# Presentation: 025275

## Back to the Future:  Learning from the Past About the Future of Energy Demand Data

- ASA Committee Presentation
- October 5, 2006
- Dwight K. French, Director
- Energy Consumption Division, EIA

## Necessary Disclaimer!!

- This is a working document prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in order to solicit advice and comment on statistical matters from the American Statistical Association Committee on Energy Statistics.  This topic will be discussed at EIA's fall 2006, meeting with the Committee to be held October 5 and 6, 2006.

## History of Energy Demand (Consumption) Data

- Sector-specific, across energy sources
- Limited Sectors
- Limited Energy Sources
- Limited Characteristics Information

**Notes:**
Specific programs are in individual sectors; across energy sources.  Supply surveys generally in individual energy sources, sectors not delineated in most surveys, so “across” sectors.

## Limited Sectors

- Covered:  Households, Commercial Buildings, Manufacturers, Household Vehicles (most recently derived data)
- Not Covered Sectors:  Transportation other than HH vehicles; agriculture, mining and construction; nonbuilding service activity
- Not Covered Within Covered Sectors – a myriad of exclusions, as minimal with respect to energy use as possible

## Limited Energy Sources

- Households – Electricity; Natural Gas; Fuel oil/kerosene; LPG, some wood info.  No coal, gasoline/propane for grills, or other exotics
- Commercial Buildings – Electricity; Natural Gas; Fuel Oil; District Heat.  No LPG, coal, or other exotics
- Manufacturers – Virtually all energy sources
- Household vehicles – gasoline/diesel, which accounts for virtually everything – now.

**Notes:**
Household vehicles, we don’t collect non-petroleum fuels, but it is such a negligible share as to be untrackable.

## Limited Characteristics

- Households –Lots not known about engineering of housing units that affects energy use, technical characteristics of systems/equipment; and use of systems/equipment
- Commercial Buildings – Lots not known about engineering of building structure, and number and type as well as technical characteristics of systems/equipment, and use of equipment, especially that contributing to plug load.
- Manufacturers – Virtually nothing collected about manufacturing processes, by agreement
- Household Vehicles – Nothing other than make/model/year from NHTS (though there is lots of information about vehicle use).

## Reasons for Limited Sectors

- Cost
- Not explicitly required in Law
- Perceived as unimportant (not THAT large a share of energy use)
- Difficulty in accessing sector/burden concerns

## Reasons for Limited Energy Sources

- Difficult to obtain information
- Cost
- Sample sizes for surveys don’t support measurement for rarer energy sources
- Some sources don’t amount to much relative to the major ones

## Reasons for Limited Characteristics

- Respondents can’t answer questions due to ignorance of technical issues or because data simply are not readily available.
- Burden control on survey forms
- Cost (somewhat of a red herring here)
- Even if we had more information, relating it to energy use would be a demanding derivation/modeling exercise

## How Could the Consumption AreaAddress Limitations?

- New survey initiatives
- New questions on existing surveys
- Research studies/engineering assessments
- Collect and compile pertinent data from other studies to complement our own data
- Specialized derivations/assessments, especially for energy measures
- All these require some amount of resources and entail some amount of risk or known quality compromises

**Notes:**
Examples:  	New RTECS with diaries
	Deriving commercial highway transport data from VIUS
	Gathering vacation home data/boat data as an adjunct to RECS
	Recruiting a certain number of retired engineers as interviewers to gather more complex data
	Change survey logistics to get less data more frequently
	Localized customer studies to get vacation home/commercial nonbuilding data

## What do You Think???

- What do the committee members think are the most important data for the Consumption Area to collect and publish?
- What would be the best ways to meet program priorities, given that EIA expects limited additional resources to be provided to the program in the future?
- Across programs, what criteria are most appropriate for EIA to use when deciding among competing needs for resources?