# Presentation: 189615

## -  OFCM Special Session  -Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling Support for Homeland Security

**Panel 2:  ATD Research Needs **
**and Priorities**
- Thursday, 20 June 2003
- George Mason University
- Panelist:  Mr. Walt Schalk
- NOAA/ARL/SORD

**September 11, 2001 and increased worldwide terrorism vigilance has thrust ATD into:**
- 	**- public awareness**
**	****- political spotlight**
**It is incumbent upon our scientific community and the Department of Homeland Security to** **conduct responsible ATD research to ensure efforts to safeguard our people, property, and infrastructure are effective**

## Conveyance of Threat

**How do we define the “threat” from an ATD/ meteorological perspective?**
**	****-  many variables and parameters determine the assessment (many degrees of freedom)**
**	****-  public impact (morbidity vs. mortality)**

## Presentation of information must be:
	-  Credible and Accurate
	-  Useable and Understandable

- 	**-  Credible and Accurate**
**	****-  Useable and Understandable**

- _Conveyance of Threat__ __(cont.)_

_**Graphics**_**	****	****vs.****	****	**_**Text**_
- flashy					lackluster
- colorful				jargon
- Memorable
- “good/bad” line

** ****Realistic Portrayal of Uncertainties is Crucial**

## Continue local and regional studies

**The study of smaller flow regimes (ie. urban street canyons, building interior HVAC transport) is important to extend our ATD assessment tools**
**It is also important to increase our understanding of the regional scale flow phenomenon , which also affects ATD model outcomes**
**Need better understanding of **_**all**_** ATD scales to sharpen our models that provide key protective action information after any event that disperses radiological, chemical, or biological agents**

## Local and Regional Studies (cont.)

**OKC Study**
- 	**-  great example of important research**
**	****-  continued examination of the urban scale**
**Prairie Grass II**
**	****-  need to continue to pursue this**
**	****-  evaluate and sharpen understanding of older theories**
**	****-  development of new hypotheses to improve codes**

## Meso-scale/ATD model coupling

**As computers continue to increase in execution speed and storage capacity; mesoscale models will**
**-  further increase resolution, and**
**-  better drive ATD models**
**Continued work needs to be preformed to:**
**-  support,**
**-  benchmark**
**-  verify and validate**
**the increased detail of the data generated.**

## Meso-scale/ATD model coupling (cont.)

**Extended capability results in the need to ****monitor and acquire**** more detailed ****higher**** ****resolution data**** to satisfy model input requirements**
**Observations vs. Model generated data**
**appears to be a shift:   **
**	****	****	****Observations  =>  models**
**Observations are occurring; not predicted to occur**
- -**  Special operations and testing still use on-scene observations to support activities.**

## As computers continually become more powerful and compact; 

Field personnel armed with  laptop, cell phone, on-scene weather observations, and ATD models become a Consequence Assessment “Army of One”

  -  Interact directly with Response Commanders and other response personnel
  -  Provide timely and accurate protective action recommendations

**Field personnel armed with  ****laptop, cell phone, on-scene weather observations, and ATD models**** ****become a Consequence Assessment ****“Army of One”**
** **** **
**  ****-  Interact directly with Response Commanders and other response personnel**
**  ****-  Provide timely and accurate protective action recommendations**

- _Meso-scale/ATD model coupling __(cont.)_

## Wrap - up

**“****Pressing Needs” is a by-product of **
**	****-  current politics, **
**	****-  perceived pertinent issues**
**	****-  state of the 21****st**** Century world.**
**Pursue Threat Conveyance **
**	****-  ****sooner rather than later**
**	****-  education of public and user groups**** **

## Wrap – up (cont.)

**Collaboration and coordination**
**	****-  focus on the advancement of the science**
**	****-  “it’s all about the science”**