# Presentation: 130733

## NOAA’s Contributions to the Aviation Community Regarding Volcanic Ash

**James R. Mahoney, Ph.D.**Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere
- Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program
- June 21, 2004

## NOAA’s Role in Volcanic Ash Hazards Mitigation

- Birth of the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs)
- VAAC Information Sources (Satellite & Non-Satellite)
- Volcanic Ash Information Dissemination
- Reventador Eruption:  Imagery & Sample Ash Products
- Example: Washington VAAC Activity in 2003
- Future Challenges

- “Classic” example of volcanic ash detection from AVHRR, evidence of a  hazardous ash cloud thousands of kilometers downwind from the volcano.         The cloud was “intact” several days after the main eruption

**Notes:**
NOAA is happy to participate in this International meeting of over 20 countries. The problem of Volcanic Ash & Aviation Safety is a significant Global issue. 
NOAA has been involved for quite some time in the detection & monitoring of volcanic ash - since at least 1980, when the Smithsonian Institution would call & ask for possible verification of eruption reports from NOAA satellite imagery for their Global Volcanism Network.  
The program became more formal in 1988 when the Federal Aviation Administration  asked NOAA-NESDIS to monitor, track & send informational statements of global volcanic activity for the purpose of Aviation Safety.  There was a Memorandum of Understanding signed by both agencies for the exchange of near real-time volcanic ash information. The U.S. Geological Survey was later incorporated into the process by a Letter of Agreement in the fall of 1993.

## International VAAC Boundaries

- Wellington

- Darwin

- 45

- 30

- 15

- 0

- 15

- 30

- 45

- 60

- 60

- 75

- 90

- 105

- 120

- 135

- 150

- 165

- 180

- 165

- 150

- 135

- 120

- 105

- 75

- 60

- 60

- 45

- 45

- 30

- 30

- 15

- 15

- 75

- 90

- Tokyo

- Washington

- Montreal

- London

- Anchorage

- Buenos
- Aires

- Toulouse

- 0

**Notes:**
By 1997 the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) divided the world’s airspace into nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC). NOAA has the responsibility for 2 VAAC’s, Anchorage, Alaska (managed by the National Weather Service) & Washington (a cooperative effort between NESDIS & NWS) 
Ash in the gray (“unassigned”) areas can be handled by any VAAC.

## Washington & Anchorage VAAC Customers

- Pacific NW WFOs

- Other U.S. government agencies including AWC, DoD (AFWA), FEMA

- ACCs FAA

- Other VAACs

- Airlines, Aviation community

- MWOs

- VAAC = Volcanic Ash Advisory Center
- MWO = Meteorological Watch Office
- WFO = Weather Forecast Office
- AWC = Aviation Weather Center
- FAA = Federal Aviation Administration

- DoD = Department of Defense
- AFWA = Air Force Weather Agency
- FEMA = Federal Emergency Management Agency
- ACC = Area Control Center

- Abbreviations:

**Notes:**
Another of NOAA’s role is the operation of 4 Meteorological Watch Offices or MWOs (Anchorage, Kansas City, Guam & Honolulu).  These offices issue the warnings to aircraft (SIGMETS- Significant Meteorological Statements) of airspace containing and/or forecast to contain volcanic ash. 
Yet another NOAA research organization- the Air Resources Laboratory has assisted the VAACs through the development & refinement of a numerical model for the forecasting of ash cloud motion over time.     
NOAA researchers have collaborated with both internal & external organizations & agencies in development of enhanced volcanic ash detection techniques. These techniques eventually migrate into VAAC environment where they are tested, evaluated & implemented into operations. 

## Satellite-Derived Sources of Information

- GOES, POES &
- Meteosat thermal IR

-  GOES & POES PCI (Principle Component Imagery)

-  GOES, POES
- Meteosat & MODIS Visible

- GOES, POES Multi-spectral
- Products

- TOMS SO2
- (NASA)

- GOES, POES, Meteosat & MODIS shortwave IR

- Overlays
- _Boundaries_ – Countries, Airspaces
- _Winds_ – Cloud motion, models, & soundings
- _Volcano locations_

- GOES=Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
- POES=Polar Operational Environmental Satellite

- TOMS=Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer
- CIRA=Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
- MODIS=Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

- VAACs

- Abbreviations:

**Notes:**
The Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers are the collection, interpretation & dissemination site of much of the information used to facilitate decision making by the aviation community.  
The main tool of the VAAC’s is satellite data.  The Anchorage & Washington VAACs rely on NOAA & occasionally NASA satellite imagery to detect eruptions, monitor airborne ash, & determine ash height & velocity.  Visible, infrared, & multispectral imagery is used.  

## Non-Satellite Sources of Information

- Abbreviations:

- FAA AFTN

- Airlines

- Cable TV

- Phone calls,
- Faxes

- News reports

- Other VAACs

-  SIGMETs,
-  MWOs

- GTS, FOS,Phone calls

-  PIREPs

- Weather
- Observations

- GTS,
-      FOS

- Volcanologists
- (Observatories, USGS, Smithsonian)

- E-mail, Phone calls

- GTS,
- Phone calls

- to GTS, FOS

- Internet

- AFTN=Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunications Network
- ATC=Air Traffic Control
- FOS=Family of Services

- GTS=Global Telecommunication System
- PIREPS=Pilot Reports
- SIGMETs= Significant Meteorological Statements

- VAACs

- Forecast
- Models

**Notes:**
VAACs also get information about eruptions & airborne ash from a large variety of information sources in addition to satellite imagery.  Some of the more common sources are shown here.   

## Dissemination of Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs)

- Internet site
- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html

-  FOS

- AFTN
- (FAA  circuits)

- AWIPS & N-AWIPS
- (NWS systems)

-  GTS

-  Listserv

- VAACs

- AFTN=Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunications Network
- FAA=Federal Aviation Administration
- FOS=Family of Services

- GTS=Global Telecommunication System
- WAFs=World Area Forecast Satellite Broadcast System
- NWS=National Weather Service
- AWIPS=Advanced Weather Interactive             Processing System

- Abbreviations:

**Notes:**
Telecommunications paths for dissemination of volcanic ash advisories to VAAC customers 

## Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA) for Reventador Eruption

**Notes:**
At this time the NOAA VAAC’s disseminate 2 products - a text Volcanic Ash Advisory which this slide depicts & a numerical forecast graphic (VAFTAD pronounced Vaf- Tad) [next slide example] This slide depicts one of the VAAs issued for the Nov. 3rd eruption of Reventador (slightly modified here for clarity).  This particular VAA was the third one issued for this event & it was issued about 4 hours after the eruption began. 		

## Sample VAFTAD

**Notes:**
In addition to the Volcanic Ash Advisories, the Washington & Anchorage VAACs issue a VAFTAD (Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport & Dispersion) for significant, high level eruptions.  The VAFTAD is a model forecasting the future location of volcanic ash.  This VAFTAD is from the February 13th eruption of Tungurahua in Ecuador.

## Case Study: Eruption in Equador

- Reventador

- Ecuador

- Pacific
- Ocean

- Dormant since 1976, El Reventador in northeast Ecuador erupted violently on November 3, 2002 sending ash as high as 60,000 feet above sea level. Ash was observed spreading in two directions due to sheering at different levels, threatening aviation routes for thousands of square miles around the volcano.

- Quito

- In the above GOES-8 visible imagery loop, ash can be distinguished from weather clouds due to the dark color of the ash.

**Notes:**
This slide & the next slide show the imaging techniques & resultant output products for a particular eruption from Reventador in Equador. This above loop illustrates the spread of the ash cloud using the visible channel (.55 - .75 microns) of the GOES imager

## Visible & Multi-spectral Signatures for Reventador Eruption

- Satellite imagery showing ash from the Reventador eruption.
- Figure A shows ash (appearing as a smoky whitish area) in visible imagery at 1615Z.
- Figure B is a multi-spectral infrared satellite image taken half an hour later (1645Z). The northeast edge of the ash (which appears in this multi-spectral algorithm as a dark gray/black area) has now extended into Colombia.

**Notes:**
This slide shows the use of multispectral techniques in delineating the spread of the ash cloud into neighboring areas 

## 1863 Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAA) & 814 graphical ash analyses were issued in the Year of 2003.
In 2003, the number of VAA almost doubled (195%) & the number of graphics almost tripled (292%) compared to last year (2002).
This year, VAA were issued for 11 volcanoes: 
Anatahan in the Mariana Islands, 
Soufriere Hills in the Caribbean, 
Tungurahua & Guagua Pichincha in Ecuador, 
Popocatepetl & Colima in Mexico, 
Masaya in Nicaragua, 
Chikurachki in the Russian Kurile Islands as well as, 
Fuego, Pacaya & Santa Maria in Guatemala. 

- In 2003, the number of VAA almost doubled (195%) & the number of graphics almost tripled (292%) compared to last year (2002).
- This year, VAA were issued for 11 volcanoes:
- Anatahan in the Mariana Islands,
- Soufriere Hills in the Caribbean,
- Tungurahua & Guagua Pichincha in Ecuador,
- Popocatepetl & Colima in Mexico,
- Masaya in Nicaragua,
- Chikurachki in the Russian Kurile Islands as well as,
- Fuego, Pacaya & Santa Maria in Guatemala.

- 2003 VAAs

- 2003 Graphics

- Washington VAAC Volcanic Ash Support

**Notes:**
Many people don’t realize how many eruptions or ash events are occurring in the world.  The Washington VAAC typically issues 1000-2000 Volcanic Ash Advisories each year, for a dozen different volcanoes. In 2003 they issued 1863 advisories for 11 different volcanoes. The Washington VAAC typically issues 1000-2000 Volcanic Ash Advisories each year, for about a dozen different volcanoes.  In 2003, the VAAC issued 1863 advisories for 11 different volcanoes.  

## Future Challenges

- Meet the increasing requirements of aviation community through continued research & interagency collaboration in satellite-based volcanic ash detection including:
- Accurate ash height assignments
- Detection & tracking of SO2 emissions
- Enhanced ash cloud forecasts
- Improved timeliness of eruption notification
- Graphical products for realtime cockpit use
- Leverage off future satellite data streams with improved capabilities for enhanced volcanic ash detection & monitoring (e.g. NPOESS)

**Notes:**
NOAA future challenges- to fund continued research & collaboration in development of enhanced volcanic ash remote sensing techniques to meet the increasing desired requirements of the aviation community.  Some known desires are for more accurate ash height assignments, better ash cloud forecasts, graphical products for cockpit use & more timely notification of eruptions, but I’m sure that even more thoughts will be expressed by the participants of this conference. 

NPOESS – National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System 

## BACKUP SLIDES

## A

- Infrared   (channel 4)

- “Three channel product” or “Ellrod product”                                                                       (channels 2, 4 & 5)

- Channel Differencing   (channels 4 & 5)

- “Reflectivity product” or “CIRA product”  (channels 2 & 4)

**A**

**B**

**C**

**D**

**Notes:**
Multispectral imagery (combining more than one channel) is used to optimize ash detection. Here, panel A depicts “plain” infrared imagery that barely shows ash from an eruption of Popocatepetl (a volcano near Mexico City).  Panels B, C & D use multispectral algorithms to show the ash more clearly.
Note:  Channel 5 is no longer available on GOES East.  However, its equivalent is still available on GOES-9, GOES-10, POES & MODIS.

## ASH

- Satellite imagery of volcanic ash cloud at all heights.

- Satellite technique showing only high level thick ash.

**Eruption**

- Volcanic ash in the Caribbean impacted holiday air traffic from Trinidad to Puerto Rico.

-      Washington VAAC     www.ssd.noaa.gov

## Visible Image of Guagua Pichincha Eruption

**Notes:**
So-called “Dog Bone” eruption from Guagua Pichincha west of Quito, Equador. Shape is caused by wind sheer