# Presentation: 316945

## Southern California Wildfires 

**Joseph Cassmassi**
** ****South Coast Air Quality Management District**
**Outreach Track:  Communications and Air Pollution Emergencies**
**February 24, 2004**

## Nero fiddled while Rome burned!

**Between October 21****rd**** and October 31****st**** 2003 nearly 750,000 acres of Southern California burned.**
**Nearly 18 million people were exposed to dangerous levels of fine particulates.**
***Don’t blame the SCAQMD for not being musical.***

## Communicating During a Wildfire Emergency

- Historical perspective of wildfires and smoke impacts in Southern California
- Reporting conflicting data
- Impacts of the health message
- Dealing with the media
- The firestorm as viewed through the data
- Learning from our mistakes

## Wildfires: Historical Perspective

- Majority of wildfires occur during Santa Ana “high wind” conditions in the fall
- Burn corridors well established
- Near burn fumigation occurs but the main smoke impact from the elevated plume is offshore
- Occasionally burns will fumigate the basin through sea breeze recirculation

## Primary Burn Areas

- Malibu

- Laguna

- Santa Susanna

- San Gabriel

- San Bernardino

- San Jacinto

- Cleveland

- Los Padres

- Santa Barbara

## Santa Ana Wind Flow

- Cajon Pass

- San Fernando  Pass

- San Marcos Pass

## Smoke Transport

- Off Shore Impact

## Sea Breeze Fumigation 

- San Gabriel Canyon

- Urban Impact

## October 2003 Wildfire

- The burns started during a weak sea breeze (21st and 24th)
- Conditions intensified under Santa Ana high winds (25th through 27th)
- Smoke plumes reversed directions as the sea breeze returns (28th and 29th)
- Limited areas impacted by smoke after  the 30th

## Paths of the Primary Fires

- Old

- Grand Prix

- Simi

- Piru

## SCAQMD’s Air Quality Communications Machine

- Website and automated telephone voice recording updated hourly from telemetry
- 24-hour operator available 				> air quality specialists					> health effect officer					> meteorology
- Press Office outlet to media
- Air quality forecast and same-day updates issued via e-mail, fax, website posting, AIRNOW and telemetry computer

## Continuous Particulate Monitoring

- BAM PM2.5

- BAM PM10

- TEOM PM10

## The Chinks in the Armor

- Automated information systems report only data monitored at that station		> Ozone reporting is comprehensive		> No mechanism to interpolate real-time 	   PM10 or PM2.5
- Forecast and updates issued to schools, and public include ozone, PM10 & PM2.5 for all areas through the AQI
- Areas having no PM monitoring report the AQI derived from gaseous pollutants

## Monitoring Source-Receptor Areas

**-  Particulate Continuous Monitoring Station**

## The Consequence

- During a wildfire neighboring areas can have extreme differences in reported AQI
- Forecasted or updated AQI in areas having no real-time PM monitoring often conflicts with the automated report
- Many schools use the automated reports to confirm the forecast and determine outdoor activity schedules
- Credibility gap opens

## Slide 16

## Slide 17

## Slide 18

## Translating Smoke Impacts Through the Health Message

- Health Message: 						> Avoid outdoor activities					-  cancel outdoor school recess 		-  postpone after school sports
- 	 		-  wear particulate mask			> Stay indoors turn on air conditioner
- Common sense approach:  				*If you can smell the smoke and the **	**visibility is reduced use caution*

## Communications Problems

- Phone calls by the hundreds per hour
- Angry school administrators	and coaches	> cancel “home coming” football games	> grumpy teachers (kids confined 	       	   indoors)							> parents complaining kids were let 	   outdoors because schools relied on 	   automated information sources
- AIRNOW PM2.5 readings not operational

## The Grinch that Stole Home Coming

## Going With the Flow

- TV, radio, newspapers helped deliver the health message
- Maintained extra communications staffing throughout the weekend and following week
- To address the conflict between PM reporting and non reporting areas issued statement as part of forecast to “*disregard the automated systems until further notice*”

## TEOM & BAM 24-Hour Average PM10 

- 22     23    24    25     26    27    28     29     30   31

## BAM 24-Hour Average PM2.5

- 22     23    24    25     26    27    28     29   30   31

## The October Wildfires

## Grand Prix Fire October 23, 2003

## PM10 (ug/m3) from the Grand Prix Fire (Oct 23rd, 24th)

**23rd**

**24th**

## Grand Prix Fire:  Sunrise October 25, 2003 

## October 25th

## PM10 (ug/m3) from the Grand Prix & Old Fires (Oct. 25th)

**25th**

## October 26, 2003

## PM10 (ug/m3) from the Grand Prix and Old Fires  (Oct. 26th and 27th)

**26th**

**27th**

## Old Fire

## October 27, 2003

## PM10 (ug/m3) from the Grand Prix, Old and Simi Fires  (Oct. 25th, 26th, 27th)

**26th**

**27th**

**25th**

## Ventura County firefighters look at a twister of flame from a wildfire, Sunday October 26th, in Simi Valley 

- Ventura County firefighters look at a twister of flame from a wildfire, Sunday October 26th, in Simi Valley

## Smoke and AQI

- AQI is more responsive to PM2.5
- 3 - PM2.5 sites operated during the fire
- Data from 11- PM10 sites were available
- Average Basin ratio of PM2.5 to PM10  is approximately 0.65 (probably higher for smoke from wildfires)
- Used the ratio to estimate PM2.5 at PM10 sites and calculated the AQI
- Estimated AQI was communicated to the public, media and supported the forecast

## Basin Maximum AQIPM10 Used to Estimate PM2.5(Oct. 24th – Oct 30th)

## Lessons Learned 

- Update all emergency outreach plans and materials distributed to schools and public 	> air pollution episodes				> wildfire smoke					> hazardous spills
- Develop expanded real time particulate monitoring
- Investigate use of airport ASOS visibility as surrogate of fine particulate for AQI reporting