# Presentation: 115670

## Slide 1

## SUSTAINABILITY:	ASSUMPTION, 		HYPOTHESIS, 			OXYMORON?

**James H. Brown **
**Department of Biology**
**University of New Mexico**
**Mojave Desert Science Symposium **
**November 2004**

## Benchmarks:
Ecological Society of America: 
1998 Lubchenco et al. The sustainable biosphere initiative 
2004 Palmer et al. Ecological science and sustainability for a crowded planet
Science:
2001 Kates et al. Sustainability science
2003 McMichael et al. New visions for addressing sustainability
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, USA:
2003 Clark and Dickson. Sustainability science: the emerging research paradigm
Books:
1997 Daily. Nature’s services: societal dependence on natural ecosystems
2003 Hall. Quantifying sustainable development
2003 Millenium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and human well-being 

***Ecological Society of America*****:**** **
**1998 Lubchenco et al. *****The sustainable biosphere initiative***** **
**2004 Palmer et al. *****Ecological science and sustainability for a crowded planet***
***Science:***
**2001 Kates et al. *****Sustainability science***
**2003 McMichael et al. *****New visions for addressing sustainability***
***Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, USA*****:**
**2003 Clark and Dickson. *****Sustainability science: the emerging research paradigm***
***Books*****:**
**1997 Daily. Nature’s services: *****societal dependence on natural ecosystems***
**2003 Hall. *****Quantifying sustainable development***
**2003 Millenium Ecosystem Assessment. *****Ecosystems and human well-being***** **

## Concepts of Sustainability

**Long history in the environmental sciences**
**Sustainable biosphere:**
**     ****maintenance of “ecological goods and services” to**
**     ****support human population, ecosystem function, and **
**	**** ****biodiversity **
**Sustainable development:**
**	****  ****economic progress without social or environmental **
**	****  ****damage**
**Sustainable agriculture:**
**	****  ****food and fiber production for human use**
**Sustained yield of natural resources:**
**	****  ****fisheries, wildlife, timber, livestock forage**

## What is meant by  sustainability?

**Ecological system: **
** ****productivity**
** ****biodiversity**
** ****landscape **
**    ****heterogeneity**
** ****human population **
**    ****and economy**

**Equilibrial exchange:**
** ****energy**
** ****materials**
** ****organisms**
** ****humans**

**Input subsidies:**
** ****energy**
** ****materials**
** ****organisms**
** ****humans**

**Output losses:**
** ****energy, materials, organisms**

## Sustainable   biosphere?

**Ecological system: **
** ****6 billion people**
** ****modern technological **
**      ****economy **
** ****agricultural **
**      ****productivity**
** ****biodiversity**
** “****ecosystem services”**

**Input subsidies:**
** ****fossil fuel energy**

**Output losses:**
** ****heat **

**Degrading transformations:**
** ****dispersion of concentrated materials**
** ****production of toxins and pollutants **

## Sustainable   development?

**Ecological system: **
** ****improved standard**
**      ****of living**
** ****modern technological **
**      ****economy **
** ****agricultural **
**      ****productivity**
** ****biodiversity**
** “****ecosystem services”**

**Input subsidies:**
** ****fossil fuel energy**
** ****material resources**

**Output losses:**
** ****products**
** ****pollutants**

**Degrading transformations:**
** ****dispersion of concentrated materials**
** ****production of toxins and pollutants **

## Sustainable   agriculture?

**Goals: **
** ****food and fiber **
**      ****production **
** ****primary production **
** ****nutrient cycling **

**Input subsidies:**
** ****fossil fuel energy**
** ****fertilizers**
** ****water**
** ****pesticides**
** ****human, animal, and **
**      ****machine labor**

**Output losses:**
** ****harvested products**
** ****soil erosion**
** ****pollutants**

**Degrading transformations:**
** ****altered soil and water **
**         ****regime**
** ****biodiversity loss **

##   Sustainable yield     of  natural resources?

**Ecological system: **
** ****resource  **
**      ****productivity**
** “****ecosystem function”**
** ****biodiversity**

