# Presentation: 893067

## Access for Low SES Students

- Presented to Advisory Committee on Student Financial Assistance
- By
- John Lee, JBL Associates

## What is the Problem?

**Low-income students do not have enough money to attend college**
**Tuition has increased faster than income**
**Grant assistance has not kept up**
**The increase in the college age population and inflation over the next decade will require significant increases in support of low-income students**

## Who Qualifies for College

**First estimate is for high school students who took at least algebra 2 and received a diploma (no GED or certificates of completion)**
**Taking college level math is a good predictor of success in college**
**This defined qualifying high school graduates**

## Slide 4

## Slide 5

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## What Does This Mean?

**45% of the qualified students from the lowest SES quartile enrolled in college**
**84% of the qualified students from the highest quartile enrolled in college**
**Enrollment in 4-year colleges accounts for most of the difference**
**140,606 qualified low SES students did not go to college and 193,038 did not go to a 4-year college**

## Tougher Academic Criteria

**Represents characteristics of 4-year college students**
**Rank in high school****	****	****54%**
**Academic GPA****	****	****	****2.7**
**Combined SAT/ACT****	****	****820/19**
**NELS math and reading****	****56%**

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## What Does This Mean?

**161,195  low SES students qualify using these criteria and 81,150 attended college, this is half of those eligible **
**87% of the highest SES students enrolled in college**
**Compared with the less rigorous criteria, a greater percentage enrolled in a 4-year college**

## Projections to 2010

**2.82 million students finished high school in 2000**
**3.115 are expected to finish in 2010**
**Increase of 295,000 new graduates or 10% over the decade**
**Peak comes in 2008 and starts to decline**
**NCES projects 20% increase in college enrollment by 2010**

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## Projection of Pell Grants to 2010 (4-Year)

|  | 2000-01 | 2010-11 | Difference |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pell Dollars |  $4.781B | $8.516B | $3.735B |
| # of Recipients | 2,037,778 | 2,212,377 | 174,599 |
| Average Grant | $2,346 | $3,849 | $1,503 |

## Projection of Pell Grants to 2010 (2-Year)

|  | 2000-01 | 2010-11 | Difference |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Pell Dollars | $2.837B | $4.801B | $1.964B |
| # of Recipients | 1,415,014 | 1,536,254 | 121,240 |
| Average Grant | $2,005 | $3,125 | $1,120 |

## Projected Pell Shortfall by 2010(4 and 2-year only)

|  | 2010-11 |
| --- | --- |
| Needed Pell $ to Maintain Current Level | $13.318B |
| Pell $ Available in 2010 at 4% Increase | $11.276B |
| Pell Shortfall in 2010 | $2.042B |

## The Value of the Maximum Pell Grant as a Percentage of College Costs has Shrunk

**From a 1975 high of 78 percent of the cost of a four-year public institution to 39 percent in 1999**
**From 39 percent of the cost of a four-year private institution to 15 percent in 1999**

## Increasing Income Inequality

| 1970 | 1994 |
| --- | --- |
| Lowest fifth
5.4% | Lowest fifth
4.2% |
| Highest fifth
40.9% | Highest fifth
46.9% |

## Payoff to College is Increasing

- In 1972 a college graduate made 1.43 times as much as a high school graduate
- By 1992 the difference was 1.82

## Conclusions

**Enrollment in 4-year colleges accounts for most of the difference between SES groups**
**2/3rds of the highest SES group enrolled in a 4-year college compared with one-quarter of the lowest SES students**
**These inequalities will not change without a significant commitment of public funds**

## Conclusions

**If a state increases tuition, a share should be set aside for aid to low-income students**
**Federal grant aid for low-income students must keep up with inflation and increases in enrollment**
**Student aid for low-income students must increase from present levels**