# Presentation: 498954

## 
Science and Technology Infusion Plan
for
Air Quality Forecasting
Paula Davidson

**Science and Technology Infusion Plan**
**for**
**Air Quality Forecasting**
*Paula Davidson*

- NWS S&T Committee
- September 17, 2002

## Outline

**Team Composition**
**Vision/Benefits**
**Goals/Targets**
**Key Gaps **
**Key Decisions**
**Outstanding R & D Needs**
**Summary**

## Air Quality ForecastingTiger Team Composition

**Pai-Yei Whung (Team Lead)  (OAR)**
**Paula Davidson********* (NWS/OST)**
**Paul Stokols********* (NWS/OCWWS)**
**Ralph Petersen********* (NWS/NCEP)**
**James Meagher********* (OAR)**** **
**Richard Artz***** ****(OAR)**
**William Stockwell***** ****(OAR)**
**James O’Sullivan  (OAR)**
**Roger Pierce (OAR)**
**James Lee (NWS/OCWWS)**
**Paul Hirschberg (NWS/OST)**
**Ken Schere (OAR/EPA)**
**(NESDIS)**

## Air Quality ForecastingVision / Benefits

**                          **_**Vision**_** **
**Provide the Nation with accurate and timely air quality forecasts to protect lives, property**

**REDUCE loss of life, health and property from poor air quality**
**	****>60,000 deaths/yr from high levels of particulate matter**
**	****~ $150 B/ yr health cost of air pollution**
**	****~ $2.4 B/ yr agricultural crop losses from high levels of ozone**

**                    **_**Current**_
**NWS forecasting does not include AQ**
**High societal costs of poor AQ**
**Capabilities ready for transition**

## Air Quality ForecastingGoals/Targets to FY 12

| Performance Measure: Existing GPRA  | Current Skill | FY07 Goal | FY12 Target  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  |  |  |

| Proposed Products | IOC | FY07 Target | FY12 Target |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Ozone forecasts | 1-day forecasts:  New England | 1-day categorical forecasts for the Nation | Extend to day 2 and beyond |
| Extend to other elements:  PM |  | RTT&E, day-1, NE | Nationwide capability, 2-day |

## Air Quality ForecastingKey Gaps: Questions for IOC Planning

- Roles of Partners:  public and private?
- Best use of observations?
- Optimum configuration for accuracy/efficiency of AQ models?
- Alternative concepts of operation?
- Estimates for schedule/resources?

## NOAA AQFP Timeline*

**04**

**03**

**05**

**06**

- 1-day O3

**IOC NE**

**07**

**NOAA AQFP Timeline***
-                    		*integrated with WRF schedule

- 1-day O3:NE

- 1-day O3: NE

- Research/Prototype

- Real-Time Test/Evaluation (RTT&E)

- Operational

**Current and Projected Funding ($M)**

- 3.0

*3.0*

*3.0*

*3.0*

- V/V
- meth

*3.0*

*3.0*

- 1-day PM

- 1-day O3: Nation

- Pre-Operational Development

- 1-day PM

- 1-day PM

- extend to
- EUS

- OAR

- NWS

*3.0*

*3.0*

*3.0*

*3.0*

*3.0*

**Notes:**
O3 forecasts will be for O3 season only, PM forecasts will be year round   
WRF implementation schedule critical

2002
Prototype 24-hr time-resolved O3 forecast in NE
Develop 48-hr time-resolved ozone forecasting for NE
Develop validation and verification matrix for AQ forecasts
Begin pathway to operation planning
2003
Begin test and evaluation of WRF-CHEM
Begin evaluation of emission inventory data and ingestion to WRF-CHEM
Prototype 24-hr time-resolved O3 forecast in NE using WRF-CHEM
Integrate and test PM module for 24-hr forecasts into WRF-CHEM
2004
Prototype 48-hr time-resolved O3 forecast in NE
Prototype 24-hr time-resolved PM forecasts in NE
2005
Transition 48-hr time-resolved O3 forecast in NE to operation and begin operational forecasts
Transition 24-hr time-resolved PM forecast in NE to operation and begin operational forecasts
Prototype 48-hr time-resolved O3 forecast in Eastern US
Prototype 24-hr time-resolved PM forecast in Eastern US
2006
Transition 48-hr time-resolved O3 forecast in Eastern US to operation and begin operational forecasts
Transition 24-hr time-resolved PM forecast in Eastern US to operation and begin operational forecasts
Prototype 48-hr time-resolved O3 forecast Nationwide
Prototype 24-hr time-resolved PM forecast Nationwide
2007
Transition 48-hr time-resolved O3 forecast Nationwide to operation and begin operational forecasts
Transition 24-hr time-resolved PM forecast Nationwide to operation and begin operational forecasts
Prototype 72-hr time-resolved O3 forecast Nationwide
Prototype 48-hr time-resolved PM forecast Nationwide
Begin integrating PM-visibility module into PM forecast model*
* Required step for Objective level service

## NOAA AQFP Critical Decision Points:  IOC in FY 04

**Verification and Validation**
***Select O******3****** module for FY04 RTT&E***
***Select modules for FY03 development/testing***
***Define Forecaster Role***
***Complete plan for evaluating alternatives in FY03***
**Select IT architecture design**
**Define forecast products**
**Evaluate air chemistry obs needs**
**Approve O****3**** module for operational use**

## NOAA AQFP: Proposed Concepts of Operations

- NWP

-  PARTNERS and END USERS
- Fed./State	Private/Public

- NDFD

- NCDC

- Forecasts

- Archive

- Obs.

- Forecaster Role ???
- “Hands Off”
- Central Desk
- WFOs
- B+C

**Notes:**
Legend:
AQFC		Air Quality Forecast Center
NCDC		National Climatic Data Center 
NDFD		National Digital Forecast Database
NWP	  	Numerical Weather Prediction Models
WFO		Weather Forecast Office

## NOAA AQF Next Steps

**For September 2002**
**Refine/Validate Timeline **
**Key Decision Points  **
***Responsibility, Criteria approval***
***Obtain computing resources estimates***
***Refine deliverables, resource estimates***
**Finalize EPA-NOAA MOU**
**Next 6 months**
**Planning for FY 03 – FY 07+**
***Define customer requirements***
***Define deliverables, resource estimates***
**Monthly Meetings**

## Air Quality ForecastingOutstanding R&D Needs

**What is the best use of atmospheric chemistry observations for forecasting?**
**Which species must be included to accurately predict ozone, PM, and expanded product suite?    **
**What is the best approach for V&V? **
**What is the best use of ensembles in AQ prediction?**
**What are the most effective methods for statistical post-processing?**