# Presentation: 740951

## The Role ofFUSION in a Long-Term, Global Energy Technology Strategy

**The Role of****FUSION**** ****in a Long-Term, Global Energy Technology Strategy**

**To Address Climate Change**
- John Clarke, Jae Edmonds & Sonny Kim
**	****	****	**

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## THE GLOBAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY PROJECT CURRENT SPONSORS

**THE GLOBAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY PROJECT**** ****CURRENT SPONSORS**

**Battelle**
**British Petroleum**
**EPRI**
**European Union**
**Mobil Oil**
**Japan’s NIES**
**Toyota Motor Corporation**
**U.S. Department of Energy**

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## A TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY COLLABORATIONINTERNATIONAL

**A TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY COLLABORATION****INTERNATIONAL**

**Beijing Energy Research Institute**
**Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnment et le Developpement**
**Council on Agricultural Science and Technology**
**Council on Foreign Relations**
**Indian Institute for Management**
**Intern’l Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis**
**Japan Science & Technology Corporation**
**Korean Energy Economics Institute**
**National Autonomous University of Mexico**
**National Inst. for Env. Studies, Japan**
**Potsdam Institute for Climate Studies**
**Stanford Energy Modeling Forum**
**TATA Energy Research Institute**

- Battelle Memorial Institute

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

## CONCLUSIONS

**CONCLUSIONS**

**Fusion--and in particular electricity--has a major role to play in a technology strategy to address climate change, but**
**Fusion will be part of a technology portfolio, including**
*Supporting technologies e.g. batteries & fuel cells, and *
*Complementary technologies e.g. biomass, solar, conservation, nuclear, natural gas, hydrogen, generation, carbon capture & sequestration.*

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## Energy TechnologiesFilling the Global CO2 Emissions Gap(An Illustrative Example)

**Energy Technologies****Filling the Global CO****2**** Emissions Gap****(An Illustrative Example)**

- 550 ppmv Stabilization Emissions

**Reference Emissions**

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## FILLING THE GAP

**No one technology will solve the climate problem alone.**
**A mix of technologies will be needed including--fusion, solar, fission, biomass, conservation, and fossil fuels.**
**The contribution of technologies to the solution will depend on their relative economic performance.**

## CONCLUSIONS

**CONCLUSIONS**

**Fusion will benefit from emissions mitigation, but **
**Unless it is economically competitive, its role will be limited.**
**The value of successful research on fusion energy is great.**

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## Unconventional Oil & Gas production is limited by coal availability and low-cost of synthetic fuels.
Coal is the dominant form of primary energy, but is used primarily in a transformed state.

*Unconventional Oil & Gas production is limited by coal availability and low-cost of synthetic fuels.*
*Coal is the dominant form of primary energy, but is used primarily in a transformed state.*

**REFERENCE CASE**

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

## REFERENCE CASE FUSION TECHNOLOGY

**REFERENCE CASE**** ****FUSION TECHNOLOGY**

_**	**__**	**__**Cost**__**	**__**	**__**Year**_
**>$0.50/kWh ****	****2035**
**$0.15/kWh ****	****	****2050**
**$0.05/kWh****	****	****2095**

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

**Cost**

## FUSION COST SENSITIVITY(2095 Cost, 1996 $)

**Lowest = $0.03/kWh**
**Low = $0.04/kWh**
**Mid = $0.05/kWh**
**High = $0.08/kWh**
**Highest = $0.10/kWh**

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## FUSION MARKET PENETRATION

**Reference Case, Alternative Fusion Costs**

## EMISSIONS MITIGATION CASES

**EMISSIONS MITIGATION CASES**

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## FUSION POWER & EMISSIONS MITIGATION

**FUSION POWER & EMISSIONS MITIGATION**

**Fusion benefits from carbon taxes.**
**Each $100/tonneC is worth **
**$0.011 to $0.018/kWh**
***(depending on fossil fuel alternative)***

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## 550 ppmv ceiling

***550 ppmv ceiling***

## FUSION INTERACTION WITH OTHER TECHNOLOGIES

**FUSION INTERACTION WITH OTHER TECHNOLOGIES**

**High cost fusion benefits only marginally because it is more expensive than alternative mitigation options.**
**Low cost fusion significantly reduces carbon emission mitigation requirements.**

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## Effect of 550 ppmv Stabilization on Fusion’s Electricity Share of 2095 Power Generation Market

## VALUE OF SUCCESSFUL FUSION R&D WITH EMISSIONS MITIGATION 

**VALUE OF SUCCESSFUL FUSION R&D WITH EMISSIONS MITIGATION **

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## VALUE of FUSION TECHNOLOGY

## Value Of Particular Fusion R&D Targets 

**Value Of Particular Fusion R&D Targets **

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## Electricity Market: Price Ratios

**(USA Stabilization at 550 ppm less USA BAU)**

**Assumes dominant **
**market share**

## Hydrogen Market: Price Ratios

**(USA Stabilization at 550 ppm less USA BAU)**

## How Does Hydrogen Production Technology Change With Stabilization Policy?

**(USA Stabilization at 550 ppm less USA BAU)**

## CONCLUSIONSFusion’s role in a technology strategy to address climate change

**CONCLUSIONS****F****usion’s role in a technology strategy to address climate change**

**Fusion has a major role to play in **_**Electricity production**_** . . .but**
**Fusion power will **_**not**_** be a major contributor to **_**Hydrogen production**_** unless**
*Significant advances occur in electrolysis technology *_*and*_
*Fusion can demonstrate a competitive advantage (E.g. using heat)*

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## CONCLUSIONS

**CONCLUSIONS**

**Fusion will benefit from emissions mitigation, **_**but**_** **
**Unless it is economically competitive, its role will be limited. E.g. hydrogen generation**

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

## CONCLUSIONS

**CONCLUSIONS**

**Fusion R&D needs to identify and target those unique features that can give fusion a competitive advantage. **
**Capitalize on fusion’s unique technical characteristics. **
**“****Only a foolish elephant tries to be a mouse****1****”**
**In this regard, a critical, comparative study of competitive technology characteristics and performance **_**projections**_** is essential. **

- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

- Battelle Memorial Institute

- 1) Attributed to Lau Tzu by JFC