# Presentation: 863371

## AFRL/CISM Collaborations

***Nick Arge***
***Space Vehicles Directorate***
***Air Force Research Laboratory***

## Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) 

**CISM: ****NSF funded consortium to construct a comprehensive physics-based numerical simulation model that describes the space environment from the sun to the earth. **

**CISM Member Institutions**

**AFRL/CISM Collaborations:**
**Partnership on science and model development.**
**Application of CISM products to AF interests to facilitate transition to operations.   **

**Magnetosphere (Perry, Ginet, Hudson, Albert, Young) **
**Validation of GEO MeV electron forecast models.**
**Integrate radiation belt particle & diffusion models with coupled LFM MHD & RCM codes.**
**Ionosphere (Stan Solomon et al./Odile de la Beaujardiere, John Retterer, Keith Groves) **
**Couple CISM ionosphere model with C/NOFS "bubble calculator.”    **
**Compare scintillation results with SCINDA and C/NOFS data.**
**Solar (Arge, Odstrcil, Geymehr, Owens, Spence, McGregor) **
** ****The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal/ solar wind model. **
** ****WSA+ENLIL coupling. **

## WSA Coronal & Solar Wind Model

**Solar Wind Model**
**(e.g., 1D Kinematic model, ENLIL, HAF)**
**(5-30*****Rs***** to 1AU)**

**WSA Coronal & Solar Wind Model**

## WSA Model Coronal Output

- km s-1

- Where:
-  *f*s = Magnetic field expansion factor.
*θ*b = Minimum angular distance that an open field footpoint lies from nearest coronal hole boundary (i.e., Angular depth inside a coronal hole)

**WSA Model Coronal Output**

- Coronal Holes

- Coronal Field (5.0*R*)

## Solar Wind Speed and IMF Polarity in the Ecliptic Driven by Daily Updated Photospheric Field Maps

***Solar Wind Speed and IMF Polarity in the Ecliptic Driven by Daily Updated Photospheric Field Maps***

## Predictions & Observations:Near Solar Maximum

**IMF Polarity Predictions & Observations**

**Predictions & Observations:Near Solar Maximum**

## Predictions & Observations:Near Solar Minimum

**IMF Polarity Predictions & Observations**

**Predictions & Observations:Near Solar Minimum**

## Contingency Tables

**Event-based approach: high speed enhancements (HSE):**
**Captures more than 72% of the observed HSE events**
**Most of the false HSEs are small**
**Missed HSEs: are small events or transients**
**Timing of HSEs shows no offset. Slight underestimation of magnitude of fastest events – probably due to transients**

|  |  | Observed |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  | HSE | No HSE |
| 

Model | HSE | 166  | 36 |
|  | No HSE | 64 | - |

**Contingency Tables**

***Boston University ******Validation****** of WSA Event-Based Approach: (High Speed Events)***

***( Owens et al., JGR 2005)***

## Validating Coronal Models Using Coronal Holes

**Solar Minimum**

**Solar Maximum**

**Short After Solar Maximum**

** ****MAS/SAIC**

*** ******de Toma, Arge, and Riley (2005)***

## WSA Coronal - ENLIL MHD Solar Wind Model Coupling

**WSA Coronal - ENLIL MHD Solar Wind Model Coupling**

**Output of WSA MODEL **
**(R = 21.5  *****R*********)**

**Coronal Field Strength**

**Solar Wind Speed**

**ENLIL 3D MHD Solar Wind Model**

**Output of ENLIL MODEL at 1AU**

## Summary

**	****Solar, Magnetosphere, & Ionosphere realms.**
**	****Application of CISM products to AF interests to facilitate transition to operations**
**2)    The WSA model**
** ****	****P****redicts ambient solar wind speed and IMF polarity 1-7 days in advance.**
**	****Serves as the CISM baseline coronal/solar wind model. **
**	****Solar wind predictions validated using 8 years (~1 solar cycle) of predictions.**
** ****	****Coronal hole predictions compared with observations and MAS/SAIC MHD model.**
**	****Running in real-time at NOAA/SEC, CCMC, and AFRL(AFWA).**
**	****Officially delivered to CISM in Dec. 2005.**
**3)    Joint AFRL-CISM effort to couple the WSA+ENLIL model.**
**	****Useful forecasting tool and basic research model****.**

***Summary***