# Presentation: 298146

## Linac Proton Driver Cost Estimate

**Rich Stanek**
**March 15 , 2005**

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Outline

**Summary of the Linac Cost Estimate**
**What’s in the Estimate **
**Cost Drivers**
**Detailed Cost Estimate Review**
**The Next Steps**
**Conclusions**

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate

**Linac cost estimate is developed in a WBS format (Excel)****  **
**It is separated into two major categories**** **
- Civil Construction and Technical Systems
**Component cost estimates are based on **
- Actual costs for existing equipment
- Vendor quotes
- Scaling from TESLA, SNS, FNAL/MI, and J PARC costs
- Detailed engineering estimates and
- High level estimates
**Labor estimates are made using Eng, Tech and Phys categories only and using TD SWF averages (actual) **
**Detailed contingency analysis has not yet been performed**
**Costs are shown in 2004 dollars without G&A or contingency, unless explicitly noted**
**G&A and contingency are applied at the highest level of the estimate to arrive at an estimated Total Cost for the PD Project**

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Review of the PD/Linac Cost

| (All costs in 2004 K$) | Linac |
| --- | --- |
| Project M&S* | 229,779 |
| Project SWF | 89,118 |
| Project Subtotal | 318,897 |
| G&A# 
(16.05% M&S & 30.35% Labor) | 63,927 |
| Project (incl. G&A) | 382,824 |
| Contingency (30%) | 114,847 |
| Total Cost | 497,670 |

- * Davis Bacon labor shows up as M&S
- # G&A rate will be lower on large POs

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## What’s IN / What’s NOT 

**IN**
- All costs associated with civil construction, power & utilities
- Costs for procuring, fabricating and installing all technical components up to and including injection into MI
- Costs to set up tests of production cryomodules in SMTF
- 	(but not the costs of operating SMTF)
- Cost of Project Management (including reviews)
**NOT ****(all budgeted separately)**
- Costs associated with MI Upgrades (ex. RF Upgrade)
- Costs for setting up SMTF and the cryomodule factories
- Costs associated with ongoing and near-term R&D efforts
- Costs for spares

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Cost Drivers

- Cost Drivers are the Cryomodules, Civil Construction and Cryogenics

- Total = $319M (without G&A and contingency)

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate 2

**2.0  Civil Construction**
- PD Civil Working Group meets weekly => lots of interaction between technical, civil and installation personnel
- Looked at different geographical locations for the Linac
- Good layout for the technical components
- Ability for adjustments and expansion in the future (if desired)
- Minimal environmental impact
- Viable routing for utilities (power, chilled water, communications)
- Reasonable impact on existing facilities (TeV crossing & MI tie in)
- Cost generated using standard FESS methodology
- Nothing new about the construction techniques
- Using 20% EDIA (in-house) and 15% EDIA (contracted)
- Based on DOE recommendations for projects at this stage

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Civil Construction Summary

_**Building Cost:**_
- $315/sf high bay/industrial
- $215/sf office/tech area
- Add in extras

**Absorber cost scaled from MI**

- EA work will begin soon to assure no negative impact on cost/schedule

**Enclosures @ MI depth cost based on MI actuals**

- Numbers do not include G&A or contingency

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Example of FESS Worksheet

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate 3

**3.0  Front End ($ 8.1M) => 3.8% of Technical Systems**
- Current cost estimate based on cold option (use of cold SSR and DSR)
- Mostly high level estimates (Level 2 or 3)
- Draws on experience at FNAL, SNS, JPARC and scaling from ACCSYS PL-7 Linac
- Labor estimate is also high level with SWF/M&S ratio = 73%

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate 4

**4.0  Cryomodules ($101M) => **_**Clearly the #1 Cost Driver **_
**M&S Costs ($86.7M)**
- Based on RFQ (~55%), vendor communications,TESLA/SNS costs and Eng est.
**EDIA (Design Phase) Costs ($3.3M)**
- 500 drawings/CM design x 20 hrs/drawing (CMS, LHC experience @ FNAL)
**Assembly Costs** **($10.7M)** => assembly crew = 18.5 techs (combination of assembly, QC, alignment and testing personnel, spread over 2 facilities)
- Spokes  7 weeks/CM
- Elliptical  5 weeks/CM
- Assume 4 FTE engineers associated with assembly teams
**Installation Costs ($1.1M)**
- $10K M&S (rigging/transportation) + 2 techs for 2 weeks + EDIA
**Key decision that needs to be made (Value Engineering Stage)**
- Spokes versus Elliptical cavities for low Beta (.47 & .61)

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Roll up of Cryomodule Costs

**Cryomodule costs are segmented by type**
- 1 SSR,  2 DSR,  6 TSR,  6 Beta=.81,  36 Beta=1 + 1 Cu cavity (Debuncher – H20)
**M&S costs vary by type although format (cost breakdown) is the same**
- M&S (SSR) = $ 3.365M	M&S (Beta=1) = $ 1.53M

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate 5

**5.0  Cryogenic System ($28.6M) => 13.4% of Tech Systems**
- FNAL AD/Cryogenics Department leading the effort
- Cost estimate based on the estimated heat loads (TSR option) and vendor communication as well as analysis of recent procurements using an LHC model for refrigeration cost versus capacity

