# **Appendix D**

# 

# 

# **Annual City-Specific Price and Purity Predictions Based on** 

# **City-Specific Price/Purity Models**

Table D.1. Predicted Price Per Gram of Powder Cocaine, Lowest Quantity
Level (Evaluated at 0.75 Grams) in Various Cities

<table style="width:100%;">
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
<td><strong>Atlanta</strong></td>
<td><strong> </strong></td>
<td><strong> </strong></td>
<td><strong>Chicago</strong></td>
<td><strong> </strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong> New York</strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong> San Diego </strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><h2 id="washington-dc"><strong>Washington
DC</strong></h2></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td> </td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>Year</strong></td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1981</td>
<td>380.31</td>
<td>632.48</td>
<td>1115.27</td>
<td>269.25</td>
<td>500.54</td>
<td>925.13</td>
<td>223.59</td>
<td>431.84</td>
<td>659.23</td>
<td>279.10</td>
<td>393.85</td>
<td>517.36</td>
<td>271.44</td>
<td>497.29</td>
<td>664.71</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1982</td>
<td>356.07</td>
<td>620.81</td>
<td>1387.83</td>
<td>315.54</td>
<td>609.54</td>
<td>1419.59</td>
<td>314.53</td>
<td>475.52</td>
<td>713.65</td>
<td>256.41</td>
<td>368.41</td>
<td>421.36</td>
<td>290.53</td>
<td>564.85</td>
<td>826.18</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1983</td>
<td>291.31</td>
<td>538.50</td>
<td>1001.97</td>
<td>260.42</td>
<td>434.54</td>
<td>647.57</td>
<td>207.48</td>
<td>332.04</td>
<td>473.68</td>
<td>217.25</td>
<td>305.06</td>
<td>399.27</td>
<td>296.54</td>
<td>424.32</td>
<td>584.30</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1984</td>
<td>227.99</td>
<td>487.70</td>
<td>787.64</td>
<td>273.16</td>
<td>464.49</td>
<td>846.95</td>
<td>148.64</td>
<td>266.35</td>
<td>494.32</td>
<td>231.78</td>
<td>302.12</td>
<td>431.56</td>
<td>242.79</td>
<td>323.57</td>
<td>441.92</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1985</td>
<td>234.71</td>
<td>429.51</td>
<td>793.37</td>
<td>231.35</td>
<td>368.05</td>
<td>531.23</td>
<td>128.58</td>
<td>235.19</td>
<td>359.97</td>
<td>256.53</td>
<td>314.54</td>
<td>392.88</td>
<td>206.25</td>
<td>272.36</td>
<td>294.69</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1986</td>
<td>181.13</td>
<td>344.07</td>
<td>605.37</td>
<td>181.18</td>
<td>365.32</td>
<td>732.65</td>
<td>95.37</td>
<td>195.49</td>
<td>342.16</td>
<td>187.31</td>
<td>245.74</td>
<td>286.95</td>
<td>203.10</td>
<td>241.79</td>
<td>270.22</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1987</td>
<td>147.37</td>
<td>308.22</td>
<td>630.68</td>
<td>92.71</td>
<td>212.07</td>
<td>474.84</td>
<td>79.30</td>
<td>195.55</td>
<td>273.73</td>
<td>135.71</td>
<td>186.37</td>
<td>242.88</td>
<td>171.05</td>
<td>208.64</td>
<td>246.20</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1988</td>
<td>132.51</td>
<td>248.01</td>
<td>453.23</td>
<td>87.94</td>
<td>195.99</td>
<td>375.96</td>
<td>84.70</td>
<td>179.43</td>
<td>324.26</td>
<td>67.58</td>
<td>154.26</td>
<td>222.31</td>
<td>125.38</td>
<td>163.83</td>
<td>201.80</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1989</td>
<td>115.59</td>
<td>226.70</td>
<td>464.32</td>
<td>108.26</td>
<td>177.94</td>
<td>272.12</td>
<td>81.20</td>
<td>124.71</td>
<td>183.25</td>
<td>94.60</td>
<td>148.97</td>
<td>230.59</td>
<td>103.77</td>
<td>156.64</td>
<td>240.84</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1990</td>
<td>143.32</td>
<td>305.20</td>
<td>611.65</td>
<td>106.64</td>
<td>201.72</td>
<td>444.05</td>
<td>79.77</td>
<td>117.11</td>
<td>201.27</td>
<td>92.05</td>
<td>167.32</td>
<td>276.97</td>
<td>138.34</td>
<td>193.84</td>
<td>267.59</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1991</td>
<td>119.71</td>
<td>240.50</td>
<td>490.01</td>
<td>112.75</td>
<td>160.20</td>
<td>303.27</td>
<td>62.43</td>
<td>99.17</td>
<td>177.18</td>
<td>78.16</td>
<td>130.41</td>
<td>221.22</td>
<td>120.93</td>
<td>183.43</td>
<td>290.57</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1992</td>
<td>93.00</td>
<td>170.42</td>
<td>340.55</td>
<td>78.15</td>
<td>144.83</td>
<td>280.37</td>
<td>48.73</td>
<td>75.14</td>
<td>106.54</td>
<td>61.23</td>
<td>102.03</td>
<td>209.36</td>
<td>91.66</td>
<td>160.96</td>
<td>247.17</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1993</td>
<td>83.87</td>
<td>173.52</td>
<td>391.32</td>
<td>80.21</td>
<td>132.75</td>
<td>210.72</td>
<td>60.68</td>
<td>94.94</td>
<td>221.62</td>
<td>52.55</td>
<td>101.52</td>
<td>228.44</td>
<td>92.85</td>
<td>173.93</td>
<td>289.32</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1994</td>
<td>86.85</td>
<td>174.42</td>
<td>366.59</td>
<td>69.01</td>
<td>135.69</td>
<td>286.64</td>
<td>55.16</td>
<td>77.78</td>
<td>120.69</td>
<td>51.64</td>
<td>115.40</td>
<td>203.12</td>
<td>76.58</td>
<td>130.78</td>
<td>278.77</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1995</td>
<td>100.41</td>
<td>210.98</td>
<td>428.11</td>
<td>79.58</td>
<td>166.08</td>
<td>334.77</td>
<td>58.82</td>
<td>115.74</td>
<td>242.54</td>
<td>58.81</td>
<td>90.95</td>
<td>127.96</td>
<td>82.73</td>
<td>209.69</td>
<td>418.43</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1996</td>
<td>80.71</td>
<td>174.36</td>
<td>376.21</td>
<td>51.47</td>
<td>136.05</td>
<td>294.15</td>
<td>61.25</td>
<td>118.30</td>
<td>238.37</td>
<td>34.64</td>
<td>94.22</td>
<td>176.65</td>
<td>66.33</td>
<td>132.85</td>
<td>230.06</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1997</td>
<td>91.20</td>
<td>171.36</td>
<td>314.31</td>
<td>72.29</td>
<td>142.95</td>
<td>245.60</td>
<td>49.84</td>
<td>105.29</td>
<td>169.26</td>
<td>51.35</td>
<td>112.12</td>
<td>236.83</td>
<td>66.86</td>
<td>136.18</td>
<td>238.94</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1998</td>
<td>77.73</td>
<td>153.94</td>
<td>336.67</td>
<td>61.61</td>
<td>128.38</td>
<td>264.71</td>
<td>41.89</td>
<td>89.14</td>
<td>190.69</td>
<td>43.08</td>
<td>80.50</td>
<td>130.54</td>
<td>68.30</td>
<td>141.04</td>
<td>302.40</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1999</td>
<td>75.84</td>
<td>182.52</td>
<td>320.24</td>
<td>51.77</td>
<td>115.65</td>
<td>237.71</td>
<td>43.77</td>
<td>94.95</td>
<td>172.21</td>
<td>45.10</td>
<td>84.42</td>
<td>154.75</td>
<td>70.46</td>
<td>112.05</td>
<td>155.61</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>2000</td>
<td>83.32</td>
<td>182.21</td>
<td>436.13</td>
<td>66.04</td>
<td>152.29</td>
<td>341.01</td>
<td>53.83</td>
<td>145.08</td>
<td>372.87</td>
<td>49.54</td>
<td>108.78</td>
<td>254.64</td>
<td>64.51</td>
<td>142.86</td>
<td>331.63</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>2001</td>
<td>94.19</td>
<td>199.38</td>
<td>400.19</td>
<td>76.02</td>
<td>141.11</td>
<td>312.91</td>
<td>62.71</td>
<td>117.10</td>
<td>226.68</td>
<td>63.25</td>
<td>128.11</td>
<td>241.00</td>
<td>72.90</td>
<td>144.27</td>
<td>304.31</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>2002</td>
<td>65.63</td>
<td>147.94</td>
<td>335.21</td>
<td>35.55</td>
<td>106.24</td>
<td>262.12</td>
<td>39.07</td>
<td>85.86</td>
<td>169.68</td>
<td>29.89</td>
<td>76.50</td>
<td>195.74</td>
<td>50.81</td>
<td>123.91</td>
<td>265.87</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>2003*</td>
<td>54.19</td>
<td>121.71</td>
<td>211.71</td>
<td>42.93</td>
<td>93.18</td>
<td>165.61</td>
<td>41.71</td>
<td>81.12</td>
<td>125.49</td>
<td>32.39</td>
<td>59.28</td>
<td>85.52</td>
<td>41.93</td>
<td>93.38</td>
<td>161.09</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

**\*** 2003 prices are based on information from only the first two
quarters of the year and thus are likely to be updated in future
reports.

Note: These predicted prices are based on econometric models estimated
for quarters, not years. We transformed the prices from quarterly to
annual by taking the average for the "predicted" and taking the minimum
"lower bound" and maximum "upper bound" for the 95 percent confidence
intervals. All prices are adjusted for inflation and reported in 2002
dollars. Estimates to the penny are provided to facilitate
replication/confirmation and are not intended to be meaningfully
interpreted, given how broad the uncertainty bands are.

Source: System to Retrieve Information on Drug Evidence (STRIDE).

Prepared by the RAND Corporation, April 2004.

Table D.2. Predicted Purity of Powder Cocaine, Lowest Quantity Level
(Evaluated at 0.75 Grams) in Various Cities

  ---------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- ------------- ------- -------- --------- ------- --------- --------- ------- -------------- --------- -------
                     **Atlanta**   ** **   ** **   **Chicago**   ** **   **New                      **San                       **Washington             
                                                                         York**                     Diego**                     DC**                     

             Lower                 Upper   Lower                 Upper   Lower              Upper   Lower               Upper   Lower                    Upper

  **Year**   Bound   Average       Bound   Bound   Average       Bound   Bound    Average   Bound   Bound     Average   Bound   Bound          Average   Bound

  1981       0.06    0.30          0.56    0.15    0.41          0.72    0.15     0.36      0.62    0.37      0.53      0.69    0.09           0.28      0.57

  1982       0.12    0.34          0.55    0.18    0.41          0.61    0.21     0.46      0.77    0.47      0.58      0.70    0.11           0.29      0.44

  1983       0.17    0.38          0.65    0.28    0.45          0.65    0.31     0.53      0.77    0.47      0.62      0.76    0.26           0.40      0.52

  1984       0.28    0.44          0.64    0.34    0.47          0.62    0.41     0.59      0.79    0.44      0.63      0.80    0.26           0.37      0.45

  1985       0.21    0.42          0.61    0.32    0.44          0.60    0.33     0.56      0.80    0.48      0.60      0.71    0.27           0.34      0.42

  1986       0.29    0.55          0.83    0.26    0.55          0.86    0.50     0.69      0.91    0.63      0.78      0.97    0.30           0.41      0.52

  1987       0.43    0.68          0.89    0.49    0.71          0.91    0.53     0.74      0.97    0.66      0.82      0.94    0.41           0.51      0.64

  1988       0.32    0.64          0.89    0.54    0.73          0.94    0.47     0.73      0.94    0.72      0.87      1.05    0.50           0.62      0.76

  1989       0.32    0.60          0.80    0.52    0.72          0.92    0.45     0.69      0.92    0.65      0.82      0.96    0.44           0.61      0.78

  1990       0.24    0.51          0.72    0.30    0.54          0.73    0.43     0.62      0.84    0.50      0.72      0.90    0.29           0.46      0.61

  1991       0.31    0.55          0.79    0.43    0.59          0.85    0.40     0.60      0.89    0.54      0.76      0.98    0.42           0.63      0.74

  1992       0.34    0.62          0.85    0.40    0.66          0.88    0.46     0.69      0.88    0.59      0.80      1.02    0.32           0.53      0.75

  1993       0.40    0.62          0.83    0.48    0.67          0.88    0.50     0.67      0.91    0.59      0.81      1.01    0.37           0.62      0.84

  1994       0.34    0.59          0.82    0.40    0.65          0.87    0.52     0.67      0.88    0.59      0.79      1.01    0.28           0.57      0.66

  1995       0.23    0.53          0.74    0.29    0.59          0.79    0.33     0.64      0.86    0.44      0.73      0.85    0.19           0.48      0.68

  1996       0.39    0.66          0.97    0.45    0.71          1.03    0.47     0.72      1.05    0.61      0.85      1.13    0.30           0.58      0.84

  1997       0.31    0.59          0.84    0.37    0.65          0.90    0.44     0.69      0.90    0.47      0.76      1.00    0.36           0.56      0.77

  1998       0.34    0.62          0.83    0.40    0.68          0.88    0.44     0.70      0.92    0.62      0.80      0.98    0.33           0.59      0.80

  1999       0.32    0.59          0.86    0.34    0.61          0.88    0.41     0.64      0.92    0.52      0.77      0.97    0.43           0.61      0.77

  2000       0.29    0.53          0.76    0.34    0.59          0.81    0.43     0.67      0.87    0.48      0.74      0.95    0.25           0.51      0.73

  2001       0.23    0.50          0.79    0.28    0.57          0.84    0.32     0.58      0.88    0.46      0.68      0.92    0.19           0.47      0.75

  2002       0.34    0.62          0.89    0.39    0.68          0.94    0.48     0.74      0.94    0.54      0.78      1.08    0.34           0.59      0.86

  2003       0.37    0.62          0.85    0.42    0.66          0.90    0.52     0.75      0.94    0.60      0.82      1.01    0.33           0.59      0.80
  ---------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- ------------- ------- -------- --------- ------- --------- --------- ------- -------------- --------- -------

\*2003 expected purities are based on information from only the first
two quarters of the year and thus are likely to be updated in future
reports.

Note: These predicted purities are based on econometric models estimated
for quarters, not years. We transformed the prices from quarterly to
annual by taking the average for the "predicted" and taking the minimum
"lower bound" and maximum "upper bound" for the 95 percent confidence
intervals.

Source: System to Retrieve Information on Drug Evidence (STRIDE).

Prepared by the RAND Corporation, April 2004.

**Table D.3. Predicted Price Per Gram of Crack Cocaine, Lowest Quantity
Level (Evaluated at 0.3 Grams) in Various Cities**

<table style="width:100%;">
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
<td><strong>Atlanta</strong></td>
<td><strong> </strong></td>
<td><strong> </strong></td>
<td><strong>Chicago</strong></td>
<td><strong> </strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong> New York </strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong> San Diego </strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><h2 id="washington-dc-1"><strong>Washington
DC</strong></h2></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td> </td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>Year</strong></td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1986</td>
<td>158.18</td>
<td>342.05</td>
<td>644.34</td>
<td>118.87</td>
<td>264.56</td>
<td>471.33</td>
<td>119.61</td>
<td>179.19</td>
<td>240.41</td>
<td>129.56</td>
<td>278.54</td>
<td>358.79</td>
<td>260.56</td>
<td>397.54</td>
<td>478.65</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1987</td>
<td>107.35</td>
<td>323.68</td>
<td>605.45</td>
<td>80.66</td>
<td>237.71</td>
<td>443.02</td>
<td>119.01</td>
<td>300.11</td>
<td>585.29</td>
<td>127.31</td>
<td>214.45</td>
<td>235.03</td>
<td>193.21</td>
<td>270.47</td>
<td>349.55</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1988</td>
<td>116.01</td>
<td>233.79</td>
<td>477.32</td>
<td>87.16</td>
<td>162.48</td>
<td>314.31</td>
<td>69.27</td>
<td>162.94</td>
<td>352.67</td>
<td>135.80</td>
<td>180.60</td>
<td>249.75</td>
<td>159.17</td>
<td>180.32</td>
<td>195.97</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1989</td>
<td>86.59</td>
<td>207.94</td>
<td>346.67</td>
<td>73.11</td>
<td>148.72</td>
<td>299.22</td>
<td>76.43</td>
<td>138.13</td>
<td>247.06</td>
<td>124.66</td>
<td>174.08</td>
<td>229.60</td>
<td>152.25</td>
<td>172.90</td>
<td>194.10</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1990</td>
<td>111.45</td>
<td>242.71</td>
<td>521.33</td>
<td>83.76</td>
<td>198.84</td>
<td>381.22</td>
<td>111.79</td>
<td>163.61</td>
<td>242.05</td>
<td>116.34</td>
<td>194.14</td>
<td>326.69</td>
<td>190.34</td>
<td>217.95</td>
<td>245.65</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1991</td>
<td>76.99</td>
<td>192.51</td>
<td>379.50</td>
<td>61.72</td>
<td>152.70</td>
<td>209.88</td>
<td>70.50</td>
<td>119.46</td>
<td>274.49</td>
<td>93.16</td>
<td>169.28</td>
<td>315.26</td>
<td>166.55</td>
<td>174.91</td>
<td>181.38</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1992</td>
<td>97.92</td>
<td>218.02</td>
<td>419.40</td>
<td>90.21</td>
<td>175.94</td>
<td>430.30</td>
<td>82.11</td>
<td>127.50</td>
<td>192.08</td>
<td>80.65</td>
<td>148.90</td>
<td>343.87</td>
<td>154.55</td>
<td>178.51</td>
<td>199.06</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1993</td>
<td>87.07</td>
<td>186.93</td>
<td>353.92</td>
<td>85.98</td>
<td>131.92</td>
<td>183.36</td>
<td>73.66</td>
<td>119.70</td>
<td>174.40</td>
<td>67.40</td>
<td>142.86</td>
<td>265.14</td>
<td>155.23</td>
<td>175.77</td>
<td>192.16</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1994</td>
<td>90.76</td>
<td>168.75</td>
<td>336.26</td>
<td>74.69</td>
<td>139.64</td>
<td>271.38</td>
<td>76.85</td>
<td>107.85</td>
<td>140.64</td>
<td>75.20</td>
<td>113.88</td>
<td>142.42</td>
<td>123.75</td>
<td>171.06</td>
<td>202.57</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1995</td>
<td>89.94</td>
<td>180.92</td>
<td>383.22</td>
<td>61.81</td>
<td>126.60</td>
<td>309.53</td>
<td>79.52</td>
<td>154.34</td>
<td>231.96</td>
<td>84.01</td>
<td>125.23</td>
<td>168.31</td>
<td>163.25</td>
<td>189.81</td>
<td>231.87</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1996</td>
<td>80.08</td>
<td>160.67</td>
<td>319.20</td>
<td>61.85</td>
<td>145.02</td>
<td>336.07</td>
<td>59.10</td>
<td>118.34</td>
<td>180.13</td>
<td>63.70</td>
<td>144.10</td>
<td>252.27</td>
<td>104.19</td>
<td>155.77</td>
<td>216.43</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1997</td>
<td>87.61</td>
<td>200.46</td>
<td>438.14</td>
<td>65.87</td>
<td>142.80</td>
<td>320.37</td>
<td>104.95</td>
<td>175.21</td>
<td>237.76</td>
<td>67.84</td>
<td>145.20</td>
<td>328.17</td>
<td>134.57</td>
<td>185.27</td>
<td>229.21</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1998</td>
<td>91.31</td>
<td>154.98</td>
<td>313.39</td>
<td>60.93</td>
<td>118.81</td>
<td>229.12</td>
<td>63.66</td>
<td>122.40</td>
<td>226.57</td>
<td>62.75</td>
<td>129.76</td>
<td>208.72</td>
<td>137.63</td>
<td>153.86</td>
<td>166.35</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1999</td>
<td>72.99</td>
<td>181.63</td>
<td>368.81</td>
<td>76.34</td>
<td>132.49</td>
<td>254.14</td>
<td>81.32</td>
<td>152.93</td>
<td>276.32</td>
<td>77.71</td>
<td>167.13</td>
<td>276.21</td>
<td>135.23</td>
<td>153.41</td>
<td>160.95</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>2000</td>
<td>110.20</td>
<td>244.16</td>
<td>564.85</td>
<td>109.31</td>
<td>172.92</td>
<td>219.79</td>
<td>85.42</td>
<td>215.20</td>
<td>349.12</td>
<td>76.31</td>
<td>128.12</td>
<td>214.48</td>
<td>135.29</td>
<td>170.08</td>
<td>209.04</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>2001</td>
<td>98.69</td>
<td>252.39</td>
<td>370.80</td>
<td>74.21</td>
<td>124.93</td>
<td>246.94</td>
<td>109.19</td>
<td>196.06</td>
<td>279.19</td>
<td>76.43</td>
<td>143.27</td>
<td>252.95</td>
<td>143.20</td>
<td>168.34</td>
<td>202.07</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>2002</td>
<td>87.69</td>
<td>171.96</td>
<td>308.79</td>
<td>66.45</td>
<td>134.95</td>
<td>231.41</td>
<td>70.68</td>
<td>121.62</td>
<td>219.74</td>
<td>67.89</td>
<td>150.00</td>
<td>227.05</td>
<td>119.72</td>
<td>147.71</td>
<td>163.39</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>2003*</td>
<td>85.35</td>
<td>163.89</td>
<td>295.58</td>
<td>72.78</td>
<td>123.18</td>
<td>111.67</td>
<td>113.72</td>
<td>221.66</td>
<td>228.59</td>
<td>66.08</td>
<td>140.70</td>
<td>221.39</td>
<td>126.60</td>
<td>183.51</td>
<td>256.63</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

**\*** 2003 prices are based on information from only the first two
quarters of the year and thus are likely to be updated in future
reports.

Note: These predicted prices are based on econometric models estimated
for quarters, not years. We transformed the prices from quarterly to
annual by taking the average for the "predicted" and taking the minimum
"lower bound" and maximum "upper bound" for the 95 percent confidence
intervals. All prices are adjusted for inflation and reported in 2002
dollars. Estimates to the penny are provided to facilitate
replication/confirmation and are not intended to be meaningfully
interpreted, given how broad the uncertainty bands are.

Source: System to Retrieve Information on Drug Evidence (STRIDE).

Prepared by the RAND Corporation, April 2004.

**Table D.4. Predicted Purity of Crack Cocaine, Lowest Quantity Level
(Evaluated at 0.3 Grams) in Various Cities**

  ---------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- --------- ------- ------- --------- ------- ------- -------------- -------
                     **Atlanta**   ** **   ** **   **Chicago**   ** **   ** **   **New     ** **   ** **   **San     ** **   ** **   **Washington    
                                                                                 York**                    Diego**                   DC**           

             Lower                 Upper   Lower                 Upper   Lower             Upper   Lower             Upper   Lower                  Upper

  **Year**   Bound   Average       Bound   Bound   Average       Bound   Bound   Average   Bound   Bound   Average   Bound   Bound   Average        Bound

  1986       0.67    0.86          1.00    0.67    0.84          0.99    0.73    0.88      1.00    0.74    0.88      0.99    0.46    0.72           0.88

  1987       0.62    0.85          1.00    0.60    0.82          1.00    0.69    0.87      1.00    0.47    0.74      1.00    0.62    0.79           0.90

  1988       0.69    0.88          1.00    0.66    0.86          1.00    0.62    0.85      1.00    0.77    0.90      1.00    0.75    0.82           0.90

  1989       0.75    0.88          1.00    0.72    0.86          0.98    0.78    0.88      0.99    0.76    0.89      0.99    0.79    0.84           0.86

  1990       0.66    0.82          0.98    0.64    0.81          0.97    0.75    0.86      1.00    0.71    0.84      0.96    0.71    0.76           0.81

  1991       0.73    0.87          1.00    0.73    0.86          0.98    0.76    0.89      1.00    0.72    0.88      1.00    0.80    0.83           0.86

  1992       0.68    0.83          0.99    0.68    0.81          0.94    0.67    0.84      0.98    0.67    0.85      0.99    0.74    0.81           0.85

  1993       0.67    0.82          0.97    0.62    0.78          0.90    0.71    0.86      0.98    0.68    0.84      0.97    0.70    0.75           0.78

  1994       0.69    0.84          0.98    0.68    0.81          0.93    0.74    0.84      0.98    0.71    0.85      0.94    0.70    0.76           0.84

  1995       0.59    0.77          0.91    0.59    0.74          0.87    0.65    0.80      0.93    0.58    0.73      0.83    0.60    0.68           0.75

  1996       0.60    0.77          0.92    0.59    0.74          0.88    0.65    0.80      0.94    0.63    0.78      0.90    0.59    0.72           0.82

  1997       0.52    0.72          0.85    0.50    0.71          0.86    0.63    0.79      0.89    0.53    0.75      0.88    0.54    0.64           0.70

  1998       0.62    0.77          0.92    0.56    0.74          0.89    0.61    0.77      0.92    0.64    0.77      0.91    0.63    0.68           0.73

  1999       0.57    0.72          0.87    0.55    0.70          0.84    0.62    0.76      0.88    0.60    0.74      0.87    0.50    0.64           0.71

  2000       0.54    0.69          0.82    0.50    0.60          0.70    0.59    0.70      0.84    0.59    0.72      0.82    0.55    0.61           0.68

  2001       0.53    0.68          0.82    0.51    0.66          0.79    0.59    0.72      0.86    0.54    0.68      0.81    0.56    0.60           0.64

  2002       0.57    0.71          0.85    0.56    0.68          0.82    0.61    0.76      0.86    0.58    0.71      0.83    0.59    0.64           0.73

  2003       0.62    0.76          0.89    0.58    0.73          0.87    0.66    0.76      0.87    0.62    0.75      0.89    0.60    0.67           0.70
  ---------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- --------- ------- ------- --------- ------- ------- -------------- -------

\* 2003 expected purities are based on information from only the first
two quarters of the year and thus are likely to be updated in future
reports.

Note: These predicted purities are based on econometric models estimated
for quarters, not years. We transformed the prices from quarterly to
annual by taking the average for the "predicted" and taking the minimum
"lower bound" and maximum "upper bound" for the 95 percent confidence
intervals.

Source: System to Retrieve Information on Drug Evidence (STRIDE).

Prepared by the RAND Corporation, April 2004.

**Table D.5. Predicted Price Per Gram of Heroin, Lowest Quantity Level
(Evaluated at 0.4 Grams) in Various Cities**

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 5%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
<td><strong>Atlanta</strong></td>
<td><strong> </strong></td>
<td><strong> </strong></td>
<td><strong>Chicago</strong></td>
<td><strong> </strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong> New York </strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><strong> San Diego </strong></td>
<td colspan="3"><p id="washington-dc-2" class="heading">Washington
DC</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td> </td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
<td>Lower</td>
<td></td>
<td>Upper</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>Year</strong></td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Bound</td>
<td>Average</td>
<td>Bound</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1981</td>
<td>640.01</td>
<td>1284.54</td>
<td>2782.55</td>
<td>638.75</td>
<td>2010.17</td>
<td>3027.40</td>
<td>295.53</td>
<td>651.24</td>
<td>979.50</td>
<td>879.59</td>
<td>1494.09</td>
<td>2180.85</td>
<td>981.82</td>
<td>1429.86</td>
<td>1826.68</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1982</td>
<td>604.32</td>
<td>1180.29</td>
<td>2199.18</td>
<td>543.00</td>
<td>1396.51</td>
<td>3330.40</td>
<td>209.51</td>
<td>732.18</td>
<td>1874.98</td>
<td>783.22</td>
<td>1075.07</td>
<td>1376.76</td>
<td>759.26</td>
<td>1291.04</td>
<td>1796.90</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1983</td>
<td>571.31</td>
<td>1092.65</td>
<td>2932.05</td>
<td>525.78</td>
<td>1314.00</td>
<td>2680.63</td>
<td>399.06</td>
<td>692.32</td>
<td>941.68</td>
<td>704.65</td>
<td>1186.54</td>
<td>1708.74</td>
<td>840.28</td>
<td>1870.81</td>
<td>3085.53</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1984</td>
<td>432.68</td>
<td>908.92</td>
<td>1804.25</td>
<td>391.63</td>
<td>1042.69</td>
<td>2479.53</td>
<td>584.37</td>
<td>1093.55</td>
<td>1853.18</td>
<td>587.22</td>
<td>821.09</td>
<td>1166.99</td>
<td>461.29</td>
<td>1047.55</td>
<td>2059.78</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1985</td>
<td>338.82</td>
<td>961.34</td>
<td>3271.90</td>
<td>418.88</td>
<td>961.66</td>
<td>1900.58</td>
<td>495.72</td>
<td>927.89</td>
<td>1578.15</td>
<td>637.18</td>
<td>1017.65</td>
<td>1444.89</td>
<td>446.38</td>
<td>892.13</td>
<td>1394.93</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1986</td>
<td>248.01</td>
<td>763.42</td>
<td>2282.28</td>
<td>460.85</td>
<td>1038.53</td>
<td>2369.28</td>
<td>439.40</td>
<td>977.36</td>
<td>1517.80</td>
<td>501.33</td>
<td>849.06</td>
<td>1157.41</td>
<td>839.88</td>
<td>1226.20</td>
<td>1636.08</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1987</td>
<td>373.22</td>
<td>865.66</td>
<td>1882.38</td>
<td>455.33</td>
<td>1193.79</td>
<td>2390.38</td>
<td>465.97</td>
<td>972.50</td>
<td>947.08</td>
<td>416.39</td>
<td>769.95</td>
<td>1428.79</td>
<td>577.82</td>
<td>930.12</td>
<td>1098.10</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1988</td>
<td>407.46</td>
<td>609.20</td>
<td>831.65</td>
<td>380.50</td>
<td>743.92</td>
<td>1361.73</td>
<td>405.80</td>
<td>549.26</td>
<td>670.23</td>
<td>294.52</td>
<td>560.76</td>
<td>804.73</td>
<td>441.00</td>
<td>732.95</td>
<td>1155.30</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1989</td>
<td>297.90</td>
<td>576.37</td>
<td>979.45</td>
<td>434.23</td>
<td>797.69</td>
<td>1192.00</td>
<td>450.63</td>
<td>573.45</td>
<td>725.15</td>
<td>380.47</td>
<td>613.67</td>
<td>1041.53</td>
<td>316.02</td>
<td>613.06</td>
<td>958.28</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1990</td>
<td>274.78</td>
<td>689.21</td>
<td>1155.13</td>
<td>389.55</td>
<td>834.18</td>
<td>1396.08</td>
<td>472.10</td>
<td>596.61</td>
<td>692.20</td>
<td>258.92</td>
<td>601.34</td>
<td>1456.10</td>
<td>565.19</td>
<td>1048.66</td>
<td>1757.68</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1991</td>
<td>391.82</td>
<td>556.00</td>
<td>889.43</td>
<td>314.83</td>
<td>566.55</td>
<td>1280.80</td>
<td>410.63</td>
<td>482.46</td>
<td>557.03</td>
<td>596.44</td>
<td>801.32</td>
<td>1070.86</td>
<td>569.58</td>
<td>877.17</td>
<td>1315.48</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1992</td>
<td>237.78</td>
<td>489.50</td>
<td>961.10</td>
<td>235.28</td>
<td>462.93</td>
<td>613.43</td>
<td>335.75</td>
<td>444.47</td>
<td>553.45</td>
<td>423.38</td>
<td>609.66</td>
<td>803.90</td>
<td>540.25</td>
<td>762.84</td>
<td>1010.85</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1993</td>
<td>322.53</td>
<td>481.24</td>
<td>611.38</td>
<td>230.25</td>
<td>469.23</td>
<td>931.95</td>
<td>300.76</td>
<td>378.36</td>
<td>450.80</td>
<td>260.97</td>
<td>424.99</td>
<td>547.98</td>
<td>548.71</td>
<td>690.58</td>
<td>869.68</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1994</td>
<td>354.13</td>
<td>481.93</td>
<td>615.85</td>
<td>339.78</td>
<td>493.39</td>
<td>663.00</td>
<td>275.57</td>
<td>346.96</td>
<td>411.30</td>
<td>304.15</td>
<td>397.00</td>
<td>498.03</td>
<td>567.04</td>
<td>734.72</td>
<td>1015.53</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1995</td>
<td>321.83</td>
<td>424.11</td>
<td>535.55</td>
<td>315.00</td>
<td>501.59</td>
<td>650.70</td>
<td>268.60</td>
<td>316.86</td>
<td>366.75</td>
<td>190.00</td>
<td>300.83</td>
<td>371.75</td>
<td>443.25</td>
<td>626.37</td>
<td>814.28</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1996</td>
<td>329.19</td>
<td>427.05</td>
<td>568.45</td>
<td>197.60</td>
<td>403.34</td>
<td>601.65</td>
<td>272.64</td>
<td>369.98</td>
<td>463.83</td>
<td>229.23</td>
<td>316.31</td>
<td>519.84</td>
<td>446.66</td>
<td>662.00</td>
<td>859.00</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1997</td>
<td>239.61</td>
<td>410.34</td>
<td>730.38</td>
<td>173.03</td>
<td>382.46</td>
<td>713.58</td>
<td>248.11</td>
<td>309.40</td>
<td>406.20</td>
<td>149.63</td>
<td>252.31</td>
<td>328.91</td>
<td>457.93</td>
<td>679.15</td>
<td>1021.90</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1998</td>
<td>293.33</td>
<td>369.64</td>
<td>442.18</td>
<td>208.70</td>
<td>330.91</td>
<td>515.40</td>
<td>260.16</td>
<td>329.18</td>
<td>381.68</td>
<td>172.44</td>
<td>230.36</td>
<td>264.52</td>
<td>304.82</td>
<td>429.41</td>
<td>468.38</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>1999</td>
<td>282.58</td>
<td>452.24</td>
<td>1104.10</td>
<td>225.00</td>
<td>334.84</td>
<td>525.28</td>
<td>255.56</td>
<td>344.20</td>
<td>467.25</td>
<td>146.33</td>
<td>222.04</td>
<td>341.82</td>
<td>294.46</td>
<td>374.41</td>
<td>400.98</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>2000</td>
<td>293.43</td>
<td>370.22</td>
<td>459.80</td>
<td>195.53</td>
<td>327.61</td>
<td>471.38</td>
<td>225.99</td>
<td>292.72</td>
<td>415.70</td>
<td>156.88</td>
<td>239.34</td>
<td>349.52</td>
<td>317.08</td>
<td>425.92</td>
<td>589.38</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>2001</td>
<td>293.78</td>
<td>385.75</td>
<td>566.60</td>
<td>186.95</td>
<td>267.30</td>
<td>373.15</td>
<td>231.51</td>
<td>284.30</td>
<td>324.85</td>
<td>125.80</td>
<td>192.38</td>
<td>249.47</td>
<td>245.03</td>
<td>334.09</td>
<td>478.80</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>2002</td>
<td>287.44</td>
<td>373.87</td>
<td>478.58</td>
<td>155.80</td>
<td>293.61</td>
<td>440.25</td>
<td>228.70</td>
<td>280.39</td>
<td>325.80</td>
<td>158.98</td>
<td>209.02</td>
<td>253.90</td>
<td>230.02</td>
<td>329.79</td>
<td>428.73</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>2003</td>
<td>251.83</td>
<td>370.48</td>
<td>532.55</td>
<td>154.00</td>
<td>216.74</td>
<td>215.38</td>
<td>120.84</td>
<td>231.92</td>
<td>297.90</td>
<td>118.46</td>
<td>209.93</td>
<td>480.21</td>
<td>230.43</td>
<td>298.96</td>
<td>398.73</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

\* 2003 Prices are based on information from only the first two quarters
of the year and thus are likely to be updated in future reports.

Note: These predicted prices are based on econometric models estimated
based on quarters, not years. We transformed the prices from quarterly
to annual by taking the average for the "predicted" and taking the
minimum "lower bound" and maximum "upper bound" for the 95 percent
confidence intervals. All prices are adjusted for inflation and reported
in 2002 dollars. Estimates to the penny are provided to facilitate
replication/confirmation and are not intended to be meaningfully
interpreted, given how broad the uncertainty bands are.

Source: System to Retrieve Information on Drug Evidence (STRIDE).

Prepared by the RAND Corporation, April 2004.

Table D.6. Predicted Purity of Heroin, Lowest Quantity Level (Evaluated
at 0.4 Grams) in Various Cities

  ---------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- --------- ------- ------- --------- ------- ------- -------------- -------
                     **Atlanta**   ** **   ** **   **Chicago**   ** **   ** **   **New     ** **   ** **   **San     ** **   ** **   **Washington    
                                                                                 York**                    Diego**                   DC**           

             Lower                 Upper   Lower                 Upper   Lower             Upper   Lower             Upper   Lower                  Upper

  **Year**   Bound   Average       Bound   Bound   Average       Bound   Bound   Average   Bound   Bound   Average   Bound   Bound   Average        Bound

  1981       0.00    0.06          0.27    0.00    0.00          0.19    0.12    0.25      0.38    0.00    0.15      0.37    0.00    0.05           0.11

  1982       0.00    0.15          0.40    0.00    0.04          0.30    0.16    0.29      0.43    0.11    0.23      0.36    0.01    0.08           0.25

  1983       0.00    0.08          0.36    0.00    0.02          0.26    0.10    0.25      0.45    0.06    0.19      0.40    0.00    0.10           0.31

  1984       0.00    0.11          0.43    0.00    0.07          0.36    0.10    0.33      0.57    0.07    0.26      0.45    0.00    0.19           0.40

  1985       0.00    0.18          0.51    0.00    0.07          0.32    0.15    0.36      0.57    0.10    0.31      0.50    0.00    0.11           0.28

  1986       0.00    0.20          0.55    0.00    0.11          0.42    0.22    0.40      0.58    0.03    0.36      0.61    0.00    0.11           0.19

  1987       0.00    0.19          0.51    0.00    0.08          0.35    0.15    0.38      0.61    0.08    0.19      0.32    0.01    0.15           0.31

  1988       0.02    0.16          0.28    0.00    0.11          0.28    0.35    0.45      0.56    0.15    0.33      0.54    0.05    0.17           0.29

  1989       0.04    0.20          0.43    0.00    0.18          0.42    0.36    0.47      0.56    0.24    0.44      0.64    0.00    0.28           0.55

  1990       0.00    0.13          0.24    0.00    0.08          0.22    0.30    0.43      0.50    0.04    0.32      0.53    0.02    0.15           0.22

  1991       0.00    0.24          0.38    0.00    0.14          0.26    0.43    0.51      0.61    0.05    0.27      0.43    0.01    0.17           0.32

  1992       0.09    0.32          0.51    0.00    0.19          0.40    0.41    0.61      0.81    0.12    0.35      0.56    0.04    0.18           0.33

  1993       0.09    0.30          0.43    0.09    0.31          0.46    0.58    0.69      0.80    0.27    0.43      0.60    0.11    0.23           0.35

  1994       0.25    0.44          0.61    0.04    0.22          0.38    0.53    0.63      0.71    0.34    0.51      0.67    0.10    0.21           0.33

  1995       0.35    0.52          0.60    0.12    0.26          0.42    0.60    0.72      0.85    0.25    0.48      0.67    0.14    0.28           0.41

  1996       0.21    0.40          0.55    0.00    0.29          0.45    0.41    0.56      0.68    0.22    0.47      0.58    0.13    0.23           0.33

  1997       0.19    0.42          0.69    0.13    0.30          0.50    0.45    0.64      0.77    0.15    0.48      0.68    0.12    0.23           0.34

  1998       0.37    0.53          0.65    0.12    0.32          0.41    0.50    0.63      0.75    0.38    0.56      0.66    0.14    0.28           0.38

  1999       0.42    0.55          0.65    0.13    0.29          0.46    0.47    0.62      0.77    0.37    0.55      0.71    0.16    0.23           0.29

  2000       0.25    0.44          0.61    0.09    0.24          0.38    0.52    0.63      0.76    0.36    0.52      0.69    0.12    0.23           0.33

  2001       0.26    0.46          0.60    0.05    0.22          0.36    0.45    0.60      0.69    0.29    0.45      0.59    0.12    0.21           0.30

  2002       0.23    0.43          0.64    0.04    0.20          0.41    0.49    0.61      0.70    0.34    0.47      0.58    0.13    0.23           0.34

  2003       0.26    0.43          0.59    0.08    0.20          0.31    0.36    0.58      0.74    0.20    0.43      0.67    0.03    0.19           0.30
  ---------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- --------- ------- ------- --------- ------- ------- -------------- -------

\* 2003 expected purities are based on information from only the first
two quarters of the year and thus are likely to be updated in future
reports.

Note: These predicted purities are based on econometric models estimated
based on quarters, not years. We transformed the prices from quarterly
to annual by taking the average for the "predicted" and taking the
minimum "lower bound" and maximum "upper bound" for the 95 percent
confidence intervals.

Source: System to Retrieve Information on Drug Evidence (STRIDE).

Prepared by the RAND Corporation, April 2004.

Table D.7. Predicted Price Per Gram of Methamphetamine, Middle Quantity
Level (Evaluated at 27.5 Grams) in Various Cities

  ---------- ------- ----------- -------- ------- ------------- -------- ------- --------- -------- ------- ------------- --------
                     **Los       ** **    ** **   **Phoenix**   ** **    ** **   **San     ** **    ** **   **San         
                     Angeles**                                                   Diego**                    Francisco**   

             Lower               Upper    Lower                 Upper    Lower             Upper    Lower                 Upper

  **Year**   Bound   Average     Bound    Bound   Average       Bound    Bound   Average   Bound    Bound   Average       Bound

  1981       29.70   58.88       116.29   35.75   71.09         140.83   29.37   57.84     113.51   41.43   82.09         162.04

  1982       40.56   77.47       138.35   48.81   93.53         167.63   40.11   86.08     164.35   69.36   119.96        194.92

  1983       32.65   78.69       189.16   39.30   95.01         229.11   32.28   82.34     184.52   58.08   118.04        263.59

  1984       43.08   96.41       147.14   51.83   123.99        209.24   71.08   125.33    170.46   60.09   131.31        205.08

  1985       26.83   81.02       173.95   32.28   89.54         207.32   26.54   87.28     179.66   49.86   105.03        191.65

  1986       34.85   91.25       183.55   41.93   122.82        275.87   30.81   92.92     177.74   48.58   127.20        255.85

  1987       41.55   73.61       125.74   49.99   96.23         152.31   60.94   80.37     105.27   57.93   105.12        163.31

  1988       33.00   61.49       118.78   41.65   72.81         143.93   46.63   59.99     72.87    46.00   88.99         151.86

  1989       33.08   63.23       120.01   39.80   81.20         138.17   43.93   60.00     85.59    49.10   97.03         178.04

  1990       49.62   108.45      241.31   66.41   143.82        292.46   62.80   108.28    189.36   66.39   153.02        336.44

  1991       44.42   107.03      236.91   67.73   133.17        243.14   58.76   88.01     136.84   61.92   152.27        330.30

  1992       32.87   63.74       100.95   39.54   78.34         145.41   42.27   56.92     73.03    45.82   95.41         138.16

  1993       25.62   52.14       84.64    30.73   60.43         121.27   33.08   49.86     76.71    35.72   70.41         139.50

  1994       21.40   35.35       62.60    24.96   43.74         72.20    26.97   35.58     42.53    28.14   48.52         76.34

  1995       25.82   60.03       174.89   25.97   68.66         200.40   23.24   53.25     145.87   31.24   77.82         243.84

  1996       25.64   58.37       96.53    38.90   66.61         106.27   34.71   55.21     75.39    34.96   76.86         122.24

  1997       23.83   41.71       75.26    38.32   53.09         73.15    29.17   36.31     43.20    33.69   52.14         81.37

  1998       36.25   68.83       121.06   45.16   89.79         146.75   36.01   69.47     99.62    44.07   91.87         163.09

  1999       41.24   66.82       107.76   37.72   72.15         97.81    46.27   57.86     71.07    49.81   86.97         126.45

  2000       32.04   53.70       80.68    33.38   59.21         105.29   38.44   48.69     61.85    44.66   78.63         129.92

  2001       24.15   45.18       73.16    33.74   55.74         96.83    36.67   44.82     50.46    38.53   60.23         103.21

  2002       25.56   41.29       61.25    27.69   45.91         81.44    34.21   42.75     50.64    38.26   56.05         91.45

  2003\*     27.06   34.37       44.07    26.74   42.28         70.40    31.73   38.47     48.18    43.36   57.21         85.30
  ---------- ------- ----------- -------- ------- ------------- -------- ------- --------- -------- ------- ------------- --------

\* 2003 Prices are based on information from only the first two quarters
of the year and thus are likely to be updated in future reports.

Note: These predicted prices are based on econometric models estimated
based on quarters, not years. We transformed the prices from quarterly
to annual by taking the average for the "predicted" and taking the
minimum "lower bound" and maximum "upper bound" for the 95 percent
confidence intervals. All prices are adjusted for inflation and reported
in 2002 dollars. Estimates to the penny are provided to facilitate
replication/confirmation and are not intended to be meaningfully
interpreted, given how broad the uncertainty bands are.

Source: System to Retrieve Information on Drug Evidence (STRIDE).

Prepared by the RAND Corporation, April 2004.

Table D.8. Predicted Purity of Methamphetamine, Middle Quantity Level
(Evaluated at 27.5 Grams) in Various Cities

  ---------- ------- ----------- ------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- --------- ------- ------- ------------- -------
                     **Los       ** **   ** **   **Phoenix**   ** **   ** **   **San     ** **   ** **   **San         
                     Angeles**                                                 Diego**                   Francisco**   

             Lower               Upper   Lower                 Upper   Lower             Upper   Lower                 Upper

  **Year**   Bound   Average     Bound   Bound   Average       Bound   Bound   Average   Bound   Bound   Average       Bound

  1981       0.38    0.72        1.00    0.18    0.52          0.86    0.28    0.62      0.96    0.26    0.59          0.94

  1982       0.38    0.70        1.00    0.18    0.50          0.80    0.28    0.62      0.89    0.31    0.59          0.87

  1983       0.28    0.68        1.00    0.08    0.47          0.86    0.18    0.57      0.96    0.15    0.56          0.91

  1984       0.23    0.60        0.94    0.03    0.42          0.74    0.14    0.45      0.73    0.11    0.49          0.81

  1985       0.31    0.68        1.00    0.15    0.50          0.95    0.24    0.58      1.00    0.28    0.57          0.98

  1986       0.31    0.62        0.91    0.10    0.40          0.65    0.26    0.50      0.67    0.18    0.49          0.78

  1987       0.39    0.67        0.92    0.19    0.45          0.72    0.37    0.59      0.77    0.25    0.50          0.76

  1988       0.44    0.71        0.98    0.24    0.52          0.82    0.45    0.63      0.80    0.36    0.60          0.85

  1989       0.44    0.73        1.00    0.27    0.52          0.80    0.35    0.57      0.74    0.24    0.58          0.88

  1990       0.21    0.50        0.78    0.01    0.28          0.58    0.08    0.31      0.53    0.09    0.37          0.65

  1991       0.25    0.54        0.78    0.02    0.29          0.56    0.19    0.40      0.62    0.04    0.36          0.65

  1992       0.35    0.67        0.96    0.15    0.45          0.75    0.41    0.68      0.94    0.13    0.45          0.82

  1993       0.36    0.73        1.00    0.20    0.55          0.88    0.48    0.71      0.93    0.28    0.62          0.93

  1994       0.65    0.91        1.00    0.44    0.70          0.96    0.67    0.85      1.00    0.51    0.77          1.00

  1995       0.23    0.75        1.00    0.04    0.58          0.95    0.08    0.69      1.00    0.10    0.64          1.00

  1996       0.38    0.64        0.92    0.17    0.45          0.73    0.25    0.55      0.84    0.23    0.50          0.77

  1997       0.44    0.69        0.87    0.24    0.43          0.60    0.56    0.72      0.88    0.31    0.55          0.78

  1998       0.14    0.43        0.70    0.02    0.24          0.49    0.14    0.32      0.37    0.06    0.31          0.51

  1999       0.20    0.56        0.89    0.07    0.32          0.60    0.19    0.33      0.46    0.10    0.44          0.68

  2000       0.29    0.55        0.82    0.08    0.32          0.59    0.26    0.38      0.53    0.18    0.42          0.69

  2001       0.35    0.68        0.93    0.17    0.47          0.77    0.23    0.43      0.63    0.25    0.59          0.82

  2002       0.49    0.70        0.91    0.27    0.48          0.70    0.50    0.61      0.76    0.29    0.56          0.76

  2003       0.56    0.73        0.93    0.34    0.56          0.77    0.61    0.74      0.81    0.48    0.69          0.82
  ---------- ------- ----------- ------- ------- ------------- ------- ------- --------- ------- ------- ------------- -------

\*2003 expected purities are based on information from only the first
two quarters of the year and thus are likely to be updated in future
reports.

Note: These predicted purities are based on econometric models estimated
based on quarters, not years. We transformed the prices from quarterly
to annual by taking the average for the "predicted" and taking the
minimum "lower bound" and maximum "upper bound" for the 95 percent
confidence intervals.

Source: System to Retrieve Information on Drug Evidence (STRIDE).

Prepared by the RAND Corporation, April 2004.