# Presentation: 141230

## NOAA THORPEX INITIATIVE	Based on contributions from:

- NOAA NWS
- Zoltan Toth
- Naomi Surgi
- NOAA OAR
- Melvyn Shapiro
- Jeff Whitaker

- Outside NOAA
- Craig Bishop 		NRL
- David Carlson		NCAR
- Ron Gelaro		NASA
- Rebecca Morss	NCAR
- John Murray		NASA
- Chris Snyder		NCAR

- Acknowledgements:
- D. Rogers, L. Uccellini, S. Lord, J. Gaynor, W. Seguin

## Historical overview

- 1998	Discussions started with involvement of NOAA 		scientists
- Apr 2000	First International Meeting
- Mar 2002	First Workshop, International Science 			Steering Committee formed
- Aug 2002	NOAA Tiger Team Meeting
- Oct 2002	NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting
- Nov 2002	Draft NOAA THORPEX Initiative

## THORPEX OBJECTIVE

- Accelerate improvements in forecasts for high impact weather
- Maps directly onto first NOAA Strategic Goal:
- “Advance short-term warning and forecast services”
- NOAA THORPEX goals defined by considering existing other programs aimed at:
- Short-range forecast problem: PACJET, IHOP, etc
- Seasonal & climate forecast problem: CLIVAR, GAPP, etc
- No major program aimed at improving medium- and extended-range weather forecasts
- THORPEX fills gap in current research programs

## NOAA THORPEX GOALS

- Accelerate improvements in weather forecasts to facilitate issuance of skillful
- 3-7 day precipitation forecasts
- 8-14 day daily weather forecasts
- Link between weather and climate
- Link with other geo-spheres (ocean)
- Mutual benefits for weather & climate research

## WEATHER FORECASTING FOR DAYS 3-14

- Based on guidance from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models
- Quality tied with that of NWP model forecasts
- Components of NWP forecasting:

- Observing system – 	Collect data
- Data assimilation -	Prepare initial conditions
- Forecast procedures –
- 		Run numerical model
- Societal & economic applictns –
- 		Post-process, add value, apply

## TRADITIONAL FORECAST APPROACH

- Each discipline developed on its own
- Disjoint steps in forecast process
- Little or no feedback
- One-way flow of information
- Uncertainty in process ignored

## STATUS QUO SCENARIO

- As in any learning process, improvements become harder as skill advances
*Maintaining or accelerating rate of improvements not possible with current status quo approach/resources*

- Substantial resources spent on improving NWP
- Forecast skill improves with time

- Is this acceptable when sensitivity/vulnerability of society to 				weather increases?

## THORPEX SOLUTION:

- 	*REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS*
- Invest in major new NWP program =>
- Develop new NWP procedures
- 		Return – 	Pace of forecast improvement 				maintained/accelerated
- Assess costs and societal/economic benefits of new procedures
- Implement operationally most cost effective new methods
- 		Return – 	Enhanced cost effectiveness of 				operational procedures

## NEW NWP PARADIGM - 1

- INTEGRATED NWP
- Sub-systems developed in coordintation
- End-to-end forecast process
- Strong feedback
- Two-way interaction among components
- Error/uncertainty accounted for at each

*Based on better understanding of forecast process*

## REVOLUTIONIZED NWP PROCESS

- 	**INTEGRATED NWP**
- Sub-systems developed in
- End-to-end forecast process
- Strong feedback among components
- Two-way interaction
- Error/uncertainty accounted for

**	****TRADITIONAL NWP **
- Each discipline developed on its own
- Disjoint steps in forecast process
- Little or no feedback
- One-way flow of information
- Uncertainty in process ignored

## NEW NWP PARADIGM - 2

- INTEGRATED
- ADAPTIVE
- Based on more detailed understanding of natural processes
- Allows more differentiated, case dependent methods/procedures
- Exmples
- Observations – Adaptive platform collects data to fill gaps due to clouds
- Data assimilation – Flow dependent forecast error estimates
- Forecasting – Case dependent modeling algorithms –
- 							e. g., hurricane relocation
- Applications – Probabilistic forecast reflects all forecast info => ultimate adaptation of user procedures to weather

## NEW NWP PARADIGM - 3

- CONTROLLED BY USER
- Based on:
- 2-way interactions (improved forecast process)
- Adaptive approach (better understanding of nature)
- Forecast process
- Traditionally driven by FIXED user requirements
- Now responsive to CHANGING user needs
- User needs connected to observational, data assimilation, and forecast systems
- Dynamical analysis of nature & forecast process
- New, NWP model based tools
- Fully interactive forecast process
- Example: 	User identifies critical forecast weather event
- 				Special observational or forecast procedures
- 				Improved targeted forecast

## NEW NWP PARADIGM - 4

- 			      ***Isolated examples exist***
- INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT
- NPOESS instrument/platform design:
- Input from OSSE work (data assimilation/forecasting needs considered)
- ADAPTIVE APPROACH
- GFDL hurricane model runs at NWS when needed
- USER CONTROL – WSR program at NWS
- Threat of winter storm – potential societal impact
- Dynamical calculations
- Targeted observations collected
- Targeted data inserted in analysis/forecast process
- From the EXCEPTION, THORPEX will make interactive, adaptive, & user controlled methods the RULE

## NEED FOR COLLABORATIVE PROGRAM

- Interdisciplinary research
- Different groups/agencies/nations need to collaborate
- Integrated approach to NWP – 4 sub-systems
- Practical goal – Research + Operations
- Challenging program
- Need critical mass of resources
- Intellectual
- Material
- Synergistic activities
- Priorities of other agencies may be different
- Common overarching THORPEX themes
- Complementary efforts
- Leveraging of resources
- Global data and all NWP methods universally needed
*	**INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM HIGHLY DESIRABLE*

## THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW

- Answer science questions
- Advance basic knowledge, directed explicitly toward NWP applications
- Each task must be conceived as part of overall program
- Develop new methods
- Sub-systems
- Academic research
- Cross-cutting
- Academic + operational centers
- Core tasks
- Facilitate other activities
- Strong agency involvement
- Prepare/recommend operational implementation

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES

- Observing system
- Data assimilation
- Forecast procedures
- Applications
- Cross-cutting activities
- Core tasks

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 1

- OBSERVING SYSTEM
- New in-situ and remote instruments/platforms to complement existing network
- Adaptive observing instruments/platforms
- For large data sets
- Super-obing etc prior to OR within data assimil.
- 			*(Joint work with data assimilation)*
- Obs. error estimation (correlated/uncorrelated)

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 2

- Observing system
- DATA ASSIMILATION
- Improve techniques
- Forward models, transfer codes
- Thinning of data
- Treatment of data with correlated errors
- Advanced methods to use case dependent covariance
- 4DVAR research, e.g., continual update of error covariance
- Ensemble based techniques
- Treatment of model errors
- Adaptive observing techniques
- Quick use of targeted data (“pre-emptive” forecasting)
- Methods in the presence of
- Strong non-linearities
- Model error
- Effectiveness of targeted data in analyses/forecasts
- Effect on climatological applications of data

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 3

- Observing system
- Data assimilation
- FORECAST PROCEDURES
- Initial ensemble perturbations *(Joint with data assimilation)*
- Role of non-modal behavior
- Separate model related error from initial value errors
- Systematic vs. random errors
- Atmospheric features most affected
- Critical model features responsible for different errors
- Improve model formulation to reduce errors (Coupling techniques)
- Techniques to account for remaining uncertainty in ensembles
- Adaptive modeling and ensemble techniques

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 4

- Observing system
- Data assimilation
- Forecast procedures
- APPLICATIONS
- Probabilistic forecasting
- Statistical post-processing
- New procedures for intermediate and end users
- Add-on costs of new THORPEX NWP process
- Cost of data from multi-use satellite platforms *(Joint with Observtns.)*
- Incremental societal/economic benefits of new NWP process
- New NWP verification measure
- Societal aspects of new adaptive NWP procedures
- Equitable use of NWP resources

## CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES

*Integrating NWP procedures from four sub-systems *
*Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)*
- Data needs of NWP
- What variables/resolution/accuracy required
- Instrument/platform neutral assessment
- What instruments/platforms can provide data needs
- Existing and new in-situ & remote platforms
- Adaptive component to complement fixed network
- Most cost effective solution
- Relative value of improvements in four sub-systems
- Improvements in which sub-system offer best return?
- Reallocation of resources
- Test of proposed operational configurations
- Major field program if needed
- Cost/benefit analysis - Select most cost effective version

## CORE TASKS

*Needed for efficient research & planned operations*
*Strong agency involvement*
- THORPEX data base (observations, forecasts)
- Information Technology challenge
- High data volume
- Transmission
- Storage of data
- Foster collaboration in critical areas
- Workshops (Societal and economic impacts)
- Joint proposals – Interdisciplinary collaboration
- Critical in past programs like FASTEX
- Test-bed – Pathway from research to operations
- Formal procedure for researchers to follow
- Melting pot for new ideas
- Venue for cross-cutting activities

## COSTS/DELIVERABLES

- Cost: Research program
- Integrated concept – need to fund research in all four areas of NWP
- Deliverables
- New observing, data assimilation, forecasting, & application tools to implement integrated, adaptive, user controlled NWP
- Acceleration in current NWP improvements

-  Societal/economic benefits outweigh operational costs