# Presentation: 186739

## OFCM Special Session: Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling for Homeland Security  

**Samuel P. Williamson**
**Federal Coordinator for Meteorology**
**June 19, 2003**

*In conjunction with the*
*GMU Conference on Transport and Dispersion Modeling *

## Welcome

**Special Thanks to **
**Dr. Zafer Boybeyi**
**Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)**
**&**
**George Mason University**

## Theme

***Improving and optimizing the capability of Federal***
***agencies to support homeland security requirements***
***for atmospheric modeling of the release from weapons***
***of mass destruction through a shared understanding***
***of National operational and research needs.  ***

## Overview

**Background**
**Objectives**
**Agenda**
**Summary**

## Background

**OFCM has a long history in coordinating ATD modeling activities among the Federal agencies**
**In June 2000, conducted Workshop on Multiscale Atmospheric Dispersion within the Federal Community**
**In December 2001, conducted a Workshop on Effective Emergency Response**
**In January 2002, OFCM formed the Joint Action Group for the Selection and Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Models (JAG/SEATD)**

## Background

**In August 2002, JAG/SEATD published its report: *****Atmospheric Modeling from Weapons of Mass Destruction: Response by Federal Agencies in Support of Homeland Security***
**Was briefed to the Office of Homeland Security and the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research**
**Both endorsed results and challenged the OFCM to keep moving forward on the report’s recommendations **

## Objectives

**Refine the requirements for ATD modeling support/plume forecasts and develop a concept of operations to support those requirements**
**Refine, prioritize (if possible), and document the community’s research and development needs**
**Develop a common model evaluation framework that supports our customers’ needs and requirements  **

## Agenda

*Welcoming Remarks/Set the Stage*
**	*****Mr. Samuel P. Williamson, Federal Coordinator***
*Invited Talk:  Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD)/Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) Preparedness Activities*
**	*****Mr. Craig Conklin, Director, Technical Services Division, Office on National Preparedness, FEMA/DHS***

## Agenda

*Panel 1 (8:40): Operational Requirements and the Current State of the Science *
*Moderator****:  CAPT Frank Garcia, Jr., ODUSD (S&T)***
*Panelists:*
***	******Dr. Paula Davidson, NWS Mr. Mark Miller, NOS ***
***	******Mr. Ron Meris, DTRA******	******        Dr. Stephen McGuire, NRC***
***	******Mr. Bill Petersen, EPA       Dr. Walter Chrobak, DOE***
*Coffee Break (10:10-10:30)*

## Agenda

*Invited Talk (10:30):  National Research Council Report: “Tracking and Predicting the Dispersion of Hazardous Agents”*
*Introduction:** ****Dr. Laurie Geller, BASC***
*Speakers: ****General William Odom, USA Ret., ***
***	******	******	******Hudson Institute***
*	**	**       ****Dr. John Wyngaard, Penn State University***

## Agenda

*Panel 2 (10:50):  ATD Research Needs and Priorities*
*Moderator:** ****Dr. Walter Bach, USA/ARO***
*Panelists:*
*	****Dr. Jay Boris, NRL**** **	**    ****Mr. Walter Schalk, ARL******	******     Mr. John Pace, DTRA******	******    Ms. Jocelyn Mitchell, NRC ***
***	******Dr. David Bacon, SAIC   Dr. Zafer Boybeyi, GMU******	***
*Lunch Break (12:15-1:30)****	***

## Agenda

*Panel 3 (1:30): Developing a Common Framework for Model Evaluation*
*Moderator:  ****Dr. Paul Try, OFCM/STC***
*Panelists:*
*	****Dr. Steve Hanna, GMU      Dr. Jim Ellis, LLNL***
***	******Dr. Jeff Weil, CIRES/CU   Dr. Priscilla Glasow, Mitre***
***	******Mr. Bruce Hicks, NOAA/ARL***
*Wrap-up (3:00): ****Mr. Bob Dumont, OFCM***

## Agenda

*Coffee Break (3:10-3:30)*
*Federal Agencies Only (3:30):  Special Session on Default Source Term Selection*
*Moderator****: Mr. Bruce Hicks, NOAA/ARL***
*Adjourn: ****Approximately 5:30****	**	*

## Summary/Next Steps

**Develop an environmental support concept of operations in support of Homeland Security that:**
**Is consistent with the new National Response Plan**
**Will form the basis for the Homeland Security Environmental Support Plan**
**Develop an R&D plan and pursue interagency support, including DHS **
**Complete the development and implementation of a common framework for model evaluation among the Federal agencies****  **

## Environmental Support Plan for Homeland Security

- Federal Capabilities
- for
- Environmental
- Support
- to
- Homeland Security

**NAVY/NOAA**
**TABLETOP EXERCISE**

**INTERAGENCY**
**TABLETOP EXERCISES (SERIES)**

**TRANSITION FROM **
**RESEARCH TO **
**OPERATIONS**

**NATIONAL PLAN**

- Workshops

**DRAFT**

**RESEARCH NEEDS**

**CONOPS**

- JUNE 2003

**RESEARCH NEEDS **
**AND FIELD STUDIES**

**MODEL EVALUATION**

**Notes:**
	This diagram describes how we see this all fitting together:
	The next tabletop exercise will involve the Federal lead and supporting agencies.  The agencies will apply their capabilities.  These capabilities are listed in the Environmental Support Plan (National Plan).  The exercises will be based on the scenarios used in the JAG/SEATD.  
	Initially, in June at GMU we will investigate the research needs. We can start with the list of ATD modeling research needs in the JAG/SEADT report.  We expect to refine this list through the forum process. We will continue this process as an interagency group writes the R&D Plan.
	Also in June we will explore a common framework for model evaluation.  This will be a subject of more intense discussion and investigation during the second forum.
	In the second forum we will continue working on model evaluation and also focus on the CONOPS for the Environmental Support Plan (National Plan). 

## Plan to Develop Research Plan

**January - August 2002**

*The Way Ahead*

**1 day Session at GMU**
**June 2003**

**2 - 3 day Workshop**
**November - December 2003**

**Joint Action Group to develop Research Plan**

## ADMINISTRATIVE REMARKS

**http://www.ofcm.gov/**

**Presentations and special session summary will be available on the OFCM web site shortly after the forum**
**Click on “Special Projects” and navigate to Homeland Security **

*PRESENTATION AVAILABILITY*

***ADMINISTRATIVE REMARKS***

## BACKUP\

- EXTRA