# Presentation: 743889

## Designs for Cycle 7 of the National Survey of Family Growth

*A report to the NCHS Board of Scientific Counselors, Sept 10, 2004*
- William D. Mosher, PhD, NSFG team leader
_*K: 004BSCtalkV2.ppt*_

## Social factors

**Social factors**

**Intercourse variables:**

**Intermediate variables**

- Timing of first intercourse
- Percent of women who
-   ever had intercourse
- Time spent in marriage
-   (separation, divorce)
- Frequency of intercourse

**Fertility**
**(live**
**births)**

- Race/ethnicity
- Religion
- Work
- Education
- Income
- Access to
-   health care
- Family
-   background
- Community
-   environment
-   (economic,
-   social, etc.)

**Pregnancy outcome**
**(gestation) variables:**

- Miscarriage and
-   stillbirth
- Induced abortion

**Conception variables:**

- Contraceptive use
- Sterilization
- Infertility

## NSFG History in Brief

| Cycle | Year | Scope | Number of Interviews | Over-Samples | Average Length | Incentive Payment |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | 1973 | Ever-Married Women 15-44 | 9,797 | Black Women | 60 Minutes | No |
| 2 | 1976 | Ever-Married Women 15-44 | 8,611 | Black Women | 60 Minutes | No |
| 3 | 1982 | All Women 15-44 | 7,969 | Black Women Teens | 60 Minutes | No |
| 4 | 1988 | All Women 15-44 | 8,450 | Black Women | 70 Minutes | No |
| 5 | 1995 | All Women 15-44 | 10,847 | Black Women Hispanic Women | 100 Minutes | $20 |
| 6 | 2002 | Women 15-44 (n=7,643)
Men 15-44 (n=4,928) | 12,571
 | Blacks
Hispanics
Teens | F=85 Min
M=60 Min | $40 |

## NSFG Web site

- _[www.cdc.gov/nchs/nsfg.htm](http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nsfg.htm)__ has:_
- Description of the NSFG
- The 1995 and 2002 Questionnaires
- PDF Files of all our NCHS reports
- Bibliographies of 360+ Reports & Journal articles using NSFG data files.
- Info on how to contact us to obtain data files.

## FUNDING The NSFG enjoys broad support from 10 programs within the Department of Health and Human Services 

***National Center for Health Statistics, CDC ***
***NIH’s NICHD***
***Office of Population Affairs***
- Division of HIV-AIDS Prevention, CDC
- Division of Reproductive Health, CDC
- Office of Women’s Health, CDC
- OASPE:  The Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning & Evaluation
- Children’s Bureau, ACF (Administration for Children and Families)
- Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, ACF
- Office of Child Support Enforcement, ACF

## How the 2002 NSFG was done

- Contractor: Institute for Social Research (ISR), University of Michigan.
- Interviews in person with laptop computers
- Interviews in both English and Spanish
- Over-samples: Blacks, Hispanics, 15-24’s
- Informed Consent:
- Signed consent for adults (18-44)
- Signed assent and signed parental consent for minors (15-17 years of age)

## Average length of interview, NSFG Cycle 6 (2002)

|  | Male  | Female |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Interviewer-Administered CAPI | 40 minutes | 65 minutes |
| Self-Administered Audio CASI | 20 minutes | 20 minutes |
| TOTAL  | 60 minutes | 85 minutes |

## 2002 Female Questionnaire

- Age, race, education, family background
- Pregnancy history & adoption
- Marital & cohabitation history; sexual partner history for last 12 months
- Sterilization operations; fecundity impairments
- Contraceptive history; methods ever used, last 3 years; wanted & unwanted births.
- Birth control/family planning services in last 12 months
- Births expected in the future
- Infertility services; HIV tests.
- Health Insurance; Religion; Child Care; Attitudes

## 2002 Male Questionnaire

- (Same as female Section A)
- Ever/never had sex; vasectomy; infertility
- _Births, contraception, and when married or lived together_:
- C.		-with Current wife or cohabiting partner
-     -with Sexual partners in last 12 months; first partner ever
-     -with Former wives & first cohabiting partner
- F.	    -births and pregnancies fathered with other women
- G.	Activities with his children. Separate series for kids he
- 		(a) lives with (b) does not live with.
- Births expected in the future.
- Health conditions; use of health care, HIV testing
- Religion; military service; work; attitudes.

## Self-administered data in the 2002 NSFG (for both males and females)

_*Content Includes*_*:*
- Height and weight
- Alcohol, smoking, and drug use in last 12 months;
- Oral and anal sex with same sex partners;
- Vaginal, oral, and anal sex with opposite sex partners;
- Non-voluntary sex;
- Sexual orientation and attraction;
- STD history

## A Brief Time-Line for Cycle 6

- 1997			Initial planning meetings; small contracts
- 1997-99		Wrote questionnaires & contract
- 1999			Awarded contract
- 2000			Programmed & tested questionnaires
- 2001			Pretest: 615 interviews
- 2001-2		Made revisions for main study
- 2002-3		Conducted main study;12,571 interviews
- 2003-4		Edited data; Prepared file documentation
**2004****	****	****	**Disclosure review;** release public use ****	****	****	****	****file and first reports**

## NSFG Highlights for the next few months

- NSFG Cycle 6 Data file released on CD-ROM
- 	-*Documentation will be web-based (interactive) for the first time.*
*Rpt on Contraception & FPS**	**October*
*Report on Teens **	**	**	**Nov 1*
*Report on Women  **	**	**December *
*Report on Men       **	**	**February 2005 *
- Tables for _Healthy People 2010_ FP Review (Nov 17, 2004)
- Series 1 & 2 (methodology) reports: Jan & March

## Limitations of Current NSFG Design 

- Data are not collected often enough;
- 	6-7 years between surveys is too long.
- More frequent data would be better for:
- Current policy issues (e.g., welfare reform; Marriage Initiatives; teen pregnancy; new contraceptive methods).
- More recent data are always more persuasive.
- Attracting new funders to support the survey.

## July-Dec 2003: U of Michigan (ISR) did formal cost estimates for 3 designs for Cycle 7

_*CONSTRAINT:*_
- 	Each design had to cost about what we are spending now:  $16.0 million over 5-6 fiscal years---i.e., about
- 	$3 million a year into the NSFG contract.
_*Basic strategy*_*:**  **Compare the present design to designs that *reduce spending on re-programming the questionnaires, developing materials, & training new people.  Put that money into interviewing.  Do the interviewing as efficiently as possible.

## We compared these designs

- _1-year or 12-month or “traditional” design_:
- 	Do all interviews in 12 months in 120 major areas (Primary Sampling Units  or PSU’s).
- _Continuous interviewing_:
- 	Interview about 4,350 people every year.
- 	Use 33 PSU’s each year.  About 60 interviewers.    $16.0 million survey is done in 4 years.
- NOTE: Sample size yields on next slide are conservative. We assumed that Interviewer Productivity would be lower than in Cycle 6!

## Sample size yields for the 2 designs

|  | 1 year (Cycle 6)      design | Continuous each year | Continuous after 4 years |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TOTAL | 12,100 | 4,350 |  17,400 |
| 15-19 |     2,200 |      800 |      3,100 |
| Male |     4,700 |   1,700 |      6,800 |
| Female |     7,400 |   2,650 |    10,600 |
|  |  |  |  |
| Hispanic |     2,600 |      950 |     3,800 |
| Black |     2,400 |      850 |     3,400 |

## Usual Design, 2020

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- 2002 2003 2004  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009  2010 2011 2012  2013 2014 2015 2016 2017  2018 2019 2020

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- Assume 1% decline per year

## 2020 – Continuous, 2 year average

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- 2002 2003 2004  2005 2006 2007 2008  2009 2010 2011 2012  2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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- Assumes 1% decline per year

## Usual Design, 2020

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- 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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- Assumes increase of 1.5 percentage points per year

## Summary Comparison of the designs assuming the budget stays fixed

- _The 1-year (“traditional”) design_: Sample yield =12,100.
- 	We cannot afford to do the interviewing until 2008.
- 	Data available late 2009 or early 2010. (too late for HP 2010)
- 	We do not recommend waiting this long.
- 2.	_Continuous interviewing_: Sample yield =  17,400.
- 	Data in time for HP 2010, based on 8,700 interviews.
- 	Affordable:  We could interview indefinitely at this pace
- 	_if_ we stay within the projected budget.
- March 19, 2004:
- The NSFG Funding Agency Representatives agreed  to move the NSFG to continuous interviewing.

## Preparing  for Continuous Interviewing

- Finish Cycle 6 data files & initial reports	Jan, 2005
- Finalize Questionnaires & spec	      Feb 1-May 31, 2005
- Questionnaire is final		      June 1, 2005
- Submit to IRB & OMB		      June 1, 2005
- 	*(CAPI programming & testing)*
- IRB & OMB Clearance 		      January, 2006
- Pretest Interviewing (n=300)	      March-April, 2006
*Main Study Interviewing begins**	**      June 2006*

## Design and Content Issues

- Increasing the age range of the NSFG to 15-54 to improve data on marriage and divorce, cohabitation, child care, father involvement, infertility treatment, etc.
- Increasing sample size, especially for teenagers.
- 3.	State data (e.g, NY, California, Florida, Texas)
- 4.	Collecting data on men in prisons and the military.
- 5.	Improving data on the consistency and effectiveness of contraceptive use.
- 6.	Improving pregnancy (abortion) reporting.

##  Survey Management Issues

- Getting reports out more frequently. (How often?)
- Getting data files out more frequently.  (How often?)
- Managing costs of fieldwork: especially gated communities, locked buildings, answering machines, and other contact problems.
- How to handle requests for new content (without breaking the schedule or budget)
- Handling disclosure review of small (annual?) data sets.
- Setting priorities with a small staff.

## Questions?

-   What questions do you have?