# Presentation: 771265

## The Contributions of the ASA Committee on Energy Statisticsto the Energy Information Administration

- Calvin A. Kent, PhD
- April 9, 2008

## EIA’s 1977 Mandate

- Create a clear, comprehensible and cohesive body of energy information
- Collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze and disseminate information relative to:
- Resource reserves
- Energy production
- Energy demand
- Technology

## Role of EIA

- Provide policy independent data, forecasts and analysis
- Promote sound policy making, efficient markets and public understanding regarding energy and its relation to the economy and environment

## ASA Committee on Energy Statistics

- Provide periodic reviews of EIA data and analysis programs and make recommendations
- Give advice on priorities of technical and methodological issues of EIA statistical programs
- Advise on improved energy modeling and forecasting tools

## Six Major Interactions

- Data Quality-42%
- Modeling-23%
- Confidentiality of Data-3%
- Resources and Requirements-13%
- EIA Independence-1%
- Timeliness vs. Accuracy-12%
- All other -6%

## Data Collection: Issues

- Data collection (timeliness of response)-31%
- Validity of data (audits, documentation and standards)-16%
- Timeliness of dissemination-10%
- Sampling techniques and survey design-19%
- Incomplete/missing data (estimation)-19%
- Standardization of data definitions-5%

## Energy Modeling

- First statistical agency to be given a Congressional mandate to forecast markets
- Using simulations to forecast policy options greatly accelerated during the 1st Bush
- Greatest problem was the integration of the various EIA long and short term models

## Development of NEMS

- July 1989 Administration ordered the development of a “more accurate and useful forecasting system”.
- The NEMS was to equally useful in policy analysis as well as forecasting
- NRC (1991) evaluated the NEMS architecture and required that it be
- Modular
- Transparent
- Useful and rapid for policy analysis

## Development of NEMS 2

- ASA Committee was to become the required “user group” for NEMS evaluation
- From 1989 to 1996 the ASA Committee spent 26% of its time of NEMS related questions-more than any other topic
- Beginning in 1999 the ASA Committee became involved in the development of “System of Analysis of Global Energy-SAGE”
- Since 2001 the discussion of modeling has become less time consuming for the Committee

## Resources and Responsibilities

- Over its life EIA has faced the problem of increased responsibilities with diminishing real resources
- Pressure from Congress increased even faster than from the Executive after the oil embargo of the late 1970’s
- In addition EIA personnel were and are still asked to participate in studies by other federal agencies (EPA, DOT, BEA etc.)

## Resources and Responsibilities

- EIA was criticized during the 1980’s for sacrificing quality of data to other concerns
- Over the last 10 years the problems of data quality have required increased Committee attention
- EIA has made greater use of “on-line” dissemination and collection as a major way of reducing costs along with expanded technology

## Resources and Responsibilities

- The problems of resource limitations have intensified over the last 20 years by:
- National Energy Strategies/Plans/Legislation
- Deregulation of natural gas and electricity (non-utility generation)
- Greenhouse gas reporting
- Energy efficiency (including new technologies)
- Renewable energy
- The Committee has played the key role in this process

## Data Confidentiality

- There have been continuing conflicts with other federal agencies over access to EIA’s data
- Assurance of confidentiality was necessary because:
- Increased compliance
- Competitive advantages
- Interaction with other federal agencies
- Issue has become less pressing since the “Confidential Information and Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act of 2002” and has not been a major concern of the Committee

## Independence of EIA

- CRS  (1980) “Congress sought to centralize responsibility for the collection of all important energy information, give the agency independence from the policy process so that it would not be compromised. . .”
- Independence has and continues to be most threatened during periods:
- spiking energy prices
- issues regarding carbon emissions
- Since the Reagan Administration there has been a growing recognition of the need for EIA’s independence

## Continuing Role of the ASA Committee

- Insure accuracy of data with particular emphasis on estimations
- Evaluate models for adequacy and effectiveness
- Review EIA publications and methods of dissemination
- Consult with EIA staff and critique work
- Assist in prioritizing EIA’s efforts

## West Virginia Energy Flow (Trillion BTU) 

**West Virginia Energy Flow (Trillion BTU)**