# Presentation: 226467

## Commercial AviationSafety Team (CAST)

**Commercial Aviation****Safety Team (CAST)**

**David Downey**** **
**International Aircraft Fire and **
**Cabin Safety Research Conference **
**Lisbon, Portugal, November  2004**** **

## In the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House Commission on Aviation Safety, and The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) 

**In the U.S., our focus was set by the****White House Commission on Aviation Safety, and The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) **

**“****Reduce Fatal Accident **
**  ****Rate by 80%”**

**“****Strategic Plan to Improve Safety”**
**“****Improve Safety Worldwide”**

**Notes:**
 Both government and industry had been long been searching for a reliable way to choose wisely among the many deserving suggested actions to improve various aspects of aviation, thereby reducing risk.

 The Gore Commission’s challenge to reduce accidents by 80% over the next ten year provided the impetus for even closer collaboration to develop a data-driven process to help us focus our scarce resources on those initiatives with the most potential to reduce the risk of accidents.

 Additionally, the NCARC called for collaboration between the aviation industry and government on the development of a strategic plan to improve safety, with specific priorities based on objective, quantitative analysis of safety information and data.

 We were all convinced that the rigor of analyzing reliable data was the surest path to continually improving our performance.

## We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety

**Hull loss accident rate**

**Notes:**
Since the introduction of jet powered aircraft the accident rate has been reduced and continues to be low.  Commercial aviation is one of the safest modes of transportation.  

## We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety

**Hull loss accident rate**

**Airplanes in service**

**32,495**

**2021**

**Departures, Millions**

**17,357**

**2002**

**Boeing 11,693**

**Notes:**
Even with the downturn in departures during the last year, aircraft manufacturers are predicting that the number of airplanes in service will double by 2021, with a corresponding increase in the number of departures.  

## We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety

**Hull loss accidents****per year**

**Hull loss accident rate**

**Airplanes in service**

**32,495**

**2021**

**Departures, Millions**

**Business as usual**

**17,357**

**2002**

**Boeing 11,693**

**Notes:**
If we do not work to reduce the accident rate the number of accidents will increase as the number of departures increases.  

## Slide 6

**Notes:**
 Both government and industry had known for some time which categories of accidents were happening most often and causing the greatest losses of life and property.

 If we could substantially mitigate the greatest fatality risks, we should make good progress toward our Gore Commission goal.

Security events are not studied by CAST
The history of security related events indicate that the contributing factors are not repeated over time. After every security event improvements are made that address the factors involved in that particular event. 
Each security event is a deliberate act by the perpetrator(s) to circumvent the existing prevention tactics. Security events do not involve inadvertent human failures as major contributing factors.  Thus, the CAST process will not successfully identify strategies for prevention of future security events.

## Safer Skies

**HUMAN FACTORS**

**IN OPERATIONS &**

**MAINTENANCE**

**Carry-on Baggage**

**Child Restraint**

**Passenger Interference**

**CABIN SAFETY**

**IMPROVED DATA**

** **

**& ANALYSIS**

**GENERAL AVIATION**

**Loss of Control**

**Weather**

**Survivability**

**Aeronautical**

** **

**Decisionmaking**

**Controlled Flight**

** **

**Into Terrain**

**Approach and **
**Landing**

**COMMERCIAL AVIATION**

**Controlled Flight**

** ****Into Terrain**

**Loss of Control**

**Weather**

**Uncontained**

** **

**Engine Failures**

**Runway**** Incursion**

**Passenger Seat Belt Use**

**Runway Incursions**

**Safer Skies**

**Turbulence**

**Notes:**
   CAST has focused it’s activity on those accident categories that provide the greatest potential for improving the commercial aviation fatal accident rate, as indicated in yellow.

 These accident categories, have historically and repetitively over time, had the highest numbers of recurring accidents and loss of life. 

## CAST Goals

- Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007
- Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

**Notes:**
 CAST has established very concise goals to guide its activity, based on the Gore Commission & NCARC recommendations :

 Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007.

And to work together with international organizations to reduce the worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate.

## Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

**Industry**

**Commercial Aviation **
**Safety Team**
**(CAST)**

**Government**

***   Representing GE and RR**
**** Observer**

**DOD**
**FAA**
**Aircraft Certification**
**Flight Standards**
**System Safety**
**Air Traffic Operations**
**Research**
**NASA**
**ICAO****
**JAA**
**TCC**
**NATCA** **
**NTSB****
**          **

**AIA**
**Airbus**
**ALPA**
**APA**
**ATA**
**IFALPA**
**NACA**
**Boeing**
**P&W***
**RAA**
**FSF**

**Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)**

**IATA****
**AAPA** **
**ATAC****
**APFA****

**Notes:**
  CAST is comprised of Industry and Government organizations that represent all aspects of the commercial aviation community and therefore have the ability to effect change. 

  These organizations have come together voluntarily to improve aviation safety.

  The strength of CAST lies in its extensive membership, its proactive commitment to safety and its ability to effect change.

Aerospace Industries Association (AIA)					Department of Defense (DOD)
Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA)						Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
Allied Pilots Association (APA)							National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Air Transport Association (ATA) 						International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
National Air Carrier Association (NACA)					Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA)
Pratt and Whitney (P&W) 							Transport Canada (TCC)
Regional Airline Association (RAA)						National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA)
Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) 
International Air Transport Association (IATA) 
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA)
Air Transport Association of Canada (ATAC)
Association of Professional Flight Attendants (APFA)
General Electric (GE)
Rolls Royce (RR)

## CAST

- Master safety plan
- Enhancement effectiveness
- Future areas of study

**CAST**

- Data analyses

**Joint Safety **
**Analysis Teams (JSAT)**

**Joint Safety **
**Implementation **
**Teams (JSIT)**

**Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)**

**Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)**

**Notes:**
The CAST process is straightforward.  Analyze causes of past accidents, identify enhancements that could have prevented them, implement the most promising enhancements, measure results, and repeat the process.
 CAST accomplishes that work through a series of teams.  Joint Safety Analysis Teams, or “JSATs”, study accidents and incidents in a selected flight category such as CFIT, identifying precursors to  problems and interventions to reduce or eliminate these precursors.
  Joint Safety Implementation Teams, or “JSITs”, conduct feasibility assessments of these interventions and  design “Safety Enhancements” and Detailed Implementation Plans (DIPs) to deploy these safety solutions. 
  Finally, a Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team, or “JIMDAT”, evaluates these safety solutions across all flight categories and provides prioritized recommendations to CAST for implementation. We’ll look a little further into the JIMDAT prioritization activity later in the presentation. 

## CAST Integrated Strategic Safety Plan

**Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives were Combined into CAST**
**Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety Plan Developed**
**46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements**
**8  R&D Projects and 2 Studies.**
**Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007**
**Safety Enhancements in place and fully supported by Government and Industry**

**Notes:**
 The U.S. aviation industry had been simultaneously organizing around this same notion of data-driven decision making, using the same accident data that led FAA to their strategy, so it was logical to combine our efforts into a joint team -- which we named the Commercial Aviation Safety Team.
 Since large portions of the money to be invested would be by private companies in their own airplanes, this program needed to be voluntary.  This turned out not to be a problem, since data-driven  analyses would show the benefits of an enhancement, and companies would naturally choose the ones offering the most benefit.
 We will show you how this process has enabled us to winnow down a list of hundreds of recommendations into 46 selections and 9 R&D projects that are well on the way to yielding a 73% fatality risk reduction by 2007.  Reducing the fatality risk should bring us within reach of the 80% goal many thought to be impossible. 

Prioritized R & D projects include Synthetic Vision Systems , Runway Occupancy Signal, FOQA & ASAP , Datalink , Precision-Like Approach, Human Factors, Health & Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS), Icing Detection, Annunciation, and Mitigation, Envelope Protection -Existing Airplanes (Study), ATC Procedures -Review Capacity Enhancement Program (Study).

## CAST Safety Plan Specifics

**Notes:**

Using the JIMDAT approach, CAST has developed a strategic safety plan as recommended by the NCARC.  The plan contains 46 safety enhancements (of which 25 have already been completed).  The number of completed items is fluid as CAST approves on-going initiatives.  The items in the plan have the potential for a 73% reduction in fatality risk by 2007.

  The plan is a combination of short-term actions, such as training or Standard Operating Procedures, and longer range design-based solutions. 

## CAST Safety Plan

**25 Completed Safety Enhancements**
**Safety Culture **
**Maintenance Procedures **
**Flight Crew Training**
**Air Traffic Controller Training**
**Uncontained Engine Failures**
**Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)**
**Standard Operating Procedures**
**Precision Approaches**
**Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems**
**Proactive Safety Programs  (FOQA + ASAP)**

**Notes:**
  Although time does not permit my discussing each of the following 25 completed safety enhancements, I have provided comments on a few of them in my published notes to indicate, for those of you who wish to read further, how a range of training, operational and design solutions are utilized.  As you can see from this chart, we’ve made heavy emphasis on preventing CFIT -- & though CFIT is still happening, it is on airplanes not yet upgraded with these enhancements.

CFIT-PAI-Vertical Angles  - Increases the use of Precision approach through addition of vertical angles on approach plates to achieve constant angle descent.

CFIT-MSAW – All U.S. ATC minimum safe altitude warning radars have been site checked to ensure no obstructions exist and all ATC  personnel have been trained on timely MSAW alerts to flight crews.

CFIT Prevention Training  - All U.S. carriers have incorporated CFIT prevention training in their curriculums.

CFIT ATC Training – All ATC personnel have rec’d CFIT prevention training to eliminate CFIT hazards such as “slam dunk” approaches.

## CAST Safety Plan (cont.)

**21 Committed Safety Enhancements**
**Policies and Procedures**
**Aircraft Design **
**Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)**
**Runway Incursion Prevention**
**Precision Approaches (additional projects)**
**8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies**
** **

## Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction

**APPROVED PLAN**

**Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level)**

**Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level)**

**All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level)**

**0**

**1000**

**2000**

**3000**

**4000**

**5000**

**6000**

**7000**

**8000**

**9000**

**10000**

**Resource Cost ($ Millions)**

**Risk Reduction**

**Total Cost in ****$ (Millions)**

**2007**

**2020**

**0%**

**10%**

**20%**

**30%**

**40%**

**50%**

**60%**

**70%**

**80%**

**Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements**

**Completed**

- CAST-050

**Notes:**
A graphical representation of resource application versus risk reduction, which also depicts the CAST JIMDAT prioritized selection criteria for the draft strategic plan.

 In the example plot, it can be seen how the CAST plan items for 2007 and 2020 were selected using benefits versus resources and the rationale for not selecting all 84 solutions.

 This represents the “sweet spot” in terms of prioritizing  safety enhancements. And when you remove the security events, the blue bars go well above 70% and approach 80% when we take credit for the effects that completed enhancements are bringing, as some of them are exceeding their projected success levels.

## Safety Plan Benefits

**Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also results in approximately $620 million annual savings to the industry**
**Current accident cost per flight is approximately $76 cycle**
**Implementation of the 46 selected safety enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per flight cycle**
** ****Safety is morally required and is also good for**
** ****business**

**Notes:**
 The ultimate benefit of reducing fatality risk is the savings achieved in loss of life prevented, but money savings are also important.  By implementing the 46 carefully selected, data-driven safety enhancements, we should reach a predicted 73% reduction in fatality risk by 2007, which will produce approximately $620M cost avoidance (savings) every year for the industry. 
This dramatically demonstrates that Safety is good for business!
NOTE – cost and risk reduction figures are specific to US operations; similar analysis can be performed for international operations.

.

## Cost Savings

**Dollars/Flt. Cyc**

**Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents**

**100**

**80**

**60**

**40**

**20**

**0**

**Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle**

**73% Risk reduction**

- Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle
- Or
- ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year

**Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels**

- 2002

- 2007

**Cost Savings**

**Notes:**
 When we break down costs of our current accident rate, accidents cost us $76 for every flight.

 By implementing the 46 carefully selected, data-driven safety enhancements, we will have reduced these costs by $56 per flight.  

This adds up to a savings about $620 Million EVERY YEAR into the future.  

## Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents

**Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents**

**Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST  Plan **

**(2007 Implementation Values)**

** **

- 0%

- 10%

- 20%

- 30%

- 40%

- 50%

- 60%

- 70%

- 80%

- 90%

- 100%

- Total

- LOC Flt

- CFIT

- Fire/Explosion

- Runway Collision

- LOC GND

- Midair

- Crew Inc

- Eng-UCEF

- Sys-Comp

- Turbulence

- Evac

**Portion of Risk**

- Risk Eliminated

- Risk Remaining

- CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset –
- Security events excluded.

**Notes:**
The potential fatality risk mitigation value of the CAST pan by 2007 is 72%.

This value increases to 78% when the beneficial effects of other ongoing safety initiatives developed outside of CAST by industry and government are considered.

Utilizing the JIMDAT process and applying the results to identify risk eliminated for the dataset evaluated also provides insight into areas of remaining unmitigated risk which are guiding future CAST study areas.

## Slide 19

**Notes:**
The Joint Implementation Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) of the CAST has analyzed the worldwide fatal accidents (1988-2001) to determine what risk would be eliminated if the 46 elements of the CAST Safety Plan were implemented worldwide. It would appear that the CAST enhancements have broad applicability to the global aviation system.

## Safety Metrics Examples

| Safety Enhancement | Indicator |
| --- | --- |
| Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS) | Reduction in MSAW alerts
Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT) |
| 4.  CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-11,18) | Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches
Continuous reduction in the number of approaches where descent rates exceed 1000 feet per minute in final approach phase, reduction in the percentage of dive and drive approaches and the number of unstabilized approaches |
| 21.  ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3) | Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height |
| 23.  ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project | Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates and altitude busts |
| 27.  LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project | Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place
Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems
Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals |

**Notes:**
These are ample indicators that are linked to problems identified in the original case studies.  

The rate of occurrences of these problems link to measuring the interventions.

## International Outreach

**Notes:**
One of the CAST goals is to work together with international organizations to reduce the worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate.

This is accomplished by sharing the information (briefings, reports, prioritized Safety Enhancements, tools, etc.) with groups around the world involved in aviation safety.

## Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World

**Western-built transport **_**hull loss**_** accidents, by **_**airline domicile**_**, 1994 through 2003***

**Accidents per**
**million departures**

**1****Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.**
******* 2003 Preliminary Information**

**United States**
**and Canada**
**0.4**

**Latin America**
**and Caribbean**
**2.4**

**Europe**
**0.7**

**China**
**0.5**

**Middle East**
**3.1**

**Africa**
**13.3**

**Asia**
**1.7**

**World**
**1.0**

**Oceania**
**0.0**

**(Excluding**
**China)**

**JAA - 0.6**
**Non JAA – 1.2**

**C.I.S.****1**

- 11/1/03    REG-053a

**Notes:**
The accident rates shown here are of Western-built transport airplanes shown by airline domicile.  

For example if a US airline had an accident in Africa the United States and Canada rate would change, not the rate in Africa. 

We do not have the data (departure information, etc.) to establish rates for C.I.S. 

## Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World

**Western-built transport **_**hull loss**_** accidents, by **_**airline domicile**_**, 1994 through 2003*******

**Accidents per**
**million departures**

**1****Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.**
******* 2003 Preliminary Information**

**United States**
**and Canada**
**0.4**

**Latin America**
**and Caribbean**
**2.4**

**Europe**
**0.7**

**China**
**0.5**

**Middle East**
**3.1**

**Africa**
**13.3**

**Asia**
**1.7**

**World**
**1.0**

**Oceania**
**0.0**

**(Excluding**
**China)**

**JAA - 0.6**
**Non JAA – 1.2**

**C.I.S.****1**

- 27 May 2004 -KLO

** **_**CAST**_
**46 SEs**
**25 complete**
**21 in work**
**73% reduction**

** **_**JSSI**_
**35 SEs **
**11 SEs to EASA**
**11 complete**
**62% reduction**

_**PAAST**_
**CFIT, ALAR & RI**
**SE-23 + **

** **_**ASET**_
**Just forming up**

_**COSCAP’s Asia**_
**   ****12 SEs on plan**
**   ****60% reduction**

_**COSCAP CIS**_
**Just starting**

**Notes:**
The accident rates shown here are of Western-built transport airplanes shown by airline domicile.  

For example if a US airline had an accident in Africa the United States and Canada rate would change, not the rate in Africa. 

If the 46 CAST Safety Enhancements (SE’s) are implemented in North America as we project the result would be a 73% reduction in risk.  

JSSI will complete 35 SE’s.  5 SE’s started by JSSI will be completed by EASA and 6 SE’s are on the plan for EASA to start and implement. A 62% risk reduction if 40 SE’s started by JSSI are implemented in Western Europe, etc. 

The ICAO Cooperative Development of Operational Safety and Continuing Airworthiness Programme (COSCAP) sponsored regional safety teams are working on the implementation of 12 CAST Safety Enhancements.  Implementation levels and timelines of the three teams, North Asia, South Asia and South Asia Regional Aviation Safety Teams (NARAST, SARAST & SEARAST) will vary.  However it is estimated that a 60% risk reduction will be achieved when these SE’s are implemented. 

The Pan-American Aviation Safety Team (PAAST) is implementing CAST SE’s on a country by country basis and the risk reduction value for the region has not been determined.

We do not have the data (departure information, etc.) to establish rates for C.I.S. 

## Slide 24

**Notes:**
The culmination of the CFIT/ALAR effort is the ALAR Tool Kit.  This CD consolidates the data, products, findings, conclusions, and recommendations of 9 years of work by almost 300 international aviation experts.

## International Safety Activities

- ICAO
- COSCAP **(Cooperative Development of Operational Safety and Continuing Airworthiness)**
**SE Asia, S Asia & N Asia**
- Europe
- JSSI:  Joint Safety Strategy Initiative
- Central and South America
- PAAST:  Pan American Aviation Safety Team

- East Africa
- African Airlines Safety Council, AFRASCO
- West Africa
- ASECNA (Agence pour la Securite de la Navigation Aerienne en Afrique et a Madagascar)
- IATA
- Flight Safety Foundation
- Asia/Pacific
- Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

**Notes:**

  CAST, in focusing on its second goal of reducing the worldwide accident rate, has shared safety information with and supported the efforts of several international safety activities.  It is important that this process continue.
These initiatives utilize the CAST products and determine their suitable for their geographic areas of responsibility.
They also develop implementation plans on the selected activity.
Each of the regions is at a different level of maturity, such as:  East Africa/West Africa are just beginning.
PAAST has been very successful in implementing targeted safety enhancements.
South Asia and South East Asia have combined resources with ICAO COSCAP programs and have established South Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team (SARAS), South East Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team (SEARAST) and North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team (NARAST).
The European JAA Joint Safety Strategy Initiative is the most developed.  They have established an Action Plan Team which converts the CAST Safety Enhancements into European initiatives.   And the JSSI sponsored Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) is developing methods to identify and mitigate future hazards. 

## Summary

## Back-Up  Slides

**Back-Up  Slides**

## Safety Analysis Process

- NTSB Accident
- Incident Reports

- 21.3 Reports

- Airclaims data

- Implementation Strategy
-               JSIT

- Historical
- Data

- Pareto Plots
- JSAT

- NASDAC data

- Causal Analysis

- Combined
- Threat

- Threat

- Cause

- Cause

- Cause

- Cause

- Accident

**1.**

**2.**

**3.**

**4.**

**5.**

**Safety Analysis Process**

- Industry

- FOQA data

-   JSAT

- JSAT

- JSAT

- Intervention Strategy

**6.**

**7.**

- Coordinated Plan

- Measuring Progress to Goal

_**Industry**_

_**Government**_

*Safer*
*Skies*

*AvSP*

- 5.3-23

**Notes:**
A summary of the process is highlighted in this chart.  
The process relies on data at it’s foundation.  We need to access all available data sources and analyze the data into helpful information for decisionmaking.  We look forward to the ability to collect and analyze FOQA data as a potential significant  new source of data, and the eventual reality of a GAIN (Global Aviation Information Network).
We have developed a process all can agree upon for analyzing data to identify key safety focus areas and understanding what happens across accident types to develop the most effective interventions (Safety Enhancements) aimed at reducing the occurance of contributing factors related to that accident type.  
We will take action on the critical few Safety Enhancements, yielding the most safety benefit and are feasible to implement through the JSIT process and coordinated plans among government and industry.
The feedback loop is critical to make sure we are achieving the wanted results.  Metrics will track our success at reducing the overall accident type as well as implementation of the interventions.

## Safer Skies

**HUMAN FACTORS**

**IN OPERATIONS &**

**MAINTENANCE**

**Carry-on Baggage**

**Child Restraint**

**Passenger Interference**

**CABIN SAFETY**

**IMPROVED DATA**

** **

**& ANALYSIS**

**GENERAL AVIATION**

**Loss of Control**

**Weather**

**Survivability**

**Aeronautical**

** **

**Decisionmaking**

**Controlled Flight**

** **

**Into Terrain**

**Approach and **
**Landing**

**COMMERCIAL AVIATION**

**Controlled Flight**

** ****Into Terrain**

**Loss of Control**

**Weather**

**Uncontained**

** **

**Engine Failures**

**Runway**** Incursion**

**Passenger Seat Belt Use**

**Runway Incursions**

**Safer Skies**

**Turbulence**

**Notes:**
 All of the accident areas of interest in commercial aviation area of Safer Skies have been worked or are being worked (Remaining Risk JSAT is currently analyzing accidents related to icing, midair collisions, cargo issues, maintenance and systems errors. 

CAST is now implementing the Safety Enhancements and developing methods to determine how effective the enhancements are in reducing the number of accident contributing factors. 

CAST will transition from a historical approach to a predictive approach and will start to develop methods and tools to examine events that may lead to accidents.  These events will studied and Safety Enhancements will be developed to prevent accidents in the future.  

## Future

## Safety Plan Development

**Safety Plan Development**

**Accident**
**JSAT’s**

**Accident**
**JSIT’s**

**Safety**
**Enhancements**

**CAST**
**Plan**

**Incident**
**Analysis**
**Process**

**Metrics**

**JIMDAT**
**Process**

**Emerging**
**Risk**

**Changing**
**Risk**

**Safety**
**Enhancements**

**Aviation**
**System**
**Changes**

**Present**
**In Master**
**Factors**

**Yes**

**No**

**Demographic**
**Changes**

**Identify**
**Hazards**

**Identify**
**Factors**

**Develop**
**Contributing**
**Factors**
**(new or emerging)**

**Safety**
**Enhancements**

**Identify**
**Hazards**

**Identify**
**Factors**

**Master**
**Contributing**
**Factors**

**6-11-03   CAST-051**

**CAST**** ****Plan Rev.**

**FAST Hazards**

**Metrics**

**Metrics**

**Notes:**
We have completed the historical study of CFIT, Loss of Control, Approach and Landing, Runway Incursion and Turbulence accidents and hull losses which have occurred in U.S.  FAR 121 operations over the time frame of 1987 to 2001. Additionally we have completed an assessment of accidents and hull losses world wide over that same timeframe.

The yellow boxes, ‘Accident JSAT’s’,  ‘Accident JSIT’s’, etc. depict this historical study of accidents from which CAST has identified safety solutions to proactively apply and prevent/mitigate recurrence.  But what is the future direction of CAST?  Where do we go next to look at future risks?

CAST is developing an incident analysis process that will allow us to become more proactive in accident prevention by identifying changing and emerging risks. This is shown by the purple boxes, ‘Incident Analysis Process’, ‘Emerging Risk’, ‘Changing Risk’, etc.

Safety enhancements from this activity will be rolled into the CAST plan, related metrics will be developed and any newly identified contributing factors will be added to the Master Contributing Factor list. 

Also to reach further yet into the future (as shown in green), CAST will examine and identify hazards that may result from ‘Aviation System Changes’ and ‘Demographic Changes.”

Much of this work has been done by CAST’s sister organization, the JAA Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST), which is developing future hazards based on their study of future areas of changes. 

CAST will incorporate the results from the FAST analysis into the CAST plan; safety enhancements and related metrics will be developed and the newly identified contributing factors will be added to the Master Contributing Factor list. 

## Our Challenge:  Stay Focused

- Work together internationally
- Coordinate strategy
- Target our resources
- Focus on prevention
- Communicate industry and government safety processes and initiatives
- Share results

**Notes:**

  The present and future success of CAST is based on these principles;

  Working together internationally to leverage our success.
  Coordinating with the aviation organizations, to agree on the necessary actions. 
  Maintaining a coordinated strategy and targeting our resources carefully on prevention.
  Continuing to communicate CAST safety initiatives and sharing safety results globally.

## CAST ProcessData-drivenIndustry/Regulatory Collaboration

**CAST Process****Data-driven****Industry/Regulatory Collaboration**