# Presentation: 702446

##    Incorporating Information & Expectations 

- in Spatial Choice Models: Application to the Hawaii  Longline Fishery

**Rita Curtis, NOAA Fisheries**
**Ted McConnell, University of Maryland**

## 1998 Hawaii Longline Effort Allocation

**1998 Hawaii ****Longline**** Effort Allocation**

## Spatial model needs to be dynamic and account for multiple targeting strategies.

-   -  Fishermen incur large costs to access  distant sites that
- often outweigh the expected returns from single day of
- production. Effort allocation within fishery may be based upon _**stream of returns**_** **generated over course of a trip.
-   -  Multispecies fisheries comprised of fish with varying value and shelf life that may also be differentially distributed across fishing grounds as well as within fishing grounds (deep water species vs. shallow water species).  Foraging patterns also differ causing to occur at night or during the day depending upon species targeted.

## 1998 Hawaii Longline Effort Allocation

**1998 Hawaii Longline Effort Allocation**
**	****with Fishing Regions**

## <30 sets

- 30-100 sets

- 100-200 sets
- >200  sets

## Behavioral Model	

- EU(W)sfc = EU(W1sfc) +     EU(Wtfc)

- W1=(W0-FFUELfc)+REVsfc-SFUELsfc-OTHERCsfc-LABORsfc
- Wt=(Wt-1 - FFUELfc+ACCUMREV - CATCHDET)+REVfc
-            - SFUELsfc - OTHERCsfc - LABORsfc

## Hawaii Longline Fishery: 1998 

|  | Sword | Mixed | Tuna |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Number of Sets | 14 | 11 | 10 |
| Average Set Revenue | $3340 | $3212 | $3643 |
| Distance to initial site | 812 | 552 | 282 |
| Fuel Costs | $11K | $7.2K | $1.9K |
| Number of sites fished / trip | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Catch Deterioration | $136 | $882 | $2832 |

- Hawaii Longline Fishery: 1998

## Forecasting Returns: Model & Results

- Lag Length 	Swordfish    Mixed  	Tuna
- AR1			   .671	   .542	.553
- AR2			   .211	   .288	.288
- AR3					   .176	.107
******t-1 ****	****	****	****      **.21		   .22		.25

## EU(W)sfc = EU(W1sfc) +     EU(Wtsfc) 

- EU(W)sfc = EU(W1sfc) +     EU(Wtsfc)

## 		     RUM Refresher

- He picks the kth site if it gives him the most utility.
- 	U( k) + k  _>_ U(r) + r for all k  r

- 		     RUM Refresher
- RUMs assume that you pick the choice that gives you the most utility.

## Nested RUM Model

- The probability of choosing site s, conditional on fishery/target
- choice fc as

- The probability of choosing fishery/catch target fc is

## The Nested RUM Model, cont.

- where Ifc is called the inclusive value parameter and is obtained
- from

- The inclusive value term captures information for all sites
- associated with fishery/target choice fc.  Ifc can be thought of
- as the expected utility across the site choice conditional on
- the choice of fc.

## RUM Model Comparison

- Model 1:	Expectations on returns at fishing sites updated daily while at sea.
- Model 2:	Expectations on returns at fishing sites formulated while at port not updated while fishing.

## Empirical Results

- 				Updating        **No Updating**
- Stage 1:  Short Run
- WEALTH		  	   0.121** 		  **0****.094 * ***
- Stage 2:  Long Run
- WEALTH		  	   0.0086** 	   **0.004***
- INCVAL	  	   	   0.457** 		   **0.649****
***5% level of significance**
****1% level of significance**

**Notes:**
-  fishermen respond positively to expected benefits 

## Sea Turtle Closure

- All year: 30N. to 44N. between 137W. and 173E. (all of “swordfish fishery,” part of “mixed fishery”
- Seasonal closure:  April/May, 23N - 44N and 6N - 16N between 137W and 173E.

## Welfare Effects

|  | Sword | Mixed | Tuna |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Model 1: Updating | $ 17,077 | $5,672 | $1,078 |
| Model 2:  No Updating | $14,522 | $4,889 | $1,258 |

## Conclusions

**Empirics**
- --    Longliners may have limited ability to update information on returns; there may be  limited information sharing among longliners.
- –   May provide evidence that many of the decisions made on a trip are made at port, which may add stability to fishery in that fishermen are not racing daily to new-found hot spots
**Application**
- --turtle closure costly to longliners; results indicated differential effects across user groups