# Presentation: 549567

## DoD Volcano & Ash Forecasting:

**DoD Volcano & Ash Forecasting:**
**Perspectives, Challenges, and Opportunities **
***--2******nd****** International Conference on Volcano and Ash Forecasting***

**Mr. Alan R. Shaffer**
**June 21, 2004**
** ****Director, Plans & Programs Office**
**Defense Research and Engineering**

**Notes:**
 I would like to discuss somewhat the past of DoD Science & Technology with an emphasis on the role that I see materials having played.
 Then I would like to spend a few moments on our present in terms of funding and the status of plans.
 Finally, I want to provide you with some of our thoughts on where the future of S&T is headed, how it fits into the larger mission of the Department of Defense, and how materials and structures can play an important, and even critical role, in that future.

## Operational Support System

**Air Force Weather Agency serves as DoD focal point for global volcanic ash cloud forecasts; 24/7 global coverage**
**Text Bulletins**
**Satellite Analysis **
**Graphical Forecast Products**
**Takes Advantage of Advanced MetSat Applications at Air Force Weather Agency**
**Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Data Process and Handling Center**
**Forecast based on ”PUFF” Model **
**PUFF is Advective Model using Point Source and Gridded Wind Fields**
**Military Model can be run with higher resolution (45km grid vice 191-km) **
**Navy Centers also issue tailored ash forecasts; e.g. NEMOC issues routine Mt. Etna forecasts for Sigoniela, Italy**
**Ash Forecast Driver Different for DoD compared to Commercial**
**Mission vice Economic Drivers**

***For Official Use Only***

**Notes:**
AFWA Forecast issued by Metsat Applications Branch

## Operational Support System--Air Force Weather Agency--

***For Official Use Only***

**  ****AFWA Issues Graphic Problems as Required—example at right is the forecast for Tungurahua in Ecuador (June 17, 2004)**
**  ****Includes flight level, ash density**
**  ****Products updated daily—or more often if serious event occurs**
**  ****Also issue an animation product for forecast evolution over time**

**Notes:**
AFWA Forecast issued by Metsat Applications Branch

## Operational Support System--Air Force Weather Agency--

-   Expansion of panels for Tunguruhura, in Ecuador (June 17, 2004)
-   Panel shows +3, +6 hour forecast over a altitude width
-   For specialized missions, it is possible to provide high resolution tailored forecasts

- 18 June 0300Z

- 18 June 0600Z

**Operational Support System*****--Air Force Weather Agency--***

**Notes:**
AFWA Forecast issued by Metsat Applications Branch

## National Weather Service Product--VAFTAD--

-  Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy NOGAPS model
-  VAFTAD is advection / diffusion model
-   191 Km AVN fields
-   Navy developing 45 km version using NOGAPS Sky-high model

**National Weather Service Product*****--VAFTAD--***

***For Official Use Only***

**Notes:**
AFWA Forecast issued by Metsat Applications Branch

## Operational DoD Text Bulletincs

***For Official Use Only***

**WEATHER BULLETINS **
**FVAW1 KGWC 180000 GLOBAL VOLCANIC ERUPTION SUMMARY BULLETIN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS PAST 24 HOURS **
**          ****1.  EUROPE, AFRICA, AND ICELAND (A) NONE. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE CURRENT FVAF LFPW BULLETIN—**
**          ****2.  AMERICAS (CANADA, CARIBBEAN, SOUTH AMERICA) (A)VOLCANO: TUNGURAHUA 1502-08 LOCATION: 1.46S 78.44W AREA: ECUADOR SUMMIT ELEVATION: 16480 FT (5023 M)) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 17/1745Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH/STEAM TO FL230 MOVG WEST AT 15-20 KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVXX KWBC BULLETIN—**
**           ****3. NORTH PACIFIC (ALASKA, KAMCHATKA, JAPAN, PHILIPPINES) (A)VOLCANO: KARYMSKY 1000-13 LOCATION: 54.05N 159.43E AREA: KAMCHATKA SUMMIT ELEVATION: 4874 FT (1486 M) ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION REPORTED AT 17/2223Z. TRAJECTORY: ASH TO FL090 MVG EAST AT 15-20KTS. --FOR FURTHER INFORMATION SEE FVFE RJTD BULLETIN– **
**          ****4. SOUTH PACIFIC (AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND, INDONESIA) (A) NONE. FOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PUFF MODEL FORECASTS BASED ON GFS DATA SEE: HTTPS ://WEATHER.AFWA.AF.MIL/ENVIRONMENTAL(UNDERSCORE)EVENTS.HTML (LOWER-CASE ONLY). PREPARED BY MARTINEZ **
-    Created: 01:48:59 Z on Fri 18 Jun 2004.

-   Issued by AGFWA

**Notes:**
AFWA Forecast issued by Metsat Applications Branch

## Current State of Supporting Research

**Air Force**
**Air Force Does in-house development of products and graphics by Satellite Applications Branch**
**Has supported the development of PUFF, with the University of Alaska Geophysics Institute**
**AF Funded efforts included:**
**Creating the ability to ingest (high resolution) AFWA forecast model fields**
**Developing graphical user interface **
**Further Development not funded**
**Navy:  Ingestion of NOGAPS Sky Hi (45km) fields into PUFF **
**Army:  Jointly funded early University Partnering for Operational Support **
**Other Applicable Research**
**Sensing**
**DoD spending ~$300M/year in advanced sensors and applicatrions, including advanced IR resolution and uncooled IR focal planes, as well as multispectral and hyperspectral sensors**
**DoD again funding (minimally) seismology research**
**Propulsion:  DoD investing ~ $125M / year in Integrated High-Performance Turbine Engine Research; including advanced componsites and metals**

***For Official Use Only***

**Notes:**
AFWA Forecast issued by Metsat Applications Branch

## PUFF Characteristics

**PUFF is used by Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center, Air Fore Weather Agency and University of Anchorage Volcanic Ash Advisory Center**
**Deficiencies:**
**Detection**
**Sensing initial ash eruption density **
**Characterizing ash cloud density and distribution **
**Plume Transport**
**Characterizing upper level variability in wind field**
**Integrating model with high resolution winds**
**Future proposed research includes real time graphical user interface **

***For Official Use Only***

**Notes:**
AFWA Forecast issued by Metsat Applications Branch

## Research Opportunities

**Apply other DoD tools to Volcanic Ash model**
**High Resolution Terrain Data:  Worldwide terrain / topographic data available at 100m post spacing—many areas 3 to 5 meters**
**Novel Sensors:**
**Multi and Hyperspectral, Long Wave IR**
**DoD experimenting with Hyperspectral high resolution—**
**Question:  Are there unique spectral characteristics in volcanic ash cloud?**
**How does Met Community Leverage other opportunities?**
**Navy SPY-1 Radar became solid weather radar for Navy Aegis Cruiser**
**Use of multiple sensors**

***For Official Use Only***

**Notes:**
AFWA Forecast issued by Metsat Applications Branch

## Possible Application—Hyperspectral Imagery --Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program--

**Hyperspectral detection of camouflaged and concealed mobile tactical vehicles**
**Algorithm-based detection processing**
**Detection-cued high resolution imagery**

**Cued High-Resolution Image Chip**

- Actual  Image Pending Security Review

**Output from SEM **
**detection algorithm**

## Possible Application—Hyperspectral Imagery --Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program--

**Littoral Radiance II**
**Camp Pendleton CA, June 14, 1997**

**Classification Map**

**Confusion Matrix (SAM)**

**Algorithm Performance Comparison**

**Possible Application—Hyperspectral Imagery**** --Adaptive Spectral Reconnaissance Program--**

## Hypersonic Sensors

***For Official Use Only***

- Goes 12

**Notes:**
AFWA Forecast issued by Metsat Applications Branch

## Research Questions

***For Official Use Only***

- Goes 12

**Notes:**
AFWA Forecast issued by Metsat Applications Branch

## Operational Support System--Navy Forecast Philosophy--

-   Navy Research Lab is investigating:  Improvement in the  Volcanic Ash Forecast Transport and Dispersion Model (VAFTAD) and PUFF
-  Investigating the ingestion of deep layer Navy NOGAPS model
-  Again, Looking at higher resolution models

**Operational Support System*****--Navy Forecast Philosophy--***

**Notes:**
AFWA Forecast issued by Metsat Applications Branch