# Presentation: 276684

## Role of the SOO in an Evolving NWS

**Role of the SOO ****in an Evolving NWS**

**Rusty Billingsley**** – Chief of Science and Technology Services**
**Southern Region Headquarters, National Weather Service**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**Role of the SOO****in an Evolving NWS**

**Disclaimer:  The opinions and views in this presentation represent those of the speaker and not an official position of the National Weather Service nor anyone else!**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**Role of the SOO****in an Evolving NWS**

**First we need to know:**
** “****What are we evolving into?”**

**We’ll use 2015 as a target – consistent with ConOps**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSWait a Minute – Context to Consider!

**Premise**** – change is occurring exponentially – but you expect it to be linear based on the “current” rate of change!**
**“...****because we're doubling the rate of progress every decade, we'll see a century of progress--*****at today's rate*****--in only 25 calendar years.”  ****Ray Kurzweil *****Law of Accelerating Returns***

**Accelerating Change**** – this isn’t your father’s rate of change!**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSSome Proof!

**Suppose its 1995 and you are predicting 2005:**
** ****Windows 95 and Internet Explorer 1.0 introduced**
** ****Netscape, Ebay, and Amazon.com come to life**
** ****eCERN holds a two-day **_[seminar](http://www.cern.ch/CERN/WorldWideWeb/mediaday/)_** for the European Media (press, radio, TV), attended by 250 reporters, to show ****WWW.**** It is ****demonstrated on 60 machines, with 30 pupils from the local International High School helping the reporters "surf the Web"**** **
** ****Traditional online dial-up systems (Compuserve, America Online, Prodigy) begin to provide Internet access**
** ****6.5 Million Hosts, ****100,000 WWW Sites on internet**
** ****MP3 format comes of age**
** ****USB standard released**
** ****Red Hat Linux formed (actually 94)**
** ****Compaq Computer reaches number one world market share**
** ****OS2 Warp ships, PC DOS 7 ships**
** ****Intel introduces ****120 MHz Pentium**** processor**
** ****IBM unveils its new IBM ****PC 300 desktop systems, with 75-MHz and 90-MHz Pentium CPUs. Complete systems start at US$2000. **
** ****IBM buys Lotus**
** ****IBM releases the ThinkPad 760CD (120 MHz), with the industry's first 12.1-inch thin-film transistor display **
** ****Sun Microsystems introduces new Ultra 1 and Ultra 2 workstations**** **
** ****Sony Electronics introduces the 32-bit game system, PlayStation **
-  **Cell phone subscribers reach 34 million**
** ****Bombing of the Murrah Federal Building in OKC**
** ****NASDAQ closes above 1000 for first time**
** ****Iraq disarmament crisis**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSSome Proof!

**For 2005, would you have predicted:**
** ****Homeland Security would be a big deal**
** ****You could put your entire song collection on a device as big as your thumb**
** ****A desktop could be had for a few hundred bucks**
** ****Microsoft and Dell would be the big players**
** ****Stock market crash after incredible bubble**
** ****Thumb drives**
** ****Satellite radio**
** ****Wireless everywhere**
** ****70+ emails a day**
** ****Reality TV would be a hit**
** ****Half a terabyte disk drives for 300 bucks (500 gig)**
** ****Laser printers for under a 100 bucks**
** ****DVDs, cell phones, digital cameras everywhere**
** ****The enormity of the Internet**
** ****GIS**
** ****Gridded forecasting (GFE)**
** ****E-commerce**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSAll This Talk of Change!

**Our environment at the time - 1995 in the WSFO/WSO**
**AFOS continues as operational system**
**AWIPS in trouble – 400M spent already**
**PCGRIDDs in use**
**Some offices get UNIX workstations (SOO Sacs)**
**SWIS/MicroSwis**
**A few offices experimenting with web sites, web is just a curiosity to most**
**ASOS commissioning continues**

**This is just one decade ago!**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSAll This Talk of Change!

**Accelerating Change**** – this isn’t your father’s rate of change!**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSAll This Talk of Change!

**Accelerating Change**** – this isn’t your father’s rate of change!**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSAll This Talk of Change!

**Bottom line:  ****Technological rate of change is accelerating...we underestimate it significantly...making any 2015 prediction suspect.**
**What we are likely to think will happen in 2015 should occur technologically by 2008.**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**Role of the SOO****in an Evolving NWS**

**What are we evolving into?**
**NOAA/NWS Strategic Plan, PPBES, OSIP**
**STIP – Science and Technology Infusion Plan**
**Concept of Operations Team (ConOps)**
**Where are our customers/partners headed?**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**To provide the best service possible, we must ****adapt****.**
**2. We must be more efficient with our resources so that we can ****do more and better****.**
**3. We must capitalize on ****future opportunities****.**
**4. We need to ****posture ourselves**** for budget uncertainties and opportunities because if current trends in budget erosion continue, we face serious financial and operational consequences.**

**ConOps - Case for Change**

## Key ShiftsMoving Beyond the Status Quo

- Phenomenon Based Forecasts
- Product Based Services
- Coordination
- Technology Tied
- National Weather Service
- Reactive Evolution
- Static Resource Allocation
- Weather-centric

- Impact Based Forecasts
- Decision Support Services
- Collaboration
- Technology Enabled
- Full Partnering Weather Enterprise
- Proactive continuous Improvement
- Dynamic Resource Allocation
- Earth System Science

- _From_

- _To_

## Clustered Peers VisionAn Extension of the Ops Philosophy

- 	- focuses NWS resources on _high-impact events_
- 	- while providing routine services
- 	- in a highly _collaborative_ process,
- 	- optimizing _modern science and technology_
- 	- composed of _functionally staffed field offices_
- 	- at _current facilities_ (with modifications).

**An effective field structure for NOAA’s National Weather Service consisting of a highly trained workforce, which...**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**High Impact and Decision Support          ****Window of opportunity!**
**Focus on decision-makers **
**Lots of talk on collaboration**
**Dynamically redistributing workload**
**Conclusion**** – this is an evolution, not a revolution.  Service part of evolution not well defined – a window of opportunity!  **

**ConOps – My View – current implementation team is building a structure so NWS field offices can become more efficient in order to do “something”, but that “something” is not well defined**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**Customers/Partners – where are they headed?**
**Weather enterprise is growing, becoming more profitable**
**Increasingly sophisticated and diverse**
** ****GIS orientation**
** ****Some run own weather models, own obs**
** ****Information dissemination explosion**
**Realize value of accurate weather information**
**First signs of increasing proprietary systems**
**Need services in increasingly diverse forms**
**Using more complex decision support systems**
**Probabilistic world**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSWhere are our customers headed?

**Increasing and more diverse requirements very evident in Texas DEM support for Hurricane Katrina/Rita**
**When will be the onset of TS winds by county?  **
**Impacts of the projected storm surge**
**County by county breakdown of winds abating **
**Impacts of predicted winds – trees and power lines down**
**What-if questions**
**How big (scope) is the “storm”?**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**“****Picture” of a storm surge**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**“****Katrina” projected onto “Rita” forecast path**

**Very simple GIS overlay**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSWhat are we evolving into?

_**Bottom line**_**:  A “Service Evolution” that is already under way in an atmosphere of exponential tech change  **
**Interpreters of an explosion of weather data and information**
**High impact, decision support, all hazard services**
**A more integrated piece of the whole weather enterprise**
**An agency where day to day lines of responsibility and authority will become more flexible, depending on the situation**
**An agency dedicated to those that are responsible for life and property and those that disseminate that type of information **

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSWhat are we evolving into?

**Role of the SOO****in an Evolving NWS**What are we evolving into?

**Time to get uncomfortable:****  **
**“****Machines” will need less and less help from you to issue day to day weather forecasts**
**Systems will need to get much better at “mining” information for you**
**Your value will be in making sense (interpreting) of the vast complex of weather info and communicating the proper message to decision makers**
**Private industry will adapt to new tech faster than the gov’t **
**NWS is not the only game in town any more – we are becoming proportionally less of the wx enterprise with time**
**New science and tech becoming more proprietary **
**Productivity is the name of the game **
** **

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWSWhat are we evolving into?

**Time to get comfortable – the NWS advantage:****  **
**Saving lives and protecting property will continue to be a government responsibility**
**Other government entities with life and property responsibility will probably move along technologically like NWS**
**Other government entities will want unbiased weather and environmental information – they trust NWS**
** **

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**So what is the role of the SOO in an evolving NWS?**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**Is there a need for a Science and Operations Officer?**
**Technological rate of change of advancements will accelerate,**
**Leading to an explosion of available information,**
**Which will have to be **_**interpreted**_** by experts (in the WFOs),**
**For our increasingly sophisticated and diverse set of customers.**
**Answer should be obvious!**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**What is your role?**
**Show us the way – be a visionary **
**Reclaim our role as an agency based on scientific integrity**
**Make sure we use our human resources in the smartest way**
**Ensure we measure our true value**
**Show us what new job skills we need **
**Help us to understand our customer’s needs**
**Train us to be the best**
**The need for your skills is increasing!**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**What can you do?  **
**Technology will have a hard time replacing the goodwill generated by the direct service provided by your WFO**
**Continue the tradition of excellent service and trust**
**Help lead the customers (and NWS) in the right direction (i.e., be active in solutions)**
**Work even harder to understand the environment under which your customers live**
**Be open to new ways of doing business **
**Find ways to keep up with the technological onslaught – the results can be remarkable and very satisfying**

## Role of the SOOin an Evolving NWS

**What can you do?**
**Jump through that window of opportunity!**