# Presentation: 724361

## Fiscal ‘04 AgExport Forecast at Record $61.5 BilAgImports Rise to Record $51.5 Bil 

**Export Forecasts for Agricultural,**
**Fishery & Solid Wood Products**

- USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
- will be released on May 25, 2004 (4pm EST)
- Prepared by Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

## U.S. Agricultural Trade

**U.S. Agricultural Trade**

- Records

- Record

***Exports***

***Imports***

***Trade Balance   ***

- Exports expected to rise $5.3 billion in 2004 due to higher volumes/prices for feed grains, cotton & horticultural prods; despite lower soybean & beef shipments.  Larger gain for imports drives trade surplus slightly lower.

## Key Commodity/Country Changes in 2004 Exports

|  | 
Final
FY 2003 | Feb
FY ‘04
For. | May
FY ‘04
For. | 
Feb/May
Chg | 

Main Reasons |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Livstk Prods ($ Bil) | 9.074 | 6.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 | (+) beef/pork vol; cattle by-prods |
| Hort. ($ Bil) | 11.903 | 12.8 | 13.4 | +0.6 | exchg rate; tree nuts; misc h-v |
| Corn ($Bil) | 4.563 | 5.9 | 6.3 | +0.4 | (+) price/volume |
| Wheat ($Bil) | 3.926 | 4.6 | 4.9 | +0.3 | (+) volume |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Wheat (mmt) | 24.434 | 29.0 | 30.5 | +1.5 | (+) demand; (-) competition |
| Corn (mmt) | 41.037 | 51.0 | 52.0 | +1.0 | (-) competition w/ China |
| Broiler meat (mmt) | 2.162 | 2.4 | 2.1 | -0.3 | Russia, higher prices; AI |
| Beef & pork (mmt) | 1.993 | 1.1 | 1.4 | +0.25 | beef to Mex; US pork competitive |

**Key Commodity/Country Changes in 2004 Exports**

- China +$500 million to $5.9 billion (cotton, soybeans)
- Japan +$900 million to $8.7 billion (corn, soybeans, fruit, tree nuts, rice)
- Mexico +$1 billion to $8.7 billion (grains, cotton, soybeans, broiler meat, vegetables)
- Korea +$500 million to $2.6 billion (corn, fruit)
-  **Top regional market: W Hemisphere and Asia running neck-and-neck**

***Since February . . .***

## Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

**Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products**

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast:     $900 Million to $18.0 Billion

- Includes corn gluten feed/meal

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast
*Key Upside Developments*
- Export volumes raised for wheat, corn and rice
- Higher unit prices for corn
- Continued absence of near-term competition for wheat, rice and corn
- China’s demand for imported wheat increased

## Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

**Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products**

- Excludes corn gluten feed/meal

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast:     Unchanged at $10.6 Billion

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast
*Key Upside Developments*
- Strong China soybean demand
- Prices remain firm

## Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters

**Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters**

- Note:  FY ’03 and prior years based on U.S Census data; FY ‘04 and ’05 forecasts based on WASDE MY forecast.

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast:      $100 Million to $4.2 Billion

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast
*Key Upside Developments*
- Mill use, particularly in China, continues strong
- US export volume to China raised
- Weaker U.S. dollar and global economic growth support exports

## Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry

**Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry**

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast:      $1 Billion to $10.6 Billion

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast
*Key Upside Developments*
- Beef raised 75 TMT as trade to Mexico of selected products resumes
- Pork raised to record         670 TMT
- Cattle by-products raised $525 mil as expectations on bans did not hold true
- Weaker US dollar & global econ growth support exports
*Key Downside Development*
- Broiler meat sales lowered 285 TMT with lower sales to Russia, higher prices slowing sales & Avian Influenza bans

- TMT = thousand metric tons

## Export Outlook for Horticultural Products

**Export Outlook for Horticultural Products**

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast:     $600 Million to $13.4 Billion

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast
*Key Upside Developments*
- Strong growth for first 6 months, led by tree nuts and highly- processed misc. products
- Strong exports to NAFTA partners, key Asian markets, and Europe
- Weaker U.S. dollar and global economic growth support exports

## Export Outlook for Fishery Products

**Export Outlook for Fishery Products**

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast:      $100 Million to $3.2 Billion

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast
*Key Upside Development*
- Crab & squid exports already exceed 2003 export levels
- Weaker U.S. dollar and global economic growth support exports
*Key Downside Development*
- Salmon roe exports may slip

## Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products

**Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products**

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast:      $200 Million to $5.3 Billion

- Revised FY 2004 Forecast
*Key Upside Development*
- Exports to Canada rise, responding to re-export demand for valued-added products created by U.S. housing market
- Weaker U.S. dollar and global economic growth support exports