# Presentation: 781963

## 2007 EIA Energy Outlook, Modeling, and Data Conference

- 2007 EIA Energy Outlook, Modeling
- and Data Conference
- March 28, 2007
- Washington, DC
- Guy Caruso, EIA Administrator

**Notes:**
Hello, I am Guy Caruso, Administrator of the Energy Information Administration.  On behalf of everyone at EIA, I welcome you to the 15th EIA Energy Outlook, Modeling, and Data Conference. 
This conference has traditionally focused on EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook.  The AEO looks out at the energy markets over the long term, the next 20 to 25 years. The AEO is produced using the National Energy Modeling System or NEMS,  a computer-based, energy-economy modeling system of U.S. energy markets. 
You might note that this is a slightly expanded conference name.  We now include reference to the EIA data survey operation.  The nature of the conference is evolving to include participation by all of EIA.  This year’s conference includes sessions that examine short term energy issues over the next 1 to 2 years and the direction of EIA’s electricity data surveys. In future years, we will include presentations by all facets of EIA.

## What is EIA’s Mission?

- Provide high-quality, policy-neutral energy information to meet requirements of Congress, Federal Government, markets, and the public in manner that promotes sound policymaking, efficieint markets, and public understanding
- EIA is Meeting this Challenge
- EIA’s transparent approach, methodology, and presentation of results for each of its products has gained the trust of Congress, Admininstration, and public at a time when energy issues are at the forefront of public discourse
- EIA’s customers recognize that EIA does not develop or advocate policy positions, even though it often assists the Congress and Admininstration with analyses and statistics

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**Notes:**
EIA’s primary reasonability is the provide high-quality, policy-neutral energy information in a manner that promotes sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding.
This conference is part of that process.  It allows us to communicate the results of our effort to you, the customer, and provides an opportunity for you to give us feedback.
We believe the EIA is meeting our primary challenge.  EIA has developed a transparent approach, methodology, and presentation of the results for each of its products that has allowed us to gain the trust of Congress, the Administration, and the public at a time when energy issues are very much on the front page.

## EIA’s Core Program

- Collect, compile and publish reliable energy data, information, and analyses
- Produce short and medium-term energy projections
- Analyze impact of proposed energy programs and policies
- Prepare Service Reports for Congress
- In FY’06 presented 14 testimonies and 35 briefings for Congress
- Prepare special analyses on energy issues and legislation for the Secretary

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**Notes:**
There are 3 components to EIA’s core program.
The first is to collect, compile and publish reliable energy data, information, and analyses.  In FY 2008, we will operate 69 weekly, monthly, and annual surveys and maintain the National Energy Information Center as part of this program.
The second component is to produce short and medium-term energy projections.  The key products produced in this are the Short-Term Energy Outlook or STEO, the Annual Energy Outlook, and the International Energy Outlook.
The third core component is to analyze the impact of proposed energy programs and policies.  EIA does not develop or advocate policy positions, but can analyze proposals by other parties.  For example, we prepare Service Reports for Congress, provide frequent testimony and briefings for Congress, and do special analyses on energy issues and legislation for the Secretary.

## Highlights of EIA’s FY 2007 Program

- Redesign key petroleum and natural gas surveys
- Improve global oil and gas modeling capabilties
- Begin development of monthly ethanol and biofuels data collections
- Continue 2 petroleum marketing surveys
- EIA-856 Monthly Foreign Crude Oil Acquisition Report
- EIA-182 Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Report
- Begin scoping and redesign activities on features to be included in a next-generation U.S. Energy model to help in the evolution of the current National Energy Modeling System

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**Notes:**
In FY 2007, EIA has a program budget of $90.7 million.  This slide lists some of the highlights of the FY 2007 program.  EIA is constantly being asked to address new issues and improve the systems we have in place.
To meet this challenge, EIA needs to maintain a highly trained and skilled group of employees.  In FY 2007, EIA is anticipating hiring about 50 new employees at all levels.  We included a brief flyer on EIA’s openings in your conference brochure.  If you are interested or know someone who might be interested in a career at EIA, please let us know, or direct them to the EIA website.

## Next Generation U.S. Energy Model

- NEMS developed in early 1990s
- Markets have evolved and NEMS model has evolved with them whenever possible
- Model to be developed starting from the current NEMS
- Solicited advice from stakeholders on possible enhancements
- Stakeholders recommended new features/enhancements
- Extend time horizon
- Add technological and program detail
- Enhance integration with world models
- Add more regional detail
- Enhance treatment of infrastructure
- Reconsider the treatment of consumer choice and foresight

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**Notes:**
One of the highlights of the FY 2007 EIA program that I wanted to note was the scoping and design activity that has begun on a next-generation U.S. energy model to evolve from the current National Energy Modeling System.
The NEMS was developed during the early 1990s.  The first AEO produced using NEMS was in 1994.  NEMS has not remained static since that time.  Many improvments have been incorporated in the model, but after almost 15 years, there are elements of energy market that are not addressed adequately in NEMS.
The focus was not on developing a new model from scratch, but doing a major overhaul on the NEMS model to incoporate major enhancments.
EIA has already begun soliciting advice from major stakeholders (e.g., DOE offices, Federal agencies, the DOE labs) 
This slides lists some potential new attributes that might be addressed in this enhanced modeling effort.  The process of identifying the possible changes involves interviews with many parties.  The process is continuing and, as you might guess, we have developed a lofty list of potential attributes. 

## Some Specific Modeling Topics

- Hydrogen markets
- Improved representation of world energy markets
- Offshore wind
- Transmission characteristics
- Improved solution time

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**Notes:**
There are some specific topics that must be considered as listed here that are of interest to us and others.  
We would be very interested in hearing your suggestions for the model during or after the conference.  This is a multi-year process that will involve consideration of a great many suggestions.

## Forecast Publications and Documentation

*Annual Energy Outlook* 2007 (*AEO2007*)
- Assumptions for the *AEO2007*
- Supplemental tables to the *AEO2007*
- Detailed NEMS documentation by module
- AEO web page:
- www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html
- Short-Term Energy Outlook web page:
- http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

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**Notes:**
A major purpose of this conference is to discuss the many points of view relating to energy markets, not just the new NEM. That helps us identify those issues that EIA needs to test through alternative cases using the existing model.
The conference also helps to make EIA’s modeling efforts more transparent.  No matter how transparent EIA is about the assumptions and methodology, as we all know, a projection is only as good as the underlying data.  Given the extensive regulatory and structural changes that energy markets have undergone over the last decade, EIA faces new challenges in collecting data and ensuring its quality. Our goal is to provide the best data, analyses, and projections for our users.

## Outreach and Quality Control

- Energy Outlook, Modeling, and Data Conference
- Focus on model structure, *AEO2007 and *Short-Term Energy Outlook projections, data surveys, and identifying key energy issues
- Need participation by attendees to help us identify important issues and trends that should be considered
- Working group meetings for Government users
- Focus groups on selected topics
- Independent Expert Reviews

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**Notes:**
Today, we are looking for “your” participation in helping us to identify those issues and trends that need to be considered as we develop the EIA products. 
Your comments today along with those we receive during the year from users in the Department of Energy, focus groups, other non-DOE users, industry, and consumers are instrumental in helping EIA to ensure the on-going quality of our efforts.

## Conference Overview

- Overview *AEO2007*: John Conti, Director, EIA’s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
- Keynote Adress – ”The New World of Biofuels--Implications for Agriculture and Energy” by Dr. Keith Collins, Chief Economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture
- 3 concurrent sessions

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**Notes:**
Following my remarks, John Conti, Director of EIA’s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, will present an overview of the recently released 2007 Annual Energy Outlook.  The complete publication summarizing AEO2007 was released on the web in late February.  We will close the opening session with a keynote presentation by Dr. Keith Collins, Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture.  Dr. Collins keynote address is entitled, “The New World of Biofuels—Implications for Agriculture and Energy.”  
The balance of the day will be broken up into three concurrent sessions, one this morning and two in the afternoon.  The topics are listed in your packet in the final agenda.  Each session is one and one-half hours, which should provide time for interesting follow-up discussions.

## Concurrent Session Topics

- Varying Views on the Future of the Natural Gas Market
- Creating a Path to Home Grown Liquids Fuels
- Short Term Transportation Fuels Outlook
- Renewable Incentive Policy Options
- Unconventional Oil Supply: How Much, When, and to What Effect?
- Electricity 2008—The Changing Face of EIA’s Electric Power Surveys
- Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies
- Opportunities and Issues for Ethanol and Biodiesel in the U.S. Transportation Market
- Mid-to-Long Term International Outlooks

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**Notes:**
The concurrent sessions are intended to review the AEO2007 and STEO projection results, discuss issues related to the topic areas, compare the NEMS and STEO methodologies with that used by other organizations, and examine the changing direction of the EIA electric power surveys. 
The topics covered in the concurrent sessions should provide for a lively discussion.  I hope everyone is willing to participate and discuss the issues.  We look forward to your input on EIA’s modeling and survey processes.

## Thank you

- Energy Information Administration
- www.eia.doe.gov
- Guy F. Caruso
- Guy.Caruso@eia.doe.gov
- 202-586-4361

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**Notes:**
A final word.  Your packets include an evaluation form.  This includes questions on the conference as a whole and on the individual speakers.  It also asks you to suggest topics for future conferences.  These are used to help us plan the agenda for next year’s conference.  Please complete the evaluation form and return them at the registration desk in the hallway or by fax after the conference.
Again, thank you for attending.