# Presentation: 656914

## MCD45  Burned Area (500m approximate day of burning) 

- David Roy*, Luigi Boschetti#, Chris Justice#
- *South Dakota State University, GIS Center of Excellence
- # University of Maryland, Department of Geography

## Overview

- Algorithm Background
- MCD45 Product Suite
- Product Examples
- Product Data Structure
- Validation
- Collection 5 Recommendations

## Algorithm

- New approach - *Rolling BRDF based expectation change detection*
- Semi-Physically based; less dependent upon imprecise but noise tolerant classification techniques
- Automated, without training data or human intervention
- Applied independently per pixel to daily gridded MODIS 500m land surface reflectance time series
- 	=>** map 500m location and approximate day of burning**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

## The challenge: change detection of Burned Areas

- BRDF Effects

**The challenge: change detection of Burned Areas**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

- gaps

## The challenge: change detection of Burned Areas

- BRDF Effects

**The challenge: change detection of Burned Areas**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

- gaps

- Day of burning

- Persistence of the signal

## Conceptual Scheme

**Conceptual Scheme**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**time**

****

- observed

## Conceptual Scheme

**Conceptual Scheme**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**time**

****

- observed

- t-1

## Conceptual Scheme

**Conceptual Scheme**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**time**

****

- observed

- t-1

- BRDF Inversion window

## Conceptual Scheme

**Conceptual Scheme**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**time**

****

- observed

- t-1

******(t|t-1)**

- 

- predicted

- BRDF Inversion window

## Conceptual Scheme

**Conceptual Scheme**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**time**

****

- observed

- t-1

******(t|t-1)**

- 

******(t|t-1)**

- predicted

- BRDF Inversion window

## Conceptual Scheme

**Conceptual Scheme**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**time**

****

- observed

- t

******(t+1|t)**

- 

******(t+1|t)**

- predicted

- BRDF Inversion window

## ...looking at one algorithm step:

**Predicted Reflectance**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**Notes:**
Production, first of a kind, multiannual product 

## ...looking at one algorithm step:

**Observed Reflectance**

**Predicted Reflectance**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**Notes:**
Production, first of a kind, multiannual product 

## ...looking at one algorithm step:

**Observed Reflectance**

**Predicted Reflectance**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**Notes:**
Production, first of a kind, multiannual product 

## ...looking at one algorithm step:

**Observed Reflectance**

**Predicted Reflectance**

**probability of change:**
**Z-score = (predicted-observed)/error**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**Notes:**
Production, first of a kind, multiannual product 

## Conceptual Scheme

**Conceptual Scheme**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**time**

****

- observed

- t

- BRDF Inversion window

******(t+1|t)**

- 

******(t+1|t)**

- predicted

**first detection**

- Consistency
-  window

## Conceptual Scheme

**Conceptual Scheme**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**time**

****

- observed

- t

******(t+2|t)**

- 

******(t+2|t)**

- predicted

**first detection**

- Consistency
-  window

- BRDF Inversion window

## Conceptual Scheme

**Conceptual Scheme**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**time**

****

- observed

- t

******(t+3|t)**

- 

******(t+3|t)**

- predicted

**first detection**

- Consistency
-  window

- BRDF Inversion window

## Conceptual Scheme

**Conceptual Scheme**

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**time**

****

- observed

- t

******(t+4|t)**

- 

******(t+4|t)**

- predicted

**first detection**

- Consistency
-  window

- BRDF Inversion window

## The MCD45 product suite

**Monthly Product (MCD45A1)**
- 500m approximate day of burning over month +/- 8 days
- MODLAND 10x10 degree tiles
- extensive QA & metadata
- EOS-HDF
**Annual Synthesis Product (forthcoming)**
-  as monthly product but for calendar year
**CMG 0.25 deg product (forthcoming)**
- aggregated information for climate modeling community (continental scale, easily accessible format)

***MCD45***
***Product Suite ***

## Collection 4 Protoyping

- Central Southern Africa
- 500m burned areas

***Product ***
***Example***

## 500m burned areas

- 5 months 2002
- Zambia/Zimbabwe
- 650*500km

***Product ***
***Example***

## 1km active fires

- 5 months 2002
- Zambia/Zimbabwe
- 650*500km

***Product ***
***Example***

## Australia

- 500m burned areas
- 1 month 2002

***Product ***
***Example***

## Australia

- 1km active fires
- 1 month 2002

***Product ***
***Example***

## Russian Federation

- 500m burned areas
- 1 month 2002

***Product ***
***Example***

## Russian Federation

- 1km active fires
- 1 month 2002

***Product ***
***Example***

## Brazil, 

- Brazil,
- Southern Para,
- 500m burned areas
- 1 month 2002

***Product ***
***Example***

## Brazil,

- Southern Para,
- 1km active fires
- 1 month 2002

***Product ***
***Example***

## First Global Collection 5 ProductNovember 2000 (shown in 40 x 40km grid cells)

***Product ***
***Example***

- First Global Collection 5 ProductNovember 2000 (shown in 40 x 40km grid cells)

## First Global Collection 5 ProductNovember 2000 (shown in 10 x 10km grid cells)

- First Global Collection 5 ProductNovember 2000 (shown in 10 x 10km grid cells)

***Product ***
***Example***

## Product Data Structure

**For each 500m pixel:**
**“****Burndate” **the approximate day of burning
**“****BA pixel QA”** confidence of the detection (high, moderate, low).
**“****Number Passed”** number of observations in the time series after/before “Burndate” that were labeled as burned.
**“****Number Used”** number of observations in the time series after/before “Burndate” that were available for consideration (“Number Used” ≥ “Number Passed”).
**“****Direction”** direction in which burning was detected (forward in time, backward, or both).
**“****Surface Type”** information describing the static land cover type, worst sensing acquisition and aerosol state conditions over the input time series.
**“****Gap Range”** information describing the largest and the second largest number of missing/cloudy days (if any) in the time series
**+ Tile level ECS, MODLAND and product specific metadata**

***MCD45A1***
***Data Structure ***

## A closer look at the monthly product...

**A closer look at the monthly product...**

**Tile h17 v06 2000306**
**(November 2000)**

***MCD45A1***
***Data Structure ***

- SDS “Burndate”

- 205

- 251

## A closer look at the monthly product...

**A closer look at the monthly product...**

**Tile h17 v06 2000306**
**(November 2000)**

***MCD45A1***
***Data Structure ***

- SDS “Burndate”

- 205

- 251

- 500m Burnt Areas

- 1km Active Fires

## A closer look at the monthly product...

**A closer look at the monthly product...**

**Tile h17 v06 2000306**
**(November 2000)**

***MCD45A1***
***Data Structure ***

- SDS “Burndate”

- 205

- 251

## A closer look at the monthly product...

**A closer look at the monthly product...**

***MCD45A1***
***Data Structure ***

- SDS “Burndate”

- 205

- 251

## A closer look at the monthly product...

**A closer look at the monthly product...**

***MCD45A1***
***Data Structure ***

- 1

- 2

- 3

- 4

- SDS “BA Pixel QA”

## A closer look at the monthly product...

**A closer look at the monthly product...**

***MCD45A1***
***Data Structure ***

- 1

- 2

- 3

- SDS “BA Pixel QA”

- SDS “Direction”

- 1(forward)

- 2(backward)

- 3(both)

## A closer look at the monthly product...

**A closer look at the monthly product...**

***MCD45A1***
***Data Structure ***

- SDS “gap_range1”: gap start

- 277

- 365

## A closer look at the monthly product...

**A closer look at the monthly product...**

***MCD45A1***
***Data Structure ***

- SDS “gap_range1”: gap duration

- 1

- 16

## A closer look at the monthly product...

**A closer look at the monthly product...**

***MCD45A1***
***Data Structure ***

- SDS “gap_range2”: gap start

- 277

- 365

## A closer look at the monthly product...

**A closer look at the monthly product...**

***MCD45A1***
***Data Structure ***

- SDS “gap_range2”: gap duration

- 1

- 16

## Validation Plan

***Validation ***

**Currently CEOS stage 1 validation**
- “*the product accuracy has been estimated using a small number of independent measurements obtained from selected locations and time periods and ground-truth/field program efforts*”
**Stage 2 by the end of Collection 5**
- “*the product accuracy has been assessed over a widely distributed set of locations and time periods via several groundtruth and validation efforts*”
**Stage 3 in Collection 6**
- “*product accuracy has been assessed and the uncertainties in the product well established via independent measurements in a systematic and statistically robust way*”

## Southern Africa 

**Southern Africa **
**STAGE 1 Validation**
- 40 ETM+ acquisitions
-  20 ETM+ scenes
-  500,000 km2
- MODIS Burned area
- = 0.85 “true” burned area

***Validation ***

## Burned Area Collection 5 Recommendations

- This is a new product - there is no Collection 4 product
- Product user manual and ATBD are posted on the MODIS Fire website
- 		http://modis-fire.umd.edu
- Collection 5 production of MCDA1 has started
- reprocessing of November 2000+
- forward production of February 2007+
- Note, changes to the Collection 5 algorithm are likely
- Change descriptions will be posted on the MODIS Fire website
- Product version reflected in the product PGEVersion metadata
- Product quality issues posted on the LDOPE QA Web Site

***Recommendations***

- THANKS

## Scheme of the detection

***Algorithm***
***Background ***

**Contextual iterative procedure:**
**Burn candidates are selected if they provide persistent evidence of fire occurrence. **
**The measured persistence varies depending on gaps in the reflectance time series and the timing of the fire relative to non-missing data, an iterative rather than simple thresholding approach is used**