# Presentation: 751964

## Squeezing Moore Wireless!

***Squeezing Moore Wireless!***
***The Future of Wireless in Three Short Chapters***
***22******nd****** Annual Institute ***
***On ***
***Telecommunications***
***Policy and Regulations***
***December 2, 2004***

## Chapter 1: What has worked (Spectrum Policy)!

***The FCC Approach to Licensed Wireless Services***
***A Successful Spectrum Policy Model and Necessary Preconditions***
***Other Upcoming Policy Challenges***
***Chapter 2: Technology and its Implications for Spectrum Policy***
***Creating Extra Communications Capability out of Existing Radio Licenses***
***Thoughts on Spectrum Policy Implications for Redistribution of Efficiency Gains from the Proactive Design Model***
***Chapter 3: Marketplace Implications***

## Chapter 1: What Has Worked!

## TRANSPARENCY   EFFICIENCY  RELIABILITY
Promote the highest and best use of spectrum domestically and internationally in order to encourage the growth and rapid deployment of innovative and efficient wireless communications technologies and services.

Advance spectrum reform by developing and implementing market-oriented allocation and assignment policies.

Vigorously protect against harmful interference and enforce public safety-related rules.

Conduct effective and timely licensing activities that encourage efficient use of the spectrum.

Provide adequate spectrum for public safety and commercial purposes, including rural areas.  

**Promote the **highest and best use of spectrum** domestically and internationally in order to encourage the growth and rapid deployment of **innovative** and **efficient** wireless communications technologies and services.**
**Advance **spectrum reform** by developing and implementing **market-oriented** allocation and assignment policies.**
**Vigorously protect against **harmful interference** and enforce public safety-related rules.**
**Conduct **effective and timely licensing activities** that encourage efficient use of the spectrum.**
**Provide **adequate spectrum** for public safety and commercial purposes, including rural areas.  **

***FCC’s Spectrum “Management” Goals***

## Formula for Successful Spectrum ManagementThe Flexibility Paradigm

**Ensure Competition** (provides for effective use)
- Intermodal/Intramodal competition/Mass Media competition
- LNP, intercarrier compensation, universal service, public interest
- CMRS, PCS, MSS/ATC, MVDDS, DBS versus local, long distance, radio, television, movies, ISPs

**Provide Flexibility** (provides for efficient use)
- Maximum technical and operational autonomy for licensees
- Rapid transition of spectrum to highest and best uses using market forces as much as possible

**Enforce Opportunity Costs of Using Spectrum** (provides market and economic discipline)
- Auctions
- Secondary Markets

## Spectrum “Management” Success StoryCellular/PCS (1993-2004)

- Source: Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association; FCC 9th Annual CMRS Competition Report 2004.

***Spectrum “Management” Success Story******Cellular/PCS (1993-2004)***

## AN ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE OF HOW FLEXIBLE REGULATIONS IMPACT MARKET ADOPTION RATES **

- Subscribers (in millions)

- Spectrum (in MHz)

- 180
- 160
- 140
- 120
- 100
- 80
- 60
- 40
- 20
- 0

- 1984

- 1993

- 2003

***AN ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE OF HOW FLEXIBLE REGULATIONS IMPACT MARKET ADOPTION RATES *****

**CELLULAR/PCS**
**SUBSCRIBERS AT 160 M AT EOY 2003**

**** Not to Scale**

- 180
- 160
- 140
- 120
- 100
- 80
- 60
- 40
- 20
- 0

## Licensed Spectrum & the Flexibility Paradigm

**BRS/EBS Band ****(2.5-2.69 GHz)**
**Flexibility (√)**
**Competition (?)**
**Opportunity Cost (?)**
**70/80/90 GHz**
**Flexibility (√)**
**Competition (?)**
**Opportunity Cost (?)**
**700 MHz CMRS**
**Flexibility (√)**
**Competition (√)**
**Opportunity Cost (√)**

**CMRS ****(Cellular, PCS, ESMR SMR)**
**Flexibility (√)**
**Competition (√)**
**Opportunity Cost (√)**
**3G/AWS**
**Flexibility (√)**
**Competition (√)**
**Opportunity Cost (√)**
**3650 MHz **
**Flexibility (√)**
**Competition (?)**
**Opportunity Cost (?)**

