# Presentation: 221801

## SAB PRECIPITATION PROGRAM

**SAMPLE OF PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS FOR TROPICAL STORM ALLISON**

**SPENES**
**Message**

**SAB PRECIPITATION PROGRAM**

_**TROPICAL STORM ALLISON AND ITS REMNANTS – June 5 to 17, 2001 (12 days duration)**_

- 118 SPENES Messages sent by SAB and 115 Estimate Graphics on the Internet

- SPENES Message

- IR -  2245Z/June 5, 2001

- Visible 2245Z

- 6 hour Auto-Estimates

- 3/9/04

**Notes:**
 Here is a sample of 2 of the precipitation products that were sent in support of the heavy rainfall with Tropical Storm Allison.
In the background are 2 GOES-8 satellite images (Infrared and Visible) showing Allison as the storm first moved inland into southeast Texas with the center and the heavy rains near Houston on the afternoon of June 5th at 2245GMT.
The product on the left is a 6 hour estimate graphic of rainfall in the Houston area through 0200GMT on June 6 produced by the Auto-Estimator.  This product was on the Internet on the SSD home page.  A maximum estimate of 6 inches is shown.
The text product on the right is an SPENES message that was transmitted on the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) to the National Weather Service Forecast Offices as flash flood guidance.  This message along with the graphic was also on the SSD homepage.

## WHY ARE SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES USED/NEEDED?

**SUPPLEMENTS RADAR AND RAIN GAUGES** – where there is inadequate rain gauge coverage, no radar coverage, or missing radar coverage
**SPATIAL CONSISTENCY**** – **only one instrument (GOES satellite) to calibrate rather than multiple radars.  Thus there are no calibration differences, range effects, or beam block problems that can occur with radar.

## Slide 3

## 1979  First Estimates
1983 - Fully Operational                                                                    	-  using McIDAS  system                                                                             	-  SPENES messages on AFOS
1993 - Collocated with NCEP/HPC, forming NPPU                            	-  better QPF support
1996 - Estimate Graphics and SPENES messages on Internet                                                                       	-  SSD Web Page
1997 - Orographic Correction added                                                      	-  for short-term estimates
2000 - Combined IFFA/Auto-Estimator Operation
2002 – Hydroestimator – new version of Auto-Estimator

**1983 - Fully Operational                                                                    ****	****-  **using McIDAS  system                                                                             	-  SPENES messages on AFOS
**1993 - Collocated with NCEP/HPC, forming NPPU                            ****	****-  **better QPF support
**1996 - Estimate Graphics and SPENES messages on Internet                                                                       ****	****-  **SSD Web Page
**1997 - Orographic Correction added                                                      ****	****-  **for short-term estimates
**2000 - Combined IFFA/Auto-Estimator Operation**
**2002 – Hydroestimator – new version of Auto-Estimator**

**HISTORY OF IFFA/QPE OPERATION**

## Satellite Analysis BranchPrecipitation Products and Services

**For WSFO’s and RFC’s (lower 48 states; Puerto Rico):**
-   1) Satellite Precipitation Estimate Messages (SPENES)
-   2)  Satellite Precipitation Estimate Graphics
-   .....For Heavy Precip.,especially Flash Flood Events
-  **For Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC):**
-     Satellite Briefings and Precipitation Estimates

## SPENES Contents

**SPENES Contents**

**1.  IFFA/Autoestimator/Hydroestimator Rain Est.**
**     ****(Hourly rates; 1, 3, 6, 24 Hour Totals**

**2.  Satellite Analysis and Trends (and nowcast)**
**     **

**     **
**     ****Satellite Data Used:**
**     ****GOES IR, VIS, WV**
**      ****GOES Sounder and Imager Data and Derived Product Imagery (DPI)**
**      ****GOES Satellite Winds                                                                                                                         **
**     **** ****Microwave:  DMSP SSM/I  (rain rates and PW)**
**                             ****NOAA AMSU (rain rates, PW)**
**                             ****NASA TRMM (rain rates)**
**      **

## Additional Input for SPENES’s

-  Surface and Upper Air Data and Analyses

-  Radar – NAWIPS and McIDAS

-  Model Data - from AWIPS and NCEP NAWIPS

-  Experimental Blended Products - satellite and model data

-  Internet Data

## Example of SPENES with manual IFFA estimates for Lake Effect Snow

- SPENES
- TTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM
- .
- SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/29/04 1130Z
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
- VALUES ARE MAX OR SGFNT EST. OROGRAPHIC CORRECTION IN AUTO-ESTS..
- EST'S FM:/GOES12-CNTRL AND E. U.S./GOES10-W. U.S...
-                         LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0215Z GALLINA
- .
- LOCATION...NEW YORK...
- .
- EVENT...VERY STRONG LES OFF LK ONTARIO/QUIETED DOWN OFF LK ERIE...
- .
- GOES ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPDATE FROM LAST SPE...AREA OF COOL CLOUD TOPS
- ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE ERIE LES HAS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AND HAS DIMINISHED IN
- SIZE AND IS REALLY ONLY RELEGATED TO CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES IN
- WESTERN NY. TOTALS UP TO 2.6 HAVE BEEN ESITIMATED IN S ERIE.
- ELSEWHERE...WAVERING WIND DIRECTION HAS DECREASED THE WIDTH OF THE VERY LONG
- LAKE EFFECT WEST-EAST BAND NEAR THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE INTO OSWEGO
- COUNTY. RATES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH AND 6 HOUR TOTALS ARE UP TO 5.6".
- INTERESTING TO NOTE AT THIS POINT IS THE PERSISTENT COOLING TOPS JUST NORTH OF
- MONROE AND ORLEANS COUNTIES.  THIS AREA HAS HAD INCREASED FETCH DUE TO SEEDING
- FROM THE LAKE EFFECT PLUME FROM ST. GEORGES BAY ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. IF THIS
- PLUME WERE TO MOVE ONSHORE...ESTIMATED RATES WOULD BE UP TO 3.5"/HR USING THE
- LES IR TECHNIQUE.  NOTE ON THE GRAPHIC...THERE ARE HIGH ESTIMATES IN ORLEANS
- COUNTY ALREADY...BUT THIS IS AN EFFECT OF PARALLAX CORRECTIONS AND SHOULD BE
- SHIFTED ABOUT A HALF COUNTY NORTH.
- .
- IFFA LAKE EFFECT SNOW ESTIMATES...    6 HR SNOW TOTALS    TIME
- C NY...OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
-  N OSWEGO                                   5.6"       0515Z-1115Z
-  S JEFFERSON                                3.9"
-  N ONEIDA                                   3.3"
-  N ORLEANS                                  2.2"
- W NY...OFF LAKE ERIE...
-  S ERIE (BOARDER WITH CATTARAUGUS)          2.6"            "
-  CHAUTAUQUA                                 2.3"            "
-  CATTARAUGUS                                2.3"            "
- .
- GRAPHIC FOR THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY ON THE INTERNET AT ADDRESS BELOW.
- .
- 1 HOUR HYDRO-ESTIMATOR TOTALS ARE AVAILABLE ON AWIPS UNDER 1 HR AUTO SPE
- .
- HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
- ...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT PS/PCPN...
- [ONLINE SSD PRECIP PRODUCT INDEX]
- .
- LAT...LON 4400 7900 4500 7400 4300 7500 4200 8000
- NNNN

_**Example of SPENES with manual IFFA estimates for Lake Effect Snow**_

##  IFFA (Snow) Estimate Graphic posted on Web Page -  EXAMPLE

** ****IFFA (Snow) Estimate Graphic posted on Web Page -  **_**EXAMPLE**_

## Example  of SPENES message with automated  satellite Hydroestimates

- SPENES
- TTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM
- .
- SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/04/04 1155Z
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
- VALUES ARE MAX OR SGFNT EST. OROGRAPHIC CORRECTION IN AUTO-ESTS..
- EST'S FM:/GOES12-CNTRL AND E. U.S./GOES10-W. U.S...
-                           LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1145Z   TEB
- .
- LOCATION...OKLAHOMA
- .
- ATTN WFO'S...OUN...ICT
- .
- EVENT...CONVECTION.
- .
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING CLOUD
- TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING LINE OF CELLS.  WV AND SOUNDER
- DATA SHOWS THESE CELLS TO BE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
- ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLUME SHOOTING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS INTO
- EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THE HYDROESTIMATOR SUGGESTS HRLY RATES UP TO 1.4" THRU
- 1130Z MAINLY FROM OKLAHOMA INTO LINCOLN CNTYS IN CENTRAL OK.  HOWEVER
- WITH DEWPOINTS RISING QUICKLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
- AFOREMENTIONED PLUME TRANSPORTING RICH, DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD...FFG
- RATES MAY BE REACHABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
- OF OK AND S.E. KS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
- .
- AUTOMATED SATELLITE HYDROESTIMATES
- OK CNTYS...     TOTAL   TIME
-  N.E. OKLAHOMA  1.9"    0830-1130Z
- .
- SEE GRAPHIC OF AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT WEB ADDRESS LISTED BELOW
- .
- 1 HR HYDRO-ESTIMATOR TOTALS ARE ON AWIPS UNDER 1 HOUR AUTO SPE
- .
- ..NESDIS SAB HAS BEEN ADDED TO 12 PLANET...
- .
- SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST
- .
- HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
- ...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT PS/PCPN...
- [ONLINE SSD PRECIP PRODUCT INDEX]
- .
- LAT...LON 3800 9900 3800 9600 3500 9600 3500 9900
- NNNN

_**Example  of SPENES message with automated  satellite Hydroestimates**_

##  Automated Hydroestimator Graphic posted on Web Page -  EXAMPLE

** **_**Automated Hydroestimator Graphic posted on Web Page**_** -  **_**EXAMPLE**_

## Slide 12

## Hydroestimator Products at NESDIS

- Every 15 Minutes:
- Instantaneous Rate
- 1 hour totals
- 3 hour totals
- 6 hour totals
- Daily (12Z):
- 24 hour totals

## Factors in Derivation of HYDROESTIMATES

- 15 min imagery
- Cloud top temperature
- Original AE...Radar reflectivity for rain/no rain
- Hydro-Estimator (Auto SPE on AWIPS)...no radar
-     - uses satellite-based screening technique
- Moisture correction – (Precipitable Water and RH)
- Orographic correction
- Warm cloud tops/equilibrium level adjustment
- Parallax (satellite viewing angle)

**Notes:**
The Hydroestimator uses a screening technique that separates raining and non-raining pixels according to the difference between the pixel 10.7 micron brightness temperature and the mean value of the surrounding pixels.   This difference is used to adjust the relationship between brightness temperature and rainfall rate in the raining pixels.  This screening technique was not yet developed for use in the original Autoestimator... therefore,  radar was used (in a qualitative sense) to distinguish rain vs. no rain areas. 
  The Hydroestimator uses separate adjustments for PW and RH that improve estimates in arid and very humid environments.  For very humid (high PW) environments,  the rain rate curve is adjusted upward. For arid environments (low RH)..the rain rate is reduced.  This different treatment of PW/RH also may produce better estimates for precipitation with winter storms. 

## Example of AWIPS Hydro-Estimator graphic,

- Called “1 hr Auto Satellite Precip Estimates” (SPE)

- Click on “NCEP/Hydro” on Menu Bar
- To Access the Pull Down Menu

- 1 hr Auto SPE

- Manual SPE

## Hydro-Estimator vs. Manual IFFA

- Manual IFFA (Interactive Flash Flood Analyzer):
- Satellite-derived Precip Estimates determined _by satellite meteorologist_
-   - uses cloud top temp, PWxRH, warm top correction, etc, experience,_ cloud top temp change and growth, cell mergers, and rain burst._
- Computer (McIDAS) stores and totals estimates
- Hydroestimator (New version of Autoestimator) :
- Satellite-derived Precip Estimates determined _by computer (algorithm)_
-   - uses cloud top temp, PW&RH, warm top correction, etc, _**does not use**__ __cloud top temp change and growth, cell mergers, or rain burst._

## Future Hydro-Estimator Improvements:Current or Planned Testing.....

- Rain Burst – increase amounts for 1st hour
- Cloud Top Cooling and Growth
- Single Channel → Multi-channel sensor
-      - (GOES Channels; Microwave; other algorithms)
- Use of GOES Sounder PW, RH, Equil. Level
- Improved Calibration of H-E rain rate curves
- Nowcast Version of H-E (0-3 hr rainfall fcst)
- Validation Efforts: H-E vs Stage III & Gages

## Web Sites for NESDIS Satellite Estimates

**Satellite Services Division (SSD) Home Page**
- 	-  SAB Operational Products
- _[http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN](http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN)_
- -  Satellite Precipitation Estimate Messages (SPENES)
- -  Auto Satellite Precip Estimates  or                                                   Interactive Flash Flood Analyzer (IFFA) graphics
**ORA Flash Flood Home Page**
- 	-  Multi-hour Hydro-Estimator Products
- _[http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/arad/ht/ff/index.html](http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/arad/ht/ff/index.html)_