# Presentation: 536540

## Susan O’Neill, Sue FergusonUSDA Forest ServiceAtmosphere and Fire Interaction Research and Engineering (AirFIRE) Team Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab

- BlueSky
- A Smoke Modeling Framework

## What is BlueSky?

**Real-time Smoke Concentration Predictions:  Prescribed, Wild, *****Agricultural***** Fires**
**Daily Emission Tracking from Multi-Agency Burn Reporting Systems**
***Quantitative Verification***
**Automated, centralized processing**
**Forecasts for 5 domains daily**
**Web-access to output products**

## Smoke Predictions

**Smoke Predictions**

- MM5 36-km

- MM5 12-km

**UW Server**

**Personal PC**

**SFSL “Beowulf” Cluster**

- NFSpuff

- BlueSky

## BlueSky 

**fire, smoke, and weather into one, centralized system.**

- BlueSky

- Smoke Modeling Framework

## BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework

**Plume Rise**
**(Visibility)**
**(Chemistry)**

**Calculate fuel consumption and variable rate emissions of:  Heat Released, PM2.5, PM10, PM, CO, CO2, CH4**

**CALPUFF**
**HYSPLIT**
**(CMAQ)**

**Fuel Loadings:  Hardy et al., NFDRS, FCC mapping**
**EPM/COMSUME v1.02**
*BURNUP*

***Smoke Dispersion***

**Area Burned**
**Fuel Moisture**
**Fuel Loadings**
**Fire Location**
**Fire Ignition Time**

***Fire Characteristics***

***Meteorology***

**3-d Wind/Temp/Moisture**
**UW MM5 Forecast System**
**12 km Domain**
**72 Hour Forecast**

***Web Display of Output Products***

**Animations PM2.5**
**Surface Concentrations**

**BlueSky ****Smoke Modeling Framework**

**RAINS (ArcIMS/ArcSDE)**
**Zoom In/Out, Overlay GIS Data**
**PM2.5 Concentrations, Trajectories,**
**Meteorological data,**

**FASTRACS**
**MT/ID Airshed Group**
**209 Wildfire Reports**
*Washington DNR, Oregon ODF, ClearSky*

***Emissions***

## BlueSky Output Products

**BlueSky**** Output Products**
**60 hr Forecast Animations**

## What is RAINS?

**Rapid Access Information System (RAINS)**
**Graphical Information System (GIS)**
**Using ArcIMS/ArcSDE, SQL server**
**Allowing for web display of BlueSky output products with all the benefits of GIS**
**EPA Product**

## ... BlueSkyRAINS?

**Combines the BlueSky smoke forecast with the power of RAINS GIS technology.**** **
**Allows for quantitative assessment of smoke impacts from burning activities in the region.**

## BlueSkyRAINS Output Products

**BlueSkyRAINS ****Output Products**

## BlueSkyRAINS Output Products

**BlueSkyRAINS ****Output Products**

## BlueSkyRAINS Output Products

**BlueSkyRAINS ****Output Products**

## BlueSkyRAINS Output Products

## BlueSkyRAINS Output Products

**BlueSkyRAINS ****Output Products**

## Trajectories
Follow air currents 
	(like a balloon)
May be well above surface
New from source each hour during day of burn
Surface Concentrations
Result of plume dynamics
Always at the surface
Cumulated from source each hour during emission period

**Trajectories**
**Follow air currents **
***	******(like a balloon)***
**May be well above surface**
**New from source each hour during day of burn**
**Surface Concentrations**
**Result of plume dynamics**
**Always at the surface**
**Cumulated from source each hour during emission period**

**www.****BlueSky****RAINS****.org**** **

**Dot color indicates height of parcel above surface (red is lowest).**

**Shade color indicates concentration in ****μg****/m****3****.**

## BlueSkyRAINS:Quantitative Impacts

**BlueSkyRAINS:****Quantitative Impacts**

## BlueSkyRAINS:

**BlueSkyRAINS:**
**Linkage with Monitoring Data**

## BlueSkyRAINS

**Meteorology for fire weather forecasting**

## BlueSkyRAINSCumulative Impacts

**With**
**ClearSky**

**BlueSkyRAINS****Cumulative Impacts**

## BlueSkyRAINS

**Applications**
**Prescribed Fires**
**Wildfires**
**Agricultural Burning**

** ****Incident command teams**
** ****Public information**
** ****Planning burnouts**
** ****Aircraft resource allocation**
** ****Local burners**
** ****go/no-go/go-slow decisions**
** ****Negotiation tool**
** ****Smoke managers**
** ****Cumulative effects monitoring**
** ****Emission tracking**
** ****Air Regulators**
** ****Cumulative effects monitoring**
** ****Emission tracking**
** ****go/no-go decisions**
** ****All Users**
** ****Impact assessment & mitigation**

## BlueSky Consortium

## NorthWest  Regional Modeling 

- Weather observations/forecasts, fire danger, and smoke dispersion for the Northwest.

**www.atmos.washington.edu/pnw_environ**

**NorthWest  Regional Modeling **
**Consortium (NWRMC)**

## Migration to other FCAMMS Domains

**Migration to other FCAMMS Domains**

## BlueSky Forecasts Smoke from Wildfires for 5 Western Domains

## Provides surface PM2.5 concentrations from wildland fire.
Aiding burn decisions by allowing for:
Multi-Agency Communication (address competition for airshed issues)
Dissemination of Information to the Public
Aid in Go/No-Go/Go-Slow Burn Decisions
Integrates existing science and knowledge.
Collaboration is the foundation.

**Aiding burn decisions by allowing for:**
**Multi-Agency Communication (address competition for airshed issues)**
**Dissemination of Information to the Public**
**Aid in Go/No-Go/Go-Slow Burn Decisions**
**Integrates existing science and knowledge.**
**Collaboration is the foundation.**

- BlueSky

**Focus, Integration, Collaboration**

## Acknowledgements

**Acknowledgements**

**Funding provided by the National Fire Plan**
**In-kind funding provided by EPA for development of the RAINS capabilities.**
**Thank you to Louisa Evers for promoting BlueSky’s use in wildfires across the country and to our FCAMMS partners for making it possible.**
**Thank you to the BlueSky developers:****Trent Piepho, Lara Kellogg, Sim Larkin, Wes Adkins, Candace Berg, Ray Peterson, Don Matheny, Sue McCarthy, Bob Kotchenruther**

## Thank You! Questions?

**BlueSky****:****	****	****www.fs.fed.us/bluesky**
**BlueSky****RAINS****:****	****www.blueskyrains.org**
*AirFIRE Team: **	**www.fs.fed.us/pnw/airfire*
*Susan O’Neill (oneill@fs.fed.us)*