# Presentation: 067392

## Session 8Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

- John C. Pine, Louisiana State University
- William Waugh, Georgia State University

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Terrorism

- Terrorism or the threat of terror involves acts of violence used in peace, conflict or war and are acts that shock the senses of reasonable people (Simonsen).
- Terrorism is violence or the threat of violence used and directed in pursuit of or in service of a political aim.

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Definitions of Terrorism (Rosie 1987)

- Violence or threatened violence intended to produce fear or change (simple definition)
- Criminal violence violating legal codes and punishable by the state (legal)
- National or other groups used to attack other interests (state-sponsored)
- Power of the government used to repress its people to the point of submission (state)

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Hoffman (1998) distinguishes terrorist acts from other types of criminal 	acts 

- Terrorism has political aims and motives
- Terrorism is violent or acts that threaten violence
- Terrorism acts have far-reaching psychological repercussions beyond the immediate victim or target;
- The terrorist act is conducted by an organization with an identifiable chain of command or structure;
- Perpetrated by a sub-national group or non-state entity.

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Terrorist incidents may include: 

- Verbal or written threats of violence,
- Physical attacks with or without weapons,
- Attacks using chemical, biological agents, nuclear or radiological materials;
- Destruction of power stations, water systems, and other critical infrastructure systems.

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Potential Domestic Targets to Terrorism

- Continuity of government services
- Transportation
- Utilities
- Banking & Finance
- Information & Communication
- Public Health

- Emergency Services
- Recreation
- Religious, academic or cultural institutions
- Commercial or industrial sites
- Special events such as celebrations

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Risk Assessment

- Risk assessment involves the clarification of the nature of a risk, including its probability of occurrence and likely intensity, and measuring its potential impact 	on people, property and the environment.

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Risk

**Risk is reflected in the equation stating that risk is the likelihood of an event occurring multiplied by the consequence of that event.**
- Risk = Likelihood of Occurrence x Consequence

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Terrorism Risk Assessment

- Terrorism is chronic and an ongoing threat;
- The goal of terrorism risk assessment initiatives is to improve preparedness against potential terrorist attacks;
- It may be used to establish local, regional and state priorities for terrorism planning;
- It helps to clarify vulnerability of local, regional or state targets;
- The impacts of a hazardous condition can come in the form of vulnerability or consequence assessment.

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Vulnerability

- A description or measure of what is exposed and susceptible to hazard impacts rather than a prediction of what will happen.
- Vulnerability focuses on measurable physical, political, economic or social variables.

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Terrorism Vulnerability Profile

- The approach uses the concept of the “most likely scenario” as a basis of analysis.
- The approach assumes that an attack would produce death, injuries, or infrastructure damage that would overwhelm the jurisdiction’s emergency response capabilities including any mutual aid agreements/assistance pacts.

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Terrorism Events (Hoffman 1998)

- Rarely uncontrolled
- Premeditated and carefully planned
- Targets and methods based on the sponsoring group’s:
- Aims
- Resources
- Personalities of key members
- Internal dynamics of the group

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Level of Visibility

- Invisible – Classified Location 0
- Very Low Visibility – Not aware of its existence 1
- Low Visibility – Probably not well known existence 2
- Medium Visibility – Existence is probably known 3
- High Visibility – Existence well known 4
- Very High Visibility – 	Existence is obvious 5

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Criticality of Target Site to Jurisdiction 

- No Usefulness 		0
- Minor Usefulness 		1
- Moderate Usefulness 	2
- Significant Usefulness 	3
- Highly Useful 			4
- Critical 				5

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Value of Target to Terrorist

- None 		0
- Very Low 	1
- Low 		2
- Medium 		3
- High 		4
- Very High 	5

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Access to Target 

- (0) Fenced, Guarded, Controlled Access by Pass Only, No Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet
- (1) Guarded, Controlled Access of Visitors and Non-Staff Personnel, No Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet
- (2) Protected, Controlled Access of Visitors and Non-Staff Personnel, No Unauthorized Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet
- (3) Controlled Access of Visitors, Unprotected Entry, No Unauthorized Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet
- (4) Open Access to all personnel, Unprotected Entry, No Unauthorized Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet
- (5) Open Access to all personnel, Unprotected Entry, Vehicle Parking within 50 feet

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

##  Site Population Capacity 

- 0 				(0)
- 1 – 250 			(1)
- 251 – 500 		(2)
- 501 - 1000 		(3)
- 1001 – 5000 		(4)
- > 5000 			(5)

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism

## Potential for Collateral Mass Casualties 

- 0 to 100 		(0)
- 101 to 500 	(1)
- 501 to 1000 	(2)
- 1001 to 2000 	(3)
- 2001 to 5000 	(4)
- > 5000 		(5)

- Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism