Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 12/29/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** GM6001

GM6001

**Germany**

**Fresh Deciduous Fruit**

**Semi-Annual**

**2006**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)William W. Westman

U.S. Embassy, Berlin

**Prepared by:**

Sabine M Lieberz

**Report Highlights:**

FAS/Berlin raises the estimate for German commercial apple production in
MY 2005/06 (harvest 2005) from 915,000 to 960,000 MT, while the
non-commercial production is reduced from 500,000 to 450,000 MT. The
production estimate for pears is left unchanged.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Semi-Annual Report

Berlin \[GM1\]

\[GM\]

Executive Summary

This report contains changes to the PSD for apples and pears submitted
in our last Fresh Deciduous Fruit annual report (GM5034). The trade
tables are left unchanged for the full marketing year MY 2004/05.
However, this report gives trade data for the first three months of MY
2005/06.

Official figures for German commercial apple and pear production for the
2005 harvest are expected to be released by the end of January 2006.
Based on stock figures and industry information, FAS/Berlin is raising
the estimate for commercial apple production in MY 2005/06 (harvest
2005) from 915,000 MT to 960,000 MT. The production estimate for pears
is left unchanged at 43,000 MT.

For apples, this is a five percent increase compared to the production
of 915,000 MT in MY 2004/05. Pear production is 30 percent below the MY
2004/05 harvest.

# Apples

Based on stock figures and industry information, FAS/Berlin raises the
estimate for commercial apple production in MY 2005/06 (harvest 2005) to
960,000 MT. This compares to our previous estimate of 915,000 MT and
last year's production of 945,000 MT. The increase is largely due to a
higher than expected crop in the Niederelbe region[^1]. Above average
growing conditions, particularly relating to moisture and temperature in
September and October, resulted in larger fruit diameters. This in turn
produced heavier fruits[^2].

German official sources do not issue production estimates for
non-commercial apple production, because the last tree census for
non-commercial apple trees dates from the 1960s. Therefore, FAS/Berlin
data for non-commercial apple production are very rough estimates.
Non-commercial apple production includes apples from trees in meadows
and house gardens and is mostly used for processing. For MY 2005/2006,
non-commercial apple production is estimated at about 450,000 MT. This
is ten percent less than our previous estimate and 50 percent below last
year's crop. The large year-on-year drop is attributed to the bi-annual
growing pattern of non commercial orchards and infestation by the winter
(*operophtera brumata*) and codling moths (*cydia pomonella/laspeyresia
pomonella*).

## Stocks

At this time of the year, commercial stock figures provide a better
picture about market prospects than harvest figures alone. As of
November 1, 2005, producer organizations held one percent smaller stocks
than at the same time the previous year. This occurred despite the fact
that until the end of October producer organizations marketed about 25
percent more apples than in the previous season. The results indicate
that the previous crop assessments were underestimated.

The "*Jonagold"* variety and related varieties show a seven percent
increase compared to last year and make up about 35 percent of total. In
contrast, stocks of the second largest variety, "*Elstar*," show a 17
percent decrease compared to last year, but still above the long-term
average. For details please see table 1.

Table 1: Commercial Apple Stocks held by Producer Organizations on
November 1, by Year, Variety and Region in MT

