# Presentation: 906911

## Slide 1

## U.S. National Academy of Sciences		 Charter (1863)

- “The academy shall,whenever called uponby any department of the government,investigate, examine... and report upon anysubject of science or art ,
- ... but the Academy shall receive no compensation whatsoever for any services to the government of the United States”.

## Slide 3

## Independent policy advice from the National Academies

- More than 200 reports a year, 85 percent requested by the US government
- Full text released to the press, and to the public on our Website, when report is delivered to government

## www.national-academies.org

## National Academies Review of the U.S. Climate      Change Science Program Strategic Plan

## COMMITTEE

**Thomas E. Graedel** (chair), Yale University
**Linda Capuano**, Honeywell Engines and Systems
**Elizabeth Chornesky**, University of California, Santa Cruz
**Mary Gade**, Sonnenschein, Nath, and Rosenthal
**Katharine L. Jacobs**, Arizona State Department of Water Resources
**Anthony C. Janetos**, Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment
**Charles Kolstad**, University of California, Santa Barbara
**Diana Liverman**, University of Arizona
**Jerry D. Mahlman**, National Center for Atmospheric Research
**Diane McKnight**, University of Colorado
**Michael J. Prather**, University of California, Irvine
**Eugene Rosa**, Washington State University
**William Schlesinger**, Duke University
**David Skole**, Michigan State University
**Andrew Solow**, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
**Robert Weller**, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
**Stephen Wittrig**, BP
**	****	****	**

**Review of U.S. CCSP Strategic Plan**

## STUDY TASKS

- Are the goals clear, appropriate, and well-balanced?
- Does the plan adequately describe the roles of relevant stakeholders?
- Does the written document communicate effectively?

**STUDY TASKS**

**Phase I:  ****The committee will review the draft strategic plan**
- The review will address the following questions for the draft plan as a whole:

**Review of U.S. CCSP Strategic Plan**

- The review will address the following questions for the plan's topical areas:

- Does the plan reflect current scientific and technical understanding?
- Are the specific objectives clear and appropriate?
- Are expected deliverables realistic given the available resources?

## STUDY TASKS (continued)

- Did the workshop promote the open exchange of ideas and suggestions for improvement?
- Was the process used to change the draft plan clearly communicated?
- What specific improvements should be reflected in future planning efforts for the program?

**STUDY TASKS (continued)**

**Phase II:  ****The committee will review the final plan by revisiting the same questions as in Phase I.   The committee also will examine the following questions about the process used to solicit and consider scientific and stakeholder input:**

**Review of U.S. CCSP Strategic Plan**

## TIMELINE

**Phase I:**
- November 11, 2002	 Draft strategic plan posted
- November 22, 2002	 First committee meeting in Washington, DC
- December 3-5, 2002  Public workshop held in Washington, DC
- December 6, 2002 Second committee meeting in Washington, DC
- January 8-10, 2003	Third committee meeting in Irvine, CA
- February 28, 2003	First Academies report delivered
**Phase II:**
- April 1, 2003	Publication of revised (final) strategic plan by government (approximate)
- September, 2003	Release of second Academies report

**Review of U.S. CCSP Strategic Plan**

## MOST  RECENT  NATIONAL  ACADEMIES REPORTS  ON  CLIMATE  SCIENCE

**MOST  RECENT  NATIONAL  ACADEMIES REPORTS  ON  CLIMATE  SCIENCE**

**Review of U.S. CCSP Strategic Plan**

- Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)
- Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling (2001)
- The Science of Regional and Global Change (2001)
- Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (2001)
- Climate Change Feedbacks: Characterizing and Reducing Uncertainty (in review)

## Slide 12

## Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)Ralph Cicerone, chair

**Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)**Ralph Cicerone, chair

-   “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes are also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21st century.”

## Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)

**Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)**

- Making progress in reducing the large uncertainties in projections of future climate will require addressing a number of fundamental scientific questions ...Issues that need to be addressed include:
-   The future usage of fossil fuels
-   The future emissions of methane
-   The fraction of the future fossil-fuel carbon that will remain in the atmosphere and provide radiative forcing versus exchange with the oceans or net exchange with the land biosphere
- (continued on next slide)

## Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)

**Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)**

-  The feedbacks in the climate system that determine both the magnitude of the change and the rate of energy uptake by the oceans
-   The details of the regional and local climate change consequent to an overall level of global climate change
-   The nature and causes of the natural variability of climate and its interactions with forced changes
-   The direct and indirect effects of the changing distributions of aerosols

## Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)

**Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)**

- In addition, the research enterprise dealing with environmental change and the interactions of human society with the environment must be enhanced.    This includes support of:
- An improved capability of integrating scientific knowledge, including its uncertainty, into effective decision support systems, and
-  An ability to conduct research at the regional or sectoral level that promotes analysis of the response of human and natural systems to multiple stresses.

## Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)

**Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)**

- An effective strategy for advancing the understanding of climate change also will require:
-  A global observing system in support of long term climate monitoring and prediction;
-  Concentration on large-scale modeling through increased, dedicated supercomputing and human resources; and
-  Efforts to ensure that climate research is supported and managed to assure innovation, effectiveness and efficiency.
* *

## Slide 18

## Slide 19

## Carbon Dioxide and Climate:A Scientific Assessment (1979)Jule G. Charney, chair

**Carbon Dioxide and Climate:****A Scientific Assessment (1979)**Jule G. Charney, chair

- “The known negative feedback mechanisms can reduce the warming, but they do not appear to be as strong as the positive moisture feedback.  We estimate the most probable global warming for a doubling of CO**2** to be near 3 degrees C, with a probable error of plus or minus 1.5 degrees.”