# Presentation: 562692

## Objective

- experimental warnings development and **pathways **
- to solutions
- We will not get bogged down in trying to find solutions
- here, just in refining the challenge list

**Objective**

## To get you started...possible “Big challenge” areas

**Cultural differences:** Understanding how people make action decisions
**Verification:** Finding new measures that better assess how we’re doing
**Inertia:** Moving away from “one size fits all” warnings and sirens
**Communication:** Turning uncertainty information into a clear message
**Preparedness:** Stressing the need for action before the storm arrives

**To get you started...possible “Big challenge” areas**

## Vulnerability

- being overwhelmed by it?
- 1 person in a concrete bunker
- 2 people in a mobile home with a nearby shelter
- 3 people in a mobile home with no nearby shelter
- 4 people in a “permanent” home
- 35 people at a small business
- 90 people at a nursing home
- 200 children out camping
- 500 people at a manufacturing plant
- 800 people at a theater complex
- 1,200 students at a school
- 3,000 people at a hospital
- 100,000 people at an outdoor stadium
- ...all threatened in a single tornado outbreak?

**Vulnerability**

*An F4 tornado strikes the Parsons Manufacturing Plant near Roanoke, IL on 13 July 2004. Over 100 people at*
*the plant took cover and no one was seriously injured*

## Cultural Differences

- People in different cultural groups might make decisions during
- threatening weather differently. How do we identify and deal
- with these issues?
- Men vs. women
- Young vs. elderly
- Caucasian
- Hispanic
- African-AmericanTornado-alley vs. elsewhere
- and so on...

**Cultural Differences**

## Verification

- are doing? What changes can we aim for?
- Considerations:
- - Lead time
- - Probability of detection
- - False alarm rate
- - False alarm area

**Verification**

## Inertia

- (10-15 minutes of lead time, high false alarm rate, but no
- missed events)
- Possible issues:- “We can never express uncertainty in warnings”
- - People expect “one size fits all” warnings
- - Dependence on sirens
- - “Just tell me what to do!”

**Inertia**

## Communication

- consistent message?
- Possible issues:- “Call to action” message wording- Various dissemination pathways
-  Partnerships
-  Technology

**Communication**

- Warning!

## Preparedness

- - Long-term preparedness issues
- - Days before the outbreak
-  The morning of the event
-  Hours beforehand

**Preparedness**

## Your assignment

- Using these suggestions as a starting point, **develop and refine a **
**list of specific challenges for HWT experimental warnings and**
**possible pathways to solutions**, and any relevant points of
- discussion. **Don’t **try to solve the problems (but if you have an idea
- jot it down!)
**Example**: *Study is needed on why elderly people are more at risk *
*during tornado events and what can be done to address this (note: *
*elderly people probably rely most on television and radio to get *
*warnings and might take longer than other people to get to shelter)*
- The **breakout sessions** will be a good time to clarify the list.
**E-mail or hand me your list by Tuesday evening** and we will
- revisit it on Wednesday morning.

**Your assignment**