**S****OUTHWEST AREA**

**FIRE WEATHER**

**ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN**

**2006**

![](media/image1.wmf){width="0.6229166666666667in"
height="0.6506944444444445in"}

![](media/image4.wmf){width="0.6895833333333333in"
height="0.6131944444444445in"}

![](media/image5.wmf){width="0.59375in" height="0.44027777777777777in"}

![](media/image6.png){width="0.9270833333333334in"
height="0.9270833333333334in"}

![](media/image7.wmf){width="0.4791666666666667in"
height="0.7277777777777777in"}

![](media/image9.wmf){width="1.0152777777777777in"
height="0.38333333333333336in"}

**Arizona**

**New Mexico**

**West Texas**

**Oklahoma Panhandle**

2005 SOUTHWEST AREA FIRE WEATHER ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN

SECTION PAGE

I. INTRODUCTION [5](#_Ref98655654)

II\. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE PREVIOUS PLAN [5](#_Ref33852569)

III\. SERVICE AREAS AND ORGANIZATIONAL DIRECTORY [5](#_Ref33852577)

IV\. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SERVICES AND RESPONSIBILTIES
[10](#_Ref33852598)

> A. Basic Services [10](#_Ref33852619)
>
> 1\. Routine Narrative Forecast. [10](#_Ref34217420)
>
> 2\. Spot Forecast. [11](#_Ref34385740)
>
> 3\. Red Flag Warning/Fire Weather Watch. [14](#_Ref68965457)
>
> 4\. NFDRS Forecast. [15](#_Ref34385777)
>
> B. Special Services. [16](#_Ref33852640)
>
> C. Forecaster Training. [16](#_Ref33852680)
>
> D. Individual Forecast Office Information [16](#_Ref33430703)
>
> 1\. Northwest Arizona -- Las Vegas, NV [16](#_Ref34217533)
>
> 2\. Northern Arizona -- Flagstaff, AZ [17](#_Ref34278588)
>
> 3\. Southeast Arizona -- Tucson, AZ [19](#_Ref34278608)
>
> 4\. Southwest and South-Central Arizona -- Phoenix, AZ
> [21](#_Ref34278636)
>
> 5\. Northern and Central New Mexico -- Albuquerque, NM
> [22](#_Ref34278653)
>
> 6\. South-Central and Southwest New Mexico -- El Paso, TX
> [24](#_Ref34278670)
>
> 7\. Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas -- Midland, TX
> [25](#_Ref34278686)
>
> 8\. West-Central Texas -- Lubbock, TX [26](#_Ref34278783)
>
> 9\. Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles -- Amarillo, TX [28](#_Ref34278799)

V. WILDLAND FIRE AGENCY SERVICES AND RESPONSIBILITIES....
[29](#_Ref34217569)

> A. Predictive Services [29](#_Ref34217589)
>
> B. Program management [30](#_Ref34217603)
>
> C. Monitoring, feedback and improvement [31](#_Ref34217634)
>
> D. Technology transfer [31](#_Ref34217648)
>
> E. Agency computer systems [31](#_Ref33329802)
>
> F. WIMS ID's for NFDRS Stations [31](#_Ref69806381)
>
> G. Fire weather observations [32](#_Ref33329821)
>
> H. Reimbursement of NWS for on-site support and training assistance
> [33](#_Ref71442103)
>
> I. SWACG Predictive Services Committee Liaisons [34](#_Ref36389761)

VI\. JOINT RESPONSIBILITIES... [34](#_Ref34279843)

> A. Training [34](#_Ref33329903)
>
> B. Incident Response [35](#_Ref33329930)
>
> C. Briefings [35](#_Ref33329951)
>
> D. Fire Weather Coordination Calls [36](#_Ref68966833)
>
> E. Communication and Conflict Resolution [37](#_Ref69808051)

VII\. EFFECTIVE DATES OF AOP [38](#_Ref33286736)

VIII\. AGENCY SIGNATURES [38](#_Ref34279877)

IX\. APPENDICES [39](#_Ref34218071)

> A. Forecast Element Definitions [39](#_Ref34284542)
>
> 1\. General Elements and Haines Index [39](#_Ref34284542)
>
> 2\. Ventilation Index [40](#_Ref34284570)
>
> 3\. Lightning Activity Level. [41](#_Ref34284584)
>
> B. NWS Forecast Examples [42](#_Ref33326031)
>
> 1\. General Narrative Forecast [42](#_Ref34284719)
>
> 2\. General Tabular Forecast [46](#_Ref34386593)
>
> 3\. Spot Forecast [47](#_Ref34284739)
>
> 4\. Red Flag Warning / Fire Weather Watch [48](#_Ref34284752)
>
> 5\. NFDRS Forecast [50](#_Ref34284771)
>
> C. Predictive Services Product Examples [51](#_Ref33326045)
>
> 1\. Daily Summary [51](#_Ref34284785)
>
> 2\. 10-Day Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook [52](#_Ref34284801)
>
> 3\. Monthly Large Fire Potential Outlook [53](#_Ref34284823)
>
> 4\. Fire Season Outlook [56](#_Ref34284952)
>
> D. Narrative Fire Weather Zone Maps. [57](#_Ref34285429)
>
> E. NFDRS Zones. [59](#_Ref34286684)
>
> F. New Mexico NOAA Weather Radio Transmitters. [61](#_Ref34286695)
>
> G. Backup Spot Forecast Request Form. [64](#_Ref34387336)
>
> 1\. Example of Correctly Completed Spot Request Form
> [66](#_Ref36376882)
>
> H. Catalog of RAWS and NFDRS Observation Sites [67](#_Ref34305728)

Southwest Area Interagency Fire Weather Operating Plan - 2006

I.  []{#_Ref98655654 .anchor}INTRODUCTION

This document serves as the Interagency Fire Weather Annual Operating
Plan (AOP) for the Southwest Geographic Area. The general relationship
between NWS and the interagency fire management community is set forth
in the National Interagency Agreement for Meteorological Services. The
AOP provides specific procedural and policy information regarding the
delivery of meteorological services to the fire management community in
the Southwest Area, as allowed under the umbrella of the National
Agreement.

References include:

-   National Weather Service NWSI 10-4: Fire Weather Services

-   Interagency Agreement for Meteorological Services (National MOA or
    "National Agreement")

-   Southwest Area and National Mobilization Guides

II. []{#_Ref33852569 .anchor}SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE LAST YEAR

    A.  New Mexico NFDRS fire weather zones reconfigured (page 60)

    B.  Experimental Digital services from the National Weather Service
        (Appendix F.)

    C.  7 Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook from Predictive
        Services (Pages 29 & 52)

    D.  Red Flag event criteria changed from 3 or more continuous hours
        to 3 or more hours (Page 13)

    E.  Site-specific ventilation data available in spot forecasts under
        adverse dispersion conditions (page 11)

    F.  

    G.  

    H.  

    I.  

III. []{#_Ref33852577 .anchor}SERVICE AREA AND ORGANIZATIONAL DIRECTORY

     A.  Fire weather services are provided by SWA Predictive Services
         and the NWS forecast offices listed below. (Service areas are
         depicted in the Appendix D, starting on page
         [57](#_Ref33326089)). Contact information follows.

> Amarillo, TX Lubbock, TX El Paso, TX
>
> Midland, TX Albuquerque, NM
>
> Tucson, AZ Phoenix, AZ
>
> Flagstaff, AZ Las Vegas, NV

SOUTHWEST AREA PREDICTIVE SERVICES

333 Broadway SE, Albuquerque, NM 87102

FAX Number: (505) 842-3414 or (505) 842-3801

Web Site Address: http://www.fs.fed.us/r3/fire/

**Name Position Work Cell E-Mail**

Chuck Maxwell Meteorologist / Group Leader (505) 842-3419 362-7008
cmaxwell@fs.fed.us

Rich Naden Meteorologist / RAWS Coord. (505) 842-3415 362-7038
rnaden@fs.fed.us

Jay Ellington Fire Intelligence Coordinator (505) 842-3473 301-0850
jayellington@fs.fed.us

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE, PAB 500, P.O. Box 52025, Phoenix, AZ
85072-2025

FAX Number: (602) 267-8051

Web Site Address: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/fire/index.php?wfo=psr

Backup Office: NWS WFO Tucson, AZ

**Name Position Unlisted Direct Phone E-Mail**

Valerie Meyers IMET Trainee/Fire Weather Prog. Mgr. (602) 275-7003
Valerie.Meyers@noaa.gov

David Runyan Warning Coord Meteorologist (602) 275-7003
David.Runyan@noaa.gov

Tony Haffer Meteorologist-ln-Charge (602) 275-7003 Anton.Haffer@noaa.gov

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE, P.O. Box 16057, Flagstaff, AZ
86015-6057

FAX Number: (928) 774-3914

Web Site Address: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/fwx/fwx.php?wfo=fgz

Backup Office: WFO Phoenix

**Name Position Unlisted Direct E-Mail**

Mark Stubblefield IMET (928) 774-4414 mark.stubblefield@noaa.gov

Robert Bohlin Fire Weather Prog. Manager (928) 774-4414
robert.bohlin@noaa.gov

George Howard Warning Coord. Meteorologist (928) 774-4414
george.howard@noaa.gov

Brian Klimowski Meteorologist in Charge (928) 774-4414
brian.klimowski@noaa.gov

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE, 520 N. Park Ave., Suite 304, Tucson, AZ
85719

FAX Number: (520) 670-5167

Web Site Address: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/firewx.php

Backup Office: WFO Phoenix

**Name Position Unlisted Direct E-mail**

Steve Reedy IMET/Fire Weather Prog. Manager (520) 670-5161/5160
steve.reedy@noaa.gov

Tom Evans Warning Coord. Meteorologist (520) 670-5161/5160
tom.evans@noaa.gov

Glen Sampson Meteorologist In Charge (520) 670-5161/5160
glen.sampson@noaa.gov

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE, 7851 Dean Martin Drive, Las Vegas, NV
89139

FAX Number: (702) 263-9759

Web Site Address: http://weather.gov/lasvegas/fire.php

Backup Offices: WFO Reno - Phone 775-673-8105/ Fax 775-673-8110 and WFO
Elko - Phone 775-778-6720/Fax 775-778-9786

**Name Position Unlisted Direct E-mail**

Jim Harrison Fire Weather Program Mgr./IMET (702) 263-9750/9749
jim.harrison@noaa.gov

Andy Bailey Warning Coord. Meteorologist (702) 263-9750/9749
andy.bailey@noaa.gov

Kim Runk Meteorologist In Charge (702) 263-9750/9749 kim.runk@noaa.gov

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE, 2341 Clark Carr Loop SE, Albuquerque,
NM 87106

FAX Number: (505) 842-9162

Web Site Address: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/firewx/fw-3.htm

Backup Office: WFO El Paso/Santa Teresa

**Name Position Unlisted Direct E-mail**

Brent Wachter Fire Weather Program Mgr./IMET (505) 244-9148\*
<john.wachter@noaa.gov>

Keith Hayes Warning Coord. Meteorologist (505) 244-9148\*
keith.hayes@noaa.gov

Charlie Liles Meteorologist In Charge (505) 244-9148\*
charlie.liles@noaa.gov

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE, 2579 South Loop 289 Suite 100, Lubbock,
TX 79423-1400

FAX Number: (806) 745-1058

Web Site Address: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/fire/firewx.htm

Service Backup Office: WFO Amarillo

**Name Position Unlisted Direct E-mail**

Jose Valdez Fire Weather Program Leader (806) 745-4260/3980
jose.valdez@noaa.gov

Justin Weaver Meteorologist In Charge (806) 745-4260/3980
justin.weaver@noaa.gov

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE, 1900 English Rd., Amarillo, TX 79108

FAX Number: (806) 335-3118

Web Site Address: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/fire_weather/

Service Backup Office: WFO Lubbock

**Name Position Unlisted Direct E-mail**

Ken Schneider Fire Weather Program Leader (806) 335-9022
<ken.schneider@noaa.gov>

Steve Drillette Warning Coord. Meteorologist (806) 335-9022
steve.drillette@noaa.gov

Jose Garcia Meteorologist In Charge (806) 335-9022 jose.garcia@noaa.gov

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE, 7955 Airport Road, Santa Teresa, NM
88008

FAX Number: (505) 589-1158

Web Site Address: http://www.srh.weather.gov/elp/misc/firewx.shtml

Service Backup Office: WFO Albuquerque

**Name Position Unlisted Direct E-mail**

Tom Bird Fire Weather Prog. Leader/IMET (505) 589-3982\*
<tom.bird@noaa.gov>

Corey Pieper IMET Trainee (505) 589-3982\* <corey.pieper@noaa.gov>

John Fausett Warning Coord. Meteorologist (505) 589-4162
john.fausett@noaa.gov

Bill Alexander Meteorologist In Charge (505) 589-4161
bill.alexander@noaa.gov

WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE, 2500 Challenger Dr., Midland, TX
79706-2606

FAX Number: (432) 563-8117

Web Site Address: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf/HTML/fire_weather.html

Service Backup Office: WFO San Angelo, TX, (432) 944-0715

**Name Position Unlisted Direct E-mail**

Greg Murdoch Fire Weather Prog. Leader/IMET (432) 563-5006/6217
gregory.murdoch@noaa.gov

Pat Vesper Warning Coord. Meteorologist (432) 563-5006/6217
pat.vesper@noaa.gov

Ray Fagen Meteorologist In Charge (432) 563-5006/6217
<raymond.fagen@noaa.gov>

+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| **Southwest |                 |   |              |                     |
| Area        |                 |   |              |                     |
| PREDICTIVE  |                 |   |              |                     |
| SERVICES    |                 |   |              |                     |
| Committee   |                 |   |              |                     |
| Liaisons**  |                 |   |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Albuquerque |                 |   | John Kwait   |                     |
| WFO         |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Bureau of    |                     |
|             |                 |   | Land         |                     |
|             |                 |   | Management   |                     |
|             |                 |   | --           |                     |
|             |                 |   | Albuquerque  |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | John_K       |                     |
|             |                 |   | wait@blm.gov |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Office:      |                     |
|             |                 |   | (505)        |                     |
|             |                 |   | 761-8732     |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Cell: (505)  |                     |
|             |                 |   | 250-2239     |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Lubbock &   |                 |   | Steve Fisher |                     |
| Amarillo    |                 |   |              |                     |
| WFOs        |                 |   | Lake         |                     |
|             |                 |   | Meredith     |                     |
|             |                 |   | National     |                     |
|             |                 |   | Recreation   |                     |
|             |                 |   | Area         |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Steve_Fi     |                     |
|             |                 |   | sher@nps.gov |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Office:      |                     |
|             |                 |   | (806)        |                     |
|             |                 |   | 865-3874     |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Cell:        |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Midland &   |                 |   | James        |                     |
| Santa       |                 |   | Villard      |                     |
| Teresa WFOs |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Lincoln      |                     |
|             |                 |   | National     |                     |
|             |                 |   | Forest --    |                     |
|             |                 |   | Sacramento   |                     |
|             |                 |   | RD           |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | jvilla       |                     |
|             |                 |   | rd@fs.fed.us |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Office:      |                     |
|             |                 |   | (505)        |                     |
|             |                 |   | 682-2551     |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Cell: (505)  |                     |
|             |                 |   | 301-2032     |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Phoenix WFO |                 |   | Helen Graham |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Bureau of    |                     |
|             |                 |   | Land         |                     |
|             |                 |   | Management - |                     |
|             |                 |   | Phoenix      |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Helen_Gr     |                     |
|             |                 |   | aham@blm.gov |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Office: 623  |                     |
|             |                 |   | 580-5635     |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Cell: 602    |                     |
|             |                 |   | 903-8626     |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Tucson WFO  |                 |   | Russ Babiak  |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Buenos Aires |                     |
|             |                 |   | National     |                     |
|             |                 |   | Wildlife     |                     |
|             |                 |   | Refuge       |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Russ_Ba      |                     |
|             |                 |   | biak@fws.gov |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Office: 520  |                     |
|             |                 |   | 823-4251     |                     |
|             |                 |   | ext. 113     |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Cell: N/A    |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Las Vegas   |                 |   | Vacant       |                     |
| WFO         |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Bureau of    |                     |
|             |                 |   | Land         |                     |
|             |                 |   | Management - |                     |
|             |                 |   | Kingman      |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Office       |                     |
|             |                 |   | 928-692-4429 |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Cell: 928    |                     |
|             |                 |   | 530-2100     |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Flagstaff   |                 |   | Ed Hiatt     |                     |
| WFO         |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Grand Canyon |                     |
|             |                 |   | National     |                     |
|             |                 |   | Park         |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Office:      |                     |
|             |                 |   | (928) 638    |                     |
|             |                 |   | 0001         |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Edward_H     |                     |
|             |                 |   | iatt@nps.gov |                     |
|             |                 |   |              |                     |
|             |                 |   | Cell: (928)  |                     |
|             |                 |   | 606 1401     |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| **SOUTHWEST |                 |   |              |                     |
| AREA        |                 |   |              |                     |
| PREDICTIVE  |                 |   |              |                     |
| SERVICES    |                 |   |              |                     |
| COMMITTEE** |                 |   |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| **Name**    | **Agency/Unit** | * |              | **E-mail**          |
|             |                 | * |              |                     |
|             |                 | P |              |                     |
|             |                 | h |              |                     |
|             |                 | o |              |                     |
|             |                 | n |              |                     |
|             |                 | e |              |                     |
|             |                 | * |              |                     |
|             |                 | * |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Ed Hiatt    | NPS/Grand       | 9 |              | <Ed                 |
|             | Canyon          | 2 |              | ward_Hiatt@nps.gov> |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 6 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 0 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 0 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 0 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 1 |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| \*Chuck     | FWS/SWCC        | 5 |              | <                   |
| Maxwell     |                 | 0 |              | cmaxwell@fs.fed.us> |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 4 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 2 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 4 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 1 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 9 |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Rich Naden  | NPS/SWCC        | 5 |              | <rnaden@fs.fed.us>  |
|             |                 | 0 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 4 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 2 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 4 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 1 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| John Kwait  | BLM             | 5 |              | [John_Kwa           |
|             | NM/Albuquerque  | 0 |              | it@blm.gov](mailto: |
|             |                 | 5 |              | John_kwait@blm.gov) |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 7 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 6 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 1 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 7 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 2 |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Rita Booth  | USFS/A-S NF     | 9 |              | <rbooth@fs.fed.us>  |
|             |                 | 2 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 4 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 4 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 1 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 7 |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Ron Melcher | AZ State Lands  | 6 |              | <ronmelch           |
|             |                 | 0 |              | er@azstatefire.org> |
|             |                 | 2 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 2 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 4 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 0 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 9 |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| James       | USFS/Lincoln NF | 5 |              | <                   |
| Villard     |                 | 0 |              | jvillard@fs.fed.us> |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 6 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 2 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 2 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 1 |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Steve       | NPS Lake        | 8 |              | <St                 |
| Fisher      | Meredith        | 0 |              | eve_Fisher@nps.gov> |
|             |                 | 6 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 6 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 7 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 4 |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Helen       | BLM AZ/Phoenix  | 6 |              | <He                 |
| Graham      |                 | 2 |              | len_Graham@blm.gov> |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 0 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 6 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Russ Babiak | FWS/Buenos      | 5 |              | [Russ_Babiak@       |
|             | Aires           | 2 |              | fws.gov](mailto:Cur |
|             |                 | 0 |              | tis_Heaton@fws.gov) |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 2 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 4 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 2 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 5 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 1 |              |                     |
|             |                 | e |              |                     |
|             |                 | x |              |                     |
|             |                 | t |              |                     |
|             |                 | . |              |                     |
|             |                 | 1 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 1 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| Brad Smith  | Texas Forest    | 9 |              | <b                  |
|             | Service         | 0 |              | smith@tfs.tamu.edu> |
|             |                 | 3 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 2 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 9 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 7 |              |                     |
|             |                 | - |              |                     |
|             |                 | 4 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 8 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 4 |              |                     |
|             |                 | 0 |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+
| \* Denotes  |                 |   |              |                     |
| committee   |                 |   |              |                     |
| chair       |                 |   |              |                     |
+-------------+-----------------+---+--------------+---------------------+

B.  Participating Agencies

    1.  DOC/NOAA/National Weather Service -- Western and Southern
        Regions

    2.  USDA Forest Service -- Southwest Region

    3.  DOI Bureau of Land Management -- Arizona & New Mexico State
        Offices

    4.  DOI National Park Service -- Intermountain Region

    5.  DOI US Fish and Wildlife Service -- Southwest Region

    6.  DOI Bureau of Indian Affairs -- Units of the Southwest, Navajo,
        and Western Regions that fall within the Southwest Geographic
        Area

    7.  New Mexico State Forestry Division

    8.  Arizona State Land Department

    9.  Texas Forest Service -- Areas west of 100°W longitude

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```
IV. []{#_Ref33852598 .anchor}NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SERVICES AND
    RESPONSIBILITIES

    A.  []{#_Ref33852619 .anchor}Basic Services -- The following
        constitute the current operational fire weather forecast
        products provided by NWS. Significant changes to these forecast
        services or deployment of new operational forecast products and
        services will be coordinated through the Southwest Area Weather
        Committee and Southwest Area Predictive Services (Reference NWSI
        10-403). Any non-operational forecast products will be clearly
        labeled as "Experimental" or "Prototype".

        1.  Fire Weather Planning Forecasts

Fire weather planning forecasts are issued by all NWS offices serving
the Southwest Area. The intent is to provide general, zone based
information for daily preparedness and planning purposes.

a.  Issuance times - At least once daily by 830 a.m. local time on a
    year round basis. Afternoon forecasts will be issued by some offices
    on a year round basis, and by others on a seasonal basis, no later
    than 330 p.m. local time. Beginning and ending dates of seasonal
    afternoon forecasts will be coordinated through Predictive Services.

Forecasts will be updated when a Fire Weather Watch or a Red Flag
Warning is issued, the current forecast does not adequately represent
current or expected weather conditions or a typographical/format error
is detected.

b.  

c.  Access -- Forecasts are made available within minutes via WIMS, the
    Southwest Area Wildland Fire Operations Web Site and the web sites
    of the various NWS offices that serve the Southwest Area. Links to
    all forecasts and NWS office web pages can be found at.
    http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/predictive/weather/weather.htm

d.  Content and Format -- Forecasts will conform to either the national
    standard narrative or national standard tabular format, per NWSI
    10-401. The Amarillo and Lubbock offices will use the tabular
    format, while all others will use the narrative format. Morning
    forecasts will focus on the following 36 hours and afternoon
    forecasts on the following 48 hours, with general extended outlooks
    in both cases out to at least 5 days.

> Each forecast will begin with pertinent headlines and a non-technical
> weather discussion. Headlines are required for Red Flag Warnings and
> Fire Weather Watches, but [may]{.underline} be included for other
> situations including air stagnation, record heat, severe weather
> potential, etc.
>
> Forecasts for the first 36 or 48 hours will contain at least the
> following elements for each zone or zone grouping, listed in the order
> they will appear.

a.  Headline(s) as appropriate

b.  Sky/weather

c.  Temperature and 24 hour trends

d.  Humidity and 24 hour trends

e.  Wind - 20 foot RAWS standard (slope/valley)

f.  Ridgetop or 10,000 Ft. MSL Wind

g.  Probability of Precipitation

h.  Lightning Activity Level (LAL)

i.  Haines Index

j.  \*Mixing Level

k.  \*Transport Winds

l.  \*Ventilation (kt-ft) and Ventilation/Dispersion Category (State
    defined)

m.  Extended outlook to at least day 5 (or at end of product)

> \* Ventilation/smoke dispersion required for daytime periods only. In
> addition to Ventilation value (kt-ft), Ventilation/Dispersion category
> will be provided on the same line or on the following line.
> Ventilation information not provided for every zone in AZ or TX.
>
> Format examples and descriptions of forecast parameters can be found
> in the appendices.

e.  Consistency and Applicability Guidelines

> The following guidelines for wind speed and relative humidity in the
> daily narrative forecasts do not apply if there are legitimate
> meteorological reasons for deviating from the guidelines AND the
> reasons are clearly explained in the narrative discussion. Where a
> range of values is given in the forecast, the midpoint will determine
> the value for the purposes of consistency and applicability. (i.e. A
> 20 ft. wind speed of 10-20 mph would be counted as 15 mph, and a
> forecast of [\<]{.underline} 5 mph or [\>]{.underline} 25 mph for an
> adjacent zone would be considered inconsistent.)

+-------------------+---------------------+---------------------------+
| **Parameter**     | **Inter-zone        | **Applicability (Forecast |
|                   | Consistency**       | Range)**                  |
+-------------------+---------------------+---------------------------+
| 20 ft. wind       | ± 10 mph            | 5 mph for speeds ≤ 10 mph |
| speeds            |                     |                           |
|                   |                     | 10 mph for speeds \> 10   |
|                   |                     | mph                       |
+-------------------+---------------------+---------------------------+
| 10,000 ft MSL     | ± 10 mph            | 50% of highest speed      |
| winds             |                     | indicated                 |
+-------------------+---------------------+---------------------------+
| Min RH            | ± 5% when RH ≤ 20%  | 5% when RH ≤ 20%          |
|                   |                     |                           |
|                   | ± 10% when RH \>    | 10% when RH \> 20%        |
|                   | 20%                 |                           |
+-------------------+---------------------+---------------------------+
| Max RH            | ± 10% when RH ≤ 40% | 10% when RH ≤ 40%         |
|                   |                     |                           |
|                   | ± 20% when RH \>    | 20% when RH \> 40%        |
|                   | 40%                 |                           |
+-------------------+---------------------+---------------------------+

2.  []{#_Ref34385740 .anchor}Spot forecasts

    a.  Criteria - Spot forecasts are site-specific forecast products
        issued for wildfires, prescribed burns, search and rescue
        operations, aerial spraying, etc., and are available upon
        request at any time of day, week or season. Spot forecasts are
        available to any federal, state or municipal agency.

> Site-specific forecasts are considered one-time requests, and are not
> routinely updated. Spot forecasts will be updated when representative
> observations are available to the forecaster and/or the forecaster
> deems the current forecast does not adequately represent current or
> expected weather conditions. Priority for the update of spot forecasts
> is as follows:

-   Wildfires

-   Prescribed burns or Wildland Fire Use (WFU)

-   Everything else

> Land management personnel should contact the appropriate WFO for a
> spot update if forecast conditions appear unrepresentative of the
> actual weather conditions.
>
> The spot forecast will be corrected when a typographical/format error
> is detected. Corrections should be delivered to users in the same
> manner as the original spot forecast when possible.
>
> NWS Western Region offices willl offer automatic 7-day FARSITE weather
> support with all wildfire spot forecast issuances. For prescribed burn
> spot forecasts, FARSITE data will be produced at the request of the
> agency. Please refer to Appendix F -- Experiemental Digital Services
> from the NWS.

a.  Content and Format -- Spot forecasts will contain the required
    minimum elements, unless otherwise specified upon request:

    a.  Headline (required when Red Flag Warning / Fire Weather Watch)

    b.  Discussion

    c.  Sky/weather (including chance of rain)

    d.  Temperature

    e.  Relative humidity

    f.  20 foot winds

> Optional elements may be included upon request, including
> site-specific ventilation for smoke management purposes. The following
> conditions apply to the provision of ventilation data in spot
> forecasts in New Mexico and Arizona:

-   Ventilation for the nearest forecast reference point in the fire
    weather planning forecast rates as POOR in New Mexico or MARGINAL or
    POOR in Arizona.

-   Elevation-adjusted ventilation for a specific site, based on the
    information in the fire weather planning forecast, rates as POOR in
    New Mexico or MARGINAL or POOR in Arizona.

-   Extenuating circumstances exist where site-specific ventilation
    information is necessary to accomplish management objectives (i.e.
    particularly sensitive downwind receptor, high visibility burn or
    smoke situation, etc.)

The valid time will be determined at the time of the request. Most spots
contain three periods, usually "TODAY", "TONIGHT", and "NEXT DAY", e.g.,
"TODAY", "TONIGHT", and "THURSDAY".

a.  Procedures -- Internet based spot programs are the standards for
    requesting and retrieving spot forecasts and should be used when
    available. They are accessible via the SWCC Fire Operations Web Site
    and the web sites of the various NWS offices that serve the
    Southwest Area. Links to all forecast information and NWS office web
    pages can be found at
    http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/predictive/weather/weather.htm. In times
    when Internet access is hindered or not possible, spot forecasts may
    be requested and disseminated via phone or fax using the backup spot
    forecast request form found in the appendices. In all cases, spot
    forecasts should be available 60 minutes or less from the time the
    appropriate NWS office receives the request. NWS should be contacted
    immediately by telephone if a spot forecast is not available within
    this time frame.

At or before the time of a spot request, the requesting agency should
provide information about the location, topography, fuel type(s),
elevation(s), size, ignition time, and a contact name(s) and telephone
number(s) of the responsible land management personnel. Also, quality
representative observation(s) at, or near, the site of the planned
prescribed burn, or wildfire, should be available to the responsible WFO
along with the request for a spot forecast(s). NWS Spot and the backup
form will provide blocks to fill this data in and will indicate which
are absolutely essential to receive a spot forecast.

[Spot Forecast Feedback Requirement]{.underline}

Responsibility for providing fireline observations for the validation of
forecast accuracy rests with the fire management agencies, as outlined
under, "Fireline Observations & Spot Forecast Feedback" on page
[32](#_Ref34387940).

1.  []{#_Ref68965457 .anchor}Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag
    Warnings - The Red Flag program is a means by which the weather
    forecaster informs the land management agencies of the combination
    of dry fuels and weather conditions that support extreme fire
    behavior. Identification of Red Flag events is a primary
    responsibility of the forecaster producing the fire weather
    forecasts, though fire management personnel may request that an
    event be so identified under extenuating circumstances. Such
    requests will be passed to the appropriate zone coordination
    center(s) and then on to the appropriate NWS office(s).

A [Red Flag Warning]{.underline} is used to inform agencies of the
imminent or actual occurrence of Red Flag conditions. A Red Flag Warning
will be issued immediately when there is high confidence that Red Flag
criteria will be met within the next 24 hours, if those criteria are
already being met or if fire management personnel specifically request
that one be issued.

A [Fire Weather Watch]{.underline} is used to alert agencies to the high
potential for development of a Red Flag event in the 12-72 hour time
frame. The watch may be issued for all, or selected, portions within a
fire weather zone or region. As with Red Flag Warnings, a Watch may also
be issued upon specific request from fire management personnel.

a.  Criteria -- Standardized criteria for issuance of Fire Weather
    Watches and Red Flag Warnings in the Southwest Area are a
    combination of weather and fire danger ratings. In the absence of
    overriding input from fire management personnel, a Red Flag event is
    defined by the following conditions occurring simultaneously for
    three or more hours across any portion of a fire weather zone:

    a.  20 ft. winds sustained at 20 mph or greater or gusting to 35 mph
        or greater

    b.  Relative humidity of 15% or lower

    c.  NFDRS adjective fire danger rating of "High" or higher

> The following are assumed:

a.  Sustained winds are considered relative to the midpoint of a
    forecast range (i.e. 15-25 mph meets criteria, 15-20 mph does not)

b.  RH is considered relative to the minimum value in a given forecast
    range. (i.e. 13-23% forecast for a zone meets criteria for those
    locations in the zone expected to be 15% or less)

c.  Wind forecasts are for the 20 ft. level/10 min. time average and
    apply to RAWS properly sited and maintained, per NWCG National Fire
    Danger Rating System (NFDRS) Weather Station Standards.

    a.  Product Format and Contents - A short message (RFW) will be used
        for issuing, updating, and canceling all Fire Weather Watches
        and Red Flag Warnings. That message will include:

        a.  Headline including description of watch/warning, description
            of valid location and time period for which watch/warning is
            valid.

        b.  List of fire weather zones impacted

        c.  Short discussion detailing causes and nature of event

    b.  Procedures and Access - When Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag
        Warnings are issued; they will be headlined in spot forecasts,
        the fire weather narrative and the appropriate zone sections
        where the conditions are expected. The headline will be in the
        same descriptive format as on the RFW product itself. If
        issuance of a Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch requires an
        update of the general forecast, the NWS office will verbally
        notify the affected zone dispatch centers, and e-mail the update
        to SWCC Predictive Services, as soon as possible. Red Flag
        Warnings and Fire Weather Watches will remain in effect through
        the expiration time noted in the forecast, or until canceled or
        upgraded

Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are available within minutes
of issuance via WIMS, the SWCC Fire Operations Web Site and the web
sites of the various NWS offices that serve the Southwest Area. Links to
all forecasts and NWS office web pages can be found at
http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/predictive/weather/weather.htm

1.  []{#_Ref34385777 .anchor}NFDRS Forecasts -- The National Weather
    Service role in NFDRS is providing 24 hour forecasted weather which
    allows the NFDRS software to predict the next day\'s fire danger
    indices.

    a.  Criteria for Issuance -- NWS will issue forecasts for use by the
        NFDRS daily on a year-round basis when NFDRS observations are
        received. NFDRS observations must be complete and available in
        WIMS by 1350 LST (1450 LDT) to be received by NWS in time to
        produce a forecast. NFDRS stations that do not have valid
        observations in WIMS on time will not have next day fire danger
        indices available.

    b.  Content and Format -- Complies with NWSI 10-4 and is outlined in
        Appendix A for reference. Required meteorological elements for
        NFDRS forecasts are: State of Weather, temperature, humidity,
        wind speed, and precipitation duration. Lighting Activity Level
        (LAL) will be forecast only for the portions of Arizona served
        by NWS Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson; while LAL will be
        discontinued as a forecast element elsewhere. The actual NWS
        NFDRS forecast product is used only by WIMS and is not viewed
        directly by fire management.

    c.  Procedures -- For every NFDRS observation received from WIMS at
        the 1400 LST (1500 LDT) collective, forecast weather parameters
        for 1300 LST (1400 LDT) the next day will be produced. This will
        occur through any combination of zone trend, station trend or
        station specific forecasts. Zone and station trend forecasts
        will be favored over station specific forecasts. Where station
        specific point forecasts are issued, NWS will be responsible for
        taking reasonable actions to ensure forecasted values do not
        conflict with the historical possibility for those stations.

2.  Participation in Interagency Groups - NWS offices providing service
    within the Southwest Area are expected to provide representation at
    the annual regional AOP meeting, with proxy representation
    acceptable, and will be invited to serve as technical advisors on
    the Southwest Area Predictive Services Committee as appropriate. NWS
    offices are also expected to host at least one meeting per year with
    local fire management units to strengthen the customer relationship
    and address local concerns.

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A.  []{#_Ref33852640 .anchor}Special Services. -- NWS will provide and
    maintain a cadre of trained IMETs. Enough IMETs should be available
    from Southwest Area offices to support multiple incidents in May and
    June. At least one IMET from the offices that serve the Southwest
    Area should be available for dispatch between March 1^st^ and August
    1^st^.

B.  []{#_Ref33852680 .anchor}Forecaster Training. - The NWS recognizes
    the need for specialized training in fire weather meteorology for
    forecasters. Any NWS meteorologist producing fire weather products
    will have met the requirements set forth in [NWSI
    10-405](http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01004005curr.pdf)

C.  []{#_Ref33430703 .anchor}Individual Forecast Office Information

    1.  []{#_Ref34217533 .anchor}**Northwest Arizona - Las Vegas, NV**

> Unless otherwise mentioned, it is to be assumed that services provided
> by NWS Las Vegas for units in Arizona will follow the regional
> policies and procedures set forth in the Southwest Area Fire Weather
> AOP.
>
> [General Information]{.underline}
>
> The National Weather Service in Las Vegas, NV is responsible for
> providing Fire Weather support for northwest Arizona. The area of
> responsibility covers fire weather narrative zones 101 and 102, which
> includes all of Mohave County. The office Fire Weather Program Manager
> is also a certified Incident Meteorologist (IMET) and available for
> dispatch to fires.

##### 

-   

##### 

> [Fire Weather]{.underline} [Planning Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> Narrative forecasts will be issued by 700 am and 330 pm during the
> fire season and by 700 am during the off-season for Arizona narrative
> zones 101 and 102.
>
> [Spot Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> The Las Vegas office will prepare spot weather forecasts for
> prescribed burns and wildfires as requested for locations within the
> office's fire weather service area. Spot forecasts can be requested
> and retrieved via the Internet at:
>
> http://weather.gov/lasvegas/fire.php
>
> Click on the link to the spot forecast request.
>
> [Red Flag Warnings / Fire Weather Watches]{.underline}
>
> Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches will be issued as required
> for Arizona narrative zones 101 and 102 after coordination with
> customers and adjacent NWS offices.
>
> [NFDRS Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> The Las Vegas office will issue NFDRS forecasts for Arizona NFDRS
> zones 301 and 311.

###### Training 

> The fire weather program leader and the warning coordination
> meteorologist are available to handle fire weather training requests
> from Northwest Arizona customers.

###### Additional Information

> The Las Vegas office maintains a Fire Weather Page on its web site
> home page. This page contains links to forecasts, RAWS observations,
> annual operating plans, and other fire weather related sites. A
> clickable map is provided to obtain a narrative forecast. Simply click
> on the map within the region of interest. To go directly to the Las
> Vegas fire weather web site, use the following url:
>
> http://weather.gov/lasvegas/fire.php

1.  []{#_Ref34278588 .anchor}**Northern Arizona - Flagstaff, AZ**

> Unless otherwise mentioned, it is to be assumed that services provided
> by NWS Flagstaff will follow the regional policies and procedures set
> forth in the Southwest Area Fire Weather AOP.
>
> [General Information]{.underline}
>
> The National Weather Service office in Flagstaff provides fire weather
> support for most of northern Arizona. This area covers fire weather
> zones 104 through 118 and zones 137 through 140 (NFDRS zones 302, 303,
> 304, and 308). The office provides a full range of support services
> including regular fire weather pre-suppression forecasts, spot
> forecasts for prescribed burns and wildfires, ventilation forecasts,
> fire weather watches and Red Flag warnings. The office also provides
> training support for the S-290 course, RX-300 course, and other
> training requirements as requested by the fire management agencies.

##### 

-   
-   
-   

##### [Fire Weather]{.underline} [Planning Forecasts]{.underline}

> The Flagstaff office issues routine Fire Weather Forecasts for its
> narrative zones (104 through 118 and 137 through 140) at 7:30 a.m. and
> 3:30 p.m. daily during the fire weather season. During the non-fire
> weather season, the Fire Weather Forecast is issued once daily by 7:30
> a.m. Ventilation forecasts for Flagstaff, Whiteriver and several other
> locations in northern Arizona are provided.
>
> [Spot Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> The Flagstaff office prepares spot weather forecasts for prescribed
> burns and wildfires on request. The primary means of requesting spot
> forecasts is the web-based spot weather forecast system on the NWS
> Flagstaff homepage. The requesting agency should place a follow-up
> phone call to the NWS Flagstaff office to ensure receipt of the
> request. The forecaster will call the requesting agency when the spot
> forecast is completed and available on the web page. The web address
> for requesting and retrieving spot forecasts is:
>
> http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/spot/spotmon.php?wfo=fgz
>
> [Red Flag Warnings / Fire Weather Watches]{.underline}
>
> Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are issued as required for
> Arizona narrative zones 104 through 118 and 137 through 140. These
> products are coordinated with the appropriate adjacent weather
> offices.
>
> [NFDRS Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> NFDRS forecasts are issued for Arizona NFDRS zones 302, 303, 304, and
> 308.
>
> [IMET Services]{.underline}
>
> The Flagstaff office has an IMET available for dispatch to major
> forest fires and projects.
>
> [Training Services]{.underline}
>
> Meteorologists are available to assist with training requirements of
> the fire management agencies in northern Arizona.
>
> [Additional Information]{.underline}
>
> The NWS Flagstaff office maintains a Local Fire Weather Page on its
> website. This page contains routine Fire Weather and Spot Forecasts,
> as well as Fire Weather Watches and Red Flags Warnings. Other
> information of interest to land managers also resides there. The web
> site address is: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/fwx/fwx.php?wfo=fgz.

1.  []{#_Ref34278608 .anchor}**Southeast Arizona - Tucson, AZ**

> Unless otherwise mentioned, it is to be assumed that services provided
> by NWS Tucson will follow the regional policies and procedures set
> forth in the Southwest Area Fire Weather AOP.
>
> [General Information]{.underline}
>
> The National Weather Service in Tucson is responsible for providing
> Fire Weather support for southeast Arizona. Its area of responsibility
> covers Arizona fire weather zones 146 through 148. The office provides
> a full range of support services including the regular fire weather
> pre-suppression forecast, spot forecasts for prescribed burns and
> wildfires, as well as any Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings.
> The National Weather Service Office in Tucson will also provide
> training support for weather portions of Forest Service courses in
> southeast Arizona.

-   
-   

> [Fire Weather]{.underline} [Planning Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> NWS Tucson will issue narrative forecasts for Arizona narrative zones
> 146, 147 and 148 by 730 am and 300 pm daily. Forecast content and
> format for days 1 and 2 will conform to the general regional
> guidelines described earlier in this document.
>
> A 3 to 7 day extended forecast will be provided in the morning and
> afternoon forecasts. A forecasted wind speed and direction will be
> included in the 3 to 5 day forecast if the sustained synoptic scale
> winds are expected to be greater than 15 mph, otherwise the forecast
> wording will be stated as "No Significant Wind Over 15 mph". Minimum
> relative humidity values will also be provided in the 3 to 5 day
> forecast.
>
> [Spot Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> The Tucson office will prepare spot weather forecasts as requested for
> wildfires and prescribed burns at any time. Spot weather forecasts
> will be issued as promptly as possible, usually in 30 minutes or less.
> The primary means of requesting and disseminating spot forecasts will
> be through the Internet based spot forecast/reply program. The
> Internet Spot program for Tucson can be accessed at from Tucson's fire
> weather page at:
>
> http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/firewx.php
>
> [Red Flag Warnings / Fire Weather Watches]{.underline}
>
> Red Flag products (Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings) will be
> issued when required for Arizona fire weather zones 146 through 148.
> These products will be closely coordinated with the adjacent forecast
> offices
>
> [NFDRS Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> The Tucson office will issue the NFDRS forecasts for NFDRS zones 305
> and 306 between 2:45 pm and 3:15 pm daily. NFDRS Zone 305 corresponds
> to fire weather narrative zone 147 and NFDRS Zone 306 corresponds to
> fire weather narrative zones 146 and 148.
>
> [Incident Meteorologist]{.underline}
>
> The Tucson office will have an Incident Meteorologist available for
> dispatch. All requests for IMET services shall be forwarded to the
> Southwest Coordination Center or, if unavailable, the National Fire
> Weather Operations Coordinator at NIFC in Boise, ID.
>
> [Training Requests]{.underline}
>
> The Tucson Office will be available to assist with training
> requirements. Requests for these services should be made as far in
> advance as possible through the Tucson Fire Weather Program Manager or
> Meteorologist in Charge (MIC). NWS Tucson will handle all fire weather
> training requests from Southeast Arizona customers.
>
> [Office Visits]{.underline}
>
> The Tucson Fire Weather Program Manager will visit local customer
> offices on a regular basis for coordination and quality assurance. The
> program manager will visit customers outside the Tucson metropolitan
> area as time permits.
>
> Customers are encouraged to visit the weather service office to meet
> the forecasters who provide support and to see the latest in weather
> observation and forecast technology. Local customers are encouraged to
> attend the **office weather briefing** at 1130 am Monday through
> Friday (except holidays). Special briefings can be arranged on the
> weekends and holidays during extreme fire weather situations.
>
> [Internet]{.underline}
>
> The Tucson office maintains a Fire Weather Page on its web site home
> page. The Tucson Fire Weather Home Page is located at:
>
> http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/firewx.php

1.  []{#_Ref34278636 .anchor}**South-Central and Southwest Arizona -
    Phoenix, AZ**

> Unless otherwise mentioned, it is to be assumed that services provided
> by NWS Phoenix will follow the regional policies and procedures set
> forth in the Southwest Area Fire Weather AOP.
>
> [General Information]{.underline}
>
> The National Weather Service, Phoenix Weather Forecast Office (WFO) is
> responsible for providing 24-hour fire weather support for southwest
> and south-central Arizona, as well as a portion of southeast
> California. The office provides a full range of services including
> routine fire weather pre-suppression forecasts, spot forecasts for
> prescribed burns and wildfire, fire weather watches and red flag
> warnings. The WFO's Arizona fire weather zones are 131, 132, and 133
> and the southeast California fire weather zones are 230, 231, and 232.
>
> [Changes from Last Year]{.underline}

-   

-   

-   The Phoenix office will have an Incident Meteorologist Trainee
    available.

> [Fire Weather]{.underline} [Planning Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> During the fire weather season, the routine fire weather forecast is
> issued twice-a-day no later than 730 a.m. and 330 p.m. MST. During the
> non-fire weather season, the fire weather forecast is issued
> once-a-day, no-later-than 730 a.m. MST.
>
> [Spot Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> SPOT fire weather forecast requests are to be made either by the
> internet service at
> <http://spot.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/spot/spotmon?site=psr> or by faxing
> the SPOT request WS Form D-1 to the Phoenix WFO. After submitting the
> request, please call the WFO to confirm that the SPOT forecast request
> has been received. SPOT forecast requests may be submitted at any
> time.
>
> [Red Flag Warnings / Fire Weather Watches]{.underline}
>
> Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches will be issued as
> appropriate for Arizona fire weather narrative zones 131, 132 and 133,
> after collaboration with neighboring WFOs.
>
> [NFDRS Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> Year-round NFDRS station trend forecasts are issued daily, no later
> than 330 p.m. MST based on NFDRS 1 p.m. MST observations from Arizona
> NFDRS zones 307, 309, and 310.
>
> [IMET Services]{.underline}
>
> An IMET Trainee is available for training assignments to support
> regional fires contingent upon the availability of the IMET and the
> WFO's staffing resources.
>
> [Training]{.underline}
>
> Meteorologists are available to assist with training requirements of
> the fire management agencies in Phoenix's fire weather service area.
>
> [Additional Information]{.underline}
>
> The WFO's internet fire weather page is at
> http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/fire/index.php?wfo=psr with direct links
> to the SPOT forecast request service. The WFO's primary internet web
> site for all services is at http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr.

1.  []{#_Ref34278653 .anchor}**North and Central New Mexico -
    Albuquerque, NM**

> Unless otherwise mentioned, it is to be assumed that services provided
> by NWS Albuquerque will follow the regional policies and procedures
> set forth in the Southwest Area Fire Weather AOP.
>
> [General Information]{.underline}
>
> This section provides information specific to services provided by NWS
> Albuquerque.
>
> [Changes from Last Year]{.underline}

-   NFDRS zone boundaries changed to match the Fire Weather zone
    boundaries.

> [Fire Weather]{.underline} [Planning Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> NWS Albuquerque issues routine fire weather narrative forecasts (FWF)
> for northern and central New Mexico. This includes FWF zones 101 -
> 109, which correspond generally to the areas encompassed by Taos,
> Santa Fe and Albuquerque dispatch zones. During the off-season, the
> afternoon forecast (Smoke Management Forecast) will contain only
> ventilation information.
>
> [Spot Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> Albuquerque is responsible for spot forecasts for agencies within
> Taos, Santa Fe and Albuquerque dispatch zones. NWS Albuquerque uses
> the Internet based program called NWS spot for providing spot
> forecasts. Requests are taken and forecasts disseminated using the
> same interface at the following web address:
>
> <http://spot.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/spot/spotmon?site=abq>
>
> Please call if a spot forecast is not received within an hour of the
> time it was requested. Also, please call if a spot forecast request is
> sent via fax.
>
> [Red Flag Warnings / Fire Weather Watches]{.underline}
>
> Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches will be issued as
> appropriate for New Mexico narrative zones 101 through 109. The
> product will continue to use the segmented format.
>
> [NFDRS Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> NWS Albuquerque issues NFDRS forecasts for the following NFDRS zones
> in central and northern New Mexico: 351 to 359.
>
> [Incident Meteorologist]{.underline}
>
> The IMET at NWS Albuquerque has primary responsibility for incident
> response in central and northern portions of the state, essentially
> Taos, Santa Fe and Albuquerque zones. See the IMET ordering procedures
> earlier in the plan for additional information.
>
> [Additional Information - NWR (NOAA Weather Radio)]{.underline}
>
> General weather information is broadcast continuously over NOAA
> Weather Radio. See NWR website:
> <http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/nwr/nwr.htm> .

1.  []{#_Ref34278670 .anchor}**South-Central and Southwest New Mexico -
    El Paso, TX**

> Unless otherwise mentioned, it is to be assumed that services provided
> by NWS El Paso (located in Santa Teresa, NM) will follow the regional
> policies and procedures set forth in the Southwest Area Fire Weather
> AOP.
>
> [General Information]{.underline}
>
> NWS El Paso serves Fire Weather interest across Southwest and
> South-Central New Mexico. These areas generally correspond to land
> entities served by the Gila and Lincoln dispatch zones, including: the
> Gila NF, Smokey Bear and Sacramento RDs of the Lincoln NF, New Mexico
> portion of the Coronado NF, BLM Las Cruces District, BIA Mescalero, NM
> State Forestry Socorro and portions of Capitan districts.
>
> [Changes from Last Year]{.underline}

-   NFDRS zone boundaries changed to match the Fire Weather zone
    boundaries.

-   New IMET Trainee on staff.

> [Fire Weather]{.underline} [Planning Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> NWS El Paso issues daily fire weather narrative forecasts (FWF\'s) for
> South-Central and Southwest New Mexico for New Mexico fire weather
> zones 110 through 113. Twice a day in-season issuance times are by 830
> am and 230 pm Mountain Time. The off-season forecast is issues once
> daily by 830 am and is primarily in support of Rx burns.
>
> [Spot Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> El Paso prepares spot forecasts upon request from fire management
> agencies within its fire weather service area. El Paso utilizes the
> national web based spot program as the primary way of requesting a
> spot forecast. The web address is:
> <http://www.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/spot/spotmon?site=epz> . Contact El Paso
> NWS for training or assistance needed with this program. If the web
> based spot page is unavailable, requests can be faxed to NWS El Paso
> via (505) 589-1158. Feedback is appreciated on all forecasts. *Please
> call (505) 589-3972 if a spot forecast is not received within an hour
> of the time it was requested.*
>
> [Red Flag Warnings / Fire Weather Watches]{.underline}
>
> NWS El Paso issues Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches as
> appropriate for narrative zones 110 through 113 in South-Central and
> Southwest New Mexico.
>
> [NFDRS Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> NWS El Paso issues NFDRS forecasts for stations in the following NFDRS
> zones in southwest and south-central New Mexico: 360, 361, 362 and
> 363.
>
> [Incident Meteorologist]{.underline}
>
> The IMET at NWS El Paso has primary responsibility for incident
> response in south-central and southwest portions of the state,
> essentially the Gila and Lincoln zones.
>
> [Training Assistance]{.underline}
>
> El Paso is the primary provider of fire weather related training
> assistance in southwest and south-central New Mexico.
>
> [Office Web Site]{.underline}
>
> NWS El Paso maintains a fire weather web page at the following
> address:
>
> <http://www.srh.noaa.gov/elp/misc/firewx.shtml>

1.  []{#_Ref34278686 .anchor}**Southeast New Mexico and Southwest
    Texas - Midland, TX**

> Unless otherwise mentioned, it is to be assumed that services provided
> by NWS Midland will follow the regional policies and procedures set
> forth in the Southwest Area Fire Weather AOP.
>
> [General Information]{.underline}
>
> NWS Midland serves southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. Midland's
> fire weather service area includes the Pecos Valley Dispatch and a
> significant portion of Lincoln Zone. This includes lands managed by
> BLM Roswell, Bitter Lake NWR, NPS Carlsbad Caverns, the Guadalupe
> Mountains RD on the Lincoln NF, Big Bend NP, and Guadalupe Mountains
> NP, as well as Texas Forest Service and other state or municipal
> entities.
>
> Generally, the fire weather season for this area is mid February
> through October with the largest fires typically occurring in May and
> June. The beginning and ending of peak season is coordinated with user
> agencies and is dependent on variable fuel and weather conditions.
>
> [Changes from Last Year]{.underline}

-   

-   

-   New Mexico NFDRS zone boundaries changed to match the Fire Weather
    zone boundaries.

> [Fire Weather]{.underline} [Planning Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> WFO Midland issues daily narrative forecasts for its fire weather
> service area. During the fire season, these forecasts are issued twice
> daily by 830 am Mountain Time (930 am Central Time) and 230 pm
> Mountain Time (330 pm Central Time). The off-season FWF is mainly in
> support of Rx burns and is issued once a day by 830 am Mountain Time
> (930 am Central Time).
>
> [Spot Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> Midland will issue a spot fire weather forecast upon request from fire
> management agencies within its fire weather service area. The web
> based spot program is the primary means of initiating a spot request
> and is found at:
>
> <http://spot.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/spot/spotmon?site=maf>
>
> If this means is unavailable, request forms should be faxed to WFO
> Midland at 432-561-5057 or phoned into 432-563-6217 or 1-800-597-3220.
>
> [Red Flag Warnings / Fire Weather Watches]{.underline}
>
> NWS Midland issues Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches as
> appropriate for the fire weather narrative zones in its fire weather
> service area.
>
> [NFDRS Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> WFO Midland is responsible for issuing NFDRS forecasts for New Mexico
> NFDRS zones 364/365 and the Texas portion of NFDRS zone 364. Midland
> also issues NFDRS point forecasts for Panther Junction and Chisos
> Basin in Big Bend National Park.
>
> [Incident Meteorologist]{.underline}
>
> NWS Midland has one IMET available for incident response.

1.  []{#_Ref34278783 .anchor}**West-Central Texas - Lubbock, TX**

> Unless otherwise mentioned, it is to be assumed that services provided
> by NWS Lubbock will follow the regional policies and procedures set
> forth in the Southwest Area Fire Weather AOP.
>
> [General Information]{.underline}
>
> The Lubbock Weather Forecast Office fire weather service area covers
> the following counties in the South Plains of Northwest Texas:
>
> Bailey, Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Cochran, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens,
> Floyd, Garza, Hale, Hall, Hockley, Kent, King, Lamb, Lubbock, Lynn,
> Motley, Parmer, Stonewall, Swisher, Terry, Yoakum.
>
> The fire weather season is generally from January 15 to April 30 west
> of the Caprock Escarpment. East of the Caprock Escarpment it is
> generally from December 15 to March 15 and from July 1 to September
> 15.
>
> [Federal Land Management Area Served]{.underline}
>
> U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Muleshoe National Wildlife Refuge)
>
> [Fire Weather]{.underline} [Planning Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> These forecasts will be issued routinely once a day by 7 am and will
> conform to the national standardized tabular format for narrative
> forecasts.
>
> [Spot Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> Lubbock will issue spot forecasts upon request for locations within
> its fire weather service area. Spot forecasts can be requested and
> retrieved at the following web address:
>
> <http://spot.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/spot/spotmon?site=lub>
>
> [Red Flag Warnings / Fire Weather Watches]{.underline}
>
> NWS Lubbock issues Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches as
> appropriate for counties within its fire weather service area.
>
> [NFDRS Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> NWS Lubbock issues NFDRS forecasts for stations within its service
> area from which daily observations are received. Currently, this
> includes two NFDRS stations owned by Texas Forest Service: Caprock
> (418901) and Matador (418902).

2.  []{#_Ref34278799 .anchor}**Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles - Amarillo,
    TX**

> Unless otherwise mentioned, it is to be assumed that services provided
> by NWS Amarillo will follow the regional policies and procedures set
> forth in the Southwest Area Fire Weather AOP.
>
> [General Information]{.underline}
>
> This section provides information specific to services provided by NWS
> Amarillo. NWS Amarillo has the responsibility of providing fire
> weather information for its fire weather service area, which covers
> the following counties in the Amarillo service area:
>
> Texas panhandle: Armstrong, Carson, Collingsworth, Dallam, Deaf Smith,
> Donley, Gray, Hansford, Hartley, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb,
> Moore, Ochiltree, Oldham, Potter, Randall, Roberts, Sherman, and
> Wheeler
>
> Oklahoma panhandle: Cimarron, Texas, and Beaver
>
> [Federal Land Management Agencies Served]{.underline}

-   U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service: (Buffalo Lake National Wildlife
    Refuge)

-   U.S. Forest Service: (Black Kettle National Grassland, McClellan
    Creek National Grassland, Rita Blanca National Grassland, and
    miscellaneous grasslands administered by the Cibola National Forest)

-   National Park Service: (Lake Meredith National Recreational Area and
    Alibates Flint Quarries National Monument)

> [Fire Weather Season]{.underline}
>
> Generally, there are two fire weather seasons for the Oklahoma and
> Texas panhandles. The first season is the winter season, which
> normally runs from November through March and the second season
> normally runs from June through September.

-   

> [Fire Weather]{.underline} [Planning Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> These forecasts will be issued routinely twice a day by 7 am and 330
> pm, with updates as necessary. The content and format will conform to
> the national standardized tabular format for fire weather forecasts,
> as exhibited on page [46](#_Ref34386593).
>
> [Spot Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> Amarillo will issue a spot weather forecast upon request from all
> local, state, and federal land management agencies in support of
> wildland fires and prescribed burns. Spot forecasts are requested and
> retrieved using the following web address:
>
> http://spot.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/spot/spotmon?site=ama.
>
> If this means is unavailable, request forms should be faxed to WFO
> Amarillo at 806-335-3118 or phoned into 806-335-1421 or
> 1-800-275-8165.
>
> [Red Flag Warnings / Fire Weather Watches]{.underline}
>
> Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches will be issued as required
> and in conjunction with Region 3 guidelines for minimum relative
> humidity, wind speed/gusts and fire danger rating level will be
> followed. Additionally, WFO Amarillo will also consider issuance based
> on dry lightning potential due to life and property concerns.
>
> [Fire Danger Statement]{.underline}
>
> This is an event driven product that elaborates on the weather
> conditions which support high fire behavior.
>
> [NFDRS Forecasts]{.underline}
>
> NWS Amarillo issues an NFDRS point forecasts for CEDAR station at Lake
>
> Meredith National Park and also for the Texas Forest Service's BOOTLEG
> station in Deaf Smith county. For a forecast to be issued, an
> observation must be received by 1530 LST.
>
> [Additional Access to Fire Weather Products]{.underline}
>
> If you would like to have any or all of the fire weather products
> e-mailed to you, please send your e-mail address to
> ken.schneider@noaa.gov.

V.  []{#_Ref34217569 .anchor}WILDLAND FIRE AGENCY SERVICES AND
    RESPONSIBILITIES

> Wildland Fire Agencies' programs provide Geographic Area and national
> products for the strategic role of resource prioritization and
> utilization. Some specific responsibilities of Wildland Fire Agencies
> are listed below.

A.  []{#_Ref34217589 .anchor}Operational Support and Predictive Services
    -- Interagency fire meteorologists

> at SWCC combine forecast information from NWS and other sources into
> areawide summaries and briefings. These meteorologists work in
> conjunction with Fire Intelligence to form the Predictive Services
> Group, which produces integrated fire weather/fire danger assessments
> for the entire Southwest Area. The intent of Predictive Services is to
> provide strategic, regional and sub-regional information to assist in
> the preparedness, movement and allocation of firefighting resources.
> SWCC Predictive Services is the exclusive provider of fire danger and
> potential forecasts within the Southwest Area beyond the next day
> NFDRS forecasts provided by NWS. All products and services are
> available online and can be obtained from the SWCC website at
> <http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm>http://
>
> [Predictive Services Products]{.underline} -- (Examples in Appendix C)

1.  **Day 1 and Day 2 Area-Wide Fire Weather** **& Behavior Outlooks.**
    Fire weather outlooks combine information from FCAMMS/Rocky Mountain
    Center, NWS and Predictive Services meteorologists into a day 1 and
    day 2 graphic of significant fire weather parameters. When the Fire
    Behavior Service Center is functioning at SWCC (Preparedness Level
    3-4+), daily reports and maps of general fire behavior potential
    will be produced as well.

> **Issuance Schedule:** 1700 mountain time for the next day (primary),
> with updates as necessary by 1000 the following morning from April 1
> -- July 15, or as fire danger or activity warrants. Occasionally or
> upon request before and after peak season to support prescribed fire
> as well.

2.  **7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook.** Integrates fuel
    dryness, weather triggers and resource capability into statistically
    based large fire potential by Predictive Services Area (PSA).
    Includes general weather synopsis, fire potential discussion and
    resource discussion.

**Issuance Schedule:** Daily by 0930 mountain time from April 1 -- July
15, or as fire danger or activity warrants. Monday through Friday by
1030 during the remainder of the year.

3.  **Monthly and seasonal fire potential outlooks.** Utilizes all
    available weather, climate and fire danger information to make
    longer-term predictions of fire business potential. Outlooks will
    highlight time frames and potential for large fire activity and
    resource utilization relative to normal.

> **Issuance Schedule (Monthly):** Year round, a few days before the end
> of each month.
>
> **Issuance Schedule (Seasonal):** Two to three times per year, with a
> preliminary issuance in January and a primary outlook issued by the
> first week in April.

B.  []{#_Ref34217603 .anchor}Program Management - Management of federal
    land management and fire agencies' fire weather programs and
    responsibilities.

    1.  RAWS/NFDRS - Regional RAWS Coordinator at SWCC will manage the
        interagency RAWS program for the Southwest Area. This includes
        regular monitoring of data quality, assisting with station
        maintenance and acquisition and development of appropriate
        training.

    2.  Liaison - Predictive Services Group Leader/Fire Weather Program
        Manager will be the primary liaison between field fire managers
        and various service providers including NWS, the private sector
        and the research community.

C.  []{#_Ref34217634 .anchor}Monitoring, Feedback and Improvement of
    Fire Weather Information -- SWCC meteorologists will monitor all
    sources of fire weather information to ensure consistency, quality
    and applicability. Where issues arise, data will be archived and
    brought to the attention of the provider to enhance awareness and
    work towards improvement. Some priorities include:

    1.  NFDRS forecast consistency with station climate histories.

    2.  General forecast parameter consistency across the Southwest
        Area, especially across forecast area and land management unit
        boundaries.

    3.  Accuracy and applicability of Red Flag Warnings.

    4.  Quality of fireline observations and spot forecast feedback.

    5.  Overall adherence to policies and procedures set forth in AOP.

D.  []{#_Ref34217648 .anchor}Technology Transfer -- SWCC meteorologists
    will work to integrate advanced technology analytical and prediction
    systems into fire management planning and operations. Some efforts
    will include:

    1.  Regional numerical modeling of weather and smoke dispersion

    2.  Proper use of RAWS and NFDRS

    3.  Research and development to advance fire meteorology

[]{#_Ref33329802 .anchor}

E.  Agency Computer Systems - Where fire management computer systems
    like WIMS are locally available, access to the systems will be
    granted to NWS to provide or develop services, as needed. Costs will
    be borne by the Interagency Wildland Fire Agencies for requirements
    that are beyond the distribution of weather information through a
    central communications gateway.

F.  []{#_Ref69806381 .anchor}WIMS ID's for NFDRS Stations -- All NFDRS
    observation stations are assigned a 6-digit NWS station
    identification number for use in WIMS. The SWCC RAWS Coordinator
    must be contacted for assignment of a 6-digit number for any new
    station, or for any changes in location made to existing stations
    that already have an NWS ID number. The RAWS Coordinator will obtain
    appropriate 6-digit ID's and will notify NWS, the Arizona Department
    of Environmental Quality and other appropriate entities of any new
    or relocated NFDRS stations. A listing of current NFDRS stations and
    IDs is included in the appendices.

[]{#_Ref33329821 .anchor}

G.  Fire Weather Observations

    1.  RAWS & NFDRS Observations

Fire weather observations for stations that desire next day forecasts
will be entered into WIMS no later than 1350 LST (1450 LDT).
Observations from Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) sites will be
the latest data available from the satellite interrogation. RAWS and
NFDRS stations are expected to be sited and maintained according to NWCG
PMS 426-3 "National Fire Danger Rating System Weather Station
Standards". Proper siting of all stations is a goal in the Southwest
Area rather than an operational reality. In practice, some long standing
NFDRS stations will remain improperly sited due to extensive fire danger
histories. Any new or relocated stations will be correctly sited in a
long-term effort to address this issue. Regardless of station age or
location, annual RAWS maintenance requirements will be strictly adhered
to.

2.  Fireline Observations & Spot Forecast Feedback

[Fireline Observations]{.underline} -- Fireline observations are
required when requesting a spot forecast. Fire management agency
personnel will take standard fireline observations of temperature,
humidity, wind speed and direction and weather/sky condition consistent
with guidance provided in NFES 2140 \"Weather Station Handbook - an
Interagency Guide for Wildland Managers\".

[Spot Forecast Feedback and Validation]{.underline} - Feedback on spot
forecasts is required to validate forecasts and improve accuracy. The
following observational information is required to be made available to
the appropriate NWS office the same day any spot forecast is issued for
prescribed burn or wildland fire use (WFU) purposes. Feedback on
forecasts issued for wildfires is encouraged.

Requirement: The character of temperature, humidity and wind affecting
the burn period. Information made available to NWS within 24 hours of
forecast issuance or before issuance of next spot forecast, whichever is
first.

[]{#_Ref34387940 .anchor}At a minimum, the following must be included
(assuming daytime burn):

a.  Maximum temperature

b.  Minimum Relative Humidity

c.  Significant afternoon winds (speed and direction)

> In the event of nighttime burning, conditions affecting the burn
> period could include minimum temperature and maximum relative
> humidity.
>
> **Example of Minimum Required Feedback for Daytime Period:**
>
> **Maximum temp = 61**
>
> **Minimum RH = 18 %**
>
> **Afternoon winds = South 2-4G8, shifting to west at 1500.**
>
> [Acceptable Methods of Providing Feedback]{.underline}:

a.  Faxed copies of fireline (belt weather) observations.

b.  Phone call to appropriate NWS office

c.  Submission of required information (see example) via "Feedback"
    section of Internet spot forecast.

d.  Faxed or electronically transmitted copies of hourly weather data
    from an on-site portable weather station.

e.  Notification of deployment of a portable GOES telemetered RAWS
    onsite, so NWS can download data from the Internet.

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H.  []{#_Ref71442103 .anchor}Reimbursement for NWS Provided On-site
    Support and Training Assistance -- Federal agencies will reimburse
    NWS for all costs incurred by the agency for IMET support and
    training assistance, per the procedures set forth in the National
    Agreement. Non-federal agencies do not have blanket reimbursable
    agreements under the national agreement, but are still required to
    reimburse NWS for costs incurred.

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1.  Emergency (Incident) Support -- Per the National Agreement, NWS will
    submit an itemized bill to the appropriate fire management agencies
    at the end of the fiscal year. This bill will include; a) incident
    name, b) reimbursable costs incurred, and c) appropriate incident
    management code.

2.  []{#_Ref98652922 .anchor}Training Assistance -- Reimbursement of
    appropriate NWS costs related to provision of training assistance
    will be covered by a new interagency agreement entered into between
    NWS and USFS. This agreement covers appropriate NWS training
    expenses provided to all cooperating wildland fire management
    entities in the Southwest Area. **Below is the basic procedure for
    NWS to meet the terms of the reimbursable agreement** **pertinent to
    FY06, with updated information to be distributed at the beginning of
    FY07.**

    a.  Upon confirmation of a training request where reimbursable costs
        will be incurred, the affected WFO will contact the SWCC
        Predictive Services Group Leader (contact information on page 5)
        to convey the scope of the training.

    b.  Upon completion of training, the NWS training provider must
        complete a standard travel voucher and NWS Reimbursable Expenses
        for Fire Weather Services form, which itemizes the reimbursable
        expenses. **The USFS agreement number that must be referenced**
        on the document (in place of the management code) is
        06-IA-11031600-009.

    c.  Copies of the NWS travel voucher and Reimbursable Expenses for
        Fire Weather Services forms must be sent to the Predictive
        Services Group Leader (contact information on page 5) upon their
        completion.

    d.  At the end of the fiscal year, NWS national or regional
        headquarters will present consolidated itemized bills for all
        services to the USFS, at the address below:

> USDA Forest Service
>
> Payments -- Grants & Agreements
>
> 101B Sun Ave. NE\
> Albuquerque, NM 87109
>
> 1-877-FS ASC48 (1-877-372-7248)

A.  []{#_Ref36389761 .anchor} Liaisons to Southwest Area Predictive
    Services Committee -- The Predictive Services Committee of the
    Southwest Area Coordinating Group will identify fire management
    agency contact points for each NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO).
    These persons will act as primary liaisons between each NWS office,
    the fire management units they serve, and the Predictive Services
    Committee. Liaisons will provide single points of contact to aid in
    communication, organization of local customer meetings and the
    elevation of local issues to the Predictive Services Committee, as
    appropriate. Predictive Services Committee liaisons are listed in
    the organizational directory.

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VI. []{#_Ref34279843 .anchor}JOINT RESPONSIBILITIES

[]{#_Ref33329903 .anchor}

A.  Training -- Meteorological training assistance for NWCG and other
    courses will be provided jointly. NWS has priority for training
    conducted by local units while SWCC meteorologists have priority for
    training conducted on a sub-regional or regional basis. Requests for
    training from NWS offices should be directed to that office's
    Meteorologist-in-Charge. Requests for training from SWCC
    meteorologists should be directed to the Predictive Services Group
    Leader/Fire Weather Program Manager. In all cases, sufficient
    advance notice should be given to allow for scheduling and proper
    preparation. Costs incurred by NWS in providing training assistance
    will be reimbursed via USFS Agreement Number 05-IA-11031600-025, as
    described in section V.H.2 on page [33](#_Ref98652922).

> The following conditions must be met in order for NWS to provide
> training for [non-federal]{.underline} agencies:

-   Sufficient lead-time to schedule an instructor must be given to an
    NWS office's Meteorologist-in-Charge.

-   The NWS instructor must be the only one available to provide the
    training. (i.e. There are no land management agency or private
    meteorologist who are ready, willing and able to provide the
    training.) *The Southwest Area Predictive Services Group Leader will
    be the contact concerning the availability of non-NWS fire weather
    instructors.*

-   NWS must be able to be reimbursed for associated overtime and travel
    costs. (This is covered via a USFS reimbursable agreement, per
    section V.H.2 on page [33](#_Ref98652922)).

> []{#_Ref33329930 .anchor}

A.  Incident Response - In general, Southwest Area NWS IMETs will be
    requested to respond to all incidents within the Southwest Area.
    Costs incurred by NWS in providing IMET support will be borne by the
    requesting agency. Through coordination with the NWS National Fire
    Weather Operations Coordinator at NIFC, certified fire management
    agency IMETs may be utilized under special circumstances. All
    requests for IMETs will be processed through SWCC. The following
    information will be provided to the requested IMET:

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1.  Name of fire

2.  Location of fire

3.  Directions to location where the IMET is to report and Fire Camp
    Location

4.  Name of Incident Commander, Plans Chief and Fire Behavior Analyst if
    available.

5.  Request and Resource Order number for IMET

6.  Verification that "Special Needs" section on Resource Order includes
    authorization for use of cell phone, computer equipment and the All
    Hazards Meteorological Response System (AMRS).

> Additionally, the user agency is responsible for providing adequate
> shelter to allow the equipment and fire weather meteorologist to
> function efficiently. This would include a location free of excessive
> dust, heat and moisture, protection from wind and other elements,
> table and chair. Transportation and shelter arrangements should be
> made at the time of request. 120 volt AC power is desirable.
>
> IMETs will carry their own communications equipment and will no longer
> need a separate order for an ATMU. An ATMU may be ordered by the IMET
> from the incident. Below is a list of IMETs and ATMUs in the Southwest
> Area.

1.  Southwest Area Incident Meteorologists

> [Location]{.underline} [Name]{.underline} [Agency]{.underline} [ROSS
> Unit ID]{.underline}
>
> Albuquerque, NM Brent Wachter NWS NM-ABQW
>
> El Paso, TX Tom Bird NWS NM-EPZW
>
> El Paso, TX Corey Pieper (T) NWS NM-EPZW
>
> Midland, TX Greg Murdoch NWS TX- MAFW
>
> Phoenix, AZ Valerie Meyers (T) NWS AZ-PSRW
>
> Flagstaff, AZ Mark Stubblefield NWS AZ-FGZW
>
> Tucson, AZ Steve Reedy NWS AZ-TWCW
>
> Las Vegas, NV Jim Harrison NWS NV-VEFW

2.  Southwest Area ATMUs

> [CACHE]{.underline} [RESOURCE]{.underline}
>
> Prescott AZ-01
>
> Prescott AZ-02
>
> Silver City NM-01
>
> Silver City NM-02
>
> []{#_Ref33329951 .anchor}

A.  Briefings -- Either NWS or SWCC meteorologists will conduct
    briefings upon request, time and resources permitting. SWCC
    meteorologists will provide briefings for strategic planning
    purposes and will refer the requesting entities to the local NWS
    office or offices for specific, operationally oriented information.

B.  []{#_Ref68966833 .anchor}Fire Weather Event Coordination Calls

    1.  Fire Weather Event Coordination Calls (FWCCs) will be hosted and
        initiated by Southwest Area Predictive Services as appropriate.
        The following guidance as well as common sense and the need for
        situational awareness will serve as criteria for these calls.

        a.  Fire weather watches/red flag warnings in effect or being
            considered, or potential for a critical fire weather pattern
            over the next 3-5 days which could lead to the issuance of
            watches or warnings

        b.  Large wildfires (\>100 acres) or wildland fire use (WFU)
            fires, significant wildfires (fires threatening homes and/or
            structures), wildfires with IMETs (two or more) deployed, or
            large/significant prescribed fire activity planned or
            ongoing.

        c.  Large-scale air stagnation or other phenomena relevant to
            smoke management is imminent or expected.

        d.  Predictive Services or any WFO wants clarification,
            resolution, or discussion on forecasts or products,
            including discussions on whether or not forecast element
            variations across CWA boundaries are realistic with regard
            to regional forecast consistency criteria.

        e.  Predictive Services wants to disseminate information on
            fuels, fire danger changes, developing critical fire weather
            patterns, or any other parameters deemed appropriate. (e.g.
            rapidly changing conditions in the spring as snow packs
            melt)

    2.  Initiation of a FWCC will be accomplished through the following
        methods:

        a.  By 9:00 am MDT (1500 UTC), Predictive Services will notify
            the WFO's that they would like to participate via a link
            from the fire weather section of the Southwest Area Wildland
            Fire Operations web site.
            (http://www.fs.fed.us/r3/fire/swapredictive/swaweather/swaweather.htm).
            Calls will be optional for those offices not specifically
            listed.

        b.  Any WFO or deployed IMET wishing to coordinate with two or
            more other WFO's and/or Predictive Services may initiate a
            call by notifying Predictive Services by 8:45 am MDT (1445
            UTC). Predictive Services will then notify the WFO's via the
            method in 2(a).

