**APPENDIX E**

**EXAMPLES OF OTHER HARDWARE**

**ESTIMATING MODELS**

**FROM THE SPACE SYSTEMS COST ANALYSIS GROUP**

**APPENDIX E**

**EXAMPLES OF OTHER HARDWARE ESTIMATING MODELS**

**[OTHER HARDWARE MODELS]{.underline}**

Advance Missions Cost Model NASA JSC

Aerospace Small Satellite Cost Model The Aerospace Corp.

ALS/ADP Cost Model USAF Phillips Lab

EHF/SHF Communications Cost Model USAF SMC/FMC

Hypercost NASA JPL

Launch Vehicle Cost Model TECOLOTE

NASCOM NASA MARSHALL

Non Nuclear Power NASA LeRC

Nuclear Space Power NASA LeRC

Parametric Cost Model Parametric Consultants/England

Passive Sensor Cost Model USAF SMC/FMC

SCEEDOS USAF SMC

Sensat Owl Wise Laboratory

Solid Rocket Motor Cost Model TECOLOTE

STACEM AF Astronautics Lab

TRANSCOST Deutsche Aerospace

Unmanned Spacecraft Cost Model USAF SMC

Some examples follow.

**COST MODEL DESCRIPTION**

Title: **Advance Missions Cost Model (AMCM**)

Purpose: To predict development, recurring and mission operations costs
of future space systems, including launch vehicles, spacecraft and human
explorations missions.

Applicability: The AMCM is a system level cost model, therefore it is
more appropriate for large scale programs requiring many different
systems that will be integrated to perform a complex mission. The
methodology is most useful in the pre-conceptual and conceptual design
phases of a program when the actual design of the systems is not known
and many factors are being traded off.

Model Description: The AMCM is a two equation, multi-variable cost
estimating relationship. The first equation predicts the development and
production cost of the system based of various technical and
programmatic factors. The second equation predicts the basic mission
operations cost of the system. Both equations are fitted to a historical
database for AMCM includes ground vehicles, ships, aircraft,
helicopters, and missiles as well as launch vehicles and spacecraft. The
database spans 50 years of systems development. Most of the systems are
US Government developed, but some commercial and European systems are
included.

Status/Availability: The AMCM is complete and is periodically updated.
The latest release of the development model is Version 4.1 dated July
1992. The mission operations segment of the model was last updated in
November 1986. Papers describing the model are available from the
author; Kelley Cyr of NASA JSC. A personal computer version of the model
that runs with Microsoft Excel is also being developed.

Input Variables: - Development Quantity

\- Production Quantity

\- Unit Dry Weight

\- Specification value (a numeric value representing the operating type
and mission environment)

\- Initial Operating Capability (IOC) year

\- Block Number

\- Difficulty Factor

\- Number of Years of Operations

Output: Development, production and operations costs in millions of
dollars. For space systems, the cost estimates are for prime contractor
cost only and do not include fee, program support, or other government
costs. For non-space systems, the costs are all inclusive.

Data Source: A large historical 50-year database of land, water, air and
space systems. The data includes 54 spacecrafts, 22 space transportation
systems, 61 aircraft, 86 missiles, 29 ships, and 18 ground vehicles. All
of the data points are from programs that were completed through IOC.

Point of Contact: Kelley Cyr, National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, Johnson Space Center, Mail Code BZ, Houston, Texas 77058

User Community: Cost Analysts, Project Managers, Systems Engineers

Principle Ground Rules/ The AMCM development model is primarily based on
raw

Assumption/Limitations: data from contractors, government reports and
published sources. The original data was adjusted to constant year 1991
dollars using various inflation factors. The basic model does not
distinguish between non-recurring and recurring cost because of the
difficulties associated with separating the costs in development
programs with very small production runs. The recurring cost of the
system can be computed from the CER's by calculating the marginal cost.
The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the model is approximately
45%.

Software: The CER's can be easily programmed in any language or
spreadsheet. A Microsoft Excel add-in application is being developed.

Equipment: The Microsoft Excel add-in application will be able to run on
any platform that supports Microsoft Excel.

CER Format: Cost = a • Q^b^ • W^c^ • d^S^ • e^(1/(IOC-1900))^ • B^f^
•g^D^

Q is the quantity

W is the weight

s is the Specification

IOC is the IOC year

B is the Block Number

D is the Difficulty Factor

a-g are model parameters

Title: **Aerospace Small Satellite Cost Model (SSCM)**

Purpose: To evaluate cost of designing, building, and testing a modern
small satellite.

Model Description: SSCM estimates the first-unit development and
production cost by computing a weighted average of parametric CER's
derived from actual Small-satellite cost and technical databases.
Included are production, integration, assembly, and testing. Excluded
are any payload development or production costs.

Status/Availability: SSCM is currently in a test-and-evaluation
configuration; a more elaborate program with more user features is
forthcoming. The current version is available to government agencies and
participating small-satellite contractors.

Input Variables: Mission type (communications, remote sensing, or space
experiments), Procurement environment (military, commercial or NASA),
Subsystem masses, performance measures, hardware legacy and production
schedule.

Output: Development cost range and cost sensitivities.

Data Source: Proprietary data from variety of small-satellite programs
such as REX, ALEXIS, STEP, APEX, RADCAL, and LOSAT-X.

Point of Contact: Erik Burgess, Resource and Requirements Analysis
Department, the Aerospace Corporation, (310) 336-4148.

User Community: Project Managers and Cost Analysts.

