Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 9/26/2006

**GAIN Report Number:** TH6097

TH6097

**Thailand**

**Grain and Feed**

**Weekly Rice Price Update**

**2006**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Gary Meyer, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy, Bangkok

**Prepared by:**

Ponnarong Prasertsri, Agricultural Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Export prices eased as local millers and traders released speculative
stocks. Also, rice exporters are optimistic about possible rice program
revisions in the wake of a military-led coup on September 19.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Bangkok \[TH1\]

\[TH\]

**Indicative Prices (Week Ending Sep. 25):**

  ------------- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------- -------
  Thailand:                                                                       
  Export (FOB)                                                                    
  Prices for                                                                      
  various                                                                         
  grades of                                                                       
  rice                                                                            
  (USD/M.T.)                                                                      

                Exporter                                                 Period   
                Observations                                             Avg.     

                #1             #2     #3     #4     #5     #6     #7     CUR.     PRV.

  F WR 100 B    543            \-     535    499    520    520    520    523      528

  WR 100 B      315            324    321    315    320    314    312    317      320

  PB 5%         310            311    320    320    318    313    308    314      315

  WR 5%         310            320    316    307    310    306    307    311      314

  WR 10%        305            315    312    304    305    302    302    306      310

  WR 15%        296            310    299    301    295    288    297    298      301

  WR 25%        280            297    280    298    272    273    292    285      287

  WR 35%        277            \-     \-     295    270    269    \-     278      279

  A 1 SUP       231            230    230    228    230    227    226    229      230

  A 1 SPEC      229            228    228    225    228    \-     224    227      228

  Source:                                                                         
  Average                                                                         
  actual prices                                                                   
  received from                                                                   
  exporters,                                                                      
  Exchange                                                                        
  rate: 37.5                                                                      
  baht/U.S.\$                                                                     
  ------------- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------- -------

**Market Tone**

Export prices for most grades of rice were offered lower as domestic
prices eased, particularly for white rice prices. Local rice traders and
millers are reportedly releasing speculative stocks of white rice due to
the concerns over the release of white rice intervention stocks of
around 1.7 million tons by the military-led Council for Democratic
Reform under Constitutional Monarchy (CDRM) who seized control of the
Thai government and declared martial law on September 19, 2006. The CDRM
is expected to maintain the rice price stabilization policy through the
intervention program. Exporters are optimistic about a possible program
revision to cushion the negative impact of high intervention prices on
Thai rice exports. The previous Government planned to push the
intervention prices of new intervention program to 12,000 baht/ton
(roughly U.S.\$ 320/MT) for fragrant paddy, which was 2,000 baht/ton
(roughly U.S.\$ 53/MT) higher than the previous year's program,
regardless of the current high market prices of fragrant rice.
Meanwhile, foreign buyers are reportedly hesitant to buy as they expect
a delay in this year's intervention program and, if so, new crops
harvested by the end of next month could cause prices to decline
further.

The following are the reported rice exports (as is basis)**:**

  ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ------------ ------------
  WEEK       QUANTITY    4-WK AVG    YEAR TO     YEAR AGO     YEAR TO DATE
  ENDING                             DATE                     AS % OF LAST
                                                              YEAR

             (MT)        (MT)        (TMT)       (TMT)        \%

  AUG 6      55,278      80,608      2,859       3,168        -9.8

  AUG 13     55,807      74,814      2,915       3,259        -10.6

  AUG 20     79,618      69,603      2,994       3,361        -10.9

  AUG 27     101,889     73,148      3,096       3,463        -10.6

  SEP 3      83,897      80,303      3,180       3,529        -9.9

  SEP 10     98,168      90,893      3,278       3,589        -8.7

  SEP 17     111,044     98,750      3,389       3,683        -8.0

  SEP 24     109,071     100,545     3,498       3,773        -7.3
  ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ------------ ------------

Note on data: Export figures since March 22, 2002, do not include
fragrant rice. The authority to report fragrant rice exports was moved
from the Thai Board of Trade to the Ministry of Commerce's Office of
Commodity Standards, which does not release official fragrant rice
export data. FAS/BKK will report only official export numbers from the
Board of Trade for non-fragrant and from the Office of Commodity
Standards for fragrant rice when available, but the reader should bear
in mind the difference between the data.

Unofficial exports (excluding fragrant rice) for Sep. 18-24, 2006
totaled 109,071 tons, down 1,974 tons from the previous week's total,
and up 8,526 tons from the four-week moving average of 100,545 tons.
Exports during Jan. 1 -- Sep. 24, 2006 totaled 3,498,212 tons, as
compared with 3,773,364 tons in the previous year.

According to the Department of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce,
total rice exports (including fragrant rice) during Jan. 1 -- Sep. 14,
2006, amounted to 5,091,165 tons, down slightly from 5,117,522 tons in
the previous year.

**Weekly Rice Sales**

Private registered rice export sales for the period of Sep. 4-8, Sep.
11-15, and\
Sep. 18-22, 2006 are as follows:

  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  Movement (MT)       Sep. 4-8          Sep. 11-15        Sep. 18-22

  weekly sales        115,901           115,061           82,685

  4 week sum          513,052           504,001           519,316

  4 week mov. avg.    128,263           126,000           129,829

  Total weekly sales  4,170,272         4,285,333         4,368,018
  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

End of Report.