# Presentation: 519503

## IFPS : A Look at the Future

- Michael Buchanan
- WFO Corpus Christi

## Current Status

- Local implementation began May 15, 2002 with the CWF.
- SRH is mandating all regularly issued products be done on IFPS by 9/30/02.
- NWSH is mandating all CONUS sites be fully operational on IFPS by 9/30/03 (Initial Operating Capability).

## What about the ZFP, FWF, RDF and CCF?

- Our office will slowly phase in these other products into our IFPS operations through the upcoming summer.
- Specific dates are yet to be determined.
- Additional training will be necessary to address software changes, updated forecast methodology, new smart tools, etc.

## Software Changes

- There will be more frequent IFPS updates beginning in June 2002.
- Rapid Alpha Process (RAP) was developed to achieve the NWS target of 2003 IFPS implementation.
- RAP software will be upgraded every 6-8 weeks.
- IFPS10 will be the first build.

## Slide 5

## LX1, LX2 & Linux1-crp

- LX1 & LX2 are the two IBM workstations located next to AWIPS WS1 & WS2.
- LX1 & LX2 will have the RAP software.
- They will have the full IFPS ported to Linux.

- Linux1-crp is the Dell machine located next AWIPS WS1.
- Linux1-crp has the Rapid Prototype software (RPP).
- RPP version may be slightly different than RAP.
- Only GFESuite; not full IFPS.

## Future Hardware/Software

- Additional Linux boxes in the future (PP1, PP2).
- Pen mouse graphics tablet.
- Post-build 5.x AWIPS software (OB1).
- Full Linux replacement by FY06.

## Primary reason for IFPS

- Produce a displayable, detailed digital database (National Digital Forecast Database) that can be shared easily among both public and private entities.
- The forecast data should always be “current” and be easily pulled by any customer who wants it (pull vs. push).

## NDFD

- Official NWS digital database.
- Pulled once an hour from each WFO and uploaded to a central server.
- Transmitted through the AWIPS WAN.
- Can now view the NDFD experimental clusters at _[http://165.92.30.124:8080/ndfd_images/](http://165.92.30.124:8080/ndfd_images/)__ (WAN only)._
- Available to all public and private users (i.e, The Weather Channel?).

## Slide 10

## “New way of doing business”

**GRIDS** are the key, **NOT** words!!!!!
- View the forecast “product” as information and not only as text.
- Paradigm shift.
- Working/interacting with models rather than simply looking at them.
- Forecast collaboration vs. coordination.

## “New way of doing business”

- Provide the customer with an easy way to access our forecasts.
- Assigned shift duties may need to be changed based upon a temporal division of forecast responsibility (i.e, short-term and long-term desks) or the “problem of the day”.
- Overlapping shifts may need to be considered.
- Event-driven updates and keeping the grids “current” will be a necessity with NDFD.
- Outreach to customers on IFPS should be strongly considered.

## Time to Issue the Zones?

- We all need to change the way we approach the forecast.
- New forecast paradigm (grids...digital data...graphics...etc.).
- NWS has adopted this paradigm.
- Some forecasters will resist because “this is the way I’ve always done it”.

## When do we issue an update in the IFPS era?

- Event-driven updates.
- Weather does not match forecast.
- New model data arrives (i.e., when the new MRF arrives, you may want to populate Day 7).
- Constant monitoring of the grids will likely be a routine duty.
- WFO Pleasant Hill has their short-term forecaster monitor grids 24 hours a day.

## Internet is a big player with IFPS

- WFO Atlanta has a nice and easy interface for IFPS graphics.
- WFO Pleasant Hill has a powerful interface to access grids and produce text, meteograms and hourly digital data (hourly RDF).  This is a good example of pull technology.

## Slide 16

## Slide 17

## Slide 18

## Slide 19

## Slide 20

## Our Website

- Still need to decide on the template(s) for accessing our gridded forecasts from our website.
- How will the Marine Page fit in with IFPS?
- What about the public and marine matrices that serve as input to the pre-existing graphics? Can we ditch these in a few months?
- Input...suggestions...ideas should go to the webmaster.

## Why is collaboration needed?

## Collaboration Tools

- Intersite Coordination (ISC).
- FX-Connect software.
- Chat room to discuss the forecast situation with neighboring offices.

## ISC

- The main motivation is to make your forecast meteorologically consistent with your neighbor’s forecast.
- Jack Kelly wants a “seamless stream of data”.
- Will help NDFD look more realistic with less in the way of artificial geographical boundaries and individual forecaster bias.

## Slide 25

## ISC

- It is currently disabled on linux1-crp box.
- The next software build (RPP 16.2 and IFPS10) will contain ISC functionality.
- Marine ISC still needs to be addressed.
- Training on this new feature of GFE will occur after it is configured.

## Slide 27

## FX-Connect

- Chat capability.
- Extensive drawing capabilities (i.e., you can draw fronts and other meteorological symbols).
- D2D functionality (Models, WSR-88D, Satellite, etc.).
- NWSH may provide this software to each office in a future software build.

## Daily Forecast Critique

- Allows the forecaster to compare his/her forecast with observations and/or model data.
- Provides real-time “verification”.
- Initially, point verification will be used but eventually grid verification is envisioned.
- Available with the same build as ISC.

## Daily Forecast Critique

## DFC

- Summary statistics are planned (BIAS, MAE, etc.).
- New interface and graphics package are also planned.
- Automated alerts based upon certain thresholds.

## Other upcoming IFPS features

- Fire Weather functionality in IFPS10.
- Marine WWA capability in IFPS10 (MWS can now be produced in WWA).
- AVN and MRF MOS (MAV and MEX) in IFPS10.
- Service Backup functionality in IFPS11 (July/Aug 2002).

## Other issues

- TPC will likely NOT be on board with IFPS for the upcoming hurricane season.
- This will pose a big problem with trying to get your grids to match the official TPC forecast.
- A Smart Tool to decode the TCM data may be a temporary fix.
- Other NCEP sites (SPC, HPC, MPC) are still a **?** in terms of IFPS implementation.

## Recap

- IFPS Implementation will continue through the summer and be completed by 9/30/02.
- Think grids, graphics, web and NOT just text (Paradigm shift).
- Collaboration will become very important with NDFD.
- Many new and exciting software enhancements.
- Shift responsibilities may change (short-term and long-term desks).

## Finally!!!

**Ultimately, the success of IFPS will depend upon the customers who use our gridded data.  **
**The NWS is betting alot on this link between information and the customer!!! **