# Presentation: 348425

## Brian McInerneyHydrologistNational Weather ServiceHydrologic OutlookMarch 2005

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Temperature

## DecemberSalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 2.5 degrees warmer than average

## JanuarySalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 5.4 degrees warmer than average

## FebruarySalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 0.5 degrees warmer than average

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Precipitation

## Precipitation

## Utah and neighboring statesSeasonal Precipitation 2005 Water Year

## Western U.S. Precipitation

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Snowpack

## Hydrologic Outlook

## Coal Creek Headwater Snowpack

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Water Supply Forecast

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes

- Much Above Normal
- Above Normal
- Normal
- Below Normal
- Much Below Normal

- March 1st 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
- Utah Area River Basins

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Bear River Basin**

- Logan

- 97%

- Bear River

- Bear Lake

- Woodruff

- 115%

- Ut/Wy
- Stateline

- 112%

- Blacksmith Fork

- Hyrum

- 96%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Weber River Basin**

- Pineview Res.

- 94%

- Gateway

- 110%

- East Canyon Res.

- 106%

- Ogden River

- Lost Creek Res.

- 91%

- Weber River

- Chalk Creek

- 109%

- Oakley

- 111%

- Rockport Res.

- 112%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Six Creeks River Basin**

- Jordan River

- Little Cottonwood Creek

- 132%

- Big Cottonwood Creek

- 139%

- Mill Creek

- 100%

- Parleys Creek

- 84%

- Dell Fk.

- 85%

- City Creek

- 92%

- Emigration Ck.

- 82%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Provo River Basin**

- Utah Lake

- Woodland

- 117%

- Jordanelle Res

- 119%

- Deer Creek Res

- 119%

- American Fork

- 150%

- Castilla

- 110%

- 125%

- Provo River

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Green River Basin**

- Lake Powell Res.

- 108%

- Green River

- 96%

- Price River

- Strawberry Res.

- 127%

- Starvation Res.

- 123%

- Scofield Res.

- 108%

- Colorado River

- Duchesne

- 146%

- Myton

- 170%

- Upper Stillwater

- 152%

- Randlett

- 194%

- Moon Lake

- 147%

- Tabiona

- 124%

- Red Fleet Res.

- 143%

- Flaming Gorge Res.

- 84%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Sevier River Basin**

- Hatch

- 264%

- Kingston

- 236%

- 218%

- Cedar City

- 259%

- Sevier River East Fork

- Piute Res.

- 210%

- Minersville

- 163%

- Beaver River

- Beaver

- 152%

- Clear Creek

- Sevier River

- Sevier

- 159%

- Gunnison

- 168%

- Salina Creek

- Ephraim Creek

- Sevier Lake

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Virgin River Basin**

- Santa Clara River

- Virgin River North Fork

- Virgin River East Fork

- Pine Valley

- 282%

- Littlefield, AZ

- 285%

- Virgin

- 261%

- Hurricane

- 280%

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Long Range Forecast

## El Nino ConditionsJanuary 11th 2005

## El Nino ConditionsLate February,  2005

## Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures 

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Flood Potential

## Increased Flood Potential

- Sevier River Basin

- Virgin River Basin

- South Facing Uinta Mountain Streams

## Spring Climate

- Spring climate will dictate runoff scenario
- Soil moisture is near saturation in the south
- Soil moisture is 2-3 times greater in the north
- This allows a great runoff efficiency
- Cool wet spring will enhance runoff efficiency
- Length of melt window is shortend
- More water into streams and reservoirs
- Analogy of a wet sponge
- Warmer drier spring will reduce water volume
- Lengthen window of melt
- Earlier melt, means more evaporation, infiltration and sublimation
- Less efficient melt process
- Southern Utah is basically guaranteed a normal to above normal volume flow this spring

## Summary

- Excessive snowpack’s remain in the Virgin, Sevier, and Green river basins
- At this time, the flood potential is heightened for these areas
- March looks dry through mid-month
- Weather pattern is either very wet or very dry this year
- Soil moisture is much improved over last year
- Approximately 3-4 weeks remaining of snow collection season
- Southern Utah mountain should expect normal to above runoff volumes
- Wasatch mountains have equal chance of producing above or below normal volumes this spring

## Contact Information

- This presentation can be found at:
- _http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Saltlake/river/presentations_
- Additional Information
- Contact
- Brian McInerney
- Hydrologist
- National Weather Service
- 801-971-2033 c
- brian.mcinerney@noaa.gov