# Presentation: 498955

## 
Science and Technology Infusion Plan
for
Fire Weather Services
Paula Davidson

**Science and Technology Infusion Plan**
**for**
**Fire Weather Services**
**Paula Davidson**

- NWS S&T Committee
- September 17, 2002
- Rev 11/14/02

## Outline

**Team Composition**
**Vision/Benefits**
**Goals/Targets**
**Key Information Gaps **
**Key Solutions**
**Outstanding R & D Needs**
**Summary**

## Fire Weather ServicesTeam Composition

**Rusty Billingsley (NWS/OCWWS)**
**Phillip Bothwell (NWS/NCEP)**
**Paula Davidson (NWS/OST)**
**John McGinley (OAR)**
**(NESDIS)**

## Fire Weather ServicesVision / Benefits

_**Vision**_
** ****Eliminate weather-related wildland fire ****	****death/injury**
** ****Reduce fire management costs and health ****	****impacts, with more timely and accurate ****	****forecasts**

**Increasing lead times for Red Flag / critical fire weather helps firefighting and emergency response**
**Tactical efficiency improvements:  Each 1% reduction in average time of Type-I deployments saves ~ $10 M**
**Strategic efficiency improvements:  Reducing escaped fires by 1 each year saves ~ $12.5 M**

## Fire Weather ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12

| Performance Measure: Existing GPRA  | Current Skill | FY07 Goal | FY12 Target  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  |  |  |

| Proposed | Current  | FY07 Target | FY12 Target |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Red Flag Warning LT |  8.7 hr** | 14 hr | 24 hr |
| Red Flag Warning POD |  90%** | 91% | 92% |
| Spot Forecast element accuracy  (T, winds, RH) | NA | Within 30%  national MAE | Within 10% national MAE |
| Fire Wx Zone Forecast accuracy  (T, winds, RH) | NA | Within 20% national MAE | Within 5% national MAE |
| Extend daily national fire weather outlook | 2 day | thru day 5 | thru day 10 |
| National fire wx outlook:
POD critical fire wx at day 1 | NA | 80%  | 85% |

**NA= not presently collected****	****** WR only; national statistics not available**

## Fire Weather ServicesKey Information Gaps

**Fire Weather Services***Key Information Gaps*

**Inadequate density of observations – especially remote areas**
**Inadequate time and space resolution for fire weather and smoke forecasts**
**Insufficient forecast/guidance product coverage**
**Insufficient verification**
**Insufficient coordination and dissemination from obs to models to forecast products**
**Need to convey forecast uncertainty**

**“****BISCUIT” FIRE**

## Fire Weather Services Key S&T Solutions

| Gap | Solution | Impact |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Density of observations– especially remote areas

Time and space resolution for fire weather and smoke forecasts

Forecast/guidance products coverage 

Verification | Expand availability of remote and incident-specific obs

Assimilate available surface obs (e.g. Fire Raws); incident-specific observations
8km WRF; HRW 3km; 3km NMM (6 locations)
NDFD 1.5km; gridded MOS
Extend fire wx outlook to day-3 and beyond; GFS
SMART TOOLS: e.g. RFW condition search
Implement systematic, automated verification | increase in forecast accuracy: spot, fire weather, on-scene support

increase in forecast accuracy: spot, fire weather, on-scene support

increase critical fire wx POD
maintain high RFW POD across the Nation

increase forecast accuracy, esp. spot forecasts  |

## Fire Weather Services Key S&T Solutions (Continued)

| Gap | Solution | Impact |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Coordination and dissemination of information: from obs to models to forecast products

Convey forecast uncertainty | Advanced IT infrastructure/ mobile connectivity

Probabilistic forecast products
Advanced Ensembles:  SREF 12km and Global
Training/outreach | increase in operational use of on-scene weather and forecast information

increase operational utility of forecasts |

## Fire Weather Services Key S&T Solutions

**Fire Weather Services ***Key S&T Solutions*

**Ingest Targeted Observations**

**Ingest Surface Observations**

**8km WRF**

- Deployment

- OTE

- DTE

- R&D

**Observations**

**DA/Models**

**Forecast Techniques**

**Training**

**Advanced Ensembles**

**Chem-WRF **

**Automated Verification**

**3km HRW**

**Dec Assist Tools**

**National standardized verification**

**NDFD**

**Adv comms for IMETs**

**Dissemination**

**4DDA**

**GFS**

## Fire Weather ServicesOutstanding R&D Needs

- Improve high-resolution prediction methods for complex terrain
- Develop methods for verifying spot forecasts, given flexible, variable observational data
- Improve methods to ingest incident-specific observations into high-resolution forecast models and guidance
- Improve understanding of convection as related to critical fire weather
- Develop methods for forecasting, verifying dry thunderstorms
- Improve methods to forecast smoke impacts
- Develop probabilistic methods for fire weather forecasting
- Couple fire-behavior to fire weather models

## Fire Weather Services Summary

**Fire Weather Services**** *****Summary***

**2007**

**2012**

**Increasing Performance**

**2020**

**2002**

**                **_**R&D Needs**_
**Improve high-resolution **
**	****prediction in complex terrain**
**Develop methods to verify spot forecasts **
**Improve methods to ingest incident-specific observations**
**Improve understanding of  convection in critical fire weather**
**Improve methods to forecast dry thunderstorms; smoke impacts**
**Develop probabilistic forecast methods for fire weather**

- Improve Model Resolution and Accuracy
- New and Improved Forecast Techniques
- Integrate Observations
- Improved coordination/ dissemination

- Probabilistic Techniques
- Coupled Hazards Models
- Ingest Targeted Obs.

_**Vision**_
**Eliminate Weather-related Wildland Fire Death/Injury**
**Reduce Costs**

## Fire Weather ServicesBACK-UP

## Proposed Performance Measure: Red Flag Warning

## Proposed Performance Measure: Red Flag Warning