# Presentation: 536902

## Crosscut Assessment of Hydrometerological Products, Services, and Supporting Research

- Mary M. Cairns
- OFCM

**Notes:**
Good afternoon,  I am Mark Gunzelman, the Executive Secretary for the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) Council and Committee for Space Weather (CSW). I am making this presentation today on behalf of Bob Dumont.  The proposed action is to support the need for an across the board Federal Agency assessment of Hydrometeorological products, services and supporting research. The OFCM would facilitate the establishment of a Joint Action Group (JAG) for this activity.  

## Overview

- Background
- Discussion
- Who should be involved?
- Objectives
- ICMSSR Action
- Agency Briefings
- CESORN Action

**Notes:**
This is the construct of the presentation that is intended to raise the awareness of a part of the meteorology discipline that inadvertently has not received the attention it deserves, particularly on an interagency basis.  It has remained in the shadows within the weather science community at-large. 

Focused coordinated efforts need to be conducted to improve the end-to-end hydrologic process, again,  those being the products, services and supporting research. There are a number of Federal agencies that have an important role to play in this process. 

## Background

- Feedback from several Federal agency reps, like NWS, USGS, and USACE, indicates that the time is right
- The OFCM is committed to conducting an assessment devoted to hydrometeorology
- Recent events (e.g., Hurricane Katrina, midwest flooding) accentuate the need to examine hydrometeorological impacts and user needs

**Notes:**
It has been pointed out already to the OFCM from several key players that better coordination is needed to expedite hazmat and evacuation programs, to ensure efficient documentation and verification of specific events, and to improve development of software for flood-frequency computations for guidance under climate change, which includes the modeling and monitoring infrastructure. 

These aspects would make Hydrometeorology a more coherent and structured discipline. Currently, there are many people providing good products and services but in a stove-piped manner, as I call it, pockets of support. Some of that support is better than others. However, there is not enough connectivity across these federal agency efforts. The weaknesses of this connectivity were especially highlighted in post-Katrina, and each year with the passage of major rain-producing storms that move from the coastal areas well inland. Usually the pubic loses interest after the excitement of landfall, but the danger to them actually increases. 

The OFCM  is focused on facilitating the development of interagency coordination, to engage the users of this federal information to ensure we understand their needs.  The assessment would allow a collective set of known requirements to be formally established that will define what research is needed to meet them.  

## Discussion

- With regard to hydromet products and services, outreach conducted by the NWS indicates that there is growing need for:
- Uncertainty information for risk management and decision making
- Products in geographically referenced formats
- Expanded use of the Internet and other emerging communications/dissemination technologies

**Notes:**
Over the last decade, technology has allowed society to better manage risk into their decision making. More precise products have become available to fine tune the risk factors at times, BUT not always. Society expects a higher quality product given  improved technology, but there is not always a corresponding one-for-one relationship.

Current technology would allow many of these uncertainty pieces of information to be mitigated by coordinated federal research efforts, resources and analyses brought to bear on improved GIS format products, and the utilization of computer and communication devices (ie. text messaging, instant messaging etc.) to disseminate information in real-time, with better understandable graphics where possible, and to more people. 

## Discussion (2)

- An April 2007 *BAMS* article—Hydrologic Verification—Edwin Wells, et.al., makes two key points:
- Without conducting continuous and comprehensive verification, it is not possible to know what needs to change in order to improve forecast skill
- By focusing hydrologic research on forecasting, a new branch of the hydrologic discipline -- *a hydrologic forecast science --* will develop
- Both are great assessment issues that need to be addressed on a Federal interagency basis

**Notes:**
This recent article points out that Hydrometeorology needs to emerge and be recognized as relevant discipline, separate from the weather forecast but still serves the  public prospective of preparation, protection and recovery. Hydrologic forecast science needs to gain the recognition of traditional forecasts to get the resources to obtain a robust verification process, even though it still falls under the atmospheric forecasting umbrella of Meteorology, either as a direct or derivative affect as the weather situation warrants. 

There are direct cause and effect linkages between weather forecasting and the hydrologic forecast science when it comes to uncertainty information in models. The article defines how internal uncertainties (weaknesses) in weather forecast models are exacerbated in the hydrologic forecast which is external to their respective models. Both the hydrologic forecast and verification of these forecast are crucial assessment issues that need to be addressed. 

## Who should be involved?

- Federal agencies:
- NOAA (NWS and NOS)
- Interior (USGS, BLM, FWS, and NPS)
- Agriculture (WAOB and NRCS)
- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
- Homeland Security (FEMA and USCG)
- EPA
- NASA

**Notes:**
The crosscut of interagency coordination provides the collective bargaining power to organize the various existing pieces of the information pie, improve connectivity of ground-based process and communications links, and push for a comprehensive verification system-of-systems. 

## Who should be involved? (2)

- Users of Federal information:
- National Emergency Management Association
- International Association  of Emergency Managers
- National Hydrologic Warning Council
- American Meteorological Society
- Media (TWC and other TV broadcasters)
- Others

**Notes:**
The JAG needs to ensure that the government stays connected with the needs of the users of federal information. The understanding between the government and the users is a two-way street of communications and services to ensure a more resilient America.  

## Objectives

- Define the needs and requirements for hydrometeorological products, services, and supporting research for the Federal agencies and the customers they support
- Investigate agency plans and alternatives for satisfying new requirements
- Create agency partnerships to better leverage subject-matter expertise and resources to meet the growing needs for better hydromet products and services

**Notes:**
The JAG is targeted to provide the means to establish a coherent and defendable discipline with a solidified set of requirement, the technology and mechanics needed to meet those requirements. One noteworthy interagency effort needs to target the comprehensive verification of hydrologic forecast that incorporates the observations and modeling to improve the creditability of the products and services. In addition, since the internal uncertainty information of weather models has a direct external effect on the hydrologic models a comparison verification as well would seem helpful.

Once the science community knows what requirements and the technological means are needed, anticipated requirements can be budgeted in a responsible programmatic manner to keep up with the growing need for better products and services. This methodology changes the current reactive business practice based upon observations to a more preventive and planned response before natural disasters occur.

## ICMSSR Action

- 	ICMSSR Action Item 2007-1.6:  Crosscutting Assessment.
- 	ICMSSR referred the matter of a proposed crosscutting assessment of federal agency hydrometeorological products, services, and supporting research, to the Committee for Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs (CESORN) for action.

**Notes:**
OFCM sees the JAG coordinating with representatives from DOC, FEMA, USGS, USDA, Bureau of Land Management, etc. to leverage expertise, resources and planned technology, maintain continuity and mitigate redundancy efforts. In addition, the JAG can call upon expertise in other related arenas such as the Office of Science and Technology for Policy (OSTP) and their Subcommittee for Disaster Reduction (SDR) whom have drafted policy-level implementation plans for Flood, Coastal Inundation, Landslide and Debris Flow and Hurricanes. 

These OSTP plans are focused to meet the Grand Challenges established within a report collaborated by scientists and engineers worldwide to identify a 10-year strategy for disaster reduction through science and technology. These Grand Challenges require sustained Federal investment as well as state and local governments, and many other non-governmental elements to transfer implementation actions into common use.

The JAG will stimulate similar coordinated operational efforts necessary to bring about a reliable hydrometeorology forecast verification process and to identify the uncertainty information linkages between the atmospheric and hydrologic sciences. Establishing a robust verification will help reduce the uncertainty in the products and services provided and should ultimately lead to substantial socioeconomic benefits, to include reduced loss of life and property damage.  

## Agency Briefings

- Mr. Glenn Austin, NOAA/NWS
- Mr. Mike Matthews, DHS
- Ms. Marge Davenport, USGS
- Mr. Eric Luebehusen, USDA

**Notes:**
The JAG is targeted to provide the means to establish a coherent and defendable discipline with a solidified set of requirement, the technology and mechanics needed to meet those requirements. One noteworthy interagency effort needs to target the comprehensive verification of hydrologic forecast that incorporates the observations and modeling to improve the creditability of the products and services. In addition, since the internal uncertainty information of weather models has a direct external effect on the hydrologic models a comparison verification as well would seem helpful.

Once the science community knows what requirements and the technological means are needed, anticipated requirements can be budgeted in a responsible programmatic manner to keep up with the growing need for better products and services. This methodology changes the current reactive business practice based upon observations to a more preventive and planned response before natural disasters occur.

## CESORN Action

- Support the need for a crosscutting assessment of Federal agency hydrometeorological products, services, and supporting research
- Establish a Joint Action Group for the National Hydrometeorological Needs Assessment (JAG/NHNA) to conduct this activity

**Notes:**
OFCM sees the JAG coordinating with representatives from DOC, FEMA, USGS, USDA, Bureau of Land Management, etc. to leverage expertise, resources and planned technology, maintain continuity and mitigate redundancy efforts. In addition, the JAG can call upon expertise in other related arenas such as the Office of Science and Technology for Policy (OSTP) and their Subcommittee for Disaster Reduction (SDR) whom have drafted policy-level implementation plans for Flood, Coastal Inundation, Landslide and Debris Flow and Hurricanes. 

These OSTP plans are focused to meet the Grand Challenges established within a report collaborated by scientists and engineers worldwide to identify a 10-year strategy for disaster reduction through science and technology. These Grand Challenges require sustained Federal investment as well as state and local governments, and many other non-governmental elements to transfer implementation actions into common use.

The JAG will stimulate similar coordinated operational efforts necessary to bring about a reliable hydrometeorology forecast verification process and to identify the uncertainty information linkages between the atmospheric and hydrologic sciences. Establishing a robust verification will help reduce the uncertainty in the products and services provided and should ultimately lead to substantial socioeconomic benefits, to include reduced loss of life and property damage.  

## QUESTIONS?

**QUESTIONS?**