**Prospectus for Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3**

***The effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water
resources, and biodiversity***

Lead Agency: US Department of Agriculture

Supporting Agencies: Department of Energy

> US Geological Survey
>
> Environmental Protection Agency
>
> National Aeronautics and Space Administration
>
> National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
>
> National Science Foundation

**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**

1.  **Overview: Description of Topic, Audience, Intended Use, and
    Questions to be Addressed**

    1.  ***Description of Topic and Questions to be Addressed:***

The 2003 Strategic Plan for the United States Climate Change Science
Program identified 21 synthesis and assessment products that represent
principal responses to the top-priority research, observation, and
decision support needs of society. The Climate Change Science Program
(CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 (SAP 4.3) will address the
effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water
resources, and biodiversity[^1]. These areas are addressed under the
ecosystems, land use, and water research elements of the CCSP. One of
the primary goals of these research elements is to enhance understanding
and ability to estimate impacts of future climate change on these
systems and resources.

Over the past several decades, numerous scientific assessment reports
have described and discussed historical and potential impacts of climate
change and climate variability on managed and unmanaged systems and
their constituent biota and processes[^2]. This report will build on
recent assessments and focus on questions relevant to decision-makers.
In particular, this report will focus on our ability to identify,
observe, and monitor the stresses that influence agriculture, land
resources, water resources, and biodiversity. The report will evaluate
the relative importance of these stresses and how they are likely to
change in the future. A lasting contribution of this report will be the
synthesis of information on resource conditions, observation systems,
and monitoring capabilities that can be used to gauge future change.

The potential scope of the material in SAP 4.3 is very broad. To ensure
that the report addresses key resources in a meaningful way, the report
will focus on the assessment of the United States. To the degree,
however, that the systems and resources of concern to SAP 4.3 may be
affected by occurrences outside the political boundaries of the U.S.
(particularly within Canada and Mexico), those international
considerations will receive attention.

The timeframe of interest will be weighed toward the near-term (e.g. the
next 20-30 years), but will include limited discussions of longer-term
issues. We do not anticipate that the report will include specific
scenarios of future conditions. Rather, the report will highlight the
changes in resource conditions that recent scientific studies suggest
are most likely to occur in response to climate change, and when and
where to look for these changes. The resources that will be addressed in
this product are:

-   Agriculture

    -   Cropping systems

    -   Pasture and grazing lands

    -   Animal management

-   Land Resources

    -   Forests

    -   Arid lands

-   Water Resources

    -   Quantity, Availability, and Accessibility

    -   Quality

-   Biodiversity

    -   Species diversity

    -   Rare and sensitive ecosystems

Temperature, precipitation, and related climate variables are
fundamental regulators of biological processes, and so it is reasonable
to expect that climate change will have effects on the condition,
composition, structure, and functioning of biological systems and
resources. Such changes may also alter the linkages and feedbacks
between these systems and the climate system. Additionally, biological
systems and resources produce a wide array of goods and services valued
by humans.

Climate variables are linked to specific resource responses through
complex chains of interacting processes. Impacts of climate change on
managed and unmanaged systems interact with the impacts of numerous
other human actions, including land use changes that fragment and
degrade ecosystems at various spatial scales, pollutants, invasions of
non-native species, and resource management and utilization practices.
Competition for water is driven by many factors that have little to do
with climate change, including development and population growth. Water
quantity, availability, and accessibility could also be affected by
changes in climate. Demand could change in response to higher
temperatures and supply could change due to changes in precipitation
volume and timing. It is difficult to separate the effects of climate
change from those due to these other human activities. These challenges
are made all the more problematic by the current paucity of long-term
monitoring data and information for most managed and unmanaged system
types. However, in order to gain a better understanding of the effects
of climate change on resources and ecosystems, it is important to focus
specifically on our ability to identify causal links.

A primary focus of SAP 4.3 will be the identification of observations
and measures to establish baselines or benchmarks that could be used in
the future to evaluate changes in conditions. The report will also
highlight where we could expect to see effects as a consequence of
climate change. In order to accomplish this, the report will highlight
the factors that have the greatest potential to be influenced by climate
change. Factors include: temperature related factors (e.g. growing
season, heat stress, etc.), moisture related factors (e.g. rainfall,
snowpack, evapotranspiration rates, etc.), and other factors (e.g. human
demand for goods and services, pest tolerance, CO~2~ fertilization).
Second, the report will explore how changes in these factors could
increase or decrease stress on the resources and systems being examined.
Third, the report will identify indicators that can be used to assess
resource conditions and evaluate stress. Finally, the report will
provide an assessment of our ability to monitor changes in the stresses
facing the systems, including addressing whether these systems are
sensitive to changes attributable to climate change.

The specific questions to be addressed in SAP 4.3 are:

1.  What factors influencing agriculture, land resources, water
    resources, and biodiversity in the United States are sensitive to
    climate and climate change.

2.  How could changes in climate exacerbate or ameliorate stresses on
    agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity?

3.  What are the indicators of these stresses?

4.  What current and potential observation systems could be used to
    monitor these indicators?

5.  Can observation systems detect changes in agriculture, land
    resources, water resources, and biodiversity that are caused by
    climate change, as opposed to being driven by other causal
    activities?

The report will be based primarily on an objective evaluation of the
peer-reviewed literature. Other sources may be used as appropriate, as
identified by the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment
Products. The product will not provide advice or recommendations but
will be limited to a synthesis of facts and information. Where
appropriate, for example in addressing question 4, the report will
include evaluations of alternatives and options. The product will in
some cases rely on information developed through interpretation of
original data and synthesized products. This information could
incorporate additional contextual and/or normative data, standards, or
information that puts original data and synthesized products into larger
spatial, temporal, or issue contexts.

***1.2 Audience***

The document will be relevant to many audiences who have interests in
assessing and evaluating potential effects of climate change on
agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity. The
product will address scientific issues on a comprehensive, objective,
and transparent basis. While based on the peer-reviewed literature, it
will be written to be accessible and useful to the well-informed,
general readers, land and resource managers, policy-makers, and other
decision makers. Examples of potential users include:

-   Sectors, organizations, and individuals at local, state, regional,
    national, and international levels who make ecosystem and resource
    management decisions and establish natural resource policy;

-   Research scientists who conduct studies of climate change impacts on
    systems and resources, and on their potential responses;

-   State and local governments; and

-   Others who depend on and use the products and services provided by
    systems and resources to human communities.

2.  **Contact Information for Responsible Individuals at the Lead and
    Supporting Agencies**

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is the lead agency for SAP 4.3.
Key contacts for the lead and supporting agencies are listed below:

*US Department of Agriculture (lead agency)*

William Hohenstein -- <whohenst@mailoce.oce.usda.gov>, 202-720-6698

> Bryce Stokes -- <bstokes@fs.fed.us>, 703-605-5263

*US Geological Survey (supporting agency)*

> Jack Waide -- <jwaide@usgs.gov>, 703-648-4053

*US Department of Energy (supporting agency)*

> Jeff Amthor --
> [Jeff.Amthor@science.doe.gov](mailto:Jeff.Amthor@scence.doe.gov),
> 301-903-2507

*Environmental Protection Agency (supporting agency)*

> Susan Herrod-Julius -- <Julius.susan@epa.gov>, 202-564-3394

*National Aeronautics and Space Administration (supporting agency)*

> Woody Turner -- <woody.turner@hq.nasa.gov>, 202-358-1662
>
> Paula Bontempi -- <paula.s.bontempi@hq.nasa.gov>, 202-358-1508

*National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (supporting agency)*

> (TBD)

*National Science Foundation (supporting agency)*

> Henry Gholz -- <hgholz@nsf.gov>, 703-292-7185
>
> Phil Taylor -- <prtaylor@nsf.gov>, 703-292-8582

3.  **Document Production and Lead Author Selection**

The overarching goal of the synthesis and assessment reports called for
in the CCSP Strategic Plan is to provide society with research and
observations to help it deal with key climate change issues. Given the
breadth of SAP 4.3, USDA foresees significant benefit from cooperation
between federal, academic, and private scientists and researchers in
producing the report. While the document will benefit the federal
government, the audience for the report includes scientists,
organizations, industry, and governments at the state and local levels.
The product will be of mutual interest and benefit to the author team,
the organizations involved, and the broader scientific, technical, and
policy community. SAP 4.3 will provide a comprehensive reference for
those involved with managing agricultural systems, land and water
resources, and biodiversity on the potential stresses that could affect
these systems due to climate change. The document will provide a direct
benefit to organizations that are working to improve the scientific
understanding human interactions with the climate system. The document
will also be of use to resource managers that are developing plans that
need to accommodate climate variability and change. The production of
the document will be best served by an exchange of resources and
substantial involvement between USDA, other federal agencies, and a
cooperator (including activities such as drafting, providing reviews,
financial assistance, and technical input). Based on these
considerations, USDA decided to pursue the production of this report
through a cooperative agreement.

Development of SAP 4.3 will require an interdisciplinary group of lead
and supporting authors with expertise and experience directly related to
the subject matter. The cooperator, in coordination with USDA, will
select a convening lead author and lead authors for each chapter of the
report, consistent with the following required expertise. The public may
submit nominations for consideration. Nominations should be emailed to
[**whohenst@mailoce.oce.usda.gov**](mailto:whohenst@mailoce.oce.usda.gov)
or sent to William Hohenstein at the United States Department of
Agriculture, 1400 Independence Ave., SW, Room 112-A J. L. Whitten
Building, Washington DC, 20250 on or before July 21, 2006. Nominations
must include CVs, publications listings and brief descriptions of the
strengths of the nominee(s).

The convening, lead, and supporting authors will be scientists or
individuals with recognized technical expertise appropriate to assessing
the effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water
resources, and biodiversity. Authors may be citizens of any country and
be drawn from within or outside the Federal government (e.g.,
universities or other public or private sector organizations). Authors
will be acknowledged as experts based on their publication records and
relevant accomplishments and contributions, including, editorial record;
experience directing research efforts; academic training; professional
service; operational knowledge of agriculture, forestry, biodiversity,
land resources, and water resources; professional memberships; previous
contributions to international, national, and regional scientific
assessments; receipt of national professional awards; and other
applicable special experience or abilities.

Biographies of the report's primary authors are given below in Section
10 of this prospectus.

The convening lead author and lead authors for each chapter of the
report ---organized by the cooperator, will draft answers to the five
key questions addressed in the product. The lead authors will
incorporate material from any supporting authors as they deem
appropriate. The convening lead author and lead authors will also
prepare an introductory section to describe the topic, the audience, and
the intended use of this product. The lead authors will incorporate
material from supporting authors in the draft product.

After the product is drafted, the convening lead author and lead authors
will write a non-technical summary and synthesis. Authors will base all
their writing on published, peer-reviewed scientific literature. Authors
will consider the full range of relevant peer-reviewed information.
Highly relevant non-peer reviewed literature may be used with permission
from USDA and the CCSPO. The product and its non-technical summary will
identify disparate views, where appropriate.

4.  **Stakeholder Interactions**

In preparing this draft prospectus, USDA and supporting agencies
considered feedback received from stakeholders at the December 2002
Climate Change Science Program Planning Workshop for Scientists and
Stakeholders and the November 2005 U.S. Climate Change Science Program
Workshop: Climate Science in Support of Decision Making. Development of
this prospectus reflects other recent developments as well. The lead and
supporting agencies will refine and shape the scope, content, and
organization of the product based on input provided by scientists,
decision makers, resource managers, and other stakeholders received
during the prospectus public comment period.

In addition, USDA, working with the supporting agencies, will provide
guidance to the cooperator regarding solicitation of additional input
from a broader group of stakeholders at the beginning of the product
drafting process. Stakeholder input will be sought at the USDA
Greenhouse Gas Symposium, to be held in Baltimore, MD in February 2007.
Additionally, during development of the draft report, authors will
present report outlines to meetings of identified stakeholder groups to
present a draft outline of the report's contents and solicit commentary
and suggestions. This input, together with other input received from
sources noted above will be considered carefully in defining the scope,
organization, content, and expectations for the product.

5.  **Drafting Process: Materials to be Used in Preparing the Product**

The convening and lead authors, organized by the cooperator, will meet
in person, through e-mail exchanges, and via teleconferences, to develop
a detailed outline for the organization and content of the product, to
draft answers to the key questions to be addressed, and to prepare the
introductory section. The lead authors may assign primary responsibility
for drafting components of the responses to questions to a supporting
author.

Lead and supporting authors will base their writing on published,
peer-reviewed scientific literature. Authors will consider the full
range of relevant peer-reviewed information. The product and its
non-technical summary will identify disparate views, where appropriate,
and will carefully enumerate remaining sources of uncertainty and their
effects on the responses to the questions and the main conclusions to be
reached.

As stated in the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment
Products, "Authors will use the published, peer-reviewed scientific
literature in drafting the products. In the rare case that any materials
used in preparing a product are not already published in the
peer-reviewed literature, the lead agency(ies) must get approval from
the CCSP Interagency Committee and these materials must be made
available by the lead agency(ies) and/or CCSP Office. The use of any
such non-peer-reviewed materials may be questioned by reviewers during
the expert review or public comment period. Authors should seek to
publish any materials used in preparing drafts of the products."

6.  **Review Process**

The product will be reviewed independently, following the process
described in the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment
Products, including (1) a first draft for expert peer review, (2) a
second draft posted for public comment, and (3) a third draft for final
review and approval through the CCSP Interagency Committee and the
National Science and Technology Council (NSTC).

The expert peer review for the product will fully comply with
requirements of the Information Quality Act (PL 106-554, §515(a))
("IQA"), USDA's Information Quality Guidelines, and the requirements of
the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) Final Information Quality
Bulletin for Peer Review ("OMB Bulletin"), including developing the peer
review plan, preparing the peer review report, and developing the
response to the peer review.

Prior to completion of the first draft of the product, USDA, working
with supporting agencies, will develop a peer review plan and post it on
its website, (<http://www.usda.gov/oce/agenda.htm>) as part of its
Agenda of Peer Review Plans, with a link to the CCSP web site. The peer
review plan will include the tentative title of the product report, a
short paragraph describing the subject and purpose of the report, and an
agency contact person.

USDA intends to pursue the expert peer review through the establishment
of a Federal Advisory Committee (FACA). The public is invited to
nominate independent scientific reviewers to the FACA review committee.
Nominations should be emailed to
[**whohenst@mailoce.oce.usda.gov**](mailto:whohenst@mailoce.oce.usda.gov)
or sent to William Hohenstein at the United States Department of
Agriculture, 1400 Independence Ave., SW, Room 112-A J. L. Whitten
Building, Washington DC, 20250 on or before January 21, 2007.
Nominations must include CVs and publications listings. The expert
review process will involve one or more face to face meetings of the
FACA Review Committee in compliance with the Federal Advisory Committee
Act and with the requirements for peer review from the Office of
Management and Budget Final Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review
("OMB Peer Review Bulletin"), issued 16 December 2004. Each Expert FACA
Reviewer will review the document as a whole. USDA will select qualified
reviewers based on their experience, published work, and stature within
and across scientific and technical communities. USDA will also screen
for real or perceived conflict of interest and ensure that the full
slate of reviewers selected reflects a balance of scientific and
technical perspectives.

Following expert review, the authors will revise the draft product by
incorporating comments and suggestions from the reviewers, as the
authors deem appropriate. USDA will prepare the required peer review
report, including a summary of peer review comments and the agency's
response to the review. The peer review report will be posted on USDA's
web site and linked to the CCSP web site.

Following this expert review process, the second draft will be released
for public comment following CCSP guidelines. The public comment period
will last at least 45 days. The authors will prepare a third draft of
the product, taking into consideration the comments submitted during the
public comment period. The scientific judgment of the authors will
determine responses to the comments. A summary of the public comments
received for the product will be posted on the CCSP web site.

The third draft of the product will be submitted to the CCSP Interagency
Committee for final review and approval. If the CCSP Interagency
Committee review determines that no further action is needed and that
the product has been prepared in conformance with these guidelines and
the IQA (including ensuring objectivity, utility, and integrity as
defined in 67 FR 8452), they will submit the product to the National
Science and Technology Council (NSTC) for clearance. If the CCSP
Interagency Committee determines that further revision is necessary,
their comments will be sent to the lead agency for consideration and
resolution by the authors. If needed, the National Research Council
(NRC) will be asked to provide additional scientific analysis to bound
scientific uncertainty associated with specific issues. The lead agency
will produce the final product and it will be released in coordination
with the Climate Change Science Program Office (CCSPO).

7.  **Related Activities, including Other National and International
    Assessment Processes**

This CCSP product will draw on previous Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) assessments (e.g., First, Second, and Third
Assessment Reports); the 2000 United State National Assessment of the
Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (including the
Foundation and Overview reports and the several regional and topical
assessment reports); the Artic Climate Impact Assessment, 2005; the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; relevant NRC reports (e.g., Global
Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade, 1999;
Science Priorities for the Human Dimensions of Global Change, 1994; Sea
Level Rise and Coastal Disasters: Summary of a Forum, 2002; Hydrologic
Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An
Initial Assessment, 1999; Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some
Key Questions, 2001); and other relevant national and international
reports. It is expected that this CCSP product will provide input to
future IPCC assessments, and future NRC reports on climate change
effects.

8.  **Communications: Proposed Method of Publication and Dissemination
    of the Products**

USDA will coordinate production and release with CCSPO using the
standard format established for all CCSP Synthesis and Assessment
Products. The final product and the comments received during the public
comment period will be posted on the CCSP web site. Similarly, the peer
review report for the product, along with the lead agency's response to
the review, will be posted on USDA's website and linked to the CCSP web
site. The number of hard copies of the product, and the means for
dissemination and notification of availability will be designed to
ensure broad availability to the scientific community and to the public,
including all stakeholders with a stated interest in the product.

9.  **Proposed Timeline**

[2006]{.underline}

March Draft prospectus prepared for review

May Prospectus provided to CCSP Principals for approval

June-July Public review of draft prospectus

August USDA releases peer-review plan on USDA web-site

September Work plan prepared by cooperator

November Final prospectus cleared & published on CCSP web site

August- December Authors meet to draft of technical chapters

[2007]{.underline}

January-February Authors meet to draft technical chapters

March First draft completed by lead and contributing authors

April Expert review of first draft

June Second draft completed

July Public comments on second draft completed

September Third draft completed

October CCSP review of third draft completed

December NSTC approval of final product

December Final product published on CCSP website

10. **Biographies for Lead Authors**

**Dr. Jerry L. Hatfield** is Director of the USDA-ARS National Soil
Tilth Laboratory in Ames, Iowa. He received his Ph.D. from Iowa State
University in 1975 in Agricultural Climatology and Statistics, M.S. in
Agronomy from the University of Kentucky in 1972, and B.S. from Kansas
State University in Agronomy in 1971. He served on the faculty of the
University of California-Davis as a biometeorologist from 1975 through
1983 and then joined USDA-Agricultural Research Service in Lubbock,
Texas as the Research Leader of the Plant Stress and Water Conservation
Research Unit from 1983 through 1989. He was appointed Laboratory
Director of the National Soil Tilth Laboratory in 1989. His
responsibilities have included the management of the laboratory research
program and technical oversight of the multi-location, multi-agency
environmental quality program to assess the impact of farming systems on
environmental quality and the development of a quality assurance/quality
control data for the analytical portion of the project. The results of
these studies have been extended in several watershed efforts in the
Midwest to evaluate the impact of farming systems on surface and
groundwater quality caused by nutrient and pesticide movement. Dr.
Hatfield currently serves as the Technical Leader for the air quality
projects within USDA-ARS and responsible for fostering interactions
among research locations and is co-leader of the Air Quality Working
Group of the USDA-EPA AFO Research Task Force. He served on the
Governors Water Quality Task Force in Iowa to evaluate potential
solutions to water quality solutions. He is currently serving as the
Scientific Quality Review Officer for USDA-ARS and is responsible for
the management of the project review process for all research projects
within ARS. He serves as the USDA-ARS representative to the Heinz Center
project on the State of the Nation's Ecosystems, the Key Indicators
Initiative, and National Audubon society project on Waterbirds on
Working Lands. He is a Fellow of the American Society of Agronomy, Crop
Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America and is
President-Elect of the American Society of Agronomy. He is a member of
the Board of Directors of the Soil and Water Conservation Society. He is
the author or co-author of 336 publications and the editor of 10
monographs including *Nitrogen in the Environment: Sources, Problems and
Management.* Dr. Hatfield has been a leader on the development of a
quantitative understanding of the interactions of soil water, nitrogen,
light, and carbon dioxide across crop production fields. Several
intensive research projects that measure the energy balance and crop
growth and yield across multiple soils within a field and different
management practices have been developed and have shown the role of soil
management on crop production efficiency. These studies have formed the
foundation for an expanded effort to develop decision tools for
producers to use that will incorporate risk management decisions and
climate change scenarios into field-scale management practices. This
effort is in partnership with the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation to
develop more effective tools for crop damage assessment and improved
risk management. A recent book edited by J.L. Hatfield and J.M. Baker
*Micrometeorology in Agricultural Systems* (2005) represents one of the
first attempts to compile a monograph on this topic.

**Dr. Anthony Janetos** joined the Joint Global Change Research
Institute as Director in October 2006. Previously, he served as Vice
President and Director of the Global Change Program at the H. John Heinz
III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, Vice President
for Science and Research at the World Resources Institute, and Senior
Scientist for the Land-Cover and Land-Use Change Program in NASA's
Office of Earth Science. He also was Program Scientist for NASA's
Landsat 7 mission. Dr. Janetos has many years of experience in managing
scientific and policy research programs on a variety of ecological and
environmental topics, including air pollution effects on forests,
climate change impacts, land-use change, ecosystem modeling, and the
global carbon cycle. He was a co-chair of the US National Assessment of
the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, and an
author in the IPCC Special Report on Land-Use Change and Forestry, and
the Global Biodiversity Assessment. Dr. Janetos has served on numerous
NRC committees, and chaired the NASA-supported Landsat Global Data
Working Group. He was a co-chair of the U.S. National Assessment of the
Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and an author
of the IPCC Special Report on Land-Use Change and Forestry and the
Global Biodiversity Assessment, and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.
Most recently he has served on National Research Council Committees on
Funding Scientific Research at the Smithsonian Institution, Reviewing
the Bush Administration's Climate Change Science Strategic Plan, and The
Decadal Study for Earth Observations.

**Dr. Dennis Lettenmaier** received his B.S. in Mechanical Engineering
(summa cum laude) at the University of Washington in 1971, his M.S. in
Civil, Mechanical, and Environmental Engineering at the George
Washington University in 1973, and his Ph.D. at the University of
Washington in 1975. He joined the University of Washington faculty in
1976. In addition to his service at the University of Washington, he
spent a year as visiting scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey in
Reston, VA (1985-86) and was the Program Manager of NASA\'s Land Surface
Hydrology Program at NASA Headquarters in 1997-98. He is a member of the
American Geophysical Union, the American Water Resources Association,
the American Meteorological Society, and the American Society of Civil
Engineers. He was a recipient of ASCE\'s Huber Research Prize in 1990,
and the American Geophysical Union's Hydrology Section Award in 2000. 
He is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and American
Meteorological Society, and is the author of over 100 journal articles.
He was the first Chief Editor of the American Meteorological Society
Journal of Hydrometeorology, and is currently an Associate Editor of
Water Resources Research.  His areas of research interest are large
scale hydrology, hydrologic aspects of remote sensing, and
hydrology-climate interactions.

**Dr. Michael G. Ryan** is a Research Ecologist for the USDA Forest
Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station in Fort Collins, Colorado, and
a member faculty of the Graduate Degree Program in Ecology at Colorado
State University. His research focuses on forests and the carbon cycle,
including forest productivity, changes in tree physiology and ecosystem
processes with disturbance and recovery, carbon allocation, the effects
of global change, plant respiration, ecosystem respiration, soil carbon
and nitrogen interactions, decomposition of soil carbon, and
coordination of carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Mike has led or
participated in field research studies in the US (e.g., Colorado,
Wyoming, Hawaii, New Mexico), Costa Rica, Canada, Brazil, New Zealand,
and Australia. He led the first comparison of forest ecosystem process
models as part SCOPE Project "Global Change: Effects on coniferous
forests and grasslands". Mike also serves as an editor for *Tree
Physiology,* is on the editorial review board of *Plant, Cell and
Environment*, and is chair of the International Union of Forestry
Research Organization's working group on Canopy Processes. He received
his B.S. from the University of Pittsburgh, M.S. from Northern Arizona
University, Ph.D. from Oregon State University and was a post-doctoral
fellow at the Ecosystems Center at the Marine Biological Laboratory.

**Dr. David Schimel** is Senior Scientist at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Senior Research Scientist and member of the
Graduate Faculty at Colorado State University, and was a Founding
Director of the Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena,
Germany. He also serves as the Editor in Chief of Ecological
Applications for the Ecological Society of America. His interests are in
biogeochemistry, the global carbon cycle and carbon cycle processes, in
climate impacts on ecosystems, and on scaling ecological theory to the
landscape and larger regions. His specific research has addressed
plant-herbivore interactions, landscape and erosional controls over
biogeochemistry, climate impacts on vegetation dynamics, soil processes
and carbon budgets, and disturbance effects on ecosystem processes,
especially cultivation and fire. He has conducted numerous field
programs in the U.S. Great Plains and Rocky Mountains, Texas, Africa and
Asia. He is also known for his work in modeling and remote sensing, was
a co-author of the Century model, a Principal Investigator in NASA's
Earth Observing System, and is currently pioneering the adaptation of
"data assimilation" modeling techniques from meteorology into ecological
modeling. He has also been involved in applications of ecology for many
years, beginning with early work on agroecology, moving into roles as
Convening Lead Author for the first IPCC assessment of the carbon cycle,
and member of the National Assessment Synthesis Team. Dr. Schimel has
long played a role in the international arena, beginning with
co-chairing the SCOPE project "Exchange of trace gases between
terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere" in the 1980s, through the
present where he serves as Founding Co-Chair in the International
Geosphere-Biosphere's Analysis, Interpretation and Modeling of the Earth
System core project. Schimel received his BA from Hampshire College in
1977, worked at the Marine Biological Lab's Ecosystems Center 1977-1979,
and completed his Ph.D. from Colorado State University in 1982. He
serves or has served on the Editorial Boards of Science, Global Change
Biology, Annual Reviews of Environment and Resources, and
Biogeochemistry. Dr. Schimel's current emphases are divided between
field and modeling studies of climate change and Western US ecosystems,
and enhancing the communication of ecological science to decisionmakers,
especially in the non-Federal arena.

[^1]: On July 15, 2005, CCSP agreed to modify its SAP list to explicitly
    incorporate coverage of all assessment areas listed under Section
    106 of the Global Change Research Act. One of these modifications
    was to change Product 4.3 to focus on effects of climate change on
    agriculture, biodiversity, land and water resources. Product 4.3 was
    initially focused on the relationship between observed ecosystem
    changes and climate change.

[^2]: A description of relevant assessments and reports is included in
    section 7 of this prospectus.