# Presentation: 011876

## Understanding Risk Perception’s Role in the Four Phases of Emergency Management

- FEMA** **
- 10th Annual All-Hazards Emergency Management Higher Education Conference** **
- June 4-7, 2007
- Emergency Management Institute
- Emmitsburg, MD

## What is Risk? 

- Multiple Definitions and Multiple Measures of Assessing Risk
- (Probability of an Accident) X (Losses per Accident)
- R=P (of the Event) X C (Consequences)
- Risk = Hazard + Outrage
- Case Fatality Rates v. Incidence Rates
**The Great Debate: Quantitative v. Qualitative**
**	****	****	****      ****Objective v. Subjective **

## Risk Perception 

- Psychometric Model
- Subjective Experience
- Socially Constructed
- Expert/Lay Evaluations

## What are...

- The most dangerous occupations?
- The most deadly diseases?
- The most likely criminal threats?
- The most dangerous disasters and/or emergencies?

## Reconciling Fact and Perception

**Most Frequent Work-Related Fatalities. Source:  U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries (2005)**

## Fact v. Fiction 

**Difference in Workplace Fatality Counts.  Source:  U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries (2005)**

## Fatality Rates by Occupation

**Fatality Rates by Occupation.  Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries (2005)**

## The Numbers Game

**Number and Rate of Fatal Occupational Injuries. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries (2005)**
** **

## The Subjective Experience and Risk 

| Outrage Factor | More Accepted Risks | Less Accepted Risks |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Voluntariness | Voluntary | Imposed |
| Controllability | Under an Individual’s Control | Controlled by Others |
| Benefits | Clear Benefits | Little or No Benefit |
| Equity | Distributed Fairly | Distributed Unfairly |
| Natural v. Human Origin | Natural | Human Caused |
| Catastrophic Potential | Random, Scattered Effects | Fatalities/Injuries Centralized |
| Trust in Source | Generated by a Trusted Source | Generated by Distrusted Source |
| Familiarity | Familiar | Exotic |
| Age of Victims | Affects Adults | Affects Children |
| Understanding | Self-Explanatory | Poorly Understood |
| Uncertainty | Relatively Known to Science | Relatively Unknown/Uncertain |
| Dread | Little or no Fear, Terror, Anxiety | Evokes Fear, Terror, Anxiety |
| Reversibility | Reversible Adverse Effects | Potentially Irreversible |
| Personal Stake | No Direct Personal Threat | Places People Directly at Risk |
| Victim Identity | Produces Statistical Victims | Produces Identifiable Victims |
| Ethical/Moral Nature | Not Perceived to be Immoral | Ethically Objectionable |

**Subjective Factors that Influence Risk Perception.  Source:  Northwest Center for Public Health (2007)**

## Quantifying Perceived Risk: Expert v. Layperson Perception

| Risk of Death | Layperson | Expert |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Nuclear Power | 1 | 20 |
| Smoking | 4 | 1 |
| X-Rays | 22 | 7 |
| Electric Power | 18 | 9 |
| Police Work | 8 | 17 |
| Alcohol | 6 | 3 |
| Mountain Climbing | 15 | 29 |

**Adapted from *****Ordering of Perceived Risk for 20 Activities and Technologies*****.  Source:  Fischhoff, Slovic, Lichtenstein, Read et al (1979)**

##  Risk Perceptions, Consequences, and Communication: the Explosion at JWR, Inc.’s No. 5 Mine

- September 23, 2001
- Brookwood, Alabama

## BackgroundMine No. 5 and JWR, Inc.

- Mine No. 5 is the deepest vertical shaft in North America
- 2,140 feet deep
- Over 9 miles long
- Runs along the Blue Creek coal seam
- Opened in 1979, closed in 2006

- Considered one of the most “gassy” mines in the U.S.
- Owned and operated by Jim Walters Resources, Inc.
- Company has annual payroll >100 million dollars, employs >1400, and produces 7 million tons of coal each year

## The Accident

- Sunday, September 23, 2001
- Idle maintenance day
- Less than 10% of the normal workforce was working the 3-11 shift (32 workers in the mine)
- Miners working in unfamiliar areas of the mine
- Accident occurred during “normal” cribbing activities
- Components of a normal accident led to a double explosion

## The First Explosion

- Roof collapses in section 4, onto a scoop battery (5:10 P.M.)
- Shortly thereafter, the arching battery ignited a large amount of methane gas, causing an explosion (5:20 P.M.)
- No one killed during this explosion
- Three miners sustained minor or moderate injuries and one miner was seriously injured
- Human error, lack of communication, and operator failure (JWR’s) contributed to a second more powerful explosion

## Communication

- 	Miner involved in first explosion contacted the control office (CO) within ten minutes of the explosion and advised:
- that there had been an explosion
- section 4 was damaged
- there was a large amount of gas/dust present
- one man was badly injured
- that all electrical currents should be turned off

## Lack of Communication

- CO contacted 911, supervisors, and Lifeflight, but lost contact with miners
- Asked a supervisor at the other end of the shaft (40 minutes away) to investigate
- Did not issue a mine-wide evacuation or indicate to the 28 other miners in the mine that they were in imminent danger

## Best Intentions

- After the first explosion, with limited knowledge of what occurred and little guidance from the command office, 12 miners who were in unaffected areas of the mine rushed to the aid of the sole injured miner remaining in section 4

## The Second Explosion

- Occurred nearly an hour after the first (6:15 P.M.)
- An energized track haulage block light system ignited the second explosion
- Second explosion fueled in part by the large amount of methane gas released during the roof collapse and first explosion

## The Aftermath

- List of Injured Miners.  Source:  United Mine Workers of America (2002)

## The Aftermath

- Area Affected by Explosions. Source: United States Mine Rescue Association ( 2002)

## Two Versions of Cause and Blame

- UMWA
- A failure to adequately control the mine roof
- A failure to have the mine properly examined for hazards
- A failure to properly vent the mine
- A failure of the mine operator to comply with the Mine Act and a failure of the MSHA to effectively enforce the Mine Act

- UMWA’s Accident Findings. Source: UMWA’s Report on JWR’s No. 5 Mine Accident (2002)

## Two Versions of Cause and Blame

- MHSA
- Failure of JWR to:
- Determine the seriousness of the roof conditions at Section 4
- Failure to contain rock dust
- Failure to adequately inspect mine
- Failure to initiate a mine-wide evacuation
- Failure to de-energize all electrical circuits entering Section 4

- MSHA Accident Findings. Source:  John R. Correll, Deputy Assistant Secretary, MHSA (2002)

## Fall Out

- Internal investigation of MHSA District 11
- Emergency Temporary Standard issued nationwide on December 12, 2002
- Nearly $500,000 in fines levied by MHSA at JWR, Inc.
- Multiple lawsuits on behalf of decedent’s family members— settled out of court in 2005
- Mine closure in December, 2006

## Emergency Temporary Standard

- Requires that a designated responsible person take charge in any mine emergency and evacuate the mine if there is imminent danger to the miners
- Only properly trained and equipped persons essential to respond to the emergency may remain underground

## FATALGRAM

**Best Practices**
- Always ensure that the roof and ribs are stable at electrical installations.
- Ensure that stoppings are well constructed and maintained.
- Ensure that roof and ribs are closely evaluated during the required examinations and always be aware of changing conditions.

**Fatalgram, JWR Inc.’s No. 5 Mining Accident. Source: MSHA (2002)**

## What Does this Mean for Emergency Management? 

- Understanding risk perception helps the EM understand public priorities
- The EM becomes cognizant of how risk perception impacts behavior
- The EM better understands risk amplification and attenuation
- Understanding risk perception is important when developing appropriate education and communication strategies

**Risk Perception and Emergency Management.  Source: Adapted from Clinton Jenkin’s *****Risk Perception and Terrorism: Applying the Psychometric Paradigm***** (2006**)

## What Does this Mean for Higher Education? 

- Additions to Curriculum:
- Social Psychology
- Communication
- Epidemiology
- Occupational Health and Safety

## Communicating Risk

- Know Your Audience
- Don’t be Afraid to Frighten People
- Acknowledge Uncertainty
- Share Dilemmas
- Give People Things to Do
- Speculate — Responsibly
- Stress Magnitude Rather than Probability
- Release Messages Early and with Candor
- Guide Adjustment Reaction — “New Normal”

**Communicating Risk. Source: Perspectives in Health Magazine (PAHO),  Peter Sandman and Jody Lanard (2005)  **

## Questions? Comments? 

## References 

- Jenkin, C. (2006)  Risk Perception and Terrorism:  Applying the Psychometric Paradigm. *Homeland Security Affairs. 2* (2). 1-12. Retrieved March 1, 2007, from _[http://www.hsaj.org/?fullarticle=2.2.6](http://www.hsaj.org/?fullarticle=2.2.6)__._
- Northwest Center for Public Health. (2007)  *Risk Communication*.  Retrieved April 20, 2007, from
- 	 _[http://www.nwcphp.org/riskcomm/intro_erc/resources/ofactor.html](http://www.nwcphp.org/riskcomm/intro_erc/resources/ofactor.html)_
- Sandman, P.M., & Lanard, J. (2005).  Bird Flu: Communicating the Risks. *Perspectives in Health, 10* (2), 2-9.
- Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B. & Lichtenstein, S. (1979). Rating the Risks.  *Environment 2* (3). 14-20. Revised in Slovic, P. (ed). (2000). *The Perception of Risk*. Sterling, VA:  Earthscan.
- United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2005). *Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries Charts 1992-2005*. Retrieved
- 	   May 1, 2007, from http://www.bls.gov/iif/oshcfoi1.htm#charts
- United States Department of Labor, Mine Safety and Health Administration.  (2002, December 11). *DOL News Release,* USDL (02-689).  Retrieved March 2, 2007, from _[http://www.msha.gov/MEDIA/PRESS/2002/NR021211](http://www.msha.gov/MEDIA/PRESS/2002/NR021211)__, HTM_
- United States Department of Labor, Mine Safety and Health Administration. (2002, December 11).  *Report of Investigation:  Fatal Underground Coal Mine Explosion September 23, 2001.*  Retrieved February 27, 2007, from http:  _[www.msha.gov/fatals/2001/jwr5/ft101c2032light.pdf](http://www.msha.gov/fatals/2001/jwr5/ft101c2032light.pdf)_
- United States Department of Labor,  Mine Safety and Health Administration. (2003, January 24).  *Internal Review of MSHA’s Actions at the No. 5 Mine Jim Walter Resources, Inc.  Brookwood, Tuscaloosa County, Alabama*.   Retrieved February 28, 2007, from http:  _[www.msha.gov/MEDIA/PRESS/2003/MSHA-IR-JWR5.pdf](http://www.msha.gov/MEDIA/PRESS/2003/MSHA-IR-JWR5.pdf)_
- United States Mine Rescue Association (n.d.).  *Death Underground.*  Retrieved February 26, 2007, from http:// _[www.msha.gov/REGS/FEDREG/FINAL/2002finl/02-31358.htm](http://www.msha.gov/REGS/FEDREG/FINAL/2002finl/02-31358.htm)_
- United Mine Workers of America, Department of Occupational Health and Safety (n.d.). *Jim Walter Resources #5 Coal Mine Disaster:  September 23, 1001.*  Retrieved march 1, 2007, from _[http://www.umwa.org/brookwood/UMWA_JWR_Report.pdf](http://www.umwa.org/brookwood/UMWA_JWR_Report.pdf)_