# Presentation: 667713

## Changes in FY ‘06 Forecast since February...AgExports raised $2.5 billion to record $67 billionAgImports raised $1.5 billion to $65 billion AgTrade Surplus raised $1 billion to $2 billion

**FY 2006 Export Forecasts for**
**Ag, Fishery & Solid Wood Products**

- USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
- was released on May 24, 2006, 4pm EST
- Prepared by Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

## U.S. Agricultural Trade

**U.S. Agricultural Trade**

***Exports***

***Imports***

***Trade Surplus******   ***

- In 2006, horticultural products & grains drive export growth; soybeans are down.  Import growth continues on strong demand for fruits & vegs, wine & beer, veg oils, live animals & tropical products.

- Record

- 62.4

**67**

- 57.7

**65**

**4.7**

**2.0**

## Key FY 2006 Commodity/Country Changes in May

|  | 
Final
FY 2005 | Feb
FY ‘06
For. | May
FY ‘06
For. | 
Feb/May
Chg | 

Main Reasons |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Corn ($Bil) | 4.730 | 4.8 | 5.8 | +1.0 | (+) volume & price |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Corn (mmt) | 45.138 | 47.5 | 52.0 | +4.5 | (-) competition Argentina & China |
| Wheat (mmt) | 26.406 | 27.2 | 26.5 | -.7 | (-) US crop; (+) competition |

**Key FY 2006 Commodity/Country Changes in May**

- #1 Canada +$400 million to $11.4 billion (fresh & processed fruits, meats)
- #2 Mexico +$600 million to $10.4 billion (feed grains, fresh fruit, soymeal, meats)
- #3 Japan +$400 million to $8.0 billion (higher feed grain prices, fresh fruits, tree nuts)
- #4 China +$1.4 billion to $6.8 billion (cotton, hides, broiler meat, tobacco, fresh fruit)
-  **Top Regional Market:**
- Western Hemisphere forecast at $27.8 Billion
- (Asia 2nd at $24.1 Billion)

***Since February . . .***

## Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

**Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products**

- Includes corn gluten feed/meal

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $1.6 Billion to $18.1 Billion

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Coarse grain exports raised on less corn competition & increased sorghum demand from Mexico
-  Strong feed demand & ethanol production support higher corn prices
-  Lower wheat & rice export volumes, but higher unit values leave export value unchanged

## Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

**Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products**

**Excludes corn gluten feed/meal**

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $300 Million to $10.1 Billion

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Continued strong soybean sales to China
-  Stronger demand for US soybean meal from Latin America and Canada

## Export Outlook for Cotton

**Export Outlook for Cotton**

- Note:  FY ’05 and prior years based on U.S Census data; FY ’06 & ’07 forecasts based on WASDE MY forecast.

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $100 Million to $4.6 Billion

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Record U.S. cotton crop supports record exports
-  Record China import demand
-  Shipments increased 100,000 tons to 3.7 million tons as China shifts imports to earlier in year

## Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry

**Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry**

- Record

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $200 Million to $12.8 Billion

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Broiler meat exports raised to 2.4 million tons valued at $2 billion due to stronger sales to Russia and price-sensitive markets
-  Small gains in beef sales to Asia

## Export Outlook for Horticultural Products

- Record

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $100 Million to $16.4 Billion

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Weaker U.S. dollar supports exports
-  Strong fresh grape, fresh apple and fruit juice sales

## Export Outlook for Fishery Products

**Export Outlook for Fishery Products**

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

_***Trade Balance***_
**FY 2005 deficit was $7.9 billion**
**FY 2006 deficit estimated at $8.2 billion**

- Record

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Pacific halibut and Alaska sablefish are now certified to the rigorous Marine Stewardship Council environmental standard for well-managed and sustainable fisheries

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:  Unchanged at $4.0 Billion

## Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products

**Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products**

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

_***Trade Balance***_
**FY 2005 deficit was $17.9 billion**
**FY 2006 deficit estimated at $17.7 billion**

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Exports to Canada rising on strength of hardwoods

- Revised FY 2006 Forecast:     $100 Million to $6.0 Billion