# Presentation: 359201

## Science Policy, Budgets and Politics: What the Future May Hold

**Michael S. Lubell**
***Chairman, Physics Department***
***CCNY, New York, NY***
***and***
***Director of Public Affairs***
***American Physical Society, Washington, DC***
***BESAC Meeting, December 6, 2004***

## Lessons from the Election

- The Five Hot Issues Based on Exit Polls
- Terrorism		Bush
- 		Iraq War		Bush/Kerry
- 		Economy and Jobs	Bush/Kerry
- 		Health Care		Kerry
- 		Moral Values		Bush, Bush, Bush
- Post Election Issues Poll Results
- National Security
- Domestic Issues: Economy, Jobs, Education, Health
- Moral Values		25%!!!

## Science’s Image

- Elitist
- Arrogant
- Liberal
- Democrat
- Out of Touch with Middle America
- Enemy of the Bush Administration – Cuts Both Ways

## Science the Enemy of the Bush Administration

- Kyoto Protocols
- ABM Treaty
- Stem Cell Research
- Evolution vs. Creationism
- The Union of Concerned Scientists Reports
- Scientists for Change

## Building Bridges

- To the Public
- More than 85 percent of people polled believe that science is beneficial
- But only 20 percent people polled name jobs and the economy as a principal benefit
- Fewer than 10 percent can name any place where research is performed

## Building Bridges

- To the White House
- Repair the damage
- Speak the language
- Engage industrial allies
- Encourage conservative scientists to speak out

## The Budgetary Challenges

- Structural deficit (FY04: $413 b unified $575 b on-budget)
- Historic current accounts deficit ($50 b/mo; 5.6% of GDP)
- Foreign ownership of federal debt (92% during last 4 yrs)
- The sinking dollar
- Entitlement pressures – Social Security & Medicare
- Tax cuts
- Iraq war
- Homeland security

## Slide 8

## Timeline for the FY 2007 Budget

- Spring 2005: OMB Guidance to Agencies
- Summer 2005: Agency Planning
- Sept. 2005: Agency Requests Submitted to OMB
- Thanksgiving 2005: OMB “Pass Backs” Sent to Agencies
- Jan. 2006: Presidential Request Finalized
- Monday, Feb. 6, 2006: Presidential Budget Submitted to Congress
- April 15, 2006: Budget Resolution Passed by Congress – Or Not!
- Spring and Summer 2006: 13 Appropriations Bills Passed by House
- Spring and Summer 2006: 13 Appropriations Bills Passed by Senate
- Summer 2006: 13 Appropriations Bills Conferenced
- Sept. 30, 2006: 13 Appropriations Bills Passed and Signed into Law
- Oct. 1, 2006: Start of FY 2007

## Slide 10

## Slide 11

## The Inside Story of the FY 05 Budget

- DOE Champions: Hobson, Visclosky, Biggert, Domenici, Reid, Alexander, Bingaman
- The NSF Squeeze: Veterans and Moon-Mars
- Evils and Benefits of an Omnibus Bill

## Slide 13

## Slide 14

## Science Messages

- Economic Growth and Jobs
- Competitiveness
- National Security
- Health Care
- High Tech Workforce

## Benchmarking the Future

- Patents
- High-Tech Industry Output
- R & D Spending
- Publications
- Student Enrollments

## Slide 17

## Slide 18

## Slide 19

## Slide 20

## Physics Review Submissions

## Graduate Students in Engineering, Physical Sciences,  Math & Computer Sciences in U.S. Institutions

**Graduate Students in Engineering, Physical Sciences,  Math & Computer Sciences in U.S. Institutions**

## Students and Federal Funding

- 0

- 10000

- 20000

- 30000

- 40000

- 50000

- 60000

- 70000

- 80000

- 0

- 20000

- 40000

- 60000

- 80000

- 100000

- 120000

- 140000

- 160000

- 180000

- 1955

- 1960

- 1965

- 1975

- 1985

- 1995

- 1970

- 1980

- 1990

- 2000

**Students and Federal Funding**

- Federal R&D, $M , Non-Biomed
- (Constant 1996 Dollars**)**

- Bachelor’s Degrees in Physical** **Sciences, Math and Engineering

**Year**

- Budget Data: Table D in National Patterns of Research and Development Resources:  2000 Data Update (NSF Pub 01-309), National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Also, the NIH Almanac (NIH Pub. 01-5), National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, 2001.

- Student Data: Science and Engineering Degrees 1966-1998 (NSF Pub 01-325), National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, 2001.  Pre-1966 data: Science and Engineering Degrees:  1950-80.  A Source Book.  Special Edition. National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA, 1982.

- Dollars

- Students

- Mayo, Bruggeman, and Sargent (2002)

## What can we do?

- Engage the public – all elements
- Get political – both parties
- Use our power in numbers — we’re very large