# Presentation: 550633

## THORPEX:

**A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM**
**NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM**

**Scientific Guidance Provided by**
**NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee**
**Presentation prepared by Z. Toth**

## THORPEX ORGANIZATION

***	******EXECUTIVE OVERSIGHT******	******	******SCIENTIFIC DIRECTION***

- _International Core Steering Committee_
- Michel Beland (Co-chair)
- Louis Uccellini (US Representat.)

- _International Science Steering Comm._
- 	Co-chaired by
- 	Mel Shapiro & Alan Thorpe

***INTERNATIONAL LEVEL – LINK WITH WMO***

***REGIONAL (NORTH AMERICAN) LEVEL – LINK WITH USWRP***

- _Oversight provided by _
- 	North American members of International Core Steering Comm.

- _North American Science Steering Com_
- Co-chaired by
-    David Parsons & Pierre Gauthier

***NOAA LEVEL – LINK WITH CORPORATE MANAGEMENT***

- _NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Com._
- 	L. Uccellini (Chair), M. Uhart,
- 	M. Colton, and Jack Hayes

- _NOAA Science Steering Committee_
- Z. Toth (Chair, Program Manager)
- 12 NOAA and outside members

## NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART

**NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Committee**
- Louis Uccellini	(Chair)	NWS		Michael Uhart		OWAQ
- Marie Colton		ORA/NESDIS	Jack Hayes		NWS
** **
**NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee**
*Zoltan Toth**	**Chair, Program Manager NOAA/NWS*
***Observations:******	****	**	**	****Data Assimilation***
- Jaime Daniels		NOAA/NESDIS Craig Bishop		NRL
- David Emmitt		SWA		 L.-P. Riishojgaard	JCSDA
- Thomas Schlatter	NOAA/FSL
- Chris Velden		CIMSS
***Forecasting/Predictability****:**	**	****Socioeconomic Applications:***
- Jim Hansen 		MIT 		Rebecca Morss		NCAR
- Jeff Whitaker/T. Hamill 	NOAA/CDC 	Marty Ralph		NOAA/ERL
- George Kiladis		NOAA/AL

## THORPEX:

**A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM**
*NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN*

***Based largely on work of NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting (October 21-22 2002):***

- NOAA NWS
- Zoltan Toth
- Naomi Surgi
- NOAA OAR
- Melvyn Shapiro
- Jeff Whitaker

- Outside NOAA
- Craig Bishop 		NRL
- David Carlson		NCAR
- Ron Gelaro		NASA
- Rebecca Morss		NCAR
- John Murray		NASA
- Chris Snyder		NCAR

- Acknowledgements:
- D. Rogers, L. Uccellini, S. Lord, J. Gaynor, W. Seguin

***With further input from NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Team***

## NOAA’S INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX

- 1998-99	Discussions started with involvement of NOAA scientists
- Apr 2000	First International Meeting
- Mar 2002	First Workshop, International Science Steering Committee formed
- Aug 2002	NOAA Tiger Team Meeting
**Oct 2002****	****NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting**
**Nov 2002****	****1****st**** Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan**
- Jan 2003	NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee formed
- Feb 2003	Pacific TOST Experiment
**Jun 2003****	****First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity**
- Sep 2003	25 Full Proposals received
- Oct-Dec 03	Atlantic Regional Campaign

## THORPEX OBJECTIVES

**INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM**
**SCIENCE GOAL:*****	***
**Promote research leading to new techniques in:****	****  **
***	******	******	****	****Observations**** (Collect data) *
*	**	**	**	****Data assimilation**** (Prepare initial cond.) *
*	**	**	**	****Forecasting**** (Run numerical model)*
*	**	**	**	****Socioeconomic Applications**** *
*	**	**	**	**          **	**(Post-process, add value, apply)*
***SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS***
**SERVICE GOAL:**
- 	**Accelerate improvements in utility of 1-14 day forecasts for high impact weather**
**THORPEX ANSWER:**
- 	**Develop new paradigm for weather forecasting through**
- 		Enhanced collaboration:		Internationally
- 						Among different disciplines
- 						Between research & operations
*	**	**	**Example: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)*

