# Presentation: 463282

## Prd9q1o vs gfs

***NH 500 anom. Corr. day 5 +0.5% ******	******Significant improvement day 3***
***SH 500 anom. Corr. Day 5 +1.8%******	******significant improvement day 5***
***NH 500 rmse hgt day 5 -1.0%******	******significant improvement days 1-4***
***SH 500 rmse hgt day 5 -4.7%******	******significant improvement days 1-6***
***NH 50 rmse hgt ******	******	******	******significant improvement days 2-4, 7-9***
***SH 50 rmse hgt******	******	******	******improved to day 12***
***NH 1000 rmse wind******	******	******signficantly better days 1-5***
***SH 1000 rmse wind******	******	******signficantly better days 2-5***
***NH 200 rmse wind day1 -1.4%******	******significantly better days 1-3***
***NH 200 rmse wind day3 -1.4%***
***SH 200 rmse wind ******day 1 +1.5%******	******significantly better days 4-6***
***SH 200 rmse wind day 3 -0.9%***
***NH 50 rmse wind******	******	******significantly better days 3-7***
***SH 50 rmse wind******	******	******significantly better days 1-7***

## Prd9q1o vs gfs

***Tropics 1000 rmse wind******	******	******   significantly better days 2-3***
***Tropics 850 rmse wind day 3 -3.0% significantly better days 1-14***
***Tropics 500 rmse wind day 3 -3.3% significantly better days 1-10***
***Tropics 200 rmse wind ******day 1 +0.3%****** significantly better day 4***
***Tropics 200 rmse wind day 3 -1.0%***
***Tropics 100 rmse wind ******	******	******    significantly worse days 1-3***
***Tropics 50 rmse wind******	******	******    significantly worse day 1***
***	******	******	******	******    ******significantly better days 4-11***
***Hurricane tracks June 3-Sept. 24 ******worse than avn 0-12h******, better days 1-5***
***CONUS precip ***
***>0.2 mm/day ***
***12-36h ******	******ETS -0.5%******	******TSS -0.2% ******	******Bias +1.4%****** ******	***
***36-60h   ETS +1.2%******	******TSS +0.6%******	******Bias +0.2%***
***60-72h ******	******ETS +0.7%******	******TSS +0.6%******	******Bias -0.1%***
***>2.5mm/day***
***12-36h******	******ETS +1.4%******	******TSS +6.6%******	******Bias -2.2%***
***36-60h ******	******ETS +1.2%******	******TSS +7.9%******	******Bias +4.3%***
***60-72h******	******ETS +1.25%******	******TSS -1.4%******	******Bias +9.2%***

## Prc6 vs Prd9q1o

***NH 500 anom. Corr. day 5 -0.9% ******	******Worse days 3-14***
***SH 500 anom. Corr. Day 5 -0.2%******	******Slightly worse ***
***NH 500 rmse hgt day 5 +2.9%******	******Worse days 3-15***
***SH 500 rmse hgt day 5  +1.1%******	******Sightly worse days 3-5***
***NH 50 rmse hgt ******	******	******	******significant improvement days 1-15***
***SH 50 rmse hgt******	******	******	******better days 1-15***
***NH 1000 rmse wind******	******	******slightly worse***
***SH 1000 rmse wind******	******	******worse days 1-11***
***NH 200 rmse wind day1 -2.4%******	******better days 1-4***
***NH 200 rmse wind day3 -0.9%***
***SH 200 rmse wind day 1 +2.2%******	******worse days 1-6***
***SH 200 rmse wind day 3 +1.6%***
***NH 50 rmse wind******	******	******significantly better days 1-15***
***SH 50 rmse wind******	******	******better days 5-15***

## PRC6 vs Prd9q1o

***Tropics 1000 rmse wind******	******	******    worse days 1-5***
***Tropics 850 rmse wind day 3 +1.9% worse days 1-6***
***Tropics 500 rmse wind day 3 +0.6% worse days 1-5***
***Tropics 200 rmse wind day 1 +2.1% worse days 1-3***
***Tropics 200 rmse wind day 3 +0.3%***
***Tropics 100 rmse wind ******	******	******    significantly better days 1-15***
***Tropics 50 rmse wind******	******	******    significantly better days 1-15***
***	******	******	******	***
***Hurricane tracks June 3-Aug. 20 better than prd9q1o days 1-4******, worse day 5***
***CONUS precip vs GFS***
***>0.2 mm/day ***
***12-36h ******	******ETS +0.5%******	******TSS +0.2% ******	******Bias -1.2% ******	***
***36-60h   ETS +2.5%******	******TSS +1.2%******	******Bias -1.8%***
***60-72h ******	******ETS -0.4%******	******TSS -0.7%******	******Bias -2.0%***
***>2.5mm/day***
***12-36h******	******ETS +8.5%******	******TSS +30.1%******	******Bias +6.7%***
***36-60h ******	******ETS +13.2%******	******TSS +21.9%******	******Bias +27.2%***
***60-72h******	******ETS -6.2%******	******TSS +10.2%******	******Bias +40.2%***

## Prc6 vs Prc5u

***NH 500 anom. Corr. day 5 0.0%****** ******	******Slightly worse after day 6***
***SH 500 anom. Corr. Day 5 +0.7%******	******Slightly better days 5-7****** ***
***NH 500 rmse hgt day 5 +0.3%******	******Slightly worse days 4-15***
***SH 500 rmse hgt day 5  -1.2%******	******Slightly better days 4-7***
***NH 50 rmse hgt ******	******	******	******slightly better days 6-8***
***SH 50 rmse hgt******	******	******	******somewhat better days 4-8***
***NH 1000 rmse wind******	******	******better days 1-5***
***SH 1000 rmse wind******	******	******better days 3-7***
***NH 200 rmse wind day1 -0.8%******	******worse after day 3***
***NH 200 rmse wind day3 -0.2%***
***SH 200 rmse wind day 1 +0.3%******	******somewhat worse week 2***
***SH 200 rmse wind day 3 +0.4%***
***NH 50 rmse wind******	******	******slightly better days 5-9***
***SH 50 rmse wind******	******	******slightly better days 4-8***

## PRC6 vs Prc5u

***Tropics 1000 rmse wind******	******	******    Significantly better days 2-15***
***Tropics 850 rmse wind day 3 -0.7%  Significantly better days 4-15***
***Tropics 500 rmse wind day 3 -0.6%  Better days 2-4, 6-14***
***Tropics 200 rmse wind ******day 1 +0.3%****** Significantly better days 3-15***
***Tropics 200 rmse wind day 3 -1.6%***
***Tropics 100 rmse wind ******	******	******    better days 3-15***
***Tropics 50 rmse wind******	******	******    better days 7-15***
***	******	******	******	***
***Hurricane tracks June 3-Aug. 20 better than prc5u days 0-1.5******, worse days 3-5***
***CONUS precip vs Prc5u***
***>0.2 mm/day ***
***12-36h ******	******ETS -0.8%******	******TSS -0.4% ******	******Bias -0.2%****** ******	***
***36-60h   ETS -0.6%******	******TSS -0.4%******	******Bias +0.5%***
***60-72h ******	******ETS +1.1%******	******TSS +0.9%******	******Bias +0.6%***
***>2.5mm/day***
***12-36h******	******ETS -14.7%******	******TSS -6.3%******	******Bias +3.2%***
***36-60h ******	******ETS -8.5%******	******TSS -15.2%******	******Bias +8.0%***
***60-72h******	******ETS +3.4%******	******TSS +18.2%******	******Bias +21.9%***

## Prc6 vs Prc5

***NH 500 anom. Corr. day 5 +0.3%****** ******	******Worse day 6-10***
***SH 500 anom. Corr. Day 5 0.0%******	******Slightly worse days 7-10,****** ***
***	******	******	******	******slightly better days 11-16***
***NH 500 rmse hgt day 5 0.0%******	******Slightly worse days 6-10***
***SH 500 rmse hgt day 5  +0.2%******	******Slightly worse days 7-9***
***NH 50 rmse hgt ******	******	******	******similar***
***SH 50 rmse hgt******	******	******	******slightly better days 6-9, 11-15***
***NH 1000 rmse wind******	******	******Slightly better days 3-4***
***SH 1000 rmse wind******	******	******slightly worse days 5-10***
***NH 200 rmse wind day1 -0.5%******	******worse after day 3***
***NH 200 rmse wind day3 +0.4%******	******slightly worse days 5-15***
***SH 200 rmse wind day 1 +0.1%******	******slightly worse days 5-9***
***SH 200 rmse wind day 3 +0.2%***
***NH 50 rmse wind******	******	******slightly worse days 10-15***
***SH 50 rmse wind******	******	******slightly better days 7,8,10-16***

## PRC6 vs prc5

***Tropics 1000 rmse wind******	******	******    Similar***
***Tropics 850 rmse wind day 3 -0.5%  ******Similar***
***Tropics 500 rmse wind day 3 -0.2%  Slightly better days 2-4***
***Tropics 200 rmse wind ******day 1 +0.5%******  better days 3,4***
***Tropics 200 rmse wind day 3 -0.9%***
***Tropics 100 rmse wind ******	******	******    Slightly worse***
***Tropics 50 rmse wind******	******	******    Similar***
***	******	******	******	***
***Hurricane tracks Prc5 ******worse than prd09q1o******, better than operational***
***CONUS precip vs Prc5***
***>0.2 mm/day ***
***12-36h ******	******ETS -1.3%******	******TSS -0.9% ******	******Bias -0.4%****** ******	***
***36-60h   ETS -0.3%******	******TSS -0.8%******	******Bias -0.9%***
***60-72h ******	******ETS 0.0%******	******TSS -0.2%******	******Bias -0.8%***
***>2.5mm/day***
***12-36h******	******ETS +6.7%******	******TSS +13.6%******	******Bias -4.4%***
***36-60h****** ******	******ETS +2.4%******	******TSS -7.1%******	******Bias -8.3%***
***60-72h******	******ETS +3.4%******	******TSS +16.1%******	******Bias +20.4%***

## New GSI best scores 

- New GSI best scores
- New GFS slightly worse than operational NH, better SH
- Coupling no impact NH, slightly positive SH

## New GSI significantly

- Better than operational
- Days 3 and 4
- Prc6 worse than new GSI after day 2
- Coupling adds nothing

- Better than operational
- Day 5
- PRC6 little different from
- New GSI
- Coupling slightly improves
- Scores
- All new models have
- Problems week 2 in SH

## New GFS signficantly reduces

- Bias in stratosphere
- New GSI slightly less bias than operational

## New GFS reduces bias in stratosphere

- New GSI more bias than operational

## New GFS higher heights in stratosphere

- Than operation
- New GSI lower heights in stratosphere

## New GFS significantly improves stratosphere

## New GFS improves stratosphere

- New GSI and new GFS
- Slightly worse week 2 SH

## New GSI best 

- New GSI best
- New GFS slightly worse than operational NH, slightly better SH
- Coupling better SH

## NEW GSI improves on operational first 5 days NH, first 10 days SH

- New GFS generally Worse than new GSI
- Coupling little impact

## New GSI better

- Than operational
- New GFS improves
- Greatly on new GSI

- Than operational
- New GFS improves
- on new GSI

## New GSI significantly better than operational at 500

***New GFS not quite as good as new GSI at 500***
***New GFS greatly improves stratosphere***
***Coupling little effect***
***Higher resolution SST little effect***

## New GFS more 

- New GFS more
- Warm bias at 100 hPa

## New GFS reduced cold bias troposphere, more 

- New GFS reduced cold bias troposphere, more
- Warm bias at 100 hPa

## Slide 22

## New GFS warmer than operational

- New GSI cooler than operational in stratosphere

## New GFS warmer than operational

- NH, cooler near Antarctica
- PRC6 warmer than PRC5

## New GFS greater error lower troposphere, less error above 100 hPA

- Coupling little effect
- Higher resolution SST little effect

## New GFS reduced error above

- 150 hPa
- Coupling slightly less error near
- Surface, less error upper troposphere,
- Stratosphere
- Higher resolution SST little effect

## New GSI generally less error, except

- Beyond day 10
- New GFS similar to new GSI

## Slide 28

## _____ opr

- ------- prc6

## _____ opr

- ------- prc6

## _____ opr

- ------- prc6

## _____ opr

- ------- prc6

## New GFS slightly increases warm bias over US In summer

***New GFS warmer than operational***
***New GSI cooler than operational***
***New GFS reduces stratospheric errors***
***Coupling reduces temperature error in tropics***
***Higher resolution SST generally warmer at surface; Otherwise little effect***

## Less bias in new GFS

## Less bias in new GFS

## Slightly more bias in new GFS

- Slightly more bias with coupling

## New gfs less error in tropophere

- More error in stratosphere
- New GSI less error in troposphere
- Coupling less error day 2, more error
- After day 4

## New GFS less error in stratospheric winds

- Coupling reduces error at surface, 200 hPa
- New GFS more error in lower troposphere than new GSI

## Slide 39

## New GFS with coupling,

-  Higher resolution SST best
- New GFS better than new GSI
- New GSI better than operational

- New GFS worse than new GSI
- Coupling worse
- Higher resolution SST worse
- New GSI slightly worse than operational

## New GFS worse than new GSI

- Coupling worse
- Higher resolution SST worse
- New GSI worse than operational

- New GSI improves aviation scores in NH, new GFS improves them further
- Operational best in tropics, SH

## New GSI better than operational

- New GFS better than new GSI
- Coupling little effect
- Higher resolution SST worse

- New GFS worse than operational
- Coupling worse
- Higher resolution SST worse

## New GSI best

- New GFS beats operational
- Coupling improves

- New GFS beats operational
- Coupling improves

## New GSI best

- Prc6 beats operational
- Coupling improves
- Higher resolution SST improves

- New GSI better than new GFS in tropical troposphere
- Coupling improves wind forecasts in tropics

## All beat operational 

- All beat operational
- To day 5
- New GFS not as good as new GSI
- Coupling slightly better than uncoupled
- Higher resolution SST
- Slightly better

- All beat operational
- Day 2 To day 5
- New GFS not as good as new GSI
- Coupling slightly better than uncoupled

## New GFS improves on

- New GSI
- New GSI significantly better
- Than operational

- New GSI worse than operational day 1, better day 2 on
- New GFS worse than
- New GSI days 1-6

## Slide 47

## New GSI better than Operational after day1

- New GFS worse than New GSI first 4 days
- Coupling helps significantly

- New GSI best

## Slide 49

## Slide 50

## Hurricane track errors, 00Z only, 20080603 -- 20080820 PRC5U              22.6   37.1   45.9   54.5   69.2 -999.0  113.3 -999.0  158.2 -999.0  215.9 PRC6                16.6   26.6   41.7   46.2   69.2 -999.0  115.7 -999.0  173.1 -999.0  248.3 PRD09Q1O      23.2   31.8   49.6   61.2   78.4 -999.0  117.2 -999.0  178.9 -999.0  225.2 AVNO               19.6   27.1   44.9   56.1   73.2 -999.0  139.2 -999.0  206.7 -999.0  257.1 OFCL                  5.3   25.3   46.0   60.6   83.4 -999.0  109.3 -999.0  163.2 -999.0  221.8 CLP5                   5.5   46.5   96.2  150.9  213.4 -999.0  287.1 -999.0  303.2 -999.0  344.2Hurricane track errors, 00Z only, 20080603 -- 20080924 PRC4              14.7   41.2   63.4   81.7  105.3 -999.0  148.9 -999.0  187.7 -999.0  226.5 PRC5U           16.9   44.3   59.9   73.7   89.5 -999.0  136.5 -999.0  169.0 -999.0  207.8 PRD09Q1O     17.7   40.5   59.8   76.7   96.7 -999.0  138.1 -999.0  180.0 -999.0  214.7 AVNO             15.4   37.6   60.0   80.3   97.9 -999.0  153.4 -999.0  204.0 -999.0  248.9 OFCL             3.7   28.0   48.7   68.2   85.7 -999.0  114.3 -999.0  157.3 -999.0  196.6 CLP5              3.9   46.0   99.7  159.2  227.5 -999.0  331.0 -999.0  419.3 -999.0  497.5

- PRC beats new GSI days 0-4; coupling helps first 48 hours, hurts days 3-5

- Higher resolution SST helps days 0-4

## u

- Prc5u slightly better than new GSI

## u

- Prc5u slightly better than new GSI

## Slide 54

## Slide 55

## _____ opr

- ------- prc6

## _____ opr

- ------- prc6

## _____ opr

- ------- prc6

## _____ opr

- ------- prc6

## Slide 60

## Slide 61

## Slide 62

## Slide 63

## Slide 64

## Slide 65

## Slide 66

## Slide 67

## Slide 68

## Slide 69

## Slide 70

## Slide 71

## _____ opr

- ------- prc6

## _____ opr

- ------- prc6

- Can’t verify this kink In rms error against analysis

## Slide 74

## Slide 75

## Slide 76

## Slide 77

## Slide 78

## Slide 79

## Slide 80