# Presentation: 401637

##   Interactions Between Data, Observations, and ModelingComments on the CCSP Draft Strategic Plan

- Benjamin L. Preston, PhD
- Senior Research Fellow
-  The Pew Center on Global Climate Change
**www.pewclimate.org**
** **

## Climate Change Research Infrastructure

- The research activities of the CCSP (CCRI & GCRP) are dependent upon a robust infrastructure:
- Observing Systems
- Modeling
- Data Management
- Each component serves an independent function
- Yet interaction among all components is also necessary
- Each component is affected by:
- It’s own deficiencies
- The deficiencies of other components
- Improving climate change research requires improving all three components as a unit

## Infrastructure Challenges

- Observing Systems
- Sampling biases (Spatial and Temporal)
- Incomplete sampling/Infrastructure Decline
- Corruption of observing systems
- “Free-Rider” syndrome - lack of dedicated systems
- Modeling
- Model quality (sensitivity/uncertainty analysis)
- Capacity for high-end climate modeling
- Emissions data
- Integrated Modeling
- Data Management
- Data stewardship (storage, reanalysis, restoration)
- Data integration
- Data access

## Infrastructure Challenges

- Much of the *Draft Strategic Plan* is dedicated to improving research infrastructure:
- Addressing observing system deficiencies
- Improving model parameterizations
- Climate model testing
- Enhancing climate modeling capacity
- Scenario development
- Data management/stewardship
- Despite proposed improvements in infrastructure, a number of shortcomings can be readily identified

## Comment #1

- Little attention is given to interactions among data management, observations, and modeling
- Chapter 12 identifies these as “enabling activities”
- Discusses them as separate entities
- Little discussion of linkages
- Must recognize that these components are mutually supportive
*Example*: Climate model paramaterization, calibration, validation is dependent upon an accessible, quality climate data.
- Must ensure coordinated development of data management, observation, modeling infrastructures

## Comment #2

- Observation and modeling priorities are narrowly constrained to address processes in the climate system itself
- No clear enhancement of capacity for monitoring, and subsequently modeling, the effects of climate change
- Ecosystem responses (Chapter 10)
- Infrastructure/Sectoral impacts (Chapter 11)

## Comment #3

*Draft Strategic Plan* demonstrates a limited understanding of the needs of end-users of observing system and modeling data beyond the scientific community (Chapter 13 in particular)
- Resource managers
- Private sector
- Policy-makers - How do they access climate information?
- NRC Reports
- IPCC Assessments
- U.S. National Assessment
- Need more consideration for data needs and data access issues for a broad range of users and stakeholders

## Comment #4

- Poor emphasis on the importance of integrating observation and modeling data from the climate and social sciences communities.
- Increased awareness of the importance of social processes in climate change and variability
- Population
- Land use
-  Technology
-  Yet integrating data is a substantial undertaking
- What kinds of data will be integrated, how, and when?

## Comment #5

- Information on Data Management, Observations, Modeling does not reflect CCSP emphasis on  the articulation of uncertainty
*Observations - *Confidence in the climate record?
*Scenario Development* - IPCC’s decision to treat SRES scenarios as equally likely has proven problematic
*Climate Projections* - IPCC’s and NAST’s approach to uncertainty analysis in climate projections widely criticized.
*Climate Impacts* - Information on consequences is of reduced utility without information on the likelihood of those consequences.

## Comment #6

- Observation and modeling infrastructures do not appear to be fully leveraged to address policy-relevant questions:
- Improving GHG emissions projections
- Identifying climate thresholds
- Evaluating mitigation goals/stabilization targets
- These issues have a high degree of policy relevance
- U.S. continues to support UNFCCC goal of preventing “dangerous” climate interference
- Other nations/institutions (e.g., IPCC) are more heavily invested in considering some of these issues
- Can only be addressed through extensive integration of data, observations, and modeling

## Comment #7

- There is an apparent disconnect between research needs/priorities and deliverable products
- CCSP FY 2003 budget similar to past U.S. GCRP budgets, yet responsibilities have increased (e.g., CCRI)
- Are their enough resources to address all priorities? *Probably not*.
- Which products can we count on?
- A ranking system may be useful for prioritizing infrastructure needs in order of importance (primary, secondary, tertiary, etc.)
- Observing System Prioritization Criteria - *not applied*
- Some proposal for budget allocation seems necessary

## Comment #8

- Long-term strategy for supporting data, observation, and modeling infrastructure is unclear
*Draft Strategic Plan* emphasizes stabilization of existing observing systems - What’s next?
- Two Center climate modeling strategy - Is it sufficient for long-term modeling needs?
*Draft Strategic Plan* suggests large potential for advanced data management systems, but identifies fairly modest near-term priorities.
- This is particularly problematic for infrastructure
- Observing system, modeling, and data management infrastructure may be both costly and long-lived
- Are we designing research infrastructure adaptive to both current and future needs?

## Comment #9	

*A priori* assumption that improvements in infrastructure (and science in general) will enhance decision-making
- What information are decision-makers lacking?
- Will additional research reduce uncertainties?
- Will reduced uncertainty facilitate decision-making?
- Must avoid the assumption that continued investment in research will ease decision-making challenges
- False confidence in science
- Many critical issues for decision-makers will not be clarified over the near term

## For More Information

- Complete Pew Center Comments on the *Draft Strategic Plan* will be made available via the CCSP
- prestonb@pewclimate.org