# Presentation: 583847

## Annual Energy Outlook 2007

***from the***
***Annual Energy ******Outlook****** 2007***

**Guy Caruso**
**Administrator**
**Energy Information Administration**
**Briefing to the International Energy Agency**
**June 18, 2007**
**www.eia.doe.gov**

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2005 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**Reference**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030

**U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

**Liquid Fuels & Other Petroleum**

## U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of

**U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of**
**Real Gross Domestic  Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## Consumption of Liquids and Other Petroleum Products by Sector, 1970-2030  (million barrels per day)

**Industrial**

**Transportation**

**Residential and Commercial**

**Electric Power**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## Average Fuel Economy of U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicles,

**1980-2030 (miles per gallon)**

**Cars**

**All Light-Duty Vehicles**

**Light Trucks**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Sales of Unconventional Light-Duty Vehicles,

**U.S. Sales of Unconventional Light-Duty Vehicles,**
**2015 and 2030 (thousand vehicles sold)**

**Hybrids**

**Flex Fuel**

**Turbo Direct Injection Diesel**

**Gaseous**

**Electric**

**Fuel Cell**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## Ethanol Consumption as E85 and Blended with

**Motor Gasoline, 1981-2030 (billion gallons)**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**Ethanol Blended into Motor Gasoline**

**Ethanol in E85**

## U.S. Crude Oil  Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Lower 48 Onshore**

**Alaska**

**Deepwater Offshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**Total**

**Shallow Water Offshore**

## Total U.S. Unconventional Oil Production in Two Cases,

**2005-2030 (thousand barrels per day)**

**Reference**

**High Price**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Imports(million barrels per day)

**60%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**67%**

**High Price**

**High Price**

**Low Price**

**Low Price**

**49%**

**Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Imports****(million barrels per day)**

**61%**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2030

**(trillion cubic feet)**

**Transportation****

**Industrial***

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Electric Power**

- Projections

- History

- * Includes lease and plant fuel

- ** Includes pipeline fuel

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(trillion cubic feet)**

**Alaska**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore**

**Lower 48 Associated-Dissolved**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Unconventional Natural Gas Production, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

**Tight Sands**

**Coalbed Methane**

**Gas Shales**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**16%**

**21%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030

**U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030**
**(2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector,

**2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)**

**22.8**

**24.2**

**27.5**

**Coal to**
**Liquids**

**Other**

**Electric**
**Power**

**35.0**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## 3-Year Rolling Average Electricity Demand Growth(with exponential trend line)

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

**3-Year Rolling Average Electricity Demand Growth****(with exponential trend line)**

|  | Annual Growth |
| --- | --- |
| 1950s | 10.5% |
| 1960s | 7.3% |
| 1970s | 4.2% |
| 1980s | 2.6% |
| 1990s | 2.3% |
| 2000-2005 | 1.4% |
| 2005-2030 | 1.5% |

## U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel, 2006-2030 (gigawatts)

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**Nuclear**

## U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2005 and 2030

**(billion kilowatthours)**

**  ****-  percent of total**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030

**U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030**
**(million metric tons)**

**6,214 in 2010**

**6,944 in 2020**

**Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2030**
**(metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)**

**486 in 2010**

**407 in 2020**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**7,950 in 2030**

**353 in 2030**

**5,945 in 2005**

## Annual Energy Outlook 2007 reference case indicates that through 2030....

**Traditional fossil fuels are expected to continue to meet the bulk of energy requirements over the projection period**
**U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent**
**The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent**
**U.S. oil import dependence, measured as a share of U.S. oil use, is not expected to increase over the next 25 years**
**U.S. natural gas use is projected to be level off over the last decade of the projection**
**Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports**
**Carbon dioxide emissions from energy are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent**

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2007*****, February 2007**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2007*****, May 2007**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48                   ****	****Federal Outer Continental Shelf,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2007***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**