# Presentation: 341171

## LWG Assessment of  DOE’s Energy Portfolio       

- George Crabtree
- Argonne National Laboratory

*Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee*
*Aug 3, 2006*

## Motivation

*	**“**We have not done as good a job as we should in coordinating the activities of the ESE offices. We have not done as good a job as we should in performing the crosscutting analysis we need to justify our budgets to the Congress.”*

- David Garman
- Under Secretary for Energy, Science and Environment
- Senate Confirmation Hearing
- April 6, 2005

## LWG Organization

*David Garman*

*Ray Orbach*

*EERE, FE, NE, OE, Science **(Pat Dehmer)*

*Don McConnell **George Crabtree** Co-Chairs**~ 30 participants **from Nat’l Labs*

- Under Secretaries for S&T
-  Energy
-  Science

- R&D Council

- S&T Integration
-  Working Group

- S&T Analysts

- S&T Laboratory
- Working Group

- Ad-Hoc S&T
- Analysis Teams

*John Sullivan**Associate Under Secretary for Energy**James Decker **Deputy Director, Office of Science**Co-Chairs*

## LWG Participants

- *Don McConnell (Battelle/PNNL)
- *George Crabtree (ANL)
- Mark Peters (ANL)
- J. Murray Gibson (ANL)
- John (Patrick) Looney (BNL)
- Doon Gibbs (BNL)
- Ralph Bennett (INL)
- J.W. (Bill) Rogers (INL)
- Mark Levine (LBNL)
- Heinz Frei (LBNL)
- Jane C. S. Long (LLNL)
- Julio Friedmann (LLNL)

- *Co-Chairs

- Charryl L Berger (LANL) Mary Neu (LANL)
- James Ekmann (NETL)
- Joe Strakey (NETL)
- Bobi Garrett (NREL)
- Ray Stults (NREL)
- Gordon Michaels (ORNL)
- James Roberto (ORNL)
- Mike Davis (PNNL)
- Doug Ray (PNNL)
- Margie Tatro (SNL)
- Terry Michalske (SNL)
- Paul Deason – SRNL

**Part I:  Context**

## Program Scope

## Charge to Laboratory Working Group (LWG)

## Multi-year Process

**FY05 (for FY07 programs)****	****applied energy programs, qualitative impact**
**FY06: (for FY08 programs)   ****	****+ quantitative impact, relation to science, risk**
**FY07 (for FY09 cycle)****	****	****+ model analysis****	**
**FY08 (for FY10 cycle)**

## Diversify our energy mix and reduce dependence on foreign petroleum, thereby reducing vulnerability to disruption and increasing the flexibility of the marketto meet U.S. needs
Reduce greenhouse gas emissionsand other environmental impacts(water use, land use, criteria pollutants) from our energy production and use
Create a more flexible, more reliableand higher capacity U.S. energy infrastructure, thereby improving energy services throughout the economy, enabling use of diverse sources, and improving robustness against disruption
Improve the energy productivity(or energy efficiency) of the U.S. economy

***The Context:  Advancing Four, Broad National Energy Policy Goals***

**Diversify our energy mix and reduce dependence on foreign petroleum,** thereby reducing vulnerability to disruption and increasing the flexibility of the marketto meet U.S. needs
**Reduce greenhouse gas emissions****and other environmental impacts**(water use, land use, criteria pollutants) from our energy production and use
**Create a more flexible, more reliable****and higher capacity U.S. energy infrastructure, **thereby improving energy services throughout the economy, enabling use of diverse sources, and improving robustness against disruption
**Improve the energy productivity**(or energy efficiency) of the U.S. economy

## Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio

**The highest leverage approach to reducing petroleum imports lies in transportation fuel switching and efficiency improvements **
***DOE’s portfolio includes technology options that offer routes to near to mid term material impact (clean Diesel, hybrids, ethanol)***
***Attractive longer-term options may be feasible with significant, but likely achievable, scientific advances (cellulosic ethanol, fuel cells, energy storage)***
**Material reductions in carbon emissions depend on progress in  zero net emission electric generation options, and fuel switching / efficiency improvements throughout the economy**** **
***DOE’s applied R&D portfolio can materially improve available technology options in the near to mid term (building technology, hybrid electric drives, biofuels, advance nuclear, zero emissions fossil)***
***Emerging scientific advances offer credible promise of transforming / breakthrough technologies in the longer term (Utility scale solar, bio-energy feedstocks, bio-mimetic energy conversion)***

**“****From the LWG Report”**

## Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio

**Several areas of science offer great promise for advances that could transform energy technology**** **
***Design and synthesis of materials exploiting nanoscale understanding ***
***Predictive modeling of complex systems ***
***Scattering facilities for in-situ molecular characterization ***
**Two areas of science may merit consideration for increased attention within the portfolio**
***Systems and synthetic biology***
***Catalysis / separations of chemical transformations***

**“****From the LWG Report”**

## Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio

**There are two significant “gaps” in the portfolio that may retard progress towards national goals:  **
***CO******2 ******sequestration science & technology ***
***Next-generation electric grid technologies***
**Refining R&D portfolio management practices could accelerate progress and create a “pipeline” of innovations targeted on national priorities**
***Focus on defining critical outcomes to impact national goals***
***Strengthen horizontal / crosscutting integration***
***Align research strategies across the spectrum of technology maturity from discovery to technology deployment***
***Consider “use-inspired” science initiatives to drive breakthrough discoveries into applications***

**“****From the LWG Report”**

## Reductions in petroleum imports pivot on            transportation fuel switching and vehicle energy efficiency improvements

**Reductions in petroleum imports pivot on            transportation fuel switching and vehicle energy efficiency improvements**

**Transportation**

**Fuel switching**

**•**** ****Ethanol from sugar    ****•****  Cellulosic ethanol**
**•**** ****Bio-diesel****	****	**

**• ****Oil Shales    ****• ****Coal Liquifaction   ****• ****Enhanced oil recovery   ****• ****Heavy crude processing**

**• ****High Efficiency Diesels   ****• ****Hybridization****•**** Plug-in hybrids**

**• ****Lightweight structures / materials   ****• ****Electrification of auxiliaries   ****• ****Efficient conversion systems**

**•**** ****Hybridization    ****• ****Electrical energy storage**
**  ****Auxiliary power options**

**Biofuels**

**Efficiency**

**Alternative Liquids**

**Electric Substitution**

**Vehicle Systems**

**Propulsion Options**

**“****From the LWG Report”**

## Advances in the electrical system play a major role      in achieving national goals for reducing environmental impacts from energy and increasing energy reliability

**Advances in the electrical system play a major role      in achieving national goals for reducing environmental impacts from energy *****and *****increasing energy reliability**

**Electricity System**

**Fuel switch**

**•**** ****ALWR    ****•**** Closed fuel cycle   ****•**** International reactor ****•**** High temperature reactor    ****•**** LWR**

**• ****Future Gen    ****• ****Sequestration    ****• ****Advanced gasification   ****• ****Zero-emission combustion**

**• ****Energy storage  ****• ****High temperature superconductivity****• ****Power electronics   ****• ****Fault current limiters**

**• ****DG interconnection   ****• ****MicroGrids   ****• ****Sensors & real-time controls**

**• ****Zero-energy buildings   ****• ****Solid-state lighting****•**** Efficient  integrated system**

**• ****Recycle & gasification by-product   ****• ****Efficient processing   ****• ****Novel manufacturing systems   ****• ****Efficient conversion systems**

**•**** ****Wind – low speed & off-shore    ****• ****Photovoltaic****• ****Concentrating solar   ****• ****Storage   ****• ****Bio power**

**• ****Grid monitoring   ****• ****Computational modeling ****• ****Real time visualization**

**Nuclear**

**Reliable & ****secure delivery**

**Efficiency**

**Zero emission fossil**

**Renewable**

**Advanced T&D****components**

**Responsive loads & real-time controls**

**Visualization & modeling **

**Industrial**

**Buildings**

**“****From the LWG Report”**

## Mission impact requires translation from discovery to innovation to the market

**DOE R&D faces two broadly recognized gaps:**
**Translation of new concepts arising out of basic research to conceptual stage but targeted R&D**
**Translation of near-mature technologies from working prototypes to commercial deployment**
**Both of these are “bi-directional” issues**
**Basic science creates entirely new technology possibilities**
**Technology efforts identify key issues requiring improved scientific understanding or new approaches**
**Improving technology performance suggests new deployment opportunities**
**Market feedback helps set technology performance requirements**

**“****From the LWG Report”**

## The LWG viewed energy S&T as a continuum with critical roles for DOE’s Science and Applied Energy portfolios

**Co-development**
**Scale-up research **
**At-scale Demonstration**
**Cost reduction**
**Prototyping**
**Manufacturing R&D**
**Deployment support**

**Basic research for fundamental new understanding, the science grand challenges **
**Development of new tools, techniques, and facilities, including those for advanced modeling and computation**

**Basic research****for new understanding specifically to overcome short-term showstoppers in the DOE technology programs**

**Research with the goal of meeting technical targets, with emphasis****on the **** development, performance, cost reduction, and ****durability of materials and components or****on efficient processes**
**Proof of technology concept**

**Office of Science**

**Applied Energy Programs**

**Goal: new knowledge / understanding**
**Mandate: open-ended**
**Focus: phenomena**
**Metric: knowledge generation**

**Goal: practical targets**
**Mandate: restricted to target**
**Focus: performance**
**Metric: milestone achievement**

**The LWG viewed energy S&T as a continuum with critical roles for DOE’s Science and Applied Energy portfolios**

**“****From the LWG Report”**

## Issues for Next Cycle: Technology

- Interaction of energy sources: “fuel switching”
- Coal-gas-nuclear-renewable for electricity
- Petroleum-biofuel for transportation
- Alternative transportation energy options
- Interaction of energy chains
- Electricity-petroleum-natural gas-biofuel-hydrogen
- Quantitative analysis of energy system
- Market inertia, ripple effect across sources and chains

## Issues for Next Cycle: Science

- Greater analysis of science for energy solutions
- Achieve revolutionary breakthroughs, not evolutionary increments: factor of 10, not 10%
- Look beyond existing technology-centric directions
- New approaches for managing the basic-applied interface
- Establish greater synergy
- Maintain separate identities
- Emphasize discovery science distinct from use-inspired basic research
- Advance the frontier - small, fast, complex, . . .
- New knowledge  unexpected new uses
- What are the grand challenges of discovery science?

## Basic Science Vision

- Incremental advances in the state of the art of existing energy technologies will not meet the nation's future energy and environmental security challenges.
- Revolutionary innovations are needed, both in the energy technologies themselves and in our understanding of the fundamental science that enables their operation.
- Vibrant fundamental science programs generate revolutionary innovations in two ways: (i)  by discovery-driven advances in the frontier of knowledge, enabling new paradigms and unexpected opportunities for disruptive energy technologies, and (ii) by use-inspired research targeting specific areas where incomplete understanding blocks technological progress. DOE should maintain strong programs in both areas that sustain US leadership in science.
- Basic-applied interactions are a fertile source of innovation.  DOE should develop new ways to stimulate translational research and creative connections across the basic-applied interface.

*The role of science*

## Basic Science Frontiers 

- High Performance Materials
- Science at the nanoscale, especially low-dimensional systems
- Dynamics of physical, chemical and biological phenomena
- Emergent behavior in complex systems, from high Tc superconductors to pattern formation in chemical solutions to self-assembly and self-repair
- Catalysis and control of chemical transformation
- Molecular to systems level understanding of living systems
- Biomimetics and photobiological energy conversion
- Molecular scale understanding of interfacial science, separations, and permeability in physical systems and membranes
- New Tools for:
-   	In situ molecular characterization
-   	Theory/Computation/Numerical Applications

## Back up slides

## Our analyses focused on “innovation strands”         augmented by cross-cutting “system” assessments

**Industrial Technologies**

**Our analyses focused on “innovation strands”         augmented by cross-cutting “system” assessments**

**Future Liquid Fuels Systems Assessment**

**Cross-cutting / Enabling Science and Technology Opportunities & Challenges**

** ****Future Electricity Systems Assessment**

**Future Hydrogen & Gaseous Fuels Systems Assessment**

- Distribution

- Use

** ****Advanced Building Systems**

**Electric Grid****of the Future**

**Vehicle Technologies**

**“****From the LWG Report”**

## Goal 1: Energy Supply DiversityTransportation efficiency & fuel switching offer              the most significant opportunities to reduce oil imports

**Goal 1: Energy Supply Diversity****Transportation efficiency & fuel switching offer              the most significant opportunities to reduce oil imports**

**2025 Petroleum Demand**
**51 Quads**

**Additional opportunities exist to offset industrial demand**

- Transportation37 quads
- 73%

- Other3 quads
- 6%

- Industrial
- 11 quads
- 21%

**Three options offer the most significant opportunities to offset transportation fuel demands on imported petroleum**

**Maximum Market Potential**

**Maximum Market Potential**

- *

*** Alternative liquids outlook is based on current industry estimates**

## Goal 2: Significant reductions in CO2 emissions require a broad suite of options

**Alternative **
**Liquids *******

**Bioethanol ***

**Emerging fuel options require assessment on a                  Life Cycle Basis**

*** Vectors are directionally correct Magnitude estimated pending life cycle emission analysis**

**Goal 2: Significant reductions in CO****2**** emissions require a broad suite of options**

**Projected 2025 **
**Carbon Emissions**
***In million metric tons (mmt)***

**Point of Use Basis**

**Non Trans Fuel  & Feedstocks 556 mmt**

**Electricity**
**889 mmt**

**Transportation, 706 mmt**

## Options for addressing CO2 also offer benefits        in reducing the demand for natural gas imports

**Alternative electric generation options offers offsets to increasing natural gas imports**

## Basic-Applied Research

- What are the goals?
- Translation of applications from basic to applied
- 	50% efficient quantum dot solar cell
- 	Cost competitive superconducting wire
- Develop disruptive approach to grand energy challenges
- 	Make an electronic switch  information revolution
- 	Store 24 GWh of electrical energy for 24 hours
- 	Personal transportation at 1/10th cost of cars
- What are the attributes?
- Integrated basic-applied PI teams
- Integrated basic-applied management teams
- Tap the best scientists/engineers: innovative thinkers, receptive to new ideas and people
- Objectives are innovation driven, not time-scale driven
- Stable program: 10+ year life
- International network of workshops and visitors to create community and stimulate fresh perspective
- Periodic review by top scientists/engineers outside DOE
- Examine other innovation machines for organizational inspiration: DARPA, Bell Labs, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Xerox Parc