# Presentation: 785901

- Climate, Water and Life on Earth

***Peter H. Hildebrand, Ph.D.***

***Science and Exploration Directorate***

***NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD***

- Climate, Water and Life on Earth

- Earth’s climate:
*natural and *
*human forces *
*of change*

- Earth’s water cycle in a
- changing climate

- Ecosystem
- impacts

- Energy consumption
- and actions we can take

## Climate Variability: Global Temperature

- Industrial age begins

- Now

- What is  happening here?

- The Earth is warming... Why?
- Are greenhouse gasses the reason?
- Does this matter?

**Notes:**
I like this chart better that a simple chart, but I would want you to take time to explain the anomalies over the last 1000 year as you explain the model versus measure results of the last 150 years.

This is a chart that should take a couple of minutes because it basically summaries the last few charts.

## How do we know about greenhouse gas history?Climate records from polar ice cores

- The history of Earth climate is available from Antarctic and Greenland ice cores.
-  Temperatures from oxygen isotope ratios (O16/O18)
-  Greenhouse gases from air bubbles trapped in the ice cores.
- Other measurements validate these records.

- How do we know about greenhouse gas history?*Climate records from polar ice cores*

## Climate Change: variability over 450,000 years

- Climate Change: variability over 450,000 years

- Ice Ages
- (cold, dry, windy)

- Warm periods
- (warm, wet, calm)

- greenhouse
- gases change
*in response*
*to* climate
- change

- Last 150yrs:
- greenhouse
- gases *driving*
- temperature
- change

**Notes:**
Carbon dioxide is measured today, and the historical record is read by examining (e.g. ice samples, not sure, but I think the audience would like to know how we can build this record)

Methane same as CO2  

In the first 449,500 year the chemical concentrations and temperature cycle were pretty stable, but the magnitude of concentrations have been consistently upward for the last 500 year, but let’s just look at the last 150 years. The atmospheric concentrations are rising rapidly and 

The temperature is rising....

## Greenhouse gases are natural:
H2O, CO2, CH4, . . .

Humans add more greenhouse gases
These gases are warming the Earth

- Greenhouse gases are natural:
- H2O, CO2, CH4, . . .
- Humans add more greenhouse gases
- These gases are warming the Earth

- Greenhouse Gas and Human Activity

## How do we know about Greenhouse Gases?

- Greenhouse gas concept known since 1820s:
- Joseph Fourier (1824, 1927)
- John Tyndall (1861)
- Svante Arrhenius (1896)
- David Keeling measured CO2 on top of Mauna Loa
- CO2 is increasing each year

- winter

- summer

- High CO2 values = northern winter
- Low CO2 values = northern summer, (when trees are growing)

## The Earth’s Radiation Budget

- (adapted from Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997, by the CERES Science Team)

- ~30%

- ~70%

**~50%**

**~20%**

**The Earth’s Radiation Budget**

**Notes:**
 Incoming solar radiation:  342 Wm-2
  ~30% reflected back to space:  6% by the atmosphere, 4% by the Earth surface, 20% by clouds.
  ~16% absorbed by atmosphere
  ~3% absorbed by clouds
  ~51% absorbed by land and oceans
 Outgoing long wave radiation:  ~70% of total incoming radiation
  ~6% radiated back to space directly from Earth surface
  ~64% radiated to space from clouds-atmosphere
Going “into the atmosphere”:  thermals, evapo-transpiration, surface radiation, and absorbed solar radiation.
Coming “out of the atmosphere”:  emitted into space by clouds and atmosphere, radiated back towards ground, transmitted through the atmosphere window

Further comments – see page 38

## Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

_**Climate Change Forcing in the Industrial Era (1850-2000)**_
**►**** ****CO****2**** Is Largest Forcing**
**►**** ****Air Pollutants (O****3****, CH****4****, BC) Cause Large Forcing**
**►**** ****Aerosol Effects (direct + on clouds) Most Uncertain**
_**Conclusion**_**: CO****2**** Largest Forcing, But Others Significant**** **
_**References**_**:**
**►****Trends of measured climate forcing agents**, *Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.*, 98, 14778, 2001.
**►****Efficacy of climate forcings**, *J. Geophys. Res., *in press, 2005.

## Where has the Earth warmed?

- More in the northern hemisphere than elsewhere

## Terrestrial water cycle
Precipitation  
Storm and drought intensity
Snowfall 
Runoff
Tropical storms
Global ice
Ice sheets and glaciers / sea ice
Sea level 

- Terrestrial water cycle
- Precipitation
- Storm and drought intensity
- Snowfall
- Runoff
- Tropical storms
- Global ice
- Ice sheets and glaciers / sea ice
- Sea level

- The Water Cycle and Climate

- As the Earth has warmed,
- 	what has happened to Earth’s water resources ?

**Notes:**
As the Earth heats up, climate effects could include:
Effects of warmer Earth surface:
stronger forcing of atmospheric circulation
faster water cycle 
Rainfall increase: 
More rainfall
Heavier rainfall events 
Stronger large scale weather patterns:
More pronounced periods of heavy precipitation & drought 
More intense storms
Snowfall decrease
More precipitation falls as rain
Less runoff in late summer and fall
Melting of ice sheets and glaciers
Sea level rise
Altered ocean circulation

As the climate has warmed, what has happened to:
Precipitation
Snow pack 
Runoff
Storm intensity
Ice sheets and glaciers
Sea ice

## Changes in Precipitation

**Less Rain**

**More Rain**

**Notes:**
Annual Precipitation trends from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): WMO, UNEP
And in the regions where the precipitation is increasing it is characterized by:
More frequent and intense precipitation
Annual precipitation increases due to strong events
More days with precipitation

## Rainfall Intensity Increases

- More days with rainfall
- Heavier rainfall
- Rainfall increases due to strong events

## Snow Cover is Reduced

- As temperatures increase:
- Snow starts later in season
- Snow melts earlier
- Snow cover reduced 1-2 days/yr since early 1970’s
- More precipitation is rain
- Water storage in snow pack is reduced

**Notes:**
Snow cover measured in Millions of sq kms by season here show that as temperatures increase:

As temperatures increase:
More precipitation falls as rain
Snow onset is later
Snow melt is earlier 
Snow line elevation moves up by about 100m per deg C

## Runoff Changes in Spring and Fall

- As temperatures increase:
- More precipitation falls as rain
- Winter runoff is increased
- Spring runoff pulse is earlier
- Summer runoff is decreased

**Notes:**
Snow and cold seasons process are also critical for understanding the global water cycle.  Remote sensing of cold seasons processes are also promising, and a field experiment is currently underway in the Colorado Rocky Mountains to better define the requirements and specifications of a future cold seasons space mission.

- Does Global Warming Increase
- The Number or Intensity of Hurricanes?

## Melting Ice in the ArcticEcosystem Impacts

- Melting Ice in the Arctic*Ecosystem Impacts*

## Precipitation:  
More & Heavier events 
Storm intensity
Stronger large scale weather patterns:
More intense storms including hurricanes
Snowfall decrease
Later freeze, earlier thaw
More precipitation as rain
Earlier runoff
Melting of ice sheets and glaciers
Sea level rise

- Precipitation:
- More & Heavier events
- Storm intensity
- Stronger large scale weather patterns:
- More intense storms including hurricanes
- Snowfall decrease
- Later freeze, earlier thaw
- More precipitation as rain
- Earlier runoff
- Melting of ice sheets and glaciers
- Sea level rise

- The Water Cycle and Climate

- With a hotter Earth, what has happened to water resources?

- What are the impacts of these changes?

**Notes:**
As the Earth heats up, climate effects could include:
Effects of warmer Earth surface:
stronger forcing of atmospheric circulation
faster water cycle 
Rainfall increase: 
More rainfall
Heavier rainfall events 
Stronger large scale weather patterns:
More pronounced periods of heavy precipitation & drought 
More intense storms
Snowfall decrease
More precipitation falls as rain
Less runoff in late summer and fall
Melting of ice sheets and glaciers
Sea level rise
Altered ocean circulation

As the climate has warmed, what has happened to:
Precipitation
Snow pack 
Runoff
Storm intensity
Ice sheets and glaciers
Sea ice

## Climate Change and the Water Cycle

-  *What are the potential ecosystem impacts?*

## Ecosystem Impacts: What does this mean for a farmer?

- Ecosystem Impacts: *What does this mean for a farmer?*

- He is concerned about climate change effects:
- Getting snow melt water from the river for irrigation
- Getting water in the summer
- Urban encroachment

## Humans are Changing the Earth

- Traditional agriculture

- Apartment complex

- New larger apartment complex

- Factory out of picture 

- More and more air pollution:
-        aerosols & greenhouse gasses

## Ecosystem Impacts: Oceanic Dead Zones

-                                                      (Diaz and Rosenberg, Science, 321, 2008)

## 2. The Earth system has tipping points: 
small changes that cause big effects 

- 2. The Earth system has tipping points:
_*small change*_*s that cause *_*big effects*_* *

- Climate Change, the Water Cycle and Ecosystems*Should we be concerned?*

- 1. Changes in the Earth system
- may cause changes in how we live!

## Climate Change Tipping Point

- Ice Ages
- (cold, dry, windy)

- Warm periods
- (warm, wet, calm)

**Notes:**
Carbon dioxide is measured today, and the historical record is read by examining (e.g. ice samples, not sure, but I think the audience would like to know how we can build this record)

Methane same as CO2  

In the first 449,500 year the chemical concentrations and temperature cycle were pretty stable, but the magnitude of concentrations have been consistently upward for the last 500 year, but let’s just look at the last 150 years. The atmospheric concentrations are rising rapidly and 

The temperature is rising....

## Climate models are now pretty good. 
A major uncertainty is:
What are we humans going to do?

Intergovernmental Panel  on Climate Change (IPCC)* “Emissions Scenarios”
A2: do little about environment, continued population growth
B1: move quickly to global sustainability

- Climate models are now pretty good.
- A major uncertainty is:
- What are we humans going to do?
- Intergovernmental Panel  on Climate Change (IPCC)* “Emissions Scenarios”
- A2: do little about environment, continued population growth
- B1: move quickly to global sustainability

- Climate Forecasting

## Climate Forecasting

- more

- less

- People,
- Development & Pollution

## Climate Change Impacts:

- Areas where change will occur
- 
- (hotter – cooler,
- wetter – dryer)
- (R. Kerr, Science, 321, 2008)

## Impacts on the availability of

- Water and Food

## Global Population and Water Demand

##  Human water use: Grain Production

-  Human water use: Grain Production

##  Human water use: Grain Production and Consumption

-  Human water use: Grain Production and Consumption

## Earth’s ecosystem is changing

- This affects the availability of water and Food
- Let’s look at potential responses
- to these problems

## Changing how we live:Reduce energy use: reduce energy use emphasize sustainability reduce population growthImprove sustainability: recycling energy use technologiesstabilize land use changes

- Changing how we live:Reduce energy use: r*educe energy use **emphasize sustainability **reduce population growth*Improve sustainability: *recycling **energy use technologies**stabilize land use changes*

## Changing our Energy Source Technologies: coal (carbon sequestration)nuclear (issues: proliferation, waste, cost)renewable energy (solar, wind, tidal, etc.)

- Changing our Energy Source Technologies: coal (carbon sequestration)nuclear (issues: proliferation, waste, cost)renewable energy (solar, wind, tidal, etc.)

## COAL with Carbon Capture and Storage

- _COAL __with Carbon Capture and Storage_

-  Cost of Carbon Capture and Storage
- 25-50% overhead on energy production
-  Environmental effects – *reduced CO2 pollution at added cost*
-  CO2 capture – *multiple technologies, up to 90% capture?*
-  CO2 transport – *pipeline transport for oil well injection*
-  CO2 storage (sequestration)
-  Geological storage
-  Ocean storage
-  Mineral storage
-  Leakage
-  CO2 Reuse
-  Single Step methods: CO2 + H2 → Methanol
-  Single Step methods: CO2 → Hydrocarbons
-  2 Step methods: CO2 → CO → Hydrocarbons

-  source: Wikipedia

## Nuclear Power

- The Nuclear Fuel Cycle:
- Uranium is mined, enriched, and manufactured into nuclear fuel, and delivered to a nuclear power plant.
- After usage in the power plant, the spent fuel is delivered to a reprocessing plant, or
- to a final repository for geological disposition, or
- to reprocessing, where 95% of spent fuel can be recycled to be returned to usage in a power plant.
- Nuclear Power Concerns:
- Nuclear proliferation
- Nuclear waste
- Economics?

- Source: Wikipedia

## Renewable Resource Energy

- Source: Wikipedia

## Energy Use 

- Energy Use

## US Energy Use by Sector

## Source: Lawrence Livermore National Lab; https://eed.llnl.gov/flow/02flow.php

## Energy Uses Around the World

## Changing our technologies:Energy use technologies: transportation (high mileage, alternative fuel vehicles)industrial (improved efficiency, local generation)agriculture (sustainable practices)residential (improved efficiency, local generation)

- Changing our technologies:Energy use technologies: transportation* (high mileage, alternative fuel vehicles)*industrial* (improved efficiency, local generation)*agriculture* (sustainable practices)*residential* (improved efficiency, local generation)*

## Changing policy: Can we really do this? Some examples: Clean Air Acts (1967 -1990)Montreal Protocol on chlorofluorocarbons

- Changing policy: *Can we really do this?** *Some examples: *Clean Air Acts (1967 -1990)**Montreal Protocol on chlorofluorocarbons*

## Climate Change and Societal Decisions

- Industrial age begins

- Now

- Clean Air Act(s):
- air pollution, acid rain, unleaded fuel, ozone, ...

- Society can make choices that affect our environment

**Notes:**
I like this chart better that a simple chart, but I would want you to take time to explain the anomalies over the last 1000 year as you explain the model versus measure results of the last 150 years.

This is a chart that should take a couple of minutes because it basically summaries the last few charts.

## Climate Change and Societal Decisions

- Society can make choices that affect our environment

## We can do this!We can change how we live: reduce energy use emphasize sustainability reduce population growth

- We can do this!We can change how we live: r*educe energy use **emphasize sustainability **reduce population growth*
*control land use change*We can change technology: *energy source technologies**energy use technologies*We can change Policy: *to achieve these goals*

## Thank you!

## For more information
Books:
Richard Alley: The Two–Mile Time Machine. A very readable climate change book for the lay reader written by a noted Penn State Prof. 
Brian Fagen: The Long Summer. A discussion of how the warming at the end of the last ice age fostered the development of human civilization.
Jared Diamond: Collapse. As Diamond says: how societies choose to fail or succeed.
Malcolm Gladwell: The Tipping Point. A discussion of how small factors can sometimes result in large changes.
Web Resources:
Climate science web site: www.realclimate.org 
US Global Change Research Program: www.usgcrp.gov 
UN Environmental Program: www.unep.org 
NASA Earth Sciences: earthsciences.gsfc.nasa.gov   
Goddard Hydrospheric & Biospheric Sciences: neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov 
NASA Goddard Climate Sciences: www.giss.nasa.gov 
Climate change figures: www.grida.no/climate/vital/index.htm
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service: www.fas.usda.gov/grain/circular/2004/05-04/graintoc.htm 
Worldwatch: www.worldwatch.org 

- For more information
- Books:
- _Richard Alley: The Two–Mile Time Machine._ A very readable climate change book for the lay reader written by a noted Penn State Prof.
- _Brian Fagen: The Long Summer_. A discussion of how the warming at the end of the last ice age fostered the development of human civilization.
- _Jared Diamond: Collapse_. As Diamond says: how societies choose to fail or succeed.
- _Malcolm Gladwell: The Tipping Point_. A discussion of how small factors can sometimes result in large changes.
- Web Resources:
- Climate science web site: _[www.realclimate.org](http://www.worldwatch.org/)_
- US Global Change Research Program: _[www.usgcrp.gov](http://www.giss.nasa.gov/)_
- UN Environmental Program: _[www.unep.org](http://www.realclimate.org/)_
- NASA Earth Sciences: _[earthsciences.gsfc.nasa.gov](http://www.usgcrp.gov/)_
- Goddard Hydrospheric & Biospheric Sciences: _[neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov](http://www.earthsciences.gsfc.nasa.gov/)_
- NASA Goddard Climate Sciences: _[www.giss.nasa.gov](http://www.realclimate.org/)_
- Climate change figures: _[www.grida.no/climate/vital/index.htm](http://www.giss.nasa.gov/)_
- USDA Foreign Agricultural Service: www.fas.usda.gov/grain/circular/2004/05-04/graintoc.htm
- Worldwatch: www.worldwatch.org

- Climate, Water and Life on EarthPeter H. Hildebrand, Ph.D., NASA Goddard

## Where has the Earth warmed?

- More in the northern hemisphere than elsewhere

## Hurricane Intensity Increases

- Hurricane intensity changes:
- fewer category 1 storms
- more cat 4 and 5 storms

- Sea surface temperatures
- are increasing globally

**Notes:**
Hurricane destructiveness is  measured by  the power dissipation index (PDI)
PDI combines hurricane intensity and duration 
Closely related to sea surface temperature (SST)
PDI has increased with SST over past 50 years

## Greenland: Melting

**Area of melt increases each year**

## The Water Cycle and Climate Human water use 1900 – 2000 

- The Water Cycle and Climate Human water use 1900 – 2000

**Notes:**

Look at Irrigation first:
Shows steady increase consumption of land, while essentially flat per capita over thirty years (Source Worldwatch Institute)

## The Water Cycle and Climate  Human water use: Grain Production

- The Water Cycle and Climate  Human water use: Grain Production

## Residential Solar

- The Nuclear Fuel Cycle begins when uranium is mined, enriched, and manufactured into nuclear fuel, (1) which is delivered to a nuclear power plant. After usage in the power plant, the spent fuel is delivered to a reprocessing plant (2) or to a final repository (3) for geological disposition. In reprocessing 95% of spent fuel can be recycled to be returned to usage in a power plant (4).
- Nuclear Power Concerns:
- Nuclear proliferation
- Nuclear waste
- Economics

## Slide 55

## Grain Production

## Climate Change and Societal Decisions

## Antarctica: Melting and Thickening

- Thickening
- due to increased
- precipitation

- Melting around
- the edges

## Ground-based measurements of climate:
are insufficient and declining
Particularly outside N. America and Europe  
lack the uniform calibration needed to assess climate variability and change

Satellite-based observations of Earth’s global climate:
provide uniform global coverage
can be calibrated against validating measurements
Ground and airborne
explain climate change forcing:
Radiation, Aerosols, Atmospheric chemistry, Global ocean circulation, Clouds explain climate change impacts:
Sea level rise, Ozone depletion, Sea ice depletion, Ice sheet melt, Mountain glacier melt, Air quality, Polar bear habitat, Longer growing season in high latitudes and on high mountains

- are insufficient and declining
- Particularly outside N. America and Europe
- lack the uniform calibration needed to assess climate variability and change
- Satellite-based observations of Earth’s global climate:
- provide uniform global coverage
- can be calibrated against validating measurements
- Ground and airborne
- explain climate change forcing:
- Radiation, Aerosols, Atmospheric chemistry, Global ocean circulation, Clouds explain climate change impacts:
- Sea level rise, Ozone depletion, Sea ice depletion, Ice sheet melt, Mountain glacier melt, Air quality, Polar bear habitat, Longer growing season in high latitudes and on high mountains

- Why Satellite-Based Observations?

## Satellite measurement of Earth properties

-  Multiple satellites measure a wide variety of earth processes:
-  winds, temperatures, clouds, pollution, the ocean and land surface
-  Data are used for weather and climate predictions

## Satellite measurement of Earth properties

-  Cross-track scanners measure:
-  Surface temperature (land and sea)
-  Atmospheric temperature and humidity
-  Plant life (chlorophyll)
-  Ocean winds
-  Atmospheric gasses
-  Clouds and rainfall
-  ... and lots more
-  Data are used for weather and climate predictions

## Satellite measurement of Earth properties

- Data from satellites are stitched together in a computer to make a picture of the whole Earth.
- The satellites observe the full Earth more than once a day so we can measure night and day-time events.

- NASA satellite data are used worldwide to better understand the Earth and how it operates.
- We support the NOAA weather service and many other Agencies with our Earth observations.