# Presentation: 481012

## A Prototype Operational Modeling System for Waves, Currents, Inundation and Hydrologic Flooding for Eastern North CarolinaRick Luettich - UNC Chapel HillJeff Hanson - US Army Corps of EngineersRandy Kolar - University of OklahomaJJ Gourley – NOAA NSSL, Norman OKProject Duration:3 years; currently completing year 1December 2, 2008

**A Prototype Operational Modeling System for Waves, Currents, Inundation and Hydrologic Flooding for Eastern North Carolina**Rick Luettich - UNC Chapel HillJeff Hanson - US Army Corps of EngineersRandy Kolar - University of OklahomaJJ Gourley – NOAA NSSL, Norman OK**Project Duration:**3 years; currently completing year 1**December 2, 2008**

**Notes:**
 If desired, list active partners and acknowledgement

## Project Overview

**Project Overview**

- 2008 Project Goals (3 yr project):
-   Provide information on offshore and near shore wave conditions
-   Provide information to assess rip current threats
-   Provide wave and current conditions in high traffic areas (e.g., inlets)
-   Provide near shore currents for search and rescue operations
-   Provide inundation information for coastal storm surge and hydrologic runoff
- Major Elements:
-   Numerical model(s) evaluation, implementation and coupling
-   Observing system data access & use in model skill assessment
-   Rip current surveys on 5 mile stretch of NE NC Outer Banks
- Desired Outcomes:
-   Wave condition information used by NWS to improve forecasts
-   Initial wave model performance evaluation with overall scores ≥ 0.8
-   Storm surge/hydrologic flooding info used by NWS to improve forecasts
-   Near shore currents used to improve search and rescue
-   Improved rip current forecasts
-   Evaluate skill in flooding, near shore currents, rip current forecasts

## Project Status Report

**Project Status Report**

- Project Schedule and Milestones (year 1):
-   Develop/refine model domains & associated data bases
-   Implement quasi-operational, high-resolution coupled wave-current model
-   Develop data streams to distribute output to WFOs and to USCG
-   Ingest regional IOOS observational data streams; develop and demonstrate skill
-    assessment scheme (waves)
-   Evaluate hydrologic models & b.c.s between hydrologic & coastal models
-   Workshop with users - get feedback on product value, tech transfer
- Significant Accomplishments:
-   IOOS regional data retrieval prototype implemented
-   Automated Model Evaluation & Diagnostics System (AutoMEDS) waves prototype1
-   NC wave model quasi-operational at USACE2
-   Web site for interim transfer of products to NWS WFOs2
-   10 m DEM and high resolution unstructured grid developed for Eastern NC3
-   Google Earth storm surge/inundation maps of Eastern NC provided to USCG and
-    NWS WFOs for TS Hanna and quasi-operationally since ~ Nov 1, 2008
-   Google Earth storm surge/inundation maps for numerous NHC advisories provided to
-    NOAA S Reg. Climate Center, LA GOHSEP & USACE for hurricanes Gustav and Ike
-   Summer long rip current survey on 5 mile stretch of beach on NE NC Outer Banks
- Notes: 1Cost share with UNCW IOOS project (Leonard) and USACE MORPHOS Program           2Cost share with NWS COMET project (Luettich/Hanson)
-            3Cost share with NC Floodplain Mapping Program

## Keys to Success

**Keys to Success**

- What worked well?
-   Relationship with NWS stakeholders – generally eager to evaluate products    - Series of workshops with 3 local NWS WFO offices    - NWS WFO’s identified desired products, use & feedback led to improvements
-   Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (MEDS) Technology
-     - Cost Share with UNCW IOOS (Leonard) / USACE MORPHOS projects     - Critically need diagnostics to assess model strengths and weaknesses    - MEDS adopted use in a variety of NOAA, USACE and FEMA projects
-   Relationship with NC Floodplain Mapping program & RENCI
-     - Cost share development of 10 m bathy/topo DEM from over 27 data sets
-   Relationship with life guards in Kill Devil Hills
-     - 2008 daily rip current occurrence and rescue data, past 5 yrs rip rescue data
-   Relationship with LSU CERA & NOAA Southern Regional Climate Center
-     - Provided “expert filter” to interpret and advise about forecast products
-   Relationship between Univ Oklahoma and NOAA NSSL
-     - Connection to CI-FLOW program, QPA efforts
-     - Experience with hydrologic modeling

