# Presentation: 617300

## Year of coordinated Observing, modeling and Forecasting:Addressing the Challenge of  Organized Tropical Convection

- If implemented in 2008, this initiative would be  a WCRP/THORPEX contribution to the UN Year of Planet Earth.**  **

_**A Joint WCRP/THORPEX Proposed Activity**_

**Year of coordinated Observing, modeling and Forecasting:**_***Addressing the Challenge of***_***  ***_*Organized Tropical Convection*_

- AKA : Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)

- BASC & CRC, MAY 2007
- NAS, Washington DC

## The multi-scale organization of tropical convection and scale interaction are grand challenges in the  prediction of weather and climate:

- How  is **organized convection** influenced by, and feedback to, the **large-scale circulation**?
- How does **large-scale dynamics, synoptic scale, and mesoscale** **convective organization**  interact?
- How does large-scale **tropical convection** interact with the **extra-tropics**?

- Global effects of organized tropical convection
- (J .Lin, NOAA/CDC**)**

- Mesoscale – Supercluster
- scale -interaction (Moncrieff 2004)

- Supercluster: a family of
- organized convective systems

## Our shortcomings in tropical convection severely limit the representation of key physics in weather & climate models

_**Diurnal cycle**_ - strongest “forced” signal in the climate system.
- Synoptic waves and _**easterly waves**_, including development & evolution of _**hurricanes and Tropical cyclones **_
_**Madden-Julian Oscillation**_ (_**MJO**_) and other large-scale convectively-coupled waves
_**monsoon**_ variability, including onset and break activity.
- Tropical mean state, including _**ITCZ**_ and distributions of rainfall over oceans & continents

- Winter 2005-6

- Kelvin Waves

- Rossby Waves

- MJOs

- Dominant Convectively-Coupled Tropical Waves Projected onto OLR Anomalies. Wheeler and Weickmann, 2001

## Mean Asian Summer (May-Sep) Monsoon Rainfall

- New and/or consolidated approaches are needed, approaches that are able to coordinate and focus the vast new resources developed in recent years .  Past attempts included programs such as _GATE, FGGE & TOGA COARE_.
- Our new approaches should _combine the strengths_ of such  efforts with our vastly expanding observational infrastructure & the tremendous gains seen in computational power.

- Observations 

- Global Atmospheric Models  

- Waliser et al., 2003

## Significant Advances in Resources 

_**Significant Advances in Resources **_

- Substantial progress Towards _GOOS_
-  Established _Enhanced In-Situ_ Observational Sites
- _Arrival of EOS-era_ of Satellite Observations
-  The Tropical Atmos-Ocean-Land System has never been so well observed.
-  Arrival of _Global Cloud-system “Resolving”_ Models
-  we have come to appreciate in many cases:
- Short-term weather errors <-> Long-term climate biases

- These advances in resources, technology and thinking need to be, woven together to maximize return on investment.

## Progress towards  GOOS

- _Progress towards  GOOS_

- PIRATA

## Enhanced In-situ

- _Observation Programs _

- GEWEX/CEOP

- ARM TWP

## Arrival of the EOS-era of Satellite Observations

- TOPEX: sea surface height
- QuickScat: ocean surface winds
- TRMM: precipitation
- TMI: sea surface temperature w/clouds
- AIRS: temperature and water vapor profiles
- CloudSat: cloud profiles
- Calipso: aerosol/thin-cloud profiles
- AMSRE: ocean precip, water vapor, liquid water
- MLS: upper tropospheric water vapor, cloud ice, temperature
- CERES: TOA and surface radiative fluxes
- MODIS: cloud characteristics, ocean color, land characteristics
- AURA platform: atmospheric composition/chemistry
- MISR: aerosol and cloud structure

- COARE: 120-day  IOP
-          ~6000 soundings

*Merely a sample, consider where we were 10-15 years ago...*

- _Tropical Soundings:_
- AIRS: ~100,000/day CloudSat: ~90,000/day

## Far from a single enterprise anymore...

*Far from a single enterprise anymore...*

## CAPT* Project runs climate models in weather forecast modePerfectly suited to a “focus year” Approach

- NCAR Day 3 Precipitation Error for DJF 1992-93

**The CAPT project is a joint project at LLNL of the DOE CCPP and ARM Programs*

*Courtesy S. Klein*

- _Short-term weather errors <-> Long-term climate biases_

- NCAR Precipitation Error
- for DJF Climatology

## Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling 

**and Forecasting Of Tropical Convection**

**Proposal: **Focus Year of Observation, Modeling & Prediction.
**Timeframe:**  ~2008 for ~ 1 Year
**Region:** ~ 40N - 40S : tropical-extratropical interests may warrant extending this.
**Time Scales:** Diurnal to Seasonal.
**Case Study **with Detailed Analyses**, **Modeling & Forecasting.
**Central Repositories** of in-situ, satellite & model data to store/disseminate data.
**Leverage/Coordinate **existing resources.

**Motivation**
- Leveraging the vast new observational datasets and computational resources in conjunction with new / high-resolution modeling frameworks to better characterize, understand, model and forecast multi-scale convective processes / dynamical interactions.

## Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling 

**and Forecasting Of Tropical Convection**

**Fundamental Science Questions**
- What are the most crucial elements of the large-scale circulation that influence the development, organization and maintenance of tropical convection?
- Under what circumstances and with what mechanisms is energy and momentum transferred between the convective, mesoscale, synoptic scale, and the large/planetary scale?
- How does organized tropical convection interact with the extra-tropical circulation?

## Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling 

**and Forecasting Of Tropical Convection**

**Potential Target Phenomena**
**Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)**-Advances in our modeling capabilities in the MJO are expected to lead to significant untapped predictability in both tropical weather forecasts, monsoon onsets and breaks, extra-tropical weather, and provide a bridge between weather and climate predictions.
**Convectively Coupled Waves (CCWs) **- Considered to be important building blocks of tropical convective variability and its organization (including the MJO), it is essential that such fundamental modes of variability be properly represented in our weather and climate models.
**Easterly Waves** - An important triggering mechanisms for tropical storms and cyclones, this organizing mechanism is crucial for properly forecasting high impact events as well as simulating an important land-atmosphere-ocean interaction and its impact on mean state features (e.g., ITCZ).
**Diurnal Cycle - **Our shortcomings in representing arguably the most basic and strongest forced mode of variability demands attention.  Moreover, studies indicate that the diurnal scale can rectify onto longer time scale processes.
**Monsoons ****-**These are complex multi-scale processes and within the proposed activity could be considered as the ultimate challenge or integrating theme as their variability is strongly influenced by the diurnal cycle, CCWs, the MJO, and land-atmosphere-ocean interaction.

## Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling 

**and Forecasting Of Tropical Convection**

**Overarching Goals**
- Through better understanding, improved data assimilation techniques/resources, and modeling capabilities, _**achieve significant gains in forecast skill**_ by 2012 in:

**Medium-range tropical weather forecasts, particularly disturbed conditions associated with organized convection.**
**Extended-range/subseasonal forecasts of the MJO.**
**Medium-to-extended range extratropical forecasts derived from improved tropical weather/climate and tropical-extratropical interactions.**

- Courtesy A. Simmons & M. Miller

## Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling 

**Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling **
**and Forecasting Of The Tropics**

**Resources / Implementation**
**Research Agenda**
- A set of “Target Phenomena” working groups and a series of international workshops designed to identify the most pressing and tractable problems from the Focus Year, design and coordinate activities, share modeling strategies and successes, report results, and iterate on additional problems or future Years.
**Observations**
- Traditional aspects of the _operational in-situ and satellite network_.
- The wide array of new, _research-oriented satellite_ missions.
- Time-scale relevant aspects of the _GOOS_ (e.g., buoy arrays, drifters, floats),
- _Enhanced in-situ measurement_ programs (e.g., ARM, GEWEX/CEOP)
- _IOPs_ of opportunity (e.g., AMMA, VOCALS, TACE, T-PARC)

## Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling 

**Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling **
**and Forecasting Of The Tropics**

**Resources / Implementation, Continued**
**Modeling & Forecasts**
- _THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)_. *Examine forecast error growth to investigate model parameterization shortcomings as well as initial condition errors, with special emphasis on identified cases/events.*
- A variety of research-oriented _multi-scale simulation/hindcast modeling components_ (e.g., global and regional CRM, MMFs, channel models, AGCMs, CGCMs).  I*mproving understanding and modeling of multi-scale organized convection, and transitioning knowledge into improved parameterizations and forecasting capability.*
**Potential/Additional Data Archiving/Dissemination Resources**
- _Multi-Component:_ WIS - WMO Information System
- _Field Programs_: NCAR/EOL - formerly JOSS
- _Satellite_: NASA GES DISC (e.g., Giovanni, ATDD)
- _Analyses & Forecasts_: TIGGE Archive Centers - ECMWF, CMA, NCAR

## Draft Science Plan

- Recent WCRP & WWRP
- JSC Meetings Have Advocated/Given Support

- Planning to Establish
- A Preliminary Science Team Soon

- NERC has recently
- Funded a 3.5 Year Closely Aligned Effort (Slingo)

- NASA has one or more upcoming NRAs that are relevant

- Connections to Asian/International  Monsoon Year are Being Made/Explored

## WCRP

- WWRP-THORPEX

- JSC

- JSC

- CLIC

- CLIVAR

- GEWEX

- SPARC

**Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)**

- Verification

- TMRP

- THORPEX

- Nowcasting

- MesoScale

- Societal

- Collaborative
- Research Between WCRP and
- WWRP-THORPEX: Science Priorities and  Database Requirements
- “White Paper 1” Lead Brunet

- WCRP/WWRP -  *Primary* _Science_ Linkages Associated with YOTC

**Fundamental Science Questions**
- What are the most crucial elements of the large-scale circulation that influence the development, organization and maintenance of tropical convection?
- Under what circumstances and with what mechanisms is energy and momentum transferred between the convective, mesoscale, synoptic scale, and the large/planetary scale?
- How does organized tropical convection interact with the extra-tropical circulation?

**Initiative Goals**
- _Achieve significant gains in forecast skill by 2012 in:_
- Medium-range tropical weather forecasts, particularly disturbed conditions associated with organized convection.
- Extended-range/subseasonal forecasts of the MJO.
- Medium-to-extended range extratropical forecasts derived from improved tropical weather/climate and tropical-extratropical interactions.

**Target Phenomena**
-  Convectively Coupled Waves / MJO
-  Easterly Waves / Tropical Cyclones / ET
-  Diurnal Cycle
-  Monsoons

- CEOP

- Modeling &
- Prediction
- Panel

- Asian
- Australian
- Monsoon
- Panel

- VAMOS

- etc

- Indian Ocean Panel

- WGNE

- Radiation
- Panel

- Science
- Support &
- NMHS
- Connections

- Intermediary
- Organizing /
- Contributing
- Entities
- ??
- TIGGE WG
- PDP WG

## WCRP

- WWRP-THORPEX

- JSC

- Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)
- Science and Implementation Team (SIT):
- Representation to include: Science, Dataset/Observations, Modeling/WGNE & Forecasting, THORPEX & TIGGE,
- GEWEX & CLIVAR/IMY representation.
- 12-15 Members
- _Near Term Objectives:_
- Complete science plan
- Draft implementation plan
- SIT Meet in Fall ‘07

- THORPEX

- AREP

- AREP/THORPEX
-  Admin Support Via
- Caughy+Nicovic
- &
- $$ Support for SIT
-  Meeting

- WMO
- Information
- Services (WIS)

- Support
- Indicated
- But Not
- Defined
- Or Tangible
- Yet

- WCRP/WWRP -  _Administrative_ Connections Associated with YOTC

- CLIVAR

- GEWEX

- JSC Oversight Committee for Monsoon Cross-Cut Initiative

- International Monsoon Year (IMY)
- Task Team

- Support &
- Coordination

- IPO Support
- via Cattle
- And possible
- $$ Support for
- SIT
- Meeting

- Support &
- Coordination

- JSC

- TMRP

- Field Campaigns
- &
- NMHS
- Connections

## Year of Tropical Convection

***Development & Tentative TimeLine***

- Stems from WCRP-THORPEX Joint Efforts/Discussions on Tropical Convection

- < WCRP-THORPEX Sponsored

- e.g., CLIVAR, USCLIVAR, GEWEX/CEOP, NCAR/NSF/Tiimes, WGNE, NASA, EOL, ARM, NERC , NSF, NOAA/NCEP, TIGGE/THORPEX

- < Present Efforts

- $ Meetings >

- < $$ Data Support
- TIGGE, Satellite, Field

- $$$ Research Support >

## Year of Tropical Convection

- Int. CLIVAR HELP

*Web Organization of Overlapping Field Program Information*

- http://www.clivar.org/data/convection/background.php

## ERRORS

- ERRORS

- 2007

- 2008

- 2009

- diurnal cycle, synoptic systems,
- intraseasonal, seasonal,
- mesoscale-to-planetary-scale organization

**Year of Coordinated Observing, Modeling and Forecasting Of Tropical Convection**

- 2010