# Presentation: 453381

## Update on 

**the Joint Hurricane Testbed Activities**

**Jiann-Gwo Jiing****JHT Director****NHC**

**7 March  2007**

**Shirley Murillo**
**NOAA/HRD**

**Chris Landsea**
**NHC**

## Outline

**Major activities 2006-2007**
**Conclusion of the 2****nd**** round (03-05) projects**
**Review, fund, and testing of the 3****rd**** round (05-07) projects**
**Preparation for the 4****th**** round (07-09) funding**
**Implementation**
**What have we accomplished**
**Challenges ahead**

## Major Activities 2006-2007 :Conclusion of the 2nd round (FY03-04) projects

**Final evaluation of 12  two-year projects (Jan.-Mar. 2006)**
**Decisions for implementation by TPC and EMC Directors (early April 2006)**
**8 accepted, 3 pending, one not accepted **
**Implementation of 8 accepted two-year projects completed (spring/summer 2006)**
**Overall, out of 15 second round projects, 10 accepted and implemented.**

## JHT 2nd Round Implemented Projects

- Track Uncertainty Estimates  (Goerss)

- GFDL/URI Hurricane Model upgrades (Bender; Ginis)

- 5 day CLIPER – NWP, ENP, ATL (Aberson)

- Probability of
- rapid intensification - ENP (Kaplan)

**JHT 2nd Round Implemented Projects**

- SHIPS & Wind Probabilities (DeMaria/Knaff)

- Rain-CLIPER & rainfall verification (Rogers)

- Inner Core SSTs (Cione)

- Doppler Winds (Gamache)

## JHT 2nd Round Projects - Pending

- Hurricane-Weather Research Forecasting Model (Tuleya)

- Targeted Observations (Majumdar/Aberson)

**JHT 2nd Round Projects - Pending**

## Major Activities 2006-2007 : Review, fund, and testing of 15 3rd round (FY05-06) year two projects 

**Second year funding proposal review (June)**
**Second year projects began (April and July)**
**Requested $1.265M, $1.15M available**
**Real-time testing and evaluation during 2006 hurricane season**

***   ***

## JHT Third Round (FY05-06) ProjectsDynamical model upgrades, observational, and assimilation projects

| Proposal Title | PIs | NHC POC |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Hurricane Model Transition to Operations at GFDL/NOAA | Bender | Pasch, Rhome |
| Hurricane Model Transition to Operations at GFDL/NOAA | Tuleya | Pasch |
| Drag Coefficient and Wind Speed Dependence in TCs | Powell | Franklin |
| Dynamic Initialization to Improve TC Intensity and Structure Forecasts | Liou | Pasch |
| Operational SFMR-NAWIPS Airborne Processing and Data Distribution Products | Carswell, Black, Chang | Beven, Mainelli, Sisko, Lauer |
| Mapping of Topographic Effects on Maximum Sustained Surface Wind Speeds in Landfalling Hurricanes | Miller | Beven |
| Assimilating Moisture Information from GPS Dropwindsondes into the NOAA Global Forecast System | Aberson | Franklin, Blake |
| WSR-88D-derived Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes Near Landfall | Lee, Harasti | Stewart, McAdie |

## JHT Third Round (FY05-06) Projects Intensity, structure, and track projects

| Proposal Title | PIs | NHC POC |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Improved Statistical Intensity Forecast Models | Knaff, DeMaria, Kaplan | Avila, Sisko |
| Enhancement of SHIPS Using Passive Microwave Imager Data | Cecil | Stewart, Sisko |
| Eastern Pacific Ocean Heat Content Estimates for SHIPS Forecasts | Shay, DeMaria | Avila, Mainelli |
| Continued Development of Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Products | Knaff, DeMaria | Lauer |
| Estimating Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Utilizing an Empirical Inland Wind Decay Model | Kaplan | Stewart,  |
| Prediction of Consensus TC Track Forecast Error and Correctors to Improve Consensus TC Track Forecasts | Goerss | Beven |
| Development and Implementation of NHC/JHT Products in ATCF | Sampson | Sisko |

- * retired

## Major activities 2006-2007 : Preparation for the 4th Round (FY07-08)  Funding

**Announcement of Federal Funding Opportunity (June 16****th****)**
**43 Letters of Intent received (July 31****st****)**
**20 encouraged to submit a full proposal (Sep)**
**28 Full proposals reviewed (Dec. 2006-Feb. 2007)**
**NHC & JHT Directors recommend for funding (Late Feb. 2007)**
**New 4****th**** Round Projects begin (spring 2007?)**

**7-8 months for preparation**

## 4th Round (FY07) Recommended Funding DistributionTotal $1.04M

**Private Companies 24%**

**NOAA 20%**

**State and Private Universities 33%**

**Navy (NPS, NRL) 11%**

**NASA 12%**

**(0%)**

**(16%)**

**(36%)**

**(9%)**

**(39%)**

## 4th Round Recommended Project Focus Areas

| Primary Area of Focus | # of Projects |
| --- | --- |
| Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts) | 5 |
| Statistical intensity forecast guidance | 1 |
| Enhancements to observed data, assimilation | 0 |
| Tropical cyclone structure/wind/wave distribution | 2 |
| Track forecast guidance | 1 |
| Enhancements to operational environment | 1 |
| Total | 10* |

**4th Round Recommended Project ****Focus Areas**

## Implementation

**Some relative easy**
**Some very complicated**
**NHC contributes ~0.5 FTE/yr on implementation**
**JHT IT facilitator assists in the process**
**NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed **

**Operational Centers are not funded for this task**

## Highlights of projects implemented in 2006

## Wind Speed Probabilities(Cumulative & incremental)

**TPC is generating wind prob. for all TCs in the NH east of 90E**
**Products are available in NWS NDFD**

**Computed each forecast cycle for all active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, eastern/central Pacific, and western Pacific basins**
**Computed on 2-D grids with 0.5-degree lat/lon spacing**
**Provides probabilities of the surface wind speed equal to or exceeding 34, 50, and 64 kt over specified time intervals (cumulative: 0-120 hours in 12-hour intervals)**
**Individual interval or cumulative probabilities**
**Gridded, graphical, and text products can be produced**

## AMSU (CIRA) Products

- Temperature Anomaly

- Gradient Wind

**AMSU estimated are operationally generated for TCs all over the world**

## What Have We Accomplished2001-2007

**Total projects funded (round 1-3) – ****40**
**Number of projects completed (round 1&2) – ****24**
**	****(One was denied funding after first year)**
**Number of projects accepted for implementation – ****16**
**Number of completed projects not accepted – ****3**
**Number of completed projects pending further evaluation – ****3**
**Number of projects implemented – 15.5**

**Dedicated NHC & JHT staff, and close collaborations between the PIs, **
**NHC forecasters and support staff is the key.**

## Current Challenges

**Grants for projects**
**FY01 – $1,287K**
**FY02 – $1,213K**
**FY03 – $1,350K**
**FY04 – $1,243K **
**FY05 – $1,163K**
**FY06 – $1,058K**
**FY07 – $1,035K (Preliminarily)**
**Diminishing JHT Infrastructure fund from $250K for FY02 to $100K for FY07 – barely enough for a JHT meteorologist/programmer**
**Administrative support**
**travel**
**Supplies**
**Director’s discretion fund**
**Equipment**
**Limited resources for transition and implementation at the NHC**

## JHT Website

**JHT Website**

## Acknowledgements

**JHT Steering Committee**
**JHT administrative assistants**
**Alison Krautkramer, JHT meteorologist/programmer**
**JHT principal investigators and other funded participants**
**John Gaynor (OAR) **
**OFCM**
**TPC/NHC  management and admin staff**
**TPC and EMC forecaster and technical points of contact**
**TPC/TSB staff (implementation!)**

## Qusetions?

## What does it take to support the JHT

**JHT Staff:  **
**Jiann-Gwo Jiing (JHT Director)**
**Alison Krautkramer/Jose Salazar (JHT IT specialist)**
**Shirley Murillo (JHT Admin. Asst.)**
**Chris Landsea (JHT Admin. Asst.)**
**JHT Steering Committee:**
**Ed Rappaport (TPC – Co-chair)**
**Bill Frank (Penn State – Co-chair)**
**John Gamache (Hurricane Research Division)**
**Jeff Hawkins (Naval Research Laboratory)**
**Naomi Surgi (Environmental Modeling Center)**
**Ed Fukada (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)**
**Hugh Willoughby (Florida International University)**
**John Gaynor (US Weather Research Program) **
**TPC and EMC forecaster and technical points of contact**
**TPC/Technical Support  Branch IT staff**