# Presentation: 905484

## Dr. Brian P. Flannery
Exxon Mobil Corporation

**Dr. Brian P. Flannery**
**Exxon Mobil Corporation**

**Emerging Climate Science Issues**
**Washington DC, December 3, 2002**

**A Proposal for a More Structured U.S. Program in Climate Science**

**Climate Change Science Program Planning Workshop**
**Washington, DC**
**December 3-5, 2002**

## ExxonMobil’s Views & Actions on Climate Change

**ExxonMobil is taking action to reduce operational emissions and to promote technological innovation by end-users**
**We conduct and support peer-reviewed research to advance climate science (for over 20 years: CMU, The Hadley Centre, Lamont Doherty, MIT, Stanford, over 30 papers published in the peer-reviewed literature, participation in IPCC)**
**Successful development and deployment of innovative, commercially viable  technology is the only path that: **
**Addresses climate change risks**
**Preserves and promotes prosperity**
**Given the 20-70 year horizon for R&D and decisions on deployment... there is every reason for optimism**

**ExxonMobil’s Views & Actions on Climate Change**

## There remain substantial uncertainties in critical climate processes, e.g.  aerosols, clouds, surface hydrology, sea ice, moist convection, ..., that limit our ability to predict future climate change and to attribute currently observed changes to human causes 

There remain gaps in the availability of observations of climate variables, and climate processes... especially over long time periods necessary to distinguish human influences from natural variability

Once changes occur, complex feedbacks affect outcomes in climate models in ways that cannot yet be reliably forecast

**There remain substantial uncertainties in critical **_**climate processes**_**, e.g.  aerosols, clouds, surface hydrology, sea ice, moist convection, ..., that limit our ability to predict future climate change and to attribute currently observed changes to human causes **
**There remain gaps in the availability of **_**observations**_** of climate variables, and climate processes... especially over long time periods necessary to distinguish human influences from natural variability**
**Once changes occur, complex feedbacks affect outcomes in **_**climate models**_** in ways that cannot yet be reliably forecast**

**In an issue filled with fundamental certainty and no obvious long-term solutions it is essential to continue to progress climate science to**
**  ****Assess the pace of response **
**  ****Evaluate the effectiveness of proposed response options:  ****	****	****mitigation and adaptation**

## Many complex changes alter earth’s energy balance

GHG increases are the simplest, but they do not operate alone

Aerosols / cloud effects are critical yet poorly understood

**Forcing Factors that May Affect Climate **

**Many complex changes alter earth’s energy balance**
**GHG increases are the simplest, but they do not operate alone**
**Aerosols / cloud effects are critical yet poorly understood**

**Heating/Cooling changes 1850-2000**

**W/m****2**

## Simulated Climate Variability: Chaos

**0.3**
**0**
**-0.3**

**0                 25                        50                        75                             100**
**                                      ****TIME YEARS**

**GCM control run, no forcing**

**CHANGE IN GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (****°C****)**

**Many climate factors display chaotic behavior**
**	****El Niño, storms, precipitation, clouds **
**  **
**Significant implications for objective measures **
**Prediction**
**Detection**

## Natural Climate Variability: Tree Rings

**  ****Significant natural variability past 1000 years**
**  ****Recent results indicate far larger variability than IPCC 2001**

**MBH: Mann, Bradley Hughes (1999)**
**RCS: Esper, Cook, Schweingruber (2002)**

## Elements of a More Structured Approach

_**Focussed research programs**_** that address specific, significant, known scientific uncertainties... with quantitative deliverables**
_**Enhanced technical and management capacity**_** for an improved national infrastructure to observe, analyze, understand, and predict climate, climate change and its impacts**
_**Improved US and international assessments**_** of climate change**

**The challenge in a trillion dollar public policy issue is to manage scientific progress in a systematic way that seeks to identify key uncertainties for public policy, assess their importance, define and conduct research, and periodically assess progress and redefine approaches**

## Addressing Known Areas of Uncertainty

_**A portion **_**of the US research budget should be targeted to specific programs that address significant, well-known scientific uncertainties in a structured fashion.  For each area assign a responsible agency to:**

**Quantify existing level and nature of uncertainty**
**Explain its policy relevance, e.g. to attribution, climate sensitivity, regional impacts, adaptation, mitigation, ...**
**Define and conduct research to address (hopefully resolve) uncertainty, over an appropriate period tailored to the issue**
**Report progress to Congress (using quantitative deliverables) assessing progress, setbacks, implications**
**Periodically subject program to scientific review and redefine research based on progress and new understanding (in all areas)**

## Areas that Likely Should be Addressed

**Clouds****	****Natural Climate Variability**
**Aerosols****	****Chaos in climate and climate models**
**Water Vapor****	****Climate model validation**
**Sea ice ****	****Attribution using objective measures**
**Surface hydrology ****	****Ability to predict regional climate**
**Carbon Cycle****	****...**

_**Numerous sources identify key research areas**_***:***
***Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade*****, NRC 1999**
***IPCC Assessments***

**Each area requires coordinated, accountable campaigns that marshal observations, development of testable theory, and evaluation in climate models**

## Enhanced Technical and Management Capacity

**The US has lost its lead in climate modelling relevant to policy assessments... but not in climate science. (Example, as a management objective The Hadley Centre works to see that its results become the basis for international assessments)**
**Need for better **_**tools**_** (computational and observational hardware) and **_**management**_** for science-based, objective policy analysis, policy advice:**
**Climate modeling**
**Data acquisition**
**Development of predictions/ projections/ assessments**
**Significant challenge to maintain scientific objectivity **
**Are regional climate predictions ready for prime time**
**How should uncertainty be characterized**
**Can model results be *****Validated***** not just *****Calibrated***

## Improved Assessments of Climate Change

**The IPCC process is inadequate for US needs and circumstances:**
**Aimed primarily to interface to UNFCCC schedules, issues**
**Has become politicized/alienated important potential contributors**
**Imposes forced geographical distribution of authors**
***The Summary for Policymakers reflects less emphasis on communicating the basis for uncertainty and a stronger emphasis on areas of major concern associated with human-induced climate change.” “..., the IPCC SPM could give an impression that the science of global warming is “settled,” even though many uncertainties still remain ***** US National Assessment**
**Periodically conduct a U.S. oriented assessment of climate change**
**Relying primarily on US scientists**
**Tailored to US needs and issues**
**Incorporating results from US R&D, e.g. areas of uncertainty**
**Use results to contribute to IPCC**
**Note: other countries have national advisory processes**
**Work to improve IPCC process **

## An Enhanced US Climate Science Program

_**A package of reinforcing process improvements**_
**Focussed research under responsible, accountable agency leadership to address well-known areas of uncertainty with quantitative deliverables and scientific oversight: aim to **
**Resolve areas of uncertainty**
**Understand their policy implications**
**Enhanced hardware and management capacity to provide assessments and policy advice on climate change**
**Improved national and international climate assessment processes**

**It remains essential also to continue to fund blue-sky, curiosity or technologically driven scientific research that may lead to unanticipated insight, results and breakthroughs**