[]{#_Ref33286736 .anchor}

3.  Calls will be held at 10:00 am MDT (1600 UTC). Zone dispatch centers
    and other fire management interests will be invited to listen
    in/participate at their discretion.

4.  Calls will be run by Predictive Services and will follow the outline
    below. All attempts will be made to keep the calls as succinct as
    possible.

    a.  Overview of fire activity and fire danger situation by
        Predictive Services

    b.  Regional synopsis of current and expected fire weather situation
        by Predictive Services, focusing on Critical Fire Weather
        patterns and/or other pertinent forecast concerns.

    c.  Participating WFO and IMET input regarding differences from
        regional synopsis and/or forecasts from neighboring offices.

5.  Brief notes from FWCC's will be taken by Predictive Services and
    posted to the Southwest Area Wildland Fire Operations web site
    within an hour of the end of the calls. The post will be made to a
    hidden or password protected location.

6.  Details on access to the conference calls, including the appropriate
    phone number and access codes, will be disseminated to the
    appropriate parties when that information becomes available.

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C.  []{#_Ref69808051 .anchor}Communication and Conflict Resolution

    1.  Local Wildland Fire Agency Units and NWS Weather Forecast
        Offices - Fire Management Units should work with their local
        Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to resolve issues at the local
        level. Units should raise substantive issues to the Geographic
        Area Lead Predictive Services meteorologist (Agency Fire Weather
        Program Manager). WFOs, at the discretion of the
        Meteorologist-in-Charge, should be encouraged to coordinate
        significant issues with the NWS Regional Fire Weather Program
        Manager. This is intended to keep NWS regional and Geographic
        Area Coordination Center (GACC) personnel informed and should
        not impede local communication. Minor issues such as late
        products, typographical errors, and missing weather observations
        should be handled locally.

    2.  Geographic Area and NWS Regional Fire Weather Program Managers -
        The Geographic Area Predictive Services meteorologist (Fire
        Weather Program Manager) should collaborate with the NWS
        Regional Fire Weather Program Manager to resolve issues raised
        from the local level. Issues that cannot be resolved at the
        Geographic Area level should be elevated to the National Fire
        Weather Program Manager at the National Interagency Fire Center
        (representing the federal fire agencies). The NWS Regional Fire
        Weather Program Manager should be encouraged to elevate
        unresolved issues to the next management level.

    3.  National Fire Weather Program Managers - The National Fire
        Weather Program Manager at the National Interagency Fire Center
        (representing the federal wildland fire agencies) should
        collaborate with the NWS National Fire Weather Program Manager
        to resolve issues raised from the regional level. These issues
        should be resolved within a timeframe agreed to by the
        geographic area and the national office. Issues that cannot be
        resolved at the national level should be elevated to the Federal
        Agency Fire Directors. The NWS National Fire Weather Program
        Manager should be encouraged to elevate unresolved issues to the
        next management level as well.

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```
VII. EFFECTIVE DATES ON THE AOP

> Roughly March 15, 2006 to April 15, 2007.
>
> Strictly, this AOP shall be effective on the date the last signature
> is placed on the signature section and it will remain in effect until
> the date the last signature is placed on the signature page the
> following year. Updates or amendments may be added in the interim upon
> agreement of all signatories.

VIII. []{#_Ref34279877 .anchor}AGENCY SIGNATURES (*On file*)

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Chair, Predictive Services Committee Date

Southwest Area Coordinating Group

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Chief, Meteorological Services Division Date

NWS Western Region Headquarters

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Manager, Regional Fire and Aviation Programs Date

NWS Southern Region Headquarters

IX. []{#_Ref34218071 .anchor}APPENDICES

    A.  APPENDIX -- FORECAST PARAMETER DEFINITIONS

        1.  []{#_Ref34284542 .anchor}General Parameters

[Sky/weather]{.underline} -- Cloud cover and weather. Weather could
include rain, snow, showers, thunderstorms, etc. Cloud cover is as
follows

> Clear 6% or less cloud cover
>
> Mostly Clear/Mostly Sunny 7% - 31% cloud cover
>
> Partly cloudy/Partly Sunny 32% - 69% cloud cover
>
> Mostly Cloudy 70% - 94% cloud cover
>
> Cloudy/Overcast 94% or greater cloud cover

[Temperature and 24 hour trend]{.underline} -- Dry bulb temperature
extreme, either daytime or nighttime, and trend of extreme from previous
24 hours.

[Humidity and 24 hour trend]{.underline} -- Relative humidity extreme,
either daytime or nighttime, and trend of extreme from previous 24
hours.

[Wind - 20 foot RAWS standard]{.underline} -- Surface wind speed and
direction as altered by local terrain and surface roughness and measured
per instrumentation and siting standards set by NWCG for the RAWS
program and NFDRS. In practice, surface wind forecasts produced based on
the ASOS standard will be reduced by 20% to obtain 20 ft. winds, except
in cases where wide open rangeland or desert is predominant. This same
comparison will be used in considering stations other than RAWS to
validate forecasts.

[10,000 foot MSL Wind]{.underline} -- Synoptic scale wind speed and
direction representative of winds at roughly 10,000 feet above mean sea
level, which are generally unaltered by surface frictional effects.
Equivalent to "ridgetop wind", "wind aloft", "free-air wind" and
"general wind".

[Chance of Rain]{.underline} -- Probability of occurrence of 0.01" or
greater liquid equivalent precipitation. In the case of convective
cells, this will pertain to the areal coverage of cells producing
rainfall.

[Haines Index]{.underline} -- A numerical means to indicate the
potential for existing large wildfires to experience extreme fire
behavior (i.e. crowning, spotting, and rapid rates of spread). The Index
combines both the instability and dryness of the air by examining the
lapse rate between two pressure levels in the atmosphere and the dryness
at the lower level. For most of the Southwest Area, the levels used are
700 mb (about 10,000 ft) and 500 mb (about 18,000 ft). The drier and
more unstable the atmosphere, the higher the Haines Index and the
potential for extreme fuel driven fire behavior. Haines Index values
vary from 2 to 6 and classifications are shown below:

[HAINES INDEX]{.underline} [POTENTIAL FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH]{.underline}

2 or 3 Very Low

4 Low

5 Moderate

6 High

(Haines Index does **not** include the effects of wind on fire spread.)

APPENDIX A - FORECAST PARAMETER DEFINITIONS (VENTILATION)

2.  []{#_Ref34284570 .anchor}Ventilation

Basic ventilation information is used by the states of Arizona and New
Mexico in considering the potential for smoke impacts from wildland
fires. The following are terms and definitions necessary to
understanding ventilation data and values:

**Mixing height or mixing depth**: The height to which relatively
vigorous mixing occurs due to heating. Units are in feet above ground
level (AGL), with ground level being the elevation above mean sea level
(MSL) of the upper-air site. It is important that wildland fire managers
note the difference in elevation between the burn site and the
referenced upper-air sight, and modify the provided mixing depths
accordingly.

**Transport winds**: A measure of the average rate of the horizontal
transport of air within the mixing layer. Units are in knots (1 knot =
1.15 mph). An average wind direction (the direction from which the wind
is blowing) is provided. If winds are light and variable as they likely
will be in a critical situation, then it may be best to consider the
normal drainage winds.

**Ventilation**: The product of the mixing height and the transport wind
speeds. It is a measure of the volume rate of horizontal transport of
air within the mixing layer per unit distance normal to the winds. Units
are in knot-feet, though some regulatory entities use meters^2^/second.
Ventilation values are established at a State level and used as
breakpoints for general Ventilation or Dispersion Categories that are
used for smoke management or regulatory purposes.

+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| # Vent                |                       |                     |
| ilation (Dispersion)  |                       |                     |
| Categories and Values |                       |                     |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Adjective Category    | Knot - Feet           | Meters^2^/Second    |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
|                       |                       |                     |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| ARIZONA               |                       |                     |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Excellent             | 100,000               | [\>]{.underline}    |
|                       |                       | 15,700              |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Very Good             | 70,000 -- 99,999      | 11,000 -- 15, 699   |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Good                  | 40,000 -- 69,000      | 6,300 -- 10,999     |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Fair                  | 20,000 -- 39,999      | 3,100 -- 6,299      |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Marginal              | 8,500 -- 19,999       | 1,300 -- 3,099      |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Poor                  | \< 8,500              | \< 1,300            |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
|                       |                       |                     |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| NEW MEXICO            |                       |                     |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Excellent             | [\>]{.underline}      | [\>]{.underline}    |
|                       | 150,000               | 23,500              |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Very Good             | 100,000 -- 149,999    | 15,700 -- 23,499    |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Good                  | 60,000 -- 99,999      | 9,400 -- 15,699     |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Fair                  | 40,000 -- 59,999      | 6,300 -- 9,399      |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+
| Poor                  | \< 40,000             | \< 6,300            |
+-----------------------+-----------------------+---------------------+

APPENDIX A -- FORECAST PARAMETER DEFINITIONS (LAL)

3.  []{#_Ref34284584 .anchor}Lightning Activity Level (LAL)

  ------------- ---------------------------- ------------ ------------ ---------- -------------
  **LIGHTNING                                                                     
  ACTIVITY                                                                        
  LEVEL GUIDE**                                                                   

                                                                                  

                                                          Individual              
                                                          storm cell              
                                                          cloud to                
                                                          ground                  
                                                          lightning               
                                                          discharges              

  **LAL**       **Cloud and Storm            **Areal      **Counts     **Counts   **Average
                Development**                Coverage**   ^1^cg/5      ^1^cg/15   ^1^cg/min**
                                                          min**        min**      

  1             No thunderstorms             None         \-\-\--      \-\-\--    \-\-\--

  2             Cumulus clouds are common    \<15 %       1-5          1-8        \<1
                but only a few reach the                                          
                towering stage. A single                                          
                thunderstorm must be                                              
                confirmed in the rating                                           
                area. The clouds mostly                                           
                produce virga but light rain                                      
                will occasionally reach                                           
                ground. Lightning is very                                         
                infrequent.                                                       

  3             Cumulus clouds are common.   15-24 %      6-10         9-15       1-2
                Swelling and towering                                             
                cumulus cover less than 2/10                                      
                of the sky. Thunderstorms                                         
                are few, but 2 to 3 occur                                         
                within the observation area.                                      
                Light to moderate rain will                                       
                reach the ground, and                                             
                lightning is infrequent.                                          

  4             Swelling cumulus and         25-50 %      11-15        16-25      2-3
                towering cumulus cover                                            
                2-3/10 of the sky.                                                
                Thunderstorms are scattered                                       
                but more than three must                                          
                occur within the observation                                      
                area. Moderate rain is                                            
                commonly produced, and                                            
                lightning is frequent.                                            

  5             Towering cumulus and         \>50 %       \>15         \>25       \>3
                thunderstorms are numerous.                                       
                They cover more than 3/10                                         
                and occasionally obscure the                                      
                sky. Rain is moderate to                                          
                heavy, and lightning is                                           
                frequent and intense.                                             

  6             Dry lightning outbreak. (LAL \>15 %       \-\-\--      \-\-\--    \-\-\--
                of 3 or greater with                                              
                majority of storms producing                                      
                little or no rainfall.)                                           
  ------------- ---------------------------- ------------ ------------ ---------- -------------

> **^1^** Cloud-to-ground lightning discharges

B.  []{#_Ref33326031 .anchor}APPENDIX -- NWS FORECAST EXAMPLES

    1.  []{#_Ref34284719 .anchor}Narrative Standard Format -- Morning
        Issuance

FNUS55 KABQ 311526

FWFABQ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM

800 AM MST FRI JAN 31 2003

.DISCUSSION\...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH

THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK

WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS

WESTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NMZ101-312130-

NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 101

NORTHWEST PLATEAU/FARMINGTON BLM/ABZ-

830 AM MST FRI JAN 31 2003

.TODAY\...

SKY/WEATHER\...\...\...\....MOSTLY SUNNY.

MAX TEMPERATURE\...\...\...48-53

24 HR TREND\.....DOWN 3 DEGREES.

MIN HUMIDITY\...\...\...\...22-28 PCT.

24 HR TREND\.....DOWN 2 PCT.

WIND\...20 FOOT\...\...\....TERRAIN DOMINATED 5 TO 10 MPH.

10000 FT MSL WIND\...\....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

CHANCE OF PRECIP\...\.....0 PCT.

LAL\...\...\...\...\...\...\...1.

HAINES INDEX\...\...\...\...3 VERY LOW.

MIXING HEIGHT\...\...\.....2600 FT AGL.

TRANSPORT WINDS\...\...\...NORTHWEST 5 KNOTS.

VENTILATION CAT\...\...\...POOR/13000 KT-FT.

.TONIGHT\...

SKY/WEATHER\...\...\...\....MOSTLY CLEAR.

MIN TEMPERATURE\...\...\...32-40.

24 HR TREND\.....UP 2 DEGREES.

MAX HUMIDITY\...\...\...\...55-65 PCT.

24 HR TREND\.....NO CHANGE.

WIND\...20 FOOT\...\...\....TERRAIN DOMINATED 5 TO 10 MPH.

10000 FT MSL WIND\...\....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

CHANCE OF PRECIP\...\.....0 PCT.

LAL\...\...\...\...\...\...\...1.

HAINES INDEX\...\...\...\...4 LOW.

.SATURDAY\...

SKY/WEATHER\...\...\...\....MOSTLY SUNNY.

MAX TEMPERATURE\...\...\...48-56.

24 HR TREND\.....UP 1 DEGREE.

MIN HUMIDITY\...\...\...\...19-24 PCT.

24 HR TREND\.....DOWN 3 PCT.

WIND\...20 FOOT\...\...\....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

10000 FT MSL WIND\...\....WEST 13 MPH.

CHANCE OF PRECIP\...\.....0 PCT.

LAL\...\...\...\...\...\...\...1.

HAINES INDEX\...\...\...\...4 LOW.

MIXING HEIGHT\...\...\.....2900 FT AGL.

TRANSPORT WINDS\...\...\...SOUTHWEST 5 KNOTS.

VENTILATION CAT\...\...\...POOR/14500 KT-FT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5\...

.SUNDAY\...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 50 TO 55. TERRAIN DOMINATED 5 TO 10 MPH.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

.MONDAY\...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 52 TO 57. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES 12 TO 18 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY\...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 55 TO 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES 10 TO 16 PERCENT.

\$\$

> **Narrative Standard Format -- Afternoon Issuance**

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM

330 PM MST FRI FEB 28 2003

.DISCUSSION\...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER

ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS DRY CONDITIONS

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRENDS. WINDS PICK UP EARLY NEXT

WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS.

NMZ103-291530-

NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103

SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-

330 PM MST FRI FEB 28 2003

.TONIGHT\...

SKY/WEATHER\...\...\...\.....MOSTLY CLEAR.

MIN TEMPERATURE\...\...\....

ABOVE 8000 FT\....26-32

BELOW 8000 FT\....23-30

24 HR TREND\...\...UP 3 DEGREES.

MAX HUMIDITY\...\...\...\....

ABOVE 8000 FT\....40-50 PCT

BELOW 8000 FT\....51-68 PCT

24 HR TREND\...\...DOWN 5 PCT.

WIND\...20 FOOT\...\...\.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

10000 FT MSL WIND\...\.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

CHANCE OF PRECIP\...\...\...0

LAL\...\...\...\...\...\...\....1

HAINES INDEX\...\...\...\....4 LOW.

.SATURDAY\...

SKY/WEATHER\...\...\...\.....MOSTLY SUNNY.

MAX TEMPERATURE\...\...\....

ABOVE 8000 FT\....40-48

BELOW 8000 FT\....49-56

24 HR TREND\...\...UP 3 DEGREES.

MIN HUMIDITY\...\...\...\....

ABOVE 8000 FT\....18-22 PCT

BELOW 8000 FT\....14-19 PCT

24 HR TREND\...\...DOWN 2 PCT.

WIND\...20 FOOT\...\...\.....TERRAIN DOMINATED 5 TO 10 MPH.

10000 FT MSL WIND\...\.....WEST 12 MPH.

CHANCE OF PRECIP\...\...\...0

LAL\...\...\...\...\...\...\....1

HAINES INDEX\...\...\...\....4 LOW.

MIXING HEIGHT\...\...\...\...4800 FT AGL

TRANSPORT WINDS\...\...\....SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.

VENTILATION CAT\...\...\....FAIR/48000 KT-FT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT\...

SKY/WEATHER\...\...\...\.....PARTLY CLOUDY.

MIN TEMPERATURE\...\...\....

ABOVE 8000 FT\....26-34

BELOW 8000 FT\....30-39

24 HR TREND\...\...UP 5 DEGREES.

MAX HUMIDITY\...\...\...\....

ABOVE 8000 FT\....52-58 PCT

BELOW 8000 FT\....42-50 PCT

24 HR TREND\...\...DOWN 4 PCT.

WIND\...20 FOOT\...\...\.....TERRAIN DOMINATED 5 TO 10 MPH.

10000 FT MSL WIND\...\.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.

CHANCE OF PRECIP\...\...\...0

LAL\...\...\...\...\...\...\....1

HAINES INDEX\...\...\...\....4 LOW.

.SUNDAY\...

SKY/WEATHER\...\...\...\.....PARTLY CLOUDY.

MAX TEMPERATURE\...\...\....

ABOVE 8000 FT\....42-49

BELOW 8000 FT\....50-57

24 HR TREND\...\...UP 2 DEGREES.

MIN HUMIDITY\...\...\...\....

ABOVE 8000 FT\....15-20 PCT

BELOW 8000 FT\....11-16 PCT

24 HR TREND\...\...DOWN 2 PCT.

WIND\...20 FOOT\...\...\.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

10000 FT MSL WIND\...\.....WEST 15 MPH.

CHANCE OF PRECIP\...\...\...0

LAL\...\...\...\...\...\...\....1

HAINES INDEX\...\...\...\....5 MODERATE.

MIXING HEIGHT\...\...\...\...5400 FT AGL

TRANSPORT WINDS\...\...\....SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.

VENTILATION CAT\...\...\....FAIR/54000 KT-FT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5\...

.MONDAY\...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 45 TO 65. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES 8 TO 18 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY\...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 47 TO 67. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES 9 TO 19 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY\...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 45 TO 65. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES 11 TO 21 PERCENT.

\$\$

(Additional forecast groups as necessary. Extended forecast may be
omitted from each zone grouping and included at the end of the product
and generalize to apply to the entire forecast area.)

B. APPENDIX -- NWS FORECAST EXAMPLES

2.  []{#_Ref34386593 .anchor}Tabular Standard Format -- Morning Issuance

FNUS54 KAMA 241241

FWFAMA

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

700 AM CST MON FEB 24 2003

.DISCUSSION\...A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN

IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT\...AND

WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY.

OKZ001-250000-

CIMARRON-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF\...BOISE CITY

700 AM CST MON FEB 24 2003

> TODAY TONIGHT TUE

CLOUD COVER CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY

PRECIP TYPE SNOW SNOW SNOW

CHANCE PRECIP (%) 40 30 20

TEMP (24H TREND) 15 (-11) 11 (+8) 31

RH % (24H TREND) 66 (+14) 94 (-3) 46

20FTWND-AM(MPH) NE 12 S 12

20FTWND-PM(MPH) NE 11 E 6 S 13

PRECIP AMOUNT 0.09 0.04 0.00

MIXING HGT (FT-AGL) 5890 4890

TRANSPORT WND (KTS) NE 4 E 10

LAL 1 1 1

HAINES INDEX 3 3 3

.EXTENDED FORECAST\...

.TUESDAY NIGHT\...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER

20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY\...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.

NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT\...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE

LOWER 20S. LIGHT WINDS.

.THURSDAY\...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

LIGHT WINDS.

.THURSDAY NIGHT\...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER

20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY\...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

\$\$

B. APPENDIX -- NWS FORECAST EXAMPLES

3.  []{#_Ref34284739 .anchor}Spot Forecast

FNUS75 KABQ 241548

FWSABQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR HIGHWAY 4 PROJECT BURN\...\...NPS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE

848 AM MST MON FEB 24 2003

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DISCUSSION\...COLDER AIR IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SEEP WESTWARD

TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM INCREASES ACROSS

THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

FOR PLANNED IGNITION TIME OF 930 MST 2/24/03

CLOUDS/WEATHER\.....CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. UP TO AN

INCH OF NEW SNOW. 8/10 TO 10/10 CLOUD COVER.

CHC OF PRECIP \.....70 PERCENT

TEMPERATURE\...\.....MAX 34

RELATIVE HUMIDITY..MIN 80 PERCENT

20 FOOT WIND\...\....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH

OPTIONAL ELEMENTS..(PER REQUEST)

FOR TONIGHT

CLOUDS/WEATHER\.....CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.

CHC OF PRECIP\...\...70 PERCENT

TEMPERATURE\...\.....MIN 26

RELATIVE HUMIDITY..MAX 100 PERCENT

20 FOOT WIND\...\....BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH

OPTIONAL ELEMENTS..(PER REQUEST)

FOR TUESDAY

CLOUDS/WEATHER\.....CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.

CHC OF PRECIP\...\...70 PERCENT

TEMPERATURE\...\.....MAX 34

RELATIVE HUMIDITY..MIN 80 PERCENT

20 FOOT WIND\...\....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH

OPTIONAL ELEMENTS..(PER REQUEST)

FORECASTS FOR WINDS ARE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AND MUST BE ADJUSTED

ACCORDING TO FUEL TYPE AND SHELTERING TO GET EYE LEVEL WIND SPEED.

FORECASTER\...EAP

\$\$

B. APPENDIX -- NWS FORECAST EXAMPLES

4.  []{#_Ref34284752 .anchor}Red Flag Warning / Fire Weather Watch

000

WWUS85 KABQ 101433

RFWABQ

RED FLAG WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM

733 AM MST FRI MAR 10 2006

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY CANCELLED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST

PLAINS...

\...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT 11 AM THROUGH 7 PM TODAY FOR

CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ESTANCIA

BASIN AND EASTERN PLAINS FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES\...

\...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE

EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES\...

.DISCUSSION\...VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH LEVELS EXPECTED TODAY

ACROSS MANY LOCALS. OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA\...HIGH WINDS ARE ALSO

LIKELY BUT RH LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. HIGHER RH LEVELS

ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY WITH EXCEPTION THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS

ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY

AFTERNOON IN THE EAST PROMPTING THE CONTINUATION OF THE FIRE

WEATHER WATCH. AS MENTION\...HIGHER RH LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST

PLAINS ARE ANTICIPATED THUS CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR THAT ZONE.

GUSTS COULD EXCEED 60 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH SUSTAINED RANGING

FROM 30 TO 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

NMZ104-110200-

/O.CAN.KABQ.FW.A.0018.060311T1900Z-060312T0000Z/

/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0022.060310T1800Z-060311T0200Z/

NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 104

NORTHEAST PLAINS/EASTERN KIOWA AND RITA BLANCA GRASSLANDS/ABZ-TNZ-

733 AM MST FRI MAR 10 2006

\...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED\...

\...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO

7 PM MST THIS EVENING\...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS CANCELLED THE

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN

EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LOWER WITH SUSTAINED 20 FOOT

WINDS OF 20 MPH OR HIGHER\...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE

FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

\$\$

NMZ108-110200-

/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0022.060310T1800Z-060311T0200Z/

/O.CON.KABQ.FW.A.0018.060311T1900Z-060312T0000Z/

NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 108

EAST CENTRAL PLAINS/WESTERN KIOWA GRASSLANDS BLM/ABZ-SNZ-

733 AM MST FRI MAR 10 2006

\...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO

7 PM MST THIS EVENING\...

\...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON\...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO

7 PM MST THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT

SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LOWER WITH SUSTAINED 20 FOOT

WINDS OF 20 MPH OR HIGHER\...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE

FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

\$\$

NMZ103-106-107-110200-

/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0022.060310T1800Z-060311T0200Z/

NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 103

NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/EASTERN CARSON AND SANTA FE NF/SNZ-TAZ-

NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 106

MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE-SOCORRO BLM/ABZ-GLZ-

NEW MEXICO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 107

SANDIA-MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS/EASTERN CIBOLA NF/ABZ-

733 AM MST FRI MAR 10 2006

\...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO

7 PM MST THIS EVENING\...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO

7 PM MST THIS EVENING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LOWER WITH SUSTAINED 20 FOOT

WINDS OF 20 MPH OR HIGHER\...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE

FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

\$\$

B. APPENDIX -- NWS FORECAST EXAMPLES

5.  []{#_Ref34284771 .anchor}NFDRS

a\. **ZONE/FCST\*** Shows whether this forecast is 24 hour trend (ZONE)
or specific forecast values (FCST). Trend forecasts can apply to either
NFDRS zones or individual stations. Specific point forecast values apply
only to individual NFDRS stations and are done where only a few
observations are available.

b\. **YYMMDD\*** Year, month, and day valid forecast time.

c\. **NO\*** NFDRS Zone Number (or individual NFDRS station number)

d\. **13\*** Always 1300 LST

e\. **WX\*** State of Weather valid at 1300 LST tomorrow. Valid entries
are:

0 clear

1 scattered clouds (1/8 to 4/8)

2 broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8)

3 overcast clouds (more than 7/8)

4 foggy

5 drizzle

6 raining

7 snowing or sleeting

8 showers (in sight or at the station)

9 thunderstorm

(Categories 5, 6, or 7 sets NFDRS index to 0)

f\. **TEMP\*** Temperature in deg F valid at 13 LST (or temperature
trend + or -)

g\. **RH\*** Relative humidity in percent valid at 13 LST (or RH trend +
or -)

h\. **LAL1#** Lightning Activity Level 1400 LST to 2300 LST

i\. **LAL2#** Lightning Activity Level 2300 LST to 2300 LST

j\. **WIND\*** Wind speed in mph valid at 13 LST (or wind speed trend +
or -, 20 ft level/10 minute

average)

k\. **10HR** 10 hour timelag fuel moisture in percent valid at 13 LST
(or trend + or -)

l\. **Tx** Max temperature from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow

m\. **Tn** Min temperature from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow

n\. **RHx** Max relative humidity from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow

o\. **RHn** Min relative humidity from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow

p\. **PD1\*** Precipitation duration in hours 1300 LST to 0500 LST

q\. **PD2\*** Precipitation duration in hours 0500 LST to 1300 LST

r\. **WETFLAG** Y or N. Indicates whether liquid water will be on the
fuels at 13 LST. (Use with

caution - a "Y" will set all the NFDRS indices to zero!)

**\* = Required forecast element for NFDRS \# = Required forecast
element for select NWS offices only**

The NFDRS Forecast will follow the comma delimited format as shown:

ZONE/FCST,NO,YYMMDD,13,WX,TEMP,RH,LAL1,LAL2,WIND,10HR,TX,TN,RHx,RHn,
PD1, PD2,WETFLAG

An example of the product, formatted for transmission into AWIPS, is
displayed below:

FNUS85 KBOI DDHHMM

FWMBOI

ZONE,403,011027,13,1,-3,0,1,1,0,0,,,,,0,0,N **Zone trend**

ZONE,404,011027,13,0,3,0,1,1,0,0,,,,,0,0,N **Zone trend**

ZONE,102708, 011027,13,0,4,-5,1,1,,,,,0,0,N **Station trend**

FCST,102709,011027,13,0,84,15,1,1,12,5,87,60,50,12,0,0,N **Station
specific**

[]{#_Ref33326045 .anchor}

C.  APPENDIX -- PREDICTIVE SERVICES PRODUCT EXAMPLES

    1.  []{#_Ref34284785 .anchor}Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

![](media/image11.png){width="6.511805555555555in"
height="5.290972222222222in"}

C. APPENDIX - PREDICTIVE SERVICES PRODUCTS EXAMPLES

2.  7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook

![](media/image12.png){width="5.429861111111111in"
height="5.113888888888889in"}

![](media/image13.png){width="5.170833333333333in"
height="1.9722222222222223in"}

C. APPENDIX - PREDICTIVE SERVICES PRODUCTS EXAMPLES

3.  []{#_Ref34284823 .anchor}Monthly Large Fire Potential Outlook

SOUTHWEST AREA

MONTHLY FIRE WEATHER / FIRE DANGER OUTLOOK

Issued for: March 2003

**1. POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS/CRITICAL FIRE PROBLEMS:**

+-----------------------+----------+---+---------+---+------------+---+
| > COMING MONTH        | > BELOW  | # | >       | # | > ABOVE    | # |
| >                     | > NORMAL | # |  NORMAL |   | > NORMAL   | # |
| > **March**           |          | # |         | X |            |   |
|                       |          | # |         |   |            |   |
|                       |          | # |         |   |            |   |
|                       |          | # |         |   |            |   |
|                       |          | # |         |   |            |   |
|                       |          | # |         |   |            |   |
|                       |          |   |         |   |            |   |
|                       |          | X |         |   |            |   |
+-----------------------+----------+---+---------+---+------------+---+
| > SEASON              | > BELOW  |   | >       | # | > ABOVE    | > |
|                       | > NORMAL |   |  NORMAL |   | > NORMAL   |   |
|                       |          |   |         | X |            | * |
|                       |          |   |         |   |            | * |
|                       |          |   |         |   |            | X |
|                       |          |   |         |   |            | * |
|                       |          |   |         |   |            | * |
+-----------------------+----------+---+---------+---+------------+---+

**2. WEATHER FACTORS:**

######### Current Weather/Drought Situation...

> A return to more "normal" El Nino conditions over the last several
> weeks has lead to at least 3 significant storms that have produced
> much needed rainfall throughout the Southwest Area (2-3" in AZ).
> Unfortunately most of the precipitation has been in the form of rain
> with accumulating snowfall confined to elevations above 8000 feet.
> Thus, many areas along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona are without
> significant snowpack. Across the higher elevations of north central
> New Mexico much of the precipitation has been in the form of snow with
> over 40" of accumulation at some of the ski resorts since February 1.
> As a result of the significantly wetter weather pattern, both long and
> short-term drought indices have shown improvement in the past 30 days.

######### Weather Outlook...

> Moderate El Nino conditions are expected through the end of March. The
> result will be continued chances for both temperatures and
> precipitation to be normal to above normal throughout the Southwest
> Area. The warmer temperatures will constrain the continuous snowpack
> mostly above 8,500 feet. With an active storm track across the
> southwest, southeast New Mexico and adjacent southwest Texas will have
> the greatest likelihood for short term dry and windy conditions
> between intermittent moisture.

**3. FUEL FACTORS:**

> CURRENT FINE FUELS:

+----------------+----------+---+----------+---+-----------------+---+
| > GRASS STAGE  | > GREEN  | # | > CURED  | > |                 | # |
|                |          |   |          |   |                 | # |
|                |          |   |          | * |                 | # |
|                |          |   |          | * |                 | # |
|                |          |   |          | X |                 | # |
|                |          |   |          | * |                 | # |
|                |          |   |          | * |                 | # |
|                |          |   |          |   |                 | # |
|                |          |   |          |   |                 |   |
+----------------+----------+---+----------+---+-----------------+---+
| > NEW GROWTH   | > SPARSE |   | > NORMAL | # | > ABOVE NORMAL  |   |
|                |          |   |          |   |                 |   |
|                |          |   |          | X |                 |   |
+----------------+----------+---+----------+---+-----------------+---+

> CURRENT 1000-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE: **18-25%**
>
> AVERAGE 1000-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR: **18-25%**
>
> CURRENT LIVE FUEL MOISTURE (sage, deciduous, conifer): **70-120%**

4.  **AVERAGE FIRE OCCURRENCE/ACRES BURNED:**

(Average 2000-2002, Cumulative April -- September Only)

### FIRE OCCURRENCE: N/A

### ACRES BURNED: N/A 

5.  **YEAR-TO-DATE FIRE OCCURRENCE/ACRES BURNED:**

(Average 2000-2002, Cumulative April -- September Only)

### FIRE OCCURRENCE: N/A

### ACRES BURNED: N/A

6.  **WRITTEN SUMMARY:**

####### Potential: Below Normal to Normal

> General fire danger levels have rescinded to within the below normal
> to normal range for this time of year due to recent precipitation,
> though levels across the southeast quadrant of New Mexico remain
> elevated. Any new ignitions should be held to the initial attack
> stage. The exception might be on rangelands in the southern portion of
> the Area, where fuel conditions dry out much sooner than in other
> parts of the Area.
>
> **Large Fires**
>
> For the month of March during the period 1991-2002, the SWA
> experienced a total of 59 large fires (ie. Fires \>100 acres). Of this
> number, 54 were human caused and 5 were ignited by lightning. By year,
> 1993 stands out as the year with the highest number of large fires at
> 15. The years 2000 and 1999 had 12 and 10, respectively. Overall, the
> average number of large fires for the month of March is less than 5.
>
> With precipitation continuing to flow into the Area every 5-7 days,
> fuel conditions are wet enough to keep fire spread rates to a minimum.
> Thus, expectations are the number of large fires should remain below
> five for the month.
>
> **Mobilization of Resources**
>
> **Incidents with Teams Assigned:** For the same period (1991-2002),
> only six incidents required the mobilization of a Type 1 or 2 team.
> Thus, the average number of team assignments during this 12-year
> period is less than one per year. Of the six assignments, four of them
> occurred during 2000.
>
> With fire danger expected to be in the below normal to normal range,
> significant resource mobilization (i.e. team assignment) is not
> anticipated. As always, though, local engine resources may be needed
> and should be ready and available.

**7. MAP:**

![](media/image15.jpeg){width="6.8in" height="4.8in"}

#### Issued: February 20, 2003

##### Southwest Coordination Center

**Predictive Services Group**

C. APPENDIX - PREDICTIVE SERVICES PRODUCTS EXAMPLES

1.  []{#_Ref34284952 .anchor}Seasonal Outlook

# *SOUTHWEST AREA -* 2002 Fire Season Outlook

## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The fire danger across the Southwest Area is expected to be much above
normal. This is due to low amounts of winter precipitation and a general
forecast of continued warm and dry conditions in early summer, plus a
continuance of multi-year drought in some areas. The following
highlights are based on a consensus "most likely" scenario. The complete
seasonal outlook follows this summary below.

Key factors for this season are:

-   Expect initial attack activity through April, May, and June to be
    above normal at all elevation levels.

-   Large fire potential will be above normal all season.

-   Some precipitation events are anticipated in March and April; the
    impact will only delay the season, but not reduce seasonal severity.

-   Chances for large-scale strong wind events (Red Flag) should be
    below normal in May and June.

-   It is likely that there will be a transition into an El Niño pattern
    this year, but it will not have any impact on the fire season.

-   There is no indication that the monsoon will begin early or late, or
    be especially weak or strong.

-   Annual and perennial fuels will be more susceptible to carrying
    surface fire than would be normally expected.

-   Given the expected state of both herbaceous and dead fuels, a higher
    probability of ignition will exist from any ignition source.

-   By May, it is expected that 1000 hour fuel moisture will reach near
    record low values.

-   Area average ERC values will near or exceed record levels several
    times throughout the season.

    -   Near or above critical 90^th^ percentile values from mid April
        through early July. (8-10 weeks)

    -   Near or above critical 97^th^ percentile values in June. (2-3
        weeks)

![](media/image16.wmf)

> []{#_Ref33326089 .anchor}

A.  APPENDIX -- NARRATIVE FIRE WEATHER ZONE MAPS (Arizona)

![](media/image17.png){width="6.373611111111111in"
height="5.811805555555556in"}

[]{#_Ref34285429 .anchor}D. APPENDIX - NARRATIVE FIRE WEATHER ZONE MAPS
(New Mexico, Texas & OK)

![](media/image18.png){width="6.404166666666667in"
height="5.5159722222222225in"}

B.  []{#_Ref34286684 .anchor}APPENDIX -- NFDRS ZONE MAPS (Arizona)

![](media/image19.png){width="6.623611111111111in"
height="6.352777777777778in"}

E. APPENDIX -- NFDRS ZONE MAPS (New Mexico)

![](media/image20.png){width="6.535416666666666in"
height="5.250694444444444in"}

C.  []{#_Ref34286695 .anchor}APPENDIX -- Experimental Digital Services
    from the National Weather Service

[WR Implementation Plan for NDFD-based FARSITE Weather
Support]{.underline}

1\. Prepare and post OCCWS-approved Product Development Description
(PDD). **Appendix 1**

2\. Distribute SOD-approved AWIPS formatter and forecaster GUI script to
all WR WFOs, along with instructions for installation. Prepare and post
Mod Note. **SOD review in Progress**

3\. Provide instructions to WFO webmasters for posting FARSITE data on
the internet. FARSITE product page will be same format as that currently
available from WFO SLC:

<http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/projects/ifp/data/FARSITE/FARSITE.php>.
Approximate workload - less than 2 hours. **Appendix 2**

4\. MSD provided AOP insert announcement of this service. **Appendix 3**

5\. Forecaster familiarization of FARSITE data. Approximate workload -
less than 30 minutes. Provide NWSEO/MICs guidance emphasizing negligible
workload associated with this service. **Appendix 4**

6\. Planned implementation date: May 1

**[Appendix 1: WR FARSITE PDD]{.underline}**

**Gridded Weather Input for Fire Area Simulation Model (FARSITE)**

**Product Description Document (PDD)**

Part I -- Mission Connection

a\. [Product Description]{.underline} --
[FARSITE](http://www.farsite.org/) is a deterministic model developed
and used by land management agencies. FARSITE simulates the spatial and
temporal spread and behavior of fires under conditions of heterogeneous
terrain, fuels, and weather. Required FARSITE weather input consists of
maximum and minimum relative humidity, maximum and minimum temperature,
daily precipitation, wind speed and direction and cloud cover. FARSITE
is an important tool that fire agencies use to help keep firefighters
safe. Pursuant to the NWS mission of saving lives and property, NOAA/NWS
forecasters have been manually supplying FARSITE weather input to fire
managers for a number of years.

FARSITE is an important tool for land management agencies in Western
Region. This model is used to help plan safe and efficient suppression
tactics for wildland fires, to better manage prescribed burns so that
these fires to not become out-of-control wildland fires and to allow
increased used of Wildland Fire Use (WFU) projects. Land management
agencies are increasing use of WFU projects to achieve greater public
lands fuels reduction goals at less taxpayer expense. Consequently,
Western Region WFOs are receiving increasing requests from fire managers
for FARSITE weather input. Increased automation is desired to reduce the
workload involved in fulfilling these requests.

An IFPS formatter is available to provide FARSITE weather input
automatically from the NDFD ([Gibson, Gorski,
2004](http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/projects/ifp/html/ORL.pdf)) based on
the latitude and longitude of the fire as provided by the requesting
fire official. This formatter will be available for download from the
Western Region applications server and is easily implemented on any
local AWIPS platform. FARSITE output from this formatter has been
supplied to the requesting fire agency by a variety of means. In 2006,
all Western Region WFOs will make FARSITE weather input available to the
requesting official on the WFO fire weather web page.

b\. [Product Type]{.underline} - Experimental

c\. [Purpose]{.underline} -- Establish a regional standard for providing
requested FARSITE weather data via production from NDFD and access via
WFO fire weather web pages. This will allow fire weather customers
easier access to needed FARSITE weather data and will reduce workload on
Western Region WFOs. Fire agency customers request FARSITE data via the
web or telephone call to their servicing WFO.

d\. [Audience]{.underline} -- Fire managers using FARSITE are the
customers of this data and web page option. Most customers will be
managers in the U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, National
Park Service and other federal and state land management agencies.

e\. [Presentation Format]{.underline} -- FARSITE weather data support is
presented in the standard format needed by this fire spread model. It is
simple text arranged vertically by date and horizontally by weather
element:

WTR (weather) output:

12 08 00 0700 1600 10 27 99 38 9870

12 09 00 0700 1600 10 33 73 43 9870

12 10 00 0700 1600 13 36 72 33 9870

12 11 00 0700 1600 14 37 66 33 9870

12 12 00 0700 1600 14 35 67 29 9870

12 13 00 0700 1600 13 33 64 30 9870

12 14 00 0700 1600 12 31 70 39 9870

12 15 00 0700 1600 12 31 71 39 9870

WND(wind output):

12 22 0000 11 200 44

12 22 0300 13 210 53

12 22 0600 17 220 70

12 22 0900 14 220 65

12 22 1200 11 220 56

12 22 1500 09 260 55

12 22 1800 08 310 52

12 22 2100 08 300 52

12 23 0000 08 240 52

12 23 0300 08 270 58

12 23 0600 07 310 70

12 23 0900 09 330 67

12 23 1200 10 001 60

12 23 1500 11 010 47

f\. [Feedback Method]{.underline} -- The MIC solicits feedback from the
fire agencies via telephone, e-mail and customer outreach visits.

g\. [Example]{.underline} - [National Weather Service - NWS Salt Lake
City](http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/projects/ifp/data/FARSITE/FARSITE.php)
(http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/projects/ifp/data/FARSITE/FARSITE.php)

h\. PDD Approved by Vickie Nadolski, Director, Western Region

Part II -- Technical Description

a\. [Format and Science Basis]{.underline} -- The methodology of
delivering FARSITE weather support information was developed to ease the
workload on the WFO and increase convenience for fire weather customers
to request and access the information. The IFPS formatter utilizes the
published WFO Digital Forecast Database (DFD) to generate this weather
data in the format required by FARSITE. Prior to being published, the
forecaster reviews and if necessary, adjusts the DFD to ensure
consistency and accuracy with other products and the current assessment
of expected meteorological conditions during the product valid time. It
should be noted that this PDD represents a more efficient production and
dissemination method for data that has been supplied by NOAA/NWS to fire
weather customers for a number of years. The data type is not new.

b\. [Availability]{.underline} -- FARSITE weather data will be generated
upon request by a fire agency official, usually concurrent with a spot
forecast request. When a forecaster creates a draft spot forecast from
the DFD, FARSITE data will be automatically generated and sent to the
WFO fire weather web page. If a FARSITE user does not need a full spot
forecast, they can call the WFO. The forecaster can then produce FARSITE
data by entering fire location and name in a small AWIPS GIU. Again, the
data is produced and sent to the web automatically.

c\. Additional Information -- Information regarding the availability of
FARSITE weather data on Western Region WFO fire weather web pages, as
well as the procedure for requesting this support, will be provided in
all 2006 Western Region Fire Weather Annual Operating Plans (AOP).

Point Forecast Matrix Product (PFM) for RAWS sites

1\. Limited number of PFM's will be produced across Region III during
the 2006 caldendar year.

2\. Graphical map containing links to PFM sites will be found on each
office\'s fire weather web site. SWCC will also provide a Region III
wide graphical map for which the product will be linked.

3\. Some format differences within the product may be found across
Region III.

Example format link:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/vef/firematrix.php?loc=orientalwash

Example format link:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf/Fire/getpfw.php?loc=midland

4\. Forecasts will be based on a 2.5 or 5 square km grid box for which
the RAWS site is located.

D.  []{#_Ref34387336 .anchor}APPENDIX -- BACKUP SPOT FORECAST REQUEST
    FORM

![](media/image21.png){width="6.490277777777778in"
height="8.029861111111112in"}

1.  []{#_Ref36376882 .anchor}Example of Completed Spot Request Form -
    Entries for location show three different, correct methods; legal
    description, lat/lon in decimal degrees, and lat/lon in degrees,
    minutes and seconds.

![](media/image22.png)

E.  []{#_Ref34305728 .anchor}APPENDIX -- CATALOG OF RAWS AND NFDRS
    OBSERVATION LOCATIONS

**Permanent Stations and Locations Sorted by NFDRS Zone**

![](media/image23.wmf){width="6.498611111111111in"
height="6.070138888888889in"}

APPENDIX H - CATALOG OF RAWS AND NFDRS OBSERVATION LOCATIONS

**Permanent Stations and Locations Sorted by NFDRS Zone (cont.)**

![](media/image25.wmf){width="6.498611111111111in"
height="7.8590277777777775in"}

APPENDIX H - CATALOG OF RAWS AND NFDRS OBSERVATION LOCATIONS

**Permanent Stations and Locations Sorted by NFDRS Zone (cont.)**

![](media/image27.wmf){width="6.498611111111111in"
height="5.519444444444445in"}

I. APPENDIX -- VERIFICATION

1\. National Digital Forecast Database:
http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/

2\. Rocky Mountain Center:
[http://fireweather.sc.egov.usda.gov/verification_main.htm](http://fireweather.fc.egov.usda.gov/verification_main.htm)

3\. NFDRS: To be implemented during 2006 season. Web address will be
forwarded upon service launch.

4\. SWCC Products: To be implemented. Web address will be forwarded upon
service launch.