# Presentation: 662267

## FUTURES FORUM ON RECREATIONAL BOATING

_***Trends and the Significance of Demographic Shifts***_

**Ken Cordell **
**Gary Green**
**U.S. Forest Service,**
**Athens, Georgia**
**AND**
**Becky Stephens**
**University of Tenn.**

_**www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends**_

**FUTURES FORUM ON RECREATIONAL BOATING**

## NSRE

_***NSRE***_

***NATIONAL SURVEY ON RECREATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT***
***SINCE 1960***
_***THE UNITED STATES’ ON-GOING NATIONAL RECREATION SURVEY***_

## 1960:

**1960:**
**Flower Children, **
**18-horse Johnson, **
**VW Camper Vans,**
**Elvis and The Beatles, **
**Vietnam, Kennedy,**
**Family Vacations,**
**Chevy Impala V8**

## 2001:INTERNET, WILD STOCK RIDE, HONDA SUVs, BUSH/GLOBAL WARMING, WEALTH, INTERSTATES, B2 STEALTH, JOBS, GROWTH, ADVENTURE RECREATION

**2001:****INTERNET, WILD STOCK RIDE, HONDA SUVs, BUSH/GLOBAL WARMING, WEALTH, INTERSTATES, B2 STEALTH, JOBS, GROWTH, ADVENTURE RECREATION**

## LONG-TERM TRENDS

_***LONG-TERM***_
_*** ***__***TRENDS***_

## Slide 6

## RECENT TRENDS

## Trends

- 1980's

-  	Almost 90 percent of Americans 	participated in Outdoor Recreation
-  	Walking, picnicking, sightseeing,
-    swimming, fishing, and bicycling
-    the most popular activities

- 1990's

-  	94.5 percent participated
-  	List of pursuits getting longer, 	more diverse
-  	Walking, sightseeing, swimming, 	picnicking, boating most popular

## NOW

**NOW**

**Over 97 percent report activities**
**Most are adding to their ****	****recreation menu**
**Living longer means staying ****	****active longer**

## Shifts in Outdoor Recreation Markets

** ****	****Technology ****	****innovations are ****	****making more areas, ****	****more accessible:**
**	****-****	****Jet boats**
**	****-****	****Light-weight gear**
**	****-****	****Sub-zero sports ****	****	****	****clothing**
**	****-****	****Sticky climbing ****	****	****	****shoes**
**	****-****	****Night scopes**

** ****	****Risk/Adventure ****	****pursuits are gaining ****	****in popularity:**
**	****-****	****Base jumping**
**	****-****	****Falls shooting**
**	****-****	****Mountain ****	****	****	****boarding**
**	****-  “Jet skiing”**

** ****	****Traditional outdoor activities ****	****still growing (moderately); ****	****consumptive activities ****	****declining; viewing/learning ****	****activities on the rise.**

## Activities Adding the Most Participants 16 or older, 1982-2001

_**Activities Adding the Most Participants 16 or older, 1982-2001**_

**	****	****	**_**Millions**_
**	**_**Growth**_**	**_**No. in 2000**_
**Walking****	****	****85.4****	****	****179.0**
**Bird watching****	****	****50.0****	****	****71.2**
**Hiking****	****	****48.4****	****	****73.1**
**Swimming/river,**
**  ****lake, or ocean****	****	****36.4****	****	****92.9**
**Sightseeing****	****	****32.7****	****	****114.0**
**Picnicking****	****	****31.8****	****	****116.6**
**Bicycling****	****	****27.4****	****	****83.9**
**Developed camping****	****	****22.8****	****	****52.8**
**Motor boating****	****	****17.8****	****	****51.4**
**Off-road driving****	****	****17.3****	****	****36.7**
**Backpacking****	****	****14.6****	****	****23.4**

## Regions Where Participants Reside

| Type of Activity | Millions of Participants |  |  |  | National |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | South | North | Rocky Mtn./
Great Plains | Pacific Coast |  |
| Trail/street/road | 59.6 | 82.6 | 15.7 | 30.4 | 188.4 |
| Viewing/learning | 44.5 | 66.2 | 12.4 | 23.1 | 146.1 |
| Camping | 18.5 | 27.4 | 7.5 | 12.4 | 66.5 |
| Hunting | 8.8 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 23.7 |
| Outdoor adventure | 35.2 | 50.5 | 11.1 | 19.8 | 117.0 |
| Boating/floating | 23.6 | 35.3 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 76.5 |
| Fishing | 26.8 | 29.2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 72.4 |
| Swimming | 40.1 | 57.6 | 9.2 | 21.2 | 127.4 |
| Skiing/sledding/ snowmobiling | 8.9 | 31.9 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 54.4 |
| Outdoor team sport | 14.6 | 21.3 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 46.9 |
| Social activities | 53.3 | 74.6 | 14.4 | 27.6 | 169.9 |

_**Regions Where Participants Reside**_

## Percentage of Americans 16 and Older 

_**Percentage of Americans 16 and Older **_

## Percentage of Americans 16 and Older 

_**Percentage of Americans 16 and Older **_
**(2001)**

## Comparison of South Carolina, South, and Nation

_**Comparison of South Carolina, South, and Nation**_
**(Percentage Participating)**

## Our Changing American Society

_**Our Changing American Society**_

-  **About ****1 million**** new immigrants per year**
** **_**More people**_**:****	****1990****	****	****248 mm**
**	****	****	****2000****	****	****275 mm**
**	****	****	****2020****	****	****325 mm**
**	****	****	****2050****	****	****404 mm**
**	****	****	****2075****	****	****481 mm**
**	****	****	****2100****	****	****571 mm (Double)**
** **_**Getting older**_**:  Median age 35********38 (by 2020)**
** **_**Changing ethnicities**_** by 2050:**
**	****	****Anglo Americans ****	****	****76%********50%**
**	****	****African Americans****	**** ****	****12% ********15%**
**	****	****Hispanic Americans****	****  ****	****  ****9% ********21%**
**	****	****Asian Americans****	****	****  ****4% ********11%**

## Projected Demand to 2020

- Forecasts

**	****Millions****	****     Indexed Change**
**	****Participating****	****    (Base year is 1995)**
**Activities****	****(1995)****	****People****	****Days****	****Trips**
_**Water-Based**_
**Going to the Beach****	****124****	****1.24****	****1.17****	****1.17**
**Motor Boating****	**** 47****	****1.21****	****1.14****	****1.16**
**Swimming****	**** 78****	****1.21****	****1.12****	****1.09**
**Fishing****	**** 58****	****1.17****	****1.17****	****1.10**
**Canoeing****	**** 14****	****1.15****	****1.28****	****1.14**
**Rafting/Floating****	**** 15****	****1.07****	****1.17****	****1.10**
_**Winter-Based**_
**Cross-Country Skiing****	****  6****	****1.26****	****0.96****	****1.12**
**Downhill Skiing****	**** 17****	****1.22****	****1.31****	****1.36**
**Snowmobiling****	****  7****	****1.09****	****1.32****	****1.35**

- Forecasts

## Projected Demand to 2020

- Forecasts

**	****Millions****	****    Indexed Change**
**	****Participating****	****  (Base year is 1995)**
**Activities****	****(1995)****	****People****	****Days****	****Trips**
_**Land-Based**_
**Sightseeing****	****113****	****1.32****	****1.43****	****1.43**
**Non-consumptive wildlife****	****117****	****1.29****	****1.09****	****1.15**
**Biking****	**** 57****	****1.28****	****1.25****	****1.45**
**Family Gatherings****	****124****	****1.24****	****1.23****	****0.83**
**Hiking****	**** 48****	****1.23****	****1.24****	****1.23**
**Horseback Riding****	**** 14****	****1.23****	****1.22****	****1.29**
**Rock Climbing****	****  8****	****1.21****	****1.15****	****1.03**
**Walking****	****134****	****1.21****	****1.29****	**** --**
**Camping****	**** 42****	****1.19****	****1.36****	****1.30**
**Backpacking****	**** 15****	****1.11****	****1.15****	****1.08**
**Off-Road Driving****	**** 28****	****1.05****	****0.99****	****1.06**
**Hunting****	**** 19****	****0.91****	****0.99****	****1.03**

- Forecasts

## DEMOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINTS OF BOATERS

**DEMOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINTS OF BOATERS**

## CANOERS

**CANOERS**
**43 % female**
**87 % non-Hispanic white**
**33 % under 25, 77 % under 45**
**Incomes mostly between $25K ****	****and $75K**
**Under 80 % urban**
**Favored by Northeasterners and ****	****Midwesterners**

## KAYAKERS

**KAYAKERS**
**44 % female**
**85 % non-Hispanic white**
**60 percent under 35, 40% under 25**
**Over 1/3 earn under $25K**
**85 % urban**
**Heavier participation in New ****	****England and Pacific Coast states**

## SAILERS

**SAILERS**
**48 % female**
**84% Non-Hispanic white**
**44 % under 35**
**Middle income earners, also sig- ****	****nificant high income earners**
**87 % urban**
**Especially favored in the North-****	****east**

## WINDSURFERS

**WINDSURFERS**
**67 % male**
**Almost 1⁄2 under 25, 56 % ****	****under 35**
**1/3 between $25-$50K, 1/3 over ****	****$100K**
**Northeast and Pacific Coast**

## MOTOR BOATERS

**MOTOR BOATERS**

**52% between $25 and $75**
**77% urban**
**Favored in the Lake, Midwest ****	****and South Atlantic**** states**
**58 % between 25 and 55**
**57 % male**

## WATER SKIERS

**WATER SKIERS**

**60 % male**
**86 % white, 8 % Hispanic**
**86 % under 45**
**Favored by Prairie and Mountain states residents **

## PERSONAL WATER CRAFT

**PERSONAL WATER CRAFT**

**54 % male**
**79 % white, 11 percent Hispanic**
**66 % under 35**
**Favored in the Midwest and South**

## Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by race and country.

| Group | Walking | Swimming Outdoors | Hiking | Motor
Boating | Downhill Skiing | Big Game Hunting |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Percent of Total Population | 
83.8 | 
43.8 | 
33.4 | 
24.4 | 
8.3 | 
8.2 |
| Race/Ethnicity |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| White | 1.02 | 1.15 | 1.03 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.28 |
| Black | 1.00 | 0.49 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Americn Indian | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.57 | 2.00 |
| Asian/ PI | 1.08 | 0.92 | 0.96 | 0.54 | 1.46 | 0.23 |
| Hispanic | 0.88 | 0.75 | 1.42 | 0.50 | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| Place of Birth |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| United States | 1.02 | 1.04 | 0.93 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.07 |
| Another Country | 0.81 | 0.56 | 1.67 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.30 |

**Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by race and country.**

## Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by age and income.

| Group | Walking | Swimming Outdoors | Hiking | Motor Boating | Downhill Skiing | Big Game Hunting |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Percent of Total Population | 83.8 | 43.8 | 33.4 | 24.4 | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| Age |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 16-24 | 1.02 | 1.37 | 1.11 | 1.24 | 1.89 | 1.17 |
| 25-34 | 1.01 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| 35-44 | 1.03 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.13 |
| 45-54 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 0.99 |
| 55-64 | 0.98 | 0.68 | 0.78 | 0.81 | 0.32 | 0.82 |
| 65+ | 0.94 | 0.37 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| Income |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| <$15,000 | 0.91 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 0.57 | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| $15,000-$24,999 | 0.98 | 0.79 | 0.98 | 0.63 | 0.41 | 0.81 |
| $25,000-$49,000 | 1.02 | 1.10 | 1.04 | 1.07 | 0.75 | 1.31 |
| $50,000-$74,999 | 1.08 | 1.28 | 1.11 | 1.36 | 1.17 | 1.38 |
| $75,000-$99,999 | 1.09 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.59 | 1.86 | 1.21 |
| $100,000+ | 1.09 | 1.43 | 1.29 | 1.67 | 2.76 | 1.09 |

**Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by age and income.**

## BEING MORE EFFECTIVE IN OUTREACH, LISTENING, AND  INFORMING

## Segmenting for more effective 

**Young**
**New England**
**Wind Surfers**
**	****(0.9%)**

**Nature**
**Lovers**
**(27.2%)**

**The Inactives**
**(22.0%)**

**The Urban**
**Beach Boys**
**(3.8%)**

**The Noreaster**
**Musclers (6.2%)**

**The Thrill**
**Seekers (8.3%)**

**Hunt-n-Fish**
**Men’s Motor Club**
**(6.3%)**

**The Take it Easies**
**(25.3%)**

**Segmenting for more effective **
**communication and education**

## Nature Lovers (27.2%)

**Viewing/photographing birds, flowers, wildlife, fish, natural scenery, and gathering mushrooms and berries, and learning in nature centers, visitor centers, historic sites and archeological sites**
**Not into hunting, fishing, active sports or motorized activities, and ****not into boating**
**61 % female, mostly white, middle aged and seniors, not foreign born**
**New England and Prairie states well represented**
**Donate to civic or charitable organizations, spend time with grand children, invest, creative arts, collect things and garden, and read environmental magazines**
**Believe humans are abusing the earth, the balance is delicate, and we are on a course for catastrophe**

_**Nature Lovers **__**(27.2%)**_

## Hunt-n-Fish Men’s Motor Club (6.3%)

**Hunt-n-Fish Men’s**** ****Motor Club**** (6.3%)**

**Hunt, fish, motorized, camp, ****motorboat (53%), canoe**
**Don’t participate in beach activities or much in viewing/learning**
**88% male, 90% white, under 45, U.S. born, much more rural, Prairie and Southern**
**Belong to wildlife conservation group, read nature magazines, woodworking, own a business, garden, have pets and do home improvements**
**Humans were meant to rule over the earth and environmental crisis is exaggerated**

## The Urban Beach Boys (3.8%)

**The Urban Beach Boys (3.8%)**

**Diving, Surfing, Snorkeling, ****Kayaking, Sailing****, Backpacking, Snowboarding, Saltwater Fishing, ****Water Skiing****, ****Jet Skiing****. more active than most people in most activities, except hunting**
**Two-thirds white, Asian/Pacific Islanders well represented, majority under 35, U.S. born, and urban**
**South Atlantic and Pacific Coast**
**Regularly like to go to movies, use internet at home, participate in environmental groups, invest, and attend classes, involved as a youth volunteer, into the arts**
**Like most Americans feel humans are abusing the earth, we’re on a course for ecological catastrophe and the balance of nature is delicate**

## Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9%)

**Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9%)**

**Wind surfing (71%)****, surfing, ****kayaking (48%), **
**   ****sailing (68%)****, non-motorized winter activities,**
**   ****diving, snorkeling, ****rowing (28%) and canoeing (55%)**
**More active than most Americans in **_**all**_** activities, including water and jet skiing**
**Over 85% white; two-thirds male; one half under 25; urban, U.S. born**
**New England and Pacific Coast residents strongly represented**
**Into movies, lifelong learning classes, participate with environmental groups, regularly attend movies, belong to a country club, on the internet and into the stock market**
**More strongly believe environmental crisis is greatly exaggerated, even though we are nearing the earth’s limits**

## The Inactives (22.0%)

**The Inactives**** ****(22.0%)**

**Not very active in outdoor activities, except for a bit of walking, family gatherings, and picnicking**
**55% female, blacks and Hispanic well represented, spread across age groups, mostly urban and U.S. born**
**Spend time with grandchildren, cook at home, regularly attend religious services, collect things like coins and antiques **
**More strongly believe human ingenuity will insure the earth, humans were meant to rule over nature, humans can control nature, and the environmental crisis is exaggerated**

## The Noreaster Musclers (6.2%)

**The Noreaster Musclers**** (6.2%)**

**Cross-country skiing, ****rowing (31%), kayaking (28%), canoeing (53%)****, downhill skiing, ****sailing (25%)****, hiking, visiting a wilderness, backpacking, snowboarding, bicycling and fishing**
**They don’t hunt, but are active in most other activities**
**Somewhat more male than female, white and Asian/Pacific Islander, young to middle aged (not seniors), urban, from New England, Prairie, Mountain and Pacific states**
**Members of conservation groups, use the internet at home, attend concerts, have vacation property, invest, belong to a country club**
**More belief that we are abusing the earth, the balance of nature is delicate and we may be heading for disaster**

## The Thrill Seekers (8.3%)

**The Thrill Seekers ****(8.3%)**

**Waterskiing (62%), jet skiing (68%), rafting (46%)****, snowmobiling,  snowboarding, ****motorboating (83%)****, downhill skiing, driving off-road, ****rowing and canoeing**
**Very active across a large number of activities**
**Equally male/female, white and American Indians well represented, two thirds under 35, almost all born in the U.S., from Plains states**
**Youth volunteers, belong to a country club, use the internet, attend movies, watch sports on TV, gather with friends and neighbors**
**Balance of nature is delicate, humans are abusing the earth, and a disaster is looming**

## The Take it Easies (25.3%)

**The Take it Easies (25.3%)**

**Sightseeing, driving for pleasure, picnicking, visiting historic sites, family gatherings, visiting nature centers, and walking**
**They don’t ski, boat, hunt, fish, or view/photograph**
**More female than male, Blacks and Asian/Pacific Islander well represented, all ages, all regions**
**Attend cultural events, go to movies and church, raise children and spend time with grandchildren, use the internet, and eat out**
**Believe humans can insure the liveability of the earth and the environmental crisis is exaggerated**

## THE PUBLIC IS CONCERNED ABOUT OUR ENVIRONMENT

**THE PUBLIC IS CONCERNED ABOUT OUR ENVIRONMENT**

## Source: Roper Organization, 1990; Times Mirror, 1994; NEETF, 1998.

## Percentages Indicating Environmental Protection

**Percentages Indicating Environmental Protection**
**or Economic Development are Highest Priority**

- Source: Gallup/CNN/USA Today Poll, April 13-14, 1999.

## SUMMARY POINTS

**Our society has changed dramatically in the last few decades, and it shows up in our outdoor recreation**
**Outdoor recreation is growing and diversifying as a part of Americans’ lifestyles, almost everyone is involved at some level**
**Walking, birding, hiking, swimming are at the top of the activity growth list, not far behind is motor boating**

## SUMMARY CONTINUED

**Population is likely to continue its rapid growth in the next few decades, with some groups literally exploding in numbers**
**Increasingly we see women, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, older and urban people participating, although outdoor recreation is still very much a white male pursuit**
**All indicators point to continuation of the rise of outdoor recreation in the future, and more demands on water and land resources**
**At the same time people are showing strong concern for the environment and its water and land resources**
**Resource managers will be challenged like never before, and, there will be increasing needs for more effective sharing of information about safety and impacts**
**Need to be smart about outreach and education strategies**

## www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends

**www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends**