# Presentation: 252977

## IPCC WGII Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report

**Cynthia Rosenzweig**
**CLA, Chapter 1: Assessment of Observed Changes and Reponses in Natural and Managed Systems **
**NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies at Columbia University**

**US CCSP Conference**
**November 14, 2005**
**Martin Parry, WGII Co-Chair, and WGII Technical Support Office**

## Implementation Status

***Y******ear******	******Date******	******	******Activity***
- 2003	Apr-Nov	***Outline Development and Approval ***
- 	Sep		***1******st****** Lead Author meeting***
- 2004	Dec - Feb	Informal review of 0th draft
- 2005	Mar		***2******nd****** Lead Author meeting***
-    Jul - Nov	Expert review of 1st draft *
- --------------------------------------------------------------------- **Present**
- 2006	Jan		***3******rd****** Lead Author meeting***
- 2006	May - Jul	Govt and Expert review of 2nd draft *
- 2006	Sept		***4******th****** Lead Author meeting***
- 2007	Dec - Feb	Final Government review of 3rd draft
- 2007	Apr		***Approval by WGII Plenary******	***

*** Review Editors ensure that expert and government review comments**
** ****are properly considered and appropriately actioned**

## WG II AR4 Guiding Principles Agreed by Plenary

**Focus on the assessment of **_**NEW**_** knowledge since 2001 TAR**
**Be more concise – 2/3 TAR, 700 pp.  instead of 1000 pp.**
**Make better connections to WGI and WGIII.**
**Expand use of literature in non-English journals, reports, etc**
_**Maintain continued principles from prior assessments**_**, *****viz*****:**
**      ****a) To be ‘policy- relevant’; **_**not**_** policy-prescriptive.**
**      ****b) To aim for a balanced coverage which is integrated, ****	****accessible, and understandable; NB: Balance in WGII ****	****means equal treatment of ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ effects**
**      ****c) To be conducted by the most able scientists, from all ****	****regions.**

## AR4 Policy Issues and Science Questions

**KEY POLICY ISSUES**
_**Avoiding certain key effects**_
_**Developing effective adaptation**_
_**Seeking sustainable development in a future with climate change**_
_**Meeting the challenge of climate change and variability now**_

**SCIENCE QUESTIONS**
**Where are the **_**key vulnerabilities**_** – regions, sectors?**
**What are **_**rates/magnitudes/**_
**	**_**types**_** of climate change that could lead to these effects?**
**Extent/limits of adaptive **_**capacity**_**?**
**Its **_**effectiveness and**_** **_**cost**_**?  (especially **_**vs.**_** mitigation)**
**How does vulnerability and adaptive capacity vary under **_**different paths of economic/social development?**_
**Extent to which early effects are **_**detectable, now**_**? **
**Evidence for (and **_**measurement**_** of) **_**effectiveness**_** of (current) adaptation?**

## OUTLINE FOR WORKING GROUP II: IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORTCLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY

**Summary for Policymakers + Technical Summary**
** ****Introduction**
**I.  ASSESSMENT OF OBSERVED CHANGES**
**1.  Assessment of Observed Changes in Natural and Managed Systems **
**II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS AND SYSTEMS **
**2.  New Methods and Scenarios of the Future**
**3.  ****Fresh Water Resources and their Management **
**4.  Ecosystems and their Services **
**5.  Food, Fibre, Forestry, and Fisheries **
**6.  Coasts and Low-lying Areas **
**7.  Industry, Settlement, and Society**
**8.  Human Health **
**III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: REGIONS**
** ****9: Africa,  10: Asia,  11: Australia and New Zealand,  12: Europe,  13: Latin America**
**14: North America,  15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic),  16: Small Islands**
**IV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES TO IMPACTS**
**17. Assessment of Adaptation Options, Capacity and Practice **
**18. Assessment of Inter-relationships between Adaptation and Mitigation**
**19. Assessing  key vulnerabilities ****and the risk from climate change**** **
**20. Perspectives on Climate Change and Sustainability**

## Cross-Cutting Themes in WG2 AR4 Outline

**Summary for Policymakers + Technical Summary**
** ****Introduction**
**I.  ASSESSMENT OF OBSERVED CHANGES**
**1.  Assessment of Observed Changes in Natural and Managed Systems **
**II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS AND SYSTEMS **
**2.  New Methods and Scenarios of the Future**
**3.  ****Fresh Water Resources and their Management **
**4.  Ecosystems and their Services **
**5.  Food, Fibre, Forestry, and Fisheries **
**6.  Coasts and Low-lying Areas **
**7.  Industry, Settlement, and Society**
**8.  Human Health **
**III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION:REGIONS**
** ****9: Africa,  10: Asia,  11: Australia and New Zealand,  12: Europe,  13: Latin America**
**14: North America,  15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic),  16: Small Islands**
**IV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES TO IMPACTS**
**17. Assessment of Adaptation Options, Capacity and Practice **
**18. Assessment of Inter-relationships between Adaptation and Mitigation**
**19. Assessing  key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change**
**20. Perspectives on Climate Change and Sustainability**
**Note: The themes of ****‘Technology’**** and ****‘Risk and Uncertainty’**** and ****Sustainable Development**** are sections in**_** each chapter (**_**see chapter guide boxes**_**)**_

## Section I. Assessment of Observed Changes

**Relationship of these to regional**
**	****and global climate change and **
**	****other stresses, e.g., land-use change**
**What these relationships tell us about:**
**     ****a) sensitivity vs resilience of different systems, places, sectors, **
**     ****b) what time lags in response, etc**
**     ****c) the nature of  current adaptation and its efficacy**
**     ****d) how this empirical knowledge can help improve our modelling of future impacts/adaptation**

## Section II: Assessment of Future Impacts and Adaptation in Systems and Sectors

**TAR Systems/Sectors**
- Water
- Ecosystems (incl. food)
- Coastal and marine
- Settlement, energy, industry
- Insurance, financial
- Human health

**AR4 Systems/Sectors**
- Water
- Ecosystems
- _Food, fibre, forestry, fisheries_
- Coasts and low-lying areas
- Industry, settlement and _society, incl insurance/finance_
- Human health

**Keeping regions and sectors broadly the same enables **
**assessment of NEW knowledge compared with TAR**

## Section III: Assessment Future Impacts and Adaptation of Effects: Regions

**Analysis of inter-GCM consistency in regional precipitation change**

****** ****WGII Regions**

**Linkage to **
**WGI Regions ******** **

**IPCC WGI TAR, 2001**
**IPCC WGII TAR, 2001**

**Section III: Assessment Future Impacts and Adaptation of Effects: Regions**

## What do we know about key impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability for different sectors, regions, and development pathways?

**Yield change (%)**

- +
- 0
- -

- N. India

- S. Europe

- N. England

- Local food production ?
-  Regional food security ?
-    Global food security ?

- 0.5

- 1.0

- Deg C

-  SRES
-  MEA
-     GEO-3

## Summary Assessment for each Sectoral and Regional Chapter by Development Pathway, where the Available Information Allows

- Pathway / level of development, governance and / or vulnerability

- e.g. 	SRES
- 	Millennium
- 	GEO-3

- e.g. 	SRES
- 	Millennium
- 	GEO-3

- e.g. 	SRES
- 	Millennium
- 	GEO-3

- e.g. 	SRES
- 	Millennium
- 	GEO-3

- T I M E   H O R I Z O N

- NEAR
- c. 2020s

- MEDIUM
- c. 2050s

- LONGER
- c. 2080s

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation potential

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation

- Summary of expected impacts and adaptation

## Section IV: Assessment of Responses to Impacts

- What more is now known about _adaptation_: especially options, costs, barriers
- How much do we know about the trade-offs and complementarities between _adaptation and mitigation_
- What we know about the risk of _key impacts_ and its relationship to stabilisation/mitigation.
- What conclusions can we draw from current knowledge regarding climate change in the context of other stresses and its implications for _sustainability_.

## What do we know about the connections between mitigation, adaptation  and  impacts?

**No action**

**All**
**mitigation**

**All adaptation**

**Mix of**
**mitigate/**
** ****adapt/**
**    ****impact**

**Cost of**
**adaptation**

**less**

**more**

- (Holdridge diagram)

## http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/index.html

**ipcc-wg2@metoffice.gov.uk**

**To participate in reviews:**

## Section II: Assessment of future impacts and adaptation in Systems and Sectors

*Content guide for chapters 3 to 8 in Section II:*
- 1. Scope, key issues, summary of TAR conclusions, specific methods
- 2. Current sensitivity/vulnerability: to weather and climate; and to other stresses; current adaptation
- 3. Assumptions about future trends: climate, development, technology, etc.
- 4. Key magnitudes/rates of impacts and future vulnerabilities; costs and other economic aspects
- 5. Adaptation: practices, options and constraints
- 6. Implications for sustainable development
- 7. Key uncertainties, unknowns, research gaps and priorities

## Section III: Assessment future impacts and adaptation of effects: Regions

*Content guide for chapters 9 to 16 in Section III:*
- 1. Summary of knowledge assessed in TAR
- 2. Current sensitivity/vulnerability: to weather and climate; and to other stresses; current adaptation
- 3. Assumptions about future trends: climate, development, technology, etc.
- 4. Summary of expected impacts: key vulnerabilities and their regional variation
- 5. Adaptation: regional differences in practices, options and constraints
- 6. Implications for sustainable development
- 7. Key uncertainties, unknowns, research gaps and priorities