# Presentation: 945074

## Potential Contributions to the HMT from FSL(Stan Benjamin, Woody Roberts, John McGinley)

- Regional Modeling - Stan
- Local Modeling - John
- Workstations, Grid Manipulation, Product Display - Woody

## FSL WRF Rapid Refresh forecasts for HMT

**(following previous FSL/RUC experiments with PACJET)**

**GOALS**

-  Provide real-time model guidance from
- an advanced version of the WRF Rapid Refresh model – support field exercises
-  Assess forecast skill for advanced WRF Rapid Refresh
-  Evaluate forecast impact from new data sources including sat/GWINDEX winds

## Goals:

- Current RUC CONUS domain

- Planned Rapid Refresh domain

**Goals:**
- Hourly NWP
- update in
- - Alaska
-  Wider  E. Pacific
- - Canada
- - Caribbean Sea

- Rapid Refresh
- replace RUC – 2007
-  13km resolution
-  use WRF model

## Observations used in RUC/RR

**Data Type****	****      ****	****  ~Number   ****	****  Freq.****	**
**--------------------------------------------------**
**Rawinsonde ****	****	****        80****	****    /12h****	**
**NOAA profilers   ****	****        30               / 1h****	**
**VAD winds  ****	****	****    110-130        / 1h ****	**
**Aircraft  (V,temp)       1400-4500        / 1h****	**
**Surface/METAR          1500-1700        / 1h**
**Buoy/ship****	**** ****	****      100-150       / 1h**
**GOES precip water     1500-3000        / 1h**
**GOES cloud winds      1000-2500        / 1h**
**GOES cloud-top pres   10 km res        / 1h**
**SSM/I precip water    1000-4000       / 6h**
**--------------------------------------------------**
**GPS precip water****	****        ~300****	****     / 1h**
**Mesonet****	****	****       ~6000****	****     / 1h**
**PBL – prof/RASS****	****         ~25****	****     / 1h**
**METAR-cloud-vis-wx        ~1500****	****     / 1h**
**Radar / lightning****	****	****4km****	****     / 1h   - FSL only –**
**GOES/POES radiances****	****	****     / 1h – Rapid Refresh**
**	****	****	****	****	****	****    ****using GSI analysis**

**NCEP  RUC20**
**operational**

** ****RUC13**
**(at NCEP **
**May 2005)**

**Cloud**
**analysis**
**variables**

## Sample rapid-scan cloud-drift wind plot

## Data impact tests using GWINDEX 

-  - 25-28 March 2001 (real-time)
-  - 6-8 February 2001 (retrospective)
-  Compare forecasts using:
-  - all standard obs (CNTL)
-  - all standard obs + rapid-scan winds (GWIN)
-  1-h forecast cycle for both experiments
-  Verify 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-h forecasts against 35 sondes

- Data impact tests using GWINDEX
- cloud-drift wind observations

## 25-28 March 2001 (real-time)

- 6-8 February 2001 (retrospective)

## most obs over water

- 25-28 March 2001 (real-time)
- GWINDEX impact greater at +3h than +12h fcsts

- 6-8 February 2001 (retrospective)
- GWINDEX impact greater at +12h than +3h fcsts

- many obs over land

## Contribution of FSL RR experiments in HMT

-  Development of improved use of satellite data for short-range West Coast precipitation forecasting
-  Use of larger eastern Pacific domain with WRF-based Rapid Refresh (replacing RUC)
-  Fairly high resolution – 13km
-  Flexible test environment for new observations and new assimilation/modeling techniques (as with PACJET and NEHRT using RUC/WRFRUC)
-  Well-defined transfer path into operational NCEP forecasting via Rapid Refresh

## Local Modeling

- Global Relocatability
- Many Background Options
- Nesting Options
- Diabatic Initialization/ Short Range QPF Focus
- Ensemble Capability
- Workstation Compatibility
- Experienced with Support to Field Exercises – IHOP, MDSS, CSI/ DLM

## LAPS GUI – Global Locatibility

## Operational ApplicationsFor Space Launch Operations

- USAF Space Launch Facilities
- Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral
- LAPS and MM5
- 10, 3.3, 1.1 km nests
- Critical for launch and range safety weather forecasting
- Utilizes local towers, profilers, miniSODARs, etc.
- Operational “firsts”
- AWIPS Integration
- Linux cluster modeling

** **
** **
** **
** **

- Hot Start

- Cloud only
- Cold start

- 0-Hr

- 5 min forecast

- Clouds in initial condition – Cross-section
-                          First 5 minutes

## Window MM5 Forecast for Dominican Republic/ Haiti Flash Floods IT 00Z May 22, 2004

## TRMM Rainfall EstimatesMay 18-25, 2004 (NASA Goddard)

## From Ensembles, to Probabilities, to Yes/No Forecasts and Improved Analyses

- 5-D model grids
- (x,y,z,t,prob)

- Decision
- Engine

- Cost/Loss
- Thresholds

- Yes or No

- Ensemble

- Location,
- Time

- Customer

- Verifying
- Analyses

- B

- (error covariances)

## Local Modeling Goals for HMT

- Set up fine scale domain for desired drainage basin (WRF-NMM)- consider multi nest
- Utilize RUC background
- Assimilate Cloud and Precipitation data (Satellite and Radar)
- Provide 0-24 hr forecasts - WFO operations (on WFO AWIPS) or SOP/IOP support
- Verify forecasts utilizing standard and experimental observational networks
- Set up time-phased ensemble for basin area (FSL) - evaluate utility of probabilistic forecasts
- Adapt rainfall/ hydro configuration for WFO DLM

## Workstation Goals:

- Evaluate the efficacy and use of integrated advanced HMT datasets in a prototype AWIPS workstation            (Advanced Linux Prototype - ALPS) , using a distributed database model for accessing experimental data sets in real time.
- Examine the forecast process for generating high-resolution QPF grids using advanced data sets, and the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) on ALPS.
- Evaluate the quality of experimental QPF grid forecasts generated in real time, compared to operational products, to see whether improvements are made and what factors lead to an improved product.

## Advanced Linux Prototype - ALPS :

- Designed to greatly improve performance over current AWIPS system.
- Uses a distributed database model so experimental data sets can be integrated in real time along with traditional operational data sets
- The HMT will provide a venue to evaluate ALPS to determine which products and capabilities forecasters actually use to generate QPE and QPF during operational test periods.

## GFE Evaluation Results:

- Forecasters use a variety of methods to initialize their forecast girds either using “smart” model initialization or simply copying the previous forecast period.
- Simple drawing tools (e.g.pencil tool) are used extensively in complex terrain to resolve and refine forecast weather elements.
- “Smart tools” and techniques are have been  development but require much more refinement.

## Targeted GFE development areas and Evaluations for HMT:

- Improved model initialization (“Smart Init.”) of forecast weather element grids.
- Better techniques (“Smart tools”) needed for refinements of weather element forecasts in complex terrain.
- Better techniques needed for adjusting forecast girds in rapidly-evolving weather scenarios.
- HMT will provide an opportunity to generate experimental QPF grids in real time for evaluation.

## Summary

- Regional Modeling - Expanded RUC domain, real time forecasts, advanced data assimilation, validation
- Local Modeling - High resolution QPF, support for SOP/IOPs, ensemble applications, validation
- Workstation - ALPS assessment, GFE applications on QPF, validation of GFE QPF

## ESS & Bias Pcp, All Hrs, Jun03-Oct04

- ESS

- Bias

- ETA

- WRF - BG Only

- WRF- HS

## Surface Wind RMS Vector Error (m/s)0600 GMT forecasts - Jun03 to Jul 04

|         Forecast Hr

Model Config | 3 Hr | 6 Hr | 12 Hr | All Hrs |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Eta | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| Cold Start
WRF | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| Hot Start WRF | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 |

## WRF Run for Typhoon Mindulle using NCEP GFS/NF-15 backgrounds 

*Cold -GFS** *

*Hot - NFS*

*TS .60, .50,.38,.35,.26*

*TS .53, .51,.44,.29,.26*

## Skill scores in other areas for convective precipitation 0-24 hr

- 								1mm to 50mm
- IHOP- US Central Plains - 	ETS scores 	0.2 to 0.10
- CSI Project - Florida - 		ETS scores 	0.2 to 0.05
- Hurricane Bonnie - Florida - 	ETS scores 	0.3 to 0.05
- WGNE (Aus) Tropical Study - 	ETS scores 	0.3 to 0.05
- Mei-Yu Ensemble Study	- 	ETS scores 	0.2 to 0.05

## AWIPS Evaluation Results:

- 87% increase in product use in last 7 years -** *****performance is still an issue*****.**
- Base radar products (reflectivity and velocity) are still heavily relied on compared to derived radar products.
- Integrated capabilities is critical for operational forecasting. (ALPS can provide this.)