# Presentation: 203058

## NOAA Response toReport on Climate Monitoring Strategies 2002 Update

- Gregory W. Withee  Assistant Administrator National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service
**NOAA Science Advisory Board**
- March 20, 2002

## Context

- Other Climate Studies and Reports
- Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems, NRC 1999
- Ensuring the Climate Record from NPP to NPOESS Meteorological Satellites, Abbott, NRC 2000
- Recommendations of Panel on Reconciling Temperature Observations, NRC 2000
- SAB Panel on Strategies for Climate Monitoring, Goody, 2001
- Climate Services Vision, Barron, NRC 2001
- Report to SAB on Assessing Observing System Priorities for NOAA, Karl, NOAA Council on Long-Term Climate Monitoring, March 2002
- The Need for a Climate Observing System, Trenberth/Karl/Spence, Bulletin of the AMS, In Print 2002

**Notes:**
All from CDC WWW and Pulwarty and Redmond (1997)Forecasts not "accurate" enough, i.e., need at least 75% event accuracy. 
     b.Fluctuation of successive forecasts ("waffling") 
     c.The nature of what a forecast is, and what is being forecast (e.g., types of El Niño and La Niña impacts, non-ENSO events, what are "normal" conditions?) 
     d.Non weather/climate factors are deemed to be more important (e.g., uncertainty in other arenas, such as freshwater and ocean ecology) 
     e.Low importance is given to climate forecast information because its role is unclear, or impacts are not perceived as important enough to community resources 
      f.Other constraints deny a flexible response to the information (e.g., meeting flood control or Endangered Species Act requirements) 
     g.Procedures for acquiring knowledge and making and implementing decisions, which incorporate climate information, have not been clearly defined 
     h.Events forecast may be too far in the future for a discrete action to be engaged 
      i.Availability and use of locally specific information may be more relevant to a particular decision 
      j."Value" may not have been demonstrated by a credible reliable organization or competitor 
     k.Desired information not provided (e.g., number of warm days, regional detail) 
      l.There may be competing forecasts, or other conflicting information 
     m.Lack of "tracking" information; does the forecast appear to be verifying 
     n.History of previous forecasts not available. Validation statistics of previous forecasts not available. 

## Goody Panel Background

- Goody Panel Report delivered and accepted by the Science Advisory Board – March 2001
- Panel Report delivered to the NOAA Administrator – April 2001
- Review by Climate Observations and Services Program Board – May 2001
- Updated SAB on progress – June 2001

**Notes:**
All from CDC WWW and Pulwarty and Redmond (1997)Forecasts not "accurate" enough, i.e., need at least 75% event accuracy. 
     b.Fluctuation of successive forecasts ("waffling") 
     c.The nature of what a forecast is, and what is being forecast (e.g., types of El Niño and La Niña impacts, non-ENSO events, what are "normal" conditions?) 
     d.Non weather/climate factors are deemed to be more important (e.g., uncertainty in other arenas, such as freshwater and ocean ecology) 
     e.Low importance is given to climate forecast information because its role is unclear, or impacts are not perceived as important enough to community resources 
      f.Other constraints deny a flexible response to the information (e.g., meeting flood control or Endangered Species Act requirements) 
     g.Procedures for acquiring knowledge and making and implementing decisions, which incorporate climate information, have not been clearly defined 
     h.Events forecast may be too far in the future for a discrete action to be engaged 
      i.Availability and use of locally specific information may be more relevant to a particular decision 
      j."Value" may not have been demonstrated by a credible reliable organization or competitor 
     k.Desired information not provided (e.g., number of warm days, regional detail) 
      l.There may be competing forecasts, or other conflicting information 
     m.Lack of "tracking" information; does the forecast appear to be verifying 
     n.History of previous forecasts not available. Validation statistics of previous forecasts not available. 

