# Presentation: 549420

## The RISA Program, What Is It and How Does it Relate to Climate Services?

**Presented By Harvey Hill, Ph.D.**
**Program Coordinator, Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA), Office of Global Programs/OAR/NOAA**
**Sub-Regional Climate Services Meeting**
**July 20 - 21, 2004**
**Columbia, Missouri**

## Relevant Research and Products

** ****Information is appropriate to the knowledge and concerns of the resource management community if it is useful to them.**
**This requires research and transition strategies that can:**
**Quantify the *****benefits and costs***** of climate information research and services, and **
**Combine scientific outputs and *****users’ needs***** together to ensure climate forecasts are *****more socially useful*****,**
**Be sensitive to the need to deliver timely and *****relevant***** tools.**
**Enhance activities to integrate science with the *****needs of decision makers*****.***** ***
***Sources: Various USGCRP and NRC reports, 1997-2001 (Slide based on H. Hartmann input)***

## Climate Services:

**Climate Services:**
**“****The timely production and delivery **
**	****of useful climate data, information, and ****	****knowledge to decision makers.”   **
**	**** ****	****NRC, 2001, *****A Climate Services ******	******	******	******	******	******Vision***
**	**

- Slide source, K. Redmond

##  Diagnostics and Prototyping	

**(WWA, CLIMAS, CAP, PNW/CIG)**
** ****Diagnostics and Prototyping****	**
** ****(CDC, ETL, WRCC, RFCs)**
**	**
**	****     ****Operational Centers****	****         CENTERS**
**	****     ****(WRCC, NCDC, CPC,**
**	****      ****SC, WFOs, RFCs)****	****	**

***new or enhanced regional products ******	******   information delivery technology ******	***
***	******	******  ******sustained & systematic communication and feedback***

- RISA SYNERGIES*Pathways for integrated climate research and **information delivery*

***INTEGRATED RESEARCH***
***	******&***
*** ******	****** ******DEVELOPMENT******	******	******&***
***	******	******IMPLEMENTATION***
***	******	******	******&***
***	******	******	******SERVICES***

## Western drought worse than Dust Bowl USGS: Water shortage could be severest in 500 years

**Scientists using tree-ring reconstructions of Colorado River estimate that the lowest five-year average of water flow was 8.84 million acre-feet in 1590-1594. From 1999 through last year, water flow has been 7.11 million acre-feet.**
***“******These comparisons suggest that the current drought may be comparable to or more severe than the largest- known drought in 500 years,” the report said.****** ***
- 				http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5239212/

## The spot where the Dirty Devil River flows into Lake Powell in Utah shows how water levels there have dropped. The top photo is from June 2002. The lower photo was taken in December 2003.

**John C. Dohrenwend / USGS file**

**The spot where the Dirty Devil River flows into Lake Powell in Utah shows how water levels there have dropped. The top photo is from June 2002. The lower photo was taken in December 2003.**

## Natural gas crisis looms, study warnsWestern Canadian reserves not enough to ease North American supply crunch

- A U.S.-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates study forecasts a gas crisis in which prices will hover between US$6 and US$7 per BTu (‘000s) unit at least until 2008 or 2009.
- The report concluded that prices ***could go even higher if there is unusual weather patterns***. Current gas prices are between US$4 and US$5 per Btu (‘000s).
- 				- Peter Morton, Washington Bureau Chief  					Financial Post - July 19, 2004

## Solow et al. estimated the value of El Niño-based 	seasonal forecasts to be approximately $2 billion dollars (1996 dollars) for the U.S. agriculture sector over a 10-year period discounted at 6%. 

## Presentation Themes

- The goals and structure of the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment Program (RISA)
- Examples of research and results
- Lessons learned and knowledge gaps
- Future, the way forward

## The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program 

**Increasing the portfolio of options available to decision makers**
**Understanding/articulating policy needs at a regional problem focus**
**Launching “next generation” integrated knowledge**
**Enhancing structured feedback -- scientific research agendas, and institutional capacity**
**Increasing the role of science in natural resource management **
**Supporting the *****Research Foundation***** for Climate Information Systems**
- *Regional refers to geographic regions which have some homogeneous characteristics either physical or institutional which allow the RISA teams to tractable focus their interaction with decision-makers.

## Slide 11

## Slide 12

## Slide 13

## Slide 14

## Slide 15

## Examples of Research Integrating Decision Makers Needs

**CALFED**
** ****	**
**Ranching**
**	**
**Columbia River Basin **
**Water Quality**
**State Major Program**

## CALFED: Climate Change to Seasonal Variability

**The CALFED San Francisco Bay-Delta Program mission is to improve Bay-Delta water management while restoring its ecological health.**
**30 year mission, potentially involving billions of dollars and 23 Federal and state agencies.**
**CAP is providing forecasts of snowpack cover to CALFED planners and the California Dept. of Water to prepare for climate change.**

## Slide 18

## 2. Arizona Ranching: Coarse to Finer Resolution

**Southern Arizonan ranchers**
** ****Use Mexican climate (summer monsoon rains) to forecast summer grass growth and calf production. **
**Large Arizonan ranchers **
**Use national climate forecasts to respond to market conditions and grain prices.**
- http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/reportseries/index.html, no. CL3-99)

## 2. Arizona - Continued Survey 		Results 

**Ranchers are seeking climate forecasts with greater spatial resolution.**
**The research is being incorporated into climate forecast evaluations (Hartmann, Pagano, and Sorooshian, (CLIMAS)).**

## 2. Arizona Research and Pilot 			Products

- Forecast evaluations

**Notes:**
One of the early results of CLIMAS efforts was undertaken in response to consistently voiced stakeholder requests for information about the track record of climate and hydrologic forecasts.  The result is a series of information products designed to help stakeholders assess the skill and accuracy of forecasts across a range of spatial and temporal scales.  These evaluations are being made available to stakeholders through HyDIS, a web-based server developed at UA under the NSF-funded SAHRA* project.

As the illustration above indicates, skill in forecasting is not always available during the seasons when high skill is most needed.  Thus, the evaluations highlight areas where stakeholder needs can be cited in support of basic science research. However, CLIMAS forecast evaluation research has demonstrated that there *IS* appreciable skill for the Southwest for particular target forecast seasons (especially winter), and particular states of the ocean-atmosphere system (e.g., ENSO extremes).  This knowledge will allow stakeholders to make informed decisions about forecast reliability, and will allow them to make changes in their decision-making processes in order to take advantage of high forecast skill during particular seasons and years.

The CLIMAS online forecast evaluation tool (FET), now under development, allows stakeholders to evaluate forecast skill, using a variety of measures, for user-specified seasons and lead times.  In addition, the FET allows users to evaluate instrumental climate history for US climate divisions, for a variety of scenarios (EN years, LN years, the last 10 years, etc.).  This capability allows users to understand and evaluate climate variability, to generate their own climate analogs, and to see how skillful an analog forecasts might be in comparison to official and experimental forecasts.

*SAHRA, the NSF Science and Technology Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas 

## 3. Pacific Northwest - The Value of Information 

**Portland Water Management**
**Water management and reservoir planning**
**Seasonal to long term planning**
**Society of American Civil Engineers**
**Planning for climate change and adaptation**
**Columbia River Basin**
**Using climate information to optimize energy production under multiple stresses**
**Hamlet, Huppert, Lettenmaier**

## ENSO
PDO
Other.....

- Snowpack

- Streamflow forecast

- Water resources
- risks&benefits

- ENSO
- PDO
- Other.....

## The Value of Streamflow 				Forecasts

**A tool was developed for making ensemble (multiple) forecasts of Columbia River streamflow up to 12 months in advance, using predictions of ENSO and PDO phases. **
***The Forecasts could result in an average annual benefit of over ******$150 million/year for hydropower alone, while preserving or enhancing fisheries protection and flood prevention capabilities ***
- - **Hamlet, A.F., Huppert, D., and Lettenmaier, D.P., 2002: Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower",*** ASCE J. of Water Res. Planning and Mgmt,* **128**, 91-101

## 4. Western Water Assessment - EPA Regulations in a Variable Environment

**Linking climate variability, demographic change, and water quality**

##   Reservoir Management Decision Calendar

-   Reservoir Management Decision Calendar
**Water Year Planning                                                                                                                    Next Water Year Planning**** **

**Jan**

**Feb**

**Mar**

**Apr**

**May**

**Jun**

**July**

**Aug**

**Sep**

** ****Oct**

**Oct**

**Nov**

**Dec**

**Aug**

**Sep**

***Andrea J. Ray, Robert S. Webb, John D. Wiener, 2001***
*** ***Photos: US Bureau of Reclamation, NOAA-CIRES Western Water Assessment

**Notes:**
This is a reservoir management decision calendar for Upper Colorado reservoir managers
Management of water represents a formidable challenge.  Managers must retain as much water as possible in reservoirs to meet the traditional needs of irrigation, hydropower generation, and domestic consumption as well as emerging needs such as an adequate water supply for recreational uses, water quality standards, regulations for maintenance of aquatic ecosystems, and the special needs for the protection of threatened or endangered species.  Reservoir space must also be maintained to protect downstream homes, farms, and businesses from flooding.  

Water year instead of calendar year
Different types of forecasts during year with different scales
When information is important and where science can have most impact
Research issues:  hydrologic flows and endangered species; southwest monsoon prediction; river-basin hydro-meteorology

## 5. Southeast Consortium - A research operations collaboration

**State Major Program**
**Collaborative effort between the FC and the State Cooperative Extension Service**
**A confirmation that the state of Florida and its producers see the value of climate information**

## Lessons Learned and Knowledge Gaps: Larger Picture

**Climate Variability**
**PDO**
**Improvements in regional forecasting**
**Water Management**
**Improved stream flow forecasting**
**Greater understanding of water management processes and the role of climate**

## Lessons Learned and Knowledge Gaps (cont.)

**Need to develop policy decision supports to aid in conflict resolution related to competition for water**
**Developing effective working relationships with decision making community takes patience and time to develop credibility**
**Program realizes RISA teams need a core office to integrate research efforts and outreach**

## Lessons Learned: Finer Detail Factors In Water Resources Vulnerability

**Water rights system**
**Sources (reliability)**
**Infrastructure (robustness, coupling, etc.)**
**Water markets**
**Demand (volume, timing)**
**Use (flexible; consumptive/non-consumptive)**
**Environmental policy and protection**
**Inter-regional effects and “new” users**

**Notes:**
Vulnerability:

Stress on water system when coping strategies fail
Sensitivity:  physical system
Vulnerability:  brings in the social responses

Examples in two areas:  one aspect of river health and one aspect of agriculture

In theory, vulnerability of water resource system to disruption by climate variations increases as demand rises to meet supply.  This is one reason why western water systems stress large reservoir storage.  But net vulnerability in the South Platte basin is difficult to assess because of the great changes on-going in water use.  Urban growth, fueled by a robust post-industrial economy, is the main development trend in the basin.  The Front Range corridor is among the top five fastest growing metropolitan areas in the U.S. but still encompases significant agriculture (the nation’s third-largest irrigation system.

Need additional hypotheses about resiliency, absorptive capacity, and risk.
Absorptive capacity:  system ability to absorb climate stresses without failure
Resiliency:  system ability to recover from failure
Risk tolerance:  managers’ willingness to accept failure

## Future Plans

- Refining and enhancing capacity of existing RISA teams
- Expansion into new areas of research
- Build new linkages intra-regionally
- Cross-linkage of RISA activities
- Trans-regional issues
- Trans-boundary issues
- Development of new RISA teams
- Goal to fund new RISA teams in FY04 and FY03
- Climate Services

**Thank You!**

## What Does This Mean In Applied Terms?

- Prototypes - Learning what is required
- Water and climate information system in West
- Agriculture and climate information system in Southeast
- An interactive process between the research and operations community - that is scientifically and decision-maker legitimate
- Expanding the RISA system to better address the research needs of the US taxpayer

