# Presentation: 712192

## Director’s Updateof theNational Centers for Environmental Prediction

- COPC Meeting
- Naval Oceanography Center
-  Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
- November 20-21, 2002
- Dr. Louis Uccellini
- NCEP Director
*“**Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”*

## Overview

- NCEP Contribution to Homeland Security
- Infrastructure Activities
- NCEP 2002 Implementations
- NCEP 2002 Real Time Test and Evaluation
- NCEP Planned 2003 Implementations
- Volcanic Ash Model Backup
- JCSDA News
- WRF News
- Appendices

## NCEP’s Contribution to Homeland Security

- Currently, NCEP is providing the following:
-     - HYSPLIT model running off 12 km Eta model       November 2001
-     - On demand ARL HYSPLIT model run using 4 km NCEP Nonhydrostatic Meso Model (NMM)  25 June 2002
- 4 km NMM model can be run over any one of 26 predefined regions covering CONUS, AK, HI, and PR.

## 4 km NMM Domains

## Infrastructure Activities

- New NCEP supercomputer contract has been awarded to IBM and has been installed at IBM’s facility in Gaithersburg, MD and is scheduled to be operational no later then 1 July 2003
- Backup NCEP supercomputer site recommendation to senior NOAA management planned for mid December 2002 – backup computer funding awaits congressional action on FY03 budget
- Backup NCF in Fairmont, W. VA - October 2002 tests have started
- Backup NWSTG in Mt. Weather, VA – September  2004

## NCEP 2002 Implementations

- _Global Forecast System_
- AVN and MRF models runs have been renamed the “Global Forecast System” (GFS)
- Length of 4 per day GFS runs increased to 384 Hours - 5 March 2002
- MRF run discontinued and replaced with the extended 00 UTC GFS - 23 April 2002

## NCEP 2002 Implementations(cont.)

- _Global Forecast System_
- Resolution increase from T170L42 (75km) to T254L64 (55 km) – 29 October 2002
- Resolution steps down in later forecast hours

| Forecast Hour | New | Old |
| --- | --- | --- |
| F000 - F084 | T254L64 | T170L42 |
| F087 - F180 | T170L42 | T170L42 |
| F192 – F384 | T126L28 | T62L28 |

## Slide 8

## NCEP 2002 Implementations (cont.)

- _Mesoscale Models_
- RUC model resolution increase from 40 km / 40 levels to 20 km / 50 levels - 16 April 2002
- RSAS resolution upgrade from 60 km to 15 km  11 June 2002

**Notes:**
RSAS – RUC Surface Analysis System
Eta 3DVAR to include 88D radial wind data
SREF – Short range Regional Ensemble Forecast

## NCEP 2002 Implementations (cont.)

- _Ocean Models_
- Eastern North Pacific regional wave model - 30 April 2002
-              _GFDL Hurricane Model_
- Upgrade from a three grid system (1 deg x 1/3 deg x 1/6 deg) to a larger two grid system (1⁄2 deg x 1/6 deg) – 21 May 2002

## Wave Watch III Eastern North Pacific Domain

- .25 x .25 deg domain implemented April 30, 2002.
- Able to resolve all coastal stations and buoys
- Hurricane version to be implemented for ’03 season

## NCEP 2002Real Time Test and Evaluation

- _Mesoscale Models_
- SREF – 5 Eta members with Kain-Fritsch physics – June 2002
-       (Note 5 Eta and 5 RSM members operational since 1 September 2001)
- 8 km Nonhydrostatic mesoscale model
-         17 July 2002

**Notes:**
RSAS – RUC Surface Analysis System
Eta 3DVAR to include 88D radial wind data
SREF – Short range Regional Ensemble Forecast

## NCEP 2003 Planned Implementations

- Eta physics package and 3DVAR upgrade – Spring 2003
- Eastern Pacific hurricane wave model – Spring 2003
- 8 km nonhydrostatic mesoscale model within WRF infrastructure and coding standards by Summer 2003

## NCEP 2003 Planned Implementations (cont.)

- Wave Model
-     – Extend to 7 days with 4 runs per day
-        Fall 2003
- Global Ensembles
-     – 4 per day 10 members T126 for 7.5 days T62 from 7.5 days to end
-       Fall 2003
- Global Forecast System (GFS)
-     – Coupled model for sea surface temps – Summer 2003
-       – Hourly meteograms out to 36 hours– Spring 2003
-       – Hourly Long wave radiation package – Fall  2003

## Volcanic Ash Model Backup

- For backup to the VAFTAD model, the NWSTG can now post the AFWA PUFF model graphics
-     -   NCEP supplied commercial graphic package to
-         AFWA.  This package converts graphics to
-         NWSTG usable form
-      -   All requested changes to graphic output have
-         been made
- NCEP, NESDIS and AFWA  MOA is being finalized

## Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilationcreated July 2, 2001

- Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilationcreated July 2, 2001

- Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models
- Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from the advanced satellite sensors
- Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure
- Develop common fast radiative transfer system
- Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather and climate predictions
- Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new satellite technology from two years to one

- Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational numerical prediction models

**Goals:**

## JCSDA Partners

**Notes:**
This chart further shows the member institutes. Note that two new agencies are now members of the Joint Center. Yeah! Welcome on board!

## Organizational Structure 

**NASA & NOAA**

**Joint Oversight Board**
**Directors of:**
- NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini(Chair)
- Goddard ESD: F. Einaudi
- NOAA ORA: M. Colton
- NOAA OWAQR: D. Rogers
- Navy: R. McCoy, R. Hillyer
- USAF: M. Farrar

**Joint Center Staff**
- Center Director: Stephen Lord (Acting)
- Executive Directors: Fuzhong Weng – NESDIS,
- L.-P. Riishojgaard - NASA
- Technical Liaisons:
- DAO – R. Dee
- EMC – J. Derber
- NSIPP – M. Rienecker
- OWAQR – A. Gasiewski
- ORA – D. Tarpley
- Navy – Nancy Baker
- Contractor Support:  George Ohring (NESDIS)
- Secretary

**Advisory**
**Panel**

**Rotating Chair**
**Between NASA, NOAA**

**Science**
**Steering**
**Committee**

**Notes:**
Joint Center’s organizational structure  initially include an oversight board that consists of the directors from the participating agencies,  and center staff that consists of Directors and Technical Liaisons. Oversight board works directly with the advisory panel while the Center staff get more suggestions and feedbacks from SSC. The responsibilities of each component of Jt center are well defined in the program plan. 

In particular,

SSC will be responsible for reviewing the proposals, chairing the JC workshop, and assessing the results from funded proposals and making recommendations to the directors if the proposals are continued, finished or must be terminated. 

The roles of these Tls are important. They help exchanging information, and make sure there are no redundant works among member institutes.  

## JCSDA Recent Accomplishments

- Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models
- Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002)
- Operational implementation (October, 2002)
- New Data used in NCEP operational models
- SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates
- SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water
- GOES-10 IR radiances
- QuikSCAT data
- Preparation for AIRS
- Computer installed at NASA to deliver data within 180 minutes of ingest
- Fast radiative model developed, documented, delivered, undergoing testing
- One day GDAS test of AIRS data done in September 2002
- Start automated processing AIRS data in November 2002
- “Foundation” Science Issues and Priorities agreed to: Basis for AO

##   ...

- Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)

- Framework of Where NCEP is Headed:
- FY2005 and Beyond

- JCSDA
- (distributed)
- Global
- “Test Bed”
-  will be
- needed
- Probable
- Boulder
- “Test Bed”

-   ...

## WRF MOA established and is being signed by all parties.
Made available 30-day retrospective data sets (BUFR & GRIB) suitable for WRF testing.
Adapted (with NSSL) NCEP operational NMM postprocessor to WRF standards, issued code and users’ guide.

- Made available 30-day retrospective data sets (BUFR & GRIB) suitable for WRF testing.
- Adapted (with NSSL) NCEP operational NMM postprocessor to WRF standards, issued code and users’ guide.

- WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002

## WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002

- Converted Eta & NMM dynamics and all physics modules to WRF coding standards.
- Ensured all converted code reproduced NCEP control version results (VERY IMPORTANT).
- Final step to wrap NMM under WRF modeling infrastructure underway - implementation scheduled for 4Q FY2003.
- Made EMC’s grid-to-obs verification codes available with users’ guide.
- Unification (with AFWA) of Land-Surface Model in WRF framework nearing completion.

## WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002

- NCEP led WG#4 developed beta version of WRF 3DVAR for testing (nearly ready for release)
- NCEP led WG#9 is proactive in setting needs for testing and infrastructure efficiencies.
- NCEP led WG#12 establishes NCEP’s prepared BUFR observation set for use in WRF 3DVAR and in WRF verification using NCEP’s code.
- Duane Stevens (University of Hawaii) at NCEP working with WRF teams (application of Semi-Lagrangian to hurricanes and evaluation of NCAR Eulerian vs NMM over Hawaii)

## WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002

- Established Parallel system to run NCAR Eulerian mass model with NCEP physics in identical 8 km HiResWindow configuration
- 4 large domain nests (Western,Central&Eastern CONUS + Alaska)
- 2 small domain nests (Hawaii and Puerto Rico)
- Semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit dynamic core:
- Generalized vertical coordinate embodies pure sigma and pure isentropic and ALL hybrids in between
- Cascade interpolation allowing forward trajectories
- High-order accuracy compact difference schemes
- Non-reflective top boundary condition
- All development within WRF infrastructure

## WRF Development at NCEP/EMC

- FY03 Funding
- $1.5 M
- $700 K NWS base
- $800 K External
- Effort for FY03
- Nelson Seaman hired under IPA to lead NOAA WRF management
- Total 14.3 PY (Model and Data Assim)
- 7.3 PY for development (Semi-Lagrangian, DA)
- 7.0 PY for Mesoscale Branch Infrastructure
- Setting up and making test runs
- NMM benchmark codes and runs
- WRF system test plan

## Appendices

- JCSDA Scientific Projects
- Current NCEP Backup

## Scientific Projects under JCSDA

- Quikscat Winds
- Tested with slightly positive impact
- As of Jan. 22, will be part of operational data stream for use in NCEP models
- TRMM Precipitation Estimates
- Tested and found to be useful supplement to SSM/I data
- Ingested by operational models starting  October 16, 2001

## Scientific Projects under JCSDA

- AMSU radiances
- Used operationally since February 2001
- Statistical correction for cloud liquid water sensitivity being evaluated
- GOES radiances
- Used operationally in both regional (since Sept., 2000) and global systems (since 1998)
- Attempts underway to obtain and use full resolution sounder data

## Current NCEP Backup

- _NCEP Model Products_	             _Backup Model Products_
- 12 km Eta 	      =>    AFWA MM5 @ 45km
- T254L64 GFS         =>    Navy NOGAPS T239L30
- Wave Model 	      =>    Navy WW3 same model
- GFDL Hurricane     =>    Navy GFDN Hurricane
- RUC 20 km	      =>    FSL RUC same model 20 km
- Ensembles 	      =>    No backup available
- WAFS Grids, Fax
-     and Graphics           =>    UKMET
- VAFTAD	      =>	   AFWA PUFF