**WRITTEN TESTIMONY OF**

**MARY KICZA**

**ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR FOR**

**SATELLITE AND INFORMATION SERVICES**

**NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITE,**

**DATA, AND INFORMATION SERVICE**

**NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION**

**U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE**

**OVERSIGHT HEARING ON**

**UNITED STATES WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES, FOCUSING ON THEIR
READINESS FOR THE 21^ST^ CENTURY**

**BEFORE THE**

**COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION**

**UNITED STATES SENATE**

**JULY 11, 2007**

**[Introduction]{.underline}**

Mr. Chairman and members of the committee, I am Mary Kicza, Assistant
Administrator for Satellite and Information Services in the National
Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). NESDIS
is a line office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
within the Department of Commerce (DOC).

NOAA\'s work touches the daily lives of every person in the United
States and in much of the world. From hurricane forecasts to fisheries
management, from remote sensing to climate research and ocean
exploration, NOAA\'s products and services contribute to the foundation
of a healthy economy. I appreciate the opportunity to discuss with you
today NOAA's environmental satellite programs and to highlight their
importance to our hurricane and other severe weather forecasting and
warning capabilities.

Satellites provide an unparalleled capability to take images and precise
measurements of many aspects of vast areas of the land, sea, and air in
very rapid succession. Data obtained from these observing systems are
essential to our ability to understand and predict changes in the
Earth's environment. These data are key enablers for NOAA in meeting its
public safety, economic, and environmental mission requirements.

Although their payoff is great, satellites are also an inherently risky
endeavor. Not only is there the "rocket science" involved, but the
instruments carried on these satellites must be sensitive enough to
measure very small differences in the characteristics of the oceans,
land, and atmosphere while being able to withstand the extreme
vibrations of a launch and the extreme heating and cooling of the space
environment.

NOAA currently operates and manages two major satellite programs: the
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and the
Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES).

**[What Are GOES Satellites?]{.underline}**

NOAA has operated geostationary satellites since the 1970s. These
satellites, orbiting 22,240 miles above the equator, mirroring the
Earth's rotation, provide constant images and data on atmospheric,
oceanic, land, and climatic conditions over the Western Hemisphere with
major focus on the continental United States, Hawaii, the western
Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean. These satellites provide
the hurricane and other severe storm moving displays, called "loops,"
that you see on television and are best known for the images used in
television weather forecasts. More importantly, GOES satellites often
provide the first images and information indicating severe weather is
imminent to the forecasters so they can provide the early warnings ---
think of GOES satellites as sentinels in the sky.

NOAA operates two geostationary satellites, one over the East Coast and
the other over the West Coast. Given the absolutely critical role these
satellites play in our nation's ability to forecast weather, especially
severe weather, we maintain a spare satellite on-orbit that can quickly
be activated should a primary satellite fail. We also have a fourth GOES
satellite, near the end of its mission life, which is being used by
South American nations for weather forecasting and could be used in an
emergency. The final two GOES satellites in the current GOES-N series
have been built and are scheduled for launch in 2008 and 2009; each of
these satellites has an expected lifetime of 5 years.

The GOES satellites have unique environmental sensors ---an imager and a
sounder --- that provide a wide range of capabilities related to
weather, water, and climate observations that include tsunami, wildland
fire, volcanic ash detection, and storms. The satellites also have a
data relay function that is used for stream and reservoir monitoring. A
search and rescue instrument supports mariners and aviators in trouble.
Two of the GOES satellites have an additional sensor onboard that
gathers information on space weather.

The GOES satellites provide forecasters frequent images of clouds
circulation, and monitor the Earth's surface temperature and water vapor
fields. In addition, these satellites measure the vertical thermal and
moisture structures of the atmosphere. When combined, this information
allows forecasters to better understand and monitor the evolution of
atmospheric phenomena and ensure real-time coverage of dynamic events
that directly affect public safety, protection of property, and
ultimately, economic health and development.

In addition, GOES satellites also transmit emergency communications for
NOAA's National Weather Service to the Emergency Managers Weather
Information Network. This network provides emergency management
communities, including the Department of Homeland Security, and the
Federal Emergency Management Agency, with warnings, watches, and
forecasts issued by NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS).

**[The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
(GOES-R)]{.underline}**

We are in the early stages of the acquisition process for the next
generation of GOES satellites, called GOES-R. Given the long lead time
needed for satellite development and launch, acquisition work has
already begun to ensure continuity of satellite coverage into the
future.

All GOES-R instruments are either on contract or in source selection.
The main sensor on GOES-R, the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), will
fulfill NOAA's critical mission requirements. This sensor will offer
significant advancements over the current GOES imagers by providing
images five times faster and will have the ability to zoom in to view
hurricanes and specific severe weather events, while at the same time
continuing to monitor the rest of the United States. We currently do not
have this flexibility in our zoom capability and must constantly make
decisions about what to focus on, which affects our ability to forecast
weather in multiple regions. The space weather instruments will provide
enhanced data on solar flares and the space radiation environment that
NOAA\'s Space Environment Center uses to issue space weather warnings
critical to all satellites, power grids, GPS users, commercial aviation,
and astronauts. The Geostationary Lightning Mapper is a brand new
instrument, never before flown in geostationary orbit, that will help us
better detect cloud-to-cloud lightning, and early precursor to a
potentially dangerous weather event, and improve our capabilities to
forecast and track severe weather over broad areas. Present operational
lightning sensors are ground-based and provide only localized coverage
of cloud-to-ground strikes.

NOAA is applying lessons learned from our other major next generation
satellite program, the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellite System

(NPOESS), and other recent independent reviews and audits of national
security and civil space system acquisitions. We are implementing these
lessons into our management and acquisition strategy. We have made
significant changes to our GOES-R program management and oversight based
on the direction and reviews from the Government Accountability Office
(GAO), the DOC Inspector General, the recent NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy
certification process, external independent review teams and our own
internal reviews.

We decided to remove one of the originally planned sensors for the
GOES-R program, the Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES), due to a
combination of development challenges, magnitude of required spacecraft
accommodations, and ground product implications that presented too much
risk to meet the operational requirements of the GOES-R program. This
included cost growth and unacceptable delays in the launch date. We also
determined that the ABI instrument can provide derived sounding products
that will meet mission continuity requirements. The ABI has many of the
same spectral bands and exceeds the spatial coverage rate and spatial
resolution of the current sounders.

Historically, NOAA funds and manages the program and determines the need
for satellite replacement, while the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) provides launch support and helps design,
engineer, and procure the satellites and some ground system elements.
After a satellite is launched and checked out by NASA, it is turned over
to NOAA for its operation. For GOES-R, we had planned to significantly
alter our management strategy from that used for previous GOES
acquisitions. NOAA was going to manage the overall acquisition program,
using technical support from NASA. Following the recommendations of our
Independent Review Team, we decided NASA will manage the sensor and the
instrument and space segment acquisitions, and NOAA will manage the
ground system acquisition and integration activities while managing the
overall program. GOES-R is scheduled for a late 2014 launch. The current
life-cycle estimate for the program is roughly \$7 billion for two
satellites that will provide operational coverage through 2026.

**GOES-R --- Next Steps**

The GOES-R program is being acquired in a phased approach. In April 2007
the second phase was completed, which involved multiple contracts with
industry. In this second phase, the Program Definition and Risk
Reduction Phase, three prime contractor teams were tasked with
developing the definition of system concepts and the identification and
mitigation of program risks. Additionally, technical, cost, schedule,
and other information were generated. The final phase in the GOES-R
acquisition process is the Acquisition and Operations (A&O) phase.
During this phase the satellite and ground designs will be completed and
the development, integration, testing, and deployment of the space and
ground elements of the system will occur.

**[What Are POES Satellites?]{.underline}**

NOAA's Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES)
consist of a pair of satellites that orbit over the poles at an altitude
of 540 miles approximately 14 times per day, repeating this same pattern
every 24 hours and providing near-global coverage every 12 hours. The
POES system provides global imagery and atmospheric measurements of
temperature, humidity, and stratospheric ozone. POES data are used
around the world for weather monitoring and prediction, and are the
foundation for global weather models needed for 3-7 day, and longer,
weather forecasts.

The launch of NOAA-N (currently operated as NOAA-18) inaugurated a new
era of international cooperation and introduced a new model for
polar-orbiting environmental satellite systems. Today, the three
satellite constellation consists of a Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program satellite in the early morning orbit, the European Organisation
for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) MetOp-A
satellite in the mid-morning orbit and the NOAA-18 in the afternoon
orbit. Both the NOAA and EUMETSAT satellites carry instruments that
collect and provide global data on cloud cover; surface conditions such
as ice, snow, and vegetation; atmospheric temperatures, moisture,
aerosol, and ozone distributions; and collect and relay information from
fixed and moving data platforms. As part of the EUMETSAT-NOAA
partnership, NOAA provided several key sensors that are being flown on
the MetOp series satellites.

NOAA currently has one additional POES to launch (NOAA-N Prime), which
is expected to provide continuity in the afternoon orbit until NPOESS is
launched. NOAA also has three additional POES on-orbit that no longer
meet mission specifications due to orbital drift and instrument
degradation or failures, but they can provide limited capability and
additional observations when available. Most notably these degraded
satellites are used to increase coverage and reduce the amount of time
it takes to receive and relay search and rescue alerts and animal
tracking data. Their direct broadcast signals are also used by other
governments to detect and track wildfires and other environmental
events.

**[The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
System (NPOESS)]{.underline}**

Since the early 1960s, the United States had maintained two distinct
polar satellite programs, one for military use and one for civilian use.
While data from both programs were exchanged, each program operated
independently. In 1994, after a thorough review and serious
consideration, President Clinton directed the merger of the military and
civilian operational polar-orbiting satellite programs. This new
program, NPOESS, is responsible for developing the next generation of
polar-orbiting satellites and sensors.

NPOESS is a unique program in the federal government. It is jointly
managed by the DOC, the Department of Defense (DOD), and NASA with
direct funding provided by DOC and DOD. At the senior level, the program
is overseen by an Executive Committee (EXCOM), which includes VADM
Conrad Lautenbacher, Administrator of NOAA, Dr. Michael Griffin,
Administrator of NASA, and Dr. Ron Sega, Under Secretary of the Air
Force. The EXCOM recently assigned a Program Executive Officer to
provide more frequent senior oversight of the program and reports back
to the EXCOM. The NPOESS program is managed, on a day-to-day basis, by
an Integrated Program Office (with staff from all three agencies).
NPOESS is being acquired using DOD acquisition authorities. In 2002,
Northrop Grumman was selected as the NPOESS prime contractor for
spacecraft development, ground systems, sensor integration, and
operations.

NPOESS is one of the most complex operational environmental satellite
system ever developed. The NPOESS program was designed as a series of
six satellites with new environmental sensors that represent significant
advances over current operational satellite technology. The new NPOESS
sensors will provide higher quality data, increase our ability to see
through clouds, and transmit the information back much faster than with
our current polar-orbiting satellites. These improvements will translate
into more sophisticated weather models, which will lead to better
forecasts and warnings. NPOESS also will enhance the data and products
used for climate and ocean research and operations as well as monitoring
space weather. The first NPOESS satellite will be launched in 2013, with
an expected lifetime of 7 years.

The NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) is a risk reduction mission
directed by NASA. NPP provides risk reduction for the NPOESS system by
demonstrating several new NPOESS sensors in space, ensuring the ground
control systems work properly, and allowing us time to assimilate the
new data into computer weather models before launch of the first
operational NPOESS satellite. The NPP mission will also collect and
distribute remotely-sensed land, ocean, and atmospheric data to the
meteorological and global climate communities as the responsibility for
these measurements transitions from NASA's existing Earth-observing
missions (e.g., Aqua, Terra and Aura) to the NPOESS. NPP will provide
atmospheric and sea surface temperatures, vertical profiles of moisture,
land and ocean biological productivity, and cloud and aerosol
properties.

The NPOESS program has presented numerous technical and management
challenges. In March 2005, the contractor informed the government NPOESS
would not meet cost and schedule, mostly because of the technical
challenges with the main sensor, the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer
Suite (VIIRS). In November 2005, it was determined the projected cost
overruns for the program would exceed the 25 percent threshold
triggering a breach of the Nunn-McCurdy statute. This required a full
six-month review of the program by the DOD, with the participation of
NOAA and NASA as full partners in the certification process.

In June 2006, the Nunn-McCurdy certification was delivered to Congress.
The resulting restructure of the NPOESS program has two fewer
satellites, fewer sensors, and less risk. Because of our partnership
with EUMETSAT, we are able to utilize the MetOp series satellites in the
mid-morning orbit to fulfill U.S. data requirements. The total cost of
the program increases, but so did our confidence in a timely delivery of
core weather forecasting capabilities. NPP is now scheduled to launch in
2009, and the first NPOESS satellite in 2013, at a total life-cycle
program cost of \$12.5 billion (FY 1995-2026).

**NPOESS and Climate Change Measurements**

While the main instruments on NPOESS will provide more than 50 percent
of the desired climate-related observations and data, a number of
secondary sensors were removed during the review process that would
provide some key climate parameters such as earth radiation budget,
solar irradiance, sea surface topography, and aerosol optical
properties.

NOAA and NASA have already committed to provide FY 2007 funding to
restore one of the sensors, the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS)
Limb (OMPS-limb), to the NPP satellite. By remanifesting OMPS-Limb to
OMPS-Nadir, we were able to obtain total and vertically resolved
stratospheric ozone measurements necessary to better monitor the
Antarctic Ozone phenomenon and other events. At the initiative of the
Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), NASA and NOAA are
continuing to work together to identify what may be done to assure
continuity of key climate measurements. NOAA and NASA provided OSTP with
a preliminary report in January 2007 and an update to the report will be
issued later this summer. We are also asking the National Academy of
Sciences, which provided us with the recent Decadal Survey for Earth
Observations, for recommendations on a path forward. The National
Academy hosted a workshop June 19-21 to seek input from the scientific
community on the changes to the NPOESS and GOES-R programs. OSTP will
work with the agencies and the Office of Management and Budget on a plan
of action to best address the National Academy's recommendations.

Another of the sensors demanifested from NPOESS was the Conical
Microwave Imager Sounder (CMIS). CMIS was planned to provide
observations of ocean wind speed and direction along with more than 10
other environmental parameters. The project had too many technical
challenges and risks and was cancelled. However, a smaller and less
complex replacement sensor will be procured and integrated onto the
second satellite to be launched in 2016.

**Program Oversight**

Following the recommendations of Independent Review Teams, the GAO, and
the Inspector General from DOC, the recent Nunn-McCurdy certification
process, external independent review teams, and our own internal
reviews, we have made significant management and oversight changes in
the program. In addition to personnel changes in both government and
contractor management, we made changes to the way the program is
monitored. We have put into place much more rigorous requirements to
measure earned value data, key milestones, dollars spent, and contractor
personnel. We are now tracking these metrics on a regular basis, which
provides real-time health and status of the program.

**NPOESS Status Update**

The significant management changes and the reduced risk profile
resulting from the Nunn-McCurdy certification and subsequent restructure
have had major positive affects on the program. The program is meeting
the interim budget and schedule. We are in the final stages of
renegotiating the contract, which should be complete this summer.

We are performing acceptance tests on flight hardware. In this phase of
development, we "test, break, fix" the hardware on the ground to be sure
it will function on-orbit. This practice is the main reason that our
satellites have historically performed for extended periods on-orbit.
Each of the instruments is in a different phase of acceptance testing.

There are still challenges and risks associated with the main
instrument, VIIRS. Corrective actions for all identified VIIRS
instrument problems are underway. One major technical issue remains and
we are pursing several potential solutions. This key instrument will
continue to be the focus of intense management attention for the
foreseeable future.

We have issued a request for information for a Microwave Imager/Sounder
(MIS), a less complex sensor than the original CMIS. The MIS is still
intended to provide data for a variety of products including estimates
of ocean surface wind speed and direction. The MIS is scheduled to first
fly on the second NPOESS spacecraft and then on all subsequent missions.
A final acquisition strategy decision is anticipated by September 2007,
and the contract award is anticipated in the winter of 2008.

Our number one priority throughout the Nunn-McCurdy analysis of the
NPOESS program has been to ensure there is continuity of our existing
data and in our ability to do weather forecasting between the old and
new systems. To minimize any potential gaps in coverage, we are
rescheduling launches of the remaining NOAA and DOD satellites. We do
not believe there will be a gap in data used for weather forecasting
under this plan. However, should the remaining NOAA POES satellite fail
on launch or in orbit, we would have to rely solely on DOD, European,
and NASA satellites. There would be some degradation to NOAA\'s weather
forecasting ability until NPP or the next NPOESS satellite could be
launched.

**[NOAA's Hurricane Forecasting]{.underline}**

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), a key component of the NWS and
NOAA, has been the centerpiece of our nation\'s hurricane forecast and
warning program for over 50 years. The NHC, working closely with local
NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in areas affected by hurricanes and
other tropical systems, saves lives, mitigates property loss, and
improves economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, and
forecasts of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing the public's
understanding of these hazards.

NOAA's forecasts and warnings for the 2005 hurricane season demonstrated
the abilities of the state of the art of hurricane prediction. Our
continuous research efforts at NOAA, and in partnership with
universities and other federal agencies, have led to our current
predictive capabilities and improved ways of describing uncertainty in
prediction. The impacts of hurricane winds, storm surge and inland
flooding remain major threats to the nation. Accurate and timely
hurricane forecasts provide emergency managers and the public
information needed to prepare for an approaching storm, including
considering evacuations, if necessary.

NOAA strives to improve the reliability, accuracy, and timeliness of our
predictions of hazardous weather, such as hurricanes, to help society
cope with these high impact events. Over the last 15 years, hurricane
track forecast errors have decreased by 50 percent, largely due to
advances in hurricane modeling, an increased understanding of hurricane
dynamics, improvements in computing and technology, and increased
observations from the region around the hurricane. Today's five-day
forecasts of a hurricane track are as accurate as three-day predictions
were 20 years ago. Hurricane predictions are better today than they have
ever been and will continue to improve in the future.

To help guide future research efforts and improvements, NOAA requested
that the NOAA Science Advisory Board commission a Hurricane Intensity
Research Working Group to provide recommendations to the agency on the
direction of hurricane intensity research. The Working Group transmitted
its final report to the Advisory Board in October 2006
(http://www.sab.noaa.gov/reports/reports.html). The Federal Coordinator
for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research released a report in
February 2007, *Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical
Cyclones: The Way Ahead,* to provide a strategy for continuing to
improve the effectiveness of operational forecasts and warnings through
strategic coordination and increased collaboration among the major
players in the operational and R&D communities
(<http://www.ofcm.gov/p36-isrtc/fcm-p36.htm>). Both of these reports
call for accelerated research investments and a deliberate focus on
moving research results to operations. In response, NOAA has created a
Hurricane Project Team to develop a unified approach to define and
accelerate hurricane forecast improvements over the next ten years.
Objectives will be focused on improved tropical cyclone forecasting
(intensity, track, precipitation, and uncertainty forecasts), storm
surge forecasts, flooding forecasts, and information and tools to
support community and emergency planning.

**[NOAA Hurricane Observations]{.underline}**

NOAA uses several systems to monitor hurricanes. Over the open oceans,
images from the GOES system are the first reliable indicators of any
storms or inclement weather. As hurricanes or other tropical systems
come closer to land, measurements from reconnaissance and surveillance
aircraft provide direct measurements of the storm, as do strategically
placed "hurricane" buoys. Within 200 miles of the coast, radars are used
to track the storm. Computer models used to predict storm track and
intensity require extensive amounts of data about the state of the
atmosphere, including wind direction and speed, temperature, moisture,
and air pressure. Over the open ocean, most of these data are derived
from satellite "sensing" of the atmosphere. Ships and other mid-ocean
buoys provide some data, but satellites are truly the "eye in the sky."
All of these data sources are part of an integrated observing system.

**Satellites**

Forecasters at the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center
(TPC/NHC) use images and other data provided by the GOES system to
analyze the storm and its surrounding environment and help to determine
the location, size, intensity, and movement of the storm. These images
are also prominently shown by the media. The satellites also provide
data about every eight minutes during a hurricane event. Instrumentation
on the satellites (both GOES and POES) measure emitted and reflected
radiation from which atmospheric temperature, winds, moisture, and cloud
cover are derived. Satellites provide:

-   Day (visible)/night (infrared) cloud images

-   Land surface temperatures

-   Sea surface temperatures

-   Cloud motion winds at several levels

-   Rainfall estimates

-   Cloud top heights

**Ships and Buoys**

Ships and buoys, including drifting buoys, provide information about
wind speed and direction, pressure, air and sea temperature, and wave
conditions within a tropical cyclone. Ships and buoys are the only
routine source of wave height and frequency in areas unobstructed by
land and are often the only way to take direct measurements near the
storm when a tropical cyclone is still at sea. Understandably, ships try
to avoid tropical systems and we have only sparse ocean buoys to provide
a level of "ground truthing" for indirect measurements (such as
satellite and radar) in the marine environment.

**Aircraft**

The most direct method of measuring the wind speed and direction, air
pressure, temperature, location of the eye and other parameters in a
hurricane is to send reconnaissance aircraft (hurricane hunters) into
the storm. Those measurements are limited given the large size of a
hurricane and the time the aircraft can remain in flight. Though we only
have a snapshot of small parts of the hurricane, that information is
critical in analyzing the current characteristics needed to forecast the
future behavior of the storm. TPC/NHC forecasters rely heavily on data
from reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft.

The U.S. Air Force Reserve uses specially equipped WC-130J aircraft to
conduct these reconnaissance flights. NOAA also flies its two WP-3D
Orion (P-3) aircraft.

When forecasters identify a developing tropical cyclone, WC-130J
aircraft fly their first missions to determine if the winds near the
ocean surface are blowing in a complete, counterclockwise circle, then
to find the center of this closed circulation. As the storm builds in
strength, they fly various patterns to obtain as complete a picture as
possible of the extent and strength of the winds and other parameters.
The 2005 hurricane supplemental budget provided funding to instrument
the fleet of WC-130J aircraft with Stepped-Frequency Microwave
Radiometers (SFMRs), which will provide additional details on a
hurricane's wind fields.

NOAA WP-3D Aircraft also fly into hurricanes with a wide variety of
scientific systems onboard the aircraft providing data and information
to forecasters, scientists, and modelers. Of particular interest are the
two radars which provide a full 360° depiction of weather and
three-dimensional horizontal wind vectors around the aircraft out to a
distance of 180 nautical miles. Data from these radars, along with
meteorological and position data from onboard sensors, are transmitted
to the NHC in real time via high-speed satellite communications. The
WP-3D aircraft also serves as a test bed for emerging technologies such
as the SFMR (which now reside on both WP-3D aircraft), the Imaging Wind
and Rain Airborne Profiler, and the Scanning Radar Altimeter.

Given the current limitations in satellite observations, the only
inner-core wind data routinely available --- derived from the SFMR
(surface winds), airborne tail Doppler radar (three dimensional
structure), and GPS dropwindsonde (point vertical profile) --- are
collected by aircraft reconnaissance (NOAA WP-3D and U.S. Air Force
WC-130J). The combination of SFMR, airborne tail Doppler radar, and GPS
dropwindsonde (see below) is essential for real-time interpretation of
rapidly changing events, especially near landfall. The SFMR capability
is especially critical to the forecasters.

In addition to the reconnaissance missions, NOAA also has a
state-of-the-art Gulfstream-IV (G-4) high altitude jet aircraft, which
flies missions around the storm, known as surveillance missions. NOAA\'s
Gulfstream IV jet, which began operational hurricane surveillance
missions in 1997, is used to sample the physical nature of the
atmosphere from high altitude down to the surface in the region
surrounding hurricanes. These data better define the environmental
steering flow for potential landfalling storms and help improve track
forecasts. The data are transmitted in real time to NOAA's National
Centers for Environmental Prediction, where they are assimilated into
the Global Data Assimilation System.

**Dropwinsondes and Radiosondes**

A radiosonde is a small instrument package and radio transmitter that is
attached to a large balloon. As the balloon rises through the
atmosphere, the radiosonde instrument provides data on air temperature,
humidity, pressure and wind speed and direction. These data are relayed
back to computers for use in forecast models. Radiosondes are generally
only released over land, which leaves a large gap over the oceans.
That's where dropwinsondes, a variation on the radiosonde, are used.
Instead of being carried aloft by a balloon, the dropwinsondes, which
are attached to a small parachute, are dropped into and around the
hurricane from the reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft. The data
from radiosondes and dropwinsondes provide an important vertical profile
of the hurricane\'s environment, which is critical for forecast models.
These data have helped forecasters make great strides in understanding
and predicting hurricane behavior.

**Expendable Bathythermographs**

Expendable bathythermographs are instruments dropped into the water and
measure water temperature and other parameters to a depth of 200 feet.
These instruments provide us with an idea of the energy content of the
water which fuels hurricanes.

**Surface Observations**

There are more than 950 Automated Surface Observation Systems (ASOS)
across the country. These monitoring systems provide forecasters with
surface weather observations, wind speed and direction, temperature,
dewpoint (moisture), cloud cover, and conventional weather (e.g., rain,
fog, snow) around the clock. However, because the systems are
land-based, ASOS data is mainly useful once the hurricane has come close
to shore or after it has made landfall. This information is invaluable
in post-analysis.

**Radar**

When a hurricane nears the coast, typically within 200 miles, it is
monitored by land-based Doppler weather radars. These radars provide
detailed information on hurricane wind fields, rain intensity, and storm
movement. As a result, local NWS offices are able to provide short-term
warnings for floods, tornadoes, and high winds for specific areas. In
radar images, the forecaster can pick out details about storm features,
such as the location of the eye, storm motion, and intensity. The radial
wind velocity product gives forecasters important information about wind
speed and direction that was not available with the older style radars.
These tools allow forecasters to provide much more timely and accurate
warnings than were possible only a few years ago. A limitation of these
radars is they cannot \"see\" farther than about 200 miles from the
coast, and hurricane watches and warnings must be issued long before the
storm comes into range.

All of these data are assimilated into NCEP's data stream and
incorporated into computer model forecasts to provide the fundamental
understanding of the developing tropical cyclonic atmosphere and ocean
environment, the tropical inner and outer core, and the interaction
among these components. But that is just part of the value. This
information is used directly by hurricane forecasters who make the
predictions of the hurricane track and intensity and the decisions for
any watches and warnings.

# [Hurricane Forecasting and Satellites]{.underline} 

As I stated earlier, satellites, particularly GOES, provide the first
indications of a tropical system. They are absolutely critical in our
prediction mission. Data from GOES help our forecasters analyze the
storms and its surrounding environment, and help determine its location,
size, intensity, and movement. POES, with the advanced
microwave-sounding unit and the advanced very high resolution
radiometer, provide precipitation estimates, qualitative estimates of
storm intensity trends, sea surface temperatures, storm center position,
convective structure and atmospheric temperature/humidity profiles. POES
are not always over the storm since these satellites orbit the globe.
This is in contrast to GOES, which are stationary relative to the
Earth's surface. Data from these satellites play an important role in
NOAA's hurricane computer models, which are the backbone of our
predictive capability.

In addition, NOAA uses data and observations gathered from several other
low Earth orbiting satellites. These include:

-   The [Defense Meteorological Satellite Program]{.underline}, using
    the special sensor microwave/imagery suite of instruments, provides
    information on ocean surface wind speed, precipitation, sea surface
    temperatures, center position and convective structure.

-   NASA's [Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission]{.underline} (TRMM)
    satellites, using the TRMM microwave imager, provide
    precipitation/rain rate, center position, convective structure, and
    sea surface temperatures.

-   The NASA [AQUA]{.underline} satellite mission using the moderate
    resolution imaging spectroradiometer, the advanced microwave
    scanning radiometer and the atmospheric infrared sounder to provide
    precipitable water, water vapor, sea surface temperatures, center
    position, convective structure and atmospheric temperature/humidity
    profiles.

-   NASA's Research Satellite, [Jason]{.underline} -- using an altimeter
    sensor to provide the surface height of the oceans, a proxy for the
    amount of heat potentially available to help fuel a hurricane.

-   European MetOp satellite sensor, [ASCAT]{.underline}, using an
    active scatterometer to provide wind speed and direction, but at a
    low spatial resolution. Currently not incorporated into NOAA
    forecast models, but accessible to forecasters.

-   NASA's [QuikSCAT]{.underline}, using the SeaWinds scatterometer,
    provides wind speed, wind direction, center location and wind radii.

**[What is QuikSCAT?]{.underline}**

Recently, concerns have been expressed about one of these satellite
tools --- QuikSCAT. QuikSCAT is a NASA satellite that launched in 1999
to research the ability to measure ocean wind speed and direction. Wind
speed and direction are valuable pieces of information to hurricane
forecasters. While data was available some months after launch, it has
been a long, ongoing process to discover how to use the data optimally.
The data allow for more reliable estimation of maximum intensity,
especially for tropical storms, but not for major hurricanes, due to the
wind speeds encountered there. QuikSCAT provides improved detection and
tracking of circulation centers, and improved analysis of storm size and
structure, which do affect watches and warnings.

**What Is Its Limitation?**

While the information from QuikSCAT has proved to be an important tool,
there are several limitations, specifically as it relates to hurricanes.
Since QuikSCAT is a polar-orbiting satellite, and as with all such
satellites (including POES and NPOESS), it circles the globe and may
provide data about a hurricane at most twice a day, usually only once a
day. Sometimes, it may not be at the right place at the right time. Gaps
between the coverage area, or swaths, approach 1000 kilometers in the
deep tropics. Because hurricane wind speeds change over relatively short
distances, the 12.5-km spatial resolution of QuikSCAT's observation
makes it difficult to measure winds faster than 65mph, the approximate
speed at which a tropical storm becomes a hurricane. It also has
significant problems seeing through the rain, which is a major portion
of the hurricane environment. QuikSCAT's usefulness becomes
significantly less important as the storm gets closer to
continental-U.S. landfall where forecasters are able to rely on data
from the hurricane reconnaissance aircraft.

**What Is Its Status?**

While QuikSCAT was launched in 1999, with a three-year mission, and
consumables to last at least five years, it is now in its eighth year.
The primary transmitter lasted seven years and failed last year, and now
the satellite is operating on its backup transmitter. Like any
satellite, especially one past its design life, QuikSCAT could fail at
any time. However, according to NASA, the instrument is healthy and
should continue to operate for several more years. It also has enough
fuel to last through 2011.

**What is NOAA's Plan**

Since the late 1990s, NOAA has had a plan to obtain ocean wind speed and
direction data from NPOESS. As stated previously, during the
Nunn-McCurdy process the CMIS instrument was removed to reduce the
overall risk. A replacement sensor will not be available until the
launch of the second NPOESS scheduled for 2016. In June 2006, the NWS
held a workshop to define new requirements for ocean surface wind speed
and direction. It was determined that only the active approach used by
QuikSCAT, a scatterometer, had the potential to meet the new
requirements; the passive approach used by the MIS instrument aboard
NPOESS did not. The Admiral redirected FY 2007 funds to be used to start
a study with NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab, which built QuikSCAT, on
building a satellite to replace or enhance our current capabilities. The
results of that study are due in January 2008 and we plan to use it and
other information to determine the best way to provide ocean surface
wind speed and direction to forecasters.

**What Will You Do If It Fails Today?**

If QuikSCAT were to fail today, I want to assure you and the public that
we are not blind to forecasting hurricanes. On the contrary, as stated
earlier in my testimony, there are many tools and observations that our
forecasters rely on as they make their predictions. It is the GOES
satellites in particular that are the most crucial for hurricane
forecasting. We have an on-orbit spare GOES and an additional two on the
ground while we are developing the next generation. With regard to ocean
surface wind speed and direction data, there are two other satellites,
WindSat (a Navy research satellite with a passive system) and MetOp (the
EUMESTAT satellite carrying the active ASCAT scatterometer), which
provide data similar to, although not quite as good as, QuikSCAT. The
coverage area, or swaths, of these two satellites are about 60 percent
of QuikSCAT.

The European satellite was launched late last year and the NHC is just
now starting to receive the data and learning how to use it in models
and in their forecasts. We do not yet have any specific information on
what the effect to the models or the forecasts would be through the use
of ASCAT. The good news about ASCAT is that the Europeans plan to fly
this sensor on a series of successive satellites until at least 2020.

We will also be exploring agreements with India and China as they are
expected to launch satellites with scatterometers, with technology
similar to QuikSCAT, late in this decade. We do not know the
specifications of their satellites and historically these nations have
not fully shared their environmental data, especially in a timely
manner. However, we are exploring this option as well.

Finally, we are also examining how to increase the use of our hurricane
hunter aircraft through more flight hours and outfitting the planes with
more advanced technologies. We are also researching the feasibility of
placing scatterometers on Unmanned Aircraft Systems.

**[Conclusion]{.underline}**

Satellites are very complicated and difficult systems to design, build,
and operate. However, their capabilities play an important role in
NOAA's mission to observe and predict the Earth's environment and to
provide critical information used in protecting life and property.
Advances in hurricane prediction depend not only on improved
observations such as those from satellites, but also on improved data
assimilation, computer models, and continued research to better
understand the inner workings of hurricanes.

I believe we are making significant strides in developing a better
process for designing and acquiring our satellites. We have fully
functioning operational satellites with backup systems in place, and we
are working on the next generation that will provide significant
improvements in our ability to forecast the weather. I would be happy to
answer any questions you may have.