# Presentation: 497208

## Nuke Newcome

- 703-684-2900
- www.sra.com
- www.uavforum.com

## From  Science  Fiction...

**“****The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously... There was of course no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment... It was even conceivable that (the police) watched everybody all the time... You had to live... in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard and... every movement scrutinized.”**
** ****	****	****	****	****        ****George Orwell, **_**1984**_**  (1949)**

## ...To  Today’s  Reality

**The Washington Post**
**26 Aug 2001 p.C2 **

## Lessons  in  Forecasting

**Yesterday’s outlandish predictions tend to become today’s mundane reality**
**	****- What would a cabbie of 1949 think of the 2001 photo?**
**You have to look backward to measure progress forward**
**	****- Change is seldom appreciated while it is happening**
**	****- Orwell was off by 17 years (1984 v. 2001) = 50%**
**Socio-economic factors govern technology progress**
**	****- Cameras in cabs driven by cost and frequency of crime**
**The future always holds wild cards**
**	****- Who forecast the appearance of the internet?**

## Overview

**Requirements (Environmental)**
**Emerging Technologies**
**Potential Customers**

**Technologies**

**Customer**

**Requirements**

## Platform  Environment  Requirements

**Platform  Environment  Requirements**

**6****	****12                         18                      24****	****                     30 ****	****48****	****72****	****96****	****120**

**500K**
**400K**
**300K**
** **
**200K**
**100K**

**Global Hawk**

**Altair**

**Pathfinder**

**BALLOONS**

**Helios**

**SATELLITES**

**“****PSEUDOLITES”**

**NO-MAN ZONE**

**SOUNDING ROCKETS**

**MANNED AIRCRAFT**

**DC-8**

**P-3**

**ER-2**

**WB-57**

**C-141**

**T-34**

**F/A-18**

**ENDURANCE (HRS)**

**ALTITUDE (FT)**

**BLAST**

**Condor**

## DHS & NASA  Platform  Requirements

**DHS & NASA  Platform  Requirements**

**500K**
**400K**
**300K**
** **
**200K**
**100K**

**Condor**

**Global Hawk**

**Altair**

**Pathfinder**

**Helios**

**SATELLITES**

**“****PSEUDOLITES”**

**NO-MAN ZONE**

**SOUNDING ROCKETS**

**MANNED AIRCRAFT**

**DC-8**

**P-3**

**ER-2**

**WB-57**

**C-141**

**T-34**

**F/A-18**

**ENDURANCE (HRS)**

**ALTITUDE (FT)**

**NASA:  Satellite Cal/Val**
**              ****Diurnal Research**
**              ****Mars Testing**

**DHS:  Border/Port Patrol**
**           ****Hazmat Response**

**BLAST**

**Condor**

**BALLOONS**

**6****	****12                         18                      24****	****                     30 ****	****48****	****72****	****96****	****120**

## Technologies  Overview

**What is just over the horizon in:**
**Aerostructures**
**Power/Propulsion**
**Flight Controls**
**Sensors**
**Autonomous Capability**

## Aerostructures

**Autonomic (Self-Repairing) Materials**
-  Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) microcapsules to “heal” cracks
- Ionomer coatings to “self-clean” surfaces
- Biologically active molecular arrays to “regrow” damage
**Transgenetic Biopolymers**
- Bio-production of spider silk from goat milk (“Biosteel”)

## Transgenetic  Biopolymers

**Spider silk is... ****	**
- Strong: greater tensile strength than steel’s
- Flexible:  Can stretch 30x its length
- Lightweight:  25% lighter than composites
**Each goat produces 4-22 grams/day of silk protein**** **
**Status**
- Over 150 genetically modified goats bred
- Silk protein extraction process under development
**SME:  Dr. J. Turner, Nexia Biotechnologies**

