# Presentation: 154731

## Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) 2006 IHC Update

**Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) 2006 IHC Update**

**USWRP**

**Dr. Jiann-Gwo Jiing****JHT Director****TPC/NHC****22 March 2006**

## Outline

**Status of Second Round Projects (FY03-04)**
**Status of Third Round Projects (FY05-06)**
**Major JHT Activities in 2006**

## Status of 15 Second Round Projects (FY03-04 Funding)

**15 projects were initially funded late in FY03:  3 one-year and 12 two-year projects**
**Three one-year projects concluded (Aug 2004)**
**Decisions on operational implementation by TPC Director in December 2004**
**Two projects accepted for operational implementation and were implemented before 2005 Hurricane Season started**
**2005-present activities**
**12 two-year projects completed in August 2005**
**Final stage of evaluation**
**Decisions on operational implementation for 8 projects in late March 2006 by TPC Director**
**Decisions on operational implementation for 4 model related projects in April 2006 by EMC Director**

_**Status of 15 Second Round Projects**_** ****(FY03-04 Funding)**

## Status of 15 Third Round Projects(FY05-06 Funding)

**Background information:**
**Announcement of Opportunity (30 June 2004)**
**Review of proposals completed and recommendations made in late January 2005**
**Total available funding: ~$1.2 Million**
**PIs from federal labs received funding in late March (OAR) and June (DOD) 2005**
**Non-federal PIs received funding between late June and August 2005**
**JHT and project point of contacts coordinated with PIs to develop timelines **
**Testing and evaluation during 2005 hurricane season **

_**Status of 15 Third Round Projects**_**(FY05-06 Funding)**

## Third Round Project Focus Areas

| Primary Area of Focus | # of Projects |
| --- | --- |
| Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts) | 4 |
| Intensity forecast guidance | 4 |
| Enhancements to observed data, assimilation | 3 |
| Tropical cyclone structure/wind distribution | 2 |
| Track forecast guidance | 1 |
| Enhancements to operational environment | 1 |
| Total | 15 |

_**Third Round Project Focus Areas**_

## 3rd Round (FY05) Funding DistributionTotal $1.2M

**NOAA 39%**

**Private Companies 9%**

**State and Private Universities 36%**

**Navy (NPS, NRL) 16%**

## Implementation

**First round:**
**10 projects, one was not continued after first year**
**Two projects continued into 2****nd**** round **
**Out of the seven accepted, 6.5 were implemented**
**Second round:**
**Three one-year projects, 2 implemented, one not accepted**
**12 two-year projects being evaluated (some already implemented)**

## Implementation

**Some relative easy**
**Some very complicated**
**Some implemented by the PIs/other Centers **
**Some implemented by TPC staff/PIs**
**Some implemented by JHT staff/PIs**

## Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence 

**(R-CLIPER) Model**

**Example real-time output in NAWIPS during Hurricane Lili (2002)**

## GFDL

## AMSU Intensity/Size Estimation

**AMSU Intensity/Size Estimation**

## Experimental Cumulative Wind Speed Probabilities

**This product will be operational in 2006**

**Computed each forecast cycle for all active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern/central Pacific, and western Pacific basins**
**Computed on 2-D grids with 0.5-degree lat/lon spacing**
**Provides probabilities of the surface wind speed equal to or exceeding 34, 50, and 64 kt over specified time intervals (0-120 hours in 12-hour intervals)**
**Individual interval or cumulative probabilities**
**Gridded, graphical, and text products can be produced**

## Major Activities for 2006

**Present final reports on eight 2****nd**** round non-EMC related projects to TPC Director (mid-March)**
**Rounds 3 PI presentations at the 60****th**** IHC in Mobile, AL  (March 20-24)**
**Decisions for implementation of eight 2****nd**** round   projects by TPC Director (March 31)**
**Decisions on implementation of four 2****nd**** round  model-related projects by EMC (April)**
**Second year funding proposals for 3****rd**** round projects due for SC review (April and July 2006)**
**Requested $1.265M, $1.15M available**
**Real time testing and evaluation**

## Major Activities for 2006(Preparing for the next round of funding)

**Revise Announcement of Opportunity (AO) for  round 4 (FY07-08) projects. Send to DOC legal counsel for review in early April **
**Round 4 AO released (June 30)**
**Pre-application for round 4 proposals due July 31**
**Full proposals due October 30**
**Receive final scores from the SC (January 8, 2007)**
**TPC and JHT Directors’ decision on which proposals to recommend for funding (January 29, 2007)**

## Changes

**Russ Elsberry retired from the JHT Steering Committee (SC)**
**Jeff Hawkins (NRL) elected to the SC**
**Frank Marks retired from the SC**
**Chris Landsea retired from the JHT adm. Assist. position (HRD)**
**Shirly Murillo replaces Chris Landsea as the JHT adm. Assist. (HRD)**
**Chris Landsea elected to the JHT SC (HRD)**
**Rich Knabb retired from the JHT adm. assist. position (TPC)**
**Chris Landsea joined the TPC and became the JHT adm. Assist. (TPC)**
**John Gamache elected to the SC (HRD)**

## JHT Website

**JHT Website**

## Acknowledgements

**JHT Steering Committee**
**JHT administrative assistants**
**Alison Krautkramer, JHT meteorologist/programmer**
**JHT principal investigators and other funded participants**
**Ward Seguin and John Gaynor (OAR) **
**TPC/NHC  management and admin staff**
**TPC and EMC forecaster and technical points of contact**
**TPC/TSB IT staff**

## Thank you

## Supplemental Slides

## Input for JHT Project Reportsto the TPC Director

**Project PI final report**
**JHT staff members’ assessments**
**TPC Point of Contact (POC) feedback**
**JHT IT Facilitator report**
**IT transfer status**
**Compatibility and support issues**
**Estimates of costs to implement and support**
**Input from TPC Technical Support Branch Chief**

## FY05 JHT Proposal Review Criteria (Condensed)

**Relevance to program goals (40 pts)**
**Research maturity (10 pts)**
**Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts)**
**Other agency use (5 pts)**
**Technical merit (40 pts)**
**Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts)**
**Testing (10 pts)**
**Operational usage (10 pts)**
**Technical compatibility (10 pts)**
**Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts)**
**Project costs (10 pts)**

## Preapplications (Letters of Intent) reviewed in Aug 2004
40 preapplications reviewed
18 recommended to submit a full proposal

Full proposals reviewed during Nov 2004 – Jan 2005
19 proposals reviewed
Proposals independently reviewed and scored by 7 JHT Steering Committee members based upon review criteria listed in the AFFO

**Preapplications (Letters of Intent) reviewed in Aug 2004**
**40 preapplications reviewed**
**18 recommended to submit a full proposal**
**Full proposals reviewed during Nov 2004 – Jan 2005**
**19 proposals reviewed**
**Proposals independently reviewed and scored by 7 JHT Steering Committee members based upon review criteria listed in the AFFO**

## JHT Second Round (FY03-04)Project Focus Areas

| Primary Areas of Focus | # of Projects |
| --- | --- |
| Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts) | 4 |
| Track forecast guidance algorithms | 3 |
| Intensity forecasting algorithms | 3 |
| Enhancements to observed data, assimilation | 2 |
| Initial intensity estimation | 1 |
| Tropical cyclogenesis | 1 |
| Rainfall | 1 |
| Total | 15 |

**JHT Second Round (FY03-04)****Project Focus Areas**

## Second Round (FY03-04) ProjectsDynamical model upgrades, obs/assimilation projects

| Proposal | PIs | TPC POC | Yrs |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Upgrades to the operational GFDL hurricane prediction system | Bender (GFDL) | Pasch
Rhome | 2 |
| Improving the GFDL/URI coupled hurricane-ocean model | Ginis
(U. RI) | Pasch
Rhome | 2 |
| Hurricane model transitions to operations at NCEP/EMC | Pan
(NCEP) | Pasch
Rhome | 2 |
| Evaluation of upper ocean mixing parameterizations | Jacob (U. MD)
Shay (U. M)
Halliwell (U. M) | Lawrence
Mainelli | 2 |
| Real-time dissemination of hurricane wind fields determined from airborne doppler | Gamache
(HRD)
 | Franklin, McAdie, Blake
EMC: several | 2 |
| Targeting strategies to improve hurricane track forecasts | Majumdar(UM) 
Aberson (HRD)
Toth (NCEP) | Franklin | 2 |

## Second Round (FY03-04) Projects Cyclogenesis and track forecasting projects

| Proposal | PIs | TPC POC | Yrs |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Objective and automated assessment of operational global forecast model predictions of tropical cyclone formation and life cycle | Harr (NPS) | Pasch
Avila
Blake | 2 |
| An updated baseline for track forecast skill through five days for the Atlantic and Northeastern and Northwestern Pacific basins | Aberson (HRD) | Franklin
Gross | 1
Accepted and implemented |
| Quantifying tropical cyclone track forecast uncertainty and improving extended-range tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models | Goerss (NRL) | Beven
Gross | 1
Accepted and implemented |
| Transition of revised dynamical model track prediction evaluation expert system (DYMES) | Boothe (NPS) | Stewart
Roberts | 1
Not accepted |

## Second Round (FY03-04) Projects Intensity and rainfall projects

| Proposal | PIs | TPC POC | Yrs |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Improving the validation and prediction of tropical cyclone rainfall | Pan (NCEP)
Black (HRD)
Marchok (NCEP) | Stewart
Molleda | 2 |
| Implementation of the Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT) and Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation (TIE) algorithms at TPC | Kossin (U. WI)
Velden (U. WI) | Beven, Rhome, Mainelli, Cobb, Brown | 2 |
| Improvements in Deterministic and Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Predictions | Knaff (U. Co)
DeMaria (NESDIS) | Lawrence
Gross
Sisko | 2 |
| Development of a rapid intensification index for the eastern Pacific basin | Kaplan (HRD) | Avila
Sisko | 2 |
| Developing an inner-core SST cooling predictor for use in SHIPS | Cione (HRD)
Gentemann
Kaplan (HRD) | Avila, Berg, Sisko, Blake | 2 |

## JHT Third Round ProjectsDynamical model upgrades, observational, and assimilation projects

| Proposal Title | PIs | TPC POC |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Hurricane Model Transition to Operations at GFDL/NOAA | Bender | Pasch, Rhome |
| Hurricane Model Transition to Operations at GFDL/NOAA | Tuleya | Pasch |
| Drag Coefficient and Wind Speed Dependence in TCs | Powell | Franklin |
| Dynamic Initialization to Improve TC Intensity and Structure Forecasts | Liou | Pasch |
| Operational SFMR-NAWIPS Airborne Processing and Data Distribution Products | Carswell, Black, Chang | Beven, Mainelli, Sisko, Lauer |
| Mapping of Topographic Effects on Maximum Sustained Surface Wind Speeds in Landfalling Hurricanes | Miller | Beven |
| Assimilating Moisture Information from GPS Dropwindsondes into the NOAA Global Forecast System | Aberson | Franklin, Blake |
| WSR-88D-derived Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes Near Landfall | Lee, Harasti | Stewart, McAdie |

## JHT Third Round Projects Intensity, structure, and track projects

| Proposal Title | PIs | TPC POC |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Improved Statistical Intensity Forecast Models | Knaff, DeMaria, Kaplan | Avila, Sisko |
| Enhancement of SHIPS Using Passive Microwave Imager Data | Cecil | Stewart, Sisko |
| Eastern Pacific Ocean Heat Content Estimates for SHIPS Forecasts | Shay, DeMaria | Avila, Mainelli |
| Continued Development of Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Products | Knaff, DeMaria | “Lawrence”, Gross |
| Estimating Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Utilizing an Empirical Inland Wind Decay Model | Kaplan | Stewart, Gross |
| Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts | Goerss | Beven, Gross |
| Development and Implementation of NHC/JHT Products in ATCF | Sampson | “Lawrence”, Sisko, Gross |