# Presentation: 435599

## Gunnison & San Juan

- Verification Assignment

## BMDC2- Blue Mesa

- 1993-2005 Data
- Wakeby ESP

## Slide 3

## Slide 4

## Slide 5

## Slide 6

## 2000-2005

- Calibrated basin
- ESP thought to be more accurate

## 2000-2005

## What about the extreme years?

- What would the MAE be without these?
- Better? Worse?

## Slide 10

## Slide 11

## Slide 12

## 1993, 1995, 2002 omitted

**1993, 1995, 2002 omitted**

## Observations

- Guidance/forecast verify closer to observations if extreme years are ignored.
- During the 2000-2005 years, forecast/guidance showed an improvement over 1993-2005.
- ESP only slightly better that SWS for 1993-2005.

## Slide 15

## SOMC2-NF Gunnison Somerset

- 1993-2005 data
- wakeby

## Slide 17

## Slide 18

## Slide 19

## Slide 20

## 2000-2005?

## 2000-2005

## Extreme years ignored?

- 1993
- 1995
- 2002

## 1993, 1995, 2002 omitted

**1993, 1995, 2002 omitted**

## Observations

- Guidance/forecast verify closer to observations if extreme years are ignored.
- During the 2000-2005 years, forecast/guidance showed slight improvement.
- ESP better that SWS for 1993-2005 compared to BMDC2.

## Slide 26

## DOLC2-Dolores

- 1993-2005 data
- wakeby

## Slide 28

## Slide 29

## Slide 30

## Slide 31

## 2000-2005?

## 2000-2005

## Extreme years?

- 1993
- 1995
- 1999
- 2002

## Slide 35

## 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 omitted

**1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 omitted**

## Observations

- Guidance/forecast verify closer to observations if extreme years are ignored.
- During the 2000-2005 years, forecast/guidance showed little improvement.
- ESP slightly better that SWS for 1993-2005.

## Slide 38

## SMPC2-San Miguel Placerville

- 1993-2005 data
- wakeby

## Slide 40

## Slide 41

## Slide 42

## Slide 43

## 2000-2005?

## 2000-2005

## Extreme years?

- 1993
- 1995
- 1999
- 2002

## Slide 47

## 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 omitted

**1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 omitted**

## Observations

- Guidance/forecast verify closer to observations if extreme years are ignored. Especially ESP for January.
- During the 2000-2005 years, forecast/guidance showed little improvement, except SWS which deteriorated slightly.
- ESP better that SWS for 1993-2005.

## Slide 50

## DRGC2-Animas Durango

- 1993-2005 data
- Wakeby

## Slide 52

## Slide 53

## Slide 54

## Slide 55

## 2000-2005?

## 2000-2005

## Extreme years?

- 1993
- 1995
- 1999
- 2002

## 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 omitted

**1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 omitted**

## Observations

- Guidance/forecast verify  slightly closer to observations if extreme years are ignored. Especially ESP for January.
- During the 2000-2005 years, forecast/guidance showed little improvement, except SWS which deteriorated slightly.
- ESP the same to slightly better than SWS for 1993-2005.

## Slide 61

## PIDC2-Piedra Arboles

- 1993-2005 data
- wakeby

## Slide 63

## Slide 64

## Slide 65

## Slide 66

## 2000-2005?

## 2000-2005

**2000-2005**

## Extreme years?

- 1993
- 1995
- 1999
- 2002

## 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 omitted

**1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 omitted**

## Observations

- Guidance/forecast verify closer to observations if extreme years are ignored.
- During the 2000-2005 years, forecast/guidance showed slight improvement. ESP was better that SWS.
- ESP the same to slightly better than SWS for 1993-2005.

## Slide 72

## VCRC2-Vallecito

- 1993-2005 data
- wakeby

## Slide 74

## Slide 75

## Slide 76

## Slide 77

## 2000-2005?

## 2000-2005

**2000-2005**

## Extreme years?

- 1993
- 1995
- 1999
- 2002

## 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 omitted

**1993, 1995, 1999, 2002 omitted**

## Observations

- Guidance/forecast verify closer to observations if extreme years are ignored.
- During the 2000-2005 years, forecast/guidance showed slight improvement. ESP was only slightly better that SWS.
- ESP the same as SWS for 1993-2005.

## Slide 83

## El Nino/ La Nina Correlation?

- Let’s check out both the San Juan and Gunnison Basins

## Multivariate ENSO Jan-Jun For NVRN5

## Multivariate ENSO Jan-Jun For DRGC2

## Multivariate ENSO Jan-Jun For SMPC2

## Multivariate ENSO Jan-Jun For DOLC2

## Multivariate ENSO Jan-Jun For SOMC2

## What about further north? (curiosity)

## Multivariate ENSO Jan-Jun For WBRW4

## End