# Presentation: 922011

## RPO National Work Group Meeting:Presentation Overview

**Joint Fires Call**
**WRAP 1996 Wildfire and Prescribed Fire Emission Inventories**
**WRAP 2018 Emission Projections for Prescribed Fire & Agricultural Burning**
**WRAP 2002 Fire EI **
**Pete Lahm – Co-Chair****	****	****	****	****	****WRAP Fire Emissions Joint Forum pete_lahm@compuserve.com**

## Fires Conf Call     (11 /1 / 2002)

**VISTAS Fire Workshop**
_**[www.vistas-](http://www.vistas-sesarm.org/)**__**[sesarm](http://www.vistas-sesarm.org/)**__**[.org](http://www.vistas-sesarm.org/)**_
**MWRPO Fire Study**
**CSEM Update ( OAQPS & ORD)**
_**[www.](http://www.cira.colostate.edu/)**__**[cira](http://www.cira.colostate.edu/)**__**[.](http://www.cira.colostate.edu/)**__**[colostate](http://www.cira.colostate.edu/)**__**[.](http://www.cira.colostate.edu/)**__**[edu](http://www.cira.colostate.edu/)**_
**WRAP FEJF 1996 & 2018 Fire EI (Lahm)**
**Draft Reports (pete_lahm@compuserve.com)**
**Satellite-derived fire event databases**
_**[www.geomac.usgs.gov](http://www.geomac.usgs.gov/)**_
**EPA Report on Fire Emission Estimation**
_**[http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/ch13/related/firerept.pdf](http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/ch13/related/firerept.pdf)**_
**Tech Issues Scoping Meeting: Winter ‘03**

## 1996 Inventories 	&	2018 Projections

**WF & Rx: Actual activity data (acres or fuel burned)**
**Calculate emissions.**
**Plume characteristics**

**Rx: Predictive model (1995 FEP) provides 50km emissions**
**Ag: Typical activity data (residue burned per crop per county); calculate emissions.**
**Refine the data**
**Realistic fire sizes**
**Temporally**
**Spatially**
**Plume characteristics**

**Reasonable?  Representative?**

**Accurate?  Can quantify uncertainty.**

**Notes:**
Now...a couple of slides to point out that I’m really about to present two very different animals...ACTUAL EMISSION INVENTORIES  and MODELED/THEORETICAL PROJECTIONS.

## !!!WARNING!!!

**1996 FIRE EI’S SHOULD **_***NOT***_** BE COMPARED DIRECTLY WITH 2018 FIRE PROJECTIONS.**
**Actual data VS. modeled projections**
**2018 Projections are not GROWN from 1996 data.**

**Notes:**
Remember this warning...we’ll come back to it.  And, we’ve got monitors in the audience (you don’t know who/where they are) that will physically stop you if you attempt to make this comparison.

## 1996 Emission Inventories

**Wildfire – From **_***ACTUAL***_** acres burned data**
**ICS-209 (Paper) (>100 acre incidents–date, loc-TRS)**
**DOI Fire Database – augment/cross reference data**
**USDA-FS Database – same**
**Complexes vs. Incidents = uncertainty**
**Missing data – State Forestry, County, Private/Industrial???**
**Prescribed Fire – Actual acres burned**
**No size cut-off**
**State AQ, Forestry, FLM’s, Gaps = Rangelands!, **
**Other EI Inputs**
**1 - Site-specific fuel type and loading factors**
** ****2 – Default fuel type and loading factors**
**National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) GIS layer used to assign fuel type & loading (FS Research).**
**Emission factors - OAQPS composite (EPA, 2001)**

## Slide 6

**Notes:**
The relative contributions of emissions from Rx and WF bear out this relationship of the fire activity data.

## Slide 7

**Notes:**
Lovingly referred to by the FEJF as the Blood Splatter Map...showing the spatial distribution and emission intensity (PM2.5)  across the WRAP region for wildfire.

Used mapping techniques for QA/QC throughout the process.

## Slide 8

## 1996 Agricultural Burning

**Actual residue burning data collected by ERG**
**Data did not meet enough of the data quality requirements to represent an “actual” EI for 1996 – very little daily info.**
**Gap-filling techniques used (1996-2000 data, land use **
**No 1996 EI developed, ****∴not used in WRAP’s model performance runs**
**Used as “no smoke management” scenario for 2018 Ag burning projections**
**Fuel loading – irrigated vs. dry?**
**Comprehensive Emission Factor Table by crop-type                                           **

## 2018 Emission Projections

|  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Rx Fire | Ag Burning | Wildfire |
|  | 1995 BaseSmoke Mgmt. | 1996 BaseSmoke Mgmt. | Typical Year |
|  | Optimal Smoke Management | Optimal Smoke Management |  |
|  | No Smoke Management | No Smoke Management |  |

**Types of Fire**

**Emission Control Scenarios**

**Notes:**
Remember the WARNING...as we jump into 2018 Projections.

Given our time constraints...we can’t get too heavily into the methodology for the 2018 projections...I would refer you to the FEJF webpages on WRAPair.org site for the PPT presentation given at the FEJF meeting in Cour d’ Alene in May of this year.

## 2018 Projections – Methodology Rx Fire & Ag Burning

**Input Data - Gross Activity/Emissions Data**

**Realistic Event Sizes**

**Temporal Refinement (daily)**

**Spatial Refinement (1 km)**

**Notes:**
Coming up with Realistic Event Sizes based on characteristics of historic fire events.  The characteristics of the 15k or so Rx fires used to convert the 1995 FEP Rx Fire Projections into realistically sized and timed events for the WRAP modeling exercises.

Similarly, ERG’s ag burning activity data included about 48k discrete burning events...the characteristics of these fires were used to break monthly/county data into realistically sized and timed events.

## 2018 Projections – MethodologyRx Fire & Ag Burning

**Plume Characteristics**

**Diurnal (hourly) profile**

**PT (text) model-ready files**

## 2018 Projections – Wildfire (“typical” year)

**Wildfire acres in the 1996 emission inventory (1996 EI) were compared to the 19-year average over  ’71-’90**
**The 19-year average was extracted from the US Forest Service Wildfire Statistics Database**
**The ratio of the 1996 EI acres over the’71-’90 mean acres will be used to scale the 1996 EI fire sizes for each state:**
**	****	*****Adjusted fire size =****** ******Reported fire size * (’71-’90 total acres)***
***	******	******	******	******	******	******         ******(1996 EI total acres******)*****	**

- 1996 was a drought year.            USE the most recent data for “typical.”

## Slide 14