# Presentation: 949200

## JIM CARROLL

- FUTURIST, TRENDS AND INNOVATION EXPERT

## The Walt Disney Company
DaimlerChrysler
Swiss Innovation Forum
University of Oklahoma
CBS / Infinity Broadcasting
Motorola
Property and Casualty Insurance Association of America
Nestle
Verizon
British Broadcasting Corp
Sporting Good Manufacturing Association

**DaimlerChrysler**
**Swiss Innovation Forum**
**University of Oklahoma**
**CBS / Infinity Broadcasting**
**Motorola**
**Property and Casualty Insurance Association of America**
**Nestle**
**Verizon**
**British Broadcasting Corp**
**Sporting Good Manufacturing Association**

## American Agri-woman Society
Syngenta 
US Farm Credit Cooperative
Mid-America Crop Protection Association 
American Landscape and Nursery Association 
Crop Protection Association of Canada 
Monsanto

**Syngenta **
**US Farm Credit Cooperative**
**Mid-America Crop Protection Association **
**American Landscape and Nursery Association **
**Crop Protection Association of Canada **
**Monsanto**

## 65%

## half

## 6 months...

## Slide 8

## “Innovative organizations anticipate obvious future trends, and begin to shift fundamental assumptions and attitudes in order to achieve change”

- “Innovative organizations anticipate obvious future trends, and begin to shift fundamental assumptions and attitudes in order to achieve change”

## Short term trends with velocity (social networking, Web 2.0, etc....)
Massive, long term transformations

- Short term trends with velocity (social networking, Web 2.0, etc....)
- Massive, long term transformations

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## Velocity drives rapid (consumer / customer / business) change, increases their expectations, which requires faster innovation and a more agile organization

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## Slide 23

## rapid emergence of new technology
fundamental and huge skills challenges
rapidly changing market demand (globalization, ethanol shift, etc)
rapidly changing skills requirements
new business models and distribution models (direct to consumer)
rapid emergence of new  farming methodologies driven by science 

**fundamental and huge skills challenges**
**rapidly changing market demand (globalization, ethanol shift, etc)**
**rapidly changing skills requirements**
**new business models and distribution models (direct to consumer)**
**rapid emergence of new  farming methodologies driven by science **

## Slide 25

## UK Food and Agriculture Association estimates that the world population will increase 47%, to 8.9 billion, by 2050
Simple fact: global agriculture must double to sustain growth
reality: little new arable land
(all this, before ethanol took off!)

**UK Food and Agriculture Association estimates that the world population will increase 47%, to 8.9 billion, by 2050**
**Simple fact: global agriculture must double to sustain growth**
**reality: little new arable land**
**(all this, before ethanol took off!)**

## “Apathetic Minority”
not optimistic
tends to seek the “same old advice” from “same old sources”
intolerance for risk
not convinced they can continue to make a comfortable living
skeptical of potential (slammed about the head)
“...we need more subsidies...”

- not optimistic
- tends to seek the “same old advice” from “same old sources”
- intolerance for risk
- not convinced they can continue to make a comfortable living
- skeptical of potential (slammed about the head)
- “...we need more subsidies...”

_**“**__**Future positive”**_
- optimistic
- business minded
- innovation oriented
- collaborative for advice
- mix of ages – young, aggressive, and mature with focus
- often focused on planning, profit, growth (land!)
- willing to approach everything in a new way with new ideas

## What do innovative organizations do?

## Slide 30

**see things differently **
**spur creativity in other people **
**focus on opportunity, not threat **
**refuses to accept the status quo **
**the ability to bring ideas to life **
**has the skill to learn and unlearn **
**refuses to say the word "can't" **
**accepts challenges with passion and enthusiasm **
**embraces change rather than shying away from it **
**listens to people who are different then them **
**lives for the opportunity to have ideas challenged and debated **
**instead of saying "it won't work," asks the question, "how can we make it work? **

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## Slide 33

**“****run the business better”**
**“****grow the business”**
**“****transform the business”**

## Short term trends with velocity 
Massive, long term transformations
Obvious trends

- Short term trends with velocity
- Massive, long term transformations
- Obvious trends

## Slide 36

## “Progress is great, but it’s gone on far too long”- Ogden Nash

- “Progress is great, but it’s gone on far too long”- Ogden Nash

## Slide 38

## “....35% of sales staff had little confidence in their own ability to demonstrate hi-tech in-car equipment such as Bluetooth devices and voice control systems”

UK Birmingham Post, reporting on a Ford dealership training session

- “....35% of sales staff had little confidence in their own ability to demonstrate hi-tech in-car equipment such as Bluetooth devices and voice control systems”
- UK Birmingham Post, reporting on a Ford dealership training session

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## Half of the global population <25
Globally wired, entrepreneurial, collaborative, change oriented
Will drive rapid business model change, and industry transformation
Minimum level of interactive, firm-to-firm collaboration being put in place (“raised bar of expectations”)

