# Presentation: 666897

## Air Force Weather AgencyDirector’s UpdateCOPC 01-2Nov 2001Col Bob Allen CommanderApproved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

## Overview

**Homeland Defense Support**
**Inter-center Cooperative Initiatives**
- NCEP Backup
- NCEP Data Sharing
- NAVAF - METSAT Update
- NAVAF - Geostationary Feature Track Winds
- SPP - AFWA Product Transition Status
- NPOESS Centrals Technical Interchange Meeting
**AFWA Functional Realignments**
- Alpha-Numeric (Det 7) Mission Transition Update
- Space Weather Mission Transition Update
**AFWA Initiatives**
- Mesoscale Modeling Accomplishments
- Mesoscale Modeling: What’s Ahead?

## Homeland Defense Support

## Homeland Defense Support

- Most Homeland Defense support provided by standard suite of AFWA and OWS products
- Implemented two 5 km MM5 contingency windows over New York City and Washington, D.C. in support of operation “Noble Eagle”
- Available 18Z 11 Sep through 20 Sep
- Standard visualization products (examples follow)
- Specialized METWATCH product for NORAD
- Quick look status for NORAD OPCON airfields
- Activated 12 Sep as ongoing support (example follows)

## Homeland Defense Cont.

**surface wind barbs**

**Surface temperature (4****°****F interval)**

**AFWA MM5 5 km New York City Window**

## Homeland Defense Cont.

**Surface relative humidity forecast**

**Surface temperature (4****°****F interval) and surface wind barbs**

**AFWA MM5 5 km Washington D.C. Window**

## Homeland Defense Cont. 

- Click on a location to see the OBS data

- Special Support Operations Branch METWATCH Tool

## Inter-center Cooperative Initiatives

## NCEP Backup

**Storm Prediction Center**
- Successful backup tests:  27 Sep 01 and 16 Nov 01
**Aviation Weather Center**
- AFWA has sent 7 people to AWC for training and familiarization (Fall 01).
- Backup test:  28 Nov 01
**N-AWIPS**
- Software upgraded to V 5.6.e.1, 14 Nov 01
**MM5 Backup for Eta Model**
- Four cycles daily, 45 km, North American and Alaskan windows to NCEP
- Successful backup test in Oct 01

## NCEP Backup

** ****Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center **
- AFWA assumed W-VAAC text message backup responsibility on 17 Jul 01.
- AFWA produced VAFTAD-like graphic ash forecast
- Based on PUFF model output
- Available on JAAWIN
- Initial output sent to NCEP on 9 Nov 01; working format issues
- Interim Letter of Agreement in-place; formal NCEP MOA to be coordinated.

## NCEP Data Sharing

**Land Surface Model (LSM-A)**** **
- Formally requested by NCEP as a model data source
- USDA/FAS approved sharing data
- No public distribution of data for 30 days
- Draft MOA awaiting NCEP final coordination

## NCEP Data Sharing

**Space Environment Center**
- AFWA and SEC finalized MOU on 26 Jun 01
- Formalizes centralized space environmental data exchange and backup relationships

## NAVAF - METSAT Update

**Metrics agreement **
- Five minute threshold for single-rev readout
- Ten minute threshold for multiple-rev readout
**27 Apr 01 - 15 Nov 01**
- 99.8% of files delivered
- 97.1% of files delivered by AFWA within timeliness threshold (FNMOC hardware outages and maintenance caused additional 1.7% late)

## NAVAF - Geostationary Feature Track Winds

- Value added in data-sparse regions

- Enables more precise specification of tropical cyclone structure

**TC20S (Alistair)**

## NAVAF – Geostationary Feature Track Winds

**AFWA consuming GOES-8/10 FTW from NESDIS via SPP**
**GMS-5, Meteosat-5, Meteosat-7 FTW production operational at AFWA**
**Assisting Navy/UW effort to add GOES FTW capability**

## SPP - AFWA Product Transition Status

**Mainframe decommissioning now projected for ****May-Jul 02**
**DMSP Mission Sensor Data**
- New Raw Sensor Data Record product operational
- Legacy product cutoff ASAP but NLT May 02
**GRIB-format Snow Depth Analysis**
- Sample files available 15 Nov; will go operational pending resolution of any problems discovered in sample files
- Legacy product discontinued ASAP but NLT May 02
**GRIB-format Cloud Analysis**
- Project still in progress; sample files available by mid-Dec
- Legacy product discontinued with CDFS II FOC May-Jul 02

## NPOESS Centrals TIM

**NPOESS 4-Centrals TIM at AFWA 18 Jul 01**
**Result was letter to NPOESS IPO asking for data management services to be included within NPOESS IDPS**
- Our consolidated polar-orbiting use cases matrix provides basis for making this common request
- Shows definable/common NPOESS data usage patterns
**Favorable consideration by the IPO will:**
- Avoid unnecessary time delay to stage NPOESS data
- Avoid significant Central infrastructure costs

## AFWA Functional Realignments

## AFWA Det 7 Mission Transition

- Converge the Automated Digital Weather Switch (Det 7) functionality into AFWA (collect, package/ format, disseminate worldwide A/N weather data)
- Continue to use WMO standards for data exchange
- Reengineered system will mainly utilize TCP/IP based protocol over common-user communication
- Customer/sources who can’t migrate to TCP/IP will be serviced via LCRS (legacy communications relay system)

## Det 7 Mission Transition Schedule

** ****Dec 01:  **Complete all software module builds   for functionality move from Det 7
** ****Jan 02**:  Transition of legacy comm circuits to   LCRS at Offutt - Est 90% complete by 30 Dec
-  **Feb 02:  **Complete development test and     evaluation and integration of all software
-  **Spring 02**:  Force Development Evaluation   (FDE) - transition from Tinker to Offutt complete

## Space Weather Mission Transition

**Strategic Space Weather Observing and Forecasting Mission Moves to AFWA Over the Next 6 Months**** **
- Leverages AFWA’s production/dissemination system
- Will “mainstream” space weather products & services
**Enhances Models and Methods Used Today**
- Incorporates new data sources
- Provides multi-level secure processing/production
- Looking to national level programs for partnering

##  Space Weather Transition Schedule

** ****Space Weather Transition Schedule**

**1FY 01**

**2FY 01**

**3FY 01**

**4FY 01**

**1FY 02**

**2FY 02**

**3FY 02**

**4FY 02**

**1FY 03**

**Forecaster-in-the-loop Products to AFWA**

**Automated Products to AFWA**

**Transfer of SEOC **
**Mission to AFWA**

**Ionospheric Sensor**
**Upgrades**** ****(DISS/IMS)**

**SEON Upgrades**
**(ISOON / SRBL)**

**Forecasting System Upgrades**** **

**FY02-05**

**FY01-05**

## AFWA Initiatives

## Mesoscale Modeling Accomplishments

**Mesoscale Data Assimilation System (MDAS) for MM5**
- Reduced model “spin-up”; improved short-term forecasts
**3-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (3DVAR)**
- NCAR development partnership; initial testing began May 01
- Operational implementation projected for Jul 02
**Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model**
- Developed data conversion utilities and output interfaces
- Daily real-time forecasts for testing and verification
**NCAR Tropical Cyclone Bogusing added to MM5**
- Valuable track guidance to JTWC and NHC
- Good feedback from NRL
**GTWAPS Fully Operational & Baselined – Oct 01**

## Current GTWAPS System

## Current GTWAPS Windows

## Mesoscale Modeling: What’s Ahead?

**Continued MM5 Optimization**
- New MM5 release with OSU polar physics package
- Evaluate “physics packages” that improve forecasts by theater
**Continued WRF Development and Validation**
- Choose dynamical core and optimize standard initialization (SI)
- Develop, integrate and test nesting capability in multiple theaters
**4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR)**
- AFRL developing MM5 capability through CHSSI funding
- Will leverage for WRF development
**Joint Environmental Modeling System (JEMS)**
- Capability to forecast entire battlespace environment
- NCAR integrating Unified-LSM into both MM5 and WRF
- ETL investigating ocean coupling for WRF