# Presentation: 876388

## Strategic Plan for the

**Climate Change Science Program**

- Session morning Dec 5, 2002
- “**Interactions between Data, Observations and Modeling”**
-                                (should be “among”?)
- Chapter 3: Climate quality observations, monitoring and data management
- Chapter 12: Grand Challenges in Modeling, Observations, and Information Systems

**IMPORTANT Reminder:**
- To be effective in improving the Strategic Plan, comments should be submitted electronically according to instructions on the website
- www.climatescience.gov; follow links to Strategic Plan)

## There have already been sessions on Chapters 3 and 12, and even parts of these.

- Accordingly, I am not inclined to duplicate those sessions, but rather to focus here on the interactions and the document as a whole:
- the true “Grand Challenge”.

## THE NEED FOR A SYSTEMS

**THE NEED FOR A SYSTEMS**
**APPROACH TO CLIMATE**
**OBSERVATIONS**
**BY**** K****EVIN ****E****. ****T****RENBERTH, ****T****HOMAS ****R. K****ARL, AND**** T****HOMAS ****W. S****PENCE**
- Because climate is changing, we need to determine how and why. How do we best track and provide useful information of sufficient quality on climate?
*Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:*
- November 2002, **83**, 1593-1602

## Chapter 3 (CCRI)

**	****CLIMATE QUALITY OBSERVATIONS, MONITORING, AND DATA MANAGEMENT **
**This chapter’s contents...**
- How did the global climate vary and change over the past fifty years and beyond, what were the climate forcings over the past 50 years and beyond, and what level of confidence do these data provide in attributing change to natural and human causes?
- 2. What is the current state of the climate, how does it compare with the past, and how can observations be improved to better initialize models for prediction?
- 2a. How can we improve analyses of observations into globally gridded products?
- 2b. How can we ensure that future observations can be compared with past?
- 3. How real are the differences in surface and tropospheric temperature trends? What is the vertical structure of climate change in the atmosphere, and how well do models reproduce it?
- 4. How do we improve observations of biological and ecological systems to understand their response and feedback to climate variability and change?
- 5. How accessible is the climate record?
-     How do we make the climate record more accessible?

## Chapter 3 comments:

- Some nice discussion but not followed up with items in “Research Needs”.
- 1. “go beyond observations to include the processing and support system that leads to reliable and useful products”
- No item on analysis and four dimensional data assimilation
- Does include “Reanalyses”
- Does not deal with variability, forcings, full fields needed for understanding causes, relationships and feedbacks. (**Attribution**)
- 2. Discusses scientific stewardship: monitoring performance of system and taking corrective actions.
- No item on required infrastructure.
- Deals only with baseline networks.
- Does not deal with synthesis, esp. satellite and in situ (for ocean).
- Does not deal with understanding.
- 3. Satellite vs surface:  Separate topic.
- Whole issue of satellite data!

## We do NOT have an adequate 

**Coordination**** among agencies should be a high priority.**
- Building knowledge of just what observations are made (as done for the UNFCCC in preparation for the 2nd adequacy report) is a key first step to better management.
- In addition, real time knowledge of how the observing system is **performing** is essential.
- Along with the wherewithal to **fix** problems promptly.

**We do NOT have an adequate **
**	****	****Climate Observing System!**
**Instead we rely on an eclectic mix of observations taken for other purposes.  But we can not create an observing system just for Climate!   Observations MUST serve multiple purposes.**

## Climate Data Records

**A major effort is required to produce**
**satisfactory climate data records from **
**operational data. **
**Over the past decade a number of ****basic principles**** have been  endorsed by the National Research Council (NRC) in 1999, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and in recommendations for a **
**Global Climate Observing System.**** **

## 1. Management of Network Change:

- 2.  **Parallel Testing**:
- 3**. ****Metadata**:
- 4.  **Data Quality and Continuity**:
- 5.  **Integrated Environmental Assessment**:
- 6.  **Historical Significance**:
- 7.  **Complementary Data**:
- 8.  **Climate Requirements**:
- 9.  **Continuity of Purpose**:
- 10.  **Data and Metadata Access**:

- 1. **Management of Network Change**:  Assess how and the extent to
-      which a proposed change could influence the existing and future climatology.
- 2.  **Parallel Testing**:  Operate the old system simultaneously with the
-      replacement system.
- 3**. ****Metadata**: Fully document each observing system and its operating procedures
- 4.  **Data Quality and Continuity**:  Assess data quality and homogeneity as a
-      part of routine operation procedures.
- 5.  **Integrated Environmental Assessment**:  Anticipate the use of data in the
-      development of environmental assessments.
- 6.  **Historical Significance**:  Maintain operation of observing systems that have
-      provided homogeneous data sets over a period of many decades
-      to a century or more.
- 7.  **Complementary Data**:  Give the highest priority in the design and
-      Implementation of new sites or instrumentation within an observing system to
-      data-poor regions, poorly observed variables, regions sensitive to change,
-      and key measurements with inadequate temporal resolution.
- 8.  **Climate Requirements**:  Give network designers, operators, and instrument
-      engineer’s climate monitoring requirements at the outset of network design.
- 9.  **Continuity of Purpose**:  Maintain a stable, long-term commitment to these
-      observations, and develop a clear transition plan from serving research needs
-      to serving operational purposes.
- 10.  **Data and Metadata Access**:  Develop data management systems that
-       facilitate access, use, and interpretation of data and products by users.

## Furthermore, satellite systems for monitoring climate should adhere to the following specific principles:

-  11. Rigorous **station keeping** should be maintained to minimize orbital drift.
-  12. **Overlapping observations** ensured to determine inter-satellite biases.
-  13. **Satellites replaced** within their projected operational lifetime (rather than on failure) to ensure continuity (or maintain in-orbit replacements).
-  14. Rigorous **pre-launch instrument calibration** should be ensured.
-  15. **On-board calibration** and means to monitor instrument characteristics in space should be ensured.
-  16. **Product ****development** and operational production.
-  17. **Data access:** to climate products, metadata and raw data, including key data for delayed-mode analysis, should be established and maintained.
-  18. Continuing use of still-functioning baseline instruments on otherwise de-commissioned satellites should be considered.
-  19. **Ground truth:** The need for complementary in-situ baseline observations for satellite measurements should be appropriately recognized.
-  20. **Monitoring systems:**** **of network performance to identify both random errors and time-dependent biases in satellite observations.

## CHAPTER 12

**GRAND CHALLENGES IN MODELING, OBSERVATIONS, AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS **
**This chapter’s contents...**
- 1. Observations
- 2. Modeling capabilities
- 3. Data and Information Management
- ________________________________________

**Comments:**
- 1:  Where is the topic
- “Analysis of observations (into gridded global products)”?
- 2:  Where are the observations made into an “observing system”?
- 3: Where are the linkages between observations and modeling?
- 4: Where is the “Grand Challenge”?

## Observing system means a comprehensive approach, including

**  ****and which are utilized in data assimilation and in making ensemble **
**  ****predictions. **

**Observing **_**system**_** ****means a comprehensive approach, including**
**Climate observations**** from both space-based and in situ platforms taken in ways that address climate needs and adhere to the ten principles outlined by the NRC (1999). **

** ****A ****global telecommunications network**** and satellite data telemetry**
**   ****capacity to enable data and products to be disseminated. **

** ****A climate observations ****analysis**** capability that produces global **
**  ****and regional analyses of products for the atmosphere, **
**  ****oceans, land surface and hydrology, and the cryosphere.**
** ****Four dimensional data assimilation**** capabilities that process the **
**  ****multivariate data in a physically consistent framework to enable **
**  ****production of the analyses: for the atmosphere **_**and**_** oceans, land surface etc.**

**A climate observations ****oversight and monitoring center**** that tracks the performance of observations, the gathering of the data, and the processing system.    This center must have ****resources ****and influence to fix problems and be a prominent climate voice when observational systems are established, such as for weather purposes or in establishing requirements for instruments on satellites.**

## Chapter 12 nicely pulls together all the items from previous chapters on 

**Observations, and **
**Modeling.**
- Atmospheric composition (Ch. 5)
- Climate variability and change (Ch. 6)
- Water Cycle (Ch. 7)
- Land Use and Land Cover (Ch. 8)
- Carbon Cycle (Ch. 9)
- Ecosystems (Ch. 10)

## The plan notes that some new sensors and networks need to be developed and implemented with continuity in mind.

**The road forward:**
**Stabilize existing observational capabilities**
**Identify and implement critical measurement improvements.**
**Incorporate climate and global change observing requirements in operational programs at the appropriate level.**
**Continue intensive field missions**
**Continue a vigorous program in data reanalysis to ensure the time consistency and spatial homogeneity of global change data sets.**

## Some Questions:

_**Some Questions:**_
**Where are the linkages among these components? **
** **
** ****water cycle and ocean**
** ****carbon and water, **
** ****aerosols and water vapor/cloud, **
** ****carbon, ecosystems and land cover, **
** ****climate variability and change, and land**
**Where is blend of in situ and space-based obs **
**(esp. water cycle)? **
**Where are they all coupled to deal with the energy cycle?**

## Where is the ocean? (Freshwater transports in ocean and atmosphere, ocean density, precipitation, evaporation)

**No complete hydrological cycle here or elsewhere!**
- Issues of things like frequency and intensity of precipitation     extremes.

