# Presentation: 573365

## S & T Committee

- Digital Forecast Era Challenges
- March, 2003

## Purpose

- Invite S&T Committee participation and leadership in defining the future (post-IOC) scientific and technological direction of IFPS and NDFD.

## Desired Outcomes

- Agreement on Scope and Content of technical issues to be addressed
- Seminal Science Issues
- Technology Issues
- Formation of an IFP Science Steering Team
- To guide scientific inquiry
- Recommend solutions
- Work with External Science Review Group
- Formation of a Technology Steering Team

## Some Science Issues

- NDFD does not currently support probabilistic forecasts
- Numerical guidance to forecasters needs to be improved
- Geophysically consistent grid modification of NDFD elements needs to be ensured
- Accuracy and skill of gridded forecasts not being adequately assessed
- NDFD does not contain a vertical coordinate
- Can forecasters add value to model output at meso- and finer scales?

## Some Technology Issues

- Provide Strategic direction (~5 years) to future technology
- How to integrate other information (radar, satellite, etc) into the IFP process for short range forecasting
- How to best access information  in the full resolution model suite
- How to make sure solutions are scalable and extensible considering current and future IT architecture

- What are the Strategic Alternatives we need to address?

- Are these the issues to be addressed?

## Now What Do We Do?

- Develop technological and scientific roadmap for IFPS
- Establish prioritized objectives
- Establish structure for leading resolution of scientific and technological issues
- Science Steering team
- Technology Steering Team
- Integrate into top level IFPS Program Plan

## Program ManagementConcept 

**Corporate Board**

**AA**

**OST – Program Mgmt**

**S&T Committee**

**Science Steering Team (SST)**

**Technology Steering Team (TST)**

**PPD**

**SEC**

**MDL**

**External Science Review Group (ESRG)**

## Science Steering TeamProposed Charter

- Vision
- To define and refine the science issues that are raised* *by IFP operations and to propose solutions.
- Structure
- A team that reports to the S&T committee
- Science oriented, with direct knowledge of IFP* *impacts to operations and services
- Membership
- 1-2 people from each Region, NCEP
- 1 representative from each development lab
- Representative from NWSHQ

## Science Steering Team Proposed Charter

- Roles and responsibilities
- Take ownership of science issues
- Define/Refine issues addressed
- Explore alternatives to solving
- Recommend solutions
- Identify technical/operational limitations
- Produce IFPS “next steps” white paper
- Reporting
- Monthly status reports to the S&T committee
- Outcomes
- Solutions get integrated into STIP
- Solutions get integrated into NOAA Weather and Water PPBS Plan

## Technology Steering TeamProposed Charter

- Vision
- To define and refine the technological issues that are raised and to propose solutions.
- Structure
- A team that reports to the S&T committee
- Technology oriented, with direct knowledge of impacts to operations and services
- Membership
- 1-2 people from each Region and NCEP
- 1 representative from each development lab
- Representatives from NWSHQ

## Roles and responsibilities
Take ownership of technological issues
Define/Refine issues addressed
Explore alternatives to solving
Recommend solutions 
Identify technical/operational limitations
Reporting
Monthly status reports to the S&T committee

- Take ownership of technological issues
- Define/Refine issues addressed
- Explore alternatives to solving
- Recommend solutions
- Identify technical/operational limitations
- Reporting
- Monthly status reports to the S&T committee

- Technology Steering TeamProposed Charter

## Formation of IFPS External Science Review Group

- Structure
- Non-NOAA group that reviews IFPS plans and advises S&T committee
- Membership
- 3-5 nationally known science leaders
- Academic and research backgrounds
- Roles and responsibilities
- Review SST recommendations
- Provide input on possible alternative solutions
- Reporting
- Quarterly review of IFPS program plans
- Question – DOC rules for setting up such a group?
- Should it be formal or informal

## Backups

## Science Issues NDFD does not currently support probabilistic forecasts

- The best ways to portray forecast information to day 7
- Discussion points
- MOS
- Ensembles
- Communicating uncertainty

## Science Issues Numerical guidance to forecasters needs to be improved

- Bias correction of NWP
- Interpolation of coarse resolution guidance grids to higher resolution IFPS/NDFD grids

## Science Issues Geophysically consistent grid modification of NDFD elements needs to be ensured 

- Do we have tools to ensure consistent surface elements?
- Can forecasters consistently add value at meso- and finer scales?

## Science Issues Accuracy and skill of gridded forecasts not being adequately assessed

- Forecasters cannot assess their skill on daily basis
- Organizationally we cannot track our skill

## Science Issues NDFD does not contain a vertical coordinate

- Required for Aviation Services
- Preliminary attempts made
- None successful

## Technology IssuesHow to integrate other information (radar, satellite, etc) into the IFP process for short range forecasting

- Lack of tools for nowcasting and short term forecasting
- Lack of data needed for nowcasting and short term forecasting
- Radar
- Satellite
- Surface observations
- How will AWIPS evolve to meet these needs?

## Technology Issues How to best access information  in the full resolution model suite

- Lack of bandwidth to send full resolution NWP output to WFOs
- Lack of computer resources to handle larger volume of data at WFOs
- Are bandwidth and CPU resources the best solution to expanding _information _at WFOs

## Technology Issues

- Bigger than IFPS
- How do we move forward with technology in the digital forecast era?