# Presentation: 467448

## 		Global Energy and Technology in the Long Term

***Energy for a Future Without Carbon Emissions***
**AAAS Annual Meeting**
**Jae Edmonds & John Clarke**
- 19 February 2005
- Joint Global Change Research Institute
- Washington, DC

## Thanks to

**Organizers of the Session**
**US DOE Office of Science**
**EPRI**
- Other sponsors of the GTSP

## Some Observations

- Climate change is a long-term issue with a characteristic time scale of 100 years or more, but with implications for present decision making.
- Climate is all about technology and managing the development and deployment of succeeding generations of a suite of technologies over the century ahead.
- Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations means that the largest changes to the global energy system are in the second half of the 21st century.
- Stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases require a credible commitment to limit cumulative emissions of carbon over the century.
- Changes in the global energy system that could lay ahead are potentially massive.
- The value of improving the suite of available energy technologies is large.

## The UNFCCC

*...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.  (p.5)*

- Article 2
- The ultimate objective...

## Stabilizing CO2 Concentrations

- Stabilization of greenhouse gas **concentrations** is the goal of the Framework Convention on Climate Change
- Stabilizing the concentration of CO2 is a very long term problem

- Stabilization means that GLOBAL emissions must peak in the decades ahead and then decline indefinitely thereafter.

## Stabilizing the Atmosphere

**Free venting of carbon must eventually be phased out,**
**But, not necessarily fossil fuels.**

## Stabilizing CO2Base Case and “Gap” Technologies

_**Assumed**_** Advances In**
- Fossil Fuels
- Energy intensity
- Nuclear
- Renewables

- The “Gap”

**Gap technologies**
- E.g. CCS

**Stabilizing CO****2****Base Case and “Gap” Technologies**

## Timing of Emissions Mitigation Under WRE

**Timing of Emissions Mitigation Under WRE**

- Emissions Reductions from Reference to Reach WRE Path

## There Are No “Silver Bullets” When It Comes to Stabilization

- Energy Intensity Improvements
- Industry
- Buildings
- Transportation
- Wind and Solar
- Biotechnology
- Soils
- Biomass crops
- Advanced biotechnology
- Nuclear
- Fission
- Fusion

- Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage
- Geologic
- Terrestrial (soils, trees)
- Advanced Transformation Systems
- Electricity
- Hydrogen
- Bio-derivative fuels
- Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases

## 	Technologies that are presently not part of the reference case could expand their roles dramatically and relative roles may change with time.

**Notes:**
Stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere requires fundamental change in the energy system.
        Energy is central to the climate change issue. Carbon dioxide emissions from the production and consumption of fossil fuels are the largest contributor to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Fossil fuel resources are abundant, and, if used in conjunction with present energy technology, have the potential to increase the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere substantially. [TW1] 
        If present trends continue, carbon dioxide emissions from energy will continue to grow. The influences of future population growth and economic development on the demand for energy services are likely to exceed currently projected improvements in energy intensity and the ongoing transition to less carbon-intensive fuels. However, trends are not destiny—a global technology strategy could help change the present course.  
         In order to stabilize concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, global carbon emissions must peak during the 21st century and then decline indefinitely. This can occur only if lower carbon-emitting technologies are deployed worldwide.
Page: 6 [TW1]I changed this one back closer to the original. The point that they are abundant is important on its own, not just as a determinant of price. The discussion in the body of the report suggests that coal is abundant enough to continue to be used for centuries.

## Technology Contributions Change With Place and Time

## A reference case with continued technology development, and no climate policy.

- A reference case with advanced technology development of carbon capture and H2, but no climate policy.

- Emissions path that stabilizes CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm.

- 	Technology Alone Won’t NECESSARILY Stabilize CO2 Concentrations

- Energy Related Carbon Emissions

## Technology Helps Control Cost

- Why control costs?
- Wasted resources mean other worthy products go un-produced.
- Or, we settle for lower environmental quality.
- Carbon Tax
- Uniformly & Efficiently Applied Over Time and Space

- A reference case with continued technology development, and a limit on CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm.

- A reference case with advanced technology development of carbon capture and H2, and a limit on CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm.

## CO2 Capture and StorageB2 with Stabilization

| Geologic Storage Capacity Estimates, All Grades (PgC) |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Coal Basins | Depleted Oil Plays | Gas Basins | Deep Saline Formation On-shore | Deep Saline FormationOff-shore | 
TOTAL |
|  48  |  31  |  190  |  1,608  |  1,374  |  3,252 |

- Source:  Dooley, et al. 2004

## Biomass and Land-Use Change Emission

**Biomass and Land-Use Change Emission**

- B2 Reference

- B2 Reference with Climate Stabilization

- Energy

- Land-use Emissions

## The Value of Improving the Present Suite of Energy Technologies is Large—e.g. CCS

- Preliminary estimate
- 2005 Present Value of Cost Reduction 2005 to 2095
- Discounted @ 5%/year

## Some Observations

- Climate change is a long-term issue with a characteristic time scale of 100 years or more, but with implications for present decision making.
- Climate is all about technology and managing the development and deployment of succeeding generations of a suite of technologies over the century ahead.
- Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations means that the largest changes to the global energy system are in the second half of the 21st century.
- Stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases require a credible commitment to limit cumulative emissions of carbon over the century.
- Changes in the global energy system that could lay ahead are potentially massive.
- The value of improving the suite of available energy technologies is large.

## END