# Presentation: 194308

## Future NWS Hydrology Science and Technology

- August 7,2001
- NWS Corporate Board Meeting
- By
- Curtis B. Barrett
- NOAA National Weather Service

##       New Hydrologic Science and Technology Infusion

- 		Predict Flash floods at small scales
- 		Visualize  Forecasts to population at risk
- 		Provide Global Hydrometeorological 		Forecast  Services

## Catastrophic Flash Floods

- Catastrophic Flash Floods

## PREDICT FLASH FLOODS AT SMALL SCALES

-  Use GIS Data to define models & Streams
- Merge Satellite and Radar Precipitation estimates
- Use Distributed Hydrologic models
- Link QPF to small scale models

## Regional Areal Flash Flood Guidance and Warning System

## Stand Alone Stations

## River Station

- <date/time>

**River Station**

## Satellite Precipitation Estimates Rio Bravo

## The Spatial Scale of Hydrologic Modeling

- National

- Major River System

- River Basin with Forecast Points

- Forecast Group

- Headwater Basin and Radar Rainfall Grid

- High Resolution Basins

## Visualize Warnings

- GIS Defines flood plain/Infrastructure
- Complete model linkage to ARC INFO link
- Produce Flood Information/Maps with User input
- Flood Map information linked to Media & Users

## Flood Probability Scenarios

## AGNES FLOOD FORECAST PRODUCT

- FLOOD BULLETIN
- RECORD STAGES HAVE OCCURRED OR ARE FORECAST FOR SUSQUEHANA RIVER FROM THE NEW YORK BORDER SOUTHWARD. NEW RECORD STAGES ON THE WEST BRANCH BELOW RENOVO ARE RESULTING FROM THE RECORD RAINS OF THE LAST 48 HOURS.  ON THE NORTH BRANCH AT TOWANDA AND WILKES BARRE CREST STAGES WILL EXCEED ALL PREVIOUS RECORDS BY 6 TO 8 FEET.
- AT 5:30 AM THE STAGE AT HARRISBURG WAS 29.23 FEET AND RISING.  THIS IS EQUAL TO THE CREST STAGE OF THE HISTORIC 1936 FLOOD.  HARRISBURG IS FORECAST TO CREST NEAR 32 FEET LATER TODAY.  7 AM STAGE AT HARRISBURG WAS 29.85 FEET AND RISING SLOWLY.
- THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER HAS LOST POWER AND IS TRANSFERRING TO STATE CIVIL DEFENSE HEADQUARTERS IN THE CAPITOL.
- RIVER BULLETIN	11:30 PM EDT		FRIDAY	JUNE 23, 1972
- STATION		FLOOD STAGE		CREST FORECAST	DAY 	TIME
- MAPLETOWN		20 FEET		28 FEET		6/23	1 AM
**LEWISTOWN****	****	****23 FEET****	****	****34 FEET****	****	****6/23****	****1 AM**
- WATSONTOWN	17 FEET		33 FEET		6/23	9 PM

##    World Water Crisis

- By 2010 over 50% of global runoff  claimed
- World population will increase up to 10 billion by 2050
- Water use competition is intensifying between Agriculture, domestic, industrial and energy
- Trans-boundary competition for water threatens international stability (About 50% of all river basins are trans-boundary and involve 85% of worlds freshwater)
- Polluted water, water shortages, and unsanitary conditions kill
- 12 million people per year
- Economic losses from weather related disasters have reached a record high- $92billion in 1998.

##  Total Insured and Uninsured Losses from Weather related Natural Disasters1980-1998

- Figure 1

## Provide Global Forecast Services

- NWS NCEP CPC Provides QPF and Satellite Rainfall Estimates to FEWS
- Developing countries frequently request forecast assistance to NWS
- NWS provides proposal to USAID to provide “Threats Assessment” capability to support U.S. Response and Recovery efforts
- In February, 2000 Government of Mozambique requested forecast assistance for catastrophic flooding
- Through NWS Technology Transfer Program, NWS has established NWSRFS in over 8 countries. Sustaining this technology is very difficult due to capacity limitations

## NWS INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

- NWSRFS NOW OPERATIONAL
- Mexico, China, Panama, Czech Republic, Egypt,S. Africa
- Central America (Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras)
- REGIONAL PROJECT STARTUP IN CENTRAL AMERICA
- FUTURE NWSRFS  PROJECTS
- Poland, Venezuela, Vietnam, ?

## Provide Global Forecast Services 

- Congressman Frank Wolf expresses interest in understanding and increasing NOAA’s support to developing nations
- USAID OFDA seriously addressing U.S. taking mitigation posture to  reduce U.S. Response and Recover costs
- State Department wants to  increase regional political stability and reduce conflict due to competition for water. Hydrologic forecasting is  key element
- NWS and Mexico Cooperating to share Hydromet Operations West Gulf RFC soon to be sister to Monterey Mexico RFC

## Provide Global Forecast Services

- NWS is encouraging Regional Hydromet capabilities
- NOAA has established Regional Satellite Product dissemination, Climate Forecasting and Training facility in Costa Rica
- NWS submitted Proposal to establish Central America HYDROMET Operations Center to World Bank, USAID and IDB
- NWS is positioned to establish a global Hydrologic and Meteorological  Prediction Center .

## It Could Happen To You...

## Slide 20

## Hydrologic Response at Different Points in the Blue River Basin

**Hydrologic Response at Different Points in the Blue River Basin**

***Basin***
***Outlet***

**Hydrograph at Location A**

**Hydrograph at Location B**

**Hydrographs at Basin Outlet**

## Regional Areal Flash Flood Guidance and Warning System

## REMOTE SENSED DATA

- 24 hr  Raw Radar Estimate

- 24 hour RFC-Wide Multisensor Precipitation Estimate

- Analysis of 24 hour co-op gage reports

- The rainfall accumulation on the left was computed by mosaicing individual WSR-88D hourly estimates and summing them into a 24 hour accumulation.   The middle image was created by summing hourly RFC-wide multisensor precipitation estimates into a 24 hour accumulation.  The image on the right is an analysis of  24 hour gage reports from co-op observers.

## NWSRFS Hydrologic Forecasting Data Inputs and Applications

- Precip - Gage

- Precip - Radar

- Snowpack

- Precip - Satellite

- Streamflow

- Weather
- Forecasts

- Climate
- Predictions

- Hydrologic
- Forecasting
- (NWSRFS)

- Flash Flood
- Watch/Warnings

- River/Flood
- Forecast/Warnings

- Hydropower

- Water Supply

- Irrigation

- Recreation

- Navigation

## AUTOMATED FLOOD WARNING SYSTEMS (ALERT)

- Community Based concept
- Consists of Automated sensors, gages,
- Communication system and Alarming at a 24 hour
- Base station
- ALERT System Coordinator dedicated
- Continuously monitors for heavy rain or rapid rise
- In stream

## Regional Flash Flood Forecast System

- Uses satellite derived rainfall estimates (1 km) and
- rain gage data
- QPF
- Use GIS data to define model parameters & flash
- Flood potential
- Use 1 km distributed hydrologic modeling system
- Calculate soil moisture and runoff

## Regional Areal Flash Flood Guidance and Warning System

- Flash Flood Potential
- In Saturated Soils

- Soil Moisture Estimates

- Data Base

- Flood Potential of
- Small Watersheds

- Satellite Rainfall
- Estimates

- Rainfall
- Forecast

- DISSEMINATION