# Presentation: 923383

## Long-Term United States and

***World Energy Market Trends***

**Guy Caruso**
**Administrator**
**Energy Information Administration**
**Seminar with **
**Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation**
**September 13, 2007**
**www.eia.doe.gov**

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2005 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**Reference**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

## U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of

**U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of**
**Real Gross Domestic  Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030

**U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

**Liquid Fuels**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

## U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,

**U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,**
**2005 and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2030 (million barrels per day)

**Industrial**

**Transportation**

**Residential and Commercial**

**Electric Power**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Consumption in Three Price Cases, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day)

**Reference**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## Average Fuel Economy of U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicles,

**1980-2030 (miles per gallon)**

**Cars**

**All Light-Duty Vehicles**

**Light Trucks**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Ethanol Production, 1981-2030

**(billion gallons)**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**Corn Ethanol**

**Cellulosic Ethanol**

## U.S. Sales of Unconventional Light-Duty Vehicles,

**U.S. Sales of Unconventional Light-Duty Vehicles,**
**2015 and 2030 (thousand vehicles sold)**

**Hybrids**

**Flex Fuel**

**Turbo Direct Injection Diesel**

**Gaseous**

**Electric**

**Fuel Cell**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Crude Oil  Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Lower 48 Onshore**

**Alaska**

**Deepwater Offshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**Total**

**Shallow Water Offshore**

## Total U.S. Unconventional Oil Production in Two Cases,

**2005-2030 (thousand barrels per day)**

**Reference**

**High Price**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Imports(million barrels per day)

**60%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**67%**

**High Price**

**High Price**

**Low Price**

**Low Price**

**49%**

**Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Imports****(million barrels per day)**

**61%**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## Lower 48 Wellhead Natural Gas Prices, 1990-2030 

**(2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

**Reference**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2030

**(trillion cubic feet)**

**Transportation****

**Industrial***

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Electric Power**

- Projections

- History

- * Includes lease and plant fuel

- ** Includes pipeline fuel

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**16%**

**21%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(trillion cubic feet)**

**Alaska**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore**

**Lower 48 Associated-Dissolved**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply,

**2005-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**Growth in Alaskan Production**

**Growth in**
**Non-Associated**
**Unconventional**

**Growth in LNG Imports**

**Base Production (all sources)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Unconventional Natural Gas Production, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

**Tight Sands**

**Coalbed Methane**

**Gas Shales**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

**Overseas LNG**

**Mexico**

**Canada**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. LNG Imports, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

- History

- Projections

**New Terminals**

**Existing Terminals**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector,

**2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)**

**22.8**

**24.2**

**27.5**

**Coal-to-**
**Liquids**

**Other**

**Electric**
**Power**

**35.0**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## 3-Year Rolling Average U.S. Electricity Demand Growth(with exponential trend line)

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

**3-Year Rolling Average U.S. Electricity Demand Growth****(with exponential trend line)**

|  | Annual Growth |
| --- | --- |
| 1950s | 10.5% |
| 1960s | 7.3% |
| 1970s | 4.2% |
| 1980s | 2.6% |
| 1990s | 2.3% |
| 2000-2005 | 1.4% |
| 2005-2030 | 1.5% |

## U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2030

**(billion kilowatthours)**

**Petroleum**

**Renewables**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2005 and 2030

**(billion kilowatthours)**

**  ****-  percent of total**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel, 2006-2030 (gigawatts)

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**Nuclear**

## U.S. Nonhydroelectric Renewable Electricity Generation,

**92**

**165**

**185**

**211**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**U.S. Nonhydroelectric Renewable Electricity Generation,**
**2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)**

**Geothermal**

**Solar**

**Biomass**

**MSW and**
**Landfill Gas**

**Wind**

## U.S. Electricity Price, 1970-2030

**(2005 cents per kilowatthour)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030

**U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030**
**(million metric tons)**

**6,214 in 2010**

**6,944 in 2020**

**Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2030**
**(metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)**

**486 in 2010**

**407 in 2020**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**7,950 in 2030**

**353 in 2030**

## Annual Energy Outlook 2007 reference case indicates that through 2030....

**Traditional fossil fuels are expected to continue to meet the bulk of energy requirements over the projection period**
**U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent**
**The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent**
**U.S. oil import dependence, measured as a share of U.S. oil use, is not expected to increase over the next 25 years**
**U.S. natural gas use is projected to be level off over the last decade of the projection**
**Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports**
**Carbon dioxide emissions from energy are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent**

##  World Energy Consumption,2004, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**240**

**207**

**265**

**294**

**298**

**404**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## Average Annual GDP and Population Growthfor Selected Regions, 2004-2030(percent per year)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Marketed Energy Use, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**34%**

**8%**

**28%**

**6%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

**24%**

**38%**

**26%**

**23%**

**7%**

**6%**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

##  World Liquids Consumption,2004, 2015, and 2030 (million barrels per day)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**49**

**33**

**52**

**46**

**57**

**61**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Proved Oil Reserves, as of January 1, 2007(billion barrels)

*Oil & Gas Journal, *Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006)

**World Total =**
**1,317 billion barrels**

## World Liquids Production, 2004-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent)

**Non-OPEC (Conventional)**

**OPEC (Conventional)**

**Unconventional**

**Total**

**53**

**10**

**54**

**118**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## Non-OPEC Producing Regions with More than a One-Million-Barrel-per-Day Increase in Production, (million barrels per day oil equivalent)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## OPEC Conventional Liquids Production(million barrels per day)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Unconventional Liquids Production, 1980-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent)

- Other includes shale oils and other unidentified sources of unconventional liquid fuels.

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

##  World Natural Gas Consumption,2004, 2015, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**51**

**48**

**62**

**67**

**70**

**93**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Natural Gas Reserves by Region, as of January 1, 2007(trillion cubic feet)

**World Total =**
**6,183 Trillion Cubic Feet**

*Oil & Gas Journal, *Vol. 104, No. 47 (December 18, 2006)

## World Natural Gas Production, 2004-2030(trillion cubic feet)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

##  World Coal Consumption,2004, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**47**

**68**

**51**

**101**

**59**

**140**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

##  World Net Electricity Generation,2004, 2015, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**9,455**

**6,969**

**11,120**

**11,169**

**13,190**

**17,174**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Nuclear Generating Capacity, 2004 and 2030(gigawatts)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

##  World Renewables Consumption,2004, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**18**

**15**

**22**

**22**

**25**

**29**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

##  World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-2030 (million metric tons)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**11,399**

**9,847**

**13,457**

**13,465**

**14,692**

**19,197**

**1990**

**16,654**

**26,226**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-2030 (billion metric tons)

**Coal**

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Total**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## International Energy Outlook 2007 reference case indicates that through 2030...

**Worldwide marketed energy consumption grows by 57 percent, with the highest growth projected for the developing countries.**
**World unconventional production (including biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) accounts for 9 percent of the world liquids supply in 2030.**
**Coal is the world’s fastest-growing fuel source, increasing by 2.2 percent per year, remaining an attractive fuel for nations with access to ample resources, like China, India, and the United States, which account for 86 percent of the projected increase in world coal demand.  **
**Higher fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns, improved reactor designs, and environmental considerations are expected to improve the prospects for nuclear power generation.**
**Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030.**** **

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2007*****, February 2007**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2007*****, May 2007**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48                   ****	****Federal Outer Continental Shelf,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2007***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**