# Presentation: 662260

## A New Forecasting Process to Support America’s No Surprise Weather Service

**Interactive Forecast Preparation (IFP) Operations Concept**

## Traditional Process

**From Text to 3Ds*****: ******Digital, Detailed and Displayable***

- ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

**New Forecast Process**

- TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

- MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
- EASTON
- PTCLDY	CLOUDY	PTCLDY	PTCLDY	SUNNY	PTCLDY  60/52	63/54	65/47	55/40	55/37	50/33POP 20	POP 20	POP 20	POP 20	POP 10	POP 10

## Traditional Forecasting Process

**National Centers**** ****Model Guidance**

**Schedule Driven**
**Product Oriented**
**Labor Intensive**

**Field Offices***Type Text Products*

- TODAY
- SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
- SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET.
-  COLDER WIT HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WINHD 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO
- THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

- DMARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
- EASTON
- PTCLDY	CLOUDY	PTCLDY	PTCLDY	SUNNY	PTCLDY60/52	63/54	65/47	55/40	55/37	50/33POP 20	POP 20	POP 20	POP 20	POP 10

**National Centers***Generate Graphical Products*

## New Forecasting Process

**National Centers**
** ****Model Guidance**

**High Resolution Grids**

**Local Digital ****Forecast**** Database**

**Field ****Offices**

***Interactive***
***Collaborative***
***Information Oriented***

**National ****Centers**

**Collaborate**

***Data and Science Focus***

**National Digital ****Forecast**** Database**

- TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

***Event Driven***
***Always current***

## National Digital Forecast Database Gives Customers What They Want

***The public, emergency managers and city planners use ******WWW. graphic products for detailed forecasts***

**Different Products for Different Customers**

***Commercial weather companies & emergency managers use grids to generate tailored products***

-  ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

***Radio stations & public read text forecasts***

**More weather data**
**Higher resolution forecasts**
**Visual displays of probability**
**User-defined  products create business opportunities**

## Interactive Forecast Preparation

**Key Points**
- 	Implementation of IFPS-based operations requires significant changes to forecast formulation and field office procedures and a significant shift in NWS operational culture and organizational roles.

- SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
- SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET.
-  COLDER WIT HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WINHD 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO
- THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70

## Accommodate User Operational Needs Better

- Data access without regard to boundaries between individual field office areas of responsibility
- Minimize forecast information discontinuities along CWFA boundaries

- Digital forecast data and resolution support products and services from local, to national scales
-  NWS offices and national centers exchange observation, guidance, and forecast information to facilitate coordination of products and services