# Presentation: 181176

## Smoke Transport In Georgia:Challenging Forecasts of Pollution Events 

**Smoke Transport In Georgia:****Challenging Forecasts of Pollution Events**

**Bill Murphey, *****GA EPD***
**Carlos Cardelino, *****Georgia Institute of Technology***
**Nyasha Dunkley, *****GA EPD***

**Notes:**
Actual fire near Waycross, Ga.

## Smoke Effect on Air Quality 

- Image of metro Atlanta with reduced visibility due to fire/smoke transport event on 27 May (*WSB-TV Skycam*)

**Notes:**
Reduced visibility plus health risks.

## Meteorological Factors  For Determining Exceptional Events

- Ambient concentration of pollutant
- Satellite Imagery (Fire/Smoke Imagery)
- Synoptic regime
- Surface Meteorology
- Upper Air Meteorology (Satellite, Rawinsonde, NWS Models)
- Trajectory Analysis (Hysplit)

## Study Overview

- Brief overview of historical fire activity in Okefenokee Swamp area (across southeast Georgia)
- Case study analyses of PM2.5 smoke/fire episodes on May 16th , May 22nd  and May 26th – May 28th , 2007
- Summary and future research in possible correlation between ozone and PM2.5 values during smoke events

## Brief Historical Overview - Okefenokee Fires

- First “big fire” in Okefenokee swamp recorded in 1844
- Major fire events may often be preceded by a bad drought year (i.e. 1954/1955)
- Fires are a natural, beneficial part of the swamp ecosystem

**Notes:**
Our drought in GA started with below normal rf in spring 2006. In 2007, the typical wet season from late winter thru spring never occurred. Usually see around 22 inches in Atlanta between Jan and April but got only half of this. Long stretches of hot and dry days during summer (no relief from summertime convection) plus no help from tropical systems also added to drought. One of most inactive tropical seasons since 1977.

## Brief Historical Overview - Okefenokee Fires (cont.)

- Fires in 2002 consumed ~120,405 acres of land
- “Bugaboo Scrub Fire” of 2007 was largest in history of both Georgia and Florida, burning over 600,000 acres from combined fires caused by:
- A tree falling on a power line (April 20)
- Lightning on Bugaboo Island (May 8)

**Notes:**
The GA/Fla fires joined together in mid-may.

## Case Study Analysis – May 16, 2007

- Main synoptic feature over the Southeast was an approaching frontal system with pooling up of PM2.5 across central Georgia ahead of the front
- Circulation around the western flank of the Atlantic ridge aided in transporting smoke and particle pollution one day earlier (May 15th) from northern Florida, then turning northward along the Alabama/Georgia border
- A tire fire was occurring in Butts County near Jackson early on 16 May in concert with the wildfire smoke

**Notes:**
Tire fire influenced southern portions briefly.

## Hourly PM2.5 - Waycross

**Filter spots collected from Waycross, using a BAMS sampler (in microg/m****3****)**

**Notes:**
Beta attenuation monitor (spots) vs USFS Dataram 17 (graph). Note darkest spot is almost opaque (reading was >1000microg/m3 for same time period on May16th. Dataram uses scattering coefficient simalt to neph, while BAMS is direct mass measurement. The plot above is from optical depth measurements with a nephelometer.

## Atlanta Ozone/PM2.5 Monitoring Stations

**Atlanta Ozone/PM2.5 Monitoring Stations**

**Notes:**
13 county non-attainment area covers 4030 sq miles

## Hourly PM2.5 – Metro Atlanta

**Hourly PM****2.5**** – Metro Atlanta**

## Directional Flow from Waycross Fires

**Directional Flow from Waycross Fires**

- SODAR PA5-LR low level wind data and Skew-T diagrams for Jacksonville,FL and Peachtree City,GA (15 May) showing _***light SE flow***_** **

## Backward Trajectory Analysis

- Back trajectory analysis using NOAA HYSPLIT model ending at 1000 UTC on 16 May ran 24 hours back from Macon,GA. Transport pathway originates from northern Florida fire areas. Also shown plotted on Google Earth

## 16z Surface Analysis 

**16z Surface Analysis**

**Notes:**
Pre-frontal pooling.

## Upper Air Analysis (500mb)

## Aerosol Optical Depth &

**Aerosol Optical Depth &**
**Visible Imagery **

- MODIS – NASA Terra Image

- GOES Composite Image

**Notes:**
Pre-frontal pooling

## Case Study – May 22nd, 2007

- Southeasterly winds around a strong surface ridge centered off the New England coast
- Skew-T plot for FFC at 12z  on 22 May, showed a strong morning temperature inversion
- Winds pushed smoke northwest from the Waycross fires and concentrated the smoke at ground level
- Yorkville monitoring site had an O3 violation on 22 May corresponding with high PM2.5 values

**Notes:**
Fires continued burning near Waycross.

## AOD and Visible Imagery

**Visible Satellite Imagery for 22 May, showing smoke plumes from Waycross streaming up towards NW Georgia**

**MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth imagery showing high AOD corresponding with smoke plumes on visible satellite**

## Satellite Fire Detection & Back Trajectory

## Case Study - May 26th-28th, 2007

- Overall synoptic pattern was characterized by a strong Atlantic High pressure system over the Southeast
- Backward trajectory analysis supported the progression of smoke from the South Georgia fires wrapping around the surface high into central Alabama and wrapping back around into the western portions of Georgia
- The position of the Atlantic High center by May 27th was situated east enough of north Georgia to promote some return flow from the SSW, S, and SE

## Surface Analysis – 12z May 27th

**Notes:**
Strong Atlantic Surface Ridge.

## Upper Air Analysis (500mb) 

- H

**Notes:**
Strong upper level ridge at 500mb.

## 12Z FFC Sounding – May 27th 

## Smoke Plumes from Wildfires

**Smoke Plumes from Wildfires**

*NOAA Fire/Smoke Detection imagery showing smoke trailing across western Georgia from Ware County fires in SE Georgia.** *

## Wind Data – May 28th

**Wind Data – May 28th**

## Future Research – Ozone/PM2.5 Correlation During Smoke Events

**Decreased O****3**** values; Elevated PM****2.5**** values; **
***Synoptic Conditions*****:**
**Stable/high pressure**

**Notes:**
Lack of incoming TUVR could help decrease photochemistry. But then again ozone could be high (near the fire source) because high isoprene given off by trees from heat, so could be competing mechanisms. Isoprene is a source of organics.

## Future Research – Ozone/PM2.5 Correlation During Smoke Events (cont.)

**Max 24-hrs PM2.5 (ug/cm)**

**Max 8-hrs Ozone (ppbv)**

**2007**

- Smoke events

**Notes:**
Ozone/PM2.5 relationship during ozone season shows if we eliminate smoke events from 2007, then similar relationship exists to 2006. Need to look at more individual smoke cases.

## Summary

- Meteorological conditions had to be just right for these smoke transport episodes to affect Metro
- Two cases having different synoptic conditions:
- 		a. pre-frontal pooling
- 		b. transport around western flank of ridge
- Need to understand ozone behavior better during smoke episodes.