# Presentation: 735845

## WDTB Winter Wx WorkshopSummary

## Why Train on Winter Wx?

- Significant hazard to life and property
- Avg. of 70-80 deaths / year (excluding traffic-related incidents)
- $ 1 to 2 Billion / year
- Very difficult to forecast mesoscale events, pinpoint locations/timing/precip type  of many large scale events due to complex nature of phenomena

## Performance Measures

- 15 hr Lead Time on Warnings
- 90% POD
- 27% FAR
- Focus on science and societal impacts to improve services

## New Policy DirectivesNWSI 10-513

- Outlooks
- >30 % chance of event in next 3-5 days
- Watches
- >50 % chance of event in next 12-48 hrs
- Warnings
- 80% chance of event exceeding local criteria in next 36 hrs
- Mention specific amounts

## New Directives

- Get out of comfort zone
- Learn from failure
- Develop local criteria that meets user needs
- Determine optimal lead times for decision makers

## Winter Weather Training 

- The PDS web page (http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWx/indexpds.html)
- has training on all workshop topics plus more

## User Needs(PCU1)

- Assess customer requirements and societal impacts related to our winter weather products and services
- Optimize lead times to help decision makers
- Eastern Region Best Practices Report
- See handout and user needs presentation

## Climatology(PCU 2)

- Rarity of storms (use Grumm’s web site)
- http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/sigwxau02-new.ppt
- Recognize Arctic Outbreak Patterns
- See Brad Bramer’s presentation

## Conceptual Models (PCU 3 – 4)

- Important to give physical basis for forecast adjustments
- Subjective and Objective forecaster techniques

**Synoptic NWP **

- Mesoscale
- Adjustments

- IFPS grids

## NWP (PCU 2-4)

- Continues to improve with better resolution pcpn schemes
- Know changes to GFS, Eta, RUC-20, LAPS, SREF output
- METED web site http://meted.ucar.edu/topics_nwp.php

## HPC Guidance  (PCU 2 to 4 )

- Use it!
- Know terms
- Coordinate with HPC
- _[http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/winterwx2.](http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/winterwx2.shw)__[shw](http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/winterwx2.shw)_
- National Experiment continues this season

## Ensembles (PCU 2-3)

- Use them in objective forecast process to recognize consistencies or uncertainties in model output
- Not always right!
- http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF/SREF.html

## Synoptic Assessment(PCU 3)

- QG forcing and Fn
- _[http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/](http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/SCHULTZ_.PPT)__[WinterWxII](http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/SCHULTZ_.PPT)__[/Presentations/SCHULTZ_.PPT](http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/SCHULTZ_.PPT)_
- Ingredients method (4-panel method of diagnosis)
- _[http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/visit/ingredients.html](http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/visit/ingredients.html)_

## Precipitation Type Forecasting(PCU 3-4)

- Microphysics (top down approach)
- Know strengths and limitations of various precipitation type techniques / algorithms (eg,  Ramer, Bourgouin, Baldwin, etc)
- Use BUFKIT (dendritic growth zone, pcpn type)
- http://wdtb.noaa.gov/resources/projects/BUFKIT/index.html
- http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/ptype_wdtb_day3_aug2002.shw
- Complete exercise form using BUFKIT

## Precip Type Fcstg Methodologybeyond 72 hours (PCU 3)

- Use pattern recognition and assess thickness values

## Use most consistent model to target potential 
Top down approach 
Ice...  –12C 

Identify range of possibilities

- Top down approach
- Ice...  –12C
- Identify range of possibilities

- Precip Type Fcstg Methodology24 to 72 hours (PCU 3)

## Still use top down approach with higher resolution models but begin to incorporate more remotely sensed data to modify model output 

- Precip Type Fcstg Methodologywithin 24 hours of expected event(PCU 4)

## Mesoscale Analysis /Real-time(PCU 4 – 5)

- Banding potential (location of Fn)
- SPC meso guidance
- Use satellite trends for timing of features, forcing mechanisms, tstms can warm sfc T
- Radar orientations/ echo circles/bright band
- Use Spotters
- http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/workshop/WinterWxII/Presentations/frontogenesis_talk_020809.ppt

## Topo forcing (PCU 4)

- Know basics of mountain flow
-  COMET web site
- http://meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/flowtopo/index.htm
- Improved grid spacing can help

## Use of Mesoscale Models(PCU 4)

- Goal is to improve knowledge of the forecast process and use of mesoscale models
- Big Bang for Buck
- Can help forecasters determine local responses to various weather regimes
- If you capture the forcing, you can capture the response
- See Bob Roz.’s LAM considerations (domain size, time, resolution, phenom of interest)

## Effective Communication(PCU 6)

- Timing is everything
- Make sure our products tell the whole story
- Snow accum not enough
- Societal impacts should be coordinated prior to the season

## IFPS Applications

- Precipitation type algorithm

## ScenarioLessons Learned

-  Coordination with HPC and adjacent WFOs helped in the decision-making process
-  SREF ensembles helped in the forecast process
-  4-panels of “ingredients”,  2-D Fn helpful, model soundings (using BUFKIT)  great for p-type forecasting (WS Eta)
-  satellite trends helpful in snowfall rates and  amounts

## Making Training Stick Like Glue

- Plan
- Research
- Inform and communicate expectations
- Objectively Observe
- Role Model
- Inspire,  instill,  internalize
- Test techniques
- Yes attitude

## Where do you go from here?

- All presentations will be on WDTB web site (wdtb.noaa.gov)
- Make training stick by being an example
- Use the PDS on winter weather
- You’ll be hearing from us after this winter to see how techniques &  training were applied

## Summary