# Presentation: 482060

## TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS FOR ENTIRE MANKIND A challenge for renewable energies 

- Hartmut Graßl
- Former Chair of the German Advisory Council on Global Change and Director at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

-    Annual GLOBE Conference, 4th of August 2005
- Prague, Czech Republic

## Climate change impacts on ecosystems

## IPCC-Projections of mean global warming in 
2100: 1.4-5.8 °C
(depending on human behaviour)

- 2100: 1.4-5.8 °C
- (depending on human behaviour)

- First Major challenge: Climate ChangeWBGU: Tolerable Window

- Emission reduction needed
- by 2050:
- At least 30% globally
- Industrialised countries: 80%

## The WBGU guard rail (1)

- An increase of global mean temperature by more than 2°C must be avoided
- Global mean temperature increased already by 0.7°C since industrialization and we are already committed to more

## Long-term scenarios

- Basis for WBGU exemplary path:
- A1T-450-scenario (IPCC-Post-SRES-scenario, using
- IIASA ́s MESSAGE-Model)
- 	**A**	high economic growth
- 	**1**	economic and social convergence, globalisation
- 		         cooperation between regions
- 	**T**	dynamical technological development
- 		         towards non-fossil energy sources
- 	**450**	CO2-stabilisation concentration in ppmv

## Tolerable Window and Climate Sensitivity

- 450ppm CO2 path (until 2100)
- Different values of climate
- sensitivity for a doubling of CO2 concentration

## Necessary reduction targets

- Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 45-60% up to 2050 (compared to 1990)
- Annex I countries: emissions reduction by at least 20% until 2020
- If these targets are not met, a dangerous interference with the climate system cannot be avoided in the 21st century

## 
WBGU: 1.6% p.a. 
(historically: 1%)
is equivalent to
productivity
increase by a
„Factor 3“
until 2050

- WBGU: 1.6% p.a.
- (historically: 1%)
- is equivalent to
- productivity
- increase by a
- „Factor 3“
- until 2050

- WBGU Exemplary path: Increased Energy Productivity

- WBGU Exemplary Path: Global Energy Mix

## Characteristics of WBGU exemplary path:

- Increased energy productivity
- Phase-out of non-sustainable energy sources
- Phase-in of renewable energy: 20% by 2020, 50%
- by 2050, 85% by 2100
- Intermediate CO2 storage necessary

## Primary energy use in IIASA-WBGU scenarios

- * including WBGU guardrails

## Areas needed for solar electricity2050

- The squares represent the surface areas that would be needed to produce the solar power assumed in the exemplary path for the year 2050. (a) Areas required for North America, assuming generation in Texas (100 per cent in solar power plants). (b) Areas required for Western Europe, whereby two-thirds of the solar power are generated in central Europe and one-third in the Sahara.

## Emission entitlements for Contraction and Convergence in 2050

- NAM – North America (USA, Canada), WEU – Western Europe (incl.Turkey), PAO – Pacific OECD (Japan, NZ,Australia), EEU – Central and Eastern Europe, FSU – Newly independent states of the former Soviet Union, CPA – Centrally planned Asia and China, SAS – South Asia (incl. India), PAS – Other Pacific Asia, LAM – Latin America and the Carribean, MEA – Middle East, AFR – Sub-Saharan Africa

## Costs

- Cumulative energy system costs, SRES and Post-SRES-scenarios
- Source: Riahi und Roehrl, 2000

- AFR – Sub-Saharan Africa, CPA – Centrally planned Asia and China, EEU – Central and Eastern Europe, FSU – Newly independent states of the former Soviet Union, LAM – Latin America and the Carribean, MEA – Middle East, NAM – North America (USA, Canada), PAO – Pacific, PAS – Other Pacific Asia, SAS – South Asia (incl. India), WEU – Western Europe (incl.Turkey).

- Effects of Mitigation on GDP

## Prerequisites for asuccessful climate protection policy

- Integration of all countries
- Coherence of environment and development policy
- Development of the South
- Technology transfer
- Access of developing countries to world market

## Prevention of a dangerous interference with the climate system

-  Guard rails have to be taken into account
-  Landmark decisions have to be taken now
-  Every delay reduces coping capacities
-  The Kyoto Protocol is just a first step

## Second Major Challenge: Sustainable Development

- 2 billion people live in energy poverty
- Access to modern energy services condition for development
- 1.6 millions die every year due to traditional biomass burning

- Source: IEA

**Notes:**
More people die due to burning of biomass than of malaria
Graph: (source: IEA): numbers of people without electricity / depending on traditional biomass for cooking and heating

## Traditional Cooking (Burkina Faso)

## Fuel Wood for Ouagadougou

## The WBGU guard rail (2)

- Meeting of individual requirements for energy
- Limiting the proportion of income spent for energy
- Preventing disease caused by energy use
- Access to advanced energy for all

**Notes:**
Nachhaltige Flächennutzung: 10-20% der weltweiten Landfläche Naturschutz. Nicht mehr als 3% für Bioenergie/CO2-Speicherung.
Flüsse: 10-20% Flussökosysteme Naturschutz
Meeresökosysteme: keine Sequestrierung!Mindestbedarf: 2020 500 kWh, 2050: 700 kWh, 2100: 1000kWh
Ausgaben: Begrenzung auf 10% des Einkommens
Mindestenergiebedarf vo: 3000 US$
Risiken im Normalbereich - Kernenergie
Erkrankungen verhindern: Gesundheitsbelastung durch Innenraumverschm: nicht mehr als 0,5%ges. Gesundheitsbelastung

## WBGU transformation strategy (Part 1)

- Improving energy productivity (factor 3 by 2050):
- - Key tool: Ecological financial reforms (tax reforms, phase-out of subsidies)
- - EU: 20% of electricity by 2012 from co-generation, binding national targets
- - Improved information of end users (mandatory labelling)
- - Standards (buildings, international minimum efficiencies for power plants)

## WBGU transformation strategy (Part 2)

- Eradicating energy poverty by focussing
- international cooperation on
- sustainable development
- - Implement new World Bank Policy in practice
- - Integrate sustainable energy supply within poverty reduction
-   strategies (PRSP)
- - Strengthen role of regional development banks
- - New GEF window for sustainable energy systems

## Mobilizing financial resources for the energy transition

- WBGU transformation strategy (Part 3)

*Private sector capital :*
- Public-Private-Partnerships
- German and EU CDM-Standard

*Public sector capital: *
- Raising level of German ODA to at least 0.5% of GDP by 2010
- Strengthen GEF as financial institution

*Innovative financial tools: *
- charge the use of global commons, e.g. emissions-based user charge on international aviation

## 
Model projects for strategic leverage

- Model projects for strategic leverage

- WBGU transformation strategy (Part 4)

*Model projects - examples*
- Substitution of traditional biomass use by biogenic bottled gas
- Energy-efficient buildings in the low-cost sector (South African townships)
- „One-million-huts electrification programme“ for DC (off-grid)

*Energy partnerships*
- Strategic energy partnership, e.g. between EU and North Africa

## 
Advancing Research and Development

- Advancing Research and Development

- WBGU transformation strategy (Part 5)

*Increase government expenditure for energy research *
- Ten-fold by 2020 (OECD)

*International cooperation*
- UN: World Energy Research Cooperation Programme (WERCP)
- 	(in analogy to World Climate Research Programme)

## Main Conclusions

- A sustainable energy system for entire mankind can be financed as it is much less costly than adaptation costs in a world without climate protection policy
- It provides a peace dividend as all can have their own energy supply system
- It needs multilaterism and the EU as its main promoter

## The full reports are available as download under: www.wbgu.de