# Presentation: 558730

## New Zealand Volcanic Ash Advisory System

**(NZVAAS)**

**June 2004**
**Peter Lechner**
**Head of Business Planning and Reporting**
**Meteorological Authority and Technical Specialist**
**Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand**

**Notes:**
Thankyou Mr Chairman

My background is with both Meteorology and Aviation and the point of view of this presentation is that of the aviation regulator.

In the CAA I co-ordinate New Zealand's meteorological obligations over and above my day job responsibilities in strategic management.

## Volcanic Ash & Aviation

**The Risk and the Reality**
**Background and Development**
**Our Volcanoes**
**System Responsibilities**
**Alert levels and Volcanic Hazard Areas**
**Experience**

**Notes:**
In this presentation I will cover;

Briefly - the risk of volcanic ash in aviation, and the reality of what can happen, 
the experience and issues managing aviation safety during ash events in New Zealand, and 
a little background on the volcanic threat in new Zealand.

I will focus on;

The development of the NZVAAS which is very much a consultative and combined approach, 
the system roles and responsibilities involved in the operational provision of the NZVAAS, and
some of the key system input and output characteristics

## An Increasing Risk

**Enhanced jet engine technology**
**Growth of air traffic volumes**
**Increasing risk of volcanic activity over time**

**Notes:**
Globally, there is a clear and increasing risk to aviation and society from the ejection of volcanic ash into the atmosphere. This increased risk is due to; 

 enhanced jet engine technology – High bypass turbines operating at high temperatures are much more susceptible to the accretion of silicates to the point where the engine will stall due to the compromised air flows. Other airframe technology is also susceptible to ash and chemicals.
 growth of air traffic volumes – There is a greater overall exposure to the globally constant threat level, statistically the ash encounters will increase in proportion to traffic volumes – a particular issue in the Pacific/Asia area where traffic volumes are increasing rapidly and over some of the most volcanically risky areas. 
 increasing risk of volcanic activity - Over time in a local context – any particular area in which aviation operates will have a cumulative volcanic risk. That is to say the threat will materialise eventually.

## Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand, 1996

**Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand****, ****1996**

**Notes:**
New Zealand has its own volcanic threat seen here in full cry in 1996. Some of you will have seen this imagery before and the puffing nature of the volcano is seen by the cut-off in the plume just to the northeast (point out)

Point out:
Auckland and Wellington Cities
Egmont Volcano on Mt Taranaki

The volcanic activity of Mt Ruapehu had a significant impact on civil aviation in New Zealand during both 1995 and 1996. Many flights were cancelled and many more diverted or re-routed. These episodes were the first time volcanic ash has impacted on modern aviation in New Zealand. 

## Airspace

**Airspace**
**Closures 1995/6**

**Cost;**
** ****Airlines >$10million**
** ****CAA >$0.5million**
** ****Others ?**

**Notes:**
The CAA operated a special 24/7 Volcanic Ash Watch Office throughout the 1995/6 periods of volcanic activity at Mt Ruapehu. It’s prime task was to manage volcanic ash affected airspace. 
The slide shows the kind of complexity of CAA airspace management during the Ruapehu eruptions. We were closing (and opening) all sorts of airspace on a hour to hour basis.
It was very difficult for airlines to operate in that kind of regulatory environment.

Costs to the airlines exceeded NZ$10m, and
the CAA's direct cost in managing the situation was >$0.5m (which was ~3% of overall organisational budget!).

Various academic papers have suggested that the costs to communities and economies were very much greater.

## Ash Distribution

**Ash Distribution**

**Notes:**
Volcanic ash clouds can stay in the atmosphere for long periods and ply rather complex routes. There are examples of ash clouds being transported thousands of kilometres over timescales of weeks.

This imagery graphically shows the locally disaggregated nature of the Ruapehu ash plume over a relatively short time:

Changes in the wind fields, frequently common in New Zealand can have a great effect.

 Auckland, for example, can not expect to be unaffected from volcanic ash emanating from any New Zealand volcano. 

As I have said, at the time we saw it as a CAA responsibility to close and manage each affected packet of airspace.

## The CAA Experience

**CAA management of air traffic in a changing and sometimes chaotic ash environment is difficult, expensive and potentially ineffective.**

**Notes:**
The special Volcanic Ash Watch Office operating throughout the periods of volcanic activity at Ruapehu proved a valuable learning experience;
We found that:

 Directly managing volcanic ash affected airspace, by implementing restricted and danger areas through the issue of NOTAM was very difficult. 
 CAA hands-on management of effected airspace was expensive & potentially ineffective.
 The issue and constant modification of regulatory instructions to aviation in itself adversely effected airlines and their operations. 

Nevertheless CAA action was necessary given the significance of those eruptions. 

## Volcanic Threat to NZ Aviation

**Mayor Is****.**
**Whale Is****.**
**Rumble****s**** I **** - V**
_**Curtis Is**__**.**__** **_
_**Brimstone Is**__**.**_
_**Macauley Is**__**.**_
_**Raoul Is**__**.**_
**Monowai Seamont**
**Unnamed x 3**

**Kaikohe-Bay of Islands**
**Whangarei **
**Auckland Field **
_**Egmont**_
**Reporoa **
**Maroa **
**Taupo **
_**Tongariro**_
_**Ngauruhoe **_
_**Ruapehu**_
**Rotorua **
_**Okataina**_

**Volcanic Threat to NZ Aviation**

**Notes:**
Essentially the Ruapehu events have been the primary driving force in seeking better volcanic ash risk mitigation and we have now had valuable experience with it.

New Zealand has a number of volcanoes, each with its own eruptive characteristics. Scientific study indicates that the majority must be considered as dormant, rather than extinct, and that they will produce eruptions at some indeterminate time in the future. 

The most significant are; Point)

Ruapehu 
Ngauruhoe
White Island

Given the predominant W - SW air flow over the country and that the domestic air routes are lie mostly north/south, the CAA and the aviation community clearly needed a better way of managing volcanic ash risk.

To find a better solution to managing aviation during ash events a CAA and airline fact finding team went to North America in 1996 where it sought advice and experience on ways of operating aircraft near volcanic ash with minimum disruption. 

## Volcanic Ash Issues

**Tracking and drift prediction**
**Information flow**
**Air space management**
**Airline discretion**
**Education **
**System ownership and funding**

**Volcanic Ash Issues**

**Notes:**
As a result of the fact-finding team's report in 1997, the way that ash affected airspace was managed and the type and volume of information available on that airspace was reviewed. The main issues to safely allow civil aviation to continue in proximity to volcanic ash were; 

Provision of improved alerts and observations of eruptions,	
Improved tracking and drift prediction of ash,
Insuring appropriate communications systems and information flow,
Contingent management of air space, 
Airline discretion,
Better education of the aviation community on ash and its effects, and
Ownership  and funding of an ash hazards advisory system.

## Collaborative Development

**Collaborative Development**

**Aircraft operators**
**MetService**** **
**Airways Corporation**
**Civil Aviation Authority**
**Institute Geological & Nuclear Sciences**

**Notes:**
All parties in the development of the NZ VAAS had significant interest in the development process and the management of the new system.
And all parties were prepared to commit resource and personnel to the development of the system.

 MetService – the national meteorological organisation with interest in providing good, fit for purpose, meteorological product.

 CAA – the aviation regulator with a statutory responsibility for mitigating aviation safety risk.

 IGNS – having volcanological expertise and ground level monitoring with civil defence warning responsibilities.

 ACNZ – the air traffic control organisation for NZ responsible for the operational guidance of aircraft.

 Airlines – operations that need to meet their commercial imperatives without incurring undue safety risk.

## NZVAAS - 1

**MetService**

**ACNZ**

**IGNS**

**Aircraft Operators**

**Volcano**

**VAR feedback**

**SIGMET (RTF etc)**

**VAR **
**by RTF**

**VAR by fax **
**(post flight)**

**SIGMET (AFTN)**

**VARs **

**Alert level **
**& eruption **
**information**

**Satellite or**
**other eruption **
**Information**

**Electronic &**
**visual eruption**
** ****& status information**
**Confirm or deny**
**information **

**Independent **
**observations**
**or liaison**

**Other **
**people**

**NOTAM Request**
**(& confirmation)**

**NOTAM**

**Normal **
**pre-flight Met.**
**information**

**VAR feedback**

**NZ****VAAS ****- 1**

**Notes:**
With all of the interested parties involved, derivation of the best system for NZ was ultimately straight forward. The diagram shows the specific relationships and responsibilities. Working through the roles and responsibilities of each organisation:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
If time is short  -

Civil Aviation Authority - responsible for ensuring a satisfactory means exists whereby civil aviation aircraft operations can be safely carried out near volcanic ash. 
Not responsible for providing any operation warning service or airspace changes. 
MetService - to provide enhanced and timely volcanic ash SIGMETs and any other volcanic activity or ash information packages required.
- To manage the NZVAAS.
 To maintain volcanic NOTAMs. 
Airways Corporation - to provide NOTAM services, access to volcanic SIGMET and appropriate VAR information transmission. To provide alternative routes for aircraft.
To collect ash reports from aircraft and disseminate this information to MetService, IGNS and aircraft operators. 
Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences - To keep MetService informed as to any volcanic activity taking place or expected to take place in New Zealand. 
Aircraft Operators - To ensure their aircraft do not operate in volcanic ash.
To provide Volcanic Activity Reports. 

## NZVAAS - 2

**To ensure a satisfactory means exists whereby civil aviation aircraft operations can be safely carried out near volcanic ash.**
**The CAA is **_**not**_** responsible for providing any service to airlines to directly assist them with such operations.**

**CAA Responsibility:**

**Notes:**
In the NZVAAS, the CAA is responsible for ensuring a satisfactory means exists whereby civil aviation aircraft operations can be safely carried out near volcanic ash. The CAA is not responsible for providing any service to airlines to directly assist them with such operations. 

## NZVAAS - 3

**Review the effectiveness of the volcanic ash information system from time to time.**
**Ensure ACNZ, MetService and IGNS have any delegations or permissions required under the Civil Aviation Act 1990 to carry out their roles. **
**Publish, in the appropriate medium, a clear statement of how the volcanic ash information system works in New Zealand.**
**Continue to publish any appropriate educational or technical information on aircraft operation in or near volcanic ash, the volcanic situation in New Zealand or any other relevant material.**
**Establish any new Volcanic Hazard Zones (VHZ) that may be needed to cover volcanoes other than those contemplated.**

**CAA Role:**

**Notes:**
The CAA’s role is to:

Review the effectiveness of the volcanic ash information system from time to time.
Ensure ACNZ, MetService and IGNS have any delegations or permissions required under the Civil Aviation Act to carry out their roles. 
Publish, in the appropriate medium, a clear statement of how the volcanic ash information system works in New Zealand.
Continue to publish any appropriate educational or technical information on aircraft operation in or near volcanic ash, the volcanic situation in New Zealand or any other relevant material.
Establish any new Volcanic Hazard Zone (VHZ) that may be needed to cover volcanoes other than those contemplated so far.

## NZVAAS - 4

**MetService**

**ACNZ**

**IGNS**

**Aircraft Operators**

**Volcano**

**VAR feedback**

**SIGMET (RTF etc)**

**VAR **
**by RTF**

**VAR by fax **
**(post flight)**

**SIGMET (AFTN)**

**VARs **

**Alert level **
**& eruption **
**information**

**Satellite or**
**other eruption **
**Information**

**Electronic &**
**visual eruption**
** ****& status information**
**Confirm or deny**
**information **

**Independent **
**observations**
**or liaison**

**Other **
**people**

**NOTAM Request**
**(& confirmation)**

**NOTAM**

**Normal **
**pre-flight Met.**
**information**

**VAR feedback**

**NZ****VAAS ****- 4**

**Notes:**
MetService’s responsibility is to provide civil aviation with enhanced and timely volcanic ash SIGMETs and any other volcanic activity or ash information packages required pursuant to New Zealand’s ICAO obligations, and to maintain volcanic NOTAMs. 

MetService’s role is to:

Maintain a watch over actual and possible volcanic events through the use of satellite and land based meteorological information systems and the use of atmospheric trajectory and dispersion models.
Notify IGNS of any possible eruption detected in New Zealand not already notified by IGNS.
Use suitable atmospheric trajectory and dispersion models to identify the probable path of ejected ash.
Use all appropriate internal and external procedures to generate timely SIGMETs to notify civil aviation of the present and likely future position of volcanic ash in New Zealand’s area of responsibility.
Maintain a Volcanic SIGMET watch and update the SIGMET bulletin as frequently as possible and within the ICAO guide-lines.
Provide any extra information such as satellite imagery, ash trajectory information or other graphics that may be requested by civil aircraft operators.
Provide information to IGNS such as wind profile data or independent observation information that may be appropriate.
When notified by IGNS of a change in the Scientific Alert Levels immediately request ACNZ to issue the appropriate NOTAM.
Maintain the currency of any related NOTAM in liaison with ACNZ.
Maintain a watch on technological developments and apply any advances in this area to operations.

## NZVAAS - 5

**ACNZ**

**IGNS**

**Aircraft Operators**

**Volcano**

**VAR feedback**

**SIGMET (RTF etc)**

**VAR **
**by RTF**

**VAR by fax **
**(post flight)**

**SIGMET (AFTN)**

**VARs **

**Alert level **
**& eruption **
**information**

**Satellite or**
**other eruption **
**Information**

**Electronic &**
**visual eruption**
** ****& status information**
**Confirm or deny**
**information **

**Independent **
**observations**
**or liaison**

**Other **
**people**

**NOTAM Request**
**(& confirmation)**

**NOTAM**

**Normal **
**pre-flight Met.**
**information**

**VAR feedback**

**NZ****VAAS ****- 5**

**MetService**

**Notes:**
The responsibility of ACNZ is to provide to civil aviation the NOTAM service, access to volcanic SIGMET and appropriate VAR information pursuant to New Zealand’s ICAO obligations. It also collects, from aircraft, VAR information and disseminates this information to MetService, IGNS and accessible aircraft operators.

The ACNZ role is to:
Ensure that meteorological reports passed to MetService and civil aviation contains appropriate information on the presence (or not as the case may be) of volcanic ash or other volcanic phenomena.
Ensure that all AIREPs containing information on volcanic ash and Volcanic Activity Reports (VARs) received from aircraft are passed with utmost urgency to MetService and any other addressees on the VAR distribution list. 
Ensure that updated Volcanic SIGMETs provided by MetService are expeditiously passed to aircraft in flight, especially those operating in the vicinity of any ash.
Upon the receipt of a notification from MetService that the Scientific Alert Level of a given volcano has been changed, immediately issue the appropriate NOTAM. 
Notify MetService 24 hours before the expiry of any given NOTAM and request an update or confirmation of cancellation.
Set up a system to notify operators which routes and procedures will be affected by each level of volcanic activity.
Ensure that VFR or IFR aircraft that require an ATC clearance to operate within the areas of concern will not be granted a clearance without a specific route request from the pilot.

## NZVAAS - 6

**MetService**

**ACNZ**

**IGNS**

**Aircraft Operators**

**Volcano**

**VAR feedback**

**SIGMET (RTF etc)**

**VAR **
**by RTF**

**VAR by fax **
**(post flight)**

**SIGMET (AFTN)**

**VARs **

**Alert level **
**& eruption **
**information**

**Satellite or**
**other eruption **
**Information**

**Electronic &**
**visual eruption**
** ****& status information**
**Confirm or deny**
**information **

**Independent **
**observations**
**or liaison**

**Other **
**people**

**NOTAM Request**
**(& confirmation)**

**NOTAM**

**Normal **
**pre-flight Met.**
**information**

**VAR feedback**

**NZ****VAAS ****- 6**

**Notes:**
The prime responsibility of IGNS is to keep MetService informed as to any volcanic activity taking place in New Zealand. 

The role of IGNS is:

Maintain monitoring of volcanoes in New Zealand territory and the VAAC area of responsibility, particularly Ruapehu, Ngauruhoe and White Island, on a 24-hour basis. This should encompass the ability to confirm or deny any reported or suspected ash eruption.
Notify MetService of any change in assessed official activity level (ie; Scientific Alert Levels) immediately that decision has been made. 
Notify MetService should the risk assessment of any volcano change positively or negatively (ie; Scientific Alert Bulletin).
Advise MetService of any new eruption information as it becomes available. This includes information on; eruption time and expected activity period, eruption type (steam, gas, and ash) and any other relevant advice.

## NZVAAS - 7

**MetService**

**ACNZ**

**IGNS**

**Aircraft Operators**

**Volcano**

**VAR feedback**

**SIGMET (RTF etc)**

**VAR **
**by RTF**

**VAR by fax **
**(post flight)**

**SIGMET (AFTN)**

**VARs **

**Alert level **
**& eruption **
**information**

**Satellite or**
**other eruption **
**Information**

**Electronic &**
**visual eruption**
** ****& status information**
**Confirm or deny**
**information **

**Independent **
**observations**
**or liaison**

**Other **
**people**

**NOTAM Request**
**(& confirmation)**

**NOTAM**

**Normal **
**pre-flight Met.**
**information**

**VAR feedback**

**NZ****VAAS ****- 7**

**Notes:**
The responsibility of aircraft operators is to ensure their aircraft do not operate in volcanic ash and to provide Volcanic Activity Reports (VARs) when appropriate. 

The aircraft operators role is to:
Ensure procedures are incorporated in operations manuals for the reporting of volcanic events and ash, including the generation and distribution of these reports (VARs) following the prescribed international guidelines (ICAO).
Ensure that aircrew are fully aware of their civil aviation regulatory obligations insofar as Volcanic Hazard Zones (NOTAM) are concerned.
Ensure that aircrew have adequate background knowledge of the atmospheric and airframe effects of volcanic events especially in the context of the New Zealand volcanic situation.
Ensure procedures are incorporated in operations manuals for the safe operation of aircraft near areas of volcanic ash.
Ensure ACNZ is aware of their particular ash episode re-route preferences.

## Volcano Alert Levels

| FREQUENTLY ACTIVE VOLCANOES
White Island, Tongariro -Ngauruhoe, Ruapehu |  | SCIENTIFIC ALERT LEVEL | REAWAKENING VOLCANOES 
Kermadecs, Northland, Auckland, Mayor Island, Rotorua, Okataina, Taupo, Egmont |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Volcano Status | Indicative Phenomena |  | Indicative Phenomena | Volcano Status |
| Usual dormant or quiescent state. | Typical background surface activity; seismicity, deformation and heat flow at low levels. | 0 | Typical background surface activity; seismicity, deformation and heat flow at low levels. | Usual dormant or quiescent state. |
| Signs of volcano unrest. | Departure from typical background surface activity. | 1 | Apparent seismic, geodetic, thermal or other unrest indicators | Initial signs of possible volcano unrest. No eruption threat. |
| Minor eruptive activity. | Onset of eruptive activity, accompanied by changes to monitored indicators. | 2 | Increase in number or intensity of unrest indicators (seismicity, deformation, heat flow etc.). | Confirmation of volcano unrest. Eruption threat. |
| Significant local eruption in progress. | Increased vigour of ongoing activity and monitored indicators. | 3 | Minor eruptions. High increasing trends of unrest indicators, significant effects on volcano and possibly beyond. | Minor eruptions commenced. Real possibility of hazardous eruptions. |
| Hazardous local eruption in progress. | Significant change to ongoing activity and monitoring indicators. Effects beyond volcano. | 4 | Eruption of new magma. Sustained high levels of unrest indicators, significant effects beyond volcano. | Hazardous local eruption in progress. Large scale eruption now possible. |
| Large hazardous eruption in progress. | Destruction with major damage beyond volcano. Significant risk over wider areas. | 5 | Destruction with major damage beyond active volcano. Significant risk over wider areas. | Large hazardous volcanic eruption in progress. |

**Notes:**
The New Zealand Volcano Scientific Alert Levels are based on a six-level system, with each level defining a change of status at the volcano or field. The lowest level (dormancy) is signified by ‘0’ and the highest (large hazardous eruption) by ‘5’. The scale or size of an event will vary from volcano to volcano, ie; a Level ‘3’ event at Ruapehu will be larger than a Level ‘3’ at Ngauruhoe. Where information from the IGNS volcano surveillance programme indicates a change in a volcano’s status (either up or down), IGNS will adjust the Scientific Alert Level by issuing a ‘Science Alert Bulletin’.

## Volcanic Hazard Zone Limits

| Volcano Alert Level | Radius from Vent (nm) | Volcanic Hazard Zone Upper Limit |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  | Ruapehu 
(VHZ 314) | Ngauruhoe 
(VHZ313) | White Island
(VHZ 211) | Any other NZ volcano |
| 1 | 3 | 12,200ft AMSL | 10,500ft AMSL | 4,500ft AMSL | 3000 ft above vent  |
| 2 | 8 | FL 150 | FL 150 | FL 150 | FL 150 |
| 3 | 16 | FL 330 | FL 330 | FL 330 | FL 330 |
| 4 | 27 | FL 480 | FL 480 | FL 480 | FL 480 |
| 5 | >50 | unlimited | unlimited | unlimited | unlimited |

**Notes:**
Importantly, for the civil aviation community a change in the Scientific Alert Level triggers the immediate generation, or change of, a NOTAM on a Volcanic Hazard Zone (VHZ).

The slide shows the cylindrical parameters for each of the most at risk volcanoes and the default parameters for any of the other volcanoes in new Zealand.

## Volcanic Hazard Zones

**Volcanic Hazard Zones**

***For Alert Level 3***
**VHZ = 16nm radius, **
**ground level to FL 330**

**Notes:**
The Volcanic Hazard Area concept is an important aspect of the NZVAAS:

 The VHZs provide a formal and legal description of airspace status;
Cylinder of airspace pre-determined and directly related to the nature and Scientific Alter Level on the particular volcano.
Determination of dimensions in consultation with IGNS scientists.
Aircraft may operate in the airspace at their discretion - VHZ only precludes night time instrument flying.
Accepted that such operations will only be carried out when the operator is satisfied that information from NZVAAS shows the operation is possible.
Aircraft are expected not to deliberately fly through ash.

Note that Ruapehu has a permanent VHZ set at level 1.

## Operator Discretion

**Operator Discretion**

**Airlines now decide where and when they can safely operate during a volcanic event**
**Only possible through the conjoint and co-operative provision of NZVAAS**

**Notes:**
Airlines now decide where and when they can safely operate during a volcanic event in New Zealand
This is only possible through the conjoint and co-operative provision of VAAS;
In particular

NZVAAS information availability,
A centralised management,
Education on the the nature and effects of volcanic ash,
Education on flight operations procedures, and the
Dynamic implementation of VHZs

## Summary

**Summary**

**Threat of volcanic ash in aviation is increasing**
**NZVAAS implemented to mitigate that risk at a local level**
**NZVAAS supplements ICAO IAVW**
**A high level of good information is available**
**NZVAAS permits aircraft operations to safely continue in proximity to ash**
**It is a low cost scalable operation**** **

**Notes:**
So in Summary:

We all accept that there is an increasing threat of volcanic activity to aviation and society.
NZVAAS was developed in response to this increasing risk and with the full involvement of the aviation industry.
NZVAAS effectively supplements ICAO VAAC/IAVW systems at a local level.
A High level of information is available through the NZVAAS. 
The NZVAAS permits aircraft operations to safely continue in proximity to ash.

And a side issue I have not dealt with in this presentation, it is a low cost and scalable operation.

## Conclusion

**Conclusion**

**NZVAAS:**
** ****An effective system for New Zealand**** **
** ****Its success stems from:**
** ****formal arrangements and systems, and **
** ****co-operative and collaborative relationships**

**Notes:**
In conclusion;

The NZVAAS has proven to be a very effective system for New Zealand.
Most importantly for this conference, and for the effective mitigation of volcanic ash risk in aviation
it has highlighted the importance of having co-operative and collaborative relationships between the regulator, the meteorological service provider, the air traffic service provider, the aircraft operators and the volcanological organisation.

Thank you for your time.