# Presentation: 096732

## Synthesis of Day 1 and Discussion Issues for Work Groups  

## Summary for Each Topic

- What is Known
- Issues for Work Group Discussion
- Presented by Session/Work Group Chairs

## Work Group Tasks 

- Identify what are the most important analytic issues for each topic
- Prioritize issues from the summary to follow (and any refinements from this morning’s discussion) for further work group discussion
- For each priority issue, answer 3 questions
- What do we currently know?
- What don’t we know?
- What analysis is needed?

## Each Work Group Encouraged to  Consider 2 Cross-Cutting Issues

- What do we need to know to better understand the current and future energy context and its implications for the role of RE in the four strategic areas
- What do we need to know to better define a new renewable energy paradigm?

## Or Stated More Provocatively  

- What information is required to gain broad acceptance in the U.S. for a “Renewable Energy Strategic Imperative” ?
- Where renewable energy is treated as a primary pathway to simultaneously achieve U.S. economic, environmental, energy security, environmental, and development interests

## Key Issues Influencing Renewable Energy Paradigm

- Future fossil fuel supply constraints
- Decentralization of political and energy systems
- Shift in $ flow from ODA to FDI
- Focus on energy service delivery and  applications
- Need to consider full energy commodity chain and energy value to different consumers
- Adopting a multi-disciplinary approach
- Role of public education
- Urban migration

## Urban Migration

- Economic theory in 1960’s recommended urban migration!
- Huge infrastructure and environmental costs of urban migration
- Minimal direct environmental benefits of rural electrification
- Terrorists are dislocated individuals
- Rural electrification:
- Promotes national integration
- Preserves indigenous communities
- Do unavailable services drive migration?
- Education, health care, income opportunities
- Can off-grid electrification reduce urban on-grid growth?
- Can we quantify the cost of urban migration?
- Why have developed countries always subsidized rural areas?
- Will rural electrification promote distributed governance?

## Markets – What is Known

- Global Demand for RE Increasing (9.25%/yr)
- Doubling of RE global business by 2013
- 75% of power demand outside N. America
- Wind technology is bulk of RE growth, with significant small hydro, biomass, PV and geothermal growth
- Key Market Drivers
- Technology cost reductions
- Government policies (vary by country/region)
- Energy security
- Energy poverty
- Uncertainty of fossil fuel price and supply
- Environment/climate change and air quality
- Local jobs/local development

## Markets – What is Known 

- Increasing Numbers of Corporate Players
- most are foreign; many have U.S. operations
- Are investing in technology - current generation
- Not just about power-also heating, cooling, cooking, transport
- Major applications: productive, social and consumptive
- Issues beyond technology, also institutional, policy, awareness, capacity
- Strong government policies and incentives would be needed to accelerate RE use

## Analytic Needs

- Quantification of RE benefits, applications, costs
- Site specific resource assessments, market studies, options analysis, modeling
- Policy/regulatory impact assessments
- Info on viable business models/approaches
- Outreach to policy makers, regulators, consumers, financiers (including what competitors are doing)
- Info on complementarity with other technologies
- Generation/infrastructure limitations

## Strategic Considerations

- Prioritize data/analysis needs with limited $
- Inventory organizations doing work in similar areas
- Determine real gaps/needs
- Identify interested organizations/audience
- Link to on-going partnerships (GVEP, EU)
- Leverage funding from other sources
- Identify/partner with innovators, leaders, organizations (energy, non-energy)

## Markets – Discussion Issues 

- What are the most promising RE export markets for the U.S.?
- How do RE exports benefit the U.S.?
- What are limits to RE supply expansion?
- What policies will be most effective in positioning RE to meet global demand?
- How do we improve availability of site specific data, models, and market studies?
- What other new and refinements to current methods and tools are required to to better understand and communicate RE market benefits?

