# Presentation: 491947

## The Rapidly Expanding Role of LNG 

**EIA Midterm Energy Outlook**
**and Modeling Conference**
**        ****Washington, DC**
**          ****April 12, 2005**

**   **

**in North America**

***       ******Siting Issues***

***        ******in the Development of U.S. LNG Receiving Terminals***

**            ****Phyllis Martin**
**Energy Information Administration**
**      ****Phyllis.Martin@eia.doe.gov**
**               ****202-586-9592**

## Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports,

**1960-2025 (trillion cubic feet)**

**15%**

**28%**

**Net imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

- Source: *Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

**21.8 Tcf**

**30.7 Tcf**

## U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2025(trillion cubic feet)

**History**

**Industrial***

**Electric Generators**

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Transportation****

**Projections**

- Source: *Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

-  * Includes lease and plant fuel

- ** Includes pipeline fuel

## U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production, 1990-2025 (trillion cubic feet)

**History**

**Projections**

**Associated/Dissolved**

**Non-associated Offshore**

**Nonassociated**
**Onshore Conventional**

**Onshore Unconventional**

**Alaska**

- Source: *Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## Net U.S. Imports of Natural Gas, 1970-2025(trillion cubic feet)

**History**

**Projections**

**Canada**

**Liquefied Natural Gas**

**Mexico**

- Source: *Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## Slide 6

## Slide 7

## U.S. LNG Imports by Country, 1992-2004(billion cubic feet)

**Nigeria**

**Qatar**

**Other**

**Australia**

**Trinidad and Tobago**

**Algeria**

- Source: EIA

**Oman**

**Malaysia**

## Current U.S. LNG Import Terminals

**      ****Lake Charles, Louisiana**
- 6.3 Bcf Storage Capacity
- Regasification Capacity:
- Peak: 1.2 Bcf per day
- Baseload: 630 MMcf per day

*Source: Energy Information Administration*

**Gulf of Mexico, Offshore**
-    Shipboard
-    Regasification Capacity:
-    Peak: 500 MMcf per day
-    Baseload: 500 MMcf per day

## Existing, Proposed and Potential North American

- 26

_**CONSTRUCTED**_
**A. Everett, MA :  **1.035 Bcfd  (Tractebel - DOMAC)
**B. Cove Point, MD :  **1.0 Bcfd  (Dominion - Cove Point LNG)
**C. Elba Island, GA :  **0.68 Bcfd  (El Paso - Southern LNG)
**D. Lake Charles, LA :  **1.0 Bcfd  (Southern Union - Trunkline LNG)
**E. Gulf of Mexico:** 0.5 Bcfd,  (Gulf Gateway Energy Bridge - Excelerate Energy)
_**APPROVED BY FERC**_
**1. Lake Charles, LA:**  1.1 Bcfd (Southern Union - Trunkline LNG)** **
**2. Hackberry, LA : **1.5 Bcfd,  (Sempra Energy)
**3. Bahamas : ** 0.84 Bcfd,  (AES Ocean Express)*
**4. Bahamas : ** 0.83 Bcfd,   (Calypso Tractebel)*
**5. Freeport, TX : ** 1.5 Bcfd,   (Cheniere/Freeport LNG Dev.)
**6. Sabine, LA :  **2.6 Bcfd (Cheniere LNG)
**7. Elba Island, GA:  **0.54 Bcfd (El Paso - Southern LNG)
_**APPROVED BY MARAD/COAST GUARD**_
**8. Port Pelican:** 1.6 Bcfd,  (Chevron Texaco)
**9. ****Louisiana Offshore : ** 1.0 Bcfd (Gulf Landing - Shell)
_**PROPOSED TO FERC**_
**10. Fall River, MA :** 0.8 Bcfd,  (Weaver's Cove Energy/Hess LNG)
**11. Long Beach, CA :** 0.7 Bcfd,  (Mitsubishi/ConocoPhillips - Sound Energy Solutions)
**12. Corpus Christi, TX : ** 2.6 Bcfd,  (Cheniere LNG)
**13. Corpus Christi, TX :  **1.0 Bcfd (Vista Del Sol - ExxonMobil)
**14. Sabine, TX :  **1.0 Bcfd (Golden Pass - ExxonMobil)
**15. Logan Township, NJ :  **1.2 Bcfd (Crown Landing LNG - BP)
**16. Bahamas : ** 0.5 Bcfd,  (Seafarer - El Paso/FPL )
**17. Corpus Christi, TX**:  1.0 Bcfd (Ingleside Energy - Occidental Energy Ventures)
**18.** **Providence, RI :  **0.5 Bcfd (Keyspan & BG LNG)
**19.**** Port Arthur, TX:**  1.5 Bcfd (Sempra)
**20. Cove Point, MD :  **0.8 Bcfd  (Dominion)
**21. LI Sound, NY:  **1.0 Bcfd (Broadwater Energy - TransCanada/Shell)
**22.** **Pascagoula, MS:**  1.0 Bcfd (Gulf LNG Energy LLC)
**23. Bradwood, OR:**  1.0 Bcfd (Northern Star LNG - Northern Star Natural Gas LLC)
**24.** **Pascagoula, MS:**  1.3 Bcfd (Casotte Landing - ChevronTexaco)
**25. Cameron, LA:  **3.3 Bcfd (Creole Trail LNG - Cheniere LNG)
**26. Port Lavaca, TX:  **1.0 Bcfd (Calhoun LNG - Gulf Coast LNG Partners)
_**PROPOSED TO MARAD/COAST GUARD**_
**27. California Offshore**: 1.5 Bcfd (Cabrillo Port - BHP Billiton)
**28. So. California Offshore :** 0.5 Bcfd,  (Crystal Energy)
**29. Louisiana Offshore : ** 1.0 Bcfd (Main Pass McMoRan Exp.)
**30. Gulf of Mexico:**  1.0 Bcfd (Compass Port - ConocoPhillips)
**31. ****Gulf of Mexico:**  2.8 Bcfd (Pearl Crossing - ExxonMobil)
**32. Gulf of Mexico:  **1.5 Bcfd (Beacon Port Clean Energy Terminal** - **ConocoPhillips)
_**POTENTIAL SITES IDENTIFIED BY PROJECT SPONSORS**_
**33. Coos Bay, OR:  **0.13 Bcfd,  (Energy Projects Development)
**34. Somerset, MA: ** 0.65 Bcfd (Somerset LNG)
**35. California - Offshore:**  0.75 Bcfd,  (Chevron Texaco)
**36. Pleasant Point, ME :**  0.5 Bcf/d (Quoddy Bay, LLC)
**37. St. Helens, OR:**  0.7 Bcfd (Port Westward LNG LLC)
**38. Offshore Boston, MA:**  0.8 Bcfd (Northeast Gateway - Excelerate Energy)
**39. Galveston, TX:**  1.2 Bcfd (Pelican Island - BP)
**40. Philadelphia, PA:**  0.6 Bcfd (Freedom Energy Center - PGW)
**41. Astoria, OR:  **1.0 Bcfd (Skipanon LNG - Calpine)
**42. Freeport, TX: ** 1.5 Bcfd, (Cheniere/Freeport LNG Dev. - Expansion)
**43. Offshore Boston, MA:**  0.4 Bcfd (Neptune LNG - Tractebel)
_**CANADIAN APPROVED AND POTENTIAL TERMINALS**_
**44. St. John, NB :**  1.0 Bcfd,  (Canaport - Irving Oil)
**45. Point Tupper, NS**  1.0 Bcf/d  (Bear Head LNG - Anadarko)
**46. Quebec City, QC :  **0.5 Bcfd (Project Rabaska - Enbridge/Gaz Met/Gaz de France)
**47. Rivière-du- Loup, QC:**  0.5 Bcfd (Cacouna Energy - TransCanada/PetroCanada)
**48. Kitimat, BC:**  0.61 Bcfd (Galveston LNG)
**49. Prince Rupert, BC:** 0.30 Bcfd (WestPac Terminals)
**50. Goldboro, NS**  1.0 Bcfd (Keltic Petrochemicals)
_**MEXICAN APPROVED AND POTENTIAL TERMINALS**_
**51. Altamira, Tamulipas : ** 0.7 Bcfd,  (Shell/Total/Mitsui)**
**52. ****Baja California, MX :**  1.0 Bcfd,  (Sempra & Shell)**
**53. Baja California - Offshore :**  1.4 Bcfd,  (Chevron Texaco)
**54. Lázaro Cárdenas, MX :  **0.5 Bcfd (Tractebel/Repsol)
**55. Puerto Libertad, MX:  **1.3 Bcfd (Sonora Pacific LNG)

