# Presentation: 551599

## NOAA’s National Weather Service2009 President’s Budget Rollout

- Jack Hayes
- NOAA Assistant Administrator &
- Director, National Weather Service
- National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MDFebruary 27, 2008

## Protecting Lives and Livelihoods

**Protecting Lives and Livelihoods**

**Severe Weather:**
**2008 is 23rd deadliest for tornadoes in ****~60 years (67 fatalities)****                  ...**_**It’s only February!**_
**February 5-6, 2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak **
*63 tornadoes*
*57 fatalities*
*Deadliest event since ’85*
*Outlook issued 6 days prior*
*POD 100% for tornadoes occurring in **SPC watches*
*Average warning lead time 17 min*

- FY 2009 Budget Request

**Notes:**
2008 is already tied as the 23rd deadliest tornado year since record keeping began in 1950, and it is only mid-February. 
America is vulnerable to severe weather.
90% of all presidential disaster declarations are weather related.  We still have an average 500 deaths per year and $14 billion damage.
We average 1,300 tornadoes a year in this country (10 year average). 
2008 is the 60th anniversary of the first tornado forecast.  March 25, 1948, two Air Force Officers, predicted that tornadoes would hit Tinker Air Force Base, Okla., where they were weather officers. They issued the first successful tornado forecast in America, saving many lives.
So far this year we are far above average with 291 tornadoes and 67 deaths.  
Despite our best efforts, the past few years have seen a steady increase in the number of tornado deaths in the U.S.  
2008: 67 fatalities so far this year (number of tornadoes: 291; killer tornadoes: 16)
2007: 81 (number of tornadoes: 1,074; killer tornadoes: 26)
2006: 67 (number of tornadoes: 1,106; killer tornadoes: 25)
2005: 38 (number of tornadoes: 1,264; killer tornadoes: 13)

Event Synopsis:
The February 5-6 tornado outbreak in the South was the deadliest February tornado outbreak since Feb. 1971.  (Southern Mississippi Valley tornado outbreak with 121 fatalities)
Deadliest single day tornado event since May 31, 1985.  (Ohio, Pennsylvania tornado outbreak with 76 fatalities)
This event was well forecast.
Storm Prediction Center warned a tornado outbreak was possible 6 days in advance.
SPC issued a high-risk warning early in the morning of Feb. 5, and a moderate-risk warning two days before.  This captured the attention of broadcast media and emergency managers since we only issue a handful of the high-risk warnings each year.
The average lead time for the tornado watches was 2 days. 
The average lead time for the warnings was 17 minutes. 
In terms of the destruction, the numbers are devastating: 
63 confirmed tornadoes (spawned by a long-lived squall line that developed out of a strong upper level storm system) across SR and into CR 
11 killer tornadoes 
59 people killed and more than 350 injured in five states (Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi) 
Extensive damage across the affected areas 
The service performed by our national centers, regional staff, and field staff was exemplary 

## FY 2007 NWS Accomplishments

**U.S. Tsunami Warning Program Initial Operating Capability (IOC) Achieved  **
**"Storm-Based Warnings" for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and flash floods to better pinpoint the areas threatened by storms with greater accuracy**
**NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards in every U.S. Public School**

**8 Counties under warning **
**almost 1 million people warned**

**70% less area covered**
**600,000 fewer people warned**

**Previously**

**Currently**

- FY 2009 Budget Request

**Notes:**
U.S. Tsunami Warning Program Initial Operating Capability (IOC) Achieved  
To Date:  35/39 DARTs Deployed (remaining four scheduled for deployment during FY08)

NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards in every U.S. Public School
Thanks to NOAA/DHS Collaboration

## FY 2007 NWS Accomplishments

**New Community Hydrologic Prediction System Successfully Demonstrated**
**Surpassed goal for Increasing the Number of Heat Health Warning Programs in U.S. Cities**
**NWS Incident Meteorologists worked on-scene ****during the Southern California wildfires**
**Average lead time of 15 minutes for ****64 tornadoes associated with major severe ****weather outbreak in southeastern ****U.S. March 1-2.**
**Upgraded Super Computing System to ****provide 3X computational power **

