# Presentation: 406702

## Dr. Laura Kong
Director, ITIC
August 2006

*Director, ITIC*
*August 2006*

**UNESCO IOC TSUNAMI PROGRAMME**

- TSUNAMI EARLY
- WARNING SYSTEMS:

- Hazard Risk Assessment

**     **_**COMPONENT**_**	**_**TECHNOLOGY**_**	****     **_**PRODUCT**_
**	**
**ASSESSMENT****	*****• Historical Studies    • Historical Database***
***	******	******	******           • ******Field Surveys ******	******     ******• Inundation Maps***
***	******	******	******• ******Numerical Simul*****	****    *****• Evacuation Maps***** ****	**
**	****	****	****	****	****	**
**	**
***	******	******	******	******	******	***

**  **
**Hazard Reduction Strategy:**
**Assessment**

## 
Compile complete catalogue for earthquakes and tsunamis.  Understand local and regional geology and tectonics.

Identify most hazardous tsunami source areas (local, regional, or distant) and its tsunami-generating mechanism (earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption).

Identify most vulnerable coastal locations from sources (historical or expected).

For coastal locations, conduct modeling for inundation and runup to determine impact.

- <date/time>

**Compile complete catalogue for earthquakes and tsunamis.  Understand local and regional geology and tectonics.**
**Identify most hazardous tsunami source areas (local, regional, or distant) and its tsunami-generating mechanism (earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption).**
**Identify most vulnerable coastal locations from sources (historical or expected).**
**For coastal locations, conduct modeling for inundation and runup to determine impact.**

***Hazard Assessment***

## Document Hazard occurrence – 
Where are earthquakes?                                
Where are tsunami sources?
Where are tsunami impacts?
Local Sources – Newspapers, Survey Reports Event Logs, Journals, Oral history, Interviews
Historical database (GTDB, WDC-A/NGDC, ITIC, and local archives)
Paleotsunami research (deposits, uplift)
Post-tsunami surveys
Also need Database for establish Warning System thresholds

**Where are earthquakes?                                **
**Where are tsunami sources?**
**Where are tsunami impacts?**
**Local Sources – Newspapers, Survey Reports Event Logs, Journals, Oral history, Interviews**
**Historical database (GTDB, WDC-A/NGDC, ITIC, and local archives)**
**Paleotsunami research (deposits, uplift)**
**Post-tsunami surveys**
**Also need Database for establish Warning System thresholds**

***Hazard Identification***

## Tsunami Activity and Runup

## Risk Assessment

**What is likelihood of occurrence?**
**What is expected earthquake impact?**
**What is expected tsunami impact along coast?**
**  **
**Numerical modelling**
**	***Need detailed bathymetry, topography*
*	**TIME models (Tsunami Inundation*
*	**                        **Modeling Exchange)*
**Runup & inundation maps**
**Evacuation maps**
**               **

*January 3, 2002 Mw7.1 Vanuatu earthquake and tsunami                            *
*                         **Tsunami record and Tsunami model based on data*

## Terminology: Modeling & Mapping

**Modeling Study****:  ****efforts required to produce final model results - incl bathy/topo grids, source specification, model runs, Quality Control ...**
**Inundation Grid Resolution****:****   "coarse”  >     50 m**
**  ****	****	****	****	****	****        ****"fine"    < =  50 m**
**Model Results****:  **_**Scientific products**_** to the Govt**
**Inundation Map****:  **** **_**Govt product**_** fr Model Results**
**Evacuation Map****:  **_**Govt product**_** fr inundation Map**
**      ****for range of earthquake/tsunami scenarios**
**Jurisdictions for Maps****:  ****cities, towns, localities, tribal areas, ... that have local government.**

## Terminology: Modeling & Mapping

## Model Results:  Scientific Products

## Inundation Map

***Inundation Map***

## Assessment - Multiple Hazards Map  

**Assessment - Multiple Hazards Map  **
**Seismic Intensity (Modified Mercalli Scale)  **
**Tsunami Inundation potential  **
**Liquefaction susceptibility  **
**Landslide potential  **

***Eureka, California***

## Assessment and Mitigation: Empirical Evacuation Maps 

**1. Post-Tsunami Scientific Survey - Data Collected:**
**    ****Runup, Inundation, Geology, Structural Damage**
**    ****Eyewitness observations: wave arrival, behavior**
**2. Satellite Imagery (before and after)**
**3. Synthesize => Tsunami Event Flooding Map**

## Assessment and Mitigation: Empirical Evacuation Maps 

**4. Assuming worst case scenario, **
**	****Considering coastal topography and elevation,   roads and other easily managed walking paths, strength and height of buildings ...**
**	****Construct Tsunami Evacuation Map**
**	****Identify Tsunami Shelters**
**	****Construct Tsunami Evacuation Routes**

## Slide 14

## Evacuation Maps – Safe Routes

**Planning Elements**
**Identify ALL Stakeholders**
**Workshops with Local Residents**
**Single Access Roads**
**Congregation areas**

***“******Local tsunami evacuation maps developed based on modeling, maps and local oral history”***
***  ***

**Notes:**
Workshops are held within the counties and local communities.  Responders, businesses etc., are invited to participate.  Counties who have tribes invite the tribal council to take part and work with the tribes on their evacuation plan (Though they are sovereign, they must work with the local communities – we may not be able to support them in an event where county resources may be available.)
Based on mapping information, communities are broken down into two categories
Single Access Roads – take longer to evacuate 
Congregation areas – area’s that can be evacuated to
Because of political reasons, congregation areas may not be addressed
Neighborhoods are encouraged to come up with evacuation plans (example:  Many have keys to local timber gates for evacuation purposes
Evacuation routes are coordinated with adjacent counties, state agencies (WSP/DOT), and local businesses where evacuation on their land is required
Install tsunami Warning and Evacuation Signs

## Evacuation Planning
Traffic Control
Beach Evacuation

**22**

**25**

**26**

**47**

**23**

**8**

**12**

- Evacuation Planning
**Traffic Control**
**Beach Evacuation**

##   State  Evacuation Map                    Shows routes for Safe Public Exit 

- <date/time>

**16**

**22**

**25**

**26**

**47**

**23**

**8**

**12**

**  ****State  Evacuation Map                    *****Shows routes for Safe Public Exit****** ***