# Presentation: 189281

## Renewable Energy in a Global Context

**Renewable Energy in a Global Context**
**A Framework for Thought**
**A Work in Progress**

**Third Energy Analysis Forum****June 11 and 12, 2003**
**Roger Taylor**
**NREL**

## Global Costs and Benefits of Increased Use of Renewables

- Topic A		Market Implications
- Topic B		Environmental Implications
- Topic C		Energy Security Implications
- Topic D		International Development 				Implications

## Market

**Security**

**Environment**

**Development**

- Both supply & demand => Energy Economy

- Natural capital (extractive, renewable)
- as well as pollution

- Economic development
- Non-OECD, or “Gap” countries

- Global, Regional and Local
- Including energy (transport, water, food)
- Including natural disasters (hurricanes, drought)
- Including man made disasters (war)

**International Renewable Energy Playing Field**

**Energy Economy**

**Definitions**

## Energy Economy

**Governments**

**Energy Economy**

**Security**

**Environment**

**Development**

## Energy Economy

**Governments**

**Energy Economy**

**Security**

**Environment**

**Development**

**Human & **
**Societal**
**Responsibility**

## Slide 6

## Governments

**Governments**

**Energy Economy**

**Environment**

**Development**

**Security**

**Human & Social**
**Responsibility**

**Supply**

**Demand**

**Corporations**

## Governments

**Governments**

**Corporations**

**Energy Economy**

**Environment**

**Development**

**Security**

**Human & Social**
**Responsibility**

**Supply**

**Demand**

## Demand

**Demand**

## Economic development is tightly correlated with energy consumption

**Economic development is tightly correlated with energy consumption**

**GJ/capita**

**GDP($K)/capita**

**Effect of **
**Geography**

## Modern energy services require increased incomes

- World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy Agency

**Modern energy services require increased incomes**

## People want to live longer, and generally are.

**People want to live longer, and generally are.**

- National Geographic, 1998

## Large families in the developing world - part of the challenge

- National Geographic, 1998

## Urbanization

**Urbanization**

## Over 90% of the population growth 

**Over 90% of the population growth **
**will be in urban areas.**

## But much of it will look like this.

**But much of it will look like this.**

## Managing population growth will be one of the major issues if we are to manage energy growth

**Managing population growth will be one of the major issues if we are to manage energy growth**

- National Geographic, 1998

## Many developing countries have a special demographic issue

**Many developing countries have a special demographic issue**

- National Geographic, 1998

## Supply

- Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell International 2001

**Supply**

## Regional Energy Production & Consumption

**Regional Energy Production & Consumption**

## Where are the Renewables?

## Costs of Electricity with and without External Costs

| Electricity Source | Generating
Costs | External 
Costs | Total 
Costs |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Hydropower | 2.4-7.7 | 0-1 | 2.4-8.7 |
| Wind | 4.0-6.0 | 0.05-0.25 | 4.05-6.25 |
| Natural Gas
(new) | 3.4-5.0 | 1-4 | 4.4-9.0 |
| Coal/lignite
 | 4.3-4.8 | 2-15 | 6.3-19.9 |
| Biomass | 7-9 | 1-3 | 8-12 |
| Nuclear | 10-14 | 0.2-0.7 | 10.2-14.7 |
| Photovoltaics | 25-50 | 0.6 | 25.6-50.6 |

**Costs of Electricity with and without External Costs**

**Worldwatch: State of the World 2003**

## Governments

**Governments**

**Corporations**

**Energy Economy**

**Environment**

**Development**

**Security**

**Human & Social**
**Responsibility**

**Supply**

**Demand**

**Products & Services**

## Some Supply Questions?

- What are the limits to RE supply expansion?
- From a manufacturing scale-up perspective.
- From a project development & implementation perspective.
- From a grid connection and system stability perspective.
- Role of H**2** as a storage & gaseous fuel alternative
- If renewables are to play a major role, what are the most effective policies to support large commercial scale-up?
- Locally.
- Nationally.
- Internationally.

## Some Demand Questions?

- What does the future population curve look like?
- Is it possible to stabilize populations in rural areas through economic development?
- What are the best ways to manage demand growth in urban areas?
- What are the limits to energy efficiency?
- Building codes and standards?
- How to effectively deal with the inevitable peri-urban slums?

## Energy Economy

**Corporations**

**Environment**

**Development**

**Security**

**Human & Social**
**Responsibility**

**Governments**

**Supply Risks**
- Resource Limitations
- Transportation

**Price Risks**

**Conflict & Natural Disasters**

## Fossil fuel price history and future?

- World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy Agency

**Fossil fuel price history and future?**

## Resource Depletion

- Scientific American, March 1998

## Gas resource and transport issues

- World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy Agency

**Gas resource and transport issues**

## Gas resource and transport issues

**Gas resource and transport issues**

## The Pentagon’s New Map

- “But show me where globalization is thinning or just plain absent, and I will show you regions plagued by politically repressive regimes, widespread poverty and disease, routine mass murder, and—most important—the chronic conflicts that incubate the next generation of global terrorists.  These parts of the world I call the Non-Integrating Gap, or Gap.”

**The Pentagon’s New Map**
**THOMAS P.M. BARNETT, U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE**

***Esquire*****, March 2003 **

## “If we map out U.S. military responses since the end of the cold war ...  

- “If we map out U.S. military responses since the end of the cold war ...
- we have basically mapped the Non-Integrating Gap”

***Esquire*****, March 2003**
** ****MAPS BY WILLIAM MCNULTY**

## What is the role of renewables in supporting economic development and energy security?

**The premise is that peace and security come through globalization.**

***Esquire*****, March 2003**
** ****MAPS BY WILLIAM MCNULTY**

**What is the role of renewables in supporting economic development and energy security?**

## Modular, Portable Systems for Disaster Relief

**Floods, Hurricanes, Earthquakes:**
**Communications, Medical services, Clean water**

**Modular, Portable Systems for Disaster Relief**

## Renewables for Water and Sanitation in Refugee Relief

**Renewables for Water and Sanitation in Refugee Relief**

## Renewables & Security?

- Not considered

## What are some of the Energy Security Questions?

**How can renewables deployment increase national and regional energy self-reliance?**
**In electricity, in fuels**
**In urban cities, in rural areas**

**Domestic energy security requires global energy security.**
**Global and regional supply lines are susceptible to disruption.**

**Oil and gas supply is a major focus of US foreign policy.  How can renewable energy become a foreign policy tool?**
**Water supply in famine stricken areas.**
**Stockpiled, portable, emergency power, water, communications, health systems in post-conflict reconstruction.**
**Education, water & health centers in rural areas in stable, but underdeveloped regions.**
**Power and heat for rural economic development.**

## Energy Economy

**Security**

**Governments**

**Corporations**

**Environment**

**Development**

**Human & Social**
**Responsibility**

## Global Impacts

- Water/Energy Nexus
- Agriculture/Energy Nexus
- CFC Emissions, Ozone Hole
- GHG Emissions, Global Warming
**Local Impacts**
- Air Quality
- Water Quality
- Waste Disposal

**Energy Impacts on the Environment**

## Science is teaching us more about the world’s history,

**Science is teaching us more about the world’s history,**
**On the prehistoric time scale. **

- National Geographic, May 1998

## And the modern time scale.

**And the modern time scale.**

## Projections 

- Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell International 2001

**Projections **
**on the future**

## Slide 43

## ?

**?**

**550**

- What does the response curve look like for this impulse into the global energy system?

## Global warming may have huge food security implications

**Global warming may have huge food security implications**

- National Geographic

## CFC (air conditioning & propellants) release has had an impact.

**CFC ****(air conditioning & propellants)**** release has had an impact.**

## Local air pollution is a serious health problem in many cities

**Local air pollution is a serious health problem in many cities**

## Some Questions

**What are the local, national, international policies that can accelerate renewable-based fuel substitution?**
**Carbon monetization?**
**Education & awareness?**
**Industry assistance?**
**Fuel taxation?**

## Security

**Energy Economy**

**Governments**

**Corporations**

**Environment**

**Development**

**Human & Social**
**Responsibility**

## Poverty Reduction (Economic Development) 

_**+ Population Growth**_** **
**Requires Electricity Growth**

- World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy Agency

## Population growth is mostly in developing countries

- World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy Agency

**Population growth is mostly in developing countries**

## With huge development challenges

- World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy Agency

**With huge development challenges**

## Global Energy Poverty

- World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy Agency

**Global Energy Poverty**

## The correlation between poverty and electricity access

- World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy Agency

**The correlation between poverty and electricity access**

## Clean water requires access to electricity

- National Geographic, September 2002

**Clean water requires access to electricity**

## Where are the Renewables?

**Home Systems**

**Schools**

**Health Clinics**

**Water Pumping**

**Water **
**Purification **

**Microenterprise**
** ****Development**

**Rural Telephony**

**Village Minigrids**

## What are some of the Development Questions?

**What is required to make a significant difference?**
**Within the international development community.**
**At the project level.**
**How can renewables be a more effective development tool?**
**How do we effectively target and implement comprehensive energy-economic development efforts?**

## Governments

**Governments**

**Corporations**

**Energy Economy**

**Environment**

**Development**

**Security**

**Human & Social**
**Responsibility**

**Supply**

**Demand**

**Supply**
**Development**

**Environmental**
**Protection**

**Protection of**
**Supplies**

**US Military**

**US AID**

**Democracy**
**Good governance**
**Humanitarian assistance**
**Economic development**
**Energy?**

**???**

## IEA has developed a basic World Energy Model

- World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy Agency

**IEA has developed a basic World Energy Model**

## Transport

- World Energy Outlook 2002, International Energy Agency

- Residential & Service Sector

- Power Generation

- Oil Supply

**But nothing for renewable energy**

## We need

**Country-based**
**Life-cycle costing principles**
**Least Cost (to society, to individual countries)**
**Tracks fossil fuel price & reserves**
**RE Manufacturing scaleup**
**And other stuff ... **

**A Comprehensive, Socio-Techno-Economic “Model”**
**For Global Energy Expansion Planning**

**That connects the commercial, social, and security issues in a way that helps us understand and communicate the challenges facing the **
**current energy-economic framework.**

**We need**

## So -

**Think about the big picture:**

**What are the areas where we know there are analytic linkages & work underway? (e.g. climate & energy)**
**Where could these models be extended to pick up other dimensions?**

**What are the areas and linkages where we don’t understand what’s going on, and no analytic work is underway? (e.g. security & rural economic development; energy & water)**
**How can we get our arms around these issues?**

**What form of analytic approach makes sense to tackle this integrated, interdisciplinary, non-linear, mixed quantitative/qualitative problem?**

## What’s your vision of the next 200 years?

**What’s your vision of the next 200 years?**

**And why?**