Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 11/10/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** AS5037

AS5037

**Australia**

**Dried Fruit**

**Annual**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Kathleen Wainio, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Mike Darby, Agricultural Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Australian dried vine fruit (DVF) production for 2006/07 is forecast at
26,500 MT, up 1,500 MT on the figure for the previous year. A glut of
grapes suitable for winemaking is expected to see competition from
winemakers fall but not dissipate completely. DVF exports for 2006/07
are forecast at 7,000 MT, an increase in line with the expected
production increase.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Annual Report

Canberra \[AS1\]

\[AS\]

Table of Contents

[SECTION ONE: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
2](#section-one-situation-and-outlook)

[General 2](#general)

[Production 2](#production)

[Exports 2](#exports)

[SECTION TWO: STATISTICAL TABLES 2](#section-two-statistical-tables)

# SECTION ONE: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

## General

The Australian dried fruit industry has been under much pressure over
the past decade. Increased imports have placed downward pressure on
prices and expansion in the wine industry has seen fierce competition
for grapes suitable for dried fruit production.

Industry sources believe now that the industry has stabilized and
believe that production is unlikely to fall far below current levels.
The glut of grapes suitable for wine production is likely to somewhat
arrest the diversion of DVF grapes to wine production. Industry sources
report prices as stable despite strong import levels.

Post does see production levels increasing dramatically over the medium
term and anticipates imports to continue increasing steadily beyond the
forecast period.

## Production

Australian dried vine fruit (DVF) production for 2006/07 is forecast at
26,500 MT, up 1,500 MT on the figure for the previous year. A glut of
grapes suitable for winemaking is expected to see competition from
winemakers fall but not dissipate completely. According to industry
sources, Australia DVF varieties are highly suited to blending with
premium variety wines, as they are high yielding and relatively
inexpensive.

DVF production for 2005/06 is estimated at 25,000 MT, down 5,000 MT from
the previous year. Industry sources blame a lack of "fruitfulness" for
reduced yields and production. Reduced land area due to urban expansion
has been identified as a minor influence on decreased production.

Post has revised its production number for 2004/05 downwards to 26,000
MT in line with recent industry figures.

## Exports

DVF exports for 2006/07 are forecast at 7,000 MT, up on the revised
number for the previous year. This increase is in line with anticipated
increases in production.

DVF exports for 2005/06 have been revised downwards to 6,000 MT
representing a historically low figure. Lower than anticipated
production has reduced the availability of DVF suitable for export while
a stronger Australian dollar has reduced export competitiveness.

According to official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Data, in
2004/05 Germany was the top export destination for Australian DVF
receiving 28 percent of Australian exports while the United Kingdom and
Italy received 17 and 10 percent respectively. The United States was
Australia's fourth largest export market receiving eight percent of
Australian DVF exports.

**Imports**

Imports of DVF in 2006/07 are forecast at 16,500 MT, down 1,500 MT on
the previous year but remaining at historically high levels. Post
anticipates imports to grow beyond the forecast period as they have over
the past decade.

According to Australian ABS data, 66 percent of DVF imports in 2004/05
were sourced from Turkey. Iran provided around 18 percent of imports
while the U.S. provided just less than eight percent.

**Policy**

In 2005 the Australian government recently announced a A\$556,000
assistance package for the Australian dried fruit sector. The assistance
package is designed to boost the industry's profitability,
sustainability and competitiveness.

The funding provided will cover projects reported as "developing
business skills", "improving technical resources", "improving industry
planning" and "identifying new market and promotion strategies".

Industry has committed to matching the governments contribution "dollar
for dollar" in a partnership agreement. Industry originally identified
these project areas by engaging a consultant to report on options for
redevelopment and restructuring.

Government assistance for the dried fruit industry was provided under
the *"Agriculture -- Advancing Australia"* package. This package, which
originally for one year at a total cost of A\$4.7 million, has now been
extended to a total of four years and A\$15 million.

# SECTION TWO: STATISTICAL TABLES

+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **PSD Table**    |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                  |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Raisins          |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                  | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | *    |
|                  | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM* |
|                  | 3** | ed** | 4** | te** | 5** | st** |      |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                  | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                  | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                  | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   | Of  | Es   |      |
|                  | fic | tima | fic | tima | fic | tima |      |
|                  | ial | te** | ial | te** | ial | te** |      |
|                  | \[O |      | \[O |      | \[O |      |      |
|                  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  | ld\ | **\  |      |
|                  | ]** | [New | ]** | [New | ]** | [New |      |
|                  |     | \]** |     | \]** |     | \]** |      |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Market Year    |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *    |
| Begin**          |     | 3/20 |     | 3/20 |     | 3/20 | MM/Y |
|                  |     | 04** |     | 05** |     | 06** | YYY* |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area Planted** | 24  | 24   | 23  | 22   | 0   | 20   | *(   |
|                  |     |      |     |      |     |      | HA)* |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Area           | 20  | 20   | 18  | 19   | 0   | 18   | *(   |
| Harvested**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | HA)* |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Beginning      | 1   | 1773 | 4   | 2211 | 2   | 3211 | *(   |
| Stocks**         | 773 |      | 973 |      | 973 |      | MT)* |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Production**   | 29  | 2    | 30  | 2    | 0   | 2    | *(   |
|                  | 000 | 6000 | 000 | 5000 |     | 6500 | MT)* |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Imports**      | 19  | 1    | 16  | 1    | 0   | 1    | *(   |
|                  | 700 | 5590 | 000 | 8000 |     | 6500 | MT)* |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY** | 50  | 4    | 50  | 4    | 2   | 4    | *(   |
|                  | 473 | 3363 | 973 | 5211 | 973 | 6211 | MT)* |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Exports**      | 10  | 7152 | 11  | 6000 | 0   | 7000 | *(   |
|                  | 000 |      | 000 |      |     |      | MT)* |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Domestic       | 35  | 3    | 37  | 3    | 0   | 3    | *(   |
| Consumption**    | 500 | 4000 | 000 | 6000 |     | 6000 | MT)* |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Ending         | 4   | 2211 | 2   | 3211 | 0   | 3211 | *(   |
| Stocks**         | 973 |      | 973 |      |     |      | MT)* |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL          | 50  | 4    | 50  | 4    | 0   | 4    | *(   |
| DISTRIBUTION**   | 473 | 3363 | 973 | 5211 |     | 6211 | MT)* |
+------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+