# Forecasting eruptive behavior of large Alaskan volcanoes

C.R. Bacon, T.W. Sisson , and C.A. Neal

***Statement of Problem***---Potential losses from volcanic eruptions in
Alaska are increasing as the State's population, economic activity, and
aircraft traffic rise (1995 to 2005 population up 10.3%, passengers
through Ted Stevens International Airport in Anchorage up 15.7%). The
threat to aviation is acute, as North Pacific air routes pass across and
downwind of the Aleutian volcanic chain, and traffic to the contiguous
United States passes adjacent to the Wrangell Mountains volcanoes. The
frequency and magnitude of potential eruptions tend to increase with the
size of the volcanic center, whereas controls on eruptive style are best
evaluated from studies of the past activity at specific centers.
Volcanoes that are very large, those that have been particularly
explosive, and those close to and upwind of major population centers
merit focused study and monitoring. Volcanoes of Cook Inlet are close to
Anchorage and are targeted for intensive study by the Alaskan Volcano
Observatory, but some large caldera systems of the Aleutians, such as on
Unimak Island, and the very large volcanoes of the Wrangell Mountains
are also potential high-risk centers. Multidisciplinary geologic
mapping, dating, and geophysical studies of these would lead to improved
risk assessments and understanding of hazardous volcanic processes at
some of the largest convergent margin volcanoes in North America.

***Objectives***---Volcanoes with long histories or that occur in
clusters are the most likely to produce large, commonly explosive,
eruptions. Some may be of sufficient height or degree of internal
alteration that they may be prone to collapse and feed debris avalanches
and far-traveled lahars. Alaskan volcanoes that meet these criteria will
be identified on the basis of existing maps, eruptive chronologies, and
historical records. High-risk volcanoes that have not received
sufficiently detailed study will be targeted. Goals are to provide
chronologies and complete eruptive characterizations in order to develop
probabilistic models of volcano behavior, to identify potential for
unprecedented events, and to forecast realistic future scenarios and how
they would impact aviation, infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems.

***Work Strategy***---Existing knowledge of selected high-risk
volcano(es) will guide the approach, which will include a combination of
geologic mapping, field observations, sampling, geochronology, and rock
geochemistry. Results will be used to determine volumes, ages,
compositions, and pre-eruptive properties (e.g., temperature, storage
depth, gas content) of magmas, as well as eruptive styles and
depositional modes. Although reconnaissance geologic maps exist for most
Alaskan volcanoes, more detailed information is needed in order to
determine full eruptive histories. Radiocarbon and argon geochronology
are critical components of any such research. Magmatic processes and
storage conditions will be deduced from rock and mineral geochemistry.
Possible targets are (1) the volcanoes of Unimak Island (Wesdahl, Fisher
caldera, Shishaldin, Isanotski, and Roundtop) that have produced a wide
variety of large and small Holocene eruptions and several historical
eruptions; and (2) the Wrangell Mountains volcanoes that include Mount
Churchill, likely source of the widespread Holocene White River Ash, and
historically active Mount Wrangell.

***Relevance and Impact***---Outcomes of the proposed research will
influence decisions on monitoring levels and interpretations for
restless volcanoes, as well as on infrastructure and land use planning.
Two volcanoes of each group suggested for study are listed as \"high
threat\" in the National Volcano Early Warning System report (OFR
2005-1164). Scientific results will be relevant to understanding
magmatic processes and assessing hazards in volcanic arcs worldwide.

***Partnerships***---Collaboration with researchers and students at the
University of Alaska, Fairbanks, through AVO will continue and there
will be opportunities for topical studies by groups from other
universities. Analysis of potential volcanic impacts on ecosystems may
be undertaken by colleagues in other USGS disciplines. Alaska Native
Corporations and the National Park Service will be involved, depending
on locations of fieldwork.

**COASTAL HAZARDS IN ALASKA: MODELLING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE, COASTAL RETREAT, AND TSUNAMI**

**Statement of Problem**

Alaska's vast coastline is subject to an accelerating array of processes
hazardous to communities and infrastructure and ecosystems. This is
particularly true along the Arctic coast. No systematic monitoring and
forward modeling of erosion, retreat, tsunami inundation, and other
critical processes that impact the geology and biology of Alaska
coastlines has been done. Proper monitoring and assessment of likely
progression of processes such as erosion and retreat are required to
protect existing and future infrastructure.

**Objectives**

Initiate a broad-based coastal hazards program in Alaska. Evaluate what
portions of the coastline are vulnerable to what processes and to what
extent in support of a state-wide mitigation plan. Expand the base of
expertise in coastal processes in USGS resident in Alaska. In
particular, assess the current and likely future rates of erosion
related to secondary climate change (e.g. increased fetch and storm
surge, reduction in permafrost, etc.) in support of community and
infrastructure planning.

**Work Strategy**

1 -- create maps of coastal Alaska showing areas of bedrock, sediments,
permafrost, infrastructure, and relevant hydrography

2 -- conduct field studies to assess current rates of erosion; utilize
historical imagery, maps, and geological information to assess past
rates of change

3 -- model the rates of seacoast retreat expected under various
scenarios of sea level and ocean state change; focus on the Arctic coast

4 - inventory and assess other coastal hazards facing Alaskans such as
tsunami inundation (from transoceanic and local sources), storm surge,
etc.

