# Presentation: 677614

##  Brian McInerneyHydrologistNational Weather ServiceHydrologic OutlookApril 2006

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Temperature

## March Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 0.1 degrees cooler than average

- March 1983

- 1.0 degrees warmer than average

- March 2006

## April Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 3.3 degrees cooler than average

- April 1983

- 3.3 degrees warmer than average

- April 2006

## May Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 7.25 degrees cooler than average

- May 1983

- May 2006

- 6.7 degrees warmer than average

- ?

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Precipitation

## Precipitation

## Utah and neighboring statesSeasonal Precipitation 2006 Water Year

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Snowpack

## Hydrologic Outlook

## City Creek Snow

## Parleys Creek Snow

## Big Cottonwood Creek Snow

## Little Cottonwood Creek Snow

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Water Supply

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes

- Much Above Normal
- Above Normal
- Normal
- Below Normal
- Much Below Normal

- April 1st 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
- Utah Area River Basins

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- April 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Six Creeks River Basin**

- Jordan River

- Little Cottonwood Creek

- 138%

- Big Cottonwood Creek

- 129%

- Mill Creek

- 129%

- Parleys Creek

- 150%

- Dell Fk.

- 126%

- City Creek

- 178%

- Emigration Ck.

- 122%

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Flood Potential

## Increased Flood Potential

- Cache Valley
- City Creek
- Emigration Creek
- Jordan River

## Hydrologic Outlook

- City Creek Peak Flow Forecast is a result of this year’s snowpack coupled with a past year’s climate
- What if we took today’s snowpack and added on 1983’s climate?
- The NWS Peak flow model would give us the following flow

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1983 Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1984 Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1986 Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1995 Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1997 Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Peak Flow Forecast

## Hydrologic Outlook

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Short Term Forecast

## Hydrologic OutlookShort Term Forecast

- Temperature through April 27th, 2006
- Gradually increasing temps through Sunday with a chance of rainfall
- Cooling through Monday
- Precipitation through April 20th, 2006
- Near normal throughout mid-month

- Click for current weather forecast

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Long Range Forecast

## Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures 

## Forecasted Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures 

## Spring Climate

- Spring climate will dictate runoff scenario
- Soil moisture is near saturation in the north
- This allows a great runoff efficiency
- Cool wet spring will enhance runoff efficiency and heighten flood potential
- Length of melt window is shortened
- More water into streams and reservoirs
- Analogy of a wet sponge
- Warmer drier spring will reduce water volume and lessen flood potential
- Lengthen window of melt
- Earlier melt, means more evaporation, infiltration and sublimation
- Less efficient melt process
- We are running out of time for this scenario

## Forecast UpdatesContact the National Weather Service Forecast Center (Weather Info)

- Forecast Services
- Flood Forecasts, Advisories, Watches, and Warnings
- Weather Forecasts
- Radar, satellite, weather station data
- Observed conditions
- Climate data

- _[http://www.weather.gov/](http://www.weather.gov/)_

- Contact
- Larry Dunn
- Meteorologist in Charge
- 801-524-4377
- Brian McInerney
- Hydrologist
- 801-971-2033

## Forecast UpdatesContact the CBRFC (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center)

- Forecast Services
- Up to the minute forecast updates
- Hourly, daily, and monthly time scales
- Reservoir inflow
- Peak flow forecasts

- _[www.cbrfc.noaa.gov](http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/)_

- Contact
- Michelle Schmidt
- Hydrologist in Charge
- 801-524-5130
- Steve Shumate
- Development and Operational Hydrologist
- 801-524-5130

## Contact Information

- Additional Information
- Contact
- Brian McInerney
- Hydrologist
- National Weather Service
- 801-971-2033 c
- brian.mcinerney@noaa.gov