# Presentation: 239045

## CMIP runs by Suru Saha from Jan.1, 2002

- --***CFS***
- --***GFS ***(changes to diffusion, enhanced mountain forcing, NOAH land model, RTM long wave, ice model)
- --***Monin*** GFS without reductions to vertical diffusion
- --***Prl***—current parallel (glacial ice, hybrid, ozone, wrong Antarctic orography)
- T126, 64 levels
- _[Glenn.White@noaa.gov](mailto:Glenn.White@noaa.gov)_

## Drift in 2 m Temperature from year 1

***All runs show cooling in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes***
***GFS shows more cooling than other runs***
***In reality, 2005 warmest year on record (essentially same as 1998)***

## Drift in T2m

**Drift in T2m**

***CFS***

***Monin***

***Prl***

***GFS***

## Monin-CFS

***Monin-CFS***

- Differences in zonal mean T2m

***Prl-CFS***

***GFS-CFS***

## Prl warmer than gfs except in polar regions

***Prl warmer than gfs except in polar regions***
***Much cooler than gfs over Antarctica***
***Hybrid more like gfs without reduced vertical diffusion***

***GFS-Prl***

## GFS-CFS

- PRL-CFS

***Surface skin temperature***

## 2002-2007 Differences in T2m from CFS

- Sigma seems cooler than hybrid

***2002-2007 Differences in T2m from CFS***

***Monin-CFS***

***Prl-CFS***

***GFS-CFS***

## Biggest differences between sigma and hybrid over mountains, but widespread differences over oceans

***Biggest differences between sigma and hybrid over mountains, but widespread differences over oceans***

***GFS-Monin***

***GFS-Prl***

## Surface skin temperature

***Surface skin temperature***
***2002-2021***

- GFS-CFS

- PRL-CFS

- PRL-GFS

## SST CMIP minus NCEP/NCAR (Reynolds (1979-96))

***SST CMIP minus NCEP/NCAR (Reynolds (1979-96))***

***CFS-NCEP***

***GFS-NCEP***

***PRL-NCEP***

## SST 2002-2021

***SST 2002-2021***

***GFS-CFS***

***PRL-CFS***

***PRL-GFS***

## Precipitable water 

***--all runs show negative drifts***
***-GFS significantly more negative than other runs***

## Drift in precip water

***Drift in precip water***

***CFS***

***Monin***

***Prl***

***GFS***

## Monin-cfs

***Monin-cfs***

***Prl-cfs***

***GFS-CFS***

## Sigma coordinate leads to less precipitable water

***Sigma coordinate leads to less precipitable water***

***GFS-Monin***

***GFS-prl***

***Reducing vertical diffusion appears to reduce precipitable water***

## Very little difference between gfs and prl in diabatic heating except in polar regions

***Very little difference between gfs and prl in diabatic heating except in polar regions***

***GFS-prl***

***Zonal mean diabatic heating ***
***2002-2007***

## GFS-prl 

- Biggest differences in convective heating, partly offset by large-scale heating

***GFS-prl ***

*Vertical diffusion*

***Shallow convection***

***Large-scale***

***Deep convection***

## GFS-prl

***GFS has less moistening than prl (10% less)***

***Vertical diffusion moistening***

***Shallow convection moistening***

***GFS-prl***

## GFS-Prl

***Convective moistening at 925 CFS***

***Zonal mean Convective moistening***

***GFS-Prl***

## Why is there a significant difference in tropical convection between gfs and prl?

***One does not have to change convection to change convection.***

## Prl-gfs differences????

- Zonal mean temperature differences
- 2002-2021
- Prl-cfs differences reflect changes to ice, hybrid vs sigma
***Prl-gfs differences????***

## GFS and prl have significantly more clouds than CFS and have very similar amounts

***Cloudiness function of horizontal resolution***
***GFS at T384 more than 10% fewer clouds than in CMIP runs***

## Zonal Mean Total clouds

***Zonal Mean Total clouds***

***Global mean total clouds***

***Low clouds***

***Boundary clouds***

## Surface net shortwave

***Surface net shortwave***
***Prl as many clouds as gfs, less surface nsw, warmer surface temperatures***

***GFS-CFS***

***Prl-CFS***

***Prl-GFS***

## Soil wetness 

***Soil wetness ***
***0-10 cm***
***2002-2021***

***CFS***

***GFS***

***Prl***

## Soil wetness 2002-2021

***Soil wetness 2002-2021***

***GFS-CFS***

***Prl-CFS***

***Prl-GFS***

## Sensible heat 

***Sensible heat ***

***Latent heat***

***Prl-GFS***

***GFS-CFS***

## Precipitation

***Precipitation***

***CFS***

***Xie-Arkin***

***GFS***

***Prl***

## Precipitation 

***Precipitation ***
***CMIP 2002-2021 ***
***minus ***
***Xie-Arkin 1979-2004***

***CFS***

***GFS***

***Prl***

## Precipitation 2002-2021

***Precipitation 2002-2021***

***GFS-CFS***

***PRL-CFS***

***PRL-GFS***

## Surface stress

***Surface stress***

***SOC (COADS) 81-93***

***CFS***

***GFS***

***Prl***

## CFS-SOC

***CFS-SOC***

***prl-SOC***

***GFS-SOC***

## SST-Reynolds 1979-1996

***SST-Reynolds 1979-1996***

*CFS*

***GFS***

***Prl***

## SST 

***SST ***
***CMIP 2002-2001***
***minus ***
***Reynolds 1979-1996***

***CFS***

***GFS***

***Prl***

## Prl has wrong orography over Antarctica, shouldn’t impact tropics

***Prl minor differences from gfs, major impact on long integration***
***Hybrid vs sigma differences similar to effect of reducing vertical diffusion in free atmosphere***
***I’m confused***

## Effects of reducing vertical diffusion in free atmosphere

***—******Monin vs GFS CMIP integrations***

## Zonal mean nsw sfc

***Monin-CFS***

**GFS-CFS**

**Removing vertical diffusion**

**Removing vertical diffusion means less nsw at surface**

***Zonal mean nsw sfc***

## Zonal mean total cloud

- Both monin and cmip6 more cloud than cmip1, but monin warmer than cmip1 and little difference in dsw at surface

**Monin-CFS**

**GFS-CFS**

**GFS-Monin**

***Zonal mean total cloud***

## GFS-Monin

- Effect of removing vertical diffusion

***GFS-Monin***

**T2m**

**NSW sfc**

**NET SFC RAD**

## GFS-Monin Clouds 2011

***GFS-Monin Clouds 2011***

**HIGH**

**LOW**

**TOTAL**

**BDRY**

## --Removing vertical diffusion in free atmosphere leads to less downward short wave at surface, more clouds, cooler 2-meter T

***-New system with and without vertical diffusion increases cloudiness over old system (CFS)***
***-New system with and without vertical diffusion warmer in polar regions—changes in ice***
***-New system without vertical diffusion warmer at 2 meters than old system, even though it has more clouds***

## Diabatic heating 2002-2009 

***Monin vs. GFS***
***Monin GFS without changes to vertical diffusion***
***GFS-Monin effect of changes in vertical diffusion***
- 	Glenn.White@noaa.gov

## Zonal mean diabatic heating

- Reducing vertical diffusion reduces deep heating in tropics, heating in boundary layer by 20%

***Zonal mean diabatic heating***

***Monin***

- GFS

***GFS-Monin***

## Effects of reducing vertical diffusion

- Convective heating

- Shallow convection

- Large-scale heating

- Vertical diffusion

## Reducing vertical diffusion increases clouds above tropical boundary layer, enhancing cooling there

***Reducing vertical diffusion increases clouds above tropical boundary layer, enhancing cooling there***

- Short wave

- Long wave

- Clouds

## West Pacific convective heating

***West Pacific convective heating***
***Reducing vertical diffusion concentrates heating at equator***

## East Pacific convective heating

***East Pacific convective heating***
***Reducing vertical diffusion reduces heating at equator***

## Reducing vertical diffusion intensifies convection in storm tracks

***Reducing vertical diffusion intensifies convection in storm tracks***

## Reducing vertical diffusion shifts convection from east to west Pacific at equator

***Reducing vertical diffusion shifts convection from east to west Pacific at equator***

- Equator

- Equator

## Monin

***Reducing vertical diffusion concentrates convection at equator in west Pacifc, moves convection away from equator in east Pacific, tends to reduce convection at 400.***

***Monin***

***GFS***

***GFS-Monin***
***reducing vert diff***

***Convective heating 400 hPa***

## Reducing vertical diffusion shifts convective heating to lower levels in tropics, away from equatorial east Pacific

***Reducing vertical diffusions creates slightly more clouds, more radiative cooling 500-700 in tropics***
***Reducing vertical diffusion lowers but doesn’t weaken heating due to vertical diffusion***