# Presentation: 763333

## National Hurricane ConferenceNavy Priorities and Initiatives for Tropical Cyclone Research

**Robert S. Winokur**
**Technical Director**
**Oceanographer of the Navy**
**March 2008**

## Key Discussion Points for Today

**Implications of new Maritime Strategy**
**Africa Partnership Station**
**Initiatives and priorities related to Tropical Cyclone Research**
**RTPs**
**NPOESS**
**NUOPC**

## Maritime Strategy Oct 2007“A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower”

- Six key tasks or *strategic imperatives*:
- Regionally concentrated, forward-deployed task forces to limit regional conflict
- Deter major power war
- Win our Nation’s wars as part of a joint campaign
- Contribute to homeland defense in depth
***Foster and sustain cooperative relationships with more international partners***
***Prevent or mitigate disruptions or crises***

## Maritime Strategy – Implications for Naval Oceanography

**Warfighting readiness:**
**Environmental support globally**
**Leverage R&D initiatives to ensure warfighting benefits**
**Manage risk and understand uncertainty of predictions**
**Partnership building**
**National and international relationships to advance common national interests and global maritime security**
**Humanitarian assistance and disaster response**
**Rapid and sustained non-combatant evacuations**
**Potential impacts of climate change on**
**    ****natural disasters, social instability and regional crises**

## Africa Partnership Station

**One of a series to build maritime safety and security in Africa**
**Focus on Gulf of Guinea**
**Aligned with broad international and US**
**	****non-military objectives**
**NOAA involvement:**
** ****Fisheries, meteorology,  hydrography**
***NOAA Pirata buoy***
**HSV Swift, USS FT. McHenry**
**Training for nine African nations**

## Rapid Transition Process (RTP)

- Meeting the challenge of timely integration and transition from Research (6.2) to Operations (6.4)
- Oceanographer of the Navy / Office of Naval Research / Commander Naval METOC Command
-     / Program Executive Office
- Rapid 3-4 year transition
- Consistent with CNO Strategic Plan
- Good Science – Clear Impact – Navy Relevance

## RTPs Applied to Tropical Cyclones

**DIRECT**
**FY 2001:  Improvements to Tropical Cyclone Model Forecasts**
**FY 2002: Modeling Tropical Cyclone Structure and Track**
**INDIRECT**
**FY 2006:  4DVAR for Global Atmospheric Weather Prediction**
**FY 2007:  Quantifying Uncertainty through Global and Mesoscale Models**
**FY 2008:  High Resolution NOGAPS**

## 4DVAR for Global Atmospheric Weather Prediction

- 4D assimilation provides a continuous picture of the atmosphere over the observation time
- Provides a consistent framework for observations of cloud, precipitation, water vapor, ozone and aerosols affecting model temperature, humidity and wind fields
- Particularly relevant in data rich NPOESS era

## Quantifying Uncertainty through Global and Mesoscale Models

- Global - mesoscale ensemble forecasting system
- Provide high-fidelity, dynamically consistent probabilistic forecasts and estimates of uncertainty
- Direct support to Tactical decision Aids (TDA)
- Indirect but important enhancement to TC forecasts

## High Resolution NOGAPS

- Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
- Increased resolution will improve capability to assimilate observations and predict finer scale features such as TCs
- Proposed development
- -   27 km horizontal resolution (current 50 km)
- -   60 vertical levels (current 30 levels)
- -   semi-Lagrangian moisture advection

## NPOESS Next-Generation Sensors and applications to Tropical Cyclone research, modeling, and predictability  

Includes associated algorithm development at Navy Centrals (FNMOC and NAVOCEANO), and Ground Segments/ IDPS (Interface Data Processing Segment)
IDPS Installs at FNMOC Monterey and NAVOCEANO (completed by November 2012), improving time latency and direct ingest into 4DVAR NOGAPS

METOP, NPP Exploitation

**Includes associated algorithm development at Navy Centrals (FNMOC and NAVOCEANO), and Ground Segments/ IDPS (Interface Data Processing Segment)**
**IDPS Installs at FNMOC Monterey and NAVOCEANO (completed by November 2012), improving time latency and direct ingest into 4DVAR NOGAPS**
**METOP, NPP Exploitation**

**Improving Quality, Quantity, and Time Latency of Remotely Sensed Data Critical to improved diagnosis of intensity change, location of TC Center, and better track/landfall forecasts.**

- NPOESS

## NPOESS Sensors with TC Applications for USN include:

Improved Imaging (VIIRS, MIS)
Improved retrievals and soundings (CrIS/ATMS), with more channels and higher vertical resolution
Hyperspectral capability (CrIS)
Possibility of passive ocean surface wind vectors 
Improved hurricane ocean heat content products (NAVO) 

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Web Page (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html)

Host imagery products
Currently includes WINDSAT, AMSU, AMSR
Will likely include METOP, NPP, NPOESS derived products

**Improved Imaging (VIIRS, MIS)**
**Improved retrievals and soundings (CrIS/ATMS), with more channels and higher vertical resolution**
**Hyperspectral capability (CrIS)**
**Possibility of passive ocean surface wind vectors **
**Improved hurricane ocean heat content products (NAVO) **
**NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Web Page (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html)**
**Host imagery products**
**Currently includes WINDSAT, AMSU, AMSR**
**Will likely include METOP, NPP, NPOESS derived products**

- NPOESS Sensors

## NPOESS Sensors: TC Structure

**SSM/I 37 GHz H-Pol**

**WindSat 37 GHz H-Pol**

_**MIS Sensor: IMAGERY**_
**If based on WINDSAT design (large antenna), then resolution at all frequencies is improved over**
**SSMI **
**Compare 37GHz images to the right, note improved resolution, and thus enhanced TC Structure, with WINDSAT 37GHz**
**Note structure of spiral bands, inner core, and double eye wall **

**Imagery courtesy of NRL Monterey Code 7500**

**Notes:**
  WindSat’s huge antenna is ~ 4 times larger than SSM/I’s and makes possible superior resolutions at all frequencies.  37 GHz example shown here in order to illustrate how TC storm structure is resolved in WINDSAT but not in coincident SSM/I data. Double eyewalls are viewed with WINDSAT.  WindSat’s huge antenna is ~ 4 times larger than SSM/I’s and makes possible superior resolutions at all frequencies.  
Acknowledgments: NRL’s tropical cyclone web team (Jeff Hawkins, Joe Turk, Tom Lee, Kim Richardson, Buck Sampson, Cristian Mitrescu, John Kent and Rob Wade (SAIC), and Steve Miller (CSU/CIRA)

Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA 93923
POC: jeff.hawkins@nrlmry.navy.mil

Special thanks to the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) for near real-time access to global SSM/I, SSMIS and WindSat digital data sets.

## NPOESS: VIIRS Potential - Nighttime Visible 

**Upper-Level**
**Circulation**

**Lower-Level**
**Circulation **
**~200km SE**

**Examples of low-level TC structure, location of center revealed through reflected moonlight algorithm using the DMSP Operational Linescan System [OLS]—plan to exploit this capability further with VIIRS Channels**

**NPOESS: VIIRS Potential - Nighttime Visible**

**Imagery courtesy of NRL Monterey Code 7500**

**Notice IR image (left) and nighttime visible (right) in the cases of Georgette (top) and Flossie (Bottom) **

**Notes:**
Georgette:  mid and upper-level clouds would lead the analyst to an incorrect center position while Flossie has no obvious circulation in the IR since the background SSTs are very close to the cloud tops temperatures of the low level stratus associated with this system as it spins down.  However, a well-defined “residual eye” in the nighttime visible imagery from the DMSP OLS data due to sufficient lunar illumination.

Acknowledgments: NRL’s tropical cyclone web team (Jeff Hawkins, Joe Turk, Tom Lee, Kim Richardson, Buck Sampson, Cristian Mitrescu, John Kent and Rob Wade (SAIC), and Steve Miller (CSU/CIRA)

Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA 93923
POC: jeff.hawkins@nrlmry.navy.mil

Special thanks to the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) for near real-time access to global DMSP OLS digital data sets.

## National Unified Operational Prediction CapabilityPartnership (NUOPC)

- Established to ***enable*** a Tri-Agency ***joint global atmospheric ensemble forecast system***,
- _Integration_ of on-going efforts _coordinated_ by a tri-agency management organization

**Notes:**
First, to make sure we are all on the same page, I would like to define the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability Project.
Its purpose is to enable a single US operational global atmospheric ensemble system. This will require cooperation between the three agencies on a number of levels.
It is more an integration of ongoing efforts than a new effort. It is doing what we always do only together.
And it is not a new program, an acquisition, or a unification of agency missions. 
We will keep doing what we always do, only better.

## NUOPC Vision (2015)

**Tri-Agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs**
**National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF)**
**Managed operational ensemble diversity **
**Joint ensemble **
**Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather**
**Mission Specific ensemble products**
**National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion**

**Notes:**
This is the vision of the operational weather agencies.

## The NUOPC Partnership

**Coordinated technology development for future systems**
**Interoperable model architecture to allow for exchange of technology at the component level**
**Common Developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (DTC or VTC)**
**Prioritization of common operational needs**
**Aligned transition processes**
**Joint ensemble system with managed diversity**
**Share operational computing costs**
**Maintain capability of each agency to meet Agency unique operational requirements through driving downstream applications**
**Significant acceleration in operational performance**
**Project Manager responsible to Tri-Agency Executive Steering Group**

**Notes:**

During our workshops, we examined a number of alternatives, from minimal coordination to joint operations. This is the alternative that was chosen by the agency principals – Coordinated Research and Development with Coordinated Transition and Operations.
We have listed only a few of the key attributes here. These were not arrived at cavalierly but through careful deliberation and compromise.

Coordinated internal development among Tri-Agencies
Coordinated technology development for future systems
Interoperable infrastructure (coding standards, file names, interfaces, etc.)
Interoperable model architecture for GNWP (e.g. ESMF) to allow for exchange of technology at the component level
Facilitated entrainment of the external development community
A developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (e.g. DTC or VTC)
Interoperable architecture based on common requirements. 
Prioritization of development requirements
Coordinated acquisition investment
Standardized transition process
Common ensemble system with managed diversity
Coordinated operations for ensemble prediction, potentially including unified ensemble post processing with a single promulgating agency
Assumes working within a unified system - unified technology without unifying the use of technology 
Could include common budget for ensemble post processing

## Role of the Meteorological Community

**Participation in committees defining NUOPC concepts and plans:**
**Common Model Architecture Committee**
**Technology Transition Processes Committee**
**Unified Ensemble Operations Committee (Information Assurance Panel)**
**Support national research and development Agenda – R&D community involvement**
**Support developmental standards and**
**    ****contribute to research needs of the**
**    ****operational community.**

**Notes:**
NUOPC is an agreement between the three operational weather organizations. We would like to invite participation from the broader community at the very beginning – as we define NUOPC.

## Where We Are Today

**Two-year Phase I approved by Agency Principals**
**Full operational capability by 2015 with early IOC for select phases**
**Memorandum of Agreement drafted**
**Initial implementation plan and concept of operations developed**
**Interim Project Manager selected**
**Committee process approved**
**Requesting nominations for interim committees**
**Town hall session at AMS**
**Scheduling a follow on outreach meeting with other Federal agencies (FAA, NASA, NSF, etc.) to provide update and reaffirm support**

**Notes:**
Follow slide.

## In SummaryNavy Remains Committed

- New Maritime Strategy – Cooperative relationships and humanitarian assistance
- Parntnership building
- Joint programs – NUOPC
- Transition from research to operations – RTPS
- Preparing for NPOESS
- Reduce uncertainty in forecasts