# Presentation: 742369

## Building on Our Successes in Aviation Safety for the Next Decade	 

**Dr. Elbert W. (Joe) Friday, University of Oklahoma**
**Dr. Paul D. Try, Senior Vice President, Science and Technology Corporation**

## THE GREY BEARDS SPEAK

- Tremendous conference
- All to be commended for your diligence, commitment, and dedication to this critical issue
- Your involvement should not end today
- Your work will save lives

## Conference Goal & Objectives

**To Improve the System of Volcanic Ash Risk Mitigation**

_**System:**_
-   Observations
- 	In situ
- 	Remote sensing
- 		Satellite
- 		Radar
- 		Other ground based systems (IR, LIDAR, Infrasound)
- Alerts to support immediate actions
- Prediction to support planning and operations (air and ground)
- Verification and validation
- Supporting R&D
- Education/Training
- Partnerships
- International (Formats & Standards)

## Conference Objectives

**Identify Requirements and Needed Research & Development**
**	****	****	****	****(Requirements)**

- a) Observation – Alert:
- 	_5 minute reporting_ into Aviation system (e.g., SIGMET, etc.)
- 	Key Initial Required Elements for Aviation in Standard Format:
- 	(Eruption; Max Plume Ht; Speed & Direction of Movement)
- b) Prediction – Planning:
- 	4D Forecast Model Output (Validated with Uncertainties Depicted)
- 	(Via NOTAMs and Graphical into Aviation System & the Cockpit )
- c) Presentation  KISAC  (Simple, Accurate, and Consistent)
- 	Coding issues
- 	Forecast content
- 	How is uncertainty presented?

## Conference Objectives

**Identify Requirements and Needed Research & Development**
**	****	****	****  ****(Research and Development)**

- Overall Priority R&D Needs:
- a) Observation – Alert: _5 minute reporting_
- 	Improved Satellite
- 	    Methods (current) & Sensors (future e.g, GOES-R/ SO2 & Lightning))
- 	Improved Volcano Monitoring Communications
- 	Develop Simplified Rapid Alerting Techniques
- b) Prediction – Modeling:
- 	Develop improved source terms & ash concentration threshold output
- 	Define plume boundaries
- 	Improve ensemble techniques
- 	Examine Fallout plot analogue

## Conference Objectives

**2. Match Operational Needs to R&D**

**“****Waiting for the Best Solution is the Enemy of Operational Progress”**

- 5 min –
- 	Near Term – Simple procedures and Solutions
- 		Improved Volcano Communication & Satellite/Radar Detection
- 	Mid/Far Term – Added Sensors/Equipment

- Example:

- Conference identified significant number of issues --
-    Now need to link these and prioritize and develop action plan for implementation.

## Conference Objectives

**3. Develop a Roadmap for Education and Training**
- Education and Training – For both Sources and Users (Volcanologists/Meteorologists & Aviation FSS/Aircrews)
- 	( DVD, WWW, Visits (anniversary of major event), 		Schoolhouse, Capacity Building, etc.,)
- Educate the producer of the critical information – ensure the awareness of the critical needs of the aviation community
- Educate the users of the information – the aviation community must have an understanding of the strengths and limitations of the volcanologists and meteorologists.
- Efforts should be made to educate the funding agencies of the importance of this activity.

## Conference Objectives

**4. Develop Framework for Broader Partnerships**
-   International and Agency Partnerships –
- 	Implement within WMO/ICAO Formats and Standards
- 	Shared Agency Implementation Responsibilities