# Presentation: 568216

## Fingerprinting Native and Non-native Biodiversity,    The Theory of Biotic Acceptance,and, the story of a challenging puzzle.

**Main Project Web Page   http://www.NIISS.org**

**Tom Stohlgren (USGS), John Schnase/Neal Most Team (NASA),**
**Mohammed Kalkhan (CSU)**
**Catherine Jarnevich, Tracy Davern, Geneva Chong (USGS),**
**Paul Evangelista and David Barnett (CSU), with help from . . .**
**Greg Newman, Jim Graham, Jon Freeman, Alycia Waters,**
** ****Sara Simonson (NREL), John Kartesz (BONAP),** **Bruce Peterjohn,**
**Pam Fuller (USGS), Curt Flather (USFS),**
** ****and many others!**

- Created Sept. 2004

## We define “biotic acceptance” as the tendency of natural ecosystems to accommodate the establishment and coexistence of non-native species despite the presence and abundance of native species.  

- We define “biotic acceptance” as the tendency of natural ecosystems to accommodate the establishment and coexistence of non-native species despite the presence and abundance of native species.

**Puzzle Piece #1: Talented**
**and enthusiastic research team**

**We’re simple ecologists,**
**with a ground-up approach!**

**Notes:**
The greatest tools we have are trained taxonomists, people that know the difference between native and exotic species. It is essential to have taxonomists who can readily identify native rare species or can identify early a new exotic that may not be listed in the local, regional or state record. By providing these folks with a proper study design, palmtop computers, and the latest technologies, we can more accurately depict the realities of the field. 

## Small-scale measurements?

- Woody Turner’s “Biological Fingerprinting” workshop in NY – a challenge to scale-up!
- Local, state, national and international, interest in invasive species science and biodiversity.
- Partnerships with scientists and program managers who are not afraid to think big (Jim, John, Ed, Woody, the Jeff’s, Neal (NASA); Sue, Sharon, Bob, Mark, Pam (USGS) and many others.
- A talented and enthusiastic research team.

**What allowed us to Scale-Up?**

## Puzzle Piece #2: Careful

| Multi-scale Sampling Matters! | 1-m2 subplots |   four 1000-m2 plots |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Two Rocky Mt. veg. types | positive | positive |
| Two Grassland veg. types | negative | positive |

**Puzzle Piece #2: Careful**
**ground-based, multi-scale measurements**

**Notes:**
In fact, contrary to theory that exotic species invade areas of low diversity, the most heavily invaded areas in natural landscapes are high in diversity and are located in rare habitats in both the Central Grasslands and in the Rocky Mountain Grasslands. There is only 3% of the tall grass prairie left in the U.S., and it is being heavily invaded, while our short grass steppe, despite hundreds of years of ungulate grazing is relatively poorly invaded.  Meanwhile, in the Rocky Mountains, it’s the rare stands of aspen that are being invaded, while the more common lodgepole pine stands are not being invaded (due in part to low light conditions under the canopy).  Why are we finding that hotspots of native plant diversity are being invaded?

## 37 Vegetation types

**37 Vegetation types**
**Mean = 19.6 plots/type**
**Median = 11 plots per type**
**727 1000-m****2**** subplots**
**7,042   1-m****2**** subplots**

**Puzzle Piece #3: Comparable measurements in many vegetation types and biomes.**

## Biotic acceptance increases among communities (regionally)

**Biotic acceptance increases among communities (regionally)**
** ****and the changing relationship may be non-linear.**

**Puzzle Piece #4: Understanding the effects of scale on **_***alpha***_** diversity.**

## Biotic acceptance increases more in communities

**Biotic acceptance increases more in communities**
**high in beta diversity (i.e., high species accumulation curves;**
**and high/optimum resources – water, light, nutrients, warmth).**

**Vegetation-type-  and regional-scale**

**Puzzle Piece #5: Understanding the effects of scale on **_***Beta***_** diversity:**
**i.e., at regional scales.**

## Biotic acceptance may increase with increasing establishment of non-native species.

**Biotic acceptance may increase with increasing establishment of non-native species.**
**This appears to be a much stronger force than the negative effects of native species richness and biomass with R****2**** values between 0.43 and 0.58.**
** **

**Puzzle Piece #6: Understanding**
**temporal changes in diversity:**
**i.e., 400 years of invasion and continuing.**

## Gilbert and

**Gilbert and**
**Lechowicz. 2005**

**Brown and Peet.**
**2003, Friedly et al.**
**2004**

**Bruno**
**et al. 2004**

**The Present**

**Puzzle Piece #7 Link with other studies – Past, present, and future:**
**Stohlgren et al. 1997, 1999; Lonsdale 1999, Levine 2000, Stohlgren et al. 2001, 2003**

**Keeley**
** ****et al.**
**2003**

**Davies et**
**al. 2005**

**Many other studies in different vegetation types are demonstrating **
**biotic acceptance at multiple spatial scales or large scales. **

**Sax**
**2002,**
**Dark**
**2004**

**Jim Quinn**
**Data**

**Bob Peet**
**VegBank Data**

## Stohlgren et al. 2005a -- Geez!  Those are very high R2 values!

- Stohlgren et al. 2005a -- Geez!  Those are very high R2 values!

**Puzzle Piece #8: regional verification. **

## Methods: (1) Gather data; (2) Assess data quality; (3) evaluate patterns (GIS maps, regressions, cross-correlations 

**Methods: (1) Gather data; (2) Assess data quality; (3) evaluate patterns (GIS maps, regressions, cross-correlations**

**Bruce Peterjohn**
- (Breeding Bird Survey = 4,000 routes, 10 years,  and bird atlases = life times of
- birding)

**Pam Fuller**, South Florida-Caribbean
-  Science Center, USGS (10 years of
- Research, >200,000 records and **Larry**
** ****Master**, NatureServe’s huge database).

**John Kartesz**, Biota of North America
- Program, Univ. North Carolina. (46 states,
- Over 3000 counties, 500,000 records,
- 10 years of research, standard reference).

- Stohlgren, Barnett, and Flather are just “data miners”

-  Stohlgren et al. 2005b. Species richness and patterns of invasion in plants, birds,
- and fishes in the United States.  *Biological Invasions (In Press)*

**Puzzle Piece #9: Gather and evaluate national databases.**

**Notes:**
The true gods of science are taxonomists and data managers that collect data on taxa.

## > 170

- Native plant species/county

- Non-native plant species/county

## Native bird species/county

- Non-indigenous bird species/county

## Non-indigenous fish species/watershed

- Native fish species/watershed

## Puzzle Piece #10: Quantify cross-taxa patterns Stohlgren et al. 2005b Biological Invasions (in press)          

**Puzzle Piece #10: Quantify cross-taxa patterns Stohlgren et al. 2005b Biological Invasions (in press)          **

## Results are encouraging, so far . . .

- Native plant, bird, and fish densities generally track latitude, temperature, precip., and each other (i.e., habitat heterogeneity) all “proven” factors of “local determinism,” but no sign of the “saturation of species.”
- Human factors (population, road density, land-use change) are weakly correlated to native diversity, and more strongly correlated to non-native diversity, but environmental factors may be more proximate predictors of native and non-native species diversity.
- At county scales, non-native species densities also track native species densities (for plants, birds, and fish) – and the biological groups track each other – “the rich get richer” within and across biological groups, and this pattern is strongly predictable!

**This is great!**

## National Institute of Invasive Species Science 

- Multiple data types
- Upload via the web in three formats
- Palm programs (weed mapping and vegetation survey)
- GIS Shapefile
- Tab-delimited text file
-  User maps fields to database fields
-  Require specific format (e.g. standardized measurements)

**National Institute of Invasive Species Science **
**Global Organism Detection and Monitoring System**

**Objective:** Capturing information (location data, species characteristics, and environmental attributes) on all taxa of invasive species to detect, control, and monitor their spread. Integrating these data to serve land managers, land owners, researchers, government officials, and the public.

**From the field...**

**To the modeling...**

- Filed crews use palmtops downloaded to the database via phones or computers.

- Rocky Mountain National Park

- Current and potential abundance and distribution
- Probability maps
- Gaps in knowledge from uncertainty maps
- Smart surveys
- Select priority species and sites
- Vulnerability and risk analysis

**URL:   http://www.niiss.org**

**To the database...**

- SQL Server- extensible and standardized
- Three main, required fields
- Area: geographic location
- Visit: date area was visited
- OrganismData: unique organism id for a visit
- Capture metadata, auxiliary data, spatial data (e.g. shapefile for area), treatments (control information), etc.

**To the future...**

- Tentative release date September 2005
- E-mail new species report to manager
- On-line modeling capabilities
- Download selected data
- PDF report with map, profile, control information, and model

**To the web...**

- Based on enterprise database, custom COM objects, and ASP pages
- Interactive map displaying invasive species distributions
- Add new locations by clicking the map
- Query the database by species, project, or area
- Real-time statistics and links to research
- Species profiles
- Watch lists

- Probability of occurrence for leafy spurge in Colorado modeled and tested using informations from 45 datasets.

**Puzzle Piece #11: Improve data handling and promote data sharing.**

## Puzzle Piece #12:  Improve data accessibility --   www.niiss.org

**Puzzle Piece #12:  Improve data accessibility --   www.niiss.org**

## Nation

**Nation**

**Site**

**County, State, Region**

**Need to know:**
**1. Current distribution and abundance,**
**2. Data completeness****,**
**3. Potential dist. and abund.,**
**4. Potential rate of spread,**
**5. Risks/Impacts (env. & econ &     human health)**
**6. Containment Potential**
**7. Opportunity costs**
**8. Legal mandates**
**To select  Priority Species and Priority Sites**

**Rarely done**

**Requires modeling**

**Puzzle Piece #13: Developing strategies for others to effectively use your data, capabilities, and services**
** – ****e.g.,  Risk Assessment and Early Detection / Rapid Response Needs**

**Stohlgren, T. and J. Schnase. 2005. Biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species. **
**Risk Analysis Journal (In Press) **

## For more information see www.NIISS.org 

**For more information see **_[www.NIISS.org](http://www.niiss.org/)__ _

**Puzzle Piece #14: Improve spatial modeling and forecasting capabilities.**
**THE KEY PIECE TO THE PUZZLE!  **

## Preliminary Model of Potential Spread in 10 Years

- 10 Years

- Containment
- Boundary

- Early Detection
- Rapid Response Sites

- Priority
- Survey Sites

- Control/
- Restoration
- Monitoring
- Sites

## “Biomass Maps” (g/0.5m2)

**“****Biomass Maps” (g/0.5m****2****)**

**Hackberry Canyon Watershed, Utah**

**Puzzle Piece #15: Adjust to changing customer needs.  **

**Tamarisk locations**

**“****Presence Maps”**

## For more information see www.NIISS.org 

**For more information see **_[www.NIISS.org](http://www.niiss.org/)__ _

- We have many pieces of the puzzle in place.
- We are integrating across disciplines and programs (NASA/USGS).
- We have made progress in many areas.
- We are producing valuable products.
- We still have much of our work ahead of us to complete the puzzle.

**Great **
**Research**
**Team**

**Fail-proof**
**Web-service**

**Alpha, *****Beta, and ***
***Gamma***** diversity**

**Many more**
** ****datasets**

**Many more taxa**
**(diseases/**
**pathogens)**

**Cluster computing**
**and modeling**

**Fine-**
**Scale**
**Maps**
**Spp. +**
**habitats**

**Links to other studies**

**Regional &**
**National data**

**Backup**
** ****systems**

**Improved**
**Decision**
**Support**

**Additional**
**Spatial &**
**Temporal**
** ****models**

**Improved**
**data handling**
**and access**

**Local/**
**Regional verification**

**Cross-**
**Taxa **
**tests**

**Automated**
**data ingest and**
**modeling**

**Multi-scale**
**Surveys**

**Customers are **
**lining up**

**EDRR**

**NIISS**

**Web**
**focus**
**and**
**tools**

## Lots on invaders! More every day!

- Plant, Animals, and Diseases
- Aquatic and Terrestrial

**Notes:**
The invasion of the U.S. is underway

One If By Land,Two If By Sea Initiative: Documenting, Mapping,
and Predicting Non-native Plants, Animals, and Diseases in the U.S.

##   Managing Invasive Species is:

**2.   Difficult: ** Issues of scaling, data synergy, data hording, limited funds, multiple spatial scales, multiple biological groups, and human and animal behavior. It also involves a “Grand Challenge” Ecological forecasting of biological organisms – frontiers in science.

**3.  Costly:** Prevention, early detection and rapid assessment, survey and monitoring, research, and restoration carry a high price.
**     **
** ****BUT – the cost of inaction is far greater $120 B/yr, lost production, increased maintenance, species loss, habitat degradation, costs to human health!**

**  ****Managing Invasive Species is:**
**Urgent: ** Extremely high demand for meeting more customers needs. Need technology assisted field techniques; iterative field and modeling methods for invasive species surveys; data entry/mapping tools linked to large relational databases, remote sensing, and GIS tools, and economic analyses – NOW!

**Notes:**
Curt found that the relative abundance of exotic birds was higher in high productivity agriculture lands, but climate variables were very important too.

## Biodiversity Outlook:

**Over much of the US, and maybe the globe, “the rich get richer.”**
**The invasion is in the early stages.**
**Establishment + inevitable disturbance will facilitate future invasion. **
**More sites will become dominated by invaders over time.**
**Species extinction will be slow, but significant, relative to the invasion.**
**Coexistence is the rule – but extirpation, hybridization, habitat degradation, diseases, pathogens, and extinction are inevitable!  **

**Biodiversity Outlook:**

## Scale-Up! Speed up! Invest More!

**For more information see **_[www.NIISS.org](http://www.niiss.org/)__ _

**Scale-Up! Speed up! Invest More!**