# Presentation: 792449

## Advanced Hurricane Prediction

**A plan for research and development                                                                                                                                **

**Naomi Surgi**
**February, 2005**

## Requirements Process 

- Societal Impacts:
- More people living along coastal areas – takes longer to evacuate
- Evacuations are costly:  ~$1M per mile of coastline evacuated
- Evacuation numbers depend on hurricane size and intensity
- More hurricane related fatalities now due to inland flooding

## Stakeholder Requirements

- Improved track forecast skill – where and when?
- Extend track forecasts out to 5 days
- Improved  hurricane intensity forecasts
- intensity at landfall – how strong?
- onset of gale force winds at coastline (structure) – how big & when?
- Skillful heavy rainfall forecasts out to 3 days in advance

## Operational TC Forecast Issues:

- Improved TC intensity prediction (genesis and rapid intensification)
- Improved prediction of TC surface wind distribution (structure)
- Improved rainfall forecasts
- TC waves, storm surge

**Operational TC Forecast Issues:**

## TPC Atlantic 72-hr Track Forecast Errors

**TPC Atlantic 72-hr Track Forecast Errors**

- With the exception of “erratically” moving storms, while hurricane track prediction has shown remarkable progress, **skill in predicting intensity/ structure changes is still poor**. **It is expected that high resolution, advanced  NWP modeling systems may continue to improve track  as well as intensity, structure  predictions**.  Hurricane WRF is the next step towards this goal.

## Slide 6

## Lowest track errors on record  for GFS, GFDL models and TPC!

## How NOAA Improved Track Forecasts 

**HIGH QUALITY OBSERVATIONS**** **(large scale environment surrounding hurricane, e.g. satellite, aircraft)
**MADE BETTER USE OF OBSERVATIONS IN  HURRICANE MODELS ** (advances in data assimilation)
**IMPROVED HURRICANE MODELS**** **(improved numerical techniques and representation of physical  processes)

- Three components of modeling system:

## Advanced Data Platforms for Hurricanes

**Environment: **(Winds, Moisture, Temperature) – to define steering currents
**Satellite:****	****Advanced Satellite Instruments **
**(AMSU, GOES, NPOESS etc.) **
**In-situ:****	****Aircraft  (dropsondes)**

## NCEP Global Forecast System 6 hr Forecast and WV Imagery

## Jung and 

**Zapotocny**
**JCSDA**
**Funded by **
**NPOESS IPO**

**Satellite data **
**~ 10-15% impact**

## Synoptic Surveillance Pattern

## Impact Of Dropsondes On NCEP Global Model Track  Forecasts

**Note:  Improved skill at all forecast times in 2002 and 2003**

**Impact Of Dropsondes On NCEP Global Model Track  Forecasts**

## Intensity Guidance

**Most skill**

## Charley deepened 

**Charley deepened **
**From 964 mb to 941 mb**
**in 4 h 35 min near**
**landfall – NIGHTMARE!**

## Science Issues to address Intensity/Structure

**  ****ENVIRONMENTAL FORCING**
-  “good vs. bad” trough interactions
-  SST changes (including ocean subsurface)
**  ****CONVECTIVE SCALE PROCESSES**
-   total rainfall – organization of convection, eyewall vs. 	Stratiform
**  ****MICROPHYSICS**** ****– LIQUID VS. ICE **
**  ****INNER CORE REGION**
- scale interaction – feedback between vortex dynamics, convective physics and environment
- triggering and adjustment processes – eyewall 	replacement cycles, eyewall mixing

**Science Issues to address Intensity/Structure**

## Science Issues – con’t

**AIR SEA INTERACTION:  OCEANIC/ATMOSPHERE BOUNDARY LAYER)**
- Air sea fluxes under disturbed conditions (sea spray)
- Turbulence and subgrid scale mixing
- Coupled atm/ocean model; coupled wind-wave model
**UPPER OCEAN PROCESSES**
- SST changes – depth of warm layer (accounts for turbulent        mixing, horizontal advection)  e.g. Gulf Stream and loop currents, warm core eddies, cold wakes
**LAND SURFACE PROCESSES**
- PBL fluxes – storm structure --  coupling to hydrologic processes

**Science Issues – con’t**

## To advance TRACK forecasts AND improve INTENSITY, STRUCTURE and RAIN Forecasts:

- Need high quality hurricane core***** and environmental **observations**
- Need **advanced data assimilation techniques** for environment and hurricane core
- Need **advanced modeling system**
- Need a “disciplined” approach for **transition from research to operations**, e.g. JHT, JCSDA

***** critical observations for intensity/structure and rain problem

## Advanced Observation Platforms for Hurricanes

**Environment** (Winds, Moisture, Temp.)
- In-situ:     G-IV, UAV’s, Driftsondes
- Satellite:   ADVANCED MICROWAVE INSTRUMENTS
**Hurricane Core** (Winds from 12 km to surface)
- G-IV, WP-3D airborne Doppler radars
- 88-D Level II data
**Upper** **Ocean** (SST’s, wave height, mixed layer info)
- AXBTs, Altimeter,  ARGOS, Current Meter, Buoys

## Required Data Assimilation Development

**Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques**
- Environmental flow –   in progress (some success)
- Hurricane Interior  -    substantial R&D necessary*
- Ocean data assimilation – new effort (GODAS)
- * EMC is developing scale-dependent covariances

## Hurricane  WRF (HWRF) Prediction  System

**Hurricane  WRF (HWRF) Prediction  System**
- Community based next generation hurricane                 prediction system
- Will replace the GFDL in 2007
- Coupled air-sea-land prediction system
- Advanced data assimilation for hurricane vortex
- Advanced physics for high resolution
- Land surface coupled to hydrology/inundation
- Nested wave prediction
- Coupling to dynamic storm surge  (in planning)

## TRANSITIONING TO HURRICANE WRF

**MM5**

**02**	**03**	**04****	****05****	****06****	****07**

**Begin Physics Upgrades**

**Mesoscale Data Assimilation for Hurricane Core**

**  **

**Preliminary Test                        HWRF physics **

**HWRF**
**T&E**

**HWRF**

**HWRF**** Operational**

**GFDL frozen**
**HWRF T&E**

**TRANSITIONING TO HURRICANE WRF**

**Begin R&D**

**Transition to     HWRF**

**Continue     upgrades**

## Pre-Implementation Strategy for  HWRF

- <date/time>

**Pre-Implementation Strategy for  HWRF**
**INCREASE RESOLUTION**
**UPGRADE GFDL PHYSICS WITH GFS PHYSICS**
**IMPLEMENT MICROPHYSICS,  SFC. PHYSICS**
**PUT PHYSICS IN WRF FRAMEWORK**
**MIGRATE ALL PHYSICS TO NMM, e.g.  HWRF **
**CARRY OUT TEST & EVALUATION ON UPGRADED GFDL SYSTEM (GFDL FROZEN ’05-06)**
**PERFORM EXTENSIVE COMPARISONS BETWEEN GFDL AND HWRF FOR MULTIPLE SEASONS AND STORMS**

## DEVELOPMENT OF THE  HWRF SYSTEM

- <date/time>

**DEVELOPMENT OF THE  HWRF SYSTEM**
**Movable, nested grid   (configuration, domain)**
**Advancement of physics  (wheel of pain)**
**Initialization (development of DA for hurricane vortex)    ****(LONG TERM EFFORT)**
**Coupling to HYCOM  **
**Coupling to WAVEWATCH III  (+ multi-scale model)**
**Coupling to LSM  **
**Development/Upgrade of hurricane verification system  (PPT, STRUCTURE)**
**Coupling to storm surge-wave coupled model ****(planning stage)**
**HWRF ensembles**

## “THE PHYSICS WHEEL OF PAIN”

- Direct Physical
- Interaction of Clouds

**Radiation**

**Cu Scheme**

**Sfc & PBL**

**Grid Scale Microphysics**

**- Hydrometeor type (phase)**
**	****- Cloud optical properties**
**	****- Cloud overlap (merging ****  Cu, grid-scale cloudiness)**
**	****- Cloud fractions  **
**- Precipitation**
**- Sfc energy fluxes**
**4.   - Convection, PBL evolution,****   precipitation**

**Compliments of ****Dr. Jaiyu Zhou ****(NOAA/OST)**

## Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Coupled Models

**High resolution **
**Coastal, Bay & **
**Estuarine **
**hydrodynamic model**

_**HWRF**_

**Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer**

**HYCOM**
**3D ocean circulation**
**model**

**WAVEWATCH III**
**Spectral wave model**

**NOAH LSM**

**NOS**
**land and coastal waters**

**NCEP**
**Atmosphere and Ocean**

**runoff**

**fluxes**

- wave fluxes

-                    wave
-                  spectra

- winds
- air temp.

- SST
- currents

- elevations
-        currents
- 3D   salinities
-         temperatures

- other fluxes

**surge**
**inundation**

- radiative
- fluxes

## HYCOM Expt – Hurricane Isabel

**MODEL**:
- HYCOM Mercator North Atlantic 1/12 degrees (∆x ≈ 7 km).
- 26 vertical coordinates.
- Vertical viscosity and mixing:* GISS.*
**FORCING**: 6-h NCEP (GFS analysis).
**INITIAL CONDITIONS**:  from near-real time  North Atlantic system (NRL & RSMAS) (O.M. Smedstad).
**PERIOD**: Sept. 3-30, 2003

**Notes:**

Put here the region of analysis and mention that the two sings are different from NRF

## SSH and cross section positioning 

**∆****H~30 cm**

## Temperature cross sections for Sept 11, 15-21, 30

**Notes:**
What are they looking at at position 

## GFDL Coupled Model

**GFDL Coupled Model**

## C-BLAST  BUOYS  DURING FRANCES

**C-BLAST  BUOYS  DURING FRANCES**

## Hurricane Frances – impact of coupling

**Hurricane Frances – impact of coupling**

**Blue****-****	****GFDL operational coupled model**
**Red-****	****GFDL uncoupled model**

## The Future

- Deep ocean model resolution dictated by GFS model

- Higher coastal model resolution dictated by model economy

- Highest model resolution in areas of special interest

- Hurricane nests moving with storm(s) like GFDL and HWRF

## Technology Infusion

- Mission  Statement:
- The mission of the JHT is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, observational and model advances into improved tropical cyclone analyses and prediction at operational hurricane forecast centers.

**Technology Infusion**