# Presentation: 695029

## CCFP

**COLLABORATIVE CONVECTIVE FORECAST PRODUCT**

**TRAINING**

**SPRING 2005**

- NWA Edited Version

**Notes:**
Have students open the TSD

## Module Objectives

**Purpose & Overview of CCFP**
**Identify strengths and weaknesses, and what the product can and can not do**
**Identify the upcoming changes for 2005 convective season**

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## Purpose & Overview of CCFP

**PURPOSE **
**Support Air Traffic Management (ATM) Efforts**
**Reduce Traffic Flow Disruptions**
**Purpose Details**
**Attempts to create a common situational awareness to improve coordination & cooperation among participants  **
**Embraced by  FAA & US airline industry as  cornerstone of severe wx planning for US Airspace operations**

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**

Weather related delays are a highly disruptive force within Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems 

Purpose:
The purpose of the CCFP is to support strategic, system-wide planning that is intended to reduce traffic flow disruptions that may be impacted by convective weather during the next 2-6 hours. 

CCFP attempts to reduce weather-related impacts by creating a common situational awareness and improving coordination and cooperation among participants  
CCFP has been embraced by the FAA and US airline industry as the cornerstone of severe weather planning for US Airspace operations

## CCFP: General Overview

**Collaboration**
**CCFP is developed through a collaboration process between meteorologists**
**CCFP Product**
**3 forecast maps w/ lead times of 2, 4 & 6 hours**
**Strategic Planning Tool**
**2 to 6 hour time frame**
**Planning Telcon Tool**
**All stakeholders have agreed that the CCFP is the primary weather forecast product for strategic planning on the Planning TELCON**

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## CCFP: What it is not

**CCFP does not fcst *****all***** convective activity**
**CCFP areas are **_***not***_** ‘no-fly zones’**
**CCFP  **_***not***_**  tactical (0-2 hrs) decision-aids**
**There are other c****onvective products that can be used for tactical decision making**
**National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF)**
**Corridor Integrated Weather System (****CIWS)**
**Thunderstorm TP Messages**
**Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS)**
**Single Site & Mosaic Wx radar Images**
**Severe Weather Warnings**
**(Details on this issue in Disp. March class****)**

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**
Bullet 1: CCFP forecasts a minimum level of convective activity (25% coverage or more with tops above 25,000 feet).  If the forecasted region does not have the area coverage of 25%, or tops above 25,000 ft., the forecast will not show that area of convective activity as a CCFP polygon.  However, this area may impact the airspace – something to stay aware of.

Bullet 2: In the past, a low confidence coverage polygon would be interpreted by TMCs as an area that would be “closed-off” for traffic flow and would need re-routes around the entire forecasted area.  Last year we started using triggers a lot more to decide when re-routes needed to go into affect.  

This planning process is more suited to the product, being a strategic forecast tool, versus a see and avoid type of tactical planning.

## CCFP: 2005 Overview

_***No Change From 2004***_
**Same Daily Production**
** ****Updated every 2 hrs, except Midnite Central Time**
**Same Variables**
**Coverage, Confidence, Tops, Growth & Movement**
**Same Geographical Coverage**
**Cover the lower 48 states (March through October)**
**Southern Ontario & Quebec (April through Sept.)**
_***Main Change for 2005***_
**Look of the Graphics**

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## Canadian CCFP

-  **March & Oct 2005 - No Canada**
** ****April – Sept. 2005 - Yes Canada**

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## OLD (Pre 2005) CCFP FORMAT

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## New CCFP - Nat’l Wx Srvc AWC site

- March & Oct 2005 - No Canada

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## New CCFP - Nat’l Wx Srvc AWC site

**April – Sept. 2005 - Yes Canada**

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## New 2005 TSD CCFP Graphic

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**
The new look of the 2005 CCFP graphic.  Notice the colors have changed, and forecaster confidence levels are now represented by the colors within the polygons that represent a more intuitive convective forecast product.  We will discuss these changes in further detail as we continue through the presentation.  The biggest question we’ve been asked, is why are we changing something we’re getting comfortable with?

## Why Change the Graphic?

**Address Perception**
**To mitigate previous perception of “no-fly zones”**
**Increase Quick Glance Value**
**A ****more intuitive display of info**
**Traffic manager decipher the fcst w/ more ease**
**How Was New Graphic Developed?**
**Human Factors Experts  were consulted **
**Using fill to indicate coverage density of fcst convection &**
**New color changes for forecaster confidence**** of occurrence **

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## The Change Brings Benefit

**Less restrictions through areas of low confidence and low coverage**
**less fill should yield more capacity**
**A “quick glance value” of the forecast**
**User can immediately interpret fcster’s high confidence of occurrence represented by color **
**TMC decision making process quicker & easier **
**by focusing on the *****traffic management decision***** and not deciphering the forecast**
**Polygon color change **
**mitigate confusion on TSD between other similar products used by FAA traffic managers **** **

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## New 2005 CCFP on AWC site Review Image Detail

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## Forecaster Confidence of Occurrence

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**
The 1st major change for the 2005 CCFP graphic is the forecaster confidence of occurrence.  

Notice there are two areas of confidence now used to depict the forecaster confidence of occurrence for future thunderstorm events after considering all information.  To further explain, it’s the forecasters’ level of confidence that the polygon will reach the minimum criteria threshold.  For example, if you see the color blue, it represents a higher confidence level in reaching the minimum threshold criteria.  

Comparing blue to gray doesn’t mean that the color blue represents more intense convection, but a higher chance the convection within that polygon will reach the minimum threshold.

## CCFP Coverage Criteria

**Coverage (CVRG): Identify by degree of fill in one of 3 categories for areas:**
**Low 25-49% (Sparse Fill)**
**Med 50-74% (Medium Fill)**
**High 75-100% (Solid Fill)**
**Solid line of convection (****Purple****)**

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**
The 2nd major change for 2005 is the representation of convective coverage.

Notice there are three areas of fill now used to depict the coverage area for future thunderstorm events.  This is a major change in the interpretation of the product by using fill to depict coverage rather than color.

This aspect of CCFP has been the most prominent piece of information used by the Collaborative Decision Making process and also the most MISUSED piece of information, which is one of the main reasons for the change.

A low coverage, represented by sparse fill means that 25-49% of the polygon is forecasted to contain convection
A Med coverage, represented by medium fill means that 50-74% of the polygon is forecasted to contain convection
A High coverage, represented by solid fill means that 75-100% of the polygon is forecasted to contain convection

## CCFP Coverage Area Criteria, cont.

**Sparse Fill**
**Mostly SCT TSTMS predicted to cover 25-49% of the area. Possible line(s) of TSTMS. (old low) **
**Medium Fill**
**Forecast to be 50-74% of the area & may include short lines or clusters.  Often associated with weather fronts or tropical systems. (old medium)**
**Solid Fill**
**Coverage is dense, 75% or > and  usually includes lines and clusters. (old high)**
**Lines**
**Nearly solid lines of convective activity. (no change) **

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**
Differences in traffic volume, location and time of day affect planning decisions
Low coverage in a high traffic density area could have high impact
High coverage in a low traffic density area could have low impact.

## Coverage Criteria Points to Remember

**An area of convection w/ coverage less  than 25%, or a single cell, will not be fcst on CCFP**
**but may still impact the airspace, **
**but is normally handled as a tactical issue**
**Criteria for an area of convection on the CCFP**
**at least 3,000 sq. mi area with **
**coverage greater than 25%, of **
**echo tops greater than 25,000 ft.**
**Coverage is NOT chance of tstrm dvlpment,**
**but percent of area covered by convective activity**

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## CCFP Interpretation - 1

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## CCFP Interpretation - 2

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## CCFP Interpretation - 3

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## CCFP Data Block

**DATA BLOCK**

| TOPS = | Height of Max Echo Tops expressed in feet MSL |
| --- | --- |
| GWTH = | Growth rate of area or line |
| CONF = | Forecaster confidence of Minimum Criteria |
| CVRG = | Area coverage |

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## CCFP Movement

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

## CCFP Tops Criteria:

_**TOPS **_**:**
**3 Options:                           Echo tops within the forecast area are reported in the following three categories:**
**25,000-31,000 feet MSL**
**31,000-37,000 feet MSL**
**Above 37,000**
**This Exampe                      Echo top of  Above 37,000 feet Mean Sea Level (MSL), are expected to cover at least 25% of the forecast area**** **

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**
A slight change from last year where the data block listed tops as HGHT, which now is listed as TOPS.

Visualize the 3 representations of tops across the X-axis to explain each tops area.

Note: Within each area of convection, height of maximum Echo tops (the height of   18.5 dbZ reflectivity (VIP Level 1)) encompassing coverage greater than 25% will be identified in one of three ranges:
       25000-31000 feet MSL
       31000-37000 feet MSL
       above 37000 feet MSL

## CCFP Growth

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**
Applies to both the lateral and vertical extent of the evolution of the convection in a given area.

## 2005 CCFP Schedule

| Collaboration Session Open (Central Time) | CCFP Issue
(Central Time) | Supported Telcon
(Central Time) | Valid Times
(Central Time) | Comments |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 0115 - 0145 | 0200 | ------ | 04 - 06 - 08 | 2, 4, 6 hour forecasts |
| 0315 - 0345 | 0400 | 0615 | 06 - 08 - 10 | 2, 4, 6 hour forecasts |
| 0515 - 0545 | 0600 | 0615 | 08 - 10 - 12 | 2, 4, 6 hour forecasts |
| 0715 - 0745 | 0800 | 0815 | 10 - 12 - 14 | 2, 4, 6 hour forecasts |
| 0915 - 0945 | 1000 | 1015 | 12 - 14 - 16 | 2, 4, 6 hour forecasts |
| 1115 - 1145 | 1200 | 1215 | 14 - 16 - 18 | 2, 4, 6 hour forecasts |
| 1315 - 1345 | 1400 | 1415 | 16 - 18 - 20 | 2, 4, 6 hour forecasts |
| 1515 - 1545 | 1600 | 1615 | 18 - 20 - 22 | 2, 4, 6 hour forecasts |
| 1715 - 1745 | 1800 | 1815 | 20 - 22 - 00 | 2, 4, 6 hour forecasts |
| 1915 - 1945 | 2000 | 2015 | 22 - 00 - 02 | 2, 4, 6 hour forecasts |
| 2115 - 2145 | 2200 | ------- | 00 - 02 - 04 | 2, 4, 6 hour forecasts |

**Note: UTC is +6 hours ahead of Central time before Daylight Savings (April 3, 2005), and  +5 hours ahead of Central time during Daylight Savings**** **

- Issued 11 Times per day = Every 2 hrs except Midnite Central Time

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**
The  CCFP schedule is determined by the needs of the users at the FAA and airlines.

The CCFP package is issued 11 times per day to correspond with the planning telcons held daily.

## CCFP DATA VERIFICATION

**CCFP metrics and their explanation can be found on the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) website that include:**
**Forecasts compared to actual weather**
**Daily statistical results**
**Overall accuracy**
_**[http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/conv/archive_ccfp/index.html](http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/conv/archive_ccfp/index.html)**_

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**
Click the website and walk through the verification page

## CONCLUSIONS

**CCFP intended as a long range (2-6 hour) strategic forecast not as a tactical tool**
**The graphic was changed give Industry & FAA Traffic managers a quick glance overview of the weather forecast**
**Confidence is Color**
**Low                 25-49%**
**High                 50-100%**

**(GRAY)**

**(BLUE)**

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**
 less fill means more aircraft will be able to go through the forecasted weather

## CONCLUSIONS

**Coverage is Fill**
**Low 25-49% (Sparse Fill)**
**Med 50-74% (Medium Fill)**
**High 75-100% (Solid Fill) **
**CVRG is the percentage of area coverage NOT the chance of thunderstorm (TSTM) development**

- ATT-240, National Traffic Management Training Branch

**Notes:**
 less fill means more aircraft will be able to go through the forecasted weather