# Presentation: 257003

## NCEP/EMC Modeling: Near and Far Term Plans

**NCEP/EMC Modeling: Near and Far Term Plans**

- Geoff.DiMego@noaa.gov
- 301-763-8000 ext7221
- 18 June 2008

**N**
**C**
**E**
**P**

**Where the Nation’s climate and weather services begin**

## T O P I C S

- 2008 Implementation Summary
- Near Term Modeling Plans
- Marine
- Hurricane
- Global
- Mesoscale
- Far Term Modeling Plans
- ESMF based infrastructure
- New Production Suite

## FY08 Implementations

- First Quarter
- Multi-Grid Wave – 12/11/07
- Global GSI Upgrade – Done
- SREF Bias Correction – 12/4/07
- RTMA–AK – 4/15/08
- NAEFS – 12/4/07
- CFS/GODAS – 1/22/08
- Second Quarter
- NAM Bundle – 3/25/08
- Ensembles for Olympics – 2/11/08
- Great Lakes Wave – 3/25/08
- RTMA – HI, PR  4th Quarter
- Downscaled NAM  4th Quarter

- Third Quarter
- RUC  4th Quarter
- GFS Bundle  Postponed
- Fire Wx - On Hold
- GEFS Upgrade  4th Quarter
- Wave Ensemble (6/23/08)
- HWRF – 6/10/08
- Fourth Quarter
- RTMA–Guam  FY09
- NAM  1st Quarter FY09
- SREF  - (9/30/08)
- AQF  - (9/23/08)
- Global Reanalysis

## N

- Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch
**http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov**
- Hendrick Tolman
- Hendrick.Tolman@noaa.gov
- 301-763-8000 ext 7253
**Surface Wave Forecasting**
**Real-time Ocean Analysis and Forecasting**
**                       **
**Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting**

**N**
**C**
**E**
**P**

*WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN*

## WAVEWATCH III

- Great Lakes Wave
- to be driven by NWS NDFD forecast winds instead of NAM winds
- Coupled modeling:
- Parallel testing of coupled wave model as part of HWRF.
- ESMF version of wave model for inclusion in NEMS.
- Joining ensemble with  FNMOC ensemble.
- Beyond 2009:
- Upgrade of all physics  (NOPP projects with ONR and USACE).
- Extension of WAVEWATCH III to coastal zone with specific focus on coupled wave-stormsurge modeling.
- Site-specific WAVEWATCH III to replace local modeling efforts at WFOs and to create a spiral development path for coastal wave modeling.

## WAVEWATCH III

- Still converting to new model code (multi-grid or mosaic approach).
- Need to port data assimilation.
- Need to port Hurricane wave models.
- 2009 implementations on new computer:
- Increase internal spectral model resolution in preparation for new physics.
- Minor increase in model outputs, full use of increase in computational resources.
- Generating model output (GRIB) “on-the-fly” as becomes available
- Presently all model output is produced at the end of the forecast run.

## The multi-grid wave model

**Deep ocean model resolution dictated by GFS model**

**Higher coastal model resolution dictated by model economy**

**Highest model resolution in areas of special interest**

**Hurricane nests moving with storm(s) like GFDL and HWRF**

## Ocean modeling

- RTOFS-Atlantic is the HYCOM-based Real Time Ocean Forecast system for the Atlantic ocean (1/12°, running daily).
- In late 2009 or early 2010, we intend to implement an operational RTOFS-Global model at 1/12°.
- Close cooperation with Navy being developed, Navy support needed until 2011 computer upgrade.
- We may become a national portal for ocean model data from NOAA, Navy and other partners, as a part of a National Ocean Modeling Backbone Capability.

## Ocean modeling

- Focus on coupled modeling:
- HYCOM nested in RTOFS coupled in HWRF, parallel testing in 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season.
- HYCOM is ESMF compliant
- Ice model coupled into global HYCOM / RTOFS-Global.
- Navy ice model available
- NCEP and GLERL ice models under development.
- Bring into NEMS.
- Beyond 2009 working with Navy and NOPP partners on model improvement
- Tides and internal tides.
- Model efficiency.
- Coupling to wave model for better boundary layer physics.

## Naomi Surgi

**Naomi Surgi**
**HWRF Program Leader**

_**Advanced Hurricane Modeling at EMC: The Hurricane WRF (HWRF)**_

**  ****Community based infrastructure **
** ****HWRF began development 2002 (so based on WRF v 2.0****)**
** ****Non-hydrostatic hurricane model**
** ****NMM dynamic core, GFS physics**
** ****Movable,  nested grid**
** ****Became operational in 2007 **
** ****GFDL now runs in parallel**
** ****Coupled air-sea-land prediction system **
** ****Using POM  but will use HYCOM in the future**
** ****Advanced data assimilation for hurricane core **
** ****Making use of airborne doppler radar obs and land based radar**

**Notes:**
Some of the season highlights include
 12 tropical storms of which 8 became hurricanes
 5 major hurricanes, all Category 4...an all-time record
 5 year total of 41 hurricanes...an all-time record
 3 hurricanes (Bret, Floyd, Irene) and 2 tropical storms (Dennis and Harvey) made landfall in the mainland U.S.

## HWRF 

**HWRF **
**Hurricane Wilma**

## Initial (2007) HWRF Configuration

_**Initial (2007) HWRF Configuration**_
**  ****Movable, 2- way nested grid**
** ****9 km/42L movable within 27 km/42L;  **
**~75****o**** X 75****o**** domain**
**  ****GFS & GFDL Physics**
**  ****Advanced vortex initialization**
**  ****Cycled (6 hr) initial state**
**  ****Advancement over GFDL bogus**
** ****Prototype  GSI 3D var (first step)**
**  ****Coupled to Princeton Ocean Model**
** ****loop current initialization**

**HWRF       Dean**
**E-W Cross**

##  2008 HWRF UPGRADES  

** ****MODEL - eliminate noise over topography due to moving nest (reformulate SLP);  remove erroneous residual TKE (now consistent w/GFS physics) **
** ****POM INITIALIZATION**
** ****T&E (as requested by TPC) – ran  ‘08 HWRF from ‘07 GFS  for ****Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Dean **

** ****2008 HWRF UPGRADES **** **

## HWRF Track Error

**Benchmark cases:  Dennis,  Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Dean**

**HWRF ‘08**

**   ****HWRF ‘07**

**HWRF Track Error**

## HWRF Intensity Error

**HWRF’07**

-    **HWRF’08**

**HWRF Intensity Error**

## HWRF SYSTEM 

**High resolution **
**Coastal, Bay & **
**Estuarine **
**hydrodynamic model**

**Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer**

**HYCOM**
**3D ocean circulation**
**model**

**WAVEWATCH III**
**Spectral wave model**

**NOAH LSM**

**NOS**
**land and coastal waters**

**NCEP/****Environmental Modeling Center**
**Atmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land**

**runoff**

**fluxes**

- wave fluxes

-                    wave
-                  spectra

- winds
- air temp.

- SST
- currents

- elevations
-        currents
- 3D   salinities
-         temperatures

- other fluxes

**surge**
**inundation**

- radiative
- fluxes

**HWRF SYSTEM **

**NMM hurricane atmosphere**

**HWRF/multi-model hi-res ensembles (2012) for adv. storm surge model**

## Global Weather &_x000b_Climate Modeling

- Mark Iredell
- mark.iredell@noaa.gov
- 301-763-8000 ext7231

## NCEP/GEFS Major Implementation Plan (FY08/09)

- Upgrade horizontal resolution from T126 to T190 for 20 perturbed forecasts
- 4 cycles per day
- Up to 180 hours
- T126 from 180 hours , up to 384 hours (16 days)
- Using 8th order horizontal diffusion for all leading time forecast
- Extend 16 days forecast to 31 days
- 00Z cycle only
- T126L28 resolution
- User request (for MJO prediction)
- Introduce ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) for GEFS
- Version 3.1.0
- allows concurrent generation of all ensemble members.
- Add stochastic perturbation scheme to account for model errors
- Increasing model spread
- Improving the forecast skills

## NAEFS product upgrade plan (FY08/09)

- NAEFS data exchange
- Add approximately 15-23 new variables to current 51 pgrba for NAEFS data exchange (in discussion)
- Such as vertical shear, helicity, u,v, t, RH for 100, 50hPa, LH, SWR, LWR at surface, and etc..
- Use GRIB2 format for data exchange
- Approximated 45-60m time saving
- New NAEFS downscaling products
- For Alaska region (~6km NDFD grids)
- Surface pressure, T2m, U10m and V10m
- Having new variables for both CONUS and Alaska regions
- Tmax, Tmin, 10m wind direction and speed
- Dedicated line for NCEP and CMC NAEFS data exchange
- DS-3 (sooner?)
- Time saving (high expectation)

## NAEFS Expansion

- Plans to be coordinated with THORPEX
- Links with Phase-2 TIGGE archive and beyond (GIFS)
- Expansion
- FNMOC (join NAEFS pending on th eevaluation)
- Experimental data exchange started from April 2008
- Preliminary evaluation by end of 2008 (1 year evaluation period)
- Operational implementation by 2010 (subject to improved performance)
- ECMWF (use data only)
- Start to collect ECMWF ensemble data from May 2008
- Preliminary evaluation by May of 2009 (1 year evaluation period)
- Operational adding bias corrected ECMWF ensemble to NAEFS (subject to improved performance)
- UK MetOffice
- Decision on going operational & possibly joining NAEFS - by 2008
- KMA, CMA, JMA
- Expressed interest, no detailed plans yet

## NAEFS Future Plans

- NCEP GEFS configurations
- Real-time generation of hind-cast at new GEFS resolution.
- Apply to next computer
- 4 cycles per day
- 4/28 hind-casts for each cycle since 1979 (in discussion)
- Using CFS reanalysis as initial conditions (T382L64 resolution)
- Hydro-meteorological ensemble (River ensemble)
- Coupling ocean-land-atmosphere model for GEFS
- Variable resolutions
- Downscaling products
- Pending on RTMA availability
- Extended variables and regions (Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Guam regions )
- Statistical post-processing
- Enhance current bias correction method (mini-Bayesian, Krzystofowicz, UVA)
- Bias correction for precipitation (jointed with pseudo-precipitation, Schultz ESRL)
- Pending on hind-cast information for first and high moments bias correction
- Full Bayesian
- Apply to all model forecast variables
- Verifications (unified ensemble probabilistic forecast verification)

