# Presentation: 376451

## Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)
NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services
November 15,  2005

**Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)**
**NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services**
**November 15,  2005**

**NWS & IAEM*****Partnership in the Digital Era***

## Overview

**The Nation’s Risks:  Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water**
*2005 (YTD) in Review*
**The Future:  Action for America**
*Strategic Initiatives*

**NWS & IAEM *****Partnership in the Digital Era***

## Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy
76 billion observations
1.5 million forecasts
50,000 warnings

**76 billion observations**
**1.5 million forecasts**
**50,000 warnings**

**A Typical Year Brings: **
*6 Hurricanes*
*1,000 Tornadoes*
*5,000 Floods*
*10,000 Violent Thunderstorms*
*Drought Conditions*
*500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; **$14 Billion in Losses*

**The Nation’s Risks:*****Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water***

## The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water

**Data Assimilation ****and Modeling **

**Dissemination**

**Observations**

**Products & ****Services**

**Action**

**Information ****Technology**

**Research to ****Operations**

**Research**

**The Nation’s Risks:*****Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water***

## The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water

***2005 in Review (YTD) ***

**The Nation’s Risks:*****Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water***

***Atlantic Tropical Cyclones since 1886***

**The Nation’s Risks:*****Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water***

## The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water

**Advisory 23 Issued**

**BULLETIN**
**HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23**
**NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL**
**10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 **
**...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC**** HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN STRONGER...HEADED**
**FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST....**
**REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM ****SUSTAINED WINDS ****HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH****...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.**
**HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...**
**AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES..**
**COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF ****18 TO 22 FEET**** ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...**
**LOCALLY ****AS HIGH AS 28 FEET**** ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...**
**CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.**

**000**
**WWUS74 KLIX 281550**
**NPWLIX**
**URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE**
**NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA**
**1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005**
**...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED....**
**HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITYOF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. **
**MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE**** ****UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS****...****PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.**
**THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO**** ****COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED****.**** ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE  BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.**
** **
**HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE.  ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.**

**AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION.**** ****PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.**
**POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS****...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWNAND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED.  WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.**
**THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN.**** ****LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.**
**AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.**
**ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!**

**Hurricane Katrina**

**The Nation’s Risks:*****Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water***

***2005 in Review (YTD) ***

## Hurricane KatrinaCostly Human and Societal Effects

**Photos by AP**

**Hurricane Katrina****Costly Human and Societal Effects**

**The Nation’s Risks:*****Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water***

***2005 in Review (YTD) ***

## The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water

**The Nation’s Risks:*****Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water***

***2005 in Review (YTD) ***

## Indiana & Kentucky Tornadoes        (Nov. 6)

**AP Photos**

**The Nation’s Risks:*****Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water***

***2005 in Review (YTD) ***

## The Nation’s Risks:Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water

**Cheshire County Floods Oct. 17**

**The Nation’s Risks:*****Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water***

***2005 in Review (YTD) ***

## The Future  Action for America

**The Future  *****Action for America***

## The Future  Action for America

***Community ***
***Preparedness & Safety***

**The Future  *****Action for America***

## Van Wert, Ohio is StormReady 
Preparedness in Place
Threat Detected
Warning Issued
Warning Understood
Action Taken
LIVES SAVED

*Preparedness in Place*
*Threat Detected*
*Warning Issued*
*Warning Understood*
*Action Taken*
***LIVES SAVED***

*Photo credit: Todd Campbell*

**The Future  *****Action for America***

***Successful Community      Preparedness***

##  Know and Anticipate Customer Needs
 Research to Operations
 Balanced Skill Mix
 Infuse Proven   Science and   Technology
 Grow National Digital   Forecast Database (NDFD)
Better Radar

*** ******Research to Operations***
*** ******Balanced Skill Mix***
*** ******Infuse Proven ******  Science and ******  Technology***
*** ******Grow National Digital ******  Forecast Database (NDFD)***
***Better Radar***

**Gridded Forecast Database**

- TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE

**IFPS**

**The Future  *****Action for America***

***Integrating and Improving***
*** ******Skills & Tools***

## The Future  Action for America

**Atmosphere**

**Snow Pack**

**Fresh****Water**

**Terrestrial****Weather**

**Estuaries**

**Ocean**

**Air Quality**

**Soil Moisture**

**Space****Weather**

***Total Environmental Awareness***

**The Future  *****Action for America***

## More weather data 
Higher resolution forecasts
Visual displays of probability
User-defined  products create business opportunities

*Higher resolution forecasts*
*Visual displays of probability*
*User-defined  products create business opportunities*

**Different Products for Different Customers**

**The Future  *****Action for America***

***Digital Services (NDFD)***

## The Future  Action for America

**Polygon ****Eliminates**
**False Alarm Area**

***Polygon Warnings & Demographic Data***

**The Future  *****Action for America***

## The Future  Action for America

**Improved Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Forecasts**
**Improved Tornado and ****Flash Flood Forecasts**
**Improved Aviation, Fire, Marine, and Space Weather Forecasts**
**Improved Flood, River, and Ocean Predictions**
**Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Etc.**

**Advances**** **
***Observations***
*** ******Data Assimilation***
*** ******Models***
*** ******Forecasting Techniques***
*** ******Information Technology***
***Dissemination Methods***** ***** ***

**The Future  *****Action for America***

## Develop an organization-wide concept of operations
Consolidate data-level IT management 
Provide Aviation Products and Services

**Consolidate data-level IT management **
**Provide Aviation Products and Services**

***Three Strategic Initiatives***

**The Future  *****Action for America***

## Strategic Initiatives 
Develop an Organization-Wide                Concept of Operations

***Strategic Initiatives ***
***Develop an Organization-Wide                Concept of Operations***

**The Future  *****Action for America***

## The Future  Action for America

**NOAA NWS**

**END USERS**

**PARTNERS**

***Integrative Communication Model***

**The Future  *****Action for America***

## NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era

- Academic/
- Research

- Broadcasters

- Private Sector

- NOAA
- NWS

**Protect Life and Property**
**& Enhance U.S.A Economy**

**NWS & IAEM***** ******Partnership in the Digital Era***

- Emergency
- Managers

## Slide 24