# Presentation: 747408

## Edwards Aquifer Recovery Implementation Program

## FWS is here!

- Upstream Users
- -San Antonio

- Downstream
- Users
- -Recreation
- -Urban Areas

- Species
- Needs

- Edwards Aquifer
- "The Real World"

- SB 3

## Edwards Aquifer RIP Structuring?

| Decision-Aiding Models |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Objectives |  |  |  |  |
| Alt | Sp1 | Sp2 | $ | X | m |
| A | 20 | 11 | 4.4 | 120 | 20 |
| B | 14 | 2 | 2.9 | 89 | 13 |

**Biological-System **
**Models**

**Research & **
**Monitoring**

- Decision
- Structuring Framework
**PrOACT**

- Stakeholder engagement in all steps

- Edwards Aquifer

## Jeopardy Analysis Structuring

**Biological-System Models**

**Jeopardy Def &**
**Decision Criteria**

- Edwards Aquifer

## Slide 5

## Slide 7

## Slide 8

## Decision Problem 

- 	Avoid jeopardy and contribute to the recovery of the Texas wild rice and Comal Springs dryopid beetle through a Habitat Conservation Plan with a 20 year permit

## Species

- Texas wild-rice
- (*Zizania texana*)

-  	Comal Springs dryopid beetle (*Stygoparnus comalensis*)

## FWS Objectives

- Avoid jeopardy of two specie
- Texas Wild Rice
- Comal Springs Dryopid Beetle
- Contribute to their recovery

## What is Jeopardy?

- “Jeopardize the continued existence of” means to engage in an action that reasonably would be expected, directly or indirectly, to reduce appreciably the likelihood of both the survival and recovery of a listed species in the wild...

## Baseline of Species

- Likelihood of Survival

- Time

- Baseline

## Jeopardy

- Likelihood of Survival

- Time

- Project Description / Action

- Appreciable Reduction in Survival and Recovery

- Extinction

- Baseline

## Recovery is the point at which a species no longer warrants listing under the ESA

- This means, the species is no longer “likely to become in danger of extinction in all or a significant portion of its range in the foreseeable future.” (e.g, no longer a threatened or endangered species)
- So, recovery is when the likelihood (or probability) of extinction over some future (time) is low enough again to no longer be a danger

## Baseline of Species

- Likelihood of Survival

- Time

- Baseline

## Recovery

- Likelihood of Survival

- Time

- Project Description / Action

- Increase Likelihood of Survival
- and Recovery

- Baseline

## Slide 18

## Area of Occupancy

- P(e) of Survival

- Potential
- Habitat

- Structures

- Recreation

- Habitat Damage

- Flood Damage

- WaterQuality

- Spring Flow

- Invasive
- Plants

- Floating
- Vegetation

## -

- Saline water
- Intrusion

- Pollution

-  Land use

- Number of
- Beetles

- Spring Flow

- Spring
- Flow

- Water
- Quality

- Woody Vegetation

- Spring Interface

- +

**Notes:**
Spring flow is responsible for the presence of woody vegetation, since it provides water for the trees at the spring interface, this in turn, provides food and cover for the beetle.  Drawdown of springflow could cause saline water intrusion, which could alter water quality.  We believe current water quality conditions provided by water from the aquifer which is high in calcium and contains the necessary level of dissolved oxygen is adequate to maintain beetles.  Land use results in various inputs in the form of pollution, which could affect the beetle.

##  Flow 

- Restoration

- Threats
- -Invasive Plants
- -Recreation
- -Flood Damage

- Pumping

- Area Occupied
- ‘N”

- Change in
- Area Occupied

## Hypothetical Belief Net Model

- Texas Wild-rice
- Factors most influencing extinction risk

- Area < *“x”*
- ~ extinction risk

## Flow 100-180

| OUTCOMES
(Area of TWR in m2) |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | Gone | 51.7 |
|  | <1000 | 30.3 |
|  | 1000-3500 | 13.7 |
|  | >3500 | 4.3 |
| Alt. 1
 | Gone | 50.6 |
|  | <1000 | 20.9 |
|  | 1000-3500 | 15.2 |
|  | >3500 | 13.4 |
| Alt. 2 | Gone | 35.8 |
|  | <1000 | 46.4 |
|  | 1000-3500 | 17 |
|  | >3500 | 8 |

- Invasive – med.
- Floating - low
- Flood - low
- Recreation - low

- Flow  50 -100
- Invasive – low
- Floating - low
- Flood - low
- Recreation - low

- Invasive – low
- Floating - med
- Flood - med
- Recreation - med

## Example Simulation Result

- Probability (%)

- Area of Plant Cover after 20 years

- Probability of Low Plant Area Under Hypothetical “Red Alternative”

## Finding Factor Combinations Delineating JEOPARDY

- All points on the line
- (combinations of these two factors) produce the same
- outcome for extinction risk:
**JEOPARDY THRESHOLD**
- All points in Red Zone
- = **JEOPARDY**

- Level of Factor A (e.g., flow removal)

- Level of Factor B

## Finding Factor Combinations Delineating RECOVERY

**Blue**, **Red**, **Green **Management Alternatives
- equivalent reduction in extinction risk

## Jeopardy Analysis Structuring

**Biological-System Models**

**Jeopardy Def &**
**Decision Criteria**

- Edwards Aquifer

## Edwards Aquifer RIP Structuring?

| Decision-Aiding Models |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Objectives |  |  |  |  |
| Alt | Sp1 | Sp2 | $ | X | m |
| A | 20 | 11 | 4.4 | 120 | 20 |
| B | 14 | 2 | 2.9 | 89 | 13 |

**Biological-System **
**Models**

**Research & **
**Monitoring**

- Decision
- Structuring Framework
**PrOACT**

- Stakeholder engagement in all steps

- Edwards Aquifer

## Next Steps

- Go Back to the RIP – PrOACT
- Determine decision problem
- Stakeholder objectives
- Multi-objective alternatives
- Consequences
- Tradeoffs