# Presentation: 125580

## USGS in the 21st Century: Climate science and new directions

**USGS in the 21st Century: ****Climate science and new directions**

**U.S. Department of the Interior**
**U.S. Geological Survey**

**CIRMOUNT  MTNCLIM 2008****Silverton, CO****June 9, 2008**Mark Myers, DirectorU.S. Geological Survey

## Humans become agents of environmental change

- Humans become agents of environmental change

*Ecological equilibrium disturbed*

**Human-induced changes on a global scale**
** **
**Approaching thresholds of ecosystems**
**Threats to earth resources**

## Night light produced largely from fossil fuels

*An index of human power in the environment*

- NASA

## The Human Effect

- Humans have already transformed 40-50% of  the ice-free land surface on earth.
- Humans now use 54% of the available fresh water on the globe.
- Humans now move far more sediment  - mainly through agriculture and construction activities - than the sum of all the natural processes operating on the surface of the planet.
*Humans are now an order of magnitude more important at moving sediment than the sum of all other natural processes operating on the surface of the planet.*

- Water Quality and Availability

**Water a limited resource, global issue**
**Diminished by **
**	****climate change**
**	****population growth**
**	****agricultural use**
** **

## USGS Science Strategy Directions

**Understanding Ecosystems and Predicting Ecosystem Change**

**Climate Variability and Change**

**Energy and Minerals for America’s Future**

**A National Hazards, Risk, and Resilience Assessment Program**

**The Role of Environment and Wildlife in Human Health**

**A Water Census of the United States**

**Data Integration and Beyond**

## Ecosystem Structure

- Rock and Soil

- Fungi

- Climate

- Animals and
- Vegetation

## Ecosystem Mapping and Analysis

- Understanding Earth Systems

- All earth resources interrelated.
- Climate change, population growth acceleratedifficulties, complexity
- USGS science strategy based on systems approach

## History of climate change science research and long-term monitoring 
Multi-disciplinary capabilities and scientific expertise across the landscape 
Capability to assess prehistoric, historic and current climate effects 
Ability to integrate broad arrays and types of information for effective decision-making

- USGS Strengths in Science, Monitoring, Information

- History of climate change science research and long-term monitoring
- Multi-disciplinary capabilities and scientific expertise across the landscape
- Capability to assess prehistoric, historic and current climate effects
- Ability to integrate broad arrays and types of information for effective decision-making

**John Wesley Powell, ****Director, 1881-94**

## Key Research Issues with a Warmer West

**Hydroclimatology**
-  Seasonal streamflow
-  Recharge variability & change
**Ecosystem ****and species responses**
-  Fire and insect outbreaks
-  Phenology

## During the past 50 years, long-term winter-spring warming trends have changed the West.

**Cayan et al., 2001**

## Warming already has driven significant hydroclimatic changes.

**Knowles et al.,2006**

**-2.2 std devs**
**LESS as snowfall**

**+1 std dev**
**MORE as snowfall**

- Less snow/more rain

**Mote*****, *****2003**

***TRENDS (1950-97) in ***
***April 1 snow-water content at ***
***western snow courses***

- Less spring snowpack

- Spring-pulse dates

- Earlier snowmelt runoff

**Stewart et al., 2005**

## ?

**Groundwater inputs to upland streams at risk...**
**Recharge to basin aquifers across mountain fronts may also change.**

## Model-Projected Changes in Annual Runoff, 2041-2060 

**Percentage change relative to 1900-1970 baseline. Any color indicates that >66% of models agree on sign of change; diagonal hatching indicates >90% agreement.**

**(After Milly, P.C.D., K.A. Dunne, A.V. Vecchia, Global pattern of trends in streamflow and****water availability in a changing climate, *****Nature*****, 438, 347-350, 2005.)**

**Model-Projected Changes in Annual Runoff, 2041-2060**** **

## Projections for Center of Mass Timing B1 scenario (+2.5°C)

- Projections for Center of Mass Timing B1 scenario (+2.5°C)

- Courtesy of Mike Dettinger

- ~15 to 35 days earlierby late 21st century

## Whitebark Pine Susceptibility to Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemics

**High-elevations in western US predicted to be continuously warmer in future decades**

**Hicke et al., JGR-Biogeosciences, 2006**

**Area of climate suitability projected to increase at highest elevations**
**And decrease at lower elevations**

## Long-term USGS research in the Sierra Nevada indicates that in forests that otherwise appear to be healthy:

- Long-term USGS research in the Sierra Nevada indicates that in forests that otherwise appear to be healthy:
-      • Tree mortality rates have doubled
-      • This doubling parallels temperature-driven increases in drought

**van Mantgem & Stephenson 2007**

## Changes in Wildfire and the Timing of Spring in Western US Forests, A.L. Westerling, H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, T.W. Swetnam. Science (2006) 

- Changes in Wildfire and the Timing of Spring in Western US Forests, A.L. Westerling, H.G. Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, T.W. Swetnam. *Science *(2006)

- R = 0.70

- # Fires > 400 ha vs. temp

## Spring index based on first leaf date for lilacs

*Syringa vulgaris*
- (common lilac)
*Syringa chinensis*
- (cloned lilac)

- 1984

**Schwartz and Reiter 2000 **
**International. J. Climatology**

## Observed Changes in Wildlife at Gothic, CO

**Inouye et al.,  PNAS 2000**

- Marmots emerging 38 days earlier than in 1977

- Robins arriving 14 days earlier

## Stationarity is Dead

- Stationarity - the concept and practice that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability

- Rocky Mtn. Biological Laboratory

- Photo courtesy of David Inouye

## A National Climate Effects Network -

**A National Climate Effects Network -**
**a proposal for a Systematic Application of Research Results**

-  A truly integrated National climate effect monitoring network capable of detecting and analyzing change at a range of temporal and spatial scales by building on existing capabilities
-  A scientific team focused on early detection and scientific analysis in support of adaptation or mitigation strategies
-  An information dissemination and decision support system for cost effective, scientifically rigorous management and policy decisions
-  The capacity for the next generation to protect and sustain our National trust resources through early detection of change

## Living for the Future

**Systems approach helps reveal nature of earth systems**
**Climate change is particularly evident in mountain environments**
**We are all at risk**
**Many near-term decisions will influence**** the future health of the planet**