# Presentation: 272776

## National FCAMMS:

**National FCAMMS:**
** ****Smoke & Air Quality Modeling Strategy**

_**Douglas Fox**_
**Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere **
**Colorado State University **
**Fort Collins, CO  80523**
**Allen Riebau**
**USDA Forest Service **

**SHRMC**
**Athens, GA**
**31 March 2004**

## FCAMMS: Conceptual structure

- Inner Ring

- Middle Ring

- Outer Ring

**Small group of scientists and technicians who run MM5 & air quality models & make results available to others (scientists)**

**Larger group of specialists who take data from inner ring & combine with other information to produce results and products for agencies (information suppliers)**

**Largest part of FCAMMS Agencies who use information & provide guidance, funding, & problems for inner and middle rings. (users****)**

**FCAMMS: ****Conceptual structure**

## FCAMMS Conceptual structure

|      Ring | Meteorology | Fire | Smoke |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Scientists & Technicians | Met modelers & atmos sci. | Fire modelers & scientists | Air Quality modelers & scientists |
| Information
Suppliers | GACCS & Fire Wx forecasters | Fire teams
& staffs
FIO’s | States,
RPO’s, AQCD’s |
| Users
 | Fire fighters | Fire fighters | Air Quality
Regulators & public |

- Research

- National programs

- Local

## Why model smoke & AQ?

- Legal & regulatory mandates:
- Clean Air Act;
- State & Local regulatory programs.
- Public Relations:
- Public information & safety.
- Fire Management:
- Fire fighter operations & safety.

**It’s the responsible thing to do...**

## FLM’s responsibilities are Strategic, Tactical & Operational .... 

**Clean Air Act:**
**Regional Haze regulations **
**Natural Background determinations**
**Regional Haze S/TIPS**
**NAAQS S/TIPS**
**PM2.5**
**Smoke Management Programs (SMP)**
**Tracking smoke plumes**
**Anticipating air-shed loadings**
**Documenting plans & accomplishments **
**HAPs (toxic emissions like Hg)**

## Smoke & Air Quality Modeling Strategy

- National frameworks:
- For regional adaptation.
- Air Quality simulation frameworks include:
- Fire emissions;
- Meteorological simulation;
- Smoke & Air Quality simulation;
- Data display & delivery

## Meteorology

**Emissions**

**Meteorology**
** ****MM5**

## Different tools appropriate for different applications or the same tools might be applied differently

**Different tools appropriate for different applications or the same tools might be applied differently**

**Regional AQS Framework**

**Permitting Framework**

**Other Framework**

**BlueSky Framework**

**Display & Delivery****  **

## BlueSky/RAINS Framework:Real-time & forecast mode

_***Emissions data inputs***__***:***_
- Daily, in time for the simulation;
- Real fuel loadings.
- Meteorology modeling:
- 24/7 operation;
- Timely outputs.
- Smoke modeling:
- Each fire’s plume trajectory;
- Plume’s ground level concentration.
_***Display & Delivery:***_
- Web based GIS functionalities.
- Air Quality Simulation Modeling
- CMAQ;
- Chemistry & deposition.
- Smoke Emissions inventory
- Tactical Planning tools **(Permitting)**
- Screening tools
- SASEM, SIS
- Ventilation & dispersion indices.
- Accounting tools

## Slide 10

## Regional AQS Framework:Fire impact on RH & PM2.5

_***Emissions data inputs:***_
- Link to emissions inventories;
- Fire: temporal, spatial, speciation per model;
- Delivered in SMOKE or similar Emissions system.
- Simulation capability for scenarios.
- Meteorology modeling:
- One to multiple years of validated data with precip.
_***Air Quality modeling:***_
- CMAQ
- Dry & wet, gas & aerosol chemistry, deposition.
- Display & Delivery:
- PAVE and other graphical analysis capabilities.
- Air Quality Simulation Modeling
- CMAQ;
- Chemistry & deposition.
- Smoke Emissions inventory
- Tactical Planning tools **(Permitting)**
- Screening tools
- SASEM, SIS
- Ventilation & dispersion indices.
- Accounting tools

## Require that all States and Tribes: 	
Develop S(T)IP to limit emissions;
Formalize Smoke Management Programs.

At each Class I area:
Identify the 20% haziest days;
Calculate “natural background;”
Reduce 20% haziest days to natural background.   

- Develop S(T)IP to limit emissions;
- Formalize Smoke Management Programs.
- At each Class I area:
- Identify the 20% haziest days;
**Calculate “natural background;”**
**Reduce 20% haziest days to natural background.**

**Regional Haze Regulations**

**Notes:**
The primary reason fire’s contribution to regional air quality is of concern is because of the Clean Air Act Regional Haze Regulations. These regulations protect the visibility of Class I areas, 156 Wilderness and National Park locations. The regulations are based on the IMPROVE monitoring network. Based on IMPROVE data, States are required to develop State Implementation Plans to reduce emissions of visibility degrading aerosol. Since forest fire smoke is recognized as a significant contributor to regional haze but one that is different from other pollution sources (e.g. industrial & transportation activities), the States are also mandated in the regulations to implement Smoke Management Programs. 
The regulations specifically require States to identify for each Class I area in their State, what is the natural background for visibility, what is the mean of the 20% haziest and 20% cleanest days (based on a 5 year average) and establish a program of emissions limitations to reduce the haziest days to natural background conditions (whilst not reducing the cleanest days) over the next half century, measuring progress in 10 year increments. 
Natural background is a complex determination but it is specifically identified in the regulations to be: reflective of contemporary conditions and land use patterns (not historical, pre-European conditions); a long-term average condition analogous to the 5-year average best-and worst-day conditions that are tracked under the regional haze program, and; estimated for each Class I area in the absence of human-caused impairment.

## OC contribution to the 20% worst visibility days in 2000, how much of the OC is from fire?

**OC contribution to the 20% worst visibility days in 2000, how much of the OC is from fire?**

**Notes:**
To establish emission limits for their SIPS, States will use the past five years of IMPROVE aerosol data. These plots show that OC, which is generally greater than 2 to 3 times its “natural” value, is responsible for about 40% of the visibility reduction on the 20% haziest days in the west. However, it is not possible to determine precisely how much of this OC is due to wildfire, prescribed burning, agricultural burning or biogenic SOA formation. So, it is important to review just what we do know about the national pattern of OC and what sources contribute to it. 

## OC/EC Edge analysis: OC/EC ratios

-  **Maps of annual OC/EC ratios for 2000 – 2002.**
-  **Applying an urban OC/EC ratio of 2.3 and a fire ratio of 9 for the apportionment of OC to fire (& SOA) ranges from approximately 0% (black) to >90% (red) of observed OC.**

**2000**

**2001**

**2002**

**OC/EC Edge analysis:**** OC/EC ratios**

**Notes:**
Spatial maps of OC/EC for 2000 – 2002.  In all plots the observed monthly weighted annual mean OC/EC ranges between 2.3 and 9 and all figures have this scale.  Low OC/EC is shown in red and high OC/EC is shown in black.

## Regional Air Quality simulation  output examples 

**SHRMC**** CMAQ ozone simulation on 6 March 2002 with prescribed burning on in Florida**

**REMSAD simulation for total Sulfur in support of BRAVO program**** **

**Notes:**
An illustration of the type of outputs from a regional Air Quality simulation. The first is an example of a CMAQ simulation of Ozone in nothern Florda  we will be generating when CSEM is introduced into REMSAD. This is total sulfur from one of the BRAVO simulation runs. 

## Permitting Framework:State Smoke Management Programs

_***Emissions data inputs***__***:***_
- Planned inputs from burners;
- Accurate accounting of accomplishments.
- Meteorology modeling:
- None or Climatological defaults.
- Smoke modeling:
- SASEM, SIS – Plume or puffs in a single wind obs.;
- NFSPUFF, TSARS+ - Puffs in a wind field;
- Local considerations.
- Display & Delivery:
- Easily used by States & others.
- Air Quality Simulation Modeling
- CMAQ;
- Chemistry & deposition.
- Smoke Emissions inventory
- Tactical Planning tools **(Permitting)**
- Screening tools
- SASEM, SIS
- Ventilation & dispersion indices.
- Accounting tools

## Slide 17

## FCAMMS 

**FCAMMS **
**Smoke & Air Quality Modeling strategy can advance smoke management throughout the United States. But it must be a cooperative effort.....**

## Quantifying fire’s contributions to regional air quality requires:

***Implement*** a ***national fire activity data*** system;
***Develop*** ***chemical tracers*** to distinguish carbon from different types of fire and other sources;
***Improve emissions factors*** ***& mechanisms*** for primary and secondary organic aerosol;
***Continue apportionment*** studies using multiple years of speciated PM data;
***Apply improved regional scale simulation modeling including fire******;****** ***
***Apply satellite remote sensing*** for fire impacts on Class I areas.

**Notes:**
In conclusion, here are a few recommendations on research needed to quantify fire’s contribution to regional air quality. These are taken from a recent Regional Haze guidance on calculating natural visibility conditions. They serve here to summarize some of the multitude of tasks ahead of us in this business of determining smoke contributions to regional air quality.