# Presentation: 294793

## NOAA's NWS National Performance Measures FY 2006 – FY 2012

| Government Performance Requirements Act
(GPRA) Performance Measure | Goals | Actual  | Goals |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | 2006 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
| Weather and Water Goals |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Tornado Warnings - Accuracy (%) | 76 | 75 | 76 |  |  |  |  |  |
| Tornado Warnings - False Alarm Rate (%) | 75 | 79 | 75 |  |  |  |  |  |
| Tornado Warnings - Lead Time (Min) | 13 | 13 | 13 |  |  |  |  |  |
| Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) |  |  |  | *67 | 69 | 70 | 70 | 72 |
| Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) |  |  |  | *74 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 70 |
| Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time (Min) |  |  |  | *11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| Flash Flood Warnings - Accuracy  (%) | 89 | 89 | 89 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| Flash Flood Warnings - Lead Time  (Min) | 48 | 49 | 48 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| Hurricane Track Forecasts (48 Hours Forecast Error, RMS) | 111 | 97 | 110 | 109 | 108 | 107 | 106 | 105 |
| Precipitation Forecast – Day-1 Threat Score  (%) | 28 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 31 |
| Winter Storm Warnings - Accuracy  (%) | 90 | 89 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 | 91 |
| Winter Storm Warnings - Lead Time  (Hours) | 15 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Hurricane Intensity Error (Knots) |  |  |  | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 |

** New performance measures to coincide with the implementation of more precise storm-based warnings.*

## NOAA's NWS National Performance Measures FY 2006 – FY 2012

| Government Performance Requirements Act
(GPRA) Performance Measure | Goals | Actual  | Goals |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | 2006 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
| Climate Goals |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill | 18 | 25 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 21 |
| Commerce and Transportation Goals |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Aviation Forecasts (Ceiling and Visibility) - Accuracy (%) (1 mi/500 ft or less) | 47 | 43 |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Aviation Forecasts (Ceiling and Visibility) - False Alarm Rate (%) (1 mi/500 ft or less)  | 65 | 64 |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Aviation  Forecasts (Ceiling and Visibility) - Accuracy (%) (less than 3 mi/1000 ft) |  |  | *62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 |
| Aviation  Forecasts (Ceiling and Visibility) - False Alarm Rate (%) (less than 3 mi/1000 ft) |  |  | *45 | 44 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 40 |
| Marine Wind Speed Forecasts - Accuracy  (%) | 58 | 55 |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Marine Wave Height Forecasts - Accuracy  (%) | 68 | 70 |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Marine Wind – Percentage of Accurate Forecasts |  |  | **68 | 68 | 69 | 69 | 69 | 70 |
| Marine Wave Height – Percentage of Accurate Forecasts |  |  | **73 | 73 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 75 |

## Tornado Warnings

** New performance measures to coincide with the implementation of more precise storm-based warnings.*

## Flash Flood Warnings

## Hurricane Track Forecasts (48Hrs Forecast Error, RMS)

## Precipitation Forecast(Day-1 Threat Score)

## Winter Storm Warnings

## Hurricane Intensity Error (Knots)

## U.S. Seasonal Temperature - Skill

## Aviation Forecasts(Ceiling/Visibility Forecast)

** Modified performance measures to be more meaningful and relevant to the aviation community and the forecaster.*

## Marine Wind Speed Forecasts

** New performance measures to best represent forecast accuracy.*

## Marine Wave Height Forecasts

** New performance measures to best represent forecast accuracy.*