# Presentation: 662448

## National Weather Service4th Quarter Review 

***December 8, 2003***

## NWS 4th Quarter Actuals - OR&F($ in Millions)

| Plan | 136.97 | 300.17 | 478.73 | 695.23 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Actual | 134.46 | 349.38 | 479.68 | 694.54 |

**NWS 4th Quarter Actuals - OR&F****($ in Millions)**

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
 $690K under plan through the 4th quarter
 NWS obligated 99.9% of the plan through the 4th quarter
 Funds returned by NOAA Budget Execution after year end close will increase the NWS balance from $690K to 2.7M 

Operation and Research $46K under plan
100% spent
 Minimal balance of $46K

System Operations and Maintenance $600K under plan
99.3% spent
Balance of 643.2K
Carry over requested for Gateway Backup (Requisition was submitted but award was delayed until FY 2004)

## NWS OR&F Appropriations by Sub-Activity – 4th Quarter($K)

|  
Sub-Activity | Annual
Plan ($) | Actual 
Obligation ($) | Percent (%) of Annual Plan Obligated | Variance from Plan to Date ($) | Variance from Plan to Date % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Operations and Research | 606,646.9 | 606,600.0 | 99.9% | 46.9 | 0.0% |
| Systems Operations & Maintenance | 88,584.7 | 87,941.5 | 99.3% | 643.2 | 0.7% |
| TOTAL | 695,231.6 | 694,541.5 | 99.9% | 690.1 | 0.09% |

**NWS OR&F Appropriations by ****Sub-Activity – 4th Quarter****($K)**

## NWS 4th Quarter Actuals – PAC ($ in Millions)

| Plan | 3.8 | 21.7 | 41.1 | 61.8 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Actual | 4.6 | 20.0 | 43.7 | 60.3 |

**NWS 4th Quarter Actuals – PAC ****($ in Millions)**

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
 $1.4M under plan through 4th quarter
 NWS obligated 97.7% of the annual plan with 2.3% variance through the 4th
    quarter
 Due to large volume of accounting adjustments processed in 3rd and 4th quarters,     97.7% variance represents a minimal deviation from the plan
 Lack of funding for construction required corrective action in base accounts

PAC – Systems Operation & Maintenance (O&M) $4.3K under plan
 Obligations were charged against this account in error.  Attempts to correct resulted in over correction by $4.3K (credit balance)

Systems Acquisition $1,372K under plan
 $342K was not distributed pending NOAA reprogramming
 $600K was not obligated although document was sent to procurement in a timely manner.  Failure to obligate was not realized until after closing
 $100k was incorrectly charged to base
 Remaining balance ($330K) was spread among multiple FMCs and projects.

Construction $43.6K under plan
Multiple cost adjustments left a small balance remaining in this account

## NWS PAC Appropriations by Sub-Activity – 4th Quarter($K)

|  
Sub-Activity | Annual
Plan ($) | Actual 
Obligation ($) | Percent (%) of Annual Plan Obligated | Variance from Plan to Date ($) | Variance from Plan to Date % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Systems Operations & Maintenance (O&M) | 0.0 | -4.3 | 0% |    4.3 | 0% |
| Systems Acquisition | 58,760.8 | 57,388.3 | 97.7% | 1372.5 | 2.3% |
| Construction | 2,992.7 | 2,949.1 | 98.5% |    43.6 | 1.5% |
| TOTAL | 61,753.5 | 60,333.1 | 97.7% | 1,420.4 | 2.3% |

**NWS PAC Appropriations by ****Sub-Activity – 4th Quarter****($K)**

## Strategic Plan Metrics

|  | FY01 | FY02 | FY03 | FY04 | FY05 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NEXRAD PI ($M) | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 11.4 |
| NEXRAD O&M ($M) | 38.7 | 40.0 | 39.7 | 42.3 | 42.3 |
| AWIPS PI ($M) | 15.9 | 16.3 | 16.2 | 14.1 | 11.9 |
| AWIPS O&M ($M) | 35.3 | 36.5 | 36.3 | 37.6 | 37.6 |

**Tornado Lead Time**

_**Tornado Lead Time**_

_**Timeline/Next Steps**_

_**Issues**_

_**Funding**_

**AWIPS:**
***Bandwidth***
***Processing speed***
***Outyear product improvement budget***

**NEXRAD:  Open Systems Radar Acquisition (FY05)**
**AWIPS:  LINUX Upgrades (FY02+)**
**Improve forecaster capabilities:***** ***
***Advanced Weather Operations Course (FY05)***
***NOAA Diversity Best Practices at local offices (Ongoing)****** ***

-    **FY01****	****  FY02                FY03                FY04               FY05**

**4th Quarter Actual**

**Strategic Plan Metrics**

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
This GPRA goal supports NOAA goal 3: Serve Society’s Needs for Weather and Water Information
Outcome Measure: Increased Accuracy and amount of lead time (by category of storm type)
 Preliminary FY03 actual: 13 minutes; FY03 goal of 12 minutes
 The number of tornado events in FY03 was the most in the WSR-88D/modernized NWS era.
 NWS performance during the May 4-10 Tornado Outbreak was the primary reason for the better than expected annual average lead time.
During the May outbreak, WFOs averaged a 19 minute average lead time for 375 tornado events.  
  Forecasters recognize tornadic radar signatures during significant and large scale outbreaks 
  These radar signatures and spotter reports of tornadoes give WFOs the confidence to issue longer lead time warnings
Note:  Widespread outbreaks such as May 2003 do not occur every year.   
The current FY04 and FY05 goals of 12 and 13 minutes are acceptable based on current science and technology.     
Funding:
FY04 budget includes and increase of $3.7M for acceleration of Open Radar Data retrofits on the NEXRAD
Timeline/Next Steps:
Improve local training through the use of the Weather Event Simulator (FY03)
Forecasters now have the ability to conduct training exercises using severe weather radar, satellite and model data
AWIPS LINUX Upgrades
 LINUX upgrades will allow faster processing or warning information (both meteorology and dissemination)
 Planned Upgrades:
 LINUX Pre-Processor Deployment: Expected completion 3rd quarter FY03
 LINUX Workstation replacement: Expected completion 2nd quarter FY04
 X-Terminal (Text Workstation) Replacement: Expected completion 2nd quarter FY05
 Data Server Replacement: Expected completion FY05-FY06 (exact date TBD)
National training on Severe Weather Watch and Warning Philosophy at the Advanced Weather Operations Course (FY05)
NOAA’s Warning Decision Training Branch will train forecasters on the latest Tornado Warning techniques and radar capabilities
Deployment of ORDA to severe weather prone areas of the country prior to the 2005 severe weather season (FY05)
The deployment of this radar hardware and software will allow for faster scan times and finer data resolution
 Accelerates the value scan from 5 to 2.5 minutes
 Extends range from 120km to 240km
 Incorporate NOAA Diversity Best Practices into local office to improve Tornado Warning Performance (Ongoing)
Human factors can be important as technology and training in maximizing tornado warning performance.  These best practices include:
Managers lead by example and work severe weather events
Managers back up their forecasters’ decisions in Tornado Warning operations

## Strategic Plan Metrics

|  |  | 2001 | 2002 |  2003 |  |  |  |  2004 |  2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lead Time Annual Goal |  |  | 11.0 | 12.0 |  |  |  | 12.0 | 13.0 |
| Lead Time Actual | 10.0 |  | 12.0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 | N/A | N/A |
| NEXRAD PI ($M) | 8.3 |  | 8.3 | 8.2 |  |  |  | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| NEXRAD O&M ($M) | 38.7 |  | 40.0 | 39.7 |  |  |  | 42.3 | 42.3 |
| AWIPS PI ($M) | 15.9 |  | 16.3 | 16.2 |  |  |  | 14.1 | 11.9 |
| AWIPS O&M ($M) | 35.3 |  | 36.5 | 36.3 |  |  |  | 37.6 | 37.6 |

**4th Quarter Actual**

**Tornado Lead Time**

**Strategic Plan Metrics**

**>>**

## Strategic Plan Metrics

| Lead Time Annual Goal |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 11.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 15.0 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lead Time Actual | 3.4 | 4 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.36 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 13.0 |  |  |  |  |
| # Events | 667 | 661 | 1009 | 1261 | 1252 | 1189 | 1421 | 1128 | 1244 | 1269 | 1176 | 1544 | 1603 | 1045 | 1205 | 1028 | 1672 |  |  |  |  |

**<<**

**Tornado Lead Time**

**Strategic Plan Metrics**

**Notes:**
 The number of tornado events in FY03 was the most in the WSR-88D/modernized NWS era.  
Talking Points:
 Lead times have improved from less than 4 minutes 1987 to over 10 minutes in 1995:
 Improvement in 1993-1995 can be directly attributed to NEXRAD deployment
 Since 1995, tornado lead time remained steady state around 10 minutes.
 We have a GPRA goal to reach 15 minutes lead time FY 2007
 Out-year improvements depend on planned retrofits to NEXRAD hardware, continued emphasis on training, including use of the Weather Event Simulator,  and implementation of best practices procedures in field offices

Background Information
 Per the 1st Quarter Guidance, goals have been updated to better reflect our recent performance
 Prior year goals were: FY03: 11 min.; FY04: 12 min. (no change); FY05: 13 min. (no change); FY06: 13 min.; FY07: 14 min