## 	     Severe weather (Asia?); 1-3 day weather (Europe?); Global monitoring (NASA?)

**SYNERGISTIC COLLABORATION**

**SCIENCE GOAL – SHARED WITH ALL PARTICIPANTS, COMMON THEME**
***	*****Develop new paradigm for weather forecasting**
**	****	**Integrate OBS, DA, FCST, & APPLICATION areas of forecast process
- 	***All participants contribute to advancing same science objective***
***	******	******	******LEVERAGING RESOURCES***
***SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS***
**SERVICE GOAL – DIFFERENT PRIORITIES FOR EACH AGENCY/NATION**
- 	**Accelerate improvements in utility of forecasts for high impact weather**
- 	     Severe weather (Asia?); 1-3 day weather (Europe?); Global monitoring (NASA?)
- 	***All participants share service applications among themselves***
***	******	******	******COMPLIMENTARY EFFORTS***
***Critical mass of resources needed – Intellectual, Material, Global observs.***
**NEED INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION**

## THORPEX OBJECTIVES

**NOAA’S ROLE**
**Existing NOAA, USWRP and other programs aimed at:**
**Short-range forecast problem**: PACJET, IHOP, Cold Season Precip., etc
**Seasonal & climate forecast problem:** CLIVAR, GAPP, etc
***THORPEX fills critical gap between short-range weather & climate programs:***
**NOAA SERVICE APLLICATION GOAL**
_**Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to facilitate issuance of skillful**_
**3-7 day precipitation forecasts**
**8-14 day daily weather forecasts**

**NOAA’S ROLE**
**Existing NOAA, USWRP and other programs aimed at:**
**Short-range forecast problem**: PACJET, IHOP, Cold Season Precip., etc
**Seasonal & climate forecast problem:** CLIVAR, GAPP, etc
***THORPEX fills critical gap between short-range weather & climate programs:***
**NOAA’S SERVICE APLLICATION GOAL**
_**Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to facilitate issuance of skillful**_
**3-7 day precipitation forecasts**
**8-14 day daily weather forecasts**

## THORPEX:

**A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM**
***NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN***
***TO REACH NOAA’S SERVICE GOAL***
- 52-page document based on input from 18 NOAA and outside experts

**INTRODUCTION**		New forecast paradigm
**SCIENCE PLAN**		Major Themes
- 					Open Science Questions
- 					Research and Development Tasks
**IMPLEMENTATION PLAN**	Work Plan
- 					Deliverables
- 					Performance measures
- 					Education/Outreach
- 					Path to Operations
**APPENDIX****	**		Link with 	NOAA Strategic Goals
- 							NWS STIP Process

## WEATHER FORECASTING FOR DAYS 3-14

- Based on guidance from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models
- Quality tied with that of NWP model forecasts
- Components of NWP forecasting:

- Observing system – 	Collect data
- Data assimilation -	Prepare initial conditions
- Forecast procedures –
- 		Run numerical model
- Societal & economic applictns –
- 		Post-process, add value, apply

## TRADITIONAL FORECAST APPROACH

- Each discipline developed on its own
- Disjoint steps in forecast process
- Little or no feedback
- One-way flow of information
- Uncertainty in process ignored

## STATUS QUO SCENARIO

- Forecast skill improves
- As in any learning process, improvements become harder as skill advances
*Maintaining or accelerating rate of improvements not possible with current status quo approach/resources*

**Is this acceptable when sensitivity/vulnerability of society to weather increases?**

**Substantial resources spent on improving NWP**

## THORPEX SOLUTION:

- 	*REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS*
- Invest in major new NWP program =>
- Develop new NWP procedures
-  ***INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE***
- 		Return – 	Pace of forecast improvement 				maintained/accelerated
- Assess costs and societal/economic benefits of new procedures
- Implement operationally most cost effective new methods
- 		Return – 	Enhanced operational capability
- 				Improved cost effectiveness

