Voluntary Report - Public distribution

**Date:** 5/12/2008

**GAIN Report Number:** PK8017

PK8017

**Pakistan**

**Agricultural Situation**

**Pakistan on Ug99 High Alert**

**2008**

**Approved by:**

Margaret E. Thursland

![](media/image1.wmf)Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy Islamabad

**Prepared by:**

Asmat Raza, Agricultural Specialist

Alexander Whittington, Economic Officer

**Report Highlights:**

Pakistan is on high alert following detection of the deadly Ug99 wheat
stem rust disease in Iran in March 2008. Initial steps have already been
taken by the Pakistan Agriculture Research Council and the National
Wheat Program to develop wheat varieties with resistance to the deadly
disease. It is predicted that Ug99 could reach Pakistan within 2 to 3
years. To date, Ug99 has not been detected in Pakistan's 2008 wheat
crop. The Government of Pakistan has allocated 40 million rupees (USD
645,000) for agricultural research to combat the threat to the domestic
wheat crop. Two Pakistani plant scientists will attend training this
year on Ug99 at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in
Mexico under USDA's Borlaug Fellowship Program.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Annual Report

Islamabad \[PK1\]

\[PK\]

**Pakistan on UG99 High Alert**

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations put
Pakistan and five other wheat-producing countries on high alert
following confirmed reports that Ug99 wheat stem rust had been detected
in major wheat-growing areas in western Iran. Pakistan, located to the
east of Iran, is in the predicted, immediate pathway for windborne
spread of the deadly wheat fungus spores -- particularly in Sindh and
lower Punjab.

**No Ug99 in Pakistan Yet -- But the Clock is Ticking**

Wheat rusts are not new to Pakistan. The country faced its first
challenge in 1977 when a rust epidemic decimated what crops and forced
the GOP to import over 2 million tons of wheat to meet domestic demand.
Following the 1977-78 outbreak, Pakistan established strong linkages
with research institutions including the Mexico-based International
Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and the Syria-headquartered
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
(ICARDA). Through collaborative efforts, Pakistani plant breeders
receive germ plasm from these centers for use in ongoing wheat strain
breeding programs.

According to a survey conducted by the Pakistan Agriculture Research
Council (PARC), there is currently a low overall incidence of wheat stem
rust in Pakistan's 2008 wheat crop and only one suspected case of Ug99
has been reported. The case, detected in wheat-producing Sindh Province,
proved to be a local strain of wheat rust and not the feared Ug99. The
good news may be short-lived as scientists fear that Pakistan has only a
window of 2 to 3 years before Ug99 is found within its borders.

Dr Mujeeb Qazi, Program Director of Pakistan's National Wheat Program,
warns against complacency. According to Dr. Qazi, the swift movement of
Ug99 from Yemen to Iran within just one year has raised alarm bells
within Pakistan's scientific community. Pakistani researchers will have
to expedite efforts to protect wheat productivity over the next crop
cycle (2008-09) by locally introducing Ug99-resistant wheat seed. Dr
Qazi warned that, as with 80 percent of all wheat varieties planted in
Asia and Africa, the germ plasm of all major Pakistani wheat varieties
tested in Kenya over the past few years did not provide adequate
resistance to Ug99. Danger is at the doorstep.

**40 Million Rupees Allocated to Combat the Threat**

The Government of Pakistan has allocated 40 million rupees (USD 645,000)
to combat the threat of Ug99. The effort includes revitalizing
Pakistan's wheat research capacity and implementing a wheat rust early
warning system. An aggressive breeding program has been established
utilizing new bio-technological molecular markers and haploids and
active collaborative with international centers such as CIMMYT and
ICARDA.

**Three-Tier Strategy Begun**

The Pakistan Agriculture Research Council (PARC) and the National Wheat
Programme have devised a three-tier strategy to protect the Pakistan
wheat crop from Ug99. First, high-yielding germ plasm selected from the
elite screening nursery at CIMMYT will be introduced, adapted and then
released. These varieties have shown resistance to Ug99 based on testing
in Africa's hot spots. Secondly, material from the international stem
rust screening nursery will be integrated with commercial wheat crops.
Thirdly, agricultural scientists hope to identify rust-resistant plant
genes and incorporate them into wheat strains via traditional plant
breeding programs. Disease surveillance and wheat breeding is already
underway to monitor for wheat rust and to develop Ug99 resistant
varieties.

Dr Mujeeb Qazi, Program Director of Pakistan's National Wheat Program,
warns against complacency. According to Dr. Qazi, the swift movement of
Ug99 from Yemen to Iran within just one year has raised alarm bells
within Pakistan's scientific community. Pakistani researchers will have
to expedite efforts to protect wheat productivity over the next crop
cycle (2008-09) by locally introducing Ug99-resistant wheat seed. Dr
Qazi warned that, as with 80 percent of all wheat varieties planted in
Asia and Africa, the germ plasm of all major Pakistani wheat varieties
tested in Kenya over the past few years did not provide adequate
resistance to Ug99. Danger is at the doorstep.

**Borlaug Fellowship Program Funds CIMMYT Training**

Two Pakistani wheat stem rust scientists will attend training at CIMMYT
later this year under USDA's Borlaug Fellowship Program.

# 

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# OTHER RELEVANT REPORTS

  ----------- --------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------
  **REPORT    **SUBJECT**                                                     **DATE
  \#**                                                                        SUBMITTED**

  PK7020      [Pakistan to Import 1 Million Ton                               09/18/2007
              Wheat](http://intranetapps/GainFiles/200709/146292415.pdf)      

  PK7034      [Backdrop for Current Wheat                                     12/20/2007
              Shortage](http://intranetapps/GainFiles/200712/146293324.pdf)   

  PK7035      [December Wheat Situation                                       12/20/2007
              Update](http://intranetapps/GainFiles/200712/146293338.pdf)     

  PK8010      [Grain and Feed Annual                                          03/06/2008
              2008](http://intranetapps/GainFiles/200803/146294016.pdf)       
  ----------- --------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------

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