# Presentation: 693475

## Energy Statistics – Bhutan:Statistics and Forecast Products Recommendation

- Mark Rodekohr and Workshop Participants
- (Based on an earlier presentation by Dechen Wangmo, Bhutan DOE)

- Bhutan
- January 2005
- South Asia Regional Initiative - Energy

## Importance of Energy Statistics

- Resource utilization, investment and consumption decisions require accurate and timely information/data.
- For the countries of South Asian region, the governments need a lot of information for planning purpose for example either under-building or overbuilding electric generation and transmission systems can and have had severe economic consequences.
- Prospective investors need to know about the potential size and institutional characteristics of energy markets.

## Who needs data?

- Government (Central, State, Local Bodies)
- Existing or potential entities engaged in doing business in the sectors.
- Financial 	Institutions
- Investors
- Academics
- NGOs / Consultants
- Media (Journalists due to their ability to communicate with the general public)
- Multilateral/ Bilateral Agencies
- Energy Bulk Suppliers / Retailers

## How would they use it?

- Government – Planning for resource utilization, investment, tax regulations etc.
- Business – investment, production, pricing decisions
- Foreign Investors, Multilateral Institutions – Lending
- Academics – research work

## Bhutan Energy Data Users

- Planning commission
- Ministry of Finance-Arrange fund
- Ministry of Trade & Industry-decide export & import issues
- Researchers/Consultants
- Investors
- Private Firms

## Bhutan Background

- Current electricity consumers - Around 36,000
- Towns electrified - 40
- Villages electrified - 552
- Total estimated households - 1,00,000
- Rural households - Over 65,000
- Current priority - Rural electrification

## Status of Transmission & Distribution Lines

- 220 kV - 71 km d/c, 87.69 km s/c
- 132 kV – 262.33 km
- 66 kV - 234.77 km
- 33 kV - 248 km
- 11 kV (OH) - 954 km
- 11 kV (UG) - 15 km
- 6.6 kV - 89 km
- 400/230 V (OH) - 1108 km
- 400/230 V (UG) - 45 km

## Slide 8

## Future Power Programme

- As per Vision 2020 Document
- 	Electricity for all.
- 3000 MW additional hydroelectric power generation capacity.

## 9th Five Year Plan(2003-2007) 

- To electrify 15,000 households(for detail info. see map-3)
- Feasibility study for large hydropower plants:
- 	Punatsangchhu stage II-650 MW
- 	Daglai Project-608MW
- 	Kolongchhu Project-290MW

## Bhutan Existing Energy Data

- Types of energy produced-
- 	-Hydroelectric..........426.858 MW
- 	-Diesel Power...........17.078 MW
- 	-Solar.....................75 KW
- Types of energy consumed-
- 	-Electricity....Lighting,Cooking & heating
- 	-Biomass......Cooking & heating
- 	-LPG..........Cooking & lighting
- 	-Kerosine.....Cooking, lighting & heating

## Bhutan Data Collection

- Collected at different supply sections & submitted to Head Quarter for annual compilation-Power data book
- Inaccuracy in data-due to man made errors in collection, data entry, defective instruments.

## Energy Data Analysis

- Short term forecasting....energy forecast for 2003-2007 is 12% per annum
- Bhutan Electricity Authority (BEA) regulates the power sector issues

## Energy Data Checklist

## Key statistical parameters

- Resources (by energy types)
- Production, Import and Export
- Demand (by consumer categories)
- Prices
- Investment
- Tax related information

## Availability

- Dispersed sources.
- Mostly available in print format. (some priced and some non-priced)
- Availability of current information on the web is improving but the lack of a central energy statistics agency makes it difficult to find.

## Example: Google Search

## Action Plan: Statistics - Bhutan

- Identify data needs by different interest groups.
- Develop standard formats for reporting data.
- Develop uniform quality standards for data collection and publication (this may exist).
- Coordination among agencies in collecting and reporting of data.
- Move quickly to convert from hard to soft format.
- Need to build and maintain time series.
- Regular updates & estimation of missing data.

## Action Plan: Produce a Comprehensive Publicly Available Database (Consider Sri Lanka Example)

## Action Plan: Statistics - Bhutan

- Develop a comprehensive short-term (1 to 3) forecasting system to aid policy makers at all levels of government in planning and analysis.
- Review existing longer term projections for accuracy.  Make sure projections that are plans are clearly labeled as such.

## Action Plan – Regional (SARI)

- Identify a set of parameters across various sectors – Oil & Gas, Power, Coal & Non-commercial.
- Compile data to build time series and update these regular basis.
- Identify nodal institutions to do the exercise.
- Disseminate through sari web site.
- This effort could be similar to what the International Energy Agency does for its member countries.