# Presentation: 352901

## The Impact of Petroleum Technology Advances on Long-Term Energy Markets

**Energy Information Administration**

**3****rd**** OPEC International Seminar**
**September 12 – 13, 2006**
**Vienna, Austria**

***The Impact of Petroleum Technology Advances on Long-Term Energy Markets***

## Highlights

**Technological advances affect all sectors of the energy market and all regions of the world**
**The competitive, global petroleum industry promotes worldwide technology transfer**
**Technological advances support economic development and growth**
**Technological advances are inevitable but are hard to predict – need is the mother of invention**

## The Past is Prologue

**Past technological advances have affected energy supply, demand, and production costs**
**Past supply-side technology advances:**
**Coal mining**
**Oil and natural gas production**
**Electric generation**
**Past end-use technology advances:**
**Residential and commercial buildings sectors**
**Transportation sector**
**Industrial sector**

## U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Well Success Rates,1970-2005(successful percentage of total wells drilled)

- Development Wells

- Exploratory Wells

*Annual Energy Review 2005*

## Mean Estimate of Ultimately Recoverable U.S. Crude Oil, Year-End 1979 and 2004 (billion barrels)

- U.S. Geological Survey, Minerals Management Service, and Energy Information Administration

## Mean Estimate of Ultimately Recoverable U.S. Natural Gas, Year-End 1979 and 2004(trillion cubic feet)

- U.S. Geological Survey, Minerals Management Service, and Energy Information Administration

## Forms of Technological Progress

**New materials**
**New types of equipment**
**New knowledge**
**New management techniques**

## Why Technological Progress Is Difficult to Identify and Measure

**Most technological progress is incremental.  Small incremental improvements result in large advances over time.**
**Technological progress is often intangible, for example, new knowledge and new management techniques.**
**Technological progress often originates outside the petroleum industry, for examples, improvements in computer equipment and software.**

## World Oil Prices, 1980-2030

**(2004 dollars per barrel)**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

**Reference**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Crude Oil Production and Net Petroleum Imports,

**1990-2030 (million barrels per day)**

**Reference**

**Rapid Technology**

**Slow Technology**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

**Slow Technology**

**Rapid Technology**

**Reference**

## U.S. Total Petroleum Production,

**1990-2030 (million barrels per day)**

**Reference**

**High Price**

**Low Price**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Unconventional Oil Production, 2030(million barrels per day)

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

**59.7**

## OPEC, Non-OPEC, and Unconventional Oil Production,1990-2030 (million barrels per day)

**Non-OPEC Conventional**

**OPEC Conventional**

**Unconventional**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

## World Unconventional Liquids Production, 2005 and 2030(million barrels per day)

**2030**

**2005**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Lower-48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices,

**1990-2030 (2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

**Rapid Technology**
**$5.20**

**Slow Technology**
**$6.36**

**Reference**

- Projections

- History

**$5.92**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Natural Gas Production and Net Imports,

**1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**Reference**

**Rapid Technology**

**Slow Technology**

- Projections

- History

**Reference**

**Rapid Technology**

**Slow Technology**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

**Natural Gas Net Imports in 2030**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

**2004**

## U.S. Lower-48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices,

**1990-2030 (2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

**Reference**

**High Price**

**Low Price**

- Projections

- History

**$5.92**

**$7.71**

**$4.97**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Net Imports of Liquefied Natural Gas,

**1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**Reference**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## Sales of Advanced Technology Light-Duty Vehicles,

**Sales of Advanced Technology Light-Duty Vehicles,**
**2015 and 2030 (thousand vehicles sold)**

**Hybrids**

**Alcohol**

**Turbo Direct Injection Diesel**

**Gaseous**

**Electric**

**Fuel Cell**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy, 1980-2030

**(miles per gallon)**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

**Reference**

**Slow Technology**

**Rapid Technology**

## U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption, 1980-2030

**(quadrillion Btu)**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

**Reference**

**Slow Technology**

**Rapid Technology**

## Change in Residential Energy Intensity in Three Cases,

**2004-2030**
**(million Btu per household)**

**Reference**

**2005 Technology**

**High Technology**

**Best Available**
**Technology**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2030

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**100**

**134**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

- History

- Projections

**Reference**

**Slow Technology**

**Rapid Technology**

## U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030

**U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030**
**(million metric tons)**

**8,115 in 2030**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

**5,919**

**Reference**

**Slow Technology**

**Rapid Technology**

**8,832**

**7,421**

## Technological Progress: The Look Ahead

**Identifying specific breakthroughs is impossible, but advances are likely**
**Many of the technology improvements involve the use of existing technologies in more efficient ways**
**Major technological developments and opportunities are on the horizon**
**Oil and natural gas supply**
**Transportation**
**Industrial markets**
**Power generation**

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2006*****, February 2006**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2006*****, June 2006**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**