# Presentation: 938447

## Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions

- Prepared by
- Climate Prediction Center, NCEP
**January 8, 2008**

- _[http://](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/)__[www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/)__[/products/GODAS/](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/)_

## Outline

**Overview**
**Recent highlights**
**Pacific Ocean**
**Indian Ocean**
**Atlantic Ocean**
**GODAS and CFS SST Predictions**

## Overview

**Moderate-strength La Niña (ONI SST < -1C) persisted from SON to OND**
**CPC’s prognostic assessment: La Niña will continue into the Spring of 2008**
**Easterly wind anomaly and suppressed convection extended to the far western Pacific**
**Large intraseasonal variability in the extra-tropical North Pacific**
**Indian Ocean**
**Near normal SST presented in the tropical Indian Ocean**
**IOD index near normal**
**Moderate-strength MJO progressed from Africa to Maritime Continent**
**Above normal convection related to MJO activities**
**Atlantic Ocean**
**Near normal SST presented in the tropical Atlantic Ocean**
**Negative SST anomalies in south-western Atlantic persisted – forced by La Nina?**
**SST anomalies in the extra-tropical North Atlantic weakened**

_**Overview**_

## Global SST Anomaly (0C) and Anomaly Tendency

_**Global SST Anomaly (**__**0**__**C) and Anomaly Tendency**_

** ****Negative SSTA east of 160E-- a canonical horseshoe pattern in the Pacific**
** ****Near normal SST in Indian Ocean**
** ****Near Normal SST in tropical Atlantic**

** ****Negative SSTA weakened near 100W **
** ****SSTA in NH extra-tropics weakened**
** ****Positive SSTA near Java coast intensified**

## Pacific Ocean

## Recent Evolution of Pacific NINO SST Indices

_**Recent Evolution of Pacific NINO SST Indices**_

** ****All NINO indices persisted**
** ****CPC’s ENSO Prognostic Statement: OND ONI -1.2C, a moderate-strength La Nina persisted. The La Nina will continue into the spring of 2008.**

**Nino 1+2**

**Nino 3**

**Nino 4**

**Nino 3.4**

## Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST (oC), 850-mb Zonal Wind (m/s), 0-300m Heat Content (oC) and MJO Activity

_**Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST (oC), 850-mb Zonal Wind (m/s), 0-300m Heat Content (oC) and MJO Activity**_

** ****CPC’s MJO prognostic statement: Moderate MJO activity presented since late October**
** ****In December, MJO progressed from Africa to the maritime continent**
** ****Associated with the MJO, easterly wind anomalies intensified in the far western Pacific**

**TAO winds**

**Notes:**
Have a single plot?

## Depth-Longitude Section of Temperature Anomaly

_**Depth-Longitude Section of Temperature Anomaly**_

**x**

**TAO**

**GODAS**

**- East-west dipole pattern of temperature anomalies featuring La Nina conditions**
**- Temperature anomalies in GODAS are stronger than those of TAO, partially caused by diff. climatology base period**
**- Negative (positive) temperature anomalies moved westward (eastward) and became stronger than those in November**

**x**

**November**

**December**

**x**

**x**

## Recent Evolution of Heat Budget in NINO3.4 SST Anomaly

_**Recent Evolution of Heat Budget in NINO3.4 SST Anomaly**_

- Courtesy of Dr. Dongxiao Zhang

** ****Advective cooling in Dec. 2006 (MJO) followed by entrainment cooling in Jan. 2007**
** ****Advective and entrainment warming in May-Jul 2007 (MJO) delayed La Nina development**
** ****Advective cooling in Jul 2007 (MJO) followed by entrainment cooling in Aug-Oct 2007 led to La Nina development**
** ****Both advective and entrainment cooling weakened in December**

## Tropical Pacific: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx

_**Tropical Pacific: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx**_

** ****Reduced convection in the central and western Pacific**
** ****Easterly wind anomalies intensified, and extended westward to 120E**

## North Pacific: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx

_**North Pacific: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx**_

** ****Cooling near western coast of North America and warming in central North Pacific weaker than those in November.**
** ****Ekman transport/pumping and surface heat fluxes were likely the main external forcing**

**Notes:**
Make one plot... zero lines... OLR is probably not needed... R2 sensible and latent heat flux

## North America Western Coastal Upwelling

_**North**__** **__**America Western Coastal Upwelling**_

**Climatologically upwelling season progresses from March to July along the west coast of North America from 36****o****N to 57****o****N.**

**CPC, NCEP**

** ****Climatological downwelling prevails along the coast in December**
** ****Large intraseasonal variability since October**

## Indian Ocean

## Recent Evolution of Indian Ocean SST Indices

_**Recent Evolution of Indian Ocean SST Indices**_

**  ****SST are near normal in Indian Ocean**
**- IO Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is near normal**

## Tropical Indian: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx

** ****Above normal rainfall over most of Indian ocean due to MJO activities**
** ****Above normal SST near Java coast and Indonesian Passages**
** ****Below normarl surface heat flux, cooling the ocean**
** ****Westerly wind anomalies**

_**Tropical Indian: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx**_

**Notes:**
Make one plot ... zero lines

## Evolution of Equatorial/10oS Indian SST (oC), 850-mb Zonal Wind (m/s), 0-300m Heat Content (oC)

_**Evolution of Equatorial/10oS Indian SST (oC), 850-mb Zonal Wind (m/s), 0-300m Heat Content (oC)**_

** ****Moderate MJO activities**
** ****Westerly wind anomaly**
** ****Positive SST and HC anomalies near Java Coast**

## Atlantic Ocean

## Recent Evolution of Tropical Atlantic SST Indices

_**Recent Evolution of Tropical Atlantic SST Indices**_

**All  indices are near normal in December 2007**

## Tropical Atlantic: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx

_**Tropical Atlantic: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx**_

**- SST near normal in tropical Atlantic**
** ****Negative SSTA  between 10S and 20S persisted**

## North Atlantic: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx

_**North Atlantic: SST Anom., SST Anom. Tend., OLR, 850-mb Winds, Sfc Rad, Sfc Flx**_

** ****Large positive SST anomalies near 40N**
**- Negative surface heat flux anomalies contributed to SST cooling**

## CFS SST Predictions and Ocean Initial Conditions

## CFS Niño 3.4 SST Predictions from Different Lead Times

_**CFS Niño 3.4 SST Predictions from Different Lead Times**_

** ****Earlier onset of cold SST anomalies in spring**
** ****Reasonable SST forecast in August**
** ****SST forecast  biased towards cold since September**
** ****What cause the CFS cold bias?**

**Notes:**
Also look at the prediction of other prominent SST anomalies

## CFS biases in SST and wind 

**Obs****            IC=Jun          Jul              Aug              Sep            Oct**

**SST**

**Taux**

**- CFS forecasts from different I.C. are validated in November**
** ****SST forecasts from Sept and Oct I.C. biased cold in eastern Pacific**
** ****Consistent with cold SST biases, easterly wind anomalies extended too far east**

## Recent Evolution of Equatorial Far Eastern Pacific SST Biases, Vertical Velocity and D20 Anomaly

** ****Large negative SST biases east of 100W in spring of 2007, and Nov-Dec 2007**
** ****Likely related to anomalously strong upwelling at 50-meter depth**

_**Recent Evolution of Equatorial Far Eastern Pacific SST Biases, Vertical Velocity and D20 Anomaly**_

## Recent Evolution of GODAS Biases:Equatorial Surface (15 m) Zonal Current

**Too strong westward currents**

**Too strong westward currents**

_**Recent Evolution of GODAS Biases:**__**Equatorial Surface (15 m) Zonal Current**_

**Easterward current and westward wind anomaly may be caused by different climatological periods.**

**Climatological surface currents are westward since July**

**Eastward currents**

##  GODAS SSH anomalies have been consistently too low in the eastern Pacific since December 2006

** ****GODAS SSH anomalies have been consistently too low in the eastern Pacific since December 2006**
** ****GODAS SSH anomalies are about 6cm lower than those Altimetry SSH in December 2007 east of 140W**
** ****Negative subsurface temperature anomalies (-4C) in GODAS are probably too large, consistent with the differences between TAO and GODAS shown in slide 9.**

## Summary

**Moderate-strength La Niña (ONI SST < -1C) persisted from SON to OND**
**CPC’s prognostic assessment: La Niña will continue into the Spring of 2008**
**Easterly wind anomaly and suppressed convection extended to the far western Pacific**
**Large intraseasonal variability in the extra-tropical North Pacific**
**Indian Ocean**
**Near normal SST presented in the tropical Indian Ocean**
**IOD index near normal**
**Moderate-strength MJO progressed from Africa to Maritime Continent**
**Above normal convection related to MJO activities**
**Atlantic Ocean**
**Near normal SST presented in the tropical Atlantic Ocean**
**Negative SST anomalies in south-western Atlantic persisted – forced by La Nina?**
**SST anomalies in the extra-tropical North Atlantic weakened**

_**Summary**_

## Backup Slides

## Global SSH Anomaly and Anomaly Tendency

_**Global SSH Anomaly and Anomaly Tendency**_

** ****SSHA weakened in the far  eastern tropical Indian Ocean in December due to MJO-related westerly wind anomalies **

## SSH Anomaly (cm) v.s. SST Anomaly (0C) 

** ****Good consistency between SSH and SST in the equatorial latitudes**

## GODAS Equatorial X-Z Temperature

## Attribution of SST Anomaly in Northwest Atlantic

_**Attribution of SST Anomaly in Northwest Atlantic**_

**- NAO index has been positive since August**