# Presentation: 054884

## Ecological forecasting and hindcasting in the intertidal zone:From weather and oceanography to body temperatures, mortality risks and biogeography 

**Ecological forecasting and hindcasting in the intertidal zone:****From weather and oceanography to ****body temperatures, ****mortality risks and biogeography**** **

- David S. Wethey, Brian Helmuth, Sarah A. Woodin, Thomas J. Hilbish, Venkataraman Lakshmi
- University of South Carolina
- Columbia SC 29208 USA
- wethey@biol.sc.edu

## How hot is it on the shore?How do we measure and predict risks to coastal populations?

- Measurements
- Biomimetic temperature sensors
- Mortality and heat-shock protein expression
- Forecasting, Hindcasting, Nowcasting
- Mechanistic simulation models
- tbone.geol.sc.edu/forecasting
- Based on ground and satellite climate data
- Tide model to predict inundation times
- tbone.geol.sc.edu/tide

## Model Cartoon

- Models based on NOAH Land Surface Model used in
- NOAA Global Forecast System and North American Model.
- We developed a new “vegetation type” : intertidal mussel bed.
- All of the physics is from NOAH.
- Tides: xtide, SST: GHRSST, wave runup: Wavewatch III

## Hindcast Verification of Model

- US West Coast 2000-2004
- 95% of model months are within range of
- biomimetic logger observations
- of average daily maximum temperature

- Gilman, Wethey, Helmuth 2006. PNAS 103:9560-9565

## What is the relationship between climate change and biogeographic change in intertidal species?

- Major space occupiers / habitat modifiers
- Barnacles –
*Semibalanus balanoides*
- Mussels –
*Mytilus californianus, M. edulis *
*M. galloprovincialis, M. trossulus*
- Worms-
*Diopatra neapolitana, Diopatra cuprea*
*Abarenicola pacifica, Arenicola marina*

- Wethey and Woodin 2008, Hydrobiologia 606: 139-151

## Forecasting

- Forecasting products for coastal managers
- Warnings of die-offs
- Sublethal effects on dominant space-occupiers
- Short term forecasts (7-days)
- Seasonal forecasts  (8-months)
- Derived from operational products
- North American Model/Global Forecast System
- Climate Forecast System
- Wave Watch III
- GHRSST
- Climate Scenarios
- NOAA/GFDL Model
- NASA/GISS Model

## Rock temperatures:

- Barnacles/mussels
- Forecasts capture
- magnitude and
- amplitude of both
- Seasonal trends
- and
- Daily fluctuations
- Bias 1.12°C
- RMS error 3.22°C

## Seven Day Forecast of Intertidal  Mussel Bed Temperatures Worldwidehttp://tbone.geol.sc.edu/forecasting/7day.html

- Forecast runs daily, using midnight GMT forecasts from
- NOAA Global Forecast System, North American Model and GHRSST as input.
- US East/West, Europe, S Africa, New Zealand, Hokkaido/Sakhalin

## Seasonal Forecast of Intertidal  Mussel Bed Temperature Anomalies Worldwidehttp://tbone.geol.sc.edu/forecasting/8month_anomaly.html

- Seasonal Forecast of Intertidal  Mussel Bed Temperature Anomalies Worldwidehttp://tbone.geol.sc.edu/forecasting/8month_anomaly.html

- Forecast runs biweekly, using midnight GMT forecasts from
- NOAA Climate Forecast System as input.
- US East/West, Europe, S Africa, New Zealand, Hokkaido/Sakhalin

##  Forecasts on US West Coast

- July 8-15, 2006
- July 23-30, 2006
- Aug 1-8, 2006

- Mass mortality of
*Pisaster* starfish
- In Oregon, but not
- In Central California
*Pisaster* is keystone
- predator on
- West Coast

-  Forecasts on US West Coast
- Predicted Mass Mortality of Keystone Species

##   Forecasts In New Zealand Predicted Mass Mortality

- Feb 1-4, 2007
- Feb 5-8,2007
- Feb 14-17,2007
- Feb 18-21,2007

-   Forecasts In New Zealand Predicted Mass Mortality

- Mass mortality of
- Burrowing echinoids
*Echinocardium*
- At Warkworth NZ
- Feb 21, 2007

## Mytilus mussel survival in lab and field

*Mytilus *mussel survival in lab and field

- Sierra J Jones

- Lab Survival

- Field Temperatures

- Daily Survival

- Cumulative Survival

- temperature

## West Coast Mussel Mortality Risk: Frequency of 36 C temperatures for at least 2 hours over 3 consecutive days

|  | ’00 | ’01 | ‘02 | ’03 | ’04 | ’05 | ’06 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Tatoosh |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Boiler Bay |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Strawberry Hill |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Cape Arago |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Trinidad |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Cape Mendocino |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Bodega |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Santa Cruz |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Hopkins |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Cambria |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Jalama |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Alegria |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

**West Coast Mussel Mortality Risk: Frequency of 36 C temperatures for at least 2 hours over 3 consecutive days**

- Allison Smith

## Hindcasting Historical Sea SurfaceTemperature to 1900

- ICOADS data from ships of opportunity
- Monthly data interpolated to 1 km grid
- 12-point inverse squared distance weighting
- Sampled at 10 km intervals along coast
- Verified 1985-2000 vs AVHRR
- Used in CART bioclimatic envelope models

- Lima et al. 2006. J. Biogeography 33: 812-822

## Centennial Scale Climate Change and Biogeographic Shifts

## Conclusions

- Proof of concept of ecological forecasting tools
- Short term intertidal forecasts predicted unusually high temperatures during two local mass mortality events
*Pisaster* starfish in Oregon, 2006
*Echinocardium* urchins in New Zealand, 2007
- Laboratory data on thermal tolerance for *Mytilus* species allow prediction of heat shock protein expression and mortality
- Hindcasting can be used to explain historical range shifts
- Seasonal forecasts can be used to predict reproductive success or failure in some species.
- Web-based tools can be used to provide warning of potential die-offs in intertidal habitats worldwide.
- See Poster 268 (Allison Smith) – worldwide risk analysis
- See Poster 239 (Lauren Yamane) – climate & predators

## Collaborators and Support

- PIs: Brian Helmuth, Sarah Woodin, Jerry Hilbish, Venkat Lakshmi
- Post docs: Sarah Gilman, Fernando Lima, Nova Mieszkowska,
- Srinivas Chintalapati, Sylvain Pincebourde
- Students: Sarah Berke, Pam Brannock, Sierra Jones, Karlie Jones,
- Jennifer Jost, Christel Lopez, Kim Schneider, Allison Smith,
- Lauren Szathmary, Lauren Yamane

## Classification and Regression Tree Analysis of Barnacle Biogeography and SST Demographic population model of geographic limitsUS East Coast                          Europe

- Classification and Regression Tree Analysis of Barnacle Biogeography and SST Demographic population model of geographic limitsUS East Coast                          Europe

*Semibalanus* reproductive failure if winter temperature >10-12C (Crisp & Patel 1969, Barnes 1963)

- Eng Chan
- Biarritz
- N Portugal
- Gibraltar

- Maine
- Cape Cod
- C Hatteras

- 2007
- 1900

- 2007
- 1850