## NEW NWP PARADIGM - 1

**INTEGRATED NWP**
- Sub-systems developed in coordintation
- End-to-end forecast process
- Strong feedback
- Two-way interaction among components
- Error/uncertainty accounted for at each

*Based on better understanding of forecast process*

## NEW NWP PARADIGM - 2

- Integrated
**ADAPTIVE**
*Based on more detailed understanding of natural processes*
- Allows more differentiated, case dependent methods/procedures
- Exmples
- Observations – Adaptive platform collects data to fill gaps due to clouds
- Data assimilation – Flow dependent forecast error estimates
- Forecasting – Situation dependent modeling algorithms –
- 							e. g., hurricane relocation
- Applications – Probabilistic forecast reflects all forecast info => ultimate adaptation of user procedures to weather

## NEW NWP PARADIGM - 3

- Integrated
- Adaptive
**USER CONTROLLABLE**
*Based on:*
*2-way interactions (improved forecast process)*
*Adaptive approach (better understanding of nature)*
- Forecast process
- Traditionally driven by FIXED user requirements
- Now responsive to CHANGING user needs
- User needs connected to observational, data assimilation, and forecast systems
- Dynamical analysis of nature & forecast process
- New, NWP model based tools
- Fully interactive forecast process
- Example: 	User identifies critical forecast weather event
- 				Special observational or forecast procedures
- 				Improved targeted forecast

## SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS - INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE

- 		       **NEW NWP**
- Sub-systems developed in coordination
- End-to-end forecast process
- Strong feedback among components
- Two-way interaction
- Error/uncertainty accounted for

**	****     ****TRADITIONAL NWP **
- Each discipline developed on its own
- Disjoint steps in forecast process
- Little or no feedback
- One-way flow of information
- Uncertainty in process ignored

***SERVICE GOAL: IMPROVE 3-14 DAY FORECASTS***

## NEW NWP PARADIGM - 4

- 			      ***Isolated examples exist***
- INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT
- NPOESS instrument/platform design:
- Input from OSSE work (data assimilation/forecasting needs considered)
- -	North American Observing System initiative
- ADAPTIVE APPROACH
- GFDL hurricane model runs at NWS when needed
- USER CONTROL – WSR program at NWS
- Threat of winter storm – potential societal impact
- Dynamical calculations
- Targeted observations collected
- Targeted data inserted in analysis/forecast process
- From the EXCEPTION, THORPEX will make interactive, adaptive, & user controlled methods the RULE

## NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW – ACTIVITIES

**ANSWER SCIENCE QUESTIONS**
- Advance basic knowledge,
- 			directed explicitly toward NWP applications
- Each task conceived as part of overall program
**DEVELOP NEW METHODS**
- Sub-system development
- Academic research
- Cross-cutting activities
- Academic + operational centers
- 	Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)
- 	Real-time test and demonstration
- Infrastructure / Core tasks
- Facilitate other activities - Strong agency involvement
- 	THORPEX Data Base
- 	Operational Test Facility
**RECOMMEND/PREPARE OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION**
- Integral part of program
- Strong participation by operational centers

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES

- Observing system (OBS)
- Data assimilation (DA)
- Forecast procedures (FCST)
- Socio-economic Applications (SA)
- Cross-cutting activities
- Core tasks

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 1

**OBSERVING SYSTEM**
- New in-situ and remote instruments/platforms to complement existing network
- Adaptive observing instruments/platforms
- For large data sets
- Super-obing etc prior to OR within data assimil.
- 			*(Joint work with data assimilation)*
- Obs. error estimation (correlated/uncorrelated)

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 2

- Observing system
**DATA ASSIMILATION**
- Improve techniques
- Forward models, transfer codes
- Thinning of data
- Treatment of data with correlated errors
- Advanced methods to use flow dependent covariance
- 4DVAR research, e.g., continual update of error covariance
- Ensemble based techniques
- Treatment of model errors
- Adaptive observing techniques
- Quick use of targeted data (“pre-emptive” forecasting)
- Methods in the presence of
- Strong non-linearities
- Model error
- Effectiveness of targeted data in analyses/forecasts
- Effect on climatological applications of data

