# Presentation: 926202

## The Future of Energy

**Energy Information Administration**

**Yale Energy Conference**
**November 9, 2007**
**New Haven, CT**

***The Future of Energy***

## The International Energy Outlook 2007 Projects...

- Worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 57 percent between 2004 and 2030.  The highest growth is projected for the developing countries.
- Persian Gulf producers provide 55 percent, or 14 million barrels per day, of the total increase in the world’s conventional liquids supply over the forecast.
- World unconventional production (including biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) accounts for 9 percent of the world liquids supply in 2030.
- Coal is the world’s fastest-growing fuel type in the outlook, increasing at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent. With oil and natural gas prices remaining high, coal is an attractive fuel for nations with access to ample resources, like China, India, and the United States, which account for 86 percent of the projected world coal demand increase.
- Higher fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns, improved reactor designs, and environmental considerations are expected to improve the prospects for nuclear power generation, which is 14 percent higher in 2030 than in last year’s outlook.
- Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030.

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2005 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

**Reference**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**$100**

**$59**

**$36**

## Average Annual GDP and Population Growthfor Selected Regions, 2004-2030 (percent)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**34%**

**8%**

**28%**

**6%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

**24%**

**38%**

**26%**

**23%**

**7%**

**6%**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030

**U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

**Liquid Fuels**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

##  World Energy Consumption,2004, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**240**

**207**

**265**

**294**

**298**

**404**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## Average Annual Growth in DeliveredEnergy Consumption, 2004-2030 (percent)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

##  World Liquids Consumption,2004, 2015, and 2030 (million barrels per day)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**49**

**33**

**52**

**46**

**57**

**61**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Liquids Consumption by Sector, 2004-2030(quadrillion Btu)

**World Liquids Consumption by Sector, 2004-2030****(quadrillion Btu)**

**168**

**184**

**198**

**211**

**224**

**239**

- Source:  EIA, IEO2007

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Liquids Production, 2004-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent)

**Non-OPEC (Conventional)**

**OPEC (Conventional)**

**Unconventional**

**Total**

**53**

**10**

**54**

**118**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Unconventional Liquids Production, 1980-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent)

- Other includes shale oils and other unidentified sources of unconventional liquid fuels.

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## World Proved Oil Reserves, as of January 1, 2007(billion barrels)

*Oil & Gas Journal, *Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006)

**World Total =**
**1,317 billion barrels**

## U.S. Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels per day)

**U.S. Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels per day)**

**Consumption**

**Domestic Supply**

**Net Imports**** **

**60%**

**61%**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

##  World Natural Gas Consumption,2004, 2015, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**51**

**48**

**62**

**67**

**70**

**93**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Natural Gas Consumption by End-Use Sector,2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2007, andCumulative Consumption, 2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

**World Natural Gas Reserves =**
**6,183 Trillion Cubic Feet**
**World Cumulative Consumption,**
** ****2003-2030 =**
** ****3,584 Trillion Cubic Feet**

**Reserves**

**Cumulative Consumption, 2004-2030**

*International Energy Outlook 2007 *and* **Oil & Gas Journal, *Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006)

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**16%**

**21%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

##  World Coal Consumption,2004, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**47**

**68**

**51**

**101**

**59**

**140**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

##  World Net Electricity Generation,2004, 2015, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**9,455**

**6,969**

**11,120**

**11,169**

**13,190**

**17,174**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004-2030(trillion kilowattours)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2030

**(billion kilowatthours)**

**Petroleum**

**Renewables**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

##  World Nuclear Power Generation,2004, 2015, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**2,220**

**399**

**2,335**

**637**

**2,526**

**1,093**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

##  World Renewables Consumption,2004, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**18**

**15**

**22**

**22**

**25**

**29**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-2030 (billion metric tons)

**Coal**

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Total**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

**43%**

**39%**

**40%**

**20%**

**36%**

**21%**

##  World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-2030 (million metric tons)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**11,399**

**9,847**

**13,457**

**13,465**

**14,692**

**19,197**

**1990**

**16,654**

**26,226**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030

**U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030**
**(million metric tons)**

**6,214 in 2010**

**6,944 in 2020**

**Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2030**
**(metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)**

**486 in 2010**

**407 in 2020**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**7,950 in 2030**

**353 in 2030**

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2007*****, February 2007**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2007*****, May 2007**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**