# Presentation: 695038

## Climate Anomalies and the

- 2003 Wildfire Season

- Program for Climate, Ecosystem
- and Fire Applications

- Timothy Brown and Beth Hall
- Desert Research Institute

## Slide 2

**Notes:**
Large fires (> 100 acres)  Note colors corresponding to month of occurrence

## Year-to-Date Wildfire Statistics

|  | 2003 | 1993-2002 Average |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Fires | 54,429 | 69,094 |
| Acres | 3,240,372 | 3,931,718 |

- (as of 10/17/03)

**Notes:**
Year to date statistics from NIFC site; not a particularly remarkable year

## 2003 Year-to-Date Managed Fire Statistics

|  | Wild | Prescribed |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Fires | 54,329 | 21,097 |
| Acres | 3,240,372 | 2,584,789 |

- (as of 10/17/03)

**Notes:**
Data from NICC; wild is shown again for comparison.  Don’t know how prescribed and fire use compare to some longer-term average; Paul might.  Point to highlight is performing management objectives given optimal climate conditions. 

## Slide 5

**Notes:**
Winter season precip percentile and condition class - refer to special report on fire regime and condition class definitions
Main point is dry winter conditions in midwest that allowed fine fuels to carryover into spring

## Slide 6

**Notes:**
Same as previous, except SPI for multi-years and only condition class three for all fire regimes.
Main point is long-term dry in West in conjunction with class three locations.
Longer-term dry has significant impact on heavy fuels

## Slide 7

**Notes:**
Climate related forest damage around Lake Arrowhead, CA
70 million acres in the U.S. at risk of mortality over next 15 years, partly climate related
Drought, insect and disease

## Season Climate Highlights

- Long-term drought in West
- Persistent summer ridge in West
- Westward shift of monsoon
- No significant wind events in many regions

**Notes:**
The lack of wind related to the ridge

## Slide 9

**Notes:**
Note strong ridge over West and trough in East

## Slide 10

**Notes:**
Note large anomalies over West

## Slide 11

**Notes:**
Add U.S. streamlines here if you can get them; Jun-Aug

## Slide 12

**Notes:**
Note the large positive anomalies over east and extreme southwest; large negative over northern tier
Dry over monsoon region and shift to west.

## Slide 13

## Slide 14

## Slide 15

## Slide 16

**Notes:**
Arizona ERC - note large and above normal values nearly through Aug, suggesting dry monsoon in region
Use these to highlight climate impact directly on fire season

## Slide 17

**Notes:**
ERC for northwestern Montana - note all time record values well above 97th percentile

## Slide 18

**Notes:**
Discuss map in context of first seasonal outlook produced in February (Klaus Wolter just before your talk was part of this workshop)
Large fires plotted.  Potential is a relative term, but is more or less meant to reflect resource demands
Fires in white or green areas not necessarily bad; nor are no fires in red areas (this only potential)
Areas of interest that did not validate well are southeastern AZ, UT, WA and eastern OK

## Next Season Outlook Workshops

- Eastern Area (late-January)
- Whole U.S. (early April)

## Key Upcoming Climate Highlights

- Winter ENSO?
- Will western drought conditions persist?
- Southwest monsoon strength/location?

**Notes:**
These will be some of the key questions that the fire agencies will be interested in
If you want to spark audience interaction, ask them for answers