# Presentation: 007169

## Future requirements for Ocean Surface Vector Winds (SVW)Roger EdsonScience and Operations Officer, WFO GuamMeeting of the Operational Satellite SVWRequirements WorkshopTPC/NHC, Miami FL6 June 2006 

## Setting of Criteria

** ****-Establish a ‘minimum requirement’ and**
**        ****a ‘nice-to-have’ requirement**
**    ****--Perhaps break down in a near term (5 yr) and **
**         ****a long term goal  (10 yr+) ...or percent   ****	****improvement**
**    ****--Each requirement should state the ‘physical need’ **
**          ****(how it is going to be used, why?)**
** ****- Example of future needs for a (greater) specified ****	****SVW  ****	****requirement:**
**     ****-- Warning timeliness and frequency**
**     ****-- Increase in model resolution**
**     ****-- Loss or failure of previous proxy (substituted SVW  ****	****instrument) for required measurement**
**     ****-- Greater need based on better understanding of ****	****physical processes**

## Importance of Scatterometer

**Q&A Session between GUM and HFO**
**(Roger Edson, Andy Nash and Wes Browning)**

**Q1. Right now** **how important is the use of scatterometer data for the**
**   ****daily surface analysis?**
**    ****A1) Crucial.  One of our most important graphical products is the 6-hourly**
**        ****synoptic chart over our extensive AOR (part of the radio fax suite). **
**        ****Chart and the scat data used for high seas, gale areas, swell and local**
**        ****marine effects.**
**Q2.  How are the scatterometer being used to support CPHC?**
**     ****A2)  Primarily used to support outer wind structure; also some positioning**
**           ****although forecaster’s know there are some rain-related issues in**
**           ****wind directions and that wind speeds are not accurately depicted**
**            ****in the inner portions of the TC. Always use in conjunction with other**
**           ****data. Appreciate the new rain-flag ‘circles’ on N-AWIPS. Ultimately**
**           ****we would prefer aircraft and radar data when a hurricane gets close**
**           ****to Hawaii.**
**Q3.  How is your forecaster’s training and knowledge of QuikSCAT?**
**     ****A3)  Pretty good. Our forecasters have been using the data for several**
**           ****years.  WE appreciated Ralph Milliff’s visit and training last winter.**
**            ****Also, value and maintain the QuikSCAT VISITVIEW (COMET) course.**

## Q4.  ‘If’ the scatterometer is no longer available, what type of data would you use in it place?

**     ****A4)  If?? Andy references the Congressional testimony by Prof Moore**
**           ****(Mar 06)—cancelled program for a QuikSCAT follow-on.**
**           ****Hope that low-level cloud drift winds are not going to be a **
**          ‘****substitute’. Assume that AMSU and other types of MI (imagery)**
**           ****will be placed in AWIPS....and that the GFS analysis remains**
**           ‘****good’ (but not sure how much influence that scat data already **
**           ****has on this product.**
**Q5.****  ****‘If’ you could design a brand new instrument to measure SVW, what  **
**   ****requirements would you have?**
**       ****A5) ....Did not really answer this one....however, 1) they know it **
**               ****would probably be a microwave instrument (to see through the  **
**               ****clouds); ‘hoped’ that it would be more accurate than WINDSAT;**
**                ****Able to measure (speed and direction) both light winds less **
**                ****than 10kt and ‘strong’ winds (not sure what limit); and be **
**                ****less susceptible to rain effects.  Finally they wished that a new**
**                ****instrument could provide data MUCH quicker than the existing**
**                ****2 1⁄2 to 3 hours.****    **

## Future Needs of SVW

**WFO:**
** ****- Continued need for surface data over the data-sparse oceans**
**   ****-- Buoys (and handars) are not being supported**
**   ****-- Less accurate ship reports**
** ****- Maintain (increase) timeliness of gale and high seas warnings**
**   ****-- Increase coverage**
**   ****-- Increase refresh rate (4X/day) and availability (~30 minutes)**
** ****Increase accuracy of swell generation and high surf**
** ****Support development in both marine and atmospheric models (by providing higher resolution input)**
**Tropical Cyclones:**
**Increased accuracy in positions and movement   **
**Increased knowledge of wind field in genesis area and intensification**
** ****-- Need both accurate speed and direction without strong rain**
**      ****contamination**
**More accurate outer wind field to meet both warning criteria and**
**     ****support ocean surge calculations**
**- Better knowledge of fetch generation area****   **

##   Requirements for Improvements in             Scatterometer  Wind Retrieval Process     (for TC Analysis)  
  1)  More precise (automated) ambiguity selection process in the high gradient curvature of the TC---maybe use with the NRCS. 
  2)  Better intensification and specification of rain-related          effects, including use of the AMSR-E on ADEOS-II.
  3)  Improved automated ambiguity selection process or           development of a forecaster-interface procedure.
  4)  Validation and understanding of high wind speed and heavy rain characteristics using aircraft and dropwindsonde data.
  5)  Establishment of uniform operational procedures in TC      warning process (in cooperation with TC centers)—a Goal should be to meet ‘at least’ a standard of a well-defined center (PCN 3 or 4).       

-   1)  More precise (automated) ambiguity selection process in the high gradient curvature of the TC---maybe use with the NRCS.
-   2)  Better intensification and specification of rain-related          effects, including use of the AMSR-E on ADEOS-II.
-   3)  Improved automated ambiguity selection process or           development of a forecaster-interface procedure.
-   4)  Validation and understanding of high wind speed and heavy rain characteristics using aircraft and dropwindsonde data.
-   5)  Establishment of uniform operational procedures in TC      warning process (in cooperation with TC centers)—a Goal should be to meet ‘at least’ a standard of a well-defined center (PCN 3 or 4).

## In Operations: GOAL—To meet PCN 3-4 criteria

**PCN    CLASS    Mean Dev    SVD (nm)   1.52 SVD (nm) **
**                                  ****(nm)          (63%)               (90%)**
**1-2        Eye                 15            16.5                   25**
_**3-4  Well-defined**_**       ****20               26****                    ****40**
**5-6  Poorly-defined    30              36                    55 **

**TC Position Code Number (PCN) Accuracy**
**(Adapted from 1 WWP 105-10)**

**(This meets PCN 3-4)**

## A) An increase (continued) in global scatterometer coverage will:
	i) Provide more thorough input to the NWP assimilation     process
   ii) Fill in the remaining 10% gaps over the tropical oceans
   iii) Support the daily METWATCH and warning criteria of   most tropical cyclone warning centers
	   -- Early detection, motion and history
	   -- Position
	   -- Outer wind structure of destructive winds (34kt and    	50kt...maybe 64t)
	   -- Provide a ‘minimum’ (at least) maximum wind 	intensity	
	    -- Extratropical transition and dissipation
	iv) Increase the data base for the research community 

- 	i) Provide more thorough input to the NWP assimilation     process
-    ii) Fill in the remaining 10% gaps over the tropical oceans
-    iii) Support the daily METWATCH and warning criteria of   most tropical cyclone warning centers
- 	   -- Early detection, motion and history
- 	   -- Position
- 	   -- Outer wind structure of destructive winds (34kt and    	50kt...maybe 64t)
- 	   -- Provide a ‘minimum’ (at least) maximum wind 	intensity
- 	    -- Extratropical transition and dissipation
- 	iv) Increase the data base for the research community

## B) An increase in global scatterometer frequency will:
	i) Provide input for each 6-hourly NWP analysis cycle
	ii) Provide timely input to support the 6-hourly warning interval of most tropical cyclone warning centers
	iii) Provide vital data during rapid changes in tropical cyclone
          motion, structure and character (access w/I 30 minutes?)     -- Sudden changes in direction or speed, including rapid         acceleration cases
	     -- Movements over water from over land and rapid    	  	   development
	     -- Synoptic scale interaction with other synoptic-scale 	   	   features such as fronts or lows or in a multi-TC 	  	   situation
	     -- Initial development or change in warning criteria wind 	   radii (35kt, 50kt, or 64kt wind radii)     -- Rapid intensity change and existence or change in    	   tropical storm(34kt) or hurricane (64kt) wind intensity  	   criteria      -- Genesis and development of a closed circulation
         -- Extratropical transition and transformation of wind    	   structure 

- 	i) Provide input for each 6-hourly NWP analysis cycle
- 	ii) Provide timely input to support the 6-hourly warning interval of most tropical cyclone warning centers
- 	iii) Provide vital data during _rapid changes_ in tropical cyclone
-           motion, structure and character (access w/I 30 minutes?)     -- Sudden changes in direction or speed, including rapid         acceleration cases
- 	     -- Movements over water from over land and rapid    	  	   development
- 	     -- Synoptic scale interaction with other synoptic-scale 	   	   features such as fronts or lows or in a multi-TC 	  	   situation
- 	     -- Initial development or change in warning criteria wind 	   radii (35kt, 50kt, or 64kt wind radii)     -- Rapid intensity change and existence or change in    	   tropical storm(34kt) or hurricane (64kt) wind intensity  	   criteria      -- Genesis and development of a closed circulation
-          -- Extratropical transition and transformation of wind    	   structure

##         TC Research Topics with Scatterometer Data
1) Genesis:  Initial position and character of TC disturbance     can be more accurately ascertained in both time and space.
	a) Better understanding of origin and mechanisms for   	formation
	b) Character of incipient disturbance can be determined (i.e., 	wave, trough axis, pre-existing surface circulation)
	c) Interaction with the environment such as surges and surge 	location
2) Development and the early-stage intensification process:      Outer wind structure, position, and a ‘minimum’ (at least)       estimate for maximum intensity.
	 a)  Used with other data (such as microwave imagery or 	vertical profilers) will allow better understanding of mass 	and wind fields
     b)  Relationship of wind field with the convection
	 c)  Change in wind structure during life cycle and early-stage                     
          intensification process (also in relationship to other 	synoptic scale  features) 

**1) Genesis:**  Initial position and character of TC disturbance     can be more accurately ascertained in both time and space.
- 	a) Better understanding of origin and mechanisms for   	formation
- 	b) Character of incipient disturbance can be determined (i.e., 	wave, trough axis, pre-existing surface circulation)
- 	c) Interaction with the environment such as surges and surge 	location
**2) Development and the early-stage intensification process:**      Outer wind structure, position, and a ‘minimum’ (at least)       estimate for maximum intensity.
- 	 a)  Used with other data (such as microwave imagery or 	vertical profilers) will allow better understanding of mass 	and wind fields
-      b)  Relationship of wind field with the convection
- 	 c)  Change in wind structure during life cycle and early-stage
-           intensification process (also in relationship to other 	synoptic scale  features)

## 3) Motion: Scatterometer wind and directions over TC (in           combination with other remote sensing tools) give more        accurate positions over data- sparse regions of the globe.
	a) Can obtain complete best track of each TC for a TC data 	base and provide more thorough motion history, 	especially good during early stages where positioning 	and 	intensity accuracy is currently poor.
     b) Short-term motion as related to surrounding 	environmental wind flow
	c) Motion as related to asymmetric wind structure
	d) Multi-TC interaction, especially as TCs begin to approach 	each other
	d) Interaction with topography and multi-TC interaction
4) Extratropical transition: Movement of the surface feature and outer wind structure.
	a)  Examine change in outer wind structure as transition develops
	b)  Stratify with respect to different size and intensity TCs and 	their interaction with different extratropical features
	c)  Understand the dissipation process and understand the 	differences in situations for when the wind field weakens or 	strengthens

- 	a) Can obtain complete best track of each TC for a TC data 	base and provide more thorough motion history, 	especially good during early stages where positioning 	and 	intensity accuracy is currently poor.
-      b) Short-term motion as related to surrounding 	environmental wind flow
- 	c) Motion as related to asymmetric wind structure
- 	d) Multi-TC interaction, especially as TCs begin to approach 	each other
- 	d) Interaction with topography and multi-TC interaction
**4) Extratropical transition:** Movement of the surface feature and outer wind structure.
- 	a)  Examine change in outer wind structure as transition develops
- 	b)  Stratify with respect to different size and intensity TCs and 	their interaction with different extratropical features
- 	c)  Understand the dissipation process and understand the 	differences in situations for when the wind field weakens or 	strengthens

##  IWTC-V Endorsement Proposal (2002)

Future Requirements for (Increased) Global Scatterometer Coverage

	Statement: Current scatterometer daily coverage over the tropical waters is approximately 90%. The addition of  (maintenance of) another instrument similar to QuikSCAT with a similar swath width and offset by approximately 6 hours will provide a substantial benefit to the tropical cyclone operational and research community. Scatterometer instruments have shown to increase forecasting accuracy by providing extensive surface wind coverage in the assimilation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, by providing researchers with the necessary data to establish more precise physical concepts of behavior, and by providing tropical cyclone forecasters with increased knowledge in the data poor regions of the globe of position, outer wind structure, a ‘minimum’ (at least) maximum intensity, genesis and early stage development, and the evolution of the outer winds during extratropical transition.                                                                                  

**Future Requirements for (Increased) Global Scatterometer Coverage**
- 	**Statement:** Current scatterometer daily coverage over the tropical waters is approximately 90%. The addition of  (maintenance of) another instrument similar to QuikSCAT with a similar swath width and offset by approximately 6 hours will provide a substantial benefit to the tropical cyclone operational and research community. Scatterometer instruments have shown to increase forecasting accuracy by providing extensive surface wind coverage in the assimilation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, by providing researchers with the necessary data to establish more precise physical concepts of behavior, and by providing tropical cyclone forecasters with increased knowledge in the data poor regions of the globe of position, outer wind structure, a ‘minimum’ (at least) maximum intensity, genesis and early stage development, and the evolution of the outer winds during extratropical transition.

##       Typhoon Vamei (32W)—Record setting tropical cyclone
Use of combinations of MI Data

-    History of TC can be traced from vortex off of Borneo on 24/00Z
MI and SCAT allow for identification at an earlier stage of development than  with more traditional data
Synoptic data supplemented with scatterometer offers a suggested mechanism  for development via wind surges in both the NH and SH 

**Use of combinations of MI Data**
- -    **History of TC can be traced from vortex off of Borneo on 24/00Z**
**MI and SCAT allow for identification at an earlier stage of development than  with more traditional data**
**Synoptic data supplemented with scatterometer offers a suggested mechanism  for development via wind surges in both the NH and SH **

**TRMM 37 GHz                                  QuikSCAT**

- (see discussion on ambiguity selection)

## The Many Uses of the NRCS DATA

**The Many Uses of the NRCS DATA**

**Eye Cycle**

**Genesis/positioning**

**Small-scale**
**Land/sea interaction**

## Discussion?