# Presentation: 382941

## MARS HUMAN PRECURSOR SCIENCE/EXPLORATION STEERING GROUP (MHP-SSG)INTRODUCTION David Beaty, Noel HinnersFeb. 17, 2005

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## MHP SSG Introduction  The context

*MHP SSG Introduction * The context

***This analysis***

***The full  job***

- A full program of preparing for a human mission to Mars needs to consider the following components:
- Flight missions to Mars
- Measurements of the martian environment.
- Tech. Demos/Infrastructure Emplacement
- Missions to the Moon
- Laboratory, Field, and Flight test program on Earth
- Flight missions to Earth orbit

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**Notes:**
Goal 1 -- Life: Determine if life ever arose on Mars
Determine if life exists today
Determine if life existed on Mars in the past
Assess the extent of prebiotic organic chemical evolution on Mars
Goal 2 -- Climate
Characterize Mars’ present climate and climate processes
Characterize Mars’ ancient climate and climate processes
Goal 3 -- Geology
Determine the geological processes that have resulted in formation of the Martian crust and surface
Characterize the structure, dynamics, and history of Mars interior
Goal 4 -- Prepare for human exploration
Acquire Martian environmental data set (such as radiation)
Conduct in-situ engineering/science demonstration
Establish infrastructure for future missions

## MHP SSG Introduction  Why do Precursor Missions?

_***Reduce Risk***_
- Uncertain knowledge of Mars—requires higher design margins than necessary
- Demonstrate flight technology—flight-tested systems are less risky.
_***Reduce Cost***_
- Identify the cost drivers, find lower-cost alternatives
_***Increase Performance***_
- From a starting point of minimum acceptable performance, are there ways performance can be increased at acceptable cost?

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**Notes:**
Goal 1 -- Life: Determine if life ever arose on Mars
Determine if life exists today
Determine if life existed on Mars in the past
Assess the extent of prebiotic organic chemical evolution on Mars
Goal 2 -- Climate
Characterize Mars’ present climate and climate processes
Characterize Mars’ ancient climate and climate processes
Goal 3 -- Geology
Determine the geological processes that have resulted in formation of the Martian crust and surface
Characterize the structure, dynamics, and history of Mars interior
Goal 4 -- Prepare for human exploration
Acquire Martian environmental data set (such as radiation)
Conduct in-situ engineering/science demonstration
Establish infrastructure for future missions

## MHP SSG Introduction Organization of the Study

- 2030 Science Focus Team
*Leaders = Bishop, Heldmann*

*MHP SSG Introduction *Organization of the Study

***OVERALL LEADERS:******  Beaty, Hinners***

***MEASUREMENTS***

- Radiation Haz. Team
*Leader = Zeitlin*

- Dust/Soil/ Toxicity/ Focus Team
*Leader = Wagner*

- Biohazard/ PP Focus Team
*Leader = Allen*

- Atmosphere/ Weather Focus Team
*Leader = Farrell*

- Terrain Focus Team
*Leader = Eppler*

***TECHNOLOGY/ INFRASTRUCTURE***

- Transit Team
*Leader = Joosten*

- Mars Atmosphere Flight Team
*Leader = Powell*

- Surface Operations Team
*Leader = Kohlhasse*

***HUMAN ACTIVITY AT MARS***

***INPUTS TO ADVANCE MISSION PLANNING, (Frank Jordan)***

*Hinners, Braun*

*Beaty, Snook*

*Beaty*

- Water Resources Focus Team
*Leader = XXX*

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## MHP SSG Introduction Engaging the Community

- n = 100
- Intellectual Diversity
- Organizational Diversity
- Geographic Diversity

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## MHP SSG Introduction Assumptions for this Study

- goes to the martian surface
- at least one EVA
- The series of robotic precursor missions will be designed to reduce risk/cost in the _first_ human mission.  For the purpose of this analysis the human program beyond the first mission is undefined.
- Assume the long-stay and short-stay martian missions are BOTH under active consideration.
- First dedicated robotic precursor mission in 2011.

*MHP SSG Introduction *Assumptions for this Study

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## MHP SSG Introduction This Session

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## MEASUREMENT SUB-TEAMINTRODUCTION David Beaty, Kelly Snook 

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## Measurement Team Introduction Risk Analysis

*Measurement Team Introduction *Risk Analysis

- Risk analysis process guided by professional risk analysis team (SAIC).
- Using expert focus teams, probability and consequence of risks that can be reduced by precursor measurement assessed.
_*Risk Prioritization Criteria*_
_**Magnitude of effect**_ of precursor information on reduction of risk and/or cost of a human mission to Mars.
- Perceived degree of viability and cost of available _**engineering solutions**_
- Potential to obtain minimum necessary information in a _**less expensive way**_ than by flying a mission to Mars.

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## Measurement Team Introduction Risk Analysis 

- All of the risks to the first human mission will need to be dealt with in one of the following ways:
_**Accept the risk**_
_**Mitigate the risk**_ by means of engineering solutions
_**Buy down the risk**_ by means purchasing advance information
- reduce uncertainty (so we don’t engineer to the upper limit)
- Establish new (lower-cost) engineering solutions

*It is not MHP SSG’s job to decide what risks are unacceptable.  Our job is to place them in priority order to support future decision-making.*

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## Measurement Team Introduction Recommended Revision to Goal IVa

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## TEAM DUSTINTRODUCTION  Sandy Wagner, Team Leader 

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## Team Dust Risks

_**Risk 6A:**_**  Failure Due to Abrasion and Accumulation**
_**Risk 6B:**_**  Failure of Electrical Systems**
_**Risk 6C:**_**  System Failure Due to Corrosive Effects of Dust**
_**Risk 7:**_**  If the crew inhales or ingests dust adverse health effects may result.**

**Apollo 12 – Alan Bean’s Spacesuit**

- After

- Before

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*Team Dust*Investigations and Measurements

_***Investigation 1A.***_** **
**Characterize the particulates that could be transported to mission surfaces through the air (including both natural aeolian dust and particulates that could be raised from the martian regolith by ground operations), and that could affect hardware’s engineering properties.  **
**Analytic fidelity sufficient to establish credible engineering simulation labs and/or performance prediction/design codes on Earth is required.**

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## Team DustInvestigations and Measurements

- _Measurements_
- Complete analysis
- Shape and size distribution
- Mineralogy
- Electrical and thermal conductivity
- Triboelectric and photoemission properties
- Chemistry
- Polarity and magnitude of charge
- individual dust particles suspended in atmosphere
- concentration of free atmospheric ions with positive and negative polarities.
- The same measurements as in a) on a sample of air-borne dust collected during a major dust storm.
- d. 	Subsets of the complete analysis described in a), and measured at different locations on Mars.

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*Team Dust*** **Investigations and Measurements

_***Investigation #2.***_
**Determine the possible toxic effects of martian dust on humans. **** **

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## Team Dust Investigations and Measurements

- _Measurements:_
- For at least one site, assay for chemicals with known toxic effect on humans.
- Fully characterize:
- soluble ion distributions
- reactions that occur upon humidification
- released volatiles
- Analyze the shapes of martian dust grains
- Determine if martian regolith elicits a toxic response in an animal species which is a surrogate for humans.

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## Team DustRisk Mapping

- Risk 6A

- Risk 6B

- Risk 6C

- Risk 7

- Measurement 1A.a

- Measurement 1A.b

- Measurement 1A.c

- Measurement 1A.d

- Measurement 2A

- Measurement 2B

- Measurement 2C

- Measurement 2D

_**Risk**_

_**Measurements**_

_**Risk**_
_**Exposure**_

***For System Reliability***

***For Electrical Shock Reduction***

***For More Confidence***
***in Measurements***

***For Human***
***Exposure***
***Requirements***

***Less value than 1A.a***

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## TEAM ATMOSPHEREINTRODUCTION  Bill Farrell, Team Leader 

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## Team AtmosphereRisks

_**Risk #4:**_** **Wind shear and turbulence will create unexpected and uncompensatable trajectory anomalies affecting EDL and TAO.
_**Risk #8:**_** **Dust storm electrification may cause arcing, and force human explorers to seek shelter during storms and affect TAO.
_**Risk #10:**_** **During crew occupation and EVA, dust storm may affect visibility to the point where EVA’s for regular habitat maintenance becomes compromised.
_**Risk #15:**_** **Photochemical and chemical reactions in the atmosphere have the potential to corrode equipment and/or create a toxic environment for humans.

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## Team AtmosphereInvestigations and Measurements

*Team Atmosphere*Investigations and Measurements

_**Investigation #1B.**_**  Determine the fluid variations from ground to >90 km that affect EDL and TAO including both fair-weather and dust storms.**

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## Team AtmosphereInvestigations and Measurements

_**Measurements**_**  **
- Measure v, P/ ,  and T in the atmosphere **during EDL** with as many profiles/locations as possible.  Quantify turbulent layers.
- Monitor **surface/near-surface**  v, P/ , and T, as a function of time, as many locations as possible.
- Make **long-term observations** of the weather from orbit (aeolian cloud frequency size  and occurrence, temperature & density profiles, winds as a function of altitude, with profiles obtained globally).
- During human EDL and TAO, pre-deploy ascent/descent probes to obtain P, V, and T along assumed trajectory.
*Measurements needed globally with special emphasis on 0-20 km to quantify boundary layer turbulence and 30-60 km where vehicle dynamic pressures are large*

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## Team Atmosphere Example: BL Atmosphere Dynamics

- Models indicate that boundary layer very dynamic and unstable in afternoon via solar heated surface
- MER Mini-TES  obtained atmospheric temperature vs height profiles via radiative transfer inversion model
- Observed a super-adiabatic layer in the afternoon resulting in turbulent motion
- High time resolution shows the passage of thermal plumbs  extending to high altitudes over MER... temperature changes on order of 5oC.
- What are the winds during unstable period? Don’t know because a surface MET package was not included
- Some of the plumbs may even be hot-cored vortices [Ryan and Lucich, 1983] with substantial wind shifts

*Smith et al, 2004 Multi-sol composite*

- Temperature profile vs Local Time

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## Team AtmosphereInvestigations and Measurements

_**Measurements**_
- Derive the basic measurements of atmospheric electricity that affects TAO and human occupation.
- DC E-fields (electrostatic fields), AC E-fields (RF from discharges & RF contamination assessment), atmospheric conductivity probe,  surface conductivity probe, and grain radius and charge
- Combine with surface MET package to correlate electric and its causative meteorological source over a Martian year, both in dust devils and large dust storms.
*Measurements needed on at least one landed mission.*

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## Team Atmosphere Example: Melnik and Parrot [1998]

- Simulated Martian dust cloud dynamics
- Charged grains via contact electrification
- Allowed large and small grains to separate via gravitational filtration
- Used Poisson solver to monitor ES fields
- Found inter-cloud potential differences of 300 kV over 100 m dust devil and E-field values near local breakdown levels
- Rocket launch could cause a discharge from cloud top-to-bottom
- Parallel to KSC field mill system

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## Team AtmosphereInvestigations and Measurements

_**Measurements**_
- Determine the  meteorological properties of dust storms at ground level that affect human occupation and EVA.
- P (or ), V, T, and dust density (opacity) as a function of time at the surface, for at least a Martian year, to obtain an understanding of the possible MET hazards inside dust storms. Dust particle properties should be quantified (see Soil/Dust FT).
- Orbiting weather station: optical and IR measurements to monitor the dust storm frequency, size and  occurrence over a year, & measure terrain roughness and thermal inertia. Obtain temperature & density profiles, winds as a function of altitude, with profiles obtained globally.

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## TEAM BIOHAZARDINTRODUCTION  Carl Allen, Team Leader 

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## Team BiohazardRisks

_**Risk #5:**_** **Martian life transported to Earth
- 	Hazards  to  Earth’s  biota  and  ecosystems
_**Risk #9:**_** **Terrestrial life transported to Mars
- 	Local / widespread  contamination
- 	False positive indication of life on Mars
- 	Hybridization with Martian life
_**Risk #11:**_** **Martian life released in surface habitat
- 	Health hazard to crew
- 	Potential for mixing ecologies
- 	Interference with biological life support systems

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## Team BiohazardInvestigations – High  Risk

*Team Biohazard*Investigations – High  Risk

_**Investigation #1C.**_** ****Determine  if  each  Martian  site  to  be  visited  by  humans  is  free,  to  within  acceptable  risk  standards,  of  replicating  biohazards  which  may  have  adverse  effects  on  humans  and  other  terrestrial  species.   **
**Sampling  into  the  subsurface  for  this  investigation  must  extend  to  the  maximum  depth  to  which  the  human  mission  may  come  into  contact  with  uncontained  Martian  material.**

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## Team BiohazardMeasurements

_**Phase 1.  Is life ‘everywhere’?**_
- Return  and  analyze  samples  in  terrestrial  laboratories.
- Test  for  evidence  of  Martian  life  in  representative  samples  of  the  atmosphere, dust, near-surface  soil, deep  soil, rock  and  ice
- Fully characterize  Martian  life  (if  found)
- Test  for  biohazards
_**Phase 2.  Landing site screening**_
- At  the  site  of  the  planned  first  human  landing,  conduct  biologic  assays  using  in-situ  methods.
- At  the  site  of  the  planned  first  human landing,  conduct  biologic  assays  using  in-situ  methods
- Measurements  and  instruments  specific  to  Martian  life  found  by  previous  investigations

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## Team BiohazardInvestigations – High  Risk

*Team Biohazard*Investigations – High  Risk

_**Measurements**_
- Survival and reproduction under Martian conditions
- Destruction or organics at the Martian surface
- Mechanisms  / rates  of  aeolian  processes  which  disburse  contaminants
- Mechanisms  of  contaminant transport  into  the  Martian  subsurface
- Adhesion  characteristics  of  contaminants  on  landed  mission  elements

_**Investigation #4**_**.  Determine the processes by which terrestrial microbial life, or its remains, is dispersed and/or destroyed on Mars, the rates and scale of these processes, and the potential impact on future scientific investigations. **

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## Team Biohazard Measurements

_**Simulated  Mars  Environments**_
- Test  for  survival  and  genetic  adaptation  of  terrestrial  life  under  Martian  conditions
- Assess  rates, scales  and  methods  of  contamination  dispersal  under  Martian  conditions

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## TEAM RADIATIONINTRODUCTION  Cary Zeitlin, Team Leader 

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## Team RadiationParticles and Risks

- Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs)
- Continuous
- Low dose-rate
- Predictable
- Same at Earth and Mars
- Risk is to long-term health, “late effects,” principally cancer.
- Cannot be stopped by practical depths of shielding
- Not stopped by Martian atmosphere
- Include heavy ions which may be important biologically.

- Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs)
- Sporadic
- Sometimes v. high dose-rates
- Not predictable at present
- Not same at Earth and Mars
- Can present risk of immediate and severe illness, even death.
- Can be stopped by practical depths of shielding*
- Stopped by Martian atmosphere*
- Very rare events produce highly energetic heavy ions.

- * True in the vast majority of cases but not 100%

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## Team RadiationRadiation Hazard Summary

- _GCR Dose for two scenarios with NO shielding_
- Note LEO career limits: 0.5 to 4.0 Sv depending on age & gender.
- 6 month transit each way  0.6 – 1.1 Sv total
- 30-day surface stay: .02 – .05 Sv total  < 10% of total.
- 500-day surface stay: 0.3 – 0.8 Sv total
- 0.3 – 0.8 Sv could be significant depending on definition of career limits
- Shielding of habitats on surface may help considerably
- A KEY CONCLUSION:  The GCR radiation risk for the entire mission is significant, but the contribution from the time on Mars is small for a short-stay scenario.
- _SEP considerations on Martian surface_
- Atmosphere provides significant shielding against primaries.
- Large fluxes of secondary neutrons are possible, give dose comparable to several months of exposure to GCR.

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## Team RadiationRisks

_**Risk #13:**_** **Risk of chronic radiation exposure exceeding career limits.
- _Mitigations:_
- Precise knowledge of GCR flux and an accurate transport model.
- Relax “acceptable” standard with informed consent.
_**Risk #14:**_** **Risk of acute radiation exposure: Inadequate shielding against a severe solar event - crew members on surface EVAs especially at risk.
- _Mitigations: _
- Early warning system.
- Accurate modeling of transport of solar energetic particles through atmosphere.
- In vast majority of cases, shielding from Martian atmosphere is enough.

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## Team RadiationInvestigations, and Measurements

- Like “Safe on Mars”, we recommend measurements needed to validate radiation transport models.
- Measure ionizing radiation on Martian surface:
- Distinguish contributions from charged particles vs. neutrons, with coarse directionality (up vs. down vs. sideways).
- Neutron fluxes will vary with location.
- Difficult to measure low-energy neutrons if an RTG is used.
- Simultaneously, make orbital measurements of the charged particle flux at the top of the atmosphere to test transport models for SEPs and secondaries.
*Measurements needed once (preferably twice) and over length of time sufficient to see multiple solar particle events.*

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## Team RadiationWhy has the priority been reduced?

- Radiation risk for entire mission remains significant.
- Very rare high-flux “hard spectrum” solar event is potentially dangerous and mitigation may not be possible.
- For long-cruise, short-stay mission, dose equivalent received on surface is a small part of the total (< 10%).
- Accuracy of risk assessment is incrementally advanced by measurements on the surface.
- State of knowledge of particle fluxes & transport is relatively good, with some minor weaknesses.
- Improved knowledge likely to have little effect on risk mitigation strategies.

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## RECOMMENDED REVISIONS TO MEPAG’S GOAL IVa 

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## Measurement Team Summary Recommended Revision to Goal IVa

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## Possible Follow-up Studies

- Optimal configuration for human aeroassist landing vehicle
- ISRU Trade Space
- Systems-level landing site constraints (other than ISRU)
- Science priorities for the first human mission

***The MHP SSG sees a need/opportunity for further studies in the following areas:***

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## Backup Slides Appendices

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## MHP SSG Introduction MHP SSG Timeline

***MEAS. TEAM***

***T/I TEAM***

***ADV. STUDIES***

- June 25

- July

*MEPAG meeting*

- Aug.

- Sept.

- Oct.

**Aug. 3-4**

- Nov.

- Dec.

*MEPAG Meeting*

**July 2**

- July 7

*Focus Teams*

*Deliver Interim results*

- Sep. 3

*Study Teams*

*analysis*

- Oct. 1

- Jan.

- Feb.

*Scoping*

*Scoping*

- Dec. 1

*Workshop*

*Documentation, refinement*

*Synthesis*

**Sep. 14-16**

*Workshops*

*2004*

*2005*

**Feb. 16-17**

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## Measurement Team Introduction Define Investigations, Measurements

- For all Measurements:
- Required precision and detection limit
- How many places or times?
- Sequential relationships

*Measurement Team Introduction *Define Investigations, Measurements

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## Definitions

**Risk** - The combination of 1) the _probability_ (qualitative or quantitative) and associated uncertainty that a program or project will experience an undesired event; and 2) the _consequences_, impact, severity and/or associated uncertainty of the undesired event were it to occur.
**Opportunity** - A state or condition that could potentially lead to desirable consequences.
**Condition: **The key circumstances, situations, etc., that are causing concern, doubt, anxiety, or uncertainty. In a risk statement, the condition phrase is the phrase at the beginning of the statement.
**Consequence:** The possible negative out comes of the current conditions that are creating uncertainty. In a risk statement, the consequence phrase is the phrase at the end of the statement.
**Context:** Context provides additional detail regarding the events, circumstances, and interrelationships within the project that may affect the risk. This description is more detailed than can be captured in the basic statement of risk.
**Impact:** The loss or effect on the project if the risk occurs. Impact is one of the three attributes of a risk. A risk that does not impact an objective is not particularly important to a project manager. A risk that can affect the objective should be assessed and, if possible, it's impact quantified. Qualitative judgments such as low, moderate and high-risk impacts are useful in some cases. The impact is traditionally described in two dimensions, it's likelihood of occurring and the impact on an objective should it occur.

**Definitions**

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