# Presentation: 579250

## AgClimate Outlooks: Delivering climate-based information to stakeholders in agriculture

**Joel O. Paz, Clyde W. Fraisse, Norman E. Breuer, John G. Bellow and David F. Zierden**

**NOAA 32****nd**** Climate Diagnostics and  Prediction Workshop****Tallahassee, FL****October 22-26, 2007**

## Agricultural Production in the Southeast

- Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat

## Agricultural Production in the Southeast

- Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat
- Cattle and calves

## Agricultural Production in the Southeast

- Cotton, peanut, corn, soybean, wheat
- Cattle and calves
- Pasture and hay
- Vegetables
- Poultry
- Blueberry, strawberry
- Peaches, citrus & other fruits

**Notes:**
SE produce crops, temperate fruits (blueberry, peaches) and tropical fruits (mangoes, avocados) in South Florida

Peanut: Georgia #1; Alabama #3
Cotton: Georgia #2; Alabama #8
Oranges: Florida #3
Vegetables: Florida #2; Georgia #6

## Market Value of Agricultural Products Sold

|  | Alabama | Florida | Georgia |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Crops | $590 million | $5billion | $1.6billion |
| Livestock | $2.6billion | $1.2billion | $3.3billion |
| Total value | $3.2billion | $6.2billion | $4.9billion |
| U.S. Rank | 23 | 9 | 14 |

- Source: USDA 2002 Census of Agriculture

## ENSO and Agriculture in the SE

- ENSO significantly influenced the value of corn, peanuts, soybean and tobacco (Hansen et al., 1998).
- ENSO phases explained an average shift of $212 million, or 26%, in the value of corn.

## ENSO and Agriculture in the SE

- $165 million of losses due to the 1997-1998 El Niño event (Florida Dept. of Ag)

**Notes:**
$165 million of losses in economic activity to agriculture and forestry due to the 1997-1998 El Niño event (Florida Dept. of Ag)

## Farmer Joe’s Questions

**SST**

## Management Decisions

- Variety selection
- Planting dates

**Notes:**
Farmer are more concerned about different management decisions and how a farmer can use seasonal climate forecasts
Climate information is factored into a farmer’s decision for the following items:
-Variety selection; for example, what type of peanut variety can I plant this spring
-Planting daes

## Management Decisions

- Variety selection
- Planting dates
- Acreage allocation
- Amount and type of crop insurance
- Marketing
- Purchase inputs

**Notes:**

Climate information is factored into a farmer’s decision for the following items:
-Variety selection; for example, what type of peanut variety 

Acreage allocation:

## Southeast Climate Consortium

**Southeast Climate Consortium**

**Notes:**
The SECC is in a very unique position to deliver vital climate forecasts to farmers that can be 

## Major Activities

- AgClimate (_[www.AgClimate.org](http://www.agclimate.org/)_*)** *
- Training and education
- Interaction with growers and producers

## AgClimate

- Main mechanism for dissemination of information
- Tools
- Outlooks

## AgClimate Website

**http://www.agclimate.org**

## AgClimate Tools

## El Niño

**Oct 1-Jan 15:  ****560**** chill hours**

**El Niño**

**Notes:**
Chilling is a measure of the cool conditions that occur during the winter and promote rest and satisfaction of dormancy of crops. Because different crops respond to different temperatures, what seems 'cool' for one crop may not affect another. Chilling can be calculated for specific crops by indicating the crop's preferred range of cool temperatures and may differ substantially between crops. The tool relies on both historical weather records and information about the impact of differences in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, El Nino-Southern Oscillation on seasonal conditions in the Southeast United States. 

## La Niña

**Oct 1-Jan 15:  ****462**** chill hours**

**La Niña**

## Seasonal Outlooks

## SECC Climate Outlook

## SECC Climate Outlook

## SECC Climate Outlook

## SECC Climate Outlook

## SECC Agricultural Outlook

- SECCExtensionSpecialists

**Notes:**

We ask several extension specialists for their input:
For example, we’ll ask about the possible impacts of a La Nina winter on tropical fruits

## SECC Agricultural Outlook

## Extension Articles

**Extension Articles**

**Notes:**
Peanut
Reduction is severity of Cylindrocladium black rot (CBR). “CBR” tends to be most severe when we have a cool and wet spring which aides in early-season infection. While La Niña conditions won't eliminate CBR this season by any stretch of the imagination, the disease will hopefully be less severe. 
Thrips, the vectors of tomato spotted wilt virus, are quite active due to the unusually warm weather this season 
Warm soil conditions could increase the risk for early-season white mold. Growers are typically advised to initiate a fungicide program specifically for white mold approximately 60 days after planting 
Underground white mold may also become a problem if conditions remain hot and dry. Underground white mold is the same disease as the more familiar “white mold”; however only attacks the below-ground parts of the plant. 

Cotton
Telone II is a fumigant used to manage nematodes in cotton production. To optimize soil conditions for fumigation, the grower can apply 1 inch of water prior to application of Telone II. 

Temik 15G is commonly applied in-furrow by cotton growers to control not only thrips, but nematodes as well.  Temik is a granular product that requires moisture in the soil for “activation”. 

AVICTA Complete Pak is a new seed treatment package from Syngenta that includes a nematicide component.  The grower can expect better performance out of AVICTA Complete Pak with adequate soil moisture to aide in the translocation of the nematicide to the roots.

## Extension Newsletter

**Notes:**
Peanut
Reduction is severity of Cylindrocladium black rot (CBR). “CBR” tends to be most severe when we have a cool and wet spring which aides in early-season infection. While La Niña conditions won't eliminate CBR this season by any stretch of the imagination, the disease will hopefully be less severe. 
Thrips, the vectors of tomato spotted wilt virus, are quite active due to the unusually warm weather this season 
Warm soil conditions could increase the risk for early-season white mold. Growers are typically advised to initiate a fungicide program specifically for white mold approximately 60 days after planting 
Underground white mold may also become a problem if conditions remain hot and dry. Underground white mold is the same disease as the more familiar “white mold”; however only attacks the below-ground parts of the plant. 

Cotton
Telone II is a fumigant used to manage nematodes in cotton production. To optimize soil conditions for fumigation, the grower can apply 1 inch of water prior to application of Telone II. 

Temik 15G is commonly applied in-furrow by cotton growers to control not only thrips, but nematodes as well.  Temik is a granular product that requires moisture in the soil for “activation”. 

AVICTA Complete Pak is a new seed treatment package from Syngenta that includes a nematicide component.  The grower can expect better performance out of AVICTA Complete Pak with adequate soil moisture to aide in the translocation of the nematicide to the roots.

## Specific management recommendation- developed by Commodity Extension Specialist

**Specific management recommendation****- developed by Commodity Extension Specialist**

## County Agent Trainings

**AgClimate workshop ****(Jan 26, 2005)**

**Notes:**
Statesboro: Feb 2006
Griffin: Feb 2007

## County Agent Trainings

**AgClimate workshop for county agents ****(Statesboro, Georgia; Feb 7, 2006)**

**AgClimate workshop for county agents ****(Griffin, Georgia; Feb 7, 2007)**

**Notes:**
Statesboro: Feb 2006
Griffin: Feb 2007

## Working with Farmers and Stakeholders

**Meeting with adivsory group in Headland, Alabama (February 26, 2007).**

## Working with Research and Extension Faculty

**John Bellow showing the different features of the AgCclimate chill accumulation tool to Kathy Taylor (UGA Stone Fruit Specialist) and Frank Funderburk (Peach Co. Extension Coordinator).**

**L-R: Joel Paz and Rabiu Olatinwo with Bob Kemerait (Extension Plant Pathologist) and Albert Culbreath (Plant Pathologist).**

**Working with Research and Extension Faculty**

## Challenges

- Provide improved El Niño/La Niña forecasts
- Improve availability of timely updates
- How can the SECC improve the partnership with the Ag. Research Faculty and Cooperative Extension Service?

**Notes:**
Provide improved El Niño/La Niña forecasts with the needed lead-time and the accuracy to enhance effective agricultural and water use planning; 
Support programs and policies to make financial assistance more available to those in agriculture; 
Improve availability of timely updates and predictions of productivity, time-to-market, and other evolving characteristics of competing markets; 
Extend knowledge about economically viable alternatives to the present distribution of crops and methods; 
Develop plans and capabilities for planting crops and crop varieties that are better adapted for projected changes in temperature and precipitation; 
As climate changes, adjust field operations by, for example, switching crops; sowing earlier, later, or twice during the season; and conserving soil moisture through conservation tillage methods; 
Consider and introduce more efficient irrigation technologies, especially where water resources are becoming limited; and 
Invest in agricultural biotechnology to expand the set of crop options for responding to climate changes. 

## Thank you!

- Dr. Joel O. Paz
- University of GeorgiaGriffin, GA770-228-7399jpaz@uga.edu

## Regional Yield Maps

## Rainfed Peanut (Georgia)

**Notes:**
Average of all Georgia counties 

## SECC Objectives

- Outreach
- Research and Development
- Partnerships
- Monitoring & Assessment

**Notes:**
Develop methodologies to deliver climate forecasts and customized information to agricultural, forestry and water resources managers
Conduct research needed to combine and translate climate, agricultural, forestry and water resources information into decision aid products.
    Build partnerships with extension, agricultural, forestry and water resources managers to ensure that our findings and products are relevant
    Document and assess the utility and impact of climate forecast information provided to stakeholders

We will hear more about farmer’s perspective from my colleague, Todd Crane, who will presenting later in this session.