# Presentation: 141455

## Agricultural Export Projection Lowered$500 Million to $57 BillionImports Raised $1 Billion to $43 Billion 

**FY 2003 Export Projections for**
**Ag, Fishery & Solid Wood Products**

- USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
- was released at 4pm EST on December 2, 2002
- Presentation was prepared by Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

## U.S. Agricultural Trade

**U.S. Agricultural Trade**

- FY 2003 exports projected at $57 billion -- coarse grains, wheat & cotton drive most of the year-to-year growth; surplus at $14 billion.

- Record

- Record

- Record

## Export Projections for  Key Commodities/Countries

| $ Billions | 
Final
FY 2002 | Aug
FY ‘03
Proj | Dec
FY ‘03
Proj | 
Aug/Dec
Chg | 

Main Reasons |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Wheat & Flour | 3.623 | 4.0 | 4.2 | +0.2 | mostly (+) price - tight HQ supply |
| Corn | 4.581 | 6.2 | 6.1 | -0.1 | (-) vol -- increased competition |
| Cotton | 2.052 | 2.7 | 2.6 | -0.1 | (-) volume -- poorer U.S. crop |
| Soybeans | 5.468 | 5.4 | 5.7 | +0.3 | (-) price offset by (+) 1.9 mmt |
| Soybean Meal | 1.294 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -0.2 | (-) price & volume |
| Beef/Pork | 4.749 | 4.9 | 5.0 | +0.1 | (+) vol for beef & pork |
| Broiler Meat | 1.546 | 1.7 | 1.6 | -0.1 | (-) vol -- mkt access/competition |
| Cotton | 2.052 | 2.7 | 2.6 | -0.1 | (-) volume -- poorer U.S. crop |
| Hort. Prods. | 11.109 | 11.5 | 11.3 | -0.2 | US crop, mkt access, exchg rate  |

**Export Projections for  Key Commodities/Countries**
**Changes and Main Reasons**

*Initial 2003 Projections for Countries (compared to 2002 final)*
- Mexico +$1 bil to $8.1 bil & Canada +$400 mil to $9 bil (cgrain, H-V prods)
- Japan +$700 mil to $9 bil (coarse grain vols/prices; wheat; red meats)
- Canada & Japan tie for 1st;  WHemisphere at $21.7 bil ($800 over Asia)

## Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

**Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $100 Million to $16.6 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- U.S. benefiting from tight global supplies of high-quality wheats
- Strong feed grain demand from Mexico & Canada
*Key Downside Developments*
- Ample supply of lower quality wheats
- Strong export competition from Argentina & China in corn mkts
- High prices boosting prospects for nontraditional exporters
*Wild Cards*
- China’s grain trade; EU export aggressiveness

- Includes corn gluten feed/meal

## Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

**Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:       $200 Million to $9.6 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- U.S. soybean sales to China are stronger than expected
- U.S. soybean exportable supply increases as production estimate rises 1.8 MMT
*Key Downside Developments*
- Larger SAmerican soybean supplies erode U.S. sales
- Oilseed unit values soften as soybean supplies grow
*Wild Cards*
- Final SAmerican supplies remain uncertain

- Excludes corn gluten feed/meal

## Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters

**Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:       $100 Million to $2.6 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- Poor crop conditions in Southeast assure high quantities of exportable cotton
*Key Downside Developments*
- Export sales & exports lagging
*Wild Cards*
- U.S. & world economic situation

- Note:  FY ’02 and prior years based on U.S Census data; FY ‘03 forecast based on USDA WASDE MY forecast.

## Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry

**Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $200 Million to $12.4 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- Beef exports to Korea climb
- Pork exports to Japan remain strong
*Key Downside Developments*
- Poultry trade disruptions to Russia & China/Hong Kong mkts
- Increased competition w/ Brazil in red meat & broiler meat mkts
*Wild Cards*
- Impact of Japan’s beef safeguard tariff
- Diseases; trade restrictions

*Record*

## Export Outlook for Horticultural Products

**Export Outlook for Horticultural Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $200 Million to $11.3 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- Modest economic growth and somewhat weaker dollar support sales to EU & Canada; Mexico’s economic grow nears 4%
*Key Downside Developments*
- Lower U.S. apple & pear crops
- Market access uncertainty for apples to Taiwan & Mexico
- Reduced U.S. fruit juice supply
*Wild Cards*
- Record almond crop depresses prices, but sales volume should rise leaving overall export value somewhat uncertain

*Record*

## Export Outlook for Fishery Products

**Export Outlook for Fishery Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:   Unchanged at $3.1 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- Pollock fillets & other white fish should continue rapid export growth to EU (+59% from ‘01)
- Projected 50% increase in 2003 Bristol Bay (Alaska) salmon catch
*Key Downside Developments*
- Prices remain down for catfish, pollock roe, shrimp & other prods
*Wild Cards*
- Uncertainty of U.S. harvest for pollock, salmon & other species

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

## Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products

**Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $100 Million to $4.8 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- China’s growing furniture & interiors market leads to increased demand for U.S. hardwoods & softwoods
- China’s revised building codes to allow wood frame construction
*Key Downside Developments*
- U.S. softwood logs & lumber shipped to Japan keep loosing market share to Scandinavia & Russia
*Wild Cards*
- Illegal logging initiatives
- U.S. housing starts

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***