# Presentation: 916235

## The Outlook for Unconventional 

**March 27, 2006**

**John Cochener**
**Energy Information Administration**
**John.Cochener@eia.doe.gov**

**The Outlook for Unconventional **
**Liquids in *****AEO2006***

## How’s Business?

**   **

**www.eia.doe.gov**

**How’s Business?**

- Over 100 billion burgers sold since 1948.
- 						            - *McDonalds*
- Over 63 billion CTL gallons produced since 1955.
- 						                    - *Sasol*
- Over 1.5 billion syncrude barrels produced since 1978.
- 						- *Syncrude Canada*

##      Unconventional Often Evolves Into                                        

**     ****Unconventional Often Evolves Into                                        **
**              ****Conventional Production**

-  Technology allows yesterday’s “exotic” production to become today’s
-   “ordinary” production.  Recent examples include:
*Coalbed Methane*
*Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)*
*Deepwater Gulf of Mexico*
-  Today, unconventional frequently includes:
*Shale Oil *
*Heavy Oil *
*Oil Sands*
*Gas-to-liquids (GTL)*
*Coal-to-liquids (CTL)*
*Energy Crops*
*Biomass-to-liquids (BTL)*
*Ethanol*
*Biodiesel *

## Representative Unconventional Production in 2005

**Representative Unconventional Production in 2005**

**  **

**  **

**  ****OS [0.99]**

**  **

**  ****G**
**[0.05]**

**  **

**  **

**  ****G**
**[0.01]**

**   **

**   **

**   ****E**
**[0.25]**

**   ****E**
**[0.28]**

** **

**  **

**  **

**    ****H**
** ****[0.55]**

**  ****SO [0.00]**

**   **

**   ****C [0.13]**

**  **

**   **

**   **

**   **

**    **

-             **Legend**
**B- BTL**
**C- CTL**
**E- Ethanol**
**G- GTL**
**H- Extra-Heavy Oil**
**OS- Oil Sands**
**SO- Shale Oil**
**[0.00] - Million BPD**

**    **

**  ****E**
**[0.1]**

**  ****E**
**[0.1]**

**   ****E**
**[0.04]**

## Unconventional Production in Reference Case, 2030

**Unconventional Production in Reference Case, 2030**

**  **

**   ****G**
**[<0.1]**

**  ****OS**
** ****[3.6]**

**  ****G**
**[<.1]**

**  ****G**
**[0.2]**

**  ****G**
**[0.2]**

**   ****G**
**[<0.1]**

**  ****G**
**[0.3]**

**  ****G**
**[1.1]**

**   ****G**
**[<0.1]**

**   ****B**
**[<0.1]**

**  ****E**
**[0.7]**

**  ****E**
**[0.7]**

**  ****SO**
**[<0.1]**

**  ****H**
** ****[0.1]**

**   ****H**
** ****[1.6]**

**  ****SO [<0.1]**

**   ****C [0.6]**

**   ****C**
** ****[0.6]**

**  ****C**
**[0.2]**

**   ****C**
** ****[0.6]**

**   ****C**
** ****[<0.1]**

**   ****C [<0.1]**

**    ****G**
**[<0.1]**

-             **Legend**
**B- BTL**
**C- CTL**
**E- Ethanol**
**G- GTL**
**H- Extra-Heavy Oil**
**OS- Oil Sands**
**SO- Shale Oil**
**[0.0] - Million BPD**

**    ****G**
**[<0.1]**

**  ****E**
**[0.3]**

**   ****E**
**[0.3]**

## Unconventional Production in High Price Case, 2030

**Unconventional Production in High Price Case, 2030**

**  ****G**
**[0.2]**

**   ****G**
**[<0.1]**

**  ****OS**
** ****[4.8]**

**  ****G**
**[0.3]**

**  ****G**
**[0.3]**

**  ****G**
**[0.4]**

**  ****G**
**[0.2]**

**  ****G**
**[0.4]**

**  ****G**
**[1.5]**

**   ****G**
**[<0.1]**

**   ****B**
**[<0.1]**

**  ****E**
**[0.9]**

**  ****E**
**[0.8]**

** ****SO**
**[0.4]**

**  ****SO**
**[<0.1]**

**  ****H**
** ****[0.1]**

**   ****H**
** ****[3.1]**

**  ****SO**
** ****[0.1]**

**   ****C [1.6]**

**   ****C**
** ****[1.8]**

**  ****C**
**[0.4]**

**   ****C**
** ****[1.8]**

**   ****C**
** ****[0.2]**

**   ****C**
** ****[0.1]**

**    ****G**
** ****[0.1]**

-             **Legend**
**B- BTL**
**C- CTL**
**E- Ethanol**
**G- GTL**
**H- Extra-Heavy Oil**
**OS- Oil Sands**
**SO- Shale Oil**
**[0.0] - Million BPD**

**    ****G**
**[<0.1]**

**  ****E**
**[0.6]**

**  ****E**
**[0.9]**

## Unconventional Petroleum Production, 2030

**Unconventional Petroleum Production, 2030**
**                                       ****(million barrels per day)**

**            ****Synthetic Crudes       Synthetic Fuels        Renewable Fuels**** **
**                         ****Extra-   **
**             ****Oil       Heavy   Shale    **
**             ****Sands     Oil        Oil        CTL    GTL    BTL        Biodiesel  Ethanol        Total**

_***Reference Case***_
**   ****United States                                                    0.8                  N/A             0.02          0.7               1.5**
**   ****World                     3.6        1.7        0.05          1.8      1.1       N/A             N/A          1.7****a ****           10.0                    **
_***High Price Case***_
**   ****United States                                    0.4           1.7      0.2       N/A             0.03          0.9               3.2**
**   ****World                    4.9         3.1         0.5           2.3      2.6       N/A             N/A          3.0****a****           16.4**
**     **_***Notes***_
***       ******N/A- Not forecast***
***       ******a- Includes Biodiesel***

## Gas-to-Liquids, Coal-to-Liquids, and Oil Shale  Production in the Price Cases, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day)

**Coal to Liquids/**
**Reference**

**Coal to Liquids/**
**High price**

**Gas to Liquids/**
**High price**

**History**

**Projections**

**Oil Shale/High price**

## Simplified Synfuels Flow Diagram

**Simplified Synfuels Flow Diagram**

-     **Front End **
**    ****Feedstock     **
**    ****Handling**
**        ****&**
**     ****Syngas**
**   ****Production**

-    **Fischer-     **
**   ****Tropsch**
**  ****Synthesis**

-   **Product         **
**Separation     **
**       ****&**
** ****Work-up**
**  ****Section**

-   **By Products **
**         ****&**
** ****Co-production**
**    ****Capability**

**Natural Gas**

**Biomass**

**  ****Coal**

**Syngas**

**Syncrude**

**Steam/Heat**

**Electricity**

**Water**

**CO****2****/H****2**

**Naphtha**

**Diesel**

**Kerosene**

**Lubes/Waxes**

## Coal-to-Liquids Production in the Price Cases, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day)

**Coal to Liquids/**
**Reference**

**Coal to Liquids/**
**High price**

**History**

**Projections**

## Gas-to-Liquids Production in the High Price Case, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day)

**Gas to Liquids/**
**High price**

**History**

**Projections**

##    Simplified Oil Shale Process Diagram

**   ****Simplified Oil Shale Process Diagram**

**  **

_***In Situ***__** Process**_

_**Mining Process**_

**    ****Surface **
**        ****or Underground    **
**     ****Mining**

**  ****Surface **
** ****Retorting**

**    ****Cracking/**
**Hydrotreating**

**Marlstone**

**Marlstone**

** ****Bitumen**

**Syncrude**

**Petroleum**

** ****Drilling **
**  ****Wells**

** ****Heating**

**Production**

** ****Kerogen**

**Products**

## Oil Shale  Production in the High Price Case, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day)

**History**

**Projections**

**Oil Shale/High price**

## Unconventional Petroleum Liquids Capital Investment Costs               (Thousand 2004 dollars per daily barrel of capacity)

- Source: Energy Information Administration

## Production Challenges

**   **

**www.eia.doe.gov**

**Production Challenges**

**Biomass-to-Liquids-**	Material handling; large catchment areas required
**Coal-to-Liquids-**	Material handling; gasifier reliability
**Gas-to-Liquids-**	Efficiency; capital costs; stranded gas supplies
**Extra-Heavy Oil-**	Future investment for expansion
**Oil Sands-**		Fuel costs; diluents
**Shale Oil-**		Capital costs; open pit vs *in-situ *process

## Summary

**   **
**   **

**www.eia.doe.gov**

**Summary**

- _United States (2030)_
-   Unconventionals represent 5 to 13 percent of national supply
-     across the price cases.
-   CTL is the largest contributor at 7 percent of national supply in the
-    high price case.
- _World (2030)_
-   Unconventionals represent 8 to 16 percent of total world supply
-     across the price cases.
-   Oil sands and extra-heavy oil are the largest global supply
-    contributors at 5 and 3 percent, respectively, in the high price case.