# Presentation: 712699

## Living With a Star Program

**Madhulika Guhathakurta**
**Living With a Star Program Scientist**
**LWS Radiation Belt Workshop**
**UMD**
**October 5-6, 2004**

**Living With a Star Program**

**Develop the scientific understanding necessary to effectively  address those    **
**aspects of the connected Sun-Earth system that directly affect life and society.**

**Notes:**
Define SEC

## Sun-Earth as a Connected System

***Sun-Earth as a Connected System***

***•******	******How and why does the Sun vary?***
***	******How does the Earth respond?***
***•******	******What are the impacts on ******life and society******?***

_**Varying**_**     ****	****         **
**•   ****Radiation**
**•   ****Solar Wind **
**•   ****Energetic Particles**
**Driven by 11 Year Solar Cycle**

***Planet***

***Variable Star***

**98        00        02        04        06        08        10        12        14        16        18   **

**Solar Flares**

**Geomagnetic Storms**

- Year

**Notes:**
We live in the extended atmosphere of an active star.  While sunlight enables and sustains life, the Sun’s variability produces streams of high-energy particles and radiation that can affect life.

Under the protective shield of a magnetic field and atmosphere, the Earth is an island in the Universe where life has developed and flourished.  The origins and fate of life on Earth are intimately connected to the way the Earth responds to the Sun’s variations.  Understanding the changing Sun and its effects on the Solar System, life, and society is the goal of the Sun-Earth Connection Theme.

## The Vision for Exploration:Moon, Mars and Beyond...

**The Vision for Exploration:****Moon, Mars and Beyond...**

**Implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program ****to explore the solar system and beyond**
**Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations (****enables****)**
**Develop the**** innovative technologies****, ****knowledge****, and infrastructure ****both to explore and support decisions**** about the destinations for human exploration **
**Promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific****, security, and ****economic interests**

## Sun-Solar System as a Connected System

***Sun-Solar System as a Connected System***

***•******	******How and why does the Sun vary?***
***	******How does the Earth ******and Planets****** respond?***
***•******	******What are the impacts on ******life and society******?***

_**Varying**_**     ****	****         **
**•   ****Radiation**
**•   ****Solar Wind **
**•   ****Energetic Particles**
**Driven by 11 Year Solar Cycle**

***Planet***

***Variable Star***

**98        00        02        04        06        08        10        12        14        16        18   **

**Solar Flares**

**Geomagnetic Storms**

- Year

**Notes:**
We live in the extended atmosphere of an active star.  While sunlight enables and sustains life, the Sun’s variability produces streams of high-energy particles and radiation that can affect life.

Under the protective shield of a magnetic field and atmosphere, the Earth is an island in the Universe where life has developed and flourished.  The origins and fate of life on Earth are intimately connected to the way the Earth responds to the Sun’s variations.  Understanding the changing Sun and its effects on the Solar System, life, and society is the goal of the Sun-Earth Connection Theme.

## Science Mission Directorate

**NASA Management**
**Office**

**Administrative**
**Processes**

**Education Officer**

**NASA Centers**

**Business**
**Management**

**Solar**
**System**

**Sun-Earth**
**System**

**Mission & Systems Management**

**•****	****Leadership Council**
**•****	****Science Management Council**
**•****	****Program Management Council**
**•****	****Operations Council**

_***Councils***_

**Associate Administrator (AA)**

**Deputy AA**

**Deputy AA**
**For**** Management**

**Deputy AA**
**For Programs**

*Mission Support*

*Mission *

*Mission Enabling*

**Universe**

**JPL**

**ARC**

**GSFC**

**AAA/Strategy, Policy & Int’l**
**AAA/Science**
**AAA/Technology**
**AAA/Exploration Mission Int. **
**Sr. Policy Advisor**

## Universe

- Division Technologist

_**Universe**_

- July 28, 2004

- Director
- Deputy Director

- Division Support

- Operating Missions
- MO+DA Lead

- Flight Programs
- Director

- Research & Analysis
- R&A Lead

## Solar System Exploration

-        Planetary Protection

-      Planetary Data System

- Outer Planets Program Scientist

-      Research & Analysis

-      Small, Med, & Flagship Class

-       Flight Programs

-           Mars Exploration Program

- Robotic Lunar Exploration
-             Program

- SSE Director

- SSE Deputy Director

## Sun Earth System

- _Sun Earth System_

- .

-   Research  Sciences

- Director

- Applied Sciences

-      Director

- Flight Programs

-            Director

- Director

-  Deputy Director

## Mission & Systems Management

**Director **
**Deputy Director**

_**Mission & Systems Management**_

## Business Management

- Budget
- Integration

- Universe

- Director

- Deputy Director

- Supervisory Program Analyst

- Solar System

- Sun-Earth

- Institutions

- Assessment

## ADMINISTRATIVE PROCESSES

- DIRECTOR
- ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR

- OUTREACH/EVENTS

- ADMINISTRATIVE
- OVERSIGHT/PROCESSES

## NASA MANAGEMENT OFFICE - JPL

- DIRECTOR
- DEPUTY DIRECTOR

- CONTRACTS MANAGEMENT

- ADMINISTRATIVE
- OVERSIGHT

## LWS Connectivity

**LWS Connectivity**

**Notes:**
Also known as solar sentinels or inner heliospheric sentinels

## LWS is a Systems Approach 

**LWS focuses not on any one region of space, but rather on our Sun Earth Region as one system.**

**A very important part is the study of the connection between the regions and how one drives a response in another.**

## An Example of Space Weather Modeling

**Active Regions**

**SEP**

**MI Coupling**

**Ring Current**

**Geocorona and Exosphere**

**Radiation Belts**

**Plasmasphere**

## Science Application as the Focus

**Science Application as the Focus**

**The primary goal of the LWS Program is to develop the understanding necessary to enable the U.S. to effectively address those aspects of the Connected Sun-Earth system that directly affect life and society.**
- Space Weather
- Sun-Climate Connection

## LWS Science Planning

- LWS Science Architecture Team

- LWS SDO MDT

- LWS Geospace MDT

- TR&T MDT

-                            SECAS

- SP STDT

- N
- A
- S
- A
- H
- Q

- LWS MOWG

- SS STDT

## LWS:  Develop the scientific understanding necessary to effectively  address those    aspects of the connected Sun-Earth system that directly affect life and society.

**Solar Dynamics Observatory**
-       SDO Mission and LWS program was confirmed in June, 2004.
**Geospace Missions**
-      AO while delayed in near-term is in the process of being developed.
**Sentinels  ****      ****     **
**     ****Strategy panel report is out. Definition team to started. **
**            ****A task group was formed to look at agency’s need for **
**            ****prediction of radiation environment/space climate chaired by Golightly **
**            ****(report due in Fall, 2004).**
**Solar Probe Mission**
-     Science Technology and Definition Team kick-off meeting took place on
-     March 3-4, 2004, 2nd meeting on July 6-7, 2004 and 3rd meeting 23-24 Sept.
**Space Environment Testbeds**
**   ****Looking for partners to ride. Early results from data mining effort are **
**   ****already in use by JWST engineers.**
**Targeted Research & Technology Program**
-      TR&T Steering Committee formed. TR&T goals and priorities set by SC.
-      (Report out in Spring of 2004). Sun climate task group report released during Fall AGU. FY05 proposals due on 10th Sept., 2004.
**Partnership at National and International Level **
**               ****Being pursued**

## Geospace Missions Status

**The status of the LWS/Geospace Missions remains as follows:**
- -  We are presently in pre-formulation for the Geospace Core Missions (2-IT, 2-RB and an ionosphere-thermosphere imager (FUV) on a Mission of Opportunity).
- -  The Program office and Headquarters will continue to seek partners (both national and international) in order to reduce cost as well as advance the schedule.
- Announcements of Opportunity are in preparation that reflect the above strategy.

## Heliospheric Science Objectives

**Sentinels Science Focus Areas**

**Societal Impacts**

**Heliospheric Science Objectives**

## LWS:  Develop the scientific understanding necessary to effectively  address those    aspects of the connected Sun-Earth system that directly affect life and society.

**Solar Dynamics Observatory**
-       SDO Mission and LWS program was confirmed in June, 2004.
**Geospace Missions**
-      AO while delayed in near-term is in the process of being developed.
**Sentinels  ****      ****     **
**     ****Strategy panel report will be available in August. Definition team to start **
**            ****in late spring. A task group is formed to look at agency’s need for **
**            ****prediction of radiation environment/space climate chaired by Golightly **
**            ****(report due in Summer, 2004).**
**Solar Probe Mission**
-     Science Technology and Definition Team kick-off meeting took place on
-     March 3-4, 2004, 2nd meeting on July 6-7, 2004.
**Space Environment Testbeds**
**   ****Looking for partners to ride. Early results from data mining effort are **
**   ****already in use by JWST engineers.**
**Targeted Research & Technology Program**
-      TR&T Steering Committee formed. TR&T goals and priorities set by SC.
-      (Report out in Spring of 2004). Sun climate task group report released during Fall AGU. Results of TR&T selection will be announced today.
**Partnership at National and International Level **
**               ****Being pursued**

## LWS-Related Missions 

**             ****92****        94        96        98        00        02        04        06        08        10        12       14        16        18           **

**Year**

**TRACE**

* *

***Solar Max***

***Solar Max***

**ACE**

**GEOTAIL**

**POLAR**

**TIMED**

**SAMPEX**

**WIND**

**FAST**

**IMAGE**

**CLUSTER**

**C/****NOFS**

**SOLAR-B**

**SDO**

**STEREO**

**MMS**

***RBSP***

**EPOP**

**COSMIC**

***I-TSP***

**LWS-Related Missions **

**EQUARS**

**DMSP/POES                                                  NPOESS**

***Solar Max***

**TWINS**

**GPS**

**SOHO**

**RHESSI**

**ULYSSES**

**THEMIS**

**ACRIMSAT/SORCE**

**CORONAS-F**

**CORONAS-PHOTON**

**PICARD**

**SST**

**SMEI**

**L5**

**SOLAR ORBITER**

**INTERHELIOPROBE**

**SOLAR SENTINELS**

**GEOSTORM**

**DOUBLE STAR**

**RAVENS**

**INTERBALL/PROGNOZ**

**SWISE-1**

**AIM**

**SWARM**

**MESSENGER**

**BEPPI-COLUMBO**

**LANL/GOES**

**ROCSAT-2**

**FUV IMAGER**

**INDEX**

**VULKAN**

**SOLAR**

**HELIOSPHERIC**

**MAGNETOSPHERIC**

**IONOSPHERIC**

## LWS & Exploration (Geospace)

**Radiation effects will be a significant part of any space exploration program. There are three main areas where I see LWS geospace might contribute**
**Manned space flight**
***The biggest risk is in interplanetary space (or Lunar surface) from SEPs (Solar energetic particles)***
**There is also significant risk from the terrestrial radiation belts (and south atlantic anomaly if travel to the moon or Mars is staged and starts with a stay in LEO (e.g. at the international space station or similar facility)**
**Planetary exploration**
**If we want to understand the radiation environments at other planets and **
**predict the potential effects there then we need to use the Earth’s radiation belts as a local laboratory. Among the questions are:**
**What do we expect at other planets?**
**How do we scale what we observe if we don’t understand the dynamics**
**Space Infrastructure**
**Understanding the impacts of the Earth’s radiation environment on space infrastructure will be increasingly important as mankind moves even more aggressively into space.**
**Space infrastructure will have to increase and will be vulnerable to radiation belt effects**
**Space exploration is not completely uncoupled from the increasing DOD programs in Military Space, Space Control, and Space Situational Awareness. LWS geospace has increasing relevance to those increasingly important national programs.**

## LWS & Exploration (cont.)

**1)   ****Near-term: e.g. assets which can be readily adapted to fit more of NASA's space weather needs. Missions currently taking measurements (SOHO, ACE, Ulysses), missions which can be mobilized for space weather usage with minimal effort (Cassini and other planetary programs), models which can be easily implemented, and modifying observing and reporting structures to suit the broader needs of NASA.**
**2)   Intermediate term: e.g. focus on technology development, such as radiation-hard components,  which will allow us more independence and reliability in space; focus on gathering more information regarding the exposure and effects of exposure of various types  of radiation on humans.**
**3)   Long-term: e.g. identifying current plans and roadmaps which can be synergized to better suit NASA's needs. **

## Earth’s Radiation Belts (1)

_**Problem addressed**_**: Transits of moon and Mars bound vehicles through the radiation belts**
**Contributes to radiation exposure to astronauts (?)**
**Affects the reliability of hardware**
_**Impact if not addressed**_**: Large safety margins are used to account for the uncertainty in the particle energy spectra predictions which translate to increased mass.**
_**Current capability**_**: Design models of the Earth’s radiation belts (AE-8 and AP-8) predict the trapped radiation environment over long-term averages (several years).**
**The models do not have worst case information or directionality.**
**The models do not have error bars or statistical information.**
_**Required capability**_**: Models of the radiation belts that –**
**Include dependence on solar activity parameters**
**Take advantage of recent progress in understanding particle loss and acceleration processes and the effects of solar storms.**
_**Assets**_**:**
**Prototype models – TPM-1 (TIROS, CRRES), POLE (LANL)**
**Data - SAMPEX, POLAR, LANL s/c, ICO, CRRES, TIROS, ESA S-REM monitors**

## Earth’s Radiation Belts (2)

**Question:  Are forecasts of radiation belt particles levels required for astronaut protection?**

## The LWS Geospace Program

**Core Investigations:**
**RBSP/Radiation Belt Storm Probes (2012)**
- Two spacecraft, nearly identical, low- inclination elliptical (500 km  5.5 *R*E) orbits
- First spacecraft fully instrumented),second with subset of instruments
- Radiation belt electrons, magnetic field, ring current particles, AC magnetic fields, DC/AC electric fields
**ITSP/Ionosphere-Thermosphere Storm Probes (2010)**
- Two spacecraft in nearly identical, 60inclination, circular orbits at a nominal altitude of 450 km
- Both spacecraft identically instrumented
- DC electric fields (ion drifts), neutral wind vector, plasma density/fluctuations, plasma density altitude profile, scintillations, neutral density/composition/temperature

**Measurement Strategy:**
- Concurrent observations by RBSP, ITSP, and the SDO EUV imager, with global mid-latitude UV imaging on mission of opportunity.

**Science:**
- •Acceleration, global distribution, and variability of the radiation belt particles that produce harsh environments for spacecraft and humans
- •Mid-latitude ionospheric variability and irregularities that affect communications, navigation, and radar systems

- Radiation Belt Storm Probes

- Ionosphere / Thermosphere Storm Probes

**Geospace Missions Network**

**Missions of Opportunity**
- FUV for O/N2 and Ne2 - GEO

- EUV on SDO - GEO

## Geospace Science Priorities 

- 1:	**Acceleration, global distribution, and variability of energetic electrons and ions in the inner magnetosphere.**** **
- 2A:	Global-scale behavior of the ionospheric electron density.
- 2B:	Small scale ionospheric density irregularities
- 3A:	Improved specification of the neutral density in the thermosphere.
- 3B:	Distribution of electric currents connecting the magnetosphere to the ionosphere.
- 4:	Relationship between very energetic electron and ion fluxes in the interplanetary medium and their fluxes at low altitude
- 5:	Geospace drivers that potentially affect ozone and climate.

**Radiation Belts: Top Priority for Geospace**

## Radiation Belt Priority Observables

_**Priority Objective**_**:****  Characterize and understand the acceleration, global distribution, and variability of the radiation belt electrons and ions that produce harsh environments for spacecraft and humans.**

- Which physical processes produce radiation belt enhancements?
- Direct convection
- Explosive inductive electric fields
- ULF waves and classical diffusion
- Interplanetary shocks.
- Local, invariant-violating acceleration processes

- _Measurements:_
- Simultaneous particle intensities at various _radial distant separations_
- Simultaneous _multi-point_ phase space densities (full pitch angles and **B**)
- Global convection/transient **E,** and **E** and **B** waves
- Simultaneous _multipoint_ **B** for characterizing dynamic configuration
- Ring current ion composition and intensity

## Radiation Belt Priority Observables

- What are the dominant mechanisms for relativistic electron loss?
- Magnetopause shadowing.
- Current sheet scattering
- Plasma Wave scattering
- Coulomb scattering

- _Measurements:_
- Electron pitch angle distributions near loss cone
- Low-altitude electron precipitation losses and compare with equator
- Power spectral intensity of relevant plasma waves

- What role does the ring current play in radiation belt creation and loss?
- Time history, locus, composition, and energy of ring current ions
- Role of ring current in storm-time waves affecting radiation particles
- Role of the ring current on global electric and magnetic fields that cause radiation belt transport.

- _Measurements:_
- In-situ ring current ion composition, pressure gradients
- Global distribution and evolution of ring current ion composition, energy density and pressure gradients

## Implementation Radiation Belt Storm Probes

**Description**:  Two spacecraft in near equatorial, elliptical orbits (~500 km x 4.5 RE altitude)
**Mission Life**: 2 years with optional  3-yr extension
**Launch Date:**  2010** **
**Space Access**:  One launch on  Medium Class ELV

**Measurements,:**
- 20 keV - 20 MeV electrons
**B** and ULF waves
- DC E-field
- B and E VLF waves
- ring current ions (20-600keV), composition
**plus, if feasible,**
- energetic protons (1-200 MeV)
- 0.01 – 20 keV ions and electrons

**plus, if feasible:**
- ENA ring current imager on appropriate polar, high altitude, spacecraft
- and, on platform in LEO orbit,
- precipitating energetic electrons           (20 keV – 20 MeV)
- proton monitor (1-200 MeV)

