# Presentation: 200118

## Sand and Dust Storm Monitoring:A) International Research Coordination, and B) Example of Dust Modelling Developments 

**Slobodan Nickovic**
** ****WMO Research Department**
- snickovic@wmo.int

- CMA 20 March 2007

## International Coordination within WMO 

***WMO provides expertise and international cooperation in ***
*** ******weather, ***
*** ******climate, ***
*** ******hydrology and water resources ***
*** ******environmental issues ***
***contributing so to safety and well-being of people and to the economic benefit of all nations.***

**International Coordination within WMO **
**in Dust Monitoring Research**

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**Notes:**
Staff are thanked for their attention and are invited to ask questions. Other presentations will follow

## Recent WMO restructuring puts together weather and climate research; future vision: hydrology research to be added as well

***Recent WMO restructuring puts together weather and climate research; future vision: hydrology research to be added as well***

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## WMO Research Department

**CLIC**

- CLIVAR

- GEWEX

**SPARC**

**Verification**

- Tropical Meteorology

- THORPEX

- Nowcasting

- MesoScale

- CAS

**SERA**

- GAW

**JSC**

**Reactive Gas &**
**Oxidizing Capacity**

**Aerosols Warnings **
**and Assessment**

**GHG Cycles:**
**Fluxes UNFCCC**

**Ozone Depletion**
**Vienna Convention**

**Air-Surface **
**Chemical Exchange**

**GURME **
**Urban-Regional **
**Air Quality**

- Sand and Dust Storm Warning System

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**Notes:**
Target Phenomena
 Convectively Coupled Waves / MJO
 Easterly Waves / Tropical Cyclones / ET
 Diurnal Cycle
 Monsoons
Completion of the publication and follow-up actions to the WMO/IUGG report “Aerosol Pollution Impact on Precipitation: A Scientific Review”
Initiative Goals
Achieve significant gains in forecast skill by 2012 in:
Medium-range tropical weather forecasts, particularly disturbed conditions associated with organized convection.
Extended-range/subseasonal forecasts of the MJO.
Medium-to-extended range extratropical forecasts derived from improved tropical weather/climate and tropical-extratropical interactions.

Fundamental Science Questions
What are the most crucial elements of the large-scale circulation that influence the development, organization and maintenance of tropical convection?
Under what circumstances and with what mechanisms is energy and momentum transferred between the convective, mesoscale, synoptic scale, and the large/planetary scale? 
How does organized tropical convection interact with the extra-tropical circulation?

## SDS PROCESS

**SDS PROCESS**

- Driven _by_ and
- interacting _with_ the atmosphere

- Afghanistan dry lake dust sources
- MODIS 2, June 2001

- _Global_ process
- based on _local_ origins

- Source: S. Kinne MPI, Hamburg, Germany

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## Close-up look:

**Close-up look:**
**Dust storm in Niamey 2008 **

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## SDS Impacts

- Human Health
- 	(asthma, infections, meningitis in Africa, valley fever in the America’s)
- Agriculture
- Marine productivity – dust as nutrient
- Interaction with the atmosphere - improved  weather prediction and climate assessment
- Aviation (air disasters); Ground transportation

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## SDS forecast models as of July 2008

- 40 WMO members showed interest to improve SDS forecasts

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## WMO SDS-WAS development  

**2003: ****First operational dust forecast based on the NCEP/Eta (Nickovic 1994)**
**......**
**September 2004:** **International Symposium on SDS**, Beijing, CMA - WMO SDS created
**2005**: **WMO Survey**  –  40+ WMO Members expressed interest in improving capacities for SDS monitoring.
**2006**: proposed Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Assessment System (SDS-WAS).

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## May 2007: 14th WMO Congress endorsed launching of the SDS-WAS. 

**May 2007**: **14th WMO Congress** endorsed launching of the SDS-WAS.
**November 2007**: **WMO/GEO Expert Meeting on SDS-WAS** (Barcelona Supercomputing Centre); 100 international experts from research, observations, forecasting and user countries.

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## June 2008: SDS-WAS Draft Implementation Plan

**Beginning of 2008**: China and Spain became **SDS-WAS Regional Centers**
**June 2008**: **SDS-WAS ****Draft** **Implementation Plan**

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## The SDS-WAS mission 

**The SDS-WAS mission**
- ``...to enhance the ability of countries to deliver timely and quality sand and dust storm forecasts, observations, information and knowledge to users through an international partnership of research and operational communities...``

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## Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory 

**Regional node 1**

- Regional Center 1

- Partner 1

- Partner 2

- Partner 3

- Partner 4

- Partner 5

- Partner n

- ....

**Regional node n**

**Regional node 2**

- WMO SDS-WAS

**...****.**

**Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory **
**and Assessment System **
**Draft Implementation Plan**

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##            			Implementation  

**I Phase (2009-2010)**:
- Regional partnership through CAS and CBS
- SDS monitoring with current routine forecast and observation capabilities; standardized presentation of products
- Near real-time quantitative and qualitative verification system
- User portals in two regions; an example of the regional portal (a working version, still in development)
- _[http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/](http://www.bsc.es/projects/earthscience/DREAM/)_

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## Slide 15

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## II Phase (2011-2013): 

**II Phase (2011-2013)**:
- Joint verification of the different dust forecasts  and model inter-comparisons
- Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting
- User-oriented studies (events affecting air/ground transport; impacts on public health and dust, etc.)
- Research studies (saltation/emission process; size distribution etc.)
- SDS warning at national levels

- CMA 20 March 2007