# Presentation: 414359

## Tracking and Predicting the Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Releases:Implications for Homeland Security

- Briefing by
- Dr. John Wyngaard, Pennsylvania State University
- General William Odom, (Ret.), Hudson Institute

- A report produced by the National Academies’
- Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

- June 19, 2003

**Notes:**
Briefly explain how the study came about:
 - Post 9/11, the Academies launched a major effort to assist in counterterrorism efforts by providing guidance to govt on pertinent scientific and technical matters
 - Atmospheric dispersion study was natural effort from BASC

## Committee Members

**Robert Serafin** (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research
**Eric Barron**, Pennsylvania State University, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences
**Howard Bluestein**, University of Oklahoma, Department of Meteorology
**Steve Clifford**, University of Colorado–CIRES
**Lewis Duncan**, Dartmouth College, School of Engineering
**Margaret LeMone**, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division
**David Neff**, Colorado State University, Department of Civil Engineering
**William Odom**, Hudson Institute, National Security Studies and Yale University
**Gene Pfeffer**, Orbital Sciences Corporation
**Karl Turekian**, Yale University, Department of Geophysics
**Tom Warner**, University of Colorado, Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
**John Wyngaard**, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology

## Study Task
The National Academies’ Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate will organize a workshop to:
Review the current suite of models used in characterizing atmospheric dispersion, and examine how they are applied operationally for emergency response efforts;
Examine the observational data needed to initialize, test, and use these models effectively; and
Assess research and development needed to enhance models' effectiveness and operational use.
Study Origin
Initiated internally by the National Academies’ Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate.  Supported by BASC core funds and National Academies’ endowment funds.

Timeline
Planning meeting:	May, 2002;  Washington, DC
Workshop:	July, 2002;  Woods Hole, MA 
Report released:	June 2003

- The National Academies’ Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate will organize a workshop to:
- Review the current suite of models used in characterizing atmospheric dispersion, and examine how they are applied operationally for emergency response efforts;
- Examine the observational data needed to initialize, test, and use these models effectively; and
- Assess research and development needed to enhance models' effectiveness and operational use.
- Study Origin
- Initiated internally by the National Academies’ Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate.  Supported by BASC core funds and National Academies’ endowment funds.
- Timeline
- Planning meeting:	May, 2002;  Washington, DC
- Workshop:	July, 2002;  Woods Hole, MA
- Report released:	June 2003

- Study Overview

## Workshop and Meeting Participants

**David Bacon**, SAIC
**Martin Bagley**, DTRA
**Brian Beitler**, DTRA
**Warren Bowen,** TSWG
**Yu-Han Chen**, MIT
**Walter Dabberdt**, Vaisala Inc.
**Paula Davidson**, NOAA/NWS
**Frances Edwards-Winslow**, San Jose Emergency Preparedness Office
**James Ellis**, LLNL–NARAC
**Steve Hanna**, GMU
**Michael Hardesty**, NOAA/ETL
**Charles Hess, FEMA**
**Paul Hirschberg**, NOAA/NWS
**Kathy Houshmand**, DOD
**Alan Huber**, EPA / NOAA
**Vladimir Kogan**, Battelle (DOD)
**Michael Lowder**, FEMA

**Donald Lucas**, MIT
**Bob Lyons**, U.S. Army Soldier and Biological Chemical Command
**Steve McGrail**, Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency
**Duncan McGill**, DTRA
**Mark Miller**, NOAA
**Debbie Payton**, NOAA
**Lew Podolske**, White House OHS
**Jennifer Reichert**, DOE
**David Roberts**, Mitretek
**David Rogers**, NOAA/OAR
**Jack Settelmaier**, NOAA/NWS
**John Sorensen**, ORNL
**Gerald Streit**, LANL
**Gayle Sugiyama**, LLNL –NARAC
**Don Wernly**, NOAA/NWS
**Sam Williamson**, OFCM

## Atmospheric dispersion models that predict the path and spread of hazardous agents
Observations of the plume and local topography and meteorology
Effective communication and coordination among the relevant atmospheric science and emergency response communities 

- Atmospheric dispersion models that predict the path and spread of hazardous agents
- Observations of the plume and local topography and meteorology
- Effective communication and coordination among the relevant atmospheric science and emergency response communities

- Dispersion Modeling Overview

- Meeting the challenge of tracking and predicting the dispersion of hazardous (chemical/biological/
- nuclear) agents requires three interconnected elements:

## Preparedness
intelligence and threat assessment; training and planning; prevention and protection
Response
immediate first response (0-2 hours)
early response (generally 2-12 hours)
sustained response support (generally greater than 12 hours)
Recovery and Analysis
monitoring environmental contamination; restoration and decontamination; reconstruction of exposure patterns

- intelligence and threat assessment; training and planning; prevention and protection
- Response
- immediate first response (0-2 hours)
- early response (generally 2-12 hours)
- sustained response support (generally greater than 12 hours)
- Recovery and Analysis
- monitoring environmental contamination; restoration and decontamination; reconstruction of exposure patterns

- Using Dispersion Modeling in 3 Phases

- Different observational/modeling capabilities are required for each of these phases.

**Notes:**
Preparedness:  
Intelligence and threat assessment – consideration of capabilities and attack risks linked with any potential terrorist organization
Preparedness planning complements emergency planning for accidental atmospheric releases of harmful agents

## Meeting User Needs

- Emergency responders face a confusing array of seemingly competitive models, and often do not have a clear understanding of where to turn for immediate assistance.   *Recommendation:* Establish a single federal point of contact to connect emergency responders to dispersion modeling centers for immediate assistance nationwide
-  Emergency responders need to better understand strengths and weaknesses of dispersion  modeling tools.  Atmospheric scientists need to better understand how dispersion forecasts are used in emergency response.  *Recommendation:* Regularly conduct tabletop event simulation exercises with emergency responders and atmospheric modelers & observers
- Emergency managers need a realistic understanding of the uncertainties in a dispersion model prediction  *Recommendation:* Models should quantify both the average downwind concentration and expected event-to-event variability for a given release

## Observations: Needs and Capabilities

- Plume location and composition
- direct observations, C/B/N sensors, symptom identification
- Local wind fields
- multi-use observational networks (including Doppler radars)
- 900 MHz BL radar wind profilers (augmented with sodars or RASS)
- optical crosswind sensors and webcams (for winds in urban canyons)
- mobile sensors (scanning lidars or radars, UAV platforms)
- Depth and intensity of turbulent layers (especially their diurnal variations)
- radar wind profilers, RASS, lidar
- Potential areas of agent degradation and deposition
- cloudiness, precipitation, humidity fields

## Observations: Recommendations

- Conduct **comprehensive survey** of capabilities and limitations of existing **observational networks.**
- Explore **supplementing Doppler radar network** with sub-networks of short-range, short-wavelength radars
- to estimate BL winds, monitor precipitation, track plumes.
- Integrate **wind and temperature profilers** into fixed-observational networks.
- Continue developing airborne and surface **mobile observational platforms **
- to characterize wind, temp., and turbulence in areas where fixed platforms cannot be deployed easily, and
- to ensure rapid deployment for timely use.

## Observations: Recommendations (cont.)

- Characterize **local wind flow** patterns (over full diurnal cycle) in selected areas,
- to help optimize design of observational system and educate local forecasters.
- Conduct **field programs** to test and improve dispersion and mesoscale models,
- capitalizing on related field studies in wx forecasting, BL turbulence, etc.

- To help justify and assuage costs:
**prioritize** by identifying areas of greatest need
- utilize instrumentation for **other purposes**, such as** **air pollution, agriculture, severe-storm forecasting, etc.

## Categories of Dispersion Models

- Coordinate system
- Eulerian  or Lagrangian
- Wind field
- Single mean wind vector at one height
- Time-varying winds measured at several points in the domain
- 3-dimensional grid of winds calculated by a meteorological model
- Type of Averaging
- Ensemble:  model predicts the average of many episodes (realizations)
- Spatial:  model predicts a coarse-grained version of one realization, highlighting turbulent character of solution fields

## Modeling Systems Discussed in the Report(This is NOT a comprehensive list or an endorsement of the ‘best’ systems)

- Sponsoring Org.         Model Acronyms
- DTRA/DOD	         HPAC/SCIPUFF
- LLNL/DOE	         NARAC/ADAPT-LODI
-                                         NARAC/FEM3MP
- LANL/DOE	         QWIC
-                                         HIGRAD
- NOAA/EPA	         CAMEO/ALOHA
- EPA	                        CALPUFF
-                                         Fluent
- SAIC	                        OMEGA
- UK DSTL	         UDM

## Preparedness phase
Site-specific meteorological data coupled with probability-based dispersion model predictions and/or wind-tunnel simulations
Site-specific 3D databases of urban buildings and topography
Response phase
Rapidly assimilate local wind and contaminant data, then initialize source characteristics
Short-execution-time dispersion models are essential!
Recovery and Analysis
Slower models that incorporate all available data to reconstruct plume’s space/time distribution

- Site-specific meteorological data coupled with probability-based dispersion model predictions and/or wind-tunnel simulations
- Site-specific 3D databases of urban buildings and topography
- Response phase
- Rapidly assimilate local wind and contaminant data, then initialize source characteristics
- Short-execution-time dispersion models are essential!
- Recovery and Analysis
- Slower models that incorporate all available data to reconstruct plume’s space/time distribution

- Modeling to Assist Emergency Response

## Neither an individual realization nor an ensemble average is sufficient for assessing dispersion.  Predictions of both the ensemble average and the realization-to-realization variability are needed.
Ideally, a dispersion model would provide a 3-D contour map of the hazard zone and estimate the concentration (or dosage) PDF throughout the plume’s domain.

- Ideally, a dispersion model would provide a 3-D contour map of the hazard zone and estimate the concentration (or dosage) PDF throughout the plume’s domain.

- Model Output

## Unpaired (quantile-quantile) 
comparisons of observations 
vs. predictions can be misleading.  

- comparisons of observations
- vs. predictions can be misleading.

- Observations that are paired
- in space and time give a more
- realistic picture of a model’s
- performance.

- Model Evaluation

## Models: Recommendations

- A carefully crafted management strategy, with a strong center of coordination and clear lines of responsibility, is essential to ensure further progress.  A** nationally coordinated effort **is needed to support and evaluate current models, and oversee future R&D,** **with focus on:
- exploring **new modeling constructs** for operational, urban use (e.g., short execution time, adaptive grids);
- developing **ensemble dispersion forecasts** on the urban scale **that quantify confidence levels;**
**assimilating** **meteorological and C/B/N sensor data** into models;
**conducting urban-field programs and** **wind-tunnel simulations** to test, evaluate, and improve models (proper experimental design is essential);

## Models: Recommendations (cont.)

- researching effects of **urban surfaces** on **urban meteorology**;
- building/maintaining 3D databases of **urban building and topography;**
- establishing an operational dispersion tracking and forecasting system in a large urban area (preferably in various types of urban areas), as a test bed for  understanding capabilities and limitations.

- This coordinated effort should make use of the considerable expertise that resides in universities, NWS forecast offices, the private sector, and federal agencies.