# Presentation: 477492

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**Service Evolution****Concept of Operations**

**Rusty Billingsley**** – Chief of Science and Technology Services Division**
**Southern Region Headquarters, National Weather Service**

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**Service Evolution****Concept of Operations**

**Disclaimer:  The opinions and views in this presentation represent those of the speaker and not an official position of the National Weather Service nor anyone else!**

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**A brief history – Modernization of the 1990s**

**New technology – Doppler radars, automating observing equipment, new computer systems**

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**A brief history – Modernization of the 1990s**

**A different workforce and new offices**

## Slide 5

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**A brief history – Modernization of the 1990s**

**Our structure had been modernized, but our services lagged**
**“****Kind of a product factory – one way distribution”**

- IDZ011-013-080000-
- WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...(ZONES 401 402 403 404) INCLUDES PAYETTE NF AND BOISE NF-
- 930 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2003
- .TODAY...
- SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
- MAX TEMPERATURE.....56 TO 68...EXCEPT 67 TO 77 BELOW 4500 FEET.
- MIN HUMIDITY........30 TO 45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 23 TO 33 PERCENT BELOW 4500 FEET.
- 20-FOOT WINDS.......
-    VALLEYS..........NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
-    RIDGES...........WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
- HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
- LAL.................1.
- CHC WETTING RAIN....0 PERCENT.
- SMOKE DISPERSAL:
-   MIXING HEIGHT......5000-7000 FT AGL.
-   TRANSPORT WINDS....WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
-  .TONIGHT...

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**We needed to change!  Modernize our services.**

## Case for ChangeStatus Quo is Increasingly Dangerous

**Why?**
**Technological rate of change is **_**accelerating**_
**Weather data and information are becoming a commodity**
**Government is inherently bureaucratic...i.e., private industry will react faster to change than we will**
**We are increasingly a smaller piece of the weather enterprise**

## Case for ChangeStatus Quo is Increasingly Dangerous

**U.S. Postal Service Analogy**
**Who do you go to when you want to ensure delivery?  FedEx, UPS, DHL, USPS?**
**How much mail do you get at home (exclude junk mail)?  The office? **
**How often do you replace something that used to require standard mailing with another method? (electronic bill payment, email)**
**USPS uses FedEx to transport some of its mail**
**UPS is used for shipping by many companies because it has also taken over the logistics (packaging, inventory, distribution centers, etc)**
**Huge challenges faced by USPS over past few decades**

## Case for ChangeTechnological Rate of Change is Accelerating!

**Premise**** – change is occurring exponentially – but you expect it to be linear based on the “current” rate of change!**
**“...****because we're doubling the rate of progress every decade, we'll see a century of progress--*****at today's rate*****--in only 25 calendar years.”  ****Ray Kurzweil *****Law of Accelerating Returns***

**Accelerating Change**** – this isn’t your father’s rate of change!**

## Case for ChangeAn exercise in proof!

**Suppose its 1995 and you are predicting 2005:**
** ****Windows 95 and Internet Explorer 1.0 introduced**
** ****Netscape, Ebay, and Amazon.com come to life**
** ****eCERN holds a two-day seminar for the European Media (press, radio, TV), attended by 250 reporters, to show ****WWW.**** It is ****demonstrated on 60 machines, with 30 pupils from the local International High School helping the reporters "surf the Web"**** **
** ****Traditional online dial-up systems (Compuserve, America Online, Prodigy) begin to provide Internet access**
** ****6.5 Million Hosts, ****100,000 WWW Sites on internet**
** ****MP3 format comes of age**
** ****USB standard released**
** ****Red Hat Linux formed (actually 94)**
** ****Compaq Computer reaches number one world market share**
** ****OS2 Warp ships, PC DOS 7 ships**
** ****Intel introduces ****120 MHz Pentium**** processor**
** ****IBM unveils its new IBM ****PC 300 desktop systems, with 75-MHz and 90-MHz Pentium CPUs. Complete systems start at US$2000. **
** ****IBM buys Lotus**
** ****IBM releases the ThinkPad 760CD (120 MHz), with the industry's first 12.1-inch thin-film transistor display **
** ****Sun Microsystems introduces new Ultra 1 and Ultra 2 workstations**** **
** ****Sony Electronics introduces the 32-bit game system, PlayStation **
-  **Cell phone subscribers reach 34 million**
** ****Bombing of the Murrah Federal Building in OKC**
** ****NASDAQ closes above 1000 for first time**
** ****Iraq disarmament crisis**

## Case for ChangeSome Proof!

**For 2005, would you have predicted:**
** ****Homeland Security would be a big deal**
** ****You could put your entire song collection on a device as big as your thumb**
** ****A desktop could be had for a few hundred bucks**
** ****Microsoft and Dell would be the big players**
** ****Stock market crash after incredible bubble**
** ****Thumb drives**
** ****Satellite radio**
** ****Wireless everywhere**
** ****70+ emails a day**
** ****Reality TV would be a hit**
** ****Half a terabyte disk drives for 300 bucks (500 gig)**
** ****Laser printers for under a 100 bucks**
** ****DVDs, cell phones, digital cameras everywhere**
** ****The enormity of the Internet**
** ****GIS**
** ****Gridded forecasting (GFE)**
** ****E-commerce**

## Case for ChangeAll This Talk of Change!

**Accelerating Change**** – this isn’t your father’s rate of change!**

## Case for ChangeAll This Talk of Change!

**Accelerating Change**** – this isn’t your father’s rate of change!**

## Case for ChangeAll This Talk of Change!

**Bottom line:  ****Technological rate of change is accelerating...we underestimate it significantly...making any 2015 prediction suspect.**
**What we are likely to think will happen in 2015 should occur technologically by 2009.**

## Case for Change

**Weather information as a commodity **

**These guys produce very similar products to the NWS at a fraction of the cost**

**Forecasts for every 12kM across the Western U.S. out to 72 hours**
**Initial analysis at 6kM**
**Verification stats which show they are just as good as you at METAR sites**
**MOS at important spots to their customers**
**Downscaled elements to 90 meters for input into customer decision support models**
**Specific data formats which integrate directly into their customer’s applications**
**Point forecasts, specific element forecasts, etc.**
**And they do it all for about 500K a year! **

## Case for Change

**Weather information as a commodity **

## Case for Change

**Weather information as a commodity **

## Case for Change

**Weather information as a commodity **

## Case for Change

**Bottom line:  ****Technological rate of change is accelerating...**
**Weather information and data are becoming a commodity**

**Exciting...**

**...****or threatening?**

## Case for Change

**If everything is going to @#$@:  ****Why are our forecasters busier than ever?  Why does the phone seem to ring off the hook when the weather gets bad? Why are we being asked to do more and more?  **

**Customers/partners have increasingly**
** ****sophisticated requirements – they are also being inundated by an explosion of information**
_**They want our forecasters**_
_** **__**to make sense of it all for them!**_

## Case for Change

**They want our forecasters to make sense of it all for them!****  **
**Unprecedented support in the 2005 hurricane season (Louisiana EOC, Texas DEM, FEMA)**
**Unprecedented support in the 2005/6 fire season -Incident Meteorologist (IMET) support for Texas Forest Service for over 400 days**
**Huge increase in briefings/interpretive support for all types of events**
**~50% of SR WFOs said personal service was the most important product/service they provide**

## Case for ChangeWhat are we evolving into?

**A “Service Evolution” is already under way  **
**Interpreters of an explosion of weather data and information**
**High impact, decision support, all hazard services**
**A more integrated piece of the whole weather enterprise**
**An agency where day to day lines of responsibility and authority will become more flexible, depending on the situation**
**An agency dedicated to those that are responsible for life and property and those that disseminate that type of information **

