# Presentation: 526689

## IOC Expert Missions
May-August, 2005

**May-August, 2005**

**UNESCO IOC TSUNAMI PROGRAMME**

- TSUNAMI EARLY
- WARNING SYSTEMS:

- Monitoring and Mitigating
- Tsunami Risk

## 2 TSUNAMI THREATS

***LOCAL / REGIONAL TSUNAMI:***
***  ******Generated nearby***
***  ******Strikes shore quickly (w/i minutes)***
***    ******=> NO TIME for official evacuation***
***  ******Damage only to limited area***
*  ****Education, Awareness, Immediate Response***
***DISTANT / OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI:***
***  ******Generated far away ***
***  ******Strikes shore later (2+ hours) ***
***    ******=> TIME for official evacuation***
***  ******Widespread Damage***
** *****Tsunami Warning Center***

***July 12, 1993,Japan Sea***

***December 26, 2004, Sumatra***

## Hazard Reduction Strategy:

**RECEIVE TSUNAMI WARNING MESSAGE                 FROM REGIONAL TWC  or OTHER NATION**
**     ****a. CONTRIBUTE DATA TO REGIONAL MONITORING NETWORKS (SEISMIC, SEA LEVEL)**
**     ****MAINTAIN LOCAL STATIONS**
**     ****b.  DO NOT HOST ANY  STATIONS**
**2.****	****MONITOR SEISMICITY REGIONALLY,                                             MONITOR SEA LEVELS REGIONALLY .**
**LOCATE AND EVALUATE EARTHQUAKES**
**EVALUATE TSUNAMIGENIC POTENTIAL**
**ISSUE TSUNAMI WARNINGS**
***	******	******	******	******	******	******     ******	*****	**

- Warning Guidance

## Hazard Reduction Strategy:

**    **_**COMPONENT**_**	****   **_**TECHNOLOGY**_**	**** **_**PRODUCT**_
**	*****	******	******	******	******	******	***
**2.****  ****WARNING****	****   ****• *****Measurement           • Early Detection***
***     *****GUIDANCE***** ******	******   *****• *****Telecomm                •  Real-Time Data***
***	******	******	******   *****• *****Numerical   ******	******         • Wave Forecast***
***	******	******	******     ******Simulation******	******         ******•****** ******Warning Dissem ***
***                                                                       “******to the last km”***
***	******	******	******	******	******	******     ******	*****	**

** **
**Hazard Reduction Strategy:**
**Warning Guidance**

***Local tsunamis***

***15 min***

***3***

***4 Hrs to Hawaii***

***60 min***

***15***

***Tele-tsunamis***

## What are the essential information for Civil Defense and the emergency plan ?

***The warning center must provide:***
***1) Information on the earthquake                                 - location and magnitude  ***
***2) Information on tsunami                                            - arrival time at coastal location                               - wave height at coastal location***
***3) Seriousness of the warning                                      - Evaluation of the danger                                         - Prediction of human (injuries, casualties,       rescues) and environmental/structural impact***

***(Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)***

***Dec 26, 2004,  ***
***Sri Lanka***

## HAZARD MITIGATION

**   ****Warning System alerts all persons on every vulnerable coast of imminent danger**
**  **
**Robust, extensive communications**
**Response must be:**
**Rapid (as soon as possible)**
**Accurate (minimize false warning)**
**Reliable (continuous operation)****  **
**Effective (to save lives)**
**Ocean-wide:  PTWC w/i 30 min**
**Regional        USA WC/ATWC, Japan NWPTIC,                                        **
**    ****and             France CPPT, Chile SHOA**
**National:        Russia, Peru w/i 10-15 min**
**Local:             Japan, USA, Chile w/i 5 min**

## THREE BASIC WARNING NEEDS

***  ***
- VERY RAPID                                           SEA LEVEL EVAL
- VERY RELIABLE           COMMUNICATIONS
***      ******Multi-national, Global Nets***
***      ******Real-time transmission***
***          ******(Radio, microwave, ***
***          ******landline/satellite phone, ***
***          ******satellite, Internet)***
***  ***
- ALL REQUIRED FOR WARNING

## Improving Warning Guidance

- Real-time, deep ocean, tsunami detection

## SIMPLE COLOR CODED LEVELS OF TSUNAMI WARNING 

**YELLOW:**
**Delay > 9 hours**
**and Mm >=  7.0**

**Warning at the Lab.                            Info to Civil Defense,                   High-Authorities**

**ORANGE:**
**Delay 3 - 6 hours**
**and Mm >=  8.0 **

**Severe danger of tsunami not yet confirmed.  Population is not yet informed.**

**RED:**
**Delay < 3 hours**
**or Mm >=  9.0 **

**Imminent danger (< 3 hours), or very severe danger of tsunami.  General warning for evacuation of population along coast, boats in harbor, airport.**

***(Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis)***

## Communication & Transmission of Tsunami Warning 

**Communication & Transmission of Tsunami Warning **
**to Localities & Civil Defense Authorities**

**Central Government**

**TV / Radio Station**

**TSUNAMI WARNING**

**Radio**

**TV****(****Telops, Warning maps****)**

**Local government**

*Cabinet Office Japan*

## Alert & Warning

**Alert & Warning**

**Getting warning to responders**
**Getting warning to public**
**Use table top exercises to identify problems and for training**
**Conduct drills in the community**
**Test the notification systems**

**Notes:**
NWR is an effective all-hazard alert & warning system in tsunami coastal communities
Local jurisdictions can/will be able to break into the NWR System via EAS to provide local information
It is an integral part of tsunami workshops and has become the primary means of alert & warning
Inexpensive receiver warns of a hazard prior to the mass media & county alerting system – additional time for people to react before danger hits their area
NWR is placed in schools, public buildings and businesses – public/private partnerships
Developing a NWR on a stick – system to be out this summer
Put on beach head approaches or areas highly visited and in tsunami inundation zone
NOTE:  For a local event, the earthquake is your warning and in the 1999 Grays Harbor EQ and Nisqually EQ people evacuated to higher ground – easier to send back home than to react too late
State/Local Tsunami Work Group developed a partnerships with the NWS, USN, coastal counties and tribes, and local businesses to provide complete NWR coverage of the Washington coast line and shipping lanes
First partnership in the nation to establish a system of weather, emergency alert and warning for the entire coast line of a state
A ceremony was held at the Quinaluet Nation where members were recognized for their contributions
Developed by Island County the program hardens the communities’ communications infrastructure to better facilitate visitors/ access to emergency information
NWRs is installed in designated “Emergency Information Centers” such as visitors’ centers, hotels, marinas, parks, gas stations and grocery stores.  The NWR placard is visibly posted in these sites alerting visitors that the facility has a NWR
Brochures regarding this program are distributed through the county by the local Chambers of Commerce

## Keys to System Effectiveness:

- People drive All Hazards Response

***Warning System Design:***
*** ******Feedback Loop –                         ***
***    ******is it working – if not, why?***
*** ******Scientist – Public interaction***
***Response System should be:******   ***
*** ******Robust, Rapid                   ***
*** ******Well-organized ***
*** ******Appropriate for country***
***Community Issues:***
*** ******Suffer main impact***
*** ******Spec issues-women, poverty***
*** ******Each community unique ***
*** ******They are the first responders***
*** ******Empowerment, risk tolerance***

*OFDA, USA*

## >> Multiple solutions must be available                                             

**- Layered - from ground up and top down; **
**- From the local out to the regional;**** **
**- From the central outward - hub and spoke system**
***>> Multiple solutions must be available                                             ***

***... ******Every Economy/Community******   ***
***     ******has ******different requirements******   ***
***     ******and****** ******different challenges.******  ***
***     ******There is****** ******no single solution,******    ***
***     ******but all solutions must***
***     ******work together – ***

**RANET Project:  Satellite broadcast of environmental data**

## TSUNAMI WARNING LIMITATIONS

**Too sparse sea level data  (wait too long)**
**Teletsunami forecasting only beginning    (warning accuracy poor)**** **
**Difficult to warn and educate for local tsunami.  (no warning where biggest impact)**
**Miss landslide-generated tsunamis (underwarn)**

**TSUNAMI WARNING LIMITATIONS**

*BALANCE # FALSE WARNINGS & MISSED EVTS*
*  **False Warnings will occur –                                       *
*  **Prepare, Educate Public, Media, Emergency Mgrs         *
*  **1994 Hawaii false warning cost USD $75M*

## AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM  WILL SAVE LIVES - Requirements

**1.  Warning – local (educate), distant (monitoring center)**
**2.  Dissemination -**
**     ****Recognized National Authority receives Warning, and**
**        ****immediately evaluates to issue Public Advisory**
**     ****Communities receive Public Advisory, and **
**        ****immediately takes public safety action (evacuate)**
** *****For an appropriate response,***
***	******- government must understand phenomena, ***
***	******      ******and limitations of impact prediction, ***
***	******- have already practiced response plan,***
***	******- have already educated and prepared public,***
***	******- have already minimized impact through***
***            ******pre-disaster mitigation***
***	******- during - afterward, be prepared to explain to highest   ***
***           ******government leaders and public why decisions made***

## IMPLEMENTING an EFFECTIVE EWS

**TWO ENTITIES CRITICAL (Pacific experience):**
**1.  ****	****WARNING CENTER**** ****provides warning guidance including Basin-wide warnings, sub-regional warnings**
**2.****	****NDMO ****disseminates public message, communicates hazard and risk, provides preparedness guidance, works to ensure effective sustainable system**
** **
**BOTH MUST WORK CLOSELY TOGETHER**
**3.****	****EWS SUSTAINABLE – ALL-HAZARDS APPROACH**
**4.****	****REGIONAL COORDINATION AND DATA SHARING ESSENTIAL, esp for regional and distant tsunamis.**
*28 March 2005:  System worked and was exercised, *
*but FALSE WARNINGS must be minimized*
*Credibility of warning center*
*Economic Impact – Hawaii, US $75 million in 1994*