# Presentation: 578644

## Slide 1

## Incorporation ofNew Forecasting Tools

- Incorporation ofNew Forecasting Tools

- George M. Bridgers
- North Carolina Division of Air Quality
- U.S.EPA’s 2003 National Air Quality Conference
- February 4th, 2003

## Outline of Topics

- Operational Air Quality Forecast Model
- -  Real Time Ozone Forecast System (RTOFS)
- Meteorological Software Applications
- -  FX-Net
- -  BUFKIT
- Meteorological & Air Quality Equipment
- -  Charlotte & Raleigh Radar Wind Profilers
- -  Multi-Level Air Quality Monitoring On A TV Tower

## RTOFS

- Real Time Ozone Forecast System (RTOFS)
- Operational AQ Modeling System:
- -  Met Model:  MM5
- -  Emissions Model:  SMOKE *( NEI With State Updates )*
- -  AQ Model:  MAQSIP *( Distant Cousin Of CMAQ )*
- -  Automated Generation Of Max Plots & Animations
- Contracted With MCNC *( Now BAMS )*
- -  Contract Administrator:  John McHenry

## RTOFS

- 2 Daily Cycles Of RTOFS
- -  Initialization Off Of The 00Z and 12Z ETA
- -  00Z Cycle Included Day1 Forecast At 15Km &    	Day1&2 Forecast At 45Km
- -  12Z Cycle Included Day2 Forecast At 15km &	Day2 Forecast At 45Km
- Deliverables:
- -  1 & 8 Hour Max Plots For Forecasted Periods
- -  Animations Of Ozone During Forecast Periods At The 	Surface & At An Aloft Layer
- -  Wind Vectors Were Added To Animations
- -  Various MM5 Output Products

## RTOFS

## RTOFS

## RTOFS

- RTOFS Max 8-Hour Forecast (00Z Run)

- Max 8-Hour Observations

## RTOFS

- RTOFS Max 8-Hour Forecast (00Z Run)

- Max 8-Hour Observations

## RTOFS

- RTOFS Max 8-Hour Forecast (00Z Run)

- Max 8-Hour Observations

## RTOFS

- Multiple Year Effort With MCNC Developing An Operational AQ Model & Incorporating It Into An Operational Forecast Environment
- RTOFS Has Shown Forecast Skill, Which Has Improved Year To Year
- Brief Period Of Real AQ Data Ingest And Initialization In 2002 & Looking Forward To Improvements Of This Process In 2003

## FX-Net

- AWIPS-Like JAVA Application Developed By NOAA-FSL For Remote NWS Applications
- Allows For Multi-Layer Overlay Of Forecast Model Products, Observational Surface Data, Satellite & Radar Imagery, Even AQ Data...
- 	“A Lot Of Information On One Plot Is Great!” – Mike Gilroy, 2003 NAQC
- All Layers Are Time Sequenced And Completely Scalable To Any Region
- Customized Views Can Be Saved

## FX-Net

## FX-Net

## FX-Net

## FX-Net

## FX-Net

## FX-Net

- This Product Has Tremendous Potential In The Operational Forecasting Environment
- A Lot Of Similar Graphics Can Be Found On The Internet, But We Have Not Found A Place That Offers Such Flexibility And Ease For Alternative Forecast Product Generation
- Issues With Bandwidth & Data Transmission Need To Be Resolved Before FX-Net Can Be Viable For The Larger AQ Forecasting Community

## BUFKIT

- Excellent Forecast Model Exploration Tool!!!
- Forecast Sounding, Indices, And Other Metrics For A Particular Location
- Vertical Time Series With Thousands Of Possible Parameter Combinations
- Software & Site Data Freely Available
- http://wdtb.noaa.gov/resources/projects/BUFKIT/index.html

## BUFKIT

## BUFKIT

## Radar Wind Profilers

- NCDAQ Operates 2 Radar Wind Profilers
- 	Charlotte Airport		Just SE Of Raleigh
- Technical Specifications:
- -  Manufactured By Vaisala *( Formerly Radian )*
- -  915MHz Units At ~0.5Kw Output Power
- 	Lower Boundary Layer Applications
- -  Configured For Half-Hourly Winds
- 	~3Km @ 60m Resolution
- 	~5Km @ 100m Resolution
- -  Radio Acoustic Sounding System (RASS)
- 	Virtual Temperature Profiles To ~1Km

## Radar Wind Profilers

- Example Of Typical Installation *( Raleigh )*

## Radar Wind Profilers

- Excellent Source Of Vertical Wind Profiles In Low Reflectivity Or “Clear Air” Atmospheres
- Can Observe Many Micro To Meso-Scale Events:
- Boundary Layer Growth
- Re-circulation Patterns
- Bay Or Ocean Breeze Interactions
- Nocturnal Temperature Inversions
- Valuable Tool For SIP Modeling

## Radar Wind Profilers

- WSR-88D VAD Product

## Radar Wind Profilers

- Raleigh Profiler Yields Critical Data

## Radar Wind Profilers

- Low Level Temperature Inversions

## Radar Wind Profilers

- SIP Met Model Verification

## Radar Wind Profilers

- NCDAQ Has Partnered With NOAA-FSL To Make This Data Available To The General Meteorological Community
- More Info On NOAA’s Profiler Network:
- http://www.profiler.noaa.gov/
- http://www.profiler.noaa.gov/jsp/profiler.jsp?options=full

## Multi-Level AQ Monitoring

- NCDAQ Has Operated Ozone Monitors At Multiple Layers On the WRAL-TV Tower Near Raleigh Since 1994
- Hourly Ozone Measurements At The Surface, 250ft, 420ft, and 1420ft
- Unique Site For Forecasting and SIP Modeling Applications
- PM2.5 TEOM Soon To Be Installed!!!

## Multi-Level AQ Monitoring

- View Of Raleigh From The Tower

## Multi-Level AQ Monitoring

**DAILY SUMMARY                         08/06/99   218     WRAL TOWER**
***************************************************************************
**CHANNEL NUMBER       01      02      03      04      05      06      07**
**CHANNEL NAME        TMP      O3      M2      M4      HI     CAL     IHG**
**-----------------------------------------------------------------------**
**01:00                25    ****.056    .060    .059****    ****.104****    .001  -18.90**
**02:00                25    ****.046    .057    .057****    ****.075****    .001  -18.88**
**03:00                25    ****.037    .058    .062****    ****.094****    .001  -18.88**
**04:00                25    .089C   ****.063****    ****.066    .078****    .088C -18.66**
**05:00                25    ****.033****    .091C   ****.066    .068****    .088  -18.66**
**06:00                25    ****.025    .063****    .090C   ****.066****    .088  -18.66**
**07:00                25<   ****.022<   .040<   .048<****   .085F   .085< -18.60<**
**08:00                26<   ****.040<   .043<   .047<****   ****.077<****   .001< -18.87<**
**09:00                25    ****.056    .056    .057****    ****.078****    .001  -18.87**
**10:00                25<   ****.076<   .076<   .075<   .079<****   .001< -18.88<**
**11:00                25<   ****.089<   .086<****   ****.084<   .079<****   .001< -18.90<**
**12:00                25<   ****.089<   .086<   .085<****   ****.081<****   .001< -18.90<**
**13:00                25<   ****.097<   .093<   .089<   .086<****   .001< -18.92<**
**14:00                26<   ****.105<****   ****.101<   .099<   .097<****   .001< -18.92<**
**15:00                27    ****.110    .106    .105****    ****.102****    .001  -18.92**
**16:00                27    ****.113    .111    .109    .106****    .001  -18.92**
**17:00                28    ****.110    .111    .109    .107****    .001  -18.92**
**18:00****                ****27****    ****.108    .113    .111    .108****    ****.001  -18.92**
**19:00****                ****26****    ****.082****    ****.101    .103****    ****.109****    ****.001  -18.94**
**20:00****               **** 25 ****   ****.055****    ****.092    .095    .100****    ****.001  -18.94**
**AVERAGE              26<   .071<   .080<   .080<   .089<   .015< -18.85<**

## Multi-Level AQ Monitoring

- SIP AQ Model Verification

## Questions and Comments

- NCDAQ Meteorologists:
- George.Bridgers@ncmail.net
- 	919-715-6287
- Michael.Abraczinskas@ncmail.net
- 	919-715-3743
- Wyat.Appel@ncmail.net
- 	919-715-9773
- NC Air Awareness Program
- http://daq.state.nc.us/    *( Follow the links )*
- Call 1-888-RU4NCAIR	*( 784-6224 )*