# Presentation: 615462

## CDC Cover

## CDC’s role in NOAA and focus
Basic research in support of Climate Services 
Applied research in support of Climate Services 
Experimental Climate Services Research
CDC-NWS Climate Services Partnerships
Improved Observations in support of Climate Services 

**CDC’s role in NOAA and focus**
**Basic research in support of Climate Services **
**Applied research in support of Climate Services **
**Experimental Climate Services Research**
**CDC-NWS Climate Services Partnerships**
**Improved Observations in support of Climate Services **

**Outline of Talk**

**Notes:**
This figure is here because the Idea of connections between time scales is inherent to, suffuses, our thinking at CDC – vs. focus on particular time scales

Goals: 1) Improve understanding and predictions of the relationships between climate variations and high-impact weather events (the “weather-climate” connection). 
2)  Increase understanding and capabilities to predict short-term climate variability, decadal to centennial variations, and their interconnections.
3) Develop improved NOAA climate products and information, especially at regional scales: CDC webpage and maproom
 Experimental products

## CDC’s role

**Diagnosis, *****(n)***** ****An investigation or **
**analysis of the cause or nature **
**of a situation or problem.**
**Diagnostic studies play a fundamental**
**role in linking observations, theory,**
**modeling, and applications.**

**  ****Aid in interpreting the dominant causes of climate variability**
**  ****Identify changes necessary to improve climate models and forecasts**
**  ****Develop new climate products that will enhance NOAA climate services**

**Role in NOAA**

**Notes:**
Small Group, about 14 federal staff, 40+ university/join institute, but strong commitment to NOAA mission and to improving predictions

Some longstanding partnerships with operational centers – CPC, WRCC in particular; we are also an ARC= OGP applied research center; Recently – CBRFC which I’ll mention more about later, and cultivating others (part of why I’m here)

While we work on many topics that are global scale or in far flung places, we also live in the west, and so many of us have a particular interest in Western climate issues.

But we’re not operational, don’t want to be, want to have these partnerships so we can develop predictions and products, do proof-of-concept studies, hand off what works, then go back to our toys...

Also partnerships with OBP RISA’s, WWA, but also Pac NW, Arizona/SW, and 

Most external funding also from NOAA – e.g., OGP, which helps maintain NOAA mission focus, and involvement in larger NOAA programs, initiatives, etc

## Focus

**CDC research focuses especially on climate phenomena that have major impacts on society and the economy.**

- Drought in Great Plains, ca. 1935

- California floods during 1998 El Niño

**Focus**

**advance national capabilities to interpret the causes of climate variability **
**improve models used for climate assessments and predictions**
**contribute to the development of new NOAA climate capabilities, products and services**

**Notes:**
NOAA mission focus – research to improve NOAA product lines

## Goal 1: Weather-Climate Connection

***Where will storm track be for the next few weeks?   ***
***When will an arctic outbreak affect the east coast?  ***
***When will the rain (drought, heat wave, etc.) end?  ***
***How will a climate shift affect the weather in a particular region?***

**MJO**

- Pineapple
- Express

**40” of rain/**
**        ****7 ****days**

- The Weather-Climate Connection

- Flooding on the Russian River

**Notes:**
NOTE relevance to “hazards assessment”  for example, 

One of these is the Madden Julian Oscillation, an eastward- propagating tropical disturbance which may result in west coast storms a week or more after onset

These storms sometimes called “pineapple express” and have big economic and safety consequences.

## Science challenges - Goal 1

- Pineapple
- Express

** ****Forecasts depend on both initial and boundary conditions.**
**At first, initial conditions dominate.**
** ****Later, boundary effects provide the source for predictability.**
** ****Results show observed variability**
**(top) vs. model forecasts (bottom).**
** ****In observations, disturbances propagate to east and persist; in the model, they propagate west and decay rapidly.**

**Science Challenges **

**Notes:**

The MJO is a specific case, more generally, it’s a challenge to better understand how boundary conditions affect forecasts.  

Forecasts depend on both
initial and boundary conditions.
 At first, initial conditions dominate.
  Later, boundary effects provide the 
source for predictability.

The models don’t accurately represent these propagating disturbances.

For example, knowing the state of ENSO matters later days

##    Tropical Pacific- West Coast Rainfall Relationships

**When heavy tropical**
**rainfall shifts to just east**
**of the dateline ...**

**It is followed two weeks later by an increased probability of heavy rainfall in California.**

**Notes:**
One of these eastward propagating disturbances is tropical rainfall

## Assessing the Predictability of ENSO Impacts

**Analyses of NCEP reanalysis and a super ensemble of NCEP GCM simulations indicate that changes in the distribution of precipitation and atmospheric circulation anomalies during winter are stronger but more variable in El Niño than in La Niña. Although the mean response is smaller, atmospheric conditions may be more predictable during La Niña than ****during with El Niño**** **

*JFM-mean precipitation*

***Green (orange) shading indicates an increase (decrease) of the probability of extreme values with shading contours  of  5% and 25%. ***

***El Niño******	******	******	******La  Niña***

_**http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/**_

**Notes:**
The change in the probability of extreme values of JFM-mean precipitation estimated                  from the AGCM for El Niño (left) and La Niña (right) ensembles. Green (orange)                  shading indicates an increase (decrease) of the probability of extreme values. The                  shading contours are 5% and 25%. 
robability density functions (PDFs) in the left panel illustrate the impact of                   changes in the mean on the probability of extreme values (left panel). PDFs in the                   right panel illustrates impact of changes in both the mean and the spread on the                   probability of extreme values. Green (orange) shading indicates an increase                   (decrease) of the probability of extreme values.

## Opportunities in Climate Weather Connection Research in Support of Climate Services

- Beyond about 10 days, a (the) major source for predictive skill is tropical heating.
- Both the analysis and forecast probability distributions can be improved by advances in ensemble predictions and data assimilation.
- Accurate estimation of extreme event risks will require large ensembles of model runs.**	**
- 	Bottom line: there is a scientific basis to expect improvements in the quality and precision of forecasts from a week to season in advance.

**Opportunities in Climate ****Weather Connection Research ****in Support of Climate Services**

## Goal 2: S-I and Decadal Variability

**	****	****	****  ****Improve Understanding/Predictions of Short-term Climate Variability, Decadal to ****Centennial Variations, and their Interconnections**

- Pineapple
- Express

-   *To promote public understanding of climate variations.*
*   **To provide credible information to enhance decision making.*
*   **To assess climate detectability and predictability.*
*   **To develop prediction tools based on scientific reason.*
*   **To advance climate attribution and prediction via partnerships*.

**US Precip Since 1895**

**US Temp Since 1895**

**Notes:**
Drought, for example, is a major topic of interest;  

The Western governor’s association has recently solicited NOAA to develop a partnership to design a drought monitoring network, related to the proposed National Drought Preparedness Act,   CDC expects to be involved in that 

This monitoring would serve as a prelude to prediction – just as monitoring the ENSO region served as a prelude to predicting ENSO.  But of course, monitoring drought itself doesn’t monitor the forcing agents that we think are driving drought – those are likely out in boundary conditions in other places.
We’re also involved in understanding the predictability of drought – which is to say the slowly varying system
So the next things I’m going to tell you about relate to our understanding of slowly varying climate conditions, and trends... and leading indicators of those trends.

The next figure below shows where those sources/forcing factors are....

## Role of tropical oceans

***Are the Tropical Oceans Responsible for Recent Climate Extremes & Trends?***

- The Warming tropical “warm pool”

- The Strengthening El Niño

-   Continental Warming

- Tropical ocean warming

**Notes:**
The top shows recent temp trends – the middle shows recent (30 yr?) tropical ocean warming

## Slide 12

**Notes:**
Top shows the same ENSO pattern as a the last slide
Middle shows the warm pool 
Focus on the bottom, which shows precipitation index for Colorado since 1945 --- 90’s were relatively wet, as have been much of the last 20; alos tru of much of the west. 

– is this related to the trend in the warm pool??? Or the increasing intensity of EN?  
CDC is doing studies to find out – are patterns in one part of the pacific or the other forcing the pattern in the west?

## Ocean fingerprints

**Ocean Fingerprints on Surface Climate**

**Warm “warm pool”**

**    ****El Niño**

**Precip**

-   **Temp**

**Notes:**
Impact of warm warm pool +climo vs warm warm pool + EN (check)

## Perfect Ocean for Drought

**The “Perfect Tropical Ocean” for Sustained U.S Drought**

***Multi-year La Niña ***
***       ******since 1998***

-  ***Unusual warmth***
***of the “warm pool***

**Notes:**
Explain hovmiller diagram;
 most recent;....cold across Nino regions

## SLP & SST Patterns of Variability

**ENSO**

**PDO**

- Regressions: SLP – Contour; SST Shaded

- From Mantua et al. 1997, BAMS; but Newman 2003, J. Clim.

**Notes:**
ENSO based regressions based on the Cold Tongue Index (SST anomaly timeseries in the tropical Pacific.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) based on the time series associated with the leading pattern of variability in the North Pacific.

Artifact vs internal oscillation; therefore a “trailing” indicator of tropics, not  a leading indicator for climate in most areas – may be important for ocean ecology though
But it is important for precipitation on the margins of the west coast – where many people live!

(beginning to have a more nuanced idea of where this phenomena gives us predictive capabilities – could lead to studies with specific user groups and operational services)

## Decadal Research: Key points

- There is a long-term tendency toward warming of the global oceans, but the spatial distribution is quite non-uniform. This spatial structure can have huge implications for regional climate variability.
- A significant component of the observed trends in the extratropical atmospheric circulation is due to trends in the global oceans.
- Additional predictability likely exists through various mechanisms
**	****Results indicate that global ocean observations (subsurface, Indian Ocean) and climate models that can replicate **_**details**_** of SST patterns will be necessary to enhance NOAA’s capability for regional climate predictions or projections.**

## Experimental Climate Divisions

**Hydroclimatic divisions based on multivariate analysis of the annual cycle of precipitation**
**Experimental divisions explain more than half the average local precipitation variance at individual stations ****(*****symbols ≥50% filled)***

**Experimental ****Climate Divisions**

_**http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~kew/SWcasts/**_

**Notes:**

An example that relates to user’s needs for information and how it relates to their management problems is climate divisions
Another example:  Navajo Tribal Natural Resource agency

## Experimental Seasonal Forecasts

**Web based experimental seasonal forecasts verification, and assessment up to six months into the future, based on four different SST forecasting techniques (CCA Method, NCEP Model, IRI Model, Linear Model), the average, and persistence. **

**Statistical forecasts of atmospheric variables from relationships between projected tropical SSTs and a multiple GCM ensemble dataset with monthly varying observed global SSTs from 1950-99. **

_**http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~gtb/seasonal/**_

## Advances in Week 2 Forecast Skill

**A new method for producing probabilistic surface temperature and precipitation forecasts using statistics of past errors from a large database of historical forecasts to correct for biases in a frozen version of the model.   This approach yields week 2 forecasts that are significantly more skillful than the current operational NCEP/CPC 6 to 10 day products. **

_**http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~jsw/refcst/week2/**_

**Notes:**
CDC is undertaking a "reforecasting" effort, a companion effor to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Ensemble  forecasts will be run over  the last 20+ years using initial conditions from the reanalysis and a recent, unchanging version of NCEP's medium range forecast model (MRF). So far, a 15 member ensemble has been completed from for the months of November-May 1979-2001. Details of the model  configuration can be found here .  Go   here for a web form to download the data. You can also access the forecast files directly at ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/refcst/ensdata. Real-time probabilistic forecasts, calibrated using the forecast archive are available .Why undertake a "reforecasting" effort if NCEP runs a continually improved version of the model? Reasons include: Improved medium-range weather forecast products . In order to diagnose and make effective corrections to  forecast errors, a long time series of forecasts from an unchanged model is necessary.  It is likely that  effective statistical corrections to forecasts from an older version of the  MRF will allow it to outperform newer versions of the MRF without statistical post-processing at long leads. Improved probabilistic forecasts of extreme events . These events occur rarely by definition. Accurate probabilistic forecasts require a database of many  extreme events.  The events that are predictable must be distinguished from events that are not predictable,  and calibrated probabilities must be developed for the predictable events  using the long time series of ensembles. Diagnosing model errors . Especially for phenomena with low-frequency variability, a long time series  of forecasts are necessary in order to diagnose model errors.  This information about model error can be used by NCEP to develop  future versions of the medium-range forecast model. 

