# Presentation: 666769

## AgExports raised $1 billion to record $64.5 billionAgImports raised $500 million to $61.5 billion AgTrade Surplus set at $3 billion

**FY 2006 Export Forecasts for**
**Ag, Fishery & Solid Wood Products**

- USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
- was released on November 22, 2005, 4pm EST
- Prepared by Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

## U.S. Agricultural Trade

**U.S. Agricultural Trade**

***Exports***

***Imports***

***Trade Balance******   ***

- In 2006, horticulture, cotton & livestock products drive export growth, while low       grain & oilseed prices persist and some BSE beef import bans on remain.            Imports continue rapid rise on strong consumer demand led by horticultural products.

**61.5**

- Record

- 62.4

**3.0**

**64.5**

- 57.7

**4.7**

## Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

**Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products**

- Includes corn gluten feed/meal

- Revised FY 2006 Forecasts
*Upside Developments*
-  Low-priced feed grains and reduced competition from Argentine corn should stimulate US corn sales
-  US hard wheat prices up due to strong demand and tight supplies
-  Stronger rice prices due to somewhat tighter global markets
*Downside Developments*
-  Corn export volume lagging
-  Ample global wheat supplies should restrain any growth in US market share
*Wild Cards*
-  China’s corn exports
-  Impact of bird flu (AI) on feed grain demand as consumers switch from poultry to other meats

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $500 million to $16.3 billion

## Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

**Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products**

- Excludes corn gluten feed/meal

- Revised FY 2006 Forecasts
*Upside Developments*
-  Abundant US soybean supplies
- China soybean imports expected at record 27.5 mmt in MY 2005/06
- Soy oil supported by rising demand for use as bio-diesel
*Downside Developments*
-  US soybean exports to EU lower with large Brazil exports continuing into early US sales season
-  Upward revision in US soybean crop & US stocks pressure prices
*Wild Cards*
-  SAmerican soybean plantings and harvest; China’s imports
-  Impact of bird flu (AI) on feed demand as consumers switch from poultry to other meats

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $800 million to $10.3 billion

## Export Outlook for Cotton

**Export Outlook for Cotton**

- Note:  FY ’05 and prior years based on U.S Census data; FY ’06 forecast based on WASDE MY forecast.

- Revised FY 2006 Forecasts
*Upside Developments*
-  Since August, upward revision of 1.87 million bales for the 2005/06 U.S. crop estimate due to favorable weather
-  Downward revision of 1.5 million bales in China’s crop estimate and quality concerns due to rain
*Downside Developments*
-  Larger crops in several other exporting countries, Uzbekistan and Greece
*Wild Cards*
-  Cotton share in China spinning
-  U.S./China textile agreement may impact U.S. cotton opportunities in China

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:  Unchanged at $4.5 billion

## Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry

**Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry**

- Revised FY 2006 Forecasts
*Upside Developments*
-  Pork exports up in vol (73,000 MT) and value ($152 million) to record 955.000 MT valued at $2.4 billion; demand strong in part due to health issue concerns surrounding beef & poultry
*Downside Developments*
-  Lower prices for broiler meat and dairy products offset volume gains
*Wild Cards*
-  AI concerns may lower poultry meat demand in selected countries
-  Timing of the lifting of BSE bans;  beef exports remain flat assuming bans remain in place

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $600 million to $12.5 billion

## Export Outlook for Horticultural Products

- Record

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast
*Upside Developments*
-  Higher unit values for many prods; sales to key mkts in Canada, Mexico, EU & Japan remain strong
-  Tree nut exports, estimated at a record $3 billion; record almond sales are the single largest factor
-  A weaker US dollar keeps US exports price competitive
*Downside Development*
-  Florida citrus crops damaged by Hurricane Wilma reducing exportable supply
*Wild Cards*
-  Extent of Florida hurricane damage
-  Almond exports off to a slow start
-  New phytosanitary issues

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:  Unchanged at $15.9

## Export Outlook for Fishery Products

**Export Outlook for Fishery Products**

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $300 Million to $4 Billion

_***Trade Balance***_
**The FY 2005 trade deficit in fishery products was $7.9 billion.**

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast
*Key Upside Developments*
-  The large salmon harvest of over 206 million fish in 2005 (up 23% over 2004) will help increase exports
-  The King Crab harvest and exports are expected to be up in FY 2006
-  Surimi exports continue to do well due to increased demand for quality product
*Key Downside Developments*
-  Shrimp exports are expected to be down about 25% in FY 2006 due to hurricane damage to the industry in 2005
*Wild Cards*
-  Size of U.S. FY 2006 harvests
-  Avian influenza concerns may lead to increased U.S. fishery exports

## Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products

**Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products**

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:   Unchanged at $5.9 billion

_***Trade Balance***_
**The FY ‘05 trade deficit in wood products was $17.9 billion.**

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast
*Upside Developments*
-  Mexico’s maquiladoras expected to use more US lumber
-  EU hardwood & softwood market to continue gradual recovery
-  Exports to Caribbean to increase as region rebuilds from hurricanes
*Downside Developments*
-  Softwood lumber continues to face increased competition in Japan
-  Hardwood exports to Malaysia losing market share to wood from Indonesia and China
*Wild Card*
-  Impact of US housing starts