# Presentation: 661898

## New Orleans/Baton Rouge Weather Forecast Office and National Geodetic Survey:25th Annual National Hurricane Conference, April 14-18, 2003, Hyatt Regency, New Orleans, LAWeather Forecast ProcessWhere the rubber meets the road and dreaded “Subsidence”

- Paul S. Trotter, Meteorologist-in-Charge
- NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge
- and
- Charlie Challstrom, Director
-  National Geodetic Survey

## Where the rubber meets the road and dreaded Subsidence: Checklists are important

***Building certified teamed relationships, coalitions, working groups, and dependencies***
***NOAA Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Collaboration with Geodetic Services, Gulf Coast Hurricane Tour, SRH, NWSH, and TPC/NHC Coordination, Sister Office Coordination, State and Federal agencies***
***Emergency Management Coordination inclusive of individual LA Parish or MS County and task force meetings, table tops,  conferences, and face to face briefings***
***Media Workshops***
***Staff, Communication, and Equipment Preparedness***
***The event, assurances, and efficiencies ***
***Post Mortem, Findings, Identifying Solutions, and resources***

**Lake Pontchartrain storm**
**surge at Mandeville**

**Seiche example as initial**
**surge ends and return flow**
**begins when winds change**
**direction**.

## Where the rubber meets the road and dreaded Subsidence: Storm History and Concerns

**Climate and Frequency (1886-2001)...55 Tropical Cyclones and 26 Hurricanes have passed within 75nmi of N.O.**
**Within Parish/County Warning Area...65 Tropical Cyclones and 35 Hurricanes**
**18 Cat 3-5 Major Hurricanes**
**27.7% of all U.S. land falling major hurricanes 1900 to 2001 (18 out of 65)**
**CAT 1 every    9 years (w/i 75nmi of N.O)**
**CAT 2 every  19 years**
**CAT 3 every  32 years**
**CAT 4 every  66 years**
**CAT 5 every 170 years**

## Where the rubber meets the road and dreaded Subsidence: Recurrence Intervals

**Longest Stretch without Tropical Storms was 5 years and 330 days (9/4/49-8/1/55) and for Hurricanes was 21 years and 23 days (8/26/26-9/19/47)**
**Shortest Stretch for Tropical Storms is 2 days (10/15/23-10/17/23)**
**Shortest Stretch for Hurricanes is 25 days (Hurricanes #8 and #10 9/7/1893-10/2/1893)**

**Let us not forget**
**that there were 3**
**Tropical Storms (Bertha,**
**Hannah, & Isidore) and**
**1 Hurricane (Lili) that**
**impacted the area.**
**Hurricane Lili and**
**Tropical Storm Isidore**
**hit the LIX Parish/County**
**Warning Area within a week**
**of each other!  Note Isidore was a Hurricane!**

**Tropical Storm Bertha**
**Satellite and Radar Imagery**

## Why is the ASOS at Lakefront Airport (NEW) reporting unusual data (Isidore)?

**Why is the ASOS at Lakefront Airport (NEW) reporting unusual data (Isidore)?**
**Central Gulf Buoy reports highest wind value (Lili)!**

***National Guard troops***
***deployed to aid evacuations***
***in Louisiana and Mississippi.***
***Oil industry impacted and shut***
***down several days.***
***Significant crop damage.***
***Storms generate tornado activity.***
***Rainfall and storm surge cause***
***problems for residents. ***
***West Nile Mosquito earlier***
***impact on area. ***
***Area elections postponed.***

## Slide 6

## Gulf of Mexico. 

- Although this slide is busy, the far left upper corner
- shows the path of
- Isidore as a Tropical
- Storm, Hurricane,
- and Tropical Storm
- again.  The radar image
- next to this shows the eye
- off of Yucatan.  The far
- bottom left demonstrates
- the wind swath of
- hurricane (red) and storm
- force winds (yellow >39
- mph and blue >50 mph).
- The bottom right is a
- satellite photo of Isidore as
- a Hurricane off of Yucatan.
- Note the large wind field
- covering most of the
- Gulf of Mexico.

## Here is another busy slide. This is a slide with Lili’s

- information.  The far left upper corner has Lili’s path and the black and white photo shows Lili’s surface pressure of 938 mbs in the middle Gulf.  The upper right satellite photo has max winds of 138 mph gusting to 168 (CAT 4).  Note the defined eye south of
- Louisiana’s coast.  The wind
- swath is the bottom left as
- forecast and displayed on “hurrevac.”  The
- lower right satellite photo
- shows Lili’s eye off the coast
- of Cuba.  Winds there were
- 96 mph with gusts to 120
- mph (CAT 2).

##    Where the rubber meets the road and dreaded Subsidence:

_***	***__***	***__***Maritime, energy, and agriculture***_

**1. Area hosts the World’s Busiest Waterway (In excess of 6000 ocean vessels/year).**
**2. America’s most Intermodal port with excellent rail service, the Port of New Orleans entertains and hosts over 70 steamship lines, nearly 20 barge lines, and nearly 80 truck lines.**
**3. Port of New Orleans is the World’s largest Wharf well over 2 miles and the only port served by six class one rail lines.**
**4. No. 1 Coffee, Steel, and Natural Rubber Port.**
**5. Worlds longest Bridge (Causeway over Lake Pontchartrain)**
**6. Worlds longest over river crossing rail line (Huey P. Long)**
**7. 27% of nation’s oil originates in area and 27% of domestic natural gas production.**
**8. Area houses over 90 Petrochemical plants between New Orleans and Baton Rouge along the Mississippi River.**
**9. Area attributes to many Wild Life Refuges, Marsh Lands, Food, Fishing, and one of the most Culturally Diverse Populations in the U.S. with a large casino presence.**
**10.The area is located in some of the lowest terrain in the U.S.**
**11.There are over 1 million Gulf helicopter flights a year**
**12. 73,000 miles of oil & gas pipelines.**
**13. Only state w/deep water port loop for offshore supertanker traffic****.**
**14. 50% of all agricultural exports/imports pass through area.**

## When the rubber meets the road and dreaded Subsidence: Bottom Line and Charlie Challstrom, Director National Geodetic Survey

**Know your area**
**Subsidence Facts**
**It’s more than politics, economics, and what we think**
**It’s about saving lives, property, enhancing the economy, and taking care of the environment**
**It’s about our people!**

## NOAA National Geodetic Survey

***NOAA National Geodetic Survey***

***Charles W. Challstrom, Director***
***April 17, 2003***

**Notes:**
Summary of National Geodetic Survey and its role in Hurricane Protections

## Shoreline Mapping

**Notes:**
Since 1807, NGS and its predecessor agencies have performed shoreline mapping, 
which includes monitoring of shoreline change.

## Height Modernization

**Notes:**
Height Modernization and Coastal Management:
Improve the Accuracy of Flood Plain Mapping
Enable Scientists to Better Map Coastal Erosion
Enhance GIS Decision Making Tools for Coastal Managers
Provide a Foundation for Monitoring Subsidence and Measuring Sea Level Rise
Improve Boundary Determinations

Height Modernization Program was begun in California 
To deal with traditional navigation as well as 
seismic monitoring, sea level rise, flooding, and water delivery 

GPS is a tool used today to measure heights – on land and on water

## Height Matters

**Height Matters**

**Notes:**
Height Modernization is particularly important to the Gulf Coast area where subsidence has major impact, and not just when hurricanes occur.

## Subsidence in Louisiana

**Subsidence ****in Louisiana**

**Notes:**
Subsidence
This is recent photo of a tidal bench mark in Terrebone Parish, LA
Set in 1986, below ground level.  The rod the disk is set on penetrates the ground until it rests on bed rock.
The associated tidal station, which is used as a reference to accurately predict tides and water levels, will itself sink as does the ground level.
Using these subsidence-proof bench marks allows NOAA to ensure that the tidal station serves as an accurate reference for tidal and sea level changes.

876 2928 A TIDAL_AH7270

## Bridge at Bayou LaFouche

**Bayou LaFouche, Louisiana**

**Notes:**
Bridge during Hurricane season

## Map of Louisiana

**Notes:**
The Raceland to Grand Isle GPS Route 
is important to everyday personal and commercial transportation,
as well as emergency evacuations in Louisiana

## Evacuation Route Survey

**Notes:**
GPS RTK was observed along this route
Leveling will help confirm subsidence

## Louisiana Evacuation Route SurveyControl Station

**ENG1 - ENGLISH TURN 1 CORS **
**LUMC - LUMCON CORS **
**BVHS - BOOTHVILLE CORS**

**Notes:**
Red triangles are CORS sites
Blue diamonds are GPS Observation sites

## Equipment Set up in Louisiana

**Notes:**
Calibrating 2 meter fixed height poles 
and synchronizing the base position
Roy Anderson, Kendall Fancher, Cindy Craig and Davey Crockett in Louisiana
Davey Crockett at N221

## Equipment Set up in Louisiana

**Notes:**
Calibrating 2 meter fixed height poles 
and synchronizing the base position
Roy Anderson, Kendall Fancher, Cindy Craig and Davey Crockett in Louisiana
Davey Crockett at N221

## RACELAND to GRAND ISLE1982, 1993, 2002 Observed Heights2002 Predicted Heights

- RACELAND to GRAND ISLE1982, 1993, 2002 Observed Heights2002 Predicted Heights

**Notes:**
South Louisiana evacuation routes are sinking

Louisiana Spatial Reference Center and NGS are 
investigating to determine how fast they are sinking

Preliminary results:  approximately one foot in 20 years

## G358 and Q3591982, 1993, 2002 Observed Heights2002 Predicted Heights

- G358 and Q3591982, 1993, 2002 Observed Heights2002 Predicted Heights

**Notes:**
Benchmarks movement based on 2 decades of surveying
Predicted and Observed Values for 2002 confirm validity of models

## Mounting of RTK

**Notes:**
Kendall Fancher and Davey Crockett preparing for RTK GPS

## Mounting of RTK

**Notes:**
Kendall Fancher and Davey Crockett preparing for RTK GPS

## Mounting of RTK

**Notes:**
Kendall Fancher and Davey Crockett preparing for RTK GPS

## Monitoring Coastal Subsidence with GPS

**Notes:**
GULFNET 
Existing Coastal Subsidence GPS Network established by Louisiana State University,
begun in 1997
The CORS stations (purple) are certified by NGS and support NSRS

## LIDAR

**Notes:**
Lidar taken December 7, 2002 along the Louisiana Evacuation Route
Just south of Golden Meadow (which is between Raceland and Grand Isle)
1 meter digital elevation level

## Working Together

**Notes:**
Louisiana’s Coast Area.  Yellow depicts land between 0-1 meters, and near the continental shelf (Roy Dokka, April 2003).
NOAA (NWS and NGS) will continue to work together with LSU and others to monitor Gulf Coast Subsidence.
Projections for the future will be provided in order to help local authorities plan for development, rerouting when necessary and so that those involved in long-term reclamation can prioritize.