# Presentation: 303602

## Air Quality Forecasting at BAMS and Baron Services: 2006-2007

**John N. McHenry, Don Olerud, Jeff Vukovich, Carlie Coats, Bob Imhoff, and Ted Smith**
** **
**Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems**
**Raleigh and Candler, NC**

## Talk Outline

**Talk Outline**

** ****Introduction**
** ****Forecast Performance Examples: 2006**
** ****Ozone and Particulates (PM2.5)**
** ****Northeast**
** ****Southeast**
** ****West**
**What’s new for 2007?**
** ****Planned Improvements**
** ****Partnership with NASA**
**Summary and Conclusions**
** ****Acknowledgments**

## Introduction

**In 2006, BAMS ran the most complex and comprehensive operational Numerical Air Quality Prediction system in the world**
**Two different photochemical models**
**MAQSIP-RT (Ozone)**
**CMAQ (Ozone, PM2.5, Visibility)**
**CONUS 45KM (MAQSIP-RT, CMAQ)**
**East 15km (MAQSIP-RT, CMAQ)**
**West 15km (MAQSIP-RT)**
**Numerous 5km domains**
**TXAQS-II**

## Introduction

**State and Air Quality Agency Based Clients**
**New England**
**Mid-Atlantic**
**Southeast US**
**South Central US**
**Midwest (new)**
**Federal Agency based clients**
**Dept. of Energy (ASTEC, visibility kiosk)**
**NASA (Decisions ’05 grant; new)**
**Television**
**Wide dissemination through Baron Services (VIPIRcast)**

## Performance Examples: New England; MAQSIP-RT; Ozone

**June 18, 2006**

**15km NE Corridor window**

**Verification (Airnow)**

## Performance Examples: New England; MAQSIP-RT; Ozone

| Month | #pairs | ModAvg | ObsAvg | Bias | Error | RMSE | R2 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 200607 | 443 | 46.49 | 43.76 | 2.73 | 8.64 | 10.77 | 0.653 |

**Massachusetts, June**

## Performance Examples: New England; MAQSIP-RT; Ozone

**5km New England grid**

**Verification: Airnow**

**Code red**

## Performance Examples: New England; MAQSIP-RT; Ozone

**Summary Table for Connecticut USG (Unhealthy for sensitive groups) or Greater Exceedance Days**

| Observed Exceedances
= 13 days | 
MAQSIP-RT | 
NOAA |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Predicted Exceedances (Hits) | 11 | 7 |
| % Accuracy
(USG days) | 84.6% | 53.8% |
| False Alarm 
Days | 11 | 3 |

-           Connecticut Forecaster Conclusions (courtesy Michael Geiger):
- MAQSIP-RT had as many false positives for USG predictions, making it about 50% reliable for USG forecasts.  However, when a widespread USG event was expected, it performed well.
- The NOAA model tended to suppress the Long Island Sound plume slightly
- further south and less intense than last year, as well as under predicting many widespread events.  Different model meteorology used for this year (WRF-NMM).

## Performance Examples: SE US (July 18); MAQSIP-RT; Ozone

**US15E grid**

## Performance Examples: SE US (July 21); MAQSIP-RT; Ozone

**Alabama Window into US15E grid**

## Performance Examples: SE US July; MAQSIP-RT; Ozone

**MAQSIP-RT (Birmingham, July)**

**CMAQ (Birmingham, July)**

**Alabama: July 2006 composite performance**

| Month | #pairs | ModAvg | ObsAvg | Bias | Error | RMSE | R2 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 200607 | 716 | 58.02 | 52.04 | 5.98 | 10.28 | 13.34 | 0.457 |

## Performance Examples: California; MAQSIP-RT; Ozone

**15km MAQSIP-RT Western grid**

**Airnow Observations**

**August 18, 2006**

## Performance Examples: California; MAQSIP-RT; Ozone

**15km MAQSIP-RT Western grid**

**Airnow Observations**

**Sept 1, 2006**

## Performance Examples: California; MAQSIP-RT and CMAQ; Ozone

**Sept 12, 2006**

**CMAQ 45km windows**

**MAQSIP-RT 15km**

**MAQSIP-RT 45km**

## Performance Examples: CMAQ (Particles; October 3-6, 2006)

**Four day forecast initialized at 18z October 2nd**

**Day 1: Oct 3 (CMAQ 45KM)**

**AirNow Obs Day 1**

## Performance Examples: CMAQ (Particles; October 3-6, 2006)

**Four day forecast initialized at 18z October 2nd**

**Day 2: Oct 4 (CMAQ 45KM)**

**AirNow Obs Day 2**

## Performance Examples: CMAQ (Particles; October 3-6, 2006)

**Four day forecast initialized at 18z October 2nd**

**Day 3: Oct 5 (CMAQ 45KM)**

**AirNow Obs Day 3**

## Performance Examples: CMAQ (Particles; October 3-6, 2006)

**Four day forecast initialized at 18z October 2nd**

**Day 4: Oct 6 (CMAQ 45KM)**

**AirNow Obs Day 4**

## Performance Examples: CMAQ (Particles: Present)

**Four day forecast initialized at 18z January 14****th****, 2007**

**Day 1: Jan 15 (CMAQ 45KM)**

**AirNow Obs Day 1**

**Good fcst in PA/NY**

**Poor fcst in Pac NW**

## Planned Improvements for 2007

**Correct MM5 cold daytime temperature bias (well underway)**
**Improve coupling between updated KF2 scheme and AQ models**
**Emissions**
**Mobil 6**
**Updates to point and area sources**
**Biogenics updates**
**Close look at organic and elemental carbon inventories and other PM2.5 speciation issues especially in the west**

## NASA Decisions ’05 Grant/Partnership (Began Jan 1)

**Implementation of satellite data-assimilation for MODIS particulates using significantly improved “deep blue” retrieval scheme**
**Testing of NO****2**** data assimilation from the OMI platform**

## NASA Decisions ’05 Grant/Partnership (Began Jan 1)

**Implementation of CONUS Land-data assimilation system using the NASA LIS for improved surface soil moisture and relative humidity in driving met model (photochemistry, visibility)**
**Reconciliation of differences in LU/LC classifications between met model and biogenic emissions model**

## Summary and Conclusions

**MAQSIP-RT Ozone Forecast Performance East of the Rockies continues to be extremely good**
**Low bias; low error, high R****2**
**MAQSIP-RT Ozone forecast performance in California not as good**
**Does better in the northern Valley north of a line from San Francisco to Yosemite**
**Often underpredicts by a full color code south of that line**
**CMAQ Ozone Forecast Performance reasonable but not as good as MAQSIP-RT**
**CMAQ Particulate Forecast in East provides valuable guidance**
**Some events extremely good; trends typically quite good**
**Often magnitude of forecast PM2.5 biased low**
**CMAQ performance in west needs improvement**

## Acknowledgements

**Acknowledgements**

** ****Our many state and local agency clients who continue to support our NAQP forecasting program**
** ****The Dept of Energy for sponsoring our visibility forecasting**
** ****Baron Services for making our forecasts available to television meteorologists nationally**
** ****NASA**

## Contact Information

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