# Presentation: 220776

## ARTWG Weather Subgroup

- Co-Chairs:
- 	John Madura
-  	NASA KSC, FL
- 	Rich Heuwinkel
- 	FAA/AST
- 	Washington, DC
- May 2003
- Orlando, Florida

## Definition and Scope forWeather Systems

- Definition and Scope forWeather Systems

**Systems are required to rapidly detect, evaluate, and communicate to vehicles, crews, and decision makers, in near real time, those weather parameters, forecasts and warnings which are key to safe, efficient operations. **
**Operations include ground processing, ascent, flight,  and recovery.**
**Weather parameters include upper level winds for vehicle loads and trajectory shaping;  surface winds, thermal structure and natural lightning for ground processing and toxic hazard decisions; triggered lightning potential to protect sensitive electronics;  cloud thickness, coverage and height, and  precipitation for visibility and thermal protection systems; and electron, proton, and x-ray flux to assess flight hazards to vehicle, crew, and payload systems.**
** ****All weather data must be archived to permit  accurate assessments of system design and operational issues. Consultation with weather personnel while designing operational systems or processes, to ensure weather impacts and capabilities are properly considered, is essential to reducing the impact of atmospheric phenomena on Range and Spaceport customers. **
**To cost-effectively develop and implement new technologies, customers must be directly involved in setting goals and priorities through a process similar to that currently exemplified by the NASA/USAF/NWS Applied Meteorology Unit.**

## ADVANCED RANGE TECHNOLOGY WORKING GROUP (ARTWG) CAPABILITY ROADMAP

**ADVANCED RANGE TECHNOLOGY WORKING GROUP (ARTWG) CAPABILITY ROADMAP**
** ****Weather**

- Modernize local sensors
- Initiate development of Space based sensors

- Transition / Optimize Space based weather sensors

- Enhanced Local Prediction

- Regional Weather hubs for forecasting and technology transition

- Centralized hub facilities for forecasting and technology transition

- Improved spatial and temporal resolution and accuracy of forecasts and warnings

- Significant reduction in weather impacts on ground processing productivity, launch scrubs, and EOM diverts

**Near-term**
**FY 2004-2009**

**Far-term**
**FY 2016-2028**

**Mid-term**
**FY 2010-2015**

## Weather Sub-Functions (1 of 3) 

**Forecasts for Spaceport Operations**
- Improved Weather Warnings (lightning w/i 5 NM; winds >35 knots; hail; extreme temperatures, etc) with  >/= 30 minutes lead time
- Improved Catastrophic Weather Warnings—tornadoes, convective & non-convective winds >60 knots, hail >1/2 inch with >/= 15 minutes lead time;  freezing rain and blizzards with > 24 hours lead time
- Improved 2 hour Forecasts of Location of Convective Weather Cells
- Improved Communication of Warnings
**Launch Commit Criteria Evaluation**
- Improved Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC)
- Improved Upper Air Winds
- Improved Low Level Wind (Direction and Speed) Forecasts for winds > 20 knots.
**Toxic Corridor, Debris Impact Points, and Blast Predictions**
- Improved: 4D Toxic Concentration Predictions; Debris Impact Points; and Acoustic Damage

## Weather Sub-Functions (2 of 3)

-  **Recovery Forecasts**
- Improved 90-Minute Forecasts at Recovery Sites. Accuracies met > 95% of time
-  **Infrastructure/People**
- Data automatically sensed, QCd, archived, analyzed, displayed, transformed into forecasts and warnings, and communicated to customers.
- Forecast Hubs serving multiple Spaceports
- Maximum Use of Space Based Weather Sensors to Service multiple Ranges/Spaceports
- Technology Transition Unit(s) to transition needed weather technology into operations
- Advanced Degree Atmospheric Scientists at Space System design nodes

## Weather Sub-Functions (3 of 3)

**Space Forecasts**
- Improved Solar Events Occurrence Forecasts –flare/x-ray level, filament eruption, CME, etc. Help mitigate and exploit effects of space environment on Satcom, radar, and HF Communications
- Improved Solar Events Effects Forecasts—Short Term: Particle events, ionospheric effects, polar cap absorption events, etc.  Help mitigate & exploit effects on spacecraft operations and high altitude aircraft missions including satellite disorientation, false sensor readings, spacecraft charging/damage, degraded communication over poles, and radiation exposure to Astronauts and aircrews.
- Improved Solar Events Effects Forecasts—Long Term: geomagnetic events, etc. Mitigate/exploit effects on spacecraft operations and communications such as spacecraft charging and drag, space track errors, launch trajectory errors, radar interference, and radiation hazards

