# Presentation: 181803

## Climate Prediction Center Update

**Briefing for **
**OFCM – Committee for Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services**
**Jim Laver, CPC**
**May 3, 2005**
**www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov**

## Outline

**  ****NOAA’s Climate Goals, Program, Matrix**
**  ****CPC Services, Products, Partnerships**
**  ****The Climate Test Bed**
**  ****Reanalysis**

## NOAA’s Climate Goals, Program, Matrix

**CPC**

**NOAA’s Climate Goals, Program, Matrix**

## Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond

**Programs**

_***Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond***_

**NOAA’s Climate Program Matrix and ****Relationship to its 2005 Strategic Plan**

## CPC:  Climate Services

**Mission:  Assess and Predict  ****short-term ****climate variability **
***       “******short-term******”  =  next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year;***
***	******	******	******         ******consider the longer term context***
**Responsibilities/Scope:   Deliver and improve - operational climate “nowcasts” and predictions;  national and “global”, with an historical context **
***Vision:  Climate predictions as reliable and applicable as weather predictions***

## Services: Climate & Weather

**Notes:**
Key information gaps:

- Influence of land surface properties (e.g., soil moisture, snow, vegetation,  topography)

- Impact of global ocean conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature, sea ice, salinity, currents)

- Variability of climate modes (e.g., MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, interdecadal variations)

- Understanding the warm season climate system and its predictability

## CPC Service Activities

**Climate Monitoring – Regional, Global**
**Climate Outlooks – U. S. & U. S. Interests**
**Outreach and Dissemination – Internet, AWIPS, NAWIPS, E-Mail**

## Climate Monitoring Activities

**State of Global Oceans – Surface, Subsurface**
**Global Precipitation and Surface Temperature **
**Drought – Global Land/Soil Conditions**
**Global & Regional Atmospheric Circulation**
**Stratospheric Circulation / Ozone**
**Cryosphere – Arctic & Antarctic Ice**
**Episodic Events – Volcanoes, Solar Activity**

**Notes:**
Yellow circles are the four major activities

## Multi-Agency Monitoring Product

**Notes:**
Key information gaps:

- Influence of land surface properties (e.g., soil moisture, snow, vegetation,  topography)

- Impact of global ocean conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature, sea ice, salinity, currents)

- Variability of climate modes (e.g., MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, interdecadal variations)

- Understanding the warm season climate system and its predictability

## Climate Outlook Products

**Tropical Pacific SSTs  (ENSO)**
**Hazard Assessments**
**	****	****- Day 3-14**
**Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks**
**	****	****- Days 6-10, Days 8-14, Monthly & Seasonal**
**Seasonal Drought Outlooks**
**Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic, Pacific)**
**UV Index**

## Products – Hazards Assessments

**Notes:**
Key information gaps:

- Influence of land surface properties (e.g., soil moisture, snow, vegetation,  topography)

- Impact of global ocean conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature, sea ice, salinity, currents)

- Variability of climate modes (e.g., MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, interdecadal variations)

- Understanding the warm season climate system and its predictability

## Making a Seasonal Outlookfor April-June 2005

## OCN

## CAS

- CDC

- Scripps

- CFS

- IRI

- OCN+skill mask

- OCN

- ECCA

- OFFICIAL

- Absent:
- CCA, SMT, MRK, CA-SST,
- local effects, judgment

## Multi-Decadal Conditions Associatedwith Above Normal Hurricane Activity

**Multi-Decadal Conditions Associated****with Above Normal Hurricane Activity**

**These conditions are conducive to tropical storm and hurricane formation as disturbances move westward from Africa into the low-shear environment (red area) of the tropical Atlantic.**

**Higher Pressure Aloft**

**Favorable mid**
**level jet stream**

**August-October **

**Notes:**
Sub tropical ridge is stronger & shifted north.  200-850 mb, 700 mb horiz shear – cyclonic shear – reason is weakening trades at lower latitudes creates effect, plus whole system is farther north.  15N 17.5N  Strengthens these disturbances. 

**Since 1995, 8 of 10 seasons have been above normal. We can expect**
**continued high levels of activity for perhaps the next 10-20 years.**

**Notes:**
Everything flips!  E. Pacific is opposite, e.g. since 1995.  In 2003 no maor hcanes in E. Pac.  C Pac 3-4, some from E. Pac.  Indian Ocean – not enough data  -  others are flukes

## Product for DoD:International UV Index Outlook

**Notes:**
Key information gaps:

- Influence of land surface properties (e.g., soil moisture, snow, vegetation,  topography)

- Impact of global ocean conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature, sea ice, salinity, currents)

- Variability of climate modes (e.g., MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, interdecadal variations)

- Understanding the warm season climate system and its predictability

## We Improve Services & Products Through Partnerships

**NWS**
**Regions, WFOs, RFCs (e.g., drought, product dissemination/interpretation, NAME project )**
** ****Climate Services Division (outreach; user feedback; identifying user needs; education)**
**EMC (dynamical seasonal predictions; week-2 outlooks; Reanalysis – Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System)**
**TPC (Hurricane Season Outlooks)**
**HPC (International Desks, WX/CX connection/hazards, HydroMet Testbed)**
**OPC and SPC (Hazards Assessments)**

## Partnerships, Cont’d

**NOAA**
**CDC  (seasonal outlooks; week-2 outlooks; climate monitoring; ENSO outlooks; climate variability research; climate attribution and Reanalysis....; MOU)**
**GFDL (global ocean models; ocean data assimilation; climate attribution)**
**NCDC (climate monitoring; drought monitoring and outlooks; annual climate summaries; MOU)**
**OGP (applied research support; ARCs)**
**AOML (Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks)**

## Partnerships, Cont’d

**Inter-agency**
**USDA (drought monitoring and outlooks;  global crop monitoring related Wx/Cx support;  Crop Bulletin)**
**NASA/GMAO (seasonal and intraseasonal outlooks; Ozone monitoring)**
**EPA (ultraviolet monitoring and forecasts)**
**DoD (ultraviolet monitoring)**
**FEMA (seasonal and extended-range forecasts)**
**USAID (humanitarian support; climate monitoring)**
**DoE (heating/cooling degree days)**

**Notes:**
GMAO- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

## Partnerships, Cont’d

**University & International **
**International Desks (African Desk, South American,....)**
** ****COLA; U WA; Scripps; COAPS (seasonal outlooks; applied research)**
**Bi-lateral agreements (China, Korea, Vietnam)**
**Canada; Mexico (North American Drought Monitor; North American Monsoon Eexperiment)**
**WMO (ENSO outlooks; Int’l Regional Climate Centers)**
**IRI (dynamical forecasts/tools; Advisory Board)**
**Pacific (Monthly New Zealand/PR conference calls)**

**Notes:**
UW:  University of Washington
SIO: Scripps Institute of Oceanography
COAPS: Center for Ocean Atmosphere Prediction Studies at FSU

## The NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB)

**The NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB)**

**Climate **
**Community**

**NOAA **
**Research &**
**Development **

**NOAA **
**Climate**
**Forecast**
**Operations**

_**Mission:**_** to accelerate the transition of research and development into **
**improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.**

**Notes:**
Key information gaps:

- Influence of land surface properties (e.g., soil moisture, snow, vegetation,  topography)

- Impact of global ocean conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature, sea ice, salinity, currents)

- Variability of climate modes (e.g., MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, interdecadal variations)

- Understanding the warm season climate system and its predictability

## The CTB “Message”:Why it’s Important

- The NOAA CTB will:
-  Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader outside research community by providing an operational testing environment
-  Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models,  and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction
-  Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts
-  Increase the range and scope of applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making end users.

## Reanalysis:  Why it’s Important

**The Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS)**
**The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)**
**An Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System (OACS)**

## Societal Benefits

**Societal Benefits**

- Climate Variability and Change

- Ocean Resources

- Disasters

- Energy

- Health

- Agriculture

- Ecosystem

- Water Resources

_**GEOSS--- Creating a “System of Systems”**_

**Global Observing Systems**
**GCOS**
**GOOS**
**GTOS**
**WHYCOS**
**World Weather**
**IGBP**
**IOOS**
**CEOS**
**IGOS**

**National/Multinational Observing Systems**
**Satellites**
**Surface Obs.**
**Radar**
**Aircraft**
**Ocean Observations**
**Paleo-data**

**Private Sector Observing Systems**
**Satellites**
**Mesonets**
**Lightning**
**Commercial Aircraft**

**Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System**

## Reanalysis and The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

***Proposed synthesis and assessment topic – Product 1.3:***
**“****Reanalysis of historical climate data for key atmospheric features.  Implications for attribution of causes of**** ****observed change.”**
*** ******Significance:***** *****“Understanding the magnitude of past climate variations is key to increasing confidence in the understanding of ***_***how***_*** and ***_***why***_*** climate has changed and how it may change in the future.”***** (CCSP Strategic Plan, chapter 2).**
*** ******Primary end use:***** “To inform policy decisions.” (chap. 11).**
*** ******Time frame for product:***** 2-4 years (chap. 11).**
*** ******Proposed lead agency:***** NOAA. **
** *****Supporting agencies:***** NASA, DOE, (NSF).**

## Reprocessing and Reanalysis are essential

**Given the continuing improvement in our understanding of climate observations and the need for long time series, reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate observing system.  Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing efforts, but risks and limitations abound.**

- Workshop report distributed
- See workshop web site (_[http://www.joss.ucar.edu/joss_psg/meetings/climatesystem/](http://www.joss.ucar.edu/joss_psg/meetings/climatesystem/)__) for pdf version of report and background information from the workshop._

_**Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System**__**18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado**_

## The Workshop concluded that the U.S. must establish a National Program for Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System to provide a retrospective and ongoing physically consistent synthesis of earth observations in order to:

**Design and guide operation of observing systems**
**Produce and sustain the growing climate record**
**Reconcile disparate climate observations and characterize analysis uncertainty**
**Establish initial conditions for climate prediction**
**Validate prediction and projection models on all time scales**
**Provide long time series of global and regional climatic analyses for all types of prediction and projection verification**

**Reanalysis - OACS****Workshop Conclusions**

## Reanalysis Summary & Strategy

*A complete climate observing system requires* *both ongoing, near-real time analyses of the physical climate together with periodic reanalyses that use improved data sets and data assimilation methods*.  _Both_ are essential components of a long-term climate observing strategy.
- The CCSP requirement/deliverable provides an opportunity to initiate planning needed for development of the OACS.
*CCSP high-priority synthesis and assessment products are short-term deliverables (next 1-4 years). While they may take different forms, they are typically envisioned as “state-of-science” reports.*
*Without doubt, the CCSP synthesis reports place another “burden” on the science community.  They are also an opportunity. *
- So far, climate analysis and reanalysis efforts have focused principally on the atmosphere. A longer-term strategy must be developed to analyze and eventually bring together the other, disparate components of the Earth system (oceans, land, cryosphere, hydrology, biosphere) through coupled model assimilation. This will enable a more comprehensive synthesis and understanding of the climate system.
- International coordination is absolutely essential to a successful program – GEOSS must have an OACS!