# Presentation: 816939

## Design Flow Analysis ProjectPhase One:	Low-Flow Analysis 			Case Study

*This analysis was done by EPA summer intern Graham Jonaitis in 2002*.

## Overview/Agenda

- Project background and purpose
- Present status of DFLOW 3.0 as tool for States
- Present case study
- Lay out plan for next steps of project

## Background / Purpose

- Why low flow?
- Wastewater effluent-dominated pollution typically violates chemical criteria during low streamflow
- EPA designates the biological design flow 4B3 for use in establishing  discharge permits to protect aquatic life for chronic exposure
- 1986 EPA analysis determined that hydrological flow statistic 7Q10 was equivalent to 4B3

## Background / Purpose

- Why revisit this analysis?
- Since 1986, 7Q10 statistic criticized as either over- or under-protective in various areas of US
- States frequently set their own hydrological low flow standards to replace 7Q10, or use flow percentiles (percent of flows in a given stream’s daily record that are less than the design flow) to impose pollution limits
- EPA desires to evaluate such limits in relation to 4B3

## Background / Purpose

- Design Flow Analysis project scope
- Phase One: Single-State Case Study
- Download and filter streamflow data from USGS
- Using the DFLOW 3.0 program, determine 4B3, 3Q2, and 7Q10 for each (valid) gage station
- Analyze relative protectiveness of 3Q2 and 7Q10
- Determine relationship between 4B3 and percentile flows
- Phase Two: Case Study Delivery
- Provide web access to DFLOW 3.0
- Provide web access to case study
- Demonstrate use of DFLOW in analyzing xQy statistics
- Demonstrate use of these analyses

## Background / Purpose

- Design Flow Analysis project scope
- Phase Three: National Study
- Download and filter national streamflow data
- Determine relationship between 4B3 and 7Q10 or other state-specific statistics
- Evaluate relationship between 4B3 and flow percentiles
- Evaluate this relationship with respect to ecoregion, stream order, previous EPA study
- Report on the above analysis

## Data Acquisition

- Beta-version utility designed for use with BASINS allows streamgage data to be downloaded from USGS subject to various geographic criteria
- Quick – downloaded two hundred datasets in ~ 20 minutes
- Data downloaded in individualized datasets, one per streamgage – format used by DFLOW

## Data Filtering

- ASCE (1980) used stations with at least 15-20 years of record for calculating hydrological design flows
- All records with less than 20 years (7300 days) of observations were removed
- Removal of inconsistent data
- Contacted state’s USGS district office, received spreadsheet of information about stream exceptions (regulation, urbanization, etc.)
- Removed all stations without 20 years of consistent data from statistical consideration (e.g. station with10 years unregulated, 15 years regulated would be removed)
- Kept urbanized and consistently regulated streams
- 74 streamgage stations remained for analysis

## Determining Design Flow

- What is DFLOW?
- Calculates xBy and xQy design flows, given historical streamflow data
- Easy to use

## Determining Design Flow

- How does DFLOW output flow statistics?
- DFLOW outputs calculations in tabular form – can be copied and pasted into spreadsheet
- For each flow value DFLOW calculates, it also outputs corresponding percentile

## Determining Design Flow

- Previous Constraints
- DFLOW Program
- Problem: Output format contains both 4B3 and 4B3 percentile in the same column
- Solution: DFLOW code altered to use separate columns
- Problem: Program bugs cause compromised output when multiple datasets run within one session of DFLOW
- Solution: Code altered to allow simultaneous runs

## Determining Design Flow

- Current Constraints
- Data acquisition
- Problem: BASINS download tool lacks filter for dataset size (i.e. number of observations)
- Temporary Solution: After download, sort dataset text files by file size, giving estimate of number of observations

## Project Analysis

- Analysis
- Examine relationship between 4B3 and 3Q2, compare to relationship between 4B3 and 7Q10
- Examine relationship between 3Q2/4B3 and 4B3, compare to relationship between 7Q10/4B3 and 4B3
- Explore probability distribution of 4B3 percentiles
- Attempt to fit to a standard distribution (e.g. lognormal)
- Using cumulative distribution, identify reasonable percentile to capture “most” 4B3 flow values

## Design Flow Analysis:3Q2 vs. 4B3 for All Streams

- Observations:
- 3Q2 strongly correlated with 4B3 (R2 = 0.9976)
- 3Q2 flow 22% greater than 4B3 (y = 1.2163x)

## Design Flow Analysis: 3Q2 vs. 4B3 for Large-Flow Streams (1000 cfs < 4B3)

- Observations:
- 3Q2 strongly correlated with 4B3 (R2 = 0.9958)
- 3Q2 flow 22% greater than 4B3 (y = 1.216x)

## Design Flow Analysis: 3Q2 vs. 4B3 for Medium-Flow Streams (100 cfs < 4B3 < 1000 cfs)

- Observations:
- 3Q2 well correlated with 4B3 (R2 = 0.9492)
- 3Q2 flow 37% greater than 4B3 (y = 1.3717x)

## Design Flow Analysis:3Q2 vs. 4B3 for Small-Flow Streams (4B3 < 100 cfs)

- Observations:
- 3Q2 well correlated with 4B3 (R2 = 0.9497)
- 3Q2 greatest: 59% greater than 4B3 (y = 1.5855x)

## Design Flow Analysis: 3Q2/4B3 vs. 4B3

- Observation: 3Q2 dramatically higher for small streams (factor of two to five for 4B3 < 20 cfs)

## Design Flow Analysis: Excursions Per Three Years for 3Q2

- Observations
- Excursions per three years centered around six
- All stations show at least two excursions per three years

## Design Flow Analysis: 7Q10 vs. 4B3 for All Streams

- Observations:
- 7Q10 strongly correlated with 4B3 (R2 = 0.9992)
- 7Q10 flow 1% greater than 4B3 (y = 1.0082x)

## Design Flow Analysis: 7Q10 vs. 4B3 for Large-Flow Streams (1000 cfs < 4B3)

- Observations:
- 7Q10 strongly correlated with 4B3 (R2 = 0.9986)
- 7Q10 flow 1% greater than 4B3 (y=1.0082x)

## Design Flow Analysis: 7Q10 vs. 4B3 for Medium-Flow Streams (100 cfs < 4B3 < 1000 cfs)

- Observations:
- 7Q10 strongly correlated with 4B3 (R2 = 0.9942)
- 7Q10 flow 4% greater than 4B3 (y = 1.0356x)

## Design Flow Analysis: 7Q10 vs. 4B3 for Small-Flow Streams (4B3 < 100 cfs)

- Observations:
- 7Q10 slightly less correlated with 4B3 (R2 = 0.9779)
- 7Q10 flow 0.4% greater than 4B3 (y = 1.004x)

## Design Flow Analysis: 7Q10/4B3 vs. 4B3

- Observation: 7Q10 clustered around 4B3 equivalence, but ratio for very small streams is as high as 1.6

## Design Flow Analysis: Excursions Per Three Years for 7Q10

- Observations
- Excursions per three years centered near one and one half
- 65% of the rivers exceed criteria more than once per year

## Design Flow Analysis: Distribution of 4B3 Percentiles

## Design Flow Analysis: Distribution of 4B3 Percentiles

- Delta-Lognormal Distribution
- Five data points (4B3% = 0%) assumed to be nondetect values, based on sensitivity of 4B3 method
- Data presumed to fit lognormal distribution, but values too low
- Retained in cumulative distribution to determine number of low-end streams protected by percentile limits
- Poor fit: p-correlation of 0.0826
- National data may show better fit
- Observations
- Distribution mean = 0.48%  ; mode = 0.40%
- High end of distribution = 1.40% for empirical data, 2.96% for distribution

## DFLOW and download tool should make analysis easy for states to perform 
3Q2 vs. 4B3
22% greater than 4B3 across the board
59% greater than 4B3 for small streams
Shows 4-8 excursions per 3 years vs. 1 for 4B3
7Q10 vs. 4B3
Generally equivalent to 4B3 (1% greater overall)
4% less than 4B3 for medium- and small-flow streams
Shows 0-2 excursions per 3 years

- 3Q2 vs. 4B3
- 22% greater than 4B3 across the board
- 59% greater than 4B3 for small streams
- Shows 4-8 excursions per 3 years vs. 1 for 4B3
- 7Q10 vs. 4B3
- Generally equivalent to 4B3 (1% greater overall)
- 4% less than 4B3 for medium- and small-flow streams
- Shows 0-2 excursions per 3 years

- Conclusions

## Percentile Flow
4B3 percentiles show no clear statistical distribution
4B3 percentiles range from 0% to 1.40% for flow data, hence any percentile limit above 1.40% will under-protect streams

- 4B3 percentiles show no clear statistical distribution
- 4B3 percentiles range from 0% to 1.40% for flow data, hence any percentile limit above 1.40% will under-protect streams

- Conclusions

## Next Steps

- Phase Two: Case Study Delivery
- Number of biological excursions per three years will be added to DFLOW output
- Make data download tool and DFLOW known and available to State water quality programs
- Web publication of case study
- Phase Three: National Study
- 7Q10/4B3 Analysis
- Separate into large, medium, and small-flow streams
- Regional variability (e.g. with states, ecoregions)

## Appendix

- How does DFLOW determine xQy?
- DFLOW uses the following formula:
- 	where	*u* = mean of logarithms of annual low flows
- 			 = standard deviation of above
- 			*g* = skewness coefficient of above
*K* is calculated using:
- 					  ;

## Appendix

- How does DFLOW determine xBy?
- Calculate total allowed excursions over flow record using number of years in record divided by y
- Use xQy design flow as an initial guess for xBy
- Identify excursion periods based on xBy
- Calculate number of excursions in each excursion period using period length divided by y
- Sum total number of excursions over record; maximum excursions in a low-flow period (120 days) is five
- True 4B3 is the greatest flow that keeps excursion sum below total allowed excursions – iterative process

## References

- ASCE Task Committee on Low-Flow Evaluation, Methods, and Needs of the Committee on Surface-Water Hydrology of the Hydraulics Division. 1980. Characteristics of Low Flows. Journal of the Hydraulics Division. 106(HY5): 717-731.
- Biswas, H., and B.A. Bell. 1984. A method for establishing site-specific stream design flows for wasteload allocations. Journal – Water Pollution Control Federation 56(10): 1123-1130.
- USEPA. 1986. Technical guidance manual for performing wasteload allocation; Book VI, design conditions; Chapter 1, stream design flow for steady-state modeling. Office of Water Regulations and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency. EPA Document PB92-231178. <http://www.epa.gov/waterscience/library/modeling/wlabook6chapter1.pdf>. Accessed 2002 June 15.
- USEPA. 1991. Technical support document for water quality-based toxics control. Office of Water, US Environmental Protection Agency. EPA Document EPA/505/2-90-001.
- USGS. 2002. Surface-water data for the nation. <http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/sw/>. Accessed 2002 June 2.