Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 2/4/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** JA4032

JA4032

**Japan**

**Livestock and Products**

**Semi-Annual Report**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Richard Battaglia

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Kakuyu Obara

**Report Highlights:**

Post expects Japan's beef consumption to fall by 8% in 2004 due largely
to Japan's import ban on U.S. beef, which has resulted in very tight
supplies, high prices, and depletion of stocks. Assuming Japan lifts its
ban on U.S. beef by early summer, total imports are expected to fall by
17% to 685,000 MT. Imports from the U.S. are expected down by about half
from last year, while imports from Australia and New Zealand are
expected rise substantially. The U.S. beef ban is expected to strengthen
2004 pork consumption, which is projected up by 3%. Imports of U.S. Pork
are expected to increase by about 2% to 357,000 MT in 2004.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Tokyo \[JA1\]

\[JA\]

[]{#__RefHeading___Toc68341035 .anchor}Table of Contents

[**Table of Contents 2**](#__RefHeading___Toc68341035)

[Beef Section 3](#beef-section)

[2004 Market Outlook 3](#market-outlook)

[Consumption 3](#consumption)

[Production 3](#production)

[Imports 3](#imports)

[2003 Market Situation Summary 3](#market-situation-summary)

[Pork Section 11](#pork-section)

[2004 Market Outlook 11](#market-outlook-1)

[Beef Ban Boosts Pork Consumption 11](#beef-ban-boosts-pork-consumption)

[No Change in Domestic Production 11](#no-change-in-domestic-production)

[Japan's Pork Imports Projected to Rise Modestly
11](#japans-pork-imports-projected-to-rise-modestly)

[Japan's New FTA with Mexico Includes Pork
11](#japans-new-fta-with-mexico-includes-pork)

[2003 Market Situation Summary 12](#market-situation-summary-1)

[Japanese Live Cattle PS&D Table 15](#japanese-live-cattle-psd-table)

[Japanese Beef PS&D Table 16](#japanese-beef-psd-table)

[Japanese Live Swine PS&D Table 17](#japanese-live-swine-psd-table)

[Japanese Pork PS&D Table 18](#japanese-pork-psd-table)

# Beef Section

# 

## 2004 Market Outlook

Post's 2004 Japan market outlook is based on the assumption that Japan's
import ban on U.S. beef will be lifted after six months, and that trade
will resume by early summer. Japan imposed a ban on U.S. beef on
December 24, 2003, following the detection of a case of BSE.

### Consumption

Japan's beef consumption is projected to fall by 8% in 2004 to 1.2 MMT,
due largely to Japan's ban on U.S. beef, which represents about
one-third of total consumption. Prices for imported and domestic beef
have jumped considerably since the ban was imposed, reflecting the
overall tight supply situation. Consumers are switching to pork and
seafood as a replacement for beef. Many Japanese restaurants, such as
the "gyudon" (beef bowl) chains, which rely heavily on U.S. beef, have
changed their menus to replace beef dishes with pork and seafood. The
tight supply situation is not expected to ease until U.S. imports resume
during the second half of the year. Increased imports from Australia and
New Zealand during the first several months of 2004 are insufficient to
offset the supply shortfall.

According to MAFF, sector shares of Japanese beef consumption in 2002
were estimated at 34% for household, 7% for processing, and 59% for food
service.

### Production 

Japan's 2004 beef production is expected to increase by 1% to 500,000
MT. This projection reflects the slight increase in the numbers of beef
and dairy cattle coming to slaughter during the year. Total cattle
slaughter is projected at 1.21 million head. A shortage of domestic beef
calves will likely result in increased imports of Australian feeder
calves in 2004.

### Imports 

Total 2004 beef imports are projected to fall by 17% to 685,000 MT
(CWE). Imports of U.S. beef are projected at about half of last year's
level, while imports from Australia and New Zealand are expected to jump
substantially.

The ban on U.S. beef will significantly impact Japan's beef safeguard.
Lower import levels will cause the trigger levels for Japan's beef
safeguard to be much lower during the last quarter of the next Japanese
fiscal year (April 2004 -- March 2005), and during the first quarter of
the following fiscal year (April 2005 -- March 2006). See Table 6 for
more information on Japan's beef safeguard.

## 2003 Market Situation Summary

Japanese beef consumption rose a modest 3% to 1.337 million MT in 2003,
following lower levels in 2002 due to the detection of BSE in Japan.
High domestic and international prices, implementation of Japan's
safeguard on imported chilled beef, and the detection of BSE in Canada,
capped the recovery in demand, and limited import growth. Beef imports
rebounded by 18% in 2003 to 823,000 MT (CWE), although imports remained
far below the record level achieved in 2001 (964,000 MT). The U.S.
import share in 2003 was 46%, compared to 49% for Australia (see Table
7).

**Table 1. Japanese Monthly Household Consumption of Beef, Pork,
Chicken, and Processed Meat**

  -------------- ---------- ---------- ------------- ---------- ------------- ----------
  Unit. Yens,                                                                 
  Grams per                                                                   
  Household                                                                   

                 **Beef**   ** **      **Pork**      ** **      **Chicken**   ** **

                 Yen        Grams      Yen           Grams      Yen           Grams

  2000           ¥ 26,140   10,099     ¥ 21,546      16,040     ¥ 10,605      11,591

  2001           ¥ 21,128   8,205      ¥ 22,133      16,341     ¥ 10,805      11,644

  \% Chg.        -19%       -19%       3%            2%         2%            0%

  2002           ¥ 20,076   7,694      ¥ 23,270      17,010     ¥ 11,405      12,061

  \% Chg.        -5%        -6%        5%            4%         6%            4%

  2003           ¥ 21,507   7,963      ¥ 21,855      16,365     ¥ 10,719      11,618

  \% Chg.        7%         3%         -6%           -4%        -6%           -4%

                                                                              

                 **Ham**    ** **      **Sausage**   ** **      **Bacon**     ** **

                 Yen        Grams      Yen           Grams      Yen           Grams

  2000           ¥ 6,928    3,254      ¥ 6,806       4,968      ¥ 2,251       1,310

  2001           ¥ 6,174    2,990      ¥ 6,744       5,061      ¥ 2,107       1,235

  \% Chg.        -11%       -8%        -1%           2%         -6%           -6%

  2002           ¥ 6,149    3,115      ¥ 6,645       5,028      ¥ 2,073       1,211

  \% Chg.        0%         4%         -1%           -1%        -2%           -2%

  2003           ¥ 6,219    3,189      ¥ 6,502       4,983      ¥ 2,067       1,231

  \% Chg.        1%         2%         -2%           -1%        0%            2%

  Source: Daily                                                               
  Meat and                                                                    
  Livestock                                                                   
  (Management                                                                 
  and                                                                         
  Coordination                                                                
  Ministry)                                                                   
  -------------- ---------- ---------- ------------- ---------- ------------- ----------

Table 2. Japanese Beef and Dairy Cattle Inventory

  ---------------------------------- ---------- ---------- -------- ---------- --------
  Unit: 1,000 heads/1,000 farms                                                

                                     **2001**   **2002**   **%      **2003**   **%
                                                           Chg.**              Chg.**

  Number of Beef Cattle Farms        110.1      104.2      -5%      98.1       -6%

  Number of Dairy Cattle Farms       32.2       31.0       -4%      29.8       -4%
  (Female)                                                                     

  Beef Cattle (Wagyu and Other)      1,679      1,711      2%       1,705      -0%

  Dairy Cattle for Beef              444        483        9%       470        -3%

  F-1 Cross Bred Cattle              682        644        -6%      630        -2%

  \'Sub Total Dairy & F-1 Cattle for 1,126      1,127      0%       1,100      -2%
  Beef                                                                         

  Total Beef Cattle Raised           2,806      2,838      1%       2,804      -1%

  Total Dairy Female Raised          1,725      1,726      0%       1,719      -0%

  Total Cattle Raised                4,531      4,564      1%       4,523      -2%

  Source: Ministry of Agriculture                                              
  ---------------------------------- ---------- ---------- -------- ---------- --------

Table 3. Japanese Cattle Slaughters by Breed

  ----------------------------- ---------- ---------- -------- ---------- --------
  Unit: 1,000 Heads                                                       

                                **2001**   **2002**   **%      **2003**   **%
                                                      Chg.**              Chg.**

  Wagyu female                  237        251        6%       215        -14%

  Dairy female                  178        153        -14%     195        28%

  F1 Cross female               96         145        51%      128        -11%

  Dairy & F1 Cross female       274        297        8%       324        9%
  Subtotal                                                                

  Other female                  1          1          9%       1          -6%

  Total Cow Slaughter           512        549        7%       540        -2%

  Wagyu Steer                   258        275        7%       246        -11%

  Wagyu Bull                    1          1          10%      1          -17%

  Dairy Steer                   204        260        27%      256        -2%

  F1 Cross Steer                117        165        41%      144        -13%

  Dairy & F1 Cross Steer        321        425        32%      399        -6%
  Subtotal                                                                

  [Other]{.underline}           12         12         6%       12         -3%

  Total Other Slaughter         591        714        21%      658        -8%

  **Total Cattle Slaughter**    1,103      1,263      14%      1,198      -5%

  Total Calf Slaughter          5          5          -11%     8          64%

  **Total Cattle & Calf         1,109      1,268      14%      1,205      -5%
  Slaughter**                                                             

  Source: MAFF Meat Trade                                                 
  Statistics                                                              

  Note: 2003 figures are                                                  
  preliminary.                                                            
  ----------------------------- ---------- ---------- -------- ---------- --------

Table 4. Quarterly Average Wholesale Price of Domestic Beef Carcass in
Tokyo

  ----------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- -------------
  Yens per kilo                                               

  WAGYU STEER A-3                                             
  GRADE                                                       

  **Year/Month**    **1st       **2nd     **3rd     **4th     **Yearly
                    Qtr.**      Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Ave.**

  2002              887         1,208     1,505     1,724     1,331

  2003              1,664       1,668     1,728     1,789     1,712

  \% Chg.           88%         38%       15%       4%        29%

  Note: Wagyu steer                                           
  average                                                     
  slaughtering age                                            
  is about 30                                                 
  months old.                                                 

                                                              

  WAGYU STEER A-2                                             
  GRADE                                                       

  **Year/Month**    **1st       **2nd     **3rd     **4th     **Yearly
                    Qtr.**      Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Ave.**

  2002              531         964       1,303     1,423     1,055

  2003              1,380       1,403     1,476     1,518     1,444

  \% Chg.           160%        46%       13%       7%        37%

  Note: Wagyu steer                                           
  average                                                     
  slaughtering age                                            
  is about 30                                                 
  months old.                                                 

                                                              

  WAGYU HEIFER A-3                                            
  GRADE                                                       

  **Year/Month**    **1st       **2nd     **3rd     **4th     **Yearly
                    Qtr.**      Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Ave.**

  2002              871         1,181     1,481     1,716     1,313

  2003              1,653       1,649     1,706     1,774     1,696

  \% Chg.           90%         40%       15%       3%        29%

  Note: Wagyu                                                 
  heifers are for                                             
  beef raised to                                              
  average                                                     
  slaughtering age                                            
  of about 30                                                 
  months old.                                                 

                                                              

  HOLSTEIN STEER                                              
  B-3 GRADE                                                   

  **Year/Month**    **1st       **2nd     **3rd     **4th     **Yearly
                    Qtr.**      Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Ave.**

  2002              204         423       708       839       544

  2003              686         694       699       754       708

  \% Chg.           236%        64%       -1%       -10%      30%

  Note: Holstein                                              
  steer average                                               
  slaughtering age                                            
  is about 22                                                 
  months old.                                                 

                                                              

  HOLSTEIN STEER                                              
  B-2 Grade                                                   

  **Year/Month**    **1st       **2nd     **3rd     **4^th^   **Yearly
                    Qtr.**      Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Ave.**

  2002              166         325       515       671       420

  2003              500         518       561       671       562

  \% Chg.           201%        59%       9%        -0%       34%

                                                              
  ----------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- -------------

**Table 4. Quarterly Average Wholesale Price of Domestic Beef Carcass in
Tokyo (Continued)**

  ----------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- -------------
  HOLSTEIN COW C-2                                            
  GRADE                                                       

  **Year/Month**    **1st       **2nd     **3rd     **4th     **Yearly
                    Qtr.**      Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Ave.**

  2002              99          151       261       372       221

  2003              319         364       372       388       361

  \% Chg.           223%        142%      43%       4%        64%

  Note: Holstein                                              
  cow is \"Spent                                              
  Cow\" with                                                  
  average                                                     
  slaughtering age                                            
  is about 6 -- 7                                             
  years old.                                                  

                                                              

                                                              

  F1 CROSS HEIFER                                             
  B-3 GRADE                                                   

  **Year/Month**    **1st       **2nd     **3rd     **4th     **Yearly
                    Qtr.**      Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Ave.**

  2002              449         726       1,120     1,291     897

  2003              1,202       1,207     1,240     1,266     1,229

  \% Chg.           168%        66%       11%       -2%       37%

  Note: F1 cross                                              
  heifer is for                                               
  beef raised for                                             
  average                                                     
  slaughtering age                                            
  of 24 -- 26                                                 
  months.                                                     

                                                              

  F1 CROSS HEIFER                                             
  B-2 GRADE                                                   

  **Year/Month**    **1st       **2nd     **3rd     **4th     **Yearly
                    Qtr.**      Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Ave.**

  2002              289         568       937       1,012     701

  2003              890         871       928       954       911

  \% Chg.           208%        53%       -1%       -6%       30%

                                                              

  F1 CROSS STEER                                              
  B-3 GRADE                                                   

  **Year/Month**    **1st       **2nd     **3rd     **4th     **Yearly
                    Qtr.**      Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Qtr.**    Ave.**

  2002              453         737       1,148     1,330     917

  2003              1,252       1,235     1,276     1,298     1,265

  \% Chg.           177%        67%       11%       -2%       38%

  Note: F1 cross                                              
  steer average                                               
  slaughtering age                                            
  is about 24 -- 26                                           
  months old.                                                 

                                                              

  F1 CROSS STEER                                              
  B-2 GRADE                                                   

  Year/Month        1st Qtr.    2nd Qtr.  3rd Qtr.  4th Qtr.  Yearly Ave.

  2002              304         579       947       1,056     722

  2003              922         909       966       999       949

  \% Chg.           203%        57%       2%        -5%       32%

  Source: ALIC                                                
  Monthly                                                     
  ----------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- -------------

Table 5. Japanese Monthly Ending Beef Stock Estimates

  -------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
   Unit: MT                                                              
  (Carcass                                                               
  Equivalent)                                                            

  ** **          **2001**      **2002**      **% Chg.**    **2003**      **% Chg.**

  Jan.           148,747       193,831       30%           133,924       -31%

  Feb.           146,500       192,626       31%           133,984       -30%

  Mar.           155,190       188,636       22%           138,349       -27%

  Apr.           144,791       177,647       23%           126,871       -29%

  May            147,774       172,891       17%           122,140       -29%

  Jun.           154,961       171,276       11%           115,050       -33%

  Jul.           145,696       161,564       11%           125,347       -22%

  Aug.           132,889       158,119       19%           114,453       -28%

  Sept..         140,647       160,770       14%           113,511       -29%

  Oct.           181,937       146,539       -19%          117,189       -20%

  Nov.           195,589       144,354       -26%          119,547       -17%

  Dec.           198,961       128,636       -35%          109,487       -15%

  Source: ALIC                                                           
  Monthly                                                                
  Statistics                                                             
  -------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------

**Table 6. Japanese Beef Safeguard Update JFY 2003 (April 03 --** March
04)

  ---------------- ------------- ------------ --------- ---------- -----------
  Unit: MT                                                         
  (Customs                                                         
  Clearance                                                        
  Basis)                                                           

  **Chilled Beef** Trigger Level Cum. Total   April     May        June

  I (Apr. - Jun.)  63,563        **72,747**   25,132    25,419     22,196

                                              July      August     September

  I - II (Apr. -   137,632       142,974      30,687    17,709     21,831
  Sept.)                                                           

                                              October   November   December

  I - III (Apr. -  221,878       204,618      24,061    18,819     18,764
  Dec.)                                                            

                                              January   February   March

  I - IV (Apr. -   298,552       0            0         0          0
  Mar.)                                                            

  **Frozen Beef**  Trigger Level Cum. Total   April     May        June

  I (Apr. - Jun.)  67,640         60,906      18,562    20,064     22,280

                                              July      August     September

  I - II (Apr. -   157,122       78,379       32,033    21,347     24,999
  Sept.)                                                           

                                              October   November   December

  I - III (Apr. -  230,920       163,734      26,868    32,860     25,627
  Dec.)                                                            

                   ** **                      January   February   March

  I - IV (Apr. -   326,035       0            0         0          0
  Mar.)                                                            

  Source: Ministry                                                 
  of Finance (ALIC                                                 
  Monthly)                                                         
  ---------------- ------------- ------------ --------- ---------- -----------

Note: Beef imports dropped considerably during the first quarter of
Japan's 2002 fiscal year (April 2001 -- March 2002) due to the detection
of BSE in Japan. Subsequently, the 2003 trigger level for the safeguard
was calculated at a very low level since it is based on 117% of the
previous year's imports. As beef imports recovered to "normal" levels in
2003, the trigger level for chilled beef was exceeded and the tariff
jumped to 50% starting August 1, 2003. The safeguard tariff will remain
until the end of the current fiscal year in March 2004. The safeguard on
frozen beef did not trigger.

**Table 7. Japanese Beef Imports** 2003

  ---------- ------------------- ------------- ------- ------------- ------- ------------- ------- ----------- ----------
  ** **      **World Trade                     ** **                 ** **                 ** **               
             Atlas**                                                                                           

             **Product Group**                                                                                 

             **BEEF**                                                                                          

             **Quantity (MT,                                                                                   
             Customs Clearance                                                                                 
             Basis)**                                                                                          

             **January -                                                                                       
             December**                                                                                        

  ** **      ** **               ** **                 ** **                 ** **                 **%         **03
                                                                                                   Change**    Shares**

  **Rank**   **Country**         **2001**              **2002**              **2003**              **03/02**    

  **0**      **\--World\--**     **674,938**           **486,741**           **576,086**           **18%**     **100%**

  **1**      **Australia**       **324,125**           **230,499**           **283,681**           **23%**     **49%**

  **2**      **United States**   **311,060**           **226,518**           **267,288**           **18%**     **46%**

  3          New Zealand         16,497                10,307                17,061                66%         3%

  4          Canada              22,642                19,052                7,463                 -61%        1%

  5          Vanuatu             540                   309                   573                   86%         0%

  6          Namibia             0                     0                     15                    n.a.        0%

  7          Anguilla            27                    0                     4                     n.a.        0%

  8          Chile               0                     10                    0                     -96%        0%

  9          Mexico              1                     7                     0                     -97%        0%

  10         Nicaragua           0                     0                     0                     n.a.        0%

  11         Others              46                    40                    0                     -100%       0%
  ---------- ------------------- ------------- ------- ------------- ------- ------------- ------- ----------- ----------

  -----------------------------------------------------------------------
  Source: Japan Customs (Prepared by Ag. Office from World Atlas)

  -----------------------------------------------------------------------

# Pork Section

## 2004 Market Outlook

Japan's ban on U.S. beef is expected to strengthen overall pork
consumption, bolstered by solid demand in Japan's retail and food
service sectors. Large stocks of frozen pork, which accumulated during
2003, are being drawn down to meet increased demand. Imports are
expected to increase by about 2%, with all major suppliers, including
the United States, making gains. Japan's FTA agreement with Mexico on
pork is not expected to significantly impact the current trade
situation.

### Beef Ban Boosts Pork Consumption 

Tight beef supplies will likely boost overall demand for pork in 2004,
which is projected to increase by 3% to 2.4 million MT. The pick-up in
consumption is expected to be most noticeable in Japan's food service
sector, which is substituting pork for imported beef. "Guydon" (beef
bowl) restaurants, for example, have introduced "ton don" (pork bowl)
dishes as a replacement for beef bowl dishes. Large stocks of frozen
pork, which accumulated last year, have been drawn down to meet
strengthening demand. Wholesale prices for imported and domestic pork,
which weakened last year, have risen in recent months and are expected
to stay relatively high during the first half of 2004. The resumption of
U.S. beef imports (by early summer) will likely slow pork demand and
pressure wholesale prices.

According to MAFF, sector shares of Japanese pork consumption in 2002
were estimated at 42% for household, 24% for processing, and 34% for
food service.

### No Change in Domestic Production

Japan's pork production is projected to remain unchanged from last year
at 1.26 million MT. The resumption of U.S. beef imports will likely
discourage Japanese hog producers from increasing production later in
the year. Although hog prices are expected to remain strong during the
first half of 2004, they may soften once U.S. beef imports resume.

### Japan's Pork Imports Projected to Rise Modestly

Pork imports are expected to rise by 2% to 1.10 MMT (CWE) in 2004. Ample
stocks of frozen pork and an expected lull in market demand toward the
end of the year will likely cap imports. As in past years, imports are
expected to surge during the first quarter of Japan's fiscal year (April
-- June 2004), when the pork safeguard is lifted (on April 1, 2004). It
is unclear whether the first quarter trigger level, which is
preliminarily calculated at 268,188 MT, will be high enough to avoid the
pork safeguard during the next fiscal year.

Imports of U.S. pork are projected to increase by 2% from last year to
357,000 MT (CWE), with a total import share at around 32%. Imports from
Denmark, the European Union and Canada, are also expected to increase in
2004.

### Japan's New FTA with Mexico Includes Pork 

Japan agreed to establish a 38,000 MT Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) for
Mexican pork imports for the first year of the agreement, and to expand
the TRQ to 80,000 MT in the fifth year. Mexican pork will still be
subject to Japan's pork differential duty (gate price) system, although
Japan agreed to a cut in the ad valorem portion of the duty from 4.3% to
2.2%. The ad valorem tariff is applied to imports above the gate price,
i.e., the minimum import price. Initial reports suggest that Mexico's
TRQ will be exempt from Japan's pork safeguard, although the full
details have yet to be released. This agreement is expected to minimally
impact U.S. pork exports to Japan. In 2003, Mexican pork imports were
35,000 MT, which was only 5% of total imports.

## 2003 Market Situation Summary

Pork consumption fell by 1% to 2.3 million MT in 2003, reflecting a
recovery in beef consumption. Solid demand in the food service sector
partially offset a 4% drop in household consumption. Pork imports
dropped by 3% to 1.075 million MT due to due surplus supplies and low
prices. The U.S. was the leading supplier of pork to Japan in 2003 with
a 33% market share, followed by Denmark at 29%, and Canada and 22% (See
table 8-11).

**Table 8**. Quarterly Average Wholesale Price of Domestic Pork Carcass
in Tokyo

  ------------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------------
  Unit: Yen per                                              
  Kilo                                                       

  **Category by                                              
  Meat Grade**                                               

  Excellent                                                   
  Grade                                                      

  Year/Month    **1st      **2nd       **3rd      **4th      **Yearly Ave.**
                Qtr.**     Qtr.**      Qtr.**     Qtr.**     

  2001          434        484         506        506        **482**

  2002          498        559         510        396        **491**

  \% Chg.       15%        16%         1%         -22%       **2%**

  2003          413        460         426        397        **424**

  \% Chg.       -17%       -18%        -16%       0%         **-14%**

                                                             ** **

  Medium Grade                                                

  Year/Month    **1st      **2nd       **3rd      **4th      **Yearly Ave.**
                Qtr.**     Qtr.**      Qtr.**     Qtr.**     

  2001          395        448         469        476        **447**

  2002          459        525         469        355        **452**

  \% Chg.       16%        17%         0%         -25%       **1%**

  2003          362        408         359        332        **365**

  \% Chg.       -21%       -22%        -23%       -7%        **-19%**

  Source: ALIC                                               
  Monthly                                                    
  Statistics                                                 
  (Compiled by                                               
  Ag. Office,                                                
  Ag. Office                                                 
  Tokyo)                                                     
  ------------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------------

**Table 9. Japanese Monthly Ending Pork Stocks Estimates**

  ---------------- ---------- ---------- -------- ---------- -------- ---------- --------
  Unit: MT                                                                       
  (Carcass                                                                       
  Equivalent)                                                                    

  **Month/Year**   **2000**   **2001**   **%      **2002**   **%      **2003**   **%
                                         Chg.**              Chg.**              Chg.**

  Jan.             113,990    142,479    25%      187,276    31%      210,374    12%

  Feb.             139,017    157,700    13%      196,929    25%      209,909    7%

  Mar.             157,403    177,584    13%      205,100    15%      202,273    -1%

  Apr.             135,407    190,736    41%      220,861    16%      239,071    8%

  May              137,523    220,564    60%      226,903    3%       257,789    14%

  Jun.             138,590    226,827    64%      216,370    -5%      252,813    17%

  Jul.             136,606    267,300    96%      251,339    -6%      303,764    -100%

  Aug.             141,170    229,423    63%      225,249    -2%      272,654    -100%

  Sept.            133,736    200,433    50%      209,839    5%       253,967    -100%

  Oct.             130,064    182,911    41%      196,200    7%       233,366    -100%

  Nov.             130,061    173,560    33%      197,524    14%      221,971    -100%

  Dec.             126,021    169,479    34%      190,570    12%      210,947    -100%

  Source: ALIC                                                                    
  Monthly                                                                        
  Statistics                                                                     
  ---------------- ---------- ---------- -------- ---------- -------- ---------- --------

**Table 10 -- Japanese Pork Safeguard Update JFY 2003 (April 03 --**
March 04)

  ----------------- -------------- ------------- ----------- ---------- -----------
  Unit: MT (Customs                                                     
  Clearance Basis)                                                      

                    **Trigger      **Cum.        **April**   **May**    **June**
                    Level**        Total**                              

  I (Apr. - Jun.)   220,706        **239,803**   102,883     77,341     59,579

                                                 July        August     September

  I - II (Apr. -    429,414        446,091       120,591     38,176     47,521
  Sept.)                                                                

                                                 October     November   December

  II - III (Apr. -  641,268        610,832       58,793      50,865     55,083
  Dec.)                                                                 

                                                 January     February   March

  III - IV (Apr. -  839,279        0             0           0          0
  Mar.)                                                                 

  Source: Ministry                                                      
  of Finance and                                                        
  ALIC Monthly                                                          
  ----------------- -------------- ------------- ----------- ---------- -----------

Note: Japan's pork safeguard trigger level includes both chilled and
frozen pork, and is calculated based on the average of the previous
three years quarterly cumulative imports multiplied by 1.19 (119%). In
2003, as Japan's fiscal year first quarter trigger level for pork was
exceeded, the gate price for pork cuts was raised by 25% from 525 yen
per kilo to 653 yen per kilo from August, where it will remain until the
end of the current fiscal year in March 2004.

Table 11. Japanese Pork Imports 2003

+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| * | **World Trade    |   | ** ** |   | * |        | ** **  |        |
| * | Atlas**          |   |       |   | * |        |        |        |
|   |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  |   |       |   | * |        |        |        |
| * |                  |   |       |   | * |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
|   | **Product        |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
|   | Group**          |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
|   | **PORK**         |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
|   | **Quantity (MT,  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
|   | Customs          |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
|   | Clearance        |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
|   | Basis)**         |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
|   | **January -      |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
|   | December**       |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| * | ** **            | * |       | * |   | ** **  | **%    | ###### |
| * |                  | * |       | * |   |        | Ch     |  Share |
|   |                  |   |       |   |   |        | ange** |        |
| * |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| * | **Country**      | * |       | * |   | **     | **0    | **     |
| * |                  | * |       | * |   | 2003** | 3/02** | 2003** |
| R |                  | 2 |       | 2 |   |        |        |        |
| a |                  | 0 |       | 0 |   |        |        |        |
| n |                  | 0 |       | 0 |   |        |        |        |
| k |                  | 1 |       | 2 |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| * | **\--World\--**  | * |       | * |   | **752  | *      | **     |
| * |                  | * |       | * |   | ,601** | *-3%** | 100%** |
| 0 |                  | 7 |       | 7 |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | 0 |       | 7 |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | 8 |       | 7 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | , |       | , |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 6 |       | 5 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 8 |       | 8 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 4 |       | 2 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| * | **United         | * |       | * |   | **245  | *      | *      |
| * | States**         | * |       | * |   | ,428** | *-1%** | *33%** |
| 1 |                  | 2 |       | 2 |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | 4 |       | 4 |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | 4 |       | 8 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | , |       | , |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 8 |       | 8 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 4 |       | 6 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 6 |       | 7 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| * | **Denmark**      | * |       | * |   | **219  | *      | *      |
| * |                  | * |       | * |   | ,909** | *-8%** | *29%** |
| 2 |                  | 2 |       | 2 |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | 1 |       | 3 |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | 3 |       | 9 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | , |       | , |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 4 |       | 8 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 5 |       | 8 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 7 |       | 4 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| * | **Canada**       | * |       | * |   | **166  | *      | *      |
| * |                  | * |       | * |   | ,604** | *-7%** | *22%** |
| 3 |                  | 1 |       | 1 |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | 5 |       | 7 |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | 3 |       | 9 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | , |       | , |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 0 |       | 1 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 5 |       | 1 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 1 |       | 7 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| * | **Mexico**       | * |       | * |   | **34   | **     | **5%** |
| * |                  | * |       | * |   | ,474** | -15%** |        |
| 4 |                  | 4 |       | 4 |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | 2 |       | 0 |   |        |        |        |
| * |                  | , |       | , |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 2 |       | 6 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 0 |       | 3 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 1 |       | 3 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | * |       | * |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| 5 | Chile            | 1 |       | 2 |   | 28,189 | 31%    | 4%     |
|   |                  | 0 |       | 1 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | , |       | , |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 1 |       | 5 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 1 |       | 8 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 6 |       | 6 |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| 6 | Hungary          | 1 |       | 1 |   | 14,414 | -14%   | 2%     |
|   |                  | 3 |       | 6 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | , |       | , |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 1 |       | 8 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 9 |       | 5 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 7 |       | 8 |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| 7 | Australia        | 8 |       | 1 |   | 12,394 | -6%    | 2%     |
|   |                  | , |       | 3 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 8 |       | , |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 1 |       | 1 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 9 |       | 8 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  |   |       | 9 |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| 8 | Netherlands      | 2 |       | 6 |   | 9,693  | 1470%  | 1%     |
|   |                  | , |       | 1 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 7 |       | 7 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 6 |       |   |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 2 |       |   |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| 9 | France           | 6 |       | 0 |   | 5,753  | n.a.   | 1%     |
|   |                  | , |       |   |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 1 |       |   |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 0 |       |   |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 5 |       |   |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| 1 | Ireland          | 3 |       | 1 |   | 5,368  | 377%   | 1%     |
| 0 |                  | , |       | , |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 4 |       | 1 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 8 |       | 2 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 1 |       | 6 |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| 1 | Others           | 1 |       | 1 |   | 10,375 | -34%   | 1%     |
| 1 |                  | 0 |       | 5 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | , |       | , |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 6 |       | 7 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 5 |       | 0 |   |        |        |        |
|   |                  | 0 |       | 4 |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+
| S |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| o |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| u |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| r |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| c |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| e |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| : |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| J |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| a |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| p |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| a |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| n |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| C |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| u |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| s |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| t |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| o |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| m |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| s |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| ( |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| P |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| r |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| e |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| p |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| a |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| r |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| e |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| d |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| b |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| y |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| A |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| g |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| . |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| O |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| f |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| f |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| i |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| c |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| e |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| f |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| r |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| o |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| m |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| W |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| o |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| r |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| l |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| d |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| A |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| t |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| l |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| a |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| s |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
| ) |                  |   |       |   |   |        |        |        |
+---+------------------+---+-------+---+---+--------+--------+--------+

# Japanese Live Cattle PS&D Table

  ------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Country**         **Japan**                                               

  **Commodity**       **Animal                          (1000                 
                      Numbers,                          HEAD)                 
                      Cattle**                                                

                      2002        Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast

                      USDA        Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                      Official    Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                      \[Old\]     \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year                   01/2002               01/2003               01/2004
  Begin**                                                                     

  Total Cattle Beg.   4564        4564       4523       4523       4537       4520
  Stks                                                                        

  Dairy Cows Beg.     966         966        964        964        960        960
  Stks                                                                        

  Beef Cows Beg.      637         637        643        643        640        640
  Stocks                                                                      

  Production (Calf    1435        1447       1430       1445       1400       1435
  Crop)                                                                       

  Intra EC Imports    0           0          0          0          0          0

  Total Imports       15          15         20         23         19         25

  TOTAL Imports       15          15         20         23         19         25

  TOTAL SUPPLY        6014        6026       5973       5991       5956       5980

  Intra EC Exports    0           0          0          0          0          0

  Total Exports       0           0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL Exports       0           0          0          0          0          0

  Cow Slaughter       547         549        540        540        535        555

  Calf Slaughter      5           5          5          8          5          5

  Other Slaughter     668         714        615        658        610        650

  Total Slaughter     1220        1268       1160       1206       1150       1210

  Loss                271         235        276        265        275        240

  Ending Inventories  4523        4523       4537       4520       4531       4530

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION  6014        6026       5973       5991       5956       5980

  Calendar Yr. Imp.   129         129        130        159        130        0
  from U.S.                                                                   

  Calendar Yr. Exp.   0           0          0          0          0          0
  to U.S.                                                                     
  ------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

Note: Unit for Calendar Year from U.S. indicated as (Head), instead of
1,000 Head

# Japanese Beef PS&D Table

  ------------------ ----------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ----------
  **Country**        **Japan**                                                

