# Presentation: 169157

## SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES IN SAB

- MOVING FROM IFFA ESTIMATES TO THE AUTOMATIC ESTIMATOR

- Richard Borneman- SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH
- NESDIS/SATELLITE SERVICES DIVISION
- richard.borneman@noaa.gov
- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov

## PART 1

- BACKGROUND ON SAB PRECIPITATION OPERATIONS

## 1979 First Estimates
1983 - Fully Operational
using McIDAS  system
SPENES messages on AFOS
1990 - IFFA to Mainframe
much more data
1993 - Collocated with HPC into NPPU
better QPF support
1995 - Move to OS/2
faster operations
1996 - Estimate Graphics to WWW
SSD homepage
1997 - Orographic Correction added
for short-term estimates
1999 - Moved to Solaris Operating System
Y2K  compliant
2000 - Combined IFFA/Auto-Estimator Operation

**1983 - Fully Operational**
- using McIDAS  system
- SPENES messages on AFOS
**1990 - IFFA to Mainframe**
- much more data
**1993 - Collocated with HPC into NPPU**
- better QPF support
**1995 - Move to OS/2**
- faster operations
**1996 - Estimate Graphics to WWW**
- SSD homepage
**1997 - Orographic Correction added**
- for short-term estimates
**1999 - Moved to Solaris Operating System**
- Y2K  compliant
**2000 - Combined IFFA/Auto-Estimator Operation**

**HISTORY OF IFFA/QPE OPERATION**

## SPRING 2000

- SAB begins using the automatic rainfall estimator (AE) for precipitation operations

## Satellite Analysis BranchPrecipitation Products/Services

- 1.  SPENES Flash Flood Guidance
- 2.  Satellite Rainfall Estimates
- 3.  Support HPC/NCEP

## SPENES Contents

**SPENES Contents**

**1.  IFFA Estimates or Auto-Estimates**
**     ****(hourly rates**

**3-6 hour totals**

**24 hour totals)**

**2.  Satellite Analysis**
**     ****(satellite interpretation - SIM)**

**3.  Nowcast and Satellite Trends**

**4.  Additional Satellite Data**
**     ****In addition to GOES IR & Vis:**
**     **
**      ****-Microwave:  SSM/I &AMSU (Rain Rate/PW)**
**      ****-GOES Sounder and Imager (PW & LI)**
**      ****-GOES Water Vapor Imagery**

***  Issued as  needed - Using FF guidance  and **
**    ****meteorological judgement**

## EXAMPLE OF SPENES WITH AUTO-ESTIMATES

**EXAMPLE OF SPENES WITH AUTO-ESTIMATES**

## PART 2

- BACKGROUND ON AUTO-ESTIMATOR AND EXAMPLES

## Cloud Top Temperature/Rain Rate Curve for Auto-Estimator

## ADDITONAL AE CORRECTIONS/ADJUSTMENTS

- 15 min imagery
- Parallax (satellite viewing angle)
- Cloud growth/cloud top cooling and warming
- Moisture correction
- Orographic correction
- Warm cloud tops/ equilibrium level
- Radar reflectivity/ rain- no rain

## AUTO-ESTIMATOR PRODUCTS

- Every Half Hour:
- Instantaneous Rate
- 1 hour totals
- 3 hour totals
- Hourly:
- 6 hour totals
- Daily (12Z):
- 24 hour totals

## WEB SITES FOR SATELLITE ESTIMATES

- _SSD HOME PAGE_
- SAB OPERATIONAL PRODUCTS
- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/SSD/ML/pcpn-ndx.html
- SPENES guidance message
- Very high resolution estimate graphics- accompany SPENES’s
- _ORA FLASH FLOOD HOME PAGE_
- AUTO-ESTIMATOR PRODUCTS
- http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/arad/ht/ff/index.html
- National products in real-time
- Higher resolution by U.S. quadrants

## HOW TO USE AE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL

- Short term maximums (1 to 6 hours)
- For moderate/heavy convection (not for light rains)
- Use instantaneous product for very short term heavy rains (1 hour or less)
- Location may be off by 1 or 2 counties with strong vertical wind shear (check against radar)
- Looping of 1 and 3 hour totals good for trends and movement

## EXAMPLE

**Auto-Estimates for July 8 – 9, 2000 **

- Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota

## Slide 15

## Slide 16

## 6 hour Auto-Estimates

**6 hour Auto-Estimates**

## SPENES Message that

- TTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM
- .
- SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 7/9/00 0447Z
- THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS‐‐‐NPPU‐‐‐TEL.301‐763‐8678
- VALUES ARE MAX OR SGFNT EST. NO OROGRAPHIC CORRECTION UNLESS NOTED...
- ....EST'S FM:/GOES8‐CNTRL AND E. U.S./GOES10‐W. U.S...
-                                  LATEST DATA USED: GOES‐8 0432Z  CK
-                                             AUTOESTIMATOR 0400Z
- .
- LOCATION...MINNESOTA   WISCONSIN
- .
- EVENT...LATEST CNVCTV TRENDS THRU 0432Z
- .
- REMARKS...BACK EDGE OF CNVTN HAS BEEN SLIPPING S OVER OTTER TAIL COUNTY/MN..
- BUT REMAINS INTENSE WITH SOME BUILDING TWD THE SW. FURTHER EAST..CELL MERGERS
- CONTINUE OVER TODD AND MORRISON COUNTIES.  NO LET‐UP YET FOR PINE COUNTY.
- INTENSE CELLS OVER S AITKIN/MILLE LAC/KANNEBEC COUNTIES ARE DIRFTING S. OVR
- WI INTENSE CELL S OF EAU MOVG S.
- .
- AUTOESTIMATES...   6 HR TOTALS
- MN COUNTIES...      22‐04Z
- OTTER TAIL/TODD       2"  (TOO LIGHT)
- CROW WING/AITKIN     2.5"
- MN/WI CONTIES...
- PINE TO SAWYER        4‐5" MAX AMOUNTS
- WI COUNTIES...
- CHIPPEWA (N OF EAU)   2.5"
- PRICE (W OF RHI)      2.7"
- .
- SEE GRAPHIC AT ADDRESS BELOW..NOTE..SOME OF THE AMOUNTS MAY BE ON THE LIGHT
- SIDE.
- ...
- ...SEE HPC QPF GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSIONS FOR FCST...
- .
- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/SSD/ML/pcpn‐ndx.html
- [ONLINE SSD PRECIPITATION PRODUCT INDEX]
- .
- 

- Was sent

## 24 hour Reports

## CASE STUDY

- EASTERN  IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

- May 31, 2000

**AUTO ESTIMATES**
**Vs.**
**IFFA ESTIMATES**

## Slide 21

## Slide 22

## Slide 23

## Slide 24

## Slide 25

## Slide 26

## Slide 27

## Slide 28

## Slide 29

## SPENES WHICH WAS SENT----BEFORE AE WAS OPERATIONAL

**SPENES WHICH WAS SENT----BEFORE AE WAS OPERATIONAL**

## Slide 31

## IFFA 24hr. Totals

**IFFA 24hr. Totals**

## AE 24hr. Totals

**AE 24hr. Totals**

## 24 HOUR REPORTS

**24 HOUR REPORTS**

## PART 3

- USING AUTOMATIC SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL

## BENEFITS OF USING AE FOR BOTH RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND SAB SPENES GUIDANCE

- More timely
- Greater coverage for whole U.S.
- Continuous coverage
- More frequent SPENES flash flood guidance

## EXAMPLE OF IMPROVED SAB PRECIPITATION OPERATIONS USING AUTO-ESTIMATOR (for first week-started June 12, 2000)

- MORE SPENES MESSAGES- 110 messages; second highest total in 10  years
- BETTER COVERAGE- 54 heavy rain systems for which messages were sent; highest weekly total
- INCREASED TIMELINESS- 21 minutes average time between satellite data and SPENES transmission (compared to 30 min for IFFA)

## DEFICIENCIES OF AE ESTIMATES

- Heavy estimates cover too large of an area
- Mislocation for shearing cold tops
- Overestimates for longer term totals (mostly 24 hour)
- Initial estimates low (first hour)
- Overestimates for very cold cloud tops with much cirrus debris
- Not good for light amounts
- Misses very small short-lived events
- Despite auto-adjustment, warm tops often underestimated.

## Slide 39

## PART 4

*THE FUTURE*

## FUTURE AUTO-ESTIMATOR IMPROVEMENTS

- Available  on AWIPS
- Visible Imagery-mostly location of heaviest rains
- AMSU/SSMI Microwave-calibrate rain rates
- Rain Burst- increase amounts in first hour
- Screen Out Lighter Amounts- decrease long-term overestimates
- GOES Multi-Spectral- rain/no-rain; better amounts