# Presentation: 390319

## The Atmospheric SciencesEntering the 21st Century

**Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate****National Research Council**
**1998**

**A Strategy for Providing **
**Atmospheric Information**

**Federal Coordinator  for Meteorological Services**
**3 December 2001 **

***A Summary of***

## Tropical and Polar Air Currents

**Tropical and Polar Air Currents**
**Robert Fitzroy, *****The Weather*****, 1863**

**NOAA Library**

## Earliest Signal Service weather map on record in NOAA Library September 1, 1872 

- Earliest Signal Service weather map on record in NOAA Library September 1, 1872

## Re-analysis, Tor Bergeron, 1933

**Re-analysis, Tor Bergeron, 1933**

## ENIAC

**ENIAC**

**Electronic Numerical Integrator and Calculator**

**First numerical weather forecast--March 1950**
**24 hours**
**Quasi-geostgrophic barotropic vorticity equation**

## Moore’s Law

**2005**

**2010**

**ASCI White**

**Pacific**

**EDSAC 1**

**UNIVAC 1**

**IBM 7090**

**CDC 6600**

**IBM 360/195**

**CDC 7600**

**Cray 1**

**Cray X-MP**

**Cray 2**

**TMC CM-2**

**TMC CM-5**

**Cray T3D**

**ASCI Red**

**1950**

**1960**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**1 KFlop/s**

**1 MFlop/s**

**1 GFlop/s**

**1 TFlop/s**

**1 PFlop/s**

**Moore’s Law**

**Jack Dongarra****Univ. of Tennesee**

## Slide 7

## Atmospheric Observations

- 	Global Data Coverage
- 			2001

- 00 UTC 11/29/01

## Observations         + Equations	          + Computers       Produce Forecasts

- Observations         + Equations	          + Computers       Produce Forecasts

## Contemporary Realities, Key Ideas

** ****Observations, analysis, and models are inseparably ****     linked and must be improved together**

** ****Observational and information technologies present ****     new challenges and opportunities**

** ****Atmospheric information services are becoming****    more distributed**

**Scientific opportunities exceed resources; ****    choices must be made**

**Leadership and coordination are necessary for the****    atmospheric sciences to contribute to national goals**

## The BASC 21st Century Vision

**Improvements in atmospheric observations and scientific understanding will combine with advances in technology to enhance atmospheric analysis and prediction.**

**Society will enjoy greater confidence in atmospheric information and will manage weather and climate risk more decisively and with greater sophistication.**

**Advances in information technology will foster broader**
**and more effective use of atmospheric services.**

## Acquiring

**	**
**	****	**** ****the information**

## Imperatives for Atmospheric Science

**Imperative 1.   Optimize and integrate global**
**	****	****    ****observation capabilities**

**Imperative 2.  Develop new observation**
**	****	****   ****capabilities**

## Optimize Observations...

**Develop a **_**specific plan**_** for optimizing and integrating global observations and models of the atmosphere, oceans, and land.**

**Monitor  weather, climate, and air quality, and obtain the information needed to improve the predictive numerical models used for weather, climate, atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and near-Earth space activities.**

**Examine proposed configurations with rigorous observing system simulation experiments.**

## Optimize Observations (cont)

**  ****Commercial aircraft observations**
**  ****Global positioning system (GPS)**
**  ****Adaptive strategies**

**  ****Integration with modeling efforts**
**  ****Increases in computer power**
**  ****Assimilation of new forms of data (radiance, EOS)**
**  ****Multiple uses of data bases**
**  ****International collaboration**

_***New observing opportunities***_

_***Issues and requirements***_

## Develop New Observation Capabilities

**Commit to a **_**strategy, priorities, and a program**_** ****to develop new capabilities for observing critical variables such as ****    ****	****water in all its phases,  ****         ****	****wind, ****         ****	****aerosols and key chemical constituents, and****                 near-Earth space phenomena **

**all on       **
**        ****	****temporal and spatial scales ****              relevant to forecasts and applications**

## Broaden our Capabilities 

** ****Improve understanding of atmospheric interactions with other components of the Earth System and enhance understanding of interactions between atmospheric phenomena of different scales ****(USWRP and USGCP).**

**Apply the discipline of  forecasting (predict, verify, learn from errors) with experimental forecasts in atmospheric chemistry, climate, and space weather.**

## <footer>

- <date/time>

## Distributing and using

**	**
**	****atmospheric information**

## The Atmospheric

**The Atmospheric**
**Science and Services**
**Partnership**

## Leadership and Management

**Develop a **_**strategic viewpoint**_**  to maximize the benefits of an increasingly distributed national and global structure for providing atmospheric information.**
**Maintain the free and open exchange of weather observations between nations.**
**Enhance the flows of information between the partners in atmospheric science and services and to the public.**

## Slide 22

## Forecast skill and potential risk

**0.1**

**1**

**10**

**100**

**1000**

**10000**

**100000**

**0.01**

**Days**

**Forecast Skill**

**Potential Risk**

**Risk or Cost**

**Skill**

## Slide 24

## Slide 25

## A TerascaleWorld

**Terabit****Network**

**NWS**

**Research**

**Users, Partners**

**A TerascaleWorld**

**Teraflop****Computers**

## Some laws of information...

**Information is *****not***** conserved--it multiplies. **
**We can all use the same information without wearing it out.**
**Some of us convert information into more valuable forms, some do not.**
**A lot of ‘information’ is wrong, some of it thanks to computer routines.**
** ****Information flows both downhill and uphill. **
**Information frustrates almost all attempts at confinement, and yet fills all available hard discs. **
**Trying to stop the flow of information is like trying to stop the tide.**

## The challenge...

**  ****integrate and optimize observations and modeling**
**  ****work together in an increasingly distributed****    atmospheric information system**
**  ****acquire the resources for scientific advance**
**  ****and then drive to results and improved service**

**To achieve the vision of significantly improved**** atmospheric information and services, we must**

## A PetascaleWorld

**Petabit****Network**

**NWS**

**Research**

**Users, Partners**

**A PetascaleWorld**

**Teraflop****Computers**

## Slide 30

## Slide 31