# Presentation: 852754

## Climate Change – 	   What lies ahead!

**Climate Change – ****	****   What lies ahead!**

**	****   ****What does the science tell us?****   What does it mean to Alaska’s National Parks?**

**Notes:**
Is Climate Change a reality?   What lies ahead for the Parks and people of Alaska?  There’s something about climate change in the news almost every day.  There’s also a lot of controversy about what’s causing it, and what to do about it.  There’s confusion about what it’s called – is it “Global Warming”?  How do we as citizens deal with this issue, if our government isn’t clear about what to do? Here is an effort to understand a few pieces of this complex topic, or at least, understand what scientists who study and experience it can tell us about it. The purpose of this presentation is to explore whether there is sufficient evidence to say that climate change is happening, and if so, to define some of its implications and impacts.

Where are you from – (Does anyone here live in a place that doesn’t have weather?)?  What is weather, in contrast to Climate?  What changes are you aware of at home – is your climate changing? How?

## Dr. Robert Bindschadler
Hydrospheric and Biospheric Sciences Laboratory
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

- Hydrospheric and Biospheric Sciences Laboratory
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

- Dr. Robert Corell
- Chair, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (2004)
- Senior Fellow, Atmospheric Policy Program
- American Meteorological Society

## Slide 3

## Slide 4

## Slide 5

## Significance of Hansen’s Science Paper: 

**Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications**
- James Hansen, et al (*Science * 2005)

**Significance of Hansen’s *****Science***** Paper: **
**The Earth is now absorbing 0.85 ****+/- ****0.15 W/m****2**** more energy from the Sun than it is re-emitting back into space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. **
**Major implications:**
***“******An expectation of additional global warming of about 0.6******o******C****** without further change of atmospheric composition.”***

## What are the variables?

**What are the variables?**

**Notes:**
So, what about some of these other variables?  If we had the time and inclination, we could take an in-depth look at many more of them – the Carbon Cycle, Changes to land-cover, Ocean currents and the Water Cycle...

## The role Ocean’s Play...

**The role Ocean’s Play...**

**Oceans contain  97% of Earth’s water, hence they are fundamental in the global hydrological cycle.**
**Oceans experience 86% of evaporation, hence they are central to the energy exchange on planetary scales. **
**Oceans receive 78% of planetary precipitation; for example, a 1% increase in Atlantic precipitation equals the annual Mississippi runoff.**
***The oceans control the timing and magnitude of the changes in global climate system.***

## Slide 9

## Slide 10

## Disintegrating Ice Shelves:A Climatic Tipping Point

**2000 km****2**** of Larsen Ice Shelf disintegrated in 2 days.**

**Antarctic Peninsula temperatures have increased 2.5****o****C in 50 years.**

- Glaciers feeding ice shelves accelerate after ice-shelf removal confirms “ice-shelf buttressing”

## Latent Heat of Fusion

- Ice near the melting point is prone to produce “_tipping points_”

- Add heat at a constant rate

## Thinning Sea Ice Everywhere

## Slide 14

**Notes:**
Here’s data from all around the North Pole, showing a dramatic decline in Glacier volume, comprehensively around the north pole region.  Ice Volume has declined sharply in North America, slightly in the Russian Arctic, and has actually increased in the European Arctic. Cumulatively, the overall ice volume has been in decline for the past 40 years or so.  Less ice in glaciers, means more water in the ocean which may also translate into higher sea level (although isostatic rebound is also allowing the land to rise without the ice weighing down upon it, so even though sea level rises, northern shorelines may remain the same).

## Worldwide Glacier Retreat

- Glaciers in all regions now retreating
- Satellite data increase the quality and quantity of retreat records

**Retreat is accelerating**

## http://www2.nature.nps.gov/geology/glba/glaciers.htm

- _[http://www2.nature.nps.gov/geology/glba/glaciers.htm](http://www2.nature.nps.gov/geology/glba/glaciers.htm)_

**Notes:**
Bruce Molnia, a research geologist with USGS, has been working on studies at several of our Alaskan parks which use historic photography, compared with contemporary photos, to create and evaluate the visual evidence of changes to many glaciers in Alaska.  This web-site for Glacier Bay studies, contains short movies for the locations noted on the map.  Each movie uses an historic photograph, a contemporary photo from the same vantage point, and morphs from one to the other.  The effect is to simulate time lapse photography – literally enabling the viewer to watch the glaciers retreat.

(Play quicktime movies of McBride Glacier retreat, files included.)

## Decreasing Snow Cover

**10% decrease in NH winter snow extent since 1966—primarily in springtime**

**Global snow amount remains unknown (**_**+**_**50%)**

## Slide 18

## Where is the water coming from?

**Ocean**
**Thermal**
**Expansion**

**Glaciers and **
**Ice Caps**

**Ice**
**Sheets**

- ?

- Present rate = 2 mm/year =_3 mm/year_

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## Polar Bears are profoundly impacted by the loss of sea ice.

***Polar Bears are profoundly impacted by the loss of sea ice.***

**Biodiversity impacts in the Arctic Region.**

## Slide 24

## Slide 25

## Permafrost is Melting

## ACIA, 2004

**Notes:**
Loss of permafrost will also have ramifications for engineering throughout the State where it is commonly found, especially in the far north where it is almost continuous.

## Slide 28

## Slide 29

## Dollars and Sense

- The daily loss of land in Louisiana?
- 43 acres _per day_ (33 football fields)

## Dollars and Sense

- The daily loss of land in Louisiana?
- 43 acres _per day_ (33 football fields)
- Cost of 1 meter rise in sea level to US alone?
- Approximately _$400,000,000,000_

## Dollars and Sense

- The daily loss of land in Louisiana?
- 43 acres _per day_ (33 football fields)
- Cost of 1 meter rise in sea level to US alone?
- Approximately _$400,000,000,000_
- Economic impact of an ice-free Arctic Ocean?
- Priceless!!

## Winners and Losers of Ice-Free Arctic Ocean

- Ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer may occur as early as 2050

## Information to the Public

- Documentaries
- March of the Penguins
- Cousteau
- Exhibits
- Hollywood Films
- The Day After Tomorrow

- Few people have been to the polar latitudes

## The Day After Tomorrow

- Hollywood’s view of the future

## The (Correct) Day After Tomorrow

- More heat = less ice

**VOSTOK ICE CORE**

## © MSK Partners 

- © MSK Partners

## “Arranging for Change” means more than just answering questions.  It’s about inspiring the audience with an encouraging call to action.  Is our modern lifestyle sustainable?  Perhaps the national parks, with the help of NASA scientists, can help provide answers and choices for individuals in the future.