# Presentation: 057598

## Short-Term Energy Forecasting

- A Presentation to the Bangladesh Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
- September 20 - 23, 1999
- Tancred C. Lidderdale
- Energy Information Administration
- U.S. Department of Energy

## Energy Demand Overview

## Economic Growth and Energy Demand Growth, 1988 - 1997

**Petroleum (0.8%)**

**Natural Gas (2.2%)**

**Electricity (2.8%)**

**Electricity (7.4%)**

**Natural Gas (6.7%)**

**Petroleum (4.5%)**

- United States

- Bangladesh

- 4.5% / year

- 2.4% / year

## Bangladesh Per Capita Energy Demand Indices

**Petroleum**

**Electricity**

**Natural Gas**

## Bangladesh Energy Demand Trends

-  High growth rate in electricity demand across all sectors of the economy
-  High growth in natural gas demand across all sectors.  Almost 1/2 of growth in natural gas demand in electric utilities.
-  Growth in petroleum demand only in transportation sector.

## Petroleum Demand

## Bangladesh Petroleum Demand per Capita

**Source: Energy Information Administration**

**Notes:**
U.S. per capita natural gas demand = 76,000 cu feet per year

## Bangladesh Petroleum DemandDriven by Transportation Sector

**Transportation**

**Industrial + Commercial**

**Residential**

**Other**

**Electric Utilities**

**Source: Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh**

## Bangladesh Petroleum Demand by Product

**Source: Energy Information Administration**

**Distillate Fuel Oil**

**Other**

**Kerosene**

**Motor Gasoline**

## Petroleum Demand Shares

**Bangladesh 1996**

**United States 1998**

**Source: Energy Information Administration**

## Demand for Transportation Fuels

**Function of:**
-  Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
-  Motorization - Number of Vehicles
-  Miles Traveled per Vehicle

## U.S. Automobile Technology:Fuel Efficiency and Horsepower

**Source:** Ward’s Automotive

**Average Fuel Efficiency**

**Average Vehicle Horsepower**

## Motorization and Income 

- Motorization is highly correlated with income.  Differences in land use can lead to different levels, but not different paths, of motorization.
- Severe constraint, as in Singapore and Hong Kong, is the only way to limit motorization.

**Source:** World Bank

## U.S. Motorization , Resident Population, and Licensed Drivers

**Source:** U.S. Federal Highway Administration, *Highway Statistics* (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov)

**Licensed Drivers**

**Motor Vehicles**
**Registered**

**Total Population**
**16 years old and over**

## A Simple Bangladesh Transportation Demand Model

- Variables:
**Demand** = total annual average petroleum demand (thousand barrels per day)
**GDP** = real GDP (billion Taka, 1985 basis)
**Price** = real oil price (US $/bbl)

## Bangladesh Petroleum DemandRegression Model 1

- Demand = 3.675 + 0.0804  GDP
- 				    - 0.412  Price
- 		N = 12
- 		R2 = 0.929

## Bangladesh Petroleum DemandRegression 1 (GDP, Price)

**Forecast**

**Predicted**

**Actual**

**Demand = 3.675 + 0.0804 ******** GDP - 0.412 ******** Price **

## Bangladesh Petroleum DemandRegression 1 Residuals

## Bangladesh Petroleum DemandRegression Model 2

- Demand = 12.22 + 0.013  GDP
- 				    - 0.747  Price
- 				    + 0.806  Demand(t-1)
- 		N = 12
- 		R2 = 0.973

## Bangladesh Petroleum DemandRegression 2 (GDP, Price, Demandt-1)

**Forecast**

**Predicted**

**Actual**

**Predicted Demand = 3.675 + 0.0804*GDP - 0.747*Price**
**                                  ****+ 0.806*Demand(t-1) **

## Bangladesh Petroleum DemandComparison Regression 1 & 2 Residuals

**Regression 1**

**Regression 2**