# Presentation: 676974

## 6. Climate Products and Applications Team                                                 

- Experiments on Red Computer. Goals (as per fall 2005):
- 6.1. One set of CFS hindcasts to establish general soil moisture impacts. To answer the forecaster’s : “What is the cause of THIS anomaly in CFS forecast”.
- 6.2. One set of CFS experiments to find areas on the globe that are particularly sensitive to soil moisture. “Hot spots”.
- Specifically:
- 1. Set of standard CFS runs (Control) February (IC) - End of August, 1981-2005. Extract Model Climatology of soil moisture and snow depth in May.
- 2. Make climatology runs April 29 – May 3 (5 ICs) out till end of August. (tier 1)
- 3. As 2, but now a patch added at the initial time, 2000-2004 only.
- Call this set of three model runs an experiment.
**People actively involved: Suranjana Saha, Yun Fan, Huug van den Dool**

- Example of EXP I, patch over India

- In MAY

- w

- P

- T

- E

- Interactive patch runs maintain a soil anomaly patch until the end of summer. Exps done as tier-1, not AMIP-style.

- In August:

## Conclusions

- Planned runs are largely finished. (See PS for detail)
- Tier-1 approach for initial soil moisture anomalies appears possible (instead of AMIP style Tier-2 prescribed time varying soil moisture.)
- Influence of initial soil moisture anomalies on May, 1 can be traced in soil moisture, evaporation, maximum temperature etc until August. Precipitation??

## Next year:

- Analysis of these runs in terms of
- Effect of initial soil moisture anomalies on those elements CPC predicts.
- Hydrological and energy balance
- Impact of T126 vs T62; OSU vs Noah, i.e. some of the planned changes from current CFS04 to NEW CFS08.
- Leveraging off 5-yr NASA intra-seasonal proposal (the ‘patch’ runs).

## PS. These runs were made:

- EXP I  (T62/OSU)
- 0.   CFS  25 years x 5 IC's = 125 (6-month runs), already done in 2004
- CFS CLIMO = 25 years x 5 IC's = 125 (4-month runs)     (6.1)
- CFS+PATCH U.S. = 5 years x 5 IC's x 3 patches = 75 (4-month runs)
- CFS+PATCH India = 5 years x 5 IC's x 3 patches = 75 (4-month runs)    {{{ 6.2}}}
- CFS+PATCH Africa = 5 years x 5 IC's x 3 patches = 75 (4-month runs)
- EXP II  (T62/Noah)
- CFS+NOAH CLIMO = 25 years x 5 IC's = 125 (4-month runs)
- CFS+NOAH = 25 years x 5 IC's = 125 (6-month runs)
- CFS+NOAH PATCH U.S. = 5 years x 5 IC's x 3 patches = 75 (4-month runs)
- CFS+NOAH PATCH Africa = 5 years x 5 IC's x 3 patches = 75 (4-month runs)
- CFS+NOAH PATCH India = 5 years x 5 IC's x 3 patches = 75 (4-month runs)
- ---------------------- TOTAL = 825 runs (4050 months, 337.5 years !!) -----
- EXP III: as I and II, but T126/Noah.
- Key:  (Blue Partially done) (Red Finished)

## Suppose we have a land domain which has climatological soil moisture everywhere, except in a small patch (radius, lat/lon position, peak value). 

- Suppose we have a land domain which has climatological soil moisture everywhere, except in a small patch (radius, lat/lon position, peak value).
- Q: What will the effect of this anomaly patch be on subsequent T, E, P ???
- Posed this way ‘attribution’ is ‘easier’ than when a realistic soil moisture anomaly distribution were used. (The latter runs are made also).

- Land Domain

- Wet or dry patch

- Green’s function

- PS 2