# Presentation: 212690

## Patrick J. Sullivan, P.E.
Federal Aviation Administration
202-267-3707
patrick.sullivan@faa.gov

**Federal Aviation Administration**
**202-267-3707**
**patrick.sullivan@faa.gov**

- ADVISORY CIRCULAR UPDATE-NORTHWEST MOUNTAIN AIRPORT CONFERENCE APRIL 2005

## Introduction

- NPIAS Report to Congress
- Airport System Planning Process AC 150/5070-7
- Airport Master Plan AC 150/5070-6
- Environmental Considerations in Airport Planning
- Planning Airports for Business Jet Use
- Aviation Forecasting
- Other Planning Efforts

## NPIAS Report to Congress

- Report published October 2004
- Reports for 5-year period FY 2005-FY 2009
- Contains AIP-eligible development considered necessary to provide safe, efficient and integrated airport system. Ineligible projects not included.
- Development derived from locally prepared and approved airport master plans and regional and state aviation system plans
- Total 5-yr development need (NPIAS)  decreased by 15% from last report ($46.2 B to $39.5B)

## NPIAS Report to Congress

- Decrease in development cost for hub airports due to deferred projects (reduced airline revenue and passengers) and use of PFC for large projects
- Increase in development cost for GA, reliever and CS reflect focus, largely because of NPE money, on identifying development at these airports
- Report contains airport location map for each state, development cost by airport, and condition and performance report
- _[http://www.faa.gov/arp/planning/npias/](http://www.faa.gov/arp/planning/npias/)_
- Contact: Sharon Glasgow 202-267-8739

## Comparison of Development(2005 vs 2001)

## NPIAS System Performance

- Safety-aviation system remains safest in the world
- AIP funds have been targeted to enhance safety and reduce accidents, fatalities and incursions
- Capacity- demand for air travel recovering
- New runways produce largest capacity increases.  Eight  new runways opened the last six years.  Seven new runways scheduled to open next four years.
- Surface Accessibility-Good
- 98% of population lives within 20 miles NPIAS airport
- Private auto still primary mode of ground access

## NPIAS System Performance

- Noise- substantial improvement
- In 1976, estimated 6 to 7 M residents near airports exposed to significant aircraft noise levels.  Today that number is approximately 500,000.
- Runway pavement- adequate and safe
- 96% of R/W at NPIAS airports in good/fair condition
- Financial performance airport finances impacted by downturn in traffic
- No major airport has defaulted on bonds
- Most large hubs continue to operate profitably

## Airport System Planning Process

- Advisory Circular 150/5070-7
- Published November 2004
- Features of AC
- Emphasis on process rather than plan
- Responds to changes in aviation technology and airline market characteristics
- Defines process and elements in accordance with AIP eligibility criteria
- Provides useful reference materials and checklists

## Airport System Planning Process 

- Philosophy of Airport System Planning
- Establish and preserve a viable, balanced and integrated airport system
- Evaluate the performance of the system
- Plan for cost effective development to meet demand
- Incorporate aviation into comprehensive transportation plan of the region/state
- Inform aviation community, local government and general public about pertinent aviation issues
- Plan in a way consistent with agency’s authority and resources

## Airport System Planning Process

- Features imbedded in AC 150/5070-7
- Roles of FAA, State Aviation Agencies and Metro/Regional Planners in Airport Planning
- System planning relationship with master planning
- System planning relationship with ACIP & NPIAS
- AIP eligibility of innovative planning techniques
- Multi-state aviation planning

## Airport System Planning Process

- _[http://www.faa.gov/arp/publications/acs/AC5070-7Final10Nov04.pdf](http://www.faa.gov/arp/publications/acs/AC5070-7Final10Nov04.pdf)_
- Contact: Lori Lehnerd 202-493-5004

## Airport Master Plan AC

- Replaces AC 150/5070-6A (dated June 1985)
- Significant revisions to the existing AC in areas of aviation forecasting, environmental, financial planning, public involvement
- Greater emphasis on pre-planning
- Partnership between the airport sponsor and FAA
- Tailor master plan to specific airport issues
- Purpose oriented planning- what problem are we solving?
- Establish goals and objectives
- Full master plan vs. update vs. special studies
- Who needs to be involved?

## Airport Master Plan AC

- Includes as an appendix
- Environmental Considerations in Airport Master Plan
- Best Practice- Planning of Airports for Business Jet Use AC Status
- AC Status
- End of April release draft AC for industry comment
- Early summer- publish final AC
- FAA Contact: Stave Urlass 202-267-7103

## Environmental Considerations in Airport Master Planning (Pat S.)

- Draft final- included as appendix to MP AC
- Mainly for complex/controversial projects
- Permit more efficient planning & environmental process so that projects occur earlier
- Includes:
- Timing of planning and environmental
- FAA Role in Airport Master Planning
- EIS Conceptual Engineering
- Facility Requirements/Purpose and Need
- Planning and NEPA alternative analysis
- Tools- planning teams, environmental overviews

## Planning Airports for Business Jet Use

- The “FAA Aerospace Forecasts-FY 2004-2015” document shows an 85% growth in the GA turbojet fleet 2002-2015
- What does this mean for airports?
- 3000’ foot runways may be attractive to VSJ
- Increased demand for hangars, new approaches, ground services
- More attention to field maintenance
- Increased public sensitivity to airports
- In cases, changes in airport design standards

## Best Practice: Planning Airports for Business  Jet Use 

- Included as Appendix to Airport Master Plan AC
- The guidance features:
- Updated listing of business jet characteristics (ARC)
- Listing of items that should be considered in planning airports for business jet use
- Process to follow when planning for instrument approach procedures at an airport
- FAA Contact:  Patrick Sullivan, 202-267-3707

**Notes:**
Work with DOD, EPA, TSA, 

## FAA Forecast Guidance

-  Documents that contain FAA guidance on aviation forecasting:
- AC 150/5070-7, “The Airport System Planning Process” – paragraph 506
- AC 150/5070-6A, “Airport Master Plans” Chapter 5- AC currently being revised
- FAA Order 5090.3C, “Field Formulation of the NPIAS”- Sections 2-7 and 3-2
- FAA Order 5100.38B, “AIP Handbook” Section 428a
- Report “Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport”
- FAA Memo “Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts” dated December 23, 2004

## Report: Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport

-  Prepared by GRA Incorporated for the FAA Office of Aviation Policy and Plans (APO)
- Document can be found at: _[http://api.hq.faa.gov/apo_home.asp](http://api.hq.faa.gov/apo_home.asp)__.  Select APO Publications, then “Industry Trend Analysis” _
-  Features of the document:
- Steps in developing a forecast
- Data sources for the various activity parameters
- Description of acceptable forecast methods and applicability
- Template for developing forecasts of activity- Appendix B
- Template for comparing forecasts- Appendix C

## Local Forecast of Aviation Activity (i.e. sponsor forecast)  

- Airport sponsor may prepare an independent local forecast or use the FAA Terminal Area Forecast
- If TAF is used, the sponsor and its consultant need to be aware of the underlying assumptions and the methods used by FAA to develop the TAF
- It is important that up-to-date baseline of current activity be available from which to develop the local forecast

## Review and Approval of Aviation Forecasts

- Internal memo dated December 23, 2004
- Memo contents:
- FAA review process for local aviation forecasts
- Forecast approval and consistency criteria
- Guidance on short-term forecasting
- Consistency of local forecasts with the TAF expanded to 15% for 10-year forecast period (retains 10% for 5-year forecast period)
- FAA Contact: Lori Lehnerd 202-493-5004

## Aviation Forecast Q and A

- Questions/Issues:
- More frequent updates of aviation activity and enplanements are needed to understand current state of airline recovery.
- How does FAA forecast cargo operations and tonnage?
- Why does the TAF show no growth for some airports?
- How does the TAF account for short-term loss of an airline at an otherwise healthy primary airport?
- What input is APO looking for to justify a change to a draft TAF?
- How do you forecast and plan for airports with declining scheduled service?

## Aviation Forecast Q and A

- Questions/Issues:
- How should one distinguish between an air carrier operation and a regional operation when smaller jets (i.e. 60 passengers) are involved?
- Why are APO forecasts unconstrained?
- What documentation is necessary to show an upward trend in operations absent actual operations?

## Other Planning Efforts

- Runway Length AC- George Legarreta 202-267-8766
- Spaceports/Commercial Space Operations- Pat Sullivan 202-267-3707
- FACT Study –  _[http://www.faa.gov/arp/publications](http://www.faa.gov/arp/publications)__  under “Capacity Needs National Airport System”_
- Joint Planning Development Office (JPDO)
- Inter-modal Planning and Funding
- Financing- Barry Molar 202-267-8827
- Planning- Patrick Sullivan 202-267-3707