# Presentation: 369405

## Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

_***Dr. Frank Marks***_***                          NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory***
***&***
***Cochair, Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research  ***

## Background
Plan Overview
Key Findings and Recommendations
Summary / Next Step

**Plan Overview**
**Key Findings and Recommendations**
**Summary / Next Step**

**Overview**

## Background

**Impetus for this plan**
**Principal action item, agreed upon by the participants in the 58th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) ****(March 2004)**
**To develop comprehensive strategy for tropical cyclone research and development to guide interagency efforts over the next decade**
**Meeting of Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR) ****(November 2004)**** **
**Strongly supported action (action item 2004-2.7)**
**Meeting of the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) ****(December 2004)**** **
**The senior interagency policy decision body advising OFCM, the IHC, and ICMSSR**
**Actions discussed and supported**
**Federal Coordinator formed Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR) ****(February 2005)**

## Background

**48-hour forecasts since 1985**
**Track:****	****improved 3.5% per year on average**
**Intensity:****	****improved 0.8% per year on average**

**Track Guidance Errors (n mi)**
**(1985 – 2006) (Atlantic Basin)**

**Intensity Guidance Errors (kt) (1985 – 2006) (Atlantic Basin)**

**Why More Improvements?**

## Background

**High population density: local officials need ~72 hrs to implement evacuation actions**

**Background**

**Why More Improvements?**

## Plan Overview

**Interagency tropical cyclone plan that encompasses all applicable Federal agencies**
**Grass-roots-up approach to meet the needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers**
**Tropical Prediction Center / National Hurricane Center (TPC / NHC)**
**Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)**
**Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)**
**Needs characterized by seven tropical cyclone-related, day-to-day operational forecast and warning categories**
**Track**
**Intensity**
**Structure**
**Sea state**

**Storm surge**
**Precipitation**
**Observations**

## Key Findings & Recommendations

**Tropical cyclone research**
**Section 5.1 and Table 5-1: atmospheric / oceanic-related priorities**
**Section 5.2: Climate (interseasonal, interannual, and longer-term variability)**
**Section 5.3 and Appendix P: social sciences**
**JAG/TCR recommends:**
**Strong support for activities focused on research identified in Chapter 5**
**Social science research be an integral part of hurricane forecast and warning program**

## Key Findings & Recommendations

**Significant gaps in meeting ****observation requirements****; JAG/TCR advocates supporting / developing / acquiring capabilities in following areas:**
**Hurricane core observations from airborne Doppler radar**
**Tropospheric winds**
**Ocean surface vector winds—for use by tropical cyclone forecasters and in tropical cyclone NWP systems  (i.e., QuickSCAT replacement)**
**Accurately measure the 3-D global wind field to optimally specify global initial conditions for NWP forecasts and much improved tropical cyclone track forecasts**
**Satellite altimetry**
**NPOESS ALT instrument cancelled**
**Above capabilities essential for meeting operational needs of the tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers  **

## Key Findings & Recommendations

**Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling                (i.e., computer models) and data assimilation**
**Increased skill in forecasting intensity and structure, sea state and storm surge, and precipitation is now on the horizon, much as improving track forecast skill was two decades or so ago**
**To meet operational needs, the Nation must be committed to supporting the key following areas:**
**Advanced observations and observing strategies**
**Advanced data assimilation technologies**
**Advanced NWP models**
**Investment in human and infrastructure resources**
**Development of next-generation *****operational***** hurricane forecast systems should be a National priority**
**NOAA: NCEP GFS & HWRF Air-Sea-Land Hurricane Prediction System**
**U.S. Navy: NOGAPS & COAMPS Tropical Cyclone System**

## Key Findings & Recommendations

**NWP modeling and data assimilation ****(continued)**
**Development efforts of next-generation hurricane forecast systems**
**Should **_**form basis**_** for projects supporting hurricane research and collaboration among experts from:**
**Academia**
**International researchers**
**Private sector**
**Other Federal agencies**
**Sufficient human / infrastructure resources should be provided for:**
**Development of advanced data assimilation & NWP modeling systems**
**Operational NWP computing**

## JAG/TCR Estimated Additional Funding ($ Millions)

**Key Findings & Recommendations**

| Rec.
 No. | Recommendation Summary | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1a | Development of advanced data assimilation and NWP modeling systems; Transition of research to operations | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| 2a | Atmospheric- and ocean-related research, including analyses of field experiment data sets | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 1b | Operational NWP computing (NCEP and FNMOC) | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| 2a | Social science research | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
|  | TOTAL | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 75 | 75 | 70 | 70 | 70 |

**Fiscal Year**

_**Development of Advanced DA and NWP Models:**_ **(Chapter 4 & Appendices I-M)**** **Improvements to global atmospheric models (GFS & NOGAPS) and high-resolution, regional models (HWRF & COAMPS); improvements in atmospheric and ocean data assimilation; implementing Earth System Modeling Framework (increase model component interoperability); improvements to ocean models (e.g., HYCOM; NCOM); implement / improve multi-grid WAVEWATCH III (MWW3) (movable/nested); dynamic storm surge model coupling to regional, high-resolution TC models; coupling of the Land Surface Model with regional, high resolution TC models; evaluate/verify wind and precipitation output.
_**Transition of Research to Operations**_**:** Increased funding for: computing power for parallel model systems (test and evaluate) and testbeds (Joint Hurricane Testbed, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, and Developmental Testbed Center)

**Notes:**
Speaking of additional investments in the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning program, this slide contains the JAG’s estimate of additional funding required to continue advancing tropical cyclone science and operational capabilities 
As stated in the plan:
Further improvements to the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning service are feasible, within reach, and valuable investments for our safety, security, and economic well-being
Vast improvements in tropical cyclone prediction are attainable with focused research efforts; enhanced transition of research to operations capabilities; strong interagency partnerships, coordination, and planning; and most importantly, sufficient resources—both human and infrastructure (e.g., computational power, network bandwidth, architectural/ engineering requirements, and maintenance of applicable systems).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Development ($30M):
Data assimilation and NWP models: improvements to global models and high-resolution, regional models; improvements in atmospheric and ocean data assimilation; implementing ESMF; improvements to ocean models (e.g., HYCOM); Multi-grid WAVEWATCH III (MWW3) (movable/nested); dynamic storm surge coupling to regional, high-resolution TC models; coupling of the Land Surface Model  with regional, high resolution TC models; evaluate/verification of wind and precipitation output, etc. etc. (Appendix M)
Transition of research to ops: increased funding for: computing power for parallel model systems (test and evaluate); other testbeds (JHT, JCSDA); and possibly for the Developmental Testbed Center to increase academia involvement 
 Atmospheric and oceanic-related research: $15M
Chapter 5 research priorities
Operational NWP computing (FNMOC and NCEP): $15M each 

## Recommendation to ICMSSR

**Develop 10-year, multi-agency tropical cyclone research **_**implementation**_** plan, outlining specific actions / strategies to address research priorities**
**Draft NWP model development improvement plan that:**
**Includes procedures to enhance the flow of relevant research focused on improvements to the operational NWP systems**
**Enhances the conduit by which the academic community could be involved (e.g., through Joint Hurricane Testbed, Developmental Testbed Center)**
**Accounts for having sufficient human and infrastructure resources for development work and transition of research to operations activities **
**Develop tropical cyclone observation improvement plan (e.g., observations from manned / unmanned aircraft, satellites, in-situ)**

**Recommendation to ICMSSR**

## Summary / Next Step

**Interagency plan:**
**Presents comprehensive roadmap of activities to further improve the effectiveness of the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning service during the next decade and beyond**
**Resounding consensus from approximately 200 participants at recent Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (March 5-9, 2007)  **
**Plan is complemented by and consistent in many aspects with other concurrent hurricane research reports/plans**
**NOAA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group (HIRWG)**
**National Science Board’s Task Force on Hurricane Science and Engineering (HSE)**
**Next Step: Form new OFCM Working Group**
**Seeking ICMSSR support**

## QUESTIONS?

**QUESTIONS?**

## Backup slides

**Backup slides**

## Background

**High population density: local officials need ~72 hrs to implement evacuation actions**

**Background**

**Why More Improvements?**

## Background

**48-hour forecasts since 1985**
**Track:****	****improved 3.5% per year on average**
**Intensity:****	****improved 0.8% per year on average**

**Track Guidance Errors (n mi)**
**(1985 – 2006)**

**Intensity Guidance Errors (kt) (1985 – 2006)**

**Why More Improvements?**

## Background

**Complexity: Track vs. Intensity**

**Hurricane track is influenced primarily by ****large-scale****                                (> 1000 km) processes**
**Hurricane intensity is influenced primarily by ****small-scale****            (< 10 km) processes, such as air-sea interaction**
**Hurricane intensity is a difficult observational, scientific, computer modeling, and forecasting challenge**
**Solution:**
**High-resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model**
**Inherent higher costs to solve intensity challenge**
**Making progress**
**For the first time, the **_**dynamical**_** intensity guidance for the Atlantic basin in 2006 was better to the **_**statistical**_** guidance on average**

## Background

**48-hour forecasts since 1985**
**Track:****	****improved 3.5% per year on average**
**Intensity:****	****improved 0.8% per year on average**

**Track Guidance Errors (n mi)**
**(1985 – 2006)**

**Intensity Guidance Errors (kt) (1985 – 2006)**

**Why More Improvements?**

## Background

| Dr. Frank Marks
OAR (NOAA/DOC) | Ms. Robbie Hood
MSFC (NASA) |
| --- | --- |
| Dr. James Goerss
NRL (Navy/DOD) | Dr. Naomi Surgi
NWS (NOAA/DOC) |
| Colonel Mike Babcock
HQ AF (AF/DOD)  | Dr. Ramesh Kakar
Science Msn Directorate (NASA) |
| Dr. Stephan Nelson
Physical & Dynamic Met. (NSF) | Mr. John Gambel
Mitigation Division (FEMA/DHS) |
| Dr. Jack Davis
U.S. Army COE (Army/DOD) | Dr. Chris Landsea
NWS (NOAA/DOC) |
| Mr. Jeffrey Hawkins
NRL (Navy/DOD) | Dr. Mark DeMaria
NESDIS (NOAA/DOC) |

**JAG/TCR**

**Background**

## Background

| Dr. Ronald Ferek
ONR (Navy/DOD) | Lt Col Bob Falvey
Director, JTWC |
| --- | --- |
| Dr. James McFadden
OMAO/AOC (NOAA/DOC) | Dr. Scott Braun
GSFC (NASA) |
| Dr. Daniel Melendez
NWS (NOAA/DOC)  | Mr. Scott Kiser
NWS (NOAA/DOC) |
| Mr. Mark Welshinger
OFCM (NOAA/DOC) |  |
|  |  |
| Dr. Russ Elsberry
NPS (Navy/DOD) (SME) | Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow
(SME) |

**JAG/TCR**

**Background**

## Structure of the Strategic Research Plan

**Chapter 1**
**Makes case for additional improvements**
**Introduces:**
**Operational community to include:**
**Three operational tropical cyclone forecast and                 warning centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC**
**Operational NWP modeling centers: NCEP/EMC and               Navy NRL/FNMOC**
**R&D community**
**Chapter 2**
**Provides more in-depth review of tropical cyclone community**
**Reviews major previous work from which to build on **

**Tropical Cyclone Community of Practice**

## Structure of the Strategic Research Plan

**Examines current capability and limitations of Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning system**
**End-to-end review of “system”**
**Includes data collection, data assimilation and NWP modeling, forecasting and warning, transition of research to operations, end user education, training, and outreach)      **
**Chapter 4**
**Summarizes the operational needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC**
**Table 4-1**
**Presents planned capabilities to meet the operational needs**
**End-to-end review**

**Structure of the Strategic Research Plan**

## Structure of the Strategic Research Plan

**Presents research priorities to aid in meeting the needs of the operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers**
**Chapter 6**
**Key findings**
**Recommendations**

**Structure of the Strategic Research Plan**

## JAG/TCR Estimated Additional Funding ($ Millions)

**Key Findings & Recommendations**

| Rec.
 No. | Recommendation Summary | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1a | Development of advanced data assimilation and NWP modeling systems; Transition of research to operations | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| 2a | Atmospheric- and ocean-related research, including analyses of field experiment data sets | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 1b | Operational NWP computing (NCEP and FNMOC) | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| 2a | Social science research | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
|  | TOTAL | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 75 | 75 | 70 | 70 | 70 |

**Fiscal Year**

**Notes:**
Speaking of additional investments in the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning program, this slide contains the JAG’s estimate of additional funding required to continue advancing tropical cyclone science and operational capabilities 
As stated in the plan:
Further improvements to the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning service are feasible, within reach, and valuable investments for our safety, security, and economic well-being
Vast improvements in tropical cyclone prediction are attainable with focused research efforts; enhanced transition of research to operations capabilities; strong interagency partnerships, coordination, and planning; and most importantly, sufficient resources—both human and infrastructure (e.g., computational power, network bandwidth, architectural/ engineering requirements, and maintenance of applicable systems).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Development ($30M):
Data assimilation and NWP models: improvements to global models and high-resolution, regional models; improvements in atmospheric and ocean data assimilation; implementing ESMF; improvements to ocean models (e.g., HYCOM); Multi-grid WAVEWATCH III (MWW3) (movable/nested); dynamic storm surge coupling to regional, high-resolution TC models; coupling of the Land Surface Model  with regional, high resolution TC models; evaluate/verification of wind and precipitation output, etc. etc. (Appendix M)
Transition of research to ops: increased funding for: computing power for parallel model systems (test and evaluate); other testbeds (JHT, JCSDA); and possibly for the Developmental Testbed Center to increase academia involvement 
 Atmospheric and oceanic-related research: $15M
Chapter 5 research priorities
Operational NWP computing (FNMOC and NCEP): $15M each