**February 2008 NC Weather Review**

**Monthly Headlines**

...Except for the coastal areas... precipitation remained below normal
in February 2008...

...Extreme to exceptional drought conditions persisted...

\...Temperatures were well above normal...

**February 2008 Precipitation**

There were several significant rain events that occurred across North
Carolina during February, after one of the driest January's on record.
The February precipitation totals were generally between 2 and 3 inches
across the northwest, ranging to between 4 and 6 inches over the
southeast and Outer Banks. These totals were generally less than an inch
below normal, except 1 to 3 inches above normal along the coast.
Raleigh-Durham totaled 3.16 inches (0.31 inches below normal).
Greensboro totaled 2.65 inches in February (0.45 inches below normal).
There were a few locations that reported above normal rainfall totals
for February. These locations were confined to the coastal sites
including: Elizabeth City, Cape Hatteras, and Wilmington. Cape Hatteras
tallied a record February rainfall of 6.95 inches.

The February 2008 radar estimated rainfall totals are depicted in figure
1, while the observed rainfall totals and departures from normal for
selected locations are depicted in figure 2.

![](media/image1.png){width="5.872222222222222in"
height="3.759027777777778in"}

**Figure 1. Radar estimated precipitation amounts for February 2008.**

![](media/image2.wmf){width="5.583333333333333in"
height="3.8020833333333335in"}

**Figure 2. Comparison of observed and normal precipitation for February
2008 at selected locations across North Carolina.**

The stream flow into main stem rivers and local reservoirs did show some
slight increase from the near historical record lows that were set in
January. The North Carolina Drought Monitor, shown in figure 3,
highlights the exceptional drought conditions throughout the interior
sections of state as of March 4, 2008.

![](media/image3.png){width="5.354861111111111in"
height="3.551388888888889in"}**\
Figure 3. N.C. Drought Monitor observed on March 4, 2008.**

For the latest information concerning the drought, visit:

<http://www.ncwater.org/drought/>

**February 2008 Temperatures**

February 2008 temperatures were much above normal across North Carolina.
The statewide monthly temperatures generally ranged between 3 and 5
degrees above the 30 year statistical normal.

Raleigh-Durham averaged 48.0 degrees for February 2008, which was 5.0
degrees above normal. Daily record high temperatures of 76 and 77
degrees were set on the 5^th^ and 6^th^ respectively.

Greensboro averaged 45.3 degrees in February, which was 4.1 degrees
above normal. Daily record high temperatures of 74, 69, and 71 degrees
were set on the 5^th^, 6^th^, and 18^th^

respectively.

The average monthly temperatures for selected areas across the state are
shown in figure 4.

Figures 5 and 6 depict the daily maximum and minimum temperatures
observed throughout February 2008 at Raleigh-Durham (RDU) and Greensboro
(GSO), respectively.

![](media/image4.png){width="6.948611111111111in"
height="3.2805555555555554in"}

**Figure 4. Monthly average temperatures for February 2008. Data was
obtained from official NWS ASOS sites and selected unofficial
cooperative observer reports.**

![](media/image5.wmf){width="5.53125in" height="3.2604166666666665in"}

**Figure 5. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures observed during
February 2008 at Raleigh-Durham (RDU).**

![](media/image6.wmf){width="5.375in" height="3.2604166666666665in"}

**Figure 6. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures observed during
February 2008 at Greensboro (GSO).**

**Significant weather events this month included:**

**[http://www4.ncsu.edu/\~nwsfo/storage/cases/20080210/]{.underline}**

**Current, Semi-Annual and Annual Temperature Trends**

The warmth in February continued the recent trend of record setting
warmth across North Carolina since August 2007. Six of the past seven
months have been warmer than the 30 year statistical normals, some with
record setting warmth. Only November 2007 had temperatures that were
slightly below normal at Raleigh-Durham. Greensboro has had seven
straight warmer than normal months.

Eleven of the past twelve months have been warmer than normal at
Raleigh-Durham, and ten of the past twelve months have been warmer than
normal at Greensboro (figure 7).

![](media/image7.wmf){width="5.59375in" height="3.59375in"}

**Figure 7. Monthly temperature departures from normal at Raleigh-Durham
and Greensboro from February 2007 through February 2008.**

**Current, Semi-Annual, and Annual Precipitation Trends**

Three of the past five, five of the past eight, and nine of the past 14
months have been drier than normal at Raleigh-Durham (RDU). The rainfall
deficit at RDU since the beginning of the current long term drought in
January 2007 (14 months ago) stood at 10.44 inches on March 1, 2008. At
Greensboro, the rainfall deficit at Greensboro since January 1, 2007 was
14.83 inches (ending March 1, 2008). Figures 8 and 9 show the monthly
precipitation versus normal at Raleigh-Durham and Greensboro,
respectively, since February 2007.

![](media/image8.wmf){width="5.416666666666667in" height="4.21875in"}

**Figure 8. Semi-annual and annual precipitation trends at
Raleigh-Durham (RDU).**

![](media/image9.wmf){width="5.447916666666667in"
height="3.3645833333333335in"}

**Figure 9. Semi-annual and annual precipitation trends at Greensboro
(GSO).**

**North Carolina Water Resources Information and Outlook**

The drought status essentially remained unchanged at the end of February
2008. Even with more frequent rains in February, the rainfall amounts
were fairly light. The slightly below normal rainfall amounts over the
interior of the state basically kept the drought status from worsening.
Extreme to exceptional drought conditions remained over much of the
interior sections of North Carolina on March 1^st^, 2008. Such drought
conditions continue to impact the major metropolitan areas of Charlotte,
Winston-Salem-Greensboro-High Point, and Raleigh-Durham.

The rainfall during February allowed the stream and even main stem river
levels over central North Carolina to show occasional slight increases.
There was even rainfall to allow an increase in water inflow into Jordan
and Falls Lakes, the water suppliers for Raleigh, Cary, and surrounding
municipalities. Falls Lake, after falling to the all-time record low of
241.53 feet on December 25, 2007, increased to near 243.5 feet in early
January 2008. The lake levels then tailed off to around 243.0 feet
through early February, when some rise was again noted. A very gradual
rise continued through much of February, with a peak recorded near 244
feet on February 28^th^. This was only up nearly 2.5 feet since the
historical minimum recorded on December 25, 2007 (see figure 10 below).

![](media/image10.wmf){width="7.250694444444444in"
height="5.249305555555556in"}

**Figure 10. Falls Lake level August 2007 through February 2008. A new
record minimum level of 241.53 feet was set on December 25 2007. Even
through the region still tallied below normal rainfall during January
and February 2008, the more frequent rains especially in February
allowed the lake level to slowly come up nearly 2.5 feet by February 28,
2008.**

**Climate Outlook for the spring and summer of 2008**

The Climate Prediction Center recently released the spring and summer
outlooks. Details concerning this forecast can be found at the web
address below:

[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif)

The winter and early spring seasons are typically when streams, rivers,
and reservoirs are replenished by the cool season rains. The outlook for
the remainder of this spring season is for slightly elevated odds of our
region to receive above normal rainfall in March; however, the outlook
for April and May may not be as promising. The latest forecasts
indicated slightly increased odds favoring below normal rainfall in
April and May 2008 (reference figure 11 below).

The affects of the strong La Nina conditions over the Equatorial Pacific
historically have brought sub par or below normal rainfall amounts
throughout the southeastern United States including North Carolina
during the winter and spring. The affects of La Nina precipitation
patterns are reduced in the summer season and are not expected to be a
factor. Therefore, there is a return to equal odds of our region
receiving above, near, or below normal rainfall is forecast for the
summer season. The seasonal drought outlook indicated that improvement
in the drought conditions over North Carolina through May 2008
(reference figure 12).

![](media/image11.png){width="6.997916666666667in"
height="3.6972222222222224in"}

**Figure 11. Precipitation Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
for March through May 2008.**

![](media/image12.png){width="5.625in" height="4.34375in"}

**Figure 12. U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, valid through June 2008.**

You can keep up with latest monthly and seasonal forecasts by visiting
the Climate Prediction Center website at
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/>.

Enhanced local three month temperature outlooks for central North
Carolina are now available at
<http://www.weather.gov/climate/calendar_outlook.php?wfo=rah>

**NC Weather Review Team**

Phillip Badgett

Brandon Dunstan

Barrett Smith