# Presentation: 314935

## The Role of Science and Technology in Counter Terrorism

***Jay Davis***
***National Security Fellow***
***Center for Global Security Research ***
***Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory***
***DOE/OBES Workshop***
***Gaithersburg, February 28, 2002***

## My perspective on counter terrorism comes from career experiences

**Having my own laboratory bombed when I was at Wisconsin**
**A basic research career in nuclear physics and in managing basic research in the broad geosciences, toxicology, nutritional science and combustion research**
**Applied experiences in arms control, the NEST program and as an inspector in Iraq**
**Three years as the founding director of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a DoD combat support agency with counter terrorism as a major focus**
**Thirty years as an organization builder and strategic planner**

## Let me begin with the dilemmas of counter terrorism

**There is no central ownership of this mission and it is almost no one’s first mission**
**The technological and the sociological quickly become combined**
**One is seeking resources to invest against rare events with high consequences**
**The ultimate customer is not one having great familiarity with the S&T community**

## What is the narrow role of science and technology in national security?

**To assure that we have the weapons and knowledge to deter those with evil intent**
**To assure that if war, terrorism or conflict come, our doctrine, people and equipment are superior to any**
**To assure that we fight **_**our**_** battle, preferably one that the enemy does not expect, rather than **_**their**_** battle **

**Note that the social sciences play a large role in these desires**

## What is the broad role of science and technology in national security?

**To assure that we can anticipate and cope with surprise in any discipline**
**To assure that the American economy can compete on all levels and support the world’s best defense system**
**in both people and equipment**
**To explain honestly what is and is not possible in defense.**

**Basic scientists have a large role in these matters**

## How does DoD look at solving a problem?

**Is there a solution in doctrine, operations or in technology?**
**Who will provide the logistics and training support for a twenty year system lifetime?**
**How is the system, gadget or widget compatible with existing doctrine, operations or training?**
**Can I get promoted if I sponsor this?**

## Where in counter terrorism do S&T have the most leverage?

**Deterrence**
**Detection**
**Response**
**Recovery**
**Forensics and Attribution**

**Note that the first and last couple together -- and may offer our highest and most cost effective opportunities**

## What are the strengths of the basic S&T community?

**Knowledge of the future of your fields**
**particularly important in the “post-nuclear” and “post-physics” world**
**Potentially higher credibility with the new funders and the general public**
**Potentially lower operational burdens than the rules and inhibitions of the national security organizations that handle classified and/or controlled materials**
**Cost, cost, cost**

## What are the grand technical challenges in counter terrorism?

**Forensics for attribution and deterrence**
**Technologies for detection of agents and rapid diagnosis of infection or insult**
**Integration of sparse and uncertain data into predictive models for event management**
**this has enormous political importance**
**Integrated models that span dispersion to morbidity and mortality**
**for both low level and acute exposure**
**for “address-based” triage**
**Education on risk and risk tradeoff**

## What are the critical tests of you and your ideas?

**Can you work as a subcontractor?**
**Anything important will be a team activity -- you are an unlikely leader**
**Who will deliver and sustain your technology in production and operation?**
**A real government agency contribution could be to select the production operational contractors**
**Does this product deliver incremental improvement in existing systems without excessive opportunity cost in their present configuration?**
**Is the first responder willing to use this?**

## What are the grand contributions you can make?

**Service in a mission-driven agency**
**they need your perspectives and knowledge**
**Support to the intelligence and security communities in predicting future threats**
**and the capabilities to counter them**
**Work in the international communities to establish norms of transparency and ethics**
**and the penalties for failure in these**
**Education and support of both the local and national communities in determining what is possible**
**expectations management is vital**

## You might ask yourself the following questions

**What new contexts do I need to master?**
**Where or by what extrapolation does my currently funded work or capability contribute?**
**What new relationships do I need?**
**What are my responsibilities beyond the laboratory?**

## Understand the political and operational difficulties of counter terrorism

**This is no one’s first job -- except for Governor Ridge**
**Authority and resource needs are determined by the event**
**an anathema for political systems**
**The first responders are the most important players**
**and are poorly coupled to our communities**
**There will be no silver bullets**
**either technical or political**

**However, I am optimistic because we as a nation are now fully engaged with this topic**