# Presentation: 472691

## Eve Gruntfest  ecg@uccs.edu
Norman, OK    September 15,2008

**Norman, OK    September 15,2008**

**Advanced ****WAS * IS**** Workshop**** **
**Beyond Storm Warnings:**** **
**A collaboration between stakeholders, **
**the National Weather Service & the **
**Hazardous Weather Testbed **

## Motivation

**Hazardous Weather Testbed developing next generation forecasting tools – *****better ways to communicate what we know in more sophisticated ways***
**WAS ****way – developing with little interaction with folks outside the lab**
**IS ****way – bring in forecasters, emergency managers, private sector to assure more socially relevant new tools**

## Participants

**  ****Forecasters – representing a variety of geographic regions  **
**  ****Emergency managers – local & federal agencies represented**
**  ****Private sector representatives moving in tandem with government **
**   ****partners**
** ****Researchers – geographers, anthropologist with relevant expertise**
** ****Many National Weather Center folks – from labs, grad students**
**  ****Others who want to see how this experiment develops - National **
**   ****Science Foundation, CASA (Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the**
**   ****Atmosphere), NOAA research folks**

**Cross section of users  -  **
**WAS * ISers**** & non ****WAS * ISers**

##    What we know about warnings – Public response components

**Hear/receive**
**Understand**
**Believe**
**Personalize**
**Decide to act**
**Respond**

**The warning process is complex**

## A flash flood warning indicates a more serious threat than a flash flood watch

**92%**

**8%**

**n=1031**

## I take flash flood warnings seriously

**n=1017**

**92%**

**8%**

## False alarm questions:  Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls

**N= 1047**

**Notes:**
Moving on to the second question “Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls” The difference between Austin and Denver residents was not statistically significant.  Majority of respondents, 78%, agreed they would rather have more warnings with the possibility of more false alarms.

## Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding

**N = 1031**

**Notes:**
The difference between Austin and Denver residents was not statistically significant.  We can see that the large majority of respondents, 85%, disagreed that officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding.

## Warning project findings

**Weather information requirements of each **
** ****user community are **_**highly specialized**_
**The weather research community has not focused **
**on the individual needs of specific user communities**

## New culture change initiative

**New culture change initiative**
**since 2005**** **

## WAS*IS addresses two persistent issues

-  **“****I want to do work that integrates meteorology & societal impacts**** ****BUT****...**
**I don’t know how &**
**I don’t know anyone else who does this kind of work”**

## Weather & Society * Integrated Studies  

**Weather & Society * Integrated Studies****  **

## What is WAS*IS? 

**	****1. Building an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders -- from the grassroots up --who are**** *****dedicated to the integration of meteorology & social science  ***
**	****	****	****Mostly early career folks!**

**Capacity building –- creating a community for lifelong collaboration & support**

**Notes:**
Edited

## What is WAS*IS? 

**Providing opportunity to learn & examine *****ideas, methods, & examples***** ****related to integrated weather-society work**

**Tools**** ****– GIS, surveys, qualitative methods**
**Concepts –**** ****initiating & building relationships, many publics, end-to-end-to-end**
**Topics**** ****– risk communication, communicating uncertainty, vulnerability**

**Notes:**
Edited

## The WAS*IS movement 

**Originally envisioned as only 1 workshop**
**6 workshops so far **
**Original 2-part Boulder ****WAS*IS**** (November 2005 & March 2006)**
**Condensed 3-day ****Norman**** ****WAS*IS**** (April 2006) **
**2006 Summer**** ****WAS*IS**** (July 2006)**
**Australia**** ****WAS*IS**** (January-February 2007)**
**2007 Summer ****WAS*IS**** (July 2007)**
**Summer 2008**** ****WAS*IS**** ****held August 8-15**** **

**Each workshop had a distinct character with common mission**** - ****Grand total of 172**** ****WAS*IS****ers****       **

## THE CHANGE IS UNDERWAYRecognizing WAS*ISers’ talent & research--this is just a small sample 

**Rebecca Morss ****- ****National Center for Atmospheric Research**** *****Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society***** **
**problem definition **
**social science research agendas & **
**end-to-end-to-end process**** **

## End-to-End-to-End 

**(e.g., floodplain management)**

**End-to-End-to-End **
**Researchers & Decision-Makers**

**Professional associations**** **

**Private engineering consultants**

**Private land developers**

**Public (e.g., homeowners)**

**Private businesses**

**Local government elected officials**

**State & regional governments**

**Federal government**

**Researchers**

- Morss, R. E., Ralph, F. M., 2007 Use of information by National Weather Service forecasters and emergency manager during CALJET and PACJET-2001 *Weather and Forecasting* **22** doi: 10.1175/WAF1001.1, 539-555
- Morss, R. E., 2005 Problem definition in atmospheric science public policy: The example of observing system design for weather prediction *Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society* **86** 181-191.

**	****Emphasis on social relevance rather than product performance**** ****--*****Provide what public needs/wants***

**Lindsey Barnes - New conceptual **
**model of false alarms & close calls**

**Barnes L, Gruntfest E, Hayden M, Schultz D, Benight C (2007) False Alarms and Close Calls: **
**A Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy. *****Weather and Forecasting ***
**22, 1140-1147**

## Public – private – nonprofit collaborations to improve all elements of weather enterprise

**with emphases on**
**Better communication **
**More geographic specificity**
**Reduced confusion**
**Partnership opportunities**
**	**

**Kevin Barjenbruch-**
**WCM Salt Lake**

**Melissa**
**Tuttle Carr-**
**The Weather**
**Channel**

## Considering social impacts in forecasts

**  ****Types of questions to appreciate**
**Who will be impacted?**
**Are people awake/sleeping/ driving/coaching, getting married?**
**What has happened up to this point?**
**Have there already been fatalities?**
**What are the TV stations saying? **
**Have earlier storms been “missed” ?**

**Craig Schmidt, **
**Division Chief, **
**Western Region**
**Committed to **
**Integrating societal**
**Impacts into **
**National Weather**
**          ****Service**

## Isabelle Ruin - National Center for Atmospheric Research Post- doc: Human exposure during flash flood --  New time/space analysis

**Isabelle Ruin - National Center for Atmospheric ****Research Post- doc: Human exposure during flash ****flood --  ****New time/space analysis**

**Notes:**
On the 5 deaths related to vehicle usage during crisis (and for which we were able to use accurate and reliable data), we compared the time of the accident with the dynamic of the flood (cumulated peak discharge) in the watershed responsible for the fatality. We also compared these data with the timing of the rainfall warnings issued by Météo-France.  
This graph shows that 2 of the deaths happened before the red warnings during the orange warnings (cf. Meteo France color code) that we’ll see latter are not considered by the public to warn for fatal danger. 

Meteo-France color code significance:
Green: No particular awareness of the weather is required.
Yellow: The weather is potentially dangerous. The weather phenomena that have been forecast are not unusual, but be attentive if you intend to practice activities exposed to meteorological risks. Keep informed about the expected meteorological conditions and do not take any avoidable risk.
Orange: The weather is dangerous. Unusual meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Damage and casualties are likely to happen. Be very vigilant and keep regularly informed about the detailed expected meteorological conditions. Be aware of the risks that might be unavoidable. Follow any advice given by your authorities.
Red: The weather is very dangerous. Exceptionally intense meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Major damage and accidents are likely, in many cases with threat to life and limb, over a wide area. Keep frequently informed about detailed expected meteorological conditions and risks. Follow orders and any advice given by your authorities under all circumstances, be prepared for extraordinary measures.

## New attention to weather & vulnerability  

**Developing a cold warning system **
**for livestock**

**Tanja Fransen**
**National Weather**
**Service, Glasgow, **
**MT**

## Karen Pennesi – Anthropologist - U of Western Ontario - Public perceptions of rain prophets & the Federal Weather Service in Brazil

**    ****Predictions based on observations of insects, animals, birds, plants, winds, stars, clouds, & other natural phenomena **

**Pennesi K (2007) Improving Forecast Communication: Linguistic and Cultural Considerations. *****Bulletin American Meteorological Society*****, 88, 7, 1033-1044**

**Notes:**
Meteorologists at FUNCEME are not the only ones making climate predictions in Ceará.
For generations, traditional predictions have been made by profetas da chuva or rain prophets. They are typically older farmers who make predictions based on a synthesis of their continual observations of insects, animals, birds, plants, winds, stars, clouds, & other phenomena in nature known to indicate rain or drought. For example: when the flamboyant tree flowers, it is a sign that the rainy season will be a good one. When the joão-de-barro bird builds its nest with the opening facing away from the direction of the rain, it indicates abundant rains. When the cururu frog begins to sing, the rains will come soon. If the nest of the cupim, or termite, is full of young or of winged ants, there rainy season will be a good one. The rain prophets are known within their communities as people who have a greater knowledge of nature & who have achieved a certain level of accuracy in their predictions. 
Since its beginnings, FUNCEME has found itself in competition with the rain prophets.  In rural communities especially, the population is divided on whose predictions are more accurate & whose methods are more reliable. Local media have been reporting on the predictions of both the rain prophets & FUNCEME for the last twenty years, often emphasizing the conflicts between the two views. 

## Randy Peppler – Leading efforts at U of Oklahoma in cultural studies of weather 

**	****Geography dissertation topic**
**     ****Native American perceptions of weather information & how their stories change with migrations to different environments**

** ****Interdisciplinary doctoral committees**

## SSWIM TeamUniversity of 

**SSWIM Team****University of **
**Oklahoma**

**Sponsored by University of Oklahoma & National Oceanic  & Atmospheric Administration**

## Funding ~50% NOAA & 50% U of Oklahoma	Three main goals

**1.  To ****recognize & develop ****the existing social science activities at the National Weather Center**
**2.  To ****build**** ****a strong integrated community of practitioners, researchers, & others to coordinate new projects & proposals that weave social science ****into the fabric of the National Weather Center**
**3.  To ****assess**** the viability & interest in a new interdisciplinary Ph.D. program at the University of Oklahoma focused on the societal impacts of weather & climate change**
**Focus on the willing – no one being dragged into these new projects**

## 						3 year effort -  personnel

**Dr. Eve Gruntfest geographer with 30 years experience as social scientist working with meteorologists**
**2 Ph.D. students working on interdisciplinary degrees - ****Dedicated to integrating social science into National Weather Center**
**1 full time Post-doc ****- Poised to take leadership of integrated social science activities**

## Post – doctoral scientistHeather Lazrus (moving to Norman in January)

**Environmental anthropologist**
**Extensive experience with NOAA Fisheries – conducting interviews in Alaska & Pacific Northwest **
**How climate change & new policies affecting livelihoods & outlooks**
**Dissertation research **
**10 months living on TUVALU - small island nation in South Pacific – how are THEY dealing with sea level rise?**

## Kim Klockow

**Interdisciplinary Ph.D. - Meteorology & Economics, Finance**
**Master’s work in Professional Meteorology at OU**
**Interviewing farmers about how they value weather information from the Oklahoma mesonet**
**Ph.D. to focus on new ways to verify warnings **

## Gina Eosco

**Pursuing Ph.D. in risk communication at OU**
**Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society **
**Master’s work at Cornell University **
**Interviewing forecasters & government officials about their interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, *****a hurricane track graphic tool***

## Workshop objectives

**1.  Introduce new technologies & directions to a diverse spectrum of potential future collaborators. **
**2.  Define & address the broad spectrum of end-user needs from the super-user to diverse segments of the general public  - ****focus on emergency managers, hospitals & individuals with higher vulnerability as well as private industry**
** ****3. Clarify & suggest new ways to communicate uncertainty & storm information - ****focus on graphic representations of storm timelines & uncertainty and communication through new & emerging technologies**

