# Presentation: 769967

## Climate Prediction:Products, Research, Outreach

**Briefing for**
**NOAA’s Science Advisory Board**
**March 19, 2002**
**National Weather Service**
**Climate Prediction Center**
**Jim Laver, Director**
** **
**301-763-8000 x7500, jim.laver@noaa.gov**
**http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/**

## Climate Prediction CenterOverview

**Product Suite**
**Outlooks: Week 2 through Seasons**
**Monitoring: Global, Regional**
**Assessments: Threats, Diagnostics Bulletin, Annual, ... **
**    **
**Product Development and Improvement --**
**       ****Research Areas Needed**
**   **
** ****Outreach -- Products released via AWIPS, **
**       ****Weather Wire, Web, Media, Global Channels,**
**	****    ****Special Briefings to Government Agencies**
**    **

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## Slide 4

## Slide 5

## Slide 6

## Slide 7

## Climate Monitoring

**Global Climate Conditions **
**El** **Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle**
**Temperature and Precipitation**
**Atmospheric winds and pressure**
**Oceanic Temperatures and Currents**
**Stratospheric Temperatures and Ozone**
**Regional Climate Conditions**
**U.S. Precipitation (Drought, Soil Moisture)**
**U.S. Temperature**

## Slide 9

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## Climate Assessments

**Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly)**
**ENSO Diagnostic Discussion**
**United States Assessments**
**Weather/Climate Hazards**
**Drought**
**Degree Days**
**Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Activity**
**Stratosphere**
**Annual global climate**

## Product Research, Development,and Improvement Partners

**Within NOAA**
**- National Climatic Data Center ****	****	****- Climate Diagnostics Center **
**- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ****	****- National Ocean Service **
**- Tropical Prediction Center ****	****	****	****- Environmental Modeling Center **
**-  NWS Regional Headquarters ****	****	****- NWS Forecast Offices (WFO)**
**Outside NOAA**
**	****-**** International Research Institute for ****	****	****- Applied Research Centers **
**	****	****	****Climate Prediction ****	****	****- US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)**
**	****- Scripps Institution of Oceanography****	****	****- Center of Ocean Land and Atmosphere **
**	****- Federal Emergency Management ****	****	****- University of Maryland**
**	****- National Drought Mitigation Center****	****	****- NASA**
**	****- US Air Force****	****	****	****	****- US Aid for International Development**

## Connections to Research

**Weather and Climate links**
**North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)**

## Weather and Climate Links

**El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)**
**Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO)**
**Arctic Oscillation (AO)**
**Trends**
** ****Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)**

## Slide 16

## ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO/NAO)

**Major source of winter intraseasonal variability over U. S., Atlantic and Europe**
**Modulates the circulation pattern over the middle and high latitudes**
**Regulates number and intensity of significant weather events affecting the U.S.**

## Slide 18

## NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)

**NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (NAME)**

**YEAR (2000+)  ****	****00    01    02    03    04    05    06    07    08**
**Planning****	****	****--------------|**
**Preparations****	****                 --------------|**
**Data Collection****	****                 - - - - - - ------------|**
**Principal Research****	**** ****	****                ---------------------------|**
**Data Management****	****                       -------------------------------------|**

**HYPOTHESIS**
**The NAMS provides a physical**
**basis for determining the degree of**
**predictability of warm season**
**precipitation over the region.**

- Intraseasonal Variability

- Boundary Forcing?

- Topographic and Sea-Land Influence

**OBJECTIVES:**
**Better understanding and**
**simulation of:**
**  ****monsoon evolution and **
**   ****variability.**
**  ****response of warm season**
**   ****circulation and precipitation**
**   ****to slowly varying boundary**
**   ****conditions (e.g. SST, soil**
**   ****moisture).**
**  ****diurnal heating cycle and**
**    ****its relation to seasonally**
**    ****varying mean climate.**
**   ****Intraseasonal variability of**
**    ****the monsoon.**

## Outreach

**National --AWIPS, NOAA Weather Wire, Web, Media, Special Briefing to Agencies**
**State & Local -- 122 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) brief media , emergency managers and elected officials**
**American Red Cross, FEMA, DoS/USAID, USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility,  African Desk, other International Centers**

## Summary

**CPC produces outlooks on time scales from week 2 through seasons **
**Monitoring and assessment efforts support forecast operations**
**Product R & D and improvement needed with research partners on all time scales**
**Outreach -- with partners through NOAA and International Systems, Web, Media, and Special Briefings to Agencies**