# Presentation: 737529

## Year of Tropical Convection A Scientific Framework for Addressing the Multi-scale Organization of Tropical Convection and its Interaction with the Global Circulation 

- Year of Tropical Convection _*A Scientific Framework for Addressing the Multi-scale *__*Organization of Tropical Convection and its *__*Interaction with the Global Circulation *_

*Duane Waliser, JPL/Caltech*
*Mitch Moncrieff, NCAR*
*Co-chairs, Science Planning Group*

## MJO & CCEWsMODELINGinIPCC Models

- Lin et al., 2005

- Difficult to get all
- Parts of the Variability Right

## Multi-Scale 

- Structure

- Nakazawa 1988

- How Important is
- This Finer Structure To
- The Phase Speed, Eastward Propagation, etc

- MJO

## Results from the Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE)

- Courtesy,
- Dave Williamson, NCAR

- NICAM Model
- Looks promising
- e.g., Matsuno talk

## The multi-scale organization of tropical convection and scale interaction are grand challenges in the  prediction of weather and climate:

- How  is organized convection influenced by, and feedback to, the large-scale circulation?
- How does large-scale dynamics and mesoscale convective organization  interact?
- How does large-scale tropical convection interact with the extra-tropics?

- Global effects of organized tropical convection
- (J .Lin, NOAA/CDC)

- Mesoscale – Supercluster
- scale -interaction (Moncrieff 2004)

- Supercluster: a family of
- organized convective systems

## Service Delivery

- Capacity Building

- Observations

- Assessments

- Prediction

- WWRP JSC 2008

## +

**In-Situ Networks (**ARM, CEOP**)**
**GOOS (**e.g., TAO, PRADA, drifters**)**
**IOPs (**e.g., VOCALS, T-PARC, AMY**)**
**High-Resolution Deterministic Forecast Models & Global Analyses**
**Research Models **[e.g., Regional and Global Cloud(-System) Resolving Models)

- New/Improved Resources

**The Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean-Land  Systems  Have Never Been So Well Observed. We have yet to fully exploit the data. **

## Develop a virtual “field Program” with existing resources and model/forecast & Parameterization  improvement as a chief objective. 

**Satellite Observations (**e.g., EOS**)**
**In-Situ Networks (**ARM, CEOP**)**
**GOOS (**e.g., TAO, PRADA, drifters**)**
**IOPs (**e.g., VOCALS, T-PARC, AMY**)**
**High-Resolution Deterministic Forecast Models & Global Analyses**
**Research Models **[e.g., Regional and Global Cloud(-System) Resolving Models)

- New/Improved Resources

**The Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean-Land  Systems  Have Never Been So Well Observed. We have yet to fully exploit the data. **

## Overarching Goals

- Through improved
**     ****understanding, **
**     ****GCM parameterization**
**     ****data assimilation techniques, and **
**     ****computational/modeling capabilities,**
-  _achieve significant gains in __**forecast skill**_ in:

## Strategy: Target Phenomena with Focused Working Groups

**Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO/CCEWs)**-Advances in our modeling capabilities in the MJO are expected to lead to significant untapped predictability in both tropical weather forecasts, monsoon onsets and breaks, extra-tropical weather, and provide a bridge between weather and climate predictions. Underlying the MJO are CCEWs,  considered to be important building blocks of tropical convective variability and its organization on a wider range of time scales.
**Easterly Waves / Tropical Cyclones** - Easterly waves are an important triggering mechanisms for tropical storms and cyclones and the latter represent one of the most severe of the high impact weather events that warrant continued improvements in track and intensity prediction.
**Diurnal Cycle - **Our shortcomings in representing arguably the most basic and strongest forced mode of variability demands attention.  Moreover, studies indicate that the diurnal scale can rectify onto longer time scale processes.
**Monsoons ****-**These are complex multi-scale processes and within the proposed activity could be considered as the ultimate challenge or integrating theme as their variability is strongly influenced by the diurnal cycle, CCEWs, the MJO, and land-atmosphere-ocean interaction.
**Tropical/Extratropical Interactions - **It is well known that convective variability in the tropics influences mid-latitude weather and climate.  However, our predictions of the latter suffer due to poorly understood and simulated tropical convection.  Moreover, there are still significant questions regarding the manner that the extra-tropics influences convection in the Tropics.

- Groups that can help develop and/or carry out implementation plan

## YoTC: Steps Towards Implementation

**Analysis & Forecast Data Sets**
*ECMWF – **Acquired & On-line*
*NASA/MERRA **– Calculation & Delivery In Progress; Jan 08.*
*NCEP **– Expected and in Progress*
*CLIVAR MJO WG **– Multi-Operational Centre MJO Forecasts *
**Synoptic Event Identification for Target Phenomena**
** ****Satellite Data Sets **
**Research Modeling Framework **
**Coordinate with Field Exp (e.g., AMY, VOCALS, T-PARC) **

- _YoTC: Steps Towards Implementation_

**You are invited to participate **
**in any of the above areas.**

## YoTC : Analyses & Forecasts

**YoTC : Analyses & Forecasts**

**ECMWF:**
**T799 (4xDay)Analyses**
**10-day (3hr) Forecasts**
**Weather Analyses**
**High-Res ICs & BCs**
** ****Satellite vs Analysis**
** ****Process ****Examination**
**$ Source: NSF + ONR**
*Diabatic and many other vertical profile and process fields archived.*

- http://data-portal.ecmwf.int/data/d/yotc/

## YoTC: Steps Towards Implementation

**Analysis & Forecast Data Sets**
**Synoptic Event Identification for Target Phenomena**
*MJO & CCEWs*
*Easterly Waves & TCs*
*Synergistic Multi-Component Events (e.g., monsoon, tropica-extra tropical, regional synoptic)*
** ****Satellite Data Sets **
**Research Modeling Framework **
**Coordinate with Field Exp (e.g., AMY, VOCALS, T-PARC) **

- _YoTC: Steps Towards Implementation_

**You are invited to participate **
**in any of the above areas.**

## KW / MJO activity

**KW / MJO activity**

**Extended period of convective activity**

**EQ**

**NH**

- _EXAMPLE: Synoptic Event of Interest June/July 2008_
- MJO/Kelvin Waves -> E.Pac ITCZ -> TCs -> Gulf Surge ->
- NA Monsoon -> Flash Floods AZ, NM
-  *Contributed by J. Gottschalck/NCEP & M. Wheeler/ABOM*

## EXAMPLE: Synoptic Event of Interest June/July 2008

- _EXAMPLE: Synoptic Event of Interest June/July 2008_
- MJO/Kelvin Waves -> E.Pac ITCZ -> TCs -> Gulf Surge ->
- NA Monsoon -> Flash Floods AZ, NM
-  *Contributed by J. Gottschalck/NCEP & M. Wheeler/ABOM*

## Northward and Eastward Propagating Components: June 6

## Upstream Kelvin Wave Activity: June 19 

- Upstream Kelvin Wave Activity: June 19

## Downstream Propagation -> ITCZ & TC Activity : June 29 

- Downstream Propagation -> ITCZ & TC Activity : June 29

## Gulf Surge & Monsoon Activity : July 11

## YoTC: Steps Towards Implementation

**Analysis & Forecast Data Sets**
**Synoptic Event Identification for Target Phenomena**
** ****Satellite Data Sets **
*Acquire Most Relevant Data Sets *
*TRMM, CloudSat, AIRS, AMSR-E,*
*   **ISCCP, QuickScat,CERES, MODIS, *
*   **CALIPSO, MLS, CMORPH+TMPART*
* **Dissemination System (e.g., NASA Giovanni)*
**Research Modeling Framework **
**Coordinate with Field Exp (e.g., AMY, VOCALS, T-PARC) **

- _YoTC: Steps Towards Implementation_

**You are invited to participate **
**in any of the above areas.**

## Satellite Data Analysis & Dissemination 

- _Satellite Data Analysis & Dissemination _

- NASA Giovanni NEESPI
- A-Train Data Interfaces

- June 19, 2007

## Satellite Data : 3 Hour Precip Estimates

- Courtesy Matt Sapiano & Phil Arkin/ESSIC & PEHRPP
- http://essic.umd.edu/~msapiano/PEHRPP/YOTC.html

## YoTC: Steps Towards Implementation

**Analysis & Forecast Data Sets**
**Synoptic Event Identification for Target Phenomena**
** ****Satellite Data Sets **
**Research Modeling Framework**
*Global CSRMs (e.g., FRCGC/NICAM)*
*MMFs (i.e. superparameterization, e.g. CSU & NASA)*
*UK CASCADE (~1km W.Pac MJO Simulation – Spr 2009)*
*Tropical Channel Model (e.g., NCAR)*
*AGCMs/CGCMs*
*Transpose-AMIP/CAPT – J.Boyle/S.Klein (CAM & GFDL?)*
**Coordinate with Field Exp (e.g., AMY, VOCALS, T-PARC) **

- _YoTC: Steps Towards Implementation_

**You are invited to participate **
**in any of the above areas.**

## Year of Tropical Convection

**Year of Tropical Convection**

- _Requests for Help & Participation_
- Graduate student & postdoc Attention - Training & Leadership Opportunity
- Forming and participating in “Target Phenomena” Working Groups
- Identifying and Documenting “Events of Interest”
- Participate in and help frame regional and/or global Modeling activities

## YoTC

- ERRORS

- 2008

- 2009

- diurnal cycle, synoptic systems,
- intraseasonal, annual cycle, mean,
- mesoscale-to-planetary-scale organization

- 2010

**YoTC**