# Presentation: 228071

## Global Climate Change Research at                                           Economic Research ServiceUSDA

- Carol A. Jones,
*Associate Director for Research*
*Resource Economics Division*
***ERS/USDA***
- August 2, 2002

## Overview of talk

- ERS mission
- ERS climate change research:
- Understanding Ecosystem Changes: Economic impacts of GHG accumulation on global agriculture ($.4mi/year, 00-03)
- Global Carbon Cycle: Economics of mitigation options in agriculture ($.4mi/year, 00-03)
-  => *Research to support decision-making*

## ERS mission: informing decisions through research

- To inform and enhance public and private decision-making
- On economic and policy issues related to agriculture, food, natural resources, and rural development
- Through objective, high-quality, and timely data development, research and analysis
- Target audiences:
- Executive and legislative branch policy makers
- Stakeholders

**Notes:**
Audience for policy analysis:
USDA, other Exec Branch agencies
Congressional staff, members
Congressional agencies
Considerable related policy activity around the Farm Bill, formulated by ag committees 

Other stakeholders: ag sector, environmental interests, 

## ERS research: economic impacts of GHG on global agriculture

- Global world economy model platform (with detailed land, water databases for ag and forestry)
- Impacts via climate change, CO2 fertilization
- Long time horizon: 50-100 years
- Incorporates farm-level adaptations
- Current research cycle: summary of impacts over a range of future temperatures (ERS report in 2003)

**Notes:**
Three key modeling capabilities:
- impacts both of induced climate change (temp and precip) and also through direct effects of carbon dioxide fertilization
- incorporates farm-level adaptations (switching crop and livestock varieties)
- incorporate effects throughout the globe - even if focus were strictly on US, Us well-being depends upon our comparative advantage in the market place relative to others around the globe

Contributed to National Assessment

## Opportunities for mitigationin agriculture

- Carbon sequestration (possibly *increasing* N2O)
- Land management (tillage, irrigation management, fertilizer management, cover crops, eliminating fallow)
- Land use change to grassland, forest
- Emission reduction: CO2, N2O, methane
- Energy emissions** **(direct, induced energy use)
- Livestock: enteric fermentation, manure management
- Bio-energy products (reduces energy CO2 emissions)

## ERS research: economics of agricultural mitigation options

- Model platform reports detailed economic, environmental outcomes for US ag sector
- Short time horizon: 10 years
- Links with ERS research for design of new conservation programs for working lands (complementing land retirement programs)
- Current research: CO2 impacts of land management, land use change (report in 2003)

**Notes:**
Looks at multiple environmental outcomes - not just GHG emissions

Some future research cycle: 
Livestock: water quality and GHG impacts
Ag mitigation options, all GHG: land use change, land mgmt, livestock
biofuels

or maybe just:
 finishing the analysis of all GHG impacts of land use/land mgmt activities

## Providing decision support for mitigation policy design

- Conservation program framework - providing subsidies for environmental outcomes
- Voluntary trading framework, early credit programs
- Broad scale trading of emission reduction credits (with sequestration offsets)

**Notes:**
Trading - requires regulations on allowable emissions

## ERS vision for long-termresearch on GHG 

- Apply different modeling platforms to address different questions asked by US policy makers
- regional/national/global; ag-forestry sectors/all sectors
- Evaluate alternative sources of agriculture emission parameters (IPCC, EPIC, Century)
- Assess impacts on multiple environmental media
- Connect agriculture and forestry sectors
- Employ longer-term perspective (than 10 years) to address permanence, saturation issues - incorporate long-run impacts of GHG into mitigation analysis

**Notes:**
NOTE: This slide starts out as a continuation of mitigation analysis - but then links it to impacts...
Different questions:
National: what is national mitigation supply curve?  
Global ag: 
how well will we compete with ag sectors:
in mitigation supply? 
In commodity supply, as others incorporate incentive policies?
Global mitigation supply across sectors:
how well will ag compete against other sectors in mitigation: 
energy = BIG SOURCE
-------------------
Evaluate alternative sources of agriculture emission parameters (IPCC, EPIC, Century)

## ERS collaborations to promote research

- Interdisciplinary research collaborations within USDA, with academic community
- USDA/EPA Forestry and Agriculture GHG Modeling Forum, to compare research results
- Participants: leading researchers from a range of disciplines, types of institutions
- Multiple modeling platforms represented
- Current focus is on analyzing mitigation
- Research investments are occurring to allow linkage of mitigation and impacts in global level modeling in next 5 years

**Notes:**
Critical collaborations are with biophysical researchers - in ARS, and CSU

## ERS collaborations to coordinate research - 2

- ERS participates in:
- Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group
- Informal ‘Human Contributions and Response’ consultations (NOAA, DOE, EPA, NASA,...)
- Informal connections with Land Use/Land Cover Interagency Working Group

**Notes:**
Provide social science representation, along with FS colleague, on the CC IWG 

Critical and relatively unique role: examining economics of  mitigation
- there is limited social science
- most soc science focuses on impacts (becs agencies have been terrified of being caught doing “policy” after political fall-out in late 90s re: Kyoto etc)  

## www.ers.usda.gov