# Presentation: 679413

## Brian McInerneyHydrologistNational Weather ServiceHydrologic OutlookJanuary 2004

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Temperature

## October Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 5.4 degrees warmer than average

## November Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 2.3 degrees cooler than average

## December Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 3.3 degrees warmer than average

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Precipitation

## Great Basin Precipitation

- Oct.  Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.

| Oct. | 25% |
| --- | --- |
| Nov. | 120% |
| Dec. | 165% |
| Season | 105% |

## Green River Basin Precipitation

- Oct.  Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.

| Oct. | 35% |
| --- | --- |
| Nov. | 140% |
| Dec. | 135% |
| Season | 100% |

## Sevier Basin Precipitation

- Oct.  Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.

| Oct. | 25% |
| --- | --- |
| Nov. | 110% |
| Dec. | 140% |
| Season | 90% |

## Virgin River Basin Precipitation

- Oct.  Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.

| Oct. | 16% |
| --- | --- |
| Nov. | 86% |
| Dec. | 140% |
| Season | 90% |

## Precipitation

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Snowpack

## Basin Snow AveragesNorth and East

## Basin Snow AveragesSouth

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Water Supply Forecast

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes

- January 1st 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
- Utah Area River Basins

- Much Above Normal
- Above Normal
- Normal
- Below Normal
- Much Below Normal

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- January 1st 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Bear River Basin**

- Logan

- 91%

- Bear River

- Bear Lake

- Woodruff

- 61%

- Ut/Wy
- Stateline

- 89%

- Blacksmith Fork

- Hyrum

- 92%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- January 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Weber River Basin**

- Pineview Res.

- 103%

- Gateway

- 92%

- East Canyon Res.

- 110%

- Ogden River

- Lost Creek Res.

- 85%

- Weber River

- Chalk Creek

- 80%

- Oakley

- 86%

- Rockport Res.

- 82%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- January 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Six Creeks River Basin**

- Jordan River

- Little Cottonwood Creek

- 112%

- Big Cottonwood Creek

- 108%

- Mill Creek

- 107%

- Parleys Creek

- 108%

- Dell Fk.

- 107%

- City Creek

- 113%

- Emigration Ck.

- 107%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- January 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Provo River Basin**

- Utah Lake

- Woodland

- 83%

- Jordanelle Res

- 80%

- Deer Creek Res

- 85%

- American Fork

- 116%

- Castilla

- 109%

- 105%

- Provo River

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- January 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Green River Basin**

- Lake Powell Res.

- 90%

- Green River

- 88%

- Price River

- Strawberry Res.

- 108%

- Starvation Res.

- 84%

- Scofield Res.

- 100%

- Colorado River

- Duchesne

- 102%

- Myton

- 81%

- Upper Stillwater

- 90%

- Randlett

- 83%

- Moon Lake

- 90%

- Tabiona

- 91%

- Red Fleet Res.

- 105%

- Flaming Gorge Res.

- 78%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- January 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Sevier River Basin**

- Hatch

- 115%

- Kingston

- 111%

- 89%

- Cedar City

- 85%

- Sevier River East Fork

- Piute Res.

- 100%

- Minersville

- 36%

- Beaver River

- Beaver

- 77%

- Clear Creek

- Sevier River

- Sevier

- 109%

- Gunnison

- 100%

- Salina Creek

- Ephraim Creek

- Sevier Lake

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- January 1st, 2004
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Virgin River Basin**

- Santa Clara River

- Virgin River North Fork

- Virgin River East Fork

- Pine Valley

- 84%

- Littlefield, AZ

- 91%

- Virgin

- 102%

- Hurricane

- 99%

## How do you create a long range forecast?

- PDO

- ENSO

- MJO

- NAO

## Long Range Temperature Forecast

## Long Range Precipitation Forecast

## Summary

- Snowpack is very healthy at this juncture
- Low elevation snowpack is highest in years
- Approximately 50% of snow collection season remaining
- Soil moisture deficit is moderate to high
- Spring climate will be a major force in the amount of streamflow volume to populate reservoirs
- Long range forecast does not point to below average precipitation
- Madden Julian Oscillation moderately active.

## Contact Information

- http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Saltlake/river/presentations
- Additional Information
- Contact
- Brian McInerney
- Hydrologist
- National Weather Service
- 801-524-4377 w
- 801-971-2033 c
- brian.mcinerney@noaa.gov