### **Session No. 12**

**Session Title: Emerging Technologies**

**Time:** Three Hours

**Objectives:**

At the conclusion of this session, students should be able to:

> 12.1 Identify and explain the impact of new information exchange
> technologies
>
> 12.2 Explore the application of innovative distance learning
> methodologies and technologies and their impact on emergency
> management
>
> 12.3 Identify examples of digital libraries and how this innovative
> information access tool affects emergency management
>
> 12.4 Explain the concept of computer artificial intelligence (expert
> systems) and how it is making the systems smarter
>
> 12.5 Discuss systems life cycles
>
> 12.6 Discuss how the emergency manager should protect the security of
> the technology and information

**Scope:** Technology applications in emergency management are
constantly changing. New developments including communications,
information access, training, modeling, and artificial intelligence will
be highlighted during this session. Software innovations, along with
more powerful personal computers, will continue to enable emergency
managers to use new technologies never before considered possible.

**References:**

**Instructor**

Alter, Steven. *Information Systems: A Management Perspective.* Menlo
Park, CA: The Benjamin/Cummings Publishing Company. 1996. Pp. 501 --
537.

Borbinha, Jose L. B. "Networked Digital Libraries," *Microcomputers for
Information Management: Global Internetworking for Libraries,* 13 (3-4),
195 -- 216 (1996).

Keller, A. Z., E.L. Coles and R. Heal. "Experiences Gained from the
First Internet Disaster Conference," *Disaster Prevention and
Management: An International Journal.* Pp. 31 -- 33, Vol. 5, No. 5,
1996. See http://www.mcb.co.uk/confhome.htm.

Stanley, Ellis M., Sr. and William L. Waugh, Jr. "Emergency Managers for
the New Millennium," *Handbook of Crisis and Emergency Management.*
Farazmand. New York: Marcel Dekker, 1999.

Slap, Albert J., Daniel Hillman, and David Moore. "Expert Systems in
Emergency Response," The ASPEP Journal, 1998. (Pp. 93-98).

**Student**

Alter, Steven. *Information Systems: A Management Perspective.* Menlo
Park, CA: The Benjamin/Cummings Publishing Company. 1996. (Pp.501 --
537).

Borbinha, Jose L. B. "Networked Digital Libraries," *Microcomputers for
Information Management: Global Internetworking for Libraries* 13 (3-4),
195 -- 216 (1996).

Institute of Emergency Administration and Planning (EADP) University of
North Texas. "Emergency Management Tutorial." 1997.

Keller, A. Z., E.L. Coles and R. Heal. "Experiences Gained from the
First Internet Disaster Conference," *Disaster Prevention and
Management: An International Journal.* Pp. 31 -- 33, Vol. 5, No. 5,
1996. See http://www.mcb.co.uk/confhome.htm. A copy of this article is
in Readings: 12-Keller---a Word document.

Stanley, Ellis M., Sr. and William L. Waugh, Jr. "Emergency Managers for
the New Millennium," *Handbook of Crisis and Emergency Management.*
Farazmand, New York: Marcel Dekker, 1999.

> **References**

Beroggi, Giampiero E.G., Laurie Waisel, and William A. Wallace. "The
Role of Virtual Reality Technology in Emergency Management." Pp. 212-217
in *International Emergency Management and Engineering Conference:
Bridging the Gap Between Theory and Practice: Research and
Applications.* James D. Sullivan and Suleyman Tufekci (eds.). Dallas,
TX: TIEMES. 1994.

Borbinha, Jose Luis B., and Jose Carlos M. Delgado. "Networked Digital
Libraries," *Microcomputers for Information Management: Global
Internetworking for Libraries* 13(3-4), 195-216 (1996).

Bush, V. (1945) "As We May Think." *The Atlantic Monthly.* July 1945.
Available at

http://www2.theatlantic.com/atlantic/atlweb/flashblks/computer/bushf.htm.

Butler, D. "Information Systems and Knowledge Transfer. Prospects for
Better Understanding, Opportunities for Increased Hazard Mitigation,"
unpublished paper. Natural Hazard Research and Application Information
Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO.

Elib. (1996). Elib project details. Available at
http://ukoln.ac.uk/elib/projects.html.

Elsevier Science. (1996). TULIP Final Report. Elsevier Science Edition.
Available at

http://www.elsevier.nl/locate/tulip. This project was the work of nine
universities with the goal of testing systems for networked delivery and
use of scanned journals.

Fischer, Henry W. III. "The Role of the New Information Technologies in
Emergency Mitigation, Planning Response and Recovery." *Disaster
Prevention and Management.* Vol. 7 Number 1. London: MCB University
Press. 1998.

Gividen, J. Richard, and Karen Mantyla. *Distance Learning: A Step by
Step Guide for Trainers.* Alexandria: American Society for Training and
Development, 1997.

Keller, A.K., E.L. Coles and R. Heal. "Experiences Gained from the First
Internet Disaster Conference." *Disaster Prevention and Management: An
International Journal.* Vol. 5, Number 5, 1996.

Lynch, Clifford, and Hector Garcia-Molina. "Interoperability, Scaling,
and the Digital Laboratories Research Agenda." Report on the Information
Infrastructure Technology and Applications (IITA) Digital Libraries
Workshop, Reston, VA. May 18-19, 1995. Available on line at
http://www-diglib.stanford.edu/diglib/pub/reports/iita-dlw.

Rubin, Claire B. "What Hazards and Disasters are Likely in the 21st
Century -- or Sooner?" Natural Hazards Research Working Paper #99.
Boulder, CO: Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information
Center. See: http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/wp/wp99.html.

Sullivan, James D., Jean Luc Wybo, and Laurent Buisson, Editors. The
International Emergency Management and Engineering Conference 1995 --
Globalization of Emergency Management and Engineering: National and
International Issues Concerning Research and Applications. P. 581 1995.

**Remarks:**

In discussing how to meet national needs for the exchange of information
in the coming decade, the focus is shifting from "networks" to
"information infrastructure." This means that the emergency management
system will depend on but involve much more than networks. An
information infrastructure is a framework in which communications
networks support higher-level services for human communication and
access to information. Such an infrastructure has an architectural
aspect, a structure and design, that is manifested in standard
interfaces and in standard objects (voice, video, files, e-mail, and so
on) transmitted in some manner to others on the network. It specifically
moves beyond the simple transfer of data to encompass issues relevant to
higher-level computer applications. We see new applications on the
Internet that take advantage of the technology and provide information,
research, and education.

**12.1 Information Exchange**

The Internet is providing the emergency management community with an
extensive choice of information services. Simple search capabilities
allow the user to find a list of resources relating to emergency
management. The Internet is also providing innovative examples of
"information exchange."

***Emergency Preparedness Information Exchange (EPIX)***

The Emergency Preparedness Information Exchange (EPIX) allows the user
to exchange ideas and information on emergency management and disasters.
The site identifies new technologies that are a part of the
communications network for emergency managers. The site was developed by
the Centre for Policy Research on Science and Technology at Simon Fraser
University, Vancouver, Canada. See the EPIX site for a description of
this innovative information exchange service.
http://hoshi.cic.sfu.ca/epix.

***Instructor Note:** A copy of the EPIX html file is available in the
HTML file folder included with the instructor materials. To see the
file, open Microsoft Explorer and find the HTML File Folder in the
Technology folder. Click on EPIX.*

For emergency managers, EPIX is an excellent means of finding data and
resources associated with emergency management on the Internet.

***Stonefly Project***

(The description of StoneFly was provided by NASA.)

The idea for the StoneFly Project was first conceived in 1994 by three
communications technicians working for NASA. All three had an interest
and a background in emergency communications. It was evident to these
three communications professionals that there was no one individual
information homepage for emergency preparedness officials/workers to go
and find the most current information regarding weather, earthquakes,
volcanic eruptions and disaster relief efforts. There were quite a few
homepages out there that dealt with individual specific subjects, but no
one homepage where it could all be brought together into one location
for easy access.

Since September of 1996, the StoneFly homepage has been on-line to try
and help bridge that gap and gather real-time (or as close as possible)
information so emergency preparedness officials/workers only had to go
to one homepage and then find what information they were looking for.
The StoneFly Project provides a free monthly newsletter for people all
over the world interested in emergency preparedness. The StoneFly staff
constantly updates the homepage, and it works with new communication
technology that will eventually link all emergency preparedness
personnel together via video teleconferencing using just their
computers. Finally, the project (knowing emergency preparedness budgets
are typically insufficient) attempts to discover existing communications
systems, at the lowest possible costs, and passes that information on to
interested parties in hopes it will help them do their jobs more
efficiently and economically. The StoneFly Project homepage can be found
at:

http://stonefly.arc.nasa.gov.

***Television Information Access Application***

Simply providing access to information such as databases is one means of
providing information to users. A different approach illustrated by
television broadcast stations allows the users to customize the request
for information such as real-time local weather data. In another
development television broadcast stations are attempting to reach
viewers by means of the Web. In Washington, D.C., WRC Channel 4, with
the support of NASA, has created an innovative information access
initiative. Review the WRC site at http://wxnet4.nbc4.com.

***Instructor Note:** What is the reaction of the class to this form of
information access?*

**12.2 Distance Learning**

Within the emergency management community, several organizations have
initiated innovative extended learning efforts ranging from self-paced
individual learning to forums or "chat rooms" that bring together
informed experts. The future may include a new form of classroom that
uses the Internet to allow more timely access to learning.

> **Question for the Class:** The University of North Texas has created
> the class "Emergency Management Tutorial," to be completed by learners
> over the Internet (http://www.ias.unt.edu/cgi-bin/optest). What do you
> see as the strengths and limitations of using Internet technology in
> training and education for emergency management?
>
> *This type of educational technology provides access to the "Tutorial"
> to anyone with Internet access. No registration or fees are required.
> With proper advertising to the emergency management community, the
> "Tutorial" provides a great introduction to emergency management. This
> type of delivery of education or training materials provides the
> learner with access to educational materials at a time of the user's
> choice. For the provider, the "Tutorial" can be revised as needed with
> changes posted immediately. In addition, the provider can monitor who
> uses the "Tutorial." The development of this type of educational
> delivery mechanism may not be too different from other self-paced or
> independent study class formats. What is different is the session
> setup technology (computer program) or application.*

Complementing the distance learning approach illustrated by the
University of North Texas, the Disaster Prevention and Limitation
Conference was held on the Internet in 1996. The program was sponsored
by the University of Bradford in the UK by the Internet and accessed
through

http://ww.mcb.co.uk. There were 180 registered participants from Europe,
the USA, Japan, and Australia. "While the conference does not offer
physical hospitality, in the form of a conference dinner or preliminary
cocktails, it does offer a forum for a community of thinking and mental
stimulation and facilities for generating and promulgating new ideas and
concepts (Keller, 1996)." For an excellent example of distance learning
review the work of Henry Fischer at Millersville University and his
course on the Sociology of Disaster:
(http://www.millersv.edu/\~socanth/dissyl.html).

The syllabus for this course is included in the Student Readings as
12Syllabus---a Word document.

**12.3 Digital Libraries**

The digital environment of the Internet is an excellent means of making
information available to anyone. Borbinha (1996) contends that these
libraries can go well beyond just the preservation and dissemination of
knowledge to become active partners with the potential to stimulate,
support and register the process of creation of that knowledge. Users of
the library thus have means of viewing the data/knowledge from different
perspectives or raising complex questions that can lead to answers.

