# Presentation: 580972

## History of Forecast-Related Research at NSSL, 1964-2004

- History of Forecast-Related Research at NSSL, 1964-2004

- by
- Charles A. Doswell III
- CIMMS/OU

## What does “forecast-related” mean?

*Any* research contributing basic physical understanding is *potentially* relevant to forecasting
- A “warning” is really a *forecast *- one with a short lead time
- At NSSL currently and in the past, forecast and warning research have been distinct within the organizational structure

## The Current NSSL Mission Statement

*The mission of the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) is to enhance the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) capabilities to provide accurate and timely **forecasts** and **warnings** of hazardous weather events (e.g., blizzards, ice storms, flash floods, tornadoes, lightning, etc.) *
*The NSSL accomplishes this mission,** in partnership with the National Weather Service (NWS)**, through a balanced program of **research to advance the understanding of weather processes, **research to improve forecasting **and warning** techniques**, development of operational applications, and transfer of understanding, techniques, and applications to the NWS and other public and private sector agencies**.*

## Key concepts, as used here

- Connection to NWS operations
*Forecasting* R&D as a distinctly separate topic from NSSL’s warning-related work (primarily radar-associated research, engineering, and technique development)
- Research and technique development using operational tools - *not* field program data

## Some pre-NSSL historical background

- Fawbush & Miller forecast of 1948 re-started tornado forecasting in U.S.
- Formation of the Severe Local Storms unit (SELS) in 1952/1953
- Relocated from Washington, D.C., to Kansas City, MO in 1953
- Don House became supervisor in 1953 - recognized a need for forecast-related research
- SELS *Internal* research program - formalized as National Severe Storms Project (NSSP)

## NSSL’s Roots

- NSSP researchers increasingly alienated from operational SELS forecasters - shift work!
- Moved to a *different floor* in the building from the SELS forecasting unit in 1958
- Field operations
- Tornado research aircraft
- Mesonetwork (H. Wexler, M. Tepper, T. Fujita)
- Weather Radar (WRL in Norman)

## Tornado Research Project P-51

## Weather Bureau Mesonetwork

- Fujita - 1955

## Selected alumni of SELS-NSSP

- Dansy T. Williams
- Chester Newton
- Clayton Van Thullenar
- Jean T. Lee
- James Fankhauser
- Robert G. Beebe
- Charles F. Chappell

## Creation of NSSL

- Exodus of research-oriented staff from SELS/NSSP to Norman (and elsewhere)
- NSSP Spring program came to be centered around WRL in Norman - NSSP moved in 1963, NSSL created in 1964
- NSSL Director, Ed Kessler, emphasized development of weather radar, particularly Doppler radar, for use in storm research - mostly related to the warning problem

## Summary: Pre-NSSL

- Research originally an internal component of the operational arm
- A schism developed as a result of individual clashes and shiftwork
- Research drifted away from the forecasting side
- Ultimately embodied in physical separation

## Events at SELS

- 1965 - Allen Pearson replaces Don House - focused on dissemination of forecasts, *not* forecast-related research - after 11 April “Palm Sunday” tornado outbreak
- 1974 - “Super” tornado outbreak on 3 April - Pearson later requests creation of research unit at SELS for operational forecasting-related research
- 1976 - Formation of Techniques Development Unit (TDU) - Joe Schaefer (Chief), Les Lemon, and Chuck Doswell are NSSL “alumni”

## Slide 13

## Forecast-Connected R&D:  1964-1982 

- Jim Fankhauser studied storm motion in relationship to upper winds - NSSP TM 21 (1964)
- Fankhauser and Chester Newton developed a probability-based storm forecasting method - NSSP TM 22 (1964)
- Stan Barnes developed his objective analysis scheme for surface observations - *JAM* (1964)
- Barnes considered the sources for supercell rotation in the environmental wind profile - NSSL TM 38 (1968)

## Fankhauser studied storm-environment interactions - NSSL TM 39 (1968)
Rex Inman (OU) developed objective methods for operational radiosonde error detection and correction at SELS - NSSL TM 40 (1968)
Inman worked with Horace Hudson to implement operational low-level moisture convergence diagnostic for SELS - NSSL TM 45 (1970)
Barnes enhanced his methods for surface objective analysis - NSSL TM 62 (1973)

- Rex Inman (OU) developed objective methods for operational radiosonde error detection and correction at SELS - NSSL TM 40 (1968)
- Inman worked with Horace Hudson to implement operational low-level moisture convergence diagnostic for SELS - NSSL TM 45 (1970)
- Barnes enhanced his methods for surface objective analysis - NSSL TM 62 (1973)

## Chuck Doswell developed band-pass filtering analysis of operational surface data using the Barnes scheme - NSSL TM 79 (1976) 
Many NSSL staff participated in a multifaceted study of the 24 May 1973 Union City tornado - NSSL TM 80 (1976)
Carolyn Kloth and Bob Davies-Jones explored the relationship between tornado occurrence and the 300 mb jet stream - NSSL TM 88 (1980)
Regular forecasting support for spring field operations - D. Burgess, C. Doswell, J. Weaver, et al.

- Many NSSL staff participated in a multifaceted study of the 24 May 1973 Union City tornado - NSSL TM 80 (1976)
- Carolyn Kloth and Bob Davies-Jones explored the relationship between tornado occurrence and the 300 mb jet stream - NSSL TM 88 (1980)
- Regular forecasting support for spring field operations - D. Burgess, C. Doswell, J. Weaver, et al.

## Summary:  1964-1982

- Maintained physical separation between researchers and forecasters
- Individual scientists worked on topics related directly to forecasting
- New approaches evolved
- *Doppler radar
- Numerical cloud simulations
- *Storm chasing (personal and scientific)

## Developments at SELS/NSSL

- Fred Ostby named NSSFC Director - 1980
- Bob Maddox named NSSL Director - 1986
- New emphasis on *operationally-oriented* forecasting research, nationwide
- Enhanced collaboration with NWS/OUN and SELS
- NSSL mission broadened to include other hazardous weather (e.g., winter weather, flash floods)
- PRE-STORM 85, DOPLIGHT 87, MAP 88/89, STORMTIPE 92 - projects with an experimental forecasting component

## Operations-Connected R&D:  1982-1993

*Experimental Forecast Center* (loosely patterned after original SELS/TDU) - several spring projects, typically operated from NWS/OUN
- Experimental forecast products in addition to regular field experiment operations support
- Multiple agency participation, including SELS and other guest forecasters
- New approaches to severe weather forecast verification

## Research relating to NWP

- Diagnosis of model output - Mark Antolik/ Chuck Doswell
- Mesoscale model initialization (cold pools), updated land use data input for boundary layer  (Dave Stensrud)
- Short-range ensemble forecasting methods - (Harold Brooks, Stensrud)
- STORM-TIPE - Brooks, Doswell, {Lou Wicker}
- Thermodynamic retrievals - Carl Hane

## Process-related research

- Dryline processes - Conrad Ziegler, Hane
- Flash floods - Doswell, Brooks, Phillip Spencer, Stensrud
- Tornadoes - Bob Davies-Jones,  Brooks, Doswell
- Storm-environment interactions - Brooks, Doswell, Jeremy Cooper
- MCSs - Dave Jorgenson, Hane, Ziegler

## Technology and methodology

- Profiler data analysis - Doswell, Phillip Spencer, Laurie Hermes
- Severe weather climatology - Brooks, Doswell
- Satellite data applications - Bob Rabin
- Lightning data - Ron Holle, Raul Lopez, Dave Rust, Don MacGorman, Doswell
- Forecast verification - Brooks, Doswell

## Summary:  1983-1993

- Increased emphasis on research relevant to forecasting
- Development of closer ties between NSSL and SELS/NSSFC
*Experimental Forecast Center* concept used to test ideas in a pseudo-operational mode

## SELS/NSSL Developments1994 - Present

- VORTEX Project - 1994/95
- SELS becomes the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and Joe Schaefer named SPC Director - 1995
- SPC completes move to Norman - 1997
- Jeff Kimpel named NSSL Director - 1997
- Emphasis on intra-Norman collaboration (the Norman Weather Center)

## Forecast-related research 1994-present

- Derecho studies - Stensrud, Mike Coniglio
- Severe weather forecast parameters - Brooks, Doswell, Jeff Craven, Erik Rasmussen
- Analysis methodology - Spencer, Doswell
- Storms and Storm-Environment Interaction - Rasmussen, Lou Wicker, Xiegler, Hane, David Dowell, Ted Mansell, et al.
- Probabilistic forecasting - numerous

## NWP related research
Diagnosis of model output - Jack Kain, Mike Baldwin
Land use and initialization - Stensrud, Todd Crawford, Brooks, Stensrud, Xu, et al.
Ensemble forecasting - Stensrud, Brooks, Kim Elmore, Paul Nutter, Matt Wandishin, Mike Baldwin

- Diagnosis of model output - Jack Kain, Mike Baldwin
- Land use and initialization - Stensrud, Todd Crawford, Brooks, Stensrud, Xu, et al.
- Ensemble forecasting - Stensrud, Brooks, Kim Elmore, Paul Nutter, Matt Wandishin, Mike Baldwin

## Winter weather - Dave Schultz, John Cortinas
Synoptic and mesoscale processes - Schultz, Doswell, Ziegler, Hane, Jorgensen, et al.
New technology and methodology - numerous
Daily weather discussion with SPC
SPC/NSSL Spring projects

- Winter weather - Dave Schultz, John Cortinas
- Synoptic and mesoscale processes - Schultz, Doswell, Ziegler, Hane, Jorgensen, et al.
- New technology and methodology - numerous
- Daily weather discussion with SPC
- SPC/NSSL Spring projects

## Summary:  1994-present

- Tremendous growth in forecast-related research
- Development of numerous diverse collaborations outside of the traditional SELS-NSSL connection
- Reunion of severe storms forecasting and research in Norman
- Norman Weather Center

## Overall Summary

- The Research-Forecasting (R-F) relationship has a checkered history
- The founding of NSSL was associated with a period of minimal R-F interaction
- The need for forecast-related research has *always* been present
- NSSL scientists have been associated historically with important research related to forecasting

## The reunion of the SPC with NSSL is a clear indication that the old breach between research and forecasting has been healed
A measure of that is the rapid growth of R-F collaboration at NSSL/SPC
The current explosion of forecast-related research at NSSL is likely to be fueled even more with the move to the Norman Weather Center on the OU campus 

- A measure of that is the rapid growth of R-F collaboration at NSSL/SPC
- The current explosion of forecast-related research at NSSL is likely to be fueled even more with the move to the Norman Weather Center on the OU campus