# Presentation: 666120

## Preliminary Research Results on Respondent Cut-Off Dates for EIA Electricity Data Collections

- Howard Bradsher-Fredrick, _[Howard.Bradsher-Fredrick@eia.doe.gov](mailto:Howard.Bradsher-Fredrick@eia.doe.gov)_ 202-287-1721
- Alethea Jennings, _[Alethea.Jennings@eia.doe.gov](mailto:Alethea.Jennings@eia.doe.gov)_ 202-287-1716
- Statistics and Methods Group
- April 7, 2006
- 	* This is a working document prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in order to solicit advice and comment on statistical matters from the American Statistical Association Committee on Energy Statistics. This topic will be discussed at EIA's spring 2006, meeting with the Committee to be held April 6 and 7, 2006.

**Notes:**
Hello, I’m ---------------------- Today, Alethea Jennings and I are going to talk about our preliminary research work on respondent cut-off dates for EIA electricity data collections.

There's also a disclaimer here saying that this is a work in progress.

## Outline of Presentation

**Introduction**
**EIA-860: *****Annual Electric Generator Report***
**EIA-861: *****Annual Electric Power Industry Report***
**Overall Goal**
**Short Term Objectives**
**Data Submission Profile for the EIA-860**
**Data Submission Profile for the EIA-861**
**Questions for the Committee**

**Notes:**
This is the outline of our presentation.  
First I’ll provide a short introduction.  The analysis focuses on 2 annual electricity surveys -- ..............................
Then I’ll discuss the overall goal and the short-term objectives.
Next I’ll discuss the data submission profile by month of submission, stratified by fuel type.
I’ll also discuss another area I briefly looked at regarding the EIA-860.
Then, Alethea will discuss her analysis on the EIA-861, which involves a data submission profile stratified by end-use sector.
Then, she’ll conclude the discussion of our work and pose questions to the committee.

## Introduction

**Description of the EIA-860**
**Resources Expended on Non-Response Follow-up**
**Research on Data Submission Profiles**
**Other Investigations**

**Notes:**
The EIA-860 (The Annual Electric Generator Report) is an annual census of all existing and planned electric generating facilities with a nameplate capacity greater than 1 MW.  The survey collects information at the generator level on plant design and capabilities but not on actual operations.  

It should also be mentioned that the 860 frame serves as the frame for several other monthly electricity surveys and one annual survey.  It also serves as a mechanism for updating the master frame.

Significant resources are spent on non-response follow-up on this survey.  The due date is April 1st but follow-up continued in 2005 until Sept. 9th.

We thought that the 1st item to be investigated was the issue of when are the forms actually submitted? And how does this submission profile appear in terms of fuel type?

While this work is in its early stages, we also began thinking about what related investigations should be undertaken.  

## Overall Goal

**To determine quantitatively the impact of various alternative policies regarding cutting off the non-response follow-up earlier than is done presently.**

**Notes:**
Thus, our initial overall goal is to quantitatively determine the impact on the data submission profile of various alternative policies cutting off non-response follow-up earlier than is presently done. 

## Short Term Objectives

**To determine the effect on coverage (overall and stratified by fuel) if EIA decided to cut-off the survey response stream on the EIA-860 on a variety of different dates.**
**To determine the effect on coverage of large producers/consumers on the EIA-861 by using a variety of cut-off dates.**
**To determine whether or not earlier respondents submitting data require less follow-up than later respondents.**

**Notes:**
These are our short-term objectives.  The 1st 2 objectives are in blue; these are the objectives we’ve done work on and we’re now presenting.  

Read 2 objectives.

The 3rd objective is..................................
This issue of the quality of data of earlier versus later respondents was one I began to try to investigate, but I don’t yet have any results.

## EIA-860 Submission Profile All Fuels

| Submission Date | Gen. Cnt | % | Cum % | Capacity (MW) | % | Cum % | AvCap (MW) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| < May 1 |  8,374 |  57.0% | 57.0% |   650,937 | 64.7% | 64.7% |   77.7 |
| May 1 - 31 |  3,084 |  21.0% | 78.1% |   210,047 | 20.9% | 85.6% |   68.1 |
| Jun 1 – 30 |  1,752 |  11.9% | 90.0% |     95,688 | 9.5% | 95.1% |   54.6 |
| July 1 – 31 |    803 |   5.5% | 95.5% |     28,182 | 2.8% | 97.9% |   35.1 |
| Aug 1 – 31 |    398 |   2.7% | 98.2% |     18,380 | 1.8% | 99.7% |   46.2 |
| Sep 1 – 9 |      25 |   0.2% | 98.3% |          197 | 0.0% | 99.8% |     7.9 |
| Non-resp |    244 |   1.7% | 100% |       2,161 | 0.2% | 100% |     8.9 |
| Total | 14,680 |  |  | 1,005,592 |  |  |   68.5 |

**Notes:**
This table shows the submission profile for all fuels, operating status only.  These are the 2004 data as submitted in 2005.  The due date on the form is specified as April 1, 2005.

## EIA-860 Submission Profile Non-Hydro Renewables

| Submission Date | Cnt | % | Cum % | Capacity (MW) | % | Cum % | AvCap (MW) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| < May 1 |   712 | 52.5% | 52.5% |   10,623 | 60.2% | 60.2% |   14.9 |
| May 1 – 31 |   246 | 18.1% | 70.6% |     2,310 | 13.1% | 73.3% |     9.4 |
| June 1 – 30 |   267 | 19.7% | 90.3% |     3,138 | 17.8% | 91.0% |   11.8 |
| July 1 – 31 |    64 |   4.7% | 95.1% |        602 |   3.4% | 94.4% |     9.4 |
| Aug 1 – 31 |    34 |   2.5% | 97.6% |        572 |   3.2% | 97.7% |   16.8 |
| Sep 1 – 9 |      2 |   0.1% | 97.7% |          98 |   0.6% | 98.2% |   49.0 |
| Non-resp |    31 |   2.3% | 100% |        310 |   1.8% | 100% |   10.0 |
| Total | 1,356 |  |  |   17,653 |  |  |   13.0 |

**Notes:**
Now I’m going to show some tables for specific fuels or groups of fuels.  The 1st one is non-hydro renewables. This was thought to be an area where EIA would want to be sure to have sufficient coverage.

## EIA-860 Submission Profile Natural Gas

| Submission Date | Cnt | % | Cum % | Capacity (MW) | % | Cum % | AvCap (MW) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| < May 1 |  2,960 | 63.0% |   63.0% |   255,081 | 65.4% | 65.4% |   86.2 |
| May 1 – 31 |     875 | 18.6% |   81.7% |    71,239 | 18.3% | 83.4% |   81.4 |
| June 1 – 30 |     538 | 11.5% |   93.1% |    48,534 | 12.4% | 96.1% |   90.2 |
| July 1 – 31 |     207 |   4.4% |   97.5% |    12,268 |   3.1% | 99.3% |   59.3 |
| Aug 1 – 31 |       64 |   1.4% |   98.9% |      1,555 |   0.4% | 99.7% |   24.3 |
| Sep 1 – 9 |         3 |   0.1% |   99.0% |             4 |   0.0% | 99.7% |     1.3 |
| Non-resp |       49 |   1.0% |   100% |      1,230 |   0.3% | 100% |   25.1 |
| Total |  4,696 |  |  |   389,911 |  |  |   83.0 |

## EIA-860 Submission Profile Coal

| Submission Date | Cnt | % | Cum % | Capacity (MW) | % | Cum % | AvCap (MW) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| < May 1 |    948 | 69.7% |  69.7% |   230,328 | 74.3% |  74.3% |   243.0 |
| May 1 – 31 |    270 | 19.9% |  89.6% |     55,664 | 18.0% |  92.3% |   206.2 |
| June 1 – 30 |     99 |   7.3% |  96.8% |     17,026 |   5.5% |  97.8% |   172.0 |
| July 1 – 31 |     33 |   2.4% |  99.3% |       6,233 |   2.0% |  99.8% |   188.9 |
| Aug 1 – 31 |      6 |   0.4% |  99.7% |         648 |   0.2% |  100% |   108.0 |
| Sep 1 – 9 |      0 |   0.0% |  99.7% |             0 | 0.0% |  100% |          0 |
| Non-resp |      4 |   0.3% |   100% |           73 | 0.0% |  100% |     18.3 |
| Total |  1,360 |  |  |  309,972 |  |  |   227.9 |

## EIA-861 Submission ProfileTotal Electricity Sales

| Submission Date | Respondent Count | % | Cum % | Sales (MWH) | % Sales | Cum % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| <May 1 | 1,878 | 57.2% | 57.2% | 2,378,341,998 | 66.8% | 66.8% |
| May 1-31 | 682 | 20.8% | 78.0% | 770,457,115 | 21.6% | 88.5% |
| Jun 1-31 | 278 | 8.5% | 86.5% | 312,228,236 | 8.8% | 97.2% |
| Jul 1-31 | 228 | 6.9% | 93.4% | 76,749,557 | 2.2% | 99.4% |
| Aug 1-31 | 95 | 2.9% | 96.3% | 18,557,078 | 0.5% | 99.9% |
| After Sep 1 | 45 | 1.4% | 97.7% | 3,397,742 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| Undated | 5 | 0.2% | 97.9% | 27,085 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Non-respns | 71 | 2.2% | 100.0% |  |  |  |
| Total | 3,282 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 3,559,758,811 | 100.0% | 100.0% |

**Notes:**
The EIA-861 survey, the Annual Electric Power Industry Report, collects information from electric power industry participants that are involved in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity.  The 861 also serves as the frame for monthly survey, the 826,  which is a cut-off sample from the 861.   So this is also a very important frame.

The data referenced here are for the year 2004, the same reporting period as the data for the 860, which you saw earlier. Data submissions were received by EIA from January through December of 2005.

The tables that Howard showed you displayed the 860 data submission profiles stratified by month of submission and fuel type.  The 861 data submission profiles that we’ll look at now are stratified by month of submission and end-use sector.

