# Presentation: 505056

## Finding What’s Visible, But Not Yet  Seen

**Finding What’s Visible, But Not Yet  Seen**

**Joseph Bordogna**
**National Science Foundation**
**http:// www.nsf.gov/bordogna**
**Keynote Address**
**National Engineering Summit**
**Workshop**
**National Academy of Sciences**
**May 29, 1997**

## 	“I never predict.  I just look out the window and see what’s visible -- but not yet seen.”

- 	“I never predict.  I just look out the window and see what’s visible -- but not yet seen.”
- 						Peter Drucker
- 						Forbes Magazine
- 						March 10, 1997

## A 21st Century World

**Complex**
**Technologies**

**Diverse**
**Workforce**

**Distributed**
**Intelligence**

**Career-long**
**Learning**

**Sustainable**
**Development**

**Finite****Resources**

**Infrastructure**
**Renewal**

**Global****Economy**

**Continuous**
**Innovation**

**Creative**
**Transformations**

## The Process of Creative Destruction

**	****Business leaders usually visualize a market economy in the context of how capitalism administers existing structures, whereas the wiser approach is to understand how it creates and destroys them.**

**Paraphrased from J. Schumpeter**
***Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy***
**Chapter VII, page 84**

## Innovation System

**Concurrent Integration**

**Innovation**
**Wealth Creation**
**Sustainable Development**

**Analysis**
**Reduction**

**Discovery of**
**  ****New Knowledge**
**  ****& Basic Laws**

**Societal Needs **
**The Public Good **
**Natural Capital**

**Devices **
**Processes**
**Systems**

**Ideas**
**Information**

**Capital Formation **
**& Investment**

**Synthesis**
**Integration**

**Design**
**Manufacture**
**Maintenance**

**Science**

**Policy Context**

**Engineering**

**Economic Context**

## Creative TransformationsThe Schumpeterian Factor

**Management of Technological Innovation**
**Tranformation to Quality Organizations**** **
**“****The interaction of technological innovation with the competitive marketplace is the fundamental driving force in capitalist industrial progress.” (Schumpeter, 1942)**** **

## The source of wealth is something specifically human:  KNOWLEDGE

**Knowledge applied to tasks we already know how to do is *****PRODUCTIVITY***
**Knowledge applied to tasks that are new and different is *****INNOVATION***

***Managing for the Future:  The 1990s and Beyond***
**Peter F. Drucker, 1992**

## Added Value:Thirty most Valuable Exports in 1970 & 1994

- “Economic well being in the future will likely go to those who are
- successful in innovating complex technologies.”
- Source: Kash & Rycroft: “Technology Policy in the 21st Century...”

## The $100,000 Engineer(Elec. Eng. Times Salary Survey)

**Goal: a rewarding and rewarded career**
**Engineers w/MBAs outearn PhD engineers**
_**60%**_** of engineers earning $40K can program in C/C++, but only **_**40%**_** of $100K engineers can.**** **
**Hot Jobs: What employers are seeking**
**“****experienced, highly qualified, well-rounded design types who can take a project and run with it.”**

## 3M: Hiring Innovators(Interviewer Questions)

**What activities or hobbies do you like to do in your spare time?**
**What things did you make or build as a child?**
**Tell me of a problem or situation where you had to identify new sources of information (e.g. people) to accomplish your objective.**
**Describe a dead end you encountered while working on a problem and how you handled it.**** **
**Desired traits: creative, strong work ethic, broad interests, self-motivated, resourceful, problem solver**

- Research/Technology Mgmt.  May/June 1997

## Composition of Federal Outlays

**Composition of Federal Outlays**

- %

**	****	****      ****	**_**1940**__**	**__**	**__**1965**__**	**__**	**__**1996**_
**Total, $ Billion****	**** ****	****  9.5****	****	**** 118****	****	****1,600**

**Payments for Individuals**

**All Other**

**Net Interest**

**National Defense**

## The Federal Budget DollarWhere it goes....

**FY 1996 Budget:  $ 1.6 Trillion**
**U. S. Economy:  $ 6 Trillion**
**National Debt:  $ 5 Trillion**

## Budget AgreementMajor Spending Categories, FY1998 to FY2002

**Entitlements grow**
**by 23% over 5 yrs.**

**Defense outlays**
**increase by 3%.**

**Non-defense discretionary outlays remain frozen at the FY98 level.**

- Outlays
- (trillions)

**Interest costs**
**decline by 5%.**

- Source: House & Senate Budget Committees

## National R&D Funding, by Source1970-1995, Current Dollars

- ($ Mil)

- Total

- Industry

- Federal

- Other

## National R&D Expenditures: 1995

**Industry**
**59%**

**Federal**
**36%**

**Other**
**  ****5%**

- Source: S/E Indicators 1996, Chapter 4; OMB FY98 Budget

**93%**
**Short**
**Term**

**7% Long**
**Term**

**53%**
**Defense**

**47%**
**Non-def.**

**Total = $171 B**

## Academic EngineeringFederal Support, by Agency (92-96)

**Current $$**
**(thousands)**

**1.0B**

**984M**

**836M**

**NSF**

**Defense**

- Source: NSF/SRS, Federal Funds for R&D (Table 1B)

## Returns on R&D Investments (1)

**Investments in S&E Linked to Economic Growth**
**One-third (possibly 1/2) of all economic growth over the past 50 years can be attributed to advances in S&T.  (Solow, Boskin)**** **
**Returns on investments in academic research**
**Strong linkage between industrial innovation and academic research.**
**Rate of Return on society’s investment exceeds 25% (Mansfield)**

**Source: CEA October ‘95 Report; S&E Indicators, Chapter 8**

## Returns on R&D Investments (2) 

**Academe**
**52.1%**

**Govt. Labs**
**10.2%**

**Non-profit**
**11%**

**Industry**
**26.7%**

- Source: CHI Research (Narin, featured in New York Times on 5/13/97)

**New York Times****May 13, 1997**** **
**“****Study Finds Publicly Financed Science is a Pillar of Industry”**** **
**73% of recent U.S. patents cite research from public & non-profit organizations.**** **

**Sources of papers cited**
**on U.S. Patents**

## Patents: Cites to US PapersHave Tripled over 6 years

- Source: CHI Research (Narin)

**Frequency of citation has also tripled.**
**Today, U.S. patents include 1.4 cites/patent.**
**In ‘85, the average was only .4 cites/pat.**

## Growth of Linkages

- Source: S/E Indicators, Chapter 5

- Cross-sectoral co-authorship has grown steadily since ‘81
- For industry papers:
- 38% now include co-authors from academe
- up from 22% in ‘81

**Industry Articles with co-authors**
**from academe & government**

- #
- p
- a
- p
- e
- r
- s

## NSF: FY98 Holistic Themes

**Knowledge & Distributed Intelligence**** **
**Life and Earth’s Environment**** **
**Educating for the Future**

## Knowledge and Distributed Intelligence

**Knowledge is available to anyone, located anywhere, at anytime.**
**Power, information, and responsibility are moving away from centralized control to the individual.**

## Knowledge & Distributed Intelligence in the Age of Information

- Knowledge & Distributed Intelligence in the Age of Information

**Next Generation Internet**
**Multidisciplinary Approaches**
**Knowledge Networking**
**Learning and Intelligent Systems**
**New Computational Challenges**

## Life and Earth’s Environment

**Life in Extreme Environments**
**Urban Communities**

## 	Educating for the Future

**Research Experiences for****Undergraduates (REU)**
**CAREER**
**GOALI**
**Systemic Reform**

**	****Educating for the Future**
**Integration of Research and Education**

## Engineering Research Centers

_**Class of 1997**_
**Integrated Media Systems (USC)**
**Competitive Product Development (MIT)**
**Reconfigurable Machining Sys. (Mich)**
**Engineered Biomaterials (U-Wash)**

_**Class of 1994**_
**Neuromorphic Eng. Systems (Caltech)**
**Low-Cost Electronic Packaging (GA-Tech)**
**Collaborative Manufact’ing (Purdue)**
**Bioprocess Eng. (MIT)**

## NSF Investment Outcomes

**Discoveries at and across the frontier of S&E**
**Connections to use in society**
**Diverse, productive, globally-oriented S&E workforce**
**Proficiency in math and science skills for all**

## Integrative Investment in Research & Education

**NSF as investment agent**
**Supporting research and education in universities, colleges and schools**
**Moving new knowledge and skills **
**Training ground for next generation of scientists and engineers**
**Facilitating S&E Partnerships**
**Learning Through Discovery from K-PhD**
**Broad portfolio of integrated investments**
**Excellence through competitive merit review**
**Opportunities across spectrum of S&E**

## Challenges for 21st Century Academe

**See the world whole; sense the coupling among seemingly disparate fields of endeavor**
**Perform synthesis in balance with analysis **
**Build connections between the world of learning and the world beyond**
**Innovate**

**Educate students to:**

## Challenges for 21st Century Industry

**Tap the potential of collaboration**
**Esp.: multi-firm & cross-sectoral partnerships**
**Cultivate diversity in styles & approaches**
**Adapt to Complexity (Avoid Overplanning)**
**Build networks based on trust**
**Group-based know-how**
**Respond to strategic inflection points**
**Continuous Innovation**
**Fast pull from university research base**
**Synthesis of diverse knowledge**

## Challenges for 21st Century Government

**Demonstrate Accountability**
**Implement GPRA/Outcome-based approaches**
**Improve Flexibility & Agility**
**Streamline processes (not just people)**
**Cultivate, Catalyze, & Enable Innovation**

## Concluding Questions

**How do we move forward as a community, since issues affect **_**all**_** engineers?**** **
**How do we expand our role -- beyond “problem-solvers”-- to innovators and leaders?**