# Presentation: 487595

## June 22, 2004

**NOAA’s NWS Volcanic Ash Program:  Current Status and Plans for the Future**

**Chris Strager****NWS Alaska Region HQ**

## OVERVIEW 

- BACKGROUND
- THE PROGRAM TODAY
- FUTURE CHALLENGES

## “Those that fail to learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.”

Sir Winston Churchill

- Sir Winston Churchill

## BACKGROUND

- “Roots” of NWS Volcanic Ash Program traced back to 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens

-  Ash plume reached 90,000 feet in 30 minutes
-  Circled the globe in two weeks
-  Over 1,000 commercial flights cancelled

## Other significant volcanic eruptions helped shape global volcanic ash program:

- Galunggung Volcano, Indonesia (1982)
- Two 747-200 passenger jets heavily damaged
- Result:  ICAO’s International Airways Volcano Watch
- Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines (1991)
- Airports covered with up to 6 inches of ash
- 20 commercial jets damaged

## Meanwhile, in Alaska...

-  Mt. Redoubt (1989-90)
- KLM 747-400 incident; over $80M in damages

- Mt. Spurr (1992)
- Ashfall in Anchorage closed airport for several days
- Ash cloud disrupted operations across AK, Canada, US

## That was nature’s sequence of volcanic ash events...what about the NWS?

- 1995: NWS Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU) formed
- 1997: ICAO established nine worldwide Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs)
- Anchorage AK (managed by AAWU)
- Washington DC (joint effort between NESDIS/NWS)
- 1998: Responsibility for managing NWS Volcanic Ash Program transferred to NWS Alaska Region.
- Operational knowledge
- Developed successful coordination with other agencies

## NWS VOLCANIC ASH PROGRAM STRUCTURE - TODAY

- Program Management:  NWS Alaska Region
- 2 VAACs:  Anchorage and Washington (joint effort with NESDIS)
- 4 MWOs:  AAWU, Aviation Weather Center, Honolulu and Guam WFOs
- Issue Volcanic Ash SIGMETs
- Anchorage Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU)
- Works with FAA’s Air Route Traffic Control Center

## Anchorage FIR2.4 million sq miles/5.18 sq kms

**Anchorage FIR****2.4 million sq miles/5.18 sq kms**

**A few words about the CWSU...**

## ZAN CWSU support to major jet routes across the Pacific

## Meteorological Impact Statement (MIS)

- CWSU provides first information to controllers immediately following eruption detection

- Work   closely with Anchorage VAAC and Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO)

## NWS VOLCANIC ASH PROGRAM CHARTER 

- Original goals of NWS Volcanic Ash Program listed in Nov 1995 Volcano Management Plan, drafted by the NWS’ Alaska Region HQ:
- Continue to build effective “operations-based” program
- Coordination with other NOAA/NWS offices
- Coordination with other national agencies
- Establish international volcano program agreements
- Continue research and training efforts

##  FUTURE CHALLENGES

- Aggressively pursue upgrades in remote sensing capabilities for NOAA/NWS VAACs, MWOs, CWSU
- Present system relies on single-channel data
- Significant improvements coming in near future
- Multi-channel/hyper-spectral sensors
- “Orders of magnitude” of more data
- Requires downlink system to capture (and process) these large data sets
- View new data on NWS operational workstations

##  FUTURE CHALLENGES

- “5-minute requirement”
- 5 minutes from detection to warning
- Stated by customer...must strive to meet this
- Modernize text products to graphics
- “Weather in Cockpit”
- Graphical VA SIGMETs, advisories
- Work closely with international community to ensure these formats work for all

##  FUTURE CHALLENGES (cont)

- “International Consistency”
- Stay current with research, operational procedures
- Break down language barriers between VAACs
- Training (both NWS and external customers)
- Volcanic ash forecasting still relatively new
- Operational forecasters must stay current with new monitoring, forecasting techniques

##  FUTURE CHALLENGES (cont)

- Transform current research into operational forecasting tools/techniques
- Continued collaboration with Federal, private, international partners

## PARTNERS (partial listing!)

- Within NOAA:
- NESDIS (Washington VAAC, remote sensing)
- Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL)
- Volcanic Ash Coordination Tool (VACT)
- Air Research Laboratory (Modeling)
- Aviation Weather Center (Graphics)
- US Geological Survey/AVO
- Close operational relationship with VAAC and CWSU
- Partners in VACT development
- FAA/ICAO
- Other worldwide VAACs
- Aviation Customers

## NOAA’s NWS Volcanic Ash Program:  Current Status and Plans for the Future

** *****Questions?***