# Presentation: 108890

## DWFE Precipitation Verification

- QC issues
- Some early results
- Verification web pages

**RTVS Verification:***   **www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/wrf/DWFE/*

- Presented by Andrew F. Loughe, NOAA / OAR / FSL / AD / FVB / RTVS

## QC Issues from 21JAN – 02FEB

- Issues regarding availability of data for creating lists of QC’d precip stations.
- Distance calculation error affected the lat/lon value associated with the stations.

## Observations for RTVS DWFE precip DB

**Observations for RTVS DWFE precip DB**

- JAN 10th
-  2,400 obs from HADS

- JAN 21st
- 4,500 obs       	 (added QC’d stations)

- FEB 02nd
- Found Dist. Prob.

- Determined that impact of Dist. Prob. was minimal.
- Created new RTVS database

- FEB 11th

**Timeline of development**

**Testing period for errors**

**Background Information**

## Expanded observations for verification

- JAN 10th
- 4,500 obs from HADS

- FEB 15th

- The new database is now _fully populated_ with the expanded HADS QC’d data with corrected positions throughout!

**Web tables confirm number of stations being used.**

## What was the impact of the Distance Calculation Problem?  ETS  (2nd decimal place)

**Errors less than 0.1... mostly smaller than this.**

**Data availability issues**

**(2)**

**(1)**

**(3)**

## What was the impact of the Distance Calculation Problem?  Bias (2nd decimal place)

**What was the impact of the Distance Calculation Problem?  **_***Bias***_** *****(2nd decimal place)***

**Errors less than 0.1... mostly smaller than this.**

**Data availability issues**

**(1)**

**(2)**

**(3)**

## Some initial findings from the overall numbers.   ETS         Eta   NMM   ARW

*Y-axes not normalized.  View results within each plot itself.*
**Eta** model performs better at low thresholds for all forecast lengths.
- Above the 0.5 inch threshold, the **ARW** and **NMM** skill score generally higher.

- 6hr FCST

- 12hr FCST

- 24hr FCST

- 48hr FCST

- 10 JAN – 13 FEB

- ETS

- ETS

- ETS

- ETS

- Threshold (in.)

- Threshold (in.)

## Some initial findings from the gross numbers.    BIAS        Eta   NMM   ARW

- 10 JAN – 13 FEB

- Frequency Bias is often large for small thresholds.  Drops off quickly for **Eta** model.
- WRF models willing to forecast precipitation at the larger thresholds.
- Biases equally good for the **NMM** and **ARW** models (near 1.0).

- Bias

- Bias

- Bias

- Bias

- Threshold (in.)

- Threshold (in.)

- Threshold (in.)

- Threshold (in.)

- 6hr FCST

- 12hr FCST

- 24hr FCST

- 48hr FCST

## DWFE Verification Tool Confirms that the WRF NMM is on par with the operational eta model.

- _DWFE Verification Tool_ Confirms that the WRF NMM is *on par* with the operational eta model.

- 500 hPa HGHT Timeseries

- Correlation

- MAE

** ****WRF NMM**
** ****Eta  (operational)**

## 1000 hPa TEMP Timeseries

- Diurnal Variation in SLP FCST errors

** ****WRF NMM**
** ****Eta  (operational)**

- Bias

- RMSE

- Time Averaged Bias

- Time Averaged RMSE

## Please visit the RTVS DWFE verification page again soon!

**www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/wrf/DWFE/**

- Link to DWFE precip verification page

- Link to DWFE telecon presentations

## Follow the link... precipitation verification tool!

**www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/wrf/DWFE/station/**

## Coming soon:  a link to our  model verification tool!

## Main RTVS Web Page

**DWFE Link**

**www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/**