# Presentation: 365155

## Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative

*Bringing the Promise of Simulation Science to the Challenge of Climate Change*

##  Cost of Stabilization(Trillions of 1990 US $, Discounted 1990-2100 @ 5%)

- Source:  Dr. J. A. Edmonds, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

## 1990-1992. Bounding global climate change:  Is there a problem?
A few, coarse resolution equilibrium model runs
1993-1998. Estimating future climate change: How big is the problem?
~10 medium resolution time-dependent runs
1999-2003. Predicting details of greenhouse gas scenarios: How to manage the problem?
Requires many (~1000) high resolution, time-dependent runs

- 1990-1992. Bounding global climate change:  Is there a problem?
- A few, coarse resolution equilibrium model runs
- 1993-1998. Estimating future climate change: How big is the problem?
- ~10 medium resolution time-dependent runs
- 1999-2003. Predicting details of greenhouse gas scenarios: How to manage the problem?
- Requires many (~1000) high resolution, time-dependent runs

## ACPI Goals

- To accelerate progress in climate model development and application;
- To substantially reduce the uncertainties in decade-to-century model-based projections of climate change; and
- To increase the availability and usability of climate change projections to the broader climate change research and assessment communities.

## ACPI Structure

- Model development and evaluation
- Atmosphere/ocean/land surface/sea ice components, coupled models, process parameterizations, simulation design, algorithm development
- Climate projections
- Optimization of computer performance, multi-decadal ensemble simulations, archives of petabyte datasets, generation of probability distributions
- Assessment and analysis of impacts
- Policy evaluation, impacts research, regional/national/international assessments, specialized tools and datasets, information dissemination

## ACPI Technical Approach

## The Collaboration Network Fabric

- is Essential to Link
- Institutions and People

- Regional Collaboration Centers

- Climate Data Centers

- Model Development Sites

- Terascale Computer Centers

- Model Simulation Database

## Estimated Computing Needs:10-40 TFLOPS Sustained

***Weather Scale Resolution******	******       Ensemble Runs***
- Ocean		10 km			10 scenarios
- Atmosphere	30 km			10 realizations/
- Land surface	  1 km			   scenario
***Processes***
- Cloud-radiation interaction
- Biogeochemistry and hydrology
- Aerosols and non-CO2 greenhouse gases
- Surface-atmosphere exchange

## Overlapping Development/Evaluation/Application Cycles 

- 300 km atm
- 100 km ocn

- 140 km atm
- 30 km ocn

- 70 km atm
- 15 km ocn

- 30 km atm
- 9 km ocn

- 30 km atm
- 9 km ocn

- 1013 Flops

- 70 km atm
- 15 km ocn

- 140 km atm
- 30 km ocn

- 30 km atm
- 9 km ocn

- 70 km atm
- 15 km ocn

**97**

**98**

**99**

**00**

**01**

**02**

**03**

- 1014 Flops

- Component
- Models

- Coupled
- Model Runs

- Ensemble
- Forecasts

- needed application speed gain -->

- 500X

- 1012 Flops

- 50 X

## Accurate and verifiable projections of climate change at regional resolution
Statistically meaningful measures of natural variability
Multiple scenarios to evaluate emission reduction strategies
Completion of IPCC assessment by 2005

- Accurate and verifiable projections of climate change at regional resolution
- Statistically meaningful measures of natural variability
- Multiple scenarios to evaluate emission reduction strategies
- Completion of IPCC assessment by 2005

## Regional Climate Collaboration Centers

- Purpose is to develop & disseminate climate projection products
- Primary access points to large petabyte-sized projection databases
- Downscaled projections suitable for impacts research
- Tools and databases to allow the production & delivery of specialized data sets (water resources, agriculture, etc)
- Research on mesoscale climate change & impacts
- Extensive collaboration network with regional universities and research centers

## ACPI Requires Advanced  Infrastructure and Environments

- Virtual Laboratory Collaboration Fabric
- Advances in storage, analysis and visualization of petabyte datasets
- Multi-institutional problem solving environment
- Regional collaboratories for assessment and impacts research
- Terascale Computing Systems
- Better numerical and computational methods for parallel systems
- Breakthroughs in scaling for parallel systems

## Implementation Strategy

**Multi-site, single-project climate prediction center:** Expand current investments to build a multi-disciplinary climate prediction center based on accelerated computing and collaborative technology
**Climate research collaboration fabric:** Research, development, and implementation of a multi-center network and infrastructure fabric to provide effective access to and utilization of multi-petabyte climate simulations
**Modeling and simulation codes:**** **Multi-disciplinary** **research, development, and integration of climate model components at requisite resolutions, with full physics, on scalable software framework
**Climate predictability and theory:** Quantitative understanding of the theoretical limits to global/regional climate predictability.
**Model Evaluation and Intercomparison:** From historical, ARM, EOS, GCOS and other  data sets, develop community standard***  ***time-dependent data sets of climate variability and change* *
**Establish Regional Collaboration Centers:** Mechanisms to disseminate value-added information from projections for climate research

## ACPI Status

- ACPI Concept and Requirements Document Completed
- JASON/USGCRP Meeting July 1-3
- SSP Workshop Scheduled for July 29-31

## Who is Involved?

- Writing Team Includes Participants from:
- ANL			NOAA/NCDC
- PNNL			NOAA/GFDL
- LBNL			NCAR
- LLNL			NASA/GSFC/DAO
- ORNL			DOE/OBER
- LANL			DOE/OCTR
- UCSD-Scripps Inst. Of Oceanography

## Conceptual ACPI Organization

- ER/BER

- ER/CTR

- Model Development Sites

- ACPI Coordinating Committee

- ACPI Coord. Com. Chair

- SSI Coordination Office

- Small Projects & Grants

- Small Projects & Grants

- ACPI Advisory
- Group

- Funding/ Accountability

- Information flow

## Climate Modeling Sociology

*Climate modelers*: Please just leave us alone to do our science, and by the way the planet's in big trouble and send us more money
*Engineers*: For mucho dinero, we can build you a really really fast computer and solve all your problems
*Managers*: We need to run a workshop, write a plan, start a program, and create a center
*Policy makers*: The climate models don't really give us what we want, so let's go ahead and make our decisions without them