# Presentation: 082884

## Forces Shaping the Future of Public Natural Lands in the United States

**Population Growth**
**Economic Growth**
**Footprints on the Land**

**Forces Shaping the Future of Public Natural Lands in the United States**

**Co-Authors:**
**Ken Cordell (FS)**
**John Bergstrom (UGA)**
**Carter Betz (FS)**
**Gary Green (UGA)**

**www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends**

## DEMOGRAPHIC DATA SOURCE

- This published book examined the population, demographic, urban, rural, economic, leisure and recreation trends of the United States. An update is underway.

- ***********

- *******

**DEMOGRAPHIC DATA SOURCE**

## Update prepared as a chapter for the ISSRM book

**By**
**H. Ken Cordell****1****, John C. Bergstrom****2****, Carter J. Betz****1****, and Gary T. Green****2**
***Introduction***
**This chapter is devoted to providing up-to-date summaries of a number of highly important social and economic trends that will play a role in the future of the United States and its natural resources. The trend topics covered include population growth, changing composition of the population, urban growth and sprawl, transition of rural lands, economic growth, consumer spending, and recreation demands. This chapter is essentially an abbreviated update of the book *****Footprints on the Land***** (Cordell & Overdevest, 2001). It is undertaken ........**

- 	1Project Leader and Outdoor Recreation Planner respectively, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Athens, GA.
- 	2Respectively, Professor, Agriculture & Applied Economics, and Assistant Research Scientist, Warnell School of Forest Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA.

**Update prepared as a chapter for the ISSRM book**

## Change came fast .........

**Change came fast .........**

## Slide 5

## A Rich Public Natural Land System was Added

**A Rich Public Natural Land System was Added**

## Natural Settings for Fun

**Natural Settings for Fun**

## Forests, Rivers and Minerals for Raw Materials

**Forests, Rivers and Minerals for Raw Materials**

- Source: Arthur Carhart National Wilderness Training Center

## A Management Challenge for a Sustainable Future

**A Management Challenge for a Sustainable Future**

- Source: Arthur Carhart National Wilderness Training Center

## Irreplaceable Wild Lands Under Protection

**Irreplaceable Wild Lands Under Protection**

- Source: Arthur Carhart National Wilderness Training Center

## A System of Public Lands and Wilderness Across the United States Where Natural Processes Dominate

## PUBLIC LANDS IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING SOCIAL LANDSCAPE

**IMMIGRATION: A Growing World Population on the Move**

**PUBLIC LANDS IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING SOCIAL LANDSCAPE**

## http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/ 

**http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/**

**P****opulation densities (per square km). **

## Slide 14

## MILLIONS OF IMMIGRANTS LIVING IN THE U.S. BY YEAR OF ENTRY

**1990 to 2000****	****1980-1989****	****1970-1979****	****Before 1970**
**___________________________________________**
**5.070****	****	****3.541****	****	****2.393****	****	****2.408 **

**Source: United States Bureau of Census**

## Source: U. S. Census

**Source: U. S. Census**

## Source: U. S. Census

**Source: U. S. Census**

## ?

**Including Undocumented (Est.)**

**?**

**Annual in Thousands**

## Historic and Projected U. S. Population by Ethnicity

**Historic and Projected U. S. Population by Ethnicity**

## U. S. Population Growth:
Immigration plus Natural Growth

**Immigration plus Natural Growth**

**PUBLIC LANDS IN A RAPIDLY CHANGING SOCIAL LANDSCAPE**

## Slide 21

## Life Expectancy

**Life Expectancy**

**Source: Social Security Administration**

## Historical and Projected Population in the U.S.

## Slide 24

## GROWTH = Population Plus Economic Expansion

## Slide 26

## Slide 27

## Slide 28

## Slide 29

## Recreation Activity Growth in order of Added Number Participating

**Family gathering**
**View wildlife**
**Visit nature centers**
**Bicycling**
**View/photograph fish**
**Day hiking**
**Running or jogging**
**Picnicking**
**Attend outdoor concerts, etc.**
**View birds**
**Developed camping**
**Swimming in natural waters**
**Attend outdoor sports events**
**Visit historic sites**

**Snowmobiling**
**Kayaking**
**Ice skating outdoors**
**Mountain climbing**
**Big game hunting**
**Saltwater fishing**
**Small game hunting**
**Rock climbing**
**Downhill skiing**
**Cross country skiing**
**Sailing**
**Snorkeling or scuba diving**
**Rowing**
**Migratory bird hunting**
**Surfing**
**Pool swimming**
**Anadromous fishing**
**Caving**

_**GREATEST GROWTH**_

_**LEAST GROWTH**_

**Sledding**
**Jet skiing**
**Visit arch. sites**
**Drive off-road**
**Coldwater fishing**
**Warmwater fishing**
**Soccer outdoors**
**Backpacking**
**Visit beach or waterside**
**Horseback riding**
**Canoeing**
**Primitive camping**
**Motorboating**
**Snowboarding**
**Whitewater Rafting**

_**MODERATE**_

_**Recreation Activity Growth in order of Added Number Participating**_

## Growth and the Internet Connection with the World

## How it started

**ARPANET, known today as the Internet, was brought online in December 1969, when it initially connected four major computers at universities in the southwestern US (UCLA, Stanford Research Institute, UCSB, and the University of Utah). By January 1971, MIT, Harvard, BBN, Systems Development Corp, Stanford, MIT's Lincoln Labs, Carnegie-Mellon, and Case-Western Reserve University were added. **

**How it started**

## GROWTH OF INTERNET USERS WORLD WIDE

**Dec. 1995****	****	****	****16 Million**
**Dec. 1997****	****	****	****70 Million**
**Dec. 1999****	****	****	****248 Million**
**Dec. 2000****	****	****	****451 Million**
**Dec. 2003****	****	****	****719 Million**
**April 2004****	****	****	****757 Million**

**Source: Worldstats.com**

## Slide 34

|  |
| --- |
| ^ Top of page |

| World Regions | Population( 2004 Est.) | Internet Usage,( Year 2000 ) | Internet Usage,Latest Data | User Growth( 2000-2004 ) | % Pop. | % ofTable |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Africa | 905,954,600 | 4,514,400 | 10,095,200 | 123.6 % | 1.1 % | 1.3 % |
| Asia | 3,654,644,200 | 114,303,000 | 236,591,317 | 107.0 % | 6.5 % | 31.2 % |
| Europe |  728,857,380 | 100,993,093 | 204,802,658 | 102.8 % | 28.1 % | 27.1 % |
| Middle East | 259,166,000 | 5,272,300 | 14,472,500 | 174.5 % | 5.6 % | 1.9 % |
| North America | 326,695,500 | 108,096,800 | 226,409,994 | 109.5 % | 69.3 % | 29.9 % |
| Latin America/Caribbean | 546,100,900 | 18,068,919 | 49,504,287 | 174.0 % | 9.1 % | 6.5 % |
| Oceania | 31,892,487 | 7,619,500 | 15,654,781 | 105.5 % | 49.1 % | 2.1 % |
| WORLD TOTAL | 6,453,311,067 | 358,871,012 | 757,530,737 | 111.1 % | 11.7 % | 100.0 % |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| NOTES: (1) Internet Usage and Population Stats were updated on April 30, 2004.  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

## Slide 35

| NORTH AMERICA | Population( 2004 Est.) | Internet Users,Latest Data | Use Growth(2000-2004) | % Population(Penetration) |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Bermuda | 65,000 | 30,000 | 20.0 % | 46.2 % |  |
| Canada | 32,026,600 | 16,841,811 | 32.6 % | 52,6 % |  |
| Greenland | 56,600 | 20,000 | 12.4 % | 35.3 % |  |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |
| United States | 294,540,100 | 209,518,183 | 108.8 % | 71.1 % |  |
| Total | 326,695,500  | 215,988,656  | 99.8 % | 66.1 % |  |

## Footprints of Growth

**Footprints of Growth**

## Description of the Area Within 1⁄2 Mile of Where People Live 

| 
Description of Area | U.S. 

(n=4988) | North 

(n=2098) | South                       

(n=1342) | Rocky Mtns. 
(n=932) | Pacific Coast 
(n=616) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Established downtown area | 9.2 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 9.6 |
| Established older residential area near downtown | 24.9 | 26.5 | 20.7 | 22.0 | 31.2 |
| Established newer residential area | 14.5 | 14.3 | 13.9 | 17.9 | 12.7 |
| Newly developing area where building is active | 9.9 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.0 |
| New residential and preexisting rural house and farms | 16.9 | 17.9 | 17.6 | 15.3 | 14.7 |
| Rural area with little new development | 21.1 | 20.0 | 24.1 | 21.4 | 18.3 |
| Don’t know | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.00 |

**Description of the Area Within 1⁄2 Mile of Where People Live **

-   (Percent of Population)

## Slide 38

## Slide 39

## 34.5 Million Acres 1982 to 2002

**34.5 Million Acres 1982 to 2002**

## NC, GA, FL

**NC, GA, FL**

## MI, OH, PA

**MI, OH, PA**

## CA, TX

**CA, TX**

## More land is developed per capita now than in previous decades

**More land is developed per capita now than in previous decades**

## Slide 45

## Slide 46

## More people in urban and near urban areas

**More people in urban and near urban areas**

## Footprints Nearing Public Lands

## Slide 49

## Spatial Relationship of NFs to Heavily Populated Counties 2025

**Spatial Relationship of NFs to Heavily Populated Counties 2025**

## Percent of UNF Visits by Persons Living Within 50 Miles of the Forest

**Percent of UNF Visits by Persons Living Within 50 Miles of the Forest**

## Public Lands and NWPS Lands Overlaid onto Projected Demand Hotspots, 2020

**Population/Consumption growth is THE natural resource issue of the 21****st**** Century. All others pale.**

## 6,370,442,414

**15:42:54 GMT (5/25/04 at 11:42:54 AM EDT) is **
**6,370,442,414**

**Growing Roughly 6 million per month**

## Slide 54

## Spring 2004

**Spring 2004**

## NSRE 2005

_**NSRE 2005**_

***NATIONAL SURVEY ON RECREATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT***
***SINCE 1960***
_***THE UNITED STATES’ ON-GOING NATIONAL RECREATION SURVEY***_

## Slide 57

## Forces Shaping the Future of Public Natural Lands in the United States

**Population Growth**
**Economic Growth**
**Footprints on the Land**

**Forces Shaping the Future of Public Natural Lands in the United States**

**Co-Authors:**
**Ken Cordell (FS)**
**John Bergstrom (UGA)**
**Carter Betz (FS)**
**Gary Green (UGA)**

**www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends**