# Presentation: 000296

## How We Estimated The CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors 

**Felix Ammah-Tagoe, Ph.D.**
- Senior Research Consultant/Project Manager
- MacroSys Research and Technology
- @ BTS-Research and Innovative Technology Administration, USDOT
- Talking Freight Seminar
- February 15, 2006

## Sector Coverage

**Sectors in CFS**
- Manufacturing		Mining
- Wholesale trade		Selected Retail trade

**Sectors not in CFS**
- Imports		Publishing	Farm based                           Construction	Logging		Services
- Fisheries	Retail		Crude Petroleum                   Municipal solid waste		Natural gas

**Sectors partially in CFS**
- Exports			       Petroleum products

**Other sectors**
- Household & office goods moves	In-transit

- Total composite national estimates
- Serve as benchmark for the FHWA
- Freight Analysis Framework II

## Retail Trade

- CFS attempted to partially cover this sector but coverage was not as expected
- New estimates cover retail companies, including motor vehicle and parts dealers; furniture, home goods, electronic and appliance, building materials, clothing, etc. stores; and general merchandise stores.
- Data drawn from the VIUS, Economic Census, mileage data from the CFS, and input-output from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

## Retail Trade (cont.)

- Data sources and method of estimation
**Values** = Based on sales receipts of retail trade industries (from 2002 Economic Census)
**Tons** = Values * Weight-value ratios (from 2002 CFS)
**Ton-miles** = Tons * Miles per shipment (from 2002 VIUS)
- Remaining Issues
- Need to provide estimates by mode

**Notes:**
CFS covers the following retail trade establishments: 
	 Electronic shopping and mail-order houses
	Automotive parts and accessories 
	Tires 
	Floor coverings 
	Building materials 
	Nursery and garden 
	Office supplies 

The following items are excluded from the receipts
Industries covered by CFS
Retail trade establishments involved in selling commodities that are used or consumed at  retail outlets
Receipts from non-merchandize sales
The value of freight shipped by households (on foot or using their own cars)
The retail trade margins to provide the values of commodities in producers prices or in prices that correspond to the CFS prices

## Construction

- CFS excludes shipments originating in the construction sector.
- The new joint estimates cover shipments of companies engaged in construction of residential and commercial buildings, utility systems, road and bridge construction, and specialty trade contractors.
- Estimates based on the Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS), the Economic Census, and average miles per shipment information by commodity from the 1997 CFS.

## Construction (cont.)

- Data sources and method of estimation
**Ton-miles** = Truck payload weight * Truck loaded miles (from 2002 VIUS)
**Tons** = Ton-miles **/** Miles per shipment (from 2002 VIUS)
**Values ** = Tons * Value-weight ratios (from 2002 CFS)
- Remaining Issues
- Shipments by truck only (other modes are not covered)

## Services

- CFS excludes shipments originating in the service sector.
- New estimates covers shipments from service sector companies engaged in, for example, accommodation and food, rental and leasing, repair and maintenance, and scientific and technical services.
- Estimates based on the VIUS, the Economic Census, and average miles per shipment information by commodity from the 1997 CFS.

## Services (cont.)

- Data sources and method of estimation
**Ton-miles** = Truck payload weight * Truck loaded miles (from 2002 VIUS)
**Tons** = Ton-miles **/** Miles per shipment (from 2002 VIUS)
**Values ** = Tons * Value-weight ratios (from 2002 CFS)
- Remaining Issues
- Shipments by truck only (other modes are not covered)

## Logging Sector

- CFS excludes logging due to the switch from SIC to NAICS in the 2002 CFS
- Logging changed from *in-scope *manufacturing under SIC code to *out-of-scope* **agriculture **under NAICS
- The data gap includes logs and other wood in rough
- New estimates based on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Statistics, the Rail Waybill Sample, and the Waterborne Commerce of United States

## Logging (cont.)

- CFS excludes logging due to the switch from SIC to NAICS in the 2002 CFS
- Data sources and method of estimation
**Tons** = 1997 tons (from 1997 CFS) * growth of logs output (2002/1997) (from the Census of Agriculture)
**Ton-miles** = Tons * Miles per ton ratio (from 1997 CFS)
**Values** = Tons * Value-ton ratio (from 1997 CFS)

## Publishing

- CFS does not cover publishing due to the switch from SIC to NAICS in the 2002 CFS.
- Publishing changed from *in-scope *manufacturing under SIC code to *out-of-scope* **information** under NAICS
- Commodities missing include printed products
- New estimates based on data from the Economic Census and average miles per shipment information from the 1997 CFS.

## Publishing (cont.)

- Data Sources and method of estimation
**Values** = Sales receipts of NAICS 5111 and 51223 industries (from 2002 Economic Census)
**Tons** = Value * Value-ton ratio (from 2002 CFS)
**Ton-miles** = Tons * Miles per ton (from 2002 CFS)

## Imports

- CFS excludes imports because CFS is shipper-based and covers domestic business only
- Estimates covers official U.S. merchandise imports trade by mode and commodity.
- Value and weight information derived from trade data.  Ton-miles derived as sum of tonnage multiplied by estimated shipment travel distance for each mode.

## Imports (cont.)

- Data source and method of estimation
**Values **= Based on data from Census Bureau
**Tons** = Based on data from the Transborder dataset, & Census Bureau’s Trade Statistics
**Ton-miles** = Tons * average length of haul (from Rail Waybill, BTS, US Army Corps of Engineers, 2002 CFS, & Association of Oil Pipelines)
- Remaining Issues
- Double counting of some imports already covered by CFS

## Exports

- While the CFS includes export, it partially covers all export shipments
- Our estimates represents the net difference between official U.S. merchandise exports and the exports measured in the CFS by mode and commodity.

## Exports (cont.)

- Analysis indicates that CFS underestimates export shipments, and misclassifies modal distributions
- Data sources and method of estimation
**Values** = Values.T (from U.S. trade data) – 2002 CFS exports values
**Tons** = [Values.S * Weight-value ratios of imports (surface modes from official trade data)] + [Tons for air & water from official trade data] – [2002 CFS exports tons]
**Ton-miles** = [Tons.T * Miles per ton (from CFS export data)] – [2002 CFS exports ton-miles]

## Household and Office Goods

- As a “shipper” survey the CFS does not cover these shipments
- Our estimates covers movement of household goods and used institutional or commercial furniture and equipment.
- Data from the Economic Census and the American Moving and Storage Association.

## Household and Office Goods (cont.)

- Principal commodities include electronics, furniture & mixed freight
- Data sources and method of estimation
**Values** = Sales receipt of NAICS 48421 (from 2002 Economic Census)
**Tons** = Values * Value per ton ratio (from American Moving and Storage Association)
**Ton-miles **= Tons * Miles per ton (from 2002 CFS)

## Major Findings

- Released in *Freight in America* report
- Over $19 billion tons of freight valued at $13 trillion was carried over 4.4 trillion ton-miles in 2002
- Typical day in 2002 - Approx. 53 million tons of goods valued at about $36 billion moved nearly 12 billion ton-miles on the national multimodal transportation network

## Major Findings

|  | Value (billion $) | Tons (million) | Ton–miles (billion) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| All Modes1 |    13,052  |  19,487  |        4,409  |
| Single modes |    11,599  |  18,894  |        4,073  |
| Truck2 |      9,075  |  11,712  |        1,515  |
| Rail |         392  |    1,979  |        1,372  |
| Water |         673  |    1,668  |           485  |
| Air (incl. truck and air) |         563  |           6  |            13  |
| Pipeline3 |         896  |    3,529  |           688  |
| Multiple modes |      1,121  |       229  |           233  |
| Parcel, postal, or courier |      1,022  |         27  |            21  |
| Truck and rail |           77  |         52  |            50  |
| Other multiple modes4 |           22  |       150  |           162  |
| Unknown modes |         331  |       365  |           103  |

## Major Findings

- Trucking remains the mode of choice and is increasing in market share
- Nearly 1.7 billion tons of merchandise moved in and out of the US, accounting for over 9 percent of total tonnage

## Comparison with 2002 CFS

- According to the composite estimates, more freight moves than reported in the CFS
- By value, 36 percent of the freight moved nationally were non-CFS shipments
- About 40% by tonnage
- About 29% by ton-miles

## Comparison with 2002 CFS

|   | CFS | Non-CFS | Total |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Value (billion $) |     8,397  |       4,655  |   13,052  |
| Tons (million) |   11,668  |       7,819  |   19,487  |
| Ton-miles (billion) |     3,138  |       1,271  |     4,409  |
| Percent share |  |  |  |
| Value | 64.3  | 35.7  | 100.0  |
| Tons | 59.9  | 40.1  | 100.0  |
| Ton-Miles | 71.2  | 28.8  | 100.0  |

## Summary

- A large proportion of the freight shipments of the United States is not covered by CFS
- Possible to use surrogate data sources to reliably estimate out-of-score sectors
- Further research needed to, for example:
- Estimate construction, services, and retail shipments by other modes besides trucks

## Follow-Up Questions?

Felix Ammah-Tagoe
202/366-8926
felix.ammah-tagoe@dot.gov

**Felix Ammah-Tagoe**
**202/366-8926**
**felix.ammah-tagoe@dot.gov**