# Presentation: 509704

## TAKE HOME MESSAGES

**Standardized quantitative approach**
-  common currency for a basin wide comparison of risks among stocks / ESUs

**Notes:**
While Snake River Chinook salmon are clearly at risk and worthy of concerted efforts, these ESUs are not the most imperiled ESUs; more specifically, steelhead in general and stocks from the Upper Columbia (steelhead and chinook) are facing the greatest relative risks.

less than 1.0 for nine of the eleven ESUs 
less than 0.9 for Upper Columbia Spring Chinook salmon, Middle Columbia steelhead, Upper Columbia steelhead, and Upper Willamette steelhead (note Snake spring/summer Chinook are not the worst off)

Incorrectly assuming all spawner counts are wild, when a proportion of those fish originate from hatcheries, results in underestimation of risk of decline for the wild fish.  A major uncertainty in estimating these risk measures involves information (or documentation of information) regarding the presence and influence of hatchery fish on the spawning grounds.  Data on the proportion of naturally spawning fish that are of hatchery origin and the reproductive contribution of these fish are largely lacking.  In the absence of such data, estimates of true population trends of wild fish may be obscured.

## TAKE HOME MESSAGES

**Risks are great for all Columbia River Basin ESUs**
- 		 < 1.0         9 of 11** **ESUs
**Especially at risk**
-  	 Steelhead everywhere (3 ESUs  < 0.9)
- 	 Upper Columbia (chinook and steelhead)

**TAKE HOME MESSAGES**

**Notes:**
While Snake River Chinook salmon are clearly at risk and worthy of concerted efforts, these ESUs are not the most imperiled ESUs; more specifically, steelhead in general and stocks from the Upper Columbia (steelhead and chinook) are facing the greatest relative risks.

less than 1.0 for nine of the eleven ESUs 
less than 0.9 for Upper Columbia Spring Chinook salmon, Middle Columbia steelhead, Upper Columbia steelhead, and Upper Willamette steelhead (note Snake spring/summer Chinook are not the worst off)

Incorrectly assuming all spawner counts are wild, when a proportion of those fish originate from hatcheries, results in underestimation of risk of decline for the wild fish.  A major uncertainty in estimating these risk measures involves information (or documentation of information) regarding the presence and influence of hatchery fish on the spawning grounds.  Data on the proportion of naturally spawning fish that are of hatchery origin and the reproductive contribution of these fish are largely lacking.  In the absence of such data, estimates of true population trends of wild fish may be obscured.

## TAKE HOME MESSAGES

- 	Knowing the fraction of hatchery fish in spawner counts (and their reproductive rates) is critical to correctly evaluate risks for wild fish.

**TAKE HOME MESSAGES**

**Notes:**
While Snake River Chinook salmon are clearly at risk and worthy of concerted efforts, these ESUs are not the most imperiled ESUs; more specifically, steelhead in general and stocks from the Upper Columbia (steelhead and chinook) are facing the greatest relative risks.

less than 1.0 for nine of the eleven ESUs 
less than 0.9 for Upper Columbia Spring Chinook salmon, Middle Columbia steelhead, Upper Columbia steelhead, and Upper Willamette steelhead (note Snake spring/summer Chinook are not the worst off)

Incorrectly assuming all spawner counts are wild, when a proportion of those fish originate from hatcheries, results in underestimation of risk of decline for the wild fish.  A major uncertainty in estimating these risk measures involves information (or documentation of information) regarding the presence and influence of hatchery fish on the spawning grounds.  Data on the proportion of naturally spawning fish that are of hatchery origin and the reproductive contribution of these fish are largely lacking.  In the absence of such data, estimates of true population trends of wild fish may be obscured.

## Another......

-  		 	0-65 % (10-15%)
**How much improvement can we get from specific actions?**
- 	Harvest moratoria (1-30%)
- 		Lower Columbia Chinook
- 		Upper Willamette Chinook
- 		Snake River Fall Chinook
- 	Habitat, hatcheries, ocean, hydro-system
- 		uncertain

**Another......**

**Notes:**
While Snake River Chinook salmon are clearly at risk and worthy of concerted efforts, these ESUs are not the most imperiled ESUs; more specifically, steelhead in general and stocks from the Upper Columbia (steelhead and chinook) are facing the greatest relative risks.

less than 1.0 for nine of the eleven ESUs 
less than 0.9 for Upper Columbia Spring Chinook salmon, Middle Columbia steelhead, Upper Columbia steelhead, and Upper Willamette steelhead (note Snake spring/summer Chinook are not the worst off)

Incorrectly assuming all spawner counts are wild, when a proportion of those fish originate from hatcheries, results in underestimation of risk of decline for the wild fish.  A major uncertainty in estimating these risk measures involves information (or documentation of information) regarding the presence and influence of hatchery fish on the spawning grounds.  Data on the proportion of naturally spawning fish that are of hatchery origin and the reproductive contribution of these fish are largely lacking.  In the absence of such data, estimates of true population trends of wild fish may be obscured.

## Last One......

**NOW****, we need to start large-scale management experiments in conjunction with effective monitoring programs.**
**	**
**Some of these experiments may fail, but if properly designed we can learn from our mistakes.**

**Last One......**

**Notes:**
While Snake River Chinook salmon are clearly at risk and worthy of concerted efforts, these ESUs are not the most imperiled ESUs; more specifically, steelhead in general and stocks from the Upper Columbia (steelhead and chinook) are facing the greatest relative risks.

less than 1.0 for nine of the eleven ESUs 
less than 0.9 for Upper Columbia Spring Chinook salmon, Middle Columbia steelhead, Upper Columbia steelhead, and Upper Willamette steelhead (note Snake spring/summer Chinook are not the worst off)

Incorrectly assuming all spawner counts are wild, when a proportion of those fish originate from hatcheries, results in underestimation of risk of decline for the wild fish.  A major uncertainty in estimating these risk measures involves information (or documentation of information) regarding the presence and influence of hatchery fish on the spawning grounds.  Data on the proportion of naturally spawning fish that are of hatchery origin and the reproductive contribution of these fish are largely lacking.  In the absence of such data, estimates of true population trends of wild fish may be obscured.