# Presentation: 341659

## Regional Scale Modeling for Multiple Stressors of Lake Erie

_**Joseph F. Koonce**_
**Case Western Reserve University**
_**Benjamin F. Hobbs**_
**Johns Hopkins University**

## State of Lake Erie Ecosystem

**Lake Erie is structurally and functionally unhealthy (i.e. impaired)**
**Limited resilience**
**Structural instability**
**Prevailing stress complex is currently unmanageable**
**Fish community unstable with cascade of effects**
**Management uncertainty**
**Confusion about important regulatory mechanisms**

## Project Goals

**Develop a regional-scale, stressor-response model for the management of the Lake Erie ecosystem**
**Stressors: land use changes, nutrients, habitat alteration, flow regime modification, exotic species, and fisheries exploitation**
**Incorporate model into a multi-objective decision making tool for use by Lake Erie managers**

## Project Task Structure

**Linking changes in watershed habitat and nutrient loading to Lake Erie ecosystem health**
**Quantifying uncertainties in model predictions and the effects of uncertainties on management decisions**
**Evaluating cross-scale interaction of stressors**
**Developing tools to evaluate ecological risk of land-use changes**
**Identifying and evaluate critical break-points in ecosystem and management integrity**

## Users

**Fisheries managers**
**Lake Erie Committee (GLFC)**
**State and Provincial natural resource agencies**
**Water quality managers**
**IJC (US EPA and Environment Canada)**
**EPA’s TMDL process**
**Planning and development agencies**
**Ohio Balanced Growth Initiative**
**Joyce Foundation funded initiative with watershed partnerships**

## Current Challenges

**Modeling**
**Explicit incorporation of scaling issues**
**Development of a hierarchical modeling architecture**
**Database development**
**Coordinating geodatabases**
**Framework for upscaling and downscaling**
**Incorporation of dynamic land cover changes**

- After Wu and David, 2002

## Current Challenges

**Modeling**
**Explicit incorporation of scaling issues**
**Development of a hierarchical modeling architecture**
**Database development**
**Coordinating geodatabases**
**Framework for upscaling and downscaling**
**Incorporation of dynamic land cover changes**

## Unified Modeling Framework

**Overall functional integration of habitat and Lake Erie ecosystem health**
**Linking landscape to whole lake processes**
**Determine cross-scale additivity of stressors**
**Database component**
**Fine scale classification of landscape**
**Biologically informed aggregation of landscape features**
**Ecological model**
**Hierarchical**
**Linked to management**

## Functional Integration of Habitat

## Function Integration of Lake Erie (LEEM)

## Object View of Framework

## Detailed Class Hierarchy

## Detailed Class Hierarchy

## Detailed Class Hierarchy

## DEVS Flow for Simulation Model

## Implement XML Based Metadata Repository

**Metadata for spatial data**
**XML specification of data for models**
**XML specification of data for queries**
**Metadata for model implementation**
**Model selection**
**Model assembly**
**Model driven architecture**
**Platform Independent Model**
**Platform Specific Model**
**Transformation through code generators**

## Consequences for QA/QC

**Versioning control**
**Analyses of parameter space**
**Documentation of parameter estimation procedures and data sources**
**Model selection criteria through contest of models.  Find levels of aggregation and the limits of their applicability**
**Hypothesis generation and design of monitoring strategy**

## Management Domain

**Fisheries**
**Harvest quotas**
**Fish community objectives**
**Management of exotics**
**Landuse change**
**Management of storm water runoff **
**Permitted changes**
**Mitigation priorities**
**Instream habitat alteration**
**Riparian corridors**
**Stream bank stabilization**** **

## Example of Decision Process

**Open Loop**
**Closed Loop**

## Example of Decision Process

**Open Loop**
**Closed Loop**

## Walleye Spawning Example

**Functional analysis of walleye spawning**
**Identification of habitat preferences for adults**
**Mapping of habitat supply**
**Prediction of larval mortality**
**Linking landuse change to critical habitat features**
**Prediction of consequences of alteration to reproductive success**

## Functional Analysis of Walleye Spawning

## Functional Analysis of Walleye Spawning

## Functional Analysis of Walleye Spawning

**Functional Analysis of Walleye Spawning**

## Functional Analysis of Walleye Spawning

## Functional Analysis of Walleye Spawning

## Short-term Outcome Issues

**Extrapolating from multiple scales of analysis**
**Functional approaches to landscape hierarchies**
**Interaction of multiple stressors**
**Linking watershed hydrology to whole lake effects at a range of spatial and temporal scales**
**Range of decision making alternatives**
**Priorities for mitigation, functional identification of priority conservation areas, and decision support system for land-use planning**
**Intermediate products**
**Multi-modeling framework based on open DEVS standards**

## Long-term Outcome Issues

**Ways to reduce uncertainty**
**Explicitly embracing uncertainty is the best way to reduce it**
**Seminal contribution**
**Assessment of cross-scale additivity of stressors**
**Application of model to monitoring**
**Value of information**
**Linking monitoring to expectations at various****   scales of resolution**

## Slide 29

## Functional Analysis of Walleye Spawning

## Functional Analysis of Walleye Spawning

**Wet Year**

**Dry Year**

- Chagrin River

## Functional Analysis of Walleye Spawning