# Presentation: 657138

## 
Symposium on the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction

Dr. Jack Hayes Director, Office of Science and TechnologyNOAA National Weather Service
June 16, 2004

**Symposium on the 50****th**** Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction**
**Dr. Jack Hayes ****Director, Office of Science and Technology****NOAA National Weather Service**
**June***** 16, 2004***

**A Vision for Environmental Services as NWP Enters the Next 50 Years**

**Notes:**
It is clear that by the GOES-R era, there will be no difference between weather, water, earth, oceans, biology...

NOAA is moving towards being a full-service environmental agency.

My talk is not about what the NWS needs to get our job done, because by the GOES-R era we will have a different job to do.

When ROES-R is launched, the world will be a different place.

## Overview

**Progress:  1950s – Today**
**Environmental Services for the 21****st**** Century:  Driven by a New Generation of Scientific Models**
**Challenges and Strategies**

## Numerical Weather Prediction 1954-Today

***Numerical Weather Prediction****** ******1954-Today***

**Sustained improvement -- Day per decade for over 40 years**
**Key to increasingly accurate and longer-lead time weather forecasts and warnings**

## Some ExamplesImproved Operational Warnings and Forecasts

**Hurricane Track Forecast Errors in Atlantic basin: 24-72 Hrs**

## Some ExamplesImproved Operational Warnings and Forecasts

**Day 1**

**Day 2**

**QPF 1” Threat Score: Days 1 and 2**

## Past Success Generates New Challenges

**Nation’s Needs Growing**
***Migration to coasts and                                                                            environmentally sensitive areas ***
***Awareness of health and                                                                            economic impacts ***
***Ecosystem sensitivities***
**S&T Advancing**
***Observing systems ***
**Satellites**
**Radar**
***Modeling***
**Physics**
**Ensembles**

**Notes:**
Clearly, We can not stand still...  There are things we know we must do...

Coastal Impacts
Coastal storms account for 71 percent of recent U.S. disaster losses annually.
Each event costs roughly $500 million. With 14 events in a year, losses would total $7 billion per year.

From the Ocean Commission:
Coastal watershed counties representing 25 percent of the nation’s land area have continued to support approximately 52 percent of the U.S. population over the past three decades. Between 1970 and 2000, the population of coastal watershed counties grew by 37 million people and is projected to increase by another 21 million by 2015.   At that point, the U.S. coasts will have absorbed more than 58 million additional residents since 1970—more than 1.1 million a year. This steady influx of people into a relatively small area has already created coastal population densities that are on average two to three times higher than that of the nation as a whole.

Definition of coastal watershed:  counties with at least 15 percent of their land area in a coastal watershed. Based on this methodology, the United States has 673 coastal watershed counties: 285 along the Atlantic Ocean; 142 in the Gulf of Mexico region; 87 bordering the Pacific Ocean; and 159 fronting the Great Lakes.

Drought and fresh water availability are growing National Concerns
$6B-$8B in losses per year

Severe weather (atmosphere & space) continues to have major impacts on the Nation
Cause $11B in damage per year – 523 Casualties

Poor air quality has significant effect on Nation’s health and economy
Pollution causes up to 60,000 deaths and $150B in costs per year

## Vision Earth System Models Addressing Wide Range of Interdisciplinary Societal Needs 

**Coupled air, water, land models**
***Linked to key societal focus areas – disaster mitigation, energy distribution, health, ecosystems***
**Providing increasing specificity and accuracy**
***At longer ranges***
***Quantifying uncertainty***
***In digital form***

***Optimizing pro-active decision making nationally, regionally, and locally***

**Notes:**
We are guided by the NOAA vision.

This vision was created out of input from constituents and employees.

It’s important to note that our agency is addressing global environment challenges in an interrelated manner (matrix etc) just as the environment that we observe and forecast is inherently interrelated, 

And

We recognize the link between our planet’s ecology and our global economy.

## Environmental Services for 21st CenturyExamples

**Tornadoes**
***Warning lead times increase from 13 min to 1 hr for neighborhoods and communities***
**Virtually eliminating loss of life due to lack of warning**
**Severe Thunderstorms**
***Warning lead times increase from ~18 min to 2 hrs ***
**Improving air traffic routing--virtually                                            eliminating severe weather–related air                                               traffic delays**
**Winter Storms**
***Warnings days in advance***
**Improving commerce and                                                      transportation sectors**

## Environmental Services for 21st CenturyExamples

**Air Quality**
***Warnings about poor air quality 4-6 days in                                        advance for metropolitan areas***
**Power companies shift to alternate fuels**
**Alerts individuals at risk and health care                               professionals**
**Climate**
***Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and                                              precipitation indicating weekly departures from                                   normal issued months in advance***
**Communities and weather-sensitive                                                industries reduce risk**

## Environmental Services for 21st CenturyExamples

**Water Resource Information**** **
***Provide high-resolution water quantity,                                                  quality, and soil moisture forecasts***
**Emergency and resource managers                                            mitigate losses for conditions ranging                                      from droughts to floods**
**Ecosystem Impact Information**
***Provide forecasts of weather, water, climate impacts on ecosystems and scenarios of ecosystem response to management decisions***
**“****Management decisions reflect relationships among humans, nonhuman species, and the environments in which they live.”****             **
***	******	******Source: Report by U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy*****          **

## Achieving the VisionS&T Challenges

**Achieving this level of service excellence will require breakthroughs in S&T:**
***Data Assimilation (DA) and                                    Modeling***
***Observations***
***Dissemination***

## Challenges: DA and Modeling 

**Developing advanced and high resolution DA techniques**
***Mesoscale, microscale, better exploitation of satellite data***
**Improving models and linkages among weather, water, climate, and other environmental processes**
**Advancing probabilistic environmental                  information characterizing uncertainty **
**Improving model post-processing and                       decision-assistance techniques**

*Integrated Environmental Forecasts and Information*** **

## Challenges: Observations 

**Improving temporal, spatial, ****and spectral resolution at ****all scales **
**Obtaining observations of                                            new environmental elements**
**Sustaining data quality and ****timeliness**
**Integrating multi-purpose observing systems and networks within an extensible enterprise architecture**

*Observations when and where needed–integrated, adaptable, extensible, stable, continuous, and quality-assured*

## Challenges:  Dissemination 

**Keeping pace with need for more data and information **
**Expanding content and coverage**
**Implementing enterprise information delivery and         access systems**
**Providing data mining and decision assistance tools**

*Reach each person in the Nation*

## Meeting the ChallengeStrategies 

**Adopt broader view of Environmental Prediction**
***Weather, water, and climate forecasts linked to societal impacts***
**Implement integrated Earth Observation System -- GEOSS**
**Develop common Earth                                          system models, fully                                          exploiting ensemble and                                           other information                                          enhancement techniques**

## Meeting the ChallengeStrategies 

**Develop and sustain reliable enterprise IT architecture**
***Maximizes responsiveness -- promotes scientific interoperability***
**Accelerate transition from research to operations**
***Better plans, processes, and                                                architectures -- ESMF***
**Improve partnerships,                                        nationally and internationally**
***Increase collaborations                                                                      end-to-end -- WRF***

## Summary

**Advances in NWP over last 50 years have enabled great progress in operational weather forecasting**
**Advances in numerical earth-system prediction over next 50 years have potential to transform way society adapts to its changing environment**