# Presentation: 308895

## Predictive Services

- Rick Ochoa
- National Interagency Coordination Center

## Staffing at Coordination Centers

- Two fire weather meteorologists
- Intelligence personnel
- Wildland Fire Analyst
- 	- full time at NIFC
- 	- during season at
- 	  some centers

## Predictive Services Integrates

- 1. Fire Weather
- 2. Fire Danger
- 3. Resources

## Why Predictive Services

- Reason: _Proactive_ resource allocation
- 	Strategic resource allocations & priority setting will provide:                                 *-** **maximize public & firefighter safety       **-** **reduce losses                                       **-** **lower costs *

## Products & Services

- Daily, monthly, seasonal outlooks
- Briefings
- Decision support to managers
- 	Examples:
-     - air tanker positioning
- 	- dry lightning forecasts
- 	- resource movement

## FX-Net

**FX-Net**

- FX-Net is a weather data assimilation and forecast software system similar to AWIPS
- Allows meteorologists the ability to view and compare various forecast parameters that affect weather in conjunction with real time observations
- Gridded version release in 2006 will allow “data mining” and custom product development
- This ability is critical to the forecast process  and to identify consistency, trends, biases, and errors in forecast models.

## CHEETAH: a program developed to rapidly assess periods of fire activity and resource needs:

**CHEETAH:**** a program developed to rapidly assess periods of fire activity and resource needs:**

**Notes:**
A software program developed to rapidly assess fire occurrence patterns and fire suppression resource requirements at National, Geographic Area, and sub-geographic area scales
Allows fire and/or resource capability analysis by GACC, PSA, Agency, Year, and range of dates
Program includes database with fire occurrence data from 1980-2004 for all federal agencies and the following state data: California, Washington, Oregon, and Alaska.
Permits fire data loading using PCHA format

## Cheetah provides historic information to help forecast anticipated resource needs at large landscape scales 

**Cheetah provides historic information to help forecast anticipated resource needs at large landscape scales**

**8/10 to 8/18**

## Slide 9

## Experimental 14-Day Standardized ERC_G Forecast Model

**Experimental 14-Day Standardized ERC_G Forecast Model**

**Actual ERC Forecast Values**

**Anomaly ERC Values**
**(departure from average)**

**Available at:**  **http://www.cefa.dri.edu/data/**
**NatlERC/natlErc.html**

**Notes:**
This gridded forecast model was developed by CEFA under a task order and funding from NPSG.
Model includes Actual, Standardized, Anomaly, and Ensemble outputs displayed on a National (lower 48) map.
User can select day and type of map for viewing
Very useful for comparing departure from average ERC_G values across the country
Concept could be applied to other NFDRS outputs

## Proposed developments for NFDRS forecast products

- Utilize NWS gridded weather data as inputs to products – Larry Bradshaw is project lead for this
- Establish a ERC Index Climatology for all of North America using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset.  This will:
- Provide daily ERCg values for all of the continent at 32km resolution
- Enable us to calculate departures from average when we develop gridded ERC forecasts
- (Matt Jolly has lead for this)

## Slide 12

| Three-dimensional view of the major components that drive Fire Potential |
| --- |

## Fire Potential Terminology

**Significant Fire Potential:**  The likelihood a wildland fire event will require mobilization of additional resources from outside the area in which the fire situation originates.
- “Significant Fire Potential” can also be thought of as the **probability of a new large fire**** **or likelihood of **significant growth on an existing fire**.
- Both are potential drains on region-wide and/or national level resources.

## Fire Potential Flow Chart

**Notes:**
Thisflow chart was developed to help diagram the environmental and resource management inputs for the product.

## Fuel Dryness Levels

***Fuel Dryness Levels***

***Significant Weather or Ignition Trigger***

***High Risk Days***

***Narrative Discussion***

***Predictive Service Areas***

## Slide 16

## Currently we are developing a geospatial portal to display significant fire potential nationally.  This example shows those Geographic Areas that were posting to the product as of August 16, 2006.

## Slide 18

## Slide 19

## Questions or comments on PS?