# Presentation: 611685

## The Northeast Natural Gas Market in 2030

***LNG EXPRESS CONFERENCE***** **
**Boston, Massachusetts**
**September 21, 2006**
**William Trapmann**
**Natural Gas Analysis Team Leader**
**Energy Information Administration (EIA)**
***william.trapmann@eia.doe.gov***

**www.eia.doe.gov**

**Notes:**
Over the next 25 years, the Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. natural gas consumption will increase by almost 5 trillion cubic feet, or more than 20 percent.  But domestic natural gas production is expected to increase by only 2 trillion cubic feet.   So, that’s why we’re here today—to discuss one way to fill the gap.  
The Energy Information Administration is an independent analytical and statistical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on changes in laws and regulations and does not speak for any particular point of view on energy policy. Thus, our views should not be construed as representing those of the Department or the Administration. 
Assumptions are critical to any forecast. The projections are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given certain assumptions. The projections are business-as-usual forecasts, given known technology and technological trends, demographic trends, and current laws and regulations.
One of the key assumptions underlying our forecast is that all current laws and regulations remain as enacted. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards and sections of existing legislation requiring funds that have not been appropriated are not reflected in the projections.
Today, I will be focusing on the reference case projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006, one of dozens of cases we publish every year. After I talk about the national projections, I’ll talk about where in the world the LNG will come from, and finally look at supply and demand in New England.

## Outline

**EIA’s Long-term Energy Market Outlook**
**Natural Gas Supply Outlook**
**World Natural Gas Resources**
**Northeast Outlook And Infrastructure**
**The Outlook for LNG Imports**

## EIA’s Long-Term Outlook

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030

**U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel****, 1960-2030**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

**Natural Gas**

**Petroleum**

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

**Source: EIA, *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***

**Projections**

**History**

**Coal**

**Notes:**
Let’s start with a look at the overall U.S. energy picture. Total primary energy consumption in the AEO2006 reference case is projected to increase from about 100 quadrillion Btu in 2004 to 134 quadrillion Btu in 2030.

By 2030 consumption of all major types of energy is expected to grow. Fossil fuels account for 88 percent of the total growth, with coal use increasing by 53 percent, petroleum by 34 percent, and natural gas by 20 percent over that period. 

Petroleum is the number one source of U.S. energy and that’s expected to continue through 2030.  But last year—after more than 15 years as the number two source of U.S. energy--natural gas slipped into the number three position behind coal. The increase in coal consumption occurs primarily in the electric power sector, with strong growth in electricity demand and favorable economics for baseload coal-fired capacity.  More than half of the increase in coal consumption is expected after 2020, when higher natural gas prices make coal the fuel choice for most new power plants. By 2030, the United States is projected to consume about 25 percent more coal than natural gas.

Now let’s move on to the natural gas picture.

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030

**U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports****, 1960-2030 **
**(trillion cubic feet)**

**15%**

**21%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Source: EIA,***** Annual Energy Outlook 2006***

**History**

**Projections**

**22.4**

**18.8**

**26.9**

**20.8**

**Average Wellhead Price   **
** ****(dollars per thousand cubic feet)**
**                                   ****2004    2030 **
**2004 Dollars            $5.49    $5.92**
**Nominal Dollars      $5.49  $11.20**

**Notes:**
In AEO2006, domestic gas production is expected to increase more slowly than consumption over the forecast, rising from 18.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2004 to 21.6 Tcf in 2019, before falling off slightly by 2030. Growing production in the early years is supported by relatively high wellhead gas prices and improvements in technologies, particularly for unconventional gas.  In the latter half of the forecast, these are not enough to counter the decline in remaining resources, and domestic production is projected to decline. 

The projected pattern of the total gas consumption largely reflects the ups and downs of the projection for natural gas consumption by electric generators.  Consumption is forecast to climb from 22.4 Tcf in 2004 to 27.0 Tcf in 2024, before falling off slightly by 2030. By 2030 total natural gas consumption is expected to be 21 percent of U.S. energy primary consumption.
The difference between consumption and production is made up by increasing use of imports. In AEO2006, net imports grow from 3.4 Tcf in 2004 to 5.6 Tcf in 2030. Declining pipeline imports are affected by the same decline in resources as domestic production. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the important growing supply source which is expected to make up the difference.  The inset graph shows you the difference between the two import sources in 2030.  

The national average wellhead price is projected to reach $5.92 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2004 dollars in 2030.  In current dollars that’s equivalent to $11.20 per thousand cubic feet.  

## U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2030         (trillion cubic feet)

**History**

**Industrial***

**Electric Generators**

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Transportation****

**Projections**

-  *** Includes lease and plant fuel**

**** Includes pipeline fuel**

**10.0**

** ****6.4**

** ****5.6**

** ****4.0**

** ****0.9**

**8.3**

** ****5.5**

** ****3.1**

** ****0.6**

**4.9**

**Sources: EIA,***** Annual Energy Outlook 2006; *****EIA, *****Natural Gas Annual 2004***

**Notes:**
Now let’s look more closely at U.S. natural gas consumption.

For the most part, residential, commercial, and industrial consumption is projected to increase steadily over the forecast period. Industrial consumption (including lease and plant fuel) remains the largest consuming sector and is projected to increase from 8.3 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 10.0 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Natural gas consumption increases in all the major industrial sectors, with the exception of the refining industry. The increase in industrial consumption accounts for 38 percent of the increase in natural gas consumption from 2005 to 2030.

Natural gas consumption in the electric generation sector peaks at 7.5 trillion cubic feet in 2019, then starts falling as new coal-fired electricity generation increasingly displaces natural-gas-fired generation, declining to 6.4 trillion cubic feet by 2030.  Growth in natural gas consumption for power generation is restrained by its high price compared to coal. 

Now, let’s look more closely at natural gas supply, starting with production.

## Natural Gas Supply Outlook

## LNG Is Expected to Represent A Growing Share of U.S. Supply Over the Long-Term

**LNG Is Expected to Represent A Growing Share of U.S. Supply Over the Long-Term**

**History**

**Projections**

- Source: EIA, *Short Term Energy Outlook*, August 2006, and 2006 *Annual Energy Outlook.*

**Long-Term**

**Near-Term**

**Notes:**
Imports contributed roughly 16 percent of total natural gas supply in 2005, but are expected to make up about 21 percent of total supply in 2030.

Over the long-term: Net imports of natural gas are projected to increase from 3.6 Tcf in 2005 to almost 5.6 trillion cubic feet in 2030. 

The increase in imports is attributed to LNG, which increases enough to offset significant declines in pipeline imports from Canada. 

Total net LNG imports to the United States are projected to increase from 0.63 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 4.36 trillion cubic feet in 2030.

By 2030, LNG imports are expected to equal more than 16 percent of total U.S. gas supply.

----------------------------------------------------------
Net imports from Canada are expected to decline from 2005 levels of 3.69 Tcf to about 2.1 Tcf in 2015. 
After 2015, because of reserve depletion effects and growing domestic demand in Canada, net U.S. imports are projected to decline to 1.22 trillion cubic feet in 2030. 

Net imports from Canada are projected to provide about 5 percent of total U.S. supply in 2030, compared to 17 percent of total supply in 2005.

## U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production, 1990 – 2030 (trillion cubic feet)

**History**

**Projections**

**Associated/Dissolved**

**Nonassociated Offshore**

**Nonassociated**
**Onshore Conventional**

**Onshore Unconventional**

**Alaska**

**Source: EIA, *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***

**9.5 **

**4.2**

**2.8**

**2.3**

**2.1**

**4.8**

**7.5 **

**2.4**

**3.4**

**0.4**

**Notes:**
Unconventional gas--that is, tight sandstone, coal bed, and shale gas--is projected to be of great importance in satisfying our future demand for natural gas, representing 45 percent of domestic production in 2030.  Unconventional production, largely from the Rocky Mountain region, is the only category projected to increase over the forecast, with the exception of Alaska production.  While onshore, non-associated, conventional production is projected to decline, it is still expected to account for more than 20 percent of domestic production in 2030.

While the hurricanes last summer contributed to the delay in the start-up of many projects in the Gulf of Mexico, some large projects are still expected to come online around the 2015 time period, a little later than was previously anticipated.  A pick up in offshore oil production in the Gulf after 2010 is expected to boost associated-dissolved gas production until oil production starts to again decline.

Presuming agreements on the course of the Alaska pipeline can be reached in relatively short order, natural gas is projected to be transported to the lower 48 States in 2015 on completion of the project.  An expansion in the capacity limits through additional compression is projected shortly thereafter. 

Now, let’s look at the other source of supply, which is imports.

## Net U.S. Imports of Natural Gas, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

**Net U.S. Imports of Natural Gas, 1990-2030**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

**Canada**

**LNG**

**Mexico**

**Projections**

**History**

**4.36**

**1.77**

**-0.56**

**Source: EIA, *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***

- Net U.S. Imports of Natural Gas, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

**Notes:**
Although total natural gas imports increase over the forecast, the outlook is very different by source.

The entire increase in U.S. imports is expected to come from LNG.  Net imports of LNG are expected to increase from 631 billion cubic feet in 2005 to 3.1 trillion cubic feet in 2015.  Construction of new LNG terminals slows after 2015, and by 2030 net imports reach 4.4 tcf. By 2030, net LNG imports are expected to equal 16 percent of total U.S. gas consumption, compared with 3 percent in 2004.  Net LNG imports are expected to rise from 17 percent of net imports in 2004 to 78 percent in 2030. 

A decline in Canada’s non-Arctic conventional natural gas production is only partially offset by its Arctic and unconventional production. Although a MacKenzie Delta natural gas pipeline is expected to begin transporting natural gas in 2011, net imports from Canada fall from 3.2 tcf in 2004 to 1.5 tcf in 2019.  After 2019, net imports from Canada begin to increase, as unconventional production from coal beds eventually offsets the decline in conventional production.  The wildcard in Canada is the potential gas production from tight sandstone formations, which is not reflected in this projection.

Net exports of U.S. natural gas to Mexico decrease from 2004 through 2011, as new LNG terminals are built in Mexico.  After 2011, growth in Mexican consumption is expected to exceed the country’s capacity to produce or import natural gas.  This projection is based on the assumption that the constitution in Mexico will not be changed to allow for foreign investment in oil and gas development.

## U.S. LNG Imports, 1990-2025(trillion cubic feet)

**History**

**Projections**

**Existing Onshore Terminals**

**New Terminals**

**Source: EIA,***** Annual Energy Outlook 2006***

**Notes:**
The increase in LNG imports comes both from expansion at existing sites and from the construction of new facilities.

Volumes imported by existing onshore terminals are expected to remain above those imported by new terminals throughout the forecast period.  Imports by the new terminals reach 1.1 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and then increase steadily to 1.7 trillion cubic in 2030.  Imports at the existing onshore terminals reach 1.9 Tcf in 2015 and then rise to 2.7 Tcf in 2030.  So by 2030, expansions at existing LNG terminals are projected to result in these terminals providing just over 60 percent of total U.S. LNG imports.

It should be noted that this forecast is based on a U.S. model of natural gas supply and demand, rather than a world model.  Although the model takes into account new regasification terminals in Mexico and Canada, it does not fully capture changes in supply and demand for LNG in world markets. 

It should also be noted that projected domestic LNG imports are particularly sensitive to future prices.   If natural gas prices on a sustained basis are higher than predicted, we should see higher gas production levels and reduced natural gas consumption, which causes a reduction in total natural gas imports and LNG imports in particular. 

## Annual Energy Outlook 2006 reference case indicates that through 2030....

**Imports are expected to play an important role in U.S. natural gas markets, accounting for 21 percent of total U.S. natural gas consumption in 2030, compared with 15 percent in 2004**
**LNG imports are projected to grow sevenfold, from 650 billion cubic feet in 2004 to 4.4 trillion cubic feet in 2030**
**The most rapid growth in LNG import capacity will occur over the next decade, with peak annual capacity increasing from 1.4 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 4.9 trillion cubic feet in 2015**
**Construction of new terminals is expected to slow after 2015 as rising natural gas prices limit consumption, especially in the electric generators sector**
**Peak annual LNG import capacity in 2030 is projected to be 5.8 trillion cubic feet**

## World Natural Gas Resources

## World Natural Gas Reserves, 2005(trillion cubic feet)

**World Natural Gas Reserves, 2005**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

- World Natural Gas Reserves, 2005(trillion cubic feet)

**Notes:**
The first question to ask is:  Where is the gas?  

According to trade reports, world reserves of natural gas total 6,113 trillion cubic feet, as of January 1, 2006 with the United States holding around 3 percent of the total. This is the energy equivalent of more than a trillion barrels of crude oil. 

Recoverable volumes are available on all continents (516 Tcf is for both North and South America). But the bulk of natural gas reserves, roughly 73 percent, are in the Middle East and Russia. Approximately 8 percent of the world’s gas reserves are located in the Western Hemisphere, and of that figure 193 trillion cubic feet are in the United States.  

Despite high rates of increase in natural gas consumption, particularly over the past decade, most regional reserves-to-production ratios have remained high.  The worldwide reserves-to-production ratio in 2005 is estimated at 67 years. Central and South America has a reserves-to-production ratio of 55 years, the FSU 77 years, and Africa 97 years. The Middle East’s reserves-to-production ratio exceeds 100 years. 

The next question is:  Where is the United States likely to get its LNG?

## World LNG Movements, 2004(billion cubic feet)

**Source: EIA, Office of Energy Markets and End Use**
**(http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gastrade.html)**

**769**

**314**

**426**

**650**

**193**

**258**

**212**

**281**

**252**

**334**

**110**

**155**

**237**

**29**

**462**

**59**

**12**

**3**

**42**

**12**

**170**

**36**

**138**

**22**

**120**

**30**

**232**

**131**

- USA

- Canada

- Mexico

- S. & Cent. America

- Europe & Eurasia

- Middle East

- Africa

- Asia Pacific

**109**

- (Line thickness indicates  volume)

**LNG imports into Asia/Pacific**

**LNG imports into Europe & Eurasia**

**LNG imports into North & South America**

**17**

**15**

**20**

**42**

**19**

**11**

**43**

**6**

**93**

**55**

**3**

**8**

**3**

**7**

**6**

**9**

**18**

**49**

**3**

**3**

**213**

**Notes:**
More than 70 percent of U.S. LNG imports came from Trinidad & Tobago in 2004 with another 19 percent coming from Algeria.  The remaining U.S. LNG imports were received from Malaysia, Australia, Nigeria, Qatar, and Oman. The United States was the third largest importer of LNG in 2004, behind Japan and South Korea.  In 2004 the United States accounted for 10 percent of the world’s LNG consumption.

With considerable expansion of liquefaction capacity both currently underway and planned for the future, diversification in sources of supply for the United States is expected to grow. In 2005, Egypt began exporting LNG for the first time. Norway and Equatorial Guinea have capacity under construction and will soon join the list of countries exporting LNG to the United States. Russia has its first liquefaction project, which is targeted at non-U.S. markets, under construction in the Pacific.  However, Russia is also planning liquefaction capacity in the Atlantic, with the goal of reaching North American markets.  Yemen, Venezuela, Peru, Angola, and Iran also have plans to become exporters of LNG, although only Yemen currently has plans to target the U.S. market. 

On the demand side, Spain, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom are expected to be the main U.S. competitors for LNG in the Atlantic Basin.  Over the past year, for example, we’ve seen that poor water resource conditions for hydropower generation have caused Spain to bid away LNG cargoes from the United States. According to Wood Mackenzie, U.S. demand for LNG in 2015 will be 20 percent of world demand, outpaced only by Japan. 

Now, how does this world picture affect the Northeast?

## U.S. LNG Imports by Country, 1992-2005(billion cubic feet)

**Nigeria**

**Qatar**

**Other**

**Australia**

**Trinidad and Tobago**

**Algeria**

**Source: Energy Information Administration**

**Oman**

**Malaysia**

**Egypt**

*** Estimate**

*****

**Notes:**
  Algeria has been the predominant supplier of LNG to the United States until 1999 when Trinidad & Tobago opened their liquefaction facility.  
  Trinidad & Tobago has expanded its role to become the supplier of at least 70 percent of U.S. LNG imports in the past 3 years.  
  This graph supports the feasibility of receiving volumes from across the globe.  The US has received volumes even from Australia in a number of years.
  These volumes were attracted to the US markets when US prices were well below current levels.  

## Northeast Outlook and Infrastructure

**Notes:**
Now let’s look more closely at the situation in the Northeast.  

## Northeast Interstate Pipeline Capacity, November 2005(million cubic feet per day)

**Northeast Interstate Pipeline Capacity, November 2005**
**(million cubic feet per day)**

**Note: Corridor capacity levels are approximate.**

_**216 MMcf/d**_

_**52 MMcf/d**_

_**1,195 MMcf/d**_

_**445 MMcf/d**_

_**1,820 MMcf/d**_

_**7,173 MMcf/d**_

_**628 MMcf/d**_

_**1,953 MMcf/d**_

_**1,100 MMcf/d**_

**Source: Energy Information Administration GasTran System**

- Northeast Interstate Pipeline Capacity, November 2005(million cubic feet per day)

**Notes:**
Most natural gas supply feeding into the Northeast comes from the Southwestern United States and from Appalachia. Texas Eastern Transmission, Transcontinental Gas Pipeline, Columbia Gas, and Tennessee Gas Pipeline provide transportation from Texas and Louisiana.   Algonquin Gas Transmission is the primary transporter of natural gas into and within New England. 

Canadian supplies play an important role in supply to New England. One-third of the interstate natural gas pipeline capacity comes directly into the six New England States from Canada. The Iroquois Pipeline system provides additional Canadian capacity via New York State. 

LNG is an important part of the New England region’s overall gas supply and is a critical component of its natural gas supply during periods of peak consumption.  In 2004, LNG represented about 20 percent of New England’s total gas supply.  On the coldest winter day in the winter 2004/2005, LNG was designed to account for up to 29 percent of the gas delivered in New England.  

##             Current U.S. LNG Import Terminals

**6.3 Bcf Storage Capacity**
**Regasification Capacity: 2.1 Bcf /day**

-             **Current U.S. LNG Import Terminals**

**Elba Island, Georgia**
**7.3 Bcf Storage Capacity**
**Regasification Capacity: 1.2 Bcf/day**

**Cove Point, Maryland**
**7.8 Bcf Storage Capacity**
**Regasification Capacity: 1 Bcf/day**

**Everett, Massachusetts**
**3.5 Bcf Storage Capacity**
**Regasification Capacity: 0.72 Bcf/day**

**Source: Energy Information Administration**

**Gulf of Mexico, Offshore**
**Gulf Gateway Energy Bridge       Regasification Capacity: 0.5 Bcf/day**

**Notes:**
  This map shows the locations of the five operational LNG import terminals in the US.  
  All are on the East Coast or the Gulf of Mexico region.  
  The Everett facility is the oldest in the US.  

Let’s look at the demand projection for the Northeast.  

## Northeast Natural Gas Consumption,2003 - 2030

**Northeast Natural Gas Consumption,****2003 - 2030**

**(trillion cubic feet)**

**Source: EIA, *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***

**Electric Power**

**Industrial**

**Commercial**

**Residential**

**Notes:**
There are approximately 12.6 million end-use natural gas customers in the Northeast:  11.5 million residential, 1 million commercial, and almost 33,000 industrial.  

In 2004, gas consumption by sector was as follows: residential 34 percent, commercial 24 percent, industrial 15 percent, and power generation 27 percent.  

EIA expects that natural gas consumption will increase about 20 percent between 2005 and when it peaks in 2022, growing from an annual level of about 3.17 to 3.81 trillion cubic feet.   With rising gas prices, particular by after 2020 or so, annual consumption in New England is expected to decrease about 3 percent to 930 billion cubic feet in 2030, due primarily to reductions in gas use for electricity generation.

## Northeast Seasonal Natural Gas Load Patterns By Sector

- Source: Energy Information Administration.

**Residential**

**Industrial**

**Commercial**

**Electric Power**

**Billion Cubic Feet per Day**

**Notes:**
As is evident by these figures, natural gas consumption is cyclical in nature.
For residential and commercial customers, much more gas is consumed during the winter heating season months of November through March 
 The electric power sector has a summer peak when more natural gas is consumed for cooling load.
  As a result of the cyclical nature of gas consumption, gas storage is a critical part of the natural gas supply picture during the winter months.   

## Liquefied and Underground Natural Gas Storage in the Northeast - 2004

**43 LNG Facilities**
**72 Underground Storage Facilities**

**Liquefied and Underground Natural Gas Storage in the Northeast - 2004**

- Source: Energy Information Administration, GasTran Gas Transportation System.

**Notes:**
Most of the underground storage facilities located in New York and Pennsylvania (as well as many in West Virginia) are the primary provider of backup and peaking service to the interstate pipelines delivering supplies to the New England States. 

The underground storage facilities located within New York and Pennsylvania represent approximately 520 billion cubic feet of working gas capacity.

The LNG facilities in all of the Northeast in 2004 represented more than 20 billion cubic feet of capacity, according to the Northeast Gas Association. 

## The Outlook for LNG Imports

**Notes:**
OK, Let’s look at the expected outlook for LNG imports.  

## Net Imports of Liquefied Natural Gas in Three LNG Supply Cases, 1990-2030(Trillion Cubic Feet)

**Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2006**

**History**

**Projections**

**Notes:**
The AEO 2006 Reference Case assumes that two LNG terminals under construction as of August 1, 2005, will be completed: the Cheniere Energy terminals in Freeport, Texas (1.5 bcfd), and Cameron Parish, Louisiana (2.6 bcfd) with assumed in-service dates of 2008 and 2009 respectively.  (Note that the AEO2007 is being worked on now, with an expected release date of November 2006 for the Reference Case results.
The AEO2006 Reference Case also is based on expansions at 3 of the 4 existing terminals: Cove Point, Maryland; Lake Charles, Louisiana; and Elba Island, Georgia.
There were two additional analysis scenarios: Low & High LNG supply cases.  
  In the High case, LNG imports reach 9.6 Tcf in 2030.  LNG imports reach 4.49 Tcf in 2013, which exceeds the Base Case volume in 2030. 
  The Low Case LNG imports reach slightly more than 1 Tcf by 2010, but do not increase appreciably thereafter through 2030.  
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

SO WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE WHEN LNG VOLUMES VARY?

## Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three LNG Supply Cases, 1990-2030(2004 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

**Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2006**

**History**

**Projections**

**High LNG**

**Base Case**

**Low LNG**

**Notes:**
 This graph shows the impact of the different LNG import levels on natural gas wellhead prices.  
 In the high LNG supply case, competition between LNG imports and domestic natural gas production leads to lower wellhead prices.  The lower prices result in less gas production (down 8%) and natural gas consumption is higher (12%).  
  Electric power use of natural gas is the most affected of the consuming sectors: up 44%.
 In the low LNG supply case the total supply of natural gas to U.S. consumers is less than in the reference case, leading to higher prices, lower consumption, and more domestic natural gas production.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  From an aggregate perspective, more LNG imports will provide additional benefits to American consumers with lower prices and additional consumption.  The locations of the import terminals affect the details of the scenario.  

Let’s turn to some of the issues concerning siting terminals in the Northeast

## Siting LNG Terminals in the Northeast

**Demand is expected to grow**
**Indigenous supplies are limited**
**Supplies must come from outside the region**
**The U.S. and Canadian oil and gas producing areas are “mature,” so North American production potential is limited **
**LNG terminals in the Northeast offer regional supply diversity, proximity to markets, distribution of LNG as a product**
**Import facilities elsewhere may take advantage of existing infrastructure **
**Northeast gas consumers will face direct competition for LNG imports outside the Northeast**

**Notes:**
As usual when there are difficult tradeoffs, there are more issues than there are answers. 

##  Periodic Reports

**william.trapmann@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***Annual Energy Outlook 2007*****, December 2006 and full report, February 2007**
***International Energy Outlook 2006*****, July 2006**
**   **
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**

** **Periodic Reports

**Notes:**
So, in summary, the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 reference case indicates that through 2030....

Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports.

Imports are expected to play an important role in U.S. natural gas markets, accounting for 21 percent of total U.S. natural gas consumption in 2030.
LNG imports are projected to grow sevenfold, from 650 billion cubic feet in 2004 to 4.4 trillion cubic feet in 2030.
The most rapid growth in LNG import capacity will occur over the next decade, with peak annual capacity increasing from 1.4 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 4.9 trillion cubic feet in 2015.
Construction of new terminals is expected to slow after 2015 as rising natural gas prices limit consumption, especially in the electric generator sector.

## www.eia.doe.gov

**www.eia.doe.gov**