# Presentation: 305871

## DECISION MAKING

- DECISIONS, DECISIONS, DECISIONS

## A Story of Decision Making

- September 15, 2001
- Camp David
- Decision: What do we do to respond to the 9-11 attacks.
- Participants: President Bush and Key Members of the National Security decision process.

## THE MISSILES OF OCTOBER

- A VIDEO CLIP ILLUSTRATING THE CONCLUSION OF A DECISION-MAKING PROCESS.

## Slide 4

## THE HUNT FOR RED OCTOBER

- A video clip illustrating a decision process at the National Security Council level.
- Note the importance of the ‘outsider’ in this group.

## Slide 6

## Six Little Words

- He throws it; I hits it!
- 		Attributed to James Bell

## Three Little Words

- CONSCIOUSNESS/AWARENESS
- PROCESS
- MODEL

## A QUICK QUIZ

- DECISION-MAKING IS AN ART.
- DECISION-MAKING IS A SCIENCE.
- DECISION-MAKING IS BOTH.
- DECISION-MAKING IS NONE OF THE ABOVE.

## ANOTHER QUICK QUIZ

- DECISION MAKERS ARE BORN WITH THE SKILLS TO MAKE DECISIONS.
- DECISION MAKERS ARE MADE BY VIRTUE OF THEIR POSITION, EXPERIENCE, AND LEARNED SKILLS.

## WHY DECISIONS FAIL*

- FAILURE TO RECONCILE ISSUES.
- FAILURE TO MANAGE ‘FORCES’ AFFECTED BY THE DECISION.
- AMBIGUOUS DIRECTION-SETTING.
- LIMITED SEARCH FOR OPTIONS, AND LITTLE INNOVATION.
- * WHY DECISIONS FAIL (PAUL NUTT)

## WHY DECISIONS FAIL (cont’d.)

- E. MISUSE OF EVALUATION.
- F. IGNORING ETHICAL QUESTIONS.
- G. FAILURE TO LEARN.

## HIERARCHY OF DECISION PROCESSES

- Level I: Leader makes decision based on available information; consultation not necessary.
- Level II: Leader makes decision based on information provided by subordinates whose role is minimal.
- Level III: Leader makes decision based on individual ideas of some subordinates who are not brought together as a group.

## HIERARCHY OF DECISION PROCESSES—cont’d.

- Level IV: Leader makes decision based on shared ideas at a meeting, though the decision may or may not reflect the influence of the subordinates.
- Level V: Group makes decision based on shared ideas at a meeting in which the leader functions like a chairman or facilitator.

## INDIVIDUALS  vs.  GROUPS

- 				      **USE****	****	****   USE ****	****	****                     INDIVIDUALS****	****           GROUPS**

- _IF the Problem is:_	            Simple or 	          Complex or				            Unimportant	          Very Important

- _Level of Trust_			Low			High

- _Time_				Not Much		Sufficient

- _Acceptance of Decision__and Implementation_		Unnecessary		Critical

## ABOUT THIS WORD ‘CONSENSUS’

**PROBLEM SOLVING (PROBLEM SOLVING) THAT IS OPEN TO CREATIVE, NEW POSSIBILITIES**
**CONDUCTED IN AN ATMOSPHERE WHERE ALL PEOPLE AND VIEWS ARE HEARD**
**WHERE UNANIMITY IS DESIRABLE, **_***BUT NOT REQUIRED***_

## APOLLO 13

- A FILM CLIP ILLUSTRATING A GROUP’S HANDLING—REALLY TWO GROUPS—ONE IN THE CAPSULE, AND ONE IN MISSION CONTROL--OF AN EMERGENCY.
- NOTE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE LEADER IN EACH CASE.

## Slide 18

## GENERAL SYSTEMS MODEL

**INPUTS**

**PROCESS**

**OUTPUTS**

**FEEDBACK + and -**

## Problem Solving/Decision Model*

- Identify the Problem/Decision
- Create Alternatives
- Choose an Alternative/Make a Decision
- Implement the Choice/Decision
- Evaluate the Outcome
- * This model is taught at the Emergency Management Institute, Emmitsburg, MD.

## Slide 21

## HIGH PERFORMING TEAMS

**Envision goals**
**Design process plan**
**Assess situation**
**Expand frames of reference**
**Focus time horizons**
**Detect gaps & ambiguities**
**Clarify value trade-offs**

_**HIGH CONCEPTUAL LEVEL**__**	**__**SUCCESS FACTORS**_

## HIGH PERFORMING TEAMS

**Envision goals**
**Design process plan**
**Assess situation**
**Expand frames of reference**
**Focus time horizons**
**Detect gaps & ambiguities**
**Clarify value trade-offs**

**Foresight, vision**
**Intent, framework, roadmap**
**Viewpoints, brainstorm, evaluation**
**Perspectives, diversity, divergence, exploration**
**Frames of reference, bounding, convergence, urgency**
**Missing links, defer, negotiate**
**Acknowledgement, question, clarification**

_**HIGH CONCEPTUAL LEVEL**__**	**__**SUCCESS FACTORS**_

## LOW PERFORMING TEAMS

**Envision goals**
**Design process plan**
**Assess situation**
**Expand frames of reference**
**Focus time horizons**
**Detect gaps & ambiguities**
**Clarify value trade-offs**

**Unclear assumptions**
**No map; muddling**
**Quick convergence**
**Limited exploration;fail to see complexity.**
**Too near; or, too far. **
**Missing links; failure to deal with ambiguity.**
**Blur distinction;fail to question****.**

_**CONCEPTUAL LEVEL**__**	**__**FAILURE FACTORS**_

## HIGH PERFORMANCE TEAMS

**Strengthen team identity**
**Control internal politics**
**Foster competitive debate**
**Forge consensus w/ qualification**

_**PRUDENT CONSENSUS APPROACH **_**        **_**SUCCESS FACTORS**_

## HIGH PERFORMANCE TEAMS

**Strengthen team identity**
**Control internal politics**
**Foster competitive debate**
**Forge consensus w/ qualification**

**Solidarity, selflessness****	**
**Openness****	****	****	**
**Devil’s advocate, dialogue vice debate**
**Harmonize, voice**

_**PRUDENT CONSENSUS APPROACH **_**        **_**SUCCESS FACTORS**_

##  LOW PERFORMANCE TEAMS

**Strengthen team identity**
**Control internal politics**
**Foster competitive debate**
**Forge consensus w/ qualification**

**Introduce and start****	**
**Hidden agendas; micromanage****	****	**
**Free-for-all; or conceal differences**
**Agree, but not really.**

_**PRUDENT CONSENSUS APPROACH **_**        **_**FAILURE FACTORS**_

## HIGH PERFORMANCE TEAMS

**Keep pace****	****	**
**Manage time****	****	**
**Adjust/self-correct**

**                 **_**VIGILANT **_
**     **_**DECISION MANAGMENT**_**                  **_**SUCCESS FACTORS**_

## HIGH PERFORMANCE TEAMS

**Keep pace****	****	**
**Manage time****	****	**
**Adjust/self-correct**

**Optimum expediency, timliness**
**Gate-keeping****	****	**
**Feedback/review**

**                 **_**VIGILANT **_
**     **_**DECISION MANAGMENT**_**                  **_**SUCCESS FACTORS**_

## LOW PERFORMANCE TEAMS

**Keep pace****	****	**
**Manage time****	****	**
**Adjust/self-correct**

**Slow; centralize; rely on leader too much**
**End too soon****	****	**
**Linear and unreflective.**

**                 **_**VIGILANT **_
**     **_**DECISION MANAGMENT**_**                  **_**FAILURE FACTORS**_

## IN DEALING WITH SYSTEMS, YOU CAN DENY, BUT CANNOT ESCAPE THE CONSEQUENCES OF ...     FEEDBACK.

***Your only choice is steering the group system by understanding and seeking feedback or abdicating leadership and letting the system run unattended under its own steam.***

## After Action Review 

-  Communicating Openly
-  Sharing Information
-  Developing a Culture of Shared Responsibility
-  Nonthreatening Environment
-  Willing To Take Risk
-  Structured Feedback and Innovation Process
-  Not a Critique
-  Doesn’t Fix Blame

## Decision-Making in Groups

**        **_**ASSETS**_
- Greater Pool of Information, Knowledge and Perspective
- Increased Member Satisfaction with Outcomes
- Better Understanding of Outcomes
- Less Resistance to Eventual Decisions
- Higher Commitment to Action

**      **_**LIABILITIES**_
-   Takes Longer
-  Subordinates May Question
-     Leader’s Competence
-  Assumes Subordinates Have
-     Needed KSAs
-  Domination by an Individual
-  Sets a Precedent
-  Goal Displacement
-  Possible Bias (Groupthink)
**          **_**EITHER**_
-  Time Constraints
-  Greater Risk Taking
-   Deviance

## Stages of Group Development

| Stage | Task Activity | Interpersonal Relations | Leader Actions |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Orientation
(Forming) |  Developing Goal Orientation
 Learning Roles
 Determining Energy
 Collective Problem Solving (CPS) | Determining Levels of Closeness and Communication (Intimacy) | Clarify Goals and Roles |
| Internal Problem-Solving (Storming)  |  Achieving Consensus
 CPS
  Finalizing Preparations
    to Get the Job Done | Resolving Dependency 
 Forming Coalitions
 Conflict |  Build Consensus
 Manage Dependency and Conflict |
| Growth and Productivity (Norming) |  Accomplishing the task
 CPS |  Encouraging Conformity
 Controlling Deviance
   |  Attend to Member’s Needs
 Avoid Dominance
 Encourage Deviance
 Cultivate and Use Informal Leaders |
| Evaluation & Control (Performing) |  Collectively Examining 
 Correcting Weaknesses
 CPS | Experimenting with Freedom |   Plan for Future
  Run Interference
  Fade into Background |

## PREVENTING GROUP THINK

- Impartial leadership (absence)
- Break up issues (sub-groups)
- Task members for critical evaluation
- External experts (outsiders)
- Devil’s advocate (assign)
- Second chance (revisit decision)

- Janis

## 12 ANGRY MEN

- A VIDEO CLIP ILLUSTRATING A DECISION PROCESS IN ANOTHER ENVIRONMENT.
- NOTE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ONE JUROR IN GETTING THE OTHERS TO AT LEAST TALK ABOUT THEIR DECISION.

## Slide 37

## Framing/Reframing

**The process of applying a frame of reference to**
**understand an issue or problem.**
**Issues:**
**	****Accuracy   -- *****Do knowledge, beliefs and***
***	******	******	****** ******assumptions correspond to the***
***	******	******	****** ******issue/problem?***
**	****Complexity-- *****Does the frame include most or***
***	******	******	****** ******all of the factors that must be ***
***	******	******	****** ******considered?***
***	*****Organization -- *****Are the factors functionally ***
***	******	******	****** ******integrated, i.e., a system?***

## 4 Frames

- Structural:
- “wiring diagram,” physical plant, and formal processes.
- Human Resources:
- peoples’ needs, energy, commitment, skills, and limitations.
- Political:
- competition for scarce resources and power to make decisions; winning!
- Symbolic:
- culture, fundamental assumptions and beliefs.

## Reframing

**What is our problem?**
**Who are the players and stakeholders?**
**What are their interests and goals -- their assumptions and beliefs?**
**What should we try to accomplish?**
**What are the feasible options?**
**What info do we need?**
**How do we get consensus for action?**
**What message do we send?**
**What are the pitfalls?**

## The Decision-maker Analyzes and Attends to:

*Goals, Facts, Tasks, Logic*
*Design and Organization*
*Responsibilities and Authority*

**Structural Frame**

## Structural Frame Assumptions

*Organizations exist to accomplish goals.*
*A structural form can be designed and implemented for any organization.*
*Organizations work most effectively when VUCA and personal preferences are constrained.*
*Specialization permits higher levels of expertise and performance.*
*Problems typically arise from inappropriate structures.*

## The Decision-maker Analyzes and Attends To:

*How to manage interest groups*
*How to build power bases and negotiation strategies*
*How to manage conflict*

**Political Frame**

## Political Frame Assumptions

*Organizations are coalitions.*
*There are enduring differences between groups.*
*Most important decisions involve scarce resources.*
*Conflict is central to organizational dynamics, and power is the most important resource.*
*Decisions emerge from negotiation.*

## The Decision-maker Analyzes and Attends To:

*The Alignment Between People and Organizational  Structure*
*Level To Which People Receive Support and Empowerment to Perform*
* **Communication and Conflict Resolution Processes*

**Human Resources Frame**

## Human Resource Frame Assumptions

*Organizations exist to serve human needs.*
*Organizations and people need each other.*
*When the fit between the individual and the organization is poor, one or both will suffer.*
*A good fit benefits both.*

## The Decision-maker Analyzes and Attends To:

***How to inspire groups, organizations and societies***
***How to integrate history, culture, and values to craft a vision***
***How people develop meaning from events ***
***How people attach importance to events***

**Symbolic Frame**

## Symbolic Frame Assumptions

*Faced with ambiguity, people create symbols.*
*The greater the ambiguity, the harder it is to use a rational approach. *
*Many significant events are ambiguous.*
*What is most important is what something means.*
*Events and meanings are loosely coupled.*

## Symbolic Frame Assumptions

*Faced with ambiguity, people create symbols.*
*The greater the ambiguity, the harder it is to use a rational approach. *
*Many significant events are ambiguous.*
*What is most important is what something means.*
*Events and meanings are loosely coupled.*