# Presentation: 547532

## Middle East Energy in the World Context

**Energy Information Administration**

**Cornell University Energy Security Conference**
**November 10, 2006**
**Ithaca, NY**

***Middle East Energy in the World Context***

## World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1980-2030

**(2004 dollars per barrel)**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

**Reference**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)

**World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980-2030****(quadrillion Btu)**

**Oil**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**33%**

**27%**

**9%**

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**26%**

**5%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

- History

- Projections

**38%**

**24%**

**24%**

**8%**

**6%**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

##  World Oil Consumption,2003, 2015, and 2030 (million barrels per day)

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

**2003**

**2015**

**2030**

**49**

**32**

**54**

**45**

**60**

**58**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Oil Consumption, 2003-2030(million barrels per day)

**98**

**104**

**118**

**92**

**80**

**111**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

## World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2006(billion barrels)

*Oil & Gas Journal*, Vol. 103, No. 47 (December 19, 2005).

**World Total =**
**1,293 Billion Barrels**

## Share of World Oil Reserves, 2005

**Middle East**

**Western Hemisphere**

**Europe/FSU**

**Asia & Oceania**

**Africa**

## Top World Oil-Producing Regions, 2005(million barrels per day)

## World Liquids Production(million barrels per day)

**Non-OPEC Conventional**

**OPEC Conventional**

**Unconventional**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

## World Unconventional Liquids Production, 2005 and 2030(million barrels per day)

**2030**

**2005**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Crude Oil  Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Lower 48 Onshore**

**Alaska**

**Deepwater Offshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

**Total**

**Shallow Water Offshore**

## U.S. Unconventional Oil Production, 2030(million barrels per day)

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

**59.7**

## U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,**
**1960-2030 (million barrels per day)**

**Consumption**

**Domestic Supply**

**Net Imports**** **

**58%**

**62%**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

- History

- Projections

##  World Natural Gas Consumption,2003, 2015, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

**2003**

**2015**

**2030**

**50**

**45**

**63**

**72**

**74**

**108**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2006, andCumulative Consumption, 2003-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

**World Natural Gas Reserves =**
**6,112 Trillion Cubic Feet**
**World Cumulative Consumption,**
** ****2003-2030 =**
** ****3,671 Trillion Cubic Feet**

**Reserves**

**Cumulative Consumption, 2003-2030**

*International Energy Outlook 2006 *and* Oil & Gas Journal*, Vol. 103, No. 47 (December 19, 2005)

## Share of World Natural Gas Reserves, 2006

**Middle East**

**Africa**

**Asia & Oceania**

**Europe/FSU**

**Western Hemisphere**

## Top Natural Gas-Producing Regions, 2005(trillion cubic feet)

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**15%**

**21%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2004 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

- History

- Projections

## Global Proved Oil Reserves Ownership

**Global Proved Oil Reserves Ownership**

**(1.1 trillion barrels)**

**Middle East NOCs**

**69.6%**

**Africa NOCs**

**6.6%**

**Russia NOCs**

**6.8%**

**Latin America NOCs**

**9.8%**

**Europe**** NOCs**

**1.0%**

**Exxon/Mobil**

**1.0%**

**Asia NOCs**

**2.1%**

**BP**

**0.9%**

**Chevron**

**0.9%**

**Shell**

**0.5%**

**ConocoPhillips**

**0.6%**

**Investor owned oil **

**reserves: ~ 4% of total**

- National Commission on Energy Policy

## National Oil Companies, Mostly in the Middle East,  Control 75 Percent of World Oil Reserves

**Asia**

**Africa**

**Asia**

**Eurasia**

**Africa**

**Middle East**

** **

**W. Hemisphere**

**Eurasia**

**Middle East**

**W.**** **

**Hemisphere**

**Privately**
**Owned (327 billion barrels)**

**National**
**Oil**
**Companies**
**(966 billion barrels)**

- Oil and Gas Journal; Reuters

## Almost All of the World’s Excess Production Capacity is in the Middle East(million barrels per day)

**0**

**2**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**10**

**12**

**1970**

**1972**

**1974**

**1976**

**1978**

**1980**

**1982**

**1984**

**1986**

**1988**

**1990**

**1992**

**1994**

**1996**

**1998**

**2000**

**2002**

**2004**

**2006**

**Middle East**

**Rest of World**

## Most Major Oil Market Disruptions Have Occurred in the Middle East

- In Terms of Peak Oil Disruption Size, Million Barrels per Day

- IEA

## More than One-Third of the World’s Seaborne Oil Shipments Flow Through the Persian Gulf

**The Strait of Hormuz is the World’s Most Strategic Oil Chokepoint with flows in 2005 of more than 17 million barrels per day**

## Projected SPR Import Protection(days of net imports)

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2006*****, February 2006**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2006*****, June 2006**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**