# Presentation: 403680

## Climate Change

**Climate Change**

- NREL Energy Analysis Forum
- Understanding the U.S. Strategic Interests in Expanding Renewable Energy Systems Worldwide
- Washington, DC
- June 11-12, 2003

**Notes:**
Thank you Mr. Chairman.  I want to thank the organizers of the World Gas Conference for the opportunity to be here today and to complement them on the superb job they have done.  It is a pleasure to participate in this splendid meeting.

I also wish to thank the sponsors of the Global Energy Technology Strategy Program for research support that made this presentation possible.

## Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations

- Stabilization of greenhouse gas **concentrations** is the goal of the Framework Convention on Climate Change
- Stabilizing the concentration of CO2 is different than other greenhouse gases

- Stabilization means that GLOBAL emissions must peak in the decades ahead and then decline indefinitely thereafter.

## “Core Technologies”and Stabilizing CO2

**Core technologies**
- Energy intensity
- Nuclear
- Renewables

- The “Gap”

**Gap technologies**
- Carbon capture & disposal
- Adv. fossil
- H2 and Adv. Transportation
- Biotechnologies
- Soils, Bioenergy, adv. Biological energy

**“****Core Technologies”****and Stabilizing CO****2**

## Energy Intensity Improvement in the SRES

## Non-Carbon Emissions in the SRES

## Slide 6

## Climate policy
Biomass productivity
Other agricultural productivity
Complementary and competing technologies
Hydrogen
Carbon capture and disposal

- Biomass productivity
- Other agricultural productivity
- Complementary and competing technologies
- Hydrogen
- Carbon capture and disposal

- Biomass contribution to addressing climate change

**Biomass, an Example**

## summary—technology assumptions

- MiniCAM b2

## U.S. Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy

## Slide 10

## Stabilization could dramatically changes global energy

- BAU

- CO2 Stabilization

- BAU tech.

## Stabilization could dramatically changes global land use

- BAU

- CO2 Stabilization

- BAU tech.

## primary energy, CO2 stabilization

- Increasing general agricultural productivity increases biomass penetration

## H2 production—EJ/yr

- Biomass is an attractive input to h2 production.
- Climate change makes it more attractive

- BAU

- CO2 Stabilization

## Crop productivity and land-use CO2 emissions—million tons C/year

## Primary energy, Exajoules per year

- Carbon capture and disposal technology reduces the demand biomass energy

- Without CC&D

- With CC&D

## Carbon capture and disposal technology reduces the demand for land under CO2 stabilization

- Carbon capture and disposal technology reduces the demand for land under CO2 stabilization

- Without CC&D

- With CC&D

## H2 production—EJ/yr

- CC&D increases fossil fuel production of hydrogen.
- Biomass use as a hydrogen feedstock is relatively constant
- Biomass is valuable—it can produce negative emissions energy.

- Without CC&D

- With CC&D

## FINAL THOUGHTS

Energy efficiency and renewable energy are assumed to play a major role with or without climate change.
Climate change expands their roles.
Scale will be an important issue as these technologies deploy.
Renewable energy forms interact strongly with other technologies, including conservation, hydrogen, and CC&D.

- Energy efficiency and renewable energy are assumed to play a major role with or without climate change.
- Climate change expands their roles.
- Scale will be an important issue as these technologies deploy.
- Renewable energy forms interact strongly with other technologies, including conservation, hydrogen, and CC&D.

**Notes:**
The resources necessary to fuel a METHANE AGE exist.  But major challenges remain including:

Gas supply technology development to access unconventional gas resources and to transform other hydrocarbons to gas, at competitive prices, will be needed.
Technologies to address climate change, e.g. carbon capture and disposal and hydrogen systems, will also be essential to the Methane Age, and
The industry must manage a transition to an increasingly diversified portfolio of sources, uses, and customers for gas.