# Presentation: 739156

## 60th INTERDEPARTMENTAL

**HURRICANE CONFERENCE**

***“******Hurricane Season 2006: Building on the ***
***Historic 2005 Season”***

**March 20 - 24, 2006**

**Notes:**
This slide should be up when the Federal Coordinator walks to the podium.

## ---

**Mr. Samuel P. Williamson**
**Federal Coordinator for Meteorology**

**CLOSING / WRAPUP REMARKS  ****--- ****60th INTERDEPARTMENTAL****HURRICANE CONFERENCE**

**Notes:**
  Welcome to the closing session of the 59th IHC
  Fantastic conference...
  Great location and hosts...
  Mayor Peyton and his staff,
  Craig Fugate and his great banquet talk 
  Becky Shaeffer and her staff here at the Radisson River Walk Hotel...absolutely outstanding support
  Excellent presentations 
  Insightful discussions 
  Lively collaborations, exchanges of information, and interaction taking place at the beaks and after conference hours
  Exactly what we had hoped for

NEXT SLIDE

## OBJECTIVE RESULTS
EXPECTED OUTCOME RESULTS
CHALLENGES AND THE WAY AHEAD
ACTION ITEMS
FEEDBACK
SPECIAL RECOGNITION
LOCATION FOR FUTURE IHCs
THANK YOU

**EXPECTED OUTCOME RESULTS**
**CHALLENGES AND THE WAY AHEAD**
**ACTION ITEMS**
**FEEDBACK**
**SPECIAL RECOGNITION**
**LOCATION FOR FUTURE IHCs**
**THANK YOU**

**Overview**

**Notes:**
Here’s a quick look at what I will cover in the next few minutes as we close this year’s conference.

## Review the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning program from end-to-end and update the National Hurricane Operations Plan for 2006
Evaluate lessons learned from the 2005 hurricane season, with a focus on Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma
Examine the results of the Joint Hurricane Test bed (JHT) as a model for transitioning successful research results into operations
Review the federal priorities for tropical cyclone research and development for the next decade, to include relevant social science issues
Examine the needs and requirements for future tropical cyclone surveillance and reconnaissance observations
Evaluate changes in forecast and warning messages needed to improve public awareness, preparedness, and response 

**Evaluate lessons learned from the 2005 hurricane season, with a focus on Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma**
**Examine the results of the Joint Hurricane Test bed (JHT) as a model for transitioning successful research results into operations**
**Review the federal priorities for tropical cyclone research and development for the next decade, to include relevant social science issues**
**Examine the needs and requirements for future tropical cyclone surveillance and reconnaissance observations**
**Evaluate changes in forecast and warning messages needed to improve public awareness, preparedness, and response**

**Conference Objectives**

**Notes:**
I believe we accomplished the overarching objectives we set for this 59th IHC.  
We reviewed the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning program, and are ready to update the National Hurricane Operations Plan for 2005.
We evaluated lessons learned from the 2004 season, with a focus on Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne which made landfall in Florida.
We evaluated the Joint Hurricane Test bed (JHT) as a model for transitioning successful research results into operations and identify future research needs.
We validated the ongoing efforts to develop a framework for a comprehensive R&D plan which documents and prioritizes research needs based on the required operational capability and establishes a roadmap ahead, and with your inputs we are now ready to move forward to complete that plan.  Thanks for the great input.   
NEXT SLIDE

## Specific changes/updates to the 2005 National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP)
Leading to publication of the 2006 NHOP
Additional inputs into the draft OFCM-sponsored Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones
Aiding in completion of a plan which will set the Federal goals and priorities for tropical cyclone research for the next 10 years

**Leading to publication of the 2006 NHOP**
**Additional inputs into the draft OFCM-sponsored *****Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones***
**Aiding in completion of a plan which will set the Federal goals and priorities for tropical cyclone research for the next 10 years**

**Expected Outcomes**

**Notes:**
- The expected outcomes of the 60th IHC are:
  -- Specific changes/updates to the 2005 National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP)
       --- Leading to publication of the 2006 NHOP
  -- Additional inputs into the draft OFCM-sponsored Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones
      --- Aiding in completion of a plan which will set the Federal goals and priorities for tropical cyclone research for the next 10 years

## Specific immediate actions that can be taken to bridge the gap between the hurricane forecast and warning message preparer and the message receiver to improve public awareness, preparedness, and response
Goal: get people out of harm’s way to save lives and reduce injuries; protect property and resources
A list of current and promising surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities that will serve as an initial framework for the development of future tropical cyclone observational needs and requirements

**Goal: get people out of harm’s way to save lives and reduce injuries; protect property and resources**
**A list of current and promising surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities that will serve as an initial framework for the development of future tropical cyclone observational needs and requirements**

**Expected Outcomes**

**Notes:**
- The other expected outcomes of the 60th IHC are:
  -- Specific immediate actions that can be taken to bridge the gap between the hurricane forecast and warning message preparer and the message receiver and improve public awareness, preparedness, and response
      --- Goal: get people out of harm’s way to save lives and reduce injuries; protect property and resources
  -- A list of current and promising surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities that will serve as an initial framework for the development of future tropical cyclone observational needs and requirements

** ****Modeling / data assimilation / computing power**
** ****Reconnaissance and observing**
** ****Improved forecast accuracy for:**
** ****Storm intensity / structure**
** ****Storm track**
** ****Storm surge**
** ****Inland flooding**
** ****Information dissemination (technology, message)**
** ****Incorporating results of social science research into**
**	****operations**

**Challenges and the Way Ahead**

**Notes:**
As we heard many times this week, we still have big challenges facing us as we work to continue to improve the Nation’s hurricane forecast and warning program.  
I think we can agree we still need improved forecast accuracy for hurricane: 

NEXT SLIDE

## 58TH IHC Action Item:  Develop an interagency strategic plan for tropical cyclone research
Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR) will further refine draft Strategic R&D plan
Publish by September 30, 2006
59TH IHC Action Items
Develop a Strategic Plan for Improved Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance Systems (ITCRS) (manned, unmanned, spaced-based, etc.)
Publish by March 31, 2007
Complete the study entitled, “Warning Messages:  Exploring Customer Understanding” by 06/05 and then develop a path ahead to implement recommendations from the study to improve understanding and use of tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings
Completed June 2005

**Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR) will further refine draft Strategic R&D plan**
**Publish by September 30, 2006**
**59****TH**** IHC Action Items**
**Develop a Strategic Plan for Improved Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance Systems (ITCRS) (manned, unmanned, spaced-based, etc.)**
**Publish by March 31, 2007**
**Complete the study entitled, “Warning Messages:  Exploring Customer Understanding” by 06/05 and then develop a path ahead to implement recommendations from the study to improve understanding and use of tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings**
**Completed June 2005**

**Action Items / Next Steps**

**Notes:**
  The next two slides show the overarching action items we picked up on during this week.
  If you believe there are others, please let us know now as we go over the ones we have captured here.
  The actions we captured are.... 

## 59TH IHC Action Items
Facilitate bringing together the web site owners from NOAA (e.g., HRD, NHC), Navy, etc. to improve linkages for supporting R&D
Complete by October 31, 2006
Facilitate bringing together the representatives from the provider, user, and communications communities to develop a plan to exploit current and developing  technologies to improve tropical cyclone and hurricane forecasts and warning information dissemination
Completed (1st Workgroup Session at 60th IHC)

**Facilitate bringing together the web site owners from NOAA (e.g., HRD, NHC), Navy, etc. to improve linkages for supporting R&D**
**Complete by October 31, 2006**
**Facilitate bringing together the representatives from the provider, user, and communications communities to develop a plan to exploit current and developing  technologies to improve tropical cyclone and hurricane forecasts and warning information dissemination**
**Completed (1****st**** Workgroup Session at 60****th**** IHC)**

**Action Items / Next Steps**

**Notes:**
  Continuing on, we have these actions....

## 60th IHC Action Items:
Revise NHOP and published by May 15, 2006
Additional funding should be solicited to allow inclusion of social science research into the activities of the Joint Hurricane Testbed without compromising current projects
NWS should work with diverse user groups to develop and test message format modifications
It is recommended that, rather than try to modify the current system, researchers start from scratch and develop new formats and products based on the latest communication techniques
Two types of messages should be considered: technical and actionable

**Revise NHOP and published by May 15, 2006**
**Additional funding should be solicited to allow inclusion of social science research into the activities of the Joint Hurricane Testbed without compromising current projects**
**NWS should work with diverse user groups to develop and test message format modifications**
**It is recommended that, rather than try to modify the current system, researchers start from scratch and develop new formats and products based on the latest communication techniques**
**Two types of messages should be considered: **_**technical**_** and **_**actionable**_

**Action Items / Next Steps**

**Notes:**
  Continuing on, we have these actions....

## 60th IHC Action Items:
Empirical research should be encouraged and supported to develop and test modifications to current terminology used to define levels of hurricane threat (e.g., watch, warning, CAT 1-5, etc.)
NHC should review its timing cycle for better coordination with end-users, especially for media news cycles
The OFCM will coordinate bringing together the appropriate federal agencies to begin the process of reviewing and improving the National hurricane warning “system”
All elements of the full end-to-end “system” (e.g., protocols, responsibilities, NGOs, communications, etc.)

**Empirical research should be encouraged and supported to develop and test modifications to current terminology used to define levels of hurricane threat (e.g., watch, warning, CAT 1-5, etc.)**
**NHC should review its timing cycle for better coordination with end-users, especially for media news cycles**
**The OFCM will coordinate bringing together the appropriate federal agencies to begin the process of reviewing and improving the National hurricane warning “system”**
**All elements of the full end-to-end “system” (e.g., protocols, responsibilities, NGOs, communications, etc.)**

**Action Items / Next Steps**

**Notes:**
  Continuing on, we have these actions....

## http://www.ofcm.gov/

**http://www.ofcm.gov/**

**Presentations and other material will be available on the OFCM web site shortly after the IHC.**
**Click on “Special Projects” and navigate to the 60****th**** IHC.**

**Presentation Availability**

**Notes:**
At the conclusion of the conference, we will make available to you, on our web site all the presentations and other materials you’ve seen here.  Our web address is show here.
We plan to post this material within three weeks following the conference.

NEXT SLIDE

## FEEDBACK

**Robert.Dumont@noaa.gov**
**Mark.Welshinger@noaa.gov**
**(301) 427-2002**

**FEEDBACK**
**IS**
** ****WELCOME**

**Notes:**
As always, feedback is always welcome and encouraged

Pass to either Bob Dumont or myself

Email addresses and our phone number are shown here 

NEXT SLIDE

## Participants
Session Leaders / Moderators / Chairpersons / Panelists / Rapporteurs
 OFCM / STC Staff 
Riverview Plaza Hotel, Mobile
Mayor Jones’ Office, City of Mobile, AL
Media Support

**Session Leaders / Moderators / Chairpersons / Panelists / Rapporteurs**
** ****OFCM / STC Staff **
**Riverview Plaza Hotel, Mobile**
**Mayor Jones’ Office, City of Mobile, AL**
**Media Support**

**SPECIAL RECOGNITION**

**Notes:**
  A sincere thank you to our participants...you make this conference!!
  And a special thanks to all of our conference leaders, moderators, chairpersons, and all the other folks that helped make this conference run so smoothly.
  Thanks for the fine support of our co-host.... The Oceanographer of the Navy and the additional assistance they provided from Jacksonville NAS public affairs office by Pat Dooling, and assistance to our tech support staff by Kelly Howard. 
  My whole hearted thanks to Bob Dumont and my entire OFCM and supporting STC staff ...a huge amount of hard work and long hours went into this conference and it certainly paid off ....thanks!
  Thanks to the Radisson Riverwalk Hotel staff who worked every request we had for them with an absolutely prompt and professional attitude.
Becky Shaeffer and her staff for conference coordination help
Phil Shake for audio visual support.
  Thanks to Dawn Erlich, Carolyn Serey, and Carmelitta Riley for registration support
  I want to especially thank the Mayor’s office for supporting our conference and extending us a super warm and sunny welcome to Jacksonville.
  And last but definitely not least...a very special thanks to The Weather Channel for their support of our conference, as well as the gracious support from the Jacksonville media.  
NEXT SLIDE

## 61st IHC is tentatively slated for Tampa, FL, in March 2007.  Cohosted by NOAA/AOC and 53rd WRS. 
62st IHC is tentatively slated for New Orleans, in March 2007.  Cohosted by U.S. Navy.

**62****st**** IHC is tentatively slated for New Orleans, in March 2007.  Cohosted by U.S. Navy.**

**Location of Future IHCs**

**Notes:**
Next year we have set our sights on New Orleans.  We look forward to yet another successful conference.

And on to Tampa in 2007.

NEXT SLIDE

## Thank you for attending and participating in this conference!

**Thank you for attending and participating in this conference!**

**Have a safe trip home...**

**And Thanks Again!**

**Thank You!**

**Notes:**
  Have a safe trip home and again THANKS for making this 59th IHC a success !!!

## Slide 17

## BACKUPS

**BACKUPS**

** ****Modeling / data assimilation**
** ****Reconnaissance and observing**
** ****Improved forecast accuracy for:**
** ****Storm intensity / structure**
** ****Storm track**
** ****Storm surge**
** ****Inland flooding**
** ****Information dissemination (technology, message)**
** ****Incorporating results of social science research into**
**	****operations**

**Challenges and the Way Ahead**

**Notes:**
As we heard many times this week, we still have big challenges facing us as we work to continue to improve the Nation’s hurricane forecast and warning program.  
I think we can agree we still need improved forecast accuracy for hurricane: 

NEXT SLIDE

## Tropical Cyclone Track

**Tropical Cyclone Track**

**Notes:**
As we have been briefed several times this week, we have been successful in improving our ability to forecast storm tracks.
But, as shown in this example, with average storm track errors above 100 miles at 48 hours, we still have room for improvement.

## Tropical Cyclone Intensity

**Tropical Cyclone Intensity**

**Notes:**
  Meanwhile, as shown in this example, we still have much room for intensity forecast improvement.
  We heard this week there is work in progress that will help bring about more improvements.
  Additionally, this reinforces the need to move forward with developing a coordinated strategic research plan which builds on the on going research efforts, throughout our community.   

## Example: Using Satellite Data

**Example: Using Satellite Data**

**Notes:**
  We have seen examples this week where improved data assimilation has made dramatic improvements in our tropical cyclone forecasts, as seen here with direct assimilation of microwave radiances.
  We need to prepare now to take advantage of planned data sources becoming available in the near future through improved data assimilation schemes, and obtain the infrastructure required to handle the increased data amounts.

  NEXT SLIDE

.  

## Test Beds

**EMC**

**NCO**

**Research**

**Operations**

**Delivery**

**Launch list**

**Performance Criteria**** **

**Transition to Operations**

**Requirements**

**EMC**

- 1

- 2

- 3

- 4

- 5

**NCEP Transition to Operations – DRAFT February 2005**

- OPS

**Life Cycle**
**Support**

**Service**
**Centers**

**JCSDA**
**JHT**
**DTC**
**CTB**

- 1. **Code or Algorithm**
**Development**

**2.** **Interface with**
**Operational Codes**

**3. Level I**
**Preliminary Testing**
**Research Quality**

**   ****4. Level II**
**  ****Preliminary Testing**
**  ****Experimental Quality**

**5. Pre-Implementation**
**Testing**

**Concept of Operations**

**Effort**

**Applied**
**Research**

**Notes:**
  Additionally, we heard several times during this conference that transitioning R&D to operations requires careful planning and consistent application of resources over the long term.
  I could not agree more.

  NEXT SLIDE 

## Example: Using Satellite Data

**Example: Using Satellite Data**

**Notes:**
  We have seen examples this week where improved data assimilation has made dramatic improvements in our tropical cyclone forecasts, as seen here with direct assimilation of microwave radiances.
  We need to prepare now to take advantage of planned data sources becoming available in the near future through improved data assimilation schemes, and obtain the infrastructure required to handle the increased data amounts.

  NEXT SLIDE

.  

## Test Beds

**EMC**

**NCO**

**Research**

**Operations**

**Delivery**

**Launch list**

**Performance Criteria**** **

**Transition to Operations**

**Requirements**

**EMC**

- 1

- 2

- 3

- 4

- 5

**NCEP Transition to Operations – DRAFT February 2005**

- OPS

**Life Cycle**
**Support**

**Service**
**Centers**

**JCSDA**
**JHT**
**DTC**
**CTB**

- 1. **Code or Algorithm**
**Development**

**2.** **Interface with**
**Operational Codes**

**3. Level I**
**Preliminary Testing**
**Research Quality**

**   ****4. Level II**
**  ****Preliminary Testing**
**  ****Experimental Quality**

**5. Pre-Implementation**
**Testing**

**Concept of Operations**

**Effort**

**Applied**
**Research**

**Notes:**
  Additionally, we heard several times during this conference that transitioning R&D to operations requires careful planning and consistent application of resources over the long term.
  I could not agree more.

  NEXT SLIDE