# Presentation: 513554

## Short-Term and Long-Term

***Outlook for Energy Markets***

**Guy Caruso**
**Administrator, Energy Information Administration**
**Guy. caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**Global Business Forum**
** **
**November 21, 2005**
**Washington, DC**

## Major Events and World Oil Prices

**1970-2004**

**dollars per barrel**

## Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Crude Oil Production

**Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Crude Oil Production**

**Shut In Capacity**

**WTI Crude Oil Price**

**thousand barrels per day**

**dollars per barrel**

- History

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

- Projections

## Shut-In Gulf Coast Refinery Capacity

**Shut-In Gulf Coast Refinery Capacity**

**Shut In Capacity**

**Retail Diesel Price**

**thousand barrels per day**

**cents per gallon**

**Retail Gasoline Price**

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

## Tight Global Markets Result in High Crude Oil Prices

**Tight Global Markets Result in High Crude Oil Prices**

**2005 dollars per barrel**

**million barrels per day**

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

## World Oil Demand Growth(million barrels per day)

- *Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

**3.2%**

**1.6%**

**2.2%**

## World Oil Demand Growth(million barrels per day)

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

- History

- Projections

## Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks

**Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range**

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

## U.S. Petroleum Products Demand Growth (thousand barrels per day)

**3.5%**

**-0.8%**

**2.2%**

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

## Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Natural Gas Production

**Shut In Capacity**

**Henry Hub Price ***

**Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Natural Gas Production**

- * Trading on Henry Hub suspended from 9/23 – 10/6

**billion cubic feet per day**

**dollars per thousand cubic feet**

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Natural Gas Demand Growth

**U.S. Natural Gas Demand Growth**

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Natural Gas Spot Prices(dollars per thousand cubic feet)

- History

- Projections

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005*

## World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

**Oil**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**38%**

**25%**

**8%**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**24%**

**5%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

- History

- Projections

## World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)

**Mature Market **
**Economies**

**Transitional Economies**

**Emerging **
**Economies**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**46%**

**42%**

**12%**

**Share of**
**World **
**Total**

- History

- Projections

##  World Oil Consumption and Production, 2002, 2010, and 2025 (million barrels per day)

**Consumption**

**Production**

**OPEC**
**Transitional Economies**
**Other**

*International Energy Outlook 2005*

**78.2**

**94.6**

**119.2**

**78.1**

**94.3**

**118.9**

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2005*****, December 2004**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2005*****, July 2005**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****Dec 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**