# Presentation: 502988

## Methods to Combine Information from Separate Sources

***Paul VanRaden***
*Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory*
*Agricultural Research Service, USDA*
*Beltsville, MD *
*USA*

## Freeman’s Philosophy

- “Ideally, however, simple methods of estimation are needed.  ...  As solutions to problems are found and computing algorithms developed, perhaps the goal of simplifying estimation can be achieved.” - A.E. Freeman, 1979
- (Conference in honor of C.R. Henderson)

## Statistical Methods

- Least Squares		K. Pearson, 1903
- Selection Index		Hazel, 1943
- Mixed Model (BLUP)	Henderson, 1963
- Posterior Density		Bayes, 1763

## Statistical Formulas

## More Estimates than Data

- MACE (Schaeffer, 1994)
- 1 country progeny tests a bull
- 25 countries want to use the bull
- Best Prediction (VanRaden, 1998)
- 10 daily milk yields measured
- 305 daily milk yields predicted

## Estimates and Reliabilities

## Combine Separate Evaluations

## Simple Cases

## Variances and Covariances

## PTA = PA + MS

- Remove single-trait (national) PA, remove DEpa from total DE
- Combine single-trait to multi-trait
- (Harris and Johnson, 1998; Weigel, 1998)
- Add multi-trait (international) PA
- Process oldest to youngest

## REL for animal, sire, dam

## Multi-trait Productive Life

- Predict PL from culling rate and seven correlated traits that arrive earlier:
- 3 yield traits, 3 composite type traits, SCS
- Include direct and indirect in same matrix
- Process both cows and bulls in age order
- Run at Beltsville instead of Brattleboro
- Fill in other missing traits using multi-trait

## Multi-trait PL Results

-  					    PTA	     REL
- Year	Method	Sex	ST	MT	ST	MT
- 1994	SI		bulls	.83	1.19	50%	53%
- 1996	MACE	bulls 	.83	1.00	54%	73?
- 2000	SI		bulls	.60	 .50	58%	65%
- 2000	SI		cows	.33	.39	29%	33%

## Reliable Evaluations

- Evaluation		Year	Bull	REL Cow	REL
- USDA MCC	1974	SI	80	SI	43
- Cornell		1976	SM	72	SI	43
- Iowa State		1974	---	80	SI	45
- USDA AM		1989	AM	82	AM	46
- Interbull		1995	SM	83	---	---
- ???			2001 ???	84	???	47

## Bulls with Foreign Relatives(from February 2000 Interbull Evaluation)

## Cows with Foreign Relatives(42 progeny tested sons)

- Conant-Acres JY Sweetnes 12151074
- France (14)
- Great Britain (10)
- USA (8 + 7)
- Canada (4)
- Germany, Denmark (2)
- Spain, New Zealand (1)

- Eric-Dew Mars Marcy 10191243
- USA (12 + 2)
- Canada, Germany (8)
- France (5)
- Denmark, Great Britain, Italy, South Africa (2)
- Australia (1)

## Parent Data for MACE

- Reliability of dams from:		Mean   Max
- Belgium				52	84
- Canada				73	96
- Denmark				41	93
- Estonia				39	57
- France				37	61
- Switzerland (Red)		35	80
- The Netherlands		71	96
- United States			77	96

## Correlations of MACE Results

- 					  	  Range
- Corr(SI, BLUP)			.989 to .993
-  Corr(SI REL, BLUP REL)
- Dam REL included		.908 to .977
- Dam limited to 25%		.977 to .992

## Conclusions

- Single-trait evaluations can be combined into multi-trait using selection index.
- Regressions on PTA - PA instead of PTA reduced bias and increased REL for PL.
- MACE evaluations by conversion, selection index, and BLUP were correlated by .99.
- International evaluations could adjust for foreign dams as well as foreign daughters.

## Thank You

- To all of the sources of genetic evaluations
- To George Wiggans and Rex Powell for combining the evaluation files
- To Gene Freeman for showing me that people from all nations can work and learn together.