# Presentation: 669272

## NOAA Climate 

**Chet Koblinsky****Director, NOAA Climate Program Office ****July 2006**

## Increased Vulnerability
9 billion (B) people by 2050 (50% increase)
Increasing urbanization into mega-cities – 4B new city dwellers – aging populations, overdevelopment in coastal regions and regions with limited water supply
Food availability requires sustainable increases in food output/hectare of 200-300%
Energy security
Water availability
Health threats – pollution
Sea level changes

- Increased Vulnerability
**9 billion (B) people by 2050 (50% increase)**
**Increasing urbanization into mega-cities – 4B new city dwellers – aging populations, overdevelopment in coastal regions and regions with limited water supply**
**Food availability requires sustainable increases in food output/hectare of 200-300%**
**Energy security**
**Water availability**
**Health threats – pollution**
**Sea level changes**

**21st Century Societal Challenges**

## Climate Challenges

**Warming Trend**
**Abrupt changes and regime shifts**
**Natural variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño, monsoons, seasons)**
**Extremes (heat waves, storms, droughts)**
**Impacts (air quality, marine ecosystems, coasts, society)**

- Greenland

##    Winter 2007 Outlook:  Warm

**Notes:**
Value and limits of predictive information

## Drought Conditions and Outlook:Dry in the Great Plains

**Notes:**
Value and limits of predictive information

## Climate Products of the Future

**Climate Products of the Future**

- Seasonal coastal ocean pollution outlooks

- Seasonal and decadal hurricane outlooks

- Likelihoods of dead zone occurrence

- Seasonal air quality and degree day outlooks

- Probability of extreme fall/winter flooding events

- Seasonal fire outlooks

- % normal agricultural (carbon) output outlooks

- Likelihoods of fisheries regime changes

- Asian air quality impacts

- Seasonal hydrologic and drought outlooks

- Coastal Climatologies

- Seasonal carbon source and sink maps

## NOAA Climate Goal Strategy

**Increase availability**** ****of climate products and services to enhance**** ****public and private sector decision making**** **

**Regional Decision Support**

***Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond***

**NOAA Climate Goal Strategy**

## Observations and Analysis ProgramProgram Manager:  Tom Karl NESDIS

- 	Objective: Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, analysis, and data management

**Wintertime Surface Temperature Anomalies (deg. C)**

**Climate of the 20th Century**
- _Major features were_
**Warm 1950’s and 1990’s**
**Cool 1960’s and 1970’s**
- _These resulted from_
**Natural climate variability**
**Anthropogenic causes**
**Volcanic and solar effects**

## Observations and Analysis 

***Integrated Ocean Observation System:  Global***

- The global ocean component of the observing system is primarily focused on climate.

## Observations and Analysis

***Products and Users***

**Products**
-  State of the Climate Annual Report
-  State of the Ocean Annual Report
-  Contributions to International Assessments
-  CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products
-  Available online data and information (2.8TB)

## Climate Forcing ProgramProgram Manager:  A.R. Ravishankara OAR

- Objective: Reduce uncertainty in climate projection (i.e.,* the forcing of climate by anthropogenic agents, now and in the future, [see below])* through timely information on the forcing and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth’s climate.

## Climate Forcing

**Climate Forcing**
***Carbon Cycle Atmospheric Observing System***

- The vertical profiles of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane are being measured at 17 aircraft and 3 tall tower sites as part of the North American Carbon Program.  When the network is complete (36  total sites by FY2008), regional information on carbon dioxide sources and uptake in North America will be available.

- 500 meter Carbon Gas
- Sampling
- Tower

## Predictions and Projections 

***Program Manager:  Ants Leetmaa OAR***

**Observed**

**Model**

**Objective: A predictive understanding of the global climate system on timescales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed decisions on issues related to drought, water resources, ecosystems, fisheries, health, energy, climate and extreme events**

## Climate and Ecosystems Program

**Climate and Ecosystems Program**
***Program Manager:  Kenric Osgood NMFS***

**Catch (millions)**

- Objective: Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems
**North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity Program**: Understanding and Forecasting ecosystem response to changing Climate in the North Pacific
**Why:** Alaska supplies about one half of seafood caught in US
**Participants**: NOAA Fisheries, NOAA Research

## Regional Decision Support ProgramProgram Manager:  Jim Laver NWS

- Objective: Increase number and use of climate products and services to enhance public and private sector decision making

- _RISA research is_:
-  User focused
-  Interdisciplinary
-  Place-based
-  Considers multiple stressors
-  Focuses on key regional issues
-  Provides and assesses uses of
- climate information and products for regional decision support

- The Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) provide a direct connection between research and end users.
**FY06 - ALASKA**