# Presentation: 258100

-     Naomi Surgi

- NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center

**WHERE  AMERICA’S  CLIMATE  AND  WEATHER  SERVICES  BEGIN**

- Advanced Hurricane Modeling
- in NOAA:   The HWRF

**                         ****HWRF Program Leader **

**Notes:**
Some of the season highlights include
 12 tropical storms of which 8 became hurricanes
 5 major hurricanes, all Category 4...an all-time record
 5 year total of 41 hurricanes...an all-time record
 3 hurricanes (Bret, Floyd, Irene) and 2 tropical storms (Dennis and Harvey) made landfall in the mainland U.S.

**Final GFDL upgrades**
**Transition to the HWRF **
**T&E  **

## HWRF

**    ****02-03**                **03-04           05                06                     07**

-       **Mesoscale Data Assimilation for Hurricane Core**

**         ****Prelim. Testing grid, hurricane physics**

**HWRF**

**Final GFDL upgrades      **
**   **

**          ****TRANSITIONING TO HURRICANE WRF**

**Begin R&D**

**Continue     upgrades**

**T&E**

**Begin Physics upgrades**

** ****IOC**

**GFDL**

## Pre-Implementation Strategy for  HWRF

- <date/time>

_**Pre-Implementation Strategy for  HWRF**_
_**FOR THE HWRF IOI:  HWRF MUST PERFORM AT LEAST AS WELL AS THE GFDL MODEL**_
**  ****UPGRADE  GFDL SYSTEM **
**       ****resolution, atm. physics, air-sea physics, ocean, waves     **
**  ****TRANSITION GFDL UPGRADES TO HWRF**
**  ****PERFORM EXTENSIVE COMPARISONS BETWEEN GFDL AND HWRF FOR MULTIPLE SEASONS AND STORMS**

**Joint EMC/TPC T&E document now available**

## Proposed GFDL upgrades for ‘06

**  ****MICROPHYSICS **
**  ****IMPROVED AIR-SEA PHYSICS  **
**  ****BETTER POSITIONING OF THE LOOP CURRENT**** **
**  ****IMPROVED OCEAN INITIALIZATION**** **
**  ****COUPLING TO WAVES  (IN PROGRESS)  **

**Proposed GFDL upgrades for ‘06**

## 2006 UPGRADE SHOULD PROVIDE REDUCED ERRORS IN TRACK PREDICTION

##       2006 GFDL UPGRADES 

## Operational ’05 GFDL (green)  vs.  w/microphysics w/o ocean (red)     vs.  w/microphysics and ocean (blue)   

**Operational ’05 GFDL (green)  vs.  w/microphysics w/o ocean (red)     vs.  w/microphysics and ocean (blue)   **

## Transitioning to the HWRF system.....

## HWRF SYSTEM 

**High resolution **
**Coastal, Bay & **
**Estuarine **
**hydrodynamic model**

**Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer**

**HYCOM**
**3D ocean circulation**
**model**

**WAVEWATCH III**
**Spectral wave model**

**NOAH LSM**

**NOS**
**land and coastal waters**

**NCEP/****Environmental Modeling Center**
**Atmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land**

**runoff**

**fluxes**

- wave fluxes

-                    wave
-                  spectra

- winds
- air temp.

- SST
- currents

- elevations
-        currents
- 3D   salinities
-         temperatures

- other fluxes

**surge**
**inundation**

- radiative
- fluxes

**HWRF SYSTEM **

**NMM hurricane atmosphere**

## DEVELOPMENT OF THE  HWRF SYSTEM

- <date/time>

_**DEVELOPMENT OF THE  HWRF SYSTEM**_
**  ****Development of movable, 2- way nested grid   **
**  ****Development of Physics   **
**  ****Development of 3-D var and vortex initialization ** **
**  ****Development of HYCOM for HWRF configuration       **
**  ****Coupling to WAVEWATCH III  (+ multi-scale model) **
**   ****Coupling to LSM    **
**Development/Upgrade of hurricane verification system  (Intensity/structure, ppt)****    **
**(Coupling of HWRF with storm surge (EMC, NOS – Frank Aikman)      (2010?)**
** ****Development of HWRF ensembles  (near future)**

## ’05 Preliminary HWRF results  

**HWRF**** – ran 4X daily throughout ’05 hurricane season for all storms – system very stable and reliable **
**HYCOM testing/validation **