## GFS & GSI Plans Beyond 1 year

- Semi-Lagrangian
- Increase resolution (vertical & horizontal)
- New cloud & precip microphysics
- Overhaul of turbulence and moist physics
- Continue to work toward 4DVAR
- Continue to add observations
- May require forecast model linearizations

## NCEP POST

- NCEP POST: a unified POST for _ALL_ NCEP atmospheric models
- Generalization of the NAM POST (aka WRF POST).
- Several GFS post algorithms will be included
- GFS definition of relative humidity
- isentropic level output
- dynamic tropopause
- User requested fields added 2007:
- Sigma layer temperature at .90, .85, .80, .75, .70, 3 hourly intervals
- Omega on 500-700 mb layer
- Satellite look-alike product (broadband channel)
- Richardson number & Ellrod index
- Elevated CAPE diagnostic (300-60 pressure difference)
- Diagnostic surface visibility
- Satellite look-alike product (narrower instrument channels)
- User requested fields waiting until at least FY08:
- Simulated radar reflectivity
- Turbulent kinetic energy
- Simulated echo tops
- Model gravity wave diagnostic

## Table of Future GFS Product Efforts

| Product | Requestor | Add or Chg | Suite | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sunshine duration | TIGGE | Add | all |  |
| Wilting point | TIGGE | Add | all |  |
| Field capacity | TIGGE | Add | all |  |
| Freezing level | AWC | Chg | all | Underground use 2m T |
| Roughness | Land | Chg | all | Change units |
| Precip types | HPC | Chg | all | Instantaneous (not avg) |
| Precip types | HPC | Chg | all | Fix sleet in 2 algorithms |
| Dynamical tropopause | Bosart | Chg | all | Correct noise near pole |
| Precip rate | HPC | Add | all | Instantaneous |
| Precip types |  | Add | all | Average |
| sundry fields |  |  | all | Decimal scaling |
| Visibility | AMEC | Add | all | May need to retune algorithm |
| Wind gust | AMEC | Add | all |  |
| 2m dewpoint | AMEC | Add | all |  |
| BUFR sounding | UPS | Add | all |  |
| BUFR sounding | Alaska | Add | all |  |
| BUFR sounding | Reno | Chg | all | Investigate topography |
| Snow phase change |  | Chg |  | Fix algorithm |
| Fractional precip accumulations |  |  |  | 4 precip types’ accumulation |

## Recent Mesoscale Implementations

- WRF-NMM in NAM (31 March 2008)
- SREF System (12 December 2007)
- MMB 2007 Model Review (11 December 2007)
- NCEP HiResWindow Modeling (11 September 2007)
- NAM & GSI Upgrades (19 June 2007)
- NAM / NDAS Bundle (19 December 2006)
- MMB 2006 Production Review (12 December 2006)
- NAM Changes (5 September 2006)
- NAM And DGEX Changes (15 August 2006)
- Operational Implementation of RTMA (6 August 2006)
- NAM Changes (20 June 2006)
- WRF in NAM (7 June 2006)
- RTMA Briefing (9 August 2006)

## HiResWindow WRF Configurations                             (No Parameterized Convection)

|  | WRF-NMM | WRF-ARW |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Horizontal Grid Spacing (km) | 4.0 | 5.1 |
| Vertical Levels | 35
Sigma-Pressure | 35
Sigma |
| PBL/Turbulence | MYJ | YSU |
| Microphysics | Ferrier | WSM3 |
| Land-Surface | NOAH | NOAH |
| Radiation (SW/LW) | GFDL/GFDL | Dudhia/RRTM |

## Pyle Webpage Now Displaying Simulated Reflectivityhttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

- _Pyle Webpage Now Displaying Simulated Reflectivity__http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/_

## NAM Future Plans

- Current machines (dew/mist) 1Q 2009
- Minor model changes, e.g. shallow convection
- Improve GSI
- Retain more of large scales from GFS
- Partial cycling and strong constraint
- Satellite channel bias correction
- Non-linear quality control
- Test new sources of data
- TAMDAR & Canadian AMDAR
- METOP2
- Next machine (providing ~3x dew/mist) 2009-2010
- Parent run is 12 km with all its normal NAM products out to 84 hr
- _Add 4 km nests over CONUS and Alaska_ run to 48 hours only
- Nested fields available ~3 hours earlier than HiResWindow
- 4 km output grids would be additional to existing NAM 12 km suite
- Possible move to new ESMF-based NEMS (NCEP Environmental Modeling Framework)
- NEMS nesting would allow HI + PR nests too but WRF wouldn’t

## Future 4 km Nests Imbedded in  12 km NAM 

## 12 km Terrain                                       4 km Terrain

- Dots represent water points  Domain is San Francisco Bay

**GFS ~35km**

## NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

- Linkage

***Forecast ***
***Uncertainty***

***Minutes***

***Hours***

***Days***

***1 Week***

***2 Week***

***Months***

***Seasons***

***Years***

- NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

- North American Ensemble
- Forecast System

- Climate Forecast System

- Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

- Ocean Model
- Hurricane Models

- Global Forecast System

- North American Mesoscale Forecast

- Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

- Dispersion Models for DHS

- GFDL
- WRF

**NCEP Model Perspective**

- Maritime

- Life & Property

- Space Operations

- Recreation

- Ecosystem

- Environment

- Emergency Mgmt

- Agriculture

- Reservoir Control

- Energy Planning

- Commerce

- Hydropower

- Fire Weather

- Health

- Aviation

## NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite

- WRF NMM/ARW
- Workstation WRF

- WRF: ARW, NMM
- ETA, RSM

- GFS, Canadian Global Model

- Satellites
- 99.9%

_**Regional NAM**_
- WRF NMM

**North American Ensemble Forecast System**

**Hurricane **GFDL
- HWRF

**Global**
**Forecast**
**System**

**Dispersion**
- ARL/HYSPLIT

**Severe Weather**

**Rapid Update**
**for Aviation**

**Climate**
**CFS**

- 1.7B Obs/Day

**Short-Range**
**Ensemble Forecast**

**MOM3**

**NOAH Land Surface Model**

- Coupled

**Global Data**
**Assimilation**

**Oceans**
- HYCOM
- WaveWatch III

- NAM/CMAQ

## NextGen – Next Generation aviation system – multi-agency effort=>2025
Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite 
SREF
NAEFS
Climate Forecast System
Entering the NPOESS era
More rapid access to                                                                                 hyperspectral data
GPS soundings
Higher resolution surface                                                                                radiance data
All models run within ESMF
Models run concurrently 
Hybrid vertical coordinate
Coupled
Spanning all scales
Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications

- Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite
- SREF
- NAEFS
- Climate Forecast System
- Entering the NPOESS era
- More rapid access to                                                                                 hyperspectral data
- GPS soundings
- Higher resolution surface                                                                                radiance data
- All models run within ESMF
- Models run concurrently
- Hybrid vertical coordinate
- Coupled
- Spanning all scales
- Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications

- Forces for Change

|  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
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| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  |  |  |
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|  |  |
| --- | --- |
|  |  |

**Model Region 1**

**Model Region 2**

**Global/Regional Model Domain**

- ESMF-based System

## Downsides of WRF Infrastructure (CMI) & Why NCEP is Moving to ESMF

- WRF CMI: Must take + use all of it
- WRF CMI: Not most efficient
- WRF CMI: Highly complex, deeply layered code not well suited for nearly continuous development & enhancement taking place in the NCEP Operational environment
- ESMF is to be one NOAA infrastructure and basis for NUOPC (tri-agency = NOAA, Air Force and Navy)
- ESMF: Can choose to use only parts it needs & NCEP is choosing to take the minimum
- ESMF-based NEMS: Majority of code is written by NCEP with simplicity & clarity and efficiency as guides
- NEMS = NCEP/NOAA Environmental Modeling System

## ESMFEarth System Modeling Framework

- ESMFEarth System Modeling Framework

- NOAA GFDL**Ants Leetmaa****V. Balaji****Robert  Hallberg****Jeff Anderson**
- NOAA NCEP**Stephen Lord****Mark Iredell****Mike Young****John Derber**
- DOE Los Alamos Nat’l Lab**Phil Jones**
- DOE Argonne Nat’l Lab**Jay Larson****Barry Smith**
- University of Michigan**Quentin Stout**

- NSF NCAR***Tim Killeen, PI*****Byron Boville****Cecelia DeLuca****Roberta Johnson****John Michalakes**
**	****Al Kellie**
- MIT***John Marshall, PI*****Chris Hill**
- NASA GMAO***Arlindo da Silva, PI***
***	******Leonid Zaslavsky***
***     ******Will Sawyer***
**     ****Max Suarez****Michele Rienecker****Christian Keppenne**
**     ****Christa Peters-Lidard**

## Introduction to the Earth System Modeling Framework

**C. DeLuca/NCAR, J. Anderson/NCAR, V. Balaji/GFDL, B. Boville/NCAR, N. Collins/NCAR, ****T. Craig/NCAR, C. Cruz/GSFC, A. da Silva/GSFC, R. Hallberg/GFDL, C. Hill/MIT, M. Iredell/NCEP, ****R. Jacob/ANL, P. Jones/LANL, B. Kauffman/NCAR, J. Larson/ANL, J. Michalakes/NCAR, ****E. Schwab/NCAR, S. Smithline/GFDL, Q. Stout/U Mich, M. Suarez/GSFC, A. Trayanov/GSFC, ****S. Vasquez/NCAR, J. Wolfe/NCAR, W. Yang/NCEP, M. Young/NCEP and L. Zaslavsky/GSFC**

**NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecast**

**NCAR/LANL CCSM**

**NCEP Forecast**

**GFDL FMS Suite**

**MITgcm**

**NASA GSFC PSAS**

***Climate***

***Data ******Assimilation***

***Weather***

## A One NOAA Modeling Framework

- The ultimate target is a completed NOAA Framework of ESMF Components within which NOAA scientists can work efficiently.
- One possible solution is outlined in the next few slides

## ESMF Compliant Component System 

- _ESMF Compliant Component System_

- Couplers

- Dynamics*
- (1,2)

- Physics*
- (1,2,3)

**ESMF Superstructure**
**(component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)**

- ESMF Utilities
- (clock, error handling, etc)

**Application Driver**

- Post processor & Product Generator
- Verification
- Resolution change

- Ocean +/or
- Land-Sfc +/or
- Analysis

**Ensemble membership**
- (component diversity, stochastic forcing, all equally probable)

- 1-1
**1-2**
**1-3**
**2-1**
- 2-2
**2-3**

- Coupler

*** Options 2, 3 etc: institutionally (non-NCEP) supported thru NUOPC or NOAA commitment**

## Coupled NAM / 0-Hr Analysis

**MAIN Program**

**DYNAMICS Gridded Component**
**INIT-RUN-FINALIZE**

- Import State
- Export State

**PHYSICS Gridded Component**
**INIT-RUN-FINALIZE**

- Import State
- Export State

**Dyn-Phys COUPLER Component**
**INIT-RUN-FINALIZE**

- Import State
- Export State

**ANALYSIS Gridded Component**
**INIT-RUN-FINALIZE**

- Import State
- Export State

**ANL-Dyn COUPLER Component**
**INIT-RUN-FINALIZE**

- Import State
- Export State

## NOAA NCEP Future Jigsaw

- Concurrent global and mesoscale and mesoscale ensemble
- Combined global-regional data assimilation
- Support for NextGen
- Enabled by ESMF (NCEP’s NEMS)
- Reforecasts done routinely
- Target 2015+ (subject to availability of funds)

## The Jigsaw Puzzle NCEP Production Suite 

**RUC**

**GFS Anl**

**Hur/HRW**

**GFS Fcst**

**NAM Fcst**

**NAM Anl**

**Waves**

**SREF**

**GENS**

## Current - 2007

**GDAS**

**GFS anal**

**NAM anal**

**CFS**

**RTOFS**

**SREF**

**NAM**

**AQ**

**GFS**

**HUR**

**RDAS**

**Current (2007)**

**GENS/NAEFS**

**Current - 2007**

**NCEP Production Suite**
**Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems**

## NCEP Production Suite

- MFS

**WAV**

**CFS & MFS**

**GENS/NAEFS**

**GFS**

**Next Generation Prototype**
**Phase 4 – 2015+**

**Regional**

**Rap Refresh**

**Global**

**HUR**

**SREF**

**Reforecast**

**Hydro / NIDIS/FF**

**Hydro**

**NAM**

**GRDAS**

**RDAS**

**RTOFS**

**RTOFS**

**AQ**

**NCEP Production Suite**
**Weather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems**

**AQ**

**Computing factor: 81**

-      Added
- Hourly GDAS &
-    RDAS
-      Moved
-  GFS concurrent
-    w/ NAM & SREF
-     Expanded
-  Hurricane
-    capability (hires)
- Reforecast done
-    routinely

## B A C K U P   S L I D E S

## NOAA WAVEWATCH III (NWW3) version 2.22

- NWW3: Global, 1.25x1, 180h, 3-hourly GFS winds, with assimilation and a 10 member ensemble.
- AKW: Alaskan Waters, 0.5x0.25, 180h forecast based on 3h GFS winds.
- WNA and ENP: W. North Atlantic and E. North Pacific, 0.25x0.25, 180h forecast  based on 3h GFS winds.
- NAH and NPH: Hurricane version of WNA and ENP, 0.25x0.25, 126h forecast, 1h GFS+GFDL winds.
- GLW: Great Lakes wave model, 4km, 84h, NAM winds.
- All models: 24 directions, 25 frequencies, 4/day.
- Moving to 36 directions, 50 frequencies in 2009-2010

## NCEP/MMAB Wave Products

- - Global and regional models for Alaskan Waters and _**Western North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific**_ with up to 168 h forecasts, 4 times daily
-   - Hurricane wave model combining global and GFDL model winds (Atlantic & East Pacific)

- - NOAA Wavewatch III operational at FNMOC
- - Recent NWW3 upgrades
-      Propagation
-      Sub-grid islands
-      Data assimilation (improves 0-12 h forecasts)

## Wave ensembles

- Using operational global wave model set up.
- Control + 10 members based on wind speeds from _GFS ensemble_ members _**3/28/2006**_.
- Starting from initial conditions of control (no perturbation).
- 84 hour forecast, four times per day.
- Mean and spread, probability plots and spaghetti diagrams.

## Global Ocean Prediction with HYCOM

**Global Ocean Prediction with HYCOM**

-  Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is a hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure ocean model
- Primitive equation with free surface
- Sub-grid scale parameterizations.
- Vertical and horizontal eddy viscosity and mixing. Diapycnal mixing.
- Tides & river outflow.
- Atmospheric fluxes
-  Goal: to develop and demonstrate real-time, operational, high resolution ocean prediction systems for the Global Oceans and Basins
-   NCEP Partners with
-   University of Miami/RSMAS
-   NRL Stennis, NRL Monterey, FNMOC
-   NOAA PMEL, AOML
-   Los Alamos National Laboratory
-   Others (international, commercial)

**Chesapeake  Bay**

**Notes:**
Figure 2

## 2007 Performance

**2007 I****NTENSITY ERROR**

**2007 Performance**

**GFS**

**HWRF**

**GFDL**

## HWRF Hurricane Dean August 11–22, 2007

**HWRF Hurricane Dean August 11–22, 2007**

## HWRF 126H FORECAST OF HURRICANE DEAN

**HWRF 126H FORECAST OF HURRICANE DEAN**

**CAT5**

**CAT2**

**HWRF forecast both landfall intensities**

## Recent advancements in HWRF

**   ’****07 HWRF had a weak intensity bias  especially at T=0**
**   ****Major progress  made in ’07/’08 towards reducing intensity bias at all forecast times**

## 56%

**56%**

** ****75%**

**60%**

## 2009 Implementation

**Couple to HYCOM**
**Upgrade HWRF initialization**
**Implement sea spray (wind driven)**
**Improve diffusion, sfc. drag (storm size)**
**Gravity Wave drag (to be tested fall’08)  **
**Run WAVEWATCH in parallel**

##           4-D var Rad vel    Reflect + other obs  Adv. 4-D var (+ens)  +

**      ‘****08                 ‘****09**               ‘**10**** ****                 ‘****11****                    ****‘12**

**          ****4-D var**** ****Rad vel****   **** Reflect**** + other obs**** **** ****Adv. 4-D var (+ens)****  +**

**  **

** **

**   ****Advancing  HURRICANE WRF System**

_**Atm. Model  physics upgrades **_** **

**                ****Sea Spray (ESRL),****  ****Enthalpy fluxes, ****LES (URI)****       **
**                                                                ****Microphysics, radiation  **

**           ****Incr. Res:  4-5km/64-100L****    **

** **

**                                                                                         ****Land Sfc  **
**Waves****: surf-zone physics/multi-grid/****moving nest/****currents**
**Ocean:****  4km.    - ****continuous upgrades in  Ocean Data Assimilation **

**  ****SS**

** **_**Model upgrades**_**:**
**                        ****HYCOM****     ****WAVEWATCH   **

**Hi-Res Multi-Model Ensembles **

_**Data Assimilation for Hurricane Core**_
**   **

## Global Branch Implementations

- CFS upgrade
- Move the CFS forecast date from 7-day lag to 1-day lag. Add twice daily T126L64 60-90 day forecast. Clearly improves monthly forecasts.
- GENS minor implementations
- Four independent GENS changes, including new NAEFS products and making products after CMC implementation.
- Adding GFS bias corrected product files at one degree resolution
- Combining bias corrected high resolution forecast (for example: GFS) and NAEFS bias corrected forecast information for best numerical guidance products, 1x1 latitude/longitude resolutions, globally.
- Adding new NAEFS product files from combined NCEP/GEFS (20 members) and CMC/GEFS (20 members, will be implemented by June 2007) for 00UCT, 06UTC, 12UTC and 18UTC cycles, 1*1 latitude/longitude resolution, globally
- Adding new ensemble product files at ~5km resolution for CONUS only, four daily cycles

## Global Ensemble Forecast System (GENS)

- GENS replaces bred modes with ensemble transform method to create perturbed initial conditions (May 2006)
- Now maintaining an 84 member ensemble with 20 16-day forecasts per 6 hour cycle plus the 4 GFS controls (Mar 2007)
- Downscaled to 5 km using RTMA
- North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

## North American Ensemble Forecast System

- Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA
- CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days
- Generates products for
- Intermediate users: forecasters at NCEP, WFOs, academia,
- 	media, private sector, ...
- Specialized users:  hydrologic applications in all three countries
- End users: forecasts for public distribution
- 	in US, Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM)
- Future activities
- Adding products (probabilistic in nature)
- Incorporating ensemble data from
- 	other centers (e.g., FNMOC)
- Unified evaluation/verification procedures

- International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble **products**

*After bias correction*

*Raw ensemble*

*Probabilistic skill extended *
*1-3 days*

## NAEFS Products

**NAEFS basic products – Gridded data**
- Ensemble members – NCEP & MSC
- 50 variables - U,v,t,z,CAPE, precip type, etc.
- Bias corrected ensemble forecasts - 35 variables
- Climate percentile (anomaly) forecasts -19 variables
- Availability through ftp
- Ensemble members currently, rest to be added later
- _[ftp://](ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/)__[ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod](ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/)__[/](ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/)_
**Derived products – Probabilities, etc**
- Generation tools: Use recently developed NAWIPS ensemble software
- 11 functionalities - Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc
- Request list: Assembled from NCEP Service Centers and other users
- 600+ graphical products for  7 domains
- Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA Carib., Africa
- Product availability – in priority order
- Graphics: NCEP Model Web Page, beginning FY07
- NAWIPS grids, beginning FY07
- NDGD grids – planning phase

