# Presentation: 045941

## Getting the Green Light:An Environmental Assessment of Today’s Passenger Vehicles

- James Kliesch
- American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

## Topical Overview

- Why should we be concerned?
- What makes a vehicle green/mean?
- How “green” has changed (or not) over the last five years
- Top stories of 2004
- Crystal ball: what lies ahead

## Why be concerned?

- Every 2 seconds in this country, a new vehicle is purchased
- Every other one of those is a light duty truck (pickup, minivan, SUV), typically with higher tailpipe emissions and lower fuel economy
- U.S. passenger vehicles consume ~125 billion gallons of gasoline each year.

## Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) continue to grow

## How do you address consumption & emissions?

- One way: promote the manufacture and purchase of clean, efficient vehicles.

## ACEEE’s Green Book®

- Consumer guide, produced annually since Feb 1998
- 7th edition (model year ‘04) released 2/10/04
- Available at www.GreenerCars.com

## GreenerCars.com

- Three main aspects to the website:
- Popular Tables (Greenest, Meanest, Best-in-Class)
- General consumer info on vehicles and the environment, how to buy green, etc.
- Database of all MY2000-2004 vehicles/configurations (approx. 6,200 listings), and their “Green Scores”

## What Determines a Vehicle’s Green-ness?

- Fuel Economy
- Affects overall GHG emissions, plus non-regulated tailpipe pollutants (ex. SOx, N2O)
- Affects upstream emissions
- Tailpipe Emissions
- A vehicle’s *emission standard* specifies quantity of CO, HC, NOx, PM emitted
- Embodied Emissions (to lesser degree)

## Emission Standard Primer

- California
- LEV I
- ULEV I
- LEV II
- ULEV II
- SULEV II
- PZEV

- Federal
- Tier 2 bin 11
- Tier 2 bin 10
- ...
- Tier 2 bin 5
- ...
- Tier 2 bin 2
- Tier 2 bin 1

## Select Tier 1 and Tier 2 Full Useful Life Exhaust Emission Standards

## Green Vehicles Have...

- High Fuel Economy
- Low Tailpipe Emissions
- Generally, what are those today?
- Hybrid-electric vehicles
- Fuel efficient gasoline vehicles that meet stringent emission standards
- CNG vehicles

## Mean Vehicles Have...

- Low Fuel Economy
- Bare-minimum Tailpipe Emissions
- Generally, what are those today?
- Large SUVs
- Large pickup trucks
- Performance-oriented sports cars
- Diesels (interesting case, because high FE)

- What a difference a half-decade makes...

## Greenest VehiclesModel Years 2000 & 2004

- Model Year 2000
- GM EV1
- Nissan Altra EV
- Honda Civic GX
- Honda Insight
- Toyota RAV4 EV
- Toyota Camry CNG
- Ford Electric Ranger
- Chevy Metro
- Toyota Echo
- Nissan Sentra CA
- Mitsubishi Mirage
- Honda Civic HX

- Model Year 2004
- Honda Civic GX
- Honda Insight
- Toyota Prius
- Honda Civic Hybrid
- Toyota Echo
- Nissan Sentra
- Honda Civic HX
- Mazda 3
- Toyota Corolla
- Hyundai Elantra
- Scion xA
- Honda Civic

- Then again...

## Meanest VehiclesModel Years 2000 & 2004

- Model Year 2000
- Chevy Suburban
- Dodge Ram 2500
- Ferrari Maranello
- Chevy Silverado
- Ford Excursion
- Dodge B2500 Van
- Chevy K2500 Pickup
- Cadillac Escalade
- GMC Yukon Denali
- Toyota Land Cruiser
- Ferrari 456M
- Land Rover Range Rover

- Model Year 2004
- Volkswagen Touareg
- Land Rover Range Rover
- Ford Excursion
- Dodge Ram 1500
- Lexus LX 470
- Toyota Land Cruiser
- Hummer H2
- GMC Yukon XL K2500
- Chevy Suburban K2500
- Toyota Sequoia
- Lamborghini Murcielago
- Land Rover Discovery Ser. II

## Top Stories of Model Year 2004

- (1) Federal Tier 2 and California LEV II tailpipe emission standards go into effect.
- Greater #’s of SULEVs & PZEVs -- cleanest emissions levels of gasoline vehicles ever
- On the whole, modest improvement federally, although standout models exist

## Increasing Number of SULEV and PZEV Nameplates

## Top Stories of Model Year 2004

- (2) Hybrids continue to be a big story
- New Toyota Prius, now midsize car, gets 3rd highest overall score, and highest rating of gasoline powered sedans (meets PZEV/Tier 2 bin 3 emissions; FE: 60/51)
- Mild hybrid GMC Sierra Hybrid/Chevy Silverado Hybrid (FE: 19 mpg hybrid vs. 17 mpg conventional)

## The Growth of Hybrid-Electric Vehicles

- MY2000
- Honda Insight
- MY2001
- Toyota Prius
- MY2003
- Honda Civic Hybrid
- MY2004
- Toyota Prius (New)
- GM Silverado/Sierra Hybrid

- MY2005 and beyond high-profile hybrids
- Ford Escape HEV
- Lexus RX400H
- Toyota Highlander
- Honda Accord
- Saturn VUE
- Rumored
- Honda Odyssey

## HEV Sales Figures/Estimates

- Today: ~40,000 annual
- 50% Prius
- 47% Civic Hybrid
- 3% Insight
- 2007: ~500,000 annual

## Top Stories of Model Year 2004

- (3) Overall, FE continues to decline
- Most recent confirmed information shows combined car/truck fuel economy at lowest level since 1980
- Due to high sales of large SUVs and pickups
- These market segments have been aggressively pursued by import companies (i.e., not just a Big 3 problem)

## Passenger Car/TruckFuel Economy Trends				(Hellman and Heavenrich 2003)

## Improvements in Low-Fuel Economy Vehicles are Critical

- 14 mpg --> 16 mpg
- (a 14% improvement)
- Saves 134 gallons annually

- 35 mpg --> 51 mpg
- (a 46% improvement)
- Saves 134 gallons annually

## SUVs on the Rise(J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)

## The Changing SUV Segment(J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)

## Reason For Entry/Luxury SUV Growth: Crossover Vehicles

## Are Crossovers Environmentally Friendly?

- Eco-friendliness depends on use:
- Is it a greener alternative for ski trips to mountains?  Perhaps.
- Can you save the planet by using it to zip around town?  No.
- Eco-friendliness depends on vehicle:
- Pontiac Vibe?  Yes.
- Infiniti FX45?  No.

## What Lies Ahead?

## Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball

*Near-Term (Present-2010)*
- Continued improvement of gasoline-powered vehicles
- Release of new hybrid vehicles
- Continued deployment of an alternative technologies portfolio
- Room for diesel?

## Near-Term (Present-2010)

- Continued improvement of gasoline-powered vehicles
- Lightweight materials use; engine operation (EGR, VVT, etc.); transmission improvements (CVT); improved OBD
- Seen today in Honda Civic, Nissan Sentra CA, Honda Accord PZEV, Ford Focus PZEV, others

## Near-Term (Present-2010)

- Release of new hybrid-electric vehicles
- Ford Escape HEV
- Lexus RX400H
- Toyota Highlander
- Honda Accord
- Saturn VUE
- Others: Chevrolet Equinox (2006), Malibu (2007)

## Near-Term (Present-2010)

- Continued deployment of an alternative technologies portfolio
- Alt fuel vehicles, primarily in fleet use (at least initially)
- Electric minicars
- Test deployment of fuel cell vehicles

## Near-Term (Present-2010)

- Room for diesel?
- Numerous questions remain about the viability of significant light duty diesel penetration

## Diesel Car and Light Truck Retail Sales, 1970-2001

## A Host of Issues AffectDiesel Prospects

- Technology Costs
- Health Impacts
- Regulatory Constraints
- Fuel Quality
- Technical Developments
- Consumer Attitudes

## Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball

*Mid-Term (2015-2030)*
- Stronger presence of hybrid-electric vehicles
- Introduction of fuel cell vehicles

## Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball

*Far-Term (2030 and beyond)*
- Stronger presence of fuel cell vehicles
- Need time to develop cell technologies and production techniques
- Need time to address dual-conundrum of (1) using hydrogen and dealing with storage/infrastructure, or (2) using liquid fuel (such as methanol) and dealing with processing

## Thank You

- James Kliesch
- American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
- 1001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 801
- Washington, DC 20036
- (202) 429-8873
- jkliesch@aceee.org