# Presentation: 118068

## Andy Walker PhD PE 
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

**National Renewable Energy Laboratory**

**"Zero Energy (100% Renewables): ****Multi-parametric Cost Optimization" ****NREL Strategic Energy Analysis and Applications Center Seminar****August 9, 2007**

**Notes:**
Key talking points:

NREL is a significant national asset – more than just RE and EE, we also do R&D in how these technologies fit into the energy mix.
We are well-positioned to play a role in the President’s new energy initiatives and are well aligned with his priorities

We have made good progress but there is much yet to be done
We need new investments in our infrastructure
We don’t want to lose sight of the balance between long-term and short-term results
How can you help?
Support our major initiatives, we need bipartisan support

## Energy Solutions Are Enormously Challenging

**Energy Solutions Are Enormously Challenging**

**Must address all three imperatives**

**Vulnerability or Opportunity**

**Energy Security**

**Economic Productivity**

**Environmental Impact**

**Secure**** supply**
**Reliability**

**Growth in demand**
**Price volatility**

**Land and water use**
**Carbon emissions**

## Mounting Evidence...

**Notes:**
Melting polar ice caps
Aerial view of Kuwait fires
Smog over Houston
Hurricane Rita
Oil tanker spill
Coastal flooding

## Economic development is tightly correlated with energy consumption

**Economic development is tightly correlated with energy consumption**

**GJ/capita**

**GDP($K)/capita**

**Effect of **
**Geography**

## The Future of Energy

**1880**

**1860**

** ****500**

**0**

**1000**

**1500**

**1900**

**1920**

**1940**

**1960**

**1980**

**2000**

**2020**

**2040**

**2060**

**Surprise**

**Geothermal**

**Solar**

**Biomass**

**Wind**

**Nuclear**

**Hydro**

**Gas**

**Oil &NGL**

**Coal**

**Trad. Bio.**

**World Energy Use, (Exajoules** )

- Source:  *Shell, The Evolution of the World’s Energy Systems*, 1995

**Notes:**
Exajoule=10^18 joules, roughly equal to one quad. 

## Best Mix of Renewable Energy Technologies Depends on:	

- Renewable Energy Resources
- Technology Characterization
- Cost ($/kW installed, O&M Cost)
- Performance (efficiency)
- State, Utility and Federal Incentives
- Economic Parameters

## Renewable Energy Technologies Considered

- Photovoltaics (solar electricity)
- Wind Power
- Solar Ventilation Air Preheating
- Solar Thermal
- Biomass
- Boiler for heat
- Cogeneration for electricity
- Daylighting

## Optimization Problem

**Identify the least cost combination of renewable energy technologies to achieve ****net zero utility energy consumption**** for a facility**
**Objective**: Minimize Life Cycle Cost ($)
**Constraint**: Net Zero Utility Energy Use (0.0 M btu/year)
- Microsoft Office Excel Spreadsheet function: SOLVER
**Precision:** value of energy use 0.0 +/- 0.0001
**Convergence:** change in life cycle cost less than $0.0001 for five iterations
**Quadratic Extrapolation** to obtain initial estimates of the variables in one-dimensional search
**Central Derivatives** used to estimate partial derivatives of the objective and constraint functions
**Newtonian Search** Algorithm used at each iteration to determine the direction to search.

## Geographical Information System (GIS) Datasets

- NREL Datasets:
- solar radiation 40x40 km grid
- Horizontal, South-facing vertical, tilt=latitude
- Wind Energy 200mx1000m grid
- Biomass Resources
- Illuminance for Daylighting
- Temperature and Heating Degree Days
- Purchased Datasets
- utility rates for each service territory (Platts)
- State and utility incentives and utility policy (from DSIRE)
- Temperature and Heating Degree Day (NREL)
- City Cost Adjustments (RS Means & Co)
- Location Independent
- Installed Hardware Costs from NREL technology databook
- Economic Parameters (discount rate, inflation rate)

## Slide 12

## Technology Characterizations

-  Power Technologies Energy Data Book   _[http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/power_databook](http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/power_databook)_
- Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations EPRI Topical Report No. TR-109496 _[http://www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/tech_characterizations.html](http://www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/tech_characterizations.html)_
- Project experience

## Photovoltaics

## Global PV Shipments

**Global PV Shipments**

**U.S. National goals**
**Solar: Be market competitive by 2015 for PV and 2020 for CSP**
**Improved performance through, new materials, lower cost manufacturing processes, concentration**
**Nanostructures**

## Photovoltaics R&D

- Source:  NREL 2007

## Photovoltaics

## Wind Power

## Global Growth of Wind Energy Capacity

**U.S. National goals: **
**20% of total provided energy by Wind by 2030**
**Improve energy capture by 30%**
**Decrease costs by 25%**

## Wind and Marine Energy R&D

- Source:  NREL 2007

## New Detailed Maps Being Created

- 1987

- 2000

**New Detailed Maps Being Created**

## Wind Power

## Solar Ventilation Air Preheat

**kWh/m2/year**

## Solar Ventilation Air Preheat

## Solar Industrial Process Heat

## Concentrating Solar Power R&D

- Source:  NREL 2007

## Solar Industrial Process Heat

## Biomass Energy

## Biofuels R&D

- Source:  NREL 2007

## GIS Biomass Resource Information

**Crop residues (dry tonnes/year): corn, wheat, soybeans, cotton, sorghum, barley, oats, rice, rye, canola, dry edible beans, dry edible peas, peanuts, potatoes, safflower, sunflower, sugarcane, and flaxseed.. **
**Orchard and Grape (dry tonnes/year): **
**Forest residues (dry tonnes/year): **
**Primary mill residues (dry tonnes/year) **
**Secondary mill residues (dry tonnes/year): **
**Urban wood waste; **
**Methane emissions from landfills; **
**Methane emissions from manure management; and**
**Methane emissions from wastewater treatment.**

## Biomass – Technologies

- National goals:
**Reduce gasoline usage by 20% in ten years**
**New feedstocks**
**Integrated biorefineries**

## Biomass Heat and Electricity

**Daylighting**

## Daylighting

## State Policy Framework

**Renewable Electricity Standards**

- Source:  DSIRE database, March 2007

## Example: Net Zero Optimization for Seven Manufacturing Plants

## Annual Energy from Each Technology at Each Plant (with Basecase)

## Initial Costs for Each Technology at Each Plant

## Life Cycle Cost of Each Net Zero Plant versus BaseCase

## Photovoltaics

## Wind Power

## Solar Ventilation Air Preheat

## Solar Industrial Process Heat

## Biomass Energy

**Daylighting**

## Achieving the Right Balance:Technology Investment Pathways

- Source:  NREL 2007

## Promise of renewable energy is profound and can be realized if we...

**Promise of renewable energy is profound and can be realized if we...**

- Aggressively seek a global sustainable energy economy
- Accelerate investment in technology innovation
- Commit to consistent and predictable incentives for deployment
- Acknowledge and mitigate the carbon challenge with the necessary policies

***It is a matter of national will and leadership***

## Thank You!