## Targetted Research and Technology Program (TR&T)

**1.  Focused research program.   Results available on dedicated WWW site (lws-trt.gsfc.nasa.gov).  Examples follow.**
**2.  Sponsors workshops like this one.**
**3.  Long term goal: End-to-End (Sun-to-Mud) models.  Short term goals set by steering committee with rotating membership.**
**4.  Resource for those seeking to transition results to operations- welcome contacts with and input from the user community.**

## RB Objective in Current Round of TR&T Proposals

**Determine the mechanisms responsible for the formation and loss of new radiation belts in the slot region in response to geo-effective solar wind structures. **
**Proposals under review- research **_**teams**_** will be formed after selection.**

## International Living With a Star (ILWS):Seeking Synergies

**ORBITALS (Outer radiation belt injection, transport acceleration and loss satellite).**
**	****A small satellite proposed as a Canadian mission contribution to the ILWS program. ORBITALS is an inner magnetosphere mission which targets the dynamics of the radiation belts, plasmasphere and ring current. The ORBITALS is currently undergoing a Canadian Space Agency (CSA) funded Concept Study, which will be completed by March 31st 2005.  PI is Dr. Ian Mann (Physics Dept., U. Alberta).**

## International Living With a Star (ILWS):Seeking Synergies

**SWISE (Space Winds and Storm Exploration) Program (PRC)**
**	****Three spacecraft in 65° inclination, simultaneous launch:**
**	****	****SWISE-1 (IT, 300-700 km)**
**	****	****SWISE-2 (RB, 700 km - 7.5 R****E****)**
**	****	****SWISE-3 (Solar Wind, 2- 22 R****E****)**
**	****Phase A report to be finished in 2005.**

## Modeling the Long-Term Variations of Energetic Trapped Protons  (S. Huston, PI)

## Modeling the Long-Term Variations of Energetic Trapped Protons

**The previous figure shows contours of constant proton flux (> 80 MeV) measured by the POES satellites at 800 km altitude, at two points in the solar cycle: June 1986 (solar minimum) and April 1991 (solar maximum).  Note that protons move to lower values of *****R******mod***** (i.e., closer to Earth) at solar minimum.  Also note the appearance of strong secondary belts at log(*****K*****) ~ 3.8 and 4.2 in the April 1991 data.**
**The *****K*****, *****R******mod***** coordinate system used has the advantage that it is based on adiabatic invariants, and thus accounts for secular changes in the Earth’s magnetic fields.**
**The POES data are being gridded and smoothed and will be combined with similar data from CRRES and SAMPEX (SAMPEX data are being processed by BIRA in Belgium).**
**The resulting data base will extend from energies of approximately 1 MeV to over 300 MeV and will permit the development of improved specification models of the trapped proton environment.**
**Once the different data sets are combined as described above, we plan to use physics-based models to extrapolate the low-altitude, high energy data to higher altitudes, thus providing a specification model into the heart of the inner zone.**

## Prediction of Outer Radiation Belt Electrons Based on  Solar Wind Measurements (PI Li)

**PE=56%, LC=0.75**

**PE=53%, LC=0.83**

**Date of 1998**

**Prediction of Outer Radiation Belt Electrons Based on  Solar Wind Measurements (****PI Li****)**

## Science Nugget from NAG5-10850:Superposed Epoch Analysis of Ring Current Geoeffectiveness

**PI: Michael Liemohn**
**Institution: University of Michigan**
**Key Personnel:**
**Jichun Zhang, U-M grad student**
**Michelle Thomsen, LANL**

## Intense Storms vs. Moderate Storms @ Solar Maximum

**Intense Storms vs. Moderate Storms @ Solar Maximum**

## Comparison

- Similarities
**A geomagnetic storm is driven by sufficiently intense and long-lasting southward IMF [*****Gonzalez et al.,***** 1994]. **
**During geomagnetic storms, the density of hot ions at geosynchronous orbit vary with time and local time, peaking near dawn side near Dst*****min**
**The temperature of hot-ions at geosynchronous orbit vary with time and local time, with a minimum in the dawn/noon sector.**

- Differences
**Intense Storms with average Dst*********min****= -169 nT are driven by B****z**** < -10nT lasting for >3 hrs; moderate storms with average Dst*********min****= -67 nT are driven by B****z**** < -5nT lasting for >2 hrs.**
**At solar maximum, hot ions at geosynchronous orbit are denser during intense storms than during moderate storms.**
**At solar maximum, hot ions at geosynchronous orbit are hotter during moderate storms than during intense storms, especially around dusk.**

**Punchline:** Storm intensity increases because of...
- A stronger convective flow (deeper injection)
- A denser plasma sheet (more source particles)
- A colder plasma sheet (less B-drift, deeper injection)