# Presentation: 859665

## Mars Space Climate Reportfor20-21 January, 2004

- Peter Gallagher, Guillermo Stenborg and
- Barbara J. Thompson
- SOHO Project
- Ronald D. Zwickl
- NOAA Space Environment Center
*Download original PPT for *much* better resolution at:*
*http://beauty.nascom.nasa.gov/~ptg/mars/marsforecast.ppt*
- Other contributions are very welcome!

## Reconstructing the space environment at Earth and Mars

-  Although we have far more assets available to assess the space environment at Earth, they still don't provide enough measurements of the near-Earth heliospheric structure to definitively reconstruct space phenomena. Therefore, the understanding of space climate at Mars is much more incomplete.
-  Since Mars is 50% farther away from Earth, the phenomena reaching Mars have undergone a lot more evolution and are a lot more unpredictable.
-  *Most importantly, *we have yet to implement a consistent effort to coordinate and utilize space weather assets from the standpoint of Mars and lunar missions. Great advances can be made, in some cases, by bringing attention to these issues.

- To understand the potential impact of an eruption or solar event on Mars, we first assess the activity on the Sun for the past few days. However, the solar observations alone do not allow us to make a reasonable space environment assessment, for several key reasons:

## Space Fleet Configuration

- Cassini and the "Sun"

## The Solar Wind 

- LMSAL's forecast page _[http://www.lmsal.com/forecast/](http://www.lmsal.com/forecast/)_
- runs a real-timemodel of the inner heliosphere showing a "typical" Parker spiral (the small white dot is Earth). The magnetic spiral has already wrapped by more than 60 degrees by the time it reaches Earth. Energetic particle events move quickly and "ski" along the spiral, while solar eruptions move semi-radially and take several days to reach Earth.

- The Solar Wind

## How the Spiral Works

- The solar wind propagates radially outward from the Sun carrying  an embedded magnetic field. The appearance of the spiral nature, called the archimedean spiral, is produced by the combination of the "frozen-in" magnetic field being carried radially outward in the expanding solar wind plasma while the Sun continues to rotate.
- This is exactly the same phenomena seen in your own yard when watering with a rotating sprinkler head. The water looks like it is spiraling outward when in fact it is traveling radially outward. Keep your eye on a single element of water and you will see it travels outward in a radial line. However, if you look at the entire pattern and it appears to be rotating or swirling outward.

## Space Fleet Location 

- Cassini-Huygens
- Probe

- Ulysses

- Earth

- Mars

- Jupiter

- Saturn

- The solar wind spirals throughout the solar system. We consider the "spiral connectivity" when we combine measurements from multiple spacecraft.  Unfortunately, few measurements in late January are easily connected by the spiral, but phenomena spread in longitude may be observed by multiple missions.

- Space Fleet Location

## Inner Planets

*Go to *_[http://beauty.nascom.nasa.gov/~ptg/mars/movies/inner/inner.html](http://beauty.nascom.nasa.gov/~ptg/mars/movies/inner/inner.html)_
*for a movie showing the field lines of Mercury and Earth sweeping past Mars and other planets. These conjunctions are excellent opportunities.*

## Outer Planets

*Please go to *_[http://beauty.nascom.nasa.gov/~ptg/mars/movies/planet_sat/planet_sat.](http://beauty.nascom.nasa.gov/~ptg/mars/movies/planet_sat/planet_sat.html)__[html](http://beauty.nascom.nasa.gov/~ptg/mars/movies/planet_sat/planet_sat.html)_*  to see this animated!  *_[http://beauty.nascom.nasa.gov/~ptg/mars/movies/planets/planets.](http://beauty.nascom.nasa.gov/~ptg/mars/movies/planets/planets.html)__[html](http://beauty.nascom.nasa.gov/~ptg/mars/movies/planets/planets.html)_* is the movie without the spacecraft.*

## Activity on the Sun

- SOHO/EIT was running a "CME watch" campaign and observed a number of eruptions January 16-22.

## Activity on the Sun: Mars

- Again, while solar eruptions travel semi-radially, the energetic particle events move along the magnetic spiral. Eruptions from the West, or interplanetary shocks, are most likely to cause these events at Mars.

## Activity on the Sun: CMEs

## Activity on the Sun: CMEs

## SOHO/EIT Activity Report

**Date****	****Start****	****End****	****Flare Active  ****	****CME ****	**** Polar****	****	****	****Description ****	****(UT)****	****(UT)****	****Flux   Reg. #      ?       Angle****16 Jan 04**	01:12	03:24 	 	**	****	****	****	****CME**		W 	Small filament eruption, large dimming off-limb 16 Jan 04	01:12	02:12 	 		 							NE 	Large spurt in AR on disk 16 Jan 04	04:00	08:00 	 		 							NW 	"anemone" evolution in AR on disk 16 Jan 04	20:00	23:48 	 	**	****	****	****	****CME**		W 	Loop expansion, dimming off limb **17 Jan 04**	04:24	06:12 	 	**	****	****	****	****CME**		W 	Larger loop CME, dimming 17 Jan 04 	09:24	10:00 	 		10540	 				SE 	Large spurt in active region 17 Jan 04	13:36	22:00 	 		 							NE 	Very interesting filament evolution 17 Jan 04	15:24	16:48 	 	**	****	****	****	****CME**		SW 	Off-limb CME, loop disappearing _17 Jan 04__	__17:48__	__18:36 __	__**M5**__	__10540__** **__**	**__**CME**__	__	__SE __	__Flare and extended dimming to S _**18 Jan 04**000:12	00:36 	**M1**	10540	 				SE 	No apparent CME 18 Jan 04	17:36	22:12 	 	**	****	****	****	****CME**		W 	Apparent dimming, CME 18 Jan 04	22:12	23:12 	 	**	****	****	****	****CME**		E 		Small narrow CME *(underlined observations are potentially Mars-directed. The eruptions will take 3-7 days to reach Mars.)*

## SOHO/EIT Activity Report

**Date****	****Start****	****End****	****Flare Active  ****	****CME ****	**** Polar****	****	****	****Description ****	****(UT)****	****(UT)****	****Flux   Reg. #      ?       Angle****19 Jan 04**	08:48	11:24 	 	**	****	****	****	****CME**	  WSW Very interesting slow CME off-limb 19 Jan 04	12:36	13:36 **	****M1**	10540	 				DC 	Flare in active region19 Jan 04	14:24	15:24 	**C3**	10543	 				DC 	Evolution and flare in AR 19 Jan 04	20:00	20:48 	**C8**	10540	 				DC 	Flare in active region  19 Jan 04	22:24	23:48 	**C5**	10540**	****CME  ****	**	SW 	Big beautiful eruption with extended dimming 																			and large erupting area. Flare and post-CME 																				loops were spread far from the active region. **20 Jan 04****2**03:24	08:28 	 		 							 NW Very interesting evolution in large filament 																				channel 20 Jan 04	06:48	08:00 	 	**	****	****	****	****CME**		W 	Small "puff" CME off limb 20 Jan 04	07:36	09:24 **	****M6**	10540**	****CME**		DC 	Large flare/CME/dimming on disk SW of disk ctr _20 Jan 04__	__17:12__	__18:36 __	__ __	__**	**__**	**__**	**__**	**__**CME**__	__	__ESE Small CME with off-limb loops opening, dimming _20 Jan 04	19:36	20:49 	 	**	****	****	****	****CME**		WSW 	Narrow fast CME off-limb with bright loops **21 Jan 04****	**00:24	01:24 	**C2**	10543	 				SW 	Evolution in Active Region _21 Jan 04__	__03:36__	__05:36 __	__ __	__**	**__**	**__**	**__**	**__**CME**__	__	__SE __	__Large beautiful prominence eruption on disk _21 Jan 04	06:12	06:36 	 	**	****	****	****	****CME**		W 	Small dark filament eruption with activity off-limb*(underlined observations are potentially Mars-directed. The eruptions will take 3-7 days to reach Mars.)** *

##  SOHO/LASCO Activity Report

**Date****	****	****	****Start****	****    Polar****	****	****	****Description **
**   ****	****	****	****	****	****(UT)****	****	****Angle**
**16 Jan 04**	01:54		W		Fairly symmetric and faint loop front preceded by a jet at 00:54 UT.
- 16 Jan 04	04:30		NE		Big twisted structure with ragged front.
- 16 Jan 04	05:06		W		Bright loop front with cavity and trailing material.
- 16 Jan 04	17:06		SW		Slow rising faint and diffuse loop' system developing well into next day.
**17 Jan 04**	05:06		SW 		Clear loop front in the slow rising loops' system.
- 17 Jan 04	09:06		W		Small ragged front followed by loop front at 10:34 UT.
- 17 Jan 04	16:54		S			Wide asymmetric loop front followed by a ragged front.Gusty outflow 													follows on SE well into next day.
- _17 Jan 04__	__20:06__	__	__SE__	__	__Very faint asymmetric loop front slightly N of previous event._
**18 Jan 04**	01:31		SE		Jet-like front followed by a similar one at 01:54 UT.
- 18 Jan 04	01:31 		W		Very narrow spray-like front barely visible in C3.
- 18 Jan 04 	03:54		E			Ragged loop front brightest to S. It fades in C3, close to the inner edge.
- 18 Jan 04	10:34		W		Ragged front and twisted trailing material. Couple of small ragged fronts 											follow at 13:54 and 14:30 UT.
- 18 Jan 04	11:54		SW		Ragged loop front brightest to S with cavity. Gusty outflow follows.
- 18 Jan 04	19:31		W		Fast bright ragged loop front with cavity and core.
*(underlined observations are potentially Mars-directed. The eruptions will take 3-7 days to reach Mars.)*

##  SOHO/LASCO Activity Report (cont'd)

**Date****	****	****	****Start****	****    Polar****	****	****	****Description **
**   ****	****	****	****	****	****(UT)****	****	****Angle**
**19 Jan 04**	01:54   	E			Small jet followed by ragged asymmetric loop front slightly to N.
- 19 Jan 04	15:06 		W		'Blob-like' feature starts development at ~ 4 solar radii.
- 19 Jan 04	19:31		W		Faint diffuse loop front. It vanishes close to the inner edge of C2 fov.
**20 Jan 04**	00:06		**HALO**	Big loop front traveling S with cavity and core develops into a 'full' halo CME. Gusty outflow follows to S. C8.2 X-ray flare on NOAA AR 10540 starting at 19:54 UT (on 01/19). EIT Fe XII images show material coming out from the AR starting at around 22:24 UT (on 01/19) . The event has been determined frontsided. For details see:
- 		_[http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/mail/halo_mail/233.html](http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/mail/halo_mail/233.html)_
- 20 Jan 04	03:54		NE		Infalling material with similar feature traveling outward starting at ~ 3.70 											solar radii; followed by infalling narrow 'helmet-like' front at 06:54 UT.
- 20 Jan 04	08:06		S			Very faint loop front (shock?) followed at 08:30 UT by a narrower ragged 											loop front and trailing material. Gusty outflow follows.
- 20 Jan 04	12:06 		W		Faint spray front. It fades close to the inner edge of C3 field of view.
- 20 Jan 04	13:54		E			Faint spray front. It fades throughout C3. Gusty outflow follows.
- 20 Jan 04	15:06		N	  		Faint loops. Difficult to determine exact time of first appearance.
- 20 Jan 04	18:54		W		Asymmetric ragged loop front slightly to S.
- 20 Jan 04	23:54		W		Ragged loop front.
*(underlined observations are potentially Mars-directed. The eruptions will take 3-7 days to reach Mars.)*

## SOHO/LASCO Activity Report 

**Date****	****Start****	****Polar****	****Description **
**   ****	****	****(UT)****	****Angle**
_**21 Jan 04**__	__00:54__	__E__	__Spray-like front_
- _21 Jan 04__	__03:06__	__E__	__Jet-like front slightly to S precedes the HALO at 04:54 UT._
- _21 Jan 04__	__04:54__	__**HALO**__	__Bright loop front with cavity and core developing toward SE. By _06:30 UT the loop spans ~ 175 deg from PA 45 - 215. By 06:54 UT very faint extensions surrounding the rest of the C2 occultor are discernible.Part of a big filament on the SE quadrant in EIT images is seen to erupt starting at 03:36 UT.Therefore, the event has been determined as a 'full' halo CME, frontsided. Gusty outflow follows at SE.
- 		For details see:
- _	__[http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/mail/halo_mail/234.html](http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/mail/halo_mail/234.html)_
*(underlined observations are potentially Mars-directed. The eruptions will take 3-7 days to reach Mars.)*

## SOHO Halo CME Report  20 January 2004

- 	The mean plane-of-sky speed measured at several PA on C3 data resulted as follows: 673 km/s at PA ~054; 653 km/s at PA ~095; 819 km/s at PA ~135; 783 km/s at PA ~180; 708 km/s at PA ~200; 874 km/s at PA ~263; 346 km/s at PA ~351.
- 	The measurement at PA ~180 showed the greatest acceleration.Though the measurement at PA ~263 exhibited the faintest Leading Edge, it is the one taken for the UCMEO code (the fastest one).
- 	The CME was likely associated with complex solar activity  on the visible side of the solar disk. A C5 X-ray flare occurred on NOAA AR 10540 located S16W05, well observed by EIT/Fe XII. This event has therefore been determined to be frontsided.
- Images and movies are available at   ftp://ares.nrl.navy.mil/pub/lasco/halo/20040120

## The Active RegionNOAA 10540

- NOAA 10540 was classified as a  from January 19-22.
- NOAA 10540 produced numerous C- and M-class flares.

## SOHO Halo CME        20 January 2004

- EIT Movie of eruption at disk center

## SOHO Halo CME Report  21 January 2004

- 	The mean plane-of-sky speed measured at several PA on C3 data resulted as follows: 365 km/s at PA ~0;708 km/s at PA ~75;852 km/s at PA ~110; 619 km/s at PA ~140.
- 	The faintness of the front makes it impossible to make reliable measurements on the west. The measurement at PA ~110 is the one taken for the UCMEO code (i.e., the fastest one).
- 	The CME was most likely associated with a filament eruption on the visible side of the solar disk. Between 03:36 and 05:36 UT EIT/Fe XII images show the eruption of part of a big filament that extends from roughly the center of the solar disk all along the SE quadrant to the SE limb. At around 04:24 UT post-event loops start to develop (at 07:25 UT the developing of the post-event loops can be well seen in EIT Fe XII data). GOES did not record any significant on-disk events around the time.  This event has therefore been determined to be frontsided.
- Images and movies are available at  _[ftp://ares.nrl.navy.mil/pub/lasco/halo/](ftp://ares.nrl.navy.mil/pub/lasco/halo/20040121)__[20040121](ftp://ares.nrl.navy.mil/pub/lasco/halo/20040121)_
*This CME has a high likelihood of reaching Mars between January 24 and January 27.*

## SOHO Halo CME      21 January 2004

- Notice the eruption occurs at the Eastern (Mars-directed) longitude!

## Tracking CMEs to Mars

- Cassini-Huygens
- Probe

- Ulysses

- Earth

- Mars

- Jupiter

- Saturn

- Measurements of a shock and energetic particles at Earth may indicate the possibility of energetic particles reaching Mars. Though the spiral isn't perfectly connected, these events can often span wide ranges in longitude.

## The 20 Jan 2004 Halo CME and 22 Jan Shock Front

- Such a shock could have been accelerating energetic particles since the beginning of the eruption. When the shock crosses a heliospheric spiral magnetic field line connecting to Mars or Earth, energetic particles can be detected far in advance (or absence) of a shock front.

- A shock from the January 20 Halo CME arrived at Earth early on 22 January,
- The peak CME velocity was ~870 km/s.

## Energetic Particles at Earth

- No increase of energetic protons seen in GOES-11 monitor (inside the Earth's magnetosphere)
- Interplanetary K index jumped from K~2 to K~7 at ~00:00 UT on January 22.

## Magnetic activity in the form of flares, energetic particle events, shocks, and coronal mass ejections have effects which can be felt throughout the solar system

- Movie of combined observations from the NASA SEC fleet of spacecraft from the **X1.4** flare of April 22, 2002.
- This was the third largest flare recorded until October of 2003.

## Earth (and Mars, to a lesser extent) have magnetic fields which form a protective cocoon. We have yet to assess which particle energies have the strongest impact on Mars.

## ... but solar magnetic eruptions fight fire with fire. Powerful magnetic fields from the Sun can have extensive impacts. 

- An excellent tutorial on planetary magnetospheres can be found at:
*http://www-ssc.igpp.ucla.edu/ssc/tutorial/planet_magnetospheres.html*

## Mars in the Solar Wind

- The average surface magnetic field is much less that that of Earth, ranging from ~0.001-0.0001 G.
- Locally, the field can reach a maximum of a few tenths of a Gauss.
- The upper atmosphere of Mars is therefore completely exposed to  variations in the solar wind.

- The Martian dynamo turned off some 4 billion years ago, and so without a substantial magnetosphere, Mars’ atmosphere is exposed directly to the solar wind.

## Mars in the Solar Wind

- Mars

- Earth

- The Martian atmosphere and ionosphere are primarily responsible for diverting the solar wind around the planet because Mars lacks a significant planetary magnetic field.
- Mars is an “*induced obstacle*” in the solar wind;  the electrically conducting ionosphere interacts with the solar wind magnetic field, generating currents in the ionosphere that shield the lower portions of the atmosphere from the solar wind.
- This is very unlike our Earth, which is encapsulated with a magnetosphere. The magnetosphere buffers us from charged particles in the solar wind.

## Particle Effects at Mars

- Mars

- Earth

- Of course, if solar energetic particle (SEP) events are of concern to Earth, Mars, with its weaker magnetic shield, is also vulnerable.
- Several authors, including *Leblanc et al  [JGR, Vol. 107, No. A5, 1058, 2002] *anticipated the need to understand space weather effects at Mars. Figure 8 (above) from their paper shows that model calculations of energetic particle fluxes in the solar wind (squares) and penetrating to the surface (triangles).

## Even More Issues Regardless of Eruptions

- Mars

- Earth

- Not far beyond Earth orbit, the solar wind's density continues to decrease, and the increasing interaction between the variations in the solar wind causes it to steepen into shocks. By 2 AU, most of the solar wind is comprised of shocked regions, and these large shocks dominate the outer heliosphere.
- Tracking the rotation of shocks and Corotating Interaction Regions (CIR's) is important because they are a strong source of energetic particles in the outer heliosphere. Even at solar minimum, independent of solar eruptions, these shocked regions can cause significant space weather effects at Mars' orbit!

**Hundhausen, 1972**

## Communicating with the Rovers and Orbiters

- Spirit can choose to use four antennas: the UHF, or the low-, medium-, and high-gain antennas.
- The rovers communicate with the orbiters  (Odyssey and Global Surveyor) via UHF and the DSN via the X-band.
- UHF (0.3-3 GHz) can be severely effected by ionospheric disturbances induced by solar activity.
- Question: Can X-band communications be affected by space weather??

## X1.1

- The Solar Activity of Fall 2003:The magnetic fields continued to evolve as they rotated across the Sun. The flares produced were some of the highest in recorded history. The associated eruptions were fast and powerful.

- 19 Oct 2003

- X1.0
- 22 Oct 2003

- X5.4
- 23 Oct 2003

- 23 Oct 2003

- X1.2
- 26 Oct 2003

- X1.2
- 26 Oct 2003

- X17.2
- 28 Oct 2003

- X10.0
- 29 Oct 2003

- X8.3
- 2 Nov 2003

- X2.7
- 3 Nov 2003

- X3.9
- 3 Nov 2003

- X28
- 4 Nov 2003

## Mars missions have had trouble with space weather before!

## Slide 36

## Mars Anomaly Timeline

***Congratulations Mars Team on their painstaking efforts to reestablish their observations. We at SOHO can sympathize!*****  **

**21 Jan   1430 GMT - Weak signal cuts short commands **
**21 Jan   1513 GMT - No high gain antenna contact made **
**21 Jan   1747 GMT - Mars Odyssey pass, but no data received **
**22 Jan   0302 GMT - Mars Global Surveyor receives noise **
**22 Jan   0536 GMT - Mars Odyssey pass receives no data **
**22 Jan   0800 GMT - No "direct-to-Earth" link established **
**23 Jan  1234 GMT  - weak data rate received for 10 minutes. **

## In lieu of a conclusion slide...

- We don't have many conclusions yet - just loads of spirit and opportunity. Until the next update, we offer this instead: