# Presentation: 577652

## Landscape Dynamics Breakout Session

- National Phenological Network
- Ecosystem modeling and I & M

- John Gross
- I&M Annual Meeting
- 7 February 2006

## NASA DEVELOP Internship Program        http://develop.larc.nasa.gov/

- DEVELOP creates pilot application demonstration projects, using remote sensing, GIS and earth science information, to demonstrate to tribal, federal, state and local governments how NASA technology and other data can be used to assist communities as they seek solutions for local problems.  DEVELOP is a student led, student run program with mentors and advisors from both the public and private sector.

## DEVELOP projects relate directly to NASA's twelve 

- _Applications of National Priority _

- Air Quality
- Carbon Management
- Coastal Management
- Disaster Management

- Ecological Forecasting
- Invasive Species
- Public Health
- Water Management.

## Past and Current DEVELOP Internship projects

- Yosemite – evaluate recovery after fire (Landsat)
- Evaluating distribution of tamarisk in Nevada
- Model airborne chemical plume
- Detect / predict cheatgrass distribution (MODIS)
- Monitor sediments and develop visualization tools
- This summer - pack ice distribution and walrus ecology

## DEVELOP Program Implementation

- Based in Langley, VA.
- Several ‘centers’ with coordinator,
- Western Center – Drs. Jay Skiles & Cindy Schmidt,
- Many (most?) projects are initiated by an individual,
- Must have agency contact and collaboration,
- High school to graduate students – very competitive.

- Very flexible program, focused on results rather than rigid structure
- Strong emphasis on student responsibility
- NASA can cover all expenses, including imagery acquisition

## Yosemite DEVELOP project – summer 2005

- Initiated in discussion with Cindy Schmidt
*ESSENTIAL* help from SIEN and YOSE staff
- Evaluated post-fire recovery
- ~ 75 Landsat images from Fire program (Nate Benson)
- 1973 – present
- 2 park visits
- Usually, end-of-project presentation to collaborator
- Students presenting results at ASPRS meeting.

## If you’re interested in initiating a project:

- Need clear connection to agency need
- Ideally has policy implications and community support
- Must have mentor
- Some logistical issues (space, etc.)
- Various arrangements possible – visit with me about this.

## Phenology as an integrative measure of climate change impacts

**Implementing a National Phenological Network**
- Julio Betancourt and Mark Schwartz
- with
- David Inouye, Eric Post, Dave Breshears, Dan Cayan, Mike Dettinger, Jack Waide, and Brad Reed

## Why phenology is important

- (**European Phenology Network - www.dow.wau.nl/msa/epn/**)

## ... and important to recreation management...

- (**European Phenology Network - www.dow.wau.nl/msa/epn/**)

## Using the historical (1950-99) record: 

- Influence of a +3oC warming on
**FREEZING SEASON &**
**GROWING SEASON LENGTHS**

*Using the historical (1950-99) record:*

- Increase in length of above-freezing seasons

- (**slide by Mike Dettinger**)

- Above
- Freezing

## FINDINGS – Dettinger, Cayan, Stewart, Knowles

- Rivers across the West are yielding earlier snowmelt runoffs (by an average of about 9 days) in recent decades.
- Spring (and winter) warming trends have driven these timing trends, and also have caused earlier green-up of western plants.
- Natural climate variations (e.g., PDO) have contributed, but other forces are also at work.
- Western rivers may be flowing 20 – 30 days earlier by the end of the 21st Century, and California is especially vulnerable (and thus may feel the impacts even sooner).

## NPN Implementation concept:

- Four-tiered, expandable structure:
- a backbone network linked to existing weather stations (Coop)
- a smaller tier of intensive observations (e.g., LTER);
- a large network of observations made by citizen scientists; and
- remote sensing observations that provide wall-to-wall coverage for the U.S.A.

##  Phenology is important to parks & all sectors of society 

-  Phenology is important to parks & all sectors of society
-  transportation, agriculture, recreation, ecology, disease
-  key to water and fire management, esp. in western US
-  Opportunity for NPS to be a major participant
-  I&M use / contribute data
-  interpretation and education
-  strong links to learning centers, academic institutions
-  will provide established methods and databases
- Next implementation committee meeting 22-23 March 2006

## Ecosystem Modeling for I&M

- TOPS output, displayed in NASA WorldWind

## Better decisions on park management

- Data integration and interpretation,
- Increase usefulness / relevance of data,
- Forecasting – anticipating change ‘in time’,
- Insight, understanding, and professional development,
- May be only alternative to evaluate complex responses,

**Better decisions on park management**

## Opportunity to work with Rama Nemani & Forrest Melton (NASA Ames)

- Existing NASA project to streamline model implementation
- Identified networks for pilot projects (SIEN, GLKN)
- Attractions:
- Sophisticated data ingestion / processing system,
- Data – independent ecosystem models,
- Ability (desire) to incorporate new models on demand,
- Variable scale,
- Extensive development in California.

## Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System

**NASA Satellites **

**~1.5 TB/day**

**EOSDIS**

**Climate/Weather**

**Ancillary Data****Topography, River Networks, Soils, Biodiversity . . .**

**250+ products, ****> 2 Petabytes**

**Causal Discovery****Autonomous analysis of data for discovery of novel causal models; integrated with TOPS for model validation**

**10-100 MB/day**

**TOPS****Biospheric models for ecological nowcasting / forecasting from data**

**Ecocast Architecture**

_**Knowledge:**_**100K to 10 MB****Daily nowcast and forecast maps, integrated datasets, images, causal models**

_**Data Overload:**_
**1-100 TB****Massive data sets, multiple products, heterogeneous data types**

**Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System**

**.1-10 TB**

## Modeling ecosystem processes

**Modeling ecosystem processes**

- (Nemani et al.)

## TOPS Prototype for Yosemite - components

- Continuous, near real-time, park-wide monitoring of ecosystem conditions at a minimum resolution of 1-km;
- Short-term forecasting of ecosystem function thru integration of NASA remote sensing data and ecosystem models;
- On-demand acquisition and delivery of high-resolution satellite data for periodic monitoring of critical habitats or events within a park; and
- Implementation of hydrologic and ecosystem models to facilitate high resolution model runs for evaluation of the impacts of alternate management scenarios on hydrologic and vegetation patterns in the park.

## TOPS output - Fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed (FPAR)

- (slide from Nemani, Melton, et al. 2006)

## Detection of major disturbance events;

- Ecosystem water balance monitoring;
- Runoff monitoring and flood prediction;
- Vegetation monitoring to aid in invasive species detection;
- Fire occurrence and fire risk monitoring;
- Predicted impact of climate change on vegetation, fire, and hydrologic patterns in the park;
- Nitrogen deposition modeling and water quality monitoring.

**Data and information to support:**

## Status:  delivery of daily and 8-day average, park-wide, 1-km resolution data 

**MODIS (8 day  products)**
- LAI / FPAR
- GPP / NPP
- LST
- NDVI  /EVI
- Landcover (Annual)
- Snow
- Fire

**Meteorology (Daily)**
- Maximum Temperature
- Minimum Temperature
- Rainfall
- Solar Radiation
- Vapor Pressure Deficit

**TOPS Ecosystem (Daily)**
- Soil Moisture
- Evapotranspiration
- Outflow
- GPP / NPP

## Resources for more information:

- Landscape dynamics web site: http://science.nps.gov/im/monitor/lulc/LULC.cfm
- NASA DEVELOP program home page: **http://develop.larc.nasa.gov/**
- NASA TOPS - http://ecocast.arc.nasa.gov/
- Phenology and climate change:
- National Phenological Network - http://www.uwm.edu/Dept/Geography/npn/
- European Phenological Network - _[http://www.dow.wau.nl/msa/epn/index.asp](http://www.dow.wau.nl/msa/epn/index.asp)_
- Pacific West Region Climate Change Page - http://inside.nps.gov/regions/region.cfm?rgn=223&lv=3

- John Gross 970 267-2111, johng_gross@nps.gov