# Presentation: 887225

## Riding the IFPS/GFE into the Future of Forecasting

- Lynn Maximuk
- MIC WFO Pleasant Hill, MO

## IT Has Changed Our Forecast World

- The NWS primary product is information – not text messages –Wholesale vs Retail
- Partners and customers demand more of the most current information possible,  available _when they want it_
- If forecasters can’t feed the IT machines, model data is a cost efficient alternative

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## What is the NDFD?

- NDFD as of April 2002

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## NDFD as of 9/5/02

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## NDFD Grids

- Multiple owners – Time and Space
- WFOs
- National Centers HPC/SPC/CPC/AWC/NHC etc.
- NWS product – not local office product
- Your office produces a piece of the product
- Meteorological consistency a must
- If we can’t do it some one else will
- One stop shopping

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## How Can Customers Get It?

- National Data Base
- Updated hourly
- Available Oct 2002
- Accessed from NDFD servers via FTP

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## New Information SuiteLife Beyond the Zones

-  DIGITAL
-  DETAILED
-  DISPLAYABLE
-  ALWAYS CURRENT
-  READY TO PULL

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Not the ZFP...but words too

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Detailed Hourly Forecast Information

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Graphical Detailed Look

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## New World of Forecasting

- Use GFE/IFPS to paint meteorologically consistent picture of the weather for days 1-7
- Grids are the Thing! – They drive legacy product updates
- Short Term forecaster in grids 24 hours a day
- Multiple forecasters may be in data base – as dictated by weather
- Forecast collaboration rather than coordination

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Always Current Digital Data Base

- Event Driven Updates
- National, regional and local
- Customer/partner pull versus push
- Allocation of staffing – shift times - overlap
- Issuance times?

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Major Changes That Must Be Addressed

- Significant changes to forecast process and product suite
- Working with, rather than looking at, model data
- How to produce an “always current” digital data base
- Collaboration/coordination
- Verification/Quality Assurance

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Forecast Process Changes

- Working with forecast grids instead of words
- New editing processes and tools
- Interaction with model data
- Temporal division of forecast responsibility

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Event Driven Updates

- Scheduled Issuances of legacy prods?
- No Updates – “always current” NWS products you can count on
- What’s an event?
- New model guidance that changes thinking
- Dropping first period – adding new day 7
- Local customer needs
- Observed weather doesn’t match forecast

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Collaboration

- What tools are needed
- ISC Grids
- Chat capability
- Whiteboard/drawing capability
- FX-Connect – AWIPS interactive chat/white board
- Voice communication – meet-me calls
- What part of the NDFD does the WFO own? Ownership issues to address
- Meteorological consistency across boundaries versus personality
- Working as a team – inter-office science sharing including NCEP centers

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## ISC Grids

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## ISC Grid Collaboration

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Chat Room Sample

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Verification/Quality Assurance

- Grid versus point verification
- Multiple forecasters working on data base
- Real time feedback
- What do we look at to determine quality and timeliness?

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Forecast Monitoring

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Re-analyze The Way Your Office Does Business

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Some Things To Look At

- Temporal workload distribution – do your shift hours match workload
- Division of forecast responsibility
- Collaboration versus coordination
- How can our office get more meteorological information to our customers now!
- Product quality feedback to staff

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## More Considerations

- We don’t produce WFO xxx products, we produce part of the NWS product suite
- Don’t sit there complaining – get feedback into the stream through Regional channels
- Changes are coming faster than ever before – is your staff ready to handle that?

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Shift Management Challenges

- The lead needs to Lead
- Time, data, and people resources must be managed each shift
- Everyone’s time is part of the forecast team pool
- Shift duties and professional development time are flexible

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Focus Must be Changed From Products to Providing Information!

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Implementation Challenges

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Successful Implementation Depends Upon:

- Communication of Digital Information Vision
- Provide Continuously Updated Detailed Information

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Implementation Support

- Identify problems and get solutions
- Reinforce vision regularly/repeatedly
- Encourage new ideas for information dissemination
- Outreach to customers (WCM involvement) is critical to new information service
- CHANGE – new problems require new solutions

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002

## Implementation Successes

- Knobology training on-going
- Forecasters thinking “graphically”
- Grids drive “retail” products
- Forecaster Team concept evolved
- Workload adjustments driven by forecasters
- Flexibility

- Riding the IFPS/GFE Into the Future of Forecasting

- Sept. 24-27, 2002