# Presentation: 231015

## Changes in U.S. Energy Policy Over the Last 30 Years

- Dr. Mark Rodekohr
- May, 2000
- Kathmandu, Nepal

## Outline

- Historical Context
- Petroleum Regulations
- Natural Gas Regulations
- Electric Utility Regulations
- Other Regulations
- Information Collection Requirements
- Summary

## Prelude 1850 to 1970

## Crude Oil Prices Since 1861

## U.S. Energy Production 1850 - 1970

**Coal**

**Oil**

**Wood**

**Natural Gas**

## World Oil Production 1865 - 1935

## World Oil Production 1945 - 1995

## Other Important Events Prior to 1973

- Mineral Rights – the U.S. is one of the few countries in the world where land owners retain the rights to resources that reside under their property.
- WWII – during WWII it was necessary to ration oil and governments understood the strategic importance of oil.

## Post 1973

## Major Disruptions ofWorld Oil Supply

**Notes:**
  The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo was the first oil supply disruption to cause major price increases and a worldwide energy crisis.
  In Fifteen years during the last half of the 20th century major disruptions in world oil supplies have occurred.  Six of those instances decreased the world oil supply by at least 2 million barrels per day (see illustration above).
  In 1950, the United States provided 52 percent of the world’s crude oil production;  by 1997 that figure had dropped to 10 percent.
  Virtually all spare oil production capacity was in the Middle East when the Arab Oil Embargo began in October 1973.
  Supply disruptions increased in severity as world oil production increased and production shifted to less secure areas of the Middle East.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Interagency Database and Projections Working Group.

## Slide 11

## Slide 12

## Slide 13

## Petroleum Regulations

## Some of the things being said in 1973 

- _Time_ magazine asserted: “The world [will] never be the same.  The sudden shortage of fuel has finally jolted governments into a realization that the era of cheap and ample energy _is dead_ and that people will have to learn to live _permanently_ with less heating, lighting and transport and pay more for each of them. Obviously, little was understood at the time about the potential for energy efficiency and expanded energy supplies. ”

## Some of the things being said in 1973 (continued)

- A cartoon on the cover of _Time_ late in the year showed an American in his living room with icicles forming on his overcoat and cap because he couldn’t get heat.  Another cartoon, showed a Persian Gulf sheik squeezing Uncle Sam in a narrow oil pipeline.  Another showed a frustrated motorist with a gun about to shoot out the engine of his car.

## Daniel Yergin in the Prize Stated

-   “In the midst of... cutbacks, there was great uncertainty about how much oil was available, combined with an inevitable tendency to exaggerate the loss.  The confusion resulted from the contradictory and fragmentary nature of information and from the massive disruption of established supply channels, all overlaid by rabid and violent emotions.  Unanswered questions made the fear and disarray even worse.”

## Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act 1973

- Objective:
- Authorized a petroleum allocation system and oil price controls
- Status:
- Remains in effect but has been amended several times.

## Energy Policy and Conservation Act 1975

- Objective:
- Authorized rationing
- Created the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
- Authorized the Corporate Average Fleet Efficiency standards
- Status:
- Amended

## Impacts

- Allocation systems did not work well causing long lines and a misallocation of resources.
- For a time there were several types (old and new oil) which caused additional misallocations.
- The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was created and exists today.

## Synthetic Fuels Corporation Act of 1985 

- Eliminated the Synthetic Fuels Corporation.

## Impacts

- Was originally expected to guarantee $88 billion in loans but ended up guaranteeing only $2.2 billion and resulted in very little production from such sources.  In fact there is only one plant in the United States that produces liquids using natural gas as a feedstock.

## Crude Oil Windfall Profits Tax Act of 1980 

- Objective:
- Imposed additional taxes on oil producers. Decontrolled oil prices.
- Status:
- Repealed in 1988.

## Impact

- Some additional taxes were collected for a few years but collections were well below expectations in part because prices declined.  The law was also difficult to administer.
- However this act did serve to speed up deregulation efforts.

