# Presentation: 789456

## Renewable Resource Development in the Southeast:Preliminary Findings from Powering the South

**Tim Woolf****Synapse Energy Economics****22 Pearl Street, Cambridge, MA 02139****www.synapse-energy.com**
**NREL Energy Analysis Forum****Golden, Colorado****August 13, 2001**

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## Powering the South

- Study is currently being prepared in collaboration with the Renewable Energy Policy Project.
- Study is guided by an Advisory Committee made up of regional energy and environmental organizations.
- Study Authors:
- Renewable Energy Policy Project
- Synapse Energy Economics
- Brower and Company
- Tellus Institute
- Initial findings are presented here.  Findings may change before report is completed in February 2002.

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## Existing Levels of Renewables in the Southeast

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## New Renewables Proposed for the Southeast

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## Business as Usual Forecast for the Southeast

- Forecast from EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook.
- Heavy reliance upon coal and nuclear plants.
- Electricity demand increases rapidly.
- Large addition of new gas plants to meet load growth.

**Sources of Electricity in the Southeast.**
**Business As Usual Practices.**
- Generation (TWh)

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## The Clean Power Plan

- Adopt aggressive, but realistic, mix of efficient and clean energy technologies:
- End-use efficiency.
- Wind turbines:
- On-shore
- Off-shore
- Biomass:
- Co-firing
- Combined heat and power (CHP).
- Solar: photovoltaics.
- Retire portion of older, less efficient coal plants in response to CO2 reduction policy.

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## New Renewable Capacity in the Clean Power Plan

- New Renewables.
- 2010: 6,633 MW
- 2020: 17,780 MW
- Renewables as % of total capacity.
- 2010: 4%
- 2020: 10%

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## New Renewable Generation in the Clean Power Plan

- New Renewables.
- 2010: 32,973 GWh
- 2020: 83,917 GWh
- Renewables as % of total generation.
- 2010: 4%
- 2020: 10%

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## Distribution of New Renewable Capacity in 2020

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## Results of the Clean Power Plan

- Electricity demand:
- Annual growth rate of 0.7%.
- Down from nearly 2% in Base Case.
- New renewables:
- 4% of gen. by 2010.
- 10% by 2020.
- New gas:
- Clean Power Plan requires 51 GW less new gas capacity.

**Sources of Electricity in the Southeast.**
**The Clean Power Plan.**
- Generation (TWh)

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## The Clean Power Plan: CO2 emissions stabilized, but reductions not sufficient to meet Kyoto goal

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## Cost of the Clean Power Plan

- The Clean Power Plan can be achieved with almost negligible increases in electricity costs:
- Roughly one percent increase in total electricity costs in 2010 and 2020.
- The cost impacts are low partly because of the large net savings available from end-use efficiency.
- The costs are also low because of the limited amount of renewable resources adopted in this study.
- The Advisory Committee may decide to add more renewables for the final draft, resulting in higher costs.

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South

## Issues for Further Attention

- Wind siting issues:
- On-shore.
- Off-shore.
- Small wind turbines:
- What is their potential in states with lower wind speeds?
- Biomass resources:
- What environmental constraints should be applied?
- Photovoltaics:
- Cost and availability constraints?

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Powering the South