# Presentation: 079941

## International Energy Outlook 2008

**U.S. Energy Information Administration**

**3****rd**** Energy Forum**
**Budapest, Hungary**
**October 27, 2008**

***International Energy Outlook 2008***
**with Projections to 2030**

## International Energy Outlook 2008 - Summary

- Worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 50% between 2005 and 2030.  The non-OECD countries grow by 85%.
- World oil prices remain relatively high through 2030. Prices ease somewhat in the mid-term as anticipated new liquids production (in Azerbaijan, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and the U.S.) reaches the marketplace, but ultimately supply remains tight.
- Sustained high oil prices mean that renewables are the world’s fastest-growing energy source (2.1% per year), followed closely by coal (2.0% per year).
- Although petroleum and other liquids retain the largest share of  total world energy use through 2030, their share falls from 37% in 2005 to 33% in 2030.
- Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 28.1 billion metric tons in 2005 to 34.3 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.3 billion metric tons in 2030.

## World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and Non-OECD

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

**History**

**Projections**

**241**

**221**

**286**

**409**

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Average Annual GDP and Population Growthfor Selected Regions, 2005-2030

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## World Oil Prices in the 

**World Oil Prices in the **
**IEO 2008 Reference Case**

**History**

**Projections**

- Source: EIA, IEO2008 and Oct 2008 STEO

**$113**

**Average WTI price for June 2008**

**Average WTI price for May 2007**

## World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**33%**

**29%**

**8%**

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**24%**

**6%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

**History**

**Projections**

**37%**

**23%**

**27%**

**8%**

**6%**

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

## World Proved Oil Reserves and Projected Total Liquids Consumption from 2005 through 2030 (billion barrels)

**World Proved Oil Reserves and Projected Total Liquids Consumption from 2005 through 2030 (billion barrels)**

**Source:  *****Reserves: *****Oil & Gas Journal. *****Consumption*****:  EIA, IEO2008**

## World Liquids Consumption by Region

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

**Non-OECD**

**Percent**
**Change**
**2005-2030**

**11%**

**102%**

**3%**

**7%**

**42%**

**62%**

**43%**

**47%**

## Motor Vehicle Ownership by Selected Region

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## World Liquids Production, 1990-2030

- Non-OPEC (Conventional)

- OPEC (Conventional)

- Unconventional

- Total

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

**55**

**10**

**48**

**113**

**84**

**47**

**35**

**2**

## Liquids Production in Select Non-OPEC Regions, 2005 and 2030

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## OPEC Conventional Liquids Production

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Worldwide Unconventional Liquids Production, 2005 and 2030

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Nominal World Oil Prices in Three Price Cases

**Nominal World Oil Prices in Three Price Cases**

**History**

**Projections**

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

**$113**

**$69**

**$186**

## World Liquids Consumption in Three Price Cases, 2005 and 2030

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

**2030**

## World Liquids Consumption in Three Price Cases, 2030

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

## World Liquids Supply in Three Price Cases, 2005 and 2030

**2030**

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

**OPEC**
**Conventional**

**Non-OPEC**
**Conventional**

**Unconventional**

## World Proved Natural Gas Reserves and Projected Total Gas Consumption from 2005 through 2030 (trillion cubic feet)

**World Proved Natural Gas Reserves and Projected Total Gas Consumption from 2005 through 2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**Source:  *****Reserves: *****Oil & Gas Journal. *****Consumption*****:  EIA, IEO2008**

## World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2030

- OECD

- Non-OECD

- Total

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

## Figure 39. Natural Gas Consumption in Europe and Eurasia, 2005-2030

- Other Europe & Eurasia

- OECD Europe

- Russia

- Source: EIA, IEO2008

## Natural Gas Production in Select Regions, 2005 and 2030

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Russian Natural Gas Production, 1995-2030

**Russian Natural Gas Production, ****1995-2030**

- Sources:  EIA, IEO2008 and World Gas Intelligence, October 22, 2008

- Gazprom projections

- IEO2008

## Technically Recoverable U.S. Natural Gas Resources as of January 1, 2006 (trillion cubic feet)

**Undiscovered nonassociated**

**Inferred nonassociated**

**Unconventional**

**Other unproved**

**Proved**

**Offshore**

**Coalbed methane**

**Shale gas**

**Tight gas**

**Alaska**

**Lower 48 associated-dissolved**

**Onshore**

**Offshore**

**Onshore**

**273**

**500**

**227**

**161**

**204**

**Total: 1,365 trillion cubic feet**

**56**

**171**

**115**

**158**

**71**

**125**

**304**

**31**

**130**

## U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

**Alaska**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore**

**Lower 48**
**Associated-Dissolved**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore**

**Projections**

**History**

## Unconventional Natural Gas Production, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

**History**

**Projections**

**Coalbed Methane**

**Tight Sands**

**Gas Shales**

## Unconventional Natural Gas Resources(Gas in Place)

| Region | Coalbed Methane | Shale Gas | Tight-Sand Gas | Total |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|   | Tcf | Tcf | Tcf | Tcf |
| North America | 3017 | 3840 | 1370 | 8228 |
| Latin America | 39 | 2116 | 1293 | 3448 |
| Western Europe | 157 | 509 | 353 | 1019 |
| Central and Eastern Europe | 118 | 39 | 78 | 235 |
| Former Soviet Union | 3957 | 627 | 901 | 5485 |
| Middle East and North Africa | 0 | 2547 | 823 | 3370 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 39 | 274 | 784 | 1097 |
| Centrally planned Asia and China | 1215 | 3526 | 353 | 5094 |
| Pacific OECD | 470 | 2312 | 705 | 3487 |
| Other Asia Pacific | 0 | 313 | 549 | 862 |
| South Asia | 39 | 0 | 196 | 235 |
| World | 9051 | 16103 | 7406 | 32560 |

- Source: "Tight Gas Sands", Journal of Petroleum Technology, June 2006, Page 86-93.
- Table 1 - Distribution of Worldwide Unconventional-gas resources (After Rogner 1996, Taken from Kawata and Fujita 2001)

**Unconventional Natural Gas Resources****(Gas in Place)**

## World Coal Consumption, 1980-2030

- India

- United States

- Rest of World

- China

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

**World Coal Consumption, 1980-2030**

## World Electric Power Generation by Region

**World Electric Power Generation by Region**

**History**

**Projections**

**Non-OECD**

**OECD**

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

- 19.7

- 7.5

- 13.5

- 9.9

## World Electric Power Generation by Fuel

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Nuclear Capacity by Region

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## World Renewable Energy Use, 2005-2030

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fossil Fuel

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**History**

**Projections**

**41%**

**44%**

**39%**

**35%**

**20%**

**21%**

- Source:  EIA, IEO2008

## Major Trends in the IEO2008 Outlook

- Total world energy use is 50% higher in 2030 compared to 2005.
- Sustained high world oil prices dampens demand in the out years of the projections; liquids demand is 4% lower in 2030 than in last year’s outlook.
- Renewable energy is the fastest growing worldwide in the forecast, at 2.1% per year, but coal is close behind at 2.0% per year.
- It is likely that energy use in the non-OECD will exceed energy use in the OECD this year! By 2030, non-OECD energy use is 43% higher than that in the OECD.
- China’s energy use exceeds that of the U.S. by 2017 and is 32% (37 quadrillion Btu) higher than in the U.S. by 2030 in the IEO2008 reference case.
- Given the continued importance of fossil fuels in the forecast, carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise by 1.7 percent per year between 2005 and 2030.

## www.eia.doe.gov

**justine.barden@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2008*****, June 2008**
***  ******Annual Energy Outlook 2008*****, March 2008, full report, June 2008**
***  ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly***** ***
***  ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
**Examples of Special Analyses**
**    ****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
***    ******The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48               ****	****Federal Outer Continental Shelf,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2007    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**