# Presentation: 671117

## Forecasting Oceanic Cyclones at the NOAA Ocean Prediction CenterJoseph M. Sienkiewicz, D. Scott Prosise, and Anthony CrutchNOAA/NWS/NCEP/Ocean Prediction CenterCamp Springs, MD

## Timeline

- Sanders and Gyakum, 1980 – Defined the meteorological oceanic “BOMB”
- Anthes et al., 1983 – QE-II Storm – “...major improvements...through...improved initial conditions,
- improved horizontal and vertical resolution and changes in the physical
- parameterization of surface fluxes and latent heating.”
- 1986-Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE)
- Sanders, 1986 – “LFM is able to capture essentials of the baroclinic process, and that the amount of response
-  to baroclinic forcing remains intractable.”
- 1988-89 Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA)
- Sanders (1992) – “the state of the art in prediction of marine cyclones has advanced substantially
- over the last 15 years”
- Uccellini et al., 1999 – “...the occurrence and position of intense, fast moving oceanic storms can be
- forecast in the day-4 time range.”

## OPC Graphical Forecast Verification

**48 Hour Surface Forecast ****VT 1200 UTC 18 Mar 2004**

**96 Hour Surface Forecast ****VT 1200 UTC 18 Mar 2004**** **

- Verifying Surface Analysis
- 1200 UTC 18 Mar 2004

- Methodology
_**For all observed cyclones**_
- Compare forecast & analyzed
- 	     Position
- 		Central pressure
- 		             Wind warning category

## OOCL America

**Pacific - Jan 2000**
**350 containers lost overboard **
**217 crushed or bent out of usable condition.**** **

- Vessel lost power for a short period
- and took several severe rolls.

## October 2003 through March 2004

**October 2003 through March 2004**

**P-228**

**A-170**

**A-350**

**P-279**

- - **Sanders, 1988-89**
**(A-Atlantic**
**P-Pacific)**

## Categorical Position Errors

**P48-228**

**A48-170**

**A96-350**

**P96-279**

**P96-284**

**P96-248**

**P96- Uccellini et al**
**1993-94**
**A,P;48,96 – Sanders 88-89**** **

## Categorical MSLP Errors

## Warning Verification (% Correct)

## Warning Verification

## Conclusions

- Remarkable progress in 25 years!!!
- 48 and 96 hour extratropical cyclone forecasts comparable or exceed
- 	10 year average track errors for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
- Track error less for Atlantic than Pacific for all categories of cyclones
- 	Hurricane Force – track error significantly higher than other
- 		categories of strong cyclones for 96 hour forecasts
- Mean pressure errors - tendency to underforecast
- 	highest for extreme storms
- 	error larger for Atlantic than Pacific (96 hours, 965 hPa or less)
- Warnings – Difficulty forecasting intensity of the hurricane force event
- 		tend to _underforecast_ by one warning category
- 			NWP Forecast winds
- 			NWP Pressure errors
- 			Short lived events (24 hours or less)

## Future Work

- Improve day 4 forecasts of Hurricane Force Cyclones
- 		Climatology of extreme events
- 			Reanalysis data, cyclone phase diagrams
- 		Are we missing something?
- 			SST, small scale structure
- Ensembles	- Improve deterministic forecasts
- 		- Develop a suite of ensemble based probabilistic forecasts
- 			Must educate the customer
- Forecasts for 6 to 10 day period