# Presentation: 054642

## Beta Test of a Prototype

_**Dy**_**namical **_**M**_**odel Track Prediction**
_**E**_**valuation **_**S**_**ystem for the Atlantic**
**(DYMES)**

- Mark Boothe and Dr. Russell Elsberry
- Department of Meteorology
- Naval Postgraduate School

- LCDR Laura Salvador
- Tropical Prediction Center
- National Hurricane Center

- Funding provided by:
- USWRP

- Acknowledgments:
- Jim Peak and Dan Martinez
- Computer Sciences Corporation

**Environment Structure **

**TC  Structure **

**Synoptic ****Pattern**

**Synoptic**** Region **

**Intensity**

**Size**

**Transitional Mechanisms  **

**Environmental Effects**

**TC-Environment Transformations**

***Determines the direction & speed of the steering flow that moves the TC***** **

***TC-independent processes that change environment structure (steering)***** **

***TC-dependent processes that change environmental structure (steering) and sometimes TC structure ***** **

- Inputs to TC-Environment Transformations
- Results of Transitional Mechanisms

***Determines best steering level***** **

***Key factor in ***
***TC-Environment Transformations***** **

**TC Motion Meteorology Knowledge Base Framework**

**Environment Structure **

**TC  Structure **

**Synoptic ****Pattern**

**Synoptic**** Region **

**Intensity**

**Size**

**Transitional Mechanisms  **

**Environmental Effects**

**TC-Environment Transformations**

- Inputs to TC-Environment Transformations
- Results of Transitional Mechanisms

**TC Motion Meteorology Knowledge Base Framework**

**Equatorial Westerlies (EW)****	**
**Tropical Easterlies (TE)**
**Poleward Flow (PF) / Equatorward Flow (EF)**
**Midlatitude Westerlies (MW) / Easterlies (ME)**

**Exposed Low-level (XL)**
**Tropical Depression (TD)**
**Tropical Storm (TS)**
**Hurricane (H)**

**Midget (M)    Small (S)**
**Average(A)    Large (L)**

**Advection by Environment (ADV)**
**Upper-level Low Evolutions:**
**   ****Upper-level Low Formation (ULF)**
**   ****Upper-level Low Dissipation (ULD)**
**Midlatitude System Evolutions:**
**   ****Cyclogenesis (MCG)**
**   ****Cyclolysis (MCL)**
**   ****Anticyclogenesis (MAG)**
**   ****Anticyclolysis (MAL)**

**Beta Effect-Related:**
**   ****Beta-Effect Propagation (BEP)**
**   ****Ridge Modification by TC (RMT)**
**   ****Reverse Trough Formation (RTF)**
**Cyclone Interactions:     Midlatitude-Related:**
**   ****Direct (DCI)                     Response to Vertical**
**   ****Semi-direct (SCI)                Shear (RVS)**
**   ****Indirect (ICI)                    Baroclinic Cyclone**
**                                                 ****Interaction (BCI)**

**Standard (S)        Upper-level Low (U)**
**Poleward (P)               Midlatitude (M)**

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## Slide 6

## Slide 7

## Slide 8

## AVNO

**AVNO**

**GFDN**

**UKMO**

**NGPS**

**GFDL**

## Slide 10

## E-DCI

**E-DCI**
**degrading**
**UKMO ?**

## Excessive

**Excessive**
**Direct**
**Cyclone**
**Interaction**
**(E-DCI)**

## E-RMT

**E-RMT**
**degrading**
**AVNO ?**

## RMT

**RMT**

## Slide 15

## Slide 16

## Slide 17

## Slide 18

## Slide 19

## Slide 20

## Slide 21

## Verifying

**Verifying**
**position**

**Value added: 48 n mi**

## Slide 23

## Slide 24

## Slide 25

## Rejected at least one

- dynamical model
- (SCON = NCON)
- and 72h forecast
- verified
- _27 times_
- Improved   11
- Degraded   15
- Equal           1

- Average Errors (n mi):
- NCON:  211
- SCON:  222

## AVNO

**AVNO**

**GFDL**

**GFDN**

**UKMO**

**NGPS**

## Slide 28

## E-DCI

**E-DCI**
**degrading**
**GFDN ?**

## Excessive

**Excessive**
**Direct**
**Cyclone**
**Interaction**
**(E-DCI)**

## E-BCI

**E-BCI**
**degrading**
**GFDL ?**

## BCI

**BCI**

## Slide 33

## Slide 34

## Slide 35

## Slide 36

## Slide 37

## AVNO

**AVNO**

**GFDL**

**GFDN**

**UKMO**

**NGPS**

**Degraded**
**By**
**I-BCI ?**

**Degraded**
**By**
**E-BCI ?**

## (AVNO)

**(AVNO)**

**(GFDL)**

## Slide 40

## Slide 41

## Slide 42

## Verifying

**Verifying**
**position**

## Slide 44

## Slide 45

## 63%

- _Atlantic 2002_
- Ran DYMES
- 191 times

***63%***

***12%***

***25%***

- _Assigned:_
- Small Spread
- 120

- Compensating
- Errors
- 23

- One error
- Mechanism
- 48

## PLANS

- Complete the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific model traits knowledge bases for 2001 and 2002
- Review the error mechanism assignment rules
- Provide on-line training module by late May