# Presentation: 220759

## Results from Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) 2006 programs

- Yucheng Song**              IMSG at EMC/NCEP**
- Zoltan Toth**                     EMC/NCEP/NWS                      **
- Sharan Majumdar**              Univ. of Miami**
- Craig H. Bishop**                                 NRL**
- Roy Smith**                       NCO/NCEP/NWS**
**http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/targobs/**

## Acknowledgments

**NWS field offices, HPC/NCEP and SDMs**
**NOAA G-IV and the USAFR C-130 flight crews**
**CARCAH (John Pavone)**
**Jack Woollen - EMC**
**Russ Treadon - EMC**
**Mark Iredell - EMC**
**Istvan Szunyogh – Univ. of Maryland**
***+ others who have contributed!***

## About the Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR 2006) Program

**Took place 27 Jan – 9 March 2006**
**Dropwinsonde observations taken over the NE Pacific by aircraft operated by NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center (G-IV) and the US Air Force Reserve (C-130s).**
**Observations are adaptive – **
**collected only prior to significant winter weather events of interest **
**in areas that might influence forecast the most.**
**Operational since January 2001**
**26 flights, around 342 dropsondes this winter which is reduced from ****50****0 drops last year**

## ETKF-based targeting strategy

**ETKF method identifies expected maximum error reduction region in Northern Pacific**

## Formulation of ETKF

## Formulation of ETKF

## Blizzard of 2006(Feb 11-13,2006)

**02/04/2006 18UTC 1****44****hr FCST valid 02/1****0****/2006 ****18****UTC NCEP**
**Precip****itation,**** surface pressure**** and 1000-500mb thickness**

**02/05/2006 12UTC ****126****hr FCST valid 02/10/2006 018 UTC NCEP**

## Blizzard of 2006(Feb 11-13,2006)

**02/07/2006 18UTC 108hr FCST valid 02/12/2006 06UTC NCEP**** ****Precip****itation****, surface pressure**** and 1000-500mb thickness**

**02/08/2006 12UTC 90hr FCST valid ****at ****02/12/2006 06UTC NCEP**

## NOAA G-IV and US Air Force Reserve (C-130s)

- Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System  (AVAPS) deployed

## Evaluation methodology

**Compare two parallel runs from NCEP GFS analysis and forecast cycles (T126L28 resolution)**
**Operational: including all operationally available data (includes dropsondes)**
**Control: excluding only dropsonde data in the targeted area**
**Verify against observations over the pre-selected area of interest (verification region)**
**Rawinsonde observations for surface pressure, 1000-250mb temperature, wind speed and moisture**
**Rain gauge data for precipitation**

## Forecast Impact(March 7,2006)

- SLP and precipitation

- 500mb Z

## Overall results for Surface Pressure

- 13 improved
-   0 neutral
- 14 degraded

## Overall results for Temperature

- Of the cases:
- 22 improved
-   1 neutral
-   7 degraded

## Overall results for Vector Wind

- Of all cases:
- 19 improved
-   0 neutral
- 11 degraded

## Overall results for Specific humidity

- Of all cases:
- 19 improved
-    0 neutral
- 11 degraded

##     Forecast Verification for Wind

**RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time**

## Breakdown for cases

| Variable | # cases improved | # cases neutral | #cases degraded |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Surface pressure | 13 | 0 | 14 |
| Temperature | 17 | 0 | 10 |
| Vector Wind | 21 | 0 | 6 |
| Humidity | 13 | 0 | 14 |

** **

## Individual Case Comparison

-   **1    denotes positive effect**
**  ****0    denotes neutral effect**
** ****-1  denotes negative effect**

**          **
**       **
**19**** OVERALL POSITIVE             **
**0****  OVERALL  NEUTRAL **
**8**** OVERALL  NEGATIVE**
**           ****7****0*****% improved***
***           ******30****** ******% degraded***

- OVERALL EFFECT:

-  VR  OBSDATE   P    T    V   OVERALL   REGION  FHOUR
-   W 20060127   1    1    1    1     124W ,45N    48
-   E 20060129  -1   -1    1   -1      75W ,40N    72
-   E 20060201   1    1    1    1      83W ,36N    72
-   W 20060203  -1    1   -1   -1     124W ,42N    36
-   E 20060203   1    1    1    1      84W ,35N    48
-   E 20060204  -1   -1    1   -1      68W ,45N    48
-  AK 20060206  -1    1    1    1     140W ,60N    24
-   W 20060209  -1   -1   -1   -1     122W ,45N    60
-  AK 20060210   1    1    1    1     131W ,55N    60
-  AK 20060212   1   -1    1    1     140W ,60N    12
-   E 20060214  -1   -1   -1   -1      88W ,42N    84
-   E 20060221  -1    1    1    1      87W ,42N    48
-   C 20060221   1   -1    1    1      95W ,33N    48
-   W 20060223   1    1   -1    1     120W ,47N    24
-   W 20060225  -1   -1    1   -1     122W ,40N    72
-   W 20060226   1   -1   -1   -1     122W ,40N    36
-  AK 20060226   1    1    1    1     150W ,60N    48
-   W 20060227  -1    1    1    1     118W ,34N    36
-   H 20060227  -1    1    1    1     158W ,22N    84
-   W 20060301   1   -1    1    1     124W ,42N    24
-   W 20060303  -1    1    1    1     123W ,45N    84
-   W 20060304   1    1    1    1     123W ,40N    48
-   W 20060305  -1    1    1    1     121W ,40N    36
-   W 20060307   1    1   -1    1     122W ,46N    48
-   C 20060307   1    1    1    1      90W ,37N    60
-   E 20060307  -1   -1    1   -1      85W ,45N    84
-   E 20060309  -1    1    1    1      80W ,50N    84

## Issues and what we’ve learned

**“****It seems that if the signal affecting the verification region is coming from high latitudes, forecasts are hard to improve”**
**This highlights the need for high latitude measurement! Possibilities:**
**     ****UAS?**
**     ****DWL?**
***     ***

## Future Work

**Improve ensemble products to give better guidance to HPC and SDMs**
**using “energy norms” in addition to the conventional products**
**Better ensemble products**
**Improve targeting method based on  ETKF method with increasing resolution and ensemble membership**
**Explore parallel structure of the codes **
**Improve verification techniques**
**WSR 2007 will increase more ensemble members from ECMWF, NCEP and CMC**