# Presentation: 726421

## CFS Test and Evaluation Team

- Team Mission
- Perform test experiments and evaluate CTB-funded projects related to CFS improvements.
- While the CTB grant program becomes mature, conduct internally proposed experiments and evaluate the results. Experiments are designed to accelerate the development of CFS.
- Team Membership: EMC and CPC federal and contract employees,
- 	and CTB funded investigators.

## Team activities in FY08

- Actively engaged in monitoring CFS Reanalysis
- 	- sharing computing resources with CFS R; 14 CTB compute nodes (448 CPUs) contributed towards CFS RR until June 2008 when the NOAA research computer was upgraded - Vapor
- 2.	Six internal experiments proposed and ranked by CST
- 	a. T382 CFS experiments for hurricane season prediction
- 		(J. Schemm, L. Long and K. Mo)
- 	b. Impact of oceanic ICs for intraseasonal prediction
- 		(A. Vintzileos and D. Behringer)
- 	c. Ensemble runs of historical NLDAS for 1958-2008
- 		(Y. Fan and H. van den Dool)
- 	d. Impact of atmospheric ICs for CFS
- 		(W. Wang and A. Vintzileos)
- 	e. Re-execution of GLDAS/Noah-LSM with new attributes
- 		(K. Mitchell, R. Yang and J. Meng)
- 	f. Impact of cloud-radiation-SST interaction over eastern Pacific
- 		(W. Wang and P. Xie)

## FY07 accomplishments 

-    - 17 internal experiments proposed and approved by CST
-     - Most experiments finished with some carried over
-       to FY08
- FY07 experiments have provided valuable insight and
- recommendations towards the next CFS.

## Results from three internal experiments

- Convectively forced gravity wave drag (A. Johansson)
- T382 CFS runs for hurricane season prediction
- 	(J. Schemm, L. Long, K. Mo, S. Saha, C. Thiaw)
- Impact of ocean IC on subseasonal prediction
- 	(A. Vintzileos and D. Behringer)
- 	- will be presented by D. Behringer (next presentation)

## Experiment with convectively forced gravity wave drag in CFS

- 	- One of the FY07 projects carried over
- Experimental CFS in T126L64 resolution with updates:
-        1. New Shortwave radiation: Hourly + RRTM1
-          2. Longwave Radiation: Hourly + RRTM
-          3. Realistic CO2
-          4. Maximum-random cloud overlap
- 	  5. Enthalpy as prognostic variable
- Tests performed in simulation mode for 11 years

## Slide 6

## OBS

**Improvements**

**OBS**

**CNTR**

**GWDC1**
**GWDC2**

## Conclusions

- Zonal wind error is improved in tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere
- SST is slightly improved in the Niño3.4 area
- Effect on precipitation is small
- Climate in the extratropics is not statistically different from Control
- Currently in the EMC’s parallel test suite for the next GFS
- 	implementation

## T382 CFS runs for hurricane season prediction

- AGCM -  2007 operational NCEP GFS
- LSM - Noah LSM
- OGCM - GFDL MOM3
- All runs initialized with NCEP/DOE R2 and NCEP GODAS in
- 	April, 1981-2007 (May 15 ICs in FY07 experiment)
- AGCM spatial resolution in T382L64, planned for 3 member ensemble
- FY07 experiment was extensively analyzed by the Evaluation Team members

## Examples of Storm Tracks for 4 NH Basins

## Slide 11

## AC = .44

- AC= .35

## 			Summary

-  CFS in T382 resolution exhibits fairly robust climatological
-     seasonal cycle of tropical cyclone over four NH basins
-  Captured Warming trend and intensification of hurricane activity
-     in the post-1995 period over the Atlantic basin
-  Increased horizontal resolution lead to improved vertical wind
-    shear prediction over the Atlantic MDR
-  Ensemble members needed for better depiction of storm statistics
-    and large scale circulation - Plan to complete at least 3 ensemble
-    member runs in FY08

## Subseasonal forecasting with the CFS

**Climate Test Bed Experiments**
- Augustin Vintzileos and Dave Behringer
**Past:** The Maritime Continent Prediction Barrier. Impacts of horizontal resolution and atmospheric I.C. on MJO forecast skill.
**Present:** Impact of high frequency oceanic I.C. on MJO forecast skill.
**Future:** Proposals to be submitted to CTB. Optimal ways for ensemble generation, Multi-Model-Ensemble MJO forecast

## Remarks

-  	Collaborative efforts among the CTB T&E Team 		members continue.
-  	This successful collaboration should evolve further in 	FY09 with funded projects for the next+1 CFS.
-           Looking forward to testing and evaluating improvements 	to CFS from CTB funded external projects.

## Slide 16