# Presentation: 918831

## Annual Energy Outlook 2001

**Mary J. Hutzler**
**Director**
**Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting**
**Energy Information Administration**

## Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2020

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**1960**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**60**

**70**

**80**

**90**

**100**

**110**

**120**

**130**

**History**

**Projections**

**AEO2001**

**AEO2000**

## Projected Average Annual Growth in Sectoral Output,

**Real GDP**

**Total gross output**

**Industrial**
**output**

**Non-industrial**
**output**

**Manufacturing**
**output**

**Energy-intensive**
**manufacturing**

**Non-energy-intensive**
**manufacturing**

**0.0**

**0.5**

**1.0**

**1.5**

**2.0**

**2.5**

**3.0**

**3.5**

**AEO2001**

**AEO2000**

**Projected Average Annual Growth in Sectoral Output,**
**1999-2020 (percent per year)**

## Primary Energy Consumption by Sector, 1970-2020

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**Residential**

**Industrial**

**Transportation**

**Commercial**

**History**

**Projections**

**Primary Energy Consumption by Sector, 1970-2020**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

## Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Gross Domestic

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**0.2**

**0.4**

**0.6**

**0.8**

**1.0**

**1.2**

**History**

**Projections**

**Energy use per**
**dollar of GDP**

**Energy use per**
**capita**

**Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Gross Domestic**
**Product, 1970-2020 (index, 1970 = 1)**

## Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2020

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**Coal**

**Natural gas**

**Nuclear**

**Petroleum**

**History**

**Projections**

**Hydropower**

**Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2020**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

**Nonhydropower**
**Renewables**
**and other**

## Energy Production by Fuel, 1970-2020

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**30**

**Coal**

**Natural gas**

**Nuclear**

**Petroleum**

**History**

**Projections**

**Hydropower**

**Nonhydro**
**renewables**

**Energy Production by Fuel, 1970-2020**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

## World Oil Price, 1970-2020

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**30**

**35**

**40**

**45**

**50**

**55**

**60**

**65**

**History**

**Projections**

**AEO2001**

**AEO2000**

**March 2001 STEO**

**1995**

**2020**

**17.09**

**36.03**

**Nominal dollars**

**World Oil Price, 1970-2020**
**(1999 dollars per barrel)**

## World Oil Price in Three Cases, 1970-2020

**(1999 dollars per barrel)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**60**

**70**

**Reference**

**Low price**

**High price**

**History**

**Projections**

## Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports,

**1970-2020 (million barrels per day)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**30**

**Domestic supply**

**Consumption**

**History**

**Projections**

**Net imports**

## Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2020

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**Industrial**

**History**

**Projections**

**Transportation**

**Residential/commercial**

**Electricity generation**

**Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2020**
**(million barrels per day)**

## Crude Oil Production by Source, 1970-2020

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**2**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**History**

**Projections**

**Lower 48 EOR**

**Alaska**

**Lower 48**
**offshore**

**Lower 48 conventional**

**Crude Oil Production by Source, 1970-2020**
**(million barrels per day)**

## Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2020

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**1**

**2**

**3**

**4**

**5**

**History**

**Projections**

**AEO2001**

**AEO2000**

**March 2001 STEO**

**1995**

**2020**

**1.55**

**5.03**

**Nominal dollars**

**Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2020**
**(1999 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

## Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**1**

**2**

**3**

**4**

**5**

**Slow technology**

**Reference**

**Rapid technology**

**History**

**Projections**

**Lower 48 Natural Gas Wellhead Prices in Three**
**Technology Cases, 1970-2020**
**(1999 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

## Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports,

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**History**

**Projections**

**Production**

**Consumption**

**Net**
**imports**

**Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports,**
**1970-2020 (trillion cubic feet)**

## Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1970-2020

**(trillion cubic feet)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**2**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**10**

**12**

**History**

**Projections**

**Commercial**

**Residential**

**Electric Generators**

**Industrial**

## Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2020

**(trillion cubic feet)**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**2**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**10**

**12**

**Lower 48 NA**
**conventional onshore**

**History**

**Projections**

**Lower 48 AD**

**Alaska**

**Lower 48 NA**
**unconventional**

**Lower 48 NA offshore**

## Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2020

**(1999 dollars per ton)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**6**

**12**

**18**

**24**

**30**

**36**

**42**

**48**

**54**

**History**

**Projections**

**AEO2001**

**AEO2000**

**1995**

**2020**

**18.83**

**20.43**

**Average price**
**(nominal dollars)**

## Average Minemouth Coal Price in Three Mining Cases, 

**1990-2020 (1999 dollars per short ton)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**6**

**12**

**18**

**24**

**30**

**36**

**42**

**48**

**54**

**Reference**

**High mining cost**

**Low mining cost**

**History**

**Projections**

## Coal Consumption by Sector, 1970-2020

**(million short tons)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**200**

**400**

**600**

**800**

**1,000**

**1,200**

**History**

**Projections**

**Residential **
**and**
**Commercial**

**Coking**

**Electric Generators**

**Other Industrial**

## Coal Production by Region, 1970-2020

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**250**

**500**

**750**

**1,000**

**1,250**

**1,500**

**Eastern**

**Western**

**Total**

**History**

**Projections**

**Coal Production by Region, 1970-2020**
**(million short tons)**

## Electricity Price, 1970-2020

**(1999 cents per kilowatthour)**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**1**

**2**

**3**

**4**

**5**

**6**

**7**

**8**

**9**

**10**

**History**

**Projections**

**AEO2001**

**AEO2000**

**1970**

**2020**

**Average price**
**(nominal cents)**

**1.7**

**9.7**

## Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, 1970-2020

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**400**

**800**

**1,200**

**1,600**

**2,000**

**Commercial**

**Residential**

**Industrial**

**History**

**Projections**

**Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, 1970-2020**
**(billion kilowatthours)**

**1970**

**2020**

**Electricity demand**

**4,804**

**1,392**

## Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1949-2020

**1950**

**1960**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**500**

**1,000**

**1,500**

**2,000**

**2,500**

**3,000**

**3,500**

**4,000**

**4,500**

**5,000**

**5,500**

**   ****Coal**

**   ****Natural Gas**

**   ****Petroleum**

**   ****Nuclear**

**   ****Renewable/Other**

**History**

**Projections**

**Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1949-2020**
**(billion kilowatthours)**

## Electricity Capacity, 1999-2020

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**200**

**400**

**600**

**800**

**1,000**

**1,200**

**Needed**
**Capacity**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewable**

**Existing Capacity,**
**with Future Retirements**

**Electricity Capacity, 1999-2020**
**(gigawatts)**

## Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by North

**Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by North**
**American Electric Reliability Council Region, 2000-2020**
**(gigawatts)**

## Projected Electricity Generation Costs,

**Projected Electricity Generation Costs,**
**2005 and 2020 (1999 mills per kilowatthour)**

**Coal**

**Combined**
**cycle**

**2005**

**Wind**

**Nuclear**

**Coal**

**Combined**
**cycle**

**2020**

**Wind**

**Nuclear**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**60**

**70**

**Capital**

**Fuel**

**Operations and maintenance**

**43.2**

**41.6**

**59.6**

**62.7**

**41.2**

**37.7**

**45.7**

**61.5**

## Projected Cumulative New Generating Capacity by Type

**Reference**

**High demand**

**0**

**100**

**200**

**300**

**Turbines**

**Coal steam**

**Combined cycle**

**Renewables**

**Projected Cumulative New Generating Capacity by Type**
**in Two Cases, 1999-2020 (gigawatts)**

## Projected U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2020**

**0**

**500**

**1,000**

**1,500**

**2,000**

**2,500**

**Industrial**

**Commercial**

**Residential**

**Transportation**

**Natural gas**

**Coal**

**Petroleum**

**Projected U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and**
**Fuel, 1990-2020 (million metric tons carbon equivalent)**

**Electric Generators**