# Presentation: 194316

## SPoRT Ongoing Modeling Projects

**Science Advisory Committee Meeting**
**13 June 2007**

## Extension of R&A to Applications

**Partnership with NWS/MIA**

**Direct Outcome of the Joint NAS SOO/SPoRT Workshop**

**SPoRT and Pablo Santos (SOO/MIA) developed a plan to evaluate and then transition the MODIS SST composites within WRF for use in Miami’s operational forecasts**

**Notes:**
The Miami project is a collaborative effort between SPoRT and the Miami WFO.
The goals of the project include demonstrating the benefit of the MODIS SST composites on Miami’s operational forecasts and transitioning the capability to ingest the MODIS SST composites to the Miami WFO.

## Methodology for MIA Modeling

- Project designed to optimize and share computational resources—a direct outcome of the 2006 workshop
- 27 h WRF-NMM simulations have been run four times daily since February 2007
- 4 km resolution; 31 vertical levels
- MIA uses LAPS for initialization
- SPoRT parallel runs use the 2 km MODIS SST composites, while Miami’s forecasts use the 1/12° RTG SST analyses
- 27 h forecast initialized daily at 03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC.

**Notes:**
SPoRT has been running a parallel version of the Miami WFO operational forecasts since mid-February 2007.  Their model configuration includes the WRF-NMM run at 4 km resolution (full domain shown in figure) with 31 vertical levels.  The forecasts are initialized with the Miami LAPS analysis at 03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC daily.  The Miami forecasts include the one-twelfth degree RTG SST analysis, while the SPoRT forecasts use the 2 km MODIS SST composite.

## Future Plans

- Determine the impact of MODIS SSTs (research perspective)
- Verify forecasts against surface and precipitation observations
- Perform comparison of forecasts similar to May 2004 study period to show general impact
- Transition the capability to ingest the MODIS SST composites to Miami WFO
- Integrate LIS soil moisture representation into system

**Notes:**
Validation of the forecasts using both the MODIS SST composites and the RTG SST analyses will be done to show the benefit from the MODIS SSTs.  A combination of surface and precipitation observations will be used for this.  A comparison of these forecasts, without validation, will also be done to see the impact on the marine boundary layer and other locations where observations are limited.
When the Miami WFO requests it, we will share with them the changes necessary to run their forecasts using the MODIS SST composites.  This should only involve giving them one file and pointing them to the anonymous ftp server, where the MODIS SSTs are already available.

## What is the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed?

- Both a facility and an organization...
*	**- The facility is located on the second floor of the new NWC, between the SPC and WFO OUN operational forecasting areas. *
*	****- An organization that supports and promotes collaborative research activities between NSSL, SPC, OUN, and the broader meteorological community.***

- Two Main Program Areas...

**E**xperimental
**W**arning
**P**rogram

**E**xperimental
**F**orecast
**P**rogram

## Hazardous Weather Testbed Benefits

- The close working relationship between operational and research meteorologists has fostered
*Increased appreciation by ****Research Meteorologists**** of forecaster insights, and operational constraints and requirements *
*Education of ****Operational Meteorologists**** about NWP models, other research and diagnostic tools, and application of scientific knowledge to severe weather forecasting*
***Accelerated transfer**** of useful new technologies, products and diagnostic / prediction tools from research to operations*

## Proposed HWT Activities: Spring Program 2007

- Annual SPC/NSSL Spring Program
- First year of multi-year effort (2007-2009)
*Contributing Partners****:****  SPC, NSSL, CAPS, EMC, NCAR, OUN (unique diversity of backgrounds and expertise)*
**Scientific Objectives:**
- Improve high resolution WRF models
- Further explore impacts of various physics (PBL, microphysics, etc.) on high-res WRF forecasts
- Pre-convective environment, PBL sounding structure, and convective storms
- Continue investigating impact of resolution on WRF simulation of stormscale structures (e.g., supercells, bow echoes, etc.)

## Proposed HWT Activities: Spring Program 2007

**Scientific Objectives (cont’d)**
- Begin to explore development and utility of a ***daily high resolution convection-allowing 10 member WRF ensemble*** in short-term (12-30h) prediction of severe convection
- Investigate IC versus physics spread in convection-allowing ensemble
- Explore understanding of physics on ensemble performance
- Environment; convective initiation, intensity and mode
- Compare to “higher” resolution deterministic WRF
- 2 km WRF (CAPS) and 3 km WRF (NCAR)
- Begin developing interrogation tools to extract ensemble-based information for a variety of hazardous weather events

## Collaboration With SPoRT....