# Presentation: 168570

## Let’s Design Our Own Petaflops System!

**Let’s Design Our Own Petaflops System!**
** ****Horst Simon**
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
**Architectures and Algorithms for Petascale Computing**
**Dagstuhl Seminar**
**February 13, 2006**

## The Wisdom of Crowds

- I want to get your aggregate knowledge about Petascale computing.
- I will ask five “simple” questions and a bonus question.
- I will give you some background.
- I will collect the answers and report the average as the collective opinion of this workshop.

## Q1: When will the first Petaflops machine be installed?

- More precisely ...
- Question 1:
- What date will the first machine appear on the TOP500 list that has a LINPACK RMAX > 1 Pflops?

## Hints for Question 1

- The TOP500 list appears twice a year in June and in November
- First systems
- BG/L >100 Tflops in 6/2005
- Earth Simulator > 10 Tflops in 6/2002
- Red Storm > 1 Tflops in 6/1997
- Numerical Windtunnel > 100 Gflops in 11/1993

## Q2: When will the first Petaflops application performance be obtained?

- More precisely ...
- Question 2:
- What date will the first Gordon Bell Prize be awarded to an application that performs in excess of 1 Pflops?

## Hints for Question 2

- The Gordon Bell Prize is awarded annually at the SCxx conference
- Gordon Bell has made an endowment to ACM that will guarantee funding for the prize for at least another 25 years.
- First applications to reach a level
- Molecular Dynamics >100 Tflops in 2005
- Climate Simulation > 10 Tflops in 2002
- Material Science > 1 Tflops in 1998
- Structures > 100 Gflops in 1994
- Answer to Q2 should probably not be an earlier date than answer to Q1.

## Q3: How many processors will the first Petaflops system have?

- More precisely ...
- Question 3:
- How many total processors dedicated to computation will the system with the Gordon Bell prize winning first Petaflops application have?
- 	(Count each core as a processor if the system has multicore chips).

## Hints for Question 3

- Some large systems installed today with processor counts:
- Columbia (SGI Altix at NASA): 10,240 Itanium2 at 1.6 GHz
- Earth Simulator (NEC at JAMSTEC): 5,120 NEC vector at 500MHz
- ASC Purple (IBM Power 5 at LLNL): 10,240 Power5 at 1.9 GHz
- ASC BG/L (IBM BG/L at LLNL): 131,072 PPC 440 at 700 MHz
- Red Storm (Cray XT3 at Sandia): 10,848 AMD Opteron at 2 GHz

## Q4: How much memory will the first Petaflops system have?

- More precisely ...
- Question 4:
- How much memory will the system with the Gordon Bell prize winning first Petaflops application have?

## Hints for Question 4

- Some large systems installed today with their memory:
- Columbia (SGI Altix at NASA) 20 TB
- Earth Simulator (NEC at JAMSTEC) 10TB
- ASC Purple (IBM Power 5 at LLNL) 50 TB
- ASC BG/L (IBM BG/L at LLNL) 32 TB
- Red Storm (Cray XT3 at Sandia) 10 TB

## Q5: How much will that system cost?

- Hints:
- Earth Simulator at 40 Tflops in 2002 costed $400M
- ASC Purple + BG/L at 100+280 Tflops in 2005 costed $290M
- Red Storm at 43 Tflops in 2005 costed $90M
- For comparison, I found that 1 GB of DDR2 memory costed today about $120 at buy.com
- Your system price probably should be greater than the cost of memory that you proposed in answer to Q4.

## Bonus Question

- Where will the first Petaflops system be installed?
- 		A. China
- 		B. EU (optional: which country?)
- 		C. Japan
- 		D. USA (optional: which state?)
- 		E. other

## Slide 13

## The Median Petaflops System

- 1 Petaflops LINPACK Rmax in Nov 2008
- Petaflops applications performance 2009
- 150,000 processors
- 250 TB memory
- $250M cost
- Installed in US (CA)
- Proposed approximately by P. Bastian, M. Berzins, M. Bubak, G. Hager

## The Mean Petaflops System

- 1 Petaflops LINPACK Rmax in July 2009
- Petaflops applications performance 2009
- 376,000 processors
- 439 TB memory
- $383M cost
- Installed in US (CA)

## First Petaflops System on TOP500

## First Petascale Application

## Number of Processors on Petascale System

## Memory of Petascale System

## Cost of Petascale System

## Country of Installation