Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 8/1/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** PK5010

PK5010

**Pakistan**

**Oilseeds and Produ****cts**

**Annual**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

Howard Anderson, Agricultural Attaché, U.S. Embassy
![](media/image1.wmf)Islamabad, Pakistan

**Prepared by:**

Muhammad Shafiq Ur Rehman, Agricultural Specialist, US. Embassy,
Islamabad, Pakistan

**Report Highlights:**

Pakistan\'s production of oilseed, meal and oil are all expected to
decrease due to late crop

sowing, constraints in acquiring quality hybrid seed and bad weather
conditions. To meet rising consumer demand, more imports will be
necessary. The removal of a taxation anomaly on soybean meal by giving
it zero rated sales tax status may increase commercial imports of
soybeans in the country. Ghee remains popular and demand for palm oil
should remain strong. U.S. concession programs, not used for a few
years, are increasing import of U.S. soybeans and related products into
the country.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Annual Report

Islamabad \[PK1\]

\[PK\]

Table of Contents

[Executive Summary 3](#executive-summary)

[OILSEEDS 3](#oilseeds)

[Production 3](#production)

[Government Support 4](#government-support)

[Consumption 4](#consumption)

[Trade 5](#trade)

[Table 1: Oilseed Imports (MT) 5](#table-1-oilseed-imports-mt)

[Table 2. Total Oil seeds Production, Supply and Demand
6](#table-2.-total-oil-seeds-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 3. Cotton seed Production, Supply and Demand
7](#table-3.-cotton-seed-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 4: Sunflower-seed Production, Supply and Demand
8](#table-4-sunflower-seed-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 5: Rapeseed Production, Supply and Demand
9](#table-5-rapeseed-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 6: Soybean Production, Supply and Demand
10](#table-6-soybean-production-supply-and-demand)

[OIL MEAL 11](#oil-meal)

[Production 11](#production-1)

[Consumption 11](#consumption-1)

[Trade 11](#trade-1)

[Table 7: Total Oil Meal Production, Supply and Demand
12](#table-7-total-oil-meal-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 8: Cottonseed Meal Production, Supply and Demand
13](#table-8-cottonseed-meal-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 9: Sunflower-seed Meal Production, Supply and Demand
14](#table-9-sunflower-seed-meal-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 10: Rapeseed Meal Production, Supply and Demand
15](#table-10-rapeseed-meal-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 11: Soybean Meal Production, Supply and Demand
16](#table-11-soybean-meal-production-supply-and-demand)

[OILS 17](#oils)

[Production 17](#production-2)

[Consumption 17](#consumption-2)

[Trade 17](#trade-2)

[Table 12: Oil Tariffs and Taxes 18](#table-12-oil-tariffs-and-taxes)

[Table 13: Total Oil Production, supply and Demand
19](#table-13-total-oil-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 14: Cottonseed Oil Production, Supply and Demand
20](#table-14-cottonseed-oil-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 15: Sunflower-seed Oil Production, Supply and Demand
21](#table-15-sunflower-seed-oil-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 16: Rapeseed Oil Production, Supply and Demand
22](#table-16-rapeseed-oil-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 17: Soybean Oil Production, Supply and Demand
23](#table-17-soybean-oil-production-supply-and-demand)

[Table 18: Palm Oil Production, Supply and Demand
24](#table-18-palm-oil-production-supply-and-demand)

# Executive Summary

Pakistan is one of the major edible oil importers in the world. Its
imports represent the country's fifth highest expenditure on the
national exchequer. Oilseeds production is highlighted by the government
as an important way of saving scarce foreign exchange. Despite this
focus, efforts to increase production have not been very successful for
a number of reasons and significant increases appear unlikely in the
foreseeable future.

MY 2005/06 oilseeds production is forecast to decrease considerably from
previous year by 20 percent on anticipated contraction in cottonseed and
rapeseed productivity and 8 percent growth in sunflower planted area.
Over the past several years oilseed imports have increased sharply in
response to government policy designed to support the domestic solvent
extraction industry. The policy intent is to enable local producers to
capture the value-added benefits from local meal and oil production, and
thereby enhance development of a viable industry necessary to stimulate
local oilseed production.

MY 2005/06-meal production is forecast to decrease by 13 percent mainly
due to a decreased supply of local cottonseed and rapeseed; however,
imported oilseeds and meal will augment local supplies. Local processors
had been importing soybeans meal to satisfy growing demand from the
poultry sector. However, the announcement of zero rated sales tax status
will further encourage import of soybeans. The inclusion rate of soybean
meal in mixed feed formulation has increased to 15 percent in response
to demand for quality feed in the poultry and livestock sectors.

In MY 2005/06 oil imports are forecast to increase by 7 percent mainly
due to increased demand of burgeoning population and the shortage of
local oilseeds supplies in the country. Palm oil is the main imported
oil. However, growing awareness of the unhealthiness of saturated oil is
emerging. A growing number of consumers now prefer liquid oils to
'ghee\", but remain dissuaded by price.

# OILSEEDS

## Production

MY 2005/06 total oilseed production is forecast to decrease by 20
percent over the prior year's output due to late cotton planting, higher
than normal replanting and early summer rains/floods.

MY 2004/05 oilseeds production increased to 5.48 MMT mainly due to
increased production of cottonseed, sunflower seed and rapeseed driven
mainly by acreage shift to these commodities following favorable weather
conditions.

[Cottonseed:]{.underline}

Pakistan's principle oilseed crop, cottonseed, typically accounts for
about 80-90 percent of total domestic oilseed production. Cottonseed is
grown primarily for lint, the basic input for Pakistan's important
textile industry. Oil and meal are secondary products.

MY 2005/06-cottonseed production is forecast to decrease by about 24
percent over the prior year's output due to late cotton planting and
early prevalence of wet weather conditions.

MY 2004/05-cottonseed production increased by 44 percent mainly due to
expansion in area, extraordinary favorable weather conditions and record
low pest infestation.

[Rapeseed:]{.underline}

Traditionally, rapeseed is produced for use in fodder (mixed with wheat
straw) and for oil. Domestic rapeseed accounts for 4-6 percent of total
oilseed production. The Government's stated goal is to increase
production of canola, but so for has made little progress towards
achieving this goal during the last few years. Efforts to replace
rapeseed and mustard seed with high-yielding canola have not advanced
substantially due to lack of timely procurement of good quality seed,
low adjustability in cropping patterns, low farm-gate prices and
problems in marketing the higher value product.

MY 2005/06-rapeseed production is forecast to decrease by 7 percent due
to better prices and procurement incentives offered to wheat and its
products, and constraints in availability of quality hybrid seed to
farmers.

[Sunflower seed:]{.underline}

MY 2005/06 sunflower seed production is forecast to increase by 9
percent due to increased acreage in Sindh Province, higher farm gate
prices (over Rs. 670 per 40 Kgs) offered to the growers by the solvent
industry.

MY 2004/05 sunflower seed production increased by 25 percent above the
previous harvest due to stronger market demand and better returns. .

## Government Support 

Oilseed production is not encouraged by a support price mechanism and
there is no procurement by the state. Several years back the Military
government, under a commitment to the Asian Development Bank (ADB),
shifted public policy from one of direct price support to one of
infrastructure development (i.e., production technology, procurement and
market infrastructure). The current government reintroduced the Minimum
Guaranteed Price System for major crops, justifying its policy shift as
a safeguard measure in the event market prices decline steeply.

The emphasis laid for the concessional import of oilseeds for the
development of a viable processing industry has been effective. The
industry is now in a position to help the growers increase oilseed
production. In MY 2004/05, the solvent extraction industry offered
better prices to the sunflower growers, which resulted in increased
planting and production in the ensuing year.

## Consumption

Pakistan's crushing industry consists of older, inefficient
single-function facilities along with newer solvent extraction plants.
Industry capacity is estimated at 5 MMT, with older plants holding 3.5
MMT and newer plants holding 1.5 MMT. During the 1990's the solvent
extract industry was estimated to have been operating at below 50
percent of installed capacity. With raw material more readily
availability thru importation, the solvent industry is now operating at
an estimated 75 - 80 percent of installed capacity.

## 

## 

## 

## Trade

MY 2005/06 oilseed trade is forecast to expand by 55 percent as crushing
margins improve with recent changes to the import duty structure and the
significant decrease in domestic cottonseed production. Imports are
expected to consist of: rapeseed/canola (600,000 MT), and soybeans
(150,000 MT). In June 2003, the GOP exempted all oilseeds from custom
duty but imposed a 20 percent sales tax. This action encouraged import
of rapeseed and sunflower seed over soybeans because the sales tax
applied for the meal by-product differed by commodity. However, this
taxation anomaly was resolved and soybean meal was granted zero- rated
sales tax status. This will help restart commercial import of soybean in
2005/06. All vegetable oils, however, are assessed a flat 15 percent
excise duty. In recent years, U.S. soybeans have entered the market
under the U.S. PL-480 and 416(b) programs.

