# Presentation: 367799

## Global Aerosol Forecasting System

- Applications to Houston/Costa Rica Aura Validation Experiments

- Arlindo da Silva
- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Code 610.1
- Peter Colarco
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch, Code 613.3

## Goals

- Incorporate state of the art aerosol and chemistry packages into the GEOS-5 global climate model and data assimilation system
- Provide to the NASA and wider science community “chemical weather” forecasts
- Forecasts produced in same modeling framework used to support funded investigations of aerosol effects on climate and assimilation of A-Train aerosol products
- Aerosol/Chemistry packages are ESMF components integrated into MAP modeling environment

## Aerosols

- Developed an implementation of the GOCART aerosol module for major tropospheric aerosol_x0010_ species

*Collaborator: Mian Chin, Code 613.3*

## CO and CO2

- Implemented modules for CO and CO2 forecasting capability based on Code 613.3 PCTM
- CO
- sources from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning
- chemical production from NMHC and CH4 oxidation, chemical loss to OH oxidation
- oxidants for chemistry based on GEOS-CHEM/GMI and CMDL GLOBALVIEW-CH4
- CO2
- sources from biosphere, ocean, and fossil fuel following Transcom 3 protocol, and biomass burning

*Collaborators: Huisheng Bian, Randy Kawa, Code 613.3*

## Biomass Burning Emissions

- QFED: Daily biomass burning emissions of aerosols, CO, CO2, and SO2
- Real-time MODIS firecounts from Aqua and Terra

*Collaborators: Jim Collatz, Code 614.4, Mian Chin, Tom Kucsera, Code 613.3*

- Emission factors calibrated against Global Fire Emission Database (GFED)

- QFED

## Chemical Forecasts

- Aerosols, CO, and CO2 currently transported “on-line” in current GEOS-4 global climate model
- Same modules can also be run in GMAO’s next generation GEOS-5 system
- Depending on mission requirements other packages are available, e.g, full stratospheric chemistry as used for PAVE
- GMI combined tropospheric/stratospheric chemistry modules under integration (with SIVO)
- Model is run in global domain, 1° x 1.25 ° horizontal resolution, 55 vertical levels extending to 85 km
- GEOS-5 version will be run at 0.5o resolution
- 5-day forecasts run twice daily at 0Z and 12Z with atmospheric state from GMAO’s *First Look* Data Assimilation System

*Collaborators: GMAO Operations Group*

## Aura Validation Experiment Support

- http://code613-3.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Colarco/CRAVE
*Please also see the HyperWall display in the*
*Back, soon in the Bldg. 33 Lobby!*

## Aura Validation Experiment Products

- Forecast animations of aerosol optical thickness and tracer mixing ratios
- Forecast and analysis static plots of aerosol optical thickness and tracer mixing ratio
- Vertical cross-section “curtain plots” of tracer mixing ratio along north-south and east-west flight trajectories

## Model Evaluation

- Analysis of CRAVE mission data is preliminary

## Model Evaluation

- Analysis of CRAVE mission data is preliminary
- Aerosols are being compared to previous off-line GOCART runs
- GOCART is run at 2o x 2.5o resolution with GEOS-3 meteorology

## Model Evaluation

- Analysis of CRAVE mission data is preliminary
- Aerosols are being compared to previous off-line GOCART runs
- Aerosols are being compared to AERONET and MODIS datasets
- Sampling of model and satellite data in a consistent manner is important for comparison

- September 2000 (SAFARI-2000)
- Monthly Mean AOT

- MODIS

- GEOS-4
- unsampled

- GEOS-4
- sampled
- like MODIS

## Data Assimilation

- MODIS Assimilation:
- 1D-Var assimilation of radiances (MODIS/OMI)
- Observation bias corrections and source defect estimated by means of forecast bias estimates
- Combined MODIS/OMI Assimilation:
- Improve estimation of absorption by using OMI UV/Visible channels
- 1D-Var assimilation of MODIS and OMI radiances
- Monitoring of OMI radiances and assimilated aerosol fields

*Collaborators: Clark Weaver, Omar Torres, Amelia Colarco, Code 613.3*

- AERONET AOT

- GOCART Analysis AOT

- Weaver et al., 2006, JAS, *in review*

## Future Directions

- Continue support for other NASA missions: INTEX, AMMA
- Funded and proposed work for data assimilation of MODIS, OMI, SAGE,CALIPSO, GLAS, etc., radiance and aerosol products
- Pending ROSES/DECISIONS proposal for GFS-GOCART
- This project will give NCEP aerosol forecasting capabilities
- Funded work under MAP for incorporation of aerosol and cloud microphysics for improved aerosol composition, direct effect, and indirect effect estimations

## GEOS-4 Model Description

- 1.25° x 1° horizontal, 32 vertical levels
- GSFC dynamical core and assimilated meteorology
- NCAR physics
- GOCART aerosols:	dust (5 bins), seasalt (5 bins),
- 		sulfate, organic and black carbon

- GSFC

- Capo Verde

- Mongu

- Model +/- 1
- AERONET +/- 1