# Presentation: 175339

**NOAA SAB Meeting**
**November 5, 2002**

**David Rogers**
**NOAA Research**

**Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Water, Weather, and Climate Services**

## Outline

**Background**
**S&T Infusion **
**STIP Overview**
**Next Steps**

## Successfully completed Modernization and Restructuring
Products and services have improved
Performance is leveling off
Users still have needs
S&T continues advancing
How will we respond and continue to improve?

**Successfully completed Modernization and Restructuring**
**Products and services have improved**
**Performance is leveling off**
**Users still have needs**
**S&T continues advancing**
**How will we respond and continue to improve?**

**Background*****Planning for Future WWC Services***

## Background How to Improve

**Background *****How to Improve***

**Know and Anticipate Customer Needs**
**Evolve Operational Concepts**
**Train Workforce**
**Infuse Proven                                           Science and Technology**

## S&T Infusion

**Define Roles and Responsibilities for Teamwork**
**To effect transition**** **
**Define Process**
**To establish thread to operations early**
**Promote Compatible Architecture****                                                                               ****	****- ****Prediction Systems and Testbeds**
**To streamline transition**
**Plan -  Roadmaps leading Program, Budget and Execution                                                     ****	****     Plans**
**To set direction and add discipline**

***Key Elements***

## Teamwork

_**Operations:**_
**Identifies operational S&T shortfalls **
**Evaluates S&T opportunities**
**Conducts applied R&D – operational applications**
**Inserts proven new S&T into operations**
**Leads planning and budgeting                                   for S&T insertion into operations**

***S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities***

## Teamwork

_**Research**_**:**
**Develop/find R&D**
**Identify opportunities, make data/info available early**
**Respond to operational shortfalls**
**Collaborate/assist in utilization/insertion of S&T **
**Consult in maintenance of operational capabilities**
**Lead planning and budgeting for R&D**

***S&T Transition Roles and Responsibilities***

## STIPInfusion Process

**STIP*****Infusion Process***

**User **
**Needs**

**R&D **
**Required?**

**Solution**
**Analysis**

**Deployment**

**Solution**
**Selection**

**Reqirements**
**Validation**

**Solution**
**Development**

**S&T **
**Idea**

**Potential**
**Use?**

**Endorsed**
**R&D**

**Positive**
**R&D **
**Evaluation?**

**Positive**
**Demo**
**Evaluation?**

**Operational**
**Requirement?**

**Endorsed**
**Demo**

_**Requirements Pull**_

**YES**

**NO**

**YES**

## Architecture

**Prediction systems**
**Vision: Compatible research                                                                                        and operational models**
**Testbeds**
**Vision: Develop and test new S&T supporting improved             operations in laboratory settings**
** ****- When proven:  Timely, cost-effective transition to                   operations**

***Commonality/Compatibility is Key***

**WRF**

## Architecture Testbed Vision

**Architecture *****Testbed Vision***

**NWS**

**Aviation**

**Coastal**
**Marine**

**Severe**
**Weather**

**Observations**

**NWP**

**Climate**

**Satellite**
**DA**

**Hurricanes**

**Universities,**
**Labs, Other**

**Universities,**
**Labs, Other**

_**Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation**_**  *****2003 AO planned***

_**Joint Hurricane Testbed**_
***8 funded projects***

**Planned**

## Support Operational Product, Service, and                   Effectiveness Improvement Needs by:
Defining S&T Needs and Solutions
Identifying S&T Opportunities
Establishing Framework for End-to-End, Research to Operations S&T Planning and Execution including:
Planning
		Programming
			Budgeting
			Executing
Defining processes/mechanisms to accelerate S&T Infusion in disciplined, cost-effective manners

**Defining S&T Needs and Solutions**
**Identifying S&T Opportunities**
**Establishing Framework for End-to-End, Research to Operations S&T Planning and Execution including:**
**Planning**
***	******	******Programming***
**	****	****	****Budgeting**
***	******	******	******Executing***
**Defining processes/mechanisms to accelerate S&T Infusion in disciplined, cost-effective manners**

**S&T Infusion Plan (STIP) *****Purpose***

## STIP Roadmap Goals

|  | Aviation | Hydrology | Severe Wx. | Tropical | Marine | Winter Wx. | Climate | Fire Wx | Air Qual. |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Observations |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Numerical Prediction |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Forecast
Applications |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Dissemination
& Data Access |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| IT Architecture |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

-  Integrated Solutions Across Service/Science Areas

**Performance-Measure Based**
**“****End-to-End”**
*** ******Research to operations***
*** ******Observations to delivering information to users***
**Reflective of reasonable budget expectations**

## Severe Weather Summary

**Severe Weather**** ***Summary*

_**R&D Needs**_
**Tornadogenesis**
**R&D on Severe Weather**
**Cloud-Scale Models**
**Situational Awareness Tools and Training**
**R&D on Total Lightning Data and Radar Polarimetry Data **
**Objective Verification**
**Predictability Limits**
**Improved Understanding on Socioeconomic Impact**

- WSR88D Radar Upgrades
- TDWR integration
- WES/Training
- MDCRS

- Implement WRF
- Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques
- Dual Polarization
- New Satellite Remote Sensing
- Enhanced Training

_**Vision**_

**Increasing Performance**

- R&D

**2007**

**2012**

**2020**

**2002**

***High Resolution Severe Weather Warnings with Advance Lead Time and a High Level of Certainty***

## Tropical Cyclones Summary

**Tropical Cyclones**** ***Summary*

_**R&D Needs**_
**Shear Effects on Track**
**Rapid Intensity Changing Storms**
**Microphysics Effects**
**Improved Data Assimilation**
**Improved Model Physics**
**Ensemble Techniques**
**Adaptive Observations**
**Predictability Limits**

- Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades
- Expand Targeted Observations

- Implement Hurricane WRF
- Data Assimilation
- Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques
- Expand Adaptive Strategies
- New Satellite Remote Sensing

**Increasing Performance**

- Joint Hurricane Testbed

**2007**

**2012**

**2020**

**2002**

_**Vision**_
***48-hr Track Forecast Error of 80 nm***
***48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt***

## Hydrologic Services Summary

**Hydrologic Services**** ***Summary*

_**R&D Needs**_
**Better QPEs and QPFs for Input to Advanced Hydrologic Forecast Models **
**Probabilistic NWP and Hydrologic Models with Higher Resolution, Improved Physics and Data Assimilation **
**Hydrometeorological Testbeds**

- Deploy High Resolution Hydrologic Models
- Enhance Flash Flood Monitoring Tools
- Location-specific Warnings

- Graphical, Probabilistic Products
- Deploy Dual Polarization & Satellite Upgrades

_**Vision **_
**Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess & Deficits More    Frequently at More Locations**

**Increasing Performance**

- On-going Training

**2007**

**2012**

**2020**

**2002**

## Climate Services Summary

**Climate Services**** ***Summary*

**2007**

**2012**

**2002**

**Improving Forecasts and Services**

_**Vision**_
***To Provide a Seamless Suite of Products and Services of Climate***

_**R&D Needs**_
**Conduct North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)**
**Develop Empirical Prediction System for Week 2-4 forecast **
**Develop Regional Climate Model and Hydrologic Model for Water Resource Applications**

- Modernize COOP, CRN, ASOS
- Increase Moored and Drifting Buoys
- Improve Satellite Observation for SST
- VOS/ASAP

- Improve NOAH LSM and N-LDAS, G-LDAS
- Upgrade GFDL Ocean Model from MOM1 to MOM3 and MOM4 and Improve ODAS
- Improve Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling with Advanced Dynamics and Physics

** ****Develop Objective Blending Forecast Techniques**

## ObservationsSummary

**Observations*****Summary***

**2007**

**2012**

**Increasing Performance**

**2020**

**2002**

_**R&D Needs**_
**Boundary Layer Observations**
**Improved RH & Cloud Observations**
**Improved Adaptive Obs Strategies, Platforms, and Sensors**
**Improved Vertical Profile ****    Resolution**

_**Vision**_

**Supporting NWS Service missions**

**Observations When and Where Needed**

**Mature WSR-88D ORPG, ORDA**
**Rapid Expansion of Mesonets**
**Expansion of Aircraft Obs**
**Development of Testbed Strategies**

**WSR-88D Upgrades (Dual Pol, Phased Array)**
**Improved LEO and GEO Satellites;  >> data volume!!!**
**Expansion of Adaptive Obs**
**Increasing Radiation Budget Observations**

## Numerical Prediction Summary

**Numerical Prediction**** *****Summary***

**2007**

**2012**

**Increasing Performance**

**2020**

**2002**

_**R&D Needs**_
**Assimilation of Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed Data**
**Mesoscale Assimilation Techniques**
**Improved Representation of Non-Hydrostatic Scale Physics ****	**
** ****Probabilistic Approaches**
**Mesoscale Verification Techniques**

- Supporting NWS Service missions

## STIP Next Steps“Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable”                                                                  Dwight D. Eisenhower 

**Develop/Link to Program, Budget, and Execution Plans**
**Link to Strategic Plans**
**Link to Budget Process - Develop FY 05 Initiatives**