# Presentation: 750084

## Economic Patterns of Single Mothers Following Their Poverty Exits

**Quinn Moore**
**Anu Rangarajan**
**Peter Schochet**
**ACF/OPRE Welfare Reform Conference**
**June 4-6, 2007**

## Research Questions 

**Research Questions **

**How many single mothers exit poverty and who are they?**
**Why do they exit and how long do they stay out of poverty?**
**What are their income, employment, and welfare experiences over two years?**
**What factors are associated with their economic success?**

## 2001 SIPP Data 

**2001 SIPP Data **

**2001 SIPP**
**Monthly longitudinal data (2001-2003)**
**Includes 615 single mothers who exited poverty during the first panel year (2001)**
**Follows their monthly experiences over a ****two-year period following poverty exit**

## In 2001, More Than Half of Single Mothers Were Ever Poor; 30 Percent Exited Poverty

**Source:   2001 SIPP Data.**

**In 2001, More Than Half of Single Mothers Were Ever Poor; 30 Percent Exited Poverty**

**Never in ****Poverty**

***Poor but Then ******Left Poverty***

**Poor and ****Stayed Poor**

## Why Do Single Mothers Exit Poverty and How Long Do Their Spells Last?

## Earnings Increases Are Most Common; Non-poverty Spells Are Short   

**Earnings Increases Are Most Common; Non-poverty Spells Are Short   **

**75 percent of single mothers exit poverty due to increase in earnings **
**Household composition changes not very common  **
**Median duration of non-poverty spells is about ****8 months**
**Duration does not vary by type of exit  **
**Duration of the next poverty spell for those ****who return to poverty is short (about ****5 months)**

## Single Mothers Who Exit Poverty Can Be Classified into Three Groups

**Source:   2001 SIPP Data.**

**Single Mothers Who Exit Poverty Can ****Be Classified into *****Three***** Groups**

**Cycled in and ****out of Poverty**

**Reentered Poverty ****and Stayed**

**Never Reentered ****Poverty**

## What Are the Characteristics of These Three Groups of Women at the Time of Their Poverty Exits?

## Poverty “Leavers” Face the Least Barriers While the Returners Face the Most 

**Source:   2001 SIPP Data.**
*** Statistically significant at the 5 percent level relative to those who reentered poverty and stayed poor.**

**Characteristic****	**

**Never Reentered **
**Poverty**

**Cycled in and **
**out of Poverty**

**Reentered Poverty **
**And Stayed Poor **

**Non-white****	****53****	****48****	****53**
**Older than 30****	****70*****	****65****	****50**
**Ever married****	**** 62*****	****55*****	****44**
**High school credential****	****92*****	****77*****	****59**
**Health problem****	****12*****	****8*****	****27**
**Received TANF****	****2*****	****11*****	****19**
**Employed****	****64****	****73****	****60**

**Percentage with Characteristic**

## Earnings Increases Are More Common Trigger Events for Poverty “Leavers” Than for Other Groups

**Source:   2001 SIPP Data.**
*** Statistically significant at the 5 percent level relative to those who reentered poverty and stayed poor.**

## Poverty “Leavers” Have Higher Paying Jobs When They Exit Poverty

**Dollars**

**Poverty “Leavers” Have Higher Paying Jobs When They Exit Poverty**

- *

**Source:   2001 SIPP Data.**
*** Statistically significant at the 5 percent level relative to those who reentered poverty ****and stayed poor.**

## And Are More Likely to Have Jobs With Benefits and in Professional Occupations 

**Percentage**

**And Are More Likely to Have Jobs With Benefits and in Professional Occupations**** **

**Source:   2001 SIPP Data.**
*** Statistically significant at the 5 percent level relative to those who reentered poverty ****and stayed poor.**

## What Are the Economic Experiences of the Three Groups During the Two Years After Their Poverty Exits?

## Poverty “Leavers” Had Much Better Outcomes During the Follow-Up Period 

**Percentage**

**Poverty “Leavers” Had Much Better Outcomes During the Follow-Up Period**** **

**Source:   2001 SIPP Data.**
*** Statistically significant at the 5 percent level relative to those who reentered poverty ****and stayed poor.**

**Out of Poverty for ****Half the Period**

**Income More than Twice ****the Poverty Threshold ****for Half the Period**

## Poverty “Leavers” Had Larger Income Gains   

**Poverty “Leavers” Had Larger ****Income Gains****  **** **

**Source:****	****2001 SIPP data.**

**Never Reentered**
**Poverty**

**Cycled In and Out **
**of Poverty**

**Reentered Poverty**
**and Stayed**

**4**

**16**

**68**

**52**

**30**

**6**

**28**

**27**

**3**

**17**

**27**

**22**

## Poverty “Leavers” Spent More Time Employed and Less Time Receiving Benefits

**Source:   2001 SIPP Data.**
*** Statistically significant at the 5 percent level relative to those who reentered poverty and stayed poor.**

**Characteristic****	**

**Never Reentered **
**Poverty**** **

**Poverty ****Cyclers**

**Reentered Poverty ****and Stayed Poor**

**% of time employed****	****88*****	****75*****	****46**
**Received food stamps****	****8*****	****27*****	****55**
**Received TANF****	****1*****	****9*****	****19**

**Percentage with Characteristic**

## Poverty “Leavers” Earned More

**Poverty “Leavers” Earned More**

**Source:   2001 SIPP Data.**

**Never Reentered Poverty **

**Cycled In and Out of Poverty**

**Reentered Poverty ****and Stayed Poor **

**Months Since Poverty Exit **

## And Spent More Time in Better Jobs 

**And Spent More Time in Better Jobs **

**Source:   2001 SIPP Data.**
*** Statistically significant at the 5 percent level relative to those who reentered poverty ****and stayed poor.**

## Multivariate Analyses Show That Initial Job Characteristics Are Important  

**Multivariate Analyses Show That Initial Job Characteristics Are Important  **

**Those with health limitations more than twice as likely to return to poverty and remain poor**
**Those with HS degree more than twice as likely to stay out of poverty   **
**Initial job characteristics**
**Those with health ins. coverage 60 percent more likely to stay out of poverty**
**Those starting in high wage jobs more than 50 percent more likely to stay out of poverty **

## Summary and Conclusions

## Single Mothers Who Exit Poverty Have Diverse Experiences     

**Single Mothers Who Exit Poverty Have Diverse Experiences     **

**As a group, they experience progress over time **
**Poverty Leavers (28%)**
**High levels of income and earnings/most experience income growth **
**Poverty Cyclers (55%)**
**Connected to the labor market/experience some growth in income, but not far above the poverty line**
**Poverty Returners (16%)**
**Small group fared poorly/some returned to public assistance; about half remain disconnected  **

## Employment and Earnings Play a Key Role in Poverty Dynamics for These Women  

**Employment and Earnings Play a Key Role in Poverty Dynamics for These Women****  **

**Most exit or reenter poverty because of earnings changes **
**Initial job quality is strongly associated with economic success, even after controlling for numerous factors**
**Consistent with findings from other studies**
**Employment retention and advancement strategies can be an important issue for this group  **