# Presentation: 028998

## IFPS Strategy

- MIC White Paper

## Introduction

- Prior to IFPS IOC (10/1/03) a group of Western Region MICs formed a team to explore what steps should be taken by the NWS following IOC, i.e. how do we get to “end state” ?
- A WR SOO was included on the team as a bridge to the SOO White paper.

- MIC White Paper

## Team Members

- Kevin Baker, MIC WFO Elko, NV
- Dean Hazen, SOO WFO Pocatello, ID
- Chris Hill, MIC WFO Seattle, WA
- James Meyer, MIC WFO Pocatello, ID
- Dave Reynolds, MIC WFO Monterey, CA
- Associates:
- Carl Gorski, WR MSD
- Andy Edman, WR SSD
- Kirby Cook, WR SSD
- Rich Douglas, WR MSD

- MIC White Paper

## Vision

- NWS forecasters will effectively maintain situational awareness and fully manage the forecast process during the transition period from IOC to an end state digital forecast era.
- Further, the NWS will effectively develop and market the digital forecast database and derived products to our customers and partners so that these become the NWS’s primary products.

- MIC White Paper

## Focus on internal and external issues

**Desired forecast process (internal focus)**
- Freeze number and resolution of “official” grids
- NCEP can help WFOs maintain situational awareness
- Improve grid quality and coherency
- Reduce forecaster post-editing workload
**Desired forecast process outcome (external focus)**
- Define a customer base and service needs
- Establish a product development program
- Establish a product marketing program

- MIC White Paper

## Desired Forecast Process

**Freeze number/resolution of official grids at IOC level**
- Grids necessary to create 10 legacy text products
- Lack of high resolution model guidance/climate data
- Grid editing tools
- Collaboration tools
-  Formatters
- To permit national verification program to proceed
**NCEP support – Situational Awareness improved via:**
- Service Center products
- Does not necessarily require grids from the Center
- Service Center facilitation of collaboration
- Down scale and bias corrected consensus solution

- MIC White Paper

## Desired Forecast Process (cont’d)

**Improve grid quality and coherency via:**
- Verification via an “analysis of record”
- Improved grid initialization options, including the use of model native grids, mesonet, satellite, and radar data
- Improved smart tools
- Improved collaboration methods
- Implementation of best practices
- Utilization of Regional Teams

- MIC White Paper

## Desired Forecast Process (cont’d)

**Reduce forecaster post-editing workload**
- Modify NWS Directive 10-503 to:
- Simplify text product requirements
- Reduce emphasis on traditional routine text products
- Ensure Directives emphasize digital database
**Temporarily reset NDFD currency standards from hourly to six-hourly **
- Rapidly changing conditions make it impossible to collaborate, update grids, and coordinate boundaries in one hour.

- MIC White Paper

## Desired Forecast Process Outcome

**Maximize use of the digital database**
- Define customer base and service needs
- Efforts conducted at all levels of the NWS
- Primary focus of WCMs during the transition
- Forecaster workload should be driven by customer demand!

- MIC White Paper

## Desired Forecast Process Outcome(cont’d)

**Establish a product development program**
- Continuously evolving product suite
- NWS collaborate (at all organization levels) with customers to obtain critical feedback
- Address science, technology, utility, quality, consistency aspects of the digital database
- Incorporate feedback into product development and technology transfer programs

- MIC White Paper

## Desired Forecast Process Outcome(cont’d)

**Establish a product marketing program to emphasize the digital forecast database**
- Digital database currently underutilized
- Customers may not:
- Be aware this database exists
- Have applications to leverage its utility
- Realize its potential benefits
- A vigorous outreach effort is needed
- Provide current applications to our customers
- Provide critical consultation services to our customers
- Direct forecaster interaction with customers is important

- MIC White Paper

## Summary

- Great strides have been made in making a national digital forecast database a reality
- ORD demonstrated that the system is far from mature
- We need a focused plan to ensure we succeed in our mission of the protection of life and property during this transition period

- MIC White Paper

## Summary

- Temporarily freeze official grids at IOC level
- Make updates to NDFD at 6-hr intervals
- Implement NCEP products that enhance WFO forecaster situational awareness
- Deploy regional teams to improve IFPS at WFOs
- Reduce text formatter post-editing workload
- Develop a focused outreach program
- Develop a product development program
- Develop a product marketing program

- MIC White Paper