# Presentation: 728459

## U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2006

**Douglas Le Comte**
**NOAA/CPC**
**32nd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop**
**October 22-26, 2007**

**Morristown,**
**TN, Sep. 12,**
**2007**

## Georgia gets tough

**Georgia gets tough**
**on water use!**

## Outline

**Current Drought and 12-month Evolution**
**Drought in Historical Perspective**
**Selected Drought Impacts**
**Current Drought Outlook**
**Recent Changes to the Outlook**
**Some ideas for future Outlooks**

## Recent U.S. Drought Monitor

## Year-to-Date Drought Change: Wetness Plains Book-ended by Droughts West and East

## October vs April Drought

## Winter Percent of Normal Precipitation

**Downtown Los Angeles had driest**
**“****rain season” since at least**
**1877: 3.21 in., 21% of normal.**

## Western Snowpack 2007 vs 2006

## Streamflow Forecasts 2007 vs 2006

** **

**Spring-Summer Changes**

## Fires Spread Dramatically Across the West in July

## Mid-Atlantic Drought Worsens Sep-Oct

**5 Maryland wells at**
**Record lows mid-October**

**Charles County**
**well sets record**

**Record 34 days**
**without measurable**
**rain at DCA thru**
**October 18, 2007**

## Southeast Virginia: Little Creek Reservoir near Newport NewsOctober 15, 2007

**Photo by**
**Don Aspinall**

## Historical Drought in Alabama

**http://****lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/sep/Reg001Dv00_palm06_01000907_pg.gif**

**One of 2 worst**
**droughts past **
**50 years**

## Georgia Drought

## Lake LanierOctober, 2007

**90-day supply **
**left for Atlanta?**

## Tennessee Drought

**Worst in**
**over 50 yrs.**

## Cherokee Lake in E. Tennessee Sep 12, 2007

**Photo by**
**Brian Boyd**

## North Carolina Drought

**2****nd**** worst in**
**over 50 years**

**Driest May-Sep**

## Kentucky Drought

**2****nd**** worst**
**in over 50 yrs**

## Rankings

**http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/sep/national.html**

## Lake Okeechobee Drops to New Lows

**Levels remain**
**~ 5 feet lower **
**than normal in**
**October 2007**

## Selected Drought Impacts to Crops in the Southeast

**Selected Drought Impacts to Crops in the Southeast**

**Corn Yield vs 2006**
***Virginia -33%***
***Maryland -40%***
***North Carolina -33%***
***Tennessee -15%***
***Kentucky -15%***
***Alabama +1%***
***Georgia +5%***
**Peanut Yields vs 2006**
***Virginia -37%***
***North Carolina -25%***
***Georgia +6%***

## The Seasonal Drought Outlooks

## Last Night’s 5-Day QPF

## One Week Soil Moisture Forecast

## Recent Changes

**Began twice/month schedule (1****st**** and 3****rd**** Thursday)**
**Expanding CPC authors**
**Changed wording of headings (“Tendency”, valid dates)**

## Drought Verification Jul-Sep 2007

## Improvement over PersistencePercent of Grid Points Correct vs a Forecast Based on Persisting Droughts

**Long-term mean = 13%**

## Two Path Approach to Improving Drought Forecasts at CPC

**Continue to produce and refine seasonal drought outlooks for the **_**general public**_
**	****	****a. Consider adding monthly forecasts**
**	****	****b. Consider adding probability information to map**
**Develop **_**objective seasonal probability**_** forecasts for drought (guidance useful for an array of users)**
**	****	****a. Drought probabilities (soil moisture, runoff, drought indices) at some point in the future**
**	****	****b. Probabilities for change**
**	****	****c. Consider NIDIS goals**
**	****	****d. Climate Test Bed products to contribute   **

## One Prototype Suggestion of a Probabilistic Forecast

## University of Washington Forecasts

- http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/outlook/index.shtml

## “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (not Yogi Berra)