# Presentation: 003656

## Electricity Requirementsfor a Digital Society

**Walter S. Baer**
**RAND**
**baer@rand.org**
**NREL Energy Analysis Seminar**
**June 12, 2003**

## Project Objective and Approach

**Objective: Assess the nation’s electricity needs as the U.S. evolves toward a digital economy and society**
**Approach:**
**Identify key ICT drivers and likely impacts**
** ****ICT= Information & Communication Technology**
**Develop 20-year scenarios with alternative paths of ICT development and use**
**Evaluate scenario implications for electricity consumption and supply**

## What Characterizes a Digital Society?

**Universal access to ICT equipment and services**
**Pervasive use**
**24-7 availability**
**“****always on”**
**“****anytime, anyplace”**
**“****death of distance**”
**ICT becomes embedded and invisible**
**Public trust in ICT networks for mission critical functions**

## Outline

**Information and communications technology (ICT) scenarios**
**Implications of scenarios for U.S. electricity use**
**Implications of scenarios for U.S. electricity supply**
**Study conclusions and recommendations**

## Why Focus on Hard-to-Predict Long Term Developments?

**This is not a 20-year forecasting exercise**
**Scenarios depict ICT drivers of electricity use and the uncertainties surrounding them**
**Scenarios can reveal mismatches between ICT-driven needs and energy technology availability**
**Scenarios can inform R&D decisions and suggest hedging strategies**** **

## Scenarios Contrast Likely ICT Trendsfrom Uncertain Trends

**Examples of **_**probable**_** ICT trends:**
**Moore’s Law holds for at least 10 more years**
**Wireless networks become ubiquitous**
**Networked sensors and devices proliferate rapidly**
**Examples of **_**plausible**_** but uncertain trends:**
**Cities build ICT-rich Intelligent Transportation Systems**
**Telework leads to significant population dispersal**
**E-commerce cuts demand for commercial retail space   **

## Recurring Themes in ICT Development

**Contradictory trends proceed simultaneously**
**Hard and soft infrastructures reinforce each other**
**Technologies become invisible as they proliferate**
**Technology bottlenecks move from hardware to software to human factors**
**Adoption/diffusion time, not technology, is the primary rate limiter**
**Unplanned and mostly unintended consequences dominate long-term outcomes**

## Scenario Development Aided ByFocusing on Two Driving Dimensions

**We selected these dimensions:**
**	****1.****	****Level of ICT use and trust**
**Use more important than technology**
**Use correlated with trust and confidence**
**	****2.****	****Centralized or distributed control**
**Important both for ICT and energy systems**
**Choices lead to different evolutionary paths**

## ICT Common Scenario, 2001-2006

- Locus of Control

- Level of Use & Trust

- Centralized                                                                     Distributed

- Low                                                     High

- 2001

- 2006

## Four ICT Scenarios Through 2021

## 2021 Reference Scenario

**2001-2006 trends extended and/or modified:**
**Moore’s Law slows after 2015 for computing and storage, but not for optical bandwidth**
**Smart embedded devices, voice control, complex software agents, biometric ID, MEMS in general use**
**Relatively high use of and confidence in the Net**
**Balance between centralized and distributed control, although more distributed than in 2006**
**ICT problems and issues persist, but U.S. society has achieved generally workable solutions**

## “ Zaibatsu” 2021

**Higher ICT use, more centralized control**
**Large corporate conglomerates own ICT infrastructure, dominate e-commerce and other ICT applications**
**Emphasis on wired over wireless infrastructure**
**Most population, GDP growth in cities and suburbs**
**Investment in intelligent transportation systems eases commuting, results in less telework than Reference**
**Tight security, harsh laws keep cybercrime controlled**
**Very little privacy, but accepted by most people**
**More emphasis on grid, somewhat less on DER**

## “Cybertopia” 2021

**Higher ICT use, distributed control**
**ICT infrastructure and Net services operated by mix of large and small enterprises**
**Emphasis on wireless over wired infrastructure**
**More growth in small towns and rural areas**
**More telework, distance learning, telemedicine**
**More substitution of e-commerce for store visits**
**Very large deployments of tiny wireless sensors**
**Technology keeps Net secure, lowers cybercrime**
**More emphasis on DER, somewhat less on grid**

## “Net Insecurity” 2021

**Loss of public trust in Net leads to lower usage**
**Public Net peaks around 2012 and then declines due to persistent, unresolved security problems**
**massive identity theft and loss of user data**
**penetration of home networks and firewalls**
**destruction, spoofing of information on public Net**
**viruses, malicious code hard to counter**
**Less telework, B2C e-commerce, medical monitoring**
**Consumers invest heavily in standalone ICTs, one-way media, home network “islands” unconnected to Net**

## Comparing the 2021 Scenarios

**	****	****Reference****	****	****Cyber-****	****Net**
_**Item**_** ****	****	**_**Scenario**_**	**_**Zaibatsu**_**	**_**topia**_**	**_**Insecurity**_
**Digital TV hh (%) ****	****95****	****98****	****98****	****99**
**Adult Net users (%)****	****92****	****98****	****95****	****80**
**Households on Net (%) ****	****92****	****98****	****95****	****50**
**Full/part-time teleworkers (mil)****	****40****	****30****	****60****	****20**
**Devices on Net (billion)****	****4-6****	****5-10****	****>15****	****< 1**
**Big firms using e-commerce (%)****	****98****	****99****	****98****	****90**
**Consumers using e-commerce(%)****	****88****	****95****	****95****	****25**
**Hholds with home networks (%)****	****90****	****95****	****95****	****80**
**Medical monitoring on Net****	****yes****	****more****	****more ****	****little****	**

## Outline

- Information and communications technology (ICT) scenarios
**Implications of scenarios for U.S. electricity use**
- Implications of scenarios for U.S. electricity supply
- Study conclusions and recommendations

## ICT Affects Electricity Consumption in Three Different Ways

**	****1.****	****Electricity use by ICT devices in all sectors**
**	****2.****	****ICT contributions to energy efficiency and ****	****	****energy management in all sectors**
**	****3.****	****Changes in electricity use due to ICT-related ****	****	****individual and societal changes**
**e.g., telework, e-commerce, videoconferencing**
**changes differ in different sectors**
**these are the most important changes in the long run and the most difficult to assess analytically**

## Powering Digital Devices Will Have  Modest Impact on Total Electricity Use

**Our 2001 baseline of 118 TWh for computer, office and network equipment is well below some prior estimates**
**Growing numbers of ICT devices in scenarios offset by**
**more energy-efficient components**
**low-power embedded devices**
**wireless equipment and networks**
**Projected power use by computer, office and network equipment grows from 3.4% of U.S. total in 2001 to 4.8% in 2021 Reference scenario**
**other three scenarios range from 4.5% to 5.5%**
**10% of total by 2021 judged to be implausible**

## Other ICT-Driven ChangesReduce Electricity Use by 2021

**Energy Management Systems (EMS) in buildings**
**Digital process controls**
**Telework**
**E-Commerce**

## ICT Net Effects on Projected ElectricityConsumption in 2021 Vary By Sector

**Residential use above AEO 2002 estimate, largely due to more home offices, home networks and digital TV**
**home networks increase kwh used, but home EMS can reduce peak loads and save other fuels**
**Commercial and industrial use below AEO estimates, primarily due to EMS, telework and e-commerce**
**telework cuts kwh in commercial and industrial sectors while raising use at home**
**Total electricity use 3-11% lower than AEO estimates**
**ICT-driven savings differ widely among scenarios**

## ICT-Driven Residential Electricity Use,2001-2021

## ICT-Driven Commercial Electricity Use,2001-2021

## ICT-Driven Electricity Use in Residential,Commercial & Industrial Sectors to 2021

## 2021 Projected Electricity Use BelowAEO 2002 Estimate in All Scenarios

**	****	****	****Reference****	****	****Cyber-****	****Net**
_**2021 Electricity Use**_**	**_**AEO 2002**_**	**_**Scenario**_**	**_**Zaibatsu**_**	**_**topia**_**	**_**Insecurity**_
**	****TWh****	****4,980****	****4,630****	****4,670****	****4,410****	****4,810**
**	****% difference from AEO 2002****	****-****	****- 7****	****- 6****	****- 11****	****- 3**
**Systematic difference primarily reflects lower 2001 baseline**
**400 TWh difference between highest and lowest use scenarios**
**largest savings in Cybertopia from EMS, telework, e-commerce**
**least in Net Insecurity due to much less trust in ICT networks**
**9% difference shows extent of ICT influence on U.S. power use**

## Outline

- Information and communications technology (ICT) scenarios
- Implications of scenarios for U.S. electricity use
**Implications of scenarios for U.S. electricity supply**
- Study conclusions and recommendations

## Electricity Supply IssuesRaised By ICT Scenarios

**Assuring power quality for very large numbers of digital devices**
**Using ICT to improve grid reliability and operations**
**Using ICT to support distributed generation and storage**
**Addressing vulnerabilities of ICT and electricity infrastructures**

## Assuring Power Quality for Ubiquitous Digital Devices

**Findings and observations:**
**Digital loads need different levels of power quality**
**“****high” for digital audio, video, appliances**
**“****very high” for most home and office computers**
**“****ultra high” for mission-critical functions**
**Storage/conditioning feasible at several levels: chip, device, plug, building, substation, “power park”**
**Industry restructuring blurs responsibility for quality**
**Manufacturers may underinvest to keep costs down**
**Industry R&D may not meet growing needs for quality**

## Using ICT to ImproveGrid Reliability and Operations

**Findings and observations:**
**T&D reliability likely to decline in short term**
**Even decentralized scenarios need a robust grid**
**ICT developments essential to improve T&D monitoring and control**
**Unclear whether industry R&D and investment will provide grid capacity and reliability needed in *****Reference***** and *****Zaibatsu *****cases**

## Using ICT to SupportDistributed Energy Resources

**Findings and observations:**
**DG growth largest in Cybertopia, lowest in Zaibatsu**
**Distributed storage increasingly integrated with DG**
**Technical standards essential for DG interconnection at large scale; other technical obstacles seem solvable**
**Principal factors limiting DER growth are non-technical**
**ICT will support DER integration and control under all scenarios**

## Addressing Vulnerabilities of Power and ICT Infrastructures

**Findings and observations:**
**While ICT supports both centralized and decentralized scenarios, decentralization adds flexibility, resilience**
**“****Self-healing” systems represent an important goal whose feasibility, cost and timing remain unclear**
**More generally, tradeoffs between system robustness, cost and efficiency remain largely unexplored**
**Unclear whether Internet will be secure enough for essential communication and control links**

## Outline

- Information and communications technology (ICT) scenarios
- Implications of scenarios for U.S. electricity use
- Implications of scenarios for U.S. electricity supply
**Study conclusions and recommendations**

## Principal Conclusions of the Study

**Enormous growth of ICT devices and use will have only modest impact on U.S. kwh consumption**
**Increased demand for higher PQR more important to a digital society**
**ICT developments crucial for meeting PQR goals**
**ICT advances needed to support growth of DER**
**ICT has great potential to flatten load curves, thus avoiding some new generation and T&D investment**
**Scenarios point out need to bring R&D results into commercial practice to support digital load demand**

## Recommendations: Improving ICT Scenarios for Energy Planning

**Use scenarios rather than single-point projections for rapidly changing influences such as ICTs **
**Refine scenarios or develop new ones to include**
**ICT effects on energy industry restructuring**
**greater range of cultural or lifestyle changes**
**“****wild cards” challenging standard assumptions; e.g.**
**fuel cell vehicles common as DG sources in 2021**
**adverse health effects of wireless ICTs**
**nanotechnology “personal fabricators” at home**

## Recommendations: Improving Electricity Projections Involving ICTs

**Develop baseline estimates and projections for “digital load” components based on PQR needs**
**Assess ICT-driven usage other than for ICT equipment**
**savings from ICT-enabled EMS in buildings **
**effects of telework on electricity and vehicle fuels**
**e-commerce effects on floorspace, inventories and vehicle miles traveled**
**savings from digital controls in manufacturing**
**power consumption in ICT manufacturing**
**behavioral response to dynamic electricity pricing**

## For Additional Information...

***Electricity Requirements for a Digital Society***
**Report can be downloaded, or printed copies ordered, from RAND’s website: ****	****	****	****	****www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1617**
**Additional comments or questions welcomed: ****	****	****baer@rand.org**