# Presentation: 175342

## Slide 1

## How Are These Systems Unique?

** ****A custom-made system is developed for each urban area, based on specific meteorology for each locale, as well as urban structure and demographics**
** ****These systems are based on actual weather-health relationships, as determined by daily variations in human mortality**
** ****These systems are based on much more than just temperature and humidity**

## World Meteorological OrganizationShowcase ProjectsCenter for Climatic Research, University of Delaware

**Participating Cities**:
- - Dayton/Cincinnati, USA
- - New Orleans, USA
- - Philadelphia, USA
- - Phoenix, USA
- - Rome, Italy
- - Shanghai, China
- -** **Toronto, Canada
- - Washington, USA
- - Five additional cities,
-    Southern USA
- - Chicago/St. Louis,
-    New for 2003

## Maximum Temperature vs. Daily Mortality: 

**Maximum Temperature vs. Daily Mortality: **
**New York  and Jacksonville, Florida**

**	****New York****	****	****	****	****Jacksonville**

## Maximum Temperature Health Thresholds

- Boston 	30oC
- Atlanta 	32oC
- Dallas		40oC
- Denver	34oC
- Phoenix	44oC

## Cook County, Illinois: July ‘95

## Steps in System Development

**Step 1: **Determine air masses daily over a city using newly-developed Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC)
**Step 2: **Are any of these air masses ‘offensive’?
**Step 3: **What aspects of the offensive air mass make it most detrimental to human health?

## SSC Air Mass Types

**DP****	**Dry Polar (cP)
**DM**	Dry Moderate (Pacific)
**DT**		Dry Tropical (cT)
**MP**	Moist Polar (mP)
**MM**	Moist Moderate (Overrunning)
**MT** 	Moist Tropical (mT)
**MT+**	Moist Tropical Plus
**TR**		Transition between air masses
- ----------------
- Sheridan, S.C., 2002: The redevelopment of a weather-type classification scheme for North America. *Int’. J. Climatology.*
- Kalkstein et al., 1996, A New  Spatial Synoptic Classification:  Application to Air Mass Analysis.  *Int. J. Climatology.*

## Characteristics of PittsburghAir Mass Types

## Removing Non-Climatological Noise from the Mortality Data

## Phoenix’s Rising Mortality

## Mean Deaths in Rome by Daystandardization is important

- Mean Deaths in Rome by Daystandardization is important

## Results:  Offensive Air Mass Types

- Moist Tropical Plus (**MT**+):
- Very warm, humid
- High overnight temperatures
- Dry Tropical (**DT**):
- Hot, dry
- High solar load
- Dry Tropical Plus (**DT+; Phoenix only**):
- Extremely hot, dry
- High solar load

## Mean Mortality Increases

| Location (Freq) | DT (DT+) | MT+ |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Cincinnati (8%) | +4.4 (15%) | +1.8 (6%) |
| New Orleans (2%) | None | +3.7 (9%) |
| Phoenix (1%) | +2.7 (7%) | None |
| Rome (11%) | +6.2 (14%) | +5.0 (12%) |
| Shanghai (12%) | None | +42.4 (16%) |
| Toronto (7%) | +4.2 (11%) | +4.0 (10%) |

## Mean Anomalous Mortality by Weather Type, Rome

## Mean Anomalous Mortality by Weather Type, Shanghai

## Likelihood of Excess MortalityToronto

## Development of Forecast Algorithms:  

- Within-Air Mass Category
- Mortality Variations

## ROME

- MT+ mortality decreases through summer

## ROME

- DT mortality vs. morning temperature

## Slide 21

## In Toronto, When a DT or MT+ Air Mass is Forecast, Three Levels of Advisory are Possible:

## Slide 23

## Slide 24

## Slide 25

## Slide 26

## Year-to-Year Variability:  Toronto

## Slide 28

## Summary of Watches/Warnings Under NWS System and

- Air Mass System, Summer 2001
- New Orleans, Louisiana

## Toronto:  2001 Results

**Alerts**
- June 29th (DT 71%)
- July 23rd (MT+ 88%)
- July 24th (MT+ 84%)
- Aug 5th (DT 65%)

**Emergencies**
- June 15th (MT+ 96%)
- Aug 6th (DT 91%)
- Aug 7th (DT 93%)
- Aug 8th (DT 97%)
- Aug 9th (DT 99%)

- Four day run of heat emergencies Aug 6-9 would have only occurred two other times in the 46 years for which data was provided.

## Steps That can be Taken When 

- Alerts or Emergencies are Called

- 1.	NWS alerts appropriate city agency
- 	(e.g., Department of Health, Office of Aging, etc.)
- 2.	City develops (or already has in place) intervention plans
- 3.	Effectiveness of system can be monitored in three manners,
- 	and improvements are implemented if there are 			shortcomings:
- 	--forecasting effectiveness (false positives or negatives)
- 	--accuracy in estimating health impacts of offensive weather 	--noting if we are saving lives.