# Presentation: 323612

## TABLE-TOP EXERCISE:

**TABLE-TOP EXERCISE:**
**INDIAN OCEAN SCENARIO**
**MAKRAN SOURCE**
**Shallow, Offshore, Mw9.0**
** **
*Training Programme in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings*
*Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 21-25 August, 2006*
*Male, Maldives, 27-31 August, 2006*
*Colombo, Sri Lanka, 30 August 2006*

## TWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

- SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION         & ANALYSES
- SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS       & ANALYSES
- DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES
- MESSAGE CREATION                    & DISSEMINATION

## CHECKLIST

**Indian Ocean Events - Initial Bulletin**
**EQ SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION**
**Locate Epicenter**** (Tele-EQ, Pick, nquake) ****	****	****O**
**Make/Examine Location Map (nquake) ****	****	****	****O**
**Determine Depth (nquake) ****	****	****	****O**
**Determine Magnitude (Mwp) ****	****	****	****O**
**Issue Observatory Message**** ****	****	****	****O**
**    ****Start Mm (email Papeete if Mw>7), **
**    ****SMAG, Theta ****	****	****	****O**
**Select Message**** Type based on Criteria ****	****	****	****O**
**Call in Other Watchstanders to Help (Watches) ****	****O**
**Compute/Print/[Map] ETAs**** if a Warning or TIB ****	****O**

## CHECKLIST - Indian Ocean Events - Initial Bulletin

**EQ SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION**
**Locate Epicenter**** (Tele-EQ, Pick, nquake) ****	****	****O**
**Make/Examine Location Map (nquake) ****	****	****	****O**
**Determine Depth (nquake) ****	****	****	****O**
**Determine Magnitude (Mwp) ****	****	****	****O**
**Issue Observatory Message**** ****	****	****	****O**
**    ****Start Mm (email Papeete if Mw>7), **
**    ****SMAG, Theta ****	****	****	****O**
**Select Message**** Type based on Criteria ****	****	****	****O**
**Call in Other Watchstanders to Help (Watches) ****	****O**
**Compute/Print/[Map] ETAs**** if a Warning or TIB ****	****O**

## Checklist - Indian Ocean Events

**ISSUE MESSAGE**
**Run Message Software**** (for Indian Ocean)****	****	****O**
**    ****	****Check Message before Sending:****	**
**	****Bulletin Number (should be 1) ****	**** ****	****	****O**
**	****Message Type ****	**** ****	****	****O**
**	****Which Places Put in Watch Status****	**** ****	****	****O**
**	****Add Statement for Anything Unusual ****	**** ****	****	****O**
**	****Earthquake Parameters ****	**** ****	****	****O**
**	****Estimated Arrival Times ****	**** ****	****	****O**

## Checklist - Indian Ocean Events

**ENSURE MESSAGE DISSEMINATION**
**Check all Messages Went Out**
**Resend if Necessary**
**	****GTS (lp –d nmc nmcmsg [hnmcmsg])****	****	****O**
**	****Fax/Telex (lp –d tlx tlxmsg)****	****	****	****O**
**	****NWW (lp –d nww nwwmsg [hnwwmsg])****	****	****O**
**	****Web (/bin/ftp2webpac and /bin/ftp2webhaw) ****	****O**
**	****Email (cat wmsg | /bin/mailx bulletin )****	****	****O**
**	****EMWIN (call NWSTG if NMC okay)****	****	****	****O**
**	****HFO Fax (/bin/fax2hfo now)****	****	****	****O**
**Immediate Call Down List ****	****	****	****O**

## Checklist - Indian Ocean Events

**CONTINUE FOR WATCHES, TIB w/Tsunami potential**
**Call Closest Countries**
**	****Confirm they got our message ****	****	****	****	****O**
**	****Ask if they have any reports ****	****	****	****	****O**
**Display and Monitor**** Nearest Sea Level Gauges ****	****	****O**
**Trigger DARTS at least 30-min ahead of their ETAs ****	****O**
**Review**** ****Historical Data**** ****	****	****	****	****O**
**Re-assess Magnitude**
**	****Monitor Mm, SMAG ****	****	****	****	****O**
**	****Check for Tsunami or Slow Earthquake**
**	****     ****(Mw vs Ms, Theta) ****	****	****	****	****O**
**Monitor email for other EQ params and CMTs ****	****	****O**

