# Presentation: 424355

## Bring Your Daughters and Sons to Work - 2006

- April 27, 2006

## New York City and Miami show that there are indeed some sign of Global Warming over the last 100 years or so – does this also affect the sea surface temperatures???

## If Global Warming affects sea surface temperatures can it therefore affect  hurricanes???

**If Global Warming affects sea surface temperatures can it therefore affect  hurricanes???**

## Necessary Ingredients for Hurricanes

**Warm Tropical Water**
*Sea surface temps above 27 degrees Celsius/80 degrees Fahrenheit*
**Tropical Wave**
*Seedling storms move off the coast of Africa*
**High Pressure Aloft**
*Upper atmosphere high*
**Easterly or Weak Westerly Upper Level Flow**

## Slide 5

##   Let’s look at the

-   Let’s look at the
- The hurricane season of 2005!

**Notes:**
Some of the season highlights include
 12 tropical storms of which 8 became hurricanes
 5 major hurricanes, all Category 4...an all-time record
 5 year total of 41 hurricanes...an all-time record
 3 hurricanes (Bret, Floyd, Irene) and 2 tropical storms (Dennis and Harvey) made landfall in the mainland U.S.

##   One for the record books!

-   One for the record books!
- 27(8) named storms!

**Notes:**
Some of the season highlights include
 12 tropical storms of which 8 became hurricanes
 5 major hurricanes, all Category 4...an all-time record
 5 year total of 41 hurricanes...an all-time record
 3 hurricanes (Bret, Floyd, Irene) and 2 tropical storms (Dennis and Harvey) made landfall in the mainland U.S.

## Why did we have so many storms?

## The hurricane’s energy source – warm ocean sea surface temperatures -- were above average!

## Weak El Nino or neutral conditions  occurred during all of the 2005 hurricane season.

**Weak El Nino or neutral conditions meant *****weak vertical shear***** over the tropical Atlantic.  This resulted in conditions favorable for development and strengthening. **

## But the number of storms is not the only issue...it also counts on where the storms hit!

## On average, 1 out of every 3 major hurricanes that develops hits the United States.

**Between 1995 and 2003, **_***thirty-two***_** major hurricanes formed,...**
**...but only 3 major hurricanes - - Opal (1995), Fran (1996), and Bret (1999) - - made landfall during that time!**

## In 2004, the “Law of Averages” began to catch up with us as 3 out of the 6 major hurricanes made landfall.

**In 2005, 5 out of 7 of the major hurricanes made landfall. **
** **
**Let’s hope this trend doesn’t continue!**

## But...wait just a minute!

## What else is coming into play here?

- THE MULTIDECADAL CYCLE!!!!!

## ?

**ACTIVE **

**INACTIVE **

**ACTIVE **

**ACTIVE **

**INACTIVE **

**?**

## Tracks of Major Hurricanes Making Landfall on the U.S. East Coast

***Tracks of ******Major ******Hurricanes Making Landfall on the U.S. East Coast***

**INACTIVE**
**PERIOD**** **

**ACTIVE**
**PERIOD**** **

**Notes:**
16 major hurricanes during 1941-1965 period, but only 2 major hurricanes from 1966-1990.

## A dilemma in the science of hurricanes today...is it Global Warming or the Multidecadal Cylce???

**A dilemma in the science of hurricanes today...is it Global Warming or the Multidecadal Cylce???**
**The meteorology community is stymied!!!!**
**One thing for sure...we must be prepared for more and stronger hurricanes for the next several years!**