# Presentation: 504652

## The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on U.S. Energy Markets 

**Energy Information Administration**

**California Air Resources Board**
**6th Haagen-Smit Symposium**** **
**May 8-11, 2006**
**Aptos, CA**

***The Impact of Higher Energy Prices on U.S. Energy Markets***** **

## EIA Has Reassessed Its Long-Term Oil Price Projection

**Major oil producing countries pace investment more consistent with higher oil price path**
**Investment impediments more persistent, even after several years of relatively higher oil prices**
**Cost of doing business increasing**
**Not due to “Peak Oil” considerations, although we are following this issue closely**

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2004 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006*

## U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030

**U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030**
**(2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2030

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**100**

**134**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006*

- History

- Projections

**AEO2006**

**AEO2005**

**133**

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030

**U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

- History

- Projections

**Petroleum**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

## U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,

**U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector,**
**2004, 2025, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006*

## U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports,**
**1960-2030 (million barrels per day)**

**Consumption**

**Domestic Supply**

**Net Imports**** **

**58%**

**62%**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**Industrial**

**Transportation**

**Residential and Commercial**

**Electric Power**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption by Mode, 1980-2030

**(quadrillion Btu)**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

**Light-Duty Vehicles**

**Rail**

**Heavy-Duty Vehicles**

**Water**

**Air**

## Transportation Travel Demand by Mode,

**1980-2030 (index, 2004 = 1)**

**Heavy Trucks**

**Light-Duty Vehicles**

**Aircraft**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Travel, 1980-2030

**(billion vehicle miles traveled)**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006*

**AEO2006**

**AEO2005**

## U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 1980-2030

**(miles per gallon)**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006*

**AEO2006**

**AEO2005**

## U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 2004, 2025, and 2030

**(miles per gallon)**

- Note: Does not include impact of proposed increase in fuel economy standards based on vehicle footprint for light trucks.

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006*

## U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid and Diesel Vehicles,

**U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid and Diesel Vehicles,**
**2004, 2025, and 2030 (thousand units)**

- *Only includes hybrids that provide tractive power to the vehicle.

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006*

## Average Fuel Economy of New Light-Duty Vehicles,

**1980-2030 (miles per gallon)**

**Cars**

**All Light-Duty Vehicles**

**Light Trucks**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

- History

- Projections

## Sales of Advanced Technology Light-Duty Vehicles,

**Sales of Advanced Technology Light-Duty Vehicles,**
**2015 and 2030 (thousand vehicles sold)**

**Hybrids**

**Alcohol**

**Turbo Direct Injection Diesel**

**Gaseous**

**Electric**

**Fuel Cell**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Transportation Fuel Use in Two Technology Cases

**U.S. Transportation Fuel Use in Two Technology Cases**
**(percent change from reference case)**

**2005 Technology**

**High Technology**

**Light-Duty**
**Vehicles**

**Freight**
**Trucks**

**Aircraft**

**Light-Duty**
**Vehicles**

**Freight**
**Trucks**

**Aircraft**

**2010**

**2030**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Transportation Fuel Efficiency in Two Technology Cases,

**U.S. Transportation Fuel Efficiency in Two Technology Cases,**
**(percent change from reference case)**

**2005 Technology**

**High Technology**

**Light-Duty**
**Trucks**

**Freight**
**Trucks**

**Aircraft**

**Light-Duty**
**Trucks**

**Freight**
**Trucks**

**Aircraft**

**2010**

**2030**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2006*****, February 2006**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2005*****, July 2005**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****Dec 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**