# Presentation: 514185

## NSS SSG Space Weather  Architecture StudyTransition 

*** ******28 September 1999***

***Space Weather ***

## Briefing Purpose

- Provide Space Weather ADT Overview
- Review Transition Plan Development
- Summarize Space Weather Transition Plan
- Show Relationship with the National Space Weather Program (NSWP)
- Set the Stage for:
- Transition Plan Approval by NSS SSG
- Signing of the Space Weather Architecture Implementation Memorandum

## Space Weather Overview

**What is Space Weather?**

**And Why Should I Care?**

**	****	****Ionospheric**** ****	****Space**
**	**** ****Density  ****	****	****Scintillation****	**** Radiation**
**HF Comm ****	********	**
**GB Radar****	**** ********	**** ****	******
**GPS****	**** ********	****	**** ********	**** ******
**SB Radar****	**** ********	****	**** ********	**** ******
**Geolocation****	**** ********	****	**** ********	**** ******
**UHF SATCOM****	****	****	**** ********	**** ******
**Other SATCOM****	**** ****	****	****	******
**SBIRS****	**** ****	****	****	******
**SB EO Imager****	**** ****	****	****	******

***KEY IMPACTS***

***OTHER IMPACTS***

***LEO Satellites - Neutral Density, ***
***GBR (Polar) & SBIRS Low- Auroral Emissions***
***GBR & SATCOM - Solar Radio Noise***
***Power Grids - Ground Induced Currents***

**Conditions on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems as well as endanger human life and health .  - *****Space Weather TOR 1998***

*Domains: **	**Solar, Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, & Thermosphere*
*Phenomena:** **	**EM Radiation, Charged Particles, Geomagnetic Storms, Electron Density, Scintillation, Neutral Density, Aurora, Solar RFI*

## Operational Impacts: Ionospheric Effects on Signals

- Time : 5 Min Increments

- Signal to Noise
- Ratio (dB)

***Operational Impacts:****** ******Ionospheric Effects on Signals***

**Undisturbed**
**Ionosphere**

**Ionospheric**
**Turbulence**

_**Scintillation**_

_**Electron Density**_

_**Absorb**_

**Ionosphere**

- Apparent Location

- True Location

**X**

_**Bend & Delay**_

**Ionosphere**

- GPS Loss of Lock
- SATCOM Outages
- Radar Interference

- Radar Errors
- Geolocation Errors
- GPS Errors

- HF Radio Outages

**-32**

**0**

**-4**

**-8**

**-12**

**-16**

**-20**

**-24**

**-28**

- Scintillation Onset

**Notes:**
Now look at some key impact areas
Variations caused by Solar Activity
Ionospheric scintillation:  Occurs because of localized ionospheric turbulence which causes rapid fluctuations in signal strength
Ionospheric Electron Density: The ionosphere always causes some bending and delay of a radar beam, but during disturbed periods the amount of refraction can increase, and if not accounted for can cause errors in the assumed position of a detected object. 
Deviations of the atmospheric total electron content values from climate models degrade the performance of radar tracking and can introduce navigational errors
Strong ionospheric disturbances may cause single frequency GPS receivers to provide position errors of 100 meters
HF communications is affected by absorption within the D-region of the ionosphere; solar flares increase the absorption which may render the HF comm unusable.  A class X flare would render the HF comm for this scenario unusable for 1/2 to several hours

## Operational Impacts: Radiation Effects on Spacecraft

-  **Surface Damage**
-  Caused by Low Energy Particles, UV & X-Rays
-  Degradation of Thermal Control Material
-  Damage to Solar Cells

-  **Deep and Surface Charging**
-  Caused by Low & High Energy Particles
-  Discharges cause Upset/Burnout

-  **Single Event Effects (SEE)**
-  Caused by High Energy Particles
-  Memory Changes
-  False Sensor Readings
-  Processor Latch-up
-  Burnout

