# Presentation: 871991

## 3) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response PAGERUSGS/USAID

- Project goal: Accurately, rapidly and automatically estimate the probable human impact of significant global earthquakes and distribute alarms and concise summary statements to relief and government agencies.

- Morocco Feb 24th, 2004

- Deaths 715

- Iran Dec 26th, 2003

- Deaths 26,000

- Algeria May 21st, 2003

- Deaths 2,000

## 1) Concise color-coded impact alerts suitable for cell-phones, pagers, and e-mail.

2) Supplementary information including affected cities, maps of shaking and population available via the Internet.

- 2) Supplementary information including affected cities, maps of shaking and population available via the Internet.

**PAGER OUTPUT**

**Notes:**
PAGER output will consist of.

## Give first heads up alert
Provide an overall estimate of earthquake impact.
Alert response teams to a damaging earthquake.
Guide the effective use of ground truth damage assessment tools.
Aid hazard mitigation efforts through scenario planning 

**Provide an overall estimate of earthquake impact.**
**Alert response teams to a damaging earthquake.**
**Guide the effective use of ground truth damage assessment tools.**
**Aid hazard mitigation efforts through scenario planning**** **

**What PAGER can do**

**What PAGER cannot do**

**Provide a neighborhood by neighborhood damage assessments.**

**Notes:**
This slide reemphasizes the capabilities and limitations of PAGER.   PAGER will be able to provide an immediate estimate of overall impact of an earthquake, however, it will not be able to provide a neighborhood or street based estimate of damage.

## Slide 4

## Population exposure

**Population exposure**

- December 26th, 2004 M9

## March 28th, 2004 M8.7

## Dec 26th		Mar 28th		Intensity

- _Dec 26th__	__	__Mar 28th__	__	__Intensity_
- 1,300,000		  600,000		VIII
- 1,700,000		1,800,000		VII
- 1,200,000		5,000,000		VI

**Estimated Population Exposed to Shaking****December, 2004 & March, 2005 ****Sumatran Earthquakes**

- PAGER

## 95% of the way there but the last 5% is killer.....

** ****Depth: an error of 20 to 30 km can  make a big difference.**
** ****Magnitude: there is a difference between a 8.5 and a 9.0+**
** ****Attenuation corrections, site corrections.**
** ****No near in stations.**
** ****Defining the fault plane.**
** ****Infrastructure vulnerability.**

**95% of the way there but the last 5% is killer.....**

## Slide 10

**Notes:**
12,000 hour ~ 3 per second

## Global

** ****Intensity Reports**

**Notes:**
A new product at the NEIC are global felt reports.
This is a good tool to provide situational awareness
It works through voluntary contributions via the internet
* Unusually widely felt (many reports > 2500 km)

## Vulnerability“Earthquakes don’t kill people buildings do”

** ****Construction Type & Performance**
**  ****EERI Housing Catalog**
** ****Regionalized (Country-based) Performance**
** ****GDP**
** ****Human Development Index (HDI)**
** ****Empirically-based **
**  ****Ground shaking vs. losses/casualties for past earthquakes**
**  ****Test set for validation**
** ****Time of Day, etc.**** **
**	**

## Estimated Ground Shaking

**Global ShakeMap**
**Point source**
**Line source**
**Heterogeneous slip**** **

**Notes:**
One calculation that improves over time is that of ground shaking.  After an earthquake is first detected the best approximation of the rupture is a point source.  This approximation is useful for earthquakes with magnitudes less than about 6, however for larger earthquakes this approximation breaks down.  The above plot shows the estimated ground shaking for the 7.9 2002 Denali earthquake assuming a point source.   

## Estimated Ground Shaking

**Global ShakeMap**
**Point source**
**Line source**
**Heterogeneous slip**** **

**Notes:**
At magnitudes greater than about 6 the 2-D nature of the rupture becomes very important for calculating ground shaking.  This can be derived by determining the geometry of the fault rupture from source parameters and early aftershock studies.  Above is the ground shaking from the Denali earthquake if we assume a 2-D fault plane.    

## Estimated Ground Shaking

**Global ShakeMap**
**Point source**
**Line source**
**Heterogeneous slip **

**Notes:**
The most realistic approximation of ground shaking uses a heterogeneous slip model, this accounts for the fact that the rupture is not uniform along the length of the fault.  This can be calculated by broadband waveform modeling.  Right now a system is under development at the USGS to do the broadband waveform modeling immediately after a large earthquake.  Right now the USGS and its collaborators can produce one of these “finite fault” model in a matter of hours after an earthquake.  

## Shaking levels at population centers
Landslides
Aid hazard mitigation efforts through scenario planning
Other? Proximity to airports, road maps, etc...

**Landslides**
**Aid hazard mitigation efforts through scenario planning**
**Other? Proximity to airports, road maps, etc...**

**Beyond the basics:**

**Notes:**
This slide reemphasizes the capabilities and limitations of PAGER.   PAGER will be able to provide an immediate estimate of overall impact of an earthquake, however, it will not be able to provide a neighborhood or street based estimate of damage.

## Example ShakeCast Notification (html email version)

_**Example ShakeCast Notification (html email version)**_

**Notes:**
Example Email (HTML Version).
Facilities (this case just cities) listed in order of metric or Exceedence Ratio
First Box: Summary that can be send to Cell/Pager
Second Box: Critically, version control build into ShakeCast; Updated maps are distributed as well

## PAGER OUTPUT (supporting Web content)

- Estimated  critical acceleration to trigger landslides

**Courtesy of Jon Godt**

**Notes:**
PAGER will also repost on likely regions of landslide hazard.  

## PAGER: Scenario Planning

## Text message / e-mail
Static web images
User pull, similar to ShakeCast
Web Services, ArcIMS

**Static web images**
**User pull, similar to ShakeCast**
**Web Services, ArcIMS**

**How should we deliver the data?**

- NHSS

- HDDS

- SOLDGR