## Goody Panel Response

**Benchmark Observations**
- NOAA supports enhanced benchmark effort and formation of a team to examine science issues and possibilities for new instruments, missions and techniques
- NOAA has initiated observational series that meet benchmark standards, e.g., the Climate Reference Network and the Dobson network
- Plans in progress to modernize existing in situ networks, e.g., Coop network
- Phasing critical; benchmark series most critical for climate prediction should be implemented first

## Goody Panel Response

**NPOESS Climate Data**
- Significant effort already underway to accommodate climate observing requirements for NPOESS
- Concerns regarding cost and schedule impacts of NPOESS climate upgrades
- Possibility of free fliers; altimeter being considered

## Goody Panel Response

**Ties Between Monitoring and Modeling**
- “Operational” program for climate change prediction desirable and feasible
- Generation of projections from a product development perspective
- Performance assessment by skill in reproducing historical/paleo record
- Improved assimilation through the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
- Recognized need for new activities testing models against observed forcing fields

## Goody Panel Response

**Climate Information Management**
- “Agency should . . . . provide adequate support for data access and long-term stewardship.”
- – 	Data access/archive issue being addressed the Comprehensive 	Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS) initiative

## Goody Panel Response

**Management**
- Goody Panel recommended broad restructuring for climate mission
- Climate Observations and Services Program in place since 2001; joint management and review of climate activities across NESDIS, NWS and OAR
- The Administration is currently assessing the proper structure for managing the climate mission within DOC/NOAA as well as Government-wide

## Goody Panel Response

**Other Comments**
- Need for more coordination of process research with monitoring and modeling
- Need to consider marine ecosystems in development of a climate monitoring capability
- Cost implications of implementing recommendations not yet determined

## Goody Panel Response

**Related Work on Reconciling Temperature Observations**
- In December 2001, NOAA responded to 28 specific recommendations made by an NRC panel on reconciling  air temperature observations
- NOAA stated that 20 of the recommendations were either being done or were planned to be done, and 5 would be done if appropriate funding were available
- Only 3 recommendations were not considered possible either because they were too expensive or required major policy changes

## 20 NRC Recommendations Done or Underway

**Avoid Orbital Drift**
**Enhance pre-launch calibration of future NPOESS sensors**
**Coordinated overlap of NPP and EOS/NPOESS mission launches**
**Use free fliers for NPOESS (contractor choice)**
**Maintain continuity from SSU to AMSU**
**Investigate the use of sensors from decommissioned spacecraft**
**Sustain *****in-situ***** radiosonde observations**
**Intercompare old and new radiosonde types**
**Minimize changes for *****in-situ *****observing methods and promote continuity worldwide**
**Maintain dense U.S. network of twice daily radiosondes**
**Prevent adaptive procedures’ compromising of basic radiosonde network **
**Encourage other nations to follow U.S. lead on this**
**Achieve radiosonde ascent to 5 hectopascal level (international GCOS requirement) **
**Characterize accuracy by including radiation and lag characteristics**
**Enhance metadata in concert with the World Meteorological Organization**
**Develop and update radiosonde climate data records**
**Explore options for next-generation atmospheric sounding system**
**Reinvigorate efforts to ensure long-term climate record**
**Monitor space-based and *****in-situ***** network performance **
**Improve dialogue and information exchange by using ad hoc sensor science teams**

## 5 NRC Recommendations Done if Funded

** **
**Create Web Site for Instrument Status**
**Expand radiosonde coverage in the tropics**
**Intercompare radiosonde performance at more regionally representative sites**
**Research required on network design for better spatial density of radiosonde sites for climate monitoring**
**Identify critical climate data records; maintain and document their production **

## NRC Recommendations Considered

**3 Which Have Major Funding and/or Policy Implications**** **
**Overlap satellites one year; (however now an NPOESS requirement)**
**Launch on schedule, not failure**
**Enhance pre-launch calibration of AMSU sensors**

## Summary

** **
**	****The Goody Panel Report provided an excellent review of NOAA’s climate monitoring program.  However, this formed but one piece of a larger rubric of other studies and reports related to the U.S.’ overall climate observing system.  As the new Administration formulates a new climate structure, it will build upon all these reports to enhance the nation’s climate observing capabilities. **** **