# Presentation: 745965

## Regional Energy Profile

- Forum on Energy Preparedness
*Metropolitan Washington *
*Council of Governments*

- Alice Lippert and Douglas MacIntyre
- Energy Information Administration
- November 13, 2000

## West Texas IntermediateCrude Oil Prices

**Sources: History:  EIA;  Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2000.**

**Notes:**
World oil prices have nearly tripled from their low point in December 1998 to August this year, pulling product prices up as well.  But crude prices are expected to show a gradual decline as increased oil production from OPEC and others enters the world oil market.  We expect to see some decline over the next two months as prices are expected to end the year at about $30 per barrel.
The average price of WTI was almost $30 per barrel in March, but dropped to $26 in April as the market responded to the additional OPEC production.
However, prices strengthened again, averaging $30-$32 in July through August.  In September, prices increased again to nearly $34, but then decreased to $33 in October. 
These crude oil  price projections reflect: 
Fairly low world demand growth during 2000 of 1.5 percent, or 1.1 million barrels per day.
Non-OPEC production growth during 2000 of almost 1.2 million barrels per day.
Growth in Iraqi crude oil production of 600 thousand barrels per day from Q1 to Q4 2000.  Iraqi crude oil production is estimated at about 3.0 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2000.
Growing OPEC 10 crude oil production throughout 2000.
Slow projected inventory build of nearly 1.0 million barrels per day in 2000 and 0.7 million barrels per day in 2001.

## U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Outlook

**Sources: History:  EIA;  Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2000.**

**Notes:**
Like the rest of the OECD countries, US petroleum inventories are low and are not expected to recover to the normal range this winter.

Preliminary data for the end of October indicate it may be the lowest level for crude oil stocks in the United States since weekly data began being collected in 1982, when crude oil inputs to refineries were about 3-4 million barrels per day less than today.  

U.S. crude oil stocks stood at about 283 million barrels on November 3, according to EIA’s latest weekly survey.  This puts them about 21 million barrels or 7% below the level seen at the same time last year.  Current market conditions do suggest some improvement in the near term.

Days supply of commercial crude oil stocks in the United States is estimated to have been 19 days in October, the lowest for that month since at least 1963. Some improvement is seen through the end of the year, reflecting the expected continuing increases in OPEC production and the oil released under the SPR exchange announced in late September.

## U.S. Distillate Inventory Outlook

**Sources: History:  EIA;  Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2000.**

**Notes:**
When EIA’s demand forecast is combined with its outlook for production and net imports, distillate stocks are projected to remain low for the rest of the year.
- Distillate fuel stocks for November 3 were very low at 116 million barrels.  This is about 17% less than last year, and about 15% below the 10 year average for early November levels.  

Our forecast now shows inventories peaking prior to this heating oil season at 122 million barrels, much less than is typical, due in part to the lack of a significant stock build in August, September, and October.  These low inventories will put upward pressure on distillate fuel prices and set the stage for price sun-ups should there be an extended period of cold weather or a serious supply problem.

## Distillate Stocks Low – Especially On East Coast

**Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly**

**Notes:**
Distillate stocks remain below average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel stocks on the East Coast, roughly 40 million barrels, are 35% behind year-ago levels, and 38% below early November 10-year average levels. 

New England inventories at 5.2 million barrels are 60% less than the 10-year average for early November, and 64% less than last year at this time.

## Natural Gas Prices: Well Above Recent Averages

**Source: Gas Daily**

- Natural Gas Prices: Well Above Recent Averages

**Notes:**
The recent surge in spot prices at the Henry Hub are well above a typical range for 1998-1999 (in this context, defined as the average, +/- 2 standard deviations). EIA’s forecast has natural gas prices gradually declining after the winter heating season, but still remaining high by historical standards. 

Several factors have come together recently that have pushed spot gas prices up sharply and which are expected to reverse the downward trend in in real gas prices for the next year or so:
 U.S. gas production has been relatively flat.	
 Expected demand is high under normal weather assumptions.
 Gas storage levels are below normal.	
 Alternative fuel (oil) markets are tight.

## End of Month Working Gas in Storage

**Sources: History:  EIA;  Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2000**

***Proj.***

- End of Month Working Gas in Storage

**Notes:**
The level of gas in storage at the end of the last heating season (March 31, 2000) was 1,150 billion cubic feet (Bcf), just above the 1995-1999 average of 1,139 Bcf.

Underground working gas storage levels are currently about 8-9 percent below year-ago levels.

In large part, this is because injection rates since April 1 have been below average. 

Storage injections picked up recently due to warm weather in the last half of October. The month of November is generally the last month available in the year for injections into storage. A cold November would curtail net injections into storage.

If net injections continue at average levels this winter, we project that storage levels will be low all winter, reaching a level of 818 Bcf at the end of March, the lowest level since 1996. 

## Energy Consumption by Source

- Source:  EIA, State Energy Data Report 1997

**Notes:**
The chart depicts an energy profile of the tri-State area.  Knowing what fuels your State uses, is important should an energy event or supply problem occur.

This chart shows how DC, MD, and VA use energy compared to the United States as a whole.  As you can see, petroleum products make-up a good share of the energy consumption.  That’s because most of the energy consumed is in the transportation sector.

As you can see the District of Columbia in not only dependent on petroleum but on natural gas as well.  MD and VA also use natural gas, but also use coal and nuclear and some hydro power.  These fuels are important in the production of electricity.

## State Residential Energy Consumption Shares

- Source:  EIA, State Energy Data Report 1997

**Notes:**
This next slide shows what fuels are used in the residential market.  When a energy supply event happens, particularly severe winter weather, it is this sector that the government becomes most concerned about.

As you can see, natural gas is very important to the residential sector not only in DC, MD and VA but in the United States as well.

DC residents use more natural gas for home heating than do MD and VA.  While residents use heating oil in all three states, this fuel plays an important role in  MD and VA.  Note:  kerosene is included in the distillate category because it is an important fuel to rural households in MD and VA.  

MD and VA rely more on electricity than DC.  Both MD and VA use propane as well.  

While there are some similarities in this chart, it is interesting to note that the three States do use different fuels for their residential heating needs.

##  Residential Heating Oil Prices

- 2000/2001

- Source:  EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report

- 1999/2000

**Notes:**
This chart highlights residential heating oil prices for the current and past heating season.

As you can see, prices have started the heating season, about 40 to 50 cents per gallon higher than last year at this time.

The data presented are from EIA’s State Heating Oil and Propane Program.  We normally collect and publish this data twice a month, but given the low stocks and high prices, we started tracking the prices weekly.

These data will also be used to determine the price trigger mechanism for the Northeast Heating Oil Reserve.

The data are published at a State and regional level on our web site.

The slide is to give you some perspective of what is happening in these markets, since you probably will get a number of calls from local residents about their heating fuels bills.

## Winter Fuels Outlook 2000-2001

**Winter Fuels Outlook 2000-2001**

**Sources: History:  EIA;  Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2000.**

**Notes:**
This chart depicts what consumers can expect to pay for their natural gas, heating oil, and propane bills this heating season.

We do show that consumers will be paying between 25 to 44 percent more for their heating this season compared to last. 

As pointed out, this is mostly due to higher crude oil prices.  The model does assume normal weather hence demand would be up since we’ve had fairly mild winters the past three years.  If the weather is normal we can expect to have consumers use more and that coupled with higher prices will result in higher heating bills.

## Where to Find EIA Information

- Web Site:  www.eia.doe.gov
- Publications
- Analysis
- Features
- List Serve
- NEIC - 202-586-8800
- Hotline - 202-586-6966
- CD-ROM - OGIRS
- People/Contacts

**Notes:**
We get lots of inquiries for data at EIA.

The information we presented can be obtained from us in a variety of ways.  You can call the NEIC at 202-586-8800.  They are our clearinghouse for information requests and data inquiries.  We have a diesel and gasoline hotline which contains weekly prices of these fuels.  The diesel number our very important to our trucking industry.  Last month we had over 49000 calls on the hotline.

We also produce a CD-ROM that has numerous publications as well as data base applications on it.  One such application is OGIRS (Oil and Gas Information Research System).  This application contains thousands of data series on petroleum and other fuels.

One of the quickest way to access data though is through our web site.

## EIA Main Page

**Notes:**
This is an example of our main page.  This design is fairly new.

I’m going to show you how to access the State-level data since I believe many of you are interested in this data.  EIA has tons of State-level data available by fuel, prices, volumes, end-use sector.

To find State-level data, you start with the geography button, then select State.

## States Page

**Notes:**
This brings you to a map of the US.  Here, you can select any State you want and get specific information unique to that State.

If you’re looking for information on a multi-state basis you hit the multi-state button and it would look like...

## Multi-State

**Notes:**
This is where you could collectively find information about a group of States or regions.

## State Specific

**Notes:**
If you choose to select a specific state you’d be prompted with this page and of course you can select information unique to MD for example.

## State Energy Profile

**Notes:**
For example, I choose VA and got an overview of VA how energy is used in this State.

Here’s where you could fine tune your request and break out consumption in VA by end-use sector.

Anyway, there’s lots of information and I would recommend you or your staff familiarize yourself with this site.

## Special Page

**Notes:**
Since many of you are probably interested in heating fuels for the winter, EIA has also designed specific or special web pages highlighting certain fuels.  We find during certain times of the year, users look for certain energy information. 

For example, last year when heating prices spiked during Jan and Feb, we designed a page to highlight information on propane and heating oil. We also have a gasoline and diesel page because these fuels are important during the driving season.  

The page has information about stocks, production, imports and prices. 

We’ve provided links to various agencies/organizations and sites which may be relevant to getting tracking other information during the heating season such as SPR, LIHEAP, or associations such as API, PMAA, or the National Propane Gas Assoc..

## Sign Up for Info

**Notes:**
If you are interested in obtaining information quickly, I would recommend that you go the main page and select our email updates item which allows you to  sign-up for the a number of different products. As soon as the info becomes available, it is automatically emailed to you.