# NASA Office of Earth Science -- Applications Program

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*ENERGY FORECASTING*

***Program Plan: 2003-2007***

![](media/image1.wmf){width="1.1902777777777778in"
height="0.9840277777777777in"}*Science for Society*

> *Accelerating the realization of economic*
>
> *and societal benefits from Earth science,*
>
> *information, and technology ...*

**ENERGY FORECASTING**

*Program Plan: 2003-2007*

**I. Purpose and Scope**

[ESE & Applications Program]{.underline}

The purpose of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) is to increase our
knowledge of the Earth system, including its response to natural and
human-induced changes to enable improved predictions of climate,
weather, and natural hazards. ESE and the Applications Program serve
NASA and Society by expanding and accelerating the realization of
societal and economic benefits from Earth science, information, and
technology research and development.

The overarching goal of the Applications Program is to bridge the gap
between Earth science research results and the adoption of data and
prediction capabilities for reliable and sustained use in decision
support.

The Enterprise works through partnerships with public, academic, and
private organizations to develop innovative approaches for using Earth
science information and technology. The Applications Program enhances
the availability, interoperability, and utility of Enterprise and
private sector data sets, communications, computing, and modeling
capabilities to serve specific national applications.

Overall, the approach is to enable the assimilation of Earth science
data and model outputs to serve as inputs to decision support tools and
assessments. Developments may be specific to a national application or
may be served through a cross-cutting solution. The outcomes and impacts
are manifest in enhanced decision support and the social and economic
benefits gained through improved decision making, public information,
and efficient and effective management.

[National Applications]{.underline}

The specific National Applications partner with organizations,
especially Federal and private-sector organizations, with appropriate
information infrastructure to apply NASA data and models. These partners
own and operate Decision Support Systems for their policy, analysis and
management responsibilities.

The Applications Program supports the national applications by providing
the partners with opportunities to enhance their Decision Support
Systems. A challenge is to integrate copious volumes of data with
computationally demanding scientific models in order to produce and
package products that operational users can accommodate in their systems
for analysis and decision making. Decision Support Systems provide
systematic mechanisms to handle the volumes of data, incorporate model
outputs and predictions, and benchmark the value of the products.

The Enterprise Applications Program employs functional steps of
Applications Research, Verification & Validation, and Benchmarking in
its systematic approach to bridge the gaps between the research and
operational domains.

> *Applications Research*: Evaluate the requirements and technical
> feasibility of Earth science data and models, information products,
> and predictions in partners' operational decision support needs.
>
> *Verification & Validation*: Measure the performance characteristics
> of data, information, models, and predictions to meet requirements for
> the applications.
>
> *Benchmark*: Enable the adaptation and adoption of geospatial
> information and methods derived from Earth science results to serve
> decision support

The desired outcome of the national applications is for the partner
organization to use the project results, such as guidelines and
prototypes and procedures, as benchmarks for operational use and enhance
their management and decision-making capabilities with appropriate Earth
science products and tools.

The following Program Plan describes the activities for a systematic
approach to evaluate, verify, benchmark, and extend the use of Earth
Science knowledge, data, and technology to support our partners'
decision support tools and management responsibilities.

The Geospatial Interoperability Office (GIO) is responsible for
leadership and promotion of the Geospatial Interoperability Program
through the development of standards in the interest of increased
understanding and decision-making in support of NASA, NASA\'s Earth
Science Enterprise and the National Applications. Interoperability will
enable our Decision Support Systems to integrate data from models and
measurements enabling more effective decision and knowledge support. As
NASA\'s National Applications and our associate partner agencies
progress the GIO and interoperability will play a strategic role in the
advancement of these programs.

**Purpose:**

To improve the Nation's public and private capability for integrating
environmental data into sound management of energy demand and energy
availability while expanding the economy and raising the standard of
living of all Americans. NASA's science missions in cooperation with
other federal agencies and research organizations have made measurable
contributions to the understanding of climate, weather, land usage in
the context of natural and human influences on the environment. NASA
intends to add value to applications focused on energy demands and
availability with traditional primary renewable and non-renewable
resources. Applications with alternate primary energy sources will also
be evaluated.

NASA recognizes that Federal Departments such as Interior, Agriculture,
Commerce, Transportation, and Energy, and Agencies such as Environmental
Protection, Federal Emergency Management have primary responsibilities
in energy consumption, conservation and creation. NASA will work
cooperatively with these entities and the private sector to apply our
unique science results and mission technology to further the National
goals for energy independence.

The Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) initiative proposes
to coordinate with various agencies, industry associations, and
companies to convert appropriate ESE radiation and meteorology science
data over the globe into industry-specific parameters and formats for
incorporation into industry and other-agency government Decision Support
Systems (DSS).

**Background**

In the year 2000, energy-sector industries associated with producing,
supplying, and consuming electrical power exceeded \$1.4 trillion.
Recent energy-related shortages have fueled the debate over national
energy policy, bringing to the forefront issues concerning increased
energy-efficient consumption, production of energy from new sources, and
the integration of these new sources of power into existing grids.
Ensuring affordable energy is critically important to the health of the
nation's economy. As energy-related technologies become more
sophisticated, the demand for more detailed weather and solar radiation
information increases. This applications project is dedicated toward
expanding the use of weather and solar energy information in four
energy-related industries:

1.  **Renewable Energy Production**: One developing energy source,
    renewable energy technologies (RETs), is expected to provide between
    5% and 10% of the world's energy within 25 years, rising to 50% by
    the year 2050. The estimated average growth rate of the solar energy
    (photovoltaic) market is 25% per year through the year 2010
    (Maycock, 2000). Growth in wind turbine sales has averaged 40% per
    year for the past 5 years (Gipe, 2000). Utility-grid-connected solar
    thermal power plants will be cost competitive with fossil fuel
    plants in the near future, and various international organizations
    are currently offering significant economic incentives to deploy
    initial plants (Rannels, 2000). During the last decade, renewable
    energy sources contributed substantially to the growth in U.S.
    energy production, outpacing all fuel sources except for nuclear
    energy (National Energy Policy, 2001). Estimates of the magnitude
    and variability of solar energy and prevailing winds are critical to
    the optimal selection of locations for these technologies.

2.  **Building Design**: Architects and engineers are incorporating
    energy-efficient technologies into new building projects. A
    scientist with the U.S. Department of Energy, has noted that
    industry now has the capability to design and construct buildings
    that use 50% less energy at no increase in construction cost if
    accurate environmental data are available (Balcomb and Curtner,
    2000).

3.  **Biomass Fuel Development**: Raising crops as a fuel source is a
    large developing industry. This biomass industry originated using
    corn crops, but new species are under development. Many other
    species are also used for biomass-based manufacturing to reduce
    reliance on petrochemicals in other industries. The energy industry
    requires environmental parameters for planning, monitoring, and
    predicting yield of various fuel crops.

4.  **Energy Utilities**: Utility companies make decisions on the buying
    and selling of power based partly on information about short-term
    weather fluctuations and historic seasonal conditions. With growing
    supply from Renewable Energy sources utilities are developing
    strategies to optimize and integrate the production and use of
    alternative energy sources into traditional systems. Traditional
    weather data for air temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind
    are no longer sufficient.

To date, the energy sector has relied on historical meteorological and
solar energy information only to provide location-specific climate
context to guide the feasibility and optimization of an energy-producing
technology (i.e., wind and solar energy). The historical context helps
to measure the future performance of the technology at that location.
However, information regarding future weather and climate variability is
necessary for more accurate design and for more efficient operation of
systems. The balance between supply and demand of affordable energy is
vitally important to our economy. The energy industries are continuing
to develop decision-support systems to deal with these complexities.
POWER envisions the development of datasets to support these
decision-making systems directly.

**II. Approach:**

The approach of POWER is to develop information pathways to DSS's
supporting energy demand and availability in industry and government
entities requiring historical environmental data while simultaneously
developing the capability to produce such information in near-real time
from satellite observations and from weather and climate forecasts. To
facilitate this approach POWER uses a basic 3 step procedure:

1.  Research the industry sector, decide the field needs, and create a
    prototype data set

2.  Partner to foster relationships, increase exposure and interact with
    partners, DSS developers and data users

3.  Specialize to meet the industry needs, cultivate new users and
    upgrade the capabilities and parameters

This approach was applied to the solar and wind industries in the
development of a highly successful web based data set called the Surface
meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set. Since its inception, the
SSE web site has now received over 1 Million hits with nearly 180,000
data document downloads and 10,000 unique users. To develop this data
set NASA climate research data sets were processed to produce specific
parameters needed by industry engineers. The work was completed in
partnership with the Department of Energy/National Renewable Energy
Laboratory (DOE/NREL), the Canadian Meteorological Service (CANMET)
Energy Diversification Research Laboratory (CEDRL), and several small
solar and wind companies. NASA has developed a direct link between the
SSE web site and CEDRL's renewable energy DSS called RETScreen^TM^.

The approach of POWER builds on SSE and is illustrated in Figure 1.
POWER is aimed at providing data from new NASA missions and research
projects directly to DSS's used in the energy sector industries. POWER
will also facilitate the development of parameters from weather and
climate forecast models to such DSS's. As EOS new missions are flown an
improvement of the data sets and eventually forecasts will be made.
Figure 2 depicts the increase in understanding in time with each new
mission relevant to improving the estimation of surface meteorology and
radiation energy fields. The new data sets will become the baselines for
improved POWER forecasts of the relevant industry parameters.

![](media/image3.jpeg){width="6.402777777777778in"
height="4.896527777777778in"}

![](media/image4.wmf){width="6.6506944444444445in" height="4.9625in"}

**Projected Cost/Benefit Analysis:**

The expected costs for the current fiscal year (FY; \$175K not yet
provided), a bridge year (FY 2003), and the first 5 years for the NASA
Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) initiative in thousands
of dollars is given in the Figure and Table below. The fiscal expenses
for the bridge year, FY 2003, are needed to continue the process of
developing partnerships and interagency agreements through research and
marketing efforts. Another FY 2003 goal is to improve current data set
based on new science and engineering advances to continue support for
current partnerships and to provide a strong basis for future
prototypes. The total needed for FY 2003 is \$398,024 as broken out
below. The formal POWER initiative is slated to begin in FY 2004.

Through FY 2008, the project ramps up capabilities by providing for
research into the identification and development of industry parameters
needed for the utility energy and the energy efficient building
architecture/engineering industry sectors. The NASA contribution to the
funding level at this time is estimated at \$1.25 million dollars.
Although, the funding levels beyond FY 2008 are still being developed,
the NASA contribution for succeeding years is expected to be level and
then be reduced as the transition is made from development to
operational deliverables. In the FY 2006 time period, work to provide
agricultural parameters for biomass energy crops is planned to begin.

The initial emphasis with the partnership with the Department of Energy
(DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), industry societies
(like the Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI)) and private
companies will be to provide and test historical data parameters. These
collaborative partners are expected to pledge their own resources toward
the POWER initiative goals. The collaborative partner line item
represents an estimate of these types of contributions that will depend
upon the early successes of the project. Also, during this time the
Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) will be become a partner for the
processing and internet access of the data sets. Lastly, the POWER
program also envisions soliciting and funding a limited number of
collaborations to increase core capabilities. Contracts will focus on
specific aspects of the parameter development problem in the Energy
industry and in the Energy Efficient Building sector and planned to
require nearly \$300,000.

In time, a growing emphasis will be placed upon aspects of the
predictive problems and the partnerships will expand their emphasis into
the incorporation of predictive parameters into their development tools.
To facilitate the predictive parameters the collaboration with NOAA and
other operational modelers becomes active to begin deriving and
verifying parameters predicted from model forecasts and assimilations.
This will begin in FY 2004 as data is supplied by NOAA, but the NOAA
contribution is expected to increase in labor and expenses. By FY 2008,
the NOAA collaboration should entail the labor of at least one full
person plus computing expenses. By this time, the NASA sponsored effort
will be used in the production of a series of forecasted prototype data
sets at a variety of forecasting periods. The prototype data sets for
the longest forecast periods (multi-year) are expected to be latest in
development as scientific and information technology advancements are
made.

The costs of this plan are compared to the benefits as shown in Table 1.
This table summarizes benefits through the initial 5 year period and
through an extended period providing time for market saturation of the
data products and algorithms. Although no realized estimates are
expected to the Biomass and Energy sectors by 2007, the fundamental
development for these projects will completed and in place for
measureable benefits in each sector beginning in FY08. These benefits
assume the budgets outlined above.

**Description of expected deliverables**

The following general deliverables are expected in the next 2-4 years:

1.  SSE Releases 4-6: These enhanced versions of the web site will
    provide many more important solar and wind parameters and statistics
    not normally available to industry engineers. Additionally, the
    Release 4 web site will link directly to other decision making tools
    in the renewable energy industry. Finally, the web site includes
    upgrade user questionnaires to better understand the needs of the
    users and the benefits of having this data available. The Release 5
    version will include cloud and solar energy parameters at a true 1
    degree latitude by 1 degree longitude resolution. By Release 6, the
    highest resolution meteorological data available will be
    incorporated into the data set, as well as new information from
    scientific research improving the data. The Release 6 product will
    be processed more closely to the current times.(Rel 4 will end in
    2003, Rel. 5 in 2005).

2.  Energy Efficient Buildings Data Set: This data set will be
    specifically designed for building engineers and architects who wish
    to use recent past and future weather conditions to reduce electric
    power costs and emissions. Solar energy parameters are included
    needed to compute the ambient light resources of the buildings
    areas. Wind, temperature and humidity information are now use to
    optimize the orientation of the building and its heating,
    air-conditioning, ventilation systems. The data set will be made
    compatible with existing industry design packages.

3.  Historic prototype data sets for Agriculture/Electric Power Load: In
    addition to the energy-efficient buildings data sets, prototype data
    sets will be developed with various partners to address needs in
    both the agriculture and in forecasting electric power load and
    supply. Electric Power load is forecasted through an existing tool
    that requires regional climate data as one of its inputs. A data set
    will be prepared to be ingested by this tool.

4.  Short-term forecasted prototype data sets: Knowledge of methods for
    deriving energy industry parameters from scientific data sets will
    be applied toward weather and climate forecasted fields. Prototype
    data sets from forecasted fields will be developed for both the
    renewable energy industry and energy-efficient building industry.

**Deliverable timeline** (not to exceed 4 years)

1.  FY03

    a.  SSE Release 4

    b.  Prototype Energy-Efficient Building

2.  FY04

    a.  Prototype for Electric Power Load

    b.  Energy-Efficient Buildings Release

    c.  SSE Release 5

3.  FY05

    a.  Electric Power Load, Release 1

    b.  Prototype Forecasted Renewable Energy

    c.  Prototype Forecasted Energy-Efficient Buildings

4.  FY06

    a.  SSE Release 6

    b.  Agricultural Prototype data set

    c.  Electric Power Load forecast prototype

**FY03**

1.  Develop and release the Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy web
    site to maintain already existing relationships within the renewable
    solar and wind energy industries.

> Activites:
>
> a\. validation of release 4 parameters including winds

b\. completion and validation of algorithms to estimate direct and
diffuse solar radiation and

solar radiation incident to tilted surfaces

c\. documentation of new parameters

d\. testing and delivery of web interface code to the Atmospheric
Science Data Center at

NASA Langley.

Resources:

Personnel FTE

> Civil Servant 0.05

Contractor 0.80

Milestones:

Web site release

2.  Solidification of Partnerships:

> National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
>
> Purpose: Continue the building of intra-governmental, intra-NASA,
> public private and international government agreements to facilitate
> POWER. The task is to make substantial progress in negotiating
> agreements with NOAA, DOE/NREL, EPRI, and the Canadian Government. We
> will also be building partnerships within NASA such as with the NASA
> Stennis Research Center.
>
> Activities:
>
> a\. presentations and briefings to officials in other agencies
>
> b\. planning of collaboration activities
>
> c\. drafting agreements
>
> d\. completing the signature processes

Resources:

Personnel FTE

Civil Servant 0.35

Contractor 0.25

Milestones:

Complete at least 2 of 4 formal agreements.

3\. Energy Efficient Building Historic Prototype Development

> Purpose: Using SSE Release 4 data, begin building a new web site to
> support the energy efficient building industry. Interact with energy
> efficient building decision-making tool researchers (i.e., NREL) to
> develop the needed parameters. Begin process of contacting perspective
> data users and the industry associations of the American Association
> of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air-conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) and
> the AIA (American Institute of Architects).

Activities:

a\. continue design/implementation/validation of new parameters
(illumination)

b\. design of data sets consistent with currently existing tools in the
industry

c\. begin testing of data sets with tools

> d\. interact with NREL on usage and seek contacts within the ASHRAE
> and AIA industry associations

Resources:

Personnel FTE

Civil Servant 0.1

Contractor 0.7

Milestones:

> Completion of algorithm design for new parameters; establishing
> contacts within ASHRAE and AIA and identifying prototype users.

4\. Data Processing for SSE Release 5:

> Purpose: Two upgrades are needed quickly to continue to usage. The
> first is to make available higher resolution cloud data sets and the
> second make data sets available past 1995. The higher resolution cloud
> data is now available from the NASA Surface Radiation Budget Project.
> This new information must be processed to produce 1x1 degree data sets
> of cloud and solar energy parameters. These will be used to upgrade
> the current data set that is interpolated to the 1 x 1 degree
> resolution. The latter, processing more modern times, can only be
> accomplished by switching to an appropriate meteorological data base.
> The NOAA NCEP R2 reanalysis has been chosen for this purpose. The
> meteorological data between NCEP R2 and old data set must be compared
> and validated against ground measurements. Certain algorithms will
> have to be adjusted.

Activities:

a\. processing of NASA SRB data for 1x1 clouds and radiation

b\. obtaining, processing, and intercomparing NCEP data set to old data
set

> c\. construction/validation of new data sets.

Resources:

Personnel FTE

Civil Servant 0.05

Contractor 0.60

Milestones:

> Processing of NASA SRB data to produce 1 x 1 degree clouds and
> radiation parameters compatible with industrial use; Obtaining and
> assess NCEP R2 data sets for intercomparison to the original data for
> periods of time.

5\. Initial NREL Collaboration

> Purpose: Work with NREL to begin quantifying seasonal and interannual
> variations in renewable energy resources using the SSE Release 4 data.
> Exchange information needed to validate SSE Release 4 variables.
>
> Activities:
>
> a\. perform analysis of 10 year data set to assess seasonal and
> interannual variations in the resource parameters in relation to
> industry needs.
>
> b\. obtain and exchange validation information for several new data
> parameters in the SSE Release 4 data set

Resources:

Personnel FTE

Civil Servant 0.05

Contractor 0.35

Milestones:

> Develop and complete plan to assess seasonal and interannual
> variations from 10 year data set. Obtain and exchange validation
> information for new parameters.

6\. Initial NOAA Collaboration:

> Purpose: Work with NOAA researchers to develop understanding of
> current forecast products and begin to determine methods to use these
> products to compute industrial parameters.
>
> Activities:
>
> a\. survey forecast products for parameter information and
> deficiencies,
>
> b\. select test periods containing validation data and obtain sample
> data sets
>
> d\. begin validation of forecast data products.

Resources:

Personnel FTE

Civil Servant 0.05

Contractor 0.30

Milestones:

> Obtain information regarding data parameters; select test periods and
> obtain sample data sets from NOAA collaborating researchers.

7\. Initial EPRI Collaboration

> Purpose: Work with EPRI to design and possibly supply data sets from
> SSE Release 4 to support research into the automated neural net
> short-time load forecaster (ANNSTLF) tool. Find other tools and
> research projects where data is useful.

Activities:

a\. develop list of specifications for data parameters needed for the
ANNSTLF

b\. begin to develop prototype data sets for delivery to EPRI

Resources:

Personnel FTE

Civil Servant 0.05

Contractor 0.30

Milestones:

> Develop specification list for ANNSTLF and other tools dedicated to
> electric power load forecasting

  ------------ ---------------- --------------- --------- -------------- --------- -------------- --------- --------- -------- -- ---- ----
  **Scenario                                                                                                                           
  #1: Original                                                                                                                         
  Proposed                                                                                                                             
  Budget for                                                                                                                           
  FY03: \$400K                                                                                                                         
  (\$100K                                                                                                                              
  additional                                                                                                                           
  needed CERES                                                                                                                         
  Program for                                                                                                                          
  FY02)**                                                                                                                              

  **Activity   **Activity       **Activity      **Civil   **Contractor   **Civil   **Contractor   **LaRC    **Total                    
  Number**     Title**          Milestones**    FTE**     FTE**          Servant   Cost**         Service   Cost**                     
                                                                         Cost**                   Cost**                               

  1            SSE Release 4    Website release 0.05      0.80           1,950     86,400         4,320     92,670                     
                                to public                                                                                              

  2            Partnership      At least 2      0.35      0.25           13,650    27,000         1,350     42,000                     
               Solidification   interagency                                                                                            
                                agreements                                                                                             

  3            Energy           \(1\) Continue  0.10      0.70           3,900     75,600         3,780     83,280                     
               Efficicient      development and                                                                                        
               Building         validation of                                                                                          
               Prototype        new parameters                                                                                         
                                for prototype.                                                                                         
                                (2) Interact                                                                                           
                                with ASHRAE and                                                                                        
                                AIA officials                                                                                          

  4            SSE Release 5    \(1\) Assess    0.05      0.60           1,950     64,800         3,240     69,990                     
               Processing       upgrade of                                                                                             
                                meterological                                                                                          
                                data sets to                                                                                           
                                enable                                                                                                 
                                production past                                                                                        
                                1995. (2)                                                                                              
                                Processing of                                                                                          
                                NASA SRB data                                                                                          
                                to produce 1 x                                                                                         
                                1 degree clouds                                                                                        
                                and radiation                                                                                          
                                parameters                                                                                             
                                compatible with                                                                                        
                                industrial use.                                                                                        

  5            NREL             \(1\) Develop   0.05      0.35           1,950     37,800         1,890     41,640                     
               Collaboration    and complete                                                                                           
                                plan to assess                                                                                         
                                seasonal and                                                                                           
                                interannual                                                                                            
                                variations from                                                                                        
                                10 year data                                                                                           
                                set. (2) Obtain                                                                                        
                                and exchange                                                                                           
                                validation                                                                                             
                                information for                                                                                        
                                new parameters.                                                                                        

  6            NOAA             \(1\) Obtain    0.05      0.30           1,950     32,400         1,620     35,970                     
               Collaboration    information                                                                                            
                                regarding data                                                                                         
                                parameters (2)                                                                                         
                                select test                                                                                            
                                periods and (3)                                                                                        
                                obtain sample                                                                                          
                                data sets from                                                                                         
                                NOAA                                                                                                   
                                collaborating                                                                                          
                                researchers                                                                                            

  7            EPRI             \(1\) Develop   0.05      0.30           1,950     32,400         1,620     35,970                     
               Collaboration    specification                                                                                          
                                list for                                                                                               
                                ANNSTLF and                                                                                            
                                other electric                                                                                         
                                power load                                                                                             
                                forecasting                                                                                            
                                tools (2)                                                                                              
                                Develop plan                                                                                           
                                for prototype                                                                                          
                                data sets                                                                                              

                                                                                                                                       

  Totals                                        0.70      3.30           27,300    356,400        17,820    401,520                    
  ------------ ---------------- --------------- --------- -------------- --------- -------------- --------- --------- -------- -- ---- ----

  -------------- ---------------- -------------------- ---------- -------------- ------------ -------------- ------------ ------------- ---------------
  **Scenario #3:                                                                                                                        
  Intermediate                                                                                                                          
  Proposed                                                                                                                              
  Budget for                                                                                                                            
  FY03: \$300K                                                                                                                          
  (\$100K                                                                                                                               
  additional                                                                                                                            
  needed to                                                                                                                             
  CERES for                                                                                                                             
  FY02)**                                                                                                                               

  **Activity     **Activity       **Activity           **Civil    **Contractor   **Civil      **Contractor   **LaRC       **Total       **Impacts**
  Number**       Title**          Milestones**         FTE**      FTE**          Servant      Cost**         Service      Cost**        
                                                                                 Cost**                      Cost**                     

  1              SSE Release 4    Website release to   0.05       0.80           1,950        86,400         4,320        92,670        NA
                                  public                                                                                                

  2              Partnership      At least 2           0.35       0.25           13,650       27,000         1,350        42,000        NA
                 Solidification   interagency                                                                                           
                                  agreements                                                                                            

  3.1            Energy Efficient \(1\) Continue       0.05       0.50           1,950        54,000         2,700        58,650        NA
                 Building         development of new                                                                                    
                 Prototype        parameters for                                                                                        
                                  prototype.                                                                                            

  3.2            Energy           (1b) Validation of                                                                                    Slows
                 Efficicient      parameters (2)                                                                                        validation of
                 Building         Interact with ASHRAE                                                                                  prototype
                 Prototype        and AIA officials                                                                                     parameters
                                                                                                                                        needed to
                                                                                                                                        solicit
                                                                                                                                        feedback and
                                                                                                                                        support from
                                                                                                                                        ASHRAE and AIA;
                                                                                                                                        push prototype
                                                                                                                                        release back to
                                                                                                                                        FY04

  4              SSE Release 5    \(1\) Assess upgrade 0.05       0.60           1,950        64,800         3,240        69,990        NA
                 Processing       of meterological                                                                                      
                                  data sets to enable                                                                                   
                                  production past                                                                                       
                                  1995. (2) Processing                                                                                  
                                  of NASA SRB data to                                                                                   
                                  produce 1 x 1 degree                                                                                  
                                  clouds and radiation                                                                                  
                                  parameters                                                                                            
                                  compatible with                                                                                       
                                  industrial use.                                                                                       

  5              NREL             \(1\) Develop and    0.05       0.35           1,950        37,800         1,890        41,640        NA
                 Collaboration    complete plan to                                                                                      
                                  assess seasonal and                                                                                   
                                  interannual                                                                                           
                                  variations from 10                                                                                    
                                  year data set. (2)                                                                                    
                                  Obtain and exchange                                                                                   
                                  validation                                                                                            
                                  information for new                                                                                   
                                  parameters.                                                                                           

  6              NOAA             \(1\) Obtain                                                                                          Delays onset of
                 Collaboration    information                                                                                           NOAA
                                  regarding data                                                                                        collaboration
                                  parameters (2)                                                                                        to FY04; delays
                                  select test periods                                                                                   development of
                                  and (3) obtain                                                                                        all forecasted
                                  sample data sets                                                                                      prototypes by
                                  from NOAA                                                                                             at least 1 FY.
                                  collaborating                                                                                         
                                  researchers                                                                                           

  7              EPRI             \(1\) Develop                                                                                         Delays onset of
                 Collaboration    specification list                                                                                    collaboration
                                  for ANNSTLF and                                                                                       with key
                                  other electric power                                                                                  strategic
                                  load forecasting                                                                                      partner w/
                                  tools (2) Develop                                                                                     large potential
                                  plan for prototype                                                                                    benefits by at
                                  data sets                                                                                             least 1 FY

                                                                                                                                        

  **Totals**                                           **0.55**   **2.50**       **21,450**   **270,000**    **13,500**   **304,950**   
  -------------- ---------------- -------------------- ---------- -------------- ------------ -------------- ------------ ------------- ---------------

  ------------ ---------------- ------------------ ---------- -------------- ------------ -------------- ----------- ------------- ----------------
  **Scenario                                                                                                                       
  #2: Minimal                                                                                                                      
  Budget for                                                                                                                       
  FY03: \$200K                                                                                                                     
  (\$100K                                                                                                                          
  additional                                                                                                                       
  to CERES for                                                                                                                     
  FY02)**                                                                                                                          

  **Activity   **Activity       **Activity         **Civil    **Contractor   **Civil      **Contractor   **LaRC      **Total       **Impacts**
  Number**     Title**          Milestones**       FTE**      FTE**          Servant      Cost**         Service     Cost**        
                                                                             Cost**                      Cost**                    

  1            SSE Release 4    Website release to 0.05       0.80           1,950        86,400         4,320       92,670        NA
                                public                                                                                             

  2            Partnership      At least 2         0.35       0.25           13,650       27,000         1,350       42,000        NA
               Solidification   interagency                                                                                        
                                agreements                                                                                         

  3.1          Energy Efficient \(1\) Continue     0.05       0.25           1,950        27,000         1,350       30,300        NA
               Building         development and                                                                                    
               Prototype        validation of new                                                                                  
                                parameters for                                                                                     
                                prototype.                                                                                         

  3.2          Energy           (1b) Validation of                                                                                 Slows validation
               Efficicient      parameters. (2)                                                                                    of prototype
               Building         Interact with                                                                                      parameters
               Prototype        ASHRAE and AIA                                                                                     needed to
                                officials                                                                                          solicit feedback
                                                                                                                                   and support from
                                                                                                                                   ASHRAE and AIA;
                                                                                                                                   push prototype
                                                                                                                                   release back to
                                                                                                                                   FY04

  4.1          SSE Release 5    \(1\) Assess       0.05       0.30           1,950        32,400         1,620       35,970        NA
               Processing       upgrade of                                                                                         
                                meterological data                                                                                 
                                sets to enable                                                                                     
                                production past                                                                                    
                                1995.                                                                                              

  4.2          SSE Release 5    \(2\) Processing                                                                                   Delays
               Processing       of NASA SRB data                                                                                   production of
                                to produce 1 x 1                                                                                   1x1 clouds and
                                degree clouds and                                                                                  radiation
                                radiation                                                                                          represeting
                                parameters                                                                                         state-of-art
                                compatible with                                                                                    parameters; this
                                industrial use.                                                                                    upgrade shows
                                                                                                                                   promise for
                                                                                                                                   signficant
                                                                                                                                   improvement and
                                                                                                                                   is important for
                                                                                                                                   attracting usage
                                                                                                                                   and
                                                                                                                                   collaboration.

  5            NREL             \(1\) Develop and                                                                                  Delays
               Collaboration    complete plan to                                                                                   significant NREL
                                assess seasonal                                                                                    collaboration
                                and interannual                                                                                    impacting the
                                variations from 10                                                                                 design and
                                year data set. (2)                                                                                 validation of
                                Obtain and                                                                                         new parameters
                                exchange                                                                                           in several
                                validation                                                                                         energy sectors
                                information for                                                                                    including solar
                                new parameters.                                                                                    energy, winds
                                                                                                                                   and energy
                                                                                                                                   efficient
                                                                                                                                   building
                                                                                                                                   parameters.

  6            NOAA             \(1\) Obtain                                                                                       Delays onset of
               Collaboration    information                                                                                        NOAA
                                regarding data                                                                                     collaboration to
                                parameters (2)                                                                                     FY04; delays
                                select test                                                                                        development of
                                periods and (3)                                                                                    all forecasted
                                obtain sample data                                                                                 prototypes by at
                                sets from NOAA                                                                                     least 1 FY.
                                collaborating                                                                                      
                                researchers                                                                                        

  7            EPRI             \(1\) Develop                                                                                      Delays onset of
               Collaboration    specification list                                                                                 collaboration
                                for ANNSTLF and                                                                                    with key
                                other electric                                                                                     strategic
                                power load                                                                                         partner w/ large
                                forecasting tools                                                                                  potential
                                (2) Develop plan                                                                                   benefits by at
                                for prototype data                                                                                 least 1 FY
                                sets                                                                                               

                                                                                                                                   

  **Totals**                                       **0.50**   **1.60**       **19,500**   **172,800**    **8,640**   **200,940**   
  ------------ ---------------- ------------------ ---------- -------------- ------------ -------------- ----------- ------------- ----------------