## Potential Benefit to Others

**Potential Benefit to Others**

- How might  your project be relevant to other regions or federal agencies?
-      - Models, AutoMEDS skill assessment tools and lessons learned highly
-        transportable to other regions.
- If so, what would be required to transfer key elements to other regions, federal agencies, and users?
-      - Model configuration for other regions, may be able to leverage other
-        agency investments (e.g., FEMA, USACE)
-      - Documentation/training
-      - Develop new/additional user relationships in other regions
- Does this project include a component to transfer or extend project results to other regions and users?  If so, please describe.
-      - Not specifically, although capabilities have already been extended
-        beyond NC coast to Gulf Coast and NW US coast.  Work is being
-        leveraged for FEMA studies in NC and mid-Atlantic states.

## Challenges

**Challenges**

- Describe potential and/or real challenges (i.e., such as institutional barriers, technical barriers, scientific barriers, personal, etc)  you are facing in accomplishing the established milestones.
-     - interfacing with the internal NWS WFO forecasting environment which is
-        separated from the outside world by a strict firewall, AWIPS format issues
-     - two-way coupling between surge model and hydrologic model
-     - occasional agency reluctance to consider new products & models
- Resolving challenges
-     - policy and software changes at NWS
-     - additional research

## Stakeholder Response

**Stakeholder Response**

- How are you engaging stakeholders in this project?
-     - workshops, meetings, conference calls, product delivery and feedback
-     - web based products
-     - NOAA Sea Grant/NSSL CI-FLOW project
- How are stakeholders responding to the project to-date?
-    - highly favorable
-    - NWS WFOs are anxious to have data products piped in house rather than available via web site access
-    - requests for system stability
- How are you tracking stakeholder satisfaction?
-    - workshops, meetings, conference calls
-    - once products have longer track record, user surveys will be conducted

## Automated Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (AutoMEDS)Further Details Jeff HansonUS Army Corps of EngineersField Research FacilityEve DevaliereUniversity of North Carolina-Chapel Hill /US Army Corps of Engineers - FRF

**Automated Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (AutoMEDS)****Further Details ****Jeff Hanson****US Army Corps of Engineers****Field Research Facility****Eve Devaliere****University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill /****US Army Corps of Engineers - FRF**

**Notes:**
 If desired, list active partners and acknowledgement

## AutoMEDS Concept

**AutoMEDS Concept**

## AutoMEDS Components

## Quasi-Operational Modeling Grids

**Quasi-Operational Modeling Grids**

- Chesapeake

- Outer Banks

- Onslow Bay

- Long Bay

**Operational Update:  **
**  ****4xday**
**Computational Grid:  **
**  ****1000 km (inner grids)**
**Output Fields:   **
**  ****Wind Speed/Direction**
**  ****Wave Height**
**  ****Wave Period**
**  ****Wave Direction**

## Wind and Wave Forecast Products

**Forecast**
**Stations**

**   ****2.5-day Forecast at each station**

**Wind and Wave Forecast Products**

**Notes:**
 As a result MORPHOS was born with a mission to...
 Initial focus – beach response
 Post-Katrina Focus – Access coastal hazards and risk for a wide variety of impacts including erosion, flood and inundation, levy overtopping, and wetlands destruction

## Tropical Storm Hanna

## AutoMEDS Results: SWAN Error Metrics 2008 to Date

**AutoMEDS Results: SWAN Error Metrics 2008 to Date**

## AutoMEDS Results: SWAN Performance 2008

- Performance Score

**Overall Performance = 0.86**

## AutoMEDS Results: Example Monthly Scatter Plot