# Presentation: 488949

## High Performance Geospatial Modeling of Biospheric Resources

- Jeff Pedelty & John Schnase
*NASA Goddard Space Flight Center*
*Greenbelt, Maryland*
- 25 June 2003

## Invasive SpeciesA Top Environmental Issue of the 21st Century ...

- Economic Costs:
*$137+ Billion / Yr*
*	**(Pimentel, et al. 1999; NISRC Management Plan, 2001)*
- Environmental Costs:
*Decreased biodiversity, ecological services, etc.*
- Human-Health Costs:
*West Nile Virus, Malaria, etc.*
- Agricultural Costs:
*Crop pathogens, hoof-and-mouth, mad cow disease*

- Notorious examples include:
*Dutch elm disease, chestnut blight, and purple loosestrife in the northeast; kudzu, Brazilian peppertree, water hyacinth, nutria, and fire ants in the southeast; zebra mussels, leafy spurge, and Asian long-horn beetles in the Midwest; salt cedar, Russian olive, and Africanized bees in the southwest; yellow star thistle, European wild oats, oak wilt disease, Asian clams, and white pine blister rust in California; cheatgrass, various knapweeds and thistles in the Great Basin; whirling disease of salmonids in the northwest; hundreds of invasive species from microbes to mammals in Hawaii; and the brown tree snake in Guam.*
*As many as 50,000 now,**hundreds new each year ...*

## Cheatgrass(Bromis tectorum)

- A classic example ...
*Arrived in N. America from Eurasia in late 19th Century *
*By 1920s had spread throughout the US replacing native flora in over 40 millions hectares of the arid Intermountain West*
- Biology
*Self-fertile winter annual, establishes in the fall, flowers in early spring, large seed production, can occupy disturbed sites and all soil types, 20 cm roots with extensive lateralization, dies back in early summer ...*

## Cheatgrass(Bromis tectorum)

- Ecology *(A vicious cycle ...)*
*Early emergence reduces soil moisture thereby competing with native perennials for water*
*Early die-back and impact on natives increases fuel load and fire frequency*
*Re-establishes early in burned areas*
- Impact on ecosystem processes
*Changes hydrological cycles and biogeochemical cycles (esp. C, N)*
*Alters fire regimes at landscape scales*
*Changes landscape albedo, which affects energy budgets and climate*
*Associated with other potentially unpredictable and cascading effects ...*

## Federal Government Response

- National Invasive Species Council (EO 13122 - 1999)
*Co-Chaired by Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, and Interior*
- _USGS_ has a lead role in dealing with invasive species _science_ in natural and semi-natural areas
*Responsible for measurement, management, and control on all Department of Interior and adjacent lands ...*

## USGS National Institute of Invasive Species Science

- USGS Biological Resources Division (BRD) laboratory
- Located at USGS’s Ft. Collins Science Center
- New facilities opened Aug ‘02
- Director, Tom Stohlgren
- Many current / future partners ...

**“****Needed: A National Center For Biological Invasions”**
**	****Don Schmitz and Dan Simberloff**
***	******Issues in Science and Technology*****, Summer 2001**

**“****Grand Challenge: Biodiversity and Ecosystem ****	****	****Functioning” with special emphasis on invasive species ...**
**	*****NRC Committee on Grand Challenges in******	******Environmental Sciences*****, 2001**

## USGS Science / Client Needs

- On-demand, predictive landscape- and regional-scale models and maps for biological invasions
*Pick any point, land management unit, county, state, or region and determine the current invasion, and vulnerability to future invasion by species.*
*Pick any species or group of species, and get current distributions, potential distributions, potential rates of change, and levels of uncertainty.*
- Data integration and sharing
*Comprehensive information on control efforts and cost. Share early detection data, control strategies, local expertise. Help public and private land managers*.

## Public Interfacehttp://bp.gsfc.nasa.gov

**Notes:**
The Invasive Species Forecasting System is being made available to the extended community through the National Biological Information Infrastructure program and “InvasiveSpecies.gov” .

## USGS Predictive Modeling

**Hot spots of native**
**biodiversity**
**Distribution of**
**non-native species**
**Potential spread of**
**invasive species.**
**Barriers to rapid invasions.**
** **
**Corridors that may accelerate invasions.**
**Economic and environmental risk assessments, vulnerability of habitats to invasion.**
**Priorities for control and containment.**

_**Output**_
- GIS - Spatial
- Statistical Dynamic
- Models and Maps

- Final Trend
- Surface Map
- Large - Small
- Scale Variability

- Model Residuals
- Using Co-Kriging

- Model Residuals
- Using * ***Kriging ****
- (Universal,
- Ordinary, other)

- Regression
- Trees
- Classifications

- Testing if Residuals
- Cross-Correlated with
- Other Variables

- Testing if There Is
- Spatial Auto-Correlation
- In the Residuals

- Trend Surface Analysis
- With Stepwise Multiple
- Regression Using
- OLS, GLS, SAR, or * ***Exhaustive Regression ****

- Yes

- No

- No

_**Input Variables**_** (150+)**
**Remotely Sensed data:**
**(ETM, SPOT, MTI, EO1, etc.)**
**Derived Remote Sensing**
**(Vegetation Indices, PCA**
**Tasseled Cap, other)**
**Biotic/Abiotic Data:**
**Topographic Data**
**Species Data**
**Vegetation- Forest Data**
**Soils Characteristics**
**Cryptobiotic Crusts**
**Wildfire Severity**
**Biodiversity**
**Air Pollution**
**Geology, Other**
**Environmental Data**

- Yes

- Yes

**USGS Predictive Modeling**

**Notes:**
USGS is using geostatistical techniques to produce predictive maps of hotspots for potential invasion.

The process ingests a wide range of ecological attributes, field sample data and satellite data. Linear regression and trend surface analyses with kriging are performed to produce DSS products that account for high-resolution spatial distributions in the environments being modeled.

NASA is helping USGS deal with the computational bottlenecks in this process. (shown in red). NASA is also helping move the USGS modeling process into an easy-to-use, Web-based framework so that the techniques are more accessible to the broader community. (shown in yellow) 

We refer to the integrated system as the Invasive Species Forecasting System.

## What is Kriging?

- Spatial interpolator
- A linear combination of point measurements that exploits structure of spatial auto-correlation present in the data
- Spatial structure determines the appropriate weights for points that are “close” – allows for anisotropy
- Spatial structure is determined by modeling the empirical variogram – auto-correlation as a function of the separation distance
- Kriging determines weights by minimizing the variance of the errors: Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE)
- _An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics_, Isaaks & Srivastava, 1989, Oxford University Press.

## Why Kriging?

- Stepwise regression is used to find the relationship between field samples and remote sensing, DEM, and ancillary data
- Residuals (predictions from the stepwise regression minus observed value) are calculated for each sample point
- Residuals are tested for spatial structure via viewing empirical variograms and statistical hypothesis testing (Moran’s I)
- If spatial structure exists Kriging is used to estimate the residual *surface* for the entire study area
- Kriged residual surface is then added to the stepwise regression model to produce a final prediction that includes both small and large scale structure

## Why Parallel Kriging?

- Kriging step in USGS processes has presented a major bottleneck.
- Reducing the time of this computation allows different input variables to be considered, larger data sets to be incorporated, and more sites/locations to be modeled.
- Kriging algorithms are widely used in general and parallel version has equally wide and general application.

## Field Sampling in theRocky Mountain National Park

## Kriging Algorithm

- Begin with ndata samples of quantity R
- For each pixel in the output image
- Calculate distance from pixel to each sample data point  (ndata x 1)
- Sort vector to find the nn nearest neighbor samples (nn x 1)
- Calculate covariance matrix **C****ij** for nearest neighbors (nn x nn)
- Calculate covariance vector **D****j** for nearest neighbors (nn x 1)
- Invert covariance matrix **C****ij**
- Multiply by covariance vector to create weight vector (nn x 1)
**	****	****	****W = C****-1**** ********D**
- Calculate dot product of data samples and weights to estimate R
**	****	****	****	****R****estimated**** = W ******** V**

## An Elegantly Parallel Algorithm

- Parallelize using Domain Decomposition
- Each processor gets a chunk of complete rows

## Medusa / Frio Configuration

**Medusa / Frio Configuration**

- Frio on J. Schnase’s desk
- Linux PC w/ 1.2GHz Athlon processor and 1.5GB memory

- Gigabit Ethernet

- Medusa Beowulf Cluster at NASA’s GSFC
- 128-processor 1.2GHz Athlon MP
- 1GB memory on each dual-cpu node
- 2 Gbps Myrinet® internal network

## MPI ImplementationSimple Version

- Propagate input data from node 0 to all compute nodes
- X, Y sample locations and residuals at each point
- Desired size and resolution of output Kriged image
- Number of nearest neighbor samples to use
- Variogram information
- Node 0 then starts MPI job on all compute nodes
- Each compute node then:
- Determines its processor number and total number of CPUs
- Calculates its assigned rows
- Writes its rows (subimage) to local disk when finished
- Node 0 grabs all files from each node
- Reassembles complete output image

## MPI ImplementationRefined Version

- Simple version does all computation before doing any communication
- Refined version overlaps communication w/ computation
- At end of each row, each compute node issues asynchronous send (MPI_ISEND) of the row to node 0
- Processes next row while previous row is sent to node 0
- Issues wait/synchronize (MPI_WAIT) to verify receipt of previous row before sending current row.
- Meanwhile, node 0:
- Posts asynchronous receives from each compute node (MPI_IRECV)
- Issues MPI_WAITs to synchronize
- Builds output image row by row in memory
- Complete image is available when final compute node finishes

## Timing ResultsWall-clock seconds on Medusa w/ Myrinet®

| Number of Processors | Size of Kriged Image |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | 20482 | 10242 | 7682 | 5122 |
| 64 | 583.9 | 147.5 | 84.0 | 38.4 |
| 32 | 1150.4 | 289.8 | 163.8 | 73.8 |
| 16 | 2285.1 | 573.89 | 324.0 | 144.7 |
| 8 | 4558.4 | 1142.0 | 642.8 | 287.2 |
| 4 | 9083.9 | 2277.4 | 1281.3 | 571.5 |
| 2 | 18190.4 | 4556.3 | 2562.0 | 1140.9 |
| 1 | 36252.7 | 9079.6 | 5107.0 | 2269.1 |

## Scaling Curves

**Number of processors**

**Processing time, wall clock seconds**

## Scaling Results

- Run time scales with area Kriged
- 20482 ran 16x longer than 5122
- Nearly linear scaling with # processors

## Speedup Results

| Number of Processors | Size of Kriged Image |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | 20482 | 10242 | 7682 | 5122 |
| 64 | 62.1 | 61.6 | 60.8 | 59 |
| 32 | 31.2 | 30.9 | 30.5 | 29.7 |
| 16 | 15.6 | 15.4 | 15.3 | 14.9 |
| 8 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.5 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| 2 | 1.97 | 1.96 | 1.95 | 1.92 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |

## Scaling Efficiencies

| Number of Processors | Size of Kriged Image |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | 20482 | 10242 | 7682 | 5122 |
| 64 | 97.0% | 96.2% | 95.0% | 92.3% |
| 32 | 98.5% | 97.9% | 97.4% | 96.0% |
| 16 | 99.2% | 98.9% | 98.5% | 98.0% |
| 8 | 99.4% | 99.4% | 99.3% | 98.8% |
| 4 | 99.8% | 99.7% | 99.6% | 99.3% |
| 2 | 99.6% | 99.6% | 99.7% | 99.4% |
| 1 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |

## The Kriged ResidualsCerro Grande Fire Site

## Future Work

- CoKriging
- “multivariate Kriging” using spatial *cross-*correlation structure between residuals and input variables
- Incorporation of new datasets
- MODIS time-series data
- NOAA precipitation data
- SRTM for Digital Elevation Models
- Currently defining a large-scale problem
- Cheat grass on state or national level

## Summary

- Implemented MPI version of Kriging
- Nearly linear scaling
- ~31x speedup on 32 processor Beowulf cluster
- Performance improvements allow expanded ISFS
- Test different models
- More data
- More sites