# Presentation: 854704

## Russian Volcano Monitoring and Ash Cloud Warning:  2007 status report

**Russian Volcano Monitoring and Ash Cloud Warning:  ****2007 status report**

## Air Routes and Volcanoes of the North Pacific

- * >60 volcanoes in Kamchatka and the Kuriles
- * high levels of explosive activity
- * 200+ flights per day on vulnerable routes

## Russian volcanoes have been very active!

- Four volcanoes at ORANGE today
- Two volcanoes in nearly constant eruption since late 1990s
- AVO partners with the scientific organizations in Russia that conduct monitoring and report dangerous eruptions
- NWS and FAA work with their counterparts to address the warning infrastructure, protocols
- International nature of this effort produces many unique challenges

## KVERT – 2007

-  two Russian science Institutes
-  10 seismically monitored volcanoes
-  Satellite surveillance
-  Ground observers, pilot reports
-  Weekly updates
-  Emergency call-downs
-  Funded in part by Russian ATM – with occasional crises!

## SVERT – 2007

-  one Russian science Institute
-  ZERO seismically monitored volcanoes
-  MODIS satellite surveillance
-  Minimal ground observers Irregular reporting
-  Emergency procedure in place
-  ZERO directed funding
-  No eruptions!?

## Other Key Players:

**Other Key Players:**

- AVO monitors Russian volcanoes by satellite; coverage is more limited
- Tokyo VAAC has responsibility for Russian volcanic ash cloud warnings
- Yelizovo Met Watch Office in Petropavlovsk
- Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk Met Watch Office (untested)
- NOAA/ARL running HYSPLIT in watch mode for active Russian volcanoes
- Anchorage VAAC and CWSU and controllers....

## Information Releases from Russia

- Kamchatkan and Northern Kuriles Volcanic ActivityKVERT INFORMATION RELEASE 17-07Sunday, May 13, 2007, 21:20 KDT (08:20 UTC)BEZYMIANNY VOLCANO: 55°58'N, 160°36'E; Elevation 2,895 mCURRENT LEVEL OF CONCERN COLOR CODE IS **ORANGE**Growth of the lava dome continues. The activity of the volcano could affect low-flying aircraft in the vicinity of the volcano.According to seismic data from Kozyrevsk, probably the explosive eruption occurred at Bezymianny volcano from 14:30 till 15:00 UTC on May 11. According to satellite data, an ash plume extended to the north from the volcano. The ash fall was observed at Klyuchi from about 16:00 UTC till ~22:00 on May 11. Because the eruption of Klyuchevskoy volcano continued too ash deposits at Klyuchi were a mix of ash from Bezymianny and a small part (as addition) of ash from Klyuchevskoy. According to satellite data, large plumes different directions were observed over the Northern Kamchatka from 16:00 UTC on May 11. According to visual data from Kozyrevsk, at 22:30 UTC on May 11, there was one of hot avalanches that happens after the eruption. Ash plume rose up to 4.0 km ASL. According to satellite data, a long thermal anomaly (11 pixels in size) extending to the south-east from the lava dome was noted at 18:58 UTC on May 12 (NOAA-15). Probably this anomaly reflection hot deposits of pyroclastic flow.Clouds obscured the volcano several last days.IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS, PLEASE CONTACT:Olga Girina, KVERT, IVS FED RASE-mail: girina@kscnet.ruTel. (41522) 58627Tom Murray, Scientist-in-Charge, AVOE-mail: tlmurray@usgs.govTel. 907-786-7497

## Informal e-mail notification

- Volcano Sheveluch
- Explosive activity continues.
- According to seismic  data, ash plume or avalanche was on
- May 08 at 21:30 UTC (duration ~ 2min). Approximately height of this
- ash plume was ~5600 m(~18200ft)ASL (based on seismic
- signal envelope).
- No video and satellite data.