- Half of the global population <25
- Globally wired, entrepreneurial, collaborative, change oriented
- Will drive rapid business model change, and industry transformation
- Minimum level of interactive, firm-to-firm collaboration being put in place (“raised bar of expectations”)

## Slide 47

## Change-adoption rate set to dramatically accelerate?
“Cross generational collaboration” is a critical new leadership requirement

- Change-adoption rate set to dramatically accelerate?
- “Cross generational collaboration” is a critical new leadership requirement

## Slide 49

## 2010 – 3
2012 – 4
2016 - 6

- 2012 – 4
- 2016 - 6

## 1/2

## 67%

- 2/3

## Traditionalists (before 1946: 61 years old and up)

- loyalty and dedication
- command/control leadership
- hierarchical organizations
- lifetime employment
- biggest challenge? “Can’t wait to get the hell out of here”

**Notes:**
Likely, many of you can relate to this as the way your parents viewed the world. 
In return for working hard 9 to 5 & being loyal to the company, they would get a decent wage, lifetime employment & a good pension.  
Many traditionalists view their careers as an opportunity to leave a legacy & contribute to something bigger than themselves.  
Helping their children through college, having the wife stay at home to take care of the children are important values for the men & women of this mix.  Typically careful with their finances, they plan for future goals & normally want to make sure they can afford to pay for the extras before they go out & buy them.    

## Baby Boomers (1946- 1964: 61 to 43 years old)

- the “me generation”
- hard working, expect solid returns
- self-managed, self-driven
- Biggest challenge? Change adverse :the “punch card generation!”

**Notes:**
Ok now this is a picture you’ll recognize of a group of very famous baby boomers – who says this generational mix is slowing down!  
Seriously though, I suspect that many of this audience are baby boomers.  This group was dubbed the “me” generation because they were seen as somewhat selfish and dismissive of parental control.  They value getting respect for their work and they need clear goals and guidelines along with some freedom to do things their way.  After all these are 40 to 60 year olds and they are still rebelling to some degree.
Speaking of rebelling – this group rebelled against the secure world their parents had created & during their teens & early 20’s they were reluctant to settle down with a good job.  These were the flower children – experimenting with soft drugs & challenging authority – they wanted a open & free society.  But long before they became the “over thirties” they had said they could not trust- they cut their hair, donned business suits & became members of the establishment they had rallied against a few years before.  
Here is a familiar face that is a baby boomer to tell you his story.

## Gen Xers (1965 – 1980: 27 to 42 years old)

- “latch key kids” – extremely independent
- “What do you like to do?” vs. “What do you do for a living?”
- Key career concept: nomadic workers
- Careers and jobs are easy to find (78-48 ratio)
- Biggest challenge: boomer impatience barrier!

**Notes:**
Called latch key kids because they were one of the first generation to have keys to their house so they could get in after school.  
With both parents working, this generation became fiercely  independent & self reliant.   
They feel they are responsible & in charge of their lives & their careers.  They want to have the freedom to define their lives & want the flexibility to do just that.  
They think that, to a large degree, job security is based on their marketability. 

## Gen Y’s  (1981 to 1993: 26 and younger)

- Very entrepreneurial and strong work ethic – 51% part-time/full-time
- Hugely adept with technology
- “multiple experiential careers” is the career path
- biggest challenge: a job is something that gets in the way of having fun – boredom avoidance is critical

**Notes:**
This generation has a very totally different social style from boomers.  The gender walls have disappeared.  They have different relationships with their parents.  
They see their parents as friends and often spend time doing things together – not just holidays as the boomers tended to do. They have been brought up believing that they deserve to be treated fairly and respectfully – no spankings for this generational mix!  They expect support in the workplace and enjoy being mentored and coached.
They are often called the digital generation because the internet is a familiar resource for information & for communication.  
Ask a generation Y’ to help you figure out technology & they know exactly what they are doing – oftentimes, it can be intimidating for the rest of us. I know this from painful experience.

## Gen Connect  1993 and Beyond

- By grade 8, they’ve mastered Word, Powerpoint, and just about everything else
- Collaborative homework, teamwork, social life : collaborative learning is natural
- Masters at multi-tasking – Xbox, TV, IM and cellphone at the same time
- constant change is routine – they  ingest change at a furious pace
- biggest challenge: they are now starting to enter the workforce!

**Notes:**
This generation has a very totally different social style from boomers.  The gender walls have disappeared.  They have different relationships with their parents.  
They see their parents as friends and often spend time doing things together – not just holidays as the boomers tended to do. They have been brought up believing that they deserve to be treated fairly and respectfully – no spankings for this generational mix!  They expect support in the workplace and enjoy being mentored and coached.
They are often called the digital generation because the internet is a familiar resource for information & for communication.  
Ask a generation Y’ to help you figure out technology & they know exactly what they are doing – oftentimes, it can be intimidating for the rest of us. I know this from painful experience.

## 63% of Gen-Y stay less than two years with an employer
52% of Gen-Y think it is easy to find a new job
67% plan to change jobs within the next 12 months
91% plan to change within the next two years
the average age of a Nintendo player is 34....

**52% of Gen-Y think it is easy to find a new job**
**67% plan to change jobs within the next 12 months**
**91% plan to change within the next two years**
**the average age of a Nintendo player is 34....**

## longest life span workforce ever
workforce innovation!

- workforce innovation!

## KnowledgeVelocity...

- KnowledgeVelocity...

## Slide 62

## medical knowledge is doubling every eight years
the same holds true for ag-science

- medical knowledge is doubling every eight years
- the same holds true for ag-science

## rapid exchange of science information results in more rapid advancement of biofuel alternative technologies 
Global collaboration on specific, niche oriented crop risk management strategies
precision farming continues to move from the ‘theoretical’ to the practical as devotees plug in

- Global collaboration on specific, niche oriented crop risk management strategies
- precision farming continues to move from the ‘theoretical’ to the practical as devotees plug in

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## rapid delivery of new science in the farming sector is critical
rapid emergence of new methodologies
community role? -- linking local education to rapidly evolving farming needs - what happens with ag tech, and how do you drive opportunity in rapidly evolving local skill set? (U of Oklahoma example!)

- rapid delivery of new science in the farming sector is critical
- rapid emergence of new methodologies
- community role? -- linking local education to rapidly evolving farming needs - what happens with ag tech, and how do you drive opportunity in rapidly evolving local skill set? (U of Oklahoma example!)

## Slide 70

## while there are 19 million known chemical substances today, the number is constantly doubling every 13 years... with some 80 million by 2025, and 5 billion by 2100

- while there are 19 million known chemical substances today, the number is constantly doubling every 13 years... with some 80 million by 2025, and 5 billion by 2100

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## “....the 1 billionth acre of biotech crops was planed somewhere in the Western Hemisphere during the fall of 2005”
ISAAA

- ISAAA

## “Molecular breeding—using DNA markers for genes in combination with physical measurements of traits—is shortening the cycle that researchers need to develop new seed traits”
Top Producer, Dec. 05

***Top Producer, Dec. 05***

## HiFi: a new spring oat with 50% elevated beta-glucan content, responding to consumer demand for high fiber

## Each lollipop wrapped in fully bio-degradable film made from plant matter
Bags from recycled paper, water-based ink and poly lactic acid made from cornstarch

- Bags from recycled paper, water-based ink and poly lactic acid made from cornstarch

## “a membrane that regulates the flow of gases through the packaging”
“shelf life doubles....”
Wall Street Journal, January ’05

- “shelf life doubles....”
- Wall Street Journal, January ’05

## Slide 80

## Farmers / growers will deal with a continuous flood of new methodologies, crops, ideas and products ...
“the new business intensity”
agility and flexibility

- Farmers / growers will deal with a continuous flood of new methodologies, crops, ideas and products ...
- “the new business intensity”
- agility and flexibility

## Massive connectivity....

## Device intelligence
Location intelligence
Sensor awareness

- Device intelligence
- Location intelligence
- Sensor awareness

## Slide 84

## Slide 85

## “Direct relationships”

- “Direct relationships”

## Slide 87

## AgAnt – an automated robot for stress, disease, weeds, soil status, pests .... @ University of Illinois

## Slide 89

## Constant arrival of new industries, new ideas
Continuous transformation of existing farming infrastructure ....
Think “next-generation”!

- Constant arrival of new industries, new ideas
- Continuous transformation of existing farming infrastructure ....
- Think “next-generation”!

## Slide 91

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## Manure managers!

**Genetics – pit crust**
**Yield management**
**New application methodologies**
**Energy / electricity**
**New revenue sources**

## Rapidity of emergence of specialists in agriculture will increase
Assessment and evaluation models require constant enhancement  

- Rapidity of emergence of specialists in agriculture will increase
- Assessment and evaluation models require constant enhancement

## "We've always done it this way"
"It won't work" 
"That's not my problem" 
"You can't do that" 
"I don't know how" 
"I don't think I can" 
“That's the dumbest thing I ever heard" 
I didn't know that" 
"The boss won't go for it“
"Why should I care?"

- "It won't work"
- "That's not my problem"
- "You can't do that"
- "I don't know how"
- "I don't think I can"
- “That's the dumbest thing I ever heard"
- I didn't know that"
- "The boss won't go for it“
- "Why should I care?"

## Observe
Think
Change
Dare
Banish
Try
Question
Grow
Do
Enjoy!

- Observe
- Think
- Change
- Dare
- Banish
- Try
- Question
- Grow
- Do
- Enjoy!

## Jim Carroll
Author, columnist, nice guy               

- Jim Carroll
- Author, columnist, nice guy