# Presentation: 004621

## NCEP Production Suite Review - 2008

- EMC Senior Staff

**NCEP Production Suite**
**Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems**

## Overview

**Introduction to meeting**
**New Building**
**EMC management changes**
**NOMADS status**
**N****ational ****E****nvironmental ****M****odeling ****S****ystem (****NEMS****)**
**Evolution of the NCEP Production Suite**

## Intro to meeting

- Largest participation yet
- EMC and field paired presentations on
- Marine
- Regional
- NAM
- RUC
- RTMA, etc
- Global
- Hurricanes
- Seasonal climate
- Space weather
- Special Presentations
- Ecosystems
- New COMET NWP course
- Data assimilation
- Drought
- Hydrology and water resource applications
- Ensembles and post processing
- Last in this building (some forecast uncertainty)

## NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

**NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction**

| Construction Start | 09-May-07 |
| --- | --- |
| Move Start | May 09 |
| Move Complete | January 10 |

## NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

**NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction**

| Construction Start | 09-May-07 |
| --- | --- |
| Move Start | May 09 |
| Move Complete | January 10 |

## EMC Management Changes

- EMC Deputy Director – **Bill Lapenta**
- EMC Visiting scientist at Boulder DTC - **Naomi Surgi**
- Focus on NEMS Software Engineering - **Mark Iredell**
- Global Branch Chief – **John Ward**

## Service

| Marine & Coastal Ocean
H. Tolman | Mesoscale Atmosphere
G. DiMego | Global Climate & Weather
Atmosphere & Ocean
J. Ward | 
Science |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| X | X | X | Data Assimilation
    Leader: J. Derber |
|  | X | X | Climate
    Leader: H.-L. Pan |
| X | X | X | Model
   Atmosphere/Ocean/Ice
      Dynamics
      Physics |
| X | X | X | Land Surface/Hydrology
   Leader: K. Mitchell |
| X | X | X | Ensembles & Probabilistic Guidance
   Leader: Z. Toth |
| X | X | X | Hurricanes
   Leader: N. Surgi |
| X | X | X | Products
   Development
   Utilization |

_**Service**_

**Environmental Modeling Center Service-Science Linkage**

## Real Time model data and applications for slicing, dicing and area sub-setting NCEP model data. These services will become “high availability” (24/7) at the Web Operations Center (WOC) http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov Thursday, December 18, 2008. High Availability server is mirrored (3 locations), owned by NOAA CIO which also handles NCEP anonymous ftp server (ftpprd).

- For details see Jordan Alpert	_[jordan.alpert@noaa.gov](mailto:jordan.alpert@noaa.gov)_

- Real Time model data and applications for slicing, dicing and area sub-setting NCEP model data. **These services will become “high availability” (24/7) at the Web Operations Center (WOC) **_[http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov](http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/)_** Thursday, December 18, 2008.** High Availability server is mirrored (3 locations), owned by NOAA CIO which also handles NCEP anonymous ftp server (ftpprd).

**NOMADS is a distributed system with servers from different locations/agencies using the same protocol to distribute model and other data.**

- National Center’s for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Real Time model data from NOAA’s Operational Models
- Archives of model and other data at the  National Climate Data Center (NCDC).
- Other participations are GFDL, PMEL, NCAR, NASA for research data

## NEMS: Forces for Change

- NEMS: Forces for Change

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**Model Region 1**

**Model Region 2**

**Global/Regional Model Domain**

- ESMF-based System

- Increasing emphasis on ensemble approaches
- Multi-model ensembles
**SREF**
**NAEFS**
**Hurricane (GFSL & HWRF)**
**Climate Forecast System (?)**
- Entering the NPOESS era
- More rapid access to                                                         hyperspectral data
- GPS soundings
- Higher resolution surface
-      imagery
- All models run within ESMF
- Models run concurrently
- Hybrid vertical coordinate
- Coupled
- Spanning all time, space scales
- Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications

## National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)(uses standard ESMF compliant software)

**--------------**
**Ocean**
**-------------**
**Wind Waves**
**--------------**
**LSM**
**--------------**
**AQ**
**--------------**
**Ens. Gen.**
**--------------**
**Other**

- Physics
- (1,2,3)

- ESMF Utilities
- (clock, error handling, etc)

**Bias Corrector**
**Post processor & Product Generator**
**Verification**
**Resolution change**

- 1-1
**1****-2**
**1****-3**
**2-****1**
- 2-2
**2-3**

**ESMF Superstructure**
**(component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)**

- Multi-component ensemble
- +
- Stochastic forcing

- Coupler1
- Coupler2
- Coupler3
- Coupler4
- Coupler5
- Coupler6
- Etc.

- Dynamics
- (1,2)

- Application Driver

**N****ational ****E****nvironmental ****M****odeling ****S****ystem (****NEMS****)****(uses standard ESMF compliant software)**

- * **Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL**

**2, 3 etc: NCEP supported thru NUOPC, NASA, NCAR or NOAA institutional commitments**
**Components are: Dynamics (spectral, FV, NMM, FIM, ARW, FISL, COAMPS...)/Physics (GFS, NRL, NCAR, GMAO, ESRL...)**

**Atmospheric Model**

## Planned NEMS Capabilities

- Modeling Research
- Global and regional
- Institutionally supported components
- Atmosphere
**GFS (NCEP)**
**FV (NASA, GFDL)**
**NMM (NCEP)**
**ARW (ESRL, NCAR, AFWA)**
**FIM (ESRL)**
**FISL (NCEP)**
- Ocean
**MOM4 (GFDL)**
**HYCOM (NCEP, Navy)**
- Land surface and hydrology
**Noah (NCEP)**
**VIC (Princeton, U. Wash)**
**MOSAIC (NASA)**
**Sacramento (OHD)**
**Smirnova LSM (ESRL)**
- Air Quality and trace gases
**CMAQ (EPA, ARL)**
**GOCART (NASA)**

- Beta testing
- Under construction
- Will include in future

## Planned NEMS Capabilities (cont)

**Operational Models (NCEP only)**
- Global Forecast System
**GFS**
- Global Ensemble (GENS, NAEFS)
**GFS**
- North American (NAM)
**NMM**
- Short-range Ensemble (SREF)
**NMM**
**ARW**
- Physics diversity
- High Resolution Window (HRW)
**NMM**
**ARW**
- Air Quality (AQ)
**CMAQ**
- Land Surface & Hydrology (LIS)
**Noah**
- Rapid Refresh (RR) Ensemble
**ARW Dynamics + GSD physics**
**NMM dynamics + NCEP physics**
- Hurricane (HUR)
**NMM for hurricanes**
**HYCOM + Wavewatch**
- Seasonal Climate Forecast (CFS)
**GFS for climate**
**MOM4**

- Will include in
- Operational NEMS

## Criteria for Inclusion in NEMS

- Research
- Adherence to ESMF standards
- Institutional support for code
- Participation in system evolution
- Operations
- Research criteria plus:
- Standard “Transition to Operations” criteria
- NCEP: _[http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/)_
- Forecast performance benefits
- IT compatibility
- Efficiency
- Sustainability
- AMOP (Navy)
- AFWA IPT process (USAF)

## Current - 2007

**GDAS**

**GFS anal**

**NAM anal**

**CFS**

**RTOFS**

**SREF**

**NAM**

**AQ**

**GFS**

**HUR**

**RDAS**

**Current (2007)**

**GENS/NAEFS**

**Current - 2007**

**NCEP Production Suite**
**Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems**

## NCEP Production Suite

- MFS

**WAV**

**CFS & MFS**

**GENS/NAEFS**

**GFS**

**Next Generation Prototype**
**Phase 4**

**Regional**

**Rap Refresh**

**Global**

**HUR**

**SREF**

**Reforecast**

**Hydro / NIDIS/FF**

**Hydro**

**NAM**

**GDAS**

**RDAS**

**RTOFS**

**RTOFS**

**AQ**

**NCEP Production Suite**
**Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems**

**AQ**

-      Added
-  Hourly GDAS
-      Moved
-  GFS, WAV
-    concurrent
-    to NAM & SREF
-     Expanded
-  Hurricane
-    capability (hires)

## ThanksQuestions?

## NCEP Production Suite

- CFS
- MFS

**WAV**

**GFS**

**Regional**

**Rap Refresh**

**Global**

**SREF**

**Reforecast**

**Hydro**

**NAM**

**GDAS**

**RDAS**

**RTOFS**

**RTOFS**

**CFS & MFS**

**AQ**

**Hydro / NIDIS/FF**

**AQ**

**GENS/NAEFS**

**>100% of 2015 **
**computing**

**Next Generation Prototype**
**Final Phase**

**NCEP Production Suite**
**Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems**

**GLOBAL NEXTGEN**

**HUR**

**Computing factor: > 240**

- ECOSYSTEMS

**SPACE WEATHER**

**HENS**

## EMC Mission

**In response to operational requirements:**
**Maintain**
- the scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast systems
- modify current operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes
**Enhance** numerical forecasts
- Test and improve NCEP’s numerical forecast systems via
- Scientific upgrades
- Tuning
- Additional observations
**Transition**** ****and Develop**** o**perational numerical forecast systems
**transform & integrate**
- Code
- Algorithms
- Techniques
**from research status to operational status** on NCEP computers

## Ingredients for Improved Numerical Forecast Systems

**Primary ingredients**
**Observations**
**Data Assimilation & Model technology**
**Computing resources**
**Secondary ingredients**
**Post-processing and dissemination**
**Research to Operations (R2O) process**

## Planned NEMS Capabilities

- Components and capabilities of the NEMS infrastructure
- Configuration control
- Domain
- Resolution (horizontal, vertical)
- Standardized fixed field generation (WPS - topography, land use, etc)
- Tracer definition
- Observations ingest, formatting, QC, general I/O libraries
- Nesting (static and moving, telescoping, 1-way, 2-way)
- Concurrent ensemble execution (single executable, multiple members)
- Data assimilation (3D-var and advanced techniques)
- In-core updating for analysis increments and boundary conditions
- Model dynamics and physics including
- Atmosphere
- Ocean
- Land surface and hydrology
- Air Quality and trace gases
- Post-processor and product generator
- Standard operational verification
- Documentation for operational and research users

## NCEP Production Suite

**Reforecast**

**GFS Anal**

**NAM**** Anal**

**CFS & MFS**

**GFS**

**WAV**

**HUR**

**GENS/NAEFS**

**Next Generation Prototype**
**Phase 3**

**GDAS**

**SREF**

**RDAS**

**RTOFS**

**NAM**

**NCEP Production Suite**
**Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems**

**AQ**

**Hydro / NIDIS/FF**

**AQ**

**Computing factor: 27**

-      Added
-  Flash flood
-    products
-      Moved
-  SREF concurrent
-    to NAM
-     Expanded
-  Reforecast
-    capability

## NCEP Production Suite

**Reforecast**

**NAM**** anal**

**CFS**

**SREF**

**NAM**

**GFS**

**WAV**

**HUR**

**Next Generation Prototype**
**Phase 1**

**3-hourly GDAS (2)**

**1-hourly RDAS (6)**

**GENS/NAEFS**

**RTOFS**

- AQ

**GFS Anal**

**NCEP Production Suite**
**Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems**

-       Added
-  1-Hourly RDAS
-  3-Hourly GDAS
-  Reanalysis/
-    Reforecast

**Computing factor: 3**

## NCEP Production Suite

**Reforecast**

**GFS Anal**

**NAM**** Anal**

**CFS & MFS**

**GFS**

**WAV**

**HUR**

**GENS/NAEFS**

**Next Generation Prototype**
**Phase 2**

**GDAS**

**SREF**

**RDAS**

**RTOFS**

**Hydro / NIDIS**

**AQ**

**NAM**

**NCEP Production Suite**
**Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems**

**AQ**

-      Added
-  Hydro/NIDIS
-    products
-       Moved
-  GFS 1⁄2 h earlier
-     Expanded
-  Hurricane & wave
-    products
-     Incorporated
-  Multi-domain
-    rapid updating

**Computing factor: 9**

## Better

- Than
- UKMO

- Worse
- Than
- UKMO

**UKMO**
**4D-VAR**
**implemented**

**NCEP GSI**
**implemented**

**Notes:**
Figure shows performance relative to the UK Met Office global model.  The performance measure is a basket of standard scores such as root-mean-square error of Temperature, surface pressure and more at 24, 48, 72 hours and longer.  The number of forecast measures is 22.  This picture shows the unweighted average of the 22 measures.  The zero line is the UKMO performance, below zero is better than UKMO, above the line is worse.  The NCEP performance is in red and is worse since 2003.  In 2002, order of performance was ECMWF best, UKMO and NCEP in second, Japan third and Canada last.  In 2007, the order is ECMWF barely in first, UKMO second, Japan third and NCEP fourth.

## Community-based Development

**Strategy and roles: **
**Focus on **_**single component**_** instead of entire model system**
_**Collaborative**_**, not competitive**
- NCEP/EMC
- Maintains _primary components_ for each part of Production Suite and _for each application_
- Supports ESMF applications in operations
- In collaboration with community
- Integrates new ESMF-based components into operations
- Performs final testing and preparation of upgrades of supported components in operations
_**Collaborators**_
- Provide
- Component upgrades to be tested in operational setting
- Institutional support for their contributed components
- Diversity and expertise complementary to operations
- Work through DTC, JCSDA, CTB, etc.
**Examples of current and potential collaborators**
**OAR/GSD**
- Model enhancements
- Aviation applications, including products and physics component
**NASA-(GMAO, HSB)**
- Data assimilation (atmosphere, ocean, land)
- Finite-volume (FV) model
- Physics (aerosol, land surface)
- ESMF-based components (e.g. physics)
**NRL**
- Aerosol physics and analysis
- ESMF-based model structure (atmosphere, ocean)
- Physics component
- Operational ensemble generation and processing
**NMFS**
- Fishery ecosystems

-  **NCAR**
-  ARW dynamics
-  Physics components
** ****NWS/OHD**
-  Land & Hydrological models for
-  Streamflow
-  Flash floods
-  Precipitation analysis
-  **NOS**
-  Dynamic storm surge
-  Coastal ecosystems
-  Water quality
** ****Universities**
-  Specific physics upgrades