# Presentation: 375933

## Global Monsoon Team Lead
Song Yang

Regional Monsoon Group Leads

Africa: Wassila Thiaw
Asia-Australia: Muthuvel Chelliah
North America: Wei Shi
South America: Viviane Silva

- Song Yang
- Regional Monsoon Group Leads
- Africa: Wassila Thiaw
- Asia-Australia: Muthuvel Chelliah
- North America: Wei Shi
- South America: Viviane Silva

- Global Monsoon Team members:
- Yun Fan
- Jon Gottschalck
- Wayne Higgins
- Vern Kousky
- Vadlamani Kumar
- Kingtse Mo
- Jae Schemm
- Wanqiu Wang
- Pingping Xie
- Soo-Hyun Yoo
- Qin Zhang

- The Climate Prediction CenterGlobal Monsoon Monitoring Activity

*Wassila M. Thiaw*
***Climate Prediction Center***

## Outline

- Objectives
- Global monsoon briefing page features
- Climate risk assessments
- Domestic and International Outreach
- Future Development and challenges

## Climate Prediction CenterMission Statement

*“**We deliver climate monitoring, assessment, and prediction products for timescales from weeks to years to the ****Nation and the global community**** for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.”*

## Consolidate climate monitoring efforts at CPC

Better understand the global monsoon systems

Improve forecasts

Provide advanced notice on potential climate and weather related hazards

- Better understand the global monsoon systems
- Improve forecasts
- Provide advanced notice on potential climate and weather related hazards

- Objectives

## CPC unified gauge-based precipitation data

Other CPC precipitation data sets

NCEP reanalysis

NCEP global forecast system and ensembles

NCEP coupled forecast system

Data from international partners

- Other CPC precipitation data sets
- NCEP reanalysis
- NCEP global forecast system and ensembles
- NCEP coupled forecast system
- Data from international partners

- Current Data

## Global Monsoon Web-Page Features

**2. Current Status**

- Recent evolution: total and anomalies (Last 90, 30, and 7 days)
- Sea surface temperature
- Winds (200 and 850 hPa)
- Velocity potential (200 hPa)
- Soil moisture
- Precipitation
- Outgoing longwave radiation
- Temperature – 2 meter
- Regional monsoons briefing web pages

## Global Monsoon Monitoring Website

**Global Patterns**

**www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monsoons/**

## Velocity Potential and Precipitation Anomalies11 Jul – 8 Oct 2008

- Precipitation Anomalies

- 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies

## Regional Monsoon Web-Page Features

**2. Current Status**

- Animation of weekly OLR, 200 hPa streamlines, and 850 hPa winds
- Recent evolution (Last 180, 90, 30, and 7 days)
- Precipitation maps and time series
- Temperature – 2 meter
- SST and soil moisture
- Winds and water vapor flux
- Weekly monsoon updates (PPT)
- Highlights (last 7 days)
- Recent evolution (Last 180, 90, 30, and 7 days)
- Week1 & Week2 outlooks
- Summaries
- GFS Forecasts
- Seasonal monsoon summaries
- Annual monsoon reports

## Regional Precipitation Anomalies

- 90-day P anomaly Jul 11 – Oct 9

- 90-day P anomaly Jul 9 – Oct 7

## Global and RegionalClimate Risk Assessment

- Global and RegionalClimate Risk Assessment

- NOAA-USDA
- Joint Agricultural Weather
- Facility (JAWF)
- Weekly Crop Bulletin

## Domestic and InternationalOutreach Potentials

- Email list
- Weekly ppt updates sent to over 400 people
- US Military
- Advance warning for coastline erosion
- Fishery protection
- NHC
- Advance warning of potential for Atlantic hurricane activity
- NWS WFOs
- Academic institutions

## Domestic and InternationalOutreach Potentials

- USAID Famine Early Warning System Network
- Support FEWSNET humanitarian assistance: Africa, Afghanistan, and Central America
- USAID Asian Flood Network & Africa Programs
- Support USAID/OFDA capacity building efforts
- National Meteorological Services
- Knowledge of the state of the global climate
- Improve local climate monitoring and predictions

## Future Development and Challenges

- Develop monsoon indices for all regions
- Develop forecast forums for monsoon regions
- Develop customer tailored products
- Challenges
- Limited predictability on both subseasonal and seasonal time scales
- Limited resources for Research and Development
- Inconsistency in current precipitation data

## The 2008 Global Monsoon Poster

-  **During JJAS 08, both southwest US (AZ/NM) and NAM core area received above-average precipitation.**
** ****Onset date: July 04 (based on rainfall data) in AZ/NM region (average ~ July 03). **
** ****Very wet July associated with active tropical cyclone activities in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Gulf of California moisture surges.**

**  ****Indian Monsoon**

** ****The southwest summer 2008 monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent was near to slightly above normal. **
** ****Early season torrential rains along a broad swath of the Gangetic plains in the foothills of the Himalayas contributed to flooding in the region and positive anomalies in the seasonal mean map. Below normal rainfall occurred farther south in the peninsular region.  However, later in the season the situation tended to reverse, leading to an overall near-normal rainfall season for the country as a whole. **
** ****A prominent aspect of the large-scale pattern of precipitation in the region was a  pronounced  E-W dipole in the tropical Indian Ocean (not shown) with a positive anomaly center in the western Indian Ocean. In addition, an SST dipole was observed in the tropical Indian Ocean. The possible effects of these on the Indian monsoon rainfall, especially the flooding in northeastern India, are not clear and need to be studied. **

**Global Monsoons Webpage**
- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons
- For questions or comments, please contact:
- Song.Yang@noaa.gov
- (for general issues about the CPC Global Monsoons products)
- Muthuvel.Chelliah@noaa.gov
- (Asian-Australian monsoons)
- Wei.Shi@noaa.gov
- (North American monsoon)
- Viviane.Silva@noaa.gov
- (South American monsoon)
- Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov
- (African monsoons)

**CPC Monsoon Working Group**