# Presentation: 540481

## Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

**Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service**
**AHPS**

- Overview

## AHPS is the National Weather Service’s frontline solution to provide improved river, flood and water information across America.

## Disaster Losses

**Disaster Losses**
**...****Flooding is a significant cause**

## AHPS Will Better Answer the Following Questions:
-	How high will the river rise?
-	When will the river reach its peak?
-	Where will the flooding occur?
-	How long will the flood last?
-	How long will the drought continue?
-	How certain is the forecast?

- -	How high will the river rise?
- -	When will the river reach its peak?
- -	Where will the flooding occur?
- -	How long will the flood last?
- -	How long will the drought continue?
- -	How certain is the forecast?

## AHPS includes...

-   -	More accurate forecasts over all time scales
-   -	Increased warning lead time
-   -	Longer forecast horizons
-   -	Information to assist risk-based decision making
-   -	Nationally consistent access to products and information
-   -	Easier to use graphic products

**$766 million estimated annual recurring benefit**
- (National Hydrologic Warning Council study)

## Annual Projected  Benefits in Millions of Dollars

**Annual Projected  Benefits in Millions of Dollars**

- National Hydrologic Warning Council 2002 Report: "Use and Benefits of the NWS River and Flood Forecasts"

## AHPS service delivery levels
Basic
Long-term probability information
Enhanced river level or water supply forecasts
Full
Enhanced flash flood warnings
Short- and medium-term probability information
Low flow and drought products
With partnered data sets
Flood forecast maps

- Basic
- Long-term probability information
- Enhanced river level or water supply forecasts
- Full
- Enhanced flash flood warnings
- Short- and medium-term probability information
- Low flow and drought products
- With partnered data sets
- Flood forecast maps

## AHPS builds upon the National Weather Service’s long history of around-the-clock forecasting excellence bridging past success with new sciences and technologies of the 21st century.

- AHPS builds upon the National Weather Service’s long history of around-the-clock forecasting excellence bridging past success with new sciences and technologies of the 21st century.

- .

- .

## AHPS makes optimal use of a spectrum of Observing Tools

- Geo-Stationary Satellite

- Doppler Radars

- Automated Surface Observations

- Stream Gages

- .

- Automated Rain Gages

- SNOTEL

- Remote Sensing

- Cooperative Observers

## AHPS Includes State of the Science Forecasting Tools

- More Accurate Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction Radar Map

**AHPS Includes State of the Science **_**Forecasting**_** Tools**

- .

- Distributed Hydrologic Modeling

- Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

- Inundation Mapping

## Sample New Products

**Probabilistic**
**Product**

**Hydrograph**
**Product**

**Flood**
**Forecast Map**

**Sample New Products**

## AHPS will better meet the hydrologic needs of the country and will enable the National Weather Service to increase forecast skill and flood and flash flood warning lead time.

## AHPS provides emergency and water resource managers the information they need to make more informed risk-based decisions to optimize the use of their resources

## Folsom Reservoir, CA:  “AHPS forecasts would reduce flood damages by 79% when compared to non-AHPS forecasts.”

- Folsom Reservoir, CA:  “*AHPS forecasts would reduce flood damages by 79% when compared to non-AHPS forecasts.”*

- National Hydrologic Warning Council 2002 Report: "Use and Benefits of the NWS River and Flood Forecasts"

## Saylorville Reservoir, Iowa:  “AHPS forecasts would reduce annual flood damages by 35% when compared to non-AHPS forecasts.”

- National Hydrologic Warning Council 2002 Report: "Use and Benefits of the NWS River and Flood Forecasts"

## AHPS will improve hydrologic forecasts at thousands of locations nationwide

## AHPS includes the likelihood a river will reach a specific height.

## AHPS includes flood forecast mapping in urban and other high impact areas... 

- ... enabling emergency managers to be more proactive and “fight” a river against the ravages of a flood using a suite of easy to read graphical decisional tools.

## Who benefits from AHPS?

**America Benefits **

- Dam Operators

- Emergency Managers

- Municipal Water Suppliers

- Riverboat Pilots

- Recreationists

- Farmers/Irrigators

- .

## AHPS enables the navigation community to better plan with confidence and optimize the efficiency of barge and shipping operations saving millions of dollars each year.

- AHPS enables the _navigation community_ to better plan with confidence and optimize the efficiency of barge and shipping operations saving millions of dollars each year.

## AHPS allows recreational users to stay out of harms way.

## Because every minute counts...

- ...AHPS provides the information community leaders and business owners  need to make better life and cost saving decisions about evacuating people or moving property _before_ a flood occurs.

## AHPS  provides valuable water supply information to water resource managers.

- AHPS  provides valuable water supply information to water resource managers.

***What others are saying about AHPS***

*"It's a valuable emergency management tool. It gives us immediate, online information that helps us to do our job.“*  (Ellen Gordon – Administrator Iowa Emergency Management)

## What others are saying about AHPS

*“**AHPS provides advantages not available before.  During one flow event, AHPS forecasts provided the needed factor of safety to assure that the motors could  be reinstalled in the (Mississippi River) locks and dams 48 hours in advance of original plans, saving the navigation industry $300,000.”**  **(*William H. Koellner, retired water control chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers District Office in Rock Island, Ill.)

## “We are committed to working closely with our partners and customers to ensure their hydrologic information needs are met.”  (Greg Mandt, Director Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services)

## “Our commitment is to water-proof the nation and support the economy with the best water information science and technology has to offer.”  (Glenn Austin, Chief of the NWS Hydrologic Services Division)

## AHPS allows emergency managers and the river community to plan for and respond aggressively to the threat of floods, droughts and everything in between.

## For more information:  www.nws.noaa.gov/water

- Email: hsd.ahps@noaa.gov

- .