# Presentation: 749639

## Estimating Air Pollution Improvements and Better Health due to Climate Change Policy

- Carleen Ghio & Don McCubbin
- Abt Associates Inc.

## Climate Policy and Improvements in Health

- Carbon dioxide contributes to climate change, but it does not commonly cause poor health
- However, carbon dioxide *policy* can reduce poor health by reducing sulfur dioxide and other emissions

## Co-Benefits Risk Assessment Model (COBRA)

## Quantifying Health Improvements

- User inputs reductions in air emissions such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides
- COBRA quantifies the associated reduction in particles, and the improvement in people’s health

## Why Focus on Particles?

- Particles have been linked with the most serious health effects
- Premature mortality, Chronic bronchitis, Hospital admissions and Asthma

## Particles & Poor Health

- EPA studies show many affected by particles
- Clean Air Act prevented 23,000 premature deaths and 20,000 cases of chronic bronchitis
- Improved heavy duty diesel emission standards prevented 8,000 premature deaths and 5,000 cases of chronic bronchitis
- Still room for improving health by reducing particles

## Sources of Particles

- Direct
- Combustion (also wind erosion, road dust, construction)
- Indirect Formation in the Atmosphere from Gases

## Indirect Formation of Particles

## 1.  User Calculates the Emission Reduction from Climate Change Policy

- Use the CAP software, your own independent estimates, etc.
- Estimate reductions in sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, particles and volatile organic carbons
- These contribute directly (or indirectly) to particles in the air

## 2.  COBRA Calculates Particle Formation

- COBRA incorporates the user-defined emission changes into a relatively simple air quality model used by EPA in previous analyses, such as the NOx SIP call
- There are more sophisticated models, however this model provides inexpensive, reasonably good ballpark estimates

## 3.  COBRA Calculates Reduction in Poor Health 

- COBRA uses mathematical functions to link the estimated change in particles with the latest epidemiological studies
- Premature mortality, Chronic bronchitis, Hospital Admissions, and Asthma

## Air Pollution Emissions Data in COBRA 

- COBRA contains 2007 air emissions data specific to one state, such as New York
- Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, etc.
- Displays data down to the county level

## Data can be viewed as tables...

## ...and as interactive maps

## User has Flexibility to Define Emission Reductions 

- User determines changes in emissions and enters them into COBRA
- User enters percentage reduction or tons of emission reduced
- Sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic carbons, particles, and ammonia

## Example Scenario Calculation 

- Shift to wind energy in New York, leading to a 10 % reduction in emissions in the Electric Utility Sector

## To define this scenario:

## Slide 18

## Scenario Results: Air Quality

## Scenario Results: Health Effects

## Scenario Results: Mapping Tool

## Availability and Information

- Abt Associates is developing pilot models for several states under direction of the EPA State and Local Climate Change Program
- For more information contact Denise Mulholland:  mullholland.denise@epa.gov