# Presentation: 525681

## New solutions to the Energy Crisis?

- Summer Series Lecture1 August, 2005

## The possibility (likelihood) of global warming and its consequences

-  Possible solutions

## 140 years is nothing by geological time scales!

- 19 of the 20 warmest years since 1860 have all occurred since 1980.
- 1998 was the warmest year in the instrumental record and probably the warmest in 1,000 years (tree rings, ice cores).

## Slide 4

## Slide 5

**Notes:**
Source: Steven Chu

## Can we predict climate change due to increased greenhouse gases?

- “Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.”

## Concentration of Greenhouse gases

## Can we predict the past?

**Climate change due to natural causes (solar variations, volcanoes, etc.)**

## CO2 Concentration, Temperature, and Sea Level

**Continue to Rise Long after Emissions are Reduced**

**100 years**

**1,000 years**

**Sea-level rise due to ice melting: **several millennia

**Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion: **
- centuries to millennia

**Temperature stabilization:**
- a few centuries

**CO****2 ****stabilization:**
- 100 to 300 years

**CO****2**** emissions**

**CO****2**** emissions peak**
- 0 to 100 years

**Today**

## Global warming is not only an increase in average temperature

- Extremes of hot and cold
- Wet and dry
- Increase in winds and storms
- Ocean currents and upwellings will change

- How much, where, when.

## Climate governs
Damage  from storms, floods, wildfires
Property losses from sea-level rise
Productivity of farms, forests, & fisheries
Livability of cities in summer
Distribution & abundance of species
Geography of disease

- Damage  from storms, floods, wildfires
- Property losses from sea-level rise
- Productivity of farms, forests, & fisheries
- Livability of cities in summer
- Distribution & abundance of species
- Geography of disease

## Proposed name change:

- Non-Glacier National Park.

## Larson Bice shelf break-up,

- Larson Bice shelf break-up,
- Antarctica, 2002

## Greenland is melting

## Bleached coral head:  Bleaching occurs when high water temperature kills the living organisms in the coral, leaving behind only the calcium carbonate skeleton.

**Bleached coral head**:  Bleaching occurs when high water temperature kills the living organisms in the coral, leaving behind only the calcium carbonate skeleton.

## Slide 16

## Slide 17

## Satellite photo of smoke from S California wildfires, October 2003

## In August 2003, France attributed over 3,000 deaths to a two week heat wave. 

- In August 2003, France attributed over 3,000 deaths to a two week heat wave.

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## Slide 21

## Slide 22

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## Kyoto Protocol target (Green line)

- Kyoto Protocol target (Green line)

## Computer simulations by the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab for CO2 increases above pre-industrial revolution levels:

- 2x CO2 : 5 – 8° F
- 4x CO2 : 15-25° F

- Pre-industrial: 			~275 ppmToday: 				~380 ppm

## Summer soil moisture in N America under doubled & quadrupled CO2 (from the Princeton GFDL model)

- Summer soil moisture in N America under doubled & quadrupled CO2 (from the Princeton GFDL model)
- Mid-continent soil-moisture reductions reach 50-60% in the 4xCO2 world.

## World demand of energy resources

## M. King Hubbert Predicted in 1959 that U.S. Domestic Production would Peak in 1970.

**M. King Hubbert Predicted in 1959 that U.S. Domestic Production would Peak in 1970**.

## Hubbert Curves with different assumptions of rate of decline using GSGS and DOE best estimates of total discovered and undiscovered global reserves

- Source: *World Energy Outlook, 2001* by the International Energy Agency, a body of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

- Hubbert Curves with different assumptions of rate of decline using GSGS and DOE best estimates of ***total*** discovered and undiscovered global reserves

## International Energy Agency (IEA) Carbon Emission forecast

- Between 2003-2030:
- New Coal Plants = 1.4 TW
- New Natural Gas Plants  = 1.9 TW

- The projected carbon emission in the next 30 years we will add 3x more CO2 emission than the previous 250 years!

- Energy from tar sands and shale oil will be as bad for CO2 emissions as coal .

## Energy conservation and efficiency can buy time(a factor of ~2 - 5) but the fundamental problem remains: how can we reduce CO2 emissions?

- Energy conservation and efficiency can buy time(a factor of ~2 - 5) but the fundamental problem remains: how can we reduce CO2 emissions?

## The possibility (likelihood) of global warming and its consequences

-  Possible solutions

## Nuclear Fusion

- Magnetic Plasma Confinement,
- Inertial Fusion

- Waste &
- Nuclear Proliferation

**Nuclear Fusion**

- 3 TW = One new GW reactor every week for the next 50 years)

## Waste production of plutonium, minor actinides, long-lived fission products

- There is hope: re-cycle fuel and research how to efficiently convert (via fission) long-lived nuclear waste into shorter-lived radioactive products

## Solar Energy: Photo-voltaic cells

**Notes:**
Nature has been converting sunlight, CO2 water and nutrients into chemical energy for billions of years. 

## Today:  Production Cost of Electricity

- 1-4 ¢

- 2.3-5.0 ¢

- 6-8 ¢

- 5-7 ¢

**Today:  Production Cost of Electricity**

- 6-7 ¢

- 25-50 ¢

- Cost, ¢/kW-hr

- Courtesy Nate Lewis

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**Coal**

**Gas**

**Oil**

**Wind**

**Nuclear**

**Solar**

**Cost**

## Solar Energy: Wind

**Notes:**
Nature has been converting sunlight, CO2 water and nutrients into chemical energy for billions of years. 

## Wind Power Generation

## Solar Energy: Hydro-electric as energy storage of electricity?

**Solar Energy: Hydro-electric as energy storage of electricity?**

- A possible energy storage

## Solar to Chemical Energy

**Photovoltaic******** electricity ****** **chemical**

**H  O**

**O**

**H**

**2**

**2**

**2**

**sc**

**M**

**e**

**sc**

**e**

**M**

**CO**

**Sugar**

**H  O**

**O**

**2**

**2**

**2**

**Solar to Chemical Energy**

**Semiconductor/****liquid junctions**

## Photosynthesis: Nature has found a way to convert sunlight, CO2, water and nutrients into chemical energy

**Photosynthesis:** Nature has found a way to convert sunlight, CO**2**, water and nutrients into chemical energy

## Slide 42

## The nanotechnology challenges:

-  Chemical conversion (the hardest part)

- Absorption of light and charge separation (easy)

-  Charge transfer (molecular) transport (harder)

## Sunlight

- CO2 H20
- Nutrients

- Biomass

- Chemical energy

- The majority of a plant is structural material

## Corn

## Net energy produced by growing corn for ethanol

## Total CO2 emissions of common fuels and corn production

## Sugar cane

## Switchgrass

## Sunlight

- CO2 H20
- Nutrients

- Biomass

- Chemical energy

- The majority of a plant is structural material

## Commercial ethanol production from cellulose

## Microbulbifer degradans

*Microbulbifer degradans*
- A group of microorganisms that degrades of a significant portion of the 50+ billion tons of cellulose

## Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling

- Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling

- Can synthetic organisms be engineered to produce ethanol, methanol or methane from cellulose?

## Sunlight

- CO2 H20
- Nutrients

- Biomass

- Chemical energy

- Can we modify existing organisms or design new ones to directly produce energy?

## A solution may lie at the interface of biology andthe physical sciences at the nano-scale

**A diversified portfolio of investments is needed**

## National   Concerns

-  **Sustainable, CO****2**** neutral energy**

**	****	****	****             ****which is intimately tied to energy security **

**1) National security   **

**3) The environment**

**2) Economic prosperity**

## Should we start an “Apollo Project” to solve the energy problem? 

- Should we start an “Apollo Project” to solve the energy problem?

## Bell Laboratories

## Slide 59

## Shockley

- Bardeen

- Brittain

- Materials Science
- Theoretical and experimental physics	- Electronic structure of 	 			semiconductors	- Electronic surface states	- p-n junctions

## “All the early lasers were developed first at industrial research organizations... what was needed was a big support organization which could focus different technologies on a common goal. At American Universities, you plod along with small groups of specialists.”

- Nico Bloembergen, On why he never tried to build the first laser

## UC BerkeleyCampus

- UC BerkeleyCampus

- Berkeley Lab 200-acre Research Campus

- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory3,800 employees,  ~ $500M budget

- 10 out of the 14 Nobel Prize winners in science at Berkeley were/are employees of LBNL
- Currently, there are ~59 employees in the National Academy of Sciences,18 in the National Academy of Engineering,2 in the Institute of Medicine

## ~ 25% of the Lawrence Berkeley Lab budget is in the biological and biophysical sciences

**Work for Others (excluding NIH) ($66M)**

**Energy Efficiency & ****Renewables ($26M)**

**Fusion Energy Sciences ($6M)**

**Nuclear Physics ($18M) **

**Basic Energy Sciences ($110M)**

**Biological and Environmental Research ($75M)**

**Math and Computing Sciences ($65M)**

**High Energy Physics ($43M)**

**Yucca Mtn. ($10M)**

**Fossil Energy ($5M)**

**National Institutes of Health ($44M)**

**~ 25% of the Lawrence Berkeley Lab budget is in the biological and biophysical sciences**

## Integration of many disciplines will be needed

**New ideas**

**Chemical Fuel From Solar Energy**

**Computing**
**Sciences**

**Materials**
**Science**

**Physics****Chemistry**

**Life**
**Sciences**

## Scientists continue to produce better predictions to Global Warming,

- Do pioneering research that will form the basis of transforming technological solutions to our energy crisis,
- and try to convince our world leaders to take immediate action ...

**Notes:**
Source: Steven Chu

## Slide 66