# Presentation: 680554

##  Brian McInerneyHydrologistNational Weather ServiceHydrologic OutlookApril 2005

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Temperature

## March Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal

- 0.1 degrees cooler than average

- March 2005

- 4.6 degrees warmer than average

- March 2004

## Western US Temperature Departure from Normal

- March 2005

- March 2004

## Western US Temperature Departure from Normal

- October, 2004  - March, 2005

## Western US Temperature Departure from Normal

- March 30th – April 5th, 2005

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Precipitation

## Precipitation

## Utah and neighboring statesSeasonal Precipitation 2005 Water Year

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Snowpack

## Bear River SnowpackBasin Average

## Weber Basin SnowpackBasin Average

## Provo River Basin SnowpackBasin Average

## Duchesne River Basin SnowpackBasin Average

## Sevier River Basin SnowpackBasin Average

## Virgin River Basin SnowpackBasin Average

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Water Supply

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes

- Much Above Normal
- Above Normal
- Normal
- Below Normal
- Much Below Normal

- April 1st 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
- Utah Area River Basins

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- April 1st 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Bear River Basin**

- Logan

- 95%

- Bear River

- Bear Lake

- Woodruff

- 119%

- Ut/Wy
- Stateline

- 115%

- Blacksmith Fork

- Hyrum

- 115%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- April 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Weber River Basin**

- Pineview Res.

- 105%

- Gateway

- 128%

- East Canyon Res.

- 106%

- Ogden River

- Lost Creek Res.

- 102%

- Weber River

- Chalk Creek

- 111%

- Oakley

- 122%

- Rockport Res.

- 124%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- April 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Six Creeks River Basin**

- Jordan River

- Little Cottonwood Creek

- 142%

- Big Cottonwood Creek

- 147%

- Mill Creek

- 121%

- Parleys Creek

- 120%

- Dell Fk.

- 121%

- City Creek

- 138%

- Emigration Ck.

- 129%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- April 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Provo River Basin**

- Utah Lake

- Woodland

- 145%

- Jordanelle Res

- 147%

- Deer Creek Res

- 147%

- American Fork

- 175%

- Castilla

- 132%

- 152%

- Provo River

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- April 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Green River Basin**

- Lake Powell Res.

- 107%

- Green River

- 98%

- Price River

- Strawberry Res.

- 144%

- Starvation Res.

- 127%

- Scofield Res.

- 100%

- Colorado River

- Duchesne

- 152%

- Myton

- 183%

- Upper Stillwater

- 159%

- Randlett

- 209%

- Moon Lake

- 154%

- Tabiona

- 124%

- Red Fleet Res.

- 157%

- Flaming Gorge Res.

- 88%

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- April 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Sevier River Basin**

- Hatch

- 300%

- Kingston

- 253%

- 229%

- Cedar City

- 280%

- Sevier River East Fork

- Piute Res.

- 242%

- Minersville

- 229%

- Beaver River

- Beaver

- 185%

- Clear Creek

- Sevier River

- Sevier

- 209%

- Gunnison

- 205%

- Salina Creek

- Ephraim Creek

- Sevier Lake

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- April 1st, 2005
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Virgin River Basin**

- Santa Clara River

- Virgin River North Fork

- Virgin River East Fork

- Pine Valley

- 346%

- Littlefield, AZ

- 351%

- Virgin

- 305%

- Hurricane

- 333%

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Flood Potential

## Increased Flood Potential

- Sevier River Basin

- Virgin River Basin

- South Facing Uinta Mountain Streams

## Hydrologic OutlookRock Creek Snow vs. Rock Creek flow of 1983 Bankfull  at 1780 cfs

- 1983’s flows exceeded the banks of the river

## Hydrologic OutlookCoal Creek Snow vs. Coal Creek flow of 1983 Unofficial Flood Flow at 1500 cfs

- 1983’s flows did not produce flooding along the river

## Hydrologic OutlookSevier at Hatch Snow vs. Sevier at Hatch flow of 1993 Official Flood Flow at 1180 cfs

- 1993’s flows produced river flooding along the Sevier

## Hydrologic OutlookVirgin River Snow vs. Virgin River flow of 1993 Official Flood Flow at 6590 cfs

- 1993’s flows did not exceeded the banks of the river

## Hydrologic OutlookGreat Basin Peak Flow Forecasts

## Hydrologic OutlookUpper Colorado Peak Flow Forecasts

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Short Term Forecast

## Hydrologic OutlookShort Term Forecast

- Temperature through April 15th, 2005
- Much above temperature levels on Thursday
- Below average temperatures through the weekend
- Average temps through early next week
- Precipitation through April 15th, 2005
- Near normal throughout mid-month

- Click for Satellite

## Hydrologic Outlook

- Long Range Forecast

## Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures 

## Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures 

## Spring Climate

- Spring climate will dictate runoff scenario
- Soil moisture is near saturation in the south
- Soil moisture is 2-3 times greater in the north
- This allows a great runoff efficiency
- Cool wet spring will enhance runoff efficiency and heighten flood potential
- Length of melt window is shortened
- More water into streams and reservoirs
- Analogy of a wet sponge
- Warmer drier spring will reduce water volume and lessen flood potential
- Lengthen window of melt
- Earlier melt, means more evaporation, infiltration and sublimation
- Less efficient melt process
- We are running out of time for this scenario

## Forecast UpdatesContact the CBRFC (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center)

- Forecast Services
- Up to the minute forecast updates
- Hourly, daily, and monthly time scales
- Reservoir inflow
- Peak flow forecasts

- _[www.cbrfc.noaa.gov](http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/)_

- Contact
- David Brandon
- Hydrologist in Charge
- 801-524-5130
- Steve Shumate
- Development and Operational Hydrologist
- 801-524-5130

## Contact Information

- Additional Information
- Contact
- Brian McInerney
- Hydrologist
- National Weather Service
- 801-971-2033 c
- brian.mcinerney@noaa.gov