# Presentation: 681024

## The First AIDE ParadigmIntegrated Acquisition Analysis

**Presented to**
**NASA Cost Analysis Symposium**
- Mainstay Software Corporation
- March 11, 2004

## Dare to be the Skunk

## Cost AnalysisWhat’s New/ What’s Not

- CADRi
- Integrated Cost and Risk
- Probabilistic Risk Analysis
- Elimination of Stovepipes

- NOT!!

## Cost AnalysisWhat’s New/ What’s Not

- NEW!!

- Parametric Estimating
- Collaborative Engineering
- JPL
- Aerospace Concept Design Center
- CRIFCON
- Risk Modeling

## Concept Representation Limitations

- Boeing
- Parametric Estimating
- Collaborative Engineering
- CRIFCON

## Representational Limitationsre Cost Analysis

- Stovepipes
- Spreadsheets
- “Let’s do a layout of the elements and put into a spreadsheet”, Wayne Johnson
- PowerPoint
- Electronic Data Transfer
- Parametric Modeling???

## Develop Selective Amnesia 

## Develop Selective AmnesiaElectronic Data Transfer 

## Electronic Data Transfer

- Step-by-Step, Incremental, Time Consuming Process

## Remote Data Access

- Real-time, Immediate Process

## Develop Selective AmnesiaSpreadsheets 

## Spreadsheet Paradigm

- FY07

- FY09

- Total

- FY08

- NR

- Rec

- 150

- 900

- 1,150

- 275

- 225

- 650

- 1,370

- 3,420

## Page Paradigm

- Program

- CEV

- Start Date

- 7/15/07

- Mission:
- To transport people and supplies to the
- Moon and then onward to Mars. Total
- NR costs = $650; Rec costs = $3,420.

## Page Paradigm

**Page Paradigm**

- Program

- Mars Rover

- Start Date

- 2/01/01

- Mission:
- To explore Mars.

- FY01

- FY03

- Total

- FY02

- NR

- Rec

- 80

- 90

- 250

- 110

- 290

- 600

- 940

- 100

## Develop Selective AmnesiaStovepipes 

## Procurement Life Cycle

- Proposal
- Pricing

- Estimating

- Estimating
- History

- EVMS

- Project
- Control

- Project
- Planning

**Notes:**
The Procurement Life Cycle identifies the tasks performed by contractors (outer loop) and those performed by customers  (inner loop).  Contractors estimate so they can propose.  Once award is made, they plan and control the project and produce Earned Value data where applicable.  From the ongoing cost, technical and programmatic data, they create estimating history that they can use, in conjunction with analogous data from other projects, for improving the next estimate.

Contractors electronically pass to customers their proposals and their EVMS data.  The customer (Government) does their own proposal analysis, EVMS analysis and creates their own history database for use in their own estimates and sanity checks of contractor estimates.

The following slides provide a more detailed discussion of each of these tasks in the context of the three phases of acquisition analysis -- Pre-Award, Execution, Post-Execution.  This discussion will reveal the specific elements of the various tasks and the way in which current products could integrate with one another to achieve a comprehensive methodology that is as cost effective as it is beneficial..

