# Presentation: 037087

## Regional Best Collaboration Practices

**From CR Methodology team and **
**ER Collaboration Expectations Paper**

## We’re making progress! 

**	****Aug 2002 ****	****	****	****	****Today**

**Notes:**
No criticism of STL, they weren’t the only ones!

## What is Collaboration?

**The collaborative process**
- allows a group to exchange ideas, discuss alternatives, and reach a joint conclusion
- allow forecasters to share information between their colleagues, and exchange reasoning on what the atmosphere and ocean are going to do

## Step 1

**Go in with an ****open mind****, be willing to ****listen**** as well as ****share**** ideas/thoughts**
** ****The forecaster’s tone in chat (12 Planet) and/or via the phone, should be one which conveys to others that you are ****willing to negotiate**

## Collaboration

** ****Begin forecast process with the idea that the existing collaborated forecast is the best forecast**
** ****When major changes are indicated, try agreeing on a "best model" or “best solution” in collaboration**
**If you can agree a certain solution is best, then issues of system timing, track, precipitation type and other smaller details should "fall out" **

## Collaboration

**After your initial look at the forecast data, ****express your initial thoughts in chat**
** ****Let others know ****early in the forecast process**** what looks good (e.g. grids that need little, if any, changes) and what changes you see that may be needed in the forecast**
**Make sure to ****address major points ****and**** significant changes**

## Respond

**Be responsive to questions**** from others**
**If you have no comment yet, say so!**
**If you are busy with something else at the moment, say so!**
**Let others know you are there**
**Saying**** something**** is better than not saying anything**

## Where to Focus

**A forecaster should **
**Concentrate on hydrometeorological problems of the day**
**Focus collaboration on parts of the database that do not agree with their interpretation of recent observations, model data, and experience**

## Where to Focus

**That part of the database that is in agreement with a forecaster’s interpretation of new model data **_**and**_** is within consistency thresholds does not require collaboration through 12Planet. **
**These grids should still be shared through ISC**

## What Should I Discuss when I Collaborate?

**Discussions using 12Planet are to be professional, short, to the point, and focus on the hydrometeorological factors affecting the forecast grids **
**The chat room is not a forum to complain, attack other offices, or pontificate**
**Discuss your forecast rationale based on sound hydrometeorological reasoning, be open to other ideas, come to a decision, and move on**

## Collaboration (cont.)

** ****Forecasters should be prepared to discuss any aspect of the forecast at any time**
** ****No local or individual policies should exist that prohibit updates to the extended grids outside of the day shift**
**Conservatism is wise, but policies should not interfere with collaborative process**

**Notes:**
No local or individual policies that prohibit updates (PERIOD!).  At any time.

## Going It Alone

**In cases where a minority view still exists, then consensus should take precedence**
**To put it simply, if you can’t get “buy-in” from the majority, then you should probably not make the proposed change if it will compromise the NDFD grids (i.e., put them out of meteorological tolerance)**
**As a general rule, ****going it alone should be avoided**

## Going It Alone

**There may be times when a meteorological event is imminent (in the short term; generally in the 0 to 24 hour period) that will mainly affect your CWA, or area of concern**
**In these cases, an attempt to collaborate should be made**
**However****, if differences cannot be resolved to within tolerance, then the expected meteorological event should be represented in the grids as the forecaster deems appropriate, to best serve his/her local users in the affected CWA**

## Complex Weather

**Complex weather situations**** (such as winter storms or those that require headlines, etc.) will likely**** ****test the collaboration process**
**If the affected ****offices ****can reasonably agree on the CWA(s) that will be ****impacted the greatest**** by the storm, then these offices ****should take the lead in setting the meteorological tone for the event****, with adjacent offices becoming willing partners to blend in**
**This should be discussed in chat early on in the forecast process**

## Complex Weather (cont.)

**If meteorological differences of opinion cannot be worked out, then it is suggested that the HPC be used as a tie-breaker as to which area will be impacted the greatest (if reasonably possible to determine)**
**This should be discussed among the affected WFO’s and the HPC in the chat room**

## Smoothing in ISC

**Issue:  Smoothing grids merely to meet consistency requirements**
**Office A notes a difference in a grid along their border with Office B that exceeds the collaboration threshold**
**Office A sends a message to Office B suggesting they work to resolve the differences**
**Office B does not acknowledge Office A**

## Smoothing in ISC (cont.)

**Office A gives up trying to contact Office B**
**Office A smoothes the grid in question**

## Smoothing in ISC - example

**                               ...****is this science?**
**NDFD is about the data/grids****, not the graphics**

## Document Collaboration Successes and Breakdowns

**We learn through our successes and failures -  If the process breaks down or significant problems were noted during the collaboration process, pass them on your first or second line supervisor(s)**
**Offices should also develop effective QC or verification methods to ascertain forecast skill in the NDFD era**
**Document, through local case studies, when significant differences arise in meteorological expectations, and share what was learned by the outcome of such events**

## Expectations for Senior Forecasters

**Senior Forecasters will ensure forecasters participate in the collaborative forecast process through timely sharing of grids through ISC and discussions on 12Planet**
**Senior Forecasters must place a high priority on meeting NDFD deadlines**
**Senior Forecasters have the responsibility to arrange for sufficient staffing to meet NDFD deadlines during significant weather events**
*** ***

## Human Resources

**Shift schedules - Traditional starting and ending times of shifts may not be the most optimum for facilitating collaboration**
**Local Office Teams should examine shift schedules to optimize the coverage of forecast shifts relative to collaboration requirements**

## Human Resources

** ****Flexible grid editing strategies should be considered**
**  ****Long term/Short term may not always work best  **
** ****Other strategies include**
**One person doing all the “new” forecast grids, another doing first period updates, day 1 mesoscale/NOW's, and issuing fire weather and aviation products**
**Aviation or Fire Weather forecaster doing all 7 days of the grids that will most directly affect the important parameters for each program area**
**One forecaster focus on a significant storm that is forecast while others (as many as needed) handle the rest of the database**

**Notes:**
Some of these methodologies (more than others) will require higher levels of intraoffice collab.

## Forecaster Philosophy

**Forecasters must keep forecast products reflective of trends in observations and model data**
**After forecast grids and text products are released to customers, the requirement of event-driven updates does not diminish as the end of a shift approaches  **
**Collaboration does not end with the issuance of products; it should be an ongoing process  **
**The production of grids is not a race**
** ****No prizes for being the first to publish grids!**

## Management Philosophy

**Management must set the tone for the office **
**Management is responsible for making sure the office accomplishes its assigned duties in an efficient and timely manner, and ensuring all products are as accurate as possible**
**This includes the grids**

## OUTSTANDING COLLABORATION ISSUES

**Inconsistent coverage of NDFD grids in time and space **
**Not all WFOs NATIONWIDE provide all grids through day 7**
**Gridpoint masking (e.g., temperatures over water)**
**Inconsistent use of time definitions across CONUS**
**UTC vs Local Time in grids and text**** **
**  **

## OUTSTANDING COLLABORATION ISSUES

**Inconsistent use of PoPs**
**Inconsistent times, grids, and tools for forecast collaboration**
**Inconsistent update strategies (scheduled vs. event-driven)**
**Inconsistent forecast preparation methodologies**