# Presentation: 833788

## NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOPJanuary 17-19 2006, NCEP  DRAFT RECOMMENDATIONS Based on presentations, discussions and follow-up considerationsMarch 31 2006

## OUTLINE

- Logistics
- Summary recommendations
- Specific recommendations
- Adaptive collection & use of observations
- Ensemble-based data assimilation
- Representing model errors in ensemble forecasting
- Numerical modeling for high impact weather forecasting
- Socio-economic applications / IPY
- Background

## NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP - LOGISTICS

- First NOAA THORPEX Science Workshop
- 17-19 January 2006, NCEP
- 68 attendees including
- All 12 NOAA THORPEX PIs
- 10 teleconference participants
- 11 students / postdocs
- Goals
- Review progress in PI’s research and related work
- Connect research & operations
- Sessions on
- Ensemble-based data assimilation (Tue)
- Representing model errors in ensemble forecasting (Wed am)
- High-impact modeling / Weather-climate link (Wed pm)
- Adaptive collection & use of observations (Thurs am)
- Socio-economic applications / International Polar Year (Thurs pm)
- Healthy interaction among scientists from
- Different research areas
- Research vs. operations
- All presentations available at:
- http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/THORPEX/PI-shop-2006.html

## NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP - SUMMARY

- Overall assessment
- Significant progress in THORPEX research
- Great interest from broad community within & outside NOAA
- Immediate challenges
- Maintain / further develop interaction in various research focus areas
- Establish NOAA THORPEX Working Groups
- Lay out transition path from research to operations
- Wide ranging THORPEX global observing/DA/forecasting/application activities
- Scale of foreseen new transition work never before experienced
- Establish / maintain 2-way links between research & operations
- Formulate criteria for consideration for operational implementation
- Logistics – 	Codes / scripts / operational job flow considerations
- Quality – 	Verification / evaluation standards – Provide benchmarks
- Focus on group projects instead of individual efforts
- Most efficient - Filtering of ideas - Greatest payoff
- Formalize transition process
- Establish contact points for each research area at NCEP
- Acknowledge contributions whether or not accepted directly into operations
- Resource requirement (support transition activities at NCEP)
- Long-term outlook
- Maintain successful collaboration with PIs beyond FY2006
- Needed for technology transfer
- Continue NOAA research grant program beyond current 3-yr cycle
- Contingent upon NOAA budget
- PIs encouraged to explore other funding opportunities & maintain ties with NOAA
- Follow-up meetings
- Organize NOAA THORPEX workshop biennially – Needed for cross fertilization
- Hold Working Group meetings in off-years – Detailed planning / working sessions

## NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP – RESEARCH AREAS

***ADAPTIVE COLLECTION / USE OF OBSERVATIONS***
- Observing system for global NWP is a sub-system of GEOSS
- Design of enhanced observing network
- Adaptive collection & use of satellite & in situ observations
- Four related NOAA THORPEX PI studies
- Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) at NOAA
- Establish Global Test Center functionality
- For testing new observing, DA, NWP/Ens, & application procedures
- Facilitate use of real vs. simulated quasi-operational environment by PIs
- Under JCSDA
- Tentative timeline
- Studies commenced					July 2004
- Continue research studies
- Establish Working Group on adaptive observations		Oct 2006
- Develop adaptive radiosonde plan with NWS			Nov 2006
- Complete preliminary study				Nov 2008
- Complete algorithm development			Nov 2009
- Complete operational implementation			Nov 2010
- Provide access to Global Test Center
- Real quasi-operational obs/DA/NWP system		Oct 2007
- Simulated (OSSE) system				May 2009
- Field experiments
- AMMA adaptive driftsonde obs / data impact		Dec 2006
- PARC/IPY adaptive aircraft / driftsonde obs / data impact	June 2009

## NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP – RESEARCH AREAS

***ENSEMBLE-BASED DATA ASSIMILATION***
- Ensemble-based data assimilation inter-comparison project
- Most developed NOAA THORPEX research project
- 3rd related workshop (following dedicated workshops in 1999 & 2003)
- 4 grants + an unfunded collaborator
- Tentative timeline
- Project started						July 2004
- Continue comparative development / evaluation / testing
- Start developing prototype ensemble-based DA scheme	 Jan 2007
- Synthesis of successful science/software PI initiatives
- Built on ESRL computers?
- Compatible with NCEP operational system
- Allows direct transition to NCEP
- Further testing on ESRL computers starts			Jan 2008
- Decision point						Dec 2008
- Parallel testing starts at NCEP to prepare to either
- Implement new combined DA/ensemble system ***OR***
- Enhance 3/4DVAR with improved ensemble information
- “Hybrid” method based on comp. Purser-Hamill-Zupanski
- Operational implementation				Jan 2010

## NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP – RESEARCH AREAS

***REPRESENTING MODEL ERRORS IN ENSEMBLE FCSTING***
- Relatively new research area
- New paradigm needed in NWP modeling
- Move from “best single solution” of past to
- “Encompass all possible solutions” in ensemble era
- Represent all model related uncertainty
- “Truncation related” random errors – stochastic perturbations
- “Systematic” errors – randomly vary model parameters, components, etc
- Strong interaction with NWP modelers is important
- Promising results presented
- Results form basis of more substantive collaboration among PIs
- 2 NOAA THORPEX PIs
- 3 other NOAA studies
- Tentative timeline
- Studies commenced					July 2004
- Continue research studies
- Start collaborative project on representing model errors	Oct 2006
- Develop straw-person plan for possible operational use	July 2007

## NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP – RESEARCH AREAS

***NUMERICAL MODELING FOR HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FORECASTING***
- Study best approach to regionally increasing model resolution
- Enhanced resolution global, or regional Limited Area Model approach?
- One NOAA THORPEX PI on enhanced resolution – quality, costs?
- High impact modeling application
- Related (not THORPEX funded) NOAA efforts
- Sea ice modeling; Ocean wave ensemble; Snow pack / land state modeling
- River flow applications – link with HEPEX
- Weather/climate links in regional modeling (WRF)
- Link with International Polar Year developments
- New forecast applications
- Incorporate mature elements in NAEFS
- Some tools to be tested during IPY (Mar 07 – Feb 09) if possible
- Tentative timeline
- Studies started						July 2004
- Continue research/development
- Form Working Group					Feb 2007
- Adaptive grid modeling - Initial report				Dec 2006
- Further evaluate global/regional modeling options		Dec 2008
- Decision on use of adaptive global ***OR*** LAM approach		Dec 2010
- Operational implementation in NAEFS for high impact forecasting	Dec 2012
- High impact modeling
- Ocean Wave Ensemble – Operational implementation at NCEP	June 2006
- NAEFS implementation (Canada)			June 2008?
- Sea ice / snow pack / land surface model development		Continual
- NAEFS implementation				As available
- River flow modeling feasibility study over CONUS		Feb 2008
- Global application study				Feb 2010

## NOAA THORPEX PI WORKSHOP – RESEARCH AREAS

***SOCIO-ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS / IPY***
- Analysis of US household use of and benefit from weather forecasts
- One NOAA THORPEX PI study
- Need analysis of benefits for various economic sectors, eg, water management
- NAEFS forecast applications during IPY & in general – Great interest
- NCEP Service Center & Alaska Region participation
- NAEFS is operational delivery mechanism for all THORPEX research
- Statistical bias correction
- Addition of FNMOC (and possibly JMA, UKMET)
- Additional high impact products (eg, freezing spray)
- THORPEX baseline and performance targets linked with NAEFS
-  Long term plan – Automatic production of prob. fcsts, with human inspection
- Communicating forecast uncertainty
- Roundtable discussion
- Addition of forecasts associated with 10 & 90 percentiles in forecast pdf recommended
- Fields to be offered for inclusion in NDGD
- Tentative timeline
- Studies commenced					July 2004
- Continue research / development studies
- Establish Working Group on Applications			May 2006
- Links with NAEFS
- Establish THORPEX performance measures		Nov 2006
- Uncertainty estimates for NDGD				May 2007
- IPY applications					Mar 2008
- Feedback to NAEFS product development			Continuous
- Sector specific benefit analysis (partner with SIP/NCAR)		Continuous
- Analysis of THORPEX incremental forecast improvements		To be scheduled
- Associated costs and benefits

## BACKGROUND

## WHAT IS THORPEX?

*10-YEAR WMO-SPONSORED RESEARCH PROGRAM*
- OBJECTIVE:
- Accelerate improvements in skill & utility of 1-14 day high impact weather forecasts
- Weather forecast component of GEOSS
- RESEARCH AREAS:
- Observing System
- Data Assimilation
- Predictability / NWP
- Socioeconomic Applications
- APPROACH:
- Enhanced collaboration on national, regional, & international levels
- Between research and operational communities
- Among experts working on four components of forecast process
- Within operational community – Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)
- ORGANIZATION:
- International level – Under WMO; IPO, 6 WGs, etc – Michel Beland & David Burridge
- North America – Regional Committee – Pierre Gauthier & David Parsons
- National level – US Program Office – Rick Rosen & David Parsons
- NOAA – Under Weather & Water Goal, ST&I - Marty Ralph & Zoltan Toth

## NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM

- FOCUS:
- Accelerate improvements in 3-14 day high impact probabilistic weather forecasts
- ORGANIZATION:
- Under Weather & Water Goal, ST&I, with link to EMP & LFW
- NOAA THORPEX Executive Council – Rick Rosen
- NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee – Zoltan Toth
- APPROACH:
- Grants – External community (12 NOAA grants)
- Directed research  - NOAA Labs
- Transition to operations – Global Test Center (JCSDA link), NCEP - NAEFS
- Weather – Climate link
- FUNDING:
- $1.23M (Current); $2.3M (President’s request); $5M (Goal)

## PATH FROM THORPEX RESEARCH TO NOAA OPERATIONS

***BASIC RESEARCH***

***APPLIED RESEARCH***

***TRANSITION TO OPERATIONS***

***NOAA OPERATIONS***

***Answer Science Questions***

***Develop Methods***

***Prepare for Implementation***

***Generate Products***

***External investigators***

***NOAA Laboratories***

***Global Test Center / NCEP***

***NCEP Central Operations***

**PHASE**

**What?**

**Who?**

***NSF, DOD, NASA***

***NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM***

***NOAA NWS***

**Financial Support?**

## NOAA THORPEX RESEARCH GRANTS

- University groups	5
- NCAR 		1
- Private sector	2

**GRANTS DISTRIBUTION**

- NASA		1 (0)
- ONR/NRL 		2
- NOAA		1 (2)

## NOAA THORPEX ACTIVITIES

- RESEARCH PROJECTS:
- Adaptive collection & use of observations (PARC, OSSE)	*Thurs am*
- Ensemble-based data assimilation				*Tue am-pm*
- Representing model errors in ensemble forecasting		*Wedn am*
- High impact modeling (enhanced resol., sea ice / wave, etc)  	*Wedn pm*
- Socioeconomic applications (IPY)				*Thurs pm*
- PATH TO OPERATIONS:
- North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
- MSC–NMSM–NWS multi-center ensemble
- Operational implementation in March/April 2006
- Prototype / component of future international GIFS system
- ESMF connection
***All research must directly connect with NAEFS system***
- PERFORMANCE MEASURE:
- Rate of improvement doubled in ***NAEFS probabilistic forecast scores***
- PQPF
- Extreme temperature
- Severe weather
- Tropical storm

## EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS:

*Why forecast signal is lost beyond 10-day lead time?*
- How can predictability be extended?
- Better/more observations?
- Better data assimilation scheme?
- Better numerical model?
- Better ensemble techniques?

**EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS:**

***ANIMATION***

## EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS:

**EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS:**

- Why forecast signal lost at 9-day lead?
- How can predictability be extended? Better
- Better/more observations?
- Better data assimilation scheme?
- Better numerical model?
- Better ensemble techniques?

***ANIMATION***

## ANIMATION

***ANIMATION***

## NEW THORPEX NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION PARADIGM

**SOCIOECON.**

**NEW THORPEX NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION PARADIGM**

**SYSTEM**

- CLIMATE FORECASTING / CTB

***INTEGRATED**** DATA ASSIMILATION & FORECASTING*

***Days 15-60***

- NWS OPERATIONS

- GLOBAL INTERACTIVE FORECAST SYSTEM (GIFS)

***GLOBAL OPERATIONAL***

***TEST CENTER***

***GLOBAL OPERATIONAL***

***TEST CENTER***

***MODEL ****ERRORS & HIGH IMPACT MODELING*

## NOAA THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

**NOAA THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN**

**NOAA THORPEX Grantee*

**NOAA THORPEX Funding*

## NOAA’S INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX

- 1998-99	Discussions started with involvement of NOAA scientists
- Apr 2000	First International Meeting
- Mar 2002	First Workshop, International Science Steering Committee formed
- Aug 2002	NOAA Tiger Team Meeting
**Oct 2002****	****NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting**
**Nov 2002****	****1****st**** Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan**
- Jan 2003	NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee formed
- Feb 2003	Pacific TOST Experiment
**Jun 2003****	****First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity**
- Sep 2003	25 Full Proposals received
- Oct-Dec 03	Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (ATREC)
**Jun 2004****	****12 NOAA THORPEX proposals funded**
**Jan 2006****	****NOAA THORPEX PI Workshop**