# Presentation: 033974

## The Multiple Benefits of Reducing Greenhouse Gases

- Leland Deck, Ph.D.
- Vice President, Abt Associates Inc.
- Bethesda, Maryland  and Cambridge, Massachusetts
- Co-Benefit Analysis
- The Link Between GHG Emission Reductions, Conventional Air Pollution, and Avoidable Health Effects
- Preliminary (and On-going) US EPA Case Study of Wisconsin Climate Change Action Plan

- EPA 5th State & Local Climate Change Partners Conference

## Basics of Co-Benefit Analysis

- Several Terms Associated With “Co-Benefits” Concept
- Ancillary Benefits   (IPCC)
- Harmonized Strategy Development
- Reducing GHG Emissions Will Generally Reduce Emissions of Conventional Air Pollutants
- Key Emissions Also Reduced are NOx, SOx
- Reverse is Sometimes True
- Conventional Air Pollutants of Concern are Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5) and Ozone
- These are Secondarily Formed Pollutants, not Directly Emitted
- Reducing PM and Ozone Will Result in “Immediate” Reductions in Respiratory Diseases and Death
- Allows More Comprehensive Analysis of GHG Policies

- EPA 5th State & Local Climate Change Partners Conference

## Wisconsin Climate Change Action Plan

- Wisconsin DNR Released 4 Part Study in 1998
- First Phase: Voluntary State-Based Approach to Reducing Growth of GHG Emissions
- Baseline Growth Predictions are 28% Growth from 1990 to 2010 (140 million tons to 180 million tons CO2)
- Identified Set of “No-Regrets” Actions
- Wisconsin State Government To Lead by Example
- Voluntary Actions by Industry, Citizens
- Energy Efficiency  &   Fuel Switching

- EPA 5th State & Local Climate Change Partners Conference

## Wisconsin GHG Emissions Reduction Cost Study Details

- Analyzed Policy Options up to $30/Ton Carbon
- Reduces carbon dioxide emissions by 21 Million Tons in 2010
- Emphasizes Energy Efficiency
- Cleaner Energy: Fuel Switching in Electricity Generation
- Coal to Natural Gas (Cost: $460 million)
- Significant Reductions in 2010 Conventional Emissions
- Sulfur:  127,000 Ton Reduction in SOx,  or  87% of State Total
- Nitrogen:  33,000 Ton Reduction in NOx,  or 16% of State Total

- EPA 5th State & Local Climate Change Partners Conference

## Steps in a Co-Benefit Analysis 

- Emissions Inventory
- SOx and NOx
- Future Baseline  and  Control Levels of Complete Inventory
- Air Quality Modeling
- PM 2.5 and Ozone are Secondary Formed Pollutants
- Regional AQ Modeling Required
- Estimate Future AQ Baseline  and  Control Levels
- Health Analysis
- Health Effects Below the National Standards (NAAQS)
- Acute Effects:  Pollution Today
- Chronic Effects: Lifetime Exposure

- EPA 5th State & Local Climate Change Partners Conference

## Health Effects Associated With Air Pollution

- Acute Effects from “Pollution Now”
- Premature Mortality
- Hospital Admissions
- Acute Respiratory Diseases & Symptoms
- Asthma Attacks
- Work/School Absence
- Minor Restricted Activity Days
- Chronic Effects from Lifetime Exposure
- Developing Serious Respiratory Diseases

- EPA 5th State & Local Climate Change Partners Conference

## Design of Wisconsin Co-Benefit Study

- Low Cost Study
- Use Existing Models, Methods
- EPA PM Model  (SR-Matrix)
- EPA Health Model (CAPMS)
- EPA Valuation and/or Cost of Illness Estimates
- Use Pre-Existing Analytical Results
- Emission Changes from Wisconsin Action Plan
- Emissions Inventory from EPA Analysis of NOx SIP Call
- Concentrate on Wisconsin Impacts Only
- Wisconsin-only Changes in Emissions
- Only Air Quality Changes in Wisconsin

- EPA 5th State & Local Climate Change Partners Conference

## Preliminary Results

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## Summary

- Reducing GHG Emissions Will Generally Reduce Emissions of Conventional Air Pollutants
- Study Examined 11% Reduction in GHGs by 2010 (21 million tons)
- Fuel Switching from Coal to Natural Gas
- Lower PM Results in “Immediate” Reductions in Respiratory Diseases and Death; Lower Ozone Would Add More
- Monetary Health Benefits: Approx. $1.3 Billion per Year
- Use existing EPA Models, Valuation Methods
- Additional Health, Economic Benefits From Energy Efficiency Measures

- EPA 5th State & Local Climate Change Partners Conference

## Co-Benefit Analysis Tool Coming Soon 

- COBRA Model now under Development
**CO**-**B**enefits **R**isk **A**ssessment Model
- Windows® model, designed to run fast
- New York State Model is prototype
- Will have series of single state or region models
- Includes State/Region Emission Inventory
- User can reduce a sector’s annual NOx, SO2 or direct PM emissions by a % or by a # of tons
- County, Metro Area or State-wide Reduction

- EPA 5th State & Local Climate Change Partners Conference

## COBRA Model

- PM Estimates
- Estimated in all counties impacted
- Not only in State/Region of Model
- Estimates change in PM2.5, PM10 in affected counties
- Most Impacts within a 500 km Range
- Health Estimates
- Avoided Cases of Range of Health Effects in Each Impacted County

- EPA 5th State & Local Climate Change Partners Conference