# Presentation: 834097

## Space Weather Aviation Operational Needs

**Space Weather Aviation Operational Needs**

- Bill Murtagh
- NOAA Space Environment Center
- Boulder, Colorado
- David Boteler
- Geological Survey of Canada
- Ottawa, Ontario

- Edmonton CPWG
- September 2007

**Notes:**
The SEC Forecast Center is operated by NOAA and is the national and world warning center for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in the space environment. 

## Space Weather Storms: Timing & Consequences

- 8 Minutes later: EUV and X-ray emission
- Radio (HF) communications are lost
- GPS signal loss
- (mostly low and mid-latitude impacts for minutes to <hour)
- 30 – 1000 minutes later: Energetic Particle onset (Radiation Storm)
- HF loss on Polar flights (hours to days)
- Increased radiation threat
- GPS degradation at high latitudes
- Avionics impacted
- 1 – 4 Days later: Eruptive material (CME) arrives
- GPS Systems are affected
- Radio Communications are affected

**Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite**

**Space Weather Storms: Timing & Consequences**

**A Flare and/or Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on the Sun**

## CPTEWG Space Weather Sub-group

_**“**__**Aviation Space Weather User Requirements” Work Project**_
_**Meeting held at United Airlines World HQ,  August 10, 2007**_
- David Boteler     Natural Resources Canada & International Space 			     Environment Services (ISES)
- Gene Cameron  United Airlines (UA)
- Bryn Jones         AMS-SolarMetrics Policy Study (SMX)
- Joe Kunches	     NOAA Space Environment Center (SEC)
- Mike Stills	     United Airlines (UA)
-         *Members not present*
-         Genene Fisher   AMS-SolarMetrics Policy Study (AMS)
-         Dave Rome	     NAV CANADA

- UA had been selected as the “operator” to lead this process. All
-     - work will be submitted to CPTEWG for full evaluation and comment by all
-       operators (airlines, business jet and ATC agencies)

- Work of this CPTEWG Space Weather (SW) sub-group is to be carried out with reference to the AMS & SolarMetrics Policy Workshop Report “Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Aviation Operations” and the Findings and Recommendations found in Section 2 (Policy Issue: Communication of Space Weather Information).

## Aviation & Space Weather Policy Study

_**Aviation & Space Weather Policy Study**_

## Policy Workshop Recommendations

_**Policy Workshop Recommendations**_

- Define requirements for space weather information and how it is incorporated into the operational decision making process
- Cross Polar Trans East Working Group (CPTEWG), NOAA SEC, International Space Environment Services (ISES)
- Deliver space weather information in an internationally agreed upon standardized format as defined by the aviation user requirements
- ISES Regional Warning Centres, FAA
- Increase the interaction between the aviation community and the space weather research and service provider community
- NextGen sub-Groups, SESAR

## The International Space Environment Service (ISES) 

**The International Space Environment Service (ISES) **
-    -  The mission of the ISES is to encourage and facilitate near-real-time
-         international monitoring and prediction of the space environment.
-    -   ISES provides standardized space environment products and services to
-        assist users reduce the impact of space weather on activities of human interest.

**International Space Environment Service (ISES)**

## Spaceweather.org will provide one-stop shopping for space weather products in support of Polar operations

- 	- Ensures consistency of forecast products
- 	- Leverages resources of multiple agencies

## User Requirements documentation will contain: 

- b. _When is it needed_? Products needed to answer this question include: extended outlook, warning, alert, updates, and current conditions
- c. _How is it delivered_? (e.g., graphic and text form,
-     formation to be pushed and pulled, integrated with
-     existing Ops systems).

**User Requirements documentation will contain: **

- FAA provided guidance to get requirements and related documentation in to the FAA acquisition process:
-  ConOps
-  Gap Analysis
-  Functional and Performance Requirements
-  Alternatives and Investment Analysis.

## Establishing Requirements

|  | 7-Day | 24 hour | 12 hour | 6 hour | Current |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Outlook | X | X | X | X |  |  |
| Warning |  |  | X | X |  |  |
| Alert |  |  |  |  | X |  |
| Update |  |  |  |  |  | As needed |

**Establishing Requirements**

- Products (a first draft)

****SAMPLE****
**Space Weather Outlook **
**06 December – 13 December 2007 **
- Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels, with isolated major flare activity possible.
- HF communications will likely experience periods of blackout conditions at high latitudes due to solar radiation storms.  A major radiation storm is possible. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels through 11 December, and quiet thereafter....

## Radiation Storm Concerns...

-  S1 – S5 scales are based upon particle energies too low to have any significant effect
-  Scales are applicable elsewhere
-  SEC will explore a new scale or system for passenger and crew exposure in aircraft based upon particle energies ≥100MeV
-  SEC will discuss with airlines how to interpret current information with regard to human exposure from higher energy particles

## Types of Products

- Polar cap absorption
- Auroral absorption
- Phenomena are centered on the geomagnetic pole not the geographic pole.
- 	absorption occurs at distinctly different geographic latitudes

**Types of Products**

- x

- x

## Graphical product could be provided, or data points for plotting on

- Lat         Long 48.89    -76.23 49.23    -72.86 49.68    -69.43 50.24    -65.91 50.9      -62.3 51.66    -58.56 52.51    -54.66 53.43    -50.59 54.41    -46.32 55.41    -41.82 56.42    -37.09 57.42    -32.12 58.37    -26.91 59.26    -21.48 60.08    -15.85 60.8      -10.06

- Existing operational systems

## Note that there is a marked day/night effect in the polar cap absorption 

- Note that there is a marked day/night effect in the polar cap absorption

## Improve existing products...

## Technological Development

**Technological Development**

**R**
**I**
**S**
**K**

**Notes:**
Identified key impact areas are: avionics, Comms (HF, UHF, VHF), human exposures, and effects on Global Navigation Satellite Systems

## Slide 16

## Slide 17