# Presentation: 445758

## Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets

**Energy Information Administration**

**Future Fuels 2006**
**November 28, 2006**
**Washington, DC**

***Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets***

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2005 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2030

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**100**

**131**

- History

- Projections

**AEO2007 P**

**AEO2006**

**135**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030

**U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

- History

- Projections

**Liquid Fuels**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,

**U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,**
**2005 and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption by Sector,

**2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (millions of barrels per day)**

**2010**

**2020**

**20.7**

**22.2**

**21.6**

**24.8**

**27.6**

**Transportation**

**Residential and**
**Commercial**

**Industrial**

**Electric Power**

**2030**

**24.0**

**26.9**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Liquid Products Consumption, 1990-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Other**

**Total**

**Distillate**

**Residual**

**Motor Gasoline**

**Jet Fuel**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption by Mode, 1980-2030

**(quadrillion Btu)**

- Projections

- History

**Light-Duty Vehicles**

**Rail**

**Heavy-Duty Vehicles**

**Water**

**Air**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Travel, 1980-2030

**(billion vehicle miles traveled)**

- Projections

- History

**AEO2007 P**

**AEO2006**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 2005 and 2030

**(miles per gallon)**

- Note: Does not include impact of proposed increase in fuel economy standards based on vehicle footprint for light trucks.

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid, Diesel, and Flex Fuel Vehicles,

**U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid, Diesel, and Flex Fuel Vehicles,**
**2005 and 2030 (thousand units)**

- *Only includes hybrids that provide tractive power to the vehicle.

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## Average Fuel Economy of U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicles,

**1980-2030 (miles per gallon)**

**Cars**

**All Light-Duty Vehicles**

**Light Trucks**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## Sales of U.S. Non-Conventional Light-Duty Vehicles,

**Sales of U.S. Non-Conventional Light-Duty Vehicles,**
**2015 and 2030 (thousand vehicles sold)**

**Hybrids**

**Alcohol**

**Turbo Direct Injection Diesel**

**Gaseous**

**Electric**

**Fuel Cell**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Ethanol Production, 1981-2030

**(billion gallons)**

- Projections

- History

**AEO2007 P**

**AEO2006**

**Corn Ethanol**

**Cellulosic Ethanol**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Crude Oil  Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Lower 48 Onshore**

**Alaska**

**Deepwater Offshore**

- Projections

- History

**Total**

**Shallow Water Offshore**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,**
**1960-2030 (million barrels per day)**

**Consumption**

**Domestic Supply**

**Net Imports**** **

**60%**

**61%**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2007*****, reference case December 5****th****, report February 2006**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2006*****, June 2006**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**