# Presentation: 591081

## Integrated Dynamic Ecological Economic Modeling (GUMBO et al.)

- Robert Costanza
- Gund Professor of Ecological Economics
- and Director, Gund Institute of Ecological Economics
- Rubenstein School of Environment & Natural Resources
- The University of Vermont
- Burlington, VT 05405-1708
- email: Robert.Costanza@uvm.edu

**http://www.uvm.edu/giee**

## Integrated Dynamic Ecological Economic Modeling

**• ****Used as a Consensus Building Tool in an**
**	****Open, Participatory Process**
**• ****Multi-scale, Landscape Scale and Larger**
**• ****Acknowledges Uncertainty and **
**	****Limited Predictability**
**• ****Acknowledges Values of Stakeholders**
**• ****Simplifies by Maintaining Linkages and**
**   ****	****and Synthesizing**
**• ****Evolutionary Approach Acknowledges History, **
**        ****Limited Optimization, and the Co-Evolution**
**        ****of Humans and the Rest of Nature**

**Integrated Dynamic Ecological Economic Modeling**

## Slide 3

## Spatial Extent

**Modules**

** **

**Site/Patch**

**Unit Models**

** **

**Small Watersheds**

** **

**Large Watersheds**

** **

**Global**

** **

**Natural Capital**

**Built Capital**

**  ****Human Capital**

**Social Capital**

- hydrology,

- nutrients,

- plants

- buildings,

- roads,

- power grid

- population,

- education,

- employment,

- income

- institutions,

- networks,

- well being

- Biome BGC,
- UFORE

- General Ecosystem Model (GEM)

- Everglades Landscape Model (ELM)
- Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM)
- Gwyns Falls Landscape Model (GFLM)

- General Unified Metamodel of the BiOsphere (GUMBO)

- RHESSys

- HSPF

**Spatial Extent**

- Suite of interactive and intercalibrated models over a range of spatial, temporal and system scales (extents and resolutions)

## Ln of Resolution

**Ln of Resolution**

- Higher

- (smaller grain)

- Lower

- (larger grain)

**Ln of Predictability**

**Data Predictability**

**Model Predictability**

- (different models have different slopes and points of intersection)

- "Optimum" resolutions for particular models

## GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the BiOsphere)

**From: **Boumans, R.,  R. Costanza, J. Farley, M. A. Wilson, R. Portela, J. Rotmans, F. Villa, and M. Grasso. 2002. Modeling the Dynamics of the Integrated Earth System and the Value of Global Ecosystem Services Using the GUMBO Model. *Ecological Economics *41: 529-560

**Notes:**
At the Gund Institute, a Global Unified Metamodel of the BiOsphere (GUMBO) has been developed to simulate the integrated earth system and assess the dynamics and values of ecosystem services.  It is a “metamodel” in that it represents a synthesis and a simplification of several existing dynamic global models in both the natural and social sciences at an intermediate level of complexity. The current version of the model contains 234 state variables, 930 variables total, and 1715 parameters.  

GUMBO is the first global model to include the dynamic feedbacks among human technology, economic production and welfare, and ecosystem goods and services within the dynamic earth system. GUMBO includes modules to simulate carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes through the Atmosphere, Lithosphere, Hydrosphere, and Biosphere of the global system. Social and economic dynamics are simulated within the Anthroposphere.  GUMBO links these five spheres across eleven biomes, which together encompass the entire surface of the planet.  The dynamics of ten major ecosystem services for each of the biomes are simulated and evaluated.  Historical calibrations from 1900 to 2000, and a range of future scenarios representing different assumptions about future technological change, investment strategies and other factors have been simulated. 

The relative value of ecosystem services in terms of their contribution to supporting both conventional economic production and human well-being more broadly defined were estimated under each scenario, and preliminary conclusions drawn.  The value of global ecosystem services was estimated to be about 4.5 times the value of Gross World Product (GWP) in the year 2000 using this approach.  The model can be downloaded and run on the average PC to allow users to explore for themselves the complex dynamics of the system and the full range of policy assumptions and scenarios. 

## Anthroposphere

- Marc Imhoff
- Biospheric Sciences Branch
- NASA

## Slide 8

## Human impacts on global biology and material cycles

**Human impacts on global biology and material cycles**

## Atmosphere

## Slide 11

## Weather-related economic damages have increased

**Weather-related economic damages have increased**

## Biosphere

## “Full World” Model of the Ecological Economic System

- Human Capital

- Economic

- Production

- Process

- Goods

- and

- Services

- Evolving

- Cultural

- Norms and

- Policy

- Well Being

- (Individual and

- Community)

- Consumption

- (based on changing,

- adapting

- preferences)

- Education, training,

- research.

