# Presentation: 517933

## Forecaster-Over-The-Loop Demonstration

**Forecaster-Over-The-Loop Demonstration**

**Forecaster**

**CWSU**

**Auto-nowcaster**

**Auto-nowcaster**

- Rita Roberts
- 28 November 2007

- Goals: Science and Operational Debrief
-             NWS Program Review

##  Forecaster-Over-The-Loop DemonstrationDallas/Ft. Worth WFO

-  Forecaster-Over-The-Loop DemonstrationDallas/Ft. Worth WFO

- Funded by the NWS Aviation Branch, forecasters assist in overseeing and improving rapidly updated thunderstorm Auto-nowcaster products sent to the CWSU.

-      Thunderstorm Forecasts for
-             Airport Arrival Gates

**Convergence lines**

**Slide 2**

## Combining Predictor (Likelihood) 

- to produce final forecast

**Forecast verification**

- Combining Predictor (Likelihood)
- Fields Using Fuzzy Logic To Produce Thunderstorm Initiation Nowcasts

- Likelihood Fields

-            Thunderstorm Nowcasting System
-                          “Auto-Nowcaster”

**Slide 3**

##  Ultimate Impact of Human-Inserted Boundaries 

-  Ultimate Impact of Human-Inserted Boundaries
-                      on Auto-nowcaster
-              Storm Initiation Likelihood Field

- No Human Interaction.
- Low interest values-no storms likely.

**Slide 4**

## Forecaster Interaction 

- _Forecaster Interaction_

- Forecaster-entered convergence boundaries using regional radar data
- -Currently on CIDD; soon on AWIPS

**Slide 5**

## Before      &      After Nudge 

**Slide 6**

- Polygon and Nudging Tool-for adjustment of thunderstorm likelihood intensities

##  NWS/NCAR 3 Year ContractYear 1 (1 Aug 2006-1 Aug 2007) $150K + $35K

- _At DFW:_
- Continue to run ANC system at DFW.
- Upgrades to ANC based on 2006 forecaster (Fano, Patrick) feedback.
- ANC nowcast fields and forecaster tools (boundary/polygon) accessed within AWIPS; data flow between AWIPS and ANC (Albo, Ba)
- ANC playback simulator (workstation) installed at DFW for forecaster training (Megenhardt)
- Products sent to CWSU via a dedicated web page.
- _At NCAR:_
- NCAR provides summary report of 2006 ANC/Forecaster performance (Roberts et al)
- NCAR works on refining existing regimes (Nelson)
- NCAR begins work on an elevated regime for ANC (Cai)
- NCAR begins conversion of deterministic nowcasts to probabilistic (requested, but did not receive supplemental funding)

**Slide 7**

## 1.    Summary of 2007 related activities for each group (WFO, CWSU, NCAR, MDL) 
9:15CST: 	Introductory comments (Rita Roberts)
9:30 CST:	MDL plan and objective (Steve Smith)
9:45 CST: 	NWS Aviation expectation (Curt and Cyndie)
10:00 CST: 	WFO feedback for 2007 operations  (Greg and Steve Fano)
10:15 CST: 	Feedback from CWSU of the use of ANC product
10:30 CST: 	Break
10:45 CST:  	AWIPS-ANC interface Demo (Steve Fano, Ama)
11:30 CST: 	Highlights of 2007 and forecaster interaction with the ANC - Eric Nelson11:45 CST: 	2007 Engineering efforts - Dan Megenhardt
12:00: CST 	Statistical results from the 2006 Forecaster-over-the-loop demo – Rita
12:15: CST  	Break (Lunch, ordering in)
 2.    Discussion of transfer CIDD capabilities to AWIPS 
1:15 CST: 	Summary of NCAR activities - Dave Albo 	
1:30 CST:	Summary of MDL activities – Ama Ba
3.    Goals for 2008 demonstration1:45CST 	Statement of Work - Rita2:00CST 	Evaluation of ANC synoptic regimes - Eric Nelson2:15CST	Probabilistic ANC nowcasts - Dave Albo2:30CST 	Implementing a larger ANC domain- Dan Megenhardt 
2:45 CST: AWIPS Prototyping (MDL, NCAR, Aviation) 
Discussion of AWIPS prototyping for 2008 (MDL, NCAR, Aviation)
Discussion of estimates of ANC implementation on AWIPS
Funding of NCAR by aviation for 2009 and beyond 
3:30 CST: Wrap up/adjourn

- 9:15CST: 	Introductory comments (Rita Roberts)
- 9:30 CST:	MDL plan and objective (Steve Smith)
- 9:45 CST: 	NWS Aviation expectation (Curt and Cyndie)
- 10:00 CST: 	WFO feedback for 2007 operations  (Greg and Steve Fano)
- 10:15 CST: 	Feedback from CWSU of the use of ANC product
- 10:30 CST: 	Break
- 10:45 CST:  	AWIPS-ANC interface Demo (Steve Fano, Ama)
- 11:30 CST: 	Highlights of 2007 and forecaster interaction with the ANC - Eric Nelson11:45 CST: 	2007 Engineering efforts - Dan Megenhardt
- 12:00: CST 	Statistical results from the 2006 Forecaster-over-the-loop demo – Rita
- 12:15: CST  	Break (Lunch, ordering in)
-  2.    **Discussion of transfer CIDD capabilities to AWIPS**
- 1:15 CST: 	Summary of NCAR activities - Dave Albo
- 1:30 CST:	Summary of MDL activities – Ama Ba
- 3.    **Goals for 2008 demonstration**1:45CST 	Statement of Work - Rita2:00CST 	Evaluation of ANC synoptic regimes - Eric Nelson2:15CST	Probabilistic ANC nowcasts - Dave Albo2:30CST 	Implementing a larger ANC domain- Dan Megenhardt
- 2:45 CST: **AWIPS Prototyping** (MDL, NCAR, Aviation)
- Discussion of AWIPS prototyping for 2008 (MDL, NCAR, Aviation)
- Discussion of estimates of ANC implementation on AWIPS
- Funding of NCAR by aviation for 2009 and beyond
- 3:30 CST: **Wrap up/adjourn**

- Agenda

**Slide 8**