# Presentation: 414355

## Navy – NOAA Joint Ocean and Coastal Modeling and Forecasting

- Marie Colton
- National Ocean Service
- 2 October 2006

## Outline

- Goals and Objectives
- Purpose
- Issue
- Background
- Intersecting Issues
- Summary
- Recommendations

##  Overarching Goals and Objectives

- Goal: A global perspective on oceans and coasts through shared development and implementation of a national capability in operational ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting
- Objectives:
- Coordination of internal, external, and interagency communications and agreements
- Definition of NOAA and Navy ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting strategy
- Identification of and action along Navy/NOAA intersections

**Notes:**
- Lack of coordinated/integrated NOAA CONOPS for ocean & coastal modeling & forecasting—need to address this in order to move forward!

## Purpose

- Explicit definition of Navy and NOAA commitments for partnership in community modeling and forecasting
- Status of activities to identify actions and intersections
- Agency and joint strategies and way forward
- Solicit direct agency feedback to ensure continuity of effort and visibility
- NOAA: AA’s of cognizant offices
- Navy: CNO/CNMOC (McGee), Oceanographer, SPAWAR, CNR: ONR, NRL

**Notes:**
Issue straddles requirements to operations.  In NOAA we need to gain common perspective among line offices.  In Navy we need to speak to CNO and CNO claimancies. 

## Issue

- Ocean/Coastal Community Modeling Requirements Definition: Navy/NOAA
- Missions remain separate
- Requirement Overlaps identified for effectiveness
- Common approaches developed
- Articulate and align capabilities to increase technical support for Navy and NOAA ocean/coastal forecasting
- Develop system of consistent compatible ocean models that pass information and scale from global to regional to very local
- Specific projects to quickly advance cooperation and coordination process

**Notes:**
- - I have tried to convey some of the urgency of making sure that modeling moves forward in a coordinated fashion

## Issue

- Who is involved
- 4 NOAA Line Offices (NESDIS, NOS, NWS/NCEP, OAR)
- 5 Navy Offices (CNMOC, FNMOC, NAVO, ONR, NRL)
- What is involved
- Ocean Modeling Action Plan (NOAA SAB)
- Tri-Agency Atmospheric Modeling Partnership (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability)
- IOOS Development Plan
- Navy/NOAA Memorandum of Agreement (2004-2014)
- NOAA Environmental Modeling Program

## Background

- Navy AMOP Meetings
- September 2005 (Naval Observatory), February 2006 (Pearl Harbor), September 2006 (Stennis Space Center)
- March 29, 2006: Joint Planning Session, NOAA Headquarters, Silver Spring
- June 13-14, 2006: Joint Workshop, Stennis Space Center

**Notes:**
- Relevance of atmospheric modeling partnership—independent but parallel to ocean modeling efforts
- See “additional slides” section for expansion of purpose and outcomes from the joint Navy-NOAA meetings

## Intersecting Issue #1:Operational Ocean Modeling and Forecasting

- Key Activities
- Data availability, access, and distribution
- Concept of operations (CONOPS)
- Shared development environment
- Shared products and services

- Key Approaches
- Demonstration project: align satellite altimetry observing requirements
- Portal for ocean modeling outputs (NCDC)
- Operational backup and data assimilation
- Earth System Modeling Framework

**Notes:**
- Need the Navy CONOPS
- Joint statements on ocean remote sensing
- IOOS DMAC with DOD joint efforts
- “Shared products and services” (along with further definition/mapping of CONOPS) may also go in Issue #5/Coordination and Program
- See “additional slides” section for expansion and examples from Navy/NOAA workshop

