# Presentation: 287390

## Naval Oceanography: Excellence in (Tropical) Meteorology

**Rear Admiral Dave Titley**
**Commander **
**Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command**
**Presented to**
**62****nd**** Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference**
**Charleston, SC**
**3 March 2008**

## Overview:Communications and Cooperation

**The United States Navy is committed to excellence in operational meteorology**
**Unless we keep the Fleet safe, nothing else really matters**
**We are ****interdependent with our partners**** and stakeholders**
**Part of the nation’s weather infrastructure**
**The Future is bright – and very different from the past**
**Forecasters:  Moving up the value chain**
**How we communicate our information**
**Ensembles ******** ****Risk management**
**Battlespace on Demand ********  **_**Decision Superiority**_
**Naval Oceanography – a great place to work!**

***We are the Navy’s Operational Science Community***

## Naval Oceanography

***KNOWLEDGE-CENTRIC***

***WARFIGHTING FOCUSED***

**Anti-Submarine Warfare**

**Naval Special Warfare**

**Mine Warfare**

**ISR**

**Navigation**

**Precise Time and Astrometry**

**Fleet Operations**

**Maritime Operations**

**Aviation Operations**

**FNMOC**

**NAVO**

**USNO**

***Naval Oceanography***
*** ******~$600M operating budget***
*** ******12 ships ***
***1950 military, 1350 civilians***

**CUS**

**Naval Oceanography**

*** ******Teamwork***
*** ******Technical Excellence***
*** ******Clear Communications***

*** ******Manage Risk***
*** ******Measure Results***
*** ******Continuous Improvement***

## Naval Meteorology

**Numerical Wx Prediction**
**Maritime / Polar**
**Aviation**

**Tropical Cyclone Forecasts**
**Fleet Operations**
**Expeditionary**

## Global
Regional / Relocatable
Aerosol / Dispersion
Tropical Cyclone
Coupled Wave and Ocean
Ensembles
Information Assurance
Tight R&D      Ops Connection	

**Global**
**Regional / Relocatable**
**Aerosol / Dispersion**
**Tropical Cyclone**
**Coupled Wave and Ocean**
**Ensembles**
**Information Assurance**
**Tight R&D      Ops Connection****	**

***Numerical Weather Prediction***

## Joint Typhoon Warning Center

**26 TC’s**

**6 TC’s**

**24 TC’s**

** ****35 – 40% decrease in track errors over past 10 years**
** ****72 hour track error < 150 nm in 2007**
** ****Used by NWS for Guam, Saipan**

** ****56 Tropical Cyclones warned on in 2007**

## Communication

***Communication***

***“******Paradox of Accuracy”***
*** ****Better warnings may not equate to less damage*
* **How to best communicate  probabilistic information?*
***The Weather Research Challenge***
* **Track + Intensity + Structure + Coupling = Better Sea, Swell & Storm Surge Fcsts*

***The Communications Research Challenge***
*** ****Storm vs. Tropical Storm, **  Gale vs. Tropical Gale, etc.*
* **TC COR ambiguity - “Hazardous vs.*
* **Destructive  vs.*
*Hurricane Winds”*

***“******Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”***
***	******-Albert Einstein***

## Safety Operations

_**Officers**_**      **_**Chiefs**_**      **_**Junior Enlisted**_**         **_**Civilians**_

_**Total**_

***Safety Operations***

- Smart:
-  Sensing
-  Forecasting / Automation
-  Communications
-  Partnering
-  NWS
-  USAF
-  Other Countries

- $300B of Ships, A/C and Shore Assets

## Partnerships

***Partnerships***

**Navy values the partnerships and ****interdependence**** with NOAA, the USAF, academia and industry in meteorology – we can’t do this alone!**
**JTWC  ... A success story for over 50 years**
**USAF Satellite and forecasting expertise**
**National Weather Service forecasts are the backbone of the Navy’s installation resource protection program.**
**5 Day TC forecasts**
**NWS investment in Advanced TC Forecaster (ATCF)**
**Participation in next generation national weather forecast model with NOAA and USAF**
**Navy contributes a key numerical forecast member to the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast ensemble.**
**ATCF, Sat Viewer**
**International**

## The Future

**Big Changes for NOGAPS in 2008/9**
**Semi-Lagrangian (T239L30 ******** T479L60)**
**4DVAR (NAVDAS – AR)**
**Ensembles (NAEFS, migrate to EKTF, WW3 w/ NCEP)**
**WW3 Upgrades**
**CPU Upgrade at Monterey (1.4 TFLOPS ******** 22 TFLOPS)**
**People**
**Contracting out observing functions at Naval Air Stations**
**B.S. Marine Meteorology for qualified Sailors**
**In-house forecasting training**
**Ensembles & Communication**
**Typhoon forecasts**
**Experiments**
**NRL Probabilistic Prediction Research                                                     Office (PRO)**

## People + Technology

**Partnering with the Science, Technology, and Research and Development communities to:**
**Maximize operational impact**
**Minimize time to transition into our skilled workforce**
**Increased model skill – ****an opportunity to do our job differently**
**Automate first guess for enroute ship forecasts and routes**
**Automate environmental impact assessment – provides rapid  situational awareness**
**Training and education of skilled 21****st**** century weather forecasters**
**How to best use ensembles**
**How to best use forecast information to inform decision-makers**
**In combat**
**In risk-management**
**In civilian applications (e.g., Next-Gen)**

## Summary

**Navy remains committed to excellence in meteorology**
**Increasing focus on leveraging partnerships with NOAA, USAF and international stakeholders**
**Participation in next generation national forecast model (NUOPC)**
**Ocean forecasting**
**Defining the role of the 21****st**** century forecaster**
**Battlespace on Demand**
**Rapid transition advanced S&T discoveries into operations**
**We are hiring!**
**There is opportunity                                                          everywhere we look – in the tropical field!**

## Questions?

***Questions?***