# Presentation: 924533

## The Outlook for Energy and

**Administrator**
**Energy Information Administration**

**Natural Gas Roundtable**
**Washington, DC**
**March 18, 2008**

***The Outlook for Energy and***
***Natural Gas Markets***

## Annual Energy Outlook 2008 reference case indicates that through 2030....

**Traditional fossil fuels are expected to continue to meet the bulk of energy requirements over the projection period**
**U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent**
**The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent**
**U.S. oil import dependence, measured as a share of U.S. oil use, is expected to decrease by 2030**
**U.S. natural gas use is projected to decline after 2016**
**Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports**
**Carbon dioxide emissions from energy are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent**

## World oil prices are expected to decline, then rise

**World oil prices are expected to decline, then rise**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**Reference**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

**2006 dollars per barrel**

## Liquid fuels continue to dominate primary energy consumption in the United States

**Liquid fuels continue to dominate primary energy consumption in the United States**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

- History

- Projections

**Liquid Fuels**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

**quadrillion Btu**

## Transportation is the largest end-use consuming sector, although the commercial sector has the fastest growth

**Transportation is the largest end-use consuming sector, although the commercial sector has the fastest growth**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**quadrillion Btu**

## Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector declines after the next 10 years

**Transportation****

**Industrial***

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Electric Power**

- Projections

- History

- * Includes lease and plant fuel

- ** Includes pipeline fuel

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**trillion cubic feet**

## Dependence on natural gas net imports declines slightly

**16%**

**14%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2006 and 2030**
** ****(trillion cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

- History

- Projections

**trillion cubic feet**

## Unconventional natural gas production will account for nearly half of domestic supply

**Alaska**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Lower 48 ****Non-Associated**** Offshore**

**Lower 48 Associated-Dissolved**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated**
**Conventional Onshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**trillion cubic feet**

## The major sources of incremental U.S. natural gas supply will be unconventional gas, Alaska, and LNG

**Growth in Alaskan Production**

**Growth in**
**Non-Associated**
**Unconventional**

**Growth in LNG Imports**

**Base Production (all sources)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**trillion cubic feet**

## Tight sands formations will dominate unconventional gas production, but shales grow rapidly

**Tight Sands**

**Coalbed Methane**

**Gas Shales**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**trillion cubic feet**

## Net pipeline imports fall as supplies from Canada decline and exports to Mexico increase; LNG imports grow rapidly

**Overseas LNG**

**Mexico**

**Canada**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**trillion cubic feet**

## LNG imports from new terminals will soon outpace imports from existing terminals

- History

- Projections

**New Terminals**

**Existing Terminals**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**trillion cubic feet**

## Natural gas wellhead prices will decline before rising again

**Natural gas wellhead prices will decline before rising again**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

- History

- Projections

**2006 dollars per thousand cubic feet**

## U.S. electricity demand growth has been trending downward

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

- History

- Projections

**U.S. electricity demand growth has been trending downward**

|  | Annual Growth |
| --- | --- |
| 1950s | 9.0% |
| 1960s | 7.3% |
| 1970s | 4.2% |
| 1980s | 3.1% |
| 1990s | 2.4% |
| 2000-2005 | 1.2% |
| 2005-2030 | 1.1% |

## Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation

**Petroleum**

**Renewables**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

- History

- Projections

**billion kilowatthours**

## Coal and renewables gain larger shares of electricity generation, but nuclear generation also increases

**  ****-  percent of total**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**billion kilowatthours**

## Most generation capacity additions are coal in the later years of the projection

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**Nuclear**

**gigawatts**

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2008*****, March 2008, full report, April 2008**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2007*****, May 2007, next update June 2008**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**