# Presentation: 420620

## Energy and Political Stability

**Gary J. Jones**

- Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company,for the United States Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

## Premise

**2.  Middle class creation requires broad, proactive, ****     culturally acceptable programs**

**1.  Systemic poverty and the lack of a “middle class”****     contributes to political instability and is a breeding****     ground for terrorism**

**3.  Energy is a key enabling technology**

## The Origins of this Work

- _Sandia Strategies of the War on Terrorism_
- Teams looking at Offense, Defense, and Root Cause post 9/11

- _Root Cause Team:_

| Robert Floran | Vipin Gupta |
| --- | --- |
| Basil Hassan | Gary Jones |
| Jason Libersky | Gwendolyn Pirtle |
| Maher Tadros | Jessica Turnley |

## Two of the Root Causes

- Poverty is not just income-related; it also means lower life expectancy, illiteracy, poor education opportunities, lack of potable water access, childhood malnutrition—and hopelessness.

-     Systemic Long-term Poverty
-   Sustained by “Native” Colonialism following independence
-   Resulting in hopelessness, anger, and envy
-     Small Middle Class
-   Retarding democratic processes, full participation

## Natural Resources Are Not the Answer

## Economic Development & Stability

*Economic growth produces a middle class with property rights, a complex civil society and ever higher levels of education to maintain economic competitiveness. All these factors together create fertile ground in which demands for democratic political participation take shape, which eventually get institutionalized in democratic government.*
- —Francis Fukuyama

**75% of the World’s Richest 25 Countries are Democracies**
**5% of the World’s Poorest 80 Countries are Democracies**

## Requirements for Economic Development

**Requirements for Economic Development**

**Infrastructure:**
- Basic health care, education/literacy, communication

**Economic:**
- Capital, credit, free market, property protection

**Legal:**
- “Rule of Law”, equity/equality

**Cultural:**
- Celebrate success, value knowledge

**Personal Freedom:**
- Empowerment, fair reward

## The Basic Requirement

**Infrastructure:**
- Basic health care, education/literacy, communication

**Energy is the Enabler:**
**Making development needs accessible**

## Energy for Economicand Social Development

**Point of Use Technologies for rural development**
- Local, clean energy supply
- Efficient, low-cost telecommunications technologies
- Potable water delivery and waste-water treatment
- Enhanced distance learning technologies
- Village-applicable telemedicine technologies
- Local “productive use” equipment

*Goal: Enhanced education, health care,*
*and economic development on the village level*.

## Technologies for Economic Development

- Create technology hubs focusing on key regional issues:
- Clean Energy supply
- Water technologies
- Advanced agriculture
- Infrastructure and border security
- Biotechnical and medical applications
- Point of Use technologies
- Communications

*Goal: Development of a technology-based**manufacturing sector leading to a viable middle-class*

## Breaking the Poverty Cycle

**It is not just a question of more foreign aid**
**Effective programs:**
**Are multi-national/NGO-based programs**
**Enable people to move forward on their own**
**Empower them to find solutions as equals.**

**GOAL***Provide the means for rural and urban communities in the developing world to meet the basic needs of the current generation within their own socio-political framework and resource base, in a manner that enhances their quality-of-life, respects cultural traditions, and is internally sustainable through community wealth creation.*

##  Six Steps to Effective Programs

- In-country team identification and stakeholder involvement

- Local and distance education capabilities and content

- Energy infrastructure/clean energy systems

- Micro-enterprise development utilizing these systems

- Business of supplying/maintaining clean energy systems

- Training for supplemental community health care personnel

## Are the Requirements Met?

**Are the Requirements Met?**

**Infrastructure:**
- Basic health care, education/literacy, communication

**Economic:**
- Capital, credit, free market, property protection

**Legal:**
- “Rule of Law”, equity/equality

**Cultural:**
- Celebrate success, value knowledge

**Personal Freedom:**
- Empowerment, fair reward

## What can go wrong!

- Cf. Terrorism and Development, K. Cragin and P. Chalk, RAND, 2003

-   Community involvement in needs identification, and follow   through, are critical, independent of amount of money spent.

-   To address unrest, development must provide economic    alternatives to potential terrorist recruits, and create a middle    class with a vested interest in peace.

-   Funding programs must not be done in isolation.  The other   requirements for development must be addressed, and risks    assessed.

-   If development efforts are not funded relative to size and needs   of targeted regions they may backfire.

## END

## Five of the Root Causes of Terrorism

**U.S. oil-dominated foreign policy**
**  ****U. S. Troops in Saudi Arabia**
**  ****Foreign Policy in the Middle East (Kuwait)**

**Opportunistic Foreign Policy ****(Cold War Legacy)**
**  ****Situational support for oppressive, unstable regimes**
**  ****Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc**

**Colonial Legacy**
**  ****Absence of industrial infrastructure**
**  ****Small middle class**
**  ****Arbitrary borders leading to tribal conflict**

**Perceived US Israeli-Palestinian Policy Imbalance**
**  ****Lack of economic empowerment of Palestinians**
**  ****Resultant infrastructure, resource problems**

**Mutual Lack of Cultural Acceptance & Understanding**
**  ****Little true dialogue**
**  ****Cultural versus Economic World View (Jihad vs. McWorld*)**

## ...the huge oil windfall has been a monumental misfortune.  It has intoxicated rulers, henchmen, and purveyors, who have slept on piles of money, wasted it on largely worthless projects, and managed to exceed their figuratively (but not literally) limitless resources.  Even Saudi Arabia cannot balance its books.  In the process these spoilers have infuriated the Muslim poor, who in turn have sought an outlet for rage and outrage in fundamentalist doctrine.—David Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations