# Presentation: 057618

## Since November...Agricultural Exports Are Raised $3 Billion to $59 BillionImports Are Raised $2 Billion to a Record $58 BillionAgTrade Surplus at $1 Billion

**FY 2005 Export Forecasts for**
**Ag, Fishery & Solid Wood Products**

- USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
- was released on February 24, 2004 at 9am EST
- Prepared by Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

## U.S. Agricultural Trade

**U.S. Agricultural Trade**

***Exports***

***Imports***

***Trade Balance   ***

- In 2005, record production lowers bulk commodity prices and export value, but partially offset by record horticultural, pork & dairy exports.           Import value continues rapid rise on strong demand and weak dollar.

**58.0**

- Record

**59.0**

**62.3**

**1.0**

## Key Changes in the 2005 Export Forecast

|  | 
Final
FY 2004 | Nov
FY ‘05
For. | Feb
FY ‘05
For. | 

Chg | 

Main Reasons |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Hort. Products ($ Bil) | 13.26 | 13.8 | 14.5 | +0.7 | (+)price                                   weak dollar - strong demand |
| Dairy Products ($ Bil) | 1.27 | 1.3 | 1.7 | +0.4 | (+)volume (esp. NFDM)           weak dollar - strong demand |
| Soybeans ($ Bil) | 7.46 | 5.7 | 6.1 | +0.4 | (+)price – strong demand |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Corn (mmt) | 47.58 | 52.0 | 48.0 | -4.0 | (+)global cgrain prod/Argentina |

**Key Changes in the 2005 Export Forecast**

***Commodies Exported***

- #1 Canada +$500 million to $10.2 billion
- #2 Japan unchanged at $7.7 billion
- #3 Mexico +$500 million to $8.5 billion (overtakes Japan)
- #4 EU-25 +$500 million to $7 billion
- #5 China unchanged at $4.6 billion
-  **W Hemisphere exceeds Asia by $2.9 billion**

***US AgExports to Top 5 Markets***

## Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

**Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products**

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast:    Unchanged at $15.1 Billion

- Includes corn gluten feed/meal

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast
*Upside Developments*
-  Continued strong demand for high-quality wheat
-  Slightly less competition from EU in wheat markets
*Downside Developments*
-  Corn exports are struggling due to record global coarse grain supplies and fierce competition from Argentina
-  Sorghum exports slip due to reduced sales to Mexico
*Wild Cards*
-  Level of China’s corn exports and wheat imports
-  Competition from Southern Hemisphere’s new crop

## Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

**Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products**

- Excludes corn gluten feed/meal

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast:     $1.2 Billion to $10.0 Billion

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast
*Upside Developments*
-  Higher soybean export unit values due to stronger than expected demand early in the year
-  Strong oilseed global demand, esp. from China
-  Weaker dollar boosts exports of processed oilseed products
*Downside Developments*
-  Record South American production forecast
*Wild Cards*
-  None

## Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters

**Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters**

- Note:  FY ’04 and prior years based on U.S Census data; FY ’05 forecast based on WASDE MY forecast.

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast:     $300 Million to $3.4 Billion

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast
*Upside Developments*
-  Record U.S. crop revised upward
-  Stronger cotton use in China only partly offset by deceases in other markets
-  Higher volume and somewhat stronger unit value
*Downside Developments*
-  Larger crops in India and Pakistan add to global stocks and decrease import demand
*Wild Cards*
-  China’s stock levels

## Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry

**Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry**

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast:     $700 Million to $11.5 Billion

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast
*Upside Developments*
-  Pork export value/vols reach new records due to strong demand from Japan, Mexico, Russia and Canada
-  Continued strong growth in dairy export sales, esp. for non-fat dry milk powder and cheese
- Steady recovery in beef exports
*Downside Developments*
-  Lower prices for cattle hides lower export value
*Wild Cards*
-  Timing of the lifting of BSE bans: currently assume no resumption of beef trade to Japan & Korea – these mkts could add up to $2 bil/year if reopened

## Export Outlook for Horticultural Products

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast:     $700 Million to $14.5 Billion

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast
*Upside Developments*
-  Generally higher prices raise export value; little change in volumes
-  Higher prices result from weaker dollar which shifts foreign demand toward U.S. suppliers
-  Very strong first quarter for wine, essential oils, deciduous fruits, & vegetables; gains for tree nuts continue
*Downside Developments*
-  None
*Wild Cards*
-  U.S. crop sizes

- Record

## Export Outlook for Fishery Products

**Export Outlook for Fishery Products**

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast:      $100 Million to $3.6 Billion

_***Trade Balance***_
**The annual trade deficit in fishery products is $7.5 billion.**

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast
*Upside Developments*
-  The forecast for the ‘05 Sockeye salmon harvest is down only 4% from a good ‘04 harvest.  The Pink salmon harvest is expected to rise 14%
-  Surimi exports to Japan and Korea are up due to higher prices and increased demand for quality product
*Downside Developments*
-  King crab exports are lower due to strong U.S. demand and larger foreign stocks
*Wild Cards*
-  U.S. harvest size for lobster, salmon, and other species

- Record

***Forecasts for Fishery Products are not official USDA estimates.***

## Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products

**Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products**

***Forecasts for Solid Wood Products are not official USDA estimates.***

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast:     $200 Million to $5.8 Billion

_***Trade Balance***_
**The FY 2004 wood products trade deficit was $16.5 billion.**

- Revised FY 2005 Forecast
*Upside Developments*
-  U.S. antidumping duties on Chinese furniture show no sign of slowing China’s demand for U.S. hardwoods
-  Exports to Canada at record level due to re-export demand created by U.S. economy and housing market
*Downside Developments*
-  Softwood exports to EU and Japan decline due to increased production in the EU and Canada
*Wild Cards*
-  China’s continued economic growth which fuels its domestic furniture  demand