# Presentation: 113858

## Tropical Storm Hanna

**1100L 05 Sept 2008**
**Regis Walter**
**NOAA Meteorologist**

## Estimated arrival time of TS force winds:

**Estimated arrival time of TS force winds:**
**Central SC Coast:  1400 EDT today**
**Southern NC Coast:  1600 EDT Today**
**Landfall:  0300 EDT Saturday, Sept. 6**
**36 miles ENE of Charleston, SC or**
**25 miles S of Georgetown, SC**

## Current Satellite Image

**Current Satellite Image**

**Center TS Hanna**

## 3 Day Total RainfallEnding Monday Morning, Sept. 8

**6+ Inches**

**7+ Inches**

## NWS RadarMelbourne, FL

**Center TS Hanna**

## CENTER OF HANNA OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDAWARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD 

**AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9 NORTH 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. **
**HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. **
**MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL... ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR HANNA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. **
**TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES FROM THE CENTER. **
**ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.**

## Watches and Warnings

**T 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY....THE TIDAL POTOMAC... WASHINGTON D.C...AND DELAWARE BAY. **
**A TROPICAL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...INCLUDING ALL OF CHESAPEAKE BAY....THE TIDAL POTOMAC... WASHINGTON D.C...AND DELAWARE BAY. **
**A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. **
**THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. **
**AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND... INCLUDING LONG ISLAND. **

## Rainfall and Ocean Swells

**COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF HANNA.**
**HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINA...MARYLAND...AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. **
**ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND COASTAL GEORGIA. **
**THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HANNA ADVANCES NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.**** **
**RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE. **
**ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA.**

## Technical Discussion

**SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AS THE LATEST CONVECTIVE BURST HAS PRODUCED AN INNER WIND CORE. HOWEVER...THE RADAR-OBSERVED VELOCITIES DO NOT YET SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. **
**THE CENTER OF HANNA JOGGED WESTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z. HOWEVER...THE MELBOURNE RADAR SUGGEST THE CENTER HAS RESUMED A MORE NORTHWARD MOTIONS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 325/17. HANNA IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION. **
**ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 36 HR TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER.**

## Technical Discussion Cont.

**WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL ISSUES...THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT NEAR LANDFALL. **
**NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HANNA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR. **
**THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS.**