# Presentation: 876578

## Developing & Applying  a 

**Developing & Applying  a **
**Regional Earth System Model **
***GCE & JIFRESSE Briefing & ***
***DRDF Interim Progress Report***

_***JPL***_*: Duane Waliser, Yi Chao, Qinbin Li, Annmarie Eldering*
_***UCLA***_*: Kuo-Nan Liou, Jinwon Kim, Yongkang Xue, Alex Hall, *
*Jim McWilliams, Robert Fovell*

## Motivation:Modeling

*Global Climate Models (GCMs) used for climate projections (e.g., IPCC) do not have the *_*resolution to adequately represent many physical processes*_* (e.g., topography, land-sea effects, soil & vegetation variations, cloud systems) nor the *_*capacity to represent many physically important and socially relevant processes*_* (e.g., streamflow, atmos composition, water quality). *

**IPCC AR4 model projections agree that California will warm in this century but disagree on whether it will become wetter/drier.  This implies that some physical processes are inadequately represented in GCMs.**

## Motivation:Modeling

_*Regional*_* Earth System Models afford greater resolution that can be applied to the target area/process (e.g., S. California; ground cover impact on land-atmos exchange), and this in many cases provides a more realistic simulation/projection. *
*Regional *_*Earth System*_* Models afford the capacity to include processes that would otherwise be too burdensome (e.g., air or water quality, ecosystem) or incompatible (e.g., streamflow) to include in a global model.*
*Taking the above together, Regional Earth System Models (RESMs) provide an avenue for a more realistic representation of the (local) processes relevant to climate, their interactions amongst each other, and their impacts on society.  *
*Global Climate Models (GCMs) will always strive to achieve the same complexity and realism as RESMs but will always inherently lag behind due to computational considerations –> RESMs will always play a role.*
*Higher resolution modeling frameworks (e.g., RESMs) provide a numerical laboratory to develop / improve parameterizations needed for inclusion in GCMs. *

## Motivation:Observations

*A *vast amount of present-day high-resolution satellite data goes unexploited in regards to model development and validation due to the much lower GCM grid resolution.
- Moreover, these products are not often used synergistically in a single modeling context to more thoroughly constrain and validate a given model.
- An RESM, with its high-resolution and comprehensive nature, is better poised to more fully exploit mission investments and the associated data.
- In addition, RESMs can facilitate mission development and instrument design by better quantifying spatial/temporal dependencies of variance characteristics of both the signal and noise of processes relevant to the target retrievals. * *

## Motivation:Programmatic

*The development and application of an RESM can contribute to a number of key objectives of the UCLA-JPL Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering (JIFRESSE). *
**1. Increase scientific understanding about factors that affect climate and environmental changes;**
**2. Study climate impacts on regional environments, weather patterns, and ecosystems, particularly in California;**
**3. Support the design of future JPL/NASA space missions;**
- 4. Explore new technologies and applications for monitoring, detecting, and projecting climate and environmental changes; and
- 5. Enhance the educational mission of UCLA through its collaboration with JPL.
*The State of California has demonstrated significant interest in the causes, consequences, adaptation and mitigation of global change (e.g., 2006 Cal. Clim. Change Center Report) and has invested, and continues to invest, in scientific research and policy exploration (e.g., 2008 PUC->CICS).  RESMs can play a vital role in quantifying our scientific understanding and uncertainties and thus contribute to the decision-making process(es).*

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

***2006: 195k; Funding Start: Aug 2006 –> 18 Months -> Jan 2008***
- _Coupling Regional and Global Processes: Towards the Next Generation of Space Missions_
*Development and Application of *_*Initial*_* Components of JIFRESSE RESM*
*Two-way Coupling of WRF Atmospheric Model to SSiB Land Surface Model (****led by Xue****)*
*One-way Coupling of WRF Atmsopheric Model to (EPA) CMAQ Air Quality Model (****led by Kim,Li****)*
*~ 45k JPL; 65k ~UCLA/Xue SSiB; ~65k UCLA/Kim CMAQ; ~20k UCLA Other  *

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

**Why SSiB? **: SSiB is a comprehensive land-surface modeling scheme that simulates the complex and heterogeneous interactions between land surface processes, hydrology and the biosphere.  Enhanced versions of SSiB include advanced treatments of snow processes and CO2 fluxes providing for better representation of the hydrological cycle and ecosystem and composition processes.
**Status**: Two-Way WRF-SSiB coupling has been completed and demonstrated to affect an improved representation of the atmosphere/land system.

*DRDF Contributions to RESM*

***Two-way Coupling of WRF Atmospheric & SSiB Land Surface Models***

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

**Nested Model Domain used for**
**WRF-SSiB Coupling & Demonstration**

**WRF-SSiB Coupling Configuration**

*DRDF Contributions to RESM*

***Two-way Coupling of WRF Atmospheric & SSiB Land Surface Models***

**Ecosystem**
**Model in **
**The Future**

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

*DRDF Contributions to RESM*

**June 98**

**Zonal Wind: Obs**

**Zonal Wind: Standard WRF**

**Zonal Wind: SSiB**

**Snow Cover: Obs: June 2001, 2003**

**SSiB, June 1998**

**Standard WRF, June 1998**

**Precipitation: Obs : June 1998**

**Precipitation: SSiB: June 1998      **

**Precipitation: Standard WFF: June 1998      **

**WRF-SSiB Exhibits Better Agreement with Obs than Standard WRF**

***Two-way Coupling of WRF Atmospheric & SSiB Land Surface Models***

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

**Why CMAQ? **: The Community Multi-Scale Air Quality model is a comprehensive, _state-of-the-art _air quality model developed and used by the EPA that treats emissions, photochemistry, and chemical transport.
- Status: One-Way WRF-CMAQ coupling has been completed and applied in a demonstrative summertime simulation of Air Quality for Southern California.

*DRDF Contributions to RESM*

***One-way Coupling of WRF Atmospheric & CMAQ Models***

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

*DRDF Contributions to RESM*

**Diurnal cycles of the emissions of (top) Particulate Matter (> 10 ********m; PM10, e.g. dust) and (bottom) NO****X**** in LA/Southern California ****during July 2007****.**

***One-way Coupling of WRF Atmospheric & CMAQ Models***

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

***One-way Coupling of WRF Atmospheric & CMAQ Models***

**Simulated mean diurnal cycle of O****3**** and CO (ppmv) in So. California for July 2005**** All emission sources (Area + Nonroad + Biogenic + Mobile + Point)**

**(1) The O3 diurnal cycle is characterized by daytime maxima and nighttime minima. **
**(2) High O3 values occur in inland regions.**
**These results show that the O3 concentration is strongly affected by the low-level circulation which transports the O3 precusors such as NOx into the inland in general.**
**(3) CO concentration largely resembles the emission profile during a day because of the reaction rate of CO is much slower than those associated with O3.**

**O****3**

**CO**

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

*DRDF Contributions to RESM*

***One-way Coupling of WRF Atmospheric & CMAQ Models***

**Daily maximum 8-hour mean O3 concentration**

**The monthly-mean diurnal cycle of O3 concentration**

**Pasadena**

**Riverside**

**West Los Angeles**

**Palm Springs**

**Pasadena**

**Riverside**

**West Los Angeles**

**Palm Springs**

**Evaluation of the ozone concentration at 4 CARB stations during July 2005**

**The monthly-mean diurnal cycle of the simulated O3 concentration (red line) agrees well with the observed values (bars) at the four CARB stations. This shows that RESM has reasonable skill in simulating daily peak O3 concentration. The most noticeable bias is overestimations of nocturnal O3 concentrations, especially in Pasadena and Riverside. These biases in nocturnal O3 concentration may be due to the errors in the WRF-simulated met data (wind, PBL depth) and/or too weak O3 titration in CMAQ.**

**The simulated daily timseries of the daytime 8-hour (1100-1800 PST) mean O3 concentration agrees well with observations at the four CARB stations. Noticeable discrepancies between the simulated and observed values occur only at the Riverside station, especially in the latter half of the month. These results also show that *****the RESM possesses useful skill in simulating O3 concentration in Southern California for extended periods*****, an important capability for assessing the impact of climate change on the regional air quality.**

## Publications/Presentations

**J. Kim, D. Waliser, Q. Li, K. N. Liou, C. Cai, Y. Chao, A. Eldering, R. Fovell, A. Hall, X. Qu, and Y. Xue, 2207. The JIFRESSE Regional Earth System Model and its application to air quality in California : Evaluation of the Control Simulation, AGU Fall Meeting, GC21A-0137, December 11, 2007, San Francisco, California.**
**Y. Xue, R. Vasic, J. Dudhia, F. De Sales, D. Waliser, K.-N. Liou, 2007: Land/atmosphere Coupling Methodology and Regional Climate Downscaling --- A Study Using the JIFRESSE WRF/SSiB Model, AGU Fall Annual meeting, San Francisco, December 10-14, 2007, San Francisco, California.**
**D. Waliser, Y. Chao, **_**A. Eldering**_**, R. Fovell, R. Friedl, **_**A. Hall**_**, J. Kim, Q. Li, K.N. Liou, J. McWilliams, Y. Xue.  2007.  Modeling and Observing the Earth System on Regional Scales: A Joint UCLA-JPL Research Effort Focused on Climate Variability and Change In California, Fourth Annual Climate Change Research Conference, September 10 - 13, 2007, Sacramento Convention Center, Sacramento, CA.**

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

***2007: 180k; Funding Start: Aug 2007 –> 12 Months -> July 2008***
- _Evaluating Key Uncertainties in IPCC Climate Change Projections of California Snowpack: Topography, Snow Physics, and Aerosol Deposition_
*Focus on Snowpack Processes Relevant to California Climate Change*
*Incorporation of Multi-layer snow version of SSiB into RESM (****led by Xue****)*
*Model integration and demonstration for 2008 CCCC report (****led by Kim****)*
*~ 40k JPL; 60k ~UCLA/Xue SSiB; ~60k UCLA/Kim Modeling; ~20k UCLA Other  *

**While IPCC AR4 projections agree that California snowpack will decrease, there is considerable uncertainty and known model shortcomings. **

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

***Incorporation of Multi-layer snow version of SSiB into RESM***

- Model simulated snow water equivalent (cm) for the western US for April 2002. Model simulations were based on NCEP's "Eta" regional weather-forecast model. The left (right) panel uses the single- (multi-) layer snow version of SSiB. Red circles denote regions with largest differences.
**Multi-Layer model leads to reductions in  spring snowpack.  This, in combination with the greater physical realism of the multi-layer model, warrants its inclusion in the RESM given the import of the snowpack issue.   **

- MODIS true color image (Left) and retrieved snow cover maps (Right) of California, 31 October 2004. In the right image, the color legend is as follows: white=snow, pink= cloud, green=snow/cloud-free land, blue=water.

**Quantitative snow observations (e.g., depth, mass) from satellite are still unavailable/experimental. Model-data synergies are needed to facilitate improvements in both. **

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

***Incorporation of Multi-layer snow version of SSiB into RESM***

**1) Progress:**
**Change the WRF vertical coordinate to avoid some vegetation penetrating to the second atmospheric layer;**
**Implement SSiB vegetation map into the WRF model.   The SSiB map is based on USGS but with more up-to date information. The standard WRF is hard wired to an older USGS map.   **
**Other improvements to the WRF/SSiB code in a number of places.**
**Presently debugging SSiB 3 (multi-layer snow) incorporation into WRF.**
**Invited the WRF PBL developer, Dr. Yonghong Song to UCLA to discuss the WRF coupling.**
**2)  Next step:**
**Add sea ice updating.  Current WRF code retains day-one sea-ice.**
**Further debugging multi-layer snow model. **
**We expect to finish the preliminary coupling by June 30.**

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

**Core contributors in the past have included Scripps/UCSD, UCSC, UCB/LLNL.**
**Core/Leads have accepted our overture to provide input. **
**Draft papers are due 5/2008 and final papers 10/2008 **
**Common sets of forcing data on climate and sea level rise, and demographics and urban projections (e.g., SRESA1B scenario). **
**Cover 7 sectors, including water resources, forest, agriculture, coast, energy, air quality, and public health**
**2008 has more emphasis on translating climate change into economic impacts and adaptation **

*DRDF Contributions to RESM*

***Model integration and demonstration for 2008 CCCC report ***

**JIFRESSE Contribution**

**Use RESM to down-scale NCAR/CCSM climate projection over California to better model/assess impacts of climate change on Sierra snowpack.**

**Tasks/Methodology**

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

**Present-day (330 ppmv CO2)**

**Mid-21st century (430 ppmv CO2)**

**PRCP**
**(mm/6m)**

**SNOW**
**(mm/6m)**

*DRDF Contributions to RESM*

***Model integration and demonstration for 2008 CCCC report ***

**Ongoing Calculations: 1961-63 vs 2035-37 Wintertime**

## DRDF Contributions to RESM

***Model integration and demonstration for 2008 CCCC report ***

**Remaining Tasks/Plans:**
- Complete basic climate change experiment (e.g. 20 years in 20th and 21st century) which will evaluate the impact of the high resolution RESM on the snowpack projection, frequency and severity of Santa Ana conditiions and possibly ocean upwelling favorable events.  This will serve as the core contribution to the 2008 CCCC report.
- If time permits, perform sensitivity studies altering the snow albedo to account for aerosol deposition to determine its impact on the above results.
- If computer time / code porting issues can be resolved (see next) and time permits, perform sensitivity studies using multi-layer snow model version of SSiB.
- Write/Submit report to CCCC.**    **

## Synergistic Awards/Activities

- DRDF 2008;  PI: Eldering. _California Climate Projections for the 21__st__ Century: Air Quality Predictions from the JPL-UCLA Regional Earth System Model _
- A number of other SURP Awards (SEE FOLLOWING SLIDES).
- SURP and External Funding for developing coupling of the RESM to the ocean (i.e. WRF-ROMS).  Chief investigators are: Y. Chao (JPL) and J. McWilliams and A. Hall (UCLA). (SEE FOLLOWING SLIDES).

- There are a number of synergistic activities associated with other awards and/or components of the RESM.

## DRDF Awards/Synergy

*DRDF Awards/Synergy*

## SURP Awards/Synergy

## Ocean Component of RESM: WRF-ROMS

- SURP project: Developing coupling of the RESM to the ocean (i.e. WRF-ROMS).  PIs: Y. Chao (JPL), J. McWilliams and A. Hall (UCLA).

**WRF-ROMS**

## ROMS Nested-Grid Modeling

- 12-km

- 1-km

- 3-km

- Linking Circulation with Ecosystem & Fishery

- Multi-scale (or “nested”) ROMS modeling approach is developed in order to simulate basin -> satellite observation scale (i.e. 1km)
- ONR, NASA,NOAA
- McWilliams & Chao

- 1-km

- 4-km

- 12-km

- Carbon, Silicate, Nitrate Ecosystem Model
- (CoSINE)

- Coupling physics with biology

## Operational & Synergistic Activity 

- Operational & Synergistic Activity
- Based on Ocean Component of RESM

- CA
- State
- Funded
- McWilliams
- & Chao

## Disposition of Models/Computation Challenges

- WRF-SSIB development and application has been on NCAR computers (IBM & Linux clusters)  - migration of this away from NCAR has been difficult and  time consuming - yet computer time for us at NCAR is harder to obtain – particularly for climate change experiment.
- WRF-NOAH (i.e. standard configuration) runs on JPL cosmos (Waliser), NCAR (Hall, Xue, Liou), _x0010_NASA Columbia NAS (Waliser), and NCSA Illinois (Hall).
- RESM has problems running long-term warm season simulations so we are doing winter times only - no time to determine reason.
- WRF-CMAQ one-way coupling (i.e. CMAQ) runs on JPL cosmos; since it is single-processor limited, it may be migrated to single processor machine at UCLA.
- WRF-ROMS - Local UCLA Linux Workstation with plans to use NCSA Illinois Computers for their climate change experiments.
- Recent acquisition of JPL mass storage (i.e. **nearline3**) has been critical to the climate change experiment.
- Enhancements to UCLA local storage is needed for pre/post processing.
**One chief bottleneck is data transfer **of NCAR CCSM GCM boundary condition forcing files from Earth System Grid (i.e. NCAR Mass Storage Site)  to JPL/UCLA, the transfer back of the post-processed forcing data to target computers (e.g., NCSA, cosmos, NCAR), and then transferring the RESM output back to JPL mass storage (i.e. nearline3).

## Unanticipated Challenges & Path Forward

- The JPL personnel that played a key role initially (2005-6) in helping to establish JIFRESSE, that developed the strategy for the RESM, and that planned more tangible involvement in the RESM development and application have become significantly more committed in one way or another over time (i.e. Chao, Eldering, Li and Waliser).
- The time commitment to the strategic and administrative aspects of the continued development of JIFRESSE for the DRDF PIs/Co-Is is non-trivial and is a draw away from the more tangible tasks.
- For a long-term, robust effort, there is inadequate RESM expertise (including regional climate and AQ) and/or time available from those with that expertise.
-  HP computing challenges mentioned previously.
- Due to essential modeling priorities, application of satellite data within the problem has been limited at best.
- WRF model is in development itself.
- Due to short time lines, diferent model-component PIs, different application needs, and computing issues, the model component couplings have been carried out separately – future plans are to integrate these efforts.

## Summary: Stepping Back

**Accomplishments**
-  WRF-SSiB Two-Way Coupling Completed (Atmos-Land)
- WRF-CMAQ One-Way Coupling Completed (Atmos-AirQuality)
- WRF-ROMS Two-Way Coupling Completed (Atmos-Ocean – w/ external support)
- RESM Simulation of Air Quality for S. Cal.
- Demonstrated Improvement in RESM via Coupling with SSiB.
- 3 Poster Presentations for AQ and Land Component work – more related to Ocean Component.
- Invitation to Particpate in 2008 CCCC Report.
- Climate Change Downscaling Experiments for Snowpack in Progress.
- Incoporation of Multi-Layer Snow Model in Progress.
- High-resoution 3D regional hindcast of coupled ocean-atmos-land system in progress.
- Etc.

## Summary: Stepping Back

- With the above accomplishments in mind, consider that:
-  The planning for these efforts (except ocean) started a little over 2 years ago.
-  Funding for these efforts (except ocean) started less than 1.5 years ago.
-  We are only through 1.5 DRDF & SURP yearly cycles.
-  There are funding, computational and expertise limitations on this activity.
-  The administrative home of this activity – JIFRESSE, a trailblazing & unique activity/framework to JPL, has had to be developed in parallel to the research activities.
-  As little as 1.5 years ago, JIFRESSE had no infrastructure, no space, and no administrative personnel.

**Thanks to the UCLA Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research, the Division of Physical Sciences, the College of Letters and Science, and the Henry Samueli School of Engineering and Applied Science. **
**Thanks to the JPL Office of the Director, the Chief Scientist and Chief Technologist, the Earth Science and Technology Directorate, and the Science Division.**