# Presentation: 784775

## Nebojša Nakićenović
Vienna University of Technology xx
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx 
naki@iiasa.ac.at

DOE-EPA Workshop “Modeling the Oil Transition", Resources For the Future
 Washington DC, USA  – 20-21 April 2006

- Vienna University of Technology xx
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
- _[naki@iiasa.ac.at](mailto:naki@iiasa.ac.at)_
- DOE-EPA Workshop “Modeling the Oil Transition", Resources For the Future
-  Washington DC, USA  – 20-21 April 2006

- Dynamics of Global Energy Transitions

## Global Energy Challenges

- Access to modern forms of energy
- 	(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)
- Growing demand for *energy services*
- Investment in R&D and deployment
- Security and reliability of supply
- Deep CO2 and GHG reductions

## Slide 3

## “The stone age did not come to
an end because of a lack of stones.”

Sheikh Yamani

*an end because of a lack of stones.”*
- Sheikh Yamani

## Summary of Scenario Characteristics

|  | 1800 | Factor | 1900 | Factor | 2000 | Factor | 2100 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Population
 (billion) | 1 | x1.6 | 1.6 | x3.8 | 6 | x1.2
x2.5 |     7-
15 |
| GDP PPP
(trillion 1990$) | 0.5 |  x4 |  2 | x18 | 36 | <x3
 x18 |    85-530 |
| Primary Energy (EJ) | 13 | x3.3 | 40 | x11 | 440 | x1.1
x2.5 |  500-2500 |
| CO2 Emissions 
(GtC) |    0-
0.3 | x3.0 |   0.5-
1.0 |   x6-
x12 | 6.4 | <0.5
 x5 |   3-
33 |
| Crude Oil P/R (Ratio) | ∞ |    x∞ | 45 | x1.0 | 45 | x0.2
x7.3 |    9-
330 |

## US - Final Energy by Form

**Notes:**
Precisely: You cannot fuel the Internet by coal

## Global Final Energy by FormIIASA IPCC SRES Scenarios

- Global Final Energy by FormIIASA IPCC SRES Scenarios

- 0

- 20

- 40

- 60

- 80

- 100

- 2000

- 2020

- 2040

- 2060

- 2080

- 2100

**Final Energy Shares (%)**

**B2,**

**  **

**A1**

- Grids
- (electricity, gas, district heat, hydrogen)

- Liquids
-                  (oil products, methanol, ethanol)

- Solids (biomass, coal)

## Slide 8

## Historical Oil Prices and in Scenarios

## Brazil – Ethanol Learning Curve

- 0

- 50

- 100

- 150

- 200

- 0

- 10

- 20

- 30

- Cumulative production 10

- 6

- bbl

- Producer price

- Regression

- Oil price

*1978*

*1985*

*1988*

*1990*

*1995*

*Data:*

*Goldenberg*

*, 1996*

- Cumulative

- subsidy

- 1billion $

- 0.6 billion $

*30 % cost reduction*

*for each doubling*

*of cum. production*

- 0

- 50

- 100

- 150

- 200

- 0

- 10

- 20

- 30

- Cumulative production 10

- 6

- bbl

- Producer price

- Regression

- Oil price

*1978*

*1985*

*1988*

*1990*

*1995*

*Data:*

*Goldenberg*

*, 1996*

- Cumulative

- subsidy

- 1billion $

- 0.6 billion $

- 0.3 billion $ ?

*30 % cost reduction*

*for each doubling*

*of cum. production*

- 0

- 50

- 100

- 150

- 200

- 0

- 10

- 20

- 30

- Cumulative production 10

- 6

- bbl

- Producer price

- Regression

- Oil price

*1978*

*1985*

*1988*

*1990*

*1995*

*Data:*

*Goldenberg*

*, 1996*

- Cumulative

- subsidy

- 1billion $

- 0.6 billion $

- 0.3 billion $ ?

*30 % cost reduction*

*for each doubling*

*of cum. production*

- 0

- 50

- 100

- 150

- 200

- 0

- 10

- 20

- 30

- Cumulative production 10

- 6

- bbl

- Oil-equivalent price $/bbl

- Producer price

- Regression

- Oil price

*1978*

*1985*

*1988*

*1990*

*1995*

- Estimated

*30 % cost reduction*

*for each doubling*

*of cum. production*

- Source: Goldemberg, 1996

**?**

- $2billion

- “Buy-Down”

- Source: Grübler, 2002

## Unconventional Fossil Fuels

- 15,000 to 40,000 GtC

- Source: Edmonds, 2005

## Deep Hot Biosphere 500,000 GtC !

## McKelvey Diagram

** **

** **

**Subeconomic**

**Economic**

**Not economic**

**Reserves**

**Resources**

**Unconventional and low-grade**

**occurrences**

**Inferred**

**Measured**

**Indicated**

**Demonstrated**

**Identified Reserves**

**Hypothetical**

**Speculative**

**Probability range (or)**

**Undiscovered Resources**

## Summary of Global Fossil Resources 

- Energy equivalents in ZJ, carbon contents in GtC

**a**** Reserves to be discovered or resources to be developed as reserves**
**b**** Resources base is the sum of reserves and resources**
**c**** Includes natural gas liquids**

**ZJ = Zeta-joule or 10****21**** Joule or thousands of Exajoules**
**Gt C = Giga tonnes or 10****15 ****grams of carbon**

- Source: WEA, 2000

## Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resources Scenario assumptions and utilization levels, in ZJ (1021J)

- Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resources **Scenario assumptions and utilization levels, in ZJ (10****21****J)**

- Table shows which of the categories are deployed in each scenario and compares cumulative use
-  from 1990 to 2100 with historical consumption from 1860 to 1988

## Reserve-to-Production RatiosReserve-to-production-ratio and global resource consumption of natural gas and oil, scenario estimates for the year 2100 compared to values for 1990.  

## Evolution of Global Primary Energy

## Primary Energy Consumption

## Oil – Extraction (3)

## #<number>  Source: David Scott, 2004

**#****  Source: David Scott, 2004**

## Global Energy Assessment:Towards a more Sustainable Future

- The *magnitude**** ***of the change required is *huge*
- The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues *simultaneously*
- A paradigm shift is needed: energy end-use efficiency, renewables, new nuclear and carbon capture and storage.

## naki@iiasa.ac.at

- _[naki@iiasa.ac.at](mailto:naki@iiasa.ac.at)_