# Presentation: 580692

## Overview of Navy’s System for Global Modeling of Sulfate, Smoke & Dust

**Anthony Bucholtz**
**Piotr Flatau**
**Arunas Kuciauskas**
**Ming Liu**
**Betsy Reid**
**Jeffrey Reid**
**Kim Richardson**
**Annette Walker**
**Aerosol and Radiation Modeling Section**
**Marine Meteorology Division**
**Naval Research Laboratory**
**Monterey CA 93943**
**www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol**

**Overview of Navy’s System for Global Modeling of Sulfate, Smoke & Dust**

## Conventional Navy view:

- Marine aerosol (salt, sulfate) in marine boundary layer
- Locally produced
- EO propagation, TAWS, slant range visibility
- But there are other aerosols and impacts:
- Dust, smoke, pollution
- Long-range transport
- Operational constraints
- mission planning
- hazard avoidance
- navigation
- Numerical weather prediction
- direct effect
- indirect effect
- Satellite analyses
- SST retrievals

**Notes:**
Aerosols have potential to impact a wide range of Navy activities, with occasional catastrophic consequences.

Tactical planning and execution Iranian hostage rescue mission failed partly due to aerosols. Heavy amounts can cause engine failure (volcanic, dust). Weapon selection determined by expected visibility and weather. Many missions in Desert Storm were aborted due to aerosols.
Defense  Ship defense in coastal waters. Navy concern is whether they can detect incoming weapons. Surf-generated aerosol obscures hostile attacks. Aerosol locally generated (sulfur chemistry, sea salt) as well as transported from distant sources.
Strategic planning/Counter-proliferation Important to minimize collateral damage from strategic and counter-proliferation activities
Weather prediction Weather modified by the direct and indirect effects of aerosols. Radiative heating modifies mass and momentum fields.  SST retrievals degraded by presence of aerosols.  Aerosols modify cloud microphysics and optical properties.

## Dust Over the Red Sea, 18 July, 1999

**Dust Over the Red Sea, 18 July, 1999**

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## Mediterranean, 15 April, 2000

- Southwest Asia, 10 October, 2001

## Pollution and Smoke over the Atlantic

- June 28, 2001
- SeaWiFS

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## October 28, 2002

- SeaWiFS

**Notes:**
Photograph of Montserrat eruption

Volcanic ash can be advected long distances and impact Navy operations areas in the Caribbean (Vieques)

Considering the ‘Ring of Fire’, we realize that this is a global problem.  Recall Pinataubo.

## “... helicopters encountered  ... several large layers of suspended dust about 190 nm long.  Like flying in a milk bowl ... pilots unable to see the surface from as low as 75 feet.”  NDU staff report on Iran Hostage Rescue Mission

“After sunrise the visibility reduced to less than 1 nautical mile in blowing dust, prompting all squadrons to immediately begin preserving topside aircraft. ... the harbor pilot was told that visibility was down to less than 1⁄4 mile at the harbor and that no traffic would be moved until the visibility improved.”  USS Carl Vinson, U.A.E, February 1999

“The ability to have DAMPS generate a dust forecast out to 48 hrs would provide us with an ability to reschedule flight operations or move ships to other locations.  In the eleven months I’ve been out here, dust has had the biggest impact on limiting and/or canceling operations that have taken place in this AOR.”  CO NAVCENTMETOCCEN, Bahrain, July 2000

At Roosevelt Roads/Vieques, Puerto Rico, drone operations over practice ranges were cancelled by conditions of reduced visibility due to Saharan dust; interfered with gunnery training schedules (couldn’t visually certify range was clear)

**“****After sunrise the visibility reduced to less than 1 nautical mile in blowing dust, prompting all squadrons to immediately begin ****preserving topside aircraft****. ... the harbor pilot was told that visibility was down to less than 1⁄4 mile at the harbor and that ****no traffic would be moved**** until the visibility improved.”  USS Carl Vinson, U.A.E, February 1999**
**“****The ability to have DAMPS generate a dust forecast out to 48 hrs would provide us with an ability to reschedule flight operations or move ships to other locations.  In the eleven months I’ve been out here, ****dust has had the biggest impact on limiting and/or canceling operations**** that have taken place in this AOR.”  CO NAVCENTMETOCCEN, Bahrain, July 2000**
**At Roosevelt Roads/Vieques, Puerto Rico, drone operations over practice ranges were ****cancelled by conditions of reduced visibility**** due to Saharan dust; interfered with gunnery training schedules (couldn’t visually certify range was clear)**

## Aerosol climatology required for selection of High Energy Lasers

- Focused on marine boundary layer (for ship defense)

## Impact of Aerosols on NWP:

**Impact of Aerosols on NWP:**
**Example of Visible Direct Effect**

- SEAWIFS Visible wavelength imagery for March 17, 2002
- Plume of aerosol leaving Asia composed of dust, pollution and other aerosols
- Direct effects are obvious
- Indirect effects are possible as aerosol is entrained into synoptic weather system

**Notes:**
Magnitude of these effects is determined by aerosol concentration, composition, horizontal and vertical gradients, cloud properties, wavelength, and atmospheric state variables such as temperature and humidity
Effects further complicated by mixing and interaction between aerosols from different sources (eg. dust, sulfate, biomass and sea salt in East Asia)
Unique NRL capability allows realistic global and regional simulations of the relevant variables using NAAPS coupled with NOGAPS and COAMPS
Measurements of these quantities will be made in the West Pacific during ACE-Asia and other relevant research programs

## ACE-Asia  Experiment, April 2001
Shipboard deployment
Sea of Japan (subject to dust storms from China)
Main result: increased downward infrared flux due to dust in atmosphere

- Shipboard deployment
- Sea of Japan (subject to dust storms from China)
- Main result: increased downward infrared flux due to dust in atmosphere

- Infrared perturbation (W/m**2)

## Impact of Aerosols on NWP:

**Impact of Aerosols on NWP:**
**Example of Indirect Effect**

- AVHRR Near-IR imagery for May 14, 1994, from MAST
- “Ship tracks” are variations in cloud albedo due to aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties
- Large-scale changes in cloud albedo likely due to polluted vs. clean air

- Large-Scale Albedo Change

- Ship Tracks

## Slide 12

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## (El Niño)

- Dust Contamination

- Smoke Effect

- Cummings/FNMOC

**Notes:**
Global plot of SST anomaly, retrieved from satellite.
Important for tropical cyclone forecasting in Atlantic and Pacific

El Niño signal quite evident
Note also the apparent cold anomalies due to dust and smoke in the atmosphere.

## Why Global?Long-Range Transport

- Often assumed that aerosol is locally produced and can be modeled based on local variables, ignoring long-range transport
- However,
- Intercontinental aerosol transport occurs frequently
- Regional aerosols can be significantly impacted by non-local sources
- Other reasons for global modeling:
- Regional aerosol simulations require initial and boundary conditions
- Validation data are scarce; validate model wherever data are available

**Notes:**
Aerosols have potential to impact a wide range of Navy activities, with occasional catastrophic consequences.

Tactical planning and execution Iranian hostage rescue mission failed partly due to aerosols. Heavy amounts can cause engine failure (volcanic, dust). Weapon selection determined by expected visibility and weather. Many missions in Desert Storm were aborted due to aerosols.
Defense  Ship defense in coastal waters. Navy concern is whether they can detect incoming weapons. Surf-generated aerosol obscures hostile attacks. Aerosol locally generated (sulfur chemistry, sea salt) as well as transported from distant sources.
Strategic planning/Counter-proliferation Important to minimize collateral damage from strategic and counter-proliferation activities
Weather prediction Weather modified by the direct and indirect effects of aerosols. Radiative heating modifies mass and momentum fields.  SST retrievals degraded by presence of aerosols.  Aerosols modify cloud microphysics and optical properties.

## Background: Composite of Several Retrievals of TOMS Absorbing Aerosol Index

## Dust: Red Arrows,   Smoke: Blue Arrows 

**Dust: Red Arrows,   ****Smoke: Blue Arrows**** **
**Background: Composite of several TOMS retrievals of Aerosol Index**

## Objectives:

- Forecast global and regional distribution of aerosols
- Measure and model the optical effects of aerosols
- Forecast slant range visibility
- Determine the importance of aerosol effects for NWP
- Approach:
- Modeling
- Global and regional predictive aerosol transport models with emphasis
** **on dynamical forcing and transport, rather than microphysics and chemistry
- Data assimilation of satellite data
- Theoretical
- Calculate scattering by individual particles
- Develop accurate and efficient forward modeling methods for NWP
- Experimental
- Verify theoretical calculations using in situ and remotely sensed data
- Validate transport models with in situ and satellite data

**Notes:**
Aerosols have potential to impact a wide range of Navy activities, with occasional catastrophic consequences.

Tactical planning and execution Iranian hostage rescue mission failed partly due to aerosols. Heavy amounts can cause engine failure (volcanic, dust). Weapon selection determined by expected visibility and weather. Many missions in Desert Storm were aborted due to aerosols.
Defense  Ship defense in coastal waters. Navy concern is whether they can detect incoming weapons. Surf-generated aerosol obscures hostile attacks. Aerosol locally generated (sulfur chemistry, sea salt) as well as transported from distant sources.
Strategic planning/Counter-proliferation Important to minimize collateral damage from strategic and counter-proliferation activities
Weather prediction Weather modified by the direct and indirect effects of aerosols. Radiative heating modifies mass and momentum fields.  SST retrievals degraded by presence of aerosols.  Aerosols modify cloud microphysics and optical properties.

## Observations

- Remote Sensing

- Global and Regional
- Aerosol Analyses

- Global
- Aerosol Model

- NOGAPS

- Extend
- knowledge
- base

- Implement existing knowledge

- Transition to
- customer

**Notes:**
The prediction of aerosol impacts on Navy activities covers multiple scales, and involves combining observations with simulations, as does NWP.
Therefore, a modeling system similar to that used in NWP is warranted.
This flowchart outlines the system being built at NRL/MRY under the 6.2 Aero/NRL and 6.2 Aero/ONR programs and utilized in this work unit.

## Twice-daily, 5-day forecasts of SO2, sulfate, dust and smoke
Operational global weather model (NOGAPS) provides forecasts of P, T, q, u, v, w, Kz, cloud parameters, precip., stress, and ground wetness at 6-hour intervals on 1X1 degree grid; 14 levels to 100 mb
Semi-Lagrangian horizontal transport; finite element horizontal diffusion; finite element vertical transport
SO2 emission from GEIA inventory; oceanic DMS emission
Deflation depends on threshold velocity, forecasted stress and ground wetness
Smoke emission based on satellite detection of fires
Linear gas-phase chemistry
Dry deposition: function of specie, stress, stability, surface type
Wet removal: function of precipitation rate, specie, cloud type
        *Modified DEHM model (Christensen, Atm. Env., 1998)

- Twice-daily, 5-day forecasts of SO2, sulfate, dust and smoke
- Operational global weather model (NOGAPS) provides forecasts of P, T, q, u, v, w, Kz, cloud parameters, precip., stress, and ground wetness at 6-hour intervals on 1X1 degree grid; 14 levels to 100 mb
- Semi-Lagrangian horizontal transport; finite element horizontal diffusion; finite element vertical transport
- SO2 emission from GEIA inventory; oceanic DMS emission
- Deflation depends on threshold velocity, forecasted stress and ground wetness
- Smoke emission based on satellite detection of fires
- Linear gas-phase chemistry
- Dry deposition: function of specie, stress, stability, surface type
- Wet removal: function of precipitation rate, specie, cloud type
-         *Modified DEHM model (Christensen, Atm. Env., 1998)

