# Presentation: 236097

## Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response- A View From Georgia -

- David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D.
- State Climatologist and Associate Professor
- Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences
- College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences
- The University of Georgia
- stooks@engr.uga.edu

## Facts About Georgia

- In 1960 Atlanta’s population: 1 million
- In 1960 Georgia’s population: 4.3 million
- In 2008 Atlanta’s population: 4.5 million
- In 2008 Georgia’s population: 8.5+ million
- Largest state east of the Mississippi River
- 8th largest state in population

## Facts About Georgia

- Northern quarter is southern highlands
- Southern half is the coastal plain
- Most of the population lives in the piedmont
- The fall line bisects the state (Montgomery, Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond and Georgetown)

## Georgia Water Facts 

- North of the fall line - primarily surface water
- Drainage basin for Lake Lanier 1040 sq. miles.
- South of the fall line - primarily ground water
- 1.5 million acres under irrigation, primarily in southwest Georgia

## Georgia Climate Facts

- Rule of Thumb: 50 inches of rain per year
- More than 80 inches in the mountains
- 45 inches interior southeast
- Rain is more or less evenly distributed over the year: March 5 inches and October 3.5 inches
- Evapotranspiration is extremely important in drought forecasting

## GEORGIA DROUGHT 				MANAGEMENT PLAN

- DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS
- AGENCIES and ORGANIZATIONS
- PRE-DROUGHT STRATEGIES
- DROUGHT RESPONSES
- DROUGHT INDICATORS and TRIGGERS
- CLIMATE DIVISIONS MAP
- Approved: March 26, 2003

## Section 1) DROUGHT 				DECLARATION PROCESS

- The following is the process for declaring drought conditions and responses:
- 1A): The State Climatologist’s office and EPD will routinely monitor and evaluate stream flows, lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels, and other climatic indicators that are supplied by several cooperating entities ...

## Precipitation

- 30 days
- 90 days
- 6 months
- 12 months
- Water Year
- 24 months
- 36 months

## 30 Day Precipitation

## 90 Day Precipitation

## 6 Month Precipitation

## 12 Month Precipitation

## Water Year Precipitation

## 24 Month Precipitation

## 36 Month Precipitation

## Soil Moisture

## “Top” Soil Moisture (top 1 meter)

## “Deep” Soil Moisture (2 meters)

## Stream Flows

## Stream Flows

## Stream Flows

## Lake Russell GA/SC

## Clarks Hill Lake GA/SC

## Lake Hartwell GA/SC

## Lake Lanier GA

## Groundwater

## Drought Level Guidance

**CD ****	****	****Drought Indicators **
**1****	****	****	**SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12
- 			Lake Allatoona
- 			Chattooga River at Summerville
- 2			SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12
- 			Lake Lanier, Lake Allatoona
- 			Etowah River at Canton
- 			Chestatee River near Dahlonega

## Georgia Drought Response Levels

- Level One: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a.m - and - 4 p.m. to 12 midnight.
- Level Two: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a.m.
- Level Three: Water on scheduled weekend day - 12 midnight to 10 a.m.
- Level Four:  Complete outdoor water use ban

## Determining Drought Level Response

- Look at climatological data
- Look at triggers guidance
- Discussion

## Comments about Discussion

- Drought impacts are cumulative - data may not capture the essence of the drought
- Drought varies over time and space - part of the state may be in short-term drought while other parts are in long-term - the importance various indicators will vary from drought to drought and within a drought.
- Seasonal components are important as well antecedent conditions such as soil moisture, stream flows, reservoir levels

## Determining when to relax restrictions

- Look at climatological data
- Look at trigger guidance
- Look at climate outlooks
- Discussion

## Drought Outlooks

- CPC Seasonal Outlooks
- IRI 3-month Outlooks
- NOAA’s and IRI’s ENSO Outlooks
- Southeast Climate Consortium’s Outlooks - State Climatologists of AL, FL, GA and NC - La Nina Watch issued in September 2007

## Additional Information

- State Drought Page: www.georgiadrought.org
- UGA Automated Weather Stations: 				www.georgiaweather.net
- Southeast Climate Consortium: www.agroclimate.org