# Presentation: 172308

## Analysis Framework

**Analysis Framework**
**_______________________________**
**December 2002**
**Association for Fire Ecology Conference**
**San Diego, California**
**________________________________**
**Anne Birkholz**
**SSGIC Program Manager**

## SSGIC Analysis Framework

**SSGIC Analysis Framework**

**Hazard - ***FLAMMAP*

**Hazard/Risk/Value Integration Index**

**Risk - ***FOA*

**Project Level Planning/Analysis**

**Asset Analyzer**

## SSGIC Analysis Framework

**SSGIC Analysis Framework**

**Hazard - ***FLAMMAP*

**Hazard/Risk/Value Integration Index**

**Risk - ***FOA*

**Project Level Planning/Analysis**

**Values**

**Social/Economic**

**Ecological - ***FRID*

**Asset Analyzer**

## FOA

**FOA**

**Goal:**** Distribute ignition point data across the landscape to identify areas with similar probabilities of ignitions.**

**Source Data:**** 1981 - 2000 Ignition Data - 8000+ fire starts.**

**Fire Occurrence Areas**

## Ignition Point Source Data

## FOA Classes 

- FOA Classes

- Ignitions per 1000 acres per year

- 0.001 - 0.1

## SSGIC Analysis Framework

**SSGIC Analysis Framework**

**Hazard/Risk/Value Integration Index**

**Risk - ***FOA*

**Project Level Planning/Analysis**

**Values**

**Social/Economic**

**Ecological - *****FRID***

**Asset Analyzer**

**Hazard - ***FLAMMAP*

## FLAMMAP

**FLAMMAP**

- Goal: Measure fire “Hazard” or predict fire behavior across the landscape.

## Required Spatial Datasets

**Inputs for every cell calculation**

- Slope

- Elevation

- Aspect

- Canopy Cover

- Fuel Code

- w/ weather dependent fuel moisture data

## Outputs Generated:

**Flame Length (FML)**
- Crown Fire Activity (CFR)
- Rate of Spread (ROS)

**11+ feet**

**8 -11 feet**

** ****4 - 8 feet**

**0 - 4 feet**

**Flame Length - Extreme Weather**

## Outputs Generated:

- Flame Length (FML)
**Crown Fire Activity (CFR)**
- Rate of Spread (ROS)

**Passive**

**Active**

**Surface**

**Crown Fire Activity - Extreme Weather**

## Outputs Generated:

**Southern Sierra Geographic Information Cooperative**

- Flame Length (FML)
- Crown Fire Activity (CFR)
**Rate of Spread (ROS)**

**Rate of Spread - Extreme Weather**

**2 - 3**

**1**

**0 Ch/Hr**

**9 - 14**

**15 - 19**

**20 - 24**

**25 - 29**

**30-39**

**40+**

**4 - 8**

## SSGIC Analysis Framework

**SSGIC Analysis Framework**

**Hazard - *****FLAMMAP***

**Hazard/Risk/Value Integration Index**

**Risk - ***FOA*

**Project Level Planning/Analysis**

**Values**

**Social/Economic**

**Ecological - FRID**

**Asset Analyzer**

## FRID

**FRID**

**Goal:**** ****Categorizes areas based on the deviation from pre-Euroamerican settlement fire regimes.**

**Fire Return Interval Departure**

**Historic Fire Perimeters - approx. 1900+**

**Historic Fire Return Intervals (FRI) for each WHR veg type.**

## Fire Return Intervals

## Level of Confidence in FRI values

**Southern Sierra Geographic Information Cooperative**

**FRI Confidence**

**Level of Confidence in FRI values**

**Good**

**Poor**

**Very Poor**

**Estimate**

## Fire Return Interval Departure

**Southern Sierra Geographic Information Cooperative**

**Fire Return Interval Departure**

**FRID**

**5 - 16 FRI’s (Ext)**

**0 (Low)**

**2 - 4.9 (High)**

**0.1 - 1.9 (Mod)**

## SSGIC Analysis Framework

**SSGIC Analysis Framework**

**Hazard - *****FLAMMAP***

**Hazard/Risk/Value Integration Index**

**Risk - ***FOA*

**Project Level Planning/Analysis**

**Values**

**Social/Economic**

**Ecological - FRID**

**Asset Analyzer**

## Social/Economic Values

**Social/Economic Values**

**Goal:**** ****Identify and evaluate the social and cultural assets present in the analysis area.**

## SSGIC Developed Datasets

**SSGIC Developed Datasets**

**Hydroelectric Power**
**Water Supply**
**Water Storage**
**Structures**
**Threatened Wildland Urban Interface (WUI)**
**Sequoia Groves**
**Range Value**
**Soil Erosion Potential**

## SSGIC Analysis Framework

**SSGIC Analysis Framework**

**Hazard - *****FLAMMAP***

**Hazard/Risk/Value Integration Index**

**Risk - ***FOA*

**Project Level Planning/Analysis**

**Values**

**Social/Economic**

**Ecological - FRID**

**Asset Analyzer**

## Asset Analyzer

**Asset Analyzer**

**Developed as an ArcView 3.2 Extension requiring Spatial Analyst**

**Decision Making Application Software**

**Source data formatted as normalized raster data with values between 0 and 100**

## Asset Analyzer Application &  Scenario Development

**Southern Sierra Geographic Information Cooperative**

**Asset Analyzer Application &  Scenario Development**

## SSGIC Analysis Framework

**SSGIC Analysis Framework**

**Hazard - *****FLAMMAP***

**Hazard/Risk/Value Integration Index**

**Risk - ***FOA*

**Project Level Planning/Analysis**

**Hazard/Risk Integration -****       **

***WFSI***

**Values**

**Social/Economic**

**Ecological - *****FRID***

**Asset Analyzer**

## WFSI

**WFSI**

**Wildland Fire Susceptibility Index**

**GOAL:**** Integrate the FOA (Risk) Probability of Ignition with FlamMap Rate of Spread (Hazard) to ordinate the landscape by the “Susceptibility to Burning”.**

## Step 1

**“****Probability of**
** ****Burning” **
** ****for each cell**

**Step 1**

**Likelihood of Ignition - **
**FOA Ignition Density **

## Step 2 

**“****Probability of**
** ****Burning” **
** ****for each cell**

**FOA Ignition Density – **
**Calculate Actual **
**Ignitions in each FOA Class**

**Assign Spread Component to each Ignition by linking to daily Weather Data **

**Step 2 **

## Step 3 

**“****Probability of**
** ****Burning” **
** ****for each cell**

**FOA Ignition Density – **
**Calculate Actual **
**Ignitions in each FOA Class**

**Assign Spread Component to each Ignition by linking to daily Weather Data**

**Calculate Rate of Spread (ROS) -  predicted by FLAMMAP model**

**Step 3 **

## Step 4 

**“****Probability of**
** ****Burning” **
** ****for each cell**

**FOA Ignition Density – **
**Calculate Actual **
**Ignitions in each FOA Class**

**Assign Spread Component to each Ignition by linking to daily Weather Data**

**Calculate Rate of Spread (ROS) -  predicted by FLAMMAP model**

**Step 4 **

**Develop local regression equations relating ROS to Final Fire Size**

## Step 5 

**“****Probability of**
** ****Burning” **
** ****for each cell**

**FOA Ignition Density – **
**Calculate Actual **
**Ignitions in each FOA Class**

**Assign Spread Component to each Ignition by linking to daily Weather Data**

**Calculate Rate of Spread (ROS) -  predicted by FLAMMAP model**

**Step 5 **

**Develop local regression equations relating ROS to Final Fire Size**

**Apply regression equations to calculate FFS from ROS**

## Step 6 

**“****Probability of**
** ****Burning” **
** ****for each cell**

**FOA Ignition Density – **
**Calculate Actual **
**Ignitions in each FOA Class**

**Assign Spread Component to each Ignition by linking to daily Weather Data**

**Calculate Rate of Spread (ROS) -  predicted by FLAMMAP model**

**Step 6 **

**Develop local regression equations relating ROS to Final Fire Size**

**Apply regression equations to calculate FFS from ROS**

**Calculate WFSI from data in steps 1-5**

## Wildland Fire Susceptibility Index

**Southern Sierra Geographic Information Cooperative**

**Wildland Fire Susceptibility Index**

**0 (Low)**

**WFSI **

**9 (High)**

**1**

**2**

**3**

**4**

**5**

**6**

**7**

**8**

## SSGIC Analysis Framework

**SSGIC Analysis Framework**

**Hazard - *****FLAMMAP***

**Hazard/Risk/Value Integration Index**

**Risk - ***FOA*

**Project Level Planning/Analysis**

**Values**

**Social/Economic**

**Ecological - *****FRID***

**Asset**** ****Analyzer**

## Final Integration Process

**Southern Sierra Geographic Information Cooperative**

**Final Integration Process**

**1) Review available data and analyses and select driving datasets.**

**3) Select a preferred alternative.**

**2) Develop 10 landscape level alternatives based on these datasets and analyze.**

## Final Integration Process

**Alternative Two**

**Southern Sierra Geographic Information Cooperative**

**Final Integration Process**

**1) Review available data and analyses and select driving datasets.**

**3) Select a preferred alternative.**

**2) Develop 10 landscape level alternatives based on these datasets and analyze.**

**4) Identify “strategic zones” for project level analysis.**

**5) Capture  “decision rules” effectively implemented in identifying strategic zones.**

**6) Next:**** Automate process to implement decision rules.**

**Strategic Zones**

## SSGIC Analysis Framework

**SSGIC Analysis Framework**

**Hazard - *****FLAMMAP***

**Hazard/Risk/Value Integration Index**

**Risk - ***FOA*

**Project Level Planning/Analysis**

**Values**

**Social/Economic**

**Ecological - *****FRID***

**Asset Analyzer**

## Thank You!

**Thank You!**