# Presentation: 110463

## ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORCASTING IN BANGLADESH (2004-2012)

**Workshop on **
**Advanced Forecasting & Modeling Techniques **
**5-9 January 2004**
**Team Members of Bangladesh  **

## STRUCTURE OF POWER SECTOR

**OWNER  & REGULATOR **
**POWER DIVISION ,MINISTRY OF POWER, ENERGY & MINERAL RESOURCES (MPEMR)**
**GENERATION **
**BANGLADESH POWER DEVELOPMENT BOARD (BPDB)**
**INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCER (IPP)**
**RURAL POWER COMPANY LTD (RPCL) **
**TRANSMISSION **
**POWER GRID COMPANY  OF BAGLADESH (PGCB)**

## STRUCTURE OF POWER SECTOR (contd..)

**DISTRIBUTION **
**BANGLADESH POWER DEVELOPMENT BOARD(BPDB)**
**	****------****	****WEST ZONE POWER DISTRIBUTION COMPANY   **
**              ****LIMITED (WZPDCL) **
**DHAKA ELECTRIC SUPPLY AUTHORITY(DESA)**
**DHAKA ELECTRIC SUPPLY COMPANY (DESCO)**
**RURAL ELECTRIFICATION BOARD**** (REB)**

## SALIENT FEATURES OF PRESENT POWER SYSTEM

**Installed capacity**
**	****	****	****Public           ****	****  : 3420 MW(73%)**
**	****	****	****IPP                ****	****  :1290 MW (27%)**
**	****	****	****Total            ****	****   : 4710 MW(100%)**
**Generation Capacity         ****	****   : 4300 MW**
**Demand Supplied so far               ****	****    : 3622 MW **
**Transmission Line**
**	****	****230 KV                      ****	****   :683 Km**
**	****	****132 KV                      ****	****   :3176 km**
**Distribution Line****	****       ****	**** : 2,09,932 km**
**Consumer Number           ****	****  : 7.1 million**
**Per capita Generation      ****	****  : 144 KWh p.a. **
**Per capita consumption    ****	**** : 110 KWh p.a. **
**Access to Electricity          ****	****  : 32 % **
**	**

## Historical Data on Generation & Consumption (MKWh)

| Fiscal 
year | Generation
(Net) | Average Growth Rate(%) | Consumption | Average Growth Rate(%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1994 | 89221 | 

8.4% | 6149 | 

9.3% |
| 1995 | 10168 |  | 6934 |  |
| 1996 | 10833 |  | 7454 |  |
| 1997 | 11243 |  | 7821 |  |
| 1998 | 12194 |  | 8382 |  |
| 1999 | 13639 |  | 9421 |  |
| 2000 | 13739 |  | 10083 |  |
| 2001 | 16254 |  | 11409 |  |
| 2002 | 17445 |  | 12566 |  |
| 2003 | 18422 |  | 13717 |  |

## Projection Methodology

**10 years(1994-2003) sales data as a function of GDP & population  have been used for the analysis****.**
**The methodology used in projection  is based on  regression techniques .**
**The Ordinary Least Squares(OLS) regression trend line  has been estimated by using linear as well as Logarithmic equations.**
**For the analysis Eviews3.1 Student version has been used as Tool.**

## Equation used in the Analysis

**Sales = c****0**** +c****1****(GDP)+ c****2****(population)**
**Log(sales) = a****0**** + a****1****log(GDP)+ a****2****log(population)**
**In case of  linear equation coefficient of population has been found negative which is not acceptable. From the Correlation  it is seen that both GDP and population are significantly correlated  to each other.**
**And the linear equation has been modified, dropping population and the results are fairly good.**
**On the other hand log equation does not give good statistical parameters compared to linear equation .**
**That’s why  linear regression analysis technique with GPD as variable has been used for the future forecasting.**

- Different Statistical Constants
- LOG Equation(GDP,Population)
- Dependent Variable: LOG(SALES)
- Method: Least Squares
- Date: 01/07/04   Time: 15:13
- Sample: 1994 2003
- Included observations: 10
- Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error   	**t-Statistic**	       Prob.
- C                      	-16.96039                       5.710809                -2.969875       0.0208
- LOG(GDP)           1.671467	                   2.182731	                0.765769	  0.4688
- LOG(Population)**	****0.334616**	                   7.756513	                0.043140	 0.9668
- R-squared	     0.992717                 Mean dependent var		9.116009
- Adjusted R-squared 0.990637	  S.D. dependent var		0.265064
- S.E. of regression	  0.025649	                   Akaike info criterion		-4.245318
- Sum squared resid  0.004605	                  Schwarz criterion	                  -4.154542
- Log likelihood	  24.22659	                     F-statistic	                  477.0963
- Durbin-Watson stat 1.426180	    Prob(F-statistic)		0.000000

## Different Statistical Constants

- Linear Equation (GDP,Population)
**Dependent Variable: SALES****	****	****	****	**
**Method: Least Squares****	****	****	****	****	**
**Date: 01/07/04   Time: 16:59****	****	****	****	****	**
**Sample: 1994 2003****	****	****	****	****	**
**Included observations: 10**
**Variable****	****Coefficient****	****Std. Error****	****t-Statistic****	****Prob**.
- C	50592.40	24744.78	2.044568	0.0802
- GDP	0.017259	0.004245	4.065607	0.0048
- POPULATION  **-634.1910**  270.7675	-2.342198	0.0517
- R-squared     	0.992263	    Mean dependent var		9393.852
- Adjusted R-squared	0.990052	    S.D. dependent var		2519.246
- S.E. of regression	251.2708	    Akaike info criterion		14.13426
- Sum squared resid	441959.0	    Schwarz criterion		14.22504
- Log likelihood	-67.67132	    F-statistic		448.8448
- Durbin-Watson stat	2.496830	    Prob(F-statistic)		0.000000

##                         GDP            Population                   Sales
GDP                     1                0.998327                  0.993075	
Population          0.998327	    1	                    0.986910	
Sales    	   0.993075	  0.986910	              1   	

- GDP                     1                0.998327                  0.993075
- Population          0.998327	    1	                    0.986910
- Sales    	   0.993075	  0.986910	              1

**Correlation Matrix****GDP & Population **

## Actual Fitted Residual Graph considering both GDP& population

## Different Statistical ConstantsLinear Equation (GDP)

**Dependent Variable: SALES****	****	****	****	****	**
**Method: Least Squares****	****	****	****	****	**
**Date: 01/07/04   Time: 17:14****	****	****	****	****	**
**Sample: 1994 2003****	****	****	****	****	**
**Included observations: 10**
**	****	**
**Variable****	****Coefficient****	****Std. Error      t-Statistic   ****	****Prob**.
- C	               -7349.616	                707.2911	  -10.39122	0.0000
- GDP                   0.007333	                0.000307  	   23.90932	0.0000
- R-squared          0.986199	                 Mean dependent var		9393.852
- Adjusted R-squared 0.984474	S.D. dependent var		2519.246
- S.E. of regression	     313.9112	Akaike info criterion		14.51295
- Sum squared resid    788321.7                Schwarz criterion		14.57347
- Log likelihood      -70.56477                  F-statistic	                  	571.6556
- Durbin-Watson stat0.884361	               Prob(F-statistic)		0.000000

## Actual Fitted Residual Graph considering only GDP as variable

## Consumption forecast upto 2012

## Slide 15

## Sales & Generation Demand Forecast upto 2012

| Year | Sales (MKWH) | Net Gen (MKWh) | Net Demand(MW) | Comments |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1996 | 7454.04 | 10832.88 | 1994.56 | 

Actual
 |
| 1997 | 7821.66 | 11242.94 | 2070.07 |  |
| 1998 | 8382.44 | 12194.18 | 2245.21 |  |
| 1999 | 9421.27 | 13638.51 | 2511.14 |  |
| 2000 | 10082.79 | 14739.10 | 2713.78 |  |
| 2001 | 11408.91 | 16254.20 | 2992.75 |  |
| 2002 | 12566.00 | 17444.82 | 3211.96 |  |
| 2003 | 13716.98 | 18422.05 | 3391.89 |  |
| 2004 | 14829.18 | 19512.08 | 3592.59 | 

Forecast
 |
| 2005 | 16436.03 | 21345.49 | 3930.16 |  |
| 2006 | 18217.00 | 23355.13 | 4300.18 |  |
| 2007 | 20190.96 | 25558.18 | 4705.807 |  |
| 2008 | 22378.81 | 27973.51 | 5150.522 |  |
| 2009 | 24803.73 | 30248.45 | 5569.386 |  |
| 2010 | 27491.41 | 33526.11 | 6172.873 |  |
| 2011 | 30470.31 | 37158.91 | 6841.75 |  |
| 2012 | 33772.01 | 41185.38 | 7583.11 |  |

## Summary & conclusion

- The sales over the next 9 years will be increased to 33,772 GWh from 13,717 GWh in 2003. This is about 10.5 % average increase over the next 9 years.
- The corresponding demand at net generation would be about 7,583 MW compared to 3,392 MW in 2003.
- This may be the reference case. Another case with 6% GDP growth rate may found out & considered as High case. A lower case may also be found out with 4% GDP growth rate.

## Thank you all