# Presentation: 882230

## END PRODUCTS

- End product generation
- Can be center specific
- Need to conform with procedures/requirements established at different centers
- End products generated at NCEP
- Based on prioritized list of requests from NCEP Service Centers
- Graphical products (including Caribbean, South American, and AMMA areas)
- NCEP official web site (gif)
- NCEP Service Centers (NAWIPS metafile)
- Gridded products
- NAWIPS grids
- NCEP Service Centers
- GRIB2 format
- Products of general interest (Possible ftp distribution, no decision yet on products)
- NDGD (10-50-90 percentile forecast value + associated climate percentile)
- End products generated at MSC
- TBD
- End products generated jointly
- Experimental probabilistic Week-2 forecast
- Fully automated, based on basic products: bias corrected, weighted climate anomalies
- Can become official product once performance reaches current operational level

## End product generation
One stream to generate multiple product formats (Dave Michaud)
Start with highest priority items from prioritized list from Service Centers (Z. Toth)
Required NAWIPS tools ready by Sept & Dec 2005 (Maxine Brown)
Default graphical setup to be developed & JIF’d for web display (Maxine Brown)
NAWIPS graphical products using web default display (Dave Michaud)
NAWIPS & GRIB2 product generation as part of one product stream (Dave Michaud)
End product distribution
Supercedes current global ensemble products based on NCEP ensemble only
As NAESF products are introduced, they replace current NCEP products
NAWIPS grids, displays
NCEP official web site 
Public
NAEFS partners/users
Central & South America
Africa (AMMA)
Polar regions (IPY)

- One stream to generate multiple product formats (Dave Michaud)
- Start with highest priority items from prioritized list from Service Centers (Z. Toth)
- Required NAWIPS tools ready by Sept & Dec 2005 (Maxine Brown)
- Default graphical setup to be developed & JIF’d for web display (Maxine Brown)
- NAWIPS graphical products using web default display (Dave Michaud)
- NAWIPS & GRIB2 product generation as part of one product stream (Dave Michaud)
- End product distribution
- Supercedes current global ensemble products based on NCEP ensemble only
- As NAESF products are introduced, they replace current NCEP products
- NAWIPS grids, displays
- NCEP official web site
- Public
- NAEFS partners/users
- Central & South America
- Africa (AMMA)
- Polar regions (IPY)

**DETAILS**

## ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS - FUNCTIONALITIES

|  | FUNCTIONALITY | CENTRALLY GENERATED | LOCALLY GENERATED | INTERACTIVE
ACCESS |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Mean of selected members  Done |  |  |  |
| 2 | Spread of selected members Done  |  |  |  |
| 3 | Median of selected values Sept. 2005 |  |  |  |
| 4 | Lowest value in selected members Sept. 2005 |  |  |  |
| 5 | Highest value in selected members Sept. 2005 |  |  |  |
| 6 | Range between lowest and highest values Sept. 2005 |  |  |  |
| 7 | Univariate exceedance probabilities for a selectable threshold value FY06? |  |  |  |
| 8 | Multivariate (up to 5) exceedance probabilities for a selectable threshold value FY06? |  |  |  |
| 9 | Forecast value associated with selected univariate percentile value Sept. 2005 - FY06? |  |  |  |
| 10 | Tracking center of maxima or minima in a gridded field (eg – low pressure centers) Sept. 2005, Data flow FY06? |  |  |  |
| 11 | Objective grouping of members FY08? |  |  |  |
| 12 | Plot Frequency / Fitted probability density function at selected location/time (lower priority) FY07? |  |  |  |
| 13 | Plot Frequency / Fitted probability density as a function of forecast lead time, at selected location (lower priority) FY07? |  |  |  |

- List of centrally/locally/interactively generated products required by NCEP Service Centers for each functionality are provided in attached tables (eg., *MSLP, Z,T,U,V,RH, etc, at 925,850,700,500, 400, 300, 250, 100, etc hPa)*

***Potentially useful functionalities that need further development:***
- - Mean/Spread/Median/Ranges for amplitude of specific features - Mean/Spread/Median/Ranges for phase of specific features

***Additional basic GUI functionalities:**** *- Ability to manually select/identify members - Ability to weight selected members *Sept. 2005*

## ENSEMBLE PRODUCT REQUEST LIST FROM 

- ENSEMBLE PRODUCT REQUEST LIST FROM
- NCEP SERVICE CENTERS - *EXCERPT*