# Godschalk, Dr. David

## Page 1

New Directions in Mitigation

David R. Godschalk, FAICP

Stephen Baxter Professor of Planning

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

## Page 2 

Robert t. Stafford Disaster Relief & Emergency Assistance Act of 1988

-   Sec. 409 State Mitigation Plans

-   Submitted 180 days after presidentially -- declared disaster

-   Sec. 404 hazard mitigation grants

-   Federal matching funds for state & local mitigation projects

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Stafford Act

Disaster

State 409 Plan and State & Local 404 Grants

Risk Reduction

(Colored boxes showing visually what is described in slide 2)

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Disaster Policies Moving Toward Stronger Mitigation

-   1993 Midwest Floods

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-   1993 Hazard Mitigation & Relocation Assistance Act

-   National Flood Insurance Reform Act of 1994

-   1994 Galloway Report

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-   1994 Northridge Earthquake

    -   National Mitigation Strategy

    -   Project Impact

-   1999 Hurricane Floyd

    -   2000 Disaster Mitigation Act

**Page 5**

-   Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act amended

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-   Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000

    -   Sec 203 Pre-Disaster Hazard Mitigation

    -   Sec 322 Mitigation Planning

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-   Sustainable development linked to hazard mitigation

    -   Planning for a Sustainable Future (364) & Rebuilding for a More
        Sustainable Future (365) (FEMA 2000)

## Page 6 

2000 Disaster Act

322 Plans

404 Grants

Increased Resilience

Disaster

Sustainable Communities

(Colored boxes showing visually what is described in slide 5)

## Page 7 

Playing the New Mitigation Ball Game

-   Learn new rules in 2000 Disaster Act

-   Revise state 322 mitigation plan

-   Initiate local mitigation planning

-   Link mitigation and sustainable development

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Goal 1: Change Mitigation Culture from Post- to Pre-Disaster Mindset

-   Old 409 plans assumed *post-event* mitigation

-   322 plans assume *pre-event* mitigation

-   Funding incentives reinforce pre-event plans

## Page 9 

Goal 2: Broaden Mitigation League to Local Teams

-   Old 409 Plans often ignored localities

-   New 322 plans *require* local mitigation plans

-   New funding incentives reinforce local pre-event plans

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Goal 3: Merge Mitigation With Community Development

-   Create a vision of a sustainable & resilient community

-   Integrate hazard mitigation with development plans & decisions

-   Implement mitigation on many fronts, including HMGP, zoning, capital
    investment program (CIP), etc.

## Page 11

Mitigation Home Run -- Eligibility for 20% HMGP Funds

-   State pre-disaster plan

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-   Risk assessment

-   Mitigation strategy

-   Coordinated local mitigation planning

-   Plan maintenance process

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-   Local plan

    -   Risk assessment

    -   Mitigation strategy

    -   Plan maintenance process

## Page 12

2000 Disaster Act: If You Build It, Will They Come?

-   Dilemma: Before disaster, mitigation often low on state & local
    agendas (weak commitment)

-   2000 Act's incentives:

    -   HMGP funds go from 15 to 20% with FEMA-approved plan

    -   Up to 7% of HMGP funds for state, local, tribal plans

    -   Designation of Managing States under HMGP

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Potential Obstacles: Mitigation Strike Outs

-   Weak state and local commitment

-   Weak state and local capacity

-   Weak links between plans & implementation

-   Countervailing federal flood insurance

-   Weak private insurance cooperation

-   Lack of mitigation ethic

**Page 14**

(Colored boxes showing visually what is described in slide 13)

**Page 15**

A Winning State Game Plan: NC

-   2000 Project Impact Outstanding State Award

-   Hazard Mitigation Planning Initiative---requires local planning

-   \$400 mil. In HMGP from 9 disasters since 1996 to acquire 6000 homes
    & elevate 1000

-   Permanent Housing Replacement Program

-   Floodplain Mapping Initiative

-   Model state organization with 50 mitigation staff

## Page 16 

-   Risk Assessment

-   NC flood maps out of date (55% \> 10 years old, 75% \> 5 years old)

-   FEMA can deliver one new county flood map/year

-   NC re-mapping floodplains to create digital FIRMs

-   State allocated \$23 mil.: FEMA \$6 mil.

