# Presentation: 667095

## Texas Youth Crash Statistics 

**NTSB Forum on Improving Driver and Traffic Safety Education**
**Presentation by**
**	****Terry Kline, Ed.D.     **
**	****Associate Professor**
**	****Eastern Kentucky University**
**	****Traffic Safety Institute**
**	****Loss Prevention and Safety Department**
**	****College of Justice and Safety**

## The Texas Situation

**Certified Instructors were required until 1995**
**State certified curriculum**
**Three options for providing program**
**32 hours classroom and 7 in-car most used**
**All instructors state certified**
**After 1995, parents were allowed to certify program completion**
**Used State certified curriculum provided by TX DPS**
**32 hours of classroom and 14 in-car only option**
**Parents not required to be certified**

## How Did This Happen?

**Original concept for home-schooling**
** ****Law did not limit to home-schooled parent training**
** ****Certificates purchased from TX DPS**
** ****Full certification for licensing and insurance purposes**
** ****waiver of in-car driving for licensure**
** ****insurance certificate accepted as proof of completion**

## Alternatives Considered

**Parent training certification course**
**No parent training except for home-schooling with certification**
**Completion certificate would not be waiver for driving test **

## Confounding Effects

**Assumption of correct data supplied by TX DPS**
**Crash reporting differences**
**Age based recording changes 1998**
**Non-injury reports may be self-reported**
**National age comparison data may not be recorded in the same manner**

## Research Statistics

**Research Statistics**

**Parent Certification efforts increase**

- Texas Education Agency, 2002

## Research Statistics

** **
**	****Year****	****        Age                    Rates****	****               Over (+)/ Under (–)**
**	****	****                          ****Crash     Licensure****	**** Involvement ***
**	**
**	****2000     15        0.4****	****      0.4****	****                 0.00 even**
**	****1999     15****	****      0.3****	****      0.4****	****                 0.25 –**
**	****1998     15****	****      0.3****	****      0.4****	****                 0.25 –**
**	****1997     15****	****      0.2****	****      0.4****	****                 0.50 –**
**	****1996     15****	****      0.2****	****      0.4****	****                 0.50 –**
**	****1995     15****	****      0.2****	****      0.4****	****                 0.50 –**
**	****1994     15****	****      0.2****	****      0.4****	****                 0.50 –**
**	****1993     15****	****      0.2****	****      0.4****	****                 0.50 –**

**Change in Crash Rates for 15 year-old drivers**

## Research Statistics

**Year****	****            Age                    Rates****	****               Over (+)/ Under (–)**
**	****	****                          ****Crash     Licensure****	**** Involvement ***
**	**
**2000****	****     16****	****        2.8      1.0****	****   1.80 +**
**1999****	****     16****	****        2.8      1.0****	****   1.80 +**
**1998****	****     16****	****        2.7      1.1****	****   1.46 +**
**1997****	****     16****	****        1.6      1.0****	****   0.60 +**
**1996****	****     16****	****        1.7      1.1****	****   0.56 +**
**1995****	****     16****	****        1.6      1.0****	****   0.60 +**
**1994****	****     16****	****        1.6      1.0****	****   0.60 +**
**1993****	****     16****	****        1.6      1.0****	****   0.60 +**
**	**

**Change in Crash Rates for 16 year-old drivers**

## Research Statistics

**Year****	****       Age                    Rates****	****               Over (+)/ Under (–)**
**	****	****                          ****Crash     Licensure****	**** Involvement ***
**	**
**2000****	****     17****	****        3.5      1.3****	****   1.69 +**
**1999****	****     17****	****        3.3      1.3****	****   1.54 +**
**1998****	****     17****	****        3.3      1.3****	****   1.54 +**
**1997****	****     17****	****        3.1      ****1.0****	****   2.10 +**
**1996****	****     17****	****        3.0      1.2****	****   1.50 +**
**1995****	****     17****	****        2.9      1.1****	****   1.60 +**
**1994****	****     17****	****        2.9      1.1****	****   1.60 +**
**1993****	****     17****	****        2.8      1.1****	****   1.54 +**

**Change in Crash Rates for 17 year-old drivers**

## Research Statistics

**Year****	****       Age                    Rates****	****               Over (+)/ Under (–)**
**	****	****                          ****Crash     Licensure****	**** Involvement ***
**	**
**2000****	****     18****	****        4.0      1.6****	****1.50 +**
**1999****	****     18****	****        3.9      1.6****	****1.44 +**
**1998****	****     18****	****        3.7      1.6****	****1.31 +**
**1997****	****     18****	****        3.4      1.5****	****1.26 +**
**1996****	****     18****	****        3.3      1.4****	****1.36 +**
**1995****	****     18****	****        3.3      1.4****	****1.36 +**
**1994****	****     18****	****        3.1      1.4****	****1.21 +**
**1993****	****     18****	****        3.1      1.4****	****1.21 +**

**Change in Crash Rates for 18 year-old drivers**

## Research Statistics

**2000****	****	****19****	****3.9****	****1.8****	****1.16 +**
**1999****	****	****19****	****3.7****	****1.8****	****1.06 +**
**1998****	****	****19****	****3.5****	****1.7****	****1.06 +**
**1997****	****	****19****	****3.5****	****1.7****	****1.06 +**
**1996****	****	****19****	****3.5****	****1.7****	****1.06 +**
**1995****	****	****19****	****3.3****	****1.6****	****1.06 +**
**1994****	****	****19****	****3.3****	****1.6****	****1.06 +**
**1993****	****	****19****	****3.3****	****1.6****	****1.06 +**
** **
**2000****	****	****20****	****3.6****	****1.8****	****1.00 +**
**1999****	****	****20****	****3.3****	****1.8****	****0.83 +**
**1998****	****	****20****	****3.3****	****1.8****	****0.83 +**
**1997****	****	****20****	****3.3****	****1.8****	****0.83 +**
**1996****	****	****20****	****3.2****	****1.8****	****0.78 +**
**1995****	****	****20****	****3.2****	****1.8****	****0.78 +**
**1994****	****	****20****	****3.1****	****1.8****	****0.72 +**
**1993****	****	****20****	****3.1****	****1.8****	****0.72 +**
** **
**2000****	****	****21****	****3.3****	****1.8****	****0.83 +**
**1999****	****	****21****	****3.1****	****1.9****	****0.63 +**
**1998****	****	****21****	****3.1****	****1.9****	****0.63 +**
**1997****	****	****21****	****3.0****	****1.9****	****0.58 +**
**1996****	****	****21****	****3.1****	****1.9****	****0.63 +**
**1995****	****	****21****	****3.1****	****1.9****	****0.63 +**
**1994****	****	****21****	****3.0****	****1.9****	****0.58 +**
**1993****	****	****21****	****3.1****	****2.0****	****0.55 +**

**Stable Crash Rates for 19-21 year-old drivers**

## Research Statistics

**Year              Age             Rates              Over (+)/ Under (–)****	****     Rate of****	****         Rate of**
**	****	****          ****Crash   Licensure      Involvement *****	****     Change****	****         Change**
**	****	****	****	****	****  ****Involvement ****	****         Baseline**
**	**
- 1997-2000	<15     0.10	<0.05	>1.00 +	      0%	      100% down
- 1993-1996	<15     0.10	<0.05	>1.00 +                 (1 time lower than base rate)
- 1997-2000	  15     0.30	  0.40	  0.25 –	    50% up	        15.66% up
- 1993-1996	  15     0.20	  0.40	  0.50 –          (15.7 times higher than base rate)
- 1997-2000	  16     2.48	  1.03	  1.41 +	  143% up	        46.66% up
- 1993-1996	  16     1.63	  1.03	  0.58 +         (46.7 times higher than base rate)
- 1997-2000	  17     3.30	  1.23	  1.68 +	      7% up	          1.33% up
- 1993-1996	  17     2.90	  1.13	  1.57 +         (1.33 times higher than base rate)
- 1997-2000	  18     3.75	  1.58	  1.37 +	      6% up	          1.00% up
- 1993-1996	  18     3.20	  1.40	  1.29 +                (1 time higher than base rate)
- 1997-2000	  19     3.65	  1.75	  1.08 +	      2% up	          Baseline
- 1993-1996	  19     3.35	  1.63	  1.06 +
- 1997-2000	  20     3.38	  1.80	  0.80 +	      6% up	          Baseline
- 1993-1996	  20     3.15	  1.80	  0.75 +
- 1997-2000	  21     3.13	  1.88	  0.66 +	      1% up	          Baseline
- 1993-1996	  21     3.08	  1.93	  0.60 +
** **
- Baseline rate of change is  3 % for 19 to 21 year-old drivers.
- Baseline rate is expected rate of change based on population described above.

**Texas Crash Rate Comparisons**

## Research Statistics

**Year****	****                   Age****	****Rates                  Over (+)/ Under (–)            Rate of****	****                      Rate of**
**	****	****                  ****Crash****	****   Licensure****	****   Involvement*****	****            Change****	****                      Change**
**	****	****	****	****                                     ****(Involvement)                    (Baseline)**
** **
- 1993-1996	<16        0.50   <0.05        >  9.00 +	       33% up	             298% up
- 1997-2000	<16        0.65   <0.05	  > 12.00 +           (2.98 times higher than base rate)
- 1993-1996	  16        2.80     0.83	     2.37 +            14% up	               69% up
- 1997-2000	  16        3.25     0.88	     2.69 +             (0.69 times higher than base rate)
- 1993-1996	  17        3.33     1.25	     1.66 +	        19% up             129% up
- 1997-2000	  17        3.80     1.28	     1.97 +             (1.29 times higher than base rate)
- 1993-1996	  18        3.53     1.40	     1.52+	          5% up               40% down
- 1997-2000	  18        3.90     1.50	     1.60 +             (0.40 times lower than base rate)
- 1993-1996	  19        3.30     1.58	     1.09 +
- 1997-2000	  19        3.55     1.60	     1.22 +	         12% up               Baseline
- 1993-1996	  20        3.10     1.63	     0.85 +
- 1997-2000	  20        3.20     1.68	     0.90 +	           6% up               Baseline
- 1993-1996	  21        3.00     1.77	     0.70 +
- 1997-2000	  21        2.88     1.65	     0.75 +	           7% up               Baseline
* *
- 	National baseline rate of change is  8.3%  for 19 to 21 year-old drivers.
- 	National baseline rate is expected rate of change based on population described above.

**National Crash Rate Comparisons**

## Vision for the Future

**More research is needed for novice drivers in all states to make some comparisons**
**Monies being directed to research problems of the older driver population than novice driver population**
**Need to find ways to improve our education process instead of giving up on a valuable means of getting a reliable knowledge base for all drivers**
**Current needed knowledge base is expanding dramatically but education efforts based on 1960- 1970 research and materials**

## Summary

**Effort is being made by Texas Transportation Institute and NHTSA to study novice driver crash rates**
**Need to develop educational base on basic knowledge and skills for Phase One**
**Need to develop educational base on crash causation for Phase Two**
**Need to provide materials for parent training for positive training reinforcement**

## Texas Youth Crash Statistics 

**NTSB Forum on Improving Driver and Traffic Safety Education**
**Presentation by**
**	****Terry Kline, Ed.D.     **
**	****Associate Professor**
**	****Eastern Kentucky University**
**	****Traffic Safety Institute**
**	****Loss Prevention and Safety Department**
**	****College of Justice and Safety**