# Presentation: 147191

## PROSPECTIVE 

_***R & D BENEFITS FRAMEWORK***_
**Robert L. Hirsch**
**March 4, 2002**

**RAND**

## This Presentation

**  ****Academies Framework**
**  ****Need, Opportunity or Regulatory Forcing  **
**  ****Goals, Targets, Markets, Competition**
**  ****Prospective Framework Elements**
**  ****Concluding Remarks**

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## RETROSPECTIVE BENEFITS MATRIX

_***RETROSPECTIVE BENEFITS MATRIX***_
_***For R & D Project Evaluation***_

_**Realized**_** Benefits**

_**Options**_** ****Benefits**

_**Knowledge**_** Benefits**

_**Economic**_** ****Benefits**

_**Environmental    **_**Benefits**

_**Security **_**Benefits**

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## Measuring DOE R, D & D Benefits

_**Measuring DOE R, D & D Benefits**_

**Benefits**

**Time**

**Variable Depending on Many Factors - **_**Academies Assumed 5 years**_
**Could be years to a decade or more.**

**What Would Have Happened Anyway (Industry/Foreign)**

**RAND**

**DOE Cosponsored Product Enters the Market**

## Frame Change

**Hindsight-  Most known.**

**Foresight-      Many Unknowns****!**

_**Retrospective:**_
_**Academies Study**_** **

_**Prospective:**_
_**Today’s Challenge**_

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## Where the Project Starting From?

**1.  **_**NEED**_
_**Customers**_** did their own planning, assessments & priorities & found a **_**GAP.**_
**2.  **_**OPPORTUNITY**_
**Usually an idea by a **_**technologist or a planner**_**.  Usually **_**requires marketing**_** to convince others.**
**3.  **_**REGULATORY FORCING**_
**A technology that is to be regulated into the market.  **

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##   Goal:  A competitively attractive innovation.

**  **_**Questions:**_
**	****1.  Why a **_**Government**__ __**Role**_**?**
**	****2.  Is the target **_**Go-to-Market**_** or **_**Option**_**?**
**  **_**Requirement:**_**  **_**Understand the competition**_** - products currently in the market & how those products are likely to be improved in the intervening period. **
**  **

_***NEEDS & OPPORTUNITIES***_

**  **

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## EXCELLENT SOURCE FOR INFORMATION ON THE COMPETITION

_***EIA Annual Energy Outlook***_
_***Example ***_

**Time**

**PHOTOVOLTAICS**

**RAND**

**Projected Installed Cost ($/kw)**

**2000****	****2005****	****2010****	****2015****	****2020**

**0**

**2000**

**4000**

**6000**

**8000**

**o**

**o**

**o**

**o**

**GAS MICROTURBINES**

***EIA/AEO 2001***

## New Technology Hurdles

_***New Technology Hurdles***_

_**Existing Technology**_
**Costs****	****	**** Known**
**Performance****	**** Known**
**Reliability ****	**** Known**
**Service ****	****	**** Known**
**Regulatory****	**** Known**
**Risks****	****	**** Known**
**Wastes****	****	**** Known**
**Shortcomings****	**** Known**
**Life****	****	**** Known**

_**New Technology**_
**To be of **_**free-market**_** interest, a new technology must provide significant benefits beyond what already exists.**
**All else equal, its **_**costs**_** must be**
**> 20%**
**better than what exists to overcome **_**unknowns & risks**_**.**
_**Otherwise:**_** **
**Government Incentives or Regulatory Change?**

## R & D PROJECT REQUIREMENTS & TRACKING

**Need, Opportunity or Regulatory Forcing**

**One or More Good Ideas**

**High Benefit/Cost Expectation**

**Supporter Interest & Funding**

***Project Initiation***

***Check Points Along the Way***

***Project Completion ***

## PROSPECTIVE FRAMEWORK ELEMENTS - I

_**Option**_

_**Knowledge**_

_**Economic**_

_**Environmental**_

_**Security**_

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_**TARGETS**_

_**GOALS**_

_***PROSPECTIVE FRAMEWORK ELEMENTS - I***_
_***GOALS /***__*** TARGETS***__*** ***_

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## PROSPECTIVE FRAMEWORK ELEMENTS - II

_**	**__**	**_**  **_**Today**_**      **_**Expected**_**          **_**Needed **_**	****	****	****	****	****    ****	****      **_**for Success**_
**	****	****	****	****	****	**
**Competition**
**Economics**
**Regulation**
**Other Influences**

_***PROSPECTIVE FRAMEWORK ELEMENTS - II***_
_***KNOWNS / ***__***ASSUMPTIONS***_

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**Baseline**

**Scenarios?**

## Concluding Remarks

**  ****Probably involves more homework than in the past.**
**	****-  **_**Know thy competition.**_
**	****-  **_**Describe thy market.**_
**  **_**Researchers should be heavily involved**_** to better understand project challenges & variables.**
**  ****Approach should be **_**simple**_**, **_**intuitive**_**, **_**transparent**_** and **_**common across DOE**_**.**

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