# Presentation: 004431

## GUIDANCE ON CAPABILITY REFINEMENT PROCESS

- John M. Weber
- ICF Consulting

## It’s About Attitude...

## Target Capability

**Objectives for the “Soup”:**
**National Target Levels**
**Strategies for Large Event**
**Assign Responsibility**

**“****Serving up the  Process for Success”**

## 12 Step “Cooking” Process
“Cooking” Timeline
“Cooking” Instructions
36 capabilities = “36 varieties”

**“****Cooking” Timeline**
**“****Cooking” Instructions**
**36 capabilities = “36 varieties”**

- Overview

**Refining Target Capabilities**

- “Recipe” for Refining
- Target Capabilities

## Target Capability: “Steps in the Process”

**Unconstrained**
**National**
**Capability**

**1: Describe capability **

**2: Select scenarios to be addressed  **

**3: Determine demand for capability **

**4: Describe desired outcome (s)**

**5: Review & Refine Critical Tasks**

**6: Define performance measures**

**7 : Identify capability elements**
**     ****& capacity**

**8 : Determine capability requirements**
**      ****for a single incident**

**9 : Determine national capability levels**

**10: Compare different scenarios**

**11: Consider feasibility & adjust requirements**

**12: Assign capabilities to specific levels**

## Unconstrained National Capability

**Capability Targets**

- Private Sector and NGOs

- Local and Tribal Gov’t

- State Gov’t

- Federal Gov’t

- Capability

- Target

- Target

- Target

- Target

**Unconstrained**
**National Capability**

## Target Capability “Process and Timeline”

**June**

**July**

**August**

**September**

**2005**

**2-3 June Workshop**

**6 Jun- 20 Jul**
**Work groups “gather ingredients (data)”**

**20 Jul**
**Work groups “send ingredients (data)”**

**21-29 Jul**
**DHS “cook ingredients (analysis)”**

**1-3 Aug  Workshop “tasting the soup”**

**4-26 Aug  National Review “adjusting the recipe”**

**29 Aug -30 Sep  DHS**
** ****“****PUBLISH THE RECIPE”**

## Example:  

**Worksheet walk-through – 12 Step “Cooking Process”**

- Example:
- “How many urban search and rescue teams and of what level do we need nationwide?”
- Capability = Search and Rescue
- Sample contains fictional data – used for illustration only.
- Turn to page 7:  “Guidance on Capability Refinement Process”.

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 1: Describe Capability**

-  **Capability description needs to be comprehensive and accurate **
** ****Review TCL definition of the capability—note any needed changes**
** ****List & describe the services (i.e., key activities) that would be performed by this capability**

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 2: Select scenarios to be addressed**

-  **Identify which scenarios are likely to be applicable**
**Review Scenario Consequences Tables to determine which scenario may be most appropriate as a starting point**

**Select Earthquake scenario to begin...**

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 3: Determine Demand for Capability (A)**

-  **List the scenario conditions/elements that are key “drivers” of ****	****your capability**
**Specifically what elements affect when, how much, and what ****	****resources you would need to address this scenario**

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 3: Determine Demand for Capability (B)**

-  **It may be necessary to develop assumptions and planning factors to give you enough data to conduct a capability analysis**
**Where you appear to be missing key data that is relevant to your capability, you can make ****reasonable**** assumptions.**
**List the assumptions made and provide an rationale for each.**

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 4: Describe Desired Outcome**

-  **Review existing outcome description in the Target Capabilities List. **
**Indicate any revisions and provide an explanations for the changes ****	****made.**

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 5: Review and Refine Critical Tasks**

**Review the list of critical tasks from the Target Capabilities List **
**Add any new tasks that are not found in the TCL that are critical and refine any current tasks that seem too general**

| Critical Tasks | Rationale for adding, deletions, or revising task |
| --- | --- |
| Res.B.4.3 Coordinate urban search & rescue response |  |
| Res. B.4.4 Conduct urban search and rescue operations |  |
| Res. B.4.4.2.2. Deploy urban search & rescue task forces or teams |  |
| Res. B4.4.2 Assess situation and needs | From UTL |

**You must  include the UTL number for each task.**

***Existing critical task list was focused at strategic level and did not provide enough detail to set performance measures.  Expanded the list encompass the full cycle of tactical US&R activity.  Tasks derived from FEMA US&R Operations Manual and UTL.***

**Changes to current TCL Critical Tasks**

**Critical Task that NEEDS to be added**

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 6: Define Performance Measures & Objectives**

