# Presentation: 875828

## Northeast HurricaneConference

- Brigadier General John J. Kelly Jr., (USAF, Ret.)
- Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere
- National Hurricane Conference
- July 19, 2006

- From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

**Notes:**
Vice Admiral (U.S. Navy Retired) Conrad Lautenbacher the Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere and Administrator of NOAA could not make it 

It is important for citizens everywhere to be prepared.  

Our mission as an agency and during hurricanes is much broader than weather forecasting. 

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and to conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our Nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs. 

 About 12,500 NOAA employees in all 50 states, possessions and territories dedicate themselves to protect our Nation’s people and property.  We protect lives and livelihoods. We observe the atmosphere, and the oceans and the creatures that live in the oceans.  

We conduct research and take that research into operations.  We survey the nation and monitor and protect its coast.   

Approximately one-third of the Nation’s GDP is touched by goods and services NOAA provides.  Our reach extends from the sun to the bottom of the ocean floor.

## Overview

- 2006 Hurricane Outlook
- NOAA = Before, During & After
- Improvements
- Track Forecast Errors
- Observation
- Modeling
- Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)
- What is GEOSS?
- GEOSS Societal Benefits
- GEOSS Improvements
- Summary

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

## 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

|  | Actual 2005 | May 2006 Outlook | Average Season |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Tropical Storms | 28 | 13-16 | 11 |
| Hurricanes | 15 | 8-10 | 6 |
| Major Hurricanes | 7 | 4-6 | 2 |
| Probability of an above normal season | 100% | 80% | 33% |

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

## NOAA = Before, After & During

- Before The Storm
- During The Storm
- After The Storm

- More Than Just Max Mayfield...

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

## NOAA = Operational Service Agency

- These are critical services in case of hurricanesand other natural and human-induced disasters

- Preparation

- Forecasts & Warnings

- Response

- Rebuilding

- Update Management Plans for Trust Resources
- Support for Community Rebuild
- Ongoing Employee Support
- Repair Impacted NOAA Facilities

- Outreach & Education
- Disaster Preparedness
- Hazard Assessment
- Continuity of Operations Planning

- Media, Federal, State, & Local Outreach & Communication
- Weather Monitoring
- Hurricane Forecasting
- Pre-disaster Readiness

- Damage Assessment
- Updated Navigational Aids
- Living Marine Resources Assessment
- Employee Tracking & Support
- NOAA Infrastructure Assessment

*Timeframe: Ongoing*

*Timeframe: Starts at identification of tropical depressions*

*Timeframe: **Event through 1-2 months following*

*Timeframe: **Months to years*

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

**Notes:**
NOAA supports the full suite of activities associated with hurricane disasters.  Do we need more detail here in the notes?  Particularly are there one of these bullets that we need more information for you?

Key issue here for NOAA is that we requirements based management organization that is an Operational Oriented Organization to provide products and services to the Nation. 

## Before The Storm

- Beaver Dam Creek WetlandRestoration Project, NY

- Eelgrass bed restoration, Narragansett Bay, RI

- NOAA’s G - IV

- Contoocook River Dam Removal, NH

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

**Notes:**
Contoocook River Dam Removal to aid eel migration (Mike has long desc.)
Beaver Dam Creek Wetland Restoration Project, NY

## Before The Storm

- http://www.stormready.noaa.gov

- Prepares communities for natural disasters
- 37 Communities
- 71 Counties
- NE 108 Areas

- 1074	Sites in U.S.

**We need to fill in the gaps**

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

## During The Storm

- Hurricane Katrina Forecast Track

- Hurricane Katrina Eyewall Penetration, NOAA P3

- Hurricane Rita Satellite Observation

- Dropsonde from P3,
- Hurricane Katrina

- Hurricane Liaison Team

- Emergency Managers Briefing

- Forecast Tracks

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

## During the Storm

- NOAAWatch Web Page
- www.noaawatch.gov
- NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

## After The Storm

- Levee Breach, Hurricane Katrina

- EPA/NOAA Damage Assessment, Hurricane Katrina

- NOAA Flyover Assessments, Hurricane Katrina

- Tide Gauge Repair, LA

- Navigational Response Units

- Satellite Assessment, LA

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

## ImprovementsNHC Atlantic Track Forecast Errors

- ImprovementsNHC Atlantic Track Forecast Errors

- 12

- 24

- 36

- 48

- 72

- 96

- 120

- Forecast Period (hours)

- 0

- 100

- 200

- 300

- 400

- 500

- Error (nautical miles)

- 1964-1973

- 1984-1993

- 1974-1983

- 1994-2003

- 2003-2004

- Katrina

- Rita

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

**Notes:**

These are the NHC track errors in nautical miles based on the official forecasts and analysis over the past 42 years. 

These are average tracks!   Not looking at individual storms.  This is also mentioned on the next slide. 

Coordinated research with NOAA, NASA, and NSF and strategic investment by the USWRP led to these improvements.

WE are better, but must improve and if you can’t predict the track, intensity and precipitation amounts are also not going to be predicted well. 

## ImprovementsObservations & Modeling

- Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR or “SMURF”)
- Provides improved sea surface wind speeds
- Now flown on both NOAA’s WP-3Ds
- Implemented on Air Force Hurricane Hunters for the 2007 Hurricane Season
- GFDL-URI Coupled Hurricane-Ocean Model
- Factors the Effect of the Ocean on Hurricanes
- Contributed to reduction of official track forecast errors by 1/3 over last 15 years
- Represents 16 years of hurricane model development
- Continually Improved

- “SMURF”

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

## What is GEOSS?Global Earth Observation System of Systems

- What is GEOSS?Global Earth Observation System of Systems

- Comprehensive
- Coordinated
- Sustained
- An end-to-end system of existing systems (both in situ and remote sensing observation platforms)linked with new systems

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

**Notes:**
GEOSS will be comprehensive, by including observations and products gathered from all components required to serve the needs of participating members.  GEOSS will be coordinated, in terms of leveraging resources of individual contributing members to accomplish this system, whose total capacity is greater than the sum of its parts.  GEO will also be sustained, by the collective and individual will and capacity of participating members.
The Framework declares that GEOSS will be a distributed system of systems, addressing data utilization challenges, as well as facilitating current and new capacity building efforts. 

## Societal Benefits of GEOSS

- Natural & Human Induced Disasters

- Human Health & Well-Being

- Energy Resources

- Climate Variability & Change

- Water Resources

- Weather Information, Forecasting & Warning

- Terrestrial, Coastal & Marine Ecosystems

- Sustainable Agriculture & Desertification

- Biodiversity

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

**Notes:**
Specific outcomes of an operational GEOSS are identified in the Framework including enabling global, multi-system information capabilities for nine societal benefit areas: 
• Reducing loss of life and property from natural and human-induced disasters; 
• Understanding environmental factors affecting human health and well being; 
• Improving management of energy resources; 
• Understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating, and adapting to climate variability and change; 
• Improving water resource management through better understanding of the water cycle; 
• Improving weather information, forecasting, and warning; 
• Improving the management and protection of terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems; 
• Supporting sustainable agriculture and combating desertification; 
• Understanding, monitoring, and conserving biodiversity. 
The nations of the world have generated a great deal of political will in support of GEOSS, and it is imperative to this process that we maintain it.  Highlighting the human dimension and the benefits to society from a comprehensive system has been, and will continue to be, the key to successfully establishing the GEOSS.  Here are a few examples: 

## Summary

- Active season ahead
- NOAA is there before, during & after
- NOAA strives for improvements
- Forecasts
- Observations
- Modeling
- NOAA is an integral part of GEOSS

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

## Background Material

## Long Island Sound SLOSH Model

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes

## Buzzards Bay SLOSH Model

- Northeast Hurricane Conference: From Before to Beyond, NOAA’s Role in Northeast Hurricanes