**Veteran Population 2007 (VetPop2007) County Estimates and Projections
Technical Notes**

Department of Veterans Affairs, Office of Policy and Planning

Office of the Actuary

This document describes how the Office of Actuary (OACT) calculates
estimates (current and past) and projections (future) of the number of
living veterans and veteran deaths by county and Veteran Integrated
Service Network (VISN) from 2000 to 2030. OACT also estimates the number
of living veterans by Congressional Districts (CDs), as defined for the
110th Congress. The variables and file structures of the outputs in the
Excel PivotTables and SAS datasets are described below.

**1. Variables**

The county-level population estimates classify veterans across the
following variables:

-   **AGE GROUP**: Less than 45, 45 to 64, 65 to 84, 85 and over.

-   **COUNTY, STATE**: County name followed by 2-letter state
    abbreviation

-   **DATE**: VetPop reports population estimates as of: 4/1/2000, and
    as of the fiscal year-end (September 30) for each year from 2000 to
    2030.

-   **FIPS Code**: State/county 5-digit FIPS codes. The first two digits
    are the state code and the last three digits are the county code.

-   **GENDER**: Male or female

-   **VISN**: Veteran Integrated Service Network (VISN) numbers, after
    January 22, 2002: 1-12, 15-23, and \"90\" for two Island Areas
    (American Samoa and Northern Mariana Islands) and Foreign countries.

Note:

1)  VetPop reports age as \"age--nearest-birthday\" (e.g., age 56
    includes ages 55.5 to 56.4). For 4/1/2000, however, VetPop uses
    \"age-last-birthday\" (e.g., age 56 includes ages 56.0 to 56.9).

2)  The term \"Veterans\" [includes]{.underline} those who served in the
    active duty military, Coast Guard, uniformed Public Health Service,
    and the uniformed National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
    reservists called to active duty, and those disabled while on active
    duty training. \"Veterans\" [excludes]{.underline} current service
    members (i.e., active duty personnel who have not yet separated),
    those dishonorably discharged, those whose active duty was for
    training only, and those who have previously separated but are on
    active duty as of the estimation date.

3)  The county structure used in VetPop2007 is the same as the county
    structure from Census 2000. Seven jurisdictions --- the District of
    Columbia, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana
    Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Foreign countries --- are not
    counties but are treated as such in our table. Therefore, we have
    3,147 \"counties\": 3,140 counties plus the 7 jurisdictions listed
    above.

4)  Two counties have been changed since the Decennial Census 2000
    (4/1/2000). One is Broomfield County in Colorado which was created
    in 2001; the other is City of Clifton Forge in Virginia which became
    an incorporated town in Alleghany County in 2001. The changes for
    these two counties were incorporated in the VetPop2007 model.

**2. File Structure and Formats**

**PivotTables:** The VetPop2007 results are saved in Excel spreadsheet
files in Excel Pivot Tables. The Pivot Tables can be modified by moving
(clicking and dragging) variables to and from three locations in the
spreadsheet. The variables appear in the column headers and the row
headers; they also appear above the table (in column A), where they are
referred to as "page pivots". Variables can be dragged to any of these
three location in order to customize the appearance of the Pivot Table
to meet your needs. (For further instructions on manipulating these
tables, click the "Tutorial" link on this website.)

**Cell Definitions:** Both State and VISN tables display county-level
veteran population data, classified by four age groups and two gender
groups over period from 2000 to 2030.

There are PivotTable buttons for all of the grouping variables, such as
AGE GROUP and GENDER. Both VISN and State pivot tables provide estimates
and projections as of

September 30 of each year, except for the census year, 2000, which
includes estimates as of 4/1/2000 and 9/30/2000.

**3. County Estimation & Projection Methodology**

> **Living Veterans = Number of Veterans using Ratio Method x Foreign
> Born Immigrant Factor x Armed Force Factor x Residual Factor x Katrina
> Factor**

**A**. **Base Estimate of Veterans by County:** Base estimates of the
county-level veteran population are based on a ratio method (RM) of
disaggregating the state-level veteran population projections down to
the county-level, using the ratio of veterans to general population
(V/P). The state-level veteran population projections are taken from the
VetPop2007 model.

The base estimate uses the ratio of veterans to overall population (V/P)
at two different points in time (4/1/200 and the estimation date) and at
two different geographical levels (the county level and the state
level). RM sets the change over time at the county level equal to the
change over time at the state level. This is shown in the following
equation (1), where 9/30/2009 is used as the estimation date.

$\frac{\frac{V_{(C,\text{2009})}}{P_{(C,\text{2009})}}}{\frac{V_{(C,\text{2000})}}{P_{(C,\text{2000})}}}\  = \ \frac{\frac{V_{(\text{St},\text{2009})}}{P_{(\text{St},\text{2009})}}}{\frac{V_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}{P_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}}$
(1)

where

*V~(C,\ 2009)~:* Veteran population in County as of 9/30/2009

*P~(C,\ 2009~)*: Population in County as of 9/30/2009 from W&P 2006\*

*V~(C,\ 2000)~:* Veteran population in County as of 4/1/2000 from Census
2000

*P~(C,\ 2000)~:* Population in County as of 4/1/2000 from W&P 2006

*V~(St,\ 2009)~:* Veteran population in State as of 9/30/2009 from
VetPop2007

*P~(St,\ 2009)~:* Population in State as of 9/30/2009 from W&P 2006

*V~(St,\ 2000)~:* Veteran population in State as of 4/1/2000 from Census
2000

*P~(St,\ 2000)~:* Population in State as of 4/1/2000 from W&P 2006

\* The projected general population at the county level and the state
level (in this case 9/30/2009) is derived from time series data
developed by Woods and Poole Economics, Inc. (W&P). These data are used
because they project state- and county-level results into the future (to
2030); whereas, census data typically provides data retrospectively.

Each term in equation (1) is known, except *V~(C,\ 2009).~* Solving for
*V~(C,\ 2009)~*~,~

$V_{(C,\text{2009})} = P_{(C,\text{2009})}\  \times \ \left\lbrack \frac{V_{(C,\text{2000})}}{P_{(C,\text{2000})}} \right\rbrack\  \times \ \left\lbrack \frac{\frac{V_{(\text{St},\text{2009})}}{P_{(\text{St},\text{2009})}}}{\frac{V_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}{P_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}} \right\rbrack$
(2)

Equation (2) gives for the projected county veteran population as of
9/30/2009. The county projection is calculated by gender and 15
five-year age groups, yielding 30 cells for each county.

**B. Foreign Born Immigrant Adjustment Factors (FBF):** Foreign-born
immigrants (FB) are much less likely to be veterans, especially recent
immigrants. Therefore, we adjusted county-level veteran population
estimates to reflect the relative prevalence of foreign born immigrants
within each county.

$$\text{FBF}_{(C,\text{2000})} = \frac{(1 - \frac{\text{FB}}{P})_{(C,\text{2000})}}{(1 - \frac{\text{FB}}{P})_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}$$

FB: Foreign Born immigrants between 1990 and 2000 at the county level
and state level\
P: General Population

The FB factor is by gender and 5-year age groups for each county.

**C. Armed Force Adjustment Factors (AFF):** Counties with higher
relative percentages of armed forces members have a higher relative
numbers of veterans. Therefore, we calculated adjustment factors to
reflect this phenomenon. The factor is greater than 1.0 for counties
with a higher percentage of armed forces and less than 1.0 for counties
with a lower percentage of armed forces.

$\text{AFF}_{(C,\text{2000})} = \text{Exp}\ \left\lbrack 1 - \frac{(1 - \frac{\text{AF}}{P})_{(C,\text{2000})}}{(1 - \frac{\text{AF}}{P})_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}} \right\rbrack = \text{Exp}\ \left\lbrack \frac{(\frac{\text{AF}}{P})_{(C,\text{2000})} - (\frac{\text{AF}}{P})_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}}{(1 - \frac{\text{AF}}{P})_{(\text{St},\text{2000})}} \right\rbrack$\
\
The AF factor is by gender for each county.

**D. Residual Factors (RF):** Other factors that are not explicitly
modeled also affect county-level veteran populations. The residual
factor accounts for these unknown characteristics and ensures that the
county-level results produce the desired results. That is, the RF
ensures that VetPop projections align with past estimates of the veteran
population.

Actual Veterans\
RF =
\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\--\
Estimated value from RM x FBF x AFF\
\
The RF is by gender and 2 age groups (under 65, 65 and over) for each
county.

See the county documentation for more detailed methodology.

