# Presentation: 497469

## Experimental Global Tropics 

- _Hazards/Benefits Assessment__ __ _

- Update prepared by:
- Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
-    February 11, 2008

## Week 1 Outlook – Valid: February 12 -18, 2008 

_**Please note**_**:** Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.

_**1. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for parts of northeast Brazil.**_** **The suppressed phase of the MJO is expected to suppress rainfall across this region during the period especially early. **Confidence: Moderate**
_**2. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for areas across continental South Africa.**_** **The suppressed phase of the MJO and anomalously strong high pressure are expected to suppress rainfall across this region during the period. Numerical weather forecast guidance further supports suppressed rainfall in this region. **Confidence: Moderate**
_**3. Tropical Cyclone Ivan**_** **will impact the waters of the western Indian Ocean with areas of heavy rain, very strong winds, and high seas. Ivan is expected to approach Madagascar later during the period and impact the eastern coast of the island.
_**4. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern areas of Madagascar and waters to the east-northeast.**_** **The close proximity and slow movement of Tropical Cyclone Ivan is expected to produce enhanced rainfall in this area. **Confidence: High**
_**5. Favorable conditions exist for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern Indian Ocean and waters north of Australia.**_ The enhanced phase of the MJO and La Nina are expected to contribute to active convection in this region and will result in a greater chance for low-level westerly flow, upper-level divergence, and other factors favorable for tropical development. Sea surface temperatures are above average and numerical weather forecast guidance and statistical tropical cyclone development tools favor further genesis in this region. **Confidence: High**
_**6. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the Maritime continent, northern Australia, and the western Pacific Ocean**__**.**_** **The enhanced phase of the MJO and the ongoing La Nina are expected to support a favorable large-scale environment for convection and rainfall.** **Above-average sea surface temperatures in some areas will also contribute to enhanced rainfall. **Confidence: High**

- Issued: 2/11

## Week 2 Outlook – Valid: February 19 – 25, 2008

_**Please note**_**:** Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.

- Issued: 2/11

_**1. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the equatorial Indian Ocean and extreme western Indonesia.**_** **The suppressed phase of the MJO is expected to suppress rainfall across this region during the period. **Confidence: Moderate**
_**2. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Maritime continent, northern Australia, and the western Pacific Ocean south of the equator**__**.**_** **The enhanced phase of the MJO and the ongoing La Nina are expected to support a favorable large-scale environment for convection and rainfall.** **Above-average sea surface temperatures in some areas will also contribute to enhanced rainfall. **Confidence: High**
_**3. Favorable conditions exist for tropical cyclogenesis for the waters north and northeast of Australia.**_ The enhanced phase of the MJO and La Nina are expected to contribute to active convection in this region and will result in a greater chance for low-level westerly flow, upper-level divergence, and other factors favorable for tropical development. Sea surface temperatures are above average and statistical tropical cyclone development tools favor genesis in this region.       **Confidence: High**