# Presentation: 033284

## Photovoltaic Technology:  Status and Trends

**Presentation to the ****First NREL Energy Analysis Forum**
**Golden, CO**
**August 13, 2001**

## BP Solar Locations

**Manufacturing & Sales**

**Sales**

**Modules & Sales**

**Notes:**
Commercial!
BP Solar is the world’s largest fully-integrated solar electric company
BP Solar is positioned for growth
Combination of the world’s leading solar companies in July last year  - $170 Million turnover last year and will be into $200s this year
Manufacturing plants in US, Spain, India, Australia
Module assembly plants in Saudi, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Hong Kong
Product sold in 160 countries
20% of global market share
Solar important business stream within BP
Easy to see why – growth rates which other energy sectors can only dream of!

## Solar Electricity Now

- Economically driven global off-grid market
- Policy driven grid markets in Europe, Asia, and California; residential applications dominate.
- Catalog modules – glass and aluminum
- High reliability, long life well established
- Well known systems art – still relatively few practitioners in many countries and most US states
- Visually differentiated BIPV applications
- First wave of distributed generation revolution
- First tier manufacturers concerned with mega-plants and silicon supply issues
- Sales network evolution driven by emerging grid markets
- Crystalline remains the workhorse of the industry

## Solar Electricity 2010

- High market entry barriers
- Economically driven global market structured to exploit value of renewables and distributed generation
- Solar is implicit element of building design
- Catalog solar electric building materials
- Element of roofing, glazing and building electrical systems, with visual impact optional
- On-site electricity properly valued and traded in competitive electricity markets
- Front end manufacturing concentrated in small number of companies
- Sales network includes energy solutions companies
- Thin film becoming the workhorse of the industry

## The Global Solar Electricity Market

**Grid Connected**** *****Relies on government support***

**Remote Industrial**** **
***Fully commercial***

**Remote Rural**** **
***Depends on government policy***

**Consumer Power**** *****Fully commercial***

- Source Strategies Unlimited, April 2000

## PV Market Growth Expectations

## US Market Status and Trends

- Positive
- Public acceptance/demand for solar remains high.
- Off-grid markets remain strong.
- Resistance to net metering is waning.
- Increasing PV industry recognition of need for more complete offers including kitting, system level warranty, performance information,and financing.
- Negative
- Share of global market is shrinking.
- Lack of retail sales infrastructure
- Lack of trained and interested installers in many regions
- Dream of holistic national program strategy is dying

## US Regional Characteristics & Drivers

- California is the best near-term opportunity due to rising power costs, reduced power availability, good sun, and aggressive incentives
- US Electricity Marketplace
- Deregulation – Consumer Choice, Green Energy Marketing
- Increasing Demand led by Telecom and Computers
- Electric Rate Inflation over next 10 years (California, Arizona)
- Compensation for Power at Retail Electric Rates (Net Metering)
- Federal Incentives
- 10% Federal Tax Credit
- 5-year Accelerated Depreciation
- 42% capital tax benefit over first 5 years
- Aggressive state government, regulatory, and utility incentives
- 17 State Renewable Energy Funds – $2 billion from 2001-2012
- Arizona, California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania
- 					Source:  Jigar Shah, BP Solar

## Cumulative Installed PV in the US

## Opportunities

**Rooftop Solar Electricity:**
- Off-sets high cost peak and intermediate power
- Off-sets need for transmission and distribution upgrades.
- Off-sets emissions from existing fuel based power plants
- Provides high “R” value equivalent insulating effect vs. solar heat gain.
- Shields roof from UV exposure, extending roof life (1kW of solar typically requires 125 to 250 square feet of roof space).
- Has zero price risk (cf. price volatility of traditional fuels used to generate electricity).
- Requires minimal maintenance over a 20-30 year design life.
- Modules have high resale value, up to 70% after 5 years and 50% after 10 years.
- Creates in-state jobs vs. balance of trade deficits

## Rooftop Solar Economics

## Barriers (and Recommended Policy Response)

**Policies that make it happen:**
- Net metering for all system sizes with no standby charges
- Simple, uniform and convenient interconnection standards
- Encourage development of retail sales, installation and service infrastructure via:
- Rebates, financing and/or value-based power purchase offers to consumers and companies investing in solar
- Education, training, and other assistance.
- Enhance public awareness and education.
- Regulatory permission to aggregate rooftop solar electricity for resale to other consumers
- Purchase of solar electricity and/or on-site solar generation for state facilities.
- Exemption from sales and use taxes.

## Immediate Issues

- US market
- California electricity crisis – aberration or preview?
- Opportunistic vs. strategic attention by major players
- US Technology Opportunities
- Thin film
- Building materials
- US Program
- One dimensional (R&D).
- Option 1.  Understand and communicate relationship between kWh price and value (to US, state, community, utility and consumer).
- Option 2.  Incentivize currently cost-effective markets.