# Presentation: 125615

## International Polar Year Activities and the Alaska Science Center

## Glaciers

**Glaciers**

**Glacier Volume Changes in the Gulf of Alaska **
**Glacial retreat from the 1950’s to 1990’s in Alaska produced approximately 8% of the total runoff from Alaska**

**Portage Glacier in southcentral Alaska**
**receded almost 5 kilometers from the **
**early 1900s to 1999. The red line on 1984**
**photo indicates the glacier terminus location **
**in 1999. **

- 1914

- 1972

- 1984

- 1972

- 1984

**Notes:**
Glacier Volume Change
Glaciers in Alaska are the source of approximately 35% of Alaska’s runoff; an amount equal to 10% of the total runoff from the nation. Glacier shrinkage from the mid-1950’s to the mid-1990’s produced approximately 8% of the total runoff from Alaska. Glaciers affect the timing, quality, and amount of runoff. Glaciers also affect the nature, timing, and location of some physical and hydrologic hazards. 
Snow pits such as this one are used to determine seasonal snow accumulation at various locations on glaciers in the USGS Benchmark Glacier Monitoring Program. Three glaciers--Gulkana and Wolverine Glaciers in Alaska, and South Cascade Glacier in Washington--are being monitored for mass balance. The Benchmark Glacier Monitoring Program began as a result of the International Geophysical Year, 50 years ago. Detailed studies of mass balance over several decades have produced a dramatic record of ice loss through both thinning and retreat. Long-term data sets such as these are invaluable for climate change research.

Benchmark Glaciers
The glaciers along the southern gulf coast of Alaska are some of the largest ice masses on Earth outside of Greenland and Antarctica. 
Assessment of the volume change of these glaciers is a recognized need. 
It is proposed to remap these three glaciers and thereby validate the profile extrapolations of previous workers and document a new temporal step in the volume change of these important glaciers. 
Because small glaciers respond to climate even more quickly than do large glaciers, they are sensitive additions to the observation group. Even their total demise would be important evidence of change. 

OBJECTIVES: Publish and interpret modern large scale maps of the glaciers near the Gulf of Alaska based on either very high resolution satellite imagery or aerial photography. Analyze all mapping of the glaciers and publish an interpretation of the changes in ice volume, perimeter, terminus position, and area-altitude distribution and include the current measurements of the mass balance, meteorological variables, and runoff. 

## Glaciers

**Augmentation of USGS Benchmark Glaciers in Alaska**** **
**Gulkana and Wolverine Glaciers in Alaska, and South Cascade Glacier in Washington**

**Notes:**
Glacier Volume Change
Glaciers in Alaska are the source of approximately 35% of Alaska’s runoff; an amount equal to 10% of the total runoff from the nation. Glacier shrinkage from the mid-1950’s to the mid-1990’s produced approximately 8% of the total runoff from Alaska. Glaciers affect the timing, quality, and amount of runoff. Glaciers also affect the nature, timing, and location of some physical and hydrologic hazards. 
Snow pits such as this one are used to determine seasonal snow accumulation at various locations on glaciers in the USGS Benchmark Glacier Monitoring Program. Three glaciers--Gulkana and Wolverine Glaciers in Alaska, and South Cascade Glacier in Washington--are being monitored for mass balance. The Benchmark Glacier Monitoring Program began as a result of the International Geophysical Year, 50 years ago. Detailed studies of mass balance over several decades have produced a dramatic record of ice loss through both thinning and retreat. Long-term data sets such as these are invaluable for climate change research.

Benchmark Glaciers
The glaciers along the southern gulf coast of Alaska are some of the largest ice masses on Earth outside of Greenland and Antarctica. 
Assessment of the volume change of these glaciers is a recognized need. 
It is proposed to remap these three glaciers and thereby validate the profile extrapolations of previous workers and document a new temporal step in the volume change of these important glaciers. 
Because small glaciers respond to climate even more quickly than do large glaciers, they are sensitive additions to the observation group. Even their total demise would be important evidence of change. 

OBJECTIVES: Publish and interpret modern large scale maps of the glaciers near the Gulf of Alaska based on either very high resolution satellite imagery or aerial photography. Analyze all mapping of the glaciers and publish an interpretation of the changes in ice volume, perimeter, terminus position, and area-altitude distribution and include the current measurements of the mass balance, meteorological variables, and runoff. 

