# Presentation: 591679

## Numerical Modeling:Where We Are andWhere We’re Going

- Geoff DiMego
- geoff.dimego@noaa.gov
- 301-763-8000 ext7221
- 11 January 2007

**N**
**C**
**E**
**P**

**Where the Nation’s climate and weather services begin**

## T O P I C S

- Mission and Role of Model Guidance
- NCEP Operational Production Suite
- Sources of Model Uncertainty
- Recent Changes in NCEP Modeling Systems and Plans
- Model Data Products and Access
- Future Directions

## Seamless Weather/Climate Forecast Suite

_**Seamless Weather/Climate Forecast Suite**_

**EMC provides the numerical model **_**guidance**_** upon which the **_***forecasts***_** are based.**

## Why Models?“As go the models, so go the forecasts”

**Why Models?**_**“As go the models, so go the forecasts”**_

**Correlations**
**Of HPC with:**
**Eta: 0.99**
**GFS: 0.74**
**NGM: 0.85**

## 2006-2009 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies

## NCEP Operations:A Few Words About The Computers

- NCEP’s New Central Computer System
- 2496 processors per machine
- IBM’s 5th Generation Power+ Series
- 1.9 GHz clock speed
- 156 IBM pSeries 575 Nodes
- 16 physical (32 logical) cpu per node
- 32 Gbytes of Memory per node
- 2 links per node to high performance switch
- Two machines - 18 TFlops peak each
- Increasing to 2 x 54 TFlops ~late 2009

## The Jigsaw Puzzle NCEP Production Suite 

**RUC**

**GFS Anl**

**Hur/HRW**

**GFS Fcst**

**NAM Fcst**

**NAM Anl**

**Waves**

**SREF**

**GENS**

## Limitations of Numerical Forecast Systems

- Sources of Model Uncertainty Are Identical to the Ingredients We Are Working on Constantly to Improve Our Numerical Forecast Systems
**Initial conditions**
**Resolution **
**Prediction Model**

## The Environmental Forecast Process

- Observations

- Analysis

- Model Forecast

- Post-processed Model Data

- Forecaster

- User (public, industry...)

- Numerical
- Forecast
- System

- Data
- Assimilation

## NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA)

**Mission**
**Accelerate and improve**** the quantitative use of ****research and operational**** satellite data in ****weather and climate**** prediction models**
**Current generation data**
**Prepare for next-generation (NPOESS, METOP, research) instruments**
**Supports applied research**
**Partners in NOAA, NASA, DOD**
**University, Government and Commercial Labs**

## Assimilation of Satellite Radiances Now Has Larger Impact on Accuracy of Model Guidance Than Assimilation of Radiosonde+ Observations

_**Assimilation of Satellite Radiances Now Has **__**Larger**__** Impact on Accuracy of Model Guidance Than Assimilation of Radiosonde+ Observations**_

**500Z, N.Hem, 89 cases**

**500Z, S.Hem, 89 cases**

**Observing System****Experiments****(ECMWF - G. Kelly et al.)**
_**NoSAT**_**= no satellite radiances or winds**
_**Control**_**= like operations**
_**NoUpper**_**=no radiosondes, no pibal winds, no wind profilers**

**Notes:**
Quick Scat gives ambiguous winds.

## GSI (Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)  NCEP’s Next Generation Analysis

- Concentrates analysis development on a single unified analysis system
- GSI is an evolutionary combination of global (SSI) and regional (Eta) 3DVAR analysis systems
- Will add temporal components to GSI that will approach 4DVAR capability but at ~3DVAR expense.

## GSI Analysis System

- A grid space definition of the background errors is used to allow the use of situation dependent (anisotropic) background errors
- The GSI is a *multipurpose* system for use to address
- Global forecast problem
- Regional/Mesoscale forecast problem
- Rapid Update system
- Surface Analysis/verification system
- Research problems
- The GSI analysis system is basis for our collaborative work with other groups.
- F90/95 structures and utilities
- Improved efficiency
- Redesigned data distribution
- Some OpenMP
- Better documentation
- Less dependency on IBM

## 6 hr Forecast Error Reduced Using GSI – June 2006

- Operations

- GSI Parallel

**SSI – large 6 h fcst error but**
**Smaller error beyond 48 h**

**GSI – well balanced increment**
**Fields lead to small 6 h error**

## Resolution

- More is ALWAYS better
- Grid spacing is driven by computer power
- To reduce a model’s grid spacing by half requires 8X computer power (to run in same time window)
- Grid spacing does not equal resolution
- For atmospheric features to be properly simulated, they need to be covered by 10 grid points
- Unresolved physical features (like terrain & coasts etc) can not easily be parameterized

## 12 km Terrain                                       4 km Terrain

- Dots represent water points  Domain is San Francisco Bay

**GFS ~35km**

## 12 km Terrain                                       4 km Terrain

- Dots represent water points  Domain is Chesapeake Bay

**GFS**

## 12 km Terrain                                       4 km Terrain

- Dots represent water points  Domain is Puget Sound

**GFS**

## Limitations in Model Formulation

- Dynamics
- Grid layout, diffusion, advection, time-stepping etc
- Numerical techniques and approximations
- Dependent on grid-spacing
- Nonhydrostatic dynamics are important whenever there are strong vertical motion and accelerations
- Physical Parameterizations
- Represent unresolved physical processes
- Inherently lack accuracy & universal applicability

## PHYSICS “WHEEL OF PAIN”

_**PHYSICS “WHEEL OF PAIN”**_

## Uncertainty Can Be Estimated From Ensemble Forecasts 

- Uncertainty of Model Forecast
- Uncertainty of Atmospheric Regime
- Accurate Estimates of the Complete Probability Density Function Can Be Obtained From A Well Calibrated Ensemble Forecast System
- NCEP Runs:
- Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)
- Global Ensemble System (GENS)
- North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) with Canada and Mexico

## Recent Operational Changes in Regional Modeling

- Weather research and Forecast (WRF) common modeling infrastructure
- HiResWindow – NMM & ARW at ~5 km explicit convection June 2005
- SREF – added 3 NMM & 3 ARW members at ~40 km  December 2005
- NAM: 12 km WRF-NMM replaces Eta and
- 			GSI replaces Eta 3DVar – June 2006
- NAM updates in Aug., Sept. & Dec. 2006
- Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)

## Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Modeling System

- Promote closer ties between research and operations

- Develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and assimilation system

- 

- 

**Concept:**

- Design for 1-10 km horizontal grids
- Portable and efficient on parallel computers
- Well suited for a broad range of applications
- Community model with direct path to operations

- Collaborators: NCAR, NCEP/EMC, AFWA, Navy, NOAA/FSL, U. Okla.

## http://www.dtcenter.org/events/tutorial07_winter/index.html

- _[http://www.dtcenter.org/events/tutorial07_winter/index.html](http://www.dtcenter.org/events/tutorial07_winter/index.html)_

- 27 February – 3 March 2007

## Example of Explicit WRF-NMM courtesy of NSSL’s Jack Kain

- 4.5 km WRF-NMM                                  Verifying 2 km radar reflectivity

- WRF 24 hour 4.5 km forecast of 1 hour accumulated precipitation valid at
- 00Z April 21, 2004 (better than 12 hour forecasts by operational models)

## Chance that truth is 

**Chance that truth is **
**outside ensemble range**

**RMS Error**

- 21 member

- 15 member

**SREF Enhancement with 6 WRF-based Members**

*http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html*

- Lower Error

- Better Spread

## SREF Guidance Contributes to SPC First-Ever Day-2 High Risk Outlook for April 7, 2006

-   Significant Tornado Probability forecast
- Derived from SREF (David Bright)

**SREF Guidance**

_***over 60 tornadoes***__** observed**_!

## 20 June 2006 NAM

**Replace Eta Model with WRF version of Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)**
- WRF Common Modeling Infrastructure
- Non-hydrostatic dynamics
- Use of hybrid sigma-pressure vertical coordinate
- Extended model top to 2 mb
- Refined advection, diffusion, numerics and physics
**Replace Eta 3D-Var analysis with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis**
- Unified (regional+global) 3D-VAR analysis adapted to WRF
- Begin use of background errors based on WRF-NMM to 2 mb
- Use of new moisture analysis variable(coupled to temperature)
- Use of dynamically retuned observational errors

- _[http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/WRFinNAM/Update_WRF-NMM_replacing_Eta_in_NAM2.pdf](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/WRFinNAM/Update_WRF-NMM_replacing_Eta_in_NAM2.pdf)__ _

## 20 June 2006 NDAS

- Model initialization
- Use of new unified (regional + global) package (George Gayno) for bringing in external fields for WRF-NMM
- Begin use of high resolution (1/12th degree) SST
- Begin use of high resolution (4 km) snow
- Common specification of terrain, land-sea mask
- Data assimilation changes
- Use of bias-corrected observed precipitation analysis values in land-surface physics (but without nudging T, moisture & cloud)
- Start assimilating WSR-88D Level II radial wind data
- Start assimilating GPS-Integrated Precipitable Water (IPW)
- Start assimilating NOAA-18 radiances
- Drop use of GOES Precipitable Water retrievals
- Drop use of SSM/I Total Precipitable Water retrieval

## TOVS/HIRS Satellite Channel Weighting Functions and Model Top Pressure

_**TOVS/HIRS Satellite Channel Weighting Functions and Model Top Pressure**_

- _New_ top 2 mb

- Old top 25 mb

## Real-Time Parallel Statshttp://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/pll12stats.nmmx_01jan06-23may06/ 

## Real-Time Monitoring Webpagehttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nampll12_fullcyc_2mbtop/ All Evaluation Materialshttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/WRFinNAM/ 

- _Performance Summary_
- Upper-Air guidance overall comparable
- Better than Eta at short range 12-36 hr
- Tails off by 84 hours
- More realistic mesoscale structure than Eta
- Most surface variables and visibility improved with smaller biases than Eta
- More realistic oceanic and tropical cyclones

- _Remaining Issues_
- Dry Drift with forecast range
- Over-deepening troughs
- Over active with tropical storms
- Unrealistically shallow pbl
- Very short-range Precip Spin-Down (convective)
- Turn overland surface temperatures back on
- Need for extra levels in solving the radiative transfer equations (for radiance assimilation)
- Extract more information from Level II radial winds

## Subjective Evaluation Summary“Thumbs Up” From All

| NCEP Center | Recommendation |
| --- | --- |
| AWC |  |
| SPC |  |
| HPC |  |
| OPC |  |

| Non-NCEP | Recommendation |
| --- | --- |
| Alaska Region |  |
| Central Region |  |
| Eastern Region |  |
| Southern Region |  |
| Western Region |  |
| Air Quality Program |  |

## Aug & Sept NAM Upgrades

- _Diffusion_ – increase amount and allow at more points
- Redefine _roughness length_ z0=z0base (veg component) + z0land, removing terrain height component
- Turn on assimilation of _surface temperature_ data over land in the GSI
- Sea-Surface Temperature
- Modified the SST preprocessing job to use new climatological values for **Great Salt Lake, Salton Sea** in southern California and **Fort Peck Reservoir** in Montana
- Revert back to using the 1/2 degree RTG_SST analysis used in the NAM-Eta due to problems with a persistent cold bias in the hi-res (1/12th degree) RTG_SST analysis in and north of the Bering Strait and in Hudson's Bay

## December 2006 NAM Upgradehttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/namchanges_dec2006/NAM_Upgrades.Nov2006.html 

**Geared to address:**
**Overdevelopment of mid-latitude cyclones**
**Exaggerated “digging” of troughs too far south**
**Convection (deep & shallow) triggering issues**
**Overactive tropical cyclone behavior**
**Parallel runs are:**
**In data assimilation: new divergence damper with extra damping of the external mode, applied (5x) more heavily in NDAS to reduce noise**
**Allow more points to experience diffusion**
**Tuning of convection and microphysics**
**Triggers adjusted for buoyant parcel point of view**
**Water-loading effects on buoyancy included**
**Microphysics tuned for more super-cooled water**

## 
Slight improvement in NAM QPF scores

A 5-10% reduction in NAM height, temperature and vector wind root-mean-square errors compared to radiosondes

Positive impacts increase with forecast range

A significant reduction in the false alarm rate for tropical storms  

The numerical instability observed off Newfoundland in ops NAM runs from 1-4 December was eliminated by these changes

**Slight improvement in NAM QPF scores**
**A 5-10% reduction in NAM height, temperature and vector wind root-mean-square errors compared to radiosondes**
** **
**Positive impacts increase with forecast range**
**A significant reduction in the false alarm rate for tropical storms  **
**The numerical instability observed off Newfoundland in ops NAM runs from 1-4 December was eliminated by these changes**

_**Dec 2006 NAM Upgrade Impacts**_

## Unobserved TC eliminated while Observed storm (Sergio) retained

## HiResWindow Fixed-Domain Nested Runs28 June 2005 Become Explicit WRF Runs

- _FOUR_ routine runs made at the same time every day when no hurricanes
- 00Z : Alaska & Hawaii
- 06Z : Western & Puerto Rico
- 12Z : Central & Hawaii
- 18Z : Eastern & Puerto Rico
- In 2007, will update to WRF v2.2 and push the resolution to ~4 km

- _[http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/)__ _Alaska domain is smaller than depicted

## Pyle Webpage Now Displaying Simulated Reflectivityhttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

- _Pyle Webpage Now Displaying Simulated Reflectivity__http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/_

**30 hour forecast valid 06z 6 December, 2005**

## NAM Plans for June 2007

- NMM Model
- Expand Domain ~22%
- Unified NOAH Land-Surface Model
- Reformulated Lateral Diffusion
- Momentum Mixing in BMJ Convection
- Mountain Blocking & Form Drag
- NAM GSI analysis
- Strong dynamic constraint
- Assimilate GPS bending angles
- Nonlinear QC
- Assimilate AIRS satellite data
- Ability to utilize multiple guess files; FGAT: first guess at observation time

## Expanded NAM Domain 2007

## NAM Plans 2009

- Next machine (providing ~5x blue/white) 2009-2010
- Add 4 km nests over CONUS and Alaska run to 48 hours only
- Nested fields available ~3 hours earlier than HiResWindow
- Parent run is 12 km with all its normal NAM products out to 84 hr
- 4 km output grids would be additional to existing NAM 12 km suite

-  Future 4 km Nests Imbedded in 12km NAM
-  Move NMM from WRF common modeling infrastructure to Earth System Modeling Framework

## Recent Operational Changes in Global Modeling Mark Iredell

- May 2006 Global Ensemble System (GENS) and NAEFS
- August 2006 GFS and GENS

## 31 May 2006 GENS

- GENS replaces bred modes with ensemble transform method to create perturbed initial conditions
- Now maintaining a 56 member ensemble with 14 16-day forecasts per 6 hour cycle
- North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

## North American Ensemble Forecast System

- Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA
- Now:CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 56/day out to 16 days
- ’07 – CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days
- Generates products for
- Intermediate users: forecasters at NCEP, WFOs, academia,
- 	media, private sector, ...
- Specialized users:  hydrologic applications in all three countries
- End users: forecasts for public distribution
- 	in US, Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM)
- Future activities
- Adding products (probabilistic in nature)
- Incorporating ensemble data from
- 	other centers (e.g., FNMOC)
- Unified evaluation/verification procedures

**International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products**

*After bias correction*

*Raw ensemble*

*Probabilistic skill extended *
*1-3 days*

## NAEFS Products

**NAEFS basic products – Gridded data**
- Ensemble members – NCEP & MSC
- 50 variables - U,v,t,z,CAPE, precip type, etc.
- Bias corrected ensemble forecasts - 35 variables
- Climate percentile (anomaly) forecasts -19 variables
- Availability through ftp
- Ensemble members currently, rest to be added later
- _[ftp://](ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/)__[ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod](ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/)__[/](ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/)_
**Derived products – Probabilities, etc**
- Generation tools: Use recently developed NAWIPS ensemble software
- 11 functionalities - Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc
- Request list: Assembled from NCEP Service Centers and other users
- 600+ graphical products for  7 domains
- Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA Carib., Africa
- Product availability – in priority order
- Graphics: NCEP Model Web Page, beginning FY07
- NAWIPS grids, beginning FY07
- NDGD grids – planning phase

*After bias correction*

*Bias in raw forecast*

## August 22, 2006 GFS Upgrade

- Forcing changes
- Orography and land sea mask
- Snow analysis processing
- Land property quality control
- Physics changes
- Ozone physics
- Glacial ice
- Longwave radiation at surface
- Dynamics changes
- Time filter
- Infrastructure changes
- Full **ESMF** compliance
- Consolidated I/O

## New Antarctic Ice Shelves(graphics from analyses valid 2006-08-15)

## Snow in Po valley

- is unrealistic

- Valley free of snow

- Water equivalent in mm.

## Global Modeling Plans 2007

-  Replace SSI with GSI
- Met-8 Winds
- COSMIC radio - occultation data
- GPS IPW
- AIRS every FOV
- GOES 1x1 replaces GOES 5x5
- SSM/I, AMSR-E, SSM/IS radiances (possible)
-  Implement new GFS model
-  Hybrid sigma-pressure vertical coordinate
-  Updated radiation module
-  Increasing ensemble memberships
-  80 perturbations in cycling
- 20 perturbation long forecasts in each cycle

## NCEP POST

- NCEP POST: a unified POST for _ALL_ NCEP atmospheric models
- Generalization of the NAM POST (aka WRF POST).
- Several GFS post algorithms will be included
- GFS definition of relative humidity
- isentropic level output
- dynamic tropopause
- User requested fields available by mid 2007:
- Sigma layer temperature at .90, .85, .80, .75, .70, 3 hourly intervals
- Omega on 500-700 mb layer
- Satellite look-alike product (broadband channel)
- Richardson number & Ellrod index
- Elevated CAPE diagnostic (300-60 pressure difference)
- Diagnostic surface visibility
- Satellite look-alike product (narrower instrument channels)
- User requested fields waiting until at least FY08:
- Simulated radar reflectivity
- Turbulent kinetic energy
- Simulated echo tops
- Model gravity wave diagnostic

## To FY08, and Beyond!

- New observations
- Refined GSI techniques
- Hybrid isentropic coordinate with enthalpy
- Ferrier microphysics
- Convection
- Boundary Layer
- Modular design (ESMF)
- Reforecasting

- Advanced data assimilation
- Semi-Lagrangian and increased resolution
- Raise top to the thermosphere and couple with ionosphere
- Couple short-term ocean
- Add aerosol and chemistry species

## NCEP’s Hurricane Forecast Guidance

- GFS
- T382/64L
- 3-D var
- Vortex relocation
- State of the science physics
- GFDL
- Movable nested
- Air-sea coupled
- Inner nest
- 9 km/42L
- Specialized vortex initialization,
- Upgraded with some GFS physics (2003, 2004)
- HWRF to replace GFDL in 2007

## Slide 54

## Real Time Ocean Forecasting

- Wave Modeling
- Global and Regional
- Unified model approach
- NOAA Wavewatch III
- Sea Surface Temperature & Winds
- NCEP Ocean Prediction Center support
- Gulfstream analysis & forecast
- Real-time Sea Ice products
- Basin-scale Ocean Model (new system)

## NCEP/MMAB Wave Products

- - Global and regional models for Alaskan Waters and _**Western North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific**_ with up to 168 h forecasts, 4 times daily
-   - Hurricane wave model combining global and GFDL model winds (Atlantic & East Pacific)

- - NOAA Wavewatch III operational at FNMOC
- - Recent NWW3 upgrades
-      Propagation
-      Sub-grid islands
-      Data assimilation (improves 0-12 h forecasts)

## Global Ocean Prediction with HYCOM

**Global Ocean Prediction with HYCOM**

-  Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is a hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure ocean model
-  Goal: to develop and demonstrate real-time, operational, high resolution ocean prediction systems for the Global Oceans and Basins
-   NCEP Partners with
-   University of Miami/RSMAS
-   NRL Stennis, NRL Monterey, FNMOC
-   NOAA PMEL, AOML
-   Los Alamos National Laboratory
-   Others (international, commercial)

**Chesapeake  Bay**

## NAM & GFS Products

- Data Access Portals

## http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nammeteograms/

**North American Domain is split into 12 Regions**

- GFS soundings (3 hrly @ 44mb each) can be downloaded from ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/

## Northern Six Sounding Sectors

## Southern Six Sounding Sectors

- We couldn't fit it on the maps above, but click _[here ](http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nammeteograms/stations/780160.html)__for BERMUDA_.

## Choice of Display and Cycle

- A set of NAM forecast surface meteograms and a time-section plot of forecast winds and cloud/ice water are available for this station.  Click on a **SAMPLE **meteogram plot below to get the ACTUAL forecast surface meteograms for this station, or click on a **SAMPLE **wind/cloud plot to get the time-section forecast.

## http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/research/tiles.221.html

**Each tile file is approximately 2 mb in length**

## Grid 221 Tile Locations

## NOMADS Goals

-  Provide distributed access to models and associated data,
-  Promote model evaluation and product development,
-  Foster research within the geo-science communities (ocean, weather, and climate)

- _NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System_

_***NOMADS Goals***_

- nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov

- Glenn.Rutledge@noaa.gov

## 
Pare down large file sizes of high resolution data including Grib2 NDFD for access under a pull technology
(re-) Group data sets to create needed products – such as model input files for local model initialization, model development, analysis, or by forecast projection.
Subset the data:
in parameter space
in physical space 
in temporal space

Access to digital files:  
Click on Inventory

- Pare down large file sizes of high resolution data including Grib2 NDFD for access under a pull technology
- (re-) Group data sets to create needed products – such as model input files for local model initialization, model development, analysis, or by forecast projection.
- Subset the data:
- in parameter space
- in physical space
- in temporal space
- Access to digital files:
- Click on Inventory

_*Tools for Users*_

- _NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System_

- _[http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/](http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/)__ _

## Model Data Access

- Click here for NCEP R/T (Real-Time)

## NCEP Real-Time NOMAD5 Page

**Click on either of these**

## REAL-TIME NCEP Data Access

_**REAL-TIME NCEP **__**Data Access**_

## Display Interface from NOMAD5

- plot displayed

## Plotted Display From NOMAD5

## Model Terrain Comparison From NOMAD5 at 300m

- GFS from 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg

- NAM from 12 km

## NAM vs GFS 63hr & 66hr

## NAM vs GFS 69hr & 72hr

## NAM vs GFS 75hr & 78hr

## NAM vs GFS 81hr & 84hr

## Massive Unification CampaignAcross All of EMC

*Unified* Framework - **ESMF**
*Unified* Data Assimilation - GSI
*Unified* Forecast Model
*Unified* Physics
*Unified* Postprocessor – NCEP Post
*Unified* Verification
*Unified* Ensemble
*Unified* Reanalysis & Reforecasting
*Unified* NCEP-ESRL strategy
*Unified* NCEP-GMAO strategy
*Unified* NCEP-Navy-USAF strategy

## ESMFEarth System Modeling Framework

- ESMFEarth System Modeling Framework

- NOAA GFDL**Ants Leetmaa****V. Balaji****Robert  Hallberg****Jeff Anderson**
- NOAA NCEP**Stephen Lord****Mark Iredell****Mike Young****John Derber**
- DOE Los Alamos Nat’l Lab**Phil Jones**
- DOE Argonne Nat’l Lab**Jay Larson****Barry Smith**
- University of Michigan**Quentin Stout**

- NSF NCAR***Tim Killeen, PI*****Byron Boville****Cecelia DeLuca****Roberta Johnson****John Michalakes**
**	****Al Kellie**
- MIT***John Marshall, PI*****Chris Hill**
- NASA GMAO***Arlindo da Silva, PI***
***	******Leonid Zaslavsky***
***     ******Will Sawyer***
**     ****Max Suarez****Michele Rienecker****Christian Keppenne**
**     ****Christa Peters-Lidard**

## ESMF* Compliant Component System 

- Coupler

- Dynamics
- (1,2)

- Physics
- (1,2,3)

**ESMF Superstructure**
**(component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)**

- ESMF Utilities
- (clock, error handling, etc)

**Application Driver**

- Post processor & Product Generator
- Verification
- Resolution change

- Ocean +/or
- Land-Sfc +/or
- Analysis

- Ensemble membership
- (component performance)
- (equally probable)

- 1-1
**1-2**
**1-3**
**2-1**
- 2-2
**2-3**

- * **Earth System Modeling Framework**

## Concurrent execution of global and regional forecast models

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|  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
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|  |  |
| --- | --- |
|  |  |

**Model Region 1**

**Model Region 2**

**Global Model Domain**

**Common Modeling Infrastructure is ****ESMF****-based**
**In-core Solution**
- Single executable for analysis, all model domains
- No file writes or reads except for saving output
**Concurrent execution of ensembles**
- Single executable
**More efficient execution of ****rapid updating**
- In-core updating for analysis increments
- Global
- Regional (CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Caribb. & Puerto Rico)

**Analysis**

- Phase 1

## Slide 82