MY 2004/05 oilseed imports were 616 thousand tones, which is less than
the previous years imports due to enhanced domestic production. Oilseed
were imported mainly due to lower tariffs structure as compared to
higher tariffs on meal and oil, which influenced crush margins
significantly. Changes allowed the industry (and the economy) to capture
the value-added benefits from the local crush, mainly at the expense of
imported Indian soybean meal and palm oil. Rapeseed/canola seeds are
sourced primarily from Canada and Australia with a small quantity of
sunflower-seed. Sunflower seed import, is currently minimal due to
higher freight charges accrued on its import. At the same time local
production is on the increase due to strong market demand and favor by
the solvent industry.

### Table 1: Oilseed Imports (MT)

  ------------------ ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  Commodity          MY 2003/04        MY 2004/05        MY 2005/06

  Canola/rapeseed    550,000           580,000           750,000

  Sunflower seed     149,000           0                 0

  Soybeans           50,000            36,000            150,000

  Total              749,000           616,000           900,000
  ------------------ ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

### Table 2. Total Oil seeds Production, Supply and Demand

  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity:**        **TOTAL                                                  
                        OILSEEDS**                                               

                                     2003                  2004                  2005

                        Official     Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year Begin**              10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Area Planted          3394         3342       3576       3632       3759       3612

  Area Harvested        3486         3342       3666       3622       3759       3462

  Beginning Stocks      0            0          0          0          0          0

  Production            3660         3855       5268       5408       4213       4312

  MY Imports            715          735        532        580        525        900

  MY Imp. from U.S.     11           11         10         0          100        100

  MY Imp. from the EC   0            0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          4375         4590       5800       5988       4738       5212

  MY Exports            0            0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC     0            0          0          0          0          0

  Crush Dom.            3765         4021       5056       5316       4641       4587
  Consumption                                                                    

  Food Use Dom.         0            0          0          0          0          0
  Consump.                                                                       

  Feed,Seed,Waste       610          569        744        672        639        625
  Dm.Cn.                                                                         

  TOTAL Dom.            4375         4590       5800       5988       5280       5212
  Consumption                                                                    

  Ending Stocks         0            0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    4375         4590       5800       5988       5280       5212

  Calendar Year Imports 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to     0            0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                           

                                                                                 
  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### 

###  

### 

### Table 3. Cotton seed Production, Supply and Demand

  -------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity**        **Oilseed,                           (1000                 
                       Cottonseed**                         HA)(1000              
                                                            MT)                   

                                      2003                  2004                  2005

                       Official       Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

                                                                                  

  **Market Year                       10/2003               10/2004               10/2005
  Begin**                                                                         

  Area Planted         3000           3000       3100       3200       0          3150
  (COTTON)                                                                        

  Area                 3092           3000       3190       3190       3150       3000
  Harvested(COTTON)                                                               

  Seed to Lint Ratio   0              0          0          0          0          0

  Beginning Stocks     0              0          0          0          0          0

  Production           3290           3290       4797       4727       4150       3600

  MY Imports           0              0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from U.S.    0              0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC  0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY         3290           3290       4797       4727       4150       3600

  MY Exports           0              0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC    0              0          0          0          0          0

  Crush Dom.           2791           2791       4182       4121       3625       3140
  Consumption                                                                     

  Food Use Dom.        0              0          0          0          0          0
  Consump.                                                                        

  Feed,Seed,Waste      499            499        615        606        525        460
  Dm.Cm.                                                                          

  TOTAL Dom.           3290           3290       4797       4727       4150       3600
  Consumption                                                                     

  Ending Stocks        0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION   3290           3290       4797       4727       4150       3600

  Calendar Year        0              0          0          0          0          0
  Imports                                                                         

  Calendar Yr Imp.     0              0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                            

  Calendar Year        0              0          0          0          0          0
  Exports                                                                         

  Calndr Yr Exp. to    0              0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                            
  -------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### Table 4: Sunflower-seed Production, Supply and Demand

  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity**         **Oilseed,                                    (1000      
                        Sunseed**                                     HA)(1000   
                                                                      MT)        

                                     2003                  2004                  2005

                        Official     Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year Begin**              10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Area Planted          0            0          0          0          0          0

  Area Harvested        110          233        184        313        184        350

  Beginning Stocks      0            0          0          0          0          0

  Production            133          404        228        506        228        550

  MY Imports            136          149        10         0          15         0

  MY Imp. from U.S.     0            0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC   0            0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          269          553        238        506        243        550

  MY Exports            0            0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC     0            0          0          0          0          0

  Crush Dom.            251          535        222        490        228        535
  Consumption                                                                    

  Food Use Dom.         0            0          0          0          0          0
  Consump.                                                                       

  Feed,Seed,Waste       18           18         16         16         15         15
  Dm.Cn.                                                                         

  TOTAL Dom.            269          553        238        506        243        550
  Consumption                                                                    

  Ending Stocks         0            0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    269          553        238        506        243        550

  Calendar Year Imports 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to     0            0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                           
  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### Table 5: Rapeseed Production, Supply and Demand

  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity**         **Oilseed,                                    (1000 HA)  
                        Rapeseed**                                               

                                     2003                  2004                  2005

                        Official     Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year Begin**              10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Area Planted          0            0          0          0          0          0

  Area Harvested        282          107        290        117        300        110

  Beginning Stocks      0            0          0          0          0          0

  Production            235          159        241        173        260        160

  MY Imports            500          550        500        580        500        750

  MY Imp. from U.S.     0            0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC   0            0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          735          709        741        753        760        910

  MY Exports            0            0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC     0            0          0          0          0          0

  Crush Dom.            644          659        647        703        663        860
  Consumption                                                                    

  Food Use Dom.         0            0          0          0          0          0
  Consump.                                                                       

  Feed,Seed,Waste       91           50         94         50         97         50
  Dm.Cn.                                                                         

  TOTAL Dom.            735          709        741        753        760        910
  Consumption                                                                    

  Ending Stocks         0            0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    735          709        741        753        760        910

  Calendar Year Imports 635          550        0          580        0          750

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to     0            0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                           
  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

# 

### Table 6: Soybean Production, Supply and Demand

  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity**         **Oilseed,                                    (1000      
                        Soybean**                                     HA)(1000   
                                                                      MT)        

                                     2003                  2004                  2005

                        Official     Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year Begin**              10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Area Planted          0            0          0          0          0          0

  Area Harvested        2            2          2          2          2          2

  Beginning Stocks      0            0          0          0          0          0

  Production            2            2          2          2          2          2

  MY Imports            79           50         122        36         125        150

  MY Imp. from U.S.     11           11         10         0          10         100

  MY Imp. from the EC   0            0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          81           52         124        38         127        152

  MY Exports            0            0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC     0            0          0          0          0          0

  Crush Dom.            79           50         122        36         125        149
  Consumption                                                                    

  Food Use Dom.         0            0          0          0          0          0
  Consump.                                                                       

  Feed,Seed,Waste       2            2          2          2          2          3
  Dm.Cn.                                                                         

  TOTAL Dom.            81           52         124        38         127        152
  Consumption                                                                    

  Ending Stocks         0            0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    81           52         124        38         127        152

  Calendar Year Imports 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to     0            0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                           
  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

# 

# OIL MEAL

## Production 

MY 2005/06 oilseed meal production is forecast to decrease by 10
percent. Key Imported oilseeds will augment local supplies available for
domestic processing. The domestic crushing industry traditionally
produced a product consisting of 69 percent cottonseed, 16 percent
rapeseed, 12 percent sunflower seed and 3 percent soybean. With the
removal of the taxation anomaly on soybean meal, its import on a
commercial scale is possible during the current year. Import from India
does have a comparative advantage, but over the next 3-5 years, the
Pakistani feed sector will need to develop alternative sources of
soybean meal to meet expanding requirements. MY 2004/05-meal production
increased by 29 percent due to enhanced production of oilseeds in the
country.

## Consumption

MY 2005/06-meal shortages are expected to continue due to higher local
demand as competitiveness within and between the poultry and livestock
sectors drives producers to using higher-quality inputs in feed
formulations. This is most evident within the poultry sector, now in an
expansion mode to meet consumer demand for white meat perceived as a
healthy protein source. Traditional feed rations are inadequate and
contain little or no protein. Feed millers, increasingly conscious of
meal quality, are applying soybean meal at an inclusion rate of 15
percent, up from the traditional 5-7 percent, thus creating a demand for
higher quality protein meal. In the current budget the Government has
reduced taxes and duties on imported poultry feed ingredients. For
example duty on vitamins has decreased from 10 to 5 percent and the duty
on feed milling equipment has been zero rated from a previous 5 percent.
All poultry products are sales tax free.

## Trade

Among imported meals, soybean meal is the most common with India holding
the advantage in both price and freight. During MY 2005/06, soybean meal
imports are projected to increase in response to greater domestic
demand. Prospects of commercial trade with the USA is also forecast due
to the removal of the taxation anomaly by the Govt. of Pakistan. In past
years Pakistan has imported large quantities of soybeans under the
USDA's 416(b) and PL-480 programs, and that is expected to continue into
the future.

### 

### 

### Table 7: Total Oil Meal Production, Supply and Demand

  -------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Country:**         **Pakistan**                                               

  **Commodity:**       **TOTAL OIL                                                
                       MEALS**                                                    

                                      2003                  2004                  2005

                       Official       Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year                       10/2003    5173       10/2004               10/2005
  Begin**                                                                         

  Crush                3765           4139       122        5393       4641       4684

  Extr. Rate, 999.9999 0.485259       0.476927   20.41803   0.473577   0.484378   0.523303

  Beginning Stocks     0              0          0          0          0          0

  Production           1827           1974       2491       2554       2248       2292

  MY Imports           140            140        110        110        115        270

  MY Imp. from U.S.    0              0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC  0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY         1967           2114       2601       2664       2363       2562

  MY Exports           21             2          3          3          3          4

  MY Exp. to the EC    0              3          0          0          0          0

  Industrial Dom.      0              0          0          0          0          0
  Consum                                                                          

  Food Use Dom.        0              0          0          0          0          0
  Consump.                                                                        

  Feed Waste Dom.      1946           2112       2598       2661       2360       2558
  Consum                                                                          

  TOTAL Dom.           1946           2112       2598       2661       2360       2558
  Consumption                                                                     

  Ending Stocks        0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION   1967           2114       2601       2664       2363       2562

  Calendar Year        0              0          0          0          0          0
  Imports                                                                         

  Calendar Yr Imp.     0              0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                            

  Calendar Year        0              0          0          0          0          0
  Exports                                                                         

  Calndr Yr Exp. to    0              0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                            
  -------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### Table 8: Cottonseed Meal Production, Supply and Demand

  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity**         **Meal,                                         (1000 MT)  
                        Cottonseed**                                               

                                       2003                  2004                  2005

                        Official       Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate

  **Market Year Begin**                10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Crush                 2791           2791       4182       4182       3625       3140

  Extr. Rate, 999.9999  0.459692       0.459692   0.459828   0.460067   0.459862   0.459873

  Beginning Stocks      0              0          0          0          0          0

  Production            1283           1283       1923       1924       1667       1444

  MY Imports            0              0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from U.S.     0              0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC   0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          1283           1283       1923       1924       1667       1444

  MY Exports            0              0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC     0              0          0          0          0          0

  Industrial Dom.       0              0          0          0          0          0
  Consum                                                                           

  Food Use Dom.         0              0          0          0          0          0
  Consump.                                                                         

  Feed Waste Dom.       1283           1283       1923       1924       1667       1444
  Consum                                                                           

  TOTAL Dom.            1283           1283       1923       1924       1667       1444
  Consumption                                                                      

  Ending Stocks         0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    1283           1283       1923       1924       1667       1444

  Calendar Year Imports 0              0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 0              0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports 0              0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to     0              0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                             
  --------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### Table 9: Sunflower-seed Meal Production, Supply and Demand

  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity**         **Meal,                                       (1000 MT)  
                        Sun-seed**                                               

                                     2003                  2004                  2005

                        Official     Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   

  **Market Year Begin**              10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Crush                 251          653        222        506        228        535

  Extr. Rate, 999.9999  0.438247     0.437979   0.441441   0.440711   0.438596   0.438182

  Beginning Stocks      0            0          0          0          0          0

  Production            110          286        98         223        100        235

  MY Imports            0            0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from U.S.     0            0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC   0            0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          110          286        98         223        100        235

  MY Exports            21           0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC     0            0          0          0          0          0

  Industrial Dom.       0            0          0          0          0          0
  Consum                                                                         

  Food Use Dom.         0            0          0          0          0          0
  Consump.                                                                       

  Feed Waste Dom.       89           286        98         223        100        235
  Consum                                                                         

  TOTAL Dom.            89           286        98         223        100        235
  Consumption                                                                    

  Ending Stocks         0            0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    110          286        98         223        100        235

  Calendar Year Imports 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to     0            0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                           
  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### Table 10: Rapeseed Meal Production, Supply and Demand

  --------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity**         **Meal,                                      (1000 MT)  
                        Rapseed**                                               

                                    2003                  2004                  2005

                        Official    Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year Begin**             10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Crush                 644         659        647        703        663        860

  Extr. Rate, 999.9999  0.57764     0.576631   0.578053   0.577525   0.577677   0.577465

  Beginning Stocks      0           0          0          0          0          0

  Production            372         380        374        406        383        496

  MY Imports            0           0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from U.S.     0           0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC   0           0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          372         380        374        406        383        496

  MY Exports            2           2          3          3          3          6

  MY Exp. to the EC     0           0          0          0          0          0

  Industrial Dom.       0           0          0          0          0          0
  Consum                                                                        

  Food Use Dom.         0           0          0          0          0          0
  Consump.                                                                      

  Feed Waste Dom.       370         378        371        403        380        490
  Consum                                                                        

  TOTAL Dom.            370         378        371        403        380        490
  Consumption                                                                   

  Ending Stocks         0           0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    372         380        374        406        383        496

  Calendar Year Imports 0           0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 0           0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports 0           0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to     0           0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                          

                                                                                
  --------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### Table 11: Soybean Meal Production, Supply and Demand

  ----------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
                                     2003                  2004                  2005

                          Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year Begin**              10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Crush                   79         36         122        2          125        149

  Extr. Rate, 999.9999    0.78481    0.694444   0.786885   0.75       0.784      0.785235

  Beginning Stocks        0          0          0          0          0          0

  Production              62         25         96         1.5        98         117

  MY Imports              140        140        110        110        115        270

  MY Imp. from U.S.       0          0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC     0          0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY            202        165        206        111.5      213        387

  MY Exports              0          0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC       0          0          0          0          0          0

  Industrial Dom. Consum  0          0          0          0          0          0

  Food Use Dom. Consump.  0          0          0          0          0          0

  Feed Waste Dom. Consum  202        165        206        111.5      213        387

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption  202        165        206        111.5      213        387

  Ending Stocks           0          0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION      202        165        206        111.5      213        387

  Calendar Year Imports   0          0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S.   0          0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports   0          0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to U.S.  0          0          0          0          0          0
  ----------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

# OILS

## Production

Pakistan is a deficit producer of edible oil, able to meet only 30-40
percent of consumption requirements despite efforts by the government to
increase domestic production. MY 2005/06 oil productions is forecast to
decrease by one percent over the previous year based on anticipated
lower cottonseed and rapeseed production. As for domestic production,
cottonseed oil accounts for 49 percent, rapeseed oil for 27 percent, and
sunflower oil for 24 percent. The share of oil produced from domestic
oilseeds is expected to decrease due to low productivity of cottonseed.

## Consumption

MY 2005/06 edible oil consumption is forecast to increase by 4 percent
based on economic growth and population expansion. "Ghee" (i.e.,
shortening) which accounts for 70 percent of oil usage, is produced
totally from palm and cottonseed oil. There is a growing awareness of
the negative health effects of saturated oils, particularly palm oil,
and consumers are shifting, when they can afford it, from "ghee" to
liquid oils.

## Trade

Pakistan is one of the world's major vegetable oil importers. Imported
edible oils represent the fifth largest expenditure of foreign exchange
by the country. In effort to address the toll on the country's foreign
exchange reserve, the government is encouraging domestic production of
oilseeds and oil. Despite this rhetoric, production remains basically
stagnant. The domestic market structure is inefficient, thus returns on
oilseeds and by-products are weak and non-competitive with product
sourced from the international market.

Pakistan is a price-sensitive market with relative prices for oils
affecting the final import mix. Palm oil is the cheapest, thus the
principal oil imported. With palm oil suppliers offering \"flexibility\"
in contract terms and specifications the product is becoming even more
attractive. However, with growing consumer awareness of the health
qualities of vegetable oils, domestically produced liquid oils and a
small portion of soybean oil is expected to garner a larger share in the
Pakistani diet, at the expense of imported palm oil.

MY 2005/06 oil imports are forecast to increase by 7 percent to 1.48
MMT.

During MY 2004/05, oil imports remained 3 percent lower than the
previous year due to increased local oilseed production. Increased Palm
oil imports were attributed to greater availability of low-priced palm
Olean, which is often blended with other liquid oils. In June 2002 the
government lowered the import duty on palm Olean, making the duty at par
with soybean oil. At the same time the duty on sunflower and rapeseed
oils was raised which discouraged trade of such products.

### 

### 

### Table 12: Oil Tariffs and Taxes 

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
  Commodity               Custom Duty             Central Excise Duty

  RBD Palm Oil            Rs. 10,800              15 percent

  RBD Palm Olein          Rs. 9,100               15 percent

  RBD Soybean Oil         Rs. 10,200              15 percent

  RBD Sunflower Oil       Rs. 16,800              15 percent

  RBD Canola Oil          Rs. 18,000              15 percent

                                                  
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

Stock

Typically Pakistan retains oil stocks levels equivalent to two months
supply. Stocks are held

both by producers and traders.

### 

### Table 13: Total Oil Production, supply and Demand

  --------------------- -------------- ------------- ---------- ------------- --------- -------------
  **Country:**          **Pakistan**                                                    

  **Commodity:**        **TOTAL OILS**                                                  

                                       **2003**                 **2004**                **2005**

                        USDA Offic     Rev Est       USDA Offic Estimate      USDA      Forecast
                                                                              Offic     

  **Market Year Begin**                **10/2003**              **10/2004**             **10/2005**

  Crush                 3765           4021          5173       5393          4641      4684

  Extr. Rate            0.162284       0.179309      0.144597   0.159466      0.15083   0.175121

  Beginning Stocks      107            198           108        166           117       161

  Production            611            721           748        860           700       844

  MY Imports            1347           1420          1470       1382          1575      1480

  MY Imp. from U.S.     2              20            5          20            10        30

  MY Imp. from the EC   0              0             0          0             0         0

  **TOTAL SUPPLY**      2065           2339          2326       2408          2392      2485

  MY Exports            0              0             0          0             0         0

  MY Exp. to the EC     0              0             0          0             0         0

  Industrial Dom.       97             117           102        92            102       99
  Consum                                                                                

  Food Use Dom.         1782           2012          2024       2151          2081      2212
  Consump.                                                                              

  Feed Waste            28             70            31         17            32        32
  Dom.Consum.                                                                           

  **Total Dom.          1907           2199          2157       2260          2215      2343
  Consumption**                                                                         

  Ending Stocks         108            140           117        148           118       142

  **TOTAL               2015           2339          2274       2408          2333      2485
  DISTRIBUTION**                                                                        

  Calendar Year Imports 0              0             0          0             0         0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 0              0             0          0             0         0

  Calendar Year Exports 0              0             0          0             0         0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to     0              0             0          0             0         0
  U.S.                                                                                  

                                                                                        
  --------------------- -------------- ------------- ---------- ------------- --------- -------------

### Table 14: Cottonseed Oil Production, Supply and Demand

  ------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                                  

  **Country**         **Pakistan**                                               

  **Commodity**       **Oil,                                          (1000 MT)  
                      Cotseed**                                                  

                                     2003                  2004                  2005

                      Official       Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year                      10/2003               10/2004               10/2005
  Begin**                                                                        

  Crush               2791           2791       4182       4182       3625       3140

  Extr. Rate,         0.100681       0.100681   0.10067    0.10067    0.10069    0.100637
  999.9999                                                                       

  Beginning Stocks    10             10         10         15         13         13

  Production          281            281        421        421        365        316

  MY Imports          0              0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from U.S.   0              0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC 0              0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY        291            291        431        436        378        329

  MY Exports          0              0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC   0              0          0          0          0          0

  Industrial Dom.     26             26         29         27         28         27
  Consum                                                                         

  Food Use Dom.       252            262        385        409        335        302
  Consump.                                                                       

  Feed Waste Dom.     3              3          4          0          4          0
  Consum                                                                         

  TOTAL Dom.          281            276        418        396        367        319
  Consumption                                                                    

  Ending Stocks       10             15         13         13         11         10

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION  291            291        431        409        378        329

  Calendar Year       0              0          0          0          0          0
  Imports                                                                        

  Calendar Yr Imp.    0              0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                           

  Calendar Year       0              0          0          0          0          0
  Exports                                                                        

  Calndr Yr Exp. to   0              0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                           
  ------------------- -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### Table 15: Sunflower-seed Oil Production, Supply and Demand

  --------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity**         **Oil,                                       (1000 MT)  
                        Sunseed**                                               

                                    2003                  2004                  2005

                        Official    Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year Begin**             10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Crush                 251         535        222        506        228        535

  Extr. Rate, 999.9999  0.398406    0.398131   0.400901   0.401186   0.399123   0.4

  Beginning Stocks      3           0          4          4          5          5

  Production            100         213        89         203        91         214

  MY Imports            0           0          10         0          15         0

  MY Imp. from U.S.     0           0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC   0           0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          103         213        103        207        111        219

  MY Exports            0           0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC     0           0          0          0          0          0

  Industrial Dom.       0           0          0          0          0          0
  Consum                                                                        

  Food Use Dom.         99          209        98         202        100        214
  Consump.                                                                      

  Feed Waste Dom.       0           0          0          0          0          0
  Consum                                                                        

  TOTAL Dom.            99          209        98         202        100        214
  Consumption                                                                   

  Ending Stocks         4           4          5          5          5          5

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    103         213        103        207        105        219

  Calendar Year Imports 0           0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 0           0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports 0           0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to     0           0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                          
  --------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### Table 16: Rapeseed Oil Production, Supply and Demand

  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity**         **Oil,                                        (1000MT)   
                        Rapeseed**                                               

                                     2003                  2004                  2005

                        Official     Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year Begin**              10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Crush                 644          659        647        703        663        860

  Extr. Rate, 999.9999  0.335404     0.335357   0.335394   0.335704   0.334842   0.335211

  Beginning Stocks      16           15         17         17         17         17

  Production            216          221        217        236        222        288

  MY Imports            0            0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from U.S.     0            0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC   0            0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          232          236        234        253        239        305

  MY Exports            0            0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC     0            0          0          0          0          0

  Industrial Dom.       6            6          7          6          7          6
  Consum                                                                         

  Food Use Dom.         208          212        209        229        213        280
  Consump.                                                                       

  Feed Waste Dom.       1            1          1          1          1          1
  Consum                                                                         

  TOTAL Dom.            215          219        217        236        221        287
  Consumption                                                                    

  Ending Stocks         17           17         17         17         18         18

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    232          236        234        253        239        305

  Calendar Year Imports 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports 0            0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to     0            0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                           

                                                                                 
  --------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### Table 17: Soybean Oil Production, Supply and Demand

  --------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity**         **Oil,                                       (1000 MT)  
                        Soybean**                                               

                                    2003                  2004                  2005

                        Official    Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year Begin**             10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Crush                 79          36         122        2          125        149

  Extr. Rate, 999.9999  0.177215    0.166667   0.172131   0          0.176      0.174497

  Beginning Stocks      8           20         5          7          7          13

  Production            14          6          21         0          22         26

  MY Imports            50          50         60         85         60         80

  MY Imp. from U.S.     2           20         5          20         10         30

  MY Imp. from the EC   0           0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY          72          76         86         92         89         119

  MY Exports            0           0          0          0          0          0

  MY Exp. to the EC     0           0          0          0          0          0

  Industrial Dom.       10          2          10         2          10         3
  Consum                                                                        

  Food Use Dom.         55          66         67         76         69         98
  Consump.                                                                      

  Feed Waste Dom.       2           1          2          1          2          1
  Consum                                                                        

  TOTAL Dom.            67          69         79         79         81         102
  Consumption                                                                   

  Ending Stocks         5           7          7          13         8          17

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION    72          76         86         92         89         119

  Calendar Year Imports 0           0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S. 0           0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports 0           0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to     0           0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                          
  --------------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

### Table 18: Palm Oil Production, Supply and Demand

  ---------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **Commodity**          **Oil,                                      (1000 MT)  
                         Palm**                                                 

                                    2003                  2004                  2005

                         Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Forecast

  **Market Year Begin**             10/2003               10/2004               10/2005

  Area Planted           0          0          0          0          0          0

  Area Harvested         0          0          0          0          0          0

  Trees                  0          0          0          0          0          0

  Beginning Stocks       70         168        72         123        75         113

  Production             0          0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imports             1297       1370       1400       1297       1500       1400

  MY Imp. from U.S.      0          0          0          0          0          0

  MY Imp. from the EC    0          0          0          0          0          0

  TOTAL SUPPLY           1367       1538       1472       1420       1575       1513

  MY Exports             50         0          52         0          53         0

  MY Exp. to the EC      0          0          0          0          0          0

  Industrial Dom. Consum 55         62         56         57         57         61

  Food Use Dom. Consump. 1168       1338       1265       1235       1364       1316

  Feed Waste Consumption 22         15         24         15         25         15

  TOTAL Dom. Consumption 1245       1415       1345       1307       1446       1392

  Ending Stocks          72         123        75         113        76         121

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION     1367       1538       1472       1420       1575       1513

  Calendar Year Imports  0          0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Yr Imp. U.S.  0          0          0          0          0          0

  Calendar Year Exports  0          0          0          0          0          0

  Calndr Yr Exp. to U.S. 0          0          0          0          0          0
  ---------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------