## Total Optical Depth

- Dust Optical Depth

- Sulfate Optical Depth

- Smoke Optical Depth

## Analysis using NAAPS: JFK Jr. Study(collab. with Prospero@ U. Miami, Poirot@ Vermont)

- Real-Time NAAPS analyses allowed rapid response to crash:
- Determined atmospheric structure: deep continental boundary layer above shallow MBL
- Detected exceptional pollution event: high sulfate concentrations
- Results used in NTSB report
- Research mode:
- Validated with surface chemistry and satellite data
- Compared NAAPS emissions inventory to current emissions
- Diagnosed impact of uncontrolled Midwestern emissions on air quality of East Coast and New England

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## JFK Jr. Study:Accurate simulation of timing and location of anthropogenic aerosol plume

- SeaWiFS Imagery, 1620Z  16 July, 1999

- NAAPS AOD, 1800Z  16 July, 1999

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## JFK Jr. Study:Environmental conditions analyzed using NAAPS and NOGAPS

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## JFK Jr. Study

- Findings:
- Need to add other anthropogenic aerosols to NAAPS in order to quantify visibility/extinction
- JFK Jr. study shows GEIA dataset is outdated: some current sources greater than GEIA values; others less
- Conversion rates need modification (high ozone conc.  increases rate of conversion to sulfate)
- Uncontrolled Midwestern emissions responsible for most of the haze

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## Wildfire-ABBA uses GOES data to provide western hemisphere fires

Global MODIS fire product used for other regions

**Global Fire Detection**

- Wildfire-ABBA uses GOES data to provide western hemisphere fires
- Global MODIS fire product used for other regions

- GOES-8 Wildfire ABBA Summary
- Composite of Half-Hourly Processed and Saturated Fire Pixel Observations for the Western Hemisphere
- Time Period:   September 1, 2000 to August 31, 2001

## GOES Visible Imagery

- 14 UTC 10 August, 2000

- NAAPS Smoke Optical Depth
- 12 UTC 10 August, 2000

- Smoke Plume

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## Comparison of NAAPS Optical Depth andSeaWiFS True Color For 20 June, 2001

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## Smoke detected at DOE/ARM

- site in Oklahoma May 11 and 12 first attributed to Los Alamos Fires
- NAAPS shows smoke is a combination of two plumes:
- Transport of Los Alamos smoke
-   in elevated dry layer
- Transport of Central American
-   smoke in low-level moist layer

- 5/12       5/11        5/10        5/9

- NOGAPS RH, winds, θ

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## NAAPS Dust Source Specification

- USGS Landuse database (1 km resolution) used to identify erodible regions of the world (based on AVHRR data)
- TOMS Aerosol Index (AI) used to further refine source regions over Sahara and Middle East;  needs further refinement over Asia
- NOGAPS soil moisture must be less than 0.3
- NOGAPS surface stress must exceed a threshold value
- Then dust flux is proportional to square of stress

## NAAPS Dust Erodibility Specification:Based on USGS Landuse and TOMS/AI

**Dust emission allowed in proportion to the square of the stress in these areas when stress exceeds critical value and soil moisture is less than 0.3**

## NAAPS

- AERONET Data

- NAAPS Dust Optical Depth

- SeaWiFS True Color

## Comparison of TOMS AI and 

**Comparison of TOMS AI and **
**NAAPS Optical Depth for April 1998 Event**

- April 20

- April 22

- April 24

- April 26

- Green - dust, Red - sulfate aerosol

**Notes:**
TOMS images  show:
largest event over China occurred on April 19, 1998 
reaches the U.S.on 25th and 26th
 NAAPS captures the timing of this event and temporal and spatial aspects of the transport
NAAPS clarifies transport to arctic region (24th)

NAAPS able to ‘fill’ regions where cloud obscures satellite retrieval

NAAPS able to provide altitude and composition of aerosol plume to satellite retrieval for better result

Excellent comparison with satellite builds our confidence in model.

## Comparison of San Nicolas AERONET Sunphotometer and NAAPS Optical Depth for April 1998 Event: Captures timing, misses background aerosol

**Comparison of San Nicolas AERONET Sunphotometer and NAAPS Optical Depth for April 1998 Event: Captures timing, misses background aerosol**

**Notes:**
Figure 4. Time series of (a) aerosol optical thickness at 500 nm and (b) ngstrm coefficient between 380 and 1020 nm at San Nicolas Island during April 18 - May 1, 1998. Also shown in (a) are simulated optical depth (x 0.25) of dust and sulfate from NAAPS.

## LIDAR

- 7.5 KM

- NAAPS

- Pressure (mb)

- Concentration

- Backscatter   Depolarization

- 7.9 KM

**Notes:**
10 days after event, April 25, good correlation in time and space (vertical) between U. Utah (Salt Lake City) lidar and simulation

- Large dust storm on April 6-7, 2001, then swept across East Asia, the Pacific, and N. America
- Visibility reduced to 100 m in some Chinese cities
- Coincided with large international field program – ACE-Asia; provides additional data for validation

- Baicheng, Jilin Prov., April 7, 2001

- Baicheng, Jilin Prov., April 8, 2001

- SeaWiFS April 7, 2001

**Notes:**
Aerosols have potential to impact a wide range of Navy activities, with occasional catastrophic consequences.

Tactical planning and execution Iranian hostage rescue mission failed partly due to aerosols. Heavy amounts can cause engine failure (volcanic, dust). Weapon selection determined by expected visibility and weather. Many missions in Desert Storm were aborted due to aerosols.
Defense  Ship defense in coastal waters. Navy concern is whether they can detect incoming weapons. Surf-generated aerosol obscures hostile attacks. Aerosol locally generated (sulfur chemistry, sea salt) as well as transported from distant sources.
Strategic planning/Counter-proliferation Important to minimize collateral damage from strategic and counter-proliferation activities
Weather prediction Weather modified by the direct and indirect effects of aerosols. Radiative heating modifies mass and momentum fields.  SST retrievals degraded by presence of aerosols.  Aerosols modify cloud microphysics and optical properties.

## Slide 36

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## SeaWiFS Imagery

- 11 April 2001

- NAAPS Dust Optical Depth
- April 11, 2001

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## SeaWiFS Imagery

- April 19, 2001

- NAAPS Dust Optical Depth
- April 19, 2001

- Dust Plume

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## Slide 39

**Notes:**
Recent interest by academic community and non-defense agency’s in aerosols is fortuitous and will accelerate Navy progress in this area.

Navy interests are similar in most areas.

## SeaWiFS Study:Pixels Grouped According to NAAPS Simulation

**SeaWiFS Study:****Pixels Grouped According to NAAPS Simulation**

**Notes:**
NAAPS able to ‘fill’ regions where cloud obscures satellite retrieval

NAAPS able to provide altitude and composition of aerosol plume to satellite retrieval for better result

## SeaWiFS Study:Retrieval Fails for Aged Asian Dust Case

**SeaWiFS Study:****Retrieval Fails for Aged Asian Dust Case**

**Notes:**
NAAPS able to ‘fill’ regions where cloud obscures satellite retrieval

NAAPS able to provide altitude and composition of aerosol plume to satellite retrieval for better result

## Future Plans

**Future Plans**

- Update source specification
- Smoke (NASA FLAMBE)
- Add biome and seasonal dependence
- Apply persistence check to Wildfire-ABBA
- Use MODIS for detection outside of W. Hemisphere
- Update GEIA sulfur dioxide sources
- Add salt and black carbon components
- Analysis and simulation
- Develop transition path for use in screening for SST retrievals
- Assimilate satellite retrievals of aerosol properties
- Mesoscale generation  Global transport  Mesoscale impact
- Have developed mesoscale dust model, triply nested: 9, 27, an 81-km resolution
- Working on mesoscale source inventory to drive mesoscale dust model
- Continue validation using PRIDE, ACE/Asia, and other data
- Initiate aerosol monitoring at MRY including IOP: ADAM