** ****Review list of performance measures provided in the TCL.**
** ****Determine whether there are any existing performance *****objectives *****within your discipline or industry. **
**These objectives should quantify the performance measure at a level that will ensure that the capability can achieve the outcome (defined in Step 4).**

| Number of victims rescued/injured/killed safely extricated in the incident | 100% of Victims must be safely extricated within 14 days
Source:  SME Knowledge |
| --- | --- |
| Number of US&R personnel injured/killed during rescue efforts | No US&R personnel injured or killed. |
| Time to get water supply to trapped victims | Must have water to trapped victims within 72 hours. |

| Performance Measure | Define Performance Objective 
(i.e. ‘X’ minutes to arrive to the scene of a disaster) |
| --- | --- |

**Quantifiable Performance Measure**

**Changes to existing TCL**

**Performance Measure to be added**

- Most significant performance driver

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 7: Identify Capability Elements and Capacity (A)**

-  **Identify the resources needed to accomplish the critical tasks.**
**These should be presented in the smallest resource ****	****organization(s)**
**Use NIMS typing description if available**

| Resource Organization | Description | Reference |
| --- | --- | --- |
| US&R Task Force | US&R Task Force consists of two 31-person teams, 4 canines, a comprehensive equipment cache. | NIMS |
| Structure Collapse Team | A non-standardized team usually comprised from local fire departments. Has the capability to extricate people from light structures such as houses and apartment buildings. Team is non-deployable and can work in own or adjacent jurisdiction. | SME Knowledge
See Worksheet A for list of resources |

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 7: Identify Capability Elements and Capacity (B)**

-  **Estimate the capability of the previous resource organization to perform the critical tasks.**
**Use established standards where they exist.**
**If there are no established standards, estimate the capacity based on ****reasonable assumptions**** and ****critical limiting factors.**

| Resource Organization  | Estimated Capacity
 (e.g. throughput) | Rationale 
(How did you arrive at this estimate?) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Type I US&R Team (Heavy Structure)  | Extricate 150 victims over 10 days in a single site | Equipped to medically treat 50 victims for 72 hours. 
Teams are self sustaining for 72 hours; can work 10 days if re-supplied every 72 hours.
Teams are depleted after 10 days. 
Therefore each team can extricate approximately 150 victims in 10 days (within 14 day target).
 Victims can survive without water for 72 hours, assume we can provide water to trapped victims no later than 72 hours |
| Structure Collapse Team  | Extricate 1 household of 4 victims per day or 40 people in 10 days. | Team works 12 hour day (8 hour rescue, 2 hours transit each way). 
Can work own or adjacent jurisdiction w/o resupply.
Assume teams work 10 days and can be re-supplied through US&R re-supply system, therefore each team can extricate 40 victims in 10 days. |

***No capacity standard exists for victim extraction.  Capacity estimated from medical supplies and deployment cycle.***

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 8: Determine Capability Requirement for a Single ****	****	****	****Incident**

** ****Consider the “drivers” and most limiting factor in determining your overall capacity to determine the quantity of resources needed.**
** ****Calculate quantity needed**

| Resource Organization | Estimated Capacity | Scenario Requirement Values | Quantity of Resources Needed  (Note: to completely mitigate scenario volume) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Type I US&R Team (Heavy) | 150 victims over 10 days in a single site | Total victims trapped 20,000. 
14,000 trapped in heavy structures | 93 teams 
(14,000 victims/150 victims per team = 93 teams) |
| Structure Collapse Teams  (light structures) | Extricate 1 household of 4 victims per day | Total victims trapped 20,000. 
6,000 trapped in light structures | 150 teams
(6,000/40=150)
Within 2 hours driving time of major metro area |

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 9: Determine National Capability Requirements ****(A)**

** ****Determine your approach for deciding where resources will need to be accessible and outline them.**
**It is important to remember: **
**Where are your resources most needed for the base “worst-case scenario”?**
**Take into consideration time-distance requirements**

**Approach Considerations**

**Type I US&R Teams – ****     - Can be ****airlifted**** or trucked to the site ****     - ****Centralized assets**** geographically dispersed in UASI cities such that they can be delivered to the earthquake site ****within 24**** hours by road or air****     - US&R teams will handle the heavy building collapse, subways and tunnels first... **

**Account for time-distance**** ****requirements**

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 9: Determine National Capability Requirements ****(B)**

