# Presentation: 187407

## 2008 

**2008 **
**Non-Geosynchronous**
**Orbits Commercial Space Transportation**
**Forecast**

- John Sloan
- Federal Aviation Administration
- Office of Commercial Space Transportation
- May 16, 2008

**Notes:**
john.sloan@faa.gov

## Introduction

- The FAA Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) forecast includes payloads open to internationally competed launch services procurement, other commercially sponsored payloads and commercially competed launch services for the International Space Station.
- Payloads that generate launch demand; not secondaries
- Market demand; not a prediction of actual launches

## New to the 2008 NGSO Forecast

- _Iridium_ 72 satellites (66 plus 6 spares), 12 total launches
- Current revenue is good, picking up some Globalstar customers, potentially more revenue from hosted payloads, and will select a satellite manufacturer in Spring 2009.
- New category: _Orbital Facility Assembly and Services_ (OFAS)
- Regular commercial supply flights for the International Space Station
- Estimate based on:  two launch providers, upmass capability of SpaceX’s Dragon and Orbital Sciences’ Cygnus, and the upmass model in the April 2008 NASA Request for Proposals document.
- Starts at 2, increasing to 4-5 launches per year
- COTS demonstration launches
- Bigelow Aerospace placeholder
- Bigelow will wait for a commercial vehicle capable of carrying people to orbit before launches of habitable modules.
- Could appear in a future forecast for launches of:
- Modules: Sundancer, a node/bus, and two BA-330 habitats
- Supply misions

## Satellite Forecast NGSO

**276 total satellites, increase of 45% vs. 2007 forecast of 191**
**     **Telecommunications is 53% of satellite market, Science/Other is 28%, Orbital
- Facility Assembly and Services is 10%, and Commercial Remote Sensing 9%.

## Launch Demand Forecast NGSO

-  Average increase of 3 launches per year vs 2007 forecast (from 8 to 11)
-  All new launches were Medium-Heavy class  (8.1 per year)
-  No new small launches in 2008 compared to 2007 (still 3 per year)

**112 launches**_** **_
**      **
**Increase of 38% compared to 2007 forecast**
-       vs. 81 in 2007
-       vs. 69 in 2006
-       vs. 64 in 2005
-       vs. 51 in 2004

## Sector Breakout

- _Telecommunications_ is half the market (148 satellites)
- but only 21.5% of the launch demand – multiple-manifesting.
- _Science_ is the only sector to decline from 2007:
- 44 launches in 2008 vs. 52 launches in 2007
-    --  mostly because of transfer of COTS
- launches into new OFAS category
- _OFAS_ schedule could change based on
- contract selection and technical readiness.

## Mass Distribution for Near-Term Satellites

- Iridium Next satellite mass is to be determined
- First generation satellites weigh 640 kg each
- Could launch 6 satellites at a time (72 total satellites)
- ORBCOMM Generation 2 mass estimate 130-150 kg each
- Could launch 6 satellites at a time (order of 18 satellites, up to 48 total)

## NGSO Near-Term Identified Manifest

## Notes and Trends

- Russia still leads with about 63% capture of the near-term NGSO launch services market (2008-2011).
- Environmental first stage debris concerns cited by Uzbekistan have delayed Russian Dnepr launch of Thailand’s THEOS remote sensing satellite.
- Dnepr could relocate back to Baikonur from Yasny (Domborovsky) launch site.
- Only one delayed launch from 2007 did not carryover into 2008.
- South Africa’s SumbandillaSat was on Russian Shtil.
- South Korea plans first launch of KSLV small vehicle by end of 2008.
- European Satellite Radio added to forecast.
- Has been developing slowly, Ondas Media (based in Madrid) leads competition.
- Impact of possible XM and Sirius satellite radio merger is unclear so the forecast leaves previous Sirius NGSO plans in place.
- No new telecommunications systems to compete against ORBCOMM, Iridium and Globalstar.

## Historical Launches and Forecast 2008-2017

**Historical Launches and Forecast 2008-2017**

- Sustained out-year activity in 2008 forecast