# Presentation: 876469

## The Joint Hurricane Testbed and the Visiting Scientist Program at the National Hurricane Center

**The Joint Hurricane Testbed and the Visiting Scientist Program at the National Hurricane Center**

- National Hurricane Center, Miami

- Chris Landsea

**8 December, 2008**

## The Joint Hurricane Testbed

**The Joint Hurricane Testbed**

## JHT – Why is it needed? 
Transition process
What has been accomplished
What projects are being tested currently
What is in process for FY09 (and beyond)
Who is involved with the JHT...

- Transition process
- What has been accomplished
- What projects are being tested currently
- What is in process for FY09 (and beyond)
- Who is involved with the JHT...

**Joint Hurricane Testbed**

## The Forecasters (us):

**The Researchers (them):**

**How to bridge the “valley of death”?**

## JHT Mission Statement

**	****The mission of the Joint Hurricane Test Bed is to ****transfer**** more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, and observational advances of the United States Weather Research, its sponsoring agencies, the academic community and other groups into improved tropical cyclone analysis and prediction at operational centers.**

## JHT Process

**Principal Investigators apply for funding through NOAA**
**A seven member Steering Committee rates all proposals**
**Funded projects are tested during one or two hurricane seasons in conjunction with NHC/ Environmental Modeling Center points of contact**
**At the project’s end, each are evaluated by NHC/EMC staff**
**Implementation of successful projects are then carried out by NHC/EMC staff/PIs**

## What Have We Accomplished - 2001-2008

**Projects supported (rounds 1-4) – ****50**
**Projects ongoing (round 4) -**** 10**
**Projects completed (rounds 1-3) – ****40 **
**Completed projects not accepted – ****5**
**Completed projects pending further evaluation – ****5**
**Projects accepted for implementation – ****30**
**Projects accepted, not fully implemented – ****3.5**
**Projects implemented (NHC/EMC/NCO) – 26.5**

**Dedicated NHC, EMC & JHT staff, and close collaborations between the PIs, points-of-contact and support staff is the key.**

## 2008 Major Activities

- Completion of the third round projects
- Principal Investigators provide final report - Aug 2007
- Final evaluation (NHC/EMC POCs & JHT) – Sep-Dec 2007
- Decision on acceptance for implementation (NHC and EMC Directors) – Jan 2008
- 4 criteria for acceptance
- 12 projects accepted
- 3 projects deferred pending further evaluation
- Implementaton – Jan-Jul 2008
- 11 implemented: 4 by EMC/NCO & 7 by NHC

## Factors Considered in NHC Decisionson Operational Implementation

**Forecast or Analysis Benefit****: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy**
**Efficiency****:  adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs**
**Compatibility****:  IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.**
**Sustainability****:  availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support**

## Implementation (NHC)

**Some relative easy**
**Some very complicated**
**NHC contributes ****≥ ****0.5 FTE on implementation**
**JHT IT facilitator assists in the process**
**NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed **

**Operational Centers are not funded for this task**

## Highlights of 3rd Round Implemented Projects

**Topographic Wind Effects - Miller**

**HWRF – **
**Tuleya, Powell**

**VORTRAC **
**– ****Lee/Bell/Harasti**

**GFDL – **
**Bender**

**OLD GFDL (2)**
**NEW GFDL (4)**
**OLD GFS  (1)**
**NEW GFS (3)**

## Highlights of 3rd Round Implemented Projects

- Highlights of 3rd Round Implemented Projects

**Corrected Consensus Track Forecasts - Goerss**

**Wind Radii Decay Model - Kaplan**

**Inclusion of Dropsonde Moisture into GFS – Aberson/Dunion**

**Revised SHIPS intensity forecast scheme – DeMaria/Knaff**

## Highlights of 3rd Round Implemented Projects

**Wind Radii Decay Model - Kaplan**

**Improvements to ATCF operating system - Sampson**

**Enhancements to Wind Probability Products – Knaff/DeMaria**

**SFMR **
**- Carswell/Black**

## Sea state under Hurricane Isabel

**Breaking waves**

**Sea state under Hurricane Isabel**

## Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer

- Measures nadir brightness temperature at 6 C-band frequencies.
- Geophysical model function relates emissivity to wind speed.  Emissivity depends on surface foam coverage and rain rate.
- Calibrated with GPS dropsonde data.
- First data from C-130s in 2007.

## Slide 16

## Air Force

- 29 Aug
- 0930 UTC

- NOAA
- SFMR
- 29 Aug
- 0930 UTC

**Notes:**
Thus, at landfall, what appeared to be an expanded CAT4 storm from aircraft observations on the left, as in fact a weakened CAT 3 storm based in SFMR surface wind observations, and confirmed by dropsondes and airborne Doppler radar observations on the right.

## C130s Now Equipped with SFMR

- 29 Aug
- 0930 UTC

**C130s Now Equipped with SFMR**
** **
**Thanks to:  HRD, AOC, RSS, NESDIS, ProSensing, CARCAH, AF 53****rd**** Reconn. Squad.**

**Notes:**
Thus, at landfall, what appeared to be an expanded CAT4 storm from aircraft observations on the left, as in fact a weakened CAT 3 storm based in SFMR surface wind observations, and confirmed by dropsondes and airborne Doppler radar observations on the right.

## 2008 Major Activities

- Second year funding renewal for 4th round projects – Mar 2008
- Testing of 4th round projects – Jun-Nov 2008
- Collaboration with PI
- Programming
- Establishing data flow
- Generating output for forecaster use/evaluation

*Cont.*

## 4th Round Project Focus Areas

| Primary Area of Focus | # of Projects |
| --- | --- |
| Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts) | 5 |
| Statistical intensity forecast guidance | 1 |
| Tropical cyclone structure/wind/wave distribution | 2 |
| Track forecast guidance | 1 |
| Enhancements to operational environment | 1 |
| Total | 10 |

_**4th Round Project **__**Focus Areas**_

## JHT Fourth Round (FY07-08) Projects Intensity, structure, and track projects

| Proposal Title | PI | TPC POC |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Improving the Hurricane WRF-Ocean Coupled System for Transition to Operations (model) | Ginis, Isaac (Univ. of Rhode Island)  | Pasch, Cangialosi,
Lozano/Tolman (EMC)  |
| An Improved Wind Probability Estimation Program (algorithm) | Stan Kidder
(CSU), DeMaria,
Mark (NESDIS)
Harr, Pat (NPS)  | Lauer, Brennan,
Knabb (PHFO/CPHC) |
| Hurricane Model Transitions to Operations at NCEP/EMC  (model) | Tuleya, Bob (SAIC)  | Pasch, Fiorino,
Rhome,
Surgi (EMC)  |
| Web-ATCF, user Requirements and Intensity Consensus (application) | Sampson, Charles (NRL)  | Franklin, Sisko  |
| Evaluation and Improvement of Ocean Model Parameterizations for NCEP Operations (algorithm) | Shay, Nick (UM) | Avila, Rhome,
Lozano(EMC)  |

## JHT Fourth Round (FY07-08) Projects Intensity, structure, and track projects

| Proposal Title | PI | TPC POC |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Operational Use of Near-Real Time Surface Directional Wave Spectra Generated from NOAA Scanning Radar Altimeter Range Measurements | Walsh, Edward (NASA/GFSC)  | Beven, Brown, Rhome, Cobb |
| High Wind Drag Coefficient and Sea Surface Roughness in Shallow Water | Powell, Mark  
(1 yr) (AOML) | Franklin, Blake,
Tolman (EMC)  |
| Validation and Processing Tools for the AF Reserves Command 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron WC-130J Multi-Aircraft SFMR Systems | J. Carswell
(RSS, Inc.)
P. Black (AOML)  | Beven, Brown,
Sisko, Christensen  |
| Evaluation and Improvement of Spray-Modified Air-Sea Enthalpy and Momentum Flux Paramete-rizations for operational Hurricane Prediction | J. Bao, 
C. Fairall,
J. Wilczak
(ESRL)  | Pasch, Berg,
Fiorino,
Surgi/Kwon (EMC)  |
| TC Dressing: A Probabilistic Approach to Providing State Dependent, Non-Isotropic Forecast Track Error Guidance | J. Hansen
J. Goerss
(NRL)  | Franklin, Blake,
Sisko |

