# Presentation: 200362

## CENRAP Modeling Activities

**Calvin Ku**
**Missouri DNR**

**Nebraska (NR)**
**Kansas ****(#6)**
**Okalahoma ****(#9)**
**Texas ****(#8)**

** **

**Minnesota**
**Iowa ****(#3)**
**Missouri**
**Arkansas ****(#22)**
**Louisiana ****(#25)**

- ESPN Top 25

-   **EPA Region 6 & 7**

## Modeling Activities

**Practice Modeling**
**Just grab anything you can find **
**WRAP**
**Midwest RPO**
**MM5 Sensitivity Runs**
**Not limited to an absolute configuration**
**May require spatially dependent configurations**
**Preliminary Modeling**
**MM5 – Jan & July 2002 **
**SMOKE – 99 NEI v.2 **
**CMAQ, REMSAD, & PM-CAMx**
**Performance Evaluation Tool**

## Project Summaries

**Iowa DNR Regional Modeling**
** **
**Matthew Johnson**

**1)  MM5 Sensitivity Study****2)  2002 Annual MM5 Modeling**

## Objectives

**Assess the impacts of logical MM5 configurations upon model performance**
**Determine a ‘best approach’ method to MM5 regional meteorological modeling at 36 km**
**Practice statistically significant and scientifically sound methods of model evaluation**
**Utilize a cooperative approach**

## MM5 Performance Evaluation(Sensitivity Study Project)

**Cooperative project involving States, RPOs & contractors**
**Matthew Johnson*****	****	****Iowa DNR****	**
**Kirk Baker*****	****	****	****LADCO**
**Mike Abraczinskas****	****	****North Carolina**
**Wyat Appel****	****	****	****North Carolina**
**Dennis McNally****	****	****Alpine Geophysics**

***  Lead Workers**

## Methods

**Starting from a basecase configuration, model physics options and settings were modified and episodes re-run**
**Common configuration:**
**2 Episodes:  January & July 1****st****-17****th****, 2001 (July primary****)**
**Run in 5 day blocks, with 12 hours of spin-up (17 hrs if modeling midnight-midnight CDT)**
**Initialized at 12Z**
**National RPO 36 km domain**
**Sensitivity studies included:**

**Cumulus schemes**
**Moisture schemes**
**PBL schemes **
**Land surface models **
**     ****(OSU & Pleim-Xiu)**

**Eta Analysis vs Eta Init**
**Z-FAC modifications**
**Shallow convection**
**Use of NCEP SST**
**Use of FDDA in/above PBL**
**Vertical structure**

## Proposed Sensitivities*

- *Not cast in stone

**+****Completed**

## Analysis

**Quantitative and qualitative approach**
**Focus upon the quantitative analysis**
**(personnel & time constraints limiting factors in the qualitative assessment)**
**Metstat (courtesy of Environ) tool of choice**
**Readily calculates bias, error (gross & RMSE), index of agreement and produces timelines of observed vs modeled values for surface W****s ****/ W****D****, T, and q**

**Statistics calculated for 11 subdomain regions**
**Domain averaged metrics of little use due to error cancellation**

- 1

- 2

- 3

- 4

- 5

- 6

- 7

- 8

- 9

- 10

- 11

## Results

**Pleim-Xiu**** scheme yielded significant & widespread improvements over all configurations in all regions, particularly in July**
**January evaluation shows no clear disbenefits, and minor benefits**
**Greatest benefits obtained when PX uses continuos soil T****&****q fields**
**Requires use of INTERPX ****&**** that the 5-day blocks be run sequentially**

- Basecase

- Pleim-Xiu

**Calvin:  The graphs shown are for example purposes:  The data is from the Northern Cenrap Domain & the July simulation.**
**Of importance:  The improvement in the obs vs modeled wind speeds **
**& The decrease in the errors and bias of temperature and humidity prediction when using the Pleim-Xiu scheme vs the basecase configuration**

## 2002 Annual MM5 SimulationMatthew Johnson  --  Iowa DNR

**Results from the MM5 sensitivity analysis drove model configuration**
**MM5 V3-5 (Release 1) *****with *****the recent updates to PX scheme**
**Modeling of the 1****st**** & 2****nd**** quarters ****underway**
**Estimated completion:  mid-late 2003 (data availability key)**

**Pleim-Xiu LSM/PBL scheme**
**Continuous soil q & T option**
**Requires use of INTERPX & sequential modeling **
**Annual run separated into quarters with 2-3 weeks of spin-up**
**Each quarterly run comprised of twenty-seven 5 day blocks**

**Eta data initialization**
**34 vertical levels**
**RRTM radiation**
**Kain-Fritsch cumulus**
**Analysis & sfc nudging**
**Cooperating w/ Dennis McNally to ‘harmonize’ the 2001 & 2002 projects**

**Configuration**

## CENRAP Meteorological Modeling

**Metoerological modeling to support initial CENRAP modeling effort.**
**Meteorological/Photochemical Modeling Evaluation Exercise**
**MM5 - National RPO Projection **
**January 2002: Kansas Dept. of Health and Environment**
**July 2002: EPA Region VII**
**MM5 Modeling - To Be Completed in December 2002**
**Performance Analysis**
**MCIP Processing**
**Final Report**
**Initial Configuration - Based in part upon Iowa/LADCO MM5 sensitivity analyses:**
**34 Vertical Levels**
**Pleim-Xu PBL/Soil LSM**
**Kain-Fritsch Cumulus**
**Reisner 2 Microphysics **
**RRTM Radiation**
**Performance Evaluation**
**Statistical Analysis: Metstat Package - Environ**
**Prognositic Chart/Satellite Analysis: Vis5D/RIP**
**Additional Analyses:**
**LSM w/ Grell Cumulus - clouds/precipitation comparison with Kain-Fritsch**

## Performance Statistics - Metstats

**Visual Analysis - Vis5D**

## Visual Analysis - RIP (Read/Interpolate/Plot) Package

**Visual Analysis - RIP (Read/Interpolate/Plot) Package**