# Presentation: 384560

## National Energy Supply and Fuel Outlook

**Director**
**Electric Power Division**
**Energy Information Administration**

**Energy and Environment**
**Sustainability in a Carbon**
**Constrained Future**
**New York, New York**
**September 11, 2008**

***National Energy Supply and Fuel Outlook***

## Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Price Forecasts

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**nominal dollars per barrel**

**nominal dollars per ton**

**nominal dollars per thousand cubic feet**

**nominal cents per kilowatthour**

**World Oil Price**

**Natural Gas Wellhead Price**

**Coal Minemouth Price**

**Average Electricity Price**

**Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Price Forecasts**

## Energy Consumption by Fuel Type

**Energy Consumption by Fuel Type**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

- History

- Projections

- Liquid Fuels

- Natural Gas

- Coal

- Nuclear

- Renewables

- quadrillion Btu

## U.S. Dependence on Imports of Liquid Fuels

**U.S. Dependence on Imports of Liquid Fuels**

- Consumption

- Domestic Supply

- Net Imports** **

- 60%

- 54%

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

- History

- Projections

- million barrels per day

## U.S. electricity demand growth slowing(3-year moving average)

- History

- Projections

**U.S. electricity demand growth slowing****(3-year moving average)**

|  | Annual Growth |
| --- | --- |
| 1950s | 9.0% |
| 1960s | 7.3% |
| 1970s | 4.2% |
| 1980s | 3.1% |
| 1990s | 2.4% |
| 2000-2005 | 1.2% |
| 2005-2030 | 1.1% |

## Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2030

**(billion kilowatthours)**

**Liquids**

**Renewables**

**Coal**

**Natural gas**

**Nuclear**

**Electricity Demand**

**2,094**

**4,972**

**Projections**

**History**

## New York Generation by Fuel2006 and 2030(billion kilowatthours)

**Coal**

**Petroleum**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

**Renewable**

**Coal**

**Petroleum**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

**Renewable**

## CO2 Emissions

## S. 2191 : Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007		Title I Cap and Trade Provisions

**The cap covers 87% of inventoried GHG emissions in 2006**
**Natural gas and petroleum GHG emissions regulated upstream (producers and importers submit allowances), while coal-related CO****2**** emissions regulated downstream (consumers submit allowances) **
**Allowance obligations may be satisfied by offsets**
**Allowances are tradable and can be banked for future use.  **
**Provisions not addressed in analysis:**
**Title III - Section 3902 allocation of allowances to new entrant fossil fuel-fired power generating facilities  **
**Title X – Control of Hydrofluorocarbon Consumption**
**Title XI – Section 11003, Low Carbon Transportation Fuel Standard**
**State programs being developed to reduce greenhouse gases**

## Greenhouse Gas Emissions  (million metric ton carbon dioxide equivalent)

**Covered entities are expected to slightly over comply through 2030 to prepare for compliance beyond 2030.**

## 2030 Electricity Generation by Fuel(billion kilowatthours)

**Coal generation is significantly lower in all cases, while nuclear, renewables, and coal with CCS are higher.**
**Natural gas generation more than doubles if nuclear, renewables and coal with CCS are limited.**

**Coal with CCS**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**Natural Gas**

**Oil/Other**

## The Energy Information Administration web site is located at: http://www.eia.doe.gov

Publications of Interest:
Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Reference Case, April 2008
Annual Energy Outlook 2008
Energy Markets and Economic Impacts of S. 2191
Electric Power Annual
Electric Power Monthly
State Electricity Profiles

For more information please contact: 
Robert Schnapp, Director Electric Power Division 
Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric, and Alternate Fuels
Energy Information Administration
(202) 586-5114 or
robert.schnapp@eia.doe.gov

**Publications of Interest:**
**Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Reference Case, April 2008**
**Annual Energy Outlook 2008**
**Energy Markets and Economic Impacts of S. 2191**
**Electric Power Annual**
**Electric Power Monthly**
**State Electricity Profiles**
**For more information please contact: **
**Robert Schnapp, Director Electric Power Division **
**Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric, and Alternate Fuels**
**Energy Information Administration**
**(202) 586-5114 or**
**robert.schnapp@eia.doe.gov**