# Presentation: 920418

##  Brian McInerneyHydrologistNational Weather ServiceHydrologic OutlookMay 2005

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Temperature

## April Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal2005 vs. 1983

- 0.5 degrees cooler than average

- April 2005

- 3.3  degrees cooler than average

- April 1983

## May  Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal2005 vs. 1983

- 1.4 degrees warmer than average

- Through May 8th, 2005

- 1.5  degrees cooler than average

- Through May 8th, 1983

## May  Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal1983

## Western US Temperature Departure from Normal

- April 2005

- April 2004

## Western US Precipitation Departure from Normal

- April 2005

- April 2004

## Western US Precipitation Departure from Normal

- May 1st  - 8th , 2005

## Western US Temperature Departure from Normal

- May 1st – 8th , 2005

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Precipitation

## PrecipitationApril 2005

## Utah and neighboring statesSeasonal Precipitation 2005 Water Year

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Water Supply

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes

- Much Above Normal
- Above Normal
- Normal
- Below Normal
- Much Below Normal

- May 1st 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
- Utah Area River Basins

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Bear River Basin**

- Logan

- 107%

- Bear River

- Bear Lake

- Woodruff

- 108%

- Ut/Wy
- Stateline

- 109%

- Blacksmith Fork

- Hyrum

- 121%

- Great Basin April Streamflow volume 120%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Weber River Basin**

- Pineview Res.

- 109%

- Gateway

- 134%

- East Canyon Res.

- 142%

- Ogden River

- Lost Creek Res.

- 102%

- Weber River

- Chalk Creek

- 111%

- Oakley

- 122%

- Rockport Res.

- 124%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Six Creeks River Basin**

- Jordan River

- Little Cottonwood Creek

- 138%

- Big Cottonwood Creek

- 139%

- Mill Creek

- 121%

- Parleys Creek

- 132%

- Dell Fk.

- 132%

- City Creek

- 136%

- Emigration Ck.

- 133%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Provo River Basin**

- Utah Lake

- Woodland

- 145%

- Jordanelle Res

- 142%

- Deer Creek Res

- 143%

- American Fork

- 184%

- Castilla

- 130%

- 138%

- Provo River

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Green River Basin**

- Lake Powell Res.

- 108%

- Green River

- 98%

- Price River

- Strawberry Res.

- 144%

- Starvation Res.

- 127%

- Scofield Res.

- 104%

- Colorado River

- Duchesne

- 146%

- Myton

- 183%

- Upper Stillwater

- 159%

- Randlett

- 209%

- Moon Lake

- 154%

- Tabiona

- 124%

- Red Fleet Res.

- 157%

- Flaming Gorge Res.

- 90%

- Green River Basin April Streamflow volume 200%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Sevier River Basin**

- Hatch

- 300%

- Kingston

- 247%

- 229%

- Cedar City

- 290%

- Sevier River East Fork

- Piute Res.

- 238%

- Minersville

- 247%

- Beaver River

- Beaver

- 185%

- Clear Creek

- Sevier River

- Sevier

- 209%

- Gunnison

- 195%

- Salina Creek

- Ephraim Creek

- Sevier Lake

- Sevier River Basin April Streamflow volume  270%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- May 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Virgin River Basin**

- Santa Clara River

- Virgin River North Fork

- Virgin River East Fork

- Pine Valley

- 345%

- Littlefield, AZ

- 351%

- Virgin

- 352%

- Hurricane

- 348%

- Virgin River Basin April Streamflow volume 445%

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Flood Potential

## -> Future Time 

- -> Future Time

_**Today’s Conditions **_** **
**River / Res. Levels**
**Soil Moisture**
**Snowpack**

**1971**

- Start with Today’s Conditions - Create several possible future streamflow patterns -  Based on historical climate.

- Future Streamflow

- Past  <-

**How The CBRFC Produces a Forecast**

- Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

## -> Future Time 

- -> Future Time

- Future Streamflow

- Past  <-

- Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

**MAY**

**Determine a most likely forecast **

- FLOW

**How The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC Produces a Forecast**

## Increased Flood Potential

- Sevier River Basin

- Coal Creek River Basin

- South Facing Uinta Mountain Streams

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Snow

## Hydrologic OutlookBear River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic OutlookWeber River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic OutlookProvo River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic OutlookDuchesne River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic OutlookSevier River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic OutlookVirgin River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Peak Flow Forecast

## Hydrologic OutlookGreat Basin Peak Flow Forecasts

## Hydrologic OutlookUpper Colorado Basin Peak Flow Forecasts

## Hydrologic OutlookLower Colorado Basin Peak Flow Forecasts

## Hydrologic OutlookUpper Colorado Basin Peak Flow Forecasts

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Short Term Forecast

## Hydrologic OutlookShort Term Forecast

- Continued wet cool weather through  May 13th,
- Rainfall amounts of 0.50 inches to 1.00 inch daily possible
- Warming this weekend (Sunday May 16th) – temps in the 80’s north and 90’s south
- Additional system moving into area on Monday, May 17th cooling temps and halting strong melt
- Every warming trend gets warmer as we move into summer
- Past significant flood scenarios produced an extended continuous warmer than normal  temperature range

- Click for Satellite

**www.weather.gov**

## Spring Runoff

- Spring climate is dictating the runoff scenario
- Soil moisture is close to saturation in the south
- Soil moisture is saturated in the Cache Valley
- This is producing greater runoff efficiency
- A moderately cooler and wetter spring has slowed melt of upper elevation snows
- Snowpack is accumulating above 8500 ft.
- Snowpack below 8500 ft. is melting, but at a reduced rate of 0.50 inches to 1.00 inches per day for the past seven days
- Snowpack is remaining static above 9000 ft. in the south, and melting at a rate of 0.25 to 1.00 inches per day
- Continued rainfall saturates lower soil moisture
- Flood events have already occurred in the Cache Valley and Brigham Creek due to 2-3 inches of precipitation over 24 hours
- Small scale flooding around the Blacksmith Fork River and small streams in the area
- Flooding due to reservoir releases below Cutler Reservoir on the Bear River

## Forecast UpdatesContact the CBRFC (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center)

- Forecast Services
- Up to the minute forecast updates
- Hourly, daily, and monthly time scales
- Reservoir inflow
- Peak flow forecasts

- _[www.cbrfc.noaa.gov](http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/)_

- Contact
- David Brandon
- Hydrologist in Charge
- 801-524-5130
- Steve Shumate
- Development and Operational Hydrologist
- 801-524-5130

## Contact Information

- Additional Information
- Contact
- Brian McInerney
- Hydrologist
- National Weather Service
- 801-971-2033 c
- _[brian.mcinerney@noaa.gov](mailto:brian.mcinerney@noaa.gov)_
- http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/river/presentations/