# Presentation: 191818

## NDFD StatusWhat’s new and what’s coming

***David Ruth******Meteorological Development Laboratory***
*IFPS Methodology Workshop** II*

## NDFD Consistency

- What’s new
*Adjacent versus coincident points*
*Points excluded for elevation differences >1000 ft*
*Points excluded that cross marine boundaries*
*WFO scores weighted by border length*
*Sortable tables*
*Wave height, wind direction, snow amount*
*Spatial and temporal variability percentiles*
*Consistency spreadsheet archive*
*Hourly WFO summaries by grouped by element, adjacent WFO, and forecast day*
- What’s coming
*Interelement checks*
*Forecast stability measures*

## NDFD Completeness and Timeliness

- What’s new
*Update page refreshed every 10 minutes*
*10-102 (draft) compliance scores*
*30-day archive of daily scores*
*Wave height, snow*
- What’s coming
*NDFD GFE Status message*
*WFO-specific summary pages*

## NDFD Verification

- What’s new
*Point verification using NDFD gridpoint nearest observation*
- Max/min Temp, PoP12, Temp, Dewpoint, Wind Direction/Speed
*Gridded verification using RUC 20km analysis*
- Temp, Dewpoint, Wind Speed
*Scores updated and posted monthly*
*Scores can be downloaded for local analysis*
- What’s coming
*Point verification for all NDFD elements*
*Gridded verification using ADAS on 5km grid*
*Monthly WFO summaries*

## NDFD ORD verification

## NDFD ORD verification

## NDFD ORD verification

## NDFD temperature bias

## Opportunities for MDL

**Produce high-resolution statistical guidance on NDFD grid **
**Use ensembles to produce forecast uncertainty information**
**Exploit emerging high resolution climate databases**
**Monitor NDFD and new model guidance**
***develop statistical techniques that identify areas/times ripe for a “bust”***
***identify most relevant datasets for forecaster to view/download***
**Produce probabilistic short fuse warning/nowcast guidance**
**Provide statistical support for production of 3D aviation grids**
**Develop National Digital Guidance Database comparable to NDFD**
**Perform comparative verifications with NDFD that support NWS decision making**
**Revitalize storm surge**

## Proposed Course of Action

- Phase out software as an external MDL product line
- Establish MDL as world leader in the _P_robabilistic _R_eal-time _I_nterpretation of _M_odels and _F_orecasts
- Make MDL interpretative products available in database that provides interoperability with NDFD.

## PRIMF Digital Flow

- Current
- Observation

- Climatology

- PRIMF
- Server

- Numerical
- Output

- NDFD

- NDGD

- NWS Forecast Offices
-  and Centers

- NWS Customers
-  and Partners

## PRIMF Components

- High-resolution MOS and updates to MOS (i.e., LAMP)
- Statistical interpretation of NDFD highlighting forecast uncertainty
- Real-time forecast monitoring and feedback
- Probabilistic coastal hazards
- Verification of NDFD and NDGD

## Call to Action #1: High-resolution MOS

- Implement gridded MOS for elements in the NDFD
- Provide MOS ensemble guidance products

##               Gridded MOS

*Obtain requisite geophysical and observational datasets (January 2004)*
*Develop and test GFS MOS equations (June 2004)*
*Implement temperature, PoP, wind, thunderstorm, and snowfall for western U.S. (September 2004)*
*Implement complete suite of gridded products (September 2005)*

## Evaluate ensemble-based extended-range MOS forecasts (September 2004)
Implement consensus extended-range MOS forecast product (September 2004)
Implement ensemble-based probabilistic max/min guidance (September 2005)

*Implement consensus extended-range MOS forecast product (September 2004)*
*Implement ensemble-based probabilistic max/min guidance (September 2005)*

**      ****Ensemble MOS**

## Call to Action #2:NDGD Development

- Prototype methods to determine forecast uncertainty by comparing NDFD to:
*Model ensemble spread*
*Categorical MOS probabilities*
*Station/gridpoint climatology*
- Post MDL interpretative products experimentally

##            NDGD Development

*Develop plan for NDGD infrastructure (March 2004)*
*Establish MOS data feeds (June 2004)*
*Prototype interpretive NDFD products (September 2004)*
*Incorporate other data sources  (March 2005)*
*Post interpretive products (September 2005)*

## Call to Action #3:Coastal Hazards

- Develop and bring probabilistic surge forecasts into operations
- Enhance surge/wave modeling, emphasizing coastal impact

##          Probabilistic Storm Surge

*Obtain NHC buy in for probabilistic real-time surge forecasts (November 2003)*
*Make experimental, probabilistic hurricane storm surge forecast available to NHC  (June 2004)*

##         Surge/Wave Modeling

*Couple coastal wave model to SLOSH for the Jacksonville area  (March 2004)*
*Support comparison of SLOSH output to other models  (September  2004)*
*Infuse new physics into SLOSH based on results of comparison  (September 2005)*

## Call to Action #4NDFD Verification

- Provide verification results for all NDFD elements
- Conduct NDFD verification on a grid per emerging National Verification Plan.

##           NDFD Verification

*Coordinate NDFD verification plan through NVIWT (December 2003)*
*Evaluate Western Region’s ADAS analysis for gridded verification (January 2004)*
*Increase the NDFD variables verified to include wind speed, wind direction, and sky cover (February 2004)*
*Implement new verification techniques according to plan (ongoing)*

## Call to Action #5SCAN

- Work with SEC and PPD to implement NOAA Matrix Technology Transfer Team for local forecasts and warnings

##         WWA, SCAN, FFMP etc

- Work with FSL, NSSL, OHD, and SEC via AWIPS SREC and other mechanisms to establish joint or matrix development projects (ongoing)
- Complete Strawman plan for NextGen Warning Tool (November 2003)

## Call to Action #6Cease and desist

- Phase out development of WFO product generation software
- Phase out support of MDL software implemented at WFOs
- Phase out generation of AFOS-Era Verification (AEV) Statistics

##         Phase out development

*End new WWA development except for DRs after OB4 (February 2004)*
*Remove outmoded IFPS product generation software (September 2004)*

##          Phase out support

*Train support organizations on IFPS*
- Initial to NCF (December 2003) and SST (March 2004)
- Follow-on June 2004
*Transition IFPS support and maintenance*
- Planning through March 2004
- Complete June 2005
*Train support personnel on other applications  (December 2004)*
*Plan transition of other support and maintenance (March 2005)*

##         Phase out maintenance

*Stop generating AFOS-era Verification statistics when OCWWS determines they are no longer necessary (date TBD)*