## CDC - Dodge City NWS Office Collaboration

**Collaborative research to link weather and climate phenomena, and to anticipate errors in Week 2 predictions in various forecast models. **
**This collaborative effort contributes directly to the "Special 2 week weather outlook" produced using probability distributions of atmospheric circulation and other variables from Week 2 ensemble model forecasts**
**Initial projections are diagnosed and modified to account for model biases using a suite of CDC WWW-based products, including atmosphere angular momentum and outgoing longwave radiation products.**

_**http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/**_

## Opportunities to transition applied research into operational climate services

**The transition from research to operations is resource limited**
**Engaging operational partners is critical to facilitate the handoff from CDC**
**Commitments to maintain existing operational products can hamper adoption of new or enhanced climate productions **

## Experimental Climate Services guiding development of improved climate products and information, especially at regional scales

**Case studies **
**Interactions with new and potential users**
**Two-way communication and learning**
**Developing new lines of  research and products based on these interactions**

**Notes:**
Experimental climate services   
Develop new products to benefit science and society
NOAA-CIRES Western Water Assessment

## TheirFocus

**Experimental Climate Services: Overcoming barriers to the use of climate information**

***Our Challenge***

## Western Water Assessment: South Platte Case Study

- Funded by NOAA/OGP, partnership of CDC and CU/CIRES.
- Assessment of sensitivities and vulnerabilities to climate variability. Key findings:
- Natural resources in the South Platte (ecosystems, water) are intimately linked with climate variability.
- Climate variability is only partially documented.
- NOAA’s current means of organizing
- 	climate information (by Clim. Divisions)
- 	is inadequate.
- New opportunities for climate
- 	information to be used in decision
- 	processes for water (and other sectors).
- Limited applications of current
- 	information on climate variability, but
-  	potentially many diverse and useful products could be developed.

## Identifying entry points for climate information in the decision process 

- New use: In stream flows to support the recovery of endangered fish are new issues in reservoir management.
- Opportunity:  Reservoir managers are seeking new tools to help in a more complicated job, and thus open to trying to using climate information

**Identifying entry points for**** climate information in the decision process **

- Colorado Pike Minnow

## Reservoir Calendar

- <date/time>

**Summer season forecast for Peak Augmentation planning**

**Provide**** for late Summer/early Fall ****irrigation**** while maintaining target flows**

**Operational issues**

**Potential use of forecasts**

**Legend:**

**Next water year runoff unknown, reserve water until February snowpack observations**

**Winter season precipitation forecast for Fall release decisions**

**Winter releases based on  January/February snowpack observations**

**Planning Process**

**Winter/Spring forecast for Winter release decisions**

**Peak Flow Augmentation - fill curve**

**Week 2 forecasts for Peak Augmentation**

**Peak Flow Augmentation releases**

**Plan releases for Summer irrigation & hydropower**

**Week 2 forecasts for Summer irrigation & hydropower release decisions**

**Reservoir Management Decision Calendar**

**Provide**** for Summer ****irrigation**** & hydropower needs while maintaining target flows**

**Water Year Planning****	****	****	****	****	****           Next Water Year Planning **

**Ray et al. (2000)**

## Real time experimental streamflow forecast

- Confluence of user studies and several research projects:
- CDC’s MRF “reforecast,” downscaled to basin scale by WWA
- Downscaled forecasts used in USGS suite of hydrologic models, provided to CBRFC since January 2003
- CBRFC implementing experimental forecasts this spring
- Reservoir manager partners agree to consider and evaluate the product when available
- Document and assess the process of how this information is used in their decisions
- Link to operational partners occurred fairly early to improve potential to transfer to operational products
- Includes NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (John Schaake) to develop tools that may ultimately be used in the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

## Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Hydroclimatic Conditions

- <date/time>

**Tree-Ring Reconstructions ****of Hydroclimatic Conditions**

**http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/streamflow/**

## Rapid Response to the Recent Drought

**Create and regularly update summaries of current climate information and outlooks monthly**
**Presentations at user meeting and distribution of summary sheets**
**User focused research addressing questions related to current climate conditions**** **

## Experimental Climate Services Pathways 

**Interdisciplinary studies of user needs, such as the Western Water Assessment, can help NOAA to identify *****science***** priorities for developing and improving its climate services.**
**There is a strong and growing demand for climate information. The demands exceed our current routine delivery capabilities.**
**There is an urgent need to transition research advances into routine operational products, and to establish more effective means of communication, whether through NOAA or other providers.**
**To most effectively and efficiently develop climate services, NOAA cannot “go it alone”. Sustained partnerships with universities and other public and private entities will be crucial in achieving this goal.**

**Notes:**
The transition from research into operations is a weak link right now.

##  WWW-based Interactive Plotting and Analysis

**Monthly/Seasonal Mean Composites **
**Linear Monthly/Seasonal Correlations **
**Daily Composites **
**US Climate Division Maps **
**Seasonal Forecasts **
**ENSO Climate Comparisons **
**ENSO Climate Risks **
**Time-section Plots **
**Wavelets **
**Chi Corrected Heating Atlas **
**Daily Data Plots **

**Plot Accumulated US Precipitation **
**Obtain Monthly/Seasonal Time-series **
**US Climate Division Correlations **
**US Station Climatologies **
**ENSO Linear Signal **
**CCM3 Composite Page **
**NCEP Reanalysis Atlas **
**GFDL Atlas **
**Climate Indices**_**http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/PublicData/getpage.pl**_

## Ensemble Forecast Visualization

_**http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~gtb/ensemble/**_

**Ensemble Forecast ****Visualization**

## Hydroclimatic Monitoring

**Hydroclimatic Monitoring**

_**Integrated Hydroclimatic Monitoring**_
_**Current Water Year Streamflow/Snowpack**_
_**Visualization of Historical Streamflow Variations**_

_**Comparison of Historical Streamflow Variations**_** **
_**Flow Duration Curve**_
_**Comparison of Western US Streamflow**_
_**Colorado Experimental Snowpack Outlook: 2003**_

## Experimental Climate Services Opportunities

- Build on potentially predictable aspects of climate
- Experimental monitoring products and climate forecasts
- Value added analyses and visualization tools (web-based)
- Seeking to make both more appropriate to users’ needs
- User studies and societal interactions (new & potential users)
- For two-way learning on needs for climate information
- Prospect for niches in which prediction skill is useable
- Western Water Assessment and other regional foci
- Potential for more interaction with NWS

**Notes:**
But we’re not operational, don’t want to be, want to have these partnerships so we can develop predictions and products, do proof-of-concept studies, hand off what works, then go back to our toys...

## Training Workshops on Climate Variability for local and regional weather forecasters

**The purpose of the training workshops is **
**to familiarize regional WFO personnel on available climate forecasts and information **
**to provide information on what is known about regional climate variability and teleconnections to the region.  **
**to allow CDC to become more familiar with the climate information needs and interests of local WFOs**

**Training Workshops on Climate Variability for local and regional weather forecasters**

## Participation in CPC Conference Calls

**CDC participates in regular teleconference leading up to release of CPC ENSO diagnostic discussions, monthly /seasonal climate outlooks, and drought monitor.**** **
**CDC researchers contribute to expert assessments of the current and expected future state of tropical Pacific SST anomalies, the impacts of these SSTs on the climate of North America over the next season or two while considering, the role of SSTs outside the tropical Pacific and antecedent land surface conditions.**

## Formalization of the CDC - CPC Partnership 

**CDC has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with CPC and NCEP to support collaborative efforts to advance NOAA's capabilities in climate monitoring and predictions**
**Cooperative activities will ensure that the existing scientific expertise at each institution is optimally utilized to accelerate progress in the development of NOAA Climate Services.  **
**Intended to foster more rapid technology transfer from applied research and experimental products at CDC into operational climate services at CPC. **

## Improved observations in support of climate services 

**Improved drought monitoring is key to meet regional to local needs for climate services**
**Drought measures that extend across meteorologic and hydrologic drought are needed for proactive responses and impact mitigation**
**A coordinated central region mesonet to monitor hydroclimatic conditions is critical to meet the NOAA climate services goal to “*****Provide improved skill of climate variability forecasts, increased number, accuracy and region specificity of North American climate products, reduce  uncertainty regarding long-term climate projections.****** ... “ [ NOAA SP, Mission Goal 2] ***

## The End

***The End***

## Requested Service: Explaining Climate Conditions to Enhance Climate Forecasts

**Provide regular and systematic explanation for current and evolving climate conditions, particularly for climate extremes (droughts, floods)**
**Provide diagnostic assessments of operational climate forecasts performance to identify opportunities for improvement **
**Operational production of a critical decision making resource information needed by regional decision makers and resource managers to reduce vulnerabilities,**
**NOAA’s capability to provide such information at both national and regional levels is a critical step to meet the growing demand for information on regional climate variability and change.**