# Presentation: 722812

## Mesoscale Modeling Branch:Where We Are andWhere We’re Going

- Geoff DiMego
- geoff.dimego@noaa.gov
- 301-763-8000 ext7221
- 9 December 2008

**N**
**C**
**E**
**P**

**Where the Nation’s climate and weather services begin**

## Who We Are

- Government Scientists
- Tom Black
- Jun Du
- Dennis Keyser
- Ying Lin
- Geoff Manikin
- Ken Mitchell* – LSM Lead
- Jeff McQueen
- Dave Parrish
- Matt Pyle
- Eric Rogers
- Wan-Shu Wu
- <- Stacie Bender* (GWCMB)
- <- Hui-Ya Chuang* (GWCMB)
- Visiting Scientists
- Mike Ek
- Zavisa Janjic
- Fedor Mesinger*
- Yoshiaki Sato* - JMA
- Ratko Vasic

- Contractor Scientists
- Ed Colon*
- Brad Ferrier
- George Gayno*
- Ho-Chun Huang*
- Dusan Jovic*
- Dongchul Kim*
- Pius Lee
- Shun Liu
- Guang-Ping Lou
- Manuel Pondeca*
- Jim Purser*
- Perry Shafran
- Youhua Tang
- Marina Tsidulko
- Caterina Tassone
- Weiguo Wang
- Jeff Whiting*
- Vince Wong
- Binbin Zhou
- Julia Zhu*
- Yanqiu Zhu

- *personnel who are less than 100% working on MMB projects

## WHAT – i.e. T O P I C S

- Production Suite
- Observations Processing
- Marine Connections
- Legacy Stuff
**HiResWindow Upgrades & Plans **
**NAM / NDAS / DGEX March & December Updates & Plans**
**RTMA and DNG (aka smartinit) & Plans**
**SREF: 2008 Package ******** 2009 & Plans**
- Air Quality: Ozone & Smoke Guidance
- Other Projects

## NOAA’s NWS Model Production SuiteAll the “stuff” in BROWN is my worry

**Air Quality**

- WRF NMM
- WRF ARW

- Mostly
- Satellite
- +Radar

_**North American**_
_**Mesoscale**_
- WRF NMM

**North American Ensemble Forecast System**

**Hurricane **GFDL
- HWRF

**Global**
**Forecast**
**System**

**Dispersion**
- ARL’s HYSPLIT

**Severe Weather**

**Rapid Update**
**for Aviation**

**Climate**
**CFS**

- ~2B Obs / Day

**Short-Range**
**Ensemble Forecast**

**NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite****All the “stuff” in ****BROWN**** is my worry**

**MOM3**

**NOAH Land Surface Model**

- Coupled

**Global Data**
**Assimilation**

**Oceans**
- HYCOM
- WaveWatch III

- NAM+CMAQ

**Regional Data**
**Assimilation**

- WRF: NMM+ARW ETA, RSM

- GFS, Canadian Global Model

## Five Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over Fifteen Years (2000-2015)

- Count (Millions)

**Daily ****Satellite**** & ****Radar**** Observation Receipt Counts**

- 2000

- 1990

- 2015

**100 M obs**

**125 M obs**

**Level 2 Radar**

**210 M obs**

_**Observational Data Ingest**_Mostly Satellite & Radar

- Received Data

**Daily Percentage of Data**
**Ingested into Models**
**(Not Counting Radar)**

- Selected Data

**100%**

**7%**

- Assimilated Data

**1.7 B**

**17.3M**

**6.6M**

**2%**

- 2008 Data

- Received = All observations received operationally from providers
- Selected = Observations selected as suitable for use
- Assimilated = Observations actually used by models

**1.7 B obs**

- 2008

## DOPPLERRADARDATAWill it be an 800 lb gorilla?

- Now Processing Level II Archive-Quality NEXRAD-88D Data from ~130 Radar Sites
- Still Receiving Level II.5 super-obs (made onsite and 1st backup)
- Still Receiving Level III (aka NIDS 2nd backup)
- Still using VAD wind profiles

## Radar Processing in 2008

- NSSL Level II Radar QC package (Shun Liu)
- Combined radial wind and reflectivity QC
- Not able to deal with new higher-res Build 10, so required NCO to make Build 8 lookalike files
- Now includes generation of national 3D reflectivity mosaics every hour (used by RUC’s diabatic digital filter)
- FY2009 plans
- Include estimate of mixed layer depth (and transport wind) for NASA ROSES & RTMA
- NSSL has moved all its efforts over to WDSS-II which might mean our efforts so far are effectively orphaned – we’ll see

## Sample of the Level II National Reflectivity Mosaic (Composite)

## Observation Processing in 2008

- Dennis Keyser had **133 RFC’s**
- Prepared for observation subtype [e.g. aircraft airframe or mesonet provider]
- To be used in stratifying future bias correction work

## Aircraft Observation Processing

- Adapted NRL’s aircraft QC package (S. Bender)
- Process conventional and ACARS data
- Includes improved track-checking
- Ascent/descent reports generated as profiles
- Associated with nearest METAR for surface baseline
- Will expand fcst-vs-obs verification beyond just RAOBs
- Will expand validation of model boundary layer
- For use in RTMA of mixing height & transport wind (NASA ROSES project to blend sat sources (COSMIC) with in situ estimates from RAOB, ACARS, NEXRAD)
- Looking for an implementation in Q3 or Q4 FY2009

## Comparison of Diagnosed PBL Heights from 3 ACARS, NAM Analysis and NAM 30 hr Forecast

_**Comparison of Diagnosed PBL Heights from **__**3 ACARS**__**, **__**NAM Analysis**__** and **__**NAM**__** **__**30 hr**__** **__**Forecast**_

- Marina Tsidulko

## Connections to Marine Analysis and Modeling Branch

- NAM fields used to drive Great Lakes Wave Model when not being driven by NDFD
- Downscaling technique from Netherlands being tested to improve adjustment of winds as you move from land to lake or ocean
- Next NAM will use RTG_SST_HR (1/12th degree)
- Overland lakes to be addressed: sst, ice or snow covered (some invariably need to be “filled in” even in 4 km nests)
- Marine observation station dictionary to improve quality control, specification of height / type of instrumentation and to ensure brand new observations are kept out of operations until they can be validated
- Integrating marine verification into EMC-wide unified verification efforts

## LEGACY: Eta MOS & NGM

- MDL has generated MOS coefficients from ~1-year of NMM-based NAM                                        _[TIN08-89:](http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin08-89_nam_mos.txt)__[ ](http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin08-89_nam_mos.txt)__[REPLACEMENT OF ETA-BASED MOS GUIDANCE WITH NAM-BASED_x000b_MOS GUIDANCE: EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 9, 2008](http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin08-89_nam_mos.txt)_
- This will replace the interim Eta-32k-based Eta MOS
- NGM and its MOS will be terminated 3 March 2009 _[TIN08-90:](http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin08-90ngm_termination.txt)__[ ](http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin08-90ngm_termination.txt)__[TERMINATION OF THE NGM AND NGM-BASED PRODUCTS: EFFECTIVE MARCH 3, 2009](http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin08-90ngm_termination.txt)_
- NCEP will be able to turn off NGM, NGM-MOS, Eta-32K run and Eta MOS
- NCEP & MDL will avoid having to port these to the new computer in FY2009

## HiResWindow Fixed-Domain Nested RunsExpanded 4-5 km Configuration as of 11 Sep 2007

- _FOUR_ routine runs made at the same time every day
- 00Z : ECentral & Hawaii
- 06Z : WCentral & Puerto Rico
- 12Z : ECentral & Hawaii
- 18Z : Alaska & Puerto Rico
- Everyone gets daily high resolution runs _***if & only if***_ hurricane runs are _not_ needed

_**Approved OSIP Gate 3 for inclusion in OB8.3 ... then OB9 ... then dropped – but REINSTATED!! Data started flowing June 2008**_

## Frequency of HiResWindow Runs:No runs at all 50% of time in July & August

- Ratio of total model cycles

## HiResWindow Updates in CY2008

- Feb 12
- Fix WRF Post to get frozen precip included in computation of simulated reflectivity for ARW runs. (NWS Central Region)
- Apr 15
- 1) _Fix_ a bug in the _boundary_ smoothing along the eastern boundary of NMM domains;
- 2) Change compilation options for NMM and task geometry for both NMM & ARW to make codes _run faster_;
- 3) _Trigger_ prelim job from 48 h GFS forecast rather than 84 h GFS forecast;
- 4) Change the NMM namelists to produce _hourly_ model _output_ (added to NAWIPS 4/18;
- 5) Add _updraft helicity_ to NMM output. (NCEP SPC)
- Aug 6
- 1) Change the generating process code (PDS octet 6) from 84 to WRF core specific values of 112 (WRF-NMM) and 116 (WRF-ARW) (for AWIPS NCF);
- 2) Add vertical motion at 200, 250, and 1000 hPa isobaric levels (for DTRA);
- 3) Fix WRF Post to properly generate precipitation type and total cloud field percentage for the WRF-ARW.
- Sep 15
- Generation of GRIB2 is changed so distinct GRIB records are made for wind components (AWIPS NCF).
- Nov  4
- WRF post input code is corrected to eliminate risk of seg fault failure.

## Matt Pyle Developmental 4.5 km NMM Run is Made Daily Backup for SPC http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

- _Matt Pyle Developmental 4.5 km NMM Run is Made Daily __Backup for SPC __[http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/namchanges_dec2006/NAM_Upgrades.Nov2006.html)_

## Plans for HiResWindow

- Improve initial conditions (Liu & Parrish)
- Begin tests with Matt Pyle’s daily run
- Apply GSI analysis (as 3rd outer-loop)
-  Using radial winds only
-  Sharpen background error covariances
- Apply Diabatic Digital Filter (ala RUC)
-  Force latent heating from reflectivity mosaic
- Expand daily Pyle run - 4 km NMM twice per day for all of CONUS starting in Q2 FY2009 (for SPC & AWC)
- Upgrade resolution to ~2 km in 2011
- 1st Priority is to get NEMS & nesting into NAM

## Table 1.  Analysis/Assimilation Differences
Prediction Model (2) & Domain Characteristics (6)
Assimilation Cycle Characteristics (7)
GSI Analysis Characteristics (4)
Observational Differences (17)
Table 2.  Prediction Model Differences (13)
Next two NAM upgrades:
Mar 08: GFS Gravity Wave Drag& Mt Bocking
Dec 08: Partial Cycling

- Prediction Model (2) & Domain Characteristics (6)
- Assimilation Cycle Characteristics (7)
- GSI Analysis Characteristics (4)
- Observational Differences (17)
**Table 2.  **_**Prediction Model Differences (13)**_
**Next two NAM upgrades:**
- Mar 08: GFS Gravity Wave Drag& Mt Bocking
- Dec 08: Partial Cycling

- _31 Dec 2007 __[Table](http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/misc/NAM+GSI-vs-GFS+GSI.html)__ of Differences Between NAM/NDAS & GFS/GDAS__ __Possibly Leading to Reduced NAM Performance Relative to GFS_

## Decision Brief: _x000b_Upgrade to NAM/DGEX

**where the nation’s climate and weather services begin**

- Mesoscale Modeling Branch
- Eric Rogers, Geoff DiMego, Tom Black, Mike Ek,
- Brad Ferrier, George Gayno, Zavisa Janjic, Dennis Keyser,
- Ying Lin, Matthew Pyle, Wan-Shu Wu
**14 March 2008**

## Mar 2008 NAM Bundle

- _GFS Gravity Wave Drag_
-  Fix bug in ozone treatment
-  Improved computation of surface longwave radiation
-  **U**nified land-surface physics
-  Enlarge the computational domain of the NAM by ~ 18%.
-  Upgrade WRF-NMM code to IJK (faster) version and keep pace with changes to the public version distributed by DTC.
-  New GSI code and recomputed NMM background error covariances
-  Assimilation of new/better observation types (AIRS, MODIS wind, Mesonet obs, SFOV GOES).
-  Use 12-36 h forecast precipitation from the 00Z operational NAM as driver for NDAS soil moisture in regions outside of the CONUS.
-  New terrain after 3 passes of smooth-desmooth, fixed oversized GSL and waterfalls

_**18% Increase in NAM domain**_

_**Mar 2008 NAM Bundle**_

## GFS’ Gravity Wave Drag (GWD) & Mountain Blocking (MB)

- “Mountain blocking”  (Lott & Miller, 1997 ECMWF)
- Wind flow around _subgrid_ orography
- Low-level flow is blocked below a dividing streamline (air flows around, not over barrier)
- Gravity wave drag  (Alpert et al., 1988, 1996; Kim & Arakawa,1995)
- Mountain wave stress, pressure drag
- Vertical distribution of the wave stress, changes winds aloft (momentum deposition)
- Extensive testing showed NAM did not need subgrid orography factor for this component of GFS GWD

## Example of GWD impact: Features More Progressive48-72 h QPF valid 12Z 23 Dec 2006

**Example of GWD impact: **_**Features More Progressive**_48-72 h QPF valid 12Z 23 Dec 2006

## Verification : CONUS RMS Height Error : Solid=Ops  Dashed = ParallelRetrospective Parallel Test Periods

**March 2007**

**August 2007**

## Verification : CONUS RMS Height Error : Solid=Ops  Dashed = Parallel Real-time Parallel Dec 07 – Feb 08

## Verification : CONUS RMS Vector Wind Error : Solid=Ops  Dashed = ParallelRetrospective Parallel Periods

## Verification : CONUS RMS Vector Wind ErrorSolid=Ops  Dashed = ParallelReal-Time Parallel Dec 07 – Feb 08

## Time series of 36-h forecast 500 mb Height errors: NAM vs Pll NAM

_**Time series of 36-h forecast 500 mb Height errors:**__** **__**NAM**__** vs **__**Pll NAM**_

## Q1 FY2009 (16 Dec I hope)NAM / NDAS Change Package

- Analysis / Assimilation Changes
- Partial cycling: use GDAS forecast for atmospheric first guess at start (tm12) of NDAS
- Assimilation of TAMDAR, Canadian AMDAR and METOP2 data
- Updated GSI analysis code w/improved CRTM
- Model Changes (also in DGEX)
- Vertically mix/diffuse each hydrometeor species separately
- Radiation: double absorption coefficients for cloud water/ice
- LSM: upgrades related to snow & frozen conditions
- New hi-res (23km) AFWA snow depth analysis

## NAM Parallel Testing

- 1 August 2008 – present : EMC Real-time
- 26 Feb 2007 – 31 Mar 2007 : Retrospective
-  5 Aug 2008 – 28 Sept 2008 : Retrospective
-  28 Oct 2008 – present : NCO Real-time providing gridded product for subjective evaluation

## Equitable Threat (top) and Bias (bottom) QPF Scores: Left=March 2007; Right=Aug-Sept 2008. Red=Ops NAM, Blue=Pll NAM

**March 2007**

**Aug-Sept 2008**

## 24/48/72-h CONUS RMS Height Error : Left=March 2007; Right=Aug-Sept 2008. Solid=Ops NAM, Dashed=Parallel NAM

**Aug-Sept 2008**

**March 2007**

## Real-Time QPF Stats for Nov. CONUS

## Real-Time Stats for Nov. CONUS

_**Real-Time Stats for Nov. CONUS**_

**HEIGHT**

**Temperature**

**Rel. Humidity**

**WIND**

## Real-Time Stats for Nov. Alaska

_**Real-Time Stats for Nov. Alaska**_

**HEIGHT**

**Temperature**

**Rel. Humidity**

**WIND**

## Q1 FY2009 NAM Upgrade Performance Summary

- Upper air stats are _**much**_ better
- Precip is slightly better with somewhat lower biases (helps if NAM bias is high and hurts if it is low – regime dependent)
- Surface stats generally neutral/slightly better except for Alaska warm season bu

## NAM Plans for FY2010On New Computer

- Next machine (providing ~2-3x) August 2009
- Add CONUS & Alaska nests to NAM
- Nests run at ~NDFD spacing: CONUS 4.5km & Alaska 5.5km
- Nests run at least to 48 hours
- Nested guidance similar to HiResWindow except:
- Available _**every**_ NAM run – no hurricane preemption
- Available _**4 times per day**_ – no intermittent availability
- Available ~3 hours _**earlier**_
- Nested output _additional_ to existing NAM 12 km guidance
- No more NAM changes in CY2009
- Porting to new computer & NCO moratorium
- Move to new building
- Move to new ESMF-based NEMS
- (NCEP Environmental Modeling Framework)

## Future Nests Imbedded in 12 km NAM 

## 12 km Terrain                                       4 km Terrain

- Dots represent water points  Domain is San Francisco Bay

**GFS ~35km**

## DiMego’s Preferred Approach to Reinstatement of FWIS

- Reinstate FWIS after NAM implementation on new computer in FY2010 when NEMS one-way nesting capability can be used.
- Reinstating FWIS any sooner would mean:
- Squeezing it into already very busy 2009
- Having to do it within the WRF-Common Modeling Infrastructure and with its nesting
- WRF solution would be very short lived, being replaced within a year or so by a NEMS solution
- Efforts would certainly delay next NAM with NEMS into late 2010 and even into 2011.

