# Presentation: 014053

## Energy Outlook:

**Administrator**
**Energy Information Administration**

**American Trucking Association**
**Diesel Fuel Conservation Strategies Workshop**
**Arlington, VA**
**June 19, 2008**

***Energy Outlook:***
***Forecasting Diesel Fuel Prices***

## WTI crude oil prices are expected to remain high

**WTI crude oil prices are expected to remain high**

***Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, June 2008**

**dollars per barrel**

- History

- Projections

## World oil consumption growth expected to accelerate in 2008 and 2009

***Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, June 2008**

**annual growth, millions of barrels per day**

## Global oil market balance is expected to loosen slightly in 2009

***Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, June 2008**

- History

- Projections

**annual growth, millions of barrels per day**

## OPEC spare capacity has remained low, with most OPEC countries producing at capacity

***Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, June 2008**

**millions of barrels per day**

- Projections

- History

## OECD commercial stocks decline from record highs to near-normal levels

***Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, June 2008**

**Change from 5-year average, million barrels**

- History

- Projections

## U.S.  4-week average total distillate demand growth has been negative

***Weekly Petroleum Status Report***

**Year-to-year 4-week average growth**

## U.S. 4-week average total distillate imports are lower this year than the past 2 years

***Weekly Petroleum Status Report***

**thousand barrels per day**

## Distillate stocks are currently at the bottom of the average range

**Distillate stocks are currently at the bottom of the ****average**** range**

***Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, June 2008**

**million barrels**

- History

- Projections

**normal inventory range**

## European distillate demand continues to grow

**European distillate demand continues to grow**

**International Energy Agency, June 2008**

- thousand barrels per day

- thousand barrels per day

## OECD European commercial distillate stocks are at  above-average levels

**OECD European commercial distillate stocks are at  above-average levels**

**International Energy Agency, June 2008**

**million barrels**

**normal inventory range**

## Chinese oil demand shows strong yearly growth in recent years

**Projection**

**International Energy Agency, June 2008**

**million barrels per day**

## Much of China’s oil demand growth in the last 2 years has come from gasoline and diesel

**BP World Statistics 2007**

**annual growth, millions of barrels per day**

## OECD Pacific commercial distillate stocks are atbelow-average levels

**OECD Pacific commercial distillate stocks are at****below-average levels**

**International Energy Agency, June 2008**

**million barrels**

**normal inventory range**

## 2008 first quarter U.S. distillate exports are unusually high

**thousand barrels per day**

## U.S. diesel prices are expected to decline, but remain high

**Crude Oil**

**On-Highway Diesel**

**Wholesale**
**Diesel**

***Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, June 2008**

**thousand barrels per day**

- History

- Projections

## Conclusions

**Crude oil prices are expected to remain very high for the foreseeable future**
**Strong growth in the global demand for diesel fuel have added to retail diesel price pressures**
**Retail diesel fuel prices are expected to remain well above $4 a gallon through at least 2009**

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2008*****, March 2008, full report, June 2008**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2007*****, May 2007, next update June 2008**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**	****May 2008**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48               ****	****Federal Outer Continental Shelf,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2007***
***    ******Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate ******	******Security Act of 2007*****,  April 2008**
***    ***
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**www.eia.doe.gov**