Principle Ground Rules/ SSCM estimates but costs only; payload
development/

Assumptions/Limitations production costs must be separately determined.

Software: SSCM is currently hosted in a stand-alone compiled program
that can operate on any IBM-compatible computer. It requires only a
360K-byte driver and DOS 2.0 or higher.

Equipment: See above.

CER Format: Cost as explicit functions of input variables.

Test Results/Evaluation: Validated against several small-satellite
development programs.

Title: **Aerospace Launch Vehicle Cost Model (LVCM)**

Purpose: To evaluate cost of existing, modified, new launch vehicle
designs.

Model Description: LVCM determines RDT&E cost by subsystem, average unit
operations cost by subsystem for each stage, total vehicle life-cycle
cost, fiscal year funding requirements for overall vehicle program.

Status/Availability: Internal Aerospace Corporation use only.

Input Variables: Launch site characteristics (site location, relative
number of launchers from each site); propellant type; weight, quantity
pre vehicle, design status and previous quantity produced of each of the
following subsystems: Structure, Thermal Control, Reentry Protection,
Landing System, Electrical Power, Electrical Wiring, Guidance and
Control, Data Handling, Instrumentation, Communication, Propulsion,
Engines, Reaction Control Propulsion Hardware, Interstage Adapter and
Payload Fairing.

Output: LVCM produces both numerical and graphical results. Major output
is life-cycle cost estimate for complete vehicle broken down by
principal categories of RDT&E, Investment and Operations, which are
further broken down by each stage, fairing, launch operations, flight
operations, recovery (and refurbishment) operations, spares, software,
facilities, system engineering and technical directions and government
support.

Data Source: Proprietary data from variety of DoD launch vehicle
programs.

Point of Contact: Ronald Hovden, Resource and Requirements Analysis
Department, the Aerospace Corporation, (310) 336\--5832..

User Community: Aerospace Corporation Project Managers and Cost
Analysts.

Principle Ground Rules/ Required detailed knowledge of input parameters.

Assumptions/Limitations

Software/Equipment: Written in FORTRAN 77, currently hosted on IBM
mainframe. Inputs are selected via an interactive, panel-driven
front-end. Lahey PC version is under development, but not yet fully
functional.

CER Format: Cost as explicit functions of input variables.

Test Results/Evaluation: Validated against a number of existing DoD
launch vehicles.

Title: **Unmanned Spacecraft Cost Model, Sixth Edition, Nov 1988
(USCM6**)

Purpose: To estimate total Space Segment Cost including non-recurring
and recurring cost of components as well as subsystems for earth
orbiting unmanned spacecraft.

Publisher: USAF, Space Division, Los Angeles AFB

Model Description: (see attached schematic)

By using physical descriptions of components, the model's CER's develop
component NR and REC cost. Other CER's develop support costs such as
Program Management, Systems Engineering, Data, etc.

Input Variables: component weights

number of sensors

volume, design life, BOL power

number of solar cells, battery capacity

power output, analog electronics weight

total spacecraft dry weight

Output: NR and T1 cost for components

NR and T1 cost for integration and assembly

NR and T1 cost for ferrite devices

NR AGE; launch and orbital ops support

NR and T1 for Program Management, Systems Engineering, Systems Test and
Data.

Data Source: The database consists of 9 military, 6 NASA, and 3
commercial satellite programs with start dates between 1964 and 1979

Point of Contact: Publisher

User Community: From managers interested in top-level estimates to
analysts needing detailed information on CER development.

Principle Ground Rules/ Estimates are in 1986 dollars excluding fee.
Costs cover all NR

Assumptions/Limitations and REC Spacecraft cost including launch
operations (relating to S/C only) and orbital support.

Equipment: No equipment other than a calculator is needed. Macros are
provided for uses on PCs running LOTUS 1-2-3.

CER Format: Both single and multivariate using linear and log/log
relationships. An interesting not is the introduction of the "PING"
factor with the log/log relationship.

Test Results/Evaluation: TBD

**UNMANNED SPACE VEHICLE COST MODEL 6TH EDITION**

**MODEL NONRECURRING COST FLOW**

[INPUTS]{.underline}

Weight

Sensor Types/Wt

Torque Methods/Wt /Vol

Wt/BOL Power

Wt\*BOL Pwr/# cells

Wt\*BOL Pwr

Wt\*BOL Pwr

Wt\*BOL Pwr/Batt Cap S/C \$

Pwr Output/TWTA/Subsys

Weight/Design Life Space

Weight Vehicle +

Weight/Design Life AGE \$

Weight/Comm Mission

Wt/Orbit/Subsys

Dry Wt/Stabilization Type S/C +

Comm +

I&A \$

Pwr Output/TWTA/Subsys

Weight/Design Life

Weight Comm \$

Weight/Design Life

Weight/Comm Mission

Wt/Orbit/Subsys

**UNMANNED SPACE VEHICLE COST MODEL 6TH EDITION**

**MODEL RECURRING COST FLOW**

[INPUTS]{.underline}

Space Veh Dry Wt/Mission

Weight/Manner

Sensor Types, Wt

Vol/Design Life/Wt

Wt/Manned

Area/BOL Pwr/# cells \$

Wt\*BOL Pwr

Wt\*BOL Pwr

Wt\*BOL Pwr

Weight

Weight/Sync Orbit

Weight/Output Power

Suite Weight

Weight

Total Impulse

\+ Quantity

Weight

Weight/Sync Orbit \$

Weight/Output Power

Component Power

Suite Weight

Weight

Space Veh Dry Wt \$