# Presentation: 659564

## A Method for Developing Geographic-Economic Wind Supply CurvesChina Case Study

- David Kline
- Strategic Energy Analysis and Applications Center
- Energy Analysis Seminar
- 10 July 2008

**Notes:**
Thanks for coming
Smile

## Overview

- Acknowledgements
- Goal of study
- “Geospatial” supply curves (GSC)
- Example: Zhangbei region, China
- China’s planned use of GSCs
- Refinements and extensions
- Applications beyond China

## Acknowledgments

**Acknowledgments**

- Sponsors
- Climate Change Division,
- USEPA
- United Nations
- Environment Program
- Chinese partners
- China Hydropower Engrg. Consulting Co.
- Energy Bureau, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)
- NREL team
- Donna Heimiller, Shannon Cowlin, Ray George, Dennis Elliott

## Goals of this Effort

- Support NDRC in developing and implementing plans for 30-50 GW of new wind capacity
- Provide assessment and planning tools for prospect areas
- Provide proof-of-concept analysis for Zhangbei region, Hebei Province
- Develop methods that can be replicated by Chinese partners in dozens more prospect areas and used by officials and others at the Provincial level

**Notes:**
Jumps off from discussion with Energy Bureau
Provincial level implementation  support to provinces in implementation

## Geospatial Supply Curve (GSC)

- Supply curve linked with geographic information
- Correspondence between points on the supply curve and maps of the locations included at that level of supply
- GIS enables additional geographic-economic analysis

## Overview of Methodology

**Notes:**
Columns
Left: Map vector inputs
Right: Economic and hardware data (non-geographic)
Middle: Flow of calculations

## Zhangbei Wind Resource Data

**Notes:**
Data source: SWERA, funding from UNEP

## Cost of Power at Wind Farm

- Background
- Concession areas developed by private sector companies
- Feed-in tariff determined by bidding
- Cost and finance model
- Assume developers require 10% return (IRR) on after tax cash flow
- Solve for feed-in tariff that provides that IRR
- Cost and performance data and project finance model developed by CHECC

**Notes:**
Fits nicely into framework of central planner
STEPS OF LCOE
Avg WS  Weibull (shape parameter 2)
Weibull + power curve  annual generation
Generation  revenue(p)  ATCF (p); 
Find p s.t. IRR (ATCF) = 10%
Define LCOE = p

## Point of Measurement

- Cost at the wind farm
- Cost after connecting the wind farm to the existing grid
- Local infrastructure costs, e.g. roads
- Cost of transmission on the existing grid
- Point of measurement
- Available capacity
- Congestion pricing
- Load flow

**Notes:**
Blue: done in this analysis
Green: Originally contemplated, but data not available
Red: Beyond the scope of these methods
Why point of measurement matters (use map)
Difficulty of assessing available capactiy
Load flow—can’t completely control where power flows

## Impact of Terrain

| Slope
(Percent) | Turbine density
(MW km-2) |
| --- | --- |
| 
0 – 3 | 
5 |
| 
3 – 5 | 
3 |
| 
5 – 10 | 
2.5 |

## Installed Capacity Map

## Result: Geospatial Supply Curve(GSC) Part I

## GSC Part II

- Locations where price < 0.5 Yuan kWh-1

**Notes:**
Can do this for any point on the supply curve

## Limitations of this Implementation

- Data limitations
- Short- and long-distance transmission costs
- Limited description of existing transmission network
- Resulting analysis limitations
- No transmission costs included
- No consideration of transmission capacity limits or load flow (Kirchhoff's law)

**Notes:**
Kirchoff’s law  100% can’t be delivered to specified point of measurement.

## Potential Uses of the GSC

- Assessment: supply curve for prospect area
- Planning: select locations that meet cost and other criteria using geographic information system (GIS)
- Map potential wind park areas
- Locate new roads, estimate costs
- Other regional planning issues

**Notes:**
Considering coarser-grain study of entire country using related methodology

## NDRC’s Plans to Use this Method

- CHECC to help provincial partners apply (refined) method to more prospect areas
- National goal of 30 GW by 2020  (potential is much greater)
- Strong provincial role in planning and implementation
- Large new areas identified in e.g., Gansu Province, Shanghai area
- Method to be expanded to address additional regional planning issues, e.g.
- Road and other infrastructure for development
- Intra- and inter-regional transmission planning
- Refined method can support both provincial officials and national grid operators

**Notes:**
This is the big score.

## Potential Improvements

- Fill data gaps
- Add consideration of pumped storage
- Transmission planning, load flow scenarios
- Will require coordination with range of partners in China and with related efforts

**Notes:**
Data: 
Additional resource assessment
Wind speed distribution
Grid locations and capacity availability
Roads & infrastructure costs

## Thanks for your attention!

- David Kline
- (303) 384-7435
- _[david_kline@nrel.gov](mailto:david_kline@nrel.gov)_
- Related NREL technical report
- _[http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/43053.pdf](http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/43053.pdf)_
- (Or _[http://tinyurl.com/5zgu3q](http://tinyurl.com/5zgu3q)__ _)

## Cost of Power at Wind Farm

- Annual average wind speed  wind speed distribution W(s) –Weibull with shape parameter 2
- Combine with turbine power curve, P(s) to get annual generation, G, using
- G  after tax cash flow ATCF (p)
- Solve for p such that internal rate of return
- 	IRR [ATCF(p)] = 10%