# Presentation: 243249

## Ocean Ecosystem 

-  Busalacchi, R. Murtugudde

- Ocean Ecosystem
- Technology and Partnerships

## By way of reminder:

**   ****In its former life, NCEP was known as the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The “National Center for Environmental Prediction” was coined in 1995 after Dr. R. McPherson, Director at the time,  determined that NOAA required an operational forecast and products unit with a name that was ‘extensible’ in keeping with its mission.**** **
**NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction as its name and mission statement implies strive to perform truly environmental prediction beyond weather prediction to include water, oceans, and ecosystems. **

## NCEP Mission Statement

-    	NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world.   NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

**Space Environment Center**

** ****Storm Prediction Center**

**Aviation Weather Center**

**NCEP Central Operations           ****Climate Prediction Center****              Environmental Modeling Center       Hydrometeorological Prediction Center           Ocean Prediction Center**

**Tropical Prediction**
** ****Center**

**NCEP Strategic Vision**
**Striving to be America’s **
**first choice, first alert and preferred partner **
**for ****climate, weather and ocean prediction services.**

## THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

**THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED**

**Climate **
**Community**

**Research &**
**Development **

**NOAA **
**Climate**
**Forecast**
**Operations**

_**Mission:**_** ****to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.**
**Long-term plans for advanced forecast capabilities (e.g. ****ecosystems; air chemistry; carbon cycle; fisheries****)**

**Notes:**
Key information gaps:

- Influence of land surface properties (e.g., soil moisture, snow, vegetation,  topography)

- Impact of global ocean conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature, sea ice, salinity, currents)

- Variability of climate modes (e.g., MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, interdecadal variations)

- Understanding the warm season climate system and its predictability

## Challenges

- Implementing across multiple line organizations/matrix management
- Interdisciplinary Funding
- Dedicated Eco Testbed
- Observational requirements both in situ and space based
- OSSEs
- Reanalyses

## Challenges

- Critical mass of in house expertise in collaboration with external community
- Realistic assessment of computing and storage/access requirements
- Human dimension component; similar to LULCC, modeling human interactions and impacts on coastal ecosystems
- Watershed land-use scenarios and regional climate change projections
- International collaboration

## Challenges

- Within the context of the Earth System Science Partnerships: Water, Carbon, Food, and Health are being brought together within the context of climate change
- Parallel here for ocean ecosystems
- Ocean RISAs

## RISA’s are...

*Spreading to regions that can benefit from improved climate decision-support...*

*RISA’s are...*

## Slide 11

## October 22-23 Plenary Speakers

- www.climateneeds.umd.edu

**Norman Augustine, former CEO of Lockheed Martin**
**R. James Woolsey, former Director of Central Intelligence Agency**
**James Mahoney, former Director, Climate Change Science Program**
**Gregory Hobbs, Justice of Colorado Supreme Court**
** **
**Bryan Hannegan, Vice President of Electric Power Research Institute**
**Cristina Rumbaitis del Rio, Rockefeller Foundation**
**Amr ElSawy, Incoming President, Noblis Inc.**
**Bob Ryan, NBC meteorologist and former President of AMS**
**Joseph Tydings,  U.S. Senator from Maryland 1965-1971**

## Monday Oct. 22 

- Morning Panels

_**Insurance/investment**_
**	**
**F. Nutter/President, Reinsurance Assoc Amer.**
**R. Flynn/Travelers**
**R. Tyler/Maryland Insurance Commissioner**
**Larry Johnson/Allstate**
**L. Gritzo/FM Global**
**S. Steinmetz/Fireman’s Fund**

_**Agriculture**_
**Carolyn Olson/USDA**
**Toby Halkovich/Cakebread Cellars**
**Ghassem Asrar/USDA**
**Charles Walthall/USDA**
**Jim Nugent/Michigan State Univ. Extension**

_**Terrestrial Ecosystems**_
**	**
**Fred Norbury/National Forest Service**
**James Rattling Leaf/Rep. Native Lands**
**Lara Hansen/World Wildlife Fund**
**John Musinsky/Conservation International**

_**Parks & Recreation**_
**Julie Thomas/National Park Service**
**William Maloney/Am. Society of Travel Agents**
**Mark Wenzler/Natl Parks & Conservation Assn**

## Monday Oct. 22

- Afternoon Panels

_**Energy**_
**	****	****	**
**Ray Keane/Timmons Design Engineering**
**Steve Heins/Orion Energy Systems**
**Jeff Harris/Alliance to Save Energy**
**Michael Eckhart/Amer Council on **
**	****Renewable Energy**
**Armin Rosencrantz/Stanford**

_**State/Local/Municipal**_
**Cynthia Rosenzweig/NASA**
**Doug Duncan/former County Executive **
**	****Montgomery County**
**Doug Erickson/Amer Hosp Assoc**
**George Nichols/Metro Washington**
**                       ****Council of Govts**

_**National Security**_** **
**	****	****	**
**Richard Engel/Natl Intelligence Council****	****	**
**Gary Geernaert/Los Alamos Natl Laboratory**
**Linda Wennerberg/NASA**
**Lawrence Farrell/Natl Defense Industrial Assn**
**Robert Brammer/Northrop Grumman****	**

_**Coastal/Marine Ecosystems**_
**Barry Stamey/Noblis Inc.**
**Beth McGee/Ches. Bay Foundation**
**Richard Beamish/Amer Fisheries Society**
**Lori Arguelles/Natl Marine Sanctuary Fdn**
**Spokesman/Coastal States Organization**

## Tuesday Oct. 23

- Morning Panels

_**Water**_**	**
**	****	****	**
**Gerry Galloway/UMD****	****	****	**
**Jeanine Jones/Calif Dept **
**	****Water Resources**
**Michael Shapiro/EPA**
**John Promise/No Central Texas COG**
**Eugene Stakhiv/US Army **
**	****Corps of Engineers****	**

_**Commerce & Manufacturing**_
**Randy Overbey, former exec. Alcoa**
**John Carberry/Dupont**
**Jon Malay/Lockheed Martin**
**Dave Crowe/National Assn of Home Builders**

_**Human Health**_
**	****	**
**Georges Benjamin/President, Amer Public **
**	****Health Assn**
**Dennis Lang/Natl Inst of Environ. **
**	****Health Sciences**
**Lynn Goldman/Johns Hopkins Univ.****	**

_**Transportation**_
**Howard Aylesworth/Aerospace Industries **
**	****Assn**
**Rob Lempert/RAND Corp.**
**John Porcari/MD Secy of Transportation**
**Joanne Potter/Cambridge Systematics**
**Burr Stewart/Seattle Port Authority **
**Rob Padgette/Amer Public Trans Assn**

## The needs for coping with climate variability and adapting to climate change, therefore represent a real and emerging challenge to the Nation

The deliverance of climate observations and services involves the transition across basic research, applied research, operations, applications, and engagement with the user community

Most of the effort to date has been focused on the physical climate system and not product driven

However, climate impacts and services involve business, finance, agriculture, engineering, public health, public policy, etc.

No single agency covers this spectrum, hence the need for an enterprise or partnership approach(es)

- The deliverance of climate observations and services involves the transition across basic research, applied research, operations, applications, **and** engagement with the user community
- Most of the effort to date has been focused on the physical climate system and not product driven
- However, climate impacts and services involve business, finance, agriculture, engineering, public health, public policy, etc.
- No single agency covers this spectrum, hence the need for an enterprise or partnership approach(es)

- Need for Regional/Watershed/Local Focus
- Supercomputing implications
- Need for national strategy
- Necessary but not sufficient

- Emphasis on “Second Derivative”: Importance of extremes, abrupt change, surprises, mix of time scales

- Climate Impacts  Climate Consequences
- Sustainability  Resilience
- Need for Integrated Approach, system perspective, consideration of multiple stressors
- Climate model  Business “model”
- Need to entrain business and finance schools with focus on specific problems

- Need for integrated climate information
- Accessible to diverse user groups
- Continuity of services
- NCDC, PCMDI, NIDIS
- Need a National Climate Information Clearinghouse

- The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, exceeding the scope of natural climate variability.
- A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to this certainty of climate variability and change in the next half century (this question is apart from the issue of mitigation).
- In response, NOAA is considering how comprehensive climate services would best inform decisions about adaptation.
- Similarly, NASA is considering the optimal configuration of the next generation of Earth, environmental, and climate observations to be deployed over the coming 10-20 years.
- Moreover, much of the added-value information for specific climate-related decisions will be provided by private, academic and non-governmental organizations.

## The needs for coping with climate variability and adapting to climate change, therefore represent a real and emerging challenge to the Nation

The deliverance of climate observations and services involves the transition across basic research, applied research, operations, applications, and engagement with the user community

Most of the effort to date has been focused on the physical climate system and not product driven

However, climate impacts and services involve business, finance, agriculture, engineering, public health, public policy, etc.

No single agency covers this spectrum, hence the need for an enterprise or partnership approach(es)

- The deliverance of climate observations and services involves the transition across basic research, applied research, operations, applications, **and** engagement with the user community
- Most of the effort to date has been focused on the physical climate system and not product driven
- However, climate impacts and services involve business, finance, agriculture, engineering, public health, public policy, etc.
- No single agency covers this spectrum, hence the need for an enterprise or partnership approach(es)

## What new commercial opportunities will open in response to climate change? 
As a result of increased temperature extremes, what new products, such as high-grade insulation, will be required in building construction? 
What are the expected population shifts in response to climate change? 
What aspects of climate change will have the most rapid and visible impact on public attitudes, and which will be most likely to prompt stringent government regulation?

What will be the changes in type and location of pest populations? 
What emerging infectious diseases will be induced by a changing climate? 

What specifications will be required for future seed design as a result of climate change?

- As a result of increased temperature extremes, what new products, such as high-grade insulation, will be required in building construction?
- What are the expected population shifts in response to climate change?
- What aspects of climate change will have the most rapid and visible impact on public attitudes, and which will be most likely to prompt stringent government regulation?
- What will be the changes in type and location of pest populations?
- What emerging infectious diseases will be induced by a changing climate?
- What specifications will be required for future seed design as a result of climate change?

## Questions to Speakers and Panelists:

**Questions to Speakers and Panelists:**
- How would you characterize the exposure or vulnerability to climate variability or change impacting your organization?
- Does climate variability and/or change currently factor into your organization's objectives or operations?
- Are any of your existing plans being affected by climate or projections of climate change?  If yes, can you provide specific case information?
- Is your organization developing a plan for adapting to climate change?
- What are your needs for climate observations, predictions, and services?
- Please cite one or more specific examples when possible.
- Do you currently have access to the climate information your organization needs?
- What next steps are needed to assure effective use of climate services in your decision making?

## Model Requirements

- CFS  WRF
- Daily
- ~ 10s kms
- T, U, V, Precip, runoff, soil moisture, soil temp, nutrient loading