# Presentation: 526208

## Captain Frank W. Garcia Jr.

**Captain Frank W. Garcia Jr.**
**Acting Director Information Systems**
**Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Science & Technology)**

**Screening Categories for CBRNE Models**
**OFCM Workshop**
**Dec 5, 2001**

**Notes:**
I was asked to give a talk on how Washington works and what I really do?
Both great imponderables

## Overview

**Background**
**CBRNE Model selection criteria**
**Keeping it simple**

## Background

**Desert Shield/Storm**
**Multiple models, missions and databases**
**Kamisaya- Chemical Weapons**
**OSD Memo - HPAC, VLSTRACK, D2PC**
**Organization Changes – CB VV&A Authority:**
- DEPSECDEF
- Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology & Logistics
- (Assistant to SECDEF for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Programs)
_*Deputy Assistant to the SECDEF for Chem/Bio Defense*_
- CB Modeling & Simulation Advisory Council (MSAC)
- CB MSAC Working Group
- Technically oriented integrated product teams (IPTs)

## NBC Hazard Model Components

- Source

- Terrain

- Meteorology

- Transport & Dispersion of
- Matter & Energy

**Human**
** ****Response**

**Decay, Deposition Processes**

**Notes:**
     This slide shows a “Conceptual Model” of how we represent a Chemical/Biological event.  There is a Source module or term which we use to describe the particular event in terms of quantity of material, its physical state (liquid, vapor, solid or gas) and its particular chemical or biological constituents.  Next, the material is transported or advected by winds, affected by other meteorological parameters causing it to decay and/or be deposited along the way until it reaches a target population of interest (which can vary widely in susceptibility) and causes a human response.  
     Having a “Conceptual Model” is necessary because this is what we represent (to some level of accuracy and fidelity) with our numerical models. 

## Selection Criteria

**Mission Driven**
- Organize, Train and Equip
- Strike, Defensive and storage
**Convergent acquisition**
**Transportability**
**Interoperability**
**Interwoven w/**
**Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, and Facilities**** **

## Mission Considerations

**Strike/Counter Proliferation - minimize collateral damage**
- Strike WMD facilities
**Defensive/Force Protection - consequence management and recovery**
- Theater Missile Defense intercepts
- Military Operations in Urban Terrain
- Flow through complex structure
- Facility modeling
**Facility Readiness**
- Chemical Storage
- Nuclear stockpile
- Nuclear Reactors

## Representative CBW Model Utility

- Defensive Hardware Design, Development, and Acquisition

**CONOPS development**

**Notes:**
   As an example of the range of uses Chemical/Biological models are applied to, consider the above matrix.  Not only do Chemical/Biological models serve a profound role in Hazard Warnings for battlefield personnel, they are also utilized in forensic analyses of events, the development of Concepts of Operation for Chemical/Biological events, and in the design, development and acquisition of defensive hardware to articulate just a few of their many uses.  Obviously, models must undergo a verification, validation and accreditation appropriate not only to the particular numerical structure of the model (e.g., Gaussian puff, particle tracer, Eulerian or Lagrangian coordinates, etc.) but ALSO one that is appropriate to the general CLASS of operations the models is designed to address.  

## Current Models

**Notes:**
   As an example of the range of uses Chemical/Biological models are applied to, consider the above matrix.  Not only do Chemical/Biological models serve a profound role in Hazard Warnings for battlefield personnel, they are also utilized in forensic analyses of events, the development of Concepts of Operation for Chemical/Biological events, and in the design, development and acquisition of defensive hardware to articulate just a few of their many uses.  Obviously, models must undergo a verification, validation and accreditation appropriate not only to the particular numerical structure of the model (e.g., Gaussian puff, particle tracer, Eulerian or Lagrangian coordinates, etc.) but ALSO one that is appropriate to the general CLASS of operations the models is designed to address.  

## Backup

## JEM - Developmental Strategy

**Block 1 ****(as outlined by OSD) IOC 2005:**** **
- Provide common use hazard prediction model
- Integrate capabilities of current DoD Counterforce, Passive Defense, and Hazard/Incident models within a common architecture
- Technologies in support of this block are at Technology Readiness Level of  7
**Block**** 2 will develop and integrate:**
- Urban effects model (e.g., UDM, MIDAS-AT, ?)
- High altitude missile intercept  (e.g., PEGEM)
- Technologies in support of this block are currently at Technology Readiness Level of  5-6
**Block 3 will develop and integrate: **
- Flow through complex structures
- Flow through building interiors
- Technologies in support of this block are currently at Technology Readiness Level of  3

## JEM - Mission

- Deliver _the_ Common Use DoD NBC Hazard Prediction Model
**Enhance situational awareness of the battlespace**
**Including Civil Support for Homeland Security IF Lead Federal Agency so indicates.  Otherwise DoD will follow Lead Federal Agency designations.**
**Provide real-time hazard information to influence current operations**
**Maintain Ground, Air and Maritime Operational Tempo**
**Support JV2010  -  JV2020**
**Information Superiority **
**Dominant Maneuver**
**Rapid Decisive Operations**
**Assured Access**
**Full Dimension Protection**