# Presentation: 937746

## From DEMETER to EURO-SIP: The European Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction project

- Richard Graham
- acknowledgements to DEMETER and EURO-SIP partners
- (Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Laura Ferranti (ECMWF))

- NOAA 30th Climate Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 24-28th, State College, Pennsylvania

- DEMETER project (EU FP5) – completed September 2003
- European seasonal multi-model system (hindcasts)
- Application/impact models (crops, health)
- forecast system sensitivity studies

- EURO-SIP
- operational real-time implementation of DEMETER

- ENSEMBLES (EU FP6)
- prediction/impacts seasonal to decadal (and longer) timescales
- new representations of model and initial condition uncertainty
- 5 year project, now one year in

- Met Office European winter forecast 2005/06

## The DEMETER multi-model ensemble system

- DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models
- 6 installed at ECMWF

- Hindcast periods:
- 1980-2001 (22yrs) – all models
- 1959-2001 (43yrs) – 3 models

-  9 member ensembles
-  ERA-40 initial conditions
-  SST and wind perturbations
-  4 start dates per year
-  6 months hindcasts

- (GloSea)

**Notes:**
DEMETER global coupled model experimental setup. Seven models took part in the exercise, producing 4 9-member ensemble hindcasts per year for a common period ranging from 1980 to 2001. Some models produced hindcasts for a longer period (1958-2001).

## Multi-model ensemble system: hindcasts

- Feb 87          May 87          Aug 87           Nov 87           Feb 88 ...

- 7 models x 9 ensemble members
- 63 member multi-model ensemble

- DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models

- CNRM (FR) ECMWF (INT) INGV (IT) LODYC (FR) MPI (DE) UKMO (UK) CERFACS (FR)

**Notes:**
Simple diagram illustrating the initialization and production of the multi-model hindcasts.

## Multi-model ensemble system: hindcasts

- Feb 87          May 87          Aug 87           Nov 87           Feb 88 ...

- DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models

- CNRM (FR) ECMWF (INT) INGV (IT) LODYC (FR) MPI (DE) UKMO (UK) CERFACS (FR)

## Multi-model ensemble system: hindcasts

- Feb 87          May 87          Aug 87           Nov 87           Feb 88 ...

- DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models

- CNRM (FR) ECMWF (INT) INGV (IT) LODYC (FR) MPI (DE) UKMO (UK) CERFACS (FR)

## Multi-model ensemble system: hindcasts

- Feb 87          May 87          Aug 87           Nov 87           Feb 88 ...

- 63 member multi-model ensemble
- = 1 hindcast

- DEMETER system: 7 coupled global circulation models

- CNRM (FR) ECMWF (INT) INGV (IT) LODYC (FR) MPI (DE) UKMO (UK) CERFACS (FR)

## Results

- Applications/impact models
- Crop yield
- malaria
- Downscaling studies
- Statistical & dynamical
- Sensitivity studies
- e.g. CGCM Vs AGCM

**DEMETER ****Special Issue 2005**

**Tellus 57A, No. 3, 21 contributions**

## Single vs. multi-model: Brier skill score‘basket’ of regions, start dates and leadtimes

- Single vs. multi-model: Brier skill score‘basket’ of regions, start dates and leadtimes

## Impact of number of models on multi-model skill:Tropics, JJA precip, 1m lead: RPSS

- Impact of number of models on multi-model skill:Tropics, JJA precip, 1m lead: RPSS

- Multi-model realizations
- Single-model realizations

## Application models: wheat yield predictions for Europe

- France

- Germany

- Denmark

- Greece

- From P. Cantelaube and J.-M. Terres, JRC

| SIMULATION | WEIGHTED YIELD ERROR (%)
± STANDARD ERROR |
| --- | --- |
| JRC February | 7.1 ± 0.9 |
| JRC April | 7.7 ± 0.5 |
| JRC June | 7.0 ± 0.6 |
| JRC August | 5.4 ± 0.5 |
| DEMETER (Feb. start) | 6.0 ± 0.4 |

- DEMETER multi-model predictions (7 models, 63 members, Feb starts) of average wheat yield for four European countries (box-and-whiskers) compared to Eurostat official yields (black horizontal lines) and crop results from a simulation forced with downscaled ERA40 data (red dots).

