# Presentation: 457023

## International Energy Outlook to 2030

**Administrator**
**Energy Information Administration**

**Dubai, United Arab Emirates**
**November 1, 2007**

***International Energy Outlook to 2030***
**Implications for the Gulf Region**

## The International Energy Outlook 2007 Projects...

- Worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 57 percent between 2004 and 2030.  The highest growth is projected for the developing countries.
- Persian Gulf producers provide 55 percent, or 14 million barrels per day, of the total increase in the world’s conventional liquids supply over the forecast.
- World unconventional production (including biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) accounts for 9 percent of the world liquids supply in 2030.
- Coal is the world’s fastest-growing fuel type in the outlook, increasing at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent. With oil and natural gas prices remaining high, coal is an attractive fuel for nations with access to ample resources, like China, India, and the United States, which account for 86 percent of the projected world coal demand increase.
- Higher fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns, improved reactor designs, and environmental considerations are expected to improve the prospects for nuclear power generation, which is 14 percent higher in 2030 than in last year’s outlook.
- Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030.

## World Marketed Energy Consumption(quadrillion Btu)

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

- History

- Projections

**240**

**207**

**298**

**404**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## Average Annual GDP and Population Growthfor Selected Regions, 2004-2030 (percent)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2005 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

**Reference**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**$100**

**$59**

**$36**

## World Oil Prices, 1980-2030

**World Oil Prices, 1980-2030**
**(nominal dollars per barrel)**

**$95**

**$157**

**$58**

- History

- Projections

**High Price**

**Reference**

**Low Price**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**34%**

**8%**

**28%**

**6%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

**24%**

**38%**

**26%**

**23%**

**7%**

**6%**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## World Liquids Consumption, 2004 and 2030(million barrels per day)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Liquids Production, 2004-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent)

**Non-OPEC (Conventional)**

**OPEC (Conventional)**

**Unconventional**

**Total**

**53**

**10**

**54**

**118**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## OPEC Conventional Liquids Production(million barrels per day)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## Proved Oil Reserves, as of January 1, 2007

**Proved Oil Reserves, as of January 1, 2007**

*Oil & Gas Journal*

## Estimated Ultimately Recoverable Oil in Fields   Larger than One Billon Barrels

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## Non-OPEC Producing Regions with More than a One-Million-Barrel-per-Day Increase in Production, (million barrels per day oil equivalent)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Unconventional Liquids Production, 1980-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent)

- Other includes shale oils and other unidentified sources of unconventional liquid fuels.

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## World Natural Gas Consumption, 2004-2030(trillion cubic feet)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Natural Gas Production, 2004-2030(trillion cubic feet)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## Proved Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2007

*Oil & Gas Journal*

## Estimated Ultimately Recoverable Natural Gas in Fields Larger than One Trillion Cubic Feet

**Estimated Ultimately Recoverable Natural Gas in Fields Larger than One Trillion Cubic Feet**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Coal Consumption, 2004-2030(quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## Non-OECD Net Electric Power Generation

**Non-OECD Net Electric Power Generation**
**(billion kilowatthours)**

**India**

**China**

**Other Asia**

**Europe/Eurasia**

**Central and South America**

**Africa**

**Middle East**

- History

- Projections

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region(billion metric tons)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-2030 (billion metric tons)

**Coal**

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Total**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

**43%**

**39%**

**40%**

**20%**

**36%**

**21%**

## Major Trends in the IEO2007

- Total world energy use rises by 57 percent in the reference case projection.
- The world oil prices in the *IEO2007* reference are projected to make previously uneconomical, unconventional resources available, and they provide 10.5 million barrels per day of the world supply by 2030.
- OPEC provides 55 percent of the total increment in liquids supply between 2005 and 2030, with Middle East OPEC accounting for 75 percent of OPEC’s  total increase.
- Coal is the fastest growing energy source worldwide, increasing at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent. Natural gas and renewables each increase by 1.9 percent per year.
- Energy use in the non-OECD exceeds energy use in the OECD by 2015; by 2030 non-OECD energy use is 34 percent higher than in the OECD
- China’s energy consumption is 14 quadrillion Btu, or 11 percent, higher than in the United States by 2030.
- Carbon dioxide emissions in China will soon surpass those of the United States and, by 2030, China’s emissions exceed U.S. emissions by 41 percent.

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2007*****, February 2007**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2007*****, May 2007**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2007***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****Dec 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
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**www.eia.doe.gov**