# Presentation: 280176

## Recent NASA-NOAA 

- Tropical Cyclone Collaborations

- CAMEX-3
-  06 Aug – 23 Sept 1998; Patrick AFB, FL;
-  TC development, tracking, intensification, and landfalling impacts;
-  Hurricane structure, dynamics, and motion;
-  Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, & Georges;

- CAMEX-4
-  16 Aug – 24 Sept 2001; Jacksonville NAS, FL;
-  TC develop., tracking, intensification, and landfalling impacts;
-  Study of storms as they approach landfall (Carib., GMex, & U.S. E coast);
-  Chantal, Erin, Humberto;

## Recent NASA-NOAA 

- Tropical Cyclone Collaborations

- TCSP
-  July 2005; San Jose, Costa Rica;
-  TC genesis (early life cycle);
-  collect temp., humidity, precip., and wind information related to TCs
-  Dennis, Emily, pre-Eugene, Gert;

- NAMMA
-  16 Aug – 24 Sept 2006; Sal, Cape Verde;
-  study the formation and evolution of TCs & AEWs in the E and Centr. Atl;
-  study the composition and structure of the Saharan Air Layer;
-  study how aerosols may affect cloud precipitation and TC development;
-  Debby, Pre-Ernesto, pre-Florence, Helene, 3 AEWs

## NAMMA

**NAMMA**

**TCSP**

**TCSP **
**Domain:**
- • Terrain
- • AEWs vs.
-   *In Situ*

**NAMMA**
**Domain:**
- • Dusts
- • AEWs

## NOAA’s Intensity Forecasting Experiment 

**NOAA’s Intensity Forecasting Experiment **
**(IFEX) Program**
- Motivation

## IFEX

- (NOAA NHC, EMC, HRD)

**GOAL 3**
- Improve our understanding of the physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its lifecycle;

**GOAL 2**
- Develop and refine measurement technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment;

**Goal 1**
- Collect observations that span the TC lifecycle in a variety of environments;

## P-3 TC Missions by Lifecycle Stage (1976-2004)

**P-3 TC Missions by Lifecycle Stage (1976-2004)**

- Hurricane
- 68% (n=387)

- Tropical Storm
- 24% (n=140)

## NOAA Operational Priorities

- TC intensity change
- 2) Early lifecycle, including genesis
- 3) NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed Priorities:

- (TPC-1) Guidance for tropical cyclone intensity change, with highest priority on the onset, duration, and magnitude of rapid intensification events. Similar guidance is also needed on when rapid over-water weakening (such as had been observed in recent Gulf of Mexico hurricanes) will occur;
- (TPC-2) Improved observational systems in the storm and its environment that provide data for forecaster analysis and model initialization;
- (TPC-11) Guidance for tropical cyclone genesis that exhibits a high probability of detection and a low false alarm rate, and/or provides probability of genesis;

- (EMC 1) General model improvements to advance track and intensity forecasts;
- (EMC 3) Model validation techniques suitable for three dimensional high resolution verification for all phases of the tropical cyclone life cycle;

## Scientific Needs

-  Multi-scale processes (synoptic, mesoscale, 	convective, microscale)
- 2) Multiple platforms needed to cover storm- and 	synoptic-environments

## Proposed Science

- Develop scientific goals that represent a fusion of TCSP & NAMMA science
- Merging of overlapping goals & available assets to address multi-scale nature of the problem;
- Genesis/early lifecycle studies;

## Some Questions to Address

- 1) What are the precursors for rapid intensification?
- Synoptic scale: vertical shear, SST, OHC, PI, humidity;
- Vortex-scale: size of incipient vortex, humidity;

- 2) What is the impact of variations in the synoptic-scale environment (e.g., dry air, vertical shear, aerosols, wave deformation/accumulation) on developing tropical cyclones?

- 3) What governs interaction between the synoptic environment and incipient vortex (e.g., size of vortex, “marsupial” hypothesis)?

- 4) What is the role of deep convection (e.g., convective bursts, VHTs) in TC genesis and intensity change?

- 5) What are the differences in the precipitation morphology and related microphysical structures at various lifecycle stages?

## Studying TCs in the EPAC vs Atlantic

**EPAC**
-  well defined SST gradients
-  vertical shear tends to be more uniform
-  main development region tends to have higher moisture content
-  TC “factory”...prime region for genesis studies
-  not an ideal location for current NOAA IFEX interests (e.g. U.S. impact)
-  doesn’t fuse some of NAMMA’s main objectives (SAL & aerosol studies)

**Atlantic**
-  land interactions, fronts (e.g. GMex & U.S. east coast)
-  >atmospheric variability over <distance
-  Saharan Air Layer (dry air, dust, enhanced vertical wind shear)
-  GMex: horizontal heterogeneity in mixed layer depths
-  marginal basin (early lifecycle studies more of a challenge)
-  better overlap with NOAA IFEX interests
-  likelihood of better fusion of TCSP & NAMMA objectives
-  deployment “east”: probably ideal for NOAA (Barb, St. Croix, San Juan?)
- 	-reduced chance for conflicts with operational tasking
- 	-better chance for life cycle studies (research initiates missions, 		operations picks up if systems threaten coastline)
- 	-accessible to the central Atlantic and Caribbean region

## NOAA Aircraft Assets

- GPS dropsondes, airborne Doppler radar, microphysics, SFMR, flight-level data;

- 2) G-IV (environment)
- GPS dropsondes, airborne Doppler radar (2009), flight-level data;

- 3) UAV (inner core, environment)
- Flight-level thermo & winds;

## NOAA P-3 Orions

- Barbados

- San Juan

- St. Croix

- 80W

- 90W

- 100W

- 70W

- 60W

- 50W

- 40W

- 30W

- 20W

- 20N

- 30N

- 40N

- 50N

- 10N

*MDR*

## NOAA G-IV

- Barbados

- San Juan

- St. Croix

- 80W

- 90W

- 100W

- 70W

- 60W

- 50W

- 40W

- 30W

- 20W

- 20N

- 30N

- 40N

- 50N

- 10N

*MDR*

## Aerosonde

- Barbados

- San Juan

- St. Croix

- 80W

- 90W

- 100W

- 70W

- 60W

- 50W

- 40W

- 30W

- 20W

- 20N

- 30N

- 40N

- 50N

- 10N

- Key West

*MDR*

## Atlantic/Caribbean Genesis Locations (1944-1999)

## Rapid Intensification in the EPAC vs Atlantic

- HRD RI Index (Atlantic)
-  RI threshold: 30 kt in 24 hr
-  RI cases: 185 out of 2504 overall TC cases (10-yr dataset)

- HRD RI Index (EPAC)
-  RI threshold: 35 kt in 24 hr
-  RI cases: 125 out of 1950 overall TC cases (10-yr dataset)

- Rapid Intensifiers: EPAC (94th perc) vs Atlantic (93rd perc)
-  75% less skill in the Atlantic (relative to RI climatology)

## Spatial Distribution of Intensity Error  (2003-2006; tau=48h)

- GFDI

- SHIFOR

- Official

- DSHP

- Tim Marchok, GFDL

## Spatial Distribution of Intensity Skill (2003-2006; tau=48h)

- GFDI

- Official

- DSHP

- GFDL & SHIPS have trouble in Caribbean & Bahamas region, but still beat SHIFOR

- SHIFOR is tough to beat in the north central Atlantic region

- Note: Deeper blues & purples indicate greater skill; deeper oranges a lack of skill.

- Tim Marchok, GFDL

## NOAA To Dos

-  Check on updated NOAA Aircraft allocation plans for the 	2009-2011 timeframe;
-  Estimate costs (expendables, manpower, etc) for various 	field program scenarios being discussed;
-  Early discussions between HRD and its other IFEX partners 	(NHC & EMC)...summer 2007;
-  More formal follow-up discussions between NASA reps and 	IFEX partners...fall 2007?