# Presentation: 425090

## The 13km RUC 2006 Spring Upgrade Package

- NCEP –  14 June 2006

- NOAA-ESRL-GSD
- Stan Benjamin
- John Brown
- Kevin Brundage
- Dezso Devenyi
- Georg Grell
- Bill Moninger
- Steven Peckham
- Tanya Smirnova
- Tracy Lorraine Smith
- Steve Weygandt

- NCEP-EMC
- Geoff Manikin
- NCEP-NCO
- Dave Michaud
- Xiaoxue Wang
- John Ward
- ...

##           Summary of Proposed Changes

- Analysis Changes
-      - New Ob-Bkg quality control - better QC of isolated bad obs
-      - More robust for extremely-limited data cases
- 	- Improved use of coastal/water observations - match bkg
- 	- Fixes w/ cloud analysis – improves short-range precip, coastal cloud
-      - Treatment for raob ‘problem’ when lowest mandatory layer elevation and station elevation are not equal.
-      -  Better handling of multiple raob launches from 1 site
- Model changes
- 	- Correction to Grell-Devenyi convective parameterization
*	*- New diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DFI)
- 	- Higher resolution topography
- Post Processor
- 	-  Correction to theta-e calculation
- 	-  Improved first guess for RTMA
- 	-  Improved ceiling diagnostic

## Spring 2006 RUC Upgrade implementation plan

- January-May 2006
- 	- Real-time parallel testing – EMC
- 	- Intercomparison RUC Para vs. RUC Ops by EMC, FSL
- 		- daily inspection w/ graphics, statistics (raob, surface)
- 	- Transfer afterward to NCEP/NCO
- May-June 2006
- 	- Real-time parallel testing – NCO
- July ???  2006
- 	- Planned operational implementation

## Analysis Code Better Prepared to Deal with “Extremely-Limited Data” Events

- Ops

- Para

- 11z
- 2 May
- 2006

## Improved QC

- 21z 21 Apr 2006
-  Ops RUC analyzes
- 500 mb cool pool over
- KS in response to bad
- RASS sounding data

- Para RUC
- has more
- realistic
- temperatures

## 500 mb

- for the KS temps
- case

## Another Case-5/11/06

## Improved QC - detects erroneous aircraft data

- Ops-Para

## Coastal Issues

- Change to use appropriate land/marine background value for assimilation of coastal surface observations.
- Ops RUC was building up cold spots in certain coastal areas.

## Changes to Convection

-    Grell-Devenyi scheme
-    * Uses ensemble closure approach to estimate mean mass flux
-    * Different no. of closures used over land and water
-    * June 2005 code introduced problem with denominator (no. of closures for averaging) over water leading to very little deep convection over warm water
-    * New code corrects this and generates more (and more realistic) convective precip over water
-    *  Some impact over land as well
-    *  Improvement in upper-level winds over water in environments in which latent heat from convection has impact
-  Improves convection problem over oceans near coasts noted by SPC

## Impacts on Oceanic Convection

## TD Alberto

## Improved Handling of Tropical systems

- Alberto – 12 June 2006

- Ops

- Para

- Analyses

- 12-hr Forecasts

## Alberto: 12-hr MSLP

- 10 08

- Ops

- Para

- Valid 03z 13 June

## Alberto: 850 mb

- Ops

- Para

- Analysis

- 12-hr Fcst

## Alberto – 850 mb 12-hr Wind Speed Forecasts

- Ops

- Para

- Obs
- 12z 13 June

## Diabatic DFI

- (Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization)

-    Overall goal: Provide more robust model behavior and improve initial cloud fields
-  Current RUC uses adiabatic DFI, solving forward integration first without any diffusion – vulnerable (2 cases in Nov 2005).
-  Parallel RUC uses diabatic DFI, first solving backward integration (much more stable), then forward integration with full physics and diffusion (also now fully stable)
-  Initial RH/water vapor fields in parallel RUC are more consistent with dynamics through diabatic DFI, also resulting in improved short-range RH forecasts.
- (WRF-Rapid Refresh will also use Diabatic DFI.)

## Improved assimilation of GOES-detected marine stratus

- .... Resulting in improved coastal cloud forecasts

- 15z – 1 June 2006

- Ops

- Cloud TOP height

- Cloud BASE height (ceiling)

- Ops

- Para

- Improved assimilation of GOES-detected marine stratus

- 14z – 13 June 2006

## Improved ceiling diagnostic

**Improved ceiling diagnostic**
- RUC post-processing
- distinguishes fog vs. low ceiling (e.g., central Ontario)
-  avoids waffle pattern from 20km interpolation (e.g., Manitoba, WY)

## Verification

- Upper-air statistics show a virtual tie at most levels for winds, heights, and temperatures between operational run and parallel
- Parallel shows a general improvement for RH (diabatic DFI and improved cloud analysis)

- RUC13 – dashed
- RUC20 - solid

- temp

- 00-hr
- Wind

- 00-hr
- RH

- 12-hr
- Wind

- 12-hr
- RH

## 500 

- 500
- Heights

- 850
- Temps

- Green – ops
- Blue – para

## 6-h surface forecasts verified vs. METAR obs

- 19 Mar– 28 Apr 06
- RUC Para
-  vs.
- RUC OPS

- 2m temp

- 2m RH

## Revised code to generate downscaled

- NDFD 1st guess constrains the upward
- extrapolation that can lead to very
- warm 2-m temps over high terrain
- during early morning inversions
- (response to NWS comments on RTMA)

- Diffs

##           Summary of Proposed Changes

- Analysis Changes
-      - New Ob-Bkg quality control - better QC of isolated bad obs
-      - More robust for extremely-limited data cases
- 	- Improved use of coastal/water observations - match bkg
- 	- Fixes w/ cloud analysis – improves short-range precip, coastal cloud
-      - Treatment for raob ‘problem’ when lowest mandatory layer elevation and station elevation are not equal.
-      -  Better handling of multiple raob launches from 1 site
- Model changes
- 	- Correction to Grell-Devenyi convective parameterization
*	*- New diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DFI)
- 	- Higher resolution topography
- Post Processor
- 	-  Correction to theta-e calculation
- 	-  Improved first guess for RTMA
- 	-  Improved ceiling diagnostic

- Summary – Spring 2006
- RUC13 change package