## World Oil Projections

## Petroleum Demand Projections

## Petroleum Supply Projections

## U.S. Crude Oil Prices

**Notes:**
  The real price (inflation-adjusted) of crude oil paid by refiners (refiners acquisition costs) rose from $10.72 in 1972 to $16.98 in 1997, an increase of  58 percent.
  Prices peaked in 1981 during the Iranian revolution.  The Iran-Iraq war increased fears of another disruption.
  Since 1981 there has been a steady decline in oil prices due in part to the following:
-- supplies from non-OPEC sources increased and absorbed some of the demand for OPEC oil .
-- revenue requirements by members of OPEC led to a consistent overproduction above their established quotas.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 5.19.

## U. S. Retail Price of Gasoline

**Notes:**
  During the past 25 years, the nominal price of gasoline (price not adjusted for inflation) has risen at an average annual rate of 5.2 percent;  the real price of gasoline (price adjusted for inflation) rose only one-fourth of a percent per year.
Gasoline prices (real and nominal) reached a peak in 1981.
  Gasoline prices declined after 1981 despite a steady rise in real taxes, a reflection of world crude oil market movement.
  The nominal price of gasoline dropped about 31 percent between 1981 and 1986, a post-embargo low.
  The real price of gasoline dropped 43 percent between 1981 and 1986, and continued a slow decline for  2 years more.  By 1988, the price of gasoline  had declined 45 percent, for a  post-embargo low.
  Gasoline price increases are strongly influenced by the price of crude oil.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 5.22.  
Note(s): 1972-1977:  price of leaded regular gasoline was used;  1978-1996:  price for all types of gasoline was used.

## Imported Oil as a Percent of Total U. S. Consumption

**Notes:**
   The share of total U.S. consumption of imported oil declined significantly in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s.  High oil prices prompted consumers to conserve energy and to switch to other fuels.
  U. S. dependence on imported oil increased to record levels during the last 25 years.  Net imports provide 48 percent of U.S. oil consumption -- (net imports: imports minus exports).
  The share of total U.S. consumption of imported oil has grown since oil prices collapsed in 1986 -- Gross imports account for 53 percent of U.S oil consumption  (gross imports: no offsets for oil exports).

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 5.1.

## Percent of OPEC and Persian Gulf World Oil Production

**Notes:**
  The share of world oil production provided by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) declined by 25 percentage Points between 1973 and 1985.
  OPEC’s market share was at it’s lowest prior to the major collapse in oil prices in 1986.
  OPEC’s market share has rebounded since the 1986 price collapse and now stands at about 43 percent of world oil production.
  Unlike most other countries, a major portion of OPEC’s oil is traded in international markets.  OPEC consumes very little of its own oil.
  The largest portion of OPEC’s oil production is in those countries that surround the Persian Gulf.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 11.4.

## U. S. Total Petroleum Consumption

**Notes:**
  The total petroleum consumption in the United States has grown at an average annual rate of  0.5 percent, during the past 25 years.
  Following the 1973 OPEC price increases, U.S. consumption of petroleum declined for 2 years to a level of 16 million barrels per day by 1975.  After which it rose until 1979 when the Iranian revolution caused the oil price to rise and consumption to decline.
  A marked decline in petroleum consumption in the United States continued into the early 1980’s.  By 1983, the United States was consuming a low of 15.2 million barrels per day—a decline of almost 20 percent from the record consumption level of 18.9 million barrels per day in 1978. 
  Since 1983, the United States has experienced a rather steady increase in petroleum consumption.   The present-day consumption level is nearly equal to the 1978 all-time high petroleum consumption  level.
  In 1990, another oil price increase during the Persian Gulf war caused a slight and temporary decline in  U.S. oil consumption.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 5.1.

## U. S. Per Capita Use of Petroleum

**Notes:**
  The per capita  (per person)  use of petroleum decreased at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent during the past 25 years.
  The U.S. per capita use of petroleum decreased for 2 years and then increased to a peak of 31 barrels in 1978.
  From 1978 to 1983, petroleum use per capita in the United States dropped 23 percent, from a peak of 31.0 barrels.  (During this period the population rose 5.5 percent.)
  From 1978 to 1983, the consumption of total petroleum in the United States declined almost 20 percent.
  From 1983 to 1988, crude prices declined in both real and nominal terms, and petroleum use per capita rose slightly.  After 1988, petroleum use per person declined, leveling off at about 25 barrels per capita.
  Expansion of gas availability and environmental considerations in recent years helped stabilize per capita oil use—especially oil used for industrial and electricity production.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Tables 5.1 and 1.5.

## U. S. Government Owned Crude Oil Stocks

**Notes:**
  The U.S. Government initiated the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in 1976.
  In 1977,  the SPR fill rate began with imported crude oil.  By 1994, the Reserve had reached its maximum storage of 592 million barrels.
  The SPR fill rate ended in 1994.  As of 1997, the Reserve storage is at 563 million barrels of crude—about 63 days of net U.S. petroleum imports.
  The United States has held two public sales of crude oil from the Reserve in 1990/91 and 1996/97.
  The first public sale – 21 million barrels at the time of the Gulf war—was intended to stabilize the price of crude oil, which had risen to more than $33 per barrel.  A second  public sale of 28 million barrels occurred in 1996/97.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 5.15.

## Cost of Finding Oil and Gas Reserves

**Notes:**
  The cost of finding  new oil and gas reserves has declined significantly since 1977 when EIA began collecting these data.
  A new barrel of  oil or gas reserves that cost about $15 to find in 1977 (inflation- adjusted price), costs less than $5 to find today.
  Reserve cost reductions occurred primarily because of significant improvements in exploration and development technology.

Source: Form EIA-28, “Financial Reporting System.” 
Note(s):  Costs are calculated as the ratio of total exploration and development expenditures to total oil and gas reserve additions (barrels of oil equivalent), for the major energy producers reporting to the Energy Information Administration.  All costs are expressed in 1996 dollars, excluding the purchases and sales of reserves, and are 3-year weighted averages centering on the year shown.

## U. S. MPG Ratings for New Vehicles

**Notes:**
  The average annual rate of increase in the miles per gallon (mpg) rating for automobiles is 2.7 percent.
  From 1975 to 1996, the average annual increase in the mpg rating for automobiles and light trucks is 2.3 percent.  (Light trucks includes minivans, sport utility vehicles and small pickup trucks.)
  In 1975, Congress authorized the Department of Transportation to set and enforce automobile efficiency standards (CAFE: Corporate Average Fuel Economy).  The miles per gallon rating for new automobiles increased steadily from 1975 through 1988.
  After 1988, new automobile operating efficiency leveled off at about 28.5 mpg.
  Today, CAFE standards are 27.5 mpg for passenger cars and 20.7 mpg for light trucks.
  From the late 1980’s to present,  light trucks gained market share and began to slowly pull the mpg-combined-average rating below the 1987 peak.

Source:  Environmental Protection Agency,  Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends Through 1996, EPA/AA/TDSG/96-01, (Ann Arbor MI—August 1996), Table 1.

## U. S. Average Horsepower of a New  Vehicle

**Notes:**
  Average horsepower of cars and light trucks decreased from 137 horsepower in 1975 to a low of 102 in the 1981/82 period, then rose 63 percent by 1996.  (Light trucks includes minivans, sport utility vehicles and small pickup trucks.)
  New car efficiency standards became effective in 1978, stimulating development of smaller cars, more efficient engines and improvements in major vehicle components—all of which contributed to improved fuel efficiency.    With such changes, efficiency standards were achieved with progressively higher powered cars.
  Since 1982, the average horsepower of new vehicles has increased steadily, even as sales for high-powered cars and light trucks dominate the sales for lower horsepower.   Meanwhile, corporate average fleet efficiencies continue to meet the standard of 27.5 mpg for passenger cars.

Source:  Environmental Protection Agency,  Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends Through 1996, EPA/AA/TDSG/96-01, (Ann Arbor, MI—August 1996), Table 1.

## Share of U. S. Homes Heated With Oil

**Notes:**
  The share of homes using oil heat has gradually fallen from 31.0 percent in 1972 to 15.3 percent in 1996.  The number of homes using oil heat has fallen by 23 percent.
  From 1973 to late 1980 -- after the Arab oil embargo and the subsequent increase in the price of oil heat—there was a moratorium on building new homes with natural gas heat in many northern regions.  As a result, the decline in oil heat was somewhat slower than it would have been.
  Oil heat was also displaced by electric heat, which is more readily available in outlying suburban areas where most new homes are built.  In addition, there has been a slightly higher population growth in the Southern and Western regions of the United States, where electric home heating (and cooling) is a frequent choice.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 2.6.
Note:  Oil heated homes can use either heating oil or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for forced air furnaces, hot water central heating, or small portable kerosene heaters.

## Share of U. S. Electricity Generated By Petroleum

**Notes:**
  The share of electric utility net generation from oil has decreased 14 percentage points since 1972, to about 2.5 percent of all electricity generation.
  Changes in the generating capacity are relatively slow and fuel choice is based on projections of future fuel prices.
  In the mid-1970’s, oil-fired generation represented 16 to 17 percent of the nation’s capability based on forecasts made in the 1960’s and early 1970’s of continued growth of  electricity demand and stable supplies of cheap fuel oil. 
  Oil has been displaced as the prime mover principally by the growth in coal generation spurred by higher oil prices in the 1970’s; and much more recently by flexible natural gas-fired generation.
  After 1978, oil-fired generation fell steadily to about 2.5 percent in 1997.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 8.3.

## U. S. Crude Oil Reserves

**Notes:**
  Since 1972, economic conditions and technological capability have varied dramatically. Crude oil reserve estimates have varied because improved technology has increased finding rates. Oil now can be economically produced in the United States from more marginal fields than was the case in 1972.
  In 1972 the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimates of crude oil reserves were 36.3 billion barrels.
  EIA and API estimates differed by 2.3 billion in 1977 -- when they first overlapped.  The differences were attributed principally to the different approaches to reserves estimation.
  In 1996 EIA’s estimates of crude oil reserves were 22.0 billion barrels.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 4.10.
Note(s):  Prior to 1977: A technical committee sponsored by the API assembled these data.  Beginning in 1977: EIA was solely responsible for assembling the crude reserves data.  Oil reserves:  The estimated quantities that can be recoverable with reasonable certainty in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.

## Petroleum Futures And Options Markets Changed Energy Marketing

**Options**

**Notes:**
  Since starting with heating oil futures in 1978, energy futures and options markets on the New York Mercantile Exchange have grown and profoundly changed energy marketing.
  Crude oil is usually not sold at a fixed price when purchased.  It is often sold at a reference price using a futures price at delivery.
  Gasoline futures prices are watched closely by distributors.
  Heating oil distributors make widespread use of future contracts.
  Natural gas futures started in April 1990 and grew rapidly.
  Electricity futures and options started in 1996 -- their possible effects on markets during deregulation are not yet known.

Source:  New York Mercantile Exchange.

## Natural Gas Regulations

## Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 

- Objective:
- Restructured natural gas pipeline regulations
- Status:
- Largely repealed in 1989.

## Impact

- The NGPA was designed to gradually raise the price of most categories of natural gas to a Btu-parity with oil by 1985, with certain categories of high-cost gas immediately deregulated in order to stimulate exploration and production. Assumptions of a close link between oil and gas prices and strict interpretation of the provisions of the NGPA also led to very high estimates for the price of gas, particularly for 1990 and 1995.  By 1983, with gas consumption falling, some contracts written with very high prices for natural gas were no longer being upheld, it became apparent that such prices would not be sustained.  With the recognition of the role of gas in a competitive market environment fostered by the repeal of the NGPA and regulatory change, price projections have consistently declined over the last decade.

## Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978 

- Objective:
- Required that electric utilities and industrial natural gas users phase out the use of natural gas in large boilers.
- Status:
- Repealed.

## Impact

- At the outset the authors expected a massive switch from natural gas to coal (some projections implied that U.S. production would increase to 2 billion tons a year by 1990).
- Immediately waivers were granted when it became apparent that natural gas supplies were more than adequate.

## Natural Gas Wellhead Decontrol Act of 1989 

- Repealed the 1978 Act.

## Impact

- An entirely new contracting structure has developed for purchases of the commodity and also for services. Long term contracts instead of being 20 years long are now 1 year long.
- Gas production has shown a long-term increase, rising from 16.1 Tcf in 1986 to an estimated 19.0 Tcf in1998.
- Pipeline deliverability has increased sharply. At least 17 new interstate pipeline systems have been constructed since 1990,

## Impact (continued)

- Imports have taken a greater role in meeting supply. They supplied 4 to 5 percent of U.S. natural gas consumption in the early 1980s but provided about 14 percent in 1998.
- Price volatility has become a significant characteristic of the market, and financial markets have developed to facilitate the trade of natural gas and the hedging of prices.

## Natural Gas Price Projections

## Natural Gas Production Projections

## U. S. Natural Gas Prices

**Notes:**
  In an era of regulation and scarcity the inflation-adjusted natural gas wellhead prices increased  about 187 percent by 1997, from $0.57 to $2.15.
  In 1954 the Federal Power Commission (now the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission)  set controls on  wellhead prices for gas intended for interstate transmission to consumers.
  Beginning in 1980,  interstate transmission of  new gas (not under existing long-term contract) was decontrolled while interstate transmission  of  old gas (under existing long-term contracts) remained controlled.  All gas was decontrolled in 1993. 
  Once the marginal supply of interstate transmission of gas was decontrolled, the average wellhead price of  new gas  rose, prompting a boom in gas exploration and development.
  Average wellhead prices peaked in the early 1980’s as more gas entered the market.  Gas prices are now strongly seasonal, increasing in winter and falling in summer.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA- 0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 6.8.

## U. S. Natural Gas Reserves

**Notes:**
  Since 1972, economic conditions and technological capability have varied dramatically. Natural gas reserve estimates have varied because improved technology has increased finding rates. As for crude oil, natural gas now can be economically produced in the United States from more marginal fields than was the case in 1972.
  In 1972 the American Gas Association (AGA) estimates of natural gas reserves were 266 trillion cubic feet.
  In 1996 EIA’s estimates of natural gas reserves were 166.5 trillion cubic feet.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 4.10.
Note(s):  Prior to 1977: A technical committee sponsored by AGA assembled these data.  Beginning in 1977: EIA was solely responsible for assembling the natural gas reserves data.  Natural gas reserves:  The estimated quantities that can be recoverable with reasonable certainty in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.

## Percent of U. S. New Homes Built with Natural Gas Heat

**Notes:**
  The percent of new homes built with gas heat increased at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent during the past 25 years.
  A sharp drop in newly built gas-heated homes occurred following the oil embargo—from a pre-embargo level of 54 percent to a 1978 level of 37 percent.
  Concerns about the dependable availability of natural gas in the 1970’s led to restrictions on the use of natural gas in new homes.  Restrictions were in place in the northern region of the country until the late 1980’s.  
  Increases in nominal natural gas prices accelerated after the embargo, reaching a plateau in 1983.  Although the natural gas prices (in nominal terms) remained fairly constant after 1983, in real terms they declined. 
  New gas hookups increased with the 1985 decontrol of wellhead prices and the expansion of natural gas imports.
  Currently, two-thirds of new homes are built with natural gas heat.

Source:  U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,  Characteristics of New Housing: 1995, (Washington, DC, October 1996).

## Electricity Regulations

## The Electric Utility Industry

- More than 3,000 electric utilities in the United States provide electricity to sustain the Nation's economic growth and promote the well-being of its inhabitants. At the end of 1996, the net generating capability of the electric power industry stood at more than 776,000 megawatts. Sales to ultimate consumers in 1996 exceeded 3.1 trillion kilowatt-hours at a total cost of more than $210 billion. In addition, the industry added over 9 million new customers during the period from 1990 through 1996.

## Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 

- Objective:
- Provided incentives for nonutility power producers.
- Status:
- Major revisions made.

## Impact

- Non-utility generation has grown steadily.
- Up until recently the electric utility industry has remained highly regulated due to perceptions that it was a “natural monopoly”
- Regulatory changes are moving to the unbundling  of generation and distribution services.

## Electricity Generation Projections

## Coal Fired Generation Projections

## U. S. Retail Price of Electricity

**Notes:**
  The nominal price (not inflation-adjusted) of electricity has risen at an average annual  rate of 5.3 percent during the past 25 years.  In contrast, the real price (inflation-adjusted) rose at a rate of 0.3 percent.
  Electricity prices (real cents per kilowatt-hour) have followed two broad trends: (1) growth throughout the 1970’s and into the early 1980’s; and  (2) a decline ( real dollars) since about 1982.  Increased competition in the electric power industry has created downward pressures on prices.
  The retail price of electricity, in real terms, rose 53 percent from a low 5.7 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh)  in 1972 to 8.7 cents per kWh in 1982. Also, during that period the nominal price rose even more dramatically, 1.9 to 6.1 cents per kWh, a staggering 220 percent,  tripling the price.
  A rise in fossil fuel prices between 1972 and 1982 strongly influenced the price of electricity.
  The nominal price continued to rise after 1982, but at a much more gradual rate. Meanwhile the real price showed a steady decline of about 30 percent by 1996.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 8.13.

## Share of U.S. Net Electric Utility Generation by Energy Source

**Share of U.S. Net Electric Utility Generation by Energy Source**

**Share **

**56.8%**

**20%**

**11%**

**9.5%**

**2.4%**

**45.6%**

**18.3%**

**14.6%**

**4.5%**

**0.2%**

**16.9%**

**0.1%**

**Notes:**
  Electric Utilities used petroleum for 17 percent of electric generation in 1973. During the 1973 oil embargo petroleum prices soared while its availability was labeled as questionable, thus began a long-term decline in the use of petroleum as a fuel for electric generation.
  Petroleum-fired electric plants produced only 2 percent of electric generation in 1997 -- due to increased use of nuclear, gas-fired and coal-fired electric generation.
  A rapid growth of nuclear electricity generation was slowed by the 1979 accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant.  No new orders for nuclear reactors were made after 1978.
  Electric utility generation by nuclear reactors  has improved significantly.  The national capacity factor—below 65 percent in the 1970’s and 1980’s—has surpassed 70 percent since 1991, achieving 76 percent in 1996.

Source: Nuclear portion of domestic electricity: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 8.3;  Reactor performance:  Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98),  (Washington, DC—December 1997), p 54;  Form EIA-759, “Monthly Power Plant Report.”

## Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990

- Objective:
- Increased pollution abatement requirements of electric utilities and large energy users
- Status:
- Under review some states have additional requirements

## Impact 

- Air quality has steadily been improving.
- Additional amendments are likely as most Americans are interested in further improvements.
- CARB gasoline in California, low sulphur diesel etc.

## U. S. Air Pollution

**Notes:**
  Total emissions for all criteria pollutants shown, except Nitrogen Oxides, have declined even though vehicle miles traveled and gross domestic product have increased. (pollutants shown include carbon monoxide, organic compounds, sulfur dioxide and particulate matter)
  Total emissions declined substantially on a per-capita basis, from about 1.2 pounds per person in 1972 to 0.68 in 1996.  The decreases are attributable to the Clean Air Act regulations which began in 1970 and continued into the 1990’s.  Changes in the business cycle and improved manufacturing practices also have played a role in the decline.
  Lead emissions (too small to report in the graph) declined from an  estimated 221 thousand short tons in 1970 to 3.9 thousand tons in 1996, largely due to the removal of lead from gasoline.

Source:  Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, National Air Pollutant Emission Trends Report: 1900 - 1996, EPA-454/R-97-011, (Washington, DC, December 1997), Appendix A.
Note:  Particulate emissions including fugitive dust consist of particles less then 10 microns in diameter (PM-10).

## U.S. Carbon Emissions

**Notes:**
  Carbon emissions in the United States have risen at an average annual rate of 0.8 percent during the past 25 years.
  U.S. carbon emissions are the product of : (1) demand for energy services; (2) end-use energy efficiency; (3) energy transformation efficiency; and (4)  the choice of fuels used.
  The use of energy services has tended to track the growth of the U.S. economy.  But, emissions have grown much more slowly than the U.S. economy or even energy consumption, because of the increases in energy efficiency and large-scale fuel switching.
  Periods of declining emissions have tended to coincide with periods of prolonged higher energy prices.
  In the 1990’s, with real energy prices at lower levels than previous decades and further fuel switching of marginal importance, energy consumption and emissions track economic growth much more closely than in the preceding two decades.
  The carbon emissions range between 5 and 6 metric tons per person per year.

Source:  For 1990 - 1997, Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouses Gases in the United States 1997, DOE/EIA-0573(97). (Washington, DC, report in preparation).  For other years, EIA estimates based on unpublished analysis.

