FECN11 CWIS 171800

THIRTY DAY FORECAST FOR THE GREAT LAKES FOR MID-JANUARY TO MID-FEBRUARY
ISSUED JOINTLY BY THE CANADIAN ICE SERVICE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AND THE
U.S. NATIONAL ICE CENTER OF THE UNITED STATES ON 17 JANUARY 2003.

## LAKE SUPERIOR

Above to well above normal temperatures prevailed over most of the last
2 weeks except below normal just before mid January. Ice conditions are
close to normal.

Forecast ice conditions from January 17^th^ to January 31^st^.

Below normal temperatures are expected for the last 2 weeks of January.
As a result ice is expected to develop a normal to rapid pace. Ice in
Thunder Bay will thicken quickly to reach the medium lake ice stage
early in the period. Most of Thunder Bay will become consolidated by the
last weekend of the month except for its south central section which
will remain mobile. New lake ice will develop and expand rapidly along
the northern and southern shores of the Lake and thicken to thin and
medium lake ice by the end of the month. Ice will become consolidated
around the Apostle Islands and in shallow bays along the southern shores
within the next few days. Ice will further develop in Whitefish Bay to
cover the entire Bay within a week while reaching the medium lake ice
stage. Most of Whitefish Bay will be consolidated before the end of
January. At that time a band of mostly thin lake ice will prevail along
the eastern shore of Lake Superior in and south of Michipicoten Bay.
Otherwise, at the end of the forecast period, Lake Superior will be open
water to ice free.

Forecast ice conditions from February 01^st^ to mid-February.

Near normal temperatures are forecast for the first half of February.
Ice will further develop and at mid-February the western half of the
Lake and will be covered by medium and thin lake ice. At that time thin
with some medium lake ice will prevail along the southeastern and
eastern shores of the Lake and north of Whitefish Bay. Ice will remain
consolidated in Whitefish Bay and in Thunder Bay during the period. At
mid-February the eastern central section of the lake will be open water.

## LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY

Generally above normal temperatures were reported over the first 2 weeks
of January except for below normal temperatures just before mid-month.
As a result little ice development occurred during that time. Ice
conditions are a few days behind normal.

Forecast ice conditions from January 17^th^ to January 31^st^.

Below normal temperatures will prevail over the next 2 weeks allowing
ice to develop at a normal to rapid pace. Ice in the North Channel will
expand and cover the entire channel early in the period and become
consolidated within a week. Ice in Saginaw Bay will thicken to mainly
medium with some thick lake ice and become consolidated by early next
week. The rest of St Mary's River will be consolidated early in the
period. Ice along the shore will further develop and at the end of the
period a 10 to 15 mile wide and of thin with some medium lake ice will
prevail along most of the shores and over most of Georgian Bay. At that
time the southwestern third of Georgian Bay will be mainly open water.
Medium lake ice will predominate in the northwestern tip of the lake
including the entrance to the Straits of Mackinac. Ice in the entrance
to the Straits of Mackinac will become consolidated by the last week of
the month.

Forecast ice conditions from February 01^st^ to mid-February.

Near normal temperatures are forecast for the first half of February.
Ice along the shore will expand and thicken reaching the medium and thin
lake ice stages by the end of the period. At that time Georgian Bay will
be all covered by medium lake ice except for looser and thinner ice
conditions prevailing over the southwestern third of the bay. Ice in the
northwestern section of Lake Huron will gradually expand eastward.
Saginaw Bay, the North Channel and the entrance to the Straits of
Mackinac will remain consolidated at mid-February.

## LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST. CLAIR

Generally near normal temperatures were reported over the forecast area
over the last 2 weeks. As a result ice developed at a near normal pace
during the period. Ice conditions are a few days ahead of normal.

Forecast ice conditions from January 17^th^ to January 31^st^.

Below normal temperatures are forecast over the next 2 weeks. The ice in
the Western Basin will thicken, and within a week, all of the Basin will
be covered by medium lake ice. Ice over Lake Erie will rapidly expand
and by early next week most of the lake will be covered by thin with
some medium lake ice. Coastal leads could occasionally develop where
winds blow offshore. The consolidated ice in Lake St Clair will rapidly
reach the medium lake ice stage. Occasional ice pressure could develop
at both ends of the lake with strong onshore winds.

Forecast ice conditions from February 01^st^ to mid-February.

The rest of Lake St Clair will become consolidated and ice over Lake
Erie will thicken to mainly medium lake ice during the first week of
February. Coastal leads will occasionally developed. Narrow bands of
fast ice will develop along parts of the shore of the lake and near
Buffalo during the period. At the end of the forecast period medium with
some thick lake ice will prevail over most of Lake Erie.

## LAKE ONTARIO

Generally near normal temperatures were reported over the first half of
January. Little ice development was reported over the last 2 weeks.

Forecast ice conditions from January 17^th^ to January 31^st^.

Ice will develop gradually over the northeastern section of Lake Ontario
and at the end of the period medium lake ice will predominate in the
extreme northeastern section. At that time new and thin lake ice will
cover the rest of the northeastern section of the lake. New lake ice
will occasionally develop along the southern and northern shores of the
lake but will melt as it drifts offshore. Otherwise at the end of the
period open water will prevail over the rest of the lake.

Forecast ice conditions from February 01^st^ to mid-February.

Medium lake ice will be predominant over the northeastern section of the
lake at mid-February. New and thin lake ice will persist along the
northern shore of the lake east of Cobourg. Otherwise open water
persisting over the rest of the lake during the period except for
occasional new lake ice formation along the shores.

## LAKE MICHIGAN

Temperatures have been generally above normal over the last 2 weeks
except below normal just before mid-January. Medium and thin lake ice is
present in Green Bay including Little and Big Bay De Noc, and in the
entrance to the Straits of Mackinac. New lake is present in the
approaches to the Straits of Mackinac and right along the shore of Lake
Michigan south of Milwaukee. Otherwise Lake Michigan is open water to
ice free.

Forecast ice conditions from January 17^th^ to January 31^st^.

Below normal temperatures is expected over the next 2 weeks. As a result
ice will development at a normal pace. The entire southern section of
Green Bay will become consolidated within the next few days. Ice over
the northern section of Green Bay will thicken to reach the medium lake
ice stage during the last week of January. New lake ice will develop in
Grand Traverse Bay within a week and thicken to thin lake ice before the
end of the month. Ice in the entrance to the Straits of Mackinac will
become consolidated during the last week of the period. The section of
Lake Michigan east of Beaver Island will be covered by medium lake ice
by the last week of the month. A narrow band of new and thin lake ice
will persist along most of the shore of the lake during the period.
Otherwise the lake will remain open water to ice free.

Forecast ice conditions from February 01^st^ to mid-February.

Near normal temperatures are expected over the forecast period. Little
change will occur over the northeastern section of Lake Michigan except
for a westward expansion of the ice to about 10 miles west of Beaver
Island. Ice in Green Bay will remain consolidated but will reach the
thick lake ice stage by mid-February. New and thin lake ice will persist
along the shores of the lake. At the end of the forecast period open
water will prevail over the rest of the lake.

**THE NEXT 30 DAY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ON 19 FEBRUARY 2003.**

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