**Existing, Proposed and Potential North American**
**LNG Terminals**

**As of March 25, 2005**

*FERC*

*Office of Energy Projects*

- A

- 3

- 4

- 44

- 16

- 51

- 12

- 27

- 11

- 29

- 28

- 45

- 46

- 36

- 54

- 9

- 52

- 53

- 18

- B

- 35

- 33

- 1

- 20

- 47

- 30

- 17

- 55

- US Jurisdiction
-     FERC
-        US Coast Guard

- 49

- 48

- *    *US pipeline approved; LNG terminal pending in Bahamas*
*** These projects have been approved by the Mexican and Canadian authorities*

- 50

- 22

- 10

- 34

- 21

- 40

- 15

- 25

- 41

- 7

- C

- 2

- D,1

- 19

- 14

- 31

- 32

- 8

- 5,42

- 13

- 6

- 39

- 43

- 38

- 23

- 37

- E

## U.S. LNG Imports, 1990-2025(trillion cubic feet)

**History**

**Projections**

**New terminals**

**Existing terminals**

- Source: 2005 *Annual Energy Outlook*

## Regional LNG Imports at New Terminals,2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 (billion cubic feet)

**Regional LNG Imports at New Terminals,****2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 (billion cubic feet)**

**Mid **

**FL**

**South**

**New**

** ****South**

**East**

**AZ/NM**

**Mountain**

**WA/OR**

**CA**

**Mexico into US**

**(2007)**

**(2006)**

**(2010)**

**(2010)**

**(2016)**

**(2020)**

**(2020)**

**(20xx) – Start year of first new terminal**

- Source: EIA A*nnual Energy Outlook 2005*

**Florida**

**South Atlantic**

**Middle Atlantic**

**New England**

**East South Central**

**West South Central**

**Central**

**Atlantic**

**Atlantic**

**West **

**England**

**Central**

**South**

**West **

**North**

**Central**

**Central**

**North**

**East**

## Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices, 1970-2025 (2003 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

**History**

**Projections**

- Source: EIA *Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

**Reference case ****$4.79**

-  **Restricted Supply ****$6.29**

**Slow technology ****$5.18**

**Rapid Technology ****$4.35**

## Comparison of Net LNG Import Forecasts (trillion cubic feet)

**EIA**

**GII**

**EEA**

**PIRA**

**History**

**Projections**

**DB**

**EVA**

**NARG**

- Source: 2005 *Annual Energy Outlook*

**SEER**

**NPC/**

**NPC/**

**BF**

**RP**

## Summary

**By 2025, almost 75 percent of net U.S. imports is expected to come from LNG, as Canadian imports decline. **
**Siting issues are a key component in determining the rate of penetration of new LNG facilities into the marketplace.**
**NIMBY issues and safety concerns must be addressed if LNG is to become a viable source of supplemental supply for North American markets.**

_**Summary**_

**                 ****Phyllis Martin**
**Energy Information Administration**
**       ****Phyllis.Martin@eia.doe.gov**