- FY 2009 Budget Request

**Notes:**
NWS IMs during Southern Calif. Wildfires:
Provided Incident Commander with precise information about the timing of Santa Ana winds - critical for launching the air attack  

## Protecting Lives and Livelihoods:Where We’re Headed

**Improve extended predictions for severe weather outbreaks a week in advance. **
**Warn-On Forecasts: Tornado warning lead times increase from average of 13 minutes today to as much as 1 hour**
**Severe thunderstorm warning lead times increase from average of 18 minutes to as much as 2 hours**

- FY 2009 Budget Request

**Notes:**
Improving Services for the Future:
NOAA Services Crucial to Our Nation’s Competitiveness
Weather/climate sensitive industries account for over 30% of GDP or 4 trillion dollars in FY 2006
NOAA services contribute over $40 billions per year in economic benefits from fisheries to transportation to weather and climate
Severe Weather Impacting Our Economy and Public Safety
Extreme weather events continue to impact the US from flooding to drought and hurricanes
NOAA is well positioned to protect lives and livelihoods
NOAA Environmental Information Key to Millions of Decisions
We are living in an information age with a service based economy
NOAA weather, climate, coastal, and fisheries data impacts millions of decision every days 
All economic sectors use NOAA environmental data, from transportation sectors, financial markets, and emergency management 
Improve extended predictions
Move toward probabilistic forecasts
Improve accuracy of storm onset forecast
Severe Weather Forecasts and Warnings
If we take on a “Warn-On Forecast” approach, I think we can move our tornado warnings from 13 minutes to as much as an hour
Severe thunderstorm warnings can jump from 18 minutes to as much as 2 hours
Tropical Cyclone Services
Warning lead time for landfall increases from less than 24 hours to 3 days
50% reduction in 48 hr intensity error (~ 8kts)
50% reduction in 48 hr track error (~50nm)
Winter Weather Services
Warning lead time increases from an average of 18 hours to days allowing air and surface traffic to be rerouted
Snow removal teams can be positioned at the right places at the right times for rapidly restoring the Nation’s roadways
Essential to our vision for future environmental services is the concept of infusing information about uncertainty into our forecast process and products and educating users how to use this information in their decision making. We’re already doing this with a variety of severe weather, winter weather, and fire weather products and will continue to add more uncertainty information to our forecasts in the future to help users and decision makers evaluate the level of risk for their particular situations.
Reduce National Air Space delays through improved aviation weather service collaboration with FAA
CWSU Requirements from FAA: We are working with the FAA to make improvements in the aviation weather support we provide to them via our Center Weather Service Units.
Service Improvement: While we are working with the FAA in responding to those requirements, we have also moved out on improving areas of our services in the near-term by establishing a benchmark office that takes the best ideas from all of our CWSUs and creates a standardized program.
NextGen: We are also looking out over the horizon in the next 10 to 15 years at the Next Generation of air transportation services being developed through the Joint Program Development Office with the FAA and DoD. Air traffic density is expected to triple in the NextGen planning horizon. The future requires that we work smartly today to make sure we are aligned now with that future.

## Protecting Lives and Livelihoods:Where We’re Headed

**Tropical cyclone warning lead times for landfall increase from less than 24 hours to 3 days**
**Winter storm warning lead times increase from average of 18 hours to days**
**Reduce National Air Space delays through improved aviation weather service collaboration with FAA**

