Required Report - Public distribution

**Date:** 9/30/2008

**GAIN Report Number:** TH8150

TH0000

**Thailand**

**Grain and Feed**

**Weekly Rice Price Update**

**2008**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Corey Pickelsimer, Agricultural Attaché

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Ponnarong Prasertsri, Agricultural Specialist, Maysa Kunasirirat,
Agricultural Assistant

**Report Highlights:**

Domestic and export prices trended downward as higher accumulative
Government rice stocks from the aggressive intervention program is
fueling anticipation an imminent stock release. Also, most exporters are
optimistic about current limited flood damage which has occurred as part
of this year's monsoon season. Despite Thai rice being priced higher
than Vietnamese, Thai rice exporters expect enquiries from the Latin
American countries, like Chili and Peru, as Thai premium white rice
prices are growing more competitive with U.S.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Trade Report

Bangkok \[TH1\]

\[TH\]

**Indicative Prices (Week Ending Sep. 29):**

  ------------- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ----- ------ -------- ------
  Thailand:                                                                      
  Export (FOB)                                                                   
  Prices for                                                                     
  various                                                                        
  grades of                                                                      
  rice                                                                           
  (USD/M.T.)                                                                     

                Exporter                                                Period   
                Observations                                            Avg.     

                #1             #2     #3     #4     #5     #6    #7     CUR.     PRV.

  F WR 100 B    820            \-     \-     \-     850    790   \-     820      830

  WR 100 B      685            \-     700    690    710    685   680    692      713

  PB 5%         \-             \-     685    \-     730    675   690    694      729

  WR 5%         670            \-     695    670    690    665   675    678      694

  WR 10%        \-             \-     \-     \-     \-     658   \-     658      \-

  WR 15%        \-             \-     \-     \-     \-     640   \-     640      \-

  WR 25%        \-             \-     \-     \-     \-     575   \-     575      655

  WR 35%        \-             \-     \-     \-     \-     \-    \-     \-       \-

  A 1 SUP       390            \-     \-     \-     410    410   400    403      418

  A 1 SPEC      \-             \-     \-     \-     \-     \-    \-     \-       \-

  Source:                                                                        
  Average                                                                        
  actual prices                                                                  
  received from                                                                  
  exporters,                                                                     
  Exchange                                                                       
  rate: 33.7                                                                     
  baht/U.S.\$                                                                    
  ------------- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ----- ------ -------- ------

###### Market Tone 

Domestic and export prices trended downward as higher accumulative
Government rice stocks from the aggressive intervention program is
fueling anticipation an imminent stock release. By the end of the
second-crop intervention program (Sep. 30), the Government should have
absorbed 4.2 million tons of paddy (out of the expanded target of 4.5
million tons) valued at approximately 50 billion baht (\$1.5 billion).
This will bring total stocks to 4.9 million tons of rice, of which 2.1
tons were old-crop intervention stocks. The Government reportedly plans
to release some of this stock through Government-to-Government sales and
tenders for exports by mid-October. Currently, warehouse space remains
limited for new main-crop intervention program (MY 2008/09) beginning in
October. This new program also expected to absorb no less than 8.0
million tons, as the intervention prices remain higher than current
market prices. Traders expect it will take several months to fully
export all the upcoming released stocks.

Exporters are optimistic about current limited flood damage which has
occurred as part of this year's monsoon season. Flood water has
reportedly receded quickly in many areas. Also, most flooding occurred
in areas where farmers typically do not currently cultivate any crops
(TH8147). Meanwhile, foreign buyers, including Iran, remain hesitant to
buy Thai rice which is still being offered nearly \$200/MT higher than
Vietnamese rice. However, Thai rice exporters expect enquiries from the
Latin American countries, like Chili and Peru, as Thai rice premium
white rice prices are growing more competitive with U.S.

The following are the reported rice exports (as is basis):

  ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ------------ ------------
  WEEK       QUANTITY    4-WK AVG    YEAR TO     YEAR AGO     YEAR TO DATE
  ENDING                             DATE                     AS % OF LAST
                                                              YEAR

             (MT)        (MT)        (TMT)       (TMT)        \%

  Jul 27     182,769     175,180     5,204       2,980        74.6

  Aug 3      101,488     158,534     5,305       3,062        73.3

  Aug 10     122,027     146,116     5,427       3,165        71.4

  Aug 17     125,268     132,888     5,553       3,254        70.6

  Aug 24     155,649     126,108     5,708       3,355        70.2

  Aug 31     154,550     139,373     5,863       3,442        70.4

  Sep 7      131,622     141,772     5,995       3,573        67.7

  Sep 14     129,898     142,930     6,124       3,717        65.0

  Sep 23     125,818     135,472     6,250       3,866        61.7

  Sep 30     133,622     130,240     6,384       4,060        57.3
  ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ------------ ------------

*Note on data: Export figures since March 22, 2002, do not include
fragrant rice. The authority to report fragrant rice exports was moved
from the Thai Board of Trade to the Ministry of Commerce's Office of
Commodity Standards, which does not release official fragrant rice
export data. FAS/BKK will report only official export numbers from the
Board of Trade for non-fragrant and from the Office of Commodity
Standards for fragrant rice when available, but the reader should bear
in mind the difference between the data.*

Unofficial exports (excluding fragrant rice) for Sep. 22-26, 2008
totaled 133,622 up 7,804 the previous week, and up 3,382 from the
four-week moving average of 130,240 tons. Exports during Jan. 1 -- Sep.
26, 2008 totaled 6,383,853 tons, as compared with 4,059,572 tons in the
previous year.

According to the Department of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce,
total rice exports (including fragrant rice) during Jan. 1 -- Sep. 19,
2008, amounted to 8,104,404 tons, up 39.22 percent from 5,821,252 tons
in the previous year.

**Weekly Rice Sales**

Private registered rice export sales for the period of Sep. 1-5, Sep.
15-19, and Sep. 22-26\
are as follows:

  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  Movement (MT)       Sep. 8-12         Sep. 15-19        Sep. 22-26

  Weekly sales        104,613           144,381           112,431

  4 week sum          \-                \-                396,997

  4 week mov. avg.    \-                \-                99,249

  Total weekly sales  5,543,389         5,687,770         5,800,201
  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

End of Report.