# Presentation: 301563

## CLIMATE PREDICTION USE FOR LOCAL FIRE AND FOREST MANAGEMENT

- How to make the big picture fit into the little (local) picture....

## CLIMATE INFORMATION APPLICABLE TO LOCAL FIRE MANAGEMENT: WHAT’S IMPORTANT?

- When does fire season start?
- When does fire season end?
- How bad will fire season be?
- When will the peak of fire season be?
- How many resources will we need?
- When will we see relief (from the fires)?

## CLIMATE INFORMATION APPLICABLE TO LOCAL FIRE MANAGEMENT: WHAT’S IMPORTANT?

- WHEN DOES FIRE SEASON START?
- WHEN DOES FIRE SEASON END?

## Slide 4

**Notes:**
SEPTEMBER 2004 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

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## CLIMATE INFORMATION APPLICABLE TO LOCAL FIRE MANAGEMENT: WHAT’S IMPORTANT?

- HOW BAD WILL FIRE SEASON BE?
- WHEN WILL THE PEAK OF FIRE SEASON BE?

## Slide 7

## BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK  NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing   CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS  THE MOST RECENT WEEKLY MEAN SHOWS THAT SSTS ARE MORE THAN 1 C ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 165E TO 120W.    PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS  A CONSOLIDATION FORECAST OF IN-HOUSE TOOLS INDICATES THAT NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES WILL RISE FROM THE JULY AVERAGE OF ABOUT +.6 C TO JUST UNDER +1 C BY EARLY FALL AND REMAIN STEADY FOR MOST OF THE WINTER SEASON BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING IN SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS OF 2005.  ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FROM THE NEW CFS MODEL... AND STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS FROM CCA... CA... AND THE MKV MODEL PREDICT THE NINO 3.4 SSTS ANOMALIES IN AN ENVELOPE BETWEEN 0. AND +2. DEGREES C... WITH THE MAJORITY BETWEEN +.4 C AND +1.2 C.  MOST MODELS PREDICT THE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN DJF 2004/05 TO BE RESTRICTED TO A RELATIVE NARROW AREA MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.  THE MAJORITY OF MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS TO EXTEND TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST BY DJF... ALTHOUGH NONE PREDICT THE EXTENSIVE AREAS OF ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE PACIFIC NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM EVENTS.   PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK  THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON INDICATIONS FROM AN ASSORTMENT OF STATISTICAL TOOLS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.  EL NINO COMPOSITES BASED ON MODERATE AND STRONG EVENTS... MODIFIED BY COMPOSITES FOR WEAK WARM EVENTS... WERE CONSULTED FROM OND 2004 TO MAM 2005.  A TWO-TIER FORECASTING SYSTEM BASED ON SIX MODELS PROVIDED BY CDC WAS CONSULTED... ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES FROM IRI AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM NCEPS ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER PROVIDED INPUT THROUGH DJF 2004/05.  THE NEW CFS MODEL WHICH WILL BECOME OPERATIONAL ON AUGUST 24 2004 PROVIDES FORECASTS THROUGH FMA 2005. CCA... OCN AND SMLR GUIDANCE WERE CONSULTED FOR ALL LEAD TIMES.  ANY EL NINO IMPACTS WILL DEPEND CRITICALLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SSTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE COUPLING BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERE AND SST ANOMALIES.  THE LOW PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE OUTLOOKS... PARTICULARLY FOR PRECIPITATION... SHOW REGIONS WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ENSO IMPACTS.  IN SUBSEQUENT MONTHS THESE PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REVISED TO REFLECT THE EVOLUTION OF THE SSTS AND WHETHER THEY MAKE IT MORE OR LESS LIKELY FOR ENSO RELATED IMPACTS.   . . . . . . . .  PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - SON 2004 TO SON 2005  TEMPERATURE:  FOR SON 2004 THE IRI MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND ALASKA... BUT WITH CONTRADICTIONS FROM THE CFS MODEL THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED MOSTLY TO COASTAL REGIONS WHERE ADJACENT SSTS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE NORMAL.  OCN INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR SON 2004. AS THE SEASONS PROGRESS TOWARDS WINTER... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND SPREAD EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN AGREES WITH CFS MODEL AND ENSO COMPOSITES.  THE CFS MODEL PREDICTS NOTABLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FMA 2005.  THESE ARE SUPPORTED BY WEAK EL NINO COMPOSITES AND FORM THE BASIS OF A SUBSTANTIAL REVISION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FROM LAST MONTHS OUTLOOK.  HOWEVER... 

- BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOK  NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing   CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS  THE MOST RECENT WEEKLY MEAN SHOWS THAT SSTS ARE MORE THAN 1 C ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 165E TO 120W.    PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS  A CONSOLIDATION FORECAST OF IN-HOUSE TOOLS INDICATES THAT NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES WILL RISE FROM THE JULY AVERAGE OF ABOUT +.6 C TO JUST UNDER +1 C BY EARLY FALL AND REMAIN STEADY FOR MOST OF THE WINTER SEASON BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING IN SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS OF 2005.  ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FROM THE NEW CFS MODEL... AND STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS FROM CCA... CA... AND THE MKV MODEL PREDICT THE NINO 3.4 SSTS ANOMALIES IN AN ENVELOPE BETWEEN 0. AND +2. DEGREES C... WITH THE MAJORITY BETWEEN +.4 C AND +1.2 C.  MOST MODELS PREDICT THE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN DJF 2004/05 TO BE RESTRICTED TO A RELATIVE NARROW AREA MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.  THE MAJORITY OF MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS TO EXTEND TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST BY DJF... ALTHOUGH NONE PREDICT THE EXTENSIVE AREAS OF ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE PACIFIC NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM EVENTS.   PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK  THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON INDICATIONS FROM AN ASSORTMENT OF STATISTICAL TOOLS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.  EL NINO COMPOSITES BASED ON MODERATE AND STRONG EVENTS... MODIFIED BY COMPOSITES FOR WEAK WARM EVENTS... WERE CONSULTED FROM OND 2004 TO MAM 2005.  A TWO-TIER FORECASTING SYSTEM BASED ON SIX MODELS PROVIDED BY CDC WAS CONSULTED... ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES FROM IRI AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM NCEPS ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER PROVIDED INPUT THROUGH DJF 2004/05.  THE NEW CFS MODEL WHICH WILL BECOME OPERATIONAL ON AUGUST 24 2004 PROVIDES FORECASTS THROUGH FMA 2005. CCA... OCN AND SMLR GUIDANCE WERE CONSULTED FOR ALL LEAD TIMES.  ANY EL NINO IMPACTS WILL DEPEND CRITICALLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SSTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE COUPLING BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERE AND SST ANOMALIES.  THE LOW PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE OUTLOOKS... PARTICULARLY FOR PRECIPITATION... SHOW REGIONS WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ENSO IMPACTS.  IN SUBSEQUENT MONTHS THESE PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REVISED TO REFLECT THE EVOLUTION OF THE SSTS AND WHETHER THEY MAKE IT MORE OR LESS LIKELY FOR ENSO RELATED IMPACTS.   . . . . . . . .  PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - SON 2004 TO SON 2005  TEMPERATURE:  FOR SON 2004 THE IRI MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND ALASKA... BUT WITH CONTRADICTIONS FROM THE CFS MODEL THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE CONFINED MOSTLY TO COASTAL REGIONS WHERE ADJACENT SSTS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE NORMAL.  OCN INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR SON 2004. AS THE SEASONS PROGRESS TOWARDS WINTER... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AND SPREAD EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN AGREES WITH CFS MODEL AND ENSO COMPOSITES.  THE CFS MODEL PREDICTS NOTABLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FMA 2005.  THESE ARE SUPPORTED BY WEAK EL NINO COMPOSITES AND FORM THE BASIS OF A SUBSTANTIAL REVISION OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FROM LAST MONTHS OUTLOOK.  HOWEVER...

## Slide 9

## Token Fire Picture – 

**Token Fire Picture – **
**To Make Sure Everyone’s Awake!!**

## CLIMATE INFORMATION APPLICABLE TO LOCAL FIRE MANAGEMENT: WHAT’S IMPORTANT?

- HOW MANY RESOURCES WILL WE NEED?
- WHEN WILL WE SEE RELIEF (from the fires)?

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##  CLIMATE INFORMATION APPLICABLE TO LOCAL FOREST MANAGEMENT: WHAT’S IMPORTANT? 

- How will the weather affect field season?
- How will the weather affect my prescribed fires?
- When will it stop snowing?
- When will it start snowing?

## CLIMATE INFORMATION APPLICABLE TO LOCAL FOREST MANAGEMENT: WHAT’S IMPORTANT?

- HOW WILL THE WEATHER AFFECT FIELD SEASON?
- HOW WILL THE WEATHER AFFECT MY PRESCRIBED FIRES?

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## CLIMATE INFORMATION APPLICABLE TO LOCAL FOREST MANAGEMENT: WHAT’S IMPORTANT?

- WHEN WILL IT STOP SNOWING?
- WHEN WILL IT START SNOWING?

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## Project Purpose

**Project Purpose**
**Create sustainable **
**forest conditions ...  resilient to fire, insects and diseases; **

**How? **
**Remove excessive vegetation ... through thinning, prescribed fire and other treatment methods.**

## USFS Potential Vegetation Treatments

- Mechanical Treatments
- Manual Treatments
- Debris Burns

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