-  Using your approach, determine the following for each resource:
- Who takes ownership
- Geographic location
- Quantity of the Resource

| Resource | Geographic Distribution | Quantity | Rationale |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| US&R Team  | in or near the 93 largest metropolitan areas | 93 | Teams equipped and trained to handle heavy structures found mainly in metropolitan areas. 
They can be transported between areas.
They need to be located where there is a large enough resource base to keep them staffed, trained, and practiced. |
| Structure Collapse Team  | Distributed in regional areas surrounding major metropolitan areas in earthquake zones; 1.5 teams per 100K population. | 1153 | Must be located close to the damaged areas and capable of providing mutual aid to each other.
64 MSA’s > 100K population in 16 states in earthquake zones
Calculated 1.5 teams per 100K population to arrive at 1153 teams
 |

- Who

- Where

- How Much

## Objective 1: Determine National Target Level for Capability

**Step 10: Compare Different Scenarios**

-  **Repeat Steps 2 – 9 for the remaining scenarios. **
**Update the original worksheet or complete new worksheets as ****	****necessary.**
**Determine the following:**
**New tasks or conditions require different resources.**
**Scenario conditions affect the total quantity or resources required.**
**Scenario conditions affect the distribution of resources required.**

| Scenario | Resource Organization | Changes |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Toxic Industrial Chemical | Type I US&R Team (Heavy) | Added equipment for respirators; no change to quantity or distribution of teams as this is a lesser magnitude scenario.   |
| Improvised Explosive Device | Structure collapse team | Increased requirement to at least one team per county nationwide, since event could happen anywhere.  
1.5/100k Ratio continues for earthquake risk areas.
There are 3,142 counties in the U.S.  This increases the total number of teams to approximately 4,231  i.e, [3,142 county teams + (1153 earthquake teams – 64 MSAs which are also counties)]. |

## Objective 2: Develop Strategies

**Step 11: Consider Feasibility & Adjust National ****	****	****	****	****Requirements**

** ****Review your results thus far.**
**Determine if you can use innovative strategies to accomplish the same goals more efficiently:**
**Volunteers, technology, just-in-time training...**
**Determine if you need to modify performance objectives...**
**Changing performance measures/objectives/standards**
**Establishing different thresholds with different strategies for ****	****response**

| Scenario | Resource Organization | Changes | Rationale (revised strategy) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Earthquake | Type I US&R Team (Heavy) | Decrease requirements by 3 US&R teams to 90 teams total. | Will augment US&R teams with 30 mine rescue teams from industry. |
| Earthquake | Industry mine rescue team | Added 30 6-person mine rescue teams | See above. |

- Innovation:  Use of industry teams

## Objective 3: Assign Responsibilities

**Step 12: Assign Capabilities to Specific Levels**

**Make a final determination as to who owns it, where it’s located, and how many of each resource you need.**
**Consider any defining characteristics that may indicate differences in distribution among local jurisdictions.**

| Resource | Assigned level | Geographic Distribution | Quantity | Rationale (distinguishing characteristic) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| US&R Team  | Federal | in or near the 90 largest metropolitan areas | 90 | They need to be located where there is a large enough resource base to keep them staffed, trained, and practiced – metro areas. |
| Structure Collapse Team  | Local | Minimum of 1 team per county; teams increased in in major metropolitan regional areas surrounding major earthquake zones to  1.5 teams per 100K population. | 4231 | They are non-deployable, so they must be located close to the damaged areas and capable of providing mutual aid to each other.
See calculation in Step 10. |

**Final Inputs based on identified demand and adjusted feasibility and your strategy**

## Process acts as a “funnel”

**Key points to remember:**

**Process acts as a “funnel”**
**Work iteratively – go back and forth among steps as needed**
**“****Adjust the recipe”**
**This is a first estimate**

## Project Completion

**Submit Results**

**Please submit your completed worksheets as follows—**
**When:   July 20, 2005**
**Where: **_[UTL@DHS.GOV](mailto:UTL@DHS.GOV)_
**How:  E-mail or fax  to ****202-786-9930**
**If you have any questions:  **
**Contact your Group Liaison, or **
** ****Marcus Pollock, ODP Tel:  202-786-9523**
**Email:  marcus.pollock@dhs.gov**
**For Electronic Secure Portal-- Help Desk 804-744-8800**

## Capability

- Gaps

- Unconstrained National Capability

**Capability Targets**

**Unconstrained**
**National Capability**