# Presentation: 478886

## Overview of a proposed Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT) core facility at theHydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)

**Why is an HMT needed?**
**Vision for the HMT**
**Scientific areas of particular need and interest for the HMT**
**International component of the HMT**

- March 3, 2005

*Jim Hoke*
*Director, HPC & OPC*

## Case for a Hydromet Testbed:Accuracy of Precipitation Forecasts Is Improving, but Much Better Forecasts Are Needed HPC 1-inch Threat Score for Days 1, 2, & 3

**Case for a Hydromet Testbed:****Accuracy of Precipitation Forecasts Is Improving, ****but Much Better Forecasts Are Needed**** **HPC 1-inch Threat Score for Days 1, 2, & 3

## HPC Forecasters Add Value to Model Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) Eta Model, Global Forecast System (model), and HPC 1-inch Threat Score for Day 1

**HPC** **Forecasters Add Value to Model ****Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs)**** **Eta Model, Global Forecast System (model), and HPC 1-inch Threat Score for Day 1

## Warm Season QPF Skill is Low

**Warm Season QPF Skill is Low**
- Eta, GFS, & HPC 1-inch Threat Score for Day 1 (Jan-Dec 2004)

## Little Improvement in Warm Season QPF Skill

- HPC 1-inch Threat Score for Day 1 (June, July, August)

## Additionally, Still Need To Improve

**Additionally, Still Need To Improve**
**Winter Weather Forecasts**
- U.S. NWS Accuracy and Lead Time for Winter Storm Warnings

## Vision for the Hydromet Testbed 

**To **_**accelerate**_** the implementation of operational hydrometeorological products and services, including **_**enhancing & extending forecast skill**_** for **_**high-impact weather**_**, especially **_**precipitation**_**, by facilitating interactions among researchers and operational forecasters.**
**The HMT will:**
**transfer more rapidly and smoothly **
**new technology, weather research results, and observational ****& other scientific advances **
**from the research and development community **
**into improved operational hydrometeorological predictions and services **
**for the hydrologic, emergency management, other communities, and the public, **
**with a ****focus on**** **
_**warm-season**_** and **_**cool-season**_** **_**precipitation**_** **
**out **_**through 14 days**_**, with particular ****emphasize on **_**first 3 days**_**.**** **

## Areas of Particular Need and Interest

**High-impact weather, especially precipitation ****associated with**
**Land-falling tropical cyclones**
**Weakly forced summertime air masses**
**Winter storms**
**Use of ensemble model output and forecaster generation of probabilistic products**
**Exploring future roles of weather forecasters**

## NCEP Ideally Suited to Host Hydromet Testbed

**Experience:  HPC has done QPF for over 40 years and continues to add value to model output**
**Co-location of HPC with:**
**Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)**
**Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation ****(JCSDA)**
**National Precipitation Verification Unit ****(NPVU)**
**NCEP International Training Desks**
**Currently serve countries in South, ****Central, & Caribbean America**
**Climate Prediction Center (CPC)**
**Easy access to other NWS & NOAA groups in Washington area**
**HPC expanding real-time collaborative forecast activities with Weather Forecast Offices of the U.S. National Weather Service and others**

## International Component of the HMT

**International Component of the HMT**

##  Status of Hydromet Testbed Proposals

**HMT proposals are being considered by WWRP, NOAA, & USWRP**
**WWRP resolution for joint HPC-WWRP Workshop in 2004-2005 at HPC (Oslo, Sep 2003)**
**To explore testbed structure, scope, and terms of participation by WWRP members & NCEP**
**Testbed discussion at WWRP Nowcast Working Group meeting (Helsinki, Jun 2004)**
**WWRP/SSC briefed on HMT proposal and endorsed U.S.-hosted workshop of Invited Experts to refine the concept of operations and implementation plan for the HMT (Boulder, Oct 2004)**
**Preparations ongoing for the *****Invited Experts Workshop on a Proposed Hydrometeorological Testbed*****, May 17-19, 2005, at HPC**
**HMT funding through NOAA requested for Fiscal Year 2007 ****(Oct 2006-Sep 2007)**
**Resources within NCEP being reviewed to see what can be reallocated to support creation of HMT**

## Backup Slides

**Backup Slides**

##  Proposed Schedule for the Establishment of the HMT

**May 2005 – U.S. hosts WWRP-supported *****Invited Experts Workshop on a Proposed Hydro- meteorological Testbed***** to refine the concept of operations and implementation plan for an international component of the HMT (HPC, Camp Springs, MD)**
**Jun 2005 – NOAA begins working to implement the recommendations of the *****Experts Workshop***
**Jul 2005 – NCEP establishes management structure for the HMT**
**Oct 2005 – some limited HMT activities using existing resources**
**Oct 2006 – proposed NOAA funding for HMT begins**
**Jan 2007 – expanded HMT operations begin**