# Presentation: 925622

**Dr. Jack Hayes**
**NWS/Office of Science & Technology**
***January 17, 2002***

**National Weather Service**
**Science and Technology Infusion Plan**
**Roadmap to 2025**

***American Meteorological Society******18******th****** IIPS for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology***** **

## Outline

**NWS Office of Science and Technology**
**Science and Technology Infusion Plan**
***Background***
***Example Advances***
***Linking Initiatives to Results***
**Challenges**

##  NWS Office ofScience and Technology

**Drive ****Science and Technology Advances into ****NWS Operations**
***Respond to****** field****** ******requirements ******and****** ******emerging opportunities***
***Plan, develop, and implement****** ******enterprise solutions***
***Enable****** ******continuous improvement***

***Mission***

## NWS Office of Science and Technology

**Develop synergy among NWSHQ, RHQs, NCEP, and WFOs/RFCs**
**Reach out to external sources for new S&T**
**Foster creativity and innovation**
**Streamline S&T infusion**

***Striving for the Cutting Edge***

**WFOs**

**USWRP**

**OAR**

**HQ**

**Universities**

**RHQs**

**Centers**

**Other External R&D**

**NESDIS**

##  Science and Technology                        Infusion Plan

**NWS Modernization is Complete**
***NEXRAD***
***ASOS***
***AWIPS***
**Resulted in Significant Improvements in Weather Services **

**Average Warning Lead Time Flash Flood**

**Average Warning Lead Time Tornado**

***GOES Satellite Upgrades***
***Central Computer Facility Upgrades ***
***Restructured Field Operations***

*NWS Modernization Success*

## Science and Technology             Infusion Plan

**Users Continue     to Have Growing Needs**
**Science and Technology                                                Continues to Advance**

**  ****How Will NWS Respond and Continue to Improve?**

*Looking Beyond NWS Today*

## Science and Technology               Infusion Plan

**Establish S&T Direction for Future NWS**
**Respond to Operational Product and Service Needs**
**Identify Science and Technology Opportunities**
**Prioritize Investments**
**Support Disciplined and Streamlined Technology Insertion**
**Foster Partnering**

***Objectives***

## Science and Technology                        Infusion Plan

**NWS Today:****  **
***Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS***
**NWS Next:****  **
***What NWS will evolve to by 2010.***
**NWS After Next:****  **
***NWS of 20 or more years from now.***
**(from Dorman Report, 99)**

***Frame Work***

## Science and Technology                         Infusion Plan

**Internal Polling – December 2000**
**Synthesized Dorman, 3 NRC Reports**
**Roundtable Discussions - April**
**Workshop with External Community – Mid June**
**Internal Review Forum – Mid July**
**Senior NWS Management Review – Early August**

***Process To Date***

## Science and Technology                       Infusion Plan 

**Overarching Vision:**
**No Unanticipated Weather, Water, Climate, or Related**
**Environmental Events Impact Nation**
**NWS Provides World’s Best Information and Products**
**	**
**	****	****	****   ****	****	****	****  **_**2000**_**                **_**2025**_
**Tornadoes****	****	****	****	****12 mins****	**** ****40 mins**
**Thunderstorms****	****	****	****18 mins****	****  ****5 hours**
**Flash Floods****	****	****	****	****43 mins****	****  ****4 hours**
**Winter Storms****	****          ****	****	****	****9 hours****	****  ****2 days**

***Vision and Opportunities***

***Example Warning Lead Times***

## Science and Technology                          Infusion Plan

**Science and Technology                          Infusion Plan**

***	******	******	******	***

***Notional Elements***

***	***

** ****Best available**
** ****Data on demand**

** ****Min. 300 sust. tflps.**
** ****Wireless**

** ****Class IX/X comp.**
** ****AWIPS networks**

**Enabling Tech.**

** ****Video**
** ****Global access **

** ****Digital Radio**
** ****Internet 2 **

** ****NWR**
** ****SBN **

**Dissemination**

** ****Probability theory**
** ****Advanced hybrids**
** ****Seamless database **

** ****Neural nets**
** ****Fuzzy logic hybrids**
** ****4-D digital database **

** ****MOS**
** ****Decision Assist.**
** ****IFPS**

**Forecast Techniques and Product/Information Generation**

** ****Community      multiscale, fully coupled**

** ****WRF**
** ****Community  Global / Climate**

** ****Eta**
** ****MRF**
** ****Local Models**

**DA / Num. Pred.**

** ****Phased Array**
** ****UAV dropsondes**
** ****NPOESS**

** ****Dual Polarization**
** ****Expanded MDCRS**
** ****NPOESS Prep**

** ****NEXRAD PPI**
** ****Radiosondes Imp**
** ****POES/DMSP**

**Observations**

**After Next**

**Next**

**Today**

**Area**

**ASOS**
**Upper Air**
**Satellites**
**NEXRAD**

***More Frequent, More Detailed***

***Processor Upgrade***
***Dewpoint Sensor***
***All-Wx Precip. Gage***
***Ice-Free Wind Sensor***

***Open Systems Architecture***
***Science Infusion***
***Dual Polarization***
***Phased Array***

***GPS***

***Next Generation Satellites***

**Observations**

## Numerical Prediction

- Develop Advanced Mesoscale Forecast and Assimilation System
- Promote Partnerships Between Research and Operations

**Research:**

- Design for 1-10 km horizontal grids
- Portable and efficient on parallel computers
- Advanced data assimilation and model physics
- Well suited for a broad range of applications
- Community model with direct path to operations

*Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model*

## Advance Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

**Workstation:  100 MHz                1000 MHz**
**O&M:  15X Cost Reduction**
**Timeframe:  2001 - 2004**

**AWIPS to LINUX**

## Interactive Forecast            Preparation System

**Focuses NWS Meteorologist on                    Meteorology**
**Allows Private/ Public Sector to   Access Data Base for Their Own Application**
**Timeframe:  FY 2003 - 2005**

**Beyond 2005, working toward a complete seamless 4-D digital database of:**
***Observations***
***Analyses***
***Forecasts***
***Uncertainty Information***
***Outlooks, Watches, Warnings***

## Science and Technology PlanningLinking Initiatives to Results

-            _***Initiatives***_
**Observations**
**Data Assimilation **
**Numerical Prediction**
**Computing Capability**
**Forecaster Techniques**
**Dissemination Methods**

**Improved Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Forecasts**

**Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Etc.**

**Improved Aviation, Fire,  and Marine Forecasts**

**Improved Tornado and Flash Flood Forecasts**

**Improved Flood and River Predictions**

_***Results***_

## Challenges

**Keeping**** Pace with Science and Technology**
**Streamlining ****and**** Extending ****Architecture for More Rapid, Less Costly S&T Insertion**
**Evolving ****Organizational and Operations Concept Changes**
**Developing ****National Investment Plan That Can Generate and Sustain Necessary Resources**
**Incorporating**** Training and Education**