# Presentation: 853614

## Advances in Numerical Air Quality Prediction Systems: Models and Information Delivery

**John N. McHenry  **
**Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, LLC**
***and***
**R. Husar, C. Hsu, C. Coats, J. Vukovich, M. J. Jeong, J. Warner, M. Abraczinskas, B. Do, and S. Datta**

## Talk Outline

** **
** ****Introduction**
** ****Progress in Model Advancements **
** ****Progress in Information Delivery for Decision      Support**
** ****Summary**

## Introduction: Baron Adv. Met Systems: 10th year in Operational Numerical Air Quality Systems

** ****MAQSIP-RT**
** ****Began in 1998**
** ****Participated in all major field programs since 2000**
** ****TXAQS-2000, NEAQS-2001, 2002, 2004 (McHenry, et al., 2004, Bull. Amer. Meteorological Society), TEXAQS-06**
** ****Performance Statistics leader among all models forecasting ozone throughout all of these field programs**
** ****45/15/5km availability; 5-day forecast **
** ****CMAQ-DA**
** ****NASA grant/cooperative agreement – Data-Assimilation Version **
** ****TERRA/AQUA-MODIS Deep Blue for PM**
** ****EPA AIRNOW sfc PM**
** ****Coupling to NASA Land-Information System: **
** ****VERY HIGH resolution (1km CONUS) for improved:**
** ****soil moisture, terrain effects, biogenics (HI-RES BEIS)**
** ****45/15/5km availability; 5-day forecast**
** ****MATC–H **
** ****Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry – Hybrid Parallel (our newest model; MPI-OMP domain decomposition; *****2-3 times FASTER***** than CMAQ w/ *****both CMAQ and MAQSIP-RT science components*****) **

## Introduction: Baron Adv. Met Systems 10th year in Operational Numerical Air Quality Systems

** ****Goal: To continually improve operational decision support for issuance of air quality forecasts by numerous clients **
** ****TOOLS *****DIFFER***** FROM NATIONAL EPA/NCEP CMAQ model in all cases – thus they all add value: **
** ****almost all meteorological forecasts are based on more than one model—**
** ****WHY NOT AIR QUALITY?? BAMS provides the additional hi-value modeling systems that allow AQ forecasters to make forecasts with increased confidence and certainty**
**  ****Model Advancements **
** ****CMAQ-DA**
** ****through design, development, testing and implementation of an advanced *****Operational Data-Assimilation System *****within BAMS’ Operational CMAQ**
** ****MATC-H**
** ****Information Delivery Advancements**
** ****Traditional Web-site(s)**
** ****VIPIR-AQ (Advanced Display for End-User Forecasters, TV)**
** ****WxLink (XM car dashboard—VISIBILITY)**
** ****GEOSS compatible**

## Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version

## Modified Component Model DataFlows 

**MESOCALE **
**MODEL**
**(MM5 or WRF) **

**SMOKE-RT **
**Emissions **
**Processing and **
**Modeling System**

**Met Data **
**Ingest**

**Photochemical Model**
**(CMAQ w/ improvements)**

**Guidance **
**Products**

**Chemical **
**Data **
**Ingest **
**and **
**Assimilation: **
**Deep Blue; **
**PM Surface**

**NASA LIS **
**(Land Information System)**

**Progress in Model Advancements: ****CMAQ Data Assimilating Version**

## Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version

**Chemical **
**Data **
**Ingest: Deep Blue**

** ****MODIS Aerosol Deep Blue Retrievals**

## Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version

**Chemical **
**Data **
**Ingest: Deep Blue**

** ****MODIS Aerosol Deep Blue DA**

**TERRA DB AOD **
**(single 5-minute granule) **
**projected **
**onto **
**36km **
**CMAQ **
**RPO grid**

## Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version

**Chemical **
**Data **
**Ingest: Deep Blue**

** ****MODIS Aerosol Deep Blue DA**

**AQUA DB AOD **
**(single 5-minute granule) **
**projected **
**onto **
**36km **
**CMAQ **
**RPO grid**

## Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version

**Chemical **
**Data **
**Ingest: SFC PM**

** ****Surface aerosol observations**

**Fusion of available PM 2.5 **
**data (top figure ) and ASOS-based**
**light extinction data, produces **
**maps (bottom example) of the **
**surface extinction **
**coefficient, aerosol-scale height, **
**and indirectly the PM2.5 concentration **
**over the entire domain**

## Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version

**Chemical **
**Data **
**Ingest: DA Module**

** ****Data Assimilation Module: Observation Space Formulation for AOD**

**T****b****λ** = **H****mt ****(C****m****) + ****ε****b****λ****          ****(1) ****Model Mass Concentration to AOD**

**T****a****λ**** ****= T****b****λ** + Pb**H**T [**H**Pb**H**T + Ro]-1 [**T****o****λ****- H (T****b****λ**** ****)]**** **
**	****	****	****     ****(2) ****Data Assimilation Step**

**C****m** = **H****tm ****(T****b****λ**** ****) + ****ε****m****         ****(3) ****Analyzed AOD to Model Mass Concentration**

## Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version

**CMAQ with **
**Science **
**Improvements**

**Old (left)                           *****Three-day***** forecast for June 19, 2007                              New (right)**

** ****Revised Secondary Organics Module—Now online**

## Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version

**CMAQ with **
**Science **
**Improvements**

**Old (left)                           *****Three-day***** forecast for June 19, 2007                              New (right)**

** ****Assimilation of Surface Fire Satellite Observations—Now online**

**Example: **
**Ag **
**Burns **
**Occurring **
**Today**

##  Improved surface relative humidity

** ****Harmonization of LU/LC w/ biogenic emissions sub-model **

**NASA **
**Land **
**Information **
**System**
**LIS**

** ****Other NASA model products, **
**such as global chemistry model boundary conditions, will**
**also be employed**

**Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version**

##  Assimilation of radar-based QPE into land-surface model to improve soil-moisture

** ****directs affects surface and boundary-layer RH, *****which directly affects photochemical reactions and aerosols***

**NASA **
**Land **
**Information **
**System**
**(LIS)**

**Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version**

##  NLCD and 30-meter Terrain coupled to BEIS 3.12      [ CONUS+ ]

**NASA **
**Land **
**Information **
**System**
**LIS**

**Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version**

##  Optional High-Resolution Stream-flow at DEM scale: this example, 100meters

**NASA **
**Land **
**Information **
**System**
**LIS**

**Progress in Model Advancements: CMAQ Data Assimilating Version**

## Progress in Information Delivery: End User Tools and Broadcast 

**VIPIR-AQ **
**(Advanced **
**Display **
**for **
**End-User **
**Forecasters, **
**TV) **

**Progress in Information Delivery: End User Tools and Broadcast **

**5km scale NYC PM Forecast: Tue April 8, 2008**

## Progress in Information Delivery: End User Tools and Broadcast 

**VIPIR-AQ **
**(Advanced **
**Display **
**for **
**End-User **
**Forecasters, **
**TV) **

**Progress in Information Delivery: End User Tools and Broadcast **

**PAC-NW Ozone Forecast, April 8, 2008**

## Progress in Information Delivery: End User Tools and Broadcast 

**VIPIR-AQ **
**(Advanced **
**Display **
**for **
**End-User **
**Forecasters, **
**TV) **

**Progress in Information Delivery: End User Tools and Broadcast **

**AQ Forecast w/ Real-Time Radar Overlay**

**Reflectivity**

**PM from **
**Ag Burns**

**Snow**

## Progress in Information Delivery: Automobile Navigation Systems

**XM Satellite:**
**NAV-Weather**
**(*****Visibility*****)**
**Car Dashboard**
**System **
**becoming **
**available **
**on **
**several **
**models **
**in 2009**

**Progress in Information Delivery: Automobile Navigation Systems**

## Progress in Information Delivery: Automobile Navigation Systems

**XM Satellite:**
**NAV-Weather**
**(*****Visibility*****)**
**Car Dashboard**
**System **
**becoming **
**available **
**on **
**several **
**models **
**in 2009**

