# Presentation: 035545

## solutions for the 21st

- century

- safeguarding our future

## Surety Science & Engineering

- Provides Reliability, Safety, and
- Security to our Future

**Surety is...**
**	**
**     ****Reliability**
**           ****in n****ormal environments****	**
**	****  ****Safety**
**	****     ****in abnormal environments**
**	**
**	****             ****Security & Use Control**
**	****                 ****in malevolent environments**

## Our Increasingly Complex World

**The 50-year history in **
**developing and applying surety principles has provided the nation with a nuclear weapons program that has never**
** ****experienced the unthinkable—an accidental nuclear detonation. **
**The very same surety science and engineering principles are being used to address national problems and safeguard Americans. **
**The same systematic approach that incorporates modeling and simulation, testing and **
**evaluation, risk management, reliability development, and physical security can also **
**safeguard Americans in the **
**way they live and work, and as they move into the progressively complex future.**

**Ever**
**Growing**
**Complexity**

- Demands Surety

- Failure in this increasingly complex world has escalating consequences.

## Surety Science and Engineering:

**Until the advent of nuclear, **
**biological, and chemical weapons, and other high- **
**consequence events,**
**we were satisfied to understand**
**why and how things worked. **

**To prevent catastrophes, now we must go further and understand why and how things fail—so that things are sure to work.**

**• ****Human Intent**
**• ****Accidents**
**• ****Acts of Nature**

**• ****All other Science Laws or Events**
**• ****All other Engineering**
**• ****All other Results**

**Science Law**
** ****or Events**

**Desired**
**Results**

**(A)**

**(C)**

- So That Things are Sure to Work

## Partnerships will Provide Surety

**• ****Managing the increasing complexity of ****	****   **
**   ****interdependent systems**
**• ****Safe, secure, and reliable energy**
**• ****Reliable infrastructures**
**• ****No accidental nuclear detonations**
**• ****Countering physical and cyber terrorism**
**• ****Countering chemical or biological weapons**
**• ****Countering crime**
**• ****Safe and secure schools**
**• ****Solutions for aviation safety and security**
**• ****A credible nuclear deterrent**
**• ****Solutions for aging infrastructure**
**• ****Solutions for an aging nuclear stockpile**

***"If our nation and our precious freedoms are worth defending with the threat of***
***annihilation, we are surely worth defending by defensive means that ensure our survival." ***
***	******	******	******	******	******–******President Reagan ***

- Surety Science and Engineering requires public-private partnerships.

- Solutions to the Challenges and
- Threats of the 21st Century

## The Need for an Institute for

- Surety Science and Engineering

- Surety Science and Engineering can be fully developed by a partnership of
- universities, industry, and government agencies and their national laboratories.

***“******Because so many key components of our society are operated by the private sector, we must create a ***
***genuine public-private***
***partnership to protect America in the***
***21st century.”***
***–******President Clinton****** ***

- Application

**Institute for**
**Surety Science**
**and Engineering**

- Development

- Research

- Education

## Surety will Build a Stronger, Safer

**With surety discipline**
**•****	****Common body of knowledge, **
**	****based on well-accepted principles**
**•****	****Better emphasis on the balance of**
**	****safety, reliability, security and**
**	****use control**
**•****	****Government and industry **
**	****understand risk and know how **
**	****and when to mitigate it**
**•****	****Systems are performance **
**	****based—therefore measurable**
**•****	****Establish a new discipline of surety, **
**	****which is taught in our universities **
**	****and increases knowledge **
**	****and application**

- America Against the Spectrum
- of Threats

- The higher the consequence, the higher the level of surety must be deployed.

**LEVEL IV**
**Laws of nature**
**and mathematics**

**LEVEL III**
**Positive measures from**
**science and engineering**

**LEVEL II**
**Proactive human**
**intervention**

**LEVEL I **
**Working sufficiently**
**as expected**

## Surety Science and Engineering is

- An Evolving Discipline that needs
- Your Support

- Each high-consequence system, infrastructure, and threat
- will have its own surety solution, developed and implemented over time.

- The benefits of a national surety program are compelling.

**The cost of a national program to apply surety to our 21st century threats and challenges is small **
**compared to the consequences of:**
**  ****– ****a cascading failure of our infrastructures**
**  – ****preventable acts of physical or**
**     ****cyber terrorism or use of chemical or **
**     ****biological weapons of mass destruction**
**  – ****an airliner crash with fatalities**

## Sandia’s Heritage and

- Surety Approach

**Assured reliability, safety, security and use control of nuclear weapons**
**Attain surety based in laws of nature and mathematics –level** 4

- Unique Design
- Principles
- Identify and isolate critical components
- Assure fail-safe performance based on fundamental
- physical principles
- Operate only by unique
- signals that cannot be
- replicated in nature

- Unique Thinking
- Improved fundamental understanding of how things work–and how things fail
- Advancements from investigations into extended life of
- stockpile
- Predictable safe response even in event of failures

**Our primary mission is nuclear weapons engineering**

## Sandia’s Surety Approach

- Condition Assessment

- Emergency Management

- Approaches to emergency management should a weapons accident occur–
- information collection and management, decision support, training and exercise planning–could benefit society in
- planning for other high-consequence events

- Surveillance
- Testing
- Quality

- Instruments
- Telemetry

- Micromachines

- Independent Assessment

- LEVEL IV
- Laws of nature and mathematics

- LEVEL III
- Positive measures from science and engineering

- Advancements to
- improve surety

## Society has benefited from the technologiesdeveloped for nuclear weapons surety

- Society has benefited from the technologiesdeveloped for nuclear weapons surety

- Surety Dividends

- Clean rooms enabled a $960 billion worldwide electronics industry and revolutionized surgery and pharmaceutical practices. Detection and sensing technologies led to new medical instruments, crime fighting systems, explosives detection for airports, airbags, and chemical and environmental analysis tools.

- In the near future, society will see even greater benefits from our surety efforts–
- intelligent micro-machines (the “second
- silicon revolution”) will enhance safety and security; modeling and simulations coupled with unprecedented computer power will revolutionize engineering; and advancements in science and failure analysis will enhance reliability.

## Infrastructures–the framework of interdependent networks and systems that provides a continual 
flow of goods and services essential to the defense and economic security of the United States

- Fifty Years of Surety Experience
- Provide the Foundation for
- Protecting our Critical Infrastructures

- Infrastructures are growing more interdependent

- Infrastructures–the framework of interdependent networks and systems that provides a continual
- flow of goods and services essential to the defense and economic security of the United States

## The U.S. has recognizedour vulnerability to these threatsand has responded  by theformation of the Presidential Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection andsigning of the Presidential Decision Directive 63

- The U.S. has recognizedour vulnerability to these threatsand has responded  by theformation of the Presidential Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection andsigning of the Presidential Decision Directive 63

- Physical Threats
-   - Terrorist
-   - Aging and degradation
-   - Natural disaster
- Cyber Threats
-   - Malicious intrusion
-   - Inadvertent error
-   - Insider threat
- System Complexity
-   - Increasing number of
-     interconnections and automation
-   - Cascading effects
-   - Increasing interdependencies

- Our Infrastructure Faces
- New Threats

## Cascading Failures

- Western Power Outage
- 8-10-96

- Kansas City Air Traffic Control
- Center Outage 12-18-97

- Auckland Power Outage
- 2-20-98 through 3-27-98

- San Francisco
- Power Outage
- 10-23-97

- Satellite Outage
- 5-19-98

## Surety Solutions for

- • Vital issues processes
- • Consequence based analysis
- • Modeling of interdependencies
- • Indications and warnings system concepts
- • Information surety
- • U.S. infrastructure assurance roadmaps

- Protecting Our Infrastructures

## Integrated Approach to

- Nuclear Reactor Surety

- Model Development
- and
- Simulation

- Experimental Facilities

- Risk Assessment
- and Management

## Surety in

- Nuclear Materials Management

- Used as Declared in
- Normal Conditions

- Secure in
- Hostile Conditions

- Safe in
- Abnormal Conditions

- A Process from Cradle-to-Grave

## Software Surety Techniques

- Ariane 5 Missile Launch

- Sandia is developing surety techniques for the specification, construction, and immunology for
- high-consequence software systems

- Visualizing Mathematical
- Specifications

- Rigorously Verifiable
- Software Construction

- Systems ImmunologyTM

## Affordable Superiority

- Electronics Reliability
- and Vulnerability

- Nation’s Security

- Nation’s Economy

- Strategic Technologies

- Strategic Partnerships

- • Concurrent R&D to make new
-    technologies successful
- • Model-based building-in-reliability
- • Vulnerability assessment

- With New
- Technology Comes New
- Failure Modes

- University of New
- Mexico and Sandia
- Nationally Televise
- Electronics Reliability
- Courses

- • Leveraging the commercial
-    electronics industry to support
-    national security applications
- • Education and training

## Surety Principles are Making

- the Safest Air Transportation System
- in the World Even Safer

- The Flight Standards Service of the FAA has embraced surety principles as the
- basis for the next-generation Air Transportation Oversight System.

- Surety principles, including improved data quality and appropriate information
- management, offer enhanced aviation safety for the American public.

## Physical Terrorism/

- Architectural Surety

- Physical Terrorism

- Architectural Surety

- Blast Structure Computational Simulation

- Natural Disasters

- Window Glass
- Fragmentation

- Chemical  and
- Biological Weapons

- Risk
- Management

- Structural Health
- Monitoring

- Virtual Reality

## Fighting Crime and Terrorism

- Bomb Disablement Tools
- and Advanced Training

- Testing of Product Performance Claims

- Fluorescent Evidence
- Detector

## Fighting Crime and Terrorism

- More Secure Environments

- Virtual Reality Training

- Explosives
- Detection Portal

## School Security

- Problems
- • Guns
- • Drugs
- • Fights
- • Theft
- • Vandalism

## Institute for

- Surety Science and Engineering

- Surety Science
- and Engineering

- Development

- Application

- Research

- Education