# Presentation: 064582

## Benefits of Using Production SimulationModels in Grid Planning

**Benefits of Using Production Simulation****Models in Grid Planning**

**Jeffrey Miller**
**Regional Transmission Manager – California ISO**
**September 14, 2004**

## Market Simulation Tool

- Hourly simulation of western interconnection with the typical objective of minimizing total production cost while respecting generation, transmission and operational constraints.
- Useful for predicting the economic and physical performance of large power networks.
- Tool has many other uses not directly related to Grid Planning (i.e., valuing FTR’s, energy trading insights, generation profitability, etc.)

## Market Simulation Tool

- Market Simulation

- User specified scenarios
- (gas/hydro)

- Additional Scenarios

- Generation
- capacity
- costs (fuel, O&M)
- outages
- min. up/down times

- Transmission
- network data
- constraints
- outages
- operation rules

- Load
- distribution
- hourly variations
- load forecast

**Market Simulation Tool**

- Others
- hydro data

- Unit Dispatch
- hourly dispatch
- capacity factors
- production cost

**Transmission**
**hourly flows**
**flow duration curves**
**congested paths/lines**
**shadow price**

- Prices
- LMP for loads
- LMP for generators

**Notes:**
This is the sort of model that we believe is best suited to modeling power market economics, in particular for the analysis of how the transmission network interacts with and constrains the power market, to examine where and under what conditions congestion arises and what costs this imposes on the system, and to simulate the effect of generation and transmission expansion on these costs.
Exactly the area that is of interest - both to us, in PAC’s RTO project team, and to yourselves in SSG-WI Planning WG.
There are many such models available: ranging from the work-horses such as MultiSym which is a well-established tool that lets traders and utilities minimise their production costs to meet their load obligations whilst respecting existing transmission rights and contracts via a transportation-type network model, and others such as MIDAS Gold that do the same.  Then there’s GE-Maps which models a centrally-dispatched market while representing the complete network through distribution factors; similar models are the latest  (threatened) release of Henwood, Alstom’s FTRO/SPD and LCG’s UPLAN, and our own particular preference - a PAC-customised version of ABB’s Market Simulator.
All of these do much the same job in much the same way, differing mainly in the detail in which they represent the transmission network, and the way they model the market rules and bidding strategies.  Other important differences, for the User, are the I/O interface and the ease with which ‘non-standard’ reports can be generated.  An equally important consideration is the cost and availability of a user license, and the cost of running and supporting the models.

## Example Benefits of Production Simulation Analysis

- Refining project design
- Technical comparison of project alternatives
- Effect on transmission paths
- Economic comparison of projects
- Effect on existing generation utilization
- Effect on use of  natural resources

## Tehachapi Example

**Tehachapi Example**

## Tehachapi Area

**Gates Peaker**

**Devers**

**Miguel**

**Lugo**

**Vincent**

**Midway**

**N. Gila**

**Moenkopi**

**Navajo (SRP)**

**Crystal River**

**Imperial Valley**

**Hassayampa**

**El Dorado**

**Palo Verde**

**4000 MW of renewable generation potential but no transmission**

_**Tehachapi Study Group**_
- 1) Develop transmission plans with power flow studies
- 2) Use production simulation to refine plan and evaluate economic benefits

## Production simulation requires hourly dispatch for wind over a year. 
Existing wind unit dispatch is based on historical data. 
New wind unit dispatch was developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and other stakeholders.
Assumed 70 meter rotor, 7.5 m/s speed and 2% unavailability. 
Resulted in 45% capacity factor.

- Existing wind unit dispatch is based on historical data.
- New wind unit dispatch was developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and other stakeholders.
- Assumed 70 meter rotor, 7.5 m/s speed and 2% unavailability.
- Resulted in 45% capacity factor.

**Tehachapi Generation Assumptions**** **

## Tehachapi Hourly Wind Profile

**(Developed by NREL and Other Stakeholders)**

## Tehachapi Wind Duration Curve

## Alternative 1 – Vincent Connection

**Gates Peaker**

**Devers**

**Miguel**

**Lugo**

**Vincent**

**Midway**

**N. Gila**

**Moenkopi**

**Navajo (SRP)**

**Crystal River**

**Imperial Valley**

**Hassayampa**

**El Dorado**

**Palo Verde**

**New Line**

- Tehachapi Transmission Plan

## Alternative 2 – Midway Connection

**Gates Peaker**

**Devers**

**Miguel**

**Lugo**

**Vincent**

**Midway**

**N. Gila**

**Moenkopi**

**Navajo (SRP)**

**Crystal River**

**Imperial Valley**

**Hassayampa**

**El Dorado**

**Palo Verde**

**New Line**

- Tehachapi Transmission Plan

## Example - Project Refinement

- Series compensation in the Tehachapi-Midway line

## Alternative 2: Midway Connection

## Alternative 2: Midway Connection

**Without Tehachapi – Midway Compensation**** **

## Example - Technical Comparison

- Midway Connection versus Vincent connection

## Alternative 1: Vincent Connection

## Alternative 2: Midway Connection

**Without Tehachapi – Midway Compensation**** **

## Example - Effect on  Transmission Paths

- Path 26 – Midway-Vincent
- Between Central California and Southern California
- Path 15 – Los Banos-Gates
- Between northern California and central California

## Alternative 1: Vincent Connection

## Alternative 2: Midway Connection

**Without Tehachapi – Midway Compensation**** **

## Example - Economic Comparison

- What are the changes in power costs to ISO Ratepayers for the Midway connection versus the Vincent connection?

## ISO Ratepayers Benefits (2008 $) Due to New Wind Generation and Transmission Plan

## Example - Effect on Existing Generation Utilization

- What generation is redispatched to accommodate the 4000 MW of Tehachapi wind generation?

## Alternative 1: Vincent Connection

**Wind Energy Flow**

## Alternative 2: Midway Connection

**Without Enforcing Path 26 Limit**
**Wind Energy Flow**

## Example - Effect on Use of  Natural Resources

- What is the impact of a transmission addition on natural gas consumption?

## Current STEP Transmission Plan

**Gates Peaker**

**Devers**

**Miguel**

**Lugo**

**Vincent**

**Midway**

**N. Gila**

**Moenkopi**

**Navajo (SRP)**

**Crystal River**

**Imperial Valley**

**Hassayampa**

**El Dorado**

**Palo Verde**

**Series Capacitor Upgrades**

**New Line**

***Voltage Support***

## Slide 28

## Questions?

**Questions?**