# Presentation: 141454

## Agricultural Export Forecast RemainsUnchanged at $57 BillionImports Remain at $43 Billion 

**FY 2003 Export Projections for**
**Ag, Fishery & Solid Wood Products**

- USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”
- was released on February 20, 2003
- Prepared by Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA

## U.S. Agricultural Trade

**U.S. Agricultural Trade**

- FY 2003 exports forecast at $57 billion; surplus at $14 billion.      Corn, soybeans, wheat & meats drive most of the growth in 2003.

- Record

- Record

- Record

***Exports***

***Imports***

***Trade Balance   ***

## Commodity & Country Export Forecasts

| $ Billions | 
Final
FY 2002 | Nov
FY ‘03
Proj. | Feb
FY ‘03
For. | 
Nov/Feb
Chg | 

Main Reasons |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Wheat & Flour | 3.605 | 4.2 | 3.9 | -0.3 | (-) price/vol – more competition |
| Corn | 4.581 | 6.1 | 5.5 | -0.6 | (-) vol/price – more competition |
| Soybeans | 5.468 | 5.7 | 6.0 | +0.3 | (+) volume – demand from China |

**Commodity & Country Export Forecasts**

*Key 2003 Country Forecasts (changes from 2002)*
- Mexico +$800 million to $7.9 billion
- Canada +$500 million to $9.1 billion
- Japan +$500 million to $8.8 billion
-     ...Western Hemisphere at $21.7 billion ($800 million more than Asia)

***Key Changes Since November and Main Reasons***

## Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

**Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     $500 Million to $16.1 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- Large rice crop & low prices push US export volume to record 3.8 mmt
*Key Downside Developments*
- Wheat export vol & unit value lowered due to competition from Black Sea region and EU export subsidies
- US corn & sorghum shipments lowered 4.2 mmt due to strong competition from China, better prospects for SAmerican crops, large feed-quality wheat supply
*Wild Cards*
- China & Argentina corn exports

- Includes corn gluten feed/meal

## Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

**Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:       $400 Million to $10 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- Soybean sales to China are stronger than expected
- U.S. soybean export availability improves as production estimate rises 1.0 million tons since Nov
*Key Downside Developments*
- Larger S. American soybean supplies erode U.S. sales
- Oilseed prices soften as soybean supplies grow
*Wild Card*
- Outcome of U.S.-Brazilian competition over China market

- Excludes corn gluten feed/meal

## Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters

**Export Outlook for Cotton & Linters**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:   Unchanged at $2.6 Billion

- Note:  FY ’02 and prior years based on U.S Census data; FY ‘03 forecast based on USDA WASDE MY forecast.

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- Continued strong demand in China
*Key Downside Developments*
- Lower import demand in South Asia
*Wild Cards*
- Size of China crop next year.

## Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry

**Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & Poultry**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     Unchanged at $12.4 Billion

*Record*

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- Beef exports to East Asia (other than Japan) remain strong
*Key Downside Developments*
- Japan’s safeguard on beef and pork imports
- Mexico’s dumping investigation on U.S. pork
*Wild Cards*
- U.S. poultry plants must be re-inspected & approved by June 1 to fill Russia’s import quota
- Outbreak of Exotic New Castle Disease in the United States & U.S. containment efforts

## Export Outlook for Horticultural Products

**Export Outlook for Horticultural Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     Unchanged at $11.3 Billion

*Record*

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- Modest economic growth & somewhat weaker dollar support sales to EU & Canada; Mexico’s economic growth exceeds 3%
*Key Downside Developments*
- Smaller U.S. apple & pear crop
- Market access uncertainty for apples to Taiwan & Mexico
- Reduced U.S. fruit juice supply
*Wild Cards*
- Record almond crop depresses prices, but sales volume should rise leaving overall export value uncertain

## Export Outlook for Fishery Products

**Export Outlook for Fishery Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:   Unchanged at $3.1 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- Pollock fillets & other white fish should continue to do well in the EU market
- The 2003 Alaska salmon harvest is projected to rise 16% over 2002 with sockeye salmon projected to increase 35%
*Key Downside Developments*
- Prices remain down for catfish, pollock roe, shrimp & other prods
*Wild Cards*
- Uncertainty of U.S. harvest for pollock, salmon & other species

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***

## Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products

**Export Outlook for Solid Wood Products**

- Revised FY 2003 Forecast:     Unchanged at $4.8 Billion

- Revised FY 2003 Forecasts
*Key Upside Developments*
- China’s growing furniture & interiors market leads to increased demand for U.S. hardwoods & softwoods
- China’s revised building codes allow wood frame construction
*Key Downside Developments*
- U.S. softwood logs & lumber shipped to Japan keep loosing market share to Scandinavia & Russia
*Wild Cards*
- Illegal logging initiatives
- U.S. housing starts

***Forecasts are not official USDA estimates.***