# Presentation: 194314

## Gridded TAF Generation and the RLX Enhanced Short-Term Forecasting Program 

*Chris Leonardi*
-  *ER Sub-Regional Aviation Conference**	**	**May 24, 2006*

## State of the art West Virginia weather forecasting!

## Outline

- Enhanced Short Term Forecasting
- Polices/procedures/philosophy
- Science/models
- Gridded aviation forecasting
- What, when, why, and how
- Pros/cons and lessons learned
- Stats
- Ongoing work

##  12+ Hour, High Detail, Deterministic, Hourly Grids

-  12+ Hour, High Detail, Deterministic, Hourly Grids
-  ***Focus off text onto meteorology***
-  Full Automation of selected text products
-  AFM, PFM, SFP, FWF
-  90% Automation “primary” text products
-  ZFP, NWR ZFP, NOW
-  Generated by schedule
-  Forecaster/HMT reviews and sends

##  ZFP

-  ZFP
-  4 times/day
-  Low detail
-  One County One Zone
-  Standard 39 zones (out of 49)
-  Run manually if deadline is missed or update desired

##  NWR ZFP

-  NWR ZFP
-  Every 3HRs
-  3 HR detail first 12 hours
-  6 hour detail period 2 and 3
-  12 hour detail beyond period 3
-  Maximum of 2 groups
-  NOW
-  One County One Zone, 12 hr forecast
-  3 hour detail from county perspective

##  Aviation incorporated in forecast process

-  Aviation incorporated in forecast process
-  Aviation grids part of the short term forecasters suite
-  Aviation grids (cloud height, visibility and ceiling) produced every 6 hours out to 30 hours
-  Set of TAF’s generated by AVNFPS from grids for each initial TAF release
-  Individual TAF’s monitored and amended by hand as needed

##  Customers have good detail for decision making

-  Customers have good detail for decision making
-  A better warning service/advance notice in both space and time of specific threat areas
-  With automation of text, more time to focus on, and provide, detail in the forecast
-  Skill/verification improves with more focus on detail in short term
-  Cost/Benefit ratio high with high detail forecasts
-  Focus on the area in the forecast process where the technology and availability of the human/forecast resources of the NWS can enhance the information to the private sector for their use.
-  Additional aviation services available with aviation grids

- PROS

##  While a forecaster is working in a continual update/high detail mode, they are basically removed from other activities

- CONS

-  While a forecaster is working in a continual update/high detail mode, they are basically removed from other activities
-  With high activity in the short term, there may be some detachment with the weather expected in the long term
-  Collaboration more difficult in a “continually” updating forecast situation
-  Forecasters rely more heavily on the observational/forecast data as well as technology.  Failure becomes more critical
-  Additional and collateral duties (ie training and focal point work) can not be done while working an enhanced short term operation

## SCIENCEForShort Term

*** MESONET**
**	****CAPTURED ALL AVAILABLE DATA**
**	****ADDED RIDGETOP SITE AT NWR**
**	****COORDINATED WV IFLOWS MESONET**
**	****	****2 MET SENSOR SYSTEMS/COUNTY**
**	****EXPANDED LOCAL LAPS DOMAIN**
**	****	****FOR IMPROVED LOCAL MODELING**
**	****INCREASED LAPS RESOLUTION - 5KM**

## SCIENCEForShort Term

*** LOCAL SHORT RANGE MODELS/FCSTS**
**	***** WSETA FORECAST EVERY 6 HOURS**
**	****	****HOURLY OUT 18 HR, 5KM RESOLUTION**
**	***** WRF FORECAST EVERY 3 HOURS**
**	****	****HOURLY OUT 24 HR, 5KM RESOLUTION**
**	****	****HIGH LOW LEVEL LAYER RESOLUTION**
**	****	****RUNS ON BEOWULF CLUSTER **
**	****	****INCLUDE PBZ IN DOMAIN**
**	****	****“****HOT START” INITIALIZING ON LAPS**
**	****	****EVERY 2 HOURS IN SEVERE WX**

## SCIENCEForShort Term

**OTHER OPERATIONAL SHORT RANGE MODELS**
** ****LAMP HOURLY FORECASTS EVERY 3 HR**
** ****RUC**
** ****PARTICIPATING WITH MDL TESTING OF NEW MAV BASED LAMP (LAV)**
** ****NCAR AVIATION FORECAST GRIDS (NCV)**
** ****ALL MODEL DATA AVAILABLE IN GFE**
** ****GFE 2.5 KM**

## Y - Short Term               Z - Long Term

**Y - Short Term               Z - Long Term**
**	****	****	****   ****Winter**
**H - Short Term****	****	****	**
**J - Extended/Extra**
**K - “Mid Term”**
**	****	****	****  ****Summer**
**H - Short Term**
**J - Extended then “Mid Term”**
**P – Assist with forecast/Extra/Convection**
**Q - Short Term****	****	****	**

**10 forecasters**
**“****Periods, not Desks”**

## Percent of time

**Percent of time**
**First Period Forecast**
**Within +- 3 Degrees**

## Why Aviation Grids?

- FAA wants increase in number of TAF locations – grid generation could streamline process
- Point-and-click terminal/route forecasts
- Facilitate collaboration of aviation parameters
- Graphical area service in space and time to the centers

## Slide 16

## Point-based aviation forecasts anywhere in CWA

## The new grids

- PredHgt – “conditional ceiling height” in hundreds of feet (0-250)
- Ceiling if Sky ≥ 57%, height of predominant cloud layer otherwise
- Collaboration grid...also used with Sky to construct CigHgt grid for web display
- Vsby – visibility in miles (0-10)
- CigHgt – ceiling height (in feet)
- Ceiling height if sky _>_ 57%, otherwise no ceiling
- Generated as last step (totally dependent on Sky/PredHgt
- _Source of web graphic_

## Slide 19

## Potential pitfalls

- Smoothing out of local effects in a gridded database
- Can be mitigated by improved smart tools, e.g. AviationFmFog, elevation-dependent tools
- Creation of new edit areas (rivers, individual TAF locations)
- Interpolation problems with PredHgt/Vsby
- Creative solutions can be found (NoBasesBetween, Extrapolate, use of edit area query)
- Tools that work over a time range (AviationFogTimer)

## Slide 21

## General philosophy

- Be deterministic!  Focus on what WILL be, not what COULD be
- TEMPOs (first 12 hours only) should be used for truly varying conditions, not to cover all possibilities
- Initial 12 hours are the most important and deserve the most attention/scrutiny
- 12-24 hours should capture major trends but not necessarily be as detailed (slosh it!)

## AvnFPS modifications

- Enable ingest of all aviation-relevant grids
- PredHgt, Sky, Vsby, Wx, Wind, WindGust
- Enable TAF formatting of gridded elements
- Cig/vis related TEMPOs, wind shear need to be added by hand
- Some local tweaks of grouping logic (grp_taf.cfg)

## Gridded TAF limitations

- Since we have only one grid for each element...
- No TEMPOs for non-Wx related ceiling/visibility (yet!)
- Limited TEMPOs for Wx (PoP-based only)
- Only one cloud layer
- TAF formatting itself is not perfect
- Generation process a bit cumbersome (copy/paste)...a bit less of this in 3.2

## Lessons Learned

- New paradigm tough to adjust to
- Areal thinking instead of point thinking
- Editing/interpolating grids can be frustrating
- Some resistance from forecasting staff
- Few real gridded guidance tools...although some are just getting going
- RUC/NAM grids for cig/vsby recently available
- NCAR NCV grids
- Verification performance may initially drop

## Aviation POD IFR

- First fully operational month November ‘05

***Goal 0.47***

## Aviation FAR IFR

- First fully operational month November ‘05

***Goal 0.65***

## Aviation POD vs FAR for IFR

- First fully operational month November ‘05

**POD Goal**

**FAR Goal **

## March/April stats

- March ’06 - POD 0.37, FAR 0.63 in ’06
- March ’05 - POD 0.40, FAR 0.60 in ’05
- Comparable, but worse
- April...stats incomplete but not good
- What went wrong???
- Different weather regime (winter vs. summer)
- Tools we have work better in winter scenarios
***BUT...we are working on this!***

## Coming soon...

- TEMPO grids!
- First 6 hours only (PredHgtTempo, VsbyTempo)
- Meant to capture short-lived precip (especially convection)
- Automated generation where possible based on model data or forecaster updated grids
- Ingested into AvnFPS for TAFs

## New tools!

- Improved smart tools
- Extrapolate – move features across domain
- LAPS radar ingest
- PoPs from WRF and consensus PoP from WRF/RUC/WsETA
- New model data
- Cig/vis data from RUC13
- Additional LAV runs (09Z, 21Z now, 03Z soon)
- Local statistical analysis (MOS-type approach)

## Severe Potential Grids

- Short-term convective threat grid (none, low, medium, high) based on model parameters

## AvnFPS 3.2 changes

## Questions?