# Presentation: 851078

- National Air Quality Forecasting:
- Status and Plans

- Presentation to EPA’s National Air Quality Conference
- San Antonio, TX
- Dr. Jack Hayes
- February 3, 2003

## National Air Quality Forecasting:Vision and Strategy

*** ******Vision***** **
**	****National Air Quality Forecast System which provides the US with ozone, particulate matter and other pollutant forecasts with enough advance notice to take action to prevent or reduce adverse effects**

***Strategy***
**	****Work with EPA, State and Local Air Quality agencies and private sector to develop end-to-end air quality forecast capability for the Nation **

**Notes:**
Current
NWS forecasting does not include AQ
High societal costs of poor AQ
Capabilities ready for transition

H.R. 4 Energy Policy Act of 2002 (Senate Amendment)
	S. 517, SA 1383, Forecasts and Warnings-The Secretary of Commerce, through the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shall, in order of priority as listed in section (c) establish a program to provide operational air quality forecasts and warnings for specific regions of the United States

> 60,000 deaths/yr from high levels of particulate matter
~ $150 B/ yr health cost of air pollution

## Outline

***NOAA and NWS***
***NOAA and AIR QUALITY***
***NOAA + EPA***
***Path to Operational Air Quality Forecasts***
***Next steps:  Challenges and Opportunities***

## NOAAVision, Mission

***VISION***
**To move NOAA into the 21st Century scientifically and operationally, in the same interrelated manner as the environment that we observe and forecast, while recognizing the link between our global economy and our planet’s environment.**
***MISSION***
**To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet the Nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs.**

## Slide 5

**Notes:**
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

## National Weather ServiceOur Mission

- Provide weather, water and climate forecasts and warnings
*To America*
*To protect life and property*
*To enhance the national economy** *
- Provide a national information database for
*Government agencies*
*Private sector*
*Public*
*Global community*

## National Weather ServiceWhy We’re Here

- Basic Source of Weather Information for the Country
- High Impact Government Agency
- U.S. Severe Weather Prone– Protect Life and Property
- Significant Economic Benefits to the Nation

## National Weather ServiceTechnologies and Training are Improving Our Service

**Tornado Warnings**

## National Weather ServiceTechnologies and Training are Improving Our Service

**Flash Flood Warnings**

## National Centers for Environmental Prediction

- Ingests over 1.5 million observation reports daily
- Produces 52 gigabytes of information daily
- Transmits 81,000 products each day
- Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)
- Domestic Models (Aviation, Severe Weather)
- Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash)

**IBM SP at Bowie Computer Center in Bowie, MD**

## NOAA and Air Quality

**Congressional interest**
**	****	****H.R. 4 Energy Policy Act of 2002 (Senate Amendment)**
*S. 517, SA 1383, Forecasts and Warnings:*
*	**“**The Secretary of Commerce, through the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shall, in order of priority as listed in section (c) establish a program to provide operational air quality forecasts and warnings for specific regions of the United States...”*
**Constituent interest**
*Air Quality (AQ) managers, public health officials, private weather sector partners urge NOAA to provide AQ forecasts*
**Science is mature**
*Ozone forecast models demonstrated in lab -- others in development*
*Other nations (Canada, Australia) have AQ forecast capability*

## NOAA and Air Quality

- NOAA and EPA helped develop AQ expertise for forecasting:
*Ozone forecasting demonstrated in laboratory prototypes*
*Atmospheric modeling tools developed/demonstrated in routine assessment of air pollutants*
- NOAA/NWS develops  and runs the NWP models at NCEP that guide National Weather Service forecasts
- Linking AQ forecast models to NCEP’s NWP models will provide consistent, nationwide basis for AQ forecast guidance.

##     NOAA and EPA Partners for Air Quality

*** ******	***_***EPA ***_
***National Emissions Inventory***
***	***
***National AQ databases***
***	***
***State, Local AQ manager ***
***	******coordination***

_***NOAA***_
***Nation’s end-to-end weather forecasting***
***Weather and AQ R&D ***
***AQ Operational support,  infrastructure***

## National Air Quality Forecasting Planned Capabilities 

**Initial:  1-day forecasts of ozone (O****3****)**
***Develop and validate in Northeastern US within 2 years***
***Deploy Nationwide within 5 years***
**Intermediate (5-7 years):**
***Develop and deploy nationwide capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) concentration  ***
**Particulate size  **_**<**_**  2.5 microns**
**Longer range (within 10 years):**
***Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours***
***Include broader range of significant pollutants******	******	***

## National Air Quality Forecast Capability:Major Components

**Weather Model: NCEP’s Mesoscale NWP ****	*****NOAA***
**Air Quality Forecast Model: CMAQ ****	****	*****NOAA/EPA******	******	******	******	******	******	******	***
**National Emissions Inventory:            ****	****	*****EPA*****	**
**Supporting Comms/IT:****	****	****	****	*****NOAA/EPA***

## EPA’s Role

**Compile, maintain, and provide current National Emissions Inventory to NOAA**
***Consists of State/Local and federal inventories; including fixed point/area and mobile sources, biogenic sources***
**Compile and maintain National AQ Databases**
***Includes ozone observations***
***Current data (ozone and other precursors) delivered to NOAA***
**Compile databases for State/Local AQ Forecasts**
**Makes AQ Forecasts available to States/Locals and private sector**
***Produce AQI and links to public health information***
**Provide AQ forecasting support  for all products**
***Staffs required customer help desk***

## NOAA’s Role  

**Develop and integrate tools for weather and AQ forecasting**
***Eta/WRF***
***CMAQ***
***Verification and Archiving***
***Underlying IT for NOAA side of interface***
**System operations: AQ prediction models driven by NCEP weather prediction models**
**Provide gridded AQF forecasts to EPA twice daily**
**Provide gridded AQF forecasts on NWS servers**
***available for public and private sector users to “pull”***
**Verification **
**Archiving**
**Customer Outreach/Feedback**

## National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityInitial Operating Capability 

**1-Day ozone forecasts: Target deployment for NE US - -  FY 04**
***1-hr and 8-hr avg O******3****** levels: categories for EPA and in parts per billion (ppb )***
***Threshold:  Ground levels.   ***
**May expand to above-ground levels if sufficient ozone observations can be acquired and exploited**
***Forecasts produced during ozone season***

**Notes:**
Delivery schedule for IOC focuses on NE US

For national capability:
Objective targets cover westward expansion.  (HI, AK OCONUS)
Forecast extensions require skill demonstration

## Proposed AQF Northeast Domain

**December 2002**

## National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityInitial Operating Capability 

**1-Day ozone forecasts:  **
***Delivered 2X daily  ***
**Primary forecasts for following day: delivered by 1730 UTC**
***valid for 24 hours through 4 UTC, day 3***
**Update forecasts for current day: delivered by 1300 UTC **
***valid for 15 hours through 4 UTC, day 2***
**Threshold:  through 4 UTC.  Objective:  through 12UTC**

**Notes:**
Delivery schedule for IOC focuses on NE US

For national capability:
Objective targets cover westward expansion.  (HI, AK OCONUS)
Forecast extensions require skill demonstration

## Air Quality Forecast Operations

**Air Quality Forecast Operations**

- Day 0

- Day 1

- Day 2

- Day 3

- Issue Forecast – 00/1730 UTC

- Update Forecast 01/13 UTC

- 00 UTC

- Threshold Forecast Valid 01/04 UTC  to 02/04 UTC

- Model Run time

- Forecast Interval

- Forecast Objective

- Objective - Extend to 02/12 UTC

- 00 UTC

- 00 UTC

- 00 UTC

- 00 UTC

- Objective - Extend to 02/12 UTC

- Threshold Forecast Valid 01/13 UTC to 02/04 UTC

## National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityInitial Operating Capability 

**1-Day ozone forecasts: **
***Accuracy target (TBR):  ***
**Threshold: critical level “hit accuracy” predicted on 90% of days**
**Propose: Objective: critical level “hit accuracy” predicted on 93% of days**
**Persistence forecast “hit accuracies” are ~85%**
***Finalize target by FY03***

**Notes:**
Delivery schedule for IOC focuses on NE US

For national capability:
Objective targets cover westward expansion.  (HI, AK OCONUS)
Forecast extensions require skill demonstration

## National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityAccuracy Targets

## IOC:   NOAA’s IT Links...	 	

**AQ Data from S/L Agencies**

**EPA Data Management Center**

**Forecast Pollutant**
**Concentration Fields**

**O****3**** Movies/ Forecasts**

**Public**

**NOAA National Center for**
**Environmental Prediction**

**State/Local Air Agencies**

**Commercial**
**Weather**
**Providers**

**IOC:   NOAA’s IT Links...****	**** ****	**

**Media**

**City-specific**
**AQI forecasts**

- EPA
- Emissions Inventory

**Data “pull”   ****- - ->**
**Data “push” ****____****>**

**Weather **
**Obs**

**Notes:**
Here is a flow diagram of the overall AIRNow process.  Readings are sent in hourly to an FTP site, the Data Management Center processes the data, performs QA/QC, manipulates the data into the AQI and into a format for mapping – maps for the AIRNow website and formatted especially for the Commercial Weather Providers – who in turn provide the product to their clients – the local TV markets.

Air Quality Forecasts are also processed by the DMC for the AIRNow website and WSPs, including USAToday.

Commercial Weather Service Providers repackage the information to tailor products for their clients.  For some localities they apply statistical post-processing techniques to AIRNOW data (or in future, NWS model guidance)  to generate AQ forecast products.

## National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityBeyond IOC:  Goals/Targets to FY 12

| Proposed Products | 2-year Target | 5-year Target | 10-year Target |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Ozone forecasts | IOC 1-day forecasts:  Northeast US | 1-day forecasts for the Nation | Extend to day 2 and beyond |
| PM | R&D | 1-day forecasts: 
Northeast US | 1-day forecasts for the Nation |
| Extend to other pollutants |  | R&D | 1-day forecasts |

**Near-Term: Initial Operating Capability  (IOC)**
**Mid-Term (2-5 yrs):  Initiate nationwide forecasting**
**Longer-term (5-10 yrs):  Enhanced capabilities**

**Notes:**
Finalize forecast products
-customer input
-FY03 DTE; evaluation of 2002 pilot study and earlier

GPRA Performance measures follow pre-operational testing
Prior experience (MAQSIP run over Texas): ozone excedance predicted correctly for major cities average of 8 days out of 10

## Challenges

**Transition of R&D to Operations**
**Extend ozone forecasts to PM **
**Extend AQ forecasts further out in time**
**Evaluate need for / best use of additional air chemistry observations for AQ forecasts**

## Needs

**Refine customer requirements  **
***Continue state/local input; additional customer/stakeholder input ***
***2004 test products ***
***Follow-on actions***
**Customer/stakeholder input**
***EPA National AQ Conference, Feb 2003  ***
***Annual constituent meetings***
***Other***
**Customer outreach and evaluation**

**Notes:**

List-servers for feedback on experimental products  (Stokols)

Funds budgeted for annual customeer/stakeholder meetings
Stokols:  to be held annually  

## Summary

**Strong NOAA and EPA partnership to provide constituents with information generation, dissemination and interpretation services **
***EPA providing air quality information to State and Local users to meet needs of public for health protection and economic growth***
***NOAA providing science structure, forecast models and dissemination experience  ***
**Pre-operational testing scheduled for summer, 2003 over Northeastern US**
**Planning for Initial Operational Capability:  ozone forecasts in 2 yrs**
***Experimental products: Summer 04***
**Planned nationwide capability: ozone forecasts within 3-5 yrs**
*** ******Particulate forecasts within 5-10 yrs***