# Presentation: 802203

**Notes:**
This is how I got involved in global warming.  Climate models do not account for this variation.

## since 1860

**Notes:**
Al Gore shows this plot in his movie “An Inconvenient Truth.”  As soon as the plot is off screen, he states that the warmest year ever was 2005.  
How?  Well, this is the plot used by the IPCC.  James Hansen produces his own plot, and that shows the peak at 2005.  So Gore quotes that value.  I’ll talk more about the selective use of data later.

## monthly temperature

**Notes:**
This is monthly, and without the line to guide the eye.

## Ice Age Return?

## Mann Stick

**Notes:**
note 1998 level.  Really scared people.

## C-14

**C-14**
**variations**
**with time**

- P.E. Damon and C.P. Sonett, Solar and terrestrial components of the atmospheric 14C variation spectrum, in The Sun in Time, eds. C.P. Sonett, M.S. Giampapa and M.S. Matthews, University of Arizona Press, Tucson (1991).

## Turkey

## Mann Stick

**Notes:**
note 1998 level.  Really scared people.

## A brief history of climate

## 1865

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 1850

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 1835

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 1800

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 1750

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 1700

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 1650

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 1600

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 1400

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 1200

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 1000

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

**the “hockey** **stick”**

## 1000

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 800

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

**other records?**

**Notes:**
Medieval “optimum”

## 500

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## 0

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -500

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -1000

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -2K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -4K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -7K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## Agri begins.  Why?

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -9K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -10K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -10K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -10K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -10K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -10K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -10K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -11K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -12K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -14K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## Ice Age

**Ice Age: **
**glaciers &**
**coast line**

## -17K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -20K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

## -40K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

- kiloyears BCE

- 10

- 20

- 30

- 40

- 0

**Notes:**
The regularity here has led to a whole series of nonsensical articles and even a book on the 1500 year cycle.  Dan Karner and I did an analysis of this that we hoped would end it.

## -70K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

- kiloyears BCE

- 20

- 40

- 60

- 0

## -90K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

- kiloyears BCE

- 20

- 40

- 60

- 80

- 0

**Notes:**
The articles assume the 1500 yr cycle endures forever.  We showed it was just here.  It was a fluctuation.  Analyze the whole period and it shows up.  Not significant.

## -120 interglac

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

- kiloyears BCE

- 25

- 50

- 75

- 100

- 0

- vostok
- deuterium

- Greenland
- O-18

**Notes:**
Ah.  The end.  Another warm period.  Switch to antarctica.  No problem.

## -140K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

- kiloyears BCE

- 25

- 50

- 75

- 100

- 125

- 0

- vostok
- deuterium

- Greenland
- O-18

## -250K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

- kiloyears BCE

- 50

- 150

- 250

- 100

- 200

- 0

## -350K

- Isotopic variation

- Relative temperature (C)

- kiloyears BCE

- 100

- 200

- 300

- 0

**Notes:**
What causes these cycle?  The “standard model” fails badly.  

## Mann Stick

## IPCC predictions

## Technology Review articles

## Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrickMonte Carlo results

**Notes:**
Not very impressive?

## NRC T(t)

**Notes:**
hockey stick was California Bristlecone Pines
Concluded that Mann had underestimated errors.  Highest now?  Can’t say.  Only 400 years.

## So What?

## C-14 variations

**Notes:**
Solar activity (measured by C-14) relates to climate.

## sunspots

## sunspots

**Notes:**
How much of the global warming from 1900 to 1970 is due to solar effects?

## Warming only since 1970?

**Notes:**
Human Global warming USED to be from 1880.   Now it really goes from around 1970 to the present.
2 sigma effect.  
Olivier Boucher (Head Climate Chemistry and Ecosystems) 
Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Met Office

## CO2 no offset

## spectral windows

## Greenhouseeffect 

- sunlight

**atmosphere**

- IR to space

**Earth**

**H****2****O, CO****2****, O****3**

**Physics calculation:**
**T increase by factor of about sqrt(sqrt(2)) **
**=  56C **
**=  100 F**

**(Car in parking lot effect)**

**Notes:**
Car in parking lot effect

## Warming only since 1970?

**Notes:**
Human Global warming USED to be from 1880.   Now it really goes from around 1970 to the present.
2 sigma effect.  
Olivier Boucher (Head Climate Chemistry and Ecosystems) 
Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Met Office

## Warming only since 1970?

**Notes:**
Human Global warming USED to be from 1880.   Now it really goes from around 1970 to the present.
2 sigma effect.  
Olivier Boucher (Head Climate Chemistry and Ecosystems) 
Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Met Office

## clouds

**Cloud cover:**
**the big unknown**
- Is cloud cover changing due to other effects -- either solar, or random, or ...?

**2% change in cloud cover would overwhelm human CO****2**

## Radiative Forcings 2007

**Notes:**
Olivier Boucher (Head Climate Chemistry and Ecosystems)  Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Met Office
Look at aerosols and cloud albedo.  That’s the source of the error.  !!Note 2 SIGMA!!  “Very likely” (vs. “likely”).
Halocarbons: fluoomethane

## Svensmark & Friis-Christensen

## since 1860

**Notes:**
Look at the fluctuations.  Why was 1998 the warmest ever?  My guess: cloud cover.  Driven?  Unstable?  Random? 

