# Presentation: 145441

## NASA Kennedy Space CenterSpace Transportation Operations Research and AnalysisCapabilities and ApproachesJune 2002Edgar ZapataNASA, Kennedy Space CenterFL 32899Systems Engineering OfficeMailcode: YA-D4-A(321) 867-6234

**NASA Kennedy Space Center****Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis****Capabilities and Approaches****June 2002****Edgar Zapata****NASA, Kennedy Space Center****FL 32899****Systems Engineering Office****Mailcode: YA-D4-A****(321) 867-6234**

- _[http://](http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/rlvhp.htm)__[science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/rlvhp.htm](http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/rlvhp.htm)_

## Outline

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Tools**
**Analysis Capabilities Available and in Use**
**AATe**
**AATe Software Usability Upgrade**
**Vision Spaceport**
**Design Environments – ModelCenter**
**AATe**
**VSP Wrap into ModelCenter**
**Design Environments – AFRL and Adaptive Modeling Language (AML/Technosoft).**
**GEM-FLO**
**Research - Capabilities in Development**
**Simulation Tools – Dynacs & Productivity Apex Inc. “GEM-FLO” (Dr. Steele)**
**Simulation Toolkits - “TEAMS” (Glenn Rhodeside) (SBIR ph.1)**
**Activity Based Costing by University of Texas, El Paso and CCT Corp, (STTR ph.1)**
**Higher Fidelity Operations Turnaround Time Estimation Capability (OPSTAT)**
**Knowledge Capture and Reasoning – Discovery Machines Corp. “TMK” Methods (Jessica Mock) (SBIR ph.1)**
**Summary**

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Outline**

## The focus of space transportation operations research and analysis as outlined in this briefing is to:

- Provide meaningful insight for decision makers, designers, technologists and other analysts within the process of defining future space transportation systems.
- Provide insight at the earliest possible conceptual phases of design and decision making.
- Provide operations insight into the direction of space transportation systems investments for both flight and ground systems.
- Improve the vehicles, the Spaceports, and the systems of systems required to make space transportation routine and affordable within our lifetimes.

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**

## Tools enable:

- More rapid analysis.
- More traceable answers.
- More easily understood answers.
- More standard and equal processes over time.

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Tools**

## Analysis Capabilities Available and In Use

- Required for operations to be active in a design process:
- Description of the concept
- Decisions and trades
- Concept information at an overall and a high sub-system level
- Power level on engines?
- Reliability, loss of vehicle?
- Architecture
- Toxic Fluids?
- OMS/RCS fluids?
- etc
- Insights from operations involvement include:
- Qualitative areas for improvement, choice of technology
- Operating costs for the concept
- Fixed – everything required to achieve a single launch capability
- Variable – everything flight rate dependent
- Turnaround times – landing, turnaround, integration, launch, and hence number of flights possible per year per single vehicle
- Comparative assessment - multiple concepts

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Analysis Capabilities Available and In Use**

- Shuttle Lessons Learned

- Shuttle Data

- Studies and Analysis

- Subject Matter Experts - Ops

- Tools and Techniques

## AATe

- Conceptual tool – about 25 minimum input variables.
- Allows more detail if available, up to 75 input variables (“decisions”).
- All Excel/Visual Basic user interface
- Semi-intuitive, friendly, external interface
- Ability to save concepts and reload later within the workbook (~5 megs each, 3 workbooks, one for each stage, plus a 4th summary workbook)
- Complex internal workings involving both hard data and subject matter knowledge base matrixes

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**AATe**

- _[http://](http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_Info.htm)__[science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_Info.htm](http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_Info.htm)_

## Design screen is 1 of 2 required screens.

- Types of inputs are Ops driven; not a weight or size based model.

**Probability of Loss of Vehicle**

**Design Life**

**Degree of sub-systems integration (simplicity)**

**Toxic fluids?**

**Number and selection of different fluids**

**Scaling, L, W, H, Dry Wt**

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**AATe**

- http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_Info.htm

## When more concept design detail is available the tool provides some options for better definition. This is referred to as “Level 2” capability.

**Number of fluids...estimate **_**comparatively**_** OR disable this calculation and enable a **_**more refined**_** calculation.**
**View impacts of each fluid one by one by jumping to outputs**

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**AATe**

- http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_Info.htm

## Recent evolution integrated a Spaceport Facility and GSE acquisition cost estimator.

- The FACGSE spreadsheet calculates the acquisition costs based only on size and Shuttle historical data.
- The AATe takes these scaled values and further modifies them up/down based on the element design inputs.
- STILL EVOLVING – tends to estimate high due to inclusion of engineering.
- Does not yet include changes in costs due to existing facilities or engineering.

**ENTER dimensions...OUT come FAC/GSE costs “from scratch” for that scale system IF the FAC/GSE was like Shuttle.**
**AATe modifiers then process these results further to account for improvements**

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**AATe**

- http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_Info.htm

## AATe

- Outputs include:
- Turnaround Time, Landing to Launch
- Operations fixed costs
- Operations variable costs (per flight)
- Number of vehicles required to satisfy an inputted tonnage to orbit per year

**DOES **_***NOT ***_**HAVE FLIGHT RATE AS AN INPUT; GENERATES IT AS AN **_**OUTPUT **_**BY GENERATING TURN TIME PER SINGLE VEHICLE.**

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**AATe**

- http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_Info.htm

## Past and Current Applications

- Basic processes and assessment techniques used as far back as Access to Space
- Highly Reusable Space Transportation - used earliest rendition of technique, All-Rocket, Air-breathers, Single and Two Stage, all reusable
- Space Solar Power Study - Further refined model and multiple concepts
- Early 99 - In-house KSC LFBB/RFS special requests & studies
- Space Transportation Architecture Study 99 - All reusable, multiple ETO systems
- Early 2001 – request for AFRL SOV assessment, a TSTO RLV. Further collaborative arrangements to be defined in Nov. 2001.
- Through 2001 – Integration into AEE (was RSTS, was ISE) in support of 2nd Gen / RLV, SLI.

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**AATe**

- http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_Info.htm

## AATe

- Current Users March 2002
- Lockheed Martin Denver (JSRA rights), supporting SLI / MSFC.
- SAIC Huntsville, (NDA) performing various contracts supporting SLI / MSFC.
- KT Engineering, (NDA) performing study contracts supporting SLI / MSFC.
- Boeing Phantom Works (JSRA rights), used as part of a contract task, RMLS study, for AFRL. Work complete.
- Honeywell Space Systems, Palmdale, (NDA) contracts supporting 2nd Gen / SLI / MSFC.
- Orbital Sciences Corp (OSC), (NDA) contracts supporting NRA 8-30 / MSFC.
- AFRL – Future use / integration into AML as part of KSC support to RMLS effort.
- Northrop Grumman (through sub-contractors), (NDA) as a tool being integrated into the NG design environment (ModelCenter).
- Use Restrictions
- Free distribution to government (NASA, DoD) or KSC VSP JSRA member companies (Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, Command and Control Technologies Corp.)
- Distribution with NDA (non-disclosure agreement) restrictions to contractors doing work under government contract; must identify government contract and government COTR.

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**AATe**

- http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/AATe_Info.htm

## AATe Software Usability Upgrade

- Blue-Frog Technologies Corp. is upgrading the AATe for usability and other enhancements.
- Release 1.0 will be released early January 2003.
- Excel will still be the backend.
- Front end will be simple, intuitive, and EXTREMELY easy to use.
- Files will be able to be shared among users.
- Software size will come down to a couple of megs or less in a single package vs. 15 megs today in different Excel workbooks and files.

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**AATe Software Usability Upgrade**

## Vision Spaceport

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Vision Spaceport**

- Vision Spaceport was created under a Joint Sponsored Research Agreement combining government and industry investment dollars.
- Boeing
- CCT Corp.
- Lockheed-Martin
- NASA KSC
- More detail is required – about 150 input variables, ground and flight systems design and operations “decisions”.
- Separate briefing available.

## Design Environments – ModelCenter

- AATe is wrapped and awaiting integration into the NASA Advanced Engineering Environment (AEE) supporting the Space Launch Initiative
- Total ModelCenter AATe automation (no user in the loop) is in work, evolving.
- Plan is to integrate into AEE before end of year and any SLI requirements milestones.
- 3rd Stage evolution TBD to address scale and other issues for CTV type vehicles.
- Vision Spaceport wrap is in work.
- Will be complete near years end.
- Promote integration of multiple tools in a comparative capability into AEE.

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Design Environments – ModelCenter**
**AATe and Vision Spaceport**

## ModelCenter adds capabilities such as automated parametric and sensitivity analysis and DOE. Takes only minutes to graph.

- Example using a Bimese TSTO Stage 1:

**Effect on TAT of**** ****P****LOV ****ONLY**

**Effect on Ops Variable Cost per flight of sub-systems integration ONLY**

**96 days as is (0.998 or worse)**

**72 days if taken to six 9’s**

**$34M as is**

**$43M if worse, more Shuttle like**

**$27M minimum**

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Design Environments – ModelCenter**
**AATe and Vision Spaceport**

## KSC will explore the integration and/or addition and development of an operations analysis capability into the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) design environment for RLV’s.

- RLV foreseen as a viable competitor to non-CONUS based bombers, if a design is derived around an extreme ops focus.
- Work not yet begun; modest AFRL funds provided. Many preliminary planning discussions and roles defined or being defined.

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Design Environments – **
**AFRL and Adaptive Modeling Language (AML/Technosoft)**

## GEM-FLO

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**GEM-FLO**

- GEM-FLO is a Generic Simulation Environment for Modeling Future Launch Vehicles Operations.
- Productivity Apex Inc.
- Dynacs
- NASA
- Inputs are principally times and resources.
- Separate briefing available.
- Highlights and provides insight into the interaction of discrete events and the effects of variability and randomness.

- http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/Tools1.htm

## GEM-FLO

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**GEM-FLO**

- Tools users may combine the insights and strengths of multiple tools to create synergy and new insight.
- AATe and GEM-FLO in a sample, generic SLI analysis.

## Space transportation ops analysis and understanding is in “1st generation” of capabilities.

- Space transportation ops analysis and understanding is in “1st generation” of capabilities.
- Not a mature science.
- The need for exploring new and innovative techniques and analysis approaches, and for developing new tools, is continuous.

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Research – Capabilities in Development**

## Simulation Tools – Dynacs & Productivity Apex Inc. “GEM-FLO”

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Simulation Tools – Dynacs & Productivity Apex Inc. “GEM-FLO”**

- GEM-FLO capabilities will be applied in coming year within SLI by the KSC Systems Engineering Office.
- Separate briefing available.

## Simulation Toolkits - “TEAMS” (Glenn Rhodeside) (SBIR ph.1)

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Simulation Toolkits - “TEAMS” (Glenn Rhodeside) (SBIR ph.1)**

- TEAMS will create a simulation (1) environment, (2) approach and (3) distributed capability for running simulation tools.
- Traditionally, simulation is stalled by being about software that requires experts to continuously modify and run, in order to get obscure answers, and which is not readily used by other than the original developer local to the use.
- This proposal addresses all these barriers to making sophisticated simulation something really used in the day to day work of analyzing and making decisions.
- Phase 1 complete.
- Phase 2 leading to a useful product is pending SBIR FY03 selection decision.

- For more information contact Glenn Rhodeside, NASA KSC at 321-867-7910 or _[glenn.rhodeside-1@ksc.nasa.gov](mailto:glenn.rhodeside-1@ksc.nasa.gov)_

## Activity Based Costing by University of Texas, El Paso 

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Activity Based Costing by University of Texas, El Paso **
**and CCT Corp, (STTR ph.1)**

- A Phase 1 STTR, University (Dr. Torres) and Private Company (CCT, Fl) co-research-effort.
- Preliminary work promises to lend insight into at least the Shuttle TPS sub-system and some application to future RLV TPS design choices.
- The TPS pathfinder is being used to explore the feasibility of “abc” (Activity Based Costing) estimation to space transportation ops across all sub-systems.
- In work - Phase 1 due to conclude at end of fiscal year.
- Phase 2 will be pending selection of STTRs in FY 03.

## Higher Fidelity Operations Turnaround Time Estimation Capability (OPSTAT)

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Higher Fidelity Operations Turnaround Time Estimation Capability (OPSTAT)**

- In procurement / award loop.
- Ops needs to _*generate*_ the value of turnaround time for conceptual space transportation systems based on design and operations factors influencing this variable so that earliest possible insight exists to feed into any investment process or decision making.

- (We can afford to err on costs...but if we err on turnaround time, we won’t even be near the side of the barn on total systems costs and operation for any desired flight rate per year)

**The vision**

**The reality**

## Knowledge Capture and Reasoning – 

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Knowledge Capture and Reasoning – **
**Discovery Machines Corp. “TMK” Methods (Jessica Mock) (SBIR ph.1)**

- The “task, method, knowledge” TMK approach uses a diagrammatic approach to both problem formulation AND to problem resolution. While some programs assist in diagramming relationships, and while some capabilities in broad use (like Excel) assist problem resolution (calculating, modeling, iterating, etc) there are NO real capabilities that join diagrammatic formulation to resolution seamlessly.
- Simulations begin to address this but the TMK method is broader in that it establishes room for all types of calculations, not just simulation.
- A very low TRL product, but the engine is functional! True research leading to new commercial products.
- Phase 1 complete.
- Phase 2 leading to a useful product is pending SBIR FY03 selection decision.

- _[www.discoverymachine.com](http://www.discoverymachine.com/)_

## Summary

**Space Transportation Operations Research and Analysis**
**Summary**

**Space transportation ops analysis that is meaningful at the earliest stages of design, technology and investment decision making is a maturing science.**
**To the degree ops analysis is useful in possibly altering future outcomes (cost, turnaround time, overall affordability...) it is more difficult.**
**To the degree ops analysis becomes more readily feasible, as detail emerges, the answers become more a consequence of earlier decisions that can not be un-done, not information useful to significantly alter that outcome.**

**Pre-Phase A Advanced Studies**

**Phase B Definition**

**Phase A Preliminary Analysis**

**Phase D Development**

**Phase C Design**

**Phase E Operations**

**Concept Collaboration, Assessment and Feedback to Design**

**Process/Product Assessment and Refinement**

**Virtual Prototyping**

**Detailed, Focused Development**

**Operations**

**Requirements Understanding/Filtering Architectures****	****Selection/Analysis****	****Execution**

**Concept X**

- Concept Y

**Concept **
**Z**

- Depth

**60-90% of life cycle cost locked in (but not necessarily known!)**

- Breadth

**Year 1: “We need to reduce the power level on the engine to increase reusability, reduce layers or infrastructure across that program element, and to reduce its cost and turn time dramatically...While we are at it, lets have only 4 engines, not 6...The TPS will be the new hard stuff...”**

**Year 10: “If we provide improved access to the engine maybe we can cut a shift off the operation in that bay...Can we un-employ two technicians if we use the new web based work control?...Should we invent a laser to scan the TPS and save 20 hrs a month?”**