# Presentation: 516999

## THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

**PROBABILISTIC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH IMPACT EVENTS (THORPEX)**
**Goal**: Provide highest quality, coordinated, and seamless *probabilistic automated guidance products,* including information on forecast uncertainty
**Deliverable**: Comprehensive suite of ensemble forecast systems (“forecast engine”) that facilitate the generation of automated forecast guidance as a basis for high impact event forecasting for NOAA operations regarding high impact events
**Range of use**: All high impact weather, water, and climate forecast applications

**THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14**

## THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

***Time/spatial scales: All spatial and time scales, including***** **
- Now-casting (6-12 hrs, local scale modeling)
- Short range (up to 3 days, regional modeling)
- Medium- and extended range (up to 15 days, global modeling)
- Sub-seasonal (10-60 days, coupled global ocean / land surface / atmosphere modeling)
- Seasonal (2-12 months, coupled global OLA modeling)
***New aspects of forecast process***
- Integrated from observations to user applications
- Focused on high impact events
- Probabilistic to capture forecast uncertainty
- Seamless guidance from minutes to seasons
- Adaptive to provide best case dependent info
- User controllable to cater to users’ needs

**THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14**

## THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

- Design of observing system for high impact events
- Development of observing instruments/platforms capable of filling gaps in current system (STI)
- Optimal design of satellite & in-situ observing network (EMP)
- Adaptive collection and processing of observations (EMP)
- Ensemble-based data assimilation techniques
- Ensemble-based forecast error covariance (EMP)
- Initial ensemble perturbations (EMP)
- Numerical modeling for high impact events
- Ensemble techniques for high impact applications, e.g., air quality / dispersion, tropical cyclones, extra-tropical storms and other events, fire weather (EMP)
- Model-related uncertainties in ensemble forecasting (EMP)
- Variable-resolution modeling for high impact events (EMP)
- Socio-economic applications
- Statistical bias correction of lead time dependent systematic errors (EMP)
- Downscaling to fine resolution information (EMP)
- Combination of all forecast information (EMP)
- Product generation (EMP / STI)
- User applications - Decision Support Systems (STI)

**THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14**

## THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

- Possible new probabilistic guidance products for high impact events
- Hydrometeorology
- Extreme hydro-meteorological events, incl. dry and wet spells (CONUS)
- Quantitative extreme river flow forecasting (Outside the US)
- Tropical / winter storm prediction
- Extreme surface wind speed
- Precipitation: type & extreme amounts (related to wet spells)
- Storm surge & wave height
- Severe weather
- Fire weather index
- Combined severe weather index
- Aviation forecasting
- Flight restriction
- Icing, visibility, fog, clear air & convective turbulence
- Health / public safety and economic impact
- Hot and cold spells
- Air quality
- “Legacy” internal probabilistic scores to assess long-term progress
- General circulation
- Probabilistic 1000 & 500 hPa height forecasts
- Tropical/extra-tropical storms
- Strike probability for track
- Probability of intensity (central pressure or wind-based)

**THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14**

## THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

- NWS Forecast Uncertainty Service Evolution –
- NFUSE Steering Team Provides: Coordination within NWS and the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise a process for assessing, communicating, and using forecast uncertainty information;
- NFUSE Team receives: Comprehensive plans on automated generation of probabilistic guidance for high impact events, to be coordinated with “human factor” (LFW) and outreach (conveying and using uncertainty information) components of NFUSE process
- W&W – LFW Provides: Requirements and primary application area for probabilistic numerical guidance products;
- LFW Receives: High quality probabilistic numerical guidance for high impact weather forecast applications on all spatial/time scales.
- LFW considers distribution within NWS, manipulation (adding value), display, depository, verification of ensemble forecast data, and training of forecasters
- W&W – STI Observing Programs
- STI Observing programs provide: Development of adaptively configurable new observing instruments and platforms;
- STI Observing Programs Receive: NWP guidance on optimal configuration of observing network
- W&W – STI Socioeconomic Applications Activities
- STI Socioeconomic applications provide: Advice on forecast products, development of decision support tools, outreach to external users;
- STI Receives: Probabilistic/ensemble numerical guidance for HMT and other demo projects

**THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14**

## THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

- W&W - Hydrology
- Hydrology Provides: Major area of quantitative high impact applications in water management / drought prediction;
- Hydrology Receives: Bias corrected and downscaled precipitation and other relevant probabilistic / ensemble forecasts to be used as forcing in hydrological modeling and drought forecast applications
- W&W – Air Quality (AQ)
- AQ Provides: Important application in area affecting public health and safety;
- Air Quality Receives: High quality probabilistic / ensemble forecast information to be coupled with AQ modeling system for Homeland Security and other dispersion plume applications
- Climate Goal – Predictions and Projections Program
- Climate Goal Predictions/Projections Provides: Important application area for ensemble and probabilistic forecast concepts, coupling of atmospheric model with ocean and land surface components, and re-forecasting research (identified as a gap for THORPEX);
- Predictions and Projections Program receives: Ensemble and probabilistic methods suitable for sub-seasonal and seasonal operational forecasting, contributing to seamless weather-climate forecasting capabilities
- Climate Goal - Climate Observations and Analysis (COA) Program
- COA Provides: Archive and distributed web services access to ensemble forecasts through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS);
- COA Receives: Archive of seamless suite of weather / water/ climate forecasts

**THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14**

## THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14

- Commerce & Transportation Goal – Aviation Program
- Aviation Program Provides: Application area critical to transportation;
- Aviation Program Receives: Probabilistic / ensemble numerical guidance for aviation-related parameters
-  Commerce & Transportation Goal – Marine Program
- Marine Program Provides: Application area critical to transportation;
- Marine Program Receives: Probabilistic / ensemble numerical guidance for marine transportation-related parameters
- Building Community Resilience in the Face of Coastal Hazards – Coastal Resilience
- Coastal resilience Provides: Critical application area for probabilistic forecast activities;
- Coastal Resilience Receives: Early numerical warning for high impact events

**THORPEX PPBES INITIATIVE, FY10-14**