# Presentation: 653822

## Slide 1

## Concepts that represent a State or Condition (or sometimes a process) of the resource that we want to avoid or maintain.

| Concept | Management Aim  |
| --- | --- |
| Ecological Threshold | Avoid Crossing |
| Critical Load | Avoid Reaching |
| User Capacity Standard (NPS) | Avoid Reaching |
| Policy or Regulatory Standard | Avoid Reaching |
| Undesired Condition | Avoid Reaching |
| Desired Condition | Maintain |
| Range of Natural Variability | Maintain |
| Outside the Range of Acceptable Variation  | Avoid  |
| Etc | Etc |

## Tools to evaluate the State or Condition (or sometimes a process) that we want to avoid or maintain.

| Concept | Management  | Tool |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Ecological Threshold | Avoid Crossing |  |
| Critical Load | Avoid Reaching |  |
| User Capacity Standard (NPS) | Avoid Reaching |  |
| Policy or Regulatory Standard | Avoid Reaching |  |
| Undesired Condition | Avoid Reaching |  |
| Desired Condition | Maintain |  |
| Range of Natural Variability | Maintain |  |
| Outside the Range of Acceptable Variation  | Avoid  |  |
| Etc | Etc |  |

- Statistical
- Process
- Control

## Tools to evaluate the State or Condition (or sometimes a process) that we want to avoid or maintain.

| Concept | Management  | Tool |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Ecological Threshold | Avoid Crossing |  |
| Critical Load | Avoid Reaching |  |
| User Capacity Standard (NPS) | Avoid Reaching |  |
| Policy or Regulatory Standard | Avoid Reaching |  |
| Undesired Condition | Avoid Reaching |  |
| Desired Condition | Maintain |  |
| Range of Natural Variability | Maintain |  |
| Outside the Range of Acceptable Variation  | Avoid  |  |
| Etc | Etc |  |

- Assessment
- Points

*.. any point where we have determined a priori that we want to assess the status or trend of a resource(s) relative to program goals, natural variation, or potential concerns and to determine if management action(s) should be considered*.

## We are NOT suggesting that the idea of “Assessment Points” can or should replace other concepts

- Rather, we are suggesting that the idea of “Assessment Points” can be used as a common framework that would  compliment these concepts, and bring added value.

## Common Framework

## Added Value

- Are we There?
- Are we headed in the direction of a point or zone of interest?
- How quickly will we get there?
- What are the consequences if I reach the point or zone of interest?
- Is there anything I can do before we get there?
- What are the consequences if I don’t do anything?

## Standard

- Possible
- Actions

- No Action
- Warranted
- at this Time

- No Action
- Warranted
- at this Time

- Alert Key
- Officials of
- Trajectory
-  and Predicted
- Time Frames

- Consider or
- Investigate Potential
- Causes of Trajectory

- Alert Key
- Officials of
- Continued
- Trajectory

- Consult with
- Experts Regarding
- Potential Causes
- and Possible Actions

- Consider
- Potential
- Preventative
- Actions

- Management
- Actions as per
- NEPA and other
- laws, regulations,
- and policies

- Revise and Initiate
- Alternative
- Management
- Actions as per ...

##   Not dictated by policy or mandates

*(except where the assessment point coincides with other regulatory laws or policies)*

-   Decided by scientists and managers working in concert

##   Explicit Process that brings added value 

-   It is a means of beginning a explicit dialogue between
-      scientists and managers

-   It is forward thinking, rather than reactionary

-   It provides a means of incorporating some existing
-      ideas (e.g. ecological thresholds) that have not been
-      well integrated with management

## Assessment Points

- Based on Value of the Resource

**Notes:**
OK, so what then are some of the contexts where we might assign an assessment point.

First,  Assessment Points could be based on some value of the resource.

Alternatively, they could be based on some unit of time.

## Assessment Points

- Based on Time

**Notes:**
OK, so what then are some of the contexts where we might assign an assessment point.

First,  Assessment Points could be based on some value of the resource.

Alternatively, they could be based on some unit of time.

## Assessment Points

- Based on Time and Values

## Assessment Points

- Based on Value of the Resource

**Notes:**

First, might be a real or hypothesized ecological threshold.

## Assessment Points

*“**the amount of pollutant that an ecosystem can safely absorb before there is a change in ecosystem state and/or in a particular ecosystem function.” Groffman et al. (2006)*

- Based on Value of the Resource

**Notes:**
Assessment points may be based on critical loads, define as: “the amount of pollutant that an ecosystem can safely absorb before there is a change in ecosystem state and/or in a particular ecosystem function;” Groffman et al. (2006)

## Assessment Points

- Based on Value of the Resource

## Assessment Points

- Based on Value of the Resource

**Notes:**
Another obvious context would be for some sort of targeted condition.  Clearly, we might want an assessment point when we are at, or near, the limits of such a condition.

So, what do I mean by a targeted condition.....

## Assessment Points

- Based on Time

## Assessment Points

- As a Means of Embracing Uncertainty

**Notes:**
An important benefit of assessment points is that they provide a means of embracing uncertainty. 

For example, lets say you have an hypothesized ecological threshold, but there is considerable uncertainty about the actual value of that threshold. Assessment points can be assigned to indicator values preceding the actual hypothesized ecological threshold as a means of evaluating the cumulative set of indicators and evidence that the hypothesized value of the ecological threshold is impending (or not). Such points can also be assigned in increasing frequency as the hypothesized threshold is being approached, thus its probability of occurrence increases.

## Assessment Points

- As a Means of Embracing Uncertainty

**Notes:**
Similarly, there could be alternative hypotheses about where an ecological threshold may occur. Thus, assessment points could be assigned to each of the alternatives, including points preceding those alternatives, again to account for the uncertainty

## Assessment Points

- As a Means of Embracing Uncertainty

**Notes:**
Another obvious context would be for some sort of targeted condition.  Clearly, we might want an assessment point when we are at, or near, the limits of such a condition.

So, what do I mean by a targeted condition.....

## Assessment Points

- As a Means of Embracing Uncertainty

**Notes:**
In the context of a desired or acceptable state of the resource, we may all agree that there is point at which the condition of the resource is no longer acceptable, but disagree about where that point of degradation occurs. By explicitly setting up assessment points along the way, we can use the points to evaluate the criteria by which we would determine acceptability, and whether or not those criteria have been met.