## Developing NOAA Strategy

**Developing NOAA Strategy**

*Space*

*Time*

**Phenomena of Interest**

*Space*

*Time*

**Observing Systems**

**Observations & OSSE**
- IOOS, NESDIS, OAR, JCSDA

**Data Assimilation & OSE**
- NESDIS, NWS, OAR, JCSDA

**Operational Ocean and Coastal Forecast Guidance**
- NOS, NWS Ops

**Products and Services**

**Research**

**Operations**

**Giant Bluefin Tuna**

**HAB Bulletin**

**ENSO Update**

**Notes:**
Want to be able to map this against Navy CONOPS

## Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting

**In situ**

**OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION**

**MODEL ATTRIBUTES:**
**Global to Regional Scale**

**MODEL ATTRIBUTES:**
**Global to Regional Scale**

**	****	****OPERATIONAL**
**	****               ****OCEAN FORECASTS**
**  ****Climate Forecast System****	****                          Real-Time Ocean Forecast System**

**Shared history, coding, and data processing**

**OBSERVATIONS**

**CLIMATE FORECAST**

**OCEAN FORECAST**

- http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/

- http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

**Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System**

**COASTAL OCEAN**
**BOUNDARY SPECIFICATION**

**MODEL ATTRIBUTES:**
**Regional to Local Scale**
**Rapidly Relocatable**

- http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html

**Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting**

**Notes:**
Again, want to be able to map against Navy infrastructure
Both of these diagrams show roles and responsibilities for all NOAA offices

## Intersecting Issue #2:Ocean Model and Forecast Development

- Key Activities
- Standardization of models
- Data assimilation
- Shared development environment
- Model validation and evaluation

- Key Approaches
- Model characterization: HYCOM, ADCIRC, ROMS, WW3, SWAN, Tides, PC Tides
- Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
- Model test beds and performance metrics
- User/developer groups

**Notes:**
- Fund ocean assimilation (JCSDA)
- Coordinate user/developer groups with IOOS MAST
- Call up/sponsor meeting

## Intersecting Issue #3:Technologies and Standards

- Key Activities
- Source code
- Standard tools and utilities
- Standard inputs
- Standard outputs

- Key Approaches
- Common configuration management
- Software and information technologies
- Databases
- Static inputs and forcing functions
- Data exchange formats
- ESMF

**Notes:**
- Joint IT working group?

## Intersecting Issue #4:Transition Methodology

- Key Activities
- Recommend metrics for common validation and intercomparison of models
- Transition plans: development to operations
- Coordinate system development and transition

- Key Approaches
- Follow-on workshops
- Mapping across Navy and NOAA transition plans
- NOAA Transition Board
- Navy Rapid Transition Process
- Technical readiness levels

**Notes:**
- What are the options for operational transition?  How do we decide and coordinate?

## Define Current Infrastructure for Common Modeling and Forecasting

| Hardware | Software | Config. Management | NOAA Capabilities | Navy Capabilities | Programs |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | HYCOM | Working group |  |  |  |
|  | ADCIRC | Working group |  |  |  |
|  | WW3 | Working group (Planned) |  |  |  |
|  | GFDL Models |  |  |  |  |

## Intersecting Issue #5:Coordination and Program

- Ensure chains of command are informed and continue to support the process
- Maintain a steady flow of results and adjust coordination accordingly
- Agreements for shared products or services or proposed joint efforts

## Recommendations

**Internal: Establish NOAA Administrative Ocean/Coastal Modeling Oversight Panel**
- Dialogue on ocean model/forecast requirements
- Resource support for ocean modeling working groups
- Coordination among appropriate NOAA goals and programs
- Oversight on end-to-end ocean/coastal forecasting systems
**Joint:  Articulate and align Navy and NOAA requirements and approaches**
- Complete individual and joint Navy-NOAA ocean/coastal forecasting CONOPS
- Standardization of models (HYCOM, ADCIRC, WW3, ROM)
- Data Assimilation (expand JCSDA to include ocean/coastal activities)
- Development of technical approaches to common issues
- Joint high-level meeting for agency direction to ensure continuity of effort and visibility
- Formalize NOAA and Navy ocean forecasting activities (annexes to MOA, Tri-Agency)
- Develop communications plan for joint statement on Navy-NOAA community ocean modeling effort
**External: Integrate with external partner strategies**
- Provide guidance to IOOS Modeling and Analysis Steering Team, sponsor community modeling workshops
- Ocean Research Priorities Plan
- ESMF

**Notes:**
- Arrow goes to #21-23: Developing NOAA Strategy & Current Infrastructure
- Answering “How will we get there?”

## Alternative #1

- Ad hoc coordination with NOAA “matrix” and Navy
- Pros
- No funds needed
- No obligations necessary (flexible)
- Cons
- Doesn’t meet urgency of need for operational ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting
- Proliferation of options to solve problems independently
- Technical issues not solved efficiently
- One NOAA common voice not heard
- No clear message to external community
- Cannot guarantee commitments or quality

**Notes:**
Solicit ideas for these here

## Alternative #2

- Formalized NOAA AMOP to work with Navy AMOP to address technical issues
- Ocean Model development, characterization, standards
- Ocean Observations and assimilation; OSSE, OSE
- Data distribution and analysis
- Products and services
- IT coordination (hardware and software)
- Pros
- Completes NOAA end-to-end parallel mechanism for discussing ocean and coastal forecasting requirements, CONOPS, approval of research to operations, and technical execution
- Establishes clear mechanism for negotiating ocean community modeling commitments with external partners, including Navy
- Ability to fund, schedule, and execute implementation activities
- Cons
- May be construed as another governance committee, but must be characterized as an implementation body

## Summary

- Navy/NOAA working together to establish common ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting frameworks for future success
- Building on mutual and unique strengths in operational oceanography and coastal services through examination of existing efforts
- Providing harmonized environmental models for external communities to focus on and provide physical basis for ecological forecasting

**Notes:**
First two questions: (1) Where are we now? (2) Where are we going?

## Extended Discussion

- Communications
- NOAA Strategy
- Integration

## Communications:Developing Synergies Within and Outside NOAA

- Global  Local physical ocean modeling
- Coordinate with Navy research and operations (CNMOC/FNMOC/NAVO, NRL, ONR)
- Via NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Program (???)
- Advancing ecosystem modeling and forecasting
- Alignment of NOAA research and operations (NESDIS STAR; NMFS; NOS CO-OPS, CSDL, NCCOS; NWS NCEP; OAR)
- Engaging the external modeling community
- IOOS Modeling Caucus and Modeling & Analysis Steering Team (MAST)
- JSOST Ocean Research Priorities Plan – Forecasting subtopic
- National governance
- Development of Tri-Agency NUOPC

**Notes:**
May want to add a graphic later that shows JSOST organization field and places/intersections of NOAA, DoD, NASA, etc.

## Developing NOAA Strategy

- Starting from existing capabilities
- Physical models
- Considering user requirements
- Coordinating activity in support of NOAA Environmental Modeling Program
- Regional approach to management
- Ecosystem forecasting alternative (Ecosystem Goal)
- Next-generation integrated basin-scale operational ocean modeling system
- Interface to ecosystem modeling and forecasting efforts

**Notes:**
Added “operational” in third subhead, even though Fred’s presentation doesn’t have it—is this correct, or is this modeling system a research system?

## Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting

**Satellite**
**(AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT****)**

**In situ**
**(ARGO, Buoys, Ships)**

**OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION**

**RT-OFS-GODAE**
**NOPP**
**EMC**

**CFS-GODAS**
**NCO/ODA**
**EMC**
** ****NOPP-JPL (ECCO)**

**       ****OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS**
**Climate Forecast System****	****	****Real-Time Ocean Forecast System**

**Data Cutoff**

_**CFS: 2 week data cutoff**_

_**RTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff**_

**Shared history, coding, and data processing**

- MOM-3  MOM-4  GUOM

- HYCOM  GUOM

**OBSERVATIONS**

**CLIMATE FORECAST**

**OCEAN FORECAST**

- http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/

- http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/

**Coastal Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System**

**Coastal Ocean Boundary**
**Specification**

**ODAAS**
**NOS/CSDL/CO-OPS**
**NWS/EMC/NCO**

- http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html

**In situ**
**(ARGO, Buoys, C-Man, NWLON, River Gage)**

**Satellite**
**(Altimetry, SST****)**

**Current NOAA Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting**

## Current Infrastructure for Modeling and Forecasting

- Mostly physics modeling and data assimilation
- Working towards integrating ecological modeling
- Downscaling from global to regional to local models
- Need to promote existing operations within and outside of NOAA

**Notes:**
NOTE: Recognizing NOAA assets and contributions

## Developing NOAA Ocean and Coastal Modeling and Forecasting Strategy:Ecosystems Modeling

- Starting from existing capabilities
- NOS Modeling Prioritization Project
- Considering user requirements
- Coordinating activity in support of NOAA Ecosystem Goal Team
- Regional approach to management
- Ecosystem forecasting alternative
- Connections to Navy ecosystem modeling needs
- Water quality, ocean optics, rivers and estuaries, marine mammals
- Seamless suite of products and services

## Slide 26

**Notes:**
In the presentation, click on the figure to return to the ecosystem forecasting slide

## NOAA Coordination

**FORECAST TIME FRAME**

- REAL TIME

- DAYS

- MONTHS

- YEARS

**USER GROUPS**

- TRANSPORTATION

- COASTAL HAZARDS

- WATER QUALITY &
- HUMAN HEALTH

- COASTAL HABITATS

- FORECAST UNCERTAINTY

- Toxicity

- Toxicity

- Flood forecasts

- Oil weathering

- Oil weathering

- Geomorphology

- Risks/exposure

- Ocean color/primary production

- Invasive species suscept.

- Larval trans./MPA design

- Climate effects/food web

- Storm surge

- Shellfish bed closures

- Decision support tools

- Population dynamics

- Socioeconomic models

- Socio-economic models

- Restoration

- Geomorphology

- Levels, currents, S & T

- Spill planning

- Resource harvest

- Disease transmission

- Hypoxic zone formation

- Recovery curves

- HABs (formation, upwelling, regional monitoring & prediction)

- Particle trajectory (pollution, invasive species, HAB, sediment, multimedia/multipath sources)
- Biological/physical coupling

- Ecosystems (SLR, multiple stressors, hypoxia, change)

- Climate effects/water level

**Draft NOAA Ecosystem Modeling and Forecast Products (Operational, In Development, and Needs)**

**Notes:**
- I am working to update this with the latest distillation of modeling by MPP
- In the presentation, click on the title to link to the NWS “Seamless Suite” slide

## Recommendations

- Complete NOAA, Navy, and joint CONOPS for operational ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting
- Standardization of models (HYCOM, ADCIRC, WW3, ROM)
- Coordinate among appropriate NOAA goals and programs
- Specify continued NOAA-wide involvement
- Resource support for working groups
- Recognition of and dialogue on requirements
- Clarify IOOS roles and responsibilities in community modeling development (Modeling and Analysis Steering Team)
- Resource support for community modeling workshops
- Formalize NOAA and Navy governance in ocean and coastal modeling and forecasting
- Technical cooperation via annexes to MOU
- Programmatic coordination via Tri-Agency NUOPC and other means
- Develop communications plan

**Notes:**
Needs to be more concrete—specific recommendations with respect to agreements on HYCOM  global ocean model, ADCIRC, WW3

## Schedule of Significant Events and Milestones

**Notes:**
Could either go here or before slide of recommendations

## Additional and Expanded Slides

## Background

- Navy AMOP Meetings: September 2005 (Naval Observatory) and February 2006 (Pearl Harbor)
- March 29, 2006: Joint Planning Session, NOAA Headquarters, Silver Spring, MD
- Purpose: Develop a plan of action and milestones for short-term joint activities
- Outcomes: Identified two important questions, “how will we coordinate?” and “what are the details of the models?”
- June 13-14, 2006: Joint Workshop, Stennis Space Center, MS
- Purpose: Answer “how will we coordinate?” question
- Outcomes: Identified four “issue areas” for further cooperation and coordination
- Relevant Statements, Policies, and Opinions
- Ocean Action Modeling Plan (NOAA SAB)
- Navy/NOAA Memorandum of Agreement (2004-2014)
- Tri-Agency Agreement (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability)
- IOOS Development Plan

## Technical Issue #1:Operational Ocean Modeling

- Data availability, access, and distribution
- Coordinated satellite altimetry requirements
- Common portal for static and time-dependent boundary data bases
- Common portal for archive of model output products
- Announce availability of lateral boundary conditions supporting regional and coastal models
- Shared processing requirements
- Concept of operations (CONOPS)
- Operational backup of existing operational ocean modeling and data assimilation
- Shared development environment
- Implementation of ESMF for coupling operational modeling systems
- Shared products and services
- Definition of requirements (geographic and temporal scales)

## Technical Issue #2:Ocean Model Development

- Standardization of models
- Endorse existing developer/user groups for HYCOM and ADCIRC
- Encourage new developer/user group for wave modeling (WW3, SWAN)
- ROM and POM?
- Data assimilation
- Promote Navy & NOS ocean representation on JCSDA Management Oversight Board
- Shared development environment
- Implementation of ESMF for coupling operational modeling systems
- Model validation and evaluation
- Process for joint review and recommendation of products for future coordinated development
- Announce intention to coordinate development of ocean and coastal models
- Creation of model test beds and evaluation metrics

## Technical Issue #3:Technologies and Standards

- Source code
- Encourage coordination and further development of ESMF core software
- Common configuration management approach
- Standard tools and utilities
- Workshop to review and recommend common supporting software and technologies
- Standard inputs
- Static and time-dependent boundary data bases
- Capability for access to common atmospheric forcing
- Standard outputs
- Workshop to review and recommend standardized data exchange formats and standards

## Phenomena of Interest

- Fronts,
- Eddies, &
- Filaments

- Plankton
- Migration

**Phenomena of Interest**

- 1 sec

- 1 wk

- 1 day

- 1 mo

- 1 yr

- 10 yr

- 100 yr

- 10-3 m

- 10-2 m

- 10-1 m

- 100 m

- 101 m

- 102 m

- 103 m

- 104 m

- 105 m

- 106 m

- 107 m

- Molecular
- Processes

- 1 min

- Individual
- Movement

- 1 hr

- Turbulent
- Patch Size

- Surface Waves

- Langmuir Cells

- Inertial/Internal
- & Solitary Waves

- Internal
- Tides

- Surface Tides

- Phytoplankton
- Blooms

- Synoptic Storms, River Outflows, & Sediment Resuspension

- Mesoscale phenomena

- Coastally trapped waves

- Seasonal MLD & Biomass Cycles

- ENSO

- Decadal Oscillations/
- Fish Regime Shifts

- Climate

- Spatial Scale

- Temporal Scale

*Adapted from Dickey (2003). J. Marine Systems 40-41: 5-48.*

## Observing Systems

**Observing Systems**

- 10-3 m

- 10-2 m

- 10-1 m

- 100 m

- 101 m

- 102 m

- 103 m

- 104 m

- 105 m

- 106 m

- 107 m

- Spatial Scale

- 1 sec

- 1 wk

- 1 day

- 1 mo

- 1 yr

- 10 yr

- 100 yr

- 1 min

- 1 hr

- Temporal Scale

- Moorings, Bottom Tripods, and Shore-based and Offshore-based Platforms

- AUVs

- HF Radar

- Satellites

- Planes

- Drifters, Floaters, Gliders

- Submarine & Ship Mapping

*Adapted from Dickey (2003). J. Marine Systems 40-41: 5-48.*

## Slide 37

## High Resolution Coastal Domains(Demonstrates interface between Shelf and Coastal models)

## In DevelopmentOperational Coastal Models

- Observations:  Long and short range radar, SAR, SeaWIFS, Lidar  (already using altimetry, SST, and in situ obs – C-Man, NWLON, river gages)
- Data Assimilation:  CTDs, SST, Altimetry, Fronts, Surface radars

## NOAA Coordination