# Presentation: 048646

## Short and Mid-Term US Energy Outlook

**Energy Information Administration**
**February 23, 2004**

**Presentation to the**
**National Governor’s Association**
**2004 Winter Meeting**

## WTI Crude Oil Price(Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval*)

**The confidence intervals show  +/- 2 standard errors based on the properties of the model.  The ranges do not include the effects of major supply disruptions.*

**Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004**

## OECD Commercial Oil Stocks

**Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004**

## Natural Gas Prices, 2002-2005

**Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004**

**Spot**

**Residential**

## Household Heating Cost Trends

**Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004**

## U.S. Gasoline Inventories

**Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004**

## Gasoline Prices and Crude Oil Costs

**Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004**

## Distillate Fuel Inventories

**Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004**

## U.S. Distillate Fuel Prices

**Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004**

## Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2025

**1960**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**20**

**40**

**60**

**80**

**100**

**120**

**140**

**Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2025**

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**History**

**Projections**

## Primary Energy Consumption, 2002 and 2025

**2025**

**Residential**

**Commercial**

**Industrial**

**Transportation**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**30**

**35**

**40**

**45**

**Primary Energy Consumption, 2002 and 2025**

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**2002**

## Light-duty Vehicle Efficiency, 2002 and 2025

**2002**

**2025**

**New Car**

**New Light-duty**

**Truck**

**New Light-duty**

**Vehicle Average**

**0**

**4**

**8**

**12**

**16**

**20**

**24**

**28**

**32**

**Light-duty Vehicle Efficiency, 2002 and 2025**

**(miles per gallon)**

**28.2**

**30.8**

**20.5**

**24.7**

**23.8**

**26.9**

## Projected Sectoral Composition of Output Growth,2002 – 2025 (percent per year) 

## Projected Sectoral Composition of Manufacturing Growth,2002 – 2025 (percent per year) 

## Industrial Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970 - 2025(quadrillion Btu) 

## Industrial Primary Energy Consumption by Industry Category,1998 – 2025 (quadrillion Btu) 

**heat and power**

## Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Gross Domestic 

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0.0**

**0.2**

**0.4**

**0.6**

**0.8**

**1.0**

**1.2**

**History**

**Projections**

**Energy use per **

**dollar of GDP**

**Energy use per **

**capita**

**Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Gross Domestic **

**Product, 1970-2025 (index, 1970 = 1)**

## U.S. Energy Production and Consumption, 1960-2025

**36%**

**Net imports**

**1960**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**20**

**40**

**60**

**80**

**100**

**120**

**140**

**U.S. Energy Production and Consumption, 1960-2025**

**(quadrillion Btu)**

**History**

**Projections**

**Production**

**Consumption**

## World Oil Price, 1970-2025

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**10**

**20**

**30**

**40**

**50**

**60**

**70**

**World Oil Price, 1970-2025**

**(2002 dollars per barrel)**

**History**

**Projections**

- 

- 

**1995**

**2025**

**$17.14**

**$51.74**

**Reference case**

**(nominal dollars)**

## Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports, 1970-2025

**70%**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**5**

**10**

**15**

**20**

**25**

**30**

**Domestic supply**

**Consumption**

**History**

**Projections**

**Net imports**

**Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports, 1970-2025**

**(million barrels per day)**

## 15%

**15%**

**23%**

**Net imports**

## 2002-2025 (trillion cubic feet)

**supplemental natural gas production, Canadian, and Mexican imports.**

**2002**

**2010**

**2020**

**2025**

**16**

**20**

**24**

**28**

**32**

**Major Sources of Incremental Natural Gas Supply,**

**2002-2025 (trillion ****cubic**** feet)**

**Growth in Alaskan Production**

**All Other Production**

*****

**Growth in Non-associated **

**Unconventional**

**Growth in LNG Imports**

## Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2025

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**1**

**2**

**3**

**4**

**5**

**Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2025**

**(2002 dollars per thousand cubic feet)**

**History**

**Projections**

- 

- 

**1995**

**2025**

**$1.55**

**$8.44**

**Reference case**

**(nominal dollars)**

## Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2025

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**6**

**12**

**18**

**24**

**30**

**36**

**42**

**48**

**54**

**Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2025**

**(2002 dollars per ton)**

**History**

**Projections**

- 

- 

**1995**

**2025**

**Average price**

**(nominal dollars)**

**$31.76**

**$18.83**

## Coal Production by Region, 1970-2025

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**400**

**800**

**1,200**

**1,600**

**Coal Production by Region, 1970-2025**

**(million short tons)**

**History**

**Projections**

**Total**

**East of the Mississippi**

**West of the Mississippi**

## Electricity Price, 1970-2025

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**2**

**4**

**6**

**8**

**10**

**Electricity Price, 1970-2025**

**(2002 cents per kilowatthour)**

**History**

**Projections**

- 

- 

**1970**

**2025**

**Average price**

**(nominal cents)**

**1.7**

**13.2**

## Projected Electricity Generation by Fuel,

**2002**

**2025**

**Coal**

**Nuclear**

**Natural gas**

**Renewables**

**Oil**

**0**

**500**

**1,000**

**1,500**

**2,000**

**2,500**

**3,000**

**3,500**

**Projected Electricity Generation by Fuel,**

**2002 and 2025 (billion kilowatthours)**

**50**

**52**

**20**

**14**

**18**

**23**

**2**

**2**

**9**

**9**

**- percent of total**

## Electricity Capacity, 2002-2025

**2002**

**2010**

**2020**

**2025**

**0**

**200**

**400**

**600**

**800**

**1,000**

**1,200**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewable**

**Electricity Capacity, 2002-2025**

**(gigawatts)**

**Existing Capacity,**

**with Future Retirements**

**Needed**

**Capacity**

## Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1960-2025

**1960**

**1970**

**1980**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0**

**2,000**

**4,000**

**6,000**

**8,000**

**Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1960-2025**

**(million metric tons)**

**History**

**Projections**

**6559 in 2010**

**8142 in 2025**

**1990**

**2000**

**2010**

**2025**

**0.0**

**0.3**

**0.5**

**0.8**

**1.0**

**Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity,**

**1990-2025 (index, 1990 = 1.0)**

**History**

**Projections**

**Carbon dioxide emissions**

**per dollar of gross domestic product**

## Forecast Uncertainties

- Regulatory Change
- Technological Breakthroughs
- Demographic Shifts
- Domestic and International Political Instability
- Energy Price Uncertainty

## Slide 31