# Presentation: 709766

## U.S. EPA National Air Quality Conference-2002

**Informal Mentoring Session:**
**Developing Your Forecast Program**

- Lewis Weinstock
- Forsyth County Environmental Affairs Department
- Winston-Salem, North Carolina
- 336-727-8060 or weinstl1@co.forsyth.nc.us

## GETTING OFF THE GROUND

- What are you trying to accomplish?
- Providing _[health](file:///links/Color%20Code.htm)__ based warnings._
- Activate alert system for a regional coalition.
- Deciding basis of program.
- Traditional ozone only.
- Consideration of 1 hour & 8 hour ozone standards.
- PM programs for _[smoke](file:///links/Puget%20Sound%20Clean%20Air%20Agency%20-%20What%20is%20a%20burn%20ban.htm)__ and __[burning](file:///links/Smoke%20Management%20Monitoring%20and%20Enforcement.htm)__ management._
- Year round _[multi-pollutant](slide11.xml)__._
- Determining geographic _[delimiters](file:///links/Division%20of%20Air%20Quality%20-%20Ozone%20Forecast%20Center%20-%20Ozone%20Monitors.htm)__._
- Forecasts broken by regions (cities, MSA’s)
- Develop realistic goals.

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## ASSEMBLING YOUR TEAM & PRODUCT

- Internal resources.
- meteorologists, chemists, PIO’s, statisticians, IT people.
- Forecast partners.
- State-local partnerships, _[universities](file:///links/Baltimore-Washington%20Air%20Quality%20Forecast.htm)__, __[COG’s](file:///links/DEP%20--%20Online%20Air%20Quality.htm)__, consultants, __[climate offices](file:///links/The%20State%20Climate%20Office%20of%20North%20Carolina.htm)__, NWS, health departments._
- Assess financial & senior managerial support.
- Look for funding sources like _[CMAQ](file:///links/The%20Congestion%20Mitigation%20and%20Air%20Quality%20Improvement%20Program%20(CMAQ).htm)__ and tag fees._
- _[Review EPA Forecasting Guidance Document.](file:///links/Forecasting%20Guidance.pdf)_
- Cultivate media interest.
- Meet individually with TV meteorologists and _[newspaper](file:///links/Checking%20ozone%20levels%20becoming%20routine%20for%20many.htm)__ editors._
- Design your look.

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## BUILDING CASE HISTORIES

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## DEVELOPING OZONE/MET RELATIONSHIPS

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## Slide 6

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## REAL TIME DATA ISSUES

- Getting access to monitoring data (_[GA](file:///links/Current%20Ambient%20Particulate%20Matter%20(FINE)%20Concentrations.htm)__, __[PA](file:///links/PA%20DEP%20BAQ%20-%20Current%20Air%20Quality%20Polllution%20and%20Weather%20Data.htm)__, __[NC-Forsyth](file:///links/hlycal.txt)__)_
- How does monitoring data flow within your agency?
- Spatial representation: Do you have enough _[density](slide14.xml)__?_
- Validity issues (automated QA).
- Handling the 8 hour ozone time _[lag](slide12.xml)__ (surrogates)?_
- Retrieving met and forecast data.
- _[Automation](slide13.xml)__ and archiving issues._
- Data availability during off-site forecasts (home PC’s).
- How will AIRNOW enhancements help with these issues?
- Real time models like UAM & MAQSIP.

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## TOP FIVE FORECAST BLUNDERS

- 1.	The “Knee Jerk”.

- 2.	Playing hunches.

- 3.	Intransigence.

- 4.	Information overload.

- 5.	Becoming distracted.

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## KEEPING ON TRACK

- Schedule out the forecast season.
- Track performance and accuracy statistics.
- Keep outreach and media people in the loop.
- Forecasters should work as a team.
- Daily forecast discussions.
- Interagency conference calls and coordinating the forecasting of “border” regions.
- Be prepared for mid-course corrections.
- Providing technical discussions.

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## KEY ISSUES AT THE CONFERENCE

- Latest O3 & PM health research.
- NOAA’s air quality forecasting plans & real time modeling.
- Getting the media’s perspective.
- New funding opportunities for awareness programs.
- Innovative educational programs.
- Progress in year-round forecasting programs using PM2.5.
- Handling emergency response.

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## http://www.co.forsyth.nc.us/EnvAffairs/

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## Slide 12

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## AUTOMATING DOWNLOADS

- _[AUTOMATING DOWNLOADS](http://www.getright.com/)_

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## ASSESSING MONITOR DENSITY

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## MODELING INFORMATION

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002

## Daily Forecasting Performance

- Forecasting & Public Outreach: Mentoring Session

- 2/3/2002