# Presentation: 701312

## NASA PRA Database

- Presented at NASA HQ PRA Workshop
- Rockville, MD
- October 26, 2000

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Team Members

- Roger Boyer (SAIC-JSC)
- Joe Fragola (SAIC)
- Ed Zampino (GRC)
- Paul Bowerman (JPL)

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Introduction

- Problem Statement
- NASA has no centralized PRA data set.
- Objective
- To create a data set to support the quantification of PRAs for NASA

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Definitions

- Data Set
- Actual input used to quantify the basic and initiating events.
- Data Source
- Existing databases that potentially may be used to generate data sets.
- Database
- The combination of data and software to allow the collection, reduction, and management of data sets.

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Issues

- Resources (Time/People/$)
- Central Point (Website)
- Standard Failure Rates
- Schedule/Timeliness
- Standardize Nomenclature
- Data Set Definition

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Data Set Definition

- Component/Device Type
- System/ORU/LRU/SRU/etc.
- Failure Mode
- Time/Demand/Degree of Failure
- Application/Environment
- Launch Vehicle
- Low Earth Orbit, Geosync Earth Orbit, Interplanetary

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Similar Databases

- Nuclear Power Industry
- USA (IEEE 500, NPRDS, NUCLAAR)
- Spain (DACNE)
- Sweden (SKI)
- France (SRDF)
- Europe (EuReDa)
- Offshore Oil Industry
- OREDA

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Relational Database

- Failure Modes

- Device
- Types

- Applications/
- Environment

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Relational Example

- Failure
- Modes

- Device Types

- Applications/
- Environment

-   Solenoid Valve
-   Fails to Close on Demand
-   Shuttle

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Step 1

- Obtain Funding to perform Phase 1
- Organize Working Group
- From various NASA Centers with Shuttle, Station, LEO, areo, and interplanetary projects
- From consultants w/ PRA database experience
- Select Group Lead

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Step 2

- Develop Project Plan (within 3 months)
- Phase 1:  Develop IEEE 500 Equivalent for NASA
- Phase 2:  Establish Website
- Phase 3:  Initiate NASA specific data updating
- Note:  We must use the heritage of the past, but always remember that we are forecasting *future* performance.

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Step 3

- Perform Phase 1 (within 9 months)
- Identify list of component types and failure modes for each application
- Determine what additional information is needed
- Identify experts to be used in failure rate estimating

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Database Evolution

**Applications/**
**Environment**

**Device Type**

**Data Set must allow for Reliability Growth in Development Systems**

- Heritage

-  Current

- Future

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Near Term Data System

_**Elements**_**:**
**Taximetrics structure covering *****all***** NASA program types**
**Standard (prior consensus) data set for all failure modes for component types and applications in taxonomy showing range of credibility of failure rates and failure probabilities with “best estimate” point value**
_**Features**_
**Industry/NASA working group to generate Near Term System**
**Use *****all***** existing data sources**

**Visionary Data System**
_**Elements**_**:**
**Data source library**
**Standard data set**
**Updating software**
**Network interface to programmatic data sources (e.g., ISS, STS) HST**
**Data source search and selection software (data mining software)**
_**Features**_
**Current data set (standard)**
**Continual, periodic updating**
**Program specific data set construction on-line**

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00

## Recommendations

- Obtain Funding ASAP to perform Phase 1 (IEEE 500 equivalent)
- Organize Working Group & Select Group Lead
- From various NASA Centers with Shuttle, Station, LEO, areo, and interplanetary projects
- From consultants w/ PRA database experience
- Develop Plan and perform Phase 1 by December 2001

- Roger Boyer (281-483-6070)

- 10/26/00