# Presentation: 735847

## National Weather Service1st Quarter Review 

***March 26, 2003***

## FY 2003 1st Quarter - OR&F

**FY 2003 1****st**** Quarter - OR&F**

| NOAA Allocation | NWS Estimate | Actual | % Variance | Actual Variance |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $93.9 | $132.1M | $127.7M | 3.3% | $4.4M |

## FY 2003 1st Quarter - PAC

**FY 2003 1****st**** Quarter - PAC**

| NOAA Allocation | NWS Estimate | Actual | % Variance | Actual Variance |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $11.6M | $6.0M | $3.7M | 38.3% | $2.3M |

## Administrator’s Metrics

**Tornado Lead Time**

|  |  | 2001 | 2002 |  2003 |  |  |  |  2004 |  2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lead Time Annual Goal |  |  | 11.0 | 12.0* |  |  |  | 12.0 | 13.0 |
| Lead Time Actual | 10.0 |  | 12.0 | 12.0 | - | - | - | N/A | N/A |
| NEXRAD PI ($M) | 8.3 |  | 8.3 | 8.2 |  |  |  | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| NEXRAD O&M ($M) | 38.7 |  | 40.0 | 39.7 |  |  |  | 42.3 | 42.3 |
| AWIPS PI ($M) | 15.9 |  | 16.3 | 16.2 |  |  |  | 14.1 | 11.9 |
| AWIPS O&M ($M) | 35.3 |  | 36.5 | 36.3 |  |  |  | 37.6 | 37.6 |

***Goal adjusted for FY03**

**1****st**** Quarter Actual**

## Administrator’s Metrics

**Flash Flood Lead Time**

|  | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 |  |  |  | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lead  Time Annual Goal |  | 45.0 | 47.0* |  |  |  | 50.0* | 53.0* |
| Lead Time Actual | 46.0 | 52.0 | 42.0 | - | - | - | N/A | N/A |
| NEXRAD PI ($M) | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 |  |  |  | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| NEXRAD O&M ($M) | 38.7 | 40.0 | 39.7 |  |  |  | 42.3 | 42.3 |
| AWIPS PI ($M) | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.2 |  |  |  | 14.1 | 11.9 |
| AWIPS O&M ($M) | 35.3 | 36.5 | 36.3 |  |  |  | 37.6 | 37.6 |

***Goal adjusted for FY03**

**1****st**** Quarter Actual**

## Administrator’s Metrics

| Annual Goal |  | 142 | 120 | 115 | 108 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Actual | 126 | 124 |  |  |  |
| Budget ($M) | $5.2 | $6.4 | $6.6 | $6.8 | $6.8 |

**Tropical Prediction Center*****Yearly average 48 Hour Track Forecast Error, Atlantic Basin***

**Goal**

**Actual**

## Administrator’s Metrics

|  | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NH Operational | .785 | .791 | .820 | .820 | .830 |
| NH Control | .716 | .712 | .720 | .720 | .720 |
| NH % Improvement | 9.6% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 15% |
| SH Operational | .759 | .781 | .795 | .810 | .820 |
| SH Control | .635 | .664 | .667 | .670 | .670 |
| SH % Improvement | 19.5% | 17.6% | 19.0% | 20.8% | 22% |
| Budget  ($M) | $1.2 | $1.5 | $1.6 | $1.7 | $1.7 |

**5 Day Global Weather Model Performance **
**(Anomaly Correlation at 500mb)**

## Administrator’s Metrics

|  | FY 2001 | FY 2002 | FY 2003 | FY 2004 | FY 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Received (M/Day)
Operationally | 2.00 | 86 | 130 | 195 | 250 |
| Selected (M/Day) | 0.96 | 27.4 | 25 | 35 | 40 |
| Assimilated (M/Day) | 0.34 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 13 |
| Exponential increase over FY00 | 0 | 18x | 22x | 22x | 38x |
| Budget ($M) | - | $6.7 | $8.5 | $8.5 | $8.5 |

**Operational Usage of Satellite Data**

## Administrator’s Metrics

|  | FY 2001 | FY 2002 | FY 2003 | FY 2004 | FY 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Non-Satellite Obs. | 88,075 | 99,950 | 105,650 | 110,900 | 111,500 |
| Satellite Obs. | 1,013,500 | 2,213,500 | 2,213,500 | 4,513,500 | 4,513,500 |
| Budget ($M) | - | $6.7 | $8.5 | $8.5 | $8.5 |

**Weekly Ocean Observations for Climate Models**

## Administrator’s Metrics

| Fiscal Year | 2000 |  |  |  | 2001 |  |  |  | 2002 |  |  |  | 2003 |  |  |  | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outyear Projection |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 20.0 |  |  |  | 22.0 | 24.0 |
| GPRA Measure | 27.0 |  |  |  | 20.0 |  |  |  | 18.0 |  |  |  | - |  |  |  | - | - |
| Quarterly Actual | - | - | - | 20.3 | -50.0 | -13.9 | 67.9 | 22.0 | 2.7 | -25.0 | 58.5 | 36.8 | -29.0 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Budget ($M) | - |  |  |  | 5.17 |  |  |  | 5.28 |  |  |  | 5.49 |  |  |  | 5.70 | 5.70 |

**Climate****Seasonal Temperature Forecast Skill**

## Administrator’s Metrics

| FY 2002 | N/A |
| --- | --- |
| FY 2003 | 1 |

**Grants Processing ****NWS Competitive Programs****Federal Register Notices Published Before January 15, 2003**

**Administrator’s Metrics**

## Congressional Reports

**Maryland Tornado Report**

| Action | Due Date | Completion Date |
| --- | --- | --- |
| NWS Forwards to NOAA | 12/16/02 | 12/13/02 |
| NOAA Forwards to DOC | - | 12/23/02 |
| DOC Forwards to OMB | - | 1/24/03 |
| OMB Provides Clearance | - | 3/13/03 |
| DOC Forwards to Congress | February 2003 | Pending |

## Congressional Reports

**Ethridge Report**

| Action | Due Date | Completion Date |
| --- | --- | --- |
| NWS Forwards to NOAA | Not Established | Pending |
| NOAA Forwards to DOC | - | Pending |
| DOC Forwards to OMB | - | Pending |
| OMB Provides Clearance | - | Pending |
| DOC Forwards to Congress | January 29, 2003 | Pending |