# Presentation: 191797

## VTECCurrent Status and Future Plans

**Jason Tuell**
**Office of Science and Technology**
**Mark Tew, Herb White and Arthur Kraus**
**Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services**

## Overview

**Summary of VTEC activities in 2004**
**OT&E Results**
**VTEC Implementation**
**Plans for 2005**
**GHG Overview **
**Key Milestones**
**Partner participation**
**10-1703 changes**
**Summary**

## VTEC in 2004Summary of Activities

**Delivered VTEC software to the field for operational testing**
***WARNGEN – short fuse convective and hydrological warnings***
***WWA – long fuse watches and warnings***
***RiverPro – hydrological warnings***
**Delayed testing of VTEC in four marine products to allow policy and software to be refined**
***GHG, ***_***G***_***raphical ***_***H***_***azard ***_***G***_***eneration, software not ready for OT&E schedule***
***Delayed products***
*Offshore waters forecast, Nearshore waters forecast*
*Open Lakes forecast, Great Lakes forecast*
**Conducted OT&E 30 August – 21 October**

## VTEC OT&E

**OT&E conducted 30 August - 21 October**
**OT&E objectives:**
***Demonstrate VTEC codes and associated critical portions of the products were 95******±******5% error free***
***Demonstrate the VTEC concept of operations***
***Demonstrate that training on VTEC and software applications was sufficient to meet the objectives defined above***
***Demonstrate that VTEC quality control was implemented to insure accurate and consistent products***
***Demonstrate that VTEC products could be read and processed by NWS customers and parthers***

## OT&E ResultsVTEC Product Statistics

| Service area | Total 
Evaluated | Passed
 # - (%) | Failed
# - (%) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Hydro | 745 | 437
(59%) | 308
(41%) |
| Marine | 199 | 164
(82%) | 35
(18%) |
| Severe | 733 | 657
(90%) | 76
(10%) |
| Fire | 54 | 31
(57%) | 22
(43%) |
| Public | 469 | 358
(76%) | 111
(24%) |
| Total | 2200 | 1647
(75%) | 553
(25%) |

## Long Fuse WarningsWWA

## OT&E ResultsWarnGen VTEC Product Statistics

**Notes:**
As you can see on this slide, in general the pass rate improved as the test progressed. Of particular note, the SVS made a sharp jump after a software fix was implemented to correct the VTEC end time problem on cancellations. The 2 50% pass rates were due to the limited sample size. That week there were only 2 TOR and MWS followups issued. 

## OT&E ResultsHydrology Products

**Issues identified with Hydro products early in OT&E**
***ETN continuity for products with same phenomena and significance codes issued by different applications***
*By product of  three different warning applications and lack of a centralized ETN database*
*Multiple applications used by different WFOs to generate same products*
**New & unique phenomena code proposed to address ETN continuity problem**
**Policy directive 10-922 will mandate which application will be used to generate which product**
***Areal flood warnings and advisories to be generated solely by WARNGEN vice WWA ***
***Regions and partners concur***

## OT&E ResultsWWA

**Products produced by the WWA application did not meet the acceptance criteria**
**Forecaster workload and useability of the WWA application an issue**
***Offices with WWA experience generally more successful***
***WWA paradigm not a good fit with digital services***
***Errors likely in products that are infrequently issues due to complexity of software and lack of familiarity ***
**Decision not to use WWA to implement VTEC**

## Evaluation CriteriaAssessment

| Objectives | Criteria | Evaluation |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Training   | Ave of 3 or better on training surveys | VTEC – 3.6
WBC – no surveys; training was completed before the plan was approved.  Sense is training was adequate, tool is the issue |
| VTEC Code Compliance with 10-1701 and 10-1703 | VTEC format, Product Code and MND header are 95% accurate | WWA - VTEC strings matched the specification, but ETNs were not correct; MND header issues need to be further analyzed for WWA.  Initial problems with automatic setting of X, E, and/or T codes were fixed during OT&E via ATAN, sites forgot to undue the workaround.  All products need to remove illegal chars.
WarnGen VTEC Code complied  |
| Product internal consistency | Products 85% accurate
 | WWA – ETNs were problematic. Corrections incorrectly coded in WMO header due to limitation.   |

## OT&E Test Review GroupRecommendation

**Go forward with VTEC in five WarnGen Products on 8 February (SVR, TOR, SVS, SMW and MWS)**
***Statistical criteria met, SVS and MWS met in final two weeks***
**Do not go operational with VTEC in WWA products on 8 February**
***Statistical criteria not met; Service Backup did not pass***
***OT&E sites retain experimental VTEC string “x” ***
**Do not go operational with WBC on 8 February**
***Statistical criteria met for products issued (82%)***
***WWA software not stable***
**Do not go operational with VTEC in any Hydrology products (WWA, WarnGen, RiverPro) on 8 February**
**Descope VTEC and WBC requirements to phase in capability**

