# Presentation: 498331

## Achieving 

*Sustainable *
*Stewardship*

- State of ASC:Address to the 2007 Principal Investigator MeetingDimitri KusnezovDirector, Office of Advanced Simulation & Computing

## A busy year

- ASSOCIATED PRESS
**5:59 p.m. February 19, 2007 **
- SAN FRANCISCO – A panel of scientific experts expressed skepticism about a Bush administration plan to revamp the nation's nuclear weapons arsenal with a warhead now on the drawing board.
- The panel, composed mostly of former Energy Department and nuclear-weapons lab executives, refused to endorse the proposal, saying that there is inadequate evidence that the current stockpile is deteriorating as the administration claims.
- The uncertainty about the warheads' lifespan “is serious and it's legitimate, but it's not yet empirical,” said the panel's chairman, physicist C. Bruce Tarter, a former director of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The lab has bid to oversee the development of the proposed new warhead.
- Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico is the other facility competing for the lead role in the development of the new bomb, dubbed the Reliable Replacement Warhead, or RRW.
- The Bush administration had planned to announce a decision several weeks ago on which lab's design would prevail, but unknown factors have delayed the decision.
- The experts presented their doubts before the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. They found many of the claimed benefits of RRW vague and uncertain, and said they will not be felt until some time in the distant future.
- “If there aren't numbers for costs or schedules, how do you know it's better than what you're doing?” Tarter wondered.
- Both labs have described their proposals for the new warhead as “conservative” blueprints meant to assure reliability without violating a moratorium on full-scale nuclear testing in place since 1992.
- That inability to test was one of the factors that concerned the scientists. “Certifying a new nuclear explosive package remains an unproven technical feat,” said Raymond Jeanloz, a panel member and University of California, Berkeley planetary scientist.
- But Gen. James Cartwright, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, which oversees U.S. nuclear forces, said RRW is vitally important.
- “If the policy is to have nuclear weapons, the policy ought to be to make them as secure as possible, as safe as possible. Anything less is irresponsible,” he said.

**The main objectives of FP7: Specific programmes**
- Knowledge lies at the heart of the European Union's Lisbon Strategy to become the "**most dynamic competitive knowledge-based economy in the world**". The '**knowledge triangle**' - **research, education** and **innovation** - is a core factor in European efforts to meet the ambitious Lisbon goals. Numerous programmes, initiatives and support measures are carried out at EU level in support of knowledge.
- The **Seventh Framework Programme (FP7)** bundles all research-related EU initiatives together under a common roof playing a crucial role in reaching the goals of growth, competitiveness and employment; along with a new **Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme (CIP)**, Education and Training programmes, and Structural and Cohesion Funds for regional convergence and competitiveness. It is also a key pillar for the **European Research Area (ERA)**.

**Europaeischer Forschungsrat ab 2007**Mit dem Start des 7. EU-Forschungsrahmenprogramms (7. FRP) 2006 wird auch der neu einzurichtende European Research Council seine Arbeit aufnehmen. Die Gruendung eines solchen Europaeischen Forschungsrats geht auf einen Vorschlag der Europaeischen Kommission innerhalb des Entwurfs fuer das 7. FRP aus dem Jahre 2005 zurueck. Ziel des European Research Council wird sein, junge Nachwuchswissenschaftler zu foerdern und bahnbrechende Grundlagenforschung in allen wissenschaftlichen und technologischen Feldern, auch in den Sozial- und Geisteswissenschaften, in Europa zu unterstuetzen. Dazu steht ihm ein Budget von 7 Mrd. € (2007-2013) zur Verfuegung. Ein unabhaengiger Wissenschaftlicher Rat aus 22 Fachmitgliedern prueft die Antraege und entscheidet ueber die Foerderungen bzw. Stipendienvergabe.Foerderlinien, Begutachtungsverfahren und Dokumente zum ERC unter:http://ec.europa.eu/erc/index_en.cfm

