# Presentation: 438696

##                     Progress of CTB Transition Project Team for                                              Land Data Assimilation:         Impact on CFS of:  A) new land model (Noah LSM)                                          B) new land initial conditions (from 27-year T126 GLDAS/Noah)

**10-year 10-member 6-month T126 CFS runs ****(GFS-OP3T3,MOM-3)**
- Four configurations of T126 CFS:
- A) CFS/OSU/GR2:                  - OSU LSM, initial land states from GR2 (_CONTROL_)
- B) CFS/Noah/GR2:                 - Noah LSM, initial land states from GR2
- C) CFS/Noah/GLDAS:            - Noah LSM, initial land states from T126 GLDAS/Noah
- D) CFS/Noah/GLDAS-Climo:  - Noah LSM, initial land states from GLDAS/Noah climo
- 10 summers:	(88, 90, 91, 93, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04)
- Initial conditions:  00Z daily from Apr 19-23, Apr 29-30, May 1-3
- 10 winters:	(83, 88, 89, 90, 98, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04)
- Initial conditions: 00Z daily from Nov 29-30, Dec 1-3, Dec 19-23
**For summers 1999 & 2000 only**
- Ensemble size test (Case B only, 5 added members from April 9-13 I.C.s for total of 15)
- Lead time test (Cases B & C, 10 added members run from May 30-31, Jun1-3, Jun 19-23 I.C.s)
- Also for test of CFS version (in FY06 CTB, we tested current ops CFS with Noah at T126)
**For summer 2003 only** (to compare with Augustin’s CTB CFS tests)
- 7 members, 2-month fcsts (same July initial dates as Augustin, for Aug fcst)
- 10-year 10-member runs just finished on CTB/HAZE on April 8
- Only time thus far for evaluation of 1999 summer ensemble over U.S. for precip
- Results of above pilot evaluation of CFS experiments shown in next frame
- Plus 3 additional frames comparing GLDAS/Noah and GR2/OSU soil moisture

## CFS Predicted July 1999 Precipitation Anomaly (mm)

**CFS Test A: Control**
**T126 CFS **_**/ OSU / GR2**_

**CFS Test C: **
**T126 CFS **_**/ Noah / GLDAS**_

**Impact of Upgrading Land Surface Model and Land Surface Initial Conditions in **_**Seasonal 3-Month Forecasts**_** of the Experimental NCEP Climate Forecast System**

** ****With respect to 10-year **
**climate of given CFS model**
**from 10-member ensemble**
**of CFS forecasts from**
_**April initial conditions**_

** ****July 99 Observed Anomaly**

_**Black Circles**_**: Worse than Case C**

_**White Circles**_**: Best or decent**

**CFS Test B:**
**T126 CFS **_**/ Noah / GR2**_

_**CFS Test A**_**: Control**
- - old OSU LSM
- - GR2 initial land states
_**CFS Test B**_**:**
- - new Noah LSM
- - GR2 initial land states
_**CFS Test C**_**:**
- - new Noah LSM
-  GLDAS initial land states
_**CFS Test D**_**:**
-  New Noah LSM
-  GLDAS climo initial land states

**CFS Test D:**
**T126 CFS **_**/ Noah /GLDAS-climo**_

**CFS Predicted July 1999 Precipitation Anomaly ****(mm)**

## GLDAS/Noah (top) versus GR2/OSU (bottom) 2-meter soil moisture (% volumetric)May 1st Climatology                01 May 1999 Anomaly

- GLDAS/Noah (_top_) versus GR2/OSU (_bottom_) **2-meter soil moisture** (% volumetric)_**May 1**__**st**_** ****Climatology****                **_**01 May 1999**_** ****Anomaly**

**Left column**: GLDAS/Noah soil moisture climo is generally higher then GR2/OSU
**Middle column**: GLDAS/Noah soil moisture anomaly pattern agrees better
- than that of GR2/OSU with observed precipitation anomaly (right column: top)

**Top: observed 90-day**
**Precipitation Anomaly**
**(mm) valid 30 April 99**
**Bottom: Climatology**

## GLDAS/Noah (top) versus GR2/OSU (bottom) 2-meter soil moisture (% volumetric)May 1st Climatology                                01 May 1999 Anomaly

**GLDAS/Noah (**_**top**_**)**** versus ****GR2/OSU (**_**bottom**_**)**** ****2-meter soil moisture** (% volumetric)_**May 1**__**st**_** ****Climatology****                                **_**01 May 1999**_** ****Anomaly**

## Monthly Time Series (1985-2004) of Area-mean Illinois 2-meter Soil Moisture [mm]:Observations (black), GLDAS/Noah (purple),  GR2/OSU (green)

- The climatology of GLDAS/Noah soil moisture is higher and closer to the observed climatology than that of GR2/OSU, while the anomlies of all three show generally
- better agreement (though some exceptions)