# Presentation: 270961

## ZEV Mandates:Concerns & Potential Impacts

**David Hermance**
**Executive Engineer****Environmental Engineering**
**Toyota Technical Center, USA, Inc.**

## CA ZEV Mandate - History

**Adopted in 1990, a 6 sentence footnote to the LEV regulation**
**Modified in 1996 to eliminate the 98-02 requirement, <1 full page**
**Modified in 1998 as part of LEV2 with PZEVs, 6.5 pages as new reg**
**Overhauled in 2001, currently 20 pages**

## CA ZEV Mandate - Rqmts

**In 1990, 10% ZEV in 2003, with 2% from ‘98-’00 & 5% from ‘01-’02**
**In 1996, 10% ZEV in 2003, no ramp-up & ‘98-’00 MOAs**
**In 1998, 4% ZEV in 2003 + 6% PZEV & new credit structure**
**In 2001, 2% ZEV + 2% ATPZEV + 6% PZEV in 2003 & ramp-up credit**

## CA Volume Implications

**PC + LDT1 - ~1,000,000/yr**
**LDT2 - ~700,000/yr**
**LDT2 ramps into program '07-'12**
**ZEVs are 0.15-5 credits/vehicle **
**ATPZEVs are ~0.5 credits/vehicle, so 2% requires about 4% actual vehicles**
**PZEVs are 0.2 credits/vehicle, so 6% requires 30% actual vehicles**

## ZEV Review Process

**Manufacturers submit product plan**
**ARB visits each manufacturer**
**2 workshops**
**BTAP and other contractor reports**
**Staff report and public meeting**
**Staff proposal and Board Hearing**
**Staff modifications per Board**

## Staff Report (8/00)

**Actually a reasonably accurate, but optimistic assessment**
**Includes cost estimates and emissions benefits**
**But, does not calculate cost benefit ($1,800,000/ton)**
**Suggests a market exists, but not without huge subsidies**

## Battery Panel Assessment

**Again, a reasonably complete, but optimistic document**
**Says Ni-MH is the only viable technology for the next 6 or more years**
**Shows cost curves that never reach targets**
**Should be read as dooming EV **

## Board Direction (9/00)

**We have a vision, we want ZEVs**
**Directed staff to draft a regulation preserving the ZEV program**
**Meeting had a religious zeal much changed from historic ARB proceedings**

## Staff Recommended Changes (12/00)

**Major reductions in required volumes, new credits games**
**Accept Grid-HEV as a gold vehicle**
**Allow a phase-in for PZEVs**
**Boost EV % requirement in out-years**

## Board Action (1/25/01)

**Redefine the ZEV volume baseline by adding trucks (SUV guilt)**
**Move grid-HEV to Silver (bad gas)**
**Double the number of ZEVs from staff recommendation by 2009**
**Essentially requires a complete re-write of staff’s proposed regulation**

## Final ARB Action

**ARB issued three sets of changes to adopt the Board’s direction**
**Rational support of technical risk compromised to get more volume**
**Final package to OAL 12/8/01**
**OAL rejected 1/28/02 - procedural issues**
**ARB repairing, due soon**

## Other ZEV Programs

**Vermont is adopting the CA program starting in 2005**
**New York and Massachusetts have adopted CA program in 2005, but will accept an ACP beginning in 2004**
**New Jersey has introduced legislation**
**Others may follow**

## ZEV Vehicles - Gold

**Battery EV**
**Highway capable**
**City capable**
**Neighbor vehicles**
**Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles**

## Full Function EV

## RAV4-EV - Features

**4-door, 5-passenger SUV**
**NiMH batteries - ~29 kWh, 1000 pounds**
**Regenerative braking**
**High efficiency permanent magnet motor**
**78 mph top speed**
**80-100 miles real world range**
**$42,000 MSRP with charger**
**Favorable lease terms for 36, 48 or 60 months**
**5 year battery warranty**

## RAV4-EV Placements

**716 in CA, 949 nationwide**
**Mostly electric utilities and government fleets**
**Some units at >60,000 miles**
**Generally positive feedback from customers**
**Retail availability in CA 02/02**
**2002 available for sale or lease**

## Other Full Function EVs

**Ford plans limited availability of Ranger EV**
**No other announcements for 2002**

## City EVs

## 2-door, 2-passnger mini-car
Lead-acid batteries - 72 V
Regenerative braking
DC motor
62 mph top speed
50 mile range
US demonstrations with EU vehicles in 2001
$199/mo for 34 months during demo
4th quarter 2002 production availability

**(Ford) Th!nk City**

**2-door, 2-passnger mini-car**
**Lead-acid batteries - 72 V**
**Regenerative braking**
**DC motor**
**62 mph top speed**
**50 mile range**
**US demonstrations with EU vehicles in 2001**
**$199/mo for 34 months during demo**
**4th quarter 2002 production availability**

## Toyota e-com
103 worldwide, 15 in CA
Demonstrations only
Many demos include ITS
Ni-MH battery
No production plan
Nissan Hypermini
Demonstrations only
Many demos include ITS
Li-ion battery
No production plan

**Toyota e-com**
**103 worldwide, 15 in CA**
**Demonstrations only**
**Many demos include ITS**
**Ni-MH battery**
**No production plan**
**Nissan Hypermini**
**Demonstrations only**
**Many demos include ITS**
**Li-ion battery**
**No production plan**

**Other City EVs**

## NEVs (LSVs)

**NEVs (LSVs)**

## 2-passenger and 4-passenger
Lead-acid batteries - 72V
Regenerative braking
25 mph top speed
~7,000 total US sales
$6,995 - $8,995

**(DCX) GEM NEV**

**2-passenger and 4-passenger**
**Lead-acid batteries - 72V**
**Regenerative braking**
**25 mph top speed**
**~7,000 total US sales**
**$6,995 - $8,995**

## 2 and 4 passenger models
Lead-acid batteries - 72V
Regenerative braking
25 mph top speed
On sale 4th quarter 2001
$6,500 - $8,000

**(Ford) Th!nk Neighbor**

**2 and 4 passenger models**
**Lead-acid batteries - 72V**
**Regenerative braking**
**25 mph top speed**
**On sale 4th quarter 2001**
**$6,500 - $8,000**

## Dynasty
Lido
Bombardier

**Dynasty**
**Lido**
**Bombardier**

## Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles 

## PEM fuel cell - multiple manufacturers
Ballard
Toyota
Honda
IFC
GM
H2 storage options
Hydrogen absorbing alloy fuel storage
Cryogenic storage
Compressed gas storage

**PEM fuel cell - multiple manufacturers**
**Ballard**
**Toyota**
**Honda**
**IFC**
**GM**
**H2 storage options**
**Hydrogen absorbing alloy fuel storage**
**Cryogenic storage**
**Compressed gas storage**

## H2 FCV - Challenges

**FC Stack**
**power, efficiency, size, cost, durability..**
**Hydrogen Storage**
**capacity, weight, cost, durability..**
**FC System**
**efficiency, size, cost, durability, low temps...**
**Hydrogen Infrastructure**
**Regulation, Standardization**

## ATPZEV Vehicles - Silver

**CNG**
**Hybrids**
**Grid independent**
**Grid connected**
**Reformer Fuel Cells**

## ATPZEV Requirements

**SULEV tailpipe emissions (~90% below ULEV)**
**Zero fuel evaporative emissions**
**150,000 mile durability**
**150,000 mile warranty**
**Full OBD at 1.5*standard**
**Clean fuel or significant electric drive**

## CNG

## CNG Product Availability

**Honda Civic**
**Ford Crown Victoria**
**Ford F150 Pick-up**
**Dodge 2500 Van**

## Range of products
CNG storage at 3,000 - 3,600 psi
Generally lower range than gasoline
Issues with CNG refueling infrastructure
Mostly fleet vehicles
Demand is largely driven by EPAct
~$3,000 price premium
Certified as ILEV, HOV eligible

**Range of products**
**CNG storage at 3,000 - 3,600 psi**
**Generally lower range than gasoline**
**Issues with CNG refueling infrastructure**
**Mostly fleet vehicles**
**Demand is largely driven by EPAct**
**~$3,000 price premium**
**Certified as ILEV, HOV eligible**

## Hybrids

## HV Product Announcements

**Toyota Prius - On sale 12/97 (Japan), 7/00 (US)**
**Honda Insight - On sale 12/99**
**Nissan Tino - On sale 2000 (Japan) limited**
**Toyota Estima - On sale 6/01 (Japan)**
**Honda Civic - on sale 12/01 (Japan), 3/02 (US)**
**Ford Escape - 2003 CY**
**GM ParadiGM - 2004 MY (Not an ATPZEV)**
**Dodge Durango - 2004 MY **

## Prius and Insight Sales

_**Total US Actual Sales**_

** ****Insight****: ****8,514 units**

***Prius******:  ******21,118 units***

**Toyota Prius**

**Honda Insight**

## Prius Attributes

**52 mpg - City**
**45 mpg - Highway**
**SULEV**
**0-60 mph ~12.5 seconds**
**4-door, 5-passenger**
**More interior space than Corolla**
**Tight turning circle for city maneuvering**
**Higher seating position **
**8 year / 100,000 mile hybrid system warranty**
**$19,995 + shipping**

## Insight Attributes

**ULEV Manual Transmission**
**61 City**
**68 Highway**
**SULEV CVT**
**57 City**
**56 Highway**
**All Aluminum Body **
**3 year / 36,000 mile hybrid system warranty**
**$21,280 w/CVT and A/C**

## Reformer Fuel-Cell Vehicles 

## PZEV Vehicles - Bronze

**SULEV tailpipe emissions**
**Zero evaporative emissions**
**150,000 durability demonstration**
**150,000 mile warranty**
**Full OBD @ 1.5*standard**

## Gasoline PZEV

**Gasoline PZEV**

## PZEV Challenges

**SULEV tailpipe emissions**
**New catalysts, more precious metal**
**Cold start driveability issues**
**Zero evaporative emissions**
**New systems and materials**
**Packaging issues**
**150,000 durability demonstration**
**150,000 mile warranty**
**Possible cost increases**
**Full OBD @ 1.5*standard **
**Seriously diminishing returns**