# Presentation: 519497

## CBRFC Distributed Modeling Efforts

- Ed Clark
- Kevin Werner – SCH (presenting)

## Current Applications

- Basin outlet point time series display in IFP.
- Experimental Soil moisture forecast grids.
- Probabilistic Surface Response grids.
- Extension into the Upper Colorado and collaborative updating methodology study with Rti and NOHRCS.

## QPF

- QPF point guidance from HPC, modified by the Forecaster as necessary within Mountain Mapper (MM).
- Mountain Mapper grids are converted to 6-hourly cumulative xmrg’s.
- 6-hour future xmrg’s are disaggregated within RDHM (v2.4.1.) using uniform disaggregation

**Notes:**
This slide explains how we are generating QPF for the hourly distributed model. 

## Time-Series within IFP

- Input Card

- Rfs_RDHM: *edits start, end, and switch time.   Runs RDHM with updated card*

- Basin Outlet Time Series

- Ts2shef: *reformat to SHEF and run SHEF parse/ post *

- IFP: *Daily observation of Model Performance.  SwitchTS mod when applicable.*

**Notes:**
Flow path for ingest into IFP.  There was a lot of discussion on how to do this.  As far as I know, only CBRFC and LMRFC are ingesting RDHM data into IFP.  Our approach differs from LMRFC who has had some problems with their means of ingest.  Rfs_RDHM and ts2shef are both programs developed in hour to automatically update without requiring the forecaster to manually change the input deck at each run.

## Cienega Creek, AZ – Low Flow Event

**Notes:**
RDHM responds because the intensity of the storm was preserved over a few cells. In the Lumped Model, the small amount of precip would be smoothed over the entire zone preventing the basin from responding. 

## Sabino Canyon, AZ – High Flow Event

**Notes:**
High Water event, notice that the RDHM without mods performs better (qualitatively) than the lumped hourly simulation which required MAP edits to the Upper Zone, and Unit Hydrograph edits to compress the response.

## Sac-HT Soil Moisture Grids

- Sac-HT generates Fractional Water Content ( Vw/Vs ) grids at user specified depth (5, 10, 20, 50, 100 cm).
- Based on QPE and 10 days of QPF.
- CBRFC is currently working with WFO Tucson to evaluate customer response and additional needs.
- OAR is collaborating with the placement of 6 soil moisture sensing station in the study area.

**Notes:**
Not to much to say on this one.  Perhaps emphasize that this is a preliminary effort and the feedback from the customers will guide future implementation.  OAR sensor are also helping to indicate the response over the entire HRAP cell with three placed within one cell’s boundaries. 

## Experimental Soil Moisture 

## Proto-type grid viewer

- Multiple grid type display (soil moisture, precipitation, and surface response.)
- Overlays on terrain and geographic data for better location.
- Enhanced navigation.

## Probabilistic Surface Response 

-  Run the historical observed precipitation through the Hydrologic Lab – Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) saving grids of discharge and surface flow for each hour.
-  Establish the hourly distribution of discharge and surface flow for each cell.
-  Run the model in real-time, with quality controlled QPE and very-short-term QPF (NMQ) to produce the discharge and surface flow grids.
-  For each grid cell, compare the value to the distribution of values and assign the exceedence category.

**Notes:**
With regards to the second bullet, it will be important to highlight that we know this differs from the approach taken by Seann Reed in the Distributed Hydrologic Model Threshold Frequency (DHM-TF.) In the south west, we have very few events so establishing the annual return interval of events requires a much longer record.  We have 5-years of XMRG’s but are looking into ways where we could extend back through the 25-year 6 hourly calibration dataset.

## Operational Probabilistic Surface Response Concept

- Grid of Discharge

- Discharge Exceedence values

- Cell  Discharge Distributions

- Q

- Occurrence

## Exceedence Surface Flow, July 31, 2007

## Improvements over existing FF Program

-  Continuous model maintains soil moisture states.
-  Model is connected – flows routed from cell to cell to show impacts in areas downstream from the precipitation event.
-  Indicates where significant flows are occurring or could occur based on that cell’s hydrologic distribution.
-  In time, WFO forecaster short-term storm projections can be used to derive quantified stream response.
-  Begins to bridge the gap between traditional RFC river forecasts and the Flashflood program.

## Questions?

- Edward.clark@noaa.gov