# Presentation: 400190

## Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions & the Portland RegionApril 2008

## Presentation Overview

-  Metro Area Primer
-  Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in Oregon
-  Integrating GHG into Planning

## Portland and Vicinity

## What is Metro?

- Growth Management

## Land Use Responsibility

## Multi-Modal Transportation System

**Street Design Classification**

**Motor Vehicle System**

**Public Transportation**

**Pedestrian System**

**Bicycle System**

**Freight System**

## Presentation Overview

-  Metro Area Primer
-  Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in Oregon
-  Integrating GHG into Planning

## Climate Change Effects in Portland

- Potential Climate Change Impacts to Portland

- More rain in winter, less in spring and summer could mean:
-  More winter flooding
-  Further harm to salmon
-  More water demand in spring and summer
-  Greater wildfire threat

## Oregon GHG Sources

- Source: The Governor’s Climate Change Integration Group: Final Report  January 2008

## Most Efficient Vehicle

- Energy (in calories) used per passenger mile
-       bicycle - 35 		     auto - 1,860
- Source: Worldwatch Institute

## GHG Emission Rates

## Motor Vehicle Speed 

## Energy Use – Motor Vehicles and Transit in PDX

- Source: Metro, DEA Associates, 2008 Portland Milwaukie LRT SDEIS

## Transit System Coverage

## Oregon Energy Sources

- 2005 Oregon Electricity Supply Mix

- Source: The Governor’s Climate Change Integration Group: Final Report  January 2008

## Federal Transportation Funding Ideas

- “Green Tea” could include:
-  GHG Reduction Goals.
-  Funding tied to GHG performance.
-  Require alternative transportation and land use scenario analysis in TIPS and long range plans.
-  More support for research and planning.

## Oregon GHG Goals

- Arrest emissions by 2010
- Reduce to 10% below 1990 levels by 2020
- Reduce to 75% below 1990 levels by 2050

## State Forecasts

- Source: The Governor’s Climate Change Integration Group: Final Report  January 2008

## Presentation Overview

-  Metro Area Primer
-  Greenhouse Gases (GHG) in Oregon
-  Integrating GHG into Planning

## Metro Transportation Forecasts

## The Trouble with Forecasts

- Vehicle speed not taken into consideration - up to a 60% error in calculating GHG.
- Doesn’t consider
- New Federal CAFÉ standards.
- Oregon Low Emission Vehicle standards.

## What Can be Done?

- Use MOVES – next generation EPA designed air quality model.
- Peer review.

## Urban Transportation Energy

- Source: Peter Newman 2008

## Land Use & Energy

- High density residents can use up to 2 times less energy than low density residents

- Source:  Journal of Urban Planning and Development, Norman, March 2006

## Land Use – Density Matters

- Comparing annual total low and high density residential can be as much as 2.5 times different.

- Source:  Journal of Urban Planning and Development, Norman, March 2006

## Land Use Market

- Source: Reid Ewing and APA, 2007

## Metro Greatest Places - Choices

- Four Tracks:
- Investments
- Urban and rural reserves
- Performance based growth management
- Transportation

## Metro Council Decision

## Mark Turpel, AICP

**Mark Turpel**, AICP
- Metro
- 600 NE Grand Avenue, Portland, OR
- Turpelm@metro.dst.or.us