**[NASA Earth Science Enterprise]{.smallcaps}**

**[Applications Division]{.smallcaps}**

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*Public Health Applications of Earth Science Project on*

# Malaria Modeling and Surveillance

*(Mekong Malaria & Filariasis)*

***Goddard Space Flight Center Project Plan: FY2004-FY2006***

*(v. 1)*

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*Earth Science for Society*

> *Accelerating the realization of economic*
>
> *and societal benefits from Earth science,*
>
> *information, and technology ...*

**Table of Contents**

1 Purpose 3

1.1 Introduction & Background 3

1.2 Expected Value & Benefits 3

1.3 Project Goal & Objectives 4

2 Project Team 4

2.1 Team 4

3 Roles & Responsibilities 5

4 Implementation 6

4.1 Approach 6

4.2 DSS Selection 6

4.3 Deliverables 7

4.4 Schedule & Milestones 7

4.5 Budget 7

4.6 Exit Strategy 8

4.7 Performance Measures 8

5 Signature Page 9

malaria project plan 040509.doc

**1 Purpose**

1.1 Introduction & Background

At 4,200 km, the Mekong River is the tenth longest river in the world.
It directly and indirectly influences the lives of hundreds of millions
of inhabitants in its basin. The riparian countries -- Thailand,
Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and a small part of China -- form the
Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). This geographical region has the
misfortune of being the world's epicenter of falciparum malaria, which
is the most severe form of malaria caused by *Plasmodium falciparum*.
Depending on the country, approximately 50 to 90% of all malaria cases
are due to this species. In spite of extensive international efforts,
progress in malaria treatment and control in GMS has been limited. In
2001, NASA established a collaborative project with Mahidol University
(Thailand) after the university made an urgent request for assistance in
malaria control using remote sensing technologies. A Letter of Agreement
was signed in March 2001 with Mahidol University. The collaboration was
also extended to filariasis, since the same remote sensing technology
can be used. While less deadly than malaria, tens of millions of people
are disfigured or disabled by lymphatic filariasis worldwide. WHO is
determined to eradicate filariasis. However, remote sensing is still
largely unknown to the community as a viable method for disease control.

Mahidol University is Thailand\'s leading university. Its Faculty of
Tropical Medicine is internationally recognized for its work on malaria
treatment, control and monitoring. The Faculty is the seat of the
Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization\'s Regional Center
for Topical Medicine, and a leader in promoting malaria control in
Southeast Asia. Also located in Bangkok, Thailand is the U.S. Armed
Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences (AFRIMS), a DoD preeminent
medical research facility established nearly four decades ago. An
informal collaboration was initiated after Dr. Coleman, the then Chief
of Entomology Department at AFRIMS, visited the PI at Goddard in July
2001. The collaboration with the military has since been expanded to
other organizations, including Uniformed Services University (USU), Navy
Disease Vector Ecology and Control Center (NDVECC), and Walter Reed Army
Institute of Research (WRAIR). Funding from NASA started in February
2002 and was maintained at a level of 0.4 FTE through FY03.

1.2 Expected Value and Benefits

Once completed, we expect the project will offer the following values
and benefits:

-   Increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to
    malaria outbreaks

-   Optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis

-   Reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance

-   Reduced damage to environment

-   Reduced morbidity and mortality for U.S. overseas forces and local
    population

-   Enhanced DOD's medical capabilities

-   Increased utilization of NASA remote sensing data and technologies
    in national and international malaria research and control

1.3 Project Goal and Objectives

The goal of the project is to use NASA data, technologies and research
results to enhance partners' decision support processes or systems. The
enhancements will be achieved by:

\(1\) Identifying the potential breeding sites for major vector species
and the locations for larvicide and insecticide applications,

\(2\) Implementing a malaria transmission model characterizing the
interactions among hosts, vectors, parasites, landcover and environment
in order to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria
transmission, and

\(3\) Implementing a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria
and its transmission intensity using epidemiological data and
satellite-derived or ground-measured multitemporal environmental and
meteorological data.

## **2 Project Team**

2.1 Team

Dr. Richard Kiang of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is the Project
Manager as well as the Principal Investigator (PI).

Most of the efforts have been focused on Thailand, but some techniques
have been developed using Korean data. Recently the possibility of
working with (DoD) Uniformed Services University, University of
California at Davis and Belize Ministry of Health opened up on malaria
in Belize. UC Davis may provide a postdoctoral fellow to work with the
PI at GSFC. Belize test sites will only be studied if resources are
available. Larval habitats identification using satellite data are
carried out for test sites in Thailand and Korea. If Belize test sites
are to be studied, larval habitat identification will be extended to
those sites too.

The project relies on the partner organizations to provide
epidemiological and entomological data. Normally an organization
specializes in the malaria for certain regions of the world. Hence the
partner organizations vary from region to region.

[Project Manager & PI]{.underline} Dr. Richard Kiang

[NASA Center Participation]{.underline}

Stennis Space Center Fritz Policelli (systems engineering support)

# Project Partners

***For Thailand:***

U.S. Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences

Dr. James Jones, *et al.*

Walter Reed Army Institute of Research

Dr. Russell Coleman

(DoD) Uniformed Services Univ. Dr. Donald Roberts, *et al.*

Mahidol University Dr. Sornchai Looareesuwan, *et al.*

Thai Ministry of Public Health Dr. Jeeraphat Sirichaisinthop, *et al.*

***For Korea:***

U.S. Army 18^th^ Medical Command (potential partner)

Dr. Terry Klein

U.S. Navy Disease Vectors Ecology and Control Center

Dr. David Claborn

(DoD) Uniformed Services Univ. Dr. Donald Roberts, *et al.*

***For Belize*** (a potential application and testing area):

University of California at Davis Dr. Eliska Rejmankova

(DoD) Uniformed Services Univ. Dr. Donald Roberts, *et al.*

Belize Ministry of Health

The partners are not merely suppliers for data and information on
vectors and malaria. The results and outcome of this project are an
integral part of their efforts to mitigate morbidity and mortality
associated with the diseases, and therefore will be carefully reviewed
by the partner organizations. The partner organizations are highly
regarded nationally and internationally for their malaria work. If
external reviews are needed, concurrence with the partner organizations
should be obtained as the project is intertwined with the partners' own
operations and R&D efforts.

**3 Roles and Responsibilities**

NASA

-- Project management

-- Provide expertise in remote sensing, GIS, modeling and analyses

-- Collect certain socioeconomic parameters relevant to modeling and
analyses

-- Provide satellite data for the test areas, including IKONOS, AVHRR,
MODIS, and possibly EO-1 ALI, ASTER and Landsat. Radiance values from
all satellites and MOD07 atmospheric product will be used.

Partner organizations

-- Conduct field work

-- Provide field work support while NASA personnel participates

-- Provide expertise in epidemiology and entomology, including the
parameters needed for developing NASA models

-- Provide socioeconomic data required in modeling

-- Provide epidemiological data

-- Share the satellite data already obtained with NASA

NASA and partner organizations are responsible for their own funding to
perform the above responsibilities.

## **4 Implementation**

4.1 Approach

The general technical approach for this project is depicted in the
following flowchart.

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Techniques involved in modeling and analyses include:

Habitat Identification -- textural-contextual classifications, discrete
wavelet transform, various spatial techniques, etc.

Malaria Transmission -- discrete event simulations, compartmental model,
etc.

Risk Prediction -- wavelet transform, Hilbert-Huang Transform, neural
network, etc.

4.2 DSS Selection

Enhancing the stakeholders' Decision Support Systems (DSS) with NASA
data and technologies is the ultimate goal of the project. To identify
such DSS, however, may not be trivial for this project. For military
stakeholders, their DSS are likely classified. Even our military partner
organizations may not have direct access to such DSS. For civilian
stakeholders, which include Thai Ministry of Public Health and possibly
Belize Ministry of Health, computer based DSS may not exist.

If direct interface to a DSS is not possible because it is either
nonexistent or classified, the project will investigate what data or
information products are considered useful by the decision makers.
Efforts will then be taken to generate products that closely match what
are desired by the decision makers. And the project will establish a web
site to make such products available to the decision makers.

4.3 Deliverables

\(1\) Evaluation Report

Efforts will be started in March 2004 to attempt to identify military
decision makers and what NASA data or information may be useful for
decision making in the context of the project. General information may
be obtained by meeting with stakeholders. However, depending on the
geographic region and the theater of operations currently engaged by the
Armed Forces, specific information products may be needed. Such findings
will be documented in the Evaluation Report. How the project may be able
to generate such products or approximate products will be discussed also
in the Evaluation Report. The report will be released one month after
all the necessary meetings are held.

\(2\) Project capabilities will be shown to project partners,
stakeholders, and HQ in presentations, and will also be documented if
needed.

\(3\) Instruction material for users will also be provided if these
capabilities are able to be incorporated into stakeholders' DSS.

\(4\) V&V Report will be available one month after major V&V steps are
accomplished.

\(5\) Bechmark Report will be available by the end of FY06.

4.4 Schedule & Milestones

  ---------------------------------- ------ --- --- --- ------ --- --- --- ------ --- --- ---
                                     FY04               FY05               FY06           

  Evaluation Report                                                                       

  Habitat identification                                                                   

  Habitat identification -- V&V                                                            

  Transmission model                                                                      

  Transmission model -- V&V                                                               

  Risk prediction                                                                         

  Risk prediction -- V&V                                                                  

  Benchmark Report                                                                        
  ---------------------------------- ------ --- --- --- ------ --- --- --- ------ --- --- ---

The starting and ending quarters for the tasks shown above are
approximate. Factors that contribute to the uncertainty include: 1)
availability of epidemiological, entomological, and socioeconomic data,
2) scheduling of field work that requires partners' participations, and
3) funding availability.

4.5 Budget

Traditional budget (non-full cost) for performing project activities are
listed below.

  ----------------------------- ------------- -------------- -------------
  **Project Activities**        **FY04**      **FY05**       **FY06**

  Support service contract      352           373            395

  Hardware & software purchases 8             27             5
  & maintenance                                              

  Total                         360           400            400
  ----------------------------- ------------- -------------- -------------

4.6 Exit Strategy

At the end of the project, the capabilities developed by the project
will be available to stakeholders as possible enhancements to their DSS
or decision making process. If required and if resources are available,
stakeholder's personnel will be trained to produce data or information
products that are needed in their decision making process.

A number of factors, however, may require NASA personnel maintain a
low-level presence. These factors may include: 1) changes in upstream
data products that are needed for generating the information products
for stakeholders, 2) unfamiliarity of new users in using the information
products. Because the stakeholders may lack the multidisciplinary
expertise required to retrofit the NASA components in their DSS, NASA
personnel may still need to be involved.

4.7 Performance Measures

The PI will compare project progress with project schedule and
milestones to determine whether the project is on track to produce
stated results.

The PI of will communicate with GSFC Earth Sciences Directorate
management and HQ program manager regarding the progress, issues, and
the impact. The issues possibly may arise from: 1) funding, 2)
interaction with other agencies, and 3) interactions with foreign and
international organizations.

The projects will be considered beneficial if the project results lead
to: 1) new or improved capabilities that can be implemented in
stakeholders' DSS, or 2) new or improved data or information products
that are available for stakeholders' decision processes.

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