# Presentation: 214465

## USACE Support for Commercial Infrastructure Network Disruption Analysis (CINDA)

**USACE Support for ****Commercial Infrastructure Network Disruption Analysis (CINDA)**

**Infrastructure Security Workshop**
**14 May 2008**
**ERDC-CERL James Wilcoski**

## Provide Army Critical Infrastructure Risk Management Planners Estimates of Down Time of Commercial Infrastructure Systems:
 Number of days systems are unavailable
 Natural hazards and man-made threats
 For each US FEMA region and countries with US Army Garrisons 

**Objective**

- Provide Army Critical Infrastructure Risk Management Planners Estimates of Down Time of Commercial Infrastructure Systems:
-  Number of days systems are unavailable
-  Natural hazards and man-made threats
-  For each US FEMA region and countries with US Army Garrisons

## Communications
Electric Power
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Transportation
Aviation systems
Road systems
Rail systems
Maritime systems
Water Systems

**Commercial Infrastructures**

- Communications
- Electric Power
- Petroleum
- Natural Gas
- Transportation
- Aviation systems
- Road systems
- Rail systems
- Maritime systems
- Water Systems

**FEMA REGIONS**

##  Very Rapid (45 day) study permitted only data mining for accessing the impact of each hazard
 Future studies should consider probability of each hazard

**Hazards and Threats**

-  Very Rapid (45 day) study permitted only data mining for accessing the impact of each hazard
-  Future studies should consider probability of each hazard

| Earthquake | Tornado |
| --- | --- |
| Hurricane | Transportation Accident |
| Pandemic Outbreak | Tsunami |
| Storm – Summer | Volcano |
| Storm – Winter | Wildfire |
| Man Made Threat | 
 |

## Natural Disasters

**Natural Disasters**

- The main disaster categories are:
**Hydrological disasters** including floods, landslides, mudflows, avalanches, storms, typhoons, cyclones, hurricanes, winter storms, tornadoes, tropical storms, droughts, wildfires and extreme temperatures.
**Geological disasters** include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, and tidal waves.
**Windstorms** and related disasters include storms, typhoons, cyclones, hurricanes, winter storms, tornadoes and tropical storms.
**Droughts** and related disasters include droughts, extreme temperatures, and wildfires.

**Notes:**
Many more natural hazards exist, but we can’t talk about everything. 

## Natural Disasters

**Natural Disasters**

- In million 2006 US$

**Worldwide economic damages due to natural disasters (1987 – 2006)**

**Notes:**
Certain statistically infrequent, high-impact events can skew the data, we must look at the overall trendlines.  Not realistic to predict impacts or plan for an event like Hurricane Katrina or the Kobe earthquake (I disagree, this is what we are doing with the NMSZ)

## Flooding

**Flooding**

- World’s most common natural disaster.
- Some are seasonal, while others are sudden (i.e., flash floods).
- On average, in the US floods kill about 140 people per year and cause $6 billion in property damage.
- In 2006, 235 reported events of flooding, accounting for 55% of all disasters registered worldwide in that year.

## Earthquakes

**Earthquakes**

- An earthquake is by far the most destructive short-term natural force on Earth.
- In addition to primary ground shaking, secondary effects include ground displacement along fault lines, differential ground settlement, soil liquefaction, land and mudslides, submarine avalanches, snow and ice avalanches, tsunamis, floods from dam failures.
- Damage can also result from fires from broken gas lines and other flammable materials that burn out of control.
- Fire fighting efforts are often hampered by broken water mains and debris (e.g., Kobe)

**Notes:**
1995 Kobe earthquake caused 1800 potable water distribution pipeline failures and 10,000 service line failures. 100+ fire ignitions caused 86 water tanks to be drained within 6 hours, limiting water for fire suppression. 
1994 Northridge earthquake caused 100 fire ignitions (natural gas).  24 major water transmission pipeline failures and 1000+ distribution pipeline failures caused system to collapse.

## Earthquakes

**Earthquakes**

**Notes:**
Kobe earthquake caused 1800 potable water distribution pipeline failures and 10,000 service line failures. 100+ fire ignitions caused 86 water tanks to be drained within 6 hours, limiting water for fire suppression. 

