# Presentation: 534091

## Experimental Global Tropics 

- _Hazards/Benefits Assessment__ __ _

- Update prepared by:
- Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
-    October 29, 2007

## Week 1 Outlook – Valid: October 30 – November 5, 2007

_***Week 1 Outlook – Valid: October 30 – November 5, 2007***_

_**Please note**_**:** Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.

_**1. An increased chance for tropical cyclone development in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal**_**.**** **Active convection across sections of the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, and Arabian Sea along with anticipated weak vertical wind shear indicated by numerical weather forecast guidance increase the prospects for tropical cyclone development in this region. Also, tropical cyclone 5A will likely strengthen and impact waters in the western Arabian Sea, Yemen, and Oman early during the period.
**Confidence: Moderate**
_**2. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for a large region stretching from the central Indian Ocean across the Maritime Continent into the western Pacific Ocean.**_** **Tropical rainfall across the eastern hemisphere has returned to those consistent with La Nina after a brief break earlier in the month due to intraseasonal variability associated with weak MJO activity and interaction with the extratropical circulation. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions continue to become increasingly more consistent with La Nina so rainfall is expected to be above average across this region during the period. Also, the enhanced phase of a weak MJO signal is expected to propagate further eastwards into the eastern hemisphere and further enhance rainfall.
**Confidence: High**
_**3. Tropical storm Noel**_** **will impact waters of the far western Atlantic Ocean, the Bahamas, and potentially Bermuda during the period with areas of heavy rain, high seas, and strong winds._ _

**See **
**Text**

- _SEE TEXT ITEMS:_
**The rainy season across sections of interior Brazil continues to be slow to start. Recently, increased frontal activity has aided rains across this region and observational evidence and numerical weather forecast guidance indicate that this trend should continue and beneficial rains should increasingly develop over the next few weeks alleviating some of the very dry conditions in this region. **

## Week 2 Outlook – Valid: November 6 - 12, 2007

_***Week 2 Outlook – Valid: November 6 - 12, 2007***_

_**Please note**_**:** Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.

**See **
**Text**

_**1. An increased chance for tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Bengal**_**.**** **Active convection across sections of the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal, along with anticipated weak vertical wind shear indicated by numerical weather forecast guidance increase the prospects for tropical cyclone development in this region.
**Confidence: Moderate**
_**2. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for a large region stretching from the eastern Indian Ocean across the Maritime Continent into the western Pacific Ocean.**_** **Tropical rainfall across the eastern hemisphere has returned to those consistent with La Nina after a brief break earlier in the month due to intraseasonal variability associated with weak MJO activity and interaction with the extratropical circulation. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions continue to become increasingly more consistent with La Nina so rainfall is expected to be above average across this region during the period. Also, the enhanced phase of a weak MJO signal is expected to propagate further eastwards into the eastern hemisphere and further enhance rainfall.
**Confidence: High**

- _SEE TEXT ITEMS:_
**The rainy season across sections of interior Brazil continues to be slow to start. Recently, increased frontal activity has aided rains across this region and observational evidence and numerical weather forecast guidance indicate that this trend should continue and beneficial rains should increasingly develop over the next few weeks alleviating some of the very dry conditions in this region. **