# Presentation: 467569

## NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

**61****st**** Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, New Orleans, LA**
**6 March 2007**

**COAMPS****®**** is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory**

## Introduction/Background

**Outline**

- Modeling Infrastructure
- TC Related Research
**Analysis/Initialization**
**Boundary Layer**
**Moving, Nested Grids**
**Air/Ocean Coupling**
**Ensemble Prediction**
- Summary

## NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using COAMPS

**Introduction/Background**

- COAMPS operational at FNMOC since 1998
- Operational use primarily for mid-latitudes
**Atmosphere only**
**0-3 day forecasts**
- Not used operationally as a ′′TC model′′
**Non-optimal grid configurations**
**High-resolution nest not centered on TC**
- NRL research now focused on TC analysis and prediction
**Infrastructure**
**Analysis**
**Physical parameterizations**
**Air-Ocean-Wave Coupling**
- ′′**COAMPS-TC**′′ scheduled for operational use in FY08

## Introduction/Background

**Outline**

- Modeling Infrastructure
- TC Related Research
**Analysis/Initialization**
**Boundary Layer**
**Moving, Nested Grids**
**Air/Ocean Coupling**
**Ensemble Prediction**
- Summary

## COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure

**Atmospheric Model**

**Dynamics**

**Physics**

## COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure

**Dynamics**

**Physics**

**Atmospheric Model**

**Ocean Model**

**Dynamics**

**Physics**

## COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure

**Dynamics**

**Physics**

**Atmospheric Model**

**Ocean Model**

- ESMF Modeling Superstructure

**Dynamics**

**Physics**

- ESMF superstructure used to couple models

## COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure

- Flux Coupler

**Dynamics**

**Physics**

**Atmospheric Model**

**Ocean Model**

- ESMF Modeling Superstructure

**Dynamics**

**Physics**

- ESMF superstructure used to couple models

- Flux coupler transfers fields between models

## COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure

- ESMF superstructure used to couple models

- Flux coupler transfers fields between models

- WRF interface allows for different physics suites

**Dynamics**

**WRF Physics Interface to Physics Suites**

- Flux Coupler

**Atmospheric Model**

**Ocean Model**

- ESMF Modeling Superstructure

## COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure

**Dynamics**

**WRF Physics Interface to Physics Suites**

- Flux Coupler

**Atmospheric Model**

**Ocean Model**

- ESMF Modeling Superstructure

*Bottom Line:** Share Community Models/Share Community Physics*

## COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure

*Bottom Line:** Share Community Models/Share Community Physics*

- ESMF Modeling Superstructure

**Atmospheric Model**

**Ocean Model**

**Wave Model**

**Dynamics**

**WRF Physics Interface to Physics Suites**

- Flux Coupler

*Relatively easy to add new modeling components*

## COAMPS Modeling Infrastructure

- Using WRF to include physics suites
- Advantages:
**Easy to couple models**
**Can test many physics options**
- Lessons Learned
**Large overhead in running “plug-and-play” physics**
**Learn from past/present: Set community standards**
**Grid orientation (i,j,k)**
**Input variables (i.e., namelist control)**
**Standard way of building models/systems**
**Collaborate w/NCEP, NCAR, others on ESMF development/use**
**Treat computer science as science**

## COAMPS

**Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System**

## Introduction/Background

**Outline**

- Modeling Infrastructure
- TC Related Research
**Analysis/Initialization**
**Boundary Layer**
**Moving, Nested Grids**
**Air/Ocean Coupling**
**Ensemble Prediction**
- Summary

## High-resolution Synthetic Observations for TC Initialization

**Case: 0000 UTC 9 September 2000**

**Synthetic Observations Built From:**
**Modified Rankine Vortex**
**JTWC Warning Message w/Satellite Data**
**NOGAPS T20/L15 truncated fields**
**Blend Synthetics w/all other observations in MVOI**

*Improved TC representation with new synthetics*

*Improved TC Track Forecasts with new synthetics*

*Higher resolution with new synthetics*

**Notes:**
Look at zoomed-out part, the analysis program will underestimate maximum wind by using OPS version synthetic OBS, since the maximum wind in the data is 55kt at 2-degree radius; while with higher resolution of the new version the maximum wind in the data is 80kt at 0.5-deg radius
OPS is wind too strong in the outer radius at 1Q (using environmental wind twice), too broadly spread out, height/wind not balanced well (Z is symmetric, but not wind due to ENV-wind)
New synthetic OBS fits Vmax, R35, R50 much better

## TC Analysis: NAVDAS/Relocation

**850 mb Wind, Analysis Time: 0000 UTC 29 September 2005**

## TC Analysis: NAVDAS/Relocation

**850 mb Wind, Analysis Time: 0000 UTC 29 September 2005**

## TC Analysis: NAVDAS/Relocation

**850 mb Wind, Analysis Time: 0000 UTC 29 September 2005**

## TC Analysis: NAVDAS/Relocation

**850 mb Wind, Analysis Time: 0000 UTC 29 September 2005**

## TC Analysis: NAVDAS/Relocation

**850 mb Wind, Analysis Time: 0000 UTC 29 September 2005**

*Also studying impact of using “spin-up” storm and NAVDAS options*

## NCODA

**2D OI SST analysis**
**3D MVOI analysis (T, S, SSH, Currents, Ice Concentration, Significant Wave Height) **
- Features
**Integrated with COAMPS**
**Assimilates MCSST; GOES, LAC, Ship, and Buoy SST; XBT; CTD; PALACE Float; Fixed and Drifting Buoy; Altimeter SSHA; SSM/I Sea Ice; Altimeter and Buoy SWH**
**Nested grids**
**5 Map projections**
**Integrated w/Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) databases**
- Transitions to FNMOC:
**FY99: 2D SST analysis for COAMPS**
**FY02: New QC code**
**FY03: 3D ocean MVOI; 2D SST for NOGAPS**
- Supports:
**Atmosphere: NOGAPS, COAMPS**
**Ocean: NCOM, HYCOM, SWAFS, WW3**

**NRL Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation**
- Focus:** Optimal fit of observational and model data**

- On-going Research:
**New data types:**
**Currents: HF Radar, Drifters**
**SST: Microwave, Skin SST from AATSR**
**Detection and Correction of Aerosol Contamination in Infrared Satellite SST Retrievals**
**Convert to 3d variational analysis**

## Introduction/Background

**Outline**

- Modeling Infrastructure
- TC Related Research
**Analysis/Initialization**
**Boundary Layer**
**Moving, Nested Grids**
**Air/Ocean Coupling**
**Ensemble Prediction**
- Summary

## CBLAST

**Coupled Boundary Layers/Air-Sea Transfer ONR DRI**

**CBLAST measurements (heavy black line with asterisks) suggest that the drag coefficient does not vary with wind speed as much as earlier estimates for winds over about 21 m/s. **

**CBLAST**

*Uncertainty also exists for C**E**/C**D*

## CBLAST

**Coupled Boundary Layers/Air-Sea Transfer ONR DRI**

- COAMPS 4.2.4
**Based on Louis (1979) and COARE (Fairall 1996; 2003)**
- COAMPS new
**Based on COAMPS 4.2.4, with constant drag coefficient over 22 m/s and modified z****0q ****and z****0h**
- COAMPS w/ARWSFC
**COAMPS model implemented with the WRF ARW surface layer parameterization**

**COAMPS TC intensity forecasts have strong sensitivity to surface flux parameters**

## Introduction/Background

**Outline**

- Modeling Infrastructure
- TC Related Research
**Analysis/Initialization**
**Boundary Layer**
**Moving, Nested Grids**
**Air/Ocean Coupling**
**Ensemble Prediction**
- Summary

## COAMPS MPI Moving Nests

**Hurricane Gordon:**** 00Z September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000**

- Forecast position every 6 hours

- 0 h

- 48 h

**81 km (61x61)**

**27 km (121x85)**

- Fixed Nest Option

## COAMPS MPI Moving Nests

**Hurricane Gordon:**** 00Z September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000**

- Forecast position every 6 hours

- 0 h

- 48 h

**81 km (61x61)**

**27 km (121x85)**

- Fixed Nest Option

- Forecast position every 6 hours

## COAMPS MPI Moving Nests

**Hurricane Gordon:**** 00Z September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000**

- Forecast position every 6 hours

- 0 h

- 48 h

**81 km (61x61)**

**27 km (121x85)**

- Fixed Nest Option

- Forecast position every 6 hours

- Results
- Identical Track Predictions for Fixed and Moving Nests
- Moving Nest Option: 2.7x Faster

## COAMPS MPI Moving Nests

**Hurricane Gordon:**** 00Z September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000**

- Forecast position every 6 hours

- 0 h

- 48 h

**81 km (61x61)**

**27 km (121x85)**

- Fixed Nest Option

- Results
- Identical Track Predictions for Fixed and Moving Nests
- Moving Nest Option: 2.7x Faster
- Recently Added Two-Way Interaction between all Nests

- Forecast position every 6 hours

## Introduction/Background

**Outline**

- Modeling Infrastructure
- TC Related Research
**Analysis/Initialization**
**Boundary Layer**
**Moving, Nested Grids**
**Air/Ocean Coupling**
**Ensemble Prediction**
- Summary

## Coastal Upwelling

**Adaptive Ocean Sampling Network II (AOSN-II)**
**Horizontal Resolution Sensitivity/Wind Stress Validation**

**Graphs on right show observed (upper) and COAMPS (lower) Surface Stress**

## One-Way vs.Two-Way Coupling

**Air-Sea Interaction in the Adriatic Sea**

## One-Way vs.Two-Way Coupling

**Air-Sea Interaction in the Adriatic Sea**
**30 day means: 23 Sept – 23 Oct 2002**

*Lowest SST and near-surface wind RMS and Bias Errors found using 2-way Coupling*

## Prototype Two-Way Air/Ocean Coupling in COAMPS

**Hurricane Frances**

## Introduction/Background

**Outline**

- Modeling Infrastructure
- TC Related Research
**Analysis/Initialization**
**Boundary Layer**
**Moving, Nested Grids**
**Air/Ocean Coupling**
**Ensemble Prediction**
- Summary

## Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System

- COAMPS:** ****Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System**

- Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System Development
**Collaborative w/Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS)**
**Navy/AF**
**FNMOC/AFWA Computers**
**29-member COAMPS ensemble:**
**Based on 29-member NOGAPS ensemble**
**6-hour update cycle**
**Relocatable domain**
**Initial condition perturbations**
**Lateral boundary condition uncertainty**
**Model uncertainty**

**Mean of ensembles represents west coast stratus better than the control run or any ensemble member generated using different boundary layer parameters**

**CTRL is the control forecast**
**Mean is the average of all the ensemble members**
**I****1****, I****2****, S****h1****, and S****h2**** are members using different values of boundary layer parameters**

## NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using COAMPS

**Summary**

- Current Research
- Infrastructure
- Analysis
- Boundary Layer
- Moving, Nested Grids
- Air/Ocean/Wave Coupling
- Ensemble Prediction
- Schedule
- FY07
**Two-Way Air/Ocean Beta Test**
**Surface Flux/Moist Physics Upgrades to FNMOC**
- FY08
**Initial “COAMPS for TCs” to FNMOC**
**Improved TC analysis (e.g., relocation, spin-up)**
**Initial installation will be uncoupled**
**Air/Wave Coupling Development**
- FY09+
**Air/Ocean Coupling to operations**
**Air/Wave Coupling to operations**

## NRL Monterey Plans for Tropical Cyclone Modeling using the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

**61****st**** Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, New Orleans, LA**
**6 March 2007**

**COAMPS****®**** is a registered trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory**