# Presentation: 516424

## Director’s Updateof the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

- COPC Meeting
- Offutt Air Force Base
- May 15-16, 2002
- Dr. Louis Uccellini
- Director, NCEP
*“**Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”*

## Overview

- NCEP Contribution to Homeland Security
- Infrastructure Activities
- NCEP Implementations
- Volcanic Ash Model Backup
- NCEP ACARS Backup
- NCEP FY02-03 Backup Plans
- Appendix

## NCEP’s Contribution to Homeland Security

- Phase I
- Routine runs of the ARL HYSPLIT dispersion model
- Uses output from 12 km Eta model
- Runs for 15 sites 4 times daily
- Operational – November 2001
- Phase II
- On call ARL HYSPLIT model run with 4 km NCEP Nonhydrostatic Meso Model (NMM)
- 4 km NMM model run available over any one of 26 predefined regions covering CONUS, AK, HI, and PR.
- June 2002

## 4 km NMM Domains

## Infrastructure Activities

- New NCEP super-computer and site to be chosen late May or early June
- Backup NCEP super-computer and site recommendation to senior management planned for late June 2002 – approval awaits congressional action for FY03 budget
- Backup NCF in Fairmont, W. VA - October 2002
- Backup NWSTG in Mt. Weather, VA - February 2004

## 2002 Implementations

- _Global Forecast System_
- AVN model has been renamed to the Global Forecast System (GFS)
- Length of 4 per day GFS runs increased to 384 Hours - 5 March 2002
- MRF run discontinued and replaced with the extended 00 UTC GFS - 23 April 2002
- Resolution increase from T170L42 (75 km) to T254L64 (55 km) – TBD

## 2002 Implementations (cont.)

- _Mesoscale Models_
- Eta model resolution increase from 22 km / 50 levels to 12 km / 60 levels – 27 November 2001
- RUC model resolution increase from 40 km / 40 levels to 20 km / 50 levels - 16 April 2002
- RSAS resolution upgrade from 60 km to 15 km - June 2002
- SREF – Addition of 5 new Eta members with Kain-Fritsch physics – 15 total members – June 2002
- Eta physics package and 3DVAR upgrade - July 2002
- Nonhydrostatic mesoscale model in WRF framework– September 2002

**Notes:**
RSAS – RUC Surface Analysis System
Eta 3DVAR to include 88D radial wind data
SREF – Short range Regional Ensemble Forecast

## 2002 Implementations (cont.)

- _Ocean Models_
- New Coastal Ocean Forecast System (COFS) model - 12 March 2002
- 48 hour forecast run once per day at 00 UTC
- 10 km resolution near shore, 20 km offshore
- Parameters include: water temperature, salinity, currents, and surface elevation
- Eastern North Pacific regional wave model - 30 April 2002
- Eastern Pacific hurricane wave model - tentative Fall 2002-dependent upon conversion to new computer
- _GFDL Hurricane Model_
- Upgrade from a three grid system (1 deg x 1/3 deg x 1/6 deg) to a larger two grid system (1⁄2 deg x 1/6 deg) – 21 May 2002

## Volcanic Ash Model Backup

- For backup to the VAFTAD model, the NWSTG can now post the AFWA PUFF model graphics
-     -   NCEP supplied commercial graphic package to
-         AFWA  needed to make graphics acceptable by
-         NWSTG
-     -   All requested changes to graphic output have
-         been made
- NCEP, NESDIS and AFWA have a first draft MOA to finalize and sign

## NCEP ACARS Backup

- Current ACARS data are transmitted from ARINC to FAA to NWSTG to NCEP
-      - This complex route results in major outages
-         (several hours)  about twice per year
- Implemented partial backup using AFWA- decoded ACARS – 8 February 2002
-      - Uses ARINC to AFWA to NWSTG to NCEP
- 	    transmission route

## NCEP ACARS Backup (Cont.)

-     - Only for United Airlines data currently
-      - AFWA plans to decode more after closing
- 	   Tinker
-      - Research with this backup has already resulted
- 	   in ARINC improving their service through better
- 	   data decoding

## NCEP Use of Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN) as a Backup

- If the NWSTG is down, NCEP would lose CONUS upper air, profiler and METAR data
- These data are critical for CONUS forecasts
- NCEP can also obtain these data via a (SBN) NOAAPORT receiver
- NCEP’s data receipt via the SBN awaits NESDIS providing equipment and service – TBD
- This backup will be more robust when the backup NCF is operational

## Appendices

- Current Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) Management Slides
- Current NCEP Backup

##  JCSDA Goals

- Increase/accelerate use of research and operational satellite observations in operational models
- Implement new data/new algorithms into operational models
- Common modeling infrastructure
- Common data and telecommunications
- High-performance computing

## JCSDA Status

- Actions underway include DoD and IPO within the JCSDA (Marie Colton, focal point)
- Progress being made in the implementation of research and operational satellite data in NCEP models
- Progress being made in “infrastructure” for the “Distributed Center”

## JCSDA Accomplishments

- TRMM TMI operational in NCEP system - October 2001
- QUIKSCAT operational in NCEP system - January 2002
- 3-8% improvement in 10 m winds vs. mid-latitude deep ocean buoys at 24-96 h; 7-17% improvement for MSLP
- Ready for AIRS
- Running “simulated instrument”
- Surface emissivity models being tested

- Science-Model Assessment**:**

## JCSDA Accomplishments

- Computer installed (at NASA) and enhanced comms network established to deliver AIRS/MODIS to NCEP within 180 minutes of ingest
- Community-based fast radiative transfer model documented and delivered to all members (being tested for AIRS).
- First step in the use of radiance data in NWP
- Critical factor in accelerated assessment of AIRS and decision to process for use in operations
- Internet 2 access being built to connect member institutions
- NCEP model ported to NASA/GSFC, now used in parallel/research mode

- Infrastructure:

## Current NCEP Backup

- _NCEP Model_	             _Substitute Model Data_
- 12 km Eta 	      =>    AFWA MM5 @ 45km
- T170 GFS 4 Daily  =>    Navy NOGAPS
-      to 384 hours 		  T159  2 daily
- Wave Model 	      =>    Navy WW3 same model
- GFDL Hurricane     =>    Navy GFDN Hurricane
- RUC 20 Km	      =>    FSL RUC same model 40 KM
- Ensembles 	      =>    No backup available
- WAFS Grids, Fax
-     and Graphics           =>    UKMET
- VAFTAD	      =>	   AFWA PUFF