# Presentation: 667253

## State Age-Sex:  Overview

- The basics
- The general method: Ages 0 – 64
- Beginning populations
- Deaths
- Migration
- The general method: Ages 65+

## State Age-Sex:  The Basics

- State population
- SYA (0 – 84, 85+) by sex
- Estimate interval approach to creating time series

## State Age-Sex:  The General Method

- Calculate preliminary population estimates
- Calculate the civilian beginning populations and add births*
- Subtract deaths*
- Calculate estimated net migration and add*
- Apply sex proportions to get population by sex
- Add military to get resident population
- Estimate the 65+ population*
- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute estimates
- National estimates by age and sex
- State totals estimates (0-64, 65+)

- * will be discussed in detail in this workshop

## State Age-Sex:  Beginning Population

- Start with GUSSIE resident base population
- By SYA and sex
- Shift the age of the base population to age in estimate year
- Add male and female population together
- Add birth data to the youngest ages
- Subtract out the military population to get the final civilian beginning population

## State Age-Sex:  Deaths

- Calculate preliminary estimates of deaths
- Begin with cumulative deaths (Census date to estimate date)  to the resident population by SYA (0-64) for each year in the estimate period
- Cumulate for all intervals
- Subtract an estimate of military deaths
- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute national civilian deaths by SYA from National Estimates

## State Age-Sex:  Migration, Ages 0 - 16

- Develop an estimate of the total school age population (ages 6 to 14) for each estimate year
- Distribute the national estimates for ages 6-14 to the states using proportions developed from school enrollment data

## State Age-Sex:  Migration, Ages 0 – 16 (cont.)

- Develop a set of state school age population estimates under the assumption of no migration
- Survive the cohorts that become the school age population in the estimates year from Census 2000 to each estimate year using deaths from vital registration
- Migration = [#1] – [#2]
- Distribute to SYA 0 to 16

## State Age-Sex:  School Age Migration Rates

- Begin with the estimates of migration of the school age population from the previous step
- Calculate an estimate of the mid-interval school age population (6 to 14) for each estimate interval
- Subtract 1⁄2 of the estimate of the cumulative school age deaths for each estimate interval from the Census 2000 school age population

## State Age-Sex:  School Age Migration Rates (cont.)

- Compute the school age migration rates
- Divide the estimates of school age migration for each estimate interval by the corresponding mid-interval estimate of the school age population

## State Age-Sex:  Migration Differentials

- Begin with census data from 5-year residence question (ignoring sampling variability)
- Calculate in and out migration rates by state and SYA (0-84, 85+) and smooth by age
- Combine in and out rates into a net migration rate
- Convert to annual net migration rates
- Calculate annual migrants by multiplying annual rate by mid-interval estimate

## State Age-Sex:  Migration Differentials (cont.)

- Sum migrants by cohort and collapse summed migrants ages 6-14 into one group
- Create new migration rates by dividing summed migrants ages 6-14 as a group and 17-64 migrants by SYA by the corresponding population at the beginning of the interval
- Subtract school age migration rate from each SYA migration rate to get migration differentials

## State Age-Sex:  Migration Differentials (cont.)

- Pro-rate the differentials so they reflect the appropriate estimate interval

## State Age-Sex:  Migration, Ages 17 - 64

- Begin with school age migration rates
- Calculate migration rates by SYA 17 to 64 by adding the SYA migration differentials to the school age migration rate
- Calculate migration by SYA 17 to 64 by multiplying the single-year rates by an  estimate of the mid-interval population
- Mid-interval population = Base population + 1⁄2 interval deaths

## State Age-Sex:  Population Estimates 65+

- Calculate preliminary population estimates
- Start with Medicare data by state, sex and 5-year age groups 65-84 and 85+
- Extrapolate values for 4/1/00 and missing estimate years
- Control to Medicare totals used in state and county totals estimates
- Distribute by SYA using cohort distributions from Census 2000
- Calculate implied population change since 4/1/00  (estimated population – beginning population) and add to beginning population

## State Age-Sex:  Population Estimates 65+ (cont.)

- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute national estimates

## State Age-Sex:  Summary

- Calculate preliminary population estimates
- Calculate the civilian beginning populations and add births
- Subtract deaths
- Calculate estimated net migration and add
- Apply sex proportions to get population by sex
- Add military to get resident population
- Estimate the 65+ population
- Calculate proportions
- Use proportions to distribute estimates
- National estimates by age and sex
- State totals estimates (0-64, 65+)