## Slide 34

## “Other than a relatively small program [RISA] at NOAA, there is currently no structure or process  within USGCRP to identify potential users, understand their needs, and connect them to the research agenda....RISA has been called a step in the right direction by some while others view it as a model that could guide larger efforts within USGCRP.”
Committee on Science U.S. House of Representatives, “New Directions for Climate Research and Technology Initiatives, April 17, 2002

- Committee on Science U.S. House of Representatives, “New Directions for Climate Research and Technology Initiatives, April 17, 2002

## Slides from this Point on 

- Are Extra

## Water Supply Sources:  Denver Metro Area

- Source: Hydrosphere Consultants

**Notes:**
Setting up the potential dynamics of future vulnerability between agriculture, municipal, and in stream water use.
Factors shaping future vulnerability
How does climate fit into this picture?

Water systems in South Platte are in various stages of development – some of excess supplies and some closer to build out, ie a balance of supply and demand (estimated to be 40-50 years in the future).  Over 2.5 million municipal water consumers in the South Platte used approximately 638,000 acre feet of water in 1996.  At build-out it is estimated that the basin will have 4.3 million residents and require 1,124,000 acre feet of water.  One projection indicates a gap between supply and demand at build-out.  

Urban water planners are very risk-averse, and their projections of supply include significant buffers.  Because of the complexity, this buffer capacity is achieved both through raw excess supply and through management that is extremely sensitive to climate information, so large absorptive capacity does not necessarily reduce sensitivity to climate information. 
Most new supply comes from trans-basin diversion, water re-use, and ground-water management (including recharge), suggesting that agricultural purchases will decline in importance.  The urban systems then begin to lose the buffer provided by cheap agricultural water, and management efficiency becomes more important.  At this point the climate information demands should increase dramatically, as both the agricultural and urban systems become more tightly managed.   It should be noted that the evolution of policy over time adds another trend to water system vulnerability and must be considered along with supply and water transfers.  Water rights and compact system would seem initially to offer stability and predictability to water distribution, assuring supply in tight times to senior rights holders, thus reducing their vulnerability.  Increased species protection would appear to reduce the supply efficiency of western water systems, perhaps increasing the difficulty of meeting supply objectives in tight times.
Note:  These are average figures.  But throughout basin, different communities will have different primary reliance on a particular source.

## Relationships among current products, potentially predictable and needed climate information 

***What is potentially predictable***

***Spectrum of User Needs***

***Current Forecast Products***

- Relationships among current products, potentially predictable and needed climate information

## NOAA Research: Priorities

- 	***Climate-sensitive sectors***: status,trends, conditions, *interactions, robustness,* projections
- 	Water availability.. 	Energy
- 	Agriculture		Fisheries
- 	Public Health	Fires
- 	Urban areas		Disasters
-        ***Regional research and decision support tools***
- CCRI
- COSP
- NWS
- NAS
*Programmatic mechanisms to identify, support, and evaluate decision-oriented integrated research*

## THE PROCESS OF PLANNING For THE FUTURE 

- NOAA (Climate Services, OAR, SAB, Social Science Advisory Panel, and others)
- Research Community (NRC, Global Change Panel, among others)
- Public/Private Dialogue
- Research Projects (Synthesizing Findings)
- Administration/Congress (CCRI, Natural Resource Issues )

***Consultation:***

## Describing the Evolution of Applied Climate Prediction as An Aviation Analogy 

## Walker to Bjerknes

**Walker to Bjerknes**
- Canonical evidence
- Bjerknes explained the  physical process

## TOGA to OGP

-  Begin installing observing systems
- Formation of HD, Health, CIP, RAP , RISA,
- CLIVAR,CDEP, GAPP, Aerosols, Carbon, Data, Observations, PACS, Atmospheric Chemistry

## Research to Operations

**Research to Operations**

## Getting the Infrastructure in Place

-  Henry Ford, Charles Lindbergh and others lobbied for significant public investment in infrastructure to ensure the aviation industry could function safely and effectively
-  Who is the Henry Ford for Climate?

## Variations on the Theme ???

** ****Systems research- Should RISA be Regional  Integrated Sciences, Systems and Assessments (RISSA)?**
**Private sector, New innovations**
**Who knows**