# Presentation: 281247

## Current Employment Statistics: New Hours and Earnings SeriesBEA Data Users ConferenceApril 13, 2007Pat Getz, BLS

**Bureau of Labor Statistics**

## Background
The BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) program historically has published average hours and earnings series for production workers in the goods-producing industries, and nonsupervisory workers in the service-providing industries
CES also publishes state and metropolitan area hours and earnings series, but publication is limited almost exclusively to manufacturing industries

- The BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) program historically has published average hours and earnings series for production workers in the goods-producing industries, and nonsupervisory workers in the service-providing industries
- CES also publishes state and metropolitan area hours and earnings series, but publication is limited almost exclusively to manufacturing industries

## Background
Production and nonsupervisory workers represent about 80 percent of nonfarm wage and salary employees and provide an incomplete picture of average hours and earnings
BLS tested collection of all employee hours and earnings data with CES respondents and found the data readily available from payroll records of most employers

- Production and nonsupervisory workers represent about 80 percent of nonfarm wage and salary employees and provide an incomplete picture of average hours and earnings
- BLS tested collection of all employee hours and earnings data with CES respondents and found the data readily available from payroll records of most employers

## Reasons for new series
CES constantly strives to improve its relevance to the needs of data users 
New all employee definition will provide more comprehensive information than the present series for analyzing economic trends
New data will provide improved input for other major economic indicators
productivity 
personal income

- CES constantly strives to improve its relevance to the needs of data users
- New all employee definition will provide more comprehensive information than the present series for analyzing economic trends
- New data will provide improved input for other major economic indicators
- productivity
- personal income

## Reasons for new series-continued
Current concept of ‘production workers’ (PW) has been difficult for sample members and users to comprehend
The PW concept is inconsistent across industries (production, nonsupervisory, construction)
Sample for PW data has degraded over time
individual employers record keeping often does not allow identification of production and nonsupervisory workers as defined by CES
Many employers use payroll processing firms or pre-packaged payroll software; production and nonsupervisory identification generally not available

- Current concept of ‘production workers’ (PW) has been difficult for sample members and users to comprehend
- The PW concept is inconsistent across industries (production, nonsupervisory, construction)
- Sample for PW data has degraded over time
- individual employers record keeping often does not allow identification of production and nonsupervisory workers as defined by CES
- Many employers use payroll processing firms or pre-packaged payroll software; production and nonsupervisory identification generally not available

## New series begin publication in April 2007
Experimental all employees series of average weekly hours (AWH), average hourly earnings (AHE), average overtime hours in manufacturing (AOT), and gross monthly earnings (GME) at the National level
Average hours and earnings series for production workers and for all employees are designed to measure the regular earnings for workers 
They EXCLUDE bonuses and other irregular payments received by employees from their employers
Regular hours and earnings are reported for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month
For both all-employee and production-worker series

- Experimental all employees series of average weekly hours (AWH), average hourly earnings (AHE), average overtime hours in manufacturing (AOT), and gross monthly earnings (GME) at the National level
- Average hours and earnings series for production workers and for all employees are designed to measure the regular earnings for workers
- They EXCLUDE bonuses and other irregular payments received by employees from their employers
- Regular hours and earnings are reported for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month
- For both all-employee and production-worker series

## New series
The GME series INCLUDES irregular payments, providing an additional and more comprehensive measure of earnings for the whole month
This series is expected to improve the accuracy of preliminary estimates of personal income in the national income accounts
GME will be published with a one-month lag as compared with all other CES series.  For example January GME estimates will be published in March.

- The GME series INCLUDES irregular payments, providing an additional and more comprehensive measure of earnings for the whole month
- This series is expected to improve the accuracy of preliminary estimates of personal income in the national income accounts
- GME will be published with a one-month lag as compared with all other CES series.  For example January GME estimates will be published in March.

## New series
The gross monthly earnings series are not strictly comparable with other earnings series:
  			          GME                           AE-AHE                           PW-AHE
Measurement:	comprehensive:	regular earnings	  regular earnings	
			regular plus irregular	
			       earnings

Published:	   1-month lag	same month   	  same month					as employment	  as employment
					(3rd closing)

Calendar	                                         pay period that                    pay period that
representation:         entire month	includes the 12th                  includes the 12th

Estimate
Coverage:	   100 % all nonfarm	 100 % all nonfarm          	    PW jobs~
			   wage and salary jobs	 wage and salary jobs             80 % 	      

- The gross monthly earnings series are not strictly comparable with other earnings series:
-   			          _GME_                           _AE-AHE_                           _PW-AHE_
- Measurement:	comprehensive:	regular earnings	  regular earnings
- 			regular plus irregular
- 			       earnings
- Published:	   1-month lag	same month   	  same month					as employment	  as employment
- 					(3rd closing)
- Calendar	                                         pay period that                    pay period that
- representation:         entire month	includes the 12th                  includes the 12th
- Estimate
- Coverage:	   100 % all nonfarm	 100 % all nonfarm          	    PW jobs~
- 			   wage and salary jobs	 wage and salary jobs             80 %

## New series
The hours series are strictly comparable with other hours series:
  			          AE-AWH              AE-OT                  PW-AHE                   PW-OT
Measurement:	Total hours paid         Total hours overtime  Total hours paid         Total hours overtime
			 including overtime    pay was received        including overtime     pay was received 				
Published:	 same month               same month 	        same month              same month 		 as employment*        as employment*        as employment*       as employment*

Calendar 	pay period that            pay period that         pay period that 	pay period that 
representation: 	includes the 12th          includes the 12th        includes the 12th            includes the 12th 

Estimate
Coverage:             100 % all Private    100 % Manufacturing    PW jobs~       Manufacturing PW  		Nonfarm wage   	 	             80 % 	
                               and salary jobs

*1st, 2nd or 3rd closing depending upon industry detail    

- The hours series are strictly comparable with other hours series:
-   			          _AE-AWH_              _AE-OT_                  _PW-AHE _                  _PW-OT_
- Measurement:	Total hours paid         Total hours overtime  Total hours paid         Total hours overtime
- 			 including overtime    pay was received        including overtime     pay was received
- Published:	 same month               same month 	        same month              same month 		 as employment*        as employment*        as employment*       as employment*
- Calendar 	pay period that            pay period that         pay period that 	pay period that
- representation: 	includes the 12th          includes the 12th        includes the 12th            includes the 12th
- Estimate
- Coverage:             100 % all Private    100 % Manufacturing    PW jobs~       Manufacturing PW  		Nonfarm wage   	 	             80 %
-                                and salary jobs
- *1st, 2nd or 3rd closing depending upon industry detail

## Expectations for AE earnings and GME series:
AHE for All workers would generally be higher than for production workers (due to inclusion of supervisory earnings)
GME would be equal to or higher than All-employee aggregate payrolls (due to possible inclusion of bonuses, irregular payments, to timing, etc.)

- AHE for All workers would generally be higher than for production workers (due to inclusion of supervisory earnings)
- GME would be equal to or higher than All-employee aggregate payrolls (due to possible inclusion of bonuses, irregular payments, to timing, etc.)

## AEPP data collection began in September 2005
New forms mailed out in August/September 2005 and again in January 2006
Adding new data items made form more complicated and increased respondent burden

- New forms mailed out in August/September 2005 and again in January 2006
- Adding new data items made form more complicated and increased respondent burden

## AEPP data collection
First month data collection was hindered by hurricanes Rita and Katrina occurring in the same month (September 2005)
AE payroll response is currently somewhat higher than response of PW payroll
If firms were providing PW payroll, then almost all added AE payroll
Some firms which did not provide PW payroll now report AE payroll
GME response runs lower that AE payroll in general

- First month data collection was hindered by hurricanes Rita and Katrina occurring in the same month (September 2005)
- AE payroll response is currently somewhat higher than response of PW payroll
- If firms were providing PW payroll, then almost all added AE payroll
- Some firms which did not provide PW payroll now report AE payroll
- GME response runs lower that AE payroll in general

## AE Collection Rates: 1st and 3rd ClosingsJanuary 2003 to Present

- AE Collection Rates: 1st and 3rd ClosingsJanuary 2003 to Present

## CES Data Item Response Rates, 3-month, final sample average

- CES Data Item Response Rates, 3-month, final sample average

## AEPP data collection-continued
Rotation of new sample units into sample (~20 percent each year) improves AEPP response as new units have higher item response
Meanwhile, BLS will continue to:
Explain new data items to respondents
Selectively re-contact key reporters

- Rotation of new sample units into sample (~20 percent each year) improves AEPP response as new units have higher item response
- Meanwhile, BLS will continue to:
- Explain new data items to respondents
- Selectively re-contact key reporters

## GME estimators
CES is testing 2 estimators for calculating GME
Both National and State GME estimates are being tested using the estimators
CES will make a final decision prior to releasing the official series

- CES is testing 2 estimators for calculating GME
- Both National and State GME estimates are being tested using the estimators
- CES will make a final decision prior to releasing the official series

## GME estimators
Weighted Difference Link and Taper (LT) Estimator
Similar to the estimator currently used for all hours and earnings series

Ratio Estimator (R1)
Similar to the weighted link relative estimator for all employees

- Weighted Difference Link and Taper (LT) Estimator
- Similar to the estimator currently used for all hours and earnings series
- Ratio Estimator (R1)
- Similar to the weighted link relative estimator for all employees

## Phase 1: Experimental 

Limited data available online in text format only
Potential for methodology changes
Continued research and evaluation of estimators
Continued effort to improve sample response and to reduce response error
Solicitation of user comments

- Limited data available online in text format only
- Potential for methodology changes
- Continued research and evaluation of estimators
- Continued effort to improve sample response and to reduce response error
- Solicitation of user comments

_**Phase 2: Official**_
- Full release of published estimates with more industry detail
- Inclusion in Employment Situation, Commissioners Statement, State and Area releases, and available on LABSTAT
- Publication of seasonally adjusted data
- Completed documentation available to users

- Publication timeline
- The publication timeline has been divided into 2 phases:  Experimental and Official

## National publication timeline	
Experimental series released with January 2007 estimates in April 2007.  Series start date is March 2006
Official series with January 2010 estimates in February 2010; will include seasonally adjusted data

_**Experimental**_ series released with January 2007 estimates in April 2007.  Series start date is March 2006
_**Official**_ series with January 2010 estimates in February 2010; will include seasonally adjusted data

## State and Area publication timeline	
Experimental series released in March 2008 with January benchmarked data
Official series released in 2010 
Start date dependent upon sufficient sample and non-disclosure review
Series start date will begin no earlier than January 2007

_**Experimental**_ series released in March 2008 with January benchmarked data
_**Official**_ series released in 2010
- Start date dependent upon sufficient sample and non-disclosure review
- Series start date will begin no earlier than January 2007

## National level publication detail	
Experimental—Total private and expanded supersector detail 
Official—Similar to series published for PW hours and earnings
Initial release—hours for all 3-digit industries in Manufacturing and 2-digits in all other industries; earnings for all 2-digits and higher
Second release—same as initial release plus all series that pass non-disclosure rules

- Experimental—Total private and expanded supersector detail
- Official—Similar to series published for PW hours and earnings
- Initial release—hours for all 3-digit industries in Manufacturing and 2-digits in all other industries; earnings for all 2-digits and higher
- Second release—same as initial release plus all series that pass non-disclosure rules

##  State and Area level publication detail	
Experimental—
Statewide—Total private and supersector detail for hours and earnings series; gross earnings for total private 
MSA—Total private detail for hours and earnings; no gross earnings
Official—same as experimental with possible additional industry detail, depending on sample adequacy in individual States and MSAs

- Experimental—
- Statewide—Total private and supersector detail for hours and earnings series; gross earnings for total private
- MSA—Total private detail for hours and earnings; no gross earnings
- Official—same as experimental with possible additional industry detail, depending on sample adequacy in individual States and MSAs

- The CES all employee hours and earnings experimental series are now available on the BLS website at:
-      _[http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesaepp.htm](http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesaepp.htm)_
- BLS welcomes users review and feedback on these series