# Presentation: 212980

## Performance Evaluation of Emissions Models 

- Models3 Workshop
- Mark Janssen
- Midwest RPO/LADCO

## What emissions models? 

- SMOKE - MCNC
- Sparse matrix fast
- Free - uses Fortran and IOAPI libs
- EMS-2002
- Data openness
- Model code decipherable to outsiders

## How do you evaluate emissions models? 

- Ability to create realistic representation of reality:
- For a specific Chemical Transport Model(CTM)
- CMAQ, CAMX, REMSAD, UAM-IV
- Spatial scale of the CTM(domain, cell size)
- Lumped chemical species mechanisms(CB-IV)
- Temporal scale of the model(Hour Specific)

## What makes it hard?

- Many types of data
- Inventories, landuse, met, speciation, temporal allocation tables, 80+ types
- Inventory quality problems
- Stack parameters, temporal allocation.......
- Parts are not complex,but many parts
- Onroad, Biogenic, Offroad, Point, Area
- Fires, Dust, Ammonia, Electric Generation

## How do you measure Performance?

- Easy to understand and use parts
- Documentation
- Readable, stable code
- Easy execution, installation
- Easy to build new grids, episodes
- Support available(Community or Contractors)
- Hardware Software Requirements

## How do you measure Performance(cont.)?

- Models assist in identification of inventory problems that effect models
- Data formatting problems.
- missing SCC codes
- Supersonic exit velocities
- Models assist in identification of inventory quality problems.
- Inventory for a category is too high/low
- Temporization does not match reality

## Slide 7

## Advance Stack Diagnostics

- Heuristic algorithims/Methods to find problems
- List top 10 ROG and NOX sources
- Out of range for combination of:
- plume concentration of NOX, Stack height/Plume Height, High plume height, etc.
- Source not located in FIPS county identified
- Report of small source “fixed” by model.
- Low effective plume height at Large facility

## Slide 9

## STATE=Tennessee   FACILITY TOTAL NOX TONS=242.46842577 Facility Name=TVA CUMBERLAND STEAM PLANT    Facility ID=0011    COUNTY NAME=Stewart

               County Stack   Height Diameter    Temp  Velocity   Flow Rate   Device   Process           Emissions   Hourly  Day OF Week
     Obs           ID ID      (feet)  (feet)   deg. F    ft/sec     scf/min ID(BOILER) ID(FUEL)   scc     Tons/Day Profile #  Profile #

    5632          161 001    1000.00  31.0000   273.0     98.40    16666.00   1         22      10100202  166.491      24         7     
    5633          161 001    1000.00  31.0000   273.0     98.40    16666.00   1         51      10100501    0.080      24         7     
    5634          161 001    1000.00  31.0000   273.0     98.40    16666.00   2         22      10100202   75.867      24         7     
    5635          161 001    1000.00  31.0000   273.0     98.40    16666.00   2         51      10100501    0.030      24         7     

-                County Stack   Height Diameter    Temp  Velocity   Flow Rate   Device   Process           Emissions   Hourly  Day OF Week
-      Obs           ID ID      (feet)  (feet)   deg. F    ft/sec     scf/min ID(BOILER) ID(FUEL)   scc     Tons/Day Profile #  Profile #
-     5632          161 001    1000.00  31.0000   273.0     98.40    16666.00   1         22      10100202  166.491      24         7
-     5633          161 001    1000.00  31.0000   273.0     98.40    16666.00   1         51      10100501    0.080      24         7
-     5634          161 001    1000.00  31.0000   273.0     98.40    16666.00   2         22      10100202   75.867      24         7
-     5635          161 001    1000.00  31.0000   273.0     98.40    16666.00   2         51      10100501    0.030      24         7

- Big NOX Report

## Slide 11

## Slide 12

## Slide 13

## Slide 14

## Slide 15

## Tier Reporting

- Tier1: Direct Loss of emissions:  Missing State, County ID, Facility ID, Invalid SCC code, Duplicate keys in 2 records, Invalid Pollutant ID
- Tier2: Could lose emission: Bad Coordinate, Missing Facility ID in Emission record, Bad Area source SCC

## Tier Reporting

- Tier3: Results in System Default: Duplicate SCC codes in Process file, Missing UTM Coordinates in stack file: Stack ID missing in emission file.
- Tier4: Non critical: Invalid SIC code,  Stack Parameters out of range on small source

## How an emissions modeler spends their time. 

## Processing speed and Disk I/O not relevant

## Problems with Current Emissions Models

- EMS-2002 requires
- SAS License($1,800 states/EPA, $19K others)
- Developers(LADCO, WI, Alpine Geophysics)
- SMOKE
- Sparse Matrix, difficult to decipher
- Complex new QA, exporting Difficult
- Developers(MCNC,UCR, EPA)

## Rethinking Open Emissions Models

- New models must build on strengths of old models
- Code Open, Use GPL SQL software
- Readable, Programmable, Exportable, ODBC
- Free, Run on Linux Clusters
- Data transparency
- Build many ad-hoc reporting tools
- Community development sharing of tools
- Community Built
- Community is not: We all pitch in money to one pot for one contractor.

## Attributes of Early Open Emissions Models. 

- Shell scripts to run many days(No UI)
- Robust inventory problem identification and repair(See EMS tier reporting + advanced stack diagnostics)
- Data Transparency, Call up a dataset in a window(Allow query of 	dataset with complex Boolean query)
- Works with CMAQ and PM-CAMX, REMSAD
- Strong couple with MM5.

## UCR/LADCO Open Emissions Model White Paper

- Define Core structure of Model
- Which SQL Product
- What Interfaces
- Incremental development
- Early: Fires,Speciation, Dust, NH3
- Later: Point, Area, Mobile, Biogenic
- Development by a true Community
- LADCO, UCR, WI, MI, Alpine Geophysics, Others ?
- Learn from “Cathedral And The Bazaar.”