- FY 2009 Budget Request

**Notes:**
Improving Services for the Future:
NOAA Services Crucial to Our Nation’s Competitiveness
Weather/climate sensitive industries account for over 30% of GDP or 4 trillion dollars in FY 2006
NOAA services contribute over $40 billions per year in economic benefits from fisheries to transportation to weather and climate
Severe Weather Impacting Our Economy and Public Safety
Extreme weather events continue to impact the US from flooding to drought and hurricanes
NOAA is well positioned to protect lives and livelihoods
NOAA Environmental Information Key to Millions of Decisions
We are living in an information age with a service based economy
NOAA weather, climate, coastal, and fisheries data impacts millions of decision every days 
All economic sectors use NOAA environmental data, from transportation sectors, financial markets, and emergency management 
Improve extended predictions
Move toward probabilistic forecasts
Improve accuracy of storm onset forecast
Severe Weather Forecasts and Warnings
If we take on a “Warn-On Forecast” approach, I think we can move our tornado warnings from 13 minutes to as much as an hour
Severe thunderstorm warnings can jump from 18 minutes to as much as 2 hours
Tropical Cyclone Services
Warning lead time for landfall increases from less than 24 hours to 3 days
50% reduction in 48 hr intensity error (~ 8kts)
50% reduction in 48 hr track error (~50nm)
Winter Weather Services
Warning lead time increases from an average of 18 hours to days allowing air and surface traffic to be rerouted
Snow removal teams can be positioned at the right places at the right times for rapidly restoring the Nation’s roadways
Essential to our vision for future environmental services is the concept of infusing information about uncertainty into our forecast process and products and educating users how to use this information in their decision making. We’re already doing this with a variety of severe weather, winter weather, and fire weather products and will continue to add more uncertainty information to our forecasts in the future to help users and decision makers evaluate the level of risk for their particular situations.
Reduce National Air Space delays through improved aviation weather service collaboration with FAA
CWSU Requirements from FAA: We are working with the FAA to make improvements in the aviation weather support we provide to them via our Center Weather Service Units.
Service Improvement: While we are working with the FAA in responding to those requirements, we have also moved out on improving areas of our services in the near-term by establishing a benchmark office that takes the best ideas from all of our CWSUs and creates a standardized program.
NextGen: We are also looking out over the horizon in the next 10 to 15 years at the Next Generation of air transportation services being developed through the Joint Program Development Office with the FAA and DoD. Air traffic density is expected to triple in the NextGen planning horizon. The future requires that we work smartly today to make sure we are aligned now with that future.

## Protecting Lives and Livelihoods:What We Need to Get There

**Observations **
*Improved spatial, temporal, spectral resolution*
- Next Generation Satellites
- Super Resolution and Dual Polarization Radar
**Modeling**
*Fine scale, earth system, ensemble*
- Weather Research and Forecasting Model
**Forecast generation**
*IT systems & applications*
- Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II
**Service delivery**
*Decision support assistance*
- Incident Meteorologists on-site support for all hazards
**User Feedback Mechanism**

- FY 2009 Budget Request

**Notes:**
Of course in order to achieve our future vision, we need a very effective plan to move research into operations on many fronts. 
We need advances in observations, to modeling, to forecast generation techniques and tools, to service delivery, and finally we need an understanding of the complex human factors that influence how people process and use weather and risk information both inside and outside our organizations.  This most significantly includes the public as well.  As we look at all of the things we do and are going to do, it’s easy to get excited about the science and technology coming down the road.
We do need to improve through new technologies for the early detection and warning of severe storms:
Observations 
Improved spatial, temporal, spectral resolution
Next Generation Satellites
Super Resolution and Dual Polarization Radar
Modeling
Fine scale, earth system, ensemble
Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Forecast generation
IT systems & applications
Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II
Service delivery
Decision support assistance
Incident Meteorologists on-site support for all hazards

## FY 2009 NWS Budget Overview

**FY 2009 Budget provides **$930.7M **for the NWS – a $27.2M (2.9%) **increase** over the FY 2008 President’s Budget, and a** net increase **of $19.3M (2.1%) over the FY 2008 enacted level**
**$14.5M for inflationary ****adjustments to base **
**$37.2M in program changes ****including $10.1M in base ****program restorations  **

- FY 2009 Budget Request

**Notes:**
The FY 2009 budget is the step in the right direction...

## Adjustments to Base: +$14.5M

**Highest NWS Priority**
**NWS operations budget is 62% labor**
**Funds 2.9% federal pay raise**
**Excludes non-labor inflation costs**

**FY 2009 NWS Budget Plan $910.5M**

**FY 2009 NWS Budget Plan (ORF) $804.5M**

**PAC****12%**

**Systems O&M****11%**

**Operating****Costs****38%**

**Base****Operation****77%**

**Labor****62%**

- FY 2009 Budget Request

## Improving Weather Warnings & Forecasts

***NOAA’s forecasts, warnings, and associated emergency responses result in $3 billion in savings in a typical hurricane season***

*($ in millions)*

*** Includes $1.0M for OAR/DTC**

**$5.3 **

**$5.3 **

**Hurricane Forecasting Improvements***

**$4.8 **

**$9.7**

**Profiler Network Conversion **

**$6.6 **

**$19.1 **

**AWIPS Technology Infusion **

**$2.9**

**$11.3 **

**All Hazards NOAA Weather Radio**

**$4.2 **

**$5.6 **

**Hurricane Supplemental O&M**

**$10.1 **

**$10.1 **

**Local Warnings & Forecasts Base Restoration  **

**Program **_**Change**_

**Request **_**Amount**_

- FY 2009 Budget Request

## Base and Program Restorations: +$10.1M

**What**
**$6.7M reduction in Local Warnings & ****Forecasts Core Operations and ****other Programs**
*Avoid degradation to current services*
*Avoid delays to key NWS programs (Air Quality **Forecasting, AHPS, Alaska Data Buoy, **WFO Maintenance)*
**$2.1M reduction to Systems O&M Base**
*Avoid degradation to systems availability **(AWIPS, NEXRAD NWSTG)** *
**$1.3M reduction to Systems ****Acquisition and Construction**
*Avoid delays to planned product **improvements (AWIPS, NEXRAD, **NWS Supercomputing)*

- FY 2009 Budget Request

## What
Replace non-supportable broadcast equipment
Use satellite technology for point to multi-point communications capability and network redundancy
Deploy NOAA Weather Radio Broadcast Management System (NWR BMS) to replace CRS 
Develop system to integrate NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS) into consolidated BMS network
Strategy will provide cost avoidance of $1.7M per year

**What**
**Replace non-supportable broadcast ****equipment**
**Use satellite technology for point to ****multi-point communications capability ****and network redundancy**
**Deploy NOAA Weather Radio ****Broadcast Management System ****(NWR BMS) to replace CRS **
**Develop system to integrate NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS) into consolidated BMS network**
**Strategy will provide cost avoidance of $1.7M per year**

**NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards: Weather Radio Improvement Project: +$2.9M**

- FY 2009 Budget Request

**Notes:**
NOAA Weather Radio +$2.9M: An increase is requested to upgrade the NOAA Weather Radio system, replacing obsolete, unsupported broadcasting equipment and incorporating satellite communications.
Why
Lack of communications backup and no point to multi-point capabilities:
NO NWR transmission backup when a WFO is down
Since NWR is part of the government alert system, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requires a way to drive all, or a section of the network with one broadcast
Important to DHS and builds on previous DHS Investments

Schedule
In FY 2009, the total funding of $5.7M will be used to (includes $3.0M Technical ATB):
Perform Operational Acceptance Test of Broadcast Management System
Deploy BMS Hardware
Develop NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS) system to integrate with BMS
Begin installation of satellite hardware at 1000 transmitter sites
Begin installation of communications at WFOs and proposed BMS site/s
Install BMS communication equipment & NWWS between WFOs and the proposed BMS site/s
FY 2010:
Complete BMS and NWWS Deployment
Complete Communications Network
FY 2011:
Complete Communications Network

Recent News Item from Florida
When storms hammered most of Florida on Tuesday Feb 12, the weather radio systems for Melbourne and Orlando went off the air, one for more than four hours.
 A problem with a telephone line linking the National Weather Service office in Melbourne to the NOAA Weather Radio transmitters kept the system from broadcasting alerts about the stormy conditions. 

