# Presentation: 210357

## Third GOES-R Users’ ConferenceBroomfield, Colorado Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather ServicesDirector, National Weather ServiceMay 10, 2004

**A Vision for Environmental Services in the GOES-R Era**

**Notes:**
It is clear that by the GOES-R era, there will be no difference between weather, water, earth, oceans, biology...

NOAA is moving towards being a full-service environmental agency.

My talk is not about what the NWS needs to get our job done, because by the GOES-R era we will have a different job to do.

When ROES-R is launched, the world will be a different place.

## Overview

**The Vision**
**Understanding the Earth System**
**It Begins With Observations **
**Services in the GOES-R Era **
**Current Scenario... Tomorrow’s???**

## NOAA Vision

**NOAA Vision**

**To move NOAA into the 21st Century scientifically and operationally, in the same interrelated manner as the environment that we *****observe and forecast*****, while recognizing the link between our global economy and our planet’s ecology.**

**Notes:**
We are guided by the NOAA vision.

This vision was created out of input from constituents and employees.

It’s important to note that our agency is addressing global environment challenges in an interrelated manner (matrix etc) just as the environment that we observe and forecast is inherently interrelated, 

And

We recognize the link between our planet’s ecology and our global economy.

## We Can Not Stand Still

**Users’ Needs Continue and Evolve**
**Science and Technology                                                Continue to Advance**

**Notes:**
Clearly, We can not stand still...  There are things we know we must do...

Coastal Impacts
Coastal storms account for 71 percent of recent U.S. disaster losses annually.
Each event costs roughly $500 million. With 14 events in a year, losses would total $7 billion per year.

From the Ocean Commission:
Coastal watershed counties representing 25 percent of the nation’s land area have continued to support approximately 52 percent of the U.S. population over the past three decades. Between 1970 and 2000, the population of coastal watershed counties grew by 37 million people and is projected to increase by another 21 million by 2015.   At that point, the U.S. coasts will have absorbed more than 58 million additional residents since 1970—more than 1.1 million a year. This steady influx of people into a relatively small area has already created coastal population densities that are on average two to three times higher than that of the nation as a whole.

Definition of coastal watershed:  counties with at least 15 percent of their land area in a coastal watershed. Based on this methodology, the United States has 673 coastal watershed counties: 285 along the Atlantic Ocean; 142 in the Gulf of Mexico region; 87 bordering the Pacific Ocean; and 159 fronting the Great Lakes.

Drought and fresh water availability are growing National Concerns
$6B-$8B in losses per year

Severe weather (atmosphere & space) continues to have major impacts on the Nation
Cause $11B in damage per year – 523 Casualties

Poor air quality has significant effect on Nation’s health and economy
Pollution causes up to 60,000 deaths and $150B in costs per year

## Understanding the Earth as a Whole System

**Coupling atmospheric, terrestrial, and ocean processes**
**Holistic analyses**
**Ecosystem based management**

**Notes:**
Already it is not meaningful to forecast just the atmosphere because our planet works as one system where all parts work in an interrelated manner: land, ocean, atmosphere, species, chemicals, etc,

## It Begins with Observations

**  ****Decentralized observing responsibility**
**  ****99 observing platforms**
**  ****521 environmental parameters**

**NOAA Today:**

**Notes:**
With the exception of satellite systems, in general NOAA’s observation systems have been developed and deployed by individual Line Offices to meet specific program needs. Consequently, these observing systems have met a narrowly focused set of requirements. 
This decentralization of observing responsibility and lack of an architecture has made it difficult to ensure that observing systems are: 
(1) designed to provide the maximum value to NOAA, (2) not duplicative of existing systems, and (3) operated efficiently and in a cost-effective manner. 

The need for more data which provide higher spatial and temporal resolution is growing exponentially. NOAA currently operates too many observational platforms that are not integrated and are growing too costly to operate and maintain. Additionally, NOAA often finds itself with an observation system but not the means to utilize the data nor to provide long term archive and access for the data. 

## Increasing Earth Observing Systems

**International Observations**
**Private Networks**

**Notes:**
We are not alone in developing new observing systems.

The international community is clearly a partner in our efforts to monitor (“taking the pulse of our planet”) the Earth’s complex and interrelated processes.

Private mesonets are now available that increase the spatial density of the overall observing process.

What about the Citizen Weather Observer Program (CWOP)?

Citizen Weather Observer Program Map (inset) -- map shows current/live observations (as of 5/6.04) from CWOP; each blue dot indicates a truck or car or private weather station that is relaying temperature data.

The Citizen Weather Observer Program is a group of ham radio operators and other private citizens around the country that have volunteered the use of their weather data for education, research and use by interested parties. The APRS-IS collects weather data transmitted from individual weather stations and communicates these data to the findu.com server. The server then organizes the incoming data stream and makes the weather data available to the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) at 15-minute intervals. This is all done in the public service tradition of amateur radio and good citizenship. 

When these data are used only by the weather station owners, data quality is not a big issue. With the communications revolution and the vast capabilities of the internet, many people with weather stations are sending their weather data far and wide for other people to use.  In that case, data quality matters.   

##    “Right now many thousands of separate technological assets are demonstrating their value around the globe, in estimating crop yields, monitoring water and air quality, improving airline safety, and forecasting life-threatening natural hazards.  But this technology is not set up to talk to each other. Once linked as a system of systems, the societal pay-offs will be as broad as the planet itself.”
					- Mike Leavitt, EPA Administrator  

- 					- Mike Leavitt, EPA Administrator**  **

## Integrated Observing Systems

**Build an effective “system-of-systems” infrastructure**
- 	-  *Transform ground-based “stove-piped” observations into**   an  integrated system  *
*	**-**  Enhance performance, continuity, and interoperability across NOAA*
- 	-  *Bridge and coordinate research-to-operations across all Mission Goals*
**NOAA Observing System Architecture**

**Notes:**
We are talking now about a system of observing systems

Recently NOAA has established an observing system architecture effort. The first step was to inventory of our observing networks. We found that we have 99 separate observing systems measuring 521 different environmental parameters. We also found that we have room to further optimize the system. We are now in the process of identifying where duplication exists, and where critical gaps remain. Understanding and cataloguing user requirements will be a major part of this effort. If we can develop an integrated system, fully wired and networked together without duplication, we then have the freedom to install needed new observing stations as well as add new sensors to current platforms. In addition, and most importantly, user data will be easier to process, distribute, and archive in an accessible and affordable.

NOAA Observing Systems Architect Office
• Responsible for
– Maintaining baseline NOAA Observing Systems Architecture
– Developing target (10-20 years) NOAA Observing Systems
Architecture
• Resides in NESDIS with dual reporting to NESDIS and PPI

NOAA Observing Systems Council (NOSC)
Mission:
– Principal advisory body to the Under Secretary for NOAA’s Earth observation and data management (end-to-end) activities
– Principal coordinating body for NOAA to the White House Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR)
Subcommittee on Earth Observations in developing an international, comprehensive, coordinated and sustained Earth observation system

Target NOAA Observing Systems Architecture (NOSA)
• NOAA target architecture for the next 10-20 years
– Will be developed by NOAA observing systems architecture office and approved by corporate NOAA
– First draft will be available in FY04
• Encompasses all observing platforms
– Remote Sensing platforms (Spaceborne, Airborne, Sea-based) and In-Situ
– Includes associated data management systems
• GOES R requirements allocations and system architecture will be reviewed for conformity to NOAA architecture

## We Will Assimilate

**Notes:**
What the NOAA/NWS must do is assimilate data from all observing systems and networks of varying quality to improve and expand our services.

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
JCSDA goals:
A virtual center collaboration between NASA, NESDIS, OAR, NCEP designed to support the goals of the USWRP by accelerating use of advanced satellite data in NWP models 
JCSDA assumptions about development:
Common community model, data assimilation infrastructure, and radiative transfer model 

NOAA and NASA have formed a "virtual" center aimed at combining the strengths of both organizations to advance the use of satellite resources for improving numerical weather prediction. The majority of the work performed by the new Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) will be distributed geographically and organizationally among NOAA and NASA components.

According to Stephen J. Lord of NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center, JCSDA efforts will focus on improving the use of satellite data in current operational and research weather forecast systems, and preparing for new instruments to be launched later this decade. Initial activities will concentrate on setting up the infrastructure for the center, including developing and maintaining computer codes, establishing system databases, and developing software which will be shared among the satellite data assimilation community. Initial support for the center comes from NWS, NESDIS, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and the NOAA OAR Office of Weather and Air Quality Research.

## Services in the GOES-R Era

**Environmental Situational Awareness**
**Environmental Situational Understanding**
**Action!**** **

## Environmental Data Requirements

**Notes:**

A page from the GOES-R Program Requirements Document (11/13/03).

## How Do We Get There From Here?

**Notes:**
HES = Hyperspectral Environmental Suite

We’ve have asked for these EDR’s, now how will we translate these new data sets into useful and meaningful information and knowledge for our customers?

## National Centers for Environmental Prediction

**National Centers for ****Environmental**** Prediction**

**Notes:**
The NWS’s NCEP is already poised to provide environmental guidance.

We are moving the Space Environment Center from research (OAR) to operations (NCEP).

## Air Quality Forecasts

**Vision:****  **
- Protect lives, property and health by providing an air quality forecast for the U.S.
**Ozone in northeast U.S. by 2005**
**Ozone nationwide by 2009**
**Aerosols by 2012**
- Partnerships

**Notes:**
Poor air quality leads to health problems and loss of life. In cooperation with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and state and local agencies, NWS will provide operational air quality models and generate forecast pollutant concentrations and provide them to the EPA. 

Following a 2002 Congressional mandate, the NWS is implementing a National Air Quality Forecast (AOF) Capability. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and NOAA are jointly developing a forecasting tool which will predict air quality for communities across the Nation. The new capability will provide hourly gridded forecast guidance for next day ground-level ozone. This guidance will provide more accurate predictions of poor air quality, in time for people to take action to limit harmful effects. 

This summer, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is integrating and testing a NOAA/EPA-developed air quality model system as a first step towards planned operational deployment over the northeastern United States in September 2004. 

Currently NCEP is testing the model on a daily basis. Evaluation of these test results will be used to refine the system that will undergo summer 2004 real-time testing leading to operational deployment. 

## Aviation Services

**Vision:****  **
- Support FAA’s safe and efficient National Airspace System.
- Increase use and effectiveness of environmental information.
- Reduce number of accidents.
- Low Ceiling and Visibility
- Issue accurate warnings an average of 6 hours in advance for specific airports to provide aircraft enough time to reschedule and/or reroute to avoid hazardous conditions.
- Turbulence and Icing
- Issue accurate warnings an average of 5 hours in advance along flight corridors to allows aircraft to reroute around dangerous areas.

**Notes:**
Today, in the commercial aviation community, weather is responsible for approximately 2/3 of air carrier delays, a cost of $4 billion annually, $1.7 bill of which is avoidable (NASA).

In the GOES-R era, with advanced sounder data, forecasters looking 1 – 2 hours in advance will likely be able to reduce the watch area significantly by approximately 90 percent- will reduce flight delays.  (NCEP, AWC, NASA).

Aircraft damages from volcanic ash reported in 1982 – 2000 approx. $313 M
	GOES-R ABI (Advanced Baseline Imager) is the only planned sensor system capable of detecting volcanic ash plumes within the time frame that they initially occur –

	Estimate that the volcanic ash advisories based on GOES ABI will enable aircraft to avoid 50 	percent of the ash they would encounter in the GOES coverage area –

	 $2.75 M savings in repair costs

## Climate Services

**Vision:****  **
- An end-to-end system of integrated global information of key atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial variables.
- Issue reliable probabilistic forecasts.
- Predict climate variability and change, at time and space scales relevant to ecosystem models.

**Notes:**

The ocean has been called “the memory of the climate system” and is second only to the sun in effecting variability in the seasons and long-term climate changes.

In the GOES-R era – A better understanding of ocean processes should translate into more accurate climate forecasts:
	Increased use and effectiveness of climate observations to improve long-range environmental predictions.

	Increased use and effectiveness of climate information for decision makers.

	Increased use of the knowledge of how climate variability and change affect commerce.

Evidence that climate program is maturing:  Transfer of TAO from Research to Operations.

## Hydrologic Services

**Vision:****  **
- Water Resources
- Provide high-resolution water and soil moisture information and forecasts where and when needed.*  *
- Flash Floods
- Increase warning lead time for counties to as much as 1 hour.*  *
- Water Quality
- Provide reliable surface and sub-surface water quality forecasts.

**Notes:**
In the GOES-R era – Water forecasts that follow the drop of rain of Iowa out to the sea and back again.  

10-year goals –
	Increase the average flash flood warning lead time to 60 minutes for specific portions of counties.
	For river floods increase the average warning lead time to 12 hours.
Water Resources: Provide customers river, lake and estuary forecasts; as well as other high-resolution water resource and soil moisture information where and when needed.  This information will allows emergency, water and natural resource managers to save lives and mitigate losses for conditions ranging from droughts to floods.  
Flash Floods: Increase warning lead time from an average of xx minutes in 2003 for counties to as much as 1 hour for specific portions of counties. This will allow more time for orderly evacuation.  Emergency managers will use this timely information to take mitigating actions that reduce damage to home and businesses.  
Water Quality: Provide reliable surface and estuarine water quality forecasts to support the maintenance, enhancement, and restoration of water supplies for aquatic habitat and domestic agriculture, and industrial use to alert water users, natural resource managers, and others at-risk to take precautions. 

## Public Weather Service

**Vision:**
- Through teamwork, reach every person in the nation with information when and where needed.
- Satisfy customer and partner requirements for consistent, timely, and accurate weather services, products, forecasts, and warnings.
- To support evolving services to support national needs.

**Notes:**

Today:  We deliver a forecast by your zip-code
Tomorrow:  Forecasts for your street address? 

In the GOES-R era we should be able to better evaluate Socio-Economic Impacts of our services:
	Cost-benefits of New environmental information products
	National benefits of improved Weather Information (USWRP)
	National benefits of improved water resource information  

## What Will 2022 Demand of Us?

**Notes:**
What industries will we be serving in 2012?  2022?
Communications, Navigation, Transportation, Power Production, Biogenetics?

What about:

	the Bio technology customers and their requirements?
	the effect of a high water vapor atmosphere on laser communications networks?	a Moon-based Earth observing platform?

	the susceptibility of high speed integrated circuits that are increasingly to perturbations in the Ionosphere?

	unmanned aviation vehicles and their impact on...?

	hydrogen powered vehicles?

What will phased array radar data be able to do for tornado forecasts and warnings?  Will there be a new next-generation radar?  What if we could forecast the the intensity of a tornado as it tracked across the landscape?How are we positioning ourselves for the future?

## Environmental Services 

**Notes:**

Our vision is to expand our weather, water, and climate services and provide Environmental Services

Weather
Space Weather
Atmosphere
Terrestrial Weather
Air Quality
Water
Snow Pack
Lakes
Rivers & Streams
Soil Moisture
Coasts & Bays
Estuaries
Oceans

## Event Scenario

- Seasonal Precipitation

- Above Normal

- Below Normal

**Notes:**
As NOAA Becomes an information agency,  individual users and the private sector will be able synthesize infor+mation and supply services we cannot even imagine. As an example, let’s look at how a Maryland Department of Natural Resources agent might use NOAA and other information.

The seasonal precipitation product is one we issue today.  Emergency managers have asked us to relate our predictions to past events they can remember.  Clicking on the above normal area pulls up a past heavy rainfall event consistent with this prediction.

As the event becomes closer, we issue hazard assessments.  A click on the locally heavy rainfall prediction pulls up a graphic defining the likelihood of the event taking a particular swath across the middle Atlantic states.  

The DNR person wants a worst case scenario.  Selecting a storm track east of the Appalachians he gets river stage information for both the Potomac and Susquehanna rivers.  Since he wants to gage the worst situation, he focuses on the highest potential stage for the  Susquehanna.

Given the river flows to generate the maximum stage he reviews the nutrient loading, turbidity, and salinity potential changes.  The Nutrient and Turbidity reflect waters coming down the Susquehanna.  For the Salinity, watch as the approaching storm first pushes salt water up the bay while heavy river flows finally flush the bay with fresh water.  Nutrients, turbidity, and salinity have profound impacts on bay ecology.  Our DNR person is concerned about oyster mortality.  The last frame suggests a dramatic response.

Granted this was a worse case scenario.  The DNR person could have played this in multiple scenarios.  Bottom line, provide the user with information to enable them to make decisions that are right for them based on the amount of risk they are willing to accept. The DNR person might got through this process or rely on a private sector firm for assistance.  In any event, NOAA information in combined with other information for knowledgeable decision making.  

## Event Scenario

**Event Scenario**

- Seasonal Precipitation

- Historical Precipitation Event

- Total Precipitation May 2-5 19xx

## Event Scenario

**Event Scenario**

- Seasonal Precipitation

- US Hazard Assessment

- Potomac Stage

- Susquehanna Stage

- Total Precipitation May 2-5 19xx

- Storm Track
- Jun 18-22
- 70% Probability

- Historical Precipitation Event

## Upper Chesapeake Bay Ecology

- Nutrient Loading

- Oyster Mortality

- Salinity

- Turbidity

**-**
**NUTRIENTS**
**+**

**-**
**TURBIDITY**
**+**

**-**
**MORTALITY**
**+**

**-**
**SALINITY**
**+**

## America Needs You to Deliver! 

**Notes:**
Weather, Water and Climate Services in the GOES-R era will provide a safer, stronger, healthier American – world– through trusted, timely and accurate environmental information...