# Presentation: 502367

## Mass Fields:a summary of all seasons and domains

- Ligia Bernardet NOAA FSL
- Louisa Nance NCAR DTC
- Hui-ya Chuang NCEP
- May 13, 2004

##  Temperature Field

-  Temperature Field

- WRF-EM members:
- Smallest overall bias & rmse

- WRF-NMM members:
- Largest overall bias & rmse
- Bred members larger errors

- EM and NMM display differences between baseline and bred members

##  Height Field (uncorrected)

-  Height Field (uncorrected)

- WRF-EM members:
- Smallest overall bias & rmse
- Bred members equal baseline

- WRF-NMM members:
- Largest overall bias & rmse
- Bred members differ from baseline

- Bias:
- Positive for all members
- Group by Initial Condition

- WHY??

## October 02 – Temperature Field - East Domain – All times

- Bias:
- WRF-EM to the left.
- Most models had cold biases at low levels and warm biases aloft, but...
- In winter, NMM is warm at lowest level
- Overall distribution groups by dynamical core
- Physics important on lower trop

- RMSE: Eta & WRF-NMM/NCAR physics lowest overall RMSE - this varies with season/domain

- Breeding has largest errors

## May ’03 – Sea Level Pressure Field - Central Domain – Any surface

- Eta
- lowest overall bias & rmse
- Especially good at night

- Bias & RMSE for WRF members tend to group by dynamic core

- Bias
- Most models underpredicted SLP
- All members exhibit a diurnal oscillation: Too low at Tmax; Too high at Tmin (not all seasons and domains!!)

- day

- night

- day

- night

## May ’03 – Sea Level Pressure Field - East Domain – Any surface

- Eta has one of the lowest overall bias & RMSE, but is joined by WRF-NMM members for this domain

- WRF members tend to group by dynamic core
- NMM members closer together than EM members

- Bias:
- Diurnal oscillation in bias less evident for E domain, all seasons.
- NNM, ETA: OK EM:overpred (initializes low)

- day

- night

- night

## Feb ’03 – Surface Temperature Field - West Domain – Only surface

- ETA has lowest bias, but this
- varies with season/domain

- ETA and WRF-EM/NCAR physics
- have lowest RMSE, but this varies
- with season/domain

- Bias:
- Grouping by dynamic core - especially daytime.
- Physics swaps causes member to differentiate from group
- Diurnal cycle: at TMAX, EM cold, NMM warm.
- RMSE:
-  grouping by dynamic core

- day

- day

- night

## Feb ’03 – Surface Temperature Field - East Domain – Only surface

- EM bred members have
- lowest bias!! (varies)

- ETA has lowest RMSE (varies)
- EM/NCEP is not between EMs and NMMS

- Bias:
- Diurnal oscillation is less evident for E domain
- Grouping by dynamic core
- EM always cold.
- NMM too warm during day.
- RMSE:
-  subtle grouping by dynamic core

- night

- night

- day

## Summary

- Surface:
- Members group by dynamic core
- E domain has little diurnal cycle of errors
- W, C have diurnal cycle of errors
- Member w/ lowest bias and/or RMSE depends on domain and parameter

## Vertical Profiles Initial Time:
EM has lowest errors.
Curious lack of diversity between EM baseline and bred members

Vertical Profiles all Times
Temperature tends to group by dynamic core/IC
Grouping by physics appears in T profile at lower troposphere

General: member w/ lowest overall bias varied by field and domain

- EM has lowest errors.
- Curious lack of diversity between EM baseline and bred members
- Vertical Profiles all Times
- Temperature tends to group by dynamic core/IC
- Grouping by physics appears in T profile at lower troposphere
- General: member w/ lowest overall bias varied by field and domain