## 4th Round (FY08) Funding DistributionTotal $1.03M

**Private Companies 23%**

**NOAA 19%**

**State/Private Universities 32%**

**Navy (NPS, NRL) 15%**

**NASA 11%**

## 2008 Major Activities

- Preparing for 5th round projects
- Draft Federal Funding Opportunity - Mar 2008
- Centers priorities
- Evaluation criteria
- Publishing FFO (Jul 2008)
- Review of Pre-applications (Sep 2008)
- PIs submitting full proposals (Oct 2008)
- Review of full proposals (ongoing)

*Cont.*

## Challenges for FY09

**Fifth round funding processes**
**Steering committee review proposals**
**Rank and select proposals for funding**
**Work with Grants Office to fund selected projects**
**Find Point of contacts among NHC forecasters and support staff **
**Work with PIs to setup timelines for their projects**
**Test and evaluation**
**Prepare real-time testing & evaluation for 4****th**** and 5****th**** round projects**
**Manage 4****th**** & 5****th**** round projects**
**Progress reports**
**Final reports for 4****th**** round projects**
**POC feedback**
**JHT final review/reports**
**Implementation of newly accepted 4th projects (NHC) (FY10)**

## What does it take to support the JHT?

**JHT Staff:  **
**Jiann-Gwo Jiing (JHT Director)**
**Jose Salazar (JHT IT specialist)**
**Shirley Murillo (JHT Admin. Asst.)**
**Chris Landsea (JHT Admin. Asst.)**
**JHT Steering Committee:**
**Ed Rappaport (NHC – Co-chair)**
**John Gamache (Hurricane Research Division – Co-chari)**
**Jeff Hawkins (Naval Research Laboratory)**
**Naomi Surgi (Environmental Modeling Center)**
**Ed Fukada (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)**
**Hugh Willoughby (Florida International U)**
**Liz Ritchie (U Arizona)**
**JHT principal investigators and other funded participants**
**John Gaynor (US Weather Research Program) **
**NHC and EMC forecasters and technical points of contacts**
**NHC/Technical Support  Branch IT staff**

## The Visiting Scientist Program

**The Visiting Scientist Program**

## 2007 Hurricane Research Division “Shadowing” 
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program & NCEP’s Strategic Plan
NHC Visiting Scientist Guidelines
2008 VSP Participants
2008 VSP Presentations
Visiting Scientist Feedback
Hurricane Specialists Feedback
Possible Changes for 2009

- Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program & NCEP’s Strategic Plan
- NHC Visiting Scientist Guidelines
- 2008 VSP Participants
- 2008 VSP Presentations
- Visiting Scientist Feedback
- Hurricane Specialists Feedback
- Possible Changes for 2009

**NHC Visiting Scientist Program**

## In 2007, seven HRD researchers “shadowed” the Hurricane Specialists during swing shifts 
Goals were to:  1) facilitate better understanding by HRD researchers of the NHC hurricane forecasting process including the tools and techniques used by the Hurricane Specialists; 2) open additional dialog between NHC-HRD that could lead to improvements in NHC’s analysis and prediction methodologies
HRD participants unanimously thought the program to be extremely beneficial
NHC Hurricane Specialists feedback was primarily favorable with several comments for improvements

- Goals were to:  1) facilitate better understanding by HRD researchers of the NHC hurricane forecasting process including the tools and techniques used by the Hurricane Specialists; 2) open additional dialog between NHC-HRD that could lead to improvements in NHC’s analysis and prediction methodologies
- HRD participants unanimously thought the program to be extremely beneficial
- NHC Hurricane Specialists feedback was primarily favorable with several comments for improvements

