# Presentation: 551481

## MRPO Data Analysis

- Donna Kenski
- National RPO Technical Meeting
- December 3-4, 2002

## Data Analysis Team Approach

- Initiated Spring 2002
- State participants:  IL, WI, MI, OH
- Federal participants:  USEPA-R5
- Academic participants: UIC
- Stakeholder participants:  MOG, Eli Lilly
- Goals:  Meet monthly, share analysis results and techniques, become a ‘team’
- Difficulties to overcome:  competing priorities, varying levels of expertise, no universal platform or toolbox

## Data analysis needs

- Data available:
- 3 full years of PM2.5 FRM data
- Historic IMPROVE & Castnet, plus new IMPROVE sites
- Speciation network: >=1 year of data from urban sites, <= 1 year from rural sites
- PM2.5 data still too limited for many analyses (trends, PMF, CART)
- Analyses needed:
- Contribution assessment
- Conceptual model
- Response:
- Drew up list of questions that could be answered with available data, enlisted volunteers

## Q:  How similar are PM2.5 mass and chemical composition in the rural Midwest?

- Task:  Assess the similarity of PM2.5 concentrations at rural IMPROVE and speciation sites in MI, WI, and MN (Houghton Lake, Seney, Perkinstown, Mayville, Boundary Waters, Isle Royale, Voyageurs)
- Approach:  Examine time series, correlations, and scatterplots to show similarities and differences
- Assigned to:  Gina Williams, Eli Lilly
- Status:  Underway

## Chemical Composition - Rural Sites IMPROVE/CASTNet Data (1997 - 1999)

## Slide 6

## Q: What is the temporal variability of PM2.5 mass and chemical composition in the rural upper Midwest?

- Task:  Determine appropriate sampling frequency for rural speciation sites in the upper Midwest
- Approach:  Examine confidence intervals for various %iles calculated from 1/3, 1/6, and 1/12 day sampling periods
- Assigned to: Peter Scheff, UIC/EPA
- Status:  Underway

## Q:  How do optical measurements compare to TEOM, FRM, and speciation sampler mass and reconstructed light scattering?	

- Task: Evaluate observed light scattering (neph. data) v. reconstructed light scattering (filter data).
- Approach:  Using data from Bondville, Mayville, Seney and Quaker City, construct scatterplots and calculate regressions for these relationships; examine seasonal differences and effect of humidity
- Assigned to: ARS
- Status: Initial report due Dec. 2003

## Reconstructing Mass

## Q: How do IMPROVE and CASTNET measurements compare?

- Task:  Evaluate speciated measurements from collocated IMPROVE and CASTNET monitors at Bondville (3/01-12/01)
- Approach:  Scatterplots of each measured species (mass, major ions, EC, OC, and elements) and fitted regression lines, time series of each element to discern possible seasonal differences
- Assigned to: Mike Koerber
- Status: Underway

## Bondville Nitrate Comparison

## Bondville Sulfate Comparison

## Q:  What meteorological conditions are associated with high and low PM2.5 days? (Part 1)

- Task:  Identify synoptic surface and aloft conditions on high PM days
- Approach:  Identify days and episodes with high/low concentrations, characterize associated met conditions (regional scale)
- Assigned to: Bob Swinford, IEPA
- Status:  Regional episodes identified

## Q:  What meteorological conditions are associated with high and low PM2.5 days? (Part 2)

- Task:  Determine what surface and aloft met and aq conditions are associated with high and low PM days in urban areas
- Approach:  Assemble database of met and aq information, perform CART analysis
- Assigned to: Donna Kenski
- Status: preliminary CART for surface, 4 urban areas--need to expand, add upper air

## Regression Tree for Chicago

- South winds, high humidity, high pressure

- North winds, low humidity

- South winds, high humidity, low dewpoint (fall thru spring)

## Q:  How representative is the meteorology for 2001-2003 base period?

- Task:  Determine whether the 2001-2003 base period is appropriate for SIP planning
- Approach:  Compare 2001 meteorology (and future years when data become available) with past years and assess similarities and differences
- Assigned to:  Matt Harrell, IEPA
- Status:  Underway

## Slide 17

**Notes:**
Below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in May (-3.5 F, +1.01”)
Above average temperatures and near normal precipitation in June and July (June: +2.7 F, +0.98”) (July: +3.8 F, -0.83”)
June and July precipitation events were clustered, with long intervening dry periods
Near normal temperatures and significantly above average precipitation in August (+1.4 F, +3.44”)  
Above average temperatures and below normal precipitation in September (+3.6 F, -1.55”)
Note the 2 periods in June with identical peak temperatures on successive days
Highest temperature: 96 F (only 1 day with maximum temperature above 95 F)

## Q:  How representative is the meteorology for the June 19-24, 2002, ozone episode? 

- Task:  Characterize the meteorological conditions during the recent June ozone episode
- Approach: (1) Describe synoptic weather patterns (2) Apply CART tree to see what ‘branch’ fits best
- Assigned to: Matt Harrell (IEPA), Bill Adamski (WDNR), Donna Kenski
- Status: Underway

## June 22, 2002

- Comments:
-  Front moves northward then stalls again
-   in central Wisconsin
-  Winds shift to the SW (avg. 5.4 mph)
-  Area of high ozone expands to the north
-  Background remains high

**7:00 AM CDT**

**7:00 PM CDT**

**Lake Breeze**

## Q:  How have Title IV reductions in SO2 emissions affected SO2, SO4, and NO3 concentrations?

- Task:  Examine trends in sulfate and nitrate in eastern US since 1990
- Approach: Use Theil trend (all pairwise comparisons, nonparametric) on IMPROVE,  CASTNET, AIRS data
- Assigned to: Maria Witmer-Rich, MOG
- Status: Underway

## PM2.5 Trends(Composite data from IMPROVE sites in eastern U.S.)

## Q:  What can we say about PM-coarse across the region?

- Task:  Describe PM-coarse concentrations
- Approach:  Calculate PM-coarse concentrations, summarize daily and annual average concentrations, compare urban/rural/geographic variations
- Assigned to:  unassigned
- Status:  awaiting analyst

## Q:  How are PM2.5 and O3 related in our metro regions?

- Task:  Assess the relationship between PM2.5 and ozone
- Approach: Time series analysis describing PM2.5 as function of lagged PM, O3, and other AQ variables
- Assigned to: Mike Rizzo, USEPA R5
- Status:  Underway (PM10 results published)

## Q:  What wind directions are associated with high and low PM2.5 concentrations?

- Task:  Use wind roses to assess the local component of PM2.5 (in conjunction with back trajectories)
- Approach:  Construct wind roses from collocated or nearby met data for Midwest metropolitan regions
- Assigned to: Mike Rizzo
- Status: Underway

## 90th %ile PM2.5 Days

- 10th %ile PM2.5 Days

- Wind Rose for Chicago/Lawndale, All Days

## Q:  What areas are most likely to contribute to visibility impairment in Class 1 areas?

- Task:  Evaluate potential source areas with ensemble back trajectory analysis
- Approach: Prepare back trajectory plots for Class 1 areas for 20% best/worst days, high sulfate, nitrate, EC, OC, etc., for 1997-2000
- Assigned to: Donna Kenski
- Status: Underway

## Mammoth Cave Ensemble Trajectories

## Q:  What sources contribute significantly to urban PM2.5?

- Task:  Apply receptor model to speciation network data
- Approach:  CMB analysis of 1 year, 6 cities, 9 sites; compare to Battelle PMF analysis (St Louis, Milwaukee)
- Assigned to: Donna Kenski
- Status: 90% complete

## Slide 29

## Q:  What can we say about PM2.5 based on all these analyses? 

- Task:  Construct a conceptual model of PM2.5 in the Midwest
- Approach:  Consolidate the results of all PM2.5 and related analyses to describe the composition, formation, and behavior of PM2.5 in our region, begin to examine control strategies
- Assigned to:  Mike Koerber, Donna Kenski
- Status: Underway, draft report in preparation

## And just in case we need more data analysis...

- Aircraft data
- Drum sampling data from Detroit
- Special study data:  Nitrogen speciation, organic speciation
- Source apportionment of IMPROVE/Castnet continuing through DRI, Capita