# Presentation: 930148

## Houston Advanced Research Center

**Houston Advanced Research Center**

**Robert Harriss**
**rharriss@harc.edu**

## 21st Century: the beginning of a New Era

**%**

- Challenge: TO DIVERSIFY ENERGY SOURCES**Up to 2030, the world demand for energy should increase 58%.**

- Sources: Nakícenovic, Grübler and MaConald, 1998   and US  Energy Information Administration

## Biofuels: a polarized issue 

***“******It is a crime against humanity****** to convert agricultural productive soil into soil producing foodstuff which will be burned into biofuel******.******”***
-    - Jean Ziegler, UN Special Rapporteur for the Right to Food, Press briefing, October 26, 2007.
***”******The real crime against humanity****** is to discredit biofuels a priori and condemn food-starved and energy-starved countries ******t******o dependence and insecurity.”**** *
*  ***-** Brazilian president** **Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, FAO Regional Conference for Latin America and the Caribbean (LARC) 30th Session in Brasilia, April 17, 2008
***"OPEC has nothing to fear. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, ******the contribution from biofuels would be very small******."***
- - Claude Mandil, IEA Executive Director (Financial Times, 08 June 2007)

## Trends in Biofuels Production Capacity

**North America**
**Current: 2337 mg**
**Future: 7232 mg**

**Latin America**
**Current: 327 mg**
**Future: 1659 mg**

**Brazil**
**Current: 271 mg**
**Future: 1043 mg**

**Europe**
**Current: 3590 mg**
**Future: 7981 mg**

**Asia**
**Current: 2884 mg**
**Future: 13207 mg**

**Africa**
**Current: **
**pilot projects**

**Current: **Q1 2008
**Future: **Maximum possible capacity if all proposed plants are built by 2012

**Unit of Measure: **million gallons
- Source: Hart Energy Consulting

**Notes:**
North America: The U.S. is again the major producer in North America. Although, production has fallen way below production capacity show here in the picture. In 2007, the U.S. produced only 450 million gallons, showing a utilization rate of about 20%. The potential for biodiesel production capacity is great with 193 existing plants, 96 plants under construction and 160 plants are proposed.

Latin America: Production of biodiesel in Latin America is small compared to other regions, with 41 existing plants. But in the future, 7 plants under construction and 37 plants are proposed.

Brazil: has 44 existing plants, 17 plants under construction and 32 plants are proposed

Europe: 203 existing plants, 37 plants under construction, and 96 plants are proposed

Asia: rivals the U.S. in production capacity with 226 existing plants however their actual production has fallen for the same reasons of high feedstock cost. There is significant potential for future production capacity with 62 under construction, and 274 are proposed.

Africa: Biofuels are attractive to many African countries who want to improve farmers’ income and provide fuel to isolated communities as biofuels can be produced locally.

## Agrofuel Feedstocks

**North America**
- E: Corn, barley, wheat
- B: Soy, rapeseed, waste oil

**Europe**
- E: Sugarbeets, wheat
- B: Rapeseed, waste oil

**Latin America**
**/Caribbean**
- E: Sugarcane, corn
- B: Soy, palm

**Africa**
- E: Sugarcane
- B: palm, jatropha

**Prime Feedstock Growing Area**

**Asia**
- E: Sugarcane, corn
- B: Palm, jatropha, waste oil, coconut, tallow

- E = Ethanol
- B = Biodiesel

**Notes:**
GET FEEDSTOCK DATA FROM DATABASE
There are more than 100 feedstocks currently in use or under development for biofuels production. Here are some major feedstocks for ethanol and biodiesel by region. 

The cheap(er) feedstocks are mostly grown in developing countries. These countries are also often the low cost producers of biofuels. 
Still, the high cost of some feedstocks, like soy and palm, may make money for feedstock producers but not necessarily for use in biofuels. 

## Global Market of Palm Oil

## Conversion of forests into palm plantations in Papua, Indonesia

- Conversion of forests into palm plantations in Papua, Indonesia

-  1990: a new human presence, earth colored roads provide access to the forest

-  2000: rectilinear patterns cover 10,000 ha

-  2002: Cleared area nearly doubles since 2000

**Notes:**
Indonesia is the second largest producer of palm oil in the world, after Malaysia.
The drive to meet the demand for palm oil is resulting in conversion of forested areas into palm oil plantations. These three satellite images reveal how a combination of transmigration, logging interests, and palm oil plantation development have transformed an area that was previously tropical lowland rain and swamp forest.  While the 1990 image shows the first signs of development in this region, with the jagged access road network forming the only break in the forest cover, the October 2000 image reveals an area being prepared for palm oil plantations, and evidence of an influx of plantation workers. The 2002 image clearly shows a checkered pattern of plantations in the primary development area, and the extension of the road network to the north, south, and southwest.

## Peatland drainage in Riau Province,Indonesia 

**Peatland drainage in Riau Province,Indonesia**** **

**Notes:**
Peat swamp forest drainage canals used to transport timber on small barges in Riau Province, Sumatra © WWF Indonesia.

## Peat Fires in Plantations

**Riau province, Sumatera - 24****th**** Jan 2005**

**PKPS , Batang Berjuntai - 2002**

**South Selangor - 1997**

## South East Asia - Local Impacts

## The Asian Haze

## Indonesian Deforestation, 2000 - 2005

**Indonesian Deforestation, 2000 - 2005**

**Forest loss minus spread of palm and other crops leaves a difference, not surprising for a timber-producing nation.**

- Palm + other crops spread 0.6 M ha/year

-  M ha/year

- Source: FAO, 2008

-  M ha/year

## Political and policy context

**Bali Outcomes ******** Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD)**
**Tropical Forest Countries Alliance**  F11, Rainforest Coalition Nations
**Regional/Bilateral Initiatives**  The Heart of Borneo (Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei), GIFC (Australia), MoU on Illegal Logging (China-Indonesia, etc.)
**Local Initiatives: e.g. Declaration of the Governors** (Aceh, Papua, Papua Barat)
**Private-NGOs initiatives**  FSC (Forest Stewardship Council), RSPO (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil), etc.

##  Biofuels Sustainability: towards solutions 

## Economic approach

- to estimate abatement costs:
- how much does it cost to farmers to reduce emissions?
- Total and marginal costs
- to assess the potential of mitigation policies
- how much emissions can be expected from the use of policy instruments (emission tax, input tax, quotas,...)?
- to capture the heterogeneity of abatement costs
- where (who) will abatement occur for a given level of incentive?

-  to determine (spatially, trend) emissions and sinks
-  to link GHG emissions and C sequestration to agricultural   and forestry activities

**Ecological approach**

*link*

## DNDC: A Process-based Model for Assessing Biofuel Options 

- 	Process based models for estimating crop biomass production, soil carbon dynamics and trace gas emissions
- Daycent
- DNDC
- EPIC
- ExpertN
- Ecosys
- Fasset
- K-model

**DNDC: A Process-based Model for Assessing Biofuel Options**** **

- DNDC
- Tested and parameterized for many agroecosystems around the world
- Several teams in different countries are
- 	working on improving the model – global DNDC network
- Source code is available and is relatively simple to understand
- Data inputs are manageable
- Widely used (IPCC, linked with economic and air quality models in Europe)

## The overall structure of the DNDC model

**Crop growth and development**

**Soil C, N biogeochemistry**

**Climate / soil physics**

**MODEL**

**The overall structure of the DNDC model**

## DNDC Input Parameters

**Grain fraction of total biomass**
**Leaf/stem fraction of total biomass**
**Root fraction of total biomass**
**C:N ratios of grain/stem/root**
**Water requirement**
**Maximum LAI**
**Maximum height**
**Accumulative degree days for crop maturity**
**Initial photosynthesis efficiency rate**
**Maximum photosynthesis rate**
**N fixation rate**
**Growth rate in vegetative and reproductive stages**

**Crop Parameters**

**DNDC Input Parameters**

## DNDC was recently used for quantifying impacts of forest management on net greenhouse gas emissions for a AFB at Barksdale, LA

## Impacts of conventional tillage (CT), no-till (NT) and best management practices (BMP) for a crop field 

- at Story County, Iowa

|  | CT | NT | BMP | Unit |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Fertilizer use | 120 | 120 | 120 | kg N/ha |
| Crop yield | 4188 | 3830 | 4138 | kg C/ha |
| dSOC | -86 | 415 | 996 | kg C/ha |
| N leaching | 47 | 20 | 8 | kg N/ha |
| N2O | 19 | 28 | 16 | kg N/ha |

## Effect of climate change on wheat yield at Lethbridge, 

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**Percent change in yield**

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**Effect of climate change on wheat yield at Lethbridge, **
**Canada (2000-2100)**

- 4-5 degrees warmer
- 4% more precipitation

## Percent change in grain yield

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- IPCC A2 (CO2 Fertilization)

- IPCC A2 (No CO2 Fertilization)

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**Estimated percent change in grain yield using DNDC for wheat-fallow rotation, Australia  (2000-2100)**

## Future Challenges – finding solutions in turbulent times

- 1. Assess social-ecological system dynamics across scales – feedbacks, tipping points and transformations
- 2. Evaluate the role of ecosystem services and managed landscapes for climate adaptation and resilience building in both rich and poor countries
- 3. Advance integrated assessment methods of land use strategies that aim to benefit human well-being
- 4. Address governance implications  and the role of resilience, vulnerability, adaptation and transformation for sustainable management of the Earth system

- Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre