# Presentation: 745243

## Ag Forecast Lowered $1 Billion to $56 BillionAg Imports Raised to $45.5 Billion 

**Fiscal 2003**
**Export Forecasts for Agricultural,**
**Fishery & Solid Wood Products**

- USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
- was released on May 27, 2003
- Prepared by Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

## U.S. Agricultural Trade

**U.S. Agricultural Trade**

- Record

- Record

- Record

***Exports***

***Imports***

***Trade Balance   ***

- Since February, 2003 export forecast cut $1 billion to $56 billion, due to lower corn volume & live animal/poultry meat sales.  Surplus cut to $10.5 billion.

## Commodity/Country 2003 Export Forecasts

|  | 
Final
FY 2002 | Feb
FY ‘03
For. | May
FY ‘03
For. | 
Feb/May
Chg | 

Main Reasons |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Corn ($ Billion) | 4.581 | 5.5 | 4.7 | -0.8 | (-) volume/price |
| Hort. ($ Billion) | 11.109 | 11.3 | 11.6 | +0.3 | exchg rate; (+) apples/pears/nuts |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Corn (mmt) | 46.913 | 47.0 | 42.0 | -5.0 | competition w/ China & Argent |
| Soybeans (mmt) | 28.897 | 25.6 | 27.5 | +1.9 | China’s demand |

**Commodity/Country 2003 Export Forecasts**

- China +$800 million to $3.1 billion (soybeans)
- Mexico -$300 million to $7.6 billion (coarse grain prices, animal & animal prods)
- Egypt -$300 million to $800 million (grains, soybeans)
-     **...****Western Hemisphere still leads Asia** but gap narrows to only $200 million

***Key Changes in Fiscal ’03 Forecasts since February***

## Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

**Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $800 Million to $15.3 Billion

- Includes corn gluten feed/meal

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
- U.S. corn exports slashed due to competition from China & Argentina
- Abundance of feed quality wheat weighs on corn prices
- Rice sales up to Brazil and Venezuela

## Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

**Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products**

- Excludes corn gluten feed/meal

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:  Unchanged at $10.0 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
- Strong U.S. soybean sales to China – China’s imports at record 16.5 mmt for MY 2002/03
- Lower soybean export unit price

## Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters

**Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters**

- Note:  FY ’02 and prior years based on U.S Census data; FY ‘03 and ’04 forecasts based on WASDE MY forecast.

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:  Unchanged at $2.6 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
- Exports fall later in season which helps boost total value

## Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry

**Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $500 Million to $11.9 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
- Lower pork and poultry prices
- Broiler sales to Japan affected by domestic disease outbreaks
- Expanding poultry exports to secondary mkts (Angola/Baltics)
- Reduced live animal shipments

## Export Outlook for Horticultural Products

**Export Outlook for Horticultural Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $300 Million to $11.6 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
- More competitive dollar
- Higher prices for apples & pears
- Strong tree nut and wine sales

## Export Outlook for Fishery Products

**Export Outlook for Fishery Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:      $100 Million to $3.0 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
*Key Developments*
- Small California squid harvest due to *el Nino*

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

## Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products

**Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products**

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:      $100 Million to $4.9 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast
- U.S. exports to Canada rising on strength of hardwood lumber