# Presentation: 707048

## 13th Century model of rabbit population growth:

**	***based on Fibonacci series***    (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, ....)  **

**Malthus (1798)**
***... ******Nature has scattered the seeds of life abroad with the most profuse and liberal hand.  She has been comparatively sparing in the room and nourishment necessary to rear them.  The germs of existence contained in this spot of earth, with ample food, and ample room to expand in would  fill millions of worlds in the course of a few thousand years....***
***Given unlimited resources, size of population increases as geometric progression****** *****(1, 2, 4, 8, 16, ....)*****	******	******	******	*****	**

**Verhulst-Pearl **
**logistic equation  (1839)**
***model of population growth in a limited environment***

## Annual Calcium Budget for an Aggrading Forested Ecosystem at Hubbard Brook

**	****	****	****	****	****	**** ****	*****(Likens et al. 1977)***

- NORTHERN HARDWOOD FOREST ECOSYSTEM

- SOIL AVAILABLE Ca 510

- dissolved organic fraction 13.7

- HYDROLOGIC EXPORT 13.9

- OUTPUT

- INPUT

- BIOSPHERE

- BULK PRECIPITATION 2.2

- Inorganic fraction (particulate) 0.2

- MINERAL SOIL BOUND Ca _9600 _         ROCK        64,600

- WEATHERING 21.1

- NET MINERALIZATION 42.4

- FOREST FLOOR BOUND Ca     370 (1.4)

- Organic fraction <0.1

- ROOT EXUDATES   3.5

- Inorganic fraction 3.5

- ROOT LITTER 3.2

- BELOW GROUND LIVING BIOMASS BOUND Ca            101 (2.7)

- UPTAKE 62.2

- Inorganic fraction   2.2

- LITTER FALL   40.7

- THROUGHFALL AND STEMFLOW    6.7

- ABOVE GROUND LIVING BIOMASS BOUND Ca                   383 (5.4)

- TRANSLOCATION

- JJJJJJJJJ

- JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ

- -5.1

## A conceptual model is a mental picture of how something works.  

**A conceptual model is a mental picture of how something works.  **
**We have a conceptual model of a car that allows us to drive by relating certain actions (e.g. pressing the brake pedal) to certain results **
**(e.g. the car stops).**

**We don’t have to understand automotive engineering for our driving **
** ****model to work.   But  if we need to repair the engine, a different model **
** ****would be required.  **

## Prototype Confessions . . . . . 

**Prototype Confessions . . . . .**
**We did not initiate the Prairie Cluster LTEM**
**program with formal planning process -- convening **
**panels of experts.  We are reviewing monitoring **
**components within context of ecosystem**
**models rather late in the design phase.     **

## Cynic’s View of the Interface Between Ecological Research and Management 							(Hobbs, 1998)

**Cynic’s View of the Interface Between Ecological Research and Management ****	****	****	****	****	****	****	*****(Hobbs, 1998)***

## Common Misconceptions  (Starfield et al. 1997)

***A model cannot be  built with incomplete understanding.*****  ****Managers make **
**     ****decisions with incomplete information all the time!  This should be an added**
**     ****incentive for model-building as a statement of current best understanding. **
***  ******A model must be as detailed and realistic as possible.***** **
**    ****If models are constructed as ‘purposeful representations of reality’, then design**
**    ****the leanest model possible.  Identify the  variables that make the system behave and **
**    ****join them in the most simple of formal structures.   **

## Modeling Confusion? 

- Conceptual Ecosystem Models
- Small, Focused Models -- Conceptual or predictive models of populations
- 			or communities
- Holistic Program Models -- Conceptual models of how monitoring
- 	 		  information will feed back into
- 			  decision-making process

**Modeling Confusion?**

## Conceptual Ecosystem Models

**Conceptual Ecosystem Models**

-   Conceptual Models of Indicator Selection Process

## Conceptual Ecological Models of the Major Wetland 

**Caloosaatchee Estuary**** **
**St. Lucie Estuary & Indian River Lagoon **
**Everglade Ridge and Slough **
**Big Cypress Basin**
**Southern Everglades Marl Prairies**
**Southern Shark Slough**
**Mangrove Estuary Transition**** **
**Florida Bay Mangrove**

**Conceptual Ecological Models of the Major Wetland **
**Physiographic Regions in South Florida**
**	****	*****Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Project Team***
***	******	******and the Science Coordination Team of the South Florida ***
***	******	******Ecosystem Restoration Working Group***** **

## Conceptual Model of Mangrove Estuary Transition 

**Conceptual Model of Mangrove Estuary Transition**** **

## Conceptual Ecosystem Models

-   **Small, Focused Models**** ****-- Conceptual or predictive models ****	****	****	****    of  populations or communities**

-   Conceptual Models of Indicator Selection Process

## Conceptual model of influences on Missouri bladderpod habitat quality

**Conceptual model of influences on Missouri bladderpod habitat quality**
**	****	****	****	****	***Prairie Cluster LTEM Program*

## Conceptual model of influences on population dynamics of Missouri bladderpod

- climate,
*climate change, elevated CO**2*

*habitat fragmentation*

- germination

- growth & survival

- reproduction

- mature plants

- germinated seedlings

- seed
- bank

- seed bank persistence

- wildfire,
*prescribed fire*

*woody species removal*

*cultural use*
*(trampling)*

- spring weather
- (precipitation, duration of flowering period)

- autumn weather
- (precipitation & temperature)

- winter & spring weather (freeze-thaw,heavy rainfall)

- resource/nutrient availability

- exotic species establishment

- pollinator activity

- fungal growth

- soil disturbance

- wildlife/bird activity

- vegetation structure & composition

- geology

- variable soil depth

**Conceptual model of influences on population dynamics of Missouri bladderpod**

## Conceptual Ecosystem Models  

- Conceptual Ecosystem Models
- Small, Focused Models -- Conceptual or predictive models of 		   populations or communities

**  ****Holistic Program Models -- Conceptual models of how monitoring **
**	**** ****	****	****        ****information will feed back into **
**	****	****	****        ****decision-making process**

-   Conceptual Models of Indicator Selection Process

## Holistic program model for the Prairie Cluster LTEM Program

**Are prairie remnants sustainable within small parks?**

**Indicators of Ecosystem Health**

**Holistic program model for the Prairie Cluster LTEM Program**

## Monitoring Effort

**Plant Community**

**Exotic Species**

**Adjacent Land  Use**

***Monitoring Effort***

***Monitoring Products***

**Distribution maps & population size estimates of rare species;  Population models of federally endangered species**

**Trends in plant community diversity, structure & composition; Vegetation maps**

**Distribution maps of invasive exotics**

**External land use maps**

**What areas harbor the highest diversity?**
**What are the high risk habitats?**

**How is the prairie changing?**

**Management **
**History**

***Management Feedback***
*** ***

***Synthesis***

**How are management practices influencing the prairie?**

**Are exotic control methods effective?**

**Is the prairie healthy?**

**How is prescribed  fire changing the prairie? **

**How are changes in land use impacting the prairie?**

**Is the prairie threatened by exotic invasion?**

## Conceptual models are useful throughout 

**the monitoring process: **
**	****formalize our current understanding of  the context and ****	****	****scope of the natural processes  and anthropogenic stressors ****	****affecting ecological integrity**
**	**
**	****help expand our consideration across traditional discipline ****	****boundaries**
**	**** **

**Most importantly, clear, simple models facilitate communication between:**
**	****	****scientists from different disciplines**
**	**
**	****	****researchers and managers**
**	****	****managers and the public **

##   Conceptual Models of Indicator Selection Process 

-   **Conceptual Ecosystem Models  **
-   Small, Focused Models -- Conceptual or predictive models of populations
- 			or communities
-   Holistic Program Models -- Conceptual models of how monitoring
- 	 		  information will feed back into
- 			  decision-making process

## Why Do We Need Conceptual Ecosystem Models?  

- 						*Noon et al.  1999*

**Why Do We Need Conceptual Ecosystem Models?****  **

## Aspects to Consider as Conceptual Models are Developed

**2.    Consider the temporal and spatial dynamics of the resource at multiple scales because information from different scales can result in different conclusions  about resource condition. **

**3.     Identify how major stressors of resource are expected to impact its structure and function **

**Aspects to Consider as Conceptual Models are Developed**
*from Barber (1994)*

## Slide 21

## Conceptual model of core abiotic and biotic relationships within terrestrial prairie ecosystems.  Modified from Hartnett and Fay (1998), the model has been adopted by the Prairie Cluster LTEM Program.  

**Conceptual model of core abiotic and biotic relationships within terrestrial prairie ecosystems.  Modified from *****Hartnett and Fay (1998)*****,**** the model has been adopted by the Prairie Cluster LTEM Program.  **

## Slide 23

## Conceptual model of core abiotic and biotic relationships within terrestrial prairie ecosystems, including anthropogenic stressors (in red) affecting Prairie Cluster parks.    					Modified from Hartnett and Fay 1998

- Grazers,
- Cattle

- Drought

*Direct Effects*

*Grazer selectivity*
*and grazing *
*patterns*

*Resource*
*Availability*

- Plant growth & demography

- Mycorrhizae

- Standing dead
- &  litter

- Invertebrates

- Plant community
- structure

- Insects

- Birds

- Mammals

- Watershed and
- landscape
- patterns

- Local extirpation
- emigration and
- immigration

- Exotic Plant
- Invasion

- Prescribed
- Fire

- Fragmentation

- Cultural use

**Conceptual model of core abiotic and biotic relationships within terrestrial prairie ecosystems, including anthropogenic stressors (*****in red*****) affecting Prairie Cluster parks.    ****	****	****	****	****	*****Modified from Hartnett and Fay 1998***

## Monitoring implications from terrestrial prairie model 

**Monitoring implications from terrestrial prairie model **

## Aspects to Consider as Conceptual Models are Developed

**Aspects to Consider as Conceptual Models are Developed**
*from Barber (1994)*

## The scale of resolution chosen by ecologists is perhaps the most important decision in the research program, because it largely predetermines the questions, the procedures, the observations, and the results.  .....  Many ecologists.... focus on their small scale questions amenable to experimental tests and remain oblivious to the larger scale processes which may account for the patterns they study.  

- 			*P.D.Dayton and M.J. Tegner (1984)*

**Most environmental problems are driven by mismatches of scale between **
**human responsibility and natural interactions.  **
- 					*Lee (1993) *

## Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Different Earth System Processes 							(NASA, 1988)

**Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Different Earth System Processes**** ****	****	****	****	****	****	****	*****(NASA, 1988)***

## An Assessment of the Spatial and Temporal Scales of  Natural Disturbances in an Arctic Tundra Ecosystem   (Walker, 1991)

- SPATIAL SCALE (log of area in m2)

- EVENT FREQUENCY (log of years)

- -2

- -4

- -2

- 0

- 2

- 4

- 6

- 8

- 10

- 12

- Thaw Cycle

- Microsite

- Mesocite

- Macrosite

- Microregion

- Mesoregion

- 0

- 2

- 4

- 6

- Continental Drift and Uplift of Brooks Range

- Megascale

- Climate Fluctuations Associated with Glaciations

- Climate Fluctuations Associated with Glaciations

- Climate Fluctuations During the Holocene

- Tundra Fires

- Major Storms and Storm Surges

- Oil Seeps

- Animal Disturbances

- Daily Freeze- Thaw Cycle

- Growth and Erosion of Ice Wedges and Erosion of Ice Wedges

- Eolian Deposition

- Snowbank Formation and Melting

- Annual Fluvial Erosion and Deposition

**An Assessment of the Spatial and Temporal Scales of  Natural Disturbances in an Arctic Tundra Ecosystem****   ***(Walker, 1991)*

## Slide 30

## Incorporating Multiple Points of View 

**Allen and Hoekstra (1992) stress that ecology is in many ways a ‘soft-system’ science, one in which point of view (ecological level of inquiry, temporal/spatial scale) is the very substance of the discourse.   They suggest there are enough decision points in an ecological investigation (or in the design of a monitoring program) to require some formalization of decision -making.**

## Checkland’s “Soft-systems Methodology”    (Allen and Hoekstra 1992)

- 1) Recognize that there is a problem, a real mess
-   troubled feeling an ecosystem, community or population ecologist may have that     	some other sort of specialist could better solve the problem at hand
-      trying to manage water, vegetation and wildlife in a unit of particular size but 	realizing the temporal or spatial scales don’t mesh with natural process scales
- 2) Actively generate as many points of view for the system as possible
- 	-- ‘painting the rich picture’
-   community ecologist consider physiological aspects of the problem, population 	biologist to consider nutrient 	cycling, etc.
- 3) Find the root definitions -- develop abstractions that restrict the rich picture in hopes 	of finding solution.
-   (key system attributes will change as scale of the system and point of view 		(ecological discipline) is altered
- 4) Build the model

## Why Do We Need Conceptual Models?

**Why Do We Need Conceptual Models?**

**1)****	****Ecosystems (communities, populations)  are messy;  our ability to provide early warning of resource decline is uncertain.  We need a road map.**

**2)****	****Long-term monitoring is an iterative process (i.e. we may not get it right the first time);  modeling will help ensure that mistakes are instructive and not repeated.**

**3)****	****A balanced monitoring program should consider multiple spatial/temporal scales and integrate monitoring across ecological disciplines.  Models serve as heuristic devices to foster better communication and clarify scaling issues.**

## Slide 34