# Presentation: 369413

## Vision for Marine and Coastal Services Digital Products

***Jamie Vavra***
***Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch***
***Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services***

-                               *March 2003*

## Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch (W/OS21) Responsibilities

**Manage Products and Services for:**
***Marine Program ***
**Ocean Prediction Center **
**Tropical Prediction Center - Tropical Analysis Forecast Branch**
**Weather  Forecast Offices **
***Tropical Cyclone Program ***
**Tropical Prediction Center **
**Central Pacific Hurricane Center**
**Weather Forecast Offices **
***Coastal and Great Lakes Programs ***
** ****Weather Forecast Offices **

## Marine and Coastal Weather Service Vision for Digital Products

**Provide weather elements we now describe in text format in gridded and graphical formats**
**Extend from current deterministic approach for products to increase availability of gridded and graphical probabilistic forecasts**
**Provide seamless product suites from WFOs and National Centers**
**Extend product suite to include gridded and graphical threat outlooks for Marine, Coastal and Tropical hazards **

## Initial Marine NDFD Elements

***Marine Weather Elements ***
***Wave Height = Significant Wave Height***** **
**Prepared experimentally for Operational Readiness Demonstration*****  (June, 2003)***
**General Weather Elements prepared over Marine Zones:**
***Coastal Waters***
***Nearshore***
***Open Lake***
***Offshore (WFOs Honolulu, HI and Anchorage, AK)***
**Surface Wind Direction and Speed (10 meters) June, 2003**
**Weather, April 2003**

## Forecast Winds and Waves for Coastal Waters Zones

- WFO Portland,OR

## Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements 

**Marine Elements**
***Visibility***
***Swell Height and Direction***
***Wave Steepness***
***Wave Period and Direction***
***Ice Coverage ***
***Ice Accretion***
**Additional General Weather Elements over Marine Zones:**
***Wind Gusts***
***Air Temperature ?***

## Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements (continued)

**Grids from National Centers with Marine and Tropical Responsibility ---**
**	****WFOs use  in IFPS to initialize grids over Coastal Waters  Zones**

-      Significant Wave Height

## Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements (continued)

**Extend spatial **
**    ****domain for NDFD**
**    ****To provide marine  elements from the  National Centers with Marine and Tropical Responsibility over Offshore and High Seas Zones **

-     Wind and Wave Forecasts

## Proposed Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements (continued)

**Use TPC generated Gridded TCM to initialize wind grids in IFPS during 2003 Tropical Cyclone Season**
**Initial capabilities included in IFPS 13**

## Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements (continued)

**Tropical Cyclone Probabilistic Wind Grids**
**Forecast probability of 34, 50, 64 knot winds **
**Use in IFPS for guidance to WFOs and make available in NDFD**
**Example depicted is 72 hour forecast from Hurricane Lili historical case**

- TPC Proposed Future Product

## Proposed Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements (continued)

**Threat Outlooks for Tropical Cyclone Hazards such as:**
***Waves***
***Surge***
***Tornados***
***Flash Flood***
***Wind  ***
**Threat Outlooks for Marine Hazardous Weather such as:**
*** ******Waterspouts***
*** ******Rip Currents ***

## Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements (continued)

**Ice Coverage Grid**
**Expressed in %**
**Available in IFPS 14**
**Guidance from National Ice Center will not initially be available in IFPS**
**Plan to add as AWIPS requirement for OB4 time frame (2004)**

- National Ice Center Analysis

## Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements (continued)

**Role of Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch **
***Define NDFD marine and tropical weather elements***
***Prepare requirement documents for new datasets and capabilities on AWIPS to support new elements***
***Set timelines for implementation of new marine elements and general weather elements over Marine Zones***
**In coordination with Regional Marine and Tropical Focal Points and NDFD IWT**
***If you feel strongly about implementation of specific elements, contact:***
**Jamie Vavra, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch**
**Regional Marine and Tropical Focal Points**

## Proposed Future Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements (continued)

**Future Marine elements and General Weather Elements over Marine Zones:**
***Before committing to making additional elements operationally available via NDFD we need to think about:***
**Which marine and tropical elements do our customers need?**
**What guidance is needed on AWIPS to prepare additional grids over the marine zones? **
**Which elements that are difficult to forecast with high skill can be expressed probabilistically?**
**How can we best validate gridded forecasts over the marine zones given existing sparse marine observational network?**

## Forecasts for Open Lakes Zones

**New Shapefiles for Great Lakes **
**Geographic Divisions definitions set in coordination with WFOs and Regional Marine Focal Points**
**Prepared for use in IFPS  - expected in April 2003**

- New Shapefile for Lake Superior

## Forecast Winds and Waves for Nearshore and Open Lakes Zones

- Lake Superior Forecast by WFO Marquette, MI

-  Issue:  Preparation of Marine Grids over Canadian AOR      ----OS21 will coordinate with Environment Canada

## Marine and Coastal Services Contacts

**For additional information on our products and services visit our Internet pages:**
***Marine and Coastal Services***
_**[http://weather.gov/om/marine/home.htm](http://weather.gov/om/marine/home.htm)**_
***Ocean Prediction Center***
_**[http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/](http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/)**_
***Tropical Prediction Center***
_**[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)**_
**We welcome your feedback on our plans for new Marine, Coastal and Tropical Products**
***Send comments and questions to ***
_**[Jamie.](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**__**[Vavra](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**__**[@](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**__**[noaa](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**__**[.](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**__**[gov](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**_
**301-713-1677 x 111**