# Presentation: 171035

## Short Course on Air Quality Forecasting

- Introduction, p. 5
- Air Quality and Meteorology, p. 19
- Obtaining and Interpreting Forecast Information, p. 61
- Developing Forecasting Tools, p. 84
- Forecast Verification, p. 121
- Daily Forecast Operations, p. 131

## Course Objectives

- Understand the meteorological processes that affect pollution concentrations.
- Learn how to use and evaluate meteorological forecast data.
- Discuss how to develop tools to forecast air quality.
- Present procedures for verifying forecasts.

## Short Course: Design Goals

**Focus.** Forecasting air quality.  Primarily ozone, but approach also applies to other pollutants.
**Practical.**  Beyond theory, the course contains practical advice and reference to examples, tools, and methods.
**Gateway.**  The course workbook is a gateway to additional resources.
**Evolving.**  First time course, will improve in time through your feedback.

## Outline of Course (Morning)

- Introduction (9:00-9:15)
- Forecasting philosophy
- Background air quality
- Air Quality and Meteorology (9:15-10:45)
- Pollutant formation (ozone)
- Diurnal ozone profiles
- Air quality characterization
- Basic meteorology
- Surface
- Aloft
- Examples
- Break (10:45-11:00)
- Obtaining and Interpreting Forecast Information (11:00-12:00)
- Resources
- Examples of meteorological features

## Outline of Course (Afternoon)

- Developing Forecasting Methods (1:00-2:00)
- Evolution of forecasting programs
- Climatology
- Description of forecasting methods
- Verifying Forecasts (2:00-2:20)
- When to verify
- How to verify
- Daily Forecasting operations (2:20-2:45)
- Contest (2:45-3:00)
- Evaluation

## Why Forecast Air Quality?

- Protect public health
- Allows public to plan activities to avoid exposure
- Allows sensitive individuals to plan activities and healthcare
- Effectively run an emissions reduction program.
- Participation depends on forecast accuracy and timeliness
- Affects public’s activities
- Affects sponsor or donor agency support
- Conduct special sampling.
- Allow sufficient time to prepare monitoring
-      equipment and personnel.
- Sample pre-episode conditions

## Process of Developing a Forecasting Program

- Needs for an
- AQ Forecast

## Forecasting Philosophy

- More forecasting tools = better results
- “No silver bullet”
- Based on the National Weather Service’s method of weather forecasting
- Several tools provide a consensus forecast
- Understanding how the system works:
- Determine how meteorological processes influence air pollution in your area
- Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the air quality

## Predicting weather (and air quality) requires examining information for several different spatial and time scales.
Global
	Space: 4,000 km – 20,000 km
	Time : 1 - 2 weeks 

Synoptic
	Space: 400 km – 4,000 km
	Time: 1 day – 1 week

Mesoscale
	Space: 10 km – 400 km
	Time: 1 hr – 1 day

Urban
	Space: 5 km - 50 km
	Time: 1 hr  - 4 hr

Neighborhood
	Space: 500 m - 5 km
	Time: 1 min – 1 hr

**Global**
- 	Space: 4,000 km – 20,000 km
- 	Time : 1 - 2 weeks
**Synoptic**
- 	Space: 400 km – 4,000 km
- 	Time: 1 day – 1 week
**Mesoscale**
- 	Space: 10 km – 400 km
- 	Time: 1 hr – 1 day
**Urban**
- 	Space: 5 km - 50 km
- 	Time: 1 hr  - 4 hr
**Neighborhood**
- 	Space: 500 m - 5 km
- 	Time: 1 min – 1 hr

- Forecasting Philosophy

## Forecasting Philosophy

- Predict weather’s effect on
- Emissions
- Chemistry (ozone formation)
- Pollutant transport and dispersion

**Emissions**

**Chemistry**

**Meteorology**

- Example

## Forecasting Philosophy

- Forecasting Process

- Predict weather

- Predict weather’s effect on emissions and chemistry

- Estimate AQ concentration

- Convert to AQI

**Notes:**
Mention emission versus chemistry example.

Cold=wood burn=more emissions

## What to forecast?

- Focus on AQI
- AQI composed of
**Ozone **
***Particulate Matter (2.5)***
*Carbon Monoxide*
*Nitrogen Dioxide*
*Sulfur Dioxide*
- Forecast for
- Hourly site values?
- Maximum at each site?
- Regional maximum?
- Specific AQI value or AQI category?
*Additional resources, see EPA forecasting guidance document*

## Summary

- Forecasting air quality requires understanding the physical
- and chemical processes that influence pollutant concentrations.

- Next Steps
- Overview of Air Quality (Chemistry and Emissions)
- Meteorological Processes
- Questions

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