# Presentation: 679117

##  Brian McInerneyHydrologistNational Weather ServiceHydrologic OutlookMay 2006

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Temperature

## March Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 0.1 degrees cooler than average

- March 1983

- 1.0 degrees warmer than average

- March 2006

## April Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 3.3 degrees cooler than average

- April 1983

- 3.5 degrees warmer than average

- April 2006

## Western US Temperature Departure from Normal

- April 2005

- April 2006

## Western US Temperature Departure from Normal

- October, 2005  - May 2nd, 2006

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Precipitation

## Precipitation

## Utah and neighboring statesSeasonal Precipitation 2006 Water Year

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Snowpack

## Bear River Basin SnowpackCompared to 2005

## Weber River Basin SnowpackCompared to 2005

## Provo River Basin SnowpackCompared to 2005

## Duchesne River Basin SnowpackCompared to 2005

## Sevier River Basin SnowpackCompared to 2005

## Virgin River Basin SnowpackCompared to 2005

## Logan River Basin SnowpackCompared to 1982 

**Highest previous year - 1982**

## City Creek River Basin SnowpackCompared to 1997 

**Highest previous year since 1989**

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Water Supply

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes

- Much Above Normal
- Above Normal
- Normal
- Below Normal
- Much Below Normal

- May 1st 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
- Utah Area River Basins

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Bear River Basin**

- Logan

- 127%

- Bear River

- Bear Lake

- Woodruff

- 94%

- Ut/Wy
- Stateline

- 104%

- Blacksmith Fork

- Hyrum

- 133%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Weber River Basin**

- Pineview Res.

- 147%

- Gateway

- 121%

- East Canyon Res.

- 177%

- Ogden River

- Lost Creek Res.

- 119%

- Weber River

- Chalk Creek

- 104%

- Oakley

- 107%

- Rockport Res.

- 110%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Six Creeks River Basin**

- Jordan River

- Little Cottonwood Creek

- 138%

- Big Cottonwood Creek

- 126%

- Mill Creek

- 136%

- Parleys Creek

- 138%

- Dell Fk.

- 156%

- City Creek

- 149%

- Emigration Ck.

- 138%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Provo River Basin**

- Utah Lake

- Woodland

- 117%

- Jordanelle Res

- 118%

- Deer Creek Res

- 112%

- American Fork

- 128%

- Castilla

- 123%

- 112%

- Provo River

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Green River Basin**

- Lake Powell Res.

- 86%

- Green River

- 93%

- Price River

- Strawberry Res.

- 105%

- Starvation Res.

- 106%

- Scofield Res.

- 109%

- Colorado River

- Duchesne

- 106%

- Myton

- 94%

- Upper Stillwater

- 109%

- Randlett

- 89%

- Moon Lake

- 107%

- Tabiona

- 101%

- Red Fleet Res.

- 86%

- Flaming Gorge Res.

- 92%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Sevier River Basin**

- Hatch

- 78%

- Kingston

- 63%

- 79%

- Cedar City

- 85%

- Sevier River East Fork

- Piute Res.

- 71%

- Minersville

- 63%

- Beaver River

- Beaver

- 85%

- Clear Creek

- Sevier River

- Sevier

- 80%

- Gunnison

- 48%

- Salina Creek

- Ephraim Creek

- Sevier Lake

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Virgin River Basin**

- Santa Clara River

- Virgin River North Fork

- Virgin River East Fork

- Pine Valley

- 62%

- Littlefield, AZ

- 57%

- Virgin

- 73%

- Hurricane

- 71%

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Flood Potential

## Increased Flood Potential

- Cache Valley

- City Creek

- Jordan River

- However, as of early May, the flood threat has decreased due to the mild climate and absence of rainfall in the latter half of april and early May.
- Any flood scenario will most likely occur due to an intense rainfall event, an excessive warming of 90 degrees for over four days.

## Hydrologic Outlook

- What if?

- What if we modeled the current snowpack and input a former year’s spring climate?

- How would the rivers react?

## Hydrologic Outlook

- City Creek near Salt Lake City

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1983 Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1986 Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1995 Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1997 Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Logan River near Logan

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 Logan Snow vs. Logan Climate of 1983 Current Flood Flow at 1360 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 Logan Snow vs. Logan Climate of 1984 Current Flood Flow at 1360 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 Logan Snow vs. Logan Climate of 1986 Current Flood Flow at 1360 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 Logan Snow vs. Logan Climate of 1991 Current Flood Flow at 1360 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 Logan Snow vs. Logan Climate of 1997 Current Flood Flow at 1360 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Peak Flow Forecast

## Hydrologic Outlook

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Short Term Forecast

## Hydrologic OutlookShort Term Forecast

- Temperature through May 10th, 2006
- Cooler temperature levels
- Precipitation through April 15th, 2005
- Below average amounts of precipitation through early May

- Click for Satellite

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Long Range Forecast

## Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures 

## Forecasted Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures 

- La Nina conditions soon to be ENSO neutral
- Long range forecast skill is weak with neutral conditions
- Wait and see attitude for second half of May

## Spring Climate

- Spring climate will dictate runoff scenario
- Soil moisture is drying out with this mild dry airmass
- This is reducing the runoff efficiency
- Cool wet spring will enhance runoff efficiency and heighten flood potential
- Mild climate is dominating the spring runoff
- Large snowpack will produce above normal runoff
- Our wet sponge is drying out
- Second half of May is unknown
- Warmer drier spring will reduce water volume and lessen flood potential
- Current conditions are ideal to reduce flood threat
- Slow melt due to mild climate and absence of rainfall is inefficient melt process
- Less efficient melt process
- We are living this scenario as of early May

## Forecast UpdatesContact the CBRFC (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center)

- Forecast Services
- Up to the minute forecast updates
- Hourly, daily, and monthly time scales
- Reservoir inflow
- Peak flow forecasts

- _[www.cbrfc.noaa.gov](http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/)_

- Contact
- Michelle Schmidt
- Hydrologist in Charge
- 801-524-5130
- Steve Shumate
- Development and Operational Hydrologist
- 801-524-5130

## Forecast UpdatesContact the National Weather Service Forecast Center (Weather Info)

- Forecast Services
- Flood Forecasts, Advisories, Watches, and Warnings
- Weather Forecasts
- Radar, satellite, weather station data
- Observed conditions
- Climate data

- _[http://www.weather.gov/](http://www.weather.gov/)_

- Contact
- Brian McInerney
- Hydrologist
- 801-971-2033

## Contact Information

- Additional Information
- Contact
- Brian McInerney
- Hydrologist
- National Weather Service
- 801-971-2033 c
- brian.mcinerney@noaa.gov