# Presentation: 102182

## Winter Weather Programmatic Plans 

***WDTB Winter Weather Workshop #4***
***July 22, 2003***
**Mark Tew**
**National Winter Weather Program Leader**
** ****OCWWS -  Fire and Public Weather Services Branch**

## Outline

**Winter Weather Directives **
**Planned Policy Changes**
**Winter Weather Experiment Expansion**
**Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) Implementation**
**Automated National Winter Weather Verification Program**

## NWS Directives System

**NWS changed from WSOM to the Directives System on October 1, 2002****	**
**Directives Vision:**
***NWS policy development is efficient and effective***
***NWS policies are easily understood and accessed***
**Directives System basic building blocks:**
***Policy Directives***
***Procedural Directives: Annual Review Cycle***
**Supplements**

**Notes:**
We have recently completed the infrastructure changes associated with NWS restructuring changes.
In 1990, when the modernization plans were being completed, this is what was going on in our country:
George Bush was President....that is, George Herbert Walker Bush, the 41st President of the U.S...not “W”
In May 1990, Microsoft introduced Windows 3.0
In 1990, the first 486-based machines hit the market:  for about $6k, you could get a processor running at 25 MegaHertz, with 4 MegaBytes of RAM and 150 MegaBytes of hard drive, floppy drives (5-1/4inch plus 3-1/2inch...whoopie!) plus clunky monitor (price in todays dollars, about $8k).  
By comparison today, this week’s “deal of the week” on Gateway’s homepage gives you for $999, 2.0 GigaHertz processor, 256 MegaBytes of RAM, 40 GigaBytes of hard drive, readable/writeable CDROM burner, and flat screen monitor)
Dances with Wolves won the Oscar for Best Picture
Peter Falk won the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series for his role in “Columbo”
Mariah Carey won the Grammy for Best New Artist
The average annual retail gasoline price per gallon was driving up to about $1.11 from its price in 1989 of about $0.95 (it hasn’t been below a dollar since then!)
The LFM was still running operationally, with its development frozen in 1986.
The Eta model did not appear operationally until 1993.
NCSA did not even introduce version 1.0 of Mosaic as an internet browser until 1993, when we were well on our way to modernization.
THINGS HAVE CHANGED SINCE THE EARLY PLANNING OF MODERNIZATION!!
Simultaneously, we have witnessed significant advances in weather technologies
Computer power has improved from giga- to tera- with peta-flop capabilities on the horizon
Dissemination of products, collaborative techniques, and improvements to broadband communications via internet technology are revolutionizing the way we do business today and into the future
Numerical Weather Prediction modeling capability has changed from greater than 80km to 12km today, with 4km in the near future
The computing power increases allow for better physics within the models, and research continues to advance the state of forecasting knowledge

## Winter Weather Directives

**Policy Directive 10-5, ***Public Weather Services*
- Defines the mission critical, high level public weather warning policy
**NWS Instruction 10-513, ***WFO Winter Weather Products Specification *
- Describes winter weather products issued by WFOs
**NWS Instruction 10-514, ***National Winter Weather Products Specification*
- Describes winter weather products issued by HPC
**Directives Web Page:*** http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/*

## Instruction 10-513: Issuance Criteria Defined

**Winter Storm Outlook (SPS or HWO):  **
_***>***_*** 30% chance of a hazardous winter weather event ***_***exceeding***_*** local warning criteria in the next ******3-to-7****** days***
**Winter Storm Watch:**
_***>***_*** 50% chance of a hazardous winter weather event meeting or exceeding local warning criteria in the next 12 to 48 hours***
**Winter Weather Warning and Advisories:**
_***>***_*** 80% chance of a hazardous winter weather event meeting or exceeding local warning criteria in the next 36 hours***

## Catalog of Event SpecificProducts

**Winter Weather Warnings**
***Blizzard Warning***
***Heavy Snow Warning***
***Ice Storm Warning***
***Heavy Sleet Warning***
***Lake Effect Snow Warning***
***Winter Storm Warning***
***Wind Chill Warning – ******NEW***

**Winter Weather Advisories**
***Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory***
***Snow Advisory***
***Freezing Rain Advisory***
***Sleet Advisory***
***Lake Effect Snow Advisory***
***Winter Weather Advisory***
***Wind Chill Advisory – ******NEW***
***Blowing Snow Advisory -****** NEW***

## Winter Weather Information Survey Results 

**NWS is striving to be more customer driven**
**Two Customer Satisfaction Index Surveys Contained Winter Weather Information**
***Emergency Managers (387 Responses)***
***Broadcast Meteorologists (500+ Responses)***
**Rated the Usefulness of Winter Weather Information on a 1 to 10 scale**
***1 = Not at All Useful***
***10 = Very Useful***

## Emergency Managers Ratings:  

**Winter Weather Information**

**N = 387**

## Media Ratings: Winter Weather Information

**Specific Warnings: 8.6**
**Specific Advisories: 8.4**
**Time of Precipitation Type Change: 8.4**
**Effect of High Winds: 8.3**
**Time of day of snow begins/ends: 8.2**
**Snowfall Rate: 8.1**
**Running total of accumulating snow: 8.0**
**Snow accumulation in each 12 hours: 7.8**

## Customer Survey Conclusions

**Event Specific Winter Weather Warnings and Advisories very useful to customers (Media & EMs)**
***Mandatory in Current Policy ***
***VTEC will better support automated dissimination***
***Plans for new internal performance measures ***
**Timing of Winter Weather Events very useful to customers**
***Specific event start and end times included in VTEC ***
**High End Users**
***Specific event start and end times included in Headline***
**Low End Users**

## Winter Storm Warning Issuance Criteria

**Winter weather event having:**
***more than one predominant hazard ***
**Snow and sleet**
**Sleet and ice**
**Snow, sleet and ice**
**Heavy snow and blowing snow**** **
***at least one of the precipitation elements meets or exceeds locally defined 12 and/or 24 hour warning criteria ***

## Winter Storm Warning vs. Heavy Snow Warning

**Winter Storm Warning issued for near blizzard conditions:**
***Snow accumulation meeting or exceeding locally defined 12 and/or 24 hour Heavy Snow Warning criteria***
***Sustained wind or frequent gusts of 25 to 34 mph (can be locally defined) accompanied by considerable falling and blowing snow, ***_***occasionally***_*** reducing visibility to 1⁄4 mile or less for three hours or more***
**Heavy Snow Warning issued:**
***Snow accumulation meeting or exceeding locally defined 12 and/or 24 hour Heavy Snow Warning criteria***
***Sustained wind or frequent gusts < 25 mph   ***

## Minimum Forecast Snowfall Criteria

**Issuance criteria based on the average value of the forecast snowfall range and not high endpoints**

| Heavy Snow Warning Criteria (Inches) | Forecast Range (Inches) | Average (Inches) | Issue Warning? |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4
 | 3 to 5 | 4 | Yes |
|  | 2 to 4 | 3 | No |
| 8 | 5 to 10 | 7.5 | Yes (round to 8) |
|  | 4 to 8 | 6 | No |

## Planned Policy Changes

**NWS Attribution Line for Long Duration Warnings/Advisories (WSW/NPW)**
**THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN [WFO NAME or LOCATION] HAS ISSUED A **(*HEAVY SNOW/ICE STORM/HEAVY SLEET/WIND CHILL/WINTER STORM*) **WARNING**
***Mandatory for initial issuance, Optional for updates***
***Consistent with Severe Weather Warning products***
**Standardized Headlines with specific times for Warnings/Advisories**
**...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EST MONDAY... **
*** *****...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST THIS EVENING...**
**SPS and HWO in Segmented Format**

## Winter Weather Experiment III 2003-2004

**WWE Goal: Improve winter weather products and services provided to the public**
***Evaluate HPC’s role in facilitating a collaborative set of guidance products***
***Evaluate the performance of EMC’s  SREF during winter events ***
**Coordinated by OCWWS, NCEP, Regional Headquarters**
**HPC is striving to be the coordination leader or National Center for Winter Storms (e.g., SPC, TPC)**

## WWE III Plans – Continued

**All four CONUS Regions will work with HPC to test and evaluate the concept this winter**
**Increase from 31 to 48 or 69 WFOs  **
**HPC will provide graphical products**
***Surface, 700 mb and 500 mb low tracks***
***Accumulations of Snow and Ice ***
**East of Continental Divide**
**Does not include mesoscale snow events (e.g., Lake Effect Snow, terrain)   **

## Slide 17

## Valid Time Event Code

**VTEC is a code which describes the content of watches/warnings/advisories (what/when)**
** ****The VTEC code applies to all geographic areas denoted by the Universal Geographic Code in the message or message segment**
** ****VTEC permits selective dissemination, reception and display of NWS text products**

## VTEC Format

**aaa - Action Element**
**cccc - Office ID**
**pp - Phenomena**
**s - Significance**
**#### - Event Tracking Number**
**yymmdd - Year, Month and Day**
**ThhnnZ - Hour and Minute in Zulu time**
** ****T” & “Z” - non-numeric characters (FIPS/ANSI)**

**/aaa.cccc.pp.s.####.yymmd****b****d****b****ThhnnZ-yymmd****e****d****e****ThhnnZ**

## Action Code (aaa)

**New (NEW)**
**Continued (CON)**
**Canceled (CAN)**
**Correction (COR)**
**Test (TES)**

**Extended In Time (EXT)**
**Extended in Area (EXA)**
**Extended in Time and Area (EXB)**
**Upgrade (UPG)**

**/****aaa****.cccc.pp.s.####.yymmd****b****d****b****ThhnnZ-yymmd****e****d****e****ThhnnZ**

## Issuing Office ID (cccc)

**Four letter ID of issuing office **
***KRLX for Charleston, WV***
***KLWX for Sterling, VA***

**/aaa.****cccc****.pp.s.####.yymmd****b****d****b****ThhnnZ-yymmd****e****d****e****ThhnnZ**

## Phenomena Code (pp) 

**/aaa.cccc.****pp****.s.####.yymmd****b****d****b****ThhnnZ-yymmd****e****d****e****ThhnnZ**

**Blizzard (BZ) **
**Heavy Snow (HS) **
**Freezing Rain (ZR)**
**Snow (SN) **
**Lake Effect Snow (LE)**
**Sleet (IP)**

**Tornado (TO)**
**Heat (HT)**
**Fog (FG)**
**Freeze (FZ)**
**Flood (FL)**
**High Wind (HW) **

## Significance Element  (S)

**Warning (W)**
**Watch (A)**
**Advisory (Y)**
**Forecast (F)**

**/aaa.cccc.pp.****s****.####.yymmd****b****d****b****ThhnnZ-yymmd****e****d****e****ThhnnZ**

## Event Tracking Number (####)

**Indicates which watch, warning, advisory is being issued, continued, extended **
**Each watch/warning/advisory counted separately**
**ETN remains the same until event expires or is canceled**
**Easy to follow the event from message to message**
**Follow up statements (SVS, FFS, MWS)**
***Contains the same ETN of the original Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm/Flash Flood/Special Maring Warning***

**/aaa.cccc.pp.s.****####****.yymmd****b****d****b****ThhnnZ-yymmd****e****d****e****ThhnnZ**

## Event Beginning, Ending Times

**Identifies the valid time period of the event in UTC**
**Event Beginning Time**
***Indicates when the Event will become effective***
***After Event begins: 000000T0000Z***
**Event Ending Time**
***Indicates when the Event will no longer be in effect***
***Differs from the UGC product expiration time for long duration watches/warnings/advisories***

**/aaa.cccc.pp.s.####.****yymmd****b****d****b****ThhnnZ-yymmd****e****d****e****ThhnnZ**

## VTEC Examples

**WFO Great Falls, MT issued a new Blizzard Warning **
**Valid from 1200 UTC on the Dec 2, 2001 to 1600 UTC on Dec 3, 2001.  **
**This is the third blizzard warning Great Falls issued this calendar year.**

**/NEW.KGTF.BZ.W.0003.011202T1200Z-011203T1600Z/**

## UpgradingLong Duration Products

**Upgrade Watch to Warning - Two VTEC Lines**
***First VTEC line - UPG Action Code***
**Used to show the old Watch has been upgraded**
***Second VTEC line - NEW Action Code***
**Used to start new Warning or Advisory**
**Winter Storm Watch to Ice Storm Warning**
***/UPG.KOKC.WS.A.0004.010128T0500Z-010129T0000Z/***
***/NEW.KOKC.IS.W.0003.010128T0500Z-010129T0000Z/***

***WSW, NPW, Fire Weather Products***

## Downgrading WSW & NPWLong Duration Products

**Downgrade Warning to Advisory -Two VTEC Lines**
***First VTEC line - CAN Action Code***
**Used to show the warning has been cancelled**
***Second VTEC line - NEW Action Code***
**Used to start new advisory**
**Downgrade Ice Storm Warning to Freezing Rain Advisory**
***/CAN.KOKC.IS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-010129T0000Z/***
***/NEW.KOKC.ZR.Y.0003.010128T1000Z-010129T0000Z/***

## Replacing WSW & NPWLong Duration Products

**Replacing Warning with Warning -Two VTEC Lines**
***First VTEC line - CAN Action Code***
**Used to show the warning has been cancelled**
***Second VTEC line - NEW Action Code***
**Used to start new warning**
**Replace Ice Storm Warning with Winter Storm Warning**
***/CAN.KOKC.IS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-010129T0000Z/***
***/NEW.KOKC.WS.W.0005.010128T100Z-010129T0000Z/***

## VTEC Requirements Timeline

**1998 - VTEC Developed for Public Products**
**1999 - Hydrologic Products Included**
**2001 - VTEC String Expanded (Year & Month)**
**2001/2002 - Usage Problems Identified**
***No “capture text” functionality for follow-up long duration products***
***False increments of the Event Tracking Number******	***
***VTEC support for severe weather statements/flash flood statements not operational***
***Automated warning upgrade/downgrade not operational***

## VTEC Target Implementation

**AWIPS OB2 **
***Full Deployment - late October***
***VTEC Implementation – Turn on: December 2, 2003? ***
***Upgrade/Downgrade not fully functional - OB3***
**Text Products with VTEC   **
***Severe Weather Products (TOR, SVR, SVS, WCN)***
***Winter and Non-Precipitation Products (WSW, NPW)***
***Hydrologic products (FFA, FFW, FFS, FLW, FLS)***
***Marine Products (SMW, CFW, CWF, etc.)***
***Fire Weather products (RFW)***

## VTEC Information and Detailed Examples

**http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/vtec**
**This site provides two VTEC documents**
***Draft NWSI 10-1703: contains all the details of the VTEC code with some examples and interpretations***
***VTEC Implementation Plan: lists the NWS products containing VTEC and includes detailed examples***

## National Winter Weather Warning Verification Plan

**Two Winter Weather Verification Methods This Winter**
**Standard WFO Submission to Regional Hqtrs**
***Last Winter Season***
**Stats on Demand Winter Weather Watch/Warning Verification page**
***Start After VTEC Implementation – Dec 2003***
***Utilize VTEC String from WSW/NPW products***
***Storm Data Event Log***

## Types of Watches and WarningsVerified

**Winter Weather **
**Event specific Watches and Warnings**
***Five Warnings***
***One Watch (Blizzard Watch)***
**Generic watches and warnings**
**High Wind (Watches and Warnings)**

## Event Specific and Generic Warning Verification 

| Warning Issued | Event Specific Verification | Generic Verification |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Heavy snow | Heavy snow | Heavy snow, 
Heavy sleet,
Ice storm,
Blizzard,
Winter storm |
| Heavy sleet | Heavy sleet |  |
| Ice storm | Ice storm |  |
| Blizzard | Blizzard |  |
| Winter Storm | Winter Storm |  |

## Overall Warning Rules(also apply to watches)

**Warnings/events---separate databases**
**Only one event allowed per zone**
**Each Warning**
**Verified**
**Unverified (false alarm)**
**Each Event **
**Warned**
**Unwarned**
**Avg. Lead Time computed from event log in Storm Data**

## The End

**Questions or Comments?**