# Presentation: 796585

## Review of Energy Trends in India: The U.S. Perspective

- Mark Rodekohr
- January 2005
- EIA/SARI Data and Analysis Recommendation Workshop
- Delhi, India

## Economic Growth and Energy Demand Growth, 1988 - 1999

**Petroleum (0.9%)**

**Natural Gas (1.7%)**

**Electricity (2.9%)**

**Electricity (7.2%)**

**Natural Gas (8.4%)**

**Petroleum (5.4%)**

- United States

- India

- 5.6% / year

- 3.0% / year

## India Per Capita Energy Demand Indices

## India Energy Demand Trends

-  High growth rate in electricity demand across all sectors of the economy
-  High growth in natural gas demand across all sectors.
- Growth in petroleum demand only in transportation sector.

## Petroleum

## Oil Imports: India

## Natural Gas Demand: India

## Electricity

## Net Electricity Imports: India

## Total Energy Production

## Production & Consumption: India

## Energy Issues: India I

- India's economic growth is continuing its recovery from a slowdown that took place in 2002, which was mainly attributable to weak demand for manufactured exports and the effects of a drought on agricultural output. Real growth in the country's gross domestic product (GDP) was 4.0% for 2002, surging to 8.2% in 2003 and a projected 6.4% for 2004 and 6.2% for 2005
- Future oil consumption in India is expected to grow rapidly, to 2.8 million bbl/d by 2010, from 2.2 million bbl/d in 2003. India is attempting to limit its dependence on oil imports somewhat by expanding domestic exploration and production. To this end, the Indian government is pursuing the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP), first announced in 1997, which permits foreign involvement in exploration, an activity long restricted to Indian state-owned firms

## Energy Issues: India II

- Indian consumption of natural gas has risen faster than any other fuel in recent years. From only 0.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per year in 1995, natural gas use was nearly 0.9 Tcf in 2002 and is projected to reach 1.2 Tcf in 2010 and 1.6 Tcf in 2015. Even with these new reserves, India's domestic natural gas supply is not likely to keep pace with demand, and the country will have to import much of its natural gas, either via pipeline or as liquefied natural gas (LNG).

## Energy Issues: India III

- India is trying to expand electric power generation capacity, as current generation is seriously below peak demand. Although about 80% of the population has access to electricity, power outages are common, and the unreliability of electricity supplies is severe enough to constitute a constraint on the country's overall economic development. The government had targeted capacity increases totaling 100,000 megawatts (MW) over the next ten years. As of January 2002, total installed Indian power generating capacity was 120,000 MW.

## Appendix: Some Simple Forecasting Models – Made in 2002

## A Simple Demand Model

- Variables:
**Demand** = total annual average demand (physical unit)
**GDP** = real GDP (billion $, 1990 basis)

## India Petroleum DemandRegression Model 

- Demand = -22.35 + 4.096  GDP
- 				N = 20	R2 = 0.99

## India Petroleum Demand (GDP assumed to grow 6.2% per Year)

- India Petroleum Demand (GDP assumed to grow 6.2% per Year)

- Actual:
- 99 – 2.03
- 20 – 2.13
- 01 – 2.18
- 02 – 2.19

## India Natural Gas DemandRegression Model

- Demand = -386.88 + 2.58  GDP
- 				N = 20	R2 = 0.99

## India Natural Gas Demand(GDP assumed to grow 6.2% per Year)

- Actual
- 99 – 752
- 20 – 795
- 01 – 851
- 02 - 883

## India Electricity DemandRegression Model

- Demand = -74266.7 + 974.66  GDP
- 				N = 20	R2 = 0.99

## India Electricity Demand(GDP assumed to grow 6.2% per Year)

- Actual
- 99 – 470
- 20 – 489
- 01 – 509
- 02 - 510