# Presentation: 679725

##    Climate change – are we approaching a tipping point?   

- Modeling the Oil Transition Workshop
- April 20-21, 2006
- By
- Janet PeaceSenior FellowThe Pew Center on Global Climate Change

## Overview

- Pew Center – who we are
- Why a transition from oil is important to climate change efforts
- Elements that suggest we are near a tipping point
- Science
- Public perception of the issue
- State Efforts
- Business Perspective
- Federal efforts
- Implications

## The Pew Center

- Founded in May 1998
- Independent, Non-Profit, Non-Partisan
- Research (science and impacts, policy, economics, solutions)
- Education and Outreach
- Business Environmental Leadership Council

## Pew Center

***Research and analysis***
- 50+ peer-reviewed reports on climate science, economics, policy, solutions
***Business Environmental Leadership Council***
- 41 companies (most Fortune 500) in energy, mining, transportation, manufacturing, consumer products, high-tech, other sectors
***Policy dialogue and input***
- State, federal, international

## 41 BELC Companies

**41 BELC Companies**

## A transition from oil is necessary (1)

-    The U.S. is the largest emitter of GHGs and emissions are increasing

**Notes:**
net greenhouse gas emissions during 2004 increased by 1.7 per cent on the previous year

The figures show that the total US emissions have risen by 15.8 per cent from 1990 to 2004, mainly due to increased consumption of electricity generated by burning fossil fuel, a rise in energy demands caused by increased industrial production and a rise in petrol consumption due to increased travel. Fossil fuel combustion alone accounted for 94 per cent of the carbon dioxide emissions produced by the US during 2004, the figures show.

## A transition from oil is necessary (2)

- Transportation accounts for 33% of U.S. CO2 emissions
- Transportation is the fastest growing source of CO2 emissions

## A transition from oil is necessary (3)

- Source:  EPA - Emissions Inventory 2006

## A transition from oil is necessary (4)

- For every gallon of gas burned, a car produces roughly 20 pounds of CO2.
- The average car (in terms of fuel economy) driven the average number of miles per year (15,000) produces approximately 13,000 pounds of CO2 annually.

## Are we on the tipping point of major change?

## The debate in the U.S.  has changed  - why?

- Scientific certainty
- Increased public pressure
- Increased industry action

## Recent Scientific Developments

- Polar ice
- Mountain glaciers
- Continuing worldwide loss, at an accelerating rate
- Species changes
- Hurricanes

## ABC NEWS/STANFORD UNIVERSITY/TIME (3/2006)

**Recent Opinion**

- ABC News/Washington Post Poll 6/15/2005

## Recent Opinion (cont.)

- If nothing is done to reduce global warming in the future, how serious a problem will it be for the U.S./world?
- 	Very serious	49%/57%
- 	Somewhat serious	34/28
- 	Not so serious	10/8
- 	Not at all	6/5
- 	No opinion	2/2
- Which would you rather see the federal government do: require companies and individuals to do things to reduce global warming, offer tax cuts to encourage these things, or do nothing to influence these things?
- 	Require	52%
- 	Encourage	38
- 	Do nothing	8
- 	No opinion	2

**Recent Opinion (cont.)**

## Increased Media Attention (1)

## Increased Media Attention (2)

## New Constituencies

- (released 2/2006)
-   Claim 1: Human-Induced Climate Change is Real
-   Claim 2: The Consequences of Climate Change Will Be
-                  Significant, and Will Hit the Poor the Hardest
-   Claim 3: Christian Moral Convictions Demand Our
- 	                 Response to the Climate Change Problem
-   Claim 4: The need to act now is urgent. Governments,
-                  businesses, churches, and individuals all have a
-                  role to play in addressing climate change—
-                  starting now.

**New Constituencies**

## Regional Initiatives

**West Coast Governors’ Initiative**

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**RGGI**

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**Western Governor’s Association**

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**NEG-ECP**

** **

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**Powering the Plains**

**Southwest Climate Change Initiative     **

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## US. States: RGGI System Overview

- Regional cap and trade program proposed by Governor Pataki
- Eight states in New England and Mid-Atlantic (including Maryland) are participating
- Will initially cover power sector >25MW
- Program start date 2009

## RGGI MOU

- Cap implemented in two phases
- Phase I the goal is to stabilize at 150 million tons (current levels) 2009-2015
- Phase II 10% reduction between 2015-2020
- Cap applied initially to electricity generators
- Offsets allowed:  1st group includes landfill methane, SF-6 from transformers, demand-side gas efficiency, afforestation (geographic scope increased if price becomes greater than $7)
- Proposed linkage with EU and CDM flexible mechanisms (*if allowance price becomes greater $10*)

## Other state climate efforts

- California
- Targets and timetables: 2000 levels by 2010, 1990 levels by 2020, 80% below current emissions by 2050
**Commission Key recommendations include:**
**The development of a market-based, multi-sector system by the CAT, with a recommendation on design by Jan 1, 2008.**
**Mandatory emissions reporting**
** ****The extension of the cap on emissions from IOUs to all load-serving entities, consistent with a market-based program**
** ****An aggressive biofuels program**
**The extension of the state RPS and energy efficiency targets to publicly-owned utilities**
**CO****2**** labeling for cars after 2009**
- North Carolina
- New Mexico/Arizona

## State Renewable Portfolio Standards

**DE: 10% by 2019**

## State GHG Reporting & Registries

## State statistics

-      28 states have climate action plans
-       40 states have at least one utility that permits customers to 	        sell electricity back to the grid through “net metering”
-        35 states have utility “green pricing” options
-        27 states have incentives that promote ethanol;  and 3 of  	        those states have mandates;
-        2 states have public benefit funds that support energy 	          	       efficiency; the funds in 14 of these states also support
- 		       renewable energy;
-        9 states are poised to follow California’s GHG emissions
- 		      standards for vehicles.

## Business Activities

- Wal-Mart
- Ambitious GHG reduction goal/outreach
- General Electric “ecomagination”
- Market-shaping strategies for climate-friendly products.
- Committed to improve its energy efficiency 30% and cut its worldwide GHG emissions by 1% by 2012
- Announced in 2005 that it would double its yearly investment in cleaner technologies from $700 million in 2004 to $1.5 billion in 2010.
- BP
- Toyota
- United Technologies

## Business Engagement in Policy

- “Long-term certainty would help us all make smart decisions...We believe that the government can provide leadership by clarifying policy, by committing to market mechanisms [and] by promoting diverse energy sources...” – *Jeff Immelt, CEO, GE*
- “The changes needed in our energy infrastructure to meet future demand and respond to climate change will not happen by chance - a clear, long term framework will give business the necessary incentive and confidence to invest further.” - *John D. Hofmeister, President, Shell Oil Co.*
- “We accept that the science of global warming is overwhelming.  We accept that limitations on greenhouse gases emissions will prove necessary.  Until those limitations are adopted, we believe that business should take voluntary action to begin the transition to a lower carbon future." – *John Rowe, CEO, Exelon*

## Key Federal Climate Initiatives

-   U.S. Energy Bill 2005
- Renewable Fuel Standard
- Production Incentives for biofuels
-   McCain-Lieberman cap-and-trade bill  (defeated)
- cap at 2000 levels by 2010
-   Passage of Bingaman-Domenici resolution,
-         54–43

- “sense of Senate that human-caused GHGs are causing temperatures to rise, and Congress should enact a national mandatory, market-based program to slow, stop, and reverse growth of these emissions”

## Progress in the Senate :

- February 2006, _[Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee](http://www.pewclimate.org/)__  Whitepaper _
- Senator Feinstein (D-CA) Strong Economy and Climate Protection Act, discussion draft
- Fall 2005, Pete Domenici (R-NM) chairing hearings on science and economics
- Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) proposal to reduce growth of GHG emissions
- Mandatory cap-and-trade (based on intensity)
- Based on recommendations from the National Commission on Energy Policy
- Safety valve price cap of $7 per ton
- Committee vote possible 2006?

## Implications for the transition from oil

_***Positive implications***_
- Increased usage of renewable energy
- Increased use of renewable fuels
- Increased emphasis on energy efficiency
- Increased emphasis on technology
_***Areas of Concern***_
- Because of supply security issue, increased use of unconventional fossil fuels
- Delinked climate policy (higher cost and lower targets)
- Price capping mechanisms (that undermine the carbon market signal)
-  Weak federal climate policy that undermines state efforts (like fuel efficiency standards)

## For More Information

*Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions*
*	**from U.S. Transportation** *
- 			by David Green and Andreas Schafer
*Agenda for Climate Action*
- www.pewclimate.org