# Presentation: 906354

## 

High Resolution 
Digital Weather Forecasts

Glenn Austin & Chris Alex
National Weather Service
Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services

ANNSTLF Users Meeting
Electric Power Research Institute
Washington D.C.
June 21, 2007

**High Resolution **
**Digital Weather Forecasts**
**Glenn Austin & Chris Alex**
**National Weather Service**
**Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services**
**ANNSTLF Users Meeting**
**Electric Power Research Institute**
**Washington D.C.**
**June 21, 2007**

## Outline

**Need and Concept for Digital Forecasts**
**Forecast Process **
**National Digital Forecast Database**
***Description***
***Standards***
***Elements***
***Plans***
**Examples**
**Accuracy**
**Contacts for more information**

## Why Digital Forecasts?

**More sophisticated customers**
**Greater demand for faster access to information**
**New formats requested**
**NRC recommendation***** –***** “Provide data and products in digital form.” (Fair Weather Report; June 2003)**
**Modern technologies provide new information exchange pathways**
**Web Services**
**XML**
**GRIB2, html (with decoding to shapefiles, etc)**
**Graphical**

## NWS Digital Services Gives Customers What They Want

**More weather data **
**Higher resolution forecasts**
**Visual displays of probability**
**User-defined  products create business opportunities**

**Different Products for Different Customers**

- TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

***The public, emergency managers and city planners use ******WWW. graphic products for detailed forecasts***

***Commercial weather companies & emergency managers use grids to generate tailored products***

***Radio stations & public read text forecasts***

**Notes:**
This new process provides numerous benefits to our partners and customers.  With a digital forecast database, the NWS can easily expand the range of product types to respond to evolving technological capabilities, from text to graphic to gridded information.  Valuable data will be available on demand to satisfy diverse customer needs and provide new business opportunities for the private sector.  Probability of occurrence information in visual and digital form supports informed, risk-based decisions for emergency managers, and allows citizens to take actions to mitigate the dangers posed by severe storms and floods.

By working together with our customers and partners through this new forecasting process we will collectively produce weather information that helps keep Americans safe and helps businesses prosper.

## Traditional Forecasting Process

**Traditional Forecasting Process**

**Schedule Driven**
**Product Oriented**
**Labor Intensive**

**National Centers****Generate Graphical Products**

**National Centers**** ****Model Guidance**

**Field Offices****Type Text Products**

- TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

- MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
- EASTON
- PTCLDY	CLOUDY	PTCLDY	PTCLDY	SUNNY	PTCLDY60/52	63/54	65/47	55/40	55/37	50/33POP 20	POP 20	POP 20	POP 20	POP 10	POP 10

***U.S. Drought Monitor***

***Excessive Heat Products***

***Threats Assessments***

**Notes:**
Here’s how we traditionally create forecasts.  Weather models produce guidance for meteorologists at local offices and national centers.  Forecasters at our national centers generate a variety of graphical products, and experts at each local office type text products and weather element forecasts for specific locations.  With this process, the NWS and our partners and customers are wedded to fixed product formats and schedules.  Also, even if our forecasters understand the details of a weather event at higher resolution (in space and time), they are unable to express the full content of this information to the public in words.

## New Forecasting Process

**User-Generated Products**

**New Forecasting Process**

**Interactive**
**Collaborative**
**Information Oriented**

**NWS Automated Products**

**Text**

**Graphic**

**Digital**

**Voice**

- TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

**National Digital ****Forecast**** Database**

**Local Digital ****Forecast**** Database**

**Field ****Offices**

**National ****Centers**

**Collaborate**

***Data and Science Focus***

**National Centers**** Model Guidance**

**High Resolution Grids**

**Notes:**
The new forecasting process addresses these previous shortcomings and limitations. With this new forecast process, they can produce text, high resolution gridded products and graphics.

Our forecasters will now focus on data and science, rather than product generation and formats.  Weather models and data processing tools produce weather element forecasts, such as temperature, rainfall, wind, and clouds on high resolution grids. 

We have a true collaborative activity between national centers and local weather offices.  Forecasters at our national centers coordinate important changes to weather element grids with our local offices.   Experts at each local NWS office fine tune weather grids to account for terrain, land use patterns, population density, and sources of moisture.  

We maintain a consistent, high resolution, and easily accessible national digital forecast database updated on a frequent basis for use by both the public and private sectors.

## National Digital Forecast Database

**NDFD has been operational since 2004**
**Domains: **
***CONUS***
***Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin islands***
***16 pre-defined sub-sectors***
**Information available electronically:**
***Pull via Electronic Dissemination Services over Internet***
***Push via dedicated line (cost-recovery fee)***
***XML Web Service and Web Feature Service***
***Web-based Graphics***
***GIS Compatible Formats***
***Online Archive Access System***

**Notes:**
NOAA’s NWS successfully met its strategic goal by making forecast information available in digital form beginning in 2004. With the addition of Alaska forecasts in 2006, NDFD now includes digital forecasts for the entire nation.

## Database Standards

***Local forecast updates are event-driven***
***Mandatory local update at 2200 UTC (6 pm EDT)***
***NDFD is updated hourly***
***Spatial resolution:***
**5 km for the CONUS**
**2.5 km for Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico & the Virgin Islands**
**6 km for Alaska **
***Temporal resolution varies by element***
***UTC time convention followed***

**Notes:**
Attributes for the local database include:

## Elements in NDFD and Their Status(as of June 2007)

***Experimental elements:***
**Quantitative Precipitation Forecast**
**Snow Amount**
**Sky Cover**
**Wind Gust**
**Convective Outlook Hazard Probabilities**
*Convective Hazard Outlook*
*Probability of Tornadoes*
*Probability of Hail*
*Probability of Damaging Thunderstorm Winds*
*Probability of Extreme Tornadoes*
*Probability of Extreme Hail*
*Probability Extreme Thunderstorm Winds*
*Total Probability of Severe Thunderstorms*
*Total Probability of Extreme Severe Thunderstorms*

***Operational elements:***
**Maximum Temperature**
**Minimum Temperature**
**Temperature**
**Dew Point**
**Probability of Precipitation**
**Weather**
**Wind Direction**
**Wind Speed**
**Apparent Temperature **
**Relative Humidity**
**Significant Wave Height**
**Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speeds****	**

**Notes:**
Note: Some variability exists in the status of forecast elements for particular regions of the country. The latest status of the elements is available online at www.weather.gov/ndfd/

## Products Under Development

***Climate Outlooks:***
**Probability of 8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Above/Below Normal**
**Probability of 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Above/Below Normal**
**Probability of 90 Day Temperature and Precipitation Above/Below Normal**

**Notes:**
... Climate Prediction Center.

## NDFD Evolution: Focus on High Impact Services

*Add experimental WFO Hazardous Weather grids*
*Increase temporal resolution of many elements in NDFD to one hour*
*Increase grid-spacing resolution to 2.5 km for CONUS*
*Add experimental Fire Weather grids*
*Add experimental Aviation grids*

**Notes:**
A 2005 survey of customers revealed a strong desire from the public for more information on hazardous weather. Thus, before the end of 2007, we will begin to implement the next phase of NDFD-based services. This next phase will focus on increasing the spatial and temporal resolution of the digital database as well as implement new information that will help first responders and others. These enhancements will be designed to compliment the NWS Service Evolution initiative. 

## Sample NDFD National Data

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## Sample NDFD Data

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## Accuracyhttp://www.weather.gov/ndfd/verification/

## More Information

***	******	*****http://www.weather.gov/ndfd**
**NDFD Elements and Associated Temporal Resolution**
**NDFD Element Status Table**
**How to Access the Data**
*Free GRIB2 Decoder & Documentation*
*Tutorials*
*Using NDFD in GIS Environment*
**Customer Information:**
*Product  Description Documents*
*Notices of Changes (aka TINs)*
*Links to customer surveys*
*Real-time 24x7 customer support  for data access*
**Plans for Upcoming Changes**
**Access to Archived NDFD Data**

## Contacts

**nws.ndfd@noaa.gov**
**Contacts:**
**glenn.austin@noaa.gov **
**301-713-1858 x 150**
**christine.alex@noaa.gov**
**301-713-1858 x 171**

**Contacts**