# Presentation: 393164

## CBRFC SH / HFP CallWATER SUPPLYJanuary 21, 2009

## Outline

- CBRFC WS Training Overview (Kevin / Greg)
- Western water page new release (Lisa / Kevin)
- CBRFC WS verification (Lisa / Kevin)
- WS RFC/WFO Coordination (Greg)
- FFG Change (Greg)
- SCH activities update (Kevin)
- Other Discussion

## Objectives

- Dialogue on water supply program – especially products and services
- Responsive to concerns raised Sept SH meeting

## WS Training Summary

- Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations

- Nov 4: Procedures

- Nov 12: Basin Project Reports

- Nov 5: Forecast Tools

**All Material here: **
**http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present2008wst.cgi**

## Basin Focal Points

| Basin | Focal Point | Primary Back-up |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Upper Colorado | Brenda | John |
| Green | Bill | Ed |
| San Juan / Gunnison | Tracy | John |
| Great | Brent | Greg |
| Lower Colorado | Greg | Bill |

## Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)

**Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)**

## Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)

**Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)**

** ****Forecast Development**

## Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)

**Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)**

** ****Product Development**

## Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)

**Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)**

** ****Product / Information Dissemination**

## Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)

**Water Supply Procedural Breakdown (First of Month)**

** ****Other**

## Water Supply Products / Guidance / Dissemination

**Monthly Products:**

**Weekly Products:**

**Intermittent (As needed) Products:**

**Online publications**
**Extended-Range Streamflow Prediction Product (ESP) - Supply**
**Extended-Range Streamflow Guidance (ESG) – Peaks / Flood**
**Online peak flow publication**
**Westwide files to NRCS**
**Files in support of Western Water Supply page**

**Reservoir management forecasts – (ESP or ESG)**
**Online peak flow publication updates**

**On the fly updates to any of the above forecasts**
**Special, customer specific, reservoir management / peak flow forecasts (ESP or ESG)**
**Nationally scheduled ESG dissemination dates (required to support WFO)**
**Email communicated forecasts / updates**

**Bi-Monthly Products (mid-month):**

**Extended-Range Streamflow Prediction Products (ESP) - Supply**

**Water Supply Products / Guidance / Dissemination**

## Basic Forecast Methods

***Basic Forecast Methods***

**May 1 snowpack % avg**

**Apr-Jul streamflow % avg**

**S Fork Rio Grande, Colo**

**Snowpack**

**Soil water**

**Snow**

**Rainfall**

**Runoff**

**Heat**

**Simulation modeling**

**Credit: Tom Pagano**

## ESP Technique

**forecasts with probabilistic values**

**Multiple streamflow scenarios with historic meteorological or forecast weather/climatic data **

***Time***

***Flow***

***Saved model states reflect current conditions***

**Possible scenarios**

**©****The**** ****COMET Program**

**Notes:**
So how does the ESP technique work? You begin by having the hydrologic model save the model states at a particular time. By comparing the model results to observed conditions, the model states can be adjusted to reflect the current conditions. Once saved, a model state acts as a starting point for future simulations. Since observed precipitation and temperature data haven’t happened yet, multiple scenarios using historic or forecast data can be used as input to the model. From each set of inputs, a possible streamflow hydrograph can be generated. Taken together, an ensemble of possible hydrographs are produced.
Once several scenario hydrographs are calculated, the results can be used to generate probabilistic streamflow values.

## Two Possible Areas to Add Value...

***Flow***

**Possible scenarios**

**©****The**** ****COMET Program**

**Current Model States**
**Future Forcing**

**Notes:**
So how does the ESP technique work? You begin by having the hydrologic model save the model states at a particular time. By comparing the model results to observed conditions, the model states can be adjusted to reflect the current conditions. Once saved, a model state acts as a starting point for future simulations. Since observed precipitation and temperature data haven’t happened yet, multiple scenarios using historic or forecast data can be used as input to the model. From each set of inputs, a possible streamflow hydrograph can be generated. Taken together, an ensemble of possible hydrographs are produced.
Once several scenario hydrographs are calculated, the results can be used to generate probabilistic streamflow values.

## Principal Components Analysis

**Credit: Dave Garen**

## New Paradigms?

## New Paradigms?

## Western Water Supply Page New Stuff

## NWS Western Water Supply /Water Resources Outlook

**2008 version:**

**2009 version:**
**www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater**

## Slide 21

## RFC Ensemble Forecasts

**-Initially offered at NWS water supply points**
**-Display probability function for monthly volumes**
**-Tools included to query historical data and forecast ensemble members**
**-User customizable plots**

**Notes:**
Ensemble services are a newer component to the Western Water Supply product suite.  Our intent is to provide users with access to the ensemble forecasts that are being generated by the RFC’s.  

Describe goals.

## Slide 23

## Slide 24

**Notes:**
Data visualization will allow a user to visually see how well forecasts have performed in the past.  Although there is no statistics associated with the plot, it is a quick way to view historical trends associated with a specific site.

Error plots will allow users to view simple error statistics over specified date ranges.

Skill plots are generated with respect to climatology.  In the near future, we would like to add user defined thresholds.  Certain users may have thresholds that hold more meaning for them, so if they were able to view skill compared to some threshold that more meaningful to them, the confidence in the forecast becomes more significant.

Categorical statistics stem from the National Weather Services more traditional method of verification.  Once again, they are currently tied to climatology, but would like to expand to user definable thresholds to make them more meaningful to the end user.

## Link with Water Resources Outlook

- Link to OHRFC, SERFC developed water resources outlook

## Forecast Verification

**Forecast Verification**

**Easy to understand**
** ****Meaningful**
** ****Accessible from forecasts**
** ****Dynamically generated plots from database**

**Data Visualization**

** ****Variety**

## Forecast Verification

**Forecast Verification**

**MAE, RMSE, etc**
**Relative to historical average**
**Conditional on**
**	****Lead time, year**

**Error**

**Skill**

**Skill relative to Climatology**
**Conditional**

## Forecast Verification

**Forecast Verification**

**Cateorical**

**Traditional (NWS) verification – POD/FAR**
**Category definitions tied to climatology (e.g. ****	****mean flow, terciles, etc.) or user ****	****definable**

## Years

**Years**
** **List created based on Sources selected during the selected period
-  100% of selected available
-  ESP based on what is available in top 5 selected

## Verification Navigation Bar

**Verification Navigation Bar**

**Statistic**
-  Data Overview
-  Error & Skill Score
-  Categorical
-  Forecast Uncertainty
-  Climate Variability

**Sources**
-  Default Selected
-  Additional ESP

**Time Scale**
-  Forecast Period
-  Available Years
-  Month (Table)

## Graph Options

**Graph Options**
-  Available only some
-   statistics
-  Options different for
-   each statistic

**Threshold**
-  Manipulates plots
-  Blank or “mean”
-   returns to original
-   mean

**Source Info**
-  Default 100%
-  ESP: Jan-Apr 67%

**Verification Navigation Bar**

## Verification Results

- Great Basin – Brent
- Green – Bill
- San Juan – Tracy
- Lower Colorado – Greg (date TBD)
- Upper Colorado - ?

## ESP re-forecasts regularly perform better than the other data sources with less error. These forecasts also introduce substantially more skill to the forecast. 

- ESP re-forecasts regularly perform better than the other data sources with less error. These forecasts also introduce substantially more skill to the forecast.

## ESP re-forecasts indicate that the distribution does not influence skill with the exception of loglogistic. When compared to other sources, the ESP re-forecasts perform better during all lead times.

## Forecasts have improved in recent years. Previously the 10% exceedance had been forecast too low causing more than expected year to fall above the 10% exceedance value.

**1992-2000**

**2001-2008**

## Low flows are detected better than high flows during the entire lead time period.

## RFC / WFO Water Supply Information Exchange 

**Information Exchange Issues:**
**	****Preliminary forecast exchange (email) - is this working?**
**	****Additional information needed / other formats or graphics ?**
**	****Webinar in Feb – Another means for understanding / interacting with forecast thought.**
**	****Water supply users lists / contacts – who uses the forecasts?**
**	****Peak flow forecasts starting in March**
** ****Specific forecasts found in our online publication (updated as needed)**
** ****Best way we can provide consistent information.**
** ****Request peaks from the RFC – our procedures help identify risk.**
** ****Consistent message is important (reservoir operations etc.)**
** ****Further follow up – provide a briefing in March / April (& as needed)**

## The lower zone portion of the model helps to determine the volume of runoff during the spring and summer months by indicating a basin's antecedent condition prior to melt. 

- The lower zone portion of the model helps to determine the volume of runoff during the spring and summer months by indicating a basin's antecedent condition prior to melt.

- Described in text based water supply narratives – more informative information in the graphics?

**http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/sac_sm/sac_sm.cgi**

## CBRFC Water Supply Products / Guidance / Dissemination

- Monthly Products:

- Weekly Products:

- Intermittent (As needed) Products:

- Online publications
- Extended-Range Streamflow Prediction Product (ESP) - Supply
- Extended-Range Streamflow Guidance (ESG) – Peaks / Flood
- Online peak flow publication
- Westwide files to NRCS
- Files in support of Western Water Supply page

- Reservoir management forecasts – (ESP or ESG)
- Online peak flow publication updates

- On the fly updates to any of the above forecasts
- Special, customer specific, reservoir management / peak flow forecasts (ESP or ESG)
- Nationally scheduled ESG dissemination dates (required to support WFO)
- Email communicated forecasts / updates

- Bi-Monthly Products (mid-month):

- Extended-Range Streamflow Prediction Products (ESP) - Supply

**CBRFC Water Supply Products / Guidance / Dissemination**

## 	Residual forecasts issued in May & June for northern basins

**	****Monthly (seasonal water supply) ESP Product (drives ESF product?)**
**	****	****ESF contents vary – is ESP product providing sufficient information?**
**	****	****Consistency between ESP and ESF (forecast info / climate outlooks)**
**	****	****Suggest ESF reference water supply publication web site**
**	****	**
**	****	**
**	****Additional ESP Products (weekly or special forecast)**
**Additional types of forecasts issued under same AWIPS ID (versions)**
**Add WFO SH to email distribution lists?**
**	****Peak Flow ESG Product**
**Website is referenced for specific peak flow forecasts (due to updates)**
**	****Residual forecasts issued in May & June for northern basins**
** ****May (May-July forecast period) & June (June-July forecast period)**
**	****	**

**RFC / WFO Water Supply Information Exchange**

## Products Routinely Issued by Water Supply Focal Points  

**SLCESPSTR:     Upper Colorado Unregulated Reservoir Forecasts ***

- Issued:	     First of month & mid month – year round
- Issued by:	     Upper Colorado Focal Point

**SLCESPCO:      Colorado Water Supply Outlook (covers the UC, SJ, GU, GN)     **

- Issued:	    First of month & mid month – Jan to June
- Issued by:	    Upper Colorado Focal Point

**SLCESPCO:      Reservoir Management Forecast  (Gunnison – San Juan peaks/volumes) *    **

- Issued:	    Weekly, as determined by Customer – March to June
- Issued by:	    Gunnison Basin Focal Point – San Juan Basin Focal Point

**SLCESPAZ:      Reservoir Management Forecast (Lake Mead intervening flow & tributaries) ***

- Issued:	    Twice monthly – year round (outside of Jan-May)
- Issued by:	    Lower Colorado Focal Point

**SLCESPWY:    Wyoming Water Supply Outlook (covers the GN, GB (Bear) )     **

- Issued:	    First of month & mid month – Jan to June
- Issued by:	    Green Basin Focal Point

- * Also disseminated via email distribution list

-  ESP – Water Supply Oriented Products

## Products routinely issued by Water Supply Focal Points  

- * Also disseminated via email distribution list

-  ESG – Peaks / Flood oriented products

- ESG products contain reference to our online peak flow publication starting in March

## FFG Grid Modified by FFPI 

- FFG Grid Modified by FFPI

- 1.0 per 1 hour

- 1.0

- 1.5

- 0.9

- 0.7

- 2.3

- 1.0

- 0.8

- 0.6

- 0.7

- FFPI Grid

- Gridded FFG product for FFMP

- If the mean FFPI value for the entire RFC area is 4 thus all FFPI grid boxes of “4” will get assigned the value for the pertinent time period.  Other values are scaled up or down by a selected range.

- 4

- 4

- 1

- 7

- 7

- 5

- 6

- 8

**Initialize FFG Grid Cell**

- 3

## Start with reasonable average FFG values of 
1 inch in 1 hour
Assign these values to grid cells with the mean FFPI value of 4
Incrementally adjust the FFG values up or down as FFPI varies
Limit the range of FFG values to climatologically reasonable values
Verify results by comparing to archived flash flood events

-  If FFPI = 4:  FFG is	1.00
-  If FFPI = 5:  FFG is	  .90
-  If FFPI = 6:  FFG is	 . 80
-  If FFPI = 7:  FFG is	  .70
-  if FFPI = 8:  FFG is	  .60
-  if FFPI = 9:  FFG is	  .55
-  if FFPI = 3:  FFG is	1.45
-  if FFPI = 2:  FFG is	2.00
-  if FFPI = 1:  FFG is	2.25

**CBRFC FFPI / FFG Relationship:**

- Start with reasonable average FFG values of
**1 inch in 1 hour**
- Assign these values to grid cells with the mean FFPI value of 4
- Incrementally adjust the FFG values up or down as FFPI varies
- Limit the range of FFG values to climatologically reasonable values
- Verify results by comparing to archived flash flood events

## Slide 46

## SCH Activities Update

**Last Couple Months...**
**AGU Presentations on verification and western water page**
**National RFC verification workshop**
**CLIMAS collaboration on distributed model**
**Presentation to Upper Colorado River Commission**
**SCH / WCM course**
**Upcoming...**
**Utah Water Supply – Climate Change Meeting February 24 (with Western Water, Brian M, and others)**
**Water Supply Webinar – Feb 12, 2pm (with Greg S)**
**Border Governors water meeting**
**Customer visits – who should we hit?**

## Other Topics?