# Presentation: 302159

## Days 1-3

- GFS does well for light
- Precip, not so well for
- Heavy precip events

- GFS little bias except
- For very heavy events

**Days 1-3**

- GFS little bias except
- For very heavy events

**June 2008**

## Last month

***Last month***

## Last year

***Last year***

## GFS precip does well for light amounts, not so well for heavy amounts in June

GFS precip unbiased for light amounts, positive bias for heavier amounts

Over last year GFS significantly worse than ECMWF in both hemispheres and Met Office in Southern Hemisphere, significantly better than CMC, FNMOC in both hemispheres

- GFS precip unbiased for light amounts, positive bias for heavier amounts
- Over last year GFS significantly worse than ECMWF in both hemispheres and Met Office in Southern Hemisphere, significantly better than CMC, FNMOC in both hemispheres

## PRS48HO

***PRS48HO***
- GSI/GDAS changes
- update global_gsi source code (code optimizations)
- new data: assimilate WindSat surface winds
- include profile ozone quality flag 7 SBUV/2
- ozone observations
- (improves SH coverage)reintroduce AQUA AMSUA channels 6 and 8-13
- remove global_chgres of surface guess files.
- The new global_gsi directly reads /
- processes quadratic grid surface guess files.
- Minor implementation

## Q1FY09 data upgrade:  (changes from 6/19 email)PRD09Q1GSI/GDAS changes 

- All changes from Q4FY08 data upgrade package plus the following
- Upgrade to CRTM release 1.1, revision 1855
- Turn on GSI options:  VARQC, variance re-weighting, FOTO
- larger skin temperature background error standard deviation over snow/ice and land
- Fix filesRe-tuned observation error table (enter prepbufr file via PREP step)Large sample (400+ pairs) background error file
- Turn off subset of AIRS water vapor channels New data
**assimilate GPS integrated precipitable water (GPSIPW)**
- assimilate IASI brightness temperaturesmonitor ASCAT surface winds
- PREP step changes
- Dennis Keyser's prepbufr upgrade - not tied to Q1FY09 data upgrade.
- Needed, though, to get ASCAT data into prepbufr file.
_**PRD09Q1b**_**FOTO out**, **GPSIPW out **
**New global_vegtype.1x1.grb **
**Fix Alaska glacier ice points in 2008040100 sfcanl file**

## PRD09Q1b is underway. 

***in a series of off-line parallels covering March - May 2008.   ***
***Evaluation of these indicated slightly better performance ***
***with FOTO turned off.   ***

***Concern about high CONUS precipitation bias in the 12-36 hour forecast***
***prompted withdrawal of GPSIPW assimilation***.
***PRD09Q1b is underway.***

***The original Q1FY09 parallel assimilates GPS-IPW data.  ******This data is over CONUS.  While assimilation of this data seems to have a positive impact during the NH winter, ***
***the nature of this impact changes ***
***as we transition into the NH summer.  ***

- --Russ Treadon

## Dropouts not as bad with parallels

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## Large-scale

- Convective

- Precipitable water

## Due to removal of

***Due to removal of***
***Chgres of surface files??***
***(2.5 deg files plotted)***

## ?

***?***

***Need to validate snow cover in***
***Northwest U.S........***

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## PRS48ho

***Fits to obs***

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## Prd09q1

***Fits to obs***

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## Fit of analysis to rawinsondes not as close as operational, 

- except for moisture which is closer to rawinsondes
- Tropospheric forecasts fit to obs similar to or slightly better
- than operational
- Stratospheric forecasts fits to rawinsondes may be
- Not as close as operational
- Prd09q1 doesn’t fit aircraft data as closely as operational
- Prd09q1 analysis don’t fit ACARS data as closely as operational,
- But forecasts closer to ACAR than operational.

## PRSF08 earlier version of Q1FY09

***PRSF08B VARQC off***
***PRSNF08 FOTO off***

## VARQC off

***VARQC off***

***FOTO off***

## FOTO off

**FOTO off**