## Acquisition Analysis Integration

- Analysis

- Cost
- History

**Acquisition Analysis Integration**

- RISK

## Acquisition Analysis Integration

- Analysis

**Acquisition Analysis Integration**

- Cost
- History

- Cost
- History

- Cost
- History

- Cost
- History

- Budget
- Fin Mgt

- Budget
- Fin Mgt

- Budget
- Fin Mgt

- Budget
- Fin Mgt

## Eliminate Barriers

- Analysis

- Hours,
- Dollars

- Cost
- History

- Budget
- Fin Mgt

**Eliminate Barriers**

- Budget
- Fin Mgt

- Budget
- Fin Mgt

- Budget
- Fin Mgt

- Budget
- Fin Mgt

- Budget
- Fin Mgt

- Cost
- History

- Cost
- History

- Cost
- History

- Cost
- History

## The Cost-Risk Feedback ContinuumA System of Cost Systems linked together in sequence by the same risks 

**Perform Cost/**
**Benefit Trades**
**(CAIV)**

**Build Reqmts/**
**Function /**
**WBS Matrix**
**(CARD)**

**Develop Ref**
**Point Cost &**
**Schedule**
**Estimate**

**Assess WBS**
**Technical**
**Risk**

** ****Translate Risk into**
**Cost /Schedule**
**Impacts**

**Develop RFP**
**EVM & LCCE**
**Contract Update**
**Requirements**

**Review Cost**
**Proposal**
**During Source**
**Selection**

**5**

**4**

**3**

**2**

**1**

**12**

**9**

**11**

**10**

**EVM Report**
**Analyses**

**Update Cost**
**Estimate**
**& Cost / **
**Sched-Risk**
**Assessment**
** **

**Assist in**
**End-of-Contract**
** ****Data**
**Analysis**
** **

**Evaluate Cost**
**& Schedule**
**Models**
** **

**(Key**
**Bridging**
**Event)**

_**Feedback is Key**_
**(Electronic approach is proposed)**

**The Continuum **
**environment provides feedback for cost-risk management **
**to evolve**

**Participate**
**In Post-Contract**
**Award Meeting**

**Notes:**
	The flow of cost-risk feedback information not only flows in a simple sequence from step to step in the implementation of the Continuum, but there can and should be a dynamic flow of information between many Continuum steps during, after and before subsequent efforts as illustrated in Fig. 17 below.  	

Examples of feedback between Continuum steps:

	- CAIV trades inform RPE, tech risk, and tech risk-to-cost impact steps;
	- CPR step may require CAIV trade, which may prompt an update to CARD due to requirement or performance level changes,
           which may require an adjustment to the basic RPE
	- Cost estimator gets feedback from end-of-contract CPR cost data to update his model for improved future estimates
	- Cost estimator needs latest information on risk of a WBS element he estimated 9 months ago (for example) and contacts 
	  the CPR analyst monitoring the cost performance of that WBS element on an ongoing contract.  CPR analyst, who has 
	  electronic access to contractor’s EVM system’s work package that has that high risk WBS element in it, gives the cost 
           estimator electronic access to view current cost performance of that WBS element giving the cost estimator new insight on
           its risk for translation into cost impact;
	- Insight for translating risk into cost impacts also comes from step 11 (technical risk-driven and external programmatic-
           driven risk) and 12, final end-of-contract actual cost CPR data on cost-risk performance of high and medium risk WBS
           elements; 
	-  Step 11, end-of-contract technical risk-driven and external programmatic-driven risk, informs the team developing the
	   narratives for Data Requirements for RFP solicitation documents;
	- Step 11, end-of-contract technical risk-driven and external programmatic-driven risk, informs the team reviewing the
	  bidder cost proposals for bidder past performance credibility relative to cost proposal claims;
	- Step 5, translation of risk into cost impacts informs Step 8, IBR visit, by ability to present to contractor control account
 	  managers the risks identified by government team in the development of the cost-risk for contractor acknowledgement
	  of responsibility to manage those risks;
	- Step 9 informs Steps 11 & 12 with cost performance cost-risk WBS element data, technical risk-driven and external 
	  programmatic-driven cost growth causes which can be used to create calibration factors for use during source selection. 
	- Step 9 data from CPRs can also be useful to cost estimators updating their cost models. 
	- Step 10, updates to RPE and cost-risk informs Steps 3,4,& 5 with an updated cost and cost-risk assessment;
	- Step 10 also informs the CPR Format 5 since any changes to initial cost-risks tracked in EVM system will be identified on
	  Format 5.  These changes could represent an elimination of tracking of some medium or high risk WBS element due to
 	  successfully meeting the risk challenges and/or adding a new medium or high risk WBS element for special tracking due
	  to unexpected poor performance discovered during the effort;

## Data

- EVMS Data
- Schedule Data
- Technical Data
- Programmatic Data
- Financial Data
- Success Factors
- Analysis of Alternatives Data
- Change Order Data
- Overhead/Burden Data
- ICE Data
- Government Budget Data
- Spending Profile

**Notes:**
This chart provides a short list of some of the types of data that would be required for each activity.  The complexity of the network within an enterprise becomes even more problematic due to the mass of data that is important (that data which is important at one level or at one point in time may not be for other circumstances) and the need to filter out data that is useful from the sheer volume that is or could be available.

## Analytical Processes

- Hierarchical Integration
- Network Integration
- Legacy Data Integration
- What-If Analysis
- Modeling
- Decision Support
- Graphs, Gantt Charts, etc.
- Tabular Presentations
- Text, Numbers
- Briefings

**Notes:**
The processes that must be applied across the enterprise to the range of data further complicate the issue.  Typically, a different software system is required to optimize the results of different processes.  Genuine optimization can be achieved only when all data that might be useful is captured, filtered properly and efficiently, and made available throughout all aspects of the enterprise for assessment, analysis, and modeling regardless of the process or processes that must be applied to achieve the desired results. 

## Develop Selective AmnesiaData Access 

## Current Environment

**Notes:**
Projects (PJ-1 – PJ-N) contain much of the relevant data that is needed for assessment and analysis. In addition to project-specific data, there is relevant data that needs to be captured at other levels (Program, Thrust, etc.).  The key of an EIS is to capture all relevant project data on a regular basis and to pro-rate it to lower levels and aggregate it upward according each of the desired perspectives – Program, Thrust, Initiative, etc. – and then to enable “what-if” scenarios to be portrayed to facilitate improved analysis leading to better decision making.  This chart demonstrates, at a very high level how quickly the process becomes complex and difficult to understand, let alone model, without the aid of a computer. 

## Enterprise Environment

- CP1

- CP2

- CP3

- CP4

- CP5

- CP6

- CP7

- CP8

- CP9

- CP10

**Notes:**
Projects (PJ-1 – PJ-N) contain much of the relevant data that is needed for assessment and analysis. In addition to project-specific data, there is relevant data that needs to be captured at other levels (Program, Thrust, etc.).  The key of an EIS is to capture all relevant project data on a regular basis and to pro-rate it to lower levels and aggregate it upward according each of the desired perspectives – Program, Thrust, Initiative, etc. – and then to enable “what-if” scenarios to be portrayed to facilitate improved analysis leading to better decision making.  This chart demonstrates, at a very high level how quickly the process becomes complex and difficult to understand, let alone model, without the aid of a computer. 

## Develop Selective AmnesiaSoftware Development 

- “It is impossible to underestimate software costs” – Don McKenzie

## Software Database  

- Time

- Interface

- Database Development

**Notes:**
Traditional approaches to this process would include lengthy database design and development, followed by database maintenance as needs change.  As the database development evolves in the traditional situation, interface development would begin slowly and become more prominent as database development winds down.  Only when database and interface development is complete, in the conventional environment, can the user begin to derive value from the process.  Typically, for a significant project, the design/development process requires months to years to complete.

## Effective Database Design	

- Data Schema
- User Interface
- Query Functionality
- Flexible Reporting

**What if it Were All Unnecessary**

**Notes:**
These are the specific steps that would be involved in the database design/development process.  Wouldn’t it be nice if they were not necessary anymore?

## FirstAIDE Methodology

**User Interface**
-  Data Schema
- Query Functionality – Ad Hoc
- Flexible Reporting – Ad Hoc

**Just Create t****h****e Interface!!**

**Notes:**
With FirstAIDE, they are not necessary; the process changes dramatically – for the better – due to the new FirstAIDE paradigm.  With FirstAIDE, user interface is all that is ever created; and that can be created by anyone.  The user him(her)self can do it without computer technical knowledge or support, or can do a part of it and turn it over to someone else whenever he/she wants.  With FirstAIDE, no one (user or technical person) ever creates the data schema; that is done automatically by FirstAIDE as a result of the interface.  FirstAIDE does not provide a reporting view into a pre-created database, as is traditional; instead, the database structure is created by FirstAIDE as the user portrays what he/she wants to see.  Queries and reporting can be done as needed, on an ad hoc basis, and/or saved for future use.  As a result of all these differences, the user can begin doing work virtually immediately as he/she creates the interface or as it evolves in accordance with his/her desires in the hands of another non technical person.  All the time and resources traditionally spent are unnecessary, and results begin to be seen immediately rather than after a lengthy delay.

## Traditional Approach

- How to/What to Do

- Design DB

- Develop DB

- Capture Data

- Integrate Data

- Modify DB

- Aggregate/Analyze Data

- Select Tool

**Notes:**
These are the detailed steps necessary under the traditional approach.  Note that the real data related processes occur late in the time frame shown, well after design/development is undertaken.

## First AIDE ApproachPhase I

- How to/What to Do

- Modify DB

- Select Tool

**Notes:**
With FirstAIDE, design/develop/modification of the database schema are not done at all except by FirstAIDE itself, all transparent to the user.  FirstAIDE actually aids in definition of the “how to do/what to do” portion of the process, and supports the process as needs evolve.  Time and resources traditionally expended are saved, the real data-related processes move forward in time so that meaningful results actually occur far earlier with far less expenditure of resources, and the process supports users whose needs change or whose appreciation of needs change over time – as is the case with virtually all users.

## First AIDE ApproachPhase ICost, Schedule Impacts

**First AIDE Approach****Phase I****Cost, Schedule Impacts**

- How to/What to Do

- Select Tool

- Capture Data

- Integrate Data

- Evolve DB

- Normalize/Analyze Data

**Notes:**
This slide merely shows how the meaningful activities move forward in time and how the concept of database modification becomes, with FirstAIDE, database evolution, a more effective methodology that results merely from a modification in user interface.

## Alternative ApproachPhase IICost, Productivity Impacts

**Alternative Approach****Phase II****Cost, Productivity Impacts**

- How to/What to Do

- Select Tool

- Integrate Data

- Normalize/Analyze Data

- Evolve DB

**Notes:**
Phase II of an EIS for NIMA, where contractors provide the preponderance of data that feeds the EIS, is more effective access to contractors’ data.  With FirstAIDE, Government pages can merely “point to” Contractor pages which, in turn, act as interfaces to Contractor corporate data.  Thus, changes to Contractor data update Contractor pages which, in real-time and without traditional file transfer processes, update Government pages within the EIS.  This is far more cost-effective, less program-specific, and more meaningful since data is available as it occurs.  From a broader perspective, this same approach applies equally well to program management and change order needs as it does to the more comprehensive EIS network of activities and needs.  The same exact process creates benefit throughout the organization, not just to a single aspect of the organization.

## First AIDE

- Flexible
- Build as Need
- Fully Integrated, Totally Dynamic
- Totally Customizable
- Build Only Interface – Pages
- Integrate Legacy Data from Multiple Sources
- World-Wide Collaboration
- Person-to-Person
- Real-Time, Interactive Modeling
- Automatic, Real-Time Updates from Contractor Data

**Notes:**
These are the key elements of FirstAIDE that enable the process discussed in the previous slides.

## Relevance

- Cost
- Collect data once, as process occurs – not later
- Speed
- Development, Data Access
- Integrate with Other Agency Data, Multiple Models
- Real-time, Ongoing Data Access
- Collaboration
- Facilitate Ad Hoc Reporting, Customization

## Develop Selective Amnesia

## Develop the Future