## Environmental – What is Known

- Climate Change
- Massive change is needed to stabilize GHG emissions
- One probable GHG stabilization scenario relies on huge RE deployment
- Air Quality
- Fossil fuel technologies cause substantial long-range transport of pollutants to the U.S.
- Significant international deployment of RE will reduce this burden and costs of attainment of U.S. AQ goals

## Environmental – What is Known 

- Air Quality (continued)
- There are high health costs from air pollution caused by fossil fuel combustion and RE can provide significant, quantifiable global health benefits
- Outdoor air pollution from fossil fuels and other sources results in at least 800,000 premature deaths/yr and indoor air results in at least 1.6M premature deaths/yr and morbidity effects (unequally distributed)
- Need to focus on RE to reduce indoor air pollution, where exposure is often 10-100 times regulatory levels
- Limited current RE use & consideration in AQ management decisions
- RE can achieve simultaneous multi-pollutant reductions
- RE can improve access to clean water

## Environmental – Issues 

- What are the full (environmental and other) benefits and costs of RE?
- What are relative environmental and other costs & benefits of overseas RE development vs. domestic RE development?
- What are the most important environmental issues that RE can help address?
- How can environmental issues more effectively influence market decisions?

## Environmental – Issues 

- Climate Change
- For what sectors and countries/regions can RE most reduce GHG emissions?
- How can we better determine and capture the value of RE in reducing GHG emissions?
- What will it take to achieve large scale deployment of RE needed to stabilize GHG emissions?

## Environmental – Issues 

- Air Quality
- For what sectors and geographic areas can RE play biggest role in air quality improvement?
- How can we better determine and capture the value of RE in reducing air quality emissions?
- What air pollution emissions reductions can be achieved from RE and what sources will they displace?
- What are the health impacts of alternative RE technologies and policies relative to other options?

## Energy Security – What is Known

- RE may be able to reduce global reliance on and conflicts over access to petroleum and natural gas
- Systemic poverty and lack of middle class are contributing causes for terrorism
- Energy access (e.g. through RE) is a critical enabler in addressing these causes.
- Limited access to clean water is highly destabilizing and affects U.S. security

## Energy Security – Issues

- In what countries and regions and for what sectors can RE make significant contributions to energy self reliance?
- What key roles can RE can play in econ. development, stability and globalization?
- Can we quantify the connections between energy access and terrorism and the contribution RE can make to mitigating such causes?
- Can we quantify the contributions  RE can make to clean water access?
- What key roles can RE play in disaster relief?
- Can we quantify the role of renewable energy in creating a stabilizing “middle class?”
- Can we quantify the impact RE can have on world oil and gas prices through reduced demand?

## Development – What is Known

- Access to even small amounts of modern energy can have big development impact
- Rural energy services can improve socio-economic development which can decrease the impetus for urban migration
- RE can be best choice for rural energy services
- Economic development impacts
- RE can be used for productive uses for income generation in remote, rural areas
- FDI flows exceed ODA, therefore important to leverage and stimulate private sector investment
- Need for Market Facilitation Organizations
- Strong RE / agricultural symbiosis (RE uses for food production – energy crop farmers)

## Development – What is Known

- Political impacts
- Decentralization of energy systems is occurring in tandem with decentralization of political power
- Empowering local communities and provide flexibility and resilience
- Good governance is key to development
- Social impacts
- Public health – RE can power health clinics, access to clean water, and food security
- Education, information, and communication services through power for schools and internet access
- Modern energy access can improve quality of life for women in rural areas

## Development - Issues

- What are the economic development benefits associated with RE in rural areas?
- What strategies will enhance economic development from RE?
- How does RE compare to other energy options in providing development benefits?
- For what applications and in what regions, can RE make biggest development impact?
- What is the relationship between decentralization of political power and energy systems?
- What strategies for enhancing contribution of RE to development will be most effective in light of decentralized political power and energy systems?
- Is there a symbiotic relationship between distributed generation and distributed government?

## Development - Issues

- Social development
- How can the benefits of RE to health, education, water, agriculture, communications, gender issues be valued?
- What steps are required to allow RE to make a larger contribution to development and how do we integrate international RE and development programs?
- Can the benefit to the U.S. attributable to development through RE be quantified? How?
- How can we enhance public awareness of key role of RE?