Tropical Cyclone Report

Tropical Storm Emilia

(EP062006)

21-28 July 2006

Stacy R. Stewart

National Hurricane Center

11 December 2006

Emilia produced localized heavy rainfall and tropical storm force winds
over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula of Mexico
without making landfall.

a.  Synoptic History

    A tropical wave moved across northern South America into the eastern
    North Pacific Ocean on 16 July, and continued steadily westward for
    the next several days with little change in organization. By early
    on 20 July, a surface low pressure system developed along the wave
    axis about 370 n mi south of Acapulco, Mexico, and deep convection
    began to increase. The low pressure area turned northwestward early
    on 21 July and thunderstorm activity increased and became organized
    enough for the system to be classified as a tropical depression at
    1200 UTC, about 350 n mi south-southwest of Acapulco. The "best
    track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given in Fig. 1, with
    the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3,
    respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in
    Table 1.

    After turning northwestward, convective banding features gradually
    developed and became better defined, and the cyclone strengthened
    into a tropical storm by 0600 UTC 22 July about 350 n mi south of
    Manzanillo, Mexico. For the next five days, Tropical Storm Emilia
    alternated back and forth between a west-northwestward and
    north-northwestward direction around the southwestern periphery of a
    large subtropical ridge centered over the southwestern United States
    and northern Mexico. Around 0600 UTC 22 July, Emilia passed about
    150 n mi southwest of Manzanillo and likely produced wind gusts to
    tropical storm force along the southwestern coast of mainland
    Mexico. Emilia reached its first peak intensity of 55 kt at 1800 UTC
    23 July about 190 n mi west-southwest of Manzanillo. A sharp
    increase in vertical wind shear caused the cyclone to weaken for the
    next 24 hours.

    Emilia began to re-intensify early on 25 July as the shear relaxed,
    and the cyclone reached its second peak intensity of 55 kt early on
    26 July. Later that day, the center of Emilia passed about 50 n mi
    southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, located on the southwestern coast of
    the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico. Outer rain bands affected
    southern portions of Baja California with locally heavy rainfall and
    tropical storm force winds. By early on 27 July, Emilia turned
    toward the west-northwest moved over much cooler water off the west
    coast of Baja California, and began to rapidly weaken. Emilia became
    a tropical depression by 1200 UTC 27 July and degenerated into a
    non-convective remnant low pressure system at 0600 UTC on 28 July
    about 280 n mi west of Punta Eugenia. The low moved slowly westward
    for the next 2 days before turning sharply northward early on 30
    July. It dissipated at 1200 UTC 31 July about 430 n mi
    west-southwest of San Diego, California.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Emilia (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based
    Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and
    the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). Microwave satellite
    imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical
    Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense
    Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful
    in tracking Emilia.

    Peak intensity estimates of 55 kt at 1800 UTC 23 July and between
    0000 UTC and 1200 UTC 26 July are based on a blend of subjective
    Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and AFWA,
    University of Wisconsin-CIMSS advance objective Dvorak T-numbers
    (ODT), and QuikSCAT wind values. Although a small mid-level eye
    feature briefly appeared in microwave satellite imagery between
    0600-1000 UTC 26 July 2006 (Fig. 4), subsequent images just a few
    hours later indicated the eye feature had eroded. The lack of a
    persistent and well-defined eye is the basis for not designating
    Emilia as a hurricane operationally and in post-storm analysis.
    Tropical storm force winds were reported along the southern tip of
    Baja California and southwestern coast of Baja California. Between
    2200-2300 UTC 25 July, Cabo San Lucas, Mexico (elevation 731 ft/223
    m ASL) reported a 10-minute average wind of 37 kt, and a 37-kt wind
    with a gust to 48 kt was reported at Puerto Cortes, Mexico
    (elevation 137 ft/42m ASL) at 0730 UTC 26 July. Ship **H9UY**
    (Table 2) at 1500 UTC 24 July, located about 65 n mi northwest of
    Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, reported a sustained wind of 35 kt. The
    trajectory of the wind direction suggests that at least tropical
    storm force wind gusts possibly occurred along the southwestern
    coast of mainland Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.

    News reports indicate rainfall totals of 3 to 5 in were measured at
    a few locations across the southern Baja California peninsula with 5
    in being reported in Cabo San Lucas. Higher amounts likely occurred
    in the higher elevations of southern Baja.

    Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with Emilia
    are given in Table 2.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    News media reports indicate there were a few occurrences of minor
    flooding in and around the Cabo San Lucas area. Although some minor
    damage occurred to buildings and above-ground utility lines, no
    significant damage was reported in the main tourist regions of the
    city. However, several marinas along the southern tip of Baja
    California received minor damage from waves and were closed for
    about two days. There were no reports of casualties associated with
    Emilia.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    Tropical Weather Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center began
    describing the area of disturbed weather from which Emilia
    originated several days prior to tropical cyclogenesis. However, the
    outlooks did not indicate the possible formation of a tropical
    depression in the area until 13 h before genesis actually occurred.

    A verification of official and guidance model track forecasts is
    given in Table 3. Average official track errors for Emilia were 40,
    75, 103, 117, 126, 144, and 157 n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96,
    and 120 h forecasts, respectively. The number of forecasts ranged
    from 25 at 12 h to 7 at 120 h. These errors are greater than the
    average long-term official track errors through 72 h, and then much
    lower at 96 and 120 h. There was generally a west bias in the
    official track forecasts in anticipation of the development of a
    stronger mid-level ridge that was expected to steer the cyclone more
    westward than west-northwestward. After about 48 hours of official
    forecasts, the subtropical ridge to the north of Emilia was assessed
    as being weaker than originally expected. Subsequent forecasts were
    shifted northward, which resulted in an improvement in the track
    forecast errors at all times.

    Average official intensity errors (Table 4) for Emilia were 6.6,
    11.3, 14.3, 12.6., 6.7, 4.1, and 7.9 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72,
    96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. For comparison, the average
    long-term official intensity errors are 6, 11, 14, 17, 18, 18, and
    19 kt. The hindering effects of vertical wind shear were well
    assessed from the beginning, and this resulted in the mean intensity
    forecast errors for Emilia being smaller than the long-term average
    errors, especially at 72-120 h.

    Watches and warnings issued for Emilia are listed in Table 5.

Table 1. Best track for Tropical Storm Emilia, 21-28 July 2006.

+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| Da      | L       | Lo      | P       | Wind    | Stage           |
| te/Time | atitude | ngitude | ressure | Speed   |                 |
|         |         |         |         |         |                 |
| (UTC)   | \(N\)   | \(W\)   | (mb)    | (kt)    |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 21 /    | 11.9    | 103.0   | 1007    | 25      | tropical        |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         | depression      |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 21 /    | 12.5    | 103.1   | 1006    | 25      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 22 /    | 13.1    | 103.4   | 1005    | 30      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 22 /    | 13.8    | 103.7   | 1004    | 35      | tropical storm  |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 22 /    | 14.9    | 104.3   | 1004    | 35      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 22 /    | 15.9    | 104.6   | 1003    | 35      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 23 /    | 16.8    | 105.3   | 1001    | 40      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 23 /    | 17.3    | 106.3   | 999     | 45      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 23 /    | 17.9    | 107.0   | 995     | 50      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 23 /    | 18.0    | 107.7   | 991     | 55      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 24 /    | 18.1    | 108.4   | 993     | 50      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 24 /    | 18.3    | 109.2   | 995     | 45      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 24 /    | 18.6    | 109.6   | 995     | 45      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 24 /    | 19.0    | 110.1   | 995     | 45      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 25 /    | 19.5    | 110.4   | 995     | 45      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 25 /    | 19.9    | 110.7   | 993     | 50      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 25 /    | 20.3    | 111.0   | 993     | 50      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 25 /    | 21.4    | 111.3   | 993     | 50      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 26 /    | 22.5    | 111.5   | 991     | 55      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 26 /    | 23.6    | 112.2   | 990     | 55      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 26 /    | 24.4    | 113.1   | 991     | 55      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 26 /    | 25.1    | 114.1   | 993     | 50      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 27 /    | 25.6    | 115.3   | 998     | 45      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 27 /    | 26.3    | 116.5   | 1003    | 35      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 27 /    | 26.9    | 117.8   | 1008    | 25      | tropical        |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         | depression      |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 27 /    | 27.2    | 118.7   | 1009    | 25      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 28 /    | 27.9    | 119.5   | 1009    | 25      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 28 /    | 28.0    | 120.3   | 1009    | 25      | remnant low     |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 28 /    | 28.0    | 121.1   | 1010    | 20      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 28 /    | 27.9    | 121.8   | 1010    | 20      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 29 /    | 27.6    | 122.5   | 1011    | 20      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 29 /    | 27.4    | 123.3   | 1011    | 20      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 29 /    | 27.5    | 124.1   | 1011    | 20      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 29 /    | 27.9    | 124.7   | 1011    | 20      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 30 /    | 28.4    | 125.1   | 1011    | 20      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 30 /    | 29.0    | 125.3   | 1011    | 20      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 30 /    | 29.7    | 125.2   | 1011    | 20      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 30 /    | 30.3    | 125.2   | 1012    | 15      | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 31 /    | 30.6    | 125.2   | 1012    | 15      | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 31 /    | 30.8    | 125.2   | 1012    | 15      | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 31 /    | 31.0    | 125.3   | 1013    | 15      | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 31 /    |         |         |         |         | dissipated      |
| 1800    |         |         |         |         |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+
| 26 /    | 23.6    | 112.2   | 990     | 55      | minimum         |
| 0600    |         |         |         |         | pressure        |
+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----------------+

Table 2. Selected ship and buoy reports with winds of at least 34 kt for
Tropical Storm Emilia,

21-28 July 2006.

+----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| D        | Ship call | Latitude  | Longitude | Wind      | Pressure  |
| ate/Time | sign      |           |           |           |           |
| (UTC)    |           | (^o^N)    | (^o^W)    | dir/speed | (mb)      |
|          |           |           |           | (kt)      |           |
+==========+===========+===========+===========+===========+===========+
| 24 /     | H9UY      | 21.2      | 106.6     | 140 / 35  | 1007.0    |
| 1500     |           |           |           |           |           |
+----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 25 /     | DPCU      | 20.4      | 106.9     | 120 / 45  | 1009.5    |
| 0600     |           |           |           |           |           |
+----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 25 /     | P3GY9     | 25.4      | 110.3     | 120 / 38  | 1009.0    |
| 0600     |           |           |           |           |           |
+----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 25 /     | DGGV      | 21.4      | 108.5     | 130 / 40  | 1005.5    |
| 0900     |           |           |           |           |           |
+----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+

Table 3. Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for
Tropical Storm

Emilia, 21-28 July 2006. Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the
number of forecasts in

parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in
bold-face type.

Verification includes the depression stage.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Forecast  | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 50    | 107   | 168   | 205   | 210   | 224   | 359 ( |
|           | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 40    | *     | *     | 125   | 178   | 237 ( | 370 ( |
|           | (22)  | *65** | *92** | (14)  | (10)  | 4)    | 1)    |
|           |       | (20)  | (18)  |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | *     | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | 227 ( |
|           | *39** | *66** | *90** | 104** | 106** | 142** | 7)    |
|           | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | 49    | 86    | 125   | 156   | 210   | 248 ( | 587 ( |
|           | (24)  | (21)  | (19)  | (16)  | (11)  | 7)    | 1)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | 50    | 89    | 125   | 153   | 227   | 328   | 424 ( |
|           | (25)  | (20)  | (20)  | (18)  | (14)  | (10)  | 6)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     |       |
|           | *35** | *66** | *90** | *87** | *91** | *60** |       |
|           | (10)  | ( 8)  | ( 6)  | ( 4)  | ( 2)  | ( 2)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 45    | 88    | 132   | 161   | 272   | 397 ( | 1116  |
|           | (16)  | (16)  | (16)  | (14)  | (10)  | 4)    | ( 2)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 49    | 84    | 113   | 139   | 205   | 235   | 258 ( |
|           | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | 46    | 80    | 114   | 147   | 242   | 327   | 386 ( |
|           | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 48    | 84    | 116   | 149   | 253   | 383   | 476 ( |
|           | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CONU      | *     | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | 315 ( |
|           | *37** | *66** | *89** | 110** | 118** | 142** | 3)    |
|           | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | (19)  | (15)  | (10)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | *     | *     | 107 ( | 145 ( |       |       |       |
|           | *26** | *62** | 4)    | 2)    |       |       |       |
|           | ( 4)  | ( 4)  |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | *     | *     | *     | **    | 127   | 146 ( | 217 ( |
|           | *39** | *66** | *89** | 105** | (12)  | 8)    | 4)    |
|           | (21)  | (20)  | (18)  | (16)  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 40    | 75    | 103   | 117   | 126   | 144   | 157 ( |
|           | (25)  | (23)  | (21)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 35    | 60    | 83    | 103   | 145   | 192   | 231   |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (877) | (652) | (465) | (313) |
|           | 1300) | 1152) | 1009) |       |       |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2001-2005 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Table 4. Preliminary intensity forecast evaluation (heterogeneous
sample) for Tropical Storm Emilia, 21-28 July 2006. Forecast errors (kt)
are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller
than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type.

Verification includes the depression stage.

+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| Fo     | For   |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| recast | ecast |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| Tec    | P     |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| hnique | eriod |        |        |        |       |       |       |
|        | (h)   |        |        |        |       |       |       |
+========+=======+========+========+========+=======+=======+=======+
|        | 12    | 24     | 36     | 48     | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHF5   | 7.2   | *      | *      | *      | 12.7  | 11.1  | 9.1 ( |
|        | (25)  | *8.9** | *8.2** | *7.4** | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    |
|        |       | (23)   | (21)   | (19)   |       |       |       |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI   | 6.8   | **     | 13.9   | 13.4   | 11.4  | 13.8  | 13.1  |
|        | (25)  | 10.3** | (21)   | (19)   | (15)  | (11)  | ( 7)  |
|        |       | (23)   |        |        |       |       |       |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHIP   | 7.8   | **     | **     | 14.1   | 16.9  | 18.0  | 20.6  |
|        | (24)  | 10.8** | 12.9** | (18)   | (14)  | (11)  | ( 7)  |
|        |       | (23)   | (21)   |        |       |       |       |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| DSHP   | 7.8   | **     | **     | 14.1   | 16.9  | 18.0  | 20.6  |
|        | (24)  | 10.8** | 12.9** | (18)   | (14)  | (11)  | ( 7)  |
|        |       | (23)   | (21)   |        |       |       |       |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE   | 8.1   | 12.1   | 15.3   | 14.9   | 9.8   | 10.4  | **    |
|        | (21)  | (20)   | (18)   | (16)   | (12)  | ( 8)  | 1.8** |
|        |       |        |        |        |       |       | ( 4)  |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| ICON   | 7.1   | **     | **     | **     | **    | 4.1   | 9.1 ( |
|        | (24)  | 10.2** | 12.7** | 11.8** | 5.6** | (11)  | 7)    |
|        |       | (23)   | (21)   | (18)   | (14)  |       |       |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL   | 6.6   | 11.3   | 14.3   | 12.6   | 6.7   | 4.1   | 7.9 ( |
|        | (25)  | (23)   | (21)   | (19)   | (15)  | (11)  | 7)    |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC    | 6.2   | 10.8   | 14.3   | 16.5   | 18.7  | 18.3  | 19.3  |
| Of     |       |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| ficial | \(1   | \(     | \(     | \      | \(    | \(    | \(    |
|        | 300\) | 1152\) | 1009\) | (876\) | 652\) | 465\) | 313\) |
| (200   |       |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| 1-2005 |       |        |        |        |       |       |       |
| mean)  |       |        |        |        |       |       |       |
+--------+-------+--------+--------+--------+-------+-------+-------+

Table 5. Watch and warning summary for Tropical Storm Emilia, 21-28 July
2006.

  ----------- ------------------------------ ------------------------------
  Date/Time   Action                         Location
  (UTC)                                      

  22 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch issued    Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

  23 / 1500   Tropical Storm Watch           All
              discontinued                   

  25 / 1500   Tropical Storm Watch issued    Buena Vista to Bahia Magdalena

  25 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch changed   Buena Vista to Bahia Magdalena
              to Tropical Storm Warning      

  26 / 0600   Tropical Storm Warning         Buena Vista to Bahia Magdalena
              discontinued                   

  26 / 0600   Tropical Storm Warning issued  Cabo San Lucas to Punta
                                             Eugenia

  26 / 1500   Tropical Storm Warning         Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia
              modified to                    

  26 / 2100   Tropical Storm Warning         Puerto San Andresito to Punta
              modified to                    Eugenia

  27 / 0300   Tropical Storm Warning         All
              discontinued                   
  ----------- ------------------------------ ------------------------------

![](media/image1.wmf){width="7.929166666666666in" height="6.2in"}

Figure 1. Best track positions for Tropical Storm Emilia, 21-28 July
2006.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="8.05in" height="5.498611111111111in"}

Figure 2. Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained
surface wind speed curve for Tropical

Storm Emilia, 21-28 July 2006. Objective Dvorak estimates represent
linear averages over a three-hour period centered

on the nominal observation time.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="8.05in" height="5.503472222222222in"}

Figure 3. Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central
pressure curve for Tropical Storm Emilia,

21-28 July 2006. Objective Dvorak estimates represent linear averages
over a three-hour period centered on the nominal

observation time

![](media/image4.jpeg){width="6.684027777777778in"
height="5.679861111111111in"}

Figure 4. Satellite microwave overpasses near the time of peak intensity
of Tropical Storm Emilia. A 0538 UTC 26 July 2006 TRMM image (left)
revealed a nearly-closed mid- and low-level eye feature forming, while
an AMSR-E overpass at 0939 UTC 26 July 2006 (right) showed a closed
mid-level eye had developed 4 h later. (images courtesy of the U.S. Navy
Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Command, Monterey, CA).