# Presentation: 097224

## Progress on Science Activities in 2007Climate Forecast Products Team

**CPC Products List **
** ****RISA POC Projects, Personnel, and Products**
**NDFD**
**Question CPC/POC Need to Answer**
**Proposed Products**

**Edward O’Lenic**
**Chief, Operations Branch, CPC**

- CTB-SAB meeting August 28, 2007

## RISA-POC Activities

**CTB has engaged the Climate Applications Community to identify user needs, and to **_**accelerate the transition**_** of relevant research into CPC products.  **
**CPC is developing an inventory of its current operational products and their future direction.**
**CTB/CPC RISA POCs are developing lists of proposed future products, and services.**

## Inventory of CPC Official Products                              3 MONTH OUTLOOK

| Product Name | Product Components | Input Data | Freq. Issued | Performance Measure / Verification  | Users & Uses | #  of Web Hits | Planned Improvements |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| US Three-Month Probabilistic Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks 
(Three month seasons out to 1 year) | 13 images and grids for  US Temperature
13 images and grids for  US Precipitation
NDFD elements for probability of above and below normal/median         temperature/ precipitation for each of 13 leads | Dynamical tools (CFS, multi-model ensembles)
Statistical tools (SMLR, CCA, OCN, ENSO composites) 
Inter-agency tools (IRI, ESRL, Scripps).  
ENSO Outlook | Monthly | Performance (GPRA) Measure: Heidke Skill Score for US Temp
Verification: gridded station data | Public/private decision makers for economic & business planning 
(Top Users: Energy, Agriculture, Retail, H2O Resources, Commodities, Public) | Available | Improved tools and consolidation
Additional objective verification & performance measures
User feedback on desired format  (e.g. GIS) and user interface
Inclusion of distribution information as NDFD elements |
| US Three Month Outlook Discussion | 1 text document | As above | Monthly | Subjective user feedback | Public/private  users with technical background | Available | User feedback on forecast |
| Hawaiian Three Month Outlooks and Discussion | Images and grids
1 text document | As above | Monthly | Verification: gridded station data
Subjective user feedback  | As Above | Available | As above |

## Inventory of CPC Official Products                       Hurricane Outlooks

| Product Name | Product Components | Input Data | Freq. Issued | Performance Measure / Verification  | Users & Uses | #  of Web Hits | Planned Improvements |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
(Jun-Nov) | 1 text document
# of Named Storms;             
# of Hurricanes; 
# of Major Hurricanes;
ACE Index
 | Dynamical tools (CFS seasonal forecasts)
Statistical tools
ENSO Outlook | Twice per year
(May;  August update) | Verification: 
# of Named Storms;   
# of Hurricanes; 
# of Major Hurricanes
ACE Index | Public/private decision makers for economic & business planning 
( Emergency  Mgmt; Insurance Industry,  Public) | Available
 | Improved tools and consolidation
User feedback on desired format |
| Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook
(Jun-Nov) | 1 text document
# of Named Storms;             
# of Hurricanes;
 # of Major Hurricanes

 | Dynamical tools (CFS seasonal forecasts)
Statistical tools
ENSO Outlook | As above | Verification: 
# of Named Storms;   
# of Hurricanes; 
# of Major Hurricanes | As above | Available | Improved tools and consolidation
User feedback on desired format
 |

## Inventory of CPC Official Products                            1 MONTH OUTLOOKS 

| Product Name | Product Components | Input Data | Freq. Issued | Performance Measure / Verification  | Users & Uses | #  of Web Hits | Planned Improvements |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| US One-Month Probabilistic Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks | 2 images and grids for US Temperature

