# Presentation: 224976

## ISFS ProjectScience Team Report

- ISFS Science Team
- Presented by Jeff Morisette
*Goddard Space Flight Center*

## Outline

- Science Team Summary
- Science Plan Overview & Discussion
- Advancing three science themes
- Organized by a series of Modeling tasks
- Research Reports
- EOS / Value-Added MODIS
- IDS / Biological Fingerprinting
- IDS / Avian Bioenergetics Modeling
- Large-Scale Assessments

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Science Team Summary

_**Partners & Projects**_
- Partners:  USGS, CSU, USDA, Ag & Forest Service, NPS, Stennis Space Center, EO-1 and ASTER teams, Tamarisk Coalition, Colorado DNR, Miss. State U, UMaine, George Mason University
- Projects:
- • 	Valued added EOS products (Morisette)
- IDS1: Biological Fingerprinting (Stohlgren)
- IDS2: Avian Bioenergetics Modeling (Smith)

_**Performance & Schedule**_
- √ Jan ’04:	IDL Software training at GSFC
- √ Mar ’04:	T-Map and “NIISS-web” established
- √ Mar ’04:	Software to ingest MODIS VI time series
- √ Mar ’04:	Software to summarize MODIS VI time series
**√** May ‘04:	First Draft of “Science Plan”
- √	May ‘04:	“Value Added” project funding start
- Jun/Jul ’04: “IDS 1” project funding start
- Aug ‘04	ESA presentation on the need for time series analysis
- Aug ’04	Manuscript submitted on time series work
- ’04/’05 	Tamarisk modeling efforts
- ’04/’05	Cheatgrass/thistle modeling efforts
- ’04	Eastern US “pilot study”
- ’04/’05	Eastern US/Aquatics proposal/project
- ’05/’06	Interaction with LTER, starting with Konza Prairie
- ’05/’06	Study impacts of fire at Cerro Grande
- ’05 on...	Use maps for where invasive species *are* to start exploring *how they became established*, and inferring *where they will go*.

_**Status & Issues**_
- • 	Currently exploring MODIS Vegetation index
- Additional MODIS products and meteorological data are next to be considered
- ISFS database will help manage growing archive
- Funding through the “Value added” project will   allow further exploration of stat. Models
- Funding for Biological fingerprinting will address key issues and expand area

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Collaborators

**USGS/CSU**
- Stohlgren, – lead collaborators
- Kalkhan, Reich – statiatical modeling
- Evangelista/Graham/Newman/Crossier – field data to ingest
**Agencies/NGO**
- USDA, ARS – Hyperspectral airborne imagery over Tamarisk, Curruthers, Delfouse
- USDA Forest Service – Colorado mapping pilot project, Czaplewski
- Colorado DNR– Colorado mapping pilot project
- NPS
- Tamarisk Coalition – Bill Cheatum, Tamarisk modeling
**Universities**
- Miss. State U: Bruce – feature extraction, Madsen - aquatics
- Umaine: Eickhorst -  spatio-temporal helix modeling
- George Mason University: Gentle/Cai, - statistical analysis, Garnet – field spectra & aquatics
- U.Alabama, Huntsville – Graves, expertise of Earth Science data/metadata
** ****NASA**
- Application Division: Scheffner and Turner
- Stennis Space Center, McKellip – applications program, Griffith – Tamarisk with ASTER
- EO-1 team – at GSFC, hyperspectral satellite imagery
- ASTER team – multi-temporal, multi-spectral imagery

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Science Plan

**“...****careful observation of current patterns of the invasion of nonnative plant species in natural landscapes might provide a  reasonable staring point for the design of more realistic experiments and mathematical models, and in the search of a generalized theory of invasion.”**
- Stohlgren, “Beyond Theories of Plant Invasions: Lesson From Natural Landscapes”, Comments on Tehoretical Biology, 7: 355-379, 2002.

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Science Plan: Major Themes

**The research plan is designed to advance three major science themes:**
**Application of new data sources, focusing on EOS products,**
**Advancing biological modeling techniques for species distributions, and**
**Increasing the geographical extent for biological distribution modeling.**** **

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Science Plan: Research Strategy

**The science plan has been organized into a series of ten modeling tasks designed specifically to achieve the project’s overall goals. **
**These modeling tasks fall into six main categories:**
**Species richness**
**Cheatgrass and Canadian Thistle **
**Tamarisk**
**Native vs Non-native grasses **
**Woody Encroachment **
**Aquatic Species **

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Science Plan: Research Strategy

**Modeling Exercise:**
**1.1****	****Total Plants at Three Study Sites**

**Main Category: 1 - Species Richness**

*Theme A:*
**New Data**

*Theme B:*
**Better Models**

*Theme C:*
**Extent**

- Introduce MODIS data to ISFS

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Science Plan: Research Strategy

**Modeling Exercise:**
**2.1****	****RMNP**
**2.2****	****Colorado**
**2.3****	****Western US**

**Main Category: 2 - ****Cheatgrass and Canadian Thistle **

- EOS, met, and GIS layers

- Model and variable selection

- Field data from multiple sources – NIISS web system w/ ISDS

- Validation and uncertainty information

- From local to state level

- Field data from inter-state, inter-agency sources

- Predictions with sparse data

- From local to near-national level

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Science Plan: Research Strategy

**Modeling Exercise:**
**3.1****	****w/ Hyperion**
**3.2****	****w/ ASTER**
**3.3****	****in ISFS**

**Main Category: 3 - ****Tamarisk**

- Hyperspectral Satellite data

- Hyperspectral classification

- Multi-temporal ASTER data & sensor web

- multi-spectral, multi-temporal and meteorologically based prediction of phenology

- From small Hyperion or airborne footprint to ASTER coverage

- EOS, met, and GIS layers
- T-map data

- Exploit the statistical modeling framework of the ISFS

- Extend to T-map coverage

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Science Plan: Research Strategy

**Modeling Exercise:**
**4.1****	****Native/Non-native grass distribution at Cerro Grande fire site**

**Main Category: 4 – Native vs Non-Native grasses**

*Theme A:*
**New Data**

*Theme B:*
**Better Models**

*Theme C:*
**Extent**

- MODIS fire and burnt area products

- Replicate modeling techniques from 2.1

- Fire disturbance sites

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Science Plan: Research Strategy

**Modeling Exercise:**
**5.1****	****Quantify Woody expansion at Konza Prairie LTER**

**Main Category: 5 – Woody Encroachment**

*Theme A:*
**New Data**

*Theme B:*
**Better Models**

*Theme C:*
**Extent**

- MODIS: fire, land cover change and percent tree cover

- Replicate modeling techniques from 2.1

- Outreach to LTER network

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Science Plan: Research Strategy

**Modeling Exercise:**
**6.1****	****Utilizing Hyperspectral data to map Phragmites**

**Main Category: 6 – Aquatics Species**

*Theme A:*
**New Data**

*Theme B:*
**Better Models**

*Theme C:*
**Extent**

- Hyperspectral Satellite data

- Application of modeling to aquatic species

- East and Southeast US

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting

## Mapping Exercises by main categories with interdependencies

**Species****Richness**

**Cheatgrass*****Thistle**

**Tamarisk***

**Native/****Non-Native****grass**

**Woody****Encroachment**

**Aquatics**

**Mapping Exercises ****by main categories with interdependencies**

- * Contribute to “Grand Challenge”

*ESA presentation**& Manuscript *

- ISFS Project Science Team Meeting