# Presentation: 426865

## USACE Adaptations to Climate Change

***USACE Adaptations to Climate Change***

- 27 May 2008

## 2007 USACE

** ****Climate Change Strategies **

**“****The water resources public works being planned today must be robust and resilient to future extreme events and designed with an added degree of uncertainty in their re-occurrence frequency and/or magnitude due to global warming. The inventory of infrastructure that we manage today must likewise be maintained and, perhaps, upgraded to provide an extra degree of safety, resiliency and reliability to address these uncertainties.” **

## Current USACE Guidance on Sea Level Rise

**Potential relative sea level change should be considered in every coastal and estuarine feasibility study that the Corps undertakes.**
**A sensitivity analysis should be conducted to determine what effect changes in sea level would have on plan evaluation and selection.**
**The analysis should be based, as a minimum, on the extrapolation of the local, historical record of relative sea level rise as the low level and Curve 3 from the NRC report as the high level. **

**Notes:**
  Potential relative sea level change should be considered in every coastal and estuarine (as far inland as the new head of tide) feasibility study that the Corps undertakes.
A sensitivity analysis should be conducted to determine what effect (if any) changes in sea level would have on plan evaluation and selection.
The analysis should be based, as a minimum, on the extrapolation of the local, historical record of relative sea level rise as the low level and Curve 3 from the NRC report as the high level. 
Potential relative sea level change should be considered in every coastal and estuarine (as far inland as the new head of tide) feasibility study that the Corps undertakes.
A sensitivity analysis should be conducted to determine what effect (if any) changes in sea level would have on plan evaluation and selection.
The analysis should be based, as a minimum, on the extrapolation of the local, historical record of relative sea level rise as the low level and Curve 3 from the NRC report as the high level. 

## Current USACE Guidance on Sea Level Rise (Cont.)

**If the plan selection is sensitive to sea level rise, then design considerations could allow for future modification when the impacts of future sea level rise can be confirmed [adaptive management].**
**Feasibility studies should consider which designs are most appropriate for a range of possible future rates of rise. **
**Designs that would be appropriate for the entire range of uncertainty should receive preference over those that would be optimal for a particular rate of rise but unsuccessful for other possible outcomes.**

**Notes:**
  Potential relative sea level change should be considered in every coastal and estuarine (as far inland as the new head of tide) feasibility study that the Corps undertakes.
A sensitivity analysis should be conducted to determine what effect (if any) changes in sea level would have on plan evaluation and selection.
The analysis should be based, as a minimum, on the extrapolation of the local, historical record of relative sea level rise as the low level and Curve 3 from the NRC report as the high level. 
Potential relative sea level change should be considered in every coastal and estuarine (as far inland as the new head of tide) feasibility study that the Corps undertakes.
A sensitivity analysis should be conducted to determine what effect (if any) changes in sea level would have on plan evaluation and selection.
The analysis should be based, as a minimum, on the extrapolation of the local, historical record of relative sea level rise as the low level and Curve 3 from the NRC report as the high level. 

## Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP)

**1. Consider design tailwater conditions (water surface elevations immediately downstream) at coastal structures and possible higher interior stages**
**2. Consider the most-probable sea level rise scenario in the performance of their project as a consideration in choosing the selected alternative plan**
**3. Consider which designs and operations are most appropriate for the most-probable sea level rise scenario**
**4. When applicable, address whether the alternatives selected for restoration of more natural patterns of water delivery to the estuaries would achieve project objectives (such as improved/better salinity gradients).**

***Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP)***

## Mississippi Coastal Improvement Program (MsCIP)

**	****Mississippi Coast Relative Sea Level Rise Rates**
**Predicted possible future rise**
**	****Combine observed rates with eustatic rise predictions**
**Conducted Flood Damage Analysis on**
**	****Present Sea Level**
**	****‘****Expected’ Sea Level Rise**
**	****‘****High’ Level Rise**

***Mississippi Coastal ******Improvement Program ******(MsCIP)***

## Mississippi Coastal Improvement Program (MsCIP)

***Mississippi Coastal ******Improvement Program ******(MsCIP)***

## USACE Future Direction

** ****Objectives**
** ****Develop consistent approaches to climate change throughout Corps and in partnership with other Federal agencies with regard to models and assumptions that are used to evaluate climate change impact analysis **
** ****Provide recommendations for Corps policy and guidance to prepare for and respond to climate change and variability**

***USACE Future Direction***

## USACE Coastal Climate Change Action Plan

**Adaptive Management &**
**Anticipatory Engineering**

**Current**
**Status**

**Near-term **
**(1-2yrs)**

**Mid-term **
**(2-5yrs)**

**Long-term **
**(5-10yrs)**

**Strategic Actions**
**(Does not exist)**

**Form interagency subcmt on SLR w/ NOS & USGS;**
**Incorporate recent science into planning**** guidance **

**Policy**
**(Does not exist)**

**Planning Guid****.**
**(Needs Updating)**

**Eng. Reg.**
**(Does not exist)**

**Operations**
**(Some inventories, but **
**no assessment of SLR)**

**R&D**
**(No activities ongoing****)**

**Identify legislative changes needed**
**(for robust implementation of AM/AE)**

**Obtain funding for FY09 & FY10;**
**Educate senior leaders; Connect with CCSP**

**Inventory Alaska District problems;**
**Examine statistics behind storm variability (underway)**

**Identify Coastal Projects that would be impacted **
**by SLR and increased storminess** **(will affect Eng. Reg.)**

**Develop Research Proposal on Anticipatory Eng.**
**(will affect Planning, Engineering & Ops, in mid-term)**

**PMP Activities**
**(No activities ongoing)**

**Write Project Management Plan (PMP);**
**Write proposal outlining mid-term activities**

***Corps already headed in this direction***

## New  Interim USACE Guidance

**New guidance on sea level rise is top priority for FY08**
**Interim Engineer Circular is being written**
**Changes in frequency, intensity and tracking patterns of hurricanes and other coastal storms may have more impact on coastal systems than sea level rise alone**

## Slide 11