# Presentation: 908933

## Impact of Projected Prices On Low-Income Energy Bills for 2006

- EIA STEO for September, 2005
- and
- RECS for 2001 data bases

## SHORT-TERM MARKET CONDITIONS

- Inventories at or above average levels for all major fuels
- Imports of fuel oil and propane are making up for Katrina and Rita
- Natural Gas shortfalls in hurricane-related production are hard to replace

- Normal weather will increase demand
- Consumers of fuel and propane now compete with European demand
- Natural gas demand is highly dependent on industrial and power generation growth

- SUPPLY

- DEMAND

## RATE OF INCREASE IN  RESIDENTIAL ENERGY PRICES BY FUEL TYPESince 1992(Nominal dollars)

- Sources:  DOE/EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, September 2005, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census

## RATE OF INCREASE IN HEATING BILLS FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS BY FUEL TYPESince 2001

- Source:  DOE/EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, September 2005

## PRIMARY HEATING FUEL FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS

- Source: DOE/EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey for 2001

## EXPECTED EXPENDITURES FOR 2005-2006Low-Income Households

- Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

## DISTRIBUTION OF LOW-INCOME EXPENDITURES 

**DISTRIBUTION OF LOW-INCOME EXPENDITURES **
**FOR HOUSEHOLDS HEATING WITH GAS IN THE MIDWEST**
** ****FY 2006**

- Source: ORNL Tabulation

- Median= 1882.5

- Number of Households

- Total Residential Energy Expenditures In Dollars

- ,

## AGGREGATE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES BY LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDSAT OR BELOW 150% OF POVERTY LEVEL

- SOURCE: ORNL TABULATION BASED ON EIA STEO AND RECS

**Millions of Dollars**

## PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS By Primary Heating Fuel

- Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

## PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS By Primary Heating Fuel

- Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

## PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDSBy Primary Heating Fuel

- Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

## PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDSBy Primary Heating Fuel

- Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

## PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDSBy Primary Heating Fuel

- Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

## PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDSBy Primary Heating Fuel

- Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

## PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDSBy Primary Heating Fuel

- Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

## PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDSBy Primary Heating Fuel

- Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

## Three-Month Forecast

- SOURCE: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER

- October through December

## Three-Month Forecast

- SOURCE: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER

- January through March

## HISTORY OF MIDWINTER NATURAL GAS COMMODITY PRICEPrice Trend For January 06 Futures Contract

- Source: Wall Street Journal, 10/6/05

## HISTORY OF MIDWINTER NATURAL GAS COMMODITY PRICEPrice Trend For January 07 Futures Contract

|  |
| --- |

| Contract | Chart Display |
| --- | --- |
|  |  |
| Studies |  |
|  |  |
|  |  |

|                                                             |
| --- |

| Tick  | 5 min  | 15 min  | 30 min  | 60 min  | Daily  | Weekly  | Monthly  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

| Contract |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- |
|    |  |  |
| Symbol |  |  |
| Month |  |  |
| Year |  |  |

| Period |  |
| --- | --- |
| Style |  |
| Size |  |
| Density |  |

|  | Parameters: |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

- Source: Wall Street Journal, 10/6/05