# Presentation: 537915

## 2005 Hurricane Season

**2005 Hurricane Season**
**Impacts on U.S. Navy**

- 60th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference
- March 2006

- Mr. Robert Winokur
- Technical Director
- Oceanographer of the Navy

## Slide 2

## Slide 3

## Slide 4

## KATRINA Impacts on NAVO

**Katrina resulted in significant loss of communications, server outages **
**   ****and widely dispersed personnel (NAVO)**
**MSRC remained operational**
**Loss of communications and integral **
**   ****personnel resulted in the following product **
**   ****disruption:**
** ****Ocean Models**
** ****Ice Models**
** ****Tide Models**
** ****Wave Models**
** ****Unique Navy Classified Support**
**Most model support returned to operational**
**   ****status within two weeks**

## NAVO Receives Backup from

- FNMOC and NOAA during KATRINA

**MCSST backup from NOAA NESDIS**
**FNMOC assumed CNMOC central**
**   ****communication and command & control functions and backed up NAVO  high priority Ocean products until**
**   ****normal operations were restored:**
**WW3 substituted for WAM**
**Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) provided a limited replacement for MODAS**

## Impact of Removing Navy Models from the Hurricane Katrina Consensus Forecast

**The Navy NOGAPS and GFDN models correctly predicted the track **_**and**_** timing of Hurricane Katrina prior to other major models used in the 5-member consensus forecast**

_**CONU**_** = NGPS, GFDN, GFS, GFDL, UKMO**
_**CON3**_** = GFS, GFDL, UKMO**

## Overall 2005 North AtlanticTropical Cyclone Model Performance

- Overall 2005 North AtlanticTropical Cyclone Model Performance

## Navy’s Research and Development Efforts 

** ****Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) ) system developed by Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Monterey to optimize the forecasting process.**

**  ****Operational Users include:**
**   ****Joint Typhoon Warning Center**
**   ****National Hurricane Center**
**   ****Central Pacific Hurricane Center**

**Navy’s Research and Development Efforts **
**Enabling Factor for Tropical Meteorology**

-  **Navy sponsored R&D includes:**
-   **Tropical Cyclone Genesis**
**  ****Probabilistic Prediction of High Impact Weather**
**  ****Multi-Scale Tropical Dynamics**
** ****Developmental efforts in Ocean Coupling and Data Assimilation directly **
**  ****enable TC track and intensity forecasts**

## Navy’s Partnerships

**Enable Tropical Met Capabilities **

-  **Ongoing commitment to Joint Typhoon Warning Center**
** ****Naval Officer assigned to TPC/NHC**
** ****Naval Research Laboratory modeling initiatives**
** ****Tri-Agency community modeling **
**   ****initiative**
**  ****Committee for Operational **
**    ****Processing Centers (COPC)**
**  ****NPOESS satellite **

## Value of Remote SensingNavy Commitment to NPOESS

- Multispectral
- Imagery

- ...combined with
- Microwaves...

- NPOESS

** ... ****Improves Tropical Cyclone Forecasts**
**& Reduced Impact on Maritime Forces**

## Lessons Learned

**Operational / Production Centers must ensure “back-up” capability and capacity**
**           ****-  computer processing**
**           ****-  communications**
**           ****-  personnel**
**Comprehensive personnel ****accountability plan**
**Maintenance of agency mission unique requirements**
**Partnerships are key to meeting today’s and tomorrow’s requirements in Tropical Meteorology and specifically Tropical Cyclone forecasting.**

## Questions?

**Questions?**

## Backup Slides

## Overall 2005 Western PacificTropical Cyclone Model Performance