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 3

- Observing system
- Data assimilation
**FORECAST PROCEDURES**
- Initial ensemble perturbations *(Joint with data assimilation)*
- Role of non-modal behavior
- Separate model related error from initial value errors
- Systematic vs. random errors
- Atmospheric features most affected
- Critical model features responsible for different errors
- Improve model formulation to reduce errors (Coupling techniques)
- Techniques to account for remaining uncertainty in ensembles (physics, etc)
- Adaptive modeling and ensemble techniques

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 4

- Observing system
- Data assimilation
- Forecast procedures
**SOCIO-ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS**
- Probabilistic forecasting
- Statistical post-processing
- New procedures for intermediate and end users
- Add-on costs of new THORPEX NWP process
- Cost of data from multi-use satellite platforms *(Joint with Observtns.)*
- Incremental societal/economic benefits of new NWP process
- New NWP verification measure
- Societal aspects of new adaptive NWP procedures
- Equitable use of NWP resources, how adaptive procedures applied nationally and internationally

## CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES

*Integrating NWP procedures from four sub-systems *
*Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)*
- Data needs of NWP
- What variables/resolution/accuracy required
- Instrument/platform neutral assessment
- What instruments/platforms can provide data needs
- Existing and new in-situ & remote platforms
- Adaptive component to complement fixed network
- Most cost effective solution
- Relative value of improvements in four sub-systems
- Improvements in which sub-system offer best return?
- Reallocation of resources
- Test of proposed operational configurations
- Major field program if needed
- Cost/benefit analysis - **Select most cost effective version**

## CORE TASKS

*Needed for efficient research & planned operations*
*Strong agency involvement*
- THORPEX data base (observations, forecasts)
- Information Technology challenge
- High data volume
- Transmission
- Storage of data
- Foster collaboration in critical areas
- Workshops (Societal and economic impacts)
- Joint proposals – Interdisciplinary collaboration
- Critical in past programs like FASTEX
- Test-bed – Pathway from research to operations
- Formal procedure for researchers to follow
- Melting pot for new ideas
- Venue for cross-cutting activities

## SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS 

- New forecast techniques
- Observing, data assimilation, forecasting, application tools
- Accelerated forecast improvements
- Integrated, adaptive, user controllable NWP
- Cost effective operational system
- Based on cost/benefit analysis
- Enhanced user interface

**COSTS**
- Research Grant Program
- Integrated program - Four sub-areas & cross-cutting activities
- Operational Test Facility
- Simulated forecast process; Database
- Real-time test/implementation
- Data transmission, Computations, Training

*SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS *
*MUST OUTWEIGH OPERATIONAL COSTS*

_**NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW - DELIVERABLES**_

**OVERALL MEASURE OF SUCCESS:**

## LINK WITH NOAA MISSION GOAL

**NOAA’S 3****rd**** MISSION GOAL **– sounds like excerpt from** ****THORPEX doc****.: **
- 	**NOAA will “provide integrated observations, predictions, and advice for decision makers to manage... environmental resources”.**
**Mission strategies and measures of success**
- 					directly correspond with
- 						**THORPEX Sub-program areas**:
***NOAA MISSION STRATEGY******	******          ******THORPEX FORECAST COMPONENTS***
- Monitor and Observe			Observations
- Understand and Describe		Data Assimilation
- Assess and Predict			Forecasting
- Engage, Advise, and Inform		Socio-economic Applications
- Different Line Offices responsible for various forecast components –
***NEED FOR NEW MATRIX MANAGEMENT CONCEPT FOR INTEGRATION***

