# Presentation: 774826

## Is All of this Just WISTful Thinking?

***Presented by***
**Richard A. Wagoner**
***National Center for Atmospheric Research***
**OFCM 2****nd**** WIST Symposium**
**December 4 – 6, 2000**
**Rockville, MD**

## How Will the WIST Initiative Manifest Itself in the Long Run?

**Lots of effort now to bring advanced weather technology to bear on surface transportation**
**Where’s it all headed?**
**What’s the final balance of federal, state and private sector roles?**
**What are paradigm shifts we should watch for?**

## Fatalities Associated with U.S. AviationWind Shear Accidents

_**Fatalities Associated with U.S. Aviation**__**Wind Shear Accidents**_

**Wind Shear R&D**

**Pilot Training**

**TDWR**

- *

- * Final accident report on AA accident at Little Rock, AR not completed. May be wind shear with 10 fatalities.No TDWR system at Little Rock.

**Source: NTSB, National****Research Council**

**Pago Pago**

**JFK, NY**

**New Orleans**

**Dallas**

**Charlotte**

## Advanced Weather Technology is Having a Major Effect on Aviation Operations

**But...**
**It has taken a long time --- 20 years**
**It takes a lot of $$$****(tens of millions)**
**It takes a lot of major changes****in the surface transportation****infrastructure**
- Communications
- New sensors
- Computer base
- New operational decisionparadigms
**And...**
**	****We’re just getting started**

**Safety**

**Efficiency**

**Capacity**

## Partners for WIST Implementation

**Federal****Agencies**

**Private Sector Companies**

**State****DOTS**

**National****Laboratories & Universities**

**(Depts of Meteorology & Transportation Institutes)**

## History of Partnerships in Provision of WIST

- 15-Yr Period	 Federal	State	 Private
**1955 – 1970**
**1971 – 1985**
**1986 – 2000**
**2001 - 2015**

**?**

**?**

**?**

## Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade

**Highly *****automated***** forecast process**

**NEW INTEGRATED****FORECAST TECHNIQUES**

- Utilizes multiple model data
- Utilizes real-time data
- Fully automated
- 0-10 day forecasts
- More accurate than NWS official forecast 93% of the time

**Friday**

**Saturday**

**Sunday**

**Monday**

## Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade

**Highly *****automated***** forecast process**

**More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources**

## Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade

**Highly *****automated***** forecast process**
**More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources**

**Stronger emphasis on WIST-related R&D at the federal level**

## Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade

**Highly *****automated***** forecast process**
**More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources**
**Stronger emphasis on WIST-related R&D at the federal level**

- National/regional analyses & forecasts
- National sensor systems
- -- satellite-- radar-- ASOS
- Basic Forecasts down to zone level
- No road weather specific forecast
- Climatological data archive
- LDADS interface for local data

**Shift toward provision****of *****core***** weather/climate information at the****federal level**

## Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade

_**Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade**_

**Highly *****automated***** forecast process**
**More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources**
**Stronger emphasis on WIST-related R&D at the federal level**
**Shift toward provision****of *****core***** weather/climate information at the****federal level**

- ATWIS

- Pacific Northwest Consortium / rWeather

- Utah mesonet

**Strong shift toward regional consortia to deliver WIST information locally**

## If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users?

**Federal agencies focus on core capabilities:**
- Management of core R&D that flows down the food chain for delivery by consortia
- Core service delivery that provides basic weather, climate, and road-related data
- National infrastructure (sensors, communications, etc.)
- Coordinating and establishing national standards
- Coordinating WIST user requirements
- ... what they do best

## If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users?

**Private sector taps into vibrant market for tailored decision support systems**
- Provides value-added layer to core technologies
- Provides service in most cases rather than systems
- Competitive, but niche marketing will prevail
- Learning curve associated with consortia concept (public - private partnerships)
- ... what they do best

## If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users?

**State DOTS govern the direction and focus**** of the consortia**
- Cluster of states in most cases (economies of scale)
- Focus for detailed definition of user requirements
- Interstate obstacles need to be addressed
- ... what they do best

## If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users?

**R&D organizations develop the core technologies needed for successful WIST implementation**
- National laboratories lead effort
- Focus on R&D that is too expensive for private sector or state support
- Free and open access to results of R&D
- Works with state consortia directly at times
- Maximum coupling with universities
- Emphasize participation by Transportation Institutes
- Universities provide regional focus for mesoscale modeling and addressing local phenomena
- ... what they do best

## If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users?

**End users are the real beneficiaries**
- Tens of thousands of forecasts possible in a region vice several hundred as a result of automation and new technologies
- New decision support system focus will provide most tailored information possible
- Competitive market will keep service costs modest

## Richard A. Wagoner

- NCAR / Research Applications Program
- 303-497-8404
- wagoner@ucar.edu