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate 6

**6.0  Modulators & Pulse Transformers ($13.9M) => 6.5% of Technical Systems**
- Modulator cost based on actual purchase and assembly of units by AD/EED which have been shipped to DESY/TESLA TTF.
- Credit taken for quantity/price reductions
-  Assembly cost set equal to M&S cost (rule of thumb based on years of experience building this type of equipment)
- Assume major assembly work gets done on outside by vendors

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate 7

**7.0  Klystrons ($6.9M) => 3.2% of Technical Systems**
- Current estimate includes three 325MHz Klystrons for Front End and TSR option cavities and ten 1300MHz Klystrons
- Several possible vendors
- Costs based on actual costs (TESLA purchases)

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate 8

**8.0  RF Distributions ($18.1M) => 8.5% of Technical Systems**
- Includes both 325 MHz and 1300 MHz distribution systems
- Most components are standard industrial items
- Fast ferrite phase shifters are one of the key parts in this system
- Tests at FNAL have successfully demonstrated performance
- R&D continues and vendor quotes exist for present configurations
- TSR Option is assumed and costed

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate 9

**9.0  Utilities ($6.7M) => 3.2% of Technical Systems**
- LCW System (Linac, Klystron Gallery, Pump Room and Dump)
- Vacuum System (ion pumps, gauges, controls and leak checking)
- LCW system is simplified due to a steady repeating pattern
- Allows for prefabrication of assemblies
- Main LCW headers could be added to the civil outfitting contracts (if this is more efficient or saves costs)
- LCW installation is assumed Davis Bacon work (M&S)
- Labor estimate has 20% scope contingency included in the numbers

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate 10

**10.0  Instrumentation, Controls & Power Supplies ($11M) ****	****=> 5.2% of Technical Systems**
- An example of an estimate that is done at a high level
- Needs to be better defined => will establish a Working Group to look at all aspects of Instrumentation & Controls for the SC Linac
- Present estimates based on FNAL experience (Engineering Estimate)
- Estimate for Power Supplies for the Front End magnets is more detailed (only a small % of the costs = $336K)

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate 11

**11.0  8 GeV Transfer Line & Absorbers ($8.5M) => 3.5% of Technical Systems**
- Magnets (dipoles, C magnets, quads and trims)
- Power supplies
- Vacuum system (ion pumps, valves, gauges, controls & leak checking)
- Instrumentation (BPM, BLM, CT, PM)
- Dumps (8 GeV Primary, Injection Foil)
- Foil Changer
- Collimation System
- Cost based on current technical design using FNAL/TD methodology for magnet cost estimation & engineer estimates

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Assembling the Cost Estimate 12

**12.0 Infrastructure & Integration ($6.9M) => 3.3% of Technical Systems**
- Picks up things that everyone else forgets
- Interlocks (very detailed estimate based on present layout)
- Installation Coordination
- Including Alignment
- Misc. Cabling & Electrical Integration
- Support for Testing in SMTF
- Most of the items are engineering estimates
- Sum of the last three items
- 24 FTE of Engineering ($3.1M)
- 36 FTE of Technician Support ($2.9M)
- 21 FTE of Physicist time (Priceless)

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Main Injector Upgrade

**The cost of the MI Upgrade is not included in the Linac cost estimate**
- The Plan is still evolving and a number of the upgrades will be part of the Proton Plan
**A major item of the MI Upgrade is RF Upgrade**
- Dual PA Tube Upgrade - $12M (Tech) + $7M (Civil)
- Allows beam power up to 1 MW
- New RF cavities (more ambitious) - $20M (Tech) + $15M (Civil)
- Allows beam power up to 2 MW
- Improve electrical/power systems => $6M
- Reduce MI cycle time to 1 sec. & achieve beam power > 2 MW
- Rough estimates (just for order of magnitude scale)
**Still unclear as to exactly what will be in the Proton Plan**** **

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Next Steps in Project Planning

**Starting with the current cost estimate**
- Develop (in more detail) areas that have lump sum estimates
- Choose a standard methodology for risk evaluation and contingency analysis
- Develop the detailed list of tasks that need to be accomplished to complete the project
- Develop durations, schedules and resources needed for each individual tasks
- Load into Open Plan and create a Resource Loaded Schedule using standard resource categories
**Adopt the “Lab standard” EVMS (Cobra)**
**Establish a Document Control & Database System**
**Set up a Project Management Plan and Project Office**

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Value Engineering Analysis

**As the Proton Driver Project moves farther along, the civil construction plan as well as the designs of all technical components will undergo a Value Engineering Analysis**
**Technical/Cost/Schedule trade-offs will be examined and analyzed to arrive at a final design that is both technically and financially optimized**
**Examples of the types of analysis that will be done:**
- Size of tunnels/buildings/access ways versus intended use
- Reuse of existing equipment (ex. cryogenic)
- Decision of TSR vs. elliptical cavities for the low Beta region
- To first order approximation this is cost neutral (technical/schedule?)

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005

## Conclusions

**The present Linac cost estimate establishes a reasonable and believable Range of Values for the cost of a SC Proton Driver at Fermilab**
**It is the first step in establishing a proposed baseline cost estimate for the PD Project**
**Coupled with a fully developed Technical Design Report, a risk based Contingency Analysis, and a Resource Loaded Schedule, this cost estimate will form the basis for managing the Proton Diver Project at Fermilab**

- Rich Stanek - Proton Driver Director's Review

- March 15-17, 2005