# Presentation: 164748

## STAGES TO APPROPRIATE WEATHER-RELATED RESPONSE

- National Surface Transportation Weather Symposium
- July 25, 2007
- Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow

## Stages to Appropriate Weather-Related Response

- FORECAST
- HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
- RISK REDUCTION

## I. FORECAST

- A.  Accuracy
- B.  Dissemination
- Multiple Channels
- Multiple Modalities

- Factors Affecting Effectiveness

## RISK COMMUNICATION: A MULTISTATE SOCIAL PROCESS

- RISK COMMUNICATION: A MULTISTATE SOCIAL PROCESS

- RECEIVING

- UNDERSTANDING

- BELIEVING

- PERSONALIZING

- Adapted from Tierney, K., M.K. Lindell and R. Perry. 2001

- SENDING

**Notes:**
The essence of "communication" is that it is a process -- an activity that serves to connect senders and receivers of messages through space and time. It is always a complex process, but especially so when the intent is to convey risk. 

## National Weather

- Service

- Appropriate Citizen Responses

- Broadcast Media

- Emergency Managers

- CHANNELS

- Public Officials

- Family and Friends

- Employers, Schools, Etc.

- Internet

- 511, Highway Systems

- PDAs, NAVI, Etc.

- Severe Weather Communication System

## BETTER FORECASTS AND DISSEMINATION AREN’T ENOUGH

-  They Must:
- 	Be Understood
-  	Result in Effective Risk Assessment

## II. HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT

- Forecast Understanding
- 	1. Message Clarity
- 	2. Characteristics of Receivers
- B.  Vulnerability Assessment

##  Forecast Understanding

- 1. Message Clarity

- To what extent do responders understand terms such as:
-  tropical cyclone category
-  watch
-  warning
-  storm surge?

## From Post-Katrina Behavioral Survey. Hugh Gladwin, PI

- From *Post-Katrina Behavioral Survey*. Hugh Gladwin, PI
- Funded by National Science Foundation

## From Post-Katrina Behavioral Survey. Hugh Gladwin, PI

- No important differences by evacuation plans, living in an evacuation zone, age
- College graduates, higher income more likely to give correct answer
- Women more likely to say they did not know

- From *Post-Katrina Behavioral Survey*. Hugh Gladwin, PI
- Funded by National Science Foundation

## Hurricane Local Statement

- Insert
- Quote, Graph or Picture
- Here

**Notes:**
Timothy Schott heads TC Hazards Graphics Working Group
Considering ways to depict threat and also impact
Melbourne WFO experimenting with this graphic for Hurricane Local Statements				

## Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

**Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale**
**With Range of Hazards at the Coast and Inland**

**Major hurricanes**

**Surge**

**Wind**

**Rain**

**Tornado**

**Category 1**
**Winds: 74-95 mph **
**(64-82 kt)**
**                                                                     **

**Category 2**
**Winds: 96-110 mph **
**(83-95 kt)**

**Category 3**
**Winds: 111-130 mph **
**(96-113 kt)**

**Category 4**
**Winds: 131-155 mph**
**(114-135 kt)**

**Category 5**
**Winds: > 155 mph**
**(> 136 kt)**

**Low**

**Moderate**

**Extreme**

**High**

**Low**

**Moderate**

**Extreme**

**High**

**Low**

**Moderate**

**Extreme**

**High**

**Irene (99)**

**Irene (99)**

**Irene (99)**

**Irene (99)**

**Claudette (03)**

**Claudette (03)**

**Claudette (03)**

**Claudette (03)**

**Hazards**

**Hurricane   Categories**

**Isabel (03)**

**Floyd (99)**

**Floyd (99)**

**Isabel (03)**

**Isabel (03)**

**Isabel (03)**

**Floyd (99)**

**Floyd (99****)**

**Jeanne (04)**

**Jeanne (04)**

**Jeanne (04)**

**Jeanne (04)**

**Katrina (05)****@**

**Katrina (05)****@**

**Katrina (05)****@**

**Katrina (05)****@**

**Charley (04)**

**Charley (04)**

**Charley (04)**

**Charley (04)**

**Hugo (95)**

**Hugo (95)**

**Hugo (95)**

**Hugo (95)**

**Camille (69)**

**Camille (69)**

**Camille (69)**

**Camille (69)**

**Andrew (92)***

**Andrew (92)***

**Andrew (92)***

**Andrew (92)***

**Impact**

**Impact**

**Low**

**Moderate**

**Extreme**

**High**

**Impact**

**Impact**

**Storm examples shown in hazard matrix based on intensity at landfall**

***landfall in South Florida,  @ landfall in Louisiana**

## Center Track in Cone?

- Note: NHC now provides the option of examining the Cone of Uncertainty with or without the center track (toggle)

- Center track of Hurricane Charley “pointed” toward Tampa Bay area -- Eye made landfall at Port Charlotte (within the Cone of Uncertainty)

## 64 kt Cumulative

- 0-120 h

- 18 UTC Thu 12 Aug

- Hurricane Charley (2004)

- Note that chances of hurricane conditions at Tampa Bay and Port Charlotte are both around 30%!

- Created by Jamie Rhome, NHC

## Percent INCORRECTLY Identifying Watches and Warnings

- From *Post-Ivan Behavioral Survey*. Hugh Gladwin and Betty Hearn Morrow

## II. RISK ASSESSMENT

- Forecast Understanding
- 	1. Message Clarity
- 	2. Characteristics of Receivers

## 2. Characteristics of Receivers

-  Physical abilities
-  Sight
-  Hearing
-  Cognition
-  Education/Training
-  Experience

## II. RISK ASSESSMENT

- Forecast Understanding
- 	1. Message Clarity
- 	2. Characteristics of Receivers
- B.  Vulnerability Assessment

##   Vulnerability Depends Upon:

-   Location/Site
-   Structure
-   Household Structure
-   Disabilities/Special Needs
-   Social Networks
-   Effectiveness of Local Authorities
-    and Institutions

## Stages to Appropriate Weather-Related Response

- FORECAST
- HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
- RISK REDUCTION

## Ability to Reduce Risk Depends On:

- 1.  Awareness of Alternatives & Consequences
-  Effectiveness of Local Authorities
- 2.  Appropriate Decisions
-  Experience/Education
-  Cognitive abilities
-  Confirmation
-  Culture

## Ability to Reduce Risk Depends On:

- 3.  Resources to Respond Appropriately
-   Safe Shelter
-   Transportation
-   Economic Resources
-   Social Support System

## Evacuation of New Orleans for Katrina:

- Forecast
-   Accurate
-   Widely Disseminated
- Risk Assessment
-     Forecast Understood?
-     	Clear Message*
-     	Able Receivers
-     Vulnerability Understood?*
- Risk Reduction
-     Awareness of Alternatives/Consequences?*
-     Appropriate Decision?
-     Resources to Carry It Through?*

** Affected by Actions of Authorities*

## Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow

- Professor Emeritus, Sociology
- Florida International University
- betty@bmorrow.com