# Presentation: 076259

## Scenario Development and Risk-Based Decision Support

- Moderator:   John Houghton (DOE)
- Overview:  Henry Jacoby  (MIT)
- Rapporteurs:
- Claudia Nierenberg (NOAA)
- Joel Scheraga (EPA)
- Panelists:
- Eric Barron  (Pennsylvania State University)
- Paul Craig (Sierra Club)
- Philip Mote (University of Washington)
- Bob Corell (Harvard, AMS)

## Why the Need for the CCRI

**Policymakers & Managers**

**Climate Research**

**Mitigation**

**Adaptation**

**Why the Need for the CCRI**

**USGCRPOther US Global**

## Summary of CCRI Structure

**USGCRPOther US Global**

**Policymakers& Managers**

**Climate Research**

**Mitigation**

**Adaptation**

**Scenario Developm’t**

**Impacts Analysis**

**Applied Climate Modeling**

**Summary of CCRI Structure**

## Key Observations	

- The voice of the science community is evident in the strategic plan
- The importance of connecting science to decision makers is prominent
- The CCSPO Strategic Plan sets the stage for a new approach: integrating **R**esearch, **O**bservations, **A**ssessment and **D**ecision **S**upport (The **ROADS** Strategy)
- Moving from a problem identification strategy to a more solutions-oriented strategy

## Observations

- Research
- How to elicit opinions
- Tool development
- Not all is research
- institution-building
- new apparatus
- not policy analysis
- Move to strategic plan from visions

## Challenges in Providing Decision Support

- Need a generalized, flexible capability
- not really a 2-4 year problem
- “Horses for courses”
- Importance of uncertainty analysis
- Capability is diffuse ... & diverse
- Organizational issues
- integration/separation of functions (?)
- Managing the “new working arrangements”
- Meeting short-term goals while creating long-term capability

## Challenges in Providing Decision Support

**Assessments** must be:
- credible
- salient
- legitimate
**Methods, models and tools:** Shy away from tendency to focus on only a few of the rich array
**Scenarios:**  Need to look at wide array of scenarios – not limited to scenario-driven climate models
- Integrating science insights and knowledge from other sources (*e.g.,* indigenous perspectives)

## Challenges in Providing Decision Support

- Risk communication
- No constituency pushing for adaptation
- Need many tools and techniques to make use of climate model output
- Long-range forecasts are not validatable: But usefulness and accuracy are different concepts.  Need a generalized, flexible capability (not really a 2-4 year problem)

## Weaknesses

- Multiple Stresses and Regional Imperatives
- We need to do much more to energize the science community in service to society
- “Decision-Making” goes well beyond energy policy
- Good balance between research and practice ...
- but needs more prioritization (“Santa’s wish list”)
- More on non-CO2 greenhouse gases
- Reluctant to draw lessons from IPCC, USNA
- Need more on climate variability
- Need more detail on how to build bridge between research and decision makers/stakeholders
- Where is emphasis on impacts and adaptation analysis?

## Weaknesses

- Need more attention to international concerns

## Concerns

- Reassess:
- Strategy’s **time frames** (I.e., 2-4 years for the CCRI and 10 years for the USGCRP)
- the **necessary resources** to invest in and implement the strategic plans
**management and coordination** mechanisms for implementation
- 2-4 year time frame:
- These things take time (*e.g.,* uncertainty analysis)
- Don’t wait until last minute to begin future assessments!

## Thank you

## Why a CCRI?

- Have flood of research results BUT not much way for feedback of stakeholder’s questions
- “Decision support” is a bridge
- Introduction of *dialogue* – and a new way of doing things & working relationships

## Importance of Risk Analysis

- Climate issue is fundamentally a problem of *risk analysis* and decision making under uncertainty
- Experience also suggests that it is more effective to pose climate change as a “risk management” problem to local decision makers

## Key Observations	

- Scenario development has a logical 3-prong approach
- Historical perspectives
- “What if” scenarios
- Model projections
- But, we are also missing a key opportunity...
- 		*to energize the science community in service to society*