# Presentation: 851916

## TNC’s Adaptation Efforts in 

**TNC’s Adaptation Efforts in **
**Conservation Landscapes:**
**Sentinel Ecosystems**

**Sam Pearsall**
**Jeff DeBlieu**

## Slide 2

## Slide 3

## US Northwest 2x Scenario

**US Northwest 2x Scenario**

## Slide 5

## Slide 6

## Slide 7

## Slide 8

## Are we stuck

**Are we stuck**
**with being sitting ducks?**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## A Sentinel Ecosystem is one where

**A Sentinel Ecosystem is one where**
**the threat is clear and**
**we test response**
**hypotheses.  We will **
**use the results to **
**guide our actions**
**in similar situations**
**globally.**

## RISING SEAS AND THE ALBEMARLE: A CASE STUDY

**RISING SEAS AND THE ALBEMARLE: A CASE STUDY**

## Albemarle Sound 

**Albemarle Sound **
**Land & Seascapes**

**Albemarle Sound**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## The current rate of sea level rise is

**The current rate of sea level rise is**
**4.3 mm/year = 2 inches/10 years.  **
**The rate is expected to double or triple.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## Inundation at 1/3, 2/3 and 1 meter levels.

**Inundation at 1/3, 2/3 and 1 meter levels.**
**The question is not whether the sea will rise a meter, but only how long will it take. **
**It will rise 1/2 meter in the next 100 years if the present rate does not increase! **

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## In the Albemarle Area:

**Roughly 700,000**
**acres of protected**
**lands (shaded) are **
**in jeopardy.**

**Roughly a million**
**acres of conservation**
**interest lands are in**
**jeopardy.**

**About 360,000**
**acres of land that**
**TNC helped protect**
**are in jeopardy.**

**In the Albemarle Area:**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## 2005

**2005**

**The 2x Scenario**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## 2020

**2020**
**+ 0.10 m**

**The 2x Scenario**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## 2040

**2040**
**+ 0.23 m**

**The 2x Scenario**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## 2060

**2060**
**+ 0.40 m**

**The 2x Scenario**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## 2080

**2080**
**+ 0.61 m**

**The 2x Scenario**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## 2100

**2100**
**+ 0.82 m**

**The 2x Scenario**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## 2100

**2100**
**+ 0.82 m**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## Slide 23

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## 2100

**2100**
**+ 0.82 m**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## Many of the soils east of the Suffolk Scarp through the sound-side marshes and estuaries of the Outer Banks are peat-based.

**Many of the soils east of the Suffolk Scarp through the sound-side marshes and estuaries of the Outer Banks are peat-based.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## Slide 26

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## Two hopes:

**Two hopes:**
**Corridors:  Ecosystems will migrate.**
**2. Castles:  Ecosystems will transform **
**     ****without simplification.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## Slide 28

## Albemarle Sound 

**Albemarle Sound **
**Land and Seascapes**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## CLIMATE SHIFTS

***CLIMATE SHIFTS***
***BUT  SOILS AND  TOPO***
***STAY  PUT!***

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## In a greenhouse gas scenario that is only modestly improved over the status quo, 63% of the natural habitat types in the US will simply disappear by 2100 (Saxon, Baker, Hargrove, Hoffman, Zganjar).

**In a greenhouse gas scenario that is only modestly improved over the **_**status quo**_**, 63% of the natural habitat types in the US will simply disappear by 2100 ****(Saxon, Baker, Hargrove, Hoffman, Zganjar).**
**They will be replaced by new habitat types!**
**What does our mission require us to do under this circumstance?**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## Two hopes:

**Two hopes:**
**Corridors:  Ecosystems will migrate.**
**2. Castles:  Ecosystems will transform **
**     ****without simplification.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## Beginning now, we need to build 

**Beginning now, we need to build **
**conservation programs for future, **
**as yet unknown, ecosystems!**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## How can we help that happen 

**How can we help that happen **
**on the Albemarle?**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## Adapt

**Adapt**

## SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:

**SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:**
**  ****Re-regulate or plug ditches.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:

**SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:**
**  ****Conserve all existing cypress and re-establish cypress (perhaps as plantations) wherever the land has been cleared.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:

**SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:**
**  ****Prevent hard armoring of the shore and re-establish brackish marsh wherever it is absent.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:

**SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:**
**  ****Re-establish sea grass beds and, as salinity rises, oyster reefs.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:

**SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:**
**  ****Conserve corridors from the sounds as far inland as possible, following substrates.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:

**SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:**
**  ****Conserve fully representative suite of habitats, including the least common.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:

**SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:**
**  ****Constantly evaluate the potential for invasive species to be simplifying.  Control simplifying invasive species.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:

**SOME POSSIBLE RESPONSES:**
** ****De-fragment the forested and marsh landscapes.**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## Slide 44

## Slide 45

## Slide 46

## Slide 47

## Slide 48

## “Even worse than the heat is the

**“****Even worse than the heat is the**
**complete lack of biodiversity.”**

**If we don’t ...**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.

## STAY COOL !

**STAY COOL !**
**DON’T QUIT !**

**Notes:**
Just over the divide from Annie Dillard’s Tinker Creek.