# Presentation: 057597

## 2007 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

**May 2007**
**Beth King**
- COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group
*beth.king@lmco.com*

***Cover art by John Sloan/FAA***

***2007 Summary***
***Methodology / Realization Factor***
***Trends – Mass / Transponders***
***Operator Assessment***
***Macro Economics***
***Summary***

## 2007 GSO Summary

***2007 Commercial GSO Satellite Demand Forecast Effectively The Same As 2006 Forecast***

**21.0 Average Satellite Demand**
**15.3 Average Launch Demand**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**2007**

**2008**

**2009**

**2010**

**2011**

**2012**

**2013**

**2014**

**2015**

**2016**

**Number of Satellites/Launches**

**2007 Satellite Demand Forecast**

**2007 Launch Demand Forecast**

## Report History

- Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
- Updated Annually Since 1993
- Methodology Has Been Consistent Over Time, With Ongoing Enhancements To Final Product
- 10-year Forecast Horizon (2007-2016)
- 2007 Report Presents Updates On
- Realization Factor
- Growth In Satellite Mass And Transponders Per Satellite
- Industry Developments That May Affect Demand
- Respondents’ Views On Factors Affecting Demand

## Working Group Participation

**Beth King (2007 GSO Forecast Chair)  -  Lockheed Martin**
**Dr. Alexander Liang (T&IWG Chair)  -  Aerospace Corporation**
**Darren Chambo – Lockheed Martin**
**Lisa Hague – Aerospace Corporation**
**Doug Howe / Josef Lore  -  The Boeing Company**
**John Sloan  -  FAA AST**
**Veronica Johnson / Greg Caudel – United Launch Alliance**
**David Keslow  -  Orbital Sciences Corporation**
**Debra Facktor Lepore  -  AirLaunch LLC**
**Joanna Malvino / Bill Hayes / Kathy Shockey  -  Space Systems / Loral**
**Jennifer Miceli  -  Tecolote Research / USAF/SMC/MV**
**Chris O’Connell  -  Sea Launch**
**Chris Sanders  -  Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne**

## Forecast Data Request

**GSO Satellite Launch Demand Requested For 2007-2016 From 85 Companies Worldwide **
**Comprehensive:**
**6 U.S. And 3 International Satellite Manufacturers / Launch Service Providers **
**Individual:**
**13 Demand Inputs From Satellite Operators**
**Questionnaire On Factors Affecting Market Demand**
**12 Satellite Operators Responded To Questions On How Various Factors Affected Their Plans To Procure New Satellites**

## Forecast Methodology

**Near-term (2007-2009) Mission Model**
**“****Bottoms-up” By Name**
**Timing And Likelihood Of Launches Assessed**
**Long-term (2010-2016) Demand Forecast**
**Average Of Comprehensive Domestic Forecasts By Mass Categories**
**Only “Addressable” Commercial GSO Satellites**
**Defined As Those Open For Internationally Competitive Launch Service Procurement**

## Satellite and Launch Forecast

***Reflects Increase Of Dual Launch Capacity By Ariane***

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**30**

**1993**

**1994**

**1995**

**1996**

**1997**

**1998**

**1999**

**2000**

**2001**

**2002**

**2003**

**2004**

**2005**

**2006**

**2007**

**2008**

**2009**

**2010**

**2011**

**2012**

**2013**

**2014**

**2015**

**2016**

**Number of Satellites/Launches**

**Dual Manifest Launches**

**Single Manifest Launches**

**Satellites**

**Actual**

**Long-Term **

**Demand Forecast**

**Near-**

**Term **

**Manifest**

## Historical Forecast Comparison

***2007 Forecast More Stable Than 2006***

## Satellite Launch “Realization” vs. Demand

**The COMSTAC GSO Forecast Projects Demand For Satellite Launches**
**Several Factors Can Affect The Execution Of A Scheduled Launch In A Given Year, Including:**
**Satellite Delays**
**Launch Vehicle Delays**
**Manifesting Delays**** **
**A “Realization” Factor Is Calculated Based On An Historical Analysis Of Forecast Vs Actual Satellite Launches For The**** ****First And Second Year Of The Forecast**
**This Years Model Changed Realization Factor To Last 5 Years Historical**

**Funding**
**Weather**
**Regulatory Delays**

## 2006 Actual Launches vs. Forecasted Demand

_**2006 GSO**__**	**__**Planned**__**	**__**Actual**_
- 	23	19
- Satellite	(2)
- Launch Vehicle	(1)
- Satellite / Launch Vehicle	(1)
- Schedule – Dual Manifest	(1)
- Early Launch	 1

***83% Actual vs. Forecast***
***Realization Factor Predicted 13-20 Launches***

## Forecast with Realization

**Forecast with Realization**

***Since Implementation Of The Realization Factor Actual Satellites Launched Has Fallen Within Adjusted Band***

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**30**

**35**

**1993**

**1994**

**1995**

**1996**

**1997**

**1998**

**1999**

**2000**

**2001**

**2002**

**2003**

**2004**

**2005**

**2006**

**2007**

**2008**

**2009**

**2010**

**2011**

**2012**

**2013**

**2014**

**2015**

**2016**

**Satellites    **

**Historical 1st Year Satellite**

**Demand Forecast**

**2007 Satellite Demand**

**Forecast**

**Actual Satellites Launched**

**= Expected Realization**

**Historical 1st Yr **

**Forecast**

**Long-Term Demand ****Forecast**

**Near-Term **

**Manifest**

**Actual**

## Forecast By Satellite Mass Class

***2007 Forecast Indicates Stability In Average Satellite Mass***
***Number Of Small Satellites Continues To Shrink***

**Below 2,200 kg **

**(<4,850 lbm)**

**2,200 to 4,200 kg **

**(4,850 - 9,260 lbm)**

**4,200 to 5,400 kg  **

**(9,260 - 11,900 lbm)**

**Over 5,400kg**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**30**

**1993**

**1994**

**1995**

**1996**

**1997**

**1998**

**1999**

**2000**

**2001**

**2002**

**2003**

**2004**

**2005**

**2006**

**2007**

**2008**

**2009**

**2010**

**2011**

**2012**

**2013**

**2014**

**2015**

**2016**

**Number of Satellites Launched**

**Actual**

**Long-Term **

**Demand Forecast**

**Near-Term **

**Manifest**

## Spacecraft Trends: Transponders

***Transponder Peaks With Number of Launches***

**0**

**200**

**400**

**600**

**800**

**1,000**

**1,200**

**1993**

**1994**

**1995**

**1996**

**1997**

**1998**

**1999**

**2000**

**2001**

**2002**

**2003**

**2004**

**2005**

**2006**

**2007**

**Total Number of C/Ku/Ka Transponders Launched per Year**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**60**

**Average Transponders per Satellite Launched**

**Total Number of Transponders per Year**

**Average Transponders per Satellite**

## Satellite Operator Assessment

**Significant **

**Negative **

**Impact**

**Some **

**Negative **

**Impact**

**No Effect**

**Some **

**Positive **

**Impact**

**Significant **

**Positive **

**Impact**

**Compared to 2006 **

****

** ****= more pos        **

****

** ****= more neg**

**Regional or global economic **

**conditions**

**0%**

**42%**

**33%**

**17%**

**8%**

****

**Demand for satellite services**

**0%**

**25%**

**8%**

**50%**

**17%**

**-**

**Ability to compete with **

**terrestrial services**

**0%**

**17%**

**50%**

**17%**

**17%**

****

**Availability of financing**

**8%**

**17%**

**58%**

**17%**

**0%**

****

**Availability of affordable **

**insurance**

**0%**

**33%**

**50%**

**17%**

**0%**

****

**Consolidation of service **

**providers**

**9%**

**27%**

**64%**

**0%**

**0%**

****

**Increasing satellite life times**

**0%**

**17%**

**83%**

**0%**

**0%**

**-**

**Availability of satellite systems **

**that meet your requirements**

**8%**

**8%**

**58%**

**17%**

**8%**

****

**Reliability of satellite systems**

**0%**

**27%**

**45%**

**27%**

**0%**

**-**

**Availability of launch vehicles **

**that meet your requirements**

**17%**

**42%**

**33%**

**0%**

**8%**

****

**Reliability of launch systems**

**0%**

**50%**

**33%**

**17%**

**0%**

****

**Ability to obtain required ****export **

**licenses**

**17%**

**42%**

**42%**

**0%**

**0%**

****

**Ability to obtain required **

**operating licenses**

**0%**

**8%**

**83%**

**0%**

**8%**

****

**Legend**

**Large #  positive**

**Large #  negative**

**Slightly positive or negative**

## Satellite Operator Assessment - Macro Economics

**Availability / Reliability of Launch Vehicles**
**Sea Launch Failure – Full Manifests**
**Economic Conditions**
**Continue To Improve, Caution For Potential Financial Bubble**
**U.S. Government Regulatory Environment**
**Continues to drive foreign operators away from U.S. providers**
**New Commercial Competitors In Launch Market**
**Land Launch, Soyuz From French Guiana, Japan and India Launch Vehicles**
**Rollout Of New Services**
**Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), Ancillary Terrestrial Component (ATC)**

**42%**

**42%**

**50%**

## Summary of Findings

**GSO Demand Forecast**
**Average Annual Satellite Launch Demand Of 21.0 Per Year**
**2007 Demand For 23, Between 15 And 19 Realization**
**Continued Trend Towards Heavier Satellites, Decrease In Demand Of <2,200 Kg Satellites**
**Availability And Reliability Of Launch Vehicles, And Export Licensing, Are Largest Business Factors**
**New Broadband Services May Spur Growth In Demand In Coming Years **
**HDTV**
**DAR**
**ATC**
**MSS**