# Presentation: 030735

## Neuro-Cognitive FuturesCognitive Systems:  Human Cognitive Models in System Design 6 July 2005 

**Michael Swetnam**

## Slide 2

## Mission Statement

**The Potomac Institute for Policy Studies is an independent, 501(c)(3), not-for-profit public policy research institute.  The Institute identifies and aggressively shepherds discussion on key science and technology issues facing our society, providing in particular, an academic forum for the study of related policy issues.  From these discussions and forums we develop meaningful science and technology policy options, and ensure their implementation at the intersection of business and government.  The Institute’s current endeavors have required the formation of special efforts in:**
**	****σ        Terrorism and asymmetry**
**	****σ        Emerging threats and opportunities**
**	****σ        National health policies**
**	****σ        Science and technology forecasting**
**	****σ        National security**

## Potomac Institute Resources

- National Security Projects
- Intelligence Community Restructure/Reform
- Project Guardian – the balance between security and counter-terror tech
- The National Security Strategy Project
- Transformation Strategy – DIA, DOD office of Transformation, QDR support
- International Center for Terrorism Studies
- 40+ year history studying terrorism
- Affiliated with over 40 academic institutions around the world
- Over 100 books and 2000 seminars
- The National Security Health Policy Center
- Anthrax pathology modeling
- Infectious disease modeling and policy development
- DOD Counter-Bio Project
- Center for Emerging Threats and Opportunities (CETO) – a partnership with the MCWL
- Cultural Seminars (India, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan)
- Lincolnia I & II Asymmetric Wargames
- Naval Force protection exercise 3rd Fleet
- Internal Look Wargame II, Homeland Defense – Bio Game
- Arab Perceptions of the US Information Operations Campaign
- Cultural Intelligence Seminar on Afghan Perceptions.
- International
- Technology Trends – NATO – Genoa Italy
- Terrorism Studies – Israel
- Potomac Institute of New Zealand – Technology policy studies

## Disruptive FuturesA subjective Assessment

**Disruptive Futures****A subjective Assessment**

**Digital Revolution**
- Maturing – probably another 10 years of progress
- Biggest impacts are bring realized right now
- A few still to come – medicine, security, governance.
**Bio Revolution – early stages**
- Beginning to realize some impacts
- Biggest impacts are 10-30 years out
**NanoTech Revolution* – early stages**
- Realizing some impacts in nano-materials and simple devices
- Biggest impacts are 15-20 years out
**Neuro/Cognitive Revolution* – very early stages**
- First impacts are in demo/test now
- Significant impacts in less than 10 years
- Biggest impacts ???

*** Multi-disciplinary Revolutions**

## Neuro/Cognitive Impact

**Has the potential to revolutionize the Info-revolution.**
**Change the way we interface with and use computing technology**
**Could easily be bigger and have a larger societal effect than digital, nano, or bio.**
**Digital Revolution provided new tools**
**Bio Revolution will increase our life-spans**
**Nano Revolution will provide new tools**
**Neuro/cognitive will change the way we use tools**
**Neuro/Cognitive technology will revolutionize the way we collectively “think”**

## Policy Issues

- Neuro/Cognitive technology will pose more ethical, legal, and social issues than any technology developed to date.  These will include:
- Privacy/anonymity concerns
- Potential for vast change in our legal system
- Could significantly change our system of governance
- Security will need to be redefined

## R&D Efforts

- DARPA
- Growing effort focused on military and intelligence applications
- Potential for significant growth in FY06/07
- IC
- DDS&T - Growing interest. Some investment.
- NGA – sharp interested, growing investment.
- NSA – just interested right now.
- Sandia National Lab
- NSF/NIH

## Key Research Issues - Neuro

- De-coding the brain.
- Understanding the phenomenological relationship between micro-level (synapse) and macro-level (EEG) signals.
- More fully understanding the EEG phenomenology.
- Development of general models that accurately reflect measurements (EEG, fMRI, etc.) and behavior and cognition.
- Need a center of excellence where we can measure everything simultaneously......
- Fusion of data from imaging, EEG, and other sensors related to behavior and cognition.

## Key Research Issues – Cognitive Computing

- Clearer understanding of the goal..... cognitive computing or neuro-cognitive interface?  They aren't necessarily the same thing.
- Models/software that use EEG, fMRI, etc. as cognitive triggers and ques.
- Models/software that assists neuro research in sorting, clustering, etc.

## Multi-disciplinary 

- Neuro Science
- Neruo Physiology

- Computer Science
- Cognitive Computing

- Signal Analysis,
- etc.

- Neuro-Cog
- Futures

## Current Level of Funding

- Information (digital technology) – Maturing
- Trillions in R&D every year.
- Bio-technology – early stages
- US NIH Budget $28.6B
- International funding >$100B
- Nano-technology – early stages
- US NNI FY2005 funding $982M
- International funding >$3.5B
- Neuro-technology – very early stages
- US NSF/NIH ~$20M
- DARPA ~$50M

## We Need a National Effort

- The National Neuro and Cognitive Initiative (NNCI)
- Central office to focus US attention and funding on high impact S&T.
- Modeled after the NNI and the NCO
- NSF office with representation from all appropriate federal departments
- Current research justifies $100M per year to start growing to $500M

## Questions? Comments Disguised as Questions?

**Michael Swetnam**
**CEO & Chairman**
**Potomac Institute for Policy Studies**
**Ballston Metro Center Office Tower**
**901 North Stuart Street, Suite 200**
**Arlington, VA 22203**
**703-525-0770**
**www.potomacinstitute.org**

*Special Thanks to Sidney Harris for the use of his humor in this presentation*