## LINK WITH NWS STIP PROCESS

**National Weather Service (NWS) –**
**	****	****	****	****         ****NOAA’s operational weather forecast provider**
**NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP) –**
- 	Operational requirements should motivate all service oriented research
- 					Research must have thread to operations &
- 					Credible path to operational implementation
***SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS***
*THORPEX seeks advanced knowledge on two fronts:*
*	**Nature **	**	**	**(atmospheric and related processes)*
*	**Forecast procedures **	**	**(OBS, DA, FCST & SA techniques)*
*Integrating knowledge from two areas leads to new forecast paradigm of*
***INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, AND USER CONTROLLABLE FCST PROCESS***

## THORPEX:

**A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM**
**OVERVIEW OF NOAA’S THORPEX-RELATED ACTIVITIES**

**ACCOMPLISHMENTS:**
- Contributed to International Science Plan
- Contributes to forming THORPEX International Program Office 					(Under WMO auspices in Geneva)
- Contributes to North American Implementation Plan
- Formed NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee
- Developed NOAA THORPEX Long-Term Research Plan
- Issued First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity 									 (AO)
**ONGOING EFFORT:**
- Evaluation of research proposals in response to AO
- Atlantic Regional Campaign
**OUTSTANDING ISSUES:**
- Funding for AO unresolved
- Funding for Operational Test Facility (FTO) needed

## NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PROJECT

**GOALS:      ****Accelerate improvements in operational weather forecasting**
- 	*through Canadian-US collaboration*
**Seamless (across boundary and in time) suite of products**
- 	*through joint Canadian-US operational ensemble forecast system*
**PARTICIPANTS: ****	****  **Meteorological Service of Canada (CMC, MRB)
- 		  US National Weather Service (NCEP)
**PLANNED ACTIVITIES:  **Ensemble data exchange (June 2004)
- 				   Research and Development -*Statistical post-processing*
*	**	**	*(2003-2007)*	**           -Product development*
*	**	**	**	**	**           **-Verification/Evaluation*
- 				   Operational implementation (in phases, 2004-2008)
**POTENTIAL PROJECT EXPANSION / LINKS: **
- 		   Shared interest with THORPEX goals of
*	**	**	**Improvements in operational forecasts*
*	**	**	**International collaboration*
- 		   Expand bilateral NAEFS in future
*	**	**	**Entrain broader research community*
*	**	**	**Multi-center / multi-national ensemble system:*
*	**	**	**	**MOA with Japan Meteorological Agency*

## BACKGROUND MATERIAL

## COSTS/DELIVERABLES

- Costs:
- Research program
- Integrated concept – need to fund research in all four areas of NWP
- Operational implementation
- Deliverables
- New observing, data assimilation, forecasting, & application tools to implement integrated, adaptive, user controllable NWP
- Acceleration in current NWP improvements

- Socio-economic benefits must outweigh operational costs

## NOAA THORPEX OBJECTIVES

**1)****	****Develop new forecast procedures leading to **
**Improved operational NWP forecasts; and**
**Develop/adapt cost/benefit tools to measure resulting societal impact**
**ULTIMATE MEASURE OF SUCCESS**
**	****The overall success of the NOAA THORPEX program will be measured in a unique and comprehensive way. The program will be considered successful if the newly developed cost/benefit analysis tools ****(point 3 above)**** indicate that the forecast improvements ****(point 2)**** due to the new THORPEX procedures ****(point 1)**** can be achieved operationally in a cost-effective manner. That is, the incremental economic and societal benefits associated with the use of the new THORPEX forecast procedures outweigh their implementation and maintenance costs.**
**	**** **

## NEED FOR COLLABORATIVE PROGRAM

- Interdisciplinary research
- Different groups/agencies/nations need to collaborate
- Integrated approach to NWP – 4 sub-systems
- Practical goal – Research + Operations
- Challenging program
- Need critical mass of resources
- Intellectual
- Material
- Synergistic activities
- Priorities of other agencies may be different
- Common overarching THORPEX themes
- Complementary efforts
- Leveraging of resources
- Global data and all NWP methods universally needed
*	****INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM HIGHLY DESIRABLE***