# Presentation: 455417

## THORPEX TIGGE – GIFS AND NAEFSMay 22 2006THORPEX NA Regional Committee meeting3rd NAEFS WorkshopMontreal, May 2006 Philippe Bougeault and Zoltan Toth Acknowledgements: L. Wilson & L. Lefaivre  

## OUTLINE

- GIFS WG goals – Z. T.
- TIGGE Overview – P. B.
- Link with NAEFS – Z. T.
- Background
- First NAEFS operational implementation – Z. T.
- Technical details about TIGGE – P. B.

## Develop, test, and prepare for implementation operationally viable & sustainable methods based on THORPEX science results
ASSUMPTION
Basic research done in four science WGs
ACTIVITIES
Develop methods suitable for operational use
Capitalize on special capacity at NWP / NMS operational centers
10x10 MUMMA ensemble project?
Integrate new elements info forecast subsystems
Test candidate sub-systems prior to considering operational implementation
Simulated environment
OSSE
Real life tests - TOSTs, Regional Campaigns, Demo Projects
OSE, DA, NWP, SEA 
Transition new methods to operational use
Integrate new components into operational environment
Pre-implementation testing
Global Campaign
Prepare for operational implementation
PLATFORM
No new “super-center” foreseen
Leverage off existing operational NWP & NMS centers
All activities to be supported/sustained by existing centers
Engage/empower existing centers in new level of international collaboration
GIFS WG membership
NWP, NMS centers and CBS (incl. Ensemble  Expert Team) must be well represented 
Clear separation of research vs. operational activities – funding issues

**ASSUMPTION**
- Basic research done in four science WGs
**ACTIVITIES**
- Develop methods suitable for operational use
- Capitalize on special capacity at NWP / NMS operational centers
***10x10 MUMMA ensemble project?***
- Integrate new elements info forecast subsystems
- Test candidate sub-systems prior to considering operational implementation
- Simulated environment
***OSSE***
- Real life tests - TOSTs, Regional Campaigns, Demo Projects
- OSE, DA, NWP, SEA
- Transition new methods to operational use
- Integrate new components into operational environment
- Pre-implementation testing
- Global Campaign
- Prepare for operational implementation
**PLATFORM**
- No new “super-center” foreseen
- Leverage off existing operational NWP & NMS centers
- All activities to be supported/sustained by existing centers
- Engage/empower existing centers in new level of international collaboration
- GIFS WG membership
- NWP, NMS centers and CBS (incl. Ensemble  Expert Team) must be well represented
- Clear separation of research vs. operational activities – funding issues

**GIFS WG GOALS**

## Develop procedures for adaptive use of observing system, DA, NWP forecasting, and socio-economic applications on daily basis
Adaptive use of observing system
Determine optimal arrangement for adaptively configurable part of observing system
Coordinate use of DA & NWP resources
Assign tasks to NWP centers to carry out
Special procedures at high resolution etc for selected cases of high-impact weather forecast 
Automated warning system for high impact weather
Identify threat of high impact weather
Assure equitable use of adaptively configurable resources based on threat and need

Ensemble archive and data access - TIGGE
Phase 1 – 2005-2007
Centrally maintained  archive for ensemble research
Use single-center and NAEFS ensemble data for real-time access for demo projects 
No need to rush in temporary real-time data access solutions
Develop ensemble post-processing & interrogation tools/software for phase 2
Phase 2 – 2009-20014
Distributed archive 
 Decentralized data access
Both real-time and research
Use jointly developed web-based post-processing & interrogation tools
NCEP comments
NOAA: Archive at NCDC / NCAR; GRIB2 issues; Oper. Data format; Data push or pull? NOMADS