## Autonomic  Materials

**Status:  NSF/USAF/Motorola funded research project**
**SME:  Dr S. White, University of Illinois**

## Power/Propulsion

**Fuel Cells**
- Mass specific power (hp/lb) approaching that of internal combustion engines
- Sources of fuel greatly expanded
- Reformates of hydrocarbons
- Byproduct (H2S) of oil and natural gas wells
- Electrolysis of water
**	**** ****-    **Increased reliability and lower maintenance cost due to lower parts count
- Very low noise level = reduced acoustic signature
- Very low vibration level
**Triggered Isomer Heat Exchanger (TIHE)**
- Nuclear reaction short of fission; no particulate radiation
- Candidate for combined turbine/TIHE cycle engine
**Thermoelectric Generator Modules**

**2**

## Fuel  Cells

|  |  |  | 

 |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | St 3 -1997 | St 4 -1998 | St 7 -1999 | Stack 2000 | Current |
| Max. Power: | 37-41 kW | 40 kW | 50 -120 kW | 80 -120 kW | 102 kW |
| Power density: | 0.26 kW/l
0.16 kW/kg | 0.77 kW/l
0.31 kW/kg | 1.10 kW/l 
0.47 kW/kg | 1.44 kW/l 
0.83 kW/kg | 1.75 kW/l 
1.25 kW/kg |
| Active area: | 500 cm2 | 500 cm2 | 800 cm2 | 800 cm2 | 250 cm2 |
| Pressure: | 2.7 bar | 2.7 bar | 2.7 bar | 1.5 - 2.7 bar | 1.2-1.5 bar |
| Temperature: | 80 °C | 80 °C | 80 °C | 80 °C | 80 °C |

**Fuel  Cells**

**GM progress in fuel cells approaching 1 hp/lb specific power**

**Specific Power  0.1 hp/lb****	****    0.2 hp/lb       0.3 hp/lb****	****     0.5 hp/lb        0.76 hp/lb**

## Triggered  Isomer  Heat  Exchanger

**Triggered  Isomer  Heat  Exchanger**

**Background**
- Isomers release energy (gamma rays) when bombarded with x-rays
- TIHE energy could heat the airflow going into a turbine in place of burning JP
- No particulate radiation occurs
**Advantages**
- No fuel combustion pollution
- No moving parts
- Extremely long endurance enabled
**Status**
- UTexas triggered a Hafnium isomer sample by dental x-rays in 1998
**SME:  Dr C. Collins, University of Texas**

## Thermoelectric  Generator  Modules

**Thermoelectric  Generator  Modules**

**Advantages**
- Converts waste heat to electricity
- No moving parts
- Small size (0.5g)
- High power density (0.2 w/g)
**Status**
- Power density goal of 0.25w/g
- Integration on micro air vehicles pending
**SME:  Dr. W. Ng, Techsburg**

## Specific  Power  Trends

## Flight  Controls

**Shape Memory Alloys (SMAs) and Polymers (SMPs)**
- Ice-shedding leading edges
- Camber-optimizing airfoils
- Actuator-less control surfaces
**Reconfigurable Flight Control Systems**
- Redundant hardware
- Adaptive software
- Neuroelectric control
- Thought control

## Shape  Memory Alloys  &  Polymers

**Deforms with electricity, relaxes to remembered shape**
**Advantages:**
**	****- Optimizes airfoil for slow/fast ****	****flight**
**	****- Reduces takeoff and landing ****	****distances**
**	****- Extends range and endurance**
**	****- Compensates for damage**
**Status:**
**	****- DARPA Morphing Aircraft Structures (MAS) and NASA/ Langley programs in progress**
**SME:  E. Havens, Cornerstone Research Group**

## Neuroelectric  Control

**Neuroelectric  Control**

**Pilot’s neuromuscular signals become control inputs**
**Advantages**
- Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control
- Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice
- Learns patterns and responses over time
- Adjusts to differences in pilots
- Relearns to fly damaged aircraft in 1/6 sec
**Status**
- Successfully tested in airliner simulator
**SME:  Dr. C. Jorgensen, NASA Ames**

## Thought  Control

**Thought  Control**

**Pilot’s EEG signals become control inputs via Blue Tooth wireless**
**Advantages**
- Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control
- Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice
- Direct brain to computer interface
**Status**
- MIT’s “Mind Balance” w/Cerebus headset
- Cyberkinetics’ “Braingate” system
- Lab demo aimed at video game market
**SME:  E. Lalor, MIT Media Lab Europe**

## Communication/Data  Links

**Film and Spray-on antennas**
- Covert, lightweight, low power, broadband (2000 MHz) RF antenna
- Reduces UAV weight by replacing dishes and gimbaled mountings
- Eliminates blanking sectors
- Provides one antenna for multiple functions (radio, data link, GPS, IFF)
- Open Question:  damage tolerance
**Multiple Quantum Well (MQW) Retromodulators**
- Covert, low power, low weight, high rate (300 Mbps) data link
- Avoids frequency congestion at RF
- Open Question:  range limitations

## Multiple  Quantum  Well  Retromodulators

**Ground Terminal**
**(courtesy Terabeam Inc.)**

**Multiple  Quantum  Well  Retromodulators**

**Laser activated “shutter” for opening data link**
**Advantages**
- Small size: 10g for 100° sector coverage
- Low power:  1W per 10 Mbps required
- Covert:  <100 mrad dispersion; invisible wavelength used
- High data rate:  4 Mbps demonstrated; 300 Mbps possible
- 	 -    Avoids frequency congestion of RF spectrum
- No pointing & tracking system needed on UAV
**Status**
- 4.2 Mbps demonstrated with a hovering UAV (Aug 01)
- Tests to expand data rate to 10 Mbps planned
**SME:  Dr. C. Gilbreath, Naval Research Lab**

## Sensors

**Imaging**
- Motion detection/reporting without imaging (passive MTI)
- Active imaging to incorporate vibration, polarimetry, and fluorescence
- 3-dimensional imaging
- One image, multiple target perspectives
**Signals**
- Full-body, conformal, broadband film/spray-on RF antennas
**Chemical/Biological**
- Diazoluminomelanin (DALM) “DNA on a chip” organic semiconductor
- Laser induced fluorescence (LIF) real time, remote agent detection

## One Image, Multiple Target Perspectives

**Active Imaging**

**One Image, Multiple Target Perspectives**

**Polarimetry**
- Tank tracks
- Foliage penetration
**Vibration**
- Engine running/stopped
- Identification by engine modulation
- Aimpoint refinement
**Fluorescence**
- POL detection
**Multi-Spectral**
- Camouflage detection Imaging
- Coordinates for targeting
**3D Imaging**
- Visual identification
- Coordinates for targeting

## Replacing  the  Pilot?

**Defining “Autonomy”**
**Human-Equivalent Computing**
- Speed
- Memory
- Algorithms ( = Thinking Patterns, Experience)
**Ethics, Law of War, ROE, union resistance, etc.**

## CREW  SIZE  TREND  ON  AIRLINERS

**- Flight Mechanics**

**- Radio Operators**

**- Flight Engineers**

**- Navigators**

**- Third Pilots**

## Autonomy

**Action**

**Knowledge**

**Information**

**Data**

## Computer  Speed  Trend

**Speed Growth Rate = 100 MIPS/decade**

**Computer  Speed  Trend**

## Speed  v.  Memory  Relationship

**20 years away from humans in MIPS and MB in a PC**

**Memory/Speed Growth Rate = 1 MB/MIP**

**Speed  v.  Memory  Relationship**

## Computer  Cost  Trends

**Computer  Cost  Trends**

## Computer  Final  Frontiers

**Computer  Final  Frontiers**

## Human  Equivalency

**“****Blue Brain” project by IBM and Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL)**
**	****- To simulate human brain down to molecular level**
**	****- Convergence of biological data and computer capabilities**
**Status:  To be operational in 2015**
**SME:  C. Peck, IBM**
**	****	****     ****H. Markram, EPFL**
**PCs lag mainframes by 10-15 years, so...**
**	****- Expect human equivalency in a PC by 2025-30**

## How  Fast  Is  Technology  Adopted?

- Sperry

- Doolittle

- Mercury

- Concorde

- Condor

- Global Hawk

## Timeframes  for  Emerging  Technologies

**2010**

**2015**

**2020**

**2025**

**2030**

**Film Antennas**

**Autonomic Materials**

**Transgenetic Biopolymers**

**Fuel Cells (MSP **_**>**_** 1hp/lb)**

**Thermoelectric Generators**

**Reconfigurable FCS (Software)**

**SMA Airfoils**

**MQW Retromodulators**

**Timeframes  for  Emerging  Technologies**

## The  Smart  UA  of  2025

- Fuel Cell Propulsion

- Shape Memory Alloy
- Control Surfaces

- Embedded Antenna Film Skin

- Spider Silk-Based
- Aerostructure

- SMA Deicing Leading Edges

- Embedded Skin Sensors

- Camber-Optimizing Airfoil

**The  Smart  UA  of  2025**

## Technology  Driving  Markets 

| Technology | Driving Market(s) |
| --- | --- |
| Transgenetic Polymers (“Biosteel”) | Pharmaceutical Industry 
(nerve agent antidote) |
| Fuel Cells, Film Antennas | Auto Industry |
| Thought Control | Video Game Industry |
| Data Links | Inflight Entertainment, Banking Industries |
| Autonomy (Computers) | PC and Video Game Industries |

**  ****The aviation industry is not the driver for UA-relevant technologies**

## UA  Customer  Forecast

**	****... ****but even if the technology becomes available, unmanned aviation will need an economic reason to grow.**
**What will the customer base for unmanned aviation look like in 2025 or 2050?**
**	****- How many?**
**	****- When?**
**	****- Why?**
**Five markets:**
**	****- Airlines and Cargo Carriers (Parts 121 and 135)**
**	****- General and Business Aviation (Part 91)**
**	****- Military**

