# Presentation: 009853

## AWC 2008 Review

- Steverino Silberberg
- Bruce Entwistle
- NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center
- Kansas City, MO
- December 9, 2007

## AWC ProductsServe the Nation and the World

## AWC Guidance from EMC/NCO/GSD

- GFS
- NAM-NMM-WRF, NAM-HiRes, NAM-KF, &    NAM-WRF 4 km
- NGM
- RUC
- RUC-ConvProb (test from GSD)
- SREF (Aviation-Jun Du; SPC-David Bright)
- Importance of observations, data assimilation, spin-up, dynamics, microphysics, and physics

## AWC Appreciationfor EMC/GSD Progress in 2008

- GFS
- WAFS icing, turbulence, and cb grids
- post-processing of lowest freezing level height to use 2 m temp instead of sfc temp
- NAM
- extended NAM domain
- post-processing of lowest freezing level height to use 2 m temp instead of sfc temp
- addition of new observations (e.g. TAMDAR), improvements in data assimilation, and model improvements e.g. land surface
- RUC
- addition of microphysics & radar reflectivity to RUC output
- improvements to RUC observation ingest, data assimilation, model improvements e.g. Grell-Devenyi, land surface, convection
- SREF Aviation Diagnostics
- icing, turb, LIFR, IFR, MVFR, VFR

## AWC Wish List: 2009 p. 1

- Post additions
- Add microphysics, radar reflectivity, cloud coverage and height to GFS
- Add simulated echo tops (18.3 dBz) to GFS, NAM, & RUC output
- Add OPC visibility to main GFS output grids
- Add mountain wave diagnostic/gravity waves to GFS, NAM, and RUC
- Add Turbulence Diagnostics to GFS, NAM, and RUC:  every 25 hPa in isobaric output for grids sent to AWC (Ellrod, Ri, TKE is in NAM)

## AWC Wish List: 2009 p. 2

- Model Changes:
- RUC: Extend on-time RUC to F24: add F15, F18, F21, F24
- RUC: Extended RUC/RR domain (in progress)
- Make RUC-Convective Probability Operational
- SPC’s David Bright is calibrating RUC-CP in this effort to assist AWC in forecasts of Cbs during peak air traffic hours  AWC milestone “n+1”
- NAM: Make 4 km Hi-Res NAM Operational
- Data assimilation: Add ascent/descent soundings from ACARS/TAMDAR into RUC (hopefully very soon) & GFS
- Increase convective diversity in SREF
- Include RUC, RUC-CP, and _NGM (Kuo scheme)_ for convection
- Dataflow:
- Need to continue receiving the WAFS global grids of cb-ice-turb used to create "high glance" displays  AWC milestone “n+2”
- Delete hourly NAM output on grid 104  AWC milestone “n+3”
- Add hourly NAM64 grids to F36  AWC milestone “n+3”
- Add GFS Lamp T-storm grib2; convert to GEMPAK

## AWC Wish List: 2009 p. 3

- Concerns about current Model Evaluation Process:
- Need to establish plans for bringing parallel and experimental data into NAWIPS/AWIPS with sufficient lead time to perform evaluations  AWC milestone “n+4”
- Not possible to perform more than one model evaluation at a time given personnel and computing constraints
- Suggestion: Please notify AWC _3_ weeks before parallel dataflow begins because AWC requires:
- AWC Configuration Control Board Approval for DBNet and NAWIPS configuration changes to acquire, configure, compute, and render AWC-specific diagnostics
- Implementation of AWC model evaluation procedure

## Example 1

- Lowest freezing level height improvement in NAM and GFS
- Discovered by Andy Fischer of AWC
- Thanks to Hui-ya Chuang for investigating and changing the post
- Thanks to Eric Rogers for re-runing a key case
- New post uses 2 m T instead of sfc T

## Operational NAM Lowest Freezing Level Height in hundreds of feet (eg 100 = 10,000’)

## Point fcst sndg Frzl @ Texarkana is >13,101’ 

**Point fcst sndg Frzl @ Texarkana is >13,101’ **
**Freezing level height low is <2,000’  **
**Forecast error ~ 11,000’**

## Operational NAM Lowest Freezing Level Height in hundreds of feet (eg 100 = 10,000’)

- Error of 8,000 to 11,000 feet in area

## NAM-PARA Lowest Freezing Level Height in hundreds of feet (eg 100 = 10,000’)

- No error in area.  KTXK freezing level height agrees with point Fcst sounding

## Example 2

- UKMET vs. GFS WAFS Global grids for Cb’s

## UKMET Cb Top Height in thousands of feet (e.g. 23 = 23,000’)

- No error in area.  KTXK freezing level height agrees with point Fcst sounding

## GFS Cb Top Height in thousands of feet (e.g. 45 = 45,000’)

- No error in area.  KTXK freezing level height agrees with point Fcst sounding

## “The Inconvenient Truth”

- No error in area.  KTXK freezing level height agrees with point Fcst sounding

- “The Inconvenient Truth”

- AWC created World IR Mosaic with m58 Enhancement in NAWIPS

## UKMET vs. GFS WAFS Global Grids for Cb’s

- UKMET greatly overforecasts areal extent of tropical convection
- UKMET Cb tops are too low
- GFS does a much better job of forecasting areal extent of tropical convection
- GFS Cb tops more accurate based on IR retrievals of height using Std Atmosphere
- Thanks to George Trojan for GFS WAFS grids

## Summary

- Thank you EMC, NCO, GSD, & NCEP Centers for:
- 2008 Improvements and Collaboration
- Responsiveness to AWC needs
- Best Wishes for a successful and productive 2009