# Presentation: 530445

## Program Overview:The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS )Mark D. BrusbergUSDA/Office of Chief Economist/ World Agricultural Outlook Board

- Presented to the
- First Climate Prediction Program for the Americas
-  Principal Investigator’s Meeting
**August 14, 2006**

## Timeline of Climate and Agriculture: 1870-1999

***Background***

- Weather forecasting, issue storm warnings, display weather and flood signals for the benefit of agriculture, commerce and navigation.
- Temperature and rainfall reports for cotton interests, frost and cold wave signals.
- Distribution of meteorological information for agriculture and commerce.
- Record the climatic conditions of the U.S.
- Numerous research products / publications.

**1890   Weather Service transferred to USDA**

**From “Climate Services: A USDA Perspective (14****th**** Applied Climatology Conference; Pasteris, et.al, 2004)”**

## Timeline of Climate and Agriculture: 1870-1999

***Background***

**1890   ****Weather Service transferred to USDA**

**1940   Weather Service transferred to Dept. of Commerce**

- (“... (to permit) better coordination of Government activities relating to aviation and to commerce generally, **without in any way lessening the Bureau's contribution to agriculture**)”.

**From “Climate Services: A USDA Perspective (14****th**** Applied Climatology Conference; Pasteris, et.al, 2004)”**

## Timeline of Climate and Agriculture: 1870-1999

***Background***

**1890   ****Weather Service transferred to USDA**

**1940   ****Weather Service transferred to Dept. of Commerce**

**1971   "Federal Plan for a National Ag Weather Service (NOAA)“ **

- Plan summarized user requirements and potential service value, the present NOAA Agricultural Weather Service Program, and NOAA's Plan for an Improved Agricultural Weather Program
- Cooperation between the National Weather Service, Environmental Data Service, State Universities, State Climatologists, and the Department of Agriculture
**Plan not implemented**

**From “Climate Services: A USDA Perspective (14****th**** Applied Climatology Conference; Pasteris, et.al, 2004)”**

## Timeline of Climate and Agriculture: 1870-1999

***Background***

**1890   ****Weather Service transferred to USDA**

**1940   ****Weather Service transferred to Dept. of Commerce**

**1971   ****"Federal Plan for a National Ag Weather Service (NOAA)“ **

**   “****Agricultural Weather Information is not Effectively**
**            ****Communicated to Users (GAO)“ **

**Conclusions**:
- Agricultural weather information is not being communicated to users and potential users
- The need for certain improvements in the program has been noted by Departments of Agriculture and Commerce
- As a result, the Departments have reached some agreements to improve cooperation; **however, much more remains to be done**

**From “Climate Services: A USDA Perspective (14****th**** Applied Climatology Conference; Pasteris, et.al, 2004)”**

## Timeline of Climate and Agriculture: 1870-1999

***Background***

**1890   ****Weather Service transferred to USDA**

**1940   ****Weather Service transferred to Dept. of Commerce**

**1971   ****"Federal Plan for a National Ag Weather Service (NOAA)“ **

**   “****Agricultural Weather Information is not Effectively**
**            ****Communicated to Users (GAO)“ **

**Recommendations**:
- "DOC, in cooperation with the Secretary of Agriculture, clarify and strengthen the roles of your Departments in Agricultural Weather Service Program
**Improving the methods for publicizing and communicating weather information to users and potential users**
- Providing program coordination by updating the 1971  "Federal Plan for a National Agricultural Weather Service"

**From “Climate Services: A USDA Perspective (14****th**** Applied Climatology Conference; Pasteris, et.al, 2004)”**

## Timeline of Climate and Agriculture: 1870-1999

***Background***

**1890   ****Weather Service transferred to USDA**

**1940   ****Weather Service transferred to Dept. of Commerce**

**1971   ****"Federal Plan for a National Ag Weather Service (NOAA)“ **

**   ****“****Agricultural Weather Information is not Effectively**
**            ****Communicated to Users (GAO)“**** **

-      **Letter to NWS Ag Weather Services Customers states**:
-     “*The NWS will make every effort to maintain agricultural weather observation networks in the months ahead.  The inventory of NWS weather observing equipment will be examined closely to determine what data sources will remain available for use by private meteorologists.  The NWS will continue observations and records pertaining to recording and predicting the nation's climate and for other programs such as public forecasts and warnings.  The basic data critical to making agricultural forecasts such as freeze and frost warnings is still available to all users.*”

**1996   NWS Ag Weather Program Terminated**

**From “Climate Services: A USDA Perspective (14****th**** Applied Climatology Conference; Pasteris, et.al, 2004)”**

## Timeline of Climate and Agriculture: 1870-1999

***Background***

**1890   ****Weather Service transferred to USDA**

**1940   ****Weather Service transferred to Dept. of Commerce**

**1971   ****"Federal Plan for a National Ag Weather Service (NOAA)“ **

**   ****“****Agricultural Weather Information is not Effectively**
**            ****Communicated to Users (GAO)“**** **

**1996   ****NWS Ag Weather Program Terminated**

- DOC requested the USDA to prepare a report of requirements for weather and climate data, services, and information.
- Nine USDA agencies contributed to a report titled "Operational Meteorological Data Requirements”
- The report outlined the need for:
- Current Measurement and Observational Data and Services
- Climate Services
- Forecasting Services
- Other Services

**1999   USDA Operational Meteorological Data Requirements **

**From “Climate Services: A USDA Perspective (14****th**** Applied Climatology Conference; Pasteris, et.al, 2004)”**

## Current Measurement and Observational Data and Services:
These services consist of the operation of acquisition programs, observing systems, data collection and quality control, and networks to provide the data essential to defining the state of the atmosphere and its impacts on man and his activities
They are largely concerned with assembling weather observations into useable databases and providing them for use in analyses and applications

**From “Climate Services: A USDA Perspective (14****th**** Applied Climatology Conference; Pasteris, et.al, 2004)”**

**Current Measurement and Observational Data and Services**:
- These services consist of the operation of acquisition programs, observing systems, data collection and quality control, and networks to provide the data essential to defining the state of the atmosphere and its impacts on man and his activities
- They are largely concerned with assembling weather observations into useable databases and providing them for use in analyses and applications

**Climate Services**:
- Provide for the acquisition, storage, management, and summarization of historical weather data
- Analyses of climatological data to characterize climate conditions or regimes for different geographical areas or time periods.
- Development of normals, freeze probabilities, and drought indices

**USDA Operational Meteorological Data Requirements**

***Background***

## Forecasting Services:
Prediction of future weather events or climatic conditions and their associated probabilities

**From “Climate Services: A USDA Perspective (14****th**** Applied Climatology Conference; Pasteris, et.al, 2004)”**

**Forecasting Services**:
- Prediction of future weather events or climatic conditions and their associated probabilities

**Other Services**:
- Consultation, analyses of particular weather events, interpretation of forecast materials, monitoring and summarizing recent weather events, weather briefings and summaries, special studies and analyses, and user education

**USDA Operational Meteorological Data Requirements**

***Background***

## Why NIDIS?

**Why NIDIS?**

**Why be specific to drought?**

***The Need for NIDIS***

## The Need for NIDIS

***The Need for NIDIS***

## The Need for NIDIS

***The Need for NIDIS***

## The Need for NIDIS

***The Need for NIDIS***

## The Need for NIDIS

***The Need for NIDIS***

## The Need for NIDIS

***The Need for NIDIS***

## In response to the devastating drought in the Southwest in 1996, the governors of the Western states adopted the Drought Response Action Plan in November 1996. The report included a number of recommendations to improve federal and state responses to droughts, and emphasized the need for incorporating mitigation and preparedness measures in governmental drought programs. 

- In response to the devastating drought in the Southwest in 1996, the governors of the Western states adopted the **Drought Response Action Plan** in November 1996. The report included a number of recommendations to improve federal and state responses to droughts, and **emphasized the need for incorporating mitigation and preparedness** measures in governmental drought programs.

- One key recommendation in the report called for the development of "a national drought policy or framework that integrates actions and responsibilities among all levels of government (federal state, regional and local)." With the strong support of the Western Governors, Congress developed this recommendation into the **National Drought Policy Act of 1998**, PL 105-199, which President Clinton signed into law on July 16, 1998.

**http://www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/wgatext1.pdf**

***The Development of NIDIS***

## 	In May, 2000, the National Drought Policy Commission (created by the Drought Policy Act) released its final report, Preparing for Drought in the 21st Century.

**http://www.fsa.usda.gov/drought/finalreport/fullreport/pdf/reportfull.pdf**

***The Development of NIDIS***

## The Development of NIDIS

**2**)	**Improve collaboration among scientists and managers to enhance the effectiveness of observation networks, monitoring, prediction, information delivery, and applied research and to foster public understanding of and preparedness for drought**;
- 3)	Develop and incorporate comprehensive insurance and financial strategies into drought preparedness plans;
- 4) 	Maintain a safety net of emergency relief that emphasizes sound stewardship of natural resources and self-help; and
- 5) 	Coordinate drought programs and response effectively, efficiently, and in a customer-oriented manner.

- Congress should pass a **National Drought Preparedness Act** to establish a nonfederal/federal partnership through a **National Drought Council (NDC)**.
- The primary function of the NDC is to ensure that the goals of national drought policy are achieved:

***The Development of NIDIS***

## 	
	In June, 2004, the Western Governors’ Association released its report, Creating a Drought Early Warning System for the 21st Century; The National Integrated Drought Information System.

- 	In June, 2004, the Western Governors’ Association released its report, *Creating a Drought Early Warning System for the 21**st** Century; The National Integrated Drought Information System*.

**http://www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/nidis.pdf**

***The Development of NIDIS***

## NIDIS Vision:

**NIDIS Vision:**
*“**A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.”*

**Western Governors’ Association (June 2004)**

***The Development of NIDIS***

## NIDIS Goals:

- Develop the leadership and partnerships to ensure successful implementation of an integrated national drought _monitoring_ and _forecasting_ system;
- Foster, and support, a research environment that focuses on impact _mitigation_ and improved predictive capabilities;

**NIDIS Goals:**
- NIDIS is intended to accomplish the following:

**Western Governors’ Association (June 2004)**

***The Development of NIDIS***

## NIDIS Goals:

- Create a drought “_early warning system_” capable of providing accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to _facilitate proactive decisions_ aimed at minimizing the economic, social, and ecosystem losses associated with drought;

**NIDIS Goals:**
- NIDIS is intended to accomplish the following:

**Western Governors’ Association (June 2004)**

***The Development of NIDIS***

## NIDIS Goals:

- Provide interactive delivery systems, including an _Internet portal_, of easily comprehensible and standardized products (databases, forecasts, GIS-based products, maps, etc.); and
- Provide a framework for interacting with and educating those affected by drought on _how and why droughts occur_, and how they impact human and natural systems.

**NIDIS Goals:**
- NIDIS is intended to accomplish the following:

**Western Governors’ Association (June 2004)**

***The Development of NIDIS***

## Support from Administration

**Support from Administration**

**http://www.sdr.gov/SDRGrandChallengesforDisasterReduction.pdf**

- 	In June, 2005, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released “Grand Challenges for Disaster Reduction”, designed to
-     *“**... (provide) a framework for prioritizing the related Federal investments in science and technology.”*
-     Drought is one of the profiled hazards.

***Support for NIDIS***

## Support from Administration

**Support from Administration**

**http://usgeo.gov/**

- 	**NIDIS is one of 6 near-term opportunities for IEOS / GEOSS**.
- 	*“**The National Integrated Drought Information System represents a comprehensive, user-friendly, web accessible system to serve the needs of policy and decision-makers at all levels—local, state, regional, and national—concerned with U.S. drought preparedness, mitigation, and relief/ recovery.”*

***Support for NIDIS***

##     Coming soon:
    U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS)
    The National Integrated Drought Information System Draft Integration Framework.

-     U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS)
*    **The National Integrated Drought Information System Draft Integration Framework*.

***Support for NIDIS***

**Support from Administration**

## 	In 2004 and 2005, legislation was introduced to establish a National Drought Council in the USDA.  One of the provisions called for the development of a “National Integrated Drought Information System.”

- 	In 2004 and 2005, legislation was introduced to establish a National Drought Council in the USDA.  One of the provisions called for the development of a “National Integrated Drought Information System.”
- 	Neither bill passed.

***Support for NIDIS***

**Legislative Support**

## 	In 2006, legislation was introduced to establish a National Integrated Drought Information System in NOAA.

- 	In 2006, legislation was introduced to establish a National Integrated Drought Information System in **NOAA**.
- 	This bill is current and shows promise of passage.

***Support for NIDIS***

**Legislative Support**

## Support for NIDIS

***Support for NIDIS***

**NOAA Programs Supporting NIDIS**

**   ****NOAA Climate Services**** **
- Contributions from all NOAA Line Offices, Joint Institutes, Regional Integrated Science Assessments, Regional Climate Centers, State Climatologists
**    ****NOAA Operational Monitoring and Outlooks**** **
*Weekly Drought Monitor *and* Monthly Drought Outlook*
**    ****NOAA Research**** **
- Applied climate research to understand and predict drought onset, duration, and impacts
**   ****NOAA COOP Modernization**
- Implementation of a National Mesonet will provide near real time climate, weather, and water observations for resource and emergency management

## Recommendations from the User Community

***Recommendations from the User Community***

- In 2006, NOAA sponsored several workshops that fostered user input on NIDIS activities and agency interactions.
- Several recommendations were made (and later refined) for the successful implementation of NIDIS.
- A final decision on those recommendations is expected after the next meeting (Sep 21-22 in Longmont, CO –
- open to all).
- Some recurring observations included .........

## Recommendations from the User Community

***Recommendations from the User Community***

**A high level coordination committee (comprised of stakeholders) should regularly meet with NOAA; several levels of participants may be needed.**

## Recommendations from the User Community

***Recommendations from the User Community***

**A high level coordination committee (comprised of stakeholders) should regularly meet with NOAA; several levels of participants may be needed.**

- Representatives of NIDIS partners
- Mix of fed and non-fed stakeholder reps
- NGA
- Academia ....RISA/AASC/RCC
- NGOS
**Native American Tribal Governments**
- Vision to guide applied research program
- “Big thinkers”
- Mix of disciplines
- Physical, Biological and Social scientists
- 		e.g. Designing and implementing water markets

## Recommendations from the User Community

**Utilize existing infrastructure (“don’t reinvent the wheel):**

***Recommendations from the User Community***

**UCAN (Unified Climate Access Network)** - a method for information dissemination
**ACIS (Applied Climate Information System)** – next phase of UCAN
**The Regional Climate Centers (RCCs)** - partners (along with state climatologists) in UCAN system
**National Climate Data Center (NCDC)** - official archival of NWS weather data (can also ingest other data sources)
**National Drought Mitigation Center** - recognized leader in providing drought assessments and related information

## Recommendations from the User Community

***Recommendations from the User Community***

**Unique and necessary instrumentation (soil moisture, etc.)**
- Maintenance and sensor calibration
**Paleoclimate data is require**
- Tree ring, ice core, etc necessary to develop profile of long-term climate trends
**Metadata must be documented and readily accessible by the user**
**A ****dynamic data inventory**** must be maintained**

**Various types of data should be maintained and freely made available to the research community:**

## Recommendations from the User Community

**Support policy and program-level decisions (examples)**
- Authorize emergency haying or grazing of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acreage throughout the country
- “*A county must have suffered at least a **40 percent loss of normal moisture** for the preceding four-month qualifying period*”
- Plan for potential shortfalls in crop production due to episodic weather events (freezes, droughts, floods, etc.)
**Support operational decisions at the farm level**
- When to plant, spray, fertilize, irrigate, etc.

**The Drought Portal should be user friendly at all levels.**

***Recommendations from the User Community***

## Recommendations from the User Community

**Identify “what works, what doesn’t” and “what do we have, what do we need”**

***Recommendations from the User Community***

## Recommendations from the User Community

**Start with at least one multi-state “experiment”.**

***Recommendations from the User Community***

## Recommendations from the Research Community

**Cooperate through a Research Coordinating Committee**

***Recommendations from the Research Community***

- NOAA

- NASA

- USGS

- USDA

- Research
- Coordinating
- Committee

- Stakeholder Workgroups

- Set drought research priorities
- Review/Comment

- Private

- State

- University

- Internal agency planning

- Agency RFPs

- Integrated RFPs

- NSF

- Leadership Team

## Recommendations from the Research Community

**Cooperate through a Research Coordinating Committee**

***Recommendations from the Research Community***

**Committee functions would include:**
- Conduct gap analyses...Identify gaps in research and information needs
- Prioritize needs
- Integrate research between agencies..avoid duplication
- Suggest RFP priorities
- Interact with facilitation committee to assure data needs and outreach goals are addressed
- Identify sectors and organize stakeholder workshop in cooperation with facilitation committee

## NIDIS Implementation

***NIDIS Implementation***

**Implement planning to date:**

**   ****Already established:**
- NOAA NIDIS Coordinator Position filled
- Development of a draft implementation plan
- Core working group of stakeholders assembled
**   ****Underway:**
- Integration teams being assembled (across Federal, State and other partners)
- Drought Portal under development

## D R A F T

***NIDIS Implementation***

**Drought Portal under development.**

- _[www.drought.gov](http://www.drought.gov/)__ ?_

## NIDIS Implementation

***NIDIS Implementation***

**Implement planning to date:**

**   ****Still Needed:**
- Criteria for socio-economic baselines
- Mechanisms for assessing and reporting impacts
- Clear definition of goals (ex. What does “early warning” mean?)
- Commitments for long-term cooperation
-  **Questions Remain for Pilot Experiments / Projects:**
- 	- RFPs?
- 	- User defined criterion for success?
- 	- Multiple projects in climatically different areas?

## NIDIS Implementation – Looking at the “Big Picture”

***NIDIS Implementation – Looking at the “Big Picture”***

**Can NIDIS be a template for a National Climate Program?**

## Keys to NIDIS Success

***Keys to NIDIS Success***

**Maintaining interagency cooperation**

## Keys to NIDIS Success

**Development of comprehensive drought history profiles**

***Keys to NIDIS Success***

## Keys to NIDIS Success

**Development of drought impact scenario analyses**

***Keys to NIDIS Success***

## Kingsley Dam at Lake McConaughy (© Ken Dewey, HPRCC)

**Kingsley Dam at Lake McConaughy (© Ken Dewey, HPRCC)**

## Lost town of Lemoyne (© Ken Dewey, HPRCC)

**Lost town of Lemoyne (© Ken Dewey, HPRCC)**