# Presentation: 033283

## Customs/Census Bureau Petroleum Imports Data Comparisons to EIA Data*

**Howard Bradsher-Fredrick, **
- _[Howard.Bradsher-Fredrick@eia.doe.gov](mailto:Howard.Bradsher-Fredrick@eia.doe.gov)_
**Energy Information Administration **
**Statistics and Methods Group**
**April 19, 2007**
- ***This is a working document prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in order to solicit advice and comment on statistical matters from the American Statistical Association Committee on Energy Statistics.  **

**Notes:**
Hello – I’m ................................ I’m with the Statistics and Methods group of EIA.  Today I’m going to talk about some work we’ve done comparing U.S. Customs Service petroleum imports data with EIA data.  You see the appropriate disclaimers here at the bottom.  

## Outline of Presentation

**Introduction**
**Overall Goal**
**Short Term Objectives**
**Data/Definitional/Geographical  Comparisons**
**Customs/Census Bureau Imports Data**
**EIA Petroleum Imports Data**
**Data Comparisons**
**Questions for the Committee**

**Notes:**
Here’s the outline of my presentation.  I’ll begin by introducing the subject, then I’ll discuss the overall goal of our work and the short term objectives before I get to the preliminary results we have.  These results involve comparing the geographical coverage from the 2 sources, differences in definitions of the various petroleum products, and finally how the data compare.   The last slide will show the questions for the committee.  

## Introduction

**Limitation of EIA Resources**
**Customs/Census Bureau Petroleum Imports Data Collection**
**Availability of each import transaction**
**Comprehensive data **
**EIA-814 “Monthly Imports Report”**
**Disseminated on the “Petroleum Navigator” web page**
**Comprehensive data**

**Notes:**
I should begin by mentioning that EIA is always on the lookout for ways of saving resources while not reducing data quality.  This is the impetus for this work.  Also, some of EIA’s respondents have made the suggestion that EIA should study the use of Customs data and not ask respondents for what they regard as essentially duplicate data.  
The Customs Service collects data on each import transaction – one record per transaction.  These data are disseminated to subscribers on a monthly basis through the Census Bureau.  Actually, the Census Bureau disseminates a CD-ROM on the 12th of the month following the transactions.   
EIA presently collects petroleum product imports data on its EIA-814 survey form, “Monthly Imports Report.” These data are also very comprehensive.

## Overall Goal

**To determine how Customs Service petroleum import data could be best used by EIA for data quality checking or increasing efficiency of data collections**

**Notes:**
Since EIA has access to this alternative source of data at nominal cost, could this be useful in some way to make our data more accurate, lessen the reporting burden of our respondents or cut overall costs.

## Short Term Objectives

**To determine how to best use Customs Service petroleum import data**
**Compare months of entry**
**Compare definitions**
**Compare geographical coverage**
**Compare some limited historical data**
**Practicality of Customs/Census data usage (e.g., cost, timeliness)**

**Notes:**
In the short term, we’re interested in how to best use the Customs data.  However, we need to begin by comparing months of entry, definitions, geographical coverage, some historical data from the 2 sources, and considering the practicality of using these alternative data (e.g., cost, timeliness, any other considerations)

## Customs Service Data

**One record per transaction **
**Approx. 700/mo. petroleum products out of 45,000/mo. total import transactions**
**Import transactions on separate file from exports**
**Transaction month based upon “entry date” as specified on U.S. Customs Form CF7501, “Entry Summary”**
**Pertinent Fields: product code, country of origin, district of entry, quantity, month of product entry**** **

**Notes:**
The Customs Service data come on a CD-ROM.  In a typical month there are about 45,000 import transactions.  About 700 of these transactions per month involve petroleum products.  There are a total of 67 different petroleum product classifications on the CD-ROM.  By comparison, EIA has 24 product categories.

The disk also contains export data on a separate file.

Read 4th bullet.....

Read 7th bullet....

## EIA Data: Month of Entry

**Entry date, as specified on CF7501, “Entry Summary.”**
**“****Date of withdrawal conditionally free of duty,” on CF7501.**
**“****Import date,” as specified on CF214, “Application for Foreign Trade Zone Admission and/or Status Designation.”**
**“****Date of exportation,” for shipments from Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, etc. to the U.S.**** **

**Notes:**
As I mentioned, the Customs Service requests the designated month to be drawn from the entry date on the entry summary.  EIA allows 4 possibilities as shown to cover various contingencies.  This information comes from the instructions on the EIA-814 form for the respondent to determine the report month.

## Geographical Coverage

**EIA considers an import as a product entering the 50 states or the District. **
**The Customs Service considers an import into Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands as an import (in addition to the 50 states and the District of Columbia)**
**Thus, products entering P.R. or the V.I. are not included in EIA data.**

**Notes:**
Read 3 bullets.

I should point out that all of the numerical data shown for the Customs Service in this presentation have imports into P.R. and V.I. removed so the data should be geographically comparable.

## Definition Comparisons: Customs vs. EIA

**EIA: Based upon intended or actual use of the petroleum product**
**Customs Service: **
**Usually based upon physical and/or chemical properties of the product**
**Sometimes based upon intended or actual usage**
**Definitions typically do not match very well.**
**Some Customs Service intended usage definitions are very narrow. **

**Notes:**
Let’s talk about the comparison of definitions.  

To generalize, EIA’s definitions are based upon the intended or actual use of the product.

On the other hand, the customs service product definitions are usually based upon the physical or chemical properties of the product.  However, in some cases the product definition is based upon the intended or actual usage of the product.  However, the Customs Service intended usage definitions are sometimes very narrow.  

So, this is not a formula for good matches between the 2.

## Example Definition: Customs Service

**13 definitional categories described as “Lubricants.”**
- e.g., Other than light oils and preparations: other than lubricating oils and greases with or without additives, but are mixtures of hydrocarbons not elsewhere specified or included, which contain by weight not over 50% of any single hydrocarbon compound: ***insulating or transformer oils.***

**Notes:**
Here’s a sort of extreme example from the customs service.

There are 13 categories of “lubricants.”  Each has its own definition and product code.  Here’s one of them.  You’ll notice that there’s a chemical criterion shown – a hydrocarbon which contains by weight not over 50% of any single hydrocarbon compound.  But there’s also an intended usage specification in italics – insulating or transformer oils.

## Example Definition: EIA

**1 category of petroleum product named “Lubricants.”**
**Definition:** Substances used to reduce friction between bearing surfaces or as process materials either incorporated into other materials used as processing aids in the manufacture of other products, or used as carriers of other materials.  Petroleum lubricants may be produced either from distillates or residues.  Lubricants include all grades of lubricating oils from spindle oil to cylinder oil and those used in greases.

**Notes:**
On the other hand, EIA has only one petroleum product named “Lubricant.”  It is fairly broad, but includes a specified intended usage.

## Difference in Definitions

**Customs: **
**Special Naphtha: Light oils and preparations -- naphtha (except motor fuel or motor fuel blending stock)**
**EIA:**
**Special Naphtha: Oils with a boiling range equal to or greater than 401 deg. F. which are intended for petrochemical feedstock**

**Notes:**
Read bullets....

Here one can see some basic differences in the definitions that would need to be investigated to determine how different they really are. 

## Data Comparison (January 2005)

| Customs Description | Customs (1,000 bbls) | EIA (1,000 bbls) | EIA Description |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Crude Oil | 310,693 | 309,901 | Crude Oil |
| Fin Mot Gas (Reform.) | 6,398 | 6,929 | Fin Mot Gas (Reform.) |
| Fin Motor Gasoline (unleaded, not ref.) | 8,889 | 8,112 | Fin Motor Gasoline (Conventional) |
| Total Motor Gasoline | 15,288 | 15,041 | Total Motor Gasoline |
| Kerosene-type jet fuel | 3,270 | 3,269 | Kerosene-type jet fuel  |
| Residual (Fuel Oil #5,6) | 16,271 | 14,302 | Residual (Fuel Oil #5,6) |
| Propane, Butane, Propylene, Butylene | 9,917 | 10,169 | Total LPGs |
| Blending Components | 9,491 | 10,512 | Blending Components |
| Tot Petroleum Products | 405,244 | 402,057 | Tot Petroleum Products |

**Notes:**
Now let’s get to some numerical comparisons.

I chose a month arbitrarily.  In this case January 2005 and began looking for products that compared well numerically and in terms of product definitions.

## Data Comparison (Jan-Oct,2005)

| Description | Mean Absolute % Difference  | Mean % Difference (Negative indicates EIA is higher) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Crude Oil | 2.5% | -2.4% |
| Finished Motor Gasoline (reform.) | 29.8% | -26.8% |
| Finished Motor Gasoline (unleaded, not reformulated) | 9.0% | -6.0% |
| Total Motor Gasoline | 13.5% | -13.5% |
| Kerosene-type jet fuel | 50.8% | -50.8% |
| Residual (Fuel Oil #5,6) | 11.7% | +10.9% |
| Propane, Butane, Propylene, Butylene | 15.8% | -9.0% |
| Blending Components | 26.0% | -23.0% |

**Notes:**
You’ll notice here that these small differences in one month disappear over the course of many months.  Crude oil is the only month in which there is a relatively small mean absolute % difference during an extended time period.

## Challenges with Customs Data

**Product classifications in Customs data are sometimes unreliable.**
**Revision processing in Customs data may not be accurate.**
**Customs data do not include a category of “unfinished oils.”**

**Notes:**
1st bullet:  For example, EIA has noted many cases of gasoline (i.e., motor fuel) being reported to Customs as special naphtha (i.e., hydrocarbon solvents).  Of course, Customs does attempt to correct errors in their data.

However, ..... 2nd bullet.
This may be a particular problem with respect to the date.  It is sometimes questionable if Customs applies revisions to the month in which an import actually occurred as opposed to the month in which the revision was processed.  The Customs Service may not be particularly worried about the dates of importation but rather the product classifications and volumes.

The 3rd challenge is that .....3rd bullet.
EIA makes a distinction between products that require further processing versus those that do not.  This distinction is not made by the Customs service.  Thus, residual fuel oils being imported with the intention of further processing by a refinery would be reported to EIA as an “unfinished oil,” while reported to Customs as a residual fuel oil.  This is not a small volume.  In January 2005, EIA shows 12 million bbls of unfinished oil which appears to have been reported to Customs as residual fuel oil. I should mention that there have been discussions with Customs on this issue in the past.

## Other Considerations

**EIA-814 monthly data provide basis for weekly survey frame**
**EIA reports weekly import volumes not available from the Customs Service.**
**Company-level data cannot be identified from Customs Service transaction data.**
**EIA-814 collects data on the volume of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) imports.**

**Notes:**
It should be noted that the monthly data collected by EIA on the 814 survey provide the means for selecting the frame to serve as the basis for the weekly survey.  The weekly survey is a sample rather than a census of importing companies.  Thus, without the company-level data provided by the 814, EIA would need to develop an alternate mechanism for identifying companies to respond to the weekly survey.

3rd bullet. Unlike EIA data..... 

Unlike EIA, Customs transaction data do not provide a means for distinguishing strategic petroleum reserve imports from other imports.

## Imports of Crude Oil

| Month | Strat Petro Rsrv (1000 bbls/day) | Non-SPR      (1,000 bbls/day) | Total Imports (1,000 bbls/day) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2004 Average | 77 | 10,010 | 10,088 |
| 2005 Average | 52 | 10,074 | 10,126 |
| ‘06 January | 0 |   9,713 |   9,713 |
| ’06 February | 14 |   9,883 |   9,897 |
| ’06 March | 140 | 10,102 | 10,242 |
| ’06 April | 33 |   9,799 |   9,832 |
| ’06 May | 23 | 10,224 | 10,247 |
| ’06 June | 0 | 10,681 | 10,681 |
| ’06 July | 0 | 10,153 | 10,153 |
| ’06 August | 0 | 10,537 | 10,537 |
| ’06 September | 0 | 10,703 | 10,703 |
| ’06 October | 0 | 10,132 | 10,132 |
| ’06 November | 0 |   9,837 |   9,837 |
| ’06 December | Not Available | Not Available |   9,445 (est.) |
| 2006 Average | Not Available | Not Available | 10,083 (est.) |

**Notes:**
This shows a section of an EIA data dissemination.  This shows imports of crude oil for recent months.  It shows the strategic petroleum reserve imports and the remaining imports.  You’ll notice the small volumes in the strategic petroleum reserve column, but although these numbers are small they’re probably important to some of our data users.

## Questions for the Committee

**What is the best way for EIA to benefit from data comparisons with the Customs Service? **
**Is there any further research that the committee would recommend on this issue?**