# Presentation: 713139

## A Socioeconomic Evaluation of Sustainable Recreation Development in the Southern Appalachians: The Case of Mountain Biking at Tsali

**J.M. Bowker and D.B.K. English**
**USDA Forest Service, SRS-4901**
**Athens, GA 30602-2044**
**Frank Findley**
**USDA Forest Service, R-8**
**Robbinsville, NC  28771**

## Map of Tsali

## Major Objectives for this Study

**Describing mountain biking participants, and identifying market segments**
**Giving managers at Tsali feedback about their customers’ perceptions of the area’s current attributes, facilities, and management policies**
**Giving managers at Tsali feedback about customers’ preferences for future management policies and facility development**
**Assisting local communities’ efforts in rural economic development through tourism, by providing information about the spending patterns, use patterns, and sources of information pertaining to mountain biking tourists**
**Developing estimates of the economic benefits and regional economic impacts generated by mountain bike recreation at Tsali**

## Research Design

**129 days of surveying at Tsali from 8-98 thru 8-99**
**Days sampled within each season based on estimated season’s share of annual use**
**Trained volunteer interviewers randomly surveyed visitors over age 12 at the end of their day’s ride**
**1,359 on-site contacts were made – less than 1% refused**
**Questionnaire “team-designed” and pre-tested**
**On-site questions included person’s number of annual mountain biking trips (general & Tsali), household demographics, preferences & satisfactions with Tsali facilities, & information about their current trip to Tsali**
**Two different surveys were used – due to the large number of questions**

## Research Design Continued

**Expenditure mail-back questionnaire per trip spending in general and in two-county area**
**Questionnaires designed for CONTINGENT TRIP and CONTINGENT EXPENDITURE modeling**
**CONTINGENT TRIP – stated preference stepchild of travel cost method**
**CONTINGENT EXPENDITURE – hybrid of IMPLAN and contingent trip  **

## Management Alternatives

- _Management Alternatives_

**Continue with present trail and rotation system**
**Maintaining current fees - $2/day or $15/year**
**Add a new 6-8 mile trail loop at Tsali**
**Fees would increase - $3/day or $20/year**
**Construct a 6-8 mile section of a long (60-80 mile) point-to-point trail originating at Tsali and ending in the Graham/Swain area**
**Fees would increase - $3/day or $20/year**
**Construct a loop trail system at a new location within the Graham/Swain area**
**Fees would increase - $3/day or $20/year**
**Improve non-trail facilities at Tsali – add 4 showers (2/male & 2/female); 2 bathrooms; & 2 new dispersed camping areas.**
**Fees would increase - $3/day or $20/year**

**A.**
**B.**
**C.**
**D.**
**E.**

## Contingent Trip

- _Contingent Trip_

- Past year’s trips
- Future year’s trips
- Change in trips per alternative
- Socioeconomic variables
- Count data demand model
- Stacked w/binaries for alternatives

## Contingent Trip Model Results

**Negative Binomial N=955**
**Dep. Var.= HTRPNX**

| Variable | Coefficient | t-val | Mean x |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Constant | 1.62 | 14.6 | 1    |
| MILE2CAP | -0.13 E-2 | -9.7 | 321.6 |
| YEARS MB | 0.36 E-1 | 5.1 | 5.5 |
| GO ELSE | -0.61 E-1 | -0.9 | 0.78 |
| HHINC | -0.69 E-5 | -5.7 | 56.2 |
| LOCAL | -0.79 | -4.9 | 0.04 |
| ALTB | 0.175 | 2.1 | 0.20 |
| ALTC | 0.155 | 1.9 | 0.20 |
| ALTD | 0.167 | 2.0 | 0.20 |
| ALTE | 0.079 | 0.9 | 0.20 |
| Alpha | 0.362 | 10.95 | -- |

## Economic Measures

- _Economic Measures_

- Consumer surplus/trip= $91.46
- Own-price elasticity  = -0.41
- Predicted mean trips:
- ALTA=2.749
- ALTB=3.278		+19%
- ALTC=3.212		+17%
- ALTD=3.250		+18%
- ALTE=2.974		+8%

## Contingent Expenditure

- _Contingent Expenditure_

- Current trip spending per visitor
- Adjust for percent locals
- IMPLAN multipliers
- Change in trips per alternative
- Change in expenditures per alternative
- Combine with multipliers

## Effect of Management Options on Annual Visitation 

| Management Option | Mean increase in annual trips to Tsali | Mean annual increase above baseline |
| --- | --- | --- |
| A. No change from current management (baseline scenario) | 0.266 trips | ---- |
| B. Build new 6-8 mile loop at Tsali | 0.801 trips | 0.529 trips |
| C. Each year, build 6-8 mile section of 60-mile point-to-point trail | 0.730 trips | 0.463 trips |
| D. Build a new loop trail system, at a site near to Tsali | 0.777 trips | 0.501 trips |
| E. Improve non-trail facilities at Tsali | 0.471 trips | 0.225 trips |

- Effect of Management Options on Annual Visitation

## Summary of Visitation Impacts of Management Changes

|  | Current | Management Option |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  | A | B | C | D | E |
| Visits/year to Tsali | 2.724 | 2.990 | 3.525 | 3.454 | 3.501 | 3.195 |
| % increase | -- | 9.76 | 29.4 | 26.8 | 28.5 | 17.3 |
| # non-local visits (thousands) | 23.33 | 25.61 | 30.19 | 29.59 | 29.98 | 27.37 |

## Effect of Management Options on Visit Characteristics

| 

Management Option | Avg. change in trip length (in days) | Avg. change in per person per trip spending in Swain/Graham Counties |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  | Lodging | Food | Mountain Biking | Other |
| B. Build new 6-8 mile loop at Tsali | 0.55 | $13.57 | $14.74 | $2.78 | $8.08 |
| C. Each year, build 6-8 mile section of 70-mile point-to-point trail | 0.86 | $16.22 | $16.24 | $6.14 | $14.00 |
| D. Build new loop trail system, at a site nearby to Tsali | 0.99 | $22.97 | $17.73 | $5.90 | $11.73 |
| E. Improve non-trail facilities at Tsali | 0.46 | $4.43 | $5.76 | $3.68 | $2.49 |

## Summary of Per Person Spending for Nonlocals Per Trip to the Tsali Area

| Avg. spending in local area | Management Option |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Current | B | C | D | E |
| Lodging | 53.73 | 67.30 | 69.95 | 76.70 | 58.16 |
| Food | 44.31 | 59.04 | 60.54 | 62.04 | 50.07 |
| Mountain Biking | 17.22 | 19.99 | 23.36 | 23.13 | 20.90 |
| Other activities | 10.17 | 14.23 | 17.70 | 15.97 | 11.99 |
| All other | 34.66 | 38.57 | 41.03 | 40.48 | 35.34 |
| TOTAL | 159.99 | 199.13 | 212.58 | 218.32 | 176.36 |

## Estimates of Economic Impact of Management Alternatives

|  | Management Options |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | A | B | C | D | E |
| # non-local visits (thousands) | 25.61 | 30.19 | 29.59 | 29.98 | 27.37 |
| Spending per visit in the local area | 159.99 | 199.13 | 212.58 | 218.32 | 176.36 |
| Total nonlocal visitor spending ($millions) | 4.097 | 6.011 | 6.290 | 6.545 | 4.827 |
| Output multiplier | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Output impact | 4.998 | 7.333 | 7.674 | 7.869 | 5.889 |
| Increase in output (Millions) | 0.445 | 2.780 | 3.121 | 3.316 | 1.336 |
| % increase from current | 9.7 | 61.1 | 68.5 | 72.8 | 29.3 |

## Aggregated Results

|  | TRIPS (k) | CS ($m) | Nonlocal Exp ($m) | Total Impact ($m) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ALTA | 27.4 | 2.50 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| ALTB | 32.0 | 2.93 | 6.01 | 7.33 |
| ALTC | 32.7 | 2.99 | 6.29 | 7.67 |
| ALTD | 32.4 | 2.96 | 6.55 | 7.87 |
| ALTE | 29.6 | 2.71 | 4.83 | 5.89 |

## Conclusions

- Alternatives A (status quo) and E (improve non-trail facilities) are the **least desirable** per consumer surplus and local area economic impacts
- Alternatives B (new Tsali loop), C (new linear section beginning at Tsali), D (new Graham County loop) are similar across economic measures
- Alternative D generates the **most local economic impact**
- Alternative C generates the **most net economic benefit**
- Alternative B generates economic impacts and benefits on par with D and C and is probably the **least costly** of the preferred alternatives
- Study demonstrates that management alternatives generating the most consumer surplus (economic efficiency) may not be optimal if the goal is to stimulate the local economy

## To see the draft report

**To see the draft report**
**Go to**
**www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends**