# Presentation: 075177

## Science and Technology Infusion Plan
for
Marine Services

**for**
**Marine Services**

*Jeff Savadel*

- NWS S&T Committee
- September 17, 2002

## Outline

**Team Composition**
**Vision / Benefits**
**Goals / Targets**
**Key Information Gaps **
**Key Solutions**
**Outstanding R & D Needs**
**Summary**

## Marine ServicesTeam Composition

**Jeff Savadel - NWS/OST**
**Therese Pierce - NWS/OCWWS**
**Marty Ralph - OAR/ETL**
**James Partain - NWS/NCEP**
**Tom Ainsworth - NWS/WR**
**Andy Patrick - NWS/SR**

**Greg Mann – NWS/CR**
**C-S Wu - NWS/OST**
**Wendell Nuss - Naval    Postgraduate School**
**Larry Burroughs - NWS/NCEP**
**Richard May - NWS/OCCWS**

## Marine ServicesVision / Benefits

** ****Reduce Storm-Related Mariner Losses by 25%**
** ****Expected Savings of $700M/Year (Heinz Center Report)**
** ****Expected Savings $30M/Year – Gulf of Maine Study (2002)**

_**Vision**_
**Forecast Accuracy for Winds and Waves of 75% at 10 Days**

## Marine Services Goals/Targets to FY 12

| Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan (S) Performance Measure | Current Skill | FY07            Goal     Target |  | FY12 Target  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Wind/Wave Combined (Accuracy) (G) | 51%  | 58% | NA | NA |

| Proposed Performance Measure | Current Skill | FY07            Goal     Target |  | FY12 Target |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Wind Speed (Accuracy) (G) | 52% | 63% | 63% | 72% |
| Wave Height (Accuracy) (G) | 63% | 78% | 78% | 85% |
| Gale and Stronger Warnings (Accuracy) (S)  | 23% | 22%
25%* | 28% | 33% |

*** Realistic goal as set by team**

## Marine ServicesKey Information Gaps

**More Atmospheric and Oceanic Observations – Ocean, Coastal, Great Lakes (i.e. Large Data Voids)**
**More Accurate 3D Picture of Atmosphere – Ocean, Coastal, Great Lakes (No Observations in Vertical)**
**Improve Model Resolution and Physics**
**More Training/****Decision Support Systems**

## Marine Services Key S&T Solutions

| Gap | Solution | Impact |
| --- | --- | --- |
| More Atmospheric and Oceanic Observations (i.e. Large Data Voids) | Expand CMAN/Buoy Network
Satellite Upgrades | 1⁄2 of All Warnings Came from Buoy Info Pre-Satellite Winds |
| More Accurate 3D Picture of Atmosphere (No Obs in Vertical) | Coastal and Buoy Mounted Profilers
Satellite Upgrades | Improved Wind/Wave Forecasts
Improved NWP |
| Improve Model Resolution and Physics | 8 km WRF
45 km GFS
10 km Wave Model
Cpld Land/Ocean/ Atmosphere/Ice
GODAS  | Low-Level Wind Forecast Improved by 20% for Day1/Day2
100% Coverage of Oceans/Lakes |
| More Training/ Decision Support Systems
 | Marine PDS
SAFESEAS
 | General Improvement in Understanding/Forecasts
Increased Situational Awareness |

## Marine Services Key S&T Solutions

**Marine Services ***Key S&T Solutions*

**03**

**04**

**05**

**06**

**07**

**08**

**09**

**10**

**11**

**12**

**Observations**

**DA/NWP**

**Applications**

**01**

**02**

**Expand Buoy Network / Coastal Profilers *******

- Deployment

- OTE

- DTE

- R&D

**Buoy Profilers**

**8 km WRF *******

**10 km Wave Model**

**Coupled Ocean/Atm/Ice *******

**Coupled Land/Ocean/Atm**

**SAFESEAS**

**45 km GFS**

**METOP- ASCAT 12km**

**SSM/I + SSMIS**

**Marine PDS**

**Training**

**NPP - NPOESS**

**ADEOS2**

**GODAS**

## Marine ServicesOutstanding R&D Needs

**Continue Development and Evaluation of New Observing Systems**
**Improve NWP of Marine Boundary Layer**
**Improve Understanding of Meso-Scale Atmospheric/Oceanic Processes in Coastal Zones**
**Develop Methods to Deliver Marine Info (Text and Graphics) to All Mariners**
**Develop Coastal Flood Model**

## Marine Services Summary

**Marine Services**** ***Summary*

**2007**

**2012**

**Increasing Performance**

**2020**

_**Vision**_
***75% Wind and Wave Accuracy***

**2002**

- Improve Ocean/Atm Model Resolution and Physics
- Increase 3D Coastal and Ocean Obs.

- Improve Coupling of Ocean/Atm Model
- Improve Decision Support Systems
- Improve Remote Sensing Capabilities

_**R&D Needs**_
**Develop New Observing Systems**
**Improve NWP of Marine Boundary Layer**
**Improve Understanding of Meso-Scale Atmospheric/Oceanic Processes in Coastal Zones**
**Develop Advanced Dissemination Methods**
**Develop Coastal Flood Model**

- Continuous Training / Regional Workshops

## Back-up Information

## General Public
Professional mariners
National Ocean Service
U.S. Navy
U.S. Coast Guard
Maritime Administration
Corps of Engineers
Dept. of Defense
Federal Management Agency
U.S. Geological Survey
American Red Cross
World Meteorological Organization

**Professional mariners**
**National Ocean Service**
**U.S. Navy**
**U.S. Coast Guard**
**Maritime Administration**
**Corps of Engineers**
**Dept. of Defense**
**Federal Management Agency**
**U.S. Geological Survey**
**American Red Cross**
**World Meteorological Organization**

**Primary Customers/Partners**

## Key Products/Services

**Data**
***buoy, C-MAN, ship observations, Ice observations***
**Forecasts**
***coastal waters, nearshore, recreational, bay and coastal marine, surf, open lake, ice, Alaska bay and coastal***
***high seas, offshore, navtex, extratropical storm surge***
**Warnings **
***special marine, marine weather statements, lakeshore, coastal flood***
***Tsunami***

## Marine ServicesWind Accuracy

## Marine ServicesWave Accuracy

**Marine Services***Wave Accuracy*

## Marine Services Wind Warning Accuracy

**Marine Services**** ***Wind Warning Accuracy*

## Marine Services Wind Warning Accuracy

**Marine Services**** ***Wind Warning Accuracy*

## Marine Services Goals/Targets to FY 12

**Marine Services**** ***Goals/Targets to FY 12*

| Existing GPRA Performance Measure | Current Skill | FY07 Goal | FY12 Target  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Wind/Wave  | 51% | 58% | NA |

| Proposed Performance Measure | Current Skill | FY07 Target | FY12 Target |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Wind Speed | 52% | 63% | 72% |
| Wave Height | 63% | 78% | 85% |
| Gale/Stronger Warnings  | 23% | 25%** | 33% |

- On Track

- Low Risk

- High Risk

- Discontinue