# Presentation: 253733

## Storm-Based Warnings

- Overview and Impact on
- Flash/Areal Flood Warning Operations
- Hydrology Program Managers Conference
- July 11, 2007

## Polygons in 2003

- Polygons in 2006

## Storm-Based Warnings

- Overview
- Impact to Flash Flood operations
- Implementation
- Training
- Impact to GPRA measures
- WarnGen Software recommendations

## Team Members

- Mike Looney, Team Lead and Facilitator (CRH)
- Noreen Schwein (CRH for OCWWS/HSD)
- Brent MacAloney (NWSH Verification Branch)
- Jeff Lorens (WRH)
- Joe Schaefer (SPC)
- Pete Wolf (WFO Jacksonville, FL)
- Steve Naglic (WFO Columbia, SC)
- Mike Coyne (WFO Huntsville, AL)
- Ken Waters (PRH)
- Rich Okulski (WFO Memphis, TN)
- Shannon White, NWSH Training
- John Ferree, (NWSH @ Norman, OK)

## Polygon Warning Evaluation WFOs

**Polygon Warning Evaluation WFOs**
**March 1 –  September 30 2005**

## Reduction of Falsely Alarmed Area
Decrease in “Over Warning” Perception
Increase in Customer Confidence
User Demand for Polygons
Creation of New Industry
Graphical Dissemination
TV
Internet
Cell Phones

- Decrease in “Over Warning” Perception
- Increase in Customer Confidence
- User Demand for Polygons
- Creation of New Industry
- Graphical Dissemination
- TV
- Internet
- Cell Phones

- Why Storm-Based Warnings?

## Effective Storm-Based Warnings Can Avoid Unnecessary Warning  of Population Centers

**Most of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex is correctly omitted from this Storm-Based tornado warning. New siren system selectively activated.**

***“******Storm-based warnings would save the public a minimum of $100 million dollars a year in reduction of the cost of sheltering”***
- - Dr. Dan Sutter   Professor of Economics

**Notes:**
Currently, the polygon above would warn at least 4 counties.  

## Storm-Based Warning Benefits 

- Warnings Focused on Weather and Water Hazards
- Warned Area Reduced on Average By 75%; Up to 97% Reduction in Western U.S. Counties
- “Blue Sky” Effect Reduced By Finer Resolution Warnings
- Warnings Defined By GIS Coordinates
- Adaptable to Local Distribution Via Cell Phones, PDAs, etc.
- Improved Display Capabilities for Television, Internet
- Better Public Service
- Improved Information For Decision Makers – Emergency Managers
- More Accurate Depiction of Threat To U.S. Citizens
- Warnings Are The Best Science and Technology Can Provide

**Notes:**
I've covered the SB warning benefits in previous slides.   

The third bullet and sub bullets cover public service.   The NWS issues warnings not only to protect life and property, but also to provide critical weather information to public decision makers.   

Public officials such as emergency managers, city mayors, and county executives have to the authority and responsibility to evacuate or direct recovery/relief resources to areas impacted by hazardous weather.     

## Partner Acceptance of Storm-Based Tornado Warnings

- Screen capture of Brian Busby at the ABC affiliate in Kansas City, MO. WFO Kansas City/Pleasant Hill issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (blue) then upgraded to a Tornado Warning (red).

**Notes:**
Partners including Brian Busby at the ABC affiliate in Kansas City, MO. His vendor provides our polygons.  What you see is a screen capture not a pose.  WFO EAX issued a SVR (blue) then upgraded to a TOR (red).  This episode was the first time Brian displayed the polygons.  

## Legacy Dissemination Technology Is County Based  
NOAA Weather Radio  
EAS Activation (FCC) 
Majority of Siren Systems (County/Local Government)   

Multiple Warnings in One County 
Easy To Differentiate Graphically; Hard to Describe Verbally     
VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines Multiple Warnings For Parsing Computer Programs 
SVS summary of warnings in effect?

CWA Boundaries
Coordination polygon?

AWIPS LSR software does not adequately support SBWs
Alternate software is being reviewed for implementation

- NOAA Weather Radio
- EAS Activation (FCC)
- Majority of Siren Systems (County/Local Government)
- Multiple Warnings in One County
- Easy To Differentiate Graphically; Hard to Describe Verbally
- VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines Multiple Warnings For Parsing Computer Programs
- SVS summary of warnings in effect?
- CWA Boundaries
- Coordination polygon?
- AWIPS LSR software does not adequately support SBWs
- Alternate software is being reviewed for implementation

- Storm-Based Warning Challenges

**Notes:**
There are challenges for SB warnings:  

The biggest challenge is dissemination technology.  NOAA Wx Radio, EAS activation and many tornado siren systems are based on the whole county warning standard.  It will take several years for a complete transition.   

Finer resolution requires all of us to clearly articulate in graphics and text the location of warnings, when there multiple warnings in effect in a county, and when warnings expire or are cancelled.   

## Flash/Areal Flood Operations

- Operational change: If the rain and flooding proceed southward, a new warning must be issued instead of being caught in the “safety net” of the same county.
- Multiple warnings in a county will require improved text descriptions
- FFMP will need to be even better utilized to determine direction of flow and better delineate threat area.

## Flash Flood OperationsOptimal use of FFMP

- Basin definitions and customization
- Directional flow indicators
- Delineated areas (urban, fire burn)

## Warning by Basins Improves FFWs

**Notes:**
FFWs by polygon will reduce FAA, just as in TOR/SVR Warnings.  Additionally, Basin Delineation will aid in improved polygonology and customer service. Flash Flood Warnings will also be storm-based beginning October 1, 2007, and a reduction in falsely alarmed area is expected for Flash Flood Warnings, also. Here is an example provided by Ken Cook, SOO ICT.  The background image is the Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction application with the highlighted areas of magenta are areas where rainfall accumulation has exceeded flash flood guidance. Flash flooding is both a meteorological and hydrologic event with not just the areas of heavy rainfall under threat, but also down stream (the streams are in yellow). The white polygon is drawn for just the area  under threat of flash flooding. 

## Up and Downstream Basins – hatched area

## Douglas County, CO. Flash Flood Warning

**Notes:**
Hayman fire burn area.  Reverse 911 calls alerted those in the warning...along West Creek between Deckers and Westcreek.

## Implementation

- Train forecasters within a month or two  of implementation.
- Outreach with customers throughout FY07
- Outreach slide show at COMET WCM site
- Test offices continue storm-based warning operations
- Other offices begin when ready; no later than Oct 1, 2007

**Notes:**
Once offices have OB8.1...they will be in SB warning era as they will no longer be able to expand the polygon via the FFS or FLS.

## Training

- WDTB developing training
- Available via LMS with OB8.1 July 16
- Job sheets (on CD) will be distributed
- Includes the Jacob Creek, Turnpike flash flood
- Cells moved east into neighboring CWA
- Flash Flood moved west back into original CWA
- Training will utilize FFMP

## In FY08, Warning by polygon and Verifying by polygon
Fewer warnings could show lower PODs and LTs.
Similar to severe weather, could create polygons that are too small causing missed events; lower lead times and PODs
Evaluation has shown little change in FFW PODs/LTs
May be due to WarnGen limitations
FY07 and FY08 preliminary baseline could be used to make corrections to GPRA goals if appropriate
Reduction in Falsely Alarmed Area (FAA) in other program measures; will indicate improved service

- Fewer warnings could show lower PODs and LTs.
- Similar to severe weather, could create polygons that are too small causing missed events; lower lead times and PODs
- Evaluation has shown little change in FFW PODs/LTs
- May be due to WarnGen limitations
- FY07 and FY08 preliminary baseline could be used to make corrections to GPRA goals if appropriate
- Reduction in Falsely Alarmed Area (FAA) in other program measures; will indicate improved service

- Impact to FFW GPRA Measures

**Notes:**
Since the polygon is counted as the warning (not the county) would generally have fewer warnings which could show lower PODs and LTs.

## WarnGen Change Recommendations

- Access FFMP stream/basin names for all warning products (target OB8.2-8.3)
- Use FFMP basins to create the polygon (target 8.3)
- Issue with undefined basin areas in CWAs
- Issue warnings for noncontiguous areas for same event (greatest need in mountainous areas)
- Use the FFMP basin map background as the **active** map background for hydrologic warning polygons.
- Overlay the county map background together with the FFMP basin map background.
- Remove basins with right click after drawing polygon

- Provide capability to:

## FFW with stream names

- Optional list of river, streams, creeks, and basin names in the "Call-To-Action" section that follows the fourth bullet.
- Planned for OB 8.2/8.3

## Example Prototype FFW – OB 8.2 or 8.3

## Feedback from HPMs will be critical

- Hydrologic aspect of SB warnings is less analyzed
- Orographical impacts to methodology for hydro products will provide valuable lessons learned for fire weather and winter weather

## Thank you...

- Questions?
- http://www.weather.gov/sbwarnings/