2 images and grids for US Precipitation.
NDFD elements for probability of above and below normal/median         temperature/ precipitation | Dynamical tools (CFS, multi-model ensembles)
Statistical tools (SMLR, CCA, OCN, ENSO composites) 
Inter-agency tools (IRI, ESRL, Scripps).  
ENSO Outlook | Twice per month
(middle & end of previous month) | Verification: gridded station data | Public/private decision makers for economic & business planning
(Top Users: Energy, Agriculture, Retail, H2O Resources, Commodities, Public) | Available | Improved tools and consolidation
Additional objective verification & performance measures
User feedback on desired format  (e.g. GIS) and user interface
Inclusion of distribution information as NDFD elements |
| US One Month Outlook Discussion | 1 text document 
  | As above | As above | Subjective user feedback | Public/private decision makers with technical background for insight into 1-mo fcsts | Available | User feedback on forecast |

## Inventory of CPC Official Products                                   6-10/8-14 Day Outlooks

| Product Name | Product Components | Input Data | Freq. Issued | Performance Measure / Verification  | Users / Uses | #  of Web Hits | Planned Improvements |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6-10/8-14 Day Probabilistic Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks | 4 images and grids for US Temperature and Precipitation
NDFD elements for probability of above and below normal/median         temperature/ precipitation  | Dynamical Tools (GFS, NAEFS)
Statistical Tools  (Klein, Analog, Neural Net) | Daily | Performance Measure: Heidke Skill Score; Ranked Probability Skill Score
Verification: gridded station data | Public/private decision makers for economic & business planning | Available | Objective skill based blend weighting. 
Additional tools, skill measures.
Inclusion of 8-14-day distribution information as NDFD elements |
| 6-10/8-14 Day Mean North American 500 HPA Outlook | 2 images and grids | Dynamical Tools (GFS, ECMWF, Canadian) 
Statistical Tools | Daily | Anomaly correlations for Northern Hemisphere, North America, and US/CAN | Public/private decision makers with technical background for economic & business planning | Available | Objective skill based blend weighting.
Additional dynamical models. |
| 6-10/8-14 Day Outlook Discussion | 1 text discussion
  | As above | Daily | None | As above | Available | Increased Collaboration
Increased manhour resources |

**Inventory of CPC Official Products                                   6-10/8-14 Day Outlooks**

## Inventory of CPC Official Products                       Hazards Assessments / Heat Index

| Product Name | Product Components | Input Data | Freq. Issued | Performance Measure / Verification  | Users & Uses | #  of Web Hits | Planned Improvements |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 to 14 Day Hazards Assessment | 3 images | Heavy precip climos, IR animations, CPC MJO reports, CPC ENSO Bulletins, SPC Convective Outlooks, Gridded Precip OBS, CPC 6-10/8-14 Day Outlooks/Heat Index/Wind Chill, HPC short range outlooks | Daily (Except weekend) | Hit rate, threat score, probability of detection, false alarm rate, bias | Emergency managers, private industry and public  for mitigation of potentially hazardous events | Available | Probability maps of extreme temperature, precipitation, severe weather, and other, variables. |
| 3 to 14 Day Hazards Discussion | 1 text document
 | 3 to 14 Day Hazards Assessment | Daily | Subjective user feedback
 | As above | Available | User feedback via weekly telephone conference call |
| 6-10/8-14 Day Maximum Heat Index Prediction | 2 images | CADB Hourly & Daily OBS, GFS Ensembles (2m temp gempak grids), ascii station climos [1971-2000] | Daily | Subjective user feedback
 | Heath officials & local emergency managers for health risk mitigation | Available | Based upon verification and user feedback
 |

## Inventory of CPC Official Products                         Diagnostic Discussions & Bulletins 

| Product Name | Product Components | Input Data | Freq. Issued | Performance Measure / Verification  | Users & Uses | #  of Web Hits | Planned Improvements |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| ENSO Diagnostic Discussion | 1 text document 
  | ENSO monitoring images (SST Anoms, upper ocean heat anoms, subsurface temp anoms).  Statistical and dynamic model fcst ensembles (IRI Plume), CPC Consolidated SST, Weekly CPC ENSO Reports | monthly | Oceanic Nino Index | Technical support of climate outlooks / public & private decision makers w technical background | Available | Include ENSO Alert Classification System |
| Climate Diagnostics Bulletin | ~75 text images and grids | Tropics Indices & Plots (SLP, SOI, zonal  wind, OLR, SST).  Extratropics plots (temp, precip, heights, SLP, storm tracks, ozone).   | monthly | None | Insights into climate outlooks / decision makers with technical background | Available | Oceanic and atmospheric monitoring products 
Intraseasonal monitoring |
| Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin |  |  | weekly |  |  |  |  |

## RISAs,  POCs, Activities

| RISA | Contacts | Area of Collaboration |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) | Muthuvel Chelliah
Jim Jones, Keith Ingram, Jim O’Brien | Downscaling CPC Outlooks,  Regional ENSO Impacts; Crop Yield Forecasting; Applications of high resolution GCM,CFS hindcasts. |
| Western Water Assessment (WWA) | Michelle L’Heureux
Andrea Ray | Decision support for drought mitigation and water management. |
| Climate Assessments for the Southwest (CLIMAS) | Ed O’Lenic
Holly Hartmann | Improve users’ ability to access and interact with, and make decisions based upon CPC outlooks. |
| Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP) | Jon Gottschalck
Daniel Whitehead, Sarah Fleisher Trainor, James Partain | Storm Track Monitoring, Assessment, and development of prediction-related products on weekly, monthly and seasonal time scales |
| California Application Program (CAP) | Kingtse Mo
Dan Cayan, John Roads | Soil moisture analyses from 4 NLDASs and regional reanalysis, CFS-based drought forecasts, MME applications to SI forecasts, week 1, week 2 E, P, soil moisture relationships from NLDAS. |
| University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System (CSES) | Doug LeComte
Dennis Lettenmaier | Enhancements to U.W. surface water monitor, Improved tools for Drought Monitor and Drought Outlook. |

## NDFD: Product Delivery Super Highway

**NDFD is the National Digital Forecast Database.   It was developed in response to a National Research Council (NRC) recommendation (2003) that NWS make its data and products available in digital form, using widely recognized standards.  The NDFD Concept of Operations has three main precepts:**
**1.  The NWS Weather Forecast Office forecaster is the local expert/decision-maker.**
**2.  Optimization of information flow between NWS and partners/customers.**
**3.  Collaboration among NWS components in building the NDFD.**
**4.  Formats available: FTP, http, XML, GML**
**NDFD vastly improves the accessibility of NWS products to the user community.**

**User **
**Community**

**R&D **
**Community**

**OPERATIONS**
**NDFD**

**1**

**3**

**EMC**
**CFS**

**5**

- O2R

- R2O

**4**

**CTB**
**CPC**

## Questions CPC/POC should answer

**1.  How do we make the O2R process reliable and formal? **
**2.  What is the metric for “accelerate transition of research into operations”?**
**3.  NDFD applies to FORECAST products.  What about other products?**
**4.  What other variables should be predicted?  Should we make circulation forecasts?  Should ENSO SST be included?  Should the forecast be divided between the inter-annual and trend components (for the 3-month outlooks)?**
**5.  What other questions should we be asking?**

## Proposed New Products

**Climatological distribution information, including mean and standard deviation, probability of certain thresholds, limits associated with the 50% and 95% confidence intervals of the forecast and climatology (on NDFD).**** **
**Prototype forecasts for weeks 3, 4 using consolidation of forecasts from CFS, LIM and other available models with skill histories.**
**New ability to assess week 2, 3, 4 extreme event hazards for use in U.S. Hazards and Global Hazards Assessments**
**Experimental probabilistic seasonal drought outlook**
**Experimental implementation of probabilistic precipitation forecast tool in the U.S. Hazards Assessment**
**Interactive crop yield, drought mitigation, water management and cost/loss tools.**

## End