# Presentation: 271246

## Building On Success

- James R. Mahoney, Ph.D.
- Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere
- March 7, 2005

**Notes:**
Commend all groups (research community, front line forecasters, first responders, citizens of Florida) for their preparedness, response, and recovery efforts during the 2004 Hurricane Season.

I would like to specifically commend NOAA, DOD/Air Force, State and Local Emergency Managers and FEMA for their work.

I would also like to acknowledge those counties that are still heavily in the recovering phase to this day.

The Nation’s Hurricane Program did well this season, but we still have a ways to go.

##    Presidential Recognition

-    Presidential Recognition

- September 8th, 2004

- Senate Congressional Resolution 149 and Two House Congressional Resolutions 488/784 recognized NOAA’s efforts

**Notes:**
NHC received high-level visibility and praise for their work during the 2004 season.

Senate Congressional Resolution 149 passed on November 18th.
House Congressional Resolution 784 was dated September 28th – unknown when it passed.
House Congressional Resolution 488 on September 22nd.

## Commerce Secretary Recognition

**Notes:**
Secretary Gutierrez visited NHC only 18 days after being sworn in (Feb 7, 2005).  
Two visits from Secretaries of Commerce within 5 months. 

DOC Secretary Don Evans flew on the G-4 on September 16, 2004.
DOC Secretary Carlos Gutierrez visited the National Hurricane Center on February 25, 2005.

## The 2004 Hurricanes

**Notes:**
	The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was among the most devastating on record.  This year’s storms claimed over 3100 lives, the second largest toll in three decades; 60 of these occurred in the United States.  The United States suffered a record $45 billion in property damage, enduring landfalls from five hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan, and Jeanne), and the eyewall passage of a sixth (Alex) that avoided landfall on the North Carolina Outer Banks by 10 miles.  In addition, Bonnie, Hermine, and Matthew made landfall in the United States as tropical storms.  Florida, the “sunshine state”, became known as the plywood state after being battered by Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.  The islands of the Caribbean were also hard hit.  Charley struck Cuba as a major hurricane (winds of 111 m.p.h. or greater – category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale).  Ivan was also a major hurricane in the Caribbean, causing extensive destruction on Grenada, Jamaica, and Grand Cayman, while Jeanne produced catastrophic flash floods in Haiti that killed thousands and left hundreds of thousands homeless.
	Fifteen named storms developed in 2004, including Nicole, a subtropical storm.  Nine of the named systems became hurricanes and, of these, six became major hurricanes.  One additional tropical depression did not reach storm strength.  These totals are considerably above the long-term (1944-2003) means of 10.2 named storms, 6.0 hurricanes, and 2.6 major hurricanes.  August alone saw the formation of eight tropical storms, a new record for that month.  The season also featured intense and long-lived hurricanes.  Ivan, a category 5 storm, reached a minimum pressure of 910 mb, a value surpassed by only five other tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.  In addition, Ivan was a major hurricane for a total of 10 days, a new record for a single storm since reliable records began in 1944.  In terms of “accumulated cyclone energy” (ACE, the sum of the squares of the maximum wind speed at six hour intervals), overall activity this year was over two and a half times the long-term mean.

## 2004 Hurricane Season Stats at a Glance

- 15 Named Storms
- 6 Major Hurricanes
- Limited Fatalities
- Just Over 3100 Deaths
-     Worldwide
- In U.S., only 60 deaths
- Record $45 Billion in Property Damage
- The low fatalities count is a tribute to the entire participating community

**Notes:**

DIRECT 2004 Hurricane Deaths (all forecast areas)
Alex (1), Bonnie (3), Charley (15), Frances (8), Gaston (8), Ivan (92), Jeanne (3000+ in Haiti alone)

Please see Atlantic Hurricanes 2004 by James Franklin (submitted to Weatherwise on 22 FEB 2005) for a summary of the 2004 season and a detailed breakdown of individual storms.  Table 1 (last page) has a breakdown of each storm including max winds, min pressure, dates and U.S. damages in millions.

The full summary of each hurricane has been placed on the slides that corresponds to that hurricane.

