# Presentation: 374273

## Some Energy Facts ...

***Some Energy Facts ...***
***... ******and their implications for R&D needed to assure a secure energy future***
***OSTP Series***
***Hot Topics in Science and Technology***
***Nanotechnology:  Energizing Our Future***
***Patricia M. Dehmer***
***Director, Office of Basic Energy Sciences***
***Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy***
***10 August 2005***

***BASIC ENERGY SCIENCES – ******Serving the Present, Shaping the Future******http://www.science.doe.gov/bes***

## Contents

***Energy consumption today and through the 21******st****** century***
***Energy flow diagrams for the U.S.***
***Energy reserves***
***Renewable energy today with speculations on the future***
***Energy and the environment***
***A summary “boxology” of energy R&D areas***
***Why nanoscience and nanotechnology?***

- Notes are provided in the blue boxes.

**References are given in the corner**

## U.S. and World Energy Consumption Today

- _Some equivalent ways of referring to the energy used by the U.S. in 1 year (approx. 100 Quads)_
- 100.0 quadrillion British Thermal Units (Quads)	U.S. & British unit of energy
- 105.5 exa Joules (EJ)	Metric unit of energy
- 3.346 terawatt-years (TW-yr)	Metric unit of power (energy/sec)x(#seconds in a year)

**412 Quads**

**98 Quads**

## Projected World Energy Consumption in the Coming Century

- Projections to 2025 are from the Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 2004.
- Projections for 2050 and 2100 are based on a scenario from the  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an organization jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme.  The IPCC provides comprehensive assessments of information relevant to human-induced climate change.  The scenario chosen is based on “moderate” assumptions (Scenario B2) for population and economic growth and hence is neither overly conservative nor overly aggressive.

## Projected World Energy Consumption by Region

**World Energy Consumption by Region (Quads)**

- Overall, world energy consumption is predicted to increase faster than that of the U.S. and other industrialized countries, because between 2000 and 2025 energy demand in the developing countries nearly doubles.

**World Regions**

## Projected U.S. Energy Consumption in the Coming Century

***Projected U.S. Energy Consumption in the Coming Century***

***Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of GDP***

##  U.S. Energy Flow, 2003  (Quads)

- About 30% of primary energy is imported.

- Energy Sources

- Energy Consumption Sectors

##  U.S. Energy Flow, 2003  (Quads)

- 85% of primary energy is from fossil fuels; 8% is from nuclear; 6% is from renewables.
- Most imported energy is petroleum, which is used for transportation.
- The end-use sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation) all use comparable amounts of energy.

##  U.S. Energy Flow, 2002  (Quads)

*** ******U.S. Energy Flow, 2002  (Quads)***

- 39% of primary energy goes toward electricity generation; 69% of that is lost energy.
- 80% of energy used in the transportation sector is lost energy.
- Overall, 58% of primary energy is lost energy.

## Fossil Fuel Reserves-to-Production (R/P) Ratios at End 2004

- The world’s R/P ratio for coal is almost five times that for oil and almost three times that for gas.  Coal’s dominance in R/P ratio is particularly pronounced in the OECD and the FSU.
- R/P ratios for oil and gas have been approximately constant or slightly increasing during the past 20 years.  Both reserves and production have increased during this period.  See next chart.

- 600

- 500

- 400

- 300

- 200

- 100

- 0

- YEARS

- OECD

- FSU

- Emerging Market Economies,
- excluding FSU

- World

**BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005**

## Reserves-to-Production (R/P) Ratios at End 2004

**Oil**

**Natural Gas**

**BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005**

## 36 Estimates of the Time of the Peak of World Oil Production (There are More)

***36 Estimates of the Time of the Peak of World Oil Production (There are More)***

- EIA’s short answer to “When will oil production peak?” is “Not soon, but within the present century.”  The most probable scenarios put the peak at about mid century.

