# Presentation: 305230

## Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions

- Prepared by
- Climate Prediction Center, NCEP
**February 8, 2008**

- _[http://](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/)__[www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/)__[/products/GODAS/](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/)_

## Outline

**Overview**
**Recent highlights**
**Pacific Ocean**
**Indian Ocean**
**Atlantic Ocean**
**GODAS and CFS SST Predictions**

## Overview

**Moderate-strength La Niña (ONI SST < -1C) persisted from SON to NDJ for three consecutive seasons**
**CPC’s prognostic assessment: La Niña will continue into the Spring of 2008**
**Easterly wind anomaly weakened in the western Pacific due to MJO activities**
**Strong anti-cyclone wind anomalies near the western coast of North America favored coastal upwelling and reduced SST**
**Coastal upwelling has been abnormally strong since September with large intraseasonal variability**
**Indian Ocean**
**Near normal SST presented in the tropical Indian Ocean**
**Below-normal convection related to MJO activities**
**Atlantic Ocean**
**Near normal SST presented in the tropical Atlantic Ocean**
**Negative SST anomalies in south-western Atlantic weakened – forced by La Nina?**
**Positive SST anomalies in the extra-tropical North Atlantic weakened**
**NAO index has been persistently positive since September**

_**Overview**_

## Global SST Anomaly (0C) and Anomaly Tendency

_**Global SST Anomaly (**__**0**__**C) and Anomaly Tendency**_

** ****Negative SSTA east of 160E-- a canonical horseshoe pattern in the Pacific**
** ****Near normal SST in Indian Ocean**
** ****Near Normal SST in tropical Atlantic**

** ****Negative SSTA in central Pacific strengthened, while those in far eastern Pacific weakened**
** ****SSTA in NH extra-tropics enhanced in Pacific and weakened in Atlantic**
** ****Positive SSTA north of Australia disappeared**

## Pacific Ocean

## Recent Evolution of Pacific NINO SST Indices

_**Recent Evolution of Pacific NINO SST Indices**_

** ****NINO 4 strengthened, NINO 3.4 and NINO 3 persisted, NINON 1+2 weakened substantially.**
** ****CPC’s ENSO Prognostic Statement: NDJ ONI -1.4C, a moderate-strength La Nina persisted. The La Nina will continue into the spring of 2008.**

**Nino 1+2**

**Nino 3**

**Nino 4**

**Nino 3.4**

## Depth-Longitude Section of Temperature Anomaly in 2oS-2oN

_**Depth-Longitude Section of Temperature Anomaly in 2**__**o**__**S-2**__**o**__**N**_

**x**

**TAO**

**GODAS**

**- East-west dipole pattern of temperature anomalies featuring La Nina conditions**
**- Temperature anomalies of GODAS are consistent with those of TAO when the same climatology (****TAO climatology) ****was used**
**- Negative subsurface temperature anomalies in western-central Pacific enhanced**

**x**

**December**

**January**

**x**

**x**

## Recent Evolution of Heat Budget in NINO3.4 SST Anomaly

_**Recent Evolution of Heat Budget in NINO3.4 SST Anomaly**_

- Courtesy of Dr. Dongxiao Zhang

** ****Advective cooling in Dec. 2006 (MJO) followed by entrainment cooling in Jan. 2007**
** ****Advective and entrainment warming in May-Jul 2007 (MJO) delayed La Nina development**
** ****Advective cooling in Jul 2007 (MJO) followed by entrainment cooling in Aug-Oct 2007 led to La Nina development**
** ****Entrainment cooling strengthened and became much stronger than advective cooling in January 2008**

## Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST (oC), 850-mb Zonal Wind (m/s), 0-300m Heat Content (oC) and MJO Activity

_**Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST (oC), 850-mb Zonal Wind (m/s), 0-300m Heat Content (oC) and MJO Activity**_

** ****CPC’s MJO prognostic statement: Moderate-to-strong MJO activity presented since mid-November**
** ****In January, convective active phase of MJO progressed to Maritime Continent and western Pacific**
** ****Associated with the progression of MJO, easterly wind anomalies weakened in the far western Pacific**

**TAO winds**

**Notes:**
Have a single plot?

## OLR Anomalies: Last 30 days

_**OLR Anomalies: Last 30 days**_

**Drier-than-normal conditions, positive OLR anomalies (/red shading) **
**Wetter-than-normal conditions, negative OLR anomalies (blue shading)**

**Wet conditions were observed across the Maritime continent and western Pacific during early to mid January. **

**Enhanced convection has redeveloped in the Indian Ocean during late January.**

**The suppressed phase of the MJO has resulted in dry  conditions shifting from the Indian Ocean to Indonesia and northern Australia by late January. **

## Tropical Pacific: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx

_**Tropical Pacific: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx**_

** ****Enhanced convection in far western Pacific and SPCZ, suppressed convection in central Pacific**
** ****Easterly wind anomalies weakened in the western Pacific, **
** ****Westerly wind anomalies east of 140W**

## North Pacific: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx

_**North Pacific: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx**_

** ****Cooling near western coast of North America and warming in central North Pacific stronger than those in December.**
** ****Ekman transport/pumping and surface heat fluxes were likely the main external forcing**

**Notes:**
Make one plot... zero lines... OLR is probably not needed... R2 sensible and latent heat flux

## North America Western Coastal Upwelling

_**North**__** **__**America Western Coastal Upwelling**_

**Climatologically upwelling season progresses from March to July along the west coast of North America from 36****o****N to 57****o****N.**

**CPC, NCEP**

** ****Downwelling prevails climatologically since October, but they are interrupted by frequent upwelling events **
** ****Upwelling is abnormally strong since September with large intraseasonal variability**
** ****Strong blocking in second half of Jan. 2008 lead to above-normal upwelling**

## Atlantic Ocean

## Tropical Atlantic: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx

_**Tropical Atlantic: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx**_

**- SST near normal in tropical Atlantic**
** ****Negative SSTA  between 10S and 20S weakened, La Nina forced?**

## North Atlantic: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx

_**North Atlantic: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx**_

** ****Large positive SST anomalies between 30N and 60N**
**- Negative surface heat flux anomalies contributed to SST cooling**

## Attribution of SST Anomaly in Northwest Atlantic

_**Attribution of SST Anomaly in Northwest Atlantic**_

** ****NAO index has been positive since September**
**  ****North Atlantic SST decreased**

## CFS SST Predictions and Ocean Initial Conditions

## CFS Niño 3.4 SST Predictions from Different Lead Times

** ****Earlier onset of cold SST anomalies in spring**
** ****Reasonable SST forecast in July-August**
** ****SST forecast  biased towards cold in September-October**

**CFS update to 1-day lag on Jan. 23 2008 **

**Notes:**
Also look at the prediction of other prominent SST anomalies

## Recent Evolution of Equatorial Far Eastern Pacific SST Biases, Vertical Velocity and D20 Anomaly

** ****Large negative SST biases east of 100W in spring of 2007, and since November 2007**
** ****Might be related to anomalously strong upwelling at 50-meter depth**

_**Recent Evolution of Equatorial Far Eastern Pacific SST Biases, Vertical Velocity and D20 Anomaly**_

## Recent Evolution of GODAS Biases:Sea Surface Height

** ****GODAS SSH anomalies have been consistently too low in the eastern Pacific since December 2006**
** ****GODAS SSH anomalies are about 6cm lower than those Altimetry SSH since December 2007 east of 140W**
** ****What caused the cold biases?**

_**Recent Evolution of GODAS Biases:**__**Sea Surface Height**_

## Summary

**Moderate-strength La Niña (ONI SST < -1C) persisted from SON to NDJ for three consecutive seasons**
**CPC’s prognostic assessment: La Niña will continue into the Spring of 2008**
**Easterly wind anomaly weakened in the western Pacific due to MJO activities**
**Strong anti-cyclone wind anomalies near the western coast of North America favored coastal upwelling and reduced SST**
**Coastal upwelling has been abnormally strong since September with large intraseasonal variability**
**Indian Ocean**
**Near normal SST presented in the tropical Indian Ocean**
**Below-normal convection related to MJO activities**
**Atlantic Ocean**
**Near normal SST presented in the tropical Atlantic Ocean**
**Negative SST anomalies in south-western Atlantic weakened – forced by La Nina?**
**Positive SST anomalies in the extra-tropical North Atlantic weakened**
**NAO index has been persistently positive since September**

_**Summary**_

## Backup Slides

## South Pacific: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx

## Global SSH Anomaly and Anomaly Tendency

_**Global SSH Anomaly and Anomaly Tendency**_

** ****SSHA weakened in the far  eastern tropical Indian Ocean**

## SSH Anomaly (cm) v.s. SST Anomaly (0C) 

** ****Good consistency between SSH and SST in the equatorial latitudes**

## GODAS Equatorial X-Z Temperature

## Recent Evolution of Indian Ocean SST Indices

_**Recent Evolution of Indian Ocean SST Indices**_

**  ****SST are near normal in Indian Ocean**
**- IO Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is near normal**

## Tropical Indian: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx

** ****Below normal rainfall over most of Indian ocean due to influences of MJO**
** ****Above normal surface heat flux, warming up the SST**

_**Tropical Indian: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx**_

**Notes:**
Make one plot ... zero lines

## Recent Evolution of Tropical Atlantic SST Indices

_**Recent Evolution of Tropical Atlantic SST Indices**_

**All  indices are near normal in January 2008**

## Recent Evolution of GODAS Biases:Equatorial Surface (15 m) Zonal Current

**Too strong westward currents**

**Too strong westward currents**

_**Recent Evolution of GODAS Biases:**__**Equatorial Surface (15 m) Zonal Current**_

**Climatological surface currents are westward since July**

**Westward currents**

## Indian Ocean

## Evolution of Equatorial/10oS Indian SST (oC), 850-mb Zonal Wind (m/s), 0-300m Heat Content (oC)

_**Evolution of Equatorial/10oS Indian SST (oC), 850-mb Zonal Wind (m/s), 0-300m Heat Content (oC)**_

** ****Moderate MJO activities**
** ****Strong westerly wind anomaly in December dissipated in early January**
** ****Forced positive HC anomalies in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean**