# Presentation: 070365

## 2008 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

- May 2008
- Chris Kunstadter
- Gwynne Shotwell
**COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group**
***chris.kunstadter@xlgroup.com***
***gwynne@spacex.com***

***Cover art by John Sloan/FAA***

*2008 Summary*
*Methodology / Realization Factor*
*Trends – Mass / Transponders*
*Operator Assessment*
*Macro Economics*
*Summary*

## 2008 GSO Summary

**2008 GSO Summary**

***2008-2017 commercial GSO satellite and launch demand forecast increased by 1 from 2007***

***Average 21.8***

***Average 16.2***

## Report History

**Commercial GSO launch demand forecast**
- Updated annually since 1993
- Methodology has been consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements to reflect industry evolution
- Update this year - smallest mass class was < 2,200 kg, now < 2,500 kg
- 10-year forecast horizon (2008-2017)
**2008 report updates**
- Realization factor
- Growth in satellite mass and transponders per satellite
- Industry developments that may affect demand
- Respondents’ views on factors affecting demand

## Working Group Participation

**Gwynne Shotwell****	****SpaceX**
***	******(2008 GSO Forecast Chair)***
**Beth King****	****Lockheed Martin**
***	******(2007 GSO Forecast Chair)***
**Dr. Alexander Liang****	****Aerospace Corp.**
***	******(T&IWG Chair)***
**John Sloan****	****FAA AST**
**Darren Chambo****	****Lockheed Martin**
**Lisa Hague****	****Aerospace Corp.**
**Doug Howe / Josef Lore****	****Boeing**
**Veronica Johnson / Greg Caudel****	****ULA**
**David Keslow****	****Orbital**
**Chris Kunstadter****	****XL Insurance**
**Joanna Malvino / Bill Hayes /**
**Kathy Shockey / Tom Monroe****	****SS/L**
**Jennifer Miceli****	****Tecolote Research / USAF / SMC / MV**
**Chris O’Connell****	****Sea Launch**
**Chris Sanders****	****P&W Rocketdyne**

## Forecast Data Request

**Ten-year GSO satellite launch demand requested from 92 organizations worldwide **
**29 inputs received (versus 22 last year)**
- Comprehensive
- 6 US and 3 international satellite manufacturers / launch service providers (same as 2007)
- Individual
- 20 demand inputs from satellite operators (increased from 13 last year)
**Questionnaire on factors affecting market demand**
- 18 satellite operators responded to questions on how various factors affected their plans to procure new satellites
- Up from 12 respondents in 2007

## Forecast Methodology

**Near-term (2008-2010) mission model**
- “Bottoms-up” by identified satellite
- Timing and likelihood of launches assessed
**Long-term (2011-2017) demand forecast**
- Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories
- International input used as a cross check
**Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites**
- Defined as those open for internationally competitive launch service procurement
- 2008 addressable launches includes the first Long March launch (Palapa D) defined as addressable since 1997

## Satellite and Launch Demand Forecast

***Large increase in near-term demand from the 2007 forecast***

## Historical Forecast Comparison

**Historical Forecast Comparison**

***2008 near-term forecast higher than 4 of 5 most recent forecasts***

## The GSO forecast projects demand for satellite launches
Several factors can affect the execution of a scheduled launch in a given year
Satellite issues
Launch vehicle issues
Manifesting & scheduling issues
Funding
Weather
Regulatory delays 
A “realization factor” is based on an analysis of historical forecast vs. actual satellite launches for the first and second year of the forecast
No change in this methodology from last year
2007 actuals fell within realization range

**Several factors can affect the execution of a scheduled launch in a given year**
- Satellite issues
- Launch vehicle issues
- Manifesting & scheduling issues
- Funding
- Weather
- Regulatory delays
**A “realization factor” is based on an analysis of historical forecast vs. actual satellite launches for the first and second year of the forecast**
- No change in this methodology from last year
- 2007 actuals fell within realization range

**Satellite Launch “Realization” vs. Demand**

## 2007 Actual Satellites vs. Forecasted Demand

**Reason for delay****	****Planned****	****Actual**
- 	23	18
- Launch vehicle	(3)
-  Thor 5, AMC 14 and Thuraya 3
- Satellite / launch vehicle	(1)
-  ICO-GEO 1
- Satellite	(1)
-  Star One C2

***78% actual vs. forecast***
***Realization factor predicted 15-19 launches***

## Forecast With Realization

***Since implementation of the realization factor, actual number of satellites launched has fallen within adjusted band***

## Forecast By Satellite Mass Class

***Forecast indicates stability in satellites to be launched in two highest mass classes***
***Smallest satellite class increases in the near term, then decreases and stabilizes***

## Total and Average Satellite Mass Launched

***Average satellite mass stabilizing at ~4,200 kg after peak of 4,500 kg in 2005 ***

## Spacecraft Trends: Transponders

***Slight drop in average transponders launched per year***
***An increase is expected in 2009***

## Satellite Operator Assessment

|  | Significant Negative Impact | Some Negative Impact | No Effect | Some Positive Impact | Significant Positive Impact | Compared to 2007 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Regional or global economic conditions | 0% | 33% | 39% | 28% | 0% |  |
| Demand for satellite services | 6% | 11% | 28% | 33% | 22% |  |
| Ability to compete with terrestrial services | 6% | 22% | 61% | 11% | 0% |  |
| Availability of financing | 11% | 17% | 44% | 22% | 6% |  |
| Availability of affordable insurance | 0% | 17% | 56% | 28% | 0% |  |
| Consolidation of service providers | 0% | 6% | 94% | 0% | 0% |  |
| Increasing satellite life times | 0% | 17% | 72% | 11% | 0% |  |
| Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements | 0% | 6% | 44% | 39% | 11% |  |
| Reliability of satellite systems | 0% | 17% | 44% | 39% | 0% |  |
| Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements | 0% | 11% | 50% | 33% | 6% |  |
| Reliability of launch systems | 0% | 22% | 39% | 39% | 0% |  |
| Ability to obtain required export licenses | 6% | 17% | 56% | 22% | 0% |  |
| Ability to obtain required operating licenses | 6% | 22% | 61% | 11% | 0% |  |

## Satellite Operator Assessment

**Only two areas are more negative than in last year’s survey**
- Ability to compete with terrestrial services
- Ability to get required licensing
**Remaining are more positive than last year**
- Economic conditions had less negative impact ***(watch item for next year)***
- Demand for services
- Availability of financing
- Availability of affordable insurance ***(watch item for next year)***
- Availability / reliability of launch vehicles
- Consolidation of service providers
- Increasing satellite lifetimes
- Availability of satellite systems to meet requirements
- Reliability of satellite systems
- Availability & reliability of launchers
- Ability to obtain required export licensing

## Summary of Findings

**2008 GSO demand forecast**
- 2008-2017 average annual _satellite_ demand of 21.8 per year (increase by 1 from 2007 forecast)
- 2008-2017 average annual _launch_ demand of 16.2 per year (increase by 1 from 2007 forecast)
- 2008 satellite demand of 27, with a realization between 17 and 22
**More positive outlook from respondents than in 2007**
- Ability to compete with terrestrial services and licensing are the only areas more negative than last year
**Growth in demand in coming years could be helped by**
- DARS & MSS growth
- Hosted payloads
- New commercial launch competitors
**Economic conditions and recent launch failures may impact results in 2008-2009**