# Presentation: 486866

## THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

**THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED**

**Climate **
**Community**

**Research &**
**Development **

**NOAA **
**Climate**
**Forecast**
**Operations**

_**Mission:**_** ****to accelerate the transition of research and development into **
**improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.**

**01 November  2005**

**Notes:**
Key information gaps:

- Influence of land surface properties (e.g., soil moisture, snow, vegetation,  topography)

- Impact of global ocean conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature, sea ice, salinity, currents)

- Variability of climate modes (e.g., MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, interdecadal variations)

- Understanding the warm season climate system and its predictability

## Motivation
CTB Role
Framework
Infrastructure
Transition Projects & Science Priorities
Organization
1st CTB Annual Meeting 
Objectives; Expected Outcome

**CTB Role**
**Framework**
***Infrastructure***
***Transition Projects & Science Priorities***
**Organization**
**1****st**** CTB Annual Meeting **
***Objectives; Expected Outcome***

**THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED**

## MOTIVATION(Scientific)

**NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I applications that shows considerable promise.**
**The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts.  **
**Faster**** development of NOAA climate forecast systems is needed to improve on these forecasts and to provide more useful climate forecast products and applications.**
**Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use by climate researchers is an optimal way to leverage the expertise of NOAA and the external community in order to ****accelerate**** the necessary improvements.***** ***

## Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction

**Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction**
**Niño 3.4 (DJF 97/98 – DJF 03/04)**

## MOTIVATION(Programmatic)

**In order to achieve the blend of internal and external efforts required to improve NOAA operational climate forecast systems, a Climate Test Bed (CTB) facility has been organized. **
**The CTB will**** **
**provide more ****traction and visibility**** to intraseasonal-to-decadal climate research  by accelerating the transition to NOAA climate forecast operations;**
**provide an ****operational testing environment**** to support projects that result in a direct influence on NOAA climate forecast operations;**
**provide ****infrastructure and resources**** for (long term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on broader research issues affecting NOAA climate forecast operations.**

## CTB ROLE

**What does the CTB bring that’s genuinely new? **
**A Focus on Transition**
**A Means of Engagement for the research, operations and applications communities**
**A Mechanism for Distribution of Models & Data.**** **** **

## A FOCUS ON TRANSITION

**In order to accelerate improvements the CTB must define a process to: **
**Identify and communicate the scope of responsibilities for the             Research (R), Operations (O), and Applications (A) communities.  **
**Identify and delineate different types of transition:**
***R2O:***** define where O picks up responsibility, and at what juncture a "hand-off" from R occurs.  **
***O2A:***** define where A picks up responsibility, and at what juncture  a “hand-off” from O occurs.**
**Identify resources for R, O and A to ensure smooth transitions.  **

## Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

**Research and Development**

- N
- C
- E
- P

- O2A
**   ****User Community**

- R2O

- Large “volume” of R&D,
- 	funded through AOs,
- 	Agency Labs...
- Smaller set of R&D
- 	products suitable for
- 	operations.
- 3.	Systematic transition steps
-         R2O.
- 4. 	Systematic transition steps
-         O2A
- Delivery to diverse USER
- 	community

**Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process**

**1**

**2**

**3**

**4**

- NCEP
- is uniquely
- positioned
- to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition  process

**5**

- Operations

## RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS GUIDELINES(Pan et al.)

**The Path to implementation of changes in the NCEP operational climate model suite consists of the following steps:**
***Model development and refinement***
***Preliminary assessment***
***Calibration***
***Interface with operations***
***Final skill assessment***
***Parallel tests***
***Approval***
**Roles of host (research) institution and the operational center must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions.**
**Resources are needed for both the research and operations communities to ensure smooth transitions.**

## OPERATIONS TO APPLICATIONS GUIDELINES

**The path for implementation of operational tools in CPCs consolidated seasonal forecasts consists of the following steps:**
***Retroactive runs for each tool (hindcasts)***
***Assigning weights to each tool; ***
***Systematic error correction***
***Specific output variables (T2m & precip for US; SST & Z500 for global)***
***Available in real-time***
**Need to identify and refine steps for other types of O2A **
***Delivering models and data to the community; NOMADS Server***
***Regional applications of NOAA climate forecasts (energy, agriculture, H2O resources, fire Wx) ***
**Roles of the operational center and the applications community must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions.**
**Resources are needed for both the operations and applications communities to ensure smooth transitions.**

## A MEANS OF ENGAGEMENT

**Collaboration with the climate community is key:**
**Broaden membership on CTB SAB, CST, OB and Transition Project Teams; include private sector and international members**
**Expand collaborative transition projects  (AO’s) **
**Expand CTB System and Science Support Teams, and Visiting Scientist Program**
**Develop meaningful partnerships with various NOAA line offices, other agencies and external stakeholders.***** ***

## CTB LINKS TO                                                 OTHER PROGRAMS

**CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR – GEWEX Programs**
**U.S. (NOAA Climate and Global Change Program - CDEP, CPPA, CLIVAR) **
**International (WCRP VAMOS [*****NAME, MESA, VOCALS*****], AMMA)**
**CLIVAR Climate Process and modeling Teams (CPTs)**
**NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation**
**Provides atmosphere, ocean, land surface data assimilation infrastructure**
**Improved use of satellite data (Climate applications, reanalysis issues, observing system stability)**
**Support Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)**
**GFDL and NCEP codes are becoming ESMF compatible**
**Other Agencies (DOE, NASA, USDA, etc)**

## CTB LINKS TO NOAA OGP

**CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR – GEWEX Programs**
**CPPA**** **
**Climate Process and modeling Teams (NAME –warm season precip forecasts) **
**Drought monitoring and prediction ( LDAS - soil moisture; NIDIS) **
**Hydrologic prediction (H2O Resource Mgmt)**
**CLIVAR Pacific**
**Predictability of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, AO) in CFS/GFS on ISI timescales**
**CLIVAR Atlantic**
**Predictability of Atlantic Marine ITCZ  & related rainfall in CFS/GFS on ISI timescales**
**CDEP ARCS / IRI**
**Seasonal climate forecast products /  tools (drought, agriculture, fire applications)**
**Multi-model ensembles (FY06)**
**Quantification of predictability**

## CTB FRAMEWORK

**Infrastructure**
**Computing Support (*****1/3******rd****** NOAA “Red” Research Computer)***
**System and Science Support Teams (*****models*****, *****data, diagnostics*****) **
**Contractors, Technical Assistants, System Administrators**
**Management and Administrative Staff**
**Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant**
**Transition Projects**
**Base (internally) Funded**
**Short Term – potential for impact on operations in 2 years or less**
**FTE’s reallocated from NCEP and other line offices**
**Announcements of Opportunity**
**Long term – potential for impact on operations in 2 or more years**
**Projects are reviewed, competitive, community wide, broader science issues**
**NOAA or external lead PIs**
**Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc)**

## CURRENT CTB RESOURCES

**NCEP Contributions**** **
**Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA ****Red**** Computer)**
**23 Redirected FTEs**
***Management Team – 0.5 (CPC) & 0.25 (EMC) & 0.25 (CPC)***
***System Support Team (data, software) – 4 (CPC) & 0.5 (EMC)***
***Science Support (Transition Project Teams) – 16 (CPC) & 4 (EMC)***
**NOAA Climate Program Office**** **
**Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure (System Support TA in FY05, FY06); Additional funding for near term and competitive transition projects.**
**CDEP/CTB AO-driven competitive science projects (FY06+)**

## CTB CURRENT AND FUTURE                      TRANSITION PROJECTS

**Current (FY05 and FY06) – “Short Term plans”**
**Assessments of  the Current Version of NCEP CFS/GFS **** **
**Objective Model Consolidation for Generating Official Forecasts**** **
**Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System                                                               ****(****Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer; reproducibility tests)**
**Future (FY07 +) – “Long Term plans”**
**Assessments of the Next (n+1) Version of NCEP CFS/GFS **
**Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System **
**Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System**
**Drought Monitoring and Prediction – Support NIDIS**** **
**Development of  Regional Application Products (e.g. Energy, Agriculture,  Water,  Fire Wx)**
**Advanced Forecast Capabilities (e.g. Ecosystems; Air Chemistry; Carbon Cycle; Fisheries)**

## ASSESSMENTS OF THE NEXT (n+1)           VERSION OF THE CFS/GFS

**Possible Upgrades for the next (n+1) version of CFS/GFS are coming into focus: **
**Land: Couple Noah LSM to CFS**
**Ocean: MOM4**
**Resolution: T126**
**Physics: Convective parameterization; Multi-physics ensemble**
**Comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of future changes to CFS/GFS are needed prior to implementation.  **
**Concerted effort to distribute CFS/GFS data sets to the community.  **
**Caveat: Less emphasis on evaluation of older versions of the CFS/GFS in favor of the newer version(s).   **** **

## DEVELOPMENT OF A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

**NOAA/CTB is a natural lead to develop the strategy for a MM Ensemble Prediction System.  **
**CTB can coordinate "National" models that contribute to accelerated improvements in S/I climate predictions and projections, both in real-time products and with research that contributes to the CCSP and IPCC.  **
***“******National” models are global ocean-atmosphere coupled models:***
**NCEP/CFS**
**GFDL/CM2**
**NASA/GEOS 5**
**NSF/CCSM**
**CTB can coordinate with any of several Multi-Model projects around the world (e.g. European Euro-SIP and the Asian APCC).   **
**The roles and responsibilities of the host institutions and the operational center(s) must be clearly spelled out, commensurate with resources, to ensure smooth transitions.**** **** **** **

## ONGOING ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM

**CTB can promote and coordinate synthesis of ongoing (oceanic, terrestrial and atmospheric) reanalysis activities within NOAA, across agencies and internationally****.**** **
**Benefits:**
**NOAA Can take full advantage of established CTB infrastructure                 (e.g. SAB, OB, teams, computer).**** **
**Can coordinate and provide resources for (long term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on broader issues related to climate reanalysis that contribute to improved understanding of climate variability and change and enhance climate prediction.**** **
**Management:**
**Project Manager for Interagency Coordination and a Program Manager to coordinate reanalysis activities within NOAA, across agencies, and internationally.**