**Progress in Information Delivery: Automobile Navigation Systems**

## Progress in Information Delivery: Automobile Navigation Systems

**XM Satellite:**
**NAV-Weather**
**(*****Visibility*****)**
**Car Dashboard**
**System **
**becoming **
**available **
**on **
**several **
**models **
**in 2009**

**Progress in Information Delivery: Automobile Navigation Systems**

**Current Visibility effects include both fog and PM/smog**

## Progress in Information Delivery: Global Earth Observation System of Systems

**BAMS AQ **
**Forecast**
**Decision**
**Support **
**System:**
**GEOSS **
**Compatible**

**Progress in Information Delivery: Global Earth Observation System of Systems**

**Web 2.0**

## Progress in Information Delivery: Global Earth Observation System of Systems

**BAMS AQ **
**Forecast**
**Decision**
**Support **
**System:**
**GEOSS **
**Compatible**

**Progress in Information Delivery: Global Earth Observation System of Systems**

##   BAMS Continues to be the leading provider of air quality forecast decision support:
 Models
 Information Delivery

 BAMS is rapidly advancing forecast capability through model improvements
 Data Assimilation
 Deep Blue MODIS AOD
 CONUS-Wide real-time fires
 Improved Science Components
 Updated Secondary Organics
 Improved land-surface and emissions
 Model Software Architecture and Optimization
 MATC-H:  2-3x speedup over CMAQ
 All systems differ from and add value over the “generic” NOAA system 

 BAMS is rapidly evolving the ability to deliver timely forecast information to a variety of customers
 End-user Forecasters
 Traditional Web-graphics
 VIPIR-AQ
 Broadcast Television
 VIPIR-AQ
 On-board automobile XM-based system
 Visibility
 GEOSS

**BAMS AQ **
**Forecast**
**Systems:**
**The Leader **
**in Advanced**
**Forecast Modeling**
**And Information**
**Delivery for **
**Decision**
**Support**

**Summary**

**  ****BAMS Continues to be the leading provider of air quality forecast decision support:**
** ****Models**
** ****Information Delivery**
** ****BAMS is rapidly advancing forecast capability through model improvements**
** ****Data Assimilation**
** ****Deep Blue MODIS AOD**
** ****CONUS-Wide real-time fires**
** ****Improved Science Components**
** ****Updated Secondary Organics**
** ****Improved land-surface and emissions**
** ****Model Software Architecture and Optimization**
** ****MATC-H:  2-3x speedup over CMAQ**
** ****All systems differ from and add value over the “generic” NOAA system **
** ****BAMS is rapidly evolving the ability to deliver timely forecast information to a variety of customers**
** ****End-user Forecasters**
** ****Traditional Web-graphics**
** ****VIPIR-AQ**
** ****Broadcast Television**
** ****VIPIR-AQ**
** ****On-board automobile XM-based system**
** ****Visibility**
** ****GEOSS**

***Please ***
***stop by ***
***our booth in the ***
***Exhibit Hall ***
***to learn ***
***more***

## Acknowledgements

** ****Rudy Husar, Erin Robinson, Kari Hoijvari, Janja Husar ****(Center for Air Pollution Impacts and Trends Analysis, Wash U., St. Louis)**
** ****Christina Hsu, , MJ Jeong, Jeremy Warner, Clare Salustro, Jay Herman ****(NASA Goddard)**
** ****Mike Abraczinskas, Bebhinn Do ****(VISTAS RPO)**
** ****Carlie Coats; Jeff Vukovich; Ted Smith, Jesse O’Neal, Bob Imhoff ****(BAMS)**

## Contact Information

***	******	******          ***
***	******	******          ******John N. McHenry***
***             ******Chief Scientist***
***Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems***
***920 Main Campus Drive***
***Suite 101***
***Raleigh, NC 27606***
***Email: ***_[john.mchenry@baronams.com](mailto:john.mchenry@baronams.com)_*** ***
***Phone: 919-424-4443***
**Web: **_[http://](http://www.baronams.com/)__[www.baronams.com](http://www.baronams.com/)_
** ****Web: **_[http://](http://www.baronservices.com/)__[www.baronservices.com](http://www.baronservices.com/)_