OŠ BANIJA,

dr. GAJA PETROVIĆA, 5

47 000 KARLOVAC

CROATIA

tel. 047/ 648 -- 172

e.mail: os-karlovac-001@skole.hinet.hr

INTERANCIONAL GLOBE CONFEDERATION

MEETINGS AND COMPETITIONS

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### QUERCUS ROBUR DURRING WINTER

BARKA KOMADINA, TEACHER

STUDENTS : ROBERTO HORVAT, 6. class

TIJANIĆ MONIKA, 6. class

KRISTINA FRANČINA, 6. class

# **HYPOTHESIS**

We have started from the hypothesis of global warming and its effect on
the growth of pest in

the wood of bay oaks ( Quercus Robur ). We will try to compare the
middle minimum and

maximum air temperatures in winter (January, February) during the two
year period (2002, 2003). We will compare the warmer an the colder
winter period and estimate the number of pests on the bay oak.We assume
that the invasion of the pests in the bay oak wood is much grater after
the warmer winter than after the colder one. We have decided to choose
the bay oak for our research as it is the dominant autochthones sort an
our pixel and it has been noticed that the hundred years have started to
wither ( partially or completely ). We will use the
diagnostic-prognostic method.

## RESEARCH METHODS

We visited the Globe data basis and on the Internet and searched the
measuring done by the students of Croation schools. We took the
measurement data of OŠ Banija for the winter (January, February) 2003 as
well as the data of OŠ Draganići for the air temperatures during the
winter periods of 2002 ( pct. 1 ) and 2003.

We compared the charts of establish the differences in temperature date
between the two

schools and tried to find out which winter period was colder and which
was warmer

To do our field research about the growth of pests on the bay oak we
went to the pixel of OŠ Draganići in the wood Draganićki lugari ( 45°35,
60\'N -- 15°39,90\'E ) pct. 1.

We also went to Ilovac wood near Karlovac where the pixel of OŠ Banija
is (45º 31,33N, 15º 33.02 E ). Both pixels are in the area of the plain
( lowlands ) forest near the Kupa river.

![](media/image2.png){width="1.6847222222222222in" height="2.375in"}

We took the first samples of the bay oak branches from the trees in the
wood on OŠ Draganići pixel on 31st January 2002. When we returned to
school we cut the branches diagonally and put them into jars with water
( pct. 2 ). During the next two months we changed the water twice. We
put the white paper under the jars to be able to see what wood fall from
the branches. The samples were kept in optimal adequate conditions:
there was enough sunlight, CO2, O2, water and the temperature between
20°C -- 22°C. We kept the diary for each sample, i.e. we noted all
phenological changes (pct. 3) and carefully watched the growth of
caterpillars-pests.

We took the other samples of bay oak branches from the wood and OŠ
Banija pixel in winter 2003. There was snow. We treated the samples as
before. We counted all the buds ( 250 ) on the samples to be able to
establish which of them would foliate, blossom or fail, i.e. how great
the defoliation caused by caterpillars would be. We examined all the
branch samples by mirerascape. A week later some excrements were noticed
as the white basis. They were the first signs of some activities on
branches.

By the end of the first month we noticed the appearance of caterpillars
and flies on the branch samples. We observed their color, size,
movement, feeding and rest and took some photos

( pct. 4a,b,c,d,e ). If caterpillar accidentally slipped it would hang
by a web thread and return to the same branch or move to another. In
case the web thread broke we would lift it by paint brush. The
caterpillars were mostly greedy so the flowers and leaves disappeared.
They caused the complete defoliation on some branch samples, as they
were most of them on these samples and on some samples the defoliation
was partial. In the photos (pct. 4 ) you can see the damage on the
flowers, leaves and buds. From some buds tiny flies appeared and the
buds were destroyed.

**DATA SURVEY**

1.  **[Part Measuring based on the Globe our temperature data
    basis]{.underline}**

Comparing the air temperatures in the (two year) winter periods we
established the facts that the colder winter period (January, February)
was in the year 2003 and the warmer in 2002.

The results are presented the chart through average minimum, maximum and
current temperatures

  ---------- --------- -------- ------------- -------- -------- ------------ -----------
  Šchool     Month     years    Average                         Winter       
                                middle                          evaluation   
                                temperature                                  
                                of air                                       

                                current       max.     min.     colder(-)    warmer(+)

  OŠBanija   I., II.   2003\.   0.7           3.3      -3.1     \-           

  OŠ Drag.   I., II.   2003\.   -4.2          5.7      -3.2     \-           

  OŠ Drag.   I., II.   2002\.   7.4           10.1     0.5                   \+
  ---------- --------- -------- ------------- -------- -------- ------------ -----------

chart 1. Based on average current, maximum and minimum temperature we
concluded that the winter in 2003 was colder and the winter in 2002
warmer.

It can be clearly seen in the charts showing the minimum air
temperatures where we noted all the temperatures below 0°C.Using graphs
of OŠ Banija and Draganici we determined next:

a\) out of 48 measures of minimal temperature done in the winter period
2003 36 were in the area below 0°C to --10°C ( colder winter -- OŠ
Banija)

b\) out of 37 meaning of minimal temperature done in the winter period
2002 24 were mostly in the area ranging from 0°C to --5°C ( warmer
winter -- OŠ Draganići )

c\) out of 46 measuring of minimal temperature done in the winter period
2003 42 were in the area ranging from below 0°C to --20°C ( colder
winter --OŠ Draganići )

![](media/image4.png){width="4.232638888888889in"
height="2.8222222222222224in"}

![](media/image5.png){width="1.875in" height="1.40625in"}

![](media/image7.png){width="1.625in" height="1.0965277777777778in"}

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![](media/image8.png){width="1.5in" height="1.0in"}

2.  **[Part: research on pests on the dominant sort of bay
    oak]{.underline}**

By close observation of the bay oak branch samples and noting the
changes we established the conditions of buds, foliation, flowering,
growth of caterpillars and defoliation ( chart 2 )

<table style="width:100%;">
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 20%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 11%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td>MONITORED PARAMETERS</td>
<td colspan="5"><p>OŠ DRAGANIĆ</p>
<p>WARMER WINTER 2002.G.</p></td>
<td>SUM</td>
<td colspan="5"><p>OŠ BANIJA</p>
<p>COLDER WINTER 2003.G.</p></td>
<td>SUM</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>BRANCH SAMPLES</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>5</td>
<td></td>
<td>A</td>
<td>B</td>
<td>C</td>
<td>D</td>
<td>E</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>SUM OF BUDS</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>48</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>246</td>
<td>49</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>48</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>250</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>SUM OF LEAVES</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>62</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>SUM OF FLOWERS</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>52</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>50</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>CATERPILLAR</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ------
  RUINED BUDS    30   37   22   21   20   130      20   43   19   30   22   134

  EATEN          18   5    13   5    9    50       6    6    4    4    7    27
  LEAV.,FLOW.                                                               

  REMAINING      12   6    20   14   14   66       23   11   25   8    18   85
  LEAV.,FLOW.                                                               
  -------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ------

Chart 2. The survey of the established condition of the branch samples
from the bay oak woods on pixels OŠ Draganići and OŠ Banija. According
to the number of leaves, flowers and buds the branches from both pixels
were at the beginning of our research approximately in the same
condition**.**

Comparing the warmer and the colder winter periods (January, February)
we can conclude that the greater number of buds will be destroyed during
the colder winter ( 54% ) then during the wormer winter ( 53% ). However
after a wormer winter a greater number of pests will grow and they will
eat more leaves ( 23% partially, 36% completely ) and more flowers ( 23%
) of the total number of the grown leaves and flowers. After the colder
winter that percentage is much smaller: 19% of completely eaten leaves,
15% of partially eaten leaves and 12% of eaten flowers. According to
there data we can conclude that the oak wood will progressively continue
to wither after the wormer winter. The other parameters influencing the
withering of the wood should be also observed ( anthropological
influence: man; changes in water regime, other biological

Our hypothesis that the invasion of caterpillars-pests in the bay oak
wood would be greater after a wormer winter was confirmed. It can be
seen by greater defoliation ( loss of leaves ) established on the branch
samples from the winter period 2003.

The complete defoliation accured on the sample "1". Besides, on the
sampler is picture 9a the defoliation is greater. We consider that
during the winter period a larger number of eggs survived

on there samples and later caterpillars appeared and ate the leaves
completely or partially. The plant without leaves cannot do
photosynthesis and so it withers. It is one of the causes of withering
of hundred years old trees of bay oak as well as its offspring. We
should seriously start thinking about the global warming which causes
warmer winters in our area and enables the survival of pest eggs (
caterpillar ). We research in only one parameter ( temperature ) which
had an effect on the growth of caterpillars, although there are more of
them ( the age of wood, pollution,... )

![](media/image10.wmf)Based on the established defoliation on the
observed samples we could predict which parts of the wood and when would
be exposed to a greater invasion of caterpillars in the period of
flowering and foliation. Thus the preventive and selective spraying
could be done in time to protect the trees from the pests --
caterpillars. The preventive spraying is important because in that case
we do not exterminate all the insects as many of them are useful

**DATA ANALYSIS**

1\. Comparing the charts of the minimum current and maximum
temperatures, as well as the

average minimum temperature we can conclude that Januray and February
2002 are wormer than the January amd February 2003.

2\. By observing the development ( growth ) of the pests -- caterpillar
during the colder and

during the wormer winter and the on the sample branches in indoor
conditions ( taking photos

and observing by microscope ) we can conclude that the number of the
pests -- caterpillar and

flies is greater in the colder winter period (January, February).

3\. The greater number of caterpillars caused the greater loss of leaves
resulting in withering of

bay oak (Quercus Robur ) in the region of Pokupski bazen: Draganićki,
Rečički, Pisarovinski I

Jastrebarski lugari.

**CONCLUSION**

The average minimum temperature in January and February 2002 was higher
than the average

minimum temperature in January and February 2003.

Lower minimum temperatures indicate the possibility of freezing the pest
eggs on the branches

and smaller invasion of the pest -- caterpillar.

Higher daily temperatures indicate on surviving of different pest ovums
and bigger invasion of pests -- caterpillar.

During the winter period it is important to predict the possible
invasion of the pest by using the

diagnostic -- prognostic method and prepare the protection.

We dind't use enough data for valuation of colder or warmer winter, but
we used year middles for the last century from which is visible global
warming.

Although in last 50 years avrange temperature was rising, this year
(2003) it was remarkably colder through January and February. So ve
caracterize it as an exception in global warming.

**DISCUSSION**

We have organized several discussions. The key questions important to
form opinions dial with

temperatures in global worming process.

WHAT ARE THE EFFECTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT?

WILL PESTS INVADE THE WOODS?

IS THE WITHERING OF HUNDRED YEAR OLD TREES POSSIBLE?

WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF ENVIROMENTAL POLLUTION ON THE QUERCUS ROBUR

WOOD?

WILL THE MICROCLIMATE CHANGE?

WHAT IS THE ROLE OF SCIENTIFIC TEAMS?

WHAT IS THE STUDENTS ROLE?

# **ABSTRACT**

Global warming is one of the causes of greater growth of pests on the
bay oak. Comparing the average minimum and maximum temperature in the
winter period (January, February) in years 2002 and 2003 we can
establish the fact that the 2003 winter was warmer. We took measuring
data for temperature from the Globe basis data of OŠ Banija and OŠ
Draganići. Our experiment with bay oak branch samples can confirm that
greater number of pests -- caterpillars appeared in the winter 2002. The
following pests grew : oak sawfly (APHETYMUS ABDOMINALIS), oak
leafroller (TOTRIX VIRIDANA), ichneuman wasp (MONODONTOMERUS AENEUS) and
some other pests. Using the diagnostic -- prognostic method we can
prodict a greater attack of the pests (catterpillar) on the bay oak wood
after a wormer winter. The great losses of leaves (defoliation) on bay
oak appeared after several consecutive warm winter. Due to the global
warming the withering of bay oak trees, even those several hundred years
old, is possible. The problem of global warming should be stressed, as
well as other human impacts on the environment of bay oak forests.

**LITERATURE LIST**

*[Studies]{.underline}:*Harapin, Miroslav: Radovi -- Nizinske šume
Pokupskog bazena, broj 1-2:

Utjecaj biotičkih čimbenika na sušenje šuma Pokupskog bazena. --
Jastrebarsko: Šumarski institut Jastrebarsko, Hrvatska, 1996., pages 131
-- 138, Zaključci pages 161, 170

Državni hidrometorološki zavod: Prikazi br. 11, Praćenje i ocjena klime
u 2001. godini,

pages 32 -34 and pages 2 -9

*[Magazines:]{.underline}*Tomić, I.: Hrvatske šume, br. 63.: Zabrana
uporabe pesticida bila bi katastrofa za šumarstvo.- Vijesnik d.d.
Zagreb: Hrvatske šume p.o., Zagreb, 2002.g., pages 5 - 9

*[Books]{.underline}:*Dr. Željko Kovačević: Primjenjena entomologija,
III. knjiga, Šumski štetnici

Zagreb 1956.g.