# Presentation: 623795

## Boating Trends & the Significance of Demographic Change

_**Boating Trends & the Significance of Demographic Change**_

- Gary T. Green
- University of Georgia
- Ken Cordell
- U.S. Forest Service, Athens, GA
- & Becky Stephens
- University of Tennessee

- _www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends_

## WHAT THIS PRESENTATION COVERS

- <date/time>

**WHAT THIS PRESENTATION COVERS**

**The NSRE & its background**
**An overview of population growth & demographic diversification**
**American’s environmental values **
**Recreation boating participation & trends**
**Segmenting the American public & understanding their differences**

## HISTORY & CURRENT COVERAGE OF THE NATIONAL RECREATION SURVEY

**1st National Recreation Survey (NRS) 1960 **
**1965, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1995 & 2000-02**
**National & Regional Demand Assessments**
**Renamed the NSRE**
**Nation’s On-going, Long-term Outdoor**** Recreation & The Environment Survey**

## MODULES OF QUESTIONS

**MODULES OF QUESTIONS**

**Participation in Recreational Activities**
**Frequency of Participation in Days**
**Favorite Activities & Constraints**
**Nature-based Trip Taking/Tourism**
**Opinions about Recreation Area Management**
**Environmental Attitudes & Values**
**Values & Objectives for Management of Public Lands**

## MODULES OF QUESTIONS

**MODULES OF QUESTIONS**

**Wilderness Values, Knowledge, Visitation, & Management**
**Knowledge, Objectives, Satisfactions with Congressionally Designated Areas**
**Ownership, Uses, Motivations & **
**	****Plans for Private Land**
**Wildland-Urban Interface Issues**
**   ****& Attitudes**
**Lifestyles, Demographics & Disabilities**

## LIFESTYLES--NEW

**LIFESTYLES--NEW**

**Hobbies or other interests**
**Chores or gardening at home**
**Involvement with family**
**Interest in sports**
**Community or civic activities**
**Vacationing and travel**
**Self study and cultural events**
**Exercise**

## DETAILED HOUSEHOLD & INDIVIDUAL DATA (Employs Bureau of Census Protocols)No. of household members by age & sexCitizenship, where born & country of originRace & ethnicity, Disabilities Occupation & employment statusCity, rural/urban, ZIP CodeChildhood originIncome & education

## NSRE

**80,000 households, Keys to the Artic Wildlife Refuge**
**Non-institutionalized individuals 16 & older**
**Nation’s 8****th**** on-going recreation survey**
**USFS, NOAA, ERS, EPA, NPS, BLM.**
**National Scenic Byways, Wilderness, State ****Agencies, Bicycle Safety, Pew Wilderness Center,**** .....**

## DEMOGRAPHICCHANGE:

***DEMOGRAPHIC******CHANGE:***
**Know the Trends & Better Anticipate Market Shifts**

## Slide 10

## Our Changing American Society

_**Our Changing American Society**_

-  **1 million**** new legal immigrants per year**
_**More people**_**:****	****1990****	****	****248 mm**
**	****	****	****2020****	****	****325 mm**
**	****	****	****2050****	****	****404 mm**
**	****	****	****2100****	****	****571 mm**
_**Getting older**_**:Median age 35********38 (2020)**
_**Changing ethnicities**_** by 2050:**
**	****	****Anglo Americans ****	****76%********50%**
**	****	****African Americans****	****12% ********15%**
**	****	****Hispanic Americans****	**** 9% ********21%**
**	****	****Asian Americans****	**** 4% ********11%**

## Demographic Percentages: 1960 & 2000

**Family Income**** (1998$s) (N.B:45 million U.S. families in 1960,almost 75 million families in 2002)**
_**Percentiles**_** ****	**_**1960**_**	****	**_**2000**_
**	****20****th****	****	****$14,093****	****$21,600**
**   ****	****40****th****	****     $24,298****	****$37,692**
**   ****	****60****th****	****     $32,215****	****$56,020**
**   ****	****80****th****     $44,547****	****$83,693**
**   ****	****95****th**** ****	****$68,521****	****$145,199**

## Demographic Percentages:

_** **__**1960 & 2000**_

**Educational Attainment****, (Age 25 & Over)     ****	****	****	****	****	****	****     **_**Percent**_
_**Education level**_**	****	****	**_**1960**_**	**_**2000**_
**8****th**** grade or less****	****	****	****37.5****	****	****  7.4**
**9-11****th**** grade****	****	****	****	****18.5****	****	****  9.7**
**High school graduate****	****	****27.1****	****	****33.8**
**Some college****	****	****	****	****  9.1****	****	****24.7**
**College degree or higher ****	****  7.7****	****	****24.4**

## WHAT AMERICAN’S VALUE ABOUT OUR ENVIRONMENT

- <date/time>

## Spending on the Environment

- <date/time>

**Too Much****	****	****7%**

**Too Little****	****	****49%**

**About Right****	****	****     28%**

**(Don’t Know)****	****	****(15%)**

## Humans Were Meant to Rule Over Nature

**Humans Were Meant to Rule Over Nature**

- 14%
- Strongly Agree

- 15%
- Somewhat Agree

- 19%
- Somewhat Disagree

- 42%
- Strongly Disagree

**29%**

**61%**
- (6% Neutral)

## Percentages Indicating Environmental Protection

**Percentages Indicating Environmental Protection**
**or Economic Development are Highest Priority**

- Source: Gallup/CNN/USA Today Poll, April 13-14, 1999.

## Source: Roper Organization, 1990; Times Mirror, 1994; NEETF, 1998.

## Percentage 

**Percentage **
**of Americans**
**Reporting **
**Regulation of **
**Natural **
**Resources is **
**“****Just the **
**Right Amount” **
**or has **
**“****Not Gone **
**Far Enough.”**

## LONG-TERM

_***LONG-TERM***_
_*** ***__***TRENDS***_

## At Present

_**At Present**_

**Over 97.6 percent report activities**
**Most are adding to their ****	****recreation menu**
**Living longer means staying ****	****active longer**

## Shifts in Outdoor Recreation Markets

** ****	****Technology ****	****innovations are ****	****making more areas, ****	****more accessible:**
**	****-****	****Jet boats**
**	****-****	****Light-weight gear**
**	****-****	****Sub-zero sports ****	****	****	****clothing**
**	****-****	****Sticky climbing ****	****	****	****shoes**
**	****-****	****Night scopes**

** ****	****Risk/Adventure ****	****pursuits are gaining ****	****in popularity:**
**	****-****	****Base jumping**
**	****-****	****Falls shooting**
**	****-****	****Mountain ****	****	****	****boarding**
**	****-  “Jet skiing”**

** ****	****Traditional outdoor activities ****	****still growing (moderately); ****	****consumptive activities ****	****declining; viewing/learning ****	****activities on the rise.**

## TRENDS

-  	Almost 90 percent of Americans 	participated in Outdoor Recreation
-  	Walking, picnicking, sightseeing,
-    swimming, fishing, & bicycling
-    the most popular activities

-  	97 percent participated
-  	List of pursuits getting longer, 	more diverse
-  	Walking, sightseeing, swimming, 	picnicking, _boating_ most popular

**1990’s**

**1980’s**

**TRENDS**

## Slide 24

## Activities Adding the Most Participants 16 or older, 1982-2002

- _Activities Adding the Most Participants 16 or older, 1982-2002_

**	****	****	**_**Millions**_
**	**_**Growth**_**	**_**No. in 2002**_
**Walking****	****	****85.4****	****	****179.0**
**Bird watching****	****	****50.0****	****	****71.2**
**Hiking****	****	****48.4****	****	****73.1**
**Swimming/river,**
**  ****lake, or ocean****	****	****36.4****	****	****92.9**
**Sightseeing****	****	****32.7****	****	****114.0**
**Picnicking****	****	****31.8****	****	****116.6**
**Bicycling****	****	****27.4****	****	****83.9**
**Developed camping****	****	****22.8****	****	****52.8**
_**Motor boating**_**	****	****17.8****	****	****51.4**
**Off-road driving****	****	****17.3****	****	****36.7**

## PARTICIPATION TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES

| 
Activity | Millions of participants
1994-95 | Millions of participants
2000-02 | % change 1994-2002 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kayaking | 2.58 | 7.29 | 182.56 |
| Snowboarding | 4.43 | 10.53 | 137.70 |
| Jet skiing | 9.26 | 20.31 | 119.33 |
| View/photo fish | 26.82 | 53.06 | 97.84 |
| Snowmobiling | 6.95 | 11.81 | 69.93 |
| View wildlife | 61.11 | 95.26 | 55.88 |
| Backpacking | 14.80 | 22.76 | 53.78 |
| Day hiking | 46.68 | 70.62 | 51.29 |
| Canoeing | 13.76 | 20.63 | 49.93 |

