# Presentation: 546037

## Aviation ForecastsandMaster PlansSouthwest Region Partnership Conference 2005

**Steven Urlass****	****Ben Guttery****	****	****March 9, 2005**

## Importance of Master Planning

**Plan for the short-, medium- and long-term development of an airport**
- Supports modernization of existing airports
- Contains the details, logic and justification for the plan
**Problem solving document**
- Focus the direction of the airport
- Guidelines for future development to meet demand
**Forms the basis for follow-on work**
- Environmental processing, Benefit Cost Analyses, etc.
**Graphically depicts future development**
- Airport Layout Plan (ALP)
- Shows existing physical layout and future development

## Why Update of the AC

**Replaces AC 150/5070-6A**
**Last updated in 1985**
**Dated, but not out of date**
- Continues to provide a good approach
**Improve the planning process**
**Doing fewer full Master Plans**
- Focusing on development of existing airports
**Has not kept pace with changes in planning techniques**

## Approach to the New AC

**Flexible approach**
- Can be applied to airports of all sizes
**Structured into two parts**
- Part 1 – Pre-planning – Work scope, grant application, public coordination, consultant selection  (Chapters 1-3)
- Part 2 – Elements of a Master Plan – Inventory, forecasts, alternatives, ALP (Chapters 4-12)
**Will incorporate by reference**
- Will not attempt to rewrite pertinent documents

## Greater Emphasis on Pre-planningAdvisory Circular Chapters 1 through 3

**Partnership between the sponsor and the FAA**
**Information on scoping**
- Establish goals and objectives
**Level of effort**
- Full master plan versus an update
**Purpose oriented planning**
- Is there a specific issue or problem?
**Support of other interested groups**
- Who needs to be involved?

## Example of Pre-planning Establish an Instrument Approach Procedure

**What is driving the need for a procedure?**
**What level of detail is needed?**
**Are the existing conditions at the airport known? **
**Is the need an upgrade or an new procedure?**
**Who needs to be involved?**
**Finally, develop the scope of work.**

## Elements of a Master Plan Advisory Circular Chapters 4 through 12

**Include the chapters that typically make up a Master Plan**
- inventory, forecasts, facility needs, etc.
**A flexible approach is the theme**
- Repeated throughout the AC
**May not need to include every chapter**
- Based on the pre-planning, include appropriate chapters
**Specific chapter elements linked to overall study**
- For example, do the forecasts affect the alternatives development?

## Aviation Forecasts

**Form the basis for effective planning decisions**
- Facility needs, environmental processing, BCA
**Included in updates to the TAF and NPIAS**
**Forecasts developed in accordance to the level of effort**
- Use of existing forecasts
- Need for detailed and elaborate forecasts
- Range of forecasts

## Forecasting Aviation Demand

**APO-110 report “Forecast Aviation Activity by Airport”**
- Guidance in preparing and reviewing forecasts
- Identifies the steps to develop a usable forecast
- Identifies data sources for the various activity parameters
- Discusses forecast methods and applicability
- The 2 templates should be completed
- Summarizing and documenting airport planning forecasts
- Comparing airport planning and TAF Forecasts
- http://api.hq.faa.gov/Contracts/AF1.Doc

## Forecast Approvals

**Required before moving onto subsequent sections of a master plan**
**Approval of a forecast requires:**
- Supported by acceptable analyses
- Consistent with the TAF, the Agency’s official forecast
**Guidance memo dated December 23, 2004**
- www.faa.gov/arp/planning/index.cfm?ARPnav=plan

## Expectations of a Master Plan

**Planning should be done in the master plan**
- Establish goals and objective
- Avoid subsequent new work
**Too much planning being done in follow-on work**
- Justification
- Purpose and Need
- Forecasts
- Alternatives

## FAA Approval Actions

**No approval authority over master plans**
- Can only accept the plan
**Approve the forecasts**
- Form the basis for other elements of the plan
- Used to update the TAF and the NPIAS
**Approve the ALP**
- Conditional – environmental processing is required
- Unconditional –environmental processing has been completed

## A Few Nasty Details

**Pre-planning with FAA**** **
- Scope
- Expectations
- Needs
**Role of FAA in Process****	**** **
- Big
- Little
- Something in Between

## A Few More Nasty Details

**Support Benefit Cost Analysis**
**Purpose and Need**
**Airport Layout Plans**
- Review of Draft
- Airspace
- Approval
- Distribution / Electronic Files

## A Couple More

**Forecasts**
- Handouts
- Get FAA Approval
**Reasonable Capital Plans**
**Upload ODO Data**