# Presentation: 699097

## Land surface memory & hydrological cycle over the 

***Land surface memory & hydrological cycle over the ***
***U.S. west coast states & monsoon region ***
*Yun Fan and Huug van del Dool*
*CPC/NCEP/NOAA*

**http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/index.htm**

## Outline

***Motivation ***
***Noah Land Surface Model & Data***
***Results***
***Land surface hydrological cycle***
***Land memory studies***
***Summary***

## Motivation

**Improve soil moisture data for CPC’s drought & flood monitoring tools**
**Improve weather & climate prediction with more accurate land initial conditions**
**Improve land surface model via data validation& model intercomparisons**
**Provide a long time series of realistic land surface data for land surface hydrological cycle, land memory & predictablity studies**
**Coupled atmosphere-land-ocean modeling**
**Develop new tools to use land surface data for climate monitoring & prediction**
-  ...

## Current CPC soil moisture monitor & climate prediction activities:

*Current CPC soil moisture monitor & climate prediction activities:*
-  Drought & flood monitoring
-  Empirical forecast tools (Constructed Analog)
-  GFS forecast & climate prediction

*** ******Motivation & Background ***

** ****CPC Leaky Bucket Model ****(*****Huang et al 1996*****)**

- Where
-                    W(t) is soil water content, P(t) precipitation, E(t) evaportranspiration,
-                    R(t) net streamflow divergence, G(t) net groundwater loss. ***The ‘balance’ ***
***                   ******of the above equation is defined as the ‘budget’ (should equal dw/dt).***
- Forcing Data:        -CPC daily temperature updates
-                               -CPC daily precipitation updates (Higgins & Shi)
-                               -Monthly precipitation and temperature from NCDC
- Data Coverage:    -73 years (1931-yesterday) on 344 US climate divisions

##  Motivation & Background (cont’) 

##  Motivation & Background (cont’) 

**http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/index.htm**

## Noah Land Surface Model

- user specified number and thickness (2-N).
- Default is four soil layers (10, 30, 60, 100 cm thick)
- Soil hydraulics and parameters follow Cosby et al.
- Canopy resistance follows Jarvis et al.
- Satellite-based annual cycle of vegetation greenness globally:
- 5-year monthly climatology (NESDIS AVHRR
-  NDVI-based)
- Flexible vegetation and soil classes and  their parameters
- easily modified via namelist I/O.  Default: 12 SiB veg classes and 9
- Zobler soil classes (i.e. ISLCP-I)
- Freeze/thaw soil physics follows Koren et al.
- Snowpack density and water-equivalent content modeled
- Patchy/fractional snow cover treated as function of snowdepth & veg type
- Plug-compatible “drop-in” coding structure
- link via one subroutine call and one argument list  & no common blocks

**Noah Land Surface Model**

**  ****Noah LSM Characteristics**

## Slide 8

## Slide 9

## Data validation

## Data validation

## Land Surface Water Budget & Soil Moisture Evolution

- <date/time>

***Land Surface Water Budget & Soil Moisture Evolution***

*P(t) - E(t) - R(t) – G(t)*

## Land Surface Water Budget Over Coterminous USA

- <date/time>

***Land Surface Water Budget Over Coterminous USA***

*P(t) - E(t) - R(t) – G(t)*

## Mon             W                    P            E          R+G        P-E-R-G   1        581.2 (294.2)        52.0         5.5        31.8           14.6   2        592.5 (304.0)        49.8       10.3        33.3             6.2   3        600.0 (308.8)        62.9       24.5        39.1            -0.7   4        595.6 (302.0)        59.4       42.8        30.2          -13.7   5        582.8 (289.8)        70.9       64.8        21.2          -15.1   6        564.6 (276.8)        66.2       75.7        14.2          -23.8   7        538.4 (260.1)        64.8       77.8        10.4          -23.5   8        520.1 (250.0)        62.2       67.6          9.0          -14.3   9        514.3 (248.3)        61.4       49.3          8.8             3.3  10       520.2 (253.3)        51.7       31.9          9.1           10.8  11       539.8 (266.8)        58.0       14.0        13.5           30.5  12       565.8 (282.6)        58.5         4.5        27.3           26.8 

- Year    559.0 (278.1)        59.8       39.1        20.7             0.0
- averaged over 125W-75W, 30N-48N

*Table.1 US monthly values of all components of land surface hydrology *(mm/mon)

## Land Surface Water Budget Over western coast states

- <date/time>

***Land Surface Water Budget Over western coast states***

*P(t) - E(t) - R(t) – G(t)*

##  Mon              W                   P                E             R+G             P-E-R-G  1          595.1 (305.7)       99.0            -1.4            60.1                39.7  2          622.4 (324.4)       79.6             1.3            63.7                15.2  3          636.2 (330.5)       74.5           15.9            70.3               -10.4  4          624.9 (317.4)       47.1           33.3            44.7               -31.6  5          595.2 (293.5)       36.1           53.4            21.5               -39.6  6          554.7 (266.0)       26.3           63.1              8.5               -45.6  7          504.6 (233.1)       13.5           61.9              2.5               -51.0  8          463.4 (207.4)       18.6           43.8              1.3               -26.5  9          450.0 (201.4)       26.3           26.6              1.4                 -1.5 10         460.2 (211.8)       44.7           14.6              3.9                25.7 11         507.0 (247.2)       93.3             3.7            19.4                72.3 12         563.8 (284.5)       97.2            -3.0            46.6                53.5

- Year      548.1 (268.6)       54.7            26.1            28.7                -0.1
-  averaged over 125W-115W, 32N-49N

*Table.2 US west coast states monthly values of all components of land surface hydrology *(mm/mon)

## Land Surface Water Budget Over US Monsoon Region

- <date/time>

***Land Surface Water Budget Over US Monsoon Region***

*P(t) - E(t) - R(t) – G(t)*

## Mon              W                      P              E            R+G        P-E-R-G  1         407.6 (206.5)           19.7          11.1           1.1             7.6 2         414.3 (212.0)           18.6          13.9           1.6             3.2 3         415.1 (211.1)           20.8          21.7           2.1            -3.0 4         404.7 (199.7)           12.2          25.7           1.2          -14.6 5         389.6 (185.3)           15.3          29.6           0.8          -15.2 6         375.9 (172.8)           17.8          28.7           0.7          -11.5 7         372.9 (171.0)           49.3          40.8           1.6             6.9 8         380.8 (179.5)           55.4          47.4           2.0             6.0 9         383.3 (182.0)           38.3          35.1           1.4             1.910        384.6 (183.0)           24.7          22.5           0.8             1.311        388.3 (186.5)           19.5          12.8           0.7             6.012        397.7 (195.6)           24.2            9.4           0.9           13.9

- Year    392.9 (190.4)            26.3          24.9          1.2             0.2
- averaged over 115W-103W, 31N-37N

*Table.3 US monsoon region monthly values of all components of land surface hydrology *(mm/mon)

## Standard Deviation of Land Surface Water Budget components & Soil Moisture from 1960-1998

- <date/time>

***Standard Deviation of Land Surface Water Budget components & Soil Moisture from 1960-1998***

## Land Surface Memory for the Coterminous USA

- <date/time>

***Land Surface Memory for the Coterminous USA***

## Land Surface Memory for US

- <date/time>

***Land Surface Memory for US***

## Land Surface Memory for West Coast States

- <date/time>

***Land Surface Memory for West Coast States***

## Land Surface Memory for US Monsoon Region

- <date/time>

***Land Surface Memory for US Monsoon Region***

## Soil moisture correlation: the west coast states vs all US areas

*Soil moisture correlation: the west coast states vs all US areas*

## Soil moisture correlation: the US monsoon region vs all US areas

*Soil moisture correlation: the US monsoon region vs all US areas*

## Evaporation correlation: the US monsoon region vs all US areas

*Evaporation correlation: the US monsoon region vs all US areas*

## Soil moisture & lag precip & surface temperature correlation: the west coast states vs all US areas

*Soil moisture & lag precip & surface temperature correlation: the west coast states vs all US areas*

## Soil moisture & lag precip & surface temperature correlation: the US monsoon region vs all US areas

*Soil moisture & lag precip & surface temperature correlation: the US monsoon region vs all US areas*

## Summary 

**In general, on a continental scale, the maximum of soil moisture (W) is in winter and the minimum is in summer, with some regional exceptions.**
**For the precipitation (P), the west coast states have a strong seasonal cycle, with maximum in winter and minimum in summer. In US monsoon region P & Florida it peaks in summer, while in some area precipitation does not vary too much over the course of the annual cycle. **
**Evaporation (E) shows a pronounced seasonal cycle: maximum in warm season and minimum in cold season, while the runoff (surface runoff+subsurface runoff) (R) is opposite, with maximum in cold season and minimum in warm season (exception: mountain areas wait till spring melt).**
**Land surface hydrological cycle: most part of the states - land surface water is recharged during the cold season and discharged during the warm season, with some exceptions: the northern part states, snow melt plays an important role for land surface water recharge in the spring. In the US monsoon area discharged in the spring & recharges in the summer. **
**Evolution of land surface memory: depends on time & space.  **
**Impact of land surface memory: **
**The west coast states has more large scale structure **
**US monsoon region seems more localized**

***Summary***** **