## Strategic Plan Metrics

|  | FY01 | FY02 | FY03 | FY04 | FY05 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NEXRAD PI ($M) | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 11.4 |
| NEXRAD O&M ($M) | 38.7 | 40.0 | 39.7 | 42.3 | 42.3 |
| AWIPS PI ($M) | 15.9 | 16.3 | 16.2 | 14.1 | 11.9 |
| AWIPS O&M ($M) | 35.3 | 36.5 | 36.3 | 37.6 | 37.6 |
| AHPS | 1.0 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| COOP | - | - | 3.0 | 4.2 | 10.0 |

**Flash Flood Lead Time**

_**Flash Flood Lead Time**_

_**Timeline/Next Steps**_

_**Issues**_

_**Funding**_

**NEXRAD:  Open Systems Radar Acquisition (FY05) **
**AWIPS:  LINUX Upgrades (FY02+)**
**Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) (FY03-FY05)**
**ASOS precipitation gauge (FY03/04)**
**Cooperative Observer Network Modernization (COOP) (FY03+)**
**Convert metric to running, 4-year average for FY 04 (Modify strategic plan to reflect change)**

**AWIPS:**
***Bandwidth***
***Processing speed***
***Outyear product improvement budget***
**AHPS and COOP Deployment Pacing**
**Continued FFMP training is necessary to improve the warning capability at field offices.  **
**Continued AHPS funding is critical to the enhancement of flash flood services.**

-      **FY01****	****   FY02               FY03                FY04               FY05**

**4th Quarter **
**Actual**

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
 Supports NOAA Goal 3: Serve Society’s Needs for Weather and Water Information
 Outcome Measure: Increased accuracy and amount of lead time (by category of storm type)
 Preliminary 4th Quarter cumulative actual: 41 minutes (subject to change);  behind FY03 goal of 47 minutes
FY 2003:   
Because of the lower than expected lead times in the 1st and 4th quarters of this year, the preliminary average for the year, 41 minutes, is below the FY03 goal of 47 minutes. 
When conditions are dry, the runoff from precipitation events takes longer to begin as the ground is soaking up the initial rain; therefore, lead times are longer.  When conditions are wet, precipitation occurs on top of saturated soil and the runoff begins immediately, resulting in shorter lead times.
 Most flash flood events this past year occurring on wet ground, resulting in shorter lead times and the missed goal
The western half of the US has been extremely dry this past year, to the point of having almost no reports of flash flood events, while the eastern portion of the US has been unusually wet.  
Total number of events in FY03 (3392) exceeded those for FY02 (3021), FY01 (2779) and FY00 (2324).
 Having significantly more events focused in areas where the ground was saturated exacerbated the rainfall-to-immediate runoff problem, yielding shorter lead times.
  FY03 4th Quarter Actual (July-September only):  35 minutes 
Timeline/Next Steps:
 NEXRAD ORDA (FY05): will provide precipitation estimates on a much smaller grid which will give forecasters many more points to average for the basin rainfall.  This will deliver more precise precipitation input for forecasting Flash Floods.
 AWIPS:  
 Enhanced AHPS multisensor precipitation algorithms: Will increase forecast accuracy and ability to predict the time when streams will reach various critical levels as flood waters rise and fall (FY04 and Beyond)
 Continued enhancement of AHPS Flash Flood Monitoring  and Prediction (FFMP) decision assistance tools: improvements to the basin data and enhancement of a major input will reduce the workload on forecasters, allowing for greater lead times during an event (FY03 and Beyond)
 Implementation of AHPS distributed hydrologic model: OHD, collaborating with other distributed model developers worldwide has developed a distributed model and is in the process of evaluating it. Will be deployed in FY05. 
ASOS Improved precipitation gauge data: provides the forecaster with critical information to issue flash flood warnings.  Although radar and satellite data greatly improve forecasts, ground truth data is essential for confirming that these data is correct. 
 COOP Modernization Network
 Includes new COTS precipitation gauge and new real-time communications
 Currently: 3,000 precipitation sites reporting daily
 Plan: 8,000 precipitation sites reporting hourly
 Provides improved spatial and temporal density for WSR-88D rainfall estimate calibration
 Flood forecast error: Current capability: 51%; Goal: 23%

## Strategic Plan Metrics

**Flash Flood Lead Time**

|  | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 |  |  |  | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Lead  Time Annual Goal |  | 45.0 | 47.0 |  |  |  | -- | -- |
| Running 4-year average goal |  |  |  |  |  |  | 47 | 47 |
| Lead Time Actual | 46.6 | 52.8 | 41.3 | 47.8 | 44.8 | 41.1 | N/A | N/A |
| NEXRAD PI ($M) | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 |  |  |  | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| NEXRAD O&M ($M) | 38.7 | 40.0 | 39.7 |  |  |  | 42.3 | 42.3 |
| AWIPS PI ($M) | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.2 |  |  |  | 14.1 | 11.9 |
| AWIPS O&M ($M) | 35.3 | 36.5 | 36.3 |  |  |  | 37.6 | 37.6 |

**>>**

**Notes:**
 New row includes proposed 4-year running average lead time goals.
 Deleted lead time annual goal to indicate shift to new 4-year running average.
 Transition to 4-year running average coordinated with Regional Hydrologic Services Chiefs and CFO staff.
 4-year running average goals are:  FY06 – 48 minutes; FY07 – 48 minutes; FY08 – 49 minutes.

## Strategic Plan Metrics

| Lead Time Annual Goal |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 45.0 | 47.0 | - | - | - | - |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Running 4-year average goal |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | 47.0 | 47.0 | 48.0 | 48.0 |
| Lead Time Actual | 7.8 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 16.5 | 22.0 | 17.9 | 26.6 | 42.6 | 50.3 | 51.0 | 44.3 | 42.7 | 46.6 | 52.8 | 41.1 |  |  |  |  |
| # Events | 934 | 436 | 1367 | 2320 | 2015 | 1722 | 2108 | 2190 | 2437 | 2793 | 3229 | 3142 | 2713 | 2324 | 2779 | 3021 | 3392 |  |  |  |  |

**Flash Flood Lead Time**

**<<**

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
FY 03 lead time actual and number of events are preliminary.
New row indicates proposed 4-year running average lead time goals
Deleted lead time annual goal to indicate shift to new 4-year running average.
Lead times have improved from less than 8 minutes in FY87 to over 45 minutes in FY02.  
Improvements in FY94-FY97 timeframe are largely attributed to NEXRAD deployment
Flash flood lead times depict year-to-year variability since 1996
Out-year improvements in lead times are linked to improved training techniques, implementation of new flash flood decision assistance tools, and retrofits to the NEXRAD Open Radar Product Generator (ORPG) that allow forecasters to use new precipitation algorithms and dual polarization

Background Information:
Enhanced AHPS forecast tools and decision assistance capabilities implemented via AWIPS, improved ASOS precipitation gage data, implementation of the COOP Modernization Network, and NEXRAD Dual Polarization initiative will provide the impetus for future service improvements, including probability-of-detection (POD) and lead times. Dual-polarization technology can provide measurements of hydrometeor geometry and drop size distribution leading to possible distinction between rain, hail, and snow.

## Strategic Plan Metrics

|  | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Budget ($M) | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 |

**5 Day Global Weather Model Performance **
**(Anomaly Correlation at 500mb)**

_**Anomaly Correlation at 500mb**_

_**Timeline/Next Steps**_

_**Issues**_

_**Funding**_

**None**

**High Performance Computer Upgrades (FY03+)**
**Improve Data Assimilation and Modeling **
***Increase Horizontal Resolution (FY05/FY08)***
***Assimilate Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) (FY04)***
***Improve Cloud and Radiative Physics (FY05/FY06)***

-        **2001****	****     2002              2003                2004              2005**

**FY03 Actual**

**FY03 Actual**

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
FY2003 Anomaly Correlation Scores Continue 3 Year Improvement Trend 
7.1% improvement since 2000 in NH, 10.5% improvement since 2000 in SH
AC Score increased from .757 to .811 since 2000 in NH;  AC Score increased from .717 to .792 since 2000 in SH
Since 2000, steady .02 Improvement/Year in NH and .04 Improvement/Year in SH
Anomaly correlation is universally accepted as a standard score by international weather modeling centers and the World Meteorological Organization.
Has a maximum value of 1.0 (corresponding to a perfect depiction of the location of all major weather systems) 
Score above 0.6 is considered useful skill by the international modeling community. 
Supports NOAA Strategic Plan Goal 3: Serve Society’s Needs for Weather and Water Information
Strategy: Understand and Describe
Anomaly Correlation: Measures the ability of a numerical forecast to represent the general weather patterns of high pressure ridges and low pressure troughs, and the locations and strengths of fronts and major storms.  
Control model: Version of the global model used in 1995 
Graph shows the numbers averaged over a year for the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the percent improvement of the operational model over the control model
Cumulative Score through 4 quarters (NH: 81.1, SH: 79.2); FY03 Projection (NH: 82.0; SH: 79.5) FY03 values up 2.3% over FY02 in NH; FY03 values up 1.5% over FY02 in the SH (continues steady increase since 2000)
FY03 Projection missed by 1% (.09) in NH and by 0.4% (.03) in the SH 
NH:  These scores are highly variable and are generally higher in winter months (1st/2nd Qtr) and lower in summer months (3rd/4th Qtr)
Weather patterns are more cohesive, and their movements are dominated by stronger and easier to predict wind flow in the winter than in the summer
 Scores are expected to improve by 3-4% in the next 3 years, which is a significant increase
Funding: Outyear numbers include an estimated 3% inflation
 Includes following Environmental Modeling Center NTOPS Activities: Forecast System Maintenance, Forecast System Development, Global Satellite Data Assimilation, Physical Parameterization Development, Spectral Model Development, Earth System Modeling Framework, Customer Service and Community Interface, Supercomputing at NCEP Central Operations
Timeline/Next Steps:
High Performance Computer Upgrades
Next Computer Upgrade planned for June 2004 (only leaves 4th Qtr 2004 to reflect additional improvements in skill score)
 Improve Data Assimilation/Modeling
Horizontal resolution (increased from 210km in 1995 to 75km in 2000, to 55 km in Oct., 2002 and have plans to improve to 45km in 2005, and 40km in 2008 (2005/2008)
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) -  This data is currently being evaluated, expect assimilation in analysis by 3rd Qtr FY04 if assessment warrants
Physics upgrades (cloud analysis and radiative transfer) (2005/2006)
Issues:
Identify computing resources to support data assimilation through JCSDA
FY04 Senate Mark zeroes out backup computer

## Strategic Plan Metrics

|  |     2001 |  | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NH Operational |  | .771 | .793 | .811 | .820 | .830 |
| NH Control |  | .701 | .715 | .721 | .720 | .720 |
| NH % Improvement |  | 9.9% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 15% |
| SH Operational |  | .743 | .780 | .792 | .810 | .820 |
| SH Control |  | .621 | .669 | .668 | .670 | .670 |
| SH % Improvement |  | 19.6% | 16.6% | 18.6% | 20.8% | 22% |
| Budget  ($M) |  | $1.2 | $1.5 | $1.6 | $1.7 | $1.7 |

**5 Day Global Weather Model Performance **
**(Anomaly Correlation at 500mb)**

**FY03 Actual**

**FY03 Actual**

**>>**

**Notes:**
The values plotted on these charts are computed over a fiscal year

## Strategic Plan Metrics

|  | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Budget ($M) | 5.2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.8 |

**Yearly Average 48 Hour Track Forecast Error**
**Atlantic Basin**

_**48 Hour Track Forecast Error**_

_**Timeline/Next Steps**_

_**Issues**_

_**Funding**_

**Hurricane Model Upgrades: **
***Increased vertical resolution (from 18 to 42 levels) (FY03)***
***Increased horizontal resolution (from 18km to 6 km) (FY10)***
***Improved physics (FY03 +)****** ***
**Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades (FY03/04)**
**Hurricane WRF (FY06)**
**Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Projects (FY03 +)**

**Hurricane Intensity Forecast Accuracy**

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
Chart shows 48 hour track error for hurricanes and tropical storms
Exceeded FY03 goal by 21 nautical miles; (Goal: 120nm; Preliminary Actual: 99nm )
 GFDL Hurricane model improvements made for 2003 season included an increase in vertical resolution from 18 to 42 levels and improvements to the way in which convection (an important part of hurricane formation) and the lowest layer of the atmosphere are modeled.
Based on 198 forecasts made for 14 named storms (6 of which were hurricanes)
Third year in a row that a new record has been set at 48 hr.
First year (in recent years) that the actual has deviated significantly from the trendline (see multi-year chart), but it has happened in the past (e.g. 1979, 1988)
Budget Information:
  Includes Tropical Prediction Center Operating budget, Hurricane Modeling Activities of the Environmental Modeling Center, Supercomputing at NCEP Central Operations
 Does not include efforts from OAR’s U.S. Weather Research Program and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), NESDIS satellites, or indirect costs.
 Note: Total budget for research and hurricanes is closer to $12.0M, including $1.8M for USWRP, $2.8M for AMOL research, and $0.6M for GFDL (direct costs)
Timeline/Next Steps:
Hurricane Model Upgrades
GFDL Hurricane model improvements made for 2003 season 
GFDL Hurricane Model Horizontal Resolution Upgrades:  from current 18km to 12 km in FY06, 8km in FY08 and 6 km in FY10 (dependent on sufficient computer resources)
GFDL model improvements for 2004 season include improvements in land surface coupling and cloud microphysics
Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades
$13M (8.4M in ’03 and 4.6M in ’04) in G-IV instrument upgrades to provide 3-D observations of hurricane wind structure from outflow layer to the surface.  Represents pioneering effort.  No where else in the world are measurements like this available.
First generation Hurricane Weather Research Forecast model expected in FY06 (USWRP supports Hurricane WRF project)
High resolution coupled with land, ocean and air, will make use of advanced observations for large scale atmosphere (winds, moisture and temperature) and oceans (SSTs, wave heights)
Will have nested wave forecast capability
Land model will be coupled to NOAA surface hydrology models to forecast inland flooding
Will support advanced modeling of physical processes.
Joint Hurricane Test bed Projects (supported by USWRP)
Nine active projects in 2003/2004 including:
Dynamical Model Track Prediction Evaluation Expert
GFDL Hurricane Model Transition to Operations
Operational Targeting to Improve Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity at Landfall
Issues:
 Hurricane Intensity Forecast Accuracy
 Hurricane track forecasts are improving at a better rate than hurricane intensity forecasts
 Improving hurricane intensity is a US Weather Research Program (USWRP) priority
 Additional resources needed to focus on this hurricane intensity issue

## Strategic Plan Metrics

| Annual Goal |  | 142 | 120 | 115 | 108 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Actual | 126 | 122 | 99 |  |  |
| Budget ($M) | $5.2 | $6.4 | $6.6 | $6.8 | $6.8 |

**   ****Yearly Average 48 Hour Track Forecast Error**
**Atlantic Basin**

**>>**

## Strategic Plan Metrics

**Actual**

**Goal**

**Yearly Average 48 Hour Track Forecast Error**
**Atlantic Basin**

**<<**

## Strategic Plan Metrics

|  | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Budget ($K) | 15.0 | 15.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |

_**Number of StormReady Communities**_

_**Timeline/Next Steps**_

_**Issues**_

_**Funding**_

**Increased workload on communities combined with limited resources**
***Homeland Security has become the highest priority for Emergency Managers and communities***

**StormReady/TsunamiReady Communities**

**900 StormReady communities (FY07)**
**Continue to promote StormReady to Emergency  Managers and community officials (Ongoing)**
**Develop new StormReady promotional materials (Ongoing)**

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
 Supports NOAA Strategic Plan Goal 3: Serve Society’s Needs for Weather and Water Information
 Strategy: Engage, Advise and Inform
 Measure of Success: Increased number of communities with plans in place to act on weather warnings and to reduce the impacts of coastal hazards
 Graph depicts the cumulative number of StormReady communities established from FY01-FY05
 We exceeded our FY03 goal:
4th Quarter Actual: 43; 645 cumulative (FY03 Goal: 565 cumulative communities)
Funding:
 Funding for StormReady is approximately $20K per year, plus time devoted to the program by Warning and Coordination Meteorologists (WCMs) and NWS Headquarters personnel
 Printing of StormReady materials and displays
 Annual StormReady Advisory Board Meeting
 Program Support
Timeline/Next Steps:
 Goal for FY04 is total of 750 StormReady communities and an additional 75 in FY05, an additional 50 in FY06 and 25 in FY07 for a total of 900 in FY07
 Continue to promote StormReady to emergency managers and community officials (Ongoing)
 Develop new StormReady outreach/promotional materials for local WCMs to provide to emergency managers and community officials
 Other activities: 
 combine the TsunamiReady and StormReady applications into one application
 purchase two StormReady table top displays for each region to be used at emergency management conferences and StormReady recognition ceremonies
Issues:
 Homeland Security is higher priority: Emergency managers are focusing limited resources on Homeland Security; StormReady is lower priority now than it was 2 years ago
 Workload for communities combined with limited resources: 
 Grass roots nature of the program requires a great deal of personal interaction between local WCMs and emergency managers, limiting the number of communities they can establish
 Many counties/cities do not have the resources (finances, people, time) they need to meet guidelines required to be a StormReady community
Background:
 StormReady is a grass roots program designed to improve a community’s ability to prepare severe weather events
 The program began in 1999 with 7 communities
 To be recognized as StormReady, a community must meet the following guidelines:
 Establish a 24-hour warning point and emergency operations center
 Have more than one way to receive severe weather warnings and alert the public
 Create a system that monitors local weather conditions
 Promote the importance of public readiness through community seminars
 Develop a formal hazardous weather plan

## Strategic Plan Metrics

|  | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 |  |  |  | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Goal (Cumulative) |  | - | 565 |  |  |  | 750 | 825 |
| Actual  (Cumulative) | 246 | 490 | 524 | 562 | 602 | 645 | N/A | N/A |
| Budget ($K) | 15.0 | 15.0 | 20.0 |  |  |  | 20.0 | 20.0 |

**StormReady/TsunamiReady Communities**

**>>**

## Strategic Plan Metrics

|  | FY01 | FY02 | FY03 | FY04 | FY05 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| AHPS ($M) |  1.0 |  1.5 |  6.0 |  6.1 |  6.1 |

**Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service **
**(AHPS) Implementation**

_**AHPS Implementation**_

_**Timeline/Next Steps**_

_**Issues**_

_**Funding**_

**FY 2004 Conference Mark reduces AHPS to 21% below FY 2003 funding**
**Performance metrics**

** ****50% complete in FY 2006**
** ****100% complete in FY 2012**

**  ****AHPS will provide $766M in economic benefits each year following National implementation**

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
Performance
 Supports NOAA Mission Goal 3: Service Society’s Needs for Weather and Water Information
 We met our FY03 Goal (717 forecast locations, 17.9 percent)
 Will be completed by FY2012 with President’s Budget approval (4,011 forecast locations)
The metric (percentage of AHPS locations implemented) represents all AHPS implementation activities:
 Fine tune (calibrate) forecast models to local conditions
 Enhance and deploy proven science tools
 Deliver user-friendly, web-accessible products
 Communicate and educate forecasters and NOAA customers on the use of the new services
 The metric is in the existing and draft NWS Strategic Plans  (not a GPRA nor NOAA Strategic Plan metric)
 Additional metrics will be developed
Timeline/Next Steps (Schedule) and Funding (Cost)
  FY00 (initial funding): $1M began Upper Mississippi and Ohio River Basins
  FY01: $1M continued implementation in Upper Mississippi and Ohio River Basins
  FY02: $1.5M continuation in these areas and expansion in Northeast 
  FY03: $6 M continued these areas with expansion in Southeast
  FY04 and beyond: implementation activities occur throughout the United States 
  FY12: Complete AHPS implementation (4,011 forecast locations)
Benefits
AHPS will provide $766M in economic benefits each year following National implementation 
($243 in flood loss reduction and $523 in water resource benefits), National Hydrologic Warning Council, May 2002
Issues
 Performance Metrics
 In addition to the number AHPS forecast points, new metrics are being developed to quantify the accuracy of the new short- to long-range probabilistic forecast information.

Backup Information:
  AHPS builds upon NOAA’s infrastructure to provide:
  Flash-flood to seasonal forecasts for freshwater (river and lake levels)
  Forecast certainty
  Flood-forecast area mapping
  Low-flow and drought products
  AHPS is a program with a total budget of $60M 
    ($35M Field Implementation; $23M Science/Software Enhancements; and $2M Training and Outreach) 

## Strategic Plan Metrics

**Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service **
**(AHPS) Implementation**

|  | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| % Implemented Goal |  | 8.7 | 17.9 | 30.6 | 42.2 |
| % Implemented Actual | 4.0 | 8.8 | 17.9 | N/A | N/A |
| Budget $M) |  1.0 |  1.5 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 |

**>>**

## Strategic Plan Metrics

**Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service **
**(AHPS) Implementation**

**<<**

## Strategic Plan Metrics

_**Aviation Forecast Accuracy and FAR**_

_**Timeline/Next Steps**_

_**Issues**_

_**Funding**_

**Aviation Forecast Accuracy and **
**False Alarm Rate (FAR)**

**Obtain water vapor real time data to improve Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) model guidance (FY03-09)**
**Develop and deploy TAF specific forecaster preparation tools (Version 1.0 – FY03, Version 2.0 – FY04)**
**Develop and implement new ceiling/visibility forecast model tools (FY05)**
**Develop and improve forecaster TAF training  (First course released FY03 – Additional courses in development**

**2-6 hour convection forecasts recognized as one of most difficult**
**FAA funding separate NCAR and MIT research efforts to improve forecast capability**
**First generation ceiling/visibility forecast model guidance not expected to be fielded until FY05 **

-        **FY01****	****      FY02               FY03               FY04               FY05**

|  | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Budget ($M) | 66.7 | 69.2 | 70.6 | 73.3 | 75.5 |
| Aviation Initiative ($M) | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 |

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
 Supports NOAA Strategic Plan Goal 4: Support the Nation’s Commerce with Information for Safe, Efficient, and Environmentally Sound Transportation
 This is a new GPRA measure for FY03; now based on 3 miles visibility and 1000ft. ceiling (3/1000), related to Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) conditions; occurs 10% - 15% of the time
 Previous measure was based on 1/4 mile visibility and 200ft. Ceiling, and occurred only less than 0.5% of the time 
Accurately forecasting the transition between Visual Flight Rule and IFR conditions significantly improve general and commercial aviation flight planning capabilities, improving both flight safety and efficiencies
 We exceeded our FY03 annual goals; FY03 Actuals: Accuracy: 47.5% (Higher is better); FAR: 63.6%  (Lower is better); FY03 Goals: Accuracy: 45%; FAR: 71%
More than 5% improvement in forecast accuracy and 10% improvement in false alarm rate in FY03
 This measure has significant seasonal variability; performance tends to be worse in the summer months
 During the summer, there are fewer events for ceiling and visibility forecasts, and the events that do occur are convective events, which are more difficult to forecast.
Funding:
 Includes: Aviation Weather Center, Alaska Aviation Unit, ASOS and Radiosonde components, percentage of  forecasters at WFOs
 Aviation initiative will fund 2003-2005
 $2.5M per year for FY03-FY04
 $3.5M per year for FY05 to fund expansion of data, products and training

Timeline/Next Steps:
 Obtain water vapor real time data to improve Terminal Areodrome Forecast (TAF)  model guidance (FY03-FY09)
 Develop and deploy TAF specific forecaster preparation tools (Aviation Forecast Preparation System (AVNPS)) Version 1.0 in FY03, Version 2.0 and 3.0 in FY04
 Version 1.0: Improved monitoring capability for the WFO; improved editing and preparation; national deployment in FY03 (was completed)
 Version 2.0 and 3.0: Use of smart tools such as conditional climatology and local knowledge to generate more timely amendments; Incorporating local applications from WFOs; Part of the individual forecast verification improvement; Utilizing radar and satellite data for monitoring
 Develop and Implement new ceiling and visibility model tools (FY05)
 Make use of the aviation weather research community; new model developed by NCAR through the FAA
 Develop and improve forecaster TAF training (first course released in FY03; additional courses in development
 Distance learning aviation course in FY03 discusses fog forecasting, user’s needs and other specific issues; Currently, over 100 (of 122) aviation focal points have started this course.
Issues:
 2-6 Hour convection forecasts is recognized as one of the most difficult
 FAA funding, in excess of $20M annually, separate NCAR and MIT research efforts to improve aviation forecast capability
 First generation ceiling/visibility forecast model guidance not expected to be fielded until FY05
 This is why targets in FY05 are not significantly higher; after the model is implemented, we anticipate outyear targets to increase

## Strategic Plan Metrics

|  | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 |  |  |  | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| FAR Goal | New Measure | New Measure | 71.0 |  |  |  | 70.0 | 68.0 |
| FAR Actual | 46.0 | 52.0 | - | - | 62.1 | 63.6 | N/A | N/A |
| Accuracy Goal | New Measure | New Measure | 45.0 |  |  |  | 46.0 | 46.0 |
| Accuracy Actual | N/A | 45.0 | - | - | 48.4 | 47.5 | N/A | N/A |
| Budget ($M) | 66.7 | 69.2 | 70.6 |  |  |  | 73.3 | 75.5 |
| Aviation Initiative ($M) | - | - | 2.5 |  |  |  | 2.5 | 3.5 |

**Aviation Forecast Accuracy and **
**False Alarm Rate (FAR)**

**>>**

## Strategic Plan Metrics

**National Air Quality Forecast Capability**

_**National Air Quality Forecast **_

_**Timeline/Next Steps**_

_**Issues/Comments**_

_**Funding**_

**Initial Operating Capability: Issue 1-Day Ozone Forecast for NE U.S. (FY04)**
**Issue 1-Day Ozone Forecast Nationally (FY08)**
**Issue 1-Day Particulate Matter Forecast for NE U.S. (FY08)**
**Issue 1-Day Particulate Matter Forecast Nationally  (FY13)**
**Extend Ozone Forecasts to Day 2 and Beyond (FY13)**

**Coordination with EPA**
**Research funding for particulate matter forecasts**
**Definition of Performance Metrics**
**Optimal Observing Infrastructure**

***Success Criteria:***
**Forecast Accuracy: 90%**
**On-Time Delivery of Forecasts: 94%**

|  | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NWS Budget ($M) | - | - | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
Key Message of Slide:

 Success Criteria

 Funding

 Timeline/Next Steps

 Issues/Comments

## Congressional Reports

**Etheridge Report**

| Action | Due Date | Completion Date |
| --- | --- | --- |
| NWS Forwards to NOAA | Not Established | 4/10/03 |
| NOAA Forwards to DOC | - | 4/23/03 |
| DOC Forwards to OMB | - | 5/2/03 |
| OMB Provides Clearance | - | 7/03 |
| DOC Forwards to Congress | January 29, 2003 | 7/25/03 |

**Notes:**
Talking Points:
 Bill was signed October 29, 2002, and due to Congress January 29, 2003
 Is complete; DOC forwarded to Congress on July 25, 2003.