For the remaining tables that you will see, notice the first four columns of data will be exactly the same, as they relate to respondent counts and percentages (both cumulative and by submission date).  The total of the second column indicates that the survey currently has about 3300 active units.  You will notice as we look at these tables that the reporting pattern is quite similar to that of the 860.

This table shows Total Electricity Sales for all sectors combined.   Column 7 shows the cumulative % of total sales volume.  Notice that by May 31, approx. 89% of the total sales volume had been reported.  By June 31,  the cumulative total was 97%.

## EIA-861 Submission ProfileResidential Electricity Sales

| Submission Date | Respondent Count | % | Cum % | Sales (MWH) | % Sales | Cum % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| <May 1 | 1,878 | 57.2% | 57.2% | 857,300,144 | 65.9% | 65.9% |
| May 1-31 | 682 | 20.8% | 78.0% | 284,240,228 | 21.9% | 87.8% |
| Jun 1-31 | 278 | 8.5% | 86.5% | 125,152,879 | 9.6% | 97.4% |
| Jul 1-31 | 228 | 6.9% | 93.4% | 24,589,214 | 1.9% | 99.3% |
| Aug 1-31 | 95 | 2.9% | 96.3% | 7,658,615 | 0.6% | 99.9% |
| After Sep 1 | 45 | 1.4% | 97.7% | 1,470,484 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| Undated | 5 | 0.2% | 97.9% | 16,660 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Non-respns | 71 | 2.2% | 100.0% |  |  |  |
| Total | 3,282 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1,300,428,224 | 100.0% | 100.0% |

**EIA-861 Submission Profile****Residential Electricity Sales**

**Notes:**
The remaining tables show data for the individual sectors.

For the Residential sector, approx. 89% of the total sales volume had been reported by May 31.  97% of the volume was reported by June 31. 

## EIA-861 Submission Profile Commercial Electricity Sales

| Submission Date | Respondent Count | % | Cum % | Sales (MWH) | % Sales | Cum % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| <May 1 | 1,878 | 57.2% | 57.2% | 831,479,097 | 67.3% | 67.3% |
| May 1-31 | 682 | 20.8% | 78.0% | 262,730,171 | 21.3% | 88.5% |
| Jun 1-31 | 278 | 8.5% | 86.5% | 110,920,440 | 9.0% | 97.5% |
| Jul 1-31 | 228 | 6.9% | 93.4% | 23,003,764 | 1.9% | 99.4% |
| Aug 1-31 | 95 | 2.9% | 96.3% | 6,390,748 | 0.5% | 99.9% |
| After Sep 1 | 45 | 1.4% | 97.7% | 1,546,768 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| Undated | 5 | 0.2% | 97.9% | 10,425 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Non-respns | 71 | 2.2% | 100.0% |  |  |  |
| Total | 3,282 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1,236,081,413 | 100.0% | 100.0% |

**EIA-861 Submission Profile**** Commercial Electricity Sales**

**Notes:**
For the Commercial sector, approx. 89% of the total sales volume had been reported by May 31.  98% of the volume was reported by June 31.

## EIA-861 Submission ProfileIndustrial Electricity Sales

| Submission Date | Respondent Count | % | Cum % | Sales (MWH) | % Sales | Cum % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| <May 1 | 1,878 | 57.2% | 57.2% | 684,396,743 | 67.3% | 67.3% |
| May 1-31 | 682 | 20.8% | 78.0% | 222,656,266 | 21.9% | 89.3% |
| Jun 1-31 | 278 | 8.5% | 86.5% | 75,114,248 | 7.4% | 96.7% |
| Jul 1-31 | 228 | 6.9% | 93.4% | 29,129,298 | 2.9% | 99.5% |
| Aug 1-31 | 95 | 2.9% | 96.3% | 4,507,715 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| After Sep 1 | 45 | 1.4% | 97.7% | 380,490 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Undated | 5 | 0.2% | 97.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Non-respns | 71 | 2.2% | 100.0% |  |  |  |
| Total | 3,282 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1,016,184,760 | 100.0% | 100.0% |

**EIA-861 Submission Profile****Industrial Electricity Sales**

**Notes:**

Finally, for the Industrial sector, approx. 89% of the total sales volume had been reported by May 31.   97% of the volume was reported by June 31.

So, within each sector,  about 97% of the volume has been reported prior to July 1.

Data submission profiles for the 860 showed a similar pattern, with an overall 95% of the cumulative volume of generation being reported prior to July 1.

In thinking about other related areas of investigation, we recognize that it’s possible to analyze movement of utilities from being ranked as one of the largest providers of electricity to becoming a lower ranked provider.  We could certainly investigate this if its determined to be a worthwhile effort.

## Questions for the Committee

**Would it make sense to utilize a cut-off date (e.g., June 30) to limit the number of non-response follow-ups?**
**This would enable more timely data dissemination.  **
**Bias potentially a problem & could affect other surveys.**
**What other background analyses would the committee recommend in order to further illuminate pertinent issues?**