# Presentation: 914083

## Introducing: “Magic Congestion Binoculars”

**Presented to: ****SSG-WI **
**Date: March 12, 2003**
**	****By Dennis Phillips, BPA  ****	**
**	****(503)230-5062, **_[dwphillips](mailto:dwphillips@bpa.gov)__[@bpa.](mailto:dwphillips@bpa.gov)__[gov](mailto:dwphillips@bpa.gov)_
**	**** **

## SSG-WI Production Cost Study – Typical Process Flowchart. 

***Estimated turnaround time for 2 or 3 scenarios = a week, a month ?***

**ABB optimized thermal dispatch and power-flow model**

**(BPA)**
**Provides Federal & Non-federal Columbia/Snake HLH-LLH hydro generation for  2008 HYDSim scenarios**

**WECC 2008 hourly load shape data**

**WECC regional hub 2008 fuel price forecasts and distribution cost data**

**WECC committed & new resource data**

**Analysis of hourly LMPs and  powerflows**

- Scenario Design

***Note: HydSim makes independent  assumptions concerning thermal dispatch, intertie loadings and transmission constraints***

**HYDSim**** ****(BPA)**
**Monthly hydro targets and shapes**
**High Water**
**Med Water**
**Low Water**

**PNW load shapes**

**Scenario loop**

## But before we can answer these questions we need to improve the clarity with which our models “see” congestion. 

***Questions like:***
***What are the costs/benefits of Western RTOs?***
***Where, when, how often, and at what cost does congestion exist?***
***Who pays those costs?***
***What are CRRs /FTRs worth - next month, next year, over the next 5 years?***
***Who are the long term winners and losers when transmission upgrades, new resources, or pipelines are built?  ***
***What is the least cost way to maintain a given reliability standard?   ***
***But before we can answer these questions we need to improve the clarity with which our models “see” congestion. ***

## The tails are where the “value” is

**Path Capacity Limit**

**0**

**Megawatt Flow from A to B**

**Node_A**

**Node_B**

**Positive Energy Flow on Path from A to B**

**For any hour**

**Histogram after “n” scenarios **

## How accurately we model congestion depends on how accurately we model the frequency and duration of the events in the “tails” of the... 

**WECC hourly bus bar load distributions**
**WECC fuel price distributions**
**WECC hourly hydro flow distributions**
**WECC planned and unplanned outages**
**...**
_***We won’t “see” the congestion if we don’t model the tails of  these distributions more accurately.***_

## BPA winter-weekday 4PM west-east load differentials

**BPA winter-weekday 4PM west-east load differentials**
**Source: BPA hourly metered load data**

## Historical Monthly “Regulated” Water Year Sequences 1929-1969 

**Historical Monthly “Regulated” Water Year Sequences 1929-1969 **
**Source: HydSim (BPA)**

## Histogram diagrams ...after “n” water, load, outage, scenarios 

**Megawatt Flow from Node_A to Node_ B**

**Histogram diagrams ...after “n” water, load, outage, scenarios**** **

**Node_A**

**Node_B**

**Positive Energy Flow on Path from A to B**

**0**

**hour = 8**

**hour = 10**

**hour = 9**

**hour = 11**

**Time**

**Scenario 1**

## In order to address these type of questions we will need to consider such things as:     

**Adopt principles of “System Dynamics”, e.g., demand-price responsiveness, time and space correlations between hydro inflows, gas prices, loads, etc. **
**Incorporate uncertainty into the decision making logic so that it  reflects “imperfect” knowledge.  **
**Integrate long-term resource expansion logic into the formulation.**
**Integrate hydro dispatch into the formulation.**
**Develop more efficient/comprehensive input-output systems.**
**Market power and use of hedging mechanisms such as long-term power contracts.**

**In order to address these type of questions we will need to consider such things as:     **

## Proposal:

**Form a workgroup to look into:**
**	****a) What incremental improvements could we make to our **_**current**_** modeling techniques?**
**	****b) What questions do we **_**need**_** to answer that we can’t answer today? **
**	****c) What physics and economics would we need to model in order to answer these additional questions?**
**	****d) Is this level of modeling detail feasible?**
**	****e) What would it cost – how long would it take?**