# Presentation: 057621

## Transition to 15 ppmULSD 

***Transition to 15 ppm******ULSD ***

## Experiences to Draw on

- Annual RVP change over – since 1989

## Experiences to Draw on

- Annual RVP change over – since 1989
- Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992

## Experiences to Draw on

- Annual RVP change over – since 1989
- Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
- Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993

## Experiences to Draw on

- Annual RVP change over – since 1989
- Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
- Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993
- Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995

## Experiences to Draw on

- Annual RVP change over – since 1989
- Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
- Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993
- Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
- Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998

## After Further Review

- Annual RVP change over – since 1989
- Can produce blends below the maximum RVP to facilitate turn over

## After Further Review

- Annual RVP change over – since 1989
- Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
- Plenty of room between maximum oxygen limit and minimum specification requirement

## After Further Review

- Annual RVP change over – since 1989
- Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
- Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
- Very similar to RVP change over

## After Further Review

- Annual RVP change over – since 1989
- Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
- Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
- Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998
- Again, very similar to RVP change over

## After Further Review

- Annual RVP change over – since 1989
- Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992
- Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995
- Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998
- Introduction of Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel – 1993
- Some things are the same
- Some things are different

## After Further, Further Review

- Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel in 1993 will be the closest parallel for ULSD

## Things That Are The Same

- Introduction of new product

## Things That Are The Same

- Introduction of new product
- Drop dead compliance date

## Things That Are The Same

- Introduction of new product
- Drop dead compliance date
- Immediate demand for product

## Things That Are The Same

- Introduction of new product
- Drop dead compliance date
- Immediate demand for product
- Choices to make

## Things That Are The Same

- Introduction of new product
- Drop dead compliance date
- Immediate demand for product
- Choices to make
- Adjustments to operations

## Things That Are The Same

- Introduction of new product
- Drop dead compliance date
- Immediate demand for product
- Choices to make
- Adjustments to operations
- Division of facilities or new construction

## Things That Are Different

- Competing product still being marketed

## Things That Are Different

- Competing product still being marketed
- Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0

## Things That Are Different

- Competing product still being marketed
- Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0
- Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is...

## Things That Are Different

- Competing product still being marketed
- Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0
- Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is...
- Choices are short term

## Things That Are Different

- Competing product still being marketed
- Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0
- Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is...
- Choices are short term
- Radical changes to operations

## Things That Are Different

- Competing product still being marketed
- Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0
- Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is...
- Choices are short term
- Radical changes to operations
- Sulfur Credits

## Things That Are Different

- Competing product still being marketed
- Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0
- Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is...
- Choices are short term
- Radical changes to operations
- Sulfur Credits
- Small refinery exclusion

## Things That Are Different

- Competing product still being marketed
- Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0
- Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is...
- Choices are short term
- Radical changes to operations
- Sulfur Credits
- Small refinery exclusion
- Degrees of magnitude 3000 – 500 vs 400 - 15

## Physical Transition, Initial  staging

- June 1 – July ?

## Physical Transition, Initial  staging

- June 1 – July ?
- Won’t be without problems

## Physical Transition, Initial  staging

- June 1 – July ?
- Won’t be without problems
- We have “outs” at this point

## Physical Transition, Initial  staging

- June 1 – July ?
- Won’t be without problems
- We have “outs” at this point
- Downgrades
-  Little or no demand
-  Time

## Now Things Get Interesting

- July ? – August 31

## Now Things Get Interesting

- July ? – August 31
- Pace of downstream conversions

## Now Things Get Interesting

- July ? – August 31
- Pace of downstream conversions
- Who/how many will handle both products?

## Now Things Get Interesting

- July ? – August 31
- Pace of downstream conversions
- Who/how many will handle both products?
- Price differential vs inventory

## Now Things Get Interesting

- July ? – August 31
- Pace of downstream conversions
- Who/how many will handle both products?
- Price differential vs inventory
- Use of Credits?

## Now Things Get Interesting

- July ? –  August 31
- Pace of downstream conversions
- Who/how many will handle both products?
- Price differential vs inventory
- Use of Credits?
- Out of the wood work/None to be had

## September 1, 2006

- A non-event

## September 1, 2006

- A non-event
- No overnight change

## September 1, 2006

- A non-event
- No overnight change
- Production control, 80/20

## September 1, 2006

- A non-event
- No overnight change
- Production control, 80/20
- No major distribution problems

## Transition to 15 ppmULSD 

***Transition to 15 ppm******ULSD ***