# Presentation: 341172

## Integrated Energy-Environmental Modeling for Regional Scenario Analysis

**Timothy Johnson**** U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development****Research Triangle Park, NC****EPA CNS Progress Review Workshop****18 October 2005**

## NRMRL’s Integrated Strategic Assessment Workgroup (ISA-W)

- Support ORD Global Change Program (MARKAL modeling)
- Develop and assess scenarios of future technologies thru 2050
- Focus on transportation and electricity sector
- Better understand how technological evolution could impact future regional air emissions
- Transition program from emissions to adaptation focus
- Provide useful analyses and tools to states and regions that are trying to make energy/technology decisions

## EPA Energy System Analysis

- Origins in EPA’s *Global Change Research Program*
- How might global climate change affect regional weather and (in turn) atmospheric pollution?
- Drivers of atmospheric pollution:
- Chemical reaction and transport
- Biogenic emissions
- Anthropogenic emissions
- Technological change is fundamental to the latter
- The analysis requires an *integrated* modeling framework

## EPA Global Climate Change Program’s Air Quality Assessment

## ISA-W Modeling Goals

- Develop and assess scenarios of energy technology evolution in emissions-intensive sectors of the U.S. economy (transportation and electricity) and calculate associated emissions trajectories
- Scenario analysis – *NOT* prediction
- Focus on 2000 to 2050 timeframe
- Take into account driving forces:
- Technological change
- Energy supply, demand, and price dynamics
- Environmental, energy, and land use policies
- Region-specific factors (demand patterns, technology preferences, fuel availability)

## MARKAL Modeling of Energy System

**Energy System Interactions**

## Regional MARKAL: Motivation Behind New England Pilot Effort

- Decisions about technology and impacts from technology choice occur at regional and local scales
- Policy actions relevant to climate and air quality are being taken at regional and local scales
- e.g., Criteria pollutant mitigation, technology portfolio standards, systems benefits charges, climate considerations
- States and local entities need tools to assess energy-technology-environment policies

## New England MARKAL Project

- Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM) is developing, hosting, and running the model
- Six states, each modeled as its own region (now adding NY, NJ, DE; later MD, DC, PA)
- EPA has sponsored model development – not analysis

## Outcomes: The New England MARKAL Project Is Helping EPA . . .

- Determine what data are readily available at state and regional levels and what gaps must be filled
- Prepare structures for handling regional model data
- Test the model development and utilization process
- Demonstrate the value of a regional modeling framework

## Specific Projects

- Assess regional differences in technology suitability (wind, solar, biomass, CO2 sequestration, distributed generation, H2 infrastructure)
- Compare emission trading schemes
- Examine smart growth proposals in the context of their environmental benefits
- Analyze benefits of region-specific policy levers (renewable portfolio standards, systems benefits charges, green power purchases)

## Applying NE-MARKAL

## Broader EPA Regional Research Questions

- What are the multimedia implications of global change (e.g., climate variability, population growth, economic development, and technology adoption) on future regional-scale environmental quality?
- What are the relative economic costs and environmental benefits of adaptation options?
- What strategies are available to decision-makers to adapt to global change and improve environmental quality?
- What information, analyses, and tools do decision makers actually need?  How should it be packaged?

## Linkage to OAQPS Response Surface Model for Air Quality Screening

***Linkage to OAQPS Response Surface Model for Air Quality Screening***

## Decision Support Tool Design and Development

**NE-MARKAL**
**Energy System Model**

**Response Surface Model**
**Air Quality Model Surrogate**

**BENMAP**
**Health Benefits Model**

**Ambient Air Quality**

**Emissions**

**Modeling Framework**

**Decision Support System**

**Decision-maker/Analyst**

## For More Information Please Contact:

- Tim Johnson
- (919) 541-0575
- johnson.tim@epa.gov

- US EPA
- Mail Drop E305-02
- 109 T.W. Alexander Drive
- Research Triangle Park, NC 27711