[CRIS Project 5402-66000-005-00D]{.underline}

>  

Title: [ ]{.underline} Integrated Farm and Ranch Management Decision
Support System (iFARM DSS) (Started 08/06/2003, terminates 08/05/2008)

>  

**National Program Alignment:**

 

            NP 207 (70%), NP 205 (30%)

 

**FY 2005 Funding for GPSR:**

 

> Net to Location                                               
> \$799,107
>
> Indirect Research costs                                 \$  75,907
>
> Available for travel                                           \$ 
> 16,800
>
> Publications                                                    \$   
> 1,260
>
> Equipment                                                       \$ 
> 10,000
>
> Supplies and Materials                                    \$  28,303
>
> Extramural                                                      \$   
> 2,100
>
>  

**Scientists (2.85 FTE)**

 

            L. Ahuja, Lead
Scientist                                              .40

            J. Ascough
                                                                  .30

            G. Dunn, Project
Manager                                          .55

            T.
Green                                                                     
.20

            L. Ma
                                                                         
 .25

            G.
McMaster                                                               
.50

            Vacant -- plant stress
modeler                                    .65

           

**Support (5.44 FTE)**

>  
>
> A.
> Andales                                                                  
> 1.00
>
> L.
> Armand                                                                  
>   .42
>
> P.
> Bartling                                                                  
>   .80
>
> D.
> Edmunds                                                               
> 1.00
>
> J.
> Kozak                                                                     
>   .15
>
> D.
> Palic                                                                      
>   .70
>
> L.
> Sherrod                                                                  
>   .50
>
> C.
> Haehn                                                                    
>   .17
>
> B.
> Vandenberg                                                           
>   .70
>
>  

**Current and Future Objectives:**

 

Objective 1:  Develop a national integrated Farm And Ranch Decision
Support System (iFARM DSS) based on GPFARM (Great Plains Framework for
Agricultural Resource Management) for both strategic and tactical
management to maximize economic returns and minimize environmental
impacts on farms and ranches.

 

Objective 2.  Extend iFARM DSS to: a) include risk assessment and
management for variable and extreme weather; production and marketing
uncertainty; and insect, disease, and weed problems; and b) target
global climate change issues in the areas of carbon sequestration/
credits and greenhouse gas emissions.

 

Objective 3.  Apply DSS on selected farms and ranches for whole-farm
strategic and tactical management, risk assessment of alternative
management practices, and global climate change issues such as carbon
sequestration/credits and greenhouse gas emissions to demonstrate
feasibility of approach. Transfer technology to potential users.

 

**Guiding Hypotheses by objectives:**

 

1.         The existing GPFARM DSS can be used as the foundation for
developing a national strategic and tactical iFARM DSS to evaluate both
economic and environmental sustainability of agricultural systems
through incorporation of additional crops and animals, management
systems, and update of scientific concepts.

 

2.1       New theories, protocols, and tools for agricultural risk
assessment and management (e.g., probability distributions and
first-order uncertainty estimates for appropriate risk factors) and
their effects on crop yields and economics can be developed, modeled,
and evaluated to assist farmers/ranchers and action agencies with
economic and environmental risk analysis.

 

2.2              The effects of global climate change on whole farm
agricultural systems can be quantified through the modeling and tracking
of basic carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas
emission processes (including aggregation across individual soils and
fields) within the context of the iFARM DSS.

 

3.         Detailed evaluation of the iFARM DSS on producer farms for
strategic planning of crop/livestock selection and changes in overall
management (e.g. no-till vs. conventional tillage), tactical
decision-making (e.g., next- and in-season crop selections, herd makeup,
fertilizer management, etc.), and the risk of market and weather on
yield and profit can establish iFARM as a valuable asset to the farming
and ranching community and provide effective technology transfer.

 

**Expected Outcomes (Anticipated Products of the Research):**

 

\(1\) A national integrated farm and ranch decision support system for
use by farmers, ranchers, and agri-businesses to aid strategic and
tactical planning for selection of soil, water, crop, nutrient, and
grazing management strategies (including economic and environmental
sustainability). (2) Risk analysis tools for improved evaluation of
site-specific agricultural production systems. (3) Global climate change
tools for evaluating carbon and nutrient sequestration/credits and
greenhouse gas emissions.

