# Presentation: 681016

## Is Marriage Protective for All Children?Cumulative Risk Factors at Birth and Subsequent Child Behavior 

- Cynthia Osborne
- LBJ School of Public Affairs
- University of Texas at Austin
- June 6, 2007

- This work has been supported by a grant from the *National Poverty Center* at the University of Michigan.  Any opinions expressed are those of the author.

## Background

- Substantial increase in nonmarital childbearing, especially among lower-educated and minority women
- Increase is concerning because of risk of negative outcomes for children associated with living in an unmarried family
- A married family is considered a protective factor; an unmarried family is considered a risk factor for children

## Background (continued)

- Unmarried mothers often have many additional risk factors (young, minority, low education, poor, poor health, etc.)
- Children exposed to multiple risks at birth and in early childhood have poorest outcomes
- Cumulative risk index is more predictive than any particular risk
- Possible that the cumulative risks children born to unmarried v. married mothers experience account for subsequent differences in child outcomes

## Is Marriage Protective for All Children?

- Marital status, education level, and race/ethnicity are highly correlated
- Differences in cumulative risks by marital status may largely reflect education and race differences
- Important to look at differences across relationship status, *within* a given education level or race/ethnicity

## Research Questions

- How do the number and type of risks that children are exposed to at birth differ by their mother’s relationship status?  Is the pattern similar within all education levels and race/ethnic groups?
- Do differences in risk factors at birth by relationship status explain subsequent differences in child behavior across relationships?  Is the effect of risk similar for all groups?
- Are the effects of risks cumulative?  Is there a threshold effect?
- What risks matter most?  Are they policy amenable?

**Notes:**
Does measuring risk individually or as a cumulative risk score explain more of the difference in child behavior?

Is the effect of risk similar for all relationship statuses?

## Data

- Fragile Families Study (N = 4,897)
- Birth cohort survey (1998-2000)
- 20 large US cities (200,000+)
- Over sample of non-marital births
- 3 waves: child’s birth, age 1, and age 3
- Child module, including in-home observational assessment at age 3
- Sample (N=3,126) excludes mothers who
- Did not complete the child module (n=1,579)
- Categorized race as “other” (n=125)
- Did not have sampling weight (n=67)

## Risk Factors (21 Total)

- Biological (1)
- low birth weight
- Socioeconomic (3)
- <150% of poverty line
- public housing
- unsafe neighborhood
- Family structural (3)
- family density>2
- mother has other child
- father has other child

## Risk Factors (continued)

- Maternal (8)
- <21 years
- depression
- fair/poor health
- prenatal smoking
- prenatal drug use
- substance abuse problem
- domestic violence victim
- no perceived social support
- Paternal (6)
- <21 years
- <high school
- health limits work
- unemployed at child’s birth
- substance abuse problem
- incarcerated at child’s birth

## Outcomes

- Child Behavioral Problems at age 3
- Aggressive (Standardized)
- Mean = 1
- SD = 0
- 15 questions
- Anxious/Depressive (Standardized)
- Mean = 1
- SD = 0
- 10 questions
- Based on 1992 Child Behavioral Checklist subscales (Achenbach, 1992)

## Average Cumulative Risk at BirthBy Relationship Status

**Average Cumulative Risk at Birth****By Relationship Status**

- Risk factors include: lbw, <150% poverty line, public housing, unsafe neighborhood, family density>2, mom has other child, dad has other child, <21yrs, depressed, fair or poor health, prenatal smoking, prenatal drug use, substance abuse problem, abusive relationship, low social support, dad health problem, dad<21yrs, dad<hs, dad drug problem, dad in jail, dad unemployed.

- Unadjusted

**Notes:**
Married has fewest risks as compared to cohab and single

## Distribution of Number of Risks at BirthBy Relationship Status

## Most Prevalent Risk Factors for Children Born to Unmarried Parents

| Risk Factor | Married | Cohabiting | Single |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| < 150% Poverty | 25% | 52% | 69% |
| Mom Other Kid | 10% | 41% | 35% |
| Dad Other Kid | 13% | 35% | 49% |
| Mom Young | 7% | 33% | 48% |
| Dad <HS | 21% | 34% | 33% |

**Notes:**
Almost all kids born to unmarried parents have at least one risk – so I wanted to know what this risk might be – these risks occur in at least 1/3 of unmarried families – surprisingly – these are the most common for each race/ethnic group – which I’ll show in a bit.

## Average Cumulative RiskBy Relationship Status and Education Level

**Average Cumulative Risk****By Relationship Status ****and Education Level**

- Risk factors include: lbw, <150% poverty line, public housing, unsafe neighborhood, family density>2, mom has other child, dad has other child, <21yrs, depressed, fair or poor health, prenatal smoking, prenatal drug use, substance abuse problem, abusive relationship, low social support, dad health problem, dad<21yrs, dad<hs, dad drug problem, dad in jail, dad unemployed

**Notes:**
Difference by family structure is smaller than difference by education level.  In all cases, married are better than cohabitors and singles: and more education is related to fewer risks.
Again, wanted to see what the risk factors are for kids born to college educated

Does this work the same with race?

## Most Prevalent Risk Factors for Children Born to Unmarried, College Ed Parents

| Risk Factor | Married | Cohabiting | Single |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| < 150% Poverty | 2% | 7% | 7% |
| Mom Other Kid | 2% | 36% | 22% |
| Dad Other Kid | 6% | 27% | 32% |

**Notes:**
This shows that the most common risk factors for kids born to college educated moms are that they have children from a prior relationship (often a divorce) – but it is NOT poverty.  

## Average Cumulative RiskBy Relationship Status and Race/Ethnicity

**Average Cumulative Risk****By Relationship Status ****and Race/Ethnicity**

- Risk factors include: lbw, <150% poverty line, public housing, unsafe neighborhood, family density>2, mom has other child, dad has other child, <21yrs, depressed, fair or poor health, prenatal smoking, prenatal drug use, substance abuse problem, abusive relationship, low social support, dad health problem, dad<21yrs, dad<hs, dad drug problem, dad in jail, dad unemployed

**Notes:**
There are few differences between race/ethnic groups – with the exception of married – married whites do best – marriage is more protective for whites – but that could be because married whites are more likely to have a college degree. (30%, vs 4.7 and 3.5)
So if we look within a given education level – the differences by race are negligible.

## Most Prevalent Risk Factors for Children Born to Unmarried, White Parents

| Risk Factor | Married | Cohabiting | Single |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| < 150% Poverty | 9% | 53% | 47% |
| Mom Other Kid | 3% | 46% | 26% |
| Dad Other Kid | 4% | 25% | 49% |
| Mom Young | 4% | 44% | 43% |
| Dad <HS | 3% | 36% | 30% |
| Prenatal Smoking | 8% | 45% | 40% |

**Notes:**
Marriage seems to benefit whites the most – the common risk factors are the same for all r/e groups – but the difference in these risk factors between married and unmarried is much larger for whites than for blacks or hispanics – and the level of risks are higher for each minoirty group

## % Children < 150% Poverty by Relationship Status and Race/Ethnicity

**Notes:**
Marriage seems to benefit whites the most – the common risk factors are the same for all r/e groups – but the difference in these risk factors between married and unmarried is much larger for whites than for blacks or hispanics – and the level of risks are higher for each minoirty group
Example of poverty

## Contribution of Each Type of Risk Factor to Cumulative Risk Score

**1.54**

**4.31**

**3.53**

**21**

## Aggressive Behavior at Age 3 

|  | 

(1) | Individual Risk Factors
(2) | Cumulative Risk Score
(3) | Categorical Risk Score
(4) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| (Married) |  |  |  |  |
| Cohabiting | .18** | .10* | .09^ | .10* |
| Single | .24** | .13* | .11* | .13* |
| Risk Score |  |  | .07** |  |
| (0 risks) |  |  |  |  |
| 1-2 risks |  |  |  | .09 |
| 3-4 risks |  |  |  | .19** |
| 5-6 risks |  |  |  | .32** |
| 7+ risks |  |  |  | .52** |
| R2 | .0300 | .0592 | .0471 | .0446 |

- All models include controls for education level and race/ethnicity.

**Notes:**
In individual model Race (black and hispanic) is significant, but not education.  Poor, depression, prenatal smoke, father substance abuse.

## Anxious/Depressive Behavior at Age 3 

|  | 

(1) | Individual Risk Factors
(2) | Cumulative Risk Score
(3) | Categorical Risk Score
(4) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| (Married) |  |  |  |  |
| Cohabiting | .19** | .15** | .12* | .12* |
| Single | .24** | .17** | .13* | .13* |
| Risk Score |  |  | .06** |  |
| (0 risks) |  |  |  |  |
| 1-2 risks |  |  |  | .11 |
| 3-4 risks |  |  |  | .24** |
| 5-6 risks |  |  |  | .29** |
| 7+ risks |  |  |  | .46*** |
| R2 | .0849 | .1079 | .0970 | .0954 |

- All models include controls for education level and race/ethnicity.

**Notes:**
In individual model Race (black and hispanic) is significant, but not education.  Poor, depression, prenatal smoke, father substance abuse.

## Research Question 1

- How do the number and type of risks that children are exposed to at birth differ by their mother’s relationship status?  Is the pattern similar within all education levels and race/ethnic groups?
- Children born to unmarried mothers experience about twice as many risks as children born to married mothers.
- This is true regardless of the mother’s education level or race/ethnicity. Marriage may be most protective for White children.
- Most common risks for children born to unmarried parents are <150% poverty, multipartner fertility, and young age of parents.

**Notes:**
Does measuring risk individually or as a cumulative risk score explain more of the difference in child behavior?

Is the effect of risk similar for all relationship statuses?

## Research Question 2

- Do differences in risk factors at birth by relationship status explain subsequent differences in child behavior across relationships?  Is the effect of risk similar for all groups?
- Differences in exposure to risks at birth explain about half of the difference across relationship status for aggressive behavior at age 3, but about 1/3 for anxious/depressive behavior.
- The effect of the risks (measured cumulatively) is similar by relationship status, education level, and race/ethnicity.

**Notes:**
Does measuring risk individually or as a cumulative risk score explain more of the difference in child behavior?

Is the effect of risk similar for all relationship statuses?

## Research Question 3

- Are the effects of risks cumulative?  Is there a threshold effect?
- Aggressive behavior
- The effect of risk is additive; there is only a small cumulative effect.
- This pattern is similar for each relationship status.
- Anxious/Depressive behavior
- There is a threshold effect at 7 or more risks; the effect of risk is cumulative.
- This pattern is similar for each relationship status.

**Notes:**
Does measuring risk individually or as a cumulative risk score explain more of the difference in child behavior?

Is the effect of risk similar for all relationship statuses?

## Research Question 4

- What risks matter most?  Are they policy amenable?
- The domains of risk contribute similarly to the overall risk score for each relationship status.
- Differences between married and unmarried families are greatest for:
- lbw, <150% poverty, public housing, multipartner fertility, maternal age, depression, prenatal smoking, lack of social support, paternal age, and paternal employment.
- Factors most predictive of child behavior are:
- <150% poverty, maternal age, depression, prenatal smoking, paternal employment and substance abuse.

**Notes:**
Yellow shows that risks that are also the most prevalent – the others are less than 33% for the groups – 

## Average Cumulative Risk at BirthBy Relationship Status

**Average Cumulative Risk at Birth****By Relationship Status**

- Risk factors include: lbw, <150% poverty line, public housing, unsafe neighborhood, family density>2, mom has other child, dad has other child, <21yrs, depressed, fair or poor health, prenatal smoking, prenatal drug use, substance abuse problem, abusive relationship, low social support, dad health problem, dad<21yrs, dad<hs, dad drug problem, dad in jail, dad unemployed.

- Unadjusted

- Adjusted

**Notes:**
Married has fewest risks as compared to cohab and single