# Presentation: 206891

## Vickie L. Nadolski 
NOAA Deputy Assistant Administrator for Weather Services

**NOAA Deputy Assistant Administrator for Weather Services**

**Advances in Marine and Ocean Weather Forecasting **

- American Boating Congress
**Washington, D.C.**
**April 28, 2008**

## Weather Impacts

- Recreational
- Boating

## Boating Impacts onU.S. Economy

**$39.5 billion in annual sales and service**** **
**$108 Billion impact ****on the American economy**

***Source: NMMA***

## Weather Impacts onU.S. Economy

**One-Third of Nation’s GDP is weather or climate sensitive**
**$4 Trillion in 2005**

***Source: Economic******Statistics for NOAA******April 2006***

## Weather ImpactsRecreational Boating

**In 2006, environmental****hazards resulted in:**
*621 accidents*
- 123 due to weather
*108 fatalities*
- 34 due to weather
***Source: U.S. Coast Guard 2006 Boating Statistics***

## NOAA

- Helps Ensure
- a Safe Boating
- Experience

## NOAA Marine Forecasts

**NOAA Marine Forecasts**

## NOAA Marine Forecasts

- NWS Headqua

- r

- te

- r

- s

- Ocean Prediction Center

- W

- e

- a

- ther

- F

- o

- r

- ecast O

- f

- fice (122)

- Coastal W

- e

- a

- ther

- F

- o

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- ecast O

- f

- fice (48)

**Samoa**

- Tropical Prediction Center

**NOAA Marine Forecasts**

## Top 10 Boating States

**Top 10 Boating States**

## NOAA Marine WeatherProducts and Services

**www.crh.noaa.gov/greatlakes**

**www.weather.gov/carolinascoast**

## Digital Marine Forecasts

**www.crh.noaa.gov/greatlakes**

## NOAA Tides and Currents

**CO-OPS Operational Forecast System**** **
*Chesapeake Bay*
*Galveston Bay*
*Lake Erie*
*Lake Huron*
*Lake Michigan*
*Lake Ontario*
*Lake Superior*
*New York and**New Jersey*
*St. John's River*

**http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html**

## Great Lakes CoastalForecasting System

**http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/**

**Great Lakes Coastal****Forecasting System**

## NOAA WAVEWATCH III

**http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/index2.shtml**

## Experimental Extratropical Storm Surge Height Forecast 

**Experimental Extratropical Storm Surge Height Forecast **

**http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov**

## Experimental Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook 

**http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml**

## Enhanced Delivery Methods

## Dial-A-Buoy1-888-701-8992 

**Dial-A-Buoy****1-888-701-8992 **

**http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/dial.shtml**

## National Data Buoy Center

**http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov**

## SARSATLifeline to Survival

**http://www.sarsat.noaa.gov**

## Safe Boating Weather Tips

**Plan Ahead**
*Start accessing NWS**extended outlooks several**days in advance *
**Before Setting Out**
*Pay close attention**to the local forecast*
**After Setting Out**
*Stay tuned to NOAA**Weather Radio All**Hazards (NWR) or other**sources of weather info.*

## The Future of 

- Marine Weather

## Enhanced Capabilities
Super resolution radar
Airborne Doppler Radar
Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

*Super resolution radar*
*Airborne Doppler Radar*
*Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)*

**Where We’re Headed**

## Where We’re Headed

**Severe Weather**
*Warn-On Forecasts: Tornado warning lead time increases from an average of 13 minutes today to as much as 1 hour*
*Severe Thunderstorm Warning lead time increases from an average of 18 minutes to as much as 2 hours*

## Where We’re Headed

**Tropical Cyclone Services**
*Warning lead time for landfall increases from less than **24 hours to 3 days*
*50% reduction in 48 hr intensity error (~8 kts)*
*50% reduction in 48 hr track error (~50 nm)*

**Where We’re Headed**

## Forecast Uncertainty Information 
Integral and essential part of all forecasts
Enterprise-wide partnership to generate and communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers and public
Expressed in terms of probabilities

*Integral and essential part of **all forecasts*
*Enterprise-wide partnership to **generate and communicate **forecast uncertainty to decision **makers and public*
*Expressed in terms of probabilities*

**Where We’re Headed**

## Needed Advances in Capabilities

**Results**
**Improved:**
** ****Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Forecasts**
**Tornado and ****Flash Flood Forecasts**
**Marine,**** Aviation, Fire, and Space Weather Forecasts**
**Flood, River, and****Ocean Predictions**
**Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Etc.**

**Advances**** **
***Earth Observations***
***Data Assimilation***
*** ******Models***
*** ******Forecasting Techniques***
*** ******Information Technology***
***Dissemination Methods***** ***** ***

## Working Together...toward a common future

## Slide 29