# Presentation: 164076

## Global Agricultural Outlook 2007/08

- Keith Menzie
- World Agricultural Outlook Board
- Brasilia, Brazil
- September 24, 2007

**Notes:**
Al, a look at what is ahead for veg oils first a review of where we have been lots to cover policy, prices, global situation, focus on supply factors primarily

## 

Supply & Demand Estimates
as of
September 12, 2007

**Supply & Demand Estimates**
**as of**
**September 12, 2007**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Biofuels Production 2007

- Note:  Based on projected 2007 calendar year ethanol and biodiesel production.

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Ethanol and Gasoline Prices

- Note:  Ethanol and regular gasoline prices are the monthly Nebraska rack (wholesale terminal) prices.

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol

- Note:  2006/07 through 2010/11 are projections from the September 12, 2007, *World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates* report and the February 2007 *USDA Agricultural Projections to 2016.*

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Global Industrial Vegetable Oil Use

**+10 pct (2 m tons)**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Industrial use continues to grow with biodiesel expansion, nears 20 percent of total vegetable oil consumption . . .

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## December 2007 Corn – up 40% from harvest 06 to planting 07!

**40% corn price rally**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is the response for 2007/08?

- Ethanol production, high corn prices drive corn area to 60 year highs!

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Corn Planted Area

- Note:  2007 planted area is an estimate from the *Acreage* report, June 29, 2007.

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Corn Supply and Demand

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Domestic Corn Use

- Note:  2006/07 and 2007/08 are projections from the *World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates* report, September 12, 2007.

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Farm Price

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Farm Price

- Sept. 26, 2007

## World Corn Production

- Sept. 26, 2007

## World Corn Ending Stocks-to-Use

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Oilseeds

## Review of 2006/07

- Record global oilseed production
- Record U.S. soybean planted area and production
- 2nd year of lower planted area in Brazil
- Sharply higher production in Argentina
- U.S., Arg. soybean exports increase as Brazil declines
- Record global crush
- Record soybean import demand in China (through 10 months)
- Record global oilseed stocks in fall 2007?
- Sharply higher U.S. oilseed stocks esp. soybeans (record high?)
- Record high soybean oil stocks, summer 2007

## Review of 2006/07

- Oilseed complex prices higher than expected given stock levels
- But rapidly expanding ethanol production and expectations of more in 2007/08 pushed corn prices sharply higher through Spring 2007
- As a result, the soybean/corn price ratio at planting dropped below 2!

## November 2007 Soybeans – up 25% from 06 harvest to 07 planting

- 25% rise in 5 months

- Sept. 26, 2007

## December 2007 Corn – up 40% from harvest 06 to planting 07!

**Bean/Corn ratio below 2**

**40% corn price rally**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Soybean-Corn Price Ratio

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is the response for 2007/08?

- U.S. soy producers sharply reduce area in 2007, by more than anticipated early
- South American soy producers are expected to increase planted area modestly (subject to change)
- Limited gains for other oilseeds, offsetting changes for rapeseed and sun

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Soybean Planted Area

- Note:  2007 planted area is an estimate from the *Acreage* report, June 29, 2007.

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. soybean production for 2007 dips to near 2003 drought level

**Production down 550 mil bu**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Expect recovery in soybean area in Brazil

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is going on in Brazil?

- High soybean prices partly offset by strong currency vs. U.S. dollar

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Brazilian Currency Valuation vs. U.S. Dollar

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Effect of Real Devaluation on Price 

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Effect of Real Devaluation on Price 

**+20% vs last year**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is going on in Brazil?

- High soybean prices partly offset by strong currency vs. U.S. dollar
- Transportation costs

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is going on in Brazil?

- High soybean prices partly offset by strong currency vs. U.S. dollar
- Transportation costs
- Rust control

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is going on in Brazil?

- High soybean prices partly offset by strong currency vs. U.S. dollar
- Transportation costs
- Rust control
- Environmental concerns

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is going on in Brazil?

- However, much higher soybean prices recently may alter plans!?!

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Argentina Soybean Harvested Area

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Brazil, Argentina SoybeanHarvested Area

- Brazil, Argentina SoybeanHarvested Area

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Soybean Production Trends

**Million Tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Rare annual reduction in global soybean production

**-15 million tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## World Soybean Production

- Sept. 26, 2007

## EU rapeseed production increases, but less than expected as an 8% yield drop offsets a 17% area increase

**+1 million tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Canadian canola production also affected by weather as 10% area increase is offset by an 8% yield reduction

**+ fractional**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Australia rapeseed production recovers from severe drought

**+1 million tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Combined China and India Rapeseed unchanged from 2006/07 . . . 

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Global rapeseed production recovers moderately from 2006/07

**+3 million tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Sunseed production higher in Argentina, but offset by lower FSU output on lower area

**-1.5 million tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Global sunflowerseed production declines from record production for 2005 and 2006

**-3 million tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Global oilseed production – 1st production decline since 1995/96

**-15 million tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Stocks and Use Outlook for 2007/08

- Soybean exports increase sharply for Brazil, Argentina as U.S. declines
- Record soybean import demand in China driven by protein and vegetable oil demand
- Global protein meal and oil consumption gains
- Reduced wheat feeding (EU), biodiesel gains (EU, U.S.)
- Sharply lower U.S. stocks of soybeans and soybean oil
- Sharp decline in global oilseed stocks fall 2008 (mainly soy)
- Prices for the oilseeds complex remain high

## Projected Growth Rates

|  | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | Average |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| U.S. | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| EU-27 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Japan | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| China | 10.4 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| India | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| World | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 |

**Source: Oxford Economics**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## China Soybean Import Dependence Expected to Continue to Increase

**Million Tons**

**Percent**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## China is Projected to Account for 45% of Global Soybean Imports

**Million Tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## China Soybean Imports

**Million Tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## China Soybean Imports by Source

**Million Tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## South American share of soybean trade increases as U.S. declines

**Bz + Ar share up 10 points to 55%**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Brazil soybean exports ... world share has been growing

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Soybean production increases in Argentina are directed mainly to crush ...

- Sept. 26, 2007

## ... although the production shortfall in U.S. will lead to higher Argentina seed exports for 2007/08

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Argentina continues to dominate major 3 soybean meal exporters with 52 pct share, up from 5-yr avg 45 pct

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Argentina Soybean Meal Exports

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Argentina continues to dominate major 3 soybean oil exports with 62 pct share vs 52 pct 5-yr avg

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Global soybean meal consumption growth accelerates in 2007/08 

**6 percent**
** ****growth**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Growth in Soybean Meal Consumption Led by China, EU, U.S.

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Growth in Soybean Meal Consumption Led by China, EU, U.S.

- These countries account for 2/3 of soybean meal consumption growth in 2007/08

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## EU soybean meal consumption growth returns after several years of limited gains

**2.5 million ton (7.5%) increase**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## What is going on in EU?

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is going on in EU?

- Reduced wheat production

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is going on in EU?

- Reduced wheat production
- Declining wheat stocks

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is going on in EU?

- Reduced wheat production
- Declining wheat stocks
- Higher wheat prices

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is going on in EU?

- Reduced wheat production
- Declining wheat stocks
- Higher wheat prices
- Reduced wheat feeding

- Sept. 26, 2007

## What is going on in EU?

- Reduced wheat production
- Declining wheat stocks
- Higher wheat prices
- Reduced wheat feeding
- Expanding roll for sbm feeding in rations

- Sept. 26, 2007

## EU Wheat Production Declines for 3rd Year

- EU Wheat Production Declines for 3rd Year

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## ...Leading to sharply lower EU stocks

- ...Leading to sharply lower EU stocks

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## ... and reduced wheat feeding

- ... and reduced wheat feeding

**3 million ton decline**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## China soybean meal consumption rises again, doubled in 6 years

**Million Tons**

- +9%

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Global Vegetable Oil Disappearance

**+4 pct (4.5 m tons)**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Global Industrial Vegetable Oil Use

**+10 pct (2 m tons)**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Industrial use continues to grow with biodiesel expansion, nears 20 percent of total vegetable oil consumption . . .

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## EU Industrial Use of Vegetable Oil

**Million Tons**

**7% of global vegetable oil production used by EU for BD**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Outlook for biodiesel in the U.S.

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. soybean oil used in biodiesel production

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Biodiesel share of U.S. domestic soybean oil use

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Monthly Soy Biodiesel Production

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Biodiesel Production Capacity

**1.11**

**2.56**

**3.22**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Declining U.S. soybean oil stocks ...

**Bil lbs.**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## December 2007 Soybean Oil – up 40 percent since last Fall

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Biodiesel Production Margin

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Biodiesel Net ExportsMarch – July 2007

**Net exports = 18% of 2007/08 production**
**(434 mil. lbs)**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. soybean oil used in biodiesel production

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Global oil stocks to use declines as growth in use exceeds production

**+6 pct**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Global oilseed stocks decline sharply from record levels

**-14.6 mil tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## Soybean, Product Price Outlook

|  | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | Change (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Soybeans ($/bu) | $6.40 | $7.85 | +23 |
| Soybean Meal ($/ton) | $205 | $220 | +7 |
| Soybean Oil (cents per lb) | 31 | 35 | +13 |

- Sept. 26, 2007

## 

Wheat

**Wheat**

- Sept. 26, 2007

## World Wheat Production

- Sept. 26, 2007

## U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Global wheat stocks declines as growth in use exceeds production

**+112 million tons**

- Sept. 26, 2007

**Notes:**
A large and growing population has created vast demand for vegetable oils in India.  However, soybeans are not the best oil yielding crop and demand for soybean meal within largely vegetarian India is relatively small.  Thus, India still needs to import large volumes of vegetable oils and exports its growing surplus of soybean meal throughout Asia.  Indian soybean producers have the world’s lowest yields, but farm returns are supported by India’s prohibition on imports of whole soybean seeds for crushing.  The Indian monsoon, on which soybean production is dependent for moisture, has been mostly normal for the last 10 years.

## World Wheat Ending Stocks-to-Use

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures Prices

- Source:  Chicago Board of Trade settlement prices.

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Summary

- High commodity prices into 2008
- Competition for acres in the U.S. in 2008 will be strong, favoring soybeans especially if any production shortfall in South America

- Sept. 26, 2007

## Questions?

**http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/**

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- Sept. 26, 2007