# Presentation: 200117

## Agricultural Systems Modeling: Challenges and Opportunities

**Agricultural Systems Modeling: Challenges and Opportunities**

***Ghassem R. Asrar***
***Deputy Administrator***
***Natural Resources & Sustainable Agricultural Systems***

**37****th**** Biological Systems Simulation Conference**
**College Park, Maryland**
**April 18, 2007**

##  16% of the $9 trillion gross 	domestic product.
 8% of U.S. exports in 2006.
 17% of employment.
 < 2% U.S. workforce on farms.
 100% of the citizens are users.

** ****8% of U.S. exports in 2006.**
** ****17% of employment.**
** ****< 2% U.S. workforce on farms.**
** ****100% of the citizens are users.**

_**American Agriculture’s**__**Accomplishments:**_

**Agricultural Systems Modeling: Challenges and Opportunities**

## Research has enabled increased production through:

** ****Higher yielding crops.**
** ****Increased land area under ****	****cultivation.**
** ****Greater production efficiencies.**
** ****Mechanization and other ****	****technologies.**

_**Research has enabled increased production through:**_

**Agricultural Systems Modeling: Challenges and Opportunities**

## 
 Natural resource concerns.
 Changing market conditions.
 New technology introductions.
 Solving major problems.

** ****Natural resource concerns.**
** ****Changing market conditions.**
** ****New technology introductions.**
** ****Solving major problems.**

_**Research has also helped producers address:**_

**Agricultural Systems Modeling: Challenges and Opportunities**

## Challenges Ahead:

-  **Food, feed, fiber production.**
-  **Bio-based energy production.**
** ****Water availability, drought, ****	****and water quality.**
** ****Air quality and regulations.**
** ****Production in a changing ****	****climate, while addressing  ****	****safety and security.**

**Agricultural Systems Modeling: Challenges and Opportunities**

## New challenges:

** ****Decision making is no longer limited to ****	****single-factor effects.**
** ****Complex problems require holistic solutions. **
** ****Need to look across disciplines and national ****	****program boundaries for partnerships.**
** ****Problem-solving requires a systems approach.**
** ****Partnerships are essential for success!**

**Agricultural Systems Modeling: Challenges and Opportunities**

_**New challenges:**_

## Critical Role for Modeling:

** ****Contribute to holistic sustainable solutions that ****	****enhance agriculture competitiveness and ****	****profitability.**

** ****Full partner in outcome-****	****based, problem-solving ****	****research. **
** ****Leader in identifying ****	****critical challenges and ****	****opportunities.**

**Agricultural Systems Modeling: Challenges and Opportunities**

## Models Must: Be able to operate using real-world observations that are not “research quality”, e.g.

** ****Standard weather data.**
** ****Soil survey maps.**
** ****Routine user-collected samples.**
** ****Volunteer-collected observations. **

**Challenges/Opportunities**

## Challenges/Opportunities

**Challenges/Opportunities**

**Cell-Plant**

**Field-Farm**

**Watershed-Region**

**National-Global**

_**Models Must**_**: Be able to handle scales across space and time.**

## Models Must: Realistically represent real world processes and complexity.

-  **Biological. **
** ****Physical. **
** ****Biochemical.**
** ****Economic.**
** ****Other constraints.**

**Challenges/Opportunities**

## Models Must: Produce results that can be applied to a variety of needs specified by the user community.

**Agricultural**
**Producers & Consultants**

**Strategic Decision Makers**

**Research Community**

**Government Action Agencies**

**Challenges/Opportunities**

## Models Must: Be rigorously validated to ensure confidence in their results and maintain credibility.

** ****Across ecological regions.**
** ****Different management ****	****systems.**
** ****Within-field to larger scales.**
** ****Accommodate the national ****	****observing networks.**

**Challenges/Opportunities**

## Models Must: Produce results that are easily understood by the user community.

** ****Custom documentation. **
** ****Software with GUI.**
** ****Multiple output forms.**
** ****Web data exchange ****	****protocols.**

**Challenges/Opportunities**

## Models are needed to address:

** ****What are the consequences of climate change ****	****on production, gaseous emissions, pest ****	****populations, etc.?**
** ****What would be the effect of regional drought on ****	****agricultural-based energy production?**
** ****What production strategies have the least risk ****	****of economic loss? **
** ****How can natural resource quality be best ****	****managed while achieving production goals?**
** ****What are adaptation and mitigation approaches ****	****to agricultural production in 21****st**** Century? **

**Challenges/Opportunities**

## Develop scientific knowledge and technology that ensure safe and affordable supplies of food, feed, fiber, and renewable energy while enhancing the environment and quality of life for producers, rural communities, the Nation, and the world.

**Natural Resources and Sustainable Agricultural Systems**