# Presentation: 375932

## Global aerosol forecasting and data assimilation in GFS/GSI 

** ****Overview, Work Plan and Progress Update**
**Sarah Lu, Ho-Chun Huang, Jeff McQueen, Yu-Tai Hou (NCEP)**
**Mian Chin and Arlindo da Silva (GSFC)**
**4/26/2007 11:39 AM**

***JCSDA Science Workshop, May 1-2, 2007***

## Contributions from..

**NOAA**
- NCEP:
- Steve Lord, Mark Iredell, Shrinivas Moorthi, John Derber, Russ Treadon
- NESDIS:
- Shobha Kondragunta
- NWS:
-  Paula Davidson
- OAR:
- Steve Fine
**JCSDA**
- Paul van Delst, Quanhua Liu, Yong Han, Xu Li
**OAR/EPA**
- Rohit Mathur, Ken Schere

## Aerosol products and applications

| Products
 | Usage |
| --- | --- |
| 4D distribution of aerosol concentrations | Initial and boundary conditions for regional air quality models |
| 4D distribution of aerosol optical properties | Atmospheric corrections for remote sensing of land surfaces and ocean |
| Surface distribution of particulate matter PM | Regional air quality |
| Improved surface, atmospheric, and top-of-atmosphere radiative budget | Climate research |

**Aerosol products and applications**

## OVERVIEW
Create an integrated operational system for forecasting and improved assimilation of atmospheric chemistry
GOAL
Generate an optimal (accurate and affordable) description of the global distribution of atmospheric aerosols
Provide improved air-chemistry forecasts, through improved use of satellite data
APPROACH
Incorporate prognostic aerosols (NASA GOCART) in NCEP GFS/CFS
Off-line non-interactive (EMC AQ project)
In-line interactive (JSDI project)
Assimilate aerosol measurements (radiance) in JCSDA Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system (GSI)
Leverage common modeling framework and shared software development
Earth Systems Modeling Framework (ESMF)
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA)

- Create an integrated operational system for forecasting and improved assimilation of atmospheric chemistry
**GOAL**
- Generate an optimal (accurate and affordable) description of the global distribution of atmospheric aerosols
- Provide improved air-chemistry forecasts, through improved use of satellite data
**APPROACH**
- Incorporate prognostic aerosols (NASA GOCART) in NCEP GFS/CFS
- Off-line non-interactive (EMC AQ project)
- In-line interactive (JSDI project)
- Assimilate aerosol measurements (radiance) in JCSDA Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation system (GSI)
- Leverage common modeling framework and shared software development
- Earth Systems Modeling Framework **(ESMF)**
- Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation** (JCSDA)**

**NCEP global aerosol forecasting ****and data assimilation**** **

## NASA GOCART

- Arlindo da Silva (GMAO)

_***NASA GOCART***_

## Developments and Applications

- Provide GFS/GSI aerosol fields

## Adoption of GOCART modeling component
Modify GFS/CFS radiation module to support GOCART aerosols
Extend GFS tracer capability to include aerosols 
Develop ESMF interface for coupling GFS and GOCART

Utilization of satellite aerosols measurements 
Provide Model-Predicted aerosol field for the develop and implement aerosol module in the CRTM (by the JCSDA/CRTM group, Quanhua Liu et al.)
Develop aerosol assimilation capability in GSI

Integration of global aerosol products in NOAA modeling systems
Couple global aerosol products with GFS/GSI, CMAQ-NAM and SST analysis system
Optimize configuration to fit operational requirements
Limited number of species, coarsen GFS resolution, etc

- Modify GFS/CFS radiation module to support GOCART aerosols
- Extend GFS tracer capability to include aerosols
- Develop ESMF interface for coupling GFS and GOCART
**Utilization of satellite aerosols measurements**** **
- Provide Model-Predicted aerosol field for the develop and implement aerosol module in the CRTM (by the JCSDA/CRTM group, Quanhua Liu et al.)
- Develop aerosol assimilation capability in GSI
**Integration of global aerosol products in NOAA modeling systems**
- Couple global aerosol products with GFS/GSI, CMAQ-NAM and SST analysis system
- Optimize configuration to fit operational requirements
- Limited number of species, coarsen GFS resolution, etc

**An end-to-end work plan**

**Notes:**
These in black are completed tasks during FY06.
These in grey are planned activities for FY07.

## ESMF Component Framework

**Atmosphere**

**ATM**
**Dynamics**

**ATM**
**Physics**

**GOCART**
**GridComp**

**SS**

**SU**

**DU**

**OC/BC**

**Mark Iredell (NCEP)**

**ATM**
**Chemistry**

**Notes:**
This diagram illustrated the overall framework (from Mark Iredell).  The developments of gridded GFS and unified post are currently in progress and are expected to be available mid-late 2007.    Once gridded GFS is available, it will be coupled by GOCART grid component via ESMF coupler.

The coupling between GFS and GOCART will be done via the ESMF coupler rather than include GOCART routine inside GFS.  We discussed the option for ozone chemistry with Steve some time ago (~ Nov 2006).  I recall that we decide (or prefer) to have ozone chemistry coupled with GFS via the coupler as well.   If so, the ATM ozone chemistry will be a stand-alone grid component and theb coupled with GFS via the coupler (similar to GOCART grid component).

## Initial aerosol forecasting system

**GFS/CFS forecast from T0**

**GOCART forecast from T0**

**GOCART forecast from T+**

**GFS/CFS forecast from T+**

**Communication of dynamics info**

**Communication of chemical info**

*Initially chemistry will not interact with meteorology*
*3D couplers not yet built for ESMF (awaiting gridded GFS)*

**Notes:**
This illustrates the prototype GFS-GOCART modeling system.  The communication between dynamics info and chemical info is done through the coupler.

## NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS)
AGCM : GFS
Ocean model: MOM3
CFS experiments
3-year runs (from 2002/01 to 2004/12)
Resolution: T126  L64
Output every 6 hr
Two runs:
Ctr: OPAC-based aerosol climatology (5o x 5o)
Exp: GOCART aerosol fields (2.5o x 2o; 30 lvl)
The global impact and regional influence due to different background aerosol loading are presented.

- AGCM : GFS
- Ocean model: MOM3
**CFS experiments**
- 3-year runs (from 2002/01 to 2004/12)
- Resolution: T126  L64
- Output every 6 hr
- Two runs:
- Ctr: OPAC-based aerosol climatology (5o x 5o)
- Exp: GOCART aerosol fields (2.5o x 2o; 30 lvl)
- The global impact and regional influence due to different background aerosol loading are presented.

**Preliminary CFS results**

## Aerosol effect on HIRS brightness temperature retrieval  

- No clouds
- 0.1 g/m2 OC aerosol at 300 hPa
- 0.1 g/m2 Dust aerosol at 600 hPa
- 0.1 g/m2 Dust aerosol at 650 hPa

- Quanhua Liu et al, JCSDA workshop 2007

## AOD Difference (0.4-0.7 μm)

**AOD Difference (0.4-0.7 μm)**

##  T2m Difference

** ****T2m Difference**

## U-wind Cross Section at 10W

**U-wind Cross Section at 10W**

- The intensity and location of African Easterly Jet are affected by background aerosol loading (via direct radiative effect)

**Notes:**
The impact of aerosols on AEJ has significant impact on hurricane activities.   This slide, from my view, is the key results of the CFS experiments.

## 			Summary

**FY06 activities**
- Restructured GFS to be “GOCART-ready”: modified the radiation module and extended the tracer transport to include additional GOCART aerosol species
- Preliminary impact assessment: Conducted model sensitivity studies to evaluate the impact of different background aerosols on the GFS/CFS.
- Provided a unified approach for treatment to conform CRTM aerosol module with GFS aerosol component (ensure consistent development)
- Initial GFS-GOCART off-line linkages begun
- Additional land-sfc, convection, radiation fields
**FY07 planned activities**
- Prototype GFS-GOCART system
- Benchmark studies of global aerosol simulations
- Assimilate aerosol measurements (radiance) in GSI

## Thank You

## Atmospheric column absorption=

- (net SW )top – (net SW)sfc