# Presentation: 474527

## Overall Schedule, Cost Estimate & Resources for 3.9GHz DESY Cryomodule

- Tug Arkan
- November 8, 2005

## Project Schedule
Assumptions
Optimistic detailed schedule
Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
Critical Tasks, What-if Scenarios
Project Cost Estimates
Assumptions
FY06 & FY07 M&S and FTE estimates
Detailed work packages & resources estimates
Cost Drivers

- Project Schedule
- Assumptions
- Optimistic detailed schedule
- Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
- Critical Tasks, What-if Scenarios
- Project Cost Estimates
- Assumptions
- FY06 & FY07 M&S and FTE estimates
- Detailed work packages & resources estimates
- Cost Drivers

## The assumptions for the optimistic schedule are below: 
For Cavity Processing & Testing:
5 technicians are available 100% of the time by the time cavity #2 (prototype) arrives.
 No shutdown obligations were considered. 
As many as 4 cavities are being processed in parallel at a time. 
Horizontal testing is equivalent in time and effort to vertical testing. 
All time gaps due to the delay in coupler delivery were removed.  (Continue to process other cavities while waiting for the couplers.)
No re-processing is required. 
Additional technicians are available to assemble/clean/process the couplers. 
No systematic problems. (UPW system, HPR, etc. operate 100% of the time) 
For Design Work:
2 designers/drafters and 1 engineer are available 100% of the time until February 2006 to finish the cryomodule and assembly tooling design work.
Parts Procurement:
6 Power couplers are received from CPI by the middle of March 2006. 
Infrastructure Setup:
Power Coupler Processing test stand is designed, procured and installed by the middle of March 2006.
Horizontal Test stand infrastructure is procured and installed by the end of March 2006.

**The assumptions for the ****optimistic**** schedule are below:**
***For Cavity Processing & Testing:***
- 5 technicians are available 100% of the time by the time cavity #2 (prototype) arrives.
-  No shutdown obligations were considered.
- As many as 4 cavities are being processed in parallel at a time.
- Horizontal testing is equivalent in time and effort to vertical testing.
- All time gaps due to the delay in coupler delivery were removed.  (Continue to process other cavities while waiting for the couplers.)
- No re-processing is required.
- Additional technicians are available to assemble/clean/process the couplers.
- No systematic problems. (UPW system, HPR, etc. operate 100% of the time)
***For Design Work:***
- 2 designers/drafters and 1 engineer are available 100% of the time until February 2006 to finish the cryomodule and assembly tooling design work.
***Parts Procurement:***
- 6 Power couplers are received from CPI by the middle of March 2006.
***Infrastructure Setup:***
- Power Coupler Processing test stand is designed, procured and installed by the middle of March 2006.
- Horizontal Test stand infrastructure is procured and installed by the end of March 2006.

## A realistic schedule would add time for the following: 
1 additional process & cold test per cavity = 8 wks
Systematic failures/delays = 3 wks 
Additional time is required for horizontal testing, especially in the beginning = 4 wks 

A pessimistic schedule would add time to the realistic schedule for the following: 
Technicians not available during Shutdown:  14wks 
1 additional process and cold test/cavity:  2.5 wks/cavity = 8 wks  

**A ****realistic**** schedule would add time for the following:**
- 1 additional process & cold test per cavity = 8 wks
- Systematic failures/delays = 3 wks
- Additional time is required for horizontal testing, especially in the beginning = 4 wks
**A ****pessimistic**** schedule would add time to the realistic schedule for the following:**
- Technicians not available during Shutdown:  14wks
- 1 additional process and cold test/cavity:  2.5 wks/cavity = 8 wks

## A resource loaded MS Project schedule is developed:

- A resource loaded MS Project schedule is developed:

**Cryomodule Completion Date: January 2007**

## Work Breakdown Structure

## Critical Tasks - I

## Procurement of 6 Power Couplers from CPI
Assemble & Process Couplers:
Infrastructure setup for Power Couplers: Mechanical Assembly & High Power Processing Stand
Cavity Processing
Cavity Assembly 
Cryomodule Final Assembly

**Procurement of 6 Power Couplers from CPI**
**Assemble & Process Couplers:**
**Infrastructure setup for Power Couplers: Mechanical Assembly & High Power Processing Stand**
- Cavity Processing
- Cavity Assembly
- Cryomodule Final Assembly

## Acquisition of Power Couplers (Critical Task):
Design completed on: 10/14/05
Procurement started on: 10/24/05
Current Status: Awaiting quotation from CPI
From earlier meetings with CPI, it is stated that 3.9GHz couplers are simpler design than TESLA couplers
Expected acquisition time: 4 to 5 months
5 months is used for MS Project schedule development
Expected receiving on: 03/23/05
Project completion is: January 23, 2007

- Acquisition of Power Couplers (Critical Task):
- Design completed on: 10/14/05
- Procurement started on: 10/24/05
- Current Status: Awaiting quotation from CPI
- From earlier meetings with CPI, it is stated that 3.9GHz couplers are simpler design than TESLA couplers
- Expected acquisition time: 4 to 5 months
- 5 months is used for MS Project schedule development
- Expected receiving on: 03/23/05
- Project completion is: January 23, 2007

## What if we receive the couplers from CPI 1 month earlier: (--in 4 months)
Receive on 2/23/05
Assembly and Processing Infrastructure is ready on: 2/23/05 (3 weeks earlier than the optimistic schedule date)
Horizontal Test Stand Infrastructure is ready on 3/31/05 (as stated on the optimistic schedule)
Project completion is: December 26, 2006 (approx. 1 month earlier)

- What if we receive the couplers from CPI 1 month earlier: *(--in 4 months)*
- Receive on 2/23/05
- Assembly and Processing Infrastructure is ready on: 2/23/05 (3 weeks earlier than the optimistic schedule date)
- Horizontal Test Stand Infrastructure is ready on 3/31/05 (as stated on the optimistic schedule)
- Project completion is: December 26, 2006 (approx. 1 month earlier)

## Cavities expected receiving order:
2 Prototype Cavities (Cavity #1 and #2)
4 Cavities from JLab (Cavity #3, #4, #5 and #6)
2 spare Cavities (Cavity #7 and #8)
The optimistic schedule assumes that cavity string assembly starts after the processing & testing of Cavity #6 is completed.
Cavity #1 prototype will be used to shake down the processing & testing infrastructure
What if Cavity #2 prototype is acceptable to be installed into the 4 cavity string: 
Then, cavity string assembly can start after the processing & testing of Cavity #5 is completed
Project completion is: December 23, 2006 (approx. 1 month earlier)

- Cavities expected receiving order:
- 2 Prototype Cavities (Cavity #1 and #2)
- 4 Cavities from JLab (Cavity #3, #4, #5 and #6)
- 2 spare Cavities (Cavity #7 and #8)
- The optimistic schedule assumes that cavity string assembly starts after the processing & testing of Cavity #6 is completed.
- Cavity #1 prototype will be used to shake down the processing & testing infrastructure
- What if Cavity #2 prototype is acceptable to be installed into the 4 cavity string:
- Then, cavity string assembly can start after the processing & testing of Cavity #5 is completed
- Project completion is: December 23, 2006 (approx. 1 month earlier)

## What if receive the power couplers 1 month earlier from the vendor, the coupler processing stand infrastructure is ready by then and the cavity string assembly can start after the processing & testing of Cavity #5:
Project Completion is: November 23, 2005 (2 months earlier)

- What if receive the power couplers 1 month earlier from the vendor, the coupler processing stand infrastructure is ready by then and the cavity string assembly can start after the processing & testing of Cavity #5:
- Project Completion is: November 23, 2005 (2 months earlier)

## Cost estimate is developed in a WBS format (Excel).
Component cost estimates are mostly detailed engineering estimates and high level guesstimates.
Due to the schedule pressure and/or state-of-the-art parts, some components need to be sole sourced.
3.9GHz Cryomodule cold mass (supports, shielding, cryogenic piping etc.) and vacuum vessel cost estimates are scaled from 1.3GHz cryomodule vendor cost estimates (done for Proton Driver R&D).
Costs are shown in 2005 dollars without G&A or contingency.
Labor estimates are based on FTE. No SWF is calculated.
FTE counts are based on the engineering estimates and from the past similar work at DESY and JLab.
Horizontal Test Stand and Joint BCP Facility @ ANL Infrastructure costs are not included. Coupler processing stand infrastructure cost is included.

- Cost estimate is developed in a WBS format (Excel).
- Component cost estimates are mostly detailed engineering estimates and high level guesstimates.
- Due to the schedule pressure and/or state-of-the-art parts, some components need to be sole sourced.
- 3.9GHz Cryomodule cold mass (supports, shielding, cryogenic piping etc.) and vacuum vessel cost estimates are scaled from 1.3GHz cryomodule vendor cost estimates (done for Proton Driver R&D).
- Costs are shown in 2005 dollars without G&A or contingency.
- Labor estimates are based on FTE. No SWF is calculated.
- FTE counts are based on the engineering estimates and from the past similar work at DESY and JLab.
- Horizontal Test Stand and Joint BCP Facility @ ANL Infrastructure costs are _not included_. Coupler processing stand infrastructure cost _is included_.

## FY06-FY07 Project Cost Estimate

- Total : approx.  approx.19 FTE-year

- Total remaining M&S needed to complete the project: $692K

## Cost Breakdown - I

**Cost Breakdown - I**

- Total :1 FTE-year,   M&S = $0, Expected completion: End of January 06

***Engineering Design & Drawings***

## Cost Breakdown - II

- Total : 0.8 FTE-year  M&S = $427K

***Procurement & Parts Acquisition***

## Cost Breakdown - III

***New Infrastructure Setup & Maintenance. Available Infrastructure Upgrade & Operations***

- Total :10 FTE-year  M&S = $150K

## Cost Breakdown - IV

- Total : 7 FTE-year  M&S = $115K

***Cryomodule Mechanical Assembly***

## FTE Resource Allocation

**It is assumed that all the required FTE’s are available 100% of the time when they are needed.**
**FTE Allocation for each task was done with MS Project schedule.**
**There are no over-allocated FTE resources. **
**Cavity Processing & Testing tasks require the highest FTE technicians amount for 10 months in FY06.**
**Available FTE resource names were entered.**
**Needed but not currently available FTE technician resources were entered as Ti, i=1 to n**

## The project is currently on schedule for FY06
Resources need to be available when required to keep the project on schedule:
19 FTE* year, $692K M&S for the remainder of the work in FY06 and FY07
Cavity Processing & Testing Technicians are 100% of the time available for 10 months in FY06
With the optimistic assumptions, the 3.9GHz DESY cryomodule will arrive to DESY on January 23, 2007
Realistic: April 2007
Pessimistic: October 2007

- The project is currently on schedule for FY06
- Resources need to be available when required to keep the project on schedule:
- 19 FTE* year, $692K M&S for the remainder of the work in FY06 and FY07
- Cavity Processing & Testing Technicians are 100% of the time available for 10 months in FY06
- With the optimistic assumptions, the 3.9GHz DESY cryomodule will arrive to DESY on January 23, 2007
- Realistic: April 2007
- Pessimistic: October 2007