# Presentation: 664573

## 
Science and Technology Infusion Plan
for
Tropical Cyclones

**Science and Technology Infusion Plan**
**for**
**Tropical Cyclones**

*Daniel Meléndez*

- NWS S&T Committee
- September 17, 2002

## Outline

**Team Composition**
**Vision / Benefits**
**Goals / Targets**
**Key Information Gaps **
**Key Solutions**
**Outstanding R & D Needs**
**Summary**

## Tropical CyclonesTeam Composition

**Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)**
**Scott Kiser (NWS/OS)**
**Richard Knabb (TPC)**
**Miles Lawrence (TPC)**
**Xiaofan Li (NESDIS)**
**Frank Marks (OAR/HRD)**

**Morris Bender (GFDL)**
**Scott Braun (NASA/GFDL)**
**Gregg Engel (JTWC)**
**Naomi Surgi (NCEP/EMC)**
**Robert Tuleya (NCEP)**
**Frank Wells (WFO/Guam)**
**Hugh Willoughby (OAR/HRD)**

## Tropical CyclonesVision / Benefits

_**2025 Vision**_
**48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm**
**48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt**

**Save Lives / Enhanced Public Safety**
**Improved Response Capability of Emergency Managers**
**Mitigate Property Loss**
**Economic Impact Increasingly Complex (coastal development....)**

## Tropical CyclonesGoals/Targets to FY 12

| Existing GPRA Performance Measure | FY01 Skill | FY07 Goal | FY12 Target  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 48-hr Track Error (nm) | 125 | 128 | 90 |

| Other Performance Measure | FY01 Skill | FY07 Target | FY12 Target |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 48-hr Intensity Error (kt) | 15.9 | 15.4 | 13.9 |

## Hydrologic Services Goals/Targets to FY 12

| Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan (S) Performance Measure | Current Skill | FY07            Goal     Target |  | FY12 Target  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 48-hr Track Error (nm)              (G) | 125 | 128 | 120 | 90 |
| 48-hr Intensity Error (kt)           (S) | 15.9 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 13.9 |

## Tropical CyclonesKey Information Gaps (not ranked)

**Tropical Cyclones***Key Information Gaps (not ranked)*

**Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing Storms**
** **
**More Accurate Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast**
**Understanding of Model Guidance Uncertainty**
**More Precise Position of Circulation Center**
**Higher Resolution Storm Wind Data**

## Tropical Cyclones Key S&T Solutions

| Gap | Solutions | Impact |
| --- | --- | --- |
| More Accurate Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast
 | Targeted/Adaptive Observations
NOAA Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrade
Advanced DA of Remote and In-Situ Atmosphere and Ocean Observations 
Aircraft and WSR-88D Doppler radar winds
Ensembles
Hurricane WRF 
JHT Results | About 12% Increase in Numerical Model Intensity Forecast Skill
About 25% in Increase in Numerical Model Track Forecast Skill  |
| Understanding of Model Guidance Uncertainty | Ensembles
Statistical Guidance
JHT Results
Training | Reduced Overwarning of Coastal Hazards |

**Tropical Cyclones**** ***Key S&T Solutions*

## Tropical Cyclones Key S&T Solutions

| Gap | Solution | Impact |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing Storms
 | JHT Results
Ocean Observations
Hurricane WRF (Improved Physics...)
GPS Dropsonde
SFMR | Saved Lives/Enhanced Public Safety
Improved Track and Intensity  Forecasts
Improve Other Measures (Marine, QPF, Aviation) |
| Higher Resolution Storm Wind Data
 | Aircraft radar winds
Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades (e.g., SATCOMM...)
WSR-88D radar winds (done) | Improved Intensity and Track Forecasts
Improved Storm Physics
Improved Storm-Surge Forecast
Improved QPF |
| More Precise Position of Circulation Center | Satellite/Aircraft Remote Sensing | Reduced Track Error |

**Tropical Cyclones**** ***Key S&T Solutions*

## Tropical Cyclones Key S&T SolutionsCurrent Programmatic Phase

**     ****Adaptive Obs**

***Hurricane WRF**

- Deployment

- OTE

- DTE

- R&D

**Observations**

**DA/Models**

***Advanced DA of Satellite Data**

**     *****Aircraft Upgrades (SFMR, GPS dropsondes...)**

** ****Targeted Obs***

***Oceanic DA**

**Enabling Process**

***JHT Tech Transfer**

**HWRF 7km**

**Core Init**

***GFS Ensembles**

***Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques**

***Airborne Upgrade Radar Wind DA**

## Tropical CyclonesOutstanding R&D Needs

**Rapid Intensity Changing Storms**
**Shear Effects on Track and Intensity**
**Statistical “Guidance-on-Guidance” on Model Output**
**Improved Data Assimilation**
**Improved Model Physics (microphysics, air-sea fluxes...)**
**Model Physics Sensitivities**
**Ensemble Techniques**
**Adaptive Observations/Targeting**
**Predictability Limits**

## Tropical Cyclones Summary

**Tropical Cyclones**** ***Summary*

_**R&D Needs**_
**Rapid Intensity Changing Storms**
**Shear Effects on Track & Intensity**
**Statistical “Guidance-on-Guidance**
**Improved Data Assimilation**
**Improved Model Physics**
**Model Physics Sensitivities**
**Ensemble Techniques**
**Adaptive Observations**
**Predictability Limits**

- Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades
- Expand Targeted Observations

- Implement Hurricane WRF
- Data Assimilation
- Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques
- Expand Adaptive Strategies
- New Satellite Remote Sensing

**Increasing Performance**

- Joint Hurricane Testbed

**2007**

**2012**

**2020**

**2002**

_**Vision**_
***48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm***
***48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt***

## Tropical CyclonesSummary

**Improved track and intensity performances depend mostly on advances in numerical prediction/data assimilation**
**Intensity error performance is virtually “flat” – awaits significantly improved storm core specification and numerical forecasting R & D**

## BACKGROUND SLIDES

**Tropical Cyclones**

## Backup

## Backup

## Public
Media
Federal, State, Local Government
DOD
53 WRS
State EMA’s
WMO RA-IV
Mariners
Private Sector

**Media**
**Federal, State, Local Government**
**DOD**
**53 WRS**
**State EMA’s**
**WMO RA-IV**
**Mariners**
**Private Sector**

**Tropical Cyclones***Primary Customers/Partners*

## Tropical CyclonesKey Products/Services

## Tropical CyclonesS & T  Roadmap

**(Insert Spreadsheet)**