# Presentation: 244972

## The Role of Renewables in Regional Power Markets

***Pacific Northwest Perspectives, Outlook and Issues***** **
**Jeff King**
**Northwest Power Planning Council**
**Portland, Oregon**
**August 13-14, 2001**

## The Northwest power system: hydro base, later coal & nuclear; now gas; Next, wind

## Hydro provides 60% of energy (on average),Coal 21%, Gas 12% and increasing

## 20,000 aMW (175,000 GWh) load, growing slowly

## Winter-peaking Northwest loads complement summer-peaking Southwest loads

## Complementary loads have lead to strong interconnections North & South

## Implications of the Northwest’s hydropower system

**Provides 60% of electric energy on average.**
**Little ability to store energy from year-to-year:**
**30 - 40% of average runoff.**
**Significant year-to-year variation in energy availability:**
**+/- 4000 average megawatts on a 15,400 aMW average.**
**Used to plan for “Critical Hydro”, but now market-driven.**
**Hydro system is stressed to the max by competing uses in dry years:**
**Little ability to provide additional shaping or other services in dry years.**
**Some would like to see additional operational constraints and removal of some dams.**

- Bonneville

## 2001 is second worst water year of record

## Significant capacity development underway, mostly gas, some wind

## By mid-2003, new capacity is expected to restore acceptable system reliability

##   Thousands of MW In the pipeline, much of which will not be built

## Power prices are expected to moderate, then slowly rise, will track rest of WSCC

## Wind outlook

**Large Northwest wind potential (2000+ aMW),**
**Additional potential, but transmission-constrained.**
**Environmental issues (avian impacts, erosion, aesthetics, Native American cultural sites) can be resolved at many sites.**
**Wind has arrived:**
**One commercial project operating (Vansycle); one under construction (Stateline).**
**Two Wyoming projects (Foote Creek & Rock River) contracted to Northwest utilities.**
**Over 1200 MW of additional proposed projects:**
**Driven by recent high power prices, renewables incentives, public pressure, global climate change concerns.**
**How much will materialize?**
**Continued federal, state and local incentives are likely.**
** ****Softening gas and power prices.**
** ****Costly integration; can’t plan on hydro system for shaping in dry years. **

- Vansycle

##  Biomass outlook

**2 - 3 % of existing capacity (400 - 500 aMW).**
**Declining use of mill residue (declining industry, higher value uses).**
**Diverse niche opportunities:**
**Improved pulping chemical recovery boilers (260 aMW potential).**
**Public opposition to mass-burn MSW, but clean residues (300 aMW potential) could be used. **
**Continued development of landfill gas recovery (130 aMW).**
**Animal waste energy recovery currently being explored (80MW potential?)**
**Large forest thinning potential (700 aMW), but expensive and controversial.**
**Energy crops and dedicated biofuel production unlikely in foreseeable future - higher value alternative uses.**

- Coffin Butte

## Geothermal outlook

**Geothermal-electric projects being pursued at Glass Mountain, CA and Newberry Volcano, OR.**
**Prospects for electricity generation uncertain:**
**Estimated costs are high (5.0 c/kWh & up).**
**Formerly thought to have large potential (4000+ aMW), now less promising (340 - 3300 aMW).**
**Environmental concerns at many sites, but some have successfully been permitted.**
**Direct use more promising in near-term:**
**District heating and other applications in service with considerable additional potential. **
**Ground-coupled heat pumps (cold winter climates w/ summer air conditioning load).**

- Desert Peak

## Solar outlook

**Increasing distributed photovoltaic activity (e.g., Ashland, Orcas, Chelan, Hanford).**
**Central-station prospects not great:**
**Very expensive**
**Intermittent, remote**
**Large resource potential if costs can be reduced**
**But, why not build bulk generation in Southwest with superior resource and load coincidence?**
**Direct application may be a better near-term focus:**
**Architecture using daylighting.**
**Hot water heating, especially for large loads.**

- Emerald PUD HQ

## For more information...