# Presentation: 090515

## Role of Direct Broadcast versus Global Earth Observations in Applied Sciences Research

**NASA Goddard Space Flight Center**
**Greenbelt, Maryland, USA**
- _[shahid.habib@nasa.gov](http://www.esa.ssc.nasa.gov/m2m/model_report.aspx?model_id=101)_
**March 31, 2008**

**Role of Direct Broadcast versus Global Earth Observations in Applied Sciences Research**
***Presented at ***
***International EOS/NPP***
***Direct Readout Meeting**** *
***Bangkok, Thailand***

## Contents

- Changing Planet
- Science and Applications
- Implementation Process
- Examples of using Global and Direct Broadcast Data Products
- Summary

## Earth System Scienceand Applications

- Climate and weather variability can produce year-to-year swings in our economy of plus or minus $100 billion1
- Approximately 90% of presidentially declared disasters in the United States are weather-related1
- Weather affects aviation, air quality, health, ground and marine transportation, defense, agriculture, fisheries, water, energy, construction, tourism, and many other sectors of the economy – _and most of these issues are regional_.
- Our success depends on our ability to provide decision makers with reliable and convincing information.

- 1Data from “Satellite Observations of the Earth’s Environment.  Accelerating the Transition of Research to Operations, NRC report, 2003

## Earth’s Energy Balance

## Increasing Carbon Dioxide

**Increasing Carbon Dioxide**

- Malinkovich cycle attributed to Earth’s orbital anomalies

**5 warmest years:  1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005**

**Measured Surface Temperature the past 150 years**

## Global Temperature Variability

- Every year we pump more than six billion tones of carbon emissions into the air from burning fossil fuel, despite a general consensus that this contributes directly to climate change.

**Global Temperature Variability**

- Sir N. Stern report compares fossil-fuel Based / Climate-Friendly Scenarios

- Ref: Dr. Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard                 World Bank

## Monthly Arctic Sea Ice Extent DeviationsNovember 1978 – December 2004

- Aqua/AMSRE Measurement

## IPCC Report

- Reference: IPCC February 2007 and BBC

**It is **_**very likely**_** that human activities are causing global warming**
***Probable temperature rise by the end of the century will be between 1.8C and 4C (3.2 - 7.2F)***
***Possible temperature rise by the end of the century ranges between 1.1C and 6.4C (2 - 11.5F)***
**Sea levels are**** **_**likely **_**to rise by 28.43cm**
**Arctic summer sea ice is **_**likely**_** to disappear in second half of the century**
**It is very **_**likely**_** that parts of the world will see an increase in the number of heat waves**
**Climate change is **_**likely**_** to lead to increased intensity of tropical storms**

**IPCC Report**

## Is Humankind Carrying outan Uncontrolled Experiment?Global Change:  One of theGreatest Challenges of Our Time

- Is Humankind Carrying outan Uncontrolled Experiment?Global Change:  One of theGreatest Challenges of Our Time

## Earth Science and Applications Themes

**Earth Science and Applications Themes**

**Water and Energy Cycle**
**Atmospheric Composition**
**Carbon Cycle and Ecosystem**
**Climate Variability and Change**
**Weather**
**Earth Surface and Interior**

- _Science Areas_

- _Application Areas_

**Understand changing Earth**
**Learn causes of these changes**
**Response to such changes**
**Impact of such changes**
**Predict such changes ???**

- _Unknowns_

## Do we have a choice? A tangled web  

- Occurrence of Floods

- Contaminated Fresh Water Supply

- Spread of Multiple Infectious Diseases

- Volcanic Eruption

- Aerosol and Dust deposition and suspension

- Breathing problems

**Do we have a choice? A tangled web  **

-  Air Quality

- Public Health

- Earthquake/Tsunami

- Fires

- Severe Weather

-  Electric Grid Outages

-  Shutdown City

**Anthropogenic or Technological**

- Agriculture Efficiency

## Research, Technology & Application Process

**technologies to **
**enable the measurements**

**Develop algorithms **
**and models to **
**interpret the results**

**Research, Technology & Application Process**

**Reformulate scientific questions **
**Readjust research priorities**
**Refine measurement requirements **

**Improve Understanding,**
** ****Increase Prediction**
**Capabilities and apply **
**for **_***societal benefits***_

**Develop scientific questions**
**Define geophysical variables to **
**be measured**

***Research Loop***

## Benefits

**Landsat-7**

**Terra**

**Aqua**

**TRMM**

**Aura**

**QuikScat**

**End User/**
**Decision Maker**

**MODELS**

**Remote Sensing Missions**

**Applied Research Domain**

***Science and Research Products***

***User Specific Operational Products***

- GMAO Atmosphere

- GSFC GOCART_  _

- GISS Model III_  _

***Push***

***Pull***

**Research to Application – R2A**

*Partnership*

## Earth Science Applications - Partnerships

- We partner with operational end users to _**adapt or adopt and demonstrate**_ NASA research results for societal benefits
***NOAA                International Red Cross***
***	******DHS******	******	******BoR******	***
***   ******	******DoD******	******	******Chesapeake Bay Program***
***	******EPA******	******	******EPRI***
***	******USAID******	******	******World Bank***
***   ******	******USFS******	******	******GEO***
***Several International Organizations***
**Public agencies and organizations that have the mandate to serve the public through resource management, environmentally-related predictions and decision making**
*  *

## Problem Solving

**Information**

**Knowledge**

- Reception of intelligence

- Understanding of a science, art or technique

**Models**

- Archived global observations or data sets provide necessary_x0004_

**In situ data**
**Airborne data**
**Historical data**
**Near Real Time Local observations (if available)****_x0004_**

_**Region of Interest**_
- Meso-sacle models
- Regional Observations

_*Boundary Conditions*__x0004_

**Problem Solving**

*Develop Solutions*

**Observations**

**Research Driven**

## We make use of several sensors – Sensor Web

**Terra**
**Aqua**
**Aura**
**TRMM**
**LandSat**
**EO-1**
**GRACE**
**ACE**
**SOHO**

- Malaria
- Rift Valley Fever
- Food Security
- River Forecasting
- Floods/Land Slides
- Air Quality
- Plume Trajectory
- Ground Circulating Currents
- .....
- ......
- Earthquake precursor

## No Single Source Solution

**Research Satellite/sensor**

**No Single Source Solution**

- MODIS 250m Nadir

- Landsat 15m
- SPOT 2.5-20m

**TRMM Precipitation**

- Commercial 1m

- Altimetry

**Research Satellite/sensor**

**IKONOS, QuickBird 0.5m Pan**

**Research Satellite/sensor**

- CALIPSO 30-60mverticle and horizontal 333m and vertical 30-60m
- CLOUSAT 500m verticle and 1.4 KM horizontal

*Digital Elevation Model*

*Imager*

*Atmospheric Profile*

## Tropospheric Ozone Transcontinental Transport

**Global maps of tropospheric ozone showing effects**
**of pollution in the Northern Hemisphere in summer and biomass burning in Southern Hemisphere in spring**

**Tropospheric Ozone Transcontinental Transport**

**Monthly average July and October 2005**

- Tropospheric (lower atmosphere) ozone is a toxic pollutant and an EPA criteria pollutant.  As industrialization increases, pollutants flow from one country to another and from one continent to another.
- For the first time we are getting a clear picture of this ozone transport by combining ozone measurements of the stratosphere and the total column to produce the tropospheric amount.

- Pollution from North America reaches Europe

- Pollution from China reaches North America

- Pollution from Africa and South America fills the South Atlantic

- Pollution from Africa spreads to Australia

- P. Newman/GSFC

## Transcontinental Dust Storms

**Transcontinental Dust Storms**

**Taklamakan Desert, China**

**Beijing, China**

**Asian Dust  & microbes?  Long Range Transport  **

## AIR NOW– Adapting MODIS Aerosol Data

**AIR NOW– Adapting MODIS Aerosol Data**

***NASA-LaRC/USEPA ***
***Air Quality***
***Applications Group***

- Relate MODIS AOD
- observations (red dots)
- to EPA ground station PM
- measurements (black
- time series)

- Evaluate current EPA observational network (posts) as to its ability to show regional aerosol

_*Using MODIS DB for regional air quality assessment   *_
- Finding correlation between MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOD) and EPA ground based measurements

- Remer/GSFC

## South Africa’s Fire Early Warning System

**South Africa’s Fire Early Warning System**

**NASA’s **
**Terra**
**and **
**Aqua**

**Direct Broadcast**
**Receiving Station**
**Satellite Application Centre (SAC)**
**South Africa**

**GeoDatabase**

**Advanced Fire Information System (AFIS) **
**http://wamis.co.za**

**Rapid Response System**
**SAC(CSIR)**
**MODIS Fire-Algorithm**

**ESA’s**
**MSG**

**Direct Broadcast**
**Receiving Station**
**National Weather Service**
**South Africa**

**Weather Service, South Africa **
**MSG Fire-Algorithm (Philip Frost)**

**Active Fire Locations**
**(Text files)**

**University of Maryland**

**SAC **

**GeoDatabase **
**Web Fire Mapper**
**(http://maps.geog.****umd.edu)**

**Real-time feed**

**Web Fire Mapper **
**maps.geog.umd.edu**

**Rapid Response System**
**SMS/Text messages**

**E-mail Alerts**

**End users**

**Polar Orbit**

**Geostationary**

## Mekong Malaria in Tak, Thailand

**2-Year Prediction of Malaria Cases Based on Environmental Parameters (temperature, precipitation, humidity, vegetation index)**