_**PARTICIPATION TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES**_

## PARTICIPATION TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES

| 
Activity | Millions of participants 1994-95 | Millions of participants 2000-02 | % change 1994-2002 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Coldwater fishing | 20.27 | 28.81 | 42.13 |
| Developed camping | 40.53 | 55.73 | 37.50 |
| Drive off-road | 27.26 | 37.21 | 36.50 |
| Rafting | 14.88 | 20.22 | 35.89 |
| Walk for pleasure | 130.66 | 177.00 | 35.47 |
| Visit nature centers | 90.93 | 122.28 | 34.48 |
| Family gathering | 120.97 | 156.78 | 29.60 |
| View birds | 52.83 | 69.26 | 31.10 |
| Motor-boating | 47.0 | 51.8 | 10.2 |

_**PARTICIPATION TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES**_

## N.B. Preliminary data results for 2003

| 
Activity | Millions of participants
(2002) 2003 | Whitewater
No’s | Ocean

No’s | Salt water
No’s |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Kayaking | (7.3) 13.6 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 |
|  |  |  |  |  |
| Canoeing | (20.6) 26.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 2.1 |

_**PARTICIPATION BY SETTING**_

**N.B. Preliminary data results for 2003**

## Regions Where Participants Reside

| Type of Activity | Millions of Participants |  |  |  | National |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | South | North | Rocky Mtn./
Great Plains | Pacific Coast |  |
| Trail/street/road | 59.6 | 82.6 | 15.7 | 30.4 | 188.4 |
| Viewing/learning | 44.5 | 66.2 | 12.4 | 23.1 | 146.1 |
| Camping | 18.5 | 27.4 | 7.5 | 12.4 | 66.5 |
| Hunting | 8.8 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 23.7 |
| Outdoor adventure | 35.2 | 50.5 | 11.1 | 19.8 | 117.0 |
| Boating/floating | 23.6 | 35.3 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 76.5 |
| Fishing | 26.8 | 29.2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 72.4 |
| Swimming | 40.1 | 57.6 | 9.2 | 21.2 | 127.4 |
| Ski/sledding/snowmobiling | 8.9 | 31.9 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 54.4 |
| Outdoor team sport | 14.6 | 21.3 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 46.9 |
| Social activities | 53.3 | 74.6 | 14.4 | 27.6 | 169.9 |

_**Regions Where Participants Reside**_

## Kayaking

**Snowboarding**
_**Jet skiing**_
**View or photograph fish**
**Snow-mobiling**
**Ice Fishing**
**Sledding**
**View wildlife**
**Backpacking**
**Day hiking**
**Bicycling**
**Horseback riding**
_**Canoeing**_

_**Motor-boating**_
**Primitive camping**
**Sailing**
**Visit historic sites**
**Downhill skiing**
**Snorkeling/ scuba **
**Visit beach/waterside**
**Anadromous fishing**
**Caving**
**Small game hunt..**
**Migratory bird hunting**
**Picnicking**
**Warm-water fishing**
**Saltwater fishing**
**Swimming**

_**FASTEST GROWING**_

_**SLOWEST GROWING**_

**Mountain climbing**
_**Coldwater fishing**_
**Developed camping**
**Drive off-road**
_**Rafting**_
**Walk for pleasure**
_**Surfing**_
**Visit nature centers**
**Visit arch. sites**
**View birds**
**Family gathering**

## Projected Demand to 2020

- Forecasts

**	****Millions****	****     Indexed % Change**
**	****Participating****	****    (Base year is 1995)**
**Activities****	****(1995)****	****People****	****Days****	****Trips**
_**Water-Based**_
**Going to the Beach****	****124****	****1.24****	****1.17****	****1.17**
**Motor Boating****	**** 47****	****1.21****	****1.14****	****1.16**
**Swimming****	**** 78****	****1.21****	****1.12****	****1.09**
**Fishing****	**** 58****	****1.17****	****1.17****	****1.10**
**Canoeing****	**** 14****	****1.15****	****1.28****	****1.14**
**Rafting/Floating****	**** 15****	****1.07****	****1.17****	****1.10**
_**Winter-Based**_
**Cross-Country Skiing****	****  6****	****1.26****	****0.96****	****1.12**
**Downhill Skiing****	**** 17****	****1.22****	****1.31****	****1.36**
**Snowmobiling****	****  7****	****1.09****	****1.32****	****1.35**

