# Presentation: 675820

## Brian McInerneyHydrologistNational Weather ServiceHydrologic OutlookFebruary 2005

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Temperature

## OctoberSalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 1.4 degrees warmer than average

## NovemberSalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 0.6 degrees cooler than average

## DecemberSalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 2.5 degrees warmer than average

## JanuarySalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 5.4 degrees warmer than average

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Precipitation

## Precipitation

## Utah and neighboring statesSeasonal Precipitation 2005 Water Year

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Water Supply Forecast

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes

- Much Above Normal
- Above Normal
- Normal
- Below Normal
- Much Below Normal

- February 1st 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
- Utah Area River Basins

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Bear River Basin**

- Logan

- 97%

- Bear River

- Bear Lake

- Woodruff

- 107%

- Ut/Wy
- Stateline

- 115%

- Blacksmith Fork

- Hyrum

- 104%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Weber River Basin**

- Pineview Res.

- 105%

- Gateway

- 111%

- East Canyon Res.

- 103%

- Ogden River

- Lost Creek Res.

- 97%

- Weber River

- Chalk Creek

- 118%

- Oakley

- 118%

- Rockport Res.

- 119%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Six Creeks River Basin**

- Jordan River

- Little Cottonwood Creek

- 125%

- Big Cottonwood Creek

- 134%

- Mill Creek

- 100%

- Parleys Creek

- 105%

- Dell Fk.

- 106%

- City Creek

- 80%

- Emigration Ck.

- 82%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Provo River Basin**

- Utah Lake

- Woodland

- 117%

- Jordanelle Res

- 119%

- Deer Creek Res

- 119%

- American Fork

- 150%

- Castilla

- 94%

- 108%

- Provo River

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Green River Basin**

- Lake Powell Res.

- 113%

- Green River

- 104%

- Price River

- Strawberry Res.

- 127%

- Starvation Res.

- 127%

- Scofield Res.

- 97%

- Colorado River

- Duchesne

- 146%

- Myton

- 177%

- Upper Stillwater

- 152%

- Randlett

- 197%

- Moon Lake

- 154%

- Tabiona

- 124%

- Red Fleet Res.

- 143%

- Flaming Gorge Res.

- 97%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Sevier River Basin**

- Hatch

- 255%

- Kingston

- 230%

- 218%

- Cedar City

- 290%

- Sevier River East Fork

- Piute Res.

- 210%

- Minersville

- 145%

- Beaver River

- Beaver

- 148%

- Clear Creek

- Sevier River

- Sevier

- 159%

- Gunnison

- 168%

- Salina Creek

- Ephraim Creek

- Sevier Lake

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Virgin River Basin**

- Santa Clara River

- Virgin River North Fork

- Virgin River East Fork

- Pine Valley

- 255%

- Littlefield, AZ

- 253%

- Virgin

- 238%

- Hurricane

- 280%

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Long Range Forecast

## El Nino ConditionsJanuary 11th 2005

## Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures 

- Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures** **

**Longitude**

**Time**

- Departures increased substantially in the central equatorial Pacific during July.
-  The warmth in the central equatorial Pacific expanded eastward during July-October.
-  The warmth in the equatorial Pacific has persisted during November 2004-January 2005.

## Evolution of SST Departure Patterns in the Last 4 Weeks

- During January 2005 positive SST anomalies persisted throughout the central equatorial Pacific, where anomalies of greater than +1°C were observed. The pattern of SST anomalies indicates that a mid-Pacific warm (El Niño**)** episode has developed.

## Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

- Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

- Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction (updated 20 January 2005).

## Summary

- Excessive snowpack’s remain in the Virgin, Sevier, and Green river basins
- At this time, the flood potential is heightened for these areas
- This could change depending on the spring climate
- Soil moisture is much improved over last year
- Approximately two months remaining in snow collection season
- Southern Utah mountain should expect normal to above runoff volumes
- Wasatch mountains have equal chance of producing above or below normal volumes this spring

## Contact Information

- This presentation can be found at:
- _http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Saltlake/river/presentations_
- Additional Information
- Contact
- Brian McInerney
- Hydrologist
- National Weather Service
- 801-971-2033 c
- brian.mcinerney@noaa.gov