# Presentation: 728749

## Outlook for International Travel to the U.S.

**Presented by:**
**HELEN MARANO, Director**
**Office of Travel and Tourism Industries**
**International Trade Administration**
**U.S. Department of Commerce**
**October 2006**

*2006 Marketing Outlook Forum*

## World Tourism Arrivals & Receipts(2002-2005)

**Source: U.N. World Tourism Organization**
**r = revised**

- Number of Travelers
- (millions)

- Traveler Receipts
- ($billions)

## Top Five Country Rankings of Global Visitors and Receipts (2005)

- 	1	France	76	9.4%	**United States ****	****$82****	****12.0%**
- 	2	Spain	56	6.9%	Spain	$48	7.0%
- 	**3****	****United States****	****49****	****6.1%**	France	$42	6.2%
- 	4	China	47	5.8%	Italy	$35	5.1%
- 	5	Italy	37	4.6%	Germany	$29	4.3%
**	****	****All Countries:****	****808****	****	****All Countries:****	****$682****	****	**

**	****	****Destination****	****2005****	****World ****	****Destination ****	****2005****	****World**
**	****Rank****	****Country****	****Visitors****	****Share****	****Country****	****Receipts*****	****Share**
- 			(mil)	(%)		($bil)	(%)

- Source:	U.N. World Tourism Organization
-              *	Receipt estimates exclude air passenger fares ($21 billion for U.S. alone)

*The United States continues to lead the world in global travel and tourism*
* **exports (receipts) and ranks 3rd in global visitation.*

## USA’s Market Share Of World Arrivals & Receipts (1992-2005)

- Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries; UN World Tourism Organization

- Market share

***Record Market Share***

*The United States competitive position has weakened over the past decade; however, our share of both global receipts and global arrivals increased in 2005.*

## U.S. Arrivals & Receipts1995-2005

**U.S. Arrivals & Receipts**1995-2005

**Visitors**

**Receipts**

- Visitor spending (receipts) closely mirrors visitor volume.  Receipts were $102.6
- billion in 2005, while visitor volume was 51.2 million.  Both measures nearly broke 2000 records.

- millions of visitors

- $billions in spending

- Sources:	Department of Commerce, Office of Tourism Industries; Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Statistics Canada; Banco de Mexico.

## Top Ten Travel Export Markets(2005 & record receipts/year)

- Japan	$16,520	$17,803	1995
- United Kingdom	$13,464	$13,464	2005
- Canada	$11,586	$11,586	2005
- Mexico	$8,500	$8,500	2005
- Germany	$4,886	$6,117	1996
- France	$3,098	$3,654	2000
- Australia	$2,803	$2,554	2005
- Korea	$2,608	$2,653	1996
- Brazil	$2,201	$3,862	1997
- Italy	$2,201	$2,558	1998
**U.S. TOTAL****	****$102,611****	****$103,087****	****2000**

**	****	****Total Travel****	****Record****	****Year**
**	****	****Receipts****	****Travel****	**** Record**
**	****Origin Country****	****2005****	****Receipts****	**** Set**
- 		($mil)	($mil)**	**

## International Travelers to the U.S.2006 YTD through July

**Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries; Statistics Canada**

**	****	****Through July****	****06 / 05  **
**	****Origin of Visitors****	**** 2006     ****	****% Change**
- Canada	9,277,000	6%
- Mexico (to US interior only)	3,204,000	25%
**Overseas (NET)****	****12,164,000****	****-1%**
- 	United Kingdom	 2,328,000	-5%
- 	Japan	2,087,000	-4%
- 	Germany	771,000	-4%
- 	South Korea	440,000	5%
- 	France	436,000	-16%
- 	Australia	336,000	5%
- 	Brazil	312,000	9%
- 	Italy	268,000	-8%
- 	China	260,000	12%
**INTERNATIONAL TOTAL****	****24,645,000****	****4%**

## Outlook for International Travel to the United States

## International Visitors to the U.S. And Projections (2000-2010f)

- Sources:	U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries; Secretaria de Turismo (Mexico); Statistics Canada
- f  = forecast; one or more nights (Issued May 2005)

- International Visitors to the U.S. And Projections **(2000-2010f)**

## Forecast: International Outlook

**	****Origin Country****	****2005****	****2010p****	****Change **		(000s)	(000s)**	**(%)

**Total Visitation****	****49,209****	****63,446****	****29%**
- Canada**	**14,865	19,052	28%
- Mexico	12,665	16,672	32%
- Overseas**	**21,679	27,722	28%

***Total International Visitation to the United States***

## Forecast:  Overseas Regions

**	****Origin Country****	****2005****	****2010p****	****Change **		(000s)	(000s)**	**(%)

**Overseas (Total)****	****21,679****	****27,722****	****28%**
**   ****Europe****	**10,313**	**12,721	23%
**   ****Asia****	**6,198	8,242	33%
**   ****South America****	**1,820	2,509	38%
**   ****Caribbean****	**1,135	1,232	9%
**   ****Oceania****	**737	926	26%
**   ****Central America****	**696	749	8%
**   ****Middle East****	**527	559	6%
**   ****Africa****	**252**	**290**	**15%

- p = Projected Visitation

## Summary of International Outlook

- 2006 international visitor volume will reach the previous 2000 record level.  Spending is on pace to break the 2000 record.
- Canada and Mexico are providing the growth in 2006.  Asian and South American markets are also strong.  Western Europe is flat.
- Outlook is positive and consistent across most regions and markets due to GDP growth and favorable currency exchange rates.

## Policy Challenges

- Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI)
- Visa Issues
- Entry/Exit Procedures
- World Competition
- World Perception

## Forecast:  Canada

**	****Origin Country****	****2005****	****2010p****	****Change **		(000s)	(000s)**	**(%)

**Canada****	**14,865	19,052	28%

- p = Projected Visitation

**Arrivals in Millions**

## Forecast:  Europe

**	****Origin Country****	****2005****	****2010p****	****Change **		(000s)	(000s)**	**(%)

**Europe (Total)****	****10,313****	****12,721****	****23%**
**   ****United Kingdom****	**4,345	5,414	25%
**   ****Germany**	1,416	1,775	25%
**   ****France**	879	970	10%
**   ****Italy**	546	685	25%
**   ****Netherlands**	449	573	28%
**   ****Spain**	386	510	32%
**   ****Ireland**	383	503	31%
**   ****Sweden****	**291**	**365	25%
**   ****Switzerland****	**257**	**342	33%

- p = Projected Visitation

## Forecast:  Asia-Pacific

**Total (Asia)**	           **6,198****	****                      8,242                   33%**
**Total (Oceania)**	 737	                 926	              26%
**   ****Japan****	**3,884	4,996	29%
**   ****South Korea**	705	973	38%
**   ****Australia**	582	751	29%
**   ****India**	345	522	51%
**   ****China (PRC)**	270	515	91%
**   ****Taiwan**	319	417	31%

**	****Origin Country****	****2005****	****2010p****	****Change **		(000s)	(000s)**	**(%)

- p = Projected Visitation

## Forecast: South America

**Total (South America)**	     **1,820****	****           2,509****	****  38%**
**   ****Brazil****	**485	695	43%
**   ****Venezuela**	340	473	39%
**   ****Colombia**	325	446	37%
**   ****Argentina**	189	260	38%
**   ****Peru**	152	173	14%
**   ****Ecuador****	**143**	**189	32%
**   ****Chile**	102	148	45%

**	****Origin Country****	****2005****	****2010p****	****Change **		(000s)	(000s)**	**(%)

- p = Projected Visitation