# Presentation: 372771

## Shift Organization and Responsibility

**Brian Motta**
**OCWWS Training Division**

## Main Points

**New World of Forecasting**
**Priorities / Situational Awareness**
**Shift Configuration**
**Flexible Work Chunks**
**Shift Management Challenges**
**Bad Habits to Watch For**
**Making it work in your office**
**Discussion Issues**

## Main Points

**Operational Priorities / Situational Awareness**
**Shift Configuration**
**Overlap**
**Shift-change Briefing/Pitfall**
**Grid Management**
**Forecaster team concept**
**Flexible Work Chunks**
**Task Divisions**
**Programmatic, by Wx Element**
**Hard/Floating ST/LT breakpoint**
**Shift Divisions**
**Media/NDFD/other deadlines**
**Bad Habits to Watch For**
**Using GFE for Zone Generation Specifically**
**Local Office Policies...better to coord/collab on methodologies**
**How to make it work in your office**
**Discussion Issues**

## NWS Duty Priorities

**The mission of the NWS, in part, is “to provide weather and flood warnings, public forecasts and advisories for all US, territories, adjacent waters, primarily for the protection of life and property.”**
**Therefore, workload priority important**
**Warnings, Watches, Advisories**
**Mission Critical Observations**
**Forecasts, Observations, and Basic Weather Watch**
**Non-critical Public Service**
**Training, Development, and Focal Point Duties**

## New World of Forecasting

**Use IFPS for meteorologically consistent picture of the weather  days 1-7**
**Short Term forecaster in grids 24 hours a day**
**Multiple forecasters may be in data base – as dictated by weather**
**Forecast collaboration rather than coordination**

## New World of Forecasting

**Use GFE/IFPS to paint meteorologically consistent picture of the weather for days 1-7**
**Grids drive legacy product updates**
**Short Term forecaster in grids 24 hours a day**
**Multiple forecasters may be in data base – as dictated by weather**
**Forecast collaboration rather than coordination**

## Shift Configuration

**What’s an event?**
- New model guidance that changes thinking
- Dropping first period – adding new day 7
- Local customer needs
- Observed weather doesn’t match forecast

-  **Overlap**
** ****Shift-change Briefings**
** ****Grid Management**
** ****Forecaster team concept**

## Flexible Work Chunks

**Flexible Work Chunks**

-  **Task/Grid Divisions**
** ****Programmatic, by Wx Element**
** ****Hard/Floating ST/LT breakpoint**
** ****Shift Divisions**
** ****Media/NDFD/other deadlines**
** ****Easier to respond to weather, unplanned events on shift**

## Shift Management Challenges

**The Lead needs to LEAD**
**Time, data, and people resources must be managed each shift**
**Everyone’s time is part of the forecast team pool**
**Shift duties and professional development time are flexible**
**Multiple forecasters in data base**
**Real time feedback**

## Shift Management Challenges

**The Lead needs to LEAD**
**Time, data, and people resources must be managed each shift**
**Everyone’s time is part of the forecast team pool**
**Shift duties and professional development time are flexible**

**Multiple forecasters working on data base**
**Real time feedback**

## Bad Habits to Watch

**Shift-change briefing on the grids, not on the weather!**

** ****Using GFE for Zone Generation**
**   ****Specifically**
** ****Local Office Policies...better to**
**   ****coordinate on methodologies**
** ****Frequent coordination versus**
**   ****collaboration**

## Event Driven Updates

**Scheduled Issuances of legacy products?**
**No Updates – “always current” NWS products you can count on**
**What’s an event?**
**New model guidance that changes thinking**
**Dropping first period– add new day 7**
**Local customer needs **
**Observed weather doesn’t match forecast**

## Verification/Quality Assurance

**What do we look at to determine quality and timeliness?**
**What’s a late forecast ?**

## Some Things To Look At

**Temporal workload distribution – do your shift hours match workload**
**Division of forecast responsibility**
**Collaboration versus coordination**
**How can our office get more meteorological information to our customers now!**
**Product quality feedback to staff**

## Make it work in your office

**Be onboard – **
**Either IFPS works or we will be out of the forecast business**
**IFPS is complicated-**
**A lot of problems are configuration issues**
**Feedback problems and solutions**
**Continuous training –**
**Provide a means for sharing techniques between forecasters **

## Make it work in your office

**GFE provides tools – now we need more science**
**Smart Tools**
**Smart initializations**
**Avoid re-initialization syndrome**
**Forecast nudging (no cancer)**
**Prioritize work**
**Not going to be doing grids beyond next 6 hrs during severe weather**
**Different experience levels**
**Awareness of shifts at neighboring offices**
**Avoiding WOI- forecast decision making**
**HMT role**

## Making it work in your office

**GFE provides tools – now we need more science**
**Smart Tools**
**Smart initializations**
**Better starting point lessens editing workload**
**Avoid re-initialization syndrome**
**Forecast nudging (no cancer)**
**Prioritize work**
**Not going to be doing grids beyond next 6 hrs during severe weather**
**Forecasters with different experience levels**
**Awareness of shifts at neighboring offices**
**Avoiding WOI- forecast decision making**
**HMT role, other staff roles **

## Re-analyze The Way Your Office Does Business

**Office Management Team must continually reinforce the vision**
**We don’t produce WFO xxx products, we produce part of the NWS product suite **
**Don’t sit there complaining – get feedback into the stream through Regional channels**
**Changes are coming faster than ever before – is your staff ready to handle that?**

## Re-analyze The Way Your Office Does Business

**Office Team must continually reinforce the vision**
**We produce part of NWS product suite**
**Temporal workload distribution – do your shift hours match workload**
**Division of forecast responsibility**
**Collaboration versus coordination**
**How can our office get more meteorological information to our customers**
**Product quality feedback to staff**

## Discussion / Questions?

-  **1.)**