# Presentation: 925988

## Assessment of coral reef ecosystemsusing EOS platformsandnumerical ocean circulation models

- S. Andréfouët, F. Muller-Karger, ***C.S. Moses***, L. Wang,
- C. Hu, C. Steinberg, J. Sheng, B. Hatcher, S. Ouillon, and
- P. Douillet, D. Palandro
*NASA Joint Workshop on Biodiversity*
*August 21-25, 2006, College Park, MD*

## Biodiversity of Coral Reefs

- Reefs fringe ~15% of world’s coastlines
- Functional “loss” of coral reef area:
- ~600,000 km2 (1978)...~108,000 (2006)
- High biodiversity
- >2,000 reef fishes
- >800 species of corals
- ~7% of corals and 27% of fish are endemic
*Roberts, et al., 2002*
- ~58% are threatened by human activities
*Ginsburg, et al., 1994*
- 14-30% reef loss by 2050 due to climate variability
*Kleypas, et al.,* 1999

## Scale of Reef Science

- Organism (coral colony)

- Community

- Island and reef
- geomorphology

- Global coral reef distribution

## Coral Reef Remote Sensing

- Millennium Global Coral Reef Map: L7/ETM+
- Reef mapping
- Geomorphology...[communities, species]
- Change detection
- Interdisciplinary Study (IDS)
- Model Inputs:
- Climatology of land, ocean and weather conditions around reefs
- Understanding forcing of local water masses, circulation, temperature, sediments, etc.
- Model Outputs:
- Forecasting biodiversity dynamics
- Connectivity, response to climate change

**Notes:**
Emphasize that RS is used to enhance model performance at each step

## Millennium Global Coral Reef Map

- http://imars.usf.edu/corals/maps/reef_count.html

## Millennium Map: Puerto Rico

- Puerto-Rico SW
- La Parguera

- Puerto-Rico SE
-      Vieques

## Global Reef Area

- Previously:
- ~255,000 km2
- Spalding and Grenfell (1997)
- Millennium/L7:
- ~108,000 km2
- Andréfouët et al. (2006)

## Change Detection on Reefs

**Landsat 7 ETM+**

**IKONOS**

- Carysfort Reef, Florida Keys

- (Palandro, et al, in prep)

## Change Detection on Reefs

- 1984

- 1994

- 2002

- (Palandro, et al, in prep)

## USF/IMaRS IDS: Regions

- Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System
- Conservation priority (World Heritage site)
- Almost no data for model validation
- Larval transport and MPA decision support
- New Caledonia
- Large existing *in situ* data array
- High sedimentation and transport
- Hydro-sedimentary model improvements
- Great Barrier Reef
- Extensive previous work (World Heritage site)
- Improved bleaching model
- Using L7 to enhance spatial resolution and bathymetry

## Simulated Transport: MBRS

- Tang, et al (2006) *JGR*

## MBRS Model Validation

**3 Nov 1998**

**14 Nov 1998**

- Model

- Model

- SeaWiFS

- SeaWiFS

## Decision-support models

- Beech, et al, in prep.

- Domain: 943 x 25 km2 management planning units
- 23,575 km2 total
- Landsat-7 ETM
- Quantify 10 conservation features
- 27,225 pixels/unit

**Notes:**
We extended the statistical analysis to generate a graphical decision-support tool that shows the results of the optimization as a spatial probability distribution of MPA optimality. The tool allows managers to make informed trade-offs in choosing specific areas for protection while still maintaining overall conservation goals.

CONCLUDE: The use of remotely sensed data has greatly enhanced the value of a statistical management decision support tool for coral reef ecosystems.

## Sediment Transport Model

## Sediment Model Validation

- Model
- Tides & Trade Winds (8 m/s)

- Percent Mud
- (Debenay, et al., 1987)

## Models to Predict Bleaching

- SST patterns correlate well with observed bleaching
- Problem:
- SST patterns are highly variable
- Approach:
- Sub-reef scale circulation models based on bathymetry
- Combining *in situ* and remote sensing data

## Next Steps

- Develop applications
- Conservation biology / zonation
- Real-time sedimentation assessment
- Real-time bleaching assessments
- LDCM recommendations
- Minor modifications can make a revolution in coastal biodiversity research and coastal zone management:
- At least one narrow (20 nm), sensitive blue-green band (~443 nm)
- But ideally: blue, blue-green, green and red bands (~20 nm wide, 443, 490, 550, 670)
- Increase revisit time
- Lower costs of data access for U.S. investigators

## Slide 18

## Landsat 7 ETM Bathymetry