# Presentation: 359838

## Ecosystem modeling efforts at the NWFSC

- A quick overview

## Some basics

- Major efforts focused on
- Salmon and their environment
- Mostly Pacific Northwest
- Groundfish and the California Current LME
- In addition to fisheries, a lot of effort has gone into habitat, water quality and quantity, oceans and human health, cumulative impacts

## Some philosophical tenets common among NWFSC modeling groups

- We define models as
- mathematical or conceptual caricatures of reality, and as such are tools that allow us to project the future state of an ecosystem or guide further inquires
- We develop models aimed at specific **outputs** and **outcomes** generated in collaboration with managers and stakeholders.

## General types of models1 employed by the NWFSC 

- Statistical models
- posit relationships between variables
- fit to data, and thus they are specific to the location and the system under investigation
- Theoretical (analytical and simulation) models
- posit mechanisms and thus lead to predictions that can be tested with data
- used to understand systems and predict their properties; therefore, they are intended to be general

- 1as influenced by Mangel et al. 2001 Theoretical and Statistical Models in Natural Resource Management and Research. In: Shenk and Franklin, Island Press

## Issues that we MUST consider (we think these are somewhat different than (some) other regions)

- Upwelling and how its influenced by ENSO, PDO, climate change
- Huge influence of land use, land cover, water quantity (e.g., snow pack)
- Salmon  Salmon  Salmon Salmon Salmon
- ESA is huge. MSA still places a role, but less so than other centers
- Weak stock management
- Salmon

## Generally, We use models to address the following:

- Forecast effects of **climate / oceanographic variability** (and trends) on population dynamics and productivity, habitat, ecological community
**Evaluate management strategies** on target species, ecosystem indicators (and down the road, socioeconomic indicators)
**Examine trade-offs** between different desired ecosystem services
- The potential influence of **habitat restoration** on freshwater and riparian ecosystems
- Examine indirect effects and **cumulative impacts** across multiple human actions

## A few examples

- This is not exhaustive

## Generally, We use models to address the following:

- Forecast effects of **climate / oceanographic variability** (and trends) on population dynamics and productivity, habitat, ecological community
**Evaluate management strategies** on target species, ecosystem indicators (and down the road, socioeconomic indicators)
**Examine trade-offs** between different desired ecosystem services
- The potential influence of **habitat restoration** on freshwater and riparian ecosystems
- Examine indirect effects and **cumulative impacts** across multiple human actions

## California Current Plankton Production

- Desired Outcome
- Prediction of juvenile salmon production from upwelling-driven plankton production.

## California Current Plankton Production

**Pl**

**Z**

**D**

**NH****4**

**Ps**

**upwelling**

**diffusion**

**oxidation**

**sinking**

**sinking**

**sinking**

**mixing loss**

**mixing loss**

**excretion**

**egestion**

**mortality**

**mortality**

_**NNPPZD**_

**Notes:**
Under funding from the NOAA FATE program, Jim Ruzicka, Tom Wainwright, and Bill Peterson have been developing a coupled biophysical model of the northern California Current coastal upwelling zone.  This diagram shows the structure of the “NNPPZD” plankton model, which was chosen as an intermediate-complexity model that represents the essential production processes for shelf waters off Oregon and Washington.  Arrows indicate various flows among the components (blue rectangles).  

## Cal. Current Plankton Production

**Notes:**
This diagram shows the relationship of model predictions (curves) to observations (red dots) for dissolved nutrients (Top), phytoplankton (Middle), and zooplankton (Bottom) at a station 5 miles off Newport, Oregon.  The model does well at reproducing the seasonality and general magnitude of plankton dynamics, but is not great at predicting the response to individual upwelling events.

## Fish bioenergetics

_**Fish bioenergetics**_
** ****How is growth or feeding influenced by environment?**
** ****size- & temperature-dependent energy budget**
** ****potential applications:**
** ****predation impacts**
** ****climate variability**
** ******** ****in size distributions**
** ****link to other models**

**Fecundity  (1000s)**

**Age (yr)**

*******B = CA · W******CB****** · CV******CX****** · e ******(CX · (1 – CV))***** ****· *****ED******diet****** / ED***
***–***** *****RA ******·****** W******RB****** ******·****** RV******RX****** · e ******(RX · (1 – RV))****** ******·****** ACT ******· oxycal · ED ***
***–****** ******(SDA + U) ******· (C – F) ******–****** F ******–****** W · (GSI******max****** – GSI******min******)***

**baseline (no ENSO events)**

**cohort A (4 ENSOs)**

**cohort B (7 ENSOs)**

**delayed maturation,**
**lower lifetime fecundity**

**Example:  rockfish response to repeated ENSO events (Harvey 2005)**

**Notes:**
the delayed maturation response is a direct result of slowed growth due to poor growing conditions in ENSO years; cohort A experienced 1 ENSO before age 6, cohort B experienced 2 ENSOs before age 7.  For mature fish, some energy is diverted to maintaining somatic condition and away from reproduction

BUT ANYWAY...the query you made following the bioenergetics slide:  expected outcomes would be (1) identifying relationships among species groups (e.g., Species A is more sensitive to climate variability than Species B; energy flow through Species C is more drastically affected by fishing than Species C, D and E, as in our Ecol App paper); (2) directly linking the bioenergetics model to other models, e.g., to population matrix models to see how consumption and growth under different conditions affect population size (see recent example by NOAA scientists working on cownose rays:  Neer et al., 2007, MEPS 329:211-223); and (3) indirectly linking them to other models, e.g., using consumption rates from energetics model in Ecopath or Atlantis. 

## Output and Outcomes of Bioenergetic work

- Output – changes in growth, size structure and reproductive output as a function of a variety of environmental parameters
- Outcome – increased precision of stock and ecosystem assessment models

## Generally, We use models to address the following:

- Forecast effects of climate / oceanographic variability (and trends) on population dynamics and productivity, habitat, ecological community
**Evaluate management strategies** on target species, ecosystem indicators (and down the road, socioeconomic indicators)
**Examine trade-offs** between different desired ecosystem services
- The potential influence of **habitat restoration** on freshwater and riparian ecosystems
- Examine indirect effects and **cumulative impacts** across multiple human actions

## 3-dimensional structure of model

**3-dimensional structure of model**

**Daily oceanographic fluxes**
**(water, heat, salt)**
**into and out of each box are**
**controlled by a 10 km x 10 km**
**oceanographic model**

**Biogeochemistry**

**Hydrographic**
**submodel**

**Climate and oceanography**

**Notes:**
Maps: Atlantis is an ecosystm simulatin model, which is spatially explicity in 3 dimensions. We force Atlantis with output from a ROMS oceanographic model. Schematic: Atlantis is forced by oceanographic flux of water, salinity, and heat; it also contains a community or food web submodel, a fisheries submodel including fleet dynamcis, and simulated management and decision making. 

## Outputs and Outcomes

- Output – dynamics of ecosystem indicators under a variety of scenarios
- Outcome – ability to evaluate a variety of monitoring programs, ecosystem indicators and management strategies in the face of environmental variability/uncertainty/change

## We use models to address the following:

- Forecast effects of climate / oceanographic variability (and trends) on population dynamics and productivity, habitat, ecological community
**Evaluate management strategies** on target species, ecosystem indicators (and down the road, socioeconomic indicators)
**Examine trade-offs** between different desired ecosystem services
- The potential influence of **habitat restoration** on freshwater and riparian ecosystems
- Examine indirect effects and **cumulative impacts** across multiple human actions

## Ecospace model of N. California Current

_**Ecospace model of N. California Current**_

**Blanco**

**Mendocino**

**Juan de Fuca**

** ****How does MPA size affect  the trade-offs between fishery yield and ecosystem well-being?**
** ****Based on John Field’s NCC Ecopath/Ecosim model**
** ****Each grid square (75 km****2****) has a “leaky” Ecosim model and a habitat type**
** ****Other spatial components: primary**** production, dispersal, migrations, fishing fleets, hypothetical MPAs**
** ****64 food web groups, 7 fleets**

**Colu**

**mbia River**

**Habitats, based on depth and substrate**

## We use models to address the following:

- Forecast effects of climate / oceanographic variability (and trends) on population dynamics and productivity, habitat, ecological community
**Evaluate management strategies** on target species, ecosystem indicators (and down the road, socioeconomic indicators)
**Examine trade-offs** between different desired ecosystem services
- The potential influence of **habitat restoration** on freshwater and riparian ecosystems
- Examine indirect effects and **cumulative impacts** across multiple human actions

## Designing and evaluating recovery strategies with uncertain futures 

**Notes:**
Example for question #5 (and #1, 3, 4): Linked model structure for asking how landscape restoration and protection strategies (and harvest and hatchery management) affect the likelihood that salmon populations will reach their recovery targets (Battin et al. 2007)
Outputs: (1) local (downscaled) climate conditions (air temperature and precipitation) under alternative future scenarios of climate and social conditions from IPCC global climate models (2) upland, freshwater and estuarine habitat conditions from hydrology and land use models, and (3) salmon population status and dynamics from salmon life cycle model.

Outcomes: projected changes in salmon population status and dynamics under alternative futures of habitat, hatchery and harvest management and climate

## Global climate impacts on stream flows in the Snohomish watershed

**Peak flows**

**Low flows**

**Pre-spawning **
**temperature**

**GFDL model**

**Hadley model**

**Battin et al. 2007**

**Global climate impacts on stream flows in the Snohomish watershed**

**Notes:**
Example for question #1 (and #3 &4): Results from climate-->habitat restoration-->habitat modeling--3 major stream habitat attributes (freshwater peak and low flows and stream temperature) that affect salmon, human uses and other aquatic species are projected to change dramatically under future climate scenarios.

## Modeling cumulative effects

***Egg-to-juv Survival***
***peak flows***
***temperature***

***Juv. Rearing Capacity***
***stream gradient***
***stream width***
***riparian condition***
***estuarine channel form***
***connectivity of nearshore patches***

***Spawning Capacity***
***stream gradient***
***stream width***
***riparian condition ***

- Egg

- Juvenile

- Adult

***Pre-spawning Survival***
***temperature***
***low flows***

***Stochastic Variation in Ocean Survival***

- Bartz et al. 2006
- Scheuerell et al. 2006

**Notes:**
More detail on cumulative effects model in example for #5

## Chinook Population Impacts

**GFDL**

**Hadley**

- Battin et al. 2007

**Notes:**
Example for question #5 (and #1): results from linked climate, hydrology and salmon population models--salmon populations are likely to decline under future climate conditions; populations may be able to increase in the face of future climate if aggressive restoration and protection strategies are implemented (in green).

Outputs: salmon population abundance, trend and spatial structure under different habitat restoration alternatives and climate conditions from salmon population dynamic model

Outcomes: watershed councils and regional salmon recovery groups can use this information to choose among alternative restoration strategies and use salmon population projections as hypothesized outcomes of their ecosystem restoration.  Monitoring over time will allow them to test model results and adjust strategies as needed.

## Slide 24

## Summary

- Diversity of NWFSC modeling efforts reflects diversity of ecosystems we must consider – seas to summits
- Models address response variables ranging from habitat (e.g. water flow) through single species (salmon, groundfish) to ecosystem indicators.
- Objectives also vary, but typically are management driven
- Data availability / quality ranges from incredible to horrible

## The work has just begun

## Key contacts

- Ecosystem simulations and bioenergetic models
- Chris Harvey, Isaac Kaplan, Tom Wainwright
- Multi-species models
- Mark Scheuerell, Chris Harvey
- Climate-related models
- Mary Ruckelshaus, Mark Scheuerell, Chris Harvey, Tom Wainwright
- Habitat and water quality related models
- Tim Beechie, Mary Ruckelshaus, Mark Scheuerell

## Slides not used

## Identifying peak-flow impaired sub-basins

- 100

- Impaired: >10% impervious area

- Functioning: <3% impervious area

**Notes:**
Example for question #4: the types of GIS-based spatial models used to estimate changes in landscape conditions and function

Outputs: spatial maps of change in landscape condition (e.g., from historical to current or future) in upland, freshwater and estuarine systems.  Changes in landscape condition result from human activity and natural processes

Outcomes: watershed restoration strategies can take into account physical processes that operate at the scale of an entire basin.  For example, the likelihood of successful restoration projects in lower rivers are dependent on how well the upper watershed processes are functioning and can support lower river dynamics.

## +

**Pacific**
**hake**

**Adult**
**rockfish**

**Juvenile**
**rockfish**

- =

- −

- −

- bycatch in hake fishery

- predation

** ****What is the relative importance of juvenile predation vs. adult bycatch?**
** ****Adaptation of Lotka-Volterra models**
** ****Predation and bycatch connect populations**
** ****Rockfish species is overfished**
** ****Predation slows rockfish rebuilding modestly**
** ****BUT, bycatch is major mortality source**
** ****Effective bycatch control offsets predation**

**(Harvey et al., accepted)**

## Nutrient mass-balance models

- Scheuerell et al. (2005) *CJFAS*

- Historical: P ≈ 80 000 kg

**Notes:**
Marine-derived subsidies transported upstream by spawning salmon are important to freshwater ecosystems. Using data from the Snake River basin, we have modeled the relationship between nutrients imported to freshwater ecosystems by adult salmon and those exported by their offspring smolts (left panel). Because of density-dependence, the percentage of total nutrients exported increased with decreasing spawner abundance. When viewed on a calendar-year basis (right panel), which makes more sense from an ecosystem perspective (e.g. seasonal primary-productivity & food web dynamics), we see 2 things:
contemporary nutrient transport is about two orders of magnitude than that estimated historically, and
smolts actually exported more nutrients than adults imported (i.e. negative net transport) in several years during the past few decades.

## Forecasting climate impacts on salmon

- Atmosphere

- Smolts

- Adults

- Smolts

- Adults

- Eggs

- Parr

- Ocean

- Freshwater

**Notes:**
In order to generate better predictions about the potential impacts of climate change on Pacific salmon, we are collaborating with the UW Climate Impacts Group to develop a model framework whereby we use future greenhouse gas scenarios and global circulation models to drive changes in atmospheric processes and alter both the marine and freshwater environments (e.g., SST, upwelling, streamflows), with subsequent effects on various stages of the salmon life cycle. 

## We don’t know

- At what level of complexity do we get the answer we need?
- No single answer