# Presentation: 168187

## Research Project #6

- Develop Better Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- Identify precursors that might be strong predictors of accidents
- Establish research projects that would evaluate the strength of the precursor to predict accidents

- Project Purpose

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- Form Working Group from modal safety experts
- Volpe review of current work

- Project Tasks

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- Identify Potential-Accident relationships
- Prioritize Proposed projects
- Develop Research protocols

- Project Tasks

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- Evaluation of Data or Method of Collection
- Safety Culture Analysis
- Specific Precursor-Outcome Relationships
- Technology Transfer

- Proposed Research Areas

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- Mining to Establish Sequence of Events
- Use Text Mining to search narrative reports for the sequence of events that resulted in an accident.

- Evaluation of Data or Method
- of Collection

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- A Human Factors Analysis of Precursors Associated with Incidents/Accidents
- Looks at Reason’s ‘Swiss cheese’ model of accidents
- Incorporates human factors aspects to help understand the combination of factors that result in an accident

- Evaluation of Data or Method
- of Collection

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- Other proposals:
- Retrospective interview and survey information
- Assessment of data needs for GIS
- Documentation of safety “successes” as well as failures
- Various forms of data modeling to establish potential for accidents

- Evaluation of Data or Method
- of Collection

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- Organizational safety culture and other indicators of accident risk
- Investigate both the “driver” and the company
- Workload - an indicator of accident risk
- Identify “culture” attributes that are characteristic of “problem” operators

- Safety Culture Analysis

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- Study the Feasibility of Possible Profiling Systems
- Investigate the operability and utility of “profiling” of carriers & operators
- Using an Indexing System to Identify Precursors for Vehicle Crashes, Injuries and Deaths
- Utilize a point system to rate risk of accidents

- Safety Culture Analysis

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- Experience & Training As Predictor of Hazardous Materials Incidents
- Several other proposals:
- Noise Levels and Distraction
- Social Needs and Nocturnal Work Activity
- Tracking Undeclared Hazardous Materials Shipments
- Traffic Intensity at the Sector Level
- Driving Records as a Predictor of Crash Involvement

- Specific Precursor-Outcome
- Relationships

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- Use of Flight Data Recorder Technology to Predict Accidents in other modes

- Technology Transfer

## Improve Data on Accident Precursors or Leading Indicators

- Input:
- Stakeholder Input
- Safety in Numbers Conference
- DOT Safety Data Task Force
- Top projects to be identified for funding early in 2002.

- Select Projects for Research