# Presentation: 513558

## Outlook for

**Energy Information Administration**

**LNG San Antonio 2006**
**March 16, 2006**
**San Antonio, TX**

***Outlook for***
***U.S. Natural Gas Markets***

## Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Crude Oil Production

**Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Crude Oil Production**

**Shut In Capacity**

**WTI Crude Oil Price**

**thousand barrels per day**

**dollars per barrel**

- History

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2006*

- Projections

## Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Natural Gas Production

**Shut-In Capacity**

**Henry Hub Price ***

**Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Natural Gas Production**

- * Trading on Henry Hub suspended from 9/23 – 10/6

**billion cubic feet per day**

**dollars per thousand cubic feet**

*Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2006*

- History

- Projections

## EIA Has Reassessed Its Long-Term Oil Price Projection

**Major oil producing countries pace investment more consistent with higher oil price path**
**Investment impediments more persistent, even after several years of relatively higher oil prices**
**Cost of doing business increasing**
**Not due to “Peak Oil” considerations, although we are following this issue closely**

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2004 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006*

## U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030

**U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030**
**(2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030

**U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030**
**(quadrillion Btu)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

- History

- Projections

**Petroleum**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Renewables**

## U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2030

**(trillion cubic feet)**

**Transportation***

**Industrial***

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Electric Power**

- Projections

- History

- * Includes lease and plant fuel

- ** Includes pipeline fuel

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2030

**(billion kilowatthours)**

**Petroleum**

**Renewables**

**Coal**

**Natural Gas**

**Nuclear**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports,

**1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**15%**

**21%**

**Net Imports**

**Consumption**

**Production**

**Natural Gas Net Imports, 2004 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030

**(trillion cubic feet)**

**Alaska**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore**

**Lower 48 Associated-Dissolved**

**Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore**

- Projections

- History

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply,

**2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet)**

**Growth in Alaskan Production**

**       ****Growth in**
**Non-Associated Unconventional**

**Growth in LNG Imports**

**Base Production (all sources)**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1960-2030

**U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1960-2030**
**(trillion cubic feet)**

**Canada**

**Liquefied Natural Gas**

**Mexico**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

- History

- Projections

## U.S. LNG Imports by Country, 1992-2005                                        (billion cubic feet)

**Nigeria**

**Qatar**

**Other**

**Australia**

**Trinidad and Tobago**

**Algeria**

**Oman**

**Malaysia**

**Egypt**

- Energy Information Administration

## Current U.S. LNG Import Terminals

**Current U.S. LNG Import Terminals**

**Elba Island, Georgia**
- 7.3 Bcf Storage Capacity
- Regasification Capacity:
- Peak: 1.2 Bcf per day
- Baseload: 1 Bcf per day

**Cove Point, Maryland**
- 7.8 Bcf Storage Capacity
- Regasification Capacity:
- Peak: 1 Bcf per day
- Baseload: 750 MMcf per day

**Everett, Massachusetts**
- 3.5 Bcf Storage Capacity
- Regasification Capacity:
- Peak: 885 MMcf per day
- Baseload: 710 MMcf per day

- Energy Information Administration

**Lake Charles, Louisiana**
- 6.3 Bcf Storage Capacity
- Regasification Capacity:
- Peak: 1.2 Bcf per day
- Baseload: 1 Bcf per day

**Gulf Gateway Energy Bridge**
- No Storage Capacity
- Regasification Capacity:
- Peak & Baseload: 500 MMcf per day

## U.S. LNG Imports, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

- History

- Projections

**New Terminals**

**Existing Terminals**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## LNG Imports at New Terminals, 2010–2030(billion cubic feet)

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## Components of Regional LNG Costs, Excluding Fuel, 2020 (2004 dollars per thousand cubic feet)

*** Regasification includes pipeline cost from Bahamas**

**Average wellhead price in 2030 @$5.92**

**Average wellhead price in 2010 @$5.03**

**Average wellhead price in 2020 @$4.90**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2006*

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2006*****, February 2006**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2005*****, July 2005**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****Dec 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**