# Presentation: 497478

## SAFE Document Summary BSAI Groundfish

- Plan Team Members (12 Members)
- NMFS		--	Loh-Lee Low
- 			Mike Sigler
- 			Grant Thompson
- 			Lowell Fritz
- 			Andy Smoker
- NPFMC	 	--	Dave Witherell
- USF&W	--	Kathy Kuletz
- ADF&G		--	Ivan Vining
- 			Kristin Mabrey
- Univ.Alaska	--	Brenda Norcross
- WDF&W	--	Farron Wallace
- Halibut Comm	--	Gregg Williams

**SAFE Document Summary ****BSAI Groundfish**

## SAFE Document 2001Contents

**Appendix A:  Summary**
**Appendix B:  Species-by-species**
**Appendix C:  Economic Status**
**Appendix D:  Ecosystems Considerations**

## Temperature

**Notes:**
Coldest Summer of 27 Year Survey = 1999 (0.81 vs. 2.54 degrees C)
Near normal in Yr 2000 and 2001 (2.17 degrees C)

## Slide 5

## Exploitable Biomass

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**By **
**Major Species Groups**

## BSAI Exploitable BiomassYr 2002 Total = 19.6 MMT

## BSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassYr 2002 Total = 6.1+ MMT

## BSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassYr 2002 Total = 594,780 MT

## Estimated ABCs

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**By **
**Major Species Groups**

## BSAI Groundfish Complex ABCs Yr 2002 Total = 3,185,076 MT

## BSAI Flatfish Complex ABCYr 2002 Total = 686,700 MT

## BSAI Rockfish Complex ABCsYr 2002 Total = 23,625 MT

## DescriptionSpecies-by-Species

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- DescriptionSpecies-by-Species

## Assessment Theme 

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- Assessment Theme

**ABC = Biomass x  Exploitation Rate**
**1.  Determine Biomass from**
**	****-- Surveys....Hydroacoustics, Trawls**
**	****-- Models......Variations of Age-Structure Models**
**2.  Determine Exploitation Rates**
**	****-- **** F**** ***msy*
**	****--  ****F ***overfishing*
**	****--  ****F**** ***abc***   ............... **Example** F**** ***40%*

## Assessment Theme 

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- Assessment Theme

**Evaluate Quality of Information about Population Dynamics of the Stocks and Use Fishing Rates according to Three Groupings of Stock Status**
**(Pages 3-4 of SAFE Summary)**
**Tier 1 -- Most Information**
**Tier 2 -- Less Information**
**Tier 3**
**Tier 4**
**Tier 5 -- Reliable Data on B and M**
**Tier 6 – Reliable Catch History Data****	**

## EBS PollockLong-Term Biomass Trend

## Year-class estimates

## EBS Pollock

## EBS Pollock AssessmentNotable Features

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- EBS Pollock AssessmentNotable Features

**1.  Year 2001 Surveys**
**	**Bottom Trawl Biomass = 4.14 mmt
- 		-- down 19.5% from Yr 2000 Survey
- 2.	**Year 2001 Models**
**	****7** versions of Age-Structure Models, Used Model 1
- 	Age3+ Biomass for 2002 = 9.8 mmt,
- 	down 12% from Yr 2001 Estimate
**Recruitment**
**	**Strong 1992 & 1996 Year Classes

## Aleutian Island Region Pollock AssessmentNotable Features

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- Aleutian Island Region Pollock AssessmentNotable Features

**Age-Structure Model don’t work – Not a Unit Stock**
**Assessment Depends on Surveys**
- 	Survey Year		Biomass
- 	1991			167,140
- 	1994			 77,503
- 	1997			 93,512
- 	2000			105,554
**ABC = Biomass x 75%M ****(Tier 5)**
- 	= 23,800 mt
**	**

## Bogoslof Region PollockSurvey Biomass

## Bogoslof Region Pollock ABC

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**1.  Method 1 – Tier 5**
**	****	****ABC = Biomass x 0.75 M **
**	****	****ABC = 34,800 mt**
**Method 2 – Using SSC Procedure **
- With 2 mmt as Target Biomass
**	****	****ABC = 4,310 mt**
**	**

## BSAI Pacific Cod

## Pacific Cod AssessmentNotable Features

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- Pacific Cod AssessmentNotable Features

**1.  Year 2001 Surveys**
**	**-- EBS Trawl Biomass = 830,500 t,
- 		 up 57 % from 2000
**2.  Year 2001 Model**
**	**-- Update of Last Year’s Model
- 	-- Estimated 2002 Biomass = 1.54 mmt,  up 17%
**3.  Recruitment**
**	**-- Year classes since 1992 have been below average
- 	--  Except for average 1996 & 1999 year classes
- 		and above average Yr 2000 recruitment

## BSAI Flatfish Complex BiomassYr 2002 Total = 6.1+ MMT

## EBS Yellowfin Sole

## Yellowfin Sole AssessmentNotable Features

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- Yellowfin Sole AssessmentNotable Features

**Survey Biomass**
**	**-- Relatively high biomass, doubled from 1975-79
- 	-- further increased to 2.3 mmt in 1981
- 	-- Declining in recent years as strong year classes phases out of the population
**2.  Models**
**	**-- Estimated 2002 Biomass = 1.6 mmt,
- 		 down 33% from 2001
- 	-- biomass is still high but definitely declining
**3.****	****Recruitment**
**	**-- Low recruitment in last decade

## EBS Greenland Turbot

## Greenland Turbot AssessmentNotable Features

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- Greenland Turbot AssessmentNotable Features

**Survey Biomass**
**	**-- EBS Trawl Biomass assess juveniles only
**2.  Modeling**
**	**-- Yr 2002 Age 1+ biomass = 208,000 mt,
- 		down 7 % from Yr 2001
- 	-- biomass is generally low and relatively stable
**3.****	****Recruitment**
**	**-- Generally Low recruitment in last 2 decades

## EBS Arrowtooth Flounder

## EBS Rock Sole

## EBS Flathead Sole

## EBS Alaska Plaice

## BSAI Rockfish Complex BiomassYr 2002 Total = 594,780 MT

## Bering Sea/Aleutians POP

## POP AssessmentNotable Features

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- POP AssessmentNotable Features

**Present Assessment**
**	**-- Single Model to Combined Bering Sea/Aleutians
**Biomass Trend**
- 	-- Rather Stable Trend in recent years after some rebuilding
**Recruitment**
- 	-- Rather Poor Recruitment in recent years

## Other Red Rockfish AssessmentNotable Features

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- Other Red Rockfish AssessmentNotable Features

**Normally split Other Red Rockfish into:**
- 	--  Northern/Sharpchin
- 	--  Rougheye/Shortraker
**2.  Tier 5 ABC = Survey Biomass x 0.75M**
**	**	Stock		EBS		Aleutians
- 		Northern	19 mt		6,745 mt (99.7%)
- 		Rougheye	32 mt		   230 mt (89.1%)
- 		Shortraker	84 mt		   682 mt (89.0%)
- 		Sharpchin	(included in Other Rockfish Group)

## Other Rockfish AssessmentsNotable Features

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- Other Rockfish AssessmentsNotable Features

**Tier 5 ABC = Survey Biomass x 0.75 M**
**	**
- 		Stock	Year	Survey Biomass	ABC
- 		EBS	2002	              6,880		 361
- 		AI	2001		 12,900		 676

## Aleutian Islands Atka Mackerel

## Atka Mackerel AssessmentNotable Features

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- Atka Mackerel AssessmentNotable Features

**Reference Max ABC = 124,500 mt**
**2.  ****However, for ABC Considerations**
**	**-- Survey Biomass Shows high variability
- 	-- Yr 2002 Model biomass = 439,700 mt,
- 		 up 3 % from Yr 2000;	but declined 63 % since 1991
- 	-- Projected Female Spawning Biomass would remain below reference B40% level until 2005
- 	-- Too early to confirm strength of 1998 Year Class
**3.  ABC adjusted downward by SSC Strategy  **r
- 	-- Fabc = adjusted down to  0.21, down 40% from max rate
**4.  Thus Adjusted ABC = 49,000 mt**

## Sablefish-all areas

## Sablefish AssessmentNotable Features

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- Sablefish AssessmentNotable Features

**Longline Survey Abundance**
**	**-- Increased 16% in numbers and 13% in weight from 2000-2001** **
**2.  Modeling**
**	**-- Abundance now projected to be slightly increasing
**3.****	****ABC**
**	**-- ABC of 17,300 mt of the entire stock is  apportioned by 5-year exponential weighting of abundance indices by region: EBS, AI & GOA

## Squid AssessmentNotable Features

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- Squid AssessmentNotable Features

**Same Analysis as Last Year**
** **
**2.  Tier 5 Situation**
**	**** ****	**ABC = 0.75M * Biomass

## Other Species AssessmentNotable Features

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- Other Species AssessmentNotable Features

**Debate of Splitting or Not Splitting into Major Taxonomic Groups: **
- 	Split >116 Species into 4 Taxonomic Groups:
- 		Shark, Octopus, Skates, Sculpins
** ****2.  ABC Calculations**
**	**** ****	****Group****	****	****Tier****	****Biomass****	****ABC****	****	****SSC’s ABC**
**	**Shark		6	n/a		     387
- 	Octopus		6	n/a		     405
- 	Skates		5	432,00	32,400
- 	Sculpins		5	227,000	25,100
- 					Total		58,292	39,148

## BSAI Groundfish ComplexYr 2000 to Yr 2002

**Exploitable Biomass**
-  19.6 mmt for Yr 2002
-  Down 0.56 mmt from
- Yr 2001
**ABC**
-   3.185 mmt for Yr 2002
-   Up 0.258 mmt from Yr 2001

## Summary (From Table 4)(Pollock) 

| Stock | Biomass (mt) | ABC (mt) | ABC Change
(2002 fr 2001) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pollock, EBS | 9,800,000 | 2,110,000 | Up 15 % |
| Pollock, AI | 106,000 | 23,800 | No change |
| Pollock, Bogoslof | 232,000 | 4,310 | Down 50 % |

## Summary ( fromTable 4) (Cod and Sablefish) 

| Stock | Biomass (mt) | ABC (mt) | ABC Change
(2002 fr 2001) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pacific Cod, BSAI | 1,540,000 | 223,000 | Up 19 % |
| Sablefish, EBS | 28,000 | 1,930 | Up 24 % |
| Sablefish, AI | 38,000 | 2,550 | Up 2 % |

## Summary ( fromTable 4) (Flatfishes) 

| Stock | Biomass (mt) | ABC (mt) | ABC Change
(2002 fr 2001) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| YellFn. Sole | 1,597,000 | 116,000 | Down 34 % |
| Grn. Turbot | 208,000 | 8,100 | Down 4 % |
| Arrow. Fl | 671,000 | 113,000 | Down 3 % |
| Rock Sole | 1,850,000 | 225,000 | Down 1 % |
| Flathead Sole | 695,000 | 82,600 | Down 2 % |
| Alaska Plaice | 1,110,000 | 143,000 | Up 32 % |
| Other Flats | 78,300 | 18,100 |   |

## Summary ( fromTable 4) (Rockfishes) 

| Stock | Biomass (mt) | ABC (mt) | ABC Change
(2002 fr 2001) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| POP, BSAI | 377,000 | 14,800 | Up 24 % |
| Northern R | 150,000 | 6,760 |  |
| Rougheye R | 14,000 | 262 |  |
| Shortraker R | 34,000 | 766 |   |
| Other R, EBS | 6,880 | 361 |   |
| Other R, AI | 12,900 | 676 |   |

## Summary ( fromTable 4) (Atka Mackerel & Other Species) 

| Stock | Biomass (mt) | ABC (mt) | ABC Change
(2002 fr 2001) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Atka Mackerel | 439,700 | 49,000 | Down 29 % |
| Squid | NA | 1,970 | No Change |
| Other Species | 667,000 | 39,148 | Up 16 % |

## Adjustments to Reduce ABCs - due To Uncertainties

| Stock | Maximum Permissible ABC (mt) | RecommendABC (mt) | Main Reasons for Adjustment |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pollock, Bogoslof | 34,800 | 4,310 | SSC Procedure |
| Pacific Cod | 253,000 | 223,000 | Risk-Adverse Optimization |
| Green. Turbot | 30,200 | 8,100 | Low B & R |
| Sablefish, All | 21,300 | 17,300 | Simulated C |
| Atka Mackerel | 71,300 | 49,000 | Stochastic Projections of F |

## Adjustments to ABCs- due to Ecosystems

**The Team was unable to isolate individual cases where ABC adjustments are needed to be made to address ecosystem concerns**

## Year 2002 Summary

**ABC = 3,185,076 mt**
**TAC = 2,000,000 mt**

## Slide 56

## End of Slide Presentation

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