# Presentation: 755435

## Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 

- Hordur Thordarson
- Aviation Services Division
-  Forecasting Operations
- 22 June 2004

**~**

**Notes:**
1. Introduction. Who do I work for?

2. I will be discussing our perspective's on volcanic ash warnings.

3. I am originally from Iceland where this background image was photographed during a volcanic eruption under Europe’s largest glacier, Vatnajokull.

4. Time is short. Please feel free to discuss any of this with me personally later on.

## The Meteorological Service of New Zealand

*MWO and VAAC (Wellington VAAC)*
*Aims to provide timely, accurate and useful SIGMETs and VAA messages.*
*Seeks to improve the quality of the information used.*

**Notes:**
1. Is a MWO and a VAAC,

2. provides SIGMETS and VAA messages

3. and seeks to improve the quality of information used to generate these messages..

**Notes:**
1. Within New Zealand high quality information about ongoing eruptions is available but this is often not the case in the outer reaches of the VAAC area.

## The aim of this presentation

*Discuss the VAA format and SIGMETs.*
*Discuss our operational experience via a real example.*
*What has interaction with the aviation industry taught us?*

**Notes:**
1. Discuss the VAA format, SIGMETs,

2. our operational experience via a real example

3. and lessons we have learned from interaction with the aviation industry.

## The VAA format (questions)

*Who was the VAA intended for?*
*Should the VAA format be simplified?*
* **Should the ash envelope at +6, +12 and +18 hours always be specified?*
*Is the expectation of accuracy associated with VAA too great?*

**Notes:**
At this stage I would like to pose some questions regarding the VAA format and answer them later on.

1. Who was the VAA intended for?

2. should it be simplified?

3. Should the ash envelope always be specified?

4. Is the expectation of accuracy too great?

## SIGMETs

*Are MWOs issuing SIGMETs when they should?*
*SIGMETs should be the primary real time warning mechanism for end users.*
*If SIGMETs are not being issued as the need arises, then work should be done to solve this problem.*
*The difference between SIGMETs and Advisories needs to be clear.*

**Notes:**
1. MWOs are not always issuing SIGMETs when they should be doing so.

2. We believe that SIGMETs, NOT VAA advisories or some other product should be the primary warning mechanism for end users.

3. If SIGMETs are not being issued when they should be, then this is a problem that needs to be addressed DIRECTLY. This should be done, rather than skirting the issue by attempting to create a new product that could have other problems and complications associated with it. 

4. The difference between SIGMETs and VAA advisories needs to be clear to all concerned.

## The eruption of Lopevi in June 2003

**Notes:**
1. To make this more interesting and to clarify our points I would like to discuss the eruption of Lopevi in June 2003. Lopevi is one of many active volcanoes in the Republic of Vanuatu, located in the SW Pacific.

## Lopevi, a volcanic cone rising 5000ft above the sea surface.

**Notes:**
1. A view of Lopevi, a volcanic cone rising 5000ft above the sea surface.

**Notes:**
1. This is a satellite image of a recent eruption of the volcano Ambrym in Vanuatu. In this case the Wellington VAAC did not receive information regarding the eruption.  This does highlight the difficulty associated with receiving timely, accurate and reliable observations from remote areas.

2. Note the small island on the lower right. This is the active volcano Lopevi which erupted in June 2003 and I would like to discuss our operational experience during this eruption.

3. Few observations were available during this most recent Lopevi eruption and the quality of these was questionable at times.

## Some flight routes to/from LAX

**Notes:**
1. Discuss the location of Vanuatu relative to flight routes.

## Available observations from Lopevi

*Initial observation: 8-June-2003 00:55 UTC: Ash up to 40.000ft+. Massive rate of growth. Colour of plume Black/Brown becoming white at high altitude. (Observer at 5000ft)*
*8-June to 14-June. Received 7 direct observations. Only 2 of these mention ash above 10.000ft.*
*Satellite imagery was not useful.*

**Notes:**
1. The observer was at 5000ft and the height of ash plume must have been difficult to determine. Did the plume reach 40, 50, or perhaps just 30 thousand feet? There was no way to verify this using satellite imagery since high cloud covered the area. The distribution of the ash envelope and the impact on aviation is of course highly dependant upon the height of the ash plume.

