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March 2008 Series No 5

**West Africa Title II Food Loss Trends**

**FY 2000- FY 2006**

**Introduction**

This report is part of the West Africa Title II Commodity Management
Project (WACOM) initiated by the West Africa Regional Food for Peace
Office (RFFPO) in 1998. WACOM's goal is to help improve the efficiency
and impact of Title II food aid commodities monetized in West Africa.
Its operational objective is to review and compile Cooperating Sponsor
(CS) commodity and recipient reports to increase the Title II
community's understanding of critical commodity management issues in
West Africa.

In recent years, great efforts were made by Title II PVOs and the RFFPO
in West Africa to reduce Title II food losses in the region. The overall
food loss rate was reduced from 2.8% in FY 2000 to 0.7% in FY 2002.
However, since FY 2003, an increase in Title II food losses has been
observed in West Africa. Several factors are attributed to the increase,
particularly Wheat Soya Blend (WSB) loss. In order to better understand
the causes and pattern of these losses, Title II food loss records from
FY 2000--FY 2006 were reviewed in this study in relation to location,
site, country, and commodity type. The value of lost commodities and
loss rates and trends over time were also analyzed.

**Methodology**

In order to complete this report, loss report data from Quarterly
Commodity Status Reports, Damaged and Misused Commodity Report submitted
to the RFFPO by 27 CS programs in 13 countries, were analyzed. The WACOM
database for the FY 2000--FY 2006 period was reviewed and 4,028
individual food loss records were collected by the RFFPO in Dakar. SPSS,
Excel, and Eview software were used for data analyses, graphical
presentations and forecasting/exponential smoothing.

**Results**

On average, annual opening food stocks for Title II CS programs in the
West Africa region totaled 27,563 MT. An additional 155,461 MT of Title
II food arrived in the region during each fiscal year suggesting that a
total of 155,461 MT (plus opening stocks) of Title II commodities were
available in the region per year during the FY 2000-2006 period. Of the
total Title II food available in the region each year, 144,408 MT or 82%
was dispatched/distributed or monetized. On average, closing stocks per
year of the study period (i.e., food remaining in warehouses) amounted
to 27,197 MT or 15% of total food availability.

**The overall food loss rate\--the number of MT of food lost divided by
the number of MT of food available during the fiscal year\--was
estimated at an average of 1.6% during the last six years.** The average
vessel loss rate was 1.07% against 0.53% for in-country food loss rate.
In absolute terms, PVOs reported on average 2,842 MT of commodity losses
(i.e., vessel plus in-country losses) per year. From FY 2000 to 2006,
average vessel and in country food loss in West Africa was estimated at
1,666 MT and 1,176 MT, respectively (Table 1).

Table 1: West Africa Title II Commodity Management Statistics (FY
2000-2006)

+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+
|                                             | Average Quantity       |
|                                             |                        |
|                                             | MT                     |
+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+
| Initial Stock                               | 27,563                 |
+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+
| Total Food Received                         | 155,461                |
+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+
| Total Food Available                        | 177,150                |
+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+
| Total distribution& monetization            | 144,408                |
+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+
| Final Stock                                 | 27,197                 |
+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+
| Vessel loss                                 | 1,666                  |
+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+
| In-Country loss                             | 1,176                  |
+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+
| Inventory ratio                             | 17.49%                 |
+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+
| Vessel loss rate                            | 1.07%                  |
+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+
| Total loss rate                             | 1.60%                  |
+---------------------------------------------+------------------------+

Based on the rate of food loss trends observed during FY 2000-2006,
vessel losses accounted for the majority of total losses. Out of the
total average food loss of 2,842 MT, 57% were vessel losses, 18%
warehouse losses and 11% transit/road losses. The distribution center
losses represented 9% of the losses and the port losses accounted for 5%
of the total food losses (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Food Loss by Site

![](media/image2.wmf){width="5.020833333333333in" height="4.0in"}

*- Food Loss by country*

As shown in Figure 2, three countries\--Ghana, Sierra Leone and Burkina
Faso\--accounted for more than 70% of Title II food losses recorded
during the six years. Food losses in Ghana represented 37% of these
losses. In FY 2000, a CS in Ghana reported 2,000 MT of bulk wheat for
monetization was contaminated from a fuel oil spillage during ocean
transportation.[^1] This loss rate was 7.1% of the bulk wheat call
forwarded. Another PVO in Ghana reported 4% of losses for its direct
distribution program. In FY 2001, Ghana presented the highest quantity
of food loss accounting for 79% of vessel losses.

In FY 2000, Title II CSs in Sierra Leone reported a total loss of 1,327
MT of food\--representing a total loss rate of 4%, including 3% vessel
and 1% in country losses. Vessel food losses accounted for 72% of
losses. In FY 2001, Title II CSs in Sierra Leone reported a total of
613.42 MT of food losses. The same CSs declared food losses of 195 MT in
FY 2002-2003. In FY 2006, these PVOs declared 329 MT of food losses with
vessels accounting for 295.56 MT of the loss.

Figure 2: Food loss by Country

![](media/image3.wmf){width="5.90625in" height="4.114583333333333in"}

*- Loss trend*

As shown in Figure 3, the lowest quantity of food losses was recorded in
FY 2002 and FY 2003 and the highest quantity in FY 2000. Substantial
efforts were spent by the RFFPO in Dakar to reduce these food losses in
West Africa. By FY 2002, these efforts began to produce positive
results, whereby the quantity of Title II food loss was reduced to about
1,000 MT as compared to 6,000 MT in FY 2000. However, since FY 2004,
increased Title II food loss was observed. This was mainly due to food
infestation, particularly fortified foods such as WSB. Between FY 2003
and FY 2007, a loss of 2,637 MT of WSB with a total value of over \$1.6
million was recorded in West Africa. The major cause of these losses was
due to infestation. These losses occurred mainly from FY 2005-2006.

Figure 3: Food loss Trend by Location
![](media/image4.wmf){width="5.395833333333333in" height="4.09375in"}

*- Food loss by commodity type*

From FY 2000-2001, bulk wheat loss from Ghana was the major Title II
food commodity lost in West Africa (Figure 4). From FY 2005-2006,
infested WSB comprised the majority of losses. Commodities such as rice
represented 10-35% of Title II food losses in West Africa annually
during this period. Rice is stolen most often during port operations or
inland transportation in Burkina Faso, Benin, and Sierra Leone.

Figure 4: Food Loss by Commodity
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Figure 5: WSB Loss

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height="4.114583333333333in"}

\- *Food Loss by Factor*

Food short landed[^2] from vessels remains the major reason for Title II
food losses during food marine transportation in West Africa. For
example, from FY 2004-2006 more than 60% of food marine losses were due
to short landing. The second common factor behind vessel food losses in
the region is reconditioning or reconstitution of bags after commodity
spillage during port operations (Figure 5). Cases of water damage and
infested foods were also identified after vessel off load.

Theft and infestation are the two main causes of in-country Title II
food losses in the West Africa region (Figure 6). Contrary to previous
years, FY 2005 and FY 2006 were characterized by a high rate of food
losses due to infestation. These infested foods (mainly WSB) were
identified in Ghana, Mauritania, Senegal and Gambia. During these two
years, 50% of the food losses were due to infestation. Food losses
during reconditioning/reconstitution were estimated at 10-45% of food
losses in West Africa. Food theft represented less than 10% from FY
2005-2006 as compared to over 50% in the FY 2000-2002 period.

The distribution of in-country food losses causes varies according to
countries. In Ghana and Benin, infestation was the main cause of
in-country food losses. Food infestation in Ghana was related to the
quality of the WSB. However, in Benin, WSB infestation was due to a long
duration of food storage in distribution center warehouses. For example
in FY 2005, about 78 MT of infested food was discovered in distribution
centers; most of the food had remained in warehouses for more than 12
months.[^3]

In that regard, it is noteworthy that according to FY 2005 WACOM data,
25% or 417 MT of the total Title II in-country food lost in FY 2005 had
been stored in warehouses for six months. About 65% (1,119 MT) of the
lost commodities in FY 2005 had remained in warehouses for 7-12 months.
Furthermore, around 10% (176 MT) of these in-country food losses were
stored in warehouses for more than 12 months. About half (53%) of the
food which had remained in warehouses for more than 12 months were
collected in central warehouses\--compared to 31% during inland
transportation and 15% in end-use distribution centers. It is likely
that food losses at distribution centers could be much lower if proper
distribution center monitoring was conducted. **The review indicates
that\--assuming that the in-country food loss rate is proportional to
CSs's food inventory and not taking into account WSB
infestation\--annually around 30% of Title II food commodities remain in
the warehouses of implementing partners for more than 12 months before
eventually reaching beneficiaries.**

Figure 6: Vessel Loss Value by Factor
![](media/image7.wmf){width="5.46875in" height="3.6666666666666665in"}

Figure 7: In Country Loss Value by Factor

![](media/image8.wmf){width="5.4375in" height="4.072916666666667in"}

*- Food loss value and rate*

Food losses expressed as a dollar value or as a percentage of total
program value were more than \$2 million in FY 2000 and have fallen to
about \$500,000 in FY 2002-2003. However, since FY 2004, Title II food
losses have increased in the region mainly due to WSB infestation.

Expressed as a percentage of total value of the foods received, total
loss rates have declined from 2% in FY 2000 to 0.82% in FY 2002 (see
Figure 8). These rates have increased since FY 2003 and reached 2% in FY
2006.

Figure 8: Loss Value and Rate Trend

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height="3.435416666666667in"}

*- Title II food loss forecast*

The Holt-Winters exponential smoothing forecasting technique was used to
predict the value and rate of Title II food losses during the next three
fiscal yeas. FY 2002 - FY 2006 time series data were used for this
analysis. Results are presented on Figures 8 and 9.

If the current Title II food loss trend is maintained, the total value
of food losses is estimated to be \$1,328,703; \$1,484,194; and
\$1,639,685 respectively in FY 2007, FY 2008 and FY 2009 (see Figure 8).
**It is estimated that the Title II food loss rate will be 3.5% in FY
2009 if nothing is done to reverse the current food loss trend.**

Figure 9: Forecasted Loss Value

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height="3.998611111111111in"}

Figure 10: Forecasted Loss Rate

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**Findings/Recommendations**

The findings of this internal review of food loss trends indicates that
financial and human resources are urgently needed in the West Africa
Region to better monitor Title II food distributions. Field-based FFP
commodity managers are particularly needed in Niger, Sierra Leone, and
Burkina Faso, given the high loss rates observed in Burkina Faso and
Sierra Leone (see Figure 2) and the increasing amount of Title II food
provided to Niger. FFP staff in Washington and in the field also need to
better monitor vessel loss claims as well as losses at CS central
warehouse and distribution warehouse centers throughout the region.

Moreover, there is a need to improve coordination between the program
and commodity management offices of FFP implementing partners conducting
food distributions. Most CSs in the region often have inadequate food
storage and handling facilities and food distribution and monetization
programs often lack internal control systems. CS headquarter or regional
office also do not consistently conduct internal audits of food aid
commodities nor do they adequately monitor their sub-guarantees'
programs. The late and unexpected arrival of food commodities has
negatively affected the ability of CSs to properly plan for and handle
Title II food programs. The recent high rates of turnover among
FFP/Washington and PVO staff have further made it difficult for CSs to
manage their programs. Better coordination is also needed between FFP/W
and the FFP field offices particularly during commodity call forwards.
CSs should be encouraged to submit call forward requests and food
pipeline information ten (10) days before the due date. The pipeline
information will be analyzed by the RFFPO before call forward approvals
are made. For Title II processed commodities, more information should be
provided readily and consistently to CSs on the characteristics of these
foods, including their shelf life, storage conditions, and composition.

[^1]: In FY 2003, over one-third of in-country food loss value
    (\$133,859) in West Africa was from this PVO.

[^2]: Short landed is the difference between what was loaded at the
    origin and what arrived at destination.

[^3]: This problem was subsequently identified and addressed by the
    PVO's regional commodity manager.