**Satellite Vegetation Data used for Insecticide Planning**

**Mekong Malaria in Tak, Thailand**

- Vector Habitat
- Transmission
- Risk Prediction

- Surface Hydrology
- Climate Prediction

**Field data**

**Aqua**

**TRMM**

**Terra**

**Landsat**

- Kiang/GSFC

## SERVIR

**Disasters**** (Monitoring of earthquakes, fires, flooding, volcanoes, weather extremes)**
**Human Health**** (Harmful Algal Bloom monitoring)**
**Water**** (Flood monitoring)**
**Oceans**** (Harmful Algal Blooms / SST monitoring)**
**Weather**** (nowcasts; 24-/48-hour forecasts)**

**SERVIR**

- SERVIR Test bed at MSFC

- GUATEMALA

- EL SALVADOR

- HONDURAS

- COSTA RICA

- PANAMA

- BELIZE

- MEXICO

- NICARAGUA

## SERVIR -- Africa

**SERVIR -- *****Africa***

- New partnership  with MSFC, GSFC, USAID, RCMRD of Kenya, CATHLAC of Panama
- To use TRMM precipitation products and GIS tools to build potential flood maps for Lake Victoria Region (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) – home to 30 million people and over 175,000 are effected due to devastating floods
- Use MODIS DB  products to build actual flood maps  (Now Malindi ground station most likely will not provide the data feed to RCMRD in Nairobi – we will have to use the Rapid Response System)

- The Broglio Space Center is located just north of Malindi on the Indian Ocean.

- East Africa flood potentil map from GHM-Flood for May 23, 2007.  Orange triangles designate flood risk areas.

## Landslide Susceptibility Map

**-1: Water Bodies**
**0:   Permanent Snow/Ice**
**1:  Very Low Susceptibility**
**2:   Low Susceptibility **
**3:   Moderate Susceptibility**
**4:   High Susceptibility (yellow)**
**5:   Very High Susceptibility (orange)**

**Landslide Susceptibility Map**

- Hong et al., Submitted to J. of Natural Hazards

- Surface controlling factors

- Percentage of Grid Boxes in Each Category

## Global  Rainfall-induced Landslide Forecast System

**Global  Rainfall-induced Landslide Forecast System**

- Rainfall Map  Intensity-Duration  Susceptibility/  Landslide Warning

**TRMM Near Real-Time Rainfall at location 76.875 W, 4.125 N, April 13, ****Columbia****  **    1) the last 24 hour rainfall accumulation > 103mm
-     2) The Susceptibility Map shows high or very high susceptibility
**News Report:** 13 Apr 2006, **At least 34 people missing in Colombian mudslide**

## Invasive Species Management

**NASA and USGS developing a National Invasive Species Forecasting System.  This uses MODIS data, aerial imagery, and ground data of various resolutions to map biological resources.**
**Strong partnership with DoI, USDA and USGS**

_***Cheat Grass  (Bromis tectorum***__*)*_
***Reduces soil moisture***
***Increase fire loading***
***Re-establishes early in burnt areas***

- Trending & modeling

- Hot spots of native biodiversity
- Distribution of non-native species
- Potential spread of invasive species

- Economic and environmental risk assessment
- Priorities for control and Containment

- Data fromMODIS, LandSat, EO-1

- Decision Support

- Schnase/GSFC

## Detection of Harmful Algal Blooms

- Primary goal of current research:  Detect these phenomena and determine potential linkages to human activities, such as enhanced nutrient inputs in coastal waters

**Detection of Harmful Algal Blooms**

- Steven E. Lohrenz  (Univ. of Southern Miss.)

*Red Tide Bloom off West Florida*

*SeaWiFS Satellite Image Showing Drifter *
*Track During HAB Event*

## Recent Events   

**Recent Events   **

*81 deaths, several hundred thousand displaced*

***TRMM flood response -Tropical Storm Noel, October 26-31, 2007***

**Products provided to Minister of Environment and Head of Disasters in Dominican Republic through NASA SERVIR**

**MODIS and EO-1 showed fire moving AWAY from Tijuana, There was no need to continue evacuation planning per Police Command Center in Mexico**

***MODIS and Hyperion imagery of October 21-29, 2007 S. California fires***

- MODIS (VIS bands)

- Hyperion (SWIR bands)

- Reported through SERVIR (CATAHLAC) in Panama

- (Cumulative rainfall in mm)

**Notes:**
This slide illustrates the usefulness of the PR in resolving finer structures in the storm’s inner core and for determining the vertical structure of the storm. In this case, reflectivities greater than 40 dBZ are getting up to about 8 km, well above the freezing level and indicating possible graupel production.

## Summary

- We must conduct Science for Society -- Applications
- Majority of the societal problems are regional in nature
- Source or cause may be far from the area under study
- Both long term data sets play a vital role in establishing boundary conditions
- Direct Readout offers an excellent source for investigating regional or meso-scale problems
- Direct Readout provides a great opportunity to many nations where large space investments may not be easily achievable
- It is an essential capability for World community to build capacity and apply space observations for the societal benefits