# Presentation: 715507

## International Energy Outlook:

**Administrator**
**Energy Information Administration**

**RISK Conference 2008**
**Groningen University**
**Groningen, The Netherlands**
**March 6, 2008**

***International Energy Outlook:***
**The Future of Energy**

## EIA was established by the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977
Independent since its foundation
375 Federal employees and about 250 contractors
$90 million budget  in 2007

- EIA was established by the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977
- Independent since its foundation
- 375 Federal employees and about 250 contractors
- $90 million budget  in 2007

## Data Collection
EIA has about 80 surveys and data forms related to energy supplies and production, energy consumption, greenhouse gases, and finance
Analysis
EIA provides analyses that evaluate the impacts of regulation on energy markets
Forecasting
EIA provides short-term and long-term forecasts of energy markets for the United States and the world

- Data Collection
- EIA has about 80 surveys and data forms related to energy supplies and production, energy consumption, greenhouse gases, and finance
- Analysis
- EIA provides analyses that evaluate the impacts of regulation on energy markets
- Forecasting
- EIA provides short-term and long-term forecasts of energy markets for the United States and the world

## Business/Industry (39%)
Citizen (14%)
Research/Consulting (14%)
Finance (10%)
Academia (10%)
Government (9%)
Media (2%)
Other (5%)

- Business/Industry (39%)
- Citizen (14%)
- Research/Consulting (14%)
- Finance (10%)
- Academia (10%)
- Government (9%)
- Media (2%)
- Other (5%)

## EIA Impacts Energy Markets:

**Natural Gas Markets Rely Heavily on EIA Weekly Data**

**EIA’s release of its Natural Gas Storage Data has immediate impact on the natural gas market**
- NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Near-Month Futures Contract June 28 - 29, 2006; Bloomberg data 7/24/06.

## Major Trends in the IEO2007 ...

- Total world energy use rises by 57 percent in the reference case projection.
- The high world oil prices in the *IEO200*7 reference case are projected to make previously uneconomical, unconventional resources economical, and they provide 10.5 million barrels per day of the world supply by 2030.
- Coal is the fastest growing energy source worldwide, increasing on average by 2.2 percent per year. Natural gas and renewables each increase by an average of 1.9 percent per year. Liquid fuels grow by 1.4 percent per year.
- The Middle East accounts for substantial shares of the world’s total increase for liquids, 45 percent of the world total, and natural gas, 22 percent, through 2030.
- Non-OECD Asia energy use, especially in China and India, is expected to more than double between 2004 and 2030 and will rely increasingly on the Middle East to fulfill its oil and natural gas needs.
- Higher fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns, improved reactor designs, and environmental considerations are expected to improve the prospects for nuclear power generation, which is 14 percent higher in 2030 than in the previous outlook.
- Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030.

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2005 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

**Reference**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**$100**

**$59**

**$36**

## World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**34%**

**8%**

**28%**

**6%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

**24%**

**38%**

**26%**

**23%**

**7%**

**6%**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## World Marketed Energy Consumption(quadrillion Btu)

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

- History

- Projections

**240**

**207**

**298**

**404**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## Average Annual GDP and Population Growthfor Selected Regions, 2004-2030 (percent)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Liquids Consumption, 2004 and 2030(million barrels per day)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Liquids Production, 2004-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent)

**Non-OPEC (Conventional)**

**OPEC (Conventional)**

**Unconventional**

**Total**

**53**

**10**

**54**

**118**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## Non-OPEC Producing Regions with More than a One-Million-Barrel-per-Day Increase in Production, (million barrels per day oil equivalent)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## OPEC Conventional Liquids Production(million barrels per day)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Unconventional Liquids Production, 1980-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent)

- Other includes shale oils and other unidentified sources of unconventional liquid fuels.

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## World Proved Oil Reserves, as of January 1, 2008(billion barrels)

*Oil & Gas Journal, *Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007)

**World Total =**
**1,332 billion barrels**

## World Natural Gas Consumption, 2004-2030(trillion cubic feet)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Natural Gas Production, 2004-2030(trillion cubic feet)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2008, andCumulative Consumption, 2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

**World Natural Gas Reserves =**
**6,186 Trillion Cubic Feet**
**World Cumulative Consumption,**
** ****2004-2030 =**
** ****3,759 Trillion Cubic Feet**

**Reserves**

**Cumulative Consumption, 2004-2030**

*International Energy Outlook 2007 *and* **Oil & Gas Journal, *Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007)

## World Coal Consumption, 2004-2030(quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Electric Power Generation, 1980-2030

**World Electric Power Generation, 1980-2030**
**(trillion kilowatthours)**

**Non-OECD**

**OECD**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

## World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004-2030(trillion kilowattours)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Renewable Energy Use, 2004-2030(quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region(billion metric tons)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-2030 (billion metric tons)

**Coal**

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Total**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

**43%**

**39%**

**40%**

**20%**

**36%**

**21%**

## Key Uncertainties in the Projections

- Macroeconomic growth
- Energy prices
- Technological changes
- Government policy initiatives

## World Gross Domestic Product in Three Cases(trillion 2000 U.S. dollars)

**Reference Case**

**High Economic Growth Case**

**Low Economic Growth Case**

- History

- Projections

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu)

**Reference Case**

**High Economic Growth Case**

**Low Economic Growth Case**

- History

- Projections

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## World Oil Price, 1980-2030

**World Oil Price, 1980-2030**
**(2005 dollars per barrel)**

- History

- Projections

**Reference**

**Low Price**

**High Price**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**$100**

**$59**

**$36**

## World Marketed Energy Consumption, 2030(quadrillion Btu)

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

## U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption, 2005-2030

**(million barrels per day)**

**2010**

**2020**

**20.8**

**21.6**

**21.0**

**24.0**

**27.0**

**Transportation**

**Residential and**
**Commercial**

**Industrial**

**Electric Power**

**2030**

**22.0**

**22.9**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 and Preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2008*****, March 2008**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2007*****, May 2007, next issue May 2008**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2007***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****Dec 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**