""

Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 11/21/2003

**GAIN Report Number:** IV3010

IV3010

**Cote d\'Ivoire**

**Grain and Feed**

**Annual**

**2003**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Portia McCollum

U. S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Antoine Anzele

**Report Highlights:**

Post forecasts a fall in 2003/2004 rice production due to poor rainfall,
lingering political instability and reduction in planted hectares. Cote
d'Ivoire's rice consumption rose in 2003 and is expected to continue to
increase in 2004 due to rising population and continued urbanization.
Likewise, rice imports are expected to continue to increase in 2003 and
2004 due to the civil unrest that has weakened the country's food
production base. The U.S. has made a significant advance in the
commercial sale of 16-35 percent broken rice to Cote d'Ivoire. It
exported 11,681 MT in 2002 and 43,000 MT in 2003.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Annual Report

Abidjan \[IV1\]

\[IV\]

**Table of Contents**

[Executive Summary 2](#executive-summary)

[Production 3](#production)

[Consumption 4](#consumption)

[Consumption Subcategory 4](#consumption-subcategory)

[Trade 5](#trade)

[Trade Subcategory 7](#trade-subcategory)

[Stocks 9](#stocks)

[Policy 9](#policy)

[Marketing 9](#marketing)

# Executive Summary

Post forecasts a fall in 2003/2004 rice production due to poor rainfall
distribution, lingering political instability and reduced plantings. The
rainfall in 2003 was poorly distributed during the growing period. The
unsettled political situation with its attendant insecurity did not
permit a full scale farming activities in rebel-occupied northern areas.
Also, in some government-controlled areas, migrant farmers are having
difficulties in getting access to cultivable lands.

The 2003/2004 rice marketing has been lackluster. The activities of
small cottage mills suffered a decline due to insufficient supply of
paddy for milling. Paddy prices are high between 90-95 F CFA/kg at farm
gate and 100-105 F CFA/kg at cottage mills.

Rice consumption rose in 2003 and is expected to continue to increase in
2004 due to the increasing population coupled with the political crisis
that has led to growing migration from rural areas to major cities.
Despite the availability of other food crops such as cassava, yams,
plantain and cocoyam during the harvest period, the last trimester of
2003, the price of rice is relatively cheap. In addition, the
availability of these crops is only seasonal and their price escalation
in the lean season favors continued expansion in rice consumption.

Rice imports rose in 2002 and are expected to continue to increase in
2003 and 2004 due to the civil unrest that has weakened the country's
food production base. Rice imports for the first 9 months of 2003 were
554,868 MT compared to 502,182 MT for the same period in 2002. Exports
fell in 2002 and are expected to continue to be down in 2003 and 2004
due to the unstable political situation. Exports for the first 9 months
in 2003 were down nearly 50 percent, from 2,187 MT compared to 4,158 MT
for the same period in 2002.

In 2002, Asian rice accounted for about 90 percent of Ivorian imports
due to its competitive price. India became the leading supplier of rice
to Cote d'Ivoire surpassing Thailand. Since 2002, the U.S. has made a
significant inroad into the market of 16-35 percent broken rice by
exporting 11,681 MT. In 2003, exports attained about 43,000 MT. In 2003,
U.S. sold about 43,000 MT milled rice under commercial sales and 9,648
MT under the monetization program of OICI (Opportunities
Industrialization Center -- Cote d'Ivoire).

In 2003/2004 planting period, the government launched its rice
development program of "RIZ POUR TOUS" (RICE FOR ALL). This is part of
the government's contingency plan to increase local rice production and
avert hunger during this crisis period.

Exchange Rate: U.S. \$1 = 555 F CFA on November 26, 2003.

