# Presentation: 210361

## Use of Hurricane Forecast Information by the Public

- Jay Baker
- Department of Geography
- Florida State University

## Data

- Asking people how important specific factors are in their evacuation decisions
- Asking open-ended questions about why people evacuate or don’t
- Knowledge of watch and warning
- Responses to hypothetical threat scenarios
- Use of forecast graphics
- Beliefs about forecast accuracy

## Data

- Asking people how important specific factors are in their evacuation decisions
- Asking open-ended questions about why people evacuate or don’t
- Knowledge of watch and warning
- Responses to hypothetical threat scenarios
- Use of forecast graphics
- Beliefs about forecast accuracy

## Data

- Asking people how important specific factors are in their evacuation decisions
- Asking open-ended questions about why people evacuate or don’t
- Knowledge of watch and warning
- Responses to hypothetical threat scenarios
- Use of forecast graphics
- Beliefs about forecast accuracy

## Data

- Asking people how important specific factors are in their evacuation decisions
- Asking open-ended questions about why people evacuate or don’t
- Knowledge of watch and warning
- Responses to hypothetical threat scenarios
- Use of forecast graphics
- Beliefs about forecast accuracy

## Data

- Asking people how important specific factors are in their evacuation decisions
- Asking open-ended questions about why people evacuate or don’t
- Knowledge of watch and warning
- Responses to hypothetical threat scenarios
- Use of forecast graphics
- Beliefs about forecast accuracy

## Data

- Asking people how important specific factors are in their evacuation decisions
- Asking open-ended questions about why people evacuate or don’t
- Knowledge of watch and  warning
- Responses to hypothetical threat scenarios
- Use of forecast graphics
- Beliefs about forecast accuracy

## Asked in Frances How Important Specific Factors Were  in Evacuation Decisions

## Asked in Frances How Important Specific Factors Were in Evacuation Decisions

## Open ended question: What made you decide to go someplace safer?

- Severity of the threat
- Strength of the storm
- Likelihood of being hit
- Advice from officials
- Information from media, others
- Other

## Mentioned NHC Watches or Warnings as a Reason for Evacuating

| Charley | 4% |
| --- | --- |
| Frances | 3% |
| Ivan | 5% |
| Jeanne | 1% |

## Mentioned Advice from NWS/NHC as a Reason for Evacuating

| Charley | 11% |
| --- | --- |
| Frances | 9% |
| Jeanne | 10% |

## Aware of When Watches and Warning Are Issued(Post-Ivan, Morrow and Gladwin)

|  | 
LA | 
AL | 
MS | 
NW FL | 
FL Keys | 
TOTAL |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Watch | 63 | 63 | 64 | 60 | 70 | 62 |
| Warning | 40 | 35 | 43 | 40 | 41 | 40 |

## Earlier Knowledge of Watch and Warning Definitions

- Mississippi after Camille
- Watch		76%
- Warning	71%
- NW Florida after Eloise
- Watch		87%
- Warning	83%

## Threat Factors are Confounded with One Another in Time

- Proximity
- Track
- Watch/Warning
- Probabilities
- Intensity
- Media Attention
- Evacuation Orders

## Importance of Threat Factors in Responses to Hypothetical Hurricane Threats

## The Forecast Track and Graphics(the Skinny Black Line)

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## Perceived Accuracy of NHC Forecasts

- 24-hr Position Error
- 24-hr Arrival Time Error
- 24-hr Intensity Error

- Florida Keys after Michelle
- Texas and Louisiana after Lili
- Eastern North Carolina after Isabel

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