## Trend  #1:  IFR  Traffic  Forecast

**Based on FY2000 FAA Forecast for FY2025**

## Trend  #2:  Military   UA  Growth  Trend

**2000****	****2010****	****2020****	****2030****	****2040****	****2050**

**2000**
**1800**
**1600**
**1400**
**1200**
**1000**
**800**
**600**
**400**
**200**
**0**

**Number of IFR UA Fielded**

**Percent of All Military Aircraft (16,050)**

**= 11.5% Growth/Decade**

**80**

**190**

**630**

**1510**

**3.9%**

**9.4%**

**23%**

**50%**

**1.2%**

**100**
**90**
**80**
**70**
**60**
**50**
**40**
**30**
**20**
**10**

**Trend  #2:  Military ****  ****UA  Growth  Trend**

## Trend  #3:  Crew  Size  on  Airliners

**- Flight Mechanics**

**- Radio Operators**

**- Flight Engineers**

**- Navigators**

**- Pilots by 2020?**

**- Third Pilots**

## Forecast  UA  Growth  Trend  (v.1)

**2000****	****2010****	****2020****	****2030****	****2040****	****2050**

**Percent of Aircraft in Fleet**

**3.9%**

**9.4%**

**23%**

**50%**

**1.2%**

**100**
**90**
**80**
**70**
**60**
**50**
**40**
**30**
**20**
**10**

**Forecast **** ****UA  Growth  Trend  (v.1)**

**Cargo**

**Airlines**

**Gen Av/Biz**

**33%**

**23%**

**18%**

**Military**

**11.5% Growth/Decade**

## Forecast  UA  Growth  Trend  (v.2)

**2000****	****2010****	****2020****	****2030****	****2040****	****2050**

**Percent of Aircraft in Fleet**

**3.9%**

**9.4%**

**23%**

**50%**

**1.2%**

**100**
**90**
**80**
**70**
**60**
**50**
**40**
**30**
**20**
**10**

**Forecast **** ****UA  Growth  Trend  (v.2)**

**Cargo**

**Airlines**

**Gen Av/Biz**

**Military**

**33%**

**25%**

**17% Growth/Decade**

## Positive  Influences  on  UA  Growth

**Military ****	****	****-****	****UA program trends**
**	****	****	****	****-****	****Pathfinding efforts (S&A, standards)**
**Cargo Airlines****	****-****	****Long term drive to reduce crew size**
**	****	****	****	****-****	****Long, dull, no-pax missions into ****	****	****	****	****	****Class C airport hubs**
**	****	****	****	****-****	****Expressions of interest by airlines**
**General Aviation****	****-****	****NASA Personal Air Vehicle ****	****	****	****	****	****Exploration (PAVE)--2009 demo**
**	****	****	****	****-****	****FAA expectation of ‘mini-jets”**
**	****	****	****	****-****	****Flashover point in commute distance**

## UA  GROWTH  BY  IFR  SEGMENT

|  | 2000 | 2025 | 2050 | Rationale |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Military | 0.5% x 10%=
0.05% | 23% x 5%=
1.2% | 50% x 2%=
1% | 2000-2015 DoD programming |
| Cargo | 0% x 15%=
0% | 10% x 27%=
2.7% | 50% x 43%=
22% | Crew size trend;
Fedex interest |
| Airlines | 0% x 55%=
0% | 0% x 52%=
0% | 25% x 43%=
11% | Fallout from Cargo |
| Gen Aviation | 0% x 12%=
0% | 0% x 11%=
0% | 33% x 9%=
3% | NASA PAVE program matures;
Commuter interest |
| Business | 0% x 8%=
0% | 0% x 5%=
0% | 33% x 3%=
1% | Fallout from NASA PAVE |
|    Total  %
   Unmanned | 
0.05% | 
3.9% | 
38% |  |

## IFR  TRAFFIC  FORECAST  WITH  UA

**Based on FAA Forecast for FY2025**

**  ****Unmanned percentages of IFR traffic:**
**	****  ****0.05% ****	****	****      3.9%****	****	****	****38%**

## Summary:  Technology  Trends

**Away from hydraulics and combustion**
- Toward all-electric
**Away from connected, moving parts**
- Toward a single morphing part
**Away from data acquisition and relay (data link intensive)**
- Toward data        information        knowledge       action (processor intensive)
**Away from inorganic-based technologies**
- Toward bio-engineered components
**Away from manned aircraft debuting the latest aviation technologies**
- Toward unmanned aircraft assuming this role

## Conclusions

**A number of highly innovative technologies applicable to UA will be emerging over the next 25 years**
**The aviation market will not be driving these technologies**
**Cargo airlines are the “great commercial hope” for UA**

## Further Reading

_**FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts, FY2015, 2020 and 2025.**_
_**Infinity Point **_**web magazine, **_**www.infinitypoint.com**_
**Kaku, Michio.  **_**Visions:  How Science will Revolutionize the**_**    **_**21**__**st**__** Century.**_**  Anchor Books, 1997**
**Moravic, Hans.  **_**Robot**_**.  Cambridge Press, 1999.**
_**OSD Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap, 2005-2030**_**.**

**Further Reading**

## Nuke Newcome

- 703-684-2900
- www.sra.com
- www.uavforum.com

## NASA Morphing Video

**NASA Morphing Video**

## OVERVIEW

## Future of Computing

**Future of Computing**

- 1 PHz

- 100 THz

- 10 THz

- 100 GHz

- 10 GHz

- 1 GHz

- 1 THz

- Processor Speed

- Calculations/Second

- 10

- 10

- 10

- 10

- 10

- 10

- 10

- 19

- 18

- 17

- 16

- 15

- 14

- 13

**Solid State**

**Transition**

**Moletronics**

**Silicon**

**Indium Phosphide**

- 0.1 micron limit to solid state devices

- Human Brain

## Platform Requirements