# Presentation: 512370

## Project Management:  Parametric Models Beyond Estimates Presented to The NASA Cost SymposiumJohnson Space CenterMarch 10, 2004

**Dr. Denton Tarbet**
- Senior Consultant
- Galorath Incorporated

## Project Management

- Project management:  A discipline that employs skills and knowledge to achieve project goals through various project activities. It involves controlling _*costs, time, risks, project scope, and quality*_ through project management processes. *

- * STC Crosstalk Jan 2003

***Supporting Project  Management –***
***	******Planning and Estimation Model***

## Effective Project Management

**Projects rarely succeed by themselves. They must be planned well and***** ****executed well*.

**Effective Management**

## Cost Estimation Team Supports the Entire Program Management Life Cycle

**Cost Estimation Team Supports the Entire Program Management Life Cycle**

**Planning**

**Organizing**

**Leading**

**Controlling**

** ****The cornerstone of successfully establishing and completing any project or program is a rational cost and schedule estimate* **
** ****Estimates based on parametric models provide both rational cost and schedule estimates and effective tools for ongoing project management**
** ****Estimates are the basis for trade-off studies and management decisions regarding realistic project lifecycle planning**** **
**	****	****	****	*****STC Jan 2003**

## Cost Estimation Team Supports Organizing 

**Cost Estimation Team Supports Organizing **

**Planning**

**Organizing**

**Leading**

**Controlling**

** **Models provide “objective” evaluation of alternatives for example:
-  Architecture and design alternatives
-  Staffing – level and experience
-  Processes for productivity

## Cost Estimation Team SupportsLeading

**Cost Estimation Team Supports****Leading**

**Planning**

**Organizing**

**Leading**

**Controlling**

- Models provide “objective” evaluation of decision alternatives, for example
-  Effort/schedule as result of personnel assigned
-  Evaluate accomplishments against goal
- Compare actuals to model projections
- Model projections provide assessment of alternatives during reassignment

## Cost Estimation Team SupportsControlling

**Cost Estimation Team Supports****Controlling**

**Planning**

**Organizing**

**Leading**

**Controlling**

** **Earned Value Management, detailed project plans, resource management
-  Objective inputs from models provide evaluation of project metrics
-  Models support objectively predicting problems
-  Models provide objective assessment of alternatives
- Models provide objective assessment of risk mitigation strategies

## Project Management

**          ****Credible “PROJECT ****INFORMATION****”**
**	****	****  ****is critically important**
**	****	****       ****to successful project management!**

## Metrics For SW Project Management

- Given the competitive importance of organizational performance and fact-based decision making, measurement programs have become increasingly important within the software and systems engineering communities
- Measurement can no longer be implemented as a *check-the-box* process that is rolled out to satisfy a scheduled review or process improvement assessment
- Measurement must provide real information to support critical project and organizational business and technical decisions, and the measurement results must be effectively communicated and used across the entire corporate entity
_***INFORMATION – NOT DATA!***_

## Earned Value: Measuring Project Progress in Monetary Terms

**Measure and communicate real physical progress of a project taking into account the work complete, the time taken, and the costs incurred to complete that work**
**A snap-shot of the project that supports comparison of the planned with the actual and make a subjective assessment of the project progress**
**Earned Value metrics demonstrate a level of completed tasks against plan**
- Status of the schedule, ie are the work elements progressing with respect to the project plan
- Status of project in monetary terms for consistent
**By extrapolating the curves and further calculation we can also estimate the costs to project completion and the probable completion date**

## Earned Value Metrics

- Cost Variance

- o

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- Schedule Variance

## Earned Value Parameters

**SV = BCWP – BCWS (the difference between the Earned Value and the planned budget)**
**CV = BCWP – ACWP (the difference between the Earned Value and the actual costs of the work performed)**
**Schedule Performance Index and Cost Performance Index give indications of the health of the project. Is the project on time, in budget or what?**
**Schedule Performance Index is a ratio of Earned Value and the planned value of completed works. A SPI < 1 is not good****SPI = BCWP / BCWS**
**Cost Performance Index is a ratio of Earned Value and the actual costs of completed works. A CPI < 1 is not good****CPI = BCWP / ACWP **

## Earned Value: Performance Indices

## Cost Estimation across the project

- DESIGN

- DEVELOPMENT

- INTEGRATE
- &
- TEST

- Objective Assessment
- Control metrics,
- ie EVM

- Project Metrics:  EV Reports; Process Metrics; Schedule Performance

- Models:
-  effort/schedule
- Project Planning &
- Design Trade-offs

- BAC &
- Update for
- EAC

## Parametric Modeling: Beyond Estimation

**Parametric Modeling: Beyond Estimation**

- Implement

## Stop Light Charts

- INFORMATION is provided by tools such as “Stop Light” charts (red, yellow, and green indicators) showing performance across any project phase
- Stop light charts can be used to provide information that compares project metrics to model projections.

- DATA is DATA, NOT *INFORMATION*

## Project Metrics - Model Projections

| SYSTEM EVALUATION OF RESULTS -- Actuals compared to Model projections. |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|   | Accomp. | Schedule | Staffing | Error Rate | ESLOC |
| Computing Sys |   |   |   |   |   |
| COE |   |   |   |   |   |
| Training Ser. |   |   |   |   |   |
| Decision Support |   |   |   |   |   |
| Mission Eval |   |   |   |   |   |
| Network Mgt |   |   |   |   |   |
| Sensor Mgt |   |   |   |   |   |

## Project Metrics – Model Projections(2)

| PARAMETER VALUES FROM THE MODEL AND METRICS DATA |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Accomp. |  | Schedule |  | Staffing |  | Error Rate |  | ESLOC |  |
| Model Data | metrics data | Model Data | metrics data | Model Data | metrics data | Model Data | metrics data | Model Data | metrics data |
| 27.5% | 30.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 16.0 | 15.0 |             68  |             65  | 4400.0 | 4100.0 |
| 61.7% | 52.6% | 61.7% | 60.0% | 40.0 | 38.0 |           120  |             80  | 26730.0 | 25200.0 |
| 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 40.0% | 40.0 | 39.0 |             75  |             73  | 26830.0 | 26100.0 |
| 40.0% | 34.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 42.0 | 40.0 |             90  |             88  | 26930.0 | 25900.0 |
| 50.0% | 59.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | 47.0 | 43.0 |             65  |             63  | 27030.0 | 26570.0 |
| 55.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | 52.0% | 43.0 | 41.0 |           110  |           108  | 27130.0 | 27000.0 |
| 50.0% | 58.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | 51.0 | 42.0 |             50  |             47  | 27230.0 | 23500.0 |

## Project Metrics – Model Projections(3)

| Comparison range settings |  |  |  |  |  |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Accomp. | Schedule | Staffing | Error Rate | ESLOC |
| Computing Sys | 20% | 10% | 5 | 10% | 20% |
|   | 10% | 5% | 3 | 5% | 10% |
| COE | 20% | 10% | 5 | 10% | 15% |
|   | 10% | 5% | 3 | 5% | 10% |
| Training Ser. | 20% | 10% | 5 | 10% | 10% |
|   | 10% | 5% | 3 | 5% | 5% |
| Decision Support | 20% | 10% | 5 | 10% | 10% |
|   | 10% | 5% | 3 | 5% | 5% |
| Mission Eval | 20% | 10% | 5 | 10% | 10% |
|   | 10% | 5% | 3 | 5% | 5% |
| Network Mgt | 20% | 10% | 5 | 10% | 10% |
|   | 10% | 5% | 3 | 5% | 5% |
| Sensor Mgt | 20% | 10% | 10 | 10% | 10% |
|   | 10% | 5% | 5 | 5% | 5% |

## Project Management – Model Projections

**High fidelity models provide effective measures to evaluate project metrics**
**Maintaining high fidelity models provides a realistic estimate of cost and cost-to-complete for the program on a continuous basis**
**Maintaining an ongoing analysis of the contractor metrics reports as compared to the parametric model’s projection of the metric.**
- Metrics analysis can be provided as “stop-light” type charts for easy management review, quickly indicating areas of performance that require review.

## Quick Look Example

## Effort/Schedule Analyst – I would like??

- 		**It would be nice if my modeling tool gave me the data I ****	****need for project metric comparisons**
**	****	****	****”*****If you can have anything you want from the tool – ******	******	******	******What would it be????”***
**A full set of Earned Value type metrics for starters!!**
- BCWS
- ACWP
- Earned Value (BCWP)
- CPI and SPI
- Cost and schedule variance (It would be nice to have both current and cumulative

## Enhancements to SEER-SEMPPT Metrics

**Fundamental Measures:**
- BCWS – Baseline Plan
- ACWP – Actual Cost
- BCWP – Earned Value
**Variances (Both Current and Cumulative):**
- CV – Cost Variance
- SV – Schedule Variance
- WV – Work Variance
**Performance Indices (Both Current and Cumulative):**
- CPI – Cost Performance Index
- SPI – Schedule Performance Index
- TCPI – To Complete Performance Index

**EAC – Estimate at Complete:**
- Schedule Months
- Effort Months
- Effort Hours
- Development Base Year Cost
- Effective Lines
- Effective Functions
- Effective Size
- Start Date
- Completion Date

## Project Metrics: Performance Data

## Earned Value: Performance Indices

## Program Management Support

_**Management “Experts”**_**: Systems development, complex project management experience and parametric modeling expertise to identify, develop, and design applications of models, to improve and optimize the effectively of how we manage development programs for hardware, software, and systems**
**Cost/schedule experts can provide support at multiple levels to Project Management**
**Cost/schedule estimation tools provide modeling and estimation support directly to the evaluation of project metrics**
**Risk analysis and support**
- Cost/schedule models such as SEER-H and SEER-SEM provide “objective” data to support systems analysis decisions and management decisions
**Support to design and develop reporting tools for:**
- Providing management insight into metrics performance of the contractors, as compared to realistic modeling estimates of performance
- Maintaining realistic PERT or Gant type schedules, reflecting model projections updated with actuals
- Maintaining effective cost-to-complete and schedule-to-complete estimates

## SEER-SEM Parametric Performance Tracking

**  **
**SEER-SEM tools are providing ****INFORMATION ****to improve**** Project Management awareness and decision**
**Parametric Performance Tracking metrics add-in to SEER SEM Enterprise is in Alpha testing**
**Project  SEER-SEM PPT add-in will ship in Q4 of this year**

## Recommendation

**	**
**	****Project Management for large projects (especially multi-year projects with significant software and hardware subsystems) should utilize tools, such as the SEER suite. These tools provide a powerful aid to Project Management, providing “objective information” for systems trade-offs and  project management decisions throughout the development, integration, and test of a program’s life cycle.**

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## Thank you

**Dr. Denton Tarbet**
**Senior Consultant **
**Galorath Incorporated**
**310-414-3222**
**dtarbet@galorath.com**
**www.galorath.com**