# Presentation: 691541

## OFCM Special Session: Uncertainty in Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion (ATD) Models

**Setting the Stage**
**Mr. Samuel P. Williamson**
**Federal Coordinator for Meteorology**

*In conjunction with the*
*9**th** Annual GMU Conference on Transport and Dispersion Modeling *
**July 19, 2005**

## Acknowledgements

**Special Thanks to:**
** **
**Dr. Zafer Boybeyi**
**George Mason University**
**Members of the Joint Action Group for Selection and Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Models **
**Members of the Joint Action Group for Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Modeling (Research and Development Plan) (JAG/ATD(R&DP))**

## Outline

**OFCM Overview**
**Accomplishments in Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion (ATD)**
**Session Objectives**
**The Way Ahead**

## OFCM Overview -- Mission

**To ensure the **_**effective use**_** of federal  meteorological resources by **_**leading**_** the **_**systematic coordination**_** of operational weather requirements, services, and supporting research, **_**among the federal agencies**_
**High-level focus on:**
**  ****Needs and Requirements**
**  ****Issues and Problems **
**  ****Studies, Reports, Plans, and Handbooks**
**  ****Crosscut Reviews, Assessments, and Analyses**

**Notes:**
OFCM has over 41 years of Federal coordination and cooperation experience, including over 23 years experience with coordinating Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion (ATD) modeling activities among the Federal agencies 

Its mission is to ensure the effective use of federal  meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather requirements, services, and supporting research, among the federal agencies

We are focused on identifying meteorological needs and requirements; issues and problems; studies, reports, plans, and handbooks; cross-cutting reviews, assessments, and analyses of Federal meteorological capabilities

Through its efforts, OFCM fosters opportunities for partnership and collaboration within the Federal meteorological community and its customers

## FEDERAL METEOROLOGICAL COORDINATING INFRASTRUCTURE 

**Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR)**

**Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR)**

_**Federal Coordinator for Meteorology**_

**Standing Committees**

**Program Councils**

**National Space Weather Program**

**National Aviation Weather Program**

**Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs**

**Operational Processing Centers**

**Environmental Information Systems and Communications**

**Integrated Observing Systems**

**Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services**

**Cooperative Research**

**Working Group for Environmental Support to Homeland Security**

**Notes:**
  HERE IS THE FEDERAL METEOROLOGICAL COORDINATING INFRASTRUCTURE--WITH POLICY GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE FEDERAL COMMITTEE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH (FCMSSR)

  THESE COMMITTEES , PROGRAM COUNCILS, WORKING GROUPS, ETC. ARE ORGANIZED TO MATCH THE FEDERAL AGENCIES’ PRIORITIES

  THE RECENTLY CHARTERED WORKING GROUP FOR WEATHER INFORMATION FOR SURFACE TRANSPORTATION IS ALIGNED UNDER THE COMMITTEE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES, OPERATIONS, AND RESEARCH NEEDS AS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW ON THIS SLIDE

NEXT SLIDE

## Coordinating Infrastructure

**OFCM Partners**

**Coordinating Infrastructure**

**Notes:**
OFCM PARTNERS IN INTERAGENCY COORDINATION ARE SHOWN HERE

-  CHANGES OCCURRING WITH THE STAND UP OF THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY

NEXT SLIDE

## Accomplishments 

**In January 2002, OFCM formed the Joint Action Group for the Selection and Evaluation of ATD Models (JAG/SEATD)**
**In August 2002, JAG/SEATD published its report: *****Atmospheric Modeling from Weapons of Mass Destruction: Response by Federal Agencies in Support of Homeland Security.  *****The FCMSSR endorsed this report in October 2002**
**In June 2003, OFCM conducted a special session at the 7****th**** Annual GMU Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (AT&D) Conference as a first step in addressing the JAG/SEATD report’s recommendations**
**In October 2003, formed the Joint Action Group for ATD Modeling (Research and Development Plan) **

## Accomplishments

**In July 2004, OFCM conducted a special session at the 8****th**** Annual GMU AT&D Conference to:**
**Present the results of the JAG/ATD(R&DP) **
**Receive feedback in time for incorporation in the final report**
**Provide an opportunity for DHS/S&T to describe the Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC)**
**In September 2004, OFCM published the JAG/ATD(R&DP) report, *****Federal Research and Development Needs and Priorities for Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion Modeling (FCM-R23-2004). *****The FCMSSR endorsed this report in December 2004**
**In September 2004, OFCM conducted a national, multi-sector conference on urban meteorology, *****Challenges in Urban Meteorology: Forum for Users and Providers***
*** ***

## Session Objectives

**Facilitate a discussion of uncertainties in ATD modeling systems that:**
**Incorporates academic and private sector inputs**
**Accounts for uncertainty in meteorological observations and models and in dispersion models**
**Help Federal agencies striving to improve their ATD modeling systems to implement the recommendations made by the OFCM JAG/ATD(R&DP)**

## The Way Ahead

**Complete the strategy for ATD modeling improvements and present it to the FCMSSR**.  **Key elements of the strategy are:**
**A core set of ATD modeling systems**
**Recovery of existing ATD data**
**Common framework for model evaluation**
**ATD Test Beds**

## The Way Ahead

**Through partnership and collaboration within the Federal meteorological community and its customers, OFCM will:**
**Continue to identify shortfalls in urban meteorology **
**Help to organize improvements across all applicable focus areas that will better support users in the urban environment**

## Backup Slides

## Aviation Weather 
Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services
Cooperative Research
Environmental Services
Environmental Support 
	to Homeland Security

**Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Services**
**Cooperative Research**
**Environmental Services**
**Environmental Support **
**	****to Homeland Security**

**Information Technology and Communications**
**Modeling and Prediction**
**Observing Capabilities**
**Space Weather**
**Weather Information for Surface Transportation**

**OFCM Overview --**** *****Key Focus Areas and Agency Priorities***

**Notes:**
THESE ARE OFCM’S 10 KEY FOCUS AREAS

-  DETERMINED THROUGH COORDINATION WITH ALL FEDERAL AGENCIES INVOLVED IN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH
-  COVERING A VERY WIDE SET OF AGENCY METEOROLOGICAL PRIORITIES  

## Coordinating Infrastructure

- US Climate Change Science Program (USCCSP)

- National Science and Technology Council (NSTC)

- Committee on the Environment and Natural
- 	Resources (CENR)

- Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR)

- Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC)

- National Research Council (NRC)

- Climate Research Committee (CRC)

- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

- University Corp. for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)

- American Meteorological Society (AMS)

**OFCM Affiliations**

**Coordinating Infrastructure**

- George Mason University (GMU)