# Presentation: 684705

## ISST Forum

- 4 March 2004

## Outline

- Briefly highlight the goals of the Forum
- Review a few ISST accomplishments and activities
- Update on other new model data and DGEX
- Present updated ISST roadmap
- Discuss Analysis of Record (AOR)

## Background of Forum

- ISST’s effort to engage and inform partners and constituents (yet protect autonomy of group)
- Recognizes value of broad discussion, feedback and consensus building
- Directly solicits issues from field
- Can be used to discuss critical issues (as was used in December’s Forum to discuss DGEX with Regions and NCEP)

## ISST Accomplishments and Activities

- Worked to fill "transmission gaps" on the SBN through several proposals, now nearly implemented
- Additional Eta 12 and GFS data
- Collaborated with MDL on their efforts to implement COOP and gridded MOS
- Number of MOS sites increased by an order of magnitude
- COOP MOS available for GFE ingest via MatchMOSAll
- Provided scientific critique and feedback on a number of critical issues:
- 10-506 directive, NVIWT verification plan, Digital Services CONOPS team, and others
- Investigated and prioritized a spectrum of downscaling possibilities and reported to S&T Committee
- Conceived, developed, and championed the DGEX

## Outline of New Model Data on the Way

- New data sets resulting from initial efforts at May 2003 WR SOO/DOH workshop
- In place: Eta12 surface data through 84 hrs, 4 times/day
- Work in progress: Additional GFS vertical data to 240 hrs (168 hours on 06Z and 18Z cycles)
- Previous requirements in place
- OB3.2 goal: Full Eta12 through 84 hrs
- OB4: Full GFS (adds additional fields)
- Proposed ISST solution to downscaling medium range model data for GFE
- _D_ownscaled _G_FS with _E_ta e_X_tension (DGEX)

## Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX)

- Background and Motivation:
- Designed to bring quick relief to forecasters
- Gives physically consistent and seamless option for high-resolution medium range grids
- Analogous to downscaling GFS since GFS synoptic scale should dominate Eta solution within the small interior domain
- Has received broad support from Regions
- Model Design:
- Eta12 lateral boundary conditions (LBC) from GFS on small domains (CONUS and OCONUS)
- Computing resources from consolidation of 0-84 hr Eta run
- Start DGEX at 78 hr to allow for adjustment to smaller grid by 84 hr (first time available)
- 78-174 hr uses 3-hr GFS LBC; 174-192 hr uses 6-hr GFS LBC
- Operational cycle times – run twice per day per grid:
- 06 and 18Z (00 and 12Z GFS LBC) for CONUS
- 12 and 00Z (06 and 18Z GFS LBC) for OCONUS

## DGEX (continued)

- Special characteristics:
- This will be the first distributed data set that is specifically designed to support GFE/IFPS
- Full model resolution
- Enhanced boundary level data to aid in further downscaling
- There will be a baseline set of SmartInit tools optimally designed to take advantage of the enhanced data set
- Developed by Tim Barker (Boise)
- If _unmodified_ locally will give collaborating offices a consistent starting point

## DGEX Parameter List

- Pressure at surface and MSL
- T and RH  at 2 m, 0-30mb, 30-60mb, 60-90mb, 90-120mb, 120-150mb
- U and V wind at 10 m, 0-30mb, 30-60mb, 60-90mb, 90-120mb, 120-150mb
- Total Precip at surface
- Total Cloud Cover
- Max/Min temperature at 2 m
- Weather Smart Init fields
- Probability of Freezing Precip
- Probability of Frozen Precip
- Probability of Thunderstorms
- Terrain height (only once - not every time-step)
- Synoptic parameters (for assessment of model synoptics):
- Sea Level Pressure
- 1000 mb Z
- 850, 700, 500 mb Z, T, RH, U, V
- 700 mb omega
- 250 mb Z, U, V
- Surface based lifted index

## Wx Production Suite Made Up of Four Uniform Cycles per Day

_**Wx Production Suite Made Up of Four Uniform Cycles per Day**_

- Large block Eta 0-60hr

- Small block Eta 60-84hr

- GFS analysis

- Unused cpu’s

- Slot for DGEX

## DGEX – Domains

**DGEX – Domains**

- Regional subsets only used to transmit files via ftp during evaluation period
- Final distribution will be on grid #218 with GRIB2 compression via new AWIPS SBN.

***CONUS Domain***

***Regional Distribution Tiles***

***Alaska Region Domain***

##              DGEX    vs.  GFS (previous)http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/etapll8day/

- 500 mb
- ht/Vort

- 850 mb
- wind

## DGEX Timeline

- Mid March:  CONUS and AR evaluation
- Forecasters at a subset of WFOs to assess impact on operations
- Better evaluation of internal drift issues (limited set of fields available via a webpage)
- Test Regional WAN distribution method
- HPC will perform model diagnostics
- Mid April:  convergence of Eta runs complete and Eta extension running operationally
- Late May:  DVB-S efforts free up SBN bandwidth
- June:  OB3.2 upgrade to AWIPS configuration
- June:  Eta extension operational via SBN using GRIB2

## Updated ISST Roadmap

- New prioritized list of action topics:
- Analysis of Record
- Digital Services forecast process
- Climatology
- Downscaling (long-term solutions)
- Review of 10-506 (preliminary review to OCWWS by late March)
- Uncertainty and probabilistic information
- Short term actions (next 2-3 months):
- Verification (NVIWT plan)
- Have reviewed and will provide OS&T with feedback and prioritizations
- Input to 10-102 (declaring elements official)

## Ongoing Activities (monitoring)

- Grid change management
- GFE enhancements
- SBN data
- GFS bottleneck on mainframe
- TCM (Tropical Cyclone Message)
- Gridded MOS

## Analysis of Record(A real-time, mesoscale analysis of all forecast grids)

- Lots of ideas and discussion, but effort must be organized quickly!
- Grid spacing must match highest-resolution forecasts
- Will have to mature from early prototype 2-d analysis of primary fields
- Impact of model used for first guess must be accounted for and minimized
- Observation system must be supported
- Some groups already designing systems to include analysis of record and associated analysis techniques

## Analysis of Record (continued)

- This may prove to be the Holy Grail of the digital era
- Unfortunately, it is an integral part of:
- The forecast process
- Verification
- Customer motivation and acceptance
- Conditional climatologies
- Statistical applications and bias corrections
- Numerical weather prediction

## Analysis of Record (continued)

- Seeking a solution
- Charter a team to create an “Analysis of Record” Roadmap
- Diverse team of experts (both within and outside NWS)
- Seek assistance from research community
- USWRP
- CSTAR
- COMET projects
- Plan should thoroughly examine existing analysis systems for possible inclusion or modification
- Inventory and coordinate Regional efforts already underway
- Work in coordination with MDL and NCEP

## Closing comments

- Good progress over past nine months
- still learning and adjusting process as we go
- We endorse new efforts to develop Digital Services Project Office
- desperately need program leadership
- Verification is critical to decision making process and must gain momentum