# Presentation: 659133

## Warning Verification Issues

**Rick Smith****	**
- Performance and Evaluation           Meteorologist

- 	The government is extremely fond of amassing great quantities of statistics. These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.
- 	What must be kept ever in mind, however, is that in every case, the figures are first put down by a village watchman, and he puts down anything he damn well pleases.
- 					---Sir Josiah Stamp

## EXAMPLE

- Your WFO issued the following tornado warnings for the month:
- Kinney County		Issued 1833	Expired 1930
- Uvalde County	 	Issued 2006	Expired 2045
- Medina County		Issued 2050	Expired 2145
- Uvalde County
- Blanco County		Issued 2056	Expired 2200
- Gillespie County
- Medina County		 Issued 2144	Expired 2230

## New Policies to Take Effect 1/1/2002

- HOW WARNINGS WILL BE ENTERED INTO THE DATABASE
- All data imported into the warning database will be taken directly from the warning
- Data will not be entered into the database from any other information in the header/text of the warning

## EXAMPLE 1

- 	WUUS53 KJAN 080100                                     SVRJAN                                                            MSC001-003-005-080200-
- 	BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
- 	SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
- 	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
- 	700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001

## EXAMPLE 1

- 	WUUS53 KJAN 080100                                                       **SVRJAN**                                                                              **MSC001-003-005**-080200-
- 	BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
- 	SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
- 	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
- 	**700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001**
**	*****  UNTIL**** 800 PM CST**
**	**
**	**

## EXAMPLE 2

- 	WUUS53 KJAN 080100                                       SVRJAN                                                               MSC001-003-005-080200-
- 	BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
- 	TORNADO WARNING
- 	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
- 	700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001

## EXAMPLE 2

- 	WUUS53 KJAN 080100                                       **SVRJAN**                                                               MSC001-003-005-080200-
- 	BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
- 	**TORNADO WARNING**
- 	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
- 	700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001

## EXAMPLE 3

- 	WUUS53 KJAN 080100                                                          SVRJAN                                                                                MSC001-003-005-007-080200-
- 	BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
- 	SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
- 	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
- 	700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001
- 	THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
- 	*	SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
- 		COUNTY 001
- 	  	COUNTY 003
- 		COUNTY 005

## EXAMPLE 3

- 	WUUS53 KJAN 080100                                                          SVRJAN                                                                                **MSC001-003-005-007**-080200-
- 	BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
- 	SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
- 	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
- 	700 PM CST THU NOV 8 2001
- 	THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
- 	*	SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
- 		**COUNTY 001**
**	****  ****	****COUNTY 003**
**	****	****COUNTY 005**

## EXAMPLE 4

- 	WUUS53 KJAN 080100                                                          SVRJAN                                                                                      **MSC-001-003-005-007**-080200-
- 	 -- Extra dash before the county FIPS code
- 	 -- Invalid warning – not added to database

## EXAMPLE 5

- 	WUUS53 KJAN 080100                                                          SVRJAN                                                                                      MSC001-003-005-007-080200-
- 	BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
- 	SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
- 	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
- 	**700 PM THU NOV 8 2001**
- 	 -- Time zone indicator is missing
- 	 -- Invalid warning – not added to database

## EXAMPLE 6

- 	WUUS53 KJAN 080100                                                          SVRJAN                                                                                      MSC001-003-005-007-080200-
- 	BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
- 	SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
- 	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
- 	700 PM THU NOV 8 2001
**	*****  UNTIL 8000 PM CST**
- 	 -- Expiration time is not valid
- 	 -- Invalid warning – not added to database

## EXAMPLE 7

- 	WUUS53 KJAN 080100                                                          SVRJAN
- 	BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
- 	SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
- 	NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
- 	700 PM THU NOV 8 2001
- 	 -- UGC Code is missing
- 	 -- Invalid warning – not added to database

## EXAMPLE 8

- 	WUUS53 KJAN 080100                                                          SVRJAN                                                                                      MSC001-**03**-005-007-080200-
- 	 -- FIPS only has two digits
- 	 -- Invalid warning – not added to database

## New Rule #2

- When there are overlapping warnings for a given county, the overlap portion of the earlier warning will be removed.
- The expiration time of the first warning will be modified to be the second warning’s issuance time.

## EXAMPLE 1

- FFW Washington County 900 AM - 1100 AM
- Second FFW Washington County 1030 AM - Noon
**|-----------------------|**
**900****	****	****	****1100**
**	****	****        ****|-------------------------|**
**	****	****     ****1030****	****         ****	****      Noon**
**BECOMES...**
**|-----------------|**
**900****	****	****   1029**
**	****	****        ****|-------------------------|**
**	****	****     ****1030****	****         ****	****      Noon**

## EXAMPLE 1

- FFW Washington County 900 AM - 1100 AM
- Second FFW Washington County 1030 AM - Noon
**|-----------------------|**
**900****	****	****	****1100****	****	****	****An event at 1031 AM =****	**
**	****	****        ****|-------------------------|****	****	****LT of **_**91 minutes**_
**	****	****     ****1030****	****        ****	****      Noon**
**BECOMES...**
**|-----------------|**
**900****	****	****   1029****	****	****	****	****An event at 1031 AM =****	**
**	****	****        ****|-------------------------|****	****	****LT of **_**1 minute**_**	**
**	****	****     ****1030****	****         ****	****      Noon****	***AND...*
*	**	**	**	**	**	**the first warning is a **	**	**	**	**	**	**FALSE ALARM!**	*

## SRH Opposes this Change!!

## Monthly Reporting Reminders

- WSH wants data by the 14th of the month (report to Kelly 15th)
- If the 14th falls on a weekend or holiday, they must have data the Friday before
- I need data one day before their deadline

## Basic Definitions

- NUMBER OF WARNINGS ISSUED
- Based on county/parish
- A warning for three counties is counted as THREE county warnings
- Warning extensions are separate warnings
- For Example...
- SVR 100-130 PM
- SVR extended 129-145 PM
- Warnings issued = 2

## Basic Definitions

- NUMBER OF WARNINGS VERIFIED
- At least one event occurring in a warned county during the valid period of a warning results in one verified warning.
- An event must occur in each county/parish warned for that county warning to verify.
- For example...
- FFW for White, Brown and Red counties
- Events occur in White and Brown counties
- NUMBER OF WARNINGS ISSUED = 3
- NUMBER OF WARNINGS VERIFIED = 2

## Basic Definitions

- AVERAGE LEAD TIME
- Lead time is computed by subtracting the warning issue time from the time an event meeting reporting criteria is first reported in the county.
- An event moving into a second county creates a second event. The lead time for this event is based on the time the event first entered the county.

## Average Lead Time

- If one or more events occur in a county not covered by a warning, each missed events is assigned a lead time of zero.
- Average lead time is computed from all lead times, including zeroes.
- EXAMPLE:
- Event 1	LT=12 minutes
- Event 2	LT= 10 minutes
- Event 3	LT = ZERO
- Event 4	LT= 1 minute
- Average Lead Time	= 	_12 + 10 + 0 + 1_					        	             4
- 					=	5.8 minutes

## Average Lead Time

- 	Average lead time is computed using all events regardless of whether there was a warning or not. If an event occurs with no warning, that event is assigned a lead time of zero.
- 	EXAMPLE:
- 	Event 1	LT=10 minutes
- 	Event 2	LT=10 minutes
- 	Event 3	LT=10 minutes
- 	Event 4	LT=0 minutes (no warning)
- 	Event 5	LT=0 minutes (no warning)
- 	Event 6	LT=0 minutes (no warning)
- 	Avg Lead Time = _10+10+10+0+0+0_
- 					         6

## Average Lead Time

- There are no negative lead times.
- Lead time is computed from time event begins, not from time impacts/damage occur
- For example...
- TOR issued at 500 PM
- Tornado develops at 505 PM and moves across open country
- Tornado hits city at 520 PM
- LT is 5 minutes, NOT 20 minutes

## Basic Definitions

- NUMBER OF EVENTS
- Each event meeting warning criteria is recorded as either a warned event or a missed event.
**Total Events = Missed Events + Warned Events**
- An event that crosses county/parish lines is counted as a separate event.

## Basic Definitions

- NUMBER OF WARNED EVENTS
- Each event meeting warning criteria is recorded as either a warned event or a missed event.
- For a tornado to count as a warned event, it must be covered by a tornado warning. A tornado occurring in a severe thunderstorm warning does not count as a warned event.

## Basic Definitions

- Warned events are a subset of all events
- The number of warned events CANNOT exceed the number of events!

## Slide 30

## WSOM J-02

- “After a significant hydrometeorological event occurs, the NWS must assess its performance. This effort to review capabilities and to seek improvements is one of our highest priorities.”

