# Presentation: 035540

## Fisheries Ecosystem Models: Technical Details and Prospects for Partnerships

**Fisheries Ecosystem Models: Technical Details and Prospects for Partnerships**

**Howard Townsend, Ph.D.**
**NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office (NMFS)**
**- Cooperative Oxford Lab (NOS/NCCOS)**
**January 15, 2008**

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## "It was the Law of the Sea, they said. Civilization ends at the waterline. Beyond that, we all enter the food chain, and not always right at the top."

- -Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Presentation Outline

- Introduction
- Chesapeake Bay Fisheries Ecosystem Model
- NOAA/NMFS Ecosystem Modeling and International Efforts:
- NEMoW
- UN Reports
- Technical Details (Major Models/Model Types/Software)
- Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)
- Atlantis
- Gadget
- Opportunities for Partnerships
- NEMoW Members
- Plans for future NEMoW

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## CB Fisheries Ecosystem Model

- Developed in cooperation between NOAA CBO/Oxford, CRC, UBC with support from many bay researchers using Ecopath with Ecosim software (code base)
- A companion to the CB Fisheries Ecosystem Plan
- Technical report (230 p) completed/in review
- Chesapeake Bay tidal waters
- 45 functional groups
- Replicates ecosystem history 1950 – present

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Slide 6

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Inputs and Links to EwE

- Input

- Monitoring
- Stock assessment
- Literature
**CBREEM**

- Mediation
- Forcing

- Habitat and water quality (e.g., SAV, DO)

- Management
- scenarios

*Ecopath*

*Ecosim*

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

**Notes:**
Inputs: monitoring provides biomass; stock assessment for fishing mortality and catching; Literature and lab studies for diet composition. CBREEM output provide historical pattern in primary production.
In addition, water quality data and habitat information can be used to generate mediation and forcing function for EwE

## Chesapeake Bay Regional Estuarine Ecology Model (CBREEM)

**Purpose**
- Generate historical patterns in primary productivity for EwE
**Introduction & Methods **
- Two layer, simple hydrographic model (monthly time steps for 50+ years)
***Use wind, rainfall, gage inflow, and relative loading as inputs***
- Solve for equilibrium velocity fields on Richardson grids  and make chemical mass-balanced calculations (Wright et al. 1986, Hunter and Hearn 1991)
**Results**
***Chla (used as nutrient loading forcing function for EwE)***

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Forcing Data  (Input) for CBREEM 

**Wind**
- Thomas Point, Maryland (TPLM2, 1985-2002, NOAA National Buoy Data Center) and trigonometric functions (1950-1985)
**Rainfall **
- Monthly average from ten stations (1950-1997, NOAA National Climate Data Center) and a reference index in Washington D.C. (1998-2002)
**Gage inflow**
- Nine gauged rivers (USGS)
**Relative loading (Nitrogen)**
- 1984 to 2003 from monitoring  (average: 0.9126 mg/l)
- Susquehanna river (1945-1984) from Dr. Hagy
- Other eight rivers (1945-1984) – monthly average from 1984 to 2003

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Model Interface

- Chla

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Summary

- Input

- Monitoring
- Stock assessment
- Literature
- CBREEM

- Mediation
- Forcing

- Habitat and water quality (e.g., SAV, DO)

- Management
- scenarios

*Ecopath*

*Ecosim*

- Habitat mediation for blue crab YOY via SAV

- Physical forcing through DO for striped bass

- Menhaden B changes under different SB Fs

**DO data (1985-2006)**

**Long-term forcing function Sij**

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## CBFEM Plans

- _Applications_
- Support development of ecosystem-based fisheries management plan
- Tool for exploring ecosystem impacts of fisheries management decisions in developing EBFM
- Provide guidance in identifying research, monitoring and assessment needs
- _Development_
- Review of current model data (basic input, drivers, and validation) guided by EMTAP under the purview of FSC
- Improve data and ensure we have adequately mined data (Maddy)
- Link FEM with Water Quality and other physico-chemical models (Hongguang)
- Explore other ecological, climatological, etc. impacts on the Chesapeake fisheries ecosystem
- The ultimate goal is to use CBFEM (and **other ecosystem management models**) in a process similar to single species stock assessment models.  The CBFEM will be developed, reviewed, applied and updated on a regular cycle with oversight from a technical committee.

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## NOAA/NMFS  and International Ecosystem Modeling Efforts

**Fisheries Ecosystem Modeling is new and needs regulatory/management foundations**

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## NOAA Ecosystem Modeling Team

- Funding NEMoW
- _N_ational _E_cosystem _Mo_deling _W_orkshop
- Approved and Sponsored by NMFS Science Advisory Board Meeting
- 1st meeting August 2007 to exchange ideas on approaches and develop best practices for fisheries ecosystem/multi-species models
- A national workshop to standardize methodologies and approaches when using ecosystem, bio-physical and multispecies models
- Responsive to a wide range of calls for EAM/EAF/IEA/etc.

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Why NEMOW?

- There have been only limited and ad hoc efforts to provide a standardized approach for Eco/MS models:
- software packages
- recommendations for use
- parameterization protocols
- validation protocols
- data requirements

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Stock/Single Species

**Stock/Single Species**

- Ecosystem

- Multi-species

- Aggregate Biomass

**SS models, forget ecosystem issues**

- Messy Picture Here

*Gadids*

*Flatfish*

*Pelagics*

**Gradient of Possibilities**

**Multiple SS assessments in “harmony”**

**SS assessments with explicit M2 or habitat or climate considerations**

**Multi-species assessments**

**Aggregate Biomass Models**

**Whole System Models, forget pop dy**

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

**Notes:**
We do this for stock assessments, rarely for other elements of the ecosystem

## What – NEMoW Products

- Workshop Report
- Howard Townsend, Jason Link, Kenric Osgood, Todd Gedamke, George Watters, Jeff Polovina, Phil Levin, Ned Cyr, and Kerim Aydin. 2008 (Submitted). Report on NOAA National Ecosystem Modeling Workshop. NOAA/NMFS Technical Memorandum)
- Evaluation of Models
_**Recommendations for National EM Standards/Guidelines of use & review**_
_**Recommendations for Standardized Approaches**_

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## International Efforts

- United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
- Report on Classes/Categories and uses of Ecosystem Models for Fisheries (out Aug 2007) *Reference:* Plagányi 2007. Models for an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries. FAO Fisheries Technical paper 477                   →
- Report of Modelling Ecosystem Interactions for Informing an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries: Best Practices in Ecosystem Modeling, Tivoli, July 3-6, 2007 (out soon)

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Conclusions from External Efforts

- Ecosystem Models and Management Advice
- Conceptual/understanding:  of the structure, functioning and interactions of the ecosystem, or sub-system, under consideration. May not be used explicitly in decision-making or scientific advice but forms the underlying context for any detailed management planning and decision-making
- Strategic decisions: linked to policy goals and are generally long-range, broadly-based and inherently adaptable
- Tactical decisions: aimed at the short-term (e.g. next 3-5 years), linked to an operational objective and in the form of a rigid set of instructions e.g. tactical decision to change quota
- Model types
**Whole ecosystem models**: models that attempt to take into account all trophic levels in the ecosystem
**Minimum Realistic Models (MRM):** limited number of species most likely to have important interactions with a target species of interest
**Dynamic System Models (Biophysical)**: represent both bottom-up (physical) and top-down (biological) forces interacting in an ecosystem
**Extensions of single-species assessment models (ESAM)**: expand on current single-species assessment models taking only a few additional inter-specific interactions into account

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Conclusions from NMFS & International Efforts

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Technical Details (Major Models/Model Types/Software)

- EwE, Atlantis, and Gadget

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## EwE: An Overview

- Data

- Model

- Research

- Application

- Biol.: B, P/B,
- Q/B, diet.
- Fleet catches

- Manual

- Ecoranger

- Automatic

- Pedigree
-  M.Carlo

- Vulnerability, mediation, ...

- Mass-balance
- (Ecopath)

- Time-dynamic
- (Ecosim)

- Spatial-dynamic
- (Ecospace)

- Nutrient-O2
- seagrass, ...

- Habitat preference,
- dispersal, migration etc.

- Spatial cost of fishing

- Prim.prod.(SeaWIFS)

- Runoff, nutri-ents, depth, ...

- Persistent
- pollutants

- Tracer-
- dynamic
- (Ecotrace)

- Who eats whom?
- Network analysis

- Biol. & fishing time series

- Fisheries *vs.*
- environment

- Protected
- area dynamics.
- Spatial effort allocation

- Environmental time series

- Policy
- exploration

- Economics,
- social info.

- Fisheriesmanagement

- Functionalresponse, etc.

- Ocean zoning

- Academic
- (ecol. theory)

- MPA size
- (Ecoseed)

- Seaso-nality

- Sensitivity
- analysis

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## EwE - Simpler Overview

- ECOPATH
- Began with Polovina 1984, updated by Christensen and Pauly (early 1990s) - statistics added until current (year 2000) version.  But basic equations are unchanged (and well-examined) for over 10 years.
- ECOSIM (and ECOSPACE)
- Recent work to make a food web dynamic, theory and practice new (some is un-reviewed with ad-hoc corrections).
- Designed for quick running and exploring policy scenarios
- Strengths
- Unified format is strength
- Recent re-programming (Visual Basic 6→ .NET) October 2007
- Allows easier access to code and
- Facilitates 2-way model coupling (interoperability)
- Enhanced visualization
- Developers are creating basic database-driven models of all LMEs

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Practical Application of EwE: Ecosystem Trophic Modeling

**Ecopath** is used to organize data (esp. historical) on trophic interactions and population sizes. Has routines for entry of key data on the biology and exploitation of ecosystem groups, and for creating a mass-balance “snapshot” of an ecosystem.
**Ecosim** builds dynamic predictions by combining the data with foraging arena theory. Provides dynamic simulation of effect changes in fishing or environmental regimes may have on fisheries catches (volume and value) and the abundance of various groups in the ecosystem.
**Ecospace** for addressing spatial policy questions, esp. marine protected areas.
**Ecotrace** for exploring ecosystem effects of persistent pollutants

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## What are the strengths of EwE model approach?

- Ecosim is freely available, large user community
- Improved understanding of data systems (multiple agency, multiple scale data assimilation)
- Functional response parameterization is very flexible, much more advanced than many published forms
- Simulates a wide variety of fishing scenarios, including spatial management in Ecospace
- Simulates changes in production regimes
- Ability to represent age structure for many groups
- Biomass dynamics of whole ecosystem considered, see both direct effects and side effects of scenarios
- Broad user-group

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Ecosystem models can improve our understanding of interactions between species, climate, fishing, and habitat.

The Atlantis ecosystem model (Fulton et al. 2004) is a strategic tool used to:1.  synthesize this information; 2.  simulate possible ecosystem responses;3.  identify key processes that govern ecosystem  condition

Atlantis is programmed in C++ and is freely available (and become increasingly well-documented)

- The** Atlantis** ecosystem model (Fulton et al. 2004) is a _strategic_ tool used to:1.  synthesize this information; 2.  simulate possible ecosystem responses;3.  identify key processes that govern ecosystem  condition
- Atlantis is programmed in C++ and is freely available (and become increasingly well-documented)

**Atlantis (code base)**

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## 3-dimensional structure of model

**3-dimensional structure of model**

**Daily oceanographic fluxes**
**(water, heat, salt)**
**into and out of each box are**
**controlled by a ROMS**
**oceanographic model**

**Biogeochemistry**

**Hydrographic**
**submodel**

**Climate and oceanography**

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

**Notes:**
Al Hermann, PMEL

## Uses for Atlantis: Management Strategy Evaluation

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Pros
 Flexible options for predation, reproduction, growth, gape limitation

 MSE (monitoring,  assessments, indicators, economics, management)

 Nutrient handling, and interfaces with ROMS oceanography output (and other hydrodynamics model output)

Migrations out of region

** ****Flexible options for predation, reproduction, growth, gape limitation**
** ****MSE (monitoring,  assessments, indicators, economics, management)**
** ****Nutrient handling, and interfaces with ROMS oceanography output (and other hydrodynamics model output)**
**Migrations out of region**

**Cons**
**Build time (6-12 months)**
**Run time (hours-****	****days)**
**Lacks balancing routines**
**Cumbersome parameterization**

**Atlantis – Pros & Cons**

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

**Notes:**
Adaptive environmental assessment (AEA) tradition for ecospace
Sensitivity runs difficult

## GADGET

- Forward simulation model
- Create a virtual population within the model
- Follow the fish through their lives
*Fishing, mortality, growth, maturation, etc.*
- Process driven
*E.g. percentage becoming mature, not percentage mature at age*

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## GADGET - Software

- Written in C++
- Can be run under UNIX/Linux and PC (using cygwin)
- Source code has to be downloaded, and then compiled on local computer
- Code has been used for many years – well tested
- Documentation and examples available on-line
- Graphics not included in package – only numerical output
- Further development of code not decided at the moment – main programmers have got new jobs

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Gadget - Strengths

- Flexible tool
- May integrate a wide variety of information on different resolution (biological/spatial/temporal)
- Model and data independent
- Well documented
- Suitable for modelling systems with a few main species/interactions (e.g. boreal ecosystems)
- Age data not needed
- Gaps in data/knowledge may be identified – no hidden assumptions

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Opportunities for Parterships

- NEMoW Steering Committee,
- Current Software Developers

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Potential Partners in NEMoW (NMFS)

- NEMoW Steering Committee (NMFS)
- Jason Link			Northeast FSC
- Howard Townsend		NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
- Kerim Aydin		Alaska FSC
- Ned Cyr			Office of Science & Technology
- Kenric Osgood		 Office of Science & Technology
- Todd Gedamke		Southeast FSC
- Jeff Polovina		Pacific Islands FSC
- Phil Levin			Northwest FSC
- George Watters		Southwest FSC
- NEMoW Web Site
**http://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/st7/nemow.htm**

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office

## Potential Partners for Software Development

- Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)
- Villy Christensen, University of British Columbia Fisheries Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia
- Atlantis
- Beth Fulton, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation*, *Hobart, Tasmania
- GADGET - Globally applicable Area Disaggregated General Ecosystem Toolbox, **www.hafro.is/gadget**
- Bjarte Bogstad, Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway

- NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office