- Forecasts

## DEMOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINTS OF BOATERS

**DEMOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINTS OF BOATERS**

## CANOERS

_**CANOERS**_
**43% female, 57% male**
**87% non-Hispanic white**
**33% under 25, **
**  ****77% under 45**
**Incomes $25K to $75K**
**Under 80% urban**
**Favored by Northeasterners    **
**  ****& Midwesterners**

## KAYAKERS

_**KAYAKERS**_
**44% female, 56% male**
**85% non-Hispanic white**
**60% under 35, 40% under 25**
**Over 1/3 earn under $25K**
**85% urban**
**Heavier participation in New  **
**  ****England & Pacific Coast**
**  ****States**

## SAILERS

_**SAILERS**_
**48% female, 52% male**
**84% Non-Hispanic white**
**44% under 35**
**Middle to high income **
**  ****earners**
**87% urban**
**Favored in the North-east**

## WINDSURFERS

_**WINDSURFERS**_
**67% male, 33% female**
**50% under 25, 56% under 35**
**1/3 between $25-$50K, 1/3**
**   ****over $100K**
**Northeast & Pacific Coast**

## MOTOR BOATERS

_**MOTOR BOATERS**_

**57% male, 43% female**
**52% between $25K & $75K**
**77% urban**
**Favored in the Lake, Midwest ****	****& South Atlantic**** states**
**58 % between 25 & 55**

## WATER SKIERS

_**WATER SKIERS**_

**60% male, 40% female**
**86% white, 8% Hispanic**
**86% under 45**
**Favored by Prairie &**
**  ****Mountain states residents **

## PERSONAL WATER CRAFT

_**PERSONAL WATER CRAFT**_

**54% male, 46% female**
**79% white, 11% Hispanic**
**66% under 35**
**Favored in the Midwest & South**

## Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by race & country.

| Group | Walking | Swimming Outdoors | Hiking | Motor
Boating | Downhill Skiing | Big Game Hunting |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Percent of Total Population | 
83.8 | 
43.8 | 
33.4 | 
24.4 | 
8.3 | 
8.2 |
| Race/Ethnicity |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| White | 1.02 | 1.15 | 1.03 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1.28 |
| Black | 1.00 | 0.49 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| American Indian | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.57 | 2.00 |
| Asian/ PI | 1.08 | 0.92 | 0.96 | 0.54 | 1.46 | 0.23 |
| Hispanic | 0.88 | 0.75 | 1.42 | 0.50 | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| Place of Birth |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| United States | 1.02 | 1.04 | 0.93 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.07 |
| Another Country | 0.81 | 0.56 | 1.67 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.30 |

**Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by race & country.**

## Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by age & income.

| Group | Walking | Swimming Outdoors | Hiking | Motor Boating | Downhill Skiing | Big Game Hunting |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Percent of Total Population | 83.8 | 43.8 | 33.4 | 24.4 | 8.3 | 8.2 |
| Age |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 16-24 | 1.02 | 1.37 | 1.11 | 1.24 | 1.89 | 1.17 |
| 25-34 | 1.01 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| 35-44 | 1.03 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.13 |
| 45-54 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 0.99 |
| 55-64 | 0.98 | 0.68 | 0.78 | 0.81 | 0.32 | 0.82 |
| 65+ | 0.94 | 0.37 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| Income |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| <$15,000 | 0.91 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 0.57 | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| $15,000-$24,999 | 0.98 | 0.79 | 0.98 | 0.63 | 0.41 | 0.81 |
| $25,000-$49,000 | 1.02 | 1.10 | 1.04 | 1.07 | 0.75 | 1.31 |
| $50,000-$74,999 | 1.08 | 1.28 | 1.11 | 1.36 | 1.17 | 1.38 |
| $75,000-$99,999 | 1.09 | 1.39 | 1.20 | 1.59 | 1.86 | 1.21 |
| $100,000+ | 1.09 | 1.43 | 1.29 | 1.67 | 2.76 | 1.09 |

**Estimated ratios of percentage of participants to percentage of total population for outdoor activities by age & income.**

## BEING MORE EFFECTIVE IN OUTREACH, LISTENING, AND  INFORMING

## Segmenting for more effective 

**Young**
**New England**
**Wind Surfers**
**	****(0.9%)**

**Nature**
**Lovers**
**(27.2%)**

**The Inactives**
**(22.0%)**

**The Urban**
**Beach Boys**
**(3.8%)**

**The Noreaster**
**Musclers (6.2%)**

**The Thrill**
**Seekers (8.3%)**

**Hunt-n-Fish**
**Men’s Motor Club**
**(6.3%)**

**The Take it Easies**
**(25.3%)**

**Segmenting for more effective **
**communication and education**

## Hunt-n-Fish Men’s Motor Club (6.3%)

**Hunt-n-Fish Men’s**** ****Motor Club**** (6.3%)**

**Hunt, fish, motorized, camp, ****motorboat (53%), canoe**
**Don’t participate in beach activities or much in viewing/learning**
**88% male, 90% white, under 45, U.S. born, much more rural, Prairie & Southern**
**Belong to wildlife conservation group, read nature magazines, woodworking, own a business, garden, have pets & do home improvements**
**Humans were meant to rule over the earth & environmental crisis is exaggerated**

## The Urban Beach Boys (3.8%)

**The Urban Beach Boys (3.8%)**

**Diving, Surfing, Snorkeling, ****Kayaking, Sailing****, Backpacking, Snowboarding, Saltwater Fishing, ****Water Skiing****, ****Jet Skiing****. more active than most people in most activities, except hunting**
**Two-thirds white, Asian/Pacific Islanders well represented, majority under 35, U.S. born, & urban**
**South Atlantic & Pacific Coast**
**Regularly go to movies, use internet at home, participate in environmental groups, invest, & attend classes, involved as a youth volunteer, into the arts**
**Feel humans are abusing the earth, we’re on a course for ecological catastrophe & the balance of nature is delicate**

## Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9%)

**Young New England Wind Surfers (0.9%)**

**Windsurfing (71%)****,surfing,****kayaking (48%), **
**   ****sailing (68%)****, non-motorized winter activities,**
**   ****diving, snorkeling, ****rowing (28%) & canoeing (55%)**
**More active than most Americans in **_**all**_** activities, including water & jet skiing**
**>85% white; 2/3’s male; 1⁄2 under 25; urban, U.S. born**
**New England & Pacific Coast strongly represented**
**Into movies, lifelong learning classes, participate with environmental groups, regularly attend movies, belong to country club, use internet & into the stock market**
**Strongly believe environmental crisis is greatly exaggerated, though we are nearing the earth’s limits**

## The Noreaster Musclers (6.2%)

**The Noreaster Musclers**** (6.2%)**

**Cross-country skiing, ****rowing (31%), kayaking (28%), canoeing (53%)****, downhill skiing, ****sailing (25%)****, hiking, visiting a wilderness, backpacking, snowboarding, bicycling & fishing**
**They don’t hunt, but are active in most other activities**
**Somewhat more male than female, white & Asian/Pacific Islander, young to middle aged, urban, from New England, Prairie, Mountain & Pacific states**
**Members of conservation groups, use internet at home, attend concerts, have vacation property, invest, belong to country club**
**More belief that we are abusing the earth, the balance of nature is delicate & may be heading for disaster**

## The Thrill Seekers (8.3%)

**The Thrill Seekers ****(8.3%)**

**Waterskiing (62%), jet skiing (68%), rafting    (46%)****, snowmobiling, snowboarding, ****motorboating (83%)****, downhill skiing, driving off-road, ****rowing & canoeing**
**Very active across a large number of activities**
**Equally male/female, white & American Indians well represented, two thirds under 35, almost all born in the U.S., from Plains states**
**Youth volunteers, belong to a country club, use the internet, attend movies, watch sports on TV, gather with friends & neighbors**
**Balance of nature is delicate, humans are abusing the earth, & a disaster is looming**

## SUMMARY POINTS

- Society has changed dramatically in the last few decades, & it shows up in our outdoor recreation
- Outdoor recreation is growing & diversifying as a part of Americans’ lifestyles, almost everyone is involved at some level
- Walking, birding, hiking, swimming are at the top of the activity growth list, not far behind is motor boating

## SUMMARY CONTINUED

- Population will continue its rapid growth with some groups literally exploding in numbers
- Increasingly women, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic, older &urban people participating.  OR is still very much a white male pursuit
- Indicators point to rise of outdoor recreation  & more demands on water resources
- People are showing strong concern for the environment & its water resources
- Need to be smart about outreach & education strategies

## NSRE 2005

**Sponsors, Partners, Working group, etc**
**Sponsoring surveys, modules, questions**
**Individual reports, by State, activity, demographics**
**Contact ggreen@fs.fed.us**

## www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends

**www.srs.fs.fed.us/trends**