# Presentation: 877639

## Some ESRL Work on Tropical Storm Obs and Atmospheric Models

- NCEP
- July 21, 2008
- Alexander E.
- MacDonald
***OAR DAA***
- Director
-  ***Earth System ***
***Research Laboratory***

## Talk Summary

- Observing systems: UAS
- WISDOM Project
- FIM and NIM Models
- GPU (Cell) Processing

## There are a great variety of UAS.  

**Aerosonde                           Global Observer                              Zephyr**

**Global Hawk**

**AEM in situ**

**Altair Predator B**

## NOAA UAS Program Funded!

- Program will apply to all NOAA missions
- This presentation:  Tropical Storms
- Program Manager:  Marty Ralph, FY 2008
- 	Robbie Hood, FY 2009
- Budget:  $ 3.3 M in 2008, $ 6.3 M in 2009

## Examples of Hurricane Missions for UAS:

- Global Hawk to loiter above the hurricane.
- Aerosonde into the hurricane at low levels.
- Zephyr over hurricanes for days at a time.
- WISDOM (Small super-pressure balloons)

## NOAA is working with NASA with the goal of using the Global Hawk as a platform for hurricane recon.

- Global Hawk could loiter above hurricanes for extended periods, and:
-  Dropsondes
-  Radar sampling
-  Scatterometry
-  Radiometry

## NOAA/NASA Noel Aerosonde UAS mission

**Aerosonde was launched from NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility at **
**14:08 EST on Friday November 2, 2007.**
**Mission endurance was 17 hours 27 minutes and resulted in **
**7.5 hours of data collection in the core of the hurricane at altitudes less ****than**** 100m.**

_**NOAA/NASA Noel Aerosonde UAS mission**_

## Aerosonde

***Aerosonde***

***P-3 (3500 m)***

**Take-off from Wallops Flight Facility (KWAL) 1600 UTC **

**Rendezvous with P-3 at storm center 0525 UTC**

- KMCF

**“****Eye” loitering with vertical soundings (90-1500 m)**

**Nominal altitude for the Aerosonde**
**prior to entering the storm’s core **
**circulation was between 300-600m. **
**Near the center, UAS altitude was ~150m.**

## ZEPHYR -     Long Duration (Many days) UAS

**ZEPHYR -     Long Duration (Many days) UAS**

-  Built by QinetiQ Corporation (UK)
-   **Problem:  Payload only 4 kg !!!!!!!**

## Zephyr HALE UAS

- Long endurance from solar-electric power
- Weeks/months flight endurance
- Operating altitude 50,000 - 65,000ft
- No environmental impact
- Drop micro-sondes into hurricanes or monitor oceanic weather events for long periods
- Satcom capable – commercial Iridium
- Low cost platform for payloads, plus:
- No regular maintenance
- No operating base needed
- Launch and recover from ship’s deck
- Fewer personnel required
- No fuel distribution network needed
- Zephyr flies for longer for less money
- ~$1m production platform cost

## Ultra-light Dropsonde

-   *  ESRL/GSD issued RFP for dropsonde in 2006
- 	*  Spec:  Closest to 20 gram sonde wins
- 	*  Winner:  Applied Research Associates
-    *  Delivery of test system:  October 2008

## Dropsonde Mechanical Design

- Foam housing
- 3.5 inch diameter
- 2.3 grams
- Air pathways for sensors

- Populated housing with attached streamer
- 38.3 grams

## Dropsonde Electronics

- Packaging – Open cell foam w/ streamer
- Microprocessor – NXP LPC2138
- Transmitter – TI CC1100, 300MHz – 1GHz
- Pressure – Intersema MS5534B
- Humidity – Sensiron SHT75
- Temperature –  Platinum RTD
- GPS – Ublox LEA-5S
- Power – ER14250, Li 1/2AA 3.6VDC

## Production System Concepts

- Streamer-based dropsonde dispenser

## Zephyr – in-situ measurement using drop-sondes

**Lightweight drop-sondes dispensed into developing weather event or storm at intervals to measure PTU and wind speed**

## Talk Summary

- Observing systems: UAS
**WISDOM Project**
- FIM and NIM Models
- GPU (Cell) Processing

## Small balloons called “tetroons” can be inexpensive and easy to handle.

## There are commercially available devices that can report GPS based 3 D location to a satellite in real time.

- Some weigh less than an ounce.

## Up to 1000 balloons could be launched to eliminate initial state uncertainty.

**Up to 1000 balloons could be launched to eliminate initial state uncertainty.**

## Flood the data poor region with balloons.

## 2008 Test Plan

- 		  National Weather Service Interactions
- Data made available to NCEP (EMC, NHC) in real time via internet.
- Possible need for access to helium at RAOB sites.

## Goal:  Release balloons between August 17 and August 22 to improve track.

##  Aug 17 model ensemble identifies target zones for Aug 22.

**Aug 22**

- Aug 18

- Aug 19

- Aug 20

- Aug 21

**Aug 17**

-  Aug 17 model ensemble identifies target zones for Aug 22.
-  Balloons are released from Cape Verde, Florida, Cancun.

## 2008 Test Plan

- Test funded at $ 1 M by DHS.
- Test period:  August 15 to October 1.
- Balloons: 100 at 700 mb, 100 at 200 mb.
- Cape Verde and Barbados:  40 balloons each.
- Deployment teams:  6 teams of 2 people.
- Team travel kits:  Duffel bag with 20 balloons, plus valves.
- Team travel:  Commercial air.
- Operations center:  ESRL.
- Nominal target storms:  2

## Talk Summary

- Observing systems: UAS
- WISDOM Project
**FIM and NIM Models**
- GPU (Cell) Processing

## Flow-following- 

**F****low-following- **
**	****f****inite-volume    **
**I****cosahedral **
**M****odel****	****	**** ****FIM**

- X-section location

**Notes:**
Two of the 3 unique aspects of the FIM are ones that you can see, for its vertical and horizontal coordinate systems.
   - the isentropic-sigma hybrid vertical coordinate, which DOES adapt and generally follow air parcels up and down (Rainer in 2 talks), and
   - the use of the intriguing soccer-ball like icosahedral horizontal grid (which Jin Lee will describe next).

## FIM model/ system 

**FIM model/ system **
**Contributors**
**FIM DESIGN**
**Jin Lee**
**Sandy MacDonald**
**Rainer Bleck**
- Jian-Wen Bao
- John M. Brown
- Jacques Middlecoff
- Ning Wang
- Stan Benjamin

- Tom Henderson
- Chris Harrop
- Bill Moninger
- Brian Jamison
- Susan Sahm
- Ed Szoke
- Georg Grell

- FIM display
-    capabilities for
-    Mary Glackin visit
- Bob Lipschutz
- David Himes
- Beth Russell
- Steve Albers
- Tom Kent
- + dozens more...

- ESMF,
- Subversion

- WorkFlow Manager, xml real-time scripts

- Verification,
- Web page,
- Evaluation

- FIM- chemistry, aerosols

## Temperature

-  - ~20m above sfc
- 11 April 2008 – 00z
- - Interpolated from GFS analysis

- FIM icos plotting – Ning Wang – 240km res

**Notes:**
Values of each field represent volume of air over a polygon at a given level,
In this case, for temperature about 20m above the ground, but on the FIM icosahedral grid.

## N=((2**n)**2)*10 + 2 ; 5th level – n=5  N=10242 ~ 240km;  max(d)/min(d)~1.2

- 6th level – n=6 N= N=40962 ~ 120km;  7th level  – n=7N=163842    ~60km
- 8th level – n=8N=655,362   ~30km;     9th level – n=9N=2,621,442  ~15km
- 10th level  ~7.km;    11th level  ~3.5km , 12th level  ~1.7km

## Slide 30

## FIM vs. GFS – N. Hemisphere (20N-80N)5-day forecast(FIM NH ht problem due to Himalayas until 7/7)

- Tues 8 July 2008

- FIM Technical Review

## Arctic, 5 day forecasts; 3 day average, Profile of RMS Vector model-RAOB wind difference

- FIM has about 1 m/s less RMS wind difference with RAOBs at 300 mb than does GFS for this short period

## FIM – GFS – S. Hemis (20S-80S)5-day forecast; 7-day averageLess elevation to 500mb; June- FIM slightly beats GFS

- Tues 8 July 2008

- FIM Technical Review

## Remaining known FIM problems

- Tues 8 July 2008

- FIM Technical Review

**Remaining known FIM problems**
- - drying
- effect?

- 0h

- 168h

## http://fim.noaa.gov

**Notes:**
Unique features of FIM
 Characteristics of twice-daily FIM forecasts out to 7 days
 Global and CONUS graphics from 7-day FIM forecasts
 More documentation
 Real-time graphics
 Roaring 50s, tropical storms, extent of precip into Sahel, movement of ITCZ, polar forecasts

##     High-end Earth System Modeling

_**2008-2013**_**:** **The “Geodesic Grid” Planet Simulator, ****3rd generation** ***non*****-*****hydrostatic*** finite-volume model with ***1-4 km*** or finer resolution.
**Primary model for:**
-  Medium Range Weather Prediction  0 to 2 weeks, including improve hurricane track and intensity.
-  Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction  2 weeks to 2 years
-  Decadal to Centennial projection

***A project between GFDL, ESRL, AOML and NCEP to develop the leading global model in the world.***

##    Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Model (NIM)

- * Finite Volume, vertically lagrangian, gpu amenable.
- * Being designed at ESRL (testing concepts).
- * J. L. Lee:  Shallow water model.
- * A. E. MacDonald:  Computational design.
- * S.J. Lin:  Vertical Lagrangian.
- * Also looking at nonhydrostatic FIM
**Goal:  Operationally viable at 4 km globally in 2012**

## Talk Summary

- Observing systems: UAS
- WISDOM Project
- FIM and NIM Models
**GPU (Cell) Processing**

## Graphic Processing Units: On a Steep Performance Curve

**Graphic Processing Units: On a Steep Performance Curve**

## Slide 40

## Slide 41

## Slide 42

## Alexander.E.MacDonald@noaa.gov   sandymacd@comcast.net

- _[Alexander.E.MacDonald@noaa.gov](mailto:Alexander.E.MacDonald@noaa.gov)_** **  **sandymacd@comcast.net**