# Presentation: 871727

## Alaska Fisheries Science Center  Index Development and Ecosystem Monitoring 

**Jennifer Boldt**
**Patricia Livingston**
**Anne Hollowed**

## Fate Goals

**Deliver, examine, and maintain time series of ecological indicators**
**Facilitate use of indicators in stock assessment**
**Develop indicators**

## To address FATE goals:

- PICES Scientific Report No. 28 2005
- Ecosystem considerations chapter
- Development of index of water column structure on spawning pollock biomass in Shelikof Strait
- Development of indices of water column structure and effects on Bering Sea pollock cannibalism
- Continuing development of index of surface advection across the eastern Bering Sea and effects on winter spawning flatfish

## Ecosystem Considerations Chapter 

- Track ecosystem-based management efforts and their efficacy
- Track ecosystem changes and role of climate and humans in influencing change
- Bring ecosystem research efforts to the attention of stock assessment scientists, public
- Provide link between ecosystem research and fishery management

## Chapter Organization

**I.****	****	****ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT**
**II.****	****ECOSYSTEM STATUS INDICATORS**
**III. ****	****ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT  ****	****INDICES AND INFORMATION**

## Goals of Ecosystem Assessment (section I)

**Summarize historical climate and fishing effects on BSAI and GOA ****	****	****	**
**Summarize possible future effects of climate and fishing on ecosystem structure and function –a work in progress****	****	****	****	****	****	**

## Objectives for Ecosystem Protection:

**Maintain predator-prey relationships **
**pelagic forage availability**
**spatial/temporal conc. of fishery impact on forage fish**
**removals of top predators**
**introduction of non-native species**
**Maintain diversity**** **
**species diversity**
**functional (trophic, structural habitat) diversity**
**genetic diversity**
**Maintain energy flow and balance**
**human-induced energy redirection**
**system impacts attributable to energy removal**

## Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands

- 70  	    75  	        80                 85                90                95                 00            04

**Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands**

## ECOSYSTEM STATUS INDICATORSSection II

**Physical environment**** ****(PDO, ice cover,...)**
**Habitat**** ****(contaminants, benthos, sediments,...)**
**Living Marine Resources**** ****(phytoplankton, zooplankton, forage fish, invertebrates, non-target fish species, marine mammals, seabirds,...)**
**Community or Ecosystem level**** ****(diversity, trophic level, model results,...)**

## ECOSYSTEM-BASED MGNT. INDICES AND INFORMATIONSection III

**	****-****Maintain Diversity**
**	****	****(bycatch, prohibited species, discards, non-target)**
**	****-****Maintain and Restore Fish Habitats**** **
**	****	****(areas closed, effort)**
**	****-****Sustainability**** **
**	****	****(trophic level of catch, stock status, size spectrum)**
**	****-****Humans are part of ecosystem**** **
**	****	****(fleet composition, overcapacity programs)**

**Notes:**
The final section of the Ecosystem Considerations appendix contains updated ecosystem-based management indices and information.

These indices are intended to provide either early signals of direct human effects on ecosystem components or to provide evidence of the efficacy of previous management actions.  

Four main goals of Ecosystem-based management that the Council put forward a few years ago are to:

-Maintain Diversity
		(indices included in the chapter to address this are bycatch, prohibited species, discards, non-target)
-Maintain and Restore Fish Habitats 
		(indices included to address this are areas closed, effort)
-Sustainability 
		(indices included to address this are trophic level of catch, stock status, size spectrum)
-Humans are part of ecosystem 
		(indices included to address this are fleet composition, overcapacity programs)

## CLIMATE	-PDO and AO (Rodionov et al.)

## OCEAN -Bering Sea Temperature and Ice (Rodionov et al.)

- -2

- -1

- 0

- 1

- 2

- S

- t

- d

- 0

- 20

- 40

- 60

- 80

- D

- a

- y

- s

- a

- f

- t

- e

- r

- M

- a

- r

- c

- h

- 15

- I

- c

- e

- c

- o

- v

- e

- r

- i

- n

- d

- e

- x

- I

- c

- e

- r

- e

- t

- r

- e

- a

- t

- i

- n

- d

- e

- x

**OCEAN ****-****Bering Sea Temperature and Ice**** ****(Rodionov et al.)**

## EBS

**EBS**

**POLLOCK**

**-0.40**

**0.00**

**0.40**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**COD **

**-0.40**

**0.00**

**0.40**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**YFS **

**-0.40**

**-0.20**

**0.00**

**0.20**

**0.40**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**BS GT **

**-0.40**

**-0.20**

**0.00**

**0.20**

**0.40**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**ATF **

**-0.20**

**0.00**

**0.20**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**ROCK S.**

**-0.40**

**-0.20**

**0.00**

**0.20**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**FHS**

**-0.40**

**0.00**

**0.40**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**PLAICE**

**-0.15**

**-0.05**

**0.05**

**0.15**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**POP**

**-0.40**

**0.00**

**0.40**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**NORTHERNS **

**-0.20**

**0.00**

**0.20**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**ATKA**

**-0.80**

**0.70**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

## GOA

**GOA**

**SABLEFISH**

**-1.00**

**0.00**

**1.00**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**POLLOCK **

**-0.40**

**0.00**

**0.40**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**COD **

**-0.20**

**0.00**

**0.20**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**0.00**

**0.10**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**NORTHERNS **

**-0.40**

**0.00**

**0.40**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**Dusky **

**-0.40**

**0.00**

**0.40**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

**Dover**

**-0.20**

**0.00**

**0.20**

**1960**

**1966**

**1972**

**1978**

**1984**

**1990**

**1996**

**2002**

## S-R Model Residuals (Mueter)

**S-R Model Residuals**** ****(Mueter)**

## Ecosystem Measures and Influences

**Ecosystem Measures and Influences**

**Discards**

**Gear**

**Food web**
**interactions**

## Website with text and data http://intra.afsc.noaa.gov/reem/ecoweb/EcoChaptContents.cfm

**NEW ADDITIONS**

## Ecosystem Considerations Chapter  FATE BASICS

**Specific products: ****Time series of important oceanographic and ecological indicators on local to basin and annual to decadal scales**
**Incorporation into stock assessments: ****annual qualitative evaluation of ecosystem factors affecting stock, leading to quantitative evaluations**
**Completion date: ****Annual (Fall)**
**Time series maintenance: ****Updated annually**

## Index of Water Column Structure on Spawning Pollock Biomass in Shelikof Strait

- Spawning Pollock Anomalies

**Index of Water Column Structure on Spawning Pollock Biomass in Shelikof Strait**

## Index of Water Column Structure on Spawning Pollock Biomass in Shelikof Strait

**HYPOTHESIS:**
**The number of pollock that enter Shelikof Strait to spawn is dependent on temperature and/or transport in the strait.  **

## Index of Water Column Structure on Spawning Pollock Biomass in Shelikof Strait

**VARIABLES (March 1981-2002):**
**  ****Temperature ****(>90m; Sullivan)**
**  ****Winds: alongshore, cross-shelf, wind speed****3 ****(Bond)**
**  ****Transport ****(>100m; SPEM; Spillane, Hermann, Stabeno)**

## PCA

**PCA**

## Index of Water Column Structure on Spawning Pollock Biomass in Shelikof Strait

**VARIABLES (March 1981-2002):**
**  ****Temperature**** ****(>90m; Sullivan)**
**  ****Winds: alongshore, cross-shelf, wind speed****3**** ****(Bond)**
**  ****Transport**** ****(>100m; SPEM; Spillane, Hermann, Stabeno)**
**  ****Freshwater**** ****(Royer)**
**  ****Salinity**** ****(>90m; Sullivan)**
**  ****Retention index**** (simulated drifters >150m; Spillane)**

## LINEAR SALINITY MODEL

**LINEAR SALINITY MODEL**
**R****2****=0.292   p=0.046**

## GAM MODELS

- Salinity -only significant result
- Salinity is linearly related to SPA (explains 29% of variance)
- Salinity predictor misses some anomalies: 1992, 1996, and 2002
- Sample size is too small to include more than one variable in GAM

## Index of Water Column Structure on Spawning Pollock Biomass in Shelikof Strait FATE BASICS

**Specific products:****  Time series of temperature, index of flow and complexity of flow, effects on spawning pollock biomass**
**Incorporation into stock assessments:**** Could be used to adjust EIT survey estimates ****if**** a relationship was found**
**Completion date:****  2005**
**Maintenance of time series:****  Updated annually**

## Index of water column structureBering Sea pollock

- Effect of changes in water temperature:
- May affect our ability to survey fish
- May affect fish mortality (cannibalism)

## 1999	3.57 mmt			(Ianelli)

- 1999	3.57 mmt			(Ianelli)

## 2001	4.14 mmt			(Ianelli)

- 2001	4.14 mmt			(Ianelli)

## Area specific abundance-at-age patterns

**Area specific abundance-at-age patterns**
**(Ianelli)**

## Bering Sea Survey Station Data

- -1982-2001
- -Diet
- -Predator size
- -Prey pollock size
- -Temperature

## Temperature Data

- -Bottom
- -Difference between surface and bottom
- -Minimum, maximum
- -Extent of <2 ̊C, <0 ̊C
- -Average in top layer, depth of top layer
- -Average rate of change between layers
- -Maximum rate of change
- -...and more...

## Pollock Cannibalism

- -Linear
- -Non-linear (GAM)
- -PCA?

- Cannibalism of age-0, age-1, & older pollock ~ water column structure variables

## Index of Water Column Structure andPollock Cannibalism/MortalityFATE BASICS

**Specific products:****  Time series of temperature, index of water column stability/stratification, effects on pollock cannibalism**
**Incorporation into stock assessments:**** Could be used to adjust mortality estimates**
**Completion date:****  2006**
**Maintenance of time series:****  Updated annually**

## Index of Advection in the E. Bering Sea and effects on winter-spawning flatfish recruitment

**Index of Advection in the E. Bering Sea and effects on winter-spawning flatfish recruitment**

- Relative Recruitment

**Transport to nursery areas, 1980-89**

**Transport away from nursery areas, **
**1990-97**

## SUMMARY

**SUMMARY**

**Ecosystem Considerations ****(& PICES rpt):**
**delivers, examines, and maintains time series of ecological indicators**
**will facilitate use of indicators in stock assessment**
**Development of indicators:**
**water column structure and pollock spawning biomass**
**water column structure and pollock cannibalism**
**advection and flatfish recruitment**