# Presentation: 649881

## UNDERSTANDING

- THE PUBLIC

- Americans – Who Are We
- And What Do We Stand For?

- Ken Cordell, FS, Athens, GA
- www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends

- NF Leadership in South Carolina
- September 25, 2000

## 1960:

- Flower Children,
- Elvis and The Beattles,
- VW Camper Vans,
- Vietnam, Kennedy,
- Family Vacations,
- Chevy Impala V8

##  	“The simple activities are the most popular” – 	driving, walking, swimming, picnicking

** ****	****“****The simple activities are the most popular” – ****	****driving, walking, swimming, picnicking**
** ****	****“****Water is a focal point of outdoor recreation,” ****	****to sit by, swim in, ski across, and run boats over.**
** ****	****“****Outdoor recreation is a major leisure time ****	****activity and it is growing in importance,” 90% ****	****participated in the summer of 1960.**

**The Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission found:**

## Slide 4

## The Forest Service RPA Assessment found:

-  	Outdoor recreation continues to be immensely 	popular, 97 percent age 16+ participate in 2000.
-  	The four most popular single activities are 	walking, going to the beach, family gatherings 	out-of-doors, and sightseeing.
-  	Almost all outdoor activities are forecast to 	grow in number of people participating and in 	travel.

## Slide 6

## Demographic Percentages: 1960 and 2000

- _1960_			_2000_

**Age****	****	****	****	**_**Male**_**	**_**Female**_**	****	**_**Male**_**	**** **_**Female**_
**  ****All****	****	****	****	****47.9****	**** 52.1****	****	****48.4****	****  51.6**
**    ****12-17****	****	****	****   7.3****	****    7.0****	****	****   5.3****	****     5.0**
**    ****18-24****	****	****	****   5.3****	****    6.2****	****	****   5.9****	****     5.7**
**    ****25-44****	****	****	****  16.6****	****   18.1****	****	****  17.9****	****    18.2**
**    ****45-64****	****	****	****  13.4****	****   14.3****	****	****  13.0****	****    13.8**
**    ****65+****	****	****	****	****   5.3****	****    6.5****	****	****   6.3****	****     8.9**

**Residence in MSA****	****	****	****60.5****	****	****	****80.2**
**   ****Over 1 million****	****	****	****  26.1****	****	****	****  21.4**
**   ****Under 1 million****	****	****	****  34.5****	****	****	****  58.8**
_**Not**_** in MSA****	****	****	****	****39.5****	****	****	****19.8**

**Race****	****	****White****	****	****	****89.5****	****	****	****82.9**
**	****	****Non-White****	****	****10.5****	****	****	****17.1**

## (Continued) 

- (Continued)
- Demographic Percentages: 1960 and 2000

- _1960_			_2000_

**Family Income (1998$)  ****(Note: 45.54 million U.S. families in 1960.  71.55 million families in 1998.)**
**Percentiles**
**   ****20****th****	****	****	****	****     14,093****	****	****     21,600**
**   ****40****th**** ****	****	****	****     24,298****	****	****     37,692**
**   ****60****th****	****	****	****	****     32,215****	****	****     56,020**
**   ****80****th****	****	****	****	****     44,547****	****	****     83,693**
**   ****95****th****	****  ****	****	****	****     68,521****	****	****    145,199**

**Educational Attainment, Age 25 and Over**
**  ****8****th**** grade or less****	****	****	****37.5****	****	****	**** 7.4**
**  ****9-11****th**** grade****	****	****	****	****18.5****	****	****	**** 9.7**
**  ****High school graduate****	****	****27.1****	****	****	****33.8**
**  ****Some college****	****	****	****	**** 9.1****	****	****	****24.7**
**  ****College degree or higher****	****	**** 7.7****	****	****	****24.4**

## Demographic Change

|  | South Carolina | South | United States |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Total Population  (millions) |  |  |  |
| 1980 | 3.1 | 52.9 | 227.2 |
| 2000 | 3.9 | 67.4 | 274.6 |
| 2020 | 5.0 | 82.6 | 322.6 |
| Percent Change |  |  |  |
| 1980-2020 | 61.3% | 56.1% | 42.0% |

## Demographic Change

| 

Race | % in 1980 |  | % in 2000 |  | % in 2020 |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | SC | US | SC | US | SC | US |
| Whites | 69.1 | 85.9 | 68.6 | 82.1 | 68.1 | 78.9 |
| Blacks | 30.4 | 11.8 | 30.4 | 12.9 | 30.9 | 14.0 |
| Others | 0.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 7.1 |

## Demographic Change

| Median Age in | South Carolina | South | United States |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1980 | 28.1 | 30.1 | 30.0 |
| 2000 | 35.2 | 36.4 | 35.7 |
| 2020 | 38.0 | 39.2 | 37.7 |

## Demographic Change

| Income Per Capita in | South Carolina | South | United States |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | (thousands) |  |  |
| 1980 | 12.9 | 14.5 | 17.0 |
| 2000 | 18.5 | 20.5 | 22.5 |
| 2020 | 23.5 | 26.2 | 28.2 |

## Projected Population Age 65 & Over, 2000 & 2020

**Projected Population Age 65 & Over, 2000 & 2020**

## Slide 14

## Future distribution of Projected Change in Population Age 65 & Over, 2000-2020

**Future distribution of Projected Change in Population Age 65 & Over, 2000-2020**

## Filling the West:

**Filling the West:**
**Distribution of U.S. Birth Rate, 1990**

## Emptying the Midwest:

**Emptying the Midwest:**
**Distribution of U.S. Death Rates, 1990**

## Projected Retirement Destination Counties within Top 20% of Counties Increasing in Population over Age 65

## The Geography of Projected Change in U.S. Population, 2000-2020

**The Geography of Projected Change in U.S. Population, 2000-2020**

## Slide 20

## The Changing American Society

-  **About 1 million new immigrants per year**
** **_**More people**_**:****	****1990****	****	****248 mm**
**	****	****	****2000****	****	****275 mm**
**	****	****	****2020****	****	****325 mm**
**	****	****	****2050****	****	****404 mm**
**	****	****	****2075****	****	****481 mm**
**	****	****	****2100****	****	****571 mm**
** **_**Getting older**_**:  Median age 35********38 (by 2020)**
** **_**Changing ethnicities**_** by 2050:**
**	****	****Anglo Americans ****	****	****76%********50%**
**	****	****African Americans****	**** ****	****12% ********15%**
**	****	****Hispanic Americans****	****  9% ********21%**
**	****	****Asian Americans****	****	****  4% ********11%**

## Slide 22

## Lifestyles in 2000

**Lifestyles in 2000**

_**Percentage Participating Regularly**_

## Lifestyles

**Lifestyles**
**In SC in**
**2000**
**(continued)**

_**Percentage Participating Regularly**_

## Slide 25

## Slide 26

## Nature Lovers

**Well-off, highly-educated, older, mostly white females in small households with no kids and who like to:**

**Picnic**
**Visit Nature Centers**
**Walk**
**Sightsee**
**And**
**Watch Wildlife and Birds**

## Outdoor Avids

**Middle-aged, white, more male than female, college educated, high-incomed 2-person householders with no kids, and who like to:**

**Participate in family activities**
**Attend sports**
**Visit historic or nature sites**
**Camp, hunt, and fish**
**Motorboat and go to the beach**
**Watch wildlife and birds**

**They don’t **_**play sports**_** or snow activities.**

## Slide 29

## Slide 30

## Activities Rising Fastest

- By Percentage (1982 to 2000)

**	**_**% Growth**_**	**_**No. in 2000**_
**Bird watching****	****	****235.9****	****	**** 71.2**
**Hiking****	****	****195.9****	****	**** 73.1**
**Backpacking****	****	****165.9****	****	**** 23.4**
**Snow-mobiling****	****	****107.5****	****	**** 66.9**
**Walking****	****	**** 91.2****	****	****179.0**
**Off-road driving****	****	**** 89.2****	****	**** 27.9**
**Primitive camping****	****	**** 81.9****	****	**** 32.2**
**Developed camping****	****	**** 76.0****	****	**** 52.8**
**Downhill skiing****	****	**** 66.9****	****	**** 17.7**
**Swimming/river,**
**   ****lake or ocean****	****	**** 64.4****	****	**** 78.1**

## Activities Rising Slower 

**	**_**% Growth**_**	**_**No. in 2000**_
**Motor boating****	****	****52.9****	****	****51.4**
**Cross-country skiing****	****	****50.9****	****	****8.0**
**Bicycling****	****	****48.5****	****	****83.9**
**Sightseeing****	****	****40.2****	****	****114.0**
**Picnicking****	****	****37.5****	****	****116.6**
**Horseback riding****	****	****35.9****	****	****21.6**
**Fishing****	****	****20.6****	****	****72.5**
**Hunting****	****	****12.7****	****	****23.9**
**Outdoor team sports****	****	****10.6****	****	****46.9**
**Water skiing****	****	****  9.4****	****	****17.4**
**Sailing****	****	****-0.9****	****	****10.5**