- Building

- Investment

- (decisions about, taxes

- community spending,

- education, science and

- technology  policy, etc., based

- on complex property

- rights regimes)

- Individual

- Public

- GNP

**Wastes**

- Common

- Ecological

- services/

- amenities

- having, being

- - having,

- - being

- negative impacts on all forms of capital

- being, doing, relating

- Restoration,

- Conservation

- Natural Capital

- Manufactured

- Capital

- having

- positive impacts on human capital capacity

- doing, relating

- Complex property

- rights regimes

- Solar

- Energy

- SocialCapital

- Limited Substitutability

- Between Capital Forms

- “Full World” Model of the Ecological Economic System

- Waste heat

- Institutional

- rules, norms, etc.

- Materially closed earth system

- From: Costanza, R., J. C. Cumberland, H. E. Daly, R. Goodland, and R. Norgaard. 1997. An Introduction to Ecological Economics. St. Lucie Press, Boca Raton, 275 pp.

## COOL POWERPOINT 1-from ESR

## Comparison Between Quality of Life and Its Components Between

- Burlington VT, and a Selection of Intentional Communities

## Slide 17

## ISEW (or GPI) by Column

- _ISEW (or GPI) by Column_

## Slide 19

## Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) per capita

## Ecosystem Services and Functions

**ECOSYSTEM SERVICES **

**Gas regulation **

**Climate regulation **

**Disturbance regulation **

**Water regulation **

**Water supply **

**Erosion control and sediment retention **

**Soil formation **

**Nutrient cycling **

**Waste treatment **

**Pollination **

**Biological control **

**Refugia**** **

**Food production **

**Raw materials **

**Genetic resources **

**Recreation **

**Cultural**** **

**ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS **

- Regulation of atmospheric chemical composition.

- Regulation of global temperature, precipitation, and other biologically mediated

- climatic processes at global, regional,  or local levels.

- Capacitance, damping and integrity of ecosystem response to environmental

-  fluctuations such as sea level rise.

- Regulation of hydrological flows.

- Storage and retention of water.

- Retention of soil within an ecosystem.

- Soil formation processes.

- Storage, internal cycling, processing, and acquisition of nutrients.

- Recovery of  mobile nutrients and removal or breakdown of excess or

-  xenic nutrients and compounds.

- Movement of floral gametes.

- Trophic-dynamic regulations of populations.

- Habitat for resident and transient populations.

- That portion of gross primary production extractable as food.

- That portion of gross primary production extractable as raw materials.

- Sources of unique biological materials and products.

- Providing opportunities  for recreational activities.

- Providing opportunities  for non-commercial uses.

***Ecosystem Services and Functions***

## GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the BiOsphere)

**From: **Boumans, R.,  R. Costanza, J. Farley, M. A. Wilson, R. Portela, J. Rotmans, F. Villa, and M. Grasso. 2002. Modeling the Dynamics of the Integrated Earth System and the Value of Global Ecosystem Services Using the GUMBO Model. *Ecological Economics *41: 529-560

**Notes:**
At the Gund Institute, a Global Unified Metamodel of the BiOsphere (GUMBO) has been developed to simulate the integrated earth system and assess the dynamics and values of ecosystem services.  It is a “metamodel” in that it represents a synthesis and a simplification of several existing dynamic global models in both the natural and social sciences at an intermediate level of complexity. The current version of the model contains 234 state variables, 930 variables total, and 1715 parameters.  

GUMBO is the first global model to include the dynamic feedbacks among human technology, economic production and welfare, and ecosystem goods and services within the dynamic earth system. GUMBO includes modules to simulate carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes through the Atmosphere, Lithosphere, Hydrosphere, and Biosphere of the global system. Social and economic dynamics are simulated within the Anthroposphere.  GUMBO links these five spheres across eleven biomes, which together encompass the entire surface of the planet.  The dynamics of ten major ecosystem services for each of the biomes are simulated and evaluated.  Historical calibrations from 1900 to 2000, and a range of future scenarios representing different assumptions about future technological change, investment strategies and other factors have been simulated. 

The relative value of ecosystem services in terms of their contribution to supporting both conventional economic production and human well-being more broadly defined were estimated under each scenario, and preliminary conclusions drawn.  The value of global ecosystem services was estimated to be about 4.5 times the value of Gross World Product (GWP) in the year 2000 using this approach.  The model can be downloaded and run on the average PC to allow users to explore for themselves the complex dynamics of the system and the full range of policy assumptions and scenarios. 

## Global Unified Metamodel of the BiOsphere (GUMBO)

- was developed to simulate the integrated earth system and assess the dynamics and values of ecosystem services.
- is a “metamodel” in that it represents a synthesis and a simplification of several existing dynamic global models in both the natural and social sciences at an intermediate level of complexity.
- the current version of the model contains 234 state variables, 930 variables total, and 1715 parameters.
- is the first global model to include the dynamic feedbacks among human technology, economic production and welfare, and ecosystem goods and services within the dynamic earth system.
- includes modules to simulate carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes through the *Atmosphere*, *Lithosphere*, *Hydrosphere*, and *Biosphere* of the global system. Social and economic dynamics are simulated within the *Anthroposphere*.
- links these five spheres across eleven biomes, which together encompass the entire surface of the planet.
- simulates the dynamics of eleven major ecosystem goods and services for each of the biomes

## Economic Production

**Knowledge**

**GOODS **
**& **
**SERVICES**

**Knowledge Formation**

**Built Capital Formation**

**Social Capital Formation**

**Social Capital**

**Labor Force**

**Ecosystem Goods Production**

**Fossil Fuel Extraction**

**Organic Matter Harvested**

**Ecosystem Services Production**

**Ore Production**

**Economic **
**Production**

**Natural Capital Formation**

**Water use**

**WASTE**

**Disturbance Regulation**

**Gas Regulation**

**Climate Regulation**

**Soil Formation**

**Recreation and Cultural Services**

**Plant Nutrient Uptake**

**Waste Assimilation Potential**

**Personal Consumption**

**Economic Production**

- -

- Savings rates

## Welfare

**Welfare**

**Welfare from human made capital**

**Knowledge**

**Social Capital**

**- Welfare from waste**

**Welfare from consumption**

**Welfare from Ecosystem Services**

**Built Capital**

## Slide 26

## Slide 27

## Slide 28

## Slide 29

## Slide 30

## Slide 31

## In Conclusion:The main objective in creating the GUMBO model was not to accurately predict the future, but to provide simulation capabilities and a knowledge base to facilitate integrated participation in modeling.  It should be noted that this is “version 1.0” of the model.  It will undergo substantial changes and improvements as we continue to develop it, and the conclusions offered here can only be thought of as “preliminary.”   Nevertheless, we can reach some important conclusions from the work so far, including:To our knowledge, no other global models have yet achieved the level of dynamic integration between the biophysical earth system and the human socioeconomic system incorporated in GUMBO.Preliminary calibration results across a broad range of variables show very good agreement with historical data.  This builds confidence in the model and also constrains future scenarios.  •	We produced a range of scenarios that represent what we thought were reasonable rates of change of key parameters and investment policies, and these bracketed a range of future possibilities that can serve as a basis for further discussions, assessments, and improvements.  Users are free to change these parameters further and observe the results.Assessing global sustainability can only be done using a dynamic integrated model of the type we have created in GUMBO.  But one is still left with decisions about what to sustain (i.e. GWP, welfare, welfare per capita, etc.)  GUMBO allows these decisions to be made explicitly and in the context of the complex world system.   It allows both desirable and sustainable futures to be examined. Ecosystem services are highly integrated into the model, both in terms of the biophysical functioning of the earth system and in the provision of human welfare.  Both their physical and value dynamics are shown to be quite complex.The overall value of ecosystem services, in terms of their relative contribution to both the production and welfare functions, is shown to be significantly higher than GWP (4.5 times in this preliminary version of the model).“Skeptical” investment policies are shown to have the best chance (given uncertainty about key parameters) of achieving high and sustainable welfare per capita.  This means increased relative rates of investment in knowledge, social capital, and natural capital, and reduced investment in built capital and consumption.

- To our knowledge, no other global models have yet achieved the level of dynamic integration between the biophysical earth system and the human socioeconomic system incorporated in GUMBO.  This is an important first step.
- Historical calibrations from 1900 to 2000 for 14 key variables for which quantitative time series data was available produced an average R2 of .922.
- A range of future scenarios representing different assumptions about future technological change, investment strategies and other factors have been simulated
-  Assessing global sustainability can only be done using a dynamic integrated model of the type we have created in GUMBO.  But one is still left with decisions about *what* to sustain (i.e. GWP, welfare, welfare per capita, etc.)  GUMBO allows these decisions to be made explicitly and in the context of the complex world system.   It allows both desirable and sustainable futures to be examined.
- Ecosystem services are highly integrated into the model, both in terms of the biophysical functioning of the earth system and in the provision of human welfare.  Both their physical and value dynamics are shown to be quite complex.
- The overall value of ecosystem services, in terms of their relative contribution to both the production and welfare functions, is shown to be significantly higher than GWP (4.5 times in this preliminary version of the model).
- “Technologically skeptical” investment policies are shown to have the best chance (given uncertainty about key parameters) of achieving high and sustainable welfare per capita.  This means increased relative rates of investment in knowledge, social capital, and natural capital, and reduced relative rates of consumption and investment in built capital.

**GUMBO Conclusions**