Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 10/25/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** AS4034

AS4034

**Australia**

**Dried Fruit**

**Annual**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Andrew C. Burst, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Mike Darby, Agricultural Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Dried vine fruit production is forecast to increase in 2005/06, assuming
average weather conditions. Dried vine fruit exports in 2005/06 are
forecast to increase, while imports are expected to decline, reflecting
the favorable 2005/06 production forecast.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Annual Report

Canberra \[AS1\]

\[AS\]

Table of Contents

[SECTION ONE: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
3](#section-one-situation-and-outlook)

[General 3](#general)

[Production 3](#production)

[Exports 4](#exports)

[Imports 4](#imports)

[Domestic Consumption 4](#domestic-consumption)

[Policy 4](#policy)

[Marketing 5](#marketing)

[SECTION TWO: STATISTICAL TABLES 6](#section-two-statistical-tables)

# SECTION ONE: SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

## General

The overwhelming majority of the dried vine fruit (DVF) industry is
located in the Sunraysia district, in far northwestern Victoria, with
the township of Mildura at its center. The crop is grown under
irrigation, with the growing region typically receiving only minimal
rainfall. DVF makes up the majority of Australia's dried fruit
production. DVF is defined as fruit produced from dried grapes,
including sultanas and raisins, but not currants.

The marketing year for DVF is March to February. The Australian DVF crop
is typically harvested in March and April and is marketed through to the
following February.

Supplies of grapes suitable for DVF production have been intensively
sought after by domestic wineries for wine production. In the past, this
has resulted in reduced deliveries of grapes for DVF production. More
recently, however, greater supplies of specialty wine grapes have
permitted some productive capacity to return to the DVF industry.
However, competition for fruit from the wine industry remains keen and a
constant threat to limit Australian DVF production.

## Production

DVF production in 2005/06 is forecast at 30,000 MT, three percent higher
than the revised figure for the previous year. Industry sources indicate
"bud burst" as above average and anticipate a good flowering. Post
assumes average weather conditions and adequate supplies of irrigation
water in arriving at this forecast. Drier conditions or constrained
irrigation water supplies would likely result in lower production.

DVF production for 2004/05 is estimated at 29,000 MT, down slightly on
Post's previous figure (see GAIN report #AS3036). Industry sources
describe growing season conditions as above average, with drying and
harvesting conditions near perfect. Consistently warm and dry weather
leading up to harvest allowed the crop to be harvested in excellent
condition.

Historical data provided by the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and
Resource Economics (ABARE) shows Australian DVF production in overall
decline over the last ten years.

![](media/image2.wmf)

*Source: ABARE*

## Exports

DVF exports in 2005/06 are forecast at 11,000 MT, up 10 percent from the
estimate for the previous year. Increased production and higher stock
levels are expected to boost the availability of fruit suitable for
export.

DVF exports for 2004/05 are estimated at 10,000 MT, sharply higher than
the previous estimate and 69 percent higher than the year-earlier
figure. Year-to-date (March-August) export figures show a significant
increase in exports, compared with the same period in the previous year.
The bulk of Australia's DVF exports are destined for Europe.

Historic data obtained from ABARE indicates Australian DVF exports in
general decline over the last 10 years, similar to the overall decline
in production over this period.

![](media/image3.wmf)

*Source: ABARE*

## Imports

DVF imports are forecast at 16,000 MT in 2005/06, down 19 percent from a
year earlier. Higher domestic production and higher domestically held
stocks are expected to trim import volumes. ABARE does not publish
historical import figures.

Imports in 2004/05 are estimated at 19,700 MT, up from the previous
figure and slightly higher than the previous year. Year-to-date
(March-August) figures show a rise from the same period for the previous
year. A diminished beginning stock level, caused by reduced production
in the previous year, and a stronger Australian dollar contributed to
higher DVF imports in 2004/05. Most of Australia's DVF imports are
traditionally sourced from Turkey and Iran; the United States is also a
significant supplier.

## Domestic Consumption

Official domestic consumption figures are unavailable.

## Policy

The DVF crop failure experienced in 2003/04 along with a similar failure
in 2001/02 has placed considerable pressure on the viability of the
Australian DVF industry.

In May 2003, the Australian Dried Fruits Association engaged consultants
to draft proposals for industry assistance measures with an aim to
identify ways to stimulate investment in new technologies and improved
performance of the industry. In March 2004, the Federal Government
announced funding of A\$60,000 to develop a new DVF grower training
program. A pilot training program is expected to commence in 2004/05.

[Australia-U.S. Free Trade Agreement]{.underline}: Australia and the
United States completed free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations in
February 2004. The FTA could be implemented as soon as January 1, 2005.
Currently, Australia maintains an import tariff of five percent on
raisins imported from the United States. Under the FTA, Australia's
tariff on imports from the United States would be eliminated
immediately, giving the United States preferential access into the
market.

## Marketing

**Horticulture Australia Limited (HAL)** is the horticulture industries'
service provision organization, which replaced the Australian
Horticultural Corporation (AHC) and the Horticultural Research and
Development Corporation (HRDC). HAL provides cooperative assistance to
the DVF industry through research and development and marketing
programs.

The Australian Dried Fruits Association (ADFA) represents the DVF
industry. Membership in this organization is voluntary and is open to
both growers and processors.

# SECTION TWO: STATISTICAL TABLES

+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| PSD Table        |      |       |      |       |      |       |      |
|                  |      |       |      |       |      |       |      |
| Raisins          |      |       |      |       |      |       |      |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
|                  | **20 | *     | **20 | **    | **20 | **    | *    |
|                  | 02** | *Revi | 03** | Estim | 04** | Forec | UOM* |
|                  |      | sed** |      | ate** |      | ast** |      |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
|                  | **   | *     | **   | *     | **   | *     |      |
|                  | USDA | *Post | USDA | *Post | USDA | *Post |      |
|                  | Offi | Est   | Offi | Est   | Offi | Est   |      |
|                  | cial | imate | cial | imate | cial | imate |      |
|                  | \    | \[Ne  | \    | \[Ne  | \    | \[Ne  |      |
|                  | [Old | w\]** | [Old | w\]** | [Old | w\]** |      |
|                  | \]** |       | \]** |       | \]** |       |      |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| **Market Year    |      | *     |      | *     |      | *     | *    |
| Begin**          |      | *03/2 |      | *03/2 |      | *03/2 | MM/Y |
|                  |      | 003** |      | 004** |      | 005** | YYY* |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| **Area Planted** | 25   | 25    | 24   | 24    | 0    | 23    | *(   |
|                  |      |       |      |       |      |       | HA)* |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| **Area           | 23   | 23    | 21   | 20    | 0    | 18    | *(   |
| Harvested**      |      |       |      |       |      |       | HA)* |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| **Beginning      | 4109 | 4109  | 1773 | 1773  | 3173 | 4973  | *(   |
| Stocks**         |      |       |      |       |      |       | MT)* |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| **Production**   | 1    | 16118 | 2    | 29000 | 0    | 30000 | *(   |
|                  | 6118 |       | 9500 |       |      |       | MT)* |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| **Imports**      | 1    | 19478 | 1    | 19700 | 0    | 16000 | *(   |
|                  | 9478 |       | 3900 |       |      |       | MT)* |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY** | 3    | 39705 | 4    | 50473 | 3173 | 50973 | *(   |
|                  | 9705 |       | 5173 |       |      |       | MT)* |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| **Exports**      | 5932 | 5932  | 7000 | 10000 | 0    | 11000 | *(   |
|                  |      |       |      |       |      |       | MT)* |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| **Domestic       | 3    | 32000 | 3    | 35500 | 0    | 37000 | *(   |
| Consumption**    | 2000 |       | 5000 |       |      |       | MT)* |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| **Ending         | 1773 | 1773  | 3173 | 4973  | 0    | 2973  | *(   |
| Stocks**         |      |       |      |       |      |       | MT)* |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+
| **TOTAL          | 3    | 39705 | 4    | 50473 | 0    | 50973 | *(   |
| DISTRIBUTION**   | 9705 |       | 5173 |       |      |       | MT)* |
+------------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+------+

+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| Import Trade     |                |                |                |
| Matrix           |                |                |                |
|                  |                |                |                |
| Raisins          |                |                |                |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| **Time Period**  | **Jan - Dec**  | **Units:**     | **MT**         |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| **Imports for:** | **2002**       |                | **2003**       |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| U.S.             | 1828           | U.S.           | 1073           |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| **Others**       |                | **Others**     |                |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| Turkey           | 10263          | Turkey         | 10037          |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| Greece           | 1835           | Iran           | 2568           |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| Iran             | 1693           | Chile          | 696            |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| South Africa     | 995            | South Africa   | 410            |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| Chile            | 916            | Greece         | 367            |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| Argentina        | 132            | China          | 106            |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|                  |                | Argentina      | 77             |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|                  |                | Lebanon        | 1              |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| **Total for      | **15834**      |                | **14262**      |
| Others**         |                |                |                |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| Others not       | 7              |                | 1              |
| Listed           |                |                |                |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
| **Grand Total**  | **17669**      |                | **15336**      |
+------------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+

+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Export Trade    |                 |                 |                 |
| Matrix          |                 |                 |                 |
|                 |                 |                 |                 |
| Raisins         |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Time Period** | **Jan - Dec**   | **Units:**      | **MT**          |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Exports       | **2002**        |                 | **2003**        |
| for:**          |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| U.S.            | 0               | U.S.            | 0               |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Others**      |                 | **Others**      |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Germany         | 2477            | Germany         | 2378            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| United Kingdom  | 1306            | United Kingdom  | 1554            |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Canada          | 812             | Canada          | 700             |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| New Zealand     | 556             | Italy           | 662             |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Japan           | 467             | New Zealand     | 585             |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Italy           | 370             | Japan           | 412             |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Netherlands     | 166             | Netherlands     | 331             |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Malaysia        | 139             | Malaysia        | 166             |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Bel             | 124             | Belgium         | 145             |
| gium-Luxembourg |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Taiwan          | 83              | Bel             | 124             |
|                 |                 | gium-Luxembourg |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for     | **6500**        |                 | **7057**        |
| Others**        |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others not      | 249             |                 | 342             |
| Listed          |                 |                 |                 |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand Total** | **6749**        |                 | **7399**        |
+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+