# Presentation: 216425

## Forecasting smoke and dust using HYSPLIT

## Experimental testing phase began March 28, 2006 
Run daily at NCEP using the 6Z cycle to produce a 24-hr analysis and a 48-hr forecast

**Experimental testing phase began March 28, 2006 **
**Run daily at NCEP using the 6Z cycle to produce a 24-hr analysis and a 48-hr forecast**

*Computational Cycle*** **

**All smoke particles and continuous fires initialize the next day’s calculation**

**Smoke Forecast System**

- Satellite detection of fire location and heat released
- Calculation of emissions
- HYSPLIT run
- Statistics calculation
- Web distribution

*Daily Procedure*** **

## Hazard Mapping System

- The smoke outlines are produced manually, primarily utilizing animated visible band satellite imagery.
- The locations of fires that are producing smoke emissions that can be detected in the satellite imagery are incorporated into a special HMS file that only denotes fires that are producing smoke emissions.
- These fire locations are used as input to the HYSPLIT model.

## Emissions

- Fire locations from Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/hms.html)
- The fire position data representing individual pixel hot-spots that correspond to visible smoke are aggregated on a 20 km resolution grid.
- Each fire location pixel is assumed to represent one km2 and 10% of that area is assumed to be burning at any one time.
- PM2.5 emission rate is estimated from the USFS Blue Sky (http://www.airfire.org/bluesky) emission algorithm, which includes a fuel type data base and consumption and emissions models

## HYSPLIT

- Mass distribution:
- Horizontal: Top hat
- Vertical: 3D Particle
- Number of lagrangian particles per hour: 500
- Produces surface to 100 m and surface to 5000 m 1-hr average PM2.5 concentrations on a 15-km resolution grid
- Meteorology: WRF-NMM (AQF version) 12 km and GFS meteorology (outside the WRF-NMM domain) 1 degree.
- Release height: assumed to be equal to the final buoyant plume rise height as computed using Briggs (1969), implying that the final rise is a function of the estimated fire heat release rate, the atmospheric stability, and the wind speed.
- Smoke particles are assumed to have a diameter of 0.8 m with a density of 2 g/cc
- Wet removal is much more effective than dry deposition and smoke particles in grid cells that have reported precipitation may deposit as much as 90% of their mass within a few hours

## NWS distribution

## Results display

## Statistics

## Dust forecasting system

- PM10 originated from northern Africa.
- Meteorology:  GFS (Global Forecasting System) model 50x50 km
- Daily runs HYSPLIT (forecast 24 hours)
- Output and postprocessing
- Web posting

## Dust emissions

- Emisions based on desert land use (spatial reolution 1x1 degree)
- F = 0.01 u*4, Westphal et al. (1987)
- Dust emissions only occur during dry days when the friction velocity exceeds the threshold value (0.28 m/s for an active sand sheet).
- The maximum flux permitted is 1 mg m-2 s-1.

## HYSPLIT settings description

- Mass distribution:
- Horizontal: Top hat
- Vertical: 3D Particle
- Number of lagrangian particles per hour: variable
- Produces surface to 100 m and surface to 5000 m 1-hr average PM10 concentrations on a 100-km resolution grid
- Wet removal is much more effective than dry deposition and dust particles in grid cells that have reported precipitation may deposit as much as 90% of their mass within a few hours

## Example of Saharan intrusion