# Presentation: 667104

## Since November...AgExports unchanged at record $64.5 billionAgImports raised $2 billion to $63.5 billion AgTrade Surplus Falls to $1.0 billion

**FY 2006 Export Forecasts for**
**Ag, Fishery & Solid Wood Products**

- USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
- will be released on February 16, 2006, 9am EST
- Prepared by Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

## U.S. Agricultural Trade

**U.S. Agricultural Trade**

***Exports***

***Imports***

***Trade Balance******   ***

- Horticultural products, beef & cotton drive export growth in 2006.  Large US & foreign grain and oilseed supplies keep the export value of those products in check.  Import growth continues on strong demand for fruits & vegs, wine & beer, & tropical products.

**63.5**

- Record

- 62.4

**1.0**

**64.5**

- 57.7

**4.7**

## Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

**Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products**

- Includes corn gluten feed/meal

- Revised FY 2006 Forecasts
*Upside Developments*
-  Unit value for corn raised due to strong domestic demand for feed and ethanol
-  Unit value for hard wheat raised on concerns over US growing conditions & strong foreign demand
*Downside Developments*
-  Large global grain supplies
-  Lower exportable supplies of hard red winter wheat
-  Corn forecast lowered 4 mmt due to renewed competition from China and weaker foreign demand
*Wild Cards*
-  Size of US and Argentine crops
-  China’s corn export policy

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $200 million to $16.5 billion

## Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

**Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products**

**Excludes corn gluten feed/meal**

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $500 million to $9.8 billion

- Revised FY 2006 Forecasts
*Upside Developments*
-  Soybean export unit value rises to $240/ton (about the same as 2005)
-  Demand from bio-fuels industry
- China’s soybean imports remain at record 27.5 mmt
*Downside Developments*
-  Larger S Amer. soybean supplies; strong competition lowers US mkt share in Europe & China
-  Slower sales to China
*Wild Cards*
-  Size of US and S American crops
-  China’s soybean demand

## Export Outlook for Cotton

**Export Outlook for Cotton**

- Note:  FY ’05 and prior years based on U.S Census data; FY ’06 forecast based on WASDE MY forecast.

- Revised FY 2006 Forecasts
*Upside Developments*
-  Continued demand growth in China
-  Record US 2005/06 crop and weaker US demand increases exportable supply
*Downside Developments*
-  Logistical issues at warehouses and for transportation pose challenges to exporters

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:  Unchanged at $4.5 billion

## Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry

**Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry**

- Revised FY 2006 Forecasts
*Upside Developments*
-  Beef estimate raised 75,000 and $330 mil. to 287,000 valued at $1.3 bil. with the assumed  resumption of sales to Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan & Singapore
-  Beef offals up $100 mil on higher prices & exports to Egypt
*Downside Developments*
-  Pork export growth slows, but still at record volume & value
-  Poultry meat exports lowered slightly due to global AI concerns
-  Milk powder (NFDM) volume down due to higher prices
*Wild Cards*
-  Disease outbreaks, esp. AI worldwide & FMD in S. America
-  Beef exports to Japan & Korea

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $100 million to $12.6 billion

- Record

## Export Outlook for Horticultural Products

- Revised FY 2006 Forecasts
*Upside Developments*
-  Generally higher prices across many products raises export value
-  Continued demand for tree nuts (esp. in the EU) and higher prices
-  Strong sales of processed food preparations to Canada and Mexico
-  Higher prices and stronger deciduous fruit exports to East Asia (mainly apples and table grapes)
*Downside Developments*
-  Wine exports expected to remain flat to slightly lower this year
-  Florida hurricane damage lowers the citrus crop recovery from last yr
*Wild Cards*
-  Size of US and foreign crops
-  Prices and exchange rates
-  Demand for high-priced tree nuts

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $400 million to $16.3 billion

- Record

## Export Outlook for Fishery Products

**Export Outlook for Fishery Products**

_***Trade Balance***_
**The FY 2005 trade deficit in fishery products was $7.9 billion.**

- Revised FY 2006 Forecasts
*Upside Developments*
-   Exports to the European Union, which are up 25 percent during the 1st qtr, continue a 3-year upward trend
-  King crab exports are up 9.5% (value) after a decline in 2005
-  Exports of lobster, mackerel and scallops are on track to increase for the 4th year in a row
*Downside Developments*
-  The 2006 harvest forecast for Alaska Bristol Bay sockeye salmon is down 3% from the 2005 harvest
*Wild Cards*
-  Size of U.S. harvests of lobster, salmon, and other species

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:  Steady at $4 billion

- Record

## Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products

**Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products**

_***Trade Balance***_
**The FY ‘05 trade deficit in wood products was $17.9 billion.**

- Revised FY 2006 Forecasts
*Upside Developments*
-  China imports more US softwoods for outdoor and large-scale nonresidential construction projects
-  Exports to the Caribbean rise as hurricane-related construction builds momentum
*Downside Developments*
-  Exports to Canada hindered by decreased demand for US hardwoods
-  Softwood log and lumber exports to Japan continue decreasing
*Wild Cards*
-  US housing market demand

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:   Unchanged at $5.9 billion