# Presentation: 051925

## WGIII: Geospace Impact

- BARTH, Janet L.
- XAPSOS, Michael
- HUDSON, Mary K.
- MAZUR, Joseph E.
- DeLAND, Matthew
- HAINES, Paul

- SLOCUM, Penny
- TURNER, Ron
- GILES, Barbara
- TYLKA, Allan J.
- Kirsten Lorentzen

## WGIII: Geospace Impact

- 1. What is the relationship between SEPs and the energetic particles in the magnetosphere?
- 2. How is SEP access to the inner magnetosphere determined during the transient phase?
- 3. How are SEPs trapped and subsequently lost in the inner magnetosphere?
- 4. What correlations are there between definable SEP parameters and corresponding effects on the atmosphere and is there a predictive capability?
- 5. What correlations are there between definable SEP parameters and corresponding effects on technological systems/human flight?

- Science questions:

## WGIII: Plan of Attack

- Focus on the Interfaces:
- Keep in mind the cross-disciplinary aspect of LWS, define and then provide those data products necessary for progress on “coupling” studies.

- Event Studies:
- Compare observed proton energy spectra to trapped proton models.
- Understand injection of SEP ions at low L-shells.
- Understand variability of SEP access in the polar caps

- Statistical Studies:
- Define set of parameters that uniquely characterize SEP events and are relevant for geospace/atmospheric/technology responses.
- Quantify relationships between these SEP parameters and the geospace/atmospheric/technology responses.

## WGIII: CDAW Progress

- Provide data products and theory for the improvement of space weather models.
- Provide data products for technology related event/anomaly databases.

- NOAA predict models: improved physical methodology/understandings.
- Composition/energy spectra as a function of time. Particularly for high energies.
- Worst case estimations w/ confidence levels, particularly high energies (>100MeV). For 11 CDAW events, why event progressed as it did ... could we have predicted, with what confidence ... how much worse could it have gotten.
- Better understanding of dynamics at geosynchronous orbit, for CDAW events.
- Validation of trapped particle models for MEO, for 12 CDAW events provide application data, perhaps perform validation with a few.
- Long term variation of “slot region” filing, for CDAW events.
- Duration of slot region populations, for CDAW events
- Dynamic solar particle cutoff latitudes, for CDAW events
- Contributions to anomaly/standard event archives - data, data, data.
- Prediction of “all clear”, speculations based on CDAW events.

## WGIII: CDAW Progress

- The dose behind heavy shielding increased a factor of 10 on 24 March 1991.

## WGIII: CDAW Progress

- Provide data products for progress toward understanding ozone and odd nitrogen depletions in the atmosphere.

**Known:**
-  Increased production of HOx  (H, OH, HO2) species and NOx species (N, NO, NO2). Factor of 2-5, lasting up to weeks.

- NOAA 14 SBUV/2 Northern Hemisphere polar ozone in ppmv before (July 13, 2000) and during (July 14/15) the SPE period at 0.5 hPa.  From Jackman et al., GRL, 2001.

## Currently, working toward identifying the important input parameters:Maximum flux: What proton energy is best indicator?Peak flux vs fluence: Which is more important?Time evolution:  More impact with fast rise time?Spectral shape:  Dependence on 10 MeV/100 MeV ratio?Location on Sun:  Leading edge vs trailing edge?Cutoff latitude:  Natural deviations from the 60o MLAT used in the models important?Seasonal variation:  Difference in input to polar cap?Orientation of IMF? Geomagnetic storms important?

**Currently, working toward identifying the important input parameters:**Maximum flux: What proton energy is best indicator?Peak flux vs fluence: Which is more important?Time evolution:  More impact with fast rise time?Spectral shape:  Dependence on 10 MeV/100 MeV ratio?Location on Sun:  Leading edge vs trailing edge?Cutoff latitude:  Natural deviations from the 60o MLAT used in the models important?Seasonal variation:  Difference in input to polar cap?Orientation of IMF? Geomagnetic storms important?

- WGIII: CDAW Progress

## WGIII: CDAW Progress

- Make the connection between solar dynamic conditions and the formation of new ion belts at low L-shells. When are conditions right?
- Make substantial progress toward understanding the physical processes behind the formation of new ion radiation belts.

## WGIII: CDAW Progress

- Do not yet understand differences in trapped particle composition or location

## WGIII: CDAW Progress

- Do not yet understand variation in the penetration depth for trapped SEP particles.

## WGIII: CDAW Progress

- Have not explored maximum energies obtained
- Requires tailored MHD simulations of each geomagnetic storm

## WGIII: CDAW Progress

- Preliminary energy spectra of new radiation belts associated with SEP events & shocks

## WGIII: CDAW Progress

- Iron: ~1-3 MeV/n

-  Compare SAMPEX proton energy spectra to trapped proton models

- Includes trapped anomalous cosmic rays

- Oxygen: ~1-8 MeV/n

## WGIII: Favored Events

| 4/4/2000 | 4/6/2000 ~-321 |
| --- | --- |
| 7/14/2000 | 7/15/2000 ~-300 |
| 11/08/2000 | ------ |
| 3/29/2001 | 3/31-1/2001 ~-358 |
| 4/10/2001 | 4/11-12/2001 ~-256 |
| 4/15/2001 | ------ |
| 9/24/2001 | 9/25-26/2001 ~-101 |
| 10/1/2001 | 10/3/2001 ~-182 |
| 11/4/2001 | 11/6/2001 ~-277 |
| 11/22/2001 | 11/24/2001  ~-213 |
| 5/22/2002 | 5/23/2002 ~105 |

- SEP date

- Storm

| ~Type B | Bz<0 |
| --- | --- |
| Type A |  |
| Type A |  |
| other | Bz<0 |
| other |  |
| Type B |  |
| Type A | Bz varies, waves |
| ~Type B |  |
| Type A | Bz<0, 60 nT |
| Type A |  |
|  |  |

- Source spectra

| p,  | ~606 |
| --- | --- |
| p, , Fe | ~1005 |
| none | ~900 |
| p,  | ~848 |
| p, , Fe | ~756 |
| none |  |
| Fe | ~740 |
| nothing | ~575 |
| Si, Fe | ~750 |
| p, , Fe | ~1003 |
| p, , O |  |

- trapping?

- Max SW speed (1AU)

- T1

- T2

- T6

- T3

- T5

- T4

- IMF

**Notes:**
Distinguish which are He3 enriched and which are not.
WGII has better spectra for FE but not as good for protons (proton data needs processing?)
Type A = roll over   Type B = power law      Type A - Ground level events - biggest events in terms 30MeV fluence, except Bastille

## WGIII: New Collaborations

**For the Geospace Impact group, every collaboration was a new collaboration:**
- Dartmouth/Aerospace for several new studies on the formation of ion belts during SEP events ... marrying the data with the modeling.
-  Aerospace/GSFC for connections between SEP spectral characteristics at source and for trapped populations.
- GSFC/Dartmouth for appreciation of the terrestrial source of seed population ions.
- SSAI/NRL/GSFC for SEP energy deposition into the atmosphere.
- Hampton Univ/SSAI/GSFC for connection between enhanced NOx production and enhanced loss of terrestrial products to space.
- GSFC/Aerospace cooperation for validating climate models for trapped protons with  SAMPEX data.
- Identified APL latitude cutoff model to support work by Xapsos/GSFC.

**Notes:**
Get list of NOAA radiation alerts slide

## WGIII: CDAW Summary

- Provide data products and theory for the improvement of space weather predict and nowcast models.
- Provide data products for technology related event/anomaly databases.
- Provide data products relevant for understanding ozone depletions as a result of SEP related odd nitrogen increases in the atmosphere.
- Make the connection between solar dynamic conditions and the formation of new ion belts at low L-shells. When are conditions right?
- Make substantial progress toward understanding the physical processes behind the formation of new ion radiation belts.

- As a result of these CDAW activities LWS will: