# Presentation: 497476

##  BSAI Plan Team Members (12 Members)

- NMFS	   	--	Loh-Lee Low
- 			Mike Sigler
- 			Grant Thompson
- 			Lowell Fritz
- 			Andy Smoker
- USF&W  	--	Kathy Kuletz
- ADF&G 	--	Ivan Vining
- 			Kristin Mabrey
- Univ.Alaska	--	Brenda Norcross
- WDF&W	--	Farron Wallace
- Halibut Comm--	Bill Clark

** ****BSAI Plan Team Members**** (12 Members)**

##  Total U.S.Landings4.9 million mt (1998-2001)

##  Alaska Landings2.5 million mt  (1998-2001)

##  Alaska Groundfish Landings2.0 million mt (1998-2001)

##  Ex-Vessel Value of Alaska Landings2.5 million mt  (1998-2001 Average)Average Annual Ex-Vessel value = $822 Million

## Bering Sea-Aleutians Groundfish Catch25 Year History (in thousands of mt)

## Exploitable Biomass

- By
- Major Species Groups

## BSAI Exploitable BiomassYr 2003 Total = 19.66 MMT

## BSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassYr 2003 Total = 4.88 MMT

## BSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassYr 2002 Total = 596,000 MT

## Estimated ABCs

- By
- Major Species Groups

## BSAI Groundfish Complex ABCs Yr 2003 Total = 3.33 MMT(Up 147,000 mt from 2002)

## BSAI Flatfish Complex ABCYr 2003 Total = 559,880 MT

## BSAI Rockfish Complex ABCsYr 2003 Total = 24,663 MT

## DescriptionSpecies-by-Species

## Assessment Theme 

- ABC = Biomass x  Exploitation Rate
- 1.  Determine Biomass from
- 	**-- Surveys....Hydroacoustics, Trawls**
**	****-- Models.....Age or Length-Structure Models**
- 2.  Determine Exploitation Rates
- 	--  F ***msy***
- 	--  F ***overfishing ....... *****Example** F ***35%***
- 	--  F ***abc***   ............... **Example** F ***40%***

## Assessment Theme 

- Fishing Rates chosen according to 6 Tiers of Data Quality (Pages 5-6 of SAFE Summary)
- Tier 1 -- reliable B, Bmsy, pdf of Fmsy
- Tier 2 -- reliable B, Bmsy, Fmsy, F35, F40
- Tier 3 –  reliable B, B40, F35, F40
- Tier 4 –  reliable B, F35, F40
- Tier 5 -- reliable B and M
- Tier 6 –- reliable Catch History Data

## EBS Pollock

## EBS Pollock AssessmentNotable Features

**1.  Year 2002 Surveys**
- 	**Bottom Trawl Biomass = 4.82 mmt, up 16%**
**	****EIT Survey Biomass = 3.6 mmt, up 18%**
**	**
**2.****	****Year 2002 Models**
- 	7** scenarios of Age-Structure Models, Used Model 1**
**	****Age3+ Biomass for 2003 = 11.8 mmt, up 6%**
**	**
**3. Recruitment**
- 	**1998 & 1999 Year Classes both Above Average**

## Aleutian Island Region Pollock Assessment

- 1.  Model don’t work, Not unit stock
- 2. Survey Biomass
- Year    Biomass
- 	1991	167,140
- 	1994	 77,503
- 	1997	 93,512
- 	2000	105,554
- 	2002	175,000
- 3. ABC = 0.75 * B2002
-      (Tier 5)

## Bogoslof Region PollockSurvey Biomass

## Bogoslof Region Pollock ABC

**1.  Plan Team Method  – Tier 5 ****	****	**
**	****ABC = Biomass x 0.75 M **
**	****	****ABC = 34,000 mt**
**2.  SSC Method – Use**** 2 mmt as Target Biomass**
**	****	****ABC = 4,070 mt**
**	**

## BSAI Pacific Cod

**96**

## Pacific Cod AssessmentNotable Features

**1.  Year 2002 Surveys**
**	****-- EBS Trawl Biomass = 617,000 t, down26%**
**2.  Year 2002 Model**
**	****-- Update of Last Year’s Model**
**	****-- Estimated 2003 Age 3+ Biomass = 1.68 mmt,  up 9%**
**3.  Recruitment**
**	****-- Year classes since 1992 have been below average**
**	****--  ****Except for above average 1996 & 1999 year classes**
**	****	**

## EBS Yellowfin Sole

## Yellowfin Sole AssessmentNotable Features

**1.  Survey Biomass**
**	****-- Relatively high biomass, doubled from 1975-79**
**	****-- Declining in recent years as strong year classes passes out of the population**
**	****2.  Models**
**	****-- Estimated 2003 Age 3+ Biomass = 1.55 mmt, down 1% **
**	****-- biomass is still high but definitely declining**
**	****3.****	****Recruitment**
**	****-- Lowered recruitment in last decade**

## EBS Greenland Turbot

## Greenland Turbot AssessmentNotable Features

**1.  Survey Biomass**
**	****-- EBS Trawl Biomass assess juveniles only**
**2.  Modeling**
**	****-- Yr 2003 Age 1+ biomass = 115,700 mt, down 5**
**	****-- biomass is generally low and relatively stable**
**3.****	****Recruitment**
**	****-- Generally Low recruitment in last 2 decades**

## EBS Arrowtooth Flounder

## EBS Rock Sole

## EBS Flathead Sole

## EBS Alaska Plaice

## Bering Sea/Aleutians POP

## POP AssessmentNotable Features

**1.  Present Assessment**
**	****-- Single Model to Combined Bering Sea/Aleutians Areas**
**2.  Biomass Trend**
**	****-- Rather Stable Trend in recent years after some rebuilding**
**Recruitment**
**	****-- Rather Poor Recruitment in recent years**

## Other Red Rockfish Notable Features

**1.  Other Red Rockfish Split into:**
**	****--  Northern**
**	****--  Rougheye/Shortraker**
**2.  Tier 5 ABC = Average 1991-2002 Survey Biomass x 0.75M**
**	****Stock****	****	****	****EBS****	****	****Aleutians**
**	****Northern****	****	****18 mt****	****	****6,6980 mt ****	****	****	****	****	****	****	****(99.7%)**
**	****Rougheye-Shortraker 137mt****	****   830 mt ****	****	****	****	****	****	****	****(85.8%)**
**	****	**

## Other Rockfish AssessmentsNotable Features

- 1.  	Presently Managed as a Complex
- 2.  	Author Recommend separating out Dusky Rockfish
- 	-- Catch rate maybe as high as 34%
- 3.	Plan Team disagree, maybe catch rate estimated high
- -- Noted survey biomass has not decreased
- 4.	Tier 5 ABC = Survey Biomass x 0.75 M	**	**
**	****	****Stock****	****Year****	****Survey Biomass****	****ABC**
**	****	**
**	****	****EBS****	****2002****	****	****18,000****	****	**** 960**
**	****	**
**	****	****AI****	****2002****	****	****15,000****	****	**** 634**
**	****	**

## Aleutian Islands Atka Mackerel

## Atka Mackerel AssessmentNotable Features

- 1.  New Assessemnt Model – AD Model Builder
- 2.  Authors ABC Considerations
- 	-- Survey Biomass 2002 = 773,000 mt
- 		up 51% from 2000 survey; Shows high variability
- 	-- Yr 2003 Model biomass = 358,000 mt,
- 		 down 7 % from Yr 2002;
- 	-- Max Permissible F40 would yield ABC = 82,800 mt
- 	-- 1998 Year Class showing strength
- 3.  Plan team favors using average F over last 5 years
-    --	 ABC = 51,000 mt
-    --  slight increase over 2002 ABC of 49,000 mt
- 4.  ABC apportioned by area using weighted last 4 survey biomass

## Sablefish-all areas

## Sablefish AssessmentNotable Features

**1.  Longline Survey Abundance**
**	****-- Increased 5% in numbers and 7% in weight **
**2.  Modeling**
**	****-- Abundance now appears moderate**
**	****	****and increased from recent lows**
**3.****	****ABC according to Tier 3b**
**	****-- Max Permissible F **40 adjusted** gives ABC = 25,400 mt**
**	****-- Team and Author recommend ABC = 18,400 mt**
**	****	****Simulation shows spawning biomass will have low ****	****probability of dropping below historic low biomass**
**4.****	****ABC is  apportioned by 5-year exponential weighting of abundance indices by region: EBS, AI & GOA**

## Squid AssessmentNotable Features

**1.****	****Squid ABC is calculated under Tier 6**
**	****...****. average catch from 1977-1995**** **
**2.****	****Begin managing by Major Taxonomic Groups**
**	**a.  For Sculpins & Skate
- 	     .... ABC = Tier 5 Situation = 0.75M * Biomass
-         b. For Sharks and Octopus
- 	   ..... ABC = Tier 6 = Average 1977-1995

## Summary (From Table 4)(Pollock) 

| Stock | Biomass (mt) | ABC (mt) | ABC Change
(2003 from 2002) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pollock, EBS | 11,100,000 | 2,330,000 | Up 10 % |
| Pollock, AI | 175,000 | 39,400 | Up 65% |
| Pollock, Bogoslof | 232,000 | 34,000
 | Down 6% |

## Summary ( fromTable 4) (Cod and Sablefish) 

| Stock | Biomass (mt) | ABC (mt) | ABC Change
(2003 from 2002) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pacific Cod, BSAI | 1,680,000 | 223,000 | Same |
| Sablefish, EBS | 31,000 | 2,550 | Up 32 % |
| Sablefish, AI | 39,000 | 2,740 | Up 7 % |

## Summary ( fromTable 4) (Flatfishes) 

| Stock | Biomass (mt) | ABC (mt) | ABC Change
(2002 fr 2001) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| YellFn. Sole | 1,554,000 | 114,000 | Down 2 % |
| Grn. Turbot | 112,000 | 5,880 | Down 27 % |
| Arrow. Fl | 597,000 | 112,000 | Down 1 % |
| Rock Sole | 877,000 | 110,000 | Down 51 % |
| Flathead S | 550,000 | 66,000 | Down 20 % |
| Alaska Plaice | 1,083,000 | 137,000 | Down 4 % |
| Other Flats | 107,000 | 15,000 |  Down 17% |

## Summary ( fromTable 4) (Rockfishes) 

| Stock | Biomass (mt) | ABC (mt) | ABC Change
(2003 fr 2002) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| POP, BSAI | 375,000 | 15,100 | Up 2 % |
| Northern R | 156,000 | 7,000 | Up 4% |
| ShortRaker-Rougheye | 32,000 | 967 | Down 6% |
| Other R, EBS | 18,000 | 960 | Up 165% |
| Other R, AI | 15,000 | 634 |  Down 6% |
|  |  |  |  |

## Summary ( fromTable 4) (Atka Mackerel & Other Species) 

| Stock | Biomass (mt) | ABC (mt) | ABC Change
(2003 fr 2002) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Atka Mackerel | 358,300 | 51,000 | Up 4 % |
| Squid | NA | 1,970 | No Change |
| Other Species | 695,000 | 60,800 | Up 55 % |

## 2003 Female Spawning Biomass versus B40 Target Levels

## 4 Cases when Max Permissible ABC was Adjusted Down by Plan Team 

| Stock | Maximum Permissible ABC (mt) | Recommend PT ABC (mt) | Main Reasons for Adjustment |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  |  |  |
| Pacific Cod | 278,000 | 223,000 | Risk-Adverse Optimization |
| Green. Turbot | 17,800 | 5,880 | Low B & R |
| Sablefish, All | 25,400 | 18,400 | Simulated Catch |
| Atka Mackerel | 82,800 | 51,000 | Average 5-Yr F |

## Spawning Biomass – Pacific Cod 

## Spawning Biomass – Greenland Turbot 

## Spawning Biomass – Sablefish 

## Projected Spawning Biomass – Atka Mackerel

## Spawning Biomass – Yellowfin Sole 

## Spawning Biomass – Arrowtooth Flounder 

## Spawning Biomass – Flathead Sole 

## Spawning Biomass – Alaska Plaice 

## Spawning Biomass – Pacific Ocean Perch 

## Adjustments to ABCs- due to Ecosystems

**The Team was unable to isolate individual cases where ABC adjustments are needed to be made to address ecosystem concerns.**

## BSAI Groundfish ComplexYr 2000 to Yr 2003

- Exploitable Biomass
-  19.8 mmt for Yr 2003
-  Near Historical High
- ABC
-   3.33 mmt for Yr 2003
-   Near Historical High

## Year 2003 Summary

- ABC = 3,331,001 mt
- TAC = 2,000,000 mt

## 5 Cases when Plan Team ABC is different from SSC’s ABC

| Stock | Plan Team ABC (mt) | SSC’s Recommend ABC (mt) | Main Reasons for Adjustment |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pollock, Bogoslof | 34,000 | 4,070 | SSC Adjusted F rate |
| Sable fish
(EBS & AI) | 18,400
(2,550 & 2,740) | 20,900
(2,900 & 3,100) | PT – constant C SSC–similar trend |
| Northern Rockfish | 7,000 | 121 EBS
6980 AI | Reliability of Survey Biomass |
| Atka Mackerel | 51,000 | 63,000 | PT – Ave 5yr F
SSC – constant buffer |
| Other Species | 60,800 | 43,300 |  |

## From Harvest Strategy (F40) Report

- From Page 121
- “It is easy enough to say that a management system could be made more protective of ecosystem properties.......
- But current knowledge does not allow precise scientific specification of what margin or threshold would be appropriate to achieve what level of protection of various ecosystem properties”

## From Harvest Strategy (F40) Report

- From Page 121
- “The decision to use F40% rather than F35% was deliberately protective, and was intended to function as a buffer against several sources of uncertainty”
- “ Nevertheless, it is not clear how much of the margin between F35% and F40% was ‘allocated’ to ecosystem considerations”

## ABC Rates for Rockfishes 

| Stock | Biomass (mt) | ABC (mt) | ABC Rate |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| POP, BSAI | 375,000 | 15,100 | 4.03 % |
| Northern R | 156,000 | 7,000 | 4.49 % |
| ShortRaker-Rougheye | 32,000 | 967 | 3.02  % |
| Other R, EBS | 18,000 | 960 | 5.33 % |
| Other R, AI | 15,000 | 634 | 4.22 % |
|  |  |  |  |

## Adjust for  Climatic Regime Shifts

**3 Regimes **
**Years 1965 - 77**
**Years 1978 - 88**
**Period 1989 - 97 ?**
**Another Regime ? **
**Earlier Regimes**
**1899-1924**
**1925-47**
**1948-76**

**?**

## End of Slide Presentation

## Utilization of Resources 

## BSAI Groundfish ComplexYr 2000 to Yr 2003

- Exploitable Biomass
-  19.8 mmt for Yr 2003
-  Near Historical High
- ABC
-   3.289 mmt for Yr 2003
-   Near Historical High

## Slide 69

## Spawning Biomass

## Spawning Biomass -- EBS Pollock 

## Pacific Halibut Catch25 Year History (in thousands of mt)

## Gulf of Alaska Groundfish Catch25 Year History (in thousands of mt)

## EBS PollockLong-Term Biomass Trend

## Year-class estimates -- EBS Pollock

- 78

- 82

- 89

- 92

- 96

- 98-99

## BSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassYr 2003 Total = 4.88 MMT, down

## BSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassYr 2003 Total = 596,000 MT