# Presentation: 915556

## Emerging Trends in U.S. Science and Engineering

- Joseph Bordogna
- National Science Foundation
- http://www.nsf.gov/bordogna

**National Coalition for Advanced**
**Manufacturing Conference 2000**

- Renaissance Hotel
- Washington, DC
- March 31, 2000

**Notes:**
1
Welcome to workshop.

Appreciate your participation.

We are here today to explore concepts and models for partnerships that will help NSF develop the Partnerships for Innovation initiative.

Let me begin by giving you the context.

## A 21st Century World

**Cognitive****Revolution**

**Diverse**
**Workforce**

**Creative**
**Transformation**

**Information**
**Explosion**

**Demographic****Shifts**

**Environmental****Sustainability**

**Finite****Resources**

**International****Partnerships**

**Global****Economy**

**Infrastructure**
**Renewal**

**Continuous**
**Innovation**

**Career-Long**
**Learning**

**Complex**
**Technologies**

## The source of wealth is something specifically human:  KNOWLEDGE

**Knowledge applied to tasks we already know how to do is *****PRODUCTIVITY***
**Knowledge applied to tasks that are new and different is *****INNOVATION***

***Managing for the Future:  The 1990s and Beyond***
**Peter F. Drucker, 1992**

##  Creative Transformations

- “The interaction of technological innovation with the competitive marketplace is the fundamental driving force in capitalist industrial progress.” (Schumpeter, 1942)
- “...a normally healthy economy was not one in equilibrium, but one that was constantly being disrupted by technological innovation.”  (The Economist (on Schumpeter), 1999)

## A 21st Century Vision

**. . .a remarkable run of economic growth that appears to have its roots in ongoing advances in technology.**

- Alan Greenspan
- June 14, 1999
- Joint Economic Committee

**A 21****st**** Century Vision**

## The Process of Creative Destruction 

- 	Business leaders usually visualize a market economy in the context of how capitalism administers existing structures, whereas the wiser approach is to understand how it creates and destroys them.
- 					Paraphrased from J. Schumpeter
- 					Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy
- 					Chapter VII, page 84, 1942

## Innovation System

- Concurrent Integration

**Innovation**
**Wealth Creation**

**Analysis**
**Reduction**

**Discovery of**
**  ****New Knowledge**

**Societal Needs **
**The Public Good **
**Natural Capital**

**Devices **
**Processes**
**Systems**

**Ideas**
**Information**
**Infrastructure**

**Capital Formation **
**  ****& Investment**
**Market Place**
**Skilled Workforce**

**Synthesis**
**Integration**

**Design**
**Making & Moving**
**Sustenance**

**Science**

**Policy Context**

**Engineering**

**Economic Context**

**PEOPLE**

**TOOLS**

**IDEAS**

## Science/Technology Linkage 

**Academe**
**52.1%**

**Govt. Labs**
**10.2%**

**Non-profit**
**11%**

**Industry**
**26.7%**

- Source: National Science Board,
*Industry Trends in Research Support and Links to Public Research.*

- Patents granted in the US patent system are increasingly linked to public research.
- Two-thirds of the cited papers were published by organizations primarily supported by public funding.

**Sources of papers cited**
**on U.S. Patents**

**Notes:**
10
Here’s the paradox:  while federal investment in research wanes, industry is increasingly dependent on publicly supported research at the frontier.
You may be familiar with the now-famous study by Dr. Francis Narin and his colleagues at CHI Research.  It was featured in the National Science Board’s 1998 Report on industry links to publicly funded research.
The study demonstrates the linkage between patents granted in the U.S. system and frontier research published in archival journals.
Where does the knowledge that drives innovation come from?  It comes predominately from publicly-supported research.
Nearly two-thirds of the papers referenced on patents were published by organizations primarily supported by public funding.

## Patent Citations to S&T LiteratureUp 10-fold since ‘88, doubled since ‘96

- Source: NSF/SRS

**Notes:**
11
Even more important is that the rate of these links is increasing dramatically.

The latest data showed that over 100,000 citations on U.S. patents issued in 1998 referred to scientific and technical articles.

That is a ten-fold increase since 1988.
It has doubled in just the past two years.

One clear implication: industry is increasingly dependent on academic research and other publicly-supported research.

## Innovation Dynamo

**Innovation Dynamo**

**Savvy S&E**
**Intellectual Capital**
**-----**
**Positive Economic**
**Environment**
**(Capital, Regulatory...)**
**-----**
**Robust SET**
**Infrastructure**

_**Core**_

_**Vectors**_

_**Results**_

**Enterprise**
**Transformation**
**Economic**
**Opportunity**
**Wealth**
**Creation**

**Enabled Discovery**
**Workforce**
**Connections**
**(Ind./Univ./**
**Govt.)**
**Ubiquitous Tools**
**Complexity**
**Diversity**

## The NSF Vision

*	**Enabling the Nation’s future through discovery, learning, and innovation...*

**Notes:**
That brings us to the present day.  This is the vision statement we’ve drafted for the new NSF strategic plan.

“Enabling the nation’s future through discovery, learning, and innovation.”

By design, this vision captures the dynamism that has shaped NSF’s history.  It’s no accident that terms like discovery, learning, and innovation are all resting side-by-side in the same set of words. 

## The NSF Mission

*	*To promote the progress of science; to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare; to secure the national defense; and for other purposes.
- 		National Science Foundation Act of 1950

**Notes:**
That brings us to the present day.  This is the vision statement we’ve drafted for the new NSF strategic plan.

“Enabling the nation’s future through discovery, learning, and innovation.”

By design, this vision captures the dynamism that has shaped NSF’s history.  It’s no accident that terms like discovery, learning, and innovation are all resting side-by-side in the same set of words. 

## NSF’s Outcome Goals

- People - *A diverse, internationally competitive and globally-engaged workforce*
- Tools - *Accessible, state-of-the-art shared tools and information bases** *

**NSF’s Outcome Goals**

**Notes:**
The three goals outlined in the plan also highlight this historical dynamic.
They are summed up by three key words: People, Ideas, and Tools.

We continually help break new ground through the research and education we support, but we can’t let the new knowledge generated lie fallow.

NSF is as much about preparing a world-class workforce as it is about discovery.  That’s a primary benefit from our support of academic research... and that’s been the intent for NSF since its start.

And the tools -- the research platforms, telescopes, databases, and user facilities -- open up the new vistas and frontiers for learning and discovery.

## NSF Core Strategies

**NSF Core Strategies**

- Develop Intellectual Capital
- Integrate Research and Education
- Promote Partnerships

## 21st Century Research Fund

- New $495 million interagency National Nanotechnology Initiative
- A $594 million increase in the ongoing Information Technology Research Initiative
- $1 billion increase for NIH biomedical research
- A $675 million increase for NSF, double the largest dollar increase in NSF’s history

**$3 billion increase for FY 2001, the largest increase in civilian research in a generation.**

## NSF Budget RequestBy Initiative

- Info. Technology

- Biocomp. in the Env.

- $126

- $74

- $97

- $50

- $327

- $157

- $217

- $136

- 159%

- 112%

- 123%

- 172%

*Millions of Dollars*

**FY 2000**
**Plan**

**FY 2001**
**Request**

**Percent**
**Change**

- 21st Cent. Workforce

- Nanoscale S&E

**Notes:**
Information Technology Research (ITR) - NSF will lead a multi-agency effort in ITR, investing $327 million in broad areas of research and education, focused on computer system architecture, information storage and retrieval, scalable networks, and connectivity, as well as studies of the impact of information technology on society. 

     Biocomplexity in the Environment (BE) - Totaling $136 million, investment for BE in 2001 is more than two-and-a-half times the commitment in year 2000. The enhanced BE initiative will bring together interdisciplinary teams of scientists in an intensified effort to understand dynamic interactions within biological systems and the physical environment.

     21st Century Workforce - The almost $157 million NSF plans in 2001 is more than double its year 2000 investment. Programs such as Centers for Learning and Teaching will address the needs of the American workforce and its transition into a more technology-based, information and knowledge-based workplace. Increased emphasis on Graduate Teaching Fellowships will place many more graduate and undergraduate students into K-12 classrooms as teaching resources. A $10-million initiative for tribal colleges will encourage Native Americans to pursue fields of study in information technology and other     scientific areas.

    Nanoscale science and engineering - NSF will invest more than $216 million in the multi-agency National Nanotechnology Initiative as the lead agency. NSF's research will include work in nanoscale biosystems, structures and quantum control, device and system architecture, processes in the environment and simulations. Interdisciplinary research and education teams will also initiate long-term work in nanostructured materials, manufacturing, electronics, magnetics and health care. The money will support new centers and networks of excellence, research instrumentation and facilities and student felllowships, traineeships and curriculum development.

## NSF Budget RequestBy Strategic Goal

- Ideas

- Admin. &
- Mgmnt.

- People

- Tools

- $1,973

- $189

- $801

- $934

- $2,425

- $215

- $888

- $1,045

- 22.9%

- 13.7%

- 10.8%

- 11.8%

*Millions of Dollars*

**FY 2000**
**Plan**

**FY 2001**
**Request**

**Percent**
**Change**

**Total, NSF**

**$3,897**

**$4,572**

**17.3%**

**Notes:**
You’ll see these goals highlighted throughout our budget documents.  The different categories tell a fuller story than the appropriations accounts.  
This is a budget about big ideas.  Ideas are up 23% by this measure.  This includes the main thrust of our funding for the initiatives -- as well as the increased investment in core disciplinary research.  
Think of it as a balance wheel.  It gives us the means to improve grant size and duration and boost investment across the board.  Examples of investments in core research include: fundamental mathematics, functional genomics, physical, chemical and geological cycles, and research in the psychological, cognitive, and language sciences.
Investments in people: we’ve always said that every NSF dollar is an investment in people.  We cover kindergarten to career development.  This investment encompasses much of our Education and Human Resources Directorate as well as many activities funded right across the Foundation.  
Across all of NSF, we support nearly 200,000 people -- teachers, students, researchers, postdocs, and many others.
Tools -- these are the databases, platforms, and facilities that keep us at the leading edge.  There are some new starts in here that I’ll be highlighting in a moment.
I also want to mention the Administration and Management line. It includes investments that will aid our ability to adopt advanced information technologies, enhance customer service, and ensure financial integrity.  These investments are critical to NSF’s performance as our workload increases in quantity and complexity. 

## New Capabilities

- Terascale
- Nanoscale
- Complexity
- Cognition

**Notes:**
Let me bring the initiatives together.
Tera – you may have heard that NSF will be investing in a new terascale computing system for use by academic researchers.  The solicitation was just posted on our web site in December.
This will take us three orders of magnitude beyond present general purpose and generally accessible computing capabilities.
We have also been examining ways to enhance our investment in nano-scale science and engineering.  This will take us three orders of magnitude smaller than any human-made devices today.
Finally, we know that complexity is a defining characteristic of many systems.  You may have heard about our initiative in biocomplexity.
Together, these advances will lay out the capacity for an integrated design field that is far beyond what is imaginable with today’s technology.  
We’ll be able to handle both complexity and the human-machine interface in ways that are friendlier and universally-useable.  That in turn will enable complete connectivity among all people.

## Nanoscale S&E

**DNA molecules:**
- ~ 2.5 nm

**Atoms: **
- less than a nanometer

**Cells: **thousands of nanometers

*Credit: Liz Carroll*

**Nanoscale S&E**

**Notes:**
Turning now from the terascale to the nanoscale.  (Note: Mike Roco will provide more detail on NSF’s investment in Nanotechnology in his talk on Thursday.)
One nanometer (one billionth of a meter) is a magical point on the dimensional scale.  Nanostructures are at the confluence of the smallest of human-made devices and the large molecules of living systems.
- Individual atoms are around a few angstroms in diameter -- a few tenths of a nanometer.
- In the middle image: Ten shoulder-to-shoulder hydrogen atoms (blue balls) span 1 nanometer. DNA molecules are about 2.5 nanometers wide.
- Biological cells, like red blood cells, have diameters in the range of thousands of nanometers.  These are approaching the same scale as micro-electrical mechanical systems.

## Nanoscale S&EMolecular Wiring

*J.R. Heath, UCLA*
*R.S. Williams, Hewlett-Packard*

**Notes:**
One priority area is biological nanotechnology -- a.k.a. natural nanotechnology.

Much of the photosynthesis that powers forests unfolds inside tiny cellular power houses called chloroplasts (shown here). 

These contain nanoscale molecular machinery (including pigment molecules like chlorophyll) arranged inside stacked structures, called thylakoid disks, that convert light and carbon dioxide into bio-chemical energy.

Call it what you want -- that’s a power supply.

## Biocomplexity in the Environment

- Planet

- Biome

- Ecosystem

- Community

- Habitat

- Population

- Organism

- Organ

- Tissue

- Cell

- Organelle

- Molecular

- Atomic

- REDUCTIONISM

- INTEGRATION

**Biocomplexity in the Environment**

## Components of a Holistic Baccalaureate Education

**Notes:**
You’ll see these goals highlighted throughout our budget documents.  The different categories tell a fuller story than the appropriations accounts.  
This is a budget about big ideas.  Ideas are up 23% by this measure.  This includes the main thrust of our funding for the initiatives -- as well as the increased investment in core disciplinary research.  
Think of it as a balance wheel.  It gives us the means to improve grant size and duration and boost investment across the board.  Examples of investments in core research include: fundamental mathematics, functional genomics, physical, chemical and geological cycles, and research in the psychological, cognitive, and language sciences.
Investments in people: we’ve always said that every NSF dollar is an investment in people.  We cover kindergarten to career development.  This investment encompasses much of our Education and Human Resources Directorate as well as many activities funded right across the Foundation.  
Across all of NSF, we support nearly 200,000 people -- teachers, students, researchers, postdocs, and many others.
Tools -- these are the databases, platforms, and facilities that keep us at the leading edge.  There are some new starts in here that I’ll be highlighting in a moment.
I also want to mention the Administration and Management line. It includes investments that will aid our ability to adopt advanced information technologies, enhance customer service, and ensure financial integrity.  These investments are critical to NSF’s performance as our workload increases in quantity and complexity. 

## The Fundamentals

**Notes:**
You’ll see these goals highlighted throughout our budget documents.  The different categories tell a fuller story than the appropriations accounts.  
This is a budget about big ideas.  Ideas are up 23% by this measure.  This includes the main thrust of our funding for the initiatives -- as well as the increased investment in core disciplinary research.  
Think of it as a balance wheel.  It gives us the means to improve grant size and duration and boost investment across the board.  Examples of investments in core research include: fundamental mathematics, functional genomics, physical, chemical and geological cycles, and research in the psychological, cognitive, and language sciences.
Investments in people: we’ve always said that every NSF dollar is an investment in people.  We cover kindergarten to career development.  This investment encompasses much of our Education and Human Resources Directorate as well as many activities funded right across the Foundation.  
Across all of NSF, we support nearly 200,000 people -- teachers, students, researchers, postdocs, and many others.
Tools -- these are the databases, platforms, and facilities that keep us at the leading edge.  There are some new starts in here that I’ll be highlighting in a moment.
I also want to mention the Administration and Management line. It includes investments that will aid our ability to adopt advanced information technologies, enhance customer service, and ensure financial integrity.  These investments are critical to NSF’s performance as our workload increases in quantity and complexity. 

## The Knowledge/Cognitive Revolution“The Rediscovery of the Human Mind”

- How do people perceive, learn, create and relate to one another?
- How can we improve education and human learning?
- How can human-made devices and systems be made more intelligent?
- How can social and political processes be improved?
- How can networks and large integrated databases augment human intelligence and creativity?
- How can we improve human understanding and communication?

## Challenges for 21st Century Academe	

- Educate students to:
- See the world whole; sense the coupling among seemingly disparate fields of endeavor
- Perform synthesis in balance with analysis
- Build connections between the world of learning and the world beyond
- Innovate

## Challenges for 21st Century Industry

- Tap the potential of collaboration
- Esp.: multi-firm & cross-sectoral partnerships
- Reconcile time horizons
- Need for shorter product cycles _and_ longer term outlook
- Avoid “Overplanning”, esp. w/ partnerships
- Cultivate diversity in styles & approaches

## Challenges for 21st Century Government

- Demonstrate accountability
- Adopt GPRA/Outcome-based approaches
- Improve flexibility & agility
- Streamline processes
- Invest in workforce training
- Cultivate & catalyze innovation

## Some Philosophical Issues

_**Need**_** to emphasize integrative nature of education as well as reductionist**
_**Need**_** for a holistic undergraduate education**
_**Need**_** to foster intellectual freedom and creativity in the context of real world needs**
_**Need**_** to embrace disciplinary interfaces while nurturing disciplinary research**
_**Need**_** for focused strategic investments vis-à-vis broad-based support**
_**Need**_** to integrate activities and strengthen linkages**

## Some Strategic Themes for 21st Century Academe

***Intellectual Integration - to synergize the knowledge and skills of diverse disciplines and cultures***
***Organizational Integration - to promote mutually beneficial sharing of knowledge and resources***
***Investment in People - to enable our work force and provide tomorrow’s societal leaders ***
***Organizational Agility - to respond positively and creatively to change***
***Accountability - to build the public’s trust***

## Construction of the Whole

- 	“The need to create sound synthesis and systemizations of knowledge... will call out a kind of scientific genius which hitherto has existed only as an aberration:  the genius for integration.  Of necessity this means specialization, as all creative effort does, but this time the [person] will be specializing in the construction of the whole.”
- 				José Ortega y Gasset
*	**	**	**	**Mission of the University*
- 				(1930)

**Notes:**
4
Now we are ready to begin looking ahead – to the NSF of the next 50 years.

This look to the future will follow Peter Drucker’s approach to making predictions.  In an interview some years back with Forbes magazine, he was asked about his reputation as a futurist and forecaster.

He quickly corrected his questioner:

“I never predict.  I just look out the window and see what’s visible -- but not yet seen.”

When we’re trying to imagine the NSF of the next 50 years, the best place to start is with what is visible today.

## Ig-Nobel Prize for 1994

**For the *****Heisenberg Certainty Principle:***
**“****If your position is everywhere, **
**   ****your momentum is zero.”**
**   ****-- National Public Radio**
**       ****NSF Grant No. 93-000000**

**Ig-Nobel**
**Prize **
**for**
**1994**

**National**
**Public Radio**

**Notes:**
You’ll see these goals highlighted throughout our budget documents.  The different categories tell a fuller story than the appropriations accounts.  
This is a budget about big ideas.  Ideas are up 23% by this measure.  This includes the main thrust of our funding for the initiatives -- as well as the increased investment in core disciplinary research.  
Think of it as a balance wheel.  It gives us the means to improve grant size and duration and boost investment across the board.  Examples of investments in core research include: fundamental mathematics, functional genomics, physical, chemical and geological cycles, and research in the psychological, cognitive, and language sciences.
Investments in people: we’ve always said that every NSF dollar is an investment in people.  We cover kindergarten to career development.  This investment encompasses much of our Education and Human Resources Directorate as well as many activities funded right across the Foundation.  
Across all of NSF, we support nearly 200,000 people -- teachers, students, researchers, postdocs, and many others.
Tools -- these are the databases, platforms, and facilities that keep us at the leading edge.  There are some new starts in here that I’ll be highlighting in a moment.
I also want to mention the Administration and Management line. It includes investments that will aid our ability to adopt advanced information technologies, enhance customer service, and ensure financial integrity.  These investments are critical to NSF’s performance as our workload increases in quantity and complexity. 

## Slide 32