## Case for ChangeWhat are we evolving into?

**The NWS advantage:****  **
**Saving lives and protecting property will continue to be a government responsibility**
**Other government entities with life and property responsibility will probably move along technologically like NWS**
**Other government entities will want unbiased weather and environmental information – they trust NWS**
**We are close to the decision-makers!**
** **

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**Case for Change**
**Weather data and day-to-day forecasts are a commodity**
**Technological rate of change is accelerating**
**Creating an explosion of available information**
**That decision makers must sift through to make life and property decisions**
**Our customer’s/partner’s requirements are changing**
**NWS Forecasters are already responding to a changing environment!**
**Bottom line:****  Our value will shift more and more to making sense (interpreting) of the vast complex of weather info and communicating the proper message to decision makers **

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**A Problem – the full plate**
**Budget under pressure – no new people**
**Must still provide most of the legacy products/services**
**Current resources committed at 100%**

**Two things to do:**
**Free up the resources**
**Continue evolving the services**

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**Focusing on **_**high impact events**_
**Shift from forecaster to **_**interpreter**_** of weather information**
**Focus on increasing support of **_**decision makers**_
**Shift from deterministic to mix of **_**probabilistic/deterministic information**_
**Find ways to become **_**more efficient**_
_**Collaborative**_** environment**
**Keep up with rapid pace of **_**technology**_
**Retain **_**our key advantage**_** - close proximity to our customers**

**We have a plan!**

## Key ShiftsMoving Beyond the Status Quo

- Phenomenon Based Forecasts
- Product Based Services
- Coordination
- Technology Tied
- National Weather Service
- Reactive Evolution
- Static Resource Allocation
- Weather-centric

- Impact Based Forecasts
- Decision Support Services
- Collaboration
- Technology Enabled
- Full Partnering Weather Enterprise
- Proactive continuous Improvement
- Dynamic Resource Allocation
- Earth System Science

- _From_

- _To_

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations“Free Up our Resources”

**Clustered Peer Prototype Project**
**A Clustered Peer is a group of equal offices that can readily realign resources through collaboration with each other, as well as other offices (National Centers, RFCs, etc.) to deliver products and services.**
**“...****prototype will answer questions on how we can **_**best gain efficiencies **_**while improving service”**

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**Clustered Peers - think of each cluster as large virtual Weather Forecast Office where any office can take responsibility for parts...or all...of the other office’s responsibilities**

**Main idea ****– free up existing resources to accomplish new Service Evolution goals?**

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**Focusing on **_**high impact events**_
**Shift from forecaster to **_**interpreter**_** of weather information**
**Focus on increasing support of **_**decision makers**_
**Shift from deterministic to mix of **_**probabilistic/deterministic information**_
**Find ways to become **_**more efficient**_
_**Collaborative**_** environment**
**Keep up with rapid pace of **_**technology**_
**Retain **_**our key advantage**_** - close proximity to our customers**

**Clustered Peer focuses on a small part**

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**Focusing on **_**high impact events**_
**Shift from forecaster to **_**interpreter**_** of weather information**
**Focus on increasing support of **_**decision makers**_
**Shift from deterministic to mix of **_**probabilistic/deterministic information**_
**Find ways to become **_**more efficient**_
_**Collaborative**_** environment**
**Keep up with rapid pace of **_**technology**_
**Retain **_**our key advantage**_** - close proximity to our customers**

**So where does this leave Service Evolution?**

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**Understand our partners**
**Primary decision makers**
**How they do their jobs**
**What they need to make these high impact decisions**
**Let our partners understand us**
**Understand how to leverage what we have to get there**
**Understand what we don’t have and how to get it (e.g., newer technologies)**
**Develop methods to be as close to the decision-maker as possible **
**“****Train like we fight”**

**Service Evolution - we are off to a good start...but corporately, we are just gaining traction!**

## Service EvolutionConcept of Operations

**Service Evolution****Concept of Operations**

**Questions?**

## Service Evolution

**Remote on-site support to wildfires and other all hazards incidents**
**Program is 80+ years old**
**63 IMETs**
**Most work in the west in the summer**
**Other incidents – oil spills, Space Shuttle recovery, Democratic and Republican National Conventions**
**Some currently in Australia supporting their wildfire season**

**The Incident Meteorologist**

## Service Evolution

**9:25 PM -** Was just told that the number of regional or state conference calls we have participated in over the past
-                  several days is 50...and we're not even close to the end yet!
**9:20 PM -** Just got off the conference call with the National Hurricane Center.  No major changes to come with this
-                  forecast package, other than reducing the intensity to 105 knots/120 mph.  Click here for a pic of the
-                  staff listening in.
**9:15 PM -** We have achieved hurricane status...64 knot/74 mph wind gust at 9:07!
**9:15 PM -** Just stepped out the back door of the office to take a look at conditions outside...needless to say it's
-                  ugly.  The rain's only moderate at worst, but blowing sideways...or swirling around in little eddies
-                  caused by anything in its way. Looking to the south, west and north (toward the city), not a light                  to be seen at all.
**9:10 PM -** This just in to the office...the Calcasieu Parish Office of Homeland Security and Emergency
-                  Preparedness has issued a boil water order for the parish.
**9:10 PM -** With the power out at the airport, the automated observing unit on the runway complex (the unit which
-                  supplies the official hourly weather for Lake Charles) has only about 30 more minutes of functionality
-                  before the backup batteries run out.
**8:50 PM -** We just received phone calls of thanks from Calcasieu Parish Director of Homeland Security, Dick
-                  Gremillion, and Congressman Charles Boustany. Glad we can live up to their high expectations!
**8:35 PM -** The U.S. Geological Survey is reporting an earthquake, magnitude 5.0, in the Gulf of Mexico, 530 miles
-                  south of Brownsville...click here for their report.
**8:30 PM - **The Lake Charles doppler radar is back online and is showing the strongest winds yet on their way to
-                  Southwest Louisiana...estimated at 70 to 80 knots (roughly 80 to 90 mph).
**8:20 PM - **Forgot to mention that at 7:30, commercial power to the build

**Instant Comms: Lake Charles Blog – Hurricane Rita**

## Service Evolution

- 00:44:30] iembot BMX issues Tornado Warning for Clay [AL] till 7:30 PM CST
- [00:47:34] nwsbmx4 MGM Market...signature looking strong....some of the best of the night near autaugaville... [00:47:42] nwsbmx4 go to shelter! [00:52:25] waka-1 just did update [00:52:32] waka-1 great hook on our radar [00:53:13] iembot BMX cancels Tornado Warning for Dallas [AL] [00:55:48] --- abc3340wx-4 has become available [00:57:41] wbrc-1 BMX you want to keep this Clay storm going ? [00:58:06] nwsbmx4 it's riding the county line... [00:58:08] nwsbmx4 we [00:58:18] nwsbmx4 we're between a rock and a hard place on that one. [00:58:40] nwsbmx4 holding on elmore county right now...Autauga EMA has no reports... [00:59:29] iembot 15 Ne Selma [Autauga Co, AL] emergency mngr reports TORNADO at 05:20 PM CST -- trees down cnty rds 222, 37, 39, 16. structural damage mobile home, shed, church on cnty rd 222. see earlier report 10n selma. [00:59:30] nwsbmx4 it's definitely more impressive off of MXX... [00:59:46] nwsbmx4 not quite as sharp a circulation as we were tracking... [00:59:52] nwsbmx4 but still a good meso... [01:00:47] coxradio-1 Clay County EMA Office reports at 7 PM, no sightings or damage reports so far in Clay County [01:03:55] nwsbmx4 thank you for the report...we just heard of small hail in clay...smaller than pea size. [01:07:03] nwsbmx4 contemplating what to do with autauga storm...new reports...but storm is holding together...

**Instant Messaging: Birmingham During Tornado Outbreak**

## Service Evolution

**Web Briefings for Emergency Managers**

## Service Evolution

**Briefing – Louisiana EOC – Hurricane Katrina**