# Presentation: 261098

## Preparing for the Future:Thoughts on Tsunami Risk Reduction

- Bart Hagemeyer
- National Weather Service
- Southern Region
- Melbourne, Florida

**NTHMP Spring Meeting: Introducing NTHMP to U.S. Territories, **
**Commonwealth and Southern and Eastern Coastal States  **
**May 1, 2006 Jacksonville, Florida**

- www.srh.weather.gov

## Communicating Uncertainty and Effective 

**Decision Making in the Face of Uncertainty are  **
**Important Challenges for the Tsunami Program**
**- Particularly “Tsunami Ready”.**

**The Challenge**

**GOAL - Help Ourselves and Partners Better Understand Tsunami Issues and Implement Procedures to Save Lives.**

**As a Practical Matter – Implement Tsunami Ready in**
**Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Coastal Communities**

## There have been less than a dozen scientifically legitimate earthquake predictions.*													 *Pielke 2000

**Very few Tsunami Watches and Warnings **_**ever**_** issued (none in Gulf/Atlantic).**
**There have been less than a dozen scientifically legitimate earthquake predictions.*****	****	****	****	****	****	****	****	****	****	****	****	****	**** *****Pielke 2000**

**Experience Base **

## Tsunamis Seem Quite Different than the 

**Phenomena We Usually Work With. **

**Tsunami - A “New” Natural Hazard**

## Slide 5

## Risk = (Probability) (IMPACT)

***Low Probability, High-Impact Risks are ***
***Difficult to Think About!***
***Tendency to Focus Unduly on the Probability ***
***– ******the “Return Periods”***
***And ***_***not***_*** on the Consequences.***

## Risk Assessment

**Risk Assessment**

***Historical***
***record, possible***
***and worst-case Scenarios***

***Tsunami Modeling***
***Inundation Mapping***
***Demographic Studies***
***Socio-Economic Impact***
***Critical Asset ID etc.***
***HAZUS***

**Threat**

**(Vulnerability, Criticality)**
** **
**Consequences in**
***Lives  and  Economy$***

**A Lot of Work to be Done for all Coastal Areas**

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**Odds of a given Tsunami**
**Scenario in a Given Year**

**Where Do You Commit**
**To Begin Preparation?**

**Challenges with Probability Side of Risk**

## Risk Assessment – In Perspective

***Mathematical Estimate of Chance in any Given Year***

**Consequences in**
***Lives  and  Economy$***

**Risk Assessment – In Perspective**

***Varies Greatly Depending on ***
***Location and Assets at Risk.***

## Risk Assessment – In Perspective

***Location and Assets at Risk.***

**     ****Probability                     Impact**

**Consequences in**
***Lives  and  Economy$***

**Risk Assessment – In Perspective**

***Mathematical Estimate of Chance in any Given Year***

## Vulnerability Aspect of Risk Assessment is Constantly Growing 

**Vulnerability Aspect of Risk Assessment is **_**Constantly Growing**_** **

***Brevard County, FL ***
***Decadal Population***

## “The idea that predictive science can simplify the 

**decision-making process by creating a clearer picture**
** ****of the future is deeply appealing in principle, but **
**deeply problematic in practice.”****   **
**	****	****	****	****	****	****(Pielke et. al. 2000)**

**Another Perspective**

**“****Instead of predicting the future we must develop robust methods with which can cope with almost any change in the future.”**
- 	Ryder and Kimber - Astin Bulletin Vol. 9 No. 3 International Actuarial Assoc.

## Some Things We Know

**Tsunamis Impact the Coastal Zone.**
**Tsunami Will Occur - although Very Rarely.**
**US Coastal Population Growth will Continue at Rapid Pace. Vulnerability is Increasing.**
**There is now a National Tsunami Warning System for Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean.**
**Goal is to Reduce Loss of Life from Tsunamis.**
**Leveraging Existing Program Resources in All-Hazards Approach  will save time, effort and money.**
**It’s Cheaper to Anticipate Than to Respond.**
**Education and Planning Will Help Mitigate Impact.**

## When?
Will We Be Prepared?

- Will We Be Prepared?

**What We Don’t Know**

**Progress on Answering  the Last Question is  What**
**Really Matters.**
**We Can and **_**Must**_** Move Forward with **
**Tsunami Ready**

## A Possible Scenario

- Tsunami Sweeps Atlantic Beaches.
- Prepared
- People educated, plans in place, receive warning, take action.
- Not Prepared
- ...

***July 3, 1992  Daytona Beach ***
*** ******Rogue Wave near Midnight 75 injured***
***(Churchill et. al. BAMS, Vol, 76, No. 1.)***

## Facilitators of Reasonable Action:

**Significant progress on monitoring **
**and warning system in Gulf and Atlantic**

**Implementing Tsunami Ready or at the very least**
**vigorous education/awareness**
**outreach will reduce risk.**

## Completion of Rigorous Risk Assessments for all 

**coastal areas will take considerable time. **
**We consider a Phased Approach to Tsunami **
**Ready/Preparedness for our area**
** – ****Plan does not have to be written in stone on Day 1. **
**Receive/Disseminate Warnings, Education Campaign**
**hurdles are Relatively Low -   Evacuation planning **
**is the highest barrier. **
**      **

**A Philosophy for Risk Assessment **
**and Tsunami Ready**

## - First phase is “Tsunami Aware”: i.e. – education campaign – get warnings – signage a beaches 

**- Implement TR Plans for locations covering their most vulnerable areas – crowded beaches etc. based on reasonable assumptions of non-worst case scenarios.**
**- As more info is added in a **_**Continual Process of Risk Assessment **_** – adjust TR Plans accordingly.**

**A Philosophy for Community Tsunami Ready**

**Some Ideas**

## “A day of worry is more exhausting than a 

***week of work.”***
- 					**John Lubbock**
*	**	**	**	**	**English Statesman and Naturalist*

## Thank You!

- Questions
- Bart Hagemeyer
- bart.hagemeyer@noaa.gov

- www.srh.weather.gov