# Presentation: 715501

## Measurement of Inherent Risk in Processed Meat and Poultry Products

**Matthew Michael**
**Office of Program Evaluation, **
**Enforcement & Review**

## RBI and Measures of Risk

**Allocation of Agency resources under RBI at each inspected processing establishment will rely upon two measures of risk:**
**  ****Inherent  Risk Measure****:  a measure of the inherent risk posed to the public health by each type of processed meat and poultry product, assuming typical process control by the producing establishment, and; **
**  ****Risk Control Measure****:  a measure of the amount of risk control achieved by each establishment.  **

## Measure of Inherent Risk

**Provides a relative value for the risk posed to the public health by each category of processed meat and poultry product produced in an official establishment.  **
**Takes into account the species of animal processed and the type of processing (hazard component); and the production volume (exposure component) for that product at each establishment.**

## Inherent Risk Formula

**Hazard ***** x*****  Exposure *****=*****  Risk Measure**
**Species/Process Value  *****x*****  Volume  *****=*****  Inherent Risk**

## Species/Process Values

**Each Species/Process Value represents a measure of the relative risk of illness posed by one of the categories of processed meat and poultry products  **
**FSIS determined the initial Species/Process values through a 2005 expert elicitation.**
**FSIS is having a new, modified expert elicitation developed by a contractor now.  It will be completed in June 2007.**
** **

## The 2005 Expert Elicitation 

**The instrument for the 2005 elicitation was peer reviewed by five experts outside of FSIS.**
**FSIS asked 23 experts from academia, the Federal government and industry to score 24 species/process categories to reflect the relative risk of illness per serving that each poses to consumers. **
**A list of those experts can be found on the FSIS Webpage at:  **
**	****http://www.fsis.usda.gov/PDF/Elicitation_Memo_092205.pdf**

## Median Species/Process Values

| Finished Product Type | Median Score |
| --- | --- |
| Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non-intact beef | 10 |
| Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non-intact chicken | 10 |
| Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non-intact turkey | 10 |
| Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non-intact poultry other than chicken or turkey | 10 |
| Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non-intact meat other than beef or pork | 9.7 |
| Raw intact turkey | 9 |
| Raw intact chicken | 8 |
| Raw intact poultry—other than chicken or turkey | 8 |
| Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non-intact pork | 8 |
| Raw otherwise processed meat | 7 |
| Raw otherwise processed poultry | 7 |
| Raw intact beef | 5 |
| Raw intact meat—other than beef or pork | 5 |
| Raw intact pork | 4 |
| RTE fully-cooked meat | 3 |
| RTE fully-cooked poultry | 3 |
| RTE acidified/fermented meat (without cooking) | 2 |
| RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without cooking) | 2 |
| RTE dried meat | 2 |
| RTE dried poultry | 2 |
| RTE salt-cured meat | 2 |
| RTE salt-cured poultry | 2 |
| RTE meat fully cooked without subsequent exposure to the environment | 1 |
| RTE poultry fully cooked without subsequent exposure to the environment | 1 |

## The 2007 Expert Elicitation

**The next elicitation, to be completed in June of 2007, will use instruments modified in response to public comment, as well as a peer review.**
**Also in response to public comment, the experts will be recruited from three groups (academics, public health professionals, and industry experts) in equal numbers.**

## Volume

**FSIS will use production volume data for each type of product to develop the exposure component for each establishment.  Volume data has been collected for each establishment from FSIS inspection program personnel.**

## Volume Data Collection

| Pounds Shipped in a Typical Day | Number of Days Product Shipped in the Last 30 Days |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|   | 1 - 5 Days | 6 - 10 Days | 11 - 15 Days | 16 - 20 Days | More than 20 Days |
| Don't Know         | * | * | * | * | * |
| 1 - 50 
Pounds     | 1-250 | 6-500 | 11-750 | 16-1000 | 21-1500 |
| 51 - 250 Pounds             | 51-1250 | 306-2500 | 561-3750 | 816-5000 | 1071-7500 |
| 251 - 500 Pounds            | 251-2500 | 1506-5000 | 2761-7500 | 4016-10000 | 5271-15000 |
| 501 - 2,000 Pounds         | 501-10000 | 3006-20000 | 5511-30000 | 8016-40000 | 10521-60000 |
| 2,001 - 10,000 Pounds | 2001-50000 | 12006-100000 | 22011-150000 | 32016-200000 | 42021-300000 |
| 10,001 - 50,000 Pounds | 10001-250000 | 60006-500000 | 110011-750000 | 160016-1000000 | 210021-15000000 |
| More than 50,000 Pounds | * | * | * | * | * |

## Products of Pound/Day Averages Divided into Quintiles

| Average Pounds Shipped in a Typical Day
 |              Average Number of Days Product Shipped in the Last 30 Days
 |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | 2.5 | 7.5 | 12.5 | 17.5 | 25 |
| 25 | 62.5 | 187.5 | 312.5 | 437.5 | 625 |
| 150 | 375 | 1125 | 1875 | 2625 | 3750 |
| 375 | 937.5 | 2812.5 | 4687.5 | 6562.5 | 9375 |
| 1250 | 3125 | 9375 | 15625 | 21875 | 31250 |
| 6000 | 15000 | 45000 | 75000 | 105000 | 150000 |
| 30000 | 75000 | 225000 | 375000 | 525000 | 750000 |
| 150000 | 375000 | 1125000 | 1875000 | 2625000 | 3750000 |

| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Average Pounds Shipped in a Typical Day
 |              Average Number of Days Product Shipped in the Last 30 Days
 |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | 2.5 | 7.5 | 12.5 | 17.5 | 25 |
| 25 | 62.5 | 187.5 | 312.5 | 437.5 | 625 |
| 150 | 375 | 1125 | 1875 | 2625 | 3750 |
| 375 | 937.5 | 2812.5 | 4687.5 | 6562.5 | 9375 |
| 1250 | 3125 | 9375 | 15625 | 21875 | 31250 |
| 6000 | 15000 | 45000 | 75000 | 105000 | 150000 |
| 30000 | 75000 | 225000 | 375000 | 525000 | 750000 |
| 150000 | 375000 | 1125000 | 1875000 | 2625000 | 3750000 |

| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

## Inherent Risk Score

**The Inherent Risk score will be calculated on a 100 point scale, with 2 being the lowest calculated score:**
**  ****2 ****                                                                             ****100**

## Example Calculations

|   | Product | Inherent Risk (R)    | Volume (V) | % Volume | R  x % Volume (RV) | Score (V x RV) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Plant A | 100% Raw Ground, Comminuted, or Otherwise Not Intact Beef | 20 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 20 |
|   |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Plant B | 100% Raw Ground, Comminuted, or Otherwise Not Intact Beef | 20 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 100 |

## More Example Calculations

|   | Product | Inherent Risk (R)    | Volume (V) | % Volume | R  x % Volume (RV) | Score (V x RV) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Plant C | 100% Raw Ground, Comminuted, or Otherwise Not Intact Beef | 20 | 1 | 0.2 | 4 | 4 |
|  | 100% Raw Ground, Comminuted, or Otherwise Not Intact Pork | 16 | 2 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 12.8 |
|  | Raw Intact Beef | 10 | 2 | 0.4 | 4 | 8 |
|  | Sum |   |  5  |  1 | 14.4 | 24.8 |
|   |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Plant D | 100% Raw Ground, Comminuted, or Otherwise Not Intact Beef | 20 | 2 | 0.2 | 4 | 8 |
|  | 100% Raw Ground, Comminuted, or Otherwise Not Intact Pork | 16 | 4 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 25.6 |
|  | Raw Intact Beef | 10 | 4 | 0.4 | 4 | 16 |
|  | Sum |   | 10 |  1 | 14.4 | 49.6 |
|   |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Plant E | 100% Raw Ground, Comminuted, or Otherwise Not Intact Beef | 20 | 3 | 0.5 | 10 | 30 |
|  | 100% Raw Ground, Comminuted, or Otherwise Not Intact Pork | 16 | 1 | 0.16 | 2.56 | 2.56 |
|  | Raw Intact Beef | 10 | 2 | 0.33 | 3.33 | 6.66 |
|  | Sum |   | 6 |  1 | 15.89 | 39.22 |