# Presentation: 805451

## Sally Obenski and Jim Farber
U.S. Census Bureau 
CNSTAT Panel 
January 26, 2007

**U.S. Census Bureau **
**CNSTAT Panel **
**January 26, 2007**

**Expanding the Use of Administrative Records:  Methods, Applications, and Challenges **

## Overview

- Overview and History
- Key technical breakthroughs
- Decennial and Survey Applications
- Medicaid Undercount Study
- Value of Integrated Data Sets
- Operational and Technical Constraints
- Policy Challenges
- Conclusions

## Mandate for Administrative Records Use 

- Title 13, Section 6:
- Use administrative records information as extensively as possible in lieu of conducting direct inquires
- Census Bureau Strategic Plan:
- Reduce reporting burden and minimize cost to taxpayer by acquiring and developing high-quality data from sources maintained by other government and commercial entities

## Legal Guidance and Protections

**  **Title 13, U.S.C., Section 6, 9, and 214
-   Title 26, U.S.C., Section 6103(j)
-   Privacy Act of 1974
-   Paperwork Reduction Act
-     Government Information Security Reform Act  (GISRA)
- E-Government Act of 2002, including
- Federal Information Security Management Act (FISMA)

## Safeguarding Administrative Records 

**Consistent Application of Policies**
- To ensure that projects have the appropriate legal authorization, comply with existing data agreements, and provide adequate controls to protect confidentiality and privacy
**Administrative Controls**
- Numerous levels of approval
- Need-to-know access
- Removal of identifiable information
- Administrative Records Tracking System
- Security and confidentiality training

## AR Program Evolution 

**Today**

**Program begins**

**mid 1990s**

**July 1993**

**1996**

**AR Research staff created**

**Survey launched to gather info on potential AR files**

**Early 1990s**

**Statistical uses of AR conference held**

**July 1993**

**1999/2000**

**Projects included AREX 2000 and the 1999 StARS prototype**

**1999**

**Centralized  program emerges**

**Data Stewardship program begins**

**2001**

**AR Test for 2000 Census**

**Race Model Addresses Quality Concerns**

**PVS Increases Linking Capacity**

**Infrastructure investments allow new interagency collaborations**

**2004**

**2002**

**2005**

## StARS Provides Technical Infrastructure 

- Person & Address Databases consist of 7 national files:
- 		IRS 1040    HUD TRACS   IHS           SSS
- 		IRS 1099    HUD PIC	Medicare

| CY2004 records | Persons | Addresses |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Raw input | 894 million | 767 million |
| StARS | 308 million
 | 152 million
 |

## Administrative Records Experiment Validated StARS

- Local test of AR census models conducted in 5 counties
- Coverage issues similar to Census 2000
- Validated conformance of StARS to Census 2000 addresses & persons
- Improvements to StARS continue, including move to more real-time redesign (E-StARS)

## NUMIDENT Provides National Reference File

- Social Security Administration (SSA) Numerical Identification (Numident) Transaction file with 803 million records
- Collapse to 431 million unique SSN records
- Usages:
- Look-up file that provides demographic data
- Social Security Numbers (SSNs) verification/ validation

## Race and Hispanic Origin Model Rectified Quality Concerns

- Initial weakness was dependence on race data from SSA’s SSN transaction file
- Census 2000 records matched to SSN transaction file
- Model completed missing linkages

## Person Validation System (PVS) Increases Linking Capacity

- Use master file of SSN/name/DOB as reference file
- Link addresses with SSN reference file
- Match incoming census or survey record using name, address, DOB
- Search within address first (high quality match)
- Search by name/DOB nationally if address search not successful
- Replaces SSN with unique identifier (PIK)

## Person Validation System (PVS) Increases Linking Capacity

- Prepare Numident
- Prepare Incoming Data
- Run Verification Phase
- Run Geokey Search
- Run Name Search
- Apply PIKs

**Verification**

**Geokey **
**Search**

**Name**
**Search**

**Final**

## Implementing the ACS Provides Current Long Form Data  

- Designed to ameliorate constraints of decennial long form data collection
- Provides means for timely analyses and estimates at small geographic areas
- Provides means to push models based on less granular surveys to smaller geographies

## AR Integral to Census Bureau Programs 

- Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 1040
- Intercensal Estimates
- Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates
- CMS Medicare and Medicaid
- National Longitudinal Mortality Study
- Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates
- Small Area Health Insurance Estimates
- State Unemployment Insurance Files
- Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics

## Current Decennial Census Research

- Using AR to “assign” age, race, sex, Hispanic Origin, when a record can be matched
- Use AR to identify households with coverage problems
- Determine if commercially available & other lists can improve & help build GQ frame

## Emerging Survey Improvement (1)

- Reducing ACS small area variance
- Use AR as controls to adjust survey weights right after nonresponse adjustment
- Preliminary research highly promising
- Obtaining characteristics on nonrespondents
- Compared StARS persons to CPS responders to ensure consistency
- Used StARS to obtain characteristics of nonresponding households

## Emerging Survey Improvement (2)

- Reacting to disaster and other near-real time  requirements
- Katrina’s effect on the federal statistical system and our lack of current response data highlighted need
- Acquired the USPS National Change of Address File and FEMA’s emergency management and flood insurance files
- Developing next generation StARS – near real-time measurements

## Medicaid Undercount Study (1)

- Survey estimates are important to policy research
- Examining the large discrepancy between survey estimates and Medicaid enrollment figures
- Multi-phased, interagency study, including academia

## Medicaid Undercount Study (2) 

- Phase I:  Examines quality and characteristics of Medicaid and Medicare files (2000-2002)
- Phase II:  Conducts national match of Medicaid files to Current Population Survey ASEC (2001-2002)
- Phase III:  Conducts selected state matches of Medicaid files to states in CPS ASEC
- Phase IV:  Conducts national match of Medicaid files to the National Health Interview Survey and compares results

## Value of Integrated Data Sets

- Provides more robust and accurate picture
- Builds on strengths of both views while controlling for their weaknesses
- Provides better statistics for input into simulations for predictions and funds distribution
- As the demand for data increases and budgets decrease data re-use many be the only cost-effective option

## Operational Constraints

- File Acquisition Complexities
- Complex Memoranda of Understanding
- State by state negotiation
- Differences in content definition, quality, and program rules over time
- File lag time
- MSIS (Federal Medicaid) lags by about 4 years
- Most lag for about a year
- Many applications require more near real-time response

## Illustrative Examples

- Federal Files—yearly acquisitions
- IRS 1040, IRS 1099, CMS Medicare, Medicaid
- Federal Files—quarterly or monthly updates
- SSA Numident, USPS NCOA
- State Files—on as needed basis
- MD Food Stamps, MD TANF, MD Child Care Subsidy
- State Files—on a quarterly basis
- UI Wage and ES 202 (currently from 40 states)
- Commercial Files—INFOUSA

## Technical Constraints 

- Obtaining the right data in the right format
- Varying rates of validation (e.g., Medicare 99%, Medicaid 91%)
- Coarseness of administrative data compared to nuances of surveys
- Measuring error

## Policy Challenges

- Communicating the benefits vs. privacy concerns
- Need for interagency teams to ensure accurate results
- Interagency agreements and mission
- “Ownership” of the integrated data sets
- Growth of possible disclosure risks
- Need for longitudinal data bases in order to find an anonomyzed person at an address at a point in time

## Overcoming the Constraints

- Resolving file acquisition issues may require OMB or Congressional assistance
- Lag time for general demographics addressed by National Change of Address file—planning move to Enhanced StARS for more near real-time response
- Standardized and centralized file acquisition
- New files in address search phase and SAS-based matcher increased validation rates
- Data Quality Standards team addressing measuring error in integrated data sets
- Increasing inter-agency efforts for generating integrated data sets

## Conclusions

-  New files and innovations leading to expansion of AR uses
- New  challenges continue to arise
- Regular updating of billions of records to have a near real-time response system
- Effectively acquiring state-based records
- Understanding integrated data sets
- At incipience of a new generation of products, services, and inter-agency opportunities

## Contact Information

- Sally M. Obenski
- Assistant Division Chief for Administrative Records Applications
- Data Integration Division
- U.S. Census Bureau
- Washington D.C. 20233-8100
- Email: _[Sally.M.Obenski@Census.Gov](mailto:Sally.M.Obenski@Census.gov)_
- Phone: (301) 763-4044
- Cell:     (301) 873-7615