# Presentation: 557249

## ClearSky: Development and evaluation of an automated, MM5-CALMET-CALPUFF modeling system providing web-mediated support for management of smoke from agricultural field burning 

**ClearSky: Development and evaluation of an automated, MM5-CALMET-CALPUFF modeling system providing web-mediated support for management of smoke from agricultural field burning**

**Joe Vaughan, Kyle Heitkamp, Rahul Jain****‡****, Brian Lamb**
- Laboratory for Atmospheric Research
- Washington State University, Pullman, Washington
**‡**Levelton LCC, Richmond, BC
*For presentation February 16th, 2005*
- National Air Quality Conference, February 13-16, 2005
- Cathedral Hill Hotel, San Francisco

## Outline:

**Outline:**
** ****Motivation-Context-History**
** ****System description**
** ****Evaluation from 2003 burn season**
** ****2004 field study**
** ****Future Plans**** **

## We are experiencing a historic, slow motion triple-collision in fire culture.

- Recent growth in scientific knowledge of how smoke affects human health supports tighter regulation on exposure of humans to smoke from all sources, including prescribed burning (EPA Air Quality Criteria for Particulate Matter, 2004).
- People increasingly occupy the margins of wildlands, beyond traditional urban and sub-urban settlements, constituting a new exurban wildlands-urban interface (Weise and Martin, 1996).

**Motivation**-Context-History

## Motivation-Context-History

**Motivation**-Context-History

## Motivation-Context-History

*Pyrogenic Emission factor data from 8 studies for 6 pollutants for agricultural grasses and similar natural plant communities.*

- Motivation-**Context**-History

## ClearSky Domains

**Domain is 180 x 121 cells w/ 4-km cell spacing.**
**Areas of ClearSky Operation (cumulative):**
**2002: Rathdrum Prairie and Coeur d’Alene ****	****Reservation, ID**
**2003: Nez Perce Reservation / Clearwater Valley, ID**
**2003: Eastern Washington**
**2004: Boundary County, ID**** **
**2005: Demonstration Plume for north-central OR**
**2005: Demonstration plume for Creston, BC area **

- Motivation-Context-**History**

## 2004 ClearSky Ag-Burn Smoke Dispersion Modeling System 

**2004 ClearSky Ag-Burn Smoke ****Dispersion Modeling System**

**MM5**

**CALMET**

**CALPUFF**

**u, v formatted**
**for each layer **
**of CALMET**

**3D met field**
**-----------------**
**u, v, w, T, **
**BL variables**

**Web-served PM2.5 **
**plume animations**

**IC/BC**
**landuse**
**terrain**

**MCIP**

**PM2.5 emissions from web-based user interface**

- System Description

## Daily Web Based Emissions Input

- System Description

## Results for 2002/09/16

- System Description

## August 11, 2003

- About 3000 acres burned

- Evaluation

## August 11, 2003

- Evaluation

## Plumes Missing Athol on August 11, 2003

**T**

**ime**

** **

**(**

**U.T.Z.))**

**PM2.5 Concentrations**

** ****(ug/m3)**

** **

- Evaluation

## August 19, 2003

- About 3000 acres burned

- Evaluation

## August 19, 2003

- Evaluation

## Plumes Missing Athol on August 19, 2003

**Time (U.T.Z.))**

** **

**PM2.5 Concentrations (ug/m3)**

** **

- Evaluation

## August 25, 2003

- About 1000 acres burned

- Evaluation

## August 25, 2003

- About 1000 acres burned

- Evaluation

## August 25, 2003

- Evaluation

## 9/29/04 Plume Rise as Observed and in CALPUFF

- 12:30 PDT

- 12:41 PDT

- 2004 Field Study

## Future Plans

**Future Plans**

- Spring-Summer-Fall 2005 operations?
- Further field observations w/ lidar or IR imager.
- BlueSky/RAINS, scenario results sharing... ClearSky data currently being imported into BlueSky/RAINS by USDA Forest Service ?
**ClearSky Ensemble System Development**

## ClearSky Ensemble Concept 

**ClearSky Ensemble ****Concept**

**CALMET**

**CALPUFF**

**u, v formatted**
**for each layer **
**of CALMET**

**3D met field**
**-----------------**
**u, v, w, T, **
**BL variables**

**Web-served PM2.5 **
**plume animations**

**PM2.5**
**emissions from web-based**
**user interface**

**MCIP**

**U**niversity of **W**ashington **M**esoscale **E**nsemble System

**WSU ClearSky E**nsemble System

- Future Plans

## Papers and presentations on the UWME (by Cliff Mass, Eric Grimit and F. Eckel) are available at http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ens/pubs_n_pres.html.  Our initial system will utilize a set of ensemble members of presumed equal validity.   For a single ClearSky scenario, the average of the PM2.5 predictions resulting from all ensemble members will be a map of relative probability of PM2.5 impact. 

- Papers and presentations on the UWME (by Cliff Mass, Eric Grimit and F. Eckel) are available at http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ens/pubs_n_pres.html.  Our initial system will utilize a set of ensemble members of presumed equal validity.   For a single ClearSky scenario, the average of the PM2.5 predictions resulting from all ensemble members will be a map of relative probability of PM2.5 impact.

## ClearSky Ensemble --Initial System Concept 

- N processors

- M scenarios

- UW System

- WSU ensemble cluster

**ClearSky Ensemble --****Initial System Concept**

- M ‘ensembled’ scenario animations

-  post-
- processing
- (averaging L
- members)

- UW Web-server

## Summary of the ClearSky Ensemble System

**Summary of the ClearSky Ensemble System**
- Objective:  Provide improved smoke guidance for coordinators by producing a probabilistic forecast product.
- Strategy: Use MM5 meteorological ensemble members to produce an ensemble of CALPUFF predictions, for each scenario, and then average the CALPUFF ensembles to produce a ensemble-average CALPUFF scenario.  The ensemble-average CALPUFF result for a scenario may be interpreted as a map of the relative probability of PM2.5 above background; with experience it may be possible to quantify the ensemble-average CALPUFF results.

## Acknowledgements:  Support from:
US EPA Region 10
USDA Forest Service, FERA Lab
Idaho Department of Environmental Quality
Washington Department of Ecology
Environment Canada, BC Department of Land, Water and Air Protection.
Collaboration with:
Nez Perce Tribe ERWM
Coeur d’Alene Tribe

- US EPA Region 10
- USDA Forest Service, FERA Lab
- Idaho Department of Environmental Quality
- Washington Department of Ecology
- Environment Canada, BC Department of Land, Water and Air Protection.
- Collaboration with:
- Nez Perce Tribe ERWM
- Coeur d’Alene Tribe

## Thank you!

**Thank you!**
**Discussion?**
**Questions?**
**Contact: jvaughan@wsu.edu**