# Presentation: 516807

## The 2008 NAME Forecast Forum

- Lindsey N. Long
- Wyle Information Systems
- Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA
- October 20, 2008
- 2008 Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop
- Lincoln, NE
- Acknowledgements:  David Gochis, NCAR
- 		         Wei Shi, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Kingtse Mo,
-                                       CPC/NCEP
- 		        Myong-In Lee and Siegfried Schubert, GMAO/GSFC/NASA
- 		        John Roads, Masao Kanamitsu, Laurel DeHaan and
- 		            Elena Yulaeva, ECPC/UCSD

## Outline

- What is the Forecast Forum?
- The 2008 North American Monsoon Season
- Model Output available on the Forecast Forum
- Products currently included in the forum
- Products we are experimenting with for inclusion next year

## The NAME Forecast Forum

- Proposed at the NAME SWG9 as a NAME Project legacy activity
- Goal: To provide real-time consolidation and assessment of intra-seasonal and seasonal monsoon forecasts
- Model forecasts posted before start of monsoon
- Initial conditions: March and April
- Observed monsoon precipitation tracked in real-time during the season
- Adopted as part of the CPC global monsoon monitoring activities

## http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_

**http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_**
**               ****Monsoons/NAME/index.shtml**

## For the initial implementation in 2008, only precipitation is monitored in terms of:

- Spatial Maps of Monthly Precipitation
- 2. 	Daily Zonal Precipitation Accumulation Time Series
- 		- Updated Daily

**Notes:**
Delineated to reflect precip mode differences in north and south Mexico, east and west slopes of moutains, border regios and Baja California

## The 2008 Season

## JJAS 2008 Monthly Precipitation Average - URD

**JJAS 2008 Monthly Precipitation Average - URD**

## Interannual Variations

-                  La Nina
-                  Neutral

**Interannual Variations**

**2008 = Wet Year**

## Onset date is July 4th

-              79-95 climatology

**Onset date is July 4****th**

## Tropical Storms in Eastern Pacific, May - September, 2008

- (**Courtesy of UNISYS)**

**  ****During June-Sept, 2008, there were ****5**** hurricanes, ****6**** named tropical storms (TS) and ****6**** tropical depressions in the eastern tropical Pacific**
**  ****TSs brought plenty of rainfall to NAM region via GOC moisture surges**

## Moisture Surge and Rainfall

**Boris**

**Fausto**

**Hernan**

**Iselle**

**Depression 11E**

- (b)

- (a)

**Moisture Surge and Rainfall**

- Good correspondences between surges and rainfall.
- However, there were surges NOT related to tropical storms

- _Tropical storms in east Pacific associated with NAM rainfall__:_
- Hurricane-1 Boris Jun 27-Jul 4
- Hurricane-2 Elida Jul 12-29
- Hurricane-2 Fausto Jul 16-22
- Hurricane-1 Genevieve Jul 21-27
- Hurricane-3 Hernan Aug 6-13
- TS Iselle Aug 13-17
- Depression 11E Aug 21-23

- (Courtesy of Dr. K. Mo)

**Jul 1**

**Aug 30**

## Summary of 2008 Season

- During JJAS 08, both the southwest US (AZNM) and NAM Core area received **above-average precipitation**
- Onset date: **July 4****th** in AZ/NM region
- Based on rainfall data
- Climatological Onset ~ July 3rd
**Very wet July** associated with active TC activities in Eastern Pacific and GOC moisture surges

## The Forecast:So how do the models do?

## Slide 14

## JJAS 2008

**JJAS 2008**
**URD**

**GMAO IC04**

**          ****CFS IC04**

## JJAS 2008

**JJAS 2008**
**URD**

**ECPC-CM IC04**

**   ****ECPC-DS IC04**

## (NW Mexico)

**(NW Mexico)**

## (Arizona)

**(Arizona)**

## (New Mexico)

**(New Mexico)**

## (Baja)

**(Baja)**

## 4 Corners

**4 Corners**

**S. CA**

**New Mexico**

**Arizona**

## Baja

**Baja**

**NW Mexico**

**SW Mexico**

**Central Mexico**

## 2008 Tropical Cyclones Produced by the CFS 

_**Blue Tropical Storm**_
- Duration: Jul 12 – 29
- Min Press: 1003 mb
- Max Winds: 43 knots

_**Green Tropical Storm**_
- Duration: Jun 17 – Jul 5
- Min Press: 982 mb
- Max Winds: 78 knots

_**Orange Tropical Storm**_
- Duration: Aug 10 – 30
- Min Press: 981 mb
- Max Winds:  86 knots

_**Brown Tropical Storm**_
- Duration: Sep 12 – 29
- Min Press: 981 mb
- Max Winds:  86 knots

**2008 Tropical Cyclones Produced by the CFS**** **

## Moisture Surge and Rainfall - CFS

**Coincides with Green TS**

**Blue TS passing near Gulf**

**Orange TS passing near Gulf**

**Brown TS passing near Gulf**

**Moisture Surge and Rainfall - CFS**

## Summary

- Global models failed to capture the monsoon precipitation
- ECPC down-scaled regional model captured the above normal rainfall during the monsoon season in NW Mexico, AZ and NM regions
- Further investigation needed into the merit of regional down-scaling (daily climatology)
- Frequent surge events over Gulf of California related to tropical storm activities over the Eastern Pacific
- Additional parameters for Forum next year
- NAME Forecast Forum will be part of the CPC monsoon season review at the end of October
- Future plan to continue the Forecast Forum and expand to include South American monsoon system
- We would like to encourage additional modellers to consider joining the Forum

## Thank YouQuestions?

## (SW Mexico)

**(SW Mexico)**

## CFS

**CFS**
**IC=Apr**

**Obs**

**Moisture Surges from July – August 2008**