# Presentation: 280354

## National Wildfire Prediction:The need for clear requirements and standards

**Eli Jacks**
**Chief, Fire and Public Weather Branch**
**Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services, NOAA/NWS**

##        Who provides fire weather forecasts and services?

**                 **_**Background and History**_

**      ****11 Regional GACCs****                 **

**6 Regions/122 WFOs****                 **

***NOAA/National Weather**** ****Service***

## NOAA/NWS Fire Weather Support

*Incident Meteorologists*
*(IMETs):*
**Cadre of 63 on-site fire weather forecasters**** **
**Forecasts used to plan crew  and resource placement **** **
**Essential part of an Interagency fire control team**

##              But a clear understanding of
               user requirements is key!

-                user requirements is key!

**     ****NOAA forecasts are used for decisions on:**
**  ****1)   Fire fighter  safety**
**2)   Staffing**
**Movement of  Resources**

- Fire Weather Forecasting:  *It’s at the heart of good **land management decisions*

## Cost Benefit to the Economy

- New benchmarks were set by fire weather seasons 2000-2004
-       -  Total costs including federal, state, and local
-          suppression efforts are up to $2B annually
- About 98% of fires are extinguished in initial attack
-       -   The other 2% account for 80% of total cost,
-           or between $140M and $540M per fire!
- Estimated cost-benefit for improving the fire weather program ranges between 23:1 and 90:1
- 8.3M acres burned in 2005; average is 4.6M

## Past Efforts at Needs Assessment

*The land management agencies have understood the need   *
*    **and have attempted to generate national standards via*
*                       **interagency work groups*

-   1995 : Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy & Program Review
-   2000:  The Fire Danger Working Team under the NWCG
-   2000:  Pacific Northwest Coordinating Group
-   2003:  The Predictive Services National Meeting
-   2004:  The PS/NOAA-NWS Fire Weather Program Managers Meeting

- Past Efforts at Needs Assessment

## Where We Are Today

- Interagency efforts have either resulted in _*recommendation *_
- to establish national requirements and standards, or have resulted in only _*regionally-based*_  requirements and standards

- _BOTTOM LINE:_
-   A comprehensive set of user-driven requirements and
-   standards is needed to support improved understanding,
-   communication, and services among all agencies which
-   mitigate and suppress fires

-    *In June of 2005, the Western Governors’ Association *
*                                **cited this need*

## Key Points from the 2005 WGA Resolution

- 1)   Add Fire Weather support as a core mission of NOAA/NWS
- 2)	Add Fire Weather Program into the NOAA Research and Strategic Plans, and funding requests
- 3)	OFCM should complete a National Needs Assessment
- 4)	Incorporate RAWS data into ISOS as part of GEOSS
- 5)   Congress direct Nat. Acad. of Sciences to review research programs related to fire weather and environment

## WGA Points (Con’t)

- 6)  Establish interagency effort to transfer digital weather
-      info/technology into operational decision making
- 7)  Integrate fire weather, environment, and smoke
-      dispersion programs with WGA drought program and
-      Western Regional Air Partnership
- 8)  Make all federal weather, climate, and hydrology data
-      available to all levels of gov’t in an unrestricted manner

##     “Complete a National Needs Assessment Report, by NOAA’s Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, of federal, state and local fire managers needs for weather information in their wildfire and prescribed fire decision making processes and a framework to meet those needs by the NWS and Predictive Services”

- Specific Wording For The Third WGA Recommendation:

##      We’re on the cusp of a quantum level
     improvement in decision making tools to support fire operations

	     -	High resolution, Interdisciplinary
                Modeling

		   -    Digital Data via NOAA/NWS gridded
                forecasts (NDFD)

		   -    GIS

-      improvement in decision making tools to support fire operations
- 	     -	High resolution, Interdisciplinary
-                 Modeling
- 		   -    Digital Data via NOAA/NWS gridded
-                 forecasts (NDFD)
- 		   -    GIS

- Why Now?

##      Establish an OFCM Joint Action Team to perform a National Needs Assessment as recommended by WGA  

  Output from this Assessment will likely result
  in beneficial agreements in other areas:

Data collection/assimilation 
Information dissemination 
Education and outreach
User response – Assessing what actions are taken 
What is needed in the future?

-   *Output from this Assessment will likely result*
*  **in beneficial agreements in other areas:*
- Data collection/assimilation
- Information dissemination
- Education and outreach
- User response – Assessing what actions are taken
- What is needed in the future?

- Recommendation