# Presentation: 770354

## PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTAT AMERICAN AIRLINES

- Warren Qualley
- Manager- Weather Services
- AAWS website: http://rampages.onramp.net/~aametro/

## PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTAT AMERICAN AIRLINES

- Procedural
- Products for flight crews, dispatchers, airport personnel, planning managers
- Programmatical
- Products for flight plans, input into programs on dispatcher desks
- WeatherBrowser
- Project Hub-CAPS

## Why OU and WhyHub-CAPS ???

- 4/29/95 hailstorm at DFW
- AA operating philosophy
- Lack of any storm-scale NWP
- Long lead time for gov’t R&D

## $1 M, 3-year R&D partnership between OU and American Airlines (1 July 1996to 30 June 1999)
Goals:
to demonstrate the practicability of storm-scale numericalweather prediction for commercial aviation
to customize and integrate the CAPS forecast system into AA operations
to end with a usable system that can be run daily for or by American Airlines

- Goals:
- to demonstrate the practicability of storm-scale numericalweather prediction for commercial aviation
- to customize and integrate the CAPS forecast system into AA operations
- to end with a usable system that can be run daily for or by American Airlines

- Project Hub-CAPS

** ****AA Weather **
**Services**

** ****U.S. National **
**Weather Service**

** ****Private sector **
**weather **
**companies **
**(re-packaging)**

**N**** ****ational-scale products**

**N**** ****ational-**
**scale products**

**Value**** ****-**** ****adde**** ****d**
** ****products**

** ****U.S. National **
**Weather Service**

** ****Private sector **
**weather **
**companies **
**(re-packaging)**

** ****AA flight **
**operations**

** ****AA flight **
**operations**

** ****AA Weather **
**Services**

** ****AA Weather **
**Services**

## Project History and Overview of the Technology

- _Numerical Weather Prediction_:
- The use of computer models to
- predict the future state of the
- atmosphere

## The $1M Question:  Can We Predict These Events Explicitly and Reliably Using Computer Models?

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## Present NWS Operations

- One-size-fits-all forecasts over entire continent;
- Forecast model schedule fixed;
- Forecast location fixed;
- Models cannot resolve individual thunderstorms;
- Models provideonly standardproducts;

## High-Impact Weather is LOCAL

**Severe**
**Thunderstorms**

**Fog**

**Rain and**
**Snow**

**Rain and**
**Snow**

**Intense**
**Turbulence**

**Snow and**
**Freezing Rain**

## The Strategy - The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS)

**20 km CONUS Ensembles**

-   Focus on large    and small scales    simultaneously
-   Run model when    and where     needed
-   Run model in    desired    configuration
-   Customized     to meet needs

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## The Devastating 29 April 1995 Hailstorm

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## Philosophy of Project

- Involve AA personnel in the development of the system
- in order for it to meet their needs
- in order for the operational forecasters to take pride in ownership
- Respond quickly to problems and new ideas (rapid prototyping)
- Leverage AA money against State and Federal sources
- More than R&D
- training and education
- internships and guest lectures
- special projects (TAF verifier, accident/incident investigations)

## Evaluation of Forecasts

- Model showed significant skill in both cold-season and warm-season situations
- Nevertheless, the forecasts were too inconsistent to be trusted on a regular basis
- Surface physics problems and lack of satellite data in initial conditions created overly warm surface temperatures
- Model was slow to spin-up convection (no radar data)
- Small domain size led to strong influence by lateral boundaries
- Model tended to be conservative (good feature)
- Forecasts not timely enough

## Year-2 Hourly Analysis Domains

**D/FW Region**

**NE Corridor**

**ORD Region**

**Central/Eastern US**

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## Sample ARPSView Products

**Downburst Potential**

**Surface Isotachs &**
**Streamlines**

**CAPE & Helicity**

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## User Comments

- “We at the Fort Worth ARTCC Center Weather Service Unit have been using your Hub-CAPS site for some time now, and we find it to be one of the best forecast tools for the D/FW area”
- Tom Hicks, Meteorologist-in-Charge, Center Weather Services Unit, Fort Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center
- “We live and die by your web page”
- Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, WGN TV-9, Chicago

## Web Activity

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## A Controversial Forecast

- NWS zone and TAF forecasts, and AAWS forecasts, missed squall line
- Hub-CAPS caught the event, but reliability was still an issue so the forecast was not believed (this is sometimes true for NWS models)
- Hub-CAPS forecast used data that didn’t get into the NWS models

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## KFWS 01Z on 5 June 1998

**KFWS 01Z on 5 June 1998**

**12 h ARPS Forecast**

**7 h ARPS Forecast**

**1 h ARPS Forecast**

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## Storm-Scale Prediction is Hard!

**KFWS 01Z on 5 June 1998**

**5 h, 9 km ARPS Forecast**

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## How Good Are the Forecasts?

**D/FW Airport**

**A perfectly predicted storm having a position error **
**of 30 miles may be a terrible forecast on the scale **
**of a single airport**

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## How Good Are the Forecasts?

**This same forecast would, on a larger scale,**
**be viewed as exceptionally accurate**

## With 80% frequency, Hub-CAPS correctly predicts thunderstorms to within 20 miles of their actual position 4 hours ahead of time
If thunderstorms are within 50 miles of the airport, Hub-CAPS correctly predicts their location 
50% of the time 6 hours in advance
70% of the time 4 hours in advance
90% of the time 2 hours in advance

- If thunderstorms are within 50 miles of the airport, Hub-CAPS correctly predicts their location
- 50% of the time 6 hours in advance
- 70% of the time 4 hours in advance
- 90% of the time 2 hours in advance

- Sample Desired Information

## The Hub-CAPS System Today

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## The Hub-CAPS System Today

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## Sample ARPSView Products

**Hourly Station Model Plots for 10 Regions in US **

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## Real Time Prediction/Analysis Domains (http://caps.ou.edu/wx)

**Courtesy of the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS)**

## Conclusions

- Hub-CAPS has saved $$$ for AA
- Program fast-tracked to ops
- R&D concurrent- ops feedback
- Link to on-going Met research