# Presentation: 463217

## American Community Survey:  Program Update and Planning for Multiyear Estimates

- Presented at the CIC/FSCPE/SDC Meeting
- New Orleans, Louisiana
- April 16, 2008

- Susan Schechter
- Cynthia Hollingsworth
- U.S. Census Bureau

## Areas of Emphasis in 2008

- Continue careful management of resources
- Submit to Congress the planned questions for 2010 Census and ACS
- Implement new questionnaire in 2008
- Finalize 2009 questionnaire changes
- Release both 1- and 3-year estimates
- Increase focus on data users needs

## Management of ACS Resources

- Status : On track
- FY08 budget includes full funding for conducting the ACS in the U.S. and Puerto Rico
- FY08 Methods Panel was not funded;
- 	Focus on critical research priorities continue
- FY09 budget request includes full funding for ACS including Methods Panel

## FY08 Budget Update

- Impact of not receiving Methods Panel funding
- Canceled test of multi-lingual brochure
- Canceled test of additional mailing during CATI
- Canceled all planning activities
- Additional budget reduction
- Reduced Failed-Edit Follow Up operation
- Canceled cognitive testing of translation of CATI and CAPI letters

## ACS Research and Evaluation

- Estimation
- Data quality
- Data usability
- Review and analysis of operations

## Submission of 2010 and ACS Questions to Congress

- Status:  Completed
- Required by law two years prior to conducting the decennial census
- Submission to Congress includes examples of questions and brief narrative description of uses

## Implementation of New 2008 ACS Questionnaire

- Status:  Completed
- Obtaining CATI and CAPI interviewer feedback on new instrument

## 2009 ACS Questionnaire

- Status:  Partially complete
- First Federal Register Notice (comment period ends April 28, 2008)
- Add open-ended Field of Degree question
- Restore duration of vacancy question to CAPI operation
- Target date for OMB approval: July 2008

## Planning for Multiyear EstimatesOverview

- Background of 2006 ACS Data
- What we will release in 2008
- Proposed data release schedule
- Organization of ACS data in AFF
- User education and training

## Background2006 ACS Data

- Released in August – September 2007
- Included the population in housing units and in group quarters
- Included single-year estimates for calendar year 2006

## Background2006 ACS Data

- Wide range of products released for geographic areas with populations of 65,000 and greater
- State-level tables released for population living in group quarters

**Notes:**
Products released for areas with populations of 65,000 and greater – all states, Puerto Rico, DC, all Congressional Districts, large counties, places, cities, school districts...

Included profiles, tables, maps, geographic comparison products, summary files, PUMS
To meet data reliability standards 2006 ACS detailed tables published in two formats

## Background2006 ACS Data

- Data release rules applied at the table-level
- Based on the reliability of the estimates in each table, decisions made on releasing full detail or collapsed detail

**Notes:**
Products released for areas with populations of 65,000 and greater – all states, Puerto Rico, DC, all Congressional Districts, large counties, places, cities, school districts...

NOTE – if area qualified for full, also got collapsed
To meet data reliability standards 2006 ACS detailed tables published in two formats

## Background2006 ACS Data

- Data released on American FactFinder as tables, files, maps, and public use microdata files
- User guide, guidance on comparisons, and other resources released on the ACS website

**Notes:**
To meet data reliability standards 2006 ACS detailed tables published in two formats

## BackgroundMultiyear Estimates Study

- Study completed in 2007 to dress rehearse methods for production of multiyear estimates
- Analysis of multiyear estimates data completed in 2008

**Notes:**
MYES included both internal and external analyses;  some work continues

## What We Will Release in 2008

- First release of 3-year estimates for areas with populations of 20,000 and greater
- 3-year estimates are based on data collected from housing unit population in 2005, 2006 and 2007; group quarters population in 2006 and 2007

**Notes:**
2 years of GQ data will be weighted up to 3-year period

## What We Will Release in 2008

- First release of 2 sets of ACS estimates for areas with populations of 65,000 and greater
- 1-year estimates for 2007
- 3-year estimates for 2005 - 2007

## What We Will Release in 2008

- The types of geographic areas that will  receive 3-year estimates are essentially the same as those receiving 1-year estimates
- Many more specific areas will now qualify

**Notes:**
Next 2 tables demonstrate this

## Slide 18

| Table 1.  Distribution of Type of Estimate by 
Type of Geographic Area |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 
Type of 
Geographic Area | 
Total Number of Areas
 | Percent of Total Areas Receiving |  |
|  |  | 1-year & 
3-year estimates | 3-year estimates
only |
| States and District of Columbia | 51 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Congressional Districts | 436 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Public Use Microdata Areas | 2,071 | 99.8 | 0.1 |
| Metropolitan & Micropolitan Statistical Areas | 938 | 53.2 | 44.1 |
| Urban Areas | 3,607 | 10.5 | 12.9 |

**Notes:**
A few observations –
All states, Congressional districts and most PUMAs will receive BOTH 1-year and 3-year estimates
Nearly all metro/micropolitan statistical areas will receive 3-year estimates (about half will also get 1-year estimates)
Most urban areas will still not receive ACS estimates – a few more receive 3-year estimates but most still have to wait for 5-year data

## Slide 19

| Table 2.  Distribution of Type of Estimate by 
Type of Geographic Area |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 
Type of 
Geographic Area | 
Total Number of Areas | Percent of Total Areas Receiving |  |
|  |  | 1-year & 3-year estimates | 3-year estimates only |
| Counties and county equivalents | 3,141 | 24.9 | 33.0 |
| School Districts | 14,120 | 6.5 | 16.9 |
| American Indian Areas, Alaska Native Areas, Hawaiian Home Lands | 603 | 2.3 | 4.1 |
| Cities, towns and census-designated places | 25,056 | 2.0 | 6.2 |
| Townships and villages | 21,194 | 0.1 | 3.8 |

**Notes:**
Here you see that 
more than half of all counties will receive ACS data this year – about half receiving 1-year data too
Most school districts, American Indian areas, Alaska Native areas, Hawaiian homelands, cities, towns, townships and villages will NOT receive ACS data – only a small additional proportion will receive 3-year estimates this year

## What We Will Release in 2008

- First release of ACS data for many  mid-sized counties, metropolitan & micropolitan statistical areas
- Multiple data sets for states, Congressional Districts, PUMAs, large counties and metropolitan & micropolitan statistical areas

## What We Will Release in 2008

- Most data products identical to last year’s data release
- Data profiles will add estimates in percent format

## What We Will Release in 2008

- Selected Population Profiles expanded to include iterations by country of birth
- Comparison Profile returns
- comparing 2007 ACS with 2006 ACS
- includes flags identifying statistical testing results

**Notes:**
Comparison profile covers a subset of ACS data profile content

## Draft Example of Comparison Profile

**Draft Example of Comparison Profile**

## What We Will Release in 2008

- Finalizing plans to release 2 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files
- 2007 ACS PUMS
- 2005 - 2007 ACS PUMS

## Data Release Schedule in 2008

- 1-Year Estimates
- August 2008 release of 2007 ACS estimates on income, earnings, and poverty
- September 2008 release of 2007 ACS estimates on all other topics

**Notes:**
Includes release of all 1-year products – detailed tables, profiles, comparison profiles, SPPs, subject tables, GQ tables, maps, comparisons, summary files & PUMS

## Data Release Schedule in 2008

- 3-Year Estimates
- December 2008 release of 2005-2007 ACS estimates on all topics

**Notes:**
Includes release of all 3-year products – detailed tables, profiles, SPPs, subject tables, GQ tables, maps, comparisons, summary files & PUMS

## Organization of ACS Data in American FactFinder

- 3-year estimates will be in unique data sets separate from the 1-year estimates
- Selecting tables through the Data Sets page will be similar to 2006 ACS data:
- Data Sets   Geography  Table

**Notes:**
Selection sequence from the Data Sets page (expert path) is the same for the multiyear estimates as for the current ACS tables.

The following slide shows the AFF Data Sets page as it might appear in November 2008 after the release of the 3-Year Estimate

.

## Draft Example of Data Sets Page

**Notes:**
Following the current pattern of the AFF display for the Decennial data and the ACS data,  the 

Multiyear products will be in unique data sets separate from the 1-Year Period Estimates for the same year.

Here you can see the Data Sets page as it might appear after the release of the 3-Year Period Estimates, showing both the 1-Year Period Estimates and the 3-Year Period Estimates.

The user can choose between the data sets, 
choose the table format, such as Detailed Tables, then 
select the geography and table

How does the user find the geography of interest?
[Sample Select Geography page follows]

NOTE – the terminology/labels/text are draft only

## Draft Example of Geography Page 

**Notes:**
How does the user find the geography of interest?

After choosing the type of table, perhaps Detailed Tables, 

As is currently the case in AFF, only the geographic areas for which data are available in the data set will appear for selection.

Here the user has chosen California counties, all that are available...are listed.

Next slide shows a Detailed table from 2006 ...

## Draft Example of a Detailed Table

**Notes:**
 This is a 2006 Detailed Table showing the Data Set name at the top of the table, under the title. 

The data set is always identified with the table.  This is what we mean by a DATA SET!

## Organization of ACS Data in American FactFinder

- Important to clearly distinguish the      1-year and 3-year data products through effective labeling and clear terminology
- Important to highlight assistance links

**Notes:**
Once the 3-Year Period Estimates are out ---
Let’s look at the Data Sets page to see some options for informing the users about
the 1-Year and 3-Year Period Estimates.

## Example of Data Sets Page - Labels

**Example of Data Sets Page - Labels**

**Notes:**
Following the current pattern of the AFF display for the Decennial data and the ACS data,  the 

Multiyear products will be in unique data sets separate from the 1-Year Period Estimates for the same year.

Here you can see the Data Sets page as it might appear after the release of the 3-Year Period Estimates, showing both the 1-Year Period Estimates and the 3-Year Period Estimates.

The user can choose between the data sets, 
choose the table format, such as Detailed Tables, then 
select the geography and table

How does the user find the geography of interest?
[Sample Select Geography page follows]

## Example of Data Sets Page - Links

**Notes:**
This is a draft of the Data Sets page in November 2008 –

On this page we have three (3) ways to explain the differences:
Titles of the data sets: 
The example here with this title, “2005-2007 ACS 3-Year Period Estimates”  is one possible label for these data sets
The text below the data set title
 offers some wording, including reference to the geographic coverage, to help users understand more readily the distinction between the data sets.

3. Link to “Explain the 1-Year and 3-Year Period Estimates” (NEXT SLIDE)
	provides opportunity for more detailed explanation and guidance, e.g.,      
3-year may be more accurate, 1-year more recent
1-year only goes to larger areas .65k (8,000)
3-year goes to areas >20k (21,000

Compare the data set names and description – labeling to make the differences in geographic coverage more prominent?]

## Organization of ACS Data in American FactFinder

- Decision to direct both novice and expert users to specific data sets as defaults
- Users can select other data sets

**Notes:**
Only in November, when the 3-Year Period Estimates are out, does this issue arise.

[next slide is the Nov. AFF Main Page directing user to SAFF.]

## Data Sets Page

**Notes:**
In contrast to the slides for the novices ---
The expert users  will be able to choose whichever data set they prefer,  choose the table format, then select the geography and table.
If they make no further selection, the default selection will be the 2005-2007 3-Year  Estimates.

Again  you can see the Data Sets page as it might appear after the release of the 3-Year Period Estimates, showing both the 1-Year Period Estimates and the 3-Year Period Estimates.
The “Explain 1-Year and 3-Year Period Estimates” link will be available to help users choose the most appropriate data set for their task.

The default data set is the one with the broadest geographic coverage, the 3-Year Period Estimates.  In 2010 the 5-Year Period Estimates data set will be the default.  
(Analogy of SF1 default with broadest geo coverage.).

[This follows the current pattern of the AFF display for the Decennial data and the ACS data]

## User Education and Training

- Currently producing a series of handbooks on “Understanding and Using ACS Data”
- Also developing on-line training materials based on these handbooks
- Planned Release
- August 2008
- PDF format via ACS web site

**Notes:**
Tailored to 10 specific audiences
Will be released on line as PDFs

## User Education and TrainingTarget Audiences

-   Congressional Staff
-   High School Teachers
-   State & Local Governments
-   Federal Agencies
-   Rural Areas, including 	Tribal and Small Local 	Governments

-   University Researchers
-   Media
-   Basic Users
-   PUMS Users
-   Business Community

**Notes:**
Tailored to 10 specific audiences
Will be released on line as PDFs

## User Education and Training

- Currently updating the ACS website and AFF with additional user resources and guidance on use of single year versus multiyear estimates
- Planning “Train the Trainer” workshops for a variety of users (regional offices, SDCs, etc)