# Presentation: 701033

## Alaska Aviation Weather and Volcanic Ash Advisory Center

*NOAA/NWS Alaska Aviation Program **Aviation Workshop Briefing*
*Anchorage, AK*
*May 15, 2008*

## Alaska Region Organization

- Region
- Headquarters

- AK-Pac River
- Forecast Center

- Tsunami
- Warning Center

- WFO
- Anchorage

- WFO
- Fairbanks

- WFO
- Juneau

- Aviation Weather Unit

- Center
- Weather Unit

- ADQ
- WSO

- BET
- WSO

- CDB
- WSO

- CDV
- WSO

- MCG
- WSO

- SNP
- WSO

- VDZ
- WSO

- BRW
- WSO

- OME
- WSO

- OTZ
- WSO

- YAKWSO

- ANT
- WSO

- Aviation Weather Center

-  VAAC

- Other VAACs

## NOAA’s NWS - Alaska Region16 office locations – 204 total personnel

## Weather Forecast Offices

**WFO Anchorage**

**WFO Juneau**

**WFO Fairbanks**

## AAWU/VAAC Staffing

- 1 Meteorologist in Charge/VAAC program manager
- 1 Techniques and Development Meteorologist/SOO
- 1 Contract ITO/Computer Engineer
- 5 Senior Forecasters
- 5 General Forecasters

- National Weather Service Alaska Region / Alaska Aviation Weather Unit

## Area of Responsibility 

- National Weather Service Alaska Region / Alaska Aviation Weather Unit

## Anchorage VAAC AOR versus AK and U.S.

## Success Stories 

- Graphical SIGMETs  and Volcanic Ash Advisories
- New web-pages
- NextGEN – IC4D development
- Convective Outlook
- Several on-going studies
- Web stats
- Verification of Significant Weather Charts
- Implementation of Teams concept

- National Weather Service Alaska Region / Alaska Aviation Weather Unit

## Challenges

- Moving to the graphical world (IC4D-GFE)
- Small staff and a large - diverse forecast area
- VAAC -Vol Ash and staffing challenges

- National Weather Service Alaska Region / Alaska Aviation Weather Unit

## Partners and Customers

- CWSU
- FAA- Anchorage ARTCC-  Kenai, Juneau, Fairbanks Flight Service Stations
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
- International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
- Alaska Airmen’s Assoc.
- Aircraft Owners and Pilots Assoc.
- Medallion Foundation
- Civil Air Patrol
- General Aviation Interests

## The Alaskan “NAS”- Impacts

- Aviation accidents are one of the leading causes of occupational fatalities in Alaska. Pilots in Alaska die at a rate nearly **100 times** the mortality rate for all U.S. workers, and ***over five times* **the rate for all United States pilots.
- Alaska- “the flying-est state in the nation”, over 95% of AK is only accessible by air
- 6 times as many pilots and 16 times as many A/C per capita than the rest of the nation, 1 in every 78 people in AK are pilots
- Over 10K registered Aircraft and pilots in AK
- More than 1200 Airports/airstrips in AK
- In Anchorage, 1 in every 9 people work in Airport related jobs

## Impacts Cont

- ANC- **#1 cargo throughput in the nation**, #3 in the world, expected to become #1 in the world. Approx 6 billion tons of cargo annually
- 58 different air carriers
- Nearly 1 billion gallons of jet fuel yearly (ANC)-most in the nation
- Just one **VOL ASH SIGMET (6 hr) over the ANC area = $5 million dollar impact **_**just on cargo ops alone!**_
- AAWU webpage ~ 1.4 mil hits a month, over 45K hits a day
- Lake Hood-Busiest Seaplane base in the US. Avg 190 flights a day, 800 a day on peak spring-summer days.
- Merrill Field – 200,000 takeoff and landings a year
- Aviation activity also incr. at FAI International, Polar routes, UAVs, Space Meteorology
-  **Alaska Pipeline - 1 million dollars a minute!**

## What’s new at the AAWU?

- IC4D-GFE
- New AAWU Webpage coming soon (New VAAC page already on-line)
- Graphical SIGMETS and VAAS
- May 1, 2008, Graphical Convective Outlook Product
- Automated stability indices in support of the Convective Product
- Numerous ongoing studies
- Team concept vs Focal Point

## Convective Outlook Product

## Automated Stability Indices from Soundings

## Alaska Aviation Weather Unit 

- One of 3 meteorological watch offices (MWO’s) in the U.S.
- Provides aviation forecast and warning services for the Anchorage FIR.
- North and south desk, staffed 24/7

## AAWU Products/Services

- FAs and AIRMETs for Alaska
- SIGMETs for the Anchorage FIR
- FA graphics (MVFR/IFR, turbulence, icing, surface prog) – issued every 6 hours
- Significant Weather graphics (24, 36, 48, 60 hour forecasts) issued every 12 hours
- Pilot weather outlook briefings
- Aviation Web page

## Flight Advisory Zones 25 Climatologically Distinct Regions

## Flight Advisory (FA)

- FAIH FA 171345 AK NRN HLF...
- AIRMETS VALID UNTIL 172000
- TS IMPLY POSSIBLE SEV OR GREATER TURB SEV ICE LLWS AND IFR CONDS.
- NON MSL HEIGHTS NOTED BY AGL OR CIG.
- SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 180800 HI PRES OVR NRN AK PRSTS THRU THE PD.
-  UPR YKN VLY FB...VALID UNTIL 180200
-  ...CLOUDS/WX...
- S PALR-CYOC LN..SCT045 BKN120 FEW CI ABV TOPS. TIL 18Z..OCNL BKN045/ISOL -SHSN.
-                      ELSW..FEW045 SCT130. ISOL BKN045 TOPS 130.
- OTLK VALID 180200-182000...VFR.
- ...TURB...
-  NIL SIG.
- ...ICE AND FZLVL...
- NIL SIG. FZLVL SFC.
- TANANA VLY FC...VALID UNTIL 180200
- ...CLOUDS/WX...
- ***AIRMET MT OBSC***PAMH-PABI LN S..MTS OCNL OBSC IN CLDS/SN. NC... OTRW
- PAMH-PABI LN S..FEW010 SCT025 OVC050 TOPS 120 LYRD ABV TO FL200.
-                                  OCNL SCT010 BKN025/VIS 3-5SM -SN. ISOL CIG BLW 010/VIS BLW 3SM -SN BR.
-                     ELSW..FEW025 SCT050 BKN110 TOPS 120. ISOL SCT025 BKN050/-SHSN.
- OTLK VALID 180200-182000...PAMH-PABI LN S..MVFR CIG SHSN. ELSW..VFR.
- PASSES... MENTASTA..MVFR CIG SN. ISABEL..VFR OCNL MVFR CIG SN.
-  ...TURB...
- NIL SIG.
-  ...ICE AND FZLVL...
- NIL SIG. FZLVL NEAR SFC.

- Flight Advisory (FA)

## Six-hour Surface Prog

## Six-Hour Weather Depiction

##     Six-Hour Icing

##       Six-Hour Turbulence

-       Six-Hour Turbulence

##      Real-time Surface Plots

-      Real-time Surface Plots

##    Pilot Reports (PIREPS)

-    Pilot Reports (PIREPS)

## Anchorage Volcanic Ash Advisory Center 

## Anchorage VAAC

- Responsible for Anchorage FIR as well as the Russian Far East region
- Lead AAWU forecaster is responsible for VAAC duties but may draw upon other available staff during major eruption

## VAAC Products/Services

- Volcanic Ash Advisories (guidance for the MWOs who issue SIGMETs)
- Official Ash Dispersion Model runs for area of responsibility
- Consultation and advice to the Alaska Volcano Observatory, CWSU, FAA ARTCC Operational Staff, Military, adjacent VAACs

## Volcanic Ash Threat

**100+ Alaskan and Russian volcanoes pose a severe threat to:**
-  _Aviation:_
- North Pacific (NOPAC) Routes
- Polar routes
- Alaskan jet routes
- _Surface based customers:_
- Emergency Managers
- Mariners
- General Public
- And more...

## IMPACTS 

***IMPACTS***

- OVER  100  JET  AIRCRAFT  ENCOUNTERED  ASH  IN  THE  PAST 25  YEARS
- ASH  MAY _NOT_  BE DETECTABLE  BY  RADAR
- ASH  IS  CAPABLE  OF  SERIOUS DAMAGE

## IMPACTS

***IMPACTS***

- JET  AIRCRAFT  TRAVELING OVER 500  MILES/HOUR  (6-8 MILES/MIN)
- ASH CAN ASCEND AT 5000FT PER MINUTE.
- ONLY _*FIVE*_  MINUTES  FOR ASH  TO  REACH CRUISE  ALTITUDES

## Slide 32

##  Potential Aircraft Damage from Volcanic Ash 

## COOLING TURBINE WITH MELTEDVOLCANIC ASH

## NOTABLE ENCOUNTERS

***NOTABLE ENCOUNTERS***

***BRITISH AIRWAYS B-747 NEAR GALUNGGUNG, INDONESIA 1982.***
- LOST ENGINE POWER TO ALL FOUR ENGINES, RESTARTED THREE ENGINES AND LANDED AT JAKARTA
***KLM B747-400 NEAR REDOUBT  IN ALASKA, 1989.***
- ALSO LOST POWER TO ALL FOUR ENGINES, EVENTUALLY RESTARTED ALL FOUR AND LANDED SAFELY AT ANCHORAGE.  (AN $80 MILLION LOSS)

## Redoubt volcano, near Anchorage Alaska, began erupting on December 14, 1989.  On the following day, a 747-400 airplane powered by GE CF6-80C2 engines entered an ash cloud at 25,000 ft. and experienced flameouts on all four engines.  During descent to 25,000 ft., the airplane entered a thin layer of altostratus clouds when it suddenly became very dark outside. The crew also saw lighted particles (St. Elmo's fire) pass over the cockpit windshields.  At the same time, brownish dust with a sulfurous smell entered the cockpit. The Captain commanded the Pilot flying to start climbing to attempt to get out of the volcanic ash.  One minute into the high-power climb, all four engines flamed out.  Due to the volcanic ash and dust in the cockpit, the crew donned oxygen masks. 
The Pilot Flying noticed the airspeed descending, initially at a normal rate (given the airplane's altitude) but suddenly very fast. All airspeed indications were then lost due to volcanic dust contamination in the pitot system. At the same time, there was a stall warning and the stick shaker was activated with no signs of buffeting. The Pilot Flying put the nose of the aircraft down to avoid a stall and initiated a turn to the left in a further attempt to get out of the volcanic ash. 
The crew noticed a "Cargo Fire Forward" warning and deduced that the fire warning was caused by the volcanic ash, so no further action was taken. 
As the engine spooled down, the generators tripped off and all instrument were lost except for those powered by the batteries. 
During the time the engines were inoperative, the cabin pressure remained within limits and no passenger oxygen masks deployed. The crew elected not to deploy the masks because the passenger-oxygen-mask system would have been contaminated by volcanic dust in the cabin air. 
An emergency was declared when the airplane passed through approximately 17,000 ft. The crew stated that a total of seven or eight restart attempts were made before engines 1 and 2 finally restarted at approximately 17,200 ft.  Initially, the crew maintained 13,000 ft. with engine 1 and 2 restarted, and, after several more attempts, engines 3 and 4 also restarted. 
After passing abeam and east of Anchorage at 11,000 ft, the airplane was given radar vectors for a wide right-hand pattern to runway 06 and further descend to 2,000 ft. The Captain had the runway continuously in sight during the approach; however, vision through the windshields was impaired due to "sandblasting" from the volcanic ash in such a way that the Captain and the First Officer were only able to look forward with their heads positioned well to the side.  Finally the airplane did land safely, but approximately 80 million dollars was spent to restore the plane, which included replacing four engines. 

**The Pilot Flying noticed the airspeed descending, initially at a normal rate (given the airplane's altitude) but suddenly very fast. ****All airspeed indications were then lost due to volcanic dust contamination in the pitot system. At the same time, there was a stall warning and the stick shaker was activated with no signs of buffeting. The Pilot Flying put the nose of the aircraft down to avoid a stall and initiated a turn to the left in a further attempt to get out of the volcanic ash. **
**The crew noticed a "Cargo Fire Forward" warning and deduced that the fire warning was caused by the volcanic ash, so no further action was taken. **
**As the ****engine spooled down, the generators tripped off and all instrument were lost except for those powered by the batteries****. **
**During the time the engines were inoperative, the cabin pressure remained within limits and no passenger oxygen masks deployed. The crew elected not to deploy the masks because the passenger-oxygen-mask system would have been contaminated by volcanic dust in the cabin air. **
**An ****emergency was declared when the airplane passed through approximately 17,000 ft. The crew stated that a total of seven or eight restart attempts were made before engines 1 and 2 finally restarted at approximately 17,200 ft.  Initially, the crew maintained 13,000 ft. with engine 1 and 2 restarted, and, after several more attempts, engines 3 and 4 also restarted. **
**After passing abeam and east of Anchorage at 11,000 ft, the airplane was given radar vectors for a wide right-hand pattern to runway 06 and further descend to 2,000 ft. The Captain had the runway continuously in sight during the approach; however, ****vision through the windshields was impaired due to "sandblasting" from the volcanic ash**** in such a way that the Captain and the First Officer were only able to look forward with their heads positioned well to the side.  Finally the airplane did land safely, but approximately 80 million dollars was spent to restore the plane, which included replacing four engines. **

**Exerpt from NTSB Report**
**Dec. 14 1989; 747 Nearly Crashes**

## 1989 REDOUBT Ash Encounter

## Vol Ash Puff Time Series