# Presentation: 189621

## Becoming Certain about Uncertainty

- Below are slides from a talk presented at the NWFSC that lay out a framework for a research plan for the Center.  These are posted here so that researchers at the NWFSC can review the slides and provide comments to their division’s representative.  This is very much a work in progress, and we look forward to receiving comments.
- The crafting of the document is underway and will be complete shortly.  Comments provided by Tues, May 16 will be most useful.

- very much a DRAFT

## Becoming Certain about Uncertainty

*A Salmon Research Plan for the Northwest Fisheries Science Center*

| Phillip Levin, CRI
Peter Karieva, CRI
Tim Beechie, EC
Edmundo Casillas, FE 
Walt Dickhoff, REUT 
 | Paul McElhany, CB
Norma Sands, FRAM
John Williams, FE
Michael Schiewe, FE |
| --- | --- |

- very much a DRAFT

## General Goals

***Not**** *to create extensive lists of research projects

- very much a DRAFT

## 2.	Identify general research questions that, when answered, will unequivocally inform policy makers 
1.	Outline an approach to answering these questions that is based on tests of multiple working hypotheses 
3.	Highlight specific critical hypotheses and the means to tests these hypotheses 

- 1.	Outline an approach to answering these questions that is based on tests of **multiple working hypotheses**
- 3.	Highlight **specific critical hypotheses** and the means to tests these hypotheses

- General Goals

- very much a DRAFT

## The problem

- Major policy decisions are being made with only ambiguous and vague scientific input
- Complexities of the factors affecting salmon and
- Concomitant scientific uncertainty
- Science becomes marginalized in the decision making process

- very much a DRAFT

## We must be more certain about our uncertainties 

- Salmon biologists must provide clearer accounts of information
- We must identify where and when we are uncertain
- We must provide information even though it is uncertain
- We must offer advice about the consequences of our uncertainty

- very much a DRAFT

- Data, without relationship to precisely formulated hypotheses, are scientifically meaningless, boring and will soon be forgotten (Dayton 1979)
*Passive science* in which historical data are periodically used to parameterize models prevents the resolution of uncertainties (Walters and Hilborn 1976)

**What should we do differently?**

- very much a DRAFT

## What should we do differently?

- Experiments, not measurements, offer the greatest hope of solving the salmon problem
*Manipulative experiments* involve assigning some treatment to experiment units.  At a minimum two treatments or manipulations are required; a treatment and control.
*Mensurative experiments *involve making some measurements without the application of a treatment.
- But with the concept of hypothesis testing in mind

- very much a DRAFT

## HEApDO: The New Paradigm

- We don’t depart from the familiar H40 formatBUT
- We emphasize that the integration of the H’s with each other through the life cycle is paramount to the rapid resolution of key uncertainties

- very much a DRAFT

## The fundamentals

- Broad, overarching issues that cross all bounds known to humankind
- Definition of ecological and genetic salmon populations
- Development of effective monitoring and evaluation programs
**Bold** interdisciplinary management experiments

- very much a DRAFT

## 5 Big questions, 10 critical hypotheses, & 3 key inquiries

- When appropriate, we emphasize ANOVA-like thinking
- Main effects
- Covariates
**Interactions**

- very much a DRAFT

## What is the role of hydropower projects relative to other natural or anthropogenic sources of variability in preventing recovery of salmonids?

**H****1**:  The passage history of individual fish through the migration corridor determines life-time fitness
- Approach:
- PIT Tag Parr in streams (N  20)
- weight, length of fish initially and every time recaptured
- ANOVA with (1) marine survival, (2) fecundity (maybe) and (3) condition indices as response variables and passage history as a main effect.

- very much a DRAFT

## H2:  The experience of fish through the migration corridor interacts with processes affecting fish prior to entering the mainstem or after entering the ocean and determines life-time fitness. 
Approach
Extension of H1
PIT tagged fish are in streams for which detailed habitat information exists (Salmon R.)
Add critical habitat variable(s) as covariates to previous ANOVA model 
Add climate indices or measures of ocean productivity as covariates 

- Approach
- Extension of H1
- PIT tagged fish are in streams for which detailed habitat information exists (Salmon R.)
- Add critical habitat variable(s) as covariates to previous ANOVA model
- Add climate indices or measures of ocean productivity as covariates

- What is the role of ***hydropower*** projects relative to other natural or anthropogenic sources of variability in preventing recovery of salmonids?

- very much a DRAFT

## Is this any different from what we’ve been doing?

***Yes***
- Focus on “*treatment groups of fish*” (passage histories) _within the same year_
- No need to fit population models and examine patterns of residuals
- Based on REAL DATA
*Note the potential for manipulative experiments by forcing different passage histories*

- very much a DRAFT

## Can releases of hatchery fish be used to (a) support sustainable fisheries without harming wild stocks and (b) aid in the recovery of wild stocks?

**H****3**:  Hatchery fish used for supplementation have no ecological impact on wild stocks.
- Approach - Freshwater
- Borrow from standard protocol from community ecology
- Manipulate presence / absence of hatchery fish
- PIT tag, weigh, measure fish
- Recapture to get growth and changes in condition
- Measure survival through the migration corridor and beyond
- Coordinate with hydro-habitat above and get hatchery-habitat-hydro interactions

- very much a DRAFT

## Can releases of hatchery fish be used to (a) support sustainable fisheries without harming wild stocks and (b) aid in the recovery of wild stocks?

