# Presentation: 531979

## GLERL’s Hydrology Program

- 	**Thomas E. Croley II**	 **Chansheng He**
- 	Cynthia Sellinger
- 	Timothy S. Hunter	 **Carlo DeMarchi**
- 	Margaret Lansing	 Donna Kashian
- 	Ann H. Clites	 Tom Johengen
- 		 Tomas Höök
- 	 David Schwab 	 Nathan Bosch
- 	 Craig Stow	 David Allan
- 	 Stuart Ludsin 	 Ed Rutherford
- 		 Donald Scavia
- 	 Robyn Boeke	 Mike Wylie
- 	 Nathan Geisler	 David K. Rea
- 	 David Salomon
- GLERL Internal Project Review
- December 10—11, 2007
- Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, NOAA
- 2205 Commonwealth Blvd., Ann Arbor, Michigan  48105-2945

## Next Generation Large Basin Runoff Model	46%

- 	Watershed/Lake linkages for beach closing forecasts (CEGLHH)
- 	Great Lakes Resource Shed Delineation (CEGLHH, NYSG)
- 	Forecasts of Hypoxia & Ecological Effects (ECOFOR: NOAA/CSCOR/COP)
- 	Saginaw Bay watersheds: Multiple Stressors Impacts (NOAA/CSCOR/COP)
- 	Saginaw Bay watersheds: climate change, land use, & invasive species (EPA/STAR)
- Great Lakes Sensitivity to Climatic Forcing (old NSF)	17%
- Improving DLBRM Capabilities (DeMarchi)	25%
- Coupling QPE & GL Hydrologic Models (DeMarchi)	8%
- Lake Erie Yellow Perch Recruitment Predictor (Ludsin)	2%

## Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model @ Pixel Level

- Schematic applies to each 1 km2 cell of watershed
- 		cascade of storage “tanks” (linear reservoirs)
- 		independent evaporation—potential evaporation
- 		variable area infiltration
- 		degree-day snowmelt
- Tank outflows are inflows to downstream tanks
- 		flow routing determined by elevations
- 		discretized watersheds to 1 km2 resolution

**Notes:**
The DLBRM is a spatially-distributed accounting of moisture in several layers, represented by a cascade of storage tanks.  We used independent potential and actual evapotranspiration, appropriate for small areas.  For every 1 sq. km. cell of a watershed, we considered lateral flows between like layers in adjacent cells: surface, upper, lower, and groundwater zones.

## Grand River Watershed (Lake Michigan)

- Built maps of observable watershed characteristics
-   • elevation, slope, roughness, soil texture, land cover,
-   • upper/lower soil zone water capacity, thickness, & permeability;
-   • later, nonpoint pollution surveys

**Elevation**

**USZ Permeability**

**USZ AWC**

**LSZ Permeability**

**LSZ AWC**

**Manure N loading**

**Manure P205 loading**

- Calibrate
-  •   define spatial variation of model parameters
-         use observable watershed characteristics
-  •   search for spatial mean parameter values
-         minimize RMSE of model & actual flows

**Notes:**
We used a gradient search technique to minimize RMSE between modeled and actual basin outflow by selecting the best values of the spatial average of each parameter; the spatial variation of each parameter was taken proportional to a selected watershed characteristic, as shown here.

We also wrote the mass conservation equations for a conservative pollutant throughout the tank cascade.

The analytical solution of both water and pollutant conservation becomes complex.  We choose instead a finite difference numerical solution and have demonstrated convergence.

## Slide 5

**Notes:**
Recent Work. We reviewed available watershed water quality models.  We applied the DLBRM to several new Great Lakes watersheds, discretizing and compiling databases of watershed characteristics and meteorology for 18 watersheds and calibrating the daily model to nine.  We began modifying the model from a daily time step to an hourly one.  We are using actual hourly meteorology and runoff data to calibrate the hourly distributed watershed model in the Maumee watershed.  We compared model predictions on the Maumee with an experimental field study of the movement of SF6.  Finally, we gathered information on Saginaw Bay watershed pollutants. 

## Basic Model Application Databases

**Notes:**
We compiled soil and elevation parameters and 1991-1992 land use for 30 watersheds.  We just updated land use parameters to 2001 and added soil erosion parameters for all 30.  We built databases of daily and hourly meteorology for 1948-2006 and 1997-2006 respectively for all 30 watersheds.

## Daily Model Calibrations

**Notes:**
DLBRM Hydrological Development.  We built the three-dimensional daily and hourly DLBRM, calibrated the daily version to 18 Great Lake watersheds for 1950-1964, and calibrated/verified it for all 18 for 1999-2002/2003-2005.  All are useful to hydrological modelers, water resource managers, and ecological forecasters and are available now.

