# Presentation: 559983

## Polar Orbiting Satellite Data in NWP – Present and Future

*“**Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”*

- Polar Max
- Silver Spring, MD
- October 26, 2005

- Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
- Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

## The NOAA Prediction Process
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

- Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

- Overview

## The NOAA Prediction Process

## The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

**Research, Development and Technology Infusion**

**Respond &**** Feedback**

**IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center**

***Feedback***

**Distribute**

**Process**

**Observe**

**Products & Forecast Services**

**To Serve Diverse **
**Customer Base **
**e.g., National Association of **
**State Energy Officials,**
**Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, ...**

## Need for a Balanced Approach

- Global                                                   observations
- Oceans
- Atmosphere
- Land
- Cryosphere
- Numerical Prediction Models
- Computational Power/Communications
- Forecasters

## Global Observations 12 UTC 6 hour window

- Polar Satellite Radiances (2 sat)

- Satellite Winds

- DMSP Imager – Sfc winds/PW

- 99.99% of data derived from satellites

## Model Dependencies:

- Forecast
- System

-   Climate
-   Forecast
-   System

- GFDL
- Hurricane

- NOAH Land Surface Model

- Dispersion

- Air Quality

- Basis for How Predictions are Made

- Aviation
- Hourly Forecast

**G**
**L**
**O**
**B**
**A**
**L**

**D**
**A**
**T**
**A**

- Ocean

- Ocean

- North American
-  Mesoscale Model
- (NAM)

- Ocean

- Short-Range
- Ensemble

- Medium
- Range
- Ensemble
- (NAEFS)

- Severe Weather

## The Environmental Forecast Process

- Observations

- Analysis

- Model Forecast

- Post-processed Model Data

- Forecaster

- User (public, industry...)

- Numerical
- Forecast
- System

- Data
- Assimilation

**Has implications**
**for how to apply**
**CAL/VAL to**
**future instruments**

## Computing Capability

- Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily
- Sustained Computational Speed:  1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec
- Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day
- Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)
- Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)
- Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)
- 3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005
- Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005

***Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)***

**$26.4M/Year Investment**

## Production Generation Summary:  

- 2001

- 2002

- 2003

- 2004

- 2005

- Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

- Production Generation Summary:
- Sustaining “On Time” Delivery

**Notes:**
The data points for the Cray operations in Suitland are typical for the entire life of the system.  

When the J90 backup operations were in place, additional products were being delivered to the NWS Telecommunications gateway from backup operations at OSO.  Those backup products were not included in these statistics.  This summary only covers products delivered from NCEP directly.

Even after the IBM SP became operational in Bowie, data ingest and product generation continued on the Cray J90s in Suitland.  May 2000 is the first full month with no dependency on the Suitland complex.

Operations on the IBM SP has been extremely stable.  Product Delivery in December achieved its highest level, with 98.7% of products delivered on time.  Note the dramatic improvement in OOS retrieval of products from the Phase II system.

## Reasons behind improvements

- Began using satellite radiances in 94-95
- Began using “raw” radiances (as opposed to cloud-cleared) 98-99
- Other improvement  due to a balance among
- Observations
- Data Assimilation & Model technology
- Computing resources
- Estimated 30-40% of improvement from observations (principally global LEO satellite data) and 60-70% from data assimilation and modeling techniques and computing resources

## The Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

- Formed in 2001
- Infrastructure for real-time access to                     operational and research satellite data                            from GOES, AMSU, Quikscat, AIRS, MODIS,...
- Community fast forward radiative transfer scheme ... operational data assimilation and model forecast systems available to research and forecast communities
- Supports “internal” and “external research” and data assessments on NOAA/NCEP computers

- The Research Community is now using the operational infrastructure.

- The Operational Community is now accelerating use of satellite data.

**Notes:**
Good morning! It’s a plsre tbh. Prvldge t attnd JCSDA SWG  mting worg by  FW deputy director of Joint Center and excon by SL NWS/EMC director, dep. Director. Mting credit to three managing the joint center program. Mtg provides Op to talk on roadmap despit being here for 4wd. .. premier 

During the last couple of years, with strong supports from all upper-level management, satellite data assimilation activities within NOAA/NASA have been gradually consolidated into a joint center program. This program will be soon of national and international visibility. Its success will mean a lot to all of us. Its ultimate outcomes would be many and much improved weather and climate prediction skills. 

A few months ago, I gave a brief at NESDIS front office on Joint center program plan. Since then, we have made a quite advances in many areas. It is about time to report to you again.   
Plsre tbh, plsre t att. JCSDA SW wo and r by FW & SL. Clarified MI Made aw of M Ach to date. Hpe to contr   Backgrnd bal vw.      

## JCSDA Mission and Vision

- Mission: Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather and climate analysis and prediction models
- Near-term Vision: A weather and climate analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations
- Long-term Vision: An environmental analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively use the integrated observations of the GEOSS – and be ready for NPOESS at “Day 1” after launch

## Five Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Next Ten Years

- Count (Millions)

**Daily Satellite & Radar Observation Count**

- 2000

- 1990

- 2010

- 2010-10%of obs

**2002  100 M obs**

- NPOESS Era Data Volume

**2003-4    125 M obs**

- Level 2 radar data 2 B

**2005 210 M obs**

## Satellite data used operationally 

**Satellite data used operationally **
**within the NCEP Global Forecast System (2005)**

| 
HIRS sounder radiances
AMSU-A sounder radiances
AMSU-B sounder radiances
GOES sounder radiances
GOES 9,10,12, Meteosat
atmospheric motion vectors
GOES precipitation rate
SSM/I ocean surface wind speeds
SSM/I precipitation rates | 
TRMM precipitation rates 
ERS-2 ocean surface wind vectors
Quikscat ocean surface wind vectors
AVHRR SST
AVHRR vegetation fraction
AVHRR surface type
Multi-satellite snow cover
Multi-satellite sea ice
SBUV/2 ozone profile and total ozone
AIRS  |
| --- | --- |

## JCSDA Road Map (2002 - 2010)

**Improved JCSDA data assimilation science**

**2002**

**2004**

**2007**

**2008**

**2009    **

**2005**

**OK**

**Required**

**2003**

**Advanced JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model,**
**Advanced data thinning techniques **

**Science Advance**

***By 2010, a numerical weather prediction community will be empowered to effectively assimilate  increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations***

**2010    **

**AMSU, HIRS, SSM/I, Quikscat,**
**AVHRR, TMI, GOES assimilated**

**AIRS, ATMS, CrIS, VIIRS,  IASI, SSM/IS, AMSR, WINDSAT, GPS ,more products  assimilated**

**Pre-JCSDA data assimilation science **

- Radiative transfer model, OPTRAN, ocean microwave emissivity, microwave land emissivity model, and GFS data assimilation system were developed

- The radiances of satellite sounding channels were assimilated into EMC global model under only clear atmospheric conditions. Some satellite surface  products (SST, GVI and snow cover, wind) were used in EMC  models

- A beta version of JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model (CRTM) transfer model will be developed, including non-raining clouds, snow and sea ice surface conditions

- The radiances from advanced sounders will be used. Cloudy radiances will be tested under rain-free atmospheres, more products (ozone, water vapor winds)

**NPOESS sensors ( CMIS, ATMS...)**
** ****GIFTS, GOES-R**

- The CRTM include cloud, precipitation, scattering

- The radiances can be assimilated under all conditions with the state-of-the science NWP models

**Resources:**

**3D VAR  -----------------------------------------------------4D VAR**

**2006**

## Common assimilation infrastructure at NOAA and NASA
Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system
Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers
Community radiative transfer model-Significant new developments,                New release June 2005
Snow/sea ice emissivity model – permits 300% increase in sounding data usage over high latitudes – improved polar forecasts – May 2005
Impact studies of POES AMSU, Quikscat, GOES and  EOS AIRS/MODIS with JCSDA data assimilation systems completed
Advanced satellite data systems such as EOS (MODIS Winds, Aqua AIRS, AMSR-E) tested for implementation
      -MODIS winds, polar regions  - improved forecasts. Current Implementation
      -Aqua AIRS - improved forecasts.  (Implemented May 2005)
Improved physically based SST analysis – operational testing
Advanced satellite data systems such as DMSP (SSMIS), CHAMP GPS 
      being tested for implementation. 
Upcoming implementation of new selection procedure for AIRS data and  addition of MODIS winds (Oct 25, 2005)
Preparing for GPS/COSMIC

- Common assimilation infrastructure at NOAA and NASA
- Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system
- Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers
- Community radiative transfer model-Significant new developments,                New release June 2005
- Snow/sea ice emissivity model – permits 300% increase in sounding data usage over high latitudes – improved polar forecasts – May 2005
- Impact studies of POES AMSU, Quikscat, GOES and  EOS AIRS/MODIS with JCSDA data assimilation systems completed
- Advanced satellite data systems such as EOS (MODIS Winds, Aqua AIRS, AMSR-E) tested for implementation
-       -MODIS winds, polar regions  - improved forecasts. Current Implementation
-       -Aqua AIRS - improved forecasts.  (Implemented May 2005)
- Improved physically based SST analysis – operational testing
- Advanced satellite data systems such as DMSP (SSMIS), CHAMP GPS
-       being tested for implementation.
- Upcoming implementation of new selection procedure for AIRS data and  addition of MODIS winds (Oct 25, 2005)
- Preparing for GPS/COSMIC

- Some Major Accomplishments

## AIRS data coverage at 06 UTC on 31 January 2004. (Obs-Calc. Brightness Temperatures at 661.8 cm-1are shown) 

**AIRS data coverage at 06 UTC on 31 January 2004. (Obs-Calc. Brightness Temperatures at 661.8 cm****-1****are shown) **

## CURRENT SATELLITE DATA - STATUS

| AIRS v1.  | Implemented MAY 2005 |
| --- | --- |
| AIRS v2.  | Completed Operational Trial - NCO |
| MODIS Winds  | Completed Operational Trial - NCO |
| NOAA-18 AMSU-A  | Completed Operational Trial - NCO |
| NOAA-18 MHS  | Completed Operational Trial - NCO |
| NOAA-17 SBUV Total Ozone  | Completed Operational Trial - NCO |
| NOAA-17 SBUV Ozone Profile  | Completed Operational Trial - NCO |
| SSM/I Radiances  | Operational Trial with GSI compl. (  prod. now used) |
| COSMIC/CHAMP  | Testing Assim. System |
| SSMIS  | Quality Control and Data Selection being Finalized |
| MODIS Winds v2.  | RT Testing |
| WINDSAT  | Wind Vector Assimilation - Active |
| AMSR/E – Radiance Assimilation  | Test and  Development |
| AIRS/MODIS Sounding Channels Assim. | Data in Preparation |
| GOES – SW Winds | To be Tested  |
| GOES Hourly Winds | To be Tested  |
| GOES 11 and 12 Clear Sky Rad. Assim(6.7μm)  | To be Tested  |
| MTSAT 1R Wind Assim. | Data in Preparation  |
| AURA OMI | Test and Development  |
| TOPEX,JASON1,ERS-2 ENVISAT ALTIMETER | Test and Development, Ops 06 GODAS |
| FY – 2C   | Data in Preparation  |

**Implementation scheduled for  Oct 25, 2005**

## AIRS Data Usage 

| 
Data Category | Number of AIRS Channels |
| --- | --- |
| Total Data Utilized by  Analysis
Data Selected for Possible Use
Data Used in 3D VAR Analysis(Clear Radiances) | ~200x106 radiances (channels) 
~2.1x106 radiances (channels)
~0.85x106 radiances (channels) |

**AIRS Data Usage **
**per Six Hourly Analysis Cycle**
**with Oct 25 Implementation**

## Operational prior to Oct 25

- Operational on Oct 25

## Operational prior to Oct 25

- Operational on Oct 25

## Balance is needed among observations, modeling and computational power
Dependence on Global Observing System for all predictions 
The Global Observing System is increasingly dominated by satellite observations
Getting ready for NPOESS:  must prepare for
Increased data accuracy (high spectral resolution)
Increased volume of data
Improved CAL/VAL process to insure accelerated use of data
Sustaining the timeliness of operations
Improved data assimilation and model prediction systems to ingest and use all satellite data in real time for a total Earth System
To be ready for NPOESS: A successful JCSDA

- Dependence on Global Observing System for all predictions
- The Global Observing System is increasingly dominated by satellite observations
- Getting ready for NPOESS:  must prepare for
- Increased data accuracy (high spectral resolution)
- Increased volume of data
- Improved CAL/VAL process to insure accelerated use of data
- Sustaining the timeliness of operations
- Improved data assimilation and model prediction systems to ingest and use all satellite data in real time for a total Earth System
- To be ready for NPOESS: A successful JCSDA

- Summary