*After bias correction*

*Bias in raw forecast*

## NCEP’s New Coupled Climate Forecast (CFS) System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction 

**Hua-Lu Pan**
**hualu.pan@noaa.gov **
**Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch**

## The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS)

- 1.	**Atmospheric component**

**Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03)**
**T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical**
**Recent upgrades in model physics**
**Solar radiation (Hou, 1996)**
**cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998)**
**gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995)**
**cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)**

**2.****	****Oceanic component**

**GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) **
**1/3******** in tropics; 1******** in extratropics; 40 layers**
**Quasi-global domain (74********S to 64********N)**
**Free surface**

**3.****	****Coupled model**

**Once-a-day coupling**
**Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology**

## General Implementation Procedures for GFS/GDAS

- Major data assimilation implementation in fall, using 8-month frozen forecast model
- Major forecast model implementation in spring, using 8-month frozen data assimilation
- Separate product change implementation
- Separate ensemble implementation
- Simulate one full year, plus one hurricane season
- Run downstream models as part of parallel
- Involve forecast centers earlier in the process
- Use same scripts for both parallel and operations

## 2009Q3

- Frozen data assimilation system
- except for “emergency” changes
- Coupled; start with CFSRR models
- NEMS
- Tune stratus?
- Positive definite vertical advection
- Orographic datasets
- NSST ocean
- Other parameterizations

## GSI (Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)  

- Concentrates analysis development on a single unified analysis system
- GSI is an evolutionary combination of global (SSI) and regional 3DVAR analysis systems
- Included in NAM in June 2006
- Will add temporal components to GSI that will approach 4DVAR capability but at ~3DVAR expense.

## GSI Analysis Differences Compared to SSI

- Grid point definition of background error
- Use of recursive filters
- More appropriate background errors in the tropics
- Improved code design
- Inclusion of improved balance constraints
- Modified to use hybrid coordinates
- Many future options included but not exercised in this version

## 6 hr Forecast Error Reduced Using GSI – June 2006

- Operations

- GSI Parallel

**SSI – large 6 h fcst error but**
**Smaller error beyond 48 h**

**GSI – well balanced increment**
**Fields lead to small 6 h error**

## Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation

_**GSI Documentation**_
- Wu et al. (MWR, 2002) provide an overview of the theory and development of the original GSI system.  Additional GSI related _[literature](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/treadon/gsi/documents/papers)__ and __[presentations](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/treadon/gsi/documents/presentations)__ are found in the documents folder._
_**Online Training**_
- 1st GSI User Orientation (4-5 January 2005)

## Table of Differences Between NAM/NDAS & GFS/GDAS Possibly Leading to Reduced NAM Performance Relative to GFS

- Table 1.  _**Analysis/Assimilation Differences**_
- Prediction Model (2) & Domain Characteristics (6)
- Assimilation Cycle Characteristics (7)
- GSI Analysis Characteristics (4)
- Observational Differences (17)
- Table 2.  _**Prediction Model Differences (13)**_

## RTMA Alaska: Evaluation Website

- Forecast Downscaled
- to 5km NDFD grid

- 2-m T
- 2-m q
- 10-m wind
-  psfc

- NDFD terrain

- GSI 2DVar

- Analysis
- Uncertainty

- Observations

-    **GRIB2 OUTPUT**
**FILE 1:** T, q, wind,
-    psfc, Td, analysis
-    uncertainty

- AWIPS
- NCDC
- FTP Server
- RTMA Website

_**RTMA Alaska: Evaluation Website**_
- http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/rtma/alaska/

## Downscaled Numerical Guidance

**Serves as 1****st**** guess for RTMA in AK/HI/PR**
- Local NWS offices run “smartinit” code to initially populate their NDFD grids, using 40 km NAM dataset with limited vertical resolution
- EMC now creating NDFD grids using 12 km NAM grids with full vertical resolution
- NCO now running parallels of NAM DNG for CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico
- Process involves interpolating fields to NDFD grids, computing elements, and then downscaling temperatures, dew points, and winds to match hi-res terrain

## NAM DNG Products

- Surface T, Td, u and v wind components
- 3-, 6-, and 12-hour QPF and PoP
- 3- and 6-hr accumulated snowfall
- Cloud cover and visibility
- Surface wind gust
- PBL height, wind speed and direction
- Snow level
- 3- and12-hour max/min sfc temperature and RH
- Weather type (coming soon)

## AVAILABLE  RTMA  PRODUCTS

- 10 meter u,v wind components
- 10 meter wind speed
- 10 meter wind direction
- 2 meter temperature
- 2 meter dew point
- 2 meter specific humidity
- Surface pressure
- analysis error estimates for each of the above

