# Presentation: 371579

## Objective and Automated Assessment of Operational Global Forecast Model Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Formation

- Patrick A. Harr
- Naval Postgraduate School
- Monterey, CA

**Acknowledgment: NOAA, Joint Hurricane Testbed Project**

## OBJECTIVES

**Data are gathered on all tropical vortices**** **
**Before formation of tropical cyclone**
**Target circulations may be waves**
**Not intended to replace operational trackers **
**associated  with existing tropical cyclones**
**Not applicable to regional models that are only run ****	****when a tropical cyclone exists**
**	****	**
**	**
**	**

**OBJECTIVES**

## OBJECTIVES (continued)

**Two levels of interface**
**(1)**** ****Interface during operations to examine current vortices**
**via NMAP2**
**allow hurricane specialists to monitor:**** **
**	****-****vortices in the current analysis and their forecasts****	**
**	****-vortices forecast to form in the current model****	****run**
**(2)**** ****Interface to examine general summaries of forecast ****	****performance with respect to tropical vortices that may ****	****become a tropical cyclone**
**conditioned on season, location, intensity, etc.**
**via web-interface with the database (MySQL/PHP)**
**Identification of ****false alarms**
**	****-****forecast to become a tropical cyclone but does ****	****	****	****not verify**
**	****-declaration of a model tropical cyclone based on ****	****	**** ****	****several criteria (warm core, etc.)**** **

**OBJECTIVES ****(continued)**

## Catalog in a dynamic database
Database designed to answer user-generated queries for statistical summaries associated with model performance based on
Time period
area
Forecast parameter (850 hPa vorticity, SLP, rainfall, warm core, etc).
Parameter thresholds (e.g., vorticity above/below a specified value)
Model

**Database designed to answer user-generated queries for statistical summaries associated with model performance based on**
**Time period**
**area**
**Forecast parameter (850 hPa vorticity, SLP, rainfall, warm core, etc).**
**Parameter thresholds (e.g., vorticity above/below a specified value)**
**Model**

**OBJECTIVES ****(continued)**

**Identify factors that discriminate between likely model traits with respect to tropical cyclone formation. **
**[ Objective, feature based, dynamic]**** **

## GFSNOGAPSUKMET

**Tropical Cyclone**
**Vortex Tracking**
**Program(TCVTP)**

_**Forecast Data Base**_
**Circulations**
**  ****forecast to **
** ****occur**

_**Analyzed Data Base**_
**Current tropical**
**circulations**

**Current circulation summaries/ verifications**

**Final Circulation Catalog**
**summaries/verifications conditioned on **
**Season, location, intensity,etc.**** **

**Catalog of **
**False Alarms**

- Overall System Design

**GFS****NOGAPS****UKMET**

**Interface during **
**Operations via NMAP2**

**Database Interface**

**Notes:**
Structure of the system.  The box surrounding the database components indicates the portion with which a user will interface.  The interface is labeled VORTRACK and is web-based interaction with a MySQL data base.

## With respect to the each tracked vortex, 

- the following parameters are cataloged:
**850 ********maximum value**
**SLP average, minimum value**
**500-850 hPa wind shear**
**200-850 hPa wind shear**
**1000-200 height thickness**
**500 hPa vertical motion**
**700-500 hPa moisture**
**model-derived accumulated precipitation**
**temperature difference between area inside**
**	****ellipse and outside ellipse at 500 hPa**

## Interface to monitor forecasts of current vortices and vortices 

**forecast to form**

**Interface is provided via NMAP2**

- Choose Data Source (model)

- Choose Data Window (time)

## Choose from track list that identifies vortices in  the current analysis

- Display 850 hPa vorticity and track  for vortex of interest

## Choose from track list that identifies vortices forecast to form in the current model run

- Vortices in the current analysis and their forecasts (red)
- Vortices forecast to form and their forecast tracks labeled by the time at which  they appear in the forecast sequence (green)

## Interface 2

- Summaries of overall model traits with respect to tropical vortices

- Use of database design to allow user-defined queries for the catalog of analyzed and forecast parameters with respect to tropical vortices.

**Examine vortices within specific model runs**
- Examine general summaries of model
- performance

## Choose from a list of previous model runs

- Choose to display parameters for a vortex defined in a list of current vortices

- Choose from a list of previous vortices

**Notes:**
Example pages of daily forecast monitoring.  Values are chosen through drop-down menus.  These define the queries to the data base, which result in graphical outputs.  Outputs may contain analyzed and forecast values with respect to one model, or with respect to multiple models.  Various parameters, listed in the drop-down menu may be plotted.

## Choose the parameter to summarize

- Overall model performance:  Can be defined via user specification of important operational factors (i.e., location, intensity, time, parameter)

**Define conditions on which to base statistical analysis of model traits**

- Choose summary format:
- Table,
- Plot of absolute error and bias error,
- Box and whisker plot

**Notes:**
An example page of the longer-term summary of model performances. Via menus, the user defines a query based on location, time, intensity, and parameter to be summarized.

## Output available in tabular and graphical formats.

- Output available in various statistical representations to identify likely sources of forecast errors.

**Notes:**
Example outputs in tabular or graphical form.

## Objectively identify and track analyzed and 

**forecast vorticity centers in operational global **
**forecast models**
**Summarize**** a comprehensive set of physical **
**parameters associated with analyzed and **
**forecast vortices.**
**Catalog**** parameters in a dynamic data base**
**Provide daily and other ****summaries**** of model **
**forecast performance associated with developing**
**and non-developing tropical vortices.**
**Use summaries to ****discriminate**** between potentially**
**accurate/inaccurate forecasts of TC formation.**

**Summary**