# Presentation: 925984

## Local Area Augmentation System (LAAS) Draft Benefits AnalysisAugust 2004

## Background

- Original Contract Established With PWC – June 2002
- Identify and Quantify Safety and Efficiency Benefits
- Analyze Potential Savings Through LAAS Commissioning
- Contract Modified – August 2003
- Expanded to Include Comparison of Incremental Benefits to Navigation Baseline
- ASD ROM Analysis Released – October 2003
- Results Costs Exceeded Benefits (0.5:1 BCA)
- Management Supported Continuation of IBM Analysis
- Complete Detailed Independent Analysis of Potential Benefits
- Draft Report – September 2004 (Flight Plan Goal)
- Final Report – October 2004

## Why An Independent Analysis?

- To Conduct An Objective Assessment of the Benefits That LAAS May Provide to Aviation System Users
- To Provide Fact-Based Support For Government and Industry Decisions
- Credibility and Transparency With Industry Stakeholders
- Using Data Provided By Airlines and Airports
- Validate Findings Through Site Visits
- Memphis, Seattle, Bradley, Newark, Chicago
- FedEx, Alaska, United, Continental, Southwest
- Boeing
- Update Industry Stakeholders Through Regular Communication
- Formal Conference Calls to Review Methods and Results
- Informal Discussions, Conversations
- NOT a Formal Business Case or Alternatives Analysis

## Approach

- Created a LAAS Benefits Analysis Team to Develop Initial Assumptions and Provide Feedback During the Study Period
- Team Included ASD, AVR, IBM, MITRE, and the LAAS Program Office
- LAAS Benefits Accrue Only When Capabilities Are Provided Above and Beyond Those Provided by Other Systems
- Assumes No Decommissioning of Any Existing Systems
- Current ILS’s Retained
- No New ILS’s Installed After IOC (FY2009)
- Benefits For Continuing ILS In Lieu of LAAS Are Not Analyzed
- Analysis Includes Both 100% and 0% WAAS Equipage Scenarios
- Study Limited to Top 120 NAS Airports
- Major Airlines’ Top Airports (88)
- NBAA Top 10 Airports
- RAA Top 50 Airports
- LAAS LRIP Sites (6)
- OEP Airports (35)
- Current Cat II/III ILS (79)
- Qualifier Cat II/III ILS (2)

## Navigation Capabilities Baseline

**NAS Baseline**
- Existing Navigation Systems Deployed in the NAS
- Navigation Systems Planned to be Deployed in the NAS During the Twenty Year Time Horizon (2009-2028)
**User Baseline**
- Existing Navigation Equipage of Avionics Systems Available
- Newer Technologies Expected to be Available During the Twenty Year Time Horizon (2009-2028)
- Users Include
- Major and Regional Air Carriers
- Cargo and Passenger
- Domestic Operations
- Corporate
- GA (Alaska Only)
**Baseline Does Not Include Systems in the R&D Stage That Have Not Been Through Proof of Concept**
**Baseline Does Not Include the Impact of Installing ILS at Every Runway End**

## LAAS Incremental Capabilities

- Identify LAAS Capabilities Above and Beyond Those in the Existing Baseline
- Incremental Capabilities Include:
- Precision Approach and Guidance to Multiple Runway Ends From a Single LAAS Ground Facility
- Greater Siting Flexibility
- Multiple Glideslopes For Aircraft Simultaneously Approaching the Same Runway
- Displaced Threshold Without Physical Relocation of the Ground Facility Components
- Complex Guidance For Approach, Missed Approach, or Departure Segments

## LAAS Efficiency Benefits

- Benefits That LAAS Capabilities Have on Disruptions and Efficiency Above and Beyond the Existing Baseline
- Efficiency Benefits Include:
- Reduced Flight Disruptions for Straight-In Precision Approaches
- Reduced Flight Disruptions with LAAS Precision Takeoff Guidance
- LAAS-Based Complex Procedures
- Elimination of ILS Critical Areas
- Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches

## LAAS Safety Benefits

- Conducted by Flight Safety Foundation
- Incremental Safety Benefits LAAS Provides Above and Beyond the Baseline
- Safety Benefits Include:
- Reduced Accidents and Incidents Because of Greater Precision Approach Coverage
- Positive Surface Guidance in Reduced Visibility
- Current Level of Safety Benefits Are Maintained or Improved During Transition

## Societal Benefits

**International Leadership**
- Importance of Maintaining U.S. Industrial Leadership in the World
- Ability to Use Common Avionics/Procedures Worldwide For Seamless and Simplified  Navigation
**Noise Abatement and Mitigation**
**Reduced Impact on Environmentally Sensitive Areas**
**Societal Benefits Include:**
- Noise Rule Violation Costs
- Land Acquisition for Noise Compatibility
- Residential and School Soundproofing
- Reduction or Lifting of Curfews

## Dallas Love Field

- 31R

- 31L

- 13R

- 13L

- 36

- 18

- Current Cat I ILS Runways

- Proposed Cat II/III LAAS Runways

## DAL Example

**Current Operation**
- Cat I ILS on four runways
- 13 L/R
- 31 L/R
- No Cat II/III system
- 0.4% of DAL weather is Cat II/III per year
- Actual Annual Cat II/III Disruptions (Major Airlines):
- Delays = 362
- Cancellations = 56
- Diversions = 23

**LAAS Incremental Benefits**
- Cat II/III landing guidance
- LAAS Cat II/III approach operations on 13L & 31L
- Estimated Annual Cat II/III Disruptions With LAAS (Major Airlines):
- Delays = 168
- Cancellations = 15
- Diversions = 18

## Example - DAL Inputs Used in the Straight-in Analysis

## Summary of LAAS Benefits(120 Airports 2009-2028)

|  | Direct Operating Cost 
 | Passenger Time Savings | Total |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LAAS Benefits
(Assuming 0% WAAS equipage) 
 | $997,000,000 | $994,500,000 | $1,991,500,000 |
| LAAS Benefits
(Assuming 100% WAAS equipage) 
 | $680,200,000 | $663,800,000 | $1,344,000,000 |

## Proportion of the Discounted 20 Year LAAS Best Estimate Benefits

-   The largest benefit is achieved for straight-in approaches, with the             largest portion of that being due to LAAS Cat II/III

## ILS Comparison

- ILS Upgrade/Replacement Costs vs. LAAS or MLS
- Estimate the Ground Equipment, Installation, Operations, and Maintenance Costs Associated with Replacing or Upgrading Existing ILS Installations with Either ILS, MLS, or LAAS
- Cost Analysis of Precision Approach Alternatives
- Evaluate the Relative Costs of Future Allocations of ILS, LAAS or MLS  Ground Equipment
- Alternatives Evaluated:
- Install LAAS
- Install One or Several ILS (s)
- Install One or Several MLS (s)

## Sensitivity Analysis & Issues

**IBM is Conducting a Sensitivity Analysis to Address Concerns Raised During the Study Period**
- LAAS Avionics Installed Over a 6 Year Period, Beginning at IOC
- Minimum LAAS Avionics Equipage Level for Benefit:  80%
- Airline Direct Operating Cost of a Flight Disruption
**Coordinating With ASD on Open Issues:**
- Estimate for Duration of Delays
- Cost of Disruptions
- Airport Configurations

## Schedule

| Deliverable | Due Date |
| --- | --- |
| Navigation Capabilities Baseline | November 15, 2003 |
| LAAS Incremental Capabilities Briefing | December 15, 2003 |
| Presentation of Preliminary Findings | February 25, 2004 |
| LAAS Efficiency Benefits Briefing | June 30, 2004 |
| LAAS Safety Benefits Briefing | August 31, 2004 |
| LAAS Societal Benefits Briefing | August 31, 2004 |
| Draft LAAS Benefits Analysis Report | September 17, 2004 |
| ILS Replacement Cost Analysis | October 31, 2004 |
| Equipment Comparative Analysis | October 31, 2004 |
| Final LAAS Benefits Analysis Report | October 31, 2004 |

## BACK UP SLIDES

## LAAS Characteristics

- One LAAS Provides a Signal Suitable for Use at Most Runway Ends at an Airport Compared to One ILS Per Runway End
- Does Not Have Runway Specific Critical Areas
- Critical Areas Mitigated by Siting Flexibility
- Easier to Maintain
- Fewer Components Per Airport Architecture Allows Multipath Masking
- Less Vulnerable to RFI Than ILS
- Immune to Spoofing
- Airborne Antenna is Less Susceptible to Jamming

## Map Of Airports

## ILS/LAAS Costs

- ILS Costs
- Equipment
- CAT I $150K
- CAT II/III $200K
- Installation
- Replacement $300K
- New $600K
- LAAS Costs
- Equipment $500K-$600K
- Installation $250K-$600K