# Presentation: 279011

## The Canadian Air Quality Forecasting System 

- The Canadian Air Quality Forecasting System

**V.S. Bouchet, R. Moffet, M. Moran, A. Robichaud, L.-P. Crevier, S. Ménard, S. Cousineau, S. Gaudreault, M. Sassi, H. Landry, W. Gong, P. Makar, J. Pudykiewicz, A. Kallaur**** **

## Air Quality Forecasts
Prepare models & tools for operation and support real-time operations (models)
Prepare model-ready emission files
Participate in real-time evaluation (user group)

Air Quality Scenarios
Support development of policies, national and international assessments
Prepare model-ready emission files
Real-time and case studies (AQ models & trajectories)

Support to Regions
Support modellers in Regions with implemetation of air quality models and analysis tools (SPI, tool box, trajectories)

Support to field campaigns
Provide tailored products for field campaigns

- Prepare models & tools for operation and support real-time operations (models)
- Prepare model-ready emission files
- Participate in real-time evaluation (user group)
**Air Quality Scenarios**
- Support development of policies, national and international assessments
- Prepare model-ready emission files
- Real-time and case studies (AQ models & trajectories)
**Support to Regions**
- Support modellers in Regions with implemetation of air quality models and analysis tools (SPI, tool box, trajectories)
**Support to field campaigns**
- Provide tailored products for field campaigns

**AQ Modelling Application Group - MANDATE**

## HISTORY OF THE FORECASTING PROGRAM

** ****Summer 1999: **Pilot Air Quality Forecasting Program for eastern Canada
** **Limited to ground-level ozone
-  Numerical guidance: CHRONOS, eastern domain, 21km spatial resolution
** ****Summer 2001: **Air Quality Prediction Program extended to all subarctic Canada
-  CHRONOS, continental domain, 21km spatial resolution, limited to surface ozone
** ****Summer 2002: **
** **Introduction of bulk aerosol scheme in experimental CHRONOS version
-  Operational version: ozone, sulphates and SOA
-  Beginning of experimental real-time scenarios
** ****Summer 2003:**
-  Implementation of bulk aerosol scheme in operational CHRONOS version (public)
-  Forecasts and experimental real-time scenarios for ozone and PM
-  Experimental Objective Analysis of ground-level ozone
-  **Summer 2004:**
-  Continuation of ozone and PM forecasts, experimental real-time scenarios, OA (op)
-  Major hardware changes
-  Experimental assimilation of ground-level ozone in support of ICARTT campaign

## Meteorological driver: GEM, the Canadian regional/forecast model
Chemistry: Gas- and heterogeneous- phase chemistry
No aqueous-phase chemistry
PM representation: sectional approach, 2 bins (fine/coarse)
Advection, diffusion and dry & wet deposition (sedimentation only for PM)
Emissions: 1995 Canadian national inventory and 1996 US NEI

Domain specifics:
21km grid covering North America
24 levels to 6 km

Performance:
Run from 00 UTC for 48 hours
Less than 3 hours of computing time for whole North-America
Forecast available at 08 UTC 

**Chemistry:** Gas- and heterogeneous- phase chemistry
**No aqueous-phase chemistry**
**PM representation:** sectional approach, 2 bins (fine/coarse)
- Advection, diffusion and dry & wet deposition (sedimentation only for PM)
**Emissions:** 1995 Canadian national inventory and 1996 US NEI
**Domain specifics:**
- 21km grid covering North America
- 24 levels to 6 km
**Performance:**
- Run from 00 UTC for 48 hours
- Less than 3 hours of computing time for whole North-America
**Forecast available at 08 UTC**

**MODEL DESCRIPTION – OPERATIONAL VERSION **

## SAMPLE CHRONOS 

**FORECAST - WINTER**

**PM2.5 (ug/m3) – **
**February 5, 2005 – **
**(6h avg)**

**Jan. 31**

**Feb. 1**

**Feb. 2**

**Feb. 3**

**Feb. 4**

**Feb. 5**

**Feb. 6**

**Feb. 7**

**TEOMs measurements in the **
**vicinity of Montreal**
**(courtesy Environ. Canada, Quebec region)**

## SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR SUMMER 2004

**SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR SUMMER 2004**

## SYSTEMATIC POINT TO POINT COMPARISON

**SYSTEMATIC POINT TO POINT COMPARISON**

- CHRONOS versus AIRNOW real-time data – Aug. 20th, 2004 – 18:00Z

**CHRONOS  tends to overpredict ozone afternoon values (1h)**

## CATEGORICAL ANALYSIS

**CATEGORICAL ANALYSIS**

## 2005 OPERATIONAL VERSION

-  **Changes in anthropogenic emissions: ****dated emission information**
-  1995 Canadian NEI to 2000 Canadian NEI
-  CEPS to SMOKE
-  **Changes in biogenic emissions: ****afternoon ozone over-prediction**
-  BEIS2/USGS framework to BEIS3/BELD3 framework
-  BEIS3/BELD3 has limitations for Canada
-  **Changes in heterogeneous chemistry options:** **timing of model run**
-  HETV, based on ISORROPIA (*Nenes et al., 1998*) – optimized for vector machine, fast on scalar a well
-  Initially, full representation of suphate-nitrate-ammonium-water system
-  Opted for metastable option for 2005 operational version
-  Very little impact on model with limited aqueous phase representation
-  Decreased execution time by 20% (2h for 48h forecast of whole continent)
-  Now in position to consider 00Z and 12Z runs

## CHANGES IN ANTROPOGENIC EMISSION FILES

- New emission file

- Old emission file

## CHANGES IN BIOGENIC EMISSIONS

**USGS/BEIS2**

**BELD3/BEIS3**

**Isoprene emissions (ug/m2/hr) at standard T (30C) and standard PAR **

## Validation of 2005 operational version: parallel run

- Operations to be part of the evaluation of new versions of AQ models as they are installed officially in parallel mode:
- Operational meteorologists at CMC and in the regions are identified to evaluate the parallel model for acceptance to go operational.
- April/May 2005 – 1 month long parallel run
- Tools to compare parallel and operational runs are being developed.
- At the end of evaluation period, **CPOP** review

## OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

- Presently no observation data is used for forecast
- One avenue to improve the forecast is to correct initial conditions to take into account observed data
- Currently, OA of surface O3 is performed but not fed to CHRONOS
- First step in assimilation cycle
- Every hour, 24/7, year round
- Operational since June 2004
- Multi-year analysis since summer 2002

**http://www.msc.ec.gc.ca/aq_smog/analysis_e.html**

**OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS**

## OTHER REAL-TIME APPLICATIONS

-  Experimental real-time scenarios with CHRONOS
-  Testing of emerging developments:
-  assimilation of surface ozone in CHRONOS
-  More complete parameterization of PM: AURAMS

-  Support for development of health base AQI for Canada

## EXPERIMENTAL REAL-TIME SCENARIOS

- 6 on/off scenarios + 1 base case: BC, Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, Maritimes, US

**EXPERIMENTAL REAL-TIME SCENARIOS**

- February 5, 2005
- Quebec off scenario

- February 5, 2005
- Base simulation/forecast

## REAL-TIME SURFACE OZONE DATA ASSIMILATION

**REAL-TIME SURFACE OZONE DATA ASSIMILATION**

-  Run experimentally during ICARTT campaign
-  Using AIR*Now* real-time data
-  3h of assimilation on 12Z forecast (limited by timeliness of data)
- - Success technologically
- - Scientific evaluation in progress – definitely promising

-  Other data assimilation projects at MSC (R. Ménard):
**Online chemistry with operational meteorological model GEM**
- - CO assimilation: GEM with chemistry (CO) + MSC 3D VAR-Chem
- - Coupled chemical-climate data assimilation (statosphere): looking at the benefits and drawbacks of chemistry-dynamics coupling in data assimilation

## AURAMS REAL-TIME SIMULATIONS

-  Initiated for the ICARTT campaign; has been running ever since
-  Part of ensemble forecast during ICARTT (Stu McKeen, NOAA)
-  AURAMS was developed as comprehensive PM model
- - **12 bins** sectional model
- - **7 aerosol chemical species** (internally mixed) SO4=, NO3-, NH4+, OC, EC, CM, Sea-salt
- - **Aqueous-phase chemistry** represented (including evaporation, but no convective mixing yet)
-  5h for 48h run at 42km resolution versus <3h for CHRONOS at 21km res

## AURAMS REAL-TIME SIMULATIONS

-  Will be providing flight guidance in real-time for PRAIRIE 2005
-  Part of ensemble forecast at UBC

- Development lead by MSC - Quebec region
-  Inclusion of forest fires for specific  simulations in CHRONOS (past cases)

- 2002 Quebec forest fires