# Presentation: 446275

## Freight Analysis FrameworkNorth American Interchange on Transportation StatisticsApril 2002 

*Rolf R. Schmitt*

## Freight Analysis Framework

- Developed by Federal Highway Administration to understand and forecast commodity movements in the U.S.
- Integrates place-to-place commodity flow data, and assigns flow to the modal networks.
- Ability to analyze changes in flows or networks.
- Modes included: Trucks, Railroads, Water and Air.
- Commodity Detail: 2 and 4 Digit STCC.
- Base Year- 1998      Forecasts- 2010, 2020.

## DATA SOURCES 

- BTS/Census Bureau Commodity Flow Survey (All Modes)
- BTS Transborder Freight Statistics (Truck, Rail, Pipeline)
- STB/FRA Rail Waybill Sample (Rail)
- MarAd and US Army Corps data (Water)
- BTS/FAA (Airport)
- Reebie (Truck)
- Census Bureau 5-year Census and Annual Survey of Manufacturers (Truck, Water, Air)
- Private Port Directories (Water)
-  DRI Industrial Production Indices (Truck, water, air)

- Trade Association Production & Shipment Reports (Truck, water, air)
- US Geological Survey Mineral Industry Reports (Truck, water)
- Reebie Associates Freight Locater/InfoUSA Street-Address Industrial Employment & Activity  (Truck)
- County Population Data (Truck)
- Inter-Industry Trade Patterns (Input/Output Table)  (Truck, Air)
- Motor Carrier Industry Financial & Operating Statistics (Truck)
- Railroad Industry Proprietary Rebill Factors (Truck)

## Methods

- Flows are estimated at the county-to-county level by mode and commodity
- Flows are assigned to highway, railroad, waterway, and air networks
- National and regional forecasts applied to flows
- Mode shares change only if commodity mix changes
- Volume, mode shares, and networks, can be changed for policy scenarios.

## Truck Freight Flows, All CommoditiesAll truck types; highway freight density in tons

*Truck Freight Flows, All Commodities**All truck types; highway freight density in tons*

## Truck Freight Flows, High-Service CommoditiesHigh-value and time-sensitive products, highway freight density in tons

## Rail Freight Flows, All CommoditiesRail freight density in tons

*Rail Freight Flows, All Commodities**Rail freight density in tons*

## Rail Intermodal Flows, All CommoditiesRail freight density in tons

*Rail Intermodal Flows, All Commodities**Rail freight density in tons*

## Domestic Waterway Freight Flows, All Commodities Waterway freight density in tons

*Domestic Waterway Freight Flows, All Commodities **Waterway freight density in tons*

**Notes:**
Heavy Missippi River focus for inland waterway system.  

Shipments also occur along the Great Lakes, and there exists a sizable movement of materials along the U.S. costs.

The apparent flow to Latin America is actually Panama Canal traffic moving between the U.S. East and West Coasts.  

## Potential Congested Segments – 1998

## Potential Congested Segments - 2010

## Potential Congested Segments - 2020

*Potential Congested Segments - 2020*

## Top U.S. Gateways for International Freight - Exports Imports in Tons

*Top U.S. Gateways for International Freight - **Exports Imports in Tons*

**Notes:**
Highlights our top gateways, land and water ports of entry; this highlights facilities of national significance for trade.  The FAF seeks to provide information on both rail and truck crossings, but also the port landside access.  The bottlenecks that exist at ports or border crossings need to be addressed to improve economic competitiveness and offset local congestion problems.  For example, the Alemeda Corridor in Southern California, or the FAST program in Washington State are seeking to improve both freight mobility and urban traffic flows.

The Freight Office is engaged in many border activities, including simulating border facility construction, border and corridor programs, and encouraging technology deployment at border facilities to increase throughput.  Information on these items is available on our website.

## U.S.- Mexican Truck Traffic – 1998 (Tons)

*U.S.- Mexican Truck Traffic – 1998 (Tons)*

- Origins

- Destinations

- Tons

## U.S.- Mexican Truck Traffic – 1998 (Tons)

*U.S.- Mexican Truck Traffic – 1998 (Tons)*

- Tons

## US/Mexico Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020  (Tons)

**Notes:**
Here is the subset of the traffic as it relates to U.S.-Mexican traffic in the year 2020.

Mexico is our number two trading partner.  Free trade in the Americas will further spur Latin American trade and growth in traffic particularly through our southern gateways.

In previous slide, average annual compound growth for Mexico was 3.4% a year.  This figure does not assume the movement of Mexican trucks on the U.S. system, but reflects the future activity of U.S.-Mexican freight on the nation’s system.  

## US-Canadian Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020  (Tons)

**Notes:**
Earlier, the total U.S. truck flows were shown.  Here is a view of U.S.-Canadian activity in the year 2020. 

Canada is our largest trading partner; this slide shows the domestic legs of Canadian/US trade on the highway system  in the year 2020.  The key corridors remain important to the movement of U.S.-Canadian trade.  

In previous slide, average annual compound growth for Canada was 3.1% a year.  

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## Next Steps 

- We are developing a “freight toolbox” :
- Verifying the flows
- Applying to national policy studies
- Providing output to state, local, and industry partners
- Can we extend the Freight Analysis Framework to Canada and Mexico?

## For further information:

- Rolf Schmitt
- Rolf.Schmitt@fhwa.dot.gov
- 202-366-9258
- Bruce Lambert
- Bruce.Lambert@fhwa.dot.gov
- 202-366-4241

***http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight***