# Presentation: 846369

## S2K+2 will cover the following topics...

- S2K+2 Airline Training

**CCFP **
**CCSD/FCA/RMT**
**SWAP Procedures - CDR, Playbook, Vacape, RAT**
**Pathfinder**
**Diversion Recovery**
**EDCT +-5**
**Systems 2002 Field Training for Controllers**

## Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)

## CCFP, Foundational for SPO

**   ****CCFP is the foundational severe weather forecasting tool in developing the Strategic Plan of Operation (SPO).**

## All stakeholders have agreed CCFP is the thunderstorm forecast product for SPT planning

- CCFP is used during SPT telcons for the development of  the Strategic Plan of Operation (SPO)
- CCFP is intended to be used by traffic planners in developing a _strategic_ plan during thunderstorm activity

- WHAT CCFP IS

## WHAT CCFP IS cont...

- CCFP is a tool that can be used by Dispatchers to supplement weather avoidance planning and pass on suggested routes to AOC Coordinators for the SPT.

## CCFP will not meet all thunderstorm forecasting needs

- WHAT CCFP IS _NOT_

- CCFP is not intended to support tactical decision making
- Other weather forecasting tools (e.g. NCWF, Convective SIGMETS, ITWS, etc.) should be used in conjunction with CCFP

## CCFP is not just an ATC/AOC Coordinator Tool.

- WHAT CCFP IS _NOT_

- CCFP can be used by Dispatchers in considering routings around CCFP forecasted weather.
- Based on CCFP forecasts, Dispatchers can give AOC Coordinators route suggestions on where they would like to route aircraft, in a way that would maintain operational control and safety of flight.
- Make these suggestions to the AOC Coordinator _before_ the Strategic Planning Team Telcon.

## Collaboration vs. Consensus

**CCFP is a Collaboration not a Consensus.**

- CCFP is not a Consensus where all participants agree upon the final product before it is issued
_**CCFP is a Collaboration**_ where all participants contribute their meteorological expertise and a final decision is made by a designated authority** (AWC is that authority).**

## CCFP 

- CCFP
- Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

- CCFP
- Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

## CCFP Overview

- Convective weather is the single most disruptive force affecting the National Airspace System (NAS).  These disruptions are the largest cause of delays in the system

- Mitigation of delays requires collaboration in thunderstorm forecasting used for traffic flow management (TFM) decisions
- CCFP seeks to reduce these disruptions by creating an accurate and reliable convective forecast for strategic use through collaboration

## The Goal

- The goal of the CCFP is to forecast a level of thunderstorm activity (25% coverage or higher) that may impact the NAS.  It is not intended to forecast all thunderstorm activity

- Thunderstorms of less than 25% coverage may still impact the NAS but are handled as a tactical issue with input from local meteorologists

- Maximum Tops (HGHT)
- Growth  (GWTH)
- Probability (PROB)
- Coverage (CVRG)

- CCFP Forecast Format

## Maximum Tops

- Maximum tops within the forecast area are reported in the following three categories
- 25 – 31,000 feet
- 31 – 37,000 feet
- 37,000+  feet
- Note: The heights identified are the maximum tops forecast within the area and not the average.

## Growth

- Growth rate
***++  = ******	******Fast Positive Growth***
***+    = ******	******Moderate Positive Growth***
***NC = ******	******No Change***
*** ******-    = ******	******Negative Growth (area/tops decreasing)***
- The expansion of the thunderstorms needs to be considered as **expanding in 3 dimensions**
- This is an indicator of how the volume of denied airspace associated with the depicted forecast is likely to change with time

- Probability is the term defined as one of three classes:
**70 to 100% High**
**40 to 69% Medium**
**1 to 39% Low**
- This feature is used by forecasters to give an estimate of how confident they are a region will develop and is normally determined through the collaborative discussion.

- Probability

## Solid lines 		 of convection would be depicted as a purple line
High 75 to 100% and Med 50 to 74% - are areas where overall coverage is likely to exceed 50%. 
Low 25 to 49% - is an area of mostly scattered thunderstorms that are predicted to cover 25 to 49% of the area. 

- Coverage

**Solid lines** 		 of convection would be depicted as a purple line
**High 75 to 100%**** **and** ****Med 50 to 74%** **-** are areas where overall coverage is likely to exceed 50%.
**Low 25 to 49%** - is an area of mostly scattered thunderstorms that are predicted to cover 25 to 49% of the area.

## Probability & Coverage

- Low Probability and Low Coverage gives us a higher potential to transition this airspace.

## Initial Product

- 60 minutes before final issue time AWC will post the initial forecast to the chat room for review

- 45 minutes before final issue time the chat room session commences
- 15 minutes before final issue time AWC closes the chat room session and develops the final forecast product based on chat room participation

## Final Product

- The final forecast product is posted on the Web

- The SPT uses the final forecast product for the development of a strategic plan

## CCFP Timetable (UTC)

## CCFP Web Locations 

- AWC:	http://cdm.aviationweather.noaa.gov/ccfp/index.php3
- Forecast Systems Lab:
- 	http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/
- ATCSCC:
- 	http://www.fly.faa.gov/

**Command Center Web Site WWW.FLY.FAA.GOV**

**Notes:**
You can display the CCFP by going to the Command Center Web Site, clicking on Products and choosing the “Collaborative Forecast Product.

## CCFP 

- CCFP
- Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

- CCFP
- Collaborative Convective Forecast Product