# Presentation: 744031

## Climate Information and  Agricultural Risk Management

- A Systemic Approach to Understanding Farmers’ Decision-Making

**T. A. Crane***, C. Roncoli*, N. E. Breuer+, J. O. Paz*,
- K. T. Ingram#, K. Broad+, G. Hoogenboom*
- * University of Georgia, + University of Miami, # University of Florida

## Outline

- Research methods and setting
- Interactions with weather and climate information systems
- Potential adaptive strategies
- Challenges to forecast use
- Farmers’ suggestions for usability

## Methods and Research Setting

- Sample: 38 farmers
- Sites: 21 counties in South Georgia
- Methods: Semi-structured interviews
- Weather and climate information systems
- Climate variability and risk mgmt. strategies
- Potential adaptations

## Methods and Research Setting

- Sample: 38 farmers
- Sites: 21 counties in South Georgia
- Methods: Semi-structured interviews
- Mixed production systems
- Avg. 2 per operation

| Production System | Freq. |
| --- | --- |
| Row crop | 31 |
| Produce (conv. & org.) | 10 |
| Cattle | 8 |
| Pine plantation | 7 |
| Hay | 4 |
| Pecans | 3 |
| Sows | 2 |
| Peach | 2 |
| Turf grass | 1 |
| Goats | 1 |
| Poultry | 1 |

## Weather & Climate Info Sources

- _Weather_ & Climate Info Sources

- Daily use, often accessed multiple times
- Spraying
- Planting
- Irrigation
- Confidence low beyond 3-5 days
- Wives & children are often internet users; information gateways

| Source | Freq. |
| --- | --- |
| Weather Channel (TV) | 18 |
| Local TV | 16 |
| Data Trans. Network | 9 |
| Online (indeterminate) | 9 |
| Weather.com  | 6 |
| Farm Magazines | 4 |
| Cell phone | 4 |
| GAEMN | 4 |
| Local Radio | 3 |
| Local Paper | 2 |
| Weatherbug.com | 2 |
| Accuweather.com | 1 |
| NOAA (online) | 1 |
| NWS (online) | 1 |
| Farmer's Almanac | 1 |

## Weather & Climate Info Sources

- Weather & _Climate_ Info Sources

- Passive exposure to climate forecasts
- 90-day forecasts not used in agric. decisions
- “Conversation piece”
- “Peace of mind”
- Collective credibility

| Source | Freq. |
| --- | --- |
| Weather Channel (TV) | 18 |
| Local TV | 16 |
| Data Trans. Network | 9 |
| Online (indeterminate) | 9 |
| Weather.com  | 6 |
| Farm Magazines | 4 |
| Cell phone | 4 |
| GAEMN | 4 |
| Local Radio | 3 |
| Local Paper | 2 |
| Weatherbug.com | 2 |
| Accuweather.com | 1 |
| NOAA (online) | 1 |
| NWS (online) | 1 |
| Farmer's Almanac | 1 |

## Adaptive Management Options

- Cropping strategy
- Corn or cotton ?
- Dry land corn ?
- Soil : crop : forecast ?
- Forward contracts ?
- Planting schedule
- Dry year pine planting ?
- Late frost risk ?

| Potential Use | Freq. |
| --- | --- |
| Crop selection | 23 |
| Planting timing | 16 |
| Input management | 14 |
| Land management | 13 |
| Variety selection | 11 |
| Marketing | 8 |
| Harvesting dates | 4 |
| Insurance | 3 |
| Herd management | 2 |
| Hog lagoon mgmt. | 1 |

## Adaptive Management Options

| Potential Use | Freq. |
| --- | --- |
| Crop selection | 23 |
| Planting timing | 16 |
| Input management | 14 |
| Land management | 13 |
| Variety selection | 11 |
| Marketing | 8 |
| Harvesting dates | 4 |
| Insurance | 3 |
| Herd management | 2 |
| Hog lagoon mgmt. | 1 |

***Forecast Use: Irwin County***
- Spring 2006 forecast for summer drought  widespread shift from long- to short-cycle peanut variety

## Non-Climate Variables as Management Drivers

- Agronomic requirements
- Commodity prices
- Insurance constraints
- Input prices
- Credit options
- Policy environment
- Price supports
- Trade policies
- Immigration laws

*Relative uncertainty of forecasts compared to non-climate variables = competition as mgmt. driver*

## Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts

- Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts

- Discrepancy in scales of forecasts & decisions
- Temporal
- Spatial
- Inexperience with climate forecasts
- Unawareness of potential
- Skepticism of accuracy
- Discrepancy in understandings of key concepts
- Probability
- Accuracy

## Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts

- Challenges to Farmers’ Use of Forecasts

- Difficulty in processing additional information
- Time
- Mental energy
-  Inflexibility of highly-capitalized operations
- Indebtedness
- Infrastructural investments
- Large acreage
- Potential for actors to leverage info over farmers
- Lenders
- Insurers
- Brokers

## Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS

- Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS

- Create recognizable identity for DSS
- “Show the people behind it”
- Association with land-grant university
- Communication
- Use lay-users’ language
- “Show you understand what it means to be a farmer”
- Layer information for different users
- Cultivate habitual reference to site
- Regular outreach
- Keep information updated

## Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS

- Facilitating Appropriate Use of Climate-Based DSS

- Enable users to evaluate forecasts
- Publish forecast history
- Publish forecast performance records
- Explain probability upfront
- Integrate users’ feedback into product development and assessment

## Questions?

**Questions?**

*This research was *
*supported by funding from*
* **NOAA*
*USDA-RMA*
*USDA-CSREES*

- www.agclimate.org

- http://secc.coaps.fsu.edu/