# Presentation: 558553

## GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE

**GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF THE**
**RICHARD H. HAGEMEYER**
**PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER**
** **
**Charles S. McCreery**
**PTWC Director**
*Tsunami Training *
*Bangkok, Thailand*
*May, 2006*

## PTWC STAFFING EARLY 2006

**PTWC STAFFING EARLY 2006**

## PTWC SCIENTIFIC STAFF

**PTWC SCIENTIFIC STAFF**
**Tsunami Warning Science Officer (Deputy Director)**
**	****Dr Stuart Weinstein, Geophysicist, PTWC TWSO**
**Senior Scientists**
**	****Dr. Robert Cessaro, Geophysicist, PTWC**
** ****	****Barry Hirshorn, Geophysicist, PTWC**
** ****	****Dr. Gerard Fryer, Geophysicist, U. Hawaii**
** ****	****Dr. Vindell Hsu, Geophysicist, AFTAC**
** ****	****Dr Dailin Wang, Oceanographer, IPRC**
**Scientists**
**	****Dr. Victor Sardina, Geophysicist, EQ Engineering**
** ****	****Dr. David Walsh, Oceanographer, NRL and ARC**
** ****	****Brian Shiro, Geophysicist, Washington U.**
** ****	****Stuart Koyanagi, Geophysicist, USGS**
** ****Information Technology Officer**
**	****Dr. Nathan Becker, Oceanographer, U. Hawaii**

## PTWC KEY OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

**SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSES**
**TSUNAMI WAVE MEASUREMENTS**
**DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES**
**MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATION**

## KEY OPERATIONAL GOALS

**FASTER**
**MORE ACCURATE**
**MORE RELIABLE**
**MORE EFFECTIVE**

## OPERATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING WEAKNESSES

**SEISMIC ANALYSES ONLY FOR INITIAL WARNINGS (FAST BUT FALSE ALARMS)**
**LONG WAIT FOR SEA LEVEL DATA**
**TOO FEW AND ONLY POINT MEASUREMENTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE FIELD**
**LONG TIME BETWEEN EVENTS (CONFUSION)**
**NO DETECTION OF LANDSLIDE OR VOLCANIC SOURCES**
**TOO SLOW FOR LOCAL TSUNAMIS (MOST EVENTS)**

## PTWC PACIFIC BULLETIN CRITERIA

| Mw less than 6.5
(Mw: Moment Magnitude) | Earthquake Message Only |
| --- | --- |
| Mw 6.5 to 7.5 | Tsunami Information Bulletin |
| Mw 7.6 to 7.8 | Regional Tsunami Warning
(1000-km Limit) |
| Mw > 7.8 | Expanding Warning / Watch |
| Confirmed Teletsunami | Pacific-Wide Warning |

**PTWC PACIFIC BULLETIN CRITERIA**

## PTWC Criteria for Bulletins in the Indian Ocean Region

**PTWC Criteria for Bulletins in the Indian Ocean Region**

## Frequency of Each Type of Bulletin

| Bulletin Type | Frequency of Bulletin |
| --- | --- |
| Tsunami Information Bulletin
 | 1 or 2 times per year |
| Local Tsunami Watch
 | Once every 25 years |
| Regional Tsunami Watch | Once every 25 years |
| Ocean-Wide Tsunami Watch | Once every 8 years |

**Frequency of Each Type of Bulletin**
**(based on last 100 years of events)**

## DECISION SUPPORT

**EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS**
**HISTORICAL DATA**
**COASTAL GAUGE READINGS**
**DART READINGS**
**REPORTS FROM REGION**
**WHITMORE MODEL**
**SIFT**

## Criteria for Puerto Rico and U.S Virgin Island Bulletins

| Earthquake Location | EQ Magnitude (Mw) | EQ Depth (km) | Near or Under the Sea | Bulletin Type | Threat to 
PR or VI |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Caribbean-Atlantic | >= 6.5 | > 60km | Yes | Information Only | No Threat |
| Caribbean-Atlantic | >= 6.5 | <= 60km | Inland | Information Only | No Threat |
| Just Offshore of PR or VI | 6.0-6.4 | <= 60km | Yes | Information Only | No Threat |
| Just Offshore of PR or VI | >= 6.5 | <= 60km | Yes | Local Warning Recommended | Local Tsunami Threat |
| More Offshore to 2-hrs away | 6.0-7.4 | <= 60km | Yes | Information Only | No Threat  |
| More Offshore  to 2-hrs away | >= 7.5 | <= 60 km | Yes | Warning Recommended | Regional Tsunami Threat |
| Greater than 2-hrs away | 6.0-7.9 | <= 60km | Yes | Information Only | No Threat |
| Greater than 2-hrs away | >= 8.0 | <= 60km | Yes | Watch Recommended | Teletsunami Threat |

## One Significant Tsunamis every 20 Years (last 300 yrs)

| EQ Magnitude | Caribbean Only | Caribbean & Atlantic |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Mw >= 6.0
 | One per year | Two per year |
| Mw >= 6.5
 | One every three years | One per year |
| Mw >= 7.0 | One every five years | One every three years |
| Mw >= 7.5 | One every eight years | One every six years |
| Mw >= 8.0 | One every fifty years | One every fifteen years |

**One Significant Tsunamis every 20 Years (last 300 yrs)**
**Expected Frequency of Earthquakes (last 100 yrs)**

## WHAT WILL PTWC PROVIDE

**INITIAL BULLETINS 10-20 MINUTES AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE FOR MOST EPICENTERS**
**FOLLOW-UP BULLETINS WITH UPDATED EVALUATIONS BASED ON AVAILABLE SEA LEVEL DATA AND FORECAST MODELS **
**DISSEMINATION TO 7X24 FOCAL POINTS BY GTS, EMAIL, FAX, SMS, WEB SITE**
**PHONE CALL TO NEAREST FOCAL POINTS IF A WARNING OR WATCH**

## WHAT WILL PTWC PROVIDE

**ROUTINE COMMUNICATIONS TESTS**
**COMMUNICATIONS PLAN DESCRIBING OPERATIONS PROCEDURES**
**CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONAL CARIBBEAN TWS**

## WHAT MUST MEMBER STATES PROVIDE

**7X24 FOCAL POINTS (KEPT UP TO DATE)**
**PROCEDURES FOR ACTION IN RESPONSE TO BULLETINS**
**FORECAST POINTS**
**RESPONSE TO COMMUNICATION TESTS**
**ASSISTANCE WITH FIELD SITES (SEISMIC, SEA LEVEL, GPS)**
**CONTINUED ENGAGEMENT IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONAL CARIBBEAN TWS**
**LONG TERM COMMITMENT**

## 7X24 FOCAL POINT(S) INFORMATION

*(to be collected and maintained by the ICG Secretariat)*
**NAME OF FOCAL POINT AGENCY/OFFICE**
**OFFLINE CONTACT PERSON FOR THAT OFFICE**
**MAILING ADDRESS**
**7X24 PHONE AND ALTERNATE PHONE(S)**
**PRIMARY CONTACT METHOD (GTS, FAX, EMAIL, SMS, EMWIN)**
**SECONDARY CONTACT METHOD**

## Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin

**TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001**
**PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS**
**ISSUED AT 0117Z 11 APR 2005**
**THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN.**
**... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...**
**THIS MESSAGE IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.**
**AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS**
** ****ORIGIN TIME -  0100Z 11 APR 2005**
** ****COORDINATES -  13.0 NORTH   59.5 WEST **
** ****LOCATION    -  BARBADOS**
** ****MAGNITUDE   -  6.7**

**Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin**

## Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin (cont)

**EVALUATION**
** ****A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON     **
** ****HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.                             **
**                                                                     **
** ****HOWEVER - THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI      **
** ****THAT COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED     **
** ****KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. **
** ****AUTHORITIES IN -   **
**   ****BARBADOS **
** ****SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE**
** ****ACTION.**
**                                                       **
**THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI**
**WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION**
**BECOMES AVAILABLE.**

**Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin (cont)**

## Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement

**TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002**
**PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS**
**ISSUED AT 0354Z 11 APR 2005**
**THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.**
**... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...**
**A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR**
** ****INDONESIA **
**FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION, THIS MESSAGE IS AN**
**ADVISORY ONLY.**
**AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS**
** ****ORIGIN TIME -  0100Z 11 APR 2005**
** ****COORDINATES -   1.3 NORTH   97.5 EAST **
** ****LOCATION    -  NORTHERN SUMATERA  INDONESIA**
** ****MAGNITUDE   -  7.2**

**Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement**

## Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont)

**MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY**
** ****GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME    AMPL    PER**
** ****-------------------  ----- ------  -----  ------  -----**
** ****MALE                  4.2N  73.5E  0448Z   0.19M  14MIN**
** ****COLOMBO               6.9N  79.8E  0345Z   0.15M  22MIN**
** **
** ****TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT**
** ****AMPL - AMPLITUDE IN METERS FROM MIDDLE TO CREST OR MIDDLE**
**        ****TO TROUGH OR HALF OF THE CREST TO TROUGH**
** ****PER  - PERIOD OF TIME FROM ONE WAVE CREST TO THE NEXT**
**EVALUATION**
** ****SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE    **
** ****BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR    **
** ****THOSE AREAS - WHEN DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST    **
** ****TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED.   **
** ****DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL     **
** ****HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS.  AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A       **
** ****WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION   **
** ****MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.                                  **
**                                                                     **
** ****NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE INDIAN      **
** ****OCEAN ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL      **
** ****CHANGES.                   **
**                                         **
** ****DUE TO ONLY LIMITED SEA LEVEL DATA FROM THE REGION IT IS NOT**
** ****POSSIBLE FOR THIS CENTER TO RAPIDLY NOR ACCURATELY EVALUATE THE**
** ****THE STRENGTH OF A TSUNAMI IF ONE HAS BEEN GENERATED.**

**Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont)**

## Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont)

**ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES**
**MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. THE TIME**
**BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE TSUNAMI WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.**
** ****LOCATION                            COORDINATES     ARRIVAL TIME**
** ****--------------------------------    ------------    ------------**
** ****INDONESIA        SIMEULUE            2.5N  96.0E    0134Z 11 APR**
**                  ****SIBERUT             1.5S  98.7E    0144Z 11 APR**
**                  ****PADANG              0.9S 100.1E    0214Z 11 APR**
**                  ****BANDA ACEH          5.5N  95.1E    0223Z 11 APR**
**                  ****BENGKULU            3.9S 102.0E    0238Z 11 APR**
**                  ****BANDAR LAMPUNG      6.0S 105.5E    0338Z 11 APR**
**                  ****CILACAP             7.8S 108.9E    0351Z 11 APR**
**                  ****BALI                9.0S 115.5E    0433Z 11 APR**
**                  ****BELAWAN             3.8N  98.8E    0544Z 11 APR**
**                  ****KUPANG             10.0S 123.4E    0549Z 11 APR**
**THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI**
**WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION**
**BECOMES AVAILABLE.**
**THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION**
**FOR THIS EVENT.**

**Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont)**

## PTWC Preliminary Forecast Points

## FORECAST POINTS

**USED TO DETERMINE IF AN AREA IS IN A WATCH**
**TSUNAMI ETA’S FOR FORECAST POINTS GIVEN IN BULLETINS IF AREA IS IN A WATCH**
**PRELIMINARY ONES TAKEN FROM ATLAS – NEEDS REVIEW BY MEMBER STATES**
**SHOULD BE RECOGNIZABLE PLACES**
**NEED ADEQUATE COVERAGE OF COASTS - ONE EVERY FEW HUNDRED KILOMETERS**
**NOT TOO MANY OR BULLETINS TOO LONG**

## Sample Communication Test

**TEST...TSUNAMI DUMMY – COMMUNICATIONS TEST...TEST**
**PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS**
**ISSUED AT 0315Z 11 APR 2005**
**FROM: PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN EWA BEACH HAWAII**
**TO: TSUNAMI FOCAL POINTS FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTRIES IN **
**    ****THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION**
**      ****AUSTRALIA  ****– NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT**
**      ****BANGLADESH ****– NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT**
**      ****FRANCE     ****– NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT**
**      ****INDIA      ****– NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT**
**      ****INDONESIA  ****– NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT**
**      ****IRAN       ****– NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT**
**      ****KENYA      ****– NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT**
**      ****MADAGASCAR ****– NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT**
**      ****MALAYSIA   ****– NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT**
**      ****MALDIVES   ****– NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT**
**      ****MAURITIUS  ****– NAME OF DESIGNATED FOCAL POINT**
**        ****.**
**        ****.**
**        ****.**
**--- ALL OTHERS PLEASE DISREGARD ---**

**Sample Communication Test**

## Sample Communication Test (cont)

**SUBJECT:  TSUNAMI DUMMY (COMMUNICATION TEST).**
**THIS IS A TEST TO VERIFY COMMUNICATION LINKS AND DETERMINE**
**TRANSMISSION TIMES INVOLVED IN DISSEMINATION OF TSUNAMI **
**ADVISORY INFORMATION TO THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION.**
**RECIPIENTS ARE REQUESTED TO PLEASE RESPOND BACK TO THE**
**PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER. THE RESPONSE SHOULD INCLUDE**
**   ****1 - NAME OF OFFICE THAT RECEIVED THIS TEST**
**   ****2 - METHOD OR METHODS BY WHICH OFFICE RECEIVED THIS TEST**
**   ****3 - INCLUDE EMAIL ADDRESS OR FAX NUMBER OF EACH METHOD**
**   ****3 - TIME OF RECEIPT OF THIS TEST BY EACH METHOD**
**PLEASE RESPOND VIA ONE OF THE FOLLOWING**
**   ****EMAIL   -  PTWC@PTWC.NOAA.GOV**
**   ****TELEFAX -  808-689-4543**
**THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION IN THIS COMMUNICATION TEST.**

**Sample Communication Test (cont)**

## Cumulative Events per Century  Mw Value

***Values projected from Harvard CMT Catalog***

**2500 Events**
**----------------**
**23 Destructive**
**Local Tsunamis**

**Cumulative Events per Century ******** Mw Value**

**Moment Magnitude, Mw**

**Information Bulletin**
**Mw = 6.5-7.5**

**Fixed 1000km**
**Regional Warning**
**Mw = 7.6-7.8**

**Expanding 3+3 hour**
**Regional Warning/Watch**
**Mw > 7.8**

**150 Events**
**----------------**
**20 Destructive**
**Local or Regional Tsunamis**

**100 Events**
**----------------**
**30 Destructive**
**Local or Regional Tsunamis**
**8**
**Tele-**
**Tsunamis**

## THE GENERAL CONCEPT

**PTWC**

**Designated**
**Government**
**Authority**

**Public**

**Threat Evaluation **

**Evacuation Decision**

**Safety Response**

## TWO GENERAL CASES

**Local Tsunami**
** ****Must Respond in Minutes from Earthquake**
** ****No Time for Official Decisions**
** ****Immediate Public Alerting Necessary**
** ****Automatic Public Evacuation Required **
**Regional or Teletsunami**
** ****Must Respond within a Few Hours at Most**
** ****More Time for Official Decisions**
** ****More Time to Alert and Instruct Public**
** ****Organized Evacuation Possible**

## HAWAII EVENT ALARMS 

| TYPE | DATA | TIMING |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Big Island Amplitude | CREST Broadband | 20-30 sec |
| Automatic Loc & Mag | PTWC and HVO SP | 20-30 sec |
| HON SP/LP | PTWC HON SP & LP | 1 min |
| Runup | Runup Detectors | 2-10 min |
| Coastal Sea Level | NOS Gauges | 5-10 min |
| Deep Ocean Sea Level | Hawaii DART | 5-10 min |

**SEISMIC**

**SEA LEVEL**

## RESPONSE TIME TO ALARMS

**OPS**
**CENTER**

**QUARTERS**
**1**

**QUARTERS**
**2**

**QUARTERS**
**5**

**QUARTERS**
**3**

**QUARTERS**
**4**

**NOW****:****	****30 SEC DURING NORMAL WORK HOURS **
**	****2 MIN DURING AFTER HOURS (FM QUARTERS)**
**2006****: 30 SEC AT ALL TIMES (24X7 STAFFING)**

**RESPONSE TIME TO ALARMS**

## ANALYSTS REVIEW & REVISION (1-3 MIN) 

**VERIFY ITS AN ACTUAL LOCAL EARTHQUAKE.**
**SELECT FROM AUTOMATIC HYPOCENTERS.**
**REVISE HYPOCENTER WITH ADDITIONAL DATA.**
**INTERACTIVELY COMPUTE MAGNITUDES.**
**DECIDE BEST HYPOCENTER AND MAGNITUDE.**
**CHECK RUNUP AND SEA LEVEL DATA.**
**COMPARE TO CRITERIA AND ISSUE MESSAGE.**

## HAWAII BULLETIN CRITERIA

| Mag 4 - 6.8
 | Earthquake Message Only |
| --- | --- |
| Mag 4 - 6.8 with runup or coastal gauge signal | Warning to nearest counties |
| Mw 6.9 – 7.5 | Warning to nearest counties |
| Mw > 7.5 | Statewide Warning |
| Confirmed Major Local Tsunami | Statewide Warning |

**HAWAII BULLETIN CRITERIA**

## ISSUE MESSAGE & ALERT PUBLIC 

**Public**

**Voice **

**Text **

**PTWC**

## The Public must be educated to respond immediately based upon having felt shaking from the earthquake and upon hearing sirens, EAS, or NWR alerts.  There is no time to verify the warning or wait for instructions. 

## PACIFIC EVENT ALARMS 

| TYPE | DATA | TIMING |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Big Island Amplitude | GSN / IMS Broadband | 2-7 min |
| Automatic Loc & Mag | PTWC and HVO SP | 5-15 min |
| HON LP | PTWC HON LP | 7-20 min |
| Coastal Sea Level | NOS Gauges | 15 min – 1 hour* |
| Deep Ocean Sea Level | Hawaii DART | 15 min – 2 hours* |

**SEISMIC**

**SEA LEVEL**

** for areas with coverage*

## RESPONSE TIME TO ALARMS

**OPS**
**CENTER**

**QUARTERS**
**1**

**QUARTERS**
**2**

**QUARTERS**
**5**

**QUARTERS**
**3**

**QUARTERS**
**4**

**NOW****:****	****30 SEC DURING NORMAL WORK HOURS **
**	****2 MIN DURING AFTER HOURS (FM QUARTERS)**
**2006****: 30 SEC AT ALL TIMES (24X7 STAFFING)**

**RESPONSE TIME TO ALARMS**

## ANALYSTS REVIEW & REVISION (1-3 MIN) 

**VERIFY ITS A LARGE PACIFIC EARTHQUAKE.**
**SELECT FROM AUTOMATIC HYPOCENTERS.**
**REVISE HYPOCENTER WITH ADDITIONAL DATA.**
**INTERACTIVELY COMPUTE MAGNITUDES.**
**DECIDE BEST HYPOCENTER AND MAGNITUDE.**
**COMPARE TO CRITERIA AND ISSUE MESSAGE.**

## PACIFIC INITIAL BULLETIN CRITERIA

| Mw less than 6.5
(Mw: Moment Magnitude) | Earthquake Message Only |
| --- | --- |
| Mw 6.5 to 7.5 | Tsunami Information Bulletin |
| Mw 7.6 to 7.8 | Regional Tsunami Warning |
| Mw > 7.8 | Expanding Warning / Watch |
| Confirmed Teletsunami | Pacific-Wide Warning |

**PACIFIC INITIAL BULLETIN CRITERIA**

## SUBSEQUENT BULLETINS

**SUBSEQUENT BULLETINS**

**DECISION SUPPORT**
** ****Additional Seismic Parameters**
** ****Coastal Sea Level Readings**
** ****DART Readings**
** ****Reliable Reports**
** ****Historical Data**
** ****Forecast Models**

**DECISIONS**
** ****Upgrade to Warning**
** ****Continue Warning**
** ****Expand Warning**
** ****Cancel Warning**

## ISSUE MESSAGE & ALERT PUBLIC 

**Public**

**Text **

**Hawaii Civil**
**Defense**

**US Interests**
**in the **
**Pacific**

**Designated**
**Agencies of**
**Countries **

**PTWC**

## Designated Agencies must be prepared with an Operations Plan to respond quickly and alert the public when necessary based upon the information received from PTWC and any supplemental data or information they may receive.  This could include advice from local experts. 

## 100% OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY

**POWER****:  All operational systems on a central UPS backed up by a generator with one week of fuel.**
**CENTER HARDWARE****:  Hardware duplicated into primary and redundant systems. **
**DATA SOURCES****:  Seismic and sea level data come from multiple sources. **
**DATA COMMUNICATIONS****:  Data is sent to PTWC over multiple links whenever possible.**

## 100% OPERATIONAL RELIABILITY

**DATA PROCESSING****:  Multiple algorithms for EQ detection, alerting, locations, magnitudes, and model guidance.**
**MESSAGING****:  Multiple dissemination methods to reach designated contact points by multiple means.**
**DUTY PERSONS****:  Two persons always on duty on the Center compound.**
**BACKUP CENTER****:  PTWC and WC/ATWC provide backup service for each other.**

## LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY

**NATIONAL SUPPORT****:  National commitment to Center operations.  As a part of the US National Weather Service, certain resources and expertise are shared with this organization that also does 24x7 monitoring of the environment and issues advisories, watches, and warnings.**
**ORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORT****:  Organizations of stakeholders such as ITSU (international), NTHMP (national), and TTRC (local) that include emergency managers, warning center operators, and scientists provide authoritative sustained focus on tsunami issues.**

## LONG TERM SUSTAINABILITY

**MULTI-FUNCTION SEISMIC****:  Seismic stations operated by multiple organizations for multiple purposes including earthquake monitoring, volcano monitoring, and geophysical research.**
**MULTI-FUNCTION SEA LEVEL****:  Sea level stations operated by multiple organizations for multiple purposes including tides, storm surge, El Ni****ño, and long-term sea level rise****.**
**MULTI-FUNCTION COMMUNICATIONS****:  Data communications methods shared when possible.  Message disseminations over multi-purpose circuits such as GTS, AFTN, EMWIN.**

## LONG TERM READINESS

**FREQUENT ALARMS****:  Duty staff respond to one or two earthquakes per day on average**
**FREQUENT BULLETINS****:  Bulletin criteria set so system is exercised regularly.  **
**Pacific:****	****Mw >= 6.5****	****~2 events/month**
**Hawaii:****	****	****ml > 4.0****	****~1 event/month**
**COMMUNICATION TESTS****:  Monthly communication tests with response required ensure communication links working and reinforce readiness.**
**EXERCISES****:  Tabletop and more realistic exercises expose weaknesses and provide practice.**

## 17 November 2003: SIFT Match of Waveforms of Generation-Propagation Model and Tsunameter

**17 November 2003: SIFT Match of Waveforms of Generation-Propagation Model and Tsunameter**

## Real Time Detection of November  17, 2003  Tsunami

## Slide 49

## Challenge:  

**Source Detection and Characterization**
**Fill gaps in seismic coverage**
**Faster Parameters – Source Mechanism and Slip Distribution**
**More accurately define the tsunami from the source parameters**
**Non-seismic sources – landslides, submarine slumps, volcanoes, meteors**

## Challenge:  

**Wave Detection and Characterization**
**Fill gaps in Coastal coverage**
**Fill gaps in Deep Ocean coverage**
**Design Affordable and Sustainable Gauges**
**Find Alternate Methods for Wave Detection and Measurement**

## Challenge:  

**Accurate Forecasting**
**Models / methodologies need verification**
**Forecasts need confidence limits**
**Forecast must be produced quickly**
**Ingest and incorporate new measurements as they arrive**

## Challenge:  

**Warning Dissemination**
**Need to be able to quickly alert an unsuspecting public at any time of day or night to an impending tsunami**
**Need to provide instructions on what to do**
**Need to disseminate properly crafted message so public will react correctly to save their lives**

## THANK YOU