**Defining U.S. National Security for the Next Generation**

**John C. Gannon**

**January 8, 2001**

#### 

In the post-Cold War world, the United States is challenged by a broader
definition of U.S. national security that must take into account a wide
range of factors that will contribute to stability or stimulate conflict
in the years ahead. For these reasons, it makes sense today, more than
ever, for a national security analyst to be engaged with USAID officers
in a conference on global conflict prevention. We need to understand how
such factors as demographics, natural resources, the environment,
economic growth, globalization, and the quality of governance will
challenge governments and the international community and, in some
cases, sow the seeds of conflict threatening to U.S. interests.

Global change in the decades ahead will expand the U.S. national
security intelligence agenda in both the numbers and complexity of
issues we cover. In 15 years, CIA will still be focused on the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, narcotics, and
organized crime. But newer issues, such as information operations and
threats to our space systems, will command a growing amount of our time.
And we will be engaged, even more than today, in covering regional
conflicts and developments associated with them: refugee crises,
peacekeeping, humanitarian emergencies, environmental problems, global
health issues, technological developments, and key economic trends. The
fast-moving, broadly distributed threat environment that you hear so
much about is here to stay.

The findings of an unclassified study recently published by the National
Intelligence Council (NIC) assesses the impact of seven drivers in
shaping the world of 2015. The NIC is a group of senior experts who
advise the Director of Central Intelligence. The study, *Global Trends
2015*[,]{.underline} drew on considerable outside expertise. The drivers
highlighted in the study are: demographics, including migration and
health; natural resources and environment; science and technology; the
global economy; national and international governance; and future
conflict.

The world in 2015 will be populated by some 7.2 billion people, up from
6.1 billion in the year 2000. The rate of world population growth,
however, will have diminished from 1.7 percent annually in 1985, to 1.3
percent today, to approximately 1 percent in 2015.

More than 95 percent of the increase in world population will be found
in developing countries, nearly all in rapidly expanding urban areas.

-   India's population will grow from 900 million to more than 1.2
    billion by 2015; Pakistan's probably will swell from 140 million now
    to about 195 million.

-   Some countries in Africa with high rates of AIDS will experience
    reduced population growth or even declining populations despite
    relatively high birthrates. In South Africa, for example, the
    population is projected to drop from 43.4 million in 2000 to 38.7
    million in 2015.

Russia and many post-Communist countries of Eastern Europe will have
declining populations.

## Movement of People

By 2015 more than half of the world's population will be urban. The
number of people living in mega-cities---those containing more than 10
million inhabitants---will double to more than 400 million.

-   Urbanization will provide many countries the opportunity to tap the
    information revolution and other technological advances.

-   The explosive growth of cities in developing countries will test the
    capacity of governments to stimulate the investment required to
    generate jobs and to provide the services, infrastructure, and
    social supports necessary to sustain livable and stable
    environments.

## Health

Disparities in health status between developed and developing
countries---particularly the least developed countries---will persist
and widen. In developed countries, major inroads against a variety of
maladies will be achieved by 2015 as a result of generous health
spending and major medical advances. The revolution in biotechnology
holds the promise of even more dramatic improvements in health status.
Noninfectious diseases will pose greater challenges to health in
developed countries than will infectious diseases. Progress against
infectious diseases, nevertheless, will encounter some setbacks as a
result of growing microbial resistance to antibiotics and the
accelerating pace of international movement of people and products that
facilitate the spread of infectious diseases.

Developing countries, by contrast, are likely to experience a surge in
both infectious and noninfectious diseases and in general will have
inadequate health care capacities and spending.

-   Tuberculosis, malaria, hepatitis, and particularly AIDS will
    continue to increase rapidly. AIDS and TB together are likely to
    account for the majority of deaths in most developing countries.

-   AIDS will be a major problem not only in Africa but also in India,
    Southeast Asia, several countries formerly part of the Soviet Union,
    and possibly China.

-   AIDS will reduce economic growth by up to 1 percent of GDP per year
    and consume more than 50 percent of health budgets in the
    hardest-hit countries.

-   AIDS and such associated diseases as TB will have a destructive
    impact on families and society. In some African countries, average
    lifespans will be reduced by as much as 30 to 40 years, generating
    more than 40 million orphans and contributing to poverty, crime, and
    instability.

-   AIDS, other diseases, and health problems will hurt prospects for
    transition to democratic regimes as they undermine civil society,
    hamper the evolution of sound political and economic institutions,
    and intensify the struggle for power and resources.

## Natural Resources and Environment

**[Food]{.underline}**

Driven by advances in agricultural technologies, world food grain
production and stocks in 2015 will be adequate to meet the needs of a
growing world population. Despite the overall adequacy of food, problems
of distribution and availability will remain.

-   The number of chronically malnourished people in conflict-ridden
    Sub-Saharan Africa will increase by more than 20 percent over the
    next 15 years.

-   Donors will become more reluctant to provide relief when they
    believe their aid will become embroiled in military conflict.

**[Water]{.underline}**

By 2015 nearly half the world's population---more than 3 billion
people---will live in countries that are "water-stressed"---having less
than 1,700 cubic meters of water per capita per year---mostly in Africa,
the Middle East, South Asia, and northern China.

-   Turkey is building new dams and irrigation projects on the Tigris
    and Euphrates Rivers, which will affect water flows into Syria and
    Iraq---two countries that will experience considerable population
    growth.

-   Egypt is proceeding with a major diversion of water from the Nile,
    which flows from Ethiopia and Sudan, both of which will want to draw
    more water from the Nile for their own development by 2015.
    Water-sharing arrangements are likely to become more contentious.

Water shortages occurring in combination with other sources of
tension---such as in the Middle East---will be the most worrisome.

-   Per capita decline in water availability over the next 25 years
    looks something like this: Israel, 33 percent; Jordan, 75 percent;
    Iran, 50 percent; Saudi Arabia, 67 percent; Egypt, 40 percent;
    Ethiopia/Rwanda, 60 percent; and South Africa, 55 percent.

**[Energy]{.underline}**

The global economy will continue to become more energy efficient through
2015.

Asia will drive the expansion in energy demand, replacing North America
as the leading energy consumption region and accounting for more than
half of the world's total increase in demand.

-   China, and to a lesser extent India, will see especially dramatic
    increases in energy consumption.

-   By 2015, only one-tenth of Persian Gulf oil will be directed to
    Western markets; three-quarters will go to Asia.

Meeting the increase in demand for energy will pose neither a major
supply challenge nor lead to substantial price increases in real terms.
Estimates of the world's total endowment of oil have steadily increased
as technological progress in extracting oil from remote sources has
enabled new discoveries and more efficient production. Recent estimates
indicate that 80 percent of the world's available oil still remains in
the ground, as does 95 percent of the world's natural gas.

### 

**[Environment]{.underline}**

Contemporary environmental problems will persist and in many instances
grow over the next 15 years. With increasingly intensive land use,
significant degradation of arable land will continue as will the loss of
tropical forests. Given the promising global economic outlook,
greenhouse gas emissions will increase substantially. The depletion of
tropical forests and other species-rich habitats, such as wetlands and
coral reefs, will exacerbate the historically large losses of biological
species now occurring.

-   Environmental issues will become mainstream issues in several
    countries, particularly in the developed world. The consensus on the
    need to deal with environmental issues will strengthen; however,
    progress in dealing with them will be uneven.

## 

## Science and Technology

## 

## The continuing diffusion of information technology and new applications in the biotechnology field will be of particular global significance. 

### 

**[Information Technology (IT)]{.underline}**

Over the next 15 years, a wide range of developments will lead to many
new IT-enabled devices and services. Rapid diffusion is likely because
equipment costs will decrease at the same time that demand is
increasing. Local-to-global net access holds the prospect of universal
wireless connectivity via hand-held devices and large numbers of
low-cost, low-altitude satellites. Satellite systems and services will
develop in ways that increase performance and reduce costs.

### 

**[Biotechnology]{.underline}**

By 2015, the biotechnology revolution will be in full swing with major
achievements in combating disease, increasing food production, reducing
pollution, and enhancing the quality of life. Many of these
developments, especially in the medical field, will remain costly
through 2015 and will be available mainly in the West and to wealthy
segments of other societies. Some biotechnologies will continue to be
controversial for moral and religious reasons. Among the most
significant developments by 2015 are:

-   Genomic profiling---by decoding the genetic basis for
    pathology---will enable the medical community to move beyond the
    description of diseases to more effective mechanisms for diagnosis
    and treatment.

-   Biomedical engineering, exploiting advances in biotechnology and
    "smart" materials, will produce new surgical procedures and systems,
    including better organic and artificial replacement parts for human
    beings, and the use of unspecialized human cells (stem cells) to
    augment or replace brain or body functions and structures. It also
    will spur development of sensor and neural prosthetics such as
    retinal implants for the eye, cochlear implants for the ear, or
    bypasses of spinal and other nerve damage.

-   Therapy and drug developments will cure some enduring diseases and
    counter trends in antibiotic resistance. Deeper understanding of how
    particular diseases affect people with specific genetic
    characteristics will facilitate the development and prescription of
    custom drugs.

