# Presentation: 730070

## Short-Term and Long-Term

***Outlook for Energy Markets***

**Guy Caruso**
**Administrator, Energy Information Administration**
**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**Fueling the Future: Energy Policy in New England**
**December 2, 2005**
**Boston, MA**

##  Trends in New England Energy Consumption, 1989-2001 (quadrillion Btu)

** ****Trends in New England Energy Consumption, 1989-2001 (quadrillion Btu)**

**Natural Gas**

**Petroleum**

**Coal**

**Renewable Energy**

- State Energy Data System

## New England’s Energy Picture in 2001

**Major Energy Sources Consumed by Share**

**Petroleum40%**

**Natural Gas 24%**

**Nuclear 8%**

**Renewables5%**

**Coal             23%**

| New England |  | United States |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 4 quadrillion Btu | Total Energy Consumption | 96 quadrillion Btu |
| 257 million Btu | Consumption per Capita | 338 million Btu |
| $35 billion | Total Energy Expenditures | $694 billion |
| $2,473 | Expenditures per Capita | $2,433 |

**New England’s Energy Picture in 2001**

- State Energy Data System

**Petroleum52%**

**Renewables10%**

**Coal  6%**** **

**Natural Gas 22%**

**Nuclear****10%**

**New England**

**United States**

## Characteristics of Households in New England in 2001

**Fuel Oil****50%**

**Electricity 9%**

**Natural Gas 35%**

**Main Space Heating Fuel**

**Natural Gas 56%**

**Fuel Oil 7%**

**Other 3%**

**LPG 5%**

**Electricity 29%**

| New England |  | United States |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 5.4 million | Number of Households | 107 million |
| 54 percent | With Natural Gas Access | 73 percent |
| 59 percent | Using Air-Conditioning | 76 percent |
| 29 percent | LIHEAP-Eligible | 32 percent |

**Characteristics of Households in New England in 2001**

- Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2001

**LPG 2%**

**Other 4%**

**New England**

**United States**

## Major Events and World Oil Prices

**1970-2004**

**dollars per barrel**

## Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Crude Oil Production

**Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Crude Oil Production**

**Shut In Capacity**

**WTI Crude Oil Price**

**thousand barrels per day**

**dollars per barrel**

- History

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

- Projections

## Shut-In Gulf Coast Refinery Capacity

**Shut-In Gulf Coast Refinery Capacity**

**Shut In Capacity**

**Retail Diesel Price**

**thousand barrels per day**

**cents per gallon**

**Retail Gasoline Price**

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

## Tight Global Markets Result in High Crude Oil Prices

**Tight Global Markets Result in High Crude Oil Prices**

**2005 dollars per barrel**

**million barrels per day**

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

## World Oil Demand Growth(million barrels per day)

- *Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

**3.2%**

**1.6%**

**2.2%**

## World Oil Demand Growth(million barrels per day)

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Petroleum Products Demand Growth (thousand barrels per day)

**3.5%**

**-0.8%**

**2.2%**

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

## Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Natural Gas Production

**Shut In Capacity**

**Henry Hub Price ***

**Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Natural Gas Production**

- * Trading on Henry Hub suspended from 9/23 – 10/6

**billion cubic feet per day**

**dollars per thousand cubic feet**

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Natural Gas Spot Prices(dollars per thousand cubic feet)

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

## World Oil Price, 1970-2025

**(2003 dollars per barrel)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

**$27.73**

**$30.31**

**$48.00**

## U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2025

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**Petroleum**

**Nonhydropower Renewables**

**Hydropower**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Petroleum Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**U.S. Petroleum Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,**
**1960-2025 (million barrels per day)**

**56%**

**58%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2025

**(2003 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

**$4.98**

**$5.32**

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2025 (trillion cubic feet)**

**15%**

**20%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## Major Sources of Incremental Natural Gas Supply,

**2003-2025 (trillion cubic feet)**

**Growth in Alaskan Production**

**Growth in**
**Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Growth in LNG Imports**

**2003 Production (all sources)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2025(trillion cubic feet)

- History

**Industrial*******

**Electric Generators**

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Transportation****

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

-  * Includes lease and plant fuel

- ** Includes pipeline fuel

## U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1970-2025(trillion cubic feet)

- History

- Projections

**Canada**

**Liquefied Natural Gas**

**Mexico**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1970-2025

**(billion kilowatthours)**

**Petroleum**

**Renewables**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

**Oil**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**38%**

**25%**

**8%**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**24%**

**5%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

- History

- Projections

## World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

**Mature Market **
**Economies**

**Transitional Economies**

**Emerging **
**Economies**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**46%**

**42%**

**12%**

**Share of**
**World **
**Total**

- History

- Projections

##  World Oil Consumption and Production, 2002, 2010, and 2025 (million barrels per day)

**Consumption**

**Production**

**OPEC**
**Transitional Economies**
**Other**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**78.2**

**94.6**

**119.2**

**78.1**

**94.3**

**118.9**

## World Oil Consumption by Region, 2002, 2015, and 2025(million barrels per day)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**28.7**

**49.4**

**46.3**

**56.9**

**57.0**

**62.2**

**2002**

**2015**

**2025**

## World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2005(billion barrels)

*Oil & Gas Journal*, "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,“ Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004).

**World Total =**
**1,278 Billion Barrels**

## World Natural Gas Consumption by Region,2002, 2015, and 2025 (trillion cubic feet)

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**22.0**

**70.2**

**35.6**

**92.3**

**50.7**

**105.4**

**2002**

**2015**

**2025**

## World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2005, and Cumulative Consumption, 2002-2025 (trillion cubic feet)

**World Natural Gas Reserves =**
**6,040 Trillion Cubic Feet**
**World Cumulative Consumption,**
** ****2002-2025 =**
** ****2,954 Trillion Cubic Feet**

**Reserves**

**Cumulative Consumption, 2002-2025**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*
*Oil & Gas Journal*, "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,“ Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004)

## World Shares of Energy Use for Electricity Generation,2002-2025 (percent)

*International Energy Annual 2003 *and* International Energy Outlook 2005*

- History
- Projections

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2005*****, December 2004**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2005*****, July 2005**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    *****Renewable Fuels Legislation Impact Analysis*****, July 2005*****   ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**