# Presentation: 375941

## The Climate Test Bed

_**Mission **_
**To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services. **

***CFS – Climate Forecast System**
****GFS – Global Forecast System**

**CTB embraces *****the R2O and O2R paradigms***
**CTB emphasizes high profile science activities**
***CFS*/GFS** improvements  ***
***Multi-model ensembles  ***
***Climate forecast products  ***
**Competitive Grants Program **
**CTB Seminar Series**
**CPC-RISA Program**
**Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)****	**

**Joint NCEP-CPO facility @ NCEP**
**Established in 2005**
**Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research communities**

**Notes:**
Joint NCEP-CPO facility @ NCEP
Established in 2005
Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research communities

## Climate Test BedCurrently Funded Projects

**FY06**
**Using Initial tendency errors to reduce systematic errors, identify model errors, and construct stochastic parameterizations (DelSol) (****Transition: FY08****)           **
**Development of neural network emulations of model physics components for improving the computational performance of the NCEP seasonal climate forecasts (Fox-Rabinovitz) (****FY08****)**
**The Ocean Component of the NCEP ENSO CFS (McPhaden/Xue/Behringer) (****FY08****)**
**FY07**** **
**System-wide advancement of user-centric climate forecast products (Hartmann/O’Lenic) (****FY09****)**
**FY08**
**Probabilistic forecasts of extreme events and weather hazards over the United States (Jones/Gottschalck) ****(FY09****)**
**Enabling the Transition of CPC Products to GIS Format (Doty/Silva/Halpert) (****FY09****)**
**Generation and Evaluation of Long-Term Retrospective Forecasts with NCEP Climate Forecast System: Predictability of ENSO and Drought (Cane/Wang/Xue) (****FY10****)**
**Multi-Model Ensemble Climate Prediction with CCSM and CFS (Kirtman/van den Dool) (****FY10****)**
**Development of an Extended and Long-range Precipitation Prediction System over the Pacific Islands (Annamalai/Kumar) (****FY10****)**
**New Tools for North American Drought Prediction (Lyon/Kumar) (****FY10****)**

## Boards

_**Oversight Board**_
**NCEP CPC Director**
**Wayne Higgins, Chair**
**NCEP EMC Director**
**Steve Lord**
**ESRL Deputy Director**
**Randy Dole, Acting**
**GFDL Director**
**Vacant **
**IRI Director**
**Steve Zebiak**
**NCPO Representative**
**Rick Rosen**
**NASA Earth Sciences Director**
**Franco Einaudi**
**Appropriate representatives of other stakeholders (e.g. NASA Earth Sciences Director)**

_**Science Advisory Board**_
**Provide independent scientific advice, broad direction, and endorsement of ongoing and planned activities**
**T. Barnston (IRI) **
**T. Busalacchi (ESSIC, University of Maryland) - Chair **
**J. Kinter (COLA) **
**M. Harrison (UKMO)**** **
**E. Harrison (PMEL) **
**Tony Rosati (GFDL) **
**Joe Tribbia (NCAR) **
**D. Lettenmaier (University of Washington) **
**K. Redmond (DRI) **
**M. Suarez (GMAO) **

## Goal
     To accelerate evaluation of and improvements to the operational Climate Forecast System (CFS)  to enhance its use as a skillful tool in providing NCEP’s climate predictions for users to address today’s problems and plan for tomorrow 

**     ****To accelerate evaluation of and improvements to the operational Climate Forecast System (CFS)  to enhance its use as a skillful tool in providing NCEP’s climate predictions for users to address today’s problems and plan for tomorrow **

- _Strategic Priority: CFS Improvements_

**CFS V1 implemented in 2004 **
**Atmosphere & ocean DA**
**Real time coupled 9-month forecasts**
**25 years of hindcasts**
**CFS V2 (2010)**
**CFS Reanalysis & Reforecast (CFSRR) project (ongoing)**
**Coupled O-A-L-Sea Ice DA 1979-2009**
**Coupled reforecasts initialized from coupled reanalysis, 1981-2009**

**CFS Implemented**

**Focus areas for CFS Improvements**
**Dynamics**
**Physics**
**Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Land Cryosphere**

**Increases in skill of CPC official outlooks (****20% or more (O’Lenic et al 07); due in part to CFS & CTB**

## Multi-Model Ensembles

_**Goal**_
**     ****A  multi model ensemble prediction system that leverages the best national and international models for improved predictions on intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales**

_**Activities**_
**Consolidation techniques**
**Verification**
**MME Prediction System**
**IMME (NCEP,ECMWF,Meteo-France, & UKMET)**
**NMME (NCEP,GFDL,NASA,NCAR)**
**	****Collaboration with NSF, NCAR, COLA, NCEP, GFDL, and CPO (and IRI, CLIVAR in future)**

## Climate Forecast Products

_**Goal**_
**     ****To provide reliable climate forecast products that are responsive to the needs of users and incorporate state-of-the-art science and research.**
**Relationships with partners**
**Delivery of useful products  **
**Continuous flow of user requirements **
**Strong research component**

_**Activities **_
**Forecast Evaluation Tool (FET)**
**Forecast evaluation; data access and display capability**
**GIS (including in GRADS)**
**Drought (NIDIS) products**
**Extreme events products (through CPC-RISA collaboration)**

## CTB Seminar Series For 2008-2009

**Schedule of Speakers**

## CTB Progress since 4th CTB SAB Meeting

**NMME**
**Nov 17 meeting with NSF, NCAR, COLA, GSFC, GFDL, NCEP to develop a strategy**
**“****White paper” with operational and research requirements**
**Post doc at COLA to evaluate MME with GFDL & NCEP**
**Engaging external modeling community**
**Planning CFS users workshop**** **
**Routine interactions with CLIVAR, CPPA, ARCs, etc.**
**Planning post-doc at GFDL to evaluate CFS physics in GFDL models**
**Expanding CPC-RISA program to develop a user requirements process for developing climate products**
**Support for joint CPC-CBRFC-OHD proposal to develop drought monitoring & forecast products in support of NIDIS Pilot for the Upper Colorado River Basin**
**Working with WRCC to provide CFS data for use in developing vegetation stress index**

**Notes:**
Funded projects
CFS improvements
MME
Climate Forecast Products, including development using next-generation reanalyses and reforecasts
Support staff for funded projects
Computer resources
Satellite-retrieved data validations of CFS
Support for and expansion of CPC partnerships for product development
MTF
Technical and scientific support 
Facilitate interaction of grant recipients with NCEP personnel
Annual User's Workshop on CFS 
Post-doc stationed at GFDL to focus on evaluating CFS physics imported within the GFDL modeling system, comparing it with GFDL in-house alternatives