# Presentation: 675221

## Parker-Davis Project

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***Parker-Davis Project***

- Preliminary FY 2005
- Annual Operating Plan
- May 4, 2004

## Agenda

- Introduction/Purpose
- Hydrology Update
- Status of FY 2004 Operating Plan
- U.S.B.R. Projections for PD-P Generation
- Preliminary FY 2005 Operating Plan
- FY 2005 Surplus/Deficit
- FY 2005 Recommended Operating Strategies
- Discussion
- Next Steps

## Purpose

- To review FY 2004 current operating plan status
- To present FY 2005 Preliminary Annual Operating Plan
- To discuss FY 2005 operating strategies
- To answer questions and facilitate discussion
- To discuss current / emerging topics

## Hydrology Update

- 2004 Upper Basin Inflow Projected About 55% of Average
- 5th Straight Year Below Normal Inflow
- Lakes Mead & Powell Storage Down About 20 MAF Last 5 Years

##                 FY2005 Water Releases

- 2005 Partial Domestic Surplus Expected (Lake Mead above 1125 ft.)
- If MWD Does Not Take Surplus Deliveries: FY05 Lake Mead Releases About 1% Below   FY04
- If MWD Takes Surplus Deliveries:        FY05 Lake Mead Releases Approx.    Same as FY04

##             Near Term Future Generation

- Water Releases/Generation at Davis & Parker Little Changed From FY04
- Generation Near Contract Values
- Increased Generation Only After Significant Refill at Lakes Powell and Mead
- Decreased Generation Only if Water Shortage Criteria to Lower Basin States Implemented

## Current Status FY2004 AOP

**Total Gen 1594.9 GWh**

## FY2004 AOP Distributed 06/10/03

**Total Gen 1555.9 GWh**

## FY 2004 Excess Energy (GWh)

## FY 2004 AOP Status

- Excess energy offered on a contingent basis
- 9.5 GWh Excess Energy issued for FY 2004

##                       Current Status FY2004 AOP

**Parker Davis Project**

|   | CumBal  | OCT | NOV | DEC | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | TOTAL |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PDP Resources |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   PDP Generation |   | 119.3 | 90.8 | 88.4 | 93.8 | 114.8 | 170.3 | 175.1 | 175.4 | 157.9 | 156.5 | 137.8 | 114.8 | 1594.9 |
|   Net Int/Dev Recov |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Energy Bank Purchases |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Purchases |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|      Total PDP Resources: |   | 119.3 | 90.8 | 88.4 | 93.8 | 114.8 | 170.3 | 175.1 | 175.4 | 157.9 | 156.5 | 137.8 | 114.8 | 1594.9 |
| PDP Loads |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   Total PDP Firm Load |   | 94.8 | 87.2 | 85.7 | 85.7 | 82.2 | 158.8 | 161.1 | 165.4 | 162.6 | 168.5 | 163.3 | 154.3 | 1569.7 |
|   Total Surplus Sales |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Excess Energy |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.5 |
| Reliability Energy Deviation  | -2.8 | 28.9 | -4.2 | -13.7 | 3.4 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 10.5 | 4.0 | -4.7 | -4.5 | -6.2 | -9.1 | 14.4 |
|   Hoover Bank | 1.4 | -4.4 | 7.8 | 16.4 | 4.7 | 23.8 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7.5 | -19.3 | -30.4 | 0.0 |
|   Inadvertent Exchange |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Energy Bank Sales |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|      Total PDP Loads: |   | 119.3 | 90.8 | 88.4 | 93.8 | 114.8 | 170.3 | 175.1 | 175.4 | 157.9 | 156.5 | 137.8 | 114.8 | 1594.9 |

-     Estimates GWh

-      Actuals GWh

##      FY2004 AOP Distributed 06/10/03

|   | OCT | NOV | DEC | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | TOTAL |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PDP Resources |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   PDP Generation | 92.4 | 81.6 | 78.5 | 99.3 | 92.7 | 171.5 | 188.2 | 167.2 | 170.1 | 166.2 | 132.1 | 116.1 | 1555.9 |
|   Net Int/Dev Recov | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 12.3 |
|   Energy Bank Purchases | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38.0 |
|   Purchases | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
|      Total PDP Resources: | 92.4 | 82.6 | 82.5 | 99.3 | 100.3 | 179.1 | 195.8 | 174.8 | 177.7 | 166.2 | 135.3 | 124.2 | 1610.2 |
| PDP Loads |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   Total PDP Firm Load | 92.5 | 85.2 | 85.8 | 87.0 | 81.2 | 161.8 | 163.7 | 165.4 | 163.6 | 169.2 | 162.3 | 154.2 | 1571.9 |
|   Total Surplus Sales | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Excess Energy | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Reliability Energy Deviation  | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Hoover Bank | -0.1 | -2.6 | -3.3 | 12.3 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 24.5 | 1.8 | 6.5 | -3.0 | -27.0 | -30.0 | 0.3 |
|   Inadvertent Exchange | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Energy Bank Sales | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38.0 |
|      Total PDP Loads: | 92.4 | 82.6 | 82.5 | 99.3 | 100.3 | 179.1 | 195.8 | 174.8 | 177.7 | 166.2 | 135.3 | 124.2 | 1610.2 |

**Parker Davis Project**

- Estimates GWh

##               FY2004 AOP Comparison

**Parker Davis Project**

- Differences equal Current Actuals and Estimates less Original Estimates GWh

|   | OCT | NOV | DEC | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | TOTAL |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PDP Resources |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   PDP Generation | 26.9 | 9.2 | 9.9 | -5.5 | 22.1 | -1.2 | -13.1 | 8.2 | -12.2 | -9.7 | 5.7 | -1.3 | 39.0 |
|   Net Int/Dev Recov | 0.0 | -1.0 | -4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -3.2 | -4.1 | -12.3 |
|   Energy Bank Purchases | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7.6 | -7.6 | -7.6 | -7.6 | -7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -38.0 |
|   Purchases | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 | -4.0 |
|      Total PDP Resources: | 26.9 | 8.2 | 5.9 | -5.5 | 14.5 | -8.8 | -20.7 | 0.6 | -19.8 | -9.7 | 2.5 | -9.4 | -15.3 |
| PDP Loads |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   Total PDP Firm Load | 2.3 | 2.0 | -0.1 | -1.3 | 1.0 | -3.0 | -2.6 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 | -2.2 |
|   Total Surplus Sales | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Excess Energy | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.5 |
| Reliability Energy Deviation  | 28.9 | -4.2 | -13.7 | 3.4 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 10.5 | 4.0 | -4.7 | -4.5 | -6.2 | -9.1 | 17.1 |
|   Hoover Bank | -4.3 | 10.4 | 19.7 | -7.6 | 12.3 | -2.2 | -24.5 | -1.8 | -6.5 | -4.5 | 7.7 | -0.4 | -1.7 |
|   Inadvertent Exchange | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Energy Bank Sales | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -7.6 | -7.6 | -7.6 | -7.6 | -7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -38.0 |
|      Total PDP Loads: | 26.9 | 8.2 | 5.9 | -5.5 | 14.5 | -8.8 | -20.7 | 0.6 | -19.8 | -9.7 | 2.5 | -9.4 | -15.3 |

##                    Notes On Comparison

- Energy bank withdrawals scheduled for FY 2004 were completed in FY 2003
- $2.6 mil energy bank withdrawal in FY 2003
- REA Deviation is new addition
- Minimize Hoover Banking while utilizing REA Deviation

## USBR Generation Projections

## USBR Generation Projections

## Preliminary FY 2005 AOP

- Estimates GWh

**Parker Davis Project**

|   | Cum Bal  | OCT | NOV | DEC | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | TOTAL |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PDP Resources |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
|   PDP Generation |   | 89.8 | 88.0 | 80.5 | 98.5 | 113.2 | 159.6 | 186.2 | 174.6 | 160.0 | 157.5 | 139.3 | 117.1 | 1564.3 |
|   Net Int/Dev Recov |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Energy Bank Purchases |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 |
|   Purchases |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|      Total PDP Resources: |   | 89.8 | 88.0 | 80.5 | 98.5 | 113.2 | 159.6 | 186.2 | 189.6 | 185.0 | 157.5 | 139.3 | 117.1 | 1604.3 |
| PDP Loads |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 0.0 |
|   Total PDP Firm Load |   | 93.5 | 86.2 | 85.6 | 86.2 | 84.7 | 160.4 | 163.2 | 165.5 | 162.7 | 168.4 | 163.4 | 154.0 | 1573.8 |
|   Total Surplus Sales |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Excess Energy |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Reliability Energy Deviation  | 14.4 | -3.7 | 1.8 | -5.1 | 4.1 | 0.5 | -0.8 | 5.0 | -2.9 | 7.3 | -7.7 | -5.1 | -2.9 | 4.9 |
|   Hoover Bank | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 12.0 | -10.0 | -3.2 | -19.0 | -34.0 | 0.0 |
|   Inadvertent Exchange |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|   Energy Bank Sales |   | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 |
|      Total PDP Loads: |   | 89.8 | 88.0 | 80.5 | 98.5 | 113.2 | 159.6 | 186.2 | 189.6 | 185.0 | 157.5 | 139.3 | 117.1 | 1604.3 |

## FY 2005 Surpluses & Deficits (GWh)

##               Preliminary FY 2005 AOP

- Surpluses expected Nov, Jan, Feb, Apr, & May
- No P-DP Excess Energy expected (assuming MWD does not take surplus water)
- Minimal Surplus Sales or Purchases as Needed

## Preliminary FY 2005 AOP

- 5,008 MWh total FES exchange requests can be accommodated through the Resource Integration Exchange Program
- 110 MWh total Stage 2 exchange with BCP contractor

## Recommended FY 2005 Operating Strategies

- Achieve revenue goals in P-DP Power Repayment Study
- Maximize Excess Energy to customers, if available
- Utilize surplus sales resulting from energy bank withdraws to maintain current rate
- Minimize purchases
- Resource Integration Exchange Program has a net zero impact on energy obligation for    P-DP

## Recommended FY 2005 Strategies Continued

- Minimize Hoover Banking through utilization of REA Deviation
- Continue providing additional revenue to PDP for the use of the unused merchant transmission used to support sales associated with IPP regulation

## Revenue Transfer to BCP

- $2.6M Revenue – IPP Regulation Energy April 01 – Feb 04
- $2.4M Total Revenue to BCP
- 		 $0.6M PDP Gen (Apr 01 – Jun 02)
- 		-$0.2M Revenue to PDP for use of  		  Merchant Transmission
- 		 $2.0M REA (Jul 02 – Feb 04)

## FY 2005 AOP – Next Steps

- Open discussion
- Next steps
- Early June 2004: P-DP Rates Meeting
- July 15, 2004: P-DP Funding Board Meeting
- October 1, 2004:  FY 2005 begins