# Presentation: 216431

## The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status

**Update prepared by**
**Climate Prediction Center / NCEP**
**09 February 2009**

**For more information, visit:**
**http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/African_Monsoons/precip_monitoring.shtml**

## Outline

**  ****Highlights**
**  ****Recent Evolution and Current Conditions**
**  ****NCEP GEFS Forecasts**
**  ****Summary**

## Highlights:Last 7 Days

**During the past week rainfall was above normal over southern Angola, western parts of Zambia, northern parts of Botswana, northeastern part of Mozambique, northern Namibia and parts of the South Africa Republic, over much of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and southern Uganda. **
**Rainfall was below normal over northwestern Madagascar, much of central and southern Mozambique, northern Angola and northern parts of the DRC. The rest of the continent experienced rainfall close to the normal conditions.**

## Rainfall Patterns: Last 180 Days

**Over the past 180 days, rainfall was above or near average over gulf of guinea countries, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Zambia, Mozambique and Madagascar . Rainfall was also above or near average in western Nigeria, CAR, central DRC, central Ethiopia, southeastern Angola and  northern Zimbabwe. Below average rainfall was recorded over Gabon, northern Angola, southern DRC, central Sudan, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and southern parts of the South Africa Republic. **

## Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days

**During the past 90 days, rainfall was below  average over southern Cameroon, Gabon, northern Angola, southern DRC, parts of  western Uganda, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia and southern parts of South Africa Republic. Above average rainfall was recorded over southern Angola, northern Namibia, much of  Zambia, Zimbabwe,   Mozambique and southern Madagascar.**

## Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days

**During the last 30 days, rainfall was below average over parts of western DRC, eastern Zimbabwe,  eastern Tanzania, parts of southwestern Angola, southern Botswana, parts of South Africa Republic and much of northern Madagascar. Above average rainfall was recorded over Gabon, eastern DRC, southeastern Angola, much of Zambia, western Zimbabwe, northern Botswana, northern Mozambique and northern parts of the South Africa Republic. **

## Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days

**During the past week rainfall was above normal over southern Angola, western parts of Zambia, northern parts of Botswana, northeastern part of Mozambique, northern Namibia and parts of the South Africa Republic, over much of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and southern Uganda. Rainfall was below normal over northwestern Madagascar, much of central and southern Mozambique, northern Angola and northern parts of the DRC. The rest of the continent experienced rainfall close to the normal conditions.**

## Recent Rainfall Evolution

**Recent Rainfall Evolution**

**	****Daily rainfall evolution during the last 30 day evolution showed transition to above average rainfall  over the regions adjoining southeastern Angola, Northern Namibia and northern Botswana (bottom left). Above average rainfall is also recorded over the region bordering the DRC and Tanzania (top right).  However, below average rainfall was recorded over much of eastern Tanzania in spite of  the latest spells (top right). Below average rainfall was  recorded over northwestern parts of Madagascar (bottom right).**

## Atmospheric Circulation:Last 7 Days

**Over the past 7 days, the 850 hPa wind anomaly featured a cyclonic circulation over the northwestern Africa and a southerly flow over Mozambique channel into the southern Africa via Mozambique coast (left panel). The 200hPa anomaly  featured an anticyclonic circulation centered over southwest Africa  and a cyclonic circulation in the northeastern Atlantic (right  panel).**

## NCEP GEFS Model ForecastsNon-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance Week-1: Valid 10 - 16 February, 2009Week-2: Valid  17 - 23 February, 2009

**For week-1, the global ensemble forecast system (GFS) suggests 90% chance for precipitation to exceed 50 mm over western Gabon,  southern Angola, Zambia, northern Mozambique, southeastern parts of the South African Republic  and northern parts of Madagascar.  For week-2, there is a high chance for precipitation to exceed 50 mm over Gabon,  Angola,  and eastern parts of the South Africa Republic and Madagascar.**

## Experimental Week-1 & Week-2 Precipitation Outlooks

**Week-2 Outlook       Valid 17 - 23 February, 2009**

**Week-1 Outlook       Valid 10 – 16 February, 2009**

**Due to the projected suppressed phase of the MJO over Africa, climatology is expected over southern Africa.**
**Confidence:**** **Moderate

**Due to the projected suppressed phase of the MJO and weak local circulation features, climatology is expected in the region south of the Equator.**.
**Confidence:** Moderate** **

## Summary

**During the past week rainfall was above normal over southern Angola, western parts of Zambia, northern parts of Botswana, northeastern part of Mozambique, northern Namibia and parts of the South Africa Republic, over much of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and southern Uganda. Rainfall was below normal over northwestern Madagascar, much of central and southern Mozambique, northern Angola and northern parts of the DRC. The rest of the continent experienced rainfall close to the normal conditions.**
**During the last 30 days, rainfall was below average over parts of western DRC, eastern Zimbabwe,  eastern Tanzania, parts of southwestern Angola, southern Botswana, parts of South Africa Republic and much of northern Madagascar. Above average rainfall was recorded over Gabon, eastern DRC, southeastern Angola, much of Zambia, western Zimbabwe, northern Botswana, northern Mozambique and northern parts of the South Africa Republic. **
**For week-1 as well as week-2, due to the projected suppressed phase of the MJO over Africa, Climatology is expected.**