# Presentation: 454793

## Value Added Products from Vegetation and Precipitation Time-Series Data Sets in Support of Invasive Species Prediction (EOS/03-0551-0642) 

**Jeff Morisette (.2 FTE)**
*Terrestrial Information System Branch*
**Jeff Pedelty (.2 FTE)**
*Planetary Sciences Laboratory*
**Asad Ullah (.5 FTE)**
*SSAI, Inc.*
**Weijie Cai (PhD student), James Gentle (advisor)**
*George Mason University, Computational Statistics*
- NASA Program Manager’s site visit
- 30 March 2006

- This project will make a direct contribution to the paths shown as yellow text on the blue background

## USGS/NASA Invasive Species Forecasting Systems

**USGS/NASA Invasive Species Forecasting Systems**
**within NASA’s Applied Science Approach to Integrated Systems Solution **

**Earth Science**
**Models**
- Geostatistical modeling through the ISFS modeling infrastructure

**Earth Observations**
- MODIS land   products
- ETM+/ASTER/EO-1
- GIS layers
- DEM
- Soils
**USGS field plots**

**Predictions**

- High Performance Computing,Communication,& Visualization
- (through ISFS)

- Standards &Interoperability

**Observations**

**Data**

**Partnership****Area**

**Decisions**
**Support Tools**
- Operational system at NIISS
- National Parks &other national,state, and regionalagencies’invasive speciesmanagement plan

**Value & benefits****to citizens****& society**

**Limit****spread**

**Select priority****control areas**

**Monitor****control areas**

## Deliverables

- Extraction of time-series summary statistics from MODIS land products to help model invasive species habitat
- Expansion of the use of EOS data within the invasive species community by integrating new data products into the Invasive Species Forecasting System
- Making resulting products available on a sustained basis through the USGS National Institute of Invasive Species Science (NIISS) and the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII)

## Deliverables

- Extraction of time-series summary statistics from MODIS land products to help model invasive species habitat
- Expansion of the use of EOS data within the invasive species community by integrating new data products into the Invasive Species Forecasting System
- Making resulting products available on a sustained basis through the USGS National Institute of Invasive Species Science (NIISS) and the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII)

## Current Statistical Modeling Array

| Lat | lon | response | Predictor 1 | ... | Predictor N |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| X1 | Y1 | R1 | X11 | ... | Xn1 |
| X2 | Y2 | R2 | X12 | ... | Xn2 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

**Example**
**Existing Model Array:**

- Field-measured
- variable of interest

- Predictors =
***f ***(observed values, satellite data and/or anciallary data)

- DEM:
- Elevation,
- slope,
- Aspect

- Landsat NDVI

- GPS X and y coordinates
- used to extract information
- from imagery and ancillary data

- Landsat Tasseled
- Cap bands 1-3

**Current Statistical Modeling Array**

## Phenology parameters “TIMESAT”

- End of season
- Left derivative
- Right derivative
- Peak (time and value)
- Amplitude
- Length of season
- Integral over season - scaled
- Integral over season - absolute
- j) 	Base value

**Phenology parameters “TIMESAT”**

- TIMESAT - a program for analyzing time-series of satellite sensor dataPer Jonsson & Lars Eklund, Computers & Geosciences 30:833-845, 2004.

*time*

*Scaled NDVI*

** ****j**

## MODIS NDVI time series 2001-2003

**Savitzky–****Golay filter ****(blue)**

**Non-symmetric gaussian (green)**

**Harmonic functions (red)**

**MODIS NDVI ****time series 2001-2003**

**Three years of data     **

**Vegetation productivity     **

**Fourier fit ****(dark red)**

## MODIS NDVI time series 2001-2003

**Savitzky–****Golay filter ****(blue)**

**Non-symmetric gaussian (green)**

**Harmonic functions (red)**

**MODIS NDVI ****time series 2001-2003**

**Three years of data     **

**Vegetation productivity     **

**Fourier fit ****(dark red)**

## Comparing seasonality metrics Root mean square error

**R: Non sym. Gaussian ****G: Savitzky-Golav**
**B: Fourier fit**

**Mean RMSE :**
**Non-Sym. Gaussian = ****415.7**
**Savitzky-Golay = 400.2**
**Fourier = ****483.2**

**(note: histogram axes are note equal)**

## Spatial patterns TIMESAT summaries...

- Utah
- Slavitzky-Golay summaries:
- Red = timing of the senescence
- Green = steepness of greenupBlue = steepness of senescence

## Statistical modeling array will be used to assess significance of summary metrics

| Lat | lon | response | Predictor 1 | ... | Predictor N |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| X1 | Y1 | R1 | X11 | ... | Xn1 |
| X2 | Y2 | R2 | X12 | ... | Xn2 |
| ... | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |

**Example**
**Existing Model Array:**

**Field-measured **
**variable of interest**

**GPS X and y coordinates **

**Statistical modeling array will be used to assess significance of summary metrics**

**Phenology**
**Summary Layers**

**New explanatory variable**

- Beginning of season
- End of season
- Left 90% level
- Right 90% level
- Peak
- Amplitude
- Length of season
- Integral over season - scaled
- Integral over season - absolute

## Deliverables

- Extraction of time-series summary statistics from MODIS land products to help model invasive species habitat
- Expansion of the use of EOS data within the invasive species community by integrating new data products into the Invasive Species Forecasting System
- Making resulting products available on a sustained basis through the USGS National Institute of Invasive Species Science (NIISS) and the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII)

## National map of habitat suitable for tamarisk

- Morisette, J.T., C. S. Jernevich, A. Ullah, W. Cai, J.A. Pedelty, J. Gentle, T.J.Stohlgren, J.L. Schnase, A tamarisk habitat suitability map for the continental US., *Frontiers in Ecology*, February 2006.

## Outreach

- Combined NASA/USGS press release on national invasive species habitat mapping
- 13 Local News interviews
- Dozens of web postings
- Presentations to:
- Smithsonian Associates GSFC lecture series
- Bureau of Indian Affairs GSFC visit
- Minorities Striving and Pursuing Higher Degrees of Success in Earth System Science initiative GSFC site visit

## Deliverables

- Extraction of time-series summary statistics from MODIS land products to help model invasive species habitat
- Expansion of the use of EOS data within the invasive species community by integrating new data products into the Invasive Species Forecasting System
- Making resulting products available on a sustained basis through the USGS National Institute of Invasive Species Science (NIISS) and the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBII)

## Input layer: MODIS land cover

## Input layer: Range in NDVI

## Future work:Integrating Invasive species habitat mapand MODIS burnt area product within NPS

- ...inform park managers of critical areas that may need treatment against invasion.
- ...use invasive species habitat maps to identify areas within candidate prescribed burn units that are likely to be invaded.
- ...use ISFS to extrapolate post-burn ecological assessment in space and time

## Questions:

**jeff.morisette@nasa.gov**
**301-614-6676**

## Back-up

## Slide 22

## Slide 23

## Slide 24

## Habitat / Issues:

**Alaska: **DENA, GAAR, YUCH

**Habitat / Issues**:
-  Bee Keepers (Agriculture)
-  Clings to footwear (Recreation)
-  Ride river currents down stream
-  Recently disturbed areas
-  Floodplain (certain rivers)
-  Riverbeds where roads and rivers cross
-  Calcareous soils / rich loams/ clay loams / highly alkaline soils > 6.5
-  Recent fires result in germination of seeds

- “Ecologists think it’s one of the biggest threats to natural ecosystems in Alaska, a place unique when compared to the Lower 48 because of the small number of non-native plants introduced here by man.”

## Habitat / Issues: 

-  Bird Vetch (Vicia cracca)
-  Near Highways, (existing visual survey data)
-  Well drained soil / sunny position
-  Waste places
-  Disturbed soils
- “Extremely drought tolerant and cold hardy, vetch adapts to all soil textures. The vetches are extensively used as green manure for soil improvement, for hay, and in the South for winter pasture.  Its tendrils cling to everything and proceed to climb up or pull down whatever is in reach.”

**Species: **Bird vetch (*Vicia cracca*)
**Alaska: **DENA, GAAR, YUCH

## Habitat / Issues:

**Species: **Bull Thistle (*Cirsium vulgare*)
**SEQUOIA AND KINGS CANYON NATIONAL PARKS (SEKI)**

**Habitat / Issues:**
-  Foothills and Dry Meadows
-  Riparian areas
-  Clear-Cuts
-  Disturbed habitats
-  Seepage area / along a stream
-  Timber harvest
-  Edges of fresh and brackish marshes
-  Pastures over grazed lands
-  Gopher mounds
-  Near existing stands
-  Below 7,000 feet (2,120m)

- “Now found on every continent except Antarctica, Bull Thistle is common throughout the Pacific States, and it is the most common and widespread of pasture and rangeland thistles in western North America.”

## Habitat / Issues:

**Species:** Cheatgrass* (Bromus tectorum)*
**SEQUOIA AND KINGS CANYON NATIONAL PARKS (SEKI)**

**Habitat / Issues:**
-  Recently burned range / wild lands
-  Eroded areas
-  Fire frequency (3-5 year rate)
-  High levels of potassium
-  Does not flourish in areas of high canopy cover

- “Although fire is a natural part of the sagebrush grassland ecosystem, those fires usually occurred at intervals between 60-100 years (Whisenant 1989). Cheatgrass infested areas burn at a much greater frequency, every 3-5 years (Whisenant 1989). At this frequency, native shrubs and perennial grasses cannot recover and after a few wildfire cycles a cheatgrass monoculture develops...Put simply, **fire begets cheatgrass and cheatgrass begets fire** (Devine 1998).”

## Habitat / Issues: 

**Species: Dalmatian toadflax (*****Linaria genistifolia*****)**

**YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK (YELL)**
**GRAND TETON NATIONAL PARK (GRTE)**

**Habitat / Issues:**
-  Roadsides
-  Sandy / Gravely soils
-  Cultivated fields
-  Range lands / clear cuts
-  Below 2,800 meters (9,2000 ft)
-  Recently burned areas

- “Dalmatian toadflax reproduces by seed and vegetative propagation. Once established, high seed production and the ability for vegetative reproduction allow for rapid spread and high persistence (Saner* et al. *1995)... The large, deep, root systems of both species protect them from burning. In fact, areas that have been recently disturbed by fire are susceptible to increased toadflax infestation. ”

## Habitat / Issues:

**Habitat / Issues:**
-  Prairies, grasslands, riparian areas
-  Positively correlated with previous year precipitation
-  Barrens, fields, disturbed areas
-  Wet areas stream banks, sedge meadows

**Species: **Canada Thistle (*Cirsium arvense*)

**YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK (YELL)**
**GRAND TETON NATIONAL PARK (GRTE)**

*“**Cirsium arvense* is invasive in prairies and other grasslands in the midwest and Great Plains and in riparian areas in the intermountain west. It is particularly troublesome in the northwest and north-central states, and in southern Canada (Moore 1975).”