# Presentation: 134421

## Liberia Security Sector Reform Workshop	

- August 6-7, 2007
- Overview:  S/CRS Tom Moore

## Liberia SSR workshop:  Goal

- Short term:  To assist Liberia in identifying necessary components of strategy for meeting UN security & ROL benchmarks as UNMIL withdraws
- Long term:  To assist Liberia identifying necessary components of strategy for implementing an effective, legitimate and accountable security infrastructure

## Liberia SSR Assessment

- Assessment carried out in 3 stages:
- Workshop;
- Field Assessment;
- Analysis of Data – Program recommendations

## Stage 1: Workshop activities

- Specifying relevant background/contextual **factors** **and** **interviewees** (individuals, positions, formal/informal groups)
- Identification of **linkages and disconnects** between various roles/functions
- Recognize what we **don’t know**
- Drafting **questions** to elicit needed information

## The two hard questions...

- What is the conflict dynamic in Liberia?
- What security sector actions will help GOL address this?

## Trigger for violence?  Expected UNMIL draw-down

## Conflict dynamic:  effects of weak Liberian Rule of Law

- Systematic violations of due process by GOL
- Vigilante violence against criminal suspects
- War-era human rights abusers continue to enjoy impunity
- Disputes over land and property appropriated during war raise ethnic tensions
*CONTEXT:  estimated 85% unemployment; 200,000+ IDPs; ex-combatants’ expectations; absence of state control over natural resources:  rubber, timber, gold, diamonds; corruption*

## Conflict simmers outside the  capital

- Sierra Leone

- Guinea

- Cote D’Ivoire

|  | Very High Risk- Volatile situation where any or a combination of threat factors will cause a breakdown of peace and security |
| --- | --- |
|  | High Risk- Unstable situation where any or a combination of threat factors have a high potential for breakdown of peace and security. |
|  | Moderate Risk- Unstable situation where any or a combination of threat factors have a high potential for localized breakdown of peace and security. |
|  | Low Risk- Fairly calm situation with a low order of menace. |

***Conflict simmers outside the  capital***

**Notes:**
Absence of state control over Natural Resources  High Threat (CORE)
 XCs moving into vacuum (in most counties) with erstwhile command and control structures. Regulating them Security implications.
 In many places community vs. Illicit exploiters (XCs) divide ≈ Community resentment  insecurity.

Extremely limited reach of state authority and weak operational capacity of Administrative, Security & RoL structures  High Threat (CORE)
 Take time for state security and administrative institutions to become operational and effective in all counties.

Infrastructure (roads and comm.)   Medium Threat (Contextual)
 Rapid communication and rapid response to threats impossible   Insecurity, lawlessness
 Isolation and economic hardship  Public frustration; anomie

Ethnic & Land disputes interconnected; in southeast also linked to discovery of gold  High Threat (contextual)
Potentially disruptive 
South-east counties particularly vulnerable.

External factors  
High Threat (Core)
	Guinea & Côte d’Ivoire 
Unsecured land, Riverine, & Sea bordersVulnerable

## Threat Assessment Matrix

| THREAT | RISK | TREND | KEY CONCERNS |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TERRORISM | L |  |  |
| GOVERNANCE | H |  |  Development in Counties & Support Teams
 Low Capacity, Logistics |
| CRIME  | M | 
 |  Public and media anxiety over crime levels in Monrovia 
 Impact and development of ‘vigilante’ / CPF groups
 LNP not well armed |
| DEMOB PERS | H |  |  Rehabilitation & Reintegration expectations and failure to deliver
 Ex LNP, ex-AFL – perceived/actual owed wages/pensions
 Underemployed, mobile, and quick tempered |
| PUBLIC ORDER | H |  |  Demos – ex-LNP, ex-AFL, & other Outstanding Pay Disputes
 Ethnic Tensions & Land Disputes 
 Confidence in Justice System |
| EMPLOYMENT RELATED | M |  |  Expectations – severance pay, salary levels etc |
| REGIONAL INSTABILITY | H |  |  Guinea- Delicate new government, military riots over money
 Côte d’Ivoire- Uncertainty of progress on peace accord
 Sierra Leone- August elections/ government financial difficulties |
| ECONOMIC DIFICULTIES | M |  |  Unfulfilled High Expectations - Delivery on Infrastructure
 Unemployment |
| 
SSR CAPABILITY | L |  |  AFL Recruitment & Training 
 LNP Restructuring – gaps and resources
 Follow through of RAND Report
 Development of National Security Architecture |
| NATURAL RESOURCES | H |  |  Control of Rubber resources
Diamond, Timber (sanctions lifted in 06 & (07) and Gold
 |

## Conflict dynamic will define USG response:

- What actions can USG take now to support Liberian SSR efforts that will help better ensure continued stability once UNMIL withdraws?