# Presentation: 758500

## 2006 Net Merit Revision

## Stillbirth Evaluations

**Percent stillbirths in first-calf heifers (%SBH), similar to calving ease (%DBH)**
**Sire SB:**** 12.0% +- 1.5%**
**Daughter SB:**** 12.0% +- 2.5%**
**Report median and mode or mean?**
**Range 8 – 17% sire, 6 – 27% daughter**
**Fewer stillbirths (avg 5%) in later parities**
**Number of records half of calving ease**
**Display 4 traits or only an index?**

## Stillbirth Data

|  | Alive | Dead | Died | Usable |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Parity | 1 | 2 | 3 | Records |
| 1 | 88.0% | 11.3% | .7% | 1,505,826 |
| 2+ | 95.0% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 4,202,200 |
| Usable Records | 5,384,029 | 348,677 | 29,320 | 5,762,026 |

**Stillbirth Score**

## Stillbirth Genetic Trend

**DSB = Daughter (cow’s) contribution to stillbirth rate.**
**SSB = Service sire’s contribution to stillbirth rate.**

## Calving Ability Indexes

|  | Calve Ease |  | Stillbirth |  | Mod-el | Total Merit |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Sire | Dtr | Sire | Dtr |  |  |
| DEU | 19 | 26 | 26 | 29 | AM | 7% |
| NLD | 33 | 17 | 33 | 17 | SM | 4% |
| CHE | 12 | 12 | 38 | 38 | AM | 0% |
| NOR | 0 | 34 | 33 | 33 | SM | 3% |
|  | proposed |  |  |  |  |  |
| USA | 25 | 15 | 15 | 45 | SM | 6% |

## Economic Assumptions

**Newborn calf value**
**$450**** for females**
**$150**** for males**
**Expenses per difficult birth (4 or 5)**
**$75**** labor and veterinary**
**$100**** reduced milk yield**
**$75**** reduced fertility and longevity**
**1.5% chance of cow death (****$1800****) **

## Stillbirth Correlations from InterbullGenetic correlations with USA

|  | Sire | Daughter |
| --- | --- | --- |
| CHE | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| DNK | 0.66 | 0.82 |
| FIN | 0.64 | 0.88 |
| NLD | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| SWE | 0.61 | 0.88 |

**Correlations estimated using inflated daughter counts. **
**Participation in MACE will wait until November.**

## Milk, Fat, and Protein PricesFederal Order Class III (Cheese)

| Year | Milk | Fat | Protein | Volume | SCS |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2000 | 9.74 | 1.25 | 1.69 | .0030 | .14 |
| 2001 | 13.10 | 1.85 | 1.96 | .0075 | .17 |
| 2002 | 10.42 | 1.19 | 1.97 | .0035 | .14 |
| 2003 | 11.42 | 1.21 | 2.38 | .0005 | .16 |
| 2004 | 15.39 | 2.05 | 2.60 | .0042 | .20 |
| 2005 | 14.05 | 1.71 | 2.46 | .0035 | .18 |

## Proposed and Current PricesNet Merit, Cheese Merit, and Fluid Merit

| Year | Milk | Fat | Prot | Volume | SCS |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2006 NM | 12.70 | 1.50 | 1.95 | 1.75 | .18 |
| 2006 CM | 12.70 | 1.50 | 2.80 | -.95 | .18 |
| 2006 FM | 12.70 | 1.50 | .57 | 5.74 | .18 |
| 2003 NM | 12.70 | 1.30 | 2.30 | 1.25 | .18 |
| 2003 CM | 12.70 | 1.30 | 3.00 | -.85 | .18 |
| 2003 FM | 12.70 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 5.15 | .18 |

##  Proposed Net MeritRelative economic weights

| Trait | 2006 | 2003 | Trait | 2006 | 2003 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Protein | 23 | 33 | SCS | -9 | -9 |
| Fat | 23 | 22 | Udder | 6 | 7 |
| Milk | 0 | 0 | Feet/Leg | 3 | 4 |
| PL | 17 | 11 | Size | -4 | -3 |
| DPR | 9 | 7 | Calving Ability | 6 | 4 |

## Correlations with Longevity (New PL genetic correlations and difference from previous PL)

| Ctry | DPR1 | PL | PL dif | Ctry | DPR | PL | PL dif |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| IRL | .66 | .78 | .07 | ITA | .44 | .73 | .00 |
| SWE | .64 | .76 | -.05 | DNK | .42 | .86 | .03 |
| GBR | .58 | .86 | .03 | NLD | .38 | .83 | .03 |
| CAN | .54 | .92 | .03 | CHE | .35 | .75 | .03 |
| BEL | .52 | .83 | .01 | AUS | .34 | .69 | .02 |
| NZL | .51 | .69 | .03 | FIN | .28 | .70 | .06 |
| DEU | .46 | .85 | .00 | FRA | .27 | .70 | .03 |
| ESP | .46 | .77 | .05 | ISR | .22 | .48 | .09 |

**1**** Correlation of US daughter pregnancy rate PTA with foreign longevity PTA**
**  ****(>10 herds in both countries)**

## Culling Emphasis

|  | Relative emphasis % on first-parity trait |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Year | Milk Yield | Fat Yield | Prot. Yield | SCS | DO | CE | FS |
| 1988 | 100 | 82 | 99 | -19 | -18 | - 8 | 26 |
| 1992 | 100 | 76 | 101 | -25 | -23 | - 9 | 24 |
| 1996 | 100 | 74 | 100 | -26 | -30 | - 9 | 23 |
| 2000 | 100 | 78 | 95 | -33 | -74 | -15 | 33 |

## February 2006 Change

**Foreign bull PTA DPR**
**Predict fertility from other traits**
**Methods very similar to multi−trait PL**
**Foreign correlations assumed = domestic**
**MACE longevity, yield get highest weight**
**Results for top 100 NM$ foreign bulls**
**PTA mean was −.3, now −.7**
**REL mean was 28%, now 40%**
**REL would increase 7% for domestic bulls**

## Changes for May

**ERCR computed at AIPL**
**Milking speed for Brown Swiss**
**Rear legs / rear view (BS, GU)**
**Brown Swiss calving ease MACE**
**POSTPONED or CANCELLED**

## Changes expected for August

**Stillbirth evaluation**
**Include in calving ability index**
**New definition of productive life**
**Credit for longer lactations**
**Lower correlation with fertility**
**Standard deviation 1.43 times larger**
**Update NM$ economic values**

## Changes expected Nov or Feb

**Multi-breed / crossbred evaluation**