# Presentation: 761382

## Renewable Resource Development in the Midwest:Findings from Repowering the Midwest

**Tim Woolf****Synapse Energy Economics****22 Pearl Street, Cambridge, MA 02139****www.synapse-energy.com**
**NREL Energy Analysis Forum****Golden, Colorado****August 13, 2001**

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## Repowering the Midwest

- Study was prepared for the Environmental Law and Policy Center and a group of regional energy and environmental organizations.
- Study Authors:
- Synapse Energy Economics
- Brower and Company
- Environmental Law and Policy Center
- Renewable Energy Policy Project
- Tellus Institute
- Report is available at www.repoweringmidwest.org

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## Existing Levels of Renewables in the Midwest

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## New Renewables Proposed for the Midwest

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## Business as Usual Forecast for the Midwest

- Forecast from DOE’s Annual Energy Outlook.
- Heavy reliance upon coal and nuclear plants.
- Electricity demand increases steadily.
- Large addition of new gas plants to meet load growth.

**Sources of Electricity in the Midwest.**
**Business As Usual Practices.**
- Generation (TWh)

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## The Clean Energy Development Plan

- Adopt aggressive, but realistic, mix of efficient and clean energy technologies:
- End-use efficiency.
- Wind turbines: both small clusters and large farms.
- Biomass: co-firing, combined heat and power, dedicated plants.
- Solar: photovoltaics.
- Efficient gas generation technologies:
- Combined heat and power.
- District energy systems.
- Fuel cells.
- Retire portion of older, less efficient coal plants in response to CO2 reduction policy.

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## New Renewable Capacity in the Clean Energy Plan

- New wind.
- 2010: 6,698 MW
- 2020: 24,510 MW
- Wind as % of total capacity.
- 2010: 4.2%
- 2020: 13.2%

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## New Renewable Generation in the Clean Energy Plan

- Renewables as % of total generation.
- 2010: 8.0%
- 2020: 21.9%
- Wind as % of total generation.
- 2010: 3.0%
- 2020: 11.3%

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## Distribution of New Renewables in 2020

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## Results of the Clean Energy Development Plan

- No new growth in electricity demand.
- New renewables:
- 8% of gen. by 2010.
- 22% by 2020.
- New efficient gas:
- 10% of gen. by 2010.
- 24% of gen. by 2020.
- No need for new gas CCs or CTs.

**Sources of Electricity in the Midwest.**
**The Clean Energy Development Plan.**
- Generation (TWh)

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## The Clean Energy Development Plan:CO2 Reductions Sufficient to Meet Kyoto Goal

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## Cost of the Clean Energy Development Plan

- The Clean Energy Development Plan can be achieved with modest increases in electricity costs:
- 1.5% increase in total electricity costs in 2010.
- 3.4% increase in total electricity costs in 2020.
- These costs are low partly because of the large net savings (i.e., costs reductions) available from end-use efficiency.
- The are also low because of the large amount of wind resources in the Midwest.

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## Policies to Promote Renewable Resources

- Renewable Portfolio Standard.
- 8% by 2010.
- 20% by 2020.
- Renewable Energy Investment Fund.
- System benefit charge of 0.1 ¢/kWh.
- Managed by an independent, non-profit administrator.
- Transmission pricing policies.
- Renewable representation in ISO and RTO governance.
- Eliminate pancaked rates.
- Flexibility in balancing real-time transmission capacity markets.
- Non-discriminatory spot-market rules.
- Various policies to support clean distributed generation.

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## Distribution of Wind Resources in the Midwest

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## Wind as Percent of Demand in the Great Plains: 2020

- States are not isolated electricity systems.
- In the MAAP region wind is 30% of total demand.

**Wind Generation as a Percentage of Total State ****or Regional Electricity Demand -- 2020**

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest

## Wind Transmission Needs

- Large concentration of wind resources in the western Great Plains states.
- These states have relatively low electricity demand.
- Most electricity demand is in the eastern states.
- Much of the wind generated in the western states needs to be transmitted to the eastern states.
- May require some upgrades in bulk transmission lines.
- “Wind on the Wires” project to address transmission issues:
- Remove transmission bottlenecks.
- Update transmission rules to provide wind with fair access.
- See www.windonthewires.org.

- Synapse Energy Economics -- Repowering the Midwest