# Presentation: 188841

## Trial By Fire In San Diego 

**Bill Brick**
**Senior Meteorologist**
**San Diego County Air Pollution Control District**
**Presented to the U.S. EPA's 2004 National Air Quality Conference**
**Baltimore, Maryland - February 24, 2004**

**Notes:**
Good afternoon.  Today I am going to share some personal experiences from the wildfires in San Diego county during October 2003, as well as some lessons learned at the San Diego County Air Pollution Control District (District).

These lessons are helping to drive our efforts to be better prepared for the next time such an emergency arises in San Diego county.

Hopefully, others can learn from our experience and be better prepared for their own emergency situations as well.

## The wildfires of 2003 resulted in some of the worst air quality impacts ever measured in San Diego county

- Impacts were primarily particulate matter, although the carbon monoxide standard was also exceeded

**Notes:**
In terms of air quality, these fires resulted in the worst air quality ever “measured” in San Diego county.  The air quality impacts were also more widespread than any previous episode due to the numbers and sizes of the fires.

The fires close proximity to populated areas also increased the public’s awareness of the air quality impacts and health warnings issued to the public during this multi-day episode.

The primary pollutant of concern was particulate matter.  There was also one day during the fires where the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for carbon monoxide (CO) was exceeded.

## San Diego County Monitoring Stations

**Notes:**
The District issues daily air quality forecasts and reports for nine cities/population centers scattered around the more densely populated western portion of the county.

The monitoring stations located in these nine locations represent three geographical regions of the western portion of San Diego county.

These are:
Coastal Zone: Downtown San Diego, Chula Vista (South Bay area), Del Mar, and Camp Pendleton (Oceanside).

Inland Valley/Mesa Zone: Otay Mesa, El Cajon, Kearny Mesa, and Escondido.

Foothill Zone: Alpine

The Alpine station continues to be our worst site in terms of ozone, although San Diego county has now attained the National 1-hour standard for ozone.  This site continues to exceed the National 8-hour and state 1-hour standards for ozone.

## The District began PM2.5 forecasting on October 1, 2003

- Forecasting largely based on statistical analysis of filter data collected at 5 monitoring sites in San Diego county

**Notes:**
As part of the National forecasting program the District began forecasting for PM2.5 on October 1, 2003.

This forecasting effort was largely based upon statistical analysis of filter, or Federal Reference Method (FRM) samples collected at 5 of the monitoring stations in San Diego county.

## San Diego county monitoring stations with PM2.5 filter measurements (FRM)

**Notes:**
These five stations include:

Downtown San Diego;
Chula Vista;
El Cajon;
Kearny Mesa; and, 
Escondido.

## Slide 7

**Notes:**
This graph shows a three year summary of PM2.5 data from our Downtown San Diego station (DTN).  The data are shown as the percent of occurrence of AQI categories for the years 1999 through 2001.

The data show that PM2.5 concentrations are greater in winter than in summer (opposite our ozone season), which is expected due to more stable atmospheric conditions.  The percentage of moderate days in winter is roughly 2 to 3 times the number of days during summer months.

The graph also shows that most Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups days occur from November through February, and the few Unhealthy days measured have all occurred during the month of December.

Our forecasting templates and procedures were created with these conditions in mind.

## Forecast verification and reporting data limited to two monitoring sites using PM2.5 BAM real-time samplers

**Notes:**
District meteorologists rely on data from two PM2.5 BAM samplers for real-time data reporting and forecast verification.

Statistical analysis of the FRM data did not show sharp gradients across the county or radical departures from mean conditions.  Therefore the two BAM samplers were thought to be adequate for ambient conditions expected in the county.

## San Diego County Monitoring Stations with PM2.5 BAM real-time samplers

**Notes:**
The two BAM samplers are located at the Downtown San Diego and Escondido monitoring stations.

## The Air Quality Forecast for Sunday, October 26th was made at 4:30 PM on Saturday, October 25th.  The forecast was for Moderate levels of PM2.5 throughout the county.  Santa Ana winds were expected to increase PM2.5 levels over Saturday values (Good to Moderate). 

- The Air Quality Forecast for Sunday, October 26th was made at 4:30 PM on Saturday, October 25th.  The forecast was for Moderate levels of PM2.5 throughout the county.  Santa Ana winds were expected to increase PM2.5 levels over Saturday values (Good to Moderate).

- The Cedar fire began at approximately 5:30 PM on Saturday.

**Notes:**
I had weekend duty on the weekend of October 25th and 26th.  

On Saturday, October 25th, PM2.5 levels ranged from Good to Moderate around the county.  The forecast for Sunday, October 26th, was for Moderate levels everywhere due to expected Santa Ana (offshore) winds.

The District issues its daily forecasts and reports at 4:30 PM local time.

The “Cedar” fire was started by a lost hunter at approximately 5:30 PM.

## Slide 11

**Notes:**
This graph shows the real-time PM2.5 BAM data for Saturday, October 25, 2003.

The data from the two sites show typical increases in PM2.5 concentrations as evening sets in.

## Slide 12

**Notes:**
The District operates two Radar Wind Profiler (RWP)/ Radio Acoustic Sounding Systems (RASS).  These are located near our Downtown San Diego (Point Loma) and Kearny Mesa (Miramar) sites.

The Miramar site is co-located near the rawinsonde site operated by the National Weather Service (KNKX).

Note the wind shift between hours 17 (5 PM) and 19 (7 PM).  By 11 PM the winds were easterly and strong.

## Slide 13

**Notes:**
On Sunday morning, the sky was full of distant smoke, moving from the northeast to the southwest.  From home it looked very similar to this photo image.

From where I live in coastal North County there was no smoke impacting the surface, but the multiple plumes told me we had serious problems due to fires.  The scene was quite eerie – I do not recall hearing birds chirping or dogs barking.  A strange “calm” had settled into the air.  Winds near the coast were not strong.

## Slide 14

**Notes:**
As the duty meteorologist I checked the air quality levels and meteorological data from our central data acquisition system (DAS).

As shown on this slide, data from multiple sites were missing.  The Alpine, Chula Vista, El Cajon, and Otay Mesa sites are on the same circuit.  The DAS stopped receiving data from these sites after 4 AM.

If anything can go wrong – it will (Murphy’s Law).

The Downtown San Diego site had been powered down for the weekend due to planned construction activities/electrical outages associated with the new baseball park being built nearby.

The PM2.5 BAM and data logger were kept running on backup power for the weekend.

## Slide 15

**Notes:**
This graph shows the PM2.5 data as observed on the morning of Sunday, October 26th.  Values were not exceptionally high at this time (smoke was lofting pretty well).

The Escondido data show a disturbing dropout from hours 3 to 6, preceded and followed by 1-hour values in the Moderate range.

## Slide 16

**Notes:**
The real-time PM10 data (TEOM) from the Alpine showed high concentrations before the loss of data.

Due to the severity of the fires the County of San Diego activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC), located in Kearny Mesa.

I was called into the District office (also located in Kearny Mesa) to provide technical support to the EOC.  District Director Dick Smith was working at the EOC and would be requesting air quality and meteorological information throughout the day to assist EOC operations.

Since I would be working from the office, I left our laptop at home.  The laptop is used to upload our forecasts to the website.  It also holds our forecast scripts and templates.

## Slide 17

**Notes:**
This image, taken from southbound I-5 is very similar to what I saw while driving to the office.  In a few miles, I would be in the smoke.

## Slide 18

**Notes:**
This photo is very similar to what I saw as I drove towards the office, looking east.  The fire was many miles to the east and the flame front was miles wide.

As I approached the office, spectators had parked on both sides of the street and down the center left-turn lane – all watching the fire.

I arrived at the office at 10:30 AM.

## Slide 19

**Notes:**
The data from our Miramar RWP showed strong east-northeast winds throughout the morning of October 26, 2003.  These winds were pushing the fires towards the west-southwest.

## Slide 20

**Notes:**
The Point Loma (PTL) RASS data for Sunday, October 26, 2003, shows a shallow mixed layer during the morning, followed by a more neutral atmosphere later in the day.

These conditions were not conducive to heavy smoke impacts at the surface from a lofted plume of smoke.

## Slide 21

**Notes:**
This image was taken from a location south-southeast of the District office (looking towards the north).

At about this time I was busy gathering data to provide technical support to the EOC.

## Slide 22

**Notes:**
Another picture from the same location – shows the broad extent of the fire, as well as the bright flames and a vortex of smoke, which were moving west-southwest.

## Slide 23

**Notes:**
Another photo of the smoke vortex in the vicinity of the District office (photo taken from an area south of the District office).

## Slide 24

**Notes:**
This photo clearly shows the vortex of smoke rising from the leading edge of the flame front. The vortex was driven by the the strong east-northeast winds and the flame front had by now jumped major freeways and roadways.

It was probably about this time that the windows at the office began to pulsate inward and outward from the pressure fluctuations caused by the rapidly spinning vortex.

I ran down the hall to get to a better window and saw the flames exploding near the location of our Miramar RWP.  A vortex of smoke and flames was dancing about and jumped Kearny Villa Road, just north of SR-52.  The vortex was sucking flames up 100 to 200 feet into the air.

The vortex exploded trees into flames and moved westward on the north side of SR-52 at 20 to 30 mph.

## Slide 25

**Notes:**
This image shows a well-defined vortex of smoke and flame.  Appearance is very similar to what I observed near the District office.

## Slide 26

**Notes:**
The fires were advancing rapidly on many fronts.

## Slide 27

**Notes:**
For those caught in the path of the fire it was often difficult to know exactly where the fire was or in which way it was moving.

In this photo the the smoke is moving from right to left.  Note the palm trees in this photo – they indicate that the surface wind was blowing from left to right.  The fires were intense enough to produce their own circulation.

Trees in many photos indicate this phenomena, even when far away from the actual fires.  It truly was a firestorm.

## Slide 28

**Notes:**
Many neighborhoods were in the direct path of the rapidly moving flames.

## Slide 29

**Notes:**
The shear size of the clouds of smoke played tricks with depth perception.

## Slide 30

**Notes:**
The sky could be simultaneously dark in one location and brightly illuminated in another.

## Slide 31

**Notes:**
Multilane roads were no obstacle to the advancing flame fronts.

## Slide 32

**Notes:**
The rapidly advancing flame fronts put many people in harms way.

## Slide 33

**Notes:**
Available escape routes were often dangerously close to the advancing flames.

## Slide 34

**Notes:**
Traffic on major freeways was disrupted.

## Slide 35

## Slide 36

**Notes:**
Solution – close the freeways.  Note the shadows from the smoke on the freeway lanes.

## Slide 37

**Notes:**
An unusual sight in Southern California – no cars on the freeways!

## Slide 38

**Notes:**
Result – traffic jams on the surface streets.

## Slide 39

**Notes:**
A freeway closed by another type of problem.  The pilot of this aircraft became disoriented and crash landed near a civilian airport in Kearny Mesa.

## Slide 40

**Notes:**
Preparing to leave.  Destination uncertain.

## Slide 41

**Notes:**
What to do?

With flames moving rapidly across the nearby freeway I had the same feeling while working in the District office.

## Slide 42

**Notes:**
The sky directly upwind showed billowing smoke – illuminated by flames.  I couldn’t accurately determine exactly where the fire was due to trees and buildings.

I looked at the trees just outside my window and decided to leave the building.

The police who had previously been on the streets to keep the curious out of the neighborhood had also just left the area.  As I left the District office, there was only one way to go – south.

The smoke was thick, the roads uncertain.

I found my way over to the County Operations Center and checked into the EOC.  There I grabbed a computer terminal and began gathering information to provide technical support for EOC operations.

It was 11:30 AM.

## Satellite Image from October 26, 2003

**Notes:**
Southern California was in flames!

From the northwest working to the southeast.

The Piru fire (Ventura County)
The Simi/Verdale fire (Ventura/Los Angeles County)
The Grand Prix fire (San Bernardino/Los Angeles County)
The Old fire (San Bernardino County)
The Mountain fire (Riverside County)
The Roblar II fire (San Diego County) – on Camp Pendleton (Marine Base), started days earlier during live-fire exercises.
The Paradise fire (San Diego County)
The Cedar fire (San Diego County)
The Otay fire (San Diego County)

Additional fires were burning in Baja California, Mexico.

## Slide 44

**Notes:**
A thermal image showing the locations of the flame hotspots from these fires.

## Slide 45

**Notes:**
Note that the smoke from these fires extends for hundreds of kilometers towards the southwest.

## Slide 46

**Notes:**
As forecast time approached we had no new data from our RWP/RASS located near Kearny Mesa.  Our Point Loma profiler continued to operate.  The fact that we continued to receive data from our central DAS in the District office let us know that the building had not burned.

Here is the PM2.5 data collected up to forecast time on Sunday, October 26, 2003.

One-hour concentrations remained in the moderate range.  The smoke was lofting away from the fire fronts.

Near the fires the smoke was much worse.  Outside the EOC the visibility was about 1⁄4 to 1⁄2 mile during most of the day.  We had to wear particulate masks indoors until the air inlets could be closed and the smoke dissipated.

## Slide 47

**Notes:**
What to forecast?

We knew the smoke was dense in some areas, and that the air was clean in others.

## Slide 48

**Notes:**
The locations of the numerous fire fronts was impossible to know at all times, and even more difficult to predict.

## Slide 49

**Notes:**
Smoke was settling into the inland valleys.

## Slide 50

**Notes:**
Life went on in Southern California.

## Slide 51

**Notes:**
Note the Southwest airline employee donning a particulate mask.  Some people had to work outside.

## Slide 52

**Notes:**
The smoke was everywhere.

## Slide 53

**Notes:**
Between gaps in the smoke one could see the smoke from the other fires.

This image looks east-southeastward towards downtown San Diego.  The smoke overhead is from the Cedar fire.  The smoke cloud from the Otay fire can be seen in the distance.

## Slide 54

**Notes:**
The smoke extended far out to sea.

Smoke from fires was not going to stop a day of surfing!

## Slide 55

**Notes:**
San Diego’s normally picturesque skyline was transformed to one of smoky gloom.

## Slide 56

**Notes:**
The smoke was so thick that one could look directly at the sun without harm..

Apparently, people could actually see sunspots on the surface of the sun.

I was in the EOC (which was enveloped in thick surface smoke) and had no time to “enjoy” the celestial views.

## Slide 57

**Notes:**
Air quality conditions depended upon where one was in San Diego.

## Slide 58

**Notes:**
Ditto.

## Slide 59

**Notes:**
Ditto.

## Slide 60

**Notes:**
Ditto.

## Slide 61

**Notes:**
Ditto.

## Slide 62

**Notes:**
The number of photo images posted on the web showing the sun is testament to the eerie feeling that the altered sky gave people during these terrible fires.

Some photo images showed only the sun through the smoke.  Others, such as this one used more earthly images to frame the photo.

## Air Pollution Report and Forecast:

**Dated Sunday, October 26, 2003**
** **
- Today is Sunday, October 26, 2003.
- Due to the severity of the fires affecting San Diego County, some of our air monitoring stations are not reporting real-time data.  Therefore, our normal air quality forecast and report has been superceded by the following:
- In areas of heavy smoke, assume that air quality levels are unhealthy for sensitive groups to unhealthy for all individuals.  In areas with minor smoke impacts, assume that air quality levels are moderate to unhealthy for sensitive groups.  The responsible pollutant is fine particulate matter of 2.5 micrometers and less in diameter, known as PM2.5.
- In areas where you smell smoke it is advised that you limit physical activity.  If possible, stay indoors to limit your exposure to fine particulate matter.
- This recording will be updated as we get more information.
- Thank you.
-  WCB / 1600 PST

**Notes:**
Without direct access to the District computers (roads were closed in Kearny Mesa and I had left the laptop at home!) I had no forecast scripts or templates available to make the forecast.

Specific forecasts for each of our nine reporting stations was not prudent since we could not accurately know the position of the fires and smoke now or in the future.

A more general forecast was issued, telling the public that areas near the fires and in heavy smoke could be unhealthy for everyone.

County Departments had been busy making general health warnings and precautionary statements throughout the day.

Private organizations with health interests were also issuing press releases through the media.

Overall, the health warnings and statements were consistent and helpful.

## By Sunday afternoon, we knew that the Santa Ana winds would continue, but with decreasing strength over the next few days.  

- We forecasted continued poor fire and air quality conditions through Wednesday, when conditions would start to improve.

**Notes:**
My role at the EOC had evolved into one of providing frequent weather and air quality updates to the EOC staff.

For the firefighters and public safety organizations the news was not good.  Extreme fire conditions would continue for the next several days, although the Santa Ana winds were predicted to decrease in strength.  In fact, the winds in the coastal and mesa areas had already diminished and the westward progression of the fire fronts had either stopped or slowed.  This was very fortunate, since the fires could have easily progressed to the coast under the right wind conditions.

Air quality conditions would also be poor through Wednesday, when conditions would start to improve as the Santa Ana winds shifted to onshore.

The outlook was grim for the next several days.

## We still had many rough days ahead!

**We still had many ****rough**** days ahead!**

**Notes:**
The slide says it all!

## Slide 66

**Notes:**
As the first day of this tragedy wound down the populous of San Diego was being told to stay indoors and businesses were encouraged to remain closed on Monday to help keep the roads open.

The County of San Diego would remain closed except for essential personnel.  All County employees are “First Responders” in the event of an emergency and they were encouraged to volunteer at local shelters or other emergency facilities.

## Slide 67

**Notes:**
Note the calm water on San Diego Bay.

Strong winds at the coast could have easily spread the flames all the way to the Pacific Ocean!

## Slide 68

**Notes:**
During the day the flames had destroyed many suburban neighborhoods and had approached major population and commercial areas.  The backcountry and more rural neighborhoods were threatened during the night.

## Slide 69

**Notes:**
As the sun set on the West Coast it seemed as though all of San Diego was on fire.

Even at the EOC the best source of real-time information about the location of the fires during the night was the television.

Roads remained closed in and around the EOC.  It was going to be a long night and a long shift.

## Slide 70

**Notes:**
As the night progressed, PM2.5 concentrations continued to rise in Downtown San Diego.  The Escondido station was measuring much lower concentrations.

## Slide 71

**Notes:**
Sunrise on Monday, October 27 began a new day for the residents of San Diego county.

## Slide 72

**Notes:**
The fires still burned hot, but the westward progression had been halted or significantly slowed due to the decreased offshore winds.

Smoke continued to impact the air quality.

## Slide 73

**Notes:**
A visual image for Monday, October 27, 2003.

## Slide 74

**Notes:**
The Point Loma (PTL) RWP data for Monday, October 27, 2003, shows offshore winds aloft during the first half of the day, followed by a turning of the winds to weak onshore in the early afternoon, and then general stagnation conditions during the evening and nighttime.

Boundary layer winds were light and alongshore during the early morning hours, and onshore during the early afternoon.  The winds were light and onshore during the evening and nighttime.

## Slide 75

**Notes:**
The Point Loma (PTL) RASS data for Monday, October 27, 2003, shows an isothermal atmosphere during the early morning, with a surface-based inversion forming later in the day.  These atmospheric conditions were more conducive to trapping smoke in the surface layer.

## Slide 76

**Notes:**
PM2.5 levels were the highest ever measured in San Diego county, with sharp gradients in the data.

Air quality levels in other areas, nearer the fires were no doubt much worse.

## Slide 77

**Notes:**
On Tuesday, October 28, 2003, the fires continued to burn in the inland, more rural areas of San Diego county.

Note that the smoke is not extending as far out to sea on this day.

## Slide 78

**Notes:**
The Point Loma (PTL) RWP data for Tuesday, October 28, 2003, shows conditions becoming stagnant during the day.

Note that the low level winds become southeasterly in the evening.

## Slide 79

**Notes:**
The Point Loma (PTL) RASS data for Tuesday, October 28, 2003, shows a surface-based inversion during most of the day.  These stable conditions were conducive to trapping of smoke in the surface layer.

## Slide 80

**Notes:**
PM2.5 concentrations rose even further on this date.  Escondido was being severely impacted with smoke from the Paradise fire.

The Downtown San Diego station showed much lower impacts from the smoke.  Both sites showed decreasing concentrations as the winds became southeasterly.

The gap in the Escondido data is when District Instrument Technicians were sent out to verify the operation of the BAM.  We had never seen values this high (over 700 micrograms per cubic meter!) and did not know whether we could trust the numbers (recall the data drop-outs on Sunday!).

## Slide 81

**Notes:**
Visibilities throughout the county were severely impacted by the smoke.

This image is near La Jolla, close to I-5 (coastal freeway).

## Slide 82

**Notes:**
The Poway area from I-15 (inland freeway).

## Slide 83

**Notes:**
Low visibilities predominated all over the populated areas of San Diego county.

## Slide 84

**Notes:**
In some areas the smoke was thick enough to turn day into night.

## Slide 85

**Notes:**
Life went on in San Diego county.

Many who needed to be outdoors heeded warnings about the dangers of airborne particulate matter.  However, the effectiveness of “nuisance masks” in filtering fine particles is questionable.

## Slide 86

**Notes:**
It is hard to imagine that everyone did not understand that this is unhealthy to breathe.

## Slide 87

**Notes:**
Many wore masks.  Many did not.

It is likely that a “run” on masks made them difficult to obtain.

## Slide 88

**Notes:**
The desire to see if a home survived the fires can override a short-term nuisance such as smoke.

## Slide 89

**Notes:**
Satellite thermal imagery from Wednesday, October 28, 2003.  The fires were now moving eastward with the shifting winds, away from the major population centers and into mountain communities.

## Slide 90

**Notes:**
The Point Loma (PTL) RWP data for Wednesday, October 29, 2003, shows southerly winds in the low levels during the early morning hours, turning to onshore during the day, and south-southwest and southerly winds at night.

We were getting an air mass change!

## Slide 91

**Notes:**
The Point Loma (PTL) RASS data for Wednesday, October 29, 2003, shows a shallow marine layer capped by an inversion, that lifts during day and dissipates at night.

These conditions are consistent with an air mass change and improved air quality conditions.

## Slide 92

**Notes:**
The shifting winds rapidly cleaned the air, bringing relief to the major metropolitan areas of San Diego county.

Burned areas continued to smolder, creating localized areas of smoke.

The fires continued to rage in the inland, mountain areas of San Diego county.

## FIRE SUMMARY

- Worst fire in recent California history
- 392,000 acres burned in San Diego County
- 2574 homes and 2700 other structures destroyed
- $900,000,000 in damage (increasing)
- 16 confirmed dead
- 4 days of unhealthy-hazardous air quality

**Notes:**
Some sobering statistics.

## Lessons Learned

- Plan for the unexpected (scripts and templates)
- Forecast/report on the conservative side
- Departments/Agencies need to know responsibilities before the emergency
- Have central contacts for school districts
- Have media packets available to reduce confusion of “new” news reporters
- Coordinate better with private organizations concerned with public health
- Prepare to be inundated with calls
- Watch all pollutants and don’t leave the laptop at home!
- Plan for the unexpected!

