# Presentation: 877159

- August 7, 2007

- A Scientific Foundation for Future               Decision-Making

-  *E. coli* levels and process controls:

- 2005 National Survey, Poultry Operations

- 1600 specimens collected
- 20 randomly selected plants
- Sampled in each of 4 seasons
- 10 rinses, early and late processing
- Generic* E. coli* and *Campylobacter *levels*	**	*
- Prevalence of *Salmonella*

**Notes:**
Methods: 20 randomly selected U.S broiler plants

20 broiler rinses collected at each plant in each of 4 seasons
	10 rinses at rehang (early processing)
	10 rinses at post-chill (late processing)
	These specimens were obtained from the same flock

Each of 1600 specimens tested for 
	E coli levels 
	Campylobacter levels				Prevalence of Salmonella

* **E. coli* levels on raw poultry:

- 2005 National Survey, Poultry Operations

- Demarcation level:
- 1.1 log10 *E coli*/mL*
- Pathogens at higher levels
- Standard deviation
- 0.5 log10  *E coli*/mL

- Distribution of observed data

**Notes:**
Methods: 20 randomly selected U.S broiler plants

20 broiler rinses collected at each plant in each of 4 seasons
	10 rinses at rehang (early processing)
	10 rinses at post-chill (late processing)
	These specimens were obtained from the same flock

Each of 1600 specimens tested for 
	E coli levels 
	Campylobacter levels				Prevalence of Salmonella

- Correlations between *E. coli* and *Campylobacter* level*:

- 2005 National Survey, Poultry Operations

- * Early and late processing

**Notes:**
Methods: 20 randomly selected U.S broiler plants

20 broiler rinses collected at each plant in each of 4 seasons
	10 rinses at rehang (early processing)
	10 rinses at post-chill (late processing)
	These specimens were obtained from the same flock

Each of 1600 specimens tested for 
	E coli levels 
	Campylobacter levels				Prevalence of Salmonella

*E. coli* level and *Salmonella* incidence

- 2005 National Survey, Poultry Operations

- Mean log10 *E coli* levels, raw poultry

**Notes:**
Methods: 20 randomly selected U.S broiler plants

20 broiler rinses collected at each plant in each of 4 seasons
	10 rinses at rehang (early processing)
	10 rinses at post-chill (late processing)
	These specimens were obtained from the same flock

Each of 1600 specimens tested for 
	E coli levels 
	Campylobacter levels				Prevalence of Salmonella

*E. coli* level, pathogens, and raw poultry

- 2005 National Survey, Poultry Operations

- Mean log10* E coli *level

- Pathogen status

- P=0.06, Fisher’s one sided exact test

- * *Salmonella* incidence <25% _and_ mean log10 *Campylobacter* level <0.55 cfu/mL

- † All less favorable results

**Notes:**
Methods: 20 randomly selected U.S broiler plants

20 broiler rinses collected at each plant in each of 4 seasons
	10 rinses at rehang (early processing)
	10 rinses at post-chill (late processing)
	These specimens were obtained from the same flock

Each of 1600 specimens tested for 
	E coli levels 
	Campylobacter levels				Prevalence of Salmonella

- 2005 National Survey, Poultry Operations

- Summary

- Correlation of *E. coli* and *Campylobacter *levels
- High *E. coli* levels in raw poultry related to *Salmonella* incidence
*	**	*
*E. coli* levels fit logistic distribution
- Supports process control based on post-chill *E. coli*

**Notes:**
Methods: 20 randomly selected U.S broiler plants

20 broiler rinses collected at each plant in each of 4 seasons
	10 rinses at rehang (early processing)
	10 rinses at post-chill (late processing)
	These specimens were obtained from the same flock

Each of 1600 specimens tested for 
	E coli levels 
	Campylobacter levels				Prevalence of Salmonella

## Poultry Slaughter Inspection Risk Assessment for Young Poultry 

## Risk Assessment Background

- FSIS conducted a risk assessment to guide new inspection system in young poultry slaughter establishments
- A simulation model associates observed inspector activities with *Salmonella *prevalence on young poultry carcasses
- Uses *Salmonella* culture results from regulatory sampling at post-chill as dependent variable

## Risk Management Questions

- 1. Can FSIS reallocate inspectors in young chicken slaughter plants without significant negative impact on *Salmonella* prevalence in the plants?
- 2. How will the relocation of on-line inspectors to off-line duties, or other areas within or outside the plant, affect human illness?

## Risk Management Questions

- 3. Where within the plant can relocated inspectors have the most impact to reducing microbial prevalence  and corresponding human illness?
- 4. What is the uncertainty about these effects?

## Data Used in Risk Assessment

- 2,395 observations
- Structural Variables – Dates, Inspection Type, Volume
- CY 2003-2005 Variables Aggregated by Month, Quarter, Year
- Type of Inspection (SIS (24.8%) , Maestro (19.8%), NELS (19.5%), Mixed/Unknown (16.5%), HIMP (13.2%), Nu-Tech (6.1%)
- Volume Number of Head Slaughtered

## Data Used in Risk Assessment

- Decision Tracking Variables – On-line/Off-line Inspectors and Scheduled/Unscheduled Procedures
- Procedure Based Inspection System  (PBIS)– Number of Scheduled, and Unscheduled Procedures (Sanitation (01), HACCP (03), Economic/Wholesomeness (04), Sampling (05), Facilities (06), and Biosecurity (08))
- Numbers of Inspectors On-Line and Off-Line
- Performance Deficiency Variables – PBIS Non-Complaint and Not Performed Procedures
- Non-Compliances (procedures 01, 03, 04, 05, and 06),
- Scheduled Procedures not Performed (procedures 01, 03, 04, 05, and 06)

## Model Results

- An increase in number of off-line inspectors is associated with reduced *Salmonella* prevalence.
- A decrease in the number of _unperformed_ sampling, sanitation, and HACCP procedures are all associated with reduced *Salmonella *prevalence

## Model Results

- An increase in the number of _scheduled_ sampling, random facility sanitation, and some wholesomeness  procedures are associated with reduced *Salmonella *prevalence
- An increase in the number of _unscheduled_ sampling, and sanitation procedures are associated with reduced *Salmonella *prevalence

## Next Steps

- New Model Development Questions
- What is the optimal use of FSIS resources and the pubic health impact of re-allocation of inspection resources?
- What is the relationship of re-allocation to process control?
- What are good re-allocation program performance measures?** **
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## Next Steps

- Data Needs-Model Modifications
- Enumeration of *Salmonella* to determine relationship of product contamination to illness (baseline sampling programs)
- Enhanced isolate identification and tracking (*Salmonella *subtyping)
- Process control evaluation in establishments for line speed, on-and off-line reprocessing, contamination at re-hang and post-chill relationship
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