# Presentation: 525682

## Service Start to Finish

- Joe Hirman
- SEC Lab Review
- 11-12 July 2000

**Notes:**
My name is Joe Hirman and in this talk I will explain how we develop our service plan for providing the nation’s real-time space weather services.

## Service, Start to Finish

**Understand space environment and its consequence on users**
**Translate user needs into space weather products and services**
**Evaluate and improve customer service**

## Understand space environment and its consequence on users

**Understanding**
- Space environment and space weather
- Impacts on technology and user applications
- Cutting edge users

**Notes:**
To identify the products and services required for the nation’s real-time space weather products and services, we, and our users, need to understand the space environment, its impact on technology, in particular on user applications.

Space environment is large, complex  (VG Space Environment)
Our scientific understanding continues to change (VG major changes in scientific understanding in past four years)
Changes in the space environment, called,  space weather affect technology (VG major impact areas)
Spend time educating ourselves and our users – cycle is 11 years and cutting edge users (GPS, ISS, satellite ops
We exchange information thru a variety of mediums, e.g., space weather week, trade meetings - forecasters actively involved,  media, public, the impact of the web(VG SpWxWk and user  poster)
From all these interactions we identify both the user need as well as what we need to do to accomplish.  (VG forecaster needs + GRH user needs)
Technology and consequently user applications change over time (VG time)
As in the national wx service, we are bound by general vs specific and env vs effect.

## The Space Environment

## Some Effects of Space Weather

## Cutting Edge Users

## Understand space environment and its consequence on users

- Understanding
- Space environment and space weather
- Impacts on technology and user applications
- Cutting edge users
- Education
- Space Weather Week
- Industry/trade meetings
- Media, general public
- Publications, web, telephone, mail

- Poster

- Poster

**Notes:**
To identify the products and services required for the nation’s real-time space weather products and services, we, and our users, need to understand the space environment, its impact on technology, in particular on user applications.

Space environment is large, complex  (VG Space Environment)
Our scientific understanding continues to change (VG major changes in scientific understanding in past four years)
Changes in the space environment, called,  space weather affect technology (VG major impact areas)
Spend time educating ourselves and our users – cycle is 11 years and cutting edge users (GPS, ISS, satellite ops
We exchange information thru a variety of mediums, e.g., space weather week, trade meetings - forecasters actively involved,  media, public, the impact of the web(VG SpWxWk and user  poster)
From all these interactions we identify both the user need as well as what we need to do to accomplish.  (VG forecaster needs + GRH user needs)
Technology and consequently user applications change over time (VG time)
As in the national wx service, we are bound by general vs specific and env vs effect.

## Understand space environment effects and user needs

- Understanding
- Space environment and space weather
- Impacts on technology and user applications
- Cutting edge users
- Education
- Space Weather Week
- Industry/trade meetings
- Media, general public
- Publications, web, telephone, mail
**Considerations**
- General vs. specific and Environment vs. effect
- User requests and Forecaster needs
- Changes in scientific understanding,
-      technology and user application

- Poster

**Notes:**
To identify the products and services required for the nation’s real-time space weather products and services, we, and our users, need to understand the space environment, its impact on technology, in particular on user applications.

Space environment is large, complex  (VG Space Environment)
Our scientific understanding continues to change (VG major changes in scientific understanding in past four years)
Changes in the space environment, called,  space weather affect technology (VG major impact areas)
Spend time educating ourselves and our users – cycle is 11 years and cutting edge users (GPS, ISS, satellite ops
We exchange information thru a variety of mediums, e.g., space weather week, trade meetings - forecasters actively involved,  media, public, the impact of the web(VG SpWxWk and user  poster)
From all these interactions we identify both the user need as well as what we need to do to accomplish.  (VG forecaster needs + GRH user needs)
Technology and consequently user applications change over time (VG time)
As in the national wx service, we are bound by general vs specific and env vs effect.

## The Solar Year

## Recent major improvements

- Scientific Understanding
- CME vs. Flare as a major source of space weather
- Solar wind signatures leading to geomagnetic activity
- Solar features predicting solar eruptions
- Research data and models
- Solar wind data from ACE
- Solar images from SOHO
- Physics based models (MSM)
- Technology
- PC computers
- Internet - WEB

## User Applications Grow over Time

## Translate user needs into space weather products and services

- Identify products
- Specification
- Warnings and Forecasts
- Event analysis (alerts)
- Data and models

- Poster

**Notes:**
Using our understanding of user needs, coupled with our ability to understand, monitor, and predict the space environment, we identified the types of products and services required to meet the need to provide the nation’s real-time space weather services

As in the NWS, we provide four basic products (VG types of products)
Specification – current and past
Warnings and forecasts (POSTER A/W/W_\
Event analysis (Alerts and post-event
Data and models
Large volume but limited obs (most from non-NOAA sources, e.g., images)
Translate data into information, analysis (VG
Develop software to produce products (VG application)
To provide this service, joint operation with USAF, ISES,...24 hours per day 7 days a week (VG hats)
Delivery via (VG methods)
Provide inputs for vendors (POSTER users)

## Translate user needs into space weather products and services

- Identify products
- Specification
- Warnings and Forecasts
- Event analysis (alerts)
- Data and models
- Develop service
- Acquire and process data
- Translate data into information
- Produce products
- 24/7 Joint operations

- Poster

- Poster

- Poster

- Tour

**Notes:**
Using our understanding of user needs, coupled with our ability to understand, monitor, and predict the space environment, we identified the types of products and services required to meet the need to provide the nation’s real-time space weather services

As in the NWS, we provide four basic products (VG types of products)
Specification – current and past
Warnings and forecasts (POSTER A/W/W_\
Event analysis (Alerts and post-event
Data and models
Large volume but limited obs (most from non-NOAA sources, e.g., images)
Translate data into information, analysis (VG
Develop software to produce products (VG application)
To provide this service, joint operation with USAF, ISES,...24 hours per day 7 days a week (VG hats)
Delivery via (VG methods)
Provide inputs for vendors (POSTER users)

## Limited Observations

## Data into Information

- Observations
- Data Compilation
- Data transmission
- Information Processing
- Analysis
- Product Generation
- Dissemination to Users

## Space Weather vs. Weather

## Application

## The Nation’s Space Weather Service

***SEC Provides Services through...***

## Space Weather Operations

## Translate user needs into space weather products and services

- Identify products
- Specification
- Warnings and Forecasts
- Event analysis (alerts)
- Data and models
- Develop service
- Acquire and process data
- Translate data into information
- Produce products
- 24/7 Joint operation
- Deliver information
- Dissemination using latest technology
- Vendors of Space Weather Services

- Poster

- Poster

**Notes:**
Using our understanding of user needs, coupled with our ability to understand, monitor, and predict the space environment, we identified the types of products and services required to meet the need to provide the nation’s real-time space weather services

As in the NWS, we provide four basic products (VG types of products)
Specification – current and past
Warnings and forecasts (POSTER A/W/W_\
Event analysis (Alerts and post-event
Data and models
Large volume but limited obs (most from non-NOAA sources, e.g., images)
Translate data into information, analysis (VG
Develop software to produce products (VG application)
To provide this service, joint operation with USAF, ISES,...24 hours per day 7 days a week (VG hats)
Delivery via (VG methods)
Provide inputs for vendors (POSTER users)

## Evaluate and Improve Customer Service

**Apply service standards**
- Published customer service standards
- Responsible scientist for major data sets
- Quality control of products and services

**Notes:**
To ensure that the service is the best that the nation (NOAA) can provide, we continually evaluate the effectiveness of the service and apply new understanding to improve the service.

Established and followed service standards (VG standards)
Responsible staff have been assigned to monitor all data sets
Quality control programs are in place to review all products for accuracy timeliness,...
A formal verification program has been established to evaluate our forecast products.
Users are contacted, e.g., User Notes, meetings, for inputs
Users have free access to staff and use of the web facilitates feeback
Work with scientific community – advantage of lab with research and ops
Share user and forecaster needs at scientific meetings
Identify candidates for transition to operations (VG RPC )
Share improvements with users.

## Evaluate and Improve Customer Service

- Apply service standards
- Published customer service standards
- Responsible scientist for major data sets
**Quality control of products and services**
**Perform product evaluation**
- Forecast verification
- Surveys
- User feedback

**Notes:**
To ensure that the service is the best that the nation (NOAA) can provide, we continually evaluate the effectiveness of the service and apply new understanding to improve the service.

Established and followed service standards (VG standards)
Responsible staff have been assigned to monitor all data sets
Quality control programs are in place to review all products for accuracy timeliness,...
A formal verification program has been established to evaluate our forecast products.
Users are contacted, e.g., User Notes, meetings, for inputs
Users have free access to staff and use of the web facilitates feeback
Work with scientific community – advantage of lab with research and ops
Share user and forecaster needs at scientific meetings
Identify candidates for transition to operations (VG RPC )
Share improvements with users.

## Evaluate and Improve Customer Service

- Apply service standards
- Published customer service standards
- Responsible scientist for major data sets
- Quality control of products and services
- Perform product evaluation
- Forecast verification
- Surveys
- User feedback
**Facilitate improvements**
- Interactions with research community
- Transition research results into operations (RPC)
- Feedback to users, vendors, researchers,...

**Notes:**
To ensure that the service is the best that the nation (NOAA) can provide, we continually evaluate the effectiveness of the service and apply new understanding to improve the service.

Established and followed service standards (VG standards)
Responsible staff have been assigned to monitor all data sets
Quality control programs are in place to review all products for accuracy timeliness,...
A formal verification program has been established to evaluate our forecast products.
Users are contacted, e.g., User Notes, meetings, for inputs
Users have free access to staff and use of the web facilitates feeback
Work with scientific community – advantage of lab with research and ops
Share user and forecaster needs at scientific meetings
Identify candidates for transition to operations (VG RPC )
Share improvements with users.

## NOAA Space Weather Scales

-      Measures:                  Kp	            GOES >10 MeV protons    Goes X-Rays

**Extreme**
**Severe**
**Strong**
**Moderate**
**Mino****r**

- Poster

## Transition Projects Underway

- CTIM — owner Tim Fuller-Rowell
- IDS — owner Tom DeFoor
- IMAGE — owner Terry Onsager
- Magnetopause — owner Tom Detman
- Relativistic Electrons — owner Capt Chris Smithtro
- Solar2000 — owner Rod Viereck
- Storm — owner Tim Fuller-Rowell
- SXI — owner Steve Hill
- Wang Sheeley — owner Vic Pizzo
- SPE – owner Howard Garcia
- Kp – owner Tom Detman

- Poster

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## Transition Projects Needed

- Real-time quality diagnostics of issued forecasts
- Model Output Statistics-type guidance for all forecasts
- Geomagnetic storm end-time forecast
- Prediction of geomagnetic activity from CME observations
- EUV index
- Radiation belt index
- Better ability to forecast from coronal hole observations
- Improved image analysis capabilities

## Forecaster Needs(NOAA and USAF)

- Improve geomagnetic A, K and probability forecasts (hours to days).
- Improve Solar Particle Events (SPE) forecasts to include start, max, end times; peak flux, spectra; fluence; and probability of occurrence.
- Improve short-term (days) F10.7 forecasts.
- Improve short-term (days) x-ray flare predictions.

## Service, Start to Finish — Summary

- Understanding
- Space environment
- Effects
- Users
- Development
- Products
- Service
- Delivery
- Improvements
- Evaluation
- Transition
- Feedback

## Space Weather Operations