# Presentation: 761763

## Orientation

- Storm-Based Warnings
- A Presentation for NOAA’s NWS Managers
- by
- Warning Decision Training Branch

**Notes:**
Hello, my name is Brad Grant of the WDTB. I am Training Project lead for the Storm-Based Warnings (SBW) Service Change. This briefing is designed to introduce managers to Storm-Based Warnings. It is produced by the NWS Training Division. We have guest panelists to help with the briefing including John Ferree (Severe Storms Program Leader at OCWWS), Shannon White (AWIPS and WarnGen met instructor with the FDTB of OCWWS), and Ken Cook (SOO of ICT).

## Here is the Outline of the Orientation

- Section 1: Rationale of SBW
- Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training
- Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities
- Section 4: Timelines

**Notes:**
Here is the outline for the briefing. In section 1 , we’ll start out showing WHY we are going to a SBW system and some of the challenges this paradigm shift entails. Then, we’ll talk about the training which will address the specific learning objectives. Section 3 is on roles and responsibilities of the management team in implementing the SBW system and associated training. Section 4 will show the timelines for training delivery and service implementation.

## Section 1: Rationale of SBWs

**County-Based Tornado Warnings**
**8 Counties under warning**
**Almost 1 million people warned**

** ****More specific**
** ****Increased clarity**
** ****Supports new****dissemination technology**

**Section 1: Rationale of SBWs**

**Three simultaneous tornadoes within line of severe thunderstorms  **

**Storm-Based Tornado Warnings**
**70% less area covered**
**~600,000 fewer people warned**

**Notes:**
The next several slides will address the reason WHY the NWS is going to a SBW system.

First, here is an example to illustrate some of the benefits of going from county-based warning to storm-based warnings. In this case, there were actually three significant tornadoes on the ground at the same time. Eight counties were included in tornado warnings, with almost a million people under a tornado warning. With storm-based tornado warnings only those area that are threatened are in the warning, not the entire county. In this case, 70 percent less area was covered by warnings, and approximately 600,000 fewer people would encouraged to take immediate cover. A test of storm-based warnings in 2005, actually showed that warning area could be reduced by around 70 percent. There are several other benefits to going to storm-based warnings including being able to increase specificity and clarity with the warning. The more geographically based warnings also are supported by new dissemination technologies. 

## A Recent Example of SBW with  Greater Precision and Lead Time

- Graphics provided by Ken Waters (PRH)

|  |   Area (sq mi) |
| --- | --- |
| Coffee County | 680.5 |
| Geneva County | 578.9 |
| Combined Counties | 1259.4 |
| Polygon | 363.7 |

- 71% Reduction !

**Storm-Based Warning for Enterprise, AL Tornado****March 1, 2007**

**Notes:**
From Ken Waters. For Enterprise, Ala., the preliminary tornado lead time was 18 minutes. The Tornado Warning that included Enterprise, Ala., included a 71 percent reduction in areas of Coffee and Geneva Counties that did not need the warning. 

## An Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed Area

- Look at the size of the SVR in southern CA
- SBW will significantly reduce size of warned area

**Notes:**
The problem of warning entire counties is especially problematic in the western U.S. where counties are larger. San Bernardino county is the largest county in the U.S. and is 13 times larger than the state of Rhode Island. This warning also included Riverside County. The county warned area is outlined in yellow, and the two counties covered nearly 30,000 Square Miles – about half the state of Illinois. The storm was not moving very fast and the area of threat was actually very small. The storm-based warning would cover less than 300 square miles, about the size of a small county in northern IL. 

## Delineation Improves FFWs

**Notes:**
FFWs by polygon will reduce false alarm areas, just as in TOR/SVR Warnings.  Additionally, basin delineation will improve polygonology and customer service.  There was a poster presentation at the AMS conference by Ken Cook, SOO ICT.  Are your forecasters utilizing local GIS maps on AWIPS?  These will improve awareness for forecasters and information dissemination to customers.

## Graphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warnings

**Notes:**
A recent NSF study shows that a majority of Americans obtain weather information that includes graphic capabilities such as television, the Internet, PDAs, cell phones, etc.

Partners including Brian Busby at the ABC affiliate in Kansas City, MO are beginning to take advantage of these graphic capabilities. His vendor provides the storm-based warnings.  What you see is a screen capture not a pose.  WFO EAX issued a SVR (blue) then upgraded to a TOR (red).  This episode was the first time Brian displayed the polygons.

## Private Sector Use of Storm-Based Warnings Increases 

- Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM Cow)
- http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cow/

**Notes:**
NOAA/NWS in conjunction with Texas A&M held a 2 day workshop in College Station Texas on December 5-6. 

## What are the Digital Dissemination Benefits of SBWs?

- Eye to the future of DEAS (Digital Emergency Alert System)
- Public can receive warning info on a variety of digital devices
- Computers
- Phones
- PDAs
- TV
- Satellite Radio

**Notes:**
The previous slide showed how SBWs can be displayed on TV. More difficult is how to describe a SB warning via text or voice.  For now, EAS still warns entire counties, including NWR. DEAS is under development for possible implementation in 2008 and will go a long way towards solving this problem by immediately activating devices within geo-targeted area.  Of course, that could include devices which are in moving vehicles with enter SB warned areas.
To start plotting a course towards the future, a dissemination workshop was recently held at TAMU with participation by federal, state and local EM staff.  The purpose of the conf. was to discuss how warnings can become more machine readable for rapid transmission over a variety of digital devices.

## SBW Testing Already Underway

- 23 Offices tested SBW ‘05
- Little change in POD
- FAR 10% lower

## What’s New with the SBW Product?

-  Area hatched is described
-   by encoded polygon
-  Direction of Motion added

**Notes:**
The SBW Text product will still contain the plain language description of the location and motion of the weather event just as before. In addition, notice the line near the bottom that begins with Time...Mot. This line encodes the direction of motion of the weather event in meteorological degrees from, its speed in knots, and its latitude and longitude at the issue time of the product. If the weather event in question is a line of storms, then multiple latitude and longitude points will be encoded (but still only one motion). Furthermore, this more accurate description of the weather event motion is utilized to make the follow-up capability work better. 

All other things (UGC codes , VTEC line, etc.) in the format of the Warning Text DO NOT change.

## Legacy Dissemination Technology is County Based  
TV
NOAA Weather Radio  
EAS Activation (FCC) 
Siren Systems (local jurisdictional based)   

Multiple Warnings in One County 
Easy To Differentiate Graphically; Hard to Describe Verbally     
VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines Multiple Warnings For Parsing Computer Programs

- TV
- NOAA Weather Radio
- EAS Activation (FCC)
- Siren Systems (local jurisdictional based)
- Multiple Warnings in One County
- Easy To Differentiate Graphically; **Hard to Describe Verbally****     **
- VTEC Event Tracking Number Uniquely Defines Multiple Warnings For Parsing Computer Programs

**Storm-Based Warning Challenges **

**Notes:**
There are challenges for SBWs:  

The biggest challenge is dissemination technology.  NOAA Wx Radio, EAS activation and many tornado siren systems are based on the whole county warning standard (technically the decision to sound sirens is up to local jurisdictions). It will take several years for a complete transition.   

Finer resolution requires all of us to clearly articulate in graphics and text the location of warnings, when there multiple warnings in effect in a county, and when warnings expire or are cancelled.   

## How to convey uncertainties in Polygons for storm threat evolutions
Deviant movement in supercells
Pulse storms 
Flash flooding 

- Deviant movement in supercells
- Pulse storms
- Flash flooding

**Storm-Based Warning Challenges (cont.)**** **

**Notes:**
There are more challenges for storm-based warnings, for ex., the NWS must ensure our forecasters take environmental factors into account when they issue warnings. We must not cut the baloney too thin for situations where uncertainties exist.

## Challenges for SB WarningsCounty Warning Area Boundaries

**Notes:**
There are challenges for storm-based warnings that still need to be worked out. In the example the tornadic storm is in Randolph County, IL with is in the St. Louis NWS office forecast and warning area. The storm will be moving NE and impact both portions of Perry County, IL that is in Paducah’s County Warning Area (CWA). In this example, ,having multiple warnings for Randolph, Washington, and Perry county is not ideal. It would be better if the one office could issue a storm-based warning for the entire area. To do this will take extensive operational testing to make sure there is adequate collaboration between offices, and that all dissemination systems are prepared to handle this issue.  

## Storm-Based Warnings Require New Set of Performance Measures

| Measure | FY06 | FY07
(new) | FY08 | FY09 | FY10 | FY11 | FY12 | FY13 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) | 75 | 76 |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) | 78 | 75 |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Tornado Lead Time (min.) | 13 | 13 |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) |  |  | 67 | 69 | 70 | 70 | 72 | 72 |
| Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) |  |  | 74 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 70 | 70 |
| Storm-Based Tornado Lead Time (min.) |  |  | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 |

- Government Performance Results Act (GPRA)Tornado Warning Performance Goals

**Notes:**
Because SBWs represent a big change in the way we issue warnings, the way in which we evaluate our performance must also change. The existing performance targets are shown at the top of the table; the new SB targets at the bottom.  These go into effect Oct. 1.
Missed Accuracy – long hot summer resulting in more pulse-type unpredictable storms rather than organized lines.  Or, a record hot June.
A little discussion:   If you think of an archer shooting at a target, if you reduce the size of the target, there will be more misses.  
So, we’ve set our accuracy target lower in 2008 and beyond to reflect this, with expected improvements back towards current values as our forecasters become more experienced with SBW use. Lead Time may also fall statistically because a “miss” is assigned a “zero lead time”. But we expect FAR may actually improve right off the bat;  there are actually trade-offs between “false positives” and “false negatives”. The new numbers are based on an entirely different system and still represent a tremendous service improvement. The apparently falling numbers simply represent that we’ve just set the bar much higher for ourselves.

## Section 2: Overview of the SBW Training

**“****To provide training to all warning forecasters on guidance of issuing effective Storm-Based Warnings”**

**Notes:**
The SBW training that will be delivered later this summer is intended to provide instruction on how to issue effective storm-based warnings. Note, to issue an effective warning requires sound decision making principles involving knowledge of the science, technology, and human factors. The training will focus on the end task of the warning methodology process.   

## Who Should Take the Training?

- Intended Audience
- NOAA/NWS Forecasters with Convective Weather Warning Responsibility
- Pre-requisites
- DLOC or WSR-88D Ops Course Graduate
- Advanced Warning Operations Course (Core and Severe Tracks)
- Deliverables
- 2 hours of material on the LMS (and 1 hr of WES training )
- Printed materials with DVD

**Notes:**
These are some of the training details. 

## What are the Learning Activities?

***+***

**Online Interactive Modules**

**WES Job Sheets**

**Notes:**
Articulates are a way you can play a Powerpoint presentation and hear the author deliver the speaker notes. Note you can start and stop the Articulates (it remembers where you left off).  

## Training Content Details

- Using Polygons to identify threat areas for multiple storm situations
- Isolated and multiple SBW TORs in close proximity
- SBW TORs in lines
- Flash flood SBWs (KS Turnpike Event)

**Notes:**
The training will address various polygon situations such as the ones listed here. 

## Training Content Details (cont.)

- Polygon issues
-  CWA boundaries
-  Gaps in warnings
-  WarnGen limits

**Notes:**
Most of the training is on how to issue storm-based warnings including how to deal with the issues in the current system.

## What are Job Sheets?

- Effective learning applications using mini-WES cases

**Notes:**
The job sheets will take about an hour to run through. They will be abbreviated short WES simulations. We are producing job sheets for multiple learning objectives. The job sheets were optional in winter AWOC but evaluations suggest that these are very effective in learning and transferring the learning to job performance.

## Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities

**Traditional Assumption for Performance Improvement**

**Training → Learning → Transfer**
**=**** Performance**

**Notes:**
This was a traditional mis-assumption that led to very low rates of transfer of learning to performance. If there was a problem with performance, we often blamed it on the learners or training. The whole field of human performance technology has grown to debunk this mis-assumption. As workplace and learning and performance professionals we have discovered the truth and value of the next slide.

## A New Focus on Performance:

-     ***Combination***
***	******      ******of          → Performance → Results***
***    ******Interventions***

**Notes:**
A new equation has emerged since the mid 1990s. For effective performance, it requires much more than knowledge and skills. It requires actions by key stakeholders. This is from abundant research like that from Dr. Mary Broad (2005). The interventions from management are critical in providing the necessary environment to support a performance change, like improvement in SBWs.

## What were MIC Supports that Helped Learning and Performance? 

**Supports Reported**

**Notes:**
From approximately 30 SOOs, who were sampled after AWOC, to determine actions that supported learning and performance. Notice some of the key factors that management performed to make AWOC successful, such as completing the training and orientation.

## What Can Management Do to Help SBWs Succeed?

- Ensure 100% training completion for every office
- Work with User Community to prepare for Service Change
- Support improved storm verification procedures
- Require an annual warning skill performance assessment (using WES)

## Section 4: TimelinesStorm-Based Warning Implementation Schedule

- F    M    A    M    J     J     A      S     O     N      D

**Forecasters Complete ****SBW Training**

**Training Development**

- 2007

**Oct. 1 Service Change**

**Pilot test  of training package**

**OB 8.1 Deploy**

**New LMS released**

**OB 8.1 Beta**

## Who Can Help?

- WDTB Administration (LMS problems, etc.)
- 405-573-3321 (Linda Curtis)
- sbwhelp@wdtb.noaa.gov
- WDTB help on SBW training
- OCWWS SBW Page
- wdtb.noaa.gov

**Notes:**
In addition to your local training officer, WDTB provides a number of options to help alleviate potential problems in executing the training. Take advantage of these mechanisms to make the learning easier. 

## Summary and Questions

- SBWs will provide an excellent opportunity for improvement in warning performance
- But...

*Success Depends on All of Us! *

**Notes:**
We are committed to providing a rewarding learning experience for all participants in the SBW Training Course. But, success in terms of how well it will be accepted and applied depends on all of us. The developers of this course encourage all members of the management team to help provide support for learning and application of these very important learning concepts.