# Presentation: 924387

## 2005 SSG-WI Economic Transmission Expansion Planning Study

**2005 SSG-WI Economic Transmission Expansion Planning Study**
** **
**Coordination with other**
**Sub-regional Planning Groups**
**SWAT/Denver Aug23**
**Peter Krzykos**

## 2005 SSG-WI Transmission Study

- 2005 SSG-WI Study is assessing Transmission needs to support “Most Likely” Future Generation Scenarios
- As described in SSG-WI Planning Process, SSG-WI coordinates with the Sub-regional Planning Groups (e.g. SWAT, NTAC,RMATS,CCPG, STEP) through exchanges of information

- AUG23, 2005

## 2005 SSG-WI Transmission Study

- Modeling Effort being conducted under Technical Support Group through 4 Subgroups:
- Modeling (Lead=Mike DeWolf)
- Transmission (Lead=Jeff Miller)
- Generation (Lead=Mary Johannis)
- Load Forecasting (Lead=Donald Davies)

- AUG23, 2005

## SSG-WI Modeling Roles

**Load Forecasting**
** ****Sub-Group**

**Facilitator role:  the “glue that binds us together”**

**Generation Sub-Group**

**Transmission **
**Sub-Group**

**Modeling Team**

**   ****Topology**
**   ****Transmission path ratings & nomograms**
**   ****Transmission solutions to relieve congestion**
**   ****Validate modeling**
**   ****Presentations & report**

**  ****Topology**
**  ****Load forecast (2008)**
**  ****Load growth (2015)**
**  ****Load mapping to the bus level**

**  ****Planning margin**
**  ****Resources & resource attributes**
**  ****Fuel prices**
**  ****Emissions**
**  ****Validate modeling**
**  ****Presentations & report**

**Determine:**
**   ****Congestion and congestion costs**
**   ****Economic implications of alts**
**   ****Validate modeling**
**   ****Presentations & report**

**TSG and PWG approve key assumptions, scenarios and modeling results**

**SSG-WI Modeling Roles**

- AUG23, 2005

## Coordination with Sub-regional Planning Groups

- Coordination with Sub-regional Planning Groups through liaisons:
- SWAT – **Peter Krzykos**
- STEP – **Bob Smith**
- NTAC – **M Landauer**
- RMATS – **Ray Brush & Jim Tucker**
- CCPG – **John Collins**

- AUG23, 2005

## Coordination with SWAT2015 Scenarios

- Assistance in defining “most likely” 2015 scenarios
- Check generation attributes for new thermal power plants
- Check assumptions on new wind, other renewable
- Check that outcomes of SSG-WI studies consistent with SWAT studies where similar transmission and generation assumptions made

- AUG23, 2005

## SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

**“****Do Nothing” case**
** ****- Loads will be extrapolated to 2015   **
**   ****levels**
** ****- No resources or transmission **
**   ****additions beyond 2008 case**
** ****- Determine production costs by **
**   ****area and congestion costs by area**

- AUG23, 2005

## SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

**  “****Planned Resource Scenario" case**
** ****The “Planned Resource Scenario” is intended to model those resources and associated transmission additions required to meet projected 2015 load within a region.**

- AUG23, 2005

## SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

**  “****Planned Resource Scenario" case**
** ****Resource additions intended primarily for export to other regions should not be included.  Evaluation of such resource plans should be the objective of other resource scenario studies.**

- AUG23, 2005

## SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

**  “****Planned Resource Scenario" case**
** ** **It is not the purpose of the “Planned Resource Scenario” case to evaluate competing resource plans.**

- AUG23, 2005

## SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

**  “****Planned Resource Scenario" case**
** ** **The sources of information for the “Planned Resource Scenario” are primarily publicly available utility resource plans and/or state/provincial agency resource studies. **

- AUG23, 2005

## SSG-WI 2015 Case Preparation Process and Schedule

**  “****Planned Resource Scenario" case**
** **  A load resource balance will be performed. Resources in addition to those identified above may need to be added in areas where the **planning margin is insufficient**.  The Subregional Planning Groups will identify for the SSG-WI Generation Subgroup, which additional resources to include to meet load and planning margin.

- AUG23, 2005

## NEW MEXICO

**New Generation or Retired Generation--2008-2015****	**
**State****	****Area Name****	****New Plant or Plant being Retired     Bus Name****	**
- NM	New Mexi	Purchase/Retire-Renovate 	AFTONG
- NM	New Mexi	New/Renovated		AFTONG
- NM	New Mexi	Purchase/Existing Merchant	BLACKWTR
- NM	New Mexi	Retire-Renovated	                     REEVE_G1 &
- NM	New Mexi	New/Renovated		REEVE_G2
- NM	New Mexi	Retire		                    LVGT
- NM	New Mexi	New		                  YORKCANY
- NM	New Mexi	New		                  VERANDAT
- NM	New Mexi	New		                  SHIPROCK
- NM	New Mexi	New	                                       VERANDAT
- NM	New Mexi	New		                  BELEN_PG

- AUG23, 2005

## NEVADA

**New Generation or Retired Generation--2008-2015****	**
**State****	****Area Name****	****New Plant or Plant being Retired  Bus Name **
- NV	Nevada	New				Chuck Lenzie N   NV      NV	Nevada	New		                                Harry Allen Unit 4
- NV	Nevada	Existing				Silver Hawk
- NV	Nevada	New				Generic-Coal
- NV	Nevada	New				Generic-Gas SCCT
- NV	Nevada	New				Generic-Gas CCT
- NV	Nevada	New				Generic-Gas SCCT
- NV	Nevada	New		Air Conditioning Load Mgt (ACLM)

- AUG23, 2005

## SIERRA

**New Generation or Retired Generation--2008-2015****	**
**State Name    New Plant or Plant being Retired   **
- NV	Sierra	  New  		              Tracy Facility Additions
- NV	Sierra	 New				TS Power Plant
- NV	Sierra  	New				White Pine Project

- AUG23, 2005

## COLORADO

**New Generation or Retired Generation--2008-2015****	**
**State Area   New Plant or Plant being Retired     ****	**
- CO	COL EAST	New                COMANCHE III
- CO	COL EAST	New   		Wind Projects 2005

- AUG23, 2005

## ARIZONA 

**New Generation or Retired Generation--2008-2015****	**
** ****State Area   New Plant or Being Retired **
** **AZ                 New               Desert Rock Energy** **
-  AZ                 New               Springerville ,4
-  AZ                 New           Gila Bend Power Project
-  AZ                 New               Bowie Power Station
-  AZ                 New               Wellton-Mohawk
- Renewable Energy Projects
- AZ                  New              Sunshine Wind Park
- AZ                  New              Dolan Springs Wind

- AUG23, 2005

## Transmission Additions

- Add transmission required to integrate the incremental resource additions that will be represented in the “Planned Resource Scenario”.
- Do not add new interregional transmission required to increase export/import capability.  The identification of such additional interregional transmission will be the subject of congestion studies using the 2015 case.

- AUG23, 2005

## Transmission Additions

**Transmission Facility Additions / Assumptions**
**SSG-WI 2008 and 2015 Base Cases**
- December 15, 2004 TSG Meeting
_**Line       **_                                                       _**2008 Case**_                      _**2015 Case**_
- McNary – John Day     No                                        No
- Navajo – Dineh Phase 1 (do a sensitivity)	No	                  No
- Navajo – Dineh Phase 2 (do a sensitivity)	No                               No
- Kingman Wind Project                          	                 No                                No
- (Will add back in if Gen Subroup includes Kingman wind generation)
- Eastern Mexico Tie                                 	No 	                 No
- Palo Verde – Devers #2                           	No	                 No
- Tehachapi Wind transmission                  	1 line	             2 lines
- Canada – CA (do a sensitivity)                                   No	                 No
- Pinal Project                                            	No	                Yes
- North Phoenix (Raceway)                        	Yes	                Yes
- RMATS (do a sensitivity)                        	No	                No
- Amps Phase Shifter                                	Yes	               Yes
- New 500 kV line to San Diego                    	No	                No

- AUG23, 2005

## Transmission Additions

_**Phase Shifter Modeling**_
- Bypass Perkins – Crystal
- Five phase shifters on NE – SE islanding
- Nelway in service
_**Nomograms**_
- Add Southern New Mexico nomogram
_**Criteria for Line Additions**_
- Use conservative transmission assumptions in the base cases, with minimal additions.  Add only committed Projects.  Purpose of base case is to expose transmission problems, not intended to express doubt about any project’s benefits.  For 2008 case, must be permitted and under construction.

- AUG23, 2005

## SCHEDULE

- Comments and changes sent to ;
-  Johannis,Mary H - R [mhjohannis@bpa.gov]
-      **by Aug.26.2005**
- Sept 16,2005  - Initial run/congestion
-     studies/identify transmission requirements
-  Sept 28.2005 Rerun studies to optimize
-     regional transmission to relieve congestion
- Determine sensitivities /extra runs ?/$$

- AUG23, 2005