- Approach – Marine
- Mensurative
- Take advantage of varying ocean conditions and basin-wide hatchery releases
- Experimental
- Are basin-wide experiments manipulating hatcheries possible?

- very much a DRAFT

## H4: Conservation hatcheries can aid in the recovery of wild stocks.
H5:  Gene flow from hatchery fish compromises local adaptation or otherwise results in a lowering of fitness 
Approach
use molecular markers to follow the fate of individuals derived from hatchery, wild and “hybrid” matings that occur in both the natural and hatchery environment

**H****5**:  Gene flow from hatchery fish compromises local adaptation or otherwise results in a lowering of fitness
- Approach
- use molecular markers to follow the fate of individuals derived from hatchery, wild and “hybrid” matings that occur in both the natural and hatchery environment

- Can releases of ***hatchery*** fish be used to (a) support sustainable fisheries without harming wild stocks and (b) aid in the recovery of wild stocks?

- very much a DRAFT

## To what extent does the quantity and quality of freshwater habitat affect abundance and population growth of pacific salmonids?

- What are the appropriate quantitative tools and approaches for identifying target habitats for salmon protection and/or habitat restoration?
- catalogue habitats available to salmon, with
- quantification of their current value and future (if restored) value to salmon production

- very much a DRAFT

## The statistical challenge involves 
choice of scale, 
choice of habitat variables to enter into the analyses (and how to enter them)
importance mutable habitat attributes vs. fixed physical and hydrological constraints

- choice of scale,
- choice of habitat variables to enter into the analyses (and how to enter them)
- importance mutable habitat attributes vs. fixed physical and hydrological constraints

- To what extent does the quantity and quality of freshwater ***habitat*** affect abundance and population growth of pacific salmonids?

- very much a DRAFT

## H6:  Recovery and restoration of stream habitats result in increased smolt production from freshwater systems
Isn’t this trivial?  Nope.
Approach
Task 1.  Determine how recovery and restoration of off-channel habitats affect smolt production
describe where off-channels tend to occur naturally
how long they tend to persist given their location on the landscape, and 
which chemical and biological processes influence fish production in different off-channel habitats.

- Isn’t this trivial?  Nope.
- Approach
***Task 1.  Determine how recovery and restoration of off-channel habitats affect smolt production***
- describe where off-channels tend to occur naturally
- how long they tend to persist given their location on the landscape, and
- which chemical and biological processes influence fish production in different off-channel habitats.

- To what extent does the quantity and quality of freshwater ***habitat*** affect abundance and population growth of pacific salmonids?

- very much a DRAFT

## Task 2. Use experimental off-channel restoration projects to describe the relationships between habitat morphology, chemical and biological attributes, and fish density.  
H7: Water pollution limits salmon production

**H****7**: Water pollution limits salmon production

- To what extent does the quantity and quality of freshwater ***habitat*** affect abundance and population growth of pacific salmonids?

- very much a DRAFT

## Is exploitation of salmonids compatible with recovery?

**Q****1**:  Are the current exploitation rates on salmon populations within the listed ESUs restrictive enough to allow for recovery of the stocks?
- Approach
- develop models of population change with harvest as a mortality factor, and
- then analyze algorithms used to decide if harvest does not contribute appreciably to jeopardy for the species
- critical to ask “how might we be getting it wrong by using current decision-frameworks to decide on harvest levels?”

- very much a DRAFT

## Q2:  Can selective harvest be developed as a tool for allowing both harvest and recovery of threatened and endangered stocks? 
implementation depends on information that is often only poorly known
e.g., models may need to include ecological interactions between different stocks in terms of competition (or predation), when those stocks comprise hatchery versus wild fish. 

- implementation depends on information that is often only poorly known
- e.g., models may need to include ecological interactions between different stocks in terms of competition (or predation), when those stocks comprise hatchery versus wild fish.

- Is exploitation of salmonids compatible with recovery?

- very much a DRAFT

## How do climate / ocean conditions directly or indirectly affect salmon stocks

**H****8**:  Salmon from different stocks or life history types are not randomly distributed in the ocean during their first year in the sea.
- Approach
- sample transects that extend from the coast to the shelf from San Francisco to west of Kodiak Island, Alaska using surface trawl gear

- very much a DRAFT

## H9:  Variability in cohort strength is determined by ocean conditions during the first summer and winter a fish is at sea. 
Approach
Correlate abundance of fish sampled, condition of fish,and year class strength with
 physical oceanography, 1o / 2o production, and predator abundance
H10:  Most mortality of smolts occurs in the lower river and estuary

- Approach
- Correlate abundance of fish sampled, condition of fish,and year class strength with
-  physical oceanography, 1o / 2o production, and predator abundance
**H****10**:  Most mortality of smolts occurs in the lower river and estuary

- How do climate / ocean conditions directly or indirectly affect salmon stocks

- very much a DRAFT

## 5 Big questions, 10 critical hypotheses, & 3 key inquiries

- Is that it?
- Not really
- Are these fundamental to resolving or defining uncertainty
- arguably yes
- Rigorous tests of clearly stated* hypotheses* will improve the ability of science to unambiguously inform policy makers

- very much a DRAFT