# Presentation: 184614

## NWS Forecast 
Evolution and Delivery
 in a 
Digital Era

Glenn Austin
Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services
David Ruth
Office of Science and Technology

Silver Spring, MD
June 6, 2006

**Evolution and Delivery**
** ****in a **
**Digital Era**
**Glenn Austin**
**Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services**
**David Ruth**
**Office of Science and Technology**
**Silver Spring, MD**
**June 6, 2006**

## National Digital Forecast Database

- GOAL:  Make NWS information available in digital form and available electronically.
- HISTORY:  NDFD has been operational since 2004.

## Grid Availability

**Data posted in WMO GRIB2 format at:**
- ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/..._[ ](ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/AR.conus/)_
**Decoder software:**
- Link: http://www.weather.gov/mdl/NDFD_GRIB2Decoder
- Function: Allows download and conversion to:
- Shape files (compatible with ESRI)
- Points, Simple polygons, Merged polygons
- netCDF
- GrADS
- Lat/lon grids, Projected grids
- Float files
- Comma Separated Values files
**Discussions underway with UNIDATA to host data**

## NDFD StatusNow available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/...

**Experimental elements:**
- QPF
- Snow Amount
- Sky Cover
- Significant Wave Height

**Operational elements:**
- Maximum Temperature
- Minimum Temperature
- Temperature
- Dew Point
- Probability of Precipitation
- Weather
- Wind Direction
- Wind Speed
- Apparent Temperature
- Relative Humidity

- ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/

- ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/

## Summer Releases

- TPC Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds (July) (TIN-xx issued June x)
- Experimental Real-Time Mesoscale hourly Analysis (August) (TIN-24 issued May 2)
- Day 1-3/4-7 file split (September) (TIN-30 issued May 9)

## National Digital Forecast DatabaseTo be available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/...

**Developmental elements (from WFOs):**
- Hazard grids
- Wind gusts
- Maximum Relative Humidity
- Minimum Relative Humidity

- ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/

## National Digital Forecast DatabaseTo be available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/...

**Developmental elements (from TPC):**
- Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >34kt (incremental)
- Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >34kt (cumulative)
- Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >50kt (incremental)
- Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >50kt (cumulative)
- Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >64kt (incremental)
- Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >64kt (cumulative)

- ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/

## Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed ProbabilityHurricane Wilma – Oct 2005 

## National Digital Forecast DatabaseTo be available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/...

**Developmental elements (from SPC):**
- Probability of Tornadoes
- Probability of Hail
- Probability of Severe Storm Winds
- Probability of Significant Tornadoes
- Probability of Significant Hail
- Probability Significant Severe Storm Winds
- Total Probability of Severe Storms

- ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/

## National Digital Forecast DatabaseTo be available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/...

**Developmental elements (from CPC):**
- Probability of 8-14 Day Temperature Above Normal
- Probability of 8-14 Day Temperature Below Normal
- Probability of 8-14 Day Precipitation Above Normal
- Probability of 8-14 Day Precipitation Below Normal
- Probability of 30 Day Temperature Above Normal
- Probability of 30 Day Temperature Below Normal
- Probability of 30 Day Precipitation Above Normal
- Probability of 30 Day Precipitation Below Normal
- Probability of 90 Day Temperature Above Normal
- Probability of 90 Day Temperature Below Normal
- Probability of 90 Day Precipitation Above Normal
- Probability of 90 Day Precipitation Below Normal

- ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/

## National Digital Guidance DatabaseNow available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/...

**Operational Air Quality elements:**
- 1 hour Ozone Concentration (3x)
- 8 hour Ozone Concentration (3x)

**Experimental Gridded MOS elements:**
- Maximum Temperature
- Minimum Temperature
- Temperature
- Dew Point
- Probability of Precipitation 06h
- Probability of Precipitation 12h
- Probability of Thunderstorms 03h
- Probability of Thunderstorms 06h
- Probability of Thunderstorms 12h
- Relative Humidity

**Experimental Air Quality elements:**
- 1 hour Surface Smoke
- 1 hour Vertical Smoke Integration
- 1 hour Ozone Concentration (5x)
- 8 hour Ozone Concentration (5x)

- ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/

- ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/

- ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.mosgfs/

## Ozone for full CONUS

## National Digital Guidance DatabaseTo be available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/...

**Experimental Gridded MOS elements:**
- Wind Direction
- Wind Speed
- Wind Gusts
- Sky Cover
- Precipitation Type
- Quantitative Precipitation – 06h
- Quantitative Precipitation – 12h
- Snowfall Amount

- ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.rtma/

- ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.mosgfs/

**Experimental Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis elements:**
- Temperature
- Dew Point
- Wind Direction
- Wind Speed
- Quantitative Precipitation
- Sky Cover

**Experimental Hurricane Storm-Surge Probabilities:**
- Probability of Exceeding 5 feet
- 10 Percent Exceedance Height

- ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/

## NDFD Capabilities in Development

- Day 1-3/Day 4-7 file split
- XML to query which grids have changed by element, projection, and WFO
- Experimental grids for Alaska
- Hourly grids on day 1
- 2.5 km grids
- Analysis of Record
- Probability grids that quantify uncertainty

## Technical Workshop for Digital Product Users

- PROPOSED DATE: November 2006
- LOCATION: Silver Spring, MD

## Questions, Comments?

- glenn.austin@noaa.gov
- 301-713-1858 x150
- david.ruth@noaa.gov
- 301-713-1768 x157
- http://weather.gov/ndfd/