# Presentation: 460658

## ORNL Analysis Activities

**Robin L. Graham**
**Environmental Sciences Division**
**Oak Ridge National Laboratory**
**Analysis Round Table Meeting**
**Golden, CO**
**July 29, 2003**

## Team Members

**Janet Cushman (ORNL)**
**Mark Downing (ORNL)**
**Robin Graham (ORNL)**
**Lynn Kszos (ORNL)**
**Bob Perlack (ORNL)**
**Shahab Sokhansanj (ORNL)**
**Anthony Turhollow (ORNL)**
**Marie Walsh (ORNL)**
**Lynn Wright (ORNL)**

**NREL ( Mann, Sheehan, Spathe)**
**INEEL ( Foust, Hoskinson, Hess)**
**University of British Columbia **
**University of Tennessee **
**University of Kentucky  **
**University of Saskatchewan **
**Kansas State University**
**First American Scientific Inc.**** **

## ORNL Analysis customers

**State and Federal policymakers**
**DOE Biomass Program**
**DOE Energy Information Administration**
**Entrepreneurs/Industry**
**R&D organizations **
**Energy and Environmental NGOs (****Union of Concerned Scientists, Resources for the Future****)**
**Communities**

## Integration of various elements of biomass supply for enterprise and market development  

## ORNL  - Current Analysis Projects

**Feedstock supply curves (price and qty)**
**Review of national feedstock supply estimates**
**Update of energy crop cost model (Biocost)**
**Market Penetration – regulatory factors**
***Feedstock supply simulation (collection, processing, storage, transportation)***
***Sensitivity analysis of corn stover collection costs***
***Contrasting delivered cost of baled or cubed corn stover  ***
***Equipment development CRADA***

## Feedstock Supply curves

**Multiple feedstocks **
**Currently in units of  $/dry ton & tons; hope to transform to $/MBtu**
**County-level, State-level, National level estimates**
**Modeled (very different models for each resource)**
**Sometimes cost, sometimes price**
**Generally farmgate or millgate – **_**not delivered**_
**Need continual updating (not like wind or solar resource estimates)**

## Starting at the farm ( or mill or forest....) Why the bottoms-up approach to biomass feedstock supply curves?

**“****The usual econometric tools are not useful for estimating the supply of residues because substantial markets for these products do not yet exist. Specifically there is no output and price data. Entry-point supply estimates are appropriate because the level of producer participation in residue harvest is the main supply adjustment.”  **
** *****Gallagher et al 2003 Biomass from Crop Residues: Cost and Supply Estimates. USDA Ag Economic Report 819.***
**This same argument can be made for most all biomass supplies, not just residues.  We have to estimate supply from the producer’s perspective. That means the farmer for ag residues or energy crops.**
**Thus the bottoms-up approach to building national supply curves.**
**Thus the variability in biomass feedstock supply curves.**

## National supply curves* for Energy crops(POLYSYS output)

- *Also available at the State and county level

## Status of Feedstock supply curve data

| Type | supply | Delivered? | Cost or price | Year$ | Most recent Analysis  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Crop residues | annual | farmgate | cost | 2002$ | 2003 |
| Energy crops | annual | farmgate | price | 1997$ | 1999 |
| Mill wastes | annual | delivered | price | 1999$ | 1999 |
| Urban wood waste | annual | farmgate | price | 2002$ | 2003 |
| Forest wastes | total | farmgate | cost | $2000 | 2002 |

## Geographic variation in percent of gross corn stover supply that

- Current analyses – Developing crop residue supply curves *Methods for estimating sustainability constraints on supply*

-  can be harvested with “acceptable” erosion rates

## Current analyses - Biomass supply information on the webWeb tool for viewing potential biomass supplies within a state (or county)

- Current analyses - Biomass supply information on the web*Web tool for viewing potential biomass supplies** within a state (or county)*

- Users will also be able to download excel files with supply data

- Users will be provided simple explanations of resources and resource assumptions

## Web Capability- Identify resources within a certain radius of collection

## Example Web results

## ORNL Supply curve customers: The information is useful for strategy; less so for tactics

**State and Federal policymakers**
**DOE Biomass Program ****( What’s the potential magnitude of Bioenergy)**
**DOE Energy Information Administration**
**Entrepreneurs/Industry (only strategically)**
**R&D organizations**** ****(input to LCA, TEA, policy studies)**
**Energy and Environmental NGOs (****Union of Concerned Scientists, Resources for the Future****)**
**Communities**

## Goals & Endpoints of supply curve analysis

**R&D direction ( feeds LCA, TEA, benefits analysis)**
**Program direction (where, how big)**
**Databases for others to use in local, state and national analyses**
**Benefits to industry are mostly indirect**

## More current projects

**Review of national feedstock supply estimates **
**White paper reviewing published feedstock supply estimates, the underlying assumptions, and explaining differences. Because feedstock prices and supplies are modeled, differences in model assumptions can lead to widely varying estimates of cost and supply. **
**Update of energy crop cost model (Biocost)**
**Biocost predicts the cost of growing and harvesting switchgrass, hybrid poplar, and willow. It was last updated in 1998. This year is being updated for 2003 input prices (labor, fertilizer etc) and harvest practices. **
**Market Penetration – regulatory factors**
**Rules, and regulations can impact market penetration. White paper discussion.**

## Success stories

**EIA now relies on our supply data**
**USDA is now using results from POLYSYS in their feedstock supply analyses and POLYSYS results influenced the Bioenergy 2000 Act**
**Our databases (ORRECL) and models (BIOCOST) are regularly used by the public **