# Presentation: 313064

## Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with Microwave Imagery(SHIPS-MI): Results from 2006

- Daniel J. Cecil
- University of Alabama/Huntsville
- _[cecild@uah.edu](mailto:cecild@uah.edu)_

## SHIPS-MI

-  Starts with SHIPS predictors
-  Adds predictors related to inner core latent heating, based on microwave brightness temperatures
- - Verification here focuses on comparison with SHIPS

## SHIPS-MI

**Forecast**
**Intensity Change**
**(DELV)**

**=**

**Sample Mean**

**Climatology and Persistence**

**Environmental Terms**

**Microwave Terms**

**+**

**+**

**+**

_**In E. Pacific:**_
**Latitude and 200 hPa Divergence added**
**PSLV and VPER removed**

## 2006 Status

- Requires TB data from SSMI, TMI, or AMSR-E
- Timely data only available for ~1/3 of all advisories
- SHIPS-MI run at NHC in 2006

## Example:  Hurricane Hector

**19 GHz**

**85 GHz**

- 1800 UTC 18 August 2006:  Hector 85 kt, weakening
- 237 K Mean 19 GHz TB is well above sample mean, contributes +8 kt to forecast
- Hector weakened much more slowly than forecast by SHIPS;  SHIPS-MI errors were small

**SSM/I  F15**

## 2006 Performance - Atlantic

| duration | 0 | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DSHM | 2.5 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 13.2 | 16.2 | 20.6 | 23.2 | 25.4 | 23.4 | 21.7 | 21.3 |
| DSHP | 2.4 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 13.7 | 17.2 | 22.3 | 24.1 | 24.6 | 22.2 | 19.0 | 16.2 |
| OFCL | 1.8 | 6.4 | 10.4 | 13.7 | 15.3 |  | 20.7 |  | 21.8 |  | 17.3 |
| SHF5 | 2.4 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 13.7 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 12.4 |
| LGEM | 2.4 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 14.2 | 17.7 | 19.0 | 20.1 | 19.4 | 17.6 | 16.4 |
| GFDI | 2.8 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 16.4 | 18.3 | 19.3 | 20.2 | 18.5 | 21.9 |
| NGPI | 6.4 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 17.3 | 18.9 | 22.4 | 24.7 | 27.9 | 30.1 | 33.6 | 34.5 |
| # forecasts | 74 | 70 | 64 | 57 | 54 | 45 | 42 | 36 | 33 | 30 | 26 |

*Mean Absolute Errors (kt)*

- DSHM = “Decay SHIPS-MI”

## 2006 Atlantic storms

- Poor performance (relative to SHIPS) on early-season Tropical Storms;
- SHIPS-MI forecasts usually too strong for these cases

## 2006 Atlantic storms

- Better performance (relative to SHIPS) on the hurricanes that came later.

## 2006 Performance - E. Pacific

| duration | 0 | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DSHM | 2.5 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 13.6 | 15.1 | 15.5 | 15.2 | 18.0 | 18.8 |
| DSHP | 2.5 | 8.5 | 12.9 | 14.1 | 15.3 | 16.2 | 17.2 | 17.6 | 18.4 | 20.5 | 20.6 |
| OFCL | 2.0 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 14.0 |  | 17.3 |  | 15.6 |  | 17.2 |
| SHF5 | 2.5 | 9.4 | 13.4 | 14.5 | 16.6 | 18.3 | 19.0 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 18.9 | 20.8 |
| LGEM | 2.5 | 8.9 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 14.8 | 15.8 | 16.6 | 15.5 | 14.8 | 16.2 | 16.6 |
| GFDI | 3.0 | 9.9 | 13.5 | 14.8 | 16.9 | 19.4 | 23.0 | 20.1 | 18.7 | 16.5 | 15.8 |
| NGPI | 5.7 | 13.4 | 19.0 | 23.1 | 26.8 | 30.8 | 33.3 | 30.4 | 27.3 | 25.4 | 26.4 |
| # forecasts | 132 | 119 | 105 | 93 | 83 | 66 | 56 | 50 | 42 | 31 | 25 |

*Mean Absolute Errors (kt)*

- DSHM = “Decay SHIPS-MI”

## 2006 E. Pacific storms

- SHIPS-MI and SHIPS often have the same general idea for a weakening or intensification trend, but SHIPS-MI is usually a few kt further in the “right” direction

## 2006 E. Pacific storms

- Note improved handling of intensification (Hector) and weakening (John)

## 2006 E. Pacific storms

## 2006 Performance - C. Pacific (Ioke)

| duration | 0 | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 60 | 72 | 84 | 96 | 108 | 120 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DSHM | 0.0 | 11.6 | 27.9 | 41.9 | 47.1 | 55.4 | 57.9 | 67.7 | 73.1 | 81.3 | 91.7 |
| DSHP | 0.0 | 14.0 | 30.7 | 44.1 | 49.3 | 62.4 | 66.9 | 78.0 | 82.4 | 86.5 | 94.7 |
| OFCL | 0.6 | 10.6 | 20.7 | 27.1 | 27.1 |  | 31.4 |  | 40.0 |  | 48.3 |
| SHF5 | 0.0 | 16.6 | 29.7 | 40.6 | 42.4 | 81.9 | 89.1 | 102 | 105 | 110 | 97.0 |
| LGEM | 0.0 | 12.4 | 28.1 | 38.7 | 41.3 | 52.6 | 55.4 | 65.9 | 70.7 | 77.3 | 87.2 |
| GFDI | 0.0 | 10.0 | 19.4 | 22.4 | 19.7 | 16.7 | 11.1 | 17.7 | 18.7 | 18.5 | 16.3 |
| NGPI | 0.0 | 9.8 | 23.1 | 27.9 | 26.3 | 27.4 | 25.0 | 29.9 | 29.7 | 35.7 | 28.2 |
| # forecasts | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |

*Mean Absolute Errors (kt)*

- DSHM = “Decay SHIPS-MI”

## 2006 Central Pacific Ioke

- Many problems with Ioke as it approached / crossed dateline;
- Some predictors computed incorrectly;
- Horrible statistical forecasts

## 2006 W. Pacific

- STIPS-MI adds microwave to the set of STIPS predictors
- Ioke (a West Pacific supertyphoon with a Central Pacific name and number) required a lot of troubleshooting / debugging
- Switch from JTWC to NRL for access to STIPS predictors also required a lot of troubleshooting, eventually led to generation of ensemble STIPS-MI
- Little apparent impact from microwave in STIPS-MI, looks like more trouble than it is worth so far

## 2006 SHIPS-MI Summary

- Atlantic: SHIPS-MI did slightly better than SHIPS, worse than most other guidance
- E. Pacific:  SHIPS-MI did much better than SHIPS, better than other guidance at 24-84 h
- Some of the improvement in East Pacific is due to predictors other than microwave; especially due to inclusion of Latitude predictor (not included in SHIPS)

## Interactive Web Page

- _[http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/Atlantic/shipsmi.cgi](http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/Atlantic/shipsmi.cgi)_
- _[http://](http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/Pacific/EPACshipsmi.cgi)__[nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/Pacific/EPACshipsmi.cgi](http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/Pacific/EPACshipsmi.cgi)_
- _[http://](http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/CentralPacific/CPACshipsmi.cgi)__[nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/CentralPacific/CPACshipsmi.cgi](http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/CentralPacific/CPACshipsmi.cgi)_

## http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/Atlantic/shipsmi.cgi

## http://nsstc.uah.edu/shipsmi/Atlantic/shipsmi.cgi

- Increasing the Mean 19 GHz TB by 1 Standard Deviation (~25 K) increased the forecast ~ 8 kt.

## 2007 SHIPS-MI plans

- Try to add a SHIPS-MI subroutine to DeMaria’s SHIPS code, so a line of SHIPS-MI output can be added to the same page as SHIPS
- Try to improve access to microwave data, particularly SSMIS