# Presentation: 519532

## Use of NCEP Meteorological Model Predictions for HPAC Applications Jeff McQueen, Dusan Jovic, Binbin Zhou, Sundara Gopalakrishnan,Marina Tsidulko, Jun Du and  Geoff DiMego NOAA/NWSNational Centers for Environmental PredictionEnvironmental Modeling CenterDecember 18, 2006

**Notes:**
Thanks to all team members for enduring this difficult upgrade to try and add more physics diversity to the SREF system
NCO for enduring the frequent corrections to the parallel system
SPC detailed evaluations

## National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

**Among the Nation’s leaders in providing global and national climate and weather analysis, forecasts and guidance**
**Develop and Improve numerical weather, climate, hydrological, space and ocean prediction systems**
**Applied research in data analysis, modeling and  product development **

## North American Model (NAM-WRF)

**North American Model (NAM)**
**Meso-Eta run 4x/day at 12 km**
**To 84 hours**

**North American Model (NAM)**
**Meso-Eta run 4x/day at 12 km**
**To 84 hours**

***North American Model (NAM) WRF run 4x/day at 12 km to 84 hours***

## Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) System

**Post Processors**

## HiResWindow Fixed-Domain Nested Runs

_**FOUR**_** routine runs made at the same time every day**
**00Z : ****Alaska & Hawaii**** **
**06Z : ****Western**** & ****Puerto Rico**
**12Z : ****Central & Hawaii**
**18Z : ****Eastern**** & ****Puerto Rico**
**Everyone gets daily high resolution runs **_*if & only if*_** hurricane runs are **_**not**_** needed**

- _[http://](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/)__[www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/)__[/](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/)_

## HiResWindow Fixed-Domain Nested RunsProposed ~4km run Configuration

_**FOUR**_** ****routine runs made at the same time every day**
**00Z : ECentral & Hawaii **
**06Z : Alaska  & Puerto Rico**
**12Z : ECentral & Hawaii**
**18Z : WCentral & Puerto Rico**
**Everyone gets daily high resolution runs **_*if & only if*_** hurricane runs are **_**not**_** needed**

- _[http://](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/)__[www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/)__[/](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/)_

## Global Forecast System

| Run Slot #/day | Mission & (Notes) | F Hrs | Resolution
(hor/ver) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Global Forecast System (GFS)
4/day | Global general weather and aviation guidance to 15 days (winds, temp, rainfall)
Boundary + initial conditions for NAM, Ocean models
Initial conditions for ensemble generation
Supports Model Output Statistics 
Hurricane tracks | 384 hr | 35 km/ 64l
55 km/ 42l after 84 hr
75 km/28l beyond 180 hr |
| Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) 
4/day | Provides best guess for GFS analysis, verification & validation
(3-D Variational 6-hr update frequency with digital filter) | 9 hr
with
6 hr update | 35 km/ 64l |
| Global Ensemble
4/day | Probabilistic rainfall (QPF) and general weather to 15 days
(14 members with initial condition perturbations generated from Ensemble Transform Technique) | 360 hr | 100km/28l
 |

## Additional NCEP products with applications for AT&D

**On-Demand Homeland Security Nests**
***On-demand real-time High Resolution WRF 4km Grid Runs***
***26 pre-defined nests***
**Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis system (RTMA)**
***2-D Variable data assimilation at the surface ***
***hourly analyses at 5 km resolution***
**Analysis Of Record**
***Downscaled  from NDAS analysis to provide high resolution climatology than 32 km Regional Reanalyses***

## Provision of Additional Products 

**NCEP Products to DTRA-MDS**
***Global Forecast System  1⁄2 degree 3 hrly  predictions to 16 days***
***Global Ensemble Mean and Spread files to 16 days***
***Short Range Ensemble  to 84 hours (4x/day)***
***NAM-WRF high resolution 12 km CONUS and North American grids***
***Added Cartesian vertical velocities, PBL height, eddy diffusivities, u* to grids***
***Test ensemble wind variance and covariance files***

## WRF Output to improve HPAC coupling

**Instantaneous and *****time-averaged***** surface sensible heat, latent heat, and momentum fluxes**
**Roughness length, vegetation types and fraction**
**Shelter level, skin, and soil temperature, moisture, and wind **
**Cloud fraction**
**Mixing length**
**3 D Wind, temperature, and specific humidity**
**3 D TKE **
**3 D eddy diffusivity of heat**
**PBL height**
*Time-averaged  winds, TKE and mixing lengths*
*Eddy energy dissipation rates*
*3-D eddy diffusivity of momentum*
***3-D wind variance from ensemble***
*LSV proportional to wind variance ?*

**Notes:**
Each with its own set of uncertainties esp as we get into the pbl no-mans land

## NAM PBL evaluationusing TEXAQS06 profilers

**NAM**
**PSD Longview Profiler**
**SHV Raob**

*Use of profilers as ground truth for raob derived Zi *

## NCEP AT&D Focus for HPAC

**Improved Coupling of Mesoscale Models w/ HPAC **
***Special real-time High Resolution Nested Grid Runs (eg: Torino Olympics)***
***Additional turbulence Fields output to NCEP GRIB files and to DTRA servers***
***Evaluation of WRF turbulence characteristics with PSU  & Hanna Cons.***
***Development of a real-time PBL height and cloud cover verification system***
**Development and Testing of a High Resolution Ensemble Prediction Systems **
**NCEP WRF ensemble breeding system**
**Uses both ARW and NMM cores and physics suites**
**Can be initialized from GDAS or NDAS land or Atmos. states****	**
***Began testing a 10 member WRF HREF***
***Providing experimental ensemble wind variance fields needed to drive HPAC uncertainty calculations***
**Incorporation of probabilistic verification for Ensemble System evaluation**
***Deterministic FVS developments: pbl hgt & cloud cover verification***
***Ranked Histograms, spread, statistical consistency, outlier diagrams added for ensemble verification ***

## High Impact on-demand Nests

## Torino OlympicsWRF nested runs (Dusan Jovic)

**WRF-NMM V2.1 using H-WRF nested grid configurations**
**24 h forecasts at 00 and 12 UTC**
**90 mins w/ 64 tasks**
**4 km Alps nest w/in 12 km Europe Domain**
**50 levels**
**Initialized with 1⁄2 degree GFS Pressure grids**
**Ferrier Microphysics******** No convective Param.**
**MYJ TKE, NOAH LSM**

## Torino OlympicsNCEP 4 km Domain

**Full 4 km WRF Nested Grid Domain**

**Zoomed view around Torino**

**Notes:**
Allows us to look at the impact of domain size on model forecasts: 
Do you run a small 4 km domain with a finer mesh or a larger 4 km domain
We noticed that the prediction of the med. Low was different between our runs and PSU

## Torino OlympicsSnow Storm Forecasts (3h prcip)00 UTC Feb. 17, 2006 18 h Forecasts

**WRF-NMM 4km  Zoom**

**MM5 4 km **

## Torino OlympicsFebruary 18, 2006 case temperature

## Torino OlympicsFebruary 18, 2006 case winds

**Some down valley **
**Flows captured**
**Mediterranean low is better captured in larger domain**
**Synoptic-orographic interactions are important**

## HPAC multi-model simulationsMM5 & WRF

**WRF & MM5 Plumes**
** ****near Torino Olympics**
**Blue lines: HPAC **
**uncertainties w/ constant**
**large scale variances **
**Courtesy Pat Hayes,**
**DTRA-NGC**
**Feb. 22, 00Z release**
** ****(Case 5)**

## NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast SystemWRF members  added : 21 multi-model members

| Core | 3 NMM members |  3 ARW members |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Horizontal | 40km  | 45 km |
| Vertical | 50 hybrid sigma-P levels | 35 Mass levels |
| Adv/Physics Time Step
Computer usage | 110/600 sec
(4 nodes/member) | 108/200 sec
(5 nodes/member) |
| Diffusion | Increased Smagorinsky deformation | Vertical damping |
| Physics | NOAH LSM
MYJ TKE PBL
BMJ Convection
Ferrier Microphysics | NOAH LSM
MRF 1st order PBL
Kain-Fritsch Convection
Ferrier Microphysics |

## Ensemble Products to DTRA-MDS

_**Means/ Spread(uncertainties)**_
**Heights at ****1000****, 850, 700, 500, 250 mb**
**U+V at ****1000****, 850, ****700, 500****, 250 mb & 10 m **
**Temperature 850, 700, ****500 mb & 2 m**** **
**Dew Point (RH) 850, 700, 500 mb & 2 m**
**QPF at 3, 6, 12 and 24 hour totals**
**12-hr Snowfall**
**Sea Level Pressure**
**Precipitable Water**
_**Probabilistic Fields**_
**3-hr/6-hr QPF****	****	****	****	****GE .01”, .25”, .50”, 1.0” **
**12-hr/24-hr QPF ****	****	****	****GE 01”, .25”, .50”, 1.0”, 2.0” **
**12-hr Snowfall ****	****	****	****	****GE 1”, ****4”, 8”, 12”**** (have 2.5, 5, 10, 20”)**
**Temperature at 2 m & 850 mb****	****LE 0****o****C **
**10 m Wind**** ****	****	****	****	****GE 25 kt, 34 kt, 50 kt**
**CAPE ****	****	****	****	****	****GE 500, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000**
**Lifted Index ****	****	****	****	****LE 0, -4, -8**
**Surface Visibility ****	****	****	****LE 1 mi, 3 mi**
**Cloud Ceiling* ****	****	****	****	****LE 500 ft, 1000 ft, 3000 ft**
**Probability of precipitation types (have rain, frozen, & freezing)**
**6-hr/12-hr/24-hr QPF Best Category**

**Notes:**
Cloud ceiling put Binbin’s code into Eta post then ensemble product generator

## Ensemble Covariance Products

**EKE=0.5*(UU+VV+WW), where **
**UU, VV, WW are ensemble variances**** **

***Binbin Zhou, EMC***** **

## Ensemble Covariance ProductsDaily ensemble products

**EKE=0.5*(UUE+VVE+WWE)  **
**	****        ****N**
**UUE = 1/N ∑( U****m****ij ****- U****ij ****)****2**
**	****        ****N**
**VVE = 1/N ∑( V****m****ij ****- V****ij ****)****2**
**	****        ****N**
**UVE = 1/N ∑( U****m****ij ****- U****ij ****)****2 ****( V****m****ij ****- V****ij ****)****2**
**	****           ****N**
**WWE = 1/N ∑( W****m****ij ****- W****ij ****)****2**
**Ensemble mean sensible heat flux**
**Ensemble mean latent heat flux**
**U and V spread**
**	****          **
**	****               **

***Binbin Zhou, EMC***** **

- _[http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF_avia/TEST/web/html/variance.html](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF_avia/TEST/web/html/variance.html)_

## NCEP’s FVS Verification System

**Input observations are from NCEP operational PREPBUFR files which include 1) radiosonde & dropsonde Z, temp, wind & moisture; 2) surface land & marine P, temp, wind, moisture observations; 3) ACARS & conventional aircraft wind, temp [moisture], and 4) Profiler winds. **
**Verified Fields include *****temperature, wind and moisture fields on pressure and shelter levels.***
**Recently added *****sensible weather (eg: Visibility) , wind shear, and PBL height***
**Grid verification**** *****of cloud cover using AFWA cloud cover products***

- _[New  FVS On-line System](http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/users/loughe/projects/NCEP_verif/index.cgi)_
- _[Web-based MYSQL Database](http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/users/loughe/projects/NCEP_verif/index.cgi)_

## SREF Performance48 h  Wind forecast Spread (August 2006 )

**CONUS    **
**EAST-21**
**West-21****	****	****      **

***Spread is largest in East and near Tropopause***

**Notes:**
Forecast Spread:  Temp West spread is very small compared to East esp 

## Statistical Consistency (August 2006)48 hour Forecast Winds

**Statistical Consistency (August 2006)****48 hour Forecast Winds**

***Ratio: Mean Squared Error / Variance***
**best ~ 1 (Buizza, et al. 1999)**
***SREF-21 improved***
***WRF subset yields lowest        statistical consistency            compared to Eta subsets***

**Notes:**
MSE/VAR=1
Constistency very large at early time.  MSE is too large and variance is too small
Eta members have very large errors vs spread at upper altitudes.

## SREF Operational PerformanceOutlier Percentage 48 h forecasts (August 2006) 

**SREF Operational Performance****Outlier Percentage ****48 h forecasts (August 2006)**** **

***Outlier percentage reduced for SREF/21 system***
***WRF sub-member  agree best w/ obs as compared to Eta and RSM sub-members***

**2 m Temperature**

**10 m  Wind**

**Notes:**
Talagrand each sub member has similar performance.  Perhaps, rsm (green) shows some imprrovement
In upper level winds as compared to the Eta system.
First set...ensemble were warmer than the obs.
2nd set...ensembles were within the analysis range...the higher the better
3rd set....enmbles cooler than the obs
4th set....outlier percentabe....WRF-subs (cyan) have the lowest compared to Eta and RSM...agrees with SPC results

## Met. Ensembles For ATD

**For ATD: physics perturbation techniques are promising**
***PBL parameterization***
***Land Surface Model specifications***
***Convective parameterizations***
***Stochastic physics efforts***
**Will also need IC perturbations esp.  for strong synoptically forced events**
**Postprocessing**
***Bias correct winds, temp, rh, precip***
***Use ensemble wind variance as estimate of LSV (Wind error correlated with Wind variance, Coielle, 2005)***
***Reforecasting Project***
***Cluster ensemble members to drive Scipuff most likely scenarios  (COSMO-LEPS approach)***

## Dispersion Ensemble Configurations1. One HPAC run (Ens. Median/variance)2. One HPAC run for each member3. One HPAC run for main clusters 

**Cluster analysis can chose a smaller set of members statistically different from one another that correspond to the daily weather pattern.**

**AQFS**

**SREF/HREF**

**Mean**

**Cluster**

## With nam soil moisture (NMM)

- With gfs soil moisture (NMM)

- T2m diff (namSM – gfsSM, NMM)

_**Soil Moisture Perturbations**_
- Within WRF_NMM model:
- Impact on T2m is significant!

## Met Ensembles for ATDHREF 12 km

**10 WRF members configured for Eastern U.S. **
***12 km DX, 48 hour forecasts, 2x/day (06 & 18 Z)***
***5 WRF ARW members (1 control, 2 breeding pairs)***
**Physics: YSU PBL, Kain-Fritsch Convection,  RRTM radiation**
***5 WRF NMM members (1 control, 2 breeding pairs)***
**Physics: MYJ TKE, Betts-Miller-J convection, GFDL radiation**
**Synoptic diversity: LBC & Breeding**
***Breeding: 12 hour forecast differences to drive IC perturbations***
***LBC – 3 hrly : ***
**GENS 1-4 ET members for 2 NMM  perturbed pairs**
**GENS 5-8  ET members for 2 ARW perturbed pairs**
**GENS Ctl for NMM and ARW control**

## Met Ensembles for ATDHREF 12 km mean/spread

**2 m Temperature**
** ****mean/spread**

**850 mb Temperature**
** ****mean/spread**

## Met Ensembles for ATDHREF 12 km mean/spread

**10 m Winds**

**850 mb Winds**

***10 m wind NMM-Ctl***

## Future Work

**Evaluate 12 km Relocatable HREF System****	**
***Add pbl & LSM diversity to initial condition diversity system***
***Compare against SREF, GENS, ARPS 4 km for NCEP/SPC spring program***
**High Resolution Testing**
***Test the addition of a 4 km nest to HREF NMM control***
***Evaluate with DCNET and URBANET data***
**Provision of Products**
***Provision of ensemble median, wind variance and length scales to MDS for SCIPUFF sensitivity testing***
**Complete evaluation of WRF turbulence & PBL fields for coupling with HPAC w/ PSU**
**Improved probabilistic verification package**

## BACKUPS

## SREF Performance48 h forecast Spread (Nov. 2005)

**SREF Performance*****48 h forecast Spread (Nov. 2005*****)**

**UPA Winds**

**UPA Temp**

**CONUS****	****	****      **
**CONUS-21****	****	****     **
**EAST-15**
**EAST-21**
**West-15**
**West-21****	****	****      **

***SREF-21 improved over SREF-15***
*** ******Temperature:***
***Spread is smallest in West and near Tropopause***
***Winds:***
*** ******Spread is greatest in West and near Tropopause***

**UPA Winds**

**Notes:**
Forecast Spread:  Temp West spread is very small compared to East esp 

## SREF Operational PerformanceOutlier Percentage 48 h forecasts (November 2005) 

**SREF Operational Performance****Outlier Percentage ****48 h forecasts (November 2005)**** **

**850 mb  Temp**

***Outlier percentage reduced for SREF/21 system***
***WRF sub-member  agree best w/ obs as compared to Eta and RSM sub-members***

**Notes:**
Talagrand each sub member has similar performance.  Perhaps, rsm (green) shows some imprrovement
In upper level winds as compared to the Eta system.
First set...ensemble were warmer than the obs.
2nd set...ensembles were within the analysis range...the higher the better
3rd set....enmbles cooler than the obs
4th set....outlier percentabe....WRF-subs (cyan) have the lowest compared to Eta and RSM...agrees with SPC results

## ARL HYSPLIT Web Interface

** ****Web based interface that allow user to customize:**
**Source location**
**Source strength **** **
**Deposition effects**
** ****Release Duration**
** ****Forecast Length**
** ****Graphical Display **
**ESRI GIS **
**Google Earth Interface**

## ARL HYSPLIT Web InterfaceGoogle Earth Display

## Torino OlympicsSnow Storm Forecasts (3h prcip)00 UTC Feb. 17, 2006 18 h Forecasts

**WRF-NMM 4km  Zoom**

**MM5 4 km **

## FVS VERIFICATION

- Temperature

- RH

- NAM, WRF

- GFS

- Editbufr
- Prepfits
- Gridtobs

- VSDB RECORDS:

- SL1L2 STATISTICS

- FHO (threshold) STATISTICS

- SL1L2
- FHO

**FVS**

- Compute and plot:
- Bias
- RMSE
- Correlation
- .......
- Thread score
- Probability of detection
- ........

- Parameters:

- Domains:

- Statistic type:

- Winds

- Pressure/Heights

## ( from NMC/CMA, Y. Li)

## Torino OlympicsVenues and Mesonet Locations (D. Stauffer)

## IHOP May 29, 2002 case

## IHOP May 29, 2002 case

**12Z**

**20Z**

**04Z**

**12Z**

**Notes:**
Variability of boundary layer height during morning and evening transition times
Better way to calculate pbl height from mesoscale models ???

## Two field campaigns provide intensive observations for potential use in regional analysis

**2006 Texas Air Quality Study/Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study (8/1 - 9/30)**
**WAVES_2006: Water Vapor Validation Experiment – Satellite/Sondes in Beltsville, MD (7/17– 8/10) **

- Water Vapor Validation Experiment – Satellite/Sondes (WAVES_2006)

- Water Vapor Validation Experiment – Satellite/Sondes (WAVES_2006)

**Notes:**
The WAVES program made hourly ozone measurements as well as extensive meteorological observations. They have already identified an unusual secondary low front on August 2.

## IHOP May 29, 2002 case

** ****WRF-NMM Initialized from NDAS  at May 28, 2002, 12Z**
** ****4 km, 50 Level, 48 hour forecasts**
** ****Central U.S. Nest (260x410)**
** ****Mellor-Yamada-Janjic TKE**
** ****NOAH LSM**
** ****Ferrier Micro-physics**
** ****Betts-Miller-J Convection**

**Central Nest**