# Presentation: 712346

## Initial FY ‘04 AgTrade ProjectionsExports = $57.0 BillionImports = $47.5 BillionSurplus =   $9.5 Billion(FY ‘03 AgExport Forecast Falls $500 Million to $55.5 Billion) 

**Export Forecasts for Agricultural,**
**Fishery & Solid Wood Products**

- USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
- was released on August 26th, 2003
- Prepared by Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

## U.S. Agricultural Trade

**U.S. Agricultural Trade**

- Record

***Exports***

***Imports***

***Trade Balance   ***

- Improved outlook for wheat & cotton spearhead $1.5-billion rise in 2004 exports; meats & fruit also support overall gain.  Horticultural products  account for over 1⁄2 of $2.5-billion import gain.  Surplus cut to $9.5 billion.

- 57.0

- 55.5

- 45.0

- 47.5

- 9.5

## Key Changes in Export Projections Fiscal 2003 to 2004

|  | 
Final
FY 2002 | Aug
FY ‘03
For. | Aug
FY ‘04
Proj. | 
03/04
Chg | 

Main Reasons |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Wheat/flour ($Bils) | 3.605 | 3.8 | 4.4 | +0.6 | (+) volume offsets (-) price |
| Soybeans ($Bils) | 5.468 | 6.5 | 5.7 | -0.8 | (-) volume/price |
| Broiler Meat ($Bils) | 1.546 | 1.4 | 1.6 | +0.2 | no further disease outbreaks |
| Cotton ($Bils) | 2.052 | 2.8 | 3.5 | +0.7 | reduced global stocks |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Wheat (mmt) | 25.353 | 22.7 | 27.5 | +4.8 | Ukraine/Rus/EU comp./US crop |
| Corn (mmt) | 46.913 | 41.0 | 46.0 | +5.0 | China comp./US crop |
| Soybeans (mmt) | 28.987 | 28.3 | 27.2 | -1.1 | SAm comp./Canadian rapeseed |

**Key Changes in Export Projections Fiscal 2003 to 2004**

- Fiscal 2004 country forecasts will not be available until November 2003.

## Commodity/Country 2003 Export Forecasts

|  | 
Final
FY 2002 | May
FY ‘03
For. | Aug
FY ‘03
For. | 
May/Aug
Chg | 

Main Reasons |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Corn ($ Bils) | 4.581 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -0.1 | (-) volume |
| Wheat/flour ($Bils) | 3.605 | 4.0 | 3.8 | -0.2 | (-) volume swamps (+) price |
| Cotton ($Bils) | 2.052 | 2.6 | 2.8 | +0.2 | (+) volume – China demand |
| Hort. ($Bils) | 11.109 | 11.6 | 11.8 | +0.2 | (+) volume wine & essential oils |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Corn (mmt) | 46.913 | 42.0 | 41.0 | -1.0 | competition w/ China |
| Wheat (mmt) | 25.353 | 24.0 | 22.7 | -1.3 | slow late-season shipments |
| Soybeans (mmt) | 28.897 | 27.5 | 28.3 | +0.8 | China’s demand |

**Commodity/Country 2003 Export Forecasts**

- EU-15 -$900 million to $5.8 billion (soybeans & meal, tobacco leaf)
- China +$400 million to $3.5 billion (soybeans, cotton)
- Canada & Mexico remain unchanged at $9.1 billion and $7.6 billion
- Japan +$200 million to $9 billion
-    (U.S. ag exports to Western Hemisphere and Asia are running neck and neck)

***Key Changes in Fiscal ’03 Forecasts since May***

## Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

**Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $400 Million to $14.9 Billion
- Initial FY 2004 Projection:       $600 Million to $15.5 Billion

- (Includes corn gluten feed/meal)

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
- Slow late-season wheat sales
- Stronger competition from        China & Brazil in corn markets
- Initial FY 2004 Projection
*Key Upside Developments*
- Ample US wheat & corn supply
- Less competition from Ukraine, Russia, and EU in wheat markets
*Key Downside Developments*
- Tighter US rice supplies
- Record Brazil corn crop/large stocks
*Wild Cards*
- China’s corn exports

## Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

**Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products**

- (Excludes corn gluten feed/meal)

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $100 Million to $10.1 Billion
- Initial FY 2004 Projection:       $1.0 Billion to $9.1 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
- Record China soybean imports boost US soybeans 800,000 mt
- Initial FY 2004 Projection
*Key Upside Developments*
- Short grain supplies in Europe increase protein meal demand
*Key Downside Developments*
- Competition w/ SAmerica, slower import growth from China, & rebound in global rapeseed crop impact US soybean & oil exports
*Wild Cards*
- South American production

## Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters

**Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters**

- Note:  FY ’02 and prior years based on U.S Census data; FY ‘03 and ’04 forecasts based on WASDE Marketing Year  forecast.

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:      $200 Million to $2.8 Billion
- Initial FY 2004 Projection:        $700 Million to $3.5 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Exports higher than expected supported by strong China sales
- Initial FY 2004 Projection
*Key Upside Developments*
-  World demand stays strong; consumption outstrips production
*Key Downside Developments*
-  World production up significantly
*Wild Cards*
-  China’s administration of TRQ uncertain
- Prices for synthetics uncertain

## Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry

**Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $300 Million to $11.6 Billion
- Initial FY 2004 Projection:       $800 Million to $12.4 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Cattle exports to Canada down
-  Lower prices for pork & poultry
- Initial FY 2004 Projection
*Key Upside Developments*
-  Anticipated recovery of US pork  & broiler meat prices
*Key Downside Developments*
-  Japanese pork & beef safeguards
*Wild Cards*
-  Impact of Mexico’s antidumping case on pork
-  Russian poultry quota

## Export Outlook for Horticultural Products

**Export Outlook for Horticultural Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $200 Million to $11.8 Billion
- Initial FY 2004 Projection:       $200 Million to $12.0 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
- Very strong sales of wine & essential oils; strong sales to key mkts (Canada, Mexico, EU)
- Initial FY 2004 Projection
*Key Upside Developments*
- Good apple, pear, citrus crops
- Tree nut sales expand
- Wine exports continue strong
*Key Downside Developments*
- Vegetable sales are stagnant
*Wild Cards*
- Crop sizes; global economy

## Export Outlook for Fishery Products

**Export Outlook for Fishery Products**

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:      Unchanged at $3.0 Billion
- Initial FY 2004 Projection:        $100 Million to $3.1 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Excellent 2003 salmon harvest; Sockeye salmon up 30% over 2002
- Initial FY 2004 Projection
*Key Upside Developments*
-  Large supply of canned pink and sockeye (Red) salmon
*Key Downside Developments*
-  Prices reflect large supplies
*Wild Cards*
-  Uncertainty of U.S. harvests of salmon, squid, and other species

## Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products

**Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products**

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:      Unchanged at $4.9 Billion
- Initial FY 2004 Projection:        $100 Million to $5.0 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Exports to Canada rising on strength of hardwood lumber and favorable exchange rate
- Initial FY 2004 Projection
*Key Upside Developments*
-  Mexico’s maquiladoras to use more U.S. lumber
- EU hardwood market recovery
*Key Downside Developments*
-  Japan’s housing starts could fall 2% to 1.13 million units
*Wild Card*
-  U.S. housing starts