# Presentation: 192705

## NOAA Leadership SeminarPPBES Case Study:NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Program

- Fred Toepfer
- Environmental Modeling Program Manager
- &
- Deputy Director, NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

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## Outline

- Program Overview
- EMP and the PPBES
- Where do we go from here?

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## Why NOAA Uses Models

- Forecasters Add Value

- Models provide basis for improvement

**Why NOAA Uses Models**

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## Key Roles Data Assimilation and Processing

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## Program OverviewMission Requirements

**Provide models, and model-based forecast guidance products which:**
- Prevent injury, loss of life, and damage to the economy resulting from environmental conditions,
- Integrate science and environmental understanding and prediction capabilities across NOAA mission goals, programs, and activities,
- Provide a disciplined, defensible basis for NOAA's Integrated Observing System Investment,
- Advance decision support services, aid forecasters, and educate stakeholders,
- Ensure the sustainable use of resources to balance competing uses of ecosystems,
- Improve the quantification, understanding, and predictability of climate change,
- Support sound decisions on aviation, marine, and surface navigation.

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**Notes:**
Ensure that the outcome is linked to or supports a goal outcome and/or performance objective in the NOAA Strategic Plan (See the draft NOAA Strategic Plan at www.spo.noaa.gov)

## NOAA’s Four Mission Goals:
Climate Mission Goal Programs 
Commerce and Transportation Mission Goal Programs
Ecosystem Goal Programs
Weather & Water Mission Goal Programs
External: 
DTRA, AF & Navy, 
DOE,
FAA,
Other National Weather Services 
Academia
Commercial Weather Services and other commercial interests

**Climate Mission Goal Programs **
**Commerce and Transportation Mission Goal Programs**
**Ecosystem Goal Programs**
**Weather & Water Mission Goal Programs**
**External****: **
**DTRA, AF & Navy, **
**DOE,**
**FAA,**
**Other National Weather Services **
**Academia**
**Commercial**** Weather Services and other commercial interests**

**Program Overview****Customers**

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**Notes:**
EMP Steering Group (Key NOAA managers)
Program activities and priorities
Funding allocations to program activities, 
Program plans and annual objectives for Line Office annual operating plans
Goal Team Leads
Overall program funding 
Overall program objectives
NOAA High Performance Computing Board
Oversight of HPC Management
Oversight of HPCC Asset Acquisition

## Environmental Modeling Program - Capabilities

**Development**
**Test**
**Transition**

**Observing**
**System **
**Studies**

**Research**
**Results**

**Observing**
**System**
**Investment**
**Guidance**

**Modeling**
**Technique**
**R&D**

**Scientific**
**Development**

**Engineering**
**Development**

**Climate &Weather**
**Research**

**NOS & NWS**
**Operations**

- T2A
- Decision

- Implementation
- Decision

- Apply Models

**Numerical **
**Forecast**
**Guidance**

**High Performance Computing**

**External**
**Modeling**
**R&D**

**Ecosystem**
**Forecasting**
**(Future)**

**Ecosystem**
**Management**
**Guidance**

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## The Environmental Forecast Process

- Observations

- Analysis

- Model Forecast

- Post-processed Model Data

- Forecaster

- User (public, industry...)

- Numerical
- Forecast
- System

- Data
- Assimilation

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## Program Overview

**Outcome: An Integrated Environmental Modeling and Data Assimilation System that:**
**Meets ALL of NOAA’s Needs**
**From research to operations**
**From estuary to ocean to weather prediction to climate change**
**Is extensible to ecosystems as science matures**
**Achieves quality consistent with the state-of-the-science and customer requirements – in cost-effective manner**
**Supports the timely and reliable delivery of NOAA’s products and Services**
**Provides a disciplined, defensible basis for NOAA’s Observing System Investment**

- Ensure U.S. Environmental Models are the **World’s Best**

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## Program Management

- EMP is a Matrix Program
- Oversight Responsibility – NWS
- Steering Group (Members designated by LO)
- NWS – Louis Uccellini – Director NCEP
- OAR – Ants Leetmaa – Director, GFDL
- NESDIS – Al Powell - Director, ORA)
- NOS – Marie Colton, - NOS Technical Director
- CIO, Carl Staton, - NOAA CIO
- Program Manager – Fred Toepfer

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## Key Team Members

- NWS
- Fred Toepfer - EMC
- Paul Dallavalle – MDL
- Will Shaffer – MDL
- Sreela Nandi – OS&T (new coordinator – part-time)
- NOS
- Mary Erickson - CSDL
- Frank Aikman – CSDL
- Mark Vincent – CO-OPS

