# Presentation: 209559

## Model collaboration, coordination and...the Model Webfor ecological forecasting

- 1 May 2008

## From Yesterday

**Need to assess impacts of change...**
**“****A new generation of integrated modeling is needed”  (Tony Janetos)**
**“****Major investment in impact models is needed”**
**“****Need integrated research” (Ex: biofuels/food/crop)**
**Need “Model comparisons...multi-model analyses...coordinated agenda”**
**“****Need to develop an infrastructure”**
**“****Need to investigate alternative futures”**
**“****Need a new NASA program”**

- 1 May 2008

## Overview

**Bring people together**
**Review Model Web concept**
**Discuss strawperson approach to doing it**
**Focus on: Initial Framework Infrastructure**
**Right models?**
**Right people?**

- 1 May 2008

## Current Modeling Environment

**Very limited model-model communication **
**Technical and especially non-technical barriers**
**Response**
**Try a “web of models” analogous to the WWW**
**Can’t just plan and build it**
**Facilitate and encourage **

- 1 May 2008

**Notes:**
GEOSS philosophy and architecture include the basic concepts of the Model Web, though in a more generic way.  The Model Web specifically applies that philosophy to the modeling environment.

## Demonstration System

**Global Climate**
**Dataset**

**Regional**
**Climate Dataset**

**Species Distribution Model**

**Species **
**distribution**

**TOPS**

- 1 May 2008

## System Growth

**Global Climate**
**Dataset**

**Regional**
**Climate Dataset**

**Fire**
**Model**

**TOPS**

**Species **
**distribution**

**Species Distribution Model**

- 1 May 2008

## System Growth

**Global Climate**
**Dataset**

**Regional**
**Climate Dataset**

**Fire**
**Model**

**Landscape**
**Model**

**TOPS**

**Species **
**distribution**

**Fire risk,**
**Intensity, etc**

**Possible**
**Landscapes**

**Species Distribution Model**

- 1 May 2008

## Distributed network of interoperating models (and datasets and sensors) 
Using web services
Models are harmonized
Multi-disciplinary scope

**Using web services**
**Models are harmonized**
**Multi-disciplinary scope**

**Model Web: 5-10+ Year Vision (1/2)**

- 1 May 2008

## Model Web: 5-10+ Year Vision (2/2)

**Grows organically within framework of broad goals and data exchange standards**
**Models and datasets maintained, operated, and served independently **
**Web access provided to researchers, managers, policy makers, public**

- 1 May 2008

## Model and Data Space

**Model and Data Space**

- Portal

- Portal

**Model A**

**Model B**

**Model C**

**Dataset 1**

**Dataset 2**

**Model D**

**Model E**

**Model F**

**Dataset 3**

**Dataset 4**

**Model G**

- 1 May 2008

## Slide 11

| Model Web | "Traditional" |
| --- | --- |
| Harmonization of components a lot of work | Harmonization of components a lot of work |
| Communication by web services | Communication by API/system calls  |
| Dynamic, interoperable system of systems | Static, isolated, integrated systems |
| Loosely coupled components | Tightly coupled components |
| Distributed system lacking centralized control | Centralized system controlled by developers |
| Open system.  New components added without permission | Closed system.  New components only added by system developers |
| Organic and opportunistic growth, similar to WWW (but guided) | All growth planned |
| High level of component reuse—once harmonized with other components a component is available to everyone | Low level of reuse; once harmonized with other components remains within the tightly coupled system |
| Generally high level of data sharing | Generally lower level of sharing; focus is on specific questions and tightly coupled components so that only final products are shared |
| Indeterminate growth | Determinate growth as defined by developers |
| Long term evolutionary process that gradually converges on higher levels of interoperability | Shorter term development process with complete interoperability at delivery |
| Leads to a shared modeling infrastructure accessible by all | Leads to isolated model systems available to a few |
| Untrained users may misuse model or outputs | Misuse rarer because users and developers are typically the same |
| Unsuitable for systems that require high levels of data exchange between components | High levels of data exchange less of a problem due to co-location of components |

- 1 May 2008

## Next Step

**Think about an initial “framework infrastructure”**
**Expand demo system**
**Include additional basic components**

- 1 May 2008

## Strawperson Initial Framework Infrastructure 

**   ****Landscape**
**Ecotype**
**Tree density**
**Biomass**
**Disturbance**
**Succession**
**Composition**

**Species **
**Distribution**

**     **** ****Fire**
**Risk**
**Frequency**
**Intensity**
**Behavior**
**Emissions**

**Environment**
**(eg, TOPS)**

**      ****Carbon**
**Accounting**
**Allocation**
**Flows**
**Sequestration**

**Ecosystem**
**Services**

**Species **
**Abundance**

**All kinds**
**of data**

**Invasive Species**

**Community-level**
**Biodiversity**
**(Ferrier)**

***Role TBD***

**Public Health**

**Socio-economic**

- 1 May 2008

## Selection Criteria

**Model developer is engaged**
**Model developer is broad thinker and shares vision of a model infrastructure**
**Models have potential for harmonization**

- 1 May 2008

## Slide 15

| Model or Category | Modeler | Model information |
| --- | --- | --- |
| NASA TOPS | Rama Nemani (NASA) | Environmental information past, present, future, including temperature, rainfall, radiation, LAI, soil moisture, stream outflow, ET, vegetation stress, primary productivity |
| GEOSS GBIF IP3 demo system | Stefano Nativi (Italian National Research Council) | Uses OpenModeler and GBIF to produce range maps based on the provided climate |
| Community models | Simon Ferrier (CSIRO, Australia) | TBD |
| Carbon | Yiqi Luo (Univ of Kansas) | TBD |
| Fire | TBD | Many options; Nativi has a Mediterranean model, TOPS will likely add an emissions model; USFS has many models; risk, intensity, frequency, coverage, emissions are of interest |
| Landscape | eg, LANDIS--Rob Scheller (Conservation Biology Institute) | LANDIS has a fire module as well as other components that are loosely coupled and available as DLLs.  Should also check into the Ecosystem Demography model (Paul Moorcroft, George Hurtt) |
| Socioeconomic | Robert Costanza's group (Gund Inst for Env Economics) | Ecosystem services, predicted landcover change; roads; etc |
| Public health | EPA--Gary Foley’s group | TBD |
| Ecosystem services | EPA—Rick Linthurst’s group, with John Johnston | TBD |
| Invasive species | Jeff Morisette and John Schnase (NASA) | NASA Invasive Species Forecasting System; predicts likely spread of invasives |

- 1 May 2008

## Related Topic

**Chris Field and Modeling Breakout group**
**Coordination in assessing impact of change**
**Would enhance application of model results **
**Form a working group?**

- 1 May 2008

## Next Steps

**Expand demo system to Initial framework system**
**Finalize models and participants**
**Submit proposals?**
**Plan Model Web Workshop**
**Impact modeling WG for coordination?**

- 1 May 2008

## Principle of Gradual Convergence

**Vision cannot be achieved quickly**
**Gradually converged upon**
**Cannot be achieved completely**
**Not necessary**
**Follow path of organic growth **
**Organized around general framework**
**Facilitated by tools and technologies**
**Lubricated by interested sponsors**

- 1 May 2008

## Barriers to Interoperability

**Data format**
**Data terminology**
**Missing data**
**Temporal/spatial gridding**
**Standards**
**Sponsor goals**
**Model purpose**
**Effort required**
**Proprietariness**
**Acceptance**
**Cultural differences**

- }

- }

**Technical**

**Non-technical**

- 1 May 2008

## Larger infrastructure

**Global**
**Climate**

**Public Health**

**Human Population Density **
**and Distribution**

**Socioeconomic**
**Poverty**
**Technology**
**Economy**
**Behavior**

**Regional Environmental**
**             ****Change**
**Habitat Alteration**
**Deforestation/Disturbance**
**Agricultural Intensification**
**Urbanization**
**Fire**
**Carbon**
**Landscape**
**Ecosystem Services**

**Species & Habitat**
**Range**
**Abundance**
**Functions**
**Interactions**

**Local/Regional**
**Climate**

***These***
***interact***

**All kinds**
**of data**

***Includes vectors & hosts***

- 1 May 2008