# Presentation: 010403

## Flash Flood Forecasting as an Element of Multi-Hazard Warning Systems

**Flash Flood Forecasting as an Element of Multi-Hazard Warning Systems**
**Wolfgang E. Grabs**
**Chief, Water Resources Division**
**WMO**

## Global Distribution of Natural Hazards (1993-2002)

## Developing countries are hit the hardest ...

**Developing countries are hit the hardest ...**

## WMO Works With NMHSs to ...

- Increase awareness of hazards
- High impact weather, climate, hydrological events, storm surges, tsunamis, etc.
- Provide warnings that are easily accessible  and understandable
- Better utilize, integrate and extend existing warning services
- Enable effective decision-making by individuals and agencies through translating complex technical information into a message that can enable any member of community to take appropriate action.

## WMO Global Network Includes ...

- National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of its 187 Members
- 10 International Scientific and Technical Programmes (Weather, Climate and Water)
- Basic infrastructure, observing, research, modeling and forecasting, early warnings development and dissemination, Capacity building, technology transfer, education and public outreach)
- Three World Meteorological Centres and 40 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers
- Operated or supported by NMHSs
- WMO Secretariat based in Geneva
- Coordination of activities at international and regional levels
- Support NMHSs for enhancement of their services

## How Does the Global Operational Network of WMO Operate? 

**NMHSs deliver data and early warning services**

**3 World Meteorological           Centres**
**40 Regional Specialized Centers**

**NMHSs of 187 countries contribute to Global Observing System every day**

**Global Telecommunication System- 32 Regional Tele-communication  Hubs**

## WMO’s Global Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System

## WMO Research Programmes Advance Knowledge of Natural Hazards and Their Changing Patterns 

**Extending limits and quality of predictions and early warnings of hazards from next hour to longer timescales **

## National Meteorological and Hydrological Services are operational 24/7 organizations responsible for Monitoring, Detecting, Developing and Disseminating Early Warnings for Natural Hazards Related                                              to Weather, Climate and Water ...

- Severe storms, tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons), storm surges, floods, cold spells, heat waves, droughts, forest fires, locust swarms, etc...

## The Flood Forecasting Initiative

_** **__**B**__**etween meteorological and hydrological services**_
**Meteorological information and forecasts are often not provided in a form usable for hydrological forecasting, **
**Non-standardized data archiving, data formats and transmission protocols severely limit timely access to data and information,**
**Use of different forecasting concepts, methods and technical language,**

**PROGRAMME HIGHLIGHTS**

_**Between forecasters and forecast users**_
**Forecasting is often not objective-driven; different users of forecasting information require specific forecasting products,**
**Use technical vocabulary in forecast and warning dissemination**

**The Flood Forecasting Initiative**

***Improve the capacity of meteorological and hydrological services to jointly deliver timely and more accurate products and services required in flood forecasting and warning and in collaborating with disaster managers. ***

**COMMUNICATION GAP**

**Notes:**
WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative Regional Workshops:
DMC, Nairobi, July 2003 for East African Region
Pretoria (October 2003) for Southern Africa
Valencia (March 2004) for Ibero-American countries -120 participants from 20 countries
West Africa – 3rd trimester 2004

## Traditional Approach:

- Forecasting and warning services provided by government agencies are largely based on single hazard system approaches.
_**Shortfalls**_:
- Multitude of forecasting and warning systems that often lack interoperability;
- Basic infrastructure and reporting systems are duplicated.
- Sector-focused early warning and disaster management, lack of systems integration

## WMO Multi-Hazard Strategy for Natural Disaster Risk Reduction

- Coordinated, user-driven approach
- Strong partnerships, international, regional and national levels
- Advance global capabilities for space- and land-based observations
- WMO’s observation programmes
- GEOSS
- Enhanced early warnings
- Global capabilities deliverd at regional & national levels
- Enhanced role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
- National capacity building, training, sharing best practices
- Awareness raising and education

## Multi-Hazard Systems: 

**General National Context**
**Multi-hazard Warning Systems must be developed and implemented within an overall (national) disaster management plan as part of the overall national development plan**
**Flash Flood Warning Systems need to be part of an Integrated Flood Management Framework**

## From Storm-Surge Warning to Coastal Flood Management

- _National Hydrological Services_ prepare coastal flood warnings based on storm-surge forecasts developed by _National Meteorological Services_ and communicate with relevant authorities to ensure timely and accurate flood warnings.

## Human loss has been reduced dramatically (Case of Japan) 

***Human loss ******has been****** reduced dramatically (Case of Japan)****** ***

- Source: 水害統計

- Year

- Typhoon tracking forecast was started in 1953

- Death (persons), Damage (billion yen)

- TV coverage (%)

**Number of death by flood**

**Penetration rate of TV**

**Notes:**
This is a case of Japan. In 1953 ... In 1959 ... Since around 1960, human loss by flood has been reduced dramatically as you see in a red line.

## Maximum Wind Speed: 225km/hr

- Number of Death: **138,882**

***Human loss ******has been****** reduced dramatically (Case of Bangladesh)***

**1991 Cyclone in Bangladesh **

- Maximum Wind Speed: 220km/hr
- Number of Death: **134**

- Accurate and timely forecasting system
- Adequate proper warning
-                               dissemination operation
- Social mobilization and awareness raising
- Proper coordination among
-                                   government agencies

**1997 Cyclone in Bangladesh **

- Source: State of the Environment, Bangladesh 2001, UNEP

**Notes:**
This is a case of Bangladesh. In 1991 ... In 1997 ... This can be happened, because Bangladesh has established an effective early warning, through ... 

## Stages of Multi-Hazard End-to-End Early Warnings

- Commitment, collaboration, coordination, and information sharing
- - at international, regional, national and local levels
- Integrated Observing Systems and hazard forecasting and warnings;
- Integration of risk information in the warning messages;
- Distributing warning messages to all stakeholders
- Preparedness and response activities
- Educating the public and other stakeholders

***Communication is the backbone for integration!***

## End-to-End Early Warning SystemsNeed for Multi-hazard Approach

- It is essential that EWS are available for all hazards, while ensuring _operational effectiveness, cost effectiveness and sustainability_ of these systems over time.
- Development and sustainability of effective end-to-end EWS is costly and resource intensive.

## Multi-Hazard approach: best return on investment

**Realization of organizational, technical and operational, dissemination synergies**
**More effective integrated warning information and services ********Better decisions (e.g., better integrated hydro-meteorological warnings) **
**Cost effectiveness, sustainability, more effective utilization of resources**
**On-going improvements due to more frequent use of the system**

**Notes:**
To this end, a multi-hazard approach would enable building on the existing EWS technical and organizational capacities and infrastructures of various partners, while realizing the synergies at different stages of end-to-end EWS process, including, 
exploiting the maximum capacity of observational networks to observe multiple hazards when technically appropriate,
 utilisation of technical operational regional and national warning centres and their services for multi-disciplinary multi-hazard modelling and forecasting capacities, when technically appropriate, 
 efficient and effective utilisation of the global telecommunication networks for dissemination of data and information on hazards with large scale impacts
 ongoing improvement of national dissemination (alert) and response mechanisms through their frequent use, 
 cost-effectiveness and efficiency for maintenance of these systems.  [1] The WMO Global Telecommunications System (GTS) is the operational 24/7 global network of telecommunication facilities and centres connecting countries and territories through their National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs).  WMO GTS is the backbone systems for global exchange of multi-hazard data and information, including all meteorological and related data; weather, water and climate analyses and forecasts; tsunami related information and warnings and seismic parametric data.

## Multi-Hazard Warning Systems

**Technological requirements**
- Integrated, multi-platform observations systems require interoperability of system components;
- Standardized protocols and formats for the transmission of data and information;
- Improved data integration for the generation of multi-purpose, user-specific information and warning products

## Many challenges Remain ...

**	****...****t****o ensure that EWS are implemented as an integral part of disaster risk reduction strategies within a multi-hazard framework:**
**Legislative, **
**Financial, **
**Organisational, **
**Technical, **
**Operational, **
**Training and capacity building**
**But......**

**Notes:**
Cultural shift from post-disaster response to preparedness
Legislation – 
Recognition of EWS as an integral part of disaster risk reduction (DRR)
Clear structures for DRR
Clarification of the processes, roles of different players/agencies working in a multi-disciplinary decision making process
Organizational – Incentives to overcome turf issues
Development of a practical framework (flexible, adaptable)
Development and maintenance of multi-hazard observing networks 
Technical– Improvement of forecasts and development of inter-disciplinary approach to EWS (bridging disciplines)
All hazard alert and dissemination mechanisms
Multi-hazard approach to  emergency preparedness and planning

## It is unacceptable that lives, infrastructure and property are lost at a time when the relevant technologies, expertise and capacities are largely available to prevent hydrometeorological hazards including riverine floods, flash floods and storm surges from turning into major disasters. 

**The Train must Move On !**