# Presentation: 686577

## Cost and Schedule Estimate 

*University of Tennessee*

- EDM Collaboration meeting
- December, 2004

- Cost and Schedule Estimate

- WBS 2.5- Neutron beam polarizer/splitter for SNS
- WBS 3-Shielding
- Experimental shielding
- Shielding for Splitter/Polarizer

## Splitter/Polarizer

- 127.0 mm

- 101.6 mm

- 254.0 mm

- 14000 mm

- 4500 mm

- m=3 suppermirror guides

- m=3 polarizing supermirror
- coated on thin Si wafer

- TOP VIEW

- Takeyasu Ito

## Cost Estimate

- Basis for estimate
- Supermirror guides $30k/m
- Si wafer $30/4 inch disk
-    * From semiconductor industry, roughness ~ 5Å (source J.J. Ferme from Seso)
- Cost estimate
- $30k/m x 14m x 2 = $840 k
-   * Factor 2 for coating Si wafer and constructing more complicated system than straight guide
- [ed. TVC] +$125k for labor on next page.
- [ed. TVC] *1.35 (overhead, sales tax)
- [ed. TVC] Contingency = 52% (see last page)

- Takeyasu Ito

## Estimated Schedule and Necessary Resources

- Conceptual design
- 1 scientist; 2 months
- Preparation of equipment spec
- 1 engineer; 3 months
- Preparation for procurement (generation of RFQ, signing contract)
- 5% of a scientist, 5% of an engineer; 3 months
- Design, fabrication, installation
- 5% of a scientist, 5% of an engineer; 12 months

- Takeyasu Ito

## [ed. TVC] Table Entries

|  | Level 2 Cost | Contingency | Duration | Float |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2.5.1 Design Beam Splitter | 170 | 90 | 8 mo. | 2 mo. |
| 2.5.2 Procure/Install Beam Splitter | 1130 | 600 | 12 mo. | 6 mo. |

- Takeyasu Ito

## [ed. TVC] Part of SNS Guide?

- The FNPB _approved baseline_ includes a 12 x 14 cm2 guide to the external building appropriate for either lifetime or EDM.
- A 14 meter splitter would overlap this guide by several meters.
- Modifying the FNPB guide (shortening it or including the splitter) will require DOE approval.

- Takeyasu Ito

## Experimental Shielding

- Consideration
- NIST lifetime experiment uses 4in Pb wall
- Background at SNS expected to be ~1/5 of NIST
- 2 foot concrete walls surrounding three sides may be sufficient
- Cost-estimate both options

- Takeyasu Ito

## Experimental ShieldingOption  I (expensive)

- Experimental ShieldingOption  I (expensive)

- Experiment

- Conceptual design

- 4-in. thick, 3 m high lead walls with supporting
- structure surrounding the experiment

- 6m

- 2.5m

- Takeyasu Ito

## Cost estimate

- Basis for estimate
- Need 5.1 m3 of lead
- $0.90/lb for lead
- $5K for design, $20K for fabrication, $15K for installation (based on a rough estimate from a company)
- 5.1x106cm3x11g/cm3/(450g/lb)x$0.90/lb=$110K
- $110K+$5K+$20K+$15K=$150K

- Takeyasu Ito

## Experimental ShieldingOption II (cheap)

- Experiment

- 6‘x2’x1’ non-reinforced concrete blocks
- (a la NIST guide hall shielding)

- Support structure
- (I beam tied to the
- floor)

- Conceptual design

- Height of the shielding = 3 m

- Takeyasu Ito

## Cost estimate

- Basis for estimate
- Need 100 6’x2’x1’ concrete blocks
- $200/block (based on a quote of $650 for a 2’x3’x7’ block)
- Need 12 I-beams
- $500/I-beam (100lb/ft, 10ft I-beam, $0.42/lb)
- 80 hours of engineering oversight ($100/hour)
- $200x100+$500x12+$100x80=$34K

- Takeyasu Ito

## Beam Splitter/Polarizer Shielding

- Adopt the same design as the shielding for the beam line (a minor modification may be necessary)
- Preliminary conceptual design and cost estimate exist
- Precast standard concrete, U shapes 2m high x 2/3 m wide x 30 m long. + miscellaneous pieces – 50 m3
- $23K

- Takeyasu Ito

## Cost Estimate

- Basis for estimate
- $23K for 30 m long SNS UCN line shielding
- Cost estimate
- $23K x 0.5 = $12K

- Takeyasu Ito

## [ed. TVC] Table Entries

|  | Level 1 Cost | Contingency | Duration | Float |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3.1 Beam Line Shielding | 45 | 11 | 3 mo. | 1 mo. |
| 3.2 Experiment Shielding  | 30 | 7 | 3 mo. | 1 mo. |

- Takeyasu Ito

## [ed. TVC] Contingency Calculation

| Technical, cost, and schedule risk weights |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Technical | Cost | Schedule | Risk weight |
|  | Material cost OR labor rate | Same for all | 1 |
| Design OR manufacturing | Material cost AND labor rate |  | 2 |
| Design AND manufacturing |  |  | 4 |

| Technical, cost, and schedule risk factors |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Technical | Cost | Schedule | Risk factor |
| Existing design and off-the-shelf hardware | Off-the-shelf or catalog item |  | 1% |
| Minor modifications to an existing design  | Vendor quote from established drawings | No schedule impact on any other item | 2% |
| Extensive modifications to an existing design | Vendor quote with some design sketches |  | 3% |
| New design, nothing exotic | In-house estimate based on previous similar experience | Delays completion of non-critical path subsystem item | 4% |
| New design, different from established designs or existing technology | In-house estimate for item with minimal experience but related to existing capabilities |  | 6% |
| New design, requires some R&D but does not advance the state-of-the-art | In-house estimate for item with minimal experience and minimal in-house capability | Delays completion of critical path subsystem item | 8% |
| New design, development of new technology which advances state-of-the-art | Top-down estimate from analogous programs |  | 10% |
| New design, way beyond the current state-of-the-art | Engineering judgment |  | 15% |

- Each item in the WBS is assigned three risk factors (F) and three risk weights (W).
- State of design
- Basis of cost estimate
- Schedule criticality
- C = FiWi, where repeated indices imply summation.
- This procedure is standard among DOE HEP experiments.

- Takeyasu Ito

**Notes:**
Go slowly over each one.