  **Commodity**      **Meat,                           (1000 MT               
                     Beef and                          CWE)(1000              
                     Veal**                            HEAD)                  

                     2002        Revised    2003       Estimate    2004       Forecast

                     USDA        Post       USDA       Post        USDA       Post
                     Official    Estimate   Official   Estimate    Official   Estimate
                     \[Old\]     \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]     \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year                  01/2002               01/2003                01/2004
  Begin**                                                                     

  Slaughter          1220        1268       1160       1206        1150       1210
  (Reference)                                                                 

  Beginning Stocks   199         199        129        129         104        110

  Production         535         537        505        495         500        500

  Intra EC Imports   0           0          0          0           0          0

  Total Imports      707         696        825        823         885        685

  TOTAL Imports      707         696        825        823         885        685

  TOTAL SUPPLY       1441        1432       1459       1447        1489       1295

  Intra EC Exports   0           0          0          0           0          0

  Total Exports      0           0          0          0           0          0

  TOTAL Exports      0           0          0          0           0          0

  Human Dom.         1312        1303       1355       1337        1385       1225
  Consumption                                                                 

  Other Use, Losses  0           0          0          0           0          0

  TOTAL Dom.         1312        1303       1355       1337        1385       1225
  Consumption                                                                 

  Ending Stocks      129         129        104        110         104        70

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION 1441        1432       1459       1447        1489       1295

  Calendar Yr. Imp.  324         324        379        382         407        185
  from U.S.                                                                   

  Calendar Yr. Exp.  0           0          0          0           0          0
  to U.S.                                                                     
  ------------------ ----------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ----------

# Japanese Live Swine PS&D Table

  ------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Country**         **Japan**                                               

  **Commodity**       **Animal                          (1000                 
                      Numbers,                          HEAD)                 
                      Swine**                                                 

                      2002        Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast

                      USDA        Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                      Official    Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                      \[Old\]     \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year                   01/2002               01/2003               01/2004
  Begin**                                                                     

  TOTAL Beginning     9612        9612       9725       9725       9700       9720
  Stocks                                                                      

  Sow Beginning       916         916        929        929        925        930
  Stocks                                                                      

  Production (Pig     17000       17000      17250      17250      17200      17290
  Crop)                                                                       

  Intra EC Imports    0           0          0          0          0          0

  Total Imports       0           0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL Imports       0           0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY        26612       26612      26975      26975      26900      27010

  Intra EC Exports    0           0          0          0          0          0

  Total Exports       0           0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL Exports       0           0          0          0          0          0

  Sow Slaughter       0           0          0          0          0          0

  OTHER SLAUGHTER     16183       16184      16450      16381      16400      16400

  Total Slaughter     16183       16184      16450      16381      16400      16400

  Loss                704         703        825        874        800        870

  Ending Inventories  9725        9725       9700       9720       9700       9740

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION  26612       26612      26975      26975      26900      27010

  Calendar Yr. Imp.   188         188        70         77         100        70
  from U.S.                                                                   

  Calendar Yr. Exp.   0           0          0          0          0          0
  to U.S.                                                                     
  ------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

Note: Unit for Calendar Year from U.S. indicated as (Head), instead of
1,000 Head

# Japanese Pork PS&D Table

  ------------------ ----------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ----------
  **Country**        **Japan**                                                

  **Commodity**      **Meat,                           (1000 MT               
                     Swine**                           CWE)(1000              
                                                       HEAD)                  

                     2002        Revised    2003       Estimate    2004       Forecast

                     USDA        Post       USDA       Post        USDA       Post
                     Official    Estimate   Official   Estimate    Official   Estimate
                     \[Old\]     \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]     \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year                  01/2002               01/2003                01/2004
  Begin**                                                                     

  Slaughter          16183       16184      16450      16381       16400      16400
  (Reference)                                                                 

  Beginning Stocks   170         170        191        191         221        211

  Production         1236        1236       1260       1259        1255       1260

  Intra EC Imports   0           0          0          0           0          0

  Total Imports      1162        1111       1150       1075        1150       1100

  TOTAL Imports      1162        1111       1150       1075        1150       1100

  TOTAL SUPPLY       2568        2517       2601       2525        2626       2571

  Intra EC Exports   0           0          0          0           0          0

  Total Exports      0           0          0          0           0          0

  TOTAL Exports      0           0          0          0           0          0

  Human Dom.         2377        2326       2380       2314        2435       2380
  Consumption                                                                 

  Other Use, Losses  0           0          0          0           0          0

  TOTAL Dom.         2377        2326       2380       2314        2435       2380
  Consumption                                                                 

  Ending Stocks      191         191        221        211         191        191

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION 2568        2517       2601       2525        2626       2571

  Calendar Yr. Imp.  356         356        336        351         329        357
  from U.S.                                                                   

  Calendar Yr. Exp.  0           0          0          0           0          0
  to U.S.                                                                     
  ------------------ ----------- ---------- ---------- ----------- ---------- ----------

#