Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 2/4/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** UP4004

UP4000

**Ukraine**

**Grain and Feed**

**February Update \-- 2004 Pre-finals and Trade**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Margaret E. Thursland, Agricultural Attaché

U.S. Embassy Kiev

**Prepared by:**

Dmitri Prikhodko, Agricultural Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Despite record high wheat imports in November--December 2003, Ukraine
will soon be looking to import an estimated 680,000 MT of wheat for
February-June 2004. U.S. wheat could be among the shipments landed in
Ukraine during this period.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Unscheduled Report

Kiev \[UP1\]

\[UP\]

Table of Contents

[**Executive Summary 3**](#executive-summary)

[Production 3](#production)

[Trade and Trade Policy 3](#trade-and-trade-policy)

Statistical tables

[Wheat PSD Table 5](#wheat-psd-table)

[Monthly Wheat and Wheat Flour Imports in MY 2003/2004
5](#monthly-wheat-and-wheat-flour-imports-in-my-20032004)

[Barley PSD Table 6](#barley-psd-table)

[Barley Exports from Ukraine 7](#barley-exports-from-ukraine-mt)

[Corn PSD Table 8](#corn-psd-table)

[Corn Exports 9](#corn-exports-mt)

[Rye PSD Table 10](#rye-psd-table)

[Rye Exports 10](#rye-exports-mt)

[Rye Imports 10](#rye-imports-mt)

[Oats PSD Table 11](#oats-psd-table)

[Oats Exports 11](#oats-exports-mt)

# Executive Summary

With rapidly diminishing wheat supplies from Kazakhstan and a Russian
export duty in place, Ukraine will be looking elsewhere to import an
estimated 680,000 MT of wheat during the remainder of this marketing
year. Wheat from the United States, Canada, European Union and Argentina
will soon be competitive as domestic grain elevator prices within
Ukraine are anticipated to increase further from the current price of
\$254 per MT (EXW, milling quality wheat).

# 

# Production

The State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (SSCU) has announced that 2003
grain and pulse production (wheat, barley, corn, rye, oats, buckwheat,
millet, rice, peas and beans) declined 48% over the previous year to
20.2 million MT harvested from 11.1 million hectares. Wheat, barley and
rye production estimates for 2003 were reduced to reflect lower reported
harvested areas. Estimates for corn and oat production were raised,
reflecting higher yields. The SSCU's 2003 preliminary final numbers by
oblast are provided in the Statistical Tables Section below.

Ukraine's 2002 grain production estimate was adjusted to correspond with
the final numbers published by the SSCU in the 2002 Agricultural
Statistics Yearbook.

# 

# Trade and Trade Policy

The most recent data available on Ukraine's wheat imports, barley, corn
and oat exports and rye trade for MY 2002/2003 and MY 2003/2004 is
provided below. Post has revised trade numbers in the PSDs to reflect
official Ukrainian trade statistics.

Wheat imports

Kazakhstan is expected to remain the main wheat supplier to Ukraine in
February-June 2004 despite its diminishing stocks and reported export
restrictions. So far, Kazakh exporters continue to successfully receive
export permits for shipments to Ukraine.

Russian wheat is unlikely to enter Ukraine in the coming months. The
Russian export duty on wheat, implemented in mid-January 2004, has
effectively stopped exports to Ukraine.

As available wheat stocks diminish in Kazakhstan, Ukrainian wheat
importers will eventually be required to turn to higher-priced wheat
from the United States, Canada, European Union and Argentina.

Rye imports

The likelihood of additional rye imports into Ukraine is low as there
are no available rye stocks in Belarus or Kazakhstan. Ukrainian
importers are not prepared to pay high prices for EU rye and have
indicated that, as they are currently available at comparable prices,
they would prefer to import EU wheat rather than rye.

Continuing Saga with VAT

As of January 1, 2004, a provision of the State Budget of Ukraine
prohibited wheat importers from utilizing promissory notes to pay the
value-added tax (VAT) on imported grain. This new twist in the VAT saga
reverses the policy established in October 2002 (GAIN Report #UP3010),
whereby the GOU had allowed importers of wheat to either utilize
promissory notes to delay payment of the VAT on imported grain for up to
180 days or importers could offset the VAT on imported grain with
outstanding VAT export refunds due but still unpaid by the GOU from
previous years. Traders report that while they are currently required to
pay the 20% VAT prior to customs clearance, this new measure is not
expected to restrict imports significantly.

This new provision in the GOU's State Budget also prohibits VAT refunds
to food and agricultural exporters. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine
has announced that the GOU will soon repeal this provision. Once VAT
refunds are officially reinstated, exports of barley and corn are
expected to resume uninterrupted for the remainder of MY 2003/2004.

# Statistical Tables

**Grain Production by Oblast in Ukraine in 2003 (1,000 hectares, 1,000
MT)**

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 13%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td rowspan="2"><p id="oblast" class="heading"> Oblast/</p>
<p id="region" class="heading">Region</p></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Total Grain and Pulses</strong></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Winter and Spring Wheat</strong></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Spring and Winter Barley</strong></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Corn</strong></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Rye</strong></td>
<td colspan="2"><strong>Oats</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Area harvested</td>
<td>Production</td>
<td>Area harvested</td>
<td>Production</td>
<td>Area harvested</td>
<td>Production</td>
<td>Area harvested</td>
<td>Production</td>
<td>Area harvested</td>
<td>Production</td>
<td>Area harvested</td>
<td>Production</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Crimea Autonomous Republic</td>
<td>458</td>
<td>665</td>
<td>238</td>
<td>358</td>
<td>179</td>
<td>220</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Vinnytsa</td>
<td>633</td>
<td>1,213</td>
<td>149</td>
<td>200</td>
<td>251</td>
<td>381</td>
<td>124</td>
<td>508</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>29</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Volyn</td>
<td>249</td>
<td>560</td>
<td>113</td>
<td>285</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>85</td>
<td>36</td>
<td>65</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Dnipropetrovsk</td>
<td>734</td>
<td>1,278</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>404</td>
<td>509</td>
<td>209</td>
<td>643</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>16</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Donetsk</td>
<td>529</td>
<td>699</td>
<td>132</td>
<td>141</td>
<td>266</td>
<td>271</td>
<td>78</td>
<td>237</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Zhytomyr</td>
<td>299</td>
<td>478</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>93</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>163</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>53</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>57</td>
<td>85</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Zakarpattya</td>
<td>81</td>
<td>272</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>149</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>15</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Zaporizhzhya</td>
<td>558</td>
<td>616</td>
<td>126</td>
<td>119</td>
<td>312</td>
<td>235</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>195</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Ivono-Frankivsk</td>
<td>106</td>
<td>263</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>87</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>14</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Kyiv</td>
<td>533</td>
<td>1,368</td>
<td>109</td>
<td>240</td>
<td>204</td>
<td>518</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>398</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>63</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Kirovograd</td>
<td>607</td>
<td>1,186</td>
<td>44</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>320</td>
<td>502</td>
<td>156</td>
<td>549</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>22</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Luhansk</td>
<td>386</td>
<td>627</td>
<td>171</td>
<td>263</td>
<td>112</td>
<td>158</td>
<td>46</td>
<td>129</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>28</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Lviv</td>
<td>246</td>
<td>577</td>
<td>123</td>
<td>290</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>99</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>36</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>65</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Mykolaiyv</td>
<td>582</td>
<td>800</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>350</td>
<td>384</td>
<td>136</td>
<td>331</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>20</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Odesa</td>
<td>774</td>
<td>1,214</td>
<td>130</td>
<td>83</td>
<td>262</td>
<td>289</td>
<td>259</td>
<td>715</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>32</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Poltava</td>
<td>697</td>
<td>1,529</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>324</td>
<td>515</td>
<td>203</td>
<td>783</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>57</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Rivne</td>
<td>215</td>
<td>410</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>129</td>
<td>61</td>
<td>124</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>50</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Sumy</td>
<td>444</td>
<td>807</td>
<td>83</td>
<td>113</td>
<td>199</td>
<td>372</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>130</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>82</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Ternopil</td>
<td>359</td>
<td>736</td>
<td>131</td>
<td>238</td>
<td>139</td>
<td>284</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>134</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>28</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Kharkiv</td>
<td>602</td>
<td>1,076</td>
<td>127</td>
<td>160</td>
<td>307</td>
<td>482</td>
<td>102</td>
<td>338</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>27</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Kherson</td>
<td>457</td>
<td>405</td>
<td>150</td>
<td>93</td>
<td>210</td>
<td>161</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>84</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Khmelnitskiy</td>
<td>438</td>
<td>830</td>
<td>144</td>
<td>250</td>
<td>166</td>
<td>320</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>121</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>44</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Cherkasy</td>
<td>524</td>
<td>1,235</td>
<td>52</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>221</td>
<td>452</td>
<td>156</td>
<td>580</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>28</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Chernivtsy</td>
<td>125</td>
<td>319</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>52</td>
<td>232</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Chernihiv</td>
<td>474</td>
<td>1,057</td>
<td>95</td>
<td>142</td>
<td>90</td>
<td>181</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>395</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>142</td>
<td>77</td>
<td>131</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Ukraine 2003 preliminary data</td>
<td><strong>11,110</strong></td>
<td><strong>20,221</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,456</strong></td>
<td><strong>3,599</strong></td>
<td><strong>4,600</strong></td>
<td><strong>6,832</strong></td>
<td><strong>1,988</strong></td>
<td><strong>6,865</strong></td>
<td><strong>395</strong></td>
<td><strong>624</strong></td>
<td><strong>544</strong></td>
<td><strong>933</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>Ukraine 2002 final data</strong></td>
<td><strong>14,242</strong></td>
<td><strong>38,804</strong></td>
<td><strong>6,477</strong></td>
<td><strong>20,556</strong></td>
<td><strong>4,153</strong></td>
<td><strong>10,364</strong></td>
<td><strong>1,189</strong></td>
<td><strong>4,180</strong></td>
<td><strong>750</strong></td>
<td><strong>1,511</strong></td>
<td><strong>500</strong></td>
<td><strong>943</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

