# Presentation: 348424

## Brian McInerneyHydrologistNational Weather ServiceHydrologic OutlookMarch 2004

## Overview

- Water Supply forecasts for March 1st are expected to produce normal to below normal flows this spring.  The amounts are  based on basically two physical parameters at this time: snowpack and soil moisture.  Snowpack volumes range from above normal amounts in the south, and normal to below in the northern half of the state.  The Virgin, Escalante,  and Tooele river basins, including the Wasatch front, and the eastern Uinta mountain ranges currently have the largest snowpacks compared to average in the state.  Total snow accumulation statewide to this date has been a major improvement over past years.  However, soil moisture levels are lower than normal due to the dry fall months of 2003.  Expected loss to soil moisture infiltration can be expected to be approximately 10 percent higher than normal loss.
- Other aspects of the spring runoff that are yet to be known include the amount of snow collected during the remainder of March, and the spring climate.  Depending on temperature levels and precipitation amounts this spring, spring runoff numbers can vary 25% in either direction depending on the climate.
- If the spring climate produces a cool wet spring through May and then warms significantly, we can expect a much more efficient runoff and a higher yield.  If the climate is somewhat warm and somewhat cool, with a lack of precipitation, then expect these numbers to decline.  The spring climate scenario will become clearer as we move closer to April 1st.

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Temperature

## October Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 5.4 degrees warmer than average

## November Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 2.3 degrees cooler than average

## December Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 3.3 degrees warmer than average

## JanuarySalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 6.7 degrees cooler than average

## FebruarySalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 7.7 degrees cooler than average

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Precipitation

## Precipitation

## Precipitation

## Precipitation

## Precipitation

## Precipitation

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Snowpack

## Hydrologic OutlookBear River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic OutlookWeber River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic OutlookProvo River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic OutlookGreen River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic OutlookSevier River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic OutlookVirgin River Basin Snow

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Water Supply Forecast

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes

- March 1st 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
- Utah Area River Basins

- Much Above Normal
- Above Normal
- Normal
- Below Normal
- Much Below Normal

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Bear River Basin**

- Logan

- 74%

- Bear River

- Bear Lake

- Woodruff

- 47%

- Ut/Wy
- Stateline

- 74%

- Blacksmith Fork

- Hyrum

- 71%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Weber River Basin**

- Pineview Res.

- 80%

- Gateway

- 76%

- East Canyon Res.

- 90%

- Ogden River

- Lost Creek Res.

- 75%

- Weber River

- Chalk Creek

- 62%

- Oakley

- 69%

- Rockport Res.

- 63%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Six Creeks River Basin**

- Jordan River

- Little Cottonwood Creek

- 88%

- Big Cottonwood Creek

- 84%

- Mill Creek

- 97%

- Parleys Creek

- 90%

- Dell Fk.

- 91%

- City Creek

- 115%

- Emigration Ck.

- 118%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Provo River Basin**

- Utah Lake

- Woodland

- 72%

- Jordanelle Res

- 70%

- Deer Creek Res

- 76%

- American Fork

- 81%

- Castilla

- 81%

- 78%

- Provo River

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Green River Basin**

- Lake Powell Res.

- 82%

- Green River

- 80%

- Price River

- Strawberry Res.

- 93%

- Starvation Res.

- 86%

- Scofield Res.

- 91%

- Colorado River

- Duchesne

- 89%

- Myton

- 83%

- Upper Stillwater

- 94%

- Randlett

- 83%

- Moon Lake

- 93%

- Tabiona

- 88%

- Red Fleet Res.

- 110%

- Flaming Gorge Res.

- 69%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Sevier River Basin**

- Hatch

- 85%

- Kingston

- 81%

- 84%

- Cedar City

- 93%

- Sevier River East Fork

- Piute Res.

- 100%

- Minersville

- 34%

- Beaver River

- Beaver

- 74%

- Clear Creek

- Sevier River

- Sevier

- 82%

- Gunnison

- 75%

- Salina Creek

- Ephraim Creek

- Sevier Lake

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Virgin River Basin**

- Santa Clara River

- Virgin River North Fork

- Virgin River East Fork

- Pine Valley

- 84%

- Littlefield, AZ

- 91%

- Virgin

- 85%

- Hurricane

- 87%

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Long Range Forecast

## Long Range Precipitation ForecastMarch – April - May

## Long Range Temperature ForecastMarch – April - May

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Drought

## Hydrologic Outlook

## Contact Information

- http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Saltlake/river/presentations
- Additional Information
- Contact
- Brian McInerney
- Hydrologist
- National Weather Service
- 801-524-4377 w
- 801-971-2033 c
- brian.mcinerney@noaa.gov