecommunications

## NGSO Satellite Forecast

_**2007-2016 By Sector**_
-  **48% International**
**          ****Science/Other**
-  **42% Telecommunications**
**   *****81 satellites vs. 43 ***
***   ******last year; the largest***
***   ******growth sector***
-  **10% Commercial Remote**
**          ****Sensing**

- 191 total satellites compared to 160 in 2006
-  Increase of 19 %

## NGSO Launch Demand Forecast

- 81 total launches compared to 69 in 2006
- Increase of 17 %

_**2007-2016 Launches By Sector**_
-  **52 Launches International**
**          ****Science/Other**
** ****14 Launches Telecommunications**
** ****15 Launches Commercial **
**       ****Remote Sensing **

_**Average of 8.1 Launches Per Year**_
-  **4.9 Medium-Heavy Vehicles**
***Increase of over one per year***
***compared to 2006 forecast***
** ****3.2 Small Launch Vehicles **

## Satellite and Launch Breakout

-  Globalstar has 56 satellites in the forecast
-  ORBCOMM has 25 satellites
-  Too early to forecast Iridium next generation schedule (starting 2013-2014?)
-  More Commercial Remote Sensing satellites are in the near term
-  Visibility into the market fades about four to five years ahead

## Mass Breakout NGSO

** **The 601 - 1200 kg class had only 13 satellites or 15% of
-    the total mass in the 2006 near-term forecast.
* *Globalstar second generation (2009-2010) will be heavier than
-    first generation (2007)

**Notes:**
2006-2009    45
	14
	13     600 -1,200 kg class
	12   
	84 total [2006 Forecast near-term]  

Globalstar 1st Gen mass   447 kg vs +600 2nd Gen

## Near-Term Identified Manifest

**Near-Term Identified Manifest**

**Notes:**
Only 10 of 37 identified launches in the next four years will involve a satellite owner/operator riding on a launch vehicle built by their home country.   

## Large Number of Launches in the Near Term

- There are 17 launches scheduled in 2007 and 13 each in 2008 and 2009.
- Only 5 of 13 projected launches actually launched in 2006
- Delays in funding, new satellite and launch vehicle development, and a Dnepr launch failure
- All 8 launches carried over into 2007
- NGSO 2007 forecast again contains uncertainty for the near term
- Gap between the demand for launches and actual launch rates
- Instead of changing the methodology used by all previous forecasts, a “realization factor” has been adopted for the current year as an additional marker.
- FAA realization of 10 to 13 launches for 2007

**Notes:**
As of May 10 with 1/3 of the year done, only 2 of 17 have launched 

## Financial Trends

- A lot of good news about finance
- Favorable investment terms
- Driven by an overall increase in global private equity investments
- During the 1990s (ORBCOMM, Globalstar, and Iridium), the primary investors were satellite manufacturers
- Healthy economy
- Investors are looking broadly at telecommunications to include the NGSO sector despite previous bankruptcies
- Other factors include:
- Increased number of subscribers for NGSO telecom systems
- Handsets have increased in capability while decreasing in size
- Lower prices for services
- Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) have been successful
- ORBCOMM and Globalstar each raised over $100 million in 2006
- However, FCC has little activity regarding new NGSO license applicants

## Launch Trends

- U.S. launch market share has increased to about 40% of the near-term identified market while Russia has 57%
- In recent forecasts, Russia held about 80% of the market
- Increase in U.S.-built vehicles comes from:
- COTS program launches with private co-funding
- Delta 2 Cosmo-Skymed launches
- Additional SpaceX launches
- Launch vehicles for Globalstar and ORBCOMM to be determined
- International market diversity continues
- Only 10 of 37 identified launches from 2007-2010 have the satellite owner/operator launching on a vehicle from their home country
- Mostly because of lower-priced Russian vehicles

## Summary

- Demand for an average of 8.1 worldwide commercial NGSO launches per year
- Based on projection of 191 satellites seeking launch services over the next 10 years
- Launch demand increase of 17% compared to the 2006 forecast
- More telecommunications and technology demonstration spacecraft in the forecast
- Relatively healthy forecast in the near term