# Presentation: 115803

## Harold McFarlane
Deputy Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Programs
& former high school physics student

- Deputy Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Programs
*& former high school physics student*

***Everything You Didn’t Know about Nuclear Energy in 15 Minutes or Less***
** ****Idaho Falls**
**15 July 2007**

**Notes:**
I first prepared a talk on this subject for the ANS Student Section of the University of Wisconsin during their tour of Fermilab on Earth Day 2006. This is a composite of several presentations for different audiences during the last year. “Greening” in this context refers to the growing recognition of just how eco-friendly nuclear is today as well as the improvements that need to be made in the nuclear fuel cycle in order to achieve sustainability and waste minimization.

## DESPERATE ENERGY NEED

**DESPERATE ENERGY NEED**

**ACCELERATING GROWTH**

**ONGOING DEMAND**

## Energy supply choices today will affect future generations

- Kenn Brown

- INL is an energy laboratory

**Notes:**
Two different views of our energy future.

## USA’s wakeup call

**USA’s wakeup call**

***Our growing concerns***

**Notes:**
With the turn of the century, Americans started to become more concerned about energy and more aware of just how much energy we import. When the price of oil jumped above $60/barrel, gasoline prices experienced a considerable spike and shocked many Americans. More recently, the general public, business and government leaders have begun to accept that climate change is something to be concerned about.

## US highly dependent on energy imports

- US Energy Consumption 2001

**Notes:**
Most of our energy comes from oil, and most of that is imported.

## Nuclear electricity kept pace with demand

**112 plants**

**103**
**plants**

**787 billion**
**kWh in 2006**

**Notes:**
Since 1990 the number of US nuclear plants has shrunk for 112 to 104. Electrical demand grew by more than 30%, yet nuclear generation maintained its 20% share.

## Nuclear power’s performance in US 

**Nuclear power’s performance in US**** **

*Source:  Energy Information Administration/Nuclear Regulatory Commission*

**Fleet average consistently at 89%**
**Best operations have 95% CF**

## The world is rediscovering nuclear energy

- Security

**Notes:**
In North America, Canada, the USA and even Mexico have announced intentions to build new nuclear power plants after a long hiatus. In South America, both Argentina and Brazil are implementing plans to resume construction of partially completed power plants. Chile has announced its intention to consider nuclear as a part of its energy portfolio. Russia, China and India are continuing their ambitious nuclear plans. Even the mature economies of Western Europe and Japan plan to continue to adding nuclear capacity. South Africa has announced intentions to add some two dozen or more new nuclear plants. In North Africa, Morocco is opening its first research reactor and Egypt is considering nuclear power. Several middle eastern countries have begun the initial planning activities. Countries that have never previously considered nuclear, such as Australia, Turkey, Indonesia, and Viet Nam, have announced that nuclear is now under consideration.

## Sources of emission free electricity

- * Preliminary
- Source: Global Energy Decisions / Energy Information Administration
- Updated: 4/07

**Sources of emission free electricity**

- 680 Million tons of CO2 emissions avoided by nuclear generation in 2006

## Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions

- Source: IAEA 2006

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

**Storage**

**Carbon capture and storage**

**Natural gas**

**Oil**

**Coal**

## The energy mix, and the contribution to greenhouse effect

*(source AIE, 2006)*

- Environment

- Courtesy of CEA

**Notes:**
The figure shows that CO2 emissions are tightly correlated to the share of renewable and nuclear in the energy mix. Hydroelectric provides the vast majority of the contribution from renewables.

## How many soccer fields needed to stack all that nuclear waste? 50,000 tons of used fuel; 2000 t/a

**Notes:**
Without context, the 50,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel that has been generated by nuclear electricity production since the 1960’s sounds to many people like a huge amount of high level waste. But uranium is dense, and a typical PWR fuel assembly weighs some 500 kg. If they could be stacked edge to edge on a football field, the wave front of spent fuel would advance about 80 yards. The 2000 tonnes that is generated ever year would move the front forward about three yards. This amount of waste is rather easily stored until a permanent solution is available.

## Nuclear Economics Today: Most Competitive Production Costs

**Nuclear Economics Today: ****Most Competitive Production Costs**

**$5**

**$76**

**2005 $/MWh for Fuel and O&M**

**Source: Nuclear Energy Institute**

**$81**

**$22**

**Coal**

**Gas**

**Oil**

**$4**

**$5**

**$17**

**$71**

**$74**

**$7**

**$5**

**$13**

**$17**

**Nuclear**

**Notes:**
Nuclear plants are producing electricity at less cost than any means except for some established hydroelectric capacity.

## Money matters

**3 GWe plant @ $2500/kW**

- Source: Forbes

**Notes:**
The capital costs of a new nuclear plant range from $1500/kW to $5000/kW. A two-unit, 3 gigawatt plant could cost as much as a substantial fraction of the total capitalization of a utility. Here we have plotted the total capitalization of several utilities compared to the costs of a 3 GWe at a modest price of $2500/kW. Obviously, this will be a big decision and not all of the 33 units proposed to the NRC will be built.

## Nuclear nonproliferation a surprising success in spite of daily concerns 

- 1 out of 10 US light bulbs were powered by uranium from a former Soviet warhead in 2005
- 6 trillion kW-hr
- $12 billion cost
- Cost equivalent energy:
- $600 billion in oil
- $420 billion in gas
- $43 billion in coal
- Energy equivalent:
- 10 billion barrels of oil
- 60 trillion cf natural gas
- 3 billion tons of coal

***...******atoms for peace.******2005 Nobel Peace Prize***

**Notes:**
When the Atoms for Peace program was launched in 1953, President Eisenhower and his advisors thought that nuclear weapons capability would spread very quickly, with perhaps as many as 25 having the capability with a decade or two. The IAEA was established and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty was signed by all but a handful of countries. In spite of the daily headlines about Iran and North Korea, nonproliferation has been a success and was recognized in 2005 when the IAEA and its Director Dr. Mohammed ElBaradei were awarded a Nobel Peace Prize.

## US nuclear energy continues to be safe

**U.S. Nuclear**

**Accidents per 200,000 worker-hours**

**U.S. Manufacturing**

**U.S. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate**

**OSHA Accident Rates**

- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, NEI

**US nuclear energy continues to be safe**

**Notes:**
Although nuclear energy is considered to be potentially dangerous by a significant fraction of the population, no civilian has ever died as a result of a nuclear power accident or nuclear power operations in the United States. As far as industrial accidents, the nuclear industry is an order of magnitude than US manufacturing in general.

## Trends in nuclear engineering enrollment

- ($ in Millions)

- Number of Students

**Trends in nuclear engineering enrollment**

- HBCU/HSI
- Student
- Enrollment

- 70

- 1,831

- DOE
- Investment

- US DOE August 2006

**Notes:**
Early in the Clinton administration, President Clinton announced in his State of the Union speech that they intended to treat nuclear energy with benign neglect, i.e. they intended to phase out federal investment in advancing the technology. By 1998 this objective had been achieved, when the official nuclear energy R&D budget hit zero. Student enrollment in nuclear engineering education fell during this time, with few students opting to enter a dying field. However, the policy shifted to allow some R&D and some investment in nuclear science and engineering education. By the turn of the century, many political leaders had recognized the current importance of nuclear to clean air policies and energy independence. Undergraduate enrollments began to climb back to healthy levels. A lot of this had to do with market pull, with nuclear engineering graduates commanding substantial starting salaries and some signing bonuses.

## Public Opinion

***BB EU Nuclear Status GLOBAL October 2005***

**Public Opinion**

**Notes:**
Contrary to popular lore, at 2/3 approval, the US public’s opinion about nuclear is more favorable than any country  in Europe. Opinion is overwhelmingly favorable (86%) within 15 miles of miles of an existing plant. The more highly educated a person is, the more likely he or she is to favor nuclear energy.

## 50,000 t ore (0.32%)

- 160 t U

- 140 t U tails

- 20 t 4% enriched U

- 20 t 4% enriched U

- 20 t spent fuel

- 0.2 t plutonium

- 0.9 t waste in ~5 t glass;
- 6 t radioactive hardware

- 18.9 t uranium

- 20 t spent fuel

- Modified from WNA

- 1000 MWe

**Notes:**
I think that I may have taken this fuel cycle cartoon off the WNA web site, but at any rate I have modified the quantities to approximate numbers for the higher burnup fuel. The main thing that I want you to take away from this is that we mine 50,000 tons of uranium ore for 1/3 of a typical core loading and we use only slightly more than a ton of uranium. This is clearly not sustainable. An advanced fuel cycle that makes better use of resources is clearly needed if nuclear energy is going to make a substantial contribution to humankind’s energy needs over the next several centuries.

## DOE is developing a license application for a nuclear repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

**DOE is developing a license application for a nuclear repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada**

**Notes:**
Yucca Mountain is proceeding with preparation of a license application. Senator Reed will see that the repository does not operate as intended as long as he is in power.

## Slide 21

**Notes:**
Most Americans are not aware that the USA is already operating a deep geologic repository near Carlsbad, New Mexico. The WIPP repository is receiving and storing the plutonium contaminated waste from the Cold War production of nuclear weapons.

## Energy Policy Act of 2005

- Nuclear

- New Plant
- Construction

- R&D

**Loan guarantees**
**Risk assurance**
**Production tax credit**
**Price-Anderson**
**Decommissioning funds**

**Next generation nuclear plant**
**Nuclear hydrogen production**
**Advanced fuel cycle initiative**
**Nuclear engineering program**
**Medical isotopes**

- 7639-8/06-

**Notes:**
EPACT 2005 had provisions for new plant construction as well as R&D for advanced nuclear technology, signaling an end to the nuclear eclipse in the US.

## Designs competing for US market: Generation III & III+

- Passive or redundant systems to enhance safety
- Easier to protect from terrorist attacks

**Designs competing for US market: *****Generation III & III******+***

**Gen-III**

- ESBWR

***ABWR***

- EPR

**Gen-III+**

- AP-1000

***US APWR***

**Notes:**
The new standardized reactor designs competing for the US market are in a technology class called light water reactors, which make up about 80% of the global nuclear capacity. All operating US LWRs are second generation. Third generation plants have been built in Asia, some constructed in only 4-5 years. There is an even new generation called Gen-III+ that uses a design philosophy that takes advantage of natural features to ensure safety. GE and Westinghouse both offer Gen-III and Gen-III+ designs. The French conglomerate AREVA is offering a Gen-III design with its EPR. Mitsubishi has entered the fray with a large Gen-III advanced pressurized water reactor. The Westinghouse AP-1000 and the GE ABWR have been certified by the NRC. Other design certifications may not be completed until post-2008.

## U.S. nuclear industry—first movers for new build33 notifications to Nuclear Regulatory Commission

**Constellation**Calvert Cliffs

**Southern**Vogtle

**Southern**Hatch

**Dominion**North Anna

**TVA**
- Bellefonte

**Entergy**Grand Gulf

**Entergy**River Bend

**Progress Energy**Florida Plant

**Progress Energy**
- Harris

**SCE&G**
- V.C. Summer

**Constellation**Nine Mile

**Duke **Carolina Plant

**NRG**South Texas

**Amarillo Power**Amarillo

**TXU**Multiple

**Exelon**Texas

**AEH**
- Idaho

**Notes:**
At last count, the NRC had been notified by about 15 organizations that they were interested in building some 33 new nuclear power plants in the US. The proposals are generally for existing sites. There are currently 104 operating nuclear plants in the US.

## National policies on spent fuel

- 0

- 500

- 1 000

- 1 500

- 2 000

- 2 500

**SWEDEN **
** ****FINLAND**

**DIRECT DISPOSAL**

**FRANCE**

**U K**

**JAPAN**

**REPROCESSING- RECYCLING**

**CHINA**

**RUSSIA**

**SWIZERLAND**

**GERMANY**

**BELGIUM**

**Eastern Europe**

**SPAIN**

**ASIA**

**INTERIM SOLUTIONS**

**OTHERS**

- Annual discharge of spent fuel (metric tons)

- Courtesy Areva

**Notes:**
Countries have been relatively evenly split on policies of direct disposal of fuel vs. reprocessing. Anticipating a global surge in nuclear, the US is moving toward a reprocessing policy.

## Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP)

- A plan for nuclear sustainability

- Source: www.gnep.energy.gov

***The change in US policy is driven by the expectation of rapid global expansion of nuclear energy.***

**Notes:**
A very complete nuclear initiative has been proposed by the Bush Administration. The intent of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership is to establish a robust nonproliferation regime while allowing the world to enjoy the benefits of nuclear energy.

## USA’s Nuclear Vision?

- Outstanding performance
- License extensions
- Power uprates
- Climate change
- Energy security

- New LWR plants
- Geologic repository
- Reliable trading partner
- Revitalized infrastructure

- Technology leadership
- Gen-IV reactors
- Waste minimization

- We are here

## Thank you for your participation

**Thank you for your participation**

- And remember, nuclear power works just fine at night!