2. Few observations available at later stages of the eruption. 

2. Satellite imagery was not useful in this case. High cloud obscured the area at critical stages of the eruption.  

## What does this case show?

*A high degree of accuracy can not always be associated with VA advisories. The ash envelope can not always be described with a high degree of precision.*
*Good observations needed to produce good model output. Garbage in = garbage out.*

**Notes:**
1. VAA advisories can sometimes give little more than rough estimates of ash envelopes. Specifying ash envelopes far into the future with high precision can be misleading.

2. Computer models have achieved a high level of performance. However, when initial observations are of poor quality, then output from the models will reflect this.

## What about end users?

*They need to understand the limitations of VA advisories.*
*They might gain financially by contributing to the cost of direct observations.*

**Notes:**
1. End users need to understand what VAA advisories are and the limitations associated with them.

2. Everyone gains. A small investment in observations could result in major operational savings. Reconnaissance flights by a light aircraft are of course far cheaper than diversions or cancellations of trans-Pacific flights.

## Lessons learned from interaction with the aviation industry

*Their needs are relatively simple. Information must be easy to understand.*
*Most important to have access to accurate, reliable information. (Useful real time data available on the flight deck).*
*Warnings/advisories ****must**** be timely.*

**Notes:**
1. Clear, simple products are what the industry wants. Adding complexity such as ambiguous colour coding will not be helpful.

2. Access to information is crucial. Useful real time data should be available on the flight deck.

3. Timeliness is of utmost importance.

## What needs to be improved?

*Direct observations and remote sensing.*
*Education, knowledge of typical eruption patterns.*
*The ability of MWOs to issue SIGMETs.*
*Interaction between ATS, geological and meteorological services.*

**Notes:**
1. In some cases a small investment in direct observations can bring major operational dividends. Remote sensing needs to be improved. 

2. Everyone involved needs education. Typical eruption patterns for major volcanoes, effects of volcanic ash etc. need to be known by all involved.

3. Responsible MWOs need to be enabled to issue SIGMETS.

4. All agencies involved should maintain close collaboration. 

## The VAA format (answers)

*The VAA was initially an exclusive information sharing mechanism between VAA Centres and MW Offices.*
*It should be simplified*
*The ash envelope at +6, +12 and +18 hours can not always be realistically specified.*
*The expectation of accuracy associated with the VAA is too great at times.*

**Notes:**
1. The VAA was initially an information sharing mechanism between VAA Centres and MWOs. It was not intended as a warning message for aviation. Somehow the VAA has acquired a life of it’s own with ambiguity regarding precisely what it’s role should be. Many parties have been involved with the development of the VAA and too many cooks have perhaps spoiled the brew.

2. The current format can sometimes contribute to mistaken assumptions regarding the accuracy of the advisory. Our experience is that complex VAA advisories are not helpful.

3. The ash envelope can not always realistically be specified.

4. The expectation of accuracy is probably too great at times.

## Situation within New Zealand

*An effective Volcanic Ash Advisory System is provided  through interactions of aircraft operators, CAA, ACNZ, IGNS and the MetService of New Zealand.*
*The issues illustrated in the case study do not present problems within New Zealand.*

**Notes:**
1. Peter Lechner from the CAA will describe the New Zealand Volcanic Ash Advisory System tomorrow morning. In contrast to the situation in remote areas such as Vanuatu, a comprehensive system for monitoring and observing volcanoes and a system for interaction between the agencies involved is in place.

## Slide 19

**Notes:**
Finally, while we look at this dramatic photo of an Icelandic volcano spewing ash and steam and a small aircraft making a reconnaissance flight, lets reflect on the main points of this presentation.
Let’s try to keep things simple. Timely, simple, realistic warnings are what the users want. We must keep that in mind and avoid unnecessary complications that can fuel unrealistic expectations and cause confusion.
Thank you very much for your attention.

## Slide 20