# Presentation: 193735

## COLLABORATIONin the IFPS EraPaul Howerton - Wichita, KS

## Outline

**Reasons for collaboration**
**Influences on collaboration**
**Tools **
**12Planet**
**ISC**
**Collaboration do’s and don’ts**
**Collaboration experiences during NDFD prototype**
**Unresolved issues**

## Collaboration vs.Coordination

**Collaboration - exchanging ideas to reach a common forecast solution**
**Coordination - notifying surrounding offices of your forecast **

## My forecast vs. NWS forecast

## How Good is Good Enough?Initial Collaboration Triggers

**MaxT/MinT/T/Td ****- 5 deg (7 deg ****where elev. diff. ****≥**** 500 ft.****)**
**PoP - ****20%**
**Sky ****- 25% (40% ****where elev. diff. ****≥**** 500 ft.****)**
**Wind ****- 10 kts (15 kts ****where elev. diff. ****≥**** 500 ft.****) **
**QPF ****- 0.25/6 hr**
**Snow ****- 2 inches (only for homogenous situations)**
**Free Air Wind ****- 15 kts**
**Snow Level ****- 1000 ft**
**Wx ****- Liquid/freezing/frozen**** **(cannot check in ISC Discrep)
**http://www-md.fsl.noaa.gov/IFPS/ISC.htm**

## Influences on Collaboration

**Schedules/duties**
**Order and method of weather element production**
**Forecaster philosophy**
**Office philosophy**
**The forecaster’s knowledge of meteorology and his/her ability to communicate it**

## Schedules/Duties

**How an office breaks down duties matters**
**Routine/Update vs Short/Long term vs Public/Aviation**
**Adding new day 7 deadline of ****1745Z**** **
**Doing days 4-7 at same time is efficient**
**Pertinent model data available **
**If ensembles later show a change in forecast is needed, then collaborate on those aspects**
**Need to start at about the same time for most effective collaboration **
**Everyone working on a subset of entire database**

## An Extended Forecast Timeline

- 13-16z: Collaborate major issues and edit grids
- HPC currently experimenting with preliminary extended discussion
- 16-17z: ISC grid comparisons and final tweaking
- Subject to change, based on availability of guidance and customer demands

## Weather Element Productionand the Impact on Collaboration

**Edit grids to optimize meteorological reasoning and  internal consistency**
**PoP ******** Wx ******** Sky ???**
**Common smart tools facilitate collaboration**
**Using diurnal curve tools for T from MaxT/MinT, weather from pop, etc. **
**Use lapse rate tools to account for terrain**

## Philosophy

**The emphasis an office places on a well collaborated forecast makes a difference**
**Management team leads the way**
**Attitude towards collaboration can differ from forecaster to forecaster in an office**
**More work for other forecasters - if one forecaster does not collaborate then others have to “fix” forecast to be well collaborated**
**The forecast style (aggressive or conservative) of each forecaster will impact collaboration**

## Tools

**12Planet**
**Intersite Coordination of Grids (ISC)**
**Telephone**

## 12Planet

**Each office has standardized IDs**
**WFO’s are XXX_short, XXX_long, XXX_3, XXX_4**
**HPC’s are hpc_MDLDIAG, hpc_MEDR, hpc_QPF1, hpc_QPF2**
**RFC’s are XXX_1, XXX_2, XXX_3**
**SPC’s are SPC_Outlook1, SPC_Outlook2, SPC_Outlook3,     SPC_Watch, SPC_Meso, SPC_Fire**
**Can block all but your surrounding offices and NCEP**
**Can talk to all on your subscribe list at once as well as just a select few (whisper/private chat)**

## 12Planet

**You can set up a word list on which to receive audio alarms**
**By choosing _ as a word, you will receive an audio alarm on each message posted by someone in your subscribe list**
**You can set up a temporary chat room to talk to  a few offices or for a regional meeting**

**Help can be accessed by clicking ****+**** then Help in 12Planet or                                                        ****www-md.fsl.noaa.gov/IFPS/12p/12Planet.htm**

## 12Planet is just the beginning

**Provides initial method for widespread collaboration of meteorological thought **
**Collaboration strategies and chat tools are sure to evolve **
**May eventually find a method to enhance or replace chat capability**

##      Chat Advantages

**Efficient and less intrusive to forecast process**
**Focuses discussion on one topic at a time**
**Encourages conciseness **
**Allows everyone to use same mode of communication**
**Facilitates exchange of all viewpoints**
**Less potential for personalities to dominate**
**Allows earlier collaboration of potential headlines**

## Chat Advantages con’t

**Allows for continuous sharing of information**
**Quicker notification of changes in meteorological thinking**
**Can also relay technical issues or severe weather reports**
**Opportunity for science sharing**
**Increased interaction with surrounding offices and NCEP**** **
**Other uses of posts**
**Basis of AFD**
**Shift briefing**
**Subsequent forecasters can review evolution of forecast**

## ISC Grid Collaboration

## Ways to Send ISC

**You can choose to **
**send ISC grids via the **
**Save Dialog – ****This should **
**be the default**

**OR**

**Send your grids **_**Early**_** and **_**Often**_**!**

**Send ISC Grid option from Right Mouse Button over a particular grid **

**Don’t wait until all grids have been edited**
**Also do not send grids you intend to edit again**

## Send ISC Dialog

**Select Weather Elements you wish to send**
**Select the Time Period**
**Choose sites you wish to send to**
- So if you edited MaxT for Day 3 on the eastern boundary, you can just send that grid to the WFO that borders on the east

**Can choose groups such as Public, Fire, etc.**

## Intersite Coordination Mode

**How to find where forecast differences exceed the collaboration thresholds**

**You can set up a sample point set which will allow forecasters to get a quick look at whether ISC thresholds are being met**

## ISC Discrepancy Tools

**There are three GFE tools to help identify discrepancies:**
- Show_ISC_Highlights -- highlights grids that are discrepant. This is the tool called by the ISC_Discrepancies Procedure
- Show_ISC_Grid -- creates a discrepancy grid to be viewed from the Grid Manager
- Show_ISC_Area -- creates an edit area identifying where discrepancies were found

**Complex Terrain Discrepancy Grid**

## Generating Discrepancy Grids

- Via the Consistency Menu

**Choose the elements and times to check**

**Grids with points exceeding the thresholds are highlighted**

## Generating Discrepancy Grids

**Show_ISC_Area**

**Creates edit areas where thresholds are exceeded**

## Generating Discrepancy Grids

**Show_ISC_Grid**

**Creates grid showing differences between your forecast at that point and your neighbor’s**
**Those exceeding the threshold are highlighted**

## Collaboration Do’s

**Collaborate potentially major issues **_**before**_** your mind is made up**
**Collaborate significant changes to going forecast and any potential headlines**
**Work to get everyone on board – this is one time when peer pressure is a good thing!**
**Focus on the meteorology when chatting**
**Indicate why are you leaning in a particular forecast direction**
**Especially important in extreme events**
**Concentrate on meteorology, not zones or words**
**Minimize use of edit areas that conform to geopolitical boundaries**

## Collaboration Don’ts

**No need to chat about minor tweaks if you are going to be within tolerances/thresholds**
**Open ended questions are often not as effective, need to be specific**
**SEW - concerned abt shrtwv on tues.  May need pops.  What’s your thoughts**?
**OUN/TUL - Eta a lot drier than GFS w/H85 mstr tngt? Which way are you leaning?**
**Don’t neglect the chat – that frustrates surrounding offices **
**Don’t go with a particular forecast solution without backing it up (e.g. blindly going with model guidance)**

## What if You Do Not Agree?How to Work Around a Potential Conflict

**If after stating your science and  experience you still cannot come to a consensus, then try these workarounds**
**Agree to wait for more data which helps to clarify the meteorological situation**
**For the time being, agree to keep any changes closest to what is currently forecast until new data can support a particular solution**
**Have an impartial third office or HPC “break the tie”**
**If this is a recurring issue (e.g. temps on a particular boundary), conduct a local study or have a multi-office meeting on the matter**

## Collaboration Experiences during NDFD Prototype

## Collaboration Successes During the NDFD Prototype

**Summer 2002 during significant cold frontal passage, HPC provided specific ECMWF sfc data**
**HPC occasionally provided web addresses   to datasets they were using along with additional explanation**
**Collaboration makes offices focus on edges of CWA which can improve service to those areas**
**Several occasions when ICT CWA corner forecasts were improved via ISC grids**
**RLX forecasters benefited from RNK forecasters’ expertise in a border valley which improved service to that area**

## Problems Encountered  During the NDFD Prototype

**Numerous cases where offices**
**Waited until the last minute to send any ISC grids**
**Weren’t in chat room or never responded to specific inquiries**
**Forecasters who insist on forecasting a seemingly small chance event, refuse to give some to consensus yet they failed to justify their solution well enough to persuade others**
**Seen particularly in the medium range**
**Forecasters who won’t stray from guidance**

## More Problems Encountered  During the NDFD Prototype

**Cases where HPC**
**Medium range models were stratified into two clusters yet when asked which one they favored, HPC responded, “Both solutions are equally likely” **
**Would be better to know their “gut feeling” as to which would verify**
**Ignored several WFOs who differed on location/timing of nocturnal convection in Plains**

## Collaboration from January 2002

**ictisc**** - main concern though for sgfnt accums would be acrs central ks on fri**
**ictisc**** - in this regard...the eta looks best with lo lvl mstr return/critical mean thkns**
**sgfisc2**** - Are you thinking about a watch?**
**ictisc**** - at this time my main concern for a posbl watch would be acrs central ks (bordering DDC/TOP CWA), not SGF.**
**ictisc**** - just initial impressions though, am open to coord/changes**
**sgfisc2**** - Is EAX considering a watch? **
**ictisc ****- that seems rsnbl further north, and would fit with any watch we might have to the north**
**ictisc**** - does topeka have any thoughts as of yet? or too early?**
**tulisc**** - Well, for our CWFA our only main concern is across far nrn tier. Looks like most of the qpf will shift east before soundings support too much SN.**
**topisc**** - from what I have looked at...some large snow amounts could be possible and I am not against issuing a watch. Will have to check with Hastings.**
**oaxisc**** - oax is running backup for Hastings today**
**eaxisc2**** - I apologize for entering this discussion late.  It looks like light snow could begin in our CWA early Friday morning. That would be late in the fourth period.**
**eaxisc2**** - Snow looks likely, but I am unsure about issuing a watch this early.  I plan on using strong wording in our Hazardous Weather Outlook, but am hesitant for a watch now.**
**oaxisc**** - oax agrees with eax concerning watch...also plan on holding off**
**ictisc**** - it is late 3rd/mainly 4th pd event for ICT.  Can go either way, but current thinking is a Watch is probly warranted if surrounding WFO's lean that way. KED**
**ictisc**** - again for cntrl Ks (north of ICT) right now**
**topisc**** - I was leaning towards a watch but can also go either way.**
**sgfisc2**** - For now...will plan to hold off on the watch also.     **
**ictisc**** - after coord with Topeka. current thinking is to go with a 4th pd (FRI) Watch for Central KS counties**
**ictisc**** - this would be generally alg/n of a HUT-EMP line**

## Evolution of CollaborationChat room excerpts one year later

**WFO SGF** - **with regard to the upcoming system wed nt into thursday...given the eta trend to sink 500 mb height field....layer rh field...and vort track about 150 miles south over the last 2 runs...think that a winter storm watch may be needed over the northern 2/3 of my cwa. initial proposed boundaries are in wwa**
**tsa_longTerm** - **Looking with each successive model run that impact will be greater over ne oklahoma and nw arkansas wed night as well...but preliminary thoughts would be low end advisory amounts along ks border. Will have to wait and see.**
**WFO SGF**** - if in fact we do get several inches of snowpack...fridays high temps may need to be trimmed back substantially as waa not really kicking in yet**
**eax-1**** - all prelim grids have been sent. lowered max temps quite a bit friday for areas which should receive significant snow accumulations. **
**ICT (Routine)**** - 18z mesoeta is even stronger with isentropic lift...this fits the pattern of all models continuing to deepen the system every run. will extend the watch a bit more to the west **
**Topeka Long Term**** - Is anyone concerned with the clipper system progged to come across Iowa on Saturday? Models are fairly consistent with the short wave, but again moisture is the wild card. **
**ICT (Routine)**** - despite impressive forcing/lift, the antecedent dry air should preclude sgfnt qpf til 00z in sern ks. **
**Topeka Long Term**** - Was thinking that an advisory would be warrented in east central zones. Am not excited about warning criteria being met. The best lift is used to saturate the airmass and then scoots east pretty quickly with the best accumulation occurring between 00z and 08z.**
**ICT (Routine)**** - the limiting/troubling factor is wedge of drier air in the low lvls that seems to get wrapped up into sys acrs parts of the cwa. **
**eax-4**** -  quick look at 12Z initialization of ETA makes me think the ETA may be a little too far south with position of 500mb low, based on WV imagery and profiler data. **

**Notes:**
These messages occurred over a 24 hour period from NYE to NYD. The event in question occurred on the 2nd. While some talk in the entire transcript dealt with temps and WWA issues, the majority dealt with the meteorology behind the forecast. 

## The New Forecast MethodologyCollaboration Smoothes the Way

**Only make changes where needed**
**Examine new information as though current forecast is good, until majority of data suggests otherwise**
**Enables forecasters to come to a synoptic scale understanding **_**before**_** making major changes to existing grids**
**Helps to avoid potential problems and wasted time**
**Allows forecasters to share scientific techniques**
**Use ISC to identify any boundary issues**
**Convergence toward a solution is better than yo-yo effect**

## What is More Credible?

## Typical Forecast Shift

**Shift briefing should mention potential problems **
**Meteorology and grids**
**If substantial changes could be needed, reach consensus on synoptic scale evolution first**
**Edit grids and share via ISC**
**Collaborate to resolve finer scale details**

## Ponder thisAs Yet Unanswered Questions

**How do you do a “rolling database” over multiple offices?**
**Do you forecast/chase thunderstorm clusters and outflow boundaries and their effect on pops/temps/winds/sky etc.?**
**At what point do you update?**
**What is “consensus” according to our customers and partners?**

## Things to Keep in Mind

**Extreme events continue to be the most important**
**Let’s work together to nail them**
**Is latest model run always the best choice if large changes are indicated**
**Maybe trends are better**
**Consensus forecast has superior accuracy? **
**“****Consensus is not necessarily the most accurate forecast in a given situation, but over the long haul, consensus usually wins” – C. Doswell**
**But it is still important to have consensus as it affects NWS credibility**
**So to gain credibility as an **_**agency**_**, we must **
**     ****have meteorological consistency in grids**

## Which Forecasts Are Most Credible?Imagine Yourself as a Customer...

## Final Thoughts:Keys for Successful Collaboration

**Discussion needs to begin early in the forecast process as new information (i.e. model data) arrives**
**Interaction needs to continue throughout the forecast process**
**Focus on the meteorology**
**In both chat and grids**
**Consensus is critical**