# Presentation: 876468

## The State of the Nation’s Hurricane Forecast and Warning Program

- Bill Proenza, Director
- National Hurricane Center
- (NOAA- National Weather Service)
- March 5, 2007

## Our Hurricane Challenge

- Fifty percent of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of the coast!
- Since ’95, we’ve entered several decades of increased tropical cyclone activity.
- Despite a high level of national concern over the threat to life and the Nation’s economic wellbeing, *insufficient resources prevents needed operational science and technology infusion*.
- We are compelled to make ***extraordinary*** efforts to  “partner” our national talents and resources.

## Recent Visibility

- Reports cite needed large investments for operational hurricane research
- National Science Board
- The NOAA Science Advisory Board’s Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group
- OFCM’s Interagency Tropical Cyclone Plan
- But although opportunities are significant, our already limited resources have just been further reduced in some area, e.g. NHC Joint Hurricane Testbed has been further cut to a shortfall level of at least $700,000 per year.

## National Weather Service Recent Key Accomplishments

- NHC met its NWS 2006 “GPRA” goal (48-hour track forecasts).
- NHC and many WFOs received Gold Performance Medals for 2003, 2004, 2005 as well as Congressional commendations and Presidential visits.
- Success of the Joint Hurricane Testbed provided funds to proposals from the Universities(32%), Navy(16%), NASA(11%), other NOAA(18%) and private sector(23%).  All for expediting research to operations.
- NHC extended forecasts from 3 to 5 days (in 2003) and introduced probabilistic wind speed products (in 2005).
- Experimental storm surge probabilities (in 2006)
- Weather Forecast Offices have made significant performance improvements in tornado lead times and flash flood warnings.

**Notes:**
This is just a snipet of the improvements made in hurricane forecasting over the past decades.

## Program Gaps Identified by NHC in 2004

**Inadequate real-time marine observations for better forecasts and analysis which is also critical for model initialization & verification**
-  √ **	****some**** progress: Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer on USAFR aircraft in 2007, and a *****few***** expanded marine buoys..thanks to Supplemental Bill**
**Higher resolution hurricane models including better data assimilation...**
**√**** ****	****some**** progress: Hurricane WRF becomes operational in ‘07, thanks to the Supplemental Bill.**
**BUT.....**

## Ocean Surface Vector Winds

***QuikSCAT***, a critical ocean surface wind vector satellite sensor gives us wind fields (speed *and* **direction**) currently ***HAS NO SCHEDULED REPLACEMENT***:
- provides absolutely critical data for NWS operational warnings, forecasts and models
_***is well beyond its life expectancy***_
- Offers us wind field data critically important for the much needed improvements in hurricane intensity prediction.
***Urgent need***: a next-generation QuikSCAT on an accelerated timetable (consistent with recommendation by the NRC Decadal Survey).
***Consequences?*** Degradation of the National Hurricane Program capabilities !
**AND.....**

**Notes:**
QuikSCAT is a microwave scatterometer that observes Ocean Surface Vector Winds (OSVW), providing daily coverage of 90% of the global oceans.
QuikSCAT is an active sensor that retrieves surface wind speed AND direction.
Launched in June, 1999 with a two- to three-year design life, QuikSCAT continues to perform per specifications in its eighth year – well beyond its projected life expectancy.  Some of this cost could be defrayed by limiting or even eliminating the ocean vector winds capabilities of MIS on NPOESS.

## Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)

- JHT has been immediately successful in transferring research to operations
- The 1 to 2 year JHT proposals allows some high priority operational applications and modeling needs to be addressed
- JHT budget (projects and infrastructure) again cut this year for a total annual shortfall of at least $700,000 annually. Impact: loss of hurricane prediction projects supporting protection of life

**Notes:**
Uncertainty in funding is detrimental to the projects, especially because some projects are multiple years.  Funding a project one year and not its second year does not allow the multi-year project to get into operations which defeats the purpose of the testbed.

## Priority-Setting and Coordination within NOAA

- Operational requirements need to drive research priorities (e.g., PPBES)
- Again, we are compelled to optimize our hurricane program resources
- Collaboration needs to be strengthened:
- NWS/NHC and the WFOs (operations)
- NWS/EMC, OAR/GFDL, CIs (operational numerical modeling), AOML/HRD...
- NESDIS, NWS/NHC (satellite applications)
- NOS, NWS/MDL and NHC (Storm surge modeling and applications)

**Notes:**
We are a mission driven agency and we have an obligation to our customers to provide the best possible hurricane forecast.  Knowing we have limited resources, we need to make sure we move together as a 

## Next Steps

- We are compelled to make extraordinary efforts to enhance our Nation’s Hurricane Warning Program.
- Toward that end, I ask for a new collaboration for all of us to increase, pool and coordinate our resources for operational needs.
- That this effort be clearly led by this program’s mission delivery partners as a leadership team with OFCM charged as the facilitator of this effort.
- That the team be able to represent the science, and make resource commitments (or have access to the decision makers) for the tropical cyclone community.

## Dedicated Modeling Group

- Improvements to hurricane forecasting over the past few decades have come primarily from NOAA/EMC
- Significant contributions from NOAA/GFDL
- Only 2 base-funded modelers and some contractors funded by soft-money to make advancements !
- An expanded hurricane modeling group led by NWS operational modeling center (EMC) is required for improvements in hurricane intensity and track forecasting
- An increase in computing resources will also be required

**Notes:**
Right now, NOAA only has 2 base-funded hurricane modelers.  The Nation is expecting major advances in hurricane prediction and we only fund “2” modelers.  That sends the wrong message.
Next, we are uncertain about the future of the GFDL model.

We can only expect an improvement to models with adequate staff and computing resources.