# Presentation: 462043

## Climate change: a growing challenge for the US and the World

- Dr R K Pachauri
- Chairman IPCC &
- Director General TERI
- 4th December 2002

**WMO**

## The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change

- Autonomous body established by WMO and UNEP in 1988

## The Mandate 

- IPCC assesses  scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.
- It does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other relevant parameters.
- IPCC reports are ***neutral with respect to policy***, although they may need to deal objectively with scientific, technical and socio-economic factors ***relevant to the application of particular policies.***

## IPCC Structure  

## The Principles 

- The experts represented in the IPCC are geographically balanced and cover all the IPCC regions
- IPCC bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.
- The IPCC process ensures objectivity, transparency, openness by allowing rigorous review  of all its reports
- The review process involves experts  who have expertise in specific areas, experts chosen by governments and experts chosen by appropriate organizations

## The Process

## The IPCC outputs 

- The **Assessment Reports** consist of 3 Volumes
- Working Group I - assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.
- Working Group II - addresses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it.
- Working Group III - assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change.
- Each of WG reports are accompanied by a Summary for Policy Makers and a Technical Summary

## The Task Force on Inventory (TFI) -  has developed the  GHG National  Inventories (Methodology and Worksheets) and the Good Practice Guidance 

Special Reports on specific issues 

Technical papers 

Synthesis Report - Scientific responses to specific policy relevant questions

**Special Reports **on specific issues
**Technical papers**
**Synthesis Report - **Scientific responses to specific policy relevant questions

## The Current Bureau of  the IPCC

- Issues, priorities and the way forward

## The Fourth Assessment Report

- Improved  coordination between the WGs  to produce an integrated assessment of the status of scientific knowledge -addressing cross cutting issues by adopting specific themes for AR4
- Effort would be made to make it more ‘policy relevant’ by attempting to provide the public with
- better regional scale assessment
- quantification of uncertainties  and
- assessment of the link between climate change and development
- risk management -options for hedging risks?

## This round of assessment would also focus on integrated approaches to adaptation and mitigation in minimising climate related damages 

Focus on developing countries 
Inspire further research
involve experts as lead authors

Provide adequate coverage on socio-economic  analysis of actions (adaptation and /or mitigation) Vs inaction and co benefits at a regional level

Preserving and enhancing the scientific integrity and credibility of IPCC outputs 

- Focus on developing countries** **
- Inspire further research
- involve experts as lead authors
- Provide adequate coverage on socio-economic  analysis of actions (adaptation and /or mitigation) Vs inaction and co benefits at a regional level
- Preserving and enhancing the scientific integrity and credibility of IPCC outputs

## Reaching out

**Creation of a Task Group on Communication**
- Undertake outreach activities to communicate IPCC findings in all parts of the world
- The target groups would be policy makers, researchers, academics, industrial managers, students and the general public
- Production and distribution of popular versions  of IPCC reports
- Using electronic media  for outreach- CD ROMs of IPCC reports

## www.ipcc.ch

- The IPCC website  receives more than a million hits per month on an average (Figure is higher when new reports and documents are posted on the site)
- The website
- contains details about IPCC, its activities and schedules
- is an archive of meeting documents
- contains press releases, speeches and presentations  made at major events
- Full text of IPCC reports

## Interacting with other global conventions such as CBD 

Using Special Reports and Technical Papers to highlight climate linkages with sectoral issues

Working with industry organisations and NGOs - consultation and interaction with a range of stakeholders 

Going beyond academic community and involving other experts for advisory and review functions 

- Using Special Reports and Technical Papers to highlight climate linkages with sectoral issues
- Working with industry organisations and NGOs - consultation and interaction with a range of stakeholders
- Going beyond academic community and involving other experts for advisory and review functions

- Synergising the IPCC effort

## The main conclusions of TAR

- There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
- Emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning are virtually certain to be the dominant influence on the trends in the atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 21st century
- Significant technological and biological potential exists for near term mitigation
- Several ‘no regret’ mitigation options exist
- Adaptation is no longer an option but a necessity -its costs can be reduced by anticipation and planning
- Mitigation along with adaptation can contribute to sustainable development

## Signs of something amiss

- Texas -deadly heat wave 1998
- Florida - June heat wave 1998
- New York city - Record heat July 1999
- Wisconsin-Fewer days of ice cover
- Washington DC- cherry trees blossoming earlier
- California- butterfly range shift (Edith’s checkerspot butterfly)
- Alaska- sea bird population declined
- Monterrey Bay, California - Shoreline sea life shifting northwards
- Texas- Record downpour 1998
- New England- double normal rainfall 1998

## The key areas of concern for the US 

- Water Resources
- Changes in flow regimes - mean annual flows, seasonal flow, probability of extreme high flow
- Shift towards higher winter flows is likely to lead to greater flooding (River Sierra flows could be 20 times greater in the very wet years than in the dry years)
- Clear mountain lakes, coastal waters and rivers could get murky and polluted as most of the precipitation would occur in the form of rain
- Increased open water evaporation -  declines in lake levels in some cases
- Retreat of glaciers in NA will affect water resources

**Notes:**
Shifts in the amount or timing of freshwater runoff due to climate change can alter conditions in California’s bays and estuaries. More winter run offs may bring larger sediment flows into coastal water, while less summer stream would increase salinity and impact fish that use the bays as nursery grounds

- Natural Resources
- With warmer and drier summers, wildfires could become more frequent
-  Shift of tree line northwards will cause the alpine tundra to shrink
- Changes in phenology of plants and animals may disrupt the vital interactions within the biological component of the ecosystem
- The pest regimes may change and warmer climate could increase the incidence of pests eg outbreak of pine bark beetle may become more prominent or destructive
- Despite the fertilising effect of a CO2 enriched atmosphere, forest productivity may be reduced by these factors

## Wild Life 
Loss of habitat due to climate related shifts of ecosystems - isolated ecosystems particularly vulnerable

Impacts on fish population due to warmer temperatures, seasonal flow regimes, lake levels
In California cold-water fish species greenspotted rockfish has dropped by half since the 1970s, and the proportion of southern warm-water fish species Garibaldi has increased nearly 50% (Confronting Climate Change in California - The Union of Concerned Scientists)
Increased drought conditions north of the Great Plains  will significantly reduce the US breeding duck population

- Wild Life
- Loss of habitat due to climate related shifts of ecosystems - isolated ecosystems particularly vulnerable
- Impacts on fish population due to warmer temperatures, seasonal flow regimes, lake levels
- In California cold-water fish species greenspotted rockfish has dropped by half since the 1970s, and the proportion of southern warm-water fish species Garibaldi has increased nearly 50% (*Confronting Climate Change in California - The Union of Concerned Scientists*)
- Increased drought conditions north of the Great Plains  will significantly reduce the US breeding duck population

## Changing coastal marine ecosystem 

- Source: Confronting Climate Change in California - The Union of Concerned Scientists

## Human risks 
Greater incidences of extreme weather events - heat waves, hurricanes, landslides

Spread of diseases- warmer climate would favour the spread of pathogen carrying vectors

Economic losses 
Agriculture would be affected due to water  scarcity - 87% of California’s crop area is irrigated
Enhanced growth of crop under warmer conditions could reduce yields
Increased ground water salinity resulting from more frequent and serious drought  and salt water intrusion could negatively impact the region’s aquaculture industry

- Greater incidences of extreme weather events - heat waves, hurricanes, landslides
- Spread of diseases- warmer climate would favour the spread of pathogen carrying vectors
- Economic losses
- Agriculture would be affected due to water  scarcity - 87% of California’s crop area is irrigated
- Enhanced growth of crop under warmer conditions could reduce yields
- Increased ground water salinity resulting from more frequent and serious drought  and salt water intrusion could negatively impact the region’s aquaculture industry

## Greater health risks from storm runoff

- Source: Confronting Climate Change in California - The Union of Concerned Scientists

**Notes:**
Many of Santa Barbara’s beaches were closed in1998 due to high bacterial counts due to the intense El Nino storm run off.  This is an indication of how increased precipitation in the form of rain could result in health hazard such as this. A and B shows large areas of Santa Barbara channel covered with El Nino storm water os 1998 (Yellowish green). These are also seen in the aerial photos C&D

- Source: IPCC TAR

## Mitigating climate change 

- Adopting new technologies for power generation
- Investing in R&D of new technologies - fuel cell, sequestration
- Increasing the share of renewable energy
- Rationalizing energy tariffs

## Slide 26