# Presentation: 524583

## SSG-WI 2015 Reference Case

**SSG-WI 2015 Reference Case**

- Modeling Assumptions
- Production Cost Modeling Results
- Overall Economics

- December 15, 2005

## Elements of 2015 Reference Case

- $9HH Gas

- Medium Loads
- 2003 Shapes

- Medium Hydro
- 2003 Actual

**Regional hydrology**

**Fuel Prices**

**Demand**

- $5HH Gas

- $7HH Gas

**Incremental **
**Investment in **
**Generation **
**(2008 to 2015) **

**Incremental**
**Investment  in**
**Transmission **
**(2008 to 2015) **

***Biomass***

***Coal***

***DSM***

***Hydro***

***Solar***

***Wind***

- Transmission to
-  integrate
- incremental
- resources

- From IRPs, other plans, & RPS:

***Gas***

- Approved
- transmission
-  projects

- 2008
- Base Case

**Resource and**
** ****Transmission **
**Base**
** **

***Geothermal***

*All analysis done in $US 2005*

## Incremental Transmission

- Palo Verde – Devers #2
- Tehachapi Wind transmission – 2 lines
- Navajo/Desert Rock; Four Corners – Moenkopi
- 4 Corners to Phoenix
-  North Phoenix (Raceway)
- Pinal Project
- Amps Phase Shifter (Mill Creek Phase Shifter)
- IV  San Diego 500kV
- Added transmission to integrate Springerville plant
- Added transmission to integrate Montana incremental transmission, increasing Montana to Northwest transfer by 750 MW (series compensation on the 500 kV lines)
- Added transmission from Wyoming to Utah to integrate Bridger #5
- Added transmission configured for the San Francisco Bay Area Project
- Imperial 2- 500 kV lines (one to San Diego and one to LA)
- Added transmission connection Kansas to Colorado, to integrate the 2-700 MW coal plants

**Notes:**
Load growth:  Rocky Mountain annual load growth: 2.3% energy, 2.8% peak
Western Interconnect annual load growth: 2% energy, 1.8% peak
 Hydro:  High: ~280,000GWh, Med: ~245,000GWh, Low: ~210,000GWh
Accelerated DSM: ~8% energy savings,  2013 loads reduced by ~8%
Fuel price conversions:
6.50 gas (2013) is 5.20 (2004), 4.50 gas (2013) is 3.60 (2004),
PRB minemouth: .50 coal (2013) is .40 (2004)
.69-1.56 (2013) is .55 - 1.25 (2004) – range is different sources than PRB, also incl transportation adjustments for trucking and rail
CO2:  $5 and $15/per ton applied to incremental emissions from the resource additions 
Mohave:  in, otherwise assumed to be retired by 2008

Simplifying assumptions
ABB Market Sim – detailed representation of WI transmission -- but to keep the modeling efficient and flexible, dispatch logic was stripped down.  
For example, the commitment logic removed, and simulation assumes a single, seamless West-wide market, with none of today’s inefficiencies due to multiple control areas and rate and loss charge pancaking.  
Details may be found in Chapter 2 and in Appendix F. 

## SSG-WI Path LimitsWECC Catalogue Operating Limits & Adjustments Made by SSG-WI

**Notes:**
Load growth:  Rocky Mountain annual load growth: 2.3% energy, 2.8% peak
Western Interconnect annual load growth: 2% energy, 1.8% peak
 Hydro:  High: ~280,000GWh, Med: ~245,000GWh, Low: ~210,000GWh
Accelerated DSM: ~8% energy savings,  2013 loads reduced by ~8%
Fuel price conversions:
6.50 gas (2013) is 5.20 (2004), 4.50 gas (2013) is 3.60 (2004),
PRB minemouth: .50 coal (2013) is .40 (2004)
.69-1.56 (2013) is .55 - 1.25 (2004) – range is different sources than PRB, also incl transportation adjustments for trucking and rail
CO2:  $5 and $15/per ton applied to incremental emissions from the resource additions 
Mohave:  in, otherwise assumed to be retired by 2008

Simplifying assumptions
ABB Market Sim – detailed representation of WI transmission -- but to keep the modeling efficient and flexible, dispatch logic was stripped down.  
For example, the commitment logic removed, and simulation assumes a single, seamless West-wide market, with none of today’s inefficiencies due to multiple control areas and rate and loss charge pancaking.  
Details may be found in Chapter 2 and in Appendix F. 

## 2015 Loads and Resources By Area 

## 2015 Resources By Area and Fuel Type 

## Over 52,000 MW in new capacity wasadded to the 2008 Base Case

***Retirements  are not shown***

## Total Cost of Reference Case 

##  2015 Reference Case Results

## Annual Generation and Load Served by Area

*$5 Gas*

## Capacity Factors Under Different Gas Prices By Region and Technology Type

**Capacity Factors Under Different Gas Prices ****By Region and Technology Type**

***Arguably, the Reference Case includes too many resources (30 percent planning margin for West after capacity discounts).  This leads to low capacity factors for thermal units, as reflected in the combined cycle (CCCT) and steam turbine (ST) technology columns***

##    Impact of Operating Phase Shifters Production Costs(2005 dollars in millions)

##   Production Costs (Annual Fuel and Other Variable O&M) (2005 dollars in millions)

**  ****Production Costs ****(Annual Fuel and Other Variable O&M) ****(2005 dollars in millions)**

## Congested Paths

## Congestion Cost

**Shadow price is calculated by the LP each hour for each constraint**
- Constraints are caused by transmission limits and generating unit limits (ramp rates, minimum up/down times, etc.)
- Shadow price is the production cost decrease if 1 MW limit of the constraint is relaxed
**Congestion Cost Calculation**
- Congestion cost is the sum of individual constraint impacts
- Cost per constraint is shadow price x load (MW flow) affected
- Total hourly cost is sum of all costs per constraint
- Total annual cost is the sum of all hourly constraint costs

**Notes:**
Load growth:  Rocky Mountain annual load growth: 2.3% energy, 2.8% peak
Western Interconnect annual load growth: 2% energy, 1.8% peak
 Hydro:  High: ~280,000GWh, Med: ~245,000GWh, Low: ~210,000GWh
Accelerated DSM: ~8% energy savings,  2013 loads reduced by ~8%
Fuel price conversions:
6.50 gas (2013) is 5.20 (2004), 4.50 gas (2013) is 3.60 (2004),
PRB minemouth: .50 coal (2013) is .40 (2004)
.69-1.56 (2013) is .55 - 1.25 (2004) – range is different sources than PRB, also incl transportation adjustments for trucking and rail
CO2:  $5 and $15/per ton applied to incremental emissions from the resource additions 
Mohave:  in, otherwise assumed to be retired by 2008

Simplifying assumptions
ABB Market Sim – detailed representation of WI transmission -- but to keep the modeling efficient and flexible, dispatch logic was stripped down.  
For example, the commitment logic removed, and simulation assumes a single, seamless West-wide market, with none of today’s inefficiencies due to multiple control areas and rate and loss charge pancaking.  
Details may be found in Chapter 2 and in Appendix F. 

## Opportunity Cost by Constrained Path

***Value if congestion on a congested path is relaxed by 1 MW***

## Difference in prices indicates congestion System peak hour,  July 13, 2015  $5 Gas 

** ****3PM**

***Differences *****in colors indicate differences in power prices.  Differences in prices indicate congestion****Congestion can be caused by transmission limits and losses and by generation limits**

**Congested paths**

***If there are no constraints, prices are the same system-wide***
***Limits on moving power from one area to another create differences in prices***
***Lower cost energy can become trapped in areas far from demand.  More expensive local generation is forced to run, driving up local prices.***

## Northwest to Canada Washington and southern British Columbia

- S
-  to
- N

## Idaho to PNW Duration Curve Southwest Idaho and Eastern Oregon/Washington and Northern Idaho

- E   to   W

## Montana to PNW Duration Curve

- E   to   W

## Bridger West

- E   to   W

## Path 26 Duration Curve

## SCIT Duration Curve

## East of the River Duration Curve western Arizona

## TOT2 (A+B+C) Duration Curve southern CO, southern Utah to N. Arizona and southern Utah to South-East Nevada 

## Path C Northern Utah/southern Idaho 

## IPP DC Intermountain to Adelanto station in southern California

## COI between Oregon and northern California

## PDCI

-  This path (between northern Oregon and Los Angeles) shows high utilization

## Alberta – British Columbia

## Bonanza West

## Brownlee East

## Cholla – Pinnacle Peak