FECN11 CWIS 051800

THIRTY DAY FORECAST FOR THE GREAT LAKES FOR DECEMBER ISSUED JOINTLY BY
THE CANADIAN ICE SERVICE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AND THE U.S. NATIONAL ICE
CENTER OF THE UNITED STATES ON 05 DECEMBER 2002.

**[LAKE SUPERIOR]{.underline}**

Below normal temperatures were reported over the last month over the
forecast area. As a result ice has already developed in some bays along
the northern shore and in inner Thunder Bay which is a week to 10 days
earlier than normal.

Forecast ice conditions from December 05^th^ to mid-December.

Below normal temperatures will prevail over the next 5 days then
temperatures will rise to above normal until the middle of the month.
New lake ice will develop in eastern and northern Thunder Bay early next
week and thicken to thin lake ice by mid-December. New and thin lake ice
will develop along parts of the southwestern shore and in shallow bays
in eastern Whitefish Bay during the second week of December. At that
time ice in Black and Nipigon bays will have become consolidated.

Forecast ice conditions from mid-December to December 31^st^.

Above normal temperatures will continue during the second half of
December cooling to near normal over the last week of the month. As a
result slow to moderate ice growth is expected over the period. At the
end of December most of Thunder Bay will be covered by thin with some
medium lake ice. New and thin lake ice will predomimate along the
southern shore, in most of Whitefish Bay and and along the northern
shore. The rest of the Lake will be open water or ice free.

**[LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY]{.underline}**

Below normal temperatures were reported over the last month over the
forecast area. As a result patchy ice has already developed in Saginaw
Bay, in St Mary's River, along the coast of the North Channel and along
parts of the western shore of the lake which is a week to 10 days
earlier than normal.

Forecast ice conditions from December 05^th^ to mid-December.

Below normal temperatures will prevail over the next 5 days then
temperatures will rise to above normal until the middle of the month.
During the next week St Mary's River and Saginaw Bay will be completely
ice covered by thin lake. New lake ice will develop before mid-month in
the shallow bays in northeastern Georgian Bay and along the north shore
of the lake. At that time the northern section of the North Channel will
be covered by new and thin lake ice.

Forecast ice conditions from mid-December to December 31^st^.

Above normal temperatures will continue into the second half of
December, cooling to near normal for the last week of the month. As a
result slow to moderate ice growth is expected. The St Mary's River,
most of the North Channel, the southern section of Saginaw Bay and the
shallow bays in northeastern Georgian Bay will become consolidated
during the last week of December. At that time ice will have developed
in the northwest end of the Lake including the entrance to the Strait of
Mackinac. New lake ice is expected to develop along most of the shores
of the lake during the last fews days of the month. At the end of the
month new and thin lake ice will lie within 10 miles frem the northeast
Coast of Georgian Bay.

**[LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST. CLAIR]{.underline}**

Temperatures over the last month were near normal to slightly below
normal. New ice has developed over Long Point Bay and along the eastern
shore of Lake St. Clair.

Forecast ice conditions from December 05^th^ to mid-December.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures will prevail over the
forecast period. Little ice growth is expected. Patchy new lake ice is
expected to develop in the Western Basin by mid-month. Ice will persist
in Long Point Bay and in eastern Lake St. Clair. Otherwise Lake Erie
will remain ice free or open water.

Forecast ice conditions from mid-December to December 31^st^.

Above normal temperatures will prevail into the second half of December
cooling to near normal for the last week of the month. The Western Basin
and Lake St Clair will become completely covered by mostly thin lake ice
during the last week of the month. New lake ice will gradually develop
during the last week of the month along the southwestern and northern
shores of the lake and near Buffalo.

**[LAKE ONTARIO]{.underline}**

Patchy new lake ice in Bay of Quinte. Otherwise Ice free or open water.

Forecast ice conditions from December 05^th^ to mid-December.

Ice continuing to develop in Bay of Quinte. Otherwise Ice free or open
water persisting.

Forecast ice conditions from mid-December to December 31^st^.

Ice becoming consolidated in Bay of Quinte just after mid-December. New
lake ice will develop along the northeastern shore during the last week
of the month. Otherwise open water of ice free will prevail.

**[LAKE MICHIGAN]{.underline}**

Over Lake Michigan area, temperatures over the last month ranged from
normal over the southern section to below normal over the northern
section. Ice has developed in Little Bay de Noc, in Big Bay de Noc and
in southern Green Bay.

Forecast ice conditions from December 05^th^ to mid-December.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected over the next 2
weeks.

Ice will further develop in Green Bay to cover the southern half of the
bay at mid-month. At that time all of Little and Big Bay De Noc will be
ice covered.

Forecast ice conditions from mid-December to December 31^st^.

Slightly above to above normal temperatures are expected during the
period.

The southern half of Green Bay and all of Little and Big Bay De Noc will
become consolidated during the period. At that time thin lake ice will
be covering the northern section of Green Bay. New lake ice will develop
along the northeast shore of the Lake during the third week of the month
and spread and thicken to cover the northeast section of the lake,
including the entrance to the strait of Mackinac, by the end of the
month.

THE NEXT 30 DAY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON 18 DECEMBER 2002.

END