# Presentation: 426881

## WIST Impacts Planning Tool (WIPT): 

**An Integrated Weather Effects**
**Surface Transportation Decision Aid**
**Mr. Richard Szymber**
**Dr. Richard Shirkey**
***US Army Research Laboratory***
***Computational and Information Sciences Directorate***
***Battlefield Environment Division***
***White Sands Missile range, NM 88002-5501***

**     ****Weather Information and Surface Transportation**
**Modeling and Simulation: **
**Required Products and Services**

**Notes:**
Info taken from OFCM docs: FCM-R18-2002, updated in FCM-R26-2006 and WIST Initiative document Sept ’05.

As mentioned by VADM Lautenbacher, Jr., USN (Ret.), this is the low-hanging fruit.

## 			              Outline

**Overview of the Integrated Weather Effects Decision Aid (IWEDA)**
**Ongoing R&D related to IWEDA**
** ****Weather Running Estimate / Nowcasting**
** ****Uncertainty tolerance **
**Critical Values – The “Rules”**
**Notional WIST Impact Planning Tool (WIPT)**

## IWEDA Overview

**The Tri-Service Integrated Weather Effects Decision Aid (*****IWEDA*****) is fielded to the US Army, Navy and Air Force**
**Provides weather impacts on military assets (missions, operations, systems, equipment, resources/infrastructure)**
**Compares critical environmental thresholds (rules) against forecast values for environmental data parameters.**

**Threshold criteria for IWEDA rules:**

|         Impact | Criteria |
| --- | --- |
| Green (favorable) | Degradation < ~25% |
| Amber (marginal) | Degradation = ~25 to ~75 % |
| Red (unfavorable) | Degradation > ~75% |

***IWEDA Overview***

## IWEDA Overview

** • ****Weather Effects Matrix (WEM) showing forecast weather hazard conditions with time **
**• ****Map overlay depicting spatial distribution of impacts**

***IWEDA derives and depicts environmental impacts by generating easy-to-understand tabular and graphical products.***

***IWEDA Overview***

## IWEDA Overview

**Clicking anywhere on the map displays full impact statements for all adverse weather impacts on the asset for that specific location and time.**

***IWEDA Overview***

## Related R&D

*Military System Requirements and Civil National Needs Documents (OFCM, WIST, FM-R-18-2002) identify that 5 km or less resolution is required*

- The Army does not produce *operational* forecasts
- Uses USAF Weather Agency forecast data feeds to run IWEDA in the field
- ARL R&D is developing a diagnostic data assimilation and short term nowcasting capability called the Weather Running Estimate / Nowcast (WRE-N)
- Uses Local Area Prediction System (LAPS) type assimilation methods using forward area data

| Current | Near-Term | Potential |
| --- | --- | --- |
| IWEDA Runs Off  MM5 and WRF Mesoscale Forecast Data | IWEDA updates weather intelligence using forward area observations in WRE-N (0-3 hr) | Could add National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) access for extended forecasts |
| 15 km and 5 km spatial resolution | 1 km spatial resolution | 5 km to 2.5 km resolution |
| 3 hour temporal resolution | 1 hour temporal resolution | 6 to 1 hour temporal resolution |
| 48 hour forecast period | 3 hour forecast period | Extends forecasts several days |

**Related R&D**

**Notes:**
Takes observational data and assimilates them into a diagnostic model (as opposed to prognostic forecast) and short-term nowcasting capability (adds the forecast) into WRE-N.  
NDFD: this is NOAAs forecast DB.  The database is intended to be a “seamless mosaic of NWS digital forecasts” including wx, water, and climate forecasts from Weather Forecast Offices, River Forecast Centers, and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.  It will begin w 5-km spatial grids prior to 2003, with the aim of improving resolution to 2.5 km nationally after that.  Temporal resolution will be 6 hrs for days 1 to 3 prior to 2003, migrating to 3 hrs for days 1 to 2....

## Weather Running Estimate / Nowcast – WRE-N

***Weather Running Estimate / Nowcast – WRE-N***

## Related R&D

-   Under Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Program, ARL has supported Next Century Corp., Columbia, MD to develop the “Weather Risk Analysis and Portrayal System (WRAP)
-   WRAP portrays the uncertainty based on risk tolerance from an ensemble of synoptic scale forecasts (Global Ensemble and Mesoscale Ensemble modeling from approximately 70 km down to 1 km resolution)
-    WRAP uses IWEDA Rule Sets to identify impact thresholds
-    Outputs are IWEDA-like map displays of impacts with uncertainties related to thresholds and probability of being impacted
-    USAF Weather Agency interest in WRAP is to integrate it to the Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS) and for use with Army Battlefield Weather Teams

**Related R&D**

## Weather Risk Analysis and Portrayal - WRAP

- Stochastic / Ensemble
- Weather Data

- Asset Risk
- Rules

- User Risk
-  Tolerance

***      ******WRAP***
-  Risk Calculations
-  Stop-light style
-    decision inputs
-  Portrayal Techniques

***Given uncertain weather, lower acceptable risk means less certainty in the desired outcome.***

*Weather Risk Analysis and Portrayal - WRAP*

## Critical Values (Rules)

*The “rule” form of the IWEDA rule-based weather impacts*

***Critical Values (Rules)***

##   ARL’s Database contains Army impact thresholds and rules for U.S. Military Services Transportation Operations (land, sea and air logistics)

-   ARL’s Database contains Army impact thresholds and rules for U.S. Military Services Transportation Operations (land, sea and air logistics)
-  US Transportation Command assets & operations
-  Air Mobility Command assets & operations
-  Military Sealift Command assets & operations
-  Military Traffic Management Command assets & operations
-  Army 7th Transportation Group assets & operations
-  Army Transportation School & Center assets & operations

**Integrating Surface Transportation Weather Forecasting**
** ****and Weather Effects Decision Aid System Development**

## IWEDA Rules

**Red-Amber-Green impact criteria for the WIST rules**
**Example showing the similarity of WIST and IWEDA rules for visibility and wind effects on transport operations**

**IWEDA Rules**

## WIST Rules

**WIST Rules**

## WIST Impact Planning Tool (WIPT) 

***WIST Impact Planning Tool (WIPT)****** ***

## ARL is prepared to integrate the WIST thresholds & impacts with the IWEDA Rules to produce a Joint Civil – Military Operations capability for surface transportation decision aids

- Will include U.S. Civil Sectors Transportation Operations:
** ****Roadways** activities & operations
** ****Federal Highways** activities & operations
** ****Long-Haul Railways** activities & operations
** ****Marine Transportation System** activities & operations
** ****Pipeline Systems** activities & operations
** ****Rural and Urban Transit Systems** activities & operations
** ****Airport Ground Operations** activities

**Integrating Surface Transportation Weather Forecasting**
** ****and Weather Effects Decision Aid System Development**

## ARL has T-IWEDA technology developed over 10 years at a cost > $ 1M which can be leveraged

**Weather Effects Decision Aid System Development?**

**Integrating Surface Transportation Weather Forecasting**
** ****and Weather Effects Decision Aid System Development**

- ARL has T-IWEDA technology developed over 10 years at a cost > $ 1M *which can be leveraged*
- Our experience can merge military weather impacts with civil weather impacts
-  WIST rule base to produce a Joint Civil-Military Operations capability for weather impacts/warnings
-  Tailored applications
- We are in the process of producing a web-based capability to both access weather inputs and provide access to users through client applications

**Notes:**
Re: Joint Doctrine for Civil-Military Operations, Joint Pub 3-57, 8 Feb 2001
HS: Joint Pub 3-26 2 Aug 2005

## Conclusions

**Benefits to Surface Transportation Decision Makers;  WIST – IWEDA Impact Planning Tool would include:**
-   IWEDA and WIST templates that would be fully compatible (incorporating WIST mitigation action and lead time fields)
-  Civil Sectors merged with Military Services T-IWEDA CRDB to establish a Joint Civil-Military Operations capability for Weather Impacts
-  Automated production of weather impacts on civil-military surface transportation operations and activities, and visualization of effects in decision aids.
-  Support to planning and operational needs of the civil-military surface transportation community.
-  Cost-benefit savings by leveraging civil and military capabilities in surface transportation applications.

## Points of Contact:

**Mr. Richard Szymber**
**Army Lead on Weather Impact Rules Development**
**(505) 678-0634; **_[Richard.Szymber@us.army.mil](mailto:Richard.Szymber@us.army.mil)__ _
**Dr. Richard Shirkey**
**Lead DoD Tri-Service IWEDA Consortium**
**(505) 678-5470; **_[Richard.Shirkey@us.army.mil](mailto:Richard.Shirkey@us.army.mil)_
**US Army Research Laboratory **
**CISD/Battlefield Environment Division**
**AMSRD-ARL-CI-ED**
**White sands Missile range, NM 88002-5501**

- Backup

## Primary References for WIPT

- FCM-R18-2002 _Weather Information for Surface Transportation __*National Needs Assessment Report*_ (December 2002)
- _Weather Information for Surface Transportation (WIST) Initiative Document_ (September 2005)
- FCM-R26-2006 _Weather Information for Surface Transportation__* Update on Weather Impacts and WIST Results*_ (August 2006)
- Joint Publication 3-26 _Homeland Security_ (August 2005)
- Joint Publication 3-57 _Joint Doctrine for Civil-Military Operations_ (February 2001)
- FCM-P11-2001 _National Severe Local Storms Operations Plan_  (May 2001)
- FCM-P12-2006 _National Hurricane Operations Plan_ (May 2006)
- FCM-P13-2005 _National Winter Storms Operations Plan_   (December 2005)

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