**Notes:**
So what did we learn?  We all know that if anything can go wrong it will!
Prepare scripts and templates for the worst-case scenario before the emergency arises.  In the middle of the crisis things get hectic.  You will be lucky if you never need to use them.
Forecast/report on the conservative side – emphasize the health affects of air pollution and acknowledge that air quality levels can be in the hazardous range in localized areas
Departments should have a clear idea of who is responsible for what the public hears on health related issues.
Have central contacts with school districts.  The District already had this in place from our ozone Health Advisory program and it was extremely helpful.  Schools were closed during the fires and remained closed until they had time to properly clean up the school grounds to avoid   re-entrainment of particulates.
Expect to have a “new” (to environmental issues) reporter pursuing a story.  Inaccuracies in the reporting will happen.  Data on your website is great most of the time, but it will be misrepresented (e.g., hourly PM2.5 concentrations in micrograms per cubic meter plotted as the AQI).
Expect health warnings issued by public and private health-related organizations to diverge at times (e.g., confusion over PM2.5 residence time and changes in air mass).
Be prepared to be inundated with calls (for weeks).  They run the gamut.
Keep an eye on all pollutants (e.g., CO) and keep your tools handy.
Plan to be caught unprepared (Something unexpected will go wrong; but prepare for what you can anticipate - you’ll be glad you did!).

## Slide 95

**Notes:**
A different perspective.  

San Diego county before the fires.

## Slide 96

**Notes:**
San Diego county after the fires.

Note how much of San Diego county is still heavily vegetated.

It is not a matter of if it will burn - it is a matter of when.

## Slide 97

**Notes:**
The majority of the public recognized the severity of this tragedy and knew that the air was unhealthy to breathe.  The evidence was everywhere.

Some still need to be told.  So get the message out early and often.

## Slide 98

**Notes:**
After the fires and after we were able to return to our offices we began to regroup and take a retrospective look at the air quality during the episode (between phone calls that is).

It was also time to assess the damage from the fires.

## Slide 99

**Notes:**
From the EOC it was easy to monitor the pollutants from operational monitoring stations.

## Slide 100

**Notes:**
It was less easy to be watching 8-hour averages.  In Escondido we exceeded the National Air Quality Standard for carbon monoxide (CO), but failed to recognize it at the time.

PM2.5 still dominated the air quality, but an additional comment about CO would have been a good public service!

## Slide 101

**Notes:**
Did the public pay attention?

The number of phone calls made to our forecasting recording confirms that they did.  In fact, the awareness of PM2.5 levels has resulted in a daily average of 3 to 4 times as many daily calls after the fires than before.

This pattern continues even to this day.

## Slide 102

**Notes:**
Hits to our website also showed a dramatic increase.

## Slide 103

**Notes:**
This image illustrates the intensity of the fires.

## Slide 104

**Notes:**
It would take weeks and months to return vital services to all of San Diego county.

## Slide 105

**Notes:**
Miraculously, our Miramar RWP/RASS survived the firestorm.

Note the green vegetation mixed with the burned.  The rapidly moving fire appears to have “danced” through.

## Slide 106

**Notes:**
The heat was intense.

Electrical power was only recently restored to this site.

## Slide 107

**Notes:**
The adjacent National Weather Service trailers were not so fortunate.

The dome is the rawinsonde preparation shelter, which did survive the fire.

Our trailer (at right) was shifted on its foundations by the strong winds associate with the vortex I observed running through the area.

## Slide 108

**Notes:**
As other data became available, we noticed a problem – the Downtown San Diego (12th Avenue) data looked worse than the Escondido data.  This was not consistent with the BAM data from these sites.

It is important to note that many of the PM2.5 filters could not be used for gravimetric analysis since the pumps were unable to maintain proper flows due to the high filter loading.

The Kearny Mesa site is labeled as Overland in this photo.

## Slide 109

**Notes:**
The Downtown San Diego datalogger had a correction factor that was needed during the moist summer months.  This correction factor was not needed during this dry, Santa Ana condition.  The correction factor was removed from the BAM data.

Here is the daily PM2.5 concentration, AQI, and health category summary showing the corrected data for Downtown San Diego (Escondido shown for comparison).

PM2.5 FRM data had never measured anything above the low end of the Unhealthy range anywhere in San Diego county.

We thought we were going to get back to normal!

## Slide 110

**Notes:**
However, in November and December 2003, we had three episodes that increased the number of calls to our air quality forecast recording line.

These were not fires!

## Slide 111

**Notes:**
They were dust, soot and ash episodes caused by strong Santa Ana winds.  The exposed soil, soot and ash in the burned areas easily became airborne under these conditions.

This satellite image is from Thanksgiving Day, November 27, 2003.

The dust, soot and ash can be seen blowing westward out past San Clemente Island.

## Slide 112

**Notes:**
Photo (I took this series of photos) looking westward from the District office (Kearny Mesa) on Thanksgiving Day, November 27, 2003.

Airborne dust is evident in this photo.  Visibilities were low throughout the day.

## Slide 113

**Notes:**
Photo (I took this series of photos) looking eastward from the District office (Kearny Mesa) on Thanksgiving Day, November 27, 2003.

Airborne dust is evident in this photo.  Visibilities were low throughout the day.

## Slide 114

**Notes:**
The soot and dust accumulated quickly on my car.

## Slide 115

**Notes:**
PM10 dominated the PM2.5 data on this date.

The PM10 TEOM at Alpine hit the maximum detection limit for two hours before a power failure (caused by high winds) created a loss of data.

Our forecast gave ample warning to the public on this episode.  We did hear of some complaints from participants in a 5K run that morning.

## Slide 116

**Notes:**
This presentation would not be complete without acknowledging the efforts of our public safety workers.

One firefighter lost his life during this terrible tragedy.  Several more were injured.

Numerous police and firefighting personnel suffered respiratory problems from their exposure to the smoke.  Many are still suffering from the damage to their respiratory systems.

## Slide 117

**Notes:**
They put their lives on the line...

## Slide 118

**Notes:**
against an incredibly powerful enemy...

## Slide 119

**Notes:**
in daunting situations...

## Slide 120

**Notes:**
and extreme conditions...

## Slide 121

**Notes:**
they fought to protect and save lives and property...

## Slide 122

**Notes:**
putting the safety of others before their own...

## Slide 123

**Notes:**
and they did not give up until the fire was out.

## Slide 124

**Notes:**
The police departments were there to keep the dazed public out of harms way...

## Slide 125

**Notes:**
while pushing the limits of their own safety...

## Slide 126

**Notes:**
and provided some level of comfort to an uneasy public...

## Slide 127

**Notes:**
all for the public good.  

## Acknowledgements:

- _District Meteorologists_:
- Ralph DeSiena
- Bill Reeve
- Adam Canter

**Notes:**
I would like to acknowledge the District’s meteorological staff, who provided round-the-clock technical support at the EOC during the wildfires of 2003.

Their excellent forecasting skills were of great value to the EOC and County administrators as they guided the County through this calamity.

They were also instrumental in providing excellent customer service as we were inundated with phone calls once the County and District returned to operational status following the fires.

## District Monitoring Staff and Management

**Notes:**
District monitoring staff keep our equipment running on a routine basis throughout the year.  

Their efforts during this emergency situation was instrumental in minimizing data loss and providing confidence in the reported data.

District management provided guidance and support during this exceptional event.

## National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

- The NOAA Operational Significant Event Imagery Support Team (George Stephens)

**Notes:**
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) processed many of the satellite images included in this presentation.

Special thanks to NOAA’s Operational Significant Event Imagery Support Team are also in order.  Especially, George Stephens, who, at my request, processed the images of the post-fire dust storms (one was included in this presentation).

The satellite imagery available from NOAA really help to put this event into perspective.

## Photographers

**Notes:**
I would also like to acknowledge the photographers who made the visual portion of this presentation possible.

The majority of the photo images in this presentation were obtained from the Internet or via e-mail from colleagues.  

It is my understanding that these photos were placed in the public domain and are therefore not copyrighted.

Unfortunately, the photographers are not known to me and I apologize if anyone objects to their photos being included in this presentation.