**Input subsidies:**
** ****fossil fuel energy**
** ****human and **
**      ****machine labor**

**Output losses:**
** ****natural products**
**     ****timber/fish/meat**

**Degrading transformations:**
** ****diverse “environmental impacts” **

## Assessment of Sustainability

**Sustainable biosphere with 6 billion humans?**
**      ****oxymoron**
**	****  ****energy subsidy from finite supply of fossil fuels **
**Sustainable development?**
**	****  ****oxymoron**
**	****  ****inputs of energy and material subsidies **
**	****  ****outputs of pollutants **
**Sustainable agriculture?**
**	****  ****hypothesis**
**	****  ****even with energy, material, and labor subsidies?**
**Sustained yields of natural resources?**
**	****  ****hypothesis**
**	****  ****with minimal energy and labor subsidies?**

## Example: Sustainable ecology and ranching on the borderlands 

**Place:**** **
**	****Malpai Borderlands: ~ 2500 km****2**** in New Mexico and Arizona adjoining U.S.-Mexico Border**
**Stakeholders:**** **
**	****Malpai Borderlands Group: ~20 ranching families, Government agencies and NGOs, scientific advisors**
**Goals:**** **
**	****Ecologically and economically sustainable livestock ranching**
**	****Preserve open space, biodiversity, ecological processes**
**Threats**
**	****Rural subdivision**
**	****Overgrazing**
**	****Endangered species**

## Slide 12

## Example: sustainable livestock grazing on Malpai Borderlands

**Example: sustainable livestock grazing on Malpai Borderlands**

## Slide 14

## Rural subdivision

**Rural subdivision**

## Overgrazing

**Overgrazing**

## Ridge-nosed 

**Ridge-nosed **
**rattlesnake**

## Jaguar

**Jaguar**

## Chiricahua

**Chiricahua**
**Leopard frog**

## The model: Ecology dictated by four primary processes: 

**1) Spatial variation in topography, geology and soils**
**2) Temporal variation in climate and weather**
**3) Grazing by large herbivores (now mostly domestic livestock)**
**4) Fire**

**Adaptive management tomanipulate two  processes: **

**1) Livestock grazing **
**2) Fire**

## Spatial variation in 

**Spatial variation in **
**topography, geology and soils**

## Temporal variation 

**Temporal variation **
**in climate and weather**

## Megaherbivore grazing

**Megaherbivore**** ****grazing**

## Fire

**Fire**

## Successes to date 

**Initiated ecological and economic ranching practices**
**	****Adoption of adaptive management practices**
**	****Natural and prescribed burns **
**	****Permanent vegetation monitoring plots to track changes **
**	****Grass bank to prevent overgrazing during droughts**
**	****Experimentation with cattle breeds and marketing **
**Preservation of open space**
**	****Conservation leases to prevent subdivision into rural ranchettes**
**	****Alternative livelihoods: biotourism, photo and hunting safaris**
**Limited loss of biodiversity**
**	****reintroduction/recovery of many endangered species (bighorn, prairie dog, bison, jaguar, turkey)**
**	****aquatic and riparian ecosystems: continued loss of native species and invasions of exotic species**

## Long-term prognosis? Most uncertainties are external

**“****Sustainable” ranching at local to regional scales requires energy, material, and economic subsidies**
**	****Fossil fuels to power vehicles, machinery and households**
**	****Income from livestock and other commodities**
**Development pressure from growing populations in Tucson, Sierra Vista, and surrounding areas**
**Changing livestock markets, material and transportation costs, taxation and societal incentives**
**External threats to biodiversity**
**	****Reduction or loss of source populations, habitat and dispersal corridors in surrounding regions****	**

**Time frame for “sustainability”?**
**50 years?**

## Bottom line (regional to local scale): 

**Some degree of sustainability of is possible, BUT IT WILL REQUIRE**
** ****Consideration of ecological and human **
**    ****factors**
** ****Energy, material and economic subsidies**
** ****Continual monitoring and adaptive**
**     ****management**
** ****Protection from degrading external **
**     ****processes**

## Bottom line (national to global scale): 

**Sustainability of human civilization with current population and standard of living is threatened by **
**“****five horsemen of the apocalypse”**

** ****energy**
** ****disease**
** ****food       **
** ****water**
** ****pollution**

**but energy is by far the most important – and**
**global oil supply is being depleted**

## Slide 29