# Presentation: 346392

## IFPS and GFESuite Tech Review – an Interactive Forecast Preparation Technique

**Sept. 9 2003**

## “I decided enough is enough!  I’ll take a couple

- of months off and if I have an urge to come back
- part time, it is possible.  The lack of science being
- put into operations is disturbing, i.e., GFE and
- IFPS.  MOS is doing better than the forecasters!”
- 			                              -38-year NWS Veteran

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## National Weather Service Modernization Components

- Office Reorganization into WFOs
- Improved Satellites (GOES-NEXT)
- Doppler Radar (NEXRAD)
- New Forecaster Workstations (D2D)
**New Forecast Paradigm (IFPS/GFESuite)**
**New Forecast Products (National Digital Forecast Database - NDFD)**

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## What is IFPS/GFESuite?

- An interactive graphical forecast preparation system for producing routine forecast products in various formats.
- Currently in operational use by all NWS WFOs.
- Data source for the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Paradigm Shift: From Typing Text to Interacting with Grids

- Pre-IFP Technique

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## How does IFPS/GFESuite work?

- A 7-day digital forecast database is established at each WFO
- Forecasters interactively modify the contents of the database according to the latest observations and model guidance.
- NWS text, tabular, voice, and graphical products are generated from the database.
- The database itself is provided as an NWS product to customers and partners.

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Differences between IFPS and GFESuite

- IFPS: operational system in NWS, consisting of components from FSL and MDL
- GFESuite: major component of IFPS, developed by FSL, provided to NWS.

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Components of GFESuite

- D2D
- AWIPS
- Model
- Data

- Spatial
- Editor

- Temporal Editor

- Grid Manager

- GFE Editors

- Products

- Ingest/DB

*Strictly uses grid approach*

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## GFESuite Development Approach

## GFESuite Development Approach (Rapid Prototyping Project)

- Quick turnaround of software
- 6-8 week cycle typical
- Frequent interaction with forecasters
- Workshops
- Listservers
- Software evaluations
- Mature software delivered to NWS for nationwide IFPS deployment

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## GFESuite Architecture

- Languages and Systems
- Python / C++
- Linux / PCs
- Very flexible and tailorable
- Smart Tools, Initialization, Database
- Incorporation of local models
- Product Generation
- FSL provides infrastructure, field extends system capabilities to meet their needs

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## GFESuite Staff

- Current staff level:  3.8 + 1
- Responsible for:
- Software development
- User and System Documentation
- Training
- Testing, Quality Assurance
- Software Packaging
- Field Support

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Methodology of Forecasting on Grids

## What is being Forecast?

- Temporal resolution: 1-3 hours
- Public weather elements:
- T, Td, RH, Sky, PoP, Wx, QPF, Wind, MaxT, MinT, WindGust, SnowAmt, ...
- Fire Weather elements:
- LAL, Haines Index, Transport Wind, Mixing Height, Stability, CWR, InvBurnOffTemp
- Marine weather elements:
- Icing, Wave Height, Swell Height/Direction/Period
- Local Custom weather elements

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## What is being Produced?

- Text Products
- Marine, Fire Weather, Public, Custom
- Narratives, Tables, Custom
- Graphical Products
- Available on local web pages
- Gridded Products
- Available through the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) in GRIB2 format

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Three-Step Forecast Process

- Initialize
- Forecast
- Database

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Forecast Methodology

- Derivation of Surface Fields from Models

## Overview

- What
- Provides a first guess for the forecast
- Derives surface weather conditions from model fields
- Why
- Forecasts require surface elements not available in model
- Forecasts require higher spatial/temporal resolution than available from model

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Derived Surface Temperature

- Raw model
- Data at 80km

- 2 meter Temperature

- Surface Temperature

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Forecast Methodology

- Preparing and Editing the Forecast

## Forecast Process

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Forecast Process

*Set Up*

*Edit*

*Generate*
*Products*

- Derive Surface Elements From Models

- Review Previous Forecast

- Simple Tools

**Smart Tools**

- Consistency Checking

- Publish to Official Database

- Graphics

- Text

- Digital Data

- Copy Selected Forecast Grids From Derived

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Smart Tools

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Smart Tools

- Forecast Grids

- Numerical Models
- Observations
- Topography

- Smart Tool

- Modify

**def Fog_SmartTool(T, Td, Wind, Wx):**
**   **
-     if T  Td < 2  and Wind < 4:
-         Wx = “Fog”
**    ****return Wx**

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Forecast Methodology

- Coordination/Collaboration

## Coordination between WFOs

- Coordination between WFOs is more complicated when forecasting on grids.
- GFESuite provides Intersite Coordination techniques to view proposed forecasts from adjacent sites.
- Chat Software is used to communicate intent between offices. (commercial s/w)

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Intersite Coordination on GFE

- Forecast Area
- Of
- Responsibility

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Chat Room Sample(12Planet)

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Forecast Methodology

- GFESuite Product Production

## GFESuite Product Suite

- Gridded
- Database

*Tiered*
*Product*
*Suite*

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## High-end users: Grids

- National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
- Data into local models, e.g., fire suppression models
- Detailed data for advanced users, e.g., power companies

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Graphical images for the local WFO

- Graphics and images can be overlaid
- For local office web pages.
- Generated directly from the grids.
- Configurable.

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Experimental Meteograms

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Zone Forecast Product (ZFP)

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview

## Area Forecast Matrix (AFM)

- IFPS/GFESuite Overview