# Presentation: 913085

## Hazard Mapping and Modeling INTRODUCTION

**Ute J. Dymon, Professor of Geography, **
**Nancy L. Winter, PhD,**
**Kent State University**

## What Are Hazards?

- The most concise definition of the term “hazard”:
- 	Hazards are “threats to humans 	and what they value”.
- (Kates, et al, 1985 in *Perilous Progress*)

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## What Are Hazards?

- “What they value” was defined by Kates in 1985 in *Perilous Progress*.
-   It includes: _life, well being, material goods and environment_.

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## In Multihazard Identification and Assessment FEMA defines hazards as:

-   “Events or physical conditions that have the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of  business, or other types of harm or loss.”

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## Webster’s Dictionary defines a hazard as: 

-                       “a source of danger;
-                    a chance event;
-                    an accident, etc.”

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## The Role of the Term “Hazard”

- The term “hazard” is descriptive.
-  It describes with words.

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##  The Role of the Term “Risk” 

-   The term “risk” calculates or measures with a mathematical formula the likelihood that adverse consequences will result from a hazardous event.

| RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCES  |
| --- |

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##  What is a “Disaster”? 

-    More than 100 people dead or injured and more than 1 million US $ in damages (Burton *et al*, 1978).
-    “Hazard” represents *potential* events while
-    “disasters” result from *actual* events involving humans.

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## THE UNIVERSE OF HAZARDS

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##  Technological Hazard Definitions 

-  **biocide:**
- 	a substance (such as DDT) that is toxic to many different organisms
-  **teratogen:**
- 	an agent that tends to cause developmental malformations or monstrosities in the next generation

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##  Research Classifications for Technological Hazards 

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## FEMA’S CLASSES FOR TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS 

-                     Dam Failures
-                     Fires
-                     Hazardous Materials Events
-                     Nuclear Accidents
-                     National Security Hazards
-                     Power Failures
-                     Telecommunications Failures

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## Causal Model of Technological Hazards 

| Release of Materials or Energy |
| --- |

| Initiating Events |
| --- |

| Choice of Technology |
| --- |

- CAUSAL SEQUENCE OF HAZARD **→**

| Human  and/or Biological Consequences |
| --- |

| Human Need |
| --- |

| Exposure to Materials or Energy |
| --- |

| Human Wants |
| --- |

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## CAUSAL SEQUENCE FOR BODILY HARM FROM A FIREPLACE HAZARD 

- CAUSAL SEQUENCE

| HUMAN NEEDS |
| --- |
| SHELTER |

| HUMAN WANTS |
| --- |
| HEATED HOUSE |

| CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGY |
| --- |
| FIREPLACE |

| INITIATING EVENS |
| --- |
| DISTRACTION, WIND, SPARKS |

| OUTCOME |
| --- |
| GARMENT IGNITES |

| EXPOSURE |
| --- |
| HEAT ON SKIN |

| CONSEQUENCE |
| --- |
| BURNED   SKIN |

- Seven-stage hazard sequence, illustrated here for the case of the fireplace.

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## CONTROL INTERVENTIONS FOR A FIREPLACE HAZARD 

- CAUSAL SEQUENCE

| HUMAN NEEDS |
| --- |
| SHELTER |

| HUMAN WANTS |
| --- |
| HEATED HOUSE |

| CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGY |
| --- |
| FIREPLACE |

| INITIATING EVENS |
| --- |
| DISTRACTION, WIND, SPARKS |

| OUTCOME |
| --- |
| GARMENT IGNITES |

| EXPOSURE |
| --- |
| HEAT ON SKIN |

| CONSEQUENCE |
| --- |
| BURNED SKIN |

| BLOCK OUTCOME |
| --- |
| FIRE SCREEN FIREPROOF GARMENTS |

| BLOCK EVENTS |
| --- |
| PAY ATTENTION |

| ALTER TECHNOLOGY |
| --- |
| USE ENCLOSED STOVE |

| BLOCK CONSEQUENCE |
| --- |
| METHOD UNKNOWN |

| PREVENT EXPOSURE |
| --- |
| QUICKLY SMOTHER FLAMES |

| MODIFY WANTS |
| --- |
| MOVE TO WARMER CLIMATE |

- Seven-stage expansion of the hazard sequence, illustrated here for the case of the fireplace. Note the range of possible control interventions

## INTERVENTION = MITIGATION 

-   Intervention at this individual level is akin to mitigation efforts by society.
-    Mitigation is the effort to reduce the impact of an actual or potential disaster.
-    Mitigation can broadly be divided into structural and nonstructural forms.

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##  INTERVENTIONS TO CONTROL AUTOMOBILE HAZARDS 1920 -1980

| 

           1920

            1930

                   1940

                    1950

                  1960

                    1970

           1980                       | MODIFY TECHNOLOGY | PREVENT INITIATING EVENTS | PREVENT OUTCOME | PREVENT EXPOSURE | PREVENT CONSEQUENCES | MITIGATE CONSEQUENCES |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |                               DRIVER 
                           LICENSING                                                                                          MEDICAL CARE
                       RULES OF ROAD
                              TRAFFIC                IMPROVED
                              SIGNALS                  BRAKES                                      SAFETY
                                                                                                                GLASS
                                                                                                                                                                             |  |  |  |  |  |
|  |                                                                                                                            

                                                          IMPROVED       INTERSTATE
                                                                TIRES               HIGHWAYS
                                                                                                                     SEATBELTS
                                                                                               WIDER
                                                                                         SHOULDERS     PADDED DASH
                                                                                                                                               CLOOAPSIBLE         EMERGENCY
                                                                                                                                          STEERING COLUMN       MEDICAL 
                                                                                                                                                                               CARE SYSTEM
 |  |  |  |  |  |

- Chronological distribution of hazard control intervention by hazard stage for the case of automobile safety
- Source: Kates, et al, 1985 in *Perilous Progress*

##  CHRONOLOGY OF HAZARD CONTROL FOR MINIMATA DISEASE 1956-1980

| 

            1956

            1960

                    1964

                    1968

                  1972

                    1976

           1980                       | MODIFY TECHNOLOGY | PREVENT INITIATING EVENTS | PREVENT OUTCOME | PREVENT EXPOSURE | PREVENT CONSEQUENCES | MITIGATE CONSEQUENCES |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|  |                                                                                                                                    MEDICAL CARE
                                                                                                                      REDUCE         OF VICTIMS
                                                                                    REROUTE           FISHING
                                                           ATTEMPT           FACTORY
                                                            REMOVAL OF       EFFLUENT
                                                               Hg FROM
                                                            WASTEWATER

                                                               INSTALL
    TERMINATION                                  CLOSED
 OF PRODUCTION                                CIRCULATION
                                                                SYSTEM

     GOVERNMENT                                                                                                            COMPENSATION
    ORDER ENDS                                                                                                                    OF VICTIMS
     USE OF

   TRANSFER OF
   PLANTS TO 
    THAILAND |  |  |  |  |  |

- Chronological distribution of hazard control intervention by hazard stage for a case of  Minamata disease
- Source: Kates, et al, 1985 in *Perilous Progress*

## Slide 19

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##  HAZARD ASSESSMENT PORTION OF THE HAZARD MANAGEMENT MAPPING MODEL

**HAZARD**
**INDENTIFICATION**

**RISK**
**ESTIMATION**

- revelation
- intuition
- extrapolation

- research
- screening
- monitoring
- diagnosis

**EVALUATION AND**
**RESOURCE ALLOCATION**

- choose control energy
- implement strategy
- allocate resources
- monitor & mitigate

**HAZARD MAPS**
**location of threat**

**RISK MAPS**
**probability and degree**
**of consequence**

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##  EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PORTION OF THE HAZARD MANAGEMENT MAPPING MODEL 

- DISASTER MANAGEMENT MAPPING

**EMERGENCY MAPPING**

- For Preparedness

- During Crisis

- Emergency Response

- Recovery

- PLANNING MAPS

- CRISIS MAPS

- RESPONSE MAPS

- TIME SERIES MAPS

- Hazard
- Risk
- Vulnerability
- Fire
- police
- Evacuation Routes
- Sensitive Populations
- Shelters
- Medical Facilities
- Cold Storage Facilities
- Utilities
- GIS Base maps
- Land Parcels
- Topography
- Trailer Parks

- Control of      physical agent
- Search & rescue
- Damage assessment
- Inundation

- RISK COMMUNICATION (Through Media to Public)

- Trash sites
- Burn sites
- Debris removal planning
- Red Cross stations
- Food kitchens
- Water/portable toilets
- Tent cities
- Shelters
- FEMA Disaster Application Centers
- HHS Services
- Unemployment services
- GIS Base maps
- Flood insurance rate maps

- Changes from physical agent
- Damages
- Rate of repairs
- Rate of debris removal
- Infrastructure reconstruction
- Mitigation planning

- Property records
- Tax assessments
- Address files
- Land parcels
- Building footprints
- Road network
- Housing types
- Street signs

- Georeferenced
- DATA FILES

## BASIC ROLES MAPS PLAY IN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 

**Facilitate resource/service flow before/during /after emergency.**
**Coordinate efforts of emergency groups and services by use of a concreted model.**
**Concrete model/guide for public action.**
**Quick tracking  of key information ---at a glance. **

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## PITFALLS IN PROVIDING EMERGENCY MAPS TO THE PUBLIC

- how to distribute so there’s availability
- how to keep maps up-to-date and available after updating
- what information to include
-        - This requires assumptions to be made about a.) what level of education the user (the public) will have, especially about technical issues, b.) reading ability levels and map reading skills
- how technically trained is the public in map reading and use
- how to incorporate local knowledge – often this can’t be put on    the map but needs to be considered when doing the planning for emergency (this is one of the most problematic areas of emergency map design)

## DEFINITION FOR FREQUENCY 

-    Frequency is the temporal distribution of extreme geophysical events (natural hazards) and their recurrence intervals or return periods.
-    Some physical processes can be delineated within seasonal or diurnal time periods.
-     *Duration *means* *a temporal period ranging from seconds to years.

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## DEFINITION FOR MAGNITUDE 

-     The magnitude of a geophysical event is determined by _scientific measures of the strength of the physical event_.
-     “Measures of magnitude do not concern impacts of an event on the human-use system, that is **intensity**, but rather the physical processes involved.”  (Tobin, Graham A. and Burrell E. Montz.1997. *Natural Hazards*. New York: Guilford Press. 53.)
-    Direct measurements of some hazards are difficult to make; in these cases *intensity* ratings that indicate degrees of destruction of the built environment are applied.
- 	The **Modified Mercalli** **scale** for earthquakes and the **Fujita scale** for tornadoes include building damage to show magnitude.

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## DEFINITION FOR VULNERABILITY 

-     Vulnerability means how susceptible or how resilient a society is to negative consequences from hazards, or how much risk exists in that society.
-     Identifying what characteristics of the society - physical, social, economic -make it more, or less, resilient to hazardous events helps clarify the society’s vulnerability.
-     (Cutter, Susan L. 1994. *Environmental Risks and Hazards*. Englewood Cliffs NJ: Prentice Hall)

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## What is ADJUSTMENT?

-       Human actions to minimize the threat of a natural hazard and to mitigate its effects.
- 		These actions give the society the capacity to absorb the 	extreme natural event.
-     Three major types of adjustment can take place in a community:
**MODIFY THE EVENT** by structural responses that control the event or the damage it causes.
**SHARE THE LOSS BURDEN** by spreading the financial burden by hazard  insurance or relief.
**MODIFY THE HUMAN-USE SYSTEM** to reduce losses by forecasting, warning systems, preparedness plans, evacuation plans, better building design, etc.
-      	(Cutter, Susan L. 1994. *Environmental Risks and Hazards*. Englewood 	Cliffs NJ: Prentice Hall)

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## DEFINITION OF CRISIS MAPPING 

-     Crisis maps are made on-the-spot, often with crude materials, during the peak danger time of an emergency to control the physical agent causing the destruction or to control its consequences.
-    (Dymon, Ute J. and Nancy L. Winter. 1991. Emergency Mapping in Grassroots America: A Derailment Evacuation Case Study. *Geoforum*. 22:4 377-389.)

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## DR. JOHN SNOW’S MAP OF A WATER-BORNE CHOLERA SOURCE 

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## DEFINITION OF EPIDEMIOLOGY 

-    The study of epidemics, their origins, causes and vectors (methods or paths of transmission of a disease.)

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## TIMELINE OF LEGISLATION THAT SPURRED HAZARD MAPPING 

- 1966   Disaster Relief Act enacted
-    National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) established
-    National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) enacted
-    Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) created
- 1972   Clean Water Act amended
- 1977   National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) enacted
- 1977   Executive Order #11988 Floodplain Management
- 1977   Executive Order #11990 Protection of Wetlands
- 1979   Executive Order #12148 Federal Emergency Management: FEMA created
- 1981   Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act
-            (CERCLA- Superfund) enacted
- 1986   Emergency Planning and Community Right to Know Act of 1986, also known     as  SARA Title III
-  1991   Amendments to the 1955 Air Pollution Control Act,
-  1996   Weapons of Mass Destruction (Nunn-Lugar-Domenici Act) enacted
-  2003    Homeland Security Act

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