# Presentation: 675056

## International Energy Outlook 2008

**Administrator**
**Energy Information Administration**

**Washington, DC**
**June 25, 2008**

***International Energy Outlook 2008***
**with Projections to 2030**

## International Energy Outlook 2008 - Summary

- Worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 50% between 2005 and 2030.  The developing non-OECD  countries grow by 84%.
- World oil prices remain relatively high through 2030. Prices ease somewhat in the mid-term as anticipated new liquids production (in Azerbaijan, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and the U.S.) reaches the marketplace, but ultimately supply remains tight.
- Sustained high oil prices mean that renewables are the world’s fastest-growing energy source (2.1% per year), followed closely by coal (2.0% per year).
- Although petroleum and other liquids retain the largest share of  total world energy use through 2030, their share falls from 37% in 2005 to 33% in 2030.
- Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 28.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 34.3 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.3 billion metric tons in 2030.

## World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and Non-OECD

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

**History**

**Projections**

**241**

**221**

**286**

**409**

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Average Annual GDP and Population Growthfor Selected Regions, 2005-2030

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## World Oil Prices in the Reference Case, 

**World Oil Prices in the Reference Case, **
**IEO2008 vs. IEO2007 **

**History**

**Projections**

- Source: EIA, IEO2007 and IEO2008

**$113**

**$95**

## World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**33%**

**29%**

**8%**

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**24%**

**6%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

**History**

**Projections**

**37%**

**23%**

**27%**

**8%**

**6%**

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

## World Liquids Consumption by Region

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

**Non-OECD**

**Percent**
**Change**
**2005-2030**

**11%**

**102%**

**3%**

**7%**

**42%**

**62%**

**43%**

**47%**

## Motor Vehicle Ownership by Selected Region

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## World Liquids Production, 1990-2030

- Non-OPEC (Conventional)

- OPEC (Conventional)

- Unconventional

- Total

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

**55**

**10**

**48**

**113**

## Non-OPEC Producing Regions With More than a One Million Barrel Per Day Increase in Total Production Over the Forecast Period, 2005 and 2030

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## OPEC Conventional Liquids Production

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Worldwide Unconventional Production, 2005 and 2030

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Nominal World Oil Prices in Three Price Cases

**Nominal World Oil Prices in Three Price Cases**

**History**

**Projections**

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

**$113**

**$69**

**$186**

## World Liquids Consumption in Three Price Cases, 2030

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

**IEO2008**

## World Liquids Consumption in Three Price Cases, 2030

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

## World Liquids Supply in Three Price Cases, 2030

**IEO2008**

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

**OPEC**
**Conventional**

**Non-OPEC**
**Conventional**

**Unconventional**

## World Natural Gas Consumption, 2005-2030

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## World Natural Gas Production

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## World Coal Consumption, 1990-2030

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## World Electric Power Generation by Region

**World Electric Power Generation by Region**

**History**

**Projections**

**Non-OECD**

**OECD**

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

- 19.7

- 7.5

- 13.5

- 9.9

## World Electric Power Generation by Fuel

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Nuclear Capacity by Region

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## World Renewable Energy Use, 2005-2030

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fossil Fuel

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**History**

**Projections**

**41%**

**44%**

**39%**

**35%**

**20%**

**21%**

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Major Trends in the IEO2008 Outlook

- Total world energy use is 50% higher in 2030 compared to 2005.
- Sustained high world oil prices dampens demand in the out years of the projections; liquids demand is 4% lower in 2030 than in last year’s outlook.
- Renewable energy is the fastest growing worldwide in the forecast, at 2.1% per year, but coal is close behind at 2.0% per year.
- It is likely that energy use in the non-OECD will exceed energy use in the OECD this year! By 2030, non-OECD energy use is 43% higher than that in the OECD.
- China’s energy use exceeds that of the U.S. by 2017 and is 32% (37 quadrillion Btu) higher than in the U.S. by 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case.
- Given the continued importance of fossil fuels in the forecast, carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise by 1.7 percent per year between 2005 and 2030.

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2008*****, March 2008, full report, June 2008**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2008*****, June 2008**
**   ****Examples of Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**	****May 2008**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48               ****	****Federal Outer Continental Shelf,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2007***
***    ******Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate ******	******Security Act of 2007*****,  April 2008**
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**