## Internal Dose Estimates from Global Fallout

##  

Radiation Dose to the Population of the Continental\
United States from the Ingestion of Food Contaminated with Radionuclides
from High-yield Weapons Tests Conducted by the U.S., U.K., and U.S.S.R.
between 1952 and 1963

######  {#section-1 .unnumbered}

###### Final Report {#final-report .unnumbered}

**Lynn R. Anspaugh**

**Lynn R. Anspaugh, Consulting**

**Salt Lake City, UT**

**Report to the National Cancer Institute**

**Purchase Order No. 263-MQ-008090**

**September 30, 2000**

Radiation Dose to the Population of the Continental United States from
the Ingestion of Food Contaminated with Radionuclides from Nuclear Tests
at the Nevada Test Site

**Part I. Estimates of Dose**

**Lynn R. Anspaugh**

**Lynn R. Anspaugh, Consulting**

**Salt Lake City, UT**

**Report to the National Cancer Institute**

**Purchase Order No. 263-MQ-912901**

**TABLE OF CONTENTS**

**Page H-**

[Part I. Estimates of Dose](#_Part_I.__Estimates_of_Dose) 3

[Abstract](#Abstract) 5

[Preface](#Preface) 6

[Inroduction](#Inroduction) 7

[Methods](#Methods) 10

Nuclear events of interest 10

Internal dose from ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs 10

Deposition density 11

Integrated intake 11

Dose coefficients 14

Age groups 15

Dose from ^131^I 15

Dose from ^3^H and ^14^C 16

Collective dose 18

[Results and Discussion](#Results_Discussion) 19

Doses for individuals 20

^90^Sr and ^137^Cs 20

^131^I 39

Tritium and ^14^C 43

Collective dose 44

Comparison of per caput effective doses 45

Uncertainty 46

[Conclusions](#Conclusions) 46

[References](#References) 48

[Part II. Reference and Subsidiary Information](#PartII) 50

[Comparison of calculated doses with those derived from measurements in
foodstuffs](#ComparisonofCalc) 51

[List of significant references](#ListofSignif) 54

Congressional Hearings 54

Major sources of information on radioactive contamination 54

Publications related primarily to dose or data directly relevant to dose
calculations 55

Publications related primarily to the detection or monitoring of fallout
materials 57

[Limitations of present calculations of dose from ^131^I in global
fallout](#Limitations) 68

[]{#_Part_I.__Estimates_of_Dose .anchor}**ABSTRACT**

According to a Congressional request to the Department of Health and
Human Services, a feasibility study is being conducted to study the
health consequences to the American peoples of nuclear weapons tests.
This report concerns calculations of the dose from the consumption of
food contaminated by radionuclides deposited or distributed with global
fallout, which originated from high-yield tests conducted in the
Northern Hemisphere by the U.S., the U.K. and the U.S.S.R. Such tests
were conducted in 1952--1958 and 1961--1962. Results of this part of the
feasibility study indicate that such doses can be calculated, as have
similar doses from the tests conducted at the Nevada Test Site. The
methods of calculation for ^90^Sr, ^131^I, and ^137^Cs are based upon
the methods developed and used earlier by the Off-Site Radiation
Exposure Review Project; these methods employed seasonally adjusted
values of radioecological transfer of radionuclides to humans.

For ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs, doses were calculated on a yearly basis for 1953
through 1972 for each county in the contiguous U.S. for adults and for
persons born on 1 January 1951; doses during the latter years were well
beyond the time period of the actual tests, but these long-lived
radionuclides were still being deposited from the reservoir in the
stratosphere. Doses from ^131^I were estimated only on a country-average
basis, as county-by-county deposition levels were not available; doses
from ^131^I were estimated for the 1953--1963 years. Doses from ^3^H and
^14^C were calculated with the use of specific activity models, and
calculations were carried out for the actual doses received in
1952--2000. Detailed results are provided in a CD that accompanies this
report. Summary results in the form of coded maps are provided for
^90^Sr and ^137^Cs. The total estimated collective effective dose from
the five radionuclides considered is estimated to be 66,000 person Sv;
the collective dose to the thyroid is 210,000 person Sv. The estimated
per caput effective dose is 400 µSv. These doses are somewhat smaller
than the doses previously estimated to have occurred in the contiguous
U.S. from the atmospheric tests conducted at the Nevada Test Site. The
more important radionuclides in global fallout (on an effective dose
basis) were ^14^C and ^137^Cs, whereas the dose from the Nevada tests is
dominated by ^131^I.

A comparison is made of the doses calculated with the current method
with doses that can be derived from measurements of global fallout
radionuclides in milk as reported by the U.S. Public Health Service's
Pasteurized Milk Network for the time period of 1960--1963 first
quarter. The results are in good agreement for ^90^Sr and ^131^I;
calculated results for ^137^Cs are higher than those based upon the milk
measurements, but this is expected as a substantial fraction of dose
from ^137^Cs arises from the consumption of meat.

A list is provided of major references concerning the occurrence of
global fallout and calculations of dose from these radionuclides.

The presently available calculations of dose from ^131^I in global
fallout are limited and are not available on a county-by-county basis.
Recommendations are provided on how to improve this situation by the use
of measured values of global fallout in milk, other foods, cattle
thyroids, and air.

[]{#Preface .anchor}**PREFACE**

Congress has asked the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to
study the health consequences to the American people of nuclear weapons
tests. Within that framework a purchase order has been received to
assist in the determination of radiation dose to the American people
from large atmospheric nuclear weapons tests conducted by the U.S. and
the U.K. in the Pacific and by the former U.S.S.R., primarily near the
Arctic Circle. Such doses are commonly referred to as resulting from
"global fallout."

The tasks to be performed under the terms of the purchase order are:

1.  "The primary work to be performed is to prepare crude estimates of
    the doses of internal radiation received by the American people as a
    result of the aboveground tests carried out at sites outside the
    continental U.S. including the Marshall Islands, Kazakhstan, and
    Russia. These estimates would be:

    -   "Based on a review of the readily available literature and
        information found in scientific journals and published reports;
        it is not expected that sophisticated computer models should be
        developed or used for this purpose. For the purposes of this
        assessment, an electronic database of fallout deposition will be
        provided by NCI;

    -   "Averaged over states or latitudinal bands of the continental
        U.S., with indications on how the high-risk populations could be
        identified. However, if feasible, primary calculations should be
        carried out on a county by county basis, and averaged only for
        presentation purposes;

    -   "Calculated separately for the most important radionuclides
        produced in nuclear weapons tests. These would include, but
        would not be limited to H-3, C-14, Sr-90, Cs-137, and I-131.
        Estimates of dose from Sr-90 and Cs-137 will use the deposition
        databases provided by NCI while estimates of dose from H-3 and
        C-14 will use methods published by other investigators and by
        UNSCEAR in its 1993 report as well as in previous reports.
        Estimates of dose from I-131 will also use the data provided by
        NCI, though the dose estimates to be reported will be limited to
        a nationwide collective dose estimate.

    -   "Provided in terms of absorbed doses for some of the most
        radiosensitive organs and tissues (red bone marrow,
        gastro-intestinal tract, and thyroid).

    -   "Calculated by year of testing in the 1950s and 1960s, and
        summed over the most significant tests worldwide (other than
        those tests conducted at the Nevada Test Site), with a
        comparison to the published UNSCEAR latitudinal averages for all
        tests.

    -   "Calculated for persons born on 1 January 1951 and residing
        continuously in the counties of birth. This calculation will use
        age-corrected coefficients.

2.  "For selected areas of the continental U.S. and for selected years
    of fallout, compare the internal dose estimates calculated in item 1
    for Sr-90, Cs-137, and I-131 with those derived from the
    measurements of fallout radionuclides in foodstuffs.

3.  "Provide a list of the most significant references regarding: (1)
    the networks of measurements of fallout radionuclides in air and
    foodstuffs, and (2) the assessment of the doses from internal
    radiation.

4.  "The report to be provided shall discuss limitations on presently
    calculating county-specific dose estimates from global sources of
    I-131 and shall discuss feasibility for future work and methods that
    might be implemented in such work."

The funds made available to accomplish this work consisted of \$24,900.
Thus, it was necessary to find very efficient means to accomplish this
complex task.

[]{#Inroduction .anchor}**INTRODUCTION**

In previous reports (Anspaugh 2000; Beck 1999) doses were estimated for
the 48 contiguous states from fallout derived from the tests of nuclear
weapons-related devices at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Results in Beck
(1999) were for external exposure and dose, and results in Anspaugh
(2000) were for doses from the ingestion of contaminated foods. The
latter report was based upon estimates of deposition density as
calculated by Beck (1999) for 19 radionuclides. These radionuclides were
selected for analysis on the basis of screening calculations that had
been performed previously by Ng et al. (1990) for the Off-Site Radiation
Exposure Review Project (ORERP); these screening calculations indicated
that 21 radionuclides were estimated to be responsible for about 95% of
the total dose from the ingestion pathway for the radionuclides released
at the NTS. Doses were not calculated in Anspaugh (2000) for two (^135^I
and ^239^Np) of the 21 radionuclides, as estimates of deposition density
were not available[^1] at the time when the calculations were made. Most
of the 19 radionuclides had relatively short half lives, but were more
important in a dosimetric sense than the long-lived radionuclides due to
the rapid entry of local and regional fallout into food chains.

For global fallout the radionuclides of concern are different for
several reasons. The first is that global fallout by definition consists
of radioactive debris that is globally dispersed due to its injection
into the high atmosphere by large explosions. Due to its injection at
high altitudes, global fallout typically does not return to earth for
one or more years. During this time the short-lived fission products
decay to small levels, and, except for unusual occurrences, the
short-lived radionuclides of interest for NTS fallout are not of
concern. Two radionuclides, ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs, have long half lives
(about 30 y each) and do not decay appreciably before they return to
earth. Historically, these radionuclides have been studied extensively
due to their presence in global fallout and due to concern about adverse
health effects from the ingestion of these two radionuclides.

Another factor of importance is that global fallout originates from
high-yield weapons that typically derive much of their yield from fusion
reactions. These explosions produce or "spill" large amounts of ^3^H,
and the intense neutron flux also produces large amounts of ^14^C
through the reaction ^14^N(n,p)^14^C. Because ^3^H and ^14^C enter their
respective hydrogen and carbon cycles and do not deposit in the same
manner as do radionuclides associated with particulate matter, the usual
methods of calculating deposition and dose are not appropriate; rather
the specific activity approach has been used (UNSCEAR 1993). In order to
calculate the dose from ^3^H and ^14^C, it is necessary to derive source
terms (the activity created per unit fusion-explosion energy) and to
estimate the fusion yields as a function of time. In general there is
little movement of radionuclides across the hemispheric boundary, so it
is also important to know the fusion yield in the northern hemisphere
for this assessment. Most of the fusion yields occurred in the northern
hemisphere, but with substantial amounts near the equator. The
conservative assumption is made here that the resulting radionuclides
remained in the northern hemisphere.

The fusion yields estimated to have occurred in the northern hemisphere
as a function of time are indicated in Table 1. These values were
derived from total yield values reported in UNSCEAR (1993), DOE (1994),
and Mikhailov et al. (1996); and with subtraction of the fission yields
derived by Beck (2000).

Due to widespread concern about global fallout and its effects on man,
scientists from many countries have studied fallout beginning in the
1950s. Such concern was a primary reason that led to the formation of
the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic
Radiation (UNSCEAR), which has studied global fallout over many years
and has issued a number of assessments of dose with primary interest on
calculating global averages of dose. In its most recent assessment of
global-fallout dose the UNSCEAR (1993) provided the estimates indicated
in Table 2 of the doses from the ingestion of food contaminated by
global fallout.

Table 1. Estimated fusion yields exploded in the northern hemisphere as
a function of time. Values are estimated from total yields in UNSCEAR
(1993), DOE (1994), and Mikhailov et al. (1996); minus the fission
yields estimated by Beck (2000). Explosions close to the equator are
conservatively considered to have injected their debris into the
northern hemisphere only.

  --------------------------------- -------------------------------------
  Year                              Fusion yield,

                                    megatons

  1952                              5.0

  1953                              0.36

  1954                              17

  1955                              0.88

  1956                              13

  1957                              3.9

  1958                              31

  1959                              0

  1960                              0

  1961                              69

  1962                              99

  Total                             240
  --------------------------------- -------------------------------------

Table 2. Effective dose commitments estimated by UNSCEAR (1993) for the
northern temperate zone (40°−50° latitude) from radionuclides produced
by the testing in the atmosphere of large nuclear weapons. Estimates
below are for "global" fallout and arise primarily from the injection of
radionuclides into the upper atmosphere of the northern hemisphere.

  --------------------------- -------------------------------------------
  Radionuclide                Dose commitment, μSv

  ^3^H                        48

  ^14^C                       78^a^

  ^55^Fe                      14

  ^89^Sr                      2.3

  ^90^Sr                      170

  ^131^I                      79

  ^137^Cs                     280

  ^140^Ba                     0.42

  ^238^Pu                     0.0009

  ^239+240^Pu                 0.50

  ^241^Pu                     0.004

  ^241^Am                     1.5

  Sum                         670
  --------------------------- -------------------------------------------

> ^a^ The UNSCEAR (1993) value of 2600 μSv over all time was multiplied
> by a factor of 0.03, the portion estimated to be delivered in 50−70 y.

On the basis of the data in Table 2, and in accordance with the
requirements for the purchase order, the radionuclides selected for
examination during this feasibility study include ^3^H, ^14^C, ^90^Sr,
^131^I, and ^137^Cs. These radionuclides account for all but a small
fraction of the estimated dose to man from global fallout. The
prominence of ^131^I on the list may be surprising, as its half life is
only eight days. The appearance of ^131^I in global fallout has tended
to be sporadic, but contaminated milk in the U.S. had been observed on a
number of occasions (e.g., Dahl et al. 1963; Terrill et al. 1963).
Possible mechanisms for these sporadic occurrences have been suggested
by Machta (1963) and include

-   The subsidence of large air masses contaminated with debris from
    U.S.S.R. tests at its Novaya Zemlya site near the Arctic Circle, and

-   The penetration of large thunder storms into the upper troposphere
    and stratosphere that resulted in the scavenging of fresh debris
    from the U.S. tests in the Pacific.

The assessment of dose from ^14^C is particularly difficult, due to its
long half life of 5730 y. The UNSCEAR (1993) has assessed the
intergenerational dose due to this radionuclide, and under such
considerations it is the most significant radionuclide in global
fallout. The relative importance of ^14^C is much less, if the dose
during the first 50−70 y is considered. Further, the carbon cycle is
complex (as evidenced by the current controversy over global warming due
to the release of carbon dioxide), and dose assessments must rely on
complicated models. Thus, the projections of dose into the future for
this radionuclide are only approximate, but estimates of dose through
the present time are firmly based upon measurements of ^14^C in food,
water, and humans.

Estimates of dose from ^3^H are considered to be more reliable, as this
radionuclide has a much shorter half life of 12 y, and the hydrogen
cycle is not as complicated as that of carbon. As for ^14^C, estimates
of dose through the present time are firmly based upon measurements of
^3^H in food, water, and humans.

The purpose of this report is to fulfill the requirements of the
purchase order referenced in the Preface. The estimates of dose (Task 1)
from global fallout for the radionuclides indicated above are summarized
in Part I of this report, as are the methods used to perform the
calculations. An accompanying CD-ROM contains the detailed results of
the calculations on a county-by-county basis for ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs;
more details of the results for ^3^H, ^14^C, and ^131^I are also
provided on the CD, but results for these radionuclides are available
only as averages over the continental U.S. Part II of this report
contains all other information requested (Tasks 2, 3, and 4).

**METHODS**

The methods of dose calculation used in this report for ^90^Sr, ^131^I,
and ^137^Cs are similar to those used previously for the calculations of
dose from tests at the NTS (Anspaugh 2000). The specific activity
approach is used to calculate doses from ^3^H and ^14^C; the methods
used for ^3^H and ^14^C are similar to those used by the UNSCEAR (1993).

**Nuclear events of interest**

This report includes doses from all high-yield nuclear events that took
place within the northern hemisphere during the years from 1952 through
1963; such tests were stopped in 1963 by the U.S., the U.K., and the
U.S.S.R. Tests at the NTS are not included in this report, as such tests
were not high-yield, and doses from the ingestion of contaminated foods
from NTS tests have been included in a previous assessment (Anspaugh
2000).

Because tests of high-yield weapons inject much of their debris into the
stratosphere from which it devolves slowly over time, it is not
generally possible to identify global fallout with a particular test.
Rather, doses have been calculated on a monthly basis for ^90^Sr,
^131^I, and ^137^Cs and on a yearly basis for ^3^H and ^14^C.

**Internal dose from ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs**

Doses from ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs were estimated by a process similar to
that used for radionuclides from NTS fallout (Anspaugh 2000). The basic
calculation is shown in equation (1):

  ----------------------------------------------------------------- -------
  $D = P \times I \times F_{g}$,                                    \(1\)

  ----------------------------------------------------------------- -------

where *D* = Absorbed dose, Gy, or equivalent/effective dose, Sv;

*P* = Deposition density of the radionuclide of interest at time of
fallout arrival, Bq m^-2^;

*I* = Integrated intake by ingestion of the radionuclide per unit
deposition,\
Bq per Bq m^-2^; and

*F~g~* = Ingestion-dose coefficient for the radionuclide, Gy Bq^-1^ or
Sv Bq^-1^.

**Deposition density.** Values of deposition density, *P*, for ^90^Sr
were furnished by Beck (2000) on behalf of the National Cancer Institute
(NCI) on a county-by-county basis averaged over each month for the years
of 1953 through 1972.[^2] Values for the deposition density for ^137^Cs
were derived from those of ^90^Sr by multiplying the ^90^Sr results by a
factor of 1.5, as recommended by Beck (2000) \[a similar relationship
has been used by UNSCEAR (1993)\].

**Integrated intake.** Monthly average values of integrated intake, *I,*
were derived from Whicker and Kirchner (1987) by interpolation of the
date-specific values in that publication. The age-related values used in
this study are shown in Figs. 1 and 2 for ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs,
respectively.

Values of integrated intake are complex functions of age- and
season-dependent intake rates of different foods and the
season-dependent radioecological movement of radionuclides through food
chains. Whicker and Kirchner (1987) developed the PATHWAY model to
estimate integrated intake for the ORERP studies. The food-consumption
rates used in the

![](media/image1.wmf){width="6.502083333333333in"
height="2.957638888888889in"}

Fig. 1. Monthly average values of integrated intake of ^90^S for four
age groups.\
Data were derived from Whicker and Kirchner (1987).

![](media/image2.wmf){width="6.502083333333333in"
height="2.973611111111111in"}

Fig. 2. Monthly average values of integrated intake of ^137^Cs for four
age groups.\
Data were derived from Whicker and Kirchner (1987).

PATHWAY model are shown in Table 3. The fractions of different food
types that are assumed to be locally produced are indicated in Fig. 3,
and the consumed fraction of non-leafy vegetables and fruits assumed to
be freshly produced is shown in Fig. 4.

The radioecological component of PATHWAY is complex and includes many
factors:

-   Initial retention of radionuclides by vegetation;

-   Loss of radionuclides from vegetation as a function of time;

Table 3. Food-consumption rates used in the PATHWAY code (Whicker and
Kirchner 1987). Estimates are based primarily on data summarized by Rupp
(1980) for rural families.

  ----------------------- ------------------ ----------- ----------- -----------
  Food type               Food-consumption                           
                          rates by age                               
                          group, fresh kg                            
                          day^-1^                                    

                          \<1 y              1−11 y      12−18 y     ≥19 y

  Milk                    0.800              0.623       0.635       0.360

  Milk products           0.144              0.074       0.143       0.062

  Beef                    0.044              0.113       0.210       0.277

  Poultry                 0.003              0.017       0.028       0.030

  Eggs                    0.017              0.026       0.036       0.053

  Leafy vegetables        0.002              0.021       0.036       0.062

  Stored fruits and       0.207              0.266       0.356       0.360
  vegetables                                                         

  Grains                  0.025              0.025       0.151       0.137
  ----------------------- ------------------ ----------- ----------- -----------

![](media/image3.wmf){width="6.4944444444444445in"
height="3.379166666666667in"}

Fig. 3. Fraction of food that is assumed to be locally produced for
several different food categories. Values for eggs are the same as those
for milk. From Whicker and Kirchner (1987).

![](media/image4.wmf){width="6.4944444444444445in"
height="3.379166666666667in"}

Fig. 4. Consumed fraction of non-leafy vegetables and fruits assumed to
be freshly produced. From Whicker and Kirchner (1987).

-   Dilution of radionuclide concentration in fresh vegetation by plant
    growth;

-   Movement of radionuclides through several soil compartments;

-   Uptake of a radionuclide through the soil-root system; and

-   Recontamination of plant surfaces by resuspension and redeposition
    and by rain splash.

One of the critical factors that is known to vary substantially is the
initial retention of fallout by fresh vegetation, particularly when
deposition occurs with precipitation (Anspaugh 1987; NCI 1997). The
value used for this parameter in PATHWAY is 0.39 m^2^ kg^-1^. Its value
is known to vary with particle size (and distance from the site of
detonation) for dry deposition and with rainfall rate for wet
deposition. In addition, values vary substantially for reasons that are
not yet explicable. Thus, uncertainty in this parameter contributes
substantially to the uncertainty in the estimates of internal dose.

Although the values of integrated intake were originally derived for dry
deposition in the semi-arid western areas of the U.S. nearby the NTS,
this same value has been used for the entire study performed here. Based
upon the experimental data reported by Hoffman et al. (1989), the value
of 0.39 m^2^ kg^-1^ is actually a reasonable value for retention of
radionuclides in rainfall, except during conditions of very light rain
when higher values have been observed.

**Dose coefficients.** The ICRP (1989, 1993, 1995, 1996) has provided
compilations of dose coefficients, *F~g~*, for ingestion of
radionuclides by members of the general public. These published values,
however, are incomplete in the sense that dose coefficients are not
listed for all organs for all age groups. Recently, the ICRP (1998) has
made available a CD-ROM system that allows the calculation of equivalent
and effective doses for all organs for the six age groups[^3] considered
by the ICRP. The dose-coefficient values provided by the ICRP represent
the dose from a given intake that will occur over the next 50 years for
adults or until age 70 y for the younger age groups; such values are
commonly referred to as coefficients of committed dose.

ICRP (1998) is the source of dose coefficients used for this dose
assessment. As for previously performed assessments (Ng et al. 1990),
the ICRP dose coefficients have been considered to be average values (or
arithmetic means). For the assessment for doses from tests at the NTS
(Anspaugh 2000), the ICRP coefficients were converted to geometric
means, so that uncertainties could be propagated in a consistent manner.
As the deposition-density values provided by Beck (2000) for global
fallout do not have attached uncertainty values, the dose coefficients
used for this assessment have been used directly from ICRP (1998). The
dose coefficients used in this study are indicated in Table 4.

For ^90^Sr, dose coefficients for the unlisted organs are essentially
the same as the dose coefficient for the thyroid; as ^90^Sr (and its
progeny) is a "pure" beta-emitting radionuclide that

localizes in the bone, the higher doses are to the bone marrow and to
the bone surface. The dose coefficient for ^90^Sr is also somewhat
higher for the colon, due to the transit of the beta emitter. On the
other hand, ^137^Cs is distributed throughout the body and delivers most
of its dose from the emission of a gamma ray by its short-lived progeny
^137m^Ba. Thus, while dose coefficients for ^137^Cs for the colon are
nearly twice as high as the effective dose coefficient, the dose
coefficients for the unlisted organs are approximately the same as the
effective dose coefficient.

Table 4. Age-dependent dose coefficients for members of the public used
in this study for\
^90^Sr and ^131^I. Values are from ICRP (1998)

  ---------- -------------- ---------- --------- --------- ----------- --------- -----------
  ICRP\      Dose                                                                
  age        coefficient                                                         
  category   for the                                                             
             indicated                                                           
             radionuclide                                                        
             and organ, Sv                                                       
             Bq^-1^                                                              

             ^90^Sr         ^90^Sr     ^90^Sr    ^90^Sr    ^90^Sr      ^137^Cs   ^137^Cs

             Bone Sur^a^    Colon^b^   Red       Thyroid   Effective   Colon     Effective
                                       marr^c^                                   

  3 mo       2.3 × 10^-6^   1.2 ×      1.5 ×     1.2 ×     2.3 ×       3.8 ×     2.1 ×
                            10^-7^     10^-6^    10^-8^    10^-7^      10^-8^    10^-8^

  1 y        7.3 × 10^-7^   8.9 ×      4.2 ×     5.5 ×     7.3 ×       2.3 ×     1.2 ×
                            10^-8^     10^-7^    10^-9^    10^-8^      10^-8^    10^-8^

  5 y        6.3 × 10^-7^   4.5 ×      2.7 ×     2.9 ×     4.7 ×       1.5 ×     9.6 ×
                            10^-8^     10^-7^    10^-9^    10^-8^      10^-8^    10^-9^

  10 y       1.0 × 10^-6^   2.6 ×      3.7 ×     1.8 ×     6.0 ×       1.3 ×     1.0 ×
                            10^-8^     10^-7^    10^-9^    10^-8^      10^-8^    10^-8^

  15 y       1.8 × 10^-6^   1.5 ×      4.9 ×     1.1 ×     8.0 ×       1.5 ×     1.3 ×
                            10^-8^     10^-7^    10^-9^    10^-8^      10^-8^    10^-8^

  Adult      4.1 × 10^-7^   1.3 ×      1.8 ×     6.6 ×     2.8 ×       1.5 ×     1.3 ×
                            10^-8^     10^-7^    10^-10^   10^-8^      10^-8^    10^-8^
  ---------- -------------- ---------- --------- --------- ----------- --------- -----------

^a^ Bone surface

^b^ Weighted mass average of dose coefficients for the lower and upper
large intestine

^c^ Red bone marrow

**Age groups.** Doses were calculated on a county-by-county basis for
adults and for an individual who was born on 1 January 1951.

