# Presentation: 177371

## U.S. EPAGlobal Change Research Program:Getting the Job Done Right

**Board of Scientific Counselors**
*U.S. Environmental Protection Agency*
*Global Change Research Program*
- Washington, DC – September 27, 2005

**Kenneth A. Colburn**
**Symbiotic Strategies, LLC**
***kcolburn@symbioticstrategies.com***
***617-784-6975***

## Speaker Background

- Business & Industry Association of NH, 	Energy & Environment
- New Hampshire’s Air Director
- First GHG registry & power sector “4-P” laws.
- STAPPA Climate Chair
- Represented states at UNFCCC COPs last 10 years.
- NESCAUM Executive Director
- Center for Climate Strategies, etc.
- Climate planning processes: CT, ME, AZ, NM, NC...

## GCRP:  How’s It Doing?  (How)

- Cornerstone for effective state & local decisions:  *“If it’s not specific to here, it’s marginally useful.”*
- “Place-Based” state-specific approaches are the *sine qua non* for state & local decision making.
- What information do decision makers need?    *Talk with them! *(i.e., need stakeholder orientation)
- Some education often needed, but not one way!
- Creates upward spiral:  *Stakeholder questions & input => better assessments => more questions & input...*

- GCRP:  How’s It Doing?  ***(How)***

## GCRP:  How’s It Doing?  (What)

- Areas of focused assessment are very sound:
- Air Quality
- Water Quality
- Human Health
- Ecosystems
- But... We don’t only want static assessments; *“Teach us to fish...”*
- Leverage, empower decision makers with tools and models

##  Climate Risks ...

- Defense
- (Respond)

- Offense
- (Lead)

-  Climate Risks ...

- Climate
- Impacts

## Example: Energy Opportunities

**ECONOMIC**
**EFFICIENCY**

***Lower***

***Higher***

**TIME**

**Notes:**
– Add QOL...

## Competitive Advantage Example 

- Who will be first “out of” paper, and “into” furniture?
- UK has PRECIS; EU has PRUDENCE; Quebec has OURANOS; what do U.S. states have to “tune” their economies?

**Notes:**
– Similar impact on the jarrah forests in West Australia?

## Vital Missing Tool: Integrated Modeling Framework for Air Quality

## Vital Missing Tool: Integrated Modeling Framework for Air Quality

- Vital Missing Tool: Integrated Modeling Framework for Air Quality

## CMAQ

**CMAQ**

**COBRA & BenMAP**

**NE-MARKAL**

**REMI? IMPLAN?**

## Key Conclusions (1)

- GCRP is right-on-the-money with *How*; *What.*
- Place-based approach
- Stakeholder orientation
- Areas of focused assessment
- Development of / support for air quality, health, energy, and economic models
- Bottom line:  *“When decision makers recognize that they need more info, you’re doing the right thing...”*

- Key Conclusions (1)

**Notes:**
– People don’t care how much you know until they know how much you care...

## Key Conclusions (2)

- More assessments
- Impact of climate change on air quality, especially ozone & PM nonattainment
- Non-linear responses scare us greatly
- More models, modeling
- Economic modeling
- Adaptation options modeling
- Environmental health tracking
- Broader application & communication
- Greater Level of Effort => More Resources, *but there’s literally no more important or productive effort underway. *

- Key Conclusions (2)

## Thank Youfor Your Timeand Attention!

## Is It Working in the States?

- Look at Connecticut (partial list):
- CGA approved 2005 CT Climate Action Plan.
- Clean cars (Pavley/LEV) & hybrid tax incentives.
- Mandatory reporting, registry & inventory.
- Energy Independence Act – EE, RE, CHP, DG, etc.
- RPS & renewable energy purchases.
- Energy efficiency standards for appliances.
- Environmentally preferable products.
- Agriculture, land preservation & local food.
- NG Conservation Fund (proposed).
- Oil Conservation Fund (proposed).
- Diesel reductions (being proposed).

## NE-MARKAL 

- Why MARKAL:
- Readily available
- Multi-sector and expandable
- Flexible with respect to setting up a regional framework and user-imposed constraints
- Approach:
- Stakeholder involvement
- Provide clear understanding of MARKAL (Structure, data requirements, use of model)
- Transparent process

**Notes:**
– Connecticut’s leadership is evident in at least three dimensions:  (1) the climate policies that it has enacted; (2) the extent to which other states are copying its approaches; and (3) the recognition that the State has received for its climate actions.

## Vital Missing Tool: Integrated Modeling Framework for Air Quality

- Vital Missing Tool: Integrated Modeling Framework for Air Quality

- Energy Model

- Health Benefits Model

- Health
- Effects
- Incidence &
- Cost-
- Benefit

-  Health/Valuation
- Function

- Regional-Scale
- (or Finer)
- Climate Models

- Climate
- Impacts Models

- Costs,
- Benefits, &
- Adaptations
- due to
- Climate
- Change

- Global Climate
- Models

- Emissions

- Economic Model

- Key
- Economic
- Indicators

- Expenditures

- Policy Goal

- Air Quality Model

- Ambient
- Concentrations
- & Temp

- Meteorology

**Notes:**
– Note “Air Quality Model” is new too:  Comprehensive Model for Air Quality (?) – “one atmosphere” vs. several air quality MODELS (plural) – judos for this too.
– Reflect on KAC’s 2002 USCCSP Strategic Plan Workshop gripes about regional impacts.
– Cite PRUDENCE, OURANOS, etc. “Tuning the economy”
– Note:  This graphic reflects an air policy focus, so it omits other key impacts, like infrastructure (CSOs, seawalls, etc.), vector-borne health impacts, etc.

## Key MARKAL features

- Bottom-up, technology rich approach
- Essential for assessing programs where technological change is key
- Coherent and transparent framework
- Data assumptions are open and each result may be traced to its technological cause.
- Flexible
- Easy to modify technology and energy system descriptions to represent local conditions, energy and environmental policies, and "what if" scenarios
- Long history (>20 years) of widespread use (>50 countries)

## NE-MARKAL Development Sequence

- Identify priority questions to be addressed
- Baseline (1999) Technology Characterization/Demands
- Resource and power imports/exports
- Calibration
- Future technology and demand projections
- Complete baseline simulation