## AWIPS Technology Infusion: +$6.6M

**What**
**Transform NWS service delivery through ****AWIPS Tech Infusion initiatives**
*Improve data delivery capability*
*Deliver graphical collaboration tools for **NWS field forecasters, Emergency Managers, **NOAA components and partners*
*Deliver customer-centric formats and standards **and create the flexibility to adapt with **customer changes*
*Develop an integrated remote service delivery capability to support Emergency Mangers (EM) and Fire Weather*
*Consolidate AWIPS subsystems *
**Accelerate transition from research to operations**
**Improve forecast and warnings for real-time decision making**

- FY 2009 Budget Request

**Notes:**
Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) +$6.6M: This increase will begin transformation of NWS service delivery to DHS, FAA, emergency managers, the American public and industry through a technology refresh. This will provide an updated infrastructure, improved information generation and data delivery capabilities, and provide for GIS collaborative capabilities.

Why
Inability to make all forecast information available to WFOs
No Graphical collaboration capability among WFOs, RFC, NCEP Centers, Ems, NOAA components, partners
Inability to quickly adapt to latest industry format standards (xml, CAP) burdening customers
Current AWIPS system architecture is too complex and inflexible to cope with current and future mission needs
7 different AWIPS subsystems creates inefficiencies and increases operating and maintenance costs

Outcomes
Improve transition of Research to Operations via faster, simpler and more efficient software development in the new architecture
Create seamless weather enterprise that reduces the number of disparate IT systems from seven to one 
Potential savings $0.7 to $1.0 M
Provides more timely and customer centric products and services
Improved forecast and warning information for real-time decision making (GIS format and collaboration capabilities)

## Hurricane Forecast & Storm SurgeModeling: +$4.3M

**What **
**Upgrade the Global Forecast ****System for improved track and ****intensity forecasts to 5 days**
**Implement upgrades to storm ****surge models**
**Accelerate transition of research ****into operational hurricane forecast ****system hurricane ensembles for ****reducing hurricane forecast uncertainties**
**Reduce error in model based forecast accuracy for hurricane by 50% by 2015**
**Reduce error in model based forecast accuracy for hurricane intensity by 30% by 2015**

- FY 2009 Budget Request

**Notes:**
Hurricane Forecast Modeling (HWRF) O&M +$4.3M:  Funding will increase the research and development necessary to accelerate the improvement in the NOAA Hurricane Forecast System (NHFS); transition and test new capabilities in operations; operate and maintain the expanded NHFS; provides operations & maintenance support for storm surge prediction models, and includes restoration to base activities.

Why
Increased vulnerabilities along the U.S. coast due to population increases
Forecasters need better tools to improve track and intensity forecast accuracies to support reducing costs of evacuations through improved storm evacuation strategies
Emergency response requires improved forecast accuracies for both track and INTENSITY at longer lead-times (out to 5 days)
Begins implementing recommendations of NOAA/SAB Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group; National Science Board report recommends $300M investment for large performance leap

Schedule
FY 2009:	Provide operations and maintenance for Hurricane Forecast System (on-going)
FY2009:	Accelerate research to operations at Joint Hurricane Test Bed
FY2010:	Implement revised computing strategy & NOAA Hurricane Forecast System (NHFS) upgrade 
Annually:	Implement Hurricane Forecast System upgrades

## NOAA Profiler Network: +$4.8M

**What **
**Convert 12 operational sites from 404MHz to 449MHz**
**Provide technology refresh to 20 year old equipment**

- FY 2009 Budget Request

**Notes:**
NOAA Profiler Network: +$4.8M

Why
Preserve key ability to detects onset of severe weather in Nations “tornado alley”
Interference with European Space Agency (ESA) Galileo search and rescue satellites will shut NPN down more than 23:30 hours per day by FY 2012, rendering the network of 32 operational wind profilers located in the central U.S. along “tornado alley” useless. 
Research has shown Wind Profiler data improves accuracy and lead times for tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, and winter storm warnings