# Presentation: 160867

## Copper Evolution

- David Reed, CTO & SVP, Strategic Planning
- CableLabs
- Presentation to
- FCC Technological Advisory Council III
-  Thursday April 17, 2003
- Washington, D.C.

## Key Messages

- Broadband access market continues to grow
- Broadband usage by subscribers on the rise as well
- Cable and DSL technologies enable affordable broadband access for residential customers
- Competitive, facilities-based race to develop technology that delivers more bandwidth, more services, and lowest-cost equipment

## Current Internet Access Market

|  | 2002E | Penetration |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Residential & Business DSL | 6,145,182 | 10% |
| Cable Modem | 11,223,778 | 17% |
| Dial up | 48,092,293 | 73% |
| Total | 65,461,253 | 100% |

- Sources:  Morgan Stanley, 12/27/02; Leichtman Research Group, 3/31/03

- Broadband

- Narrowband

## Residential Broadband Market Continues To Grow

- Source:  Morgan Stanley, December 27,2002

- Broadband
- Subscribers
- (000s)

## Residential Broadband Usage Growing As Well

- CableLabs estimates that average subscriber usage increasing about 3% per month
- Most subscribers consume less than the average traffic (total traffic/subscribers)
- Top 4% of users responsible for roughly 50% of the traffic generated over broadband networks
- 60% of cable modem subscribers use less than one gigabyte per month

## Gross Traffic Flow is Nearly Symmetric

- Average downstream/upstream data flow symmetry is 1.4 and trending downwards

**Symmetry=Downstream/Upstream**

**0.00**

**0.50**

**1.00**

**1.50**

**2.00**

**2.50**

**May-01**

**Jun-01**

**Jul-01**

**Aug-01**

**Sep-01**

## Platform Evolution1st Generation

- Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) 1.0
- Enables Internet access over cable (Email and web)
- Worldwide cable industry standard (SCTE, ITU-T)
- 230 cable modems Certified by CableLabs, 28 CMTS (headend modem) Qualified
- 18-million modems shipped
- Modem price declined from $300 in 1998 to $50 in 2002

- Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL)
- Enables Internet access over telephone network (Email and web)
- Worldwide telecom industry standard (ITU)
- 25-million user chipsets
- Modem price est. $75-$100

## Platform Evolution 2nd Generation

- DOCSIS 1.1
- Backward compatible
- ITU standard
- Available today:  73 CM Certified, 24 CMTS Qualified
- Feature enhancements
- “Quality of Service” (QoS) for services like PacketCableTM VoIP
- Improved security against theft of service and secure software downloading capability
- Account Management for usage and event-based billing

- ADSL2
- Backward compatible
- ITU standard
- Available in 2003
- Feature enhancements
- 50 Kbps increase in data rate
- Extends signal reach by 600 feet
- Support of packet-based services like Ethernet
- Support of Channelized Voice over DSL

## Platform Evolution 3rd Generation

- DOCSIS 2.0
- Backward compatible
- ITU standard
- Available today:  17 CM Certified, 2 CMTS Qualified
- More upstream capacity (peer-to-peer applications soak up _all_ available capacity)
- 6X more upstream capacity than DOCSIS 1.0
- 3X more than DOCSIS 1.1
- Improved robustness against interference (A-TDMA and S-CDMA)

- ADSL2+
- Backward compatible
- ITU standard
- Available in 2003
- Feature enhancements
- Doubles downstream bandwidth for shorter length phone lines
- Capability to reduce crosstalk

## Cable Bandwidth

- DOCSIS 2.0

- DOCSIS 1.0/1.1

- Raw
- Data
- Rate
- (Mbps)

- Upstream Rates

- Downstream Rates

## DSL Bandwidth

- Raw
- Data
- Rate
- (Mbps)

## Platform Evolution What’s Next?

- DOCSIS
- Continue down the cost curve
- Continue innovations to improve MAC/PHY for higher capacity and spectrum utilization
- Use embedded modems to enable more IP-based devices for multiple services

- ADSL
- T1E1 developing sym-metric 5 Mbps service
- Implement dynamic spectrum management for 10-20% rate or reach improvement
- Implement new modulation techniques, line codes for 10-20% rate or reach improvement

## Other Emerging Cable Service Platforms over DOCSIS

**DOCSIS Platform**

**Internet**
**Access**

- Packet
- CableTM

- Cable
- HomeTM

- Future
- IP-based
- Video, Voice
- & Data
- Services

- Other
- Internet
- Appliance
- Services

## Policy Implications

- Robust, facilities-based competition currently underway between cable and DSL
- Technology advances and increasing broadband usage leading to new service tiers differentiated by usage characteristics
- In reality, no simple demarcations across protocol layers – deploying new services require tightly coupled development of the entire protocol stack