## INDIAN OCEAN BULLETIN CRITERIA

| Mw less than 6.5
(Mw: Moment Magnitude) | Observatory Message Only |
| --- | --- |
| Mw 6.5 to 7.0 | Tsunami Information Bulletin |
| Mw 7.1 to 7.5 | Local Tsunami Watch |
| Mw 7.6 to 7.8 | Regional Tsunami Watch |
| Mw > 7.8 | Ocean-Wide Tsunami Watch |

## A

**Makran Accretionary margin, location of 1945 Tsunami in this region**
**                  ****Island Arc Volcanics                     Mud Volcanoes**

- 1945

***Mohktari et al., 2005***

## Mohktari et al., 2005

***Mohktari et al., 2005***

## SCENARIO TIMELINE

**0:00****	****Mw 9 Earthquake Occurs**
**0:10****	****PTWC Seismic Alarms Triggered**
**0:14 PTWC Initial Location/Magnitude**
**        ****Mw 8.1**
**0:15****	****PTWC Observatory Message**
**0:17 PTWC Basin-Wide Tsunami Watch 1**
**0:18 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 1**

## P-wave TT

- Broadband Seismic Stations contributing data to PTWC

- 8 min

## SCENARIO TIMELINE

**1:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 2**
**        ****Mw 8.9 revised**
**1:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 2**
**2:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 3**
**2:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 3**
**        ****Masirah SL gauge has not arrived **
**        ****(eta 2:23) - TWC may wait to issue**

## Calculated Tsunami Arrival Times

**Station   Xmit  Arrival  Transmit**
**Masirah     15  01:23:29 01:27:00**
**Salalah     15  02:28:17 02:40:00**
**Hanimaadhoo 60  03:36:28 04:01:00**
**Male        15  04:12:04 04:15:00**
**Gan         60  04:23:18 05:01:00**
**Colombo     15  04:45:36 04:54:00**
**Pt.LaRue    60  05:33:36 05:41:00**
**Lamu        30  05:59:00 06:03:00**
**Zanzibar    15  06:47:03 06:49:00**
**Rodrigue    15  08:09:43 07:13:00**
**Port Luis   15  08:23:45 07:31:00**

## Masirah

- Near-shore shallow bathymetry increases travel time

**Masirah**

**Male**
**Gan**

## SCENARIO TIMELINE

**3:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 4**
**        ****Salalah Sea level gauge (eta 3:26)**
**3:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 4**
**       **
**4:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 5**
**        ****Reading at Hanimaahdoo (eta 3:26)**
**        ****Male Sea level gauge (eta 4:12)**
**4:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 5**
**        ****with Updated Amplitude Forecasts**
**        ****Gan (eta 4:23, but transmit 5:01**
**            ****since 60 min transmit rate)**

## Calculated Tsunami Arrival Times

**Station   Xmit  Arrival  Transmit**
**Masirah     15  01:23:29 01:27:00**
**Salalah     15  02:28:17 02:40:00**
**Hanimaadhoo 60  03:36:28 04:01:00**
**Male        15  04:12:04 04:15:00**
**Gan         60  04:23:18 05:01:00**
**Colombo     15  04:45:36 04:54:00**
**Pt.LaRue    60  05:33:36 05:41:00**
**Lamu        30  05:59:00 06:03:00**
**Zanzibar    15  06:47:03 06:49:00**
**Rodrigue    15  08:09:43 07:13:00**
**Port Luis   15  08:23:45 07:31:00**

## SCENARIO TIMELINE

**5:18 PTWC Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 6**
**5:19 JMA Basin-wide Tsunami Watch 6**
**	****Sea Level Readings - Maldives**
**	****      ****Diego Garcia**
**6:19-10:00 **
**	****Addtl Sea Level Readings fr IO Stations**
**        ****Hourly Bulletins from PTWC / JMA**

*** ******For Interim IOTWS System:***
***  ******Basin-wide Watch => ***
***       ******Monitor sea levels across entire IO***
***  ******No Warnings issued (so No Cancellation)***

## Modeling Tsunami Propagation

**Modeling Tsunami Propagation**

## THANK YOU