# Presentation: 917655

## Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets

**Energy Information Administration**

**Energy Security Group**
**November 29, 2006**
**Washington, DC**

***Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets***

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2005 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2030

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**100**

**131**

- History

- Projections

**AEO2007 P**

**AEO2006**

**135**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu)**

**30%**

**32%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030

**U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

- History

- Projections

**Liquid Fuels**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,

**U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,**
**2005 and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption by Sector,

**2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (millions of barrels per day)**

**2010**

**2020**

**20.7**

**22.2**

**21.6**

**24.8**

**27.6**

**Transportation**

**Residential and**
**Commercial**

**Industrial**

**Electric Power**

**2030**

**24.0**

**26.9**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,**
**1960-2030 (million barrels per day)**

**Consumption**

**Domestic Supply**

**Net Imports**** **

**60%**

**61%**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Crude Oil  Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Lower 48 Onshore**

**Alaska**

**Deepwater Offshore**

- Projections

- History

**Total**

**Shallow Water Offshore**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Ethanol Production, 1981-2030

**(billion gallons)**

- Projections

- History

**AEO2007 P**

**AEO2006**

**Corn Ethanol**

**Cellulosic Ethanol**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## Share of World Oil Reserves, 2005

**Middle East**

**Western Hemisphere**

**Europe/FSU**

**Asia & Oceania**

**Africa**

## Top World Oil-Producing Regions, 2005(million barrels per day)

## Global Proved Oil Reserves Ownership

**Global Proved Oil Reserves Ownership**

**(1.1 trillion barrels)**

**Middle East NOCs**

**69.6%**

**Africa NOCs**

**6.6%**

**Russia NOCs**

**6.8%**

**Latin America NOCs**

**9.8%**

**Europe**** NOCs**

**1.0%**

**Exxon/Mobil**

**1.0%**

**Asia NOCs**

**2.1%**

**BP**

**0.9%**

**Chevron**

**0.9%**

**Shell**

**0.5%**

**ConocoPhillips**

**0.6%**

**Investor owned oil **

**reserves: ~ 4% of total**

- National Commission on Energy Policy

## National Oil Companies, Mostly in the Middle East,  Control 75 Percent of World Oil Reserves

**Asia**

**Africa**

**Asia**

**Eurasia**

**Africa**

**Middle East**

** **

**W. Hemisphere**

**Eurasia**

**Middle East**

**W.**** **

**Hemisphere**

**Privately**
**Owned (327 billion barrels)**

**National**
**Oil**
**Companies**
**(966 billion barrels)**

- Oil and Gas Journal; Reuters

## U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030

**U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030**
**(2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector,

**2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**2010**

**2020**

**22.0**

**23.4**

**26.9**

**Transportation**

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Industrial**

**Electric Power**

**2030**

**26.9**

**5.8**

**7.7**

**3.1**

**4.8**

**5.5**

**8.9**

**3.1**

**5.2**

**7.5**

**6.4**

**9.5**

**10.0**

**3.6**

**4.0**

**5.5**

**5.6**

**24.0**

**6.4**

**8.7**

**3.2**

**5.0**

**26.3**

**7.2**

**9.2**

**3.8**

**5.3**

**26.1**

**5.9**

**9.8**

**4.2**

**5.3**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**16%**

**21%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007* - Preliminary

## U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(trillion cubic feet)**

**Alaska**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore**

**Lower 48 Associated-Dissolved**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply,

**2006-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**Growth in Alaskan Production**

**Growth in**
**Non-Associated**
**Unconventional**

**Growth in LNG Imports**

**Base Production (all sources)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Unconventional Natural Gas Production, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

**Tight Sands**

**Coalbed Methane**

**Gas Shales**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

**Overseas LNG**

**Mexico**

**Canada**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 *- Preliminary

## Share of World Natural Gas Reserves, 2006

**Middle East**

**Africa**

**Asia & Oceania**

**Europe/FSU**

**Western Hemisphere**

## Top Natural Gas-Producing Regions, 2005(trillion cubic feet)

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2007*****, reference case December 5****th****, report February 2006**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2006*****, June 2006**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**