**2007 HRD Shadowing Program**

## Spring of 2008, HFIP plan developed which included: “to support research and technology development and training activities for external community at NOAA operational facilities (e.g., visiting scientists, Post-Docs, graduate students, professors)
Also Spring of 2008, NCEP Strategic Plan included:  “expand the visiting scientist program at NCEP to leverage from the external community” 

- Also Spring of 2008, NCEP Strategic Plan included:  “expand the **visiting scientist program **at NCEP to leverage from the external community”

**Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project & NCEP Strategic Plan**

## To facilitate better understanding by researchers/outside forecasters of the NHC hurricane forecasting process including the tools and techniques utilized by the Hurricane Specialists;

To open additional dialog between NHC and the research/outside forecast community that could lead to improvements in our analysis predictions methodologies

- To open additional dialog between NHC and the research/outside forecast community that could lead to improvements in our analysis predictions methodologies

**Goals for the NHC Visiting Scientist Program**

## Program restricted to scientists that have interest/expertise in day-to-day hurricane forecasting operations
VS shadows the Hurricane Specialists during the swing shift 

- VS shadows the Hurricane Specialists during the swing shift

**2008 Guidelines for Visiting Scientist Program**

- 7-7:30pm:  Digest new model guidance
- 7:30-8pm:  Prepare Tropical Weather Outlooks (and graphics)
- 8-9pm:  Analyze the tropical cyclone (position, intensity, size, structure)
- 8:30pm:  Receive Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch and Satellite Analysis Branch Dvorak analyses
- 9pm:  Initialize guidance
- 9-10pm:  Generate track, intensity, size, and structure forecasts
- 10pm:  Conference call (for Atlantic tropical cyclones)
- 10-11pm:  Refine analyses and forecasts; write Public Advisory and Discussion
- 11pm:  Release Advisory package and produce graphics

## Program restricted to scientists that have interest/expertise in day-to-day hurricane forecasting operations
VS shadows the Hurricane Specialists during the swing shift from 7-11pm
11 VS participated with representatives from WFOs, government labs, academia, and other forecasting centers
Each VS would participate for one to five days
Scheduled developed for participants from July to October peak of the season 
If a major hurricane threatened the US, the shadowing would be postponed/canceled 
If there were no active tropical cyclones, the shadowing could be postponed
VS would not be performing any operational duties

- VS shadows the Hurricane Specialists during the swing shift from 7-11pm
- 11 VS participated with representatives from WFOs, government labs, academia, and other forecasting centers
- Each VS would participate for one to five days
- Scheduled developed for participants from July to October peak of the season
- If a major hurricane threatened the US, the shadowing would be postponed/canceled
- If there were no active tropical cyclones, the shadowing could be postponed
- VS would not be performing any operational duties

**2008 Guidelines for Visiting Scientist Program**

## VS encouraged to bring laptop to connect to wireless internet connection in event of significant down time
VS offered to spend time with our Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch
VS given opportunity to give a seminar on topic of their choosing
No funding was available to assist scientists for their visit

- VS offered to spend time with our Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch
- VS given opportunity to give a seminar on topic of their choosing
**No funding was available to assist scientists for their visit**

**2008 Guidelines for Visiting Scientist Program**

## 30 researchers/outside forecasters asked to participate
Jamie Rhome (then Hurricane Specialist), Robbie Berg (then TAFB Forecaster), and I selected the 11 participants to maximize the variety of groups represented:  
Hurricane Research Division (Shirley Murillo, Sim Aberson)
Naval Research Laboratory (Jim Hansen)
University professor (Bob Houze – U Washington)
University grad student (Kevin Talgo – NCSU, Jon Moskaitis – MIT)
Weather Forecast Offices (Andy Devanas – Key West, Robert Bright – Charleston, Erik Pytlak – Tucson)
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (Andrea Schumacher)
Canadian Hurricane Center (Chris Fogarty)

- Jamie Rhome (then Hurricane Specialist), Robbie Berg (then TAFB Forecaster), and I selected the 11 participants to maximize the variety of groups represented:
- Hurricane Research Division (Shirley Murillo, Sim Aberson)
- Naval Research Laboratory (Jim Hansen)
- University professor (Bob Houze – U Washington)
- University grad student (Kevin Talgo – NCSU, Jon Moskaitis – MIT)
- Weather Forecast Offices (Andy Devanas – Key West, Robert Bright – Charleston, Erik Pytlak – Tucson)
- Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (Andrea Schumacher)
- Canadian Hurricane Center (Chris Fogarty)

**2008 Participants**

## Bob Houze - "Convective Contribution to the Genesis of 	Hurricane Ophelia (2005)"
Jim Hansen - "Advances in tropical cyclone track 	uncertainty guidance:   Understanding why uncertainty 	looks the way it does"
Jon Moskaitis - "Verification of deterministic TC intensity 	forecasts:  Beyond summary accuracy measures"
Andrea Schumacher – "Hurricane research in the Rockies:  	An overview of recent research to operations activities 	at CIRA"
Erik Pytlak - "Northeast Pacific Tropical Cyclones in the 	Southwest US - Climatology, Impacts and Forecasting” 
Chris Fogarty - "Canadian Hurricane Centre - Ongoing 	Operational and Development Activities"

- Jim Hansen - "Advances in tropical cyclone track 	uncertainty guidance:   Understanding why uncertainty 	looks the way it does"
- Jon Moskaitis - "Verification of deterministic TC intensity 	forecasts:  Beyond summary accuracy measures"
- Andrea Schumacher – "Hurricane research in the Rockies:  	An overview of recent research to operations activities 	at CIRA"
- Erik Pytlak - "Northeast Pacific Tropical Cyclones in the 	Southwest US - Climatology, Impacts and Forecasting”
- Chris Fogarty - "Canadian Hurricane Centre - Ongoing 	Operational and Development Activities"

**2008 Presentations**

## “The NHC Visiting Scientist Program was a fantastic experience.  In my view there is no way a research scientist can understand the operational problem unless he/she spends time in an operational environment observing and asking questions.  The NHC employees were all very generous with their time and insights and lessons learned during the trip have already modified my research agenda.”

“As a graduate student in the field of tropical meteorology, it was an excellent learning experience for myself and also of great benefit to the NC State meteorology department...It was fascinating to witness first-hand the challenges and pressure encountered by forecasters when a tropical cyclone is bearing down on the U.S. coast. “

“I learned a lot more about NHC and TAFB products and services, the research NHC and universities are conducting on ET transitions, and the delicate workload balance NHC forecasters have to juggle when systems are affecting both the Atlantic and East Pacific.”

- “As a graduate student in the field of tropical meteorology, it was an excellent learning experience for myself and also of great benefit to the NC State meteorology department...It was fascinating to witness first-hand the challenges and pressure encountered by forecasters when a tropical cyclone is bearing down on the U.S. coast. “
- “I learned a lot more about NHC and TAFB products and services, the research NHC and universities are conducting on ET transitions, and the delicate workload balance NHC forecasters have to juggle when systems are affecting both the Atlantic and East Pacific.”

**Visiting Scientist Comments**

## “I'd say the NHC Visiting Scientist Program has been hugely successful. I have enjoyed interacting with each of the guests,and I have found them to be very attentive and enthusiastic aboutNHC operations and programs. Any exchange of information is good,especially when it comes to our users acquiring a better understanding of our operations and products.”

“Overall, the interactions were positive and I believe that the individuals gained knowledge of the forecast process during the visit...I think we should try to focus much of this program on WFO personnel as this would certainly improve coordinate between NHC and WFOs and could assist in the development and implementation of the proposed collaborative NWS TC watches and warnings.”

- “Overall, the interactions were positive and I believe that the individuals gained knowledge of the forecast process during the visit...I think we should try to focus much of this program on WFO personnel as this would certainly improve coordinate between NHC and WFOs and could assist in the development and implementation of the proposed collaborative NWS TC watches and warnings.”

**Hurricane Specialists Comments**

## More formal interaction designed specifically with TAFB
Make available opportunity to visit WFO Miami/ HRD/UMiami/FIU in situations with no tropical cyclone activity
Provide funding from NCEP SOO pot-o-money for WFO participation
Include participation from other national centers and River Forecast Centers
Provide more NHC background information for VS participants
Guarantee that there will be an active tropical cyclone during the VS stay...

- Make available opportunity to visit WFO Miami/ HRD/UMiami/FIU in situations with no tropical cyclone activity
- Provide funding from NCEP SOO pot-o-money for WFO participation
- Include participation from other national centers and River Forecast Centers
- Provide more NHC background information for VS participants
- Guarantee that there will be an active tropical cyclone during the VS stay...

**Possible Changes for 2009**

## Visiting Scientist ProgramScenes from NHC, TAFB, Miami WFO and AOML/HRD

## The Joint Hurricane Testbed and the Visiting Scientist Program at the National Hurricane Center

**The Joint Hurricane Testbed and the Visiting Scientist Program at the National Hurricane Center**

- National Hurricane Center, Miami

- Chris Landsea

**8 December, 2008**

## Logistics
Dedicated physical space in operations, offices

Personnel
NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people
0.5 FTE reimbursed by USWRP for quarter-time JHT Director and one quarter-time JHT administrative assistant 
NHC contributing 1.0 FTE, including TPC member on JHT Steering Committee, forecasters, and technical support staff
Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC)
Programming, system administration, and network support
Administrative support

Computing Resources
Network connectivity
Operational data flow

**Dedicated physical space in operations, offices**
***Personnel***
**NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people**
**0.5 FTE reimbursed by USWRP for quarter-time JHT Director and one quarter-time JHT administrative assistant **
**NHC contributing 1.0 FTE, including TPC member on JHT Steering Committee, forecasters, and technical support staff**
**Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC)**
**Programming, system administration, and network support**
**Administrative support**
***Computing Resources***
**Network connectivity**
**Operational data flow**

**NHC Contributions to JHT**

## JHT Infrastructure

***Personnel ***
**Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE)**
**7-member Steering Committee**
**Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic community**
**TPC member serves as co-Chair**
**Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) **
**One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) **
***Computing Resources***
**Server and workstations**
**Software**

## JHT 2nd Round Implemented Projects

- Track Uncertainty Estimates  (Goerss)

- GFDL/URI Hurricane Model upgrades (Bender; Ginis)

**JHT 2nd Round Implemented Projects**

- SHIPS & Wind Probabilities (DeMaria/Knaff)

- Rain-CLIPER & rainfall verification (Rogers)

- Inner Core SSTs (Cione)

- Doppler Winds (Gamache)

## JHT 2nd Round Projects - Implemented

- Hurricane-Weather Research Forecasting Model (Tuleya)

- Targeted Observations (Majumdar/Aberson)

**JHT 2nd Round Projects - Implemented**

- Ocean Modeling (Jacob)

- HYCOM Ocean Model

- Rapid Intensification Index (Kaplan)

- 5 day Climatology-Persistence Model (Aberson)

-                 Naomi Surgi

-    NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center

**WHERE  AMERICA’S  CLIMATE  AND  WEATHER  SERVICES  BEGIN**

** **
** ****HWRF **

**                         ****HWRF Program Leader **

- Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model

**Notes:**
Some of the season highlights include
 12 tropical storms of which 8 became hurricanes
 5 major hurricanes, all Category 4...an all-time record
 5 year total of 41 hurricanes...an all-time record
 3 hurricanes (Bret, Floyd, Irene) and 2 tropical storms (Dennis and Harvey) made landfall in the mainland U.S.

## HWRF TEAM

- Qingfu Liu,  Veejay T,  Y. Kwon,          R. Tuleya, B. O’Connor  (EMC), I. Ginis, Biju (URI), M. Powell (NOAA/HRD),    C. Liou (NRL), J. Bao, C. Fairall, S. Michelson (NOAA/ESRL)

## THE  HWRF SYSTEM  

_**THE  HWRF SYSTEM  **_
_**2007**_
**  ****Movable, 2- way nested grid   (9km; 27km/42L;  ~75X75)**
**  ****Advanced Physics (atm/ocean BL; tested in GFDL – the “benchmark”)   **
**  ****Advanced vortex initialization - uses GSI 3D var       (advancement over GFDL bogus) – assimilation of doppler radar data to run in development parallel**
**  ****POM  ocean (w/loop current init – same as GFDL) **
**WAVEWATCH III – static multi-grid nesting**

## ATL Track Error ‘04, ‘05, ‘06 Avg. 

- Some degradation at 120hr - mostly from ’04

## KATRINA (2005) TRACKS

**KATRINA (2005) TRACKS**

**HWRF**

**GFDL**

## Intensity Error ’04, ’05, ‘06 Avg. 

## ‘08 Implementation

**Begin to assimilate P-3 radar obs in 3Dvar to initialize hurricane core**
**Couple to HYCOM  (including data assimilation for ocean obs, e.g. AXBT’s) **
**Upgrade surface fluxes w/sea spray parameterization (collaboration with URI and Boulder lab)**
**Couple to ocean in EPAC **
**Couple to WAVEWATCH III (important for improved sfc. fluxes).   Also, WAVEWATCH advancement in movable, multi grid around hurricane    **

##    Atm/ocean boundary layer:  wave drag,   enthalpy fluxes  (sea spray)      

**    ****08                  09**                **10                 11                     12**

**Radial velocities  Advance reflectivity       **
**  **

**Mesoscale Data Assimilation for Hurricane Core**

**  **

** **

**  **

**          ****Advancing  HURRICANE WRF System**

**Atm. Model  physics and resolution upgrades (continuous)**** **

**   ****Atm/ocean boundary layer:  wave drag,   enthalpy fluxes  (sea spray)      **
**     ****Microphysics, radiation  **

**        ****Incr. Res:  4-6km.?****    **

** **

**              ****Land surface Coupling **
**Waves****:   multi-grid/surf-zone physics**
**Ocean****:****  4km.    - continuous upgrades in  Ocean Data Assimilation **

**4DVAR**

- .

**HWRF Ensembles?**

## New Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Products from NHC

**Richard Knabb, Chris Landsea, Edward Rappaport, Michelle Mainelli, Chris Lauer, Alison Krautkramer, James Franklin, and Jamie Rhome**
**National Hurricane Center**
**Scott Kiser and Tim Schott - NWS Headquarters**
**Mark DeMaria – NESDIS and John Knaff - CIRA**

## JHT Website

**JHT Website**

## 5-day cumulative probabilities of hurricane-force winds

- Hurricane Charley (2004) Advisory #14, 5 pm August 12

- Note that chances of hurricane-force winds at Tampa Bay and Port Charlotte are both around 30%!

## 	Answers to two main questions:
	What are the chances this event is going to 	happen to me?
Do I need to prepare?
Cumulative period probabilities
New graphics and text products from NHC and CPHC
When is the event most likely to start at my location?
How much time do I have left to prepare?
Individual period probabilities
New text products from NHC and CPHC

**	****What are the chances this event is going to ****	****happen to me?**
*Do I need to prepare?*
**Cumulative** period probabilities
- New graphics and text products from NHC and CPHC
**When is the event most likely to start at my location?**
*How much time do I have left to prepare?*
**Individual **period probabilities
- New text products from NHC and CPHC

**What do the new probability products tell you?**

**NHC Website Probability Graphics**

**34 kt example**

**NHC Website Probability Graphics**

**34 kt example**

**NHC Website Probability Graphics**

**34 kt example**
**TS Alberto (2006)**

**Small probabilities****of an extreme event still warrant taking precautions**