5 -- evaluate potential changes of near-shore sediment regimes (amounts,
locations, flux) on marine and coastal ecosystems

**Relevance and Impact**

USGS has a statutory responsibility to mitigate geologic hazards.
Coastal hazards and vulnerability are underappreciated in Alaska and are
only increasing in response to climate change and development pressures.
Changes in coastal geology, sediment flux, and topography have profound
impacts on the biosphere as well. A systematic monitoring program will
facilitate sound development and re-development decisions.

**Partnerships**

ADNR, Local Boroughs and communities, DHSEM, FEMA, NOAA, USFWS, NPS,
BLM, USACE, UAFGI, ADNR

**CONTRIBUTION OF WRANGELL-ALEUTIAN ARC VOLCANOES TO THE ARCTIC
ATMOSPHERE AND ECOSYSTEMS**

**Statement of Problem**

More than 40 active volcanoes in Alaska contribute a largely unknown
quantity of sulfur dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide (a
greenhouse gas) and other minor constituents, including metals such as
Hg, to the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem in Alaska. Co-eruptive
inputs dwarf passive degassing, however the quantities of both processes
are essentially unconstrained for this active volcanic arc. Volcanic gas
emission can be a key eruption precursor, provide important clues to the
amount and character of mantle input to magmatic systems, and can also
play important roles in climate forcing and ecosystem pathways. For
Alaska, these are largely unknown except for a few volcanoes that have
had repeat measurements (of selected species).

**Objectives**

Determine a passive volcanic volatile budget (including primary gasses
and minor elements such as Hg) for the Aleutian arc. Assess the impacts
on the arctic atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem and place volcanic
sources in context with other sources (e.g. anthropogenic). Utilize
isotopic abundances to evaluate mantle contributions to magmatic systems
looking for along-arc variations as sub-arc crustal conditions change
from continental to oceanic settings.

**Work Strategy**

1 -- Conduct sampling and measurements of both gas and hydrothermal
water discharge data for all Aleutian volcanoes building on the initial
important but incomplete arc-wide survey done by ADGGS in the 1980s.
Utilize modern sampling and flux measurements techniques such as
mini-spectrometers and other ground and airborne instruments to acquire
a full suite of data.

2 -- Work with partners at NASA and NOAA to utilize new satellite
platform sensors to begin systematic monitoring of volcanic gas
emissions (e.g. OMI sensor looking at SO2)

3 -- Conduct field studies to determine the levels of Hg liberated by
volcanic degassing and eruptions at selected volcanoes; investigate the
fate of Hg in the terrestrial ecosystem.

4 -- Using straightforward methods of detecting and measuring SO2 flux,
evaluate and improve the method of calculating Hg and other trace
element compositions using the SO2 ratio method.

**Relevance and Impact**

Baseline volatile emissions from one of the most active volcanic arcs on
the planet will contribute to a global understanding of the role of both
passive and active volcanic emissions on the atmosphere and biosphere.
The role of volcanic emissions in human and animal health in Alaska is
essentially unknown and cannot be evaluated against more
well-constrained anthropogenic sources. The data set will also enable
volcano scientists to evaluate changes as possible precursors to
volcanic unrest and to investigate volatile abundances and behavior in
Aleutian magmatic systems.

**Partnerships**

NOAA, NCAR, UAFGI, USFWS, NPS, IAVCEI, ADNR, EPA

**Geologic Hazards of the Cook Inlet Region, Alaska**

**Statement of Problem:** Roughly two-thirds of Alaska's population and
infrastructure are located in the Cook Inlet region of south-central
Alaska, an area subject to a multitude of geologic hazards, including
earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, flooding, severe storms, and
snow avalanches. Presently, information about these hazards is available
only with respect to the specific type of hazard and is not integrated
spatially to provide a comprehensive overview of all hazards that may
pose a risk to all or parts of the Cook Inlet region. This makes the
task of risk assessment and disaster mitigation difficult.

Map based hazard assessments have become the standard means of
communicating information about the extent and degree of a specific
hazard; however, no uniform or systematic approach to developing hazard
maps has been employed in USGS hazard studies. In Alaska, seismic hazard
maps are commonly used, but modern geologic and hydrologic hazards
studies by the USGS are just beginning. The successful completion of
these studies, and the incorporation of seismic data into uniform, GIS
based, hazard mapping protocols and techniques would accommodate the
synthesis of various types of hazard information and deliver hazard maps
in digital format of greater utility to end users.

**Objectives:**

-   Develop GIS based geologic hazard mapping and display techniques and
    a common hazard mapping protocol.

-   Integrate various types of hazard information into a common GIS
    format.

-   Develop a GIS based synthesis of geologic hazards for the Cook Inlet
    region.

-   Use the results of this work to assist in developing an appropriate
    mitigation strategy and risk assessment for the region that
    incorporates all geologic hazards.

**Work Strategy:** This project will require building a team of
scientists from various programs and disciplines who can address
geologic hazards of the Cook Inlet region. The project has a strong GIS
component and would require one or more GIS technicians. The project
could proceed with or without field studies, although targeted field
work could answer some specific questions and unknowns regarding the
frequency and magnitude of some hazards. Recent advances in GIS
technology and web-based delivery of mapping products makes it possible
to design and implement a new procedure for producing comprehensive,
locally relevant, highly understandable hazard maps.

**Relevance and Impact:** An important mission of the USGS is to
evaluate geologic and hydrologic hazards, to produce timely and
up-to-date-assessments, and to apply the results of hazards studies to
mitigation planning. