# Presentation: 884636

## A Brief Introduction of NWPD at NMC/CMA

**Drs. Jiandong Gong and Guo Deng**
**National Meteorological Center**
**China Meteorological Administration**

## OUTLINE

**Staff in Numerical Weather Prediction Division**
**Development on Global Medium Range Model **
**Development on Fine Atmospheric Model**
**Development on Ensemble Forecasting**
**Development on Typhoon Forecast**
**Development on Environment Exploration**
**Model verification and Assessment**
**System Integration and Technique Support**

## Staff  Resources at NWPD

**Staff  Resources at NWPD**

**Total  staffs**   **33+5**
- Ph.D   **18**,     Master   **14**,     Bachelor    **6**

## Staff and Work

**Total3****8****,****25 work on model development**

##   Age Structure of NWPD

**  ****Age Structure of NWPD**

**NWPD has a young team**

## Main Duties of NWPD

**To Maintain and Develop Operational Numerical Weather Forecasting Systems **
**To Make Guiding Numerical Products for Nationwide Meteorological Offices**
**Verification and Assessment of Numerical Weather Products**
**To Improve Numerical Weather Service Models and DA Schemes**
**To Develop and Improve Environmental Meteorology Models**
**To Analyze Tendencies of NWP and Set up Corresponding Development Plans **

## Models Updated In Past 20 Years

## CRAY-C92

- CRAY-C92

## Slide 9

| Period | Operating Model Systems | Computer |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1995. | The Model for Typhoon Track Prediction(MTTP)  | CRAY-C92 |
| 1998. | Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model(Hysplit4) | Servers |
| 1998.6—>
2000.8—>
2004.6 | Beijing Area Mesoscale Model System—>
Huabei Mesoscale Model(HB-MM5)—> 
GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System)-MESO | SP-2
Shenwei-1 |
| 1999. | Forest Fire Danger Forecast  Model | CRAY-C92
IBM-SP |
| 2000.3 | Global Medium Range EPS T106L19/32 | Shenwei-1 |
| 2001.6 | Air Quality Forecasting System | Shenwei-1 |
| 2004.3 | Sand-Dust Numerical Forecast Model Sys. | DEC-ALPHA |
| 2004.6 | Global Typhoon Track Forecast System | IBM-SP |

## 1.Work on Updates of Global Medium-Range Forecast System

**RMSE for NH 500hPa Geopotential Height for Past 20-Years**

## TEMP

**TEMP**
**探空**

**SYNOP**
**地面**

**AIRPLANE**
**飞机**

**CMW**
**导风**

**SATOB**
**测风**

**SHIPS**
**船舶**

- 现有资料

## AMSUA

## 1.1 Global ATOVS-3DVAR System was in Quasi-Operation since Dec.2006

**500 hPa height monthly mean anomaly correlation**

- _China area_

- _Northern Hemisphere_

- _Tropical region_

- AC

- 预报天数

- AC

- 预报天数

- AC

- AC

- Forecasting days

- 预报天数

**三维变分同化**

**业务最优插值**

- _Southern Hemisphere_

- 2006年汛期500hpa距平相关系数

## 1.2 T319L31 experiments stats 500mb Height AC/RMSE for year 2005

- The 10 Day Forecasting of Geopotential Height of TL319L31
- Is better than that of 10 T213L31

**East Asia Annual mean 500 mb GH Anomaly Corelation**

**East Asia Annual mean 500 mb GH RMSE**

- AC

- RMSE

## 1.3 Further experiment to upgrade from T213L31 to T639L60 

- There is 16% 5-d AC score improvement by using **NCEP ANALYSIS DATA** as initial condition

**Thanks to Mr. Yuejian Zhu**

- AC

- AC

## GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System)is a national-key project for 5 years (2001-2005)

**GRAPES**** ****(****G****lobal/****R****egional ****A****ssimilation ****P****r*****E*****diction ****S****ystem****)****is a national-key project for 5 years (2001-2005)**
- The GRAPES project was launched in 2001. It is cosponsored and supported by Chinese MOST and CMA.

**1.4 GRAPES-Global Parallel Test 50KM**

## GRAPES

_**Vert. Coodinate**_
_**H. Terrain Flw.**_

_**Phy. Schemes**_
_**Full Phy. package**_

_**Space resol.**_
_**Multi-scales**_

_**Assimilation**_
_**3DVAR/4DVAR**_

_**Code Architec. **_
_**Mod./Parall.**_

_**Dynamical Core**_
_**Full compressible**_
_**HY/NH **_

_**Integration**_
_**SI-SL **_

_**Grid system **_
_**lat.-long. grid**_

## TC Forecasts 

**GRAPES**
**Applications**

**Atmospheric Research**

**Sand & Dust Forecasts**

**Real-time Operational Implemt****.**

**Field exp. Simul****. **

**TC Forecasts**** **

**Lightning Modeling**** **

**Operationally implemented in NMC, RMCs (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Provinces, ...); more 50 users (including universities, research institutions)**

**Training Tool**** **

**Climate modeling**** **

## GRAPS .vs T213L31 (opr)

**Jan.2005**

**Feb.2005 **

**Jul. 2005**

**GRAPS .vs T213L31 (opr)**

- AC

- AC

- AC

## 2 Work on Upgrades of Regional Short-range Forecast System

## 2.1  Operating GRAPES-MESO System 

- 8月21日正式投入业务运行,产品经9210通信系统实时下发** **

- AC

## 2.2 Fine Resolution Assimilation/Forecast System

**Data**
** ****pre-processing**

**Physics Paramet.**

**Micro-Physics**

**Urban**
**PBL**

**LSM**

**Dynamical data**
**(****与全球模式资料接口****)**

**Static data**

**Initial Fields**

**Model post process****(****Interp. Products,Visu.****)**

**2.2 Fine Resolution Assimilation/Forecast System**

## 2.2.1 Radar DA (Reflectivity&Velocity) 

**Exp. PV**: both radial velocity and reflectivity observations are assimilated with **PI3DVAR**
- Tab.1 Correlation coefficient between the hourly forecast reflectivity and the observed for the two experiments.

**2.2.1 Radar DA (Reflectivity&Velocity)**

## 2.2.2  The Effect of Digital Filter Initialization

- Averaged absolute value of surface pressure tendency

- 三小时预报的侧边界的形成。
- 三小时观测要素库资料的检索
- 数值滤波初始化的加入
- 地面自动站,飞机,雷达VAD风廓线资料的融入
- 系统的个例试验
-       Nonconventional data assimilation and digital filter initialization for RUC system to be established.

## 24Hr Rainfall Observation 

- Top Left: Experiment of control –conventional data
- Bottom Left: add surface, VAD winds , Doppler Radar data in Tianjin and Shijiazhuang, and initialized with digital filter
- Bottom right: Observation

**24Hr Rainfall Observation **

## 2.2.3 The improvement of the Physics Processes

- Microphysics Process
- Modification for HL3 simple ice scheme
- Sensitivity of Convective Parameterization
- PBL Scheme and Land Surface Process
- The implement of urban canopy parameterization in PBL

## The effect of urban building in UCP

- (Otte, 2004)

- GIS

## Parameterization of Urban Area

## The diurnal variation in urban area

- Improvement of the 2-m temperature

- Improvement of the 10-m wind

**Heat island**

## 3. Work on Upgrades of Ensemble Forecast System

## 3.1 Global Medium Range EPS

**Technique****:****初值扰动生成技术— **
**          ****增长模繁殖法(****BGM****)**

**Flow Chart**

**500hPa****特征高度面条图**

**250hPa****平均风场**

**Thanks to **
**Dr. Jun Du**

## T106L19, SV’s

**Operation system**

**Equal probability  1/33=0.03(Red line****)**

**红线等概率线为最佳发散度**

**T106L19, SV’s**

**BGM cycling**

**Thanks to **
**Dr. Bo Cui**

## Quasi-operational GEPS

**Mean ACC DURING Jun.-Aug.**

**Ensembl mean**

**ctl**

- 预报天数

- RMSE

**Quasi-operational GEPS**

- Ensemblemean

- spread

- RMSE
- CTL

- 预报天数

## Upgraded operational EPS system

| EPS  | Operational | Qusi-operation |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Model | T106L19 | T213L31 |
| Horizontal resulation | 1.125deg Gaussian Grid | 0.5625 Reduced Grid |
| Vertical resolution | 19 | 31 |
| Analysis Scheme | 3D OI | 3D MVOI/3DVARVAR |
| Perturbation | SV’s | BGM |
| Target area | Global | Global |
| Members | 33 | 15 |
| Products | Seldom | Abundance |
| Verification | Less | More |
| Operational Time | 2000 | 2006 |

## 3.2 Regional Mesoscale EPS Experiment for Implementation

## Global EP pairs(00z/12z)

- Global EP pairs(00z/12z)

- 18z

- 00z

- Meso-scale EP pairs(12z)

- Bred Cyc

- Assim Cyc

- Boundary &Initial

- 6h cycle

- Meso-scale EP control

- 06z

- 12z

- Assim CYC

- Assim CYC

- Bred CYC

- Bred Cyc

- WRF model

- 3DVAR analysis

- Global EP control

## 3.3 WMO/WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics Research and Development Project

**3.3 WMO/WWRP Beijing 2008 Olympics ****Research and Development Project**

** ****MEP RDP p****articipa****ting**** systems****:**** **
**CMA meso-scale EP****S **
**CMA GRAPES ETKF EPS**
** ****NCEP new version SREF **
** ****MSC**** regional EP****S**
** ****UKMO global/regional EP****S**** **
** ****JMA global/meso-scale EP****S **
** ****NCAR WRF system**
** ****Austrian  weather service and Météo-France joint system (ARPEGE/ALADIN/AROME**** ****	**

**Thanks to **
**Drs. Geoff DiMego, Zoltan Toth and Stephen Lord**

## 4. Upgrades of Typhoon Track Prection

## 4.1 Global  Model for Typhoon Track Prediction(GMTTP) 

**4.1 Global  Model for Typhoon Track Prediction(GMTTP)**

## 4.2 Union of T213 and typhoon Relocation Technique

**4.2 Union of T213 and typhoon Relocation Technique**

**Thanks to Dr. Qingfu Liu**

## 5  Construction of TIGGE Asia Archive Center

**5  Construction of TIGGE Asia Archive Center**

- Archive center

## 6. Expand in Environmental Meteorology Models

**Routine Operation**
**Ultraviolet  index  prediction——2003**
**Air Quality Forecasting System——2001**
**Forest fire weather index  prediction——1999**
**Nuclear Pollution Transport /Dispersion——1998 (upgrading at 2002)**
**Wave Numerical Forecasting System——2005**
**Sand-Dust Numerical Forecasting Model System——2006 **

## 6.1 Coupled Wind Erosion Scheme and  MM5 Numerical Model System

**wind erosion model**

**Aerosol cycle(entrainment, transport&deposition**

**Soil type**
**Vegetation category **
**Height of vegetation**
**Cover fraction of vegetation**
**Leaf aera index(LAI)**
**Land-sea index**

## up:simulated surface concentration(mg  m-3 )

**up****:****simulated surface concentration(mg  m****-3**** )**

**down****:****WMO GTS code**

## 6.2  Ultraviolet rays Index Forecast 6

- IBM-SP

- Zenith Angle

**3-day Forecast**
**Radiation **
**Intensity**
**Of Ultraviolet Ray**** **
** **

**Convert to**
**index and**
** ****grades**

**Products**

**Arching**

**Meteorological**
**observatory**

- intranet

- Specialized 专业气象台

- Provided by Guan Chenggong of  NWPD/NMC

- Pre-Processing  Medium Range
-  Forecasting Output

- Model Variables

- Ozone Data Output

## 2003/04/03  14:00 BJT             

**UVI  from T106**

**UVI from T213**

**Cloud cover**
**OBS**

**Precipi**
**OBS**

**2003/04/03  14:00 BJT             **

## 6.3Service Products for Natural Gas Blowout Accident in Chongqing

##  6.4 Operation of Global Wave Model and Development of Regional Wave Model

**5km**
**resolution**

- Observation 24hr forecast

**15km**
**resolution**

## 7. Model Statistics and Verification

## Thanks to Mr. Yuejian Zhu

**Verif. For EPS**

**Spread****、****BSS****、****Talagrand****、****RPS****、****ROC,etc**

**Thanks to Mr. Yuejian Zhu**

## Auto. Figs Output System

**Auto. Figs Output System**

## Slide 53

## Thanks to Mr. Yuejian Zhu

**Thanks to Mr. Yuejian Zhu**

- Calibration on Prec.

## 9.Products and Display

## Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis And Process System

**Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis And Process System**

## Slide 57

## SMS(Supervisor Monitor Scheduler)规范了流程管理体系

**10. System Integration and Technique Support**

## Acknowledgements

- Qingfu Liu (relocation method)
- Jun Du (regional ensemble system)
- Yuejian Zhu (calibration, verification, NCEP analysis data)
- Bo Cui (bias correction method)
- Geoff DiMego, Zoltan Toth and Stephen Lord(B08RDP/EPS/TIGGE)

## 欢迎指导!

- THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION