# Presentation: 215673

## ASA Committee on Energy Statistics 

**Guy Caruso**
**Administrator**
**Energy Information Administration**
**April 22, 2004**

## Since the Last Meeting

**Gasoline/Crude Prices have risen**
**Natural Gas prices have risen**
**EIA has submitted its budget request**
**Produced several Service Reports at the request of Congress **
**All of these have impacted the work of EIA**

## Impact on EIA of High Gasoline Prices 

**Increased interest in our data from:**
**Unhappy consumers complaining about high prices**
**Politicians looking for answers/relief for their constituents**
**Media ****	**
**Therefore, increased interest in the quality of our data**
**EIA redesigned sample to improve quality and geographical (State/city)  coverage of weekly gasoline price data**
**Important that EIA continue operating the expanded sample for the weekly gasoline program (always an issue at budget time)**

## Slide 4

## Natural Gas Markets Rely Heavily on EIA Weekly Data

**Note the impact immediately following the release of EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.**
**Source: NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Near-Month Futures Contract**
**December 17 (Wed.) & 18 (Thur.), 2003 – Bloomberg news data.**

- WPSR -Wed 10:30 am

- WNGSR – Thurs
- 10:30 am

## Natural Gas Prices Increased in Recent Years

**Sources: **
**EIA, Reuters**

**Notes:**
Natural gas inventories at the end of March were about 10 percent below the 5-year average level, but are much higher than last year.
Natural gas spot prices are likely to remain close to $5.40 per thousand cubic feet this year
The projection for 2005 is about the same.
This outcome depends on modest growth in domestic production (about 1 percent per year) in 2004 and 2005.

## Impact on EIA of Natural Gas Issues 

**EIA plans to initiate a new natural gas production survey**
**EIA will monitor impact of changes in demand by sector**
**In our surveys**
**In our regional model**

## EIA’s FY 2005 Budget 

**EIA is requesting $85,000,000 for FY 2005.**
**$3.9 million over 2004**
**5% increase**
**EIA plans to use these funds to:**
**Implement a natural gas production survey to improve data quality and timeliness**
**Update the voluntary reporting of greenhouse gases survey and database **
**Improve the transportation component of the national energy modeling system. **
**Continue to update surveys to reflect restructured industries, demographic changes and new fuel standards**

**Notes:**
Ask to do more than funding allows
Work harder to get funding we need
Make better cases for importance of EIA data
Need for resources

Show how EIA information improve public understanding, policy making, and impacts markets

Washington Post – Oil Price data
Implement a Natural Gas Production Survey 
Continue the weekly collection of Natural Gas Storage data.
Provide more regional information in the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook
Update the Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases survey.
Improve the transportation component of the National Energy Modeling System.
Maintain and improve data quality in current surveys.
Continue to update surveys.  
Continue the redesign of the natural gas and electricity surveys.

## Service and Analysis Reports 

**Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - (03/16 /04) **
**Analysis of Restricted Natural Gas Supply Cases - (03/01/04) **
**Summary Impacts of Modeled Provisions of the 2003 Conference Energy Bill - (02/19/04) **
**Analysis of Five Selected Tax Provisions of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003 - (02/13/04) **
**The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook - (12/16/03)**
**“****Analysis of S. 1844, the Clear Skies Act of 2003, S. 843, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003, and S. 366, the Clean Power Act of 2003”-- for Senator Inhofe**
**“****The Impact of a Weaker Dollar on Crude Oil Markets”****   ****-- for Congressman John Dingell**

## EIA Seeks ASA Committee Advice   

**Frames**
**Sampling for natural gas production survey**
**Statistical and economic issues on regional modeling**
**Cognitive methods in establishment surveys**
**Web Design**

## High motor gasoline and natural gas prices impact interest in EIA and its products

Possible Improvement in Budget for EIA

Interest in Data Quality reflected in our Strategic Plan

**Possible Improvement in Budget for EIA**
**Interest in Data Quality reflected in our Strategic Plan**