-   Genetic modification---despite continuing technological and cultural
    barriers---will improve the engineering of organisms to increase
    food production and quality, broaden the scale of bio-manufacturing,
    and provide cures for certain genetic diseases. Cloning will be used
    for such applications as livestock production. Despite cultural and
    political concerns, the use of genetically modified crops has great
    potential to dramatically improve the nutrition and health of many
    of the world's poorest people.

### 

**[Other Technologies]{.underline}**

Breakthroughs in materials technology will generate widely available
products that are smart, multifunctional, environmentally compatible,
more survivable, and customizable. These products not only will
contribute to the growing information and biotechnology revolutions but
also will benefit manufacturing, logistics, and personal lifestyles.
Materials with active capabilities will be used to combine sensing and
actuation in response to environmental conditions.

Discoveries in nanotechnology will lead to unprecedented understanding
and control over the fundamental building blocks of all physical things.
Developments in this emerging field are likely to change the way almost
everything---from vaccines to computers to automobile tires to objects
not yet imagined---is designed and made. Self-assembled nanomaterials,
such as semiconductor "quantum dots," could by 2015 revolutionize
chemical labeling and enable rapid processing for drug discovery, blood
content analysis, genetic analysis, and other biological applications.

### 

**The Global Economy**

The global economy is well positioned to achieve a sustained period of
dynamism through 2015. Global economic growth will return to the high
levels reached in the 1960s and early 1970s, the final years of the
post-World War II "long boom." Dynamism will be strongest among
so-called "emerging markets", especially in the two Asian giants, China
and India, but will be broadly based worldwide, including in both
industrialized and many developing countries. The rising tide of the
global economy will create many economic winners, but it will not lift
all boats. The information revolution will make the persistence of
poverty more visible, and regional differences will remain large.

The countries and regions most at risk of falling behind economically
are those with endemic internal and/or regional conflicts and those that
fail to diversify their economies. The economies of most states in
Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and some in Latin America will
continue to suffer. A large segment of the Eurasian landmass extending
from Central Asia through the Caucasus to parts of southeastern Europe
faces dim economic prospects. Within countries, the gap in the standard
of living also will increase. Even in rapidly growing countries, large
regions will be left behind.

**National and International Governance**

The state will remain the single most important organizing unit of
political, economic, and security affairs through 2015 but will confront
fundamental tests of effective governance. The first will be to benefit
from, while coping with, several facets of globalization. The second
will be to deal with increasingly vocal and organized publics.

-   The elements of globalization---greater and freer flow of
    information, capital, goods, services, people, and the diffusion of
    power to nonstate actors of all kinds---will challenge the authority
    of virtually all governments. At the same time, globalization will
    create demands for increased international cooperation on
    transnational issues.

## Nonstate Actors

States will deal increasingly with private-sector organizations---both
for-profit and nonprofit. These nonstate actors increasingly will gain
resources and power over the next 15 years as a result of the ongoing
liberalization of global finance and trade, as well as the opportunities
afforded by information technology.

Over the next 15 years, transnational criminal organizations will become
increasingly adept at exploiting the global diffusion of sophisticated
information, financial, and transportation networks.

-   Criminal organizations and networks based in North America, Western
    Europe, China, Colombia, Israel, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, and Russia
    will expand the scale and scope of their activities. They will form
    loose alliances with one another, with smaller criminal
    entrepreneurs, and with insurgent movements for specific operations.
    They will corrupt leaders of unstable, economically fragile or
    failing states, insinuate themselves into troubled banks and
    businesses, and cooperate with insurgent political movements to
    control substantial geographic areas. Their income will come from
    narcotics trafficking; alien smuggling; trafficking in women and
    children; smuggling toxic materials, hazardous wastes, illicit arms,
    military technologies, and other contra-band; financial fraud; and
    racketeering.

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-   Repression by the state. States with slow economic growth, and/or
    where executive power is concentrated in an exclusionary political
    elite and the rule of law and civil or minority rights are weak,
    will be inclined to discriminate against communal minorities. Such
    conditions will foment ethnic tensions in Sub-Saharan Africa,
    Central and South Asia, and parts of the Middle East, often in
    rapidly growing urban areas. Certain powerful states---such as
    Russia, China, Brazil and India---also are likely to repress
    politicized communal minorities.

Let me say a few words about the nature of future conflict.

