# Presentation: 220767

## National Severe Weather Services

**Dr. Russell Schneider**
**NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center**

**20 June 2007**

***opportunities, enhancements & plans***

**Briefing for NWS Partners**

## Outline

- Product Refinement
- Watch Outline Update (WOU) frequency
- New Products & Service Improvements
- Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
- Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
- Upcoming Extended Range Product Enhancements
- GIS-friendly latitude-longitude “points” products
- NDFD compatible grids
- Standardized MD Headlines
- Watch Hazard Probabilities

## Watch Update Refinement

**Products should be consistent:**
**	****National overview from SPC**
**	****	****Local nuances from WFOs**

**WOU & WCN**

## Watch Update Refinement

-  **Option 1:**  Increase Frequency of Current WOU Product
-  **Option 2:**  Create New “Digital Services” Product with 	         Continuous Updates  (VTEC & UGC only)
-  **Option 3:**   Focus Efforts on Synchronization of Current 	          Watch Update Process
- 	         (Watch Status, WCN & WOU updates)

**Discussion and Suggestions Welcome !!!**

## Description: Line drawn for areas where there is at least a 30% probability for severe thunderstorms (equivalent to a high end slight risk threat). Issued daily with graphic & discussion.

**Description:** Line drawn for areas where there is at least a 30% probability for severe thunderstorms (equivalent to a high end slight risk threat). Issued daily with graphic & discussion.

- Issued: 0935 UTC 18 May 2007  valid: 21-26 May 2007

## Issued: 0542 AM CDT Tue June 12, 2007   valid: 14-20 June 2007

- Issued: 0542 AM CDT Tue June 12, 2007   valid: 14-20 June 2007

**Description:** Day 3-8 forecast of “critical” fire weather conditions including potential dry lightning busts.  Issued daily with graphic & discussion

## Planned Service Enhancements

- Day 3-8 Fire & Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlooks
- GIS friendly latitude-longitude “points” product
- NDFD compatible grids

- DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
- NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
- 0424 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007
- VALID TIME 051200Z - 061200Z
- FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
- ... FIRE WEATHER CATEGORICAL ...
**CRIT   **32441455 34121549 35631774 36631762 37661682 38771577
-        40721396 41281213 41271035 40530821 39940761 38930709
-        38310686 37540700 35160696 32680674 31720705
**EXTM   **34791446 35221543 35871584 36821607 37831525 39111309
-        39051244 38361191 37071216 36251257 35041357 34791446
- &&

## Planned Service Enhancements

- Day 3-8 Fire & Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlooks
- GIS friendly latitude-longitude “points” product
- NDFD compatible grids

- DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
- NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
- 0424 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007
- VALID TIME 051200Z - 061200Z
- FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
- ... FIRE WEATHER CATEGORICAL ...
**CRIT   **32441455 34121549 35631774 36631762 37661682 38771577
-        40721396 41281213 41271035 40530821 39940761 38930709
-        38310686 37540700 35160696 32680674 31720705
**EXTM   **34791446 35221543 35871584 36821607 37831525 39111309
-        39051244 38361191 37071216 36251257 35041357 34791446
- &&

**D4-5**
**D6**

## Watch Hazard Probabilities

- Do all Convective Watches have the same risk?   **No**

_**Watch Hazard Probabilities**_
- Tornado (2+ reports):	**80%**
- EF2+ Tornado: 		**50%**
- Wind (10+ reports):	**90%**
- 75 mph Wind:		**40%**
- Hail (10+ reports):	**95+%**
- 2”+ Hail:			**70%**
- Hail & Wind (6+ reports):	**95+%**

- PDS Tornado Watch: 2006 Tennessee Outbreak

## Watch Hazard Probabilities

- Watch Hazard Probability Product (WWP)

_**Watch Hazard Probabilities**_
- Tornado (2+ reports):	**80%**
- EF2+ Tornado: 		**50%**
- Wind (10+ reports):	**90%**
- 75 mph Wind:		**40%**
- Hail (10+ reports):	**95+%**
- 2”+ Hail:			**70%**
- Hail & Wind (6+ reports):	**95+%**

- Easily Decodable Text Product
- .. that includes hazards & other key watch attributes

## Mesoscale Discussion HeadersStandardized

- [Mesoscale Discussion Product Header Deleted]
-    **CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY**
-    VALID 172144Z - 172315Z
-        [Text Deleted]
-    **47400171 48260054 47539865 45319816 44389858 44380028**
**   ****46330153**

**Concerning**

**Lat-Lon**

## Permitted MD Headers

- SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY		(less than 30%)
- SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    		(30-60%)
- SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 		(60-90%)
- SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 	(60-90%)
- SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY (60-90%)
- SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON 		(>90%)

- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
- TORNADO WATCH
- HEAVY RAINFALL
- OUTLOOK UPGRADE
- 01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE
- BLIZZARD
- HEAVY SNOW
- FREEZING RAIN
- WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

## www.spc.noaa.gov