# Presentation: 867773

## Initial Operational Capability (IOC)

- Implementation
- at MSC

***Second North American Ensemble Forecast System Workshop******NCEP***
***November 16-18, 2004***

*Richard Hogue,*
*Operations Branch, *
*Canadian Meteorological Center*

##  16 members

-  10 day forecasts done once a day  (00Z run)
-  perturbed analyses obtained from perturbed assimilation cycles
-  multi-model approach: SEF T150 and GEM 1.2o (~130km)
-  different model options used for both models

- CMC EPS started with 8 members (SEF T95) in quasi-operational mode in March 1996.
- became operational in February 1998.
- 8 new models (GEM) were added in August 1999.
- products available on external Web page available in October 1999.
- increased horizontal resolution to T149 in June 2001.

- Current operational configuration

## 

**perturbed trial fields**

**perturbed observations**

**perturbed analyses**

**doubling of the**
**number of analyses**

**models**

**8 models each producing **
**A data assimilation cycle**

**16 forecast cycles**
** ****8 SEF - T149 or ~150 km**
** ****8 GEM - 1.2° or ~135 km**
** ****10 days at 00 UTC**

**16 members**

## Combination of model perturbations

**SEF**
**(T149)        Add ops ****	**** Convection/Radiation****	**** GWD**	 **GWD**	            **Orography      Number    Time level**
**                    ****analysis****	****	****	****	**** version ****	****	****                 of levels ****	**
**1****	**yes	Kuo/ Garand	Strong	High altitude	0.3 	23	3
**2****	**no	Manabe/ Sasamori	Strong	Low altitude		0.3 	41	3
**3****	**no	Kuo/ Garand	Weak	Low altitude		Mean 	23	3
**4****	**yes	Manabe/ Sasamori	Weak	High altitude	Mean	41	3
**5****	**yes	Manabe/ Sasamori	Strong	Low altitude		Mean	23	2
**6****	**no	Kuo/ Garand	Strong	High altitude	Mean	41	2
**7****	**no	Manabe/ Sasamori	Weak	High altitude	0.3 	23	2
**8****	**yes	Kuo/ Garand	Weak	Low altitude		0.3 	41	2
**control****	**mean	Kuo/ Garand	Mean	Low altitude		0.15 	41	3
**GEM **
**(1.2****0****)         Add ops****	**** Deep****	**** ****	****Shallow****	**** Soil ****	****                 Sponge        Number     Coriolis**
**                  ****analysis****	**** convection ****	**** ****	****convection**	 **moisture** **	****	****                 of levels**	**	**
**9****	**no	Kuosym		new	Less 20%	                  global	28              Implicit
**10****	**yes	RAS		old	Less 20%	                 equatorial	28              Implicit
**11****	**yes	RAS		old	Less 20%	                  global	28              Implicit
**12****	**no	Kuosym		old	More 20%	                  global	28              Implicit
**13****	**no	Kuosym		new	More 20%	                  global	28              Implicit
**14****	**yes	Kuosym		new	Less 20%	                  global	28              Implicit
**15****	**yes	Kuosym		old	Less 20%	                  global	28              Implicit
**16****	**no	OldKuo		new	More 20%	                  global	28              Implicit

## Recent  IOC  milestones at CMC

- Winter 2004: confirm common set of variables-levels (“Appendix 5”)
- April 2004: addition of 3D humidity variable to the list
- August 2004: addition of new variables to the CMC dataset:
- CAPE,
- Tmin,
- Tmax
- quantitative precipitation types

## List of “Appendix 5”  Variables

- GRIB Terminology      CMC      Level(s)
- 3D variables
- HGT                               GZ        200, 250, 500,700, 850 , 925, 1000 (hPa)
- TMP                               TT        200, 250,500,700, 850 , 925, 1000 (hPa)
- UGRD                            UU       200, 250, 500,700, 850 , 925, 1000 (hPa)
- VGRD                            VV       200, 250, 500,700, 850 , 925, 1000 (hPa)
- DEPR                              ES       200, 250, 500, 700, 850, 925, 1000 (hPa)
- TCDC                             NT       SFC (0)
- PWAT                             IH       SFC (0)
- Surface variables
- UGRD                           UU       10m (12000)
- VGRD                           VV       10m (12000)
- TMP                               TT         2m (12000)
- TMIN                              T7        2m (12000)
- TMAX                             T8        2m (12000)
- DEPR                              ES        2m (12000)
- HGT                                GZ       Eta=1 (12000)
- CAPE                              BE       SFC (12000)
- PRES                              P0        SFC (0)
- PRMSL                          PN        MSL (0)
- APCP                              PR       SFC (0)  Cummulative Total Precipitation
- Precip Types                 Cummulative precipitation amounts for RN,SN,FR,PE
- Wave Model                  Not yet available

## Recent  IOC  milestones at CMC

- Winter 2004: confirm common set of variables-levels (“Appendix 5”)
- April 2004: addition of 3D humidity variable to the list
- August 2004: addition of new variables to the CMC dataset:
- CAPE,
- Tmin,
- Tmax
- _quantitative_ precipitation types (rain, snow, freezing rain and ice pellets)
- September 2004:
- CMC GRIB dataset is complete as per Appendix 5 variables (except wave model)
- final testing and validation of CMC grib encoding with NCEP (before the “freeze”)
- October 2004
- Start of full Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) parallel run
- Improvements to ensemble production runs: products available more than one hour earlier:
- Before: around 07Z ......  Now: around 5:45Z
- Summer-fall 2004 :  pull of NCEP ensemble dataset in development mode

## CMC  EPS GRIB files for NCEP

- Ensemble :  1 control, 8  SEF, 8 GEM
- GRID       :  1.2 x 1.2 (300 X 151 lat-lon)
- DOMAIN:  GLOBAL
- FORMAT:  WMO Grib 1
- Cycles      :  Presently 00Z cycle
- HOURS   : 000 to 240 hrs at 12 hour intervals
- Files        :  17 members x 11 files =  187 files
- Total size:  Approximately 1.2 Gb
- Location : ftp.cmc.ec.gc.ca/pub/cmc/ncep

- File content:  all variables / all levels / 2 timesteps / file
-            (*similar to NCEP’s “standard pressure format”)*
*	**	**	**	*efficient data packaging for post-processing...

## Telecom issues

-  NCEP pulls CMC ensemble data via internet on CMC’s FTP site:	very good access times (of the order of 30 minutes for 1.2 Gb)
-  CMC pulls NCEP ensemble data via internet on NWS’s FTP site:	irregular and long access times: server load problems at NWS		(of the order of 4 to 6 hours for 1.8 Gb)
- 			Technical solutions are being investigated

**Longer term:**
-  Use of internet could be acceptable for IOC but .....		 reliability and timeliness will need to be high in full operational mode...
-  Increase in data volumes will require a more stable access to bandwidth
-  Need to consider dedicated telecom link or upgrade to current GTS link (T1)

## Summary

-  Excellent progress on the various aspects of data exchange and coordination
-  Temporary data access problems when pulling NCEP files:  currently being investigated
-  Longer term issues with telecommunication to ensure a high level of timeliness and reliability
-  Consider transition towards common file packaging format for optimum post-processing
-  Plan for transition to GRIB2 (early 2006 ?)
-  Additions and improvements over the coming months :
-  Implementation of EnKF (January 2005)
-  Implement 12Z run of 16 members (February 2005)
-  Extension of forecast period to 15 days (May 2005)

## Slide 11

## Additional slides follow ...
could be helpfull to answer questions....

- could be helpfull to answer questions....

## +

**T149 or ~150 km**

**10 days**
**16 members**

**observations**

**random numbers**

**perturbed observations**

**data assimilation**

**perturbed analyses *****a******i*****, *****i=1,8***

**6-h integration**
**with models *****i, i=1,8***

**perturbed **
**trial fields**

**medium-range integration**
**with models *****i (SEF), i=1,8***

**medium-range**
**forecast**

**surface fields:**
**(Z****0****, SST, AL)**

**random numbers**

**and**

**perturbed **
**surface fields:**
**(Z0, SST, AL)**

**medium-range integration**
**with models***** j (GEM), j=1,8***

**and**

**Canadian EPS set-up**

**doubling of analyses, *****i=1,8***

**each model *****i, i=1,8***** **
**and *****j*****, *****j=1,8*****  has its**
**own physics **
**parameterization**

**+**

***a******i ******, a******’******i***
***i=1,4***

***a******i ******, a******’******i***
***i=5,8***

_***data assimilation cycle***_

_***forecast cycle***_

## Doubling the OI-analysis ensemble size

- Doubling the OI-analysis ensemble size

## CMC Cape calculation

- Cape is calculated in post-production mode
- Cape is calculated only for gridpoints which have lifted index < +3
- Gridpoints with values of -1 indicated no CAPE value has been calculated for that gridpoint
- Some 0h members (001,004, 005, 008, 010, 011, 014 et 015) may not be at equilibrium at initialization and as so their CAPE values may be unrealiable
- A new approach in intialization will correct this shortly

## CMC Tmin/Tmax calculation

- Tmin & Tmax calculated in post-processing mode
- Max/Min surface temperatures are presently calculated over a 12 hour period

## CMC Precipitation Type Information

- CMC dataset offers quantitative precipitation amounts for 4 types of precipitation: rain, snow, freezing rain and ice pellets
- Our algorithm used is the Bourgouin method:
- Weather and Forecasting (Bourgouin, Pierre. 2000: A Method to Determine Precipitation Types. Weather and Forecasting: Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 583-592. or _[http://ams.allenpress.com/amsonline/?request=get-document&issn=1520-0434&volume=015&issue=05&page=0583](http://ams.allenpress.com/amsonline/?request=get-document&issn=1520-0434&volume=015&issue=05&page=0583)_)
- For each 12-hour period, each member of the Canadian EPS forecasts precipitation amounts expected to fall as rain, snow, freezing rain and ice pellets separately (i.e. four fields).
- We could also further include dominant type of precipitation per time interval but this would have to be further discussed and agreed upon
- NCEP only provides categorical occurrence (0-1) of each precip type.

##   Low resolution regional (60km) and global (2deg.) 					model outputs : free access

*Follows MSC's data access policy to give free access to generic model datasets in a convenient fashion*

- http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/grib/index_e.html

-   Low resolution regional (60km) and global (2deg.) 					model outputs : free access
-   High resolution model outputs (24km and 1deg.):				  password protected (registration required)

-  fall 2004:  increase resolution from 24km to 15km for regional outputs
-  January 2005: addition of ensemble forecasts in GRIB	     addition of wave model outputs in GRIB	     addition of other types of data ....