# Presentation: 394469

## NOAA’s Advanced Hydrologic 

-  ***Meeting America’s Water Forecast and ***
***Warning Information Needs***

***NOAA’s Advanced Hydrologic ***
***Prediction Service (AHPS):***
***Program Overview and Update***

**Tom Graziano**
- Chief, Hydrologic Services Branch
- Office of Climate, Water and Weather
- National Weather Service
- December 7, 2004

**Notes:**
Objective:  Provide overview of the FCCSET categories for which the NWS provided  data in and why. 
Answers to applicable General Questions:
We reported on three FCCSET categories:  Water Cycle; Resources Data; and Manpower, Grants and Facilities.  
 The NWS survey response provides a subdivision these categories for its applicable FY 1999 – FY 2001 budgets.  The reported dollars are NWS resources only.  They do not include 3rd party funding.
 The Director, NWS Office of Hydrologic Development, approved the survey response.

Water Cycle 
Develop and infuse proven scientific methods to advance National Weather Service (NWS) river, flood and drought forecasting capabilities
Implement and evaluate tools to improve NWS River Forecast Center and NWS Weather Forecast Office forecasting procedures

Resources Data:  
Perform data analysis and data management in support of operational forecasting services

IX. Manpower, Grants and Facilities: 
Provide extramural and inhouse education on these activities:
Grants build partnerships to deliver new operational science procedures
Inhouse education assists with transition to apply new science

## Program Overview

** ****Provide enhanced water availability and flood warning information by leveraging NOAA’s infrastructure and expertise**
** ****Modernize services through infusion of new **
**science and technology **
- 	***- ******Flash-flood to seasonal freshwater forecasts ***
***	******- Quantification of forecast certainty***
***	******- More accurate and timely forecasts and warnings***
***	******- Flood-forecast area mapping***
***	******- Visually-oriented products***
** ****Provide consistent access to standardized**
**graphics via web interface**

**Notes:**
AHPS leverages NWS modernization and NOAA infrastructure to modernize hydrologic services

Phase 1 of Web page standardization scheduled to be completed by Oct 31, 2003

$766 million estimated annual recurring benefit from 2002 National Hydrologic Warning Council Report

## Program Overview

** ****$60 million/10 year program**
** ****$766 million estimated annual recurring benefit (NHWC study)**
** ****Operations Concept ****(http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/Ahps-back.shtml)**

**Notes:**
AHPS leverages NWS modernization and NOAA infrastructure to modernize hydrologic services

Phase 1 of Web page standardization scheduled to be completed by Oct 31, 2003

$766 million estimated annual recurring benefit from 2002 National Hydrologic Warning Council Report

## Leveraging GovernmentInfrastructure and Expertise

**Valuable Information to Satisfy Diverse Partner and Customer Needs**

**Radar Data**

**River Gauge Data**

**    ****Weather **
**Observations**

**Snow Cover/**
**Melt Data**

**Precipitation**
**Forecasts**

**Climate Predictions**

**Reservoir**
**Releases**

**Precipitation**
**Estimates**

**Satellite Data**

***Leveraging Government******Infrastructure and Expertise***

## Projected Service Benefits

**Annual Benefits in Millions of Dollars**

**National Hydrologic Warning Council 2002 Report: *****"Use and Benefits of the NWS River and Flood Forecasts“***
**http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/ahps/AHPS%20Benefits.pdf**

***Projected Service Benefits***

## Program Accomplishments

** *****Science and Technology Infusion***
**Implemented API-based Site-Specific model in 02**
**Currently implementing Sacramento-based Site-Specific model **
**Deployed FFMP in 02 with several subsequent enhancements**
**Created, provided, and updated FFMP small basin data sets and established National Basin Repository on NOAA1 Server**

## Program Accomplishments

**Areas Completed Through FY04 (1,143 Forecast Points)**

**Areas Covered by FY05 AHPS (346 New Forecast Points)**

***Program Accomplishments***

** *****Science and Technology Infusion***
**Implemented longer-range ESP capability at 1,143 river forecast locations**
**Plan to implement longer-range ESP capability at 233 additional locations in FY05**

**AHPS Implementation Status**

**Notes:**
Implementation of AHPS at 386 forecast locations in FY05 in contingent upon receiving full $6.1 M dollars in the President’s Budget

## Program Accomplishments

** *****Science and Technology Infusion***
**Implemented NOHRSC operational SWE flight lines in Alaska**
**Implementing enhanced DAMCREST application integrating Simplified Dambreak Model with the dam break scenario catalogue database**
**Demonstrating Distributed Hydrologic (DHM) Modeling capability**
**Developing the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)**
**Developing short-range ESP forecasting capability**
**Developing Variational Data Assimilation capability**

## Program Accomplishments

***Short-Range ESP***

***Distributed Hydrologic Modeling (DHM)***

***Program Accomplishments***

***Variational Data Assimilation (VAR)***

***Science and Technology Infusion***

## Hurricane FloydSeptember 1999

***Program Accomplishments***

** *****Science and Technology Infusion***
**Demonstrating flood forecast modeling capability for Tar River in NC and Juniata River in PA**

**Notes:**
This image animates when slide show is viewed (under slide show option click “view show”)

This graphic is format in which forecast flood inundation maps will be provided to users in Tar Basin, NC (based upon user forums)

Flood forecast inundation graphics will be provided for the cities of Rocky Mount, Tarboro, and Greenville beginning Oct 1

## Program Accomplishments

** *****Science and Technology Infusion***
**Implemented an enhanced version of MPE at WFOs in 02**
**Incorporating Mountain Mapper, P3, and MPE capabilities within a unified precipitation analysis application**
**Deploying software on RFC archive database machine enabling verification at more daily forecast points**
**Will implement enhanced verification software in 05 which includes metrics on persistence forecasts **
**Developing verification software enhancements which will quantitatively determine relative contribution of inputs to total forecast error**
**Will implement WFO Flood Warning Verification System in 06 **

**Notes:**
This image animates when slide show is viewed (under slide show option click “view show”)

This graphic is format in which forecast flood inundation maps will be provided to users in Tar Basin, NC (based upon user forums)

Flood forecast inundation graphics will be provided for the cities of Rocky Mount, Tarboro, and Greenville beginning Oct 1

## Program Accomplishments

** *****Service/Process Enhancements***
**Implemented nationally consistent web interface for AHPS products and information**
**Implemented new AHPS web requirements process to facilitate implementation of user requested enhancements **

## Program Accomplishments

** *****Service/Process Enhancements***
**Improved theme-based project prioritization and budgeting process utilizing field input**
**Implementing VTEC and modernized product policy enhancements (NWSI 10-922) into RiverPro and other NWS product formatters **
**Partnering with NOS CSC and FEMA to develop prototype user-requested graphical E-19s to better convey flood threat **
**Through CFI Group, conducted national web-based CSI survey of hydrologic services**
**Contracted with a social scientist to evaluate the effectiveness of NWS flood severity categories (minor, moderate, major)**

## Program Accomplishments

***Program Accomplishments***
***Partnerships Promoting Public Safety***

** ****Developed *****AHPS brochure***** in coordination with National Safety Council (NSC) which they have distributed to their member organizations**
** ****Developing a *****Turn Around Don’t Drown***** safety guide in coordination with the NSC, the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA), the Department of Transportation (DOT), and the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH)**
** ****Updating *****Floods the Awesome Power***** safety brochure with the NSC, the American Red Cross, and FEMA.**
** ****Developed half hour NWS Hydrologic Services documentary entitled *****Water’s Fury***** with the Weather Channel which first aired in April 2004.**

##  Partnerships Promoting Public Safety 

** ****FEMA providing AHPS forecasts and flood severity information to Emergency Managers (EMs) via HURREVAC decision assistance tool**
** ****Currently available to EMs in Southeast U.S. and FEMA plans to include all Gulf and Atlantic Coastal States in 2005**

***Program Accomplishments***

## Program Accomplishments

** *****Training***
**Formed a new hydrology training development team at COMET to support implementation of enhanced services**
**New Flash Flood Hydrology and QPE Course**
**Developing new hydrologic science resident and distance learning course**

## Summary

** ****We have made significant steps forward**
** ****Much still to be accomplished**
** ****We must continue to listen to and work closely with our partners and customers**
** ****Together we can successfully accomplish our goals**

**Notes:**
AHPS leverages NWS modernization and NOAA infrastructure to modernize hydrologic services

Phase 1 of Web page standardization scheduled to be completed by Oct 31, 2003

$766 million estimated annual recurring benefit from 2002 National Hydrologic Warning Council Report