# Presentation: 727387

## THORPEX:The Observing-System, Research, and Predictability Experiment

- Tom Hamill
- _[tom.hamill@noaa.gov](mailto:tom.hamill@noaa.gov)_
- NOAA Earth System Research Lab

- NOAA Earth System
- Research Laboratory

## THORPEX overview

- THORPEX is an international research program coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high -impact weather forecasts.
- THORPEX research sub-programs address:
- i) global-to-regional influences on the evolution and predictability of weather systems;
- ii) global observing-system design and demonstration;
- iii) targeting and assimilation of observations;
- iv) societal, economic, and environmental benefits of improved forecasts.
- THORPEX establishes an organizational framework that addresses weather research and forecast problems whose solutions will be accelerated through international collaboration among academic institutions, operational forecast centers and users of forecast products.

## THORPEX core objectives

- Increase knowledge of global-to-regional influences on the initiation, evolution and predictability of high-impact weather.
- Contribute to the design and demonstration of *interactive forecast systems* that allow information to flow interactively among forecast users, numerical forecast models, data- assimilation systems and observations to maximize forecast skill.
- Contribute to the development of advanced data assimilation and ensemble prediction systems.
- Develop and apply new methods that enhance the utility and value of weather forecasts to society, economies and environmental stewardship.
- Carry out THORPEX Observing-System Tests (TOSTs) and THORPEX Regional field Campaigns (TReCs).
- Demonstrate all aspects of THORPEX interactive forecast systems, over the globe for a season to one year to assess the utility of improved weather forecasts and user products.
- Coordinate THORPEX research with the World Climate Research Program/ Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (WCRP/COPES) and the mesoscale / microscale community.
- Facilitate the transfer of the results of THORPEX weather prediction research and its operational applications to developing countries.

## More from THORPEX Int’l Sci. Plan, Predictability & Dynamical Processes Subgroup

- Assess predictive skill at all forecast ranges, including potential predictability
- Quantify the contributions of initial condition and model uncertainty to forecast errors
- Investigate the relative effects of small and large-scale initial-condition uncertainty
- Develop improved global ensemble-prediction systems
- Utilize global ensemble prediction systems to specify boundary conditions for high-resolution regional ensemble forecasts**  **

## More from THORPEX Int’l Sci. Plan, Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies

- Improve background-error covariances in existing assimilation schemes
- Develop methods for cycling flow-dependent background errors
- Develop adaptive quality control
- Incorporate model uncertainty into data assimilation procedures
- Targeting strategies (de-emphasized as of 2008).
- Improved use of observations.
- Quantification of observation errors (with OS group)**    **

## More from THORPEX Int’l Sci. Plan, Observing Systems

- Explore potential for new observing systems that improve skill of high-impact forecasts.
- innovative technologies
- airborne prototypes of next-generation spaced based remote-sensing systems
- advanced data processing methods (thinning, super-obbing)
- Collaboration with data assimilation on OSSEs, OSEs, characterizing observation error (with DAOS).

## More from THORPEX Int’l Sci. Plan, Societal and Economic Applications Research

- Identify high-impact weather forecasts
- Assess the impact of improved forecast systems
- Develop advanced forecast verification measures
- Develop new user-specific weather products** **

## THORPEXorganizationprior to Sep 2008

## THORPEXorganizationafter Sep 2008

- DAOS & Observing
- Systems combined
- (2) Societal and Economic
- Research and Applications
- moved out of direct THORPEX
- control and under WWRP/WCRP

## North American THORPEX, circa October 2008

- Jim Hansen (NRL) and Lance Bosart (U Albany) lead US THORPEX Science Steering Team.
- Zoltan Toth expected to lead US THORPEX Executive Committee.
- Tom Hamill to be program manager for NOAA THORPEX.
- North American THORPEX heavily involved in upcoming field experiment “T-PARC” discussed later.

## NOAA THORPEX projects, 2008

- ESRL:
- Gary Wick, satellite derived IWV & wind vector data
- Bao: stochastic convective parameterization in GFS
- Whitaker/Hamill: ensemble data assimilation
- Schultz (GSD): post-processing using Bayesian processing of forecasts.

## NOAA THORPEX projects, 2008

- EMC
- Bo Cui: statistical post-processing
- Dingchen Hou:
- Model-related uncertainties
- High-impact modeling (streamflow, wave, etc.)
- Yucheng Song: Winter T-PARC
- Mozheng Wei: data assimilation/ensemble initialization.

## NOAA THORPEX other budget items, FY08

- JCSDA: 50K to link GSI & ensemble-based research activities
- TIGGE: 50K
- Management: 150K to WMO’s IPO
- Zoltan’s travel support: 25K
- T-PARC 120K

## TIGGE archive centers and data providers

- *THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble

## TIGGE fields

- Pressure level fields comprise geopotential, temperature, specific humidity and wind components at 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 300, 250, and 200 hPa. Additional fields at the tropopause level are potential vorticity on the 320K potential temperature surface, and potential temperature and wind on the 2PVU potential vorticity level.

## TIGGE at NCAR

## T-PARC :THORPEX Pacific-Asian Regional Campaign

## T-PARC details

- Multi-national field campaign planned by the Asian and North American Regional Committees that address:
- the shorter-range dynamics and forecast skill of one region (Eastern Asian and the western North Pacific)
- its impact on the medium-range dynamics and forecast skill of downstream regions (eastern North Pacific, North America and perhaps stretching to Europe).
- Primary objectives of each region are the same (i.e., to increase understanding of the mechanisms that will lead to improved predictive skill of high-impact weather events)
- T-PARC will take between May and December 2008 with a concentrated US measurement campaign during August and September.
- NOAA has some participation in winter phase (~$120K/yr), but largest source of US funding is through NSF and Navy.

## T-PARC details

**Tropical Cyclogenesis**
- Western Pacific, Aug-Sep 2008
- Funding primarily via Navy/ONR, NSF, Asian nations
**Extratropical Transition**
- Western Pacific, Aug-Sep 2008
- Funding primarily via NSF, NCAR, Asian nations, French driftsonde group, US scientists, DLR?
**Winter Phase**
- North Pacific, Jan-Feb 2009
- NOAA leads, Met Service Canada, NMSM, US scientists (NRL, NASA, no NSF funding)

## Issues

- THORPEX has the infrastructure set up for a $100M/year program, but total worldwide funding is more like $10-20 M/year (primarily to field campaigns), and NOAA is ~$1M/year.
- Significant overlap with existing R&D at operational centers and labs, so some lack of unique identity.
- Plans generated/vetted internationally, but funding comes from federal agencies with different agendas. Can be difficult to achieve overlap of international scientific and agency priorities.
- Unique idea of THORPEX not so much what research is done, but how it is done (via international cooperation)
- share knowledge,
- share observational / forecast / field experiment data.