# Presentation: 228049

## Harmful Algal Bloom Pilot Project The Beginnings of a Proposal

**IOOS Regional Coordination Workshop**
**November 7 – 9, 2006**

***Karenia brevis***

**Notes:**
USGSC asked me to prepare a preliminary draft of a HAB Pilot Project

## Harmful Algal Blooms

**Harmful Algal Blooms**

**Toxins**

**Hypoxia**

**+**

**Notes:**
Two broad categories of HABs, those that cause harm by producing toxins & those that cause harm through accumulations of biomass, e.g., bottom water hypoxia. Although the proposed PP focuses on a toxin producing HAB, the observing system will also contribute to detecting and predicting other harmful effects such as oxygen depletion.

## Why the Gulf of Mexico ?

**Of ~30 toxic species, K.b. has by far the greatest impact on health & well being**
**Neurotoxic shellfish poisoning (NSP)**
**Respiratory illness**
**> 5,000 /liter (0.05 ****μg /liter)**
**K.b. monitored routinely since ~1950**
**Pigmented, surface signature**
**Patches**
**Regional (multi – state) problem**
**Occur most frequently late summer – fall**
**“****Hot spots”**
**Blooms of *****Trichodesmium***** spp. often precede K.b. blooms**

***Karenia brevis***

**Why the Gulf of Mexico ?**
**Why *****K. brevis***** ?**

**Notes:**
Characteristics of the GoMx and K.b. that make them good targets of a Pilot Project.

## Workshop Reports Used to Prepare this Proposal

**Harmful Algal Blooms Observing System (HABSOS) Workshop Report, **_**2000**_** (http://www.hpl.umces.edu/projects/HABSOS.pdf)**
**Action Plan for Harmful Algal Blooms and the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System, **_**2004**_** (http://www.gulfbase.org/event/view.php?eid=habsosgcoos)**
** **
**Harmful Algal Research and Response: National Environmental Strategy **_**2005-2015**_**, A National Plan for Algal Toxins and Harmful Algal Blooms (http://www.esa.org/HARRNESS/)**
** **
_**2005**_** IGOS Coastal Theme Report (http://ioc.unesco.org/igospartners/)**

**Notes:**
Several reports and publications were used to prepare this first cut.....

## Gulf Action Plan & HARRNESS Recommend Actions that are Particularly Relevant to an IOOS Pilot Project on HABs

| OBJECTIVE | ACTION |
| --- | --- |
| Data Management | - Use DMAC plan as a road map |
| Monitoring & Surveillance | - Conduct sustained time series measurements of biological, chemical, & physical domains impacted by HABs
- Strengthen early warning systems
- Develop methodologies for rapid detection of HABs & toxins in the field |
| Ecology & Impacts | - Elucidate effects of eutrophication, over-fishing, & climate alteration on HABs  |
| Human & Animal Health | - Establish standard reporting procedures for HAB toxin incidents
- Develop new, cost-effective epidemiological methods appropriate for HABs |
| Models & Forecasting | - Develop and improve species-specific models that link physical-biological models
- Strengthen early warning systems |
| Controls & Mitigation | - Develop early warning systems, response plans, and methods to reduce exposure
- Improve coordination of responses across local-regional scales |
| Training, Education & Outreach | - Increase awareness of the effects of anthropogenic activities on HAB proliferation
- Train more taxonomist in classical & molecular techniques |

**Notes:**
Most notably, HARRNESS recommends actions that are particularly relevant to the development of a HABs PP.

## Purpose of this Report

**Identify user groups & specify their data & information requirements**
**Suggest pilot project objectives**
**Specify observing system requirements to be met through the combined use of *****in situ***** measurements & remote sensing**
**Suggest R&D priorities for improving operational capabilities**
**Initiate a process that will lead to a pilot project**
**Networks stakeholders from public & private sectors to**
**Implement an integrated, Gulf–wide HAB monitoring & forecasting system as an integral component of coastal IOOS &**
**Demonstrate “value added” by expanding the use of current observations made in support of other applications**

**Notes:**
This report is an attempt to accomplish 5 things....

## User Groups & Products Well Documentedin 2000 & 2004 Workshops 

**Federal & State Agencies**
**Public health**
**Resource management**
**Water quality**
**Industries**
**Tourist**
**Shellfish**
**At Risk Public**
**Educators**
**NGOs**

**Weekly Nowcasts**
**where & when blooms are likely to be initiated **
**based on environmental conditions**
**Alert/Nowcasts **
**location & areal extent of  new bloom **
**followed by daily nowcasts of location & extent**
**Daily, 3–day Forecasts**
**bloom trajectories once a bloom has been confirmed**

## Key Stakeholder OrganizationsThat Represent These Groups

**Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association ****(http://www-ocean.tamu.edu/GCOOS/RA)**
**SE Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association ****(http://www.secoora.org/)**
**Gulf of Mexico Alliance ****(http://www.dep.state.fl.us/gulf/default.htm)**

## Suggested Pilot Project ObjectivesCollaborate w/ key stakeholders to

**Expand/improve the efficiency of networks of responsible State agencies for **
**data & information exchange & **
**coordinated development of programs that monitor ecosystem conditions, shellfish, fish, & waterborne pathogens Gulf–wide **
**Expand volunteer networks of “beach keepers” **
**Using common standards & protocols for sampling & reporting**
**Modeled after the River Keeper program**
**Predict the onset of *****K. brevis***** blooms & their movement in shelf waters with known uncertainty**
**Using of ensemble modeling techniques.**
**Improve the cost-effectiveness of sampling regimes and the skill of model forecasts**
**OSSEs & OSEs**
**Test beds**

## Minimum Set of Observations Needed

**Forcings**
**Sea surface winds**
**Riverine inputs**
**Freshwater**
**Sediments**
**Nutrients**
**Atmospheric inputs**
**Freshwater**
**Nitrogen**
**Iron**
**Offshore Boundary Conditions**

**Ecosystem Condition**
**Surface fields**
**Waves**
**Currents**
**Temperature**
**Chlorophyll–a**
**Vertical profiles**
**Temperature & Salinity**
**Inorganic nutrients**
**Colored DOM**
**Chlorophyll–a**
***K. brevis***** cell density**

## Observing System RequirementsModified for the IGOS Coastal Theme Report

## 2 – Tiered Approach

**Tier 1: Continuous, Sustained Observations & Analyses**
**Space–based remote sensing**
**Chlorophyll-a, pigment ratios, suspended sediments & colored dissolved organic matter (SeaWiFS, MODIS, OCM, OSMI, MERIS)**
**Sea surface temperature (AVHRR)**
**Surface waves and slicks (scatterometry, SAR, HF radar) **
**Currents (altimetry, HF radar)**
**Sentinel stations & transects *****K. brevis “Hot Spots”***
***In situ***** measurements of key environmental variables**
***K. brevis***** abundance**

**Tier 2: Adaptive Sampling**
**Triggered by Tier 1 observations & analyses**
**Focus on the domain where a bloom is likely to occur or is occurring**
** **
**Increase time–space resolution of Tier 1 observations**
**Add new measurements as needed, e.g., *****K. brevis***** toxicity**

## Potential Adaptive Sampling Schemes

| Trigger | Objective | Adaptive Sampling |
| --- | --- | --- |
| (1) Environmental conditions favorable for a K.b. bloom and/or a Trichodesmium bloom  | Weekly nowcast of where & when a bloom is likely to occur | Monitor key environmental variables &
Phytoplankton species composition daily in the
targeted area in 3-D until a bloom occurs or
conditions change to unfavorable.

AUVs, mobile moorings, ship
based sampling  |
| (2) Detection of a chlorophyll-a patch during summer – fall  | Validate the indicator & determine patch size

An alert giving the location & areal extent of a new bloom followed by daily nowcasts of location and extent | One time, ship-based survey of the patch in 3-D to confirm the presence of a HAB species & estimate patch size; microscopic analysis and/or molecular probes

Aircraft-based remote surveys of the patch domain (using ocean-color sensors similar to the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) |
| (3) Validation that the chlorophyll-a patch is caused by K. brevis
 | Daily nowcasts of bloom status (growing or dissipating) & toxicity (low, moderate, high); 2-3 day forecasts the patch’s trajectory updated daily | Monitor patch in 3-D at 2-day intervals to estimate abundance and determine toxin levels per cell.

AUVs, mobile moorings, ship-based sampling, aircraft-based remote surveys of the patch domain (using ocean-color sensors similar to the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) 
 |

## Existing Building Blocks

**NOAA HAB Monitoring & Forecasting System – HAB Bulletin**
**Space–Based Remote Sensing**
**NASA**
**NOAA**
**GCOOS & SEACOOS**
**HF Radar**
**BreveBuster**
**NDBC Data Buoys, TYCOON, TABS, COMPS**
**SEAKEYS, NERRS**
**PORTS**
**Houston/Galveston Bay**
**Tampa Bay**

## Indicators of Research PrioritiesA Sampling of Ongoing R&D and Responsible PIs

**Remote Sensing (Bissett, Stumpf, Villareal)**
**Identification & monitoring nearshore HABs on the W. FL Shelf**
**Detecting K. brevis blooms in the western Gulf of Mexico**
**Validating remote detection of K. brevis**
***In Situ***** Sensing & Field Measurements (Campbell, Heil, Kirkpatrick, Lohrenz, Naar, Pierce, Van Dolah)**
**Eastern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Program**
**Distributed detection & adaptive 3–D mapping of HABs incorporating AUVs**
**Optical detection & assesments of K. brevis**
**Detection, toxicity characterization of brevetoxin & brevetoxin metabolites**
**Immunoassay for *****K. brevis***** monitoring**
**Structure, toxicity & persistence of brevetoxins responsible for NSP**
**Cellular mechanisms mediating bloom longevity in K. brevis**
**Identification of molecular regulators of K. brevis growth & toxicity**
**Modeling & Analysis (Bissett, Gross, Kamykowski, Stumpf)**
**Developing methods to use satellite imagery and in situ measurements for monitoring & forecasting HABs**
**Hyperspectral modeling of HABs on the W. FL Shelf**
**Laboratory & numerical modeling studies of K. brevis behavior to aid in predicting blooms**
**Economics (Larkin)**
**Economic effects of HABs on coastal communities & shellfish culture in Florida**

## Much More Needs Doing

**Assess current capabilities & costs of sustaining them**
**Specify requirements for DMAC & modeling**
**Perform a gap analysis of requirements vs capabilities**
**Provide a phased plan for filling gaps with cost estimates**
**Address the issue of effectively & efficiently incorporating advances in S&T into the operational system**
**Implement mechanisms for engaging key stakeholders**
**Address training, education & public outreach needs**

**Notes:**
Obviously, much more needs to be done....

## Hopefully This is a Reasonable Beginning