# Presentation: 057595

## Rural Energy Demand Estimation

- Zia Haq
- Energy Information Administration
- South Asia Regional Initiative – Energy Workshop
- Pokhara, Nepal
- January 2004

## Rural Energy Demand is More Than Lights and TV

- Residential energy demand
- Appliances (lights, fans, TV, radio-cassette)
- Space heating
- Hot water
- Refrigeration and space cooling
- Cooking
- Commercial demand (markets)
- Appliances
- Cooking (heat and steam)
- Water pumps for irrigation
- Industrial demand
- Brick kilns, rice mills, flour mills, oil mills
- Other energy consumption categories to consider: personal transportation, communication, goods transportation, food production

## Single Household Demand – Sri Lanka

| Appliance | Power rating (Watts) | Number | Use (hours/day) | Demand (Wh/day) | Demand (kWh/month) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Fluorescent lamp | 20 | 3 | 4 | 240 | 7.2 |
| Black and white television | 30 | 1 | 4 | 120 | 3.6 |
| Radio-cassette | 10 | 1 | 5 | 50 | 1.5 |
| Total energy required |  |  |  | 410 | 12.3 |
| Total with battery losses (x 1.25) |  |  |  | 512.5 | 15.4 |
| Maximum power demand | 100 |  |  |  |  |
| Average power demand (Wh/24) |  |  |  | 21.4 W |  |

- Source:  Smail Khennas, et. al., “Small Wind Systems for Rural Energy Services”, Table 3, 2003

-   Remarkably enough, consumption varies from 15 to 20 kWh/month/household across many countries of the world
-   This is equivalent to180 to 240 kWh/year/household
-   Assuming household size of 4 persons/household, this translates to 45 to 60 kWh/capita/year

**Notes:**
  Approximate figures derived from case studies
  This household can only use 12 Volt DC appliances
  Can be powered by used car batteries
  Consumption varies from 15 to 20 kWh/month/household (source: Dr. Dan Waddle, NRECA)

## Single Household Load Curve – Sri Lanka

**Power (Watts)**

**Time of day**

**Notes:**
  What are the uses of energy from 6:00 am to 5:00 pm?
  Are the evening uses lights and TV?

## Three Household Demand – Household 1 – Sri Lanka

| Appliance | Power rating (Watts) | Number | Use (hours/day) | Demand (Wh/day) | Demand (kWh/month) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Fluorescent lamp | 20 | 3 | 4 | 240 | 7.2 |
| Black and white television | 30 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0.9 |
| Radio-cassette | 10 | 2 | 5 | 100 | 3 |
| Total energy required |  |  |  | 370 | 11.1 |
| Total with battery losses (x 1.25) |  |  |  | 462.5 | 13.9 |
| Total with inverter (x 1.1) |  |  |  | 509 | 15.3 |
| Maximum power demand | 110 |  |  |  |  |
| Average power demand (Wh/24) |  |  |  | 21.2 W |  |

- Source:  Smail Khennas, et. al., “Small Wind Systems for Rural Energy Services”, Table 4, 2003

**Notes:**
  3 households sharing a generator
  These households prefer to use AC appliances and need an inverter for that

## Three Household Demand – Household 2 – Sri Lanka

| Appliance | Power rating (Watts) | Number | Use (hours/day) | Demand (Wh/day) | Demand (kWh/month) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Fluorescent lamp | 20 | 3 | 4 | 240 | 7.2 |
| Black and white television | 30 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0.9 |
| Radio-cassette | 10 | 2 | 5 | 100 | 3 |
| Butter churn (AC motor about 2 hrs/week) | 200 | 1 | 0.25 | 50 | 1.5 |
| Total energy required |  |  |  | 420 | 12.6 |
| Total with battery losses (x 1.25) |  |  |  | 525 | 15.8 |
| Total with inverter (x 1.1) |  |  |  | 577.5 | 17.3 |
| Maximum power demand | 310 |  |  |  |  |
| Average power demand (Wh/24) |  |  |  | 24.1 W |  |

