# Presentation: 536911

## Grand Challenges in Modeling, Observations, and Information Systems

- Jack A. Kaye
- Director, Research Division
- NASA Office of Earth Science
- Presented to CCSP Breakout Session
- December 4, 2002

## Overview of Breakout Session

- Purpose of “Grand Challenges in Modeling, Observations, and Information Systems” Breakout Session
- Present overview of Chapter 12 in draft Plan
- Opportunity for prepared comments by invited reviewers of the draft Plan
- Opportunity for verbal questions, comments, and discussion from workshop attendees
- IMPORTANT Reminder: To be effective in improving the Strategic Plan, comments should be submitted electronically according to instructions on the website (_[www.](http://www.climatescience.gov/)__[climatescience](http://www.climatescience.gov/)__[.](http://www.climatescience.gov/)__[gov](http://www.climatescience.gov/)_; follow links to Strategic Plan)

## Why Modeling, Observations, and Information Systems?

- These are critical building blocks for advancing the state of climate science
- Systems need to be able to support a variety of purposes and users ranging from basic science to decision support
- Challenge is to set priorities to guide coordinated, multi-agency investment strategy that minimizes gaps, avoids duplication, and enhances efficiency of user communities

## From Science to Decision Support

***Value & benefits to citizens and society***

***Applying NASA’s system engineering approach and ESE results ***
***to support decision-making tools, predictions, and analysis***
***for  policy and management decisions.***

**Data**

**Policy **
**Decisions**
**Management**
**Decisions**

**Predictions**

**Data Products**

***High Performance Computing,***
***Communication,  & Visualization***

**Decision**
**Support**
_**Tools**_

** ****Assessments**
** ****Decision**
**    ****Support**
**       ****Systems**

**Measurements & **_**Monitoring**_

**-****	****Satellite**
**-****	****Airborne**
**-****	****Ground**

**Science Models &**_** Data Assimilation**_

**-****	****Oceans****	****- Ice**
**-****	****Land****	****- Coupled**
**-****	****Atmosphere**

**Observations**

**Info. Products**

**Notes:**
As you can see, these assessments fall under Decision Support. Mission and Model outputs become the inputs for the assessments which then lead to informative decisions made by policy and decision makers.

## Observations

- Global Change Act of 1990 specifically called for global observations to understand Earth system and document global change
- Many critical observational programs were not “part of USGCRP” and did not report through it, or budgets count in cross-cut
- Major emphasis went into creation of satellite system, with unprecedented global data now available and “first series” near completion
- Time series: ex., decadal observations of ocean surface height
- New uses: operational use of ocean surface wind observations
- New parameters: improved global aerosol observations
- Had advances in surface networks and development of new technologies for surface measurements

## Multiple Satellite Observations Provide Global Perspectives

**Aqua**

**Terra**

**TRMM**

**SORCE**

**SeaWiFS**

**Aura**

**Meteor/**
**SAGE**

**GRACE**

**ICESat**

**Cloudsat**

**Jason**

**CALIPSO**

**GIFTS**

**TOPEX**

**Landsat**

**NOAA/POES**

## Observations: Challenges in Next Decade

- Complete development of space-based and *in situ* global climate and ocean observing systems
- Maintain quality through calibration focus
- Transition observations from research to operations
- Maintain and improve current ground-based observing systems needed for climate observations, and expand to meet needs for new variables
- Integrate surface and space-based measurements into comprehensive system
- Add new measurements to global suite of parameters observed from space
- Improve surface-based and *in situ* measurement technology for use in process study and satellite validation

## Transition from Research to Operations

**Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center**

**NWS**

**Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation**

**NCEP**

**Observation**

**Technology**

**Modeling**

- NASA & NOAA jointly funding NRC studies on improving transition

**Under Study or Formulation**

**In operation**

**Under Development**

**ACRIMsat **

**SORCE **

**SIGF**

**NPOESS**

**SAGE III **

**AURA **

**NPOESS**

**Jason **

**OSTM **

**NPOESS/partners**

**Landsat 7 **

**LDCM **

**Commercial (USGS)**

**Imaging and Sounding**

**Solar Irradiance, Ozone, and Aerosols**

**Ocean Surface Topography**

**Land Cover/Land Use Change**

## Observations: Implementation Challenges

- Observing systems and networks must be implemented to allow flexibility as requirements and technology evolve
- Periodic reassessment of requirements and priorities must be made as CCSP plan is executed based on recognized prioritization criteria:
- Scientific Return
- Benefit to Society
- Mandated Programs
- Partnership Opportunities
- Technology Readiness
- Program Balance
- Planning for transition from research to operational systems (esp. NPOESS) is a very important consideration
- US planning must be done in context of international planning while US leads in development of integrated system

## Observations: The Road Forward

- Stabilize existing observational capabilities.
- Maintain existing networks
- Provide global observations for parameters now available regionally.
- Identify and implement critical measurement improvements.
- Address major deficiencies
- Where possible, integrate new capabilities into existing networks
- Incorporate climate and global change observing requirements in operational programs at the appropriate level.
- Continue intensive field missions to mutually address process study and satellite calibration/validation.
- Continue a vigorous program in data reanalysis to ensure the time consistency and spatial homogeneity of global change data sets.

## Modeling

- NRC reports (1999, 2001) make several points
- US has recognized leadership in basic climate science research
- US has shortcomings in integrating basic climate research into a comprehensive climate modeling capability
- Software, hardware, human resource, and management issues exist for routinely producing comprehensive climate modeling products
- A need exists in the US for a dedicated capability for comprehensive climate modeling activities

## Modeling

- In next decade need for modeling systems to
- Go beyond physical climate system to include complex and interrelated nature of biogeochemical  processes
- Provide predictions at regional scales
- Have adequate computing, software, and physics for models at necessary resolution and needed complexity
- Must be able to produce results on demand
- Maintain balance between product-driven modeling and discovery-driven research
- So, evolve to two complementary climate modeling activities
- Research: “product driven” available to broader community for model development, computational science, and data assimilation
- Prediction: “quasi-operational” charged with producing, on demand, required modeling products for policy analysis and assessment.
- Should employ a common modeling framework and be accompanied by investments in computing hardware, software, algorithms, tools, etc..

## Data Management

- Currently US programs make enormous amounts of data available, but challenge for future is to:
- Facilitate use by diverse user community working in interdisciplinary areas
- Disciplinary background
- Research/applications spectrum
- Computational Resources
- Assure that heterogeneous systems based on standard protocols, metadata, etc., support community through distributed architecture
- Provide long-term active stewardship for data in the face of rapidly evolving computational infrastructure and constrained organizational resources
- Recognize need to combine, relate, and integrate data from multiple sources - both sequentially and technique-wise

## Data Management - Needs and Priorities

- CCSP Priorities
- Expand current data management infrastructure
- Encompass existing federal data centers
- Incorporate needed socioeconomic data
- Include partnerships with other entities to provide needed data
- Emphasize need for multi-disciplinary and multi-party solutions
- Identify requirements for effective use of archived data
- Provide active stewardship for historical data