## OT&E Decision

**Implement VTEC in short fuse convective warnings**
***VTEC in short fuse convective warnings met acceptance criteria***
**Delay VTEC implementation in other products until software was improved, deficiencies resolved**
**Accelerate development of GHG, Graphical Headline Generation, to replace WWA for marine and long fuse watches and warnings**
**Conduct separate OT&E late Spring CY05 on remaining products that will have VTEC**

## VTEC Implementation

**18 Z 8 Feb 2005 - VTEC implemented in short fuse convective watches and warnings**
***WOU Initial, ***
***SVR - Severe Thunderstorm Warning***
***TOR- Tornado warning***
***SVS - Severe follow up statement***
***SMW - Special Marine Warning***
***MWS - Marine Weather Statement (follow up on SMW only)***
**VTEC introduced in products listed above during January in “.x” (Operational products with experimental VTEC line) mode**
**All short fuse convective products to be converted to “.o” mode (operational products with operational VTEC line) on 8 Feb**

## Plans for 2005

**Implement VTEC in short fuse convective warnings on 8 Feb**
**Implement VTEC in remainder of critical watch and warning products by end of hurricane season CY05**
***Replace the WWA software with GHG***
***Implement VTEC in the hydrology products***

## GHG Overview

**GHG = Graphical Hazards Generation**
***Utilize digital grids paradigm to represent hazard***
***Use GFEsuite software which is familiar to all WFO forecasters***
***Add capability to produce VTEC coding and format long-fused watch, warning, advisory ,statement  and some forecast products.***
***Concept prototyped (without VTEC) last winter at 20 CR offices***

## GHG 

## VTEC 2005 Test Plan Schematic

**Preliminary **
**DT&E**

**GHG Risk **
**Reduction  &**
**WBC Static**
**Testing**

**FSL Development**

**GHG DT&E**

**GHG IOT&E**

** **

**WARNGEN**
**Development**

**RiverPro**
**Development**

**Partner Notification**

**AWIPS **
**OB5.1**

**WBC Static Re-Test**

**VTEC OT&E**

## VTEC Testing and Training

**Repeat one OT&E for all VTEC products**
***Convergence with Hydro (WARNGEN & RiverPro) Products for testing with GHG Products.***
**Training **
***Provide additional training on VTEC concepts of operation***
***Provide GHG training***

## GHGWatch By County

**WBC Program Implementation will use GHG**
***Process is much simpler and can be validated ***
***Work within reasonable SPC timeframe for testing***
**WCN becomes official with VTEC **
***May be able to notify earlier (separate from VTEC) date ***

## GHG PlanKey Milestones - Update

**VTEC GHG Risk Reduction (RR) Testing (at NOAA”s NWSHQ)****	****	****beginning 12/20/04**
**Issue IFPS 17.0 GHG ATAN for WFO OT&E sites****	****	****1/26/05****	**
**IFPS 17.0 deployment at WFO RR Sites (incl. WCN formatter)****	****	****beginning 2/02/05 ****	**
**WBC Static Tests w/SPC (use WFO RR sites)****	****	****2/07/05 – 2/18/05****	**
**Fast Service Backup Capability Testing****	****	****1/31/05 – 2/18/05****	**
**Initial GHG Development Completed Milestone****	****	****2/18/05****	****	**
**GHG VTEC/WBC DT&E****	****	****	****3/07/05 – 3/11/05****	**
**GHG VTEC/WBC IOT&E****	****	****	****3/14/05 – 3/25/05****	**
**GHG Training Administered (OT&E sites)****	****	****3/28/05 – 5/07/05****	**
**WBC Static Test w/SPC (regression)****	****	****	****4/11/05 – 4/21/05****	**
**GHG Training Administered (remaining sites)****	****	****4/25/05 – 9/23/05****	**
**National Deployment of Experimental WCN (IFPS 17.X)****	****	****5/18/05 – 6/30/05****	**
**Conduct WBC Proficiency Exercises****	****	****5/23/05 – 7/30/05**
**VTEC OT&E (GHG + Hydro)****	****	****	****5/24/05 – 7/15/05****	**
**Corp. Decision for partner Notification****	****	****7/08/05****	****	**
**OT&E Report Completed ****	****	****	****7/29/05**
**Issue PNS for National Implementation ****	****	****7/11/05**
**Deploy final GHG release (IFPS 17.Final - supports VTEC turn key) ****	****8/30/05 – 10/13/05**
**VTEC Turn Key****	****	****	****11/1/05**

**GHG Plan****Key Milestones - Update**

## Partner Participation

**Provide feedback and evaluate impacts to NOAA’s NWS VTEC and WBC related directive changes**
**Will need the participation of the partners during upcoming test phases**
***Evaluate product compliance during GHG risk reduction exercises***
***IOT&E product evalaution***
***OT&E productr evaluation***

## Changes to NWSI 10-1703 VTEC Directive

- P-VTEC coding
* **Same ETN may appear in Multiple Product Segments of a given event*
*  **EXT action code will be available for Flash Flood Warning*
*  **VTEC in Routine Marine products*
*  **New Phenomena Codes*
*	**FA**** – Areal Flood, ****SW**** – Small Craft for Seas, ****BW**** – Brisk Wind***
*  **Tropical Cyclone Product (TCV) *
*	****Experimental in 2005 for Atlantic Basin***
- H-VTEC coding
*  **Addition of NWS Location Identifier (nwsli)*
*  **Six new Immediate Cause (ic) codes added*
- Other Changes and additions
*  **Valid VTEC event list added as new Appendix*

**Notes:**
Changes to P-VTEC coding 

.The same Event Tracking Number (ETN) for a given event may be used in multiple segments of a product so long as the event valid times overlap between the segments.  A given event (with it’s ETN) may begin and end at different times in different product segments.  This also allows for extensions in time (EXT) for just a portion of an event.
.The Extension in Time (EXT) will be available for Flash Flood Warnings and follow-up statements - but not for other short-duration warnings.
.Coding of VTEC events in Routine Marine products will no longer be limited to the first three forecast periods.  Also, the Routine (ROU) action code will only appear in generic form in Routine Marine products when no other VTEC event is valid.
.New P-VTEC Phenomenon codes has been added for Areal Floods (FA), Small Craft for Seas (SW), and Brisk Wind (BW).  The Phenomenon code for Heavy Sleet (HP) has been removed.
.More information is included on the VTEC coding in the new Tropical Cyclone Product for VTEC (TCV), which will be issued experimentally in 2005 for the Atlantic basin of the United States (including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands).

Other changes not on slide
.The Expired (EXP) action code definition now specifies the time period that it may be used both before and after an event ends.
.The Canceled (CAN) action code definition now specifies the time period that it may be used after an event has been cancelled for a final follow-up or terminating statement.
.The order of multiple P-VTEC strings in a single product segment has been specified.
.The procedure for correcting an upgrade, downgrade, or replacement action has been specified.

Changes to H-VTEC coding  
.A new five-character NWS Location Identifier (nwsli)  field has been added to the beginning of the string.  It will be used for Flood Warnings issued for forecast points, and be zeroed out for areal products.  
.Six new Immediate Cause (ic) codes have been added, primarily for dealing with tidal and storm surge effects.

Other Changes and additions
.A listing of Valid VTEC events (combinations of phenomena codes and significance levels) has been added to the Directive.  It will be kept on a website and updated routinely as events are added and removed.

Other changes not on slide
.Many examples have been revised and a few added because of the above changes.

## Summary

**VTEC to be partially implemented in short fuse convective warnings 8 Feb 2005**
**OT&E successful - determined what would and wouldn’t work in an operational setting**
**GHG software development accelerated to replace WWA**
**Second VTEC OT&E to be conducted late spring 2005**
**VTEC implementation in remaining products by end of hurricane season 2005**

## Back Up Slides

## GHG Testing Roadmap

- Preliminary GHG DT&E** (12/20/04 – 1/28/05)**
***Subset list of products validated (WSW,NPW,WCN,SPS)***
- GHG VTEC Limited Site Test** (begin 2/02/05)**
***Backup pairs from each region (PR will use WES)***
***Provides test of infrastructure (service backup, Action Table)***
***Provides discovery period prior to OT&E (risk reduction)***
***WBC Static and Service Backup Testing with SPC***
- GHG DT&E** (3/7 – 3/11/05)**
***Test all product formatters and software after development period***
- GHG IOT&E** (3/14 – 3/25/05)**
***Use realistic scenarios with field forecasters at test facility***
***Identify and categorize issues***
- WBC Static and Service Backup Regression Testing** (4/11 – 4/21/05) **
***Re-test end-to-end WOU to WCN generation after software upgrades***
- GHG and Hydro VTEC OT&E** (5/24 – 7/15/05)**
***Additional OT&E sites added to initial group***
- Corp Decision for notification message** (7/08/05)**