*Data source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine.*

# Wheat PSD Table

  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  Commodity      Wheat                                       (1000      
                                                             HA)(1000   
                                                             MT)        

                 2001       Revised    2002       Estimate   2003       Forecast

                 USDA       Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                 Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                 \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  Market Year               07/2001               07/2002               07/2003
  Begin                                                                 

  Area Harvested 6882       6882       6750       6477       2800       2456

  Beginning      450        461        2961       3081       3252       2992
  Stocks                                                                

  Production     21349      21349      20550      20556      4000       3600

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 92         75         810        500        3500       3500
  Imports                                                               

  Jul-Jun        92         75         810        500        3500       3500
  Imports                                                               

  Jul-Jun Import 0          0          4          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                  

  TOTAL SUPPLY   21891      21885      24321      24137      10752      10092

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 5486       5504       6569       6545       100        50
  Exports                                                               

  Jul-Jun        5486       5504       6569       6545       100        50
  Exports                                                               

  Feed Dom.      3000       3800       4000       4500       725        1000
  Consumption                                                           

  TOTAL Dom.     13444      13300      14500      14600      10225      9650
  Consumption                                                           

  Ending Stocks  2961       3081       3252       2992       427        392

  TOTAL          21891      21885      24321      24137      10752      10092
  DISTRIBUTION                                                          
  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

# Monthly Wheat and Wheat Flour Imports in MY 2003/2004

  ------------- ------------ ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ---------------
  **Imports     **Jul-03**   **Aug-03**    **Sep-03**    **Oct-03**    **Nov-03**    **Dec-03      **Jan-04      July
  from:                                                                              est.**        est.**        2003-January
  (Country of                                                                                                    2004
  Origin)**                                                                                                      

  Kazakhstan    48,553       122,986       86,539        298,799       338,911       400,000       100,000       1,295,788

  Netherlands                                                          2,143                                     2,143

  Panama                                                 1,655                                                   1,655

  Russian       9,758        55,402        81,342        142,787       117,640       300,000       50,000        706,929
  Federation                                                                                                     

  Estonia                                                                                                        0

  Germany                    65,012        155           52,531        170                                       117,868

  Lithuania                  0             13,440        65,990        94,994                                    174,424

  Austria                                                20            593                                       613

  Canada                                                               121,474       130,000                     251,474

  Czech                      0             6,696         3,651         3,353                                     13,700
  Republic                                                                                                       

  Sweden                                                                                                         0

  Switzerland                                            598           882                                       1,480

  Syria                                                                25,961                                    25,961

  USA                        4,996                       1,065         1,140                                     7,201

  Latvia                     0             2,547         2,218         1,998                                     6,763

  Slovak        1,314        0                                                                                   1,314
  Republic                                                                                                       

  Great Britain                                                        586                                       586

  Hungary                                                5,957         15,075                                    21,032

  France                     0             223           33,889        1,198                                     35,310

  Yugoslavia                               18                                                                    18

  **Total**     **59,625**   **248,396**   **190,959**   **609,161**   **726,117**   **830,000**   **150,000**   **2,664,258**

  **Wheat Flour **9,300**    **7,500**     **8,300**     **15,700**    **20,500**    **50,000**    **15,000**    **111,300**
  Imports**                                                                                                      
  ------------- ------------ ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ---------------

Various sources and Post's own estimates

# Barley PSD Table

  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  Commodity      Barley                                      (1000      
                                                             HA)(1000   
                                                             MT)        

                 2001       Revised    2002       Estimate   2003       Forecast

                 USDA       Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                 Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                 \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  Market Year               07/2001               07/2002               07/2003
  Begin                                                                 

  Area Harvested 3921       3921       4150       4153       5000       4600

  Beginning      846        471        1324       971        1411       1072
  Stocks                                                                

  Production     10186      10186      10350      10364      8000       6830

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 94         17         20         20         20         20
  Imports                                                               

  Oct-Sep        95         18         20         20         20         20
  Imports                                                               

  Oct-Sep Import 0          0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                  

  TOTAL SUPPLY   11126      10674      11694      11355      9431       7922

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 2802       2803       2883       2883       800        1200
  Exports                                                               

  Oct-Sep        3134       3135       2302       2334       1500       1800
  Exports                                                               

  Feed Dom.      5200       5200       5500       5500       6400       4500
  Consumption                                                           

  TOTAL Dom.     7000       6900       7400       7400       8300       6400
  Consumption                                                           

  Ending Stocks  1324       971        1411       1072       331        322

  TOTAL          11126      10674      11694      11355      9431       7922
  DISTRIBUTION                                                          
  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

# Barley Exports from Ukraine, MT

  ------------------------- ------------- ---------------- ---------------
  **Exports to:**           **Jul.-Nov.   **Jul.-Nov.      **MY
                            2003**        2002**           2002/2003**

  Saudi Arabia              695,439       784,448          1,586,910

  Switzerland               52,250        22,137           23,141

  Kuwait                    39,806        50,003           93,518

  United Arab Emirates      28,933        0                12,507

  Cyprus                    14,816        98,432           159,549

  Hungary                   14,551        23,496           31,785

  United Kingdom            13,051        0                0

  Italy                     4,404         14,853           14,853

  Morocco                   3,203         136,315          136,315

  Malta                     3,100         7,265            7,266

  Romania                   2,095         0                0

  Estonia                   1,007         12,993           13,793

  United States of America  687           14,038           8,213

  Moldova                   297           2                74

  Israel                    237           73,848           145,833

  Tunisia                   0             213,076          237,776

  Japan                     0             68,311           120,744

  Algeria                   0             76,428           89,967

  Syria                     0             47,050           61,549

  Spain                     0             35,404           46,849

  Qatar                     0             0                24,000

  Slovakia                  0             12,652           12,837

  Oman                      0             0                10,000

  Greece                    0             2,880            3,156

  Belarus                   0             329              329

  Austria                   0             168              168

  Lithuania                 0             122              122

  Netherlands               0             82               102

  Germany                   0             0                20

  Libya                     0             22,295           0

  Libya                     0             0                41,885

  **Total**                 **873,876**   **1,716,629**    **2,883,260**
  ------------------------- ------------- ---------------- ---------------

Data Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine

# Corn PSD Table

  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  Commodity      Corn                                        (1000      
                                                             HA)(1000   
                                                             MT)        

                 2001       Revised    2002       Estimate   2003       Forecast

                 USDA       Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                 Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                 \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  Market Year               10/2001               10/2002               10/2003
  Begin                                                                 

  Area Harvested 1123       1123       1200       1189       2000       1990

  Beginning      944        704        940        723        920        725
  Stocks                                                                

  Production     3641       3641       4200       4180       6500       6865

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 4          18         30         30         0          10
  Imports                                                               

  Oct-Sep        4          18         30         30         0          0
  Imports                                                               

  Oct-Sep Import 0          0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                  

  TOTAL SUPPLY   4589       4363       5170       4933       7420       7600

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 349        340        850        808        1500       1500
  Exports                                                               

  Oct-Sep        349        340        850        808        1500       1500
  Exports                                                               

  Feed Dom.      2700       2700       2800       2800       4500       4600
  Consumption                                                           

  TOTAL Dom.     3300       3300       3400       3400       5200       5300
  Consumption                                                           

  Ending Stocks  940        723        920        725        720        800

  TOTAL          4589       4363       5170       4933       7420       7600
  DISTRIBUTION                                                          
  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

# Corn Exports, MT

  ------------------------------- ------------ ------------- ------------- ------------ -------------
  **Exports to:**                 **Oct-03**   **Nov-03**    **Oct-Nov     **Oct-Nov    **Oct 02-Sept
                                                             03**          02**         03**

  Russian Federation              32,610       37,854        70,463        8,002        51,813

  Belarus                         9,576        19,775        29,351        12,441       32,205

  Lithuania                       5,035        18,613        23,648        9,566        36,334

  Estonia                         3,163        8,187         11,349        12,459       23,760

  Latvia                          2,005        5,239         7,244         1,915        8,512

  Italy                           0            6,707         6,707         0            0

  Greece                          0            4,419         4,419         0            0

  Great Britain                   0            3,000         3,000         0            9,081

  Hungary                         0            2,953         2,953         0            0

  Bulgaria                        0            2,942         2,942         0            0

  Armenia                         436          2,344         2,780         1,351        10,842

  Azerbaijan                      0            2,204         2,204         911          1,037

  Israel                          0            0             0             6,235        145,913

  Egypt                           0            0             0             2,811        125,984

  Algeria                         0            0             0             17,533       76,478

  Tunisia                         0            0             0             0            70,775

  Spain                           0            0             0             0            39,963

  Luxemburg                       0            0             0             0            38,992

  Libya                           0            0             0             6,658        32,550

  Turkey                          0            0             0             0            30,353

  Lebanon                         0            0             0             0            26,510

  Netherlands                     0            0             0             0            20,135

  Cyprus                          0            0             0             0            13,116

  Syria                           0            0             0             0            6,468

  Germany                         0            0             0             0            4,968

  Switzerland                     0            0             0             0            1,407

  Georgia                         0            0             0             0            436

  Poland                          0            0             0             0            82

  **Total**                       **52,825**   **114,237**   **167,062**   **79,882**   **807,717**
  ------------------------------- ------------ ------------- ------------- ------------ -------------

#  Rye PSD Table

  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  Commodity      Rye                                         (1000      
                                                             HA)(1000   
                                                             MT)        

                 2001       Revised    2002       Estimate   2003       Forecast

                 USDA       Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                 Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                 \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  Market Year               07/2001               07/2002               07/2003
  Begin                                                                 

  Area Harvested 879        879        750        750        400        395

  Beginning      75         75         256        256        210        225
  Stocks                                                                

  Production     1822       1823       1500       1511       800        624

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 2          2          165        144        300        200
  Imports                                                               

  Oct-Sep        0          0          225        240        300        200
  Imports                                                               

  Oct-Sep Import 0          0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                  

  TOTAL SUPPLY   1899       1900       1921       1911       1310       1049

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 294        294        281        286        5          0
  Exports                                                               

  Oct-Sep        310        310        265        270        5          0
  Exports                                                               

  Feed Dom.      100        100        150        150        100        50
  Consumption                                                           

  TOTAL Dom.     1349       1350       1430       1400       1220       990
  Consumption                                                           

  Ending Stocks  256        256        210        225        85         59

  TOTAL          1899       1900       1921       1911       1310       1049
  DISTRIBUTION                                                          
  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

# 

# Rye Exports, MT

  --------------------- --------------- ---------------- ----------------
  **Exports to:**       **Jul-Oct       **MY 2001/2002** **MY 2002/2003**
                        2003**                           

  Spain                 0               235,325          194,212

  Netherlands           0               0                43,711

  Estonia               0               24,367           20,006

  Luxembourg            0               16,319           4,178

  Czech Republic        0               0                1,222

  Egypt                 0               0                1,046

  Poland                0               8,826            383

  Israel                0               5,016            8,778

  Italy                 0               3,299            0

  Belarus               0               676              0

  Hungary               0               0                7,116

  Portugal              0               200              5,185

  Azerbaijan            0               25               0

  **Total**             **0**           **294,053**      **285,837**
  --------------------- --------------- ---------------- ----------------

Data Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine

# Rye Imports, MT

+---------------------+--------------+----------------+----------------+
| Imports from:       | ######       | **MY           | **MY           |
|                     | Jul-Oct 2003 | 2002/2003**    | 2001/2002**    |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+----------------+
| Russian Federation  | 88,173       | 135,496        | 0              |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+----------------+
| Belarus             | 14,991       | 7,343          | 1,717          |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+----------------+
| Kazakhstan          | 2,051        | 1,000          | 0              |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+----------------+
| Germany             | 0            | 0              | 7              |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+----------------+
| **Total**           | **105,215**  | **143,839**    | **1,724**      |
+---------------------+--------------+----------------+----------------+

Data Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine

# Oats PSD Table

  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  Commodity      Oats                                        (1000      
                                                             HA)(1000   
                                                             MT)        

                 2001       Revised    2002       Estimate   2003       Forecast

                 USDA       Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                 Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                 \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  Market Year               07/2001               07/2002               07/2003
  Begin                                                                 

  Area Harvested 559        559        500        500        600        544

  Beginning      66         66         85         85         65         72
  Stocks                                                                

  Production     1116       1116       950        943        800        933

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 0          0          0          0          0          0
  Imports                                                               

  Oct-Sep        0          0          0          0          0          0
  Imports                                                               

  Oct-Sep Import 0          0          0          0          0          0
  U.S.                                                                  

  TOTAL SUPPLY   1182       1182       1035       1028       865        1005

  TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 47         47         30         6          30         5
  Exports                                                               

  Oct-Sep        34         34         30         6          30         5
  Exports                                                               

  Feed Dom.      900        900        800        800        600        750
  Consumption                                                           

  TOTAL Dom.     1050       1050       940        950        750        940
  Consumption                                                           

  Ending Stocks  85         85         65         72         85         60

  TOTAL          1182       1182       1035       1028       865        1005
  DISTRIBUTION                                                          
  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

# Oats Exports, MT

  --------------------- --------------- ---------------- ----------------
  **Exports to:**       **Jul-Oct       **MY 2002/2003** **MY 2001/2002**
                        2003**                           

  Canada                0               0                34,299

  Turkey                0               0                5,178

  Israel                0               4,950            4,476

  Hungary               0               813              0

  Estonia               0               541              1,982

  Egypt                 0               0                1,403

  Russian Federation    18              56               45

  **Total**             **18**          **6,360**        **47,383**
  --------------------- --------------- ---------------- ----------------

*Data Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine*