# Presentation: 321592

## EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

**EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS**
**TSUNAMI WARNING CENTERS**
**CASE STUDY:**
**SOUTH CHINA SEA**
- Malaysia Training, 21-25 August 2006
- PTWC, JMA, IOC

## TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA REGION

## Regional Seismicity

**Regional Seismicity**

## Emile Okal Northwestern Univ

**Emile Okal Northwestern Univ**

## Tide Gauge Amplitudes

**Tide Gauge Amplitudes**
**1960 Chile Tsunami**

***Hong Kong***
***± 0.5m***

## PROVISION OF TSUNAMI WARNING SERVICES TO SOUTH CHINA SEA REGION

**PTWC:****	****EQ Params and Tsunami ETAs**** Incorporate into the Pacific-wide Tsunami Warning System service.**
**JMA:****	****EQ Params, Tsunami ETAs and Tsunami Height Forecast****  Incorporate into the Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center service.**

## Pacific Basin Forecast Points

**Pacific Basin Forecast Points**

## South China Sea, Sulu Sea, Celebes Sea Forecast Points

**South China Sea, Sulu Sea, Celebes Sea Forecast Points**

## Sample Tsunami Travel Times

**Sample Tsunami Travel Times**
**1-hr Contours**

## Simulation example – 1(M=8.5, depth=10km, reverse fault)

- Maximum wave amplitude

- Tsunami travel time

- (in hours)

- epicenter

## Pacific Wave ‘06 source

- Tsunami Travel Time

- Estimated Tsunami Amplitude

- Amplitude (m)

## Elapsed Time

_**Pacific Wave ’06 **_

- 5 M.

- Detection of
- Earthquake

- 10 M.

- Determination of HYP. & M

- EQ.

**NWPTA 001**

- ETA & AMP.

- 15 M.

- 20 M.

- 25 M.

- 30 M.

- 1 H.

- Tsunami Observation
-    *Ishigakijima*
-    *Naha*

**NWPTA 002**

- HYP & M

- Information from PTWC

**Notes:**
For example, let’s consider the case of occurrence of a earthquake near Philippines.
This source was used in the exercise Pacific wave 06
About 20 minute later, JMA issues earthquake information, and starts to monitor tidal data.
About 30 minutes later,  tsunami will arrive at Adak. JMA might receive information from the PTWC.
JMA evaluate the potential of tsunami to Japan and if affection of tsunami will be identified, Jma will issue tsunami warning about 2 hours before expected arrival time.

地震発生後、数分程度で地震波を検地、震源、Mの推定を行う
十数分後にPTWCから情報が送られてくる。
PTWC震源とConsistent with PTWC parameters
震源、Mに基づき、津波の到達時刻、高さ予測する、NWPTA第1号を発表する。
日本の検潮所で津波が観測し始める、観測値を掲載したNWPTA第2号が発表される。
その後は観測される験潮所が増加、あるいはより大きな津波が観測されたなどの情報があれば、続報が発表される。
特に変化が無い限り、続報は発表されない。解除の知らせもない。

## Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory

***    CONTENTS***
*  1  **Earthquake Information*
*  2  **Evaluation of Tsunamigenic Potential*
*  3  **Estimated Amplitude and Arrival Time of Tsunami*
*  **4**  **Tsunami Observation Data*
***        ****** ***

## Example of Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory 

**Earthquake Information**

**Potential of Tsunami**

**Notes:**
This is an example of Northwest Pacific tsunami advisory. When the earthquake of M6.9 occurred on November 14 2005, this bulletin was actually issued. 
NWPTA contains earthquake information, evaluation of tsunamigenic potential and estimated tsunami height and arrival time at forecast points.
In this case, this bulletin shows that estimated tsunami heights don’t exceed 0.5m at any forecast points.
If tsunamis are observed at sea level stations, those observation will be also provided.  

## Example of Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory (continuation)

- Example of Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory (continuation)

**Estimated Tsunami Height**

**Notes:**
This is an example of Northwest Pacific tsunami advisory. When the earthquake of M6.9 occurred on November 14 2005, this bulletin was actually issued. 
NWPTA contains earthquake information, evaluation of tsunamigenic potential and estimated tsunami height and arrival time at forecast points.
In this case, this bulletin shows that estimated tsunami heights don’t exceed 0.5m at any forecast points.
If tsunamis are observed at sea level stations, those observation will be also provided.  

## Example of Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory (continuation)

- Example of Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory (continuation)

**Tsunami Observation**

**Notes:**
This is an example of Northwest Pacific tsunami advisory. When the earthquake of M6.9 occurred on November 14 2005, this bulletin was actually issued. 
NWPTA contains earthquake information, evaluation of tsunamigenic potential and estimated tsunami height and arrival time at forecast points.
In this case, this bulletin shows that estimated tsunami heights don’t exceed 0.5m at any forecast points.
If tsunamis are observed at sea level stations, those observation will be also provided.  

赤字に注意。

## Sample Tsunami Travel Times

**Sample Tsunami Travel Times**
**1-hr Contours**

## Simulation example – 2(M=8.5, depth=10km, reverse fault)

- Maximum wave amplitude

- Tsunami travel time

- (in hours)

- epicenter

## Sample Tsunami Travel Times

**Sample Tsunami Travel Times**
**1-hr Contours**

## Sample Tsunami Travel Times

**Sample Tsunami Travel Times**
**1-hr Contours**

## Slide 21

## Slide 22

## Slide 23

## THANK YOU