# Presentation: 686132

## LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR

**Energy Information Administration**

**Black & Veatch Forum**
**November 28, 2005**
**Washington, DC**

***LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR***
***ENERGY MARKETS***

## Annual Energy Outlook 2005 indicates that

**over the next two decades....**

**U.S. energy demand will grow at an average annual rate**
**of 1.3 percent, using the scenario with the highest assumed**
**world oil prices**

**The energy efficiency of the economy will increase at an**
**average annual rate of 1.7 percent**

**Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies will depend on **
**unconventional domestic production, natural gas from **
**Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports**

**The real price of electricity will drop from 7.4 cents to a low**
**of 6.7 cents in 2011 before reaching 7.4 cents per**
**kilowatthour again in 2025**

**U.S. oil import dependency will grow from 56 percent to**
**58 percent**

**Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use will increase**
**at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent**

## World Oil Price, 1970-2025

**(2003 dollars per barrel)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

**$27.73**

**$30.31**

**$48.00**

## U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2025 (quadrillion Btu)**

**27%**

**30%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of

**Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2025 (index, 1970 = 1)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2025

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**Petroleum**

**Nonhydropower Renewables**

**Hydropower**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,

**U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,**
**2003 and 2025 (quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Petroleum Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**U.S. Petroleum Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,**
**1960-2025 (million barrels per day)**

**56%**

**58%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Crude Oil  Production, 1970-2025

**(million barrels per day)**

**Lower-48 Onshore**

**Alaska**

**Lower-48 Offshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2025

**(million barrels per day)**

**Industrial**

**Transportation**

**Residential and Commercial**

**Electric Power**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2025 (trillion cubic feet)**

**15%**

**20%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, 1990 - 2025 (trillion cubic feet)

**Alaska**

**Lower-48 Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Lower-48 Non-Associated Offshore**

**Lower-48 Associated-Dissolved**

**Lower-48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2025

**(2003 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

**$4.98**

**$5.32**

## U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2025(trillion cubic feet)

- History

**Industrial*******

**Electric Generators**

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Transportation****

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

-  * Includes lease and plant fuel

- ** Includes pipeline fuel

## Major Sources of Incremental Natural Gas Supply,

**2003-2025 (trillion cubic feet)**

**Growth in Alaskan Production**

**Growth in**
**Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Growth in LNG Imports**

**2003 Production (all sources)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1970-2025(trillion cubic feet)

- History

- Projections

**Canada**

**Liquefied Natural Gas**

**Mexico**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## Regional LNG Imports at New Terminals,2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 (billion cubic feet)

**Regional LNG Imports at New Terminals,****2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 (billion cubic feet)**

**Mid**** **

**FL**

**South**

**New**

** ****South**

**East**

**AZ/NM**

**Mountain**

**WA/OR**

**CA**

**Mexico into United States**

**(2007)**

**(2006)**

**(2012)**

**(2012)**

**(20xx) – Start year of first new terminal**

**Florida**

**East South Central**

**West South Central**

**Central**

**Atlantic**

**Atlantic**

**West**** **

**England**

**Central**

**South**

**West**** **

**North**

**Central**

**Central**

**North**

**East**

**163**

**261**

**215**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1970-2025

**(billion kilowatthours)**

**Petroleum**

**Renewables**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel Type, 2001-2025 (gigawatts)

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

## U.S. Average Electricity Price, 1970-2025

**(2003 cents per kilowatthour)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

**7.4**

**7.4**

## U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2025

**U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2025**
**(million metric tons)**

**6,528 in 2010**

**8,029 in 2025**

**Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2025**
**(metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)**

**501 in 2010**

**396 in 2025**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005*

- History

- Projections

**5,789 in 2003**

**558 in 2003**

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2005*****, December 2004**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2005*****, July 2005**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    *****Renewable Fuels Legislation Impact Analysis*****, July 2005**
**    *****Assessment of Selected Energy Efficiency Policies,***** May 2005**
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****,**
**           ****March 2004**
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**