# Presentation: 662090

## STATE AND COUNTY CHARACTERISTICS ESTIMATES

- A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE VINTAGE 2003 METHODS AND PROCESSING

## Workshop Overview

- Introduction
- History and general concepts
- State age-sex method and processing
- State and county characteristics method and processing
- Summary and discussion

## History and General Concepts:  History

- 1970s
- Started producing state estimates by selected age groups in the 1970s; added sex later in the ’70s
- 1980s
- Started producing state estimates by single years of age and sex using the _current method_
- Early 1990s
- Released first set of state estimates by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin produced by the _current method_

## History and General Concepts:  History (cont.)

- 2000s
- Released first set of county age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin estimates produced by the _current method_

## History and General Concepts:  General Concepts

- Universes
- Resident
- Civilian vs. Military
- Household vs. GQ
- Institutional vs. Noninstitutional
- Migration
- International, Domestic, and Total
- Ins, Outs, and Net
- Interstate and Intrastate

## History and General Concepts:  General Concepts (cont.)

- Proportional Distribution Technique
- Basic method
- Develop initial version of new estimates
- Create proportions from new estimates that correspond to the estimates to be distributed
- Multiply the proportions by the estimates to be distributed
- Distributing two sets of estimates
- This procedure is done first to one set then to another
- Typically, it is necessary to repeat the back-and-forth procedure several times

## History and General Concepts:  General Concepts (cont.)

- Example – State age-sex estimates – 1 iteration
- Distribute national estimates
- Produce an initial set of state estimates by age and sex
- Sum state estimates [from #1] to the national level by age and sex
- Calculate proportions by dividing each state age-sex cell [from #1] by the corresponding cell from the National sum [from #2]
- Calculate intermediate state age-sex estimates by multiplying the proportions [from #3] by the actual national estimates

## History and General Concepts:  General Concepts (cont.)

- Distribute state estimates
- Take state age-sex estimates from first iteration
- Sum age-sex estimates [from #1] to state totals
- Calculate proportions by dividing each state age-sex cell [from #1] by the corresponding state total [from #2]
- Calculate final state age-sex estimates by multiplying the proportions [from #3] by the actual state totals estimates

## History and General Concepts:  General Concepts (cont.)

- Approaches to creating time-series
- _Estimate interval approach_: the beginning population for the estimate of each year in the time-series is Census 2000
- _Year-to-year approach_: the beginning population for the estimates of each year in the time-series is the estimates for the previous year of the time-series

## History and General Concepts:  General Concepts (cont.)

- Acronyms used in this presentation
- ASRO:  Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin
- SYA:  Single Years of Age
- HH:  Household
- GQ:  Group Quarters

## History and General Concepts:  General Concepts (cont.)

- Race
- 31 categories (2000 Census)
- White
- Asian
- Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander
- All possible combinations
- 4 categories (1990 Census)
- White
- American Indian and Alaska Native
- Asian and Pacific Islander

-  Black

-  American Indian and Alaska Native

-  Black

## State Age-Sex:  Overview

- The basics
- The general method: Ages 0 – 64
- Beginning populations
- Deaths
- Migration
- The general method: Ages 65+

## State Age-Sex:  The Basics

- State population
- SYA (0 – 84, 85+) by sex
- Estimate interval approach to creating time-series

## State Age-Sex:  The General Method

- Calculate preliminary population estimates
- Calculate the civilian beginning populations and add births*
- Subtract deaths*
- Calculate estimated net migration and add*
- Apply sex proportions to get population by sex
- Add military to get resident population
- Estimate the 65+ population*
- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute estimates
- National estimates by age and sex
- State totals estimates

- * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

## State Age-Sex:  Beginning Population

- Start with GUSSIE resident base population
- By SYA and sex
- Shift the age of the base population to age in estimate year
- Add male and female population together
- Add birth data to the youngest ages
- Subtract out the military population to get the final civilian beginning population

## State Age-Sex:  Deaths

- Calculate preliminary estimates of deaths
- Begin with deaths to the resident population by SYA (0-84, 85+) and sex
- Collapse into both-sexes deaths by age
- Sum deaths to estimate intervals (Census date to estimate date)
- Subtract military deaths to obtain preliminary civilian deaths by age
- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute national civilian deaths by SYA from National Estimates

## State Age-Sex:  Migration, Ages 0 - 16

- Develop an estimate of the total school age population (ages 6 to 14) for each estimate year
- Distribute the national estimates for ages 6-14 to the states using proportions developed from school enrollment data

## State Age-Sex:  Migration, Ages 0 – 16 (cont.)

- Develop a set of state school age population estimates under the assumption of no migration
- Survive the cohorts that become the school age population in the estimates year from Census 2000 to each estimate year using deaths from vital registration
- Migration = [#1] – [#2]
- Distribute to SYA 0 to 16

## State Age-Sex:  School-Age Migration Rates

- Begin with the estimates of migration of the school age population from the previous step
- Calculate an estimate of the mid-interval school-age population (6 to 14) for each estimate interval
- Subtract 1⁄2 of the estimate of the cumulative school-age deaths for each estimate interval from the Census 2000 school-age population

## State Age-Sex:  School-Age Migration Rates (cont.)

- Compute the school age migration rates
- Divide the estimates of school-age migration for each estimate interval by the corresponding mid-interval estimate of the school age population

## State Age-Sex:  Migration Differentials

- Begin with census data from 5-year residence question (ignoring sampling variability)
- Calculate in and out migration rates by state and SYA (0-84, 85+) and smooth by age
- Combine in and out rates into a net migration rate
- Convert to annual net-migration rates
- Calculate annual migrants by multiplying annual rate by mid-interval estimate

## State Age-Sex:  Migration Differentials (cont.)

- Sum migrants by cohort and collapse summed migrants ages 6-14 into one group
- Create new migration rates by dividing summed migrants ages 6-14 as a group and 17-64 migrants by SYA by the corresponding population at the beginning of the interval
- Subtract school age migration rate from each SYA migration rate to get migration differentials.

## State Age-Sex:  Migration Differentials (cont.)

- Pro-rate the differentials so they reflect the appropriate estimate interval.

## State Age-Sex:  Migration, Ages 17 - 64

- Begin with school age migration rates
- Calculate migration rates by SYA 17 to 64 by adding the SYA migration differentials to the school age migration rate
- Calculate migration by SYA 17 to 64 by multiplying the single-year rates by an  estimate of the mid-interval population
- Mid-interval population = Base population + 1⁄2 interval deaths

## State Age-Sex:  Population Estimates 65+

- Calculate preliminary population estimates
- Start with Medicare data by state, sex and 5-year age groups 65-84 and 85+
- Extrapolate values for 4/1/00 and missing estimate years
- Control to Medicare totals used in state-county totals estimates
- Distribute by SYA using cohort distributions from Census 2000
- Calculate implied population change since 4/1/00  (estimated population – beginning population) and add to beginning population

## State Age-Sex:  Population Estimates 65+ (cont.)

- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute national estimates

## State Age-Sex:  Summary

- Calculate preliminary population estimates
- Calculate the civilian beginning populations and add births
- Subtract deaths
- Calculate estimated net migration and add
- Apply sex proportions to get population by sex
- Add military to get resident population
- Estimate the 65+ population
- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute estimates
- National estimates by age and sex
- State totals estimates

## State & County Characteristics:  Overview

- The basics
- State
- The general method
- July 1, 2000 beginning population
- Domestic migration
- IRS pre-processing
- State domestic migration
- Race conversion (4 to 31)
- County
- The general method
- Domestic migration

## State & County Characteristics:  The Basics

- State and county population by ASRO
- SYA (0 – 84, 85+) by sex, race (31 races), and Hispanic origin (Hispanic, non-Hispanic)
- Year-to-year approach to creating time-series
- Processed in two separate steps
- State characteristics
- County characteristics

## State Characteristics:  The General Method

- Calculate preliminary population estimates
- Produce July 1, 2000 beginning population*
- Add births, subtract deaths, add net international migration, and add military movement
- Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic out-migration*
- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute estimates
- National ASRO
- State age-sex
- Convert from 4 to 31 races*

- * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

## State Characteristics:  July 1, 2000 Beginning Population

- Calculate preliminary population estimates
- Begin with GUSSIE base
- Convert from 31 to 4 races*
- Remove GQ population to get HH population
- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute previous July 1, 2000 HH estimates
- State: National ASRO and state age-sex
- County: State ASRO and county totals
- Add GQ population to get resident population

- * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

## State Characteristics:  July 1, 2000 Beginning Population  (cont.)

- Race conversion: 31 to 4
- Equi-proportional assignment of persons in multi-race categories to single-race categories (31 to 5 categories)
- Combine Asian and Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander categories into Asian and Pacific Islander (5 to 4 categories)

## State Characteristics:  Domestic Migration - Overview

- Pre-process IRS migration data*
- State domestic migration*
- Calculate state out-migration
- Calculate state in-migration
- County domestic migration*
- Recalculate interstate in- and out- migration
- Distribute interstate migration flows to counties
- Calculate intrastate migration rates & migrants
- Distribute intrastate migration totals to counties

- * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

## State Characteristics:  IRS Pre-processing - Overview

- Obtain administrative record data
- Match across administrative record sources
- Assign characteristics to filer and exemptions
- Compare Y1 and Y2 FIPS codes
- Define migration universe
- Tally exemptions by demographic characteristics

## State Characteristics:  Obtain Administrative Record Data

- Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 1040 files
- Address in 2002 (Y1)
- Address in 2003 (Y2)
- Number of exemptions – filer, spouse, child, parent
- Social Security Numident File
- Collapse records to Census Numident Person Characteristics File (PCF)
- File contains modeled age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for all persons with an SSN

## State Characteristics:  Match Across Administrative Records

- Bureau committed to privacy and confidentiality
- Convert SSN on tax records to Protected Identifier Key (PIK)
- Match Y1 and Y2 IRS files by filer’s PIK
- Match Y1-Y2 IRS file to PCF by filer’s PIK
- Convert filer’s return to individual records for filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions on the tax return

## State Characteristics:  Assign ASRO

- Assign ASRO for Y1-Y2 matched records that match to the PCF
- Age
- Filer and spouse exemptions are assigned filer’s age from PCF
- Child exemptions are assigned to a 19 and under age category
- Parent exemptions are assigned to a 65+ age category

## State Characteristics:  Assign ASRO (cont.)

- Sex
- Filer is assigned filer’s sex from PCF
- Spouse exemption is assigned opposite sex of filer
- Child and parent exemptions are assigned sex by random number generator
- Race and Hispanic origin
- Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s race and Hispanic origin from PCF
- Y1 and Y2 State and County FIPS codes
- Filer, spouse, child, and parent exemptions are all assigned filer’s Y1 and Y2 state and county FIPS codes

## State Characteristics:  Compare Y1 and Y2 FIPS Codes

- Compare by equivalent geography
- Outcomes of comparison
- Y1 only
- Y2 only
- Foreign in- and out-movers
- Inter-state movers
- County-to-county movers (intra-state)
- Non-movers

## State Characteristics:  Define Migration Universe

- Exclude records:
- where record appears only in Y1 or Y2 file
- with a foreign address on either the Y1 or Y2 return
- where Y1-Y2 IRS match does not match to PCF

## State Characteristics:  Tallying Exemptions

- Three different measures are calculated from exemption data
- Inter-state migration rates
- Intra-state migration rates
- County migration shares
- Exemption data come with the following characteristics
- Age 0-19, SYA 20-64, 65+
- Sex
- White, Black, AIAN, API, Hispanic
- See handout

## State Characteristics:  Domestic Migration - Overview

- State domestic out-migration*
- State domestic in-migration*
- State domestic migration flows*

- * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

## State Characteristics:  State Domestic Out-migration

- Calculate a set of state out migration rates
- Out-migration rate = tally #2 / tally #1 (see tally handout)
- If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met
- Expand to full ASRO distribution
- Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is assigned the rate of the category as a whole
- Smooth the out-migration rates by age and perform final adjustment

## State Characteristics:  State Domestic In-migration

- Calculate a set of state-to-state out-migration rates for each state
- Out-migration rate = tally #3 / tally #1 (see tally handout)
- If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met

## State Characteristics:  State Domestic In-migration (cont.)

- Calculate a set of state-specific out-migrants for each state by IRS characteristics
- Out-migrants = Out-migration rate for State 1-State 2 pair * state population for State 1 from previous vintage
- Calculate state in-migrants
- State in-migrants = Σ(state out migrants from each other state to destination state)

## State Characteristics:  State Domestic In-migration (cont.)

- Sum all state in-migrant estimates
- Calculate each state’s in-migration proportion of the all-state sum [#3]
- State in-migration proportion = preliminary state in-migrants / Σ(preliminary state in-migrants)
- Expand to full ASRO distribution
- Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is assigned the rate of the category as a whole
- Smooth the in-migration proportions by age and perform final adjustment

## State Characteristics:  State Domestic Migration Flows

- Calculate final estimates of out- and in-migrants by state (in the process of estimating the population)
- State out-migrants = state out-migration rate * state population at the beginning of the time interval
- State in-migrants = state in-proportion *  ∑(state out-migrants)

## State Characteristics:  Race Conversion (4 to 31)

- Calculate conversion factors for 31 to 4 race conversion from the Census 2000 GUSSIE population
- Apply conversion factors to population in each 4-race category to get population in each 31-race category

## State Characteristics:  Summary

- Calculate preliminary population estimates
- Produce July 1, 2000 beginning population
- Add births, subtract deaths, add net international migration, and add military movement
- Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic out-migration
- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute estimates
- National ASRO
- State age-sex
- Convert from 4 to 31 races

## County Characteristics:  The General Method

- Calculate preliminary population estimates
- Produce July 1, 2000 beginning population
- Add births, subtract deaths, add net international migration, and add military movement
- Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic out-migration*
- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute estimates
- State ASRO
- County totals
- Convert from 4 to 31 races

- * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

## County Characteristics:  Domestic Migration - Overview

- County interstate migration*
- State interstate out- and in-migration
- County interstate out-migration
- County interstate in-migration
- County intrastate migration*
- State intrastate migration
- County intrastate out-migration
- County intrastate in-migration

- * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

## County Characteristics:  State Interstate Out- and In-migration

- Recalculate state-level in- and out-migrants using final out-rates and in-proportions from State Characteristics Estimates processing
- State out-migrants = state out-migration rate * state population at the beginning of the time interval
- State in-migrants = state in-proportion *  ∑(state out-migrants)

## County Characteristics:  County Interstate Out-migration

- Calculate county proportions of state interstate out-migration
- Out-migration prop. = tally #5 / tally #2
- By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data
- No age or sex detail
- Calculate final county interstate outs by multiplying proportions by state interstate out-migration data

## County Characteristics:  County Interstate In-migration

- Calculate county proportions of state interstate in-migration
- In-migration prop. = tally #6 / ∑(tally #6 for all counties within state) (see tally handout)
- By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data
- No age or sex detail
- Calculate final county interstate ins by multiplying proportions by state interstate in-migration data

## County Characteristics:  State Intrastate Migration

- Calculate a set of state intrastate migration rates
- Intrastate-migration rate = tally #4 / tally #1 (see tally handout)
- If there are less than 30 exemptions for an ASRH combination, additional ages are included until the threshold of 30 exemptions is met

## County Characteristics:  State Intrastate Migration (cont.)

- Expand to full ASRO distribution
- Each ASRO cell within a collapsed category is assigned the rate of the category as a whole
- Note:  No age-smoothing
- Calculate state intrastate migrants by ASRO
- State intrastate migrants = state intrastate-migration rate * state population at the beginning of the time interval (previous vintage)
- _Note_: Intrastate Outs = Intrastate Ins

## County Characteristics:  County Intrastate Out-migration

- Calculate county proportions of intrastate out-migration
- Out-migration prop. = tally #7 / tally #4 (see tally handout)
- By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data
- No age or sex detail
- Calculate final county intrastate outs by multiplying proportions by state intrastate migration data

## County Characteristics:  County Intrastate In-migration

- Calculate county proportions of intrastate in-migration
- In-migration prop. = tally #8 / tally #4 (see tally handout)
- By race-origin categories in IRS exemption data
- No age or sex detail
- Calculate final county intrastate ins by multiplying proportions by state intrastate migration data

## County Characteristics:  County Summary

- Calculate preliminary population estimates
- Produce July 1, 2000 beginning population
- Add births, subtract deaths, add net international migration, and add military movement
- Add domestic in-migration and subtract domestic out-migration
- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute estimates
- State ASRO estimates
- County totals estimates
- Convert from 4 to 31 races

## Characteristics Estimates:  Comparison of the Methods

- Processing universes
- Controls
- Processing components
- Base population
- Estimated births
- Estimated deaths
- Estimated migration
- Use of Medicare data

## Issues for the Future:  General

- Which universe(s) should we process in?
- What is the best method for using rates in the estimates?
- What are the appropriate geographic and ASRO levels for projecting components of change?
- What is the best way to calculate domestic migration?

## Issues for the Future:  General (cont.)

- What is the best way to perform proportional distribution and controlled rounding?
- How should we estimate populations for which we have registries (school age population, 65+ population)?

## Issues for the Future:  General (cont.)

- How can we maximize the resources of FSCPE members?
- Information on components of population change?
- Symptomatic indicators of population or component change?
- State-produced population estimates?
- Input from review?

## Issues for the Future:  State Age-Sex

- Should we continue to process using the whole-interval approach?
- Should we process by sex as well as age?

## Issues for the Future:  State & County Characteristics

- Can we move from 1990 race based processing to 2000 race based processing?
- Will person-based IRS migration give us better estimates of domestic movement than return-based migration?
- Are there sources of data that reflect migration other than the IRS data that could be incorporated into the estimates?

## Issues for the Future:  State & County Characteristics (cont.)

- Should we calculate intrastate migrants at the county level instead of calculating them at the state level and distributing to counties?
- Should we continue to use data from the previous vintage of estimates in intermediate processing?