## Arctic Landscape Change in Response to a Changing Climate

**Response of Fish and Wildlife to Ecological Change on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska**** **
**Quantification of the distribution of terrestrial, and coastal habitats over spatial and temporal frameworks on the ACP**

- Borehole Temperatures

- Changing lake shoreline habitat

- Changing Coastal Dynamics

- 2005

**Notes:**
The Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) region of Alaska contains the vast majority of the nation’s arctic tundra ecosystems. 
This region has seen both minor and major changes to the land surface in recent decades.  
Some of the most common indicators of environmental change are alterations in land form, which can affect the biophysical patterns and processes within hydrologic and terrestrial systems.  In many cases these changes are natural phenomena.  
Lakes in the area have drained and then refilled, streams and rivers have altered their course, and shoreline erosion has changed the configuration of the coastline.  
Models indicate that air temperatures on the ACP will increase 7 degrees C during the winter (4 degrees mean-annual warming) with a 20—30 day increase in the summer growing season.
Warmer temperatures, a longer growing season, and changes in soil moisture are expected to induce large changes in vegetation on the ACP.  
These physical processes of ecological change directly affect attributes of habitats that are vital to migratory birds, terrestrial mammals, and fishes, and the indigenous arctic people that depend on these resources.  
OBJECTIVES: 1) Develop a landscape and physiognomic-based habitat GIS using remotely sensed data and previously established land form classification systems, 2) compare current land form classifications with historic data on habitat distribution to assess change at scales relevant to managers, 3) examine long-term data sets for changes in avian, mammalian, and fish populations that are correlated with changes in habitat, 4) use areas of indicated habitat change with correlated animal population change to assess habitat factors influencing dynamics of animals, 5) establish to what extent current habitat changes on the ACP are linked to climate change, and 6) project how critical habitats will respond to future climate changes.

## Arctic Landscape Change in Response to a Changing Climate

**Response of Fish and Wildlife to Ecological Change on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska**** **
**examine how changes in pertinent habitats correlate to the spatial and temporal changes in populations of fish and wildlife****. **

- Changes in habitat due to lake drainage, coastal erosion, and increased storm surges

**Notes:**
Current changes in habitats may be having an influence on the westward movement of habitat preferences used by geese:
White-fronted geese are moving from Stratum 1 to 2
Pacific black brant are moving from Stratum 2 to 3
Stratum 3 has more saline tolerant plants and brant are more adapted to using those types of plants as a food source

## Sea-Ice Change and Arctic Wildlife

**Changes in climate are predicted to have a major effect on the polar ice sheet**

**Arctic Ocean**
**(September 2005)**
**Record Minimum**

**Notes:**
The USGS conducts long-term research on polar bears, Pacific walruses, and their sea ice habitats. Current models predict an ice free environment in 50-100 years.  These DOI trust species are dependent on the sea ice for many life cycle requirements, and projected sea ice changes are expected to have significant impacts on their populations.  
The DOI has management authority for these species and needs reliable scientific information to support decision-making (e.g., the current petition to list polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act; oil and gas exploration and leasing programs in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas).  
Anticipated products from ongoing USGS research during the IPY period include:
Resource selection function model of polar bear ice habitat preferences;  
Analysis of past and present polar bear population size;
Past changes in polar bear sex and age composition, body condition, and morphometry;
Estimate of Pacific walrus population size;
Pacific walrus stock delineation;
Analysis of walrus movements and haul-out behaviors relative to meteorological conditions and sea ice dynamics;
Retrospective analyses of seasonal sea ice melt and freeze dynamics.

## Sea-Ice Change and Arctic Wildlife

**Sea-Ice Change and Arctic Wildlife**

**Linkages of changing sea ice extent and possible effects on polar bears and walrus**

**Walrus **
** ****Change in extent due to decreasing ice cap**

- Polar Bears
-  bears summer over deep water
-  reduced size
-  poorer survival
-  Anecdotal Sightings
-  _**Effect on  population size?**_** **

**Notes:**
The USGS conducts long-term research on polar bears, Pacific walruses, and their sea ice habitats. Current models predict an ice free environment in 50-100 years.  These DOI trust species are dependent on the sea ice for many life cycle requirements, and projected sea ice changes are expected to have significant impacts on their populations.  
The DOI has management authority for these species and needs reliable scientific information to support decision-making (e.g., the current petition to list polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act; oil and gas exploration and leasing programs in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas).  
Anticipated products from ongoing USGS research during the IPY period include:
Resource selection function model of polar bear ice habitat preferences;  
Analysis of past and present polar bear population size;
Past changes in polar bear sex and age composition, body condition, and morphometry;
Estimate of Pacific walrus population size;
Pacific walrus stock delineation;
Analysis of walrus movements and haul-out behaviors relative to meteorological conditions and sea ice dynamics;
Retrospective analyses of seasonal sea ice melt and freeze dynamics.

## Circumpolar Geologic Map

**Circum-polar bedrock geologic map  **
**	**** ****	****- north of 60****o**** latitude**
**Participants: Canada, Denmark, Greenland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, United States**
**Workshops: Calgary, Alberta, Canada Feb. 2006; Anchorage, Alaska, USA March 2007**