# Presentation: 079880

## Linda Joyce 
Rocky Mountain Research Station,
USDA FS

September 4, 2008

- Rocky Mountain Research Station,
- USDA FS
- September 4, 2008

-  Climate Change and Rangelands
- Information for Adaptation

## Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE)

- Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE)
- Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA (summer, 2008)

- 9:00 am — 11:00 pm: **Presentations by David Williams and Steve Gray (Univ. of WY),  Alan Knapp (CO State Univ.), Jack Morgan (USDAARS)**

## Information from Previous Talks

- Information on the effects of climate change on western rangelands
- Developed through experimentation, testing hypotheses, analyzing data, exploring results
- The scientific process – takes data and develops information.

## Information for Adaptation

**Planning for Climate Change**
**Assessing **_**vulnerability**_
- How might this be explored?
_**Adaptive Capacity**_
- What influences this?
**Adaptation**
**Reflections on Past Experiences**
**And the process of taking data to develop information to make management decisions**

## Adaptation to Climate Change

- Takes place through adjustments
- 	to reduce vulnerability or to enhance resilience
- 	in response to observed or expected changes in climate and associated extreme weather events
- To minimize the impact or harm and
- To capitalize on opportunities.

- IPCC WGII 2007

**Increased use of artificial snow by Alpine ski industry**

**Notes:**
Actual adjustments or changes in decision environments which might ultimately enhance resilience or reduce vulnerability to observed or expected changes in climate.
Can be differentiated (or integrated) along:
Spatial scale: local, regional, national
Sector: water, forestry, tourism
Type of action: physical, technological, investment, regulatory, market
Actor: national or local government, private sector, NGOs
Climatic zone: dryland, floodplains, mountains, Arctic
Or a combination of these and other categories

## Criteria to Identify Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

- Magnitude of Impact
- Timing
- Persistence or Reversibility
- Likelihood of Impacts
- Capacity for Adaptation
- Distribution of Impacts: social, geographic
- Importance: ecological, social, economic

- IPCC WGII 2007

## Data to Identify Vulnerabilities

## Data to Identify Vulnerabilities

- Breashers et al 2007

## Data to Identify Vulnerabilities

**Persistence and reversibility of impacts**

- When does ‘drought’ become ‘climate’?

## Criteria to Identify Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

- Magnitude of Impact
- Timing
- Persistence or Reversibility
- Likelihood of Impacts
- Capacity for Adaptation
- Distribution of Impacts: social, geographic
- Importance: ecological, social, economic

- IPCC WGII 2007

## Adaptation

- Reactive
- Anticipatory

## ADAPTATION: REACTIVE

**ADAPTATION: REACTIVE**

## Capacity is influenced by:
Topography and micro-refugia
Soil traits
Existing biodiversity 
Pre-existing stresses, e.g. invasive species, air pollution, fragmentation of the landscape 
Status of ecosystem, e.g., early to late succession
And on the characteristics of the social system interacting with, or dependent on, the ecosystem 

- Topography and micro-refugia
- Soil traits
- Existing biodiversity
- Pre-existing stresses, e.g. invasive species, air pollution, fragmentation of the landscape
- Status of ecosystem, e.g., early to late succession
- And on the characteristics of the social system interacting with, or dependent on, the ecosystem

**Capacity for Adaptation: Ecosystems**

## ADAPTATION: REACTIVE, ANTICIPATORY

**ADAPTATION: REACTIVE, ANTICIPATORY**

## Adaptive Capacity in human systems is influenced by local factors: 
Available and appropriate skills 
Available financial resources 
Local support: family, stakeholder, etc. 
General factors: Socioeconomic and political
Federal laws 
Federal policies and regulations
Globalization of markets
Commodity market conditions

- Available and appropriate skills
- Available financial resources
- Local support: family, stakeholder, etc.
**General factors: Socioeconomic and political**
- Federal laws
- Federal policies and regulations
- Globalization of markets
- Commodity market conditions

**Capacity for Adaptation: Humans**

## BUILDING THE TOOLBOX

- 	**** No single solution fits all
-      	**** Range of options for short & long term
- 	**** Mix and match tools
**	****** Capitalize on experience
- 	**** Be flexible, experimental (learn-as-you-go),
- 	   innovative, risk-taking, course-correcting
- Synthesis and Assessment Report 4.4
-  ‘Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-sensitive Resources and Ecosystems’  http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc

**Management **

## ‘Win-Win’ Strategy – Address  Current Stressors

**Altered Disturbances**
**Drought, fire, insects**
**Habitat Fragmentation and Loss**
**Invasive Plants, Animals, and Pathogens**
**Air and Water Pollution**
**Legacy of Past Management**

**Notes:**
Most Widespread and Influential Current Stressors on National Parks and National Forests
Altered Disturbances	Fire, Insects, Floods, Flow regulation, Small-scale wind events	
Habitat Fragmentation and Loss	Fragmentation within the parks and forests, Fragmentation of the landscapes surrounding the parks and the forests	
Invasive Species	Invasive plants, animals, and pathogens, Native plants that become invasive	
Pollution	Air, Water 	
Legacy of Past Management	Logging, Grazing, Predator control, Fire Suppression, for NPS Hardened coastlines 	
Current Management	FOR NPS: Grazing, For NFS: Mining, Logging, Grazing

## Current Stressors

- Current Management to address these stressors
- Experience to draw upon

## Information for Adaptation 

- Information on the effects of climate on western rangelands: scientific process
- Operators, Resource Managers, Decision-makers – also have a process of taking data and developing information
- Information used in decision making for natural resource management

## Reflection of Experiences as Resource Managers

- Have you ever experienced a weather-related event where you had to change your management actions and maybe goals?
- What type of information was needed?
- What would you do differently?

## drought

- Setting – National Forest, City watershed on the National Forest,
- Focus – Weather suggesting drought
- In place – Agreement on how forest and water management would be affected by the drought

- Realization – ‘Drought’ was not defined

## Reflection of Past Experiences

- One Point in Time
- Unusual Event
- Perhaps no long-term change
- in resource management actions
**Valuable Experience**

## Use of Climate or Weather Data to make a Change in your Operation, Natural Resource Management

- What climate data did you use – precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Index?
- What management actions were adjusted?
- Did you need additional information?
- Would you do something different now?

## Slide 24

## Temporal constraints associated with using environmental data or information to make decision in management

- In making decisions about grazing management or wildlife management, how far ahead of a change in operation or management do you need the data?
- How does the uncertainty or variability of that information influence your risk management?

## Slide 26

## Have you incorporated information on anticipated changes in rangeland ecosystems associated with future climate change?

- What types of information on anticipated changes?
- What was your source?
- What is your confidence?

## Slide 28

## Describe a time when there were differences of opinion between public land managers and private ranchers concerning the removal of livestock from public lands during a drought?

- What types of information would have been helpful for reaching a solution that would have been acceptable to all?
- How will a more uncertain and variable climate challenge the management of public lands?

## Slide 30

## What science needs to be brought to the table?

- What are the key issues from a management perspective – information needs?
- What are the key issues from a research perspective – new research challenges?
- Where do we (research, management) go next?

## Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE)

- Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE)
- Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA (summer, 2008)