# Presentation: 756538

## Notice: The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).  Scientists in EPA have prepared the EPA sections, and those sections have been reviewed in accordance with EPA’s peer and administrative review policies and approved for presentation and publication.  The EPA contributed funding to the construction of this website but is not responsible for it's contents. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

**Notice: The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and may not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).  Scientists in EPA have prepared the EPA sections, and those sections have been reviewed in accordance with EPA’s peer and administrative review policies and approved for presentation and publication.  The EPA contributed funding to the construction of this website but is not responsible for it's contents. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.**

## Life-History Traits and Landscape Patterns: Predicting Population Persistence in the Middle-Atlantic Region 

- Joshua J. Lawler
- National Research Council, US EPA, Corvallis, OR

- Denis White
- US EPA, WED NHEERL, Corvallis, OR

- Nathan Schumaker
- US EPA, WED NHEERL, Corvallis, OR

- © Tom & Pat  Leeson, Photo Researchers Inc.

## Overview

- Reserve selection
- Addressing population persistence
- Modeling population dynamics

## Mohican S.A. Copyright (c) 2002 Gotolatin.com 

- Mohican S.A. Copyright (c) 2002 Gotolatin.com

## Reserve-Selection

- Persistence

## Reserve-Selection for Representation

- Species richness
- Rare species
- Complementarity

## Reserve-Selection for Representation

*Priority areas for 769 species*

## Reserve-Selection for Population Persistence

***accuracy***

***feasibility***

## Simple Habitat Relationships

## Slide 10

## Slide 11

## Slide 12

## Habitat pattern generates regional population trends

- Local population dynamics evolve within groups linked by movement

- The site scale is characterized by habitat quality

- S = survival rates
- R = reproductive rates
- M = movement events

## Surrogate Species

- Northern Goshawk
- Red-shouldered Hawk
- Cooper’s Hawk

- Photo by Denis Oehmke

- © Tom & Pat  Leeson, Photo Researchers Inc.

## Model Inputs

-   land-cover
-   fecundity
-   survival
-   dispersal
-   habitat relationships
-   area requirements

## Model Results

- Year

- Population size

## Model Results

*Predicted (static)*

*Observed (dynamic)*

## Model Results

*Predicted (static)*

*Observed (dynamic)*

## Model Results

*Predicted (static)*

*Observed (dynamic)*

## Mapping Source Habitat

*Observed (dynamic)*

*Observed (dynamic)*

## Simple Habitat vs. Source Habitat

- Simple Habitat

- Best Source Habitat

## Addressing Persistence in Reserve-Selection

*Priority areas for 769 species*

*Priority Sites Goshawks*

## Addressing Persistence in Reserve-Selection

*Red-shouldered Hawk*

*Cooper’s Hawk*

*Priority areas for 769 species*

*Priority Sites for Three Hawk Species*

## Slide 24

## Conclusions

- Simple habitat relationships will not always be adequate
- Spatially explicit models can help to inform reserve selection
- A combination of strategies will likely work best
- Additional applications
- Linking life history traits and landscape
- 	   patterns
- Future scenarios

## Acknowledgements

- Betsy Smith and EPA’s Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program (ReVA), The National Research Council (NRC), EPA WED Corvallis, and Pilar Hernandez of NatureServe

## Slide 27

## Model Sensitivity

## Representing Vulnerability

- _Basic General Threats_:
*What areas are heavily impacted by factors likely to threaten the persistence of multiple species?*

## Three Measures of Vulnerability

- Open Mines

- Agriculture

- Development

**42% 10% 5% 1% 0%**

**9% 2% 1% 0.5% 0%**

**44% 10% 5% 2% 0%**

## Irreplaceability

- All Species

## Representation and Vulnerability

- Open Mines

- Agriculture

- Development

## Measuring Vulnerability

-  % urban/suburban
-  % agriculture
-  % open mines

## Two Methods for Integrating Vulnerability

*Complete Coverage with Vulnerability Constraint*

*Irreplaceability and Vulnerability*

- Vulnerability

- Irreplaceability

## Expected 

- Expected 

- Modeled population change

## Simple Habitat Relationships

## Slide 37