# Presentation: 356768

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- What are some ideas that will help communicate the uncertainty of a forecast while still remaining authoritative?

##    Broadcasting Uncertainty

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Back in the 1960’s a well known weather broadcaster would “grade” his forecasts.

##    A  if certain 

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Back in the 1960’s a well known weather broadcaster would “grade” his forecasts.

-    A  if certain

##    A  if certain   B  fairly certain

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Back in the 1960’s a well known weather broadcaster would “grade” his forecasts.

-    A  if certain   B  fairly certain

##    A  if certain   B  fairly certain  C  could go either way 

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Back in the 1960’s a well known weather broadcaster would “grade” his forecasts.

-    A  if certain   B  fairly certain  C  could go either way

##    A  if certain   B  fairly certain  C  could go either way   D  anybody’s guess

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Back in the 1960’s a well known weather broadcaster would “grade” his forecasts.

-    A  if certain   B  fairly certain  C  could go either way   D  anybody’s guess

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

##  Yes !

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

-  Yes !

## Choose one forecast and stick with it !

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

- Choose one forecast and stick with it !

## Hope it’s correct.

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

## Chances are 50 – 50to less than 100%.

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

- Chances are 50 – 50to less than 100%.

## “When I’m right, no one remembers; when I’m wrong no one forgets.”

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

- “When I’m right, no one remembers; when I’m wrong no one forgets.”

## Or.........

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

## “Gee, I wish I could have a job and be wrong so often.”

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

- “Gee, I wish I could have a job and be wrong so often.”

## Remember that baseball players have to get a hit only one time out of three to make it to the Hall of Fame!

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

- Remember that baseball players have to get a hit only one time out of three to make it to the Hall of Fame!

##  No

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

-  No

##  Present multiple scenarios

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

-  Present multiple scenarios

##  If time does not allow for this, choose one and follow the “Yes” column.

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

-  If time does not allow for this, choose one and follow the “Yes” column.

##  If time DOES allow for this, the audience can help verify the options.

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

-  If time DOES allow for this, the audience can help verify the options.

##  Comments will be, “He or She said that this might happen.....”

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

-  Comments will be, “He or She said that this might happen.....”

##  Comments will be, “He or She said that this might happen, and it did!”

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

-  Comments will be, “He or She said that this might happen, and it did!”

##  This will give the audience ownership of the forecast.  It will invite them in as part of the decision making process.

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Weaken Credibility?

-  This will give the audience ownership of the forecast.  It will invite them in as part of the decision making process.

##    Broadcasting Uncertainty

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Rain?

##    Broadcasting Uncertainty

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

##  Midwest forecaster’s “Rule of Thumb”

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

-  Midwest forecaster’s “Rule of Thumb”
- Use the 540 thickness

##  Not always 100%

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

-  Not always 100%

##  Rain seldom needs extreme accuracy, but snow....?

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

-  Rain seldom needs extreme accuracy, but snow....?

##  <1”, 1-2”, 1-3”, 2-4” 3-5”, 4-8”, 6-10”, up to 10”, 

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

-  <1”, 1-2”, 1-3”, 2-4” 3-5”, 4-8”, 6-10”, up to 10”,
- 6-12”, 8-12”, over 10”, over 12”, 1 foot or more

##  All of the above

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

-  All of the above
- and then some

##  Drifting vs. not

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

-  Drifting vs. not

##  Lake enhanced, or not

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

-  Lake enhanced, or not

##  Here is an “AFTER”cast:

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

-  Here is an “AFTER”cast:

##  Here is an “AFTER”cast:

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

-  Here is an “AFTER”cast:
- “Snow overnight, accumulating between a trace and over 20 inches”

##  Believable?

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

-  Believable?

##    Broadcasting Uncertainty

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

- Here is the verification

##    Broadcasting Uncertainty

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Snow?

- Here is the verification

## Use the uncertainty        to your advantage

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Tease future Broadcasts or Briefings

## Use the uncertainty        to your advantage

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- At 6 tease the 10 or 11 pm broadcast

## Use the uncertainty        to your advantage

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- At 10 or 11 pm tease the morning broadcast

## Use the uncertainty        to your advantage

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Give the viewer a reason to come back for more

## Use the uncertainty        to your advantage

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- In some cases tease your broadcast on another outlet

## Use the uncertainty        to your advantage

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Such as your website or radio

## Honesty is Best Policy

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

## Honesty is Best Policy

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Extravagance or “Out on a Limb” may work in the short term, but is detrimental in the long run.

## Honesty is Best Policy

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Good conservative science works best over a career.

##    Broadcasting Uncertainty

**   ****Broadcasting Uncertainty**

- Thank you....
- Questions and Comments?

- By Tom Mahoney, Chief Meteorologist