 

 

 

 

**Major Discoveries/Accomplishments over the Life of the Project:**

 

A.         This is a new project and the accomplishments given below are
for FY04 thus far. This new project is being built upon its predecessor
project, the GPFARM DSS. We completed the development of GPFARM DSS in
FY03 and successfully delivered it to farmers and ranchers in the
Central Great Plains. Standardized management scenarios were created to
assist in initial set-up of the model.  A memorandum of understanding
(MOU) between the Colorado Association of Wheat Growers (CAWG) and
USDA-ARS was signed to allow CAWG to copy and distribute GPFARM as part
of CAWG's membership packet, Approximately 600 copies of GPFARM have
been distributed by CAWG. As part of the MOU with CAWG, GPSR scientists
conducted several training sessions for the around the state for CAWG
members.  GPSR benefits from the distribution and training by learning
more about how producers use the model and what changes the users would
like.   As a result of this success with CAWG, the Kansas Association of
Wheat Growers (KAWG) requested a similar agreement with ARS. This
agreement will result in the distribution of over 2000 copies of GPFARM
DSS in FY 2005.

 

B.         Several validation studies were conducted to test GPFARM DSS
performance in simulating field management over time on various cropping
and cow-calf productions systems. GPFARM was tested on irrigated
continuous-corn with management treatments including planting densities,
fertilizer and irrigation rates.  Over three years the model could
simulate corn yields and soil residual NO3-N without bias at the P\<.05
with 83% of the variation in corn yield explained by the model. (Shaffer
et.al. 2004).  Eleven dryland crop rotations were tested in cooperation
with the Central Great Plains Research Station, Akron, Co.  The
objective was to test GPFARM performance using 12 years of field data. 
Both strategic and tactical model performance were tested with the goal
of identifying areas for improvement in iFARM. GPFARM reproduced the
trend in crop production for all rotation treatments with the exception
of replant operations and complete yield failures. Year to year accuracy
varied among rotations. Preliminary recommendations for iFARM include
improved algorithms to simulate the effects of poor stand establishment,
precipitation timing, and complete yield failures. 

 

C.        The forage and cow-calf modules were re-parameterized and
tested against experimental data from northeastern Colorado and
southeastern Wyoming. It was demonstrated that they could accurately
simulate forage production and average cow and calf weights when
properly calibrated (Andales et al., 2005). The forage and cow-calf
modules, which were written in FORTRAN 90, have been re-programmed in
Java.  The new object-oriented modules will be easier to extend and
maintain.  A simple heat unit-based phenology component as well as a
steer animal class have been added to improve forage growth simulations
and allow simulation of stockers, respectively.  The object-based
modules also make it easier to simulate rotational grazing.  The Java
modules are readily converted into Object Modeling System (OMS) modules
for use in that Java-based platform.

 

D.        We have new modules for interception of rainwater by crop
canopies and crop residues on the soil surface, and linked them to soil
hydrology modules of RZWQM and future iFARM models. These modules are
then used to evaluate the effects of interceptions on soil water balance
and chemical movement for wheat-corn-fallow cropping system under
no-tillage at Akron, CO. We also developed modules for soil surface
depression storage of rainfall due to surface roughness, and for
detention storage due to crop residues, both of which are important in
increasing infiltration of water under conservation tillage systems
(Kozak et al. 2005, J. Hydrology). We are currently working on improving
simulation of the effects of residue cover on soil evaporation and
temperature. \[Common with WQ Spatial Project\].

 

E.         We have also greatly improved quantification and modeling of
management effects on soil properties and processes, with subsequent
effects on water quantity and quality, crop yield, and soil quality
(soil carbon). These improvements provide a more reliable simulation of
BMP effects on production and the environment. (See numerous
publications by Ahuja et al., Green et al., Ma et al., and coauthored
papers with our numerous collaborators in the publication list.)
\[Common with WQ Spatial Project\].

 

F.         Our long-term Specific Cooperative Agreement with Colorado
State University (Peterson, Westfall, Hansen), on evaluating no-till
cropping systems across a potential evapotranspiration gradient and
across soil landscape positions, continues to provide information and
data for iFARM development, and other projects. Current objectives of
this collaborative research are to i) evaluate if cropping sequences
with fewer and/or shorter fallow periods are feasible; ii) quantify the
relationships among climate, as represented by PET, soil type and
cropping system that involve fewer and/or shorter fallow periods; iii)
quantify the effects of long-term use of no-till management systems on
soil structural stability, micro-organisms and faunal populations, and
the organic C, N, and P content of the soil, as affected by cropping
intensification; iv) identify cropping or management systems that will
minimize soil erosion by crop residue maintenance; and v) develop a data
base across climate zones that will allow validation of iFARM DSS for
economic assessment of entire management systems. Long-term research
projects are critical to the understanding of how different cropping
systems with 2, 3 and 4 year rotation cycles are affected by climate and
soil gradients across yearly variations in weather.    

 

A great deal of progress has been made in each of these objectives over
the past 19 years.   Recent examples are two master degrees.  Timothy
Shaver submitted the thesis *Surface Soil Physical Properties After 12
Years of Dryland No-till Management* in the summer of 2000.  Lucretia
Sherrod submitted the thesis *Soil Organic Carbon Pools After 12 Years
in Dryland No-till Agroecosytems* in the summer of 2003.  Several papers
were published in scientific journals from this work along with
publications in proceedings.  Major discoveries are summarized in
Campbell et al. (2005, Sherrod et al. (2002, 2003, 2004), Andales et al.
(2003), Shaver et al. (2002, 2003), Farahani et al. (1998, 1999), Ma et
al. (1999) and Peterson et al. (1993).

 

**Anticipated Information Technologies for Customer:**

 

\(1\) State-of-the-science strategic and tactical planning software
tools (e.g., simulation models, economic budgeting, decision analysis,
etc.) delivered to producers and consultants, in order to realize
optimal economic returns while promoting environmental sustainability;
(2) New risk assessment tools that will allow producers to compare how
farm gross revenue distribution varies with expected variations in
weather and climate, known probabilities of natural hazards, and
uncertainty in management strategies; (3) New global change modeling
tools for estimating the effects of management practices on soil and
plant nutrient and carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions, as
well as the net effects of climate change on agriculture; and (4)
Comprehensive research and education tools for scientists and academia
that will provide new approaches and directions for interpreting,
quantifying, and technology transfer of experimental results, and for
teaching the complex interactions between process-based agricultural
system components.

 

**Milestones for the Next Four Years:**

 

**FY 2005:** we will identify science modules appropriate to the needs
of the IFARM application. Appropriate modules from the existing GPFARM
science in addition to newly identified components will be included in
the OMS (Object Modeling System) library. A prototype of iFARM
range/livestock component should be available in 2005 for initial
testing. **FY 2006:** we will develop new modules for risk assessment
and carbon sequestration, and add those to the OMS library.
Concurrently, as modules become available we will assemble them into a
comprehensive iFARM science package. In **FY 2007:** we will complete a
prototype iFARM DSS, that includes interface executing all DSS
components. As modules are added to the prototype, the expanded model
will be evaluated on the previously selected farms and ranches. **FY
2007-8:** we will test the whole iFARM DSS package on collaborator farms
and ranches. This DSS software will be available for making year-to-year
tactical cropping and ranch management decisions. Risk management
strategies and carbon cycling will be included for both tactical and
strategic planning.

 

**Relevance to ARS National Programs:**

 

The proposed research addresses the primary product goal of NP 207,
Integrated Agricultural Systems (IAS), to develop "Information and tools
for use by farmers and consultants in farm planning and decision-making
within the complex socioeconomic-physical-technical environment of the
farm or farms." The IAS National Program defines a set of attributes for
all IAS projects. The proposed project addresses to some extent all ten
attributes of the IAS-NP, including stakeholder participation, on-farm
research, risk assessment and management, and a database management
plan. This project will employ all four mechanisms suggested by the
IAS-NP for synthesis, evaluation, and transfer of information from other
National Programs, and will foster a national focus. A distinguishing
feature of this project is the integration of farm and ranch systems,
and effects of these systems on global climate change and vice versa.
The project also addresses a critical goal of NP 205, Rangelands,
Pasture, and Forages, Component 1: "Develop a science-based decision
support system for sustainable resource management." It also addresses a
very important component of NP 204, Global Climate Change: Synthesis and
Integration of Research Findings from all four components of the NP,
including development of a system-wide model and database management
needed by scientists and policy makers for assessing and managing the
net effects of global climate change.

 

**Research Quality, Capacity, and Unit's Leadership:**

 

The review of this project by the Office of Science Quality Review
(OSQR) panel gave it a "Very Good" rating, requiring minimal revisions.
This project is at the frontiers of the applications of science to the
needs of the society to address real world problems. Our Unit team has
the track record of accomplishing the development of large system models
RZWQM and GPFARM, and is thus emminently qualified to take on the new
challenges of iFARM. We realize, however, that the iFARM objectives are
ambitious and we do not have all the data and expertise therefore, our
planned collaboration with several other research groups is extremely
important. Our cooperative work with Colorado State University, Soil &
Crop Sciences (Peterson, Hansen, Westfall) and Agricultural Resources
Economics (Hoag), and with ARS Units in Colorado, Akron and Cheyenne/Ft.
Collins, are the key. Other national collaborations given below will be
important too. Our Unit priority is to fill our plant stress modeling
position with a bright scientist, with both knowledge and modeling
skills.

 

**National Collaborations:**

 

We will closely collaborate with the following ARS projects in
developing and testing new iFARM components with the help of their data:

 

1). Proj. No.: 5402-66000-005-06S  "Sustainable Dryland Agroecosystem
Management" with Colorado State University, Soil and Crop Sci. Dept.,
PI: Dr. Neil Hansen with Dr. Laj Ahuja, Fort Collins, CO.  Current
objectives and value of this project to iFARM development are given
under Accomplishments.

 

2\) Proj. No.: 1275-61660-003-05, NP: 207, "[Application Of
Computer-Aided Farm Decision Support Systems At The
Farm-Level](http://www.nps.ars.usda.gov/projects/projects.htm?accn_no=402949)",
PI: Reddy, Vangimalla, and Timlin, Dennis, Beltsville, MD.  Objective:
To deliver crop simulation models to farmers for making decisions
related to input optimization and crop management. Collect validation
data from cooperating farmers' fields to be used for model validation
and development of cultivar parameters files.

 

3\) Proj. No.: 5407-12130-005-00, NP: 202, 207, "[Dryland Cropping
Systems Management For The Central Great
Plains](http://www.nps.ars.usda.gov/projects/projects.htm?accn_no=404482)",
PI: Vigil, Merle, Akron, CO. Objective:  1. Develop sustainable dryland
cropping systems using minimum/no-till management, crop sequencing, crop
residue management, and pest management that increase crop yields, soil
quality/productivity, and provide economic stability while minimizing
environmental risk. 2. Quantify effects of crop species, tillage, crop
residue, soil fertility and pest management on soil quality, soil water
storage and use, carbon sequestration and long-term productivity of the
soil resource.

 

4\) Proj. No.: 5409-11000-002-12, NP: 204, 205, "[Colorado Crop Research
Project: Carbon, Water And Land-Use In Conservation Reserve Program
Lands Of The Shortgrass
Prairie](http://www.nps.ars.usda.gov/projects/projects.htm?accn_no=405031)"
PI: Morgan, Jack, Cheyenne, WY. Objective: As large areas of CRP land
approach the end of 10-year contracts, farmers may look to alternative
options for their land. What are the consequences of these various
options, in terms of seasonal and long-term carbon and water balance of
shortgrass prairie ecosystems and interactions with the regional
atmosphere? 

 

5\) Proj. No.: 5402-11000-006-00, NP: 202, 204, "[Land Use, Land Mgmt.
And Climate Change: Interactions Of C/N Cycle, Trace Gas Fluxes And Soil
Quality
Agroe](http://www.nps.ars.usda.gov/projects/projects.htm?accn_no=404255)cosystems"
PI: Mosier, Arvin, and Follett, Ron, Fort Collins, CO. Objective:
Research is to be directed to understanding basic processes of soil
carbon and nitrogen cycles, which will allow the results to be used to
develop solutions to a broad spectrum of problems.

 

In addition, we will also work with ARS units at Mandan, ND; Bushland,
TX; El-Reno, OK; our existing Colorado State University cooperators;
NRCS-ITC (Information Technology Center), Fort Collins, CO; and NRCS
offices in the Great Plains and Midwest.  We will keep contact with all
relevant university projects nationally. We are also starting
collaboration with Agrophysical Research Institute, St. Petersburg,
Russia on uncertainty in models.

 

**Technology Transfer Efforts (CRADAS, MOUs, SCA):**

 

GPFARM was officially released to central Great Plains farmers and
ranchers two years ago. The GPSR/GPFARM team has made numerous
presentations on GPFARM to various farm and ranch organizations over the
last three years. In particular, the Colorado Conservation Tillage
Association asked the team to use GPFARM to answer specific questions
and provide the results at their annual meetings. The team made several
presentations to the group over the last three years with attendance at
sessions going from 5 producers to over 40.

 

Successes with the Colorado Conservation Tillage Association lead to an
agreement (MOU) with the Colorado Association of Wheat Growers (CAWG) to
provide GPFARM in its membership packet. Approximately 600 copies of
GPFARM have been distributed by CAWG. The team facilitated this activity
and conducted several training sessions for the membership. As a result
of the team\'s success with CAWG, the Kansas Association of Wheat
Growers asked if they could develop a similar agreement with ARS. The
agreement will result in distribution of over 2000 copies of GPFARM. The
team is planning to conduct several training sessions to support this
distribution.

 

In 2004 GPFARM was included in the CSU extension service's Precision
Farming Program.  Demonstrations of the value of GPFARM in precision
farming were made at several extension organized field days throughout
Colorado.  The director of CSU's Precision Farming Program, Dr. Raj
Kosla, also teaches a course in agricultural technology and included a
lecture and lab practical using GPFARM in his course in October 2004. 
This lecture/lab presentation will become a regular feature of the
course and in the future will include iFARM as its development
progresses.

 

In December 2004 a group of CSU professors requested training in the use
of GPFARM.  The training was conducted in the new NRRC Building D
computer lab.  The professors from Soils and Crop Sciences and
Agriculture and Resource Economics plan to use GPARM in the classroom
and in research.

 

Decision Commerce Group of Billings, Montana, a research and development
company that serves the business consulting and information technology
communities, has expressed interest in signing a CRADA for the use of
GPFARM.  DCG plans to use GPFARM as consulting tool in conjunction with
some of their other software products.

 

Agren Inc. of Carroll, Iowa, has discussed plans to submit a joint
proposal with GPSR to USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) to develop a
drought management tool for producers of livestock grazing open range. 
The tool would be based on the forage growth model in the latest version
of GPFARM.

 

Because of the grassroots approach to transfer of GPFARM, evidence of
impact can only be gathered directly from the users. Many positive
comments have been received such as:

 

\(1\) \"GPFARM is a great tool that has allowed us to help producers and
banks evaluate the potential success of future rotations using specific
data, including climate and soils.\" 

 

\(2\) \"I compared historic and yield monitor yields with simulated
model output. I potentially saved \$2-5/acre of unnecessary input costs
(seed and fertilizer) on non-productive fields based on simulated model
output with my soil types.\" (1800 acres = \$3600 to \$9000 per year).

 

\(3\) \"Under low precipitation conditions my standard wheat-corn-fallow
and wheat-sunflower-fallow rotations were struggling. We used GPFARM to
look at the economics and feasibility of a continuous wheat-millet
rotation with no fallow.  The model output confirmed my thinking both
with the economics and productivity of the rotation.\"

 

\(4\) \"My standard rotation is a wheat-sunflower-fallow rotation. With
the consecutive dry years my APH for sunflowers has been decreasing. I
used GPFARM to look at cropping alternatives, specifically
wheat-corn-fallow. The model confirmed my decision to plant corn.\"

 

**Technology Transfer Internationally:**

 

> A.      In 2002, the GPSR team gave demonstrations of GPFARM to 60
> scientists in China.
>
>  
>
> B.     In 2004, Dr. Gale Dunn, the GPSR Technology Transfer
> Coordinator, was invited to Tunisia where he made several
> presentations on the use of GPFARM.

 

> C.     Several international scientists have visited the unit to learn
> about GPFARM.  From June to August, 2003, Dr. S. Chander, Indian
> Agricultural Res. Institute, New Delhi, compared GPFARM's crop growth
> and weeds module to his own model.

 

> D.     Dr. Chunsheng Hu, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of
> Agric. Modernization, Shijiazhung, spent 3 months in 2002 and 3 months
> in 2003-2004 learning about the livestock and forage production
> modules in GPFARM.

 

> E.     Dr. Qiang Yu, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of
> Geographic Sciences, Beijing, spent 2 weeks in 2001 and 6 months in 
> 2003 working with unit scientists to adapt GPFARM to Chinese
> agricultural conditions.