# Presentation: 361786

## The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status

**Update prepared by**
**Climate Prediction Center / NCEP**
**21 April 2008**

**For more information, visit:**
**http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/African_Monsoons/precip_monitoring.shtml**

## Outline

**  ****Highlights**
**  ****Recent Evolution and Current Conditions**
**  ****NCEP GEFS Forecasts**
**  ****Experimental Week-1 Outlook**
**  ****Summary**

## HighlightsLast 7 Days

- Rains continued to pour along coastal Tanzania causing flooding in local areas. Western and eastern Ethiopia continued to receive beneficial rains.
- Rainfall was near average across most areas in the Greater Horn of Africa, except for local areas in southern Kenya.
- Light rains resulted in below average rainfall in local areas along the Guinean coast.

## Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days

**During the past 7 days, rainfall was again above average over southern Somalia and along coastal Tanzania.  Rainfall also persisted over western and eastern Ethiopia.  Rainfall was below average over local areas in southern Kenya and northeastern Ethiopia Uganda.  Parts of the Gulf of Guinea region also registered below average rainfall.  **

## Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days

**Over the last 30 days, rainfall was above average along coastal Tanzania, and southern Somalia, and portions of southern Africa.  Rainfall was below average over the central areas of Ethiopia and Kenya, as well as Madagascar and parts of southern Africa and the Gulf of Guinea region.**

## Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days

**Over the past 90 days, rainfall was above average over parts of northern Namibia, southeastern Angola, along the northern coast of Mozambique, and most areas in central Tanzania.  Rainfall was below average over most areas in northern Kenya, central Ethiopia, as well as in areas along the Guinean coast.**

## Rainfall Patterns: Last 180 Days

**Over the past 180 days, rainfall was above average across most areas in southern Africa.  Rainfall was below average over portions of the central areas of Africa and the Greater Horn, including Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia.  Rainfall was also below average over the Gulf of Guinea region.**

## Recent Rainfall Evolution

**Recent Rainfall Evolution**

**	****The recovery of the Belg rains slowed down in southern Ethiopia (top panel - right); Coastal Tanzania has consistently been soaked over the past several weeks (bottom panel – right); Below average rains continued to sustain moisture deficits over parts of the Gulf of Guinea region (bottom panel – left).  **

## Atmospheric Circulation:Last 7 Days

**Atmospheric Circulation:****Last 7 Days**

**Over the past 7 days, the 850 hPa wind anomaly (left panel) featured easterly wind anomalies over the central Indian Ocean (IO).  Upper level easterly wind anomalies stretching from Asia westward into Africa (right panel) were evident.**

## NCEP GEFS Model ForecastsNon-Bias Corrected Probability of precipitation exceedance – Week-1Valid 22 - 28 Apr, 2008

**NCEP GEFS Model Forecasts****Non-Bias Corrected Probability of ****precipitation exceedance – Week-1****Valid 22 - 28 Apr, 2008**

**NCEP global ensemble forecast system (GEFS) suggests a high tilt in the odds (90% or above) for precipitation to exceed 25 mm along coastal Tanzania, sections of southwestern, southern Somalia, the western Ethiopian highlands, central Africa, and along the Gulf of Guinea region (left panel).  Areas with highest chance for precipitation to exceed 50 mm (right panel) are confined to central Africa and along the Tanzanian coast. **

## Experimental Week-1 Precipitation OutlookValid 22 - 28 Apr, 2008

## Summary

**Over the past 7 days, rainfall was again above average over southern Somalia and along coastal Tanzania.  Rainfall also persisted over western and eastern Ethiopia.  Rainfall was below average over local areas in southern Kenya and northeastern Ethiopia Uganda.  Parts of the Gulf of Guinea region also registered below average rainfall.**
**Over the last 30 days, consistent moderate to heavy rains sustained moisture surpluses along coastal Tanzania.  Rainfall was also above average over southern Somalia.  Light rains sustained moisture deficits over portions of central Ethiopia and northern Kenya, and over the northern areas of southern Africa.  Rainfall was below average over the Gulf of Guinea region.**
**Over the past 90 days, rainfall was above average over parts of northern Namibia, southeastern Angola, along the northern coast of Mozambique, and most areas in central Tanzania.  Rainfall was below average over most areas in northern Kenya, central Ethiopia, as well as in areas along the Guinean coast.**
**For the period 22– 28 April 2008, The NCEP global ensemble forecast system (GEFS) suggests 90% or above chance for precipitation to exceed 25 mm along coastal Tanzania, sections of southwestern, southern Somalia, the western Ethiopian highlands, central Africa, and along the Gulf of Guinea region (left panel).  Areas with highest chance for precipitation to exceed 50 mm (right panel) are confined to central Africa and along the Tanzanian coast. **