# Presentation: 454431

## Updates Since Fall 2004

**Nancy Kirkendall**
**Director, Statistics and Methods Group**
**April 28, 2005**

## Topics Presented Fall 2004On Current Agenda

**Short Term Energy Outlook**
**The focus of much of today**
**Assessing EIA Frames **
**EIA Team Results**
**More on Census comparisons**

**Notes:**
Regionalization of the STEO has been a big new effort for EIA, and this discussion will solicit your input on a variety of issues related to the new STEO.  You will hear from Margot Anderson, the new director of the Office of Energy Markets and End Use, Phillip Tseng and Dave Costello (who discussed the work on regional electricity modeling at the last meeting), and Tanc Lidderdale (who will discuss the remaining regional models.)

We discussed EIA frames at least the last two meetings of the committee, and this is another update.  One of the frames team – charged with assessing the quality of EIA frames—has completed its work.  Howard Bradsher-Fredrick will be reporting on the results of the frames assessment activity.  He will also discuss the activities of the new frames team.  In addition, Rick Hough of the Bureau of the Census will present the results of comparisons with Census frames.  
Estimation of Natural Gas Production has been on the ASA Agenda for years.  This time, we are pleased to report that the EIA-914 is in the field and the first data (for January 2005) are almost ready to be published.  You will be receiving an update on the survey, and we will ask for your advice on when the initial data should be released, and when it should become EIA’s official monthly data.
We will be bringing you an update on our estimation procedures for the EIA-826, which is our Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenue Report with State Distributions.
At the last meeting we had several lively discussions about external evaluations.  This (relatively short) session will cover our progress on external evaluation of a survey program (Brenda Cox), and external evaluation of EIA’s overall information program (are we doing the right things?).  Finally we will begin discussion on how to merge these two thoughts into a useful ongoing approach of external evaluation.

We will be bringing you an update on our estimation procedures for the EIA-826, which is our Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenue Report with State Distributions.

At the last meeting we had several lively discussions about external evaluations.  This (relatively short) session will cover our progress on external evaluation of a survey program (Brenda Cox), and external evaluation of EIA’s overall information program (are we doing the right things).  Finally we will begin discussion how to merge these two thoughts into a useful ongoing approach of external evaluation.

## Natural Gas Production – the EIA-914
Progress on new survey

EIA-826 – alternatives in estimation

External Evaluations
Panel discussion on Friday

**Progress on new survey**
**EIA-826 – alternatives in estimation**
**External Evaluations**
**Panel discussion on Friday**

**Topics Presented Fall 2004****On Current Agenda**

## New Topics

**Usability Testing of Website Design**
**Addressing Declining Response Rates (Residential Energy Consumption Survey)**

**Notes:**
Colleen blessing will be asking you to participate in testing EIA’s current website redesign.  This will be conducted twice so that all committee members can participate.
Dwight French will describe some of the efforts EMEU is undertaking to improve response rates in RECS.  It may be that a number of the things they are looking at (other than incentives) will also be applicable to other EIA surveys.

## Topics Presented Fall 2004, Potential for Fall 2005

**Post-Stratification for Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) **
**Evaluating Impact of Improvements to Form EIA-920**
**Editing for Form EIA-906**
**Customer evaluations of EIA’s Forecasting and Analysis Products**

**Notes:**
These are topics from the fall meeting in 2004 that may be on the agenda for the fall meeting in 2005.  We hope that our Census colleagues will be able to discuss the post-stratification for the MECS, and the evaluations of the two larger EIA frames, the EIA-860 combined heat and power plants, and the EIA-3, Quarterly Coal Consumption and Quality Report, Manufacturing Plants .
In prior years we did site visits and cognitive interviewing for the EIA-920 survey of combined heat and power plants, and redesigned the form.  Now we want to know how well the changes worked.  With luck this should be an interesting session in the fall.  A team has a paper documenting all the previous work, along with the work they have done to date that they are presenting at AAPOR.  
Last time we presented our work to date on editing for the EIA-906.  This project has been on hold while we complete our internal survey evaluations.  We hope to provide more information in the fall.
Finally our Strategic Plan requires that we conduct periodic customer evaluations of our forecasting and analytic products.  We reported on the AEO and IEO last spring, and on the STEO in the fall.  We are currently redoing the AEO survey based on a sample of customers from the listserve.  In the future we will need to discuss which additional “analytic” products to fold into this assessment process so that we can achieve a sensible rotating evaluation of EIA’s analytic and forecasting products overall. 

## Other Updates

**Methods for Assessing NEMS Solution Data for Interpretive and Diagnostic Purposes**
**Dual System Estimation – a paper to be presented at the FCSM Research Conference**
**Developing the Natural Gas Production Survey – topic contributed paper session at JSM**

**Notes:**
George lady will continue his work on developing diagnostic tools.

Howard Bradsher-Fredrick is presenting a paper for the FCSM Research Conference that will discuss all applications of Dual System Estimation we can come up with in EIA.
Finally, in August we have a topic contributed paper session that describes many of the things we have discussed with you over the last few meetings.  There will be a paper by kara norman laying out the background, and discussing the dynamic nature of the frame.  There will be a paper by Inder Kundra and Joe Sedransk on alternative sampling methods.  There will be a paper by Preston McDowney with the simulation results (including the Hyack estimator), and a paper by John Wood describing the estimation methodology, and how the survey is working in practice.  The discussant will be Roy Whitmore, RTI (former committee member).