# Presentation: 654944

## ONE NASA, ONE ESA, TWO PARTNERS

- Achievements and prospective on Cost Engineering collaboration

*Presented by H. Joumier*
*Head of ESA Cost Engineering*

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

- Europe in Space

- ESA replaced the former Eldo launcher and Esro satellite organisations, grouping the complete range of civilian space activities in a single agencyPortugal joined as 15th member state in 2000

- The European Space Agency was established in 1975

- Esro
- Satellites

- Eldo
- Launchers

**Cooperation arrangement: Canada**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## ESA Member States

**ESA has 16 member states :**
**•****	****Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Norway, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.**
**•****	****Canada takes part in some projects under a cooperation agreement.**
**Greece officially a member since March 2005**
**Luxemburg to be soon ratified**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Establishments Permanent ESA staff: 1912

**(Status: Jan 2004)**

- Establishments Permanent ESA staff: 1912

**GEN 15 - Feb 2003**

**Noordwijk, The Netherlands**
- ESTEC**	****(European Space Research and****	****Technology Centre)**
**Project management, testing of spacecraft,****development of new technologies,****space science**
**Staff: 1102**

**Paris, France**
- Head Office
**Incl. offices in Brussels, Toulouse, Kourou, Moscow, Washington, Houston**
**Staff: 387**

**Kourou, French Guiana**
- CSG
**Europe’s Spaceport for Ariane launches**

**Cologne, Germany**
- EAC** ****	****(European Astronaut****	****Centre)**
**Astronaut training**
**Staff: 18**

**Darmstadt, Germany**
- ESOC**	****(European Space ****	****Operations Centre)**
**Satellite operations**
**Staff: 244**

**Frascati, Italy**
- ESRIN
**Earth Observation,****Data Processing and Distribution**
**Staff: 153**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## ESA World Locations

**CDN**

**Washington**

**Kourou**

**Maspalomas**

**Malindi**

**Moscow**

**Perth**

**Brussels**

- ESA Head Office**Paris**

**Toulouse**

**Villafranca**

- ESRIN**Frascati**

- ESOC**Darmstadt**

- EAC**Cologne**

**Redu**

**Kiruna**

**GEN 17 - Jan 2001**

**Houston**

**Santiago**

**Svalbard**

**New Norcia**

- ESTEC**Noordwijk**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Budget for 2004

- Income from member states and participating states

**M€: Million of Euro**

**L:   0.07%, 1.48 M€**

**IRL: 0.40%, 9.17 M€**

**I: 11.85%, 270 M€**

**NL: 3.34%, 76 M€**

**N: 1.31%, 29.88 M€**

**E: 4.89%, 111.21 M€**

**S: 2.42%, 55 M€**

**CH: 3.78%, 85.94 M€**

**UK: 8.20%, 186.60 M€**

**CND: 0.79%, 18.01 M€**

**A: 1.41%, 32.19 M€**

**D: 22.40%, 509.73 M€**

**CZ: 0.01%, 0.25 M€**

**B: 7.12%, 162 M€**

**DK: 1.08%, 24.48 M€**

**FIN: 0.70%, 16 M€**

**F: 29.71%, 676.28 M€**

**P: 0.45%, 10.20 M€**

**Income from member and participating states ****	****:****	****2 275.92 ****M€**
**Other income****	****:****	****422.40 ****M€**
**Total:****	****:****	****2 698.32 ****M€**

**BUD 01 - Feb 2004**

**G:   0.07%, 1.50 M€**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Budgets for 2004Breakdown by programmes

- Budgets for 2004Breakdown by programmes

**BUD 02 - Feb 2004**

**Financed by third parties**
**5%, 131.55 M€**

**Technology & Exploration**
**2%, 66 M€**

**Launchers**
**17%, 458.26 M€**

**Human Spaceflight 16%, 421.11 M€**

**Microgravity**
**3%, 78.94 M€**

**Associated to General Budget**
**5%, 133.13 M€**

**Science**
**14%, 370 M€**

**Earth Observation**
**12%, 322.77 M€**

**Telecommunications**
**7%, 194.37 M€**

**Navigation**
**12%, 336.41 M€**

**Approved programmes****	****:****	****2 566.78 ****M€**
**Programmes financed by third parties****	****:****	****131.54 ****M€**
**Total****	****:****	****2 698.32 ****M€**

**General Budget**
**7%, 185.78 M€**

**Budgets 2004**
**2 698.32 ****M€**

**M€: Million of Euro**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## ESA Organigramme

**Director of**
**Resources**
**Management**

**Hans Kappler**

**Director of**
**Operations and**
**Infrastructure**

**Gaele Winters**

**Director of **
**External Relations**

**Jean-Pol Poncelet**

**Director of**
**Technical and**
**Quality Management**

**Michel Courtois**

**GEN 14 - Apr 2005**

- Director General
- Jean-Jacques Dordain

**Giuseppe Viriglio**

**Director of**
**Science**

**David Southwood**

**Director of**
**Launchers**

**Antonio Fabrizi**

**Director of**
**Human Missions**
** ****and Exploration**

**Daniel Sacotte**

**Director of**
**Earth Observation**

**Volker Liebig**

**Director of**
**European Union**
**and Industrial**
**Programmes**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Working as « ONE ESA »What does it mean for Cost Engineering?

- Working as « ONE ESA »What does it mean for Cost Engineering?

- Closer interractions and collaboration between functions
- Filling in the gap between Contracts and Finance
- Filling in the gap between technical disciplines and Project Teams
- Filling the gap between Finance and Design
- Etc...
- Cost Engineering is at the borderline of all these functions
- Team work prevails
- Cost Engineering is a Team
- Common ethics
- Common methods
-  Standardised services
- Cost Engineering is a solution provider for study and project teams

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## The ESA Concurrent Design Facility

- Started in 1998
- Visit Joe Hamaker/B. Ruthledge in August 1998
- Initiative ESA General Studies Program in September 1998
- Cost Engineereing invited as member of the Core Team
- Start of Pilot case in November 1998
- Exponential development
- Puts Cost Engineering on equal chair basis with other design disciplines
- Success from start
- Used mainly for early studies and education
- Backbone of the System engineering competences currently developed into the Technical and Quality Management Directorate.
- Cost engineers hold time to time System engineer or Team Leader positions.

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## The ESA Concurrent Design Facility

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## CDF: activity statistics

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Concurrent Engineering: an iterative process

- Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)

**Mission requirements **
**analysis**

**Mission analysis**

**Sub-system design**

**Design verification**

**Risk assessment**

**The Spiral Model**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## CDF Achievements

- Credits: NASA/JPL/University of Colorado, LASP

**	**The CDF has performed more than 50 activities including:
- Internal pre-phase A, mission feasibility and preliminary design studies
- Architecture level assessment studies, jointly with Industry
- Complex payload instrument design (IDA), incl. platform, system, mission
- Reviews of Industrial Phase A studies (internal + Industry)
- ISS on-board facilities/experiments accommodation studies; teaming with/supporting Industry in Phase A
- Preparation of specifications for Phase-B (e.g. ExoMars)
- Educational, training, promotion and standardisation activities
- One joint study with NASA/JPL/PDC-Team X, for the scientific STEP project

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## ESTEC CDF / JPL Team X STEP joint design sessions

- Credits: Brockmann Consult/ESA

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## ESTEC CDF / JPL Team X STEP joint design sessions

- Credits: SOHO/LASCO/EIT (ESA & NASA)

**ESTEC CDF / JPL Team X STEP joint design sessions**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Collaboration with NASA

- Early Case study for Space Exploration
- Action commonly decided -Joe Hamaker/H. Joumier- in 2002 i.e. two years before the US presidential Space Exploration initiative
- Study carried out by Charles Hunt (MSFC) and Michel van Pelt (ESA)
- Objectives
-  Compare ESA/NASA Costing methodologies
- Prepare tools for space exploration missions
- Get ready for international collaboration on real cases
- Opportunity for cross-cultural enrichment
- Based on the public domain case for Mars from R. Zubrin

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Results: Affordability

- Are Human Mars Missions Expensive?

- Mars Direct Investment per Year Comparison - Beer versus Mars

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Human exploration mission studies

- Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)

**Human exploration mission studies**

**Lunar Excursion Vehicle**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Human exploration mission studies

**Human exploration mission studies**

**Human Mission to Mars**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## The precursor models

- The rationale
- Linking performances, architecture, technologies to size and complexities
- Emulating collaboration between technical and costing functions
- Conciliating proprietary data issues with external collaboration

- Credits: ESA / AEOS - Medialab

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## The precursor models

- Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)

- Design to Cost oriented Models

- DEVT

- Cost
- Sched.
- Risk

- correlate mission parameters to Cost/Schedule/Risk

- DTC LOOP

- Correlates mission parameters to standard cost drivers

- Precursormodels

- Cost/Technical meeting point

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## The way to collaborate through precursor models

- Credits: ESA-D.Ducros

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Precursor model example for launcher

- _["Day One" Preliminary Design for large SRM](file:///../../My%20Documents/Models%20for%20Launchers/Solid%20Rocket%20Boosters-2.xls)_

*Launchers**  Precursor model *

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## How to perform a « Day One » cost estimate for providing early real time answers in CDF?

- Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)

**How to perform a « Day One » cost estimate for providing early real time answers in CDF?**

**ESA Cost Engineering has developed RACE (Rapid Avanced Cost Estimates)**

**An integrated suite of CERs than derives sub-system level cost estimates from mission requirements and payload definition**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Various precursor models already developed
TIW-D for digital equipment
TIW-O for Optical Instruments
SOCRATES (full life cycle RLV system simulator coupled with cost models)
Others under progress
TIW-R for RF Equipment
TIW-A for antennas
Heavy launcher full life cycle system/cost simulator
Lunar and Martian bases full life cycle system/cost simulator

- TIW-D for digital equipment
- TIW-O for Optical Instruments
- SOCRATES (full life cycle RLV system simulator coupled with cost models)
- Others under progress
- TIW-R for RF Equipment
- TIW-A for antennas
- Heavy launcher full life cycle system/cost simulator
- Lunar and Martian bases full life cycle system/cost simulator

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Precursor Design Model

**Set number and type of engines**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Precursor Design Model

- 	Operations cost estimates can be based on some results from the preliminary design tool and some additional parameters to be set:

**Type of engines => type of propellants**

** ****Fleet size**
** ****Flight rate**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Preliminary Cost Estimates

- 	Once everything has been set-up, the combined Design Tool and Cost Model work something like this:

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## TIW-D: Application example :

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Product Tree

**Optical assembly(ies)**

**Cooling Subsystem**

**Structure**

**Focal Plane Assembly(ies)**

**Calibration subsystem**

**Mechanism(s)**

**System Level Activities**

**System Hardware**

**Payload / Instrument(s)**

**System Software**

**Instrument Control Electronics**

- TIW-O  Estimating Optical Instruments

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

**Notes:**
Model specifically developed for each subsystem
Focus on optics and detectors as hardware cost drivers
System Level activities cost-to-cost RELATIONSHIPS but aim at using precursor models
Software Specific tools Not handled at the moment (electronics and software in future defined by functions)
+ Harness

## Early Stage mode

- Mission requirements

- Cost drivers

- Detailed layout

- Cost

*Cost model*

*Precursor models 2*

*Precursor models 1*

*Design-to-cost*

- Yes

- No

- ?

- +

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

**Notes:**
First set of Precursor models which are basically technical formulas that link mission requirements to technical characteristics of the components of each subsystem
Second set of Precusor models which link mission these technical characteristics to actual cost drivers (such as complexity...)
Early stage precursor models :
Enable to fill in the detailed design model 
Derive from the mission requirements and the standard configuration the required input data for the detailed design model

## +

- Example : Telescope Optical Assembly
- and Structure Subsystem

- Type of  Telescope

-  Number and type of optical elements (mirrors/lenses)
- Class of mirrors

**Optical ****Assembly****Detailed Layout**

- Mirrors Size

- Aperture

- F#

**Structure SubsystemDetailed Layout**

- Structure Material

- Baseplate Size

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Space Exploration Life Cycle Cost modelling

- Mission Objectives

- Element 1D

- Element iD

- Element 2D

- Element nD

- Element 11

- Element i1

- Element 21

- Element n1

- Element 1j

- Element ij

- Element 2j

- Element nj

- Element 1m

- Element im

- Element 2m

- Element nm

- Infrastructure Matrices (Element Type vs instances)

- Scenario A

- Scenario B

- Elements are detailed down the Product Tree at appropriate level

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Space Exploration Life Cycle Cost modelling

- Mission Objectives

- Leg 1D

- Leg iD

- Leg 2D

- Leg nD

- Leg 11

- Leg i1

- Leg 21

- Leg n1

- Leg 1j

- Leg ij

- Leg 2j

- Leg nj

- Leg 1m

- Leg im

- Leg 2m

- Leg nm

- Scenario A

- Scenario B

- Transp.,Ops and Maintenance Matrices (Vehicles vs traject. X Nb trips)

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Space Exploration Life Cycle Cost modelling

- CDF STUDIES

- Top-Down LCC estimate

- CDF studies performed in the frame of the Aurora programme allow to progressively calibrate the global Life Cycle cost estimate model

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Space Exploration Life Cycle Cost modelling

- Mission Objectives

**Infrastructure**
**Matrix**

**Transport**
**Operations**
**Maintenance**
**Matrix**

**Cost/Benefits**
**Analysis**

- Scenario B

**Infrastructure**
**Matrix**

**Transport**
**Operations**
**Maintenance**
**Matrix**

**Cost/Benefits**
**Analysis**

- Scenario C

- Selection

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Evolution towards an operational service

- Maturing processes
- The ESA Cost Engineering RoadMap
- Code of Cost Engineering Best Practices
- Classes of estimates / Charter of services
- Accountability

- Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Cost Engineering RoadMap

- Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Current skills per product

- Credits: NASA/JPL/Space Science Institute

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Accountability
E_MIS = ESA missed cost item
I_MIS = Industry missed cost item
TRL = Heritage/TRL difference
DDV = HW Matrix/development plan difference
PROC = Procurement approach/Industrial team build up difference
RISK = Cost Risk Analysis/Management reserve difference
MOD_U = ESA model under-estimate
MOD_O = ESA model over-estimate

- E_MIS = ESA missed cost item
- I_MIS = Industry missed cost item
- TRL = Heritage/TRL difference
- DDV = HW Matrix/development plan difference
- PROC = Procurement approach/Industrial team build up difference
- RISK = Cost Risk Analysis/Management reserve difference
- MOD_U = ESA model under-estimate
- MOD_O = ESA model over-estimate

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Cost Engineering Charter of Services

- Credits: EIT Consortium (ESA/NASA)

- Framework agreement with Users
- What type of Cost Engineering services?
- For what quality (accuracy) and delivery date?
- For what ‘Price” i.e. effort to prepare?
- Similar to NASA CRL
- Based on the AACE1 International recommended Practice No 17R-97
- Adapted and completed for ESA environment
- Valid for Cost Estimating
- Extended for Proposal assessment and reviews

*1-Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering*

**Cost Engineering Charter of Services**

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Metrics  for Cost Estimating:
Accuracy = f(Complexity and Time to Prepare)
Design Maturity Margin = f(Complexity and class of Estimate)
Effort= f(Complexity and magnitude)
Correcting factors to account for the Input data quality
Accessibility of data
Stucture of data
Availibility of specialists for interview 
Percentage of effort for estimates updating
Metrics for Proposals evaluation
As a function of Complexity and Phase
Corrective factor for the number of proposals per ITT to estimate
Metrics for Reviews
As a function of Complexity and Phase

- Accuracy = f(Complexity and Time to Prepare)
- Design Maturity Margin = f(Complexity and class of Estimate)
- Effort= f(Complexity and magnitude)
- Correcting factors to account for the Input data quality
- Accessibility of data
- Stucture of data
- Availibility of specialists for interview
- Percentage of effort for estimates updating
- Metrics for Proposals evaluation
- As a function of Complexity and Phase
- Corrective factor for the number of proposals per ITT to estimate
- Metrics for Reviews
- As a function of Complexity and Phase

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Class of Estimates Definition

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Few Metrics Table examples

- Credits: NASA/JPL/Space Science Institute

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005

## Final words

- NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

- 12th April 2005