## HWRF

**HWRF**
**DENNIS**

## HYCOM TESTING 

**HYCOM TESTING **

## HURRICANE EMILY 

**HURRICANE EMILY **

## Hurricane 

**Hurricane **
**Katrina**

## HWRF 

**HWRF **
**Hurricane **
**Katrina**

## Slide 18

## HWRF 

**HWRF **
**Hurricane Wilma**

## Slide 20

## Slide 21

## For the ’06 hurricane season

**Pre-op implementation testing of the HWRF**
**       ****- Final transition of GFDL upgrades **
**       ****- Run HWRF - various configurations    **
**       ****- 3-D var data assimilation of doppler winds for   hurricane initialization   (will require tasking of P-3’s)**
**Begin HWRF T&E for ’06 and previous two seasons  for extensions comparisons with GFDL **
** **

## NOAA Aircraft in Hurricanes

**Need to develop op flight strategies for GIV and P-3’s**
**Two mission profiles:     Environment & core**
**Observations:                  Dropsonde, AXBT’s, Radar**
**P-3 op core mission in ’07;  GIV op core mission ’09**
**New NOAA paradigm:  proposed NWS requirement for operational status of P-3;  new mission for hurricane core winds   (GIV IOC for core in ’09)  **
**P-3 will be tasked this season to provide core obs for the HWRF 3-D var.   Also, AXBT deployments****              **

## HWRF and the community

**Current release HWRF w/movable, nested grid (2-way) **
**Updated physics**
**Future version:  coupled HWRF system to become available in autumn of ‘06   **

## Most important of all......

**EMC and TPC thank and congratulate the  GFDL group for their outstanding and pioneering contributions over this past decade towards advancing hurricanes forecasts by bringing the best of R&D hurricane modeling into operations **

**Bob Tuleya**

**Morris Bender**

**Tim Marchok**

## THANK YOU 

**FOR  YOUR**
**ATTENTION... **

##    Air sea fluxes:  wave drag,   enthalpy (sea spray)        

**    ****08                  09**                10                 11                     12

**  ****Implement    advance (reflectivity)       **
**  ****rad vel DA**

**Mesoscale Data**** ****Assimilation for Hurricane Core**

**  **

** **

**  **

**          ****Advancing  HURRICANE WRF System**

- Atm. Model  physics and resolution upgrades (continuous)

**   ****Air sea fluxes:  wave drag,   enthalpy (sea spray)        **
**     ****Microphysics **

**Incr. resolution**
**   ****(4km/>64L?)****   **

** **

**Waves:  moving nest     Multi-scale imp.                  Highest-Res coast                           Ocean:  4km.    - continuous upgrades in  ODAS,  model res. **

**A4DDA**

## Data Assimilation for Hurricane Vortex

- Create 3D data sets for outer nest and inner nest, as well as the boundary conditions for the outer nest from GFS 6h forecast fields
- Interpolate HWRF 6h forecast data onto the new HWRF grids in the overlap area to create the guess fields.
- Separate hurricane vortex from the guess fields.
- Correct the hurricane intensity before inserting the storm at the observed location (for both inner nest and outer nest)
- Run GDAS for both inner nest and outer nest
- Merge two data sets near the inner nest boundary

##           THE HURRICANE  WRF (HWRF) 

**          **_**THE HURRICANE  WRF (HWRF) **_
**                   **_**PREDICTION  SYSTEM**_
**  ****Will replace the GFDL in 2007**
**  ****Coupled air-sea-land prediction system**
**  ****Advanced data assimilation for hurricane vortex**
**  ****Advanced physics for high resolution**
**  ****Coupling with wave model**
**  ****Land surface coupled to hydrology/inundation **
**  ****Coupling with dynamic storm surge**

## Development of Collaborations

** ****HWRF WORKSHOP – JUNE 2002   (EMC)**
**   ****(45 attendees – estab. hurricane community)**
** ****1****st**** HWRF TUTORIAL –  Oct. 2004   (EMC)**
**   ****(26 attendees –  precocious hurr. modeling types)**
** ****AIR-SEA WORKSHOP – MAY 2005  (EMC)**
**    ****(35 attendees – introduction of ocean community)**
** ****WRF/NMM Tutorial – Sept 2005   (JMT/Boulder)**
**      ****the beginning of “formal” training  **

## Evaluation of HYCOM

**HYCOM configured for Atlantic (same as POM)**
**1/6 degree;  same forcing**
**Initialization of Gulf Stream and loop current**
**Ongoing verification**
**Experiments with Dennis, Katrina storm surge**