*A busy year*

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- Saturday, February 17, 2007 **Hybrid Warhead Panned** **By John Arnold** *Journal Staff Writer*    A senior Los Alamos National Laboratory weapons scientist says a program to develop a new kind of nuclear warhead will fail if the government takes a "frankenbomb" approach to its design.    Weapons designers at LANL and California's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory are competing to design the Reliable Replacement Warhead, which would replace existing warheads in the nation's aging Cold War-era arsenal.    John Pedicini, LANL's design team leader, believes LANL won the competition based on the technical merits of its design. But Pedicini wrote on a Web log that following the technical competition, federal nuclear weapons officials asked the rival labs to come up with a "plan of cooperation," including a hybrid warhead design that would include elements from both teams' plans.    "A hybrid design by inexperienced personnel, managed by committee, is not the best approach... The best appellation I have seen for such an approach is 'frankenbomb,' '' Pedicini writes in an entry posted on the site "LANL: The Corporate Story."    Noting that he was writing as a private citizen and not as a representative of the lab, Pedicini said that he has been told by "multiple highly placed sources, with ranks into sub-cabinet level" that LANL won the technical competition.    He added that there are some features of the Livermore design that are an advance over his own team's plan, and that he would incorporate those advances, should LANL win the competition.    "If this is what is meant by hybrid, then the outcome would be good," said Pedicini, who did not return phone or e-mail messages seeking additional comment.    Weapons designers were asked to come up with plans for a replacement warhead that could be deployed without underground nuclear testing. The teams submitted their designs last year to the Nuclear Weapons Council, an inter-agency panel of Department of Energy and Pentagon officials who decided last fall that the Reliable Replacement Warhead program should move forward.    The Bush administration's budget proposal for fiscal year 2008 calls for tripling program funding to $88 million.    But the weapons council has yet to name a lead design team, fueling speculation among lab workers and observers about the competition's outcome.    "There are a lot of rumors out there, and there are a lot of people who think they know what they're talking about. As I understand it, it's a very small group of people that really do know the situation and are discussing it, and that's the Nuclear Weapons Council," said National Nuclear Security Administration spokesman Bryan Wilkes.    LANL spokesman Kevin Roark said that Pedicini's comments were not made on behalf of the lab, but he declined to comment further.    Pedicini is the second senior LANL weapons designer to speak publicly this month, without lab management's permission, about the Reliable Replacement Warhead and nuclear weapons policy.    Joe Martz, LANL's Reliable Replacement Warhead project leader, told the San Francisco Chronicle that the U.S. should consider a nuclear weapons policy that would eventually eliminate the country's nuclear arsenal.    He also believes that it's unlikely LANL will win the Reliable Replacement Warhead competition, due to security lapses highlighted during a congressional hearing last month, according to a Chronicle article published Tuesday.    In his Web log post, Pedicini calls the Jan. 30 congressional hearing "a wild card whose influence I cannot gauge."    The Reliable Replacement Warhead is a key component of NNSA's plan to consolidate and modernize the nation's nuclear weapons complex.    Supporters say the new warhead design will be easier and safer to maintain and will offer more protection against unauthorized use. It will also allow the government to dismantle old weapons and ultimately reduce the size of the stockpile, NNSA officials have said.    However, critics say that programs to maintain and extend the life of the existing nuclear weapons have been successful. Going forward with a new warhead design is unnecessary and will undermine global nonproliferation efforts, they contend.

## Another Remarkable YearLeadership in Scientific Computation

**Integrated activities across campaigns led to successful completion of FY06 Level 1 milestone on Pit Lifetime Assessment**
**Delivered on 10-year, 100 teraflops commitment with ASC Purple and *****now Red Storm***
**New understanding of primary physics achieved in first month of operation on Purple *****(genesis of Thermonuclear Burn Initiative)***
**Record sustained computing performance on BG/L (>200 teraflops) applied to Pu aging**
**ASC technology enabled feasibility study of first RRW design, solution of physics and engineering designs electronically coordinated between labs and manufacturing sites**
**RRW design process provides glimpse into the complex “Responsiveness”**
**Application of casting code to designing RRW pit manufacturing processes**
**Increased confidence in our national nuclear security through improved predictivity of the physical processes in stockpile systems *****(W76-1, W88 MAR, B-61, Annual Certification and Assessment,...)***
**Significant improvements in accuracy, usability, and time to solution of modern 3D codes**
**Two new product lines, Red Storm and BG/L consistent with the President’s American Competitiveness Initiative *****(Supporting Office of Science siting of leadership class machines at Oak Ridge and Argonne National Laboratories)***
**Rapid response to emerging threats (DPRK) **
**Remarkable progress in large scale simulations at Alliance Centers**

## ASC & Complex 2030

*“**Increased confidence in warhead designs and demonstration of a responsive infrastructure will enable a reduction in total stockpile size”*

**Increased stockpile**
**diversity**

- 	Concepts basic to complex 2030:  transforming the stockpile, cost-effectiveness of the enterprise, integration and consolidation, and driving the S&T base.
- 	Complexity will increase during transformation as the stockpile diversity increases and hands-on test experience decreases.
*	**For the first time in the history of nuclear weapons, our nuclear deterrent may rely upon devices that, though carefully compared with the underground test data, have not been tested in their nuclear regimes.*

**Notes:**
Stockpile Transformation
Complex Integration
Complex Transformation
Promote S&T for assurance, dissuasion, and deterrence
Build Confidence

## LANL Designers’ Test Experience

**LANL Designers’ Test Experience**

## When validation replaces calibration

- Desired state:** Confidence in science-based simulations exceeds our confidence in simulations calibrated by underground test data **

## Thermonuclear Burn Initiative

- Thermonuclear Burn Initiative

- Back to basics
-  Leadership science
-  Complex multi-scale
-  Frontier computational science
-  National security
-  2012 commitment
-  No milestones – intellectual headroom

## ASC Roadmap

- www.nnsa.doe.gov/ASC

## Predictive Capability Framework (PCF) integration across NNSA central to Complex 2030

**Goal: Deliver improved and increasingly predictive capabilities to support stockpile needs and enable transformation of the complex into a responsive infrastructure**

**Integration of ASC, DSW, Science, Engineering, and ICF Campaigns modeled on ASC Roadmap**

***Tier 1 and 2 accomplishments ***

***High-level goals from ASC Roadmap ***

***Required increment in capability ***

**Incorporates existing roadmaps and strategies (e.g., Primary Assessment Strategy)**
**Defines by program needs the required capabilities (e.g., ongoing LEPs define current needs)**
**Provides close integration between experimental and computational activities **

## 2007-08 ASC Roadmap Outcomes and Outputs

**Focus area 1: Address national security simulation needs**
- 2008: Deliver a national code strategy (Ken Alvin)
**Focus area 2: Establish a validated predictive capability for key physical phenomena**
- 2007: *Thermonuclear Burn Initiative* collaboration
- 2012 horizon
- 2008: Deliver realistic plutonium aging simulations
- BG/L enabled
**Focus area 3: Quantify and aggregate uncertainties in simulation tools**
- 2008: Deliver a national verification and validation strategy (Karen Pao)
- 2008: Assessment of major simulation uncertainties
**Focus area 4: Provide mission-responsive computational environments**
- 2007: Initiate a new *National User Facility* model for capability supercomputing
- 2008: Implement seamless user environments for capacity computing

## Defense Programs Funding HistoryFY 2001 – FY 2008

- $ in Billions
- (Then year dollars shown in FY 2007 Dollar)

## FY 2008 Priorities

**Application of ASC codes to support certification, nonproliferation, attribution/forensics activities, and emergency response**
- Identify and characterize special nuclear material threat materials and devices
- Enable  forensic analysis of post-explosion radio nuclei debris
- By FY 2009, develop, implement, and validate a suite of physics-based models and high-fidelity databases in support of the full operational capability of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency National Technical Nuclear Forensics program.
**Computational surrogate for nuclear testing & weapons behavior – *****moving towards predictivity***
- Emphasis on quantification of confidence in the results of weapon simulation codes in order to inform Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) certification and assessment methodologies
- Establish a national UQ forum from various verification and validation communities to establish common framework for addressing UQ challenges and conduct peer reviews
- By FY 2009, develop a national verification and validation program strategy, which incorporates the tenets of uncertainty quantification.
- Second year of Thermonuclear Burn Initiative (TBI) – the 2012 ‘moon shot’ to understand a leading source of uncertainty.
**High-performance computing as a key enabler to the broad NNSA mission**
- Sequoia - platform targeted at development of uncertainty quantification (UQ) and validation critical to development of certification methods.
- Coordinated strategy with other agencies

*A slide from last week’s briefings to House and Senate staff*

## We have had broad impact
Thermonuclear Burn Initiative → Boost initiative
Roadmap → PFC
National User Facility model
nWBS → Defense Programs nWBS

Looking Ahead
Computing as a core competency beyond weapons certification
NN, DTRA, Office of Science, ...
RRW futures
Defining the national agenda for V&V methods in complex   computations
Software Strategy
Complex 2030 Challenges: Computing consolidation
Complex transformation within a level budget profile
Two National Academy of Sciences Studies; One JASON
Science Technology and Engineering 2030 Roadmap

**Thermonuclear Burn Initiative ****→ Boost initiative**
**Roadmap → PFC**
**National User Facility model**
**nWBS → Defense Programs nWBS**
**Looking Ahead**
**Computing as a core competency beyond weapons certification**
**NN, DTRA, Office of Science, ...**
**RRW futures**
**Defining the national agenda for V&V methods in complex   computations**
**Software Strategy**
**Complex 2030 Challenges: Computing consolidation**
**Complex transformation within a level budget profile**
**Two National Academy of Sciences Studies; One JASON**
**Science Technology and Engineering 2030 Roadmap**

**ASC Leading Change**

## The next 3 – 5 years

**Demonstrate** progress toward reduced phenomenology in the simulations with credible uncertainties, based on robust code verification and validation, in the prediction of device behavior.
**Apply** programming models to new architectures that make best use of their potential computing power for full weapons codes.
**Through a National Code Strategy**, ensure that the next generation of major physics and engineering codes reflect the national security needs of the United States, including attribution and secure transportation.
- Incorporate **Uncertainty Quantification as a formal step** in the analysis process and application of ASC simulations.
**Align the ASC workload with the ASC Roadmap** focus areas to meet the associated targets.  In an environment of steady to decreasing budgets, this will mean prioritizing current workload with new efforts.
- Continue operation of a capability platform as a **National User Facility** through the Capability Computing Campaign (CCC) process.  **Run codes that can scale across a large fraction of the platform** that are indicative of capability simulations.

- Building on our successes;  Defining the frontier where we lead

## Questions for you...

- How are we doing at attracting the next-generation of weapons physicists, engineers and computer scientists?
- What are we missing in our march toward a predictive simulation capability?
**Can we do more in the area of scientific exchanges among the weapon laboratories and across the larger scientific community?**
**Which NNSA applications can **
**    ****benefit from the ASC computing  **
**    ****core competency?**

**Let me know your thoughts, either during this PI meeting or via e-mail.**