**E. Katrina and Rita Adjustment Factors:** A comparison of the W&P data
(used to estimate county-level distributions) to census data for 2006
revealed some discrepancies in the 117 counties designated by the
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) as eligible for assistance
due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Upon review, we concluded that the
census data more accurately reflected hurricane-related migration than
did the W&P data. As a result, we adjusted estimates for 2006 in some of
the FEMA-designated counties to by using census data rather than W&P to
calculate the results. These differences between the initial estimates
(based on W&P) and the adjusted estimates (based on census data) were
phased out from 2007 to 2011; in 2012 the estimates revert to those made
using the W&P data.

**4. 110th Congressional District**

The projections of the veteran population by Congressional District
(CDs) for the 110th Congress are used for the Geographical Distribution
of the VA Expenditures (GDX). The GDX shows veteran population and VA
expenditure data for each state, county, and Congressional District.\
\
The Census 110th Congressional District Summary File lists veteran
population by CD (by gender and two age groups) for all counties. Most
of the counties belong to one CD, but 446 counties contain more than one
CD. For example, there are 18 CDs in Los Angeles County and 11 CDs in
Cook County, Illinois\
\
The estimates of the veteran population for the 110th CD are done by
gender and age groups (17 to 64, 65 and over) for fiscal year-end dates
between 4/1/2000 to 9/30/2030. The assumption is that county boundaries
and CD boundaries will remain the same from 2000 to 2030. The 446
counties that contain more than one CD have to be proportionally
redistributed in 2000 to 2030, based on 2000 Census data by gender and
age group. More detailed information can be found in the county
technical documentation.

**5. County-level Veteran Methodology for Determining the Number of
Deaths by County**

The county-level veteran deaths are derived from the state-level veteran
deaths, taken from VetPop2007. The county-level deaths for a state are
calculated by applying state-level annual mortality rates to the number
of estimated living veterans in that county by gender and (five-year)
age group.

$$q_{\text{St}}\  = \ \frac{d_{\text{St}}}{l_{\text{St}}}$$

$d_{\text{St}}$= Death (state-level) occurred during FY\
$l_{\text{St}}$= Living veterans (state-level) at the beginning of FY\
\
\
Therefore, the county-level equation for deaths is:\
$d_{\text{Co}}\  = \ l_{\text{Co}}\  \times \ q_{\text{St}}$

**6. A Single SAS File with All County-Level Veteran Population Data**

The Excel Pivot Tables that contain the VetPop results can be expanded
and collapsed as needed. (See "File Structures and Formats," above.)
However, Excel can not accommodate the expansion of all variables
contained the county-level data. Therefore, the complete county-level
data are saved in another format. A PC/SAS file (called
VP2007_County_Lives.sas7bdat), contains each record accessible within
the Pivot Table. Although the SAS and Excel files are different in terms
of format, they are quantitatively equivalent. The variables included on
the county VetPop **SAS file** (VP2007_County_Lives.sas7bdat) are shown
below. Although some variable names are different from those shown on
Excel PivotTables, the correspondence should be clear from the variable
definitions provided:

**FIPS**: State/county 5-digit FIPS codes. ssccc format where ss = state
and ccc = county code

**VISN:** Veteran Integrated Service Network (VISN) numbers, after
January 23, 2002: 1-12, 15-23, and "90" for two Island Areas (American
Samoa and Northern Mariana Islands) and Foreign countries.

**Sector:** Sector Areas for Capital Asset Realignment for Enhanced
Services (CARES) program

**County_Name:** county name (in alpha character format) followed by
two-letter state abbreviation

**State:** State names

**Gender:** Male or female

**Age_Group:** Age in 5-year age groups (less than 20, 20 to 24, 25 to
29,..., 80 to 84, 85 and over); there are fifteen age groups in total.

**Age_Group_4\_:** Age broken into four age groups (17 to 44, 45 to 64,
65t o 84, 85 and over).

**Veterans:** County-level, veteran population

**Date:** Indicates the 32 time points of the estimates---4/1/2000 and
each fiscal year-end (September 30) from 2000 to 2030

**[Note]{.underline}:**

1.  More detailed information on ratio method, foreign-born immigrant
    factors, Armed Force factors, residual factors, and descriptions of
    the VetPop2007 model can be found in county technical documentation.

2.  If you need data by both STATE and VISN, follow the instructions
    below or call Mike Wells.

    a.  Select PivotTable Wizard by right clicking the mouse in any
        PivotTable area

    b.  Select Layout

    c.  Drag the VISN or STATE box from the right side to the "page
        pivots" (northwest corner of a table)

3.  For questions, call Mike Wells at (202) 461-5829 or send an e-mail
    to <VetPop@va.gov>.