# Presentation: 530457

## Canadian Oil Sands Outlook

**EIA 2007 Annual Energy Outlook **
**March 2007**

## Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers

**150 producer member companies **
**Explore for, develop and produce natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, synthetic crude oil, bitumen and sulphur throughout Canada **
**Members produce more than 95 per cent of Canada’s natural gas and crude oil**
**130 associate members provide a wide range of services that support the upstream crude oil and natural gas industry **

## Canada’s Oil and Gas Industryin the North American Energy Economy

**Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry****in the North American Energy Economy**

**Canada is the world’s 3rd largest natural gas producer**
**Canada is the world’s 8th largest crude oil producer**
- and moving up the list quickly with oil sands production increasing
**Canada is the largest supplier of energy to the United States**

| 2006 | Canadian Natural Gas | Canadian Petroleum |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Ranking of importers to U.S. |  |  |
| Share of U.S. consumption | 16% | 11% |
| Share of U.S. imports | 86% | 16% |

**#1**

**#1**

## U.S. Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products by Country of Origin

**U.S. Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products by Country of Origin**

**Petroleum Products**

**Crude Oil**

**#1**

**Source: EIA, Jan-Nov 2006**

**Canada, is the largest (#1) supplier  of crude oil and of crude oil and petroleum products to the US.**

## Oil & Gas Investment in Western Canada(Cdn $ billion)

## Comparative light, heavy and bitumen crude oil price

**Estimated bitumen price netback**

**Light crude oil price quoted in media**
**(West Texas Intermediate)**

**Heavy crude oil price at Hardisty**

**Comparative light, heavy and bitumen crude oil price**

## Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country

**Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2006**

**Canada, with 175 billion barrels in oil sands reserves, ranks 2****nd**** only to Saudi Arabia in global oil reserves **

## Oil Sands Production Technologies

**Oil Sands Production Technologies**

*Source: Syncrude*

*Source:  Imperial Oil*

*Source:  Shell Canada*

*Source: Petro-Canada*

**Cyclic Steam Process**

**20% less than 50 m deep**

**80% more than 50 m deep**

## Oil sands Mining and Upgrading Process

- Photos courtesy of Syncrude Canada

- 4 tonnes material

- 1.2 barrels
- bitumen

- 2 tonnes of oil sands

- 1 barrel synthetic
- (upgraded) crude oil

- 2 tonnes of oil sands
- through separator

- 0.5 - 0.7 mcf/barrel

## Oil Sands Projects in Three Deposits

- In Situ Projects

- Mining Projects

| Athabasca – Mining                                                     Barrels per day |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Operator | Project | Initial  | Potential |
| Albian/Shell | Muskeg/Jackpine | 150,000 | 550,000 |
| Suncor | Base Plant | 280,000 | 550,000 |
| Syncrude | Base Plant | 300,000 | 600,000 |
| CNRL | Horizon (2008) | 110,000 | 232,000 |
| Imperial | Kearl (2010) | 100,000 | 300,000 |
| Petro-Canada | Fort Hills (2011) | 50,000 | 190,000 |
| Synenco | Northern Lights (2010) | 50,000 | 100,000 |
| Total E&P | Joslyn Creek Mine (2013) | 50,000 | 200,000 |
| Athabasca – In Situ Thermal |  |  |  |
| JACOS | Hangingstone (pilot) | 10,000 | 30,000 |
| Suncor | Firebag | 35,000 |  |
| ConocoPhillips | Surmont (2006) | 16,000 | 110,000 |
| Devon | Jackfish (2008) | 35,000 | 70,000 |
| Encana | Christina/Foster (2006) | 30,000 | 400,000 |
| Husky | Sunrise (2012) | 60,000 | 240,000 |
| OPTI/Nexen | Long Lake (2007) | 70,000 | 140,000 |
| Petro-Canada | MacKay River (2009) | 24,000 | 60,000 |
| Total E&P | Joslyn Creek (2006) | 10,000 | 40,000 |
| Cold Lake – In Situ Thermal |  |  |  |
| Blackrock | Orion-Hilda Lake pilot | 500 | 20,000 |
| CNRL | Wolf Lake/Primrose | 50,000 | 120,000 |
| Imperial | Cold Lake | 130,000 | 180,000 |
| Husky | Tucker (2006) | 18,000 | 35,000 |
| Peace River – In Situ Thermal |  |  |  |
| Shell | Peace River | 12,000 | 100,000 |

- Muskeg River
- Albian

- Christina Lake

**Peace River**

- Peace River

**Fort**
**McMurray**

- Fort Hills

- Horizon

- Joslyn Creek

- Syncrude

- Suncor

- MacKay River

- Firebag

- Hangingstone

- Long Lake

- Surmont

- Foster Creek

- Jackfish

- Kearl Lake

- Jackpine

- Sunrise

- Northern Lights

- Whitesands

- Seal (Blackrock)

## Bitumen Upgraders in AlbertaCapacity by 2015

| Existing: | Volume (bpd) |  |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Albian-Scotford | 158,000  |  |
| Husky-Lloydminster | 59,000  |  |
| Suncor | 260,000  |  |
| Syncrude | 350,000  |  |
| Expansions:                                                                  Comment |  |  |
| Albian-Scotford | 397,000  | Expansion w/plans for a total of 555,000 bpd |
| Husky-Lloydminster | 65,600  | Expansion (2011) |
| Suncor | 287,000  | 97,000 b/d expansion of Upgrader 2 & in-situ to total planned 357,000 b/d in 2008. Upgrader 3, additional 190,000 b/d to 550,000 b/d in 2012. |
| Syncrude | 160,000  | Phased expansion (2012-2015) – 510,000 bpd |
| New projects: |  |  |
| BA Energy-Heartland | 260,000  | Phase 1 - 77,500 bpd (2008). 3-phase expansion to 260,000 bpd |
| CNRL-Horizon | 232,000  | Phase 1-3 (2011). Phase 1 in 2008 – 110,000 bpd. |
| Nexen/Opti-Long Lake | 173,000  | On-stream late 2007.  |
| North American (Kai Kos Dehseh)  | 250,000 | Phase 1 – 76,000 bpd (2012). Phase 2 to 250,000 bpd by 2015 |
| Northwest Upgrading | 150,000 | 3 phased expansion. On stream in 2010, phase 2 – 2012-2014 |
| Petro-Canada | 85,000 | Refinery conversion to upgrader/refinery in late 2008 |
| Petro-Canada/UTS-Fort Hills | 240,000 | Phase 1 – 140,000 bpd (2011). Phase 2 - 240,000 bpd by 2014 |
| PRO (Bluesky) | 50,000 | Phase 1 on-stream 2011.  |
| SynEnCo-Northern Lights | 100,000  | Phase 1 – 50,000 bpd in 2010, phase 2 – 50,000 bpd in 2012 |
| Total E&P | 85,000 | On-stream in 2014 |
| TOTAL | 3,361,600 |  |

## Canadian Oil ProductionConventional, Oil Sands and Offshore

**Western Canadian Conventional Oil**

**Oil Sands**

**Offshore**

**  ****Source: CAPP**

_**Oil Sands Production:**_** **
**2006 = 1.1 million b/d**
**2015 = 2.9-3.5 mm b/d**
**2020 = 3.3-4.0 mm b/d**

**Constrained**
**Case**

## Top 10 World Crude Oil Producers in 2005

**Source: EIA & CAPP**

## Oil Sands Capital Costs IncreasesGlobal Cost Increases Not Just Local

**Production**
**Start Date**

**2001**

**2003**

**2006**

**2007**

**2008**

**2010**

- *Syncrude includes base plant quality improvements and power

**Capital Cost of 100,000 bbl/day project**
**$3.3 billion ****	****	****	****	****	****$10 billion**

## Construction Workforce Outlook – Nov 2005

**Source: Construction Owners Association of Alberta (COAA) Nov 2005**

- IOL – Mackenzie Gas Project

- Synenco Northern Lights
- Phases 1 & 2

- Suncor Firebag
- mining & extraction

**Albian Sands Downstream Exp**

**Albian Sands Jackpine Mine **

**North West Upgrader**

**Suncor Firebag & **
**Voyageur**

**Syncrude S3dbn**

***CNRL – Horizon***
***Phases 1 &2***

**Syncrude UE1 & SERP**

**PC/UTS Forth Hill **

- OPTI Canada/ Nexen Upgrader

**CNRL Horizon Phase 3**

**IOL Oilsands Mine**

**Conoco Surmont**

**Petro Canada**

- Syncrude SERP

**IOL**

- Husky Tucker Thermal

- EnCana Foster Creek

## Construction Workforce Outlook – Oct 2006

**Source: Construction Owners Association of Alberta (COAA) Oct 2006**

**CNRL – Horizon**
**Phases 1 &2**

- IOL – Mackenzie Gas Project

- OPTI Canada/ Nexen Upgrader

**IOL Cold Lake**

**Suncor Firebag & **
**Voyageur**

**Albian Sands – Jackpine & Upgrader Expansion**

**PC/UTS Fort Hill**** **

**Conoco Surmont**

**Petro Canada**

- Synenco Northern Lights
- Phases 1 & 2

**Joslyn**

**Syncrude UE1**
**& SERP**

**Northwest**

**Syncrude**

**North**
**American**

## Moving a Suncor Coker at 10-15 km

**Moving a Suncor Coker at 10-15 km**
**per hour all the way from Edmonton**

**Need for Infrastructure**

## Crude Oil Supply and Pipeline Expansions

**Thousand Barrels Per Day**

**Crude Oil Supply and Pipeline Expansions**

**Existing / Planned**
**Expansions**

**Enbridge Southern Access**

**TransMountain TMX 1**

**TransCanada Keystone**

**Constrained**
**Case**

**New Pipelines/Expansions**

**Enbridge Clipper**

## Canadian & U.S. Crude Oil Pipelines

***Platte***

**St. James**

**Burnaby**

**Portland**

**Salt Lake City **

**Houston**

**Anacortes**

**Canadian & U.S. Crude Oil Pipelines**

**Enbridge Gateway**
- Capacity	400 kbpd
- In service	2012-14

***Express***

**Montreal**

**Lima**

**Chicago**

**Cushing**

***Trans Mountain ***

**TransCanada**
**AB-California**
- Capacity	400 kbpd
- In service	2012
**AB-USGC**
- Capacity	400-600 kbpd
- In service	2012

**Guernsey**

**Hardisty**

**Edmonton**

**Kinder Morgan**
**TMX Northern Leg**
- Capacity	400 kbpd
- In service	2012
**TMX2 Expansion**
- Capacity	100 kbpd
- In service	2011
**TMX3 Expansion**
- Capacity	300 kbpd
- In service	2011

***Enbridge***

***BP***

**Enbridge North**
**Alberta Clipper**
- Capacity	450+ kbpd
- In service	mid-2010
**Southern Access**
- Capacity	400 kbpd
- In service	2009
**Southern Lights**
- Capacity	185 kbpd
- In service	4Q 2008
**Line 5 Expansion**
- Capacity	50 kbpd
- In service	2008
**Line 6B Expansion**
- Capacity	44 kbpd
- In service	2009
**Line 6C New Line**
- Capacity	350 kbpd
- In service	2011
**Line 9 Reversal**
- Capacity	180 kbpd
- In service	2009

**Sarnia**

**TransCanada**
**Keystone**
- Capacity	435 kbpd
- In service 	late 2009
**Cushing Extension**
- Capacity	155 kbpd
- In service	late 2010
**Heartland Extension**
- Capacity	600 kbpd
- In service	2009-10

**Enbridge South**
**New Line**
- Capacity	450 kbpd
- In service	2010
**New Line**
- Capacity	na
- In service	2012-14
**Spearhead Expansion (N/S)**
- Inc. Capacity	65 kbpd
- In service	2009
**North Loop to Chicago**
- In service	2009
**Enbridge New Line**
- Capacity	400 kbpd
- In service	2010

**BP**
**Light line ex-Chicago**
- Capacity	180 kbpd
- In service	2009

**Altex**
- Capacity	250+ kbpd
- In service	2011

**ExxonMobil**
**Mustang Expansion**
- Capacity	38 kbpd
- In service	late 2008
**Pegasus Expansion**
- Capacity	31 kbpd
- In service	late 2008
**Clydesdale New Line**
- Capacity	280+ kbpd
- In service	2010

**Kinder Morgan**
**Express Option 1**
- Capacity	160 kbpd
- In service	2010
**Express Option 2**
- Capacity	55 kbpd
- In service	2010
**Express Bullet**
- Capacity	400+ kbpd
- In service	2010
**Express Routing**
**Patoka South**

**Wood**
**River**

**Patoka**

**Sunoco New Line**
- Capacity	200 kbpd
- In service	2012

***ExxonMobil***

## Oil Sands Production TechnologiesAlternatives to Natural Gas

**THAI****TM**** (Toe-to-Heel Air Injection)**
**Petrobank Whitesands Project **

**OrCrude Process - Nexen/OPTI Longlake**

**Multiphase Superfine Atomized Residue - DeerCreek**

**Suncor 3****rd**** Upgrader - Coke Gasification **

**Notes:**
2003 a land mark as oil sands production hits 1 million b/d

Most development concentrated in Athabasca and Cold Lake areas - only Shell at Peace River since 1941

$87 billion not ion this forecast time frame, this figure includes some infrastructure like pipelines $

Significant Potential - EUB has over 100 scheme registered

## Environmental Stewardship

**Air**
- Monitoring programs
- Reducing emissions
- CO2 capture and EOR
**Water**
- Reduce, recycle and reuse
- Insitu using “saline” aquifers
- More efficient, 90+% recycle
**Land**
- Reclamation and remediation
- Directional drilling from single site to reduce impact

## 100th Caterpillar 797 Truck sold to the oil sands March 14, 2007

- Photo: Shell Canada