# Presentation: 652335

## New Views on Disaster Risk Reduction and its Relevance to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS)

- <date/time>

- New Views on Disaster Risk Reduction and its Relevance to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS)

-  Disaster risks - rising and changing
-  A systematic approach to reducing risks
-  The UN’s strategy - the ISDR
-  A broader concept of early warning
-  Multiple and expanding roles for NMHS?

*Reid Basher, UN Secretariat of the ISDR, Geneva, www.unisdr.org*

*Presentation to “Global Disaster Mitigation and Response – Challenges and Opportunities”, *
*An international workshop hosted by US NOAA/NWS, December 9, 2004, Seattle, USA*

## Disaster risks - rising and changing (1)

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-  Five-fold rise in disaster over 1960s -1990s
-  Mostly hydro-meteorological origins
-  Poor people and countries most affected
-  Loss of life versus loss of assets
-  Major handicap to development

*In 2003, natural catastrophes resulted in more than 50,000 deaths and over   US$ 60 B in economic losses *
*Source: Munich Re *

## Disaster risks - rising and changing (2)

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-  More people and poor people in risky situations
-  Unsafe development: floodplain settlement, coastal exploitation, mega-city growth, unsafe houses, wetland destruction, river channeling, deforestation, soil erosion and fertility decline
-  Exacerbated by poverty and disease, conflict and population displacement

*Growing disasters are a sign of unsustainable development      *

*The reasons? Disasters require a *_*vulnerable*_* population    *

## Disaster risks - rising and changing (3)

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-  But IPCC projected changes in the weather hazards associated with disasters are mostly negative
-  Observed rises in temperatures and sea levels and some increases in rainfall intensities – may be already playing a role in some disasters
-  Large uncertainties – situation may be *worse* than predicted – climate change is major threat

*Climate change* not the main source of the disaster rise*

*(* Where “climate change” is as defined by the UNFCCC - caused by humans.) *

## A systematic approach to reducing risks

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-  Shift the focus from _hazards_ to _risk management_
-  Understand the nature of the risks - both the hazards and the vulnerabilities
-  Put in place the tools and methods to assess, predict, ameliorate, and respond to risk, including community commitment and advocacy
-  Ensure strong political support and administrative capacity for risk reduction

*Since disasters are a human phenomenon, we can change our ways to reduce our risks       *

## The UN’s strategy - the ISDR

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-  The International Strategy for Disaster Reduction: the follow-up to IDNDR, centerpiece of UN efforts
-  Coordinated international effort to reduce risks
-  Inter-Agency Task Force (UN, regional and civil society organizations)
-  Secretariat as catalyst: Policy development, Advocacy, Information, and Partnerships for Development
-  A vehicle for stimulating and coordinating action

*On December 10, 2003, the UN General Assembly passed two detailed resolutions calling on governments and UN agencies to work more actively to reduce the risks of disasters.*

## Some highlights of ISDR activities 

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- Some highlights of ISDR activities

-  Disaster risk reduction recognized in the WSSD and its Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
-  Promoted disaster risk reduction in other international forums (e.g. UNFCCC COP-9, World Urban Forum, WWF-3)
-  Systematic framework to describe the key elements of risk reduction policy and practice produced in collaboration with UNDP
-  Established regional outreach programs Africa (based in Nairobi) and Latin America and Caribbean (San Jose)
-  Collaborated with WMO on many matters - World Met and Water Days, water risks, support for CG-XI, El Niño advisories
-  Produced “Living with Risk”, a compendium of worldwide disaster risk reduction experience
-  IATF working groups advance topics of early warning, vulnerability and wildfire management
-  Organized major conference on early warning in Bonn, 2003

## The International Conference on Early Warning, 16-18 October 2003, Bonn

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-  The goal – integrating early warning of disasters into public policy
-  Regional preparatory meetings, multiple stakeholders
-  Five focus areas agreed, including better data collection and forecasting, capacity building and people-centered warning systems
-  German offer to support new ISDR-led platform to sustain necessary partnership action
-  See _[www.ewc2.org](http://www.ewc2.org/)__ for outcomes and reports_

## Changing views of climate and disasters

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-  *The pre-science era* - spiritual/religious, omens, fatalism, disasters as punishment or “acts of the divine”
-  *The stability and statistics era, 19**th** C onward - *Climate seen as stable, data series as powerful basis for risk management, the “100-year” event
-  *The global climate system era, post 1970 - *Satellites show “climate system”, global monitoring, computer models reveal climate change, ENSO, seasonal forecasts
-  *Current era of change and uncertainty -* Climate change, natural fluctuations (e.g. 1970s Sahel), disasters a growing concern, high stakes, growing human vulnerability

## A broader view of risk factors, a wider time frame

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*How to provide early warning and foresight of ... Declining environmental state? Risk-raising development projects? Social communications and capacity weaknesses? Trends in markets, prices, migration, conflict, health vulnerability? *

- _Element_                                   _Day-Week-Month-Year-Decade_
- Weather, tides, floods, soils     **XXXX               XXX**
- Reservoirs, snow pack                        **XXXXXXXX**
- People exposed, conflict, migration         **XXXXXX**
- Crop production, food prices                      **XXXXXX**
- Food reserves, food aid                                 **XXXXXX**
- Environmental management                                **XXXXXXXX**
- Industry, urban, infrastructure design                    ** XXXXXXX**
- Land use planning                                                      **XXXXXX**

## Disaster Roles for NHMS and WMO - strategy

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* *Understanding of climate system and climate variability
-  Observations and data analysis skills, assessment of risks
-  Modeling, prediction, early warning products
-  International coordination and networks

* *Integrative, systematic, risk management approaches
-  Engaging in social policies and institutional processes
-  Networking and partnership approaches
-  Widening the perspective; seeking new roles and skills

*Play to strengths ...*

*Work hard on  ...*

*Beyond the technical and product focuses*

## Disaster roles for NHMS and WMO - specifics (1)

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-  _Risk assessment_ - partner with risk managers to quantify and map relevant risks, and maintain risk-relevant observation networks and archives
-  _Event warning_ - produce good warnings, and engage in partnerships to (i) assess quality (equity of access, clarity, relevance, accuracy, timeliness) and (ii) promote effective use.
-  _Impacts_ - Engage with sector managers to support monitoring / interpretation / projection of impacts (e.g. food supply, reservoir state, migration)
-  _Vulnerability_ - Participate in the analysis of risks from (i) environmental, socio-economic and demographic trends, and (ii) current and proposed policies and development projects (incl. IPCC)

- Contribute to ISDR through

## Disaster roles for NHMS and WMO - specifics (2)

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-  _Advocacy_ - Promote active risk reduction to policy, public and technical audiences; promote partners first.
-  _Education_ - develop wider view of disaster risk in education and training programs
-  _National platform_ - promote and support national mechanisms to enhance disaster risk reduction, including policy formation
-  _WMO_ - endorse and support stronger role for Secretariat to energize disaster reduction work as per Congress-XIV decisions
-  _WCDR_ - engage in new international thrust provided by second World Conference on Disaster Reduction (Kobe-Hyogo, 18-22 January, 2005)

- Contribute to ISDR through

## Disaster reduction and NHMS - conclusions

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-  Intolerable impacts of growing disasters, and looming issue of climate change
-  New thinking on disaster risk and its social context
-  A strong need - and opportunity - for NMHS to join in the ISDR and to develop their role as a partner in disaster risk reduction