The digital library is an "assemblage of digital computing, storage, and
communications machinery together with the content and software needed
to reproduce, emulate and extend the services provided by conventional
libraries based on paper and other material means of collecting,
cataloging, finding, and disseminating information. A full service
digital library must accomplish all essential services of the
traditional libraries and also exploit the well-known advantages of
digital storage, searching and communications" (Gladney et al., 1994).

Borbinha (1996) suggests that with the power of computers and networks,
technology may be used to convert our memory and knowledge to a digital
format and to store it at an affordable cost. The resulting digital
format may be made available to everyone through the Internet, CD, or
other electronic means.

> Computers were first introduced in libraries to help in the management
> of catalogues. In the beginning they were used almost exclusively by
> librarians, but with the advantage of the networks and personal
> computers the catalogues went online. . . At the same time sharing
> catalogues between libraries became easier, leading to a new kind of
> improved services such as inter library lending. Finally, the
> technology brought digital publication. It became easy to write a
> text, to be stored in a server, and to have it accessible worldwide
> (p. 197).

Together with the traditional cataloging and digital books or journals,
libraries are now indexing databases and allowing users the opportunity
to find specific information for their use. The digital library may
include photos, maps, or other graphics in a compressed format in
digital format.

> **Question for the Class:**
>
> The Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network
> provides an innovative gateway to massive amounts of data stored in
> locations around the world. (See http://wwwgateway.ciesin.org. Also
> see the reproduction of the catalog search page, below.)
>
> Through a single powerful search tool, users can search for
> environmental, health, population or socioeconomic data. Users have
> included both graduate and undergraduate students, government agency
> personnel, business and non-profit employees, and the public. Look at
> this Web site and discuss whether this type of information access will
> address some of our information needs in emergency management. Are the
> search tools easy to use, and are the format and source of the data
> obtained adequately explained?
>
> *It is suggested that the instructor complete a search and display the
> results to the class for discussion. Census data on a county level
> would be a good data set to use for a class interested in emergency
> planning and response at the state or local level. You could select
> the census data for the geographic area of your institution.*

+-------------+--------------------------------------------------------+
|             | Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center             |
|             |                                                        |
|             | Data and Information Catalog Services                  |
+-------------+--------------------------------------------------------+

Multiple Catalog Search Session

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  ![](media/image5.wmf)Restrict                                                                                                                                                                                                 
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  **CIESIN Catalogs**                                                                                                                                                                                                           

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

  ![](media/image7.wmf)           [SEDAC Catalog](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutsedac.html)  ![](media/image8.wmf)                          [CIESIN/USDA                                                                      
                                                                                                                                              Catalog](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutusda.html)                               

  ![](media/image9.wmf)           [GLREIS                                                      ![](media/image10.wmf)                         [CIESIN/ATSDR                                                                     
                                  Catalog](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutglreis.html)                                                       Catalog](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutatsdr.html)                              

  ![](media/image11.wmf)          [CIESIN Government Information Locator System (GILS)                                                          \<!\-- \############ GCRIO Catalogs \#############                              
                                  Catalog](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutgils.html)                                                         \--\>                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

  **Catalogs of the Global Change                                                                                                                                                                                               
  Research Information Office**                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

  ![](media/image12.wmf)          [GCRIO Bibliographic                                         ![](media/image13.wmf)                         [GCRIO Online                                                                     
                                  Database](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutgcrio.html)                                                       Documents](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutgcrio.html)                            

  ![](media/image14.wmf)          [USGCRP FY95 and FY96 Program                                ![](media/image15.wmf)                         [AGCI EarthPulse                                                                  
                                  Summaries](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutgcrio.html)                                                      Notes](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutgcrio.html)                                

  ![](media/image16.wmf)          [Consequences](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutgcrio.html)   ![](media/image17.wmf)                         [AGCI Elements of                                                                 
                                                                                                                                              Change](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutgcrio.html)                               
                                                                                                                                              \<!\-- \############ Relevant Federal Catalogs                                    
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  **Relevant Federal Catalogs**                                                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

  ![](media/image18.wmf)          NASA Global Change Master Directory                          ![](media/image19.wmf)                         NOAA Coastal Services Center                                                      

  ![](media/image20.wmf)          [National Snow and Ice Data                                  ![](media/image21.wmf)                         [NCDC Library of Historical                                                       
                                  Center](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutnoaa.html)                                                          Datasets](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutnoaa.html)                              

  ![](media/image22.wmf)          [NOAA National Climatic Data                                 ![](media/image23.wmf)                         [NOAA National Oceanographic Data                                                 
                                  Center](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutnoaa.html)                                                          Center](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutnoaa.html)                                

  ![](media/image24.wmf)          [NOAA National Marine Fisheries                              ![](media/image25.wmf)                         [NOAA Central Library Historical                                                  
                                  Service](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutnoaa.html)                                                         Datasets](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutnoaa.html)                              

  ![](media/image26.wmf)          [NOAA Environmental Services Data                            ![](media/image27.wmf)                         [NOAA National Geophysical Data                                                   
                                  Directory](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutnoaa.html)                                                       Center](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutnoaa.html)                                

  ![](media/image28.wmf)          National Biological Information Infrastructure Metadata      ![](media/image29.wmf)                         U.S. Geological Survey geoscience data                                            
                                  Clearinghouse                                                                                                                                                                                 

  ![](media/image30.wmf)          USGS Water Information                                       ![](media/image31.wmf)                         Large Spatial Data Collections (USGS, USF&WS, Census)                             
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  ![](media/image32.wmf)          Illinois Natural Resources Geospatial Data Clearinghouse     ![](media/image33.wmf)                         Georgia GIS Data Clearinghouse                                                    
                                  Node                                                                                                                                                                                          

  ![](media/image34.wmf)          The University of Montana                                    ![](media/image35.wmf)![](media/image36.wmf)   Nebraska Geospatial Data Clearinghouse                   ![](media/image37.wmf)   Alaska
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Geospatial Data
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Clearinghouse

  ![](media/image38.wmf)          Wisconsin Land Information Clearinghouse                     ![](media/image39.wmf)                         North Carolina Corporate Geographic Database                                      

  ![](media/image40.wmf)          Mount Desert Island Region - Maine                           ![](media/image41.wmf)                         Delaware Geospatial Clearinghouse Node                                            

  ![](media/image42.wmf)          State of Kansas Data Access and Support Center               ![](media/image43.wmf)                         Wyoming Natural Resources Data Clearinghouse                                      

  ![](media/image44.wmf)          Pennsylvania Digital Raster Graphics                         ![](media/image45.wmf)                         Pennsylvania Spatial Data Access Node                                             

  ![](media/image46.wmf)          State of Pennsylvania Elevation Data                         ![](media/image47.wmf)                         MIT/MassGIS Digital Orthophoto Project                                            

  ![](media/image48.wmf)          Washington State Geospatial Clearinghouse Node               ![](media/image49.wmf)                         West Virginia State GIS Technical Center                                          

  ![](media/image50.wmf)          New Mexico Resource Geographic Information System            ![](media/image51.wmf)                         Geological Survey of Alabama Geospatial Data                                      
                                                                                                                                              Clearinghouse Node                                                                

  ![](media/image52.wmf)          Montana Dept. of Environmental Quality                       ![](media/image53.wmf)                         New York State GIS Metadata Repository                                            

  ![](media/image54.wmf)          Texas Natural Resources Information System                   ![](media/image55.wmf)                         Helena National Forest, Montana                                                   

  ![](media/image56.wmf)          Greater Yellowstone Area Data Clearinghouse                  ![](media/image57.wmf)                         San Francisco Bay/Delta GIS                                                       

  ![](media/image58.wmf)          North Texas GIS Consortium                                                                                    \<!\-- \############ Relevant International Catalogs                            
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  ![](media/image59.wmf)          [ESTO (Japan) Asian/Pacific                                  ![](media/image60.wmf)                         Biological Resource Maps, Costa Rica (KU)                                         
                                  Catalog](../../../../../../../../gw/aboutesto.html)                                                                                                                                           

  ![](media/image61.wmf)          Africa Data Dissemination Service                            ![](media/image62.wmf)                         Caribbean Environment Programme                                                   

  ![](media/image63.wmf)          Southern Africa Metadata                                     ![](media/image64.wmf)                         Inter-American Geospatial Data Network                                            

  ![](media/image65.wmf)          CODEPLAN, Brasilia, Brazil                                                                                    \<!\-- \############ Other Relevant Catalogs                                    
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  **Other Relevant Catalogs**                                                                                                                                                                                                   

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

  ![](media/image66.wmf)          US Army Corps of Engineers                                   ![](media/image67.wmf)                         FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps, Q3 Flood Data Sampler                             

  ![](media/image68.wmf)          Natural Resources Conservation Service Digital Soils Data    ![](media/image69.wmf)                         BTS National Transportation Atlas Database                                        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
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***Examples of Digital Libraries***

The information dissemination program involves the publication of a
printed newsletter, the Natural Hazards Observer, as well as numerous
monographs, working papers, bibliographies, and special publications. In
addition, the center moderates and distributes an electronic newsletter
and discussion forum called *Disaster Research* (DR).

See the Natural Hazards Internet Site at http://www.colorado.edu/hazard.

The Emergency Management Institute within FEMA has established an
on-line library to enable the emergency management community to search
for books, articles, studies, and audio visual materials from its
Learning Resource Center. This collection may be searched by linking
Internet through http://www.lrc.fema.gov.

**12.4 Digital Publications**

***Emergency Management Journals, Newsletters, and Bulletins***

1\. Emergency management journals, newsletters, and bulletins are going
on line through the Internet. MCB University Press manages over 400
journals. These journals include *Environmental Management and Health
and Disaster Prevention and Management.* Users subscribe to a journal
and have access to the journal articles in a digital format.

2\. The Center of Excellence in Disaster Management has created an
excellent digital library and set of digital publications including
disaster related journals. Review these journals by Internet:
http://website.tamc.amedd.army.mil.

3\. The Natural Hazards Research Center, associated with Macquarie
University in North Ryde, NS, Australia, is an excellent resource for
natural hazards publications. The center can be reached by Internet:
http://www.es.mq.edu.au/nhrc.

> The publications from the center are an excellent resource for
> emergency managers and reflect a growing number of organizations
> making publications available by the Internet. The center publishes
> the Natural Hazards Quarterly. Its focus is on natural hazards
> research and applications in the Australia-Pacific Asia region. As a
> part of the center's service, the Natural Hazards Quarterly provides
> an excellent resource to emergency managers in an easy-to-obtain
> format. The NHQ provides an example of on-line Internet access to
> research publications. A copy of the Web page for NHQ is available in
> the Readings folder in the instructor's material.

4\. NASA Ames Research Emergency Communications Center has developed a
news service, "StoneFly," that provides up-to-date information relating
to emergency management. Register as a user at
http://stonefly.arc.nasa.gov. This is an outstanding service and one
that all emergency managers should review.

**12.5 Computer Intelligence: Making the Systems Smarter**

Expert systems are information systems that support or automate decision
making in an area where recognized experts do better than non-experts.
The expert system stores the decision-making criteria and applies them
to the situation. Alter (1996, p. 505) provides examples of the
application of expert systems. A few of these are provided: predicting
abnormal physical conditions, helping geologists understand seismic
data, designing building systems, distributing goods, monitoring signals
from communications systems, debugging network telephone problems,
training space shuttle flight controllers, and making sure that
paperwork is complete.

> **Question for the Class:** When are expert systems effective?
>
> *Two considerations come into play in answering this question. Expert
> use of expert systems depends on the nature of the task and the
> availability of knowledge.*

-   *Nature of the task: Experts can do better than non-experts under
    the following conditions:*

> *1. The task involves reasoning and knowledge, not intuition or
> reflexes;*
>
> *2. The task can be done by a person in minutes or hours;*
>
> *3. The task is concrete enough to codify;*
>
> *4. The task is commonly taught to novices.*

-   *Availability of knowledge: For the expert system to be created
    there must be an established body of knowledge.*

> *1. Recognized experts must exist;*
>
> *2. There must be general agreement among experts on the right
> solution;*
>
> *3. Experts must be able and willing to articulate the way they
> approach problems.*

***Use of If-Then Rules***

Many expert systems use if-then rules in diagnosis, planning, and
analytical tasks. A knowledge-based system that uses if-then rules
starts with a list of facts about a particular situation. It uses rules
to draw conclusions or take actions based on these facts. These
conclusions or actions create other facts. These additional facts are
added to the list of current facts, and the system continues, using the
rules to draw additional conclusions or to take additional actions. Some
systems also use the facts and rules to decide what additional questions
to ask (Alter, 1996 p. 510).

***Management Considerations in Using Expert Systems***

Many computer models are used to determine future weather conditions,
the potential area of a chemical release, hurricane storm surges, or
community evacuation times. These expert systems have a set of
assumptions that provide a basis for the model or expert system. These
assumptions could be predicted weather conditions, notions of how a
chemical will behave, or ways that people will behave under stress or
crisis. It is critical for the emergency manager to review these
assumptions with personnel who understand the expert system so that
users have confidence in the output from the expert system. It may seem
like technical jargon, but this dialogue must occur to ensure that the
expert is on track. Those that use the results of expert systems have a
vital role in working with those that develop expert systems to ensure
that the system is applicable to the assumptions inherent in the model.

***Additional Concerns in Using Expert Systems***

**Equivalent to human experts:** Alter addresses the concern whether
expert systems are equivalent to human experts (1996 pp. 516 -- 517).

**Fuzzy Logic:** Alter notes that "fuzzy logic, case-based reasoning,
and intelligent agents" are three additional artificial intelligence
(AI) related issues that have important applications to the use of AI in
emergency management. Fuzzy logic is "reasoning that makes it possible
to combine conditions stated in an imprecise form similar to the way
people think about many things. The basic idea of fuzzy logic is to
describe characteristics as a range of values rather than a point value
and then to have a good way to combine rules that use these ranges of
values" (Alter, 1996 p. 524).

**Case Based Reasoning:** Case based reasoning involves decision making
based on past case examples rather than a precise formula. Obviously,
the more case examples, the more precise the solution to the problem.

**Intelligent Agents:** Intelligent agents involve a computerized
process that can be launched in a computer system to perform background
work while other processes are continuing in the expert system. In
essence it wakes up to answer questions that should be addressed to make
the model accurate.

**Limitations on Expert Systems:** "Computers can control missile and
airplanes but cannot understand stories for four-year-olds" (Alter, 1996
p. 528). Emergency managers should realize that computers have
limitations and should use these powerful tools in the emergency
management process and not as a quick fix to problems.

**Case Example:** Slap (1998) provides an example of an expert system
for helping in managing a hazardous materials release in the
petrochemical industry. The system was conceived as a complete incident
command decision support tool which uses material safety data sheets,
building and tank information, personnel records, notification lists,
various checklists, and other information that is valuable to emergency
responders. The system was installed in a large chemical plant in
Pennsylvania and tested with very positive results.

**12.6 Managing the Technology**

Alter (1996) makes several suggestions for ensuring that technology is a
positive contribution to the emergency management process.

> **Question for the Class:** How would these suggestions help in using
> new applications of technology in emergency management? What other
> suggestions would assist in making technology work for emergency
> management?

-   Evaluate the technology as a component of a larger system (emergency
    management system).

