# Presentation: 468074

## Partners in the emerging National Climate Services

- Art DeGaetano
- Director, NOAA Northeast RCC
- Dept. of Earth and Atmos.Sciences
-       Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

- Applied Climatology and the Role of NOAAs Regional Climate Centers -

- Ken Kunkel
- Executive Director
-  Division of Atmos. Sciences
- Desert Research Institute
- Reno, NV

- OneNOAA Science Seminars

## The face(s) of the NOAA RCC Program

- High Plains
- Dr. Dennis Todey

- Midwestern
- Mr. Steve Hilberg

- Northeast
- Dr. Art DeGaetano

- Southern
- Dr. Kevin Robbins

- Western
- Dr. Tim Brown
- Dr. Kelly Redmond

- _http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/ _

- _http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu_

- Southeast
- Dr. Peter Robinson

-  _http://www.sercc.com/_

-  http://www.srcc.lsu.edu

- _http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/_

-  _http://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/_

## A Brief History

- 1978       National Climate Program Act
- 1981-86  Demo Projects (NRCC WRCC MRCC)
- 1986       Congressionally Directed Funds
- 1990		Six RCCs Nat. Climate Prog. Office
- 1991-97  National Weather Service
- 1997 		National Climatic Data Center
- 2006		Nationally Competed (transfer of SERCC)

## What are RCCs?

- Regional **hubs** for user-centric climate services, interdisciplinary climate research, applications and education that provide a regional focus to addressing societal needs.

## Evolving RCC Functions

- Contractual obligations
- 		Data systems, user service and monitoring
- Near-real time data delivery system,
- 	Web-based information resources.
- Infrastructure capabilities grow from user and partner
-         interests and needs (e.g. Northrop Grumman)
- Efficiency and robustness
- Program versus individual centers
- Leverage infrastructure for decision support and applied research

- Evolving RCC Functions

## User Service

- Conduct outreach to regional and local decision makers on the use of climate products.
- Building design (snow loads, soil freezing),
- Flood management,
- Irrigation,
- Pest management
- Coastal erosion
- Water management
- Agriculture
- Climate change
- Energy
- Environment
- Risk management
- Transportation
- Natural hazards

## Partnering with NWS

- xmACIS *(NWS Field Office Use)*
**Applied Climate Information System**
**Data query tool for NWS local climate**
**      ****research/local product development, **
**      ****and to answer customer climate record**
**      ****inquiries**
**Complete historical climate database **
**      ****with near real-time update**

**Partnering with NWS**

- NOWData (Public Use)
**Self-service tool**
**Subset of xmACIS**
**Free, limited access**
**Current year and Normals**
**Portal for ACIS and **
**       ****NCDC information**

- http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv

## Partnering with Federal Agencies

- AgACIS *(Custom NRCS data and products)*

- http://agacis.rcc-acis.org/

## Partnering with RISAs

- http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/index.shtml

## Partnering with NWS/NCDC/Private Industry

- ThreadEx *(Open Use)*
**Consistent daily temperature and ****precipitation extremes**

**Partnering with NWS/NCDC/Private Industry**

- http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/

- Likely to be a several different sites

## Partnering in Data

**Regional Data Network from the High Plains RCC**

**Partnering in Data**

- http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/fpa/

- http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/awdn/

## Partnering with NWS/NCDC

- WxCoder III *(COOP Use)**  *
**Internet observation entry system**

**Partnering with NWS/NCDC**

- http://acis.dri.edu/wxcoder/

- http://acis.dri.edu/wxcoder/

## Serving as Centers of Data

**Historical climate data essential but not sufficient**
- Past to present to future
- Expand thinking beyond climate .... ecological, social and economic data
**Data encompass more than observations**
**Quality, quantity, scale, uncertainty**
**Climate to weather and back again**
**Decisions do not obey arbitrary time bounds**
**	****Decision Support instead of raw values**** **

## Enhanced Consistency

- 2007  01	01	53	36	44.5 0.08
- 2007  01	02	39	31	35	 0.00
- 2007  01	03	49	35	42	 0.00
- 2007  01	04	57	44	50.5 0.02
- 2007  01	05	57	50	53.5	 0.95
- 2007  01	06	56	41	48.5	 0.29
- 2007  01	07	43	32	37.5	 0.13
- 2007  01	08	44	30	37	 0.15
- 2007  01	09	34	28	31	 0.05
- 2007 01	10	29	22	25.5	      T

**CLIMOD product: Daily Data ****	****	****  ****	****	**
**   ****Month:       January 2007**
**	****	****	****	**
** **_**Day  Max  Min  Avg  Precip**__**	**_
-    1	    53    36     45	 0.00
-    2	    39    31	35	 0.00
-    3	    49    35	42	 0.00
-    4	    57    44	51	 0.03
-    5	    57    50	54	 0.95
-    6	    56    41	49	 0.28
-    7	    43    32	38	 0.13
-    8      44    30	37	 0.15
-    9	    34    28	31	 0.05
-  10	    29    21	25	 0.02

