# Presentation: 562431

## System-Wide Advancement of User-Centric Climate Forecast Products

**System-Wide Advancement of User-Centric Climate Forecast Products**

_**University of Arizona**_** **
**Holly Hartmann (hollyoregon@juno.com)**
**Ellen Lay**
**Damian Hammond**

_**NWS Climate Prediction Center**_
**Ed O’Lenic**
**Lloyd Thomas**
**Melissa Ou**
**Kenneth Pelman**

**Notes:**
Keep this title? 

List support? 

## User Issues with Climate Information

- Relevant forecast variables, regions (location & scale), seasons, lead times, performance characteristics
- Technical sophistication: base probabilities, distributions, statistics
- Role of of climate information and projections in decision making

**Common across many, but not all, stakeholders**
- Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products
- Have difficulty placing information in context – “connecting the dots”

**User Issues with Climate Information**

**Common across all groups: climate vs. weather**
- Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation
- Understand implications of uncertainty vs. false certainty
- Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill

## Perspectives on Climate Services

**Perspectives on Climate Services**

_**Principles for Public Sector Approach**_
**Equity vs. Impact vs. Return on Investment**
**Responsiveness to evolving needs **
**Focus on Process as well as Products**

## Our Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts

**Misinterpretation:** Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP
**Connecting Information:** Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record
**Forecast Quality:** Customized forecast verification
**Unique Needs for Products:** Dynamic, customizable products
**Easy Access:** Information management portfolio
**Connecting Information:** Newsletter/report generation

**Issue:** Approach		**Goal:** Products & Process!

- YR1

- YR3

- YR2

## Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users

** ****too much information**
** ****can’t discern ‘good’ from ‘bad’ information**

**Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users**

## Information Management: Collections of products from different sources stored in customer-based portfolios. 

- Save a history of work on each product, so you can return to your work any time, easily repeat past analyses using updated data.

**Report/Newsletter Generation**
-  create PDF reports of your product collections and analysis results for non-Internet users
-  automatically includes provider-mandated legends, data sourcing, logos, contact information, caveats, explanations
-  sections for intermediary’s value-added comments

**1. CLIDDSS: Climate Information Delivery & Decision Support System**

**Notes:**
Andrea Ray’s categories of use: consultation, consideration, incorporation, dialog about risks

## 1. CLIDDSS: Climate Information Delivery & DSS

- Provider
- Image

- Provider
- Image

- Provider Text

- Provider Text

- Provider Text

- Your Text

- Your Text

- Your Text

- Your Text

- First application: CLIMAS Border Climate Summary - March 2007

**1. CLIDDSS: Climate Information Delivery & DSS**

**Notes:**
CLIDDSS is an information portfolio manager and report generation system that was designed based on input from Arizona extension agents and the challenges they face in trying to efficiently organize information and analyses from many online sources into communications for their clients. 
The interface shown here allows the user (e.g., an extension agent) to work with products from external information providers (e.g., for the precipitation map shown here), rearrange the product and its ancillary information within a report layout, and input their own value added comments and local branding. The external information provider specifies connected product elements and retains their branding, too. 
CLIDDSS is being connected to the UA Forecast Evaluation Tool, a Dynamic Drought Index tool being extended to AZ and NM from researchers at the University of South Carolina, an agricultural climate risk tool being extended to NM from the Southeast Climate Consortium in Florida, forecast products issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center, among several others. 
CLIDDSS has been used to create the Border Climate Summary issued by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) at the UA, but will have broad use throughout Extension and the private sector. 

## 1. CLIDDSS: Information Management and Newsletter Generation

**We are actively seeking additional providers!**

**What Providers Get**
-  Control over ancillary content of products
-  Maintain their ‘brand’ and image
-  Track contextual use of products

**What Intermediaries Get**
-  Can focus on adding value rather than accessing data
-  Efficiency allows serving many more clients while hitting their individual needs
-  Can maintain their ‘brand’ and image
-  Interdisciplinary networking through group involvement in portfolio and report development
-  Proprietary information can be included, securely

**What Users Get**
-  Beginners benefit from experience of others, through access to pre-developed portfolios
-  Capacity-building through group/team-managed portfolios and reports
-  Customized translation by specialists of generic products
-  Expert screening of ‘good’ information

**1. CLIDDSS: Information Management and Newsletter Generation**

## 1. How CLIDDSS Works

- User’s computer has:
- Browser pointed to FET and

- Database stores:
-  product states (not raw products)
- All data except  locally stored images/text

- CLIDDSS Application

- Product states, raw images/text
- Provider Admin
- Report Creation
- Product Management

- Product Component  Retrieval Requests: (submits a product’s state)

- Product Submission Request

- Submitting Product State to CLIDDSS

- Product Components

- Return code

- User Customized Report Template

- Report can include:
- Products
- Images
- Text

- Hard drive stores:
- PDF Report(s)
- Locally saved images/text

- Persistence Layer allows CLIDDSS to be easily moved from one  database to another

## Product provider’s work

**Identify product components**
**Supporting text**
**Agency logo**
**Selection criteria**
**Create a SOAP service for product **
**Submit SOAP service WSDL file to CLIDDSS developers**
**Modify product HTML page to allow users to request product submission**

