# Presentation: 163352

## NESDIS ORA PRESENTATION TO NWS PARTNERS WORKSHOPPRECIP, FLASH FLOODS & AVIATION DEVELOPMENTS

- Hank Drahos
- June 24, 2004
- _[Hank.Drahos@noaa.gov](mailto:Hank.Drahos@noaa.gov)_
- http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/index.html

## Upcoming Improvements to the Hydro-Estimator on AWIPS

- Currently, the version of the H-E that is supplied to AWIPS uses GOES-12 (East) data only.  Beginning with an upcoming AWIPS maintenance release (by the end of FY 2004), GOES-10 (West) data will also be used and will improve coverage and accuracy over the Western US.
- Related improvements:
- Areas of missing data will be discriminated from areas of no precipitation (currently both are indicated by zero values);
- Coverage of the AWIPS product will also be extended into Canada.

## Slide 3

**Notes:**
The current Hydro-Estimator coverage on AWIPS compared
with our planned expanded coverage. 

## Upcoming Improvements to the Hydro-Estimator on AWIPS

- In response to an NWS request, a version of the H-E for Hawaii is being developed.  Operational implementation is anticipated in FY 2006.
- The NWS has also requested H-E coverage over Puerto Rico.  Arrangements are being made for coverage to be extended to Puerto Rico in a future AWIPS build (the H-E is already available for Puerto Rico via the Web).

## Upcoming Improvements to the Hydro-Estimator on AWIPS

- A recalibration of the H-E cloud top temperature/rainfall rate curve has been initiated.
- Incorporating lightning data into H-E and the Hydro-Nowcaster.

## Flash flood producing thunderstorm over the Washington DC Metropolitan 

**Flash flood producing thunderstorm over the Washington DC Metropolitan **
**Region with 5 minute cloud to ground lightning superimposed:**
**                                ****June 17, 2004 at 7:00 PM**

**GOES**
** ****12**
**10.7********m**
**    ****IR**

## Three hour Nowcasts for July 1, 2002,  0600 - 0900 UTC

**Three hour Nowcasts for July 1, 2002,  0600 - 0900 UTC**

**Hydro - Nowcaster                [inches]               Stage III**

**Notes:**
This is an example of our experimental Hydro-Nowcaster that is a three our forecast of precipitation.

## GOES Aviation Products on AWIPS

- _Current Capabilities_
- Images (Vis, IR, WV)
- Fog (11-4m)
- Volcanic Ash (11-12m; GOES-10 only)
- Sounder products
- Cloud Top Height
- Lifted Index
- Soundings
- Microburst Indices (Wind Index, MDPI)

- _Potential Upgrades_ *
- Low Cloud Base **
- Aircraft Icing
- Ozone (CAT potential)
- Global cloud tops
- Volcanic ash (GOES-12 through 15) **
- Wet Microburst Potential Index

- * *None on current AWIPS *
*  **Build schedules*
*** *Supported by NWS

**Notes:**
Satellite products that support aviation currently available on AWIPS shown at left.  Potential upgrades at right have not been added to Build schedules, although two (LCB and volcanic ash) are being funded by NWS.

## GOES Low Cloud Base Product

- Shows where low ceilings & fog are likely
- Based on GOES IR – surface temperature
- Verification (lower 48)
- POD ~ 72%
- FAR ~ 11%
- Low clouds may be obscured by cirrus

**Notes:**
Areas of low clouds (ceilings below 1,000ft) are shown as red.  Higher stratus clouds (above 1,000 ft) are green.  Cirrus clouds are blue.

## GOES Aircraft Icing Potential

- Shows likely areas of supercooled clouds + cloud top heights
- Uses Imager IR & Visible + Sounder
- Not able to detect SLD (Supercooled Large Drop) icing
- Cirrus obscuration

**Notes:**
Product shows icing risk areas from Imager color-coded according to cloud top heights derived from Sounder.

## Full Disk Cloud Top Image

- Global cloud top coverage
- Uses new 13.3 m IR on GOES-12+
- More accurate cloud top heights for volcanic ash plumes

**Notes:**
Imager cloud top pressures/heights can be obtained over vast expanses of ocean from GOES-12.  This could be useful for volcanic ash advisories.

## GOES Ozone Product

- High ozone levels are found in tropopause “folds” near upper level fronts
- Correlate with clear air turbulence
- CIMSS ozone product derived from Sounder

-                   CIMSS Ozone Product
- http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/realtime/grtmain.html#ozone

**Notes:**
Ozone concentrations (Dobson Units) are derived hourly from the GOES sounder using statistical regression.  The Sounder has an ozone absorption channel centered near 9.7 um.