# Presentation: 658981

## Gene Shackman
gxs03@health.state.ny.us
Daniel Kellis
djk09@health.state.ny.us

- gxs03@health.state.ny.us
**Daniel Kellis**
- djk09@health.state.ny.us

**Growth or Decline****Trends in New York State WIC  participation and eligible populations**

## Topics

- New York State WIC caseload trends
- Demographic trends and projections of women, births, infants, children
- Poverty trends and indicators

## Figure 1Women, Infants and Children Participation on NYS WIC, October 1987 to May 1999 : from NUTWIC Monthly Data

**Figure 1****Women, Infants and Children Participation on NYS WIC, ****October 1987 to May 1999 : from NUTWIC Monthly Data**

## Figure 2Monthly NYS WIC Certifications of Pregnant, Breastfeeding and PostPartum Women :  January 1989 to February 1999

**Figure 2****Monthly NYS WIC Certifications of Pregnant, Breastfeeding and PostPartum Women :  January 1989 to February 1999**

## Figure 3.Number of NYS Women by Category Certifying or Subsequently certifying into the WIC Program in NYC Metropolitan Area from January 1998 to May 2000

## Figure 4.Number of Infants and Children Certifying or Subsequently Certifying into WIC Program in NYC Metropolitan Area from January 1998 to May 2000

## Figure 5Population of women in NYS of childbearing age (age 15-44).Estimates from 1980 to 1999, and projections from 1995 to 2005

**Figure 5****Population of women in NYS of childbearing age (age 15-44).****Estimates from 1980 to 1999, and projections from 1995 to 2005**

**Notes:**
The next set of figures show trends in the potential client populations, that is, women, infants and children.

Starting around 1989/ 1990, the total number of women of childbearing age in New York State has been declining.  The decline is expected to continue up to 2005, when the population is expected to grow again.

## Figure 6

- 297,468

- 258,207

**Figure 6**
**Live Birth Numbers in New York State**
**1980 - 1998**

**Notes:**
Birth trends followed the trends in women.  So by 1990, the number of  births in New York State have declined, by 40,000 between 1990 to 1997.  Since the number of women of childbearing age is expected to continue to decline, it seems likely that births will also decline.

## Figure 7Population of children age 4 and under in New York State.Estimates from 1980 to 1999, and projections from 1995 to 2005

**Figure 7****Population of children age 4 and under in New York State.****Estimates from 1980 to 1999, and projections from 1995 to 2005**

**Notes:**
Similarly, the child population is declining, starting around 1994.  This decline is also expected to continue up to 2005 or so.

## Figure 8Primary source of payment for births.New York State, 1989-1996

**Figure 8****Primary source of payment for births.****New York State, 1989-1996**

**Notes:**
However, not all women, infants and children are potential clients for WIC, so we need to try to estimate trends among those who are.

One estimate for New York State of women who might be potential clients is to look at births paid for by Medicaid.  This data shows increase up to 1994, and then slight decrease to 1996. 

## Figure 9Total number of people living in poverty in NY State,1980 to 1999

**Figure 9****Total number of people living in poverty in NY State,****1980 to 1999**

**Notes:**
Second, look at another indicator of the trend in the possible eligible population, number of people in poverty in NYS.  This indicator is used because there are no reliable indicators for children in poverty in NYS, so the total is one general indicator.

## Figure 10Related Children, Age 5 and Under, Living in Poverty in the United States, 1969 to 1999

**Figure 10****Related Children, Age 5 and Under, Living in Poverty in the United States, 1969 to 1999**

**Notes:**
We also look at poverty among children in the US, because it may also indicate what might be happening among children in NYS.  Both for adults in NYS and children in the US, recent trends show increase from 1988 up to 1994, and then a decline (in the US) and fairly constant level in NYS.

From these graphs, it seems possible that the number of children in NYS in poverty is declining.

## Figure 11Unemployment in New York StateJanuary 1980 - April 2000

**Figure 11****Unemployment in New York State****January 1980 - April 2000**

**Notes:**
The unemployment also uses moving averages, and includes data up to April  2000.  It shows similar trends to poverty and a general continuation of the possible decline in poverty up to the present.  So again, it seems possible that there is a decline in the number of women, infants and children in poverty.

A decline in poverty may be related to strong economy, and also the population changes, decline in the number of children and women in childbearing age.

## Summary

- WIC caseload trends for infants, children and pregnant women have been fairly constant since 1994.  Trends for infants and children in New York City area show slight declines since 1998.
- Total populations of women of child bearing age, children, and number of births in New York State has been declining in last several years, and expected to decline for next several years.
- Total number of people in New York State in poverty has been constant for past several years.  Number of children in NY in poverty *probably* has been fairly constant.

## Data sources for slides

- Women, Infant and Children NUTWIC monthly participation: Division of Nutrition Program Data, from Agency Monthly Participant Counts
- Women, Infants and Children Certification data: Division of Nutrition Program Data, from WIC Participant Certification Files
- Population estimates and projections for women and children:
-    http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/s5yr8090.txt,
-    http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/st-99-08.txt,
-    http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/st_yr95to00.html, New York; and
-    http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/st_yr01to05.html, New York
- Live Birth datas:
-   Vital Statistics of  New York State, 1996.  Live Births and Live Birth Rates, New York State, 1950-1996.
-  Table 5: Live Birth Summary Information by Mother's Age New York State 1996, http://www.health.state.ny.us/nysdoh/vs96/table5.htm
-   Table 4: Live Birth Summary Information by Race/Ethnicity New York State 1997,  http://www.health.state.ny.us/nysdoh/vs97/tab04.htm
-   Vital Statistics of New York State, 1997, table of live births, NYS Birth Certificate Records,
-   Births: Final data for 1998.  http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvs48_3.pdf
-    Each year,  information for about 3% of births is not available.
- Primary Sources of Payment for Births
-  Table 5: Live Birth Summary Information by Mother's Age New York State 1996, http://www.health.state.ny.us/nysdoh/vs96/table5.htm
-   Table 4: Live Birth Summary Information by Race/Ethnicity New York State 1997,  http://www.health.state.ny.us/nysdoh/vs97/tab04.htm
- Total number of people in poverty in New York State, http://www.census.gov/income/histpov/hstpov21.txt. Accessed Sept 1, 2000.
-    CPS data is most reliable at national level.  To improve reliability at state level, we used a three year moving average.
- Total number of children in the US in poverty: http://www.census.gov/income/histpov/hstpov20.txt
- New York Unemployment data:  New York State Department of Labor data page:  http://www.labor.state.ny.us/html/laus/search.htm