# Presentation: 007181

## Director’s Updateof the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

- COPC Meeting
- NOAA Science Center, Camp Springs, Maryland
- November 28, 2001
- Dr. Louis Uccellini
- Director, NCEP
*“**Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”*

## Overview

- Computer Status
- Model Status
- MOA Status
- Cooperative Activities

## IBM SP

- Benchmark performance ~ 46 times C90
- Phase II upgrade completed
- Part 1 of Phase II – Dec 5
- Past 2 of Phase II – Feb 13
- Four 375 MHz CPUs per node
- 2176 compute processors in 38 frames
- 128 newly acquired processors for climate
- Two systems; one for operations, one for development
- 544 compute nodes
- 8 MB L2 cache per CPU
- 2 GB memory per node
- 14.7 TB disk subsystem
- 200 TB robotic tape system

## Slide 4

## Slide 5

## Slide 6

## Last updated Nov 2, 2001

## Global Model Implementation

- Physics Package Changes
- Inclusion of cloud condensate as a history variable
- Use of cloud condensate in radiative transfer calculations
- Inclusion of cumulus momentum mixing
- Analysis Upgrades
- Stronger quality control for AMSU radiances
- Refinement of hurricane relocation algorithm

- May 15, 2001

## Slide 9

## Slide 10

## Climate Model Status

- Additional nodes installed on IBMSP August 2001
- First operational run of Seasonal Forecast Model initiated on September 6, 2001
- T62 (200km) L28 configuration
- 7 month forecast with 20 member ensemble
- 21 year hindcast with 10 member ensemble for a climatology of the model for the month when the forecasts are initiated, to derive anomalies of the model forecasts to be used for CPC product generation.

## Eta Model Implementation

- Assimilation of observed precipitation during the EDAS
- Changes to the land-surface physics
- Modifications to the 3DVAR analysis to improve mass-wind balance constraint

- July 24, 2001

## Eta Model Implementation

- Resolution increases
- Horizontal from 22 km to 12 km
- Vertical from 50 levels to 60 levels
- New gridscale cloud+precip scheme
- Necessitates changes to precip assimilation
- 3DVAR analysis
- Use of 1b radiances (consistent with global)
- More scalable code

- November 27, 2001

## Surface winds 22km vs 12km

## Surface winds 22km vs 12km

## Fixed Domain Eta “Nests”

- High-resolution regional Eta forecasts "nested" inside of the parent Eta (12km/60 lev resolution)
- Running six nested domains
- Hawaii and Puerto Rico twice per day
- Alaska, East, West, Central U.S. once per day
- Alaska is 12km resolution, rest are 10 km
- mid-year 2002, nests reduced to 8km (Alaska 10km) and imbedded in 12km non-hydrostatic Eta

-  Output available on NCEP ftp
-    server

## Short Range Ensemble Forecast System

- 10 Members (5 Eta, 5 RSM)
- 48 km resolution
- Run twice daily from 09Z and 21Z to 63 hours
- Products available ~same time as 12Z and 00Z Eta
- Regional breeding for initial condition perturbations
- Lateral boundary conditions from 9 hr old global ensemble

## Slide 19

## Status of NOAH Land Surface Model

- Latest upgrade implemented in Eta/EDAS on 24 Jul 2001
- Latest upgrade also implemented during Jul-Oct 2001 in
- Regional Reanalysis
- NCEP real time prototype national land data assimilation system
- NASA/NCEP joint real time prototype global LDAS
- AFWA AGRMET system (USAF operational LDAS)
- U. Arizona LSM objective calibration system

## Future Plans for NOAH LSM

- Propagate latest NOAH LSM into NCEP global modeling systems
- All global systems presently use mid-90's NOAH
- Testing to begin 2nd Quarter 2002
- Unify NCEP and NCAR LSMs for 2002 release in WRF model

## NOAA Wave Watch III

- Replaced all previous operational wave models at NCEP on March 9, 2000
- Global model at 1x1 deg lat-lon resolution from 78S to 78N, run twice daily out 126 hours
- Nested regional models for Alaskan Waters  and Western North Atlantic (both 0.25x0.25 deg) run twice daily out 126 hours
- All models run from GDAS/AVN and ice analysis and use a spectral discretization with 24 directions and 25 frequencies
- GFDL driven hurricane version run during Atlantic hurricane season.

## NOAA Wave Watch III Future Plans

- Implementation of Eastern North Pacific regional model (0.25x0.25 deg) by Fall 2002
- Cooperative projects
- Near-shore swell forecasts on West Coast (CDIP, Scripps, UCSD)
- Bar forecast for Humbold Bay (Eureka WFO)
- Coupling and Data Assimilation
- In development and discussion phase

## Planned 2002 Implementations

- Eta Model
- Extend off–time runs to 84 hrs – January
- Upgrade physics package – May
- Upgrade package for 3DVAR & Assimilation – November
- GFDL
- Either two grid system (1/2 & 1/6 degree) or three grid system (1/2, 1/6, & 1/12 degree) – May
- RUC Model
- Increase resolution from 40 to 20 km - TBD

## Planned 2002 Implementations (cont.)

-  Global Model
- Increase resolution to T254 (~55km)
- More to come
- Global Ensembles
-  Resolution increase to T126 (~105km) out to 7 days – April
-  Coastal Ocean Forecasting System – June
-  Wave Model
-  Eastern Pacific Region Wave Model – June
-  Eastern Pacific Hurricane Wave Model RTTE – June
-  Climate Model
-  Implement weekly global ocean data assimilation system for climate forecasting – September

## Current Cooperative Activities

- Washington VAAC Backup by AFWA
- Provision of AGRMET data to NCEP by AFWA
- NCEP use of DoD MSRC Computational Resources (at NAVO)
- WRF
- Pacific Winter Reconnaissance Program (Zoltan Toth; extended to 2 + months this winter)
- JCSDA

## MOAs in Progress

- MOA between NCEP and AFWA regarding Daily Transmission of Agriculture Meteorological Model data.
- Signed by both parties as of November 27, 2001
- MOA between NCEP, W-VAAC and AFWA for exchange of information and backup support of the W-VAAC
- In initial stages
- Focal point – Dave Weinbrenner

## Summary

- NCEP is in good shape
- Computer
- Development/operations
- New procurement on schedule
- Models
- Models enhanced, performance improved
- Infrastructure
- Supporting operations (supercomputer to workstation environment)
- Several important changes planned for 2002
- Global model system
- Eta, RUC, GFDL, Wave Watch III
- Getting ready for WRF

## Appendix

## NCEP Production Suite

- Production Suite
- 532 codes – 20 utilizing message passing (use MPI)
- 2.4 million lines of code & script
- Schedule _[http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/NCO/PMB/prod_overview/](http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/NCO/PMB/prod_overview/)_
- GIF Images _[http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/NCO/PMB/nwprod/analysis/](http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/NCO/PMB/nwprod/analysis/)_
- Major Model Runs
- Rapid Update Cycle – 40 Km/40 Lvl (hourly)
- Eta Model – 22 Km/ 50 lvl (4 times daily – 84 hrs, off-time 48 hrs)
- NGM (twice daily)
- Aviation Run – T170  75km/42 lvl (4 times daily – on-time 126 hrs, off-time 84 hrs)
- Medium Range Forecast – T170 75km/42 lvl – 168 hrs; T62 210km/28 lvl – 384 hrs (once per day – 16 days)

## NCEP Production Suite (continued)

- Global Data Assimilation (4 times daily)
- GFDL Hurricane 18km/18 lvl (on demand – 4 storms, 4 times daily –  on-time 126 hrs, off-time 78 hrs)
- Wave Watch III – 1 x 1.25 deg (2 times daily – 126 hrs)
- Regional Ensembles (10 members twice daily at 48 km)
- Global Ensembles (10 members twice daily, T126 105km/42 lvl – 84 hrs, T62 210km/28 lvl – 2 times daily – 16 days )
- Global Climate Forecasts (20 members – 6 month forecast, 1 per month)

## 2001 Implementations

- Eta Model
- Extend runs to 84 hrs – March 20
- FOUS to 60 hrs – May 15
- Nested “Threats runs” Real Time Test and Evaluation (RTTE) – April 25
- Available on NCEP ftp server
- Assimilate Precip, Upgrade land-surface model  – June 26
- 12 km/60 lvl – November 27
- GFDL Model
- Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere model (Atlantic & Gulf only) – May 22
- Regional Ensembles
- Available on NCEP ftp server only – June 5
- 10 Members twice daily at 48 km

## 2001 Implementations (continued)

- OC3 Line Upgrade
- (155 Mbits/sec between OOS and NCEP) – September 23
- Global Model
- Prognostic Cloud Water, Convective Scheme, Tropical Storm relocation package – May 15
- Global Ensembles
- Extend high resolution (T126) from 60 to 84 hrs – January 9
- Wave Model
- North Atlantic Hurricane Wave Model – June 12
- Global Climate Model
- Final Operating Capability – Nov 6

## Product Availability Schedule

_**MODEL**_				_**Time**_*****      	_**Late**_******
- NGM MOS:				02+45	        	10 min
- Eta 60 hr fcst:				03+00 	        	10 min
- Aviation  120 hr fcst:			04+15 	        	10 min
- Wave Model:				04+40 	        	10 min
- Hawaii Regional Spectral:			06+100 	        	10 min
- MRF 384 hr fcst:				07+50 	        	10 min
- RUC 12 hr fcst (on-time, 3 hourly):		hh+45        	  5 min
- RUC  3 hr fcst (off-time):			hh+40	        	  5 min
- Complete list available at:  **http//www.ncep.noaa.gov/PMB/NCO/Proposed_Delivery_Targets**

***    Relative to Synoptic Time**
****  15 minutes is current for all**

## NCEP Backup Configuration

- AFWA MM5 for Eta AWIPS grids (4 cycles/day for CONUS)
- FNMOC NOGAPS for AVN AWIPS grids and fax products
- FNMOC WW3 for Global Ocean Wave AWIPS grids
- FNMOC GFDN Hurricane model in place of GFDL model
- UKMET backup for WAFS
- FSL hourly RUC2 for AWIPS grids

## NCEP Quarterly Backup Test

- Most recent Backup Test completed 10 October 2001
- Products disseminated from backup processing instead of        NCEP production for 12Z cycle
- RH grids from NOGAPS had problems (fixed)
- Output Wave Model flipped (fixed)
- Next live test planned for January 2002
- 30 day notification to users

## NCEP’s Contribution to Homeland Security

- Phase I
- Routine runs of the ARL HYSPLIT dispersion model from 12 km Eta model (15 sites 4 times daily) - Nov
- Phase II
- On call 4 km Eta run on any of 16 predefined regions covering all of U.S. – Jan 02
- Phase III
- Routine 4 km Eta over CONUS – TBD
- Phase III will require additional computational resources
- Acquire Funding
- Adjust NCEP production schedule
- Offload portion of NCEP processing