# Presentation: 125586

## U.S. Climate Reference Network Developments  

- U.S. Climate Reference Network Developments
**Research-To-Operations: **
**Midway To NOAA’s Model Climate Monitoring Network **
- Presentation for the
- Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services
**Dr. Michael R. Helfert**
**NOAA/NESDIS**
**National Climatic Data Center**
**May 3, 2005**** **

## 	The Question, Principles, & Network
Performance Measures, Nat’l & Regional
Sensor Suites/Instruments
Site Survey Primer
Cross-Network Transfer Functions
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Products and Product Development
Where’s the Information?
Where We Want To Be in 2010.

**	**_**The Question, Principles, & Network**_
**Performance Measures, Nat’l & Regional**
**Sensor Suites/Instruments**
**Site Survey Primer**
**Cross-Network Transfer Functions**
**-------------------------------------------------------------------**
**Products and Product Development**
**Where’s the Information?**
**Where We Want To Be in 2010.**

**Climate Reference Network**

##  How has the climate of the U.S. changed over the past 50 years on national, regional and local levels? 

*** ******How has the climate of the U.S. changed over the past 50 years on national, regional and local levels******?****** ***

_**Just what is the Climate Reference Network?**_
- An observing system that 50 years from now can, with the highest degree of confidence, answer the question...

**Notes:**
The vision of the USCRN program is to provide an observing.....

##        Basic Principles of the CRN		   	

**N**ational **C**limatic **D**ata **C**enter

**       ****Basic Principles of the CRN****	****	****   ****	**
** **U. S. _Benchmark_ Network for Temp/Precip
-  Adheres to the “Climate Monitoring Principles”
-  Satisfy Requirements of Observing Systems
-  Anchors the U. S. Historical Climate Network (HCN)
-  Strong Climate Science & Research Component
-  Long-Term Stability of Observing Site (50+ years)
-  Sensors Annually Calibrated to Traceable Standards
-  Network Performance Monitoring - Hourly and Daily
-  Climatically representative & stable station sites   	     	   using rigorous, systematic site selection

## Program Status

**70 Commissioned Stations operational of 114 planned.**
**Data and Metadata for all commissioned sites on-line.**
**FY05 USCRN budget 0%; 50% funding recovered for O&M.**
**Revised Performance Measures necessitated (T&P).**
**FY06-08: 42 stations planned, budgets pending.**
**108 of the 114 station sites have been identified; **
**       ****90 approved; 18 in review; last 6 site surveys underway.**
**Outyr interest – AL, PA, CA, NC, GCOS, IPY, & DOD.**
**FY2005 Non-CONUS stations to HI & AK (GCOS).**
**Outyr GCOS deploys possible: Great American Cordillera,**
**	****   ****Caribbean, Africa, IPY Arctic Ring; Antarctic region,         **
**	****   ****Europe, Equatorial & WPAC, Himalayas, 7 Sisters Rgn,**
**	****   ****Kamchatka-Kuriles****.**

**Notes:**
(Read the slide)  During the pre-commissioning phase we are re-doubling our efforts to have a community of users access the data and metadata as we get ready to put everything on-line for public access.

## Annual Maintenance Visit

- Exchange datalogger
- Exchange one PRT
- Exchange one aspirated shield fan
- Exchange anemometer
- Exchange pyranometer
- Calibrate precipitation gauges
- Complete maintenance checklist
- Take compass-platte photographs
- Bring station up to current configuration

## 114 CONUS Geographic Locations Required 

 Captures 98% of variance in monthly temperature, 
	         95% in annual precipitation for CONUS.
 Average annual error <0.1oC for temperature, 
            <1.5% for precipitation
 Trend “errors” <0.05oC per decade
 IPCC: projects warming of 0.1-0.3oC/decade and
	 precipitation changes of 0–2%/decade for CONUS.

-  Captures 98% of variance in monthly temperature,
- 	         95% in annual precipitation for CONUS.
-  Average annual error <0.1oC for temperature,
-             <1.5% for precipitation
-  Trend “errors” <0.05oC per decade
-  IPCC: projects warming of 0.1-0.3oC/decade and
- 	 precipitation changes of 0–2%/decade for CONUS.

**Performance Measures**

## Determine the Actual Long-term Changes in Temperature and Precipitation of the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) 

**Determine the Actual Long-term Changes in Temperature and Precipitation of the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) **

- Uncertainty of Twentieth Century CONUS **precipitation trends** is large (5% of total annual precipitation), as calculated trends range from 38.1 to 77.2 mm/Century. Goal is to reduce USCRN trend uncertainty from 19.2 (FY04) to 7.7 (FY08) mm per century (reduction equates to 40% of water in Great Lakes). Current CONUS **temperature trend** uncertainty (0.1o C per century, FY04) will be further reduced, enabling
- the capture of any acceleration or deceleration of trends now estimated to be increasing by about 0.2o C per decade
- since mid-1970s.

**FY2005 Target**: Capture more than 96.9% and 91.1% of the temperature and precipitation trends.

- April 05 Actual

## Planned CRN Stations

**Planned CRN Stations**
**   ****(September  2008)**

## Regional Impact

**Preliminary analysis (Dr. Bomin Sun)****Significance level of a linear temperature trend (1951-2002)** **Red: upward trend      Blue: downward trend**

**Notes:**
The CRN network is now budgeted to a size of 100 stations – which will allow us to explain the variance in the climate signal on a national level.  Measuring the significance of the climate signal on a Regional Level requires a network of  300-400 stations.  A preliminary analysis of the regional impact (Bomin Sun) indicates some lesser impact in Texas, for example than in Florida.

## Minimum Observing Requirements

**Minimum Observing Requirements**
**  ****Primary Measurements**
**	****Air Temperature **
**	****Precipitation Accumulation**
***  *****Supporting Measurements**
**	****Wind Speed**
**	****Global Solar Radiation**
**	****Ground Surface (Skin) Temperature**
**---------------------------------------------------------------------------**
**	****Relative Humidity **
**	****Soil Moisture & Soil Temperature**** **
**	****Barometric Pressure**

**Sensor Suites/Instruments**

## Sensor Suites/Instruments

**Sensor Suites/Instruments**

**Geonor and Small DFIR w/Single Alter**

## Sensor Suites/Instruments

**Sensor Suites/Instruments**

**Primary and Supporting Sensors**

## Sensor Suites/Instruments

**Sensor Suites/Instruments**

**Inhomogeneity Adjustment Issue**

## Site Survey Primer

**Site Survey Primer**

**Kestersen CA site looking north from south.  Road along canal is elevated about 5 feet.  Standing in Bureau of Reclamation land.**
**Controlled Superfund Site for next 200+ yrs.**

## Major Principles of Climate Station Siting

- Site is representative of climate of region.
- Minimal microclimatic influences.
- Long-term (50-100 year) land tenure
- Minimal prospects for human development
- Avoids agriculture, major water bodies, 	major forested areas, basin terrain.
- Accessible for calibration & maintenance.
- Stable Host Agency or Organization.
- Follows WMO Climate Station Siting Guidelines

## WMO Standards

**WMO Guide to Climatological Practices*****   "The Siting of Climatological Stations" Chapter 4 paragraph 2.4, pages 45-50.***
**CRN Site Information Handbook, CRN Survey Checklist, CRN Scoring Sheets.**
***-------------------------------------------------------------------***
**WMO Initial Guidance To Obtain Representative Meteorological Observations At Urban Sites**
**	****TD-1250, 47 pp.  2004.**

## Slide 18

**Notes:**
Agate Fossil Beds National Monument, Western Nebraska.   A type specimen short-grass steppe ecotone

## Slide 19

**Notes:**
St. Mary’s, Glacier National Park, Western Montana.

## Site Survey Primer

**Site Survey Primer**

**Avoiding Microclimates**

**Pinnacles RAWS site looking to east from west.  Uncontrollable burns on 2-5 yr cycle.   High creosote chaparral environment with dry grasses understory.**

## Schwardt Lab Site,40m distant, height 8mMinimum of 80 mtrs separation is needed.

**Site Survey Primer**

**Avoiding Microclimates**

**Schwardt Lab Site,40m distant, height 8m****Minimum of 80 mtrs separation is needed****.**

***Rock Springs, Emergin Corn Crop <10 m away.  Crop annually rotates w/Soy & Wheat.******180 mtrs separation from non-irrig agriculture******is required***

## co-location with Cooperative Station  (HCN)

**Pacific Northwest Federal Area, **
**co-location with Cooperative Station****  ****(HCN)**

## USCRN  Stations

**USCRN  Stations**
**September 2004  (69 stations)**

**Installed Paired Locations**

**Installed Single Locations**

## Planned  USCRN  Stations 

**Planned  USCRN  Stations **
**at end of 2008  (114* stations)**

*** Does not Include Alaska, Canada, Hawaii, & GCOS stations**

**Installed Paired Locations**

**Installed Single Locations**

- As of April 26, 2005

## Cross-Network Transfer Functions

**Cross-Network Transfer Functions**

**Cooperative Observer Network (~10,000 Stations)**

## USCRN Site Survey 10/19/04 Pasture 3 Site

***USCRN Site Survey 10/19/04 Pasture 3 Site***

## USHCN Site, 1909, at Cottonwood Headquarters(also one of Helmut Landsberg’s 21 RCS’s)

**Notes:**
One of Helmut Landsberg’s original Reference Climatological Stations dating to 1948, now an HCN with an evap pan and a Fischer-Porter as well as a standard 8” gauge.  Cottonwood, SD.

## Dinosaur National Monument CRN Site w/co-locations

**RAWS Site**

**CRN Site**

**COOP Site**

**Dinosaur National Monument CRN Site w/co-locations**

**Notes:**
Network interoperability is an important item.  We identify other observing system in the vicinity of every CRN as we look towards CRN data becoming a reference point for the operations of these other network and also as we develop our transfer functions to stations with long term records.

-      **Installed Pair    (14)**
**       ****Installed Single (59)**
**Alaskan & Canadian Stations (3)**
**    ****not included in portrayal.****	**
**       **

**USCRN Network Configuration **
**As of May 4, 2005**

**(May 4, 2005****)**

## CRN Data Management Activities:Flow of Data from Station To Users

**NCDC**

- Communications Network

**Field Sites**

- Instrument Suite

- Communications Device

- Processing Unit

## PRODUCTS

**Ingesting into routine Drought Monitoring and Climate Monitoring activities & products at NCDC**
**Prelim Normals (3-Yr) being used for older CRN’s**
**Transfer functions for up to 3-Yr POR being run on routine basis.  Updated each successive yr.**
**Forthcoming Energy/Agriculture Applications by using Traditional vs 5-min/hourly corrected HDD/CDD & mean weighted max/min T’s for new LCD.  Both LCD portrayals will be user accessible.**
**CRN Data being now used in TempVal & PrecipVal    **
**	****   ****(Primary NCDC QA/QC Routine for ASOS, COOP, MMTS, ISD, etc**.
**	****           – ****in other words, it’s already there, you just don’t see it...)**

## Pushing Too Fast – an Experimental Product with 

**Pushing Too Fast – an Experimental Product with **
**Insufficient ****	****POR and Insufficient Station Density:**
**Tmax Anomaly of July 2004**

**oC**

**              **

**USCRN  CONUS Deployments**
**With Network Co-locations***

***Colocations witin 10 km.**
**   ****Data as of April 26, 2054**

** ****No Co-location Known**

** ****Coop or HCN Co-located**

** ****Coop + Another Network Co-located (SURFRAD, RAWS, NADP, etc.)**

**NADP Co-located**

**RAWS/SCAN Co-located**

**SURFRAD Co-located**

## 	  Estimating CRN  T & P  Normals 

**1.  Places current USCRN observations into **
**       ****historical perspective for operational   **
**       ****climate monitoring activities.  **
**2.  Allows inter-network transfer function   **
** ****	****    ****determination (e.g., CRN <–> COOP)**
**  **
**3.  Provides stable & leveraged data core for      **
**	****   ****NOAA & other agency climate products**
**	****   **
_**STABLE, HIGH-CONFIDENCE CRN Normals**_** require a **
**	****min of a 5 yrs POR; 10 yrs POR desired.**
**Shorter POR’s produce poor-quality, low-confidence transfer functions & normals.  Definitely not one of our goals...**

## USCRN Estimated Temperature Normals Product  and Error Ranges, 

**1 – 3 yrs Period-of-Record**
_**Example, October T normals, oCelsius**_

| Stations | Estimated normals
Tmin    Tmax      Tmean | Errors
Tmin   Tmax  Tmean |  |   Yrs of data
 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 
Asheville
    NC | 
6.0       19.3     12.7 | 
0.24   0.22   0.17 |  | 
   3 |
| 
Old Town
    ME | 
1.4       13.4       7.3 | 
0.40   0.22   0.25 |  | 
    2 |
| 
St. Mary
    MT | 
0.5       10.4       5.3  | 
 0.44  0.32   0.37 |  | 
    1 |

## Web Access

**Web Access**

**USCRN Homepage URL:**
**http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/uscrn/**

**Notes:**
The map is available from the USCRN home page....

## 5-Yr CRN Vision

- Sufficient CRN stations deployed ( ~ 114) for capture of CONUS _National Climate T & P Signals_ for stations _*with 5-yr POR*_ for normals & extremes estimation (high-confidence products).
- Inter-network (HCN, Coop, SCAN, SNOTEL, RAWS) transfer functions give increased, homogeneous density coverage, and allow CRN to “steal time” backwards (integrated normals).
- Inter-network (esp. using CRN + ~615 “best” HCN-M) transfer functions determination will extend high-confidence T & P
-     normals sufficiently as to allow _Regional Climate T&P Signal_ determinations for all 11 U.S. Standard Climate Regions.
- Sufficient CRN data stream & confidence supports broad scientific analyses and debate of climate trends, envelopes, and extremes.
- CRN 5-minute data on-line within one hour of receipt at NCDC.
- CRN data and metadata continue to have full public access.