## Hurricane Charley9-14 August 2004

*150 mph  941 mb*

**Notes:**
	Charley originated from a tropical wave, developing into a tropical depression on August 9 about 115 miles south-southeast of Barbados.  The depression strengthened within a low-shear environment to a tropical storm early the next day in the eastern Caribbean, and became a hurricane on the 11th near Jamaica.  Charley’s center passed about 40 miles southwest of the southwest coast of Jamaica, and then passed about 15 miles northeast of Grand Cayman as the hurricane reached category 2 strength on the 12th.   Charley turned to the north-northwest and continued to strengthen, making landfall in western Cuba as a category 3 hurricane with 120 m.p.h. maximum winds. Charley weakened just after its passage over western Cuba; its maximum winds decreased to about 110 m.p.h. by the time the center reached the Dry Tortugas around 8 am on the 13th.
	Charley then came under the influence of an unseasonably strong mid-tropospheric trough that had dropped from the east-central United States into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The hurricane turned north-northeastward and accelerated toward the southwest coast of Florida as it began to intensify rapidly; dropsonde measurements indicate that Charley’s central pressure fell from 964 mb to 941 mb in 4.5 hours.  By 10 am, the maximum winds had increased to near 125 m.p.h., and three hours later had increased to 145 m.p.h. - category 4 strength.  Charley made landfall with maximum winds near 150 m.p.h. on the southwest coast of Florida just north of Captiva Island around 3:45 pm.  An hour later, Charley’s eye passed over Punta Gorda.  The hurricane then crossed central Florida, passing near Kissimmee and Orlando.  Charley was still of hurricane intensity around midnight when its center cleared the northeast coast of Florida near Daytona Beach.  After moving into the Atlantic, Charley came ashore again near Cape Romain, South Carolina near midday on the 14th as a category 1 hurricane.  The center then moved just offshore before making a final landfall at North Myrtle Beach.  Charley soon weakened to a tropical storm over southeastern North Carolina and became extratropical on the 15th  as it moved back over water near Virginia Beach.		
	Although ferocious, Charley was a very small hurricane at its Florida landfall, with its maximum winds and storm surge located only about 6-7 miles from the center.  This helped minimize the extent and amplitude of the storm surge, which likely did not exceed 7 feet.  However, the hurricane’s violent winds devastated Punta Gorda and neighboring Port Charlotte. Rainfall amounts were generally modest, less than 8 inches.  Charley also produced 16 tornadoes in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. The total U. S. damage is estimated to be near $15 billion, making Charley the second costliest hurricane in U.S. history. Casualties were remarkably low, given the strength of the hurricane and the destruction that resulted.  Charley was directly responsible for ten deaths in the United States.  There were also four deaths in Cuba and one in Jamaica. 

## Hurricane Frances25 August-8 September 2004

*145 mph  935 mb*

**Notes:**
Frances developed from a tropical wave, becoming a tropical depression on August 25 several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern Cape Verde Islands, a tropical storm later that day, and a hurricane the following day.  Frances moved generally west-northwestward for the next several days, passing north of the Leeward Islands on the 31st and just north of the Turks and Caicos Islands on the 2nd.  During this time, Frances’ peak winds reached 145 m.p.h. (category 4) on two occasions while the hurricane underwent a series of concentric eyewall cycles.  Westerly wind shear then caused Frances to weaken to a category 2 hurricane by the time it passed over the northwestern Bahamas on the 4th.  Frances made landfall near Stuart, Florida just after midnight on the 5th with 105 m.p.h. (category 2) maximum winds.  Frances gradually weakened as it moved slowly across the Florida Peninsula, and became a tropical storm just before emerging into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico early on September 6.  Frances made a final landfall in the Florida Big Bend region that afternoon as a tropical storm.  Frances weakened over the southeastern United States and became extratropical over West Virginia on the 9th.  
Frances produced a storm surge of nearly 6 feet at its Florida east coast landfall, and caused widespread heavy rains and associated freshwater flooding over much of the eastern United States, with a maximum reported rainfall of 18.07 inches at Linville Falls, North Carolina.  Frances was also associated with an outbreak of over 100 tornadoes throughout the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states.  Eight deaths resulted from the forces of the storm – seven in the United States and one in the Bahamas.  U.S. damage is estimated to be near $8.9 billion, over 90% of which occurred in Florida.  

## Hurricane Ivan2-24 September 2004

*165 mph  910 mb*

- Hurricane Ivan2-24 September 2004

**Notes:**
	Ivan developed from a large tropical wave that crossed the west coast of Africa on August 31, and spawned a tropical depression two days later.  The depression reached storm strength on September 3rd (one of only a dozen on record to do so south of 10N) and continued to strengthen.  By the 5th, Ivan had become a hurricane about 1150 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Eighteen hours later Ivan became the southernmost storm to reach major hurricane status, at 10.2N.  Ivan was a category 3 hurricane when the center passed about 7 miles south of Grenada, a path that took the northern eyewall of Ivan directly over the island. In the Caribbean, Ivan became a category 5 hurricane, with winds of 160 m.p.h., on the 9th when it was south of the Dominican Republic, and on two occasions the minimum pressure fell to 910 mb.  The center of Ivan passed within about 20 miles of Jamaica on the 11th and a similar distance from Grand Cayman on the 12th, with Grand Cayman likely experiencing sustained winds of category 4 strength.  Ivan then turned to the northwest and passed through the Yucatan channel on the 14th, bringing hurricane conditions to extreme western Cuba.  Ivan moved across the east-central Gulf of Mexico, making landfall as a major hurricane with sustained winds of near 120 m.p.h. on the 16th just west of Gulf Shores, Alabama. 
	Ivan weakened as it moved inland, producing over 100 tornadoes and heavy rains across much of the southeastern United States, before merging with a frontal system over the Delmarva Peninsula on the 18th.  While this would normally be the end of the story, the extratropical remnant low of Ivan split off from the frontal system and drifted southward in the western Atlantic for several days, crossed southern Florida, and re-entered the Gulf of Mexico on the 21st.  The low re-acquired tropical characteristics, becoming a tropical storm for the second time on the 22nd in the central Gulf. Ivan weakened before it made its final landfall in southwestern Louisiana as a tropical depression on the 24th. 
	Ivan’s storm surge completely over-washed the island of Grand Cayman, where an estimated 95% of the buildings were damaged or destroyed.  Surge heights of 10-15 feet occurred along the Gulf coast during Ivan’s first U.S. landfall.  Peak rainfall amounts in the Caribbean and United States were generally 10-15 inches.  The death toll from Ivan stands at 92 – 39 in Grenada, 25 in the United States, 17 in Jamaica, 4 in Dominican Republic, 3 in Venezuela, 2 in the Cayman Islands, and 1 each in Tobago and Barbados.  U.S. damage is estimated to be near $14.2 billion, the third largest total on record. 

## Hurricane Jeanne 13-28 September 2004

*120 mph  950 mb*

**Notes:**
	Jeanne formed from a tropical wave, becoming a tropical depression on September 13 near the Leeward Islands, and strengthening to a tropical storm the next day. Moving west-northwestward, Jeanne struck Puerto Rico on the 15th with 70 m.p.h. winds and then strengthened to a hurricane just before making landfall in the Dominican Republic.  Jeanne spent nearly 36 hours over the rough terrain of Hispaniola, generating torrential rainfall before emerging into the Atlantic north of the island.  Steering currents in the western Atlantic were weak, and Jeanne moved slowly through and north of the southeastern Bahamas over the next five days while it gradually regained the strength it had lost over Hispaniola.  By the 23rd, high pressure had built in over the northeastern United States and western Atlantic, causing Jeanne to turn westward.  Jeanne strengthened and became a major hurricane on the 25th while the center moved over Abaco and then Grand Bahama Island.  Early on the 26th, the center of Jeanne’s 60-mile-wide eye crossed the Florida coast near Stuart, at virtually the identical spot that Frances had come ashore three weeks earlier.  Maximum winds at the time of landfall are estimated to be near 120 m.p.h.
	Jeanne weakened as it moved across central Florida, becoming a tropical storm during the afternoon of the 26th near Tampa, and then weakening to a depression a day later over central Georgia.  The depression was still accompanied by heavy rain when it moved over the Carolinas, Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula on the 28th and 29th before becoming extratropical.  
	Jeanne produced extreme rain accumulations in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, with nearly 24 inches reported in Vieques.  Rains from the cyclone resulted in historic floods in Puerto Rico, and deadly flash-floods and mudslides in Haiti, where over 3000 people lost their lives and roughly 200,000 were left homeless.  Three deaths occurred in Florida, and one each in Puerto Rico, South Carolina, and Virginia.  In the United States, damage is estimated to be near $6.9 billion.

## Hurricane Season 2004Lessons Learned

- The Whole System is Vital
- Team Approach is Essential in Handling Hurricane Management Enterprise
- Entire Community (Preparedness, Response and Recovery) Must Be Tightly Integrated with Media and Public
- At the Height of the Storm All Resources Must Share Expertise and Communicate Efficiently
- Research Programs Are Leading To Better Forecasts

## Hurricane Liaison Team

- FEMA, NWS, state/local emergency managers partnership
- Coordinate latest warnings efficiently
- During Ivan, FEMA Headquarters, Regional Offices and 17 states participated concurrently

**Notes:**
Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) – established by FEMA (resides within National Hurricane Center)
One of the cooperative activities carried out under the National Hurricane Program is the deployment of a Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) in response to a hurricane threat. 
• The team, which consists of FEMA, NWS, state, and local emergency management officials, reports to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) prior to the landfall of a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico. 
• The primary purpose of the team is to assist in coordinating the latest advisories from the NHC to the Federal, state, and local emergency management agencies. 
• The team works directly with NHC forecasters to monitor storm tracks and intensities and prepare briefings for the FEMA Director, FEMA Regional Operations Centers, and the potentially impacted State Emergency Operations Centers. 
• Each Hurricane Liaison Team coordinates closely with FEMA Headquarters Staff by phone and video conferencing systems. 
• The team is led by the Hurricane Program Manager, who administers FEMA’s National Hurricane Program in the FEMA Region IV office. Hurricane Bret: FEMA Headquarters staff consulting by video conference with the FEMA Hurricane Liaison Team in the National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL. 

## Emergency Managers & The Media

- “The battle against the hurricane is won outside the hurricane season”
- Max Mayfield, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center Director

- Essential in Developing a Prepared and Knowledgeable Culture
- Partnerships Fosters “All on the Same Page” Mentality
- “You play like you practice”
- Craig Fugate, Director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management

**Notes:**
Craig Fugate helped keep “all on the same page” 

Florida is leading the way on preparedness and response

Integration and communication between NHC and media was key

## Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)Successful Transitions From Research to Operations

- New SHIPS model predictors

- AMSU intensity & size estimates

- GFDL Hurricane Model upgrades

- TC rainfall climatology & persistence
- (R-CLIPER) model

- Probability of
- rapid intensification

**Notes:**
Acknowledge the work and leadership of the JHT steering committee 
SEE PRESENTATIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR AN UPDATE

From MAX – The JHT is a “mature program”  -  Each completed project is one little step towards better forecasts!
Concept for Testbed was approved and funded by NOAA in 2001
NOAA is leading the way from research to operations.  JHT receives $1.0 – $1.5 million each year for projects and they are in their third round now with 15 ongoing projects (12 multi-year listed below and three one-year projects*) under consideration.
Mission:   To transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, and observational advances of the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP), its sponsoring agencies, the academic community and other groups into improved tropical cyclone analysis and prediction at operational centers.
Participates:  NOAA, Navy, and NASA, Academia, private sector
Primary areas of focus			Number of projects
Numerical model upgrade for track, intensity, and rainfall forecasts  (4)
Track forecasting guidance  			              (1)
Intensity forecasting guidance   		              (3)
Enhancements to observed data (airborne Doppler radar) 	              (1)
Initial intensity estimation  		    	              (1)
Tropical cyclogenesis  			              (1)
Tropical cyclone rainfall	  		              (1)
Some Projects Include:
Tropical Cyclone Rainfall:  Inland flooding continues to account for more than half the deaths due to hurricanes.  Improved rainfall forecasts will improve flood warnings.
Improving track forecast guidance:  Dropwindsondes – dropwindsonde data is used during G-IV surveillance missions to better measure the winds that steer the hurricane.   On numerous occasions the use of the dropwindsondes has shown to improve the track forecast by 15 to 20%.   Research is underway to improve the targeting of these dropsondes.  Researchers are developing strategies for determining specific targets around the hurricane where dropwindsonde observations are most likely to improve the numerical model track forecasts. 

## Hurricane Impacts at Landfall Challenges Ahead

- High Seas

- Inland Flooding

- Beach Erosion

- Storm Surge

- Wind Damage

- Disruption of
- Communications,
- Utilities,
- Transportation,
- Schedules &Infrastructure

**Notes:**
According to the 2005 National Coastal Condition Report (by NOAA/EPA/USGS/FWS), the coastal population is increasing by 3600 people/day, giving a projected total increase of 27 million people by 2015, the researchers found.  This rate of growth is faster than that of the nation as a whole, and it is great stress on the coastal environment.

2004 Hurricane Field Program Plan (components)
(WIND DAMAGE) Tropical Cyclone Wind Fields Near Landfall: This experiment is a multi-option, single-aircraft experiment designed to study the changes in TC near surface wind structure near and after landfall. An accurate description of the TC surface wind field near and after landfall in real-time is important for warning, preparedness, and recovery efforts. HRD is developing a real-time surface wind analysis system to aid the TPC/NHC in the preparation of warnings and advisories in TCs. The analyses could reduce uncertainties in the size of hurricane warning areas. Flight-level and Doppler wind data collected by a NOAA WP-3D will be transmitted to TPC/NHC where they could result in improved real-time and poststorm analyses. Doppler data collected near a WSR-88D would yield a time series of three-dimensional wind analyses showing the evolution of the inner core of TCs near and after landfall.

(HIGH SEAS) Tropical Cyclone – Midlatitude Interaction Experiment: This multi-option, multi-aircraft experiment is designed to study the interactions between a TC and midlatitude baroclinic environment. Specific objectives are to identify the physical mechanisms associated with the asymmetric expansion of wind, cloud, precipitation, and ocean surface wave fields during the initial stage of extratropical transition. To examine the relative roles of the TC and midlatitude circulation, aircraft will be used to monitor the changes in TC structure and the interface between the TC and midlatitude circulation into which it is moving.

(STORM SURGE/BEACH EROSION) Storm Surge Team  
(More complete summary provided in binder – not part of Hurricane Field Program Plan)
Objectives – 1) Complete a comprehensive assessment of users and user needs; 2) Explore outside R&D activities relative to a community storm surge model; 3) Identify issues, challenges, and opportunities and a plan for NOAA for implementation of a comprehensive storm surge forecast,   including the associated observational requirements, capabilities, and opportunities. 
Composed of four working groups which are 1) Leadership Group  2) Needs Assessment   3)Modeling R&D   4)  Forecast and Decision Support Tool Development

## Challenges Ahead“Don’t Rest on Your Laurels”

- NOAA Research Must Push Aggressively Forward
- Improved Flood Forecasting Is Key To Saving Lives
- Hurricane Intensity Forecasting is a Major Challenge
- Observational Improvements Needed Along With Better Computational Skills
- Global Earth Observing System of System (GEOSS)

**Notes:**
GEOSS

The tropical cyclone program depends strongly on our regional partners in the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization to acquire and distribute vital meteorological observations. Such synergy improves ours services to these nations and furthers the societal benefits outlined in both the NOAA Strategic Plan and the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System, the U.S. component of the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS).  This effort will reduce loss of life and property from disasters and improve weather forecasting. 

As GEOSS flourishes the system has the potential to dramatically increase the number of totals observations in the “system” available to the hurricane forecasters and the numerical models, likely improving analysis and forecasts, and allowing for new research opportunities.

GEOSS also holds promise for more and improved ocean data collection such as sea surface temperature which will help improve tropical cyclone intensity and flooding/rainfall forecasts, as well as determining and monitoring atmospheric patterns such as El Nino and La Nina episodes.  This may allow scientists to increase their accuracy of the seasonal outlook for hurricane activity.    

With coastal storms reflecting 71 percent, or $7 billion, of U.S. disaster losses every year, improved forecasting will have a major favorable impact on preparedness. 

## Advance Track & Improve Intensity, Structure & Rain

- Need high quality hurricane core* and environmental observations
- Need advanced data assimilation techniques for environment and hurricane core
- Need advanced modeling system
- Need a “disciplined” approach for transition from research to operations, e.g. JHT, JCSDA
- *critical observations for intensity/structure and rain problem

**Notes:**
JHT – Joint Hurricane Testbed (see previously provided talking points)

JCSDA – Joint Center for the Satellite Data Assimilation – a partnership between NOAA/Navy/NASA
The goal of the JCSDA is to accelerate the use of observations from earth-orbiting satellites in operational numerical prediction models for the purpose of improving weather forecasts, improving seasonal to interannual climate forecasts, and  increasing the physical accuracy of climate data sets.  The advanced instruments of current and planned NOAA, NASA, DoD, and international agency satellite missions will provide large volumes of data on atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface conditions with accuracies and spatial resolutions never before achieved. The JCSDA will strive to realize the maximum benefit of its investment in space as part of an advanced global observing system.  Funded proposals will help accelerate the use of satellite data from both operational and experimental spacecrafts in operational weather and climate prediction environments, advance data assimilation science including radiative transfer models, improve numerical weather prediction model physics to increase information extraction, and characterize the error covariances related to forecast models, radiative transfer models and satellite observations.

## Advanced Observation Platforms for Hurricanes—GEOSS

**Environment** (Winds, Moisture, Temp.)
- In-situ: G-IV, UAV’s, Driftsondes
- Satellite: Advanced Instruments (microwave)
**Hurricane Core** (Winds From 12 km to Surface)
- G-IV, WP-3D Airborne Doppler Radars
- 88-D Level II Data
**Upper** **Ocean** (SST’s, Wave Height, Mixed Layer)
- AXBTs, Altimeter,  ARGOS, Current Meter, Buoys

**Notes:**
The merging of data sets from these independent, yet vital systems will aid the hurricane forecaster and hurricane researcher.  The power of GEOSS is undeniable.

The original motivation for the driftsonde development was to support research associated with the WMO THORPEX program.
In 2003 NCAR began testing driftsondes to probe high levels of the atmosphere . Driftsondes use thin polyethylene balloons to lift a payload of up to 20 dropsondes to a height of 10 miles (16 km) or more. They can stay at that altitude for five to six days, drifting in the prevailing stratospheric winds and releasing dropsondes along the way. Driftsondes could greatly enhance weather observing above remote oceans.
Use of  Airborne Doppler Radar Data in Tropical Cyclone Wind fields 
If a tropical cyclone with sufficient radar scatterers to define the vortex moves within 230 km (Doppler range) of a WSR-88D, then a NOAA P-3 will fly on tracks defined by the WSR-88D and the storm center. Because the airborne Doppler radar scans in a vertical plane perpendicular to the aircraft track, the airborne and land-based Doppler rays will be nearly orthogonal, optimal for dual-Doppler analyses. During the storm, the WSR-88D will record base data. After the storm HRD will obtain the WSR-88D data from the National Climatic Data Center and process the two Doppler data sets. 
AXBTs – Air-Deployed Drifting Buoys (18 cruises in  2004:  3531 XBTs deployed and quality controlled – see extra slide
NOAA’s AOML is comparing the data collected by AXBTs with Argo profiling floats to assess the impact of the new data set on the interpretation of long term records.
Also, by comparing results with those from data collected during World Ocean Circulation Experiment and ocean circulation models
NOAA’s AOML is assessing the ability of data collected along high density XBT lines to obtain meridional heat transports.

## 2004 Supplemental Funds Enabling

- Transition of Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) to operations
- Acquisition of instruments for the Air Force aircraft
- Completion of calibration studies
- Accelerated preparation of key data sets supporting timely HWRF model development

**Notes:**
SFMR Talking Points:
The USAF folks also received $10.4 million (as part of the same supplemental but provided to USAF) as well for upgrades to the C-130 Hurricane Hunters with the SFMR.  However, General Stickford, Commander of USAF Weather will also be at IHC and speaking to that as well. 

Goals: 
Updated calibration for AOC SFMR and testing of alternative calibration procedures -- Status: Completed Feb. 2005 (will be reported on at IHC, see presentation on Wednesday from HR for all the details)
Post-processing of GPS sonde surface wind estimates -- Status : Expected completion March 2005 
Presentation of initial results of inter comparison between HRD and AOC SFMR wind measurements at 59th IHC -- Status: Expected completion March 2005 
Identifying collocated SFMR and GPS surface wind estimates and performing statistical analyses -- Status: Expected completion 3rd Q 2005 
Calibration flights to test results in preparation for 2005 season -- Status: Expected completion 3rd Q 2005 
Execute 2005 flight missions to collect additional data and test new calibration procedures -- Status: Expected completion 4th Q 2005 
Prepare final report documenting results of evaluation report -- Status: expected completion 4th Q 2005

Objective:Measurement of the hurricane surface wind field, and in particular the estimation of wind maxima, has long been a requirement of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC). The NOAA/Hurricane Research Division's (HRD) Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) ,built by Prosensing Inc., is the prototype for a new generation of airborne remote sensing instruments designed for operational surface wind estimation in hurricanes. The first experimental SFMR surface wind measurements were made in Hurricane Allen in 1980, the first real-time retrieval of winds on board the aircraft in Hurricane Earl in 1985, and the first operational transmission of winds to TPC/NHC in Hurricane Dennis in 1999. 

## Summary

- A Comprehensive Team Effort Must Continue
- Research Needs to Increasingly Focus Resources on Hurricane Intensity and Rainfall Research
- Preparedness, Education, and Communication Among All Partners Will Be Even More Important in the Next Decade