# Presentation: 805453

##  Improving Internal Migration Estimates:   Update

- Esther R. Miller
- Presentation at blah blah

## Oveview

- Description of Returns Based Methodology
- Description of People Based Methodology
- Scenario to Compare Differences

## Step 1:  	Obtain Administrative 				Records and match by PIK

- Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 1040 files
- Address as of April 15, 2002 (Y1)
- Address as of April 15, 2003 (Y2)
- Number of exemptions – filer, spouse, child, parent
- Social Security Numident File
- Collapse records to Census Numident Person Characteristics File (PCF)
- File contains modeled age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all persons with an SSN

## Step 2:	Assign Characteristics:		Return Based Methodology

- Age
- Filer and spouse exemptions are assigned filer’s age from PCF
- Child exemptions are assigned to a 19 and under age category
- Parent exemptions are assigned to a 65+ age category
- Sex
- Filer is assigned filer’s sex from PCF
- Spouse exemption is assigned opposite sex of filer
- Child and parent exemptions are assigned sex by random number generator

## Step 2:	Assign Characteristics:		Return Based Methodology 			(cont.)

- Race and Hispanic origin
- Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s race and Hispanic origin from PCF

## Step 2:	Assign Characteristics:		Person Base

- Age, sex, race, Hispanic origin assigned directly from match to PCF

## Step 3	Assign Migration Status:		Compare FIPS code Y1-			Y2

- Y1 and Y2 FIPS codes
- 	Return Based
- Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s Y1 and Y2 state and county FIPS codes
- Person Based
- Filer matched across Y1-Y2
- Spouse matched across Y1-Y2
- All dependents matched across Y1-Y2

## Step 4:	Scenario:		Migration 01-02 and 02-03

| 2001 |  |  | 2002 | 2003 |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Type of Exemption | Age | State | Status | Type of Exemption | Age | State |
| Filer | 64 | NJ | Same | Filer  | 66 | NJ |
| Spouse | 56 | NJ | Same | Divorce | 58 | MA |
| Daughter | 14 | NJ | Same | Daughter | 16 | MA |
| Son | 20 | NJ | Same | Son | 22 | NJ |
| Son | 20 | NJ | Same | Student | 22 | WI |

## Step 6:	Migration Status		Returns Base (as is)	

| 2001 -  202 |  |  | 2002 - 2003 |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Type of Exemption | Age | Migration Status | Type of Exemption | Age | Migration Status |
| Filer | 65 | nonmover | Filer  | 66 | nonmover |
| Spouse | 65 | nonmover |  |  |  |
| Son or
Daughter | < = 19 | nonmover |  |  |  |
| Son or
Daughter | <= 19 | nonmover | Son or
Daughter | <= 19 | nonmover |
| Son or
Daughter | <= 19 | nonmover |  |  |  |

## Step 6:	Migration Status		Person Based

| 2001 -  202 |  |  | 2002 - 2003 |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Type of Exemption | Age | Migration Status | Type of Exemption | Age | Migration Status |
| Filer | 64 | nonmover | Filer  | 66 | nonmover |
| Spouse | 57 | nonmover | Filer | 58 | Out and In |
| Daughter | 15 | nonmover | Daughter | 16 | Out and In |
| Son | 21 | nonmover | Son | 22 | nonmover |
| Son | 21 | nonmover | Son | 22 | Out and In |

## Step 4:	Compare Outcome – 			Return vs People Base

- Migration 2001 – 2002
- Return Based
- 	Filer		64
- 	Spouse	64
- 	Exemption	19 or younger
- 	Exemption 	19 or younger
- 	All non-movers