# Presentation: 175943

## Warning Interpretability

- Pete Wolf
- NWS Jacksonville FL

- *Slide notes are included. To access them, right-click, then from “Screen” sub-menu, choose “Speaker Notes”.

**Notes:**
This presentation focuses on an aspect of weather warnings rarely focused, particularly when it comes to audio broadcasts....interpretability. How easy is it for NOAA weather radio listeners to interpret critical warning information from audio broadcasts?

## Let’s say you live in Ortega (red oval) in southern Duval County, south of downtown Jacksonville, Florida.

On the next slide, you will hear a message. Play it only once!

When the recording is finished, go to the subsequent slide.

- On the next slide, you will hear a message. Play it **only once**!
- When the recording is finished, go to the subsequent slide.

**Exercise**

**Notes:**
Try this exercise. The instructions are given on the slide. Only listen to the audio broadcast once, since often NWR listeners get only one chance (prior to being affected by severe weather) to hear such a broadcast if within a lengthy broadcast cycle.

## Let’s say you live in Ortega, in southern Duval County, south of downtown Jacksonville, Florida.

On this slide, you will hear a message. Listen to it only once!

When the recording is finished, go to the subsequent slide.

- On this slide, you will hear a message. Listen to it **only once**!
- When the recording is finished, go to the subsequent slide.

**Exercise**

**Notes:**
Try this exercise. The instructions are given on the slide. Only listen to the audio broadcast once, since often NWR listeners get only one chance (prior to being affected by severe weather) to hear such a broadcast if within a lengthy broadcast cycle.

## Answer the Following Questions:(Do not return to the prior slide)

- 	(a) YES		(b) NO		(c) UNSURE
- 2) Are you located within the part of Duval County mentioned in the warning?
- 	(a) YES		(b) NO		(c) UNSURE
- 3) Where are the severe storms located, relative to your location (Ortega)?
-      (a) West		(b) North		(c) South 		(d) East
- 4) What conditions, expected from the severe t-storms, were mentioned in the audio broadcast?
- 5) What direction and speed were the thunderstorms moving?
- 6) When does the warning expire?

**Answer the Following Questions:****(Do not return to the prior slide)**

*This slide will display for about 45 seconds.  You can pause it if you need more time.*

## Here’s The Actual Warning in the Broadcast

**Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the following locations...**
**Southern Nassau County in Northeast Florida**
**Western Duval County in Northeast Florida**
**Northern Clay County in Northeast Florida**
**until 700 pm EST.**
**At 610 pm EST...Doppler Radar indicated a line of severe**
**thunderstorms extending from 6 miles southwest of St. George to near Baldwin to 7 miles south of Lawtey...or extending from 15 miles west of Callahan to 18 miles west of Downtown Jacksonville to 15 miles southwest of Middleburg...moving east at 40 mph. The storms are capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph, heavy rainfall and deadly cloud-to-ground lightning.**
**The storms will be near...**
**Bryceville at 620 pm EST**
**Nassau Village and Jacksonville Heights at 635 pm EST**
**Jacksonville International Airport at 650 pm EST**
**Riverside at 655 pm EST**
**This is a dangerous line of storms...with a history of producing damaging winds. Take cover now!**
**If severe weather threatens...move to a sturdy shelter. Stay **
**Away from windows. Avoid electrical appliances...including**
**The telephone...when severe storms are in the area......... **

**Here’s The Actual Warning in the Broadcast**

**Notes:**
Here is the text product on the audio broadcast you listened to (the warning area is shown in maroon, for a squall line indicated in orange).  Accurate interpretation of this information requires (1) excellent listening skills, and (2) very good geographical knowledge of the area. Many who listen to NWR broadcasts may struggle with both of these, making much of the information in the warning message difficult to interpret.

## “Answer Key”

- 1) **Yes**. Ortega is within the warning polygon.
- 2) **Unsure.** The text mentions western Duval County, but where does western end and eastern begin?
- 3) **West. **
- 4) **60 mph winds, heavy rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning.**
- 5) **East at 40 mph.**
*6)*** 700 pm EST.**

- The map to the right shows the warning polygon
- (maroon), for a squall line highlighted in orange.
- Ortega is shown in red oval.

**Notes:**
Here are the “correct answers”. How well did you do?  How well would those with poor listening skills, and who are not familiar with the area, have done in this exercise?

## Discussion

- Accurately understanding the audio broadcast (e.g. via NOAA Weather Radio) requires:
- 	- Excellent listening skills
- 		- May only get 1 chance if part of a lengthy broadcast cycle.
- 	- Excellent geographic knowledge
- 		- If a person’s town is not mentioned in the warning, is that
- 		  interpreted to mean the town is not in danger?
- 		- Who understands portions of counties?
- Why is this important?
- 	- A timely, accurate warning is meaningless to customers if the
- 	  warning information cannot be easily understood.
- 	- How one interprets the information can influence how one
-                ultimately responds to the information.

**Notes:**
Discussion points. 

## For people “listening” to warning message:

- How can it be improved?
- 1) Remove geographical information.
- Those who need geographical information can access it via online or local media.
- NWR is best used as a tool to indicate that a warning has been issued for a given location.
- 2) Repeat the most critical information.
- 3) Ensure all towns in the warning are mentioned in the broadcast.
- If a town is not mentioned, and others are, do people in the unmentioned town assume they are not in danger?
- 4) Shorten the message given average person’s short attention span.
- What other improvements could be beneficial?
- 1) Reduce the NWR broadcast cycle, to allow the warning message to be played more than once.

**Notes:**
More discussion points, focused on how we can improve the communication of warning information via audio broadcasts like NWR.

## A Better Warning Broadcast

- Listen to the message that plays.

**Notes:**
Alternative warning broadcast.

## Here’s the new text:

**Note the following:**
- Broadcast is 35 sec long, vs. 85 sec for original warning message you heard.
- No geographical information in text.
- All towns in warning are mentioned, including Ortega (this time).
- Key information repeated at the end.
**This is not the actual text product sent to the media or Emergency Managers.**
- It is a script that removes the unwanted information for the audio broadcast.
**Compare this message to the original one. **
- Which is easier for a listener to interpret (given listening skills and geographical knowledge)?

**The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a...**
**Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the following locations...**
**   ****Southern Nassau County in Northeast Florida**
**   ****Western Duval County in Northeast Florida**
**   ****Northern Clay County in Northeast Florida**
**Until 700 pm EST.**
**Locations within the warning include...**
**Callahan...Nassau Village...Bryceville...Baldwin...Manville...**
**Jacksonville Heights...Jacksonville Int’l Airport...Normandy...**
**Riverside...Ortega...Bellair...Orange Park...Doctors Inlet...**
**Middleburg.**
**Repeating...for these communities...a Severe Thunderstorm**
**Warning has been issued until 700 pm EST.**

**Notes:**
The new text is shown on this slide, yielding a broadcast length less than half of the original, and including a repeat of the primary point of the message. This could be generated as a script that only broadcast the key information from the original warning text product.

## Any questions/comments?

- Pete Wolf, SOO
- National Weather Service
- Jacksonville, Florida
- peter.wolf@noaa.gov
- 904-741-5186 ext. 224

**Notes:**
Final slide with contact information.