# Presentation: 144567

## THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

**THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED**

**Climate **
**Community**

**Research &**
**Development **

**NOAA **
**Climate**
**Forecast**
**Operations**

_**Mission:**_** ****to accelerate the transition of research and development into **
**improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.**

**31 December  2005**

**Notes:**
Key information gaps:

- Influence of land surface properties (e.g., soil moisture, snow, vegetation,  topography)

- Impact of global ocean conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature, sea ice, salinity, currents)

- Variability of climate modes (e.g., MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, interdecadal variations)

- Understanding the warm season climate system and its predictability

## CTB Role
Programmatic and Science Priorities
1st CTB Annual Meeting
SAB Recommendations / CTB Actions

**Programmatic and Science Priorities**
**1****st**** CTB Annual Meeting**
***SAB Recommendations / CTB Actions***

**THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED**

## CTB ROLE 

**What does the CTB bring that’s new? **
**A Focus on Transition**** **
***Develop guidelines for smooth transitions ***
**A Means of Engagement**** **
***Research, Operations and Applications communities***
**A Mechanism for Distribution of Climate Information**

## A FOCUS ON TRANSITION

**In order to accelerate improvements in NOAA climate forecasts and applications, the CTB must define a process  to: **
- Identify and communicate the scope of responsibilities for the                                 Research (R), Operations (O), and Applications (A) communities.
- Identify and delineate different types of transition:
*R2O:* define where O picks up responsibility, and when a "hand-off" from R occurs.
*O2A:* define where A picks up responsibility, and when  a “hand-off” from O occurs.
*R2A: *define where A picks up responsibility, and when a “hand-off” from R occurs.
- Identify resources for R, O and A to ensure smooth transitions.

**User **
**Community**

**R&D **
**Community**

**OPERATIONS**

**1**

**3**

**EMC**
**CFS**

**5**

**4**

**O2A**

**CTB**
**CPC**

## RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS GUIDELINES

**The path to implementation of changes in the NCEP operational climate model suite consists of the following steps:**
***Model development and refinement***
***Preliminary assessment***
***Calibration (e.g. hindcasts)***
***Interface with operations***
***Final skill assessment***
***Parallel tests***
***Approval***
**The roles of the host (research) institution and the operational center must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions.**
**Resources are needed for both the research and operations communities to ensure smooth transitions.**

## CPC OPERATIONS TO APPLICATIONS GUIDELINES

**The path to implementation of operational tools in CPCs consolidated seasonal forecasts consists of the following steps:**
***Retroactive runs for each tool (hindcasts)***
***Assigning weights to each tool; ***
***Systematic error correction***
***Specific output variables (T2m & precip for US; SST & Z500 for global)***
***Available in real-time***
**The roles of the operational center and applications community must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions.**
**Resources are needed for both the operations and applications communities**
**Need to identify and refine steps for other types of O2A **
***Delivering models and data to the community; NOMADS Server***
***Regional applications (energy, agriculture, H2O resources, fire Wx) ***

## A MEANS OF ENGAGEMENT

**Collaboration with the climate community is key:**
**Meeting customer demands for climate information. **
***Participate in national & regional meetings that bring producers and users together.***
***Recognize limitations. Work with intermediaries (e.g. RISA’s, RCC’s, NWS/CSD).***
***Ask users what they need?  Develop regionally specific forecasts and applications.***
***Determine economic value of climate forecasts and products.***
**Enhance resources consistent with CTB Programmatic and Science Priorities**
***Collaborative transition projects (AO’s).***
***Links to cooperative institutes (e.g. CICS, JCSDA), international programs (e.g. CLIVAR, GEWEX), and other agencies (e.g. NASA, USDA, DOE).***
**Invite broad participation on CTB boards and teams.**

## MEETING CUSTOMER NEEDS

**Improve the skill of sub-seasonal and seasonal outlooks.**
**Make them more usable and more easily understood.**
**Expand products beyond averages to extremes.**
**Give more temporal and spatial detail.**
**Provide access to models and data.**

**MEETING CUSTOMER NEEDS**

**CTB Action: Develop enhanced partnerships with intermediaries that bridge research/operations and regional applications:**
**How should we package our products? **
**What kind of verification information should we provide?**
**What new products should we provide? **
**How often do customers want products updated? **** **

## PROGRAMMATIC MOTIVATION FOR CTB

**In order to achieve the blend of internal and external efforts required to improve NOAA operational climate forecasts, products and applications, a Climate Test Bed (CTB) facility has been organized. **
**The CTB will**** **
**provide more ****traction and visibility**** to intraseasonal-to-decadal climate research  by accelerating the transition to NOAA climate forecast operations;**
**provide an ****operational testing environment**** to support projects that result in a direct influence on NOAA climate forecast operations;**
**provide ****infrastructure and resources**** for (long term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on broader research issues affecting NOAA climate forecast operations.**

## PROGRAMMATIC PRIORITIES AND  SCIENCE PRIORITIES

**The CTB management has been working with NCEP management to establish a prioritized short list of high level institutional priorities for accelerated transition of science into operations (****Programmatic Priorities****).**
** ****The CTB Management is working with its CST and Transition Project Team leaders) to identify and articulate specific scientific priority areas                  (****Science Priorities****) needed to accomplish the Programmatic Priorities.**
**These form the basis of a Science and Implementation Plan (distinct from the CTB Management Operating Plan).**
**The SIP will be vetted with the SAB and the broader scientific community over the next several months.**

## PROGRAMMATIC AND SCIENCE PRIORITIES

**NOAA Climate Forecast System Improvements (CFS n+1, n+2,...)**
***Land & ocean analyses & models;  resolution;  physics; diagnostics***
**Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System**
***Consolidation & verification of statistical & 1-tier dynamical models***
***CFS, GFDL, NASA-GEOS, NCAR-CCSM, other, ensembles and (25-yr) hindcasts***
**Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System**
***Preparation for new reanalysis (data mining; analysis system for climate)***
***Verification, diagnostics, global monitoring & “nowcasting”***
***Development of operational statistical models ***
**Regional Applications **
***Drought/NIDIS, energy, agriculture, water resources, fire weather***
***Extreme events***
***Attribution – climate change***

## PRGRAMMATIC MOTIVATIONFOR A FOCUS ON CFS

**NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I applications that shows considerable promise.**
**The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts.  **
**Faster**** development of NOAA climate forecast systems is needed to improve on these forecasts and to provide more useful climate forecast products and applications.**
**Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use by the climate community is an optimal way to leverage the expertise of NOAA and the external community in order to ****accelerate**** the necessary improvements.***** ***

## NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

***Forecast ***
***Uncertainty***

***Minutes***

***Hours***

***Days***

***1 Week***

***2 Week***

***Months***

***Seasons***

***Years***

**NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast****Products Spanning Climate and Weather**

- Weather Prediction
- Products

- Climate Prediction
- Products

## NOAA CFS IMPROVEMENTS

- Science Priorities
- 	The possible components of CFS (n+1) are coming into focus:
- Land: Couple Noah LSM to CFS
- Ocean: MOM4
- Resolution: T126
- Physics: Convective parameterization; Multi-physics ensemble
- CTB Role:
- Comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of potential future changes to CFS/GFS               **prior to implementation**.
- Concerted effort to distribute CFS/GFS data sets to the community.
- Caveat: Reduce emphasis on evaluation of older versions of the CFS/GFS

## CTB FY06 RANKED EXPERIMENTS

- 5

- 5

- RCM experiment

- 4.2c

- 3

- 5

- Test of the GFS model biases over the

- 3b

- 10

- 5

- 2-Tier GFS experiments

- 3a

- 1

- 5

- Sensitivity to the subgrid-scale orographic

- 2b

- 1

- 4

- Identify areas sensitive to soil moisture

- 6b

- 1

- 4

- Soil moisture impact

- 6a

- 1

- 4

- Test of the new land scheme

- 2a

- 2

- 3

- Simulation with the GFDL coupled model

- 5a

- 4

- 3

- CFS/Noah experiment

- 4.2b

- 1

- 3

- Sensitivity to PBL formation

- 1b

- 2

- 2

- Alternative wind forcing in GODAS

- 4.1c

- 1

- 2

- GLDAS/Noah experiment

- 4.2a

- 4

- 2

- Sensitivity to convection

- 1a

- 6

- 1

- Hindcasts with the GFDL coupled model

- 5b

- 1

- 1

- Balanced data assimilation in GODAS

- 4.1b

- 1

- 1

- Deep data assimilation in GODAS

- 4.1a

-               _**CUnits**_

-            _**Group**_

_**TPT **_     _**Experiment**_

## MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM

- NOAA/CTB is a natural lead to develop the strategy.
- CTB Role:
- Coordinate "National" models that contribute to accelerated improvements in ISI climate prediction and projections, both in real-time products and with research that contributes to the CCSP and IPCC.
- 	“National” models are global ocean-atmosphere coupled models:
- NCEP/CFS
- GFDL/CM2
- NASA/GEOS 5
- NSF/CCSM
- Coordinate with any of several Multi-Model projects around the world (e.g. European Euro-SIP and the Asian APCC).
- The roles and responsibilities of the host institutions and the operational center(s) must be clearly spelled out, commensurate with resources, to ensure smooth transitions.  * *

## STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES 

**(1) COLA – CTB Collaboration on CFS and NCAR / CCSM **
**	**Background: COLA installed CFS (n) on the NCAR computer
- 	_Proposal_: NCEP - COLA intercomparison of CFS and NCAR/CCSM simulations to accelerate CFS (n+1) and MM ensemble prediction system.
- 		- 80-90 years of NCAR computer time for CFS @ T126 (Climate Simulation Lab)
**(2) NASA-CTB Collaboration on CFS (n+1) and GEOS **
**	**Background: AO for Columbia Supercomputer resources
- 	_Proposal_: NCEP - NASA intercomparison of CFS and NASA/GEOS simulations to accelerate  CFS (n+1).  Focus on extreme events.
**   **
**	**

## ONGOING ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM

- GEOSS will deliver unprecedented oceanic, atmospheric and land surface obs.
- Data assimilation systems have been developed for Wx modeling and analysis.
- Question: How should the enhanced observations from GEOSS be analyzed?
- 	Answer:   Develop an analysis system for “climate”.
- CTB Role
- Promote and coordinate synthesis of ongoing reanalysis activities within NOAA, across agencies and internationally.
- Benefits: leverage CTB infrastructure (e.g. SAB, OB, computer)
- Management: Project Manager for Interagency Coordination; Program Manager

## REGIONAL APPLICATIONS(EXAMPLE: HYDROLOGIC APPLICATIONS) 

**Proposal:**** **
- Meld key initiatives of the GAPP Core Project into the CTB and designate the GAPP Core Project and its external R&D collaborators as a CPT for Land on the CTB
**Science Priorities:**
- Examine Noah LSM and GLDAS impacts on coupled CFS seasonal forecasts (which also addresses issues of land memory impacts in CFS in general);
- Provide objective input for operational Drought Monitor and Outlooks;
- Develop a Drought Early Warning System in support of NIDIS;
- Provide Regional Climate Model (RCM) seasonal forecasts
- Provide Multi-Model Ensembles for Hydrologic Forecasts;
- Benefits:
- Consistent with NWS Integrated Water Science Plan

## CTB FRAMEWORK

**Infrastructure**
**Computing Support (*****1/3******rd****** NOAA “Red” Research Computer)***
**System and Science Support Teams (*****models*****, *****data, diagnostics*****) **
**Contractors, Technical Assistants, System Administrators**
**Management and Administrative Staff**
**Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant**
**Transition Projects**
**Base (internally) Funded**
**Short Term – potential for impact on operations in 2 years or less**
**FTE’s reallocated from NCEP and other line offices**
**Announcements of Opportunity**
**Long term – potential for impact on operations in 2 or more years**
**Projects are reviewed, competitive, community wide, broader science issues**
**NOAA or external lead PIs**
**Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc)**

## CURRENT CTB RESOURCES

**NCEP Contributions**** **
**Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA ****Red**** Computer)**
**23 Redirected FTEs**
***Management Team – 0.5 (CPC) & 0.25 (EMC) & 0.25 (CPC)***
***System Support Team (data, software) – 4 (CPC) & 0.5 (EMC)***
***Science Support (Transition Project Teams) – 16 (CPC) & 4 (EMC)***
**NOAA Climate Program Office**** **
**Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure (System Support TA in FY05, FY06); Additional funding for near term and competitive transition projects.**
**CDEP/CTB AO-driven competitive science projects (FY06+)**

## SAB Recommendations(Written Report from 1st CTB Annual Meeting)

-  Science Priorities:
-  Focus the science strategy as a function of resources ($$$, computing).
-  Prepare separate Science & Implementation, and Management Operations plans.
- (2)   Community Involvement
-  Increase participation in large annual meetings & topical workshops.
-  Use intermediaries (e.g. NWS CSD) to bridge research/operations & applications.
-  Clarify CTB proposal solicitations
- (3)   Model Output Access and Distribution
-  Develop hardware/software tools and data policy for disseminating climate information.
-  Work with established data distribution centers.
- (4)   SAB Structure and Meetings
-  Hold a dedicated annual review meeting.
-  Expand SAB membership (international and private sector).

## The CTB “Message”

- The NOAA CTB will:
-  Enhance cooperative partnerships between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader external research and applications communities by providing an operational testing facility that facilitates smooth transitions.
-  Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models,  and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction.
-  Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts,  products and applications.
-  Increase the range and scope of regional applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making by end users.

## CTB ORGANIZATION

**Director**
**Higgins (CPC)**

**Deputies**** **
**Pan (EMC) & **
**Gelman (CPC)**

**Program Manager**
**Ji (OGP)**

**Test Bed Users**

**Science / Software **
**Support from**
**Contractors; TA’s, SA’s**

**Oversight Board**
**CPC ****CDC EMC**** ****GFDL IRI NCPO**

**Climate Science Team**
**EMC  CPC  CDC  GFDL  NASA  NCAR**
**OST OCCWS  COLA  IRI**
**EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points)**

-  **Science **
**Advisory **
**Board**

## TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR OB, CST, AND SAB

**Oversight Board (OB):**
**Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA Climate Office and  NCEP concerning the CTB activities.**
**Climate Science Team (CST):**
**Guides CTB activities at the working level; evaluates results of CTB activities; makes recommendations to the CTB management on computing resource usage and access**
**Science Advisory Board (SAB):**
**Works with the broader climate community to provide “independent” expert advice on high-priority scientific challenges; coordinates with other programs                   (e.g., CLIVAR, GEWEX)**** **
**Complete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB Website: ****	****http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb**

## CTB FY05 ACCOMPLISHMENTS 

**Q1 – Annual Operating Plan (4 CTB NTOP’s)**
**Q1 – CFS Assessment Meeting  (WWB/NCEP, November 16, 2004)**
**Established 7 CTB Transition Project Teams:**
** ****	****Model parameterization, **
** ****	****Model sensitivity**
**    ****Assessments **
** ****	****Climate data assimilation (ocean and land)**
**	****Multi-model ensembles**
** ****	****Climate products and applications**
**Q2 – Initiated CTB Infrastructure (System and Science Support Teams)**
**Q2 – Established OB, CST and SAB**
**Q2 – Implemented CTB website **
**Q2 – CTB ToR , “White Paper” and T****ransition to Operations Plan **
**Q3 – CDEP / CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO**

## CTB MILESTONES (FY06)

**CTB draft Science & Implementation, and Management Operating Plans**
**Support external CTB users to the extent resources are available**
**Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer and begin to test reproducibility of data compared to runs on GFDL computer **
**Complete availability of twice-daily CFS data on publicly accessible server **
**Upgrade the seasonal forecast consolidation tool to improve its use of skill information**** **
**Contribute to Science and Implementation Plan for ongoing analysis of the climate system **

## CTB PROVISIONAL MILESTONES (FY07-FY11)

**Assessment of next version of the NCEP CFS/GFS**
**Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system  (EMC+GFDL)**
**Transition NASA model to CTB**
**Transition CCSM (NCAR) model to CTB**
**Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL+CCSM+NASA)**
**Drought monitoring and seasonal prediction for NIDIS with multi-models via NLDAS**** **
**Work with RISA’s, RCC’s and CSD to develop plans for regional application products**