# Presentation: 352584

## Numerical Weather Prediction at Air Force Weather Agency

**Mark T. Surmeier, Deputy Director**
**Air and Space Science**
**Air Force Weather Agency**
**Offutt AFB, NE**

## Overview

**AFWA Mission**
**Historical NWP Environment **
**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**
**Current NWP Environment**
**Next NWP Environment: WRF**

## AFWA Mission 

**AFWA Mission**** **

**Notes:**
The purpose of slides 3-12 is not only to provide the audience with common background but to also focus the spotlight from the “big picture” (AFW Mission)  down to a key component of the AFWWS (mesoscale NWP model [e.g., MM5/WRF).  By the time you and the audience reach slide 12, they should come away feeling, ok, the AFWWS’s #1 component (key to success) is the mesoscale modeling system itself. 

## First Operational Use of NWP by USAF
History, 4th Weather Group, Jan –Dec 1954
Introduced the Numerical Predictions Project
Conceived at Air Force Cambridge Research Center (R&D)
Programmed for operational establishment (USAF Weather Central) on 1 July 1954 at Andrews AF Base as a joint WBAN project
Regional baroclinic model, 300km grid, US domain, 36hr
IBM 701 (2048 36-bit words)

- History, 4th Weather Group, Jan –Dec 1954
- Introduced the Numerical Predictions Project
- Conceived at Air Force Cambridge Research Center (R&D)
- Programmed for operational establishment (USAF Weather Central) on 1 July 1954 at Andrews AF Base as a joint WBAN project
- Regional baroclinic model, 300km grid, US domain, 36hr
- IBM 701 (2048 36-bit words)

**Historical NWP Environment**

- http://www.columbia.edu/acis/history/701.html

- IBM 701

## 1955: USAF Weather Central (NWP focus) Moved to Suitland, MD
1957: USAF Weather Central Moved to Offutt AFB, NE to Combine with the Global Weather Central
1958: First Automated “contrail” Forecasts
1960: Global Weather Central Purchased its First Computer: an IBM 7090
1961: Began Computer Wind Factor Forecasts; Added IBM 1401

**1957:** **USAF Weather Central Moved to Offutt AFB, NE to Combine with the Global Weather Central**
**1958: First Automated “contrail” Forecasts**
**1960:** **Global Weather Central Purchased its First Computer: an IBM 7090**
**1961: Began Computer Wind Factor Forecasts; Added IBM 1401**

**Historical NWP Environment**

## 1962: Computerized Stratospheric Analyses and Numerical Cloud Forecasts; Added IT&T Automatic Data Exchange 6400
1963:  First Automated Facsimile Charts; First Receipt of METSAT Data; Upgraded the IBM 7090 to an IBM 7094
1964: Implemented Quasi-geostrophic Prediction Model (SIXLVL)
381km grid; NH; 72hr forecast length

**1963:  First Automated Facsimile Charts; First Receipt of METSAT Data; Upgraded the IBM 7090 to an IBM 7094**
**1964:** **Implemented Quasi-geostrophic Prediction Model (SIXLVL)**
- 381km grid; NH; 72hr forecast length

**Historical NWP Environment**

## 1965: DoD Established the Automated Weather Network—Worldwide High-Speed Data Collection; Added Terminal to Process METSAT Data from DOC Satellites
1966: Transmitted NWP-Based Products for Asian and European Theaters; Added a second IBM 7094 Computer
1967: Installed Four UNIVAC 1108 Computers
1970: Computer Flight Plans; First Operational PBL Model (185km grid; 7 layers; regional; 24hr forecast—7LVL) 

**1966: Transmitted NWP-Based Products for Asian and European Theaters; Added a second IBM 7094 Computer**
**1967: Installed Four UNIVAC 1108 Computers**
**1970: Computer Flight Plans; First Operational PBL Model (185km grid; 7 layers; regional; 24hr forecast—7LVL) **

**Historical NWP Environment**

## 1972: AWS’s Medium Range Forecast Mission Moved from Suitland, MD to AFGWC; Added Fifth Computer—UNIVAC 1110 
1974: AWS Primitive Equation (PE) Model (381km res., 7 layers, NH, 72hr forecast)
1976: Upgraded a UNIVAC 1108 to 1110; Added a 1110
1979: Replaced 3 UNIVAC 1108s w 2 UNIVAC 1100/81s
1982: Replaced 2 UNIVAC 1100/81s with 2 Sperry 1100/82s

**1974: AWS Primitive Equation (PE) Model (381km res., 7 layers, NH, 72hr forecast)**
**1976: Upgraded a UNIVAC 1108 to 1110; Added a 1110**
**1979: Replaced 3 UNIVAC 1108s w 2 UNIVAC 1100/81s**
**1982: Replaced 2 UNIVAC 1100/81s with 2 Sperry 1100/82s**

**Historical NWP Environment**

## 1986: Advanced Weather Analysis and Prediction System (AWAPS)--Global Spectral Model (GSM) 493km, 14lyrs, global; 96hr fcst; High-Resolution Analysis System (HIRAS); Cray X-MP Supercomputer
1987: Sperry 1100/82s Upgraded to UNISYS 1100/91s

**1987: Sperry 1100/82s Upgraded to UNISYS 1100/91s**

**Historical NWP Environment**

**1990: Replaced 1100/xxs by One UNISYS 2200/633—Called Weather Information Processing System (WIPS)**
**1992: Relocatable Window Model (RWM) (46.3km, 16 lyrs, 36 hr)—Last component of AWAPS (started in ’86); Initialized w HIRAS**

## 1992: Quote from one of our Tech Notes:
	“This [the computational cost] makes increasing the grid resolution an ineffective way to increase forecaster skill.”
1995:  AFWA Stopped Using the GSM Global Model as Primary (part of the NAVAF Agreement--Used Navy NOGAPS Data; GSM Used as Back-up into 1997)
1996: RWM Run Operationally; First Visualizations; AWAPS-U (IBM SP1 Replaced Cray XMP)
1998: Discontinued RWM

**	****“****This [the computational cost] makes increasing the grid resolution an ineffective way to increase forecaster skill.”**
**1995:  AFWA Stopped Using the GSM Global Model as Primary (part of the NAVAF Agreement--Used Navy NOGAPS Data; GSM Used as Back-up into 1997)**
**1996: RWM Run Operationally; First Visualizations; AWAPS-U (IBM SP1 Replaced Cray XMP)**
**1998: Discontinued RWM**

**Historical NWP Environment**

## 1995: Advanced Concept Technology Demo Using Penn State Univ./NCAR Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) & 14-Node IBM SP2 System
Bosnia window run once per day (NOGAPS initialization)
25  Levels
27 km Grid Resolution
24 Hour Forecast

- Bosnia window run once per day (NOGAPS initialization)
- 25  Levels
- 27 km Grid Resolution
- 24 Hour Forecast

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

**1996:**
- Expanded IBM SP-2 Production System to 21 Nodes
- Accelerated System Growth

## 1997:
Added Southwest Asia & CONUS Windows

- Added Southwest Asia & CONUS Windows

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

- Implemented worldwide relocatability (FSL/ANL assist)
- Selected Contractor for Global Theater Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS)--TRW; IBM SP-2
**1998:**
- New IBM SP-2 Production system: 66 T4 nodes and 4 W3 nodes

## 1999:
Ran 18 theaters per day; 80GB/day of model output data; over 90,000 GIF images
Images are made available to meteorologists in the field through AFWIN (Air Force Weather Information Network) over the Internet

- Ran 18 theaters per day; 80GB/day of model output data; over 90,000 GIF images
- Images are made available to meteorologists in the field through AFWIN (Air Force Weather Information Network) over the Internet

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

## 1999:
Parallelized MM5 and supporting applications-- significant decreases in application run times achieved
Added IBM Silver node production system (110 nodes, 4 CPUs per node, 332MHz)
Provided 2.5 Gigaflops per node
GTWAPS evolved from a single system two-frame SP into a six-system eighteen-frame SP
41  levels; 72 Hour Forecast; 36, 12, and 4 km Grid Spacing

- Parallelized MM5 and supporting applications-- significant decreases in application run times achieved
- Added IBM Silver node production system (110 nodes, 4 CPUs per node, 332MHz)
- Provided 2.5 Gigaflops per node
- GTWAPS evolved from a single system two-frame SP into a six-system eighteen-frame SP
- 41  levels; 72 Hour Forecast; 36, 12, and 4 km Grid Spacing

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

*From 12 gigaflops in October 1997*

## 1999:

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

## 2000:
Optimized windows
Less overlap-- faster processing; more coverage
Focused on current requirements (theaters, coverage, etc.)
Projected processing timeline changes based on the cumulative effects of the following:
OWS:  Incremental receipt of MMLITE GriB files
OWS:  Incremental post-processing (all parameters)
OWS:  Incremental visualizations
AFWA:  Domain, Forecast Length, and Output Frequency changes based on new window plan 
Overall impact: products available at the OWSs roughly 11⁄2 hours earlier
300,000 products per day

- Optimized windows
- Less overlap-- faster processing; more coverage
- Focused on current requirements (theaters, coverage, etc.)
- Projected processing timeline changes based on the cumulative effects of the following:
- OWS:  Incremental receipt of MMLITE GriB files
- OWS:  Incremental post-processing (all parameters)
- OWS:  Incremental visualizations
- AFWA:  Domain, Forecast Length, and Output Frequency changes based on new window plan
- Overall impact: products available at the OWSs roughly 11⁄2 hours earlier
- 300,000 products per day

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

## 2000:
Visualization Boom
MIKE: Interactive GrADS application (generated customizable 2-D B&W charts 
Added more post-processed data types
Combined all visualization packages into single GUI
Created 2-panel and 4-panel chart options
IMaST:  Increase Skew-T vertical resolution

- Visualization Boom
- MIKE: Interactive GrADS application (generated customizable 2-D B&W charts
- Added more post-processed data types
- Combined all visualization packages into single GUI
- Created 2-panel and 4-panel chart options
- IMaST:  Increase Skew-T vertical resolution

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

## 2001
Implemented Mesoscale Data Assimilation System (MDAS) and Multi-Variate Optimal Interpolation (MVOI)
Tropical Storm Bogusing capability for Tropical Theaters (improved track and intensity forecasts for TCs worldwide)
AFWA MM5 Window Configurations:
Eighteen 45-km theaters (14 regular + 4 Tropical) (Also, T1 - T6 4x daily) 
Eleven 15-km nests
Two 5-km nests
Total of 37 windows every 12 hours
80% earth coverage; 98% land coverage

- Implemented Mesoscale Data Assimilation System (MDAS) and Multi-Variate Optimal Interpolation (MVOI)
- Tropical Storm Bogusing capability for Tropical Theaters (improved track and intensity forecasts for TCs worldwide)
- AFWA MM5 Window Configurations:
- Eighteen 45-km theaters (14 regular + 4 Tropical) (Also, T1 - T6 4x daily)
- Eleven 15-km nests
- Two 5-km nests
- Total of 37 windows every 12 hours
- 80% earth coverage; 98% land coverage

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

## 2001
MM5 Model Runs Produced on Two Production Platforms, Prod 2 and  Prod 3
94 IBM Silver nodes and 41 WH II nodes, respectively
625 Gflops

- MM5 Model Runs Produced on Two Production Platforms, Prod 2 and  Prod 3
- 94 IBM Silver nodes and 41 WH II nodes, respectively
- 625 Gflops

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

## 2001
Added Capability to Initialize with NCEP’s AVN/MRF
Parameterizations in use for MM5
Cumulus: Grell for 45 and 15km; explicit for 5km
Planetary boundary layer (PBL): MRF
Explicit moisture: Mixed phase  (a.k.a. Reisner I)
Radiation: Cloud radiation
Ground temperature: Five layer soil
Post-processing
Raw MM5 output used to derive over 100 forecast parameters
Algorithms developed by AFWA and external labs
AFWIN products (over 400,000 per day; 170,000 GrADS and 231,660 Vis5D)
TrimGriB capability (tailored gridded data sets)

- Added Capability to Initialize with NCEP’s AVN/MRF
- Parameterizations in use for MM5
- Cumulus: Grell for 45 and 15km; explicit for 5km
- Planetary boundary layer (PBL): MRF
- Explicit moisture: Mixed phase  (a.k.a. Reisner I)
- Radiation: Cloud radiation
- Ground temperature: Five layer soil
- Post-processing
- Raw MM5 output used to derive over 100 forecast parameters
- Algorithms developed by AFWA and external labs
- AFWIN products (over 400,000 per day; 170,000 GrADS and 231,660 Vis5D)
- TrimGriB capability (tailored gridded data sets)

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

## 2001
Objective and Subjective Verification of MM5
Integration of WRF Early Release into AFWA Processing Environment
MM5 Integrated with Other AFWA Models
Land Surface Model (near-global land-surface analysis model)
Real-Time Cloud Analysis (RTNEPH/CDFS-II; global cloud analysis models; forecaster enhanced)
Advect Cloud (ADVCLD), High-Res Cloud Prog (HRCP), & C-MNS fine resolution cloud forecasts (forecaster enhanced global cloud trajectory forecast models)
Snow Analysis (global snow & ice areas; forecaster enhanced)
Surface Temperature (global temperature analysis model)

- Objective and Subjective Verification of MM5
- Integration of WRF Early Release into AFWA Processing Environment
- MM5 Integrated with Other AFWA Models
- Land Surface Model (near-global land-surface analysis model)
- Real-Time Cloud Analysis (RTNEPH/CDFS-II; global cloud analysis models; forecaster enhanced)
- Advect Cloud (ADVCLD), High-Res Cloud Prog (HRCP), & C-MNS fine resolution cloud forecasts (forecaster enhanced global cloud trajectory forecast models)
- Snow Analysis (global snow & ice areas; forecaster enhanced)
- Surface Temperature (global temperature analysis model)

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

## 2002
Improved Objective and Subjective Verification of MM5
Redesigned JAAWIN
Operational Implementation of MM5-V3-R5.2 (improved boundary layer physics)

- Improved Objective and Subjective Verification of MM5
- Redesigned JAAWIN
- Operational Implementation of MM5-V3-R5.2 (improved boundary layer physics)

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

## 2002
Added 2 and 10 meter output of T, RH, u- and v- winds  
Reduced model biases of forecasts T, Td, wind speed, wind direction, ceiling and visibility
MM5-V3-R5.3 Operational Implementation (added options for “unified-LSM” and improved polar physics) 

- Added 2 and 10 meter output of T, RH, u- and v- winds
- Reduced model biases of forecasts T, Td, wind speed, wind direction, ceiling and visibility
- MM5-V3-R5.3 Operational Implementation (added options for “unified-LSM” and improved polar physics)

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

- MM5 3DVAR Operational Implementation (state-of-the-art data assimilation system at front end of MM5; replaced MVOI)

## 2003
Linked to Defense Research and Engineering Network (DREN)—High bandwidth to use HPC centers
Established Classified Modeling Capability (Operational in 2004)
Established Visiting Scientist Position (assimilation) at JCSDA
Completed Common High-performance S/W Support Initiative ($1.5M over 3 yrs—WRF and WRF 3DVAR development)

- Linked to Defense Research and Engineering Network (DREN)—High bandwidth to use HPC centers
- Established Classified Modeling Capability (Operational in 2004)
- Established Visiting Scientist Position (assimilation) at JCSDA
- Completed Common High-performance S/W Support Initiative ($1.5M over 3 yrs—WRF and WRF 3DVAR development)

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

## 2003
Collaborated with FNMOC to Establish Fine-Resolution MM5 and COAMPS Windows for SWA Operations

- Collaborated with FNMOC to Establish Fine-Resolution MM5 and COAMPS Windows for SWA Operations

**Historical NWP Environment: MM5**

## 2003

**Current NWP Environment: MM5**

## 2004
Halted MM5 Technology Enhancement Efforts for WRF
WRF is a Community Model Built in the Same Spirit as MM5, but is Designed for Greater Expansion (numerics, physics, and initialization)
WRF is Designed for Cloud Scale Phenomena (1-10 km horiz. res. grids) that are not Explicitly Calculated and are not Currently Forecasted Well
WRF Addresses Key Warfighter and National Security Effectiveness Issues Caused by Weather
Signed WRF National Concept of Operations Framework with NCEP and FNMOC

- Halted MM5 Technology Enhancement Efforts for WRF
- WRF is a Community Model Built in the Same Spirit as MM5, but is Designed for Greater Expansion (numerics, physics, and initialization)
- WRF is Designed for Cloud Scale Phenomena (1-10 km horiz. res. grids) that are not Explicitly Calculated and are not Currently Forecasted Well
- WRF Addresses Key Warfighter and National Security Effectiveness Issues Caused by Weather
- Signed WRF National Concept of Operations Framework with NCEP and FNMOC

**Next NWP Environment: WRF**

## 2004
Running WRF V1.2 /1.3 Retrospective Tests at NAVO MSRC and AFWA (executing community WRF Tests)
Several thousand runs; 7 regions; 8 physics configs
>1000 test runs; SW Asia at 15km; 18 physics configs
Performance results being tabulated; subjective review positive
DoD HPCMO funded $3M Navy/AF Distributed Center (fields two platforms to conduct WRF operational tests)
Test multiple system configurations
Determine configurations that best meet DoD and service unique mesoscale NWP requirements
Test operationally capable mesoscale ensemble runs
Prototype and test Grid Computing concepts

- Running WRF V1.2 /1.3 Retrospective Tests at NAVO MSRC and AFWA (executing community WRF Tests)
- Several thousand runs; 7 regions; 8 physics configs
- >1000 test runs; SW Asia at 15km; 18 physics configs
- Performance results being tabulated; subjective review positive
- DoD HPCMO funded $3M Navy/AF Distributed Center (fields two platforms to conduct WRF operational tests)
- Test multiple system configurations
- Determine configurations that best meet DoD and service unique mesoscale NWP requirements
- Test operationally capable mesoscale ensemble runs
- Prototype and test Grid Computing concepts

**Next NWP Environment: WRF**

## 2004

**Next NWP Environment: WRF**

## WRF Visualizations--Isabel

**WRF Visualizations--Isabel**

**18 Sep 03/1500Z**
- AFWA WRF 15km Model Run       20030918 00Z
- Valid 18/1500Z

## Next NWP Environment: WRF

**2005**
- WRF IOC: 1 April
- Advanced Data Assimilation System Goals
- Add direct radiance data assimilation to WRF-3DVAR
- Exploit emerging satellite data (MODIS, NPP, NPOESS, etc.)
- Improve utilization of existing data; incorporate non-conventional data; WRF-4DVAR

## Summary 

**The Air Force has a solid position in NWP history and is well poised for the future.  Since the inception of operational use, the Air Force has put and continues to put its emphasis on providing highest quality tailored weather products and decision aids for warfighting operations.**

## Questions?

***Questions?***