# Presentation: 068119

## Fred Joseck
Technology Analyst
DOE Hydrogen Program
April 12, 2005

**and the**
**Role of Systems Analysis**** **

**Fred Joseck**
**Technology Analyst**
**DOE Hydrogen Program**
**April 12, 2005**

## Transportation Petroleum Use by Mode (1970-2025)

- Note:  Domestic production includes crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, refinery gain, and other inputs. This is consistent with EIA, MER, Table 3.2. Previous versions of this chart included crude oil and natural gas plant liquids only.
- Source: _Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 24_, ORNL-6973, and _EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2005_, Preliminary release, December 2004.

**Transportation Petroleum Use by Mode (1970-2025)**
**2003 Total =  13.42 mbpd**

## Why Hydrogen? 

*** ****H****2**** from NG during transition phase only**

**Why Hydrogen? **

_**Energy Security**_
**Produced from diverse domestic resources**
_**Environment**__** **_
**Mobile criteria pollutants eliminated**
**Stationary emissions easier to control**
**Greenhouse gas emissions reduced**
_**Economic Competitiveness**_
**Abundant, reliable, and affordable energy is an essential component in a healthy, global economy**

**U.S. Energy Policy for hydrogen is focused on research**

**HIGH EFFICIENCY & RELIABILITY**

**ZERO/NEAR ZERO****EMISSIONS**

**Transportation**

**With Carbon Sequestration**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas***

**Oil**

**Nuclear**

**Distributed**
**Generation**

**Hydro**
**Wind**
**Solar**
**Geothermal**

**Biomass**

**It’s **_**abundant**_**, **_**clean**_**, **_**efficient**_**, and can be derived from diverse **_**domestic**_** resources**

## Hybrids are a Bridge

**Near-term focus on hybrids**
**Transition Phase to Hydrogen; decentralized H2 production from distributed natural gas**
**Long-term hydrogen fuel production from diverse domestic carbon free sources such as renewables, nuclear and coal with sequestration**.
- *Only carbon emissions come from energy used in hydrogen production & delivery process

*Potential scenarios – not predictions*

***Hybrid vehicles ****are a bridge technology that can reduce pollution and our dependence on foreign oil until long-term technologies like hydrogen fuel cells are market-ready. *

- _Hybrid/Hydrogen FCV Strategy_

## Hydrogen Infrastructure and Fuel Cell Technologies put on an Accelerated Schedule 

**President Bush commits a total $1.7 billion over first 5 years:**
- $1.2 billion for hydrogen and fuel cells RD&D ($720 million in new money)
- $0.5 billion for hybrid and vehicle technologies RD&D
**Accelerated, parallel track enables industry commercialization decision     by 2015.**

***Fuel Cell Vehicles in the Showroom ***
***and Hydrogen at Fueling Stations ***
***by 2020***

## Integrated Plan Developed to Overcome Challenges

- Describes technology development to support commercialization decision by industry in 2015
- Covers basic research through technology validation
- Office of Science
- Office of Fossil Energy
- Office of Nuclear Energy, Science and Technology
- Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
- Identifies performance-based milestones for stakeholders to track progress

## Timeline for a Hydrogen Economy

- Positive commercialization decision in 2015 leads to beginning of mass-produced hydrogen fuel cell cars by 2020

## Barriers to a Hydrogen Economy

- _Critical Path Technology Barriers:_
-   Hydrogen Storage (>300 mile range)
-   Hydrogen Production Cost    ($1.50-2.00 per gge)
-   Fuel Cell Cost (< $50 per kW)
- Economic/Institutional Barriers:
-  Codes and Standards (Safety, and Global Competitiveness)
-  Hydrogen Delivery  (Investment for new Distribution Infrastructure)
-   Transition from a Hydrocarbon-Based Economy to a Hydrogen-Based Economy
-   Education

*http://www.er.doe.gov/production/bes/hydrogen.pdf*

*http://www.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenanfuelcells/mypp/*

## The National Energy Plan (NEP)

- NEP Recommended:
-   Increasing international cooperation on finding alternatives to oil, especially for the transportation sector
-   Promotion of market-based solutions to environmental concerns
-   Support of exports of U.S. clean energy technologies and encourage overseas development activities,
-   To explore collaborative international basic research and development in energy alternatives and energy-efficient technologies,
-   Exploration of innovative programs to support the global adoption of these technologies.

## FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership

- Established

_**New Energy Company/DOE**_
_**Technical Teams**_
-   Production
-   Delivery
-   Fuel Pathway Integration

_**New Joint Auto/Energy/DOE**_
_**Technical Teams**_
-   Codes and Standards
-   Storage

## . . . the Number of Vehicles in the World Is Growing

***Source:  EE Analytic Team***

- Global Perspective

*Many countries have concerns about energy and environmental security related to transportation/mobility*

**Notes:**
The number of worldwide automobile and truck registrations is expected to grow tremendously in future years*.  Here’s the situation in industrialized countries – a doubling between now and 2050.*  Developing nations like China and India are expected to experience an explosion in the number of vehicles.  *Over the next 50 years, the number of vehicles worldwide would grow from 670 million to over 3.5 billion.

## International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy

- _IPHE Partners’ Economy:_
- Over $35 Trillion in GDP, 85% of world GDP
- Nearly 3.5 billion people
- Over 75% of electricity used worldwide
- > 2/3 of CO2 emissions & energy consumption

- _IPHE Vision_:
-        “... consumers will have the practical option of purchasing a competitively priced hydrogen power vehicle, and be able to refuel it near their homes and places of work, by 2020.”
- 			               - Secretary Abraham, April 2003

## DOE Requested the National Academies to Evaluate its Hydrogen Planning

- “A transition to hydrogen as a major fuel in the next 50 years could fundamentally transform the U.S. energy system, creating opportunities to increase energy security through the use of a variety of domestic energy sources for hydrogen production while reducing environmental impacts ...”
- “This committee believes that investigating and conducting RD&D activities to determine whether a hydrogen economy might be realized are **important to the nation**.”

## DOE is Evolving its H2 Program to Respond to NRC Recommendations

- Focus on the “transition” to a hydrogen economy, critical issues needed for 2015 decision
- Exploratory research on hydrogen storage and fuel cell cost & durability
- “Laser-like” focus on distributed hydrogen infrastructure.  Lower capital costs & increase efficiency of natural gas reformers and electrolyzers
-   Let the long-term hydrogen economy “evolve”
- Fundamental and exploratory research on coal/carbon capture sequestration, photoelectrochemical, photobiological, thermochemical, etc.

*The National Academies’ conclusions support the President’s vision. *
*DOE concurs fully with 35 of 43 recommendations.  *
*Currently evaluating other 8 for implementation.*

## Path Forward to Implement the NRC Recommendations

- Use hydrogen storage model to shift emphasis in fuel cells to exploratory research for cost & durability
- Increase investments in natural gas reforming and electrolyzers (treat these as critical path)
- Employ systems analysis to map out options and a transition plan consistent with developing infrastructure
- Strengthen infrastructure program (storage, purity, pipeline materials, compressors, leak detection, permitting, and codes/standards)
- Increase underlying safety research and analysis
- Establish fundamental science efforts in longer term hydrogen production concepts, storage, fuel cells, etc.
- Integrate with carbon capture/sequestration and across all department programs

## Balanced Program Being Implemented

- Technology Validation through “Learning Demonstrations”

- Research & Development

**% of Budget**

- FY 2006 Total Budget Request by Category ($259.5M)

## Systems Analysis

**Introduction**
**	****Systems Analysis**
**Coordinated, comprehensive analytical and modeling function for the DOE Hydrogen Program.**
**Integrated process linking modeling tools and resources.**
**Foundation for decision making  from a consistent set of inputs.**

- “The effective management of the
-  hydrogen program...far
-   more challenging than any activity
-  previously undertaken...”
- “...establish a systems analysis function...”

***The Hydrogen Economy:  Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs***

**NRC, February 4, 2004**

**Finding  9-2**

**Recommendation  9-3**

**The importance and need of a robust Systems Analysis capability, supporting the DOE Hydrogen Program, was identified in the National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering report (The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs, February 2004).**

## Organization

**Organization**

- Systems
- Integrator -
- Dale
- Gardner
- (NREL)

## Systems Analysis

**	****Purpose**
**Identify the impacts of various hydrogen technology pathways.**
**Identify the key costs, associated cost elements and the cost drivers.**
**Evaluate the research and development status and priorities.**
**Evaluate the significance of R&D results.**
**Assess and make recommendations concerning the progress of R&D efforts.**

## Key Barriers and Systems Analysis

**	****Key Barriers to be addressed through Systems Analysis**
**Infrastructure requirements and development**
**Transition **
**Understanding the transition from a hydrocarbon based economy to a hydrogen based economy.**
**Vehicle penetration**
**Means**** **
**Modeling**
**Analysis**
**Analysis community**

## Systems Analysis

- New model for transition analysis will be built with an AGENT based modeling philosophy.

**Organization**

- NREL

- DTI

- EEA

- RCF

- ANL

- TIAX

- NREL

- NREL

**Project**

- Macro-System Model

- Transitional Analysis

- Transitional Analysis

- Transitional Analysis

- Emissions Analysis

- Fuels Choice

- Infrastructure Anal.

- HyDS

**Systems Analysis**

## Cost Reduction is a Primary R&D Driver
Hydrogen Production and Delivery
Cost of hydrogen must be competitive with gasoline, without adverse environmental impacts
$1.50/gge-$2.00/gge untaxed
Hydrogen Storage
Capacity must enable >300-mile range, and meet packaging, performance, and cost requirements
$2/kWh (~ $300 for 5-kg H2 storage system)
Fuel Cells
System cost must be competitive with ICE and meet performance and durability requirements 
$30/kW  (~ $2400 for an automotive fuel cell system)

**Cost Reduction is a Primary R&D Driver**
**Hydrogen Production and Delivery**
- Cost of hydrogen must be competitive with gasoline, without adverse environmental impacts
**$1.50/gge-$2.00/gge untaxed**
**Hydrogen Storage**
- Capacity must enable >300-mile range, and meet packaging, performance, and cost requirements
**$2/kWh (~ $300 for 5-kg H****2**** storage system)**
**Fuel Cells**
- System cost must be competitive with ICE and meet performance and durability requirements
**$30/kW**  **(~ $2400 for an automotive fuel cell system)**

***	******High-volume manufacturing processes are critical to meeting***
***	******cost targets.***
***	***
***	*****Systems Analysis will be focusing on infrastructure and transition **
**	****analysis.**
**A lot of work ahead...**
***	***

**Summary**

## Backup

## Organization

**HFCIT**

## Hydrogen Modeling Methodology Overview

**Market & Benefits Analysis (PBA)**
** ****(NEMS and MARKAL Models)**

**Transition & Vehicle**
** ****Penetration Models  **

**Vehicle Model PSAT**

**Standard Set of Base Models**

**Macro System Model**

**Hydrogen Posture Plan**

**Data Book**

**Outputs/**
**Results**

-   Balanced R&D portfolio
-  Information for making federal investment decisions
-  Implications of policy decisions
- Identification of interagency coordination.

**Systems Analysis**

##    PEM Fuel Cell Cost  7X gap between today’s high volume cost & our target

-    PEM Fuel Cell Cost  7X gap between today’s high volume cost & our target

- High volume production defined as 500,000 units per year
- Cost estimated by Tiax with enhanced hydrogen storage.

## Distributed Hydrogen Production From Natural Gas On Target

**APCI validated $3.60/gge hydrogen – delivered, untaxed, co-producing electricity at 8¢ per kWh.**
**$3.00/gge target in 2005 within reach**
**Reformer research **
**Optimized desulfurization, reformer, and shift catalysts**
**Improved heat recovery system**
**PSA research**
**99.999% pure H****2 **
**3x cost reduction compared to commercial units**
**Decreased size**
**82% efficiency (64% in 2003)**

**PSA Unit**

**Las Vegas station**

***In 2025, assuming FCVs represent 12% of LDV inventory, EIA estimates only 2.8% increase in natural gas demand compared to reference case***

**Notes:**
Reducing refueling station capital costs and improving system efficiencies are technical barriers being overcome with the APCI  “Turnkey Refueling Station” partnership. At the start of this partnership, the efficiency of commercial H2 PSA units was approximately 64% when delivering 99.999% purity H2 from a steam-methane-reformer syngas stream delivered at 120 psig.  As a reminder, H2 PSA efficiency is defined as:  (moles of H2 in product H2 stream) / (moles of H2 in syngas stream fed to PSA unit).  

Significant progress has been achieved as a result of APCI investigating new adsorbents, developed a new PSA mechanical system, and built and operated 2 prototype H2 PSA units in the field.  These field PSA units (located in Butler, PA) are operating at just over 80% efficiency, which meets or exceeds the PSA target for 2005 ! More specifically, novel structured adsorbents and advanced beaded adsorbents show significant improvement in bed size and hydrogen recovery. PSA cycle development work concluded and was used to fully utilize the advanced adsorbents capabilities.

Regarding capital cost, the DOE has communicated H2 PSA goals of reducing the cost from $0.17/kg H2 to $0.11/kg H2, or a 35% reduction in cost.  To date, APCI’s new H2 PSA unit is about 1/3 to 1/4 the cost (65 to 75% reduction in cost) of the H2 PSA systems available when we started the program, again meeting the DOE targeted improvement.

In FY 04, APCI continues working towards integrating a new second generation reformer (based on the Las Vegas Harvest reforming technology) with the other system subcomponents. Dispenser development was just completed.

## Analysis Roles & Responsibilities

**Accountable for analysis activities**
**Provide inputs/priorities to the Analysis Agenda**
**Advises PM on policy issues**
**Assure communication of a consistent data and info**
**Provide analysis that is inherent Govt responsibility**
**Provide analysis in response to short-term and urgent requests (quick-response tasks)**
**Primary direction/guidance interface with TDMs/subprograms and Tech Teams**
**Provide analysis coordination within DOE (EERE programs, Offices, PBA, EIA)**
**Interpret analysis scenarios provided by SI**

**TECHNOLOGY ANALYST**

## Analysis Roles & Responsibilities

**Develop Analysis Agenda (including technical and time pathways)**
**Develop, maintain, resolve consistent data sets/info and standard analysis assumptions and guidelines**
**Provide independent analysis (policy-related issues, Go/No-Go recommendations, H2 in the context of larger energy markets, etc.)**
**Ensure tools/models are developed, maintained, available, validated**
**Provide independent review of analysis results**
**User and/or requestor of info generated by TA (especially from other parts of DOE)**
**Define analysis scenarios**

**NREL SYSTEMS INTEGRATION**