# Presentation: 728012

## 30th Annual Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Workshop:            Opening Remarks

*“**Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”*

- The Pennsylvania State University
- October 24, 2005

- Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
- Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

## Overview

- Linking the Climate Test Bed (CTB) to:
- Other NOAA components
- Transition process from research to operations
- Relationship of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to the CTB
- Status of computer support

## The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

**Research, Development and Technology Infusion**

**Respond &**** Feedback**

**IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center**

***Feedback***

**Distribute**

**Process**

**Observe**

**Products & Forecast Services**

**To Serve Diverse **
**Customer Base **
**e.g., National Association of **
**State Energy Officials,**
**Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, ...**

## Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

- R&D

- N
- C
- E
- P

- Operations
- User Community

- Transition from
- research
- to
- operations/
- applications

- Large “volume” of R&D,
- 	funded through AOs,
- 	Agency Labs...
- Smaller set of R&D
- 	products suitable for
- 	operations.
- Systematic transition steps.
- New products can serve
- 	diverse and expanding
- 	user community.
- Delivery to diverse USER
- 	community

**Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process**

**1**

**2**

**3**

**4**

- NCEP
- is uniquely
- positioned
- to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition  process

**5**

## Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

- R&D

- N
- C
- E
- P

- Operations
- User Community

- Transition from
- research
- to
- operations/
- applications

- Large “volume” of R&D,
- 	funded through AOs,
- 	Agency Labs...
- Smaller set of R&D
- 	products suitable for
- 	operations.
- Systematic transition steps.
- New products can serve
- 	diverse and expanding
- 	user community.
- Delivery to diverse USER
- 	community

**Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process**

**1**

**2**

**3**

**4**

- NCEP
- is uniquely
- positioned
- to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition  process

**5**

- CFS

- OGP

- CPC

- CTB

## NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process

**EMC**

**NCO**

**R&D**

**Operations**

**Delivery**

**Criteria**

**Transition from Research to Operations**

**Requirements**

**EMC**

**NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process**

- OPS

**Life cycle**
**Support**

**Service Centers**

**  ****NOAA**
**Research**

**Concept of Operations**

**Service**
**Centers**

**Test Beds**
**JCSDA**
**CTB**
**WRF DTC**
**JHT**

**User**

**Observation**
**   ****System**

**Launch List – Model Implementation Process**

**Field**
**Offices**

**Effort**

*EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations*

**Other Agencies**
**&**
**International**

**Forecast benefits,   Efficiency,   IT Compatibility,   Sustainability**

## Climate Forecast System Status

- Components
- Atmosphere: GFS(2003) T62/L64
- Ocean:  MOM3 GFDL Ocean Model
- Coupled once/day
- Run 2X Day out to 9 months
- The website for real time data retrieval is at: _[ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst/](ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst/)_
- The climatological data is at:  _[ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/](ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.clim/)_
- Complete documentation available at:  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/cfs_data/cfs_data.pdf

## Computer Support

- CFS Seasonal Operational Runs - ~10% of operational machine
- Computational support for monthly forecast is in place ~ 10% of                                                   operational machine
- Support for Climate                                                 Test Bed
- Computational                                                              support being applied                                                                to approved projects                                                          (1/3 of “research”                                                                    computer)

## Issues/Challenges/Highlights

- Balances between external and transitional work
- Reanalysis support
- Multi-model Ensemble and related                                   application
- NCEP, NESDIS, ARL will move into the NOAA Center for                                                           Weather and                                                  Climate                                                          Prediction in                                                      early 2008