**Water Cycle**
**Hydrological Cycle:**
- Units:
- Storage: Thousand cubic km
- Exchanges:
- Thousand cubic km/yr

## Observing System Prioritization Criteria

- The following prioritization criteria should be considered in selecting CCSP observing program
- initiatives:
- **Scientific Return: **significance of the expected increase in fundamental knowledge.
- **Benefit to Society: **extent to which the outcome may be utilized for great societal
- benefit.
- **Mandated Programs: **support of programs mandated by law.
- **Partnership Opportunities: **the extent to which needed work can be carried out
- with partners in the United States and abroad.
- **Technology Readiness: **the extent to which current technology enables a question
- to be productively addressed.
- **Program Balance: **distribution of resources to ensure scientific progress is not
- impeded by the lack of key information.
- First is about scientific justification and rationale?
- Also:
- Scientific readiness (in addition to technical feasibility and cost)

## Modeling Priorities and Linkages in CCSP Program Elements

- Nice preamble:
- Models as essential tools for synthesizing observations, theory, experimental results.
- Retrospective: compare to observations
- Prognostic: future projections
- Only quantitative tool
- Expand to become Earth System models
- Need for computational capabilities
- Quasi-operational activity
- Research activity

## Links to Climate Modeling and Prediction

**The monitoring program must be combined with:**
**analysis and generation of products****, including assimilation of the data into an operational climate model.   Provides**
** ****Quality Control, **
** ****Feedback to the monitoring program, **
** ****Optimization of design of observing system; and **
** ****Expert information on the data for the climate services. **
**So ****where, under modeling, is role of models in 4DDA and analysis?**
** ****atmosphere; **
** ****ocean;  **
** ****land surface; **
** ****coupled**

- “All models are wrong, some are useful!”
- Need for **assessment **of models along with all products:
- Chapter 4?

## Initializing Operational Climate Prediction

**The analyzed observations are vital to establish the ****initial state**** ****of the climate system monthly. **
**The Earth is not in radiative balance and some predictability arises from changes in radiative forcing that has already happened.**This is not dealt with anywhere (e.g., Chapters 4, 6). Issues of **climate drift **and spin up (esp. of oceans) to be solved.
- Similarly, where is **predictability** dealt with?
- Major issue for regional climate (can you ever expect to predict regional climate without predicting ENSO?)

**For climate predictions****, the initial state of the atmosphere is less critical. **
**Needed for predictions of a season to a year or so: ****upper ocean heat **
**content****; ****soil moisture****, state of ****surface vegetation;**** the mass, extent, thickness and state of ****sea ice and snow cover****.  **
**On longer time scales****, information throughout the ****ocean**** is essential.  **
**Information on systematic changes to the atmosphere (especially its composition and influences from volcanic eruptions) as well as external ****forcings****, such as from changes in the sun, is also needed.**

## Data and Information Management

- Good discussion of:
- Access, harnessing advanced technologies
- Metadata, Q/C
- Ocean observing system
- Challenges discussed:
- Integration
- Archival
- Distributed system
- Interoperability
- Data rescue
- User friendly

## Stewardship of the data is needed: establish an organization with responsibilities for operational climate monitoring and prediction. 

**Needed: a central facility with oversight of the ****health of the observing system**** and resources to build and sustain a climate observing system operating under the guideline principles. **
**It would have a new management structure, authority and infrastructure and should be responsible for a line of products for use in all aspects of climate, and oversight of management, access and archival of the data.**

**Stewardship ****of the data is needed: establish an organization ****with responsibilities for operational climate monitoring and prediction. **

## So what are the grand challenges?

## Integrating themes:

- Climate change arises from changes in the energy budget.
**MISSING: theme on the energy cycle?**
**	****	****	****	****	****	****Kiehl and Trenberth 1997**

- IPCC has used radiative forcing at TOA –works for global T for global forcings.  Assumes linearity.   BUT some effects are not linear.
- AND this greatly oversimplifies the system:
- (e.g., solar – which affects shortwave, vs CO**2** – which affects longwave; and so diurnal cycle, land-sea differences matter.)
- ALSO clouds and absorbing aerosols have great impact but may have no TOA radiative forcing.

## Energy cycle:

- NEED to come to grips with “bottom of atmosphere radiative forcing” (I.e. the **surface heat budget**)
- INVOLVES oceans through uptake of heat (heat storage)
- INCLUDES all feedbacks
- CRITICAL for hydrological cycle AND local vs global effects.
- This integrating theme places all feedbacks into a coherent framework.
- New way to analyze and look at models and data

## We need a comprehensive information system to:

**The climate is changing: It is likely to continue to change!**
- Regardless of the success of mitigation actions:
**We need a comprehensive information system to:**

**Observe and track the climate changes and forcings as they occur.**
**Analyze global products (with models)**
**Understand the changes and their origins**
**Validate and improve models**
**Initialize models; predict future developments**
**Assess impacts regionally: on environment, human activities and sectors such as  ****agriculture, energy, fisheries, water resources, etc.**
**Such a system will be invaluable regardless of magnitude of global warming**

## Grand Challenges:

- Integrate the science under a banner e.g., focused on energy.
- Establish an end-to-end information system involving Observations, Analysis, Modeling, Prediction, and Assessment.   To make music out of the din of observations that currently fall on the floor an interagency “conductor for the orchestra” is needed.
- 3.  Make the case and establish adequate funding to do this:

- Ramping up to **$1B per year **after 10 years:
- $100M each – in situ atmosphere, oceans, land (carbon, hydrology, land use, paleo), data stewardship, computing, modeling and analysis,
- $200M satellite obs for climate
- $200M operation of satellites (hot spare in orbit, orbit control)