# Presentation: 024033

## INFORMED DECISIONS USING CENSUS AND SURVEY DATA

**Population and Demographic Trends**
**Urban Growth and Rural Transition**
**Economic, Consumer Spending and**
**	****Internet Trends**
**General Public Demand (NSRE) and Outdoor Recreation on Increasingly Urban NFs (NVUM)**
**Considering What the Public Values and Discussion**

**2004 Recreation Short Course Utah State University, Logan**

**March 9**

## INFORMED DECISIONS USING CENSUS AND SURVEY DATA

**Population and Demographic Trends**
**Urban Growth and Rural Transition**
**Economic, Consumer Spending and**
**	****Internet Trends**
**General Public Demand (NSRE) and**
**	****Outdoor Recreation on Increasingly**
**	****Urban NFs (NVUM)**
**Considering What the Public Values and**
**	****Discussion**

**2004 Recreation Short Course Utah State University, Logan**

**March 9**

**Ken Cordell, FS, Athens**
**John Bergstrom, UGA**
**Carter Betz, FS, Athens**
**Gary Green, UGA**

**www/srs.fs.fed.us/trends**

- Web Site

## Technical Guide for Integrating Recreation, Heritage and Wilderness into Land and Resource Management Planning

**Technical Guide for Integrating Recreation, Heritage and Wilderness into Land and Resource Management Planning**
**DRAFT**
**12/22/03**

## III. RHWR INTEGRATION IN LRMP REVISON (Planning Model)

- Introduction
- Demand
- Supply
- Developing Potential RHWR Niche (functional)
- Developing NFS Unit Vision (interdisciplinary)

## Primary Data

**NSRE – National Survey of Recreation and the Environment**
**NVUM – National Visitor Use Monitoring**
**INFRA – Physical Capital Assets**
**NRIS – Natural Resource Information System                               **
**Census – Demographics**
**Heritage****	**** **

**?**

## PRINCIPLES of GOOD RECREATION PLANNING

**Size, distribution, makeup and trends in local and regional populations define the **_**public context**_** within which your decisions resonate (or don’t)**
**Your **_**optimum client base**_** and most widely popular and beneficial offerings do not always match the wants of those standing at your door, and may not match wants of your current visitor base**
_**Complementing**_** the recreation services and facilities of other agencies and private businesses in your service area makes good sense and enhances economic growth**
**There are **_**equity**_** and other social issues associated with every decision you make and accounting for them is a responsibility of good planning**
_**Fragmented**_** (compartmentalized) **_**decision making**_** is easier, but not better**
**Good planning is **_**forward looking**_**, based on what could and should be, not necessarily what is or has been**

## PRINCIPLES of GOOD RECREATION PLANNING

**Size, distribution, makeup and trends in local and regional populations define the **_**public context**_** within which your decisions resonate (or don’t)**
**Your **_**optimum client base**_** and most widely popular and beneficial offerings do not always match the wants of those standing at your door, and may not match the wants of your current visitor base**
_**Complementing**_** the recreation services and facilities of other agencies and private businesses in your service area makes good sense and enhances economic growth**
**There are **_**equity**_** and other social issues associated with every decision you make and accounting for them is a responsibility of good planning**
_**Fragmented**_** (compartmentalized) **_**decision making**_** is easier, but not better**
**Good planning is **_**forward looking**_**, based on what could and should be, not necessarily what is or has been**

## PRINCIPLES of GOOD RECREATION PLANNING

**Size, distribution, makeup and trends in local and regional populations define the **_**public context**_** within which your decisions resonate (or don’t)**
**Your **_**optimum client base**_** and most widely popular and beneficial offerings do not always match the wants of those standing at your door, and may not match wants of your current visitor base**
_**Complementing**_** the recreation services and facilities of other agencies and private businesses in your service area makes good sense and enhances economic growth**
**There are **_**equity**_** and other social issues associated with every decision you make and accounting for them is a responsibility of good planning**
_**Fragmented**_** (compartmentalized) **_**decision making**_** is easier, but not better**
**Good planning is **_**forward looking**_**, based on what could and should be, not necessarily what is or has been**

## PRINCIPLES of GOOD RECREATION PLANNING

**Size, distribution, makeup and trends in local and regional populations define the **_**public context**_** within which your decisions resonate (or don’t)**
**Your **_**optimum client base**_** and most widely popular and beneficial offerings do not always match the wants of those standing at your door, and may not match wants of your current visitor base**
_**Complementing**_** the recreation services and facilities of other agencies and private businesses in your service area makes good sense and enhances economic growth**
**There are **_**equity**_** and other social issues associated with every decision you make and accounting for them is a responsibility of good planning**
_**Fragmented**_** (compartmentalized) **_**decision making**_** is easier, but not better**
**Good planning is **_**forward looking**_**, based on what could and should be, not necessarily what is or has been**

## PRINCIPLES of GOOD RECREATION PLANNING

**Size, distribution, makeup and trends in local and regional populations define the **_**public context**_** within which your decisions resonate (or don’t)**
**Your **_**optimum client base**_** and most widely popular and beneficial offerings do not always match the wants of those standing at your door, and may not match wants of your current visitor base**
_**Complementing**_** the recreation services and facilities of other agencies and private businesses in your service area makes good sense and enhances economic growth**
**There are **_**equity**_** and other social issues associated with every decision you make and accounting for them is a responsibility of good planning**
_**Fragmented**_** (compartmentalized) **_**decision making**_** is easier, but not better**
**Good planning is **_**forward looking**_**, based on what could and should be, not necessarily what is or has been**

## PRINCIPLES of GOOD RECREATION PLANNING

**Size, distribution, makeup and trends in local and regional populations define the **_**public context**_** within which your decisions resonate (or don’t)**
**Your **_**optimum client base**_** and most widely popular and beneficial offerings do not always match the wants of those standing at your door, and may not match wants of your current visitor base**
_**Complementing**_** the recreation services and facilities of other agencies and private businesses in your service area makes good sense and enhances economic growth**
**There are **_**equity**_** and other social issues associated with every decision you make and accounting for them is a responsibility of good planning**
_**Fragmented**_** (compartmentalized) **_**decision making**_** is easier, but not better**
**Good planning is **_**forward looking**_**, based on what could and should be, not necessarily what is or has been**

## INFORMED DECISIONS USING CENSUS AND SURVEY DATA

**Population and Demographic Trends**
**Urban Growth and Rural Transition**
**Economic, Consumer Spending and Internet Trends**
**General Public Demand (NSRE) and Outdoor Recreation on Increasingly Urban NFs (NVUM)**
**Considering What the Public Values and Discussion**

## DEMOGRAPHIC DATA SOURCE

- This published book examined the population, demographic, urban, rural, economic, leisure and recreation trends of the United States. An update is underway.

- ***********

- *******

**DEMOGRAPHIC DATA SOURCE**

## Dominant Socioeconomic Forces Shaping the Future of the United States: An Update of Footprints

**By**
**H. Ken Cordell****1****, John C. Bergstrom****2****, Carter J. Betz****1****, and Gary T. Green****2**
***Introduction***
**This chapter is devoted to providing up-to-date summaries of a number of highly important social and economic trends that will play a role in the future of the United States and its natural resources. The trend topics covered include population growth, changing composition of the population, urban growth and sprawl, transition of rural lands, economic growth, consumer spending, and recreation demands. This chapter is essentially an abbreviated update of the book *****Footprints on the Land***** (Cordell & Overdevest, 2001). It is undertaken ........**

- 	1Project Leader and Outdoor Recreation Planner respectively, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Athens, GA.
- 	2Respectively, Professor, Agriculture & Applied Economics, and Assistant Research Scientist, Warnell School of Forest Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA.

**Update Coming soon in a book to be published through the ISSRM**

## Slide 15

## Including Undocumented (Est.)

## Historical and Projected Population in the U.S.

## Historic and Projected Population by Ethnicity

**Historic and Projected Population by Ethnicity**

## Life Expectancy

**Life Expectancy**

## INFORMED DECISIONS WITH SOCIAL AND RECREATION DATA

**Population and Demographic Trends**
**Urban Growth and Rural Transition**
**Economic, Consumer Spending and Internet Trends**
**General Public Demand (NSRE) and Outdoor Recreation on Increasingly Urban NFs (NVUM)**
**Considering What the Public Values and Discussion**

## Description of the Area Within 1⁄2 Mile of Where People Live 

| 
Description of Area | U.S. 

(n=4988) | North 

(n=2098) | South                       

(n=1342) | Rocky Mtns. 
(n=932) | Pacific Coast 
(n=616) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Established downtown area | 9.2 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 9.6 |
| Established older residential area near downtown | 24.9 | 26.5 | 20.7 | 22.0 | 31.2 |
| Established newer residential area | 14.5 | 14.3 | 13.9 | 17.9 | 12.7 |
| Newly developing area where building is active | 9.9 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.0 |
| New residential mixed with existing rural houses and farms | 16.9 | 17.9 | 17.6 | 15.3 | 14.7 |
| Rural area with little new development | 21.1 | 20.0 | 24.1 | 21.4 | 18.3 |
| Don’t know | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.00 |

**Description of the Area Within 1⁄2 Mile of Where People Live **

-   (Percent of Population)

## Slide 22

## Slide 23

## 26 Million Acres 1982 to 1997

**26 Million Acres 1982 to 1997**

## NC, GA, FL

**NC, GA, FL**

## MI, OH, PA

**MI, OH, PA**

## CA, TX

**CA, TX**

## GROWTH HOTSPOTS

**GROWTH HOTSPOTS**

## INFORMED DECISIONS USING CENSUS AND SURVEY DATA

**Population and Demographic Trends**
**Urban Growth and Rural Transition**
**Economic, Consumer Spending and Internet Trends**
**General Public Demand (NSRE) and Outdoor Recreation on Increasingly Urban NFs (NVUM)**
**Considering What the Public Values and Discussion**

## Slide 30

## Slide 31

## Slide 32

## ARPANET, known today as the Internet, was brought online in December 1969, when it initially connected four major computers at universities in the southwestern US (UCLA, Stanford Research Institute, UCSB, and the University of Utah). By January 1971, MIT, Harvard, BBN, Systems Development Corp, Stanford, MIT's Lincoln Labs, Carnegie-Mellon, and Case-Western Reserve University were added. 

**ARPANET, known today as the Internet, was brought online in December 1969, when it initially connected four major computers at universities in the southwestern US (UCLA, Stanford Research Institute, UCSB, and the University of Utah). By January 1971, MIT, Harvard, BBN, Systems Development Corp, Stanford, MIT's Lincoln Labs, Carnegie-Mellon, and Case-Western Reserve University were added. **

## FROM THAT SMALL BEGINNING, ...........

**From that small beginning in 1969, and then growing to just a few hundred users as of 1971**
**December 1995****	****	**** 16  million**
**November 1997****	****	**** 76  million**
**August  1999****	****	****195 million**
**August 2000****	****	****369 million**
**August 2001****	****	****513 million**

**Web Sites in 95  (25,000)   Web Sites in 2001 (28,200,000)**

## NUMBER OF USERS AS OF 9-22-02

|  |
| --- |

| World Total | 605.60 million |
| --- | --- |
| Africa | 6.31 million |
| Asia/Pacific | 187.24 million |
| Europe | 190.91 million |
| Middle East | 5.12 million |
| Canada & USA | 182.67 million |
| Latin America | 33.35 million |

**NUMBER OF USERS AS OF 9-22-02**

- http://www.nua.com/surveys/how_many_online/

## New! The free Google Toolbar blocks pop-ups. Search from anywhere!Advertise with Us - Business Solutions - Services & Tools - Jobs, Press, & Help 

|   | Web |   | Images |   | Groups |   | Directory |   | News |   |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|    |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |

|   |  |  • Advanced Search • Preferences • Language Tools |
| --- | --- | --- |

- New! The free Google Toolbar blocks pop-ups. Search from anywhere!Advertise with Us - Business Solutions - Services & Tools - Jobs, Press, & Help
- Make Google Your Homepage!
- ©2003 Google - Searching 3,307,998,701 web pages

## INFORMED DECISIONS USING SOCIAL AND RECREATION DATA

**Population and Demographic Trends**
**Urban Growth and Rural Transition**
**Economic, Consumer Spending and Internet Trends**
**General Public Demand (NSRE) and Outdoor Recreation on Increasingly Urban NFs (NVUM)**
**Considering What the Public Values and Discussion**

## The first major national assessment in the United States—The Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission (1960)

***The first major national assessment in the United States—The Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission (1960)***

## The last of the Nationwide Recreation Surveys was conducted by the Park Service in 1982-83. Previous ones had been conducted by BOR and HCRS in 1965, 1972, and 1977.

***The last of the Nationwide Recreation Surveys was conducted by the Park Service in 1982-83. Previous ones had been conducted by BOR and HCRS in 1965, 1972, and 1977******.***

## NSRE

_***NSRE***_

***NATIONAL SURVEY ON RECREATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT***
***SINCE 1960***
_***THE UNITED STATES’ ON-GOING NATIONAL RECREATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL SURVEY***_

## NSRE

**A sample of over 85,000+ households, from the Keys to**** the Artic National Wildlife Refuge**
**Forest Service Research manages the survey**
**Includes non-institutionalized individuals 16 or older**
**Is the Nation’s on-going recreation and environmental survey, the 8****th**** coming next year**
**Interagency sponsorship—USFS, NOAA, CDC, ERS, EPA,**** ****NPS, BLM.**
**Others involved, NFs in the South, National Scenic**** ****Byways, Heritage, Wilderness, Numerous State**** Agencies, Bicycle Safety, Campaign for America’s Wilderness, NRCS, Montreal Process, .....**

## Outdoor Recreation in American Life

_***Outdoor Recreation in American Life***_

**The United States‘ on-going, compre-hensive assessment of the trends, current situation, and likely future of outdoor recreation demand and supply.**

**(1999)**

## Spring 2004

**Spring 2004**

## Outdoor Recreation for 21st Century America--Contents

**Foreword--Geoff Godbey**
**Acknowledgements**
**Introduction**
**I.  History**
**II. Trends**
**.****	****Long-term Trends–Last 40 Years (1960 to 2000-01)**
**.****	****Recent Trends–Last 20 Years (1982-83 to 2000-01)**
**.****	****Current Trends–Last Few Years (1994-95 to 2000-01)**
**.****	****Trends Before and After 9/11/2001**
**III. Participation in Activities**
**Participation in Land, Water and Snow/Ice Activities**
**Participation in Viewing/Learning/Gathering Activities**
**Participation in Outdoor Sports**

**IV. Participation by Setting**
**Forest recreation**
**Farm recreation**
**Marine recreation**
**Freshwater recreation**
**Urban outdoor recreation**
**V. Participation Comparisons**
**Differences in Participation Among Population Groups**
**Comparisons by Region and State**
**Comparisons by Outdoor Personality**
**The Enthusiasts**
**General format for Chapters**
**Introduction**
**Highlights (emphasizes graphics)**
**Main sections (emphasizes tables)**
**Literature Cited**

## LONG-TERM

_***LONG-TERM***_
_*** ***__***TRENDS***_

**Mike Butkus’ new boat!**

## LONG TERM TRENDS SINCE 1960

_**LONG TERM TRENDS SINCE 1960**_

## RECENT  TRENDS

_***RECENT  TRENDS***_

## Ten Most Popular Activities in 2001 and in 1994-95

| 

Activities | Percent of Population 16+ Participating in 2000-01 | Rank Order of Popularity 1994-95 | Percent of Population in 1994-95 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Walking for pleasure | 83.1 | 1 | 66.7 |
| Family gatherings | 73.6 | 3 | 61.8 |
| Visiting a beach | 60.7 | 2 | 62.1 |
| Visiting nature centers | 57.4 | 8 | 46.5 |
| Picnicking | 54.7 | 5 | 49.1 |
| Sightseeing | 52.1 | 4 | 56.6 |
| Attending outdoor sports events | 49.9 | 7 | 47.5 |
| Visiting historic sites | 46.3 | 9 | 44.1 |
| Viewing wildlife | 44.7 | ** | 31.2 |
| Swimming in lakes, streams, etc. | 42.1 | 10 | 39.0 |

