# Presentation: 896080

## NOAA Climate Models and Simulation:Activities at GFDL and NCEP

**July 22, 2002 Presentation to CCSPO**

**Ants Leetmaa**
**Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory**
**NOAA/OAR**
**Princeton, NJ**

## NOAA Modeling Goals

**Be world leaders for the production of timely and reliable knowledge, forecasts, and assessments on natural climate variability and anthropogenic changes and in the development of the required earth system models.**
**Work cooperatively in NOAA to advance its expert assessments of variability and change in national and global climate through research, improved models, and products.**

## NOAA Science Advances in Climate Dynamics and Prediction Linked to Computer Power

**1****st**** estimates of effects of 2xCO2**

**1****st**** IPCC coupled model**

**1****st**** sim of chem-trans-radiation of Antarctic O3 hole**

**Start of detection & attribution; multiple GHG forcings; natural variability and forcings important; use of ensembles**

**Attribution of role of O3 depletion in climate change**

**NOAA Science Advances in Climate Dynamics and Prediction Linked to Computer Power**

**Effects of sulfate and balack carbon in sat radiation budget**

**Coupled ENSO fcsts**

**1****st**** sim of H2O,cloud-rad, ice-albedo feedbacks**

**Notes:**
1. Too busy, boxes distributed randomly, too wordy

## Annual Mean Surface Temperature at Time of CO2 Doubling – year 70

**Land warms more than ocean**
**North Atlantic and Antarctic moderate warming**
**These general conclusions still hold**

- R15 atmosphere-ocean coupled model result – **1****st**** IPCC** model

**Annual Mean Surface Temperature at Time of CO2 Doubling – year 70**

## Linking Observed Record to Natural and Anthropogenic Effects

**Beginning of detection and attribution of climate change**
**Part of early 20****th**** century warming may be due to natural variability from several causes**

-          1880         1900          1920          1940          1960          1980          2000
-                                                              Years

- Medium resolution coupled model results

## High Resolution Atmospheric Modeling at GFDL

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**Research on 3-D simulation of hurricanes**

**Development of moveable nested mesh architecture**

**Real case studies/prediction experiments**

**Experimental prediction system: transition to NCEP**

**Studies of hurricane changes with global change**

**High resolution simulation of mid-latitude storms/tracks and links to climate**

## NOAA Contributions to Ocean Modeling

- Development of numerical codes to simulate the ocean

**1970s-1980s**			**Bryan-Cox-Semtner Code**
**1990**					**MOM 1**
**1990s**		NCOM (NCAR) 	   		MOM A (SOC, UK)
- 		POP (Los Alamos)	  **MOM 2**
- 							Hadley Center  (UK)
- 			IGCR (Japan)	**  MOM3**
- 			CSIRO (Aust.)
- 			LLNL (US)
**2000s****	**				**MOM4**

**Notes:**
Arrows are too large
Font illegible (use Arial Black?)

## Projected Area for Progress

- Development of high-resolution models that accurately portray the regional, time-varying transport and storage of heat and carbon.

## NOAA Contribution to National and International Climate Sciences

- The oceans are a primary sink for carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere. Recently, 10 laboratories estimated the magnitude of the oceanic sink, and projected its behavior into the future for different emissions scenarios. Many of these models are descendants of GFDL codes.

**Notes:**
1. Labels (institutions) unreadable. 

## TESTING AND VERIFICATION OF MODELS

- _Models are systematically tested with:_
- Paleoclimate records
- Climate of the 20th century
- Recent (last 50 years) well-documented records
- Seasonal forecasting applications

- Although different models may agree in simulations of current climate, they do not agree on the sensitivity of climate. Especially important are potentially large responses of water vapor, clouds, and precipitation to climate change.

**Notes:**
2nd and 3rd bullet redundant
Changed “to” to “of”, corrected “Paleoclimate”

## Climate Feedback Differences Between GFDL and NCAR Models

**Simulated climate sensitivity**

**Low level cloud changes at 2xCO****2**

**GFDL**

**NCAR**

**Notes:**
1. Added some labels

## Model Improvements Through Comparisons with Observations

**Examples of existing links include:**
**NASA EOS satellite program to measure water vapor, cloud, radiation, aerosol, and hydrological parameters.**
**DOE’s ARM program to provide detailed ground-based observations on clouds and radiation fields**
**The interagency NACIP program for measurement of aerosols**
**Other national/international intercomparison programs**

## Climate Feedbacks and Observations

- Cloud parameterizations are a major source of uncertainty in the climate sensitivity of models.  The availability of measured cloud profiles from radars operated by DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program at four diverse sites is a valuable resource in reducing this uncertainty.

## Major NOAA Modeling Collaborators

- NCAR: Community Climate System Modeling Project

**GFDL**

- National Centers for Environmental Prediction - NWS

- _NCAR/GFDL links:_
- Memorandum of Understanding
- Common oversight
- Regular topical workshops
- Visitors program
- Common modeling framework

- _NCEP/GFDL links_:
- Common modeling framework
- Cooperation in seasonal forecasting

- Research Community through public model releases

**Notes:**
Changed stuff in bulleted lists
What’s “common oversight” mean?

## Slide 15

## Comparison of Computing Power by Climate Center

**1,000**

**10,000**

**100,000**

**1,000,000**

**10,000,000**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**Computing Power**

**Cray C90**

**Cray T90/16**

**Cray T90/24**

**Cray T90/30**

**Cray Y-MP**

**SGI O3800 Cluster**

**SGI O3800 Cluster Upgrade**

**Option Contract**

**Hadley Cray T3Es**

**Hadley NEC SX-6 Cluster**

**Hadley NEC SX-6 Cluster Upgrade**

**Earth Simulator NEC SX-6 Cluster**

**Comparison of Computing Power by Climate Center**

**NOAA/GFDL**
**Hadley Center**
**Earth Simulator**

## Adoption of a single lab-wide modeling framework – the Flexible Modeling System (FMS-GFDL) 
Promotes code sharing within GFDL and with outside collaborators
Streamlines conversion efforts between different computer architectures
Creates common standards and tools
Participating in NASA’s Earth Science Modeling Framework (ESMF) as a possible future community standard for weather and climate models

**Promotes code sharing within GFDL and with outside collaborators**
**Streamlines conversion efforts between different computer architectures**
**Creates common standards and tools**
**Participating in NASA’s Earth Science Modeling Framework (ESMF) as a possible future community standard for weather and climate models**

**New Software Frameworks for Earth System Models**

**NEED: a new framework for working with increasingly complex and interdisciplinary models running on complex computer architectures**

## Modeling Contributions to NOAA Climate Performance Measures 

- Develop climate models with interactive carbon cycles.
- Support routine estimate of carbon sources and sinks
_***NOAA Performance Measure***_***:*****  Document the improvements in accuracy of the understanding of forcings by short-lived atmospheric greenhouse constituents:**
- Reduce uncertainties through model experimentation and comparisons with field studies.
- Explore effects of changing emissions of chemical pollutants on air quality and climate forcing
_***NOAA Performance Measure***_***:*****  Extend and improve predictions of climate variability**.
- Develop and test next generation climate forecast models.
- Explore changes in natural climate variability due to climate change
_***NOAA Performance Measures:***_  **For the Ocean Observing System will consist of the ability of the System to perform the following tasks:**
- Ø     ***Document ocean carbon sources and sinks.***
**Ø     *****Understand and document heat uptake by the ocean.***
**Ø     *****Monitor for abrupt climate change*****.**
- Develop global ocean analyses to support these objectives

**Modeling Contributions to NOAA Climate Performance Measures **

##  Modeling Contribution to NOAA Climate Performance Measures

- Scenarios to explore regional impacts of plausible scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions resulting from changing demographics, land use, and energy and pollutant policies.  Studies of the impacts of change on specific sectors and regions (e.g., impacts in Arctic and on water resources).
_***NOAA Performance Measure***_***:****** *****  Implement new Earth System Models (ESM) to support assessments and provide input to policy makers.  Model improvements will be documented by comparisons to observations and previous and other models using standard statistical techniques.**
- FY2004 Implement ESM-1, with full terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles
- Deliver historical (1850-present) climate forcing fields to community;  these extend current estimates including land use and aerosols
- FY2004 Perform scenario runs in preparation for next international assessment
- FY2005 Report on higher resolution versions of ESM-1 to be used for regional impacts
- Report on performance of fully interactive chemistry physics modules
- FY2006 Implement ESM with fully interactive chemistry

** ****Modeling Contribution to NOAA Climate Performance Measures**

**Notes:**
1. The ESM goals are unrealistically ambitious

## Land Use/Cover Scenarios 

**1920**

**1990**

**Land Use/Cover Scenarios **
**(with Princeton University)**

**Land Use**

**Carbon Storage**

- Models for changing technology, agriculture, land use, demographics, climate

- Scenarios for:
- Carbon storage & net biological productivity
- Surface climate
- Land use
- Hydrology

**Primary vegetation**
**Secondary vegetation**
**Crops**
**Pasture**** **

## Scenarios Exploring Technology – Climate Links (with Princeton University)

**Model estimates of CO2 storage since 1765**

**Scenarios Exploring Technology – Climate Links (with Princeton University)**

**Carbon Sequestration: **use ocean/terrestrial models along with appropriate climate scenarios to explore options.

**Solution Strategies**: use Earth System model to develop and evaluate “solution strategies” for target concentrations taking into account sequestration potentials, technologic advance, demographics.

## Additional Modeling Contributions During the Next 5-10 Years

**Development of next generation non-hydrostatic hurricane model for use in climate studies of potential changes in intensity and distribution and use in operational forecasting at NCEP.**
**Studies of potential changes to extratropical storms in response to climate variability and change**
**Cloud resolving models: addressing questions of the response of tropical moisture and clouds to global warming and the effects of these on climate sensitivity in ways not possible with global models**
**Regular reports on detection and attribution of observed climate between variability and change**
**Improved understanding of oceanic heat uptake and transport**
**Improved seasonal forecasts**

## Focus and approach
Support operational Week 2 to Seasonal-Interannual forecasts
Develop operational Ocean Data Assimilation capability
Leveraging forecast system development between weather and climate models
Develop land surface models with NWP heritage

***Support operational Week 2 to Seasonal-Interannual forecasts***
***Develop operational Ocean Data Assimilation capability***
***Leveraging forecast system development between weather and climate models***
***Develop land surface models with NWP heritage***

**Operational Seasonal Forecasting System Development**

## 2001-2002 Accomplishments
Implementation of NCEP’s Operational Seasonal Forecast Model for the U.S.
Produce routine ENSO forecasts using Equatorial Pacific ocean model and data assimilation
Develop real time global ocean data base and experimental global ocean analysis system
Perform experimental 60 day forecasts
Test land surface and regional climate models

***Implementation of NCEP’s Operational Seasonal Forecast Model for the U.S.***
***Produce routine ENSO forecasts using Equatorial Pacific ocean model and data assimilation***
***Develop real time global ocean data base and experimental global ocean analysis system***
***Perform experimental 60 day forecasts***
***Test land surface and regional climate models***

## 2003-2004 Plans
Participate in Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment
Continue land surface and regional model development
Implement operational coupled ocean-atmosphere system for seasonal forecasts
Make improvements to WK2 to seasonal forecast system
Participate in Earth System Modeling Framework
Perform Regional Reanalysis (1979-present)	

***Participate in Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment***
***Continue land surface and regional model development***
***Implement operational coupled ocean-atmosphere system for seasonal forecasts***
***Make improvements to WK2 to seasonal forecast system***
***Participate in Earth System Modeling Framework***
***Perform Regional Reanalysis (1979-present)******	***