# Presentation: 749785

## Contributions toNatural Disaster Reduction and Risk Assessments

**Steven R. Shafer**
***National Program Leader***
***Global Change Research***

## Risk Assessment andRisk Management in USDA

- Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
- Forest Service
- Natural Resources Conservation Service
- Food Safety Inspection Service
- Risk Management Agency
- Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis
- Agricultural Research Service

**Notes:**
Risk assessments and risk management activities are conducted in a number of agencies throughout USDA.  We heard about some of these conducted in the Forest Service.  
I am guessing that more risk assessments are done on a routine basis in APHIS than in any other USDA agency.  These are done for the purposes of permitting or not permitting the import of plant and animal material into the US, for the purposes of protecting American agriculture, forests, and natural ecosystems from exotic pests, pathogens, and weeds.  They also do risk assessments for determining whether or not to allow field testing of genetically modified crops and animals.  APHIS risk assessment guidelines are pretty well defined, and are consistent with several international conventions for this purpose.
We heard about some risk assessment and management activities in the Forest Service from David Cleves.
The Natural Resources Conservation Service does some risk assessments for specific types of programs and rule-making.  Some of these probably are better thought of as analyses of risk reduction in the environment, resulting from various programs.
The Food Safety Inspection Service conducts some risk assessments to determine what rules are appropriate to maintain the safety of the nation’s food supply.
The USDA Risk Management Agency is the arm of the USDA that administers crop insurance programs.  Farmers enrolled in their programs can collect insurance payments in the event of crop or animal losses attributable to adverse weather, pests, and other causes.
The Office of Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis is a small unit tasked with oversight functions.  Some risk assessments done by USDA are mandated by law, and ORACBA has a guidance and review function for those.
ARS is the main in-house research arm of the USDA.  Our activities related to risk come about from using risk concepts to help identify high-priority research that could be used in risk assessments or in developing risk management strategies.

## Research on Risk Assessment and Risk Management in USDA-ARS

- Biotechnology
- Watershed Flood Control
- Global Change
- Fire Suppression
- Others

**www.ars.usda.gov**

**Notes:**
Since we are a research agency, there are many areas we could discuss.  One area that is decidedly NOT related to risks associated with natural phenomena is biotechnology risk assessment.  I mention this here only to let you know that this is an important area of research for ARS right now.
In the limited time I have, I have chosen to show you our risk-related research in two areas, Watershed Flood Control and Global Change.  We have significant efforts in other areas, though, such as fire suppression in range lands.  You can visit our web site if you want to learn details about our research programs.

## Watershed Flood Control Projects under The Watershed Protection and Flood Prevention Act of 1954

**Watershed Flood Control Projects under The Watershed Protection and Flood Prevention Act of 1954**

**Authorized 1,613 watershed projects to date, all 50 states, involving 109 million acres and 6,300 flood control dams**

**Notes:**
Flood control is an area of risk management that USDA has been involved in since the 1940s, maybe earlier.  There are several programs and pieces of legislation that keep USDA involved in flood control.  One of the acts of Congress in this regard is the Watershed Protection and Flood Prevention Act of 1954.  This act authorized watershed management projects throughout the country.  As of this year, funds authorized by this law have been spent on over 6,000 dams, managing flood risks on over 100 million acres in all 50 states.

## Watershed Flood Control

- USDA program assistance to local communites
- $14 B,  10,000 structures
- $1 B in benefits yearly

**Notes:**
Across all USDA programs since the 1940s, which are delivered by the Natural Resources Conservation Service, some $14 billion has been delivered to local communities to build about 10,000 flood control structures, yielding an estimated $1 billion in benefits every year.
The problem is, many of these structures are decades old, and some are beginning to have structural problems, such as this earthen dam that has failed after a heavy rainstorm.  ARS partners with NRCS to explore ways to deal with this aging infrastructure.

## Research on Watershed Flood Control

- Technology for predicting performance during extreme events
- Design criteria for upgrading structures to meet modern safety and performance standards
- Improved procedures for estimating sediment loading
- Improved procedures for evaluating the impact of structure installation, modification, or decommissioning
- Evaluation of hydraulic performance, structure modification, site-specific problems

**Notes:**
ARS research on watershed flood control falls into several broad categories.

## Flood control research accomplishments

**Design criteria for structures and practices that dissipate energy, stabilize channels, and control sedimantation**

**Notes:**
There have been some significant accomplishments over the years, especially in the design of structures to dissipate the energy of rapidly flowing water, or sediment management.  These can affect the life span and performance of many of these aging dams.  The top photo shows a drop structure, which may be used to stabilize stream channels and reduce the quantity of sediment in the system. 
In the bottom photo, streambank stabilization is another key element in reducing sediment delivery to the channel system and extending the life of flood control measures.  Rock chutes, such as the laboratory prototype shown here, may be used to stabilize channel banks at points of side inflow to incised channels.
ARS has developed design criteria for a number of different structures applicable to different channel conditions and discharges. 

## Slide 8

**Notes:**
ARS researchers, along with partners in NRCS and universities, have spent many years developing models and equations to estimate rates of erosion and sedimentation.  In the 1960s, the Universal Soil Loss Equation was developed to quantify water erosion.  In 1992, the Revised equation was released, and just in the past year or so, a second revision has become available.  The name “Equation” is something of a simplification, as these are quite complex sets of interacting models and equations utilizing data about the soil, topography, weather, and agricultural and other land practices to make precise estimates of water flow and sedimant movement.  The RUSLE is a key part of examining the adequacy of aging dams.

## Effective use of vegetation to control sedimentation and flooding

**Effective use of vegetation to control sedimentation and flooding**

**Notes:**
ARS also conducts research into how to make use of plants to manage water flow and erosion.  Cropping practices and planting of trees and grassways have a huge influence on watershed-scale losses of water and soil.

## Slide 10

**Notes:**
As I said, since ARS is a research agency, much of what we do could be viewed as supporting risk assessment and risk management.  Our research portfolio is arranged into some 23 National Programs, and as you look down the list and see titles such as Food Safety, Water Quality and Management, Crop Protection and Quarantine, and others, you get a sense of how much risk-related research goes on in our agency.  In the time remaining, I’ll tell you a little about the one I am responsible for leading, the Global Change research program.

## Not disputed: Agriculture exists in an ever-changing environment

- Changes in land use
- Weather and climate variability
- Increasing atmospheric CO2
- Changing interactions of crops with  weeds, pests, pathogens
- Increases and decreases in soil carbon, with associated broad environmental implications

*How can agriculture adapt to these constant changes more effectively, and how can it contribute to mitigating environmental changes?*

**Notes:**
Whether or not you believe that climate is changing or that atmospheric CO2 has anything to do with it or if human activities have anything to do with it, the fact remains that agriculture has existed in a changing environment since we started practicing it some 10,000 years ago.  Without doubt, the environment is the farmer’s biggest factor when it comes to risk assessment and risk management.  So it only makes sense for ARS to have a research program in global change to investigate the impacts and responses to environmental changes such as those listed here.Our research focuses on the three classic questions in risk assessment: What can go wrong, how likely is it to occur, and how bad will it be?  And then of course, the risk management question, what can we do about it?

## Integrate NOAA Climate Forecasts into Risk-Based Production Management and Resources Conservation

**Notes:**
Weather variability and unpredictability remains one of the greatest limitations to farm production, and IF climate change is occurring, the models predict that weather variability will increase.  ARS has scientists who are working to use NOAA 3-month rolling climate projections to develop risk management tools for farmers and range land managers.  By predicting the likelihood and severity of say, drought over the next three months, and grazing lands manager in the Great Plains, might decide to use a slightly lower animal stocking rate per acre, because there would be less vegetation for the animals to eat.  Or a farmer might make the decision to plant a different crop or variety than what he might have planted without that knowledge.

## Response of Crops to Elevated CO2 at Low and High O3 Concentrations

- <date/time>

- Response of Crops to Elevated CO2 at Low and High O3 Concentrations

**50**

**100**

**150**

**200**

**250**

**360**

**540**

**720**

** ****Carbon Dioxide (ppm)**

**Relative Yield (%) **

**Low O****3**

**High O****3**

- Wheat

- Soybean

- Cotton

**Notes:**
One thing that isn’t disputed is that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been increasing since the mid-1800s.  In general, CO2 stimulates the growth of many crops ---- all other things being equal.  The problem is, all other things are rarely equal.  So despite what you might read in the papers, we really don’t know exactly how well our crops will fare in the future, given all the interactions of CO2 with water availability, temperature, pests, pathogens, weeds, and so forth.
One example of this is the interaction of CO2 with another gas that is increasing at ground level due to industrialization, and that’s ozone.  As opposed to CO2, ozone is toxic to plants, so it tends to offset the benefits from CO2.  This graph shows that the increase in yields of wheat, cotton, and soybeans depends on both CO2 and Ozone.  By doing these interaction studies, and strengthening them with experimental designs that use dose-response concepts, data can be gathered for risk assessments.

## Slide 14

**Notes:**
Such an approach is strengthened further by getting a handle on where the ozone is, and in what concentrations.  Unlike CO2, which is more uniform in its distribution, ozone is a very regional problem.  By using research results and ozone monitoring data, risk models can be developed to project crop yields under future atmospheric chemistry conditions.
That’s all I have time for.  ARS research is conducted by some 2000 scientists, at over 100 locations throughout the country.  Much of it is very much concerned with assessing risks and determining ways to manage it, to maintain the quantities and quality of food in this country that makes it the envy of the world.