# Presentation: 272514

## Climate and Global Change Working Group ReportsNOAA Climate ReviewApril 19-21, 2004

- NOAA Science Advisory Board
- July 14, 2004

## General Comments

- Follow-up to previous two meetings
- Joint meeting with the *Climate Monitoring Working Group in Duck Key, FL*
- Chet Koblinsky, Director, NOAA Climate Program, organized NOAA response to WG advice and provided direction

## Agenda - CGCWG/CMWG

- CCSP Update
- NOAA Climate Program Structure (5 components)
- CCSP Deliverables
- NOAA role in CCSP
- NOAA Program Components
- Climate Observations and Analysis
- Climate Forcing
- Climate Predictions and Projections
- Climate and Ecosystems
- Regional Decision Support

## Agenda - Split Sessions with CMWG

- Data Stewardship and CLASS (Comprehensive Large-Array Stewardship System)
- NOAA Baseline Assessment for Climate Observations and Analysis
- Adaptation of Model Data for Use in Assessments

## General Comments

- NOAA needs to provide input mechanisms for external community executors/stakeholders
- Little evidence of cross-agency coordination
- Budgetary constraints lead to tensions between ongoing and new activities, *e.g.* ocean observing versus regional assessments (RISAs)
- NOAA’s role in ecosystem observations *vis a vis* other thrusts is not very well articulated, as yet

## General Comments - continued

- Decision support activities remain ill-defined
- New PPBES mechanism/cycle impacts are significant and leading to programmatic uncertainty
- Need to develop linkages between observing systems, analysis, and modeling

## Programmatic Challenges

- Paleo-climate program restructuring will have a major impact on NOAA collaborations with academe as well as amount of “abrupt climate change” research on a national level
- Internal redirection of resources into observations from OGP process studies will have a negative impact on understanding needed for the IPCC process
- Matrix management approach to integrated programs is a new concept for NOAA and remains to be validated

## Programmatic Challenges - cont’d

- Reanalysis strategy is remarkably inward directed and requires strong linkages with the observing system
- Modeling strategy needs stronger input from operational components in NOAA
- NOAA climate test bed strategy seems to be based on a “go it alone” philosophy - very NCEP “centric”
- Integrated Observing Systems Strategy must include observations AND subsequent analyses components

## Programmatic Challenges - cont’d

- No mechanisms for optimizing across observing system components
- CLASS requires stronger corporate as well as outside community participation
- CLASS has no mechanisms for ongoing evolution of capabilities and services
- Where is the stakeholders’ input in the program plan?
- Should it be/is it connected to the “attribution” dimension of the program?
- Lack of integration and balance between program elements

## Carbon Cycle Observing System

- North American Array design - better understood, but still not there
- Tall towers, intensive sites, surface sites, aircraft tradeoffs
- Time/space scales (1000 km/variable in time)
- 30 sites in 2007
- A conundrum: east coast/west coast CO2 levels
- 2007 Goal: reduce N.Am. Carbon sink uncertainty by 50%
- Must improve Carbon inverse models for source-sink determinations
- Must/should explore partnering opportunities with academia for observing, analysis and model interpretation

## Upper Atmosphere Observing System

- Present network is not adequate to document and understand changes in atmospheric structure
- Complementary to remote sensing
- Maintain continuity wit historical archive
- Several proposals being considered
- For example, augment existing network, dropsondes from balloons/UAV’s, global reference network, etc.
- Overlap during transitions will be critical
- Need for network design studies
- NOAA must show leadership to determine needs, work with international partners, and commit to long-term support
- Important issue for weather and climate, but independent solutions still being proposed with little or no coordination
- Summer 2004 workshop to define requirements, identify and compare options
- Ensure that progress continues to be made on this issue

## Some final thoughts

- Meeting happened at the conclusion of the first cycle of the PPBES
- Internal vs. external performer roles require balancing
- External community feels shut out of the NOAA planning process
- Working Group structures need attention
- Combine into a single Working Group
- Broaden input to include private industry
- GEO becoming a more critical force in driving observing system design

## Some final thoughts - continued

- Carbon Program requires sustained attention
- NOAA must establish a clear and open process whereby the stakeholders in the set of core products will have input into their specifications and can comment on their utility
- No clearly articulated role for private enterprise in the information system

## Requested SAB Actions

- Rework the Working Group charge to merge the two (CM and CGC) into a revised CGC WG, encompassing research, observational and information system elements
- Design the PPBES process to incorporate academic and JI input in a timely manner
- Ongoing involvement of the external community into the CLASS program
- Carbon observing system design review
- Upper Air observing system implementation review
- Definition of NOAA Decision Support efforts