# Presentation: 698953

## Outlook for World Oil Markets

**Administrator**
**Energy Information Administration**

**French-American Defense Symposium**
**Warrenton, VA**
**April 11, 2008**

***Outlook for World Oil Markets***

## Fossil fuels, particularly liquid fuels and other petroleum, will dominate world energy consumption

**Liquids**

**Natural Gas**

**Coal**

**Renewables**

**Nuclear**

**34%**

**8%**

**28%**

**6%**

**Share of **
**World**
**Total**

**24%**

**38%**

**26%**

**23%**

**7%**

**6%**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

- History

- Projections

**quadrillion Btu**

##  Energy consumption in the non-OECD nations will soon surpass the OECD, driven by growth in Asia

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**240**

**207**

**265**

**294**

**298**

**404**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

**quadrillion Btu**

## World oil prices are higher in all AEO2008 cases

**World oil prices are higher in all *****AEO2008***** cases**

**nominal dollars per barrel**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

- History

- Projections

**High Price**

**Reference**

**Low Price**

## U.S. liquids consumption is much lower in AEO2008

**2010**

**2020**

**20.7**

**21.6**

**21.0**

**24.0**

**27.0**

**Transportation**

**Residential and**
**Commercial**

**Industrial**

**Electric Power**

**2030**

**22.0**

**22.8**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2007 and 2008*

**million barrels per day**

##  Non-OECD liquids consumption will edge out OECD by 2030

*International Energy Outlook 2007 and Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

**2004**

**2015**

**2030**

**49**

**33**

**52**

**46**

**57**

**61**

**OECD**

**Non-OECD**

**million barrels per day**

**50**

**53**

**reflects U.S. liquids**
**in *****AEO2008***

## Worldwide, the transportation sector dominates liquids consumption

**Worldwide, the transportation sector dominates liquids consumption**

**168**

**184**

**198**

**211**

**224**

**239**

*International Energy Outlook 2007*

**quadrillion Btu**

## The Persian Gulf remains the world’s most important oil supplier

**North America**

**Other OPEC**

**OPEC**
**Persian**
**Gulf**

**Far East**

**Central/South**
**America**

**Europe and**
**Eurasia**

**Africa/**
**Middle East**

**The Persian Gulf remains the world’s most important oil supplier**

**percent**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

## U.S. dependence on liquid fuels imports declines by 2030, but is still more than half of consumption

**U.S. dependence on liquid fuels imports declines by 2030, but is still more than half of consumption**

**Consumption**

**Domestic Supply**

**Net Imports**** **

**60%**

**54%**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

- History

- Projections

**million barrels per day**

## U.S. imports of oil come from many sources, but the Persian Gulf is important

**North America**

**Other OPEC**

**Europe**

**OPEC Persian Gulf**

**Other**

**Far East**

**Caribbean**

**U.S. imports of oil come from many sources, but the Persian Gulf is important**

**million barrels per day**

*Annual Energy Outlook 2008*

## The Straits of  Hormuz and Malacca are the world’s key oil transit routes

## There are many oil supply areas of concern worldwide

**There are many oil supply areas of concern worldwide**

**Indonesia**

**Iran**

**Nigeria**

**Venezuela**

**Sudan**

**Caspian & Caucasus**

**Saudi Arabia**

**Iraq**

## Supply disruptions have driven oil prices upwards

**dollars per barrel,**
**refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil**
**(Saudi Light official price for 1970-1973)**

## U.S. economic growth has fallen after major oil supply disruptions

**real GDP growth,**
**percent change from previous quarter**

**Arab Oil Embargo**
**2.6 million barrels per day**

**Iranian Revolution**
**3.5 million barrels per day**

**Outbreak of Iran-Iraq War**
**3.3 million barrels per **
**day**

**First Gulf War**
**4.3 million barrels per day**

**Strike in Venezuela**
**War in Iraq**
**2.1 million barrels per day**

## www.eia.doe.gov

**guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov**

**   ****Periodic Reports**
***   ******Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports*****, weekly*****  ***
***   ******Short-Term Energy Outlook*****, monthly**
***   ******Annual Energy Outlook 2008*****, March 2008, full report, April 2008**
***   ******International Energy Outlook 2007*****, May 2007, next update June 2008**
**   ****Examples**** of ****Special Analyses**
**    “****Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2006***
**    *****Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge*****, **
**           ****March 2004**
**    *****The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, *****December 2003**
**    “****Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” *****Annual Energy Outlook 2005***
***    ***
**    **

**www.eia.doe.gov**