# Presentation: 125600

## Session IV – Risk Management & Water Quality: State of the Science

- Animal Feeding Operations (AFOs)
- Science & Technical Support Needs

- Tom Hunt, Director of Research
- University of Wisconsin-Platteville
- Pioneer Farm

**Wednesday, December 8, 2004**

**Notes:**
PALMS uses equations to simulate the physical processes involved in the transport of water, heat, and mass
within the
atmosphere, canopy, and soil
system.
PALMS also considers how tillage type and timing affects the transport of water, heat and mass.  Tillage roughness and direction affects the amount water stored in puddles, the magnitude of infiltration, the amount of runoff, and the depth of ponding.  Tillage also affects crusting of the soil, which in turn affects runoff, infiltration, and ponding.

## Science ?

***Is an open-ended (and open-minded) process!***

***Embraces healthy skepticism!***

***Always favors the null hypothesis!***

***Never politicized!***

**Notes:**
PALMS uses equations to simulate the physical processes involved in the transport of water, heat, and mass
within the
atmosphere, canopy, and soil
system.
PALMS also considers how tillage type and timing affects the transport of water, heat and mass.  Tillage roughness and direction affects the amount water stored in puddles, the magnitude of infiltration, the amount of runoff, and the depth of ponding.  Tillage also affects crusting of the soil, which in turn affects runoff, infiltration, and ponding.

## What is Risk?

***Risk exists if there is something you don’t want to happen – having a chance to happen!!!***

***The ***_***probability***_*** that some ***_***event***_*** will cause an ***_***undesirable outcome***_*** to surface water and/or groundwater quality***

- Bernhardt, 2002

**Notes:**
PALMS uses equations to simulate the physical processes involved in the transport of water, heat, and mass
within the
atmosphere, canopy, and soil
system.
PALMS also considers how tillage type and timing affects the transport of water, heat and mass.  Tillage roughness and direction affects the amount water stored in puddles, the magnitude of infiltration, the amount of runoff, and the depth of ponding.  Tillage also affects crusting of the soil, which in turn affects runoff, infiltration, and ponding.

## Components of Risk

- Vulnerable Location

- Bernhardt, 2002

## Assuring An Outcome

***The Points of Vulnerability***
***All The Potential Outcomes***
***The Probability of Occurrence***
***Cost of an Undesirable Outcome***
***Tolerance***
***Behavior and Values***

***Assuring An Outcome***

- by knowing, understanding, and communicating

- Bernhardt, 2002

**Notes:**
PALMS uses equations to simulate the physical processes involved in the transport of water, heat, and mass
within the
atmosphere, canopy, and soil
system.
PALMS also considers how tillage type and timing affects the transport of water, heat and mass.  Tillage roughness and direction affects the amount water stored in puddles, the magnitude of infiltration, the amount of runoff, and the depth of ponding.  Tillage also affects crusting of the soil, which in turn affects runoff, infiltration, and ponding.

## Knowledge

***Knowledge***
***Tools***
***Actions***
***Communication***

**Notes:**
PALMS uses equations to simulate the physical processes involved in the transport of water, heat, and mass
within the
atmosphere, canopy, and soil
system.
PALMS also considers how tillage type and timing affects the transport of water, heat and mass.  Tillage roughness and direction affects the amount water stored in puddles, the magnitude of infiltration, the amount of runoff, and the depth of ponding.  Tillage also affects crusting of the soil, which in turn affects runoff, infiltration, and ponding.

## Risk Management Communication

- Enables effective policy implementation
- Reduces liability
- Reduces hostility
- Maintains management flexibility
- Reduces costs
- Focuses resources appropriately
- Proactive

- Trudell, 1997

## Prioritizing Which Risks to Address First

**Probability of Happening**

**Potential Impact**

***Act if cost effective***

***No action required***

***Immediate action***

***Action required***

## Potential Environmental Degradation

- Nowak, 2003

- Log Normal Distribution

- High Vulnerability
- Bad Behavior

- Low Vulnerability
- Good Behavior

## Risk Management Tools

- Imperfect predictors of ag impacts
- Models for variable scale & seasonality
- Models for utilization & efficacy
- Models for prevention & remediation
- Research increases accuracy, applicability, and practicality
- Monitor, calibrate, validate, & evaluate
- Adapt

## Wisconsin Experience: WBI Agricultural Activity

- Spatial
- Scale

- Identify targeted
- watersheds/sub-watersheds
- (In Progress)

- Run SNAP+/Rusle2/P-Index on all
- agricultural fields in targeted
- watersheds/sub-watersheds.  Rank
- exceedance of P/sediment thresholds
- (can be done with routine data)

- Evaluate management options with
- SNAP+/Rusle2/P-Index
- (can be done with routine data)

- Specification/installation of buffers
- (requires site-specific data)

**State-wide**

**Watershed**

**Farm**

**Farm field**

**Sub-field**

- PALMS/Field-monitoring
- used for calibration of
- SNAP+/Rusle2/P-Index

- Setting P/sediment
- thresholds, science-based
- (“T” not relevant here)

- Research

- Evaluate DEM spec’s
- & costs vs field visit &
- traditional engineering
- design

- 1

- 3

- 4

- 5

- 2

- *

- Nowak, 2004

## Stream Health Model

- Nutrient/Sediment Model

- Lake Water Quality Model

- Low score = 10 (no ES, little
- Diversity)

- High score = 90 (Higgins eye
- Mussel’s last hide-out)

- Scoring: 1 factor
- (linear scale)

*Med.*

*High*

*Low*

*Med.*

- low

- low

- high

- high

- X

- Y

**X **= ***nutrient loading*** (based on land use,
- soils, topography)
**Y** = likelihood of ***buffer effectiveness***
- (based on stream and landscape
- morphology)

- Scoring: 2 factors

- Scoring: 3 factors

*L*

*MH*

*H*

*ML*

- low

- low

- high

- high

- Y

- X

**X** = existing ***lake water quality***
- (low = eutrophic, high = oligotrophic)
**Y** = ***stream nutrient loading to lake***
- (low = insignificant, high = significant)
**Z **= ***sensitivity to pollutants**** *(based on
- water chemistry and flushing rate)

- low

- high

- Z

*ML*

*MH*

*MH*

- = 10 (forest along a flat river)

- = 90 (row crops
- In headwaters)

- = 10 (a stinkin’ carp-filled runoff pond)

- = 90 (that secret
- stream-fed
- walleye hole)

- Nowak, 2004

## Implementation

- WBI Adaptive Management
- requires on-going data collection and
- data interpretation to update methods for
- predicting P/sediment loss (funding?)

- WBI Agricultural Adaptive Management Activity

- Data collection options for P,
- sediment & farming practices

- Options for Interpretation of
- collected data to improve SNAP+

- Pioneer Farm
- Discovery Farms
- Arlington and other
-   University farms
- Private targets of
-   opportunity
- Expand stream monitoring
-   & choose a few streams well
-   suited to quantifying effects
-   of farm management
-   improvements

- Reproduce typical farm
-   management practices at
-   data collection sites
- Continue field studies of buffer
-   design, installation &
-   effectiveness
- Generalize results from data
-   collection sites with process
-   model like PALMS to update
-   SNAP+/RUSLE2/P-Index
- Interpret stream monitoring
-   data and consistency with
-   SNAP+/RUSLE2/P-Index
- Periodically revisit science-
-   based P and sediment
-   thresholds for action

- BIG QUESTION:
-   How will regulations be
-   modified to reflect
-   improvements from
-   adaptive management?

- Nowak, 2004

## N-CyCLE: Nutrient-Cycling Crops Livestock Environment

- M. A. Wattiaux, University of Wisconsin-Madison

## Wisconsin Experience

- Phosphorus is building up on the landscape

**Notes:**
PALMS uses equations to simulate the physical processes involved in the transport of water, heat, and mass
within the
atmosphere, canopy, and soil
system.
PALMS also considers how tillage type and timing affects the transport of water, heat and mass.  Tillage roughness and direction affects the amount water stored in puddles, the magnitude of infiltration, the amount of runoff, and the depth of ponding.  Tillage also affects crusting of the soil, which in turn affects runoff, infiltration, and ponding.

##     > 50 ppm – limit P applications to crop removal

- For planning manure applications:
- 1. Use soil test P thresholds –
-     > 50 ppm – limit P applications to crop removal
-     > 100 ppm – eliminate P applications if possible
- Or ..
- 2. Use the Wisconsin P Index

- The P Index calculates a gross estimate of total annual P delivery from a given field to the nearest surface water to allow assessment of the relative risk of P contamination from that field.

**Notes:**
PALMS uses equations to simulate the physical processes involved in the transport of water, heat, and mass
within the
atmosphere, canopy, and soil
system.
PALMS also considers how tillage type and timing affects the transport of water, heat and mass.  Tillage roughness and direction affects the amount water stored in puddles, the magnitude of infiltration, the amount of runoff, and the depth of ponding.  Tillage also affects crusting of the soil, which in turn affects runoff, infiltration, and ponding.

## Framework Equation

-   P Delivery to Stream
-  (P Index)

- Annual edge-of-field runoff losses
- (Annual sediment-bound P +
- Annual dissolved P +
- Losses from surface manure/fertilizer
- P applications)

- Total P Delivery Ratio

**x**

**=**

**Stream**

- WardGood, 2004

## SNAP-Plus

- 25 tons per acre dairy manure applied in fall (04) , winter (05) or spring (06)

- 2007: alfalfa/brome
- 2008: alfalfa/brome

**SNAP-Plus**

- Check the P Index website:http://wpindex.soils.wisc.edu

## Wisconsin Experience

- Combine models of vertical transport in soil and canopy with overland flow models

- Precision Agricultural-Landscape Modeling System, PALMS (Molling *et al*., 2003)

- PALMS:

- Norman, 2004

## Biophysical Processes Simulated in PALMS With IBIS

**Biophysical Processes Simulated in PALMS With IBIS**

- ©CCMolling, 2002

**Notes:**
PALMS uses equations to simulate the physical processes involved in the transport of water, heat, and mass
within the
atmosphere, canopy, and soil
system.
PALMS also considers how tillage type and timing affects the transport of water, heat and mass.  Tillage roughness and direction affects the amount water stored in puddles, the magnitude of infiltration, the amount of runoff, and the depth of ponding.  Tillage also affects crusting of the soil, which in turn affects runoff, infiltration, and ponding.

## Distributed Runoff  (Routing) Model

***Distributed Runoff  (Routing) Model***

**Diffusive Wave Model**

**Schematic for Water Balance at Raster (i,j)**

**q(1)**
**(i-1,j)**

**q(2)**
**(i,j+1)**

**q(3)**
**(i+1,j)**

**q(4)**
**(i,j-1)**

**Ppt**

**• ****Surface Routing**
**• ****Tillage Effects**
**• ****Row Direction effects on Surface Roughness**
**• ****Surface Sealing**
**• ****Run-on and Closed Depressions**

- Norman, 2004

## 
Physical equations describing water flow   and sediment generation:

Detachment/deposition: Water Erosion Prediction Project, WEPP (Nearing et al., 1989)

Numerical methods in a two dimensional grid

- Physical equations describing water flow   and sediment generation:
- Detachment/deposition: Water Erosion Prediction Project, WEPP (Nearing *et al., *1989)
- Numerical methods in a two dimensional grid

- Grid Erosion Model Subroutine (GEMS)

- Photo courtesy of USDA NRCS.

## Application to Bragger Farm (WI)

- 2.7 ha (6.8 acre)
- 14% slope
- Silt loam
- 90 mm (3.5 in)

- Norman, 2004

## (m3)

- (m3)

- >

- 400 m3

- Outflow from field occurs primarily in concentrated flow

- 50 m3

- Norman, 2004

## Rill width is wider where more water flows and bluewould be gullies for this 90 mm rain event on bare soil

- (Rill Width)

- STREAM

- Where would
- You put the
- BUFFER?

- Road

- Norman, 2004

## Farm B North Basin

_**Farm B North Basin**_

## Wisconsin Experience: Pioneer Farm

- Wisconsin Experience: Pioneer Farm

- 5 miles south of Platteville, WI.
- Located in MLRA 105 – Northern Mississippi Loess Hills

## Pioneer Farm Soil Tests1968-2003

## Runoff & Stream Sampling Sites on DEM (1ft CI)

**Runoff & Stream Sampling Sites on DEM (1ft CI)**

-  stream

-  1

-  2

-  3

-  6

- 5
- 

-  4

-  8

-  7

- Typical Pioneer Farm Monitoring Station

- Raingage
- Solar Panel
- Gaging station
- Shaft-encoder stage sensor
- Plywood wingwall

- H-Flume - flow measurement

## Sediment Load vs. Total P Load

## Effect of Cropping System on Total P Load

## Snowmelt: Total and Dissolved P

## Impact of Winter Manure Applications

- 2004 Winter Runoff –3 events

- Received winter manure

## Calibrating the P Index: Why use Pioneer Farm?

- PI has been determined for all fields
- Single-crop subwatersheds provide ideal conditions for measuring edge-of-field losses
- Have flexibility in management to test assumptions of the PI

## Results of PI and Annual Loads 

- **** Provisional Data ****

- channelized flow & gully erosion

## Is the PI a better predictor of runoff losses than Soil Test P?

- *** Provisional data and Site 2 – 2004 removed

- Baxter, 2004

## Ongoing Research on the relationship between STP and runoff P losses

- Watershed Scale

- Small Plot Scale

- Simulated Runoff

- Natural Runoff

## Evaluating Acute Losses

- Fall / Winter 2004-2005: Applications of solid and liquid dairy manure

- Beef lot runoff

## What is the state of the science?Are we making a difference?