# Presentation: 868136

##  The Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis for 1911 to 1930

- Chris Landsea
- NOAA/Hurricane Research Division
- Miami, Florida, USA
- Informal Research Report
- June 28th, 2005

- Acknowledgements: NOAA/OGP grant (GC02-093) and
-                      IAI Small Grant Program II

##  The Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis for 1911 to 1930

- Uses of the Hurricane Database (HURDAT)
- Why do a re-analysis?
- Methodology/data sources
- Databases provided
- Changes for 1911 to 1930
- Highlights in context of climate variability
- Future work

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**Notes:**
This is the NOAA dork logo...

## NOAA Dork Logo

-  Track and
- Intensity
- Forecast
- Development
- and
- Verification

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**Notes:**
This is the NOAA dork logo...

## Climate Variability and Change Studies

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## Building Codes and

- Insurance Rates

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## HURDAT -

- Developed in the
- late 1960s in
- support of the Apollo
- Space program

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## Hurricane Bret (1999)

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## Center Fix and “Best Track” 

- Center Fix and “Best Track”

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## WHAT IS THE INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HOW IS IT MEASURED TODAY?

- Maximum sustained surface wind:  Maximum wind, averaged over 1 minute interval at an altitude of 33 ft (10 m), associated with the circulation of the tropical cyclone at a given point in time.
*With very, very few exceptions, direct observations of the maximum sustained surface wind in a tropical cyclone are not available.*

**Satellite imagery using the Dvorak technique**
**Aircraft reconnaissance flight-level winds**
**GPS dropwindsondes**
**SFMR surface winds**

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## Intensity Estimates and “Best Track” Values

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## Saffir-simpson scale

- Category    Windspeed       Pressure
-      1                64-82 kt       > 980 mb
-      2                83-95            979-965
-      3                96-113          964-945
-      4              114-135          944-920
-      5                 135+              < 920

- For U.S. Hurricane Landfalls:
- HURDAT – Basinwide in late 1960s by Neumann and Hope
- Saffir-Simpson Categorization – By Taylor and Hebert in mid-1970s, primarily by central pressure

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## Incorrect 

- intensity
- and location
- at landfall

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##  1911 Hurricane Season

- Open Atlantic
- Ocean Differences

-  1911 Hurricane Season

-  2000 Hurricane Season

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## Too Rapid During

- Last 6 Hours

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## Pressure-Wind 

- Pressure-Wind
- Relationship

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## Atlantic Major Hurricanes

- Landsea (1993)

- Bias-removed

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## GPS Dropsondes

- Franklin and Black (1999)

-       Mean Wind Profile

- Wind in Hurricane Georges

**GPS Dropsondes**

-    Measures the wind around and in hurricanes
- from the aircraft to the ocean’s surface

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##    Work of Jose Partagas:  

-    Work of Jose Partagas:
- Historical Reconstruction from 1851-1910

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## Hurricane Observational Milestones

- From the period 1886 to 1930, the original HURDAT was created from a once daily 12 GMT track and intensity estimate. The 00, 06, and 18 GMT track and intensity estimates were interpolated from two day’s 12 GMT estimates.
- Problematic for storms undergoing rapid intensification or rapid decay.

| Year | Observation Network (Source: Fitzpatrick, 1999) |
| --- | --- |
| 1800s | Ship Logs |
| 1845 | First telegraph line complete from Washington to Boston |
| 1846 | The invention of the cup anemometer by Robinson |
| 1870 | Smithsonian Institute volunteer weather observer network started in the U.S. |
| 1875 | First hurricane prediction system started by Benito Vines in Cuba |
| 1890 | U.S. weather service transferred to civilian agency - U.S. Weather Bureau |
| 1898 | U.S. Weather Bureau established observation stations throughout Caribbean |
| 1905 | First use of the radio to transmit weather observations from shipping vessels |
| 1940s | Beginning of regular aircraft reconnaissance for tropical cyclone observation |
| 1960s | Satellite observations used for tropical cyclone detection and observation |

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**Notes:**
Rapid intensification and rapid decay

## Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Dataset (COADS)

- Source: Woodruff et al, 1987

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## Monthly Weather Review

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## Monthly Weather Review

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## Monthly Weather Review

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## Original Monthly Records

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## Information resources at the Mexican Weather Service

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## Information resources at the Institute of Meteorology, Havana, Cuba

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## Historical Weather Maps

- The example to the right is an
- annotated Historical Weather
- Map. Some raw data are gathered from the HWM but it is mainly used as the synoptic background for plotting all raw data from the sources of COADS, MWR, OMR, and other historical reports.
- Observations are plotted for the time interval 10-14Z to maximize data near the synoptic time.

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## Using Ship

- Observations to
- Estimate the
- Hurricane’s
- Location

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## Ship Location Accuracy

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## Estimating Intensity with and without Aircraft Reconnaissance

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## Beaufort Scale

| Beaufort Number | Knots | Description | Specifications at Sea |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 0 | < 1 | Calm | Sea like a mirror |
| 1 | 1-3 | Light air | Ripples with the appearance of scales are formed, but without foam crest |
| 2 | 4-6 | Light breeze | Small wavelets, still short but more pronounced; crests have a glassy appearance and do not break |
| 3 | 7-10 | Gentle breeze | Large wavelets; crests begin to break; foam of glassy appearance; perhaps scattered white horses |
| 4 | 11-16 | Moderate breeze | Small waves, becoming longer; fairly frequent white horses |
| 5 | 17-21 | Fresh breeze | Moderate waves, taking a more pronounced long form; many white horses are formed (chance of some spray) |
| 6 | 22-27 | Strong breeze | Large waves begin to form; the white foam crests are more extensive everywhere (probably some spray) |
| 7 | 28-33 | Near gale | Sea heaps up and white foam from breaking waves begins to be blown in streaks in the direction of the wind |
| 8 | 34-40 | Gale | Moderately high waves of greater length; edges of crests begin to break into spindrift; foam is blown in well-marked streaks along the direction of the wind |
| 9 | 41-47 | Strong gale | High waves; dense streaks of foam along the direction of the wind; crests of waves begin to topple, tumble, and roll over; spray may affect visibility |
| 10 | 48-55 | Storm | Very high waves with long overhanging crests; the resulting foam, in great patches, is blown in dense white streaks along the direction of the wind; on the whole, the surface of the sea takes on a white appearance; the tumbling of the sea becomes heavy and shock-like; visibility affected |
| 11 | 56-63 | Violent storm | Exceptionally high waves (small and medium-sized ships might be for a time lost to view behind the waves); the sea completely covered with long white patches of foam lying along the direction of the wind; everywhere the edges of wave crests are blown into froth; visibility affected |
| 12 | > 63 | Hurricane | The air is filled with foam and spray; sea completely white with driving spray; visibility very seriously affected |

- Source: Fitzpatrick, 1999

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## Anemometer Bias

- Prior to the mid-1920’s, Robinson 4-cup anemometers were used that generally overestimated winds speeds greater than 30 knots (Fergusson and Covert, 1924).
- For example, a minimal hurricane force wind of 64 kt reduces to 50 kt after bias correction.
- Most anemometers were compromised or destroyed before sampling the highest winds.

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##  ATLANTIC PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIPS

-  P(MB)   GLFMEX     <25N      25-35N    35-45N    KRAFT      P(MB) P(IN)

-  960        100         100         94        90        102         960  28.35

- 1) GLFMEX 	Vmax(kt)=10.627*(1013-p)**0.5640   	n =664; r=0.991
- 2) <25N   	Vmax(kt)=12.016*(1013-p)**0.5337   	n =1033; r=0.994
- 3) 25-35N  	Vmax(kt)=14.172*(1013-p)**0.4778   	n =922; r=0.996
- 4) 35-45N  	Vmax(kt)=16.086*(1013-p)**0.4333  	 n =492; r=0.974
- 5)For Kraft   	Vmax(kt)=14.000*(1013-p)**0.5000   	n =13; r=  ??