## U. S. Carbon Emissions by Sector

**Notes:**
  The average annual rates of carbon dioxide emissions varied by sector during the past 25 years --  Residential, 0.7 percent; Commercial, 1.6 percent; Industrial, -0.04 percent; Transportation, 1.4 percent.
  Carbon dioxide emissions grew in all sectors during the past decade.
  Carbon dioxide emissions in the Industrial sector are still lower than they were in the 1970’s.  This is partly due to a shift in the structure of the U.S. industry from energy-intensive basic industries (steel and chemicals), towards more complex and less raw material-intensive products --  a shift that can be partly due to fuel switching and increasing energy efficiency.
  Carbon dioxide emissions in the Transportation sector were stabilized in the early 1980’s by the increasing fuel efficiency of post-1980 model cars.  However, as vehicle fuel efficiency gains have diminished, transportation emissions have resumed their growth.

Source:  For 1990-1997, Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouses Gases in the United States 1997, DOE/EIA-0573(97). (Washington, DC, report in preparation).  For other years, EIA estimates based on unpublished analysis.

## Energy Policy Act of 1992

- Objective:
- Appliance energy efficiency standards
- Voluntary reporting of greenhouse gas emissions
- Status:
- In force

## Efficiency of an Average New Refrigerator in the United States

**Notes:**
  The efficiency of an average new refrigerator increased dramatically, from 3.84 cubic feet per kilowatt-hour per day in 1972 to 11.22  cubic feet per kilowatt-hour by 1996.
  New technology, increasing price of electricity, and anticipated energy efficiency standards contributed to increased efficiency in new refrigerators.
  The National Appliance Energy Conservation Act of 1987 set minimum efficiency standards for 13 product types, including refrigerators.  After 1993, no refrigerator could be sold that did not meet the standards.  Standards will be updated again in 2002.

Source:  Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers, Refrigerators Energy Efficiency and Consumption Trends, July 14, 1997.
Note(s):  The efficiency of a refrigerator is expressed in “volume cooled per unit electric energy per day.”  Volume is measured in cubic feet and electrical energy is measured in kilowatt-hours.  Increased efficiency compensates for the increasing size of refrigerators.  Average efficiency is the sales-weighted average over all models sold in the United States.

## Energy Information Legislation (part 1)

- Federal Energy Administration Act of 1974
- Collection and analysis of energy information
- Treatment of confidential data
- Coordination with States on energy shortages
- Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of 1974
- Additional collection authority and reporting requirements

## Energy Information Legislation (part 2)

- Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975
- International Energy Program
- Data on pricing, supply and distribution of petroleum products
- Standard reporting requirements by oil and gas producers
- Energy Conservation and Production Act of 1976
- Data on exports of coal and petroleum products
- Project Independence Evaluation System
- National Energy Information System

## Energy Information Legislation (part 3)

- Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977
- Established the Energy Information Administration
- Requires reporting to FERC
- Track foreign company activities in U.S. energy
- Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978
- Annual assessment of coal reserves and coal production capacity
- Removed time limits on all EIA data collection authority

## Energy Information Legislation (part 4)

- Energy Emergency Preparedness Act of 1982
- Data on pricing, supply and distribution of petroleum products at wholesale and retail levels on a state-by-state basis.
- Nuclear Regulatory Commission Authorization Act of 1983
- Review of domestic uranium mining and milling industry
- Annual viability assessment of domestic uranium industry

## Energy Information Legislation (part 5)

- Energy Policy and Conservation Amendments Act of 1985
- Data and analysis of United States coal imports
- Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1986
- Data on manufacturers energy consumption
- Analysis of domestic crude oil production and refining capacity

## Energy Information Legislation (part 6)

- Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Use Act Amendments of 1987
- Repealed need for annual summary of coal reserves
- Energy Policy Act 0f 1992
- Data on renewable energy sources used to generate electricity
- Data on alternative transportation fuels and vehicles
- Data on uranium imports and enrichment
- Data on energy transportation rates
- Data on greenhouse gas emissions

## Summary

## U. S. Total Energy Consumption

**Notes:**
  From 1972 to 1997 energy consumption increased by 20 quadrillion Btu—to 94.2 quadrillion Btu—a compound growth rate of  about 1.0 percent.
  The reductions in growth rate correspond to the 1974/75 and 1981/82 changes in economic growth.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Table 1.3.
Note:  Data include an estimate of 3 quadrillion Btu for nonutility renewables prior to 1990.

## U. S. Per Capita Use of Energy

**Notes:**
  The per capita use of energy has declined 0.8 percent over the last 25 years. 
  The per capita use of energy decreased for 2 years immediately following the OPEC embargo.  
  In 1978, the per capita use of energy peaked at 365 million Btu—a level not since repeated.
  Although  the population rose 5.5 percent from 1978 to 1983, the energy use per person dropped 14 percent.
  The start of the decline in consumption of energy coincided with the onset and aftereffects of a second oil price increase.
  From 1983 to present, the energy use per person increased at a steady low rate of 0.8 percent per year.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Tables 1.3 and 1.5.
Note:  The total energy consumed shown in table 1.3 was increased by 3 quadrillion Btu for renewable energy not previously included for the years 1972 - 1989.

## Share of  U. S. World Energy Consumption

**Notes:**
  Comparing World energy consumption with the United States consumption is difficult, because the statistics are more complete for the United States than for the rest of the world.
  U.S. consumption fell from approximately 31 percent of World energy consumption in 1972  to 25 percent in 1996.
  The share of U.S. consumption stabilized because the growth in the developing world energy consumption de-emphasized growth in U.S. energy consumption.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 1996, DOE/EIA-0219(96). (Washington, DC, February 1998), Table E1.
Note(s):  There is a discontinuity in the time series between 1989 and 1990.  In the United States, expanded coverage of nonutility use of renewable energy began in 1990.  Independent power producers’ use of coal was included in U.S. consumption beginning in 1992 -- the changes are too small to show.

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP

**Notes:**
  Energy consumption per dollar of GDP has declined at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent during the past 25 years.
  In 1972, the energy consumed per dollar of GDP was 20.1 million Btu.   From that high point a steady decline began and lasted through 1986.  After 1986 the decline in energy consumption per dollar of GDP slowed significantly.
  The steady decline through 1986 is a reflection of the emphasis placed on conserving energy, and of  increasing energy efficiency in virtually all areas of energy consumption.  Although oil prices began dropping in the early 1980’s, the efficiency gains were by and large here to stay.   

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Tables 1.3 and 1.5.
Note 1:  The total energy consumed shown in table 1.3 was increased by 3 quadrillion Btu for renewable energy not previously included for the years 1972 - 1989.
Note 2: Energy consumption per dollar  of GDP is a measure of energy intensity.  Energy Intensity is the ratio of the amount of energy consumed to an indicator of the amount of goods produced or services provided.

## Share of U. S. Renewable Energy Consumption

**Notes:**
  Renewable energy was approximately 8.4 percent of  U.S. total consumption in 1972.  It declined slightly to 7.6 percent in 1997.
  Renewable energy comes from hydroelectric power, geothermal, biofuels, solar and wind-generated energy.

Source:  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97). (Washington, DC, July 1998), Tables 1.3 and 10.2.

## Petroleum

- There is now a largely free market in the petroleum sector.  Part of the price for this market has been a higher volatility in consumer prices.
- Remaining regulatory issues concern local and national fuel quality regulations and the potential for additional regulations due to Kyoto (or some other) accord.

## Natural Gas Deregulation – Now up to the States – Status of State Deregulation Efforts

## Electricity Deregulation – Now up to the States – Status of State Deregulation Efforts

## The Washington Post Said in 1995

- “There were two oil crises in the 1970s, both of which pitched the country into severe recessions that cost millions of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars in lost production and income.  In the first, there were few oil and energy statistics to guide decisions.  In the second, there were plenty of statistics, but they turned out to be unreliable.  In both cases, amid great clouds of confusion, the federal government made serious mistakes based on bad information that made the ensuing recessions worse than they needed to be....The Energy Information Administration has spent years of effort and substantial investment of money getting the numbers right.”

## Conclusion

- Deregulation, started in the early 1970’s seems to achieved many of its objectives consumers have enjoyed lower real prices and increased supplies of energy.
- With deregulation has come more price volatility in some markets.

## Conclusion (continued)

- Environmental externalities may be the motivation of future changes in regulations.
- Clearly energy retains a major focal point in U.S. geopolitical interests and this could increase in the future as other regions compete for energy resources.