# Presentation: 691207

## Observations

- Vision for 2025:  “The NWS provides the world’s most accurate and highest quality weather, water, climate, and related environmental data.....based on cutting-edge science and technology.”
**Comprehensive observations are fundamental to this vision.**

## Value of a specific observation depends upon the application.

- Subjective forecasting by trained meteorologists (watches, warnings, advisories, special weather statements)
- Objective forecasting via statistics (empirical) or NWP (dynamical/physical)
- Climate monitoring and attribution

## Categorizing observations by intended use

**Categorizing observations by intended use**

- Subjective forecasting - smallest area, shortest deadlines, greatest detail
- Objective forecasting - regional to global, hours to ten days, detail depends upon phenomena to be captured
- Climate - regional to global, weeks to centuries, details less important than long-term stability and reliability of record

## Type and coverage of observations dictated by phenomena to be observed or predicted

***Type***** and *****coverage***** of observations dictated by phenomena to be observed or predicted**

- Subjective forecasting - airport microburst; severe thunderstorm
- Objective forecasting - Squall line; a nor’easter; shift in major trough position
- Climate - small increase in lower tropospheric temperature in two decades; transition between El Nino and La Nina

## Global-scale observations to support longer-range forecasts

**Global-scale observations to support longer-range forecasts**

- Uniform coverage probably most important criterion.
- Satellites probably the best answer, especially if international sharing of observations is curtailed

- Geostationary - frequent observation of a single large area; passive sensing
- Polar orbiter - global coverage but less frequent observations; active and passive sensing

## Global observing systems: satellites General statements valid today

**Global observing systems: satellites General statements valid today**

- Good horizontal but poor vertical resolution
- Clouds block infrared observations
- Microwave observations proving worth: AMSU, scatterometer (sea surface wind speed and direction), microwave imagers (sea surface wind speed), TRMM
- Wind information from feature tracking - difficult to show positive impact on forecasts

## Global observing systems: satellites Future capabilities

**Global observing systems: satellites Future capabilities**

- Advanced radiometers / interferometers
-    -  AIRS
-    -  GIFTS
- Wind-finding lidars on satellites
- GPS occultation - good vertical but poor horizontal resolution
- Lidars on LEOs for clear-air moisture soundings

- Greatest challenge: not the deployment of satellites nor the collection of data, but rather full exploitation of these observations in models through data assimilation

## Global observing systems: non-satellite

**Global observing systems: non-satellite**

- In situ sensing
- 	Today: radiosondes, AMDAR (neither is entirely a U.S responsibility
- 	Tomorrow: combination of stratospheric balloons and aerosondes that drop instrument packages
- Targeted observations: by definition, no need for global coverage
- 	Today: dropsondes
- 	Tomorrow: unpiloted aircraft besides

## Regional-scale observations to support WFOs and short-term mesoscale forecasts

**Regional-scale observations to support WFOs and short-term mesoscale forecasts**

- Frequency and dense coverage both important
- Combination of in situ and ground-based remote sensing probably best answer; satellites fill in holes and give info on surface properties (wet or dry, bright or dark, vegetated or barren)
- In situ data needed to calibrate satellite data, especially over land
- Greatest unmet need for observations: atmospheric boundary layer, the incubator for most high-impact weather
- Variable most important to observe better: water in all phases (vapor, clouds, hydrometeors by type, fallen precipitation)

## Regional-scale observations to support WFOs and short-term mesoscale forecasts

**Regional-scale observations to support WFOs and short-term mesoscale forecasts**

- New applications
- Air chemistry / quality
- Ground hydrology
- Hydrometeor typing and sizing

## What’s lacking in the report?

**What’s lacking in the report?**

- Observations for monitoring the sun and providing warnings of solar/geomagnetic storms
- Observations to estimate surface energy budgets
- Observations to augment sparse networks for measuring
-     -  solar (direct and diffuse) and infrared hemispheric radiation
-     -  surface evaporation (pan evaporation)
-     -  ultraviolet flux at the ground (verification of UV index)
- Observations to supplement EPA network of real-time air quality measurements (currently concentrated near large population centers)

