# Presentation: 677613

## Brian McInerneyHydrologistNational Weather ServiceHydrologic OutlookMarch 2006

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Temperature

## DecemberSalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 1.3 degrees warmer than average

## JanuarySalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 5.2 degrees warmer than average

## FebruarySalt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- Average

## TemperatureWestern US Departure from Normal

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Precipitation

## Precipitation

## Utah and neighboring statesSeasonal Precipitation 2006 Water Year

## Western U.S. Precipitation

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Water Supply Forecast

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Snowpack

- Courtesy of NRCS

## Bear River Basin Snow

## Weber River Basin Snow

## Provo River Basin Snow

## Duchesne River Basin Snow

## Sevier River Basin Snow

## Virgin River Basin Snow

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes

- Much Above Normal
- Above Normal
- Normal
- Below Normal
- Much Below Normal

- March 1st 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
- Utah Area River Basins

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Bear River Basin**

- Logan

- 129%

- Bear River

- Bear Lake

- Woodruff

- 109%

- Ut/Wy
- Stateline

- 111%

- Blacksmith Fork

- Hyrum

- 123%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Weber River Basin**

- Pineview Res.

- 108%

- Gateway

- 123%

- East Canyon Res.

- 129%

- Ogden River

- Lost Creek Res.

- 112%

- Weber River

- Chalk Creek

- 100%

- Oakley

- 110%

- Rockport Res.

- 111%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Six Creeks River Basin**

- Jordan River

- Little Cottonwood Creek

- 112%

- Big Cottonwood Creek

- 121%

- Mill Creek

- 107%

- Parleys Creek

- 110%

- Dell Fk.

- 119%

- City Creek

- 115%

- Emigration Ck.

- 104%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Provo River Basin**

- Utah Lake

- Woodland

- 115%

- Jordanelle Res

- 113%

- Deer Creek Res

- 113%

- American Fork

- 119%

- Castilla

- 110%

- 105%

- Provo River

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Green River Basin**

- Lake Powell Res.

- 91%

- Green River

- 104%

- Price River

- Strawberry Res.

- 105%

- Starvation Res.

- 98%

- Scofield Res.

- 85%

- Colorado River

- Duchesne

- 98%

- Myton

- 94%

- Upper Stillwater

- 101%

- Randlett

- 94%

- Moon Lake

- 94%

- Tabiona

- 105%

- Red Fleet Res.

- 74%

- Flaming Gorge Res.

- 105%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Sevier River Basin**

- Hatch

- 55%

- Kingston

- 45%

- 68%

- Cedar City

- 52%

- Sevier River East Fork

- Piute Res.

- 48%

- Minersville

- 33%

- Beaver River

- Beaver

- 68%

- Clear Creek

- Sevier River

- Sevier

- 61%

- Gunnison

- 50%

- Salina Creek

- Ephraim Creek

- Sevier Lake

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- March 1st, 2006
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Virgin River Basin**

- Santa Clara River

- Virgin River North Fork

- Virgin River East Fork

- Pine Valley

- 25%

- Littlefield, AZ

- 22%

- Virgin

- 41%

- Hurricane

- 35%

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Peak Flow Forecast

## Slide 28

## Slide 29

## Slide 30

## Slide 31

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Short Term Forecast

## Hydrologic Outlook

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Long Range Forecast

## Snowpack vs. Runoff Volume

- Let’s look at the past five years of reservoir inflow in the Weber Basin, and compare the snowpack volumes feeding the runoff

| .49 | .63 | .43 | .44 | .69 | .98 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |

**% normal reservoir inflow**

**% normal snowpack**

**2000  2001  2002   2003   2004   2005**

**Ratio of snowpack to runoff**

| 42 | 36 | 34 | 25 | 47 | 100 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 86 | 57 | 79 | 58 | 68 | 102 |

**Lowest Ratio**

**Highest Ratio**

## La Nina ConditionsMarch 7th 2006

## Contact Information

- This presentation can be found at:
- _http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Saltlake/river/presentations_
- Additional Information
- Contact
- Brian McInerney
- Hydrologist
- National Weather Service
- 801-971-2033 c
- brian.mcinerney@noaa.gov