Session No. 9

# Course Title: Hazard Mapping and Modeling

**Session 16: Modeling Wind Hazards**

**Prepared By: Marc Levitan, Associate Professor, and Ms. Carol
Friedland, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana
State University.**

## Time: 4 hrs

**Objectives:**

**9.1 Define the nature of wind hazards.**

**9.2 Discuss the interaction of wind hazards with the built
environment.**

**9.3 Describe wind damage mechanisms.**

**9.4 Discuss the goals and objectives of wind hazard modeling, specific
to the intended user.**

**9.5 Outline the capabilities and components of the HAZUS-MH Wind model
and discuss data requirements.**

**9.6 Review available results and discuss importance to different user
groups.**

**9.7 Discuss the application of HAZUS-MH Wind model results for both
planning and emergency management operations.**

**Scope:**

This session provides an introduction to the nature and extent of wind
hazards and the associated social, economic and environmental impacts.
Methods for modeling wind hazards will be examined to identify the
information needed to generate an estimation of wind damage and loss.
The session will examine the HAZUS-MH Wind software and how it can be
used to characterize the social, economic and environmental impacts of
wind hazards.

Readings:

*Student Reading:*

Lavelle, Vickery, Schauer, Twisdale, and Laatsch, "The HAZUS-MH
Hurricane Model." Proceedings, [11th International Conference on Wind
Engineering]{.underline}, Texas Tech University, June 2003, pp.
1015-1022

FEMA and National Institute of Building Sciences (2003). (Chapter 1,
Appendix A - C) Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology -- Hurricane
Model. HAZUS-MH User Manual. FEMA and National Institute of Building
Sciences. Washington, D.C.

*Instructor Reading:*

Lavelle, Vickery, Schauer, Twisdale, and Laatsch, "The HAZUS-MH
Hurricane Model." Proceedings, [11th International Conference on Wind
Engineering]{.underline}, Texas Tech University, June 2003, pp.
1015-1022

FEMA and National Institute of Building Sciences (2003). (Chapter 1,
Appendix A - C) Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology -- Hurricane
Model. HAZUS-MH User Manual. FEMA and National Institute of Building
Sciences. Washington, D.C.

**General Requirements:**

Power point slides are provided for the instructor's use, if so desired.

It is recommended that students with little or no knowledge of wind
hazards acquire a general overview of this hazard. Websites for
materials relating to these are listed at the session's conclusion.

**Objective 9.1. Define the nature of wind hazards**

Requirements:

Provide a general overview of wind as a hazard and why it is so critical
to understand the nature and extent of wind hazards in a local
community.

**Remarks:**

I.  General Definition of **Wind Hazard**

> A. Threat to humans and what they value caused by extreme wind events

II. Examples of **Wind Hazards** (brief introduction of each topic with
    photos)

> [A. Hurricanes]{.mark}
>
> [B. Tornadoes]{.mark}
>
> []{.mark}

III. [Possible **Consequences** of Winds]{.mark}

> []{.mark}
>
> [A. **Property Damage/Loss** -- photos, statistics]{.mark}
>
> [B. **Injury/Death** -- photos, statistics]{.mark}
>
> []{.mark}

IV. [Important to Understand **Wind Hazards** Now, More than
    Ever]{.mark}

> []{.mark}
>
> [A. **Protection** of life and property]{.mark}
>
> [B. Escalating **costs** of damage]{.mark}
>
> [C. Increased **population along coast**]{.mark}
>
> [D. **Computational abilities** exist to better define and understand
> hazards and damage potential]{.mark}
>
> []{.mark}

[V. Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones, Tropical Storms]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

[A. Where they **originate** (explain nomenclature difference)]{.mark}

[B. Brief **meteorological synopsis** -- what causes them, how they
travel, duration,]{.mark}

[etc.]{.mark}

[C. What constitutes **classification/severity** -- Saffir Simpson,
etc.]{.mark}

> [D. Associated **damage mechanisms** -- wind, rain, windborne debris,
> storm surge (storm surge to be covered in separate topic),
> etc.]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

**[Objective 9.2. Discuss the interaction of wind hazards with the built
environment]{.mark}**

[]{.mark}

[Requirements:]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

[This section defines the interaction of wind hazards with the built
environment and the factors that influence wind damage.]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

**[Remarks:]{.mark}**

[]{.mark}

I.  [**Wind Pressure** on Structures]{.mark}

> []{.mark}
>
> [A. **Direction and magnitudes** of pressures]{.mark}
>
> [B. **Extent of high winds** -- Hurricane wind band example]{.mark}
>
> [C. **Positive/negative pressures**]{.mark}
>
> [D. **Buildup of internal pressures**]{.mark}
>
> []{.mark}

II. [**Windborne Debris and Structure** Interaction]{.mark}

> []{.mark}
>
> [A. **Generation -- failures**, roof gravel, etc.]{.mark}
>
> [B. **Types of debris,** information on speed of travel (2x4 through
> palm tree)]{.mark}
>
> [C. How **debris** becomes airborne]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

**[Objective 9.3. Describe wind damage mechanisms]{.mark}**

[]{.mark}

[Requirements:]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

[This section describes the mechanisms of wind damage upon the built
environment, and the cumulative effects of failures.]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

**[Remarks:]{.mark}**

[]{.mark}

I.  [Damage Mechanisms of **Wind Pressures**]{.mark}

> []{.mark}
>
> [A. Roof, wall failures, generation of windborne debris]{.mark}
>
> [B. Injury/death statistics for wind]{.mark}
>
> []{.mark}

II. [Damage Mechanisms of **Windborne Debris**]{.mark}

> []{.mark}
>
> [A. Breach of building envelope causes increased internal
> pressures]{.mark}
>
> [B. Additional debris generation]{.mark}
>
> [C. Injury/death for windborne debris?]{.mark}
>
> []{.mark}

III. [Damage Mechanisms of **Storm Surge and Rain**]{.mark}

> []{.mark}
>
> [A. These will be covered in the flooding/storm surge models, but the
> importance of the combined effects should be mentioned]{.mark}
>
> [B. Injury/death]{.mark}

**Objective 9.4. Discuss the goals and objectives of wind hazard
modeling, specific to the intended user**

Requirements:

Detail the goals and objectives of wind hazard modeling from the
perspective of different end users. Outline types of wind damage models
available and demonstrate the interdependence of models to obtain an
end-user estimate for damage and loss.

**Remarks:**

I. The uses of a wind hazard model are suited to the stakeholders (Power
Point Slide 9-2). By understanding the **interests of different
groups**, the objectives in developing damage models can also be
understood.

> A. Major **stakeholders** include local, state and federal government
> agencies, humanitarian organizations, the insurance industry, and
> businesses and private
>
> citizens.

II\. **Government agencies** are affected in many ways and act in many
capacities during a wind storm.

> A. **Local government** agencies are those that may be directly
> impacted by a wind storm event. These agencies include the emergency
> management community, the local building officials and other local
> government entities whose responsibility it is to begin rebuilding the
> area.
>
> B. **State** stakeholders include government officials, the emergency
> management community, and state organizations.
>
> C. **Federal government** agencies include the Department of Homeland
> Security, through FEMA, that respond to many severe wind storms.

III\. Humanitarian organizations include the American Red Cross and
other humanitarian organizations that provide disaster relief and
assistance to affected citizens. These organizations often are involved
in sheltering activities, fundraising and rebuilding activities.

IV\. The insurance industry is directly impacted by major wind storms.
The insurance business is governed by the collection of premiums to pay
for damages caused by a wind event.

V. Businesses and private citizens are directly impacted by damage to
their homes and businesses.

> A. This damage takes many forms and may lead to displacement, loss of
> personal and business articles, loss of use of businesses, loss of
> employment and loss of business revenue due to the damage sustained.

VI\. Categorizing wind hazard modeling objectives can be accomplished by
designating affected stakeholders (Power Point Slide 9-3). The two basic
categories of wind hazard modeling [objectives are assessment of damage
and loss.]{.mark}

A.  **[Damage]{.mark}**

B.  **[Loss]{.mark}**

C.  The **assessment of building vulnerability** includes understanding
    the quantity or percentage of buildings that may fail in a wind
    event and the probable mechanisms by which they will fail. This
    assessment primarily provides an estimate of the scope of potential
    building damage. By understanding damage that can be caused by wind
    hazards, several other needs can be identified

D.  An estimate of **building damage** is essential in making
    preparations for shelters during wind storms. Shelter occupancy may
    be estimated by assessing the resistance of the local building stock
    to a severe wind storm.

E.  Wind damage models are also used as an emergency management tool in
    **preparing plans** to respond to wind hazards. The outputs provided
    by a damage model should provide information about essential
    facilities (fire stations, hospitals, etc.), tree blow down, etc. so
    that adequate planning can be accomplished prior to a wind storm.

F.  The second level of wind hazard modeling is an **estimate of direct
    and indirect economic losses.**

G.  **Direct Economic Losses**

H.  **Indirect Economic Losses**

I.  Understanding the **physical vulnerability** of the region and the
    resulting economic costs, policymakers are better equipped to
    address building code requirements where mitigation strategies show
    drastic reductions in damage from calibrated models.

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V.  Several types of models are used to model wind hazards (Power Point
    Slide 9-4). Generally, the results of one model are incorporated
    into a subsequent model to describe a wind storm in terms of damage
    and loss.

> A. **Holistic, actualized cost models** aggregate losses experienced
> over time and are used to predict future losses that may occur.
> Generally, they are not based specifically on the region's building
> construction, but may be based upon information from other areas and
> for different storm parameters.
>
> B. **Meteorological models** provide predictions of storms' paths (for
> hurricanes). This type of model generates the study wind field and is
> the first step in modeling damage.
>
> 1\. This model is not a damage model in itself.
>
> 2\. The meteorological model must accurately model the wind field to
> provide information about the intensity and size of a storm.
>
> C. **Load vs. resistance structural damage models** are detailed
> engineering models that compare the forces exerted by the wind (the
> load) with the structural capacity (the resistance) of the building.
>
> 1\. The **calculated load and resistance values** are compared to
> determine if a failure has occurred. The wind load is an estimation of
> the physical forces calculated from the wind field developed in the
> meteorological model.
>
> 2\. The **resistance** is the calculated structural capacity of
> individual building types.
>
> 3\. This type of model can be applied over a large area by providing
> **detailed load vs. resistance information** for several building
> types and by specifying the percentage of the building stock that
> meets each of the building classification requirements.
>
> D. **Tree damage models** provide an understanding of tree impact on
> buildings. This type of model includes damage caused by debris
> generated from trees and by tree blow down impacting a building.
>
> E. **Airborne debris models** looks specifically at missiles that may
> become airborne, including debris generated from nearby building
> failures. This type of damage is experienced primarily on unprotected
> windows and doors.
>
> F. **Loss models** translate the modeled damage into resulting direct
> and indirect losses. These models are based upon cost of building
> repair and replacement, and other indirect loss estimators.
>
> G. This session specifically uses the **HAZUS-MH Wind Model** (Power
> Point Slide 9-5).

VI\. HAZUS "is designed to **produce loss estimates** for use by
federal, state, regional and local governments in planning for hurricane
risk mitigation, emergency preparedness, response and recovery."

VII\. The HAZUS Model was developed as a tool for **planning purposes.**
This session will also explore some emergency management aspects that
are possible with the HAZUS model by using **real time information**
available for advancing storms.

**Objective 9.5. Outline the capabilities and components of the HAZUS-MH
Wind model and discuss data requirements.**

Requirements:

This section outlines the capabilities of the HAZUS-MH program and
discusses model components. Input parameters and HAZUS-provided
information are also discussed.

**Remarks:**

I.  HAZUS-MH stands for **Hazards United States Multi-hazard** (Power
    Point Slide 9-6).

> A. HAZUS-MH is a product of the National Institute of Building
> Sciences (NIBS) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
>
> B. HAZUS-MH has been created in a form similar to the HAZUS earthquake
> model that was released in 1997.
>
> C. HAZUS-MH was released in 2003 and includes a flood model and
> hurricane model.
>
> D. It is a GIS-based model that can be used throughout the United
> States. Information for the hurricane model is provided for the
> Atlantic and Gulf Coast states.

II. HAZUS is a free program and is available on FEMA's website, however,
    it requires ArcGIS to operate the program (Power Point Slide 9-7).

> A. The computational requirements for running the software depend upon
> the speed and **level of analysis** desired by the user.
>
> B. For the **wind model**, all of the levels of analysis can be run on
> a personal computer.
>
> C. Because of the **extensive databases** contained within the HAZUS
> program, minimizing the size of the study area results in a faster
> analysis.
>
> D. Small communities can be run with relatively low computational
> power, whereas medium and large sized community analysis requires a
> faster processor, more RAM and a larger hard drive.

III. Looking at the **hurricane model capabilities**, there are three
     different user levels that are available (Power Point Slide 9-8).

> A. The first is the **beginning level** using the default data. The
> wind model selected in this type of analysis is the default
> probabilistic.
>
> 1\. For this analysis level, once the study area has been defined and
> the probabilistic modeling option has been selected, HAZUS will then
> run **multiple iterations of hurricane tracks** and rank them in order
> of the dollar loss to the study region.
>
> 2\. These storms are then classified as **10-year, 50-year,
> 100-year,** etc. storm, and the specific hurricane track that produced
> that storm in HAZUS is then specified. If a study area is analyzed
> multiple times, the storm tracks for the same return period storm will
> most likely differ between analyses.

IV. The building inventory used in the **Level 1 analysis** is the
    building data contained within the HAZUS databases.

> A. The **facilities and building classes** for all levels of analysis
> are residential, commercial, industrial and essential facilities.
>
> B. For **utility, transportation and high potential loss facilities**,
> no damage or loss estimation is done for any of the user level
> classifications.
>
> C. The **terrain databases, loss functions, damage functions, shelter
> requirements, and debris functions** all utilize the default data for
> a level 1 analysis.

[]{.mark}

V.  For the **Level 2 analysis**, this level allows the user to input
    conditions about the local area that may provide refined
    information.

> A. The wind model can look at a **specific storm track**, which could
> be that of an oncoming predicted storm, or a nearby recent storm
> shifted through the location of interest.
>
> B. For example, the information from **2004 Hurricane Ivan can be
> input** into the HAZUS model and then shifted to intersect the study
> region so that other communities can look at the potential impact that
> may be caused in their community that has actually hit the U.S. in
> recent years.
>
> C. Another option for the wind model is selecting an **historic
> storm**. This allows the user to look at the damage predicted, given
> today's state of construction, due to the landfall of a storm that has
> previously impacted the area of the study region.

VI. The **building inventory** may also be modified with user supplied
    information that may model more accurately changes to the building
    stock.

> A. The database would provide more accurate information for the study
> region, if there are discrepancies between the default HAZUS building
> databases and the local condition.
>
> B. The shelter requirements may also be modified in a Level 2 analysis
> to reflect up-to-date information about sheltering facilities in the
> study region.

VII. **Level 3 analysis** allows change in the terrain databases.
     Terrain data, if modified must be based upon expert-supplied data
     because of the significant effects that terrain has in calculating
     wind speeds at different heights.

VIII. When a **user defined storm** is selected, there are three choices
      of parameters that may be entered to describe the hurricane.

> A. Specify the hurricane's lateral movement, the storm's location at
> specific times may be entered, or a constant translational velocity
> (in mph) may be selected.
>
> B. Specify the size of the hurricane, the radius to maximum winds or
> radius to hurricane force winds may be specified. The radius to
> maximum winds is the distance from the eye of the hurricane to the eye
> wall, whereas the radius to hurricane force winds is the distance from
> the eye of the hurricane to the 75 mph wind band, the cutoff for
> classification of hurricane force winds.
>
> C. Specify hurricane wind speed, the maximum wind speed at 10 m may be
> used -- this is the standard height for measurement of wind speed, or
> to enter profile parameters. Selecting profile parameters selects a
> Level 3 analysis and requires the input of expert-supplied terrain
> data to calculate wind speeds at varying heights.

IX. There are four dominant **types of windstorms** in the United States
    (Power Point Slide 9-9).

> A. **Hurricanes**, which dominate the Gulf and Atlantic coasts;
>
> B. **Tornadoes**, which are largely unpredictable, localized storms
> that occur throughout the United States;
>
> C. **Thunderstorms and hail**, which occur throughout the United
> States; and
>
> D. **Extratropical cyclones**, which are prevalent along the West
> coast and New England.
>
> E. Of these wind hazards, HAZUS-MH currently addresses only
> hurricanes, which will be the subject of the remainder of this
> session.

X.  The HAZUS Wind Model Framework demonstrates the elements of each
    model component and the interconnection of the various models within
    the program (Power Point Slide 9-10). The first model component is
    the wind hazard.

XI. Various **hurricane analysis methods** are available within HAZUS.

    a.  The first mode is the **probabilistic analysis**, which
        statistically simulates storms based upon aggregated total
        dollar loss within the study region for specific return periods
        (50-, 100- year, etc.). These return periods are not based upon
        the return period of the wind speed, but rather upon the dollar
        loss for the study region itself.

    b.  The second mode is the **Scenario analysis**. This tool allows
        the user to input storm parameters and model the track,
        intensity and size of the hurricane through a specific region.
        This type of analysis can be useful for looking at a prediction
        of damage for a specific oncoming storm, or for forecasting a
        specific storm through the study region for planning purposes.

    c.  The third mode is the **Historical Storms analysis**, which uses
        storm parameters of actual past storms. The benefit of this type
        of analysis is that an historic storm can be modeled through the
        current building stock to provide an estimation of damage in
        today's dollars.

XII. To understand the physical damage that is caused by wind hazards,
     the **individual effects** must first be identified.

     a.  **Wind pressure** is the pressure that is exerted by the wind
         onto an object. Wind pressure can act inward or outward
         (suction).

     b.  **Windborne missiles** are objects that become airborne due to
         the characteristics of the wind field. Missiles include items
         such as wind gravel from adjacent buildings, debris generated
         from failures of adjacent buildings, and other unattached
         objects.

     c.  **Duration** of a storm is the time during which buildings are
         exposed to extreme winds. Comparing a fast moving storm and a
         slow moving storm of the same intensity, a slow moving storm is
         likely to cause more damage because structures are exposed to
         the effects of the wind for a longer duration.

     d.  **Rain** is a significant component of damage experienced
         during hurricanes. Once the building envelope, or building
         shell, has been breached by airborne debris missiles or damage
         due to wind pressures, rain will often enter the building and
         cause significant damage, especially to interior finishes.

     e.  Other effects of hurricanes that are not addressed in the HAZUS
         model at this time are the effects of storm surge, waves and
         atmospheric pressure changes.

XIII. The HAZUS Wind relies upon Geographical Information System (GIS).
      Information from the **2000 Census** is provided with the default
      databases. As with all models, the user should verify the accuracy
      of the databases on a level consistent with the desired accuracy
      of the results.

      a.  The **terrain database** contains information about tree
          height and density. This information is used in the tree blow
          down model and to calculate the ground surface roughness which
          affects the wind speed at varying heights.

      b.  The **building inventory** provides a detailed inventory of
          residential, commercial and industrial structures, as well as
          hospitals, shelters and police and fire stations. These
          databases provide facility locations and structural parameters
          that are used in the modeling phase. The resistance portion of
          the structural load vs. resistance model is based on the
          inventory of buildings supplied with the HAZUS database.

      c.  The **topography database** includes ground elevation
          information, which affects wind speed.

      d.  The **bathymetry database** provides ocean/gulf water depth,
          which affects a hurricane as it approaches land.

XIV. Once the mode of analysis and hazard is selected, each of the
     individual effects of that hazard is then investigated for an
     estimation of **physical damage**.

A. Physical [damage estimation includes:]{.mark}

> [1. **Pressure failure**,]{.mark}
>
> [2. **Building debris** impact failure]{.mark}
>
> [3. **Tree blow down** failure in the current HAZUS model]{.mark}.
>
> B. Future editions of HAZUS will address **transportation systems,
> utilities and agriculture systems**.

XV. The **damage estimation** is finally used to predict economic
    losses. A more detailed description of the loss model will be
    provided later in this session.

XVI. During the HAZUS model processing, built-in damage functions are
     used to calculate building damage based upon the modeled wind
     field. These damage functions have been pre-computed using the load
     vs. resistance structural damage methodology for a range of wind
     speeds. This flow chart demonstrates the steps taken to create the
     fast running damage functions that are contained within HAZUS
     (Power Point Slide 9-11).

> A. **Component Resistance**. The information about the specific
> building being investigated is calculated to create a resistance value
> for that **structure.**
>
> B. **Wind speed and direction** in open terrain and apply the terrain
> contained within the HAZUS database to estimate the effects of the
> load on buildings.
>
> C. The **resistance load** calculated for each of the buildings can be
> compared with the load value from the meteorological model, combined
> with the terrain model to produce information about the effects on the
> building. Debris impact is checked, as are failure of roof and walls.
>
> D. The program checks if any **windows or doors** have failed. This
> significantly impacts the final analysis because once the building
> envelope has been breached, positive internal pressures are able to
> build up, and the combined effects of suction pressure on the roof and
> a positive interior pressure, both pressure mechanisms are working to
> cause a roof blow-off failure.
>
> E. Checking to see if any windows or doors have failed, and if the
> answer is yes, then the **internal pressure coefficient** will change
> and it is necessary to compute the calculations.
>
> F. The previous steps are recalculated and reapplied to the calculated
> resistance values. Again, debris impact and tree blow-down are checked
> to see if a breach of the building envelope has occurred. If not, then
> once the number of simulations has been confirmed, the process ends.
> It is important that sufficient **time of wind effects** have been
> included.
>
> G. HAZUS uses iterations of the **wind field** over time to create the
> damage information. If enough iterations have not been computed, it
> again looks at the wind speed over time and continues the damage
> function process.

**Objective 9.6. Review available results and discuss importance to
different user groups**

Requirements:

This section provides an overview of the available model results and
discusses usage of the output data for different user types.

**Remarks:**

I.  The HAZUS **damage functions** are broken into five classifications
    (Power Point Slide 9-12). Built-in damage functions are provided for
    each damage state for the provided building classifications.
    **Residential damage** state definitions are:

> A. **No Damage or Very Minor Damage.** Little or no visible damage
> from the outside. No broken windows, or failed roof deck. Minimal loss
> of roof cover, with no or very limited water penetration.
>
> B. **Minor Damage.** Maximum of one broken window, door or garage
> door. Moderate roof cover loss that can be covered to prevent
> additional water entering the building. Marks or dents on walls
> requiring painting or patching for repair.
>
> C. **Moderate Damage.** Major roof cover damage, moderate window
> breakage. Minor roof sheathing failure. Some resulting damage to
> interior of building from water
>
> D. **Severe Damage.** Major window damage or roof sheathing loss.
> Major roof cover loss. Extensive damage to interior from water.
>
> E. **Destruction.** Complete roof failure and/or, failure of wall
> frame. Loss of more than 50% of roof sheathing.

II. The **damage curve** expresses the relationship between **wind
    speed** and **probability of damage** for each building
    classification and damage state (Power Point Slide 9-13). This
    particular damage function shows the probability of damage for one
    story wood framed single family homes.

    a.  Looking at the X axis, the peak gust wind speed varies. The
        **probability of damage,** plotted along the Y axis, ranges from
        zero to one, or zero to 100%.

    b.  The damage states 1-4 are plotted against these axes. This is a
        **probabilistic distribution** of expected damage for one story
        wood framed single family homes, ranging from no damage at low
        wind speeds to complete damage for each of the damage states at
        very high wind speeds.

    c.  The leftmost curve, the minor damage curve, **noticeable
        damage** can be viewed. Based upon the statistical distribution
        of the resistance calculated in the HAZUS model, approximately
        50% of homes will be subject to minor damage at a specific wind
        speed.

    d.  These **damage functions** are built into the HAZUS program for
        many specific residential, commercial and industrial building
        types. The classifications include construction type and
        specifics about the buildings, including number of stories,
        degree of building engineering and where they are single family
        or multifamily occupancy.

**Class Activity 1**: Students will be given a copy of the damage
function for one family, wood framed, single story homes (HANDOUT A).
Based upon this damage function, students should determine the
probability of damage for each of the damage states for a 100, 120 and
140 mph peak gust wind speed.

Assuming that the study region has [10,000]{.underline} one family, wood
framed, single story homes, what is the expected number of homes that
would be in each of the residential damage states for a 120 mph peak
gust wind speed?

Teacher's Guide: The vulnerability curves show the following probability
of damage for the damage states and wind speed shown below.

  -------------------- --------------------- ------------------------ ---------------------- ---------------------------
  [Wind                Probability of Damage                                                 
  Speed]{.underline}                                                                         

                       [Minor]{.underline}   [Moderate]{.underline}   [Severe]{.underline}   [Destruction]{.underline}

  100 mph                                                                                    

  120 mph                                                                                    

  140 mph                                                                                    
  -------------------- --------------------- ------------------------ ---------------------- ---------------------------

The expected number of homes in each of the damage states can be found
by multiplying the probability of damage by 10,000 (the number of homes
in the study region).

  ---------------- --------------------------- ---------------------------
  Damage State     Probability of Damage %     Estimated Number of Homes
                   (from above)                Experiencing Damage

  Minor                                        

  Moderate                                     

  Severe                                       

  Destruction                                  
  ---------------- --------------------------- ---------------------------

**Class Discussion**:

> For the 120 mph peak gust wind speed, the probabilities of damage are
> \_\_% for minor damage, \_\_% for moderate damage, \_\_% for severe
> damage and \_\_% for destruction. These probabilities add to more than
> 100% -- why?
>
> The probability of being in each damage state is independent of the
> other damage states. Therefore, the minor damage curve can be
> interpreted as the probability that \_\_% of the houses have at least
> minor damage.

III. Once the damage modeling is completed, the next step in building
     loss estimation through hazard models is the **computation of
     economic losses**.

> A. If we look at the damage to loss model slide, you can see how the
> information obtained from the damage model is applied to the loss
> model.
>
> 1\. The first step is the categorization of buildings, which is
> contained within the HAZUS system, the building characteristics
> including building cost and investigating the building damage state,
> we can look at two different types of costs for building replacement
> value.
>
> 2\. These are explicit cost and implicit costs.
>
> a\. Explicit, or direct, costs are items that must be repaired or
> replaced, including repairing or replacing roof covering and windows,
> etc.
>
> b.Implicit, or indirect, costs include the interior items that may be
> damaged due to rain. Those loss items are calculated using the cost
> indices contained within the HAZUS model.
>
> c\. Adding to that, the value of contents, the loss of use of the
> building and the repair time required results in direct economic loss
> to the structure.

**Class Activity 2**: Students will be given a copy of the building and
contents loss functions for one family, wood framed, single story homes
(HANDOUT B). Based upon this damage function, students are asked to
estimate the building and contents total loss/total value for buildings
in open terrain with a peak gust wind speed of 120 mph.

Assuming that the average building value is \$100,000 and the average
contents value is \$30,000; estimate the total building and contents
losses for the study region of 10,000 one family, wood framed, single
story homes.

[Teacher's Guide: The loss curves show the following total loss/total
value for 120 mph peak gust wind speed in open terrain:]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

  ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------
  [Loss Type]{.mark}           [Total Loss/Total Value]{.mark}

  [Building]{.mark}            []{.mark}

  [Contents]{.mark}            []{.mark}
  ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------

[]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

[The expected building and contents losses for the study region can be
found by multiplying the total loss/total value ratio by the
building/contents value and then multiplying by the total number of
homes in the study region (10,000).]{.mark}

[]{.mark}

  ------------------- ---------------- ---------------------- -----------------
  [Loss Type]{.mark}  [Total           [Estimated Loss per    [Estimated Loss
                      Loss/Total Value Building (Building     for Study Region
                      (from            Value \$100,000        (10,000
                      above)]{.mark}   Contents Value         homes)]{.mark}
                                       \$30,000)]{.mark}      

  [Building]{.mark}   []{.mark}        [\$]{.mark}            [\$]{.mark}

  [Contents]{.mark}   []{.mark}        [\$]{.mark}            [\$]{.mark}

  [Estimated Total                     [\$]{.mark}            [\$]{.mark}
  Losses]{.mark}                                              
  ------------------- ---------------- ---------------------- -----------------

**Objective 9.7 Discuss the application of HAZUS-MH Wind model results
for both planning and emergency management operations.**

Requirements:

This section discusses the application of output data in both the
planning process and in emergency management scenarios.

I.  Planning applications for **Operations -- Mitigation**

**Class Activity 3**: Students will be given a copy of the damage
function for fully mitigated one family, wood framed, single story homes
(HANDOUT C). Based upon this damage function, students should determine
the probability of damage for each of the damage states for a 120 mph
peak gust wind speed. Assuming that the study region has
[10,000]{.underline} one family, wood framed, single story homes, what
is the expected number of homes that would be in each of the residential
damage states for a 120 mph peak gust wind speed?

Given the HAZUS-MH Wind Loss Function for fully mitigated one family,
wood framed, single story homes, estimate the building and contents
total loss/total value for buildings in open terrain with a peak gust
wind speed of 120 mph.

Assuming that the average building value is \$100,000 and the average
contents value is \$30,000; what are the estimated total building and
contents losses for the study region of 10,000 one family, wood framed,
single story homes? Using the information from Activity 1, what is the
reduction in dollar loss for implementation of mitigation measures for
all of the homes?

Teacher's Guide: The probability of damage and number of homes damaged
are determined in the same manner as Class Activity 1. To compare
mitigated and unmitigated damage, students should subtract the mitigated
damage form the unmitigated damage (Activity 1).

  ---------------------- -------------- ---------------- --------------- ----------------
  [Damage State]{.mark}  [Probability   [Estimated       [Unmititgated   [Reduction in
                         of Damage      Number of Homes  Number of Homes Homes
                         %]{.mark}      Experiencing     Experiencing    Experiencing
                                        Damage]{.mark}   Damage          Damage]{.mark}
                                                         (Activity       
                                                         1)]{.mark}      

  [Minor]{.mark}         []{.mark}      []{.mark}        []{.mark}       []{.mark}

  [Moderate]{.mark}      []{.mark}      []{.mark}        []{.mark}       []{.mark}

  [Severe]{.mark}        []{.mark}      []{.mark}        []{.mark}       []{.mark}

  [Destruction]{.mark}   []{.mark}      []{.mark}        []{.mark}       []{.mark}
  ---------------------- -------------- ---------------- --------------- ----------------

[]{.mark}

[The expected building and contents losses for the study region are
determined in the same manner as Class Activity 2. To compare mitigated
and unmitigated losses, students should subtract the mitigated losses
from the unmitigated losses (Activity 2).]{.mark}

  ------------------- ---------------- ------------------ ---------------- -------------- --------------
  [Loss Type]{.mark}  [Total           [Estimated Loss    [Estimated Loss  [Unmitigated   [Reduction in
                      Loss/Total Value per                for Study Region Loss for Study Dollar
                      (from            Building]{.mark}   (10,000          Region         Loss]{.mark}
                      above)]{.mark}                      homes)]{.mark}   (Activity      
                                                                           2)]{.mark}     

  [Building]{.mark}   []{.mark}        [\$]{.mark}        [\$]{.mark}      [\$]{.mark}    [\$]{.mark}

  [Contents]{.mark}   []{.mark}        [\$]{.mark}        [\$]{.mark}      [\$]{.mark}    [\$]{.mark}

  [Estimated Total                     [\$]{.mark}        [\$]{.mark}      [\$]{.mark}    [\$]{.mark}
  Losses]{.mark}                                                                          
  ------------------- ---------------- ------------------ ---------------- -------------- --------------

[]{.mark}

[Class Discussion:]{.mark}

[How does the number of homes damaged in each damage state compare to
the values calculated in the first class exercise?]{.mark}

[How does the reduction in loss compare with the reduction in
damage?]{.mark}

[Which user groups (stakeholders) are most interested in the reduction
in damage and loss? Why?]{.mark}

II. Emergency management **Real-time Applications** for Operations

**Class Activity 4**: User-Defined Storm

The storm that will be modeled in this class exercise is Hurricane Ivan,
which passed over Baldwin County, Alabama in October 2004. The
Interactive Storm Track Definition allows you to approximately locate
the storm using the coordinate information shown in the lower left had
of the screen. This information was based on the National Weather
Service track prediction forecast as Hurricane Ivan was making landfall.
This class exercise requires students to input the storm track
information as the hurricane is making landfall -- materials: National
Weather Service Forecast, table of wind speeds to central pressure and
paper to write it storm track information (lat, long, time, radius to
hurricane force winds, wind speed and central pressure). Handout D

This slide shows the actual track of Hurricane Ivan input into the HAZUS
model and the results of the wind model. As you can see, the wind speeds
are highest on the right side of the hurricane, which is expected
because of the location in the advancing right front quadrant.

**Objective 9.6. Review available results and discuss importance to
different user groups**

Requirements:

This section provides an overview of the available model results and
discusses usage of the output data for different user types.

**Remarks:**

I.  **HAZUS-MH Model Characteristics**

> A. Storm track/intensity model
>
> B. Structural load vs. resistance model for various buildings
> (pressure)
>
> C. Wind-borne debris model
>
> D. Tree damage model
>
> E. Interconnection of damage models
>
> F. Computation of damage functions for specific building types
> (overall damage model)
>
> G. Loss model

**Objective 9.7. Discuss the application of HAZUS-MH Wind model results
for both planning and emergency management operations.**

Requirements:

This section discusses the application of output data in both the
planning process and in emergency management scenarios.

**[Remarks]{.mark}**

[]{.mark}

[I. **Output Reports and Mapping**]{.mark}

> []{.mark}
>
> [A. Building damage reports]{.mark}

[B. Loss reports]{.mark}

[C. Mapping damage and loss]{.mark}

[D. Shelters]{.mark}

[E. Essential Facilities]{.mark}

***References***

Cope, A. and Gurley, K., Pinelli, and Hamid. *"A Simulation Model for
Wind damage Predictions in Florida"*, [11th International Conference on
Wind Engineering]{.underline}, Texas Tech University, June 2003. pp.
1537-1546.

Cope, A., Filliben, J., Gurley, K., Pinelli, J.P., Simiu, E.,
Subramanian, C., and Zhang L., *"A Hurricane Damage Prediction Model for
Residential Structures"*, [9th International Conference on Applications
of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
(ICASP-9)]{.underline}, San Francisco, July 6-9, 2003.

FEMA (2003). *HAZUS --MH Wind Hazards User and Technical manuals*.
Washington D.C.

Goliger, Retief, and Nieman. *Wind damage/disaster model part 1: generic
algorithm*. Proceedings, [11th International Conference on Wind
Engineering]{.underline}, Texas Tech University, June 2003.pp.
1023-1030.

Goliger, Retief, and Nieman. *Wind damage/disaster model part 2:
application*. Proceedings, [11th International Conference on Wind
Engineering]{.underline}, Texas Tech University, June 2003.pp.
1031-1038.

**CLASS ACTIVITY 1**

Given the HAZUS-MH Wind Building Damage Function for one family, wood
framed, single story homes, estimate the probability of damage for each
of the four residential damage states (minor, moderate, severe,
destruction) for the following wind speeds:

  -------------------- --------------------- ------------------------ ---------------------- ---------------------------
  [Wind                Probability of Damage                                                 
  Speed]{.underline}                                                                         

                       [Minor]{.underline}   [Moderate]{.underline}   [Severe]{.underline}   [Destruction]{.underline}

  100 mph                                                                                    

  120 mph                                                                                    

  140 mph                                                                                    
  -------------------- --------------------- ------------------------ ---------------------- ---------------------------

Assuming that the study region has [10,000]{.underline} one family, wood
framed, single story homes, what is the expected number of homes that
would be in each of the residential damage states for a 120 mph peak
gust wind speed?

  ---------------- --------------------------- ---------------------------
  Damage State     Probability of Damage %     Estimated Number of Homes
                   (from above)                Experiencing Damage

  Minor                                        

  Moderate                                     

  Severe                                       

  Destruction                                  
  ---------------- --------------------------- ---------------------------

![](media/image1.png){width="9.359722222222222in"
height="6.999305555555556in"}

**CLASS ACTIVITY 2**

Given the HAZUS-MH Wind Loss Function for one family, wood framed,
single story homes, estimate the building and contents total loss/total
value for buildings in open terrain with a peak gust wind speed of 120
mph.

  ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------
  Loss Type                    Total Loss/Total Value

  Building                     

  Contents                     
  ---------------------------- ------------------------------------------

Assuming that the average building value is \$100,000 and the average
contents value is \$30,000; estimate the total building and contents
losses for the study region of 10,000 one family, wood framed, single
story homes.

  -------------- ---------------- ---------------------- -----------------
  Loss Type      Total Loss/Total Estimated Loss per     Estimated Loss
                 Value (from      Building (Building     for Study Region
                 above)           Value \$100,000        (10,000 homes)
                                  Contents Value         
                                  \$30,000)              

  Building                        \$                     \$

  Contents                        \$                     \$

  Estimated                       \$                     \$
  Total Losses                                           
  -------------- ---------------- ---------------------- -----------------

![](media/image2.png){width="9.370138888888889in"
height="7.003472222222222in"}

![](media/image3.png){width="9.353472222222223in"
height="6.997916666666667in"}

**CLASS ACTIVITY 3**

Given the HAZUS-MH Wind Building Damage Function for fully mitigated one
family, wood framed, single story homes, estimate the probability of
damage for each of the four residential damage states (minor, moderate,
severe, destruction) for a 120 mph peak gust wind speed.

Assuming that the study region has [10,000]{.underline} one family, wood
framed, single story homes, what is the expected number of homes that
would be in each of the residential damage states for this wind speed?
Using the information from Activity 1, what is the reduction in the
number of homes experiencing damage for each damage state?

  ------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------
  Damage State  Probability of Estimated      Unmititgated   Reduction in
                Damage %       Number of      Number of      Homes
                               Homes          Homes          Experiencing
                               Experiencing   Experiencing   Damage
                               Damage         Damage         
                                              (Activity 1)   

  Minor                                                      

  Moderate                                                   

  Severe                                                     

  Destruction                                                
  ------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------

Given the HAZUS-MH Wind Loss Function for fully mitigated one family,
wood framed, single story homes, estimate the building and contents
total loss/total value for buildings in open terrain with a peak gust
wind speed of 120 mph.

Assuming that the average building value is \$100,000 and the average
contents value is \$30,000; what are the estimated total building and
contents losses for the study region of 10,000 one family, wood framed,
single story homes? Using the information from Activity 2, what is the
reduction in dollar loss for implementation of mitigation measures for
all of the homes?

  ----------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------- ------------
  Loss Type   Total        Estimated    Estimated    Unmitigated   Reduction in
              Loss/Total   Loss per     Loss for     Loss for      Dollar Loss
              Value        Building     Study Region Study Region  
                                        (10,000      (Activity 2)  
                                        homes)                     

  Building                 \$           \$           \$            \$

  Contents                 \$           \$           \$            \$

  Estimated                \$           \$           \$            \$
  Total                                                            
  Losses                                                           
  ----------- ------------ ------------ ------------ ------------- ------------

![](media/image4.png){width="9.370138888888889in"
height="7.000694444444444in"}

![](media/image5.png){width="9.309722222222222in"
height="7.001388888888889in"}

![](media/image6.png){width="9.331944444444444in"
height="6.997916666666667in"}