# Presentation: 247788

## Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Flood Inundation MapsInterdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 5, 2008

***Doug Marcy***
***NOAA Coastal Services Center***
***National Weather Service***
***Charleston, SC ***
***Glenn Austin, Victor Hom, Tom Graziano (NWS OCWWS HSD)***

## Presentation Outline

*** ******Background and Impetus for Inundation Mapping Effort***
*** ******Demonstration Projects and Future Plans***
*** ******Partnering to Better Communicate Flood Risk ***

## Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Objectives

***More precise forecasts at many time-scales***
***Information to make risk based decisions***
***Easy product access***
***Visually oriented products***

**Notes:**
What is the current state of Ocean Governance?

There is no single, comprehensive national ocean governance framework.

What exists now is a fragmented and sectoral management structure;  That is, there are many individual pieces of legislation focusing on single sector management:

For Example:
- oil and gas development:  regulated by the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, under the jurisdiction of the Minerals Management Service
...in that same area of the continental shelf, 
- fisheries are regulated by the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, under the jurisdiction of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Also,
- water quality is managed by EPA through the Clean Water Act legislation
- protecting endangered species by NOAA and USFWS through the ESA
Waste disposal Ocean Dumping Act and the Clean Water Act, regulated by EPA and US Army Corps of Engineers

There are many levels of management, international, national and state, and within agencies at each of these levels.  This fragmented structure leads to gaps and overlaps in the legislation and management and this could potentially lead to conflicts. 

## Enhancing the Communication of Flood RiskBackground

- •	**For over 25 years, the NWS has utilized a *****3-tier, impact based, flood severity****** scale***** with the categories ****minor****, ****moderate****, and ****major**** flooding**
**For each NWS river forecast location, flood stage and the stage associated with each of the NWS flood severity categories are established in cooperation with local **
**   ****public officials**

**NCC049-107-070200- **
**/O.NEW.KMHX.FL.W.0001.010407T1300Z-000000T0000Z/ /KINN7.1.ER.010407T1300Z.010412T0100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ **
**200 PM EDT FRI APR 6 2001 **
**THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A **
** ****FLOOD WARNING FOR NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON **
** ****FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE**
** ****AT 9 AM EDT FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS... 13.5 FEET**
** ****MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST * FLOOD STAGE IS...14.0 FEET**** **
** ****FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE WILL BE REACHED AT 900 AM SATURDAY. MAXIMUM STAGE WILL BE 15.0 FEET AT 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE RIVER MAY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. THE EXACT FLOOD DURATION IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT DUE TO THE VERY SLOW RISE AND FALL TIMES FOR THIS RIVER. **
** ****AT 14 FEET...WATER WILL BEGIN TO OVERFLOW INTO LOWLANDS ADJACENT TO THE NEUSE RIVER. $$**** **

**http://www.weather.gov/ahps/**

## Enhancing the Communication of Flood RiskRecent Events

**•****	****The Inland Flood Forecasting and Warning System Act of 2002, Pub. Law No. 107-253**
** ****Championed by Representative Bob Etheridge (2****nd**** District NC)**
** ****Authorizes NOAA to conduct activities to improve inland flood forecasting, develop a new flood warning index, train and educate officials regarding improved forecasting techniques and the inland flood warning index**

***Enhancing the Communication of Flood Risk******Recent Events***

**Notes:**
Rep Etheridge was interested in developing a new flood severity index similar in concept to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.  The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity as quantified by wind speed.  Given the impacts of floods vary locally, a Saffir-Simpson scale type scale, would not be appropriate for conveying the severity/risk associated with flooding.  

The ACSI is the University of Michigan’s patented methodology that turns survey data into predictive and actionable information for resource allocation and other decision-making.  In 1999, the President's Management Council selected the ACSI to be the standard for measuring satisfaction with the activities of the U.S. Government.  Since then, the ACSI has been embraced by every Department of the Federal Government as the primary benchmark of citizen satisfaction and supports NOAA’s continuing mission requirement of measuring citizen satisfaction. 

## Enhancing the Communication of Flood RiskRecent Events

**Since 2002, NWS has conducted extensive outreach to objectively determine whether our current flood severity index satisfies user needs**
**Partnered with Claes Fornell International (CFI) Group to survey users of NOAA’s hydrologic  information via the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI)***** ***
**Conducted user forums with State and Local Officials in North Carolina**
**Partnered with David Ford Consulting Engineers, Inc to conduct a national survey of emergency managers**
**Conducted additional local and regional user outreach**

***Enhancing the Communication of Flood Risk******Recent Events***

**Notes:**
Rep Etheridge was interested in developing a new flood severity index similar in concept to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.  The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity as quantified by wind speed.  Given the impacts of floods vary locally, a Saffir-Simpson scale type scale, would not be appropriate for conveying the severity/risk associated with flooding.  

The ACSI is the University of Michigan’s patented methodology that turns survey data into predictive and actionable information for resource allocation and other decision-making.  In 1999, the President's Management Council selected the ACSI to be the standard for measuring satisfaction with the activities of the U.S. Government.  Since then, the ACSI has been embraced by every Department of the Federal Government as the primary benchmark of citizen satisfaction and supports NOAA’s continuing mission requirement of measuring citizen satisfaction. 

