# Presentation: 442324

## AvnFPS Version 3OverviewApril 2005

- AvnFPS Version 3OverviewApril 2005

## Objectives

- Be familiar with the differences between AvnFPS 2.0 vs 3.0
- Introduce you to the new guidance sources and monitoring capabilities (Eta-BufKit, LLWS)
- Introduce Conditional Climatology as a quality control tool and a forecast tool.
- Introduce you to the individualized “Stats on Demand” verification program.

## Contributors

- Mike Graf (NWSH)
- Jerry Griffin (NWSTC)
- David Hotz (WFO MRX)
- Joe Palko (WFO PBZ)
- Stephen Parker (WFO MRX)
- Bob Reed (WFO PBZ)
- Cammye Sims (WFO STO)

- Additional acknowledgements:  Staff at EAX,
- especially Suzanne Fortin, John Tatum, Adrian Faimon

## Differences Start up GUI

**Notes:**
One of the main differences you see is a Climate button and a TAF button. The TAF button starts your aviation monitor and the climate button starts the conditional climatology tools.

Additional Information

Pyro -  What does this mean. Pyro is short for PYthon Remote Objects.

It is Distributed Object Technology that allows the AvnPFS client GUI on workstation to connect to the severs and vice versa.  

What could it mean in the future.  Means that you don’t have to be at the site to necessarily run AvnFPS 3.0     Some possibilities:  the CWSU’s could launch the AvnFPS 3.0 GUI to view conditional climatological data base.
This is currently being tested at the CWSU in Fort Worth.

It is much faster than logging in remotely and redisplaying the GUI back across the network.  Instead the GUIs run locally and only very small data files are transferred across the network.

## Differences in Main GUI

- 2.0

- 3.0

- Servers Status

**Notes:**
Now let’s talk about the differences in the main GUI between 2.0 and 3.0.

What used to be TAFGen in 2.0 becomes TAFEditor

TWBGen becomes TWB Editor

BackUp button remains unchanged to select you backup sites TAF/TWEBs.

Logs now called Queue    (ways to view what has happened for example transmission server logs.  Did a TAF actually transmit.   Will turn red if there is a problem.

The Queue button to the right of the Server Status Indicators allows you to view and modify the forecast transmission queue. (This is the list of products that are waiting for a specific time before they are transmitted.) The background color of the Queue button reflects the status of the most recent transmission attempt: green for success, red or failure. Selecting the Queue button launches the AvnFPS Transmission Queue Dialog. 

The server status lights are green when you are connected to the servers. If the servers lights are red, then most likely the network connection failed or the notification server is down.

First try restarting your AvnFPS GUI, if unsucessful then call NCF.

## Wx Plot Display

**Notes:**
The Plot display shows your TAF (Blue), Past 24hrs of MTRs (Bright Red) and then allows you to overlay AVN-MOS, NGM-MOS and ETA bufr data. In this example we have Eta bufr data ( Dark Red) overlayed.

## Archived Wx Plot

**Notes:**
METARs and TAFs displayed. TAF is blue and METARs in red.

This is displaying a previous TAF overlayed with the past 24 hrs of observations. 

## Monitor Enhancements

- Persistence
- Lightning
- Grid(s)

- LLWS
- Hover Feature
- Status Window

**Notes:**
We will now look at the new monitor enhancements with the AvnFPS, and review some of the current features.  They are the following: Persistence button, lightning, grid(s), Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS), mouse hover feature, and bottom status window.

## Persistence

**Notes:**
In 3.0 the forecaster can change the Persistence from 1, 2 or 3 hours on the fly.   In 2.0 this was not configurable by the user. Default was 2 hours.  In 3.0 it is configurable on the fly by simply right clicking on the Persistence 1 hr  label just below the XMIT light.       It is not obvious at all that this is a clickable button.  

Why would you want to change the persistence from 1 to 2 to 3 hours?  You might have a big change group at 3 hours ahead.  ( fog lifting and you might want to monitor the current Weather against the TAF at 3 hours ahead, then as you get closer to the event you could decrease the persistence to 2 and then 1.   It might aid in making a decision to amend earlier rather than waiting till the change group does or does not happen . 

Additional Information

Persistence NUM 
The persistence module assumes that the current weather will not change for the next NUM hours. Weather elements and alerts are the same as for METAR, with the exception of TEMPO check. The value of NUM is selectable via a popup menu. 

## rltgCompares TAF to the Lightning Probability Forecast

- OK
- KTRI 192320Z 200024 19007KT P6SM BKN040
-       TEMPO 0003 2SM TSRA OVC030CB
-      FM0600 VRB03KT P6SM SCT040
-      FM1600 31007KT P6SM FEW050
- Probability 20 %

**rltg****Compares TAF to the Lightning Probability Forecast**

**Notes:**
The rltg column compares the lightning probability forecast to the TAF.  Ts lightning probability alert is issued in two cases:

Either the TAF does not forecast TS and the probability exceeds certain thresholds, or TS is forecasted, but the guidance is small.  When you place your cursor over ts, a box will appear displaying the current TAF and guidance probability.

Yellow if TS is forecast, but probability is less than or equal to 20 percent. Red if the probability is > 40 percent and TS is not in forecast.

If if rltg does not display at your office, then have your focal point config it.

## rltg (derived from NCEP 0-3hr Prob CG Lightning)

**Notes:**
The lightning probability forecast from NCEP is used issued every half hour and is valid for the next 3 hours.  The graphic product
can be found in AWIPS D-2D under the NCEP Hydro menu, then in the 0-3 hour radar-based QFP sub-menu.

The example illustrates how the 0-3 hour Probability CG lightning
product is forecasting the thunderstorms over Kentucky to move east southeast into northern Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

## Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS)

- Computed from a radar observation (VWP), NOAA Wind Profiler and the METAR at the TAF site.

**Notes:**
The new version of the AvnFPS will monitor the potential of Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS).  The monitor will compare surface Metar winds with VAD Wind Profile (VWP) and/or NOAA wind profiler winds.

## Hold the Cursor over “WS”

- OK.............................................................
- KCHA 251722Z 251818 VRB03KT P6SM   SKC.
- FM2100 21008KT P6SM SCT020...
- Remainder of TAF.........................................
- ................................................................
- KMRX   251935Z   WS020/25007KT   (0.02 1/s)

- Wind shear computation combines wind at this level in hundreds of feet with latest METAR

- Shear value

- No threshold met

**Notes:**
Here is an example of when you hover over the WS light:

The WS is green in this case, meaning we do not meet the high or medium thresholds.

Light will turn yellow when ever “medium “ wind shear value is reached  (default 0.12),  Red whenever  “High” level is reached (default 0.17). The wind shear units are 1/sec. Wind speed difference (m/s) divided by thickness (m) = 1/sec.  

LLWS Monitoring Limitations:

Lack of scatters in the atmosphere will limit the number of wind fields in
the VWP.  This will limit the ability for the AvnFPS to detect the potential
of LLWS.

Birds and insects can also contaminate the VWP wind field which could
produce incorrect alerts from the LLWS monitoring.

Please remember that the LLWS alert is a tool and should not be acted
upon without further investigation.

Additional Information

Shear is recomputed every volume scan at the moment.  The developer is looking a Kalman filter technique to better estimate the shear and  hopefully reduce transient alerts when shears are very close to the thresholds.   Usually you have the TAF site configure for one nearby radar site. AvnFPS 3.0  gives the focal point the ability to view the comparison to several radar sites.  The alerts will trigger when either reaches the threshold discussed earlier.    

Technically the AVNFPS tries to get an estimate of the 2000 foot wind so given that, this typically a true estimate at a TAF site if it is in the ballpark of 20 miles from the radar.   So sites can determine if they want to assign a radar to a particular TAF site or not.  Or perhaps put in a Downstream radar to get alerts sooner of possible LLWS.  The Focal point will have to do this as it is not configurable by each individual forecaster.

## Grid Monitor

**Notes:**
In 2.0, the Grid checks were all combined into one element, and mouse hover over only showed the possible inconsistencies. 

In 3.0 the grid check lights are split into 3 different elements.   They are wnd,  wx, and sky.  When you hover the alert element, you see the alert as well as the actual TAF, and the TAF constructed from the grid data.

