# Presentation: 221798

## Aviation Products Derived from GOES Satellite Data	

- Gary P. Ellrod
- Office of Research and Applications
- (NOAA/NESDIS)
- Camp Springs, MD

## Product Development Areas

**Aviation Hazards**
- Low clouds / Fog
- Aircraft Icing
- Volcanic Ash
- Microburst Winds
**Related projects**
- High Density Winds
- Clouds above 12 kft
- Convective instability
- CAT climatology

**Resources**
- 0.7 FTE (G. Ellrod)
- 1 contractor as of June ‘00 (Raytheon)
- 3 HP-755 workstations
**Funding**
- GOES I-M Product Assurance Plan  (NESDIS)

## Experimental Satellite Products

**GOES Data Required:**
- Imager: Multi-spectral data (5 bands)
- Sounder: Temperature / moisture profiles
**Means of Display:  Internet  (Hourly)**
*http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/arad/fpdt/*
**Evaluators:**
- NWS (WFOs and AWC), DoD, airlines, etc.
**In-house Validation Uses:**
- Pilot reports, surface observations, upper air data, other satellite data

## Fog and Low Cloud Detection at Night

## Improved Depiction of Low Clouds / Fog 

**GOES Enhanced Low Cloud Product**
- Uses GOES IR (10.7 - 3.9 m)  image, and         IR - surface temperature difference
- Thresholds set based on statistical analysis
- Red indicates IFR ceilings (<1000 ft) likely
- Validation based on >500 METAR reports:
- Probability of Detection (POD) **~74%**
- False Alarm Ratio (FAR) **~ 14%**
- Possible upgrades:
- Reduce under-detection of IFR conditions

**Notes:**
This product shows the likelihood of low cloud bases (<1000 ft) for aviation.  The GOES "fog product" (10.7 minus 3.9 IR) is color-enhanced with information based on the GOES IR (10.7) minus surface temperature difference.  The smaller this difference, the more likely it is that there are low clouds present.  Low cloud areas are shown by red (likely) or yellow (good chance). Higher cloud base areas (>1000 ft) are indicated by green, and cirrus is shown by black and blue.  The product is not reliable when there is thin cirrus over the low clouds (as in South Carolina in this example), or sometimes in mountainous areas.

## In-flight Icing Detection

**GOES Aircraft Icing Product**
- Uses 3 IR (3.9, 10.7, 12 m), + Visible
- Icing shown in blue
- Validation:
- POD **~ 80%**
- FAR **~10%**
- Needed upgrade:
- Height information

## Improved Volcanic Ash Detection

**GOES 3-Band IR Ash Product**
- Uses 3.9 m, along with 10 & 12 m IR
- Improves on “split window” technique
- In use at Washington VAAC
- Develop strategies for loss of 12 m IR

**Equador**

**Columbia**

## Wind Gust Potential from GOES Sounder

## GOES Microburst Products

**Wind Index, Wet & Dry Microburst Indices**
- Use GOES Sounder temp. / moisture profiles
- Validation:
- Wind Index mean error **~ 3 knots**
- Wet Microburst Index correlates highly with microburst occurrence at Cape Canaveral         (Fla. Institute Of Technology)
- Possible upgrades:
- Improve Wind Index at night, reduce area of dry microburst risk, provide site-specific products
- Microburst Indices planned for NWS AWIPS

## Summary and Conclusions

- Experimental GOES products have been developed in following aviation hazard areas:
**Low ceilings / fog**
**In-flight icing**
**Convective wind gusts**
**Volcanic ash**
- Validation shows good product quality
- Improvements planned, but resources limited
- Products can also be derived with data from polar  spacecraft (NOAA, METOP, etc)