# Presentation: 534575

## National Weather ServiceTechnology Infusion Plan

**National Weather Service****Technology Infusion Plan**
***A Science and Technology Roadmap******to Weather Services in 2025***
**U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE**
**National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration**
**National Weather Service**
**Office of Science and Technology**
**Silver Spring, Maryland**
**October 2001**

**Overview of Forecasting Techniques & Product Methodologies Envisioned for the NWS Next and AfterNext Era**
*Presented by*
- Richard A. Wagoner
*National Center for Atmospheric Research*
*Boulder, Colorado*
- NWS Corporate Board Meeting
- 7-9 August, 2001
- Boulder, Colorado

## Some things to ponder

- Forecast and product preparation has been primarily a manual process for 125 years.
- Will this change over the next 25 years?
- How will technology drive the human/machine mix?
- How will technology influence the role of NWS personnel?
- The “2015 option” was considered 20 years ago.

## Trends: provider & user perspective

- User requirements are becoming increasingly demandingand complex.
*Demand for higher resolution information*
- County scale or 1 square mile?
- Section scale (1 square mile) for agriculturalists
- 1⁄2 hour time resolution instead of several hours
*Demand for “geo-located” information*
*Demand for higher accuracy*
*Demand for confidence/uncertainty information** *
- NWS in current human/machine mix and level of technology is not able to meet these new demands.
*Human workforce would be overwhelmed*
*Level of automation falls far short of need to meet future requirements*

## Current process for producing forecasts/warnings is a “push” paradigm

- Paradigm is 125 years old.
- Based on the idea that the NWS “knows best” what users want.
- User requirements are assessed but result is always a product suite that meets the “average user” needs.
- Technical constraints also limit the ability to meet all user needs.

## Current Forecast System Architecture

- NWP

- PostProcessing

- Analyses
- Forecasts
- Warnings

- Official Products

## NWS AfterNext System Architecture

***NWS AfterNext System Architecture***

- Human Forecaster*

- 6-D Database

- Human-derived Translation Algorithm(Experience)

- Dynamic Weights Adjusted

- Auto-verify Subsystem

- (* Selective intervention)

- Official

## Why new verification approaches? An example

- In all cases: POD=0, FAR=1, CSI=0

## NWS AfterNext System Architecture

***NWS AfterNext System Architecture***

- Human Forecaster*

- 6-D Database

- Human-derived Translation Algorithm(Experience)

- Dynamic Weights Adjusted

- Auto-verify Subsystem

- (* Selective intervention)

- Official

## Primary goal for NWS After-Next period (Holy Grail)

- Create and maintain a 6-dimensional gridded database that specifies all relevant atmospheric parameters. The following characteristics define the first 4 dimensions:
*0.5 km space resolution*
*5 min temporal resolution*
*1.0 km space resolution*
*30 min temporal resolution*
*2.0 km space resolution*
*1 hr temporal resolution*
*4.0 km space resolution*
*6 hr temporal resolution*
- Confidence metrics specified for all parameters

- 0 – 6 hrs

- 6 - 36 hrs

- 36 - 240 hrs

- 11 - 180 days

## Database dimension #5 – point data

- Point-oriented plane of the overall database
- Analysis & forecast information for any point that has a period of continuous recorded data
- Retains higher fidelity made possible by local data collected _exactly_ at the forecast location
- Allows dynamic tuning of the forecast variables by adjusting weights of data types

## Database dimension #6 – event data

- Captures data valid for _moving_ phenomena
*Hurricane eye locations (lat, long, MSLP, MSPD, speed, direction)*
*Boundaries (TSTM outflow, microburst, frontal)*
*Centroid & radius of volcanic plume*
*Low and high pressure centers*
- Contains primarily post-processed information from other planes of the 6-D database
- Can be used as triggering criteria for alerting systems or input to decision support systems
- Reminder: Official NWS information

## NWS AfterNext System Architecture

***NWS AfterNext System Architecture***

- Human Forecaster*

- 6-D Database

- Human-derived Translation Algorithm(Experience)

- Dynamic Weights Adjusted

- Auto-verify Subsystem

- (* Selective intervention)

- Official

## New “pull” paradigm for forecasts & warnings: build it and they will come

- New “pull” paradigm allows the end-user to tap the 6-D database and specify _any_ set of criteria for analyses, forecasts and alerts (thresholds, update frequency, lead time, etc.).
- If advertised well in advance and coordinated closely with the private sector, new stand-alone software products and new interactive services will grow rapidly. This vibrant, competitive market will serve the Nation with rich, low-cost weather information over a broad spectrum of specialized users.
*Software development companies will compete for the “killer weather app”.*
*Analogous to Navy implementation of GPS.*
- NWS will tap the same database to produce standard products for general public use.

## How do we get there?

- By the beginning of the NWS-**Next** period:
*Significant verification program that provides quantitative parallel measurements of model, IFPS, and hybrid post-processing technique performance using advanced verification methods at high time/space resolutions.*
*Establish several validation programs to determine the best combination of human, model, and post-processor inputs to the 6-D gridded database.*
*Begin development of a *_*national*_* boundary detection program.*

## How do we get there?

- By the beginning of the NWS **After-Next** period:
*Establish IOC for 6-D database.*
*Initiate best estimate of combined human, model and post-processor system. Continue to refine and adjust based on verification/validation system.*
*Implement IOC of national boundary detection system.*
*Move stepwise toward long term goals for the 6-D database (time/space resolution, enhanced model output, GOES-R multi-spectral data, polarimetric radar, and water vapor fields).*

## The End

**303-497-8404**
**wagoner@ucar.edu**