# Presentation: 113848

## WARNING MESSAGES AND EVACUATION

- Hugh Gladwin

## Warning messages work when they warn people who then are able to take appropriate action given the constraints of their situation

## HURRICANE IVAN 
BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS 
Prepared by Dewberry and Davis, LLC 
for the Federal Emergency Management Agency 
and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 
Wilmington and Mobile Districts 
July 2005 

**BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS **
**Prepared by Dewberry and Davis, LLC **
**for the Federal Emergency Management Agency **
**and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, **
**Wilmington and Mobile Districts **
**July 2005 **

## Slide 4

## Slide 5

## Slide 6

## Slide 7

## Slide 8

## Intensification before landfall over day and night hours with four fairly well behaved hurricanes in terms of track forecast

- Katrina
- Andrew
- Opal
- Floyd

## KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS

- Boxes = night

- KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS

- Sunday
- Aug 28

- Saturday
- Aug 27

- Friday
- Aug 26

- Katrina #13 10am CDT Friday
- 6 kt forward speed cat 2
- tropical storm force winds Florida Panhandle Monday 8am
- cat 2 eye landfall Monday 11 am

## Katrina #13 10am CDT Friday

- 6 kt forward speed cat 2
- tropical storm force winds Florida Panhandle Monday 8am
- cat 2 eye landfall Monday 11 am

## KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS

- Boxes = night

- KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS

- Sunday
- Aug 28

- Saturday
- Aug 27

- Friday
- Aug 26

- Katrina #14 4pm CDT Friday
- 7 kt forward speed cat 2
- tropical storm force winds Monday 8am
- cat 3-4 eye landfall Monday pm

## Katrina #14 4pm CDT Friday

- 7 kt forward speed cat 2
- tropical storm force winds Monday 8am
- cat 3-4 eye landfall Monday pm

## KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS

- Boxes = night

- KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS

- Sunday
- Aug 28

- Saturday
- Aug 27

- Friday
- Aug 26

- Katrina #17 10am CDT Saturday
- 6 kt forward speed cat 3
- tropical storm force winds Monday 3am
- cat 4 eye landfall Monday 10 am

## Katrina #17 10am CDT Saturday

- 6 kt forward speed cat 3
- tropical storm force winds Monday 3am
- cat 4 eye landfall Monday 10 am

## KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS

- Boxes = night

- KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS

- Sunday
- Aug 28

- Saturday
- Aug 27

- Friday
- Aug 26

- Katrina #22 7am CDT Sunday
- 10 kt forward speed cat 5
- tropical storm force winds Sunday 10pm
- cat 4 eye over New Orleans Monday 11 am

## Katrina #22 7am CDT Sunday

- 10 kt forward speed cat 5
- tropical storm force winds Sunday 10pm
- cat 4 eye over New Orleans Monday 11 am

## KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS

- Boxes = night

- KATRINA to landfall in LA/MS

- Sunday
- Aug 28

- Saturday
- Aug 27

- Friday
- Aug 26

- Katrina #22 7am CDT Sunday
- 10 kt forward speed cat 5
- tropical storm force winds Sunday 10pm
- cat 4 eye over New Orleans Monday 11 am

## ANDREW

- Boxes = night

- ANDREW

## OPAL

- Boxes = night

- OPAL

- Monday
- August 2
- 1995

- Tuesday
- August 3
- 1995

- Wednesday
- August 4
- 1995

- Opal #21 4pm CDT Monday
- 5 kt forward speed cat 1
- tropical storm force winds Thursday 5 am
- cat 2 eye landfall Thursday 2 pm

## Opal #21 4pm CDT Monday 

- Opal #21 4pm CDT Monday
- 5 kt forward speed cat 1
- tropical storm force winds Thursday 5 am
- cat 2 eye landfall Thursday 2 pm

## OPAL

- Boxes = night

- OPAL

- Monday
- August 2
- 1995

- Tuesday
- August 3
- 1995

- Wednesday
- August 4
- 1995

- Opal #24 10 am CDT Tuesday
- 8 kt forward speed cat 1
- tropical storm force winds Wednesday 10 pm
- cat 1 eye landfall Thursday 5 am

## Opal #24 10 am CDT Tuesday 

- Opal #24 10 am CDT Tuesday
- 8 kt forward speed cat 1
- tropical storm force winds Wednesday 10 pm
- cat 1 eye landfall Thursday 5 am

## OPAL

- Boxes = night

- OPAL

- Monday
- August 2
- 1995

- Tuesday
- August 3
- 1995

- Wednesday
- August 4
- 1995

- Opal #26 10pm CDT Tuesday
- 20 kt forward speed cat 3
- tropical storm force winds Wednesday 10 am
- cat 3 eye landfall Wednesday 6 pm

## Opal #26 10pm CDT Tuesday

- 20 kt forward speed cat 3
- tropical storm force winds Wednesday 10 am
- cat 3 eye landfall Wednesday 6 pm

## OPAL

- Boxes = night

- OPAL

- Monday
- August 2
- 1995

- Tuesday
- August 3
- 1995

- Wednesday
- August 4
- 1995

- Opal #27 4am CDT Wednesday
- 17 kt forward speed cat 3
- tropical storm force winds Thursday 11 am
- cat 3 eye landfall Thursday 8 pm

## FLOYD

- Boxes = night

- FLOYD

## WARNING MESSAGES AND EVACUATION

- Hugh Gladwin