# Presentation: 322603

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## Federal Agencies Funding Research on Vulnerabilty

- Federal Emergency Management Agency
- Corps of Engineers
- NOAA
- USGS
- EPA
- National Park and Fish & Wildlife Services

## Origins of Product 4.1

- 2002: Federal agencies promised products in *detailed* CCSP strategic plan
- “_Elevation Maps_ Depicting areas vulnerable to sea level”
- “_Planning maps_ depicting how state and local governments could respond to sea level rise”

- 2003:  Final CCSP strategic plan proposed SA 4.1:
- “Coastal Elevation and Sensitivity to Sea Level rise”
- EPA,
- NOAA,
- USGS

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## If we knew then what we know now...

*Agency Leads thought they had signed up to*...
- Synthesize the products in strategic plan
- Focus on Mid-Atlantic
- Focus on what’s new

*Mike said that CCSP wanted us to...*
- Synthesize all previous important work
- Scope should be entire United States
- Make sure it is not just EPA and NOAA studies

## Prospectus Process

- Prospectus
- Meets Mike’s criteria
- Clearly state required agency contributions
- CCSP decides which portions it wants

## Prospectus: Key Questions

- Which lands could be inundated by the tides without shore protection?
- How would the floodplain boundaries change?
- Which land could potentially erode?
- 4)	Ability of wetlands to vertically accrete:  Will sea level rise cause the area of wetlands to increase or decrease?
- 5)	Which lands have been set aside so that wetlands will migrate inland; which land [will] require shore protection? Which lands could be available for either?

*That is:  What happens to the land?*

## Other Questions

*For alternate scenarios of sea level rise and shore protection*
- Population, economic activity, land use in vulnerable area?
- Cost of shore protection?
- Ecological implications?
- Flood damages?
- Public’s access to (and use of) the shore?
*Decisions:*
- Which near-term actions (if any) justify different decisions?
- What options are being considered by specific organizations?
- What lessons can the Mid-Atlantic States learn from the unfolding consequences in Louisiana?

## Answers on three scales

- National—literature review
- Middle Atlantic
- Quantitative estimates of key questions
- GIS data for 1:100,000 maps provided to collaborators
- Estuary or county scale
- Case studies
- Maps and some key questions

## Participating Agencies

- Lead Agencies:  EPA, NOAA, USGS
- Supporting Agencies:  NASA, DOE

## Participating Agencies

- Lead Agencies:  EPA, NOAA, USGS
- Supporting Agencies:  NASA, DOE
- FEMA:  Elevations and flood damages

## Participating Agencies

- Lead Agencies:  EPA, NOAA, USGS
- Supporting Agencies:  NASA, DOE
- FEMA:  Elevations and flood damages
- Department of Defense
- Corps of Engineers--Shore protection
- 2nd largest landowner

## Participating Agencies

- Lead Agencies:  EPA, NOAA, USGS
- Supporting Agencies:  NASA, DOE
- FEMA:  Elevations and flood damages
- Department of Defense
- Corps of Engineers--Shore protection
- 2nd largest landowner
- DOI Parks and Refuges

## Federal Lead Authors

- Lead Agencies:  EPA (J. Titus), NOAA (S. Gill) , USGS (J. Williams)
- FEMA:  M. Craghan (Philadelphia District)
- Department of Defense--Corps of Engineers
- K. Nook (Baltimore District) and/or
- A. Morang (WES Vicksburg)
- DOI Parks and Refuges (D. Cahoon USGS)

## Non-Federal Contributing Authors

- EPA Contractors
- U of New Orleans (wetland key question)
- Many subs to contribute site-specific understanting
- Mapping Contractors
- NOAA Seagrant
- Volunteer Submissions Solicited
- Will provide the new data in time for analysis
- NOAA handling travel to meetings

## Schedule

- First batch of GIS Data Posted			January 06
- First FAC/Lead Authors Meeting			February 06
- Rough draft for Key Questions 1-5			April 05
- All GIS Data Posted 			April 05
- Rough draft for Case Studies			June 06
- Stakeholder Review Draft 			August 06
- Stakeholder Review complete			October 06
- Expert Review (first) draft 			December 06
- Public Comment (second) draft 			May 07
- Public Comment Period			August 07
- Third draft submitted to CCSP 			September 07
- Final product released			October 07

## Prospectus: Key Questions

- Which lands could be inundated by the tides without shore protection?
- How would the floodplain boundaries change?
- Which land could potentially erode?
- 4)	Ability of wetlands to vertically accrete:  Will sea level rise cause the area of wetlands to increase or decrease?
- 5)	Which lands have been set aside so that wetlands will migrate inland; which land [will] require shore protection? Which lands could be available for either?

*Remember:  This is still a proposal.*

## Prospectus: Key Questions

- Which lands could be inundated by the tides without shore protection?
*Need FEMA*
- Which land could potentially erode?
- 4)	Ability of wetlands to vertically accrete:  Will sea level rise cause the area of wetlands to increase or decrease?
- 5)	Which lands have been set aside so that wetlands will migrate inland; which land [will] require shore protection? Which lands could be available for either?

*Remember:  This is still a proposal*

## Prospectus: Key Questions

- Which lands could be inundated by the tides without shore protection?
*Need FEMA*
- Which land could potentially erode?
- 4)	Ability of wetlands to vertically accrete:  Will sea level rise cause the area of wetlands to        or decrease?
- 5)	Which lands have been set aside so that wetlands will migrate inland; which land [will] require shore protection? Which lands could be available for either?

*Remember:  This is still a proposal.*

*Need Wetland Accretion Specialists to pull together in January*

## Prospectus: Key Questions

- Which lands could be inundated by the tides without shore protection?  (EPA and NOAA)
*Need FEMA*
- Which land could potentially erode? (USGS)
- 4)	Ability of wetlands to vertically accrete:  Will sea level rise cause the area of wetlands to        or decrease?
- 5)	Which lands have been set aside so that wetlands will migrate inland; which land [will] require shore protection? Which lands could be available for either? (EPA)

*Remember:  This is still a proposal.*

*Need Wetland Accretion Specialists to pull together in January*

## Other Questions

*For alternate scenarios of sea level rise and shore protection*
- Population, economics, land use?
- Cost of shore protection?
- Ecological implications?
- Flood damages?
- Public’s access to the shore?

## Other Questions

*For alternate scenarios of sea level rise and shore protection*
- Population, economics, land use? (NOAA)
- Cost of shore protection? (Corps?)
- Ecological implications? (local experts)
- Flood damages? (FEMA?)
- Public’s access to the shore? (lawyers)

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