# Presentation: 829312

## RTO-37: En route User Deviation Assessment

**	****Mark Klopfenstein*****	**** Phil Smith****
**	****Dennis Gallus*****	****	**** Roger Chapman****
**	****Christine Lambert*****	**** Jodi Obradovich****
**	****Diane Bonham***
*******Metron, Inc. **
****Cognitive Systems Engineering, Inc.**

- 12/7/1999

## This work was performed under contract to
 Honeywell Technology Center 
(PO# 9138312) 
and 
funded by NASA’s AATT program 
(Prime Contract # NAS2-98005) 

-  Honeywell Technology Center
- (PO# 9138312)
- and
- funded by NASA’s AATT program
- (Prime Contract # NAS2-98005)

- Funding Source

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## Questions Addressed

- What problems in terms of flight deviations and delays are regularly 	occurring in the NAS?
- Where, when and how often are they occurring?
- What is the impact of these problems?

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## Post-Operations Evaluation Tool:Data Sources

-   Archived ETMS data (FAA ATA-200)
-   Complete Flight Plan and Flight 			Amendments
-   Actual flight track
-   Sectors transited

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## Other Data Sources

-   ATCSCC log data
-   System restrictions and advisories
-   Miles in Trail
-   Ground stops
-   Ground delay programs

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## Goal

- Develop techniques to identify, quantify, and understand the nature of 	inefficiencies in NAS
- Apply these techniques on a large-scale

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## Time Periods

- 11-25-1998
- Day before Thanksgiving (historically the busiest day of the year)
- 12-25-1998
- Christmas day (historically the slowest day of the year)
- 1-8-1999
- Bad winter day (widespread snowstorms, many GDPs)
- 1-14-1999
- An unpredictably bad winter day (snow and icing in Northeast as far south as Richmond, no GDPs, but many ground stops)
- 5-18-1999
- Bad spring day (widespread thunderstorms)

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## Time Periods (cont.)

- April 24-30, 1999
- July 1-31, 1999
- September 20-26, 1999
- October 4-10, 1999

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## Flights Considered in Study

- Metron, Inc. <date/time>

## Limitations and Caveats

- Bad data filtering (such as negative times)
- Inconsistent reporting of predicted off 	times
- Display System Replacement (DSR) 	transition restrictions
- Weather impacts
- Planned air times that include padding

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## Worst Departure Delays for July 12th – July 18th 1999, by Arrival Airport, Scheduled Arrival Bin, Arrival Fix Combinations with more than 48 Flights

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## Ground Delay Programs between7-12-99 and 7-18-1999

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## Worst  Air Time Performances for July 12-18, 1999, by Arrival Airport, Scheduled Arrival Bin, Arrival Fix Combinations with more than 48 Flights

- Metron, Inc. <date/time>

## Rank Order Correlations of Air Time Delays Across Different Times of the Year

- Metron, Inc. <date/time>

## Inefficiencies as Detected by Data Mining Tools

- Holding
- Significant Reroutes

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## Arrival fix/time of day combinations that were most often held in the air (7/12/99-7/18/99)

- Metron, Inc. <date/time>

## Rank Order Correlations of Percent Holding Across Different Times of the Year

- Metron, Inc. <date/time>

## Flights Filed into Different Arrival Fixes at ATL 

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## Routes Filed into ATL through all 4 Arrival Fixes

- Metron, Inc. <date/time>

## Filed and Actual Routes for Flights Filed Over HUSKY

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## Data on Some Individual Flights into LOGEN

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## Flights Over LOGEN that were Held

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## Significantly Rerouted Flights

- Track length similarity
- shorter (< 5%)
- same (within ± 5%)
- long (between 5-15%)
- longer (> 15%)
- Spatial similarity
- Spatial similarity algorithm

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## Spatial Similarity Examples

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## Significantly Rerouted Flights

- Shaded area represent those flights that were significantly rerouted (36.6% overall)

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## Percent of flights significantly rerouted by time of year

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## Reroutes by time of day

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## Correlation of Reroutes by Arrival Airport, Scheduled Arrival Bin, Arrival Fix Combinations 

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## Rerouted flights by (CONUS) centers along filed flight route between 7/12/99 and 7/18/99

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## Rerouted flights by en route sectors along filed flight route (top 20 CONUS sectors) between 7/12/99 and 7/18/99

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## Rerouted flights by airways along filed flight route (top 15) between 7/12/99 and 7/18/99

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## Inefficiencies as Indicated by Manual Detailed Analyses

- Bottlenecks along Select Route Segments
- Miles in Trail (MIT) Restrictions
- Diversions in the NAS

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## Bottlenecks along Select Route Segments

- Describe briefly what we did?

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## Flights Flying J80 at Same Time as 2200-2300Z Arrivals at CVG

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## Departure Delays of other Flights using J80

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## Miles-in-Trail Restrictions

- What is the frequency of miles in trail?
- What were the reasons for these restrictions?
- What destinations were most often impacted?
- How many flights were impacted?

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## Number of MIT restrictions by day

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## Weekly trends of MIT

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## MIT by Reason & Affected Destination

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## Flights Impacted by MIT

- On average 13.5 flights were impacted for by each restriction (range 1 to 442)
- ZJX put a 20-mile MIT restriction on ZTL for flights arriving in Atlanta (ATL) between 1215 and 1445 due to weather that affected 60 flights.
- ZID put a 30-mile MIT restriction on ZAU for flights arriving in Atlanta (ATL) between 1745 and 1845 due to weather that affected only 6 flights.
- On average 8.5 flights affected per MIT restriction hour
- On average1332 flights were affected per day
- Ranged from 300 (9 October 1999) to 1912 (28 April 1999) flights affected per day

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## MIT Impacted Flights by Reason & Affected Destination

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## Diversions

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## Diversions by User Class

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## Daily Variation in Diversions

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## Rank-ordered Count of Air Carrier Diversions by Day

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## Diversion Delays

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