## HiResWindow Fixed-Domain Nested Runs4 km run Configuration

- _FOUR_ routine runs made at the same time every day
- 00Z : ECentral & Hawaii
- 06Z : WCentral & Puerto Rico
- 12Z : ECentral & Hawaii
- 18Z : Alaska & Puerto Rico
- Everyone gets daily high resolution runs _***if & only if***_ hurricane runs are _not_ needed

_**Approved through OSIP Gate 3, to be included in OB8.3 ... now its in OB9**_

## Lessons Learned Working with WRF Common Modeling Infrastructure (CMI)

- The burden of community modeling involvement by any institution can be substantial but is especially so for an operational one like NCEP.
-  Nearly all NMM enhancements must be done or finished by NCEP (the DTC may off-load some of this in the future).
-  Community directions and rate of evolution are not always in sync with operational needs.
-  Operational needs are not high on the priority list of community developers (unless operations can provide a big part of the support which NCEP can’t do).
- Community needs are often (perhaps always) driven by foreign partners and other funding sources.

## National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)

- Participants: NOAA, Navy,  and USAF (Tri-Agency)
- Purpose:
- Investigate establishing NUOPC
- 2015
- Support both Civilian and DOD missions
- Focus
- Improved global forecasts
- Increased probabilistic-based applications
- Goals
- Improved utilization of national resources (Federal and private)
- Accelerated implementation of needed future capabilities
- World’s best global and regional modeling capability

**Notes:**
Concise, formatted display of information   
Exact information may vary by issue, goal, program, appropriation, etc. etc.  PAC adjustment may show different info from operational adjustment
Basic format summarizes important information that support recommendations and/or decisions 
There will be one quad chart for each recommended program adjustment
Include all relevant information

## NUOPCWhat it means to NOAA

- Significant acceleration in mission capability through shared
- Development
- Operations (computing) costs
- Sets stage for accelerated development of probability-based products
- Interagency supported testbed for modeling
- Test-bed for probability-based product development
- Involving user community

## Coordinated R&D, Transition and Operations

- Coordinated R&D effort
- Common model architecture based on common technology requirements.
- Standardized transition process – R&D results used by all three agencies
- Common ensemble system with managed diversity
- Coordinated operations for ensemble prediction, _potentially_ including unified ensemble post processing with a single promulgating agency
- Assumes working within a unified system - unified technology without unifying the use of technology

## Concurrent execution of global and regional forecast models (1)

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**Model Region 1**

**Model Region 2**

**Global/Regional Model Domain**

**ESMF-based Common Modeling Infrastructure**
_**In-core Solution**_
- Single executable for analysis/model, all model domains
- No file writes to (or reads from) disk except for saving output
**Concurrent execution of ensembles**
- Single executable, multiple members
- “On-the-fly” breeding throughout the forecast from all members
**More efficient execution of rapid updating**
- In-core updating for analysis increments
- Regional (CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Caribb. & Puerto Rico)
- Global (if requirements and resources)

**Analysis**

## ESMF Component Framework

## What is an ESMF Component?

- An ESMF Component has 3 methods: initialize, run, finalize
- Methods have a standard interface, including 1 import state and 1 export state
- A component also has an internal state, which contains whatever persistent data the component needs, and which is generally not visible to other components

## Possible Form with Output

**MAIN Program**

**ATM Gridded Component**
**INIT-RUN-FINALIZE**

- Import State
- Export State

**Dyn-Phys COUPLER Component**
**INIT-RUN-FINALIZE**

- Import State
- Export State

**General Output**
**Gridded Component**
**INIT-RUN-FINALIZE**

- Import State
- Export State

**General Output**
**Gridded Component**
**INIT-RUN-FINALIZE**

- Import State
- Export State

## Community-based Development

**Strategy and roles: **
**Focus on **_**single component**_** instead of entire model system**
_**Collaborative**_**, not competitive**
- NCEP/EMC
- Maintains _primary components_ for each part of Production Suite and _for each application_
- Supports ESMF applications in operations
- In collaboration with community
- Integrates new ESMF-based components into operations
- Performs final testing and preparation of upgrades of supported components in operations
_**Collaborators**_
- Provide
- Component upgrades to be tested in operational setting
- Institutional support for their contributed components
- Diversity and expertise complementary to operations
- Work through DTC, JCSDA, CTB, etc.
**Examples of current and potential collaborators**
- OAR/GSD
- Model enhancements
- Aviation applications, including products and physics component
- NASA-(GMAO, HSB)
- Data assimilation (atmosphere, ocean, land)
- Finite-volume (FV) model
- Physics (aerosol, land surface)
- ESMF-based components (e.g. physics)
- NRL
- Aerosol physics and analysis
- ESMF-based model structure (atmosphere, ocean)
- Physics component
- Operational ensemble generation and processing

-  NWS/OHD
-  Land & Hydrological models for
-  Streamflow
-  Flash floods
-  Precipitation analysis
-  NOS
-  Dynamic storm surge
-  Coastal ecosystems
-  Water quality
-  NMFS
-  Fishery ecosystems
-  Universities
-  Specific physics upgrades