**** Pool swimming was number 6 in 1994-95, but has since been replaced by viewing wildlife as one of the top 10 in 2000-01.**

**Ten Most Popular Activities in 2001 and in 1994-95**

## Activity Growth in order of Added Number Participating

**Family gathering**
**View wildlife**
**Visit nature centers**
**Bicycling**
**View/photograph fish**
**Day hiking**
**Running or jogging**
**Picnicking**
**Attend outdoor concerts, etc.**
**View birds**
**Developed camping**
**Swimming in natural waters**
**Attend outdoor sports events**
**Visit historic sites**

**Snowmobiling**
**Kayaking**
**Ice skating outdoors**
**Mountain climbing**
**Big game hunting**
**Saltwater fishing**
**Small game hunting**
**Rock climbing**
**Downhill skiing**
**Cross country skiing**
**Sailing**
**Snorkeling or scuba diving**
**Rowing**
**Migratory bird hunting**
**Surfing**
**Pool swimming**
**Anadromous fishing**
**Caving**

_**GREATEST GROWTH**_

_**LEAST GROWTH**_

**Sledding**
**Jet skiing**
**Visit arch. sites**
**Drive off-road**
**Coldwater fishing**
**Warmwater fishing**
**Soccer outdoors**
**Backpacking**
**Visit beach or waterside**
**Horseback riding**
**Canoeing**
**Primitive camping**
**Motorboating**
**Snowboarding**
**Whitewater Rafting**

_**MODERATE**_

_**Activity Growth in order of Added Number Participating**_

## Activity Growth in order of Added Number Participating

**Family gathering**
**View wildlife**
**Visit nature centers**
**Bicycling**
**View/photograph fish**
**Day hiking**
**Running or jogging**
**Picnicking**
**Attend outdoor concerts, etc.**
**View birds**
**Developed camping**
**Swimming in natural waters**
**Attend outdoor sports events**
**Visit historic sites**

**Snowmobiling**
**Kayaking**
**Ice skating outdoors**
**Mountain climbing**
**Big game hunting**
**Saltwater fishing**
**Small game hunting**
**Rock climbing**
**Downhill skiing**
**Cross country skiing**
**Sailing**
**Snorkeling or scuba diving**
**Rowing**
**Migratory bird hunting**
**Surfing**
**Pool swimming**
**Anadromous fishing**
**Caving**

_**GREATEST GROWTH**_

_**LEAST GROWTH**_

**Sledding**
**Jet skiing**
**Visit arch. sites**
**Drive off-road**
**Coldwater fishing**
**Warmwater fishing**
**Soccer outdoors**
**Backpacking**
**Visit beach or waterside**
**Horseback riding**
**Canoeing**
**Primitive camping**
**Motorboating**
**Snowboarding**
**Whitewater Rafting**

_**MODERATE**_

_**Activity Growth in order of Added Number Participating**_

## Activity Growth in order of Added Number Participating

**Family gathering**
**View wildlife**
**Visit nature centers**
**Bicycling**
**View/photograph fish**
**Day hiking**
**Running or jogging**
**Picnicking**
**Attend outdoor concerts, etc.**
**View birds**
**Developed camping**
**Swimming in natural waters**
**Attend outdoor sports events**
**Visit historic sites**

**Snowmobiling**
**Kayaking**
**Ice skating outdoors**
**Mountain climbing**
**Big game hunting**
**Saltwater fishing**
**Small game hunting**
**Rock climbing**
**Downhill skiing**
**Cross country skiing**
**Sailing**
**Snorkeling or scuba diving**
**Rowing**
**Migratory bird hunting**
**Surfing**
**Pool swimming**
**Anadromous fishing**
**Caving**

_**GREATEST GROWTH**_

_**LEAST GROWTH**_

**Sledding**
**Jet skiing**
**Visit arch. sites**
**Drive off-road**
**Coldwater fishing**
**Warmwater fishing**
**Soccer outdoors**
**Backpacking**
**Visit beach or waterside**
**Horseback riding**
**Canoeing**
**Primitive camping**
**Motorboating**
**Snowboarding**
**Whitewater Rafting**

_**MODERATE**_

_**Activity Growth in order of Added Number Participating**_

## Slide 52

## Percentage of National Forest Visits by Duration for Selected Urban National Forests

**Percentage of National Forest Visits by Duration for Selected Urban National Forests**

**Source: NVUM**

## Percent of UNF Visits by Persons Living Within 50 Miles of the Forest

**Percent of UNF Visits by Persons Living Within 50 Miles of the Forest**

**Source: NVUM**

## Percent of NF Visits by Primary Activity for Urban National Forests

**Percent of NF Visits by Primary Activity for Urban National Forests**

**Source: NVUM**

## Minority Status and Gender of Visitors to Urban National Forests (NVUM data)

| Forest | Hispanic | Asian | Native American |  | African American | Male |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Percent of National Forest visits |  |  |  |  |  |
| Angeles | 13.8 | 4.6 |  | 1.2 | 1.6 | 81.0 |
| Arapaho Roosevelt | 2.1 | 0.1 |  | 0.2 | 0.3 | 69.0 |
| Cibola | 12.1 | 0.5 |  | 2.5 | 0.4 | 65.0 |
| Cleveland | 12.8 | 8.8 |  | 2.3 | 0.3 | 76.8 |
| Florida | 2.1 | 0.9 |  | 0.0 | 6.0 | 74.3 |
| Gifford Pinchot | 0.1 | 1.1 |  | 0.4 | 0.8 | 66.6 |
| Los Padres | 22.9 | 0.3 |  | 1.7 | 0.1 | 72.1 |
| Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie | 2.5 | 5.7 |  | 0.5 | 1.3 | 63.3 |
| Pike-San Isabel | 2.8 | 0.4 |  | 0.3 | 0.5 | 66.9 |
| Tonto | 6.0 | 0.3 |  | 1.4 | 1.0 | 74.7 |
| Uinta | 2.8 | 1.0 |  | 0.7 | 0.1 | 72.7 |
| White Mountain | 0.1 | 1.8 |  | 1.4 | 1.5 | 65.5 |

**Minority Status and Gender of Visitors to Urban National Forests (NVUM data)**

## Future Public Natural Land Hotspots (2020)

**Future Public Natural Land Hotspots (2020)**
**Ambient Population Pressures on Counties with Public Natural Lands**

## INFORMED DECISIONS USING SOCIAL AND RECREATION DATA

**Population and Demographic Trends**
**Urban Growth and Rural Transition**
**Economic, Consumer Spending and Internet Trends**
**General Public Demand (NSRE) and Outdoor Recreation on Increasingly  Urban NFs (NVUM)**
**Considering What the Public Values**
**Summary and Discussion**

## Who Is That “Public” We So Often Refer To??**********************

**Who Is That “Public” We So Often Refer To??****************************

_**The public**_** ranges from the population at large, to local communities to special interests**
**The highest level is the **_**public at large**_**. For federal lands, that means the national population.**** (****National Forests are **_**first**_** a National resource, **_**second**_** a regional or local resource, and **_**last**_** a special use resource (Remember?, “the greatest good for the greatest number in the long run”))**
**The next level includes **_**regional and local communities.**_** (T****hese are communities of place who have interest, usually economic, because of nearness to public lands)**
**The third level includes a variety of **_**special interests**_**.**** ****(These are not place bound (they may include wilderness, motorized recreation or commercial interests)**

## WHAT DOES THE UNITED STATES’ PUBLIC VALUE IN OUR PUBLIC LANDS??

**Provide permits to ranchers for ****grazing of livestock**** such as cattle and sheep**
**Maintain public lands for ****future generations**** to use and enjoy**
**Provide access, facilities and services for ****outdoor recreation**
**Provide ****quiet, natural places**** for personal renewal**
**Use and manage public areas in ways that leave them ****natural in appearance**
**Emphasize planting/management of trees for ****abundant timber**** supply**
**Provide access to ****raw materials**** and products for local industries and communities**
**Protect streams and other sources of ****clean water**
**Protect ****rare, unique or endangered**** plant and animal species**
**Provide roads, accommodations and services to help local ****tourism**** businesses**
**Provide information and ****educational services**** about natural areas, their management and the natural life in them****	**

## Protect streams and other sources of clean water

**Protect streams and other sources of clean water**
**	**
**Not at all****	****	****	****	****   Extremely**
**important****	****	****	****	****   important**
**1****	****	****2****	****	****3****	****	****4****	****	****5**
**	****	****	****	****8   Don't know**
**	****	****	****	****9   Refused**

## VALUE DIMENSION 1: MANAGE FOR PROTECTION

**Protect streams and other sources of clean water**
**Provide habitat and protection for abundant wildlife and fish**
**Protect rare, unique or endangered plant and animal species**
**(Average Score 74.0)**

## VALUE DIMENSION 2:MANAGE FOR AMENITIES

**Maintain public lands for future generations to use and enjoy**
**Provide quiet, natural places for personal renewal**
**Use and manage forest areas in ways that leave them natural in appearance**
**Provide information and educational services about public lands, their management and the natural life in them**
**(Average Score = 61.6)****	**

## VALUE DIMENSION 3:

**Emphasize planting and management of trees for an abundant timber supply**
**Provide access to raw materials and products for local industries and communities**
**Provide roads, accommodations and services to help local tourism businesses**
**Provide permits to ranchers for grazing of livestock such as cattle and sheep**
**(Average Score = 38.1)**

**VALUE DIMENSION 3:**
_**MANAGE FOR OUTPUTS**_

## WHAT OBJECTIVES DOES THE PUBLIC WANT EMPHASIZED IN THE MANAGEMENT OF NATIONAL FORESTS?

**WHAT OBJECTIVES DOES THE PUBLIC WANT EMPHASIZED IN THE MANAGEMENT OF NATIONAL FORESTS?**

## Objectives for Managing National Forests

**(Percent in Nation saying important or very important)**

## INFORMED DECISIONS USING SOCIAL AND RECREATION DATA

**Population and Demographic Trends**
**Urban Growth and Rural Transition**
**Economic, Consumer Spending and Internet Trends**
**General Public Demand (NSRE) and Outdoor Recreation on Increasingly  Urban NFs (NVUM)**
**Considering What the Public Values**
**Summary and Discussion**

## SUMMARY POINTS

**Population is growing**** as birth rates override death rates, expected life spans lengthen, and immigration accelerates**
**Population projected to more than ****double by 2100**
**Growth in all regions, all states, ****almost all urban areas**
**Urban growth is rapidly ****reaching into rural lands**** where our natural resources are located, including both public and private natural lands and water**
**Usually amenity driven, ****rural land development**** and settlement makes neighbors of urban workers, national forests and other public lands---often close neighbors**
**In response, outdoor recreation in the U.S. has been ****persistently growing**** over the last several decades**

## SUMMARY POINTS (Cont.)

**Urban growth patterns are ****not likely to subside-****--remember our “footprints” work and predictions of hotspots???**

**Between 1982 and  1997, almost 27 million acres of ****rural land were converted**** to development, reducing the rural recreation resource, moving people closer to NFs, etc.  Increasingly our visitors are ex-urban or ****non-traditional rural**

**% Local**

**Length of Stay**

**Stays are ****short**

## Slide 70

## The Problem with Future Supply

**Accommodating future growth in recreation demands ****will likely fall heavily on public properties**** and providers**
**For federal properties, management of ecosystems and recreation are higher priorities, but ****funding is not coming**** with those priorities**
**State lands, especially state parks, are ****reaching maturity****, except for high-end development**
**Private landowners are continuing to ****close more land**
**	****	****	****	****      **_**Landowner Intentions**_
**	****	****	****	****      **_**National**_**	****          **_**South**_
**	****	****open more****	****     ****	**** 5%****	****	****   4%**
**	****	****same****	****	****	****88%****	****	**** 91%****	**
**	****   ****	****less****	****	****  ****	****  7%****	****	****   5%**

## Conflicts Among Different Recreation Users Are Likely to Grow

**Increasing demands for climbing, off-road vehicle use, hiking, horseback riding, motorized land use, wildlife viewing, tourism services, etc., etc., are likely to create ****more competition and conflicts**** for public properties,  and  for private owners.**
**Broad spectrum of ****activities likely to be in conflict**** as demands grow for water access, trails, backcountry, developed sites, and roads.**
**There is a tendency for one group (typically traditional and non-mechanized) to ****perceive much more conflict**** than others (non-traditional and mechanized).**

## IDEAS????

| 

Activities | Percent of Population 16+ Participating in 2000-01 | Rank Order of Popularity 1994-95 | Percent of Population in 1994-95 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Walking for pleasure | 83.1 | 1 | 66.7 |
| Family gatherings | 73.6 | 3 | 61.8 |
| Visiting a beach | 60.7 | 2 | 62.1 |
| Visiting nature centers | 57.4 | 8 | 46.5 |
| Picnicking | 54.7 | 5 | 49.1 |
| Sightseeing | 52.1 | 4 | 56.6 |
| Attending outdoor sports events | 49.9 | 7 | 47.5 |
| Visiting historic sites | 46.3 | 9 | 44.1 |
| Viewing wildlife | 44.7 | ** | 31.2 |
| Swimming in lakes, streams, etc. | 42.1 | 10 | 39.0 |

**Most of the more popular activities do not require a lot of investment nor intensive management.  So???**

**From humble beginnings, the INTERNET has grown to one of  THE primary communications tool**
**December 1995****	**** 16  million**
**November 1997****	**** 76  million**
**August  1999****	****195 million**
**August 2000****	****369 million**
**August 2001****	****513 million**
**September 2002****	****606 million**

**Most of the folks moving into rural areas are on the internet. Influence through info. and messaging (segmentation). Maybe????**

**Can we figure out how to better work with the CDC, states, local P&R departments, etc. to effectively help meet growing demands????**

## DECISION SYSTEM

**A STEP by STEP APPROACH TO MAKING SENSE OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND DEMAND DATA**

**One that accumulates the information**

## THE STEPS

**Examine ****population change**** in the region and in your market area (1 1⁄2 to 2-hour drive)**
**Summarize overall ****outdoor recreation participation****, i.e., the “big picture”**
**Examine of ****highest growth activities**
**See if participation differs by ****demographic group**** & identify expected demographic shifts**
**Identify ****activities likely to be most in demand**** on your forest or area, including current visitors **
**Sum up the direction given you by your ****population and demand data**

## THE 10 STEPS CONTINUED

**7.****	****Identify ****niche activities**** that surround special settings or resources (uniquely suited markets)**
**Identify who will and ****who**** will not be served by the results of your decisions ****(Title 6)**
**Overview ****other suppliers**** and what they offer in your market area**
**Study end results, review public values and ****identify concerns**** needing follow-up and more analysis**

_**A Note**_**: The analysis for individual NFs should also be performed at the regional level to identify Forests with the greatest demand pressures in the Region**

_**_______________________________________________________**_

**We have applied this procedure across all the NFs in the South. Provided a 165-Page Report with 115 pages of ****tables and charts to each forest. Included in National**** ****Tech Guide****.**

## GEORGE WASHINGTON NF

_**GEORGE WASHINGTON NF**_

## www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends

**Population and Demographic Trends**
**Urban Growth and Rural Transition**
**Economic, Consumer Spending and**
**	****Internet Trends**
**General Public Demand (NSRE) and Outdoor Recreation on Increasingly Urban NFs (NVUM)**
**Considering What the Public Values and Discussion**

***www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends***

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