# Presentation: 310688

## Fire Weather User Meeting 2003

- Sponsored by NWS-ABQ

## Outline

- Fire Weather Zone Boundaries
- Data Areas within Fire Weather Zones
- Statistics
- Ventilation Forecasts
- Open Forum

## Fire Weather Zone Boundaries

- Advantages
- More Weather and Climate designed
- New Mexico experiences unique weather patterns
- Weather and Climate designed means better Fuel Model designed
- Fire Weather Forecaster Area = Spot Forecast Area
- Lessens confusion for NWS and Land Agencies
- Well known Boundaries Used when possible
- Forest and District
- County
- Roads
- NFDRS anyone??

## Fire Weather Zone Boundaries

- Disadvantages
- Have to Re-learn boundaries
- Many changes have to be made
- Getting the Word Out and Training

## Proposed Change Map: Political

## Proposed Change Map: Elevation

## Old Zone Map

## New Zone over Old Zone Map

## Slide 9

## NFDRS and Proposed New Zones

## Data Areas within Fire Zones

- New Forecast System is Adaptable....Somewhat
- elevation boundaries
- political boundaries
- geographical boundaries
- Text can Fall Out based on user defined data or edit areas within a fire weather zone
- Local NWS office will coordinate with the customer on these data areas

## Data Areas within Fire Zones

- Advantages
- Create critical areas within a fire zone which have more weight.
- Various ways to create critical areas.
- Create a more Useful Forecast for the Customer.

## Data Areas within Fire Zones

- Disadvantages
- Technologically Challenged
- Can’t create aspect defined data areas (Ex North Slopes) .....2.5 km Grid resolution around 1.5 mile
- Can’t create Fuel Type defined data areas based on GIS overlays
- Local Effects: Above 9000 ft, 8000 to 9000 ft, 6500 to 8000 ft and below 6500 ft can be placed in Zone Text

## Example of Hand Drawn Data Areas

## Example of Elevation Based Data Areas: 9000 feet

## Example of Elevation Based Data Areas: 10000 feet

## Statistics

- Red Flag Verification 2003
- Zones Warned: 150
- Total Zones Occurred: 79
- Warned Zones Verified: 77
- Warned Zone UnVerified: 71
- Unwarned Zones Missed: 2
- POD (Prob of Detection): 0.97
- FAR (False Alarm Rate): 0.47
- CSI (Critical Success Index): 0.51
- Average Lead Time: 5.2 hours

## Slide 18

## Slide 19

## Slide 20

## Statistics

- Spot Forecasts

## Slide 22

## Statistics

- Turn Around Time for Spot Forecasts
- Calculated by subtracting Requested time from Forecast Complete time

## Statistics

- Spot Forecast Feedback
- Feedback either by a faxed observation sheet, use of portable RAWS or verbal via NWS Spot internet program or Phone Call
- Looked at August, September, October, November 2003

## Slide 25

## Statistics

- Feedback
- Hourly afternoon or burn period T,RH and wind (Max T, Min RH, General Wind)
- If needs are critical for overnight hours (Min T, Max RH and General Wind)
- Critical weather such as precipitation duration and accumulation (estimate), Start of upslope or downslope winds and afternoon mixing
- Misc such as snow on the ground and sky cover
- Pertinent information for the burn site
- Slope (ridgetop-mid-valley bottom)
- “Unusual” topography (saddle, chute etc)
- Rule of Thumb Wx
- Burn area defined Topo Maps

## Statistics

- Why?
- Efficiency
- Get Forecast Out Quicker as Forecaster’s use Trends
- Customers wait for forecasts are less
- Forecasters don’t have to guess on what happened thus less busy time spent
- Correct trends applied to good ground truthing  provides more accurate forecasts.

## Ventilation Forecasts

- NWS understands the demand for ventilation forecasts.
- Due to Customer and NWS needs a compromise was struck.
- Special Smoke Management forecast for the 8 designated points during the off season.
- Displayed on the web as a text product
- Issuance of the product at 330 pm
- Can parse with a program

## Example of the Afternoon Smoke Management Product

## Web Page Example

## Ventilation Forecasts

- Future.... will be graphical maps of mixing height and transport winds
- Query Capability by the Customer for site specific forecasts

## Example of Mixing Height Graphic on the Web

## Example of Transport Wind Graphic on the Web

## Ventilation Forecasts

- Future....Future....GACC Met’s????

## Ventilation Forecasts

- Limitations
- Lack of Verification
- Lack of “Direction”
- Science
- Each state has different policies...different entities
- Model data used for initial 1st Guess wide ranging
- Thus you can get day to day changes
- Nature of the Beast.....Subjective Forecasts
- Moral of the Story......Use with a Grain of Salt!!!