- DY MAX MIN AVG WTR  ==================
- 1     53     36    45  0.08
- 2     39     31    35  0.00
- 3     49     35    42  0.00
- 4     57     44    51  0.03
- 5     57     50    54  0.95
- 6     56     41    49  0.28
- 7     43     32    38  0.13
- 8     44     30    37  0.15
- 9     34     28    31  0.05
- 10   29     21    25  0.02

**State Climate Office**

**NWS LCD**

## Partnering with NWS/NCDC

- Datzilla *(Partner Use)*
**Data discrepancy reporting**
**400 registered NOAA users**

**Partnering with NWS/NCDC**

- http://datzilla.srcc.lsu.edu/datzilla/

## Enhanced Integration of Networks

- ASOS

## Enhanced Integration of Networks

- Add Coop

## Enhanced Integration of Networks

- ASOS

- Add MADIS

## EnhancedData Quality

- EnhancedData Quality

- HPRCC  SRT

- IDW

- TMax

- TMin

## Partnering in support of HCN-M

## Partnering with State Climatologists

**Partnering with State Climatologists**

- Hybrid Coop-CoCoRaHS Precip Map

## Partnering with State Climatologists

**Partnering with State Climatologists**

- Infrastructure
- Data
- Stakeholders
- Local expertise
-        NCDC/AASC Grant
-        State Climatologists working
-        with RCCs to explore
-        Reference Climate Networks -
-        CRN & HCN-M

## Partners with NIDIS

## “Getting information off the Internet is like taking a drink from a fire hydrant.”

**“**Getting information off the Internet is like taking a drink from a fire hydrant.”

- - *Mitchell Kapor, founder of Lotus Development Corp.*

## On the forefront of climate to decision making

**Build upon acquired stakeholder trust**
- Trust the team not a particular player
**Shared information, tools and solutions**
**Funding will continue to be at a premium**
**Proactive, evolutionary approaches**
**Grounded in tried and true methods**
**Understand changing hazards, consequences, adaptations and assets**
**challenges *****and***** opportunities**

## Slide 26

## A “Dynamic” Tool Example

- Potential for expansion to go from climate to weather and back again!

- Potential utility for climate change impact assessment on ground and estuary water quality

## http://adapt-n.eas.cornell.edu/crops/

## Partnering in Applied Research

***RCC-AASC -NCDC***** **
**Trend Identification in Twentieth-Century U.S. Snowfall: The Challenges  **Kenneth E. Kunkel,  Michael A. Palecki,  Kenneth G. Hubbard,  David A. Robinson,  Kelly T. Redmond, and David R. Easterling *Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology*
***RCC-RCC***
**SERVICES: A Modern Applied Climate Information System **Kenneth G. Hubbard,  Arthur T. DeGaetano, and Kevin D. Robbins *Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society*
***RCC-RISA***
**Winter Orographic Precipitation Ratios in the Sierra Nevada—Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations and Hydrologic Consequences **Michael Dettinger,  Kelly Redmond, and Daniel Cayan *Journal of Hydrometeorology ** *
*	*

**HPRCC**
**Quality Control of Weather Data during Extreme Events **Jinsheng You and Kenneth G. Hubbard *Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology*
**NRCC**
**Spatial Interpolation of Daily Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature Based on Meteorological Model Analyses and Independent Observations **Arthur T. DeGaetano and Brian N. Belcher *Journal Applied Meteorology and Climatology*
**WRCC**
**Methodology and Results of Calculating Central California Surface Temperature Trends: Evidence of Human-Induced Climate Change?**John R. Christy,  William B. Norris,  Kelly Redmond, and Kevin P. Gallo *J. Climate*
**MRCC**
**Storm Precipitation in the United States. Part I: Meteorological Characteristics **Michael A. Palecki,  James R. Angel, and Steven E. Hollinger *Journal of Applied Meteorology*
**SRCC**
**Hurricane Ivan's Impact Along the Northern Gulf of Mexico **B. Keim et al.** **EOS, Trans American Geophysical Union.
**SERCC**
**Atmospheric Circulation and Inland Flooding in Twentieth Century North Carolina, USA: Implications for Climate Change Impacts?**** **P. Robinson, Natural Hazards

## The Tag

**Kunkel**

**DeGaetano**

**McGuirk**

##         A preliminary:  Applications as forecasts

**        ****A preliminary:  Applications as **_**forecasts**_
**An implicit assumption that has pervaded much of applied climatology**
**	****Past is Prologue**
**	****	****Past statistics = Future statistics**
**	****The decision that uses the information is about the **_**future**_
**	****Therefore, past values often de facto **_**forecasts**_
**	****	****Not explicitly recognized as such**
**	****Past is considered reliable guide to the future**
**	****Climate stationarity is implicit in this assumption**
**	****Huge societal investments ($B, $$B, $$$B)**

##               What is changing?

**              ****What is changing?**
**Many of the underlying issues remain the same, **
**	****but what is changing is the ****context****.**
**Changes in climate (the physical system)**
**Changes in the understanding of climate**
**Changes in needs for climate information**
**	****	****Old, familiar needs**
**	****	****New needs, new applications, more sophisticated applications**

## RCC Core Characteristics

- Regional climate expertise-climate has a strong regional character; RCC scientists can address not only what is happening but why
- Provision of climate information to broad user community-not focused on a narrow range of users
- Focus on understanding of interactions between climate and society/natural environment
- Interpretation of climate data and observations
- National in scope
- Mission pursued continuously for ~20 years
- Limited resources

## Examples of Climate Information

## National Map of Standardized Precipitation Index

## Slide 36

## Operational Soil Moisture Monitoring in Midwest

## Relevance and Challenge

- Soil moisture conditions are single most important factor affecting Midwestern crop yields
- There is no uniform soil moisture monitoring network
- Operational soil moisture model was developed in 1989 and used since then to provide daily-updated maps and tables of soil moisture status
- Uses daily precipitation and temperature data from NWS cooperative observer network
- Kunkel, K.E., 1990:  Operational soil moisture estimation for the Midwestern United States.  *J. Appl. Meteor.*, **29**, 1158-1166.

## Slide 39

## Estimating Risk of West Nile Virus Infection in Illinois

## Questions Still Remain.......

- ?

**Questions Still Remain.......**

## Culex Pipiens

- In Illinois (and probably much of northern U.S.), the white-spotted (Culex restuans) and the northern house (Culex pipiens) mosquitoes appear to be primary vectors for maintaining the transmission cycle
- The white-spotted mosquito, an early season species, bites birds but not mammals
- The northern house mosquito, a late season species, will bite both birds and mammals

## Crossover behavior

- What is of interest is the time when the mosquito population “crosses over” from an abundance of white-spotted to an abundance of northern house species.
- The observations indicate considerable interannual variability in the crossover date
- The following graph shows that it ranges from early July (day of year 190) to mid-September (day of year 255)

## Slide 44

## Crossover-Climate Indices

- We investigated whether climate indices could be developed to predict crossover date.
- Two simple linear models were found to have predictive value (explaining more than 60% of the variance):
- 		Degree day model using a base of 63°F
- 		Tmax exceedance model using a threshold of
- 			 81°F

## Application

- A method for producing probabilistic forecasts of crossover date was developed for use during the warm season.
- This method uses historical climate data essentially as scenarios of future conditions.
- A single forecast uses observed data up to current date and then appends data from one year of the historical record to produce a scenario of a complete year’s worth of data.
- Repeat for all years from 1900 to last year
- Results disseminated on Midwestern Regional Climate Center web site

## Slide 47

## RCC Central Mission

- Provision of relevant and useful climate information
- Focused on regional climate-sensitive activities
- Based on an understanding of the relationship between climate and physical and socio-economic conditions.

## RCCs: A Unique Institution

- Network is national in extent – 50 states covered
- Approximate alignment with key regional climate features and sensitivities
- Scientific expertise on regional characteristics
- Repository of regional climate datasets
- Uniquely positioned to monitor and interpret regional climate anomalies
- Regional presence, credibility and trust

## Future of the Regional Climate Center Program

**Historical rationale and mission still very relevant and applicable**
**Climate change as a new and challenging dimension – especially adaptation**
**Leveraging of resources with regional players on regional problems**
**Facilitation of a continuous public dialogue on critical climate issues **
**It’s not just climate:  Joint identification of solution paths to address unprecedented complex multi-stressor issues**
**A growth area:  Ecological services and environmental constraints**
**A near-term leadership opportunity:**
**Harnessing a quarter century of experience and expertise to help shape**
**a suite of climate services adequate for 21****st**** Century needs**

## QUESTIONS?

- Dr. Dennis Todey, Acting Director High Plains Regional Climate Center University of Nebraska Lincoln Dennis.Todey@noaa.gov
- Mr. Steven D. Hilberg, Director Midwestern Regional Climate Center University of Illinios, ISWS Steven.Hilberg@noaa.gov
- Dr. Arthur T. DeGaetano, Director Northeast Regional Climate Center Cornell University Arthur.DeGaetano@noaa.gov

- Dr. Peter Robinson, Director Southeast Regional Climate Center University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Peter.Robinson@noaa.
- Dr. Kevin Robbins, Director         Southern Regional Climate Center Louisiana State University Kevin.Robbins@noaa.gov
- Dr. Timothy J. Brown, Director       Western Regional Climate Center   Desert Research Institute Timothy.Brown@noaa.gov
- Dr. Kelly T. Redmond Deputy Director & Regional Climatologist WRCC Kelly.Redmond@noaa.gov