# Presentation: 434819

## Proposed Approach for Generation Assumptions for 2015 Reference Case

**Proposed Approach for Generation Assumptions for 2015 Reference Case**
** **
**SSG-WI Technical Support Group Meeting**
**July 13, 2005**
**Angela Tanghetti--CEC/Mary Johannis--BPA**

## Overview of CEC Approach to Forecasting Resources

- Study Region – Topology
- Assumptions & Forecast Methodology
- Peak and Energy
- Resource Assumptions
- 		Renewable
- 		Fossil
- Transmission Assumptions

- July 13, 2005

**Notes:**
Today I am going to provide a quick overview of the Summer 2005 outlooks for the state, CA ISO Control Area and two geographic regions of  the CA ISO.

I will then review our resource assumptions to include outages, transmission congestion and net imports. 

Net imports potentially account for about 20% of California’s resource mix.  I will discuss what impact dry hydro conditions in the northwest will have on California.

I will conclude by taking care of some accounting issues by explaining why the two regional tables do not add up to the CA ISO table at first glance.

## Topology Used To Describe CEC’s Version of the WECC

- July 13, 2005

**Notes:**
California typically reaches its peak in August

Statewide includes all CA ISO utilities, LADWP, Burbank, Glendale, IID, Far North and East Sierra and the Expanded SMUD Control area (which includes Redding Roseville and WAPA).

1-in-2 resource margins look pretty good on a statewide basis. 

1-in-10 resource margins fall below 7% without considering DR programs, but are about where you expect during hot  weather conditions.

## Assumptions & Forecast Methodology Peak and Energy Forecasts

- California
- 	Forecast is developed by the CEC
- Regions Outside California
- 	Purchased from Global Energy Solutions
- 	Source of this purchased forecast is basically publicly available information that has been “scrubbed”

- July 13, 2005

**Notes:**
CA ISO is also August peaking however little variation from July through early September.

Again, 1-in-2 margins appear adequate and 1-in-10 margins fall below 7% and could result in a CA ISO declaring a Stage 2 emergency.

## Assumptions & Forecast Methodology Resource Assumptions

- Make sure you have the existing set of resources correct
- Consider RPS and other renewables first
- California - 20%by 2010 (assume 20% level sustained through 2016)
- Arizona – 1.1% between 2007-2012, 60% solar set aside
- Colorado – 3% by 2007, 6% by 2011 and 10% by 2015
- Montana – recently passed
- Renewables have shorter construction lead time

- July 13, 2005

**Notes:**
CA ISO is also August peaking however little variation from July through early September.

Again, 1-in-2 margins appear adequate and 1-in-10 margins fall below 7% and could result in a CA ISO declaring a Stage 2 emergency.

## CEC Renewable Assumptions For the WECC

- July 13, 2005

## Assumptions & Forecast Methodology Resource Assumptions

- Fossil Resource Additions Prior to 2009
- Construction lead times limit what is available to serve load prior to this time period
- Rely on CEC Siting Office for resources within California
- Rely on trade press, utility IRPs, other state’s energy agencies and regional planning groups

- July 13, 2005

**Notes:**
CA ISO is also August peaking however little variation from July through early September.

Again, 1-in-2 margins appear adequate and 1-in-10 margins fall below 7% and could result in a CA ISO declaring a Stage 2 emergency.

## Assumptions & Forecast Methodology Resource Assumptions

- 4. Fossil Resource Additions 2009 and beyond
- Balancing the demand forecast with an “appropriate” amount of supply
- Post California deregulation the WECC supply scenario appeared most stable during 1999.
- Fossil resources added to meet supply after 2009 based on 1999 reserve levels by transmission region

- July 13, 2005

**Notes:**
CA ISO is also August peaking however little variation from July through early September.

Again, 1-in-2 margins appear adequate and 1-in-10 margins fall below 7% and could result in a CA ISO declaring a Stage 2 emergency.

## Assumptions & Forecast Methodology Resource Assumptions2005-2016 Dependable MWsCEC Staff Estimate Spring 2005

| WECC |      45,468  |  |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Renewable |        8,963  | 20% |
| Gas |      28,759  | 63% |
| Coal |        7,746  | 17% |

- July 13, 2005

## 2015 Reference Case(s)

- CEC Gas Study Incremental Resources between 2008 and 2015 = Starting Point
- Convene meetings of State PUCs/ Energy Offices and Sub-regional Planning Groups to make final decision on incremental resources, where located and generation attributes
- Possibly use already scheduled SPG Meetings to make these decisions

- July 13, 2005

## Slide 11

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## Slide 12

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## Slide 13

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## Slide 14

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## Slide 15

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## Slide 16

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