# Presentation: 453369

## New and Updated Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Products

- John A. Knaff – NESDIS/StAR - RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO
- Alison Krautkramer – NCEP/TPC - NHC, Miami, FL
- Mark DeMaria – NESDIS/StAR - RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO
-  Andrea Schumacher – CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO

## Outline

- Planned updates to the operational CIRA/NESDIS – NCEP AMSU tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithm
- Current algorithm and uses
- Planned updates
- Possible new use
- Schedule
- Plans for a new operational Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTC-SWA) product
- Description of the new product
- 2007 verification (H*Wind, best track wind radii)
- Planned products
- Schedule

- 3-7 March 2008

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

## Current Product

- Uses the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) from NOAA – 15, -16, -18
- Fix or Vmax, MSLP,  & wind radii estimates
- Radial vs. Height cross-sections of pressures, balance winds & temperatures on height surfaces
- Horizontal heights, temperatures, & winds on standard pressure surfaces
- Statistics related to the fix estimate

- 3-7 March 2008

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

## Some Current Uses

- Operational intensity and structure guidance
- Phase space diagrams (Bob Hart, FSU)
- Near surface winds (MTC-SWA, plans for H*wind)
- Examining extratropical transition (Pat Harr)

- 3-7 March 2008

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

## Planned Updates and Demonstrations

- Additional AMSU data
- NASA Aqua
- European Met-Op

- New Utilizations
- MTC-SWA, H*Wind
- Vertical Wind Shear estimates
- Depth of the steering level

- 3-7 March 2008

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

## Example of the 2-d Winds 

- 3-7 March 2008

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

## Estimates of Vertical Wind Shear

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- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

- 2004-2007 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
-  NCEP 6o average
- Versus
-  AMSU 6o average

## Schedule (Time Table)

**May 2008 **– Project starts
- Requested through TPC **Spring 2008 **- NCO to develop BUFR readers (Aqua and Met Op)
**Received** - Get statistical retrieval coefficients from NESDIS
**Summer 2008 **- Coordinate with TPC
**Summer 2008 **- Modify Code to accept Aqua and Met Op data
**Fall/Winter 2008 **– testing with TPC help
**Spring 2009 **- Transition to operations at NCO

- 3-7 March 2008

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

## MTC-SWA Description

- Optimally combines and quality controls satellite-based, near surface wind observations and proxy winds
**AMSU 2-d 850 or 700 hPa winds **(Bessho et al 2006)
**Cloud Drift/Water Vapor/ IR winds **(e.g., Nieman et al., 1997)
**Scatterometery **(QuikSCAT, A-SCAT)
**GOES IR flight-level proxy **(Mueller et al 2006 with a few modifications)
- Creates a low-level wind field analysis (Variational approach, weighted)
- Applies a simple surface reductions over ocean & land which are loosely based on Franklin et al (2003) & Boose et al (2001)

- 3-7 March 2008

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

## Input: Hurricane DEAN 200720 August06 UTC

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- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

## Analysis: Hurricane Dean 200720 August06 UTC

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

- Analysis: Hurricane Dean 200720 August06 UTC

## Verification/Comparison vs. H*Wind

- 3-7 March 2008

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

## Verification/Comparison vs. NHC wind radii

**Wind Radii Errors**

**Detection of Wind Radii**

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- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

- *Climatology from Knaff et al. (2007)
- 107,66,42 nmi for R34,50 & 64

- HKD = (Hit Rate) – (False Alarm Rate)

## Planned Products

- ATCF (JTWC & NHC)
- Analysis Fix (PR; Vmax, RMW, R34, R50, R64, MSLP)
- CIRA/RAMMB Tropical Cyclone Web Site
- Analysis Plots
- Dynamic MSLP estimation
- Flight-level kinetic energy estimation matching Maclay et al. (2008) methodology.

- 3-7 March 2008

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

## Examples

**Dynamical MSLP estimation **

**Kinetic Energy (0-200km)**

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- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

- Flight-level KE Felix (2007)

## Schedule for MTC-SWA

- May 2008 – Project Starts
- Summer 2008 – Run Experimental Product at CIRA & Establish data flow at NESDIS
- Winter 2008  -  Install Software at NESDIS, Verify output , modify algorithm as necessary
- Spring 2009  - Begin running the product at NESDIS
- Winter 2009 – Develop the NESDIS/SSD Web Page, dissemination to ATCF from NESDIS
- Spring 2010 – Finish operational transition

- 3-7 March 2008

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference

## QUESTIONS?

- 3-7 March 2008

- 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricance Conference