# Presentation: 672505

## 

October 30, 1998

Warren D. Siemens
Director, Technology Partnerships & Commercialization
Sandia National Laboratories

**October 30, 1998**
**Warren D. Siemens**
**Director, Technology Partnerships & Commercialization**
**Sandia National Laboratories**

**Bringing the Fuzzy Front-End into Focus: Knowledge Management, IT, and R&D**

## Overview
Knowledge Mapping or Visualization
Prosperity GamesTM
Technology Roadmapping
Integration

**Knowledge Mapping or Visualization**
**Prosperity GamesTM**
**Technology Roadmapping**
**Integration**

**Outline**

## Challenge

**How do we effectively build processes for turning changes in customer needs into sustainable competitive advantage?**
**Where are we now?   Who are our competitors, and where are they?**
**Where do we want to be?  ...  by when?**
**How should we get there?**
**Can we get there in time by ourselves?  ...  or should we partner?  ...  and with whom?**

## Tools

**Knowledge Mapping: V****x****InsightTM software helps identify and classify technology efforts of potential customers, partners, and competitors**
**Prosperity GamesTM: seminar-style war games applied to complex technical / policy issues**
**Technology Roadmapping: process to link customer / market needs, products / services, and technologies**
**Synergy among the three tools**

## Knowledge Mapping

## Why Map (Visualize) Knowledge?

**Amount and availability of information are increasing (data dumping)**
**Data mining and knowledge management tools are primarily text-based; profiling and agents may miss important information**
**Current tools do not reveal implicit structure of information**
**Humans have the capability to process large amounts of information presented graphically**

## Knowledge Mapping: VxInsightTM

**Tool to organize and graphically display large linked data sets**
**e.g., science citation index, hyperlinked web sites**

**Can provide new insights for ****policy makers and corporations ****wanting a better understanding of past, current and future trends**
**visualize ebb and flow of activity**
**‘****see’ the leading edge and who is working it**

## Software Capabilities

## VxInsightTM Process

- Identify the
- desired database

- Navigate and explore
- the resulting 3-D landscape

- Pre-process the
- raw data

- Compute pairwise similarities
- Compute X,Y positions using ordination routines
- Load into VxInsightTM

- Science Citation
- Index from ISI

## Application: R&D Investment Decisions

**Visualize technical fields using publication citation data**
**Where do we have advantage?**
**Where do others have a huge head start?**
**Do the work ourselves or partner?**

## Application: Institutional Profiles

**Map of science provides basis for comparison**
**Qualitative - in which fields does an institution publish?**
**Quantitative comparison can be done using traditional data-base methods**

## VxInsightTM: Use With Any Linked Data

**Citation data**
**investigation of technologies (who, what, trends, etc.)**
**profile institutions (customers, competitors, potential partners)**
**Patent data**

**Transactions data**
**import / export monitoring**
**fraud detection**
**Any data where similarity between object pairs can be calculated using**
**keywords, phrases**
**common characteristics**
**direct links**

## Prosperity Games

## What are Prosperity Games?

**Free-form simulation games**
**Games: structured with objectives, rules, players, competition and cooperation**
**Simulation: contain real-life scenarios and simplified models of real processes**
**Free-form: teams plan their futures, then execute their plans by negotiation, rather than by using prepared formulas or algorithms**
**Compressed time**
**5-10 years simulated in ~2 days**

## Strengths of Prosperity Games

**Greater participation and involvement than seminars or workshops leading to greater advocacy for ideas in real life**
**Encourages out-of-the-box thinking since consequences are gamed, not real**
**Can uncover complex relationships and problems very quickly; compressed time constraints can lead to rapid working solutions**
**Explores the human dimension of planning, negotiation, competition, and their outcomes**

## Strengths of Prosperity Games (cont.)

**Teaming and networking are strengthened due to forced personal interaction**
**Reveals leadership schisms and lack of consensus on an organization’s purpose, vision, goals; success in the game requires some level of agreement on these things**
**Reveals priorities through the players’ allocation of scarce resources**
**Educational experience involving many senses**

## Prosperity Game Process

- GAME DESIGN

- GAME PLAY

- Game Objectives

- Team Planning

- Game Feedback

- Negotiation

- Negotiation

- Debrief

-  Identify
-  -  Stakeholders
-  -  Interactions

-  Create
-  -  Scenarios
-  -  Resources
-  -  Supporting info

## Prosperity Game: Electronics Industry 1994

**Objectives**
**explore long-term thinking about tech strategies**
**prepare for a roadmap to economic competitiveness**
**Stakeholders**
**domestic and foreign manufacturers, suppliers, governments, public**
**Scenario**
**develop powerful personal data assistant (PDA)**