## Tokyo VAAC VAA (Volcanic Ash Advisory)

- FVFE01 RJTD 141903
- (STX)
- VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY
- ISSUED: 20070514/1903Z
- VAAC: TOKYO
- VOLCANO: KLIUCHEVSKOI 1000-26
- LOCATION: N5603E16038
- AREA: RUSSIA
- SUMMIT ELEVATION: 4835 M
- ADVISORY NUMBER: 2007/37
- INFORMATION SOURCE: MTSAT-1R
- AVIATION COLOUR CODE: NIL
- ERUPTION DETAILS: POSSIBLE ERUPTION OBS AT 20070514/1632Z FL170 EXTD
- N ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
- OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 14/1732Z
- OBS ASH CLOUD: UNKNOWN/FL170 N5607E16040-N5633E16104-N5640E16043 MOV
- N 20KT
- FCST ASH CLOUD +6 HR: 14/2332Z SFC/FL200 N5800E15700-N5800E15800-N590
- 0E15800-N5900E15700
- FCST ASH CLOUD +12 HR: 15/0532Z SFC/FL200 N5930E15200-N5930E15330-N60
- 00E15330-N6000E15200
- FCST ASH CLOUD +18 HR: 15/1132Z SFC/FL200 N6000E14730-N6000E14900-N60
- 30E14900-N6030E14730
- NEXT ADVISORY: 20070514/2100Z
- REMARKS: NIL=
- (ETX)

## SIGMETs from Yelizovo MWO

- ZCZC 000 63320
- WVRA31 RUPK 141945
- UHPP SIGMET 1 VALID 141945/142330 UHPP-
- UHPP PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKY FIR VA ERUPTION
- KLIUCHEVSKOI LOC N5603E16038 VA CLD OBS AT 1732Z
- UNKNOWN/FL170 N5607E16040-N5633E16104-N5640E16043 MOV N 20KT
- FCST 2332Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL200 N5800E15700-N5800E15800-N5900E15800-N5900E15700
- OTLK 150532Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL200 N5930E15200-N5930E15330-
- N6000E15330-N6000E15200
- FCST 151132Z VA CLD APRX SFC/FL200 N6000E14730-N6000E14900-
- N6030E14900-N6030E14730=
- NNNN

## How does information flow?

**How does information flow?**

- Many different potential paths and time-frames depending on time of day, weather, level of instrumentation, ‘surprise’ factor
- Initial notification can come from KVERT, Tokyo VAAC, pilots, Yelizovo, AVO
- E-mail first, sometimes telephone contact, followed by Information Release (e-mail, fax, web-posting)
- AVO conducts call-down in the US for ash at or above 20,000 feet ASL

## What has improved in Kamchatka?

**What has improved in **_**Kamchatka**_**?**

- Email has prompted more communication
- Satellite detection more reliable (but not 100%)
- Several new seismometers installed
- Seismic detection of clouds has become fairly “routine” for chronically erupting volcanoes, but height information often lacking or very uncertain
- Thermal anomaly precursor forecast for Bezymianny
- Tokyo VAAC is vigilant and quick on the draw
- Yelizovo MWO is issuing more SIGMETs
- _WE HAVE HAD NO DAMAGING ENCOUNTERS _despite high levels of activity and many hundreds of  ash clouds since 1993

## What has improved in the Kuriles?

**What has improved in the **_**Kuriles**_**?**

- SVERT founded, is working, and systematically looking at the arc – a first!
- SVERT spotted two small events and has developed a working, albeit not well-tested, alerting protocol
- SVERT staff has received some training and exposure to aviation industry issues
- SVERT and AVO have worked to educate the aviation community and authorities about Kurile volcano hazards to aviation

## Room for improvement:

**Room for improvement:**

- Russian groups under-funded and not well-supported as organizations with a need for growth and development
- Russian authorities don’t agree on who “owns” this mission to warn aviation
- 24 hour operation uncertain
- Satellite analysis skills uneven and inconsistently used
- Ash-cloud height determination and verification abilities
- Triangulation with Tokyo (and AVO and Anchorage VAAC) poor to non-existent: language, cultural, time-zone issues
- SIGMET inconsistencies Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk Met Watch Office (untested)

## What are AVO, NWS, FAA doing?

**What are AVO, NWS, FAA doing?**

- AVO backs up Russian monitoring but this is not a long-term solution: local expertise needed
- FAA and NWS are vigilant regarding active Russian volcanoes
- Organization building, advocacy as we can
- Looking for and funding training opportunities
- Providing feedback on performance

## What users can do?

**What users can do?**

- Document any issues with information flow and service so Russian groups can learn from mistakes and improve
- Voice your concerns to AVO, KVERT, ICAO, Russian ATM, and ???
- Be aware of the hazard and the gaps in monitoring, especially in the Kuriles