# Presentation: 341161

## Biomass for Electricity Generation in NEMS

- Zia Haq
- Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
- Energy Information AdministrationMarch 12, 2002

## Presentation Outline

- Introduction
- Present assumptions and methodology for the biomass forecast in NEMS
- Why are biomass supplies of concern?
- Modeling inputs and methodology for forecast
- Capital cost
- Supply schedules
- Conversion technology
- Forecasts - Reference case, high renewables case, 20% RPS case
- Conclusions

## Why Are Biomass Supplies of Concern?

- AEO2002 reference case:  adequate supplies to meet demand
- AEO2002 High renewables case:  demand higher due to increased supply assumptions
- 20% RPS study:  aggressive demand for biomass due to assumption of nationally mandated RPS provision, supply could be constraining
- Can biomass substitute for fossil fuels on a very large scale in environmental cases?
- Uncertainty of available quantities at high prices
- Price impacts of large-scale use of biomass

## Biomass Utilization in NEMS

## Modeling Assumptions and Methodology for Forecasts

- Capital costs
- Biomass supply schedule
- Transportation cost
- Biomass conversion technologies in NEMS
- Assumptions regarding carbon taxes, Production Tax Credit, Renewable Portfolio Standards

## Biomass* Capital Cost Assumptions in NEMS

| Attribute | Value |
| --- | --- |
| On-line year | 2005 |
| Unit size | 100 MW |
| Construction lead time | 4 years |
| Overnight cost (2000$) | $1,536/kW |
| Contingency factor | 1.07 |
| Technological optimism | 1.05 |
| Total cost – 2000 | $1,725/kW |
| Total cost – 2020 | $1,303/kW |

- *  Defined as biomass gasification and combined cycle

## Overnight Capital Costs and Capacity Factors in AEO2002

- Reference case, for new plants initiated in 2001

| Technology Type | Capital cost (2000$/kW) | Maximum capacity factor (%) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Conventional combustion turbine | 339 | 92 |
| Advanced combustion turbine | 474 | 92 |
| Generic distributed generation – peak | 559 | 5 |
| Generic distributed generation – base | 623 | 50 |
| Wind | 982 | 39 |
| Conventional pulverized coal | 1,119 | 85 |
| Integrated gasification combined cycle (coal) | 1,338 | 85 |
| MSW/Landfill gas | 1,429 | 90 |
| Biomass gasification combined cycle | 1,725 | 80 |
| Geothermal | 1,746 | 95 |
| Fuel cells | 2,091 | 87 |
| Advanced nuclear | 2,144 | 90 |
| Solar thermal | 2,539 | 42 |
| Photovoltaic (central station) | 3,831 | 30 |

## Supply Schedule Components

-   Urban wood waste and mill residues: mill residues, urban wood waste, and construction and demolition debris
-   Agricultural residue:  wheat straw and corn stover
-   Energy crops:  switchgrass, hybrid poplar, and willow(available from 2010)

## Biomass Supply Schedule, 2020

**Quantity (Trillion Btu)**

**Price (2000$/MMBtu)**

## Transportation Cost

-   Urban wood waste and mill residues transportation cost:  $0.24/ton-mile, maximum supply distance 100 mile radius
-   Forest residues, agricultural residues, energy crops transportation cost:  $10/ton, maximum supply distance 50 mile radius
-   No biomass is transported across EMM regions
-   In future, capability to transport biomass across regions could be included for sensitivity cases

## Conversion Technologies

- Dedicated biomass: biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) - Hot gas filtration is assumed
- Biomass co-firing with coal
- Up to 5% on heat-input basis allowed depending on resource availability
- No capital cost or O&M cost penalty
- Retrofit existing coal plants
- Modification planned to allow more biomass for additional capital and O&M costs
- Industrial cogeneration

## Capacity History and Forecasts (GW)

- *  Dedicated biomass only, no biomass cofiring
- **  Includes electric generators and cogenerators
- AEO2002 reference case: aeo2002.d102301a, AEO2002 high renewables case: hirenew02.d102300a, 20% RPS: rps20.d011702b

| Sector | 2000 | 2020 |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  | AEO2002 Reference Case | AEO2002 High Renewables case | 20% RPS case |
| Electric generators* | 1.39 | 1.97 | 2.09 | 61.41 |
| Industrial cogenerators | 5.26 | 8.43 | 10.21 | 8.44 |
| Biomass capacity | 6.65 | 10.40 | 12.30 | 69.85 |
| Total installed capacity** | 808 | 1,136 | 1,147 | 1,205 |

## Generation History and Forecasts (Billion kWh)

| Sector | 2000 | 2020 |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  | AEO2002 Reference Case | AEO2002 High Renewables Case | 20% RPS Case |
| Dedicated biomass | 7.46 | 11.25 | 12.09 | 408.1 |
| Biomass cofiring | 0.91 | 4.07 | 3.97 | 67.69 |
| Electric generators* | 8.37 | 15.32 | 16.06 | 475.8 |
| Industrial cogeneration | 29.63 | 48.99 | 59.92 | 49.06 |
| Biomass generation** | 38.00 | 64.31 | 75.98 | 524.9 |
| Total generation*** | 3,841 | 5,471 | 5,474 | 5,434 |

- *  Electric generators = Dedicated biomass + biomass cofiring
- **  Biomass generation = Electric generators + industrial cogeneration
- ***  Includes electric generators and cogenerators
- AEO2002 reference case: aeo2002.d102301a, AEO2002 high renewables case: hirenew02.d102300a, 20% RPS: rps20.d011702b

## Consumption Forecast by Sector,AEO2002 Reference Case

- Consumption Forecast by Sector,AEO2002 Reference Case

**Consumption (Quads)**

- AEO2002 reference case: aeo2002.d102301a

## Consumption Under Different Scenarios

|  | Biomass consumption, 2020 (Quads) | Maximum available biomass* (Quads) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| AEO2002 reference case | 3.48 | 8.28 |
| AEO2002 high renewables case | 4.13 | 9.10 |
| 20% RPS case | 7.67 | 8.28 |

- *  At greater than $7/MMBtu (2000$)
- Biomass consumption = Dedicated biomass + cofiring + industrial cogeneration + cellulosic ethanol
- AEO2002 reference case: aeo2002.d102301a, AEO2002 high renewables case: hirenew02.d102300a, 20% RPS: rps20.d011702b

## Supply Curve Uncertainties

- Competing uses of biomass – mulch market
- Agricultural waste: Impact of biomass removal on soil quality
- Forestry residues: Impact of changes in fire prevention policies
- Urban wood waste/mill residues: Impact of increasing quantities of recycling
- Energy crops: Competing uses of land (commodity crops versus energy crops)

## Conclusions

- Maximum of 590 million (wet) tons of biomass available in 2020
- AEO2002 reference case capacity grows from 6.6 GW in 2000 to 10.4 GW by 2020
- AEO2002 high renewables case capacity grows to 12.3 GW by 2020
- 20% RPS case capacity grows to 69.8 GW by 2020