# Presentation: 287376

## AHPS:Uses and Experiences in an Operational Setting

***National HPM Conference***
***New Orleans, LA***
***December 6-10, 2004***

**Peter Jung – Service Hydrologist - WFO CTP**
**State College, PA**

## AHPS!!

- Ugh,
- Hydrology!

- Yeah!

**Notes:**
Before AHPS (about 2 years ago)

After AHPS

**In-House Applications**
**External  Customers / Feedback**
**Training (and challenges)**
**Best Practices**

**Field Experiences and Best Practices using the AHPS Web Pages**

**Notes:**
# Just like anything in hydrology, tough to get staff motivated or interested in new forecast tools during a drought.

# Extreme flooding in September – 4 tropical systems affect Central Pennsylvania (Bonnie, Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) changed that.

# At one point 32 of 47 forecast points in flood...many moderate or major (and 1 record).

# I consider this the first real “break-in” test for AHPS...both for internal and EXTERNAL users in Central PA

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In-House – How AHPS is being used by the CTP forecasters in an operational setting

External Users / Feedback – Talk about how AHPS is used outside the agency and some of the feedback we’ve gotten (mainly over the summer)

Staff Training – pitfalls and successes locally experienced/observed

Best Practices – suggestions to make AHPS more accepted and used by forecasters and customers

## AHPS – Use by the Forecast Staff

**Provide **_**quick**_** overview for forecasters**
_**Quick**_** reference for EMA and public’s questions**
**Valuable media briefing tool**

**Notes:**
# Emphasize the word QUICK. With GFE, time is of the essence for forecasters.
Shows which points are in flood at a glance on entry page.
Similar to Hydroview, but in a busy WX event, forecasters find it easier to keep a PC web page open than take away one AWIPS screen just to monitor Hydro points.
Also able to combine multiple river points and forecasts in the “River at a glance” feature – great start of shift self-briefing tool

# Multiple points in flood – difficult to keep track of multiple FLW and FLS issuances.
Click gives a current stage and timeline of latest forecast. Probably the biggest utility.

# Media Briefings – virtually no questions can be asked by the media that aren’t readily available on the Web page.
(Crest History, which brings up an important point to update ASAP things like historical crests, quick links to RFC QPF input into forecasts)

## AHPS – Use by Customers

**1 - Local  **
**     ****Emergency**
**     ****Managers**
**2 – PEMA**
**	**** ****(Pennsylvania **
**       ****Emergency**
**       ****Management**
**	****  ****Agency)**
**3 - Media**

**Notes:**
# Customer feedback so far has been very favorable.
Local EMA’s were able to examine impact statements and relate to actual occurrences. Add and correct as needed.
Ability to see forecasts quickly...often faster than waiting for WFO to issue text Warning and Statement products
Customize displays, again using the “River-at-a-glance” feature
Tailor to individual needs – ability to add supplemental data points at user request.
Graphical displays definitely the way to go!
NEED to keep web pages current and up-to date. Old data will turn EMA’s off!

# PEMA Just like forecast office, ability to see a large area of concern at a glance
State and county officials use data for planning road closures and evacuations

# MEDIA Can link to AHPS page. Story of local TV stations with direct links to AHPS pages.
During flooding, this link pushed to the front page...later pushed back to the weather page.
Answered many public questions, and may reduce calls to the local office.

## Staff Training

**Wean off existing technology**
***Office Workshops***
***One-on-one training***
***Drills***

**Training on probabilistic graphics difficult**
***Not intuitive to many***
***Lack of use during long periods of normal or low flow events causes “memory atrophy”***

**Notes:**
# Old habits die hard!
Graphical nature of AHPS a real draw to forecasters
More of an appreciation of what AHPS offers with more use (less TIME needed to do research...look things up)

# New paradigm in thinking about River forecasts
Similar to some of the new thinking about ensemble weather forecasting – a RANGE of solutions!

## Best Practices

**WFO Staff**
***Training***
***Familiarization***
***Keep Interest and Involvement High***
**External users**
***Familiarization***
***Consistency***

**Notes:**
INTERNAL

Training –  Stress how graphical displays of data really convey more information in a shorter amount of time than text products... 

Familiarization -  Keep AHPS open on a PC during an event

Keep Interest and Involvement High - Solicit input from staff on recommendations/improvements. Changes can be made!

EXTERNAL

Familiarization – Email (screen captures) .... One-on-one meetings with WCM .... BE THERE for questions and comments

Consistency – EMA’s don’t like change.  One plus of AHPS. Evident that forethought was put into AHPS original design. Although there have been improvements and changes...basic design remains the same. 

## Where AHPS helps today!(where the rubber meets the road)

**Faster access to data by forecasters**
**Faster dissemination of forecasts and observed data to customers**
**More detailed data available to media**
**Ability to observe trends and pick out areas where forecast not matching observations**

## Where AHPS may help in the future

**County and State EMA’s **_***very***_** excited about partnered services such as inundation mapping**
**Continued standardization and “polishing” of presentations**

**Notes:**
Standard Hydrograph backgrounds with adjustable scales
Ability to add points based on customer requests
Ability for faster updates to web pages with fresh material (new crests, impact statements)