Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 9/29/2003

**GAIN Report Number:** PL3034

PL3034

**Poland**

**Sugar**

**Semi-Annual**

**2003**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Wayne Molstad, Agricultural Counselor

#### U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Charles Rush, Agricultural Attaché/WFM

**Report Highlights:**

This year\'s weather conditions for sugar beet and sugar production were
better than estimated in our previous report. Sugar production has been
revised up 8.7 percent, to over 2 MMT and the sugar export forecast has
been increased to 0.4 MMT.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Semi-Annual Report

Warsaw \[PL1\]

\[PL\]

Table of Contents

[Executive Summary 3](#executive-summary)

[Sugar Beets PS&D Table 4](#sugar-beets-psd-table)

[Centrifugal Sugar PS&D Table 5](#centrifugal-sugar-psd-table)

# Executive Summary

This year's sugar beet acreage is about 300,000 hectares, almost the
same as in 2002. This year's dry weather did affect most crops, the dry
weather conditions early in the season promoted good sugar beet rooting
and consequently a good sugar beet yield. Generally, sugar beet crop
conditions are considered good.

The official government Main Statistics Office estimates this year's
sugar beet yield at 40 tons per hectare and a total crop of 12 MMT,
while the National Sugar Beet Producers Association estimate is more
optimistic at over 42 tons per hectare and a total crop of 12.8 MMT. We
consider the industry estimate to be more accurate as it is done
immediately prior to the harvest, on the other hand GUS estimates are
done earlier in the season.

This year's weather was favorable for high sugar concentration in beets.
The reported sugar content averages between 17.0 -- 17.5 percent, almost
one percentage point higher than last year's sugar content level. Such
crop conditions should result in total sugar production of more than 2.0
MMT of raw sugar (1.9 MMT white sugar) according to the National Sugar
Beet Producers Association.

We increased our sugar production estimate for the 2003/04 season 8.7
percent to 2.07 MMT. This estimated production level is significantly
higher than the 1.8 MMT raw sugar production quotas (A, for domestic use
and B, for export) agreed to by the EU and supported by the national
program. Based on the increased production, the sugar export forecast
has been increased to over 0.4 MMT of which about 3/4 will be exported
without subsidies.

This year's sugar beet processing will start somewhat earlier than last
year. In Wielkopolska province, a German owned sugar refinery will start
processing in late September. However, most of the refineries are
scheduled to start in early October.

To reduce the cost of sugar beet processing, companies prefer to close
some less efficient refineries and use their sugar production
allocations in more efficient refineries. At this point about 20
refineries will be eliminated from processing due to industry
restructuring. For example British Sugar Overseas will close 5
refineries (in Michałowie, Ciechanow, Guzow, Kętrzyn and Świecie, in
addition, it is likely that Peplin will be closed next year). The German
company Nordzucker will close 3 refineries (in Mełno, Szamotuły and
Wschowa), the German company Sudzucker will eliminate a refinery in
Włostowo and two more next year (in Garbow and Przeworsk) and the German
company Pfeifer und Langen will eliminate 3 refineries (in Gnieźno,
Witaszyce and Garbow) and possibly refineries in Zduny and Zbiersk. The
French company Saint Louis Sucre will eliminate 4 refineries (in
Ziębice, Pastuchow, Baborowo and in Wielun) and Krajowa Spółka Cukrowa
(Polish Sugar Company) will eliminate 3 refineries (in Rejowiec, Pruszcz
Gdański and possibly in Szczecin).

The Polish Sugar Company (created in August 1992, consists of 26 sugar
refineries with 600,000 tons of white sugar quota allocation and 37
percent of the market share) has some organizational and financial
problems as it operates too many refineries compared to its production
quotas, which result in higher processing costs. To date the company has
not decided which of the refineries will be eliminated for this
processing season.

The revised sugar beet and centrifugal sugar PSD tables follow. MY
2003/04 revisions were made due to the above described factors. A small
change was also made to the MY 2001/02 sugar beet, sugar production, and
sugar domestic use estimates based on the latest official revisions.

## Sugar Beets PS&D Table

## 

  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------
  PSD Table                                                                        

  Country        Poland                                                            

  Commodity      Sugar                                       (1000                 
                 Beets                                       HA)(1000              
                                                             MT)                   

                 2002       Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast   UOM

                 USDA       Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post       
                 Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate   
                 \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    

  Market Year               09/2001               09/2002               09/2003    MM/YYYY
  Begin                                                                            

  Area Planted   317        317        303        303        290        300        (1000 HA)

  Area Harvested 317        317        303        300        290        300        (1000 HA)

  Production     11364      11364      11700      13400      10500      12800      (1000 MT)

  TOTAL SUPPLY   11364      11364      11700      13400      10500      12800      (1000 MT)

  Utilization    11364      11364      11700      13400      10500      12800      (1000 MT)
  for Sugar                                                                        

  Utilizatn for  0          0          0          0          0          0          (1000 MT)
  Alcohol                                                                          

  TOTAL          11364      11364      11700      13400      10500      12800      (1000 MT)
  UTILIZATION                                                                      
  -------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------

##  

## Centrifugal Sugar PS&D Table

  --------------- ------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------
  PSD Table                                                                            

  Country         Poland                                                               

  Commodity       Centrifugal                                    (1000 MT)             
                  Sugar                                                                

                  2002          Revised    2003       Estimate   2004       Forecast   UOM

                  USDA Official Post       USDA       Post       USDA       Post       
                  \[Old\]       Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official   Estimate   
                                \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    

  Market Year                   09/2001               09/2002               09/2003    MM/YYYY
  Begin                                                                                

  Beginning       256           256        238        238        337        355        (1000 MT)
  Stocks                                                                               

  Beet Sugar      1674          1674       2250       2194       1900       2065       (1000 MT)
  Production                                                                           

  Cane Sugar      0             0          0          0          0          0          (1000 MT)
  Production                                                                           

  TOTAL Sugar     1674          1674       2250       2194       1900       2065       (1000 MT)
  Production                                                                           

  Raw Imports     13            13         0          0          0          0          (1000 MT)

  Refined         84            84         85         85         85         55         (1000 MT)
  Imp.(Raw Val)                                                                        

  TOTAL Imports   97            97         85         85         85         55         (1000 MT)

  TOTAL SUPPLY    2027          2027       2573       2517       2322       2475       (1000 MT)

  Raw Exports     0             0          0          0          0          0          (1000 MT)

  Refined         61            61         500        434        350        435        (1000 MT)
  Exp.(Raw Val)                                                                        

  TOTAL EXPORTS   61            61         500        434        350        435        (1000 MT)

  Human Dom.      1712          1712       1720       1712       1720       1720       (1000 MT)
  Consumption                                                                          

  Other           16            16         16         16         16         16         (1000 MT)
  Disappearance                                                                        

  Total           1728          1728       1736       1728       1736       1736       (1000 MT)
  Disappearance                                                                        

  Ending Stocks   238           238        337        355        236        304        (1000 MT)

  TOTAL           2027          2027       2573       2517       2322       2475       (1000 MT)
  DISTRIBUTION                                                                         
  --------------- ------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------

##