+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
|             | 2      | 20    | 200  | 200  | 2004 | 2005 | Ch   |
|             | 000/01 | 01/02 | 2/03 | 3/04 | /05r | /06p | ange |
|             |        |       |      |      |      |      | in   |
|             |        |       |      |      |      |      | per  |
|             |        |       |      |      |      |      | cent |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| # T         | 3      | 35    | 280  | 333  | 367  | 364  | -1%  |
| otal Apples | 92,500 | 2,800 | ,220 | ,668 | ,479 | ,845 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Thereof     |        |       |      |      |      |      |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Jonagold\*  | 1      | 10    | 90   | 115  | 121  | 130  | 7%   |
|             | 20,800 | 9,200 | ,086 | ,167 | ,425 | ,244 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Elstar      | 60,200 | 5     | 49   | 46   | 74   | 61   | -17% |
|             |        | 6,300 | ,676 | ,869 | ,364 | ,360 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Idared      | 41,100 | 3     | 32   | 36   | 35   | 28   | -19% |
|             |        | 1,900 | ,010 | ,614 | ,239 | ,519 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Golden      | 31,800 | 2     | 32   | 32   | 30   | 24   | -21% |
| Delicious   |        | 9,100 | ,538 | ,884 | ,577 | ,274 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Gala        | 10,300 | 9,900 | 11   | 14   | 14   | 18   | 33%  |
|             |        |       | ,794 | ,483 | ,047 | ,751 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Braeburn    | 8,500  | 9,200 | 6    | 12   | 17   | 17   | 3%   |
|             |        |       | ,945 | ,407 | ,064 | ,523 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Boskoop     | 31,800 | 2     | 13   | 12   | 16   | 15   | -6%  |
|             |        | 3,200 | ,697 | ,619 | ,537 | ,573 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Gloster     | 30,900 | 2     | 15   | 23   | 17   | 15   | -14% |
|             |        | 7,900 | ,111 | ,421 | ,818 | ,380 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Pinova      | 2,300  | 2,600 | 3    | 4    | 7    | 9    | 20%  |
|             |        |       | ,157 | ,467 | ,948 | ,543 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Cox Orange  | 13,700 | 1     | 4    | 5    | 6    | 8    | 26%  |
|             |        | 6,300 | ,232 | ,784 | ,435 | ,103 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Other       | 41,100 | 3     | 20   | 28   | 26   | 35   | 37%  |
|             |        | 7,200 | ,974 | ,953 | ,025 | ,575 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
|             |        |       |      |      |      |      |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| **By        |        |       |      |      |      |      |      |
| region**:   |        |       |      |      |      |      |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| #           | 1      | 16    | 92   | 130  | 145  | 158  | 9%   |
| ##### North | 70,800 | 6,500 | ,866 | ,202 | ,761 | ,773 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| South       | 1      | 9     | 68   | 100  | 86   | 84   | -2%  |
|             | 07,500 | 0,300 | ,989 | ,721 | ,622 | ,929 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| East        | 98,800 | 7     | 11   | 11   | 19   | 16   | -13% |
|             |        | 8,200 | ,757 | ,649 | ,093 | ,561 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+
| Center-West | 15,400 | 1     | 106  | 91   | 116  | 104  | -10% |
|             |        | 7,700 | ,608 | ,096 | ,003 | ,582 |      |
+-------------+--------+-------+------+------+------+------+------+

R = revised

P = provisional

\* = Jonagold and similar varieties

Source: Central Market and Price Reporting Agency (ZMP)

# Prices

Apple prices were very low at the beginning of the season because large
carry-over of apples from the previous harvest as well as imports from
the Southern hemisphere disturbed in the market. According to ZMP,
average retail prices for apples in August, September, and October were
19, 14, and 7 percent lower compared to the low prices of 2004. The
combination of decreased supplies of apples from non-commercial backyard
production and lower retail prices, resulted in a 10.6 percent increase
in consumer purchases from August through October 2005.

# Intervention

The EU intervention price for apples is fixed at 8.81 Euro (US\$
10.43[^3]) per 100 kg[^4]. Must apple[^5] prices have been as high as 12
Euro (US\$ 14.20) per 100 kg this fall as a result of the low
non-commercial apple crop. Therefore, it is unlikely that intervention
will be used this year. Apples that could have gone into intervention
under different circumstances will be redirected to juice production.

# Pears

Commercial pear production in MY 2005/06 is estimated at 43,000 MT
compared to 61,000 MT in MY 2004/05. These figures originate not from
the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Consumer
Protection, (BMELV) but from the German Central Market- and Price
Reporting Agency (ZMP). According to industry sources, the official
final German pear production numbers from BMELV have been largely
overestimated since CY 2002. Therefore FAS/Berlin decided to go with the
widely accepted ZMP figures.

Commercial pear stocks amounted to about 4,600 MT on November 1, 2005,
compared to 7,627 MT the year before.

# Part II: Statistical tables

![](media/image2.wmf)

## Table 2 : PSD for fresh apples (in ha, 1000 trees, MT)

## Table 3 : German imports of apples for the first quarter of the MY, by year

  ------------- ------------- ---------- ------- ------------- ---------- ------- ------------- ---------- -------
  IMPORT                      July/Sep                         July/Sep                         July/Sep   
                              2003                             2004                             2005       

                MT            1000-\$    \$/MT   MT            1000-\$    \$/MT   MT            1000-\$    \$/MT

                                                                                                           

  U.S.A.        **15**        17         1096    180           194        1080    **0**         0          0

  ITALY         **58,386**    40,736     698     **34,859**    35,164     1009    57,529        40,233     699

  NEW ZEALAND   **34,259**    38,021     1110    **48,334**    54,275     1123    **50,894**    51,974     1021

  NETHERLANDS   **21,412**    12,575     587     **22,246**    12,970     583     **25,493**    8,117      318

  CHILE         **11,018**    9,680      879     **19,850**    18,870     951     **16,465**    12,185     740

  FRANCE        **8,950**     7,183      803     **11,969**    11,942     998     **14,657**    6,248      426

  ARGENTINA     **7,114**     5,023      706     **7,988**     7,151      895     **11,479**    8,035      700

  AUSTRIA       **4,397**     1,887      429     **1,860**     1,714      921     **6,470**     2,964      458

  BRAZIL        **3,349**     3,165      945     **13,458**    11,566     859     **5,744**     4,238      738

  BELGIUM       **9,599**     8,738      910     **8,246**     8,134      986     **5,359**     2,464      460

  SOUTH AFRICA  **12,260**    9,379      765     **19,016**    21,266     1118    **5,113**     4,335      848

  GREECE        **-**         \-         \-      **20**        22         1111    **2,855**     609        213

  POLAND        **2,765**     457        165     **4,192**     789        188     **2,509**     439        175

  CZECH         **1,892**     303        160     **4,048**     429        106     **914**       122        134
  REPUBLIC                                                                                                 

  CHINA         **226**       153        679     **1,727**     1,869      1082    **507**       466        920

  Other         **2,341**                        **2,520**                        **1,479**                

  INTRA EU-15   **104,235**   72,166     692     **80,458**    71,072     883     **112,677**   60,894     540

  NMS[^6]       **4,664**     765        164     **8,697**     1,313      151     **3,570**     585        164

  EXTRA EU-25   **69,069**    65,870     954     **111,178**   115,649    1040    **91,221**    81,813     897

  WORLD         **177,968**   138,801    780     **200,333**   188,034    939     **207,467**   143,292    691
  ------------- ------------- ---------- ------- ------------- ---------- ------- ------------- ---------- -------

Source: German Federal Office of Statistics, Wiesbaden

## Table 4: German exports of fresh apples for the first quarter of the MY, by year

  ------------- ------------ ---------- ------- ------------ ---------- ------- ------------ ---------- -------
  EXPORT                     July/Sep                        July/Sep                        July/Sep   
                             2003                            2004                            2005       

                MT           1000-\$    \$/MT   MT           1000-\$    \$/MT   MT           1000-\$    \$/MT

                                                                                                        

  NETHERLANDS   **6,305**    6,238      989     **5,754**    5,095      885     **3,781**    3,374      892

  FRANCE        **1,461**    1,566      1072    **3,149**    3,680      1168    **3,391**    3,608      1064

  UNITED        **1,188**    1,746      1470    **2,615**    4,058      1552    **3,225**    3,946      1223
  KINGDOM                                                                                               

  DENMARK       **647**      508        784     **1,568**    1,616      1030    **2,146**    1,558      726

  AUSTRIA       **1,009**    1,062      1052    **1,745**    1,903      1091    **1,705**    1,481      869

  CZECH         **70**       30         431     **202**      172        852     **1,633**    706        432
  REPUBLIC                                                                                              

  SWEDEN        **668**      526        788     **1,302**    1,545      1187    **1,201**    1,216      1013

  LITHUANIA     **25**       14         537     **198**      85         427     **916**      367        401

  ITALY         **1,171**    966        825     **2,009**    2,241      1115    **889**      767        863

  BELGIUM       **142**      157        1103    **466**      627        1347    **691**      775        1121

  FINLAND       **585**      506        865     **778**      788        1013    **643**      596        926

  SPAIN         **129**      184        1428    **734**      727        990     **433**      410        947

  NORWAY        **69**       62         903     **27**       33         1222    **420**      461        1098

  RUSSIA        **94**       50         531     **352**      172        487     **417**      223        534

  OTHER         **1,220**                       **2,083**                       **2,366**               

  INTRA EU-15   **14,132**   14,386     1018    **21,494**   24,141     1123    **19,011**   18,743     986

  NMS           **179**      91         510     **673**      476        708     **3,423**    1,490      435

  EXTRA EU-25   **467**      264        566     **815**      551        676     **1,423**    1,006      707

  WORLD         **14,783**   14,744     997     **22,982**   25,168     1095    **23,857**   21,239     890
  ------------- ------------ ---------- ------- ------------ ---------- ------- ------------ ---------- -------

Source: German Federal Office of Statistics, Wiesbaden

## 

## Table 5: PSD for fresh pears (in ha, trees, MT)

![](media/image3.wmf)

##  

## Table 6: German imports of fresh pears for the first quarter of the MY, by year

  ------------- ------------ ---------- ------- ------------ ---------- ------- ------------ ---------- -------
  IMPORT                     July/Sep                        July/Sep                        July/Sep   
                             2003                            2004                            2005       

                MT           1000-\$    \$/MT   MT           1000-\$    \$/MT   MT           1000-\$    \$/MT

                                                                                                        

  U.S.A.        **1**        2          2260    **506**      706        1396    **21**       10         459

  SPAIN         **10,342**   7,510      726     **8,185**    6,768      827     **7,763**    4,682      603

  ITALY         **7,569**    7,082      936     **7,815**    7,335      939     **7,441**    6,904      928

  SOUTH AFRICA  **2,596**    2,826      1089    **11,686**   14,722     1260    **4,920**    5,093      1035

  ARGENTINA     **2,553**    2,351      921     **2,724**    2,732      1003    **4,584**    3,745      817

  CHILE         **2,775**    2,229      803     **2,874**    2,568      894     **3,223**    2,489      772

  FRANCE        **3,365**    2,404      714     **3,136**    2,661      849     **2,112**    1,379      653

  BELGIUM       **724**      852        1178    **610**      381        625     **572**      435        761

  NETHERLANDS   **1,202**    1,128      938     **904**      749        829     **520**      521        1001

  TURKEY        **176**      150        853     **140**      174        1248    **159**      153        967

  OTHER         **263**                         **179**                         **348**                 

  INTRA EU-15   **23,202**   18,976     818     **20,651**   17,894     867     **18,586**   14,063     757

  NMS           **-**        \-         \-      **12**       9          710     **2**        2          1418

  EXTRA EU-25   **8,364**    7,737      925     **18,096**   21,064     1164    **13,076**   11,668     892

  WORLD         **31,566**   26,713     846     **38,759**   38,967     1005    **31,663**   25,734     813
  ------------- ------------ ---------- ------- ------------ ---------- ------- ------------ ---------- -------

Source: German Federal Office of Statistics, Wiesbaden

## Table 7 : German exports of fresh pears for the first quarter of the MY, by year

  ------------- ----------- ---------- ------- ----------- ---------- ------- ----------- ---------- -------
  EXPORT                    July/Sep                       July/Sep                       July/Sep   
                            2003                           2004                           2005       

                MT          1000-\$    \$/MT   MT          1000-\$    \$/MT   MT          1000-\$    \$/MT

                                                                                                     

  NETHERLANDS   **187**     170        910     **633**     584        923     **816**     615        754

  PORTUGAL      **90**      83         922     **75**      71         952     **615**     339        551

  AUSTRIA       **285**     287        1008    **436**     519        1189    **586**     613        1048

  FRANCE        **123**     142        1147    **255**     351        1380    **493**     499        1012

  UNITED        **100**     141        1406    **325**     433        1332    **357**     331        926
  KINGDOM                                                                                            

  SWEDEN        **-**       \-         \-      **257**     287        1119    **344**     293        854

  ITALY         **203**     234        1149    **339**     425        1254    **312**     311        997

  DENMARK       **217**     200        920     **269**     258        959     **201**     171        852

  BELGIUM       **140**     38         274     **71**      134        1890    **162**     113        697

  CZECH         **-**       \-         \-      **14**      17         1253    **142**     97         681
  REPUBLIC                                                                                           

  OTHER         **1,047**                      2,508                          **3,717**              

  INTRA EU-15   **1,582**   1,522      962     **3,051**   3,467      1137    **4,176**   3,602      863

  NMS           **7**       7          1049    **101**     88         876     **237**     156        661

  EXTRA EU-25   **19**      16         845     **49**      35         719     **121**     97         801

  WORLD         **1,607**   1,544      961     **3,201**   3,591      1122    **4,534**   3,856      850
  ------------- ----------- ---------- ------- ----------- ---------- ------- ----------- ---------- -------

Source: German Federal Office of Statistics, Wiesbaden

Related reports:

  ---------- ------------ -----------------------------------------------
  Report     Date         Title
  Number                  

  GM3011     03/17/2003   EU support for the fruit and vegetable sector
                          in Germany

  GM3025     08/15/2003   Fruit Tree Census

  GM5002     01/07/2005   Product Brief Fresh Fruits

  GM5034     09/07/2005   Fresh Deciduous Fruit Annual
  ---------- ------------ -----------------------------------------------

[^1]: The Niederelbe region is located West of Hamburg in Northern
    Germany

[^2]: An increase of 1 mm in fruit diameters translates into a fruit
    weight increase of four percent.

[^3]: Exchange rate as of Dec 29, 2005: 1 Euro = US\$ 1.1837, US\$ 1 =
    08.448 Euro

[^4]: Annex V of EU regulation 2200/96

[^5]: Must apples = apples destined for juice production

[^6]: NMS = New EU member states