# Presentation: 137416

## NOAA and the International Polar Year A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board

- Dr. John A. Calder
- Director
- Arctic Research Office
- March 23, 2005

## Outline

- Purpose
- Issue
- Presentation of Briefing
- NOAA Coordination and Views
- Desired Outcomes

## Purpose

- To present status of international planning and NOAA’s plans for participation in the IPY and seek the views of the SAB on:
- Opportunities for demonstrating leadership
- Opportunities for external collaboration

## Issue

- What are the key issues that are called to the SAB attention?
- Can NOAA improve its visibility and leadership?
- Can NOAA improve external coordination?

## International Polar Year

- March 2007-March 2009 - 50 year anniversary of IGY
- Co-sponsored by ICSU and WMO – Joint IPY Committee (www.ipy.org)
- US National IPY Committee under NAS Polar Research Board
- Major IPY projects under development, built on national submissions

## IPY GOALS

- Understand polar processes and their global linkages
- Explore new scientific frontiers
- Increase ability to detect change
- Attract and develop next generation of scientists
- Excite and educate the public

## Current Status

- Nearly 900 individual ideas submitted in response to IPY call for Expressions of Intent (NOAA submitted 10)
- IPY Joint Committee seeking to identify the larger themes embedded in these submissions
- International and national coordination mechanisms under development

## NOAA Submissions to IPY

_**EXPLORATION**_
- 	1. Ocean Exploration in Polar Regions
_**OBSERVATIONS**_
- 	2. Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic
- 	3. International Arctic System for Observing the Atmosphere
- 	4. Polar stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations
_**PREDICTION AND MODELING**_
- 	5. Short-term Arctic Predictability (STAP)
- 	6. Advances in Satellite Products and Their Use in Numerical Weather Prediction
- 	7. Arctic Climate Modeling
- 	8. Arctic System Reanalysis
_**DATA, OUTREACH AND DECISION SUPPORT**_
- 	9. NOAA’s Data, Information, and Change Detection Strategy for the IPY
- 	10. Outreach and decision support for increasing adaptive capacity to climate change and variability in Alaska and the Arctic.

## NOAA Coordination Actions

- Coordination
- Internal - all Line Offices, resulted in 10 Expressions of Intent to IPY
- Interagency – Mahoney, Rosen at interagency fora
- International – IPY Open Consultative Forum, Arctic Science Summit Week
- Community – American Geophysical Union, American Meteorological Society

## NOAA’s Views and Actions

- What are NOAA’s views on the subject?
- NOAA desires to be a leader
- Offer to undertake project-level leadership for IPY
- Offer to participate in data and communication subcommittees
- NOAA FY2007 program guidance includes emphasis on IPY
- Arctic Ocean Observing System +$4.5M
- Arctic System Reanalysis +$1.8M
- Arctic Coastal Climatologies +$1.0M
- Alaska Climate Reference Network +$2.5M
- Alaska RISA +$1.3M
- Intensive Arctic Observatory Network +$1.6M (FY2008)

## Programmatic Issues

- How best to deal with interagency and international community
- Project-by-project
- Centralized NOAA IPY Point of Contact
- Final determination of IPY projects to be funded by NOAA and the entire international community
- Project coordination after funding decisions are made

## Desired Outcomes

- SAB reaction to NOAA’s role in IPY
- Does the SAB see other opportunities for NOAA to exert leadership in the IPY?
- Are there additional opportunities for improving coordination?

## 1. NOAA’s Office of Ocean Exploration will support interdisciplinary polar voyages of discovery to:

- map and explore the polar oceans at new scales,
- develop a more thorough understanding of polar  ocean dynamics and interactions at new levels,
- develop new sensors and systems, and
- share the excitement of discovery with the public.

- Image courtesy of Ian MacDonald

**Notes:**
The scientific community has repeatedly stressed the importance of exploring and better understanding the world’s polar regions. Recent reports from the US Ocean Commission and the National Research Council continue to highlight the polar regions as priorities areas for exploration. The NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration been a major contributor to Arctic exploration projects over the last few years. OE is very interested in partnering with other institutions during the IPY in pursuit of exploration priorities identified by the science community. 

## 2. Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic

- 2. Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic

**Ecosystem Change**

**Notes:**
NOAA has great interest in enhancing our understanding of the causes and impacts of recent changes in the Arctic, with a mission emphasis on the Pacific side.  Here we have concern over living marine resources, over climate impacts on the U.S. Arctic, and on climate and weather connections between the Arctic and U.S. mainland.

## 2. Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic

- CANADA

**CHINA, KOREA, JAPAN**

**Notes:**
NOAA has great interest in enhancing our understanding of the causes and impacts of recent changes in the Arctic, with a mission emphasis on the Pacific side.  Here we have concern over living marine resources, over climate impacts on the U.S. Arctic, and on climate and weather connections between the Arctic and U.S. mainland.
Satellite information indicates unusually high sea ice melt rates in this region and sea ice has retreated unusually far for the past 3 years.  We along with colleagues in Canada, Russia, China, South Korea, and Japan are discussing collaborative ship-based activities in this region during the IPY.  The yellow line shows the track of a joint US-Russian cruise in 2004 that we intend to repeat during the IPY. NOAA intends to establish a continuing presence in this region of possible permanent loss of seasonal sea ice cover, and determine how physical change will impact transport of water, salt, heat, and nutrients; biodiversity; ecosystems; and specific species of cultural, commercial, and management importance.
 NOAA’s Ocean Exploration Office is considering an expedition during the IPY timeframe to the deeper portions of the Arctic.

## Slide 16

**Notes:**
NOAA participates in the International Arctic Buoy Program and we are working toward expanded Arctic buoy technology to include a network of Ice Mass Balance buoys, shown here as red symbols, but also to include upper ocean observations.  Deployments of Ice Mass Balance Buoys in conjunction with upper ocean profilers are being called Automated Drifting Stations, which are beginning to emerge through combined efforts of NOAA, NSF, JAMSTEC and other international partners.  We anticipate a combined effort to deploy many more ADS during the IPY period and beyond.

## 3. Arctic Atmospheric Observatories

- To understand the Arctic atmosphere it is necessary to have detailed measurements of clouds, aerosols, radiation, water vapor, surface fluxes, as well as surface and upper air temperature, moisture, and wind measurements.
- Clouds and aerosols in the Arctic have a major influence on surface radiation budgets and resulting surface temperatures, ice ablation/melt rates, and the onset of the annual snow melt season.
- Major components of an Arctic Atmospheric Observatory are active cloud sensors, passive and in-situ aerosol sensors, broadband radiation fluxes (up and down), surface fluxes, spectral radiometry, and rawinsondes.

**Notes:**
Read the slide

## Summit, Greenland

**Summit, Greenland**

**Ny-Alesund, Svalbard**

**Notes:**
Over the long-term, NOAA intends to develop atmospheric observatories at key locations such as shown here.  We will continue to collaborate with DOE and its partners at Barrow, and are now working with Canada to install an observatory at Eureka with some effort also at Alert.  The Eureka observatory should be in full operation during the IPY.  Further expansion to other sites depends on the availability of resources or identification of a funding partner.

## 4. Polar Atmospheric Chemistry for Ozone Depletion and Greenhouse Gases

**NOAA will continue atmospheric monitoring at South Pole and Barrow for greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances, and aerosols, along with laboratory and field research into stratospheric change and ozone destruction and recovery. **

**NOAA will continue its support for cooperative monitoring projects and will welcome IPY scientists.**

**Notes:**
NOAA’s existing observatories at Barrow and South Pole will continue their observations of greenhouse gases, ozone depleting chemicals, and related variables. Identification of the ozone hole over the South Pole is one outcome of the IGY of the late 1950s.  Current operations are a legacy of the IGY and will continue through the IPY and beyond.  Much of the activity at our polar observatories consists of NOAA internal programs.  But it is important to note that the broader scientific community benefits not only from the data made available, but through support of science activities sponsored by other agencies.  NOAA will continue to make these opportunities available and welcomes scientists involved in the IPY.

## 5. Improving Short-term Arctic Forecasts and 	Understanding Teleconnections

**WMO-THORPEX PLANS FIELD PROGRAM DURING IPY**
*** ***
**1)****	****Utilize enhanced IPY polar observing system in NWP  **
**2)****	****Enhance atmospheric observations in NW Pacific**
- Targeted to improve Alaskan (and Northern Canadian) forecasts
- Study mid-latitude – polar interaction on daily time scale
**Evaluate effect of enhanced observing system on forecasts**
- 	Study combined effect of North Pacific & polar region observations on 2-3 day forecasts over polar regions of NA and on 3-14 day forecasts over NA, NH, Global domains
- 4) **Will lead to**
- 	Links between polar and mid-latitude weather process
- 	Improved targeted weather forecasts
- 	Improved sea ice and air quality forecasts
*** ***

**Notes:**
The World Meteorological Organization is one of the international cosponsors of the IPY.  Among its programs is THORPEX, which has interests throughout the globe, but has an Arctic sub-element that is intended to be conducted during the IPY.  NOAA and academic scientists are working together to plan the THORPEX-IPY observing period in winter of 2007-2008.  Through this activity, THORPEX aims to improve weather forecasts over north America and throughout the northern hemisphere.

## 6. Advances in Satellite Applications for 	Polar Studies

**Objectives**:
- Improve satellite retrieval science and develop new products
- Validate satellite products using in situ data collected during IPY
- Improve model assimilation of satellite products to improve forecasts in the high latitudes and globally
- Conduct retrospective analyses of satellite data to detect climate change
- Support other IPY projects with satellite products

- Polar satellite products help reduce forecast busts globally (MODIS polar winds in this case)

- New satellite sounders will provide high vertical resolution of the atmosphere and new spectral information for cloud property retrievals. (Moisture weighting functions shown here)

**Notes:**
Input from Jeff Key: Satellites are the most important data source for numerical weather prediction.  Recent studies have shown that satellite data covering the polar regions have a significant impact on mid-latitude forecasts.  We expect the use of high latitude satellite data to be even more important in the near future, as we develop new products from both existing and new sensors, and work to improve the assimilation of those products in weather and climate models.  This is what we (NESDIS) plan to do for IPY, in collaboration with the NOAA/NASA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. 

## 7. IMPROVING CLIMATE MODELS IN THE ARCTIC

**NCEP**
- NUMERICAL FORECASTS

- TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ADVECTION AND WINDS

**ETL:** ARCTIC ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATORIES

- SURFACE ALBEDO AND TEMPERATURE

**VALIDATION**

**FORCING**

**NESDIS**
- TOA IRRADIANCE  AND CLOUD RETRIEVALS

- SURFACE RADIATIVE AND TURBULENT FLUXES; PRECIPITATION

- CLOUD PROPERTIES

- Improve the physics of GCMs by taking advantage of the rich data to be derived from the Arctic Atmospheric Observatories and satellites
- Test single column models against the observations and apply knowledge gained to improve GCMs
- Share integrated dataset with research community

**GCM PHYSICS**

**GFDL SINGLE COLUMN MODEL**

- SURFACE VARIABLES AND ATMOSPHERIC RETRIEVALS

**Notes:**
Read the slide text on the right.  GCM = General Circulation Model
Tony Beesley will be in audience to help answer questions if needed.

## 8. Arctic System Reanalysis

- “Reanalysis” provides a physically consistent description of the climate system that can be used to detect change and provide attribution.
- No previous effort has focused on the entire Arctic region, nor have the models been formulated to account for uniquely Arctic processes.
- ASR will include not only atmospheric data and models, but also attempt to include sea ice and upper ocean to account for the tight coupling between them.
- The longer-term goal of the ASR is to evolve to an operational state in which these activities continue indefinitely for climate research and forecasting

**Notes:**
The interagency Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) has made Arctic System Reanalysis a key objective and NOAA intends to pursue the ASR during the IPY timeframe.
Development of a high resolution (30 km horizontal or finer) coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-terrestrial data assimilation system optimized for the Arctic region (north of 45oN, to include the complete terrestrial Arctic drainage). 
Use of this optimized system in conjuction with a quality-controlled assimilation data base (enhanced as much as possible through “data mining” efforts) in a reanalysis framework (the “Arctic System Reanalysis”, or ASR) in order to produce high-quality, physically consistent fields of climatically relevant variables extending back several decades, fostering Arctic climate research on seasonal to interdecadal time scales.
Evolution of the ASR into an operational analysis system with optimal near-real time data assimilation.  This effort will foster Arctic climate monitoring, provide improved short- to medium-range weather forecasts in the Arctic, and provide improved seasonal climate outlooks. 

## 9a. Data Management

- NOAA’s National Data Centers also serve as World Data Centers, a legacy of the 1957-1958 IGY. They and other global WDCs are an infrastructure to build upon to meet IPY data management objectives.

***Fundamental goal:****  Securely archive a baseline against which to assess future change. Ensure that IPY data are accessible and preserved for current and future users.** *

- Ensure that IPY projects follow IPY guidelines.  Make compliance simple. Offer tools, tutorials.
- Ensure that standards such as the Open Archival Information System (OAIS) Reference Model and the ISO19115 metadata standard are met
- Serve as clearinghouse and facilitator for data management issues.

**Notes:**
NOAA’s data centers include NCDC, NGDC, NODC and the NOAA-Affiliated National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, Boulder.  The NOAA Regional Climate Centers would also have a role to play, especially in focusing IPY information on regional issues.  These Centers and their international counterparts be responsive to needs of the IPY research community.

## 9b. Main Indicators in Arctic Change Detection Website PUBLIC RELEASE:  Nov 9, 2004 -- http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect 

- Highest 1/3
- Middle 1/3
- Lowest 1/3

- Large Changes in
- Recent Years
- are Highlighted
- in Red

**Notes:**
A variety of environmental variables having multi-decadal records have been obtained and organized into a table of indicators.  By viewing different data types in this way, the pervasiveness of change in the Arctic is revealed.  NOAA plans to continue and expand this analysis and invites any one with relevant data to join in this effort.  During the IPY, NOAA will make a special effort to work with scientists from other countries.

## 10. NOAA IPY Regional Climate Decision Support

- Meet demands for decision support in Alaska through an integrated, multi-disciplinary approach
- Expand the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program and Regional Climate Centers Program
- Integrate it with the NWS regional climate services program and the Alaska State Climatologist
- Collaborate with other Arctic countries to develop broader decision-support efforts and make a lasting contribution to IPY and beyond.

- IPY is a unique opportunity to develop an integrated Climate Regional Decision Support Program integrating **monitoring**, **data services**, **research**, **operational service** **delivery**, and **customer support**.

**Notes:**
The US Climate Change Science Program intends to increase its emphasis on application of science for societal benefit.  As one contribution to this effort, NOAA intends to integrate currently disparate activities into a Climate Regional Decision Support Program in Alaska during the IPY period.  In addition, NOAA will work with the Arctic Council and other groups to improve decision-support efforts throughout the Arctic region.  The NWS has already established a regional climate services program at the office in Anchorage and climate focal points in each WSO and WFO in Alaska to deliver climate-related products and downscaled climate forecasts.    Establishment of Alaska-specific regional climate center will require additional funding.