# Presentation: 102894

## Alaska Region-Alaska Aviation WorkshopMay 13, 2008

- IC4D-GFE at the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit/VAAC

## IC4D - Overview

-  The IC4D client application is a modified version of the GFE.

## What is IC4D-GFE? (Interactive Calibration in 4 Dimensions)

- Not your basic WFO GFE-but a modified version of it...4 dimensional with editable parameters
- Based more on providing Forecaster improved guidance instead of model generated forecasts
- It's more forecaster based than product driven
- Used to produce high resolution digital  aviation forecasts

## Why IC4D-GFE?

- Important for many reasons to move into the modern-digital-database world...including verification activities.
- Brings the AAWU into the gridded forecast concept.
- For aviation...the current WFO graphics do not fully address aviation needs.
- Users are requiring better graphical products.
- A picture is worth a 1000 words to briefings.
- VAA graphics can be produced from Hy-Split and Puff (currently not available).
- Output types compatible with multiple users systems.

## AAWU Grids

- Turbulence and Icing
- Upper Winds
- Freezing Levels
- Convection TCU/CB/TSRA
- Volcanic Ash, Visibility restriction...
- Percent of Cloud Cover, Lowest Cig, Tops...
- MSLP coordination with WFO’s
- Numerous other guidance grids available

## AAWU-WFO Grid Interactions

- _AAWU to WFO                         WFO to AAWU          _
- Freezing level			Surface winds (NDFD)
- Ceiling Heights			Sensible weather
- Visibility				Graphical Haz. Grids
- LLWS/Winds Aloft
- MSLP
- Sky Cover

## Operational State Brings Endless Possibilities for AK Region

- Point and Click TAF “guidance”
- A coordinated NDFD between the AAWU and the WFO's
- A coordinated/collaborated forecast for all Alaska Region offices.
- Allows us to coordinate with Hawaii and Conus (lays the foundation).
- Improved aviation forecast guidance which is equipment (Aircraft) driven, instead of based on a “fictional mid sized” airplane.
- Meet the customer demands for graphical products

## High Level System Data Flow

- AAWU

-  PIREPS
-  ACARS
-  Satellite (future)
-  AK216 NAM  (Opnl)
-  (AWIPS D-2D netCDF)

- Senator

- AK216 NAM (Expr) (GRIB)

- pulled via rsync

- Obs rsync’ed ~every 5 mins
- Model 2x per day

- Pulled from NCEP via http (wget) daily

- IC4D output
- (images, etc)

- NDFD pulled via http

**Notes:**
Some data needed by the IC4D is located at the Alaska Regional Office on the FXNet file server.  Senator will run a series of rsync processes to pull this data into a local file system (/data/fxa).  The version of the AK216 NAM model required to drive the aviation parameter derivation post-processing software is obtained via an http pull (via wget) from NCEP.  

## Detailed Data Flow - Senator

- Grid
- Data

- Obs
- Data

- Raw data
- File system
- /data/fxa

- ifpServer

- PIREPS
- ACARS
- Satellite
- AK216 NAM
- (netCDF)

- PIREPS
- ACARS

- Decoded
- PIREPS
- ACARS

- Raw data
- pdt_input

- MWave
- Guidance
- process

- AK216 NAM
- (netCDF)

- AK216 NAM
- (GRIB)

- Aviation
- Parameter
- Guidance
- Generation
- Processes

- AK216 NAM
- (GRIB)

- Mountain wave
- Guidance grids

- GTG/FIP/FIS/SLD
- Guidance grids

- T/Wind@ FltLevels
- Guidance grids

- Puff
- Model

- Volcanic Ash Dispersion
- Guidance grids

- NWSTG

- NDFD forecast
- grids

- NCEP

- SREF Guidance grids

## GTGGraphical Turbulence Guidance

- Based on NAM Alaska AWIPS 216 Grid at 45km resolution (higher resolution in the near future).
- Uses a series of indices that are put together and weighted based on input model parameters.
- Uses internal matrix format for grids and the output file is in GRIB1.  Output grid is the same as the input grid.
- To run this program the run_gtg script needs to be executed from the python directory.

## Icing Guidance(FIP and FIS) Forecast Icing Potential and Severity

- Based on NAM Alaska AWIPS 216 Grid at 45km resolution. (Same as GTG)
- Produces a forecast based on a series of interest map functions for relative humidity, temperature, vertical velocity and other moisture parameters that make up the super cooled liquid water content.
- Uses an internal format called MDV in order to make computations and read files.

## IC4D Turbulence

## IC4D Icing

## New Interface Display Features4 Panel Sidebar and PIREP Display

- Toggle Side
- Vertical Maps
- Display

- Toggle PIREP/ACARS
- Layer Mode Display
- (Fixed/Float)

- PIREP Message
- Rollover Tool

**Notes:**
By default, the 4 panel sidebar is not displayed.  To display the panels, select the “Toggle Side Vertical Maps Display” button from the tool bar menu as shown above.  The purpose of the 4 panel display is to show the forecast for the current parameter at flight levels above and below the flight level displayed in the Spatial Editor.  By the way, although the site is defined as (AFG) in the Grid Manager, the grid definition covers the entire NAM AK216 grid domain.

## New Interface Display FeaturesPIREP and ACARS Displays

- Configuration for both PIREPS and ACARS displays under “Obs Configuration”

- Selecting “Other Configurations...”
- pops up dialog to specify number of hours of PIREPS to display

**Notes:**
Generic observation configuration dialog accessed from Maps->Obs Configuration (see next slide)/

Pilot Reports are displayed by default.  To customize the display of pilot reports, select Maps->Pilot Reports from the menu bar.  A cascade menu with several options allows toggling of pilot report display features:  
 Show Pilot Reports – toggles the display of pilot reports on/off
 Show Icing – toggles on/off the display of icing pilot reports
 Show Turbulence – toggles on/off the display of turbulence pilot reports
 Show Weather Conditions – toggles on/off the display of other weather conditions at the observation location (wind, temperature, etc)‏
 Show Flight Level – toggles on/off the display of the flight level of the pilot report
 Use Colors – if selected, will display pilot reports color-coded to level of severity.  If off, pilot reports are displayed in white
 Other Configurations.... – brings up a dialog that allows users to specify age of data to display

## New Interface Display FeaturesPilot Report Displays – PIREP Rollover Tool

- PIREP Message
- Rollover Tool

- Mouse over to get
- PIREP message

**Notes:**
The PIREP message rollover tool will display the complete pilot report message when the mouse is placed over the observation in the Spatial Editor.  To enable the rollover tool, select the Pirep Message Rollover Tool button from the toolbar menu 

## GTG with ACARS data overlay

## New Interface Display Features Lat/Lon Line Overlay 

- Check box under “Maps” menu to toggle Lat/Lon lines on/off

**Notes:**
Lat/Lon overlays have a built-in progressive disclosure scheme based on the display scale.  At the highest zoom levels, lines are drawn every 10 degrees.  As the scale decreases (zoom in), the interval gets progressively smaller (10, 5, 2, 1 degrees).

## Aviation Weather ParmsDescription

**Notes:**
For now, each aviation weather parm has a unique guidance database.  New guidance databases are created when a new NAM run is available (00/06/12/18Z cycles).  See /usr/local/ic4d/etc/SITE/localConfig.py for more details.  MWdrag has been scaled so that the values are comparable to those for GTG.  Mountain wave turbulence guidance is generated twice daily (00/12Z) from the NAM data available via the AWIPS SBN.

## Model Interpretation Basics Model Interpretation Tool High Level Interface

- Model Interpretation Menu Button

- Categorical Slider Bars (for GTG)

- Undo Threshold Adjustment

- Reset Thresholds to Default Values

- Close Model Interpretation Dialog

- Model Interpretation Dialog

- Selected grid to adjust thresholds for

**Notes:**
Clicking the Model Interpretation Menu Button brings up a menu that allows you to open the Model Interpretation Dialog (Interpret Model....).  The main features of the dialog are:

 Categorical Slider bars – Allow adjustment of thresholds that differentiate between different “categories” of a specific parm (e.g., between Light – Moderate turbulence).
 Reset Button – Will reset all categorical values to their pre-adjusted default values.
 Undo Button – Steps back to the previous threshold adjustment state.  Each click will take one step backwards.
 Dismiss Button – Closes Model Interpreter dialog.   

## Tools for Adjusting GridsCategorical Threshold Adjustments

- Moving the “Light” slider to the right lowers the threshold value (25) between Cat 1 and Cat 2.
- As slider is moved to the right, more points from  Cat 1 are bumped up into Cat 2.

- _GTG Categories_
- Cat 1 (0-25):     Null to Occasional Light
- Cat 2 (25-49):   Light to Occasional Moderate
- Cat 3 (50-74):   Moderate to Occasional Severe
- Cat 4 (75-100): Severe to Extreme

-  After each slider bar adjustment, the IC4D applies the updated instructions to the grid selected in the Grid Manager, and updates the display in the Spatial Editor.
-  Slider bar adjustments for Categorical thresholds are applied to every grid point on the grid. This is not the old GFE slider bar approach. Mixes and matches parameter weighting – not mixing different Models.

- Example

## Tools for Adjusting GridsCategorical Threshold Adjustments

- Default category definitions by parm:

- _GTG/MWdrag/FIS_
- Cat 1 (0-25):     Null to Occasional Light
- Cat 2 (25-49):   Light to Occasional Moderate
- Cat 3 (50-74):   Moderate to Occasional Severe
- Cat 4 (75-100): Severe to Extreme

- _FIP/SIP_
- Cat 1 (0-25):     Zero to Low Potential
- Cat 2 (25-49):   Low to Medium
- Cat 3 (50-74):   Medium to High
- Cat 4 (75-100): High

## Tools for Adjusting GridsCopying and Interpolating Adjustments

- Allows the user to edit “cubes of data” rather than just the individual grid or plane.
-  Any slider bar changes can be simultaneously applied to other grids by selecting the “Apply to All Selected Grids” button at the top of the Model Interpreter Dialog.

-  When this button is selected ANY slider bar adjustments will be applied to grids selected in the Grid Manager.

-  Simply click and drag to highlight the grids in the Grid Manager you wish to apply the adjustments to.

**Notes:**
Adjustments can be applied over multiple levels and multiple forecast times.

## Tools for Adjusting Grids-Meteorologist in the loop

- The meteorologist can go into the database and define the thresholds-can create their own.
- The Met. can do grid point editing of the meteorological INPUT fields such RH, Vert. Velocities, etc.

## Tools for Adjusting GridsModel Parameter Weights - Examples

## Tools for Adjusting GridsHow to Create a Model Parameter Weight (step 1)

- Select from IC4D main menu:
- Interpret->
-   Create Parameter Weights

- Parameter Weight Creation GUI

**Notes:**
This is the Create Parameter Weight GUI.  It is launched by selecting Interpret->Create Parameter Weight from the IC4D main menu.

## Tools for Adjusting GridsHow to Create a Model Parameter Weight

- RH Eta40 Flt180

- Parameter Weight RH FLT180Eta40

**Notes:**
Example of creating an RH-based parameter weight from an Eta40 RH field.

## Tools for Adjusting GridsPIREP Weights

-  Pilot reports can be compared to short term forecast grids as a verification check.
-  The challenge is to provide a technique to allow “nudges” to the short term forecast grids towards current observations in the volume of airspace immediately surrounding the reports.
-  The current solution is to create weight grids, similar to model parameter weights, that allow adjustments to be targeted to areas with current pilot reports that differ from the forecast.
-  The creation of PIREP weight grids occurs once per hour and incorporates all new pilot reports.  The weighting algorithms contain many assumptions and are highly-configurable.

**Notes:**
Pirep Weight grids are created for every flight level, for the top of the hour time.  

## Tools for Adjusting GridsCONUS Example of PIREP Weight Grid

- PIREP locations

- Radius of influence and weight value based on forecaster-defined configuration settings.

**Notes:**
One thing to remember is that this image shows the relative weight of the observation in just the horizontal dimension.  The observation also has influence (weight) in the vertical dimension as well, extending above and below the current flight level.

## Tools for Adjusting Grids Nudging Turbulence Forecast Towards Latest PIREPs

## Tools for Adjusting Grids Adjustments to Model Timing

**The timing of the forecast can be made faster or slower.**

**This is done by blending progressive amounts of future or previous hours’ forecast into the selected hour’s forecast.**

**Forecaster selects the amount of temporal shift, and the blending magnitude.**

**Notes:**
Oftentimes the guidance can be steering turbulence or icing too quickly (or too slowly) through the forecast domain.  Temporal adjustment allows the speeding up (or slowing down) of the forecast over slices of the forecast period, or the entire forecast period.  Temporal adjustments work by copying forecast grids either forwards or backwards in time, with the option of weighting the copy procedure itself.  The Forecast Time Shift is the number of hours forward (or backwards) in time to copy forecast grids.  For example, if the current forecast grid is valid at 18Z, moving the slider to 1 hour will copy the grid at 19Z backwards 1 hour into the 18Z forecast.  This would speed up the forecast by 1 hour.  The Time Adjustment Magnitude slider controls the weighting factor of the copy procedure.  For example, 100 would copy the entire 19Z grid into the 18Z forecast.  A magnitude of 50 would weight the 2 grids equally (i.e. blend the 2 grids together equally).  A value of 70 would use blend the 2 together with 70% weight on the 19Z grid, etc.

## Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesComposite Grids and Image Generation

-  The IC4D contains image product generation scripts that will produce web-ready graphics of the 4D database.
-  Graphics consist of simple imagery of any forecast grid to composite images of aviation parms (e.g., Max Icing Potential in a vertical layer).
-  Images are generated from grids in the published (Official) database.
-  Output format is similar to that for NDFD, so images will have same look and feel as other NWS products.

**Notes:**
1) Publish all grids from the Fcst database to the Official database. 2) From the IC4D main menu, select Products->Scripts.... 3) You'll probably like to monitor the progress of the image generation, so also select Products->Process Monitor... 4) In the Product Generation Scripts dialog, select "Generate PNG Images...".  For composite imagery, select “Generate Vertical Composite Imagery...” 5) Select "Process on: Local" (so it will run on the workstation, not senator). 6) Select Run 7) From the list of parms, select the ones you want to generate graphics for.  Currently I've only enabled FIP/FIS/GTG/SIP.  We can add any more parms you want if you find this useful. 8) Select OK from the parms menu.  You'll see the process show up in the process monitor.  When it's complete, the images should be ready. 9) You'll find the output images in /usr/local/ic4d/products/IMAGES.

## Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesPUFF Model Guidance

- Select “Puff Model->Specify options and run” to launch the PUFF model dialog

-  The PUFF model can be launched from within the IC4D.
-  While the model runs, the IC4D interface is not accessible.
-  A dialog will pop up notifying you when the PUFF model simulation is completed and the new grids are available in the guidance database.
-  To view the PUFF guidance, bring up the Weather Element browser, and choose Source “Puff <day>/<cycle> where day and cycle is the NAM model run chosen in the PUFF model dialog.

**Notes:**
The initial PUFF model output is ash concentration values at grid point locations and at every 500m from 0m to 16500m.  The ingest process that stores the PUFF model output to the Puff databases in the IC4D performs a vertical averaging to produce average ash concentration in 3 distinct layers: Low (0m-5000m), Mid (5500m-10000m), and High (10500m-16500m).

## Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesPUFF Model Guidance – Run Model dialog

- Select PUFF model source type  - either Volcano (from list) or point source defined by Lat/Lon

- Select one or more volcanoes from list

- Enter Lat/Lon of point source

- Select input directory for wind model GRIB files
- (override default path)

- Open PUFF Model Options dialog

- Run PUFF simulation with selected parameters

**Notes:**
The PUFF model can be run in one of two modes, either choosing one or more volcanoes, OR specifying a single point source location.
The volcano site list is multiple select.  Clicking once over a volcano adds it to the simulation run, clicking again de-selects it.  Max number of volcanoes per run is 10.
Only ONE non-volcano point source can be specified at this time.
The input directory for wind model files should not be changed from the default value at this time.
More specific simulation options can be specified by opening the PUFF model options dialog.

## Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesPUFF Model Guidance – PUFF Model Options dialog

-  Wind Model – Base model used by the PUFF simulation for dispersion winds.  Currently nam216 is the only option.
-  Start Time – Pull down menu allow you to specify what model projection hour to begin running the simulation.
-  Plume shape – single select option
-  Plume Height – the top (in meters) of the initial ash plume
-  Plume Bottom – the bottom (in meters) of the initial ash plume
-  Eruption Hours – duration of the volcano eruption
-  Particle Number – number of eruption particles
-  Save Every [hrs] – the temporal resolution of the output PUFF model guidance grids.
-  Simulation [hrs] – Length in hours of the PUFF simulation.
- *** See PUFF model documentation for more detailed descriptions of these options!!

## Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesOther IC4D Guidance Sources - NDFD

**Notes:**
The user “ic4d” crontab launches a process (/usr/local/ic4d/bin/runNDFD2IC4D.sh) hourly to download and ingest the latest hour’s NDFD forecast grids.  The process takes 1 argument, either NDFD or SREF.  The process downloads NDFD data from the NWS Telecommunications Gateway, decodes it, remaps it to the IC4D grid domain, and stores it in a new NDFD guidance database.  Logfiles for the ingest process can be found in /usr/local/ic4d/data/logfiles/YYYYMMDD.

Currently the NDFD elements are Wind and Wx.

## Other IC4D Features and CapabilitiesOther IC4D Guidance Sources – SREF (Vsby example)

**Notes:**
The user “ic4d” crontab launches a process (/usr/local/ic4d/bin/runNDFD2IC4D.sh) at 15Z to download and ingest the 09Z cycle run of the SREF .  The process takes 1 argument, either NDFD or SREF.  The process downloads SREF data from NCEP, decodes it, remaps it to the IC4D grid domain, and stores it in a new SREF guidance database.  Logfiles for the ingest process can be found in /usr/local/ic4d/data/logfiles/YYYYMMDD.

Currently, the SREF elements are Ceiling and Visibility.

## Probability of Low VIS (<1/2  Mile)

## Probability of low Ceilings (<500 feet)

## Cloud Tops (heights)

## -Fully Operational for AAWU forecasters by 2010?-Fully JPDO-4D Cube (Next GEN) status by 2012?