## Hydrometeorology Duty Officer Manual

- Manual from WSH outlining reporting procedures
- Updated periodically
- Available at...
- _[www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hdom/](http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hdom/)_
- Username – hydromet
- Password – manual

## ROML S-01-01 filed with J-02

- Details reporting procedures for field offices
- All reports go to **Significant Event Reporting Line** 24 hours a day
- 817-978-1100 **Ext 197**

## What is a Significant Event?

- Basically...
- _Any event_ (tornado, flood, ice storm, etc)                that results in
- At least **ONE** fatality
**Five** or more serious injuries requiring hospitalization
**Significant** structural damage
- Extensive media attention

## What is a Significant Event?

- Basically...
- Any event that results in
- At least ONE fatality
- Five or more serious injuries requiring hospitalization
- Significant structural damage
**Extensive media attention**

## Media Attention

- _Minor events_ may require report IF media coverage draws attention to it
- Internet has made this more common
- We will use _restraint_ in reporting marginal events
- WSH may request information, if needed

## What is a Significant Event?

- We do NOT report...
- Individual lightning fatalities
- Heat fatalities less than five
- Traffic fatalities not DIRECTLY caused by weather

## What is a Significant Event?

- Also...
- Aviation incidents are reported via the OAV
- Marine incidents may require BOTH an OAV and an FTR memo
- If marine incident occurs within range of “public-type” warning and advisory products

## Reporting Procedures

- WFO calls Ext 197
- Voice mail message triggers a page to PEM
- PEM retrieves message and    determines the significance                  of the event
- Is criteria for a report met?
- Does event warrant notifying
- 	SRH leaders?

## Reporting the Event to WSH

- If the event is significant...
- Notify **MetWatch Office**
- MetWatch staff will be paged and will respond (similar to SRH system)
- They will condense our report down to a **one page summary** for Kelly

## Reporting the Event to WSH

- MetWatch Office needs info by 7AM
- Report to Kelly by 8 AM
- May require a report to NOAA
- May also require report to DOC, White House
- They are MOST interested in...
- Performance statistics
- When was the warning issued?
- How much lead time?

## The SIG-OPS List	

- FTR memos distributed via SIG-OPS
- Over 130 people
- RD’s, Regional MSD/HSD personnel, NOAA Public Affairs, NCEP Centers, WSH, NWS Senior Management

## Composing an FTR Memo

**MEMORANDUM FOR**: The Record
**FROM**: Richard Smith W/SR11x1
**SUBJECT**: What, Where, When
- Killer Tornado in Tuscaloosa, AL 12/16/00
**EVENT**: Describe the event
- Powerful thunderstorms spawned several tornadoes across Alabama on Saturday. One of these tornadoes caused extensive damage and killed at least seven people just south of Tuscaloosa, AL. The tornado began around 1258 PM CST.

## Composing an FTR Memo

**LOCATION**: where was the event?
- Just South of Tuscaloosa along Highway 69. Other damage was reported in the Halls and Englewood communities. All of these communities are in Tuscaloosa County, AL
**OFFICES**: which offices were affected?
**DEATHS**: number, age, gender
**INJURIES**: number, age, gender
**DAMAGE**: extent
- Extensive damage was reported with numerous homes and businesses damaged or destroyed. A mobile home park was especially hard hit, as was a new shopping center under construction.

## Composing an FTR Memo

**WATCHES**: type, valid time, lead time
- Tornado watch #808 valid 10AM to 4PM CST. Lead time to the event – approximately 3 hours.
**WARNINGS**: type, valid/lead times
- Tornado warning issued for Tuscaloosa County at 1240 PM CST. Lead time to the tornado was approximately 18 minutes.
**SERVICE**: how did we do? NOW, SVS, special actions, _staffing problems_, etc

## Composing an FTR Memo

**SYSTEMS**: any problems, highlight significant benefits
**RESPONSE**: local actions, media coverage, etc
**DISCLAIMER:**
*Any times listed pertaining to event occurrences and lead times associated with outlooks, watches and warnings are based on the best information available at the time this preliminary report was prepared. Subsequently, these data may be changed as time permits a more thorough investigation of the circumstances surrounding the event.*

## Tips on Writing the FTR

**Thanks; however, when did the tornado occur?**

- Lead Times
- To the BEGINNING OF THE EVENT, not the deaths, injuries, etc

- Subject: Tornado in Texas                                                                    Author:  Kenneth Graham at W-SR-SRH                                                 Date:    5/12/99 8:01 AM
**Attached is information concerning injuries associated with a tornado in Mason County Texas yesterday evening**

_**From Geneva, Switzerland!**_

- “Tornado warnings issued for Mason County at 608 PM valid until 655 PM.  Tornado warning was re-issued for this slow moving supercell at 650 PM valid until 755 PM.  **Time of injuries estimated at 655 PM**.”

## Tips on Writing the FTR

- Highlight accomplishments of the WFO
- Hazardous Weather Outlooks, not SPC outlooks

## To Summarize...

- Significant Event Reports are important, but can tax resources during active weather periods
- Routine events can be handled by 1-2 people
- Big events will require a team effort to get the job done