**Dose from ^131^I**

For ^131^I calculations were also based on eqn (1). Beck (2000) did not
provide county-by-county estimates of deposition density for ^131^I, as
more analysis would be required beyond that possible for this
feasibility study. Rather, rough estimates of deposition density were
provided on a population-weighted basis for the entire country. As for
^90^Sr and ^137^Cs, monthly averages of age-dependent integrated intake
values were derived from Whicker and Kirchner (1987). The values used in
this study are shown in Fig. 5. Dose coefficients were taken from the
ICRP (1998); the values used are listed in Table 5. Calculations were
made for adults and for individuals born on 1 January in each of the
years from 1951 through 1963. In addition, because the dose from
ingestion of ^131^I varies strongly with age, per caput values of dose
were calculating by considering the age distribution of the population
in 1960 and by calculating a population-weighted average value of dose.
For the latter calculation, age-dependent values of integrated intake
and dose coefficients were used.

![](media/image5.wmf){width="4.409722222222222in"
height="2.423611111111111in"}

Fig. 5. Monthly average values of integrated intake for four age groups
for ^131^I.\
Data were derived from Whicker and Kirchner (1987).

Table 5. Age-dependent dose coefficients for ^131^I used in this study
for members of the public.\
Values are from ICRP (1998)

  ----------- ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  ICRP age    Dose                                              
  category    coefficient                                       
              for ^131^I                                        
              for the                                           
              indicated                                         
              organ, Sv                                         
              Bq^-1^                                            

              Bone surface  Colon       Red marrow  Thyroid     Effective

  3 mo        6.1 × 10^-10^ 2.6 ×       5.2 ×       3.7 ×       1.8 ×
                            10^-9^      10^-10^     10^-6^      10^-7^

  1 y         4.4 × 10^-10^ 1.5 ×       3.7 ×       3.6 ×       1.8 ×
                            10^-9^      10^-10^     10^-6^      10^-7^

  5 y         2.8 × 10^-10^ 6.5 ×       2.2 ×       2.1 ×       1.0 ×
                            10^-10^     10^-10^     10^-6^      10^-7^

  10 y        1.9 × 10^-10^ 2.8 ×       1.6 ×       1.0 ×       5.2 ×
                            10^-10^     10^-10^     10^-6^      10^-8^

  15 y        1.4 × 10^-10^ 1.5 ×       1.2 ×       6.8 ×       3.4 ×
                            10^-10^     10^-10^     10^-7^      10^-8^

  Adult       1.3 × 10^-10^ 1.2 ×       1.0 ×       4.3 ×       2.2 ×
                            10^-10^     10^-10^     10^-7^      10^-8^
  ----------- ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

**Dose from ^3^H and ^14^C**

Doses for these two globally dispersed radionuclides were calculated on
the basis of the specific activity approach. As the fusion yield in the
northern hemisphere is an important input to the calculation for both
radionuclides, the data shown in Table 1 were used as input values.
Another important input is the amount of ^3^H and ^14^C created per Mt
of fusion. UNSCEAR (1993) gives a value of 740 PBq Mt^-1^ for ^3^H; a
reasonable estimate for ^14^C is 0.85 PBq Mt^-1^.

Doses from ^3^H were calculated with use of the NCRP (1979) model; a
rough estimate can also be made on the basis of the estimated natural
production rate of 37 PBq per y per hemisphere and the measured
concentrations of ^3^H in surface waters. The annual absorbed dose in
tissue from naturally occurring ^3^H was derived in UNSCEAR (1982) to be
10 nSv. Based upon these values a rough estimate of the average dose
commitment from ^3^H is

  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------
  $\text{240}\ \text{Mt} \times \text{740}\frac{\text{PBq}}{\text{Mt}} \times \text{10}\frac{\text{nSv}}{y} \times \frac{1}{\text{37}}\frac{y}{\text{PBq}} = \text{48},\text{000}\ \text{nSv}$ . \(2\)

  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------

However, this result does not provide any information on how this dose
might be delivered over time. Use of the NCRP (1979) model provides a
more sophisticated approach that simulates the world's hydrological
cycle through the use of seven compartments, which consist of
atmospheric water, surface soil water, deep groundwater, surface streams
and fresh water lakes, saline lakes and inland seas, ocean surface, and
the deep ocean. The use of the hydrological cycle is appropriate, as
most of the ^3^H released is in the form of tritiated water or is soon
converted to that form (from HT) in soil. Calculations are then made by
considering the specific activity of ^3^H in the various water
compartments and the rate of change among the compartments.

Example results from the NCRP (1976) model of the dose over time from
the release of 1 PBq of ^3^H to the northern hemisphere are shown in
Fig. 6. The annual dose falls off rapidly with time due to the mixing of
the released ^3^H into the larger compartments. The summary result of
the data shown in Fig. 6 is that the release of 1 PBq of ^3^H to the
atmosphere in the northern hemisphere would result in a dose of 0.38 nSv
to each person living in the hemisphere. The latter result is consistent
with the value computed from eqn (2) of 0.27 nSv with consideration of
the substantial uncertainty in both results.

The dose from the release of ^14^C can be assessed in a rather similar
way, although the carbon cycle is much more complicated. From UNSCEAR
(1982, 1993) the natural production rate of ^14^C is roughly 1 PBq
y^-1^, and the resulting equilibrium specific activity produces an
annual effective dose of about 12 µSv. A calculation similar to that of
eqn (2) could be made, but it would be potentially misleading due to the
very long half life of ^14^C and the very long time (more than one
individual's life time) to achieve equilibrium. Thus, in order to
calculate doses over the first 50 y from the release of ^14^C, a
compartment model for the global circulation of carbon was used. The
model chosen is that of Titley et al. (1995), which is the latest model
that has been widely accepted and which builds upon previously accepted
models. The Titley et al. model is complicated and contains 23
compartments with separate compartments of two to four layers in each
ocean. Carbon is considered to be in the form of CO~2~, which is the
form that enters the food chain. The model takes into account
temperature changes, photosynthesis in the surface layers of the oceans,
and transfer of carbon down the water column.

Example results of model calculations are shown in Fig. 7, which is a
plot showing the annual doses from the release of 1 PBq of ^14^C to the
northern hemisphere. The summary result of the data shown in Fig. 7 is
that the release of 1 PBq of ^14^C to the atmosphere of the northern
hemisphere would result in a dose of 0.7 µSv to each person living in
the hemisphere over the following 50 y.

![](media/image6.wmf){width="6.502083333333333in"
height="4.347222222222222in"}

Fig. 6. Annual dose as a function of time following the release of 1 PBq
of ^3^H to the atmosphere of the northern hemisphere. Results are based
upon the NCRP (1979) model of tritium in the hydrological cycle.

These model results for ^3^H and ^14^C are approximate, and no attempt
has been made to derive age-dependent values. This is broadly
appropriate for these two radionuclides and any other beta-emitting
radionuclide that can be assessed using a specific activity approach.
Also, as both radionuclides are distributed throughout the body, all
organ and effective dose coefficients are presumed to be numerically
equal.

**Collective dose**

Collective doses were also calculated. For ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs for which
results were available on a county-by-county basis, the adult dose for
each county was multiplied by its 1954 population with data supplied by
Beck (2000) to give a county specific collective dose for each year
(1953--1972). The use of adult doses for this calculation tends to
underestimate the true collective dose; however, for ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs
this effect is not as significant as it is for ^131^I. Collective doses
for each county were also summed to give a collective dose for each
year. Finally, doses for all years were also summed to give the total
collective dose to the 48 contiguous states.

![](media/image7.wmf){width="6.502083333333333in"
height="4.347222222222222in"}

Fig. 7. Annual effective dose following the release of 1 PBq of ^14^C to
the atmosphere of the northern hemisphere. Results are based upon the
model of Titley et al. (1995).

For ^131^I deposition values were not available on a county-by-county
basis, but on a population-weighted basis for the entire country.
Collective doses were calculated by using the same procedure as
mentioned in a previous section for per caput doses. That is,
calculations were made with consideration of the age distribution of the
population and appropriate values of age-dependent integrated intake and
dose coefficient.

For ^3^H and ^14^C rough estimates of individual doses were calculated
on a country-average basis; such values do not have an age dependence.
Collective doses were calculated by simply multiplying the individual
doses for the country by the country population in 1954.

[]{#Results_Discussion .anchor}**RESULTS AND DISCUSSION**

The results of the calculations made for this project are provided on a
CD that accompanies this report. Information on the CD is organized as
follows:

-   There is one folder labeled "SrCs" that contains 21 workbooks; 20
    are labeled GB1953 through GB1972 and one is labeled GB53-72, which
    is a summary of the doses for the 20-y period. Each of the 20
    workbooks for individual years contains two spreadsheets; the first
    is labeled "Sheet1" and contains county-by-county data for estimates
    of committed dose from ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs. Values are provided both
    for "adults" and for a person born on 1 January 1951. For ^90^Sr
    estimates are provided for bone surface, colon, red marrow, thyroid,
    and effective dose; for ^137^Cs estimates are provided for colon and
    effective doses. The second spreadsheet is labeled "Collective" and
    contains calculated values for collective dose on a county-by-county
    basis. In addition to data for the parameters indicated above, the
    sum of collective effective dose from both ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs is
    calculated. The summary workbook "GB53-72" contains similar data in
    two spreadsheets, but summarized over the entire period of the
    calculation.

-   There is one spreadsheet labeled "GBLI131" that contains all
    calculations for dose from global fallout due to ^131^I.
    Calculations are provided for bone surface, colon, red marrow,
    thyroid, and effective dose for adults and for persons born on 1
    January in the years 1951 through 1963. Collective doses and per
    caput doses are provided on the same spreadsheet; such calculations
    were made using the fraction of the population falling into various
    age groups and appropriate values of age-dependent integrated intake
    and dose coefficient.

-   A final spreadsheet is labeled "TritCarb" and contains estimates of
    dose for ^3^H and ^14^C. Doses are estimated on the basis of the
    inputs of fission yield from Table 1 and the time dependent annual
    dose factors from Figs. 6 and 7. Each year's input is tracked
    separately and summed for each individual year. The calculations
    extend through the year 2000.

The intent of the following material is to summarize the data contained
on the CD in the files mentioned above.

**Doses for individuals**

**^90^Sr and ^137^Cs.** Estimates of committed dose are available on the
CD-ROM for each county in the contiguous U.S.; values are provided for
adults and for a person born on 1 January 1951. For ^90^Sr estimates are
given for dose to the bone surface, colon, red marrow, and thyroid and
for effective dose. For ^137^Cs estimates are given for dose to the
colon and for effective dose. Reasons for the selections of these organs
are discussed in the Methods Section. Such large amounts of data are
more easily summarized graphically. Figs. 8--23 provide representative
results for three years[^4] and the sum of committed doses for the
entire 1953--1972 period. Figs. 8--11 are results for the 1955 year.
Figs. 8 and 9 present doses to the red bone marrow from ^90^Sr for an
adult and for a person born on 1 January 1951. Figs. 10 and 11 present
effective doses from ^137^Cs for an adult and for a person born on 1
January 1951. This pattern is repeated for the years of 1959 and 1963;
the doses were the highest for the latter year. Finally, Figs. 20--23
present doses for the two age groups to the red bone marrow from ^90^Sr
and effective dose from ^137^Cs that are summed over the entire period
of calculation (1953--1972).

The appearance of the maps in Figs. 8--23 is influenced by the choice of
the dose ranges used for the display. There are five dose ranges used
for each map, and these dose ranges were selected in the following way
with Figs. 8 and 9 used as illustrations. First, all of the data for the
committed dose to the selected organ (or effective dose) for the
selected radionuclide for the 3071 counties for both the adult and the
person born on 1 January 1951 were combined into a single file and
sorted. For Figs. 8 and 9 this combined file represented the committed
doses to the red bone marrow from ^90^Sr for the adult and for the
person born on 1 January 1951 for all 3071 counties. Then, 10% of the
6142 combined sorted doses were assigned the color blue (lower doses)
for each map, 25% green, 30% yellow, 25% orange, and 10% red (higher
doses). Examination of Figs 8 and 9 indicates several features.

First, it is clear that the higher committed doses from ^90^Sr occurred
to persons living in the eastern third of the country, although there
are also "hot spots" in the Midwest, and in parts of California, Idaho,
Oregon, and Washington. These areas of higher committed dose are related
primarily to the amounts of rainfall that occurred in these locations.
Second, comparison of the two figures indicates that a person born on 1
January 1951 received higher committed doses than a person who was an
adult, although these doses are not greatly different. For Figs. 10 and
11 the same technique was used, except that committed effective doses
due to ^137^Cs are plotted. The same geographical pattern is evident,
but in this case the dose to the person born on 1 January 1951 is lower
than to the adult. Whether doses are higher or lower for a particular
age group depends upon 1) the time of year when the fallout occurred,
which in turn affects 2) the relative values of the age-dependent
integrated intakes \[see Figs. 1 and 2\], and 3) the values of the
age-dependent dose coefficients \[Table 4\].

The per caput doses over the entire period of analysis are summarized in
Table 6 for adults and for a person born on 1 January 1951. In general,
the doses calculated for a person born in 1951 from ^90^Sr are two-three
times higher than for the adult, but the doses from ^137^Cs are
essentially the same for the two age groups. The sum of effective doses
from ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs is 170 μSv for the adult and 210 μSv for the
person born in 1951.

![](media/image8.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.582638888888889in"}

Fig. 8. Map of the committed dose (mSv) for an adult to the red bone
marrow from ^90^Sr deposited during 1955

![](media/image9.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 9. Map of the committed dose (mSv) for a person born in 1951 to the
red bone marrow from ^90^Sr deposited during 1955.

![](media/image10.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 10. Map of the committed effective dose (mSv) for an adult from
^137^Cs deposited during 1955*.*

![](media/image11.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 11. Map of the committed effective dose (mSv) for a person born in
1951 from ^137^Cs deposited during 1955.

![](media/image12.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 12. Map of the committed dose (mSv) for an adult to the red bone
marrow from ^90^Sr deposited during 1959.

![](media/image13.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 13. Map of the committed dose (mSv) for a person born in 1951 to
the red bone marrow from ^90^Sr deposited during 1959.

![](media/image14.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 14. Map of the committed effective dose (mSv) for an adult from
^137^Cs deposited during 1959.

![](media/image15.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 15. Map of the committed effective dose (mSv) for a person born in
1951 from ^137^Cs deposited during 1959.

![](media/image16.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 16. Map of the committed dose (mSv) for an adult to the red bone
marrow from ^90^Sr deposited during 1963*.*

![](media/image17.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 17. Map of the committed dose (mSv) for a person born in 1951 to
the red bone marrow from ^90^Sr deposited during 1963.

![](media/image18.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 18. Map of the committed effective dose (mSv) for an adult from
^137^Cs deposited during 1963.

![](media/image19.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 19. Map of the committed effective dose (mSv) for a person born in
1951 from ^137^Cs deposited during 1963.

![](media/image20.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 20. Map of the committed dose (mSv) for an adult to the red bone
marrow from ^90^Sr deposited during 1953-1972.

![](media/image21.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 21. Map of the committed dose (mSv) for a person born in 1951 to
the red bone marrow from ^90^Sr deposited during 1953-1972*.*

![](media/image22.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.5875in"}

Fig. 22. Map of the committed effective dose (mSv) for an adult from
^137^Cs deposited during 1953-1972.

![](media/image23.wmf){width="9.0in" height="5.571527777777778in"}

Fig. 23. Map of the committed effective dose (mSv) for a person born in
1951 from ^137^Cs deposited during 1953-1972.

Table 6. Total per caput doses calculated for the 1953--1972 period from
the deposition of ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs in global fallout. Upper values are
for adults; lower values are for a person born on 1 January 1951. Values
are averaged over the entire U.S*.*

  -------------- ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  Radionuclide   Individual                                       
                 organ or                                         
                 effective                                        
                 committed                                        
                 dose, μSv                                        

                 Bone surface Colon       Red marrow  Thyroid     Effective

                 Adult                                            

  ^90^Sr         540          17          240         0.86        37

  ^137^Cs                     160                                 130

                 Person born                                      
                 on 1 January                                     
                 1951                                             

  ^90^Sr         1600         34          530         2.3         87

  ^137^Cs                     160                                 120
  -------------- ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

Another way of examining the committed doses for individuals is to look
at the sum of effective doses from ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs on a
county-by-county basis. Such values can be summed for each county over
the entire period of 1953--1972. When this is done, the resulting
highest dose of 380 μSv is found in Alpine County, California, and the
lowest dose of 6.8 μSv occurred in Imperial County, California, a range
of a factor of nearly 60. It is rather surprising that both the lowest
and the highest doses occurred in the same state; however, the two
counties differ markedly. Alpine County is in the Sierra Nevada
Mountains and experiences a high amount of precipitation. Imperial
County borders on Mexico and is shadowed by the mountains east of
San Diego. Thus, it receives very little precipitation. A list of the 80
counties with the higher estimates of summed committed effective doses
is given in Table 7.

One of the interesting features of Table 7 is that there are many
counties with essentially the same estimated dose---this is to be
expected given that global fallout is rather evenly dispersed and that
the amount of annual precipitation is the most important factor in
determining the amount of global fallout deposited in any one county.
Another interesting feature is that the state with the highest number of
counties in Table 7 is Iowa (22) followed by Tennessee (14) and North
Carolina (11).

Counties with the lower estimates of dose are listed in Table 8. Again,
it is noted that there is a large number of counties with essentially
equal doses, which are lower than those in Table 7 due primarily to the
low amounts of annual precipitation in these counties. The state with
the highest number of occurrences in Table 8 is Texas (29) followed by
California (12) and Washington (9). Three states--California, Oregon,
and Utah--contain counties that occur on both lists. This is due to the
highly diverse climatic conditions found in these three states.

Fig. 24 is a plot of the country-average sum of committed effective dose
from ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs as a function of time for two age cohorts:
adults in 1951 and those born on 1 January 1951. The influence of
changing intake rates and dose coefficients with age is seen. The
relative position of the two curves changes as the person born in 1951
ages and is assigned different intake rates and dose coefficients.

**^131^I.** As mentioned above, it was not possible for Beck (2000) to
provide estimates of ^131^I deposition on a county-by-county basis for
this feasibility study. Rather, estimates of deposition through time
were provided as country-average values. Because the dose from ingestion
of ^131^I is strongly age dependent, dose estimates were calculated for
adults and for persons born on 1 January of each of the years 1951
through 1963. The calculations of dose from ^131^I were not extended
through 1972, as was done for ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs; this is because
testing ended in 1963, and ^131^I is too short-lived to contribute to
doses in the later years. All doses from the ingestion of ^131^I were
estimated on the basis of age- and season-dependent intake factors and
age-dependent dose coefficients.

Table 7. Counties with higher estimates of total individual effective
dose from ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs.

  ------- ----------------- ---------- --- ------- ----------------- ----------
  State   County            Dose, μSv      State   County            Dose, μSv

  CA      Alpine            380            TN      Bradley           260

  SD      Lawrence          350            IA      Black Hawk        260

  CA      Tuolumne          350            IA      Linn              250

  NC      Transylvania      320            SD      Custer            250

  ID      Valley            310            NE      McPherson         250

  CA      Mariposa          310            IA      Dallas            250

  NC      Richmond          290            UT      Weber             250

  NC      Polk              280            NC      Yancey            250

  ID      Adams             280            IA      Marshall          250

  NC      Macon             280            IA      Delaware          250

  NC      Clay              280            IA      Lucas             250

  SD      Pennington        270            IA      Story             250

  ID      Fremont           270            IA      Audubon           250

  NE      Logan             270            IN      Montgomery        250

  NE      Thomas            270            MO      Harrison          250

  ID      Boise             270            IN      Fountain          250

  TN      Sequatchie        270            IN      Warren            250

  IA      Taylor            270            IA      Dubuque           250

  IA      Iowa              270            IA      Louisa            250

  NC      Cherokee          270            IA      Tama              250

  NC      Graham            260            WY      Teton             250

  TN      Marion            260            IA      Mahaska           250

  TN      Grundy            260            TN      Hamilton          250

  VT      Lamoille          260            MO      Atchison          250

  MO      Worth             260            TN      Mcminn            250

  MO      Nodaway           260            MO      Gentry            250

  NE      Hooker            260            NE      Pawnee            250

  NE      Nemaha            260            NC      Greene            250

  NE      Richardson        260            NC      Lenoir            250

  IA      Montgomery        260            IA      Franklin          250

  UT      Salt Lake         260            IA      Shelby            250

  IA      Page              260            MO      Holt              250

  NC      Swain             260            MO      Putnam            250

  TN      Bledsoe           260            IA      Benton            250

  OR      Lincoln           260            TN      Scott             250

  TN      Meigs             260            IA      Monroe            250

  TN      Rhea              260            WY      Crook             250

  TN      Van Buren         260            TN      Chester           250

  IA      Jones             260            TN      McNairy           250

  IA      Adair             260            TN      Hardin            240
  ------- ----------------- ---------- --- ------- ----------------- ----------

Table 8. Counties with lower estimates of total individual effective
dose from ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs.

  ------- ----------------- ---------- --- ------- ----------------- ----------
  State   County            Dose, μSv      State   County            Dose, μSv

  CA      Imperial          6.8            WA      Franklin          52

  AZ      Yuma              14             TX      Hudspeth          52

  OR      Sherman           31             NM      Hidalgo           52

  AZ      Maricopa          31             WA      Adams             52

  OR      Gilliam           31             TX      Hidalgo           52

  OR      Wasco             33             UT      Grand             52

  TX      Presidio          35             NM      San Juan          53

  NV      Clark             36             TX      Culberson         53

  WA      Yakima            37             NM      Sierra            53

  TX      El Paso           38             TX      Zavala            54

  OR      Jefferson         38             CA      Orange            54

  OR      Deschutes         38             TX      Live Oak          54

  CA      Riverside         40             TX      Kleberg           54

  NM      Dona Ana          40             NV      Esmeralda         55

  CA      Merced            40             WA      Island            55

  TX      Zapata            41             CO      Costilla          55

  WA      Benton            42             CA      Santa Barbara     56

  NM      Valencia          43             TX      Brooks            56

  WA      Grant             44             TX      Kenedy            56

  NM      Luna              44             AZ      Graham            56

  AZ      Pinal             44             WA      Douglas           57

  CA      Lassen            44             TX      Val Verde         57

  TX      Brewster          45             TX      Jim Wells         57

  TX      Jim Hogg          47             TX      Cameron           57

  OR      Crook             47             TX      Nueces            57

  WA      Klickitat         48             CO      Rio Grande        57

  AZ      Pima              48             TX      Atascosa          58

  CA      San Joaquin       48             TX      Willacy           58

  TX      Webb              48             TX      Uvalde            59

  TX      Starr             48             NM      Catron            59

  TX      Duval             49             TX      Loving            59

  OR      Wheeler           50             CA      San Diego         60

  OR      Lake              50             UT      Wayne             60

  CA      San Benito        50             CO      Conejos           60

  NM      Socorro           50             TX      Frio              60

  CA      Stanislaus        50             CA      Modoc             61

  TX      Dimmit            51             UT      San Juan          61

  WA      Chelan            51             CA      Inyo              61

  TX      Mcmullen          51             AZ      Santa Cruz        62

  TX      La Salle          51             TX      San Patricio      63
  ------- ----------------- ---------- --- ------- ----------------- ----------

![](media/image24.wmf){width="6.502083333333333in"
height="4.395138888888889in"}

Fig. 24. Plot of the sum of committed effective doses from ^90^Sr and
^137^Cs as a function of time for two cohorts: those who were adults in
1951 and those born on 1 January 1951.\
Most of the variation in the doses between the two cohorts is due to
changes in intake rates and in strontium metabolism as the young person
ages.

The complete set of calculations of dose from the ingestion of ^131^I is
available on the CD-ROM in the workbook entitled "GBLI131." The
year-by-year estimates of per caput bone surface, colon, red marrow,
thyroid, and effective dose are summarized in Table 9. As expected, due
to the accumulation of iodine in the thyroid, the dose to this organ is
the highest at 960 μSv and the effective dose is less by a factor of 20.

The estimates of yearly per caput thyroid dose, along with thyroid doses
to the adult and a person born on 1 January 1951, are plotted in Fig.
25. As the person born on 1 January 1951 ages, s/he was assigned the
appropriate age-dependent intakes and dose coefficients with time. As
indicated, the dose to the young person is substantially higher than the
per caput dose and the dose to the adult is substantially lower than the
per caput dose. The combined effects on cumulative dose of birth year
and of the amount of fallout experienced during a particular year are
illustrated in Fig. 26 for persons born on 1 January in the years 1951
through 1963. The highest dose was received by a person born on 1
January 1956. Such a person would have received a substantial dose at a
young age from the relative peak of fallout in 1957 and would have still
been young enough to have both a high intake and a high dose coefficient
for the highest yearly amount of ^131^I in fallout in 1962. The person
born on 1 January 1951 received less dose, because by the time of the
fallout peak in 1962 s/he was older and would have experienced less
intake and had a lower dose coefficient.

Table 9. Year-by-year estimates of per caput dose from the ingestion of
^131^I in fallout from high-yield weapons tests in the atmosphere. The
estimates below are country averages, as reliable estimates of
deposition on a county-by-county basis are not yet available.

  --------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------
  Year      Per caput                                           
            organ or                                            
            effective                                           
            dose, μSv                                           

            Bone surface Colon        Red marrow   Thyroid      Effective

  1953      0.0023       0.0045       0.0019       12           0.62

  1954      0.011        0.020        0.0088       56           2.8

  1955      0.00026      0.00046      0.00021      1.3          0.066

  1956      0.031        0.059        0.025        170          8.2

  1957      0.021        0.040        0.017        110          5.6

  1958      0.044        0.083        0.036        230          12

  1959      0.000021     0.000035     0.000017     0.10         0.0051

  1960      0            0            0            0            0

  1961      0.011        0.020        0.0088       58           2.9

  1962      0.062        0.11         0.050        320          16

  1963      0.00024      0.00040      0.00019      1.2          0.059

  Sum       0.18         0.34         0.15         960          48
  --------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------

![](media/image25.wmf){width="6.502083333333333in"
height="2.8916666666666666in"}

Fig. 25. Annual thyroid dose due to the ingestion of ^131^I from global
fallout as a function of year. Data are for three cohorts: those who
were adults (≥18 y in 1953), the per caput value (population-weighted by
age), and those born on 1 January 1951.

![](media/image26.wmf){width="6.502083333333333in"
height="4.395138888888889in"}

Fig. 26. Cumulative (1953 through 1963) thyroid dose as a function of
birth year.

**Tritium and ^14^C.** The calculated results for the individual
effective doses from ^3^H (tritium) and ^14^C are given in Table 10. In
contrast to the results for ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs the values in Table 10
are doses calculated to be actually received in the indicated year,
whereas for ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs the computed values are for committed
doses. The disparate treatments arise from the markedly different
behavior of the two groups of radionuclides. Most of the intake of
^90^Sr and ^137^Cs will occur in the same year that the radionuclides
are deposited in fallout and/or during the next year. However, ^3^H and
^14^C are in vapor or gaseous form and do not deposit with particulate
matter. Rather, they take substantial time to be distributed throughout
the world and their compartments of distribution are very large.
Carbon-14 is also very long lived and will contribute to yearly dose for
tens of thousands of years. In that regard it does not make sense within
the framework of the present project goals to calculate a dose
"commitment" that would be intergenerational. Therefore, the yearly
doses for ^3^H and ^14^C have been calculated and summed only through
the year 2000.

As indicated in Table 10, the calculated sums of effective doses through
the year 2000 are 66 μSv for ^3^H and 120 μSv for ^14^C. The time
dependencies of the doses from ^3^H and ^14^C are also plotted in Fig.
27, which is on a semi-logarithmic scale. Here, the effects of global
distribution, size of compartments, and exchange rates are clearly
evident; ^3^H also has a much, much shorter half life. It is evident
that the yearly dose from ^3^H tracks more closely the amounts injected
into the atmosphere, and the yearly dose from ^3^H subsequently
decreases fairly rapidly due to its half life. In contrast, ^14^C takes
a long time to be distributed throughout its compartments, the yearly
doses track the injection rates only slowly, and the yearly doses
decrease with time much more slowly.

Table 10. Dose to an individual in the Northern Hemisphere from the
creation or release of\
^3^H and ^14^C from the testing of large fusion weapons in the
atmosphere.

  ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  Year        Effective               Year        Effective   
              dose, μSv                           dose, μSv   

              ^3^H        ^14^C                   ^3^H        ^14^C

  1952        0.95        0.032       1977        0.18        2.6

  1953        0.20        0.10        1978        0.16        2.4

  1954        3.4         0.24        1979        0.14        2.3

  1955        0.69        0.51        1980        0.12        2.1

  1956        2.8         0.68        1981        0.11        2.0

  1957        1.3         0.95        1982        0.097       2.0

  1958        6.3         1.3         1983        0.087       1.9

  1959        1.1         1.7         1984        0.078       1.9

  1960        0.58        1.9         1985        0.069       1.9

  1961        14          2.4         1986        0.061       1.8

  1962        21          4.0         1987        0.056       1.8

  1963        3.8         5.4         1988        0.051       1.7

  1964        2.0         5.6         1989        0.046       1.7

  1965        1.4         6.2         1990        0.040       1.7

  1966        1.1         6.3         1991        0.036       1.6

  1967        0.86        5.8         1992        0.033       1.6

  1968        0.71        5.3         1993        0.031       1.5

  1969        0.59        4.8         1994        0.028       1.5

  1970        0.50        4.4         1995        0.025       1.5

  1971        0.43        4.1         1996        0.023       1.4

  1972        0.38        3.8         1997        0.021       1.4

  1973        0.33        3.5         1998        0.019       1.4

  1974        0.28        3.2         1999        0.017       1.4

  1975        0.24        3.0         2000        0.015       1.3

  1976        0.20        2.8         Sum         66          120
  ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

**Collective dose**

The collective doses that can be calculated from the data contained in
the CD-ROM accompanying this document are summarized in Table 11. The
total collective effective dose is estimated to be 66,000 person Sv, and
the total collective thyroid dose is estimated to be 210,000 "thyroid
Sv." In calculating the sum of the dose to the thyroid, it was assumed
that the dose to the thyroid from ^3^H, ^14^C, and ^137^Cs was equal to
the effective dose. This is a reasonable assumption, as these three
radionuclides are distributed uniformly throughout the body.

![](media/image27.wmf){width="6.502083333333333in" height="4.2875in"}

Fig. 27. Plot of the yearly doses from ^3^H and ^14^C calculated on the
basis of specific activity models. Due to its large compartments that
exchange carbon slowly and its long half life, the dose from ^14^C
tracks the injections more slowly than does the dose from ^3^H.

Table 11. Total collective doses calculated for the 1953--1972 period
from the deposition of ^90^Sr, ^131^I, and ^137^Cs in global fallout and
for the 1952--2000 period from ^3^H and ^14^C distributed throughout the
Northern Hemisphere. Values are calculated for the 48 contiguous states
in the U.S. The sum collective thyroid dose is estimated by summing the
specifically calculated thyroid doses and adding the effective doses for
^3^H, ^14^C, and ^137^Cs.

  -------------- ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  Radionuclide   Collective                                       
                 organ or                                         
                 effective                                        
                 committed                                        
                 dose, person                                     
                 Sv                                               

                 Bone surface Colon       Red marrow  Thyroid     Effective

  ^3^H                                                            11,000

  ^14^C                                                           20,000

  ^90^Sr         87,000       2,800       38,000      140         5,900

  ^131^I         30           56          24          160,000     7,800

  ^137^Cs                     25,000                              22,000

  Sum                                                 210,000     66,000
  -------------- ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

**Comparison of per caput effective doses**

In Table 12 the doses calculated in this report are compared to similar
estimates of dose from global fallout reported in UNSCEAR (1993) as
doses averaged over the north temperate zone (40°--50°) of the globe and
to values reported previously in Anspaugh (2000) for doses averaged over
the contiguous U.S. from atmospheric tests conducted at the Nevada Test
Site. Examination of Table 12 indicates that the global fallout doses
reported in UNSCEAR (1993) are higher than those reported here for
^90^Sr, ^131^I, and ^137^Cs, whereas the UNSCEAR reported doses are
lower for ^3^H and ^14^C. There are several primary reasons for this: 1)
the models used in this study are somewhat different from those used by
the UNSCEAR and 2) the assessment domains are different, as the U.S.
covers approximately 30°--50°. In general, the agreement between the two
studies is reasonable given the relatively large amount of uncertainty
in both studies. The UNSCEAR will report on a revised assessment this
year that has been made possible by revised information on fission and
fusion yields reported for the large yield tests; the UNSCEAR assessment
models have also been revised.

Comparison of the doses reported here for the high-yield tests versus
those estimated previously for tests conducted at the NTS indicates that
the sums of the per caput doses are roughly similar, although the
importance of ^131^I is much greater for the doses from the NTS tests.
Also, other short-lived radionuclides are relatively more important for
the NTS tests, notably ^89^Sr and ^140^Ba.

**Uncertainty**

It was not possible for this feasibility study for Beck (2000) to
estimate uncertainty in the amounts of monthly depositions of ^90^Sr and
^137^Cs on a county-by-county basis or for the country-average values
for the monthly deposition of ^131^I. Thus, no attempt was made to
estimate analytically the uncertainty in the estimates of internal dose
reported here. Also, the models used to calculate doses from ^3^H and
^14^C do not at present allow for the analytical estimation of
uncertainty. Based upon the author's subjective judgment, the
uncertainty in doses for any individual county is a factor of three or
more. The estimates of country-average per caput dose and the estimates
of collective dose are likely uncertain by a factor of two or more. It
is believed that a substantial amount of uncertainty is associated with
estimating the amount of fallout retained by vegetation.

**CONCLUSIONS**

The results reported here are part of a feasibility study to determine
if the external and internal doses from fallout from atmospheric tests
conducted at the Nevada Test Site and from high-yield tests conducted at
other locations can be estimated. Previously reported studies have
determined that the internal dose from ^131^I (NCI 1997) and other
radionuclides (Anspaugh 2000) can be determined for tests at the NTS.
Similarly, it has been demonstrated that it is feasible to estimate
external doses from the tests at the Nevada Test Site (Beck 1999) and
from the high-yield tests (Beck 2000). This report completes the
individual components of this feasibility study with the demonstration
that internal doses from the high-yield weapons tests can be calculated.

Except for the dose from ^131^I and in very general terms, the dose from
global fallout (or the dose from high-yield weapons) is more important
than the dose from weapons tests at the Nevada Test Site. Also, the
external dose tends to be higher than the dose from the ingestion of
food contaminated with radionuclides. However, for ^131^I and in
particular the dose to the thyroid, the tests conducted at the Nevada
Test Site were more important contributors to dose. In fact, for the
Nevada tests, ^131^I contributed about 90% of the total effective dose.
Because the variations in dose on a county-by-county basis are very
large for the Nevada tests, however, there can be major local variations
in this general conclusion.

Table 12. Summary of the estimates reported in this paper for per caput
doses resulting from the ingestion of contaminated foods in the 48
contiguous states in the United States from fallout from high-yield
tests in the atmosphere ("global fallout"). The current estimates are
compared with those reported in UNSCEAR (1993) and with those previously
reported for per caput doses from atmospheric tests in Nevada (Anspaugh
2000). Values in the table do not include external doses, which are
reported separately by Beck (1999, 2000).

  --------------- ------------------- ---------------- --------------------
                  Per caput effective                  
                  dose commitment,                     
                  μSv                                  

  Radionuclide    This project                         UNSCEAR (1993)

                  Nevada Test Site    Global           Global fallout^b^
                                      fallout^a^       

  ^3^H            \-                  66^c^            48

  ^14^C           \-                  120^c^           78^d^

  ^55^Fe                                               14

  ^89^Sr          17                                   2.3

  ^90^Sr          3.7                 37               170

  ^91^Sr          0.0065                               

  ^97^Zr          0.15                                 

  ^99^Mo          1.0                                  

  ^103^Ru         3.8                                  

  ^106^Ru         7.2                                  

  ^105^Rh         0.086                                

  ^132^Te         7.8                                  

  ^131^I          610^e^              48               79

  ^133^I          1.9                                  

  ^136^Cs         3.6                                  

  ^137^Cs         10                  130              280

  ^140^Ba         12                                   0.42

  ^143^Ce         0.40                                 

  ^144^Ce         5.3                                  

  ^147^Nd         1.1                                  

  ^238^Pu                                              0.0009

  ^239+240^Pu     1.2                                  0.50

  ^241^Pu         0.087                                0.004

  ^241^Am                                              1.5

  Sum             680^e^              400^f^           670^d^
  --------------- ------------------- ---------------- --------------------

> ^a^ Averaged over the U.S.
>
> ^b^ North temperate zone (40°--50°).
>
> ^c^ To the year 2000.
>
> ^d^ The UNSCEAR (1993) value of 2600 μSv was multiplied by a factor of
> 0.03, the portion estimated to be delivered in 50 y.
>
> ^e^ Age corrected.
>
> ^f^ Incomplete sum for the radionuclides considered.

**REFERENCES**

Anspaugh, L. R. Retention by vegetation of radionuclides deposited in
rainfall---A literature summary. Livermore: Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory, Livermore; UCRL-53810; 1987.

Anspaugh, L. R. Radiation dose to the population of the continental
United States from the ingestion of food contaminated with radionuclides
from nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site. Salt Lake City: L.R.
Anspaugh; Report to the National Cancer Institute; P.O. #263-MQ-912901;
2000.

Beck, H. L. External radiation exposure to the population of the
continental U.S. from Nevada weapons tests and estimates of deposition
density of radionuclides that could significantly contribute to internal
radiation exposure via ingestion. New York: H.L. Beck; Report to the
National Cancer Institute, P.O. #263-MQ-909853; 1999.

Beck, H. L. External radiation exposure to the population of the
continental U.S. from high-yield weapons tests conducted by the U.S.,
U.K. and U.S.S.R. between 1952 and 1963. New York: H.L. Beck; Report to
the National Cancer Institute, P.O. #263-MQ-003539; 2000.

Dahl, A. H.; Bostrum, R.; Patzer, R. C.; Villforth, J. C. Patterns of
I^131^ levels in pasteurized milk network. Health Phys. 9:1179--1185;
1963.

Department of Energy. United States nuclear tests. July 1945 through
September 1992. Las Vegas: U.S. DOE Nevada Operations Office; Report
DOE/NV-209 (Rev. 14); 1994.

Hoffman, F. O.; Frank, M. L.; Blaylock, B. G.; von Bernuth, R. D.;
Deming, E. J.; Graham, R. V.; Mohrbacher, D. A.; Water, A. E. Pasture
grass interception and retention of ^131^I, ^7^Be, and insoluble
microspheres deposited in rain. Oak Ridge: Oak Ridge National
Laboratory; ORNL-6542; 1989.

International Commission on Radiological Protection. Age-dependent doses
to members of the public from intake of radionuclides: Part 1. Annals
ICRP 20(2). Oxford: Pergamon Press; Publication 56; 1989.

International Commission on Radiological Protection. Age-dependent doses
to members of the public from intake of radionuclides: Part 2: Ingestion
dose coefficients. Annals ICRP 23(3/4). Oxford: Pergamon Press;
Publication 67; 1993.

International Commission on Radiological Protection. Age-dependent doses
to members of the public from intake of radionuclides: Part 3: Ingestion
dose coefficients. Annals ICRP 25(1). Oxford: Pergamon Press;
Publication 69; 1995.

International Commission on Radiological Protection. Age-dependent doses
to members of the public from intake of radionuclides: Part 5:
Compilation of ingestion and inhalation dose coefficients. Annals ICRP
26(1). Oxford: Pergamon Press; Publication 72; 1996.

International Commission on Radiological Protection. The ICRP database
of dose coefficients: Workers and members of the public. Oxford:
Pergamon Press; Version 1.0 on CD-ROM; 1998.

Machta, L. Meteorological processes in the transport of weapon
radioiodine. Health Phys. 9:1123--1132; 1963.

Mikhailov, V. N.; Andryshin, I. A.; Bogdan, V. V.; Vashchinkin, S. A.;
Zelentsov, S. A.; Zolotukhin, G. E.; Karimov, V. M.; Kirichenko, V. V.;
Matushchenko, A. M.; Silkin, Yu. S.; Strukov, V. G.; Kharitonov, K. V.;
Tcdhernyshev, A. K.; Tsrykov, G. A.; Shumaev, M. P. USSR nuclear weapons
tests and peaceful nuclear explosions. 1949 through 1990. Moscow:
Ministry of the Russian Federation for Atomic Energy and Ministry of
Defense of the Russian Federation; 1996.

National Cancer Institute. Estimated exposures and thyroid doses
received by the American people from Iodine-131 in fallout following
Nevada atmospheric nuclear bomb tests. Washington: NCI Report; 1997.

National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. Tritium in
the environment. Bethesda: NCRP; Report No. 62; 1979.

Ng, Y. C.; Anspaugh, L. R.; Cederwall, R. T. ORERP internal dose
estimates for individuals. Health Phys. 59:693--713; 1990.

Rupp, E. M. Age dependent values of dietary intake for assessing human
exposures to environmental pollutants. Health Phys. 39:151--163; 1980.

Terrill, J. G., Jr. Review of radionuclides in the food chain. In:
Fallout, radiation standards, and countermeasures. Washington: U.S.
Government Printing Office; Hearings before the Subcommittee on
Research, Development, and Radiation, Joint Committee on Atomic Energy;
88^th^ Congress; 1963; Vol. 1:71--201.

Titley, J. G.; Cabianca, T.; Lawson, G.; Mobbs, S. F.; Simmonds, J.
Improved global dispersion models for iodine-129 and carbon-14.
Luxembourg: Commission of European Communities; Report EUR-15880; 1995.

United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation.
Ionizing radiation: Sources and biological effects. New York: United
Nations; Sales No. E.82.IX.8; 1982.

United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation.
Sources and effects of ionizing radiation. New York: United Nations;
Sales No. E.94.IX.2; 1993.

Whicker, F. W.; Kirchner, T. B. PATHWAY: A dynamic food-chain model to
predict radionuclide ingestion after fallout deposition. Health Phys.
52:717--737; 1987.

Radiation Dose to the Population of the Continental\
United States from the Ingestion of Food Contaminated with Radionuclides
from High-yield Weapons Tests Conducted by the U.S., U.K., and U.S.S.R.
between 1952 and 1963

**Part II. Reference and Subsidiary Information**

######  {#section-2 .unnumbered}

**Lynn R. Anspaugh**

**Lynn R. Anspaugh, Consulting**

**Salt Lake City, UT**

**Report to the National Cancer Institute**

**Purchase Order No. 263-MQ-912901**

[]{#ComparisonofCalc .anchor}**COMPARISON OF CALCULATED DOSES WITH THOSE
DERIVED FROM MEASUREMENTS IN FOODSTUFFS**

One of the specified tasks was to compare the internal dose estimates
calculated for ^90^Sr, ^131^I, and ^137^Cs with those derived from the
measurements of fallout radionuclides in foods. Extensive measurements
of fallout radionuclides in foods started in 1960 with the establishment
of the Pasteurized Milk Network (PMN) of the Public Health Service.
Additional data were also taken on a limited and/or sporadic basis by
many organizations \[see PHS (1960)[^5] for a summary of early
measurement efforts\], but many of the more sophisticated measurements
were not well organized until after the end of the period of testing of
high-yield weapons in the atmosphere.

A full-scale comparison of the measurements with the dose estimates
provided in Part I of this report would be a major undertaking well
beyond the limited funds made available for the present study.

One of the key issues, of course, is whether the model used in Part I of
this study is a reasonable qualitative and quantitative description of
the movement of fallout radionuclides to man. The model used for Part I
of this study is the PATHWAY model of Whicker and Kirchner (1987).[^6]
During the development of this model it was extensively tested against
several data sets, including the measured amounts of global fallout
radionuclides in foodstuffs; in addition other data sets were used such
as concentrations measured following tests at the Nevada Test Site and
following the reactor accident at Windscale, UK. A major report on this
subject was published (Kirchner and Whicker 1984).[^7] This article
gives several graphs of long-term comparisons of ^90^Sr and ^137^Cs from
global fallout in beef and milk. Many additional data sets are provided.
The following is an excerpt from the abstract in Kirchner and Whicker
(1984):

> "The statistical tests used to compare the predictions of PATHWAY to
> the observations include a correlation analysis, a paired t-test, and
> a binomial test. We use the correlation coefficient between
> observations and predictions through time to compare the dynamics of
> the simulated and real world system. Plots of the residuals from
> regression are then examined for bias between the predictions and
> observations. The significance of any trends in the residuals is
> evaluated using a runs test. The paired t-test and the binomial test
> are used to evaluate the accuracy of PATHWAY's predictions. The
> hypothesis for the paired t-test is that the ratio of predictions to
> observations is 1. The paired t-test can be used to test hypotheses
> about ratios because the distributions of observations and predictions
> appear to be lognormal. However, the paired t-test does not consider
> uncertainty in the predictions of the model. We use a binomial test to
> compare the observed data to an interval estimate from PATHWAY. The
> interval corresponds to a 95% confidence interval on the prediction,
> and is derived from uncertainty analyses that have been conducted on
> PATHWAY.
>
> "PATHWAY's predictions are significantly correlated with observed
> levels of ^137^Cs and ^90^Sr in pasture and alfalfa. PATHWAY also
> simulates the dynamics of ^131^I, ^140^Ba, and ^137^Cs in milk well,
> but fails to predict what appears to be a long term accumulation of
> ^90^Sr in the agro-ecosystem. PATHWAY predicts the absolute
> concentrations of ^131^I in milk quite well, but tends to predict
> levels of ^140^Ba, ^90^Sr, ^137^Cs in milk that are different from
> those observed by factors of 2 to 7. PATHWAY predicts levels of
> ^137^Cs and ^90^Sr in pasture and beef within a factor of 2 of those
> observed."

Thus, while the PATHWAY model has been tested extensively and performs
quite well, it is not perfect and has been noted to both underpredict
and overpredict real world situations. In order to examine some
important data sets that pertain directly to global fallout, the data
presented to the U.S. Congress by Terrill (1963)[^8] are used here. The
data pertain to the PMN mentioned above. Although data from 62 different
locations are available, it is not easy to associate these milkshed data
with counties. In addition deposition values for ^131^I and dose
estimates are not available on a county-by-county basis. Therefore, a
comparison has been made only for the population-weighted average dose
calculated for the 48 states with network-average concentrations,
*C~m~*, measured in milk. The relevant milk data are shown in Table 1.

The reported concentrations for ^90^Sr, ^131^I, and ^137^Cs have been
used as the starting point to calculate effective doses for adults
according to the following equation:

$$E = C_{m} \times L \times T \times F_{g} \times K$$

where *E* = Effective dose, Sv;

*L* = Consumption rate of milk, L day^-1^;

*T* = Number of days in time period, days period^-1^;

*F~g~* = Ingestion-dose coefficient for the radionuclide, Sv Bq^-1^; and

K = Units conversion constant, 0.037 Bq pCi^-1^.

Values of *F~g~* are the same as those used in Part I of this report. A
value for *L* was taken to be 0.42 L day^-1^, which is consistent with
the PATHWAY model values (Whicker and Kirchner 1987). *T* is either 365
days per year or one fourth of that per quarter. The results of these
calculations and the comparisons to the values estimated and reported in
Part I of this report are shown in Table 2. A comparison of the values
indicates that the dose values for ^90^Sr and ^131^I agree quite well,
certainly within the expected uncertainties of the values. Dose values
for ^137^Cs do not agree as well, with the model results from Part I
being substantially higher. However, a significant amount of the
calculated dose from ^137^Cs would be expected to have occurred from the
consumption of contaminated meat; thus, the difference is reasonable.

Table 1. Daily average concentration of radionuclides in milk from the
62 stations in the U.S. Public Health Service's Pasteurized Milk
Network, 1960 through the first quarter of 1963. From Terrill (1963).

  ---------------------- --------------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
  Time period or         Concentration                                 
  parameter              in milk, pCi                                  
                         L^-1^                                         

                         ^89^Sr          ^90^Sr    ^131^I    ^137^Cs   ^140^Ba

  1960                                                                 

  12-month average level \<5             8         0         10        0

  12-month low station   \<5             4         0         \<5       0

  12-month high station  \<5             13        0         75        0

                                                                       

  1961                                                                 

  12-month average level 10              8         20        10        \<10

  12-month low station   \<5             4         \<10      \<5       \<10

  12-month high station  30              16        70        65        10

                                                                       

  1962                                                                 

  12-month average level 50              13        32        45        12

  12-month low station   17              3         \<10      12        \<10

  12-month high station  170             30        104       108       29

                                                                       

  1^st^ Quarter 1963                                                   

  3-month average level  35              16        \<10      70        \<10

  3-month low station    \<5             4         \<10      20        \<10

  3-month high station   265             37        20        135       30
  ---------------------- --------------- --------- --------- --------- ---------

Table 2. Calculated doses according to the measured concentrations of
global fallout radionuclides in milk from Table 1 compared to the
estimates of dose reported in\
Part I of this report. Estimates in the last three columns include doses
calculated\
to arise from additional pathways.

  --------------------- --------------- -------- --------- --------- -------- ---------
                        Effective dose                                        
                        to adults, μSv                                        

  Time period           From milk                          From               
                        concentration                      results            
                                                           in Part I          

                        ^90^Sr          ^131^I   ^137^Cs   ^90^Sr    ^131^I   ^137^Cs

  1960                  1.3             0        0.74      0.81      0        3.0

  1961                  1.3             2.5      0.74      0.84      1.2      3.6

  1962                  2.1             4.0      3.3       4.4       6.8      17

  1963, first quarter   0.64            \<0.31   1.3       0.69      0.034    0.48
  --------------------- --------------- -------- --------- --------- -------- ---------

In general the results of this comparison are considered to be
satisfactory and indicate that there are no gross errors in the
assumptions used in the modeling process. Comparisons such as this can
never be perfect and agreement within a factor or two or so is
considered excellent.

[]{#ListofSignif .anchor}**LIST OF SIGNIFICANT REFERENCES**

**Congressional Hearings**

Over the years Congress has held several hearings on fallout, and the
records of the major hearings listed below are major sources of
information on fallout. Most of the material is concerned with global
fallout, but significant amounts of information pertaining to the Nevada
Test Site are also included, particularly in the 1957, 1959, and 1963
hearings.

U.S. Congress. The nature of radioactive fallout and its effects on man.
Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office; Hearings before the Special
Subcommittee on Radiation, Joint Committee on Atomic Energy; 85^th^
Congress; 1957.

U.S. Congress. Fallout from nuclear weapons tests. Washington: U.S.
Government Printing Office; Hearings before the Special Subcommittee on
Radiation, Joint Committee on Atomic Energy; 86^th^ Congress; 1959.

U.S. Congress. Radiation standards, including fallout. Washington: U.S.
Government Printing Office; Hearings before the Subcommittee on
Research, Development, and Radiation, Joint Committee on Atomic Energy;
87^th^ Congress; 1962.

U.S. Congress. Fallout, radiation standards, and countermeasures.
Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office; Hearings before the
Subcommittee on Research, Development, and Radiation, Joint Committee on
Atomic Energy; 88^th^ Congress; 1963.

U.S. Congress. Low-level radiation effects on health. Washington: U.S.
Government Printing Office; Hearings before the Subcommittee on
Oversight and Investigations, Committee on Interstate and Foreign
Commerce, House of Representatives; 96^th^ Congress; 1979.

**Major sources of information on radioactive contamination**

Health and Safety Laboratory. Fallout quarterly reports. New York: U.S.
Department of Energy; 1958+.

Mikhailov, V. N.; Andryshin, I. A.; Bogdan, V. V.; Vashchinkin, S. A.;
Zelentsov, S. A.; Zolotukhin, G. E.; Karimov, V. M.; Kirichenko, V. V.;
Matushchenko, A. M.; Silkin, Yu. S.; Strukov, V. G.; Kharitonov, K. V.;
Tcdhernyshev, A. K.; Tsrykov, G. A.; Shumaev, M. P. USSR nuclear weapons
tests and peaceful nuclear explosions. 1949 through 1990. Moscow:
Ministry of the Russian Federation for Atomic Energy and Ministry of
Defense of the Russian Federation; 1996.

Terrill, J. G., Jr. Review of radionuclides in the food chain. In: U.S.
Congress (1963), Vol. 1:71--201.

U.S. Department of Energy. United States nuclear tests. Las Vegas:
Nevada Operations Office; DOE/NV-209, Rev. 14; 1994.

U.S. Public Health Service. Radiological health data. A series of
monthly reports published from April 1960 through December 1974.
Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office. (Later names of this
journal were "Radiological Health Data and Reports" and "Radiation Data
and Reports.")

**Publications related primarily to dose or data directly relevant to
dose reconstruction**

Åberg, B.; Hungate, F. P. Radioecological concentration processes.
Proceedings of an international symposium held in Stockholm 25−29 April
1966. New York: Pergamon Press; 1967.

Anspaugh, L. R. Retention by vegetation of radionuclides deposited in
rainfall: A literature summary. Livermore: Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory; UCRL-53810; 1972.

Barry, P. J.; Chamberlain, A. C. Deposition of iodine onto plant leaves
from air. Health Phys. 9:1149--1157; 1963.

Beierwaltes, W. H.; Crane, H. R.; Wegst, A.; Spafford, N. R.; Carr, E.
A., Jr. Radioactive iodine concentration in the fetal human thyroid
gland from fall-out. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 173:1895--1902; 1960.

Beierwaltes, W. H.; Hilger, M. T. J.; Wegst, A. Radioiodine
concentration in fetal human thyroid from fallout. Health Phys.
9:1263--1266; 1963.

Cohn, S. H.; Gusmano, E. A. Uptake and transfer of fallout I^131^ in
pregnant women. Heath Phys. 9:1267−1269; 1963.

Dunning, G. M. Two ways to estimate thyroid dose from radioiodine in
fallout. Nucleonics 14(2):38--44; 1956.

Dunning, G. M. Criteria for evaluating gamma radiation exposures from
fallout following nuclear detonations. Radiology 66:585--594; 1956.

Dunning, G. M. Criteria for establishing short term permissible
ingestion of fallout material. Am. Ind. Hyg. Assoc. J. 19:111--120;
1958.

Eisenbud, M.; Mochizuki, Y.; Goldin, A. S.; Laurer, G. R. Iodine-131
dose from Soviet nuclear tests. Science 136:370--374; 1962.

Eisenbud, M.; Pasternack, B.; Laurer, G.; Block, L. Variability of the
I^131^ concentrations in the milk distribution system of large city.
Health Phys. 9:1303--1305; 1963.

Eisenbud, M.; Pasternack, B.; Laurer, G.; Mochizuki, Y.; Wrenn, M. E.;
Block, L.; Mowafy, R. Estimation of the distribution of thyroid doses in
a population exposed to I^131^ from weapons tests. Health Phys.
9:1281--1289; 1963.

Eisenbud, M.; Mochizuki, Y.; Laurer, G. I^131^ dose to human thyroids in
New York City from nuclear tests in 1962. Health Phys. 9:1291--1298;
1963.

Garner, R. J. A mathematical analysis of the transfer of fission
products to cows' milk. Health Phys. 13:205−212; 1967.

Koranda, J. J. Agricultural factors affecting the daily intake of fresh
fallout by dairy cows. Livermore: Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory; UCRL‑12479; 1965.

Lewis, E. B. Leukemia and ionizing radiation. Science 125:965--972;
1957.

Lewis, E. B. Thyroid radiation dose from fallout. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
45:894--897; 1959.

Libby, W. F. Dosages from natural radiation and cosmic rays. Science
122:57--58; 1955.

Pauling, L. Genetic and somatic effects of carbon-14. Science
128:1183--1186; 1958.

Rupp, E. M. Age dependent values of dietary intake for assessing human
exposure to environmental pollutants. Health Phys. 39:151−163;1980.

Stannard, J. N. Radioactivity and health. A history. Springfield, VA:
National Technical Information Service; 1988.

Totter, J. R.; Zelle, M. R.; Hollister, H. Hazard to man of carbon-14.
Science 128:1490--1495; 1958.

UNSCEAR. Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the
Effects of Atomic Radiation. New York: United Nations General Assembly;
Official Records: Thirteenth Session, Supplement No. 17 (A/3838); 1958.

UNSCEAR. Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the
Effects of Atomic Radiation. New York: United Nations General Assembly;
Official Records: Seventeenth Session, Supplement No. 16 (A/5216); 1962.

UNSCEAR. Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the
Effects of Atomic Radiation. New York: United Nations General Assembly;
Official Records: Nineteenth Session, Supplement No. 14 (A/5814); 1964.

UNSCEAR. Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the
Effects of Atomic Radiation. New York: United Nations General Assembly;
Official Records: Twenty-First Session, Supplement No. 14 (A/6314);
1966.

UNSCEAR. Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the
Effects of Atomic Radiation. New York: United Nations General Assembly;
Official Records: Twenty-Fourth Session, Supplement No. 13 (A/7613);
1969.

UNSCEAR. Ionizing radiation: Levels and effects. A report of the United
Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation to the
General Assembly, with annexes. New York: United Nations; Sales No.
E.72.IX.17; 1972.

UNSCEAR. Sources and effects of ionizing radiation. United Nations
Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation 1977 report to
the General Assembly, with annexes. New York: United Nations; Sales No.
E.77.IX.1; 1977.

UNSCEAR. Ionizing radiation: Sources and biological effects. United
Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation 1982
report to the General Assembly, with annexes. New York: United Nations;
Sales No. E.82.IX.8; 1982.

UNSCEAR. Sources, effects and risks of ionizing radiation. United
Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation 1988
report to the General Assembly, with annexes. New York: United Nations;
Sales No. E.88.IX.7; 1988.

UNSCEAR. Sources and effects of ionizing radiation. United Nations
Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation 1993 report to
the General Assembly, with annexes. New York: United Nations; Sales No.
E.94.IX.2; 1993.

Visalli, F. I.; Goldin, A. S. Fallout I^131^ in children---in vivo
measurements. Health Phys. 9:1271--1277; 1963.

**Publications related primarily to the detection or monitoring of
fallout materials**

Anderson, E. C. Part II. Scintillation counters. The Los Alamos human
counter. Brit. J. Radiol. Suppl. 7:27--32; 1957.

Anderson, E. C. Radioactivity of people and milk: 1957. Science
128:882−886; 1958.

Anderson, E. C.; Schuch, R. L.; Fisher, W. R.; Langham, W. Radioactivity
of people and foods. Science 125:1273--1278; 1957.

Anderson, E. C.; Schuch, R. L.; Fisher, W. R.; Van Dilla, M. A.
Barium-140 radioactivity in foods. Science 127:283--284; 1958.

Arnalds, O.; Cutshall, N. H.; Nielsen, G. A. Cesium-137 in Montana
soils. Health Phys. 57:955--958; 1989.

Begemann, F.; Libby, W. F. Continental water balance, ground water
inventory and storage times, surface ocean mixing rates and worldwide
water circulation patterns from cosmic-ray and bomb tritium. Geochim.
Cosmochim. Acta 12:277--296; 1957.

Black, S. C.; Potter, G. D. Historical perspectives on selected health
and safety aspects of nuclear weapons testing. Health Phys. 51:17−33;
1986.

Blincoe, C.; Bohman, V. R.; Fountain, E. L. Iodine-131 in bovine thyroid
glands from 1957 through 1961. J. Agr. Food Chem. 12:414--418; 1964.

Blincoe, C.; Bohman, V. R. Bovine thyroid iodine-131 concentrations
subsequent to Soviet nuclear weapons tests. Science 137:690--691; 1962.

Bohman, V. R.; Blincoe, C.; Wade, M. A.; Lesperance, A. L.; Fountain, E.
L. Accumulation of strontium in bovine bones. J. Agr. Food Chem.
14:413--415; 1966.

Broecker, W. S.; Walton, A. Radiocarbon from nuclear tests. Science
130:309--314; 1959.

Bryant, F. J.; Chamberlain, A. C.; Morgan, A.; Spicer, G. S.
Radiostrontium in soil, grass, milk and bone in UK: 1956 results.
Harwell: Atomic Energy Research Establishment; AERE HP/R 2353; 1957.

Bustad, L. K., Ed. Biology of radioiodine. Oxford: Pergamon Press; 1964.

Caldecott, R. S.; Snyder, L. A., Eds. Radioisotopes in the biosphere.
Minneapolis: University of Minnesota; 1960.

Campbell, J. E.; Murphy, G. K.; Goldin, A. S.; Robinson, H. B.; Straub,
C. P.; Weber, F. J.; Lewis, K. H. The occurrence of strontium-90,
iodine-131, and other radionuclides in milk---May, 1957, through April,
1958. Am. J. Pub. Health 49:225--235; 1959.

Carter, M. W.; Moghissi, A. A. Three decades of nuclear testing. Health
Phys. 33:55−71; 1977.

Comar, C. L.; Trum, B. F.; Kuhn III, U. S. G.; Wasserman, R. H.; Nold,
M. M.; Schooley, J. C. Thyroid radioactivity after nuclear weapons
tests. Science 126:16--18; 1957.

Dahl, A. H.; Bostrum, R.; Patzer, R. C.; Villforth, J. C. Patterns of
I^131^ levels in pasteurized milk network. Health Phys. 9:1179--1185;
1963.

Dunning, G. M.; Hilcken, J. A., Eds. Shorter term hazards of a fallout
field. Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office; 1958.

Eckelmann, W. R.; Kulp, J. L.; Schulert, A. R. Strontium-90 in man, II.
Science 127:266--274; 1958.

Eisenbud, M. Environmental radioactivity. New York: Academic Press;
3^rd^ edition; 1987.

Eisenbud, M.; Harley, J. H. Radioactive dust from nuclear detonations.
Science 117:141--147; 1953.

Eisenbud, M.; Harley, J. H. Radioactive fallout in the United States.
Science 121:677--680; 1955.

Eisenbud, M.; Harley, J. H. Radioactive fallout through September 1955.
Science 124:251--255; 1956.

Eriksson, E. An account of the major pulses of tritium and effects in
the atmosphere. Tellus 17:118--130; 1965.

Evans, R. B.; Snelling, R. N.; Buck, F. N. Assessment of thyroid
inhalation doses in the western United States from the Chinese nuclear
test of November 1971. Radiat. Data Repts. 14:9--15; 1973.

Feely, H. W.; Friend, J. P.; Krey, P. W.; Russell, B. A. Project Star
Dust flight data and results of radiochemical analyses of filter samples
collected during 1961 and 1962. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-153; 1965.

Feely, H. W.; Katzman, D.; Biscaye, P. E.; Panaccione, J. B.; French, E.
R. Flight data and results of radiochemical analyses of filter samples
collected during 1965. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; HASL-176; 1966.

Fountain, E. L.; Seal, M. S. Strontium-90 in the bones of big game in
the western United States. Health Phys. 13:1205--1209; 1967.

Fowler, E. B., ed. Radioactive fallout, soils, plants, man. New York:
Elsevier; 1965.

Freiling, E. C., ed. Radionuclides in the environment. Washington:
American Chemical Society; 1970.

Fry, L.; Kuroda, P. K. Stratospheric fallout of strontium-89 and
barium-140. Science 129:1742--1743; 1959.

Fry, L. M.; Jew, F. A.; Kuroda, P. K. On the stratospheric fallout of
strontium-90: The spring peak of 1959. J. Geophys. Res. 65:2061--2066;
1960.

Gunther, R. L.; Jones, H. B. Confirmation of radioactivity in thyroids
of various animals. Berkeley: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory;
UCRL-2689 and Addendum; 1954.

Gustafson, P. F. ^137^Cs in the U.S. diet 1961--1968 and the influence
of climatic and agricultural factors. In: Environmental contamination by
radioactive materials. Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency;
1967:135--143.

Hagemann, F.; Gray, J., Jr.; Machta, L.; Turkevich, A. Stratospheric
carbon-14, carbon dioxide and tritium. Science 130:542--543; 1959.

Hagemann, F.; Gray, J., Jr.; Machta, L. Carbon-14 measurements in the
atmosphere -- 1953 to 1964. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-159; 1964.

Hanson, W. C. Cesium-137 in Alaskan lichens, caribou and Eskimos. Health
Phys. 13:383--389; 1967.

Hanson, W. C.; Dahl, A. H.; Whicker, F. W.; Longhurst, W. M.; Flyger,
V.; Davey, S. P.; Greer, K. R. Thyroidal radioiodine concentrations in
North American deer following 1961--1963 nuclear weapons tests. Health
Phys. 9:1235--1239; 1963.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Harley, J.; Lough, S. A. Environmental contamination
from weapons tests. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; HASL-42; 1958.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Klein, S. Strontium program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-51; 1958.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Klein, S. Strontium program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-55; 1959.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Klein, S. Strontium program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-65; 1959.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Klein, S. Strontium program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-69; 1959.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Klein, S. Strontium program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-77; 1960.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Klein, S. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-84; 1960.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Klein, S.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly
summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; HASL-88; 1960.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Frankel, R. Fallout program quarterly
summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; HASL-95; 1960.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Frankel, R. Fallout program quarterly
summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; HASL-105; 1961.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Frankel, R. Fallout program quarterly
summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; HASL-111; 1961.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Frankel, R. Fallout program quarterly
summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; HASL-113; 1961.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Frankel, R. Fallout program quarterly
summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; HASL-115; 1961.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Frankel, R. Fallout program quarterly
summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; HASL-117; 1961.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Frankel, R. Fallout program quarterly
summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; HASL-122; 1962.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Frankel, R. Fallout program quarterly
summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; HASL-127; 1962.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Collins, W. R., Jr. Fallout program
quarterly summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-131; 1962.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Collins, W. R., Jr. Fallout program
quarterly summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-132; 1963.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Collins, W. R., Jr. Fallout program
quarterly summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-135; 1963.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Collins, W. R., Jr. Fallout program
quarterly summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-138; 1963.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Collins, W. R., Jr. Fallout program
quarterly summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-140; 1963.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Collins, W. R., Jr. Fallout program
quarterly summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-142; 1964.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Collins, W. R., Jr. Fallout program
quarterly summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-144; 1964.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J.; Collins, W. R., Jr. Fallout program
quarterly summary report. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-146; 1964.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-149; 1964.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-155; 1965.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-158; 1965.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-161; 1965.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-164; 1965.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-165; 1966.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-171; 1966.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-172; 1966.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-173; 1966.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-174; 1967.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-181; 1967.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-182; 1967.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-183; 1967.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-184; 1968.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-193; 1968.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-197; 1968.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-200; 1968.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-204; 1969.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-207; 1969.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-210; 1969.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-214; 1969.

Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Rivera, J. Fallout program quarterly summary report.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; HASL-217; 1970.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-224; 1970.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-227; 1970.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-237; 1970.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-239; 1971.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-242; 1971.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-243; 1971.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-245; 1971.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-246; 1972.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-249; 1972.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-257; 1972.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-259; 1972.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-268; 1973.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-273; 1973.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-274; 1973.

Hardy, E. P., Jr. Fallout program quarterly summary report. New York:
U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-276; 1973.

Hardy, E. P. Plutonium in soil northeast of the Nevada Test Site. New
York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory;
HASL-306; 1976.

Harley, J. H.; Hardy, E. P., Jr.; Welford, G. A.; Whitney, I. B.;
Eisenbud, M. Summary of analytical results from the HASL strontium
program to June 1956. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; NYO-4751 (Rev.); 1956.

Harley, J. H.; Rivera, J. Summary of available data on the strontium-90
content of food and of total diets in the United States. New York: U.S.
Department of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-90;
1960.

Harley, J. H.; Hallden, N. A.; Ong, L. D. Y. Summary of gummed film
results through December, 1959. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-93; 1960.

Hartgering, J. B.; Schrodt, A. G.; Knoblock, E. C.; Burstein, A. G.;
McIver, R. D.; Roberts, J. E. Recovery of radioactive iodine and
strontium from human urine---Operation Teapot. Washington: Walter Reed
Army Institute of Research; AFSWP-893; 1955.

Health and Safety Laboratory. Project Sunshine, progress from September
1953 to January 4, 1954. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; NYO-4571; 1954.

Health and Safety Laboratory. Worldwide fallout from Operation Castle.
New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Measurements
Laboratory; NYO-4621; 1955.

Health and Safety Laboratory Staff Report. Preliminary data on fallout
from the Fall 1961 USSR test series. New York: U.S. Department of Energy
Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-121; 1962.

Health and Safety Laboratory Staff Report. Major catalogue of what is
being measured. Survey of fallout operations. New York: U.S. Department
of Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory; HASL-128; 1962.

Hoard, A. G.; Eisenbud, M.; Harley, J. H. Annotated bibliography on
fall-out resulting from nuclear explosions. New York: U.S. Department of
Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory; NYO-4753; 1956.

Hoard, A. G.; Eisenbud, M.; Harley, J. H. Annotated bibliography on
fall-out resulting from nuclear explosions. New York: U.S. Department of
Energy Environmental Measurements Laboratory; NYO-4753; Supplement 1;
1956.

Hoard, A. G. Annotated bibliography on fall-out resulting from nuclear
explosions. New York: U.S. Department of Energy Environmental
Measurements Laboratory; NYO-4753; Supplement 3; 1957.

Holland, J. Z. Physical origin and dispersion of radioiodine. Health
Phys. 9:1095--1103; 1963.

Hull, A. P. Vegetation retention and vegetation-milk ratios of fallout
I^131^. Health Phys. 9:1173--1177; 1963.

Johnson, J. E.; Wilson, D. W.; Lindsay, W. L. Transfer of fallout
^137^Cs from soil to dairy cattle feeds. Proc. Soil Sci. Soc. Amer.
30:416--xxx; 1966.

Joyet, G.; Joyet, M.-L. The exponential decrease of ^137^Cs in man from
mid-1954 through mid-1968 and its significance. Health Phys.
18:455--465; 1970.

Kahn, B.; Straub, C. P.; Jones, I. R. Radioiodine in milk of cows
consuming stored feed and of cows on pasture. Science 138:1334--1335;
1962.

Klement, A. W., Jr., Ed. Radioactive fallout from nuclear weapons tests.
Washington: U.S. Department of Energy; AEC Symposium Series No. 5; 1965.

Kulp, J. L.; Eckelmann, W. R.; Schulert, A. R. Strontium-90 in man.
Science 125:219--225; 1957.

Kulp, J. L.; Schulert, A. R. Strontium-90 in man. V. Science
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[]{#Limitations .anchor}**LIMITATIONS OF PRESENT CALCULATIONS OF DOSE
FROM\
^131^I IN GLOBAL FALLOUT**

Problems in calculating doses from ^131^I contained in global fallout
were mentioned in Part I. It is instructive to remember that by
definition global fallout consists of debris that is injected into the
upper regions of the atmosphere, from which it devolves slowly with
time. A normal expectation would be that this material comes down so
slowly that all of the ^131^I contained in the debris would have decayed
before it reached the earth. However, it was noted on many occasions
that ^131^I from global fallout did occur in milk, but mainly through
the occurrence of uncommon atmospheric events such as the large-scale
subsidence of air masses and from the penetration of large thunder
storms into the upper troposphere and even into the stratosphere (Machta
1963).

In general these unusual occurrences were not predictable. Also, the
networks that were established to monitor global fallout were not
generally designed and equipped to monitor the presence of radionuclides
as short-lived as ^131^I. Thus, although some data exist and have been
used by Beck (2000) to calculate country-average values of deposition of
^131^I, it has not yet been possible to use such data to provide
county-by-county estimates of the deposition of ^131^I.

An alternate method of improving the estimates of dose from ^131^I and
in achieving much better resolution is to use the actual data on the
measurements of the concentration of ^131^I in milk. A summary of such
measurements for the 1960--1963 (first quarter only) were presented
earlier. Briefly, the history of such measurements is that the Public
Health Service established the Raw Milk Network in 1957 to develop
sampling and radiochemical analytical proficiencies (Terrill 1963). The
Pasteurized Milk Network was established later and was used to monitor
and report levels of radionuclides in milk from 1960 through 1974. The
milksheds sampled through the PMN covered essentially all of the
contiguous U.S. plus Alaska and Hawaii.

A proposed method to reconstruct radiation dose from ^131^I in global
fallout is to use the actual data reported from the PMN. This could
cover at least the major periods of fallout from 1960 through 1963.
Monthly summaries of such data are available in *Radiological Health
Data,* a publication of the U.S. Public Health Service. It is hoped that
the unsummarized data can be located and used for dose-reconstruction
purposes.

An improved dose reconstruction for the important 1956--1958 years is
more problematic, as very few measurements of radionuclides in milk were
made. Perhaps additional work with the gummed-film data (Beck 2000)
could be useful, and additional work could be done with the
cattle-thyroid data collected by Van Middlesworth (1954, 1956,
1958,1960, 1963). There are also many measurements of concentrations of
radionuclides in air that might be processed to derive useful
information on the occurrence of ^131^I in air; the deposition to ground
and vegetation could then be estimated.

[^1]: Estimates of deposition density for ^239^Np are now available from
    Beck (personal communication). If more detailed studies are to
    follow the current feasibility studies, the dose from ^239^Np should
    be included.

[^2]: These years do not match the years of testing indicated on the
    previous page. Fallout from the 1952 tests occurred mainly in 1953
    and afterward; fallout from the tests in the early 1960's was still
    measurable in 1972.

[^3]: The six age groups considered by the ICRP are 1) "three months"
    \[0 to 12 months\], 2) "one y" \[from 1 y to 2 y\], 3) "five y"
    \[\>2 y to 7 y\], 4) "10 y" \[\>7 y to 12 y\], 5) "15 y" \[\>12 y to
    17 y\], and 6) "adult" \[\>17 y\].

[^4]: The 1955, 1959, and 1963 years that are plotted represent local
    maxima in dose; the committed dose in 1963 (resulting largely from
    explosions in 1962) was the highest.

[^5]: Public Health Service. Radiological Health Data Vol. 1, No. 1;
    April 1960.

[^6]: See Part I References for citation.

[^7]: Kirchner, T. B.; Whicker, F. W. Validation of PATHWAY, a
    simulation model of the transport of radionuclides through
    agroecosystems. Ecological Modeling 22:21--44; 1984.

[^8]: See following list of documents for citation.