# Presentation: 602845

## CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS CENTER

**Norman L. Miller, Principal Investigator**
**Regional Climate Center, Earth Sciences Division**
**Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory**
**University of California**
**NASA/RESAC PI WORKSHOP**
**Washington D.C.**
**November 9, 1999**

## RESEARCH AND APPLICATION TEAM

- Dr. Norman Miller - Hydrometeorologist, LBNL, Regional Climate Center Group Leader
- Dr. Jinwon Kim - Meteorologist, LBNL Staff Scientist, Regional Climate Center (RCC)
- Dr. Phaedon Kyriakidis - Geostatistician, LBNL Postdoctoral Scholar, RCC
- Dr. Nigel Quinn - Water Resources Engineer, LBNL Staff Scientist, and USBR
- Prof. William Dietrich - Geomorphologist, UC-Berkeley, Geology Dept. Chairman, and RCC
- Dr. Mauro Casadei - Geomorphologist, UC-Berkeley, Postdoctoral Scholar, Geology Dept.
- Prof. George Brimhall - Geologist, UC-Berkeley/Space Science Center, 2 Grad. Students
- Prof. James Frew - Computational Geographer, UC-Santa Barbara, Sch. Env. Sci. & Man.
- Mr. Ryan Eldridge - GIS Specialist, San Jose State Univ., and RCC Graduate Fellow
- Senior Advisory Committee:
- Dr. Sally Benson -Geohydrologist, LBNL Earth Sciences Division Director
- Prof. Inez Fung - Atmospheric Scientist, UC-Berkeley, Atmos. Sciences Center Director
- Dean Jeff Dozier - Computational Geographer, UC-Santa Barbara, Sch. Env. Sci. & Man.

## COLLABORATING PARTNERSHIPS

**NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center****	****NOAA National Weather Service-Sacramento**
**NOAA NCEP Climate Prediction Center  ****	****	****SIO Experimental Climate Prediction Center**
**California Department of Water Resources ****	****	****San Joaquin River Management Program**
**California Department of Conservation****	****	****UCB Earth Resources Center**
**California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection****	****UCSB Alexandria Digital Library**
**U.S. Geological Service****	****	****	****	****U.S. Forest Service**
**U.S. Bureau of Reclamation****	****	****	****NOAA International Research Institute ****	**
**Korean Meteorological Administration ****	****	****Changwon National University, South Korea**
**Queensland Department of Natural Resources****	****	****University of Queensland, Australia**
**Chinese Ministry of Water Resources****	****	****Arkwright Insurance Company**

## PROGRESS TO DATE

- Hydroclimate and streamflow modeling
- Satellite data applications - current and future
- Landslide and sediment transport measurements and modeling
- Identification of mine contaminants, water quality monitoring and modeling
- Impact assessment, reports, and workshops
- Annual progress projection, new partnerships and funding
- Metrics and Methodology for measuring project success

## HYDROCLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW MODELING

- Automated daily 3-day forecasts of the western U.S. posted at web site http://esd.lbl.gov/RCSM
- A eight year hindcast (1988 - 1995) simulation was performed and evaluated, manuscript is in internal review.
- Twelve CNRFC-calibrated  river basins have been linked to the RCSM, initial verification has begun.
- A downscaled future climate scenario (HadCM2 transient doubling of carbon dioxide) has been completed. This four year (control, 2xCO2) run indicates that the western U.S. may be warmer and wetter.

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## Western US Domains at 36km and 12km Resolutions

**Western US Domains at 36km and 12km Resolutions**

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## Quantitative Precipitation and Streamflow Forecasts (Hopland, Russian R.)

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## OBSERVED 30-YEAR PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY

## SIMULATED 8-YEAR PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY

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## STOCHASTIC DOWNSCALING

- Establish parametric time series models of environmental variables from observed records at monitoring station locations.
- Distribute model parameters in space, accounting for correlation with satellite products, e.g. digital elevation models or land-cover types.
- Stochastic simulation for generating alternative parameter realizations (maps), which reproduce exactly observed model parameters at station locations, and measures of scale-dependent (cross)correlation with satellite products.
- Output is a set of time series models at any location, used for generating alternative simulated records of environmental variables, e.g. precipitation or temperature.
- The set of alternative realizations is used for propagating uncertainty into impact assessment studies, e.g. stream-flow modeling.

## STOCHASTIC SIMULATION

- Observed precipitation

- Realization #1

- #3

- #2

## REMOTELY SENSED DATA APPLICATIONS

- AVHRR and SAR: Snow Cover Area (SCA) is beginning to be evaluated with model snow depth. Daily SCA maps will be produced in collaboration with the Arizona RESAC and UCSB/ESSW, Snow water equivalent (SWE) will also be generated.
- AVHRR: monthly Leaf Area Index and Green Leaf Fraction is used in Land-Surface model
- Digital Terrain Elevation Data is being used to compute hydrologic model parameters
- High resolution altimetry data is being used for landslide model testing
- Planning to utilize data buyback and data from future missions
- Advanced  Microwave Scanning Radiometer (2000 launch) SWE
- Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (1999 launch) fine-scale topography
- MODIS snow cover area
-  Vegetation  Canopy Lidar (2000 launch) 2 year vegetation mapping
- Apply to the regional scale and statistically downscale

## LANDSLIDE AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT MODELING

- Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) downscaled to the catchment and hillslope scale.
- Spatio-temporal distribution maps of the relative potential for debris flow initiation due to QPF.
- Estimations of the consequent path, potential size, and final depositional area of debris flows applied to the SHALSTAB model.
- Channel particle size distribution mapping begun, initial stochastic model formulated. Statistical-dynamical model will be developed.

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## IDENTIFICATION OF MINE CONTAMINANTS

- Final development of the portable Analytical Spectral Device (ASD) IR and Visible spectrometer’s capability to identify weathered minerals that impact water quality, field testing at the Cerro Gordo abandoned mine site, Inyo Mountains, CA.
- ASD identified jarosite, geothite, and other iron-hydroxides that indicate the release of contaminants by the sulfide oxidation process.
- ASD can distinguish contaminants from the common mineral composing bedrock (calcite, dolomite, limestone, marble, quartz, shale, conglomerates, etc.)
- Lab development of the real-time computer program to automatically reduce the IR spectra for reconnaissance digital mapping of abandoned mine dumps.
- Lab verification of the IR determination of Cerro Gordo mine site minerals.

## WATER QUALITY MODELING AND MONITORING

**REAL-TIME SALINITY FORECASTING IN THE ****SAN JOAQUIN RIVER**
- Development of a decision support system to communicate flow and salinity conditions in the San Joaquin River.
- Formation of an interagency team (LBNL, USBR, DWR, CRWQCB) to continue development of river water quality monitoring network
- Endorsement by over 20 signatories, representing agencies, public and private entities of a Memorandum of Understanding for support of the project
- Publication of weekly forecasts of flow and water quality conditions on website at  http://wwwdpla.water.ca.gov/sid/waterquality/realtime/weekly/index.html
- 	and through a listserver for the San Joaquin River since January 1999 .

## Slide 28

## IMPACT ASSESSEMENT REPORTS AND WORKSHOPS

**The IPCC 2000 Scientific Assessment** - N. Miller and J. Kim (Contributing Authors on regional modeling and impacts)
**U.S. National Assessment 2000** - N. Miller (Contributing Author on Mega-West Report, Coastal Report). Jan. 2000
**U.S. National Assessment 2000 Water Sector** - N. Miller, J. Kim, R. Hartman (Authors to manuscript JAWRA Special Issue on Climate Change and Water Resources). Dec. 1999
**Confronting Climate Change in California:** Ecological Impacts on the Golden State, (C. Field, F. Davis, C. Gaines, P. Matson, J, Melack, and N. Miller), sponsored by the Ecological Society of America and the Union of Concerned Scientists. Nov. 1999
**California Climate, Impacts, and Information Workshop** - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Oct. 4, 1999, Report in preparation. (N. Miller host)

## PROGRESS PROJECTION: YEAR ONE

**Task 1.** Establish western U.S. domain at 36 km resolution, begin western U.S. baseline simulation using NCEP reanalysis as hindcast, and prepare an expanded database.
**Task 2.** Couple CNRFC basins and parameters to the existing land-surface module of the RCSM.
**Task 3.** Begin 2xCO2 climate sensitivity data study using the Hadley Centre’s IPCC scenario.
**Task 4.** Begin landslide and sediment transport model development.
**Task 5.** Begin environmental site inventory of abandoned mines in the Sierra Foothills.
**Task 6.** Advance water quality monitoring system and build Decision Support
**Task 7**. Begin to link RCSM output data to NASA, USBR, DWR, NWS, NCEP, ESSW user interfaces.
**Task 8.** Significant Results Conference:  October 4, 1999

## PROGRESS PROJECTION: YEAR TWO

**Task 1.** Continue with tasks identified in Year 1.
**Task 2.** Complete web-based user information system, expand and improve based on user feedback.
**Task 3.** Evaluate western U.S. baseline simulation using NCEP reanalysis as hindcast.
**Task 4.** Evaluate downscaled 2xCO2 climate sensitivity study, prepare manuscript for IPCC.
**Task 5.** The landslide model will be tested as a hindcast using observed precipitation.
**Task 6.** Abandoned mine site inventory in the Mojave desert will begin.
**Task 7.** Significant Results Conference, expand user and stakeholders group.
**Task 8.** NASA RESAC Progress Report.

## PROGRESS PROJECTION: YEAR THREE

**Task 1.** Continue with tasks from Year 1 and Year 2.
**Task 2.** Significant Results and Stakeholder Workshop, assess effectiveness.
**Task 3.** Reports on advances to users and stakeholders .
**Task 4.** NASA RESAC Report.
**Task 5.** Generate sustainable resources for continuing activities.

## NEW PARTNERSHIPS AND FUNDING

**NASA/ASI Natural Hazards** - CASSANDRA: A storm based model for forecasting the initiation and runout of debris flows. W. Dietrich (UC-Berkeley), A. Howard (UV-Charlottesville), N. Miller (LBNL), J. Kim (LBNL), M. Casadei (UC-Berkeley)
**EPA/STAR** - Vulnerability assessment of San Joaquin Basin water supply, ecological resources, and rural economy due to climate variability and extreme weather events. J. Dracup (UCLA), N. Miller (LBNL), N. Quinn (LBNL), R. Howitt (UC-Davis), L. Grober (Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board)
**CALFED** - Real-Time forecasting of contaminant loading from the Panoche/Silver Creek watershed to the San Joaquin River. N. Miller (LBNL), N. Quinn (LBNL), M. Martin (Westside Resources conservation District), N. Drake (Coordinated Resource Management Program), F. Charles (McGulley, Frick, and Gillman, Inc.), C. Eacock (USBR)

## METRICS AND METHODOLOGY FOR  MEASURING PROJECT SUCCESS

- Successful completion of tasks
- Peer reviewed publications
- Successful simulations and monitoring of short-term and seasonal hydroclimate, streamflow, landslide, sediment transport, aquatic and contaminants.
- Application of satellite data to create value-added RESAC products
- Use of RESAC products by stakeholders and the general user
- New partnerships and funding