# Presentation: 924394

## Making CCS Work: 

**The CSIS Energy and National Security program, together with**
**The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee**
**Monday, March 31, 2008, Washington DC**
**Making CCS Work: **
**Economics and Critical Issues:**
**Sequencing the Deployment**
**Two Things About Various Aspects**
**Jon Gibbins**
**Energy Technology for Sustainable Development Group**
**Mechanical Engineering Department**
**Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, UK**
**j.gibbins@imperial.ac.uk**
**Principal Investigator: UK Carbon Capture and Storage Consortium, www.ukccsc.co.uk**
**OSI UK/China Focal Point Scheme contact for Climate Change & Environment**

## CCS is the only way that fossil fuels can be used safely

**CCS is the only way that fossil fuels can be used safely**

*Source: **http://www.ipcc.ch/*

**CARBON IN**
**FOSSIL FUELS**

**‘****Unconventional oil’ includes oil sands and oil shales.  Unconventional gas’ includes coal bed methane, deep geopressured gas etc. but not a possible 12,000 GtC from gas hydrates.**

**1000**
** ****ppm**

**750**
** ****ppm**

**650**
** ****ppm**

**CARBON THAT CAN BE **
**EMITTED  TO ATMOSPHERE**
**IN THIS CENTURY**

**450**
** ****ppm**

**350**
** ****ppm**

**550**
** ****ppm**

## Two things matter about CO2 emissions

**Short-term emission rates**
**- policy targets, caps for trading**** **
**Cumulative emissions over centuries**
**	****- what determines climate change**
**	****- far more fossil fuel available than the atmosphere can take**

## Gigatonnes of carbon from fossil fuels

**Gigatonnes of carbon from fossil fuels**

**Fuel production costs **
**$/barrel oil equivalent**

**(Data from: ****H-H. Rogner, *****An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources*****, Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 1997. 22:217–62, adjusted from 1990 to 2006 dollars**
**Discussed in: Gibbins & Barnett, *****Will renewables be cheap enough to fix climate change*****?, Public Service Review, 2008.)**
** **

## Two things about 

**	****renewable vs fossil economics**
** ****Fossil fuel prices**
**- the highest that suppliers can get**
**- competition forces prices down to maintain sales **
** ****2. Fossil fuel costs of production**
**	****- the lowest that suppliers will sell for**
**	****- the number that renewables must beat to keep fossil fuels in the ground**

## Types of Carbon Capture Technology 

**IPCC Special Report on CCS**

**Hydrocarbon fuels**

## Two costs can be quoted for the different 

**CO****2**** capture technologies:**
**The jump in the cost of electricity when you assume capture is added to the same technology**
**	****- often cited as ‘cost of abatement’**
**	****- lowest for coal using IGCC, but IGCC initial cost higher (and harder to retrofit sensibly)**
** ****2. The cost of electricity with capture**
**	****- very similar for all coal technologies (as far as can tell)**
**	****- determines the real cost of capture, when compared to a standard baseline**

## 2004

**Fraction of **
**world total**

**Cumulative **
**total**

**Lots of **
**CO****2**

**Lots of **
**countries**

**Emissions data from IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 BAU Reference Scenario**

**2004**

**2030**

**2004**

**2030**

**USA**

**22.1%**

**17.7%**

**22.1%**

**17.7%**

**EU**

**14.8%**

**10.4%**

**38.4%**

**43.5%**

**China**

**18.3%**

**25.8%**

**55.2%**

**53.9%**

**Russia**

**5.8%**

**4.7%**

**61.0%**

**58.5%**

**Japan**

**4.6%**

**2.9%**

**65.6%**

**61.4%**

**Rest of OECD N. America**

**3.5%**

**3.4%**

**69.1%**

**64.8%**

**India**

**4.2%**

**6.3%**

**73.4%**

**71.1%**

**Africa**

**3.1%**

**3.6%**

**Middle East**

**4.5%**

**6.1%**

**Latin America**

**3.5%**

**3.8%**

**Brazil**

**1.2%**

**1.4%**

## Two countries need to agree to tackle climate change seriously before CCS is likely to happen in a big way.

** ****But they are both so dependent on coal that they probably cannot sign up to big emission cuts without CCS**

**Catch 22 situation?**
**Unfortunately this isn’t a story!**

## Type 1 – Type 2 – Type 3 CCS projects

**A useful concept to allow differentiation **
**between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ CCS**

**Type 1 CCS projects just stop things getting worse **
**Type 2 CCS projects make things get better            **
**Type 3 CCS projects remove CO****2**** from the air        **
**Type 1:  Usually producing hydrocarbons, get carbon footprint down to conventional hydrocarbon levels e.g. coal to liquids, oil sands – but probably make more fossil carbon available in total**
**Type 2:  Carbon free energy vectors - electricity or H****2**
**Type 3B:  Biomass plus CCS (takes CO****2**** from the air)**
**Type 3A:  Technology to process air directly to capture CO****2**
**EOR a grey area****	**

