# Presentation: 524829

## THORPEX: 

- THe Observing system and Predictability Experiment –
*A World Weather Research Program*

**INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM OBJECTIVES**
**SCIENCE GOAL:*****	***
**Promote research leading to new techniques in:****	****  **
***	******	******	******	******Observations (OBS), ***
***	******	******	******	******Data assimilation (DA), ***
***	******	******	******	******Forecasting (FCST), and ***
***	******	******	******	******Socioeconomic Applications (SA*****)**
***SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS***
**SERVICE GOAL:**
- 	**Accelerate improvements in utility of forecasts for high impact weather**
**THORPEX ANSWER:**
- 	**Develop new paradigm for weather forecasting through**
- 		Enhanced collaboration
- 					on international level
- 					between research & operations

## STATUS OF PLANNING

**International Science Plan:****	**
**	**Completed & accepted (Dec. 2005), 51 pages
**International Implementation Plan (TIP):****	**
**	**Completed & accepted (Febr. 2005), 93 pages
**US THORPEX Plan**
**	**First Draft ready in Aug. 2004
- 	Under revision
**NOAA THORPEX Science & Implementation Plan**
**	**Completed in June 2003, 52 pages
***	***

## NOAA SERVICE GOAL: ACCELERATE IMPROVEMENTS IN 3-14 DAY FORECASTS3-7 day precipitation forecasts8-14 day probabilistic daily weather forecastsNOAA SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS

- 		       **NEW NWP**
- Sub-systems developed in coordination
- End-to-end forecast process
- Strong feedback among components
- Two-way interaction
- Error/uncertainty accounted for

**	****     ****TRADITIONAL NWP **
- Each discipline developed on its own
- Disjoint steps in forecast process
- Little or no feedback
- One-way flow of information
- Uncertainty in process ignored

***INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE***

**SYSTEM**

**SOCIOEC.**

**SOCIOEC.**

**SYSTEM**

## TIP

***CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES***

***TIP – “OBSERVING SYSTEM”***

***TIP – “DATA ASSIMILATION...”***

***TIP – “PREDICTABILITY &***
***DYNAMICAL PROCESSES”***

***TIP – “SOCIAL & ECONOMIC***
***APPLICATIONS”***

**TIP**

**NTSIP**

**SOCIOECON.**

**DIRECT LINK BETWEEN ****NOAA THORPEX SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN *****(NTSIP-2002)***** AND****THORPEX INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE PLAN & THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN *****(TIP)***

**SYSTEM**

***GLOBAL INTERACTIVE***
***FORECAST***
***SYSTEM (GIFS)***

## STATUS - NOAA

**Grant program**
- 12 studies funded at slightly reduced level
- 2 on Observing System
- 5 on Data Assimilation
- 3 on Predictability/Forecasting
- 1 on Socio-Economic Applications
- 1 on Cross-Cutting
**IPY Planning**
- Pre-Proposal (Short-Term Arctic Predictability, STAP) submitted, Jan. 2005
- Predictability of weather, sea ice, ocean wave, and land surface in the Arctic on 3-90 days
- One of 10 NOAA submissions
- Coordinated with a group of 10 PIs (JCSDA, SIMMS, OAR, OGP, NIC, NWS, SIP)
- Full plan due June 2005
- Need to coordinate with US/NA/International THORPEX plans/efforts
**North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)**

## NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM

- Joint research/development with Met. Services of Canada & Mexico
- Combine Canadian / US ensemble systems
- Seamless forecasts over borders and lead times
- Share development and computer resources
- Better represent forecast system related uncertainty
- Timeline
- May 2003		Kick-off Workshop
- Nov 2003		Research, Development & Implementation Plan complete
- Sept 2004		Initial Operational Capability
- Nov 2004		Inauguration Ceremony & 2nd Workshop
- High level management, press coverage
- Link with **GEOSS**
- Example for GEOSS empowered applications
- Phased operational implementation
- March 2006, 2007, 2008
- Prototype for THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (**TIGGE**)

## ISSUES

- Long term budget planning
- Need to bring budget and RDI (research, development & implementation) planning in sync
- Mismatch between science plan/high level promises and available resources
- Current 1.3M (2.3M for 06?) budget does not allow full NOAA participation
- Cannot take advantage of IPY-related opportunities
- Cannot fulfill GEOSS expectations (THORPEX IS GEOSS for global weather forecasting)
- Cannot take full advantage of other international collaborative efforts
- Cannot achieve NOAA’s goal of promoting global environmental safety
- Immediate concerns
- Need funding for transition of grant-based research into operations
- Entering 2nd year of grant research
- Must find a solution, otherwise good efforts may be wasted
- Operational Test Center must be established (jointly with JCSDA)
- Need funding for directed research/development (by NOAA Labs & others)
- To fill gaps in program (new fcst system will be as good as its weakest point allows)
- Foster interagency collaboration
- IPY offers good opportunity (and challenge)

## BACKGROUND

## NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART

**NOAA THORPEX USWRP Sub-Committee**
- Louis Uccellini	(Chair)	NWS		Michael Uhart		OWAQ
- Marie Colton		ORA/NESDIS	Gregg Mandt		NWS
- Jim Kimpel (OAR)
**NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee**
*Zoltan Toth**	**Chair, Program Manager NOAA/NWS*
***Observations:******	****	**	**	****Data Assimilation***
- Jaime Daniels		NOAA/NESDIS Craig Bishop		NRL
- David Emmitt		SWA		 L.-P. Riishojgaard	JCSDA
- Chris Velden		CIMSS		Dezso Devenyi 		NOAA/FSL
***Forecasting/Predictability****:**	**	****Socioeconomic Applications:***
- Jim Hansen 		MIT 		Rebecca Morss		NCAR
- Jeff Whitaker/T. Hamill 	NOAA/CDC 	James Wilczak		NOAA/ERL
- George Kiladis		NOAA/AL

## THORPEX:

**A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM**
*NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN*

***Based largely on work of NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting (October 21-22 2002):***

- NOAA NWS
- Zoltan Toth
- Naomi Surgi
- NOAA OAR
- Melvyn Shapiro
- Jeff Whitaker

- Outside NOAA
- Craig Bishop 		NRL
- David Carlson		NCAR
- Ron Gelaro		NASA
- Rebecca Morss		NCAR
- John Murray		NASA
- Chris Snyder		NCAR

- Acknowledgements:
- D. Rogers, L. Uccellini, S. Lord, J. Gaynor, W. Seguin

***With further input from NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Team***

## THORPEX:

**A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM**
*NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN*

**INTRODUCTION**		New forecast paradigm
**SCIENCE PLAN**		Major Themes
- 					Open Science Questions
- 					Research and Development Tasks
**IMPLEMENTATION PLAN**	Work Plan
- 					Deliverables
- 					Performance measures
- 					Education/Outreach
- 					Path to Operations
**APPENDIX****	**		Link with 	NOAA Strategic Goals
- 							NWS STIP Process

## NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM OVERVIEW

**ANSWER SCIENCE QUESTIONS**
- Advance basic knowledge,
- 			directed explicitly toward NWP applications
- Each task must be conceived as part of overall program
**DEVELOP NEW METHODS**
- Sub-system development
- Academic research
- Cross-cutting activities
- Academic + operational centers
- Infrastructure / Core tasks
- Facilitate other activities - Strong agency involvement
- 	Operational Test Facility
- 	Real time test and demonstration
**RECOMMEND/PREPARE OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION**
- Integral part of program
- Strong participation by operational centers

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES

- Observing system (OBS)
- Data assimilation (DA)
- Forecast procedures (FCST)
- Socio-economic Applications (SA)
- Cross-cutting activities
- Core tasks

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 1

**OBSERVING SYSTEM**
- New in-situ and remote instruments/platforms to complement existing network
- Adaptive observing instruments/platforms
- For large data sets
- Super-obing etc prior to OR within data assimil.
- 			*(Joint work with data assimilation)*
- Obs. error estimation (correlated/uncorrelated)

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 2

- Observing system
**DATA ASSIMILATION**
- Improve techniques
- Forward models, transfer codes
- Thinning of data
- Treatment of data with correlated errors
- Advanced methods to use case dependent covariance
- 4DVAR research, e.g., continual update of error covariance
- Ensemble based techniques
- Treatment of model errors
- Adaptive observing techniques
- Quick use of targeted data (“pre-emptive” forecasting)
- Methods in the presence of
- Strong non-linearities
- Model error
- Effectiveness of targeted data in analyses/forecasts
- Effect on climatological applications of data

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 3

- Observing system
- Data assimilation
**FORECAST PROCEDURES**
- Initial ensemble perturbations *(Joint with data assimilation)*
- Role of non-modal behavior
- Separate model related error from initial value errors
- Systematic vs. random errors
- Atmospheric features most affected
- Critical model features responsible for different errors
- Improve model formulation to reduce errors (Coupling techniques)
- Techniques to account for remaining uncertainty in ensembles
- Adaptive modeling and ensemble techniques

## SCIENCE QUESTIONS – ACTIVITIES - 4

- Observing system
- Data assimilation
- Forecast procedures
**SOCIO-ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS**
- Probabilistic forecasting
- Statistical post-processing
- New procedures for intermediate and end users
- Add-on costs of new THORPEX NWP process
- Cost of data from multi-use satellite platforms *(Joint with Observtns.)*
- Incremental societal/economic benefits of new NWP process
- New NWP verification measure
- Societal aspects of new adaptive NWP procedures
- Equitable use of NWP resources

## CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES

*Integrating NWP procedures from four sub-systems *
*Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)*
- Data needs of NWP
- What variables/resolution/accuracy required
- Instrument/platform neutral assessment
- What instruments/platforms can provide data needs
- Existing and new in-situ & remote platforms
- Adaptive component to complement fixed network
- Most cost effective solution
- Relative value of improvements in four sub-systems
- Improvements in which sub-system offer best return?
- Reallocation of resources
- Test of proposed operational configurations
- Major field program if needed
- Cost/benefit analysis - **Select most cost effective version**

## CORE TASKS

*Needed for efficient research & planned operations*
*Strong agency involvement*
- THORPEX data base (observations, forecasts)
- Information Technology challenge
- High data volume
- Transmission
- Storage of data
- Foster collaboration in critical areas
- Workshops (Societal and economic impacts)
- Joint proposals – Interdisciplinary collaboration
- Critical in past programs like FASTEX
- Test-bed – Pathway from research to operations
- Formal procedure for researchers to follow
- Melting pot for new ideas
- Venue for cross-cutting activities

## NOAA THORPEX OBJECTIVES

**1)****	****Develop new forecast procedures leading to **
**Improved operational NWP forecasts; and**
**Develop/adapt cost/benefit tools to measure resulting societal impact**
**ULTIMATE MEASURE OF SUCCESS**
**	****The overall success of the NOAA THORPEX program will be measured in a unique and comprehensive way. The program will be considered successful if the newly developed cost/benefit analysis tools ****(point 3 above)**** indicate that the forecast improvements ****(point 2)**** due to the new THORPEX procedures ****(point 1)**** can be achieved operationally in a cost-effective manner. That is, the incremental economic and societal benefits associated with the use of the new THORPEX forecast procedures outweigh their implementation and maintenance costs.**
**	**** **

## LINK WITH NOAA MISSION GOAL

**NOAA’S 3****rd**** MISSION GOAL **– sounds like excerpt from** ****THORPEX doc****.: **
- 	**NOAA will “provide integrated observations, predictions, and advice for decision makers to manage... environmental resources”.**
**Mission strategies and measures of success**
- 					directly correspond with
- 						**THORPEX Sub-program areas**:
***NOAA MISSION STRATEGY******	******          ******THORPEX FORECAST COMPONENTS***
- Monitor and Observe			Observations
- Understand and Describe		Data Assimilation
- Assess and Predict			Forecasting
- Engage, Advise, and Inform		Socio-economic Applications
- Different Line Offices responsible for various forecast components –
***NEED FOR NEW MATRIX MANAGEMENT CONCEPT FOR INTEGRATION***

## LINK WITH NWS STIP PROCESS

**National Weather Service (NWS) –**
**	****	****	****	****         ****NOAA’s operational weather forecast provider**
**NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP) –**
- 	Operational requirements should motivate all service oriented research
- 					Research must have thread to operations &
- 					Credible path to operational implementation
***SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH MUST ENABLE SERVICE GOALS***
*THORPEX seeks advanced knowledge on two fronts:*
*	**Nature **	**	**	**(atmospheric and related processes)*
*	**Forecast procedures **	**	**(OBS, DA, FCST & SA techniques)*
*Integrating knowledge from two areas leads to new forecast paradigm of*
***INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, AND USER CONTROLLABLE FCST PROCESS***

## NOAA’S INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX

- 1998-99	Discussions started with involvement of NOAA scientists
- Apr 2000	First International Meeting
- Mar 2002	First Workshop, International Science Steering Committee formed
- Aug 2002	NOAA Tiger Team Meeting
**Oct 2002****	****NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting**
**Nov 2002****	****1****st**** Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan**
- Jan 2003	NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Committee formed
- Feb 2003	Pacific TOST Experiment (PTOST)
**Jun 2003****	****First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of Opportunity**
- Sep 2003	25 Full Proposals received
- Oct-Dec 03	Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (ATREC)
- Feb 04	Scientific review and evaluation of AO proposals completed
**Apr-Jun 04****	****Grants for 12 out of 25 proposals distributed**
- Sept 2004	Initial Operating Capability for NAEFS
- Jan 2005	NOAA IPY Pre-proposal (Short-Term Arctic Predictability - STAP)

## 4.2  THORPEX ORGANIZATION

**4.2  THORPEX ORGANIZATION**
**PROPOSED INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE**

- Solid plan
- Reflects expected organization of work

- ICSC
- In charge

- Advisory bodies:
- Science, Operations, Users

- Executive Board
- (Headed by IPO Director)

- Working Groups:
- Science, Demos, GIFS

- Regions:
- Asia, Europe, NA, etc

## THORPEX INTL ORGANIZATIONAL FLOWCHART

- System

- Data Assim. &
- Obs. Strateg.

- Predict-
- ability

- Socio-Econ.
- Applications

- Global Interactive
- Forecast System

*Core Research*

*Deliverable*

*Support*

- Data Management and Policy

- TIGGE
- Data Base

*Facilitates*
*Res. & Demo*

**THORPEX INTL ORGANIZATIONAL FLOWCHART**

## THORPEX ORGANIZATION

**NATIONAL – INTERNATIONAL LINKS**

- International Core
- Steering Committee
- ICSC, Chair: M. Beland

- US Interagency Coordination
- US Rep.: R. Rosen
- Alt.:  L. Uccellini

*INTERNATIONAL LEVEL*

*US NATIONAL LEVEL*

- International
- Leadership

- National
- Leadership

- NOAA
- NTEC
- L. Uccellini

- NSF
- J. Moyers

- NASA
- R. Birk
- J. Kay

- ONR
- S. Cheng

- THORPEX Executive
- Board (TEB) / IPO
**?**

- International
- Exec. Leaders

- Agency
- Execs

- Science, Demo, GIFS
- Working Groups
**????**

- Regional Committees
- Europe, Asia, etc

- NA Committee
- US Rep: D. Parsons

- Intl. Science &
- Implementation

- Agency
- Sci/Imp

*REGIONAL LEVEL*

- NOAA
- Sci/Impl
- Z. Toth

- NSF
- Program Man.
- L. Gates

- NASA
- Sci/Impl
- T. Miller

- ONR
- Sci/Impl.
- C. Reynolds

## NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART

- <footer>

- <date/time>

- NTEC MEMBERS
- J. Hayes, D-OST/NWS
- J. Kimpel, OAR
- M. Colton, D-ORA/NESDIS

**NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART**

- CHAIR
- L. Uccellini, D-NCEP/NWS

- CHAIR
- Z. Toth, EMC/NCEP

- NOAA Senior
- Management

- NOAA Line
- Offices

- NOAA Res. Labs:
- AL, CDC, ETL, FSL, ORA

- NOAA Joint Inst.:
- JCSDA, CIMMS, SIP

- NTSIC MEMBERS
**Obs. Systems**: J. Daniels (ORA), D. Emmitt (SWA), C. Velden (U. Wisc/SIMMS)
**Data Assim**: C. Bishop (NRL), L.-P. Riishojgaard (NASA/JCSDA)
**Forecasting**: J. Hansen (MIT), G. Kiladis (AL), D. Devenyi (FSL), J. Whitaker/T. Hamill (CDC)
**SA Applications**: R. Morss (NCAR), J. Wilczak (ETL)

- NWS-NCEP Operational Implementations
- F. Toepfer

- International Forecasting Activities
- NOAA THORPEX Administrative Assistant

- STAFF: Z. Toth, NTSIC Chair
- M. Ralph & F. Toepfer, PPBES

*Consistent with D. Rogers Memo of 7/9/2003, establishing NTEC & NTSIC*

- Interagency
- Coordination

- Regional Sci. Com.
- Science/Demo
- Working Groups

## NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART – 

- EXECUTIVE
- COMMITTEE
- (NTEC)

**NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART – **
**ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES**

- NOAA THORPEX
- SCIENCE AND
- IMPLEMENTATION
- COMMITTEE
- (NTSIC)

- 1)	Provide overall guidance
- 2)	Secure necessary funding
- 3)	Make all funding decisions
- 1)	Develop and update NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Plan
- 2)	Evaluate proposals submitted to NOAA THORPEX Research Grant Program (AO)

- CHAIR

- CHAIR

- Leads committee, makes final decisions if it lacks consensus
- Interfaces with USWRP/ International Executive Commit.
- Interfaces with Chair of NTSIC
- 1)	Leads and coordinates NOAA THORPEX Program as directed by NTEC
- 2)	Prepares draft budget
- Recommends funding for:
*Research grants*
*Operational implementation*
*Infrastructure*
*International commitments, etc*