- Source:  Smail Khennas, et. al., “Small Wind Systems for Rural Energy Services”, Table 4, 2003

**Notes:**
  3 households sharing a generator
  These households prefer to use AC appliances and need an inverter for that

## Three Household Demand – Household 3 – Sri Lanka

| Appliance | Power rating (Watts) | Number | Use (hours/day) | Demand (Wh/day) | Demand (kWh/month) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Fluorescent lamp | 20 | 3 | 4 | 240 | 7.2 |
| Radio-cassette | 10 | 1 | 5 | 50 | 1.5 |
| Total energy required |  |  |  | 290 | 8.7 |
| Total with battery losses (x 1.25) |  |  |  | 362.5 | 10.9 |
| Total with inverter (x 1.1) |  |  |  | 399 | 12 |
| Maximum power demand | 70 |  |  |  |  |
| Average power demand (Wh/24) |  |  |  | 16.6 W |  |

- Source:  Smail Khennas, et. al., “Small Wind Systems for Rural Energy Services”, Table 4, 2003

**Notes:**
  3 households sharing a generator
  These households prefer to use AC appliances and need an inverter for that

## Three Household Demand – Summary – Sri Lanka

- Source:  Smail Khennas, et. al., “Small Wind Systems for Rural Energy Services”, Table 5, 2003

|  | Household 1 | Household 2 | Household 3 | Total |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Monthly demand from batteries | 15.3 kWh | 17.3 kWh | 12 kWh | 44.6 kWh |
| Maximum power required | 110 W | 310 W | 70 W | 490 W |
| Average power required | 21.2 W | 24.1 W | 16.6 W | 62 W |

**Notes:**
  3 households sharing a generator
  These households prefer to use AC appliances and need an inverter for that

## Rural Electrification Board - Bangladesh

- REB works with Palli Bidyut Samity’s (PBS) to carry out rural electrification and grid extension
- Criteria for rural electrification
- Availability of funds
- A minimum of 22 residences per kilometer
- Single phase 11 kV or 6.35 kV distribution grid
- 2.5 kVA or 5 kVA distribution transformers
- 220 Volt service system
- Cost per connection approximately $420 (only for distribution system, does not include generation, transmission facilities,  service connections, or household wiring)
- Commercial and industrial users heavily subsidize residential customers
- Total distribution system losses 16%
- 1999 average bill collection rate 94%

**Notes:**
1. Source: Adriann Zomers, “Rural Electrification”, PhD Thesis, University of Twente, Twente University Press, 2001.

## Rural Electrification - Bangladesh

| Consumer category | Average consumption (kWh/year) | Maximum consumption (kWh/year) | Minimum consumption (kWh/year) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Residential | 330 | 456 | 234 |
| Commercial | 356 | 462 | 231 |
| Industrial | 14,666 | 39,959 | 5,659 |
| Irrigation | 4,801 | 8,260 | 680 |
| Street lights | 395 | 640 | 193 |

-   Average consumption for residential and commercial customers increases by 5% per year as the system matures
-   This is not only due to load growth but is due to the PBS’s accumulation of experience with providing electricity, bill collection, customer complaints

**Notes:**
  Average annual consumption per connection (e.g. per household for residential customers) among 10 PBS cooperatives with at least 5 years of experience.
  Industrial and irrigation (water pumping) customers form the bulk of the load.
  Source: Adriann Zomers, “Rural Electrification”, PhD Thesis, University of Twente, Twente University Press, 2001.

## Variation of Appliances with Income - India

|  | Number of apppliances per 100 households |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Appliances | Above poverty | Middle income | High income |
| Incandescent lights (60 Watts each) | 150 | 200 | 250 |
| Fluorescent lights (54 Watts each) | 50 | 200 | 350 |
| Fans (65 Watts each) | 50 | 150 | 180 |
| Television (80 Watts each) | 15 | 70 | 90 |
| Refrigerator (100 Watts each) | 0 | 5 | 28 |
| Other appliances | 0 | 4 | 20 |

- Below poverty level households do not have any appliances

**Notes:**
Source:  Rangan Banerjee, Rahul Pandey, Abhijit Bhure, and Sandeep Phulluke, “Electricity Demand Estimation for Village Electrification”
  Village in Bankura district.

## Commercial Demand and Water Pumps - India

- Shops have about 250 Watts of load, operated 5 hours/day, 30 days/month
- Estimated to be about 35 to 45 kWh/month/establishment
- A 3 horse-power pump, operating at 50% efficiency, for 1,000 hours/year will require 4,474 kWh/year of energy

**Notes:**
  Source: Dan Waddle, NRECA
  Rangan Banerjee, Rahul Pandey, Abhijit Bhure, and Sandeep Phulluke, “Electricity Demand Estimation for Village Electrification”

## Load Integration – India, Rajamele

- Loads have to be integrated to get the total village energy requirement
- Example, Rajamele village in West Bengal, India
- Population 1,526 in 1994, increasing at 1.1 percent per year, in an area of 348 hectares (437 persons/square km)
- Peak load in 2005 is estimated to be 58 kW, and an average demand of 18 kW, summer peaking, residential load is the highest

**Notes:**
  Rangan Banerjee, Rahul Pandey, Abhijit Bhure, and Sandeep Phulluke, “Electricity Demand Estimation for Village Electrification”

## Load Integration – India

- Survey in a village 12 km from Madurai conducted for 5 years from 1983 to 1988
- Electricity consumption 8,721 _+_ 1,428 kWh/month with the following break-down
- Machinery: 44.7%
- Residential: 24.2%
- Irrigation: 31.1%
- Thermal energy consumption 31.68 _+_ 8.15 million Btu/month with the following break-down
- Cooking: 58.3%
- Parboiling of rice: 28.3%
- Hot water for dairy: 7.8%
- Hot water for kitchen: 5.6%

**Notes:**
Source:  A. Sundaram, C. Balasundaram, and C.E. Sooriamoorthy, “Integrated Rural Energy System – A Case Study”.  Energy and Environment into the 1990s.  Proceedings of the 1st World Renewable Energy Congress, Edited by A. A. M. Sayigh, Pergamon Press, Volume 5, pp. 3178 – 3183, 1990.

## Integrated Village Load Curve - India

**Electricity Demand (kW)**

**Hour of Day**

**Notes:**
Source:  Rangan Banerjee, Rahul Pandey, Abhijit Bhure, and Sandeep Phulluke, “Electricity Demand Estimation for Village Electrification”
  Peak demand 58 kW, average demand 18 kW, residential demand dominant
  What is the demand from 11:00 pm to 6:00 am?

## Integrated Rural Energy Need - Africa

| Activity | Electricity needs (kWh/capita/year) | Energy needs (million Btu/capita/year) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Food production |  | 1.38 |
| Irrigation | 0.47 |  |
| Refrigeration | 32.8 |  |
| Household cooking, hot water, boiled water |  | 1.81 |
| Lighting | 9.4 |  |
| Local industry | 39 | 0.53 |
| Personal transportation |  | 0.19 |
| Goods transportation |  | 0.19 |
| Communication | 5.46 |  |
| Total | 87.13 | 4.10 |

- Source:  Kamaruddin Abdullah, “Energy Demand for Rural Development”, Proceedings of the Sixth AEESEAP Triennial Conference, Indonesia, August 2000

**Notes:**
The lighting requirement is based on one family of four requires one room, lit with one 20 Watt bulb, for 5 hours each night, for every night of the year.
  This lighting requirement is less than the Sri Lanka household lighting requirement shown earlier.  The Sri Lanka requirement for lighting was 7.2 kWh/month.  Assuming 4 persons per household, the Sri Lanka requirement translates into 21.6 kWh/capita/year.

## Characteristics of Rural Energy Demand - I

- Households are the major consumers of energy, their share of gross rural energy consumption averaging over 85%
- Most of this is consumed in the form of traditional energy sources used for cooking and heating, which constitutes 80 to 90% of the energy used by households.
- Agricultural activities consume from 2 to 8% of the total demand, mainly to power mechanical equipment and irrigation pumps.
- Commercial energy, mainly kerosene and electricity, is used for lighting, which on average constitutes about 2 to 10% of total rural consumption.
- Electricity demand curves in many rural areas are characterized by high peaks in the early evening hours and a low overall consumption, which means high investment in peak capacity installations and low returns.

## Characteristics of Rural Energy Demand - II

- The energy consumption of rural industries, including both cottage industries and village level enterprises, amounts to less than 10% of the rural aggregate in most countries
- Biomass (wood fuel) and agricultural residues constitute the principal sources of supply for these activities, with electricity sometimes providing some motive power
- Religious festivals, celebrations, burials and other occasional functions may also consume large amounts of fuel but be missed by energy consumption surveys
- In tropical Africa, the share contributed by biomass is 75% on average, with some countries such as Chad, Benin, Burkina Faso and Ethiopia reaching 90%
- In Asia and Latin America biomass provides 23% of the energy for tropical Asia and 13% for tropical Latin America and Caribbean

## Characteristics of Rural Energy Demand - III

- In the absence of reliable sectoral breakdowns in most countries, it is difficult to make a reasonable global estimate of the balance between traditional and commercial energy sources in the rural areas alone
- In most cases the rural sector will be the lowest consumers of modern energy sources
- In a few cases in Asia and Africa, the share of traditional fuels in rural household energy rises to more than 95%

## Rural Household Energy Demand - I

- Among poorest households cooking and space heating (depending on climate) can account for 90 – 100% of energy consumption
- Remainder of energy demand is for lighting
- At higher income levels better lighting is one of the first priorities (for education and extended working day)
- At highest rural income levels priorities are: water heating, refrigeration, and space cooling.  Need for space heating may decline as dwellings may be better constructed

## Rural Household Energy Demand - II

- Survey of six low-income villages of South India
- Space heating needs are negligible
- Little variation in end-use shares was found, with cooking between 76% and 81%, water heating 14 to 19%, and lighting by kerosene and some electricity between 2% and 3%
- Energy consumption for cooking in rural Indonesian households has been estimated to be 6.5 GJ/capita/year, or 0.88 cubic meters of fuel wood/capita/year

|  | Low income | Medium income | High income |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Cooking | 82.6 | 58.5 | 50.3 |
| Water heating | 2.0 | 9.1 | 34.0 |
| Space heating | 6.5 | 32.4 | 15.7 |
| Total | 11.5 | 10.2 | 8.3 |

**Energy Requirement for Cooking and Heating in Rural Mexico (GJ/capita/year)**

## Additional Considerations

- Alternative approach is to determine best energy resources and build as much as can be afforded – demand will follow
- Determine highest load densities – markets, irrigation pumps, clinics, rich households
- Maximize transmission and distribution efficiency through “mini-grids” – examples Nepal and India
- Examples of the cooperative model - Rural Electrification Board (REB) in Bangladesh
- Ownership leads to responsibility

## Success Stories in Meeting Rural Demand

- The entrepreneurial spirit of the private sector must be harnessed to provide electricity to rural areas
- The 1.5 person utility providing power in the bazaar
- The battery repairman – learning by reverse engineering
- Making money when the power goes out - growth of UPS, stand-by power, battery power, diesel generator-set markets
- Renewable energy through micro-credit – Grameen Shakti
- Common themes: least cost operations, private initiative, collective responsibility
- But there must also be appropriate government oversight, regulations, and checks and balances

## Mini-Grids

- Community owned electricity distribution systems supplied by distributed generators
- India
- Sundarband Islands, West Bengal
- 53 islands with 4 million people, no electricity
- Rural Energy Cooperative Society providing grid quality electricity
- 50 to 100 kW generators serving 1 to 2 villages of 400 to 500 households
- Ownership structure very important to payment stability
- 11 islands covered with photovoltaics, 2,000 consumers
- Nepal
- Nepal Electricity Authority
- Reduced maintenance costs, reduction in power theft