## What’s lacking in the report? (continued)

**What’s lacking in the report? **(continued)

- Observations of atmospheric aerosols
-    -  concentration
-    -  size distribution
-    -  chemical makeup
-    -  local and regional sources, but dispersed globally by the wind
-    -  strong influence on microphysics of clouds
- Consider active sensing from commercial aircraft using lidar for NWS After Next
- Consider non-US satellites, especially ESA satellites

## What’s lacking in the report? (continued)

**What’s lacking in the report? **(continued)

- No attempt to prioritize observing systems according to utility or cost.
- However......
- Discussion group at first TIP meeting began to address prioritization
- Meso-Obs initiative also gives some guidelines

## Discussion group at first TIP meeting attempted to identify the most important observing systems for NWS Next and After Next 

- Discussion group at first TIP meeting attempted to identify the most important observing systems for NWS Next and After Next
**NWS Next (No internal ranking implied)**
- Dual Polarization Radar
- Improved water vapor measurements, esp in PBL (WVSS)
- ARGO Floats (sub-surface – global coverage)
- NPOESS Preparatory Project, GIFTS
- Stable Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) – has benefits for weather monitoring
- Adaptive observations (situational)

## Priorities (continued)

**NWS After Next (no internal ranking implied)**
- Phased Array Radar
- Time Series Observatories: fixed ocean platforms
- Integrated Global Ocean Observing System
-       - real time, all the time
-       - surface temperature, relative humidity, pressure, wind
-       - tropospheric wind profiles
-       - high resolution / all-weather SST
-       - salinity
- Integrated global observing strategy
- Time series observations for regional land/coastal zones**	**

## Vision for Meso-Obs Initiative

**Vision for Meso-Obs Initiative**

***Create a significant jump in the information content of the mesoscale observational data base and fully exploit this information for the improvement of forecasts of high impact weather events***

## Unmet Need For Observations

- Tropopause **(25~40 k ft)**
- Jet Stream
- Mid Troposphere **(5~25 k ft)**
- Location/intensity of short wave
- PBL **(Sfc~5 k ft)**
- Ageostrophic
- Orographic
- Temp, Moisture, Wind, Pressure, Precipitation
- Surface/sub-surface conditions

**PBL has largest unmet **
**need for observations**

**Critical to get forcing **
**correct in PBL, and **
**short waves in troposphere**

- Water Vapor is Critical

- Water Vapor is Critical

**High Impact Weather Events**

## Pilot Projects along the West Coast and in the Southern Plains

- West Coast and Southern Plains are two areas with many declared disasters.
- Pre-existing Pilot Projects with high level of instrumentation
- CALJET, et. Al.,
- Texas and Oklahoma Meso-nets
- Significant and direct impact on society
- Energy
- Crops
- People and property
- Highly visible state/national support

## Pilot projects as part of basic design strategy

- Phased/scalable implementation of new technology critical to manage risk and cost
- 	–   Observing systems and data processing
- 	–   Communications
- 	–   Data Assimilation (national and local)
- 	–   Technique and product development
- Utilizing Joint Mesoscale Test Bed and NCEP/EMC for early incorporation of new obs into NWP models

**Strategy to achieve effective network of diverse mesoscale observations**

## Scientific and technical challenges to overcome

- 	Moderate-bandwidth, two-way communications with in-situ systems
- 	Miniaturization of sensing systems
- 	Remote sensing of the interior of clouds
- 	Power generation and management for observing platforms
- 	Survivable ocean sensors
- 	Measurement of aerosols: concentrations and chemistry

## Other comments or concerns regarding observations

- 	Implementation / demonstration (pilot) projects
- 	-  starting in small regions and expanding deliberately
- 	-  dealing with experimental data of opportunity, especially
-         non-NOAA sources
- 	Integration
- 	-  observing systems considered holistically
- 	-  capability to interact with obs from different sources
- 	Designer Networks (tailored to regional phenomena and regional needs)
- 	Partnerships designed to promote open exchange of observations and software
-    	-  federal-state-local governments and universities
- 	-  public-private sectors
-  	-  international agreements