# Presentation: 721770

## The next revolution in Energy Technology

- Energy Summit 2006Cisco Systems, San  Jose21 July, 2006

## “Transitions to Sustainable Energy”

- “Transitions to Sustainable Energy”

**The world has a clear and major problem, with no global consensus on the way to proceed: how to achieve transitions to an adequately affordable, sustainable clean energy supply”**

- Co-chairs: Jose Goldemberg, Brazil, Secretary of State for the Environment of the State of São Paolo.Steven Chu, USA

## Computer simulations by the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab for CO2 increases above pre-industrial revolution levels:

- 2x CO2 : 3 – 5° C
- 4x CO2 :  6 - 10° C

- Pre-industrial: 			~275 ppmToday: 				~380 ppm

## CO2 Concentration, Temperature, and Sea Level

**will rise even after Emissions are Reduced**

**100 years**

**1,000 years**

**Sea-level rise due to ice melting: **several millennia

**Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion: **
- centuries to millennia

**Temperature stabilization:**
- a few centuries

**CO****2 ****stabilization:**
- 100 to 300 years

**CO****2**** emissions**

**CO****2**** emissions peak**
- 0 to 100 years

**Today**

## Slide 5

## 1  = 68 % confidence level

**2 ******** = 95.4% confidence level**
**3 ******** = 99.7% confidence level**

**For a Gaussian distribution:**

## Unstable Glaciers

**Surface melt on Greenland ice sheet descending into ****moulin****, a vertical shaft carrying the water to base of ice sheet.  **
***Source: Roger Braithwaite***

## Temperature over the last 420,000 years

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

## Energy demand vs. GDP per capita

## CO2 emissions depends on the energy source

- CO2 emissions depends on the energy source

##  Conservation: maximize energy efficiency and minimize energy use, while insuring economic prosperity 

-  Develop new sources of clean energy

- A dual strategy is needed to solve the energy problem:

## The Demand side of theEnergy Solution

## The Rosenfeld Effect

**Notes:**
Compares kWh/capita for California, constant for 27 years, with the US, which during the same time grew 50%, i.e. 2%/year.    

## Regulation stimulates technology: Refrigerator efficiency standards and performance. The expectation of efficiency standards also stimulated industry innovation

- Regulation stimulates technology: Refrigerator efficiency standards and performance. The *expectation* of efficiency standards also stimulated industry innovation

## “Vampire” drains on energy 

- “Vampire” drains on energy** **

**Notes:**
Shows the estimated growth of “standby” power, compared to refrigerators.  Standby power is still unregulated, and is already 5-10% of world residential kWh use.

This shows the need for vigilance and an aggressive standards program

## US Electricity Use of Refrigerators and Freezers compared to sources of electricity

**0**

**100**

**200**

**300**

**400**

**500**

**600**

**700**

**800**

**Billion kWh per year**

**150 M Refrig/Freezers**

**at 1974 eff**

**at 2001 eff**

**Nuclear**

**Conventional **

**Hydro**

**3 Gorges**
**Dam**

**Existing**
** ****Renewables**

**50 Million 2 kW **

**PV Systems**

**Saved**

**Used**

**Used**

**Notes:**
The same gain, expressed in TWh/year, compared with all US hydro, the Three Gorges dam, United State’s existing renewables, and United State’s nuclear power.

## The Value of Energy Saved and Produced.  (assuming cost of generation = $.03/kWh and cost of use = $.085/kWh)

**The Value of Energy Saved and Produced.  (assuming cost of generation = $.03/kWh**** and cost of use = $.085/kWh)**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**Billion $ per year**

**Dollars Saved from**

**150 M Refrig/Freezers**

**at 2001 efficiency**

**Nuclear**

**Conventional **

**Hydro**

**Existing **

**Renewables**

**50 Million 2 kW**

**PV Systems**

**3 Gorges**
**Dam**

**ANWR**

**Notes:**
Re-expressed in dollars, noting that refrigerators save retail electric cost, whereas a kWh of supply is worth only its wholesale price, and in the United States the retail/wholesale ratio is nearly three to one.  So, expressed in dollars, refrigerator bill savings, at the meter, will soon surpass the value of nuclear power, at the bus bar.  We have added (in green) Alaska National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) assuming a 30 year average production of 600,000 barrel per day valued at $30 per barrel.

## Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem

-  Coal, tar sands, shale oil, ...
-  Fusion
-  Fission
-  Wind
-  Solar photocells
-  Bio-mass

## Slide 19

## Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem

-  Coal, tar sands, shale oil, ...
-  Fusion
-  Fission
-  Wind
-  Solar photocells
-  Bio-mass

## Modest carbon tax and other incentives were essential to stimulate long term development of power generation from wind

**3 MW capacity deployed and 5 MW generators in design****(126 m diameter rotors).****  **

## The Betts Limit: 

**Assuming:**
** ****Conservation of mass for incompressible flow**
** ****Conservation of momentum, **
**Maximum kinetic energy delivered to a wind ****	****turbine  = ****16/27 (1⁄2)mv****2****	****	****     ~ 0.59 of kinetic energy  **

**v****a**

**v****b**

**v****b**

**v****c**

**A****a****, P****a**** **

**A****b****, P****bD**

**A****c****, P****c**

**A****b****, P****bU**

## Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem

-  Coal, tar sands, shale oil, ...
-  Fusion
-  Fission
-  Wind
-  Solar photocells
-  Bio-mass

## UC BerkeleyCampus

- UC BerkeleyCampus

- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory3,800 employees, ~$520 M / year budget

- 10 Nobel Prize winners were/are employees of LBNL, and at least one more “in the pipeline”
- Today:
- 59 employees in the National Academy of Sciences,18 in the National Academy of Engineering,2 in the Institute of Medicine

## Helios: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory’s attack on the energy problem 

## Bell Laboratories

- 15 scientists who worked at AT&T Bell laboratories received Nobel Prizes.

## Slide 27

## Shockley

- Bardeen

- Brittain

- Materials Science
- Theoretical and experimental physics	- Electronic structure of 	 			semiconductors	- Electronic surface states	- p-n junctions

## Helios metrics for success

**Helios metrics for success**

- Address showstoppers as quickly as possible.
- Move on as soon as the potential solution will not scale properly.
- Constantly re-access milestones and goals: Failure ***is*** an option.

**Fuels**

## Is it possible to develop a new class of durable solar cells with high efficiency at 1/5 to 1/10th the cost of existing technology?

**Notes:**
Nature has been converting sunlight, CO2 water and nutrients into chemical energy for billions of years. 

## Distributed Junction Solar Cells

-  Creation of electron-hole charges
-  Conduction of charge carriers to electrodes

**Tetrapod nanoparticle**

##  Distributed Junction Solar Cells

- Introduced by Heeger and coworkers in 1994. Two nano-scale components used to generate exciton creation, charge separation and conduction to electrodes. Many losses when charges are trapped at dead ends within the random network.  Problems of charge collection are exacerbated due to the fact the mobilities in the organic media are low, and the holes move much faster than the electrons.

##  Organized Channel Junction Solar Cells

- Spatially organize the electron-hole transport pathways into an array of vertical columns. Solution phase growth of vertically aligned nanowire arrays as electron transport media
- Formation of a liquid crystal phase consisting of colloidal nanorods or nanotubes.
- Alignment of block copolymers
- Hierarchical Junction Solar Cells using organic dendrimers

## Slide 34

## ~13 B ha of land in the Earth

-   1.5 B ha for crops
-   3.5 B ha for pastureland
-   0.5 B ha are “built up”
-   7.5 B ha are forest land or “other”

## Temp/water limitation

**Temp/water limitation**

**Rad/water limitation**

**temp/water limitation**

## Slide 37

## Source: US Dept of Agriculture

**Source: US Dept of Agriculture**

## Petroleum Use

**Courtesy Dan Kammen analysis**

## Greenhouse Gases

**Courtesy Dan Kammen analysis**

## Sunlight

- CO2, H20,
- Nutrients

- Biomass

- Chemical energy

- The majority of a plant is structural material

## Advantages of perennial species:

-  higher annualized photosynthesis
-  nutrient conservation

## Advantages of perennial plants:

-  No tilliage after first planting
-  Long-lived roots establish beneficial interactions  with root symbionts that facilitate acquisition of  mineral nutrients.
-  Some perennials withdraw a substantial fraction  of mineral nutrients from above-ground portions of the  plant at the end of the season but before harvest.
-  Perennials have lower fertilizer runoff than annuals.  (Switchgrass has ~ 1/8 nitrogen runoff and 1/100 the  soil erosion of corn.)
-  Diversity by growing several intermixed species of  perennials is more feasible.

## > 1% conversion efficiency may be feasible. 

- > 1% conversion efficiency may be feasible.** **

-  Miscanthus yields**:  30 **dry tons/acre
-  100 gallons of ethanol / dry ton possible ****** **3,000 gal/acre.
-  100 M out of 450 M acres   ~300 B gal / year of ethanol
-  US consumption (2004)  = 141 B gal of gasoline			          		          ~ 200 B gal of ethanol / year
-  US also consumes 63 B gal diesel

## Cellulose (40 – 60% of dry mass)

-  Linear polymer of the glucose-glucose dimer
-  Hydrolysis  glucose (6C sugar)  ethanol
- Hemicellulose (20 -40%)
- Highly branched, short chain, 5C and 6C sugars  such as xylose arabinose, galactose  Fermentation of hemicellulose in infancy(Ethanol substituted for other hydrocarbon  e.g. butanol, octanes, etc. ?)
- Lignin (10 – 25%)
-  Does not lead to simple sugar molecules

## Slide 46

## “The large coal deposits of the Carboniferous primarily owe their existence to two factors... the appearance of bark-bearing trees (and in particular the evolution of the bark fiber lignin) [and] the development of extensive lowland swamps and forests in North America and Europe. It has been hypothesized that large quantities of wood were buried during this period because animals and decomposing bacteria had not yet evolved that could effectively digest the new lignin.” 

- “The large coal deposits of the Carboniferous primarily owe their existence to two factors... the appearance of bark-bearing trees (and in particular the evolution of the bark fiber lignin) [and] the development of extensive lowland swamps and forests in North America and Europe. It has been hypothesized that large quantities of wood were buried during this period because animals and decomposing bacteria had not yet evolved that could effectively digest the new lignin.”

## From Christopher Somerville, IAC workshop, 2006

## Commercial ethanol production from cellulose

- The biggest energy gains will come from improved fuel production from cellulose/lignin

## Microbial Production of Bio-fuels and Synthetic Biology 

- Jay Keasling
- Director, Physical Biosciences Division
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
- &
- Depts. of Chemical Engineering & Bioengineering
- University of California, Berkeley

## Malaria

- Caused by *Plasmodium*, a single-cell protozoan
- Transmitted by Anopheles mosquito
- Destroys red blood cells
*Plasmodium* in South America and Southeast Asia is largely resistant to chloroquine – based drugs

## Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling

- Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling

## Research, Development & Delivery

**Keasling **
**Laboratory**

**Amyris **
**Biotechnologies**

**Institute for**
**OneWorld **
**Health**

## Artemisinin costs

|  | Artesunate
combination treatment |
| --- | --- |
| 
Current cost of drug | 
$2.25-2.50 |
| 
Cost with new process | 
$.21/.12 ? |

## Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling

- Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling

- Can synthetic organisms be engineered to produce ethanol, butanol or more suitable hydrocarbon fuel?

## Matrix Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR)

- Solving the Macro-Micro Interface Problem
- Steve Quake

- Red: Primer Input (Multiplexed by N)
- Blue: Template Input (Multiplexed by N)
- Yellow: Taq Input (Multiplexed by N2)

- N2 independent PCR reactions performed with 2N+1 inputs!

## Sunlight

- CO2 H20
- Nutrients

- Biomass

- Chemical energy

- Can we modify existing organisms (algae) or design new ones to directly produce energy?

## Carbon capture and storage costs 

-  Most of the anticipated cost of carbon capture and storage is in the capture of CO2