## Customers are telling us they.... 
are familiar with NWS flood severity categories
find them useful
do not want changes to the existing flood severity indices
need communication of flood risk to be enhanced by use of inundation graphics (maps)

**are familiar with NWS flood severity categories**
**find them useful**
**do not want changes to the existing flood severity indices**
**need communication of flood risk to be enhanced by use of ****inundation graphics (maps)**

***Enhancing the Communication of Flood Risk******Flood Category Evaluation***

## 
"The problem for our emergency responders during flooding is that we rush over our floodplain maps but they are basically a 100 year storm event that rarely informs the expected flooding from a particular storm event." 

Floodplain Manager 
Baltimore Area 

***"The problem for our emergency responders during flooding is that we rush over our floodplain maps but they are basically a 100 year storm event that rarely informs the expected flooding from a particular storm event." ***
***Floodplain Manager ***
***Baltimore Area ***

***Enhancing the Communication of Flood Risk******Flood Category Evaluation***

## Real-Time Flood Forecast Mapping Tar River Basin, NC

**Goal**** – *****To provide real-time flood inundation maps to emergency managers during flood events.***
** ****Used partnered data (LIDAR Topo  Engineering Data) from FEMA and NC Floodplain Mapping Program**
** ****Built unsteady hydraulic model for 73 miles of Tar River**
** ****Mapped flood forecasts in a GIS and presented results via the Web **
** ****SERFC used as flood forecast tool during Hurricane Isabel – Sept. 2003**

**Notes:**
The Tar River Basin was selected as the pilot site as a result of the significant flood damage that occurred during Hurricane Floyd.  Since then, highly accurate digitak elevation data were collected by the state of NC.  Using these data, along with the hydrologic model that was created in partnership with the Weather Service, we were able to create flood forecast models for the entire basin.  Also, these models and forecasts used to be presented in long, difficult to read text files.  We were able to develop a mechanism to present these data in a GIS and simplify the output so that both could be presented quickly over the Internet.  

While the tool is completed and functions well, the outputs of the model are still being tested by the Weather Service.

Animation shows example flooding from Hurricane Floyd, note the timestamp on the maps changes as flood
waters rise.  Through the use of a dynamic hydraulic routing model, we are able to forecast the entire reach of river rather than 
just the forecast points. Rather than seeing a text file of forecast stage and times, users get areal views of the forecast innundation overlaid on traditional GIS layers. 

## Future of Flood Mapping – Where We Want to Be?

**  ****Map Libraries to show flood impacts for range of river stages**
**  ****Collaborate with FEMA Map Modernization **
**  **_***GOAL – Larger # of Forecast Points Mapped***_

***Future of Flood Mapping – Where We Want to Be?***

##  Graphical Flood Impact Information 

**Partnering with NC Floodplain Mapping Program Office, FEMA, and USGS  to develop prototype user-requested graphics to better convey flood threat**

***Neuse River at ***
***Goldsboro, NC***

**Notes:**
Sample graphical e19 

## Methods and Standards for NWS Flood Severity Inundation Maps

***Created for NWS by Watershed Concepts via EarthData International and being created as federal guidance***
***Minimum standards for mapping topographic and base data***
***Vertical Datums***
***Hydraulic modeling methods***
***Inundation map data standards***
***Mapping methods***
***Map scales and layout***
***Consistent with FEMA DFIRM standards***
***Pilot mapping study (Goldsboro, NC)***

## Demonstration Projects and Future Plans

***Provided Web Access to 17 North Carolina Flood Inundation Map Libraries at NWS forecast points in October 2007***
*http://www.weather.gov/ahps/inundation.php*
***Hurricane Supplemental Funds are being used to create an additional 35 libraries in 4 Gulf Coast States (FY08)***
**Topographic and engineering data inventory for future mapping at 526 points**
**Flood inundation map libraries to be delivered via the AHPS web pages **

## Floods...a National Issue

**Floods...a National Issue**

***Partnering to Communicate Flood Risk***

## NOAA-FEMA Collaboration (& other agencies)

** ****Both agencies convey flood risk**
**FEMA for regulatory/legal insurance purposes to reduce damage costs**
**NOAA/NWS for protection of life and property**
**Opportunity for educating users about FEMA and NOAA flood map products and how they should be used**
**Decision-makers need additional/integrated inundation maps/information to most effectively mitigate the impacts of floods**
**Integrate NOAA/NWS inundation library guidelines with FEMA/FIS guidelines**
**Potentially forming interagency working group on risk mapping – Galloway (USGS, USACE, FEMA, NOAA, maybe others)**

## Partnering to Reduce Costs and Improve Efficiency

**Cost per county average for updating FIS and maps: **** ~300 - 400 K****  **
**Additional cost to complete one inundation map library as part of the FIS: ****5 – 6 K   (~1-2% cost increase)**
**Cost doubles and time increases if inundation map library is created after FIS is completed: ****11 - 12K**
**Developing inundation libraries in conjunction with FIS yields significant user benefit for small incremental cost.**

**Efficiency goes up**

**Costs go down**

## Summary

***Summary***

***For NWS river forecast locations.....***
***Enhance the communication of flood risk by a developing a library of inundation maps and linking them with observed/forecast river stages***
***Each library will include NWS flood severity categories and FEMA flood frequency events***

## Flood Inundation Mapping Weather Channel Video

## AHPS Flood Inundation Mapping

- _[http://www.weather.gov/ahps/inundation.php](http://www.weather.gov/ahps/inundation.php)_
***Questions?***