# Presentation: 081205

## 3G and Hot Spot Networking

**Dennis Roberson**
**SVP – CTO **

**3G and Hot Spot Networking**

## World Market Trend (circ fall 2000)

**1 ****Billion + **
**Subscribers**

**World Market Trend (circ fall 2000)**

**1 ****Billion **
**Subscribers**

**INTERNET**

**380 ****Million Subscribers**

**WIRELESS**

**580 ****Million Subscribers**

**2000**

**2004**

**“****WIRELESS ****INTERNET”**

**Market Size**

**Source:  Commerce Net Research, NUA.NET, Motorola**

**Notes:**
D- Got a good number for 2000 Internet.  But I feel the previous chart has better data. 

## Advertising in The Economist

## Wireless Will Surpass Wired Access

**Source: Salomon Smith Barney, Motorola Estimates.**

**Wireless**
**Internet**

**Wired**
**Internet**

**Wireless**
**Voice**

**Wired**
**Voice**

- *Estimate

**Notes:**
D- These are my extrapolations of the SSB data.  My Wireless Internet number is an estimate for cellular use in 05, since I assume all phones will have internet capability.

## Worldwide Cumulative Subscribers

**Notes:**
Source: Dennis Roberson Chinese Academy presentation. 

WW subscribers growing to 1.7B in 2006 
14% CAGR
 2G reaches saturation in 2002-2003
 2+G technologies penetrate ~60% of total subscribers by 2006

## New devices are being introduced

- _3G Candybar_
- Voice, Data

- _3G Candybar_
- Voice, Data, Video

*Voice*

*Voice/Data*

*Voice/Data/Image/Video*

- _3G Clam_
- Voice

*Data*

*Data/Voice*

- _3G Clam_
- Voice, Data

- _iMode_
- Voice, Data

- _Mini Computer_
- Data

- _PDA/PHS_
- Data, Voice

- _2-Way Communicator_
- Data/voice

*Card *
*Phone*

*Electronic*
*Wallet*

*Embedded*

- _3G Candybar_
- Voice

***New devices are being introduced***

**Enhanced Devices**

## Wireless bandwidth is increasing...

**3G**

**2.5G**

**2G**

**Data Transmission Speed - kbps**

- 9.6

- 32

- 64

- 128

- 144

- 384

- 2,000        20->200K

**Still Imaging**

**Video Streaming**

**Voice**

**Audio Streaming**

**Text Messaging**

**E-mail**

**Mobile Radio**

**Mobile**
**Television**

**Mobile Video **
**Conferencing**

**E-Commerce**

**Video On Demand**

**Increasing Value**

**Wireless bandwidth is**** ****increasing****...**

**3.5G**

**4G**

**Shared Environments **

**Notes:**
Digital services evolve
Networks grow from 1G (voice-only) to 3G (streaming video applications)
Data transmission speeds push past the 64 Kbps inflection point

For increased
Value of digital services
Minutes of use
Number of subscribers
Monthly revenue per subscriber (voice + value-added services)

## Technology Evolution

**Notes:**
Of the 2G technologies, GSM is the clear winner, with the others a distant second. 
PDC, iDEN, and IS-136 will probably migrate (as opposed to evolve) to a CDMA based physical layer technology.
Examples:  
Japan: Currently PDC or cdmaOne. NTTDoCoMo to WCDMA, KDDI to cdma2000
Korea: Currently cdmaOne. Two 3G licenses for WCDMA, one for cdma2000
AT&T: Have indicated interest in GPRS, EDGE, and WCDMA. Have not indicated how they plan to deploy. 
Note: Not all technologies shown (TD-SCDMA, cdma2000 3X, ...) 

Although evolution/migration paths for all current technologies are shown leading to a CDMA based technology, the GSM evolution to GPRS and then to EDGE will have an extremely large presence in the forwseeable future.

The iDEN evolution comes from Jaime Borras.  iDEN packet data is really a 2.5 G technology in his mind. Maximum raw data rate is 96 kbps. Throughput is about 22-25 kbps including all the IP overhead.  The evolution to a 3G technology is 2-3 years away.  The fact that the specific 3G technology is cdma2000 is NOT PUBLIC INFORMAION.  

## The Promise of 3G

**32**

**64**

**9.6**

**128**

**144**

**384**

**2,000**

**1G**

**2G**

**3G**

**Voice**

**Text Messaging**

**Video Streaming**

**Still Imaging**

**Audio Streaming**

**Data Transmission Speed - k bps**

**JPEG**
**   ****Still Photos**

**E-Commerce**

**The Promise of 3G**

**Notes:**
As data transmission speed increases, more and more services are possible. 
1G and 2G services are primarily voice, text messaging, and low-speed data (< 32 kbps)
3G offers higher speed data (typically > 128 kbps) and new services.
3G should retain existing services, and hopefully improve the capacity for existing services
Rough - The purpose of this presentation is to examine the evolution of personal communications from today’s 1G and 2G technologies to either 2.5G or 3G in terms of cost to the operator.

* Remind board that they received (?) a white paper [from Roger / Dave] on 3G one year ago.

## Technology Data Rates

**32**

**64**

**9.6**

**128**

**144**

**384**

**2,000**

**1G**

**2G**

**3G**

**Voice**

**Text Messaging**

**Video Streaming**

**Still Imaging**

**Audio Streaming**

**Data Transmission Speed - k bps**

**Technology Data Rates**

**cdma2000**

**GSM, IS-136, IS-95A**

**GPRS**

**EDGE**

**WCDMA**

**Notes:**
To fix: Need to be consistent with peak or avg data rate. Adjust color bars, reproduce on earlier slide.

As data transmission speed increases, more and more services are possible. 
1G and 2G services are primarily voice, text messaging, and low-speed data (< 32 kbps)
3G offers higher speed data (typically > 128 kbps) and new services.
3G should retain existing services, and hopefully improve the capacity for existing services
Rough - The purpose of this presentation is to examine the evolution of personal communications from today’s 1G and 2G technologies to either 2.5G or 3G in terms of cost to the operator.

* Remind board that they received (?) a white paper [from Roger / Dave] on 3G one year ago.

## User Peak Data Rate

**Notes:**
Peak data rate is only loosely correlated to spectral efficiency
Peak data rates for WCDMA and cdma2000 are optimistic for early products, which will be likely 384kbps and 144 kbps, respectively.

## What has happened to 3G Expectations?

**Spain **
**Licensing **
**With early TTM**

**Bumper UK **
**Licensing**

**Bumper**
**German**
**Licensing**

**Limited WAP **
**Success**

**Slippage**
**Of commercial**
**GPRS**

**Italian + Swiss **
**Auction Failures**

**Terminal **
**Restrictions**

**Huge New **
**Entrant Interest**

**Industry**
**Financial **
**Impact**

**Expectations**
**For Early**
**3G Deployment**

**High**

**Low**

**Dec**

**Jul**

**Jan**

**2000**

**Notes:**

Source: GTSS  GSM/EDGE/UMTS Systems DivisionMonthly Intelligence Overview Report – November / December 2000

Dave: The following comment was at the end of the arrow on original slide:
“Realisation that GPRS + 3G Will not make significant  Revenue impact in 2001  - Focus on 2G”
Corrected spelling error of “licensing” 

## Evolution driven by...

- Demand

- Spectrum Cost

- Data Efficiency / Capacity

- Voice Capacity

- Availability

- Equipment Cost

**Notes:**
Framework for rest of presentation

## 3G Challenges...

- Demand

- Spectrum Cost

- Data Efficiency

- Voice Capacity

- Availability

- Equipment Cost

**Notes:**
Framework for rest of presentation

## 2G Cellular Volume Deterioration

- Shipments [Millions]

## Cellular Subscriber Growth

**USA**

**China**

- Estimates

**India**

**Japan**

**Germany Italy / UK**

## 3G Spectrum Costs

**Estimated**
**Cost per **
**Licence**
**in $Bn**

**= Already Issued**
**Before Forecast**

**Auction**

**Hybrid**

**Beauty Contest**

**Raised Half **
**Of expectations**

**Actual Raised**

**Raised only 20%**
**Of expectations**

**Postponed**
**Because of **
**lack of interest**

**Baskerville Forecast: Q200**

**Raised only 33% of**
**Expectations**

**Notes:**
Overall conclusions from two spectrum slides:
Spectrum
* cdma2000 and EDGE can evolve in 2G spectrum
* WCDMA requires new spectrum
* Declining auction costs should continue through increased supply of 3G spectrum

Source: GSD product mgmt June 12, 2000
Original title: “3G Licencing (sic) – the end of high costs?”

## 3G Spectrum Availability

**ITU**

**Japan**

**Europe**

**China**

**USA**

**3G**

**3G**

**3G**

**3G**

**3G**

**3G**

**3G**

**1885**

**1885**

**1885**

**2025**

**2025**

**2025**

**2025**

**2110**

**2110**

**2110**

**2110**

**2110**

**2200**

**2200**

**2200**

**2200**

**2200**

**1850**

**DECT**

**1880**

**1900**

**1895**

**1918.1**

**PHS**

**1980**

**2010**

**1980**

**2010**

**Broadcast**
**Auxiliary**

**1930**

**1910**

**1930**

**1990**

**PCS**

**PCS**

**Unl.**
**PCS**

**Reserve**

**MSS**

**MSS**

**All Frequencies in MHz**

*** Region 2**

**MSS**

**MSS**

**3G**

**2170**

**2120**

**2170**

**1996**

**2010**

**2186**

**2150**

**DCS**
**1800**

**DCS**
**1800**

**1710**

**1785**

**1805**

**3G Spectrum Availability**

**Notes:**
Overall conclusions from two spectrum slides:
Spectrum
* cdma2000 and EDGE can evolve in 2G spectrum
* WCDMA requires new spectrum
* Declining auction costs should continue through increased supply of 3G spectrum

Notes:
* 3G spectrum being used for 2G extensions in US.
* WARC2000 set aside 160 MHz of spectrum worldwide for 3G. (Source: UMTS Forum file WARC2000.pdf).  To be available by 2010.  Bands are: 1710-1885 MHz and 2500-2690 MHz.

To do: 
* Augment this slide to illustrate the 2G spectrum as well (800 MHz)?

## 3G - Operator Slippages

- 	_**Original Plan**_**	**_**Latest Plan**_**	**_**Slippage**_**	**_**Publicly announced reason **_
- Vodafone UK	Nov-01	Nov-02	12-16 months	Handsets
- SK Telecom	May-02	May-03	12 months	Handsets, infrastructure
- Telefonica	Aug-01	Jul-02	11 months	Licensing relaxation
- Japan Telecom	Nov-01	Oct-02	8-11 months	Gain 3GPP standards
- BT Cellnet	Dec-01	Sep-02	10 months	Infrastructure
- France Telecom	Feb-02	H2-02	5-10 months	Handsets
- NTT	May-01	Oct-01*	6 months	Handsets, software, interference

**BT Cellnet**

**SK Telecom**

**Japan Telecom**

**Vodafone UK**

**Telefonica**

**Q4**

**Q1**

**Q2**

**Q3**

**Q4**

**Q1**

**Q2**

***Planned Launch***

***Revised Launch***

**May**

**May**

**Nov**

**Nov**

**Nov**

**Aug**

**2001**

**2002**

**2003**

**Q3**

**July**

**Oct**

**Dec**

**Sep**

**France Telecom**

**Feb**

**Sep/Oct**

**NTT**

**Oct***

***Delay in Roll Out***

## Bandwidths Trends Compared(early adopters, highest bandwidths)

**Bandwidths Trends Compared****(early adopters, highest bandwidths)**

**bps**

**Office LAN**

**Home/WAN**

**Personal Wireless**

**Internet Backbone**

**WLAN**

**Notes:**
Updated. C

## Bandwidth Trends - Personal Wireless (Mobile/Portable)

**Bandwidth Trends - Personal Wireless (Mobile/Portable)**

**bps**

**GPRS**

**3G**

**4G**

**2G**

**3.5G**

**Notes:**
Updated. C

## Wireless Data Trends

**10**

**100**

**1000**

**10000**

**100000**

**1000000**

**1996**

**1998**

**2000**

**2002**

**2004**

**2006**

**Year**

**Max Data Rate (Kbps)**

**Wide Area**
**B’tooth/802.15.3**
**HiperLAN2**
**Median2**
**IEEE 802.11**

**W-CDMA**

**EDGE**

**GPRS**

**HSCD**

**WLAN (~Fixed)**

**WAN (Fully Mobile)**

**PAN (Nomadic)**

## Key WLAN / PAN Radio Technologies

**Enterprise**
**Broadband**
**Home**
**Nomadic**

**2000**

**2003**

**2002**

**2001**

**2004**

**802.11b**

**HomeRF2 or 802.11a/e or HL2**

**Bluetooth/802.15.1**

**802.15.3**

**Speed: ****	****11 - 22Mbps**
**Technology:****	****2.4GHz, DSS**

**Speed: ****	****22 - 100Mbps**
**Technology:****	****5.XGHz, OFDM**

**Speed: ****	****1.1 Mbps**
**Technology:****	****2.4GHz, FH**

**Speed: ****	****10 - 22 – 54 Mbps**
**Technology:****	****5.XGHz, OFDM**

**Speed: ****	****700Kbps**
**Technology:****	****2.4GHz, FH**

**Speed: ****	****20+ Mbps**
**Technology:****	****2.4 GHz**
**Strategy:****	****Transistion to**
**	****5GHz WPAN; UWB**

**Products: Set-top box, etc**
**Driver: Reduce setup costs**
**new markets/services**

**Products: Cell-phones, etc**
**Driver: Competition,**
**new markets & products**

**All Speeds at RAW bandwidth.  Delivered **
**payload varies**

**Products: Vertical **
**Driver: Competition**

**Bluetooth2**

**Speed: ****	****2-10 Mbps**
**Technology:****	****2.4GHz FH**

- *Hotspots may use Enterprise or Nomadic technologies

**802.11a or HiperLAN2**

**HomeRF**

## Broadband “Island” Scenario

**Wide Area coverage Provided by 2G Carriers**

**Greater Washington DC Area**

**Broadband**
**802.11x**

**Pentagon, coverage provided by “US Military Telecom”**

**2.5G  GPRS**

**Broadband**
**802.11x**

**Reagan Airport, coverage provided by 3rd Party Vendor**

**Broadband**
**802.11x**

**Mall area coverage provided by Verizon**

**Requires a multi-mode device (GPRS and 802.11)**

**Requires a new billing model**

**Broadband “Island” Scenario**

**slide courtesy of Les Eastwood**

**Notes:**

What Does Today’s Data User Really Want From Broadband Wireless?
Access wherever he/she frequents -  Yes 
Low cost- flat rate billing (like home)  -  Yes
Mobility at high speed with seamless handoffs and handovers --  No!
Internet access is an interactive activity
User likely to be static (not moving) during session
Experience close to familiar desktop -  Yes 
Use existing Internet applications vs. new “3G” applications
Large screened portable preferred to a small screened cellphone -  Yes 

## Enterprise Wireless Mobility Model

- Level 3 - Regional Low
- Speed Wireless (56Kbps)

- Level 2 - Campus High
- Speed Wireless LANs
- (100Mbps)

- Level 1 - Personal Area Network (.5-10Mbps)

## WLANs and PANs Enhance Cellular 

**Timeliness: 11Mbps available now**
**Low Cost for Operator/Owner and User**
**Free Spectrum: 300-500MHz of unlicensed spectrum**
**Low equipment cost**** **
**Enables low cost/flat fee Wireless to consumer **
**Superior End User Experience**
**54Mb/s vs. 1-2Mb/s **
**All existing and future Internet applications already work**

**slide courtesy of Les Eastwood**

***(and Could ***_***Threaten***_*** 3G)***

## WLAN & Cellular Convergence

**     **

**WLAN & Cellular Convergence**
**Is there opportunity here?**

## Integrate Cellular with WLAN

**802.11**
**Or Any**
**WLAN**
**Technology**

**Internet**

_**Benefits:**_
**Local Access,  Common Control**
**Data & Voice**
**Point to Point Roaming**
**VPN over Public Network**
**Increasing Data Rates in More Places**
**Seamless Roaming and Billing**
**High Speed Mobility ...**

**Integrate Cellular with WLAN**

**Common Features/Capabilities**
** ****Authentication**
** ****Billing**
** ****Preferences/Call Control**
** ****Access Capable (802.11, BT, Cellular)**

**iMGW**
**Platform**

**Technology Tailored  for a Seamless Solution**

**Enterprise or Hot Spot**

**Nomadic**

**Home**

## Beyond 3G (B3G)

- 1G

- WLAN
- Hotspots

- GPRS
- +802.11

- 3G

- 4G

- 2G

- 1980’s

- 2000’s

- 2010’s

- UMTS +
- HiperLAN

- Cellular+
- WLAN+
- Bdcast

- GPRS
- +DVB

** ****B3G key attributes:**
** ****interworking and cooperation between different Radio Networks**
** ****user as the focus, opportune delivery of the content/services**
** ****multi-mode terminals free to camp on any available network**** **
**fully IP based**
**disruptive technology **
** ****potentially complementary to 3G**
** ****potentially competitive to 3G**** **

- 1990’s

## B3G Vision

**DVB-T**

**Ipv6 **
**Backbone(s)**

**Internet**
**IPv4********IPv6**

**Management domain**** **

**A moving IP-**** subnet**

**B3G Vision**

- Composite Radio Ressource management
- (Spectrum utilization, links/traffic optimization)

- Composite Domain Management
- (mobility, QoS, multicast, AAA)

- Composite Service Delivery management
- (Billing, ...)

**Management **
**Functions**** **

**Main Attributes:**
**Core network IPv6 based**
**Better support of mobility, security and “unlimited” address space**
**Wireless access points become IP gateways**
**Different radio access technologies deployed within a domain**
**Optimization of the radio resources**

## Spectrum Allocation at 5 GHz

- US

- Japan

- Europe

**BRAN/Hiperlan**

**U-NII**

**U-NII**

**MMAC**

- 5.15 - 5.35

- 5.15 - 5.35

- 5.725 -5.825

- 5.470 - 5.725

**BRAN/Hiperlan**

- 5.15 - 5.25

- Unlicensed
- 300 MHz

- License-exempt
- 455 MHz

- 100 MHz

**Spectrum Allocation at 5 GHz**

**200mW**

**1W**

**1W**

**50mW**

**50mW**

**250mW**

## WLAN Standards & Technologies

**HiperLAN 2**

**802.11b**

- 2.4 GHz
- 4ch. (80MHz)

- 5 GHz
- US: 12 ch. (300MHz)
- EU: 19 ch. (455MHz)
- JP: 5 ch. (100MHz)

- 54 Mbps/channel net bit rate
- Simple and adapted to corporate apps
- “Wireless Ethernet", no QoS, limited for multimedia
- Future 802.11e, h incl. QoS, DFS+TPC, security, roaming

- 54 Mbps/channel net bit rate
- Multimedia ready (supports QoS, Ethernet, ATM, 1394)
- Not widely adopted - pushed by Europe
- Better suited to Home & Multimedia applications

- 11Mbs/channel  net bit rate
- First on market, market education
- Limited in data rate, and capacity (spectrum, interference)

**802.11a**

- 802.11a+e+h ≈ HL2
- Japan  is going 11a for Corporate, and HiSWAN (NTT) for Home & Public

**IEEE802.11a evolutionary approach  ↔ HiperLAN2 support of multimedia**

## Forces affecting the Future of 5 GHz WLAN

**Forces affecting the Future of 5 GHz WLAN**

**Economy/Industry Downturn**

**Consumer Confusion**

** ****22 Mbps 2.4 GHz solutions**

** ****Technical Challenges**

** ****Enabling Applications**

**Cost**

**Capacity collapse 2.4GHz**

**Speed/Media needs**

**Quality of Service**

**2.4 GHz interference**

**Security**

**Range**

**V**
**O**
**L**
**U**
**M**
**E**

**T I M E**

## Wireless System Landscape

**Wireless System Landscape**

**Data Rate to the User**

**High Mobility**
**speech, some**
**data**
**Limited Mobility:**
**Speech, data**
**Fixed Access,**
**High speed data**
**In-Home /**
**In-Building**

- 3G

**Mobility,**
**Functions**

- WLAN / PAN

- 4G

**1Kbps**

**10Kbps**

**100Kbps**

**1Mbps**

**10Mbps**

**100Mbps**

- 2G

- 1G