# Presentation: 302178

## Kentucky GAP: 

**Geographic Area and Minimum Habitat Thresholds in Relation to Accuracy Assessment of Predicted Vertebrate Distributions**

- Terry L. Derting
- Adam Smith
- Howard Whiteman

## Kentucky GAP: 

**Geographic Area**** and Minimum Habitat Thresholds in Relation to Accuracy Assessment of Predicted Vertebrate Distributions**

- Terry L. Derting
- Adam Smith
- Howard Whiteman

## Kentucky GAP: 

**Geographic Area and ****Minimum Habitat Thresholds**** in Relation to Accuracy Assessment of Predicted Vertebrate Distributions**

- Terry L. Derting
- Adam Smith
- Howard Whiteman

## Species Modeled

**Amphibians - 52**
**Mammals - 63**
**Breeding Birds - 152**
**Wintering Birds  - 111**

**Species Modeled**

## Input Layers for Models

**Input Layers for Models**

**KY-GAP Land Cover Data**

**Digital Elevation Model**

**NWI Data**

## Species Distribution Maps

- Tiger salamander

- Gray fox

- Marginal
- Potentially suitable
- Potentially suitable-Aquatic
- No Data

## Modeling of Edge Habitat

**Modeling of Edge Habitat**

## Accuracy Analysis

- Methods of Evaluation:

- Validation Area Assessment (803 – 262,415 ha)

## Omission error: species not predicted to occur in area where it had been recorded

_**Commission error**_: species **predicted** to occur in area where it had **not been recorded**
_**Match**_: species occurrence was **predicted as recorded**

## Methods of Evaluation:

- Physiographic Province Assessment (204,400 – 2,674,000 ha)

**Mississippi Alluvial Basin**
**Mississippi Embayment**
**Shawnee Hills**
**Mississippian Plateaus**
**Knobs**
**Bluegrass**
**Appalachian Plateaus**
**Cumberland Mountains**

- Species List

## Methods of Evaluation:

-  Physiographic Province Assessment
-  Statewide Assessment

| DATABASES |  |
| --- | --- |
| KY Fish and Wildlife Information Service | KY State Nature Preserve Commission |
| KY Woodrat Locator | Ferner Pine Mountain |
| KY Herps | Coal Mine Matches |
|  | Small Mammals |

## CHARACTERISTICS OF LOCATIONAL RECORDS

| Taxonomic Group | % Species Represented |
| --- | --- |
| Amphibians | 86.5% |
| Reptiles | 69.2% |
| Mammals | 95.2% |
| Birds (breeding) | 86.8% |
| Birds (wintering) | 81.1% |

## CHARACTERISTICS OF LOCATIONAL RECORDS

| Taxonomic Group | % Species Represented |
| --- | --- |
| Amphibians | 86.5% |
| Reptiles | 69.2% |
| Mammals | 95.2% |
| Birds (breeding) | 86.8% |
| Birds (wintering) | 81.1% |

## Predicted distributions compared with species records from database

## Results 

- Assessment of Validation Areas

- 80%

## Results

-  Assessment of Physiographic Provinces

- 80%

## Results

**Results**
- Statewide Accuracy Assessment

- 80%

## Results

- 0

- 50

- 100

**Omission**

** ****Match**

- Percent

- 80%

**Results**
- Statewide Accuracy Assessment        (  5 records/species)

## Error rates:   Aquatic vs. Terrestrial ( 10 records/species)

*P*=0.014*

*P*<0.0001**

- n=3

- n=8

- n=16

- n=23

- Error rates:   Aquatic vs. Terrestrial ( 10 records/species)

- *t-test, **Mann-Whitney U test

## Lessons Learned Using Three Levels of Geographic Area for Accuracy Assessment

- Use of species lists from very large geographic areas (e.g., provinces) was associated with an exaggerated degree of accuracy.

- Comparison of accuracy values using multiple validation areas and statewide locational records facilitates identification of model strengths and weaknesses.

## Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons

**Mammoth Cave National Park**

## Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons

*Vulpes vulpes*

**1%**

****** ****habitat ******** 1% total area**

- 1% Threshold

## Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons

*Vulpes vulpes*

****** ****habitat ******** 10%**

- 10% Threshold

## Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons

*Vulpes vulpes*

- 25% Threshold

## To what extent do agreement rates decrease as the minimum habitat threshold is increased?

## Minimum Habitat Thresholds for All Groups

## a*

- b

- c

- c

- a

- a

- b

- b

- a

- b

- b

- b

- a

- b

- c

- d

- *ANOVA, *P* < 0.05

- Amphibians

- Reptiles

- Mammals

- Breeding Birds

## Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons

*Pipistrellus subflavus*

## Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons

*Pipistrellus subflavus*

## Minimum Habitat Threshold Comparisons

*Pipistrellus subflavus*

## Recommendation

- Use of minimum habitat thresholds
-  enhanced biological validity of accuracy assessments

## Acknowledgements

- National GAP (USGS)
- Kentucky Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources

## Acknowledgements

- 	Tom Kind                             	Mark Drew  				Geoff Ghitter			 	Mike Busby

- Matt Cole         Kelly Somerlot

- Keith Wethington David Vichitbandha Dave Frederick

## Acknowledgements

- KY Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources                  	Jeff Sole                           	Laura Burford                 	Rocky Pritchert            	Steve Thomas         	Sunni Lawless             	Tim Slone                       	Traci Wethington            	Jason Paxico                    	 Roy Grimes
- KY State Nature Preserves Commission                       	Brainard Palmer-Ball

- Morehead University    	Les Meade Eastern KY University  	Chuck Elliott   	Gary Ritchison 	Paul Cupp   Murray State University	Duke Wilder        	Ed Zimmerer   	Tom Timmons            University of Cincinnati  	Guy Cameron  Austin Peay State Univ. 	Floyd Scott

## Acknowledgements

- Daniel Boone National Forest                  	                           	John MacGregor 	Lynda Perry              East KY Power Co. 	Jeff Hohman     University of Kentucky   	Mike Lacki              	David Maehr      	Thomas Barnes EcoTech                      	Hal Bryan