-   Maps will be on Internet for public use

-   Includes real-time flood forecasting/mapping

## Page 17

-   Mitigation Strategy: A Resilient State

-   322 plan vision is for a sustainable, resilient state

-   plan explicity links goals, objectives, and mitigation projects

-   Strategies for sustainable housing, business, infrastructure &
    critical facilities, & environment

-   See program on [www.ncem.org](http://www.ncem.org/)

## Page 18 

Local Mitigation Planning

-   State builds local capacity by:

    -   Funding demonstration community plans

    -   Technical assistance in vulnerability assessment, planning, &
        GIS\]

    -   Providing data at a county & regional scale

-   Required local mitigation plans if HMGP funds received

## Page 19

Plan Maintenance Process

-   Assessing effectiveness of mitigation policies

    -   Hazard Mitigation in NC; Measuring Success (NC DEM 2000)

    -   Hazard Mitigation Successes (NC DEM 1999)

## Page 20 

A Winning Local Game Plan: Kinston, NC

-   Neuse River flooded in Hurricane Fran (1996) & Floyd (1999)

-   Buyouts of 100 homes after Fran avoided \$6.3 mil. in losses from
    Floyd: set stage for current plan

-   Total buyout: 700 homes

-   Recovery plan based on smart growth & sustainable development

## Page 21 

Flooding from Floyd (Greenville subdivision)

Picture shows the subdivision partially flooded

**Page 22**

Visual shows City of Kinston with legend

Sewage treatment plant

Flooded Areas

City Boundary

Estimated Number in Flooded Area:

Population: 3268

Housing Units: 1411

**Page 23**

Kinston Smart Growth Hazard Mitigation Plan

-   Build back inside city

-   Maximize use of infrastructure

-   Provide safe housing

-   Relocate and elevate

-   Redevelop neighborhoods

-   Restore green space

**Page 24**

Visual shows City of Kinston with legend

Sewage treatment plant

Flooded Areas

City Boundary

Estimated Number in Flooded Area:

Population: 3268

Housing Units: 1411

**Page 25**

A Winning National Game Plan: Building a Congressional Fan Base

-   Congress passed Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 with proviso

-   Sec. 209. Within 3 years, Congressional Budget Office to study
    reduction in Federal disaster assistance resulting from Act

-   FEMA also directed to assess future savings from types of mitigation
    activities

## Page 26 

Identifying Mitigation Action Benefits

-   Multihazard Mitigation Council commissioned by FEMA to study
    benefits & cost of mitigation

-   Task: Quantify direct & indirect savings form types of mitigation

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Connecting Federal Programs to Mitigation

-   Need to connect all federal agencies to mitigation: housing (HUD),
    transportation (DOT), environment (EPA), economic development (EDA),
    etc.

-   Sec. 103 sets up a Federal interagency task force to coordinate
    pre-disaster mitigation

-   Chaired by FEMA director & including Federal agencies, state & local
    governments, Red Cross

## Page 28 

Building A Corps of Mitigation Players

-   Emergency Management Institute's Higher Education Project supports:

    -   College/university programs in emergency management
        ([www.fema.gov/emi/edu](http://www.fema.gov/emi/edu))

-   FEMA Mitigation Fellowships Program supports:

    -   Internships for graduate students in urban planning

## Page 29

Instilling Mitigation Ethics

-   Dilemma: responsibility for public safety avoided rather than shared

-   Need ethical guidelines to highlight ethical choices in mitigation:

    -   Who should benefit & who should pay

    -   What is public 7 what is individual responsibility

    -   How are priorities set (e.g., live/property,
        environment/economic)

## Page 30

Issuing a National Hazard Risk Report

-   Issue: risk not understood, thus commitment weak

-   National "at risk" report would educate public & decision makers
    about:

    -   Cumulative risks form disasters

    -   Efficacy of mitigation programs

    -   Benefits of mitigation

-   See 1966 Australian guide: Economic Assessment of Disaster
    Mitigation

## Page 31

Summary of New Directions

-   Pre-event mitigation

-   Local mitigation plans

-   Linkage of plans and projects

-   Identification of mitigation benefits

-   Coordination of federal programs

-   Education of mitigation planners

-   Instillation of mitigation ethics

-   National "at risk" report

## Page 32 

Selected References

Godschalk. et al. 1999. *Natural Hazard Mitigation: Recasting Disaster
Policy and Planning,* (Island Press)

Platt. 1999. *Disasters and Democracy: The Politics of Extreme Natural
Events*. (Island Press)