# Presentation: 048618

## The Timber Economy of the Mid-Atlantic 

**Evan Mercer**
**Southern Research Station **
**USDA Forest Service**

**Notes:**
Forest Fragmentation Conference
Alliance for the Chesapeake Bay
Annapolis, MD
November17-18, 1999

Information in this talk was derived from work done for the the EPA’s Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment.

## Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment

- EPA’s Office of Research and Development and EPA Region 3
- Multidisciplinary
- Research, monitoring, & assessment
- Objective:
- To develop high-quality scientific information on the condition of ecosystems and stressors in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region

##  to measure market & non-market benefits produced by MAIA’s forest resources
 to measure resource and land-use variables that influence production of forest benefits  
 to analyze how policies for forest conservation and management influence human welfare

-  to measure resource and land-use variables that influence production of forest benefits
-  to analyze how policies for forest conservation and management influence human welfare

-  Objectives: socio-economic	 		 assessment

## Mid-Atlantic Assessment Area

**Watersheds of ****    ****Delaware Bay                   Chesapeake Bay Albermarle-Pamlico                         ****	**** Sound **
** ****Highlands of the Appalachians**

**Notes:**
MAIA region in dark grey.  Watersheds outlined by red lines.  MAHA= Mid-Atlantic Highlands Assessment (a previous EPA project)

## MAIA Population

-  Total pop. (1990) = 35 million
-  Avg.  pop. Density = 275/sq. mile
- Highest (NJ) = 608/sq. mile
- Lowest (WV) = 75/sq. mile

## Population Change: 1970-1990

## Population: Percent Change1970-90

## How does population impact timber supply?

- Increasing population density may impact future timber supply in two ways:
- Forests are converted to urban or residential
- Reduced investments in forest management in anticipation of population growth and land use changes

## Impacts of Population on Forestry

- _Person/mile__2__	__Prob of Com. Timberland_
- 		0				82%
- 		20				75%
- 		45				50%
- 		70				25%
- 		100				10%
- 		>150			   0%

- Wear et al. 1999

**Notes:**
Information derived from:
Wear, D.W., R. Liu, J.M. Foreman, and R.M. Sheffield.  1999.  The effects of population growth on timber management and inventories in Virginia.  Forest Ecology and Management 118:107-115.

## Impacts of Population on Forestry

- Transition between rural and urban uses of forests occur between 20—70 persons/mile2
- Estimates of timberland based on purely physical measures may overstate timber supply
- Including population impacts reduced timberland and growing stock estimates by 40%

**Notes:**
Information derived from:
Wear, D.W., R. Liu, J.M. Foreman, and R.M. Sheffield.  1999.  The effects of population growth on timber management and inventories in Virginia.  Forest Ecology and Management 118:107-115.

## Population Density 1990

**Notes:**
Pop density of 6-45 (yellow): 50-80% probability of commericial forest management
Pop density of 46-100 (light green): 10-50% probability of commericial forest management
Pop density 101-150: 10-0% probability of commericial forest management
Pop density >150): 0% probability of commericial forest management

## Percentage Change in Pop. Density

## Slide 13

**Notes:**
Average annual production per decade

## Slide 14

**Notes:**
Average annual production per decade

## Slide 15

## Slide 16

## Slide 17

## Forest Products Industry Benefits in MAIA Region: 1975-1995

- 244,100 jobs/year
- $4.5 billion/year in real wages
- 2% of all wage employment & income

## Forest Industry Percent of Total Employment 1975-1995

## Wage and Salary Employment 

**SIC24 = Lumber and Wood Products ****SIC25 = Furniture and Fixtures ****SIC26 =  Paper and Allied Products**

## Slide 21

## Slide 22

## MAIA Forest Industry Real Wages & Salaries: 1975-95

## MAIA Real Wages Per Job:1975-95

## Non-Timber & Non-Market Forest Benefits

- NON-MARKET
-    Recreation
-    Biodiversity
-    Wildlife
-     Environmental Protection
-  NON-TIMBER FOREST PRODUCTS
- herbs, floral greens, mushrooms, ginseng, materials for crafts, ornamental plants, etc.

## RECREATION BENEFITS

- Delaware:  $943.5 million/year; 7.1% of employment
- Penn: $2.4 billion/year; 8.4% of employment
-  Virginia: $9.3 billion/year ($7.7 billion from out of state)
- W. VA: $2.54 billion/year

## Conclusions

- MAIA forest industry produces:
- 244,100 jobs/year;
- $4.5 billion/year in real wages;
- 2% of employment
- Economic importance of forest recreation appears to be larger than forest industry
- $9.3 billion/year in  VA
- $2.4 billion/year; 8.4% of employment in PA

## Forest Products Industry Outlook

- Forest industry growth slower than rest of MAIA economy except in:
- Delaware  (Lumber, Furniture)
- PA (lumber)
- WVA (lumber)
- If recent trends continue forest products will continue to be important source of income and employment for parts of MAIA but importance will decline relative to entire MAIA economy
- .