# Presentation: 664580

## LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR

**Energy Information Administration**

**National Association for Business Economics**
**September 25, 2005**
**Chicago, IL**

***LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR***
***U.S. ENERGY MARKETS***

## West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price, 2004-2006

**(dollars per barrel)**

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2005*

- History

- Projections

## Natural Gas Spot Price, 2004-2006

**(dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2005*

- History

- Projections

## Annual Energy Outlook 2005 indicates that

**over the next two decades....**

**U.S. energy demand will grow at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent**

**The energy efficiency of the economy will increase at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent**

**Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies will depend on **
**unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports**

**The real price of electricity will drop from 7.4 cents to a low of 6.7 cents in 2011 before reaching 7.4 cents per kilowatthour again in 2025**

**U.S. oil import dependency will grow from 56 percent to 58 percent**

**Carbon dioxide emissions will grow at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent**

**The world oil price, measured as the refiner acquisition cost of imported crude, will reach $48 per barrel, in 2003 dollars, using  the *****AEO2005***** scenario with the highest price assumption**

## World Oil Price, 1970-2025

**(2003 dollars per barrel)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

**$27.73**

**$30.31**

**$48.00**

**$35.00**

## U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2025 (quadrillion Btu)**

**27%**

**30%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of

**Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2025 (index, 1970 = 1)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2025

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**Petroleum**

**Nonhydropower Renewables**

**Hydropower**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,

**U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,**
**2003 and 2025 (quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Petroleum Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**U.S. Petroleum Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,**
**1960-2025 (million barrels per day)**

**56%**

**58%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Crude Oil  Production by Source, 1970-2025

**(million barrels per day)**

**Lower-48 Onshore**

**Alaska**

**Lower-48 Offshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2025

**(million barrels per day)**

**Industrial**

**Transportation**

**Residential and Commercial**

**Electric Power**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2025

**(2003 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

**$4.98**

**$5.32**

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2025 (trillion cubic feet)**

**15%**

**20%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, 1990 - 2025 (trillion cubic feet)

**Alaska**

**Lower-48 Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Lower-48 Non-Associated Offshore**

**Lower-48 Associated-Dissolved**

**Lower-48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2025(trillion cubic feet)

- History

**Industrial*******

**Electric Generators**

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Transportation****

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

-  * Includes lease and plant fuel

- ** Includes pipeline fuel

## U.S. Average Electricity Price, 1970-2025

**(2003 cents per kilowatthour)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

**7.4**

**7.4**

## U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1970-2025

**(billion kilowatthours)**

**Petroleum**

**Renewables**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel Type, 2001-2025 (gigawatts)

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## Nuclear Outlook

**All existing nuclear plants will continue operating through 2025**
**While new nuclear plants are not expected, nuclear capacity will grow as existing plants are upgraded**
**Between 2003 and 2025, 3,500 megawatts of capacity upgrades added**
**Nuclear generation increases by 66 billion kilowatthours, or 9 percent, between 2003 and 2025**
**The nuclear share of electricity generation declines from 20 percent in 2003 to 14 percent in 2025**
**Natural gas, coal, and renewable technologies are expected to be the most competitive options for meeting growing electricity needs**

## U.S. Nuclear Capacity in Three Cases(thousand megawatts)

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2025

**U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2025**
**(million metric tons)**

**6,528 in 2010**

**8,029 in 2025**

**Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2025**
**(metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)**

**501 in 2010**

**396 in 2025**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

**5,789 in 2003**

**558 in 2003**

## Energy issues to consider....

**Does the current level of world crude oil prices represent**
**a new equilibrium price?**

**How much LNG supply can be expected by U.S. markets?**

**Can the current high level of U.S. natural gas prices be**
**sustained?**

**Will coal continue to play a dominant role in U.S. electricity**
**generation?**
**What is the potential for nuclear and renewable energy**
**sources?**

**What role will Canadian natural gas imports play in the**
**future in meeting U.S. energy requirements?**