# Presentation: 000719

## Welfare Returns and Temporary Time Limits

**Dr. Vicky Albert**
**UNLV School of Social Work **
**10****th**** Annual Welfare Research and Evaluation Conference**
**Washington D.C.**
**June 4, 07**
**vicky.albert @unlv.edu**
**(Prepared with King W. &**
** ****Iaci, R.)**

## Time Limits in Nevada

**Federal Time Limits (5 years) some exemptions**
**State Temporary Time Limits (TTL) after receiving  24 months of cash assistance (some hardship extensions)**
**Two “Sit Out” periods allowed, 12 months each**
**January 1998,  temporary time limit clock started ticking for all families **
**January 2000, first set of families left due to temporary time limits**
**Once sitting out, families may receive Medicaid indefinitely**

## Returning to TANF: Issues

- Returning more important now than before welfare reform: recipients are using more of their lifetime benefits
- Studies show re-entry rates vary by exit routes
- Re-entry rates following marriage or co-habitation are higher than those following work
- Re-entry rate following work is more rapid during the first six months after exit than rate following marriage
- Present study can identify exit reason due to reaching temporary time limits

## Study Questions

**For families with children who left TANF due to temporary time limits:**
**1.    How does risk of re-entry change over time? **
**How do personal characteristics of head of household or family characteristics affect the risk of re-entry? **
**To what extent do behaviors before reaching time limits, such as repeated spells, affect the risk of returning? **
**4.****	****To what extent do the appeal of the welfare system and economic conditions affect the risk of return? **

## Data 

**Employed monthly administrative data, April 1998 to June 2002**
**January 2000, first set of families left due to time limits**
**Individual monthly data made into family-level longitudinal records**
**Family-level data for over 40,000 families **
**No information about exit reasons, duration dependence, “sit outs” or hardship**
**No ****work-related information nor information about mental health or disability****     **

## Sample Selection Criteria

**Families who left after receiving TANF grants for at least 24 months with no closure dates received no grant and received Medicaid **
**Heads of households over age of 18 and under 60 **
**Family needed to remain off rolls for at least two months before considered a returnee  **

## Selected Sample Characteristics

**Disproportionate number of families left in beginning of study period**
**Followed 44% of the sample for at least 24 months after exit**
**Of 1,188 families who left due to time limits requirement, 6.9% (n = 91) returned for cash by the end of the study period **
**	**

|  | Returnees | Others |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Average Age  
Youngest Child |   4.31 |   5.47 |
| Family size 
3 or more |   44% |    31% |
| No of Spells prior to exit |   1.66 |    1.25 |
| African
American | 54% |   45% |
| Hispanic  |   9% |   12% |

## Patterns of Return

*Survival analysis* used to analyze patterns of return for cash assistance
- Estimates suggest that about 90% would not return
- 64% of those who eventually return do so during the first 3 months after the end of their sit out period
- 82% of those who eventually return do so within the first 6 months after the end of their sit out period

## Modeling Risk of Returning

- Cox proportional hazard model used covariates that were fixed at exit
- Number of spells prior to exit
- Age of youngest child
- Family size of 3 or 4
- Family size of 5 or more
- The covariates which were time varying
- Unemployment rate
- TANF maximum aid

## Key Findings

**A unemployment rate increases by 1%, all else constant, monthly risk of returning increases by 48 percent (Hazard Ratio = 1.48, **_**p**_** < .0001)**
**All else constant, with each additional spell prior to exit, monthly risk of returning increases by more than 140 percent (Hazard Ratio = 2.42, **_**p**_** < .0001)**
**All else constant, families with 3 or 4 members have more than five times the risk of returning (Hazard Ratio = 5.04, **_**p**_** < .05 )**
**TANF Maximum aid has virtually no impact on risk of returning (Hazard Ratio = 0.989, **_**p**_** < .05 )**
**As youngest child age increases by 1 year, family has 5% less risk of returning (Hazard Ratio = 0.946, **_**p**_** < .05 )**

## Summary and Implications

**Re-entry rate is low after sit out period is over than rates found in studies that examined returns after leaving due to earnings or due to other reasons**
**The strong impact of the economy on returns needs to be accounted for if adopting temporary time limit policies **
**A low return rate does not mean that families are not depending on Medicaid or in-kind benefits**
**A low return rates does not mean that families are thriving**
**Special attention and services should be paid to those with characteristics that are linked to an increase in the risk of return**

## Slide 12