# Presentation: 028983

## A Program for Research and Systems Integration to Help Mitigate the Volcanic Ash Hazard to Aviation

**A Program for Research and Systems Integration to Help Mitigate the Volcanic Ash Hazard to Aviation**

**Tenny Lindholm,**

**David Johnson & Cathy Kessinger**

## Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)Aviation Weather Research Program

**Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)****Aviation Weather Research Program**

- ►**Oceanic Weather Product Development Team**
**   ****(OWPDT)**

- Core Scientific Membership:  NCAR,  NOAA/AWC,NRL-Monterey,  &  MIT/Lincoln Labs

- ►**Advanced Satellite Aviation-Weather **

**National Aeronautics and**** **** **

**Space Administration**

**Products Program    (ASAP)**

- Key Participants:  NCAR and OWPDT members, University of Wisconsin/CIMSS, NASA/Langley

- Heavy deposits of resolidified ash on nozzle guide, Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

## Need better integration of the agencies responsible for generating information on volcanic eruptions and ash clouds, with a collaborative approach that (a) provides all stakeholders the most current information and (b) permits all stakeholders to participate in updating information. 
Need a common database of text and graphic products that all users can access to facilitate collaborative decision-making. 
Stakeholders include airlines, air traffic management and control, weather providers & geological surveys.

- Need better integration of the agencies responsible for generating information on volcanic eruptions and ash clouds, with a collaborative approach that (a) provides all stakeholders the most current information and (b) permits all stakeholders to participate in updating information.
- Need a common database of text and graphic products that all users can access to facilitate collaborative decision-making.
- Stakeholders include airlines, air traffic management and control, weather providers & geological surveys.

**FAA Volcanic Ash:**
**User Needs Analysis Summary**

***Global cooperation, collaborative decision-making!***

## Volcanic Ash User Needs:Specifics

**Volcanic Ash User Needs:****Specifics**

- Improved detection of volcanic eruptions globally, to include characterization of the initial ash cloud.
- Better characterization of the ash cloud as the event progresses:
- Location, horizontal  & vertical extent of hazard
- Ash density and chemistry (hazard assessment)
- Differentiate volcanic ash from meteorological cloud
- More frequent product updates.

## Volcanic Ash User Needs:Specifics  (continued)

**Volcanic Ash User Needs:****Specifics  (continued)**

- Improved timeliness of updates (from observation or product generation to user access).
- Better forecasts:
- Location, horizontal  & vertical extent of hazard
- Changes to ash density and chemistry
- Longer valid time
- Improved dissemination for flight planning
- Training.
- Ready access to all information for all users (AOC’s, flight crews, and ATC specialists)
- Higher resolution graphical products, including vertical cross-sections.

## Volcanic Ash User Needs:Research

**Volcanic Ash User Needs:****Research**

- Global detection of eruptions and volcanic ash plumes.
- Global high resolution wind fields.
- Improved plume dispersion models.
- Methods to characterize ash plume density and chemistry.
- Aviation hazard definition based on plume density and chemistry.

***Maximize benefit from current satellite systems & ***
***define needed technologies for the future!***

## Volcanic Ash User Needs:Collateral Objectives

**Volcanic Ash User Needs:****Collateral Objectives**

- Common database.
- Display concepts and graphics.
- Networked collaborative workstations.
- Internet dissemination and data link to aircraft.

**Reventador,  Equador**

## Reventador, November 2002

**Reventador, November 2002**

## Oceanic Weather PDT

**Oceanic Weather PDT**

- Hazardous Convection
- Turbulence
- In-flight Icing
- Flight-level winds
- SIGMETS
**Volcanic Ash**

## Cloud Top Height

**Cloud Top Height**

## Graphical

**Graphical**
**Cockpit**
**Display**

## OWPDT Activities & Progress

**OWPDT Activities & Progress**

- Collaborative product generation and dissemination
- Networked and interactive display capabilitiesNOAA-FSL Volcanic Ash Collaborative Tool (VACT)
- Automated SIGMET decoder and web-based global display system
- Improved, global, high-resolution wind field that is compatible with dispersion models, such as HYSPLIT and VAFTAD
- Monitor DoD funded dispersion model research at NCAR

**1**

## SIGMET Decoder

**SIGMET Decoder**

## Slide 17

## OWPDT Activities & Progress

**OWPDT Activities & Progress**

- Collaboration with the USGS on volcanic eruptions   (in progress)
- Global volcano database—eruption history, characterization, location, plume type
- Extensive seismic sensing network
- Expertise on identifying high risk areas based on geoseismic data
- NCEP collaboration on detection and plume cloud detection and display

**2**

## OWPDT Activities & Progress

**OWPDT Activities & Progress**

- New partnership established with NASA through ASAP Program.
- Research channel differencing techniques available with current satellite sensing capabilities (GOES & AVHRR)
- Explore other existing technologies such as TOMS
- Research and test new sensing technologies for future satellites (e.g., GIFTS and MODIS)

**3**

## Popocatepetl, Mexico

- 14 February 2003
- 1045-1815 UTC
- Algorithm output at 30 min intervals
- Ash cloud is extrapolated
- Purple = current position
- Orange =      60 minute extrapolated position

## Washington VAAC Warning

- Algorithm results compare well with VAAC verification data
- Highest values within “thick ash around FL250”

**1315 UTC**

**1302 UTC**

**+**

**Popocatepetl, Mexico**
**14 February 2003**

## Reventador, Ecuador

- 4 November 2002
- 0046-1545 UTC
- Algorithm output at 30 min intervals
- Ash cloud is extrapolated
- Purple = current position
- Orange =      60 minute extrapolated position

- Washington VAAC Warning

**3 November**
**2315 UTC**

**Reventador, Ecuador**
**3-4 November 2002**

- +

**4 November**
**0046 UTC**

- Washington VAAC Warning

**Reventador, Ecuador**
**4 November 2002**

- +

**0515 UTC**

**0515 UTC**

## Reventador Ash CloudTotal Ozone Mapping Spectrometer 

- Reventador Ash CloudTotal Ozone Mapping Spectrometer

## Reventador SO2

**Reventador SO2**

## OWPDT Activities & Progress

**OWPDT Activities & Progress**

- Naval Research Laboratory – Monterey
- Image enhancing techniques for dust clouds and aerosols
- Investigation of automated feature detectors for global monitoring, detection & reporting

**4**

## Ongoing Mt. Etna Eruption: 10/30/02

**SeaWIFS True Color                          NRL Dust Enhancement**

## OWPDT:Possible Operational Products

**OWPDT:****Possible Operational Products**

- Graphical Eruption Flag      ● Rapid display and dissemination
- Graphical SIGMET Product      ● Currently in development  (extracted from text SIGMET)
- Graphical Depiction of Ash Cloud      ● Either a new custom (computer-generated) product           or a pass through of a collaboratively produced           graphical metafile
- Advection and Dispersion of Ash Cloud      ● Short term forecast (1-3 hours) for ATC planning
- Hazard Assessment      ● Difficult problem!

## Anticipated Milestones:

**Anticipated Milestones:**

- FY04—automated global depiction of VA SIGMET areas
- FY04—collaboration established with Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, USGS, NOAA
- FY05—some collaborative tool capability with integrated wind fields and dispersion model output
- FY05—intelligent dispersion nowcast capability that integrates wind fields with several dispersion model outputs for plume characteristics (density, chemistry, particle size)
- FY08(?)—launch of GIFTS satellite, shakedown, testing of new sensing technologies

***The most difficult part of the problem is likely to ******be identifying the relationships between plume ******characteristics and hazards to aircraft systems!**** *