# Presentation: 235609

##  Solar Electricity Data Issues

**by Fred Mayes**,**E**nergy **I**nformation **A**dministration
**Presented to the American**
**Statistical Association Advisory Cmte.**
- October 19, 2007
-  _fred.mayes@eia.doe.gov_
- (202) 586-1508

## EIA Disclaimer

- * This is a working document prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in order to solicit advice and comment on statistical matters from the American Statistical Association Committee on Energy Statistics. This topic will be discussed at EIA's fall 2007 meeting with the Committee to be held October 18 and 19, 2007.

## Objectives of Presentation

- Show solar energy in context of U.S. energy picture (solar = solar thermal + PV)
- Issues for the Committee to consider
- Potential solutions
- Question time

## The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Nation's Energy Supply, 2005 

- Note:  Renewables and biomass include other non-renewable wastes.

**Notes:**
Copied from REA 2005

## Solar/PV data sources

- Electricity surveys, Forms EIA-906/920 (generation) and EIA-860 (capacity)
-    --  906/920, “Power Plant Report” (Monthly) and “Combined Heat and Power Plant Report” (Annual)
-     --  860, “Annual Electric Generator Report”
- ●  Provide central station generator info

## Solar/PV data sources (cont’d)

- Shipments of solar thermal panels, Form EIA-63A, “Annual Solar Thermal Collector Manufacturers Survey”
- Shipments of PV cells and modules, Form EIA-63B, “Annual Photovoltaic Module/ Cell Manufacturers Survey”

- Data on solar energy reported in EIA reports:
*■   **R**enewable **E**nergy **Annual**, Chapter 1 (Renewable Energy Trends) – *consumption & generation
*■  **REA**, Chapter 2 (**Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic Collector Manufacturing Activities) *
- See website, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/rea_data/rea_sum.html

## Solar Thermal

## Info:

- About 25% of energy input to “solar thermal” (S.T.) electricity plants is from natural gas.
- EIA allocates generation according to % fuel input.
- EIA determines capacity according to greatest fuel usage.

## Info (cont’d)

-   About 90% of solar thermal energy is for
-       swimming pool heating (until 2007).

## Photovoltaics (PV)

## About PV

- PV is inherently only to generate electricity.
- PV is used in both “on-grid” and “off-grid” applications.  Off-grid applications are numerous but tiny.
- PV is used “on-grid” both at central station generating facilities and in *distributed* applications (e.g., residential rooftop).

## About PV (cont’d)

- Until 2006, both PV “central station” and dispersed applications were very small.  Central station applications were over 20 years old.
- EIA collects electricity data only for plants > 1 MW capacity, whether “on-” or “off-grid.”   There are a lot of PV plants that are .3 - .8 MW.

## About PV (cont’d)

- EIA collects data on PV cell and module shipments / solar panels according to:
-    -- technical type
-    -- end use (e.g., grid-interactive)
-    -- market sector (e.g., residential)
-    -- recipient (e.g., wholesaler, end user)
-    --  export/domestic market...
- but*** ***_***not***_ cross-stratified by all above categories.

- Major market is exports  distribution of *domestic* shipments (e.g., by end use) is currently unknown.
-         -- We are solving this for 2007 and beyond
-              by a proposed change to the EIA-63
-            ** Collect *detailed* data (e.g., end use, market
-                    sector) only for domestic shipments.

## Slide 16

## About PV (cont’d)

- EIA _estimates_ PV-generated electricity outside the electric/CHP sector.
-     -- Use formula based upon estimated cumulative PV generating capacity in place, using EIA survey data on cells and modules shipped (EIA-63B survey):

- (Peak  KW _domestic_ shipped for past 20 yrs.) * (cap. Factor) *  hrs/yr.
-   =
- 455*0.275*365*24 for 2005

- PV residential energy =

- Through 2006, all estimated electricity is assigned to the _residential_ sector.  This could probably be changed if:
-    1.   End-use sector data can be found for
-    2.  We assume that foreign and domestic
-         sector shipments have identical end-
-         use sector distributions (history).

## PV Cell & Module Data

| Table 51.   Shipments of Photovoltaic Cells and Modules by Market Sector, End Use, and Type,  2005 |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| (Peak Kilowatts) |  |  |  |  |  |
| Sector and End Use | Crystalline Silicon a | Thin-Film Silicon | Concentrator Silicon | Other | 2005 Totalp |
| Market Sector |  |  |  |  |  |
|    Industrial | 21,674 | 525 | 0 | 0 | 22,199 |
|    Residential | 70,986 | 4,029 | 25 | 0 | 75,040 |
|    Commercial | 61,084 | 28,349 | 25 | 0 | 89,459 |
|    Transportation | 1,621 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1,621 |
|    Utility | 68 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 143 |
|    Governmentb | 8,034 | 20,649 | 0 | 0 | 28,683 |
|    Otherc | 9,498 | 274 | 0 | 0 | 9,772 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Total | 172,965 | 53,826 | 125 | 0 | 226,916 |

## PV Cell & Module Data (cont’d)

| Table 51.   Shipments of Photovoltaic Cells and Modules by Market Sector, End Use, and Type, 2005 |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| (Peak Kilowatts) |  |  |  |  |  |
| Sector and End Use | Crystalline Silicon a | Thin-Film Silicon | Concentrator Silicon | Other | 2005 Totalp |
| End Use |  |  |  |  |  |
|    Electricty Generation |  |  |  |  |  |
|      Grid Interactive | 126,157 | 42,217 | 100 | 0 | 168,474 |
|      Remote | 23,589 | 1,344 | 25 | 0 | 24,958 |
|    Communication | 8,507 | 159 | 0 | 0 | 8,666 |
|    Consumer Goods | 5,511 | 276 | 0 | 0 | 5,787 |
|    Transportation | 2,159 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,159 |
|    Water Pumping | 1,273 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1,343 |
|    Cells/Modules to OEMd | 2,008 | 9,669 | 0 | 0 | 11,677 |
|    Health |  |  |  |  |  |
|    Othere | 3,762 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 3,853 |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Total | 172,965 | 53,826 | 125 | 0 | 226,916 |

## How Well Does EIA know End Use?

- Knowledge of *domestic end use* of PV cells and modules comes from PV manufacturers
- PV manufacturers seldom sell to end users  **suppliers may not know end user**.
- 40% of production is exported

## Slide 22

| Table 48.   Distribution of Photovoltaic Cells and Modules, 2003-2005 |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Shipments (Peak Kilowatts) |  |  |
| Recipient | 2003 | 2004 | 2005p |
|  |  |  |  |
|  Wholesale Distributers | 65,477 | 106,400 | 130,086 |
|  Retail Distributers | 6,624 | 5,140 | 2,362 |
|  Exporters | 7,600 | 2,354 | 1,088 |
|  Installers | 11,733 | 34,779 | 67,437 |
|  End-Users | 8,286 | 1,029 | 3,142 |
|  Module Manufacturers | 8,738 | 11,868 | 15,347 |
|  Othera | 899 | 19,546 | 7,455 |
|  |  |  |  |
| Total | 109,357 | 181,116 | 226,916 |

## Status of PV Use

- Before 2006, virtually no PV cell and module shipments **or** solar thermal went to power plants > 1 MW capacity (e.g., SEGS s.t. plant opened in 1983).
- Starting in 2006, PV & solar thermal central station power plants are being built which will use a sizable percentage of the PV modules/ solar panels shipped.

***Q***:  *How do we avoid double-counting electricity that:*
-       1. we estimate for the residential sector, when
-        2. new PV/ S.T. central station plants >1 MW
-            will be reporting on EIA electricity forms?

- Possible solution:
-    1.  Send additional schedule of electricity Form EIA-860 (capacity) to solar/PV plants asking for construction method / quantity of electricity-producing equipment used.
-     2. Use energy formula to “back out” known new central station capacity.

- _Note_:  From other sources, we know that much of the output sold into the *domestic* “grid- interactive” sector for the “End Use” of electricity generation is for < 1 MW commercial facilities or for rooftop installation.  These facilities will _*not *_be captured by the EIA-860.  However, beginning next year the EIA-63B will capture domestic sector sales.

## Implications

-      -- Any installation under 1 MW is currently not double-counted, though we may be misclassifying the sector (e.g., transportation instead of residential).

## Summary of Questions

- Can/should EIA attempt to modify its estimation of  historical domestic non-electricity sector PV generation?
- If so, should EIA collect additional data on PV equipment use via EIA-860?
- How many years of domestic end use PV data are required to make estimates?