# Presentation: 863607

## Climate Change in Rocky Mountain National Park

- Jill Baron
- US Geological Survey
- Natural Resource Ecology Lab
- Colorado State University
- Fort Collins CO
- 22 March 2007

- “Pushing the envelope.  How about you?”

**including some **
**interactions with **
**nitrogen deposition**

## Temperatures warm 

**Mote et al. 2003 (taken from Udall, WWA)**

- Temperatures warm
- more rapidly
- after 1950

- Precipitation?
- Variable

- Western Climate is Warming

## Hoerling, 2006

**Hoerling, 2006**

## Daily Temperatures Are Increasing

- For Tmin & Tmax, difference in monthly means from 1996 to 2005, versus historical averages (Yellowstone area)

***Saunders et al. 2006***

- Clow et al. 2003

## Local temperature trends

- _Elevations_
- Niwot D1 3743 m
- Grand      2274 m
- Boulder   1672 m
- Larimer   1525 m

## We are seeing record-breaking extremes

- Pagano et al. 2004, EOS

- Record-breaking high March temps,
- lack of precipitation in 100 yr record

**Record-setting peak snowmelt**

## Under various greenhouse forcings

**Climate models yield**
** ****1. fairly narrow range of warming scenarios and (amidst a broad overall range)**
**2. tendency for little precipitation change in California and most of the West.**

- Dettinger, 2005

***20 of 23 in this range***

***19 of 23 in this range***

- cm/month

- cm/month

## Observed Changes in Climate

- Warming
- Erratic precipitation
- Extreme drought
- Extreme storms (Mount Rainier)
- More warming projected

- So what??!!

## Earlier onset of spring snowmelt	 & less snowpack

**Snow season 16 days shorter in CA & NV (1951-1996)**

## Warming  significant hydroclimatic changes

**Knowles et al., 2006**

**Less snow/more rain**

**Earlier greenup**

**Cayan et al., 2001**

***TRENDS (1954-94) in ***
***Lilac first-bloom dates***

## The Glacier Next Door

**Boulder Daily Camera**

## Where will the largest (snowmelt) temperature effects occur?

- Computed from UW’s
- VIC model daily INPUTS
- (Bales et al, in press)

**Where will the largest (snowmelt) temperature effects occur?**

## Expected changes in 

**Expected changes in **
**FROZEN-SEASON LENGTH**
**30-60 days/year less in 2050 for ROMO**

**2025**

**2050**

- Derived from monthly IPCC GCM-grid pdfs, and UW’s VIC model daily inputs, 1950-1999

## Large wildfires increased suddenly and dramatically in mid-1980s in West

- More large wildfires
- Longer wildfire durations
- Longer wildfire seasons
- Strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt

- Westerling et al. 2006

## COLORADO

- McKenzie et al. 2004

**COLORADO**

**Temp ****°C**

**% Precip**

**0**

**0**

**Larger fires with **
**drier, warmer **
**climates**
**Climate is trending **
**warmer**

## McKenzie et al. 2004

## “If longer, more severe fire seasons are indeed an outcome of climate warming, the probability of losing local populations of species that depend on late seral habitat will increase.  ...contemporary landscapes have been altered by timber extraction, agriculture, and human settlements.  Options for suitable postfire habitat have been reduced, creating the potential for severe “bottlenecks” in space and time, particularly for species that have narrow habitat requirements, restricted distributions, or low mobility.”  

**McKenzie et al. 2004, Cons Biol. **

- Climate Change, Wildfire, and Conservation

## Observed Changes in Wildlife at Gothic, CO

- Inouye et al. PNAS 2000

- Marmots emerging 38 days earlier than in 1977

- Robins arriving 14 days earlier

## Some flowering plants strongly linked to snowpack

- Saavedra et al. GCB, 2003

**Photo::Daniel Mosquin**

- Dwarf Larkspur

## Grinnell Resurvey, YOSE

- Trapping 1914, 2002-2005
- Four new species moved into YOSE
- Four species have contracted their ranges
- Several species have shifted ranges up to 2000 m higher
- One species extirpated

## Ptarmigan model results 

- Ptarmigan model results
- under climate scenarios

- Ptarmigan on Thatchtop
- August 2005

## Some Species Like it Warmer!

- Elk (Wang et al. 2002)
- Pine Bark Beetle (Hicke et al. 2006)
- Cutthroat trout (Cooney 2003)
- Whirling Disease (Covich and Cooney 2003)
- West Nile Virus (CDC)

## Greenback Cutthroat Trout

**The endangered Greenback Cutthroat Trout require water **
**temperatures above 5 °C to successfully spawn**

**and 472 growing degree days for young trout to be able to overwinter **

## Slide 24

## Slide 25

## Slide 26

## Other changes that could occur 

- (besides earlier snowmelt, more wildfire):
- 1. Increased insects and disease
- 2. Narrowing of tundra regions, reduction
- of obligate tundra spp. habitat
- 3. Synergies with air pollution
- 4. More visitors
- 5. More elk
- 6. More cutthroat trout habitat, but also
- more potential for whirling disease

## Climate Change and Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition

- Synergies and Antagonisms

## NOx

- NO3  NH4  NOx
- NO NO2 NH3

**NOx**

**NH****3**

## NOx

- NO3  NH4  NOx
- NO NO2 NH3

**NOx**

**NH****3**

## Pathways and Effects of Excess Nitrogen Deposition

## Assessing ecological and biogeochemical responses to changing atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur depositionand climate for diverse ecosystems

- Melannie Hartman1, Jill Baron1,2, Dennis Ojima 1

**1**** Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, **
**Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO**
**2**** USGS**

**Notes:**
I’m going to discuss a cross-site model comparison exercise that my colleagues and I have 
been working on for about a year.  We input future potential scenarios of weather and N+S
deposition to ecosystem-geochemical model, DayCent-Chem, to evaluate the response if
a diverse set of ecosystems that includes 2 national parks and 4 LTER sites.  This exercise
was the merging of 3 models.  Deposition
scenarios are EPA projections based on the future implementation of the CAIR, with 
reduced NO3-N and SO4-S deposition at most sites, but with increased NH4-N deposition 
over the next 20 years. DayCent-Chem showed that stream [NO3] and [SO4] will subsequently 
decrease and ANC will increase except where NH4-N increases substantially. Climate scenarios 
are based on Penn State/MM5 downscaled model runs that show a warming rate of about 0.02
to 0.03 C per year. Sites that receive a large percentage of their precipitation as snow responded 
to the slight warming with a reduced snowfall and increased NPP.  

## 2 National Parks, 4 LTER sites

**2 National Parks, 4 LTER sites**

## Mount Rainier NP (MORA)

**Mount Rainier NP (MORA)**
**Lake Louise**

**Coweeta (CWT)**
**WS 2**

**Great Smoky NP  (GRSM)**
**Noland Divide**

**Hubbard Brook (HBR) WS 6**

**HJ Andrews (HJA)**
**WS 10 (clear cut 1975)**

**Niwot Ridge (NWT)**
**Green Lakes Valley**

**Notes:**
Hurculean data gathering exercise:
Necessary data not available at all sites.
Where available may be sparse or have missing values, 
different time intervals, different formats, units.
Tracing down data that exists, numerous contacts.

## Methods

- Calibrated DayCent-Chem on a subset of years with measurements (Q, stream & soil chemistry, NPP, mineralization, SOM)
- Pre-scenario: ~1980-2000
- drivers: measured meteorology, NADP, CASTNet
- Scenario: 2001-2050 with future climate and N,S deposition

## Deposition Scenarios

**CMAQ**** ****modeling system (U.S. EPA COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY).**
**wet and dry amounts N and S species **
**2001 Base case**
**2010, 2015, 2020 CAIR (Clean Air Interstate Rule)**
**Linearly interpolate for years in between**
**Each day: annual deposition / 365**

- Climate Scenarios

**  ****MM5**** ****(Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model) **
**  ****1976-2075 daily climate (lat, lon).**
**  ****no trend in precipitation for most sites**
**  ****+0.02-0.03 °C/year**

## The deposition scenarios for all sites

**The deposition scenarios for all sites**

**Notes:**
CAIR covers 28 eastern states and the District of Columbia. 
CAIR provides a Federal framework requiring states to reduce emissions of SO2 and NOx. 
On March 10, 2005, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) .
Through the use of the proven cap-and-trade approach, CAIR achieves substantial reductions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions.
SO2 and NOx contribute to the formation of fine particles and NOx contributes to the formation of ground-level ozone. 
States must achieve the required emission reductions using one of two compliance options: 1) meet the state’s emission budget by requiring power plants to participate in an EPA-administered interstate cap and trade system that caps emissions in two stages, or 2) meet an individual state emissions budget through measures of the state’s choosing.
In upcoming but closely related action, EPA will impose the first ever federally-mandated requirements that coal-fired electric utilities reduce their emissions of mercury. Together the Clean Air Mercury Rule and the Clean Air Interstate Rule create a multi-pollutant strategy to reduce emissions throughout the United States. 
CAIR Timeline
Promulgate CAIR Rule  2005
State Implementation Plans Due  2006
Phase I Cap in Place for NOx  2009
Phase I Cap in Place for SO2  2010
Phase II Cap in Place for NOx and SO2  2015

## Change from 85% to ~60% snow

**Change from 85% to ~60% snow**

**The climate scenarios for Niwot Ridge**

## Ecosystem responses to N, climate change

## Stream chemistry responses 

- Stream chemistry responses
- to N, climate change

## Interactions of climate change and nitrogen deposition

- Higher elevations likely to see longer, warmer, growing seasons: more N uptake, greater plant productivity
- Shifts in communities (Walker et al. 2006)
- Less N leaching to aquatic systems (Baron and Hartman 2002, Hartman et al. in prep)
- More productivity, more fuel (Fenn et al. 2003)
- More N content in leaves, more palatable to insects (Fenn et al 2003
- N promotes carbon (and N2O?) loss in peat bogs (Bragazza et al. 2006)

## Interactions of climate change and nitrogen deposition

- Lower elevations likely to see effective drought
- Lakes and streams receive less N (Schindler et al. 1996)
- Warming, drought, and acid change food web structure (algae, zooplankton switched to stress-tolerant species; Christensen et al. 2006)
- Storms can cause high N pulses into waters (Fenn et al. 1996)

## Summary

- Climate change trends already apparent
- Ecological responses range from simple
- Phenology, migration, extirpation
-  to complex
- Interactions of climate, fire, snowmelt, snowpack with habitat, species, diseases, pests
- Interactions with nitrogen appear subtle

## Barriers to Adapting to Climate Change

## What to do?

**Time to make a plan**