## Sub-Functions and Capabilities Over Time – Forecasts for Spaceport Operations

| Capability | Near-Term
(FY 2004-2009) | Mid-Term
(FY 2010-2015) | Far-Term
(FY 2016-2028) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Improved Weather Warnings (lightning w/i 5 NM; winds >35 knots; hail; extreme temps etc) with  >/= 30 minutes lead time 
 | Location Error: 4 NM 
FAR: 35% 
POD: 85% 
Met DLT: 80% 
End time: <40 minutes too long  | Location error: 3 NM  
FAR: 20%  
POD: 87%  
Met DLT: 85%    
End time: <20 Minutes too long  | Location Error: 2 NM 
FAR: 10% 
POD: 90% 
Met DLT: 90% 
End time: <10 Minutes too long  |
| Improved Catastrophic Weather Warnings—tornadoes, convective & non-convective winds >60 knots, hail >1/2 inch with >/= 15 minutes lead time;  freezing rain; blizzard with > 24 hours lead time  | Location Error: 40NM   
FAR: 50%  
Met DLT: 80%  
Timing Error: +/- 3 hours | Location Error: 40NM   
FAR: 50%  
Met DLT: 80%  
Timing Error: +/- 3 hours | Location Error: 40NM   
FAR: 50% 
Met DLT: 80%  
Timing Error: +/- 3 hours |
| Improved 2 hour Forecasts of Location of Convective Weather Cells  | <10 mile error  
 >80% of forecasts  | <10 mile error 
>80% of forecasts  | <2 mile error
>90% of forecasts  |
| Improved Communication of Warnings | Received within 5 Minutes of Issue
99% Correctly and Easily understood by customers  | Received within 5 Minutes of Issue
100% Correctly and Easily understood by customers  | Received within 5 Minutes of Issue
100% Correctly and Easily understood by customers  |

## Sub-Functions and Capabilities Over Time – Launch Commit Criteria Evaluation

| Capability | Near-Term
(FY 2004-2009) | Mid-Term
(FY 2010-2015) | Far-Term
(FY 2016-2028) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Improved Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) | Remotely measure meteorological conditions creating electric charge. Reduce unnecessary LLCC scrubs from 75% to 60% | Directly measure Electric Field along/near flight path (ABFM)  
Vehicles hardened to electric charge/discharge  
Reduce unneeded scrubs due to LLCC to 30%  | Remotely measure electric charge along/near flight path L
LCC with thresholds as function of vehicle 
Reduce unneeded scrubs due to LLCC to 15% % |
| Improved Upper Air Winds
 | Automated Quality Control incorporated into Signal Processing | Space Based Profilers to supplement permanent, ground based profilers  | Vehicle Based Profilers to supplement permanent, ground based profilers  |
| Improved Low Level Wind Forecasts for winds > 20 knots. Vector wind accuracies within:
 | 12 Knots at L - 10 Hours 
8 Knots at L - 5 Hours 
5 Knots at L - 0. 5 Hour  | 8 Knots at L - 10Hours 
6 Knots at L - 5 Hours 
3 Knots at L – 0. 5 Hour  | 6 Knots at L - 10 Hours  
3 Knots at L - 5 Hours  
2 Knots at L – 0..5 Hour  |

## Sub-Functions and Capabilities Over Time

| Sub-Function/ Capability | Near-Term
(FY 2004-2009) | Mid-Term
(FY 2010-2015) | Far-Term
(FY 2016-2028) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Toxic Corridor, Debris Impact Points, and Blast Predictions:  
Improved: 4D Toxic Concentration Predictions; Debris Impact Points; and Acoustic Damage  | Acquire measured turbulence values from 915 MHZ profilers and mini-sodars 
Migrate to 3-D puff dispersion model 
Modify debris and blast models to accept forecast atmospheric parameters 
Update vehicle breakup characterization and debris categories 
Update window characterization and population files in blast model  | Improve resolution and frequency of 3-D wind and temperature measurements  
Improve measurements of soil moisture and sea surface/river temperature  
Migrate to higher resolution more accurate mesoscale prediction and dispersion models, blast and debris models  | Remotely measure location and toxic concentration in abort clouds for input to improved dispersion models  
Improved climatology of short-term variance of atmospheric properties for use in risk models  |
| Recovery Forecasts:
Improved 90-Minute Forecasts at Recovery Sites. Accuracies met > 95% of time* | Cloud Base: w/i 400 ft  
Visibility: w/i 1⁄2 mile  
Peak Wind Speed: w/i 5 knots  
Peak Wind Direction: w/I 20 degrees  | Cloud Base: w/i 200 ft  
Visibility: w/i 1⁄4 mile  
Peak Wind 
      Speed: w/i 3 knots  
      Direction: w/i 10 degrees  | Cloud Base: w/i 100 ft  
Visibility: w/i 1/8 mile  
Peak Wind Speed: w/i 2 knots  
Peak Wind Direction: w/i 5 degrees  |

## Sub-Functions and Capabilities Over Time – Infrastructure

| Capability | Near-Term
(FY 2004-2009) | Mid-Term
(FY 2010-2015) | Far-Term
(FY 2016-2028) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Data automatically sensed, QCd, archived, analyzed, displayed, transformed into forecasts and warnings, and communicated to customers  | Requirements for forecaster intervention/labor hours reduced: 35%  | Requirements for forecaster intervention/labor hours reduced: 70%  | Requirements for forecaster intervention/labor hours reduced: 90%  |
| Forecast Hubs serving multiple Spaceports  | Forecast Hubs for 20% of Space Program | Forecast Hubs for 50% of Space Program | Forecast Hubs for 80% of Space Program |
| Maximum Use of Space Based Weather Sensors to Service multiple Ranges/Spaceports | Replace Ground Based Sensors with Space Based Sensors  | Replace Ground Based Sensors with Space Based Sensors 
 | Replace Ground Based Sensors with Space Based Sensors 
 |
| Technology Transition Unit(s) to transition needed weather technology into operations  | Combined ER/WR Technology Transition Unit |  Combined Technology Transition Unit for ER, WR, Wallops (all Federal Gov’t Spaceports  | Combined Technology Transition Unit for all US Spaceports/Ranges (all US Spaceports) |
| Advanced Degree Atmospheric Scientists at Space System design nodes | One Staff Meteorologist at SMC and Other Space Systems Design Nodes  | Three Staff Meteorologists at SMC and Other Space Systems Design Nodes  | Staff Meteorologists Assisting all Spacecraft and Operations Concept Design Nodes  |

## Sub-Functions and Capabilities Over Time – Space Forecasts	

| Capability | Near-Term
(FY 2004-2009) | Mid-Term
(FY 2010-2015) | Far-Term
(FY 2016-2028) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Improved Solar Events Occurrence Forecasts –flare/x-ray level, filament eruption, CME, etc. Help mitigate and exploit effects of space environment on Satcom, radar, and HF Communications  | Category 10% 
Timing +/- 12 hours 
False Alarm rate 25%  | Category 20%  
Timing  +/- 6 hours 
False Alarm Rate 15%  | Category 35% 
Timing +/- 3 hours 
False Alarm Rate 10%  |
| Improved Solar Events Effects Forecasts—Short Term: Particle events, ionospheric effects, polar cap absorption events, etc.  Help mitigate & exploit effects on spacecraft operations and high altitude aircraft missions including satellite disorientation, false sensor readings, spacecraft charging/damage, degraded communication over poles, and radiation exposure to Astronauts and aircrews.  | Category/Flux 10 % 
Timing +/- 30Minutes 
Duration 24 hours 
False Alarm Rate 25%  | Category/Flux 20 % 
Timing +/- 15 Minutes 
Duration 12 hours 
False Alarm Rate 15 %  | Category/Flux 35 % 
Timing +/- 10 Minutes 
Duration 6 hours 
False Alarm Rate 10%  |
| Improved Solar Events Effects Forecasts—Long Term: geomagnetic events, etc. Mitigate/exploit effects on spacecraft operations and communications such as spacecraft charging and drag, space track errors, launch trajectory errors, radar interference, and radiation hazards  | Category/Maximum 10 % 
Timing +/- 16Minutes 
Duration 24 hours 
False Alarm Rate 25%  | Category/ Maximum 20 % 
Timing +/- 3 Minutes 
Duration 12 hours 
False Alarm Rate 15%  | Category/Maximum 35 % 
Timing +/- 1 Minute 
Duration 6 hours 
False Alarm Rate 10%  |

## Near-term

**Near-term**
**FY 2004-2009**

**Far-term**
**FY 2016-2028**

**Mid-term**
**FY 2010-2015**

**Forecasts for Spaceport Operations**
** **- Improve input accuracy
-  - Improve models
-  - Improve data fusion
-  - Improve Communications
**Launch Commit Criteria Evaluation**
- - Lightning
- Upper Level Winds
- Launch Pad Winds
**Toxic Corridors**
**Debris Fallout**
**Blast Predictions**
**Infrastructure/ People**
**Space Forecasts**
**   **

**Denser Sensors**

**ARTWG WEATHER  TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP**

**UAV Sensors**

**Research electric field relationships**

**Remote Sensors  (space based, etc.)**

**Blended System Models**

**Refine Threat Assessment Techniques**

**Reduce vehicle vulnerability to lightning**

**Improved data processing for winds**

**Increased use of wind profilers**

**Improved visualizations**

- (Soil, Buoys, River, GPS)

**Continuous improvement**

**Boundary layer research**

**Improved environmental inputs**

**Improved models – debris, blast**

**Increased staff meteorologists in development orgs**

## Current Technology ProjectsOpportunities for Synergy

- Sensors
- Regional/Statewide Meso-network for Mesoscale models
- GPS based Total Precipitable Water Sensors
- MDCRS: Water Vapor data from sensors on commercial and private aircraft
- 4D Assimilation of data from diverse sources and non-standard times
- Models
- Blended Systems
- MCAR Auto-nowcaster
- NIMROD (UK)
- Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF)
- Warning Decision Support System (WDSS II)
- Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) 2 Data Analysis
- Fusion/Assimilation/Visualization/Communications
- COTS enhancements:  Aural notification, visual displays, automated QC

## Remaining Technology Needs

- Quantity & quality of data for models
- Improve observed thermodynamic (temperature, moisture, pressure) and wind data with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to feed newly developed models
- Improve Space-based surface soil moisture sensors and data algorithms
- Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transformer Spectrometer (GIFTS) (See Earth Observation Magazine August 2002 pg 15 & 27)
- Global Environmental MicroElectroMechanical System  (MEMS) Sensors (GEMS)
- Improve accuracy of >2 day forecasts
- Improve Numerical Model assumptions as Spatial and Temporal Resolution of Models increases
- Improved Blended Systems that  smoothly transition between different time scales, synoptic regimes, and assign weights
- 1. Numerical Models (Analysis, Nowcast, Convective Scale, Mesoscale, Global)
- 2. Extrapolation Techniques\
- 3. Physically Based Rules (heuristic) —all able to be modified & perturbed by forecaster

## Remaining Technology Needs

- Improve accuracy of >2 day forecasts (continued)
- Computers powerful enough to run models at increasingly higher convective scale resolutions and shorter run times to increase usefulness for operational decisions
- Mesoscale models with:
- Spatial Resolution:  < 1 KM
- Forecast Length: 1-96 Hours
- Coverage: Nested---Regional-Local
- Run Time: < 1/10 Forecast Length
- Mesoscale Coupled Sea, Land and Air Model (McSLAM)
- Improve lightning forecasts, downbursts predictions, and lightning LCC evaluation with enhanced:
- 1.     Dual Polarmetric Radar Algorithms
- 2.     Multi-static Radar algorithms  (Full 3D wind )retrieval
- 3.     Radiometer Algorithms
- Remotely measure Electric Fields in clouds
- Modify weather

## Remaining Technology Needs

- Automated analysis tools
- Improved data assimilation, analysis, and visualization tools—needed as data complexity increases, spatial and temporal resolution improves, data latency decreases, etc.
- Measuring electric fields
- Based on results of ABFM 2, initiate new ABFM 3 Data Gathering & Analysis Program to include radiometers and multi-polarization Radar
- Physical Model(s) of Electric Field Generation
- Lightning hardened vehicles, FTSs, and payloads
- Understanding of electric field thresholds for triggered lightning as a function of launch vehicle characteristics
- Day of launch aircraft equipped with field mills, plus other instrumentation such as 1-3 cm radar, dropsondes, cloud sensors, and ability to downlink data to ground in real time. (Helps evaluate possible spatial and temporal variations in electric field near flight path.)
- Ability to** ***remotely* Measure Electric Field Along and Upstream of Flight Path

## Remaining Technology Needs

- Upper level winds
- Multistatic Radar Profilers: Procure and develop a concept of operations
- Satellite based wind profilers
- Vehicle based wind profilers
- Data assimilation, analysis, visualization
- Improved data assimilation, analysis, and 4D visualization tools for numerous parameters with high spatial and temporal resolution
- Mesosphere and 4-D (x, y, z, t) data
- Ability to accurately monitor and forecast temperature, density, pressure, wind speed and direction worldwide

## Remaining Technology Needs

- Improve: Data; Models; People and Sensor Centralization; Technology Transition; and Design Support
- Improved systems to automatically:
- 1. Sense (high resolution 4D), QC, archive, analyze, and display data
- 2. Transform data into forecasts and warnings, provided to forecaster for tailoring
- 3.  Communicate to customers
- Centralize Spaceport/Range: A.  Forecast Support Units; and B. Technology Transition Units, in hubs supporting multiple Ranges/Spaceports, then eventually one which services all Spaceports/Ranges
- Improved Satellite: A. Onboard Power; and B. Transmit Communications Bandwidth
- Advanced Degree Meteorologists participate in: A. Design of vehicles and payloads, and B.Concepts of Operation --for instance at Space and Missile Center. Purpose: Ensure Impact of Environment Is Properly Considered