# Presentation: 018433

## Regional Air Quality Management in Response to Global Change Tools for Supporting Decision-Makers

**Dan Loughlin  (ORD)**
**Bryan Hubbell (OAR)**
**Darryl Weatherhead (OAR)**
**U.S. Environmental Protection Agency**
**Gary Kleiman**
**NESCAUM**
**CCSP Workshop: Climate Science in Support of Decision Making**
**Arlington, VA,  November 14-16, 2005**

## EPA-ORD Program Objectives

- EPA’s Role in the Climate Change Science Program:
- Assess the impacts of global change on *air quality*
- Develop tools to assist EPA, regional, state, and local decision-makers in developing cost-effective, robust adaptation strategies
- Focus on Year 2050
- Consider factors such as:
- Population growth and redistribution
- Economic growth
- Land use change
- Resource constraints
- Technology and fuel use changes
- Climate changes (temperature, precipitation, solar isolation)
- Current and expected national, regional, and state actions

## Modeling Process

- Health &
- Ecosystem Benefits & Costs

**Scenario **
**Assumptions**
- Population & Economic Growth
- Future Technology Characteristics
- Climate Change
- Resources Constraints
- Energy/Environmental Policies

## Modeling Process

- Health &
- Ecosystem Benefits & Costs

**Emissions**

**Scenario **
**Assumptions**
- Population & Economic Growth
- Future Technology Characteristics
- Climate Change
- Resources Constraints
- Energy/Environmental Policies

## Why Energy and Air Quality?

_**Air Pollution**_
**Contribution to **
**anthropogenic**
**emissions:**
**NOx ~ 95%**
**SOx ~ 89%**
**CO   ~ 95%**
**NH4 ~ 62%**
**Hg   ~ 87%**
**Air Quality Concerns:**
**Ozone**
**PM2.5**
**Acid deposition**
**Toxics**

**Today’s Energy System**

- Uranium

- Natural Gas

- Oil

- Oil

- Refining

-    Coal

- Renewables

- Electricity Generation

- Industry

- Industry

- Commercial

- Residential

- Automobiles

## Why Energy and Air Quality?

_**Air Pollution**_
**Demands:**
**Emissions:**
**NOx**
**SOx**
**CO**
**NH4**
**Hg**
**Temperature:**
**Air Quality**

**Tomorrow’s Energy Demands with Today’s Technologies**

- Uranium

- Natural Gas

- Oil

- Oil

- Refining

-    Coal

- Renewables

- Electricity Generation

- Industry

- Industry

- Commercial

- Residential

- Automobiles

**+**

**+**

**+**

## Why Energy and Air Quality?

**Uranium**

**Fossil Fuels**

- Oil

**Refining & Processing**

**H****2**** Generation**

**Clean Energy**

**Biomass**

**Combustion**

**Nuclear Power**

**Gasification**

**Renewable**
**Resources**

**Tomorrow’s Energy Demands with New Technologies**

**Carbon **
**Sequestration**

- Industry

- Industry

- Commercial

- Residential

- Automobiles

_**Air Pollution**_
**Demands:**
**Emissions:**
**NOx**
**SOx**
**CO**
**NH4**
**Hg**
**Temperature:**
**Air Quality**

**+**

**+**

**+/-?**

**?**

## Adaptation in Regional Context

- User:
- 	State or regional air quality planner
- Goal:
-     Evaluate actions for maintaining or improving ambient air quality under various global change scenarios
- Options:
- 	Smart growth programs
- 	Renewable energy subsidies
- 	Light duty vehicle feebates
- 	Heavy duty vehicle and fleet programs
- 	Energy efficiency programs
- Example:   Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
-                       (NESCAUM)

## A Regional Energy/Emissions Model

***A Regional Energy/Emissions Model***

- Pilot Study:
- 6-state New England region
- Collaboration with
-    NESCAUM

**EPA has funded tool development**

## Pilot Study

- NESCAUM’s Energy/Emissions Model: NE-MARKAL

***Pilot Study***

## Example NE-MARKAL Applicationby NESCAUM

**Current New England**
**NOx Emissions**

- Light duty vehicles
- contribute 41% of
- man-made NOx emissions

## Example NE-MARKAL Application by NESCAUM

***Example NE-MARKAL Application by NESCAUM***

- 0.0

- 0.2

- 0.4

- 0.6

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- 1.0

- 1.2

- 1.4

- 1.6

- 2005

- 2008

- 2011

- 2014

- 2017

- 2020

- 2023

- 2026

- 2029

**NOx (indexed to 2005)**

**Projections of Light Duty NOx Emissions**

**Illustrative Results... Please do not cite.**

## Example Application

- Feebate: A revenue-neutral policy in which rebates are given on fuel-efficient car purchases and fees are charged on non-fuel efficient vehicles

**Illustrative Results... Please do not cite.**

## Example Application

**Conventional Technology**

**Projected**

**Technological Potential**

- 0.0

- 0.2

- 0.4

- 0.6

- 0.8

- 1.0

- 1.2

- 1.4

- 1.6

- 2005

- 2008

- 2011

- 2014

- 2017

- 2020

- 2023

- 2026

- 2029

**NOx (indexed to 2005)**

**Projections of Light Duty NOx Emissions**

**Illustrative Results... Please do not cite.**

## Tool Development Criteria

**Operational on desktop computer**
**User-friendly**
**	****By decision-maker or analyst**
**Design:**
**	****Leverage existing EPA (ORD &OAR) and public domain tools **
**	****	****MIMS – Multimedia Integrated Modeling System**
**	****	****RSM – Response Surface Model**
**	****	****VPA – Visual Policy Analyzer**
**	****	****BenMAP – Benefits analysis and mapping program**
**	****	****MARKAL – MARKet ALocation energy system model**
**	****	**

## Tool Components

***Tool Components***

**Energy**
**Model**

**Report**
**Generator**

**MIMS**

**Air Quality**
**Model**

**Benefits**
**Model**

**Graphical User Interface**

**Scenario**
**Options**

**Output**
**Reports**

**User**

## Prototype Decision Support Tool

***Prototype Decision Support Tool***

## Viewers for Model Outputs: Tables

***Viewers for Model Outputs: Tables***

## Slide 19

## Viewers for Model Outputs: RSM

***Viewers for Model Outputs: RSM***

## Parametric Sensitivity Analysis

***Parametric Sensitivity Analysis***

-   Understand model responses to stimuli

## Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

-   Characterize uncertainty in
-      model results
-   Identify key relationships
-      among inputs and outputs

**Monte Carlo Simulation**

## Global Sensitivity Analysis

## Ongoing and Future Activities

- Tailor for NESCAUM use
- Integrate NE-MARKAL and BenMAP
- Improve graphical user interface to facilitate policy analyses of interest to regional decision-makers
- Work with NESCAUM to test and evaluate the design
- Learn from experience and work with NESCAUM and other regions to develop/apply next generation decision support tools.