**Solar**
**Activity**

**Cosmic**
**Radiation**

**Notes:**
Deep and Surface Charging  
Caused by energetic particles inducing an uneven buildup of electric charge
Charge present until triggered (on board activity, change in particle environment)
Result: electrostatic discharge or arcing
Surface Damage:  
Caused by cumulative degradation due to exposure to ionizing radiation. 
Damage can occur to thermal control material and solar panels
Single Event Effects (SEE):  
Caused by single high energy particle penetrating into or through a vehicle creating charge build-up in microcircuits
Soft errors (transients) can occur through memory changes or false sensor readings
Hard errors can occur like latch-up (temporary outage requiring reset action) or permanent burnout (of insulator or power junction)

## Yohkoh

*** ******Support System***

- Solar Optical Observing Network (4)
- Radio Solar  Telescope Network (4)
- Digital Ionospheric Sounding Sys (16)
- Ionospheric  Measuring System (5)
- Neutron Monitor (1)
- Riometer (1)

- Canadian Radio Observatory
- Australian Observatory
- Australian Ionospheric Network (5)

- GPS/NDS

- POES

- GOES

- ACE

- Commercial Users

**55 SWXS** (AFSPC)

**SEC** (NOAA)

- DSP

- DMSP

- DoD Users

**Space Systems**

**Ground Stations**

- CLASSIFIED

- National Solar Observatories (2)
- JPL TEC Monitors (25)
- Archival Center
- USGS Magnetometer Network (13)

- SOHO

**Notes:**
“Current Space Weather Support System”
The current space weather support system integrates information obtained from space and ground-based assets
The Air Force 55SWXS and the NOAA Space Environment Center complement each other in providing support to DoD and civil/commercial users
Agreements exist with NASA to obtain real-time data from various research satellites; likewise, cooperative efforts with USGS, JPL and some foreign countries provide data from ground-base sites

## Future Needs

***Future Needs***

- Scintillation limits space-based radar coverage
- Radiation limits processing for direct downlink
- Electron density causes geolocation errors
- Scintillation breaks space-based cell phone links
- ISR satellite failures to charging

- Coverage
- Timeliness
- Accuracy
- C2
- Situational Awareness

- Increased Demands

- Example System Impacts

- Weapons Delivery

_***Past***_*                                  *_***Present***_*                               *_***Future***_

- Surveillance & Comms

- Weapons Support, Space Station, Power Grids

- Space Control

**Notes:**
In the past space systems provided a support function, in the future, terrestrial weapons will be directly targeted using space, or even fired from space, for example the trend from DSP to SBIRS-Low
This trend will drive an increase in the coverage, timeliness, accuracy, C2 assuredness and situation awareness requirements
Space weather can significantly impact the ability to achieve these gains
Examples:
Ionospheric scintillation can reduce the coverage of future space-based radars, operating in the UHF band, by creating denied areas much as clouds block areas from EO sensors
The limitations on space-based processor capability and the risk of data loss caused by radiation may limit future space systems to provide direct downlink to the shooter
Uncertainty in the ionospheric electron density can degrade the accuracy of  pinpointing a target on the ground, which will impact missions such as PGM employment, SOF extraction, etc.
DISA and studies such as AAN project a large increase in the use of commercial space cell phone service by soldiers,  these UHF links are very vulnerable to breaking in the presence of scintillation, especially when already degraded by enemy ECM
The relatively small numbers of critical ISR satellites will mean that any outage due to space weather will have a disproportionate impact

## SWx Architecture Study

***SWx Architecture Study***

**Team 1**

**Team 2**

**Team 3**

**Integration Panel**

- I

- II

- III

**Integration Panel**

**Phase IIA**

**Cost**

**Analysis **

**Integration Panel**

**Phase IIB**

*Each Team Determine Axis & Define Architecture Alternatives*

** **ADT Consensus*

**Cost Team**

**TWG**

**Analysis Team**

**ORWG**

**Phase I **
**“****So What”**

**Phase II Decision Point**

**Integration Panel**

**Apr 98**

**Dec 97**

**May 98**

**Jul 98**

**Jan 99**

**Aug 98**

**Design**

**NSSA**
**Tracking**

**Sep 99+**

**SWx Agencies**

**Transition **
**Team **

*DCG & SSG*
*Review & Approve*

**Tiger**

**Post ADT**

**Notes:**
The SWx architecture study was conducted in two phases. 
 Phase I determined that an architecture study was warranted and gathered the information necessary to conduct it.  
Phase II developed and analyzed architecture alternatives, and generated SWx architecture findings and recommendations.  
After study completion, a Transition Team, composed of stakeholder representatives, will develop a plan to implement the approved recommendations.  
The NSSA will continue to track aspects of the architecture implementation to monitor compliance.

## 9 SWx Architecture StudyRecommendations

**SWx and Man-Made Effects Information Coordination**

**Space Weather Importance Awareness**

**Space Weather Requirements**

**Coordinated Space Weather Architecture Acquisition**

**Space Weather Information Archive**

**Integrated User Information **

**Centralized Space Weather Center**

**Research & Development are Key to Space Weather Architecture**

**Pursue a Space Weather Architecture Vector**

## SWx Architecture Deliverables

**22 March 1999**** **
**NSS SSG Briefing**
**Draft Architecture Guidance Memo**
**Transition Strategy **
**Study Final Report **

**ASD (C3I) & NOAA directed to lead Space Weather Architecture Transition Team **
**Team tasked to develop an Architecture Transition Plan**
**Series of meetings, working groups, assignments used to build plan****	**
**Stake holder organizations participated **
**Team membership **
**Organizational coordination and endorsement**
**Comments/concerns resolved and incorporated into plan**
**SWx Community prepared to implement plan**** **
**NSWP Implementation Plan  development/coordination**

**28 September 1999**
**Transition Plan**
**Architecture Implementation Memo**

**31 July 1999**
**CD Archive of Study**

**30 April 1999**
**Final Report Background Material **

## Transition Team Schedule

**Stakeholders Roles & Responsibilities**

***Transition Team Schedule***

**Mar**

**Feb**

**Jan**

**Apr**

**Jun**

**Meetings**

- SSG

- DCG2

**Transition **
**Strategy**

- Draft

-  Final

**Roadmap**

- Draft

- Final Plan

**NSSA Effort**

- Lead                                           Support                                                       Track

- Coordination
- Mtg

- K/O
- Mtg

- Working Group Meetings

**Jul**

- ID Orgs         Working                                                        Coordinate/Implement

- Transition
- Plan
- Development

**May**

- Draft Final Plan

- Coordination

- SSG-WG

**Aug**

- SSG

**ODASD(C3I) **
**& NOAA**

- Support                                      Lead                                                            Support

**Sep**

- SSG-WG

##  Transition Planning Responsibilities

-  - OPR

-  - OCR

-  **S**

-  - Support

-   - Overall

**OVERALL TRANSITION PLANNING**

**NSSA**

-  **S**

**9a.  Provide timely data to Space Control Mission**

**7. Evolve to an Integrated SWx Center**

**3.  Develop & Update SWx Requirements**

**2.  Integrate SWx into User Systems**

**5.  Consolidate and Expand Archival System**

**4.  Identify Cognizant DoD Acquisition Agent**

**6.  Provide SWx Info in User Terms and use **
**    ****Common Dissemination Channels**

**     **

**9b.  Incorporate Man-made effects into SWx Arch  **

**8b.  Leverage R&D missions**

**8a.  Provide a robust R&D to develop **
**       ****Operational Capabilities**

**1.  Pursue Recommended SWx Arch  Vector**

**DTRA**

**ASDC3I**

**NAVSPACE**

**USASMDC**

**DOT/FAA**

**DOE**

**DOI**

**NSF**

**NRO**

**NOAA**

**USSPACE**

**SMC**

**LABs**

**NASA**

**OFCM**

**AF/XOW**

**AFSPC**

## SWx Transition Plan Development

- SWx Architecture Study
-  Recommendations

- Current SWx
- Support System

- Stakeholder
- Plans and Funding

- Tasks, Actions &
- Activities

- Architecture Element
- Timelines

- Investment Strategy

- Inputs

- Outcomes

## SWx Transition Plan Actions

_**Recommendation 1: Space Weather Architecture Vector**_** **
- Increase emphasis on Operational Model development
- Ensure improved Operational Capabilities based on User Needs
- National Security priorities include Ionospheric and  Radiation Environment Specifications and Forecasts
- Civil priorities also include Geomagnetic Warnings and Forecasts
- Evolve to Improved Forecast Capabilities, as phenomenology is better understood, models mature and user needs are better defined

_**Main Actions**_
- Sensors:  Design and deploy new/improved SWx space- and ground-based sensors
- Models:  Develop and implement advanced SWx operational models
- Funding:  Align funding with prioritized SWx project list

## Architecture Sensors

- 1 satellite at Sun-Earth Line Interplanetary

- Suite hosted on 3 NPOESS

- 1 LEO Equatorial satellite

- 2 GEO satellites - Solar and Earth Observations

- Piggy-back packages
- of  particle detectors
- hosted on many satellites

- Telescope package
- hosted on HEO satellite

**20 Sensors (Geomagnetic Equator)**
**SCINTILLATION**

** ****50 Sensor Packages (Worldwide)**
**GPS/VHF, Ionosonde, Magnetometer, etc**

**10 Sensors (Polar)**
**SCINTILLATION**

**Satellite Drag from Tracking Network**

**All-Sky Cameras (10)**

**4 SEON**

**Riometer**

- 1 satellite @ “Stereo”

- 18 SBIRS - LO

**Notes:**
Space Sensor #1 One LEO equatorial satellite to measure ionospheric properties -- dedicated satellite with 8 sensors: ion drift meter, plasma probe, magnetometer, multi-band radio beacon, UV limb photometer, FP interferometer, E-field and GPSOS
Space Sensor #2 Suite of sensors hosted on three NPOESS to make EDP and neutral density measurements -- sensors for each package: UV nadir sensor; UV limb scanner (like SULI & SUSI); topside sounder &/or GPS receiver, Magnetospheric plasma wave detector; E-field
Space Sensor #3 Solar EUV/Solar Soft X-ray imager hosted on two GEO satellite such as GOES (SUV & SXI); Solar Vector Magnetograph (SVM); Solar Surface Flow; Coronagraph & Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI); Energetic Particle Detector (>10 MeV) and Galactic Cosmic Ray detector.  Earth UV imager for scintillation regions.
Space Sensor #4 Sun-Earth-Line (SEL) Interplanetary (IP) satellite for solar and interplanetary measurements -- sensor package: magnetometer and particle detector suite; Low Freq (<10 MHz) radio receiver
Space Sensor #5 Small piggy-back packages of particle detectors (1eV-100KeV and >100KeV), ENA Imager on some, and magnetometers hosted on as many satellites as possible
Space Sensor #6 Telescope package (imager with UV, IR, and Visible light filters) hosted on a HEO satellite to stare at the northern polar cap
Space Sensor #7 Single STEREO satellite platform for white light Coronagraph.  Optional:  Magnetometer and particle detector suite.
Space Sensor #8 GPS/OS receivers piggy-backed on SBIRS-LO Satellites
Ground Sensor #1 Multiband and GPS receivers measuring scintillation, i.e., SCINDA or its follow on
Ground Sensor #2 A coordinated package including GPS/VHF receiver, ionosonde, and magnetometer dispersed world-wide.
Ground Sensor #3 All-sky cameras: low-light camcorders with fish-eye lenses at selected polar user sites.
Ground Sensor #4 Solar Radio and Optical measurements with all data transmitted elsewhere for processing; produces H and has SRBL.  Similar to current SEON but with more automation. Option to upgrade telescopes for Solar Vector Magnetographs, if not obtained from space.
Ground Sensor #5 Measures HF noise inside the polar cap (riometer) -- similar to the current sensor at Thule
Ground Sensor #6 Measures of satellite drag from network tracking data