The United States will maintain a strong technological edge in IT-driven
"battlefield awareness" and in precision-guided weaponry in 2015. The
United States will face three types of threats from adversaries:

-   Asymmetric threats in which state and nonstate adversaries avoid
    direct engagements with the U.S. military but devise strategies,
    tactics, and weapons---some improved by "sidewise" technology---to
    minimize U.S. strengths and exploit perceived weaknesses;

-   Strategic WMD threats, including nuclear missile threats, in which
    (barring significant political or economic changes), Russia, China,
    most likely North Korea, probably Iran, and possibly Iraq have the
    capability to strike the United States and the potential for
    unconventional delivery of WMD by both states or nonstate actors
    also will grow.

-   Regional military threats in which a few countries maintain large
    military forces with a mix of Cold War and post-Cold War concepts
    and technologies.

The risk of war among developed countries will be low. The international
community will continue, however, to face conflicts around the world,
ranging from relatively frequent small-scale internal upheavals to less
frequent regional inter-state wars. The potential for inter-state
conflict will arise from rivalries in Asia, ranging from India-Pakistan
to China-Taiwan, as well as among the antagonists in the Middle East.
Their potential lethality will grow, driven by the availability of WMD,
longer-range missile delivery systems and other technologies.

Internal conflicts stemming from religious, ethnic, economic or
political disputes will remain at current levels or even increase in
number. The United Nations and regional organizations will be called
upon to manage such conflicts because major states---stressed by
domestic concerns, perceived risk of failure, lack of political will, or
tight resources---will minimize their direct involvement.

### 

**Internal Conflicts**

### 

Many internal conflicts, particularly those arising from communal
disputes, will continue to be vicious, long-lasting and difficult to
terminate---leaving bitter legacies in their wake.

-   They frequently will spawn internal displacements, refugee flows,
    humanitarian emergencies, and other regionally destabilizing
    dislocations.

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-   If left to fester, internal conflicts will trigger spillover into
    inter-state conflicts as neighboring states move to exploit
    opportunities for gain or to limit the possibilities of damage to
    their national interests.

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-   Weak states will spawn recurrent internal conflicts, threatening the
    stability of a globalizing international system.

Internal conflicts stemming from state repression, religious and ethnic
grievances, increasing migration pressures, and/or indigenous protest
movements will occur most frequently in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Caucasus
and Central Asia, and parts of south and southeast Asia, Central America
and the Andean region.

The United Nations and several regional organizations will continue to
be called upon to manage some internal conflicts because major
states---stressed by domestic concerns, perceived risk of failure, lack
of political will, or tight resources---will wish to minimize their
direct involvement.

Meanwhile, states with poor governance; ethnic, cultural, or religious
tensions; weak economies; and porous borders will be prime breeding
grounds for terrorism. In such states, domestic groups will challenge
the entrenched government, and transnational networks seeking
safehavens.

# 

So, what are the implications for the United States and the world? An
integrated trend analysis suggests at least four related conclusions:

-   First, national policies will matter. To prosper in the global
    economy of 2015, governments will have to invest more in technology,
    in public education, and in broader participation in government to
    include increasingly influential non-state actors. The extent to
    which governments around the world are doing these things today
    gives some indication of where they will be in 2015.

-   Second, we will have to watch primitive as well as precision-guided
    weapons. The United States and other developed countries will be
    challenged in 2015 to lead the fast-paced technological revolution
    while, at the same time, maintaining military, diplomatic, and
    intelligence capabilities to deal with traditional problems and
    threats from low-technology countries and groups. The United States,
    as a global power, will have little choice but to engage leading
    actors and confront problems on both sides of the widening economic
    and digital divides in the world of 2015, when globalization's
    benefits will be far from global.

-   Third, international or multilateral arrangements increasingly will
    be called upon in 2015 to deal with growing transnational problems
    from economic and financial volatility; to legal and illegal
    migration; to competition for scarce natural resources such as
    water; to humanitarian, refugee, and environmental crises; to
    terrorism, narcotrafficking, and weapons proliferation; and to both
    regional conflicts and cyber threats. And when international
    cooperation---or international governance---comes up short, the
    United States and other developed countries will have to broker
    solutions among a wide array of international players---including
    governments at all levels, multinational corporations, and nonprofit
    organizations.

-   Fourth, and last, to deal with a transnational agenda and an
    interconnected world in 2015, governments will have to develop
    greater communication and collaboration between national security
    and domestic policy agencies, which, again, is why it is so
    appropriate for me to be here today. Interagency cooperation will be
    essential to understanding transnational threats, including regional
    conflict, and to developing interdisciplinary strategies to counter
    them. Consequence management of a BW attack, for example, would
    require close coordination among a host of U.S. Government agencies,
    foreign governments, U.S. state and municipal governments, the
    military, the medical community, and the media.