**1**

**2**

## CCS - Sequencing the Deployment – the Big Picture

**FIRST **
**TRANCHE**
**Demonstration**

**SECOND **
**TRANCHE**
**Commercial &**
**Regulatory Drivers**

**Overall effort also important to maintain continuity**

**GLOBAL**
**CCS **
**ROLLOUT**

**Big prize is getting two learning cycles**
**from two tranches of CCS projects before global rollout**

**EU**
**CCS **
**ROLLOUT**

**IGCC/OXYFUEL**
**NEW BUILD/**
**REBUILD**
**PLANTS PATH**
**TO ROLLOUT**

**2015**

**2020**

**2025**

**12 plants by 2015 in EU**

**Earliest demo plants?**

**Last plants in first **

**tranche**

**First plants in second **

**tranche**

**Later plant in second **

**tranche**

**First lead country rollout plants**

**First global rollout plants**

**Feedback from**

**first **

**tranche**

**into**

**second **

**tranche**

**Feedback from**

**second **

**tranche**

**into**

**EU and global rollout**

**2015**

**2020**

**2025**

**BUILD ALL PLANTS CAPTURE READY**

**RETROFIT CAPTURE **

**CCS - Sequencing the Deployment – the Big Picture**

- Gibbins, J. and Chalmers, H. Preparing for global rollout: A ‘developed country first’ demonstration programme for rapid CCS deployment. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(2), 501-507.

## New Build vs. Retrofit

**FIRST **
**TRANCHE**
**Demonstration**

**SECOND **
**TRANCHE**
**Commercial &**
**Regulatory Drivers**

**GLOBAL**
**CCS **
**ROLLOUT**

**Big prize is getting two learning cycles**
**from two tranches of CCS projects before global rollout**

**EU**
**CCS **
**ROLLOUT**

**IGCC/OXYFUEL**
**NEW BUILD/**
**REBUILD**
**PLANTS PATH**
**TO ROLLOUT**

**2015**

**2020**

**2025**

**12 plants by 2015 in EU**

**Second tranche plants overlap with first tranche since many lessons can be learned without needing a new plant (e.g. solvent development and some aspects of absorber design, including packing)**

**POST-COM**
**ADD-ON**
**PLANTS PATH**
**TO ROLLOUT**

**2015**

**2020**

**2025**

**First tranche plants earlier (especially if retrofits) **

**Big prize is having technology suitable for global deployment available up to 5 years earlier (and well suited to retrofit too)**

**New Build vs. Retrofit**
**Learning Cycles**

- Gibbins, J. and Chalmers, H. Preparing for global rollout: A ‘developed country first’ demonstration programme for rapid CCS deployment. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(2), 501-507.

## Two actions to get ready for CCS rollout

** ****Get through two learning cycles of CCS as quickly as possible – plus all the other support activities**
**Make all new fossil fuel plants capture ready – and move towards replacing fossil fuels in buildings and transport with electricity (or hydrogen)**

## Tilbury - 2x 800MW  Capture ready- photo montage (some details omitted)

- Richard Hotchkiss, RWE npower R&D, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE
- COMBUSTION DIVISION OF THE COAL RESEARCH FORUM .  17 April 2007, http://www.coalresearchforum.org/pastmeetings.html

## Tilbury - 2x 800MW  Capture ready- photo montage (some details omitted)

- Richard Hotchkiss, RWE npower R&D, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE
- COMBUSTION DIVISION OF THE COAL RESEARCH FORUM .  17 April 2007, http://www.coalresearchforum.org/pastmeetings.html

- Tilbury - 2x 800MW  Capture ready- photo montage (some details omitted)

## 				Summary

**Cumulative CO****2**** emissions are what matters**
**Too much fossil fuel for the climate**
**Extraction costs probably too low for renewables to beat fossil any time soon**
**CCS electricity costs similar for pulverised coal and IGCC routes **
**Two biggest emitters, USA and China, rely on CCS to commit to tackling climate change**
**Don’t think Type 1 CCS, for oil and gas production, is really tackling climate change – need Type 2 and Type 3.**
**Two learning cycles before CCS proven – maybe 10 years – must get started as quickly as possible**
**Meanwhile make all new fossil fuel plants capture ready – and move towards replacing fossil fuels in buildings and transport with electricity (or hydrogen)**

## 				Summary

**Cumulative CO****2**** emissions are what matters**
**Too much fossil fuel for the climate**
**Extraction costs probably too low for renewables to beat fossil any time soon**
**CCS electricity costs similar for pulverised coal and IGCC routes **
**Two biggest emitters, USA and China, rely on CCS to commit to tackling climate change**
**Don’t think Type 1 CCS, for oil and gas production, is really tackling climate change – need Type 2 and Type 3.**
**Two learning cycles before CCS proven – maybe10 years – must get started as quickly as possible**
**Meanwhile make all new fossil fuel plants capture ready – and move towards replacing fossil fuels in buildings and transport with electricity (or hydrogen)**