OCE Release #2-2004

Raymond L. Bridge 202-720-5447

rbridge@oce.usda.gov

# CHANGES IN THE MAY 12 SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES REPORT

Washington, May 6, 2004---The May 12 World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will provide USDA's first assessment of
supply, demand and prices for the new marketing year. The WASDE report
is issued by the World Agricultural Outlook Board of USDA's Office of
the Chief Economist.

The report will present projections for 2004/05 for grains, oilseeds,
cotton, sugar and milk, as well as calendar-year 2005 projections for
U.S. meat and poultry products.

The order of tables and table page numbers will be the same as in the
April 2004 issue. Table formats in the May 12 report will match the May
2003 issue, except for the sample tables at the end of this release.

The May 12 report will incorporate historical revisions of China's corn
consumption and stocks. An historical comparison of old and new
estimates will be included in the May 12 report and posted on the WASDE
home page, http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm.

The May 12 issue will incorporate other reporting changes as well.
Deliveries in the U.S. sugar balance sheet will replace sales to
indicate physical movement to sugar users. Stocks will include sales
that have not been delivered.

The U.S. wheat balance sheet will show outstanding loans as a portion of
ending stocks. The U.S. corn balance sheet will show ethanol used for
fuel as a portion of "feed, seed, and industrial" use.

Per-capita consumption of U.S. red meats, poultry and eggs will reflect
revised population estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Country-level supply and demand projections for 2004/05 will commence
with the May issue for world wheat, coarse grains and rice, and with the
June issue for world oilseeds and cotton. Previously, reporting of
country-level projections for world rice, oilseeds and cotton began with
the July issue.

Starting on May 12, data for the European Union in world supply and use
tables will be reported for the EU-25 instead of the EU-15. The Eastern
Europe category will be dropped from the world wheat balance sheet. In
the world coarse grains balance sheet, Eastern Europe will be dropped
and Other Europe added. These and other changes in countries and
regional designations are shown in sample tables below.

After May 12, the Foreign Agricultural Service will release revised
historical grains and oilseeds estimates for the EU-25 for 1999/2000
forward on "Production, Supply, and Demand Online,"
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd.

The WASDE report is available from the WASDE home page. To subscribe to
the report in print, call (800) 999-6779 or visit http://www.ntis.gov.

For more information call (202) 720-5447.

Please turn pageNumber range CHAPTER

### WASDE-410-9

#  U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/

**===============================================================================**

**: : : 2004/05 Projections**

**Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :==============================**

**: : Est. : May**

**===============================================================================**

**Area : Million acres**

**Planted : \***

**Harvested : \***

**Yield per harvested : Bushels**

**acre : \***

**: Million bushels**

**Beginning stocks :**

**Production :**

**Imports :**

**Supply, total :**

**Food :**

**Seed :**

**Feed and residual :**

**Domestic, total :**

**Exports :**

**Use, total :**

**Ending stocks :**

**CCC inventory :**

**Free stocks :**

**Outstanding loans :**

**Avg. farm price (\$/bu) 2/ :**

**===============================================================================**

**U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use**

**===============================================================================**

**Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :**

**June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total**

**===============================================================================**

**2003/04 (estimated) : Million bushels**

**Beginning stocks :**

**Production :**

**Supply, total 3/ :**

**Domestic use :**

**Exports :**

**Use, total :**

**Ending stocks May :**

**Apr :**

**===============================================================================**

**Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
June 1.**

**2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/
Includes**

**imports. \* Planted acres reported in March 31, 2004, Prospective
Plantings.**

**Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected
using**

**\[See May 12 WASDE for method\]. Winter wheat harvested acreage and
yield reported in May 12 Crop Production.**

**\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\***

**\* \***

**\* \***

**\* Wheat-by-class projections for 2004/05 will first be published \***

**\* in the July 12 WASDE. \***

**\* \***

**\* \***

**\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\***

**WASDE-410-10**

**U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/**

**===============================================================================**

**: : : 2004/05 Projections**

**Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :==============================**

**: : Est. : May**

**===============================================================================**

**FEED GRAINS :**

**Area : Million acres**

**Planted : \***

**Harvested : \***

**Yield per harvested : Metric tons**

**acre : \***

**: Million metric tons**

**Beginning stocks :**

**Production :**

**Imports :**

**Supply, total :**

**Feed and residual :**

**Food, seed & industrial :**

**Domestic, total :**

**Exports :**

**Use, total :**

**Ending stocks, total :**

**CCC inventory :**

**Free stocks :**

**Outstanding loans :**

**:**

**CORN :**

**Area : Million acres**

**Planted :**

**Harvested :**

**Yield per harvested : Bushels**

**acre :**

**: Million bushels**

**Beginning stocks :**

**Production :**

**Imports :**

**Supply, total :**

**Feed and residual :**

**Food, seed & industrial :**

**Ethanol for fuel 2/ :**

**Domestic, total :**

**Exports :**

**Use, total :**

**Ending stocks, total :**

**CCC inventory :**

**Free stocks :**

**Outstanding loans :**

**Avg. farm price (\$/bu) 3/ :**

**===============================================================================**

**Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year
beginning**

**September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a
further**

**breakout of corn food and industrial uses see the ERS Feed Outlook
table 5,**

**or ERS feed grain data at http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/.
Under**

**\"Custom\" select data type: supply and use. 3/ Marketing-year
weighted average**

**price received by farmers. \* The planted acres estimate reported in
March 31,**

**2004, Prospective Plantings. For corn: \[See May 12 WASDE for methods
used to project acreage and yield\].**

**WASDE-410-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use**

**THE FORMAT WILL BE THE SAME AS MAY 2003**

Number range CHAPTER**WASDE-410-14**

### U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/

**======================================================================**

**: : 2003/04 : 2004/05**

**Item : 2002/03 :====================:============**

**: : April\* May : Projection**

**======================================================================**

**: 1,000 short tons, raw value**

**:**

**Beginning stocks :**

**Production 2/ :**

**Beet sugar :**

**Cane sugar 3/ :**

**Imports :**

**TRQ 4/ :**

**Other program 5/ :**

**Other 6/ :**

**Supply, total :**

**:**

**Exports :**

**Deliveries :**

**Food :**

**Other 7/ :**

**Miscellaneous 8/ :**

**Use, total :**

**Ending stocks :**

**:**

**Stocks-to-use ratio :**

**======================================================================**

**\* Note: April 2003/04 supply and use estimates are from the April
2004**

**WASDE and are not comparable to this month's 2002/03, May 2003/04,
and**

**projected 2004/05.**

**1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical**

**data are from FSA sweetener market data except imports, which are
from**

**the U.S. and Bureau of Census. 2/ Production projections for 2004/05**

**are based on \[see May 12 report\]. 3/ Production by State for
2003/04**

**(projected 2004/05): FL ( ) ; HI ( ); LA ( );**

**TX ( ); PR ( ). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate**

**quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills**

**assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For**

**2004/05, available TRQs assume \[see May 12 WASDE report\]. 5/
Includes**

**sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/
Includes**

**high-tier and other. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for**

**reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 8/ Residual statistical
discrepancies.**

Number range CHAPTER**WASDE-410-16**

**World Wheat Supply and Use 1/**

**(Million Metric Tons)**

**===============================================================================**

**: Supply : Use :**

**:=========================:=======================:Ending**

**Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks**

**:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :**

**: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:**

**===============================================================================**

**:**

**: 2002/03**

**:**

**World 3/ :**

**United States :**

**Total foreign :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**Argentina :**

**Australia :**

**Canada :**

**EU-25 :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**Brazil :**

**China :**

**Select. Mideast 6/ :**

**N. Africa 7/ :**

**Pakistan :**

**Southeast Asia 8/ :**

**Selected other :**

**India :**

**FSU-12 :**

**Russia :**

**Kazakhstan :**

**Ukraine :**

**:**

**: 2003/04 (Estimated)**

**:**

**World 3/ :**

**United States :**

**Total foreign :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**Argentina :**

**Australia :**

**Canada :**

**EU-25 :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**Brazil :**

**China :**

**Select. Mideast 6/ :**

**N. Africa 7/ :**

**Pakistan :**

**Southeast Asia 8/ :**

**Selected other :**

**India :**

**FSU-12 :**

**Russia :**

**Kazakhstan :**

**Ukraine :**

**===============================================================================**

**1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world
use**

**adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/
World**

**imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing
years,**

**grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/
Argentina,**

**Australia, Canada, and the EU-25 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil,
China,**

**Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and
Southeast Asia.**

**6/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen,
United**

**Arab Emirates, and Oman. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and
Tunisia. 8/**

**Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.**

**WASDE-410-17**

**World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont\'d.)**

**(Million Metric Tons)**

**===============================================================================**

**: Supply : Use :**

**:=========================:=======================:Ending**

**Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks**

**:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :**

**: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:**

**===============================================================================**

**:**

**: 2004/05 (Projected)**

**World 3/ :**

**May :**

**United States :**

**May :**

**Total foreign :**

**May :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**May :**

**Argentina May :**

**Australia May :**

**Canada May :**

**EU-25 May :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**May :**

**Brazil May :**

**China May :**

**Sel. Mideast 6/May :**

**N. Africa 7/ May :**

**Pakistan May :**

**SE Asia 8/ May :**

**Selected other :**

**India May :**

**FSU-12 May :**

**Russia May :**

**Kazakhstan May :**

**Ukraine May :**

**===============================================================================**

**1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world
use**

**adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/
World**

**imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing
years,**

**grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/
Argentina,**

**Australia, Canada, and the EU-25 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil,
China,**

**Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and
Southeast Asia.**

**6/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen,
United**

**Arab Emirates, and Oman. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and
Tunisia. 8/**

**Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.**

**WASDE-410-18**

**World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/**

**(Million Metric Tons)**

**===============================================================================**

**: Supply : Use :**

**:=========================:=======================:Ending**

**Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks**

**:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :**

**: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:**

**===============================================================================**

**:**

**: 2002/03**

**:**

**World 3/ :**

**United States :**

**Total foreign :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**Argentina :**

**Australia :**

**Canada :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**EU-25 :**

**Japan :**

**Mexico :**

**N. Afr & Mideast 6/:**

**Southeast Asia 7/ :**

**South Korea :**

**Selected other :**

**China :**

**Other Europe :**

**FSU-12 :**

**Russia :**

**Ukraine :**

**:**

**: 2003/04 (Estimated)**

**:**

**World 3/ :**

**United States :**

**Total foreign :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**Argentina :**

**Australia :**

**Canada :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**EU-25 :**

**Japan :**

**Mexico :**

**N. Afr & Mideast 6/:**

**Southeast Asia 7/ :**

**South Korea :**

**Selected other :**

**China :**

**Other Europe :**

**FSU-12 :**

**Russia :**

**Ukraine :**

**===============================================================================**

**1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted**

**to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and**

**exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain
in**

**transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/
Argentina,**

**Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25 (excludes
intra-trade),**

**Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea,
Southeast**

**Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya,
Morocco,**

**Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines,**

**Thailand, and Vietnam.**

Number range CHAPTER

**WASDE-410-19**

**World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont\'d.)**

**(Million Metric Tons)**

**===============================================================================**

**: Supply : Use :**

**:=========================:=======================:Ending**

**Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks**

**:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :**

**: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:**

**===============================================================================**

**:**

**: 2004/05 (Projected)**

**World 3/ :**

**May :**

**United States :**

**May :**

**Total foreign :**

**May :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**May :**

**Argentina May :**

**Australia May :**

**Canada May :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**May :**

**EU-25 May :**

**Japan May :**

**Mexico May :**

**N Afr/M.East 6/May :**

**S.-east Asia 7/May :**

**South Korea May :**

**Selected other :**

**China May :**

**Other Europe May :**

**FSU-12 May :**

**Russia May :**

**Ukraine May :**

**===============================================================================**

**1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted**

**to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and**

**exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain
in**

**transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/
Argentina,**

**Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25 (excludes
intra-trade),**

**Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea,
Southeast**

**Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya,
Morocco,**

**Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines,**

**Thailand, and Vietnam.**

Number range CHAPTER **WASDE-410-20**

**World Corn Supply and Use 1/**

**(Million Metric Tons)**

**===============================================================================**

**: Supply : Use :**

**:=========================:=======================:Ending**

**Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks**

**:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :**

**: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:**

**===============================================================================**

**:**

**: 2002/03**

**:**

**World 3/ :**

**United States :**

**Total foreign :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**Argentina :**

**South Africa :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**Egypt :**

**EU-25 :**

**Japan :**

**Mexico :**

**Southeast Asia 6/ :**

**South Korea :**

**Selected other :**

**Brazil :**

**Canada :**

**China :**

**Other Europe :**

**FSU-12 :**

**Russia :**

**:**

**: 2003/04 (Estimated)**

**:**

**World 3/ :**

**United States :**

**Total foreign :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**Argentina :**

**South Africa :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**Egypt :**

**EU-25 :**

**Japan :**

**Mexico :**

**Southeast Asia 6/ :**

**South Korea :**

**Selected other :**

**Brazil :**

**Canada :**

**China :**

**Other Europe :**

**FSU-12 :**

**Russia :**

**===============================================================================**

**1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted**

**to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and**

**exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain
in**

**transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina
and South**

**Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan,
South**

**Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines,**

**Thailand, and Vietnam.**

**WASDE-410-21**

**World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont\'d.)**

**(Million Metric Tons)**

**===============================================================================**

**: Supply : Use :**

**:=========================:=======================:Ending**

**Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks**

**:Beginning:Produc-: :===============: :**

**: stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports:**

**===============================================================================**

**:**

**: 2004/05 (Projected)**

**World 3/ :**

**May :**

**United States :**

**May :**

**Total foreign :**

**May :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**May :**

**Argentina May :**

**South Africa May :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**May :**

**Egypt May :**

**EU-25 May :**

**Japan May :**

**Mexico May :**

**S.-east Asia 6/May :**

**South Korea May :**

**Selected other :**

**Brazil May :**

**Canada May :**

**China May :**

**Other Europe May :**

**FSU-12 May :**

**Russia May :**

**===============================================================================**

**1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted**

**to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and**

**exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain
in**

**transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina
and South**

**Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan,
South**

**Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines,**

**Thailand, and Vietnam.**

**WASDE-410-22**

**World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/**

**(Million Metric Tons)**

**===============================================================================**

**: Supply : Use :**

**:=========================:===================: Ending**

**Region : : : : : : stocks**

**:Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: :**

**: stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports :**

**===============================================================================**

**:**

**: 2002/03**

**World 3/ :**

**United States :**

**Total foreign :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**India :**

**Pakistan :**

**Thailand :**

**Vietnam :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**Brazil :**

**EU-25 :**

**Indonesia :**

**Nigeria :**

**Philippines :**

**Sel. Mideast 6/ :**

**Selected other :**

**Burma :**

**C. Amer & Carib 7/ :**

**China :**

**Egypt :**

**Japan :**

**Mexico :**

**South Korea :**

**:**

**: 2003/04 (Estimated)**

**World 3/ :**

**United States :**

**Total foreign :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**India :**

**Pakistan :**

**Thailand :**

**Vietnam :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**Brazil :**

**EU-25 :**

**Indonesia :**

**Nigeria :**

**Philippines :**

**Sel. Mideast 6/ :**

**Selected other :**

**Burma :**

**C. Amer & Carib 7/ :**

**China :**

**Egypt :**

**Japan :**

**Mexico :**

**South Korea :**

**===============================================================================**

**1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world
use**

**adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/
World**

**imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some
countries.**

**4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong
Kong,**

**Iran, Iraq, Cote d\'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the
EU-25**

**(excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq,
and Saudi**

**Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries.**

### WASDE-410-23

**World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont\'d.)**

**(Million Metric Tons)**

**===============================================================================**

**: Supply : Use :**

**:=========================:===================: Ending**

**Region : : : : : : stocks**

**:Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: :**

**: stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports :**

**===============================================================================**

**:**

**: 2004/05 (Projected)**

**World 3/ :**

**May :**

**United States :**

**May :**

**Total foreign :**

**May :**

**Major exporters 4/ :**

**May :**

**India May :**

**Pakistan May :**

**Thailand May :**

**Vietnam May :**

**Major importers 5/ :**

**May :**

**Brazil May :**

**EU-25 May :**

**Indonesia May :**

**Nigeria May :**

**Philippines May :**

**Sel. Mideast 6/May :**

**Selected other :**

**Burma May :**

**C. Am & Car. 7/May :**

**China May :**

**Egypt May :**

**Japan May :**

**Mexico May :**

**South Korea May :**

**===============================================================================**

**1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world
use**

**adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/
World**

**imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some
countries.**

**4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong
Kong,**

**Iran, Iraq, Cote d\'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the
EU-25**

**(excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq,
and Saudi**

**Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries.**

\#