  ------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **PSD Table**                                                              

  **Country**                                                                

  **Commodity**       **Rice,                                     (1000      
                      Milled**                                    HA)(1000   
                                                                  MT)        

                      2001       Revised    2002       Estimate   2003       Forecast

                      USDA       Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post
                      Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate
                      \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]

  **Market Year                  08/2001               08/2002               08/2003
  Begin**                                                                    

  Area Harvested      600        600        500        460        500        340

  Beginning Stocks    234        69         264        143        239        156

  Milled Production   580        580        450        390        450        280

  Rough Production    1055       1055       818        709        818        509

  MILLING RATE        5500       5500       5500       5500       5500       5500
  (.9999)                                                                    

  TOTAL Imports       575        618        700        806        700        850

  Jan-Dec Imports     700        641        650        718        650        750

  Jan-Dec Import U.S. 31         28         0          28         0          45

  TOTAL SUPPLY        1389       1267       1414       1339       1389       1286

  TOTAL Exports       0          4          0          3          0          1

  Jan-Dec Exports     0          5          0          5          0          1

  TOTAL Dom.          1125       1120       1175       1180       1195       1240
  Consumption                                                                

  Ending Stocks       264        143        239        156        194        45

  TOTAL DISTRIBUTION  1389       1267       1414       1339       1389       1286
  ------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

# Production

Post forecasts a fall in 2003/2004 production due to poor rainfall
distribution, lingering political instability and reduced plantings.
Rainfall in 2003 was poorly distributed. It started early in April, but
came to an abrupt halt in the latter part of June, during the growing
period. The ensuing drought caused much upland rice to whittle. In
lowland rice areas too, poor drainage due to blocked canals caused
flooding which impaired growth in many rice fields.

The unsettled political situation has made it impossible for many
farmers who fled the rice-producing areas in rebel-held territory,
especially in the west, to return. Similarly, the north of the country
now under rebel control, general anxiety and uncertainty have not also
permitted full-scale farming activities. In other parts of the country,
the political situation has caused shortage of farm workers because many
migrant workers were chased out or otherwise forced to return to their
country of origin. The hostile political atmosphere marked by parochial
interest has also made some landowners refuse to lease land to migrant
farmers for cultivation, contributing to the reduced planted area in
2003/2004.

Field travels in mid-November in the southern part of the producing area
indicated that crop harvest is in process, and interviews with farmers,
millers and traders show that the current crop will be lower than that
of 2002/2003. Crop harvesting is almost completed for upland rice but
still continues for lowland and irrigated rice. Travel to rice-producing
areas also indicated that many areas have been left uncultivated. Piles
of rice normally found dried along the main roads were conspicuously
absent and only a small amount was being dried in front of cottage
mills.

The 2003/2004 marketing year has been lackluster. The activities of
small cottage mills seemed considerably reduced due to insufficient
supply of paddy for milling. Paddy prices are high between 90-95 F
CFA/kg at farm gate and 100-105 F CFA/kg at cottage mills in villages
and towns depending on the distance from the farms. Milled rice varied
between 225 F CFA/kg and 250 F CFA/kg. Comparative prices in 2002/2003
marketing year before the advent of the political crisis were about
80-90 F CFA/kg at farm gate and 100-110 F CFA/kg at the mills. Milled
rice was sold 215-250 F CFA/kg at the mills.

## 

# Consumption

Rice consumption rose in 2003 and is expected to continue to increase in
2004 due to increasing population and the political crisis that has led
to upsurge in rural exodus to major cities. Despite the availability of
other food crops such as cassava, yams, plantain and cocoyam during the
harvesting period, the last trimester of 2003, the price of rice is
relatively cheap. In addition, the availability of these crops is only
seasonal and their price escalation in the lean season favors continued
expansion in rice consumption. Rice is readily available at relatively
stable and low price throughout the year, and also ideal for mass
consumption in this crisis period.

## Consumption Subcategory

In 2002/2003 marketing year, the proportion of imported rice to total
domestic consumption was over 50 percent and is expected to be over 60
percent during the 2003/2004 marketing year due to falling domestic
production. The slight recovery in rice consumption pattern towards high
quality rice observed in 2001 has slipped in 2002 and 2003 due to the
civil unrest with its attendant poverty. The 16-35 percent broken rice
accounted for 77 percent of consumption up from 67.6 percent in 2001.
The over 35 percent broken rice rose to 22 percent from 18 percent in
2001. The 0-15 percent broken rice and brown rice were small about 0.2
and 0.8 percent respectively.

In 2003, large imports of rice induced by the political crisis have
maintained rice retail prices at low levels. Up to July 2003, the retail
price on the urban markets of local rice has been between 288-306 F
CFA/kg; imported rice of 16-35 percent broken rice was 204-213 F CFA/kg;
Milled U.S. brown remained at 430-450 F CFA/kg; and deluxe rice between
490-507 F CFA/kg.

Retail Market Price (F CFA/kg) in 2002 in Abidjan

  ---------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
             Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec

  Local Rice 284   273   273   276   208   289   282   285   282   283   287   285

  Imported   223   208   203   201   200   205   206   207   210   206   204   211
  Rice\*                                                                       

  Deluxe     581   540   503   503   500   498   494   505   500   503   494   483
  Rice                                                                         
  ---------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

\* Imported Rice for mass consumption

Source: Institut National de la Statistique (INS)

## 

Retail Market Price (F CFA/kg) in 2003 in Abidjan

  ------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
                Jan      Feb      Mar      Apr      May      Jun      Jul

  Local Rice    288      292      294      289      298      304      306

  Imported Rice 215      210      213      212      204      210      208

  Deluxe Rice   491      493      490      496      494      507      501
  ------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------

Source: INS

# Trade

Rice imports rose in 2002 and are expected to continue to increase in
2003 and 2004 due to the civil unrest that has weakened the country's
food production base. Rice imports for the first 9 months of 2003 were
554,868 MT compared to 502,182 MT for the same period in 2002.

Exports fell in 2002 and are expected to continue to be down in 2003 and
2004 due to the unstable political situation. Rice exports in 2002 were
4,803 MT and mainly re-export, comprising brown rice (1,946 MT) mostly
to Liberia (1,903 MT); 16-35 percent broken rice (2,606 MT) mostly to
Ghana (1,694 MT) and Niger (751 MT); and over 35 percent broken rice
(250 MT) all to Liberia. Exports for the first 9 months in 2003 were
2,187 MT compared to 4,158 MT for the same period in 2002.

Types of Imported Rice (MT) in Jan-Sept, 2002 and 2003.

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
                          2002                    2003

  Brown Rice              18,717                  4,871

  0-15% brokens           2,080                   1,539

  16-35% brokens          380855                  429,047

  Over 35% brokens\*      100,530                 119,411

  Total                   502,182                 554,868
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

\* A larger proportion is 100 percent broken rice.

Source: Statistiques du Commerce Exterieur de la Cote d'Ivoire.

Origin of Rice Imports (MT), Jan-Sept.

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
                          2002                    2003

  U.S.                    13,525                  47,702

  China                   42,491                  115,512

  Pakistan                5,208                   1,124

  Vietnam                 3,986                   81,687

  Thailand                134,790                 154,004

  Taiwan                  22,681                  0

  Egypt                   225                     5,501

  Burma                   102,031                 18,567

  India                   176,114                 128,652

  Others                  1,131                   2,119

  Total                   502,182                 554,868
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

According to the Port of Abidjan statistics, 925,517 MT of rice
transited the Port Of Abidjan in 2002 and 560,811 MT for the first nine
months of 2003.

Destination of Rice (MT) transiting the Port of Abidjan in 2001 and
2002.

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
                          2001                    2002

  Cote d'Ivoire           640,599                 743,559

  Burkina Faso            127,499                 110,506

  Mali                    39,338                  68,394

  Niger                   0                       1,002

  Others                  1,504                   2,383

  Total                   808,940                 925,844
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

Source: Port Autonome d'Abidjan (PAA)

There was a difference in the Customs statistics and Port statistics for
the 2002 Cote d'Ivoire's rice imports due to administrative bottlenecks
in Customs' goods clearance. Post used Customs statistics for its trade
estimate because they represent goods that have really entered the
country.

Destination of Rice (MT) transiting the Port of Abidjan in 2002 and
2003.

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
                          Jan-Sept 2002           Jan-Sept 2003

  Cote d'Ivoire           539,604                 516,416

  Burkina Faso            108,452                 8,819

  Mali                    61,385                  35,576

  Niger                   1,002                   0

  Others                  2,383                   0

  Total                   712,826                 560,811
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

Source: PAA

## 

## 

## Trade Subcategory

In 2002, Asian rice accounted for about 90 percent of Ivorian imports
due to its competitive price. India became the leading supplier of rice
to Cote d'Ivoire surpassing Thailand. India's sales only comprised 16-35
percent broken rice. Thailand maintains its grip on the markets for the
0-15 percent broken rice and the over 35 percent broken rice. The U.S.
remains the only source for brown rice and also exports small quantities
of deluxe rice, 0-15 percent broken rice. Since 2002, it has made a
significant step in the market of 16-35 percent broken rice by exporting
11,681 MT, and in 2003, exports attained about 43,000 MT.

In 2003, U.S. sold about 43,000 MT milled rice under commercial sales
and 9,648 MT under the monetization program of OICI (Opportunities
Industrialization Center -- Cote d'Ivoire). In 2002, sales of 11,657 MT
of brown rice and about 12,000 MT milled rice were all under commercial
sales. In 2004, OICI has received approval for 12,000 MT of brown rice
for its monetization program.

  --------------------- -------------- --------------------- --------------
  **Import Trade                                             
  Matrix**                                                   

  **Country**                                                

  **Commodity**         Rice, Milled                         

  Time Period           Jan-Dec        Units:                MT

  Imports for:          2001                                 **2002**

  U.S.                  27793          U.S.                  28235

  Others                               Others                

  China                 162856         China                 59490

  Thailand              165013         Thailand              191058

  Pakistan              88842          Pakistan              5313

  India                 16555          India                 259641

  Vietnam               87315          Vietnam               12824

  Burma                 61021          Burma                 131409

  Taiwan                8153           Taiwan                26681

  Egypt                 22909          Egypt                 2225

                                                             

                                                             

  Total for Others      612664                               688641

  Others not Listed     143                                  1086

  Grand Total           640600                               717962
  --------------------- -------------- --------------------- --------------

  --------------------- -------------- --------------------- --------------
  **Export Trade                                             
  Matrix**                                                   

  **Country**                                                

  **Commodity**         Rice, Milled                         

  Time Period           Jan-Dec        Units:                MT

  Exports for:          2001                                 **2002**

  U.S.                                 U.S.                  

  Others                               Others                

  Liberia               3636           Liberia               2190

  Ghana                 809            Ghana                 1734

  Mali                  80             Mali                  120

                                       Niger                 754

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

  Total for Others      4525                                 4798

  Others not Listed     82                                   5

  Grand Total           4607                                 4803
  --------------------- -------------- --------------------- --------------

# Stocks

Stocks level increased in 2002/2003 due to the rise in imports. Stocks
level is expected to fall in 2003/2004 due to increased consumption and
the drop in local production.

# Policy

## 

In 2003/2004 planting season, the government launched its rice
development program of "RIZ POUR TOUS" ( RICE FOR ALL). This is part of
the government's contingency plan to increase local rice production and
avert hunger during this crisis period. The program is expected to
produce about 26,000 MT of paddy rice and recover about 600 MT of seeds
for the 2004/2005 planting. The total cost of the program is estimated
at 4.256 billion F CFA to be financed by both the government of Cote
d'Ivoire and Japan.

# Marketing

The number of legitimate rice importers increased from 15 in 2001 to 17
in 2002. However, only 3 importers accounted for 60 percent of total
imports. For the first half of 2003, the number of importers was only 9,
and only one importer accounted for about 75 percent of the total rice
imports. This is because most of the exporters were hesitant due to the
political situation.

Small cottage mills continue to ensure the processing of the entire
local paddy. The only operating large mill, UNIRIZ, processes only
imported brown rice from the U.S. It also polishes a small amount of
local rice purchased from the cottage mills. In 2002/2003, it processed
15,607 MT of brown rice and polished 540 MT of local rice. Brown rice is
processed and packaged under the brand name "Uncle Jo".