## RTMA & DNG – OSIP

- Analysis of Record (AoR) – _**OSIP 05-009**_
- Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) – _**OSIP 06-069**_
- Phase 1 of AoR
- RTMA for CONUS since August 2006
- New capability for OCONUS
- Requires downscaled 3-8 hr NAM fcsts for 1st guess for AK, HI and PR
- Requires downscaled 3-8 hr GFS fcsts for 1st guess for Guam
- Downscaled Numerical Guidance (DNG) – _**OSIP 06-041**_
- Run AWIPS process “SmartInit” at NCEP
- Use full resolution model fields instead of the degraded versions available locally on AWIPS
- First do NAM to 84 hours CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii & Puerto Rico
- GFS to follow
- Will provide first guess for RTMA – Guam
- Will allow eventual termination of DGEX
- Possible improvements are many, but EMC lacks resources to pursue

## RTMA & DNG Accomplishments

- CONUS RTMA Q3 FY2007
- Alaska RTMA Q1 FY2008
- DNG for NAM Q1-Q3 FY2008
- Hawaii RTMA Q4 FY2008
- Puerto Rico RTMA Q4 FY2008
- Unified & Upgraded RTMA Q1 FY2009

## PUERTO RICO NDFD DOMAIN

- Shaded Contours: Topography in meters

**2.5 km RESOLUTION GRID **
**177 x 129 GRID POINTS on a Mercator Projection **
**TERRAIN FOLLOWING COVARIANCES**
**FIRST GUESS ******** SMARTINIT ON NAM FCST**

## HAWAII NDFD DOMAIN

- Shaded Contours: Topography in meters

**2.5 km RESOLUTION GRID**
**321 x 225 GRID POINTS on a Mercator Proj.**
**TERRAIN FOLLOWING COVARIANCES**
**FIRST GUESS ******** SMARTINIT ON NAM FCST**

## Unify & Upgrade RTMA Q1 FY09 [Today!]

**Unify RTMA codes (CONUS & AK same as HI & PR)**
**Add analyzed surface pressure & analysis uncertainty (not mslp)**
**Add RTMA terrain (comes from RUC not AWIPS)**
**Faster code (2.5X faster via better use of multi-tasking)**
**Improved estimate of analysis uncertainty using Lanczos method**
**Analyze sensible T instead of Tv (decouples from moisture) and give background more weight (both help to eliminate overfitting)**
**Recompute, recalibrate & rescale (if necessary)  Background Error Covariance using terrain with ~no smoothing**
**Broaden correlation lengths over water**
**Improved obs quality control**
- Moisture checks inside 2D-Var (for dry-lines)
- MADIS reject list (for CONUS but comes from ER)
- Reject lists provided by NWS Regions
- Tuned dynamic reject list** **

## HAWAII RTMA    Estimated        Temperature Analysis Uncertainty      Valid 12Z 2 September 2008

- Estimated Analysis Error (K)

- Observations Used

- GREEN DOTS : MESONETS
- RED DOTS: NON-MESONETS
- Analysis error is smaller where there are obs and is equal to the background error in data void locations.

- Note: Analysis Error is Computed via the Lanczos Algorithm for Solving Eigenvalue Problems in Connection with the Conjugate-Gradient Method of the GSI minimization. By-products of the GSI minimization (gradient vectors and step sizes) allow us to reconstruct a good representation of the Hessian Matrix. The Analysis error covariance matrix is the inverse of the Hessian.

## Unified RTMA Evaluations

- Josh Watson, “Eastern Region wholeheartedly endorses the suggested changes to be incorporated into the RTMA.”
- The following (4) individuals and (15) ER WFOs have evaluated the parallel RTMA over the last 8 months and provided positive comments and feedback regarding the changes and modifications:
- Joshua Watson, David Radell,   David Novak, Richard Watling
- WFO CAE, WFO AKQ, WFO CTP
- WFO CAR, WFO BOX, WFO PBZ
- WFO RAH, WFO RNK, WFO ILM
- WFO GSP, WFO BTV, WFO GYX
- WFO ILN, WFO CHS, WFO PBZ
- Greg Mann, Detroit WFO DTX
- Florida Institute of Technology – Prof. Stephen Lazarus

- Dave Myrick (WR SSD), “The following WR folks have participated (some more than others) in the evaluation of the parallel RTMA over the past 8 months:
- WR HQ / SSD – David Myrick
- WFO Seattle - Kirby Cook and Brad Colman
- WFO San Diego - Greg Martin
- WFO Reno - Shane Snyder
- WFO Spokane - Ron Miller
- WFO Hanford - Larry Greiss
- WFO Missoula - Gene Petrescu
- WFO Great Falls - Dave Bernhardt
- WFO Billings - Don Moore
- WFO Medford - Dennis Gettman
- WFO Pocatello - Dawn Harmon and Dean Hazen
- WFO Flagstaff - Mike Staudenmaier
- WFO Elko - Ryan Knustvig

- _[TIN08-95: ADD NEW EXPERIMENTAL NCEP RTMA GRIDS TO NOAAPORT AND NDGD: EFFECTIVE JANUARY 28 2009](http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin08-95trma_grids.txt)__ _

## D E D I C A T I O N

- We’re all dedicating this RTMA implementation to the memory of
-           Lee Anderson

## DNG Includes a New Method for Generating PoP

_**DNG Includes a New Method for Generating PoP**_

- Old smartinit method
-  totally based on model
- QPF and RH such that
-  high model QPF=high PoP

- New method combines
-    old method with SREF
-    pops

- With higher resolution
-   we get mesoscale bands
-   which lead to narrow bands
-   of high PoP surrounded by
-   large areas of low or 0 PoP

**PoP**

**NAM**
**precip**

## NAM DNG Distribution

- On 1 December, 2008 _**Brian Gockel**_ wrote: NCEP's NAM-Based Downscaled Numerical Guidance grids (for the CONUS area) are scheduled for addition to the SBN/NOAAPort ... into AWIPS.   The activation is scheduled for tomorrow (_**Tuesday Dec 2**_), effective with the 12UTC distribution.
- This activation is for the CONUS [NAM] DNG only
**[**_[TIN08-87:](http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin08-87_dng-conus-1.txt)__[ ADDITION OF NCEP NAM-BASED CONUS-AREA DNG GRIDS TO NOAAPORT: EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 2, 2008](http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin08-87_dng-conus-1.txt)_ ]
- The activation for the OCONUS NAM DNG is scheduled for late January 2009.
**[**_[TIN08-92:](http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin08-92dng_oconus.txt)__[ ADDITION OF NCEP NAM-BASED OCONUS-AREA DNG GRIDS_x000b_TO NOAAPORT: EFFECTIVE JANUARY 28, 2009 ](http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin08-92dng_oconus.txt)_]
- ... Note that the collective additional data volume is considerable (139MB for each six-hourly batch, or 556MB/Day).  For this reason, staff at the NCF are included and should be aware (Jon Beach and I spoke this evening, about this activation). ...
- AWIPS users have found that local storage space needed after conversion from GRIB2 to local NETCDF is considerably larger.

## NAM DNGLocal Storage Issue Could Be Reduced WithMore Grid Clipping to the Local Domain

_**NAM DNG**__**Local Storage Issue**_ Could Be Reduced WithMore Grid Clipping to the Local Domain

## RTMA & DNG Future Plans

**Funding = $10K (NWS/OST) + $20K (NCEP/OD)**
**Adapt the NAM smartinit to GFS**
**Generate DNG from GFS out to 7-8 days**
**Expand RTMA to Guam **
**Declare RTMA Operational**
**Generate Weather Type for DNG NAM & GFS**
**Upgrade to 2.5 km over CONUS**
**Upgrade to 3 km over Alaska**** **
**Upgrade to 1.25 km over Puerto Rico **
**Upgrade to 1.25 km over Hawaii and Guam**
**Apply DNG to RUC**
**Expand RTMA variables (visibility, wind gust etc)**
**Bias correct 1****st**** guess prior to applying smartinit**
**Retire DGEX**

## RDP降水预报(国家体育场)(0-36h), Initial:08080712

***RDP******降水预报(国家体育场)******(0-36******h)******, ******Initial:08080712***

**CAMS**

**NMC**

**JMA**

**Fr.&Aus**

**Canada**

**NCEP**

**During the Opening Ceremony in Beijing 8/8/08, little precipitation was predicted at National Stadium by five RDP participants except Fr. & Aust.**

_**NCEP Provided 10 WRF runs daily run at ~15 km resolution**_

## National Stadium 

**Accumulated Precipitation  **
**( 04pm Aug.8—06am Aug. 9)**

**National Stadium**** **

## Precipitation Forecast for National Stadium for Opening Ceremony by Deterministic Models

- GRAPES:
- 17:00—23:00 无雨
-  23:00—9日2:00,小雨,<1mm

- WRF:
- 17:00—24:00 无雨

- MM5:
- 17:00—20:00   无雨
- 20:00—23:00:   4mm
- 23:00--9日02:00:6mm

- T639:
- 17:00—9日02:00 零星小雨,
-                                  T量-0.2mm

## Q1 FY2009 SREF Changes - 1

**Upgrade model versions for NMM (2.2), ARW (2.2) and RSM (2008)**
**Increase horizontal resolution for non-Eta members (Eta members run at 32km):**
**To 32km from 40km for NMM (2x)**
**To 32km from 45km for RSM (2.8x) **
**To 35km from 45km for ARW (2.1x)**
**Keep membership at 21 members, but:**
**Add 4 WRF members from 6 to 10 (5 NMM + 5 ARW)**
**Remove 4 Eta members from 10 to 6 (3 BMJ + 3 KF)**
**Add more initial condition diversity using ET method instead of breeding**
**WRF members use 10 different GEFS initial conditions**
**GEFS uses ET method instead of breeding**

## Q1 FY2009 SREF Changes - 2

**More physics diversity:**
**Replace Zhou with Ferrier in 3 SAS members for RSM**
**Replace Ferrier with WSM3 in all members for ARW**
**SREF Output:**
**Fix serious bug in ARW’s BUFR skin-temperature calculation.**
**Breakout single bufr file into individual station time-series used by forecaster’s**
**Upgrade the WRFBUFR code to use MPI I/O**
**Add aviation fields for AWC**
**Add wind-variance fields for DTRA**
**Add hourly output of each member: a late requirement from SPC and AWC to support aviation in Northeast corridor during 2009+ convective season**

## Performance During EMC Testing

- Large scale features are similar between old and new versions
- New versions show:
- More detailed spatial structures (especially in the mountainous West)
- More intense in precipitation amount (expected due to  resolution increases
- Detailed structures are considered an improvement over the current system but traditional scores such as rmse and threat scores may suffer slightly
- Reduced 2m Temperature bias

## Cold Season Retro Runs

- While NCO ran Real-Time Parallel in warm season, EMC ran cold season retrospective cases
- HPC requested 3 cases:
- Dec. 14-16, 2007
- Jan. 1-6, 2008
- Feb. 9-14, 2008
- SPC requested one case:
- Feb. 2-5, 2008 (Super Tuesday Tornado)

## SPC Requested Rerun of  3 Feb 2008        63-hr Forecasts Valid 00 UTC 6 Feb 2008

- SREF								        Verf

-    SREFp

- SREF Forecasts of Probability of Sig. Tornado Parameter _>_3
- SREFp indicates higher probability over lower MS Valley (also note mean STP = 3 contour in SREFp but not in SREF)

## HPC: ZR forecast verifying at 00 UTC on 17 Dec 2007: SREFP shows better areal coverage and amount

**OPS SREF**

**PARA SREF**

- F24hr

- F24hr

- F48hr

- F48hr

## Precip Scores 4 Cold-Season Retro Runs (Ying Lin)

- ETS

- bias

- (1) **Feb. 9-14, 2008**, HPC

- (2) **Feb. 2-6, 2008**, SPC (Super Tue Tornado)

- (3) **Jan. 1-6, 2008**, HPC

- ETS

- bias

- ETS

- bias

- ETS

- bias

- (4) **Dec. 14-16, 2007**, HPC

_**Precip Scores 4 Cold-Season Retro Runs (Ying Lin)**_

## Precip Verification from NCO’s parallel SREF: both ETS and Bias scores improved (from Ying) 

- _Precip Verification from NCO’s parallel SREF: both ETS and Bias scores improved (from Ying)__ _

## SREF 09z Calibrated Lightning Verification of Lightning Fcsts Valid 00 UTC 5 Nov 2008

**SREF -**
**6 Month **
**Sample**

- SREF 3 Day Sample

- SREFp 3 Day Sample

**SREFp Thunderstorm Calibration Statistics: **

-  SREFp Brier score slightly improved
-   (13% vs 9% improvement over climo)
-  SREFp ROC area slightly improved
-    (0.83 vs 0.78)
-  Expect results to continue to improve as
-   calibration adjusts to SREFp

## Summary of SREF Evaluations  

**Strong low-level temperature cold bias is gone for NMM members**
**Both individual members and ensemble mean perform better**
**Ensemble spread quality improves**
**Probabilistic forecast improves**
**More detailed features are seen such as precip and T fields due to model resolution increase**
**More frequent forecast outputs (hourly) and new aviation ensemble products available to forecasters**
**More balanced in membership among four models used (about 5 each)**
**SPC, HPC, AWC and Rich Grumm gave “Thumbs Up”**

## Chronology & Current Status

- _July_  Code handed over to NCO
- _August_  Major changes to produce hourly output
- _August/September_  EMC ran cold season retro runs for HPC and SPC and NCO & EMC worked to construct the NCO parallel system
- _Sept 20_  NCO parallel starts to run regularly
- _Oct. 14 – Nov. 14_  Official forecaster evaluation period
- _Nov. 17_  Fix to turn on precipitation rate field for ARW members (discovered and requested by SPC/David Bright)
- _Nov. 19_  Failure due to script error (shared working directories)
- _Nov. 21_  ARW member fails due to bad input data
- _Nov. 22-23_  Three 21z runs fail with fix for shared directory problem
- _Nov. 25_  New SREF implementation is postponed
- EMC will establish a SREF parallel on new Cirrus machine
- Produce hourly output for SPC calibrations
- Re-submit clean SREF package for implementation later in 2009

## FY2010 SREF Upgrade 

- Expand bias correction to full domain (grids #221 for all of No. Am., #216 for AK and #243 for Pacific Region)
- Downscale all members to at least ~12km with NAM hi-res control
- Downscale all members to 5 km for those variables provided by RTMA
- Add ensemble product based on BUFR
- Bias correct precipitation
- Replace breeding with ET method
- Add 10-50-90 precentile output

## FY2008 Experimental NAM-driven HYSPLIT Alaskan Smoke ProductNow Run by NCO in NWPROD

_**FY2008 Experimental **__**NAM-driven HYSPLIT Alaskan Smoke Product**__**Now Run by NCO in NWPROD**_

## Operational FY08 Forecast Domain 48 h forecasts of Sfc Ozone at 06 and 12Z

- 442 grid cells

- 259
- grid
- cells

_**Operational FY08 Forecast Domain **__**48 h forecasts of Sfc Ozone at 06 and 12Z**_

**CONUS “5x” Domain**
** ****(clean, static BC)**
**Operational NAM-CMAQ**
**Exp: NAM-CMAQ w/ PM**

**Notes:**
For the Summer of 2007, 3 forecast domains were run...all forecasts were run to 48 hours at least once/day at 06 (and 12) z.

## 2008 Real-time Runs WRF-CMAQ 48 h forecasts

| System
 | Domain | Chemistry | Emissions | PBL |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Operational
Prod: 06/12Z
65p, 35 min | CONUS
22 L common hybrid vertical coordinate | CB-04 
gas-phase
2005  | EGU: 2008 DOE projected
Area:2005 NEI
Mobile: OTAG & 2005 NEI | Asymmetric Convective Model
(ACM-2) |
| Experimental Para: 06/12Z
127p, 120 min | CONUS 22 L
  “    “ | CB05 w/ harmonized aerosols | Same as Ops but for expanded CB05 species  | ACM-2
 |
| Develop
Dev2:  06Z only
127p, 120 min | CONUS 22 L
 “    “ | CB05 w/ heterog. aerosols & smoke fire sources | Same as EXP w/ HMS/BlueSky wild fire sources | ACM-2 w/ NAM Kz & mixed layer depth
 |

_**Results with CB05 were slightly worse so no SMAQ upgrade this year.**_

## 8hr Max Ozone: July 10, 2008

- Experimental Run :
-  Better over SJV, SAC valleys
*Stronger Overprediction over LA basin by as much as 40 ppb comp. to obs*

## Air Quality FY09 Milestones

- Add experimental Ozone runs for Alaska and Hawaii domains
- Declare Alaska HYSPLIT smoke run operational
- Add experimental Hawaii HYSPLIT smoke run and CONUS dust product
- Upgrade HYSPLIT physics and test a CONUS dust capability
- Continue exp & dev Particulate Matter runs with CMAQ

## Proposed O-CONUS Domains in FY09

- Alaska 2.5X

- Hawaii 0.5X

## Other Projects

- DTRA / dispersion (McQueen)
- Verification implementation & unification
- _[http://](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/nwprod/)__[www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/nwprod](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/nwprod/)__[/](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/nwprod/)_
- Aviation products for ICAO & Transition of FAA AWRP algorithms from AWC to NCEP’s CCS.

- DTRA / dispersion (McQueen)
- Verification implementation & unification
- _[http://](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/nwprod/)__[www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/nwprod](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/nwprod/)__[/](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/nwprod/)_
- Aviation products for ICAO & Transition of FAA AWRP algorithms from AWC to NCEP’s CCS.

## Slide 75

## ■ Cyclone tracking & verification system