# Presentation: 311712

## The Path Forward on Earth Observations and  Climate Change

**Assistant Director for Environment**
**Office of Science and Technology Policy**
**Executive Office of the President**
- WISP Meeting - July 25, 2007

***The Path Forward on Earth Observations and  Climate Change***

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## “Climate change is the 800 pound gorilla in the room.” *

- * Sources too numerous to list.

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##  Started with the U.S. Global Change Research 	Act in 1990

** ****Started with the U.S. Global Change Research ****	****Act in 1990**
** ****13 Federal agencies**
** ****13 years**
** ****$1.6 billion/yr, $20 billion total**
** ****Basic research and global monitoring**
** ****International collaboration and cooperation**

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## U.S. Climate Change Science Program Goals

**2.  Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems **
**3.  Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and environmental systems may change in the future **
**4.  Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes **
**5.  Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change **

_**U.S. Climate Change Science Program Goals**_

- DOWNSTREAM

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## 

| 4-6 | Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems |
| --- | --- |
| 4-7 | Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study |
| 5-1 | Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions. |
| 5-2 | Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. |
| 5-3 | Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data |

| 2-3 | Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate |
| --- | --- |
| 3-1 | Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations for User Applications |
| 3-3 | Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific islands. |
| 3-4 | Abrupt Climate Change |
| 4-1 | Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise |
| 4-3 | The effects of climate change on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water resources |
| 4-5 | Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States |

_**U.S. Climate Change Science Program**_
_**Synthesis and Assessment Products**_
- (a sample most relevant to weather & transportation out of 21 total)

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## FY09 Research Priorities

_**FY09 Research Priorities**_
- • Quantification of Climate Forcing and Feedbacks by Aerosols, Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases, Water Vapor, and Clouds
- • Assessing Abrupt Changes in a Warming Climate: Examining the feasibility of developing an abrupt change early warning system
- • Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability: A focus toward creating a high-quality record of the state of the atmosphere and ocean since 1979
- • Development of an End-to-End Hydrologic Projection and Application Capability
- • Enhanced Carbon Cycle Research on High Latitude Systems
- • Ecological Forecasting

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## Precipitation change between 1980s and 2090s 

- IPCC 2007 – WG1-AR4

**Precipitation change between 1980s and 2090s **

- %

**IPCC reports......**
**Strong U.S. participation**

**Winter**

**Summer**

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## Climate change science is not finished!

**More accurate rendering of natural systems by models through incorporation of clouds, aerosols, and other variables not currently handled**
**Higher resolution models to provide regional and local climate forecasts**
**More emphasis on impacts of climate change and understanding the mechanisms of climate change through the impacts**
**Exploration of innovative adaptation strategies**

**Climate change science is not finished!**

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## “You can’t manage what you don’t measure.”*

**“****You can’t manage what you don’t measure.”***

- * An old adage from business community

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## 
Vision:  “Enable a healthy public, economy, and planet through an integrated, comprehensive, and  sustained Earth observation system.” 

Purpose of USGEO:  “to provide a management, planning, and resource allocation strategy for a U.S. Integrated Earth
Observation System”

_***Vision:***_**  “Enable a healthy public, economy, and planet through an **_**integrated**_**, **_**comprehensive**_**, and  **_**sustained**_** Earth observation system.” **
_***Purpose of USGEO:***_**  “to provide a **_**management**_**, **_**planning**_**, and **_**resource allocation**_** strategy for a U.S. Integrated Earth**
**Observation System”**

_**U.S. Group on Earth Observations**_

**http://usgeo.gov**

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## Goals for the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System*

** ****Prioritize investments, including for new requirements, as necessary.**
** ****Establish U.S. policies for Earth observations and data management, and continue U.S. policies of open access to observations, encouraging other countries to do likewise.**

_***Goals for the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System****_

- * Verbatim from a longer list in the USGEO Strategic Plan

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## Integrated Earth Observation System Societal Benefits

**Improve Weather Forecasting**
**Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters**
**Protect and Monitor our Ocean Resources**
**Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change**
**Support Sustainable Agriculture and Combat Land Degradation**

**Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors on Human Health & Well Being**
**Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts**
**Protect and Monitor Water Resources**
**Monitor and Manage Energy Resources**

_**Integrated Earth **__**Observation**__** System Societal Benefits**_

- Look for the environmental observational value chain that ends here

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**Electric grid analogy**

_**Visualizing an Integrated Earth Observations System**_

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** ****Existing Policy Foundation for Earth Observations**
** ****Coordination of Federal Earth Observation Activities**
** ****Roles and Responsibilities of Federal Agencies and EOP Offices**
** ****The role of defense and intelligence communities in Earth observations**
** ****Role of State, local, regional, and tribal governments and institutions**
** ****Role of the Commercial/Industrial/Private Sector/NGOs/Academia**
** ****Guidelines for Research-to-Operations Transition**
** ****International Cooperation in Earth observations**
** ****Earth observations technical architecture**
** ****Data collection, archiving, and availability**
** ****Capacity Building for Earth Observations**

_**U.S. Earth Observations Policy: The **__**“HOW”**_

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## Earth Observation Capabilities:

_**Assessment & Planning: The **__**“WHAT”**_

**1.  **_**Assess**_** existing Earth observation capabilities**

**2.  Define national **_**needs**_** for societal benefits**

**3.  Identify **_**gaps**_** and overlaps**

**4.  Establish **_**priorities**_** or value system**

**5.  Identify agencies responsible for priority needs**

**6.  Coordinate **_**budget planning**_** with agencies and OMB**

**7.  **_**Implement**_** and manage priority systems**

- .....ongoing process......

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**GEO/GEOSS****Group on Earth Observations/Global Earth Observations System of Systems**_**[http://](http://www.earthobservations.org/)**__**[www.earthobservations.org](http://www.earthobservations.org/)**_

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