# Presentation: 149508

## Tennessee Valley Air Quality Forecasting Partnership

- Jennifer Call, Bill Parkhurst, Pam Frazier-Barkey, Rob Brawner, Mike Goldstein, Kathy Jones, Lynne Liddington, and Jim Renfro

## Forecasting Partners

- Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) Division of Air Pollution Control
*Memphis-Shelby County Health Department*
- Chattanooga-Hamilton County Air Pollution Control Bureau
*Knox County Air Quality Management*
- Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Air Quality Branch
*Alabama Department of Environmental Management*
- City of Huntsville Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management

## Cooperative Regional “Firsts”

- Regional Air Quality Trend Monitoring Network (1968-85)
- Look Rock Visibility Monitoring (1980)
- Piney Woods Toxics Study (1982-85)
- National Acid Deposition Program (1984-present)
- Middle Tennessee Ozone Study (1988-91)
- Southern Oxidants Study (1992, 94, 95, 99)
- Economic Development Air Quality Monitoring Program (1993-present)
- Partnership PM2.5 Network (1997-2000)
- Air Quality Forecasting (2001-present)
- Crittenden County Ozone Study (2004-present)

## Background Information

- In 2001, TDEC asked TVA for assistance with air quality forecasting, therefore TVA developed regression-based forecast models for Nashville and Tri-Cities using historical monitoring and meteorological forecast data and provided the forecasts results to TDEC for posting on AIRNow.
- In 2002, TVA updated existing ozone forecast models and developed new models for Memphis, Chattanooga, Knoxville and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.  Again, TVA provided the results to various partners for official posting on AIRNow.

## Background Information (cont.)

- In 2003, TVA updated all ozone forecast models and provided the models and the daily meteorological forecast information to the forecasting partners so they could assume full responsibility of making and reporting forecast results with TVA’s technical support.
- During the last quarter of 2003, TVA assisted in developing and implementing prototype fine particle (PM2.5) forecasting for Nashville and Memphis.

## In 2004, TVA updated all ozone forecast models and provided the models and the daily meteorological forecast information to the forecasting partners and developed PM2.5 forecasting procedures for all current forecast areas and, additionally, the Huntsville/Decatur area of Alabama.

In 2005, TVA is updating all ozone and PM2.5 forecast models and developing ozone forecasting procedures for Huntsville/Decatur, AL and ozone and PM2.5 forecasting procedures for Clarksville, TN.  The models and the daily meteorological forecast information will be provided to the various forecasting partners by March 2005. 

- In 2005, TVA is updating all ozone and PM2.5 forecast models and developing ozone forecasting procedures for Huntsville/Decatur, AL and ozone and PM2.5 forecasting procedures for Clarksville, TN.  The models and the daily meteorological forecast information will be provided to the various forecasting partners by March 2005.

- Background Information (cont.)

## Slide 7

## Slide 8

## Slide 9

## Slide 10

## Slide 11

## PM2.5 Forecast Tree 2004

## Decision Tree for PM2.5 Forecasts (TVA Region)

**Decision Tree for PM****2.5**** Forecasts (TVA Region)**

**A.  Current (1300 local time) PM****2.5**_**<**_**15 ****μ****g/m****3 ****:**

- Forecast daily average surface wind speed

- WS>2m/s

- WS<2m/s

- Green

- _All_ of following forecast conditions met:
-   Maximum Temperature > 30°C
-   Max 1-hour Ozone > 75ppb
-   18Z Mixing Height < 800m

- A1

- Go to
- B1

**Y**

- Go to
- B1

**N**

## Decision Tree for PM2.5 Forecasts (TVA Region)

**Decision Tree for PM****2.5**** Forecasts (TVA Region)**

**B.  Current (1300 local time) PM2.5>15 ****μ****g/m****3**** and PM2.5**_**<**_**30 ****μ****g/m****3**** :**

- Forecast daily average surface wind speed

- WS>2m/s

- WS<2m/s

- Go to
- A1

- B1

- Green

- Precipitation (any intensity)
- or Frontal passage

- _Both_ of following forecast conditions met:
-   Max 1-hour Ozone > 85ppb
-   18Z Mixing Height < 500m

- Go to
- C1

- No Fires

- Fires within
- 500 km
*upwind*

- Fires within
- 300 km

- Yellow

- Orange

- Orange

**N**

**Y**

**N**

- Go to
- A1

- Go to
- C1

**Y**

## Decision Tree for PM2.5 Forecasts (TVA Region)

**Decision Tree for PM****2.5**** Forecasts (TVA Region)**

**C.  Current (1300 local time) PM****2.5****>30 ****μ****g/m****3 ****:**

- Forecast daily average surface wind speed

- WS>2m/s

- WS<2m/s

- C1

- Significant precipitation
- ( > 1 inch per day)

- _Any_ of following forecast conditions met:
-   Precipitation (any intensity)
-   Frontal passage
-   Max 1-hour Ozone < 90ppb

- No Fires

-  Fires within
- 500 km

- Green

**N**

- Orange

**N**

- Yellow

- Orange

**Y**

- No Fires

-  Fires within
- 500 km

- Yellow

- Orange

**Y**

## Example PM2.5 Forecast

- PM2.5 = 14 μg/m3
- Wind Speed = 1.8 m/s
- Temperature = 32°C
- Ozone = 86 ppb
- Mixing height = 480 m
- No precipitation
- No fires within 500 km

## Decision Tree for PM2.5 Forecasts (TVA Region)

**Decision Tree for PM****2.5**** Forecasts (TVA Region)**

**A.  Current (1300 local time) PM****2.5**_**<**_**15 ****μ****g/m****3 ****:**

- Forecast daily average surface wind speed

- WS>2m/s

- WS<2m/s

- Green

- _All_ of following forecast conditions met:
-   Maximum Temperature > 30°C
-   Max 1-hour Ozone > 75ppb
-   18Z Mixing Height < 800m

- A1

- Go to
- B1

**Y**

- Go to
- B1

**N**

## Decision Tree for PM2.5 Forecasts (TVA Region)

**Decision Tree for PM****2.5**** Forecasts (TVA Region)**

**B.  Current (1300 local time) PM2.5>15 ****μ****g/m****3**** and PM2.5**_**<**_**30 ****μ****g/m****3**** :**

- Forecast daily average surface wind speed

- WS>2m/s

- WS<2m/s

- Go to
- A1

- B1

- Green

- Precipitation (any intensity)
- or Frontal passage

- _Both_ of following forecast conditions met:
-   Max 1-hour Ozone > 85ppb
-   18Z Mixing Height < 500m

- Go to
- C1

- No Fires

- Fires within
- 500 km
*upwind*

- Fires within
- 300 km

- Yellow

- Orange

- Orange

**N**

**Y**

**N**

- Go to
- A1

- Go to
- C1

**Y**

## Decision Tree for PM2.5 Forecasts (TVA Region)

**Decision Tree for PM****2.5**** Forecasts (TVA Region)**

**C.  Current (1300 local time) PM****2.5****>30 ****μ****g/m****3 ****:**

- Forecast daily average surface wind speed

- WS>2m/s

- WS<2m/s

- C1

- Significant precipitation
- ( > 1 inch per day)

- _Any_ of following forecast conditions met:
-   Precipitation (any intensity)
-   Frontal passage
-   Max 1-hour Ozone < 90ppb

- No Fires

-  Fires within
- 500 km

- Green

**N**

- Orange

**N**

- Yellow

- Orange

**Y**

- No Fires

-  Fires within
- 500 km

- Yellow

- Orange

**Y**

## Slide 20

## PM2.5 Forecast Model Results(Partial 2004 Test Run)

- There were less than 5 “action” days observed valley wide for the partial 2004 PM2.5 data set run in the test model.
- Most “action” days in the Tennessee Valley forecasting region are due to unusual events (fires).

## Goals & Objectives

- Continually improve ozone forecast models and performance statistics
- Expand continuous PM2.5 monitoring network across forecast area
- Replace PM2.5 forecast decision tree with regression based forecast models for PM2.5 as more data becomes available
- Obtain a standard benchmark and what performance objectives the Tennessee Valley Air Quality Forecasting Partnership should strive for from EPA

## Contact Information

- 				Tennessee Valley Authority
- 				Jennifer Call
- 				Meteorologist
- 				Environmental Technologies
- 				P.O. Box 1010 CTR 1P
- 				Muscle Shoals, AL 35662-1010
- 				PH 256-386-3435  FAX 256-386-2499
- 				jmcall@tva.gov