Additional information

   Grids 
The guidance prepared by GFE is split into 3 groups: wnd 
Wind Alerts on discrepancies in wind speed and direction
Wx Weather elements: precipitation and obstruction to vision occur in TAF and not in METAR or vice-versa
Sky cover Alert if TAF and METAR sky covers do not match

## 3.0 Hover Over

**Notes:**
Now in AvnFPS 3.0, the mouse hovering over left most button (KPIT button)  gives you nothing, 

BUT hovering over each respective weather element shows not only that specific alert, but also the current TAF and MTR all together. 

Here I’m hovering over the yellow wind element for KPIT and see the alert, as well as the TAF and MTR.

Additional information

Something new in AvnFPS 3.0.  In an effort to reduce chasing OBS.   “Betweeners” are handled a little differently.   For example If you are forecasting a CIG of 2000 feet in the predominate Group and a cig of 900 feet in your tempo group,  and the MTR comes in at 1500 feet, and it stays this way for a while, you will not get an alert until 50 percent of the time has passed in your tempo group.  

## Status Window

**Notes:**
Another new feature in 3.0 is in the bottom most window.  Similar to the messages in GFE, you get the status of what AvnFPS is doing now.  In this example, you can see that AvnFPS was checking lightning data for site MGW.   Message here are only displayed for a very short time ( 10 seconds), so if you miss it or would like to view past messages, you can click on the raised button on the bottom right corner. Again it only has message received from the current AvnFPS 3.0 GUI session.  If you just started it up on your shift, you will not see anything here prior to you starting it. 

## 3.0 Editor Changes

- Syn QC
- Climo QC
- Wx QC
- Eta Profile Guidance
- MOS Formatted TAFs

**Notes:**
There are several changes to the Editor in 3.0. 

If you recall in 2.0 you had a QC button.  In 3.0, the QC button has been changed to Syn QC (syntac quality control)

Climate QC  (more discussed later) will check your TAF against a 30 year climate database for that site and alert you if you are forecasting ”rare” events, or something that has never occurred in the past. 

WX Check button is new.  You will find this feature useful for eliminating those times when you send out a TAF and perhaps missed seeing the latest METAR and you have an automatic amendment . 

Also in the editor you will notice that the insert and wrap buttons have been moved from the pull down menus to the right of the “tools”  near the bottom of the editor.

A new Tab in 3.0 called ETA Profile Viewer is located in the Guidance Viewer Window.

MAV/NGM guidance now has a smart tool to create a guidance TAF 

You will also notice options of “raw”, “long”, “short” for formatting of MOS guidance and Eta Profile .  

## Climate QC

**Notes:**
Climate QC is designed to alert you when you are forecasting a rare event.  

Here are examples of 2 alerts produced by the Climate QC button. 

Green indicates rare events. Orange indicate “no similar events in database”.

The upper one shows a rare event.   You can see in the hover over button that out of a total of 25441 cases in the 30 year climate data base this site, that a observation with similar categories has only occurred 2 times in the past. 

Below the numbers are some suggested items you might change in order for the forecast to be less “rare”.

 Typically the order of these suggestions are statistically what you might try first in order to make the forecast a more common occurrence.

It suggests trying...Moderate Precipitation, Better Visibility, Back or Veer Wind direction, Lower visibility. 

Although these suggestions may seem like they contradict each
It is essentially telling you to try a different visibility or different wind direction.     In this example I changed the VSBY to P6SM and ran CLI QC again and the green alert disappeared.

The Lower hover over button shows another CLI qc example.  In this case there is no past data in the climate database that matched the forecast for this time of the year and this time of the day.  

This example was mid February down wind of the Great lakes.   Typically ceilings are lower if the visibility is as low as 1 mile.  In this case I lowered the ceiling to 2000 feet, reran the CLI QC and the orange alert disappeared.

Additional Information

The suggestions are based on an algorithm that makes an attempt to determine more plausible weather based on conditional probability estimates. See AvnFPS System Users Manual Section C  Climate Quality Control. 

## Example of Wx Chk

**Notes:**
Here is an example of a  Wx check alert.  (Wind Speed or Gust Difference Greater than or equal to 10 kts with either wind speed greater than or equal to 12kts.) 

 Wx Check checks the TAF(s) you have in the editor (not issued) against the current METARs and highlights amendment criteria as if issued. 

Additional Information

Wx Chk 
The weather check is intended for a quick check for changing conditions while forecasts are prepared, or when a routine issue forecast is prepared well in advance of the transmission window. If current observation and the weather in the first line of the forecast do not match, the line will be highlighted as below. 

## ETA Profile Viewer

- Displays hourly ETA model guidance (out to 30 hours) for a selected site.

**Notes:**
Here is an example the Guidance viewer window.  A new option is the “Eta Profile” tab. 

You select the Eta-profile data by clicking on the ETA-Profile tab (orange arrow).  You can select the site from the Site ID list (yellow arrow). All of the sites currently being monitored will be available in the pull-down list.  Eta model data are available from the current hour out to 30 hours. 

The Get Data button (Blue Arrow) is used to to populate the MOS and Eta Profile data in the viewer.

This must be pressed initially to view the data, but once it is invoked, you need not click it until the new model run.

## New formatter for MOS guidance.

**Notes:**
When displaying the AVN MOS , NGM Mos and Eta Profile guidance in the lower window (Guidance Viewer window) 2.0 had a formatter that would only show changes every 3 hours.  Now 3.0 incorporates a more smarter formatter to produce a TAF.

The smarter formatter is activated when the “short” button is depressed. 

 If you choose the “long” option, you will get the same formatter that was used in 2.0 that displays change groups every hour for the “eta-profile” and every 3 hours for the AVN-MOS and NGM-MOS.

The “Raw” option shows the raw unformatted guidance data. 

If you want to copy any or a portion of the guidance TAF, you can then right click and copy into the editor. 

## Conditional Climatology

- Historical record of past events
- Guidance on event durations and intensity trends
- Useful to prevent forecasting an event that has little chance of occurrence.
- Does not identify physical processes
- Does not account for extreme or unusual events

**Notes:**
In this section we will discuss a new feature in 3.0 – Conditional Climatology.  

It can provide you with a historical record of past events and can offer guidance on expected conditions in the next few hours. It can provides clues on event durations and intensity trends.

An example of how conditional climatology might be useful would be trying to decide when and how rapidly the morning fog and stratus was going to lift and dissipate at one of your TAF sites.

It can serve as a reality check to prevent over forecasting events that don’t occur that often...such as overforecasting a very low cloud ceiling or visibility. 

Keep in mind there are limitations
Physical processes are not considered.   You should first assess the environmental conditions to insure that the atmosphere can support the weather phenomena indicated in the climatology. 
2. The period of record can be restricted
3. It does not account for extreme or rare events.   

For example let’s suppose you have a rare snow event during a particular month where climatology you don’t receive much snow. You must assess how the snow cover will affect the microclimate around the TAF site. Let’s suppose a warm advection pattern sets up moving over the snow field. The Conditional Climatology may not capture the effect of warm air advection over the snow cover, which could result in much lower ceilings and visibilities than what climatologically occurs during that time period. 

## Climatology Tools

- METAR Tool
- Renders 30 year NCDC data observation history in METAR format.
- Climatology Statistics Viewer
- Forecaster sets filter.
- Displays histograms of climatological frequency.
- Creates guidance TAF too.

**Notes:**
There are 2 new tools that will allow you to view climatology data.
The first is a METAR tool that will displays METARS observations for a particular site from a 30 year database.

The second tool available is the Climatology Statistics Viewer or what we like to call the Climate GUI. This tool will allow one to search the METAR database for current conditions or for criteria you specify over a specific time period.

Histograms of climatology frequency are displayed.

The Climate GUI tool will also create guidance TAFs.

Now let’s go into more detail about how to use each program and how to incorporate the information into your aviation forecast.

## Conditional Climatology

**Notes:**
When you start up the GUI you can click CLIMATE.  You get the choice of METARs and Stats.

There are two ways of starting the conditional climatology software. 

 You can start the program by pressing the “Climate” on the top of the monitoring screen.  You can also start the program at the initial pop-up screen by pressing the “Climate” button, then press the “Stats” button.

## METAR History

**Notes:**

When you click on the Metar button here is an example of what you will see.  

METAR Display
The Historical METAR Tool reconstructs hourly and special weather reports from the climatological database and renders them in the form of METARs. Each report contains as many of the following weather elements as are available: wind, visibility, significant weather, temperature, dew point, and 6- and 24-hr precipitation amount. 

Important
The records in the database are merged from several data sources and the first records predate the era of METARs in the US. Thus the reports displayed are not true METARs.

## Climatology Statistics Tool:

**Notes:**
Here is an example of what you will see when you launch the conditional climatology tool. 

Climatological Statistics Tool
The Climatological Statistics Tool searches the climatological database for observations that match criteria you specify. It then reports the results as a series of histograms. The tool also uses a time-lag matching technique to generate a guidance TAF based on observations found in the climatological database. There are two ways to control the search process, they are METAR-based and selection-based. 

The Climatological Statistics Tool is divided into several sections. A set of action buttons in the upper left corner control most of the database search capabilities. The Time Range Selection section controls time matching during the database search. The contents of this section change depending on whether a search is METAR-based or selection-based. The Current Weather and the Forecasted Weather Elements sections specify the weather elements that will be used for the database search. The Forecast, Conditional Probabilities and Days sections show the search results. The IDs of stations that are available in the database are shown in the Stations section.

## METAR-based Search

**Notes:**
Lets talk about how to perform a Metar based search.  A Metar based search utilizes a METAR to find similar 
observations in the historical database.

To perform a METAR-based search: 
Select the Use current METAR button. If it was off, the contents of the Time Range Selection section will change. 
Use the Stations list and the Get METAR button to load the current METAR for the site of interest. The latest METAR observation will appear in the METAR window. This window is editable, and the report itself can be modified. Use the Matched elements toggles to select which weather elements will be matched. 
Set the time range values for your search: 
The Month button allows you to specify the month used in the search. Generally, the current month is sufficient. 
The Days button specifies a range of days that will be used when searching. In the example, the date of the METAR is the 12th of the current month, and the day range is set to 20. That means the search will span 20 days either side of the 12th of the current month--a window of 41 days. 
The Hours button specifies a range of hours that will be used when searching. In the example, the hour of the METAR is the 1900 UTC, and the hour range is set to 1. That means the search will span times from 1800 UTC to 2059 UTC. 
If you expect a change in one or more weather elements, use the Forecast Hour button to specify the number of hours in the future when the change will occur. You must also use the Forecasted Weather Elements section to specify the changed value(s). 
If you selected a Forecast Hour in the Time Range Selection section, then use the option menus in the Forecasted Weather Elements section to choose proper value(s). Avoid selecting too many elements, or no matches will be found. 
Select the Show action button. The Forecast, Days, and Conditional probabilities sections will update after several seconds. 

## Slide 28

**Notes:**
Now, the conditional climatology forecast has been produced, and the results of the search can be 
found on the bottom left of the screen.  

To use the results of the search: 
A 6-h TAF forecast will be displayed in the Forecast text window. No attempt is made to combine similar groups in this guidance TAF. 
The Days list will show dates for which there was a match. If you select an item from this list, a popup text window will display a list of reconstructed METAR reports for that day. 
The bottom part of the GUI consists of six histograms displaying probability distributions for the forecast hour selected by the Stats for hour button. You can quickly switch between forecast hours. 
It is important to note the number of observations and days found during the search.  In this case,
   the search only found 3 days and 9 observations.  A low number of days and observations found
   might reduce your confidence of the forecasts.

Additonal information

Note
The sum of all probabilities on a histogram may exceed 100 percent. The program counts a hit when particular weather element occured (precipitation, obscuration), or was within a certain range (wind direction and speed, visibility, ceiling). The denominator in the probabiity ratio is the number of days, and usually there will be some change in weather conditions within the 2 hour window used to collect matching events. 

## Slide 29

**Notes:**
We are still performing a Metar based search, however, we have reduced the number of  weather elements utilized in the conditional climatology statistics by pressing on the check-buttons below the observation.   Now you must hit the Show button to perform another search.

The example shows that only the wind direction element was remained turned on.  You will notice that by reducing the weather elements, the number of historical observations found will increase.

If you expect certain weather elements will change over the 1 to 6 hour time-frame then you can modify the forecast elements.  The example shows the wind direction has been changed to more of a southwest direction by the next two hours.  In the TAF forecast, the wind direction did change to the wind direction category
we requested.

By pressing on one of the days on the button left entry list, you will be able to display the list of observations for that day shown on the next slide.

## Slide 30

**Notes:**
The Metars display will show a list of all of the observations during that Day.  The display allows you to look at the full observation.

## Selection Based Search

**Notes:**
Lets talk about how to perform a Selection based search.  First, you must turn off the “Use current
Metar” checkbutton.   A Selection based search utilizes only the elements selected in the forecasted weather elements section to find similar observations in the historical database.  Any data in the current weather
Window (Metar matched elements) is not used.

Note that Time Range Selection group has different content. Like the METAR-based search, the menus for selection of the month and number of days are present. The idea is to choose some weather element values of which you are reasonably sure, then let the program to fill in the gaps and generate a full forecast for the time set in the Time Range Selection section. The guidance TAF will include occasional weather as appropriate. 

To perform a selection-based search: 
De-select the Use current METAR button. If it was on, the contents of the Time Range Selection section will change. 
Select a station from the Stations list. The contents of the Current Weather section do no matter. 
Set the time range values for your search: 
The Month button allows you to specify the month used in the search. Generally, the current month is sufficient. 
The Days button specifies a range of days that will be used when searching. In the example, the date is set to the 12th of November, and the day range is set to 20. That means the search will span 20 days either side of the 12th of November - a window of 41 days. 
The Hours button specifies a range of hours that will be used when searching. In the example, the hour is set to 1400 UTC, and the hour range is set to 1. That means the search will span times from 1300 UTC to 1559 UTC. 
The D: widget allows to set the day of the month. 
The H: widget allows you to set the hour of the day. 
Use the option menus in the Forecasted Weather Elements section to choose proper value(s). Avoid selecting too many elements, or no matches will be found.
Press the Show  button to get the forecast and histograms.

The forecast will only be for the day and hour selected.

## Slide 32

**Notes:**
We are now performing a selection based search.  The day remains the 2nd and the hour is 13 UTC.

We selected a visibility of  greater than or equal to 6 miles with rain.  The conditional climatology will look through historical records to come up with the best match and forecast for the current hour.  The histograms below will show the probability for other matches of clouds, visibility, precipitation, etc.

Reasons for using the selection based search:

 Allows you to gather conditional climatology forecast given specified forecast elements beyond
    the 6 hour time-frame.
2) Allows a forecaster to gain additional knowledge of the climatology of an airport.  This is especially
    useful for new forecasters or forecasters moving to a new office.

Remember, to look at the number of observations and days found during the search.  If the numbers
Are low, then your confidence of the forecast may also be low.

## Slide 33

**Notes:**
In this example we selected a Northeast wind direction between 22-67 degrees.  The conditional climatology will look through historical records to come up with the best match and forecast for the current month, the 2nd Day and at hour 13 UTC.  

## Stats On Demand.  

- Individualized Aviation Verification Program
- Website - obtain from your Aviation Focal point
- Importance of NWS Aviation Program
- Safety and efficiency
- One of five GPRA goal areas controlled by WFOs,
- The National Goal of POD and FAR is based on the IFR subset, defined as Ceilings _>_ 500 ft & <1000 ft, and Visibility _>_ 1 mile & <3 mile
- (GPRA – Government Performance and Results Act)

**Notes:**
Stats on Demand Introduction...

The Stats on Demand Verification Program was developed to provide Forecasters with an easy way of reviewing how well their aviation forecasts compared against the observations.

AvnFPS 3.0 assigns a forecaster number to each TAF issued.  The 3.0 software then sends this information every 6 hours to the central server so that your individualized stats can be compiled in real time .  

Instead of now just receiving stats on demand for your office, you will be able to view your own personal aviation verification stats.

Website is internal to the NWS, Obtain from Aviation Focal Point. Do not distribute outside of your office. 

Note: You must create your forecaster information before you can view your individual forecast statistics.

The Stats on Demand Program was developed to provide feedback to help you improve your aviation forecasts. Timely and accurate weather information and forecasts create a a more safe and efficient operation of the of the National Airspace System (NAS).

The NWS establishes and tracks key service performance improvement goals. NWS goals established by the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) of 1993. GPRA goals are submitted by NWS to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). GPRA goals represent some of our
tangible, measurable objectives and are directly linked to NWS funding from Congress.

Aviation GPRA performance measure is the percentage of time that IFR conditions (Ceilings > 500 ft & <1000 ft, and Visibility > 1 mile & <3 mile) are correctly forecast. POD and Far are the GPRA metrics. 

