# Presentation: 280693

## Global Beef TradeThe Challenges FacingU.S. Beef

- Internationally, and at Home

## Global Beef Trade

- Overview of International Trade
- The U.S. as Importer and Exporter
- The U.S. Supply/Balance Today

## USDA Forecasts Global Beef Trade at Record Levels for 2002 and 2003...

## ...U.S. Beef Imports are a Long-term Driver of  Global Beef Import Demand (23% of 2003 total trade, 19% in 1990)

## The U.S. has a Long History as a Beef Importer... is a More Recent Entrant into Beef Export Marketing

## Beef Import Markets: Slow Growth, More Concentrated Than a Decade Ago,  Shrinking Outside 10 Core Markets

## Beef Import Markets: US up 1/3, Japan Doubles, Mexico/Canada > Double, Russia Shrinks, Other Asia +2/3

## ...Growth Forecast for 2003, but the Market Concentration Trend of the Past Decade Holds

## Contrast Global Beef Imports With Broilers...More Than Doubled (125%), Equal Growth Outside 10 Country Core

## Contrast Beef Imports With Broiler Growth: Japan x 2, Mexico/Canada x 3, Russia x 12, Other Asia x 2

## Japan’s Flat Per Capita Meat Use Trend Leads to a Dual Market Share Fight, Between Meats and Between Suppliers 

## Japan’s Post-BSE Beef Use Struggles Back Toward (?) 1995 Levels

**19**

**24**

**26.6**

## Korea’s Per Capita Meat Consumption Still Growing...Led by Pork...Beef Imports Set a Strong 2002 Record

## Korea’s Per Capita Use Still Growing, Lost Pork Exports Push Domestic Use, Record 2002 Beef Imports

**12.5**

**27.5**

**32**

**60**

## Mexico’s Per Capita Meat Consumption Growth Steady, Led by Chicken...Beef Stagnates

## Mexico’s Per Capita Meat Consumption Still Growing, Led by Chicken...Beef Stagnates

**12.5**

**27.5**

**32**

**60**

**12**

**22**

**25**

**23**

## Eight Noteworthy Exporters, Key Players Have Offset EU Reductions and More...

## Eight Noteworthy Exporters, U.S. x 2, Canada x 5, Australia + 30%, New Zealand + 17%,  S America + 25%

## A Destination of Choice for Several Competitors Growth is the Generally Expanding US Beef Import Market...

## ...The U.S. Market is Key to Success of 3 Beef Exporters: South American Exporters Seeking Increased Access

## What Do We Know About the Global Beef Trade Situation and the US Role ?

## The U.S.Cattle and Beef Sector

- Meat Consumption Trends
- The U.S. Supply/Balance Today

## 2001 Data to Frame Today's Discussion of Cattle and Beef...

- U.S. slaughtered 35.5 million cattle
- 2.4 million of those were imported (6.8% of slaughter total), valued at $1.5B
- U.S. slaughter produced 11.9 million tons of beef (cw)
- U.S. imported 1.1 million tons of beef (1.4 cw) valued at $2.6B
- A total of 13.3 million tons (cw) of beef was available and used
- 1 million tons went into exports valued at $2.6 B
- 12.3 million tons used for U.S. domestic consumption

## U.S. Per Capita Meat Use:  Mid-Century Gains Slowed and Relationships Between Meats Shifted...

## U.S. Per Capita Meat Use Never Higher: 1976 Peak for Beef, 1985 Poultry Passed Pork, 1993 Poultry Passed Beef

## U.S. Per Capita Beef Consumption Over Time has Been the Loser, Primarily to Chicken 

**80**

**42**

**64**

**97**

## U.S. Beef Production Has Not Met Domestic Use Since 1958, Even With Declining Per Capita Beef Consumption 

## Annual U.S. Beef Deficit Hovered Near 2 Billion Pounds for 20 Years, Has Grown Since Last Cattle Cycle Peak

## What Options Are Available to Balance the Long-term U.S. Beef Deficit?

- Cut beef consumption
- Stop beef exports
- Import beef
- Produce more beef domestically
- Maintain a larger US cattle herd
- Import feeder or slaughter cattle

## U.S. January 1 Cattle Inventory Numbers Have Been on an Extended, Downward, Cyclical Trend...

**132**

**95**

## Cattle Imports Have Held a Position in the U.S. Situation Since the 1980’s U.S. Cattle Inventory Decline...

## Cattle Import Numbers Have Fluctuated at Around 2 Million Head Annually (on a net basis) Since 1990

## U.S. Cattle Imports are Split Relatively Evenly Between Mexico and Canada, Cattle Types Differ Significantly

## ...Cattle Imports are More Significant vs. U.S. Cattle Slaughter Numbers (6-7% of total at present)...

**6-7%**

## ...Cattle Weights are Also Key to the U.S. Beef Situation, 25% Fewer Cattle Slaughtered, Record  Production Levels

**47**

**47**

**35**

## Beef Imports Also Help Balance the U.S. Situation and Have Grown With Each U.S. Cattle Cycle Reduction...

## Since the Mid-1980’s, Beef Exports Have Become an Added Demand Pull on U.S. Domestic Supplies...

## Beef Exports Have Also Reduced the Beef Trade Deficit to Near 40-Year Lows

## Recent Growth in U.S. Beef Imports Exceeds the Patterns Following Previous Cattle Inventory Reductions

## Imports From Australia Return to Historic Highs, Canada Captures the #2 Position in the U.S. Market

## ...Import Unit Values for Beef From Canada Probably Show a Quality Shift and More Market Integration

## Competition for World Markets has Moved U.S. Export and Import Unit Values Closer...($ .25 Jan-Oct)

## The Challenges Facing U.S. BeefInternationally and at Home