# Presentation: 930899

## 3rd Meeting of the Science Advisory Board 

**3rd Meeting of the Science Advisory Board **
**of the NOAA Climate Test Bed**
**(28-29 August 2007, Silver Spring, MD**

- http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb/

**Notes:**
Key information gaps:

- Influence of land surface properties (e.g., soil moisture, snow, vegetation,  topography)

- Impact of global ocean conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature, sea ice, salinity, currents)

- Variability of climate modes (e.g., MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, interdecadal variations)

- Understanding the warm season climate system and its predictability

## Review CTB Reply to SAB and Incorporate

**Objectives and Expected Outcome**

** ****Objectives**
** ****to review progress on CTB science priorities and previous SAB recommendations; **
** ****to obtain advice on short-term (FY08-FY09) and long-term (next 5 years and beyond) science priorities.*** *** **
** ****Expected Outcome**
** ****SAB Written Report  with advice and recommendations**
** ****- address specific issues raised here & in the Interim Meeting report **

## 3rd CTB Science Advisory Board MeetingSilver Spring, MD August 28-29, 2007

**3rd CTB Science Advisory Board Meeting****Silver Spring, MD A****ugust 28-29, 2007**

_**Tuesday, August 28, 2007**_
**8:00 a.m. SAB Executive Session / Continental Breakfast**
**SESSION 1: CTB OVERVIEW (Chairperson: Wayne Higgins)**
**9:00 a.m.****	****	****Welcome, Objectives and Issues for SAB  – Wayne Higgins**
**9:15 a.m. ****	****CFS as a National Model – Louis Uccellini**
**9:45 a.m. ****	****CTB computer resources / CFSRR Project  – Hualu Pan**
**10:00 a.m.****	****ARC Contributions to the CTB – Jim Kinter**
**10:15 a.m. ****	*****Break***
**SESSION 2: MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLES (Chairperson: Suranjana Saha)**
**10:30 a.m. ****	****An overview of CTB MME activities at NCEP – Suru Saha  ****10:50 a.m.  ****	****MME with DEM3 and GFDL – Huug van den Dool  ****11:10 a.m.      ****	****Assessment of consolidation strategies for SST monthly**
**	****	****forecasts for MME*** ***- Malaquias Peña  ****11:30 a.m. ****	****Consolidation of Official forecasts at CPC – David Unger  **
**11:50 a.m. ****	****NASA Plans for MME – Michele Rienecker ****12:10 a.m.  ****	****MME Discussion**
**12:30 p.m. ****	*****Lunch***

**Notes:**
The science presentations during the 3rd CTB SAB meeting will be focused on the priorities, gaps, alternative solutions and questions raised in section 2 of this report.  We propose that roughly 1 day be devoted to the science presentations, with roughly 1⁄2 day for a SAB Executive Session and another 1⁄2 day for SAB closed meetings with CTB Team Chairs, the CTB Oversight Board, and Exit Interviews. 

## 3nd CTB Science Advisory Board MeetingSilver Spring, MD August 28-29, 2007

**3nd CTB Science Advisory Board Meeting****Silver Spring, MD A****ugust 28-29, 2007**

_**Tuesday, August 28, 2007**_
**SESSION 3: CFS TESTING AND EVALUATION (Chairpersons: J. Schemm and S. Moorthi)**
**1:30 p.m.****	****	****Synthesis of FY07 Experiments and Role of TPT during FY08 in CFS ****	****	****Reanalysis and Reforecasting – Jae Schemm and Shrinivas Moorthi**
**1:50 p.m.****	****	****Neural Network Emulations of Model Physics – Michael Fox Rabinovitz **
**2:10 p.m.****	****	****Using Initial Tendency Errors to Reduce Systematic Errors – Tim DelSole**
**2:30 p.m.****	****	****CFS Discussion**
**2:45 p.m.****	****	*****Break***
**SESSION 4: CLIMATE FORECAST PRODUCTS AND SERVICES (Chairperson: Ed O’Lenic)**
**3:00 p.m.****	****	****An Evolving List of Climate Forecast Products – Ed O’lenic **
**3:20 p.m.****	****	****Drought Monitoring and Prediction – Kingtse Mo**
**3:40 p.m.****	****	****Recent Tropical Pacific ENSO Cycles:  Argo Analysis, GODAS and CFS**
**	****	****Prediction – Michael McPhaden and Dongxiao Zhang**
**4:00 p.m.****	****	****CTB-CPC-CSD Collaboration – Robert Livezey**
**4:20 p.m.****	****	****Climate Forecast Products Discussion**
**5:00 p.m.****	****	****SAB Executive Session (closed)**
**5:30 p.m.****	****	****Break**
**6:00 p.m. ****	****SAB Executive Session (closed) – Working dinner (provided) to draft **
**	****	****responses to CTB questions**

**Notes:**
The science presentations during the 3rd CTB SAB meeting will be focused on the priorities, gaps, alternative solutions and questions raised in section 2 of this report.  We propose that roughly 1 day be devoted to the science presentations, with roughly 1⁄2 day for a SAB Executive Session and another 1⁄2 day for SAB closed meetings with CTB Team Chairs, the CTB Oversight Board, and Exit Interviews. 

## 3nd CTB Science Advisory Board MeetingSilver Spring, MD August 28-29, 2007

**3nd CTB Science Advisory Board Meeting****Silver Spring, MD A****ugust 28-29, 2007**

_**Wednesday, August 29, 2007**_
**8:00 a.m. SAB Executive Session / Continental Breakfast**
**SESSION 5: CTB ADMINISTRATION (Chairperson: Wayne Higgins)**
**9:00 a.m.****	****	****CTB Grants Program / O2R Concept – Ken Mooney  **
**9:15 a.m.****	****	****CTB Budget and Tracking CTB Tasks – Mel Gelman  **
**9:30 a.m.****	****	****Future of CTB Teams  –Siegfried Schubert and Hualu Pan*** *
**SESSION 6: SAB DISCUSSIONS AND ADVICE (Chairperson: Tony Busalacchi)**
**9:45 a.m. ****	****Discussion with TPT Chairs (Saha, Moorthi, Schemm, O’lenic) and CST**
**                ****	****Chair (Schubert) without CTB Management (closed) – Tony Busalacchi**
**10:15 a.m.****	****Discussion with Oversight Board (Koblinsky, Uccellini, Kumar, et al.) – ****	****	****Tony Busalacchi  **
**11:00 a.m. ****	****Exit Interview with CTB Management and Oversight Board – **
**	****	****Tony Busalacchi  **
**12:00 p.m.****	****End of Meeting*** *
***Speakers:  Please use 2/3******rd****** of your allotted time (or less) for presentations, and 1/3******rd****** of your allotted time (or more) for questions and exchange***

## Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP

-  **Climate Forecast System:** first dynamic operational climate forecast model (implemented Aug 2004)
-  **Climate Test Bed:** established in 2005, focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products
-  **Unprecedented increases** **in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks**                                          (20% or more; O’lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool).

**Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP**

##  Climate Forecast System:  First dynamic operational climate forecast model implemented August 2004

-  Climate Forecast System:  First dynamic operational climate forecast model implemented August 2004
-  Climate Test Bed established in 2005, focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products
-  CTB FY07 milestones (e.g. objective consolidation tool) helped make it happen

**(0.5 Month Lead – 4 yr running avg vs. GPRA Goal)**

## NCEP / CTB Successes (FY07)

** ****Official Forecast Product Improvements:**
- An objective consolidation tool that contributed to improved skill of CPC official US seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts;
- An objective verification system for CPC official 6-10 day, 8-14 day, monthly and seasonal US temperature and precipitation forecasts.
- ECMWF management has recommended to the EC council that CFS be included as a member of their seasonal forecast models (e.g. for MME) (NCEP and CTB).
**Tools for Evaluation of Future Model Improvements:**
- A standard suite of diagnostics for evaluation of potential CFS/GFS upgrades; Atlas
- Twice Daily CFS hindcasts (1981-present) on public server;
- A 25-year Global Land Data Assimilation System run for use in hindcast experiments.
**Improvements to ocean-atmosphere-land components of CFS: **
- A long term erroneous temperature error in the operational Global Ocean Data Assimilation System was eliminated;
- A new land surface model (Noah) was coupled to CFS and tested.
**Note: NOAA CPO support contributed directly to these accomplishments.**

**Notes:**
Waiting for reply from TPT chairs on FY07 successes

## Due in part to early CTB successes, NCEP is poised to make significant advancements with the next upgrade of CFS and work this within an MME framework. 

Consequently, the CTB has adopted the following priorities:
 Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the O2R and R2O paradigm
 Be a partner within the multi model ensemble enterprise
 Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process 
 Accelerate development of user-demanded climate forecast products

What are some of the issues where SAB advice is needed?

**Consequently, the CTB has adopted the following priorities:**
** ****Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the O2R and R2O paradigm**
** ****Be a partner within the multi model ensemble enterprise**
** ****Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process**** **
** ****Accelerate development of user-demanded climate forecast products**
**What are some of the issues where SAB advice is needed?**

**CTB Science Priorities**

## CFS Next: Issues for the SAB

**How should the CTB use its computing resources to help NCEP meet its goal for the next implementation of CFS?**
**What is the appropriate balance between AO-driven external projects and internal activities (such as CFSRR)?  Should this balance be determined by whether a project contributes to CFS next as opposed to CFS next + 1?**
** ****What procedures should the CTB use to ensure that its computing facility is equitably shared between external (competitive) and internal projects?   **** **

## MME: Issues for the SAB

**Has the CTB developed an effective MME implementation strategy?**
** ****Should CTB proceed with both International MME and National MME, and in what balance?**** **
**How can CTB influence development of a National Strategy for MME, and climate model development?**
**What happens if none of the MME models add additional skill to the CFS?*** *
**Does the CTB have the appropriate balance between MME and CFS activities?**

## Products and Services:                                         Issues for the SAB

**Are CTB efforts to link CPC with the user community developing appropriately?**
**What criteria should the CTB use in developing priorities for user-demanded climate products to be transitioned to operations?**
**How should the CTB work with CPC forecast operations to enhance the development and delivery of climate forecast products and services?**
**What should the CTB do to influence the research agenda of the research applications community in the longer term?**
**How should CTB measure success (e.g. number of new and improved products, economic impact, social utility, etc.)?**

**Notes:**
Decrease the # of questions

## Collaborative Transition Projects (CTB Competitive Grants Program)

**FY06 : Climate Forecast System**
**Using initial tendency errors to reduce systematic errors                                                        (PI: Delsole, COLA; Co-PI: Pan, EMC) **
**Neural network emulations of model physics                                                                              (PI: Rabinovitz, U. MD; Co-PI: Krasnapolsky, Saha EMC)**
**Ocean component of the NCEP ENSO CFS                                                                                (PI: McPhaden, PMEL; Co-PI: Xue, EMC) **
**FY07 : Climate Forecast Products**
**System-wide advancement of user-centric climate forecast products                                          (PI:  Hartmann (UAZ); Co-PI: Ed O’Lenic (CPC))**

## Climate Test Bed (CTB)
In FY 2008, NOAA is soliciting proposals to initiate CTB projects under the Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP) program.  Due to limited available funding, the priority areas for FY 2008 are focused on enhancing multi-model ensemble based forecasts, anchored by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, and on improving monthly-to-seasonal climate forecast products and applications, especially for drought. Priority areas include (note this is not a prioritized list):
1) Climate Forecast System Improvements;
2) Evaluation of Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts;
3) Improving Drought Prediction;
4) Enhancing Operational Drought Forecast Products and Applications, including those in NIDIS Pilot Regions and States.
An information sheet containing further details on FY 2008 CTB priorities can be found at http://...  For further information, investigators should contact Chet Ropelewski (Chet.Ropelewski@noaa.gov), 301-427-2381, fax: 301-427-2073).

**In FY 2008, NOAA is soliciting proposals to initiate CTB projects under the Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP) program.  Due to limited available funding, the priority areas for FY 2008 are focused on enhancing multi-model ensemble based forecasts, anchored by the NCEP Climate Forecast System, and on improving monthly-to-seasonal climate forecast products and applications, especially for drought. Priority areas include (note this is not a prioritized list):**
**1) Climate Forecast System Improvements;**
**2) Evaluation of Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts;**
**3) Improving Drought Prediction;**
**4) Enhancing Operational Drought Forecast Products and Applications, including those in NIDIS Pilot Regions and States.**
**An information sheet containing further details on FY 2008 CTB priorities can be found at http://...  For further information, investigators should contact Chet Ropelewski (**_**[Chet.Ropelewski@noaa.gov](mailto:Chet.Ropelewski@noaa.gov)**_**), 301-427-2381, fax: 301-427-2073).**

**CTB FY08 Federal Funding Opportunity**

**Update: The CTB received 40 LOI’s and **
**encouraged 23 projects for full proposals  **

## CTB Program to Facilitate Interactions between 
CPC & the Research Applications Community 

**CPC & the Research Applications Community **

**Purpose: to identify and develop user-demanded climate forecast  products**
**     **_**RISA**_**	**_**CPC Liaison**_**	****	**_**RISA Contact**_**	**_**RISA Visitor to CPC**_
**   ****SECC ****	****Muthuvel Chelliah ****	****	****James Jones****	****Guillermo Baigorria / ****	****	****	****	****	****	**** (May 07; Aug 07)**
**   ****PEAC/PaCIS****	****Luke He ****	****	****	****Eileen Shea**
**   ****Alaska ****	****Jon Gottschalck****	****	****Daniel White**
**   ****CAP****	****Kingtse Mo****	****	****Dan Cayan, Kelly Redmond**
**   ****CLIMAS****	****Ed O’lenic****	****	****Holly Hartmann**
**   ****WWA****	****Michelle L’Heureux****	****Andrea Ray**
**   ****CIG****	****Douglas LeComte****	****	****Dennis Lettenmaier**
**Exchange visits:****(i) CPC visits RISAs ******** customized overviews of CPC M-A-P products. ****(ii) RISAs visit CPC ********  develop customized products off CPC product suite.**

## FY08 CTB Priority for NIDIS-Drought

-  **New Drought  Monitoring products:**
* **Hydrologic conditions based on multi model ensemble NLDAS and regional reanalysis;*
-  **New Drought Forecast tools:**
* **Objective drought forecasts based on CFS and statistical tools; *
* **Improved seasonal forecasts based on improved land-atmosphere coupling;*
* **Improved medium-range prediction based on uncoupled downscaling of NAEFs*
-  **Improvements to Operational Drought Monitor & Outlook; **
** ****Contributions to NIDIS Portal and NIDIS Pilots. **

## Strategic Priorities 

**Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the O2R & R2O paradigm***** ***
**Be a partner within the multi model ensemble enterprise***** ***
**Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process**
**Address budget issues**

## Strategic Priorities 

**Specific Recommendations**
***CTB Director: A Shared OAR/CPO-NWS/NCEP Position at NCEP with responsibilities that include execution of the CTB competitive grants program ***
***Computing:  Install CFS on DOE computer for high resolution (e.g. T382) benchmarking***
***Support for move to University of Maryland  - overflow space***
***	******	******	******	******	******	***