# Presentation: 916203

## Brian McInerney

- Hydrologist

- Water Supply Outlook

- National Weather Service

- February 2009

## Precipitation

## January Precipitation

## Water Year 2009 Precipitation

## Salt Lake City TemperatureJanuary

- 1.8 Degrees above normal

## U.S. Temperature RanksJanuary

## U.S. Temperature RanksNovember - December - January

## SnowCourtesy of NRCS

## Bear River Basin Snow

## Weber River Basin Snow

## Six Creeks River Basin Snow

## Provo River Basin Snow

## Duchesne River Basin Snow

## Green River Basin Snow

## Sevier River Basin Snow

## Virgin River Basin Snow

## Water Supply Forecast

## Forecasted Spring Runoff Volumes

- February, 2009
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
- Utah Area River Basins

**>150%**

**129 – 150%**

**110 – 129%**

**  ****90 – 109%**

**  ****70 –   89%**

**  ****50 –   69%**

**<50%**

**Utah**

**Wyoming**

**Idaho**

**Colorado**

**Arizona**

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st 2009
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Bear River Basin**

**>150%**

**129 – 150%**

**110 – 129%**

**  ****90 – 109%**

**  ****70 –   89%**

**  ****50 –   69%**

**<50%**

- Logan

**83%**

- Bear Lake

- Blacksmith Fork

**85%**

- Ut/Wy
- Stateline

**86%**

- Woodruff

**78%**

## Bear River Basin Conditions

## Great Basin Forecast Evolution

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2009
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Weber River Basin**

**>150%**

**130 – 159%**

**110 – 129%**

**  ****70 –   89%**

**  ****50 –   69%**

**<50%**

**  ****90 – 109%**

- Pineview Res.

**90%**

- Gateway

**90%**

- Chalk Creek

**91%**

- Weber River

- East Canyon Res.

**94%**

- Ogden River

- Lost Creek Res.

**91%**

- Oakley

**90%**

## Weber River Basin Conditions

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2009
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Six Creeks River Basin**

- City Creek

**>150%**

**129 – 150%**

**110 – 129%**

**  ****50 –   69%**

**<50%**

**  ****70 –   89%**

**  ****90 – 109%**

**90%**

- Little Cottonwood Creek

**98%**

- Big Cottonwood Creek

**97%**

- Jordan River

- Mill Creek

**93%**

- Parleys Creek

**89%**

- Emigration Ck.

**87%**

- Dell Fk.

## Six Creeks River Basin Conditions

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2009
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Provo River Basin**

**>150%**

**129 – 150%**

**110 – 129%**

**  ****90 – 109%**

**  ****70 –   89%**

**<50%**

**  ****50 –   69%**

- Utah Lake

- Jordanelle Res

**90%**

- Provo River

- Woodland

**91%**

- American Fork

**94%**

- Spanish Fork

**91%**

- Deer Creek Res

**90%**

## Provo River Basin Conditions

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2009
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Green River Basin**

- Upper Stillwater

- Green River

**89%**

- Scofield Res.

- Lake Powell Res.

**101%**

**78%**

- Starvation Res.

**75%**

**83%**

- Randlett

**58%**

- Myton

- Red Fleet Res.

- Tabiona

**81%**

- Strawberry Res.

**68%**

**76%**

- Flaming Gorge Res.

**76%**

- Moon Lake

**84%**

**>150%**

**129 – 150%**

**110 – 129%**

**  ****90 – 109%**

**  ****50 –   69%**

**<50%**

**  ****70 –   89%**

**85%**

## Green River  Basin Conditions

## Green River Basin Forecast Evolution

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2009
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Sevier River Basin**

**114%**

- Cedar City

- Hatch

**98%**

- Beaver River

**111%**

- Minersville

**102%**

- Kingston

**97%**

- Beaver

- Sevier River

- EF Sevier River

**103%**

- Piute Res.

**96%**

- Gunnison

**85%**

**>150%**

**129 – 150%**

**110 – 129%**

**  ****50 –   69%**

**<50%**

**  ****90 – 109%**

**  ****70 –   89%**

- Kingston

## Sevier River Basin Conditions

## Sevier River Basin Forecast Evolution

## Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume

- February 1st, 2009
- April Through July Volume Forecast
- Percent of 30 Year Average Flows
**Virgin River Basin**

- Santa Clara River

- NF Virgin River

- EF Virgin River

- Pine Valley

- Littlefield, AZ

- Virgin

- Hurricane

**100%**

**98%**

**100%**

**96%**

**>150%**

**129 – 150%**

**110 – 129%**

**  ****70 –   89%**

**  ****50 –   69%**

**  ****90 – 109%**

**<50%**

## Virgin Basin Conditions

## Virgin Basin Forecast Evolution

## Verification

## Forecast Verification

- How it Works
- Example: Logan River near Logan
- February 2008 Forecast:		87% of Average
- 2008 April - July Inflow:		72% of Average
- Difference:			-15%
- Bottom Line:  February 1st forecast was off by 15% of average.  We had forecast 15% more water than the average in the channel from April 1st through the end of July

## Wasatch DrainagesFebruary Forecast Verification

- Wasatch DrainagesFebruary Forecast Verification

- 15% Overforecast

## Green River DrainageFebruary Forecast Verification

## Southwest UtahFebruary Forecast Verification

## Observed

- Forecasted

## Long Term Forecast VerificationLogan Near Logan Forecast Point

- _[http://www.](http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater/?page=verify&id=)__[nwrfc](http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater/?page=verify&id=)__[.](http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater/?page=verify&id=)__[noaa](http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater/?page=verify&id=)__[.](http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater/?page=verify&id=)__[gov/westernwater/](http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater/?page=verify&id=)__[?page=verify&id=](http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater/?page=verify&id=)_

## ENSO Forecast

## Short Term Forecast

## Click on logo for Salt Lake City Forecast

## Contact Information

- Contact Information

- Brian McInerney801.971.2033 cbrian.mcinerney@noaa.gov