## DROUGHT MONITORING AND PREDICTION 

**Proposal: Designate the GAPP Core Project and its external R&D collaborators as the “Climate Process Team” for Land on the CTB**
**Activities:**
**Couple Noah LSM to T126 version of CFS; Calibrate **
**Multi-Model Ensembles for Hydrologic Forecasts**** **
**Development of a Drought Early Warning System.****	**** **
**Benefits:**
**Coordinate with Operational Drought Monitoring and Prediction **
**Support NIDIS**
**Consistent with NWS Integrated Water Science Plan**

## CTB ORGANIZATION

**Director**
**Higgins (CPC)**

**Deputies**** **
**Pan (EMC) & **
**Gelman (CPC)**

**Program Manager**
**Ji (OGP)**

**Test Bed Users**

**Science / Software **
**Support from**
**Contractors; TA’s, SA’s**

**Oversight Board**
**CPC ****CDC EMC**** ****GFDL IRI NCPO**

**Climate Science Team**
**EMC  CPC  CDC  GFDL  NASA  NCAR**
**OST OCCWS  COLA  IRI**
**EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points)**

-  **Science **
**Advisory **
**Board**

## TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR OB, CST, AND SAB

**Oversight Board (OB):**
**Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA Climate Office and  NCEP concerning the CTB activities.**
**Climate Science Team (CST):**
**Guides CTB activities at the working level; evaluates results of CTB activities; makes recommendations to the CTB management on computing resource usage and access**
**Science Advisory Board (SAB):**
**Works with the broader climate community to provide “independent” expert advice on high-priority scientific challenges; coordinates with other programs                   (e.g., CLIVAR, GEWEX)**** **
**Complete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB Website: ****	****http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb**

## CTB FY05 ACCOMPLISHMENTS 

**Q1 – Annual Operating Plan (4 CTB NTOP’s)**
**Q1 – CFS Assessment Meeting  (WWB/NCEP, November 16, 2004)**
**Established 7 CTB Transition Project Teams:**
** ****	****Model parameterization, **
** ****	****Model sensitivity**
**    ****Assessments **
** ****	****Climate data assimilation (ocean and land)**
**	****Multi-model ensembles**
** ****	****Climate products and applications**
**Q2 – Initiated CTB Infrastructure (System and Science Support Teams)**
**Q2 – Established OB, CST and SAB**
**Q2 – Implemented CTB website **
**Q2 – CTB ToR , “White Paper” and T****ransition to Operations Plan **
**Q3 – CDEP / CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO**

## CTB MILESTONES (FY06)

**CTB Science Priorities and Transition Plan (2****nd**** Draft)**
**Support external CTB users to the extent resources are available**** **
**Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer and begin to test reproducibility of data compared to runs on GFDL computer **
**Complete availability of twice-daily CFS data on publicly accessible server **
**Upgrade the seasonal forecast consolidation tool to improve its use of skill information**** **
**Contribute to Science and Implementation Plan for ongoing analysis of the climate system **

## CTB PROVISIONAL MILESTONES (FY07-FY11)

**Assessment of next version of the NCEP CFS/GFS**
**Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system  (EMC+GFDL)**
**Transition NASA model to CTB**
**Transition CCSM (NCAR) model to CTB**
**Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL+CCSM+NASA)**
**Drought monitoring and seasonal prediction for NIDIS with multi-models via NLDAS**** **

## The CTB “Message”

- The NOAA CTB will:
-  Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader external research and applications communities by providing an operational testing facility that facilitates smooth transitions.
-  Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models,  and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction.
-  Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts,  products and applications.
-  Increase the range and scope of applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making by end users.

## 1st CTB ANNUAL MEETING OBJECTIVES

**Engage the community in a discussion of CTB progress and plans;**
**Discuss & improve the strategy for collaboration with the community;   **
**Gather independent expert advice on future CTB science priorities.**
***	******	******Overall Goal: to help focus the community towards the ******	******	******	******           CTB mission and objectives***** **

## 1st CTB ANNUAL MEETING AGENDA

**Oral Sessions ( 6-30 minute talks each)**
**Climate Model Assessments (CFS/GFS)   *****(Mon AM)***
**Multi Model Ensembles *****(Mon PM)***
**Climate Forecasts and Applications *****(Tue AM)***
**Poster Session *****(Mon AM)***
**Science Advisory Board / Oversight Board Meeting *****(Mon PM)***** ***** ***

## EXPECTED OUTCOME

**Independent expert advice on CTB FY07+ Science Priorities (*****SAB written Summary Report*****)**
**Update CTB “Science Priorities and Transition Plan”          (*****CTB Management*****)**
**CTB Annual Report (*****CTB Management*****)**
**Provide guidance to participating agencies and institutions**