- Estimating the Central Pressure
- (Pr – Pc)/(Pe – Pc) = exp(-RMW/R)

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## Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW)

- Vickery et al. (2001) derived an equation for the radius of maximum winds (RMW) of north Atlantic tropical cyclones expressed in terms of central pressure (Po), environmental pressure (Pn), and latitude (L):
- ln(RMW) = 2.363 – 0.00005086*( Po - Pn)2 + 0.0394899*(L)
- RWM of 25 to 50 percent less than climatology had an increase  of about 5 kt while systems that had extremely smaller RMW (greater than 50 percent) were strengthened by 10 kt.

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## Storm Surge

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## Surveys of Wind-caused Damage

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## Kaplan and DeMaria (1995): Inland Wind Decay Model

- The Inland Wind Decay Model was used to determine the best track after landfalling tropical cyclones.
- Only used in the absence of observed winds.
- Designed for landfalling tropical cyclones over the southeastern U.S. where nearly all the regions within 150 nmi of the coast have elevations less than 650 ft.
- Not applicable for higher terrains such as Cuba, Hispaniola, and Mexico.

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**Notes:**
30% decay in higher terrains

## Reanalysis Steps

- 1.) Gather all available raw data into a single database
- 2.) Determine track
- 3.) Determine intensity
- 4.) Document revisions (metadata file)
- For each storm, a synoptic analysis is performed once daily and more often if data availability allows.

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## Raw Data (Gales) for 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

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## Historical Weather Map Observations

- for the 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

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## Revised “Best Track” (HURDAT) Data 

**19930 08/23/1911 M= 8  2 SNBR= 457 NOT NAMED   XING=1 SSS=2**
**19930 08/23/1911 M= 9  4 SNBR= 459 NOT NAMED   XING=1 SSS=2**
**                    *****  *       ***                        **
**19935 08/23*  0   0   0    0*237 668  50    0*241 674  50    0*245 680  55    0**
**19935 08/23*  0   0   0    0*252 655  35    0*255 665  40    0*258 674  40    0**
**                             ******* ***  **      *** ***  **      *** ***  ****
**19940 08/24*250 687  65    0*254 693  70    0*258 700  70    0*262 707  75    0**
**19940 08/24*261 683  45    0*263 692  50    0*265 700  55    0*267 707  60    0**
**            ******* ***  **      *** ***  **      ***      **      ***      ****
**19945 08/25*265 714  75    0*269 721  80    0*273 728  85    0*279 735  85    0**
**19945 08/25*269 714  65    0*272 721  70    0*275 728  70    0*280 735  75    0**
**            *******      **      ***      **      ***      **      ***      ****

- Revised “Best Track” (HURDAT) Data
- for 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

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## Metadata File for the 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

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## Minutes of the  NHC best-track change committee meeting

- Members Jack Beven, Jim Gross, Richard Pasch, Ed Rappaport, and chair (Colin McAdie) present. (meeting 5 – 22 March, 2002)
- The committee met to continue consideration of the most recent set of best-track changes provided by Chris Landsea et al.   The committee resumed discussion with storm 1 of 1897, as agreed, completed discussion on the second third (1890-1899) of the material and then proceeded through storm 5 (becoming 6) of 1901.
- Jack Beven noted that the use of 3- or 4-cup anemometers in the early portion of the record could affect wind estimates.   Although there may be a systematic way to handle this, it is not clear whether this has been accounted for.
-    < Yes, this has been accounted for as best possible.  In use during the period being revised - 1851 to 1910, though anemometers were mainly available from the 1870s onward at coastal stations - was the four cup Robinson anemometer.  However, the primary difficulties with this instrument were its calibration and its mechanical failure in high wind  conditions.  Even as late as 1890, the highest wind that could be reliably calibrated with this instrument was only about 30 kt (from a whirling machine), due to lack of a strict comparison with a known quantity of stronger winds (Fergusson and Covert 1924).... >

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## 1921 Tampa Bay 

- Hurricane

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## 1926 Great Miami Hurricane

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## 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane

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## Changes to U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes

**#-Year****	****Original****	****	****Revised****	****	****#-Year****	****Original****	****	****Revised**
- 2-1911 	AFL1,AL1 	AFL1,AL1 	1-1921	BTX2		BTX1,CTX1
- 3-1911 	GA2,SC2 		SC2, GA1 		**7-1921****	****BFL3,DFL2****	****BFL3,****AFL2****,****DFL1**
- 4-1912 	AL1 		AL1,AFL1 	5-1923	LA1		LA1
- 6-1912 	ATX1 		ATX2 		2-1924	TS		NC1
- 1-1913 	ATX1 		ATX1 		4-1924	AFL1		AFL1
- 4-1913 	NC1 		NC1 		8-1924	BFL1		BFL2,CFL1
- 5-1913 	TS 		SC1 		2-1925	BFL1		ET
**2-1915****	****CTX4****	****	****CTX4,****BTX1**	1-1926	DFL2		DFL2
- 4-1915	AFL1		AFL1		**3-1926****	****LA3****	****	****LA3**
**6-1915****	****LA4****	****	****LA3****,****MS1****	**	**7-1926****	****CFL4,BFL3,****	****CFL4,BFL3,**
**1-1916****	****MS3,AL3****	****	****MS3,AL3,****AFL2**		**AFL3,AL3****	****AFL3,AL3,****MS1**
- 2-1916	MA1		TS		1-1928	CFL2		CFL2
- 3-1916	SC1		SC2		**4-1928****	****CFL4,DFL2,****	****CFL4,****BFL3****,****AFL1****,**
**4-1916****	****ATX3****	****	****ATX4**			**GA1,SC1****	****	****DFL1****,GA1,SC1**
- 11-1916	AL2,AFL2		AL2,AFL2		1-1929	BTX1		BTX1
- 12-1916	BFL1		ET		**2-1929****	****CFL3,AFL2****	****CFL3,****BFL2****,****AFL1**
**3-1917****	****AFL3****	****	****AFL3,****LA2,AL1**
**1-1918****	****LA3****	****	****LA3,****CTX1**
**2-1919****	****BFL4,ATX4****	****BFL4,****CFL2****,****ATX3****,****BTX3**
- 2-1920	LA2		LA2
- 3-1920	NC1		TS
**Overall changes:  ****6 up 1 Category****, 23 same, ****6 down 1 Category**

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## US MajorHurricanes

- US MajorHurricanes

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## Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-Analysis Project

- Picture from: **"Florida's Hurricane History"**, by Jay Barnes

- http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html

- 1911 through 1914 changes accepted and officially
-    adopted by NHC.
- 1915 through 1922 have been submitted to NHC.
- 1923 through 1930 will be submitted to NHC by the
-    end of August.
- Pre-reconnaissance era completed by end of 2005.

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## Hurricane Andrew

- Re-analysis:
- New H*Wind Method -
- 153 kt (94% of flight level)
- NHC Method –
- 146 kt (90% of flight level)

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## Co-Authors

- 1911:  William Bredemeyer
- 1912:  William Bredemeyer
- 1913:  John Gamache
- 1914:  John Gamache
- 1915:  John Gamache
- 1916:  David Glenn
- 1917:  Donna Thomas
- 1918:  David Glenn
- 1919:  Ryan Ellis
- 1920:  Lyle Hufstetler
- 1921:  Steve Feuer
- 1922:  Steve Feuer
- 1923:  Steve Feuer
- 1924:  Steve Feuer
- 1925:  Steve Feuer
- 1926:  Jamese Sims, Steve Feuer, Andy Hagen
- 1927:  David Glenn
- 1928:  Steve Feuer, David Glenn
- 1929:  Lyle Hufstelter, Andy Hagen
- 1930:  Nick Anderson, Andy Hagen
- Special Thanks: Lenworth Woolcock, Jorge Sanchez, Ricardo Prieto, Ramon Perez, Joyce Berkeley, Michael Chenoweth, Cary Mock, Charlie Neumann, and the NHC Best Track Change Committee

## Aircraft Reconnaissance: 1960

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