Northridge earthquake caused 100 fire ignitions (natural gas).  24 major water transmission pipeline failures and 1000+ distribution pipeline failures caused system to collapse.  

## Hurricanes / Typhoons

**Hurricanes / Typhoons**

- Hurricanes, also called typhoons or tropical cyclones, are intense cyclonic storms that develop over the warm oceans of the tropics.
- Tropical cyclones are the most deadly and destructive type of severe weather event on our planet.
- The damage that hurricanes inflict is caused by high wind speeds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, and tornadoes.
- Category (Saffir-Simpson scale 1 – 5) of the hurricane is not always an accurate predictor of its destructive potential.

**Notes:**
One of the most destructive hurricanes in the last 100 years was the Bhola cyclone (category 3) that made landfall on the Bangladesh coastline on November 12 of 1970. This storm had a minimal pressure reading of 966 millibars and maximum sustained winds of about 185 km/hr. Estimates suggest that over 300,000 people died from this storm. 

Katrina (category 3) was the most destructive storm of the 2005 season causing over 81 billion dollars of damage. 

## Hurricanes / Typhoons

**Hurricanes / Typhoons**

**Notes:**
Pakistan (CENTCOM) is vulnerable to typhoons on its coast, which could cause logistical impacts to operations in Afghanistan. 

## Wildfires

**Wildfires**

- Wildfires are a growing natural hazard in the US, posing a threat to life and property.  Most common in regions where native ecosystems meet developed areas, or the wild land/urban interface.
- In some ecosystems fire plays a significant role in ecological cycles; in other ecosystems fire may lead to the destruction of forests or long-term site degradation.
- Fires often interact with other hazards, e.g. downed woody fuels from hurricanes or tornadoes and a subsequent drought.
- Secondary effects of destructive wildfires include the loss of vegetation that protects the soil, wind and water erosion, and increased water runoff leading to disastrous floods and landslides.

## Wildfires

**Wildfires**

## Volcanic Eruptions

**Volcanic Eruptions**

- When pressure builds up within a volcano's molten rock, it can erupt, sending lava flows, poisonous gases, flying rock and ash that can travel hundreds of miles downwind
- Mudflows or debris flows (lahars) can rush down valleys and stream channels at speeds of 20 to 40 miles per hour and can travel more than 50 miles
- Also damage to buildings, transportation systems, electrical grids, water systems, industrial plants, and farm lands, by tephra (ash and flying debris), lahars, and flooding

## Volcanic Eruptions

**Volcanic Eruptions**

**Active volcanoes, plate tectonics, and the “Ring of Fire”**

## Tsunami

**Tsunami**

- A series of very long wavelength ocean waves caused by the sudden displacement of water by earthquakes, landslides, or submarine slumps.
- In the open ocean, tsunami waves can reach speeds exceeding 600 mph (970 km/hr), but their wave heights are usually only a few centimeters.
- As tsunami waves approach the shallow water of the coast, they can crest to heights exceeding 100 feet (30 m) and strike with devastating force.
- There are an average of two destructive tsunamis per year in the Pacific basin.

## Tornadoes

**Tornadoes**

- Violent tornadoes (F4 on the Fujita Scale) occur almost exclusively in the eastern United States, while strong tornadoes (intensities F2 and F3) also occur in areas of North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia

## Winter Storms

**Winter Storms**

- A catastrophic ice storm is the natural hazard with the greatest potential to cause major damage to electric power transmission and distribution systems over a broad region.
- Winter storms may cause heavy precipitation and snow, ice storms, wind storms, extreme cold temperatures, elevated sea levels, and coastal flooding.
- Impacts from winter storms include cuts of power and communication lines, damage to property and infrastructure, disruption of sea, air and land transport, forest losses, coastal erosion, evacuation of inhabitants, and impacts on industrial and energy sectors.

**Notes:**
Heavy snow can immobilize a region and paralyze a city, stranding commuters, closing airports, stopping the flow of supplies, and disrupting emergency and medical services.

Europe experiences heavy economic losses from deforestation due to winter storms.  Other impacts include loss of power from impacts to wind generation, and the shutdown of nuclear reactors due to rising water, freezing cooling reservoirs, and downed power lines. 

## Infrastructure Networks

**Infrastructure Networks**

- Infrastructure networks are interdependent.

**Notes:**
Just an example representing the idea of interdependency, not specific dependencies.  i.e. the arrows are not all correct, so just brief the concept, not the individual linkages. 

## Communications networks and systems are composed primarily of electronic data, video, and voice assets.  
They include transmission media, transport, equipment, facilities, telephone, cable, Internet, fiber optic, and mass notification equipment. 
Natural disasters affect communications networks and systems distribution networks and facilities by physical damage or overloading to the point of failure the systems’ capacity, redundancy, security, and reliability.

**Communicatio****ns**

- Communications networks and systems are composed primarily of electronic data, video, and voice assets.
- They include transmission media, transport, equipment, facilities, telephone, cable, Internet, fiber optic, and mass notification equipment.
- Natural disasters affect communications networks and systems distribution networks and facilities by physical damage or overloading to the point of failure the systems’ capacity, redundancy, security, and reliability.

**Notes:**
These communications networks and/or systems include transmission media (antenna systems, radio / satellite / microwave communications),  transport (area networks), equipment and facilities (switches, terminals, exchanges) as well as  telephone, cable, Internet, fiber optic, and mass notification equipment.

## Communication Losses

**Communication Losses**

| Hazard | FEMA Region |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Region I | Region II | Region III | Region IV | Region V | Region VI | Region VII | Region VIII | Region IX | Region X |
| Winter Storm | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Summer Storm | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Earthquake | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Wild Fire | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hurricane | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 0 | N/A | N/A | - | N/A |
| Tornado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
| Volcano | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 |
| Tsunami | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A | 0 | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 |
| Pandemic Outbreak | 5.4 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 10 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.4 |
| Man Made Threats | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Days of Outage |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

## U.S. electrical power network is composed of more than 6,000 electrical power generation stations energized with coal, oil, gas, hydro, wind or nuclear fission.  
Electricity generation stations are interconnected in a system called power grids.  Power from these stations is moved around the country on almost a half-million miles of bulk transmission lines that carry high voltage charges of electricity.  

**Electric Power**

- U.S. electrical power network is composed of more than **6,000 electrical power generation stations** energized with coal, oil, gas, hydro, wind or nuclear fission.
- Electricity generation stations are interconnected in a system called power grids.  Power from these stations is moved around the country on almost a **half-million miles of bulk transmission lines** that carry high voltage charges of electricity.

- While the power system in North America is referred to as “the grid,” there are actually three distinct and electrically independent power grids or “interconnections”.

## Electric Power

**Electric Power**

| Hazard | FEMA Region |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Region I | Region II | Region III | Region IV | Region V | Region VI | Region VII | Region VIII | Region IX | Region X |
| Winter Storm | 4.1 | 11.3 | 4 | 6.5 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 11.2 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 16.7 |
| Summer Storm | 2.5 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 11.6 | - | 5.4 | 1.7 |
| Earthquake | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Wild Fire | 0.1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 23.4 | - |
| Hurricane | - | - | 11.6 | 18 | N/A | 13.1 | N/A | N/A | - | N/A |
| Tornado | - | - | 0 | 0.3 | 6.2 | - | 0 | - | - | - |
| Volcano | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | - | - |
| Tsunami | - | - | - | - | N/A | - | N/A | N/A | - | - |
| Pandemic Outbreak | 9.8 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 18.2 | 17.1 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 14.4 | 9.8 |
| Man Made Threat | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
|   | Days of Outage |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

## Petroleum Pipelines / Natural Gas 

**Petroleum Pipelines /** **Natural Gas **

- Approximately **200,000 miles of oil pipelines** span America, and are mostly located underground for aesthetic and safety reasons.

- More than 107 Natural Gas interstate systems and 90 non-interstate systems account for **over 297,000 miles of NG pipeline**.

## Petroleum Pipelines

**Petroleum Pipelines**

| Hazard | FEMA Region |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Region I | Region II | Region III | Region IV | Region V | Region VI | Region VII | Region VIII | Region IX | Region X |
| Winter Storm | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Summer Storm | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Earthquake | - | - | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Wild Fire | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hurricane | - | - | 2 | 2 | N/A | 14 | N/A | N/A | 1 | N/A |
| Tornado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volcano | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 |
| Tsunami | - | - | - | - | N/A | - | N/A | N/A | - | 7 |
| Pandemic Outbreak | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 7 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 3.8 |
| Man Made Threat | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
|   | Days of Outage |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

## Natural Gas Pipelines 

**Natural Gas Pipelines **

| Hazard | FEMA Region |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Region I | Region II | Region III | Region IV | Region V | Region VI | Region VII | Region VIII | Region IX | Region X |
| Winter Storm | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Summer Storm | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Earthquake | - | - | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 5 |
| Wild Fire | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hurricane | - | - | 1.5 | 2 | N/A | 2 | N/A | N/A | 1 | N/A |
| Tornado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volcano | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0 | 0 |
| Tsunami | - | - | - | - | N/A | - | N/A | N/A | - | 4 |
| Pandemic Outbreak | 1.7 | 2 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Man Made Threat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|   | Days of Outage |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

## Rail
rail operations that support the Army’s capability to deploy forces and supply material. 
Road
any land-based, non-rail network that supports the Army’s capability to deploy forces and supply material.
Air
airlift operations that support the Army’s capability to maneuver forces and supply material. 
Maritime
seaport operations that support the Army’s capability to deploy forces and supply material. 

**Transportation**

- Rail
- rail operations that support the Army’s capability to deploy forces and supply material.
- Road
- any land-based, non-rail network that supports the Army’s capability to deploy forces and supply material.
- Air
- airlift operations that support the Army’s capability to maneuver forces and supply material.
- Maritime
- seaport operations that support the Army’s capability to deploy forces and supply material.

## The means by which water is extracted, treated, stored, and delivered to consumers.  
Virtually all water supply networks deliver a single quality of water, whether it is to be used for drinking, firefighting, or industrial purposes.  
Wastewater refers to sewage, storm water, and water that has been used for various purposes around the community. 

**Water Systems**

- The means by which water is extracted, treated, stored, and delivered to consumers.
- Virtually all water supply networks deliver a single quality of water, whether it is to be used for drinking, firefighting, or industrial purposes.
- Wastewater refers to sewage, storm water, and water that has been used for various purposes around the community.

## Caribbean Seismic HazardExpected Peak Horizontal Ground Acceleration

**Caribbean Seismic Hazard**Expected Peak Horizontal Ground Acceleration

- (Retrieved from _[http://www.oas.org/CDMP/document/seismap/regional.htm](http://www.oas.org/CDMP/document/seismap/regional.htm)_ May 2, 2008)

## Caribbean Wind Hazard Wind Speeds (100-yr return period)

**Caribbean Wind Hazard** Wind Speeds (100-yr return period)

- (Retrieved from _[http://www.oas.org/cdera/document/reglstrm/Hurratlas7B.ppt](http://www.oas.org/cdera/document/reglstrm/Hurratlas7B.ppt)_  May 6, 2008)

**Notes:**
The Arbiter of Storms (TAOS) and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) wind module were used for tropical hazard and storm surge assessment by Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
The Arbiter of Storms (TAOS) was developed in the early 1990s, incorporating 
USGS digital data of deep ocean bathymetry
US Defense Mapping Agency digital data for land boundaries and topography, and
US National Hurricane Center storm data (HURDAT)

## The Army’s Commercial Infrastructure Network Disruption Analysis (CINDA) provides guidance for emergency planners  
CINDA derived estimates based on average outages plus 1.5 standard deviation from mean
CINDA could be improved with probabilistic (probability of event) based down-time estimates  
The CINDA approach could be used for critical infrastructure of Caribbean nations 

**Summary**

- The Army’s Commercial Infrastructure Network Disruption Analysis (CINDA) provides guidance for emergency planners
- CINDA derived estimates based on average outages plus 1.5 standard deviation from mean
- CINDA could be improved with probabilistic (probability of event) based down-time estimates
- The CINDA approach could be used for critical infrastructure of Caribbean nations