# Presentation: 433640

## The Darwin VAAC Volcanic Ash WorkstationR Potts, M Manickam, A Tupper and J DaveyBureau of Meteorology, Australia

- Volcanic ash – aviation hazard mitigation arrangements
- Science / Operational issues
- VAWS
- Future directions

## Warnings for volcanic ash

- Advice for aviation on eruptions and the presence of volcanic ash is based on detection or notification of an eruption, satellite data and dispersion model output.
- The text based advice provides information on the current position of the ash cloud and forecast positions for +6h, +12h and +18h.

## VAAC service requirement – the process
Timely advice / detection of eruption
Delineation of analysed threat area or ash boundary
Delineation of forecast threat area
Timely preparation and issue of Volcanic Ash Advisory (corresponding graphical product)

- Timely advice / detection of eruption
- Delineation of analysed threat area or ash boundary
- Delineation of forecast threat area
- Timely preparation and issue of Volcanic Ash Advisory (corresponding graphical product)

- Warnings for volcanic ash

## Science issues 
Timely detection of eruption / ash cloud 
Satellite data
Detection of ash (height, boundary)
Discrimination of ash from water/ice clouds
Vis / IR data – GOES9, NOAA AVHRR

- Timely detection of eruption / ash cloud
- Satellite data
- Detection of ash (height, boundary)
- Discrimination of ash from water/ice clouds
- Vis / IR data – GOES9, NOAA AVHRR

- Warnings for volcanic ash

## Science issues ... cont 
Dispersion model
Underlying NWP model
Source term 
Dispersion model 
Utilization / visualization of output
What ash concentration is a hazard to aircraft

- Dispersion model
- Underlying NWP model
- Source term
- Dispersion model
- Utilization / visualization of output
- What ash concentration is a hazard to aircraft

- Warnings for volcanic ash

## Warnings for volcanic ash

- Operational / Service issues
- Timely advice of eruption / ash cloud
- Delineation of analysed threat area
- Delineation of forecast threat area
- Timely issue of volcanic ash warnings
- Process manually intensive
- Staff resources limited
- Risk of delays / errors

## Warnings for volcanic ash

- Operational / Service issues ... cont
- Need for graphical product consistent with text VAA
- Training & Education

## Warnings for volcanic ash

- Service requirement
- ...
- Delineation of analysed threat area
- (height, perimeter, multiple layers)
- Delineation of forecast threat area
- (height, perimeter, multiple layers)
- ...

## Ruang volcano - 25 September 2002, 0345 UTC

- GMS5 satellite data, 25 Sept 2002, 1230 UTC

## Ruang volcano - 25 September 2002, 0345 UTC

- GMS5, 25 Sept 2002, 1230 UTC

- Hysplit dispersion model forecast

- 25 Sept, 1300 UTC

## Volcanic ash warning service

- Service requirement
- ...
- Timely preparation of Volcanic Ash Advisory (and corresponding graphical product)

## Interactive user interface to streamline preparation of warning
Integrated display environment (satellite, NWP data, dispersion model) 
Text + graphical product  
Stable framework for implementation of improved analysis and forecast methodologies
Responsive graphical interface 
Platform independence 

- Integrated display environment (satellite, NWP data, dispersion model)
- Text + graphical product
- Stable framework for implementation of improved analysis and forecast methodologies
- Responsive graphical interface
- Platform independence

- Volcanic Ash Warning Preparation System (VAWS)

## Volcanic Ash Warning Preparation System (VAWS)

- Graphical interface
-  Select volcano
-  Define height and delineate analysed and forecast threat areas

## Text interface

- Input manual elements of Advisory message
- Preview output
- Submit

## Output graphical product

## The next step –

- Implement display of satellite data, NWP data, dispersion model output

## Operational experience

- Operational use since 2 Dec 2003
- 200+ VAA messages up to 1 June 2004
- www.bom.gov.au/info/vaac/advisories.shtml
- Forecasters generally satisfied
- Streamlines preparation of VAA
- Upgrades (look and feel, operations)
- Aviation industry satisfied with graphical product
- Consistent with text product
- Clear, simple, concise

## Future directions

- Further development of VAWS
- dispersion model
- Detection of volcanic eruptions
- Improve detection and analysis of volcanic ash plumes - MTSAT-R, MODIS, GIFTS
- Improve utilisation of ash dispersion model output

## The End