# Presentation: 223682

## Screening Development Projects for Risks from Climate Change

- Ian Noble
- The World Bank

## The “conventional” view of adaptation

- Adaptation to CC is an additional cost to developing countries and thus should be funded by those responsible
- There is a high degree of uncertainty in climate projections
- Form collaborative links with international organisations
- Improve our projections of climate change
- Identify hot spots
- Understand traditional coping strategies
- Build capacity in all sectors
- Mainstream adaptation into the development process

## Current Adaptation ProjectsUsual Outcome

**Assess literature**
**Assess current and future vulnerability **
**Increase local forecasting capacity (downscaling)**
**Assess institutional structures**
- Develop adaptation options
- Costing and prioritizing
- Implement priorities
- Monitor and assess outcomes
- Compare lessons learnt

## A restated message

- Based on these major points
- Urgency - climate change is occurring now
- Climate variability and change is currently a threat to development.
- Start by dealing with capacity to cope with current climate variability
- We know enough about the nature of climate change to take sensible decisions about adaptation now
- Can we assess (do we need to) the costs of adaptation?

## We can act now

- We will never be able to predict climate with the precision that we would like
- But, we already know enough about the core climate trends to make sensible decisions about adaptive measures
- Most actions have to start with current coping (in)capacities with current climate variability

## ADAPTA Screening & Design Tool for adapting projects to climate change

**Notes:**
Background – This is a WB project focusing on WB projects, but it is in fact flexible enough to be applied by other project implementers and those who might be affected by projects.

Many project managers want to take adaptation into account, but most of the advice to now has suggested start with downscaled models, huge meteorological data sets etc.  Task is too daunting.  We are trying to simplify the first contact and make further actions relating to adaptation much smoother.

Note important goal of raising profile of adaptation issues.  It is as much about getting project managers to think about adaptation as providing them with some first tools.

## Goals

- Raise profile of adaptation to climate change in project planning
- Screening - Identify the level of risk in a project
- Simple five level classification
- Design - Guide to options to minimise risk where necessary, based on ...
- Past experience within World Bank and other relevant agencies: national and multinational
- Recent research results

**Notes:**
Background – This is a WB project focusing on WB projects, but it is in fact flexible enough to be applied by other project implementers and those who might be affected by projects.

Many project managers want to take adaptation into account, but most of the advice to now has suggested start with downscaled models, huge meteorological data sets etc.  Task is too daunting.  We are trying to simplify the first contact and make further actions relating to adaptation much smoother.

Note important goal of raising profile of adaptation issues.  It is as much about getting project managers to think about adaptation as providing them with some first tools.

## Screening & design tool 

- Target: Project developers (national, bilateral and multilateral) and assessors; NGOs
- Increase awareness of the issue
- Provide a first (quick) check of potential issues (by region & sector)

- Levels of advice provided
- Red flag – adaptation issues are important and must taken into account
- Yellow flag – some concerns, that should be checked
- Orange – Not enough known to assess
- Green flag – No adaptation issues foreseen
- Blue flag – Positive action for adaptation

## A framework for a screening & design  tool

**What do project managers need?**

**Notes:**
You need to run through this a few times to get the flow

## A framework for a screening & design  tool

**Good Practice Interpretation**

**Bring together the expanding database of information**

**Notes:**
Empahsise that project managers really need to get access to the best advice available.  This is the bulk of the project.  That is, pulling literature, previous project experience etc together.

## A framework for a screening & design  tool

**Provide a screening tool to guide user to appropriate material**

**Notes:**
We break each project down into a series of Activities – these are actions (eg building things, changing crops, changing institutions etc) that we assess to be sensitive to CC.  This is a core part of the design challenge.
Then we ask, how sensitive are these activities to (eg) a high increase, moderate increase, no change, mod decrease or significant decrease in each of a small number of climate parameters.  This is expert assessment.  Some will be based on past experience, some on modelling, some is best-guess.
We will select a small number of CC parameters (6 to 8 ideally).  We will then develop a composite map of each (global and local resolution).  It will include best projections and current trends.
From this we can develop the sensitivity of each activity to the changes expected at the project locality.

BUT – the users do not see all this

## A framework for a screening & design  tool

**Based on best expert advice?**

## A framework for a screening & design  tool

**What does the user see?**

- A series of questions about their project

**Notes:**
The user is seeking information on climate sensitivity and further information sources

User sees some simple questions and then an assessment of risks and guidance to appropriate resources.

## Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change TACC

## Help about the question and about each option

- Ability to change ones mind

## Users are asked to identify the location of their project.  

- Users are asked to identify the location of their project.
- This can either be via lat-long coordinates or pointing to a map

- The underlying climate change data base will be based on expert assessment of the various models and of recent trends.
- A composite map representing climate change for each variable over the next 20 to 30 years will be prepared.

## Slide 17

## Printed summary

## Slide 19

**Notes:**
The whole tool is implemented in Excel.  The questions (an “expert system”) are set up in a spreadsheet as shown.  Adaptation experts can readily modify the questions to extend the scope or make it more appropriate to their area.

## The tool is being designed and implemented initially in Excel.

- It has a number of tools to help users to expand or modify the knowledge base.
- Later it will be converted to a web-based script.
- The tool and many of the documents will fit on a CD

**Notes:**
As the questions are built up, a tree showing the links between the questions is also formed to help the coder track what they are doing.  Users see none of this.

## Users can add to the document data base if they wish

- Each document has a brief summary describing its relevance

**Notes:**
This is an example of a document description – not a real reference.

The project outcomes are what we use to link the document to the risk assessment

## Integrated Modeling System – GUI

**Integrated Modeling System – GUI**

## Contact : inoble@worldbank.orgfiqbal1@worldbank.org

- Working in cooperation with several other agencies and NGOs.
- The tool and data-base will be available for unrestricted distribution
- Nine other agencies have expressed interest in using or cooperating in designing the tool

**Notes:**
The groups that are cooperating include  DFID, USAID, GEF, IUCN, IISD, SEI, PIK, Red Cross and possibly the Danish.  None of these cooperations are formal as yet so I will not put them on a slide, but you can talk about them.

## Slide 24

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