# Presentation: 675822

## Future World Oil Forecast

**Energy Information Administration**

**Petrostocks 2007: New Perspectives**
**January 29, 2007**
**New Orleans, LA**

***Future World Oil Forecast***

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2005 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007*

## U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu)**

**31%**

**32%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030

**U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

**Liquid Fuels**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

## U.S. Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**U.S. Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,**
**1960-2030 (million barrels per day)**

**Consumption**

**Domestic Supply**

**Net Imports**** **

**60%**

**61%**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption by Sector, 1970-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Industrial**

**Transportation**

**Residential and Commercial**

**Electric Power**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Liquid Products Consumption, 1990-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Other**

**Total**

**Distillate**

**Residual**

**Motor Gasoline**

**Jet Fuel**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Ethanol Production, 1981-2030

**(billion gallons)**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**Corn Ethanol**

**Cellulosic Ethanol**

## U.S. Ethanol Consumption as E85 and Blended with

**Motor Gasoline, 1981-2030 (billion gallons)**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**Ethanol Blended into Motor Gasoline**

**Ethanol in E85**

## Average Fuel Economy of U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicles,

**1980-2030 (miles per gallon)**

**Cars**

**All Light-Duty Vehicles**

**Light Trucks**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid, Diesel, and Flex-Fuel Vehicles,

**U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid, Diesel, and Flex-Fuel Vehicles,**
**2005 and 2030 (thousand units)**

- *Only includes hybrids that provide tractive power to the vehicle.

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Crude Oil  Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Lower 48 Onshore**

**Alaska**

**Deepwater Offshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007*

**Total**

**Shallow Water Offshore**

## World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region,1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)

- History

- Projections

**283**

**309**

**347**

**366**

**400**

**421**

**510**

**563**

**613**

**665**

**722**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

##  World Energy Consumption,2003, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

**2003**

**2015**

**2030**

**234**

**186**

**270**

**294**

**309**

**413**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)

**World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980-2030****(quadrillion Btu)**

**Oil**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**33%**

**27%**

**9%**

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**26%**

**5%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

- History

- Projections

**38%**

**24%**

**24%**

**8%**

**6%**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

## World Oil Consumption, 2003-2030(million barrels per day)

**98**

**104**

**118**

**92**

**80**

**111**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

##  World Oil Consumption,2003, 2015, and 2030 (million barrels per day)

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

**2003**

**2015**

**2030**

**49**

**32**

**54**

**45**

**60**

**58**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

## World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2006(billion barrels)

*Oil & Gas Journal*, Vol. 103, No. 47 (December 19, 2005).

**World Total =**
**1,293 Billion Barrels**

##  World Oil Consumption and Production, 2003, 2015, and 2030 (million barrels per day)

**Consumption**

**Production**

**OPEC Conventional**
**Non-OPEC Conventional**
**Unconventional**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

**80.1**

**98.3**

**118.0**

**79.6**

**98.3**

**118.0**

## OPEC, Non-OPEC, and Unconventional Oil Production,1990-2030 (million barrels per day)

**Non-OPEC Conventional**

**OPEC Conventional**

**Unconventional**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

## World Unconventional Liquids Production, 2005 and 2030(million barrels per day)

**2030**

**2005**

*International Energy Outlook 2006*

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2007*****, reference case December 2006, full report ****	****February 2007**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2006*****, June 2006**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**