# Presentation: 826716

## The NCEP Climate Forecast System Status and PlansHua-Lu Pan and Suru SahaEMC/NCEP

## Status
Current CFS system was implemented in 2004
GFS2003 + MOM3
Direct coupling once a day
Daily four 9-month forecasts
One-day delay
Initial State
Atmosphere : R2
Ocean : GODAS driven by R2
14-day lag for final GODAS which drives the real-time ocean analysis

- Current CFS system was implemented in 2004
- GFS2003 + MOM3
- Direct coupling once a day
- Daily four 9-month forecasts
- One-day delay
- Initial State
- Atmosphere : R2
- Ocean : GODAS driven by R2
- 14-day lag for final GODAS which drives the real-time ocean analysis

## Calibrations and skill estimates 
Hindcast using the same system completed prior to implementation
1981 to 2007 but are continuing due to the slight differences in hindcast and real time designs
CPC blends all forecasts based on the skill estimates
It has become a product heavily used by CPC
We are gaining converts from climate folks who did not believe dynamic models can have any skills in seasonal forecasts

- Hindcast using the same system completed prior to implementation
- 1981 to 2007 but are continuing due to the slight differences in hindcast and real time designs
- CPC blends all forecasts based on the skill estimates
- It has become a product heavily used by CPC
- We are gaining converts from climate folks who did not believe dynamic models can have any skills in seasonal forecasts

## Honest assessments

Skills in predicting the ENSO indices exist (however, it seems every model can predict strong events six months in advance)
Skills in US temperature and precipitation prediction is low and lower
It may take a long time to make advances
We compare this version of the CFS to the Barotropic models of the NWP era. Not sure if the comparison is adequate yet.
We believe in taking small but scientifically sound steps to move forward using GFS and GDAS as base

- Skills in predicting the ENSO indices exist (however, it seems every model can predict strong events six months in advance)
- Skills in US temperature and precipitation prediction is low and lower
- It may take a long time to make advances
- We compare this version of the CFS to the Barotropic models of the NWP era. Not sure if the comparison is adequate yet.
- We believe in taking small but scientifically sound steps to move forward using GFS and GDAS as base

## CFSRR
We are starting to work towards an implementation of the next CFS in 2011
Reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice, using a coupled background guess forecast
Reforecasts using the same model used in the reanalysis
Real time data assimilation and forecast will use the same system as the reanalysis and reforecast

- We are starting to work towards an implementation of the next CFS in 2011
- Reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice, using a coupled background guess forecast
- Reforecasts using the same model used in the reanalysis
- Real time data assimilation and forecast will use the same system as the reanalysis and reforecast

## CFSRR Plan (I)
Reanalysis
Using the CFS as the model to provide the first guess to the data assimilation of atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice
Using the highest resolution we can afford (we did dream big hoping that we will get mist and dew when the power 6 machine arrives)
Using the newest data assimilation and model versions tested (drawbacks do exist)

- Reanalysis
- Using the CFS as the model to provide the first guess to the data assimilation of atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice
- Using the highest resolution we can afford (we did dream big hoping that we will get mist and dew when the power 6 machine arrives)
- Using the newest data assimilation and model versions tested (drawbacks do exist)

## Reanalysis
T382L64 for atmosphere with GSI, 0.25 - 0.5 degree 40 layer ocean with stronger SST constraint, NOAH land model plus observed precipitation for GLDAS, extend the new sea-ice analysis back to 1979
Coupling is on ocean and ice-atmosphere time steps
All satellite instruments calibrated using 3-month spin up runs.
Calibrated SSU and MSU data included
Running on Haze (5-6 streams since June 2008)
CPC has developed and undertaken close monitoring of the CFSR
We have, within our limit, tried to correct mistakes. A few glitches, which would have necessitated complete restarts, have been left as features.

- T382L64 for atmosphere with GSI, 0.25 - 0.5 degree 40 layer ocean with stronger SST constraint, NOAH land model plus observed precipitation for GLDAS, extend the new sea-ice analysis back to 1979
- Coupling is on ocean and ice-atmosphere time steps
- All satellite instruments calibrated using 3-month spin up runs.
- Calibrated SSU and MSU data included
- Running on Haze (5-6 streams since June 2008)
- CPC has developed and undertaken close monitoring of the CFSR
- We have, within our limit, tried to correct mistakes. A few glitches, which would have necessitated complete restarts, have been left as features.

## CFSRR Production Configuration
Covers 31 years (1979-2009) + 25 overlap months
6 Simultaneous Streams
Jan 1979 – Dec 1985		7 years 1982/06
Nov 1985 – Feb 1989		3 years 1987/03
Jan 1989 – Feb 1994		5 years 1990/07
Jan 1994 – Dec 1998		5 years 1995/07
Apr 1998 – Dec 2004             6 years 2002/04
Apr 2004 – Dec 2009		5 years 2007/01
overlap months are for ocean and land spin ups

**Covers 31 years (1979-2009) + 25 overlap months**
**6 Simultaneous Streams**
**Jan 1979 – Dec 1985****	****	****7 years 1982/06**
**Nov 1985 – Feb 1989****	****	****3 years 1987/03**
**Jan 1989 – Feb 1994****	****	****5 years 1990/07**
**Jan 1994 – Dec 1998****	****	****5 years 1995/07**
**Apr 1998 – Dec 2004             6 years 2002/04**
**Apr 2004 – Dec 2009****	****	****5 years 2007/01**
**overlap months are for ocean and land spin ups**

## Reforecast
All coupled reforecasts will be run at T126L64 resolution 
9-month hindcasts will be initiated every 5th day and will be run from all 4 cycles of that day, beginning Jan 1 of every year, over a 28 year period from 1982-2009.  
In addition, there will be a single 35-day hindcast run initiated from every cycle between these five days, over the entire period. 

- All coupled reforecasts will be run at T126L64 resolution
- 9-month hindcasts will be initiated every 5th day and will be run from all 4 cycles of that day, beginning Jan 1 of every year, over a 28 year period from 1982-2009.
- In addition, there will be a single 35-day hindcast run initiated from every cycle between these five days, over the entire period.

## MID JANUARY SEASONAL RELEASE (24 members)

| 
Month | Day | Hour |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 12 | 12 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |
| 12 | 17 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |
| 12 | 22 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |
| 12 | 27 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |
| 1 | 1 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |
| 1 | 6 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |

**JANUARY MONTHLY (35-DAY) HINDCAST SCHEDULE**

| 
Month | Day | Hour |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 12 | 27 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |
| 12 | 28 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |
| 12 | 29 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |
| 12 | 30 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |
| 12 | 31 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |
| 1 | 1 | 0, 6, 12, 18 |

## Reforecast
Initially, make complete reforecast for CPC’s mid-May and mid-November forecast release, to assess skill. Once we can demonstrate comparable or better skills for ENSO, US temperature and precip for winter and summer forecasts, we can start the implementation process
Forecasts generated from high resolution data assimilation may allow for a useful monthly forecast product for CPC. Month one in the CPC parlance is really week3 – week 6 forecast

- Initially, make complete reforecast for CPC’s mid-May and mid-November forecast release, to assess skill. Once we can demonstrate comparable or better skills for ENSO, US temperature and precip for winter and summer forecasts, we can start the implementation process
- Forecasts generated from high resolution data assimilation may allow for a useful monthly forecast product for CPC. Month one in the CPC parlance is really week3 – week 6 forecast

## Real Time Configuration for next CFS
There will be 4 control runs per day, out to 9 months, from the 0, 6, 12 and 18 UTC cycles of the CFS real-time data assimilation system.
In addition to the control run, there will be 3 additional runs per cycle, out to 35 days. These 3 runs per cycle will be initialized as in current operations.
There will be a total of 16 runs every day out to 35 days (weeks 1-5), four of which will go out to 9 months (monthly and seasonal)

- There will be 4 control runs per day, out to 9 months, from the 0, 6, 12 and 18 UTC cycles of the CFS real-time data assimilation system.
- In addition to the control run, there will be 3 additional runs per cycle, out to 35 days. These 3 runs per cycle will be initialized as in current operations.
- There will be a total of 16 runs every day out to 35 days (weeks 1-5), four of which will go out to 9 months (monthly and seasonal)

## CFSRR Computer Configurations for Retrospective Forecasts

- 75 Compute7 Class 1
- 100 TB

- Zephyr
- 16 Compute
- 1 Class 1
- 40 TB

- Mist
- 140 Compute
- 8 Class 1
- 75 TB

- Dew
- 140 Compute
- 8 Class 1
- 75 TB

*3 Streams*

*28 Streams*

*28 Streams*

*15 Streams*

*Number of 9 month Hindcasts to be made is 292 per year X 28 years = 8176*

_**CFSRR Computer Configurations for Retrospective Forecasts**_

*Legend of available systems:*

- Each one-year run on power 5 requires 5 nodes for 40 hours

*Number of extra 35-day Hindcasts to be made is 1196 per year X 28 years = 33488 (~ 4000 9-month runs)*

## Resources

Human resources
Funding
Computer

- Human resources
- Funding
- Computer

## Human resources

- Suru Saha is the leader of the group who maintain the continuous running of the reanalysis and the reforecast
- Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga and Patrick Tripp do the actual monitoring of jobs and runs
- S. Moorthi built the reanalysis and reforecast scripts from end to end
- Suru and Patrick Tripp built the scripts for HPSS archives
- Jack Woollen provides most of the observation support
- Bob Kistler provides overall support of the reanalysis
- CPC formed four teams of about 20 people to provide monitoring of the reanalysis
- Huiya and Wesley provided continued support for the NCEP post and the GRIB2 conversions
- Xingren worked on the ice model and assimilation, Jiande worked on the checkout of MOM4 for our configuration
- Jun Wang worked with Xingren to produce the MOM4-GFS coupler
- Lidia helped with the assimilation and evaluation of CHAMP and COSMIC data

## Human resources (II)

- Haixia Liu from the data assimilation group provided help with the satellite instrument bias estimates
- Glenn White has provided diagnostics of the stratus
- Diane Stokes provided SST data support as well as general data support
- Dave Behringer provided GODAS
- Jesse, Ken and the NOAH land team provided GLDAS
- Bob Grumbine provided sea ice analysis
- NESDIS provided recalibrated SSU and MSU data (Goldberg’s team)
- Yutai Hou provided CO2 changes as well as codes to incorporate the CO2 changes
- Paul van Delst updated the CRTM for all the instruments
- Several people from the assimilation team (Daryl and Russ in particular) helped with the initial set up and running of the GSI
- Pingping Xie and others from CPC provided the gauge only global precip data for GLDAS
- George Gayno provided snow analysis with guidance from Ken
- Computing support from Doris, Carolyn and George are crucial

## Funding

- Funding is provided by the Climate Program Office for reanalysis, ocean data assimilation and climate forecasting
- Funding for Reanalysis should continue. As there are other reanalysis proposals within NOAA, our shares of the funding may change. We hope to fund three positions for data collection, data assimilation, and transfer of corporate experience

## Computer

- CFS upgrade can only be done when there is a computer upgrade
- Only way to do the reanalysis and reforecast is to leverage the usage of old computers after EMC and NCO migrated to the new ones
- R&D computer is helpful but not sufficient
- Delivery of the milestone depends entirely on the availability of the computers
- Reanalysis is run entirely on Haze

## What’s new

- New data:
- SST, SSU, AMMA, CO2
- New assimilation system:
- GSI with FOTO; GODAS with strong SST constraint and asymmetric data window, GLDAS with observed precip; simple sea-ice initialization using observed ice fraction
- New model:
- The package that was in parallel in 2007 for GFS
- Key portion is RRTM short-wave which allowed for easy CO2 updates
- MOM4 with a sea-ice model
- NOAH for land

## Anticipated improvements

- R1 had a very quiet tropics and R2 had a very noisy tropics
- The GFS system since 2000 has shown a much improved tropical analysis
- Tropical ocean is crucial to the seasonal prediction so better forcing from the atmosphere should lead to better ocean analysis
- This benefit can start in week two and go to monthly and seasonal
- We plan to interact with CPC to evaluate the monthly hindcasts and the skill estimate issues

## Problems encountered

- New data
- SST and sea ice mask problems
- Sea ice over land and sea
- AMMA data issue
- New model
- Stratus
- New assimilation system
- QBO, SAO and background error estimates
- New compiler
- A bug was introduced when converting to new compiler. Took a long time to realize and correct
- Human resource issue
- 24/7 monitoring takes the toll. The length of the project becomes an issue if we suffer delays in the production
- Computer resource issue
- Delays of the computer upgrade continues to cause delays in our planned implementation

## Samples of the monitoring of the reanalysis

## Web site for monitors

## Monitoring of 5-day forecast skill (500 hPa height anomaly correlation) for 2005

- Green line is operational GFS at high resolution, black line is CFSRR with forecast made at T126, Red line is with CFS system but with both data assimilation and forecasts done at T62 with a yearly cold start)

## Monitoring of 5-day forecast skill (500 hPa height anomaly correlation) for 1980

- Black line is CFSRR with forecast made at T126, Red line is with CFS system but with both data assimilation and forecasts done at T62 with a yearly cold start)

## Sample of daily monitor of the reanalysis using short-range forecast skill to check

## Comparing analysis with other reanalysis results. Here the comparison is with R2

## Comparing analysis with other reanalysis results. Here the comparison is with era40

## Monitoring MJO in the data assimilation system against R1, R2, and era40 against R1 climatology

## Slide 30

## CFSRR

- GFS operational

- Monitoring of fits of analysis and first guess to surface observations showed improved fit of the CFSRR over the then operational system
- (12-48 hour forecasts for CFSRR were made with lower resolution so gives slightly worse fits to obs)

## Monitoring land surface temperature against independent observations

## Monitoring land surface energy balance

## Monitoring sea ice distribution against data used in operation

## Monitoring SST against OISST

## Monitoring depth of 20C against offline analysis