## Warming only since 1970?

**Notes:**
Human Global warming USED to be from 1880.   Now it really goes from around 1970 to the present.
2 sigma effect.  
Olivier Boucher (Head Climate Chemistry and Ecosystems) 
Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Met Office

## Acidify theOceans?

- The direct effects of CO2 on ocean acidity

**Notes:**
Olivier Boucher (Head Climate Chemistry and Ecosystems) 
Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Met Office

## Anecdotes

**Notes:**
2 sigma effect?  So -- add lots of anecdotes!
The problem is cherrypicking.  

## Berkeley snow

**Berkeley 1885**
**Looking East on Durant.  Steeple is 1st Congregational Church at Durant & Dana. **

## swim suits

## Larsen Ice 1

- Jan 31
- 2002

- Larsen B
- Ice Shelf

## Larsen Ice 2

- Feb 17

## Larsen Ice 3

- Feb 23

## Larsen Ice 4

- March 5

- 1255
- square
- miles
- 650 feet
- thick
- 720 billion
- tons

## Amery Ice

## Antarctica losing ice mass

- Antarctic Ice Sheet Losing Mass, According to CU-Boulder Study March 2, 2006 University of Colorado at Boulder researchers have used data from a pair of NASA satellites orbiting Earth in tandem to determine that the Antarctic ice sheet, which harbors 90 percent of Earth's ice, has lost significant mass in recent years.
- The team used measurements taken with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, to conclude the Antarctic ice sheet is losing up to 36 cubic miles of ice, or 152 cubic kilometers, annually. By comparison, the city of Los Angeles uses about 1 cubic mile of fresh water annually. "This is the first study to indicate the total mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is in significant decline," said Isabella Velicogna of CU-Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, chief author of the new study that appears in the March 2 online issue of Science Express.
- The study was co-authored by CU-Boulder physics Professor John Wahr of CIRES, a joint campus institute of CU-Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The estimated ice mass in Antarctica is equivalent to 0.4 millimeters of global sea rise annually, with a margin of error of 0.2 millimeters, according to the study. There are about 25 millimeters in an inch.
- The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, completed in 2001, predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate. But the new study signals a reduction in the continent's total ice mass, with the bulk of loss occurring in the West Antarctic ice sheet, said Velicogna.
- Researchers used GRACE data to calculate the total ice mass in Antarctica between April 2002 and August 2005 for the study, said Velicogna, who also is affiliated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

- predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate

## Inconvenient Truth CO2 & T

**from “An Inconvenient Truth” by Al Gore**

**     “****Here is an important point.  If my classmate from sixth grade were to see this -- you remember, the guy who asked about South America and Africa [continental drift] -- he would ask, “Did they ever fit together?**
**    “****The answer from the scientists would be, ‘Yes, they do fit together.’  **
**      “****It’s a complicated relationship, but the most important part of it is this: When there is more CO****2**** in the atmosphere, the temperature increases because more heat from the sun is trapped inside....**
**    “****There is not a single part of this graph -- no fact, date, or number -- that is controversial in any way or is disputed by anybody.**
**    “****To the extent that there is a controversy at all, it is that a few people in some of the less responsible coal, oil, and utility companies say, ‘So what? That’s not going to cause any problem.’**
**    “****But if we allow this to happen, it would be deeply and unforgivably immoral.”**
**	**

**Carbon Dioxide and**** ****Temperature**

**Notes:**
60% increase in CO2 when ice ages terminated.
Temperature peak-to-peak is 6-10 C.  Why have we not warmed up by 6-10C already?

## CO2 lags climate

**N. Caillon et al., *****Science***** vol **299**, 1728, 14 March 2003 **

**Temperature change precedes CO****2**** change by 800 ± 200 yrs**
** **

**Notes:**
Note that the CO2 is offset to show the fit.  The CO2 lags the temperature by 800 ± 200 years.  It takes about 800 years for the oceans to overturn so that the warm temperatures can cause the dissolved CO2 to be emitted.  

## Greenland

**“****Tony Blair's scientific advisor has said that because of what is happening in Greenland right now, the maps of the World will have to be redrawn.**
**“****If Greenland melted or broke up and slipped into the sea -- or if half of Greenland and half of Antarctica melted or broke up and slipped into the sea, sea levels worldwide would increase by between 18 and 20 feet.**

**Al Gore -- *****An Inconvenient Truth***

**Calculations by the Hadley Center**
**for Climate Change, Met Office**

**Notes:**
Olivier Boucher (Head Climate Chemistry and Ecosystems) 
Note: Al Gore’s statement is true.  It wakes people up.  But they come away thinking this is imminent.

## Thermohaline Circulation Turn off?

- Atlantic ocean circulationpredicted to declinebut not switch off

**Notes:**
This is the thermohaline circulation.  Gore shows this circulations and implies (but doesn’t state) that global warming is likely to turn it off, perhaps triggering a sudden ice age.  This was the theme of the movie, “The Day After Tomorrow.”  But the Hadley Centre calculations say that it won’t happen.
Plot from Olivier Boucher (Head Climate Chemistry and Ecosystems) 
Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Met Office

## Intense hurricanes

**Notes:**
Is there an observational bias?   Inconvenient: the number of severe hurricanes has increased over the past 40 years.
Convenient: No increase in hurricanes in the last 17 years, when global warming took off.
Poles warm up more than tropics.  So temperature differences should decrease.  Reduce storms?

## NOAA Annual PublicationThe Climate of 2006

**Notes:**
Put out by the US govt every year.  The following plots come from it.  It puts no spin on the results.

## wildfires - both plots

## tornadoes

**Notes:**
Gore says that the number of tornadoes has increased.  The US publication only shows strong tornadoes, and those have been decreasing.  Cherry picking by Gore?

## Asian Soot

**Notes:**
This article suggests that the warming of Alaska may be caused by pollution from China, rather than being the “canary” in the mine.

## rainfall

**Notes:**
Notice the great drought?  Scientists can lose credibility when they exaggerate the significance of two sigma events.

## since 1860

**Notes:**
Al Gore shows this plot in his movie “An Inconvenient Truth.”  As soon as the plot is off screen, he states that the warmest year ever was 2005.  
How?  Well, this is the plot used by the IPCC.  James Hansen produces his own plot, and that shows the peak at 2005.  So Gore quotes that value.  I’ll talk more about the selective use of data later.

**Notes:**
Many people are hoping this recent trend will reverse.  

## Hansen plot revised

**Notes:**
Apocalypse predictions can discredit us.  Predictions of Jim Hansen.  The data are a better fit to his lowest curve, the one that assumed no CO2 after 1990.

## Playing with dynamite 

- We are adding enough CO2 to the atmosphere that we need to worry.

**Notes:**
Will that convince the public to ratify Kyoto?  No.  

## What do we do?

**Conservation**
**China**
**Carbon Credits**
**Clean Coal**

**C****6**

**Notes:**
Send money to China.
Can’t do directly.  Do with carbon credits.
Coal and Conservation and Carbon Credits.  I left biofuels off the list because they don’t begin with C.  

## World energy use

**(plot courtesy of Steve Koonin, BP)**

## oil forever

**(Chart courtesy of Steve Koonin, BP)**

**Notes:**
EOR is Enhanced Oil Recovery
WEO is World Economic Outlook (by IMF)
We will not run out of expensive oil, only cheap oil.

## cost of coal

| fuel | market cost | cost per kWh (1000 Cal) | cost if converted to electricity |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| coal | $40 per ton | 0.6¢ | 1.8¢ |
| natural gas | $10 per million cubic feet | 3¢ | 9¢ |
| gasoline | $3 per gallon | 9¢ | 27¢ |
| electricity | $0.10 per kWh | 10¢ | 10¢ |

**Notes:**
Plug-in hybrids make NO sense when you include the limited recharge lifetime of the batteries.  Numbers for Li-Ion reliable (non-Chinese) computer battery:
60 whr recharged 700 times is a total of 42 kWh.  The battery replacement is $120.  That’s about $3 per kWh!  Don’t plug in your hybrid!

## The Kyoto Treaty

**Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO****2**** 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010)**

*The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change*

## The Kyoto Treaty

**Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO****2**** 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010)**
**Ratified by 164 nations  (US signed but didn’t ratify)**

*The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change*

## The Kyoto Treaty

**Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO****2**** 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010)**
**Ratified by 164 nations  (US signed but didn’t ratify)**
**No restrictions on China or India**

*The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change*

## The Kyoto Treaty

**Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO****2**** 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010)**
**Ratified by 164 nations  (US signed but didn’t ratify)**
**No restrictions on China or India**
**US Senate Byrd-Hagel resolution: 95-0 ****binding targets and timetables for developing nations**

*The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change*

**Notes:**
unanimous.  Byrd-Hagel 1997.  Gore signed in 1998, but he indicated agreement with the Byrd-Hagel amendment:
The United States should not be a signatory to any protocol to, or other agreement regarding, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of 1992, at negotiations in Kyoto in December 1997, or thereafter, which would . . . mandate new commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the Annex I parties (developed countries) unless the protocol or other agreement also mandates new specific scheduled commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions for developing country parties within the same compliance period.

## The Kyoto Treaty

**Legally binds industrialized nations to reduce CO****2**** 5% below 1990 emissions in next decade (29% real cut 2010)**
**Ratified by 164 nations  (US signed but didn’t ratify)**
**No restrictions on China or India**
**US Senate Byrd-Hagel resolution: 95-0 **

*The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change*

## The Kyoto Treaty

**China: currently building one new gigawatt coal power plant every *****week*****...**
**plus two new gigawatt nuclear reactors per year.**

*The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change*

## China and India

- (Numbers courtesy of Steve Koonin, BP)

**21****st**** century emissions from the Developing World will surpass those of Industrialized World 2015-2025**
*Developing world emissions growing at 2.8% *
*	**vs industrialized world growing at 1.2%*
**Sobering facts**
- When Developing World carbon ≥ Industrial World carbon, each 10% reduction in industrial world emissions is 		overcome by *< 4 years* of developing world growth
- If China’s (or India’s) per capita emissions were those of Japan, global emissions would be 40% higher than today

**Notes:**
Slide courtesy of Steve Koonin, BP

## The Kyoto Treaty

*The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change*

- If global warming is caused by greenhouse emissions, and the US ratifies the treaty, then the temperature rise will be delayed by at most, a few years.
*Unless China and India agree to reductions, use non-yet existing conservation techniques, or sequester.*

## A Really Inconvenient Truth

- Large reserves of natural oil are recoverable 	at $50-70 /bbl
- Fisher-Tropsch process allows diesel to be made from coal at about $40-$50 bbl
- done by Nazis in WWII
- done by South Africa for last several decades

- We are not going to run out of fossil fuels!

- The future of global warming -- if human caused -- depends on China and India.

- Who will pay?

## China CO2 surpassing US

**China CO****2**** **
**surpasses **
**US  CO****2**
**in 2007?**

## IGCC integrated gas combined cycle

**Notes:**
This is the layout of the IGCC power plant.  (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle -- look it up in Wikipedia.)

## Energy flow

**Notes:**
Biofuels? Yes, they must be a part.  They are not the solution.  Will help oil independence.  Must be cheaper than Fisher-Tropsch.

## Global Warminga bigger issue:

- What is the proper role of scientists?

- ... to analyze dispassionately and report without prejudice?_x0003_

- ... to spin the results to avoid the risk that the public will misinterpret or underestimate the dangers?

- or

**Notes:**
Most of the global warming experts chose the latter.  That really concerns me.
We must not do that among ourselves.

- from
*An Inconvenient Truth*
- by Al Gore

- Josh Billings
- (a 19th century humorist)

** **The trouble with most folks isn’t so               much their ignorance --
- it’s known’ so many things that ain’t so.

**Notes:**
I checked this quote years ago with the UC Berkeley Mark Twain project.
Then I found a descendant of Josh Billings. 

## What do we do?

**Conservation**
**Chinese Clean Coal**
**Carbon Credits**

**C****5**

**Notes:**
Photo shows compact fluorescent lights in Notre Dame de Paris.  
We need to send money to China.  Can’t do directly.  Do with carbon credits.
Coal and Conservation and Carbon Credits

**1998 was the warmest year on record!**

**Is another cooling spell possible?****  **

## CO2 for 550 Myr Rohde

## 65 Myr climate Rohde

**plot by Robert Rohde, Wikipedia**

## sea level rise

**plot by Robert Rohde, Wikipedia**

## cloud numbers

|  |  |  | High
thin | High
thick | middle
thin | middle
thick | all low
clouds | Total |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| global fraction (%) |  |  | +10.1 | +8.6 | +10.7 | +7.3 | +26.6 | +63 |
| Forcing
Albedo (W/m2) |  |  | -4.1 | -15.6 | -3.7 | -9.9 | -20.2 | -53.5 |
| Outgoing IR (W/m2) |  |  | +6.5 | +8.6 | +4.8 | +2.4 | +3.5 | +25.8 |
| Net forcing (W/m2) |  |  | 2.4 | -7.0 | +1.1 | -7.5 | -16.7 | -27.7 |

**Role of clouds**

**c.f. insolation variations rms = 18 W/m****2**

## Havana

**Havana 2003 (vs 1850)**