- Adaptive use of observing system
- Determine optimal arrangement for adaptively configurable part of observing system
- Coordinate use of DA & NWP resources
- Assign tasks to NWP centers to carry out
- Special procedures at high resolution etc for selected cases of high-impact weather forecast
- Automated warning system for high impact weather
- Identify threat of high impact weather
- Assure equitable use of adaptively configurable resources based on threat and need
- Ensemble archive and data access - TIGGE
- Phase 1 – 2005-2007
- Centrally maintained  archive for ensemble research
- Use single-center and NAEFS ensemble data for real-time access for demo projects
- No need to rush in temporary real-time data access solutions
- Develop ensemble post-processing & interrogation tools/software for phase 2
- Phase 2 – 2009-20014
- Distributed archive
-  Decentralized data access
- Both real-time and research
- Use jointly developed web-based post-processing & interrogation tools
- NCEP comments
- NOAA: Archive at NCDC / NCAR; GRIB2 issues; Oper. Data format; Data push or pull? NOMADS

**GIFS WG TASKS**

## THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL FLOWCHART

- System

- Data Assim. &
- Obs. Strateg.

- Predict-
- ability

- Socio-Econ.
- Applications

- Global Interactive
- Forecast System

*Core Research*

*Deliverable*

**THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL FLOWCHART**

## THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL FLOWCHART

- System

- Data Assim. &
- Obs. Strateg.

- Predict-
- ability

- Socio-Econ.
- Applications

- Global Interactive
- Forecast System

*Core Research*

*Deliverable*

*Support*

- Data Management and Policy

- TIGGE
- Data Base

*Facilitates*
*Res. & Demo*

**THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL FLOWCHART**

## TIGGE Objectives

- Facilitate all aspects of predictability research by creating a permanent and easily accessible archive of ensemble forecasts (=>support the science of DAOS and PDP)
- Explore the added-value of multi-model ensembles for forecasts of high-impact weather 1 to 15 days ahead (=>support the science of SERA)
- Enable a quick transition to an operational multi-model system in case sufficient added-value is proven (=>prepare the GIFS)
- Harmonize as much as possible with TFSP current efforts towards multi-model seasonal forecasts

## TIGGE development in two phases

***Phase-1***:  data collected in near-real time (via internet ftp) at a small number of central TIGGE data archives. This can be implemented now at little cost and could handle the estimated 200 GB per day data volumes with current network and storage capabilities
***Phase-2***: data archives distributed over a number of repositories, instead of all being held centrally, but efficient and transparent access to users will be maintained. This is a more flexible solution with the potential to eliminate routine transfers of large data volumes. But this will require substantial software development, in coordination with the WMO Information System, and will require additional funding

## TIGGE Achievements

- Defined and agreed the concept of a common database for global operational ensemble forecasts, which will become a large research infrastructure (S+T)
- Agreed the content (S), the standardized formats, the architecture and the data access policy (T)
- Finalized technical tests of data exchange (T)
- Explored a number of options for extension of the database content in the future (S)
- Established initial contacts with TFSP and strong relations with NAEFS (S)
- Now seeking formal commitments from 10 data providers (all the NWP centres running ensemble forecasts) and 3 archive and distribution centres (T)

## TIGGE Priorities for the coming year

- Start accumulating data (summer) (T)
- Start distributing data to scientists (autumn) (T)
- Advertise the effort and the scientific opportunities offered by TIGGE in a widely read journal (S)
- Secure funding for Phase 2 (developing a sustainable, distributed archive and distribution system) (S+T)
- Set up a sub-group to standardize the contents and formats of necessary initial and boundary data to enable forcing of any LAM-EPS by any Global EPS (S+T)
- Assess scientific issues of LAM-EPS (S, needs work from other THORPEX WGs)
- Determine the extent of TIGGE support for the upcoming demonstration projects  (T)
- Share technicalities of data exchanges with TFSP (T)

## TIGGE-GIFS Longer term objectives

- Agree formats and content for TIGGE-LAM (2007)(S)
- Agree common verification methods (S)
- Organize TIGGE Users Workshop (end 2007 or 2008, with SERA) (S)
- Develop and implement the concept of a point-to-point exchange of initial and boundary conditions for LAM-EPS (2008) (T)
- Technical transition to Phase 2 distributed data access, fully compatible with the WIS (2009) (T)
- Scientific evaluation of added-value of multi-model global medium-range forecasts (2009) (S)
- Subject to positive evaluation, transition to operational global multi-model system (2009) (T)
- Subject to positive evaluation, transition to operational global+regional multi-model system (2011) (S+T)

##     THORPEX GOAL	
Accelerate improvements in skill & utility of high impact forecasts
All improvements related to advances in NWP skill
We must accelerate improvements in NWP skill
Maintain/improve application procedures

**IMPROVEMENT IN PROBABILISTIC SKILL OVER PAST 4 YEARS**

**    ****THORPEX GOAL**
- Accelerate improvements in skill & utility of high impact forecasts
- All improvements related to advances in NWP skill
- We must accelerate improvements in NWP skill
- Maintain/improve application procedures

**NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE**
**FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)**

- Operational multi-center ensemble system
**Significant acceleration** in skill
- Joint ensemble research
- More achieved in one implementation than in previous 4 yrs
*Implementations at participating centers have immediate impact for all participants*
- Shortcutting the typical 2-3 year development path that takes to adapt changes internally

- 1.5-day extension of skill in 4 yrs

- Close to 2-day extension of skill with first NAEFS implementation

- THORPEX – NAEFS
- TO DOUBLE RATE OF IMPROVEMENT

***1***

***2***

***3***

***4***

## Discussions with other centers on expansion of NAEFS
Plans under development for FNMOC to join by 2008
Experimental data exchange with UKMet  & JMA (under TIGGE)
UKMet to decide whether to join by 2008
Other centers that expressed interest in learning more about NAEFS
ECMWF, NCMRWF, CMA
Issues
Name change from NAEFS to Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)?
Disc space requirements will grow

Link with THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
THORPEX research organized in 4 science Working Groups
TIGGE data base supports ensemble-related research
NAEFS – GEPS provides 
Testing in and transition to operational use
Real time forecast data for demonstration projects

- Plans under development for FNMOC to join by 2008
- Experimental data exchange with UKMet  & JMA (under TIGGE)
- UKMet to decide whether to join by 2008
- Other centers that expressed interest in learning more about NAEFS
- ECMWF, NCMRWF, CMA
- Issues
- Name change from NAEFS to Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)?
*Disc space requirements will grow*
- Link with THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)
- THORPEX research organized in 4 science Working Groups
- TIGGE data base supports ensemble-related research
- NAEFS – GEPS provides
- Testing in and transition to operational use
- Real time forecast data for demonstration projects

**EXPANSION OF NAEFS – LINK WITH GIFS**

## NAEFS & THORPEX

- Expands international collaboration
- Mexico joined in November 2004
- UK Met Office to join in 2006
- Provides framework for transitioning research into operations
- Prototype for ensemble component of THORPEX legacy forecst system:   		***Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)***

**THORPEX Interactive Grand**
**Global Ensemble (TIGGE)**

**North American Ensemble**
**Forecast System (NAEFS)**

*OPERATIONS*

*RESEARCH*

*Articulates*
*operational needs*

*Transfers*
*New methods*

- THORPEX

- RESEARCH

- LEGACY (GIFS)

- OPERATIONAL

## ENSEMBLE RESEARCH WITHIN THORPEX

- Goal of THORPEX: Accelerate improvements in utility of fcsts
- THORPEX research organized under 4 major areas- core WGs:
- Observing System
- Data Assimilation / Observing Strategies
- Predictability
- Socio-Economic Applications
- Which area offers greatest benefit?
- Resource allocation / priorities question
- Initially, *balanced funding of work in 4 WGs & areas underneath*
- Later, more selective funding to emphasize areas of greatest promise
- Ensemble-related research falls under:
- Data Assimilation -		Initial perturbations
- Predictability -			Model-related uncertainty
- Socio-Economic Applications -	Post-processing, applications
- Ensemble research should be integrated within 3 core WGs
- Puts ensemble work into context of overall THORPEX research
- Interaction with other related research
- Balanced approach / right priorities

## What can improve value of forecasts?
Improved quality of forecasts
More/better observations				25%
Adaptive observational methods		5%
Better assimilation of observations			25%
Ensemble-based DA methods		10%
Better numerical modeling				25%
Ensemble generation methods 		10%
Improved utilization of forecasts			25%
Single forecast, categorical form		12.5
Single forecast, probabilistic form		6%	
Single-center ensemble			4%		
Multi-center ensemble 			2.5%	

Overall THORPEX effort				100%
Ensemble-related efforts			25-30%?

Ensemble is delivery mechanism for THORPEX demo projects
BUT
GIFS WG should pursue comprehensive approach 
Address all four aspects of forecast process in balanced manner

- Improved quality of forecasts
- More/better observations				25%
*Adaptive observational methods**	**	**5%*
- Better assimilation of observations			25%
*Ensemble-based DA methods**	**	**10%*
- Better numerical modeling				25%
*Ensemble generation methods **	**	**10%*
- Improved utilization of forecasts			25%
- Single forecast, categorical form		12.5
- Single forecast, probabilistic form		6%
- Single-center ensemble			4%
*Multi-center ensemble **	**	**	**2.5%**	*
- Overall THORPEX effort				100%
*Ensemble-related efforts**	**	**	**25-30%?*
- Ensemble is delivery mechanism for THORPEX demo projects
***BUT***
- GIFS WG should pursue comprehensive approach
- Address all four aspects of forecast process in balanced manner

**ENSEMBLES IN THE CONTEXT OF THORPEX**

## Slide 17

## Slide 18

## EXAMPLE - THORPEX QUESTIONS:

*Why forecast signal is lost beyond 10-day lead time?*
- How can predictability be extended?
- Better/more observations?
- Better data assimilation scheme?
- Better numerical model?
- Better ensemble techniques?

**EXAMPLE - THORPEX QUESTIONS:**

***ANIMATION***

## BACKGROUND

## HURRICANE WILMA

**HURRICANE WILMA**
*STRIKE PROBABILITY*
*Probability of storm within 65 nm vicinity of any point on map*

* **Forecast track*
* **Observed track*

*Strike probability =>*

## International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products
Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA
 40+ members per cycle, 2 cycles per day from MSC & NWS
6-hourly output frequency (instead of current 12-hourly)
Replaces current 26 members once a day setup

Generates products for
Intermediate users
Weather forecasters at NCEP Service Centers (NWS)
Specialized users
E.g., hydrologic applications in all three countries
End users
E.g., forecasts for public distribution in Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM)

Prototype ensemble component of THORPEX Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
Operational outlet for THORPEX research using THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive

- Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA
-  40+ members per cycle, 2 cycles per day from MSC & NWS
- 6-hourly output frequency (instead of current 12-hourly)
- Replaces current 26 members once a day setup
- Generates products for
- Intermediate users
- Weather forecasters at NCEP Service Centers (NWS)
- Specialized users
- E.g., hydrologic applications in all three countries
- End users
- E.g., forecasts for public distribution in Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM)
- Prototype ensemble component of THORPEX Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
- Operational outlet for THORPEX research using THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive

**NORTH AMERICAN ****ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)**

## 500hPa height: 120 hours forecast (ini: 2006043000)

- Shaded:      left – raw bias                          right – bias after correction

## 2 meter temperature: 120 hours forecast (ini: 2006043000)

- Shaded:     left – raw bias                          right – bias after correction

## Bias Improvement (absolute value) after Bias correction

- Overall bias reduction:
- (globally)
- D0-3: 50+%
- D3-8: 40%
- D8-15: 30%

- _500hPa height_

- _850hPa temperature_

- _Sea level pressure_

- _2m Temperature_

- There is daily variation after bias correction, more bias reduced for valid 12Z cycle

## Bias Improvement (absolute value) after Bias correction

- Overall bias reduction for Northern Hemisphere

- _Bias – before/after bias correction_

## Bias Improvement (absolute value) after Bias correction

- Overall bias reduction:
- (Tropic)
- D0-3: 50%
- D3-8: 45%
- D8-15: 40%

- _10m V-component_

- _2m temperature_

- _Sea level pressure_

- _10m U-component_

## RPSS  before/after bias correction

- Close to 2-day extension of skill with first NAEFS implementation

- 1.5-day extension of skill in 4 yrs

- _RPSS improvement in 4 yrs_

- _NAEFS improvement_

## Slide 29

## NAEFS Performance Review

**KEY PERFORMANCE MEASURES**

** **
_** **_

**NAEFS Performance Review**

## TIGGE Data base content finalized

- Accumulation of all fluxes from start of forecast
- SST field will contain skin temperature for both sea and land
- Soil moisture field will contain value integrated on top 20 cm – reference values (min and max) will be given as supporting information only with the control

## CIN: retained, but only on a reasonable effort basis (later for most providers)
Additional fields (PDP request): 50hPa geopotential, Theta, u and v on PV=2 surface, PV on theta=330K or 320K surface (tbd by PDP)
600hPa level cancelled
TCW: vapor+liquid+solid
Exchange our CAPE algorithms
Collect information on all ensembles on Internet web page (coordination with ET-EPS)

- Additional fields (PDP request): 50hPa geopotential, Theta, u and v on PV=2 surface, PV on theta=330K or 320K surface (tbd by PDP)
- 600hPa level cancelled
- TCW: vapor+liquid+solid
- Exchange our CAPE algorithms
- Collect information on all ensembles on Internet web page (coordination with ET-EPS)

## Towards the GIFS

- Priority is to facilitate exchange of initial and boundary conditions between ALL global ensembles and ALL LAM ensembles
- Concept of data concentration (Phase 1) does not work for LAM component because of volume of data and real-time needs
- Prefer concept of Global model providers making global products available on their Internet Site for a limited duration + tools to prepare limited domain products on request + Internet site to transfer meta-data (ie, we anticipate on Phase 2)
- Urgency for BeiJing08 project

## Scientific issues

- Assess impacts of mismatch between the physical parameterizations of global and regional models
- Need to define bias corrections?
- Assess impacts of mismatch in horizontal resolution (when large)
- What is the best way of generating perturbations for LAM EPS?

## Technical Issues

- Will GRIB2 support the variety of projection and grid systems used by LAMs?
- High cost of maintenance of software to interpolate from any global grid to any LAM grid?  Is it preferable to have a common lat-lon intermediary?
- List all the necessary forcing fields and agree on units, etc..
- Agree content of a common database for Lam EPS outputs

## Way forward

- Gather material on the data exchanged on current projects (ie WRF, BeiJing08, MAP D-Phase) as a starting point
- Set up a TIGGE-LAM group composed of specialists and scientists involved in the demo projects, to discuss and agree the above issues.
- A leader for this group should be searched either in the WRF community of users or in Europe (?)
- Start discussions by email, then provoke a meeting in 2007
- Keep good liaison between GIFS-TIGGE WG and the new group

## Next events

- Deliver TIGGE presentations at the Landshut conference
- Organize an evening meeting of the GIFS-TIGGE WG at the Landshut conference
- Prepare a paper on TIGGE (for BAMS?) as soon as accumulation of data in data base has started (October 2006?)
- Next GIFS-TIGGE full session March 2007 (invitation in China)
- Organize a TIGGE user workshop end 2007 or 2008, venue and framework tbd