# Presentation: 926208

**State Level Analysis of Industrial Energy Use**

- Presented to the
- NREL Analysis Brown Bag
- October 10, 2002
- R. Neal Elliott
- Program Director, Industry Program
- The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
- Phone:(202) 429-8873
- rnelliott@aceee.org

## The American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) 

- Non-profit (501c (3)) dedicated to advancing energy efficiency through research and dissemination.
- 25 staffers in Washington DC, Delaware, Michigan and Wisconsin
- Industry, Buildings, Utilities, Transportation, and National Policy
- Conferences and Publications
- Funding:
- Foundation and Federal grants (50%)
- Specific Contract work (20%)
- Conferences and Publications (25%)

## Why this analysis?

- Renewed interest energy at the state & regional level
- New energy efficiency programs emerging
- State-level mix different from national
- Need to understand in-region industry mix
-  opportunities in high-grow sectors
- These analyses commissioned by regional programs - focus on electricity
- States analyzed:AZ, CO, NM, NY, NV, OR,  UT, WY

## National Electricity Use

- Available data limited
- Industrial Electricity use grows over the next decade
- Energy intensive industries dominate
- Intra-sectorial shifts appear modest
- Growth sectors: Ag, food, electronics, specialty chemicals
- Declining: primary metals and paper, transportation equipment

## U.S. Industrial Electricity Use by Subsector 1997 and 2020

## State Level Energy Use

- Very limited data available
- Industry mix different from national level
- Energy intensive industries concentrated in a few states
- Clear intra-sectorial shifts occurring
- Opportunities in growing sectors - limited efficiency opportunities in declining sectors

## Percent GDP Growth by Subsector 1997-2030

**Percent GDP Growth by Subsector 1997-2030**

- Source: Economy.com

## Industrial Electricity Use by Subsector 1997

**Industrial Electricity Use by Subsector 1997**

## Predicted Industrial Electricity Use by Subsector 2010

**Predicted Industrial Electricity Use by Subsector 2010**

## Arizona Predicted Electricity Use 2000-2030

**Arizona Predicted Electricity Use 2000-2030**

## Oregon Predicted Electricity Use 1997-2030

**Oregon Predicted Electricity Use 1997-2030**

## Analysis Approach

- Disaggregated state energy data not available
- Must use proxy of economic activity
- Need to be consistent in data sources
- Utility data problematic - inconsistent definitions
- Electricity easier than fuel - fuel switching complicates

## Methodology

- Determine state disaggregated value of shipments (1997)
- “Grow” economic activity for analysis period
- Apply energy intensity and autonomous trends
- Calibrate to state totals for know years

## Methodology

- Determine state disaggregated value of shipments (1997)
- “Grow” economic activity for analysis period
- Apply energy intensity and autonomous trends
- Calibrate to state totals for know years

## Available Data Sources

- Census: Economic Census (mining, construction and manufacturing) - value of shipments and state electricity
- USDA: Agricultural Census - value of shipments and state electricity
- EIA: MECS, SEPER, SEDR - energy intensity, price and energy mix by industry
- Economy.com - economic growth

## Conclusions

- Assuming the national level distribution of energy use at the state level is not an accurate portrayal of electricity use in the states.
- careful analysis of the states economic and energy use patterns must be completed to better predict state usage patterns in the future.