# Presentation: 130113

## National Science FoundationActivities Related to Climate Change

- Dr. Margaret Leinen
- Assistant Director for Geosciences

## National Science Foundation

- Seeks to promote and advance progress in U.S. science and engineering through support of research and education activities

## Mechanisms for Setting Priorities and Determining Funding

**Overarching Goals**

**National and International**
**Scientific Planning**

**Community Workshops**

**Interagency Collaboration**
**And Discussion**

**Solicitations/**
**Announcements**

**Peer Review and**
**Program Evaluation**

## Mechanisms for Review of Science and Funding Effectiveness

- Peer review of publications
- Triennial review of programs by external Committee of Visitors.
- Agency-wide review of programs through GPRA process

## Achieving CCRI/ USGCRP Key Program Goals

**Enhancing the science base to improve decision support tools**

**Improving decision making and decision support tools**

**Enhancing observation and monitoring systems**

**Enhancing exploratory (discovery-driven) research**

**NSF’s**
**Role**

## NSF Role in USGCRP & CCRIIdeas

- NSF focuses on understanding fundamental processes through support of basic research.
- NSF programs encourage interdisciplinary activities with a focus on Earth system processes and the consequences of change.

**Notes:**
Need to double check overview with notes from meeting-is full intent provided or do we need to supply another slide about NSF’s role, e.g., 1 of 2 agencies that covers all of the global change topics
NSF’s role-process understanding, sustained, long-term investments-physical and intellectual tools
Strong interagency partnerships
Concept transfer
International collaborations

## NSF Role in USGCRP & CCRITools

- NSF initiatives encourage the development of new tools.
- NSF promotes the transfer
- 	of technology and
- 	ideas to other
- 	agencies.

## NSF Role in USGCRP & CCRIPeople

- NSF supports the academic research enterprise and fosters of a community of scientists interested in and capable of state- of-the-art global change research.
- NSF requires that all PIs address the “broader impacts” of their research.
- NSF explicitly funds environmental education/outreach through Education and Human Resources (EHR) ($50M/year).

## USGCRP Program Areas at NSF

- Climate Variability and Change
- Climate models and simulations
- Paleoclimate/Paleoenvironment
- Atmospheric Composition
- Water Cycle
- Carbon Cycle
- Climate/Ecosystem Interactions
- Human Impacts

**Observation/**
**Monitoring**
**Systems**

**Science/**
**Technology**
**Interactions**

## USGCRP Program Budgets

| Program Title | FY02
Enacted ($ Million) | FY03
Requested ($ Million) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Climate Variability and Change | 74.6 | 71.0 |
| Atmospheric Composition | 16.7 | 16.7 |
| Water Cycle | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Carbon Cycle | 22.9 | 24.7 |
| Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems | 30.1 | 30.4 |
| Human Dimensions of Climate Change | 13.7 | 10.2 |
| Paleoenvironment/ Paleoclimate | 17.5 | 17.5 |

## CCRI Programs

| Program Title | FY02
Enacted 
($ Million) | FY03
Requested 
($ Million) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Black Carbon Measurement | 0 | 1 |
| Sensor Development | 0 | 2 |
| Carbon Fluxes & Cycles | 0 | 7 |
| Decision Making under Uncertainty | 0 | 5 |
|  |  |  |

## NSF Programs Directly Related to USGCRP and CCRI

| Program Title | Estimated
FY03  ($ Million) |
| --- | --- |
| Climate Variability and Change | * |
| Atmospheric Composition | 37.0 |
| Water Cycle | 6.5 |
| Carbon Cycle | 7.3 |
| Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems | 18.0 |
| Human Dimensions of Global Change | 5.5 |

## Discussion points for themes

- Thematic/programmatic activities
- Approximate FY03 Funding
- Turning Points/Major Scientific Contributions
- Short-term Projects
- Interagency Collaborations
- Idea Transfer to Operational Programs
- International Collaborations
- Directly-related Activities
- Supporting Activities

## Climate Variability and Change

## Climate Variability and Change

- World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE)
- Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)
- Ocean Observation, Data Assimilation and Modeling (OODAM)
- Earth System History (ESH)
- Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (CMAP)
- Solar Influences (SOLAR)
- Arctic Systems Sciences (ARCSS)
- Regional Research Institutes (IAI)

## WOCE

- Supports research aimed at:
- determining a snapshot of the 3-D ocean density structure, circulation, heat and fresh-water budgets;
- quantifying oceanic heat transport;
- improving estimates of air-sea heat exchange;
- inferring the spatial distribution of small-scale mixing in the thermocline and deep ocean
- FYO3 Funding:  $2.0M
- WOCE funding is ramping down from investments of ~$15M/year in the 1990s

## CLIVAR

- Supports research on natural climate variability and the impacts of climate change on natural variability, particularly for processes involving the coupled ocean-atmosphere system.
- Includes studies of:
- climate predictability;
- climate processes, including those responsible for and modulating major modes of climate variability, e.g, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation; and,
- climate processes using short and long-term field observations.
- FY03 Funding:  $25.0M

## Ocean Observations, Data Assimilation and Modeling

- Supports, through the National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP):
- large scale ocean modeling and data assimilation projects;
- technological development of new sensors and observing platforms; and,
- prototype research observatories.
- FY03 Funding:  $7.8M

## Earth System History (ESH)

- Provides a long-time baseline from which to establish and understand climate variability and its impact beyond human influence.
- Analysis based on:
- Tree rings
- Ice cores
- Sediment cores
- FY03 Funding:  $17.5M

## Climate Modeling Analysis & Prediction (CMAP)

- Supports research on climate system modeling.
- Includes:
- Community Climate System Model (CCSM)
- Climate Simulation Laboratory (CSL)
- FY03 Funding:  $16.2M

## SOLAR

- Promotes understanding of the mechanisms and possible
- 	amplification factors by
- 	which solar variability
- 	affects climate.
- FY03 Funding:  $8.4M

## Arctic Climate System Science (ARCSS)

- Promotes research into the physical, geological, chemical, biological and socio-cultural processes of the Arctic system that interact with the total Earth system and thus contribute to or are influenced by global change
- Advances the scientific basis for predicting environmental change on a season-to-century time scale, and for formulating policy options in response to the anticipated impacts of global change on humans and societal support systems.
- FY03 Funding:  $8.0M

## Regional Research Institutes

- Inter-American Institute (IAI)
- Develops understanding of the integrated impact of present and future global change on regional and continental environments in the Americas
- Promotes collaborative research and informed action on all levels
- FY03 Funding:  $2.7M
- Asia-Pacific Network (APN)
- Collaborative effort with Japan

## Short-Term Projects

- WOCE:
- Hydrographic atlases of the Pacific, Indian, Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Each atlas will contain between 265 and 310 plates each and around 1500 copies will be produced and distributed worldwide.
- Publication of all WOCE results in conjunction with the final international WOCE Science Conference hosted by the U.S. in November 2002

## WOCE Survey

- 10 years of observations
- Data assimilation into a global, dynamically consistent, gridded  data set
- First of its kind for the ocean

## Short-Term Projects

- OODAM:
- 	Ocean reanalysis will deliver global ocean state estimations for a 50+ year period (1950-present) on a 1 degree grid and for a 10 year period (1993-2002) on a 1⁄4 degree grid.

## Short-Term Projects

- ESH:
- Online maps of regional high frequency variability in Arctic climate based on summer temperatures over the past 500 to 2,000 years at annual resolution.
- Online geo-referenced high resolution maps of surface temperatures over the Holocene.
- Online high-resolution records of interannual to century scale climate variability for the extremes of millennial scale climate variability.
- COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meterorology, Ionosphere and Climate):
- As a follow-on to the successful NSF funded proof-of-concept project -- GPS/MET

## Short-Term Projects

- CMAP/CLIVAR:
- Reducing Uncertainties -- Climate Process Teams (CLIVAR scientists working with CCSM and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) centers and scientists) on focused research to:
- understand the reasons for the large differences in climate sensitivities of these models through analyses and modeling of major feedback processes, such as clouds, and
- improve mixing parameterizations in ocean models.
- New observational programs to understand:
- key choke points in the ocean such as the Indonesian throughflow and the overflows connecting the Arctic basin and the North Atlantic, and
- the variability of the Mid-Ocean Circulation in collaboration with European Scientists.
- Limits of predictability studies

## Turning Points/Major Scientific Contributions

- WOCE:
- Widespread use of the profiling float technology to characterize the subsurface circulation and upper ocean heat and salt content of the ocean.
- This technology has now been adopted by NOAA  for the ARGO component of their operational ocean observing system

## Observing the ocean with Autonomous Profiling Floats

- An idea and an engineering project funded by NSF (and ONR) in the early 1980’s to measure ocean current velocity at depth (ca. 1 km) provided the tools for a plan to sample the upper 2 km of the ocean continuously

## Turning Points

- WOCE:
- Discovery of enhanced mixing in the deep ocean over rough topography like the mid-Atlantic ridge which has forced a re-examination of how the advective-diffusive balance controls the ocean’s stratification

## Hotspots for deep ocean mixing associated with rough topography

- Estimated global tidal dissipation showing high dissipation rates of tidal energy over rough topography and in shallow seas (red color). Topex/Poseidon altimetry data were assimilated into a shallow water equation model for over 200 orbit cycles to get elevation and volume transport fields from which fluxes and dissipation rates can be derived. Negative values (blue) are unphysical and are indicative of inaccuracies in the data and assimilation procedure.  Egbert and Ray (JGR, 2001)

## Turning Points

- ESH:
- The latter 20th century is anomalous in the context of the past millenium.  The 20th century warming counters a millennial-scale cooling trend which is consistent with long-term astronomical forcing.  (Mann et al., 1999)

## Turning Points

- Reanalysis:
- NSF funded a successful pilot project at the Center for Ocean-Land Atmosphere Studies (COLA) in 1991. This led to operational weather and climate prediction centers providing reanalyzed atmospheric data sets spanning several decades. Reanalysis is now being done by oceanographic modeling community.
- CCSM:
- The first climate system model to successfully simulate 300 years of climate without artificial “flux corrections”.  This set a new standard for climate models since it was the first high-end climate model developed collaboratively by the community.

## Turning Points

- GPS/MET:
- Pioneered the use of GPS signals to obtain inexpensive vertical profiles of temperature and moisture across the globe with high spatial and temporal resolution.  Now being tested as an operational system by NOAA, USAF, and US Navy (COSMIC).

## COSMIC vs. Radiosonde

- Red dots are current radiosonde sites. Green dots are COSMIC soundings in a day.

## Turning Points

- ARCSS:  Models predict summertime disappearance of permanent ice pack by as early as 2050.

## Turning Points

- IAI:
- Place-based science funded a network of 6 PIs studying the biodiversity of southern South America.  They found that the land-use changes from four countries had a larger impact on declining biodiversity than did climate change.

## Interagency Collaborations

- CLIVAR and WOCE:
- interagency and international efforts under the sponsorship of WCRP. Specific examples of projects funded by NSF and other agencies include Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate Processes (EPIC) and the Global Ocean Hydrographic Survey.
- OODAM:
- projects are funded in collaborations with other agencies under NOPP
- ESH:
- NOAA participation in annual competition

## Interagency Collaborations

- CMAP:
- CCSM co-funded by NSF and DOE with major *ad hoc* contributions from NASA and NOAA.  Advisory Board (CAB) is a multi-agency body.
- COSMIC is interagency (NASA, NOAA, AF, ONR) and international (Taiwan)
- CSL:
- managed by NSF for PIs supported by any of the global change agencies

## Idea Transfer

- WOCE/TOGA surface drifters  Global Drifter Program
- WOCE ocean profiling floats (ALACE)  ARGO
- Reanalysis NCEP and other reanalysis projects
- GPS /MET COSMIC

## International Collaborations

- CLIVAR -- North Atlantic circulation study cooperative with European Commission
- Past Global Changes Program (PAGES) --operated under umbrella of IGBP
- COSMIC (CMAP) coordinated with Taiwan
- CCSM (CMAP) coordinated with Japan
- IAI -- Every project requires the involvement of four IAI members

## Atmospheric Composition

- Phaplu, Nepal

- March 29, 2000

- Taken in Nepal during INDOEX. The top picture is a view to the North and the Himalayan Mts.   Bottom slide is view to the south with heavy pollution from the Southern Asia.

## Atmospheric Composition

- Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program
- Polar Ozone Depletion
- Ultraviolet Radiation Effects

## Program Activities

- Individual Grants for theoretical, laboratory and field investigations of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry.
- FY03 Funding:  $11.0M
- Interagency and international field campaigns for process studies (Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE), Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox (TOPSE), Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX)).
- FY03 Funding:  $4.0M
- Polar Ozone and Long Term UV Measurements (Primarily Antarctica).
- FY03 Funding:  $2.0M

## Goals for Atmospheric Composition Studies

- Understand the role of atmospheric chemistry in the radiation budget of the earth, e.g., greenhouse gases, stratospheric ozone, aerosols, and cloud radiative forcing;
- Provide information about the processes leading to the emissions and atmospheric deposition of biologically important chemicals, e.g., acid deposition, nutrient cycling, biomass burning, carbon cycle, etc.;
- Understand how natural and anthropogenic emissions interact with the atmospheric chemical system to affect regional air quality.

## Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX)

- An Inter-Agency & International Program:
- USA: NSF, DOE, NOAA & NASA
- Europe: EUMETSAT, EU, CNRS, MPI, KNMI
- INDIA : ISRO; CSIR

## Short-Term Projects

- The role aerosols play in clouds, hydrologic cycle processes and aerosol nucleation
- Urban area effects on regional and global scale photochemistry-oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere
- Trace constituents exchange between the atmosphere and the terrestrial and marine biosphere

## Turning Points

- 7-year record of O2/N2 ratio measurements at remote sites representing different latitudes. O2/N2 data are from the Bender and Keeling research groups, the CO2 measurements at the same sites were made by Tans et al.

- In combination atmospheric O2/N2 and CO2 provides a powerful tool to study the fate of fossil fuel CO2 since one can discriminate between uptake via inorganic dissolution in the oceans (no oxygen release) and photosynthesis (oxygen release).  Records reveals significant interannual variability in the magnitude of the terrestrial biospheric sink for CO2.

## Turning Points

**INDOEX:**
- Aerosols in the polluted regions of the Indian Ocean scatter incoming solar radiation and reduce the energy absorbed by the ocean surface by up to 10 %.  Experimental data in the figure indicate the aerosols result in negative forcing twice as much as the positive greenhouse gas forcing.  However, even with surface cooling there is a net heating of the atmosphere which has very important implications for the water cycle and atmospheric dynamics.

## Atmospheric Composition-Directly-Related Activities

- Core grant and NCAR programs in Atmospheric Chemistry:  $15.0 M
- Core programs in Office of Polar Programs and Divisions of Environmental Biology, Oceanography and Earth Sciences that deal with atmosphere and biosphere interactions and surface exchange processes:  $20.0 M
- Science and Technology Center C4 at UCSD (Ends in FY02):  $2.0 M

## Atmospheric Composition-Supporting Activities

- Observational Facilities  Programs (Aircraft, Radars, Surface and Sounding Measurements) for Field Studies:  $20.0M
- Computational Facilities at NCAR and the Partnerships for Advanced Computational Infrastructure (PACI) centers that provide computer time and support of modeling and simulation programs and projects:  $10.0M

## Global Water Cycle 

- Global Water Cycle

## Water Cycle

- Water Cycle Research
- Water & Energy:  Atmospheric, Vegetative, and Earth Interactions (WEAVE)

## Water Cycle Research

- Supports basic research on water cycle processes, including the development of new measurement techniques or strategies
- Four focus areas for FY03:
- -Pathways and interfaces at various scales that connect moisture reservoirs:
- -Causes of water cycle variability
- -Prediction of water cycle variations, including the frequency of extreme events
- -Linkages between the water cycle and geochemical 	constituents
- FY03 Funding:  $7.3M

## WEAVE

- Seeks to improve understanding of the Earth's hydrologic and energy cycles to support better assessments of the potential impact of human activities on those cycles and on the climate system in general.
- Overall objective:  provide the understanding of water and energy cycles that will allow better representation in global climate models
- FY03 Funding:  $5.4M

## Water CycleDirectly-Related Activities

- Hydrologic Science
- FY03 Funding:  $2.5M
- Science and Technology Center
- FY03 Funding:  $4.0M
- Water Cycle Across Scales
- Proposed

## Science and Technology Center SAHRA

- Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA)
- Objective:  promote sustainable management of water resources in semi-arid regions through stakeholder-driven interdisciplinary research, aggressive public outreach, and strong education initiatives

## SAHRA Science Focus Areas

- 1.  Measuring snowpack above the treeline for improved predictions of runoff & recharge
- 2.  Modeling recharge and salt transport in ephemeral and intermittent water courses
- 3.  Understanding water, energy, and nutrient fluxes in riparian areas
- 4.  Integrating physical models with policy tools for decision-makers
- 5.  Using decision support models and policy analysis for improved water resource management

## Water Cycle Across Scales

- Part of the NCAR program
- Objective:  understand how water vapor, precipitation, and land surface hydrology interact across scales to define the hydrological cycle
- Results will be used to improve weather prediction models and climate models

## Interagency Collaborations

***SAHRA Partners***

## International Collaborations

- WEAVE:
- Contributes to goals of international programs:
- Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX)
- Biological Aspects of Hydrological Cycle (BAHC)

## Carbon Cycle

## Carbon Cycle

- U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS)
- FY03 Funding:  $2.5M
- Integrated Carbon Cycle Research Program (ICCRP)
- FY03 Funding:  $11.0M
- CCRI Initiative -- Black Carbon, Sensors, Carbon Fluxes
- FY03 Funding:  $10.0M

## JGOFS

- Current activities include:
- Maintain and promote time-series investigations at Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Station (BATS) and Hawaiian Ocean Time-series station (HOT)
- Synthesis activities to incorporate data from process studies, *in situ* and remote observations, and focused modeling efforts necessary for complete understanding of investigated systems

## Turning Points

- Proof that oceanic phytoplankton blooms in the North Atlantic lead to a concomitant draw-down of carbon dioxide.
- Demonstration of the temperate North Atlantic and tropical Eastern Equatorial Pacific as globally-significant zones of carbon dioxide release and draw-down respectively.
- Proof that the availability of dissolved iron limits oceanic primary productivity, and thus carbon dioxide sequestration, in vast regions of blue water (“HNLC” areas) in the tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean.

## Turning Points

- Proof that over a decadal time frame, the carbon dioxide content of surface waters of the central gyres of the North Atlantic and North Pacific track closely the oscillating, but generally increasing, pattern observed in the marine troposphere.

## Turning Points

- Demonstration that microbial fixation of atmospheric dinitrogen (diazotrophy) controls primary production, and thus the sequestration of carbon dioxide, in the North Pacific Ocean and Arabian Sea during periods of strong stratification.

## CO2 Survey

- This map, based upon more than 500,000 measurements of CO2 in surface waters, allows us to see regional-scale patterns of the flux of CO2 between the ocean and the atmosphere during an average year. Areas of the ocean that take up large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere are shown in blue and purple, while areas that release CO2 into the atmosphere are shown in red and yellow. http://www1.whoi.edu/general_info/gallery_modeling/slide3.html

## ICCRP

## ICCRP-Focus Areas

- Focused process studies
- Drainage basin and ocean margin studies
- Global modeling and empirical studies
- Effects of climatic change and variability on the carbon cycle
- Data management and development of standards and methods

## ICCRP - Ocean

- Promotes quantification of spatial and temporal distributions and exchanges of carbon dioxide between ocean, atmosphere, and seafloor.
- Supports research on physical, chemical, and biological processes that control marine carbon biogeochemistry
- Promotes quantification of spatial and temporal distributions and exchanges of inorganic carbon at the land-sea interface
- Enhances understanding of major controlling processes in the watershed-coastal system

## ICCRP - Terrestrial

- Promotes research into cycling of other biolimiting elements and their effects on the carbon cycle
- Supports investigations of patterns and feedbacks of cycling of (carbon based) life-supporting elements in ecosystems, across gradients
- Promotes determination of hydrologic controls on ecosystems
- Supports investigations into the production of gas hydrates in various environments
- Promotes research into rhizosphere controls on greenhouse gas production and sequestration

## Short-Term Projects

- Basin-scale process studies in the North Atlantic as part of the Northern Hemisphere Carbon Program.
- Major strategic study of the delivery and fate of organic and inorganic carbon input to the ocean margins from land, open ocean, and air.

## Interagency Collaborations

## International Collaborations

- U.S. JGOFS -- part of international JGOFS effort sponsored by Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) and International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP)

## Climate/Ecosystem Interactions

## Climate/Ecosystem Interactions

- Antarctic Ecosystems
- Coastal Long-Term Ecological Research (cLTER)
- Ecological Diversity
- Ecological Rates of Change (EROC)
- Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC)

## Antarctic Ecosystems

- Designed to investigate the pelagic marine ecosystem in the Antarctic, and and the ecological processes which link the extent of annual pack ice to the biological dynamics of different trophic levels.
- FY03 Funding:  $1.0M

## cLTER Core Research Areas

- Science topics investigated at cLTER and LTER sites:
- pattern and control of primary production
- spatial and temporal distribution of populations selected to represent trophic structure
- pattern and control of organic matter
- nutrient movement through the system
- patterns, frequency, and effects of disturbances to the research site.
- FY03 Funding:  $3.2M

## Ecological Diversity

- Seeks to determine the potential effects of global changes on the biological and ecological diversity of managed and unmanaged ecosystems, and the resulting effects of altered diversity on ecosystem function
- FY03 Funding:  $6.9M

## Ecological Rates Of Change (EROC)

- Promotes research on how human-induced global change affects ecological rates of change.
- Designed to separate the effects of natural and anthropogenic changes in terrestrial and freshwater systems.
- FY03 Funding:  $3.2M

## GLOBEC

- Objectives:
- Experimental and process-driven research on the interaction of climate, ocean physics, and marine animal populations
- The establishment and maintenance of long-term observations of populations and the environment in which they exist
- Modeling of coupled physical-ecological systems
- FY03 Funding:  $16.0M

## GLOBEC Focus Areas

## U.S. GLOBEC Study Areas

## Turning Points

## Interagency Collaborations

- GLOBEC – Cooperative effort with NOAA, with contribution from NASA

- International Collaborations

- Coordinated NSF – European Commission solicitation for GLOBEC North Atlantic research in FY03

## Climate/Ecosystem Interactions-Directly-Related Activities

- LTER
- Investigations of diverse environments over long time-scales and broad spatial scales
- Consist of 24 sites across
- 	the U.S., the Arctic,
- 	and Antarctica
- Most sites have implicit
- 	global change components
- 	related to climate or land-use
- 	change
- FY03 Funding:  $18.0M

## Human Impacts

## Human Impacts

- Human Dimensions of Global Change
- HDGC projects
- FY03 Funding:  $7.9M
- Human Dimension of Global Change Centers
- FY03 Funding:  $2.3M
- CCRI Initiative -- Decision Support/Risk Management
- Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) competition
- FY03 Funding:  $5.0M

## Goals for Human Impact Studies

- Promote research on environmental social and behavioral science (including research on the human contribution and responses to global change)
- Understand the processes through which humans conduct their activities with respect to the natural environment.

## Human Impact Research Areas

- Investigations of processes through which people and institutions:
- Identify and address environmental problems
- Develop strategies and procedures for making effective decisions.
- Investigations of complexities associated with interactions between human and natural systems across spatial, temporal, and organizational scales.

## Short-Term Projects

- Establish 3-4 centers to study Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU).
- Establish a new set of centers addressing interdisciplinary environmental social and behavioral science issues.
- Work to transform Biocomplexity in the Environment/Coupled Natural & Human Systems into a multi-directorate program supporting larger-scale, interdisciplinary team projects focusing on natural and human interactions

## Turning Points

- Center for the Study of Institutions, Populations, and Environmental Change (CIPEC):
- Studying the interactions of populations and the environment in the Amazon tropical rain forests
- Determined that
- 	migrants pursued
- 	an expected pattern
- 	of deforestation for
- 	only the first five
- 	years, followed by
- 	decreasing rate of
- 	deforestation.

## International Collaboration

- Provides support for IHDP
- Provides support for international project offices for the Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) project and the Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC) project.

## Human Impacts-Directly-Related Activities

- Decision Making and Valuation for Environmental Policy (DMVEP) (with EPA)
- FY03 Funding:  $1.0M
- Biocomplexity in the Environment/Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems
- FY03 Funding:  $2.5M

## Biocomplexity in the Environment

- Systems that are inherently non-linear -- complex in a mathematical sense
- Systems including living organisms or humans
- Multidisciplinary
- FY03:	$36.0M in NSF-wide competition  		     	$36.0M in focused studies

## Themes

- Coupled biogeochemical cycles
- Coupled natural and human systems
- Genome-enabled environmental science
- Instrument development for environmental analysis
- Materials use - science and society

## Are Forest Carbon-Nitrogen Models 

**Are Forest Carbon-Nitrogen Models **
**Biased by Anthropogenic Nitrogen?**

- Most pristine temperate forests
- worldwide

- Theories and models have been
- developed here

- Map shows atmospheric NOy+NHx deposition in mid-1990s (mg N m-2 yr-1; Galloway et al. 2002)

- Unpolluted westerly winds

## Coupled Natural and Human Systems examples

- Agent-based modeling of land-use behavior and its impact on deforestation
- Relationship between west coast phragmites invasion, climate and anthropogenic changes