##  
4.Define new measures of success to assess service. Change concepts of storm verification including close calls & false alarms
5.Provide suggestions for the evolution of the Experimental Warning Program design for spring experiments with stakeholders goals
 6.Develop ideas for new ways to change the culture within all levels of the National Weather Service to facilitate operational implementation
 7.Create visibility & consider possible future funding opportunities for Hazardous Weather Testbed activities & stakeholder interactions that help move The National Weather Service from WAS to IS

** **
**4.Define new measures of success to assess service. Change concepts of storm verification including close calls & false alarms**
**5.Provide suggestions for the evolution of the Experimental Warning Program design for spring experiments with stakeholders goals**
** ****6.Develop ideas for new ways to change the culture within all levels of the National Weather Service to facilitate operational implementation**
** ****7.Create visibility & consider possible future funding opportunities for Hazardous Weather Testbed activities & stakeholder interactions that help move The National Weather Service from ****WAS**** to**** IS**

**Workshop objectives**

## Ground rules

**Advanced ****WAS * IS**** is not like any other workshop**
**NO Acronyms – except  NOAA, HWT & ****WAS * IS!**
**Meet & mingle to foster new collaborations & projects**** **
**Best uses of our short time together**
**Breaks & meals**
**Keep everyone engaged – small groups **
**Minimized glazed eyeballs**
**Imagine yourself in other people’s shoes**
**Everyone’s opinion matters**

## Challenges of this bold experiment

**We speak different languages**
**Please remember not everyone is a meteorologist **
**What are appropriate thresholds for risks, for geographic specificity, how to show?**
**WAS * IS**** framework is not common to all of us**
** ****Technically difficult**
**Using the scenario – Trade offs of anchoring this way  - Hazardous Weather Testbed & other hazards**
**Inventing innovative ways to communicate uncertainty**
***Even forecasters need more than l week to understand what we are going to tackle in 2.5 days***

## Challenges of this bold experiment

** ****By tomorrow afternoon & Wednesday morning we will be evaluating options for moving forward**
**More workshops – with other Weather Center Laboratories, Groups?**
**More partners **
**Other big ideas! **
**Sustainable brain trust?**

## WAS * IS means changing from WAS to IS

**WAS physical scientist**
**goes to WAS * IS workshop**

**Becomes WAS social **
**scientist! **

**Moving from ****WAS**** to**** IS****...is not an instant transition! ****WAS*ISers**** realize the joys of CONNECTING WITH STAKEHOLDERS**

## Greg Mortenson’s Three Cups of Tea analogy One Man's Mission to Promote Peace . . . One School at a Time (Best selling book about building schools in Afghanistan & Pakistan)

**1****st**** cup- stranger **
**2****nd**** cup- honored guest **
**3****rd**** cup- you’re part of family... takes years **
**With 172 official WAS*ISers & hundreds of other like-minded hard-workers**
**Social science & policy are having our 2****nd**** cup of tea with meteorology**
**We’re not family yet – but we’re no longer strangers**** **

## The move from WAS to IS occurs when 

**National Weather Service**

**Private forecasters**

**Local Communities**

**The move from ****WAS**** to ****IS ****occurs when **
**stovepipes are not the model - Bring social **
**science into programs & research efforts in sustainable ways **

**Meteorologists, Hydrologists**

**Universities**

**Research Centers**

**Urban Drainage Districts**

**Broadcast meteorologists**

## What did the most influential players look like in meteorology prior to WAS*IS & SSWIM 

## Slide 40

## WAS * ISers are NOT the same people with new technologies!

## WAS*ISers & SSWIMers are changing the culture to integrate societal impacts in sustainable ways

## Thanks to Steve Koch, Lynn Maximuk, & Mike Hudson from NOAA Central Regional Team for funding this workshop 

**Thanks to Steve Koch, Lynn Maximuk, & Mike Hudson from NOAA Central Regional Team for funding this workshop**** **

## LET’S GET our Advanced  

**Thanks to all of you for coming & participating in this AMAZING opportunity**
**LET’S GET our Advanced  **
**WAS * IS****  ****BREWING**!
**We have ****BIG**** work to do**