- OAR
- Brian Gross – GFDL
- Stan Benjamin – ESRL GSD
- Alan Leonardi – OSS (prior part-time coordinator until May)
- NESDIS
**Jim Yoe - JCSDA**
**Stan Wilson** – NESDIS Senior Scientist
- NOAA OCIO
- Bill Turnbull – Deputy CIO
- Mike Kane

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## Program Funding Summary

**FY 2009**

- ** Table should be considered preliminary since gap/requirement validation is underway now.

| ($M) | FY06 | FY07 | FY08 | FY09 | FY10 | FY11 | FY12 | FY13 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Current Resources | 72900 | 83967 | 85667 | 85667 | 85667 | 85667 | 85667 | 85667 |
| 100% Requirement |  |  |  | 297974 | 308549 | 317226 | 325145 | 332535 |
| Gap** (+/-) |  |  |  | 212,307 | 222,882 | 231,559 | 239,478 | 246,868 |

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## Key NOAA Modeling Activities

- Earth System Modeling Development
- Long-term Climate Modeling
- Short-term Climate Modeling – Research
- Short-term Climate Modeling – Operations
- Ocean Modeling
- Modeling Technique Research and Development
- Transition & Implementation Modular Ocean Model (MOM)
- Transition & Implementation Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HyCOM)
- Real Time Ocean Forecast System - Atlantic Operations
- Ocean Data Assimilation -
- Wave Modeling
- Land Modeling
- Coastal and Estuary Tide and Current Modeling
- Storm Surge Modeling

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## Key NOAA Modeling Activities

- Atmospheric Modeling
- Global Model Research & Development
- Global Forecast System Operations
- Global Modeling (Ensembles)
- North American Ensemble Forecast System – NOAA & Canadians (Navy Future)
- Mesoscale Modeling
- North American Model
- Rapid Refresh Model
- Short Range Ensemble Forecast System
- Hurricane Model
- Fire Weather – EMC
- Post Processing

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## Program Activities

**Computing Operations and Management**
- Operational Computing Acquisition and Management
- R&D Computing Acquisition and Management
- R&D Computing (Management Integration)
- NOAA HPC Computing (Oversight
**Communications Infrastructure**
- Operational Computing
- NOAA R&D Computing Communication
- NOAA Operations  - Internet 2 Access
**Computing Infrastructure**
**Advanced Computing Technique Development**
**ESMF**
**Advanced Computing Techniques**

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## Program Activities

- Data Assimilation System Development
- Atmospheric Data Assimilation System
- Land Data Assimilation
- Ocean Data Assimilation
- Data Assimilation Technique Development
- Satellite
- Radar
- Land
- Advanced Technique Development (not data or instrument specific)
- Observing System Studies

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## Program ActivitiesProposed Future

- Ecosystem Forecasting
- Ecosystem Model Integration (Physical & Biological) Joint With Ecosystems
- Transition to operations
- Operations
- Space Weather Forecasting
- Transition to Operations
- Operations

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## Program Performance Metrics

| Corporate/GPRA | Program |
| --- | --- |
| GPRA – 24 Hour Precipitation Forecast Accuracy (Forecaster) | 24 hour Precipitation Forecast Accuracy (model) |
| GPRA – Wave Forecast Accuracy (Forecaster) | 72 hour Index (model) |
| GPRA – Winter Storm Warning Accuracy and Lead Time | 5-Day 500MB Anomaly Correlation
Future:  Winter Storm Accuracy (Model) |
|  | Variance in Long-term Climate Projections |
|  GPRA - 48 hour Hurricane Track Error at Landfall (Forecaster) | Average 48 hour Track Error (model) |
| New GPRA – 48 hour Hurricane Intensity Forecast Error (Forecaster) | Average error of 48 hour Hurricane Intensity Forecast (model) |
| Aviation 1000’ Ceiling Forecast Accuracy (Forecaster)  | Aviation Ceiling Forecast Accuracy (model) |

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## EMP Gaps/AlternativesGoal Objectives Supported

| Gap/Alternative | W&W | Climate | C&T | Eco-
systems |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Improve Hurricane Intensity Forecast/Storm Surge/Coastal Inundation | YES |  | YES |  |
| IOOS Modeling and Analysis | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Support To Climate Predictions and Projections (Computing, Model Guidance, Re-forecasting) |  | YES |  | YES |
| Support to Commerce and Transportation
-  Aviation High Impact
-  Wave Modeling | YES |  | YES | YES |
| Accelerate NWP | YES | YES | YES |  |
| Data Assimilation | YES | YES | YES | YES |
| Post Processing for Forecast Uncertainty | YES | YES |  | Future |
| Ecosystem Forecasting (including HAB) |  |  |  | YES |
| Space Weather Models Transition & Operations | YES |  |  |  |
| Land Modeling | YES | YES | YES | Possible |

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## Environmental Modeling Program&Program Planning, Programming,  Budgeting and Execution 

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## Environmental ModelingMulti-dimensional Matrix

- Provides a ***Core*** NOAA Mission Capability - Analyses and Prediction
- A challenge and a strength of the program is its breadth
*Includes multiple Line Offices and Organizational Units (diff cultures)*
*Serving all four Mission Goals*
*Several disciplines; atmosphere, water, climate*
*Long and short time scales: from hours to decades*
*Crosses Research, Development, Operations (different cultures)*

- Life in the matrix:  “It’s not for sissies”   

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## Progress in the Matrix

- Building pathways for communication and trust across the matrix (NOAA)
- Takes time and effort
- Is essential to innovative and corporate thinking
- Getting Buy-In
- Use of a Steering Committee to involve science experts *and* managers in program decisions
- Articulating critical issues and strategies to address them
- To Senior Managers
- To the Team

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## Making Progress

- Integrated Planning
- Cross Organization
- Cross Discipline
- Integrated Capabilities
- Core Technologies Supporting Multiple Missions
- Data Assimilation and Analysis
- Global Prediction (the Earth System Model)
- Enables Mission-Unique Extensions
- Ecosystem Forecasting begins with an Integrated Multi-time Scale Physical Ocean Model

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## On-going Program Management Initiatives

- Weather Research Model (WRF) Program Implementation
- Inter-Agency Agreement
- WRF Develop Test Center Partnership
- Integrated Ocean Observing System - Modeling and Analysis Sub-system Definition
- Tri-Agency (Navy, NOAA, Air Force) Development of the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability
- Navy-NOAA Partnership for Operational Ocean Modeling
- Next-Generation Global Modeling System and Earth System Model
- NOAA High Performance Computing NOAA Administrative Order (NAO) Implementation
- Integrated Planning with Ecosystem Goal toward an “operational” Ecosystem Forecast System

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## Successes?

- R&D HPC – Acquisition and Management
- HPC Board
- NOAA Ownership of Assets
- Enhanced Partnerships with other Agencies
- More poised to articulate NOAA’s goals and gaps – Speak with One-voice
- Bring stronger group to discussions
- Program Manager:  Having a “face” for NOAA’s Modeling
- Sort through territorial games
- Represents Program to Senior Management
- Provides program management leadership

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## Where we want to go

- The world’s best Earth System Forecast is a NOAA-led National Effort
- Elevate NOAA’s National Computing Posture
- Elevate Environmental Modeling to a Cross-goal Enabling Program
- Improving NOAA’s Mission Capabilities Requires Improving Models
- Need to re-look at NOAA’s investment portfolio between Observations, Computing, and Modeling to Maximize Return on the Total Investment

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## Back-ups

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## WRF Management

- Multi-agency (NOAA, AF, Navy?, NSF, FAA) Memorandum of Agreement for management and evolution of WRF Program
- Empowers Program Manager and Steering Group
- Guides Evolution of WRF Model
- Joint Project Agreement for WRF DTC
- Defines scope, authority, and functions of WRF DTC
- Defines funding requirements, sources, and priorities
- Funding source identified for FY2007
- Fy2009 initiative to get WRF DTC in NOAA budget as a line item

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## IOOS Modeling and Analysis

- Working with IOOS project management and Goal lead to define NOAA-related IOOS and Modeling
- 2 page preliminary draft white-paper prepared describing intersection of IOOS modeling and analysis and NOAA EMP
- All IOOS M&A not in NOAA
- Some Ocean and Coastal Ocean Model Development
- All NOAA IOOS-related Modeling not in EMP
- Ecosystem Modeling Research
- Ecosystem Modeling Development

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## EMP Proposed NOAA IOOS M&A

- Global Ocean Physical Ocean Observing, Analysis, and Prediction System Back-bone
- Coast and coastal ocean physical modeling back-bone extensions
- Operational Ecosystem Forecasting Back-bone (built on above)
- Community Modeling Test-bed
- Observing System Evolution Capability to maximize return on NOAA and IOOS investments

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## Environmental Modeling Program  & IOOS Modeling and Analysis

- NOAA funds and operates ocean and coastal ocean physical and ecosystem backbone model (including ODA) system to meet NOAA requirements:
- Climate Prediction and Projection
- Marine Transportation and Safety
- Global Weather and Hurricane Forecasting
- Ecosystem Management

- IOOS Focus:
- Integration of Modeling Activities (within NOAA and with IOOS Community
- Observing System Design Activities
- Outreach to broader IOOS Community
- RA and Community Test-bed Activities
- Extensions to support IOOS Societal Goals

