# Presentation: 379862

**Costs of Extreme Weather Events**

**UNEP PROJECTIONS: ****$150 BILLION annual losses from ****	****	****	****	****extreme weather events with ****	****	****	****	****CURRENT TRENDS**** **

_**THE CONTEXT**_

## CLIMATE CHANGE

**	**
**	**_**ECOLOGICAL INSTABILITY**_
**	****	**_**RELEASE OF PESTS & **_**	****	****	****	****	**_**PATHOGENS**_** ****	**_**EIDs**_

**Winter Warming**
**Altered Timing of Seasons**
**   ****Weather Patterns & Anomalies**
**More Winter Precip Falling as Rain **
**  ****Freeze/Thaw Cycles**
**Wide Swings in Weather & Sequential Extremes ****	****	****	**

## Framework for Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change

**Social **

**Ecological**

**Global**

**Framework for Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change**

**Disease**

**Vectors**

***Systems***

**OPPORTUNISTIC **
**INFECTIONS**

## ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS & DISEASE

**	****FUNCTIONAL GROUPS – diversity of predators, ****	****	****	****prey, competitors, recyclers, N fixers**
***r*****-strategists:****	****weeds, insects, rodents, fungi, bacteria, viruses **
**	****	*****	******- opportunistic, pioneering species. Huge broods, ***
***	******	******	******rapid generation times, good dispersal mechanisms, ******	******	******	******good colonizers of disturbed environments.***
***	******	******	******“******Generalists.” ***
***K-*****strategists: ****predators****	**
**	****	****	****- *****large bodies, small broods, reproduce later in life.  ***
***	******	******	******Many are “specialists” and good******	******competitors in stable ******	******	******	******environment*****s**.

## TYPES OF CHANGE

_**Linear**_** ****– ****Chemicals and Cancer**
**	**
_**Exponential**_** – ****Organisms,****	****e.g., Microbes &Vectors **** ****	**
**	****	****	****	****	****Orders of magnitude**
_**Non-linear**_** – ****Ecosystems & Global Systems**

## THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE

_**THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE**_

**DEEP OCEAN WARMING **
** ****-- 2 miles down**
**ICE MELTING**
**WATER VAPOR RISING**
***Temperature Minimums***
***Extreme Weather Events***
***Biological Responses***

_**INFECTIOUS DISEASE IN HISTORY**_
**     ****PLAGUE****	****  541  AD**
**	****	****1346  AD****	**
**	****	****1665  AD****	**
**THRESHOLDS & WAVES**
**	****	****     **

**1830s Resurgence **
**TB, Smallpox, Cholera**

**1630s****	****1800****	****1830s          1900               1970s****	****	****	****	**

## “Genetic Shift in Photoperiodic Response Correlated with Global Warming”

**	****	****	****	****--****Bradshaw & Holzapfel, PNAS 2001**

***Wyeomyia smithii  *****(p****itcher-plant mosquito) –**
**	****	****	****has shifted toward ****southern phenotype**
**	****	****	**
**	****	****	****-- S****horter daylengths (southern) to cue **
**	****	****	****     ****for diapause, with delayed onset  of winters **
**	****	****	**
**	****	****	****--  Fastest evolutionary response has occurred **
**	****	****     ****in ****northern populations **
**	****	****	****(reflecting  TMINs in Boreal latitudes)**
** ****	****	**
**	****	****	****	**

## CHANGES 

**CHANGES **
**IN **
**MONTANE **
**REGIONS**

## SYNERGIES & SURPRISES

**CO****2**** and Ragweed Pollen**
**Thresholds and Vector Populations**
**Extreme Weather Events**
**   –****Travel Conditions & Accidents**
**Agriculture **
**– ****EWEs, Pests and Pathogens**
**AIDS and Prolonged Drought**
** – ****EIDs and Climate Change****  **

## WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL HAZARDS  

_**and TRAUMA **_
**	****> Fog and Road Travel**** ****	****	****      > ****Ice Instability & Avalanches****	**
**	****> Ice Storms from Winter Rain      > Tornadoes**
**	****> Early & Late Winter Storms       ****> ****Wind Storms**
**	****>**** Floods & Mudslides****	****	****      > ****Hail Storms**** ****	****	****	****	****	**
**	****DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE – Water Q&Q, Trauma, ****	****	****	****	****	****	****	****  Impeded Travel**

## AIR POLLUTION 

**ASTHMA**

- _ _
- _ _

_**AIR POLLUTION **_
_**AND CLIMATE CHANGE**_

- 	**Indoor pollutants**

**Socioeconomic/emotional factors**

**Ground-level ****Ozone**
**(temperature- & UV-dependant)**

**Tree and Weed ****Pollen**
**    ****Floods & Mold          **

**Diesel**** Particulates**
**(& pollen)**

**Heat Island Effect**

**Fires & ****Haze**

**Heatwaves**** **
**& **
**Unhealthy Air Masses**

_***OUTDOOR: FF-RELATED***_

## WNV: A DISEASE OF NATURE

**INFECTED 230 SPECIES IN 43 US STATES AND CANADA, SUMMER 2002 **
**   ****OVER ****120 BIRD *****SPP******.***
**  ****12,000 ****HORSES – 33% MORTALITY**
**  ****ZOO**** PENGUINS & MACAQUES**
**  ****REPTILES – FLA. ALIGATORS**
**	**

## EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES				Humans

**    ****Wildlife****	****	****	****	****	****	****Forests**
**	****	****	****	****	**
**	****    **
**	****Crops**

**Marine Life**

## DISEASES OF TREES

**West Coast US - ****fungi (*****Phytophthora)***
**Alaska -****spruce bark beetles**** now **
**have two  generations/year ****	**
**East Coast  US - ****hemlock woolly **
**adelgid**** insects moving **
**north with each warm winter**
***Diseased and denuded trees become ***
***	******more susceptible to drought and fire.***
***	******Conversely, droughts increase vulnerability to pests******.***

## CLIMATE  CHANGE, EIDS and HABITAT 

- Coral Reefs
- Forest Fragments and Fires
- Coastal Wetlands
- Montane Regions
- Arctic Ringed Seals and Polar Bears

## EIDs in DEVELOPING NATIONS

**	**
**	****EIDs can travel – “*****microbial traffic*****”**
**	****EIDs can destabilize nations and affect the most ****	****	****educated –****	****e.g., H.I.V./AIDS**
**	****EIDs can affect Troops, Travel, Tourism and Trade**
**	****	****	****	**
**	****	****	****	*****EIDs and Climate Change can affect***
***	******	******	******	******the safety & security of investments ***
***	******	******	******	******and markets in developing nations.***

## THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE

- Cautionary Science
- Bias Towards the Null
- Systems-based Analyses
- Bayesian Analysis & Prior Probabilities
- Meta-analyses & Cross-disciplinary Collaboration
- Patterns & Emerging Trends
- Precautionary Decision Making

## BENEFITS & OPPORTUNITIES

**     ****Energy Efficient (EE) & Renewable Energy (RE) Technologies**
**     ****Distributed Generation**** **
**      ****Infrastructure Retrofitting and Adaptation **
**	****“****Green Buildings”**
**     ****Transport and Transit Systems**
**     ****Ecological Reconstruction**

_**THE ENGINE OF GROWTH**_
**for the**_** **_
_**21**__**st**__** CENTURY**_

## Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001

**Key New Findings**
_**Biological Systems are Reacting**__** **_
**	****– ****Latitude and Altitude Shifts**
**Plant migrations**
**Insects and butterflies**
**Timing of bird egglaying**
**Marine species distribution**