# Presentation: 069613

## Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support Systems and Related Research & Development Recommendations

***Presented by***
**Richard Wagoner**
***National Center for Atmospheric Research***
**National Hurricane Conference**
**Washington, DC**
**9 April, 2001**

**Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support Systems and Related Research & Development Recommendations**

## Winter Road Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) Prototype Development

***Presented by***
**Bill Mahoney**
***National Center for Atmospheric Research***

## MDSS Objective

**To utilize state-of-the-art atmospheric science**
**and engineering approaches to address and**
**improve the **
**performance**
**of the road**
**maintenance**
**practitioner.**

## MDSS Goals

** ****Capitalize on existing road weather data sources.**
** ****Augment data sources**** where they are weak.**
** ****Fuse data to make**** an integrated and**
**  ****understandable**** presentation**
**  ****of road conditions.**
** ****Provide diagnostic and prognostic information.**

## MDSS Goals (continued)

** ****Provide display capability for the condition**
**  ****of the roadway. **
** ****Develop a decision support tool that provides**
**  ****recommendations on road maintenance**
**  ****courses of action together with anticipated**
**  ****consequences of action or inaction.**
** ****Provide all the above on a single platform.**** **

## MDSS Prototype Components

**Weather**
**Data**

**Advanced**
**Weather**
**Capabilities**

**Decision**
**Support**
**Logic**

**Display**

**DOT Operations Data**

**Road**
**Condition**
**Module**

**External System**
**Interface**

## MDSS Prototype Focus Areas

**  ****Weather Component Focus :**
** ****Event start and stop times**
** ****Surface temperature**
** ****Precipitation type**
** ****Precipitation rate**
** ****Precipitation accumulation**
** ****Conditional probabilities**
** ****Surface wind speed**
** ****Surface wind direction**
** ****Surface visibility**

## MDSS Prototype Focus Areas

**  ****Road Component Focus:**
** ****Pavement temperature and trends**
** ****Pavement chemical concentration**
** ****Pavement friction coefficient**
** ****Pavement contamination**
**  ****(liquid, snow, ice, etc.)**
** ****Snow drifting**

## MDSS Prototype Focus Areas

**Decision Support System Component Focus:**
** ****Monitor weather & road conditions**
** ****Monitor probability & intensity of weather threat**
** ****Crew scheduling**
** ****Manage crew shifts**
** ****Dispatch crews to treat roadway**
** ****Coordinate emergency management**
** ****Manage incidents**
** ****Monitor crew working time**
** ****Post event clean up **

## Proposed Engineering Approach for MDSS

**“****NOAA”**
**Weather Data**

**DOT Wx Data**

**DOT**
**Operations**
**Data**

**Road Condition**
**Module**

**Decision Support**
**System Module**

**GIS Display**

**.**
**.**
**.**

**Data**
**Ingest**

**Forecast Module A**

**Forecast Module B**

**Forecast Module C**

**Forecast Module D**

**Forecast Module N**

**Forecast**
**Integrator**

**Post**
**Processor**

**Forecast**
**Product**

**DICAST**

**Weather**
**Parameter**
**Output**

**Point & Time**
**Specific**
**Output**

## Conceptual System Diagram for MDSS

**GIS Display**

**Data**
**Ingest**

**Forecast Module A**

**Forecast Module B**

**Forecast Module C**

**Forecast Module D**

**Forecast Module N**

**Forecast**
**Integrator**

**Post**
**Processor**

**Forecast**
**Product**

**DICAST**

**.**
**.**
**.**

**Chemical Concentration**

**Weather Data**

**Point & Time**
**Specific**
**Output**

## Environmental Prediction Sites

**Environmental prediction parameters will be generated along the road.**
**These data will be used by the road condition algorithms.**

## Translation of Environmental Data to Road Condition  Information

## Special Features of the MDSS

** ****Takes advantage of standard & road weather sensor data via intelligent data integration.**
** ****Utilizes an automated, high resolution forecast system with advanced data fusion techniques.**
** ****Provides probability (confidence) information for environmental parameters.**

## Special Features of the MDSS

** ****Has the capability of utilizing several road condition algorithms to provide a “best” solution.**
** ****Merges environmental & operational data within the DSS.**
** ****Provides decision guidance in decision space and provides recommended courses of action and allows users to evaluate other courses of action.**

## MDSS Technology Applications

**Winter Maintenance**

**Emergency Management**

**Traffic Management**

**Hurricane Evacuation**

**Weed Spraying**

**Sweeping Operations**

**Controlled Burns**

**Public Notification**

**Pavement Marking**

**Paving Operations**

**Warning Preparation**

## Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS

**Hurricane Evacuation Subsystem**
**Focused on 24 – 48 hr period **_**prior to**_** gale force winds on the coast**
**Updated every six hours in phase with NHC advisories**

**Uses weather, incident, maintenance and traffic modeling data to show decision makers estimated evacuation rates and****problem areas**
**Between update times, “what if” scenarios can be run to estimate impact of track and intensity changes**

## Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS

**Focused on weather and road conditions as gale force winds, heavy rain, lightning and tornadoes move inland**
**Continuous monitor mode with updates every 5 – 15 minutes**
**Maximum wind, accumulated rainfall, rainfall rate, and lightning rate displayed for key locations designated by emergency managers**

**Tactical Support for Emergency Response Subsystem**

## Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS

**System will be used for timing post-storm responses to ensure safety of crews**
**Storm location and past track displayed**
**Future storm locations with estimatedwind and rainfall forecasts displayed for every 3 hrs out to 12 hours**
**Road condition information constantly updated**

**Tactical Support for Emergency Response Subsystem**

## Recommended Research & Development Areas

**Application of new data fusion techniques to TPC operations to improve 1 – 5 day track and intensity forecasts**
**Optimal methods for utilizing weather information****in traffic models**
**Validation of DSS’s in operational settings**

## The End

_**wagoner@ucar.edu**_
**303-497-8404**