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## National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

- Tri-agency (NOAA, Navy, AF) effort to integrate and leverage our individual investments in atmospheric modeling
- Directed at agency head level
- Tiger-team established to develop and analyze 3 alternatives for a NUOPC
- NOAA team includes Fred Toepfer, Julian Wang, Mark Iredell, Al Powell
- Recommendation due Dec 31, 2006.
- Initial step: define alternatives to be evaluated – August 9 and 10

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## NOAA-Navy Ocean Modeling Partnership

- Directed in NOAA response to SAB on ocean modeling – Ocean Modeling Action Plan
- Environmental Modeling Program action
- NOS Technical Director Lead
- OAR support and liaison: Julian Wang
- Status review in preparation for AA’s and DUS

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## Global Modeling

- Purpose: Integrate NOAA’s Global Modeling efforts
- Environmental Modeling Workshop held January, 2006
- 5 Areas identified for further development -
- Strategic Plan and management
- Infrastructure
- Research and Development Agenda
- Test-beds
- Communication
- Follow-up being scheduled for this fall

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## Environmental Modeling HPC Responsibilities

- _SECTION  3.  POLICY__._
- .02 The NOAA Environmental Modeling Program (EMP) will manage NOAA’s HPC through an HPC Board to meet NOAA’s goals and subgoals.
- _SECTION  4.  RESPONSIBILITIES._
- .01 The Environmental Modeling Program Manager and the NOAA Chief Information Officer (CIO) are responsible for implementing this Order.
- .02 The CIO, or a designee (subject to the concurrence of the EMP Program Manager), will chair the HPC Board.

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## Environmental Modeling HPC Responsibilities

- _SECTION  4.  RESPONSIBILITIES. (cont.)_
- .03 The Environmental Modeling Program will:
- establish and appoint the HPC Board;
- provide prioritized and funded requirements to the HPC Board;
- have oversight to ensure that HPC has been used in accordance with NOAA’s goals and subgoals and priorities;
- promote and support the use of HPC to non-traditional HPC users across NOAA;
- work with the affected Mission Goal Leads, with the support of the HPC Board,  to satisfy Mission Goal requirements that are identified outside the scope of the EMP; and
- ensure that additional cost associated with requirements emanating from programs other than EMP shall be funded by the program to which the requirements are attributable.

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## HPC ManagementProposed Actions

- HPC Board working to develop and implement R&D HPC integrated management policy and procedures
- Environmental Modeling Program SG will meet
- Review/Approve charter & Membership of reconstituted HPC Board
- Establish R&D Computing Allocation Board
- Establish initial FY2007 allocations and priorities (Funded Requirements)
- Agree to Project Managers
- Quarterly Review to ensure FY2007 activities and milestones adequately supported; readjust allocations and priorities as required
- Review allocation with Goal and sub-Goal Leads

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## Proposed R&D HPC Projectsfor  FY2007

- Advanced Data Assimilation Research and Development
- Climate Test Bed
- ESMF and Software infrastructure Development
- High Performance Computing Grants to NOAA Labs
- Hydro-meteorological Test Bed
- Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
- Long-term Climate Model Research & Development
- Long-term Climate Scenario Generation
- Long-term Climate Scenario Analysis
- Next generation Global Atmospheric Model Research and Development

- Next-generation ocean model research and development
- Observing System Research and Development
- Re-forecasting Research and Development
- Global Reanalysis
- Regional Reanalysis
- Seasonal Climate Modeling Research and Development
- Seasonal Climate Model Calibration
- WRF Rapid Refresh Research and Development
- WRF DTC
- WRF DTC Computing Grants

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## EMP Gaps by Capability

|  | FY2009 | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MOE | 15,892 | 16,812 | 18,154 | 19,488 | 21,488 |
| DTT | 17,075 | 17,825 | 18,060 | 18,145 | 18,085 |
| SDE | 20,975 | 23,625 | 24,225 | 26,125 | 27,575 |
| OBR | 13,415 | 14,370 | 14,870 | 14,870 | 14,870 |
| CRE | 144,950 | 150,250 | 156,250 | 160,850 | 164,850 |
|  | 212,307 | 222,882 | 231,559 | 239,478 | 246,868 |

**MOE=Operations; DTT=Development, Test, & Transition; SDE=Scientific Development**
** ****& Evaluation;  OBR=Observations Research; & CRE=Computing Resource**

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## EMP PrioritiesAligned With AGM

- Hurricane Intensity (w/DTC)
- IOOS Ocean Modeling, ODA, Community Modeling Test-bed, and IOOS Observing System Evolution
- Ecosystem Forecasting
- Accelerate NWP Guidance
- Forecast Uncertainty

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