# Presentation: 671267

## Development and Implementation of NHC/JHT Products in ATCF

- <date/time>

**Development and Implementation of NHC/JHT Products in ATCF**

***   ****** ******Charles R. Sampson NRL (PI) ***
***Contributors:  ***
***Ann Schrader, Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, Chris Sisko, Jim Gross, Chris Lauer and Colin McAdie, Tim Marchok***
***March 2006***
***Acknowledgements: NOAA USWRP JHT***

## NHC Forecast Process

- <date/time>

**Synoptic Hour**
**Enter Fix Obs, Update Best Track, Initialize Models**

**Synoptic +1 hour**
**Create Consensus, Create Official Forecast**

**Synoptic +2 hours**
**Conference Call, Create Advisories**

**Synoptic +3 hours**
**Issue advisories**

_**TC Forecast Process**_
**Enter Fix Observations**
**Update BT**
**Model Initialization**
**Create Consensus**
**Forecast Creation**
**Conference Call**
**Create Advisories**
**Issue Advisories**

**A**

**T**

**C**

**F**

## Seven Proposed Tasks

- <date/time>

**Seven Proposed Tasks**

- Evaluate wind radii CLIPER algorithms (80%)
- Implement Monte Carlo wind probabilities in ATCF (90%)
- Implement GPCE track probabilities
- Data retention (90%)
- Display (90%)
- Evaluation (10%)
- Streamline imagery overlays (90%)
- Improve objective best track capability (0%)
- Automate TC fix entry in NHC operations (90%)
- Modify ATCF user interface/code to improve efficiency (70%)

## Wind Radii CLIPER Evaluation

- Two statistical models implemented on ATCF
- DRCL:  Atlantic, E. Pacific, W. Pacific
- Assumes an idealized vortex, modified by storm motion and initial conditions
- Developed by DeMaria (NOAA), Knaff (CIRA), ...
- MRCL: Atlantic only
- 60 separate equations ( 4 quadrants, 5 taus, 3 radii)
- Developed by McAdie (NHC)

## Avg 34 kt Radii Forecast Errors for 2004 Atlantic Season (06- 16)

- 765 771 761

- 896 899 899

- 872 887 864

- 822 836 816

- 707 709 669

- 632 633 628

- OFCL was skillful out to about 24 hours.  Errors ~ 10% of average radii at
- 12h, ~ 30% of radii at 72.

## Avg 50 kt Radii Forecast Errors for 2004 Atlantic Season (06- 16)

- 585 596 576

- 671 664 664

- 647 665 646

- 620 630 603

- 567 575 554

- 507 507 502

- OFCL was skillful out to about 24 hours. Errors ~ 15% of average radii at
- 12h, ~30% at 72.

## Avg 64 kt Radii Forecast Errors for 2004 Atlantic Season (06- 16)

- 476 474 449

- 508 508 508

- 496 502 484

- 477 482 470

-   0 452436

-   0 418 403

- OFCL was skillful out to about 24 hours. Errors ~ 15% of average radii at 12h, ~ 25% at 72.

## Wind Radii CLIPER Conclusions 

- <date/time>

_**Wind Radii CLIPER Conclusions**_** **

- Both models adequate baselines
- Official forecast has skill to about 24 hrs
- Similar results for DRCL in EP and WP basins

## Monte Carlo Wind Probabilities

- <date/time>

_**Monte Carlo Wind Probabilities**_

**Messages**

- ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
- TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
- HURRICANE TESTPROB WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
- NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL792005
- 2100 UTC SAT OCT 22 2005
-    ...........

**Breakpoints**

**Grids**

## Goerss Prediction Consensus Error (GPCE)

**(24 hour forecast)**

- Goerss Probability Consensus Error (GPCE) computation, display, retention of the error radii complete.

## Goerss Prediction Consensus Error (GPCE)

**(48 hour forecast)**

## Goerss Prediction Consensus Error (GPCE)

**(72 hour forecast)**

## Goerss Prediction Consensus Error  (GPCE)

**(96 hour forecast)**

## Goerss Prediction Consensus Error  (GPCE)

**(120 hour forecast)**

## Streamline Satellite Imagery Overlay, Add Products

- Imagery from NRL TC Page can be retrieved and displayed.   RH 4 and NHC firewall issues now fixed.  New products can be added on request.

## User Interface/Forecaster Efficiency 

- <date/time>

_**User Interface/Forecaster Efficiency**_** **

- ~ 35 NHC requirements addressed
- Varying degrees of difficulty
- ATCF Requirements Lists (2005/2006)
- GUI changes
- Message changes
- New capabilities

## Track Function Improvements / Enhancements

***Positive Impact: improved editing (all Centers)...***

- Best Track editing dialog has been improved by adding wind radii.  NHC now best tracks wind radii at the end of the season.

## Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements

**Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements**
***Positive Impact: time saving (all Centers)...***

- Capability added to allow for zoom/unzoom/full-map snap to while keeping forecast track dialog open.
- Note – last year you had to quit the dialog, re-zoom and then re-enter the dialog to continue the forecast track preparation

## Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements

**Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements**
***Positive Impact: time saving and flexibility (all Centers)...***

- Forecast dialog button allows call up of objective aids while preparing the forecast track.  Clear Aids button of course clears the currently displayed guidance and quick re-selection of other objective aids is now available.
- Note – Allows user to quickly alter the displayed objective aids.  The procedure to accomplish this last took a bit a cycling through menu options to accomplish this task.

## Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements

**Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements**
***Positive Impact: flexibility (all Centers)...***

- Open up view Intensity Graph and the user can click on a Tau/Intensity which will link to the Intensity Forecast Tau and make the change there.

**Click on a (Tau,Intensity) coordinate and it feeds back into  the Intensity forecast dialog**

## Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements

**Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements**
***Positive Impact: enhanced display and flexibility (all Centers)...***

- Option button in Forecast wind radii dialog calls an additional dialog display to allow user selection of wind radii at select Taus or select radii values.

## Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements

***Positive Impact: enhanced display and flexibility (all Centers)...***

- Option to select and deselect the display of wind radii information and/or intensity for objective aids containing that particular information.

## Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements

**Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements**
***Positive Impact: flexibility (all Centers)...***

- Open up the view Graph (radii quadrant) and the user can click on a Tau/radii value which will link to the Wind radii Forecast Tau and make the change there.

**Click on a (Tau,radii) coordinate and it feeds back into  the wind radii forecast dialog**

## Forecast Function Improvements / Enhancements

***Positive Impact: flexibility (all Centers)...***

- Display of objective aids out to 10 days.  Internal objective aids merge routine allows forecast hours out to 10 days.

## Advisory Improvements / Enhancements

**Advisory Improvements / Enhancements**
***Positive Impact: additional information and time savings (NOAA/NWS only)...***

- In the advisory composition dialog, there are now two geography references.

## Advisory Improvements / Enhancements

**Advisory Improvements / Enhancements**

- In advisory composition, capability to selection of the forecast type (normal, inland, ...)as a function of Tau.

## Enhancement for Statistics

**Dialogs added for NHC homogeneous fix statistics. **

**Enhancement for Statistics**

## Enhancement for Objective Aids

**Toggle on/off thick lines.**

## Enhancement for Objective Aids

**Toggle current selected guidance to Current, -06, -12, -24, -36 or –48h**

## Enhancement for Objective Aids

**Toggle on/off currently selected aid(s).**

## Enhancement for Forecast Wind Radii

**Circle option for wind radii**

## Enhancement for Forecast Wind Radii

- Use previous wind radii values button.

## Enhancement for Forecast Wind Radii

- Populate all Taus with Tau 0 wind radii

## Enhancement for Forecast Wind Radii

- Use DeMaria Wind Radii for current selected Tau

## Enhancement for Forecast Wind Radii

- Use DeMaria Wind Radii for **ALL** Taus.

## Enhancement for Forecast Wind Radii

- Delete current Tau wind radii (i.e. zero out all values)

## Conclusions

- <date/time>

**Conclusions**

- Wind radii CLIPER algorithms evaluated (80%)
- Monte Carlo wind probabilities in ATCF (90%)
- GPCE track probabilities
- Data retention (90%)
- Display (90%)
- Evaluation (10%)
- Imagery overlay capability (90%)
- Objective best track capability (0%)
- Automate TC fix entry in NHC operations (90%)
- Modify ATCF user interface/code to improve efficiency (70%)