## Summary

- DEMETER: proof of multi-model benefit using 7 coupled ocean-atmosphere models
- More than a multi-model exercise...encouraging results for integration with application models
- Mutual understanding between prediction and application communities – ‘end-to-end’ approach
- Infrastructure and standardisation developed
- coordination of model output content (with application partners)
- model output formats and units (archiving at ECMWF).
- downscaling techniques/experience
- centralised model diagnosis/verification system at ECMWF
- data download and plotting facility **http://data.ecmwf.int/data/**

## EURO-SIP real-time multi-model ensemble

**Three models running at ECMWF:**
- Met Office: GloSea (version of HadCM3) (41-ensemble)
- ECMWF: system2 (40-ensemble)
- Météo-France – Arpège (41-ensemble)
**Unified system with common development strategy **
**Products in development:**
- 2-model products available on Met Office website
- ECMWF release of web products is expected soon

## Probability of precipitation – outer-quintile categories, GHACOF region, SON 2005

**P(well-above)**

**P(well-below)**

**Yellow/****red****:** enhanced chance of category (relative to climatology)
**Blue:** diminished chance
- White:near climatological probabilities

**GloSea**

- based on 1987-2001 climatology

**EURO-SIP (80 ensemble)**

## Probability of lower temperature tercile category: NDJ 2005 (from September)

*Forecast is made available on the 15th of each month.*

**Notes:**
Example of large differences between the models predictions.
Europe Eastern  Atlantic and Canada

## Tropical Storms

- Forecasts starting on 1st June 2005: JASON

**ECMWF**

**Met Office**

**M****é****t****é****o-France**

**Obs 1****st**** May- mid-Sep**

**Atl**

**W-Pac**

**E-Pac**

**Multimodel**

- Forecast No. = 18
- Climatology = 11.6

## After DEMETER...ENACT: enhanced ocean assimilation

- EN2 QC’d dataset and objective analysis, 1956-2004
- http://www.hadobs.org

## ENSEMBLES: seasonal to decadal &

- improved representing model uncertainties

- 7 model multi-model installed at ECMWF
- 	   - includes Met Office decadal forecast system (anomaly assimilation)
- 	   - realistic GHGs, aerosols

- Met Office decadal forecast (DePreSys)

## ENSEMBLES: perturbed physics

- From Murphy *et al*, Nature 2004

- 2. Many models from perturbing physics parameters, eg. RHcrit for cloud formation
- (ref Murphy et al, 2004; and climateprediction.net)

## ENSEMBLES: stochastic physics

- E(n)

- n = spherical harmonic order

- missing energy

- Stochastic physics experiment with ECMWF system:
- Cellular Automaton Stochastic Backscatter Scheme (CASBS)

- Without CASBS

- With CASBS

- From Tim Palmer, ECMWF

- 3. Stochastic ‘backscatter’ experiment (ECMWF)

**Notes:**
The DEMETER multi-model prediction system comprises seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) were started four times a year from 1st February, 1st May, 1st August and 1st November.  The forecasts were integrated for at least 180 days with ensembles of nine members each. The seven models and nine ensemble members per model gives a total of 63 hindcasts for each start date. Forecasts have been produced over the period 1958-2001, although the common period to the seven models is 1980-2001. 

## Summary and plans

- EURO-SIP: Real-time follow up to DEMETER
- products becoming available
- Meteo-France model fully implemented early 2006
- plans for model upgrades, convergence on the periods and ensemble size of hindcasts
- ENACT:
- enhanced ocean data assimilation – ocean ‘reanalyses’
- QC’d ocean data and objective analyses
- ENSEMBLES:
- builds on DEMETER and ENACT
- seasonal to decadal timescales (and longer)
- further investigations of model uncertainties
- calibrating and combining model ensembles

## Met Office forecast: European winter 2005/06

- NAO index: difference between normalised pressure anomaly Azores - Iceland

- N. Atlantic May SST anomaly associated with +ve NAO

- N. Atlantic May SST anomaly 2005

- Predicts correct sign in 2 out of 3 winters

**Empirical NAO prediction**
**Rodwell & Folland, 2002**

## September surface and sub-surface anomalies and GloSea prediction

- GloSea  prediction from September

- 60-90m anomalies

- SST anomalies

- normalised

- actual

## Thank you!

- additional slides follow

## EURO-SIP real-time multi-model ensemble

- Met Office (GloSea2)
- Modified HadCM3
- Atmos. 2.5° x 3.75° x 19L
- Ocean (1.25° to 0.3°) x 1.25° x 40L
- 41 ensemble members (from mix of windstress and SST perturbations)
- Hindcast: 1987-2001, 15 members
- ECMWF (system2)
- Atmos. TL95L40
- Ocean (1.0° to 0.3°) x 1.0° x 29L
- 40 ensemble members
- Hindcast: 1987-2001, 5 members
- Meteo-France
- Atmos. Arpège TL63L31
- Ocean: ORCA (2.0° to 0.5°) 31L
- 41 ensemble members (mix of 5 ocean analyses and 8 lagged atmos)
- Hindcast: 1993-2003, 5 members

## Parameter Perturbations

**Convection**
-  Entrainment rate
-  Intensity of mass flux
-  Shape of cloud (anvils)
-  Cloud water seen by radiation

**Radiation**
-  Ice particle size/shape
-   Sulphur cycle
-  Water vapour continuum absorption

**Boundary layer**
-  Turbulent mixing coefficients: stability-dependence, neutral mixing length
-  Roughness length over sea: Charnock constant, free convective value

**Dynamics**
-  Diffusion: order and e-folding time
-  Gravity wave drag: surface and trapped lee wave constants
-  Gravity wave drag start level

**Land surface processes**
-  Root depths
-  Forest roughness lengths
-  Surface-canopy coupling
-  CO2 dependence of stomatal conductance

**Sea ice**
-  Albedo dependence on temperature
-   Ocean-ice heat transfer

**Large Scale Cloud**
-  Ice fall speed
-  Critical relative humidity for formation
-  Cloud droplet to rain: conversion rate and threshold
-  Cloud fraction calculation

## Met Office seasonal/multi-annual/decadal runs

- Model

- DePreSys
- (HadCM3)

- Current
- oper. range

- decadal

- assimilation
- method

- GloSea
- (HadCM3*)

- Seasonal
- (6months)

- Conventional
-  (OI type)

- calibrated
- anomalies

- 9-ensemble
- experiments
- 1991-2001

- pert. ODA

- pert. phys.

- lagged avge

- pert. phys.

- lagged avge

- Hindcasts pre-production
- period: 1991 - 2001
- GloSea:
- ->7m:	1st/15th May/Nov
-  	1st June/Dec
-  ->14m:	1st  May/June/Nov/Dec
- -> 10y:	1st May 1964, 1994
- DePreSys:
- -> 10y:	1st May/Nov (all years)

- *Later
-  HadGEM

## Multi-model evaluation:Niño3.4 SST anomaly: ASO at 3m lead:

- Multi-model evaluation:Niño3.4 SST anomaly: ASO at 3m lead:

**http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/d/charts/verification/**

**Correlation:**
**Multi-model = 0.83**
**Best single model = 0.81**

## GloSea development and response to North Atlantic SST ‘tri-pole’ pattern: spring 1989

- Jan 89

- Feb 89

- May 89

**GloSea**

**HadISST**

- MAM 1989

- HadAM3 (+ pers Jan SSTA)

- GloSea

- ERA40

**Notes:**
4 EOFs
Pacific 
N At
S At
Indian Ocean

## ENSEMBLES: seasonal to interannual timescales (and longer);		      representing model uncertainties

- Hindcast pre-production period: 1991-2001; later 1960-2001

- 9-member ensembles
- ERA-40 atmosphere and soil initial conditions
- ENACT-based ocean initial conditions with SST and wind perturbations
- 2 seasonal (7 months),1 annual (12-14 months) runs per year
- Two multi-annual runs (1965, 1994) except 2 per year for DePreSys)
- Realistic boundary forcings: GHGs, aerosols, solar forcing, etc.

- ENSEMBLES system: 7 coupled GCMs running at ECMWF
- upgraded models from DEMETER (eg. using ENACT developments etc)

**Notes:**
The DEMETER multi-model prediction system comprises seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) were started four times a year from 1st February, 1st May, 1st August and 1st November.  The forecasts were integrated for at least 180 days with ensembles of nine members each. The seven models and nine ensemble members per model gives a total of 63 hindcasts for each start date. Forecasts have been produced over the period 1958-2001, although the common period to the seven models is 1980-2001. 

## Sensitivity studies: AGCM Vs CGCMNov. start for FMA (3-month lead) 

- HadAM3 (2-tier)

- GloSea (1-tier)

- Much improved GloSea skill in tropical (south) Atlantic and Indian ocean, from representation of lagged responses to ENSO.

- ROC Skill for 2m temperature, upper tercile

## Met Office decadal forecast system (DePreSys):Forecast of global annual mean Ts

- Predict 0.36+/-0.23o C (5-95%) warming for the coming decade
- Unless a major volcanic eruption occurs!
- Uses ‘anomaly assimilation’ (seasonal-range skill very competitive!)

**Notes:**
Policy makers, engineers, planners need to make decisions which have to take into account climate change – which is uncertain. Include uncertainty in cost benefit analysis of long-term plan e.g. new Thames barrier. 

Thames Barrier was designed to cope with tidal levels that were anticipated by 2030. A new Thames Barrier is being planned and this one will have to last into next century. They’ll need to know about uncertainty in predicted climate change to assess the risks and make a good decision.

What is the measure of uncertainty?