# Presentation: 341173

## Re-estimating the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 Forecast Using Updated Assumptions about the Internet Economy

- Skip Laitner, EPA and Jonathan Koomey, LBNL
- Laitner.Skip@epamail.epa.gov, 202/564-9833
- JGKoomey@lbl.gov, 510/486-5974, http://enduse.lbl.gov/
- Talk is on the web at http://enduse.lbl.gov/shareddata/NEMSinternettalk001022.ppt
- Presented at the Earth Technologies Forum
- Washington DC
- October 30, 2000

## Background

- _x0008_Issue:  AEO 2000 forecast may not incorporate some important recent trends.
- Question:  What effect would incorporating such trends have on energy use and carbon emissions in 2010?
- Tool:  Use LBNL’s version of the National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS), which we’ve worked with since 1995.

## Comparison of U.S. Energy Projections:A Difference in Technology Assumptions

**Historical Consumption**

**Low-Energy Future Projection**
**Based Upon 1980 DOE Analysis**

**EPA/LBNL Scenario**

**AEO 2000 Forecast**

**Typical Forecasts**
**Pre-1980**

***Source: EPA estimates and 1980 DOE Policy Analysis***

## Recent Trends in U.S. Energy Intensity

## The Information and Communication

**The Information and Communication**
**Technologies Diffusion Curve**

**Where the economy**
**seems to be right now**

**Where most models**
**seem to focus**

## Methodology

- Method:  Adjust AEO forecast to account for possible effects of new trends and programs.  Postulate changes relative to the AEO 2000 in the following areas:
- Paper and cement production (down in 2010 by 7 Mt and 6 Mt, respectively)
- Vehicle miles traveled (down about 4% in 2010)
- Commercial floor area (down 10% by 2006).
- Combined heat and power (up 20 GW by 2010)
- Structural change (shift towards IT)
- Voluntary programs more fully incorporated

## Comparison of historical cement, paper and steel production trends to the AEO 2000 scenario

- Data Sources: LBNL (historical trends), EIA (1999).

## Results for 2010

- AEO 2000 Forecast = 1787 Million Metric Tons Carbon (MtC)
- Downward shifts from the new economy might equal 76 MtC
- Reduced Paper and Cement Consumption = 6 MtC
- Reduced Transportation Consumption = 15 MtC
- Reduced Commercial Building Space = 16 MtC
- Increased CHP/DES/Gasification Systems = 8 MtC
- Structural change in the Economy = 31 MtC
- Voluntary programs may add as much as 40 MtC additional savings.
- Incorporating all these effects (including take-back)  might reduce carbon emissions by about 100 MtC in 2010, or about 6% below AEO 2000 levels.

## More Questions than Answers

- Would a better definition and measurement of the ICT-sectors either weaken or improve the supposed benefits?
- How will competition and innovation within the ICT-sectors affect productivity gains throughout the nation’s economy?  How will they impact other inflationary pressures?  Will we see managed but positive deconstruction or wild and woolly creative destruction?
- Are there other tradeoffs not anticipated by the transition to an information-age economy, including changes in distributional benefits, consumer or producer surpluses, the increased reliance on imported or critical materials, or other environmental and economic impacts?
- Will the resources devoted to ICT-infrastructure improvements reduce the opportunities for improvement in other sectors of the economy?
- Can we make this positive vision of the future come to pass?

## Conclusions

- Potential effects explored in this analysis are large enough to matter.
- Large uncertainties remain in analyzed effects, particularly in those related to systemic effects of E-commerce on resource use.
- Other effects not included here
- Reduced building construction
- Outsourcing of energy services
- Changes in other materials use