# Presentation: 125346

## The Carbon CycleWorkshop on the Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program

**Steven Japar**
**Research Laboratory, Ford Motor Company**
- December 3, 2002
- Washington, D.C.

## General Comments

- Overview is comprehensive, but ...
- Key Questions have considerable overlap
- Curtails discussion of specific issues in the available space
- A different break-out scheme?
- Desired end points/products
- Needs to achieve goals
- Scientific understanding – experiments; data mining
- Confirming global data – satellites, *in situ* remote sensing
- Interactions with other areas of the Climate Change Science Program
- Model improvement/development, as appropriate

## US Carbon Cycle Science ProgramAIMS

- How large/variable are the dynamic reservoirs/ fluxes of carbon in the Earth system?
- Carbon cycling changes: years decades  centuries?
- Interactions with climate, water, nitrogen cycles
- What are our options for managing carbon sources/sinks to achieve balance of risk/cost/ benefit to society?
- Science of CO2/CH4 mitigation (sequestration)

## What Is Needed?

- IDENTIFY, QUANTIFY all sources and sinks
- Understand biogeochemistry
- Interactions of carbon, nitrogen, water cycles
- Interactions with climate, ecosystem disturbances, air quality
- Impacts of land use alternatives
- Science of CO2, CH4 mitigation
- GLOBAL MAP of land use
- Satellite platforms; *in situ* ecosystem monitoring
- MODEL the carbon cycle
- Couple land and water, especially interfaces
- Regional resolution or parameterization
- Sources/sinks   Land use

## What Is Needed?

- IDENTIFY, QUANTIFY all sources and sinks
- Understand the biogeochemistry – interactions of carbon, nitrogen, water cycles; climate
- Above and below ground
- Flora and Fauna
- Terrestrial, ocean waters
- Surface layer, deep water
- Science of CO2, CH4 mitigation
- GLOBAL MAP of land use
- Satellite platforms; *in situ* ecosystem monitoring
- MODEL the carbon cycle
- Couple land and water, especially interfaces
- Regional resolution or parameterization
- Sources/sinks   Land use

**Just About Everything!**

## Ford Motor Co.’s Research Interests

- Science underlying CO2/CH4 mitigation/ sequestration
- Princeton University sequestration program
- University of Michigan – sponsored Ameriflux work
- Black Carbon
- Impact on radiative forcing of climate
- University of Michigan – model development
- In-house: optical properties of vehicle particle emissions
- Air quality and CO2/CH4 sources/sinks
- Nitrogen fertilization, ozone and biomass, etc.

## Cautions

- Mapping, remote sensing, modeling are nice, but *to look into the future* *we must have the underlying science.*
- There is no point in collecting data if we have to way to manage it and use it.
- It looks good, but vigilance is required

## Q1: Magnitudes/distributions of N.A. carbon sources/sinks; dynamics- controlling processes?

- Research Needs
- Micrometeorological estimates of net land, ocean CO2/CH4 fluxes at ecosystem, landscape scales
- Biomass, soil inventories of carbon in all managed and unmanaged ecosystems
- Processes in coastal zones, ecosystem margins
- Products
- Quantify regional estimates of C fluxes
- Identify processes controlling C sources/sinks
- Carbon cycle models
*State of N. American Carbon Report*

## Q2: Magnitudes/distributions of ocean C sources/sinks; dynamics- controlling processes; timescales?

- Research Needs
- Quantify ocean capacity to absorb fossil fuel CO2 through export to the deep sea
- Regional/seasonal variation in nutrients, C uptake
- Characterization of coastal margins
- Products
- Role of nutrients, primary productivity on deep-sea C storage; linkage of carbon, nitrogen cycles
- Global air/sea fluxes of CO2; delivery of C from land to oceans
- Ocean sequestration models: biogeochemistry, ocean circulation, ecosystem feedback

## Q3: Magnitudes/distributions of global terrestrial, oceanic, atmospheric C; timescales?

- Research needs
- Collection, analysis, integration of global C monitoring and inventory data
- Development of coupled, interactive carbon-climate, and Earth system models
- Products
- Identification/quantification of processes controlling soil C storage, global CO2 exchange among land/ocean/air
- Regional estimates of C flux strength
- Remote sensing: changes in primary productivity, biomass, land cover
- Potential for changes in C storage, fluxes due to changes in climate, ecosystem disturbance, climate; climate feedbacks?

## Q4: Effects of past  future land use change/resource management on C sources/sinks?

**Research needs**
- Continued monitoring of C storage/flux (soil, litter, vegetation, etc.); response to land use changes/ management practices
- Continued satellite land use data; new remote sensing data of biomass
- Process studies linking observations and long-term experiments to identify cause-and-effect relationships.
**Products**
- Effects of land use (then and now) on C storage/release under all environmental conditions
- Agricultural management effects on US C emissions/storage
- Linked ecosystem, resource management, human dimensions models to evaluate policy options

## Q5: Future CO2, CH4 concentrations; how will C sources/ sinks change in the future?

- Research needs
- Potential land use/climate/carbon cycle interactions/ feedbacks; anomalous responses
- Incorporate improved processes into C cycle models
- Response of C sources/sinks to increased CO2, climate change, inherent natural variability
- Process studies linking observations and long-term experiments to identify cause-and-effect relationships.
- Products
- Effects of land use (then and now) on C storage/release under all environmental conditions
- Agricultural management effects on US C emissions/storage
- Linked ecosystem, resource management, human dimensions models to evaluate policy options

## Q6: Earth system respond to carbon management options; what scientific information is needed?

- Research needs
- Potential mechanisms (magnitude and longevity) of carbon sequestration (terrestrial and marine)
- Effect of changes in CO2, climate variability, etc., on C cycle management options
- Scientific, socioeconomic criteria to evaluate C cycle sensitivity, and vulnerability/sustainability of management options
- Products
- Evaluation of biophysical potential of US ecosystems to sequester C; assessment of C sequestration management options in crops, grazing systems.
- Scientific criteria, model tests of C management sustain-ability, including system interactions and feedbacks