# Presentation: 711474

## Effects of Unmet Need on College-Qualified High School Graduates 

- Dr. Brian Fitzgerald, Staff Director
- Advisory Committee
- on Student Financial Assistance
- March 7, 2002
- Brownsville, TX

## Source: Access Denied, 2001

## Source: Access Denied, 2001

**0%**

**10%**

**20%**

**30%**

**40%**

**50%**

**60%**

**70%**

**1972-73**

**1975-76**

**1978-79**

**1981-82**

**1984-85**

**1987-88**

**1990-91**

**1993-94**

**1996-97**

**1999-00***

**Low Income **

**Middle Income **

**High Income **

**AVERAGE COST OF ATTENDANCE AT A FOUR-YEAR PUBLIC COLLEGE **
**AS A SHARE OF FAMILY INCOME**

** **

**(****CONSTANT DOLLARS)**

**$2,884**

**$2,543**

**$3,252**

**$3,347**

**$4,872**

**$5,034**

** ****$3,240* **

** ****$3,392* **

** ****$4,238* **

** ****$2,866* **

** ****$2,472* **

** ****$2,522* **

**$5,044**

**$4,944**

**$5,732**

**$6,231**

**$7,415**

**$8,286**

**1975-76**

**1980-81**

**1985-86**

**1990-91**

**1995-96**

**2000-01**

**Pell Grant Maximum**

**Expenses Remaining **

**Average Cost of Attendance**

**TOTAL EXPENSES REMAINING AFTER THE PELL GRANT **
**MAXIMUM AWARD AT A FOUR-YEAR PUBLIC COLLEGE**

** **

## AVERAGE ANNUAL UNMET NEED 

**$3,200**

**$3,800**

**$6,200**

**$1,650**

**$2,250**

**$4,700**

**$100**

**$400**

**$3,000**

**Public Two-Year College**

**Public Four-Year College**

**Private Four-Year College**

**Low-Income**

**Middle Income**

**High Income**

**AVERAGE ANNUAL UNMET NEED **
**BY FAMILY INCOME AND TYPE OF COLLEGE**

** **

** **

## Source: Access Denied, 2001

**92%**

**20%**

**99%**

**92%**

**87%**

**93%**

**59%**

**69%**

**94%**

**70%**

**53%**

**64%**

**Expect in 8th**

**Grade to Finish**

**College**

**Concerned about**

**Finances**

**Plan to Attend**

**Postsecondary**

**Education**

**Plan to Attend**

**Immediately**

**After High**

**School**

**Enroll**

**Immediately**

**After High**

**School**

**Enroll Within**

**Two Years**

**Low Unmet Need**

**High Unmet Need**

**ACCESS PIPELINE FOR ALL HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES **

** **

** **

**95%**

**88%**

**8%**

**4%**

**70%**

**63%**

**20%**

**20%**

**20%**

**16%**

**69%**

**79%**

**Expect in 8th Grade**

**to Finish College**

**Parents Very**

**Concerned About**

**Costs and Aid**

**Students Very**

**Concerned About**

**Costs and Aid**

**Plan in 12th Grade**

**to Attend a Four-**

**Year College**

**Plan in 12th Grade**

**to Attend a Two-**

**Year College**

**Plan Not to Attend**

**Immediately or Not**

**Sure**

**ACCESS PIPELINE COLLEGE-QUALIFIED HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES**
**THE PRE-ENROLLMENT EFFECTS OF UNMET NEED****          **

** **

** **

** **

**Low Unmet Need**

**High Unmet Need**

**83%**

**12%**

**1%**

**4%**

**52%**

**21%**

**4%**

**22%**

**Enroll in a Four-Year**

**College**

**Enroll in a **

**Two-Year**

**College**

**Enroll in "Other" Less**

**Than **

**Four-Year College**

**Not Enroll in Any**

**College**

**Low Unmet Need**

**High Unmet Need**

**ACCESS PIPELINE FOR COLLEGE-QUALIFIED **
**HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES **

** **

** **

**EFFECTS OF UNMET NEED ON ENROLLMENT WITHIN TW0 YEARS**

** **

** **

**95%**

**88%**

**91%**

**83%**

**48%**

**70%**

**63%**

**62%**

**52%**

**12%**

**Expect in 8th **
**Grade to Finish**
**College**

**Plan in 12th Grade**

**to Attend a Four-**

**Year College**

**Take Entrance**

**Exam and Apply**

**Enroll in a Four-**

**Year College**

**Complete a**

**Bachelor's Degree**

**Low Unmet Need**

**High Unmet Need**

**ACCESS PIPELINE FOR COLLEGE-QUALIFIED **
**HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES**

** **

** **

**OVERALL EFFECTS OF UNMET NEED THROUGH COMPLETION**

## COHORT IMPACT SIMULATION

** **

**EFFECTS OF UNMET NEED ON COLLEGE-QUALIFIED LOW-INCOME HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES**

**124,000**

**154,000**

**158,000**

**199,000**

**91,000**

**138,000**

**170,000**

**175,000**

**220,000**

**100,000**

**Not Expect in 8th**

**Grade to Finish**

**College**

**Not Plan in 12th**

**Grade to Attend a**

**Four-Year College**

**Not Take Entrance**

**Exam and Apply**

**Fail to Enroll in a**

**Four-Year College**

**     ****Fail to Enroll in**

**Any College**

**Pipeline in Year 2000 (415,000 College-Qualified)**

**Pipeline in Year 2010 (460,000 College-Qualified)**

**COHORT IMPACT SIMULATION**

**(in millions)**** **

**0.2**

**0.4**

**0.6**

**0.8**

**1.0**

**1.2**

**1.4**

**1.6**

**1.9**

**2.1**

**2.3**

**0.2**

**0.3**

**0.4**

**0.5**

**0.6**

**0.7**

**0.8**

**0.9**

**1.0**

**1.1**

**0.1**

**2000**

**2001**

**2002**

**2003**

**2004**

**2005**

**2006**

**2007**

**2008**

**2009**

**2010**

**Did Not Attend a Four-Year College Within**

**Two Years of High School Graduation**

**Did Not Attend Any College Within Two**

**Years of High School Graduation**

** **

** **

**CUMULATIVE IMPACT OVER TIME OF UNMET NEED ON THE ENROLLMENT OF COLLEGE-QUALIFIED **

## Advisory Committee on Student Financial Assistance

- http://www.ed.gov/ACSFA/