# Presentation: 487885

## Potential Socio-Economic Benefits of a National Multifunction Phased Array Radar System

**Potential Socio-Economic Benefits of a National Multifunction Phased Array Radar System**
**Presented by**
**Denise Stephenson Hawk, Ph.D.****NCAR Associate Director****Societal-Environmental Research and Education Laboratory**
**Multifunction Phased Array Radar (MPAR) Symposium**
**National Weather Center**
**Norman, Oklahoma**
**10 October 2007**

## Enhanced weather predictions can be used to address concerns regarding...

## Society Needs...

**Effective communication regarding:**
- Uncertainties associated with forecasts of precipitation
- Type and amount of predicted precipitation
- Spatial and temporal extent of predicted precipitation
- Early warning systems that ensure:
- Development and implementation of uncertainty-driven, risk reduction strategies
- Effective interactions between operations staff, service providers and end-users
- Timeliness of predicted weather extremes, e.g., flash flooding
- Local and regional information employed to avoid loss of life and loss of property

## MPAR may potentially...

- Improve modeled weather predictions
- Increase warning times associated with extreme weather events
- Enhance aviation safety
- Save lives

## Consequences of weather-related delays...

- 	Example:  Aviation
- 	Sixty-six percent (66%) of National Aviation System delays from January-August 2007 were weather-related.
- 	On an average day, air traffic controllers handle:
- 28,537 commercial flights (major and regional airlines);
- 27,178 general aviation flights (private planes);
- 24,548 air taxi flights (planes for hire);
- 5,260 military flights and 2,148 air cargo flights (Federal Express, UPS, etc.).
- 	At any given moment, roughly 5,000 planes are in the skies above the United States.  In one year, controllers handle an average of 64 million takeoffs and landings.
- 	Hundreds of millions of dollars ($$$$$$) are lost as a result of weather.

## Consequences of weather-related delays

**For example:  Surface Transportation**
- 	Adverse weather is estimated to play a role, directly or indirectly, in 800,000 injuries and 7,000 fatalities annually resulting from vehicle crashes.  This represents about 28% of all highway crashes and 19% of all fatalities.
- 	In 1999, fog, snow and ice delays of over 544 million vehicle hours resulted in a cost of over $42 billion.
- WIST, FCM-018-2002, December 2002

## Case studies and assessments exist on...

*WHAT WE SEE AND KNOW....*
**There are now many studies of the Societal value of weather information**

*WHAT WE DO NOT SEE AND ASSUME...*

*WHAT WE WANT TO SEE AND EMPLOY...*

**OVERARCHING GOALS**

**Aviation**

- Water

**Public safety**

- $$$$$$$$

**Public** **health**

**Surface Transportation **

**Early warnings**

**Value of forecasts**

**Efficient use of weather information**

**Information that addresses users’ needs**

**Timely, appropriate earliest warnings and responses**

**Grey literature assessments**

**Compilation of “lessons “learned”**

**Studies of impacts when information was available but not used**

**Attempt to improve science-society communications**

***Case studies and assessments exist on...***

**Studies about how users have coped in past and now**

**Weather **_***related***_**  impacts**

**Qualitative and anecdotal information**

**M. H. Glantz, CCB/SERE, NCAR (October 2007)**

## MPAR Risk-Benefit-Cost Analysis should include and address...Need for Coordinated Strategic Relationships and focused outcomes required to ensure Societal Resilience to weather events

## DEFINITION

**Re-sil-ience:  The capacity of a system, community, or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure.**
***From NOAA Guidance Memorandum FY2009-2013***

## End-to-End-to-End Actions

- Transition from Research to Operations...
- Transition from Operations to proactive policies, processes and procedures
- Transition from Operations to Service Organizations and to the Public required to ensure appropriate reactions and actions to weather events

## Requisite Strategic Relationships

- Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research
- Federal, state and local agencies
- Broadcasters
- Educators and Trainers
- Public-at-large

## Desired Outcome:  Development of a comprehensive study delineating the risks, benefits and costs of MPAR

Requisite Staff:  Physical, mathematical, engineering and social scientists, emergency managers, service providers, educators and print and broadcast media; federal, state and local agencies

**Requisite Staff**:  Physical, mathematical, engineering and social scientists, emergency managers, service providers, educators and print and broadcast media; federal, state and local agencies

**Future of MPAR**

## THANK YOU