# Presentation: 664583

## Results from Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) 2004 programs

**Lacey Holland**              SAIC at EMC/NCEP
**Yucheng Song**             IMSG at EMC/NCEP
**Zoltan Toth**                     EMC/NCEP/NWS
**Jon Moskaitis**                                    MIT
**Sharan Majumdar**              Univ. of Miami
**Craig H. Bishop**                                 NRL
**Roy Smith**                       NCO/NCEP/NWS

## Acknowledgments

- NWS field offices, HPC/NCEP and SDMs
- NOAA G-IV and the USAFR C-130 flight crews
- CARCAH (John Pavone)
- Jack Woollen - EMC
- Russ Treadon - EMC
- Mark Iredell - EMC
- Istvan Szunyogh – Univ. of Maryland
*+ others who have contributed!*

## About the Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) Program

- Took place 21 Jan – 17 March 2004
- Dropwinsonde observations taken over the NE Pacific by aircraft operated by NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center (G-IV) and the US Air Force Reserve (C-130s).
- Observations are adaptive –
- collected only prior to significant winter weather events of interest
- in areas that influence the forecast the most.
- Previous forecasts improved in 60-80% of targeted cases (in past studies)
- Operational since January 2001
- 36 flights, around 720 dropsondes this winter

## Evaluation methodology

- Compare analysis and forecast cycles from the GFS at T126L28 resolution including all operationally available data (includes dropsondes); the other excludes only dropsonde data - to evaluate the data impact
- Verify against observations over the pre-selected area of interest (verification region)
- Rawinsonde observations for surface pressure, 1000-250 hPa temperature, and other fields
- Rain gauge data for precipitation

## Results for Surface Pressure

- Of the cases:
- 21 improved
- 0 neutral
- 14 degraded

## Results for Temperature

- Of the cases:
- 24 improved
- 1 neutral
- 10 degraded

## Results for Vector Wind

- Of all cases:
- 23 improved
- 1 neutral
- 11 degraded

## Results for Specific Humidity

- Of all cases:
- 22 improved
- 0   neutral
- 13 degraded

## Breakdown for cases

| Variable | # cases improved | # cases neutral | #cases degraded |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Surface pressure | 21 | 0 | 14 |
| Temperature | 24 | 1 | 10 |
| Vector Wind | 23 | 1 | 11 |
| Humidity | 22 | 0 | 13 |

## Individual Case Comparison

-   **1    denotes positive effect**
**  ****0    denotes neutral effect**
** ****-1  denotes negative effect**

- VR  OBSDATE   P    T    V   OVERALL   REGION  FHOUR
-   W 20040129   1    1    1    1     123W ,43N    36
-   E 20040201  -1    1    1    1      78W ,38N    60
-   E 20040202  -1    1    1    1      77W ,40N    36
-  AK 20040205  -1   -1    1   -1     140W ,60N    24
-   E 20040205   1    1    1    1      75W ,38N    48
-   E 20040208  -1   -1    1   -1      86W ,31N    72
-  AK 20040209   1    1    1    1     133W ,56N    48
-  AK 20040210  -1    1    1    1     133W ,56N    24
-   W 20040213   1    1   -1    1     120W ,44N    36
-   E 20040215   1   -1    1    1      77W ,35N    96
-   W 20040216  -1    1   -1   -1     123W ,41N    48
-   E 20040216  -1    0   -1   -1      75W ,35N    72
-   W 20040217   1    1    1    1     122W ,39N    24
-   W 20040218   1    1    0    1     122W ,39N    24
-   W 20040221   1    1   -1    1     117W ,34N    48
-   W 20040222  -1    1    1    1     117W ,34N    24
-   C 20040223   1    1    1    1      97W ,34N    48
-   W 20040224   1    1   -1    1     120W ,35N    48
-   W 20040225   1   -1    1    1     120W ,35N    24
-   C 20040226   1    1    1    1      93W ,37N    96
-   H 20040227   1   -1    1    1     158W ,21N    24
-   C 20040302   1    1    1    1      91W ,38N    60
-  AK 20040306  -1   -1   -1   -1     127W ,50N    36
-  AK 20040306  -1   -1   -1   -1     136W ,58N    36
-   E 20040306   1    1    1    1      71W ,42N    60
-  AK 20040307   1   -1   -1   -1     132W ,54N    12
-   E 20040307   1    1    1    1      71W ,42N    84
-   E 20040308  -1    1   -1   -1      75W ,35N    48
-   H 20040309  -1   -1   -1   -1     150W ,25N    24
-  AK 20040312   1    1    1    1     138W ,60N    48
-   C 20040312   1    1    1    1      90W ,35N    72
-  AK 20040313   1    1    1    1     133W ,55N    24
-   C 20040313  -1   -1   -1   -1      90W ,40N    48
-   E 20040315  -1    1    1    1      75W ,40N    84
-   E 20040317   1    1    1    1      75W ,41N    60