- Activities Rising Slower
- By Percentage (1982 to 2000)

## Activity Participation in South Carolina

_**Activity Participation in South Carolina**_
**(Percentage Participating)**

## Activity Participation in South Carolina

_**Activity Participation in South Carolina**_
**(Percentage Participating)**

## Activity Participation in South Carolina

_**Activity Participation in South Carolina**_
**(Percentage Participating)**

## Trends in Number of Activities

**Yearly Household Income**

**Average number of activities**

## Trends in Number of Activities by Race

**Average number of activities**

**Race**

## Regional Participation Differences in 2000 (Percentages)

**Percent of Population 16+**

## Regions Where Participants Reside (Number of Participants)

| Type of Activity | Millions of Participants |  |  |  | National |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | South | North | Rocky Mtn./
Great Plains | Pacific Coast |  |
| Trail/street/road | 59.6 | 82.6 | 15.7 | 30.4 | 188.4 |
| Viewing/learning | 44.5 | 66.2 | 12.4 | 23.1 | 146.1 |
| Camping | 18.5 | 27.4 | 7.5 | 12.4 | 66.5 |
| Hunting | 8.8 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 23.7 |
| Outdoor adventure | 35.2 | 50.5 | 11.1 | 19.8 | 117.0 |
| Boating/floating | 23.6 | 35.3 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 76.5 |
| Fishing | 26.8 | 29.2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 72.4 |
| Swimming | 40.1 | 57.6 | 9.2 | 21.2 | 127.4 |
| Skiing/sledding/ snowmobiling | 8.9 | 31.9 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 54.4 |
| Outdoor team sport | 14.6 | 21.3 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 46.9 |
| Social activities | 53.3 | 74.6 | 14.4 | 27.6 | 169.9 |

- Regions Where Participants Reside (Number of Participants)

## Slide 40

## Humans Were Meant to Rule Over Nature

**Humans Were Meant to Rule Over Nature**

- 14%
- Strongly Agree

- 15%
- Somewhat Agree

- 6%
- Neutral

- 19%
- Somewhat Disagree

- 42%
- Strongly Disagree

**35%**

**61%**

## Spending on the Environment

**Too Much****	****	****7%**

**Too Little****	****	****	****49%**

**About Right****	****	****     28%**

**(Don’t Know)****	****	****	****(15%)**

## Percentage 

**Percentage **
**of Americans**
**Reporting **
**Regulation of **
**Natural **
**Resources is **
**“****Just the **
**Right Amount” **
**or has **
**“****Not Gone **
**Far Enough.”**

## Slide 44

## Objectives for Managing Public Lands

- (Percent in Nation saying important to very important)

## Objectives for Managing National Forests in South Carolina

- (Percent in SC saying important to very important)

**Expanding access for motorized vehicles (18.6%)**

**Developing paved roads for cars (55.5%)**

**Conserving/protecting sources of water (93.4%)**

**Preserving resources through policies (69.3%)**

**Informing public on potential environmental impacts (82.4%)**

## Ranking of Reasons Why We Should Protect

**Ranking of Reasons Why We Should Protect**
**Some Federal Lands**

**REASONS****	****	****	**** ****Very Important****	****      Of Little Importance**
**Preserve most significant places**
**   ****for future generations****	****	****	****88****	****	****	****1**
**Protect wildlife habitat****	****	****	****78****	****	****	****5**
**Preserve natural ecosystems****	****	****73****	****	****	****6**
**Protect air and water quality****	****	****73****	****	****	****7**
**Opportunities to experience peacefulness**
**   ****and sounds of nature****	****	****	****72****	****	****	****5**
**Preserve cultures and history****	****	****70****	****	****	****7**
**Opportunities to learn about nature,**
**   ****cultures, and history****	****	****	****69****	****	****	****7**
**Preserve historic places****	****	****	****66****	****	****	****8**
**Demonstrate environmentally sound**
**   ****management****	****	****	****	****53****	****	****	****12**
**Opportunities for recreation****	****	****49****	****	****	****12**
**Opportunities for scientific study****	****	****46****	****	****	****18**
**Income for tourist industry****	****	****	****14****	****	****	****56**

- Source: Haas, 1998.

## Source: Haas, 1998.

## AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON PROTECTION OF PUBLIC LANDS:DO WE NEED/WANT WILDERNESS?

- AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON PROTECTION OF PUBLIC LANDS:DO WE NEED/WANT WILDERNESS?

## Public Views on Wilderness

- 	Nationally about 1/2 of American’s 16+ 	report knowing about the NWPS
-  	Only 4.4% feel we have put too many acres 	into the NWPS:
- 		-  Not enough, 52.6%
- 		-  About right, 26.9%
- 		-  Too much, 4.4%
- 		-  Not sure, 15.4%

## TOP 5 VALUES

**TOP 5 VALUES**

** ****Protecting air quality**
** ****Protecting water quality**
** ****Protecting wildlife habitat**
** ****Protecting T&E species**
** ****Legacy for future generations**
**      ****(By Majority Vote)**

## Lowest 4 Values

**Lowest 4 Values**

** ****Providing recreation opportunities**
** ****Providing spiritual inspiration**
** ****Using areas for scientific study**
** ****Stimulate income for tourism ****	****industry**
**       ****(All Ballots Counted)**

## Slide 53

## Conserving/protecting sources

**Conserving/protecting sources**
** ****of water ****	****	****	****	****  90****	****      89****	****  93**

**Protecting ecosystems/habitats****	****  81****	****      83****	****  89**

**Developing trail systems for **
** ****non-motorized recreation****	****	****  51****	****      47****	****  61**

**Designating more Wilderness areas****	****  47****	****      56****	****  62**

**Increasing acres in public land****	****  44****	****      50****	****  58**

**Expanding commercial recreation****	****  29****	****      31****	****  27**

**Expanding access for motorized**
** ****vehicles ****	****	****	****	****  20****	****      20****	****  20**

**Developing paved roads for cars****	****  19****	****      24****	****  18**

## COMPARING IMPORTANCE OF PUBLIC LAND OBJECTIVES BETWEEN ETHNIC GROUPS

**Conserving/**
**Protecting sources of water**

**Designating more wilderness areas**

**Trail systems for non-motorized recreation**

**Expanding access for motorized vehicles**

## Some Regional Differences

- (% saying important/very important)

** ****Expanding access for motorized vehicles**
**	****Rocky Mtn. = 31%****	****	****South = 19%**
** ****Trail systems for non-motorized recreation**
**	****Pacific Coast = 41%  Rocky Mtn. = 51%**
** ****Designate more wilderness areas**
**	****North = 60%****	****	****Great Plains = 50%**
** ****Expanding commercial recreation**
**	****Rocky Mtn. = 21%****	****	****South = 31%**
*** overall, few differences between regions**

## Slide 57

## U.S. Population Density by 2020

**U.S. Population Density by 2020**

## Counties with Public Natural Land

**Counties with Public Natural Land**

## Counties with Forests

## Future Forest Hotspots (2020)

**Future Forest Hotspots (2020)**
**Ambient Population Pressures on Counties with Forests**

## Public Lands Overlaid onto Projected Recreation Demand Hotspots, 2020

## Future Forest Hotspots (2020) in the South

- Ambient Population Pressures on Counties with Forests

## Future Forest Hotspots (2020) 

- Future Forest Hotspots (2020)
- in the Southern Appalachians
- Ambient Population Pressures on Counties with Forests

## Future Forest Hotspots (2020) in the South

- Ambient Population Pressures on Counties with Forests

## Objectives for Managing National Forests in South Carolina

- (Percent in SC saying important to very important)

**Expanding access for motorized vehicles (18.6%)**

**Developing paved roads for cars (55.5%)**

**Conserving/protecting sources of water (93.4%)**

**Preserving resources through policies (69.3%)**

**Informing public on potential environmental impacts (82.4%)**

## The Changing American Society

-  **About 1 million new immigrants per year**
** **_**More people**_**:****	****1990****	****	****248 mm**
**	****	****	****2000****	****	****275 mm**
**	****	****	****2020****	****	****325 mm**
**	****	****	****2050****	****	****404 mm**
**	****	****	****2075****	****	****481 mm**
**	****	****	****2100****	****	****571 mm**
** **_**Getting older**_**:  Median age 35********38 (by 2020)**
** **_**Changing ethnicities**_** by 2050:**
**	****	****Anglo Americans ****	****	****76%********50%**
**	****	****African Americans****	**** ****	****12% ********15%**
**	****	****Hispanic Americans****	****  9% ********21%**
**	****	****Asian Americans****	****	****  4% ********11%**

## UNDERSTANDING

- THE PUBLIC

- Americans – Who Are We
- And What Do We Stand For?

- Ken Cordell, FS, Athens, GA
- www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends

- NF Leadership in South Carolina
- September 25, 2000