> *The question is not to select either Internet education applications
> such as the Emergency Management Tutorial from North Texas State
> University, a self paced learning session from the Emergency
> Management Institute, or a workshop offered by a state agency. New
> developments in technology-based education using the Internet, CDs, or
> other distance learning applications may be used in addition to
> traditional workshops and conferences. The new developments in
> distance learning should complement what emergency managers are taking
> advantage of in the current system.*

-   Recognize that technology will have life-cycle costs, not just
    acquisition costs.

> *The use of new technology will initially have high start-up costs
> which are lowered over time. CDs, which at one time cost over \$10 per
> disk, now cost far less. In addition, information which was placed on
> a CD for distribution can now be downloaded from an Internet site
> using faster communication devices.*

-   Design the technology to be maintainable.

> *All parts of the technology will change. Build into any application
> the notion that programs will need to be adapted, computer hardware
> upgraded, and new devices and storage and imaging displays added. The
> data and the programs will change as users point out needed
> developments. Changing the technology in any form will require that
> the components be maintained.*

-   Recognize the human side of technology as it is used in emergency
    management.

> *Many users of technology complain of the difficulty of understanding
> the application of technical details of programs, devices, or data.
> Technology will work best for emergency management when it is packaged
> in a format that can be understood by the novice as well as the
> experienced user.*

-   Support and control the technology (Alter 1996, pp. 544 -- 546).

> *Many users of technology express their frustration in confronting
> problems with hardware or programs. Technology works best when
> adequate technical support is available to users. In addition, the
> support can be used as a means of ensuring that the technology system
> is being installed and used as designed.*

***Recommendations***

**Conduct a cost benefit analysis:** Alter suggests conducting a cost
benefit analysis. Look at tangible and intangible benefits. There may be
a tendency to understate the cost of technology and information. Ask the
class if they believe that there may be hidden costs associated with any
application of technology.

**Hidden risks with technology:** There are risks associated with any
move to technology. Will the benefits be achieved? What if the project
is over budget? What if the system's performance is inadequate? What if
the technology is not accepted by users? What if the priorities of the
users change and the technology not fully implemented? (See Alter 1996
p. 572).

**Systems have a life cycle:** Understand where the implementation of
the technology is in this cycle:
Initiation--Development--Implementation--Operation and Maintenance.
(Alter, 1996 pp. 591 -- 626.)

**Protecting the security of the technology and information:** Alter
(pp. 637 -- 669) discusses the risks of accidents and the implications
for the business process. The application of technology does come with
risks.

**12.7 Modeling**

The Department of Energy's (DOE) Los Alamos National Laboratory has
developed a Wildfire Prediction System as a part of the agency's crisis
forecasting project. The program is an attempt to predict the spread of
a wildfire. The model simulates both the fire behavior and the local and
regional weather conditions that affect the fire. The model is an
example of computer models that are being developed for civilian
purposes by the DOE National Laboratories. In the future, models may be
designed to run on Windows NT systems rather than the Unix super
computer systems.

> **Question for the Class:** What measures can be taken to minimize the
> adverse affects of accidents and malfunctions in the use of
> technology? (See Alter, 1996 pp. 638 -- 667.)
>
> *Monitor for*

-   *Operator Error*

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-   *Hardware malfunctions*

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-   *Software bugs*

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-   *Data errors*

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-   *Damage to physical facilities*

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-   *Inadequate system performance*

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-   *Liability for system failure*

> **Question for the Class:** Stanley and Waugh (1999) say that forces
> including technology, politics, economics, demographics, and
> environmental change will act together to influence the future of all
> levels of government in the U.S. Do students agree with the authors
> about the role that technology can contribute to the future of state
> and local governments?
>
> In addition, the authors state that each agency in the municipality
> will check its decisions and plans with every other agency in the
> municipality, ensuring the coordination of all of their actions. Do
> students agree with the authors that emergency management will involve
> a greater interdependency with other local government agencies in the
> future? Do students see that emergency management will have this
> interdependency with agencies outside local government? What agencies
> could be included in this system? How will technology assist in the
> emergency management process?