# Presentation: 917656

## Annual Energy Outlook 2003

**Mary J. Hutzler **
**Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting **
**Energy Information Administration**
**March 18, 2003**

## Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2025

**(quadrillion Btu)**

## Primary Energy Consumption, 2001, 2020, and 2025

**(quadrillion Btu)**

## New Conventional Car Attributes, 1980-2025

**(index, 1980=1.0)**

## New Light-duty Vehicle Fuel Economy, 1980-2025

**(miles per gallon)**

## Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Gross Domestic

**Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Gross Domestic**
**Product, 1970-2025 (index, 1970 = 1)**

## U.S. Energy Production and Consumption, 1960-2025

**(quadrillion Btu)**

## World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1970-2025

**(2001 dollars per barrel)**

## Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports, 1970-2025

**(million barrels per day)**

## Petroleum Products Share of Net Imports,

**2001, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 (percent)**

## Natural Gas Consumption, 1970-2025

**(trillion cubic feet)**

## U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2025

**U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2025**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

## Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports,

**1970-2025 (trillion cubic feet)**

## U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1970-2025

**U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1970-2025**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

## Technically Recoverable U.S. Natural Gas Resources as of

**Technically Recoverable U.S. Natural Gas Resources as of**
**January 1, 2002 (trillion cubic feet)**

## Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2025

**Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2025**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

## Natural Gas Supply Components, 2000-2025 (trillion cubic feet)

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**2025**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**30**

**35**

**Growth in Alaskan Production**

**Growth in Non-associated **
**Unconventional**

**Growth in Imports from**
**Canada and Mexico**

**Growth in LNG Imports**

**All Other Production*******

*******Includes total associated-dissolved, non-associated conventional, lower-48 offshore,**
**and Supplemental natural gas production.  Also includes 2001 Canadian, Mexican, and**
**LNG imports and Alaskan and non-associated unconventional production.**

## Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2025

**(2001 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**0.5**

**1.0**

**1.5**

**2.0**

**2.5**

**3.0**

**3.5**

**4.0**

**4.5**

**History**

**Projections**

**AEO2003**

**AEO2002**

**1995**

**2025**

**1.55**

**7**

**Reference case**
**(nominal dollars)**

## Major Sources of Incremental Natural Gas Supply,2001-2020 and 2001-2025 (trillion cubic feet)

**Major Sources of Incremental Natural Gas Supply,****2001-2020 and 2001-2025 (trillion cubic feet)**

## Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2025

**(2001 dollars per ton)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**6**

**12**

**18**

**24**

**30**

**36**

**42**

**48**

**54**

**History**

**Projections**

**AEO2003**

**AEO2002**

**1995**

**2025**

**Average price**
**(nominal dollars)**

**26**

**18.83**

## Coal Production by Region, 1970-2025

**(million short tons)**

## Electricity Price, 1970-2025

**(2001 cents per kilowatthour)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**1**

**2**

**3**

**4**

**5**

**6**

**7**

**8**

**9**

**10**

**History**

**Projections**

**AEO2003**

**AEO2002**

**1970**

**2025**

**Average nominal price**

**1.7**

**12.1**

## Population, Gross Domestic Product, and Electricity Sales,

**Population, Gross Domestic Product, and Electricity Sales,**
**1965-2025 (5-year moving average annual percent growth)**

## Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, 1970-2025

**Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, 1970-2025**
**(billion kilowatthours)**

## Projected Electricity Generation by Fuel,

**Projected Electricity Generation by Fuel,**
**2001, 2010, 2020, and 2025 (billion kilowatthours)**

**2001**

**2020**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Natural gas**

**Renewables**

**Oil**

**0**

**500**

**1,000**

**1,500**

**2,000**

**2,500**

**3,000**

**2010**

**51**

**50**

**48**

**48 - percent of total**

**21**

**18**

**15**

**14**

**17**

**22**

**27**

**29**

**3**

**1**

**1**

**1**

**9**

**9**

**10**

**8**

**2025**

## Nuclear Generation, 2001-2025

**(billion kilowatthours)**

## Electricity Capacity, 2001-2025

**(gigawatts)**

## Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by North

**Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by North**
**American Electric Reliability Council Region, 2002-2025**
**(gigawatts)**

## Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1960-2025

**(million metric tons carbon equivalent)**

**2237 in 2025**

**1960**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**300**

**600**

**900**

**1,200**

**1,500**

**1,800**

**2,100**

**2,400**

**History**

**Projections**

**1800 in 2010**

**2082 in 2020**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**0.3**

**0.5**

**0.8**

**1.0**

**Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1990-2025**
**(index, 1990 = 1.0)**

**History**

**Projections**

**Carbon dioxide emissions**
**per dollar of gross domestic product**

## Slide 30