Additional information

The new SOD program is built from the requirements of the older Aviation Verify. If you are still using Aviation Verify, compare your output from Aviation Verify to the new SOD. Ensure the output is pretty close. If not, report problems or issues to the verification branch. POC is Brent MacAloney.

## Stats on Demand Sample Outputs

**Notes:**
Now we will look at the types of individual Stats on Demand verification output.

## Contingency Matrix - Output

**Notes:**
This 6x6 contingency table is based off of Jamie Fredericks TAFTrack program.  Its value is considerable when working consecutive days and observing your bias. 

A Contingency Matrix is the main tool used in verifying weather forecasting statistics.  Each entry along the principle diagonal in the Contingency Matrix represents a categorical hit.  A categorical hit occurs when the forecasted element value is in the same category as the observed element value. 

## Threshold Matrix - Output

**Notes:**
Threshold Matrix is a 2x2 Contingency Matrix where the user can select a threshold (or thresholds in the case of Flight Category reports).  The following table is a sample of a Threshold Matrix. The Threshold Matrix displayed is for the prevailing ceiling forecast verification with a threshold of 1000 feet.

You have the option of producing a threshold matrix of either ceiling or visibility.  Again, this can be very useful, if an airport has a certain threshold for operations.  You can determine how well you forecast this threshold.

## Stats on Demand - Output(comparing Forecast to MOS)

- TAF (PREVAILING) VS GFS MOSTAF Better Than GFS MOS (TAF > GFS MOS)  :56.50 (10.3%)
-    TAF Worse Than GFS MOS (TAF < GFS MOS)  :35.33 (6.4%)
-    TAF = GFS MOS = OBS                     :405.92 (73.9%)
-    TAF = GFS MOS <> OBS                    :51.25 (9.3%)

**Notes:**
Stats on Demand will give the capability of determining how your aviation forecast compares to MOS, either the GFS or NGM.

## Stats on Demand

- For *TAF Stats On Demand* Reference Guide, please go to the following website:
-    _[http://140.90.19.59/taf/referenceguide/index.htm](http://140.90.19.59/taf/referenceguide/index.htm)_
**   ****Please test the individual Stats on Demand site thoroughly and report all problems and comments to **_[Brenton](mailto:brent.macaloney@noaa.gov)__[ ](mailto:brent.macaloney@noaa.gov)__[MacAloney](mailto:brent.macaloney@noaa.gov)_**.**

## Summary

- Differences between AvnFPS 2.0 vs 3.0
- New guidance sources
- New monitoring capabilities
- Conditional Climatology
- Individualized Stats on Demand

**Notes:**
Some of the primary differences between AvnFPS 2.0 and 3.0 that we have discussed include:
Differences in the Startup GUI
Main GUI Display changes such as the TAFEditor, TWB Editor, Wx Plot, and Queue buttons
Monitor Enhancements
Persistence button
Lightning
grid(s)
Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS)
New enhancement to mouse hover feature
bottom status window.
Editor Changes
In 3.0, the QC button has been changed to Syn QC (syntac quality control)
Climate QC that will check your TAF against a 30 year climate database
WX Check button which checks your TAF to the latest METAR
ETA Profile Viewer tab is located in the Guidance Viewer Window.
New formatter for MOS Guidance

A new guidance feature in AvnFPS 3.0 is now the Conditional Climatology. We discussed how it can provide you with a historical record of conditions in the next few hours and provide guidance on event durations and intensity trends. It can serve as a reality check to prevent forecasting an event that has little chance of occurrence. 

We discussed some limitations to using conditional climatology which are:
Physical processes are not considered. Need to assess environmental conditions when using this tool in your forecast process. 
2.The period of record can be restricted

And finally we talk about the new Individualized Stats on Demand. AvnFPS 3.0 assigns a forecaster number to each TAF issued.  The 3.0 software then sends this information every 6 hours to the central server so that your individualized stats can be compiled in real time . We looked at several different types output that forecasters can view within Stats on Demand program to help them identify possible bias and help them to improve their forecasts.

## Additional Training and Reference Materials

- Recorded AvnFPS 3.0 Presentation (using Camtasia)
- Cammye Simms web page at:
- 	http:www.nws.noaa.gov/
- Official MDL AvnFPS documentation at: http:www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/icwf/AVNFPS3.0/AvnFPS3.0.html