## More attempts at State Regulation of Wireless challenging the détente largely in place since 1994; it is important to understand the reasons why this is happening
Bad customer service and poor understanding of fundamentals of radio combine to create the perceived need to over regulate 
Big Subscriber base makes it attractive to tax in one form or another

Outdated and Inefficient Intercarrier Compensation can slow down wireless development
Most minutes are going wireless so wireline industry has an incentive to slow the migration or find a new revenue model;
The new ICC Policy regime, whatever it is, should be based on platform and technology neutrality principles

- Bad customer service and poor understanding of fundamentals of radio combine to create the perceived need to over regulate
- Big Subscriber base makes it attractive to tax in one form or another
**Outdated and Inefficient Intercarrier Compensation can slow down wireless development**
- Most minutes are going wireless so wireline industry has an incentive to slow the migration or find a new revenue model;
- The new ICC Policy regime, whatever it is, should be based on platform and technology neutrality principles

***Other Upcoming Policy Challenges for Wireless***

## 
Enhancing of Wireless Coverage (in-building)
Balancing real property rights and zoning against the broader consumer and public safety interest in having wireless services wherever consumers live, play, shop and work

E911 Phase 2 becomes a reality with attendant consequences 
accuracy, availability and new Location Based Services that impact issues such as privacy in ways we have never considered

The provisioning of public safety wireless services is a broken model under the new threat matrix and we need to rethink the overall approach....
Rapid deployment
Nationwide availability
Interoperability is not just at the spectrum level but at the Information Services Layers

**Enhancing of Wireless Coverage (in-building)**
- Balancing real property rights and zoning against the broader consumer and public safety interest in having wireless services wherever consumers live, play, shop and work
**E911 Phase 2 becomes a reality with attendant consequences**
- accuracy, availability and new Location Based Services that impact issues such as privacy in ways we have never considered
**The provisioning of public safety wireless services is a broken model under the new threat matrix and we need to rethink the overall approach....**
- Rapid deployment
- Nationwide availability
- Interoperability is not just at the spectrum level but at the Information Services Layers

***Other Upcoming Policy Challenges for Wireless***

## Chapter 2: Technology Impact On  Spectrum and Spectrum Policy

## Technology is Expanding Wireless Boundaries

**Spectrum is not tangible; it is a set of constraints on how to operate using the electro-magnetic radiation.**
**The FCC only controls two of the four constraint quadrants; that of power and bandwidth.**
**The marketplace defines the rest by determining the required throughput and the required bit error rate.**
**New technology allows all four quadrants to be in play at the same time and thereby creating new communications capability where it previously did not exist or was not economical.**

***Technology is Expanding Wireless Boundaries***

## Chips dedicated for Digital Signal Processing (DSP) provides flexibility so spectrum is not a scarce resource (per se)
Dedicated chipsets for DSP only (Intel)
Chipsets available for high order tasks and low order tasks (QCOMM)
Wireless Applications and CPE become plug and play
Wireless Applications become IP-centric and digital
Wireless platforms will support all high use applications available on other platforms

- Dedicated chipsets for DSP only (Intel)
- Chipsets available for high order tasks and low order tasks (QCOMM)
- Wireless Applications and CPE become _**plug**_** **_**and**_** **_**play**_
- Wireless Applications become IP-centric and digital
- Wireless platforms will support all high use applications available on other platforms

***Spectrum Access is Enhanced with Availability of Miniaturized Dedicated Computing Resources for handling DSPs and Application Loads***

## There is a Profound Impact on Wireless System Design

***In the new digital world Quality of Service (“QoS”) trade-offs can take place dynamically because of the increased availability of computing resources...***
*The future is to use software radios techniques to dynamically create where possible valuable extra communications capacity within existing licenses; ****the design**** ****objective is to promote efficiency in Spectrum Utilization, while enabling licensees to offer competitive service in the marketplace***
***...******and the Good News is that the FCC’s Flexibility Policy Regime (discussed earlier) allows this type of design to take place...***

***There is a Profound Impact on Wireless System Design***

## Graphical Representation of the Design Trade-Offs Now Possible

**•** **Trade-offs in parameters define**
**   ****six regions about the design**
**   ****operating point.  **
**•** **Region A:  Achieves enhanced QoS,**
**   ****but would require more power **_**and**_** **
**   ****bandwidth, relative to optimized **
**   ****design.  Presumably, both power**
**   ****and bandwidth are not available. **
**•**** ****Regions B & C: Achieves enhanced**
**   ****QoS and creates extra **
**   ****communications capabilities, if **
**   ****extra power **_**or**_** extra bandwidth is **
**   ****available:**
**    ****-  Region B: Extra power frees up**
**       ****additional bandwidth,**
**    ****-  Region C: Extra bandwidth frees**
**       ****up power or alternatively **
**       ****higher noise level tolerated.**
**•** **Regions D, E, & F: Resulting**
**   ****QoS is worse that Design QoS;**
**   ****but if lower QoS is commercially**
**   ****acceptable, . . . . **

## Technology’s Challenge to Spectrum Policy

- The new designs now possible create more access to spectrum capacity and more intense use of spectrum where the Increased Spectrum Capability can be utilized for improving the existing service or developing new services.
- The FCC’s flexible spectrum technology policies already encourage licensees to invest in expanded software radio designs to meet both a desired QoS and while achieving an increase in communications capacity, where possible.**  **
***The new policy challenge is how to redistribute the resulting efficiency gains from this new design approach;  should it be redistributed by fiat or by some type of marketplace mechanisms (e.g., secondary markets (leasing), private commons, two sided auctions, voluntary exchange mechanisms)***

***Technology’s Challenge to Spectrum Policy***

## Chapter 3: What are the Marketplace Implications?

## SILOS

- voice

- Op. Sys.

**Landline**

- Traditional
- Communications
- World

- Layers

***The Intermodal Fight is over “Wallet Share” and “Brand”***

- ATM

- Copper

**IP over Something**

- Spectrum

- cdma/gsm

- coax

- ATM

- tdma/
- fdma

- Spectrum

***Wireless is Wheaties (consumer) business and all other modes are TOAST***

## Technology is rapidly expanding wireless capacity (more capacity in more places faster)
More spectrum to access
Cheaper to expand than cable, DSL, and Fiber (FTTH or FTTC)
More applications to carry

High subscriber penetration changes fundamental telecom relationship with customers (I carry my cellphone not my cable modem)
Personalized service creates unique relationships and strong brands that lend to the wireless brand being more valuable
Global trend towards wireless having interoperable standards and convergence (unlike landline and cable) creating strong economic scale both in apps and equipment

***More spectrum to access***
***Cheaper to expand than cable, DSL, and Fiber (FTTH or FTTC)***
***More applications to carry***
***High subscriber penetration changes fundamental telecom relationship with customers (I carry my cellphone not my cable modem)***
***Personalized service creates unique relationships and strong brands that lend to the wireless brand being more valuable***
***Global trend towards wireless having interoperable standards and convergence (unlike landline and cable) creating strong economic scale both in apps and equipment***

***Wireless has won the battle for the Customer***

## Invest in binding customers, not platforms
Focus on billing and customer service 
Focus on creating and deploying binding applications that enhance personalization 
Invest in unique, scaleable applications
Avoid OS traps on platforms (the binding problem again so focus on being IP enabled)

***Focus on billing and customer service ***
***Focus on creating and deploying binding applications that enhance personalization ***
***Invest in unique, scaleable applications***
***Avoid OS traps on platforms (the binding problem again so focus on being IP enabled)***

***How can Wireless Keep Winning!***

***Examples in the marketplace today ***
***Simplicity (e.g., flat rate pricing) ***
***Unified Intermodal GUIs (e.g.,“Vodafone LIve”, Microsoft OS, Yahoo Broadband) ***
***Interoperable features across wireless and other IP enabled platforms (e.g., interoperable Instant Messaging and SMS)***
***Personal information management services ***
***Personalized mobile video services (e.g., QComms’ MediaFlo, ESPN MVNO), personal safety applications (e.g., “U-Locate for teens”)***