# Presentation: 204963

## AVIATION  WEATHER  UPDATE

**Meteorological  Services  and  Supporting  Research**

**AVIATION  WEATHER  UPDATE**

- July 25,  2000

**Notes:**
Thank you for introduction

Pleased to be here to provide a status update on the 
important work that members of your staff have been accomplishing on your behalf and on behalf of the public.

Long steady improvement in aviation safety that has plateau’d out.  1997 White House Commission admitted that most problem areas have been addressed and technological advances have been carefully exploited.  Only through government industry collaboration can we gain any further ground.

## AVIATION  WEATHER  JOINT  ACTION  GROUP

**NATIONAL  FOCUS**

**Coordinated  aviation  weather  system**
**	****for  strategic  and  tactical  decisions**

**Notes:**
The Joint Action Group’s (JAG’s) purpose was to formulate the weather requirements needed to be be responsive to the 1997 White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security.  

Delay cost carrier $400M per year

The Commission had set a safety of on an 80% reduction in the fatal accident rate by 2007.

Most of the fatal accidents are GA, so most of the effort has to be focused there.   Air carrier average about 60 accidents per year, GA averages around 1800.  Keep in mind, though, that while there are only about  10,000 air carrier captains, there are over 600,000 licensed pilots.

Focus primarily on pilots, and controllers.  Secondarily on dispatch... only impacts carrier community.

## JOINT  ACTION  GROUP

**Who  is  represented?**
**How  long  has  this  been  going  on?**

**Notes:**
Representatives primarily mid-level managers from 
	FAA including AT
	NASA
	USDA
	Air Force
	Army
	Navy

	NTSB observed from time to time

Initial work began in 1996  

Progress slow but steady

## PROCESS  OVERVIEW

**PROCESS  OVERVIEW**

**Assessment  of  where  we  are **
**Develop  the   “big  picture”**
**Develop  the  details**
**Initiate  action **

**Notes:**
The general process focused on assessing where we are, or were, in 1996 and 1997, developing a global idea of what general sorts of problems should be addressed, followed by construction of detailed plans for addressing them, and finally, the initiation of the actions that “make it all come true.”

Elements contained in the work of the JAG are also contained in the independently derived work of the  FAA’s Safer Skies initiatives.  

## ASSESSING  WHERE  WE  ARE, 

**Tier  one**
**Isolating  the  issues?**
**Can  we  legislate  judgement?**
**Well,  then......**
**Results**

**ASSESSING  WHERE  WE  ARE, **
**OR  WERE**

**Notes:**
Tier one began in late 1996

Agencies discussed what they were doing and began researching what the focus areas should ... or could be.

Fortunately, with this group we did not have to jump the hurdle of whether weather, per se, was an accident cause.  This is a persistent issue in the minds of the public... and one that we have to work on.  

The group determined that since judgement cannot be legislated, “Ya’ll don’t crash that helicopter now, ya hear?”  That collectively we would have to create better weather reporting and forecasts, assist pilots and controllers to make better and more timely decisions, and design and manufacture better aircraft.  

The result was the publication, in 1997 of the National Aviation Weather Strategic Plan.

## GETTING  TO  THE  DETAILS

**Tier  two**
**Specific,  focused,  measures **
**Setting  priorities**
**Results**

**GETTING  TO  THE  DETAILS**

**Notes:**
Focus was to develop specific things that needed to be done in several areas, and then to prioritized them according to their contribution to accident prevention.  

Important to note that priority setting somewhat lacking in GA focus.  

Result was the publication, in April, 1999, of  the National Aviation Weather Implementation Plan

## SERVICE  DESIGN

**Tier  three**
**Solution - based  tasks**
**Reconcile  ongoing  work**
**Results**

**Notes:**
The focus of tier 3 is to identify who is doing what, and to find the holes that need to be worked on.

Some of the projects require long term infrastructure development and capital investment planning.  Others are non material solutions such as procedures and scientific research.  

## MAKING  IT  ALL  HAPPEN

**Tier  four**
**Budgets  and  schedules**
**Results**

**Notes:**
Here’s the place where the rubber meets the runway.

In tier 4 we have to actually secure financial resources, allocate the personnel and fiscal resources, and establish and track schedules.  

Will be necessary to continue to compare notes about who has been successful with what... and to stick up for each other during the budget process.  The FAA was pleased, just two weeks ago, to testify on the Hill in support of the NOAA budget, and to testify to the importance the FAA places on its partnerships with NOAA, NASA, and DoD.    

## WHAT’S  COMING  UP?

**Complete  reconciliation  process**
**Reassess  priorities**

**Notes:**
Need to have an ongoing reconciliation process, and some ability to transfer tasks from one agency to another where that seems to make sense.  OFCM the pivotal player here.

The Federal Coordinator has proposed that he convene an aviation users meeting where we ask the users to tell us what they have done to meet the initiatives, and what they are going to do.   This will be different from the meetings where the users give Federal agencies a list of things they want us to do.  No.  This forum is for the users to step up to the plate and talk about what they are going to contribute to their own well being.  

## LONGER  TERM

**Individual  actions**
**	****R,  E,  &  D**
**	****Product  Display**
**Architecture  integration**
**New  procedures  and  training**
**Decision  support  technology**

**Notes:**
Longer term - meaning three to five years out - and I know that sounds short, but at the speed of some of the research and technology projects, 3 to 5 years is a long time.  But three or certainly not more than five years out we need to start this process all over again.  The actual weather will be the same, but the aircraft, the pilots, their training, the controllers and their training will have changed a lot.  Widespread use of GPS navigation will mean that the old systems of air routes are no longer viable, and FAA will need to interact with its system users in a different way.  
Pilots, mostly all flying direct, will require different weather support than they do now.  Different products and and different delivery system.  Controllers will have to have different procedures.  Everyone will need a different type of training that what we are developing in response to the implementation plan.

It’s déjà vu all over again!

## Thank  you  for  your  help... 

**and  your  continued  support!**