# Presentation: 571762

## Radar Product Improvement-

**Radar Product Improvement-**
**Strategic Directions**
**Jack Hayes**
**NEXRAD Technical Advisory Committee**
**Norman, OK**
**October 28, 2003**

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## NWS Radar Improvement Vision

**Reduce loss of life, injuries, and property damage due to severe weather**

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## How Are We Doing?

**“****Yet for all its destruction, the outbreak also appears to be vindicating the country's investment in research and hardware to improve forecasts and warnings.”**
** ****-- Christian Science Monitor May 14, 2003**
**“****They did such a tremendous job of giving early warning to the residents of Oklahoma about these storms in such a manner that it enabled people to seek appropriate shelter," Henry said. "I believe that was a major factor contributing to the fact that we had only one fatality, and frankly, minimal serious injuries.”**
** ****-- Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry**
***“******Better forecasting, advanced radar are saving more lives in tornadoes”***
*** ******-- The Associated Press, May 6, 2003***

**A Typical Year Brings: **
- 7 Hurricanes
- 1,000 Tornadoes
- 5,000 Floods
- 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms
- Drought Conditions
- 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries;  $14 Billion in Losses

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## How Are We Doing?

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## Basic Questions

**What key improvements are required to take warning services to the next plateau?**
**What are the key areas to focus on in science and technology?**
**How can radar science and technology improvements address these requirements**

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## Tornado Warnings

**Warn on Detection: 18-20 minutes**
**Increase data density, spatially and temporally**
**Improve data quality**
**Warn on Forecast and Detection: 30-45 minutes**
**Improve data assimilation and analysis **
**Implement storm scale models**

**NWS GPRA Recommendations Team**

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## Winter Weather

**Snow accumulation algorithm on current system**
**Radar data assimilation in high resolution models**
**Snow-Rain determination with Dual Polarization**
**Synergistic applications utilizing radar, model, satellite, surface observations and other data**
**Delineation of current snow, rain, freezing rain areas**
**High resolution short term forecasts**

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## Other Mission Applications

**Other severe weather**
**Severe thunderstorms, flash floods**
**General forecasts**
**Short term statements**
**Input to model initialization**
**Surface transportation**
**Support to private sector**
**Level II and Level III central collection and distribution**

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## Current and Planned Activity

**Implement new science to take advantage of technology improvements**
**New ORPG applications being implemented every 6 months**
**New products already having impact on warnings, e.g., high resolution velocity**
**Replace Radar Data Acquisition (ORDA Program) and implement RDA applications enhancements (continuing software)**
**Mitigate range/velocity ambiguity**
**Improve spatial and temporal resolution of data collection**
**Add polarimetric capability to RDA (Dual Polarization Program) and implement polarimetric applications (continuing software)**
**Improve severe weather & flash flood warnings, winter weather products**
**Improve initialization of high resolution models for severe weather forecasts**

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## Current and Planned Activity

**Incorporate data from FAA and commercial radars**
**Targets of opportunity to enhance coverage and timeliness of radar data**
**FAA TDWR, ARSR-4 and ASR-11 prototypes operating**
**Southern Region/WFO Huntsville evaluation of Baron Services products underway**
**High resolution model development under WRF**
**Radar data assimilation**
**High quality short term forecasts of severe weather potential**
**Lower tilt angles: negative in mountains, < 0.5 deg in plains**
**NWS team formed to plan and execute feasibility study for one or two particular sites**
**Must focus on high benefit sites**

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## Future Activity

**Phased Array Radar (PAR) & Networked X-Band (NetRAD)**
**Faster scan rates, higher resolution (both)**
**Adaptive scan strategies (PAR)**
**Complete boundary layer coverage (NetRAD)**
**Fine-scale input to drive storm scale models (both)**
**Fine-scale input for air quality and toxic cloud dispersion models (both, particularly NetRAD)**
**Enhanced icing detection and prediction (both)**
**Enhanced QPE (both)**

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## TAC Strategic Directions White Paper

**NWS concurs with TAC recommendations**
**Expand TAC scope beyond WSR-88D, and to techniques other than radar**
**Advise NWS on how to implement elements of TAC Strategic Directions paper**
**Advise NWS on emerging radar technologies**
**Work with the NWS, through the NEXRAD PMC, to address the recommendations**

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes

## Specific Additional NWS Interests

**Validation of soundness of new science applications proposed for NEXRAD**
**Independent recommendations to agencies on competing approaches to complex enhancements (e.g., range/velocity folding mitigation)**
**Independent analyses of PAR and NetRAD engineering developments**

- NEXRAD TAC Oct 2003

- Jack Hayes