## Prosperity Games / Roadmap Links

**National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI) game had influence on the Electronics Manufacturing Technology Roadmaps developed and published in 1994**
**many game participants participated in the roadmap workshops and writing**
**Biomedical Technology PG included preliminary roadmapping activities that started the roadmap process in an effort sponsored by SNL, DARPA, and the Koop Foundation**

## Prosperity Games: DOE Labs Activities

**Several games**
**Prosperity-Diversity Game**
**Future@Labs Game**
**Industrial Partnership Game**
**Outcomes and influences**
**Council on Competitiveness National R&D Summits**
**Legislation to Congressional committees**
**Changes in Sandia business planning, development, partnership processes**

## Technology Roadmapping

## What is Technology Roadmapping?

**Needs-driven technology planning process to help identify, select, and develop technology alternatives to satisfy a set of product needs**
**identifying critical product needs that drive technology selection and investment decisions**
**helping to identify and select appropriate technology alternatives**
**driving implementation planning by specifying what levels of technology performance are needed when**

## Strengths of Technology Roadmapping

**Links investment decisions to business requirements by organizing information**
**Builds consensus about needs and the alternatives to address them**
**Mechanism to help forecast developments in targeted areas**
**Identifies critical technologies and gaps**
**Framework to coordinate R&D efforts within companies or industries**

## Technology Roadmapping Process

- Phase I - Preliminary
- -	Yes, we have a
- 	problem that needs
- 	a roadmap!
- -	Define scope and
- 	boundaries
- -	Provide leadership,
- 	sponsorship, and
- 	resources

- Phase II - Roadmap
- Development

- Phase III - Follow
- Through
- -	Critique and
- 	validate
- -	Develop an imple-
- 	mentation plan
- -	Review and
- 	update as needed

## Phase II: Roadmap Development

## NEMI Roadmap (Electronics Mfg.) Example

**Electronic Interconnection Substrates**
**RF Communications Technology**
**Photonics Manufacturing**
**Packaging**
**Board Assembly**
**Precision Electromechanical Assembly**
**Mfg Information & Management Systems**
**Sensors & Automation**
**Rapid Physical & Virtual Prototyping**

_**Roadmap Categories**_

**Low Cost**
**Equipment**
**Data-driven Processes**
**PCMCIA**
**CIM & SPC**
**Components**

_**Board Assembly Subcategories**_

## Partnership Development Tools: Integration

**Knowledge Mapping**
**identify strengths, current fronts, trends**
**Prosperity Games**
**identify need, plan, validation **
**Technology Roadmapping**
**identify needs, drivers, gaps, plans**
**Synthesis of tool outputs aids in ensuring robustness of R&D efforts in face of change**

## Prosperity Games / Roadmapping Links

**Biomedical Technology PG included preliminary roadmapping activities that started the roadmap process in an effort sponsored by SNL, DARPA, and the Koop Foundation**
**National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI) was designed to test / validate the concepts developed in the roadmap**

## Knowledge Mapping / Prosperity Game Links

**Pre-game**
**Develop map to show main technical areas of focus for Prosperity Game**
**Query map for first-cut list of who should attend**
**good for large companies; can use personal contacts and networking for small companies**
**Post-game**
**Use knowledge map to explain areas in which player behavior did not follow expectations**
**Forecasting based on game trends overlayed on map**

## Knowledge Mapping / Roadmapping Links

**Develop map to show main technical areas of focus for Roadmap**
**Query map for first-cut list of who should attend**
**70% of top 30 industry and government orgs in a 92-94 semiconductor manufacturing map participated in the NEMI roadmap development**

**Pre-roadmap**

## Knowledge Mapping / Roadmapping Links

**Monitor progress on Roadmap technologies**
**where is work moving ahead? behind schedule?**
**R&D trends / vectors**
**should the roadmap be updated?**

**Post-roadmap**

## Roadmap Monitoring: Example

**Roadmap Monitoring: Example**

**Anisotropic con-ductive adhesive - new component attachment work**
**Packaging concern: thin-film stability - new work**
**Automated guided vehicle system - application**

## Roadmap Monitoring: Example

**Neural networks - technology of choice for quality, process control, etc. for electronics manufacturing in years 2001 and beyond**
**work spreading to fuzzy logic systems and simulated annealing algorithms**

## Technology Planning Tool Evolution

_**Theory - before KM**_

_**Optimum - with KM**_

## Tools Meet the Challenge

**1.****	****Where are we now? ... Who**
**	****are our competitors; where**
**	****are they?**
**2.****	****Where do we want to be? ... **
**	****by when?**
**3.****	****How should we get there?**
**4.****	****Can we get there in time by**
**	****ourselves? ... or should we**
**	****partner? ... with whom?**

## Who to Contact

**For further information:**
**David Beck, Acting Manager**
**Technology Planning Tools**
**phone (505) 843-4230**
**fax      (505) 843-4228 **
**dfbeck@sandia.gov**