# Presentation: 264316

## RUC/Rapid Refresh Review

**NCEP Production Suite Review - 2008**

- _NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB_
**Stan Benjamin**
**Steve Weygandt**
- Ming Hu
- Dezso Devenyi
- Tanya Smirnova
- Bill Moninger
- John M. Brown
- Kevin Brundage
- Georg Grell
- Brian Jamison
- Steven Peckham
- Susan Sahm
- Tracy Lorraine Smith
- _NCEP/EMC_ – Geoff Manikin
- NCEP/NCO

- Major transitions:
-  RUC13 change package – Nov 2008
- – radar reflectivity assimilation, mesonet, RUC/WRF physics, TAMDAR in RUC by next week
- -- extension to 18h in 4Q FY09
-  Rapid Refresh - in real-time testing, implementation early 2010

_**[http://ruc.noaa.gov](http://ruc.noaa.gov/)**_
_**[http://](http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/)**__**[rapidrefresh.noaa.gov](http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/)**_**  **

**Tues 9 Dec 2008**

## Operational Rapid Update Cycle

**Hourly updated short-range model run at NCEP ****(aviation, severe weather, other tactical applications, general forecast applications)**

** ****Hybrid isentropic coordinate**
** ****Hourly 3DVAR update cycle**
** ****Extensive use of observations**
** ****13-km horizontal resolution**
** ****Explicit 5-class microphysics**
** ****Transition to WRF/GSI-based **
**   ****Rapid-Refresh by early 2010**

**1-hr**
**fcst**

**1-hr**
**fcst**

**1-hr**
**fcst**

**11              12                13**

***Time ***
***(UTC)***

**Analysis**
**Fields**

**3DVAR**

**Obs**

**3DVAR**

**Obs**

**Back-**
**ground**
**Fields**

- Major transitions:
-  RUC13 upgrade @ NCEP –Nov 2008
- – radar reflectivity assimilation
- - TAMDAR (likely on 12/16/08)
-  Improved radiation, convection physics in RUC
-  Oper RUC out to 18h - Sept 2009
-  Rapid Refresh code/scripts to be submitted to NCEP/NCO by 9/09
-  WRF ARW, GSI, North America
-  Implementation in Q2-Q3 2010
-  High-Res Rapid Refresh (HRRR) –  RR nest proposed to NCEP by 2012
-  3km hourly updated 12h forecast
-  In testing at GSD init by radar-enhanced RUC
-  NE Corridor  CONUS, AK

**http://ruc.noaa.gov **

**http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov    **

**HRRR - 3km**

## Nov 2008 Changes for oper RUC upgrade

**Nov 2008 Changes for oper RUC upgrade**
-  _Assimilation_
-  Use of **radar reflectivity** in RUC diabatic digital filter initialization in RUC model
-  **Mesonet winds** using mesonet station uselist
** ****TAMDAR aircraft** observations
- (TAMDAR impact parallel RUC tests at GSD)
- _ __Model physics_
-  RRTM longwave radiation - eliminates sfc warm bias
-  Mod to Grell-Devenyi – decrease areal coverage
-  Mod to RUC land-sfc model – fresh snow density - nighttime temps over snow cover
-  _Post-processing_ – add reflectivity fields, improved RTMA downscaling

## RUC Hourly Assimilation Cycle

- Cycle hydrometeor, soil temp/moisture/snow
- plus atmosphere state variables

_**Hourly obs in 2008 RUC**_
_**Data Type**__**	**__**        ~Number**_
- Rawinsonde (12h)	        80
- NOAA profilers   	        30
- VAD winds  	            110-130
- PBL – profiler/RASS             ~25
- Aircraft  (V,temp)       1400-5000 **TAMDAR (V,T,RH)**     **0 -1800**
- Surface/METAR          1800-2000
- Buoy/ship	          100- 200
- GOES cloud winds      1000-2500
- GOES cloud-top pres   10 km res
- GPS precip water              ~300
- Mesonet (temp, Td)        ~7000
**Mesonet (wind**)           **~4500**
- METAR-cloud-vis-wx        ~1600
**Radar reflectivity****	****     1km**

**New observations assimilated --  RUC upgrade**

**Notes:**
Keep this one—no revision necessary

## RUC Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DDFI)

**full physics**

**RUC Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DDFI)**

** ****-30 min     -15 min         Init          +15 min**

**RUC model forecast**

**Backwards integration,  no physics**

*Obtain initial fields with improved balance*

**Initial DFI in RUC model at NCEP - 1998 - adiabatic DFI**
**Diabatic DFI introduced at NCEP - 2006**

## RUC Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DDFI)

**full physics**

**RUC Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DDFI)**

** ****-30 min     -15 min         Init          +15 min**

**RUC model forecast**

**Backwards integration,  no physics**

*Obtain initial fields with improved balance*

**Initial DFI in RUC model at NCEP - 1998 - adiabatic DFI**
**Diabatic DFI introduced at NCEP - 2006**

**Calculate digital-filter-weighted mean of 3-d fields from each time step over DFI period**

## Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DDFI)New - add assimilation of radar data

**full physics**
**Specify 3-d**
**latent heating **
**from radar **
**reflectivity, **
**lightning **
**data (where**
**available)**

**Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DDFI)****New - add assimilation of radar data**

** ****-30 min     -15 min         Init          +15 min**

**RUC model forecast**

**Backwards integration,  no physics**

*Obtain initial fields with improved balance,** vertical circulations associated with*
*ongoing convection*

**Radar reflectivity assimilation in RUC**

## Sample radar

**NSSL radar **
**reflectivity **
**(dBZ)**

**Z = 3 km  **
**21z 15 Oct 2008**** **

**Temperaure**
**Tendency**
**(K / 15 min)**

**cint = 0.5 K**
**level k = 25**

**Low-level**
**Convergence**

**Upper-level**
**Divergence**

**K=35**** U-comp. diff   **
**(radar - norad)**

**K=15**** U-comp. diff   **
**(radar - norad)**

**cint = 0.2  m/s**

**cint = 0.2  m/s**

**Sample radar**
**assimilation**
**(one cycle)****  **

## Sample radar

**NSSL radar **
**reflectivity **
**(dBZ)**

**Z = 3 km  **
**21z 15 Oct 2008**** **

**Temperaure**
**Tendency**
**(K / 15 min)**

**cint = 0.5 K**
**level k = 25**

**Low-level**
**Convergence**

**Upper-level**
**Divergence**

**K=35**** U-comp. diff   **
**(radar - norad)**

**K=15**** U-comp. diff   **
**(radar - norad)**

**cint = 0.2  m/s**

**cint = 0.2  m/s**

**Sample radar**
**assimilation**
**(one cycle)****  **

**Radar assimilation applied each hour**
**Diff from single update -- cycle with radar assim****   **

## Radar

**Compare RUC cycles**
**w/ and w/o radar assim**** **

**NSSL radar **
**reflectivity **
**(dBZ)**

**Z = 3 km **
**21z 15 Oct 2008**

**RUC Initial**
**Vert. vel.**
**(smoothed)**
**21 z 15 Oct 2008**

**RUC Initial**
**Vert. vel.**
**(smoothed)**
**21 z 15 Oct 2008**

**Radar**

**no rad**

**NSSL **
**3h precip **
**00z 15 Oct**

**0-3 h fcst**
**Acc precip**
**00 z 15 Oct**

**Radar**

**0-3 h fcst**
**Acc precip**
**00 z 15 Oct**

**no rad**

## RUC radar 

**3-h acc.**
**precip.**
** **
**Valid 15z **
**31 July 2008**

**Obs 15z**
**(NSSL)**

**Radar**

**no radar**

**12z init + 3h fcst**

**9z init + 6h fcst**

**12z init + 3h fcst**

**9z init + 6h fcst**

**6z init + 9h fcst**

**6z init + 9h fcst**

**RUC radar **
**assimilation **
**improves **
**forecasts**

**Radar**

**Radar**

**no radar**

**no radar**

## (On RUC assimilation of TAMDAR data) - AMDAR and TAMDAR definitions

**“****AMDAR” (Automated Meteorological Data and Recording) – are automatically sent from commercial aircraft, mostly large jets**
**“****TAMDAR” (Tropospheric AMDAR) – automatic reports from (currently) ~90 turboprops flying regionally in the US Midwest**
- Provided by AirDat LLC
- Agreement between AirDat LLC and
- Mesaba – (regional Northwest subsidiary)
- Republic/Chautauqua Airlines (Delta subsidiary)
- Current 1-year agreement between NWS/FAA and AirDat for use of TAMDAR

**TAMDAR assimilation *not* implemented on 17 Nov 08,**
**Will be implemented next week, likely Tues 16 Dec 208**

## Aircraft reports below 20 Kft without TAMDAR

- 12-18z 9 October 2008

## Aircraft reports below 20 Kft including TAMDAR

- Aircraft reports below 20 Kft **including** TAMDAR
- 12-18z 9 October 2008

- Aircraft reports below 20 Kft **including** TAMDAR
- 12-18z 9 October 2008

## Aircraft reports below 20 Kft, TAMDAR only

- Aircraft reports below 20 Kft, **TAMDAR only**
- 12-18z 9 October 2008

- Aircraft reports below 20 Kft, **TAMDAR only**
- 12-18z 9 October 2008

## TAMDAR – regional aircraft

- _TAMDAR – regional aircraft_
- _ __with V/T/RH obs_
- GSD impact study with RUC parallel cycles
-  2005-2007 (ongoing)
-  10-30% reduction in
- RH, temperature, wind fcst error w/ TAMDAR assimilation

- 3h Fcst errors – RUCdev (no TAMDAR), RUCdev2 (w/ TAMDAR)

- noTAM

- wTAM

*Temp*

*RH*

*Wind*

- wTAM

- wTAM

- noTAM

- noTAM

## NCEP Evaluations -  PARALLEL RUC 

- Started Nov 2007
- Radar refl data available by 2/08
- Extended summer 4/25 – 8/18/08
- Winter retro test - Feb 2008

## 2m

**2m**
**T**

**2m**
**Td**

- 12h fcsts
- - Valid
-    12z

**Effect of RRTM LW radiation**

**para**

**bias**

**oper**

**rms**

**rms**

**para**

**oper**

**Apr        May                     June                         July                     Aug****   2008      **

## Effect of mods to moisture background error covariance in RUC 3dvar, higher obs error

**Effect of mods to moisture background error covariance in RUC 3dvar, higher obs error**

## Effect of RRTM LW radiation on precip-type, microphysics

**Effect of RRTM LW radiation on precip-type, microphysics**

## Effect of LSM mod - RUC snow cover, density of fresh snow

**Effect of LSM mod - RUC snow cover, density of fresh snow**
**- less excessive cold temps**

## NCEP RUC parallel reflectivity assimilation example

**NCEP RUC parallel ****reflectivity assimilation example**

**NSSL 3-h **
**precipitation**

**NCEP para RUC**
**0-3 fcst precip**

**NCEP oper RUC**
**0-3 fcst precip**

**  ****03z **
**Feb 6 **
**2008**

**Radar**

**no rad**

**  ****03z **
**Feb 6 **
**2008**

**  ****03z **
**Feb 6 **
**2008**

## Radar refl - obs

**Radar refl - obs**
**12 Feb 2008**
**18z**

**Max refl - 6h fcst**
**Para RUC**
**12 Feb 2008 - 18z**

## Radar assimilation impact on

**Radar assimilation impact on**
**RUC precipitation skill scores **

** ****Four 0-3h forecasts vs. one 0-12h forecast**
** ****Summer - ****Daytime**

**Oper RUC**

**Para RUC**

**4x 3-h**

**12z – 00z  (12-h period)**

**1 June – 31 Aug 2008**

**12-h**

**4x 3-h**

**12-h**

## Changes for oper RUC upgrade

**Changes for oper RUC upgrade**
-  _Assimilation_
-  Use of **radar reflectivity** in diabatic DFI in RUC model    (also, hydrometeor assimilation component)
-  **Mesonet winds** using mesonet station uselist
** ****TAMDAR aircraft** observations
- (TAMDAR impact parallel RUC tests at GSD)
-  Higher obs error for moisture, wind observations
- _ __Model physics_
-  RRTM longwave radiation - eliminates sfc warm bias
-  Mod to Grell-Devenyi – decrease excessive areal coverage
-  Mods to RUC land-sfc model
-  fresh snow density - nighttime temps over snow cover
-  limit on melting rate- allows warmer 2m temps over snow
-  _Post-processing_
-  add reflectivity fields, fixed land-sfc fields (as in NAM, GFS)
-  improved RTMA downscaling

## RRTM Longwave Radiation in RUC Upgrade

**RRTM Longwave Radiation in RUC Upgrade**
**Effect on 2-m temperature forecasts**
-  Much decreased warm bias near surface

- 1-month comparison
- 14 May –13 June 07
- Eastern US only

- RUC para – RRTM LW

- RUC oper – Dudhia LW

- 2-m temp bias (obs – forecast)

- COLD    WARM

- 12h

- 12h

- 3h

- 3h

** ****0      3      6       9     12     15     18    21**
**                            ****UTC**

**(Similar results in**
**April-May 2008)**

## _x0003__x0016_

- 12h fcst – valid 09z 30 Oct

- Oper RUC

- Para RUC

- 09z analysis

- DIFF - para-oper

- Better 2m temp forecast
- From para RUC w/ RRTM LW

## Changes for oper RUC upgrade

**Changes for oper RUC upgrade**
-  _Assimilation_
-  Use of **radar reflectivity** in diabatic DFI in RUC model    (also, hydrometeor assimilation component)
-  **Mesonet winds** using mesonet station uselist
** ****TAMDAR aircraft** observations
- (TAMDAR impact parallel RUC tests at GSD)
-  Higher obs error for moisture, wind observations
- _ __Model physics_
-  RRTM longwave radiation - eliminates sfc warm bias
-  Mod to Grell-Devenyi – decrease areal coverage
-  Mods to RUC land-sfc model
-  fresh snow density - nighttime temps over snow cover
-  limit on melting rate- allows warmer 2m temps
-  _Post-processing_
-  add reflectivity fields, fixed land-sfc fields (as in NAM, GFS)
-  improved RTMA downscaling

## RUC to Rapid Refresh

**13-km North American **
**   ****	****domain**
**WRF ARW model**
**GSI ****(Gridpoint Statistical ****	****Interpolation)**

**13km CONUS **
**	****domain **
**RUC model**
**RUC 3DVAR**

## RUC and Rapid Refresh domains

**Rapid Refresh**
**NCEP implement:**
**Planned 2010**
**Features:**
**1-h cycling**
**Cloud analysis**
**Radar / lightning**
**  ****assimilation**
**Current testing:**
**2 parallel cycles  at ESRL/GSD**

## RR version of WRF model   

**	****ARW core**
**	****Grell-Devenyi convection**
**	**** ****MYJ (NCEP/NAM) surface layer,**
**	**** ****	****turbulent vertical mixing above surface layer**
**NCAR-Thompson microphysics**
**	**** ****GFDL radiation (longwave and shortwave **
**	****	****with cloud effects)**
**	**** ****RUC Land-Surface Model****  (diversity from Noah LSM ****	****	****in anticipation of ensemble RR by 2012)**
**	**** ****Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DDFI) radar assim **

**RR version of WRF model   **

***Components in***
***red match RUC***

***Result:   RR physics behavior similar to RUC – ***
***good for aviation applications and convective environment****** ***

## RR data assimilation (using GSI)  

**Hourly update cycle**
- - Use of observations (NA prepBUFR + satellite data)
- - Satellite bias corrections (from NCEP)
**Cloud analysis**
- - Uses METAR, satellite, radar data
- - Updates cloud, hydrometeor, water vapor fields
- - Diagnose latent heating from 3d radar reflectivity data
**Radar reflectivity assimilation**
- - Apply latent heating in diabatic digital filter initialization
**Surface observation assimilation **-- ongoing
- - Account for model vs. terrain height difference
- - Apply surface observation innovations through PBL
- - Select best background for coastal observations

**RR data assimilation (using GSI)  **

## RR data assimilation (using GSI)  

**Hourly update cycle**
- - Use of observations (NA prepBUFR + satellite data)
- - Satellite bias corrections (from NCEP)
**Cloud analysis**
- - Uses METAR, satellite, radar data
- - Updates cloud, hydrometeor, water vapor fields
- - Diagnose latent heating from radar data
**Radar reflectivity assimilation**
- - Apply latent heating in diabatic digital filter initialization
**Surface observation assimilation **-- ongoing
- - Account for model vs. terrain height difference
- - Apply surface observation innovations through PBL
- - Select best background for coastal observations

**RR data assimilation (using GSI)  **

## Slide 35

## Slide 36

## Radar data assimilation using Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DDFI)RR coding complete, evaluation ongoing

**full physics**
**Apply latent **
**heating **
**from radar **
**reflectivity, **
**lightning **
**data**

**Radar data assimilation using ****Diabatic Digital Filter Initialization (DDFI)****RR coding complete, evaluation ongoing**

** ****-30 min     -15 min         Init          +15 min**

**Rapid Refresh model forecast**

**Backwards integration,  no physics**

*Obtain initial fields with improved balance,** vertical circulations associated with*
*ongoing convection*

## Rapid Refresh (GSI + ARW) reflectivity assimilation example

**Rapid Refresh (GSI + ARW) ****reflectivity assimilation example**

**Low-level**
**Convergence**

**Upper-level**
**Divergence**

**K=4**** U-comp. diff   **
**(radar - norad)**

**K=17**** U-comp. diff   **
**(radar - norad)**

**NSSL radar **
**reflectivity (dBZ)**

**14z 22 Oct 2008**
**Z = 3 km**** **

## Evolution of RR ConfigurationComparison for 7-day retrospective period 

**Operational RUC**
**RR Jan. 2008**
- Global background
-   error covariance
**RR June 2008**
- Regional background
-   error covariance
**RR  Oct. 2008**
- New regional GSI
- WRFv3
- DFI

**RUC**

**RR**
**Oct.**

**RR**
**June**

**RR**
**Jan.**

**Vertical profile -  12h fcst vector wind RMS error (m/s)**

##  Two real-time experimental RR      

** ****Two real-time experimental RR      **
**   ****hourly cycles running at ESRL**
** ****Testing & refinement ongoing**
** ****Internal evaluation vs. RUC**
** ****Transfer grids to NWS Alaska**

**rapidrefresh.noaa.gov**

## RR 12-h fcst

**RR 12-h fcst**

**RUC 12-h fcst**

**250 wind valid**
**12z Dec 6, 2008**

**RUC 0-h fcst**

**Vector RMS model diff**

**10 knot bands**

## RR 12-h fcst

**RR 12-h fcst**

**RUC 12-h fcst**

**850-500 RH**
**12z Dec 6, 2008**

**RUC 0-h fcst**

**RR-RUC diff**

**RR  more moist**

**RR  drier**

## RR 9-h fcst

**RR 9-h fcst**

**RUC 9-h fcst**

**RUC 0-h fcst**

**RR-RUC diff**

**RUC  colder**

**RUC  warmer**

**5 deg F **
**bands**

**2m Temp valid**
**21z Dec 5, 2008**

## RR 12-h fcst

**RR 12-h fcst**

**RUC 12-h fcst**

**RUC 0-h fcst**

**RR-RUC diff**

**RUC  colder**

**RUC  warmer**

**5 deg F **
**bands**

**2m Temp valid**
**12z Dec 9, 2008**

## RR 12-h fcst

**RR 12-h fcst**

**RUC 12-h fcst**

**NSSL 12-h precip verif**

**12-h accum. precipitation**
**00z Dec 5, 2008**

## RR 12-h fcst

**RR 12-h fcst**

**RUC 12-h fcst**

**NSSL 12-h precip verif**

**12-h accum. precipitation**
**03z Dec 7, 2008**

## RR 12-h fcst

**RR 12-h fcst**

**RUC 12-h fcst**

**NSSL 12-h precip verif**

**12-h accum. precipitation**
**12z Dec 9, 2008**

## TAMDARObservationsin Rapid Refresh

- Aircraft reports below 20 Kft
**TAMDAR only **
**including PenAir**
- 12-23z 9 October 2008

**TAMDAR****Observations****in Rapid Refresh**

## Sample RR Alaska (grid 249) forecasts

**Sample RR Alaska ****(grid 249) forecasts**

**Surface obs**
**12z Dec 6, 2008**

**RR 12-h 2m Temp.  fcst**

**RR 12-h precip.  fcst**

## Rapid Refresh – Summary

**Current status (Dec. 2008)**
- - Two parallel real-time hourly cycles at ESRL/GSD
- - Ongoing evaluation & refinement, ftp grids to AK NWS
**Remaining RR work at ESRL/GSD**
- - Shake-down cloud analysis, radar assimilation
- - Refine error statistics for RR hourly cycle
- - Complete special treatment for surface observations
- - Complete modifications to WRFPOST for RR fields
**Tasks for NCEP implementation (planned 2010)**
- - RR code ported to NCEP Aug. 2008
- - Modify existing NCEP scripts to for 1-h cycling
- - Real-time 1-h RR cycle experimental at NCEP
- - Satisfy requirements (forecast skill, timing, etc.)
- - Port code to NCO, final parallel tests, implement

**Rapid Refresh – Summary**

- Major transitions:
-  RUC13 change package –Aug 2008
- – radar reflectivity assimilation
- - TAMDAR
-  Improved radiation, convection physics in RUC
-  Rapid Refresh code/scripts submitted to NCEP/NCO by 9/09
-  WRF ARW, GSI, North America
-  High-Res Rapid Refresh (HRRR) –  RR nest proposed to NCEP by 2012
-  3km hourly updated 12h forecast
-  In testing at GSD init by radar-enhanced RUC
-  NE Corridor  CONUS, AK

** **

**http://ruc.noaa.gov **

**http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov    **

**HRRR - 3km**

## Sample HRRR init by Radar-Enhanced RUC 

**Sample HRRR init by Radar-Enhanced RUC **

**NSSL verification**

**6-h forecasts valid**
**06z 16 Aug 2007**

**No-radar init -  3-km run**

**HRRR 3-km run initialized **
**From radar-enhanced RUC**

**1.  **_**HRRR already in testing**_
**2. **_**Radar-enhanced RUC**_** essential for HRRR forecast success**

## Truth

**Radar**
**HRRR**

**6 hr fcst**
**8 pm EDT**

**Truth**

**8 pm EDT**

**20 July **
**2008**
**2 pm**
**initial**
**time**

**(3-km Hi-Res Rapid Refresh)**
**High resolution needed for **
**Realistic storm structure **
**(storm-types, line gaps, etc.)****  **
**RUC radar assimilation **
**improves HRRR**

**norad**
**HRRR**

**6 hr fcst**
**8 pm EDT**

## Toward model-based Air Traffic Mgmt (ATM) guidance

*HRRR ensembles*

*ATM probabilities*

*HRRR and*
*HRRR-based*
*probabilities*
*Important for*
*automated*
*ATM*

- norad

- HRRR forecasts

- radar

- Radar assimilation improves
- HRRR forecast through 12-h
- HRRR storm structure allows
- extraction of ATM information

**CSI**

**Forecast Length (hours)**

**3-km 30 dBZ**
**verification**

**1 June – 31 Aug 2008**

## Summer 09 HRRR domain 

**Summer 09 HRRR domain**** **

**Covers key**
**areas of  **
**interest**
**for aviation **
**and severe**
**weather**
**967 x 763**
**3-km res**

## RUC, Rapid Refresh and

**HRRR**

**RUC – ****NCEP**
**upgrade 17 Nov 08**** (Radar refl assim, TAMDAR RH, RRTM longwave radiation).**
**All runs to 18h- Sept09**
**RR – ****2010 at NCEP**
**2 R/T cycles at GSD, full radiance assim, cloud anx + radar assimilation**
** **
**HRRR – ****FAA demo for aviation impact, radar assim from RUC,**
** **
**12-h fcst each hour **

**13km Rapid Refresh domain**

**13km RUC CONUS domain**

**2009 Exp HRRR domain**

- Major transitions:
-  RUC13 change package – Nov 2008
- – radar reflectivity assimilation
- - TAMDAR
-  Improved radiation, convection physics in RUC
-  RUC out to 18h hourly by 4Q FY09
-  Rapid Refresh RFCed for ops by 9/09
-  WRF ARW, GSI, North America
-  implemented early 2010
-  Ensemble Rapid Refresh
-  proposed by 2012, to use ESMF framework
-  High-Res Rapid Refresh (HRRR) –  RR nest proposed to NCEP by 2012
-  3km hourly updated 12h forecast incl. radar reflectivity assimilation
-  Demo testing at ESRL/GSD

** **

_**[http://](http://uc.noaa.gov/)**__**[ruc.noaa.gov](http://uc.noaa.gov/)**_** **

_**[http://](http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/)**__**[rapidrefresh.noaa.gov](http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/)**_**  **

**2009 Exp HRRR **

- Major transitions:
-  RUC13 change package – Nov 2008
- – radar reflectivity assimilation
- - TAMDAR
-  Improved radiation, convection physics in RUC
-  RUC out to 18h hourly by 4Q FY09
-  Rapid Refresh RFCed for ops by 9/09
-  WRF ARW, GSI, North America
-  implemented early 2010
-  Ensemble Rapid Refresh
-  proposed by 2012, to use ESMF framework
-  High-Res Rapid Refresh (HRRR) –  RR nest proposed to NCEP by 2012
-  3km hourly updated 12h forecast incl. radar reflectivity assimilation
-  Demo testing at ESRL/GSD

** **

_**[http://](http://uc.noaa.gov/)**__**[ruc.noaa.gov](http://uc.noaa.gov/)**_** **

_**[http://](http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/)**__**[rapidrefresh.noaa.gov](http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/)**_**  **

**2009 Exp HRRR **

**Thanks to NCEP Centers (EMC, NCO, AWC, SPC, etc.), NWS Regions, NWSFOs, FAA, NCAR, U.Okla**
**Priv sector (WxChannel, etc.)**

**+ FIM 30/15km, FIM-chem, HRRR-chem**

## Add

**RapidRefresh**
**= RR**

**HRRR**
**init**

**Add**
**High-Resolution Rapid Refresh - ****HRRR**
**  ****- 3km, 15-60min updated nest inside Rapid Refresh**
**  ****- proposed to NCEP and FAA**

## Expand

**RapidRefresh**
**= RR**

**Expand**
**High-Resolution Rapid Refresh - ****HRRR**
**  ****- 3km, 15-60min updated nest inside Rapid Refresh**
**  ****- proposed to NCEP and FAA**
**  ****- CONUS, Alaska**

**HRRR**
**later**

## Part 2 – convection suppression

**Part 2 – convection suppression**
**(for cap in Grell-Devenyi scheme)**

** ****Define suppression areas as follows:**
** ****No reflectivity > 20 dbZ within 100 km**
** ****Depth of radar coverage > 300 hPa**
** ****Augmented by GOES fully clear areas **

**Design in RUC model:**
**Specify min cap depth **
**as 0 hPa to limit convection in DFI **_***and ***_**first 30 min in actual forecast**

**Case from March 2007**

## Convective suppression example

**NSSL 3-h **
**precipitation**

**Add conv suppression to radar assimilation**

**Control - radar assim without suppression**

**convective suppression - *****How does it work? – ******Reduces latent heating, vert. motion in erroneous conv areas***

**Real-time 3-h  forecasts valid 15z 7 June 2007**

**Valid 15z  7 June 2007**

**Convective suppression example**

## (3-km Hi-Res Rapid Refresh)

High resolution needed for realistic storm 
structure (storm-types, gaps in lines, etc.)  

Hourly 12-h forecast, 15-min VIL output

RUC radar assimilation improves HRRR

- (3-km Hi-Res Rapid Refresh)
- High resolution needed for realistic storm
- structure (storm-types, gaps in lines, etc.)
- Hourly 12-h forecast, 15-min VIL output
- RUC radar assimilation improves HRRR

- Storm-scale model guidance

- radar
- HRRR

- 6 hr fcst
- 8 pm EDT

- Truth

- 8 pm EDT

**20 July 2008**
**2 pm initial time**

**initial time**
**storm coverage**

**CSI**

**3-km 20 dBZ**
**verification**

**Initial time**
**Valid time**

- radar
- norad

**Forecast**
**length**

- 6-h fcsts

- HRRR

**Verification:  1 June – 31 August 2008**

## Storm-scale model guidance

- norad
- HRRR

- 6 hr fcst
- 8 pm EDT

- Truth

- 8 pm EDT

**initial time**
**storm coverage**

**CSI**

**3-km 20 dBZ**
**verification**

**Initial time**
**Valid time**

- radar
- norad

**Forecast**
**length**

- 6-h fcsts

- HRRR

- (3-km Hi-Res Rapid Refresh)
- High resolution needed for realistic storm
- structure (storm-types, gaps in lines, etc.)
- Hourly 12-h forecast, 15-min VIL output
- RUC radar assimilation improves HRRR

**20 July 2008**
**2 pm initial time**

**Verification:  1 June – 31 August 2008**

## Rapid 

**Refresh**
**RUC**
**HRRR**
**FIM**

## Radar assimilation impact on

**3-h precipitation skill scores **

**Para RUC**

** ****Four 0-3h forecasts **
** ****Summer - ****Nighttime**

**Oper RUC**

**2.0**
**1.0**
**0.**

**Bias**

## radar 

**10 July 2008**
**(init conds from RUC w/ and w/o radar assim)**

**20 dBZ **
**CSI .17**

**radar**** **