## Renewable Energy Consumption by Major Sources

## How do the Earth's land, water, air, and life interact to affect the environment?

- Image Source: NASA, Earth Science Enterprise,* Understanding Our Changing Planet*URL:  http://departments.weber.edu/sciencecenter/nasa/lithographs/lit26.jpg

***This Earth image is a compilation of data from several different satellites that remotely sense vegetation, clouds, fires, and aerosols.***

***How do the Earth's land, water, air, and life interact to affect the environment?***

## Planets, Atmospheres, and Climate

***Planets, Atmospheres, and Climate***

- = -58oF

- = 59oF

- = 788 oF

- Sun

- A planet's climate is determined by its mass, its distance from the sun, and the composition of its atmosphere.  Earth's atmosphere is 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases. Carbon dioxide accounts for 0.03 - 0.04%. Water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other minor gases absorb thermal radiation leaving the surface. These greenhouse gases act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface and enable it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be. Without the greenhouse gases, Earth's average temperature would be roughly -20°C = -4 °F.

**Notes:**
A planet's climate is decided by its mass, its distance from the sun, and the composition of its atmosphere. Mars is too small to keep a thick atmosphere. Its atmosphere consists mainly of carbon dioxide, but the atmosphere is very thin. The atmosphere of the Earth is a hundred times thicker. Most of Mars' carbon dioxide is frozen in the ground. Mars' average surface temperature is about -50°C. Venus has almost the same mass as Earth but a thicker atmosphere, composed of 96% carbon dioxide. The surface temperature on Venus is +460°C. Earth's atmosphere is 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases. Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0.03 - 0.04%. Water vapor, varying in amount from 0 to 2%, carbon dioxide and some other minor gases present in the atmosphere absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the surface and emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out to space. These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse gases because they act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface and enable it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse. This blanketing is known as the natural greenhouse effect. Without the greenhouse gases, Earth's average temperature would be roughly -20°C = -4 F.

## The Greenhouse Effect

***The Greenhouse Effect***

- Human actions – burning fossil fuels and land clearing – are increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases.  This is known as the enhanced greenhouse effect.  Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone.  Greenhouse gases that are not naturally occurring include hydro-fluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), which are generated in a variety of industrial processes.

## The Earth’s Carbon Cycle

**Storage in Gt C**
**Fluxes in Gt C/year**
**1 Gton = 10****9**** tons**

**Gigatons (Gt) Carbon (C) **

## CO2 Concentrations and Temperature Change 

***CO******2****** Concentrations and Temperature Change ***

**Notes:**
Through the study of ancient ice cores from Antarctica it is possible to compare atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere with temperature variations over the past 400,000 years.   A visual comparison indicates a very tight connection between their performance.  But with the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s, CO2 concentrations begin to rise from 280 ppmv (parts per million by volume) in the early 1800s to a current level of 376 ppmv, 77 ppmv above the highest concentrations previously attained. 

## Past and Future CO2 Atmospheric Concentrations for Various IPCC Scenarios

- Since pre-industrial times, the concentration of greenhouse gases has increased significantly. The CO2 concentration has increased by ~31%, methane concentration by ~150%, and nitrous oxide concentration by ~16%. The present level of carbon dioxide concentration (~375 parts per million) is the highest for 420,000 years and probably the highest for the past 20 million years.
- The various IPCC scenarios all show CO2 concentrations continuing to increase during the 21st century.  Even the most extreme scenario, which assumes that total primary energy use in 2100 is only slightly greater than that today (rather than a factor of 3 higher than that today in the more moderate B2 scenario), shows a CO2 concentration of about 550 parts per million, twice that of pre-industrial times.  Other IPCC scenarios show CO2 concentrations increasing to nearly 1,000 parts per million.

## Climate Models, CO2 Concentrations, and Temperature Change for Past Data

***Climate Models, CO******2****** Concentrations, and Temperature Change for Past Data***

- Recorded global temperature change can be compared with computer models that predict temperature change under different "forcing" scenarios, (with "forcings" signifying external influences on the solar radiative budget of the planet - greenhouse gases, aerosols, increased solar radiation, and other agents). The charts compare observed temperature anomalies from the historic mean (red line) with the results of computer models that attempt to predict temperature based on the interactions of other environmental influences (gray line).
- The top two charts illustrate that models using natural and anthropogenic influences alone [Natural causes & Man-made causes] fail to match the observed record of temperature anomalies since 1866. But the combination of natural and anthropogenic models [Natural and man-made causes] produces a close match to the measured data. This is seen as a clear "thumbprint" of human impacts on climate change.
- Based on results such as these, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2001 report stated that "concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and their radiative forcing have continued to increase as a result of human activities."

## Research for a Secure Energy Future

**Carbon Energy Sources**

**Coal**

**Petroleum**

**Natural Gas**

**Oil shale, tar sands, hydrates,... **

**Research for a Secure Energy Future**
**Supply, Distribution, Consumption, and Carbon Management,**

**No-net-carbon Energy Sources**

**Nuclear Fission**

**Nuclear Fusion**

**Carbon Management**

**CO****2**** Sequestration **

**Carbon Recycle**

**Geologic**

**Terrestrial**

**Oceanic**

**Global Climate Change Science**

**Energy Consumption**

**Transportation **

**Buildings **

**Industry**

**Distribution/Storage**

**Electric Grid **

**Electric Storage**

**Energy Conservation, Energy Efficiency, and Environmental Stewardship**

**Decision Science and Complex Systems Science**

***BASIC ENERGY SCIENCES  ***

** ****Hydrogen**

## Nanoscience Research for Energy Needs

- The workshop identified nine key areas of energy technology in which nanoscience is expected to have a substantial impact:
- Scalable methods to split water with sunlight for hydrogen production
- Reversible hydrogen storage materials operating at ambient temperatures
- Harvesting of solar energy with 20 percent power efficiency and 100 times lower cost
- Solid-state lighting at 50 percent of the present power consumption
- Highly selective catalysts for clean and energy-efficient manufacturing
- Super-strong light-weight materials to improve efficiency of cars, airplanes, etc.
- Power transmission lines capable of 1 gigawatt transmission
- Low-cost fuel cells, batteries, thermoelectrics, and ultra-capacitors built from nanostructured materials
- Materials synthesis and energy harvesting based on the efficient and selective mechanisms of biology
- The strategy for achieving these targets lies in growing R&D efforts in six areas:
- Catalysis by nanoscale materials
- Using interfaces to manipulate energy carriers
- Linking structure and function at the nanoscale
- Assembly and architecture of nanoscale structures
- Theory, modeling, and simulation for energy nanoscience
- Scalable synthesis methods

- “All the elementary steps of energy conversion (charge transfer, molecular rearrangement, chemical reactions, etc.) take place on the nanoscale. Thus, the development of new nanoscale materials, as well as the methods to characterize, manipulate and assemble them, creates an entirely new paradigm for developing new and revolutionary energy technologies.”

## A Series of Workshops to Understand Basic Research Needs for Energy

***A Series of Workshops to Understand Basic Research Needs for Energy***

**Basic Research Needs to Assure a Secure Energy Future**
**Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee Workshop**
**October 21-25, 2002**
***The foundation workshop that set the model for the focused workshops that follow.***

**Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen Economy**
**Basic Energy Sciences Workshop**
**May 13-15, 2003**
***Led to BES solicitation in FY 2005 that awarded $21M in new funding as part of the President’s Hydrogen Fuel Initiative.***

**Basic Research Needs for Solar Energy Utilization**
**Basic Energy Sciences Workshop**
**April 18-21, 2005**
***Heavily attended workshop (>200) with very enthusiastic participation in breakout sessions.  Report published in July 2005.***

- Each focused workshop seeks to define the basic research needed to overcome both short-term technology showstoppers and long-term scientific grand challenges.
- Future workshops will examine basic research needs for advanced nuclear reactors including advanced fuel cycles, solid-state lighting, superconductivity, and more.

## ADDITIONAL REFERENCE MATERIALS

**ADDITIONAL REFERENCE MATERIALS**

## Prefixes and Names for Large and Small Numbers

## Some Useful Conversion Factors

***Some Useful Conversion Factors***

**BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005**

- 1 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus)
-     = 1 Quad  = 1.055 exa Joules (EJ)
-     = 0.03346 terawatt-year (TW-year)

## Projected World Energy Consumption in the Coming Century

## IPCC Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Modeling

## About the Speaker