# Presentation: 128629

## SEER:  The Current Statepresented to NASA CAS 2005

***presented by******Bob Hunt, V.P. Services***

## Galorath Mission Statement

***Help engineers, managers and cost analysts plan and control critical projects with advanced modeling tools and services:***
**This is accomplished by providing:**
- 1. **SEER** **software**** **for management planning & control and for cost analysis;
- 2. User **training** in tool implementation and methodology to enhance decision making and process refinement
- 3. Product **tailoring** to meet customer specific requirements
- 4. Management planning, control and cost** services** to assist in the implementation of the tools and methodologies
***SEER: Empowering project estimation, planning & control***

## SEER Products Provide Complete Total Cost of Ownership Solutions

**SEER Products Provide Complete Total Cost of Ownership Solutions**

** ****SEER-H with *****Total System Vision***
***Estimate and Analyze the Development, Production, Operations & Support and ******System Level Costs***
***Integrating your****** ******SEER-SEM****** (software)****** and****** ******SEER-DFM****** (detail production)****** estimates into a single project rollup with complete associativity ***
** ****The SEER Software Estimation and Project Control Suite****  **
***Estimate and Analyze the Development and Maintenance of Software Projects with respect to Cost, Schedule, Effort, Risk and Reliability***** **
** ****SEER-DFM *****(Design for Manufacturability)***** **
***Estimate and Analyze Detail Production Costs*** ***– ******Part Labor Costs, Tooling Costs, Material Costs***

## SEER Products 

** ****SEER Lifecycle Cost Evaluation**
***SEER-H with Total System Vision  ***
***SEER-Spyglass***
***SEER-IC***
** ****The SEER Software Estimation and Project Control Suite****  **
***SEER-SEM (Software Estimation Model) ***
***SEER-AccuScope  ***
***SEER-SEM Client for MS Project  ***
***SEER-PPMC (Parametric Project Monitoring and Control)  ***
***SEER-ScatterPlot  ***
***SEER-ProjectMiner ***
** ****SEER-DFM (Design for Manufacturability) **
***Machining ***
***Mold/Cast/Forge***
***Finishing***
***Electrical Assembly***
***Printed Circuit Board Assembly***
***Mechanical Assembly***
***Fabrication***
***3 Levels of Composites***
***SEER-RateMaker***

## What Does SEER-H Estimate?

***System Level Cost Estimation***
**System program management**
**System engineering and integration**
**System test operations**
**System integration, assembly and test**
**System support equipment **
***Development Estimation***
**Design**
**Prototypes**
**Tooling**
***Production Estimation***
**Direct Labor--fabrication, integration, assembly**
**Indirect Labor-**
**production support, overhead, Management, etc.**
**Material--raw materials, purchased components**
***Operations & Support Scenario Estimation***
**Program schedule**
**Product reliability**
**Product maintainability**
**Product availability**

## System Level Costs

**System Level Cost analysis can be added to your SEER-H estimate by setting parameters at the project or rollup level.**
-  **When applied, it takes into account all child work elements (**_***including software***_**) in every branch that leads to the rollup. **
**It considers these work elements to be collectively designed to fulfill a common, non-trivial ** **purpose, preparation for which requires incurring costs above and beyond their standalone costs and the costs of creating the appropriate interfaces for the individual elements. **
**System Level Costs use the labor and material costs of the subsystems along with system level complexity factors to compute system level costs.**
**System level costs are reported for both recurring and non-recurring activities.**

## System Level Cost - Outputs

**SLC: An initiative to incorporate system level costs into SEER-H**
**Purpose: to allow estimators to include both subsystem and system level costs in a single estimate**
**Initial data research effort funded by NASA IPAO**
**Main source of data:  NAFCOM 2002 database**
**Other sources: Industry survey, in-house data and expert opinion**
**Up to five distinct system level cost increments can be estimated (or omitted if deemed inappropriate) in development:**
- System program management (SPM)
- System engineering and integration (SEI)
- System test operations (STO)
- System integration, assembly and test (IAT)
- System support equipment (SSE)
**Up to three distinct system level cost increments can be estimated (or omitted if deemed inappropriate) in production: SPM; SEI; IAT**

## Spyglass Plug-in Overview

**Spyglass Work Elements**
***Optical Telescope Assembly***
***Focal Plane Array***
***Mechanisms***
***Cooling***
***Calibrator***
***Integration and Test***
**Mix and match Spyglass elements with standard SEER-H elements for the best possible cost model**
**Software Elements may be linked in from SEER-SEM**

**Spyglass Plug-in Overview**

- Mix and match work element types to build an estimation breakdown structure

## Spyglass Plug-in Overview

**Each Spyglass element has an associated list of Technologies.**
**The Technology selection will determine the list of KTPPs for a given element and a given technology.**

**Spyglass Plug-in Overview**

## What is SEER-DFM?

**Bottoms –Up Parametric Cost Model**
- Based on Standards
- Parametric Forecasting
- Estimates At the Process Level
**Estimates Average Unit and Total Production costs**
- Labor
- Material
- Tooling
**Bases Estimates on Process Parameters**
- Part Size, Process Types and Steps, Lot Size, Etc.
**Provides Design Team with the ability to make smart decisions from the “Back of the Napkin” to the CAD Program Phases, **
- Which Reduces Downstream Manufacturing Costs
- Provides the Design Team with Real Time Cost Feedback
- Provides a Systematic Repeatable Estimating Process
**Reports Production Cost estimates in a variety of formats**

##         What Does SEER-DFM Estimate?

- Project & Part Roll Up Levels
- Site or Work Centers
- Total & Average Project and Unit Production Costs for
- Part  Labor Costs
- Tooling Costs
- Material Costs
- The Manufacturing Process Level
- Key Process drivers, Part Raw & Finished Weights, Key Process Variables and their Impacts on total Cost
- Set Up Cost
- Run Cost
- Rework Cost
- Inspection Cost
- Material Cost
- Tooling Cost
- Answers the Design Team’s Question
- 					 “Which Way do we Go”

## Basic SEER-DFM Manufacturing Processes

**Basic SEER-DFM Manufacturing ****Processes**

## Basic SEER-DFM Manufacturing Processes (cont.)

**Finishing**
- 	Air Gun Spray	Thermal Spray
- 	Electrostatic	Vacuum Metalize
- 	Dip		Chromate/Phosphate
- 	Electrocoat	Electroplate
- 	Brush
**PC Board Assembly**
- 	Board Fabrication
- 	PCB Assembly/Solder
**Electrical Assembly**
- 	Cable
- 	Harness

## What Does SEER-SEM Do?

**SEER-SEM uses a combination of:**
- Sizing metrics and techniques (SLOC, Function Points and others),
- Parametric algorithms
- Knowledge Bases (industry data),
- Simulation-based probability analysis techniques, and
- User supplied data
**to *****estimate***** and *****analyze *****the development and maintenance of software projects...**
**with respect to**
**Cost**
**Schedule**
**Effort**
**Risk** (probability of success)
**Reliability**  (Defects)

## SEER:  Process Focus (CMMI)

**Project Planning**
- Establish Estimates
- Develop a Project Plan
- Obtain Commitment to the Plan
**Project Monitoring and Control**
- Monitor Project Against Plan
- Manage Corrective Action to Closure
**Measurement and Analysis**
- Align Measurement and Analysis Activities
- Provide Measurement Results

## SEER:  Methods

**Project Planning**
- History-Based Sizing
- Direct Measure Sizing
- Parametric Estimation
**Project Monitoring and Control**
- 4-D Performance Measurement
- At-a-Glance Status Indication
- Performance-based Prediction
**Measurement and Analysis**
- Estimation Accuracy Assessment and Improvement
- Calibration
- Knowledge Base Management
- Benchmarking

## SEER: Tools

**Project Planning**
- SEER-AccuScope
- SEER-SEM
*Project Miner **(SEER-SEM option)*
- SEER-H
- SEER-IC
- SEER-DFM
- SEER-SEM Client for Microsoft Project *(SEER-SEM option)*
**Project Monitoring and Control**
*Parametric Project Monitoring and Control **(SEER-SEM option)*
**Measurement and Analysis**
- SEER-RDB
*SEER-ScatterPlot **(SEER-SEM option)*
**Databases**
*SEER-DB*
- SEER-RDB

- SEER-SEM

- PPMC

## A Common Question

***In SEER-SEM, can I enter my actual effort once the project is underway and will the tool recalibrate my estimate?***
**The right answer is NO - it’s not enough just to give actual hours**
- Just because you spent 50% of a planned budget doesn’t mean your are 50% done
**What the project manager needs to know:**
- How much more money, how many people, for how long?
- How can the project be adjusted to meet objectives?
**To do this, you need assess the project status in terms of progress, not just in terms of expenditure**

## Software Project ManagementFully Managed Project

## What is PPMC?Features

**A set of add-on features to SEER-SEM that enable project monitoring and control of software development projects**
**Features include:**
- Inputs for actual effort and project progress as well as for certain project metrics
- Performance Measurement calculations
- Reporting to provide information on project status
**PPMC employs 4-D Performance Measurement**
- Activity Completion
- Expenditures
- Artifact Completion
- Defect Discovery/Removal

_**P**_arametric _**P**_erformance _**M**_onitoring and _**C**_ontrol

## Why PPMC?Benefits

**Performance Measurement is considered a best practice for monitoring and controlling software projects**
**Performance Measurement can be improved:**
- More fidelity in determining progress (Earned Value)
- Better prediction and re-baselining capability by coupling to-date performance with established estimation methods
**PPMC adds monitoring and control capabilities to SEER-SEM by combining:**
- Accepted algorithms currently used for cost and schedule estimation during the project planning process
- Accepted equations currently used for traditional Performance Measurement

_**P**_arametric _**P**_roject _**M**_onitoring and _**C**_ontrol

## Performance Measurement:Measures and Metrics

**Fundamental Cost of Work Measures**
***Baseline Budget*** – Budget at Completion (BAC)
***Planned –*** Budgeted Cost of the Work Scheduled (BCWS)
***Earned –*** Budgeted Cost of the Work Performed (BCWP)
***Spent –*** Actual Cost of the Work Performed (ACWP)
**Variances (Differences between Cost of Work Measures)**
- Schedule Variance (SV)
- Cost Variance (CV)
- Budget Variance (BV)
- Time Variance (TV)

## Performance Measurement:Measures and Metrics

**Performance Indices – (Ratios Between Cost of Work Measures)**
- Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
- Cost Performance Index (CPI)
- Budget Performance Index (BPI)
- Time Performance Index (TPI)
- Composite Performance Index (XPI)
- To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
**Status and Forecasting Metrics**
- Estimate at Completion (EAC)
- Estimate to Complete (ETC)

## Tracking a Project

**Once a project is started, the PPMC process may begin**
**Start with a SEER-SEM “Current Estimate”**
**Upon approval, make the “Current Estimate” the Baseline**
**Measure project progress and expenditure periodically and/or aperiodically and record data “Snapshots”**
**At each “Snapshot” point in time:**
- Analyze all of the various Performance Measurement metrics and indicators and identify potential problems
- Report analysis findings to stakeholders
**Replan (revisit the estimate) as required**
- Modify “Current Estimate” in SEER-SEM until it reasonably matches actual progress (BCWP) and actual expenditure (ACWP) to date
- Upon approval, save the current Baseline and then make the “Current Estimate” the new Baseline

## The Baseline

**A baseline freezes the current estimate**
**The baseline provides the yardstick against which the project is tracked and evaluated**
**Allows you to do trades with the current estimate while maintaining the planning baseline**
**A baseline can be updated at any time**
**The current estimate may be set back to the baseline at any time**

## The Snapshot

**Snapshots are a picture of the project’s metrics at any give point in time**
**The snapshot includes two key components:**
- Work Complete
- Actual Effort
**Work Complete describes the progress in terms of milestone completion**
**Actual Effort includes hours as well as size and defect metrics**
**Snapshots are flexible in terms of interval or frequency**
- Regular snapshots – e.g. monthly or quarterly
- As needed – e.g. before a key review

## Reporting

**PPMC reports and charts are based on the most recent snapshot entered**
**Work complete metrics are used to evaluate remaining effort and schedule (Estimate To Complete)**
**Estimate At Complete = Actual Effort + ETC**

## Example Project: Metrics Charts at Project Start (Initial Plan)

## Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Software Requirements Review

## Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Preliminary Design Review

## Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Critical Design Review

## Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Code & Unit Test Complete

## Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Component Integration Complete

## Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Program Test Complete

## Example Project: Metrics Chartsat Delivery

## PPMC: Summary

**Enables powerful evaluation of a project’s progress**
**Utilizes Performance Measurement best practices**
**Capitalizes on parametric model’s ability to replan and forecast based on current project assumptions**
**Flexible – doesn’t require regular care and feeding, you can use it only when you need to**
**Provides a significant contribution to the project management continuum**
** **

- SEER-SEM

- PPMC

## SEER TRAINING

**     ****SEER-H and SEER-SEM**
-   **Core Training**
-   3 Days of presentation, discussion and extensive hands-on
-         exercises and case studies
-   Public Workshop – available quarterly (Galorath HQ – El Segundo, CA)
-   Private (on-site)
-   **Advanced Training**
-   2 Days more sophisticated use of the tools, integration and
-         customization as well as introductions to specialized SEER add-ons
-   Public Workshop – available quarterly (Galorath HQ – El Segundo, CA)
-   Private (on-site)
**     ****SEER-DFM **
-  4 to 5 Days of presentation, discussion and extensive hands-on
-         exercises and case studies
-   Private (on-site)

## SEER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES

**  ****The mission of our Professional Services branch is to *****ensure our customer’s success by providing world-class capabilities in the application of Galorath products to real-world projects.***** **
**  ****QuickStart Assessment (QSA)**
**  ****Implementation Services**
**  ****JumpStart Program ***
**  ****Estimating and Proposal Support**
**  ****Independent Cost Estimation**
**  ****Custom Modeling Solutions**
- * *NASA has prepaid JumpStarts available.*

## 
+1 (310) 414-3222  US
(703-201-0651)

info@galorath.com
www.galorath.com

+44 (0) 1252 720 629 UK

**+1 (310) 414-3222  US**
**(703-201-0651)**
_**[info@galorath.com](mailto:info@galorath.com)**_
**www.galorath.com**
**+44 (0) 1252 720 629 UK**

**For More Information****Please contact us at:**

**Headquarters: El Segundo, CA**

**International HQ: Farnham, UK**