## SWx Sensor Timeline

***SWx Sensor Timeline***

## Architecture Models

_**Space Weather Models**_

_**Forecast**_

_**Warning**_

_**Specification**_

- Solar Flare

- Coronal Mass Ejection Prediction

- Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation

- Solar Wind

- Solar Energetic Particles

- Radiation Belt

- Magnetic Particles & Fields

- Ionosphere

- Equatorial Scintillation

- Polar Scintillation

- Polar Cap Absorption

- Neutral Environment

- Aurora Emissions

- Aurora Clutter

**Notes:**
The models for forecast, warning, and specification are tied to the products needed from the SWx architecture.  While the models do not necessarily need to be divided in this way, the architecture models and the products they represent need to be included.  
Models were identified as the highest leverage portion of the SWx architecture and the design team was directed to focus on models
Aug 98 - Two week Design Team meeting - models performance evaluated for nine architectures (three axes extremes and centric); NOAA unable to participate, so results briefed to them in early Sep 98
Oct 98 - Two day Models & Technology Assessment meeting - required mission R&D and algorithm development assessed and models reassessed for Level IV(highest capability & cost) architecture
Oct/Nov 98 - based on inputs for models obtained for Level IV architecture, established priority/criticality for inputs to models for A, B & C architectures through a series of conferences call meetings with SWx models experts; these expert believed that modeling and assimilation technologies would evolve in the 2010-2025 timeframe to the level suggested by their assessments
Nov 98 (ADT # 8) - ADT stakeholders reviewed, validated and revised by consensus
Dec 98 - results of ADT # 8 assessments presented to AFSPC and NOAA during Boulder meeting for their review and recommended changes.

## Operational Models Timelines

- 2000

- 2005

- 2010

- 2015

- 2020

- 2025

- Polar Cap Absorption Forecast

- Auroral Clutter Specification

- Auroral Emission Specification

- Solar Wind Forecast

- Data Assimilation Model

- Polar Scintillation Forecast

- Solar Flare Forecast

- CME Propagation Forecast

- Solar Energectic Particle Forecast

- Radiation Belt Forecast

- Equatorial Scintillation Forecast

- Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) Forecast

- Magnetospheric Particle Forecast

- Magnetospheric Field Forecast

- Ionosphere Forecast

- Neutral Environment Forecast

- Year

- No model or only empirical models whose accuracy does not meet user requirements

- Model in use includes some physical understanding but does not meet most user requirements

- Evolved capability but model still does not meet some critical requirements

- Fully Capable Model

***Operational Models Timelines***

## SWx Transition Investment

- (All Stakeholders)

**Notes:**
Desired Architecture in FY98$M Phased over 20 year cycle.  
Basic Research peaks around Solar Max.

## Space Weather Funding

***9% Other =  NSF @8% and USGS @1%***

**$200M / year (FY98$)**

***Cost ***
***Per Agency***

***Current DoD Share ***
***of SWx Funding***

**$113M / year (FY98$)**

***Space Weather Funding***

## SWx Transition Plan Actions

- Consolidate and Expand the Existing Archival System
- Capture Space Weather Environmental Data and System Impacts
- The Archival System Should Be:
- Centrally Managed
- User Focused
- Incorporate Standard Formats
- Accommodate Multi-level Security

_**Main Actions**_
- Develop program to archive space weather impacts
- Develop program to archive space weather data
- Provide climatological studies for system design and planning

***SWx Transition Plan Actions***

## Example:  Recommendation Actions to Activities

## NSSA-NSWP Linkage

**SWx Architecture Transition Plan**

***NSSA-NSWP Linkage***

**NSWP Program Council**

**NSWP Strategic Plan**

**Committee for Space Weather**

**NSWP Implementation Plan**

**DOD**

**DOC**

**NASA**

**DOE**

**DOI**

**NSF**

**DOT**

**Agency Processes**

_***National Space Weather Capability***_

**JROC**

**SSG**

**NSSA**

**NSSA ADT**

**SWx Architecture Study**

## The Way Ahead

**Transition Plan Approval by NSS SSG**
**Issue Architecture Implementation Memorandum**
**Space Weather Architecture Stakeholders **
**Implement Transition Plan**
**Track progress for their organization’s actions**
**Recommend Updates and modifications as needed**
**NSSA and C3I Advocate Space Weather Architecture**
**Key “Injection Points” (Requirements, Planning & Budget)**
**Provide NSS SSG Status**
**Support Stakeholders in coordination as needed**
**OFCM Monitor and Update Plan as needed**
**Maintain Transition Plan Database**
**Track overall progress**