# Presentation: 248690

## In the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Regions of North America and the CaribbeanNational Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Spring Meeting Jacksonville, Florida, 05/01/06Bill Proenza, DirectorNational Weather Service Southern RegionFort Worth, Texas

**“****El Peligro Olvidado”**
** ****The Forgotten Danger**

- In the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Regions of North America and the CaribbeanNational Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Spring Meeting Jacksonville, Florida, 05/01/06**Bill Proenza**, DirectorNational Weather Service Southern RegionFort Worth, Texas

## Overview

- "El Peligro Olvidado" – i.e. “***The Forgotten Danger***”....An appropriate Spanish nickname for a deadly phenomena with a *disarmingly low frequency*. But, ***how do we convince others of the need for tsunami preparedness?***
- Hard lesson from the catastrophic Indian Ocean Tsunami, despite its infrequency, ***there is enormous potential loss of life*** where there has been large coastal population growth and explosive tourism because of warm water attraction.
- What’s your area’s potential loss of life? Obviously ***the riskiest areas are the sea-level beaches where we find large numbers of beach dwellers.***
- In such beaches, it would only take a 3 meter tsunami to yield large loss of life.  We still need to ***add the thousands of vulnerable coastal residents that live in the yet to be determined tsunami inundation zones.***
- Finally, it will take all of us as partners, state and federal, ***to make sure we are never caught unprepared regardless how disarming your tsunami infrequency may be.***

## North American Atlantic Basin (includes Caribbean) Tsunami Fatalities in the last 165 Years

**	****Date  ****	****Place****	****	****	****Fatalities**
- 	1842 	Haiti			~300+
- 	1853  	Venezuela		  600-4000
- 	1867  	Virgin Islands		    23
- 	1882  	Panama			    75-100
- 	1906	Jamaica			  500
- 	1909     Louisiana                            300
-              1918  	Puerto Rico		  140
- 	1929     Newfoundland+, Canada       29
-              1946  	Dominican Republic(1)      1790
- 	1946  	Dominican Republic(2)	    75
**TOTAL** **	****        ****	****	****	****3832 to 7257**
**	****	****	****	****	**

- Statistics from* ****Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year History from 1498-1998**** *by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN 1-4020-1717-0 2003 edition) and Tsunamis of the Eastern US, NGDC, 2002 Science of Tsunami Hazards, vol 20, #3, pg 120

## North American Atlantic Basin Tsunamis

- Since the last major NA Atlantic basin  (Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean) tsunami event (1946, when 1865 lives were lost*) there have been major population shifts to coastal communities and “explosive” tourism. Therefore, risk assessment based on historical deaths will greatly understate today’s potential loss of life from tsunamis. An inescapable lesson from the terrible Indian Ocean event.
- Despite the population at risk having been so much smaller in the past, at least 3532 lives* have been lost in the North American Atlantic Basin (includes the Caribbean) from tsunamis in the last 165 years.

*Volcano locations, Fault lines, and *
*plate boundaries in the Caribbean*

- *Statistics from* ****Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year History from 1498-1998**** *
- by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN 1-4020-1717-0 2003 edition)

## Tsunami deaths since 1842 between two active tsunami basins....Both of much concern to the USA, The North-American Pacific coasts, including Hawaii and, The Caribbean Basin which includes Puerto Rico & US Virgin Islands

**1842-2006: ****579 deaths**

**1842-2006:**
** ****3532+ deaths**

##  Most Tsunami-genic events are from nearby short-fused*sources

** ****Most Tsunami-genic events are from nearby short-fused*sources**

- Earthquakes (many subduction areas/faults exist in the Caribbean, but rare in East & Gulf)
- Landslides (continental shelfs and trenches)
- Submarine and Land Volcanoes (sources that do not affect the East and Gulf)
- Tele-tsunamis (e.g. “Lisbon” Nov. 1, 1755)

##  The tsunami threat to the US Atlantic/Gulf coasts*

- *Ref: Tsunamis... of the Eastern United States by NGDC, 2002. Science of Tsunami Hazards, Volume 20, #3, pg 120: “The threat of tsunamis hitting the eastern U.S. is very real despite a general impression to the contrary.”
- Lisboa Earthquake11/01/1755 with its tele-tsunami of up to 7-10m in the Leewards, to Cuba; possible 3m waves to Florida, Newfoundland etc.
- Cape Ann Earthquake 11/18/1755 with its tele-tsunami felt from Nova Scotia to St. Martin
- Long Island tsunami 6/18/1871, New York Times
- Charleston Earthquake 08/31/1886, Tsunamis Mayport to Jacksonville, Florida Times Union
- Grand Isle to Vermillion Parish tsunami 09/22/1909, 300 deaths, possibly landslide triggered
- Great Banks Earthquake 11/18/1929, 29 deaths in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia and felt to Azores and Portugal Tide gages affected from Charleston to Maine
- Many more events documented along Eastern and Gulf coasts all the way to Brownsville, Texas.

## Today’s risk to beach life from a 3-meter + TeleTsunami

| Beach area  & history glimpse | Est’d Freq. | Beach Water Temp °F | Est’dDaily Beach Attendance | Impactwith only 5% Loss of Life | Prior to this Study: Risk to Life | Prelim Est. of Risk to Life |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CaribbeanRegion (last event 1755) (*3) | 1/250 yrs
(*3)
 | Warm (80+°F)
(*1) | 1000K
(*4)
 | 50K per event or 20K per century | Low | High |
| 3 West CoastStates (last event 1964)   (*2) | 1/100 yrs
(*2) | Cold (65°F)
(*1) | 40K
(*4)
 | 2K per  century | High | High |

**Results Estimate Caribbean Beaches have **_***10 times higher***_** potential for a tele-tsunami loss of life.**

## Today’s risk to beach life from a 3-meter + Tsunami

| Beach area, population and annual tourism | Est’d Freq. | Beach Water Temp °F | Est’dDaily Beach Atten-dance | Impactwith only 5% Loss of Life | Prior to this Study: Risk to Life | PrelimEst. Risk to Loss of Life |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Caribbean Rgn  Nationspopulation 64,500K with 100,000K visits (*4) | 2/100 yrs
(*3)
 | Warm (80+°F)
(*1)
 | 1,000k
(*4)
 | 50K per event or 100K per century | Low | High |
| State of Hawaii population 1,265K with 63,240K visits  (*4) | 3/100 yrs
(*2) | Warm (80°F)
(*1) | 100k
(*4)
 | 5K per event or 15K per century  | High | High |

**Results estimate the Caribbean beaches have a **_***7 times higher***_** potential for local tsunami loss of life per century.**

## Today’s risk to beach life from a 3-meter + Tsunami

| Beach area, state population and annual tourism | Est’d Freq. | Beach Water Temp °F | Est’dDaily Beach Atten-dance  | Impactwith a 5% Loss of Life | Prior to this Study: Risk to Life | PrelimEst. of Risk to Life
 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Florida Population: 17,400K with 85,100K visits(*4) | 1/200 yrs
(*3) | Warm (80+°F)
(*1) | 400K east coast & straits (*4) | 20K per event or 10K per century  | Low | High
  |
| Alaska Population: 650K with 1,725K visits (*4) | 4/100 yrs
(*2) | Frigid (45 °F or less) (*1) | 5K
(*4) | .25K per event or 1K per century | High | High |

**Results estimate that East Coast FL Beaches have **_***10 times higher***_** potential for any tsunami loss of life per century. Rogue waves adds to Florida freq.**

## Other sources of data and footnotes.

***1 – NOAA Sea Surface Temperatures. **
***2 - NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. **
***3 - Landers, Lockridge, Whiteside, O’Loughlin.**
***4 - The populations and tourism numbers were taken from state government or tourism sources within Alaska, Florida, Hawaii. The Caribbean numbers were taken from the internet.**

## A Few Vital Reminders....

**Like the Indian Ocean, the year-round warm ocean temperatures of the Caribbean beaches and the seasonal warm ocean temperatures along the Gulf and Atlantic coastal areas are a strong attraction to residents and tourists. **
**Beaches with flat low-lying topography maximize beach attendance while offering minimal opportunity to climb away from tsunami harm. Such flat topography is more prevalent along the U.S. Atlantic coastal States and the Caribbean in contrast to the U.S. Pacific coastal States including Alaska.**

## A Few Vital Reminders...cont.

**        ****Folks, the Indian Ocean and our Atlantic Basin have more factors in common.  E.g. the NOAA Geophysical Data Center says our Atlantic basin has had 8% of the world’s tsunami events and the Indian Ocean, just 7%.  Yet, a rare tsunami has caused horrible devastation on vulnerable populated coastal areas....315K deaths, 12/26/04. We must be prepared for such low probability events especially when they can threaten so much life !**
**Critical partnerships can greatly mitigate such tsunami loss of life but it requires education. Vital and timely tsunami local warnings using the latest research, realtime observations and communications is for naught without assuring proper response through the education of our neighbors.  True, it’ll take more than us, but its working together that saves lives and we are a key part of that, “together”.    **** **

## Bill Proenza, Director
National Weather Service– Southern Region
Fort Worth, Texas

This presentation is available at  http://www.srh.noaa.gov by clicking the “Message from the Director” and selecting the “Tsunami/NTHMP” presentation.

**Bill Proenza, Director**
- National Weather Service– Southern Region
- Fort Worth, Texas
- This presentation is available at  _[http://www.srh.noaa.gov](http://www.srh.noaa.gov/)__ by clicking the “Message from the Director” and selecting the “Tsunami/NTHMP” presentation._