# Presentation: 045458

## 2002Freight Analysis Framework2

**T. Randall (Randy) Curlee, Ph.D.**
**Center for Transportation Analysis**
**Talking Freight Seminar**
**February 15, 2006**

## The ORNL FAF Team

**T. Randall Curlee, **Ph.D, Economics
**Frank Southworth, **Ph.D., Geography
**Bruce Peterson, **M.S., Geography
**Richard Schmoyer, **Ph.D., Statistics
**David Vogt, **Ph.D.,** **Economics
**Gbadebo Oladosu, **Ph.D., Economics
**Ingrid Busch, **Ph.D., Operations Research
**S. M. Chin, **Ph.D., Civil Engineering
**Ho-Ling Hwang, **Ph.D., Statistics
**Maxine Perry, **M.S., Geography

## Final FAF2

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

- Final FAF2
- Flows Table

- CFS Table 17

**CFS Alternatives:**
**Railcar Waybills**
**Waterborne Commerce**

**Log Linear**
**Model**

**Iterative**
**Proportional**
**Fitting**

**“****True Zero”**
**Cells from**
**Census**

**FAF****2 ****OD Methodology**

## FAF2 OD Methodology

- Flows Table

**FAF2 OD**** Methodology**

**FAF****2 ****Dimensions**
- *	**114 origins and destinations as defined and used in the ****	****2002 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) plus 17 additional ****	****international gateways and 7 international regions  **
*******	****Commodities defined at the 2-digit SCTG (Standard ****	****Classification of Transported Goods) level**
*******	****Modes defined as in the 2002 CFS – i.e. 11 separate ****	****modes, multimodal combinations, and unknown modes—****	****but reported for only 7 aggregated modes in FAF**
*******	****Two four-dimensional matrices with approximately 12 ****	****million ****	****cells**

## 138 FAF Regions

- Notes: Metropolitan areas shown in green, gateways shown in purple. Not shown: Alaska (3), Honolulu (26), Hawaii (27), and the Anchorage Gateway (115)

## FAF2 Commodities

**SCTG  -  Commodity Code****	**
**	**
**Code****	****Commodity Class**
**01****	****Live animals and live fish**
**02****	****Cereal grains**
**03****	****Other agricultural products**
**04****	****Animal feed and products of animal origin, ****	****n.e.c.**
**05****	****Meat, fish, seafood, and their preparations**
**06****	****Milled grain products and preparations, ****	****and **
**bakery products**
**07****	****Other prepared foodstuffs and fats and oils**
**08****	****Alcoholic beverages**
**09****	****Tobacco products**
**10****	****Monumental or building stone**
**11****	****Natural sands**
**12****	****Gravel and crushed stone**
**13****	****Nonmetallic minerals n.e.c.**
**14****	****Metallic ores and concentrates**
**15****	****Coal**
**16****	****Crude Petroleum**
**17****	****Gasoline and aviation turbine fuel**
**18****	****Fuel oils**
**19****	****Coal and petroleum products, n.e.c.**
**20****	****Basic chemicals**
**21****	****Pharmaceutical products**

**22****	****Fertilizers**
**23****	****Chemical products and preparations, n.e.c.**
**24****	****Plastics and rubber**
**25****	****Logs and other wood in the rough**
**26****	****Wood products**
**27****	****Pulp, newsprint, paper, and paperboard**
**28****	****Paper or paperboard articles**
**29****	****Printed products**
**30****	****Textiles, leather, and articles of textiles or ****	****leather**
**31****	****Nonmetallic mineral products**
**32****	****Base metal in primary or semi-finished ****	****forms and in finished basic shapes**
**33****	****Articles of base metal**
**34****	****Machinery**
**35****	****Electronic and other electrical equipment ****	****and components and office equipment**
**36****	****Motorized and other vehicles (including ****	****parts)**
**37****	****Transportation equipment, n.e.c.**
**38****	****Precision instruments and apparatus**
**39****	****Furniture, mattresses and mattress ****	****supports, **
**lamps, lighting fittings, and...**
**40****	****Miscellaneous manufactured products**
**41****	****Waste and scrap**
**43****	****Mixed freight**
**—****	****Commodity unknown**
**	**

## FAF2 Modes

**Truck**
**Rail**
**Water**
**Air, Air & Truck**
**Truck and Rail**
**Other Intermodal**
**Pipeline & Unknown**

## Final FAF2

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

- Final FAF2
- Flows Table

- CFS Table 17

**CFS Alternatives:**
**Railcar Waybills**
**Waterborne Commerce**

**Log Linear**
**Model**

**Iterative**
**Proportional**
**Fitting**

**“****True Zero”**
**Cells from**
**Census**

**FAF****2****  OD Methodology**

## 	*	Coefficient of variation of greater than 50% 

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

**4 dimensional matrix at state level with required mode and commodity detail**
**A very large and very sparse multi-dimensional table**
**Sparsely filled – only about 5% of cells filled**
**	*********	****Coefficient of variation of greater than 50% **
**	*********	****Disclosure rules**
**	*********	****No observations**

## Final FAF2

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

- Final FAF2
- Flows Table

- CFS Table 17

**CFS Alternatives:**
**Railcar Waybills**
**Waterborne Commerce**

**Log Linear**
**Model**

**Iterative**
**Proportional**
**Fitting**

**“****True Zero”**
**Cells from**
**Census**

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

## Census identified all missing cells for which there were no observations

**“****True Zero”**
**Cells from**
**Census**

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

**Census identified all missing cells for which there were no observations**
**Those cells assumed to be “true zeros” and constrained to be so**
**Remaining missing cells are suppressed and must be estimated**

## Final FAF2

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

- Final FAF2
- Flows Table

- CFS Table 17

**CFS Alternatives:**
**Railcar Waybills**
**Waterborne Commerce**

**Log Linear**
**Model**

**Iterative**
**Proportional**
**Fitting**

**“****True Zero”**
**Cells from**
**Census**

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

## Alternative data converted to SCTG

**CFS Alternatives:**
**Railcar Waybills**
**Waterborne Commerce**

**Log Linear**
**Model**

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

**Identifies relationships at 7 dimensional level**
*******	****Modes**
*******	****Commodities**
*******	****Origins**
*******	****Destinations**
*******	****Tons, Dollars**
*******	****Distance Bucket**
*******	****CFS, Alternative ****	****data source**
**127 terms in fully saturated model**

**Alternative data converted to SCTG**

## Final FAF2

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

- Final FAF2
- Flows Table

- CFS Table 17

**CFS Alternatives:**
**Railcar Waybills**
**Waterborne Commerce**

**Log Linear**
**Model**

**Iterative**
**Proportional**
**Fitting**

**“****True Zero”**
**Cells from**
**Census**

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

## IPF constrains margins to be consistent with CFS totals

**Iterative**
**Proportional**
**Fitting**

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

**IPF constrains margins to be consistent with CFS totals**
**Cells with values in Table 17 constrained to remain unchanged**

## Final FAF2

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

- Final FAF2
- Flows Table

- CFS Table 17

**CFS Alternatives:**
**Railcar Waybills**
**Waterborne Commerce**

**Log Linear**
**Model**

**Iterative**
**Proportional**
**Fitting**

**“****True Zero”**
**Cells from**
**Census**

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

## Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix is fully populated at required 4 dimensional level

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Table 17

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

**Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix is fully populated at required 4 dimensional level**
**Does not include flows that are out-of-scope to the CFS or flows that are generally acknowledged to be undercounted in the CFS**

## Final FAF2

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

- Final FAF2
- Flows Table

- CFS Table 17

**CFS Alternatives:**
**Railcar Waybills**
**Waterborne Commerce**

**Log Linear**
**Model**

**Iterative**
**Proportional**
**Fitting**

**“****True Zero”**
**Cells from**
**Census**

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

## 15 special studies to estimate Out-of-Scopes and Undercounts (with MacroSys)

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

**15 special studies to estimate Out-of-Scopes and Undercounts (with MacroSys)**
**Farm Based Movements**
**Fisheries**
**Crude Petroleum**
**Natural Gas**
**Municipal Solid Waste**

## ORNL disaggregated all Out-of-Scopes and Undercounts to the required FAF regional level

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

**ORNL disaggregated all Out-of-Scopes and Undercounts to the required FAF regional level**
**Methodologies specialized to specific flows**

## Final FAF2

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

- Final FAF2
- Flows Table

- CFS Table 17

**CFS Alternatives:**
**Railcar Waybills**
**Waterborne Commerce**

**Log Linear**
**Model**

**Iterative**
**Proportional**
**Fitting**

**“****True Zero”**
**Cells from**
**Census**

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

## Out-of-Scope Matrix added to Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

- Final FAF2
- Flows Table

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

**Out-of-Scope Matrix added to Enhanced CFS Flows Matrix**
**Straightforward both conceptually and mechanically**

## We thus arrive at the Final FAF2 Flows Table

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

- Final FAF2
- Flows Table

- CFS Table 17

**CFS Alternatives:**
**Railcar Waybills**
**Waterborne Commerce**

**Log Linear**
**Model**

**Iterative**
**Proportional**
**Fitting**

**“****True Zero”**
**Cells from**
**Census**

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

**We thus arrive at the Final FAF****2**** Flows Table**

## Questions??

- Flows Matrix

- CFS Out-of-Scope
- Sectors

- Final FAF2
- Flows Table

- CFS Table 17

**CFS Alternatives:**
**Railcar Waybills**
**Waterborne Commerce**

**Log Linear**
**Model**

**Iterative**
**Proportional**
**Fitting**

**“****True Zero”**
**Cells from**
**Census**

**FAF****2**** OD Methodology**

**Questions??**