# Presentation: 216432

## High Agricultural Prices: Current Reasons and Prospects for the Future

**Daryll E. Ray**
- University of Tennessee
- Agricultural Policy Analysis Center

**FDIC’s US-China Rural Finance Seminar**
- Dallas, Texas
- May 22, 2008

## Recent Corn Prices

## What are the Most Often Stated Triggers?

**Ethanol**
**US corn-based ethanol production is booming**
**Federal mandates for biofuels**
**Increasing meat consumption in China and India**
**Middle class shift from grain-based to meat-based diets**

## Expected Ethanol Demand

**Source: UDSA Baseline Projections to 2017**

**Notes:**
With 100% of the cost of production we see a significant upward shift of the whole distribution, especially the lower tail
This results in a higher average and a lower probability of very low levels of total returns
This brings up the very low without affecting the very high

## We Have Seen This Before

## What Were the Triggers Then?

**Russian grain imports**
**Crop failure**
**Decision not to liquidate cattle herds**
**Petrodollar driven exports**
**Loans to developing countries**
**Used to import food to feed people**

## Laying the Blame: Then & Now

**Then**
**Food vs. feed****—Western grain-based-meat diets**
**Eat less meat so the poor of the world can have grain to eat**
**Now**
**Food vs. fuel****—US ethanol mandates**
**Eliminate grain-based biofuels to the poor or the world can have grain to eat**

## Looking More Closely

**Low price regimen**
**Dismantling of government stocks**
**Random weather events**
**Reduced world-wide grain stocks**
**Increased demand for meat in China **
**But has this put significant upward pressure on international grain prices?**

## Looking More Closely

**Low price regimen**
**US farm program design suppressed prices**
**Leaving little incentive to invest and expand production**
**This was also true for corn production in China beginning in 1999(?)**

## Looking More Closely

**Dismantling of government stocks**
**Expectation that commercials would hold any needed stocks**
**Concerns about cost of government stocks programs**
**Stocks discouraged by trade policies that put decisions in the hands of markets**
**Random weather events**
**Australia and Ukraine**

## World Ending-Year Stocks

**Grains: Ending Crop Year Stock Levels**
- Source: USDA PS&D

## Looking More Closely

**Low price regimen**
**Dismantling of government stocks**
**Random weather events**
**Reduced world-wide grain stocks**
**Increased demand for meat in China **
**But has this put significant upward pressure on international grain prices?**

## China Meat

**Production and Consumption of Beef, Pork, and Broilers**
- Source: USDA PS&D

## China Meat and Corn

**Indexed Meat Production (Pork, Broilers, Beef) and Corn Feed**
- Source: USDA PS&D

## China Grains

**Grains: Production and Consumption**
- Source: USDA PS&D

## China Grains

**Grains: Imports**
- Source: USDA PS&D

## China Grains

**Grains: Exports**
- Source: USDA PS&D

## China Grains

**Grains: Exports, Imports**
- Source: USDA PS&D

## China Grains

**Grains: Exports, Net Exports, Imports**
- Source: USDA PS&D

## China Grains

**Grains: Ending Crop Year Stock Levels**
- Source: USDA PS&D

## China Connection

**Yes, meat consumption per person is increasing relatively rapidly in China**
**Yes, this has caused increased use of corn and other grain (also protein meals) in China**
**So are China’s diet changes causing high corn/grain prices in the US and internationally?**
**No! (No? Why not?)**
**Because China has used its own grain (production and stocks) to produce meat**
**Meat and grain markets are walled within China  and have virtually no affect on outside prices**

## Greatest Risks

**Short-term**
**Weather, weather, weather: US, Brazil, China, India, elsewhere **
**For example, US annual corn yields have dropped by 20 percent in years past (’83 ’88 ’93)**
**High input prices**
**Long-term**
**Acreage and yields greatly increase worldwide (not if with current prices)**
**Low prices will return**
**Reduced farm asset values, especially land**

## On Knife’s Edge

**Short-term object lesson?**
**Need strategic reserves**
- A properly managed stocks reserve
- Reduce economic dislocation
**Long-term reality?**
**“****New Era?” ****(fourth “****New Era****” in my lifetime)**
**Supply growth has always caught and then surpassed demand growth ****(and it does not take long****)**
- This time, surge in productive capacity will be global suggesting need for global supply management

## Long-Term Considerations

**International supply response—yield **
**Development and adoption of drought and saline resistant crops**
**Globalization of agribusiness: Near universal access to the new technologies world-wide **
- Narrowing of technology and yield differentials between US and the rest of the world

## Long-Term Considerations

**International supply response—acreage **
- Long-run** land potentially availability for major crops**
**Savannah land in Brazil**** ****(250 mil. ac. -- USDA says 350)**
**Savannah land in Venezuela, Guyana, and Peru**** ****(200 mil. ac.)**
**Land in former Soviet Union**** ****(100 mil. ac.)**
**Arid land in China’s west**** ****(100 mil. ac. GMO wheat)**
**Savannah land in Sub-Saharan Africa**** ****(300 mil. ac. -- 10 percent of 3.1 bil. ac. of Savannah land)**
**Easy to underestimate supply growth**

**Notes:**
250 mil. ac. of savannah land in Brazil (USDA has estimated this to be 350 million and can be triple cropped)
200 mil. ac. of savannah land in Venezuela, Guyana, and Peru (DTN story as stated by Brazilian crop official)
100 mil. ac. in former Soviet Union Abandoned land in Ukraine, Belorussia, and Russia
250 mil. ac. in China’s west (100 million hectares of arid, alkali land identified as usable for GMO wheat with arabadopsis gene)
300 mil. ac. of savannah land in Sub-Saharan Africa (10% of 3.1 bil ac of Savannah land in Sub-Saharan Africa)

## Policy for All Seasons

**Assume the unexpected will happen**
**Random policy and weather events do occur—****Plan for them**** **
**Establishment of International Grain and Oilseed Reserve**
**Moderate impacts of random policy and weather events by providing stable supply until production responds**

## Policy for All Seasons

**Keep productive capacity well ahead of demand**
**Public investment in yield enhancing technologies and practices **
**Provide means to hold arable land in rotating fallow during periods of overproduction**
**This land can then quickly be returned to production in the case of a crisis**

## Thank You

*Thank You*

## Weekly Policy Column

-   _[dray@utk.edu](mailto:dray@utk.edu)_
- requesting to be added to APAC’s Policy Pennings listserv