## Hourly Model Calibrations

**Notes:**
We applied the hourly version to 3 Great Lakes watersheds.

## Non-Point Source Areal Surveys

**Notes:**
We reprocessed databases for manure, fertilizer, and pesticides and re-estimated nutrient loadings for the Saginaw Bay watersheds, the Grand (Michigan), the Kalamazoo, and the Maumee watersheds, and compiled new databases for manure, fertilizer, pesticides, and nutrients for 11 new watersheds; all are useful to water quality modelers and managers of nonpoint source pollutants and are available now.

## In-Stream & Point Sources Data

**Notes:**
We expanded the DLBRM to transport conservative dissolved pollutants, reviewed watershed water quality models, gathered data on in-stream sediment, nutrients, microbes, and water temperature in 8 watersheds and built sediment-discharge relations in two [Grand (Michigan), Saginaw], nutrient-discharge relations in one (Saginaw), and temperature-discharge relations in another [Grand (Michigan)].

We compiled point-source data from three states, and built point-source maps and river cross-section estimates based on discharge area for these 8 watersheds; all are useful to water resource managers, ecological forecasters, and both watershed and lake beach managers and are available now.

## Water Quality Forecasting

- Regression models
- Forecast water quality parameters using as input season, discharge, temperature, precipitation
- Operational (short term, present climate and land use)
- Transport models
- Forecast water quality parameters using a detailed survey of pollutant sources in the watershed and mass/energy transport equations
- Operation and planning (long term, different climate and land use scenarios)

## Resource Shed Defined with Multiple Loading Simulations

- Maumee resource shed on January 1, 1950 from one and seven days previous loadings

**0                                 0.03%**

- 1 day

- 31 day

- Outlet

- Outlet

**Notes:**
A resource shed is the source area for material passing through a location of interest over a given time period.  A resource shed distribution shows the material density (shown here for water for the Maumee River in Northern Ohio at the western end of Lake Erie; it covers 17,541 km2).  We can build resource sheds for water, sediment, nutrients, contaminants, microbes, or other if we have observations of the spatial distribution of the materials, observations on outflows of the materials, and knowledge of their transport.  Resource sheds then become a tool to track events back to their source areas, thus aiding in identification of problem areas and their management.

## Linked Maumee & Western Basin Site 835 August 31 Resource Sheds

- 1 day

- 1 week

- 2 weeks

- 3 weeks

- 4 weeks

- 0

- 0.5e-5

- LOI

**Notes:**
Objective: Delineate resource sheds for locations within the Great Lakes including extension into watersheds
Shown here are coupled resource shed densities for material originating over the indicated periods ending on August 31 and passing through the LOI over that same period.  The color scale on each plot is the same.

## http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/Programs/pep/resourceshed/maps.php

**Notes:**
Objective: Disseminate Resource Shed maps to user via web portal
Currently: Daily Lake Erie Maumee Watershed % moisture images and data files available for download 

Next: Add16 additional watersheds  % moisture images and data - all Great Lakes represented 
Future: Other resource shed parameters (e.g. pollutant, sediment)

## Slide 15

**Notes:**
Resource Sheds are aiding in explaining correlations between Maumee River Flows and Yellow Perch recruitment.

## Grand River Hydrology & Water Quality Model Objectives

- Grand River

- Forecasts for:
-   • Discharge
-   • Water Temperature
-   • Fecal Coliforms
-   • Sediments
-   • Other pollutants
- Objective:
- Link Watershed Model Forecast to Circulation Model Forecast to Predict Beach Closings

## Grand River Watershed Simulation

- 4 FPS

## GLERL’s Short-term Deterministic Outflow Forecast uses:

- Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM)
- Observed meteorology for period prior to forecast
- Initial moisture storage conditions for DLBRM
- Forecast meteorology from NWS for forecast period
- Streamflow gauge data from USGS
- Materials transport models

- Observed Meteorology

- DLBRM

- Stream Outflow and Water Quality Forecasts

- Forecast Meteorology

- Initial Storages

- Gauge Data

**Notes:**
Implemented for Grand River watershed for use with Lake Michigan circulation modeling.  Now adding sediment, nutrient, temperature, and microbe (1) flows and transport: (2) 1st order and (3) 2nd order.

## • Calibrations

- 	▪ Hourly for 5 more watersheds
- 	▪ Daily for 12 Erie watersheds
- • Surveys
- 	▪ 12 + 5 watersheds for manure, fertilizer, & pesticides
- 	▪ Build GIS layers of DLBRM & RUSLE2 parameters for 5 watersheds
- 	▪ Gather & analyze in-stream water quality data for 8 + 5 watersheds
- • Transport
- 	▪ Estimate annual/seasonal averages & build discharge relations:
- 		sediment in 6 target watersheds, nutrient & microbes in 7, and
- 		in-stream temperature in 7 (including Saginaw)
- 	▪ Add transport to DLBRM & sub-calibrate
- • Resource Sheds
- 	▪ Develop for 11 Erie watersheds
- 	▪ Develop for other materials for 8 watersheds
- • Forecasting
- 	▪ Link 7 watersheds to lake circulation models
- 	▪ Maybe assess climate change scenario nutrient/microbe impacts

**Notes:**
Calibrations
  • Recalibrate DLBRM for SF6 surveys
  • Calibrate hourly DLBRM for 5 remaining target watersheds
  • Reduce daily meteorology for 12 Erie watersheds
  • Calibrate daily DLBRM for 12 Erie watersheds
Surveys
  • Survey 12 watersheds for manure, fertilizer, & pesticides
       ◦ 8 Erie, 2 Michigan, 1 Superior, & 1 Ontario
  • compute loadings
Transport
  • Estimate annual/seasonal averages & build discharge relations:
      ◦ sediment in 6 target watersheds
      ◦ nutrient and microbes in 7 target watersheds
      ◦ in-stream temperature in 7 target watersheds
  • Add first approximation transport to DLBRM & sub-calibrate:
      ◦ sediment erosion and transport
      ◦ nutrients and microbes
      ◦ water temperature
Resource Sheds
  • Link Maumee & Lake Erie resource sheds
  • Develop resource sheds for 11 Erie watersheds
  • Develop resource sheds for other materials for 8 watersheds
Forecasting
  • Link 7 watersheds to lake circulation models
  • Assess climate change scenario nutrient/microbe impacts

## Publications for CY07:  

- C. DeMarchi	25%
- T. S. Hunter	100%
- M. Lansing	40%
- A. Clites	40%
- C. He	25%
- Data Purchase	$2000
- Travel (Scientific)	 1500
- Travel (Administrative)	1000
- Visiting Scientist (25%)	51,909

- Publications for CY07:

**Notes:**
Calibrations
  • Recalibrate DLBRM for SF6 surveys
  • Calibrate hourly DLBRM for 5 remaining target watersheds
  • Reduce daily meteorology for 12 Erie watersheds
  • Calibrate daily DLBRM for 12 Erie watersheds
Surveys
  • Survey 12 watersheds for manure, fertilizer, & pesticides
       ◦ 8 Erie, 2 Michigan, 1 Superior, & 1 Ontario
  • compute loadings
Transport
  • Estimate annual/seasonal averages & build discharge relations:
      ◦ sediment in 6 target watersheds
      ◦ nutrient and microbes in 7 target watersheds
      ◦ in-stream temperature in 7 target watersheds
  • Add first approximation transport to DLBRM & sub-calibrate:
      ◦ sediment erosion and transport
      ◦ nutrients and microbes
      ◦ water temperature
Resource Sheds
  • Link Maumee & Lake Erie resource sheds
  • Develop resource sheds for 11 Erie watersheds
  • Develop resource sheds for other materials for 8 watersheds
Forecasting
  • Link 7 watersheds to lake circulation models
  • Assess climate change scenario nutrient/microbe impacts

## Matching MHG Historical Water Balance 

*Matching MHG Historical Water Balance *

**AHPS Terminal Lakes**

**Notes:**
We compared “base case” lake levels with historical levels (not shown).  We included all diversions but used “natural/pre-project” outflow/channel relationships.  There is fair agreement, but with expected deviations.

## Steady-State Water Levels As a Function of Climate

- Terminal Lake Climates:
- 	Superior, 4.7 T + P > 60;		Michigan-Huron, 4.5 T + P > 63

**AHPS Terminal Lakes**

**Notes:**
We looked at 36 climate scenarios, defined in terms of precipitation drop (%) and temperature rise (oC) above the base case.  We calculated the steady-state average water level resulting from each lake and plotted it with precipitation drop and temperature rise as shown above for Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron-Georgian Bay.

Three regions are identified for each lake’s graph: where levels are all above the sill, where levels are all below the sill, and where they are both above and below (an intermediate region). Of course, the lakes are terminal where all levels are below the sill.