**Create a product submission service for CLIDDSS based on submitted WSDL file**
**Send back product submission WSDL file and service location**

**Product provider’s work**

**CLIDDSS Developer’s work**

**1. Steps to Become a Product Provider**

## Our Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts

**Misinterpretation:** Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP
**Connecting Information:** Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record
**Forecast Quality:** Customized forecast verification
**Unique Needs for Products:** Dynamic, customizable products
**Easy Access:** Information management portfolio
**Connecting Information:** Newsletter/report generation

**Issue:** Approach

- YR1

- YR3

- YR2

## NWS Local 3-month Temperature Outlook

**NWS Local 3-month Temperature Outlook**

**http://www.weather.gov/climate/l3mto.php**

- User-selected product formats

**2. Many product formats for diverse users**

## 2. User customization of products – building CPC capabilities

**2. User customization of products – building CPC capabilities**

## Our Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts

**Misinterpretation:** Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP
**Connecting Information:** Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record
**Forecast Quality:** Customized forecast verification
**Unique Needs for Products:** Dynamic, customizable products
**Easy Access:** Information management portfolio
**Connecting Information:** Newsletter/report generation

**Issue:** Approach

- YR1

- YR3

- YR2

## 3. http://fet.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/ 

**Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts**
**Now L3MTO station forecasts, Alaska**
**Six elements in our webtool:**
** *****Forecast Interpretation – Tutorials***
** *****Exploring Forecast Progression***
*** ******Historical Context***
*** ******Forecast Performance***
*** ******Use in Decision Making ***
*** ******Details: Forecast Techniques, Research***

- NWS Climate Services Division: Climate Focal Points at every WFO

**3. http://fet.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/**** **

## 3. Forecast Evaluation Tool: Linking Past, Present, Future 

**2004**

**2003**

**2005**

**3. Forecast Evaluation Tool: Linking Past, Present, Future**** **

- http://fet.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/

**Notes:**
We continue to support and expand the Forecast Evaluation Tool, which is used throughout the US by a variety of decision makers, including those concerned with water resources.
This slide shows a series of interactions from the Historical Context track of the Forecast Evaluation Tool. Users select a region (Northern Arizona here), and then in the left plot can see the seasonal climatology, expressed in tercile categories like the CPC climate outlooks (blue = upper tercile, green = middle, red = lower tercile). The black line shows recent observations (note: Feb was not complete when this was put together, so the last season with observations is NDJ). The right plot shows analogs selected from the historic record, using the tool on the far right. The user can specify which analogs to highlight (La Nina shown here - note how the selector shows which are the La Nina years), and then select a season (Jan-Feb-Mar) to see a Probability of Exceedance (POE) graph. This example shows 2 selections for the POE graph, above: La Nina and El Nino. Each POE graph show the POE for all years (in black) and for the selected years (in blue). The core of this tool was designed by wildland fire managers at CLIMAS-organized workshops.
The FET also allows users to quantitatively assess the skill of NWS seasonal climate outlooks for the different regions shown on the US map. And it provides tutorials on interpreting the forecasts, as well as an archive of historical forecasts. 
We are extending the FET to do analyses of paleostreamflow reconstructions (with Connie Woodhouse of the Tree Ring Lab), have a contract with the NWS to include additional features within the FET, and have a project with the NWS to move FET capabilities into NWS operations. 

## 3. Forecast Evaluation Tool: Verification 

**3. Forecast Evaluation Tool: Verification**** **

- User-controlled evaluations
- Move from simple to complex verification
- Skill, data used to compute scores, paired forecast and observation map

**Notes:**
-motivated by continuing developments re: teleconnections, eg ENSO.
-notable skill in PNW, CA, SE, SW: role of ENSO, role of snowpack (amplifies climate signal)
-strong desire from water management community: Columbia Basin Interagency Committee tried to work with NWS’ first 30-day outlooks in the 1950s!

## 3. FET to CPC: not just a software transfer!  

- Institute community software development framework: public, academic, private
-  Version Control System
-  Problem/Task Tracking System
-  “Rules of the Road”

**3. FET to CPC: not just a software transfer! **** **

## Our Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts

**Misinterpretation:** Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP
**Connecting Information:** Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record
**Forecast Quality:** Customized forecast verification
**Unique Needs for Products:** Dynamic, customizable products
**Easy Access:** Information management portfolio
**Connecting Information:** Newsletter/report generation

**Issue:** Approach

- YR1

- YR3

- YR2

## New Tools for Climate Services: Challenges

-   Prohibitions on user profiles, registration, dynamic process initiation
-   Requirements for complex and time-consuming webpage approval
-   Copyright restrictions preclude efficient knowledge transfer and use

**Federal agencies and academia should adapt, too**
-   Serve broad user needs for knowledge development & information management
-   Exploit evolving technologies
-   Facilitate rapid deployment of user-customizable webtools
-   Support ‘products’ over ‘prototypes’
-   Use Creative Commons to encourage applications by private sector & others

**Past Recommendations**
-   Researchers should adapt: conduct stakeholder-relevant research, develop applications, transition to operations
-   Decision makers should adapt: use advances in climate information and forecasts, incorporate uncertainty and probabilities, use risk management approaches

**New Tools for Climate Services: Challenges**