# Presentation: 493758

## AQI Forecasting in the Puget Sound

## Our Role

**We operate 11 air monitoring sites  that provide year round real-time data. (Pm****10****, pm****2.5****, Nephs)**
**We provide AQI reporting/forecasting services Seattle and Tacoma MSA’s **
**We are a member of the Washington state network**

## Is this worth doing?

**Returning products to the taxpayers.**
** ****Investments in Monitoring**
** ****Investments in MM5 project**
**An Informed public **
**People like to make their own decisions**
**Increase awareness of air quality issues**
**Support operational programs**
**Burn bans**
**Smog watch**

## Program Goals

**Provide 48 hour notice of expected air quality conditions.**
** **
**Provide 72-96 hour notice for internal planning.**
**Predict “predominate” AQI conditions.**
**Improve tools and products.  **
**Establish a lasting year round program**
**Disseminate via AIRNOW and Local Web site, TV Weather Teams**

## Resources

**Existing Air monitoring network**
**Regional modeling effort and tools**
**Availability of meteorological tools via internet**
**Staff resources**
**E-Government approach for dissemination**
**Senior Leadership support**

## Factors that influence PM forecasts 

**Fine Particulate properties**
- Help in making area forecast
- Local knowledge of communities
**Available Meteorological/Monitoring  Products**
- Improvements in synoptic and Mesoscale tools
- Recent performance of models
- Air Monitoring network
**Behavioral changes**
- Perceptions of heating cost
- Burning in early fall.
- Summer fuel strategies

## What pollutants are important?

**Diverse air shed**
**Particulate is the primary driver of AQI**
**Summer ozone **
**Generally only an issue 5-7 days over the summer**
**PM still persistent driver of AQI **
**Other criteria pollutants no factor**

## Puget Sound Air Shed

## Puget Sound Ozone 1996-2000

## Summer 2001	

**What Ozone?**
**Very cool summer!  3****rd**** year in a row.**
**Provided Air Quality forecasts for PNW2001 air operations**

## Wood Smoke Burn Ban 2001

**We can restrict the use of wood burning**
**PM ****10 **** conditions reach 60****μg/m3 (24hr avg.)**
**Stagnant conditions are expected to last 48 hours or more**
**Wood smoke is believed to be a major contributing factor**
**  **

## Wood smoke Burn Ban 2001

**Weather conditions over area**
**High Pressure ridge (SFC-500mb)**
**Moderate to Strong inversion**
**Offshore low level wind flow**
**Light wind speeds at surface**
**Cool/Cold (<45F) Temps**

## Wood smoke Burn Ban 2001

**Synoptic Models gave indication of pattern**
**>120hrs out.**
**Uncertainty of performance impacted internal notification**
**Time duration of event**
** ****Mesoscale models added confidence**
** **

## Implementation

**AQI forecasts called for Moderate and declining trend**
**06 Nov**
**Internal planning**
**NWS Coordination (Air Stagnation Watch)**
**Forecasted Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.**
**Issued on the 7****th**** of Nov**
**Worked with King 5 TV**
**Could not implement Burn Bun **
** ****High confidence in Models**
** ****Issued Burn Ban **
**10 AM 08 Nov made  final decisions  **
**2 PM 08 Nov to 6 PM 12 Nov**

## Puget Sound Air Shed

## Monitoring Network Corrections

## Industrial- Central Seattle

**Called Burn Ban**

## Residential-North  

## Commercial/Residential-South 

## Residential- Tacoma

**Burn Ban**

## Residential – Tacoma   

## Conclusions

**Feedback from users indicated we met our objectives**
**Local knowledge is critical to forecasts.**
**Down to neighborhood level.**
**Monitoring equipment performance/bias**
**  ****Forecaster experience**
**Daily review of MRF products and performance**
**Important to being proactive in planning**

##  NEXT STEPS

**Develop a better verification program**
**Predominate condition versus peak value **
**AQI Categories versus Concentration**
**Some customers use forecast for notification of highly sensitive groups  **
**Prefer to join in a larger effort**
**Expand the program**
**Consider adding more forecast points**
**Refine monitoring network to better support the forecast program **

## Air Quality Index 

## Variability in the air shed

## Thank You!

**Like a stock broker..**
**  ****We are not troubled by LONG periods of uninterrupted success.**