# Presentation: 674204

## Fiscal Year Trade Forecasts
for U.S. Agricultural Products

**for U.S. Agricultural Products**

- USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
- Released on May 29, 2008, 4pm EST
- Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS

- Summaries on all groups except tobacco, planting seeds, and sugar & tropical products

-   _Changes in 2008 Forecast Since February_AgExports rise $7.5 billion to record $108.5 billionAgImports rise $2 billion to record $78.5 billionAgSurplus reaches record $30.0 billion

## U.S. Agricultural Trade

**U.S. Agricultural Trade**

***Exports***

***Imports***

***Trade Surplus******   ***

- Higher prices for grains & soybeans and larger grain volumes drive half of the export gain in 2008.  Import growth continues at faster pace.

- Record

**78.5**

**11.9**

**81.9**

**70.0**

**108.5**

**30**

## FY’08 Exports Revised Since February   AgExports Up $7.5 Billion to Record $108.5 Billion                Major Bulk Commodity Volume Up 2.6 mmt to Record 138.4 mmt

- Grains & Feeds       $2.6 billion to record $35.3 billion
-  wheat (+) $500 million – higher prices offsets some vol reduction
-  animal feeds: corn (+) $500 million – (+) 1 mmt with no competition and (+) prices anticipating tighter US mkt; feeds/fodders – (+) $ 650 mil on (+) vol for DDGs
-  rice (+) $600 – export unit value jumps to $590/ton and some vol increase
- Animal Products       $2.5 billion to record $20.5 billion
-  dairy prods (+) $1.1 bil – (+) vols, esp. NFDM, on strong demand & NZ drought
-  pork (+) $475 mil – (+) 200,000 mt mainly on strong China demand
- Oilseeds and Products       $1.8 billion to record $20.7 billion
-  soybeans (+) $1.3 bil – (+) 2.3 mmt and unit values on extended late-season sales
- Horticultural Products       $800 million to record $20.5 billion
-  fruits/vegs/tree nuts (+) 600 million – good supplies, strong demand, weak dollar
- Cotton       $500 million but still a record 5.1 billion
-  volume lowered 300,000 mt on technical adjustment to China stocks and import demand
*Major Bulk Commodity Export Vol*       2.6 mil. tons to record 138.4 mil. tons
-  volume is up 13.7 mmt from 2007 and 2 mmt above previous record set in 1980
-  largest annual increases: corn +8.9 mmt, sorghum +2.6 mmt, wheat +1.8 mmt

**FY’08 Exports Revised Since February   *****AgExports Up $7.5 Billion to Record $108.5 Billion                Major Bulk Commodity Volume Up 2.6 mmt to Record 138.4 mmt***

## Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

- Includes corn gluten feed/meal

*Record*

- Revised 2008 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Higher wheat prices add $500 mil
-  Corn and feeds & fodders rise $1.1 billion on higher prices and vol gains
-  Record rice prices add $600 million

**Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products**

- Revised FY 2008 Forecast:     $2.6 Billion to $35.3 Billion

## Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

**Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products**

- Excludes corn gluten feed/meal

*Record*

- Revised 2008 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Soybeans up 1.3 billion – extended late-season sales raise average unit prices and boost vol
-  Soyoil vol raised supported by strong demand

- Revised FY 2008 Forecast:     $1.8 Billion to $20.7 Billion

## Export Outlook for Cotton

_*Note*_
- FY ’07 and prior years based on Census data; FY ‘08 forecast based on WASDE MY forecasts

*Record*

**Export Outlook for Cotton**

- Revised 2008 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Export vol lowered 300,000 mt to 3.1 mmt largely due to revised estimates for China’s stocks and import demand
-  Volatility in US futures market impacts sales opportunities
-  Higher transport costs makes US cotton less competitive in China

- Revised FY 2008 Forecast:     $500 Million to $5.1 Billion

## Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry

*Record*

**Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry**

- Revised 2008 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Dairy exports raised $1.1 bil to record $3.7 bil.  Strong demand & drought in NZealand & Aust. keep US export vols higher & slow fall from record 2007 prices.  Dairy trade surplus (first since 1993) of $500 mil forecast w/o export subsidies
-  Pork vol +200,000 to 1.4 mmt due to China/Hong Kong increases

- Revised FY 2008 Forecast:     $2.5 Billion to $20.5 Billion

## Export Outlook for Horticultural Products

**Export Outlook for Horticultural Products**

- Revised FY 2008 Forecast:     $800 Million to $20.5 Billion

- Revised 2008 Forecast
*Key Developments*
-  Adequate supplies, strong demand & weak dollar boost fresh and processed fruit & veg, and tree nut exports beyond expectations
-  Exceptional sales to Canada, EU, and emerging markets
-  Record almond crop supports record shipments; export value up despite weaker prices

*Record*

## AgImports                                                        Continue Four Decades of Expansion

*Demand & supply factors at work in a relatively open market*
-  Demand:  consumer preferences (variety, luxury, ethnic foods); population growth (2.7 million/year); high disposable income
-  Supply:  capital flows build foreign capacity; technology transfer; supply chains increasingly global; production costs (lower wages favor labor-intensive crops)
*FY 2008 import values for products driving most long-term growth*
-  Horticultural products $34.8 billion (fruit & vegs $17.5 bil, wine & beer $8.5 bil)
-  Snack foods $5.2 bil, beef & pork $4.2 bil, vegoils $4.5 bil, dairy products $3.2 bil
*Key observations for FY 2008 – imports rise $6 bil to record $76 bil*
-  Import volume growth slows slightly with weaker dollar and consumer spending, but higher prices keep value growing near the faster pace seen in the past 5 years
-  Grains, oilseeds & products add $4 billion in 2008, mostly due to higher prices, but some vol increase too (this compares to $300 million additional sales in 2005)
-  Tropical products (natural rubber, coffee & other products) continue to grow above trend with strong global demand and record to near-record prices

**AgImports                                                        Continue Four Decades of Expansion**

## Top Ag Markets and Ag Suppliers

**Top Ag Markets and Ag Suppliers**

***Top Ag Markets...                   Top Ag Suppliers...***