# Presentation: 289277

## Climatic Risks Zoning and Brazilian  biofuels agriculture

**16.391,90**

**17.069,10**

**19.114,40**

**Climatic Risks Zoning and Brazilian  biofuels agriculture**

**USDA Global Conference on Agricultural Biofuels: **
**Research and Economics**
**Minneapolis, Minnesota    August 20-22,2007**

**Eduardo Delgado Assad**
**Embrapa**

## Brazilian Agricultural Zoning 

**Brazilian Agricultural Zoning **
**Agribusiness GDP in 2006: US$ 180 billions (33% GDP - US$ 500 billion)**
**Agribusiness Exportations: US$ 35 billions (42%)**
**    ****Grain production in 2007  :133,4 millions tons**
**Program coordinated by the Department of Agriculture and EMBRAPA (National Institute for Agricultural Research) since 1995**
**Federal Farm Credit Policy**
**	****US$ 8 billion (US$ 2.5 billion for small farmers)**
**	**

## Cause:    Water deficiency in critical phases: 60% 

**Cause:    Water deficiency in critical phases: 60% **
**Water excess - harvesting: 30%**

## Product

**Decrease the climate risks**
**dry spells during flowering and grain-filling (60%)**
**excessive rain during the harvest period (30%)**
**Product**
**Planting Calendars**
**Crops: Corn, Soybean, Beans, Rice (Wheat, Sorghum, Fruits, Coffee and biofuel crops)**
**Periods: Dekad (10 days), Oct to Dec (Jan to Dec)**
**Counties / Municipal districts**
**Macro-regions: Central, Southeast ,South and  Northeast**
**Risk: less than or equal to 20%**

## General Methodology

**General Methodology**
**Simulation of cumulative water balance for different soil types, planting dates, cycle lengths, ground stations**
**Decision criteria / Risk Analysis:**
**	****a) WRSI during reproductive stage ******** Threshold Value (80% of all simulated years)  **
**	****WRSI: Water Requirement Satisfaction Index**
**	****WRSI = actual / maximum evapotranspiration**
**	****b) Excessive rain during harvest**
**	**

## Data Base

**Data Base**
**Length of four growth stages (Initial, Vegetative, Reproductive and Maturity) for early and normal cultivars**
**Length of total growing period**
**Crop coefficient (Kc)**
**Soil water holding capacity**
**Rainfall**
**Evapotranspiration**

## CLIMATIC  risks zoning 

**CLIMATIC  risks zoning **
**Rain stations distribution**

## P

- “criterion”

- 3a phenological phase

- 0

- 1

- 2

- 3

- 4

- 5

- 33

- 34

- 35

-   

- days

- WRSI

- f wrsi(x)

- 1

**WRSI= value**

**P**

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

## Actually Zoning Crops 

- Rice
- Beans
- Corn
- Wheat
**Soybeans**
- Sorghun
- Coffee
**Cotton**
**Castor Bean**

- Apple
- Vigna beans
- Banana
- Cashew nuts
- Barley
- Maninhot
**Oil Palm (2007)**
**Sunflower (2007)**
**Peanuts (2007****)**
**Rape seed(2007)**

## Oil Palm  possible surface production with low risk– Bahia State

**Oil Palm  possible surface production with low risk– Bahia State**

## Oil Palm Potential

**Oil Palm Potential**

**Oil yield     3000 Kg/ha/year**

**5 ****ha = one family (5 persons)**
**Important policy to the small farms**

## Sunflower possible surface production with low risk

**Sunflower possible surface production with low risk**

**South region**

## Sunflower possible surface production with low risk

**Sunflower possible surface production with low risk**

**Others regions**

## Sunflower Production (2005)

**Sunflower Production (2005)**
**[Oil] -  44%     **
**Oil Yield 430 kg/ha/year**

## Peanuts possible surface production with low risk

**Peanuts possible surface production with low risk**

**Oil Yield – 600 kg/ha/year**

## Peanuts

**Peanuts**
**Yield 600kg/ha/year**

**[oil]****	****	****50% **

## Castor Bean possible surface production with low risk

**Castor Bean possible surface production with low risk**

**Oil Yield ~ 1000 Kg/ha/year**

## Castor Bean 

**Castor Bean **

**[oil]  48%**
**Important option for the small farmers  **

## Castor bean 

**Castor bean **

## Soybean possible surface production with low risk

**Soybean possible surface production with low risk**

** ****Oil Yield  500 Kg/ha/year**

## Sugar Cane Preliminar zoning to new areas expansion

** **
**12 regions to expansion of**
**Ethanol production**

*Slide from* *prof. Luiz Cortez UNICAMP/SP*

**Sugar Cane Preliminar zoning to new areas expansion**

## Sugar Cane with low risk Mato Grosso State

**Sugar Cane with low risk Mato Grosso State**

- Low Risk
- Intermediate

## Biomass Potential production

## Ethanol potential production

**Ethanol potential production**

## Climatic risks zoning in Piaui State

- intermediate

**Climatic risks zoning in Piaui State**

- Low Risk
- Intermediate
- High Risk

## Ethanol potential production

**Ethanol potential production**

## Products  Organization  

## Slide 28

## Slide 29

## Slide 30

## Slide 31

## Slide 32

## Slide 33

## Thanks

- _[assad@cnptia.embrapa.br](mailto:assad@cnptia.embrapa.br)_
**www.agritempo.gov.br**