# Presentation: 007177

## Vision for Marine and Coastal  Services Digital Products

**Jamie Vavra**
**Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch**
**Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services**

-                           February 9, 2003

## Session Outline for Marine, Coastal, and Tropical Services

**Mission**
**Vision for Digital Products**
**Forecast Areas of Responsibility**
**Marine Elements in NDFD**
**Proposed Future Marine, Coastal, and Tropical Elements in NDFD**
**New Product Prototyping**
**Research Activities in Support of Proposed New Products**
**Wind Grids for Hurricane Events  **

## Marine and Coastal Weather Services Mission and Responsibilities

**To lead the U.S. Coastal and Marine weather forecast and warning programs for the protection of life and property, promotion of economic benefits, and the enhancement of quality of life.**
**Manage Products and Services for:**
***Tropical Cyclone Program ***
**Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)**
**Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)**
**Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)**
***Marine Program ***
**Ocean Prediction Center (OPC)**
**Tropical Prediction Center - Tropical Analysis Forecast Branch**
**Weather  Forecast Offices (WFOs)**
***Coastal and Great Lakes Program ***
** ****Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs)**

## Marine and Coastal Weather Service Vision for Digital Products

**Provide weather elements we now describe in text format in gridded and graphical formats**
**Extend from current deterministic approach for products to increase availability of gridded and graphical probabilistic forecasts**
**Provide seamless product suites from WFOs and National Centers**
**Extend products suite to include gridded and graphical threat outlooks for Marine, Coastal and Tropical hazards **

## NWS Offices with Marine and Tropical Responsibility

## Coastal Waters Forecast Zones

## Forecast Winds and Waves for Coastal Waters Zones

- WFO Portland,OR

## Forecast Winds and Waves for Nearshore and Open Lakes Zones

- Lake Superior Forecast by WFO Marquette,MI

## Marine and Tropical Forecast Zones

## Marine Offshore Graphics

## Marine High Seas Graphics

## Marine High Seas Graphics

## Initial Marine NDFD Elements

**Wave Height**
**General Weather Elements over Coastal Waters, Nearshore and Open Lake Marine Zones:**
***Air Temperature (tentatively)***
***Surface Wind Direction and Speed (10 meter)***
***Weather***

## Proposed Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements 

**Wave Period**
**Wave Steepness**
**Swell Height and Direction**
**Visibility **
**Ice Coverage**
**Ice Accretion**
**Extend spatial domain to provide these elements over the Offshore and High Seas Zones**

## Proposed Marine and Tropical NDFD Elements (continued)

**Threat Outlooks for Tropical Cyclone Hazards such as:**
***Waves, Surge, Tornados,  Flash Flood, and Wind  ***
**Threat Outlooks for Marine Hazardous Weather such as:**
*** ******Waterspouts and Rip Currents ***
**Probabilities of Wind Speed for Tropical Cyclones**
*** ******At 34 and 64 knot thresholds***
**Marine and Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings**

## Marine and Tropical New Product National Prototyping Plans

**Plans for Tropical Product**
***Graphical Hurricane Local Statement***
***Prototyping underway at WFO Melbourne, FL ***
***Planning tool for decision makers potentially impacted by tropical cyclones***
***Grid over coastal land and marine zones ***
***Tiered threat outlook scale for hazards***
***Display threat level for hazards such as:***
**Storm surge**
**Tornados**
**Flash Flood**
**Waves**
**Wind**

## Tropical New Product National Prototyping Plans

## Experimental Outlook for Hazards Associated with Tropical  Cyclones

- Moderate Threat Level for Marine Hazard associated with Tropical Storm Edouard

## Marine and Tropical New Product National Prototyping Plans

**Plans for Marine Product**
***Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook***
***Intended to support both recreational and commercial activities***
***Grid over land, surf and coastal marine zones***
***Tiered threat outlook scale for hazards***
***Display threat level for parameters such as:***
**Rip Currents**
**Waterspouts**
**Coastal Flooding**

## Research Activities in Support of New Marine and Tropical Products

**At the Ocean Prediction Center:**
***Evaluation of Storm Track Product ***
**At the Ocean Prediction and Tropical Prediction Centers:**
***Research proposal funded to develop and distribute gridded wind fields***
**Enhanced Wind Analyses based upon blend of:**
***Remotely sensed wind vectors***
***Numerical Model analyses***
***Observational data***
**At the Tropical Prediction Center**
***Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Probabilities ***

## Research Activities in Support of Proposed New Marine Products

- Predominant Storm Track graphically depicted in white

## Research Activities Using Scatterometer Wind Vector Data

## Research Activities For Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Probabilities

- 72 hour probability of 34 knot winds from Hurricane Lili historical analysis

## Hurricane Force Wind Grids Associated with Tropical Cyclones

**Potential for significant track error **
**10 year average 72 hour forecast track error = 222 nautical miles**
**Lack scientific capability for predicting extreme events in extended forecast period**
**Team established to make policy recommendations and define procedures **

## Example of Hurricane Force Winds  associated with Hurricane Andrew

_**Issue:**_ Beyond the 24 hour forecast period, should we depict hurricane force  winds in NDFD?

## Marine and Coastal Services Contacts

**For additional information on our products and services visit our Internet pages:**
***Marine and Coastal Services***
_**[http://weather.gov/om/marine/home.htm](http://weather.gov/om/marine/home.htm)**_
***Ocean Prediction Center***
_**[http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/](http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/)**_
***Tropical Prediction Center***
_**[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)**_
**We welcome your feedback on our plans for Marine, Coastal and Tropical Products**
***Send comments and questions to ***
_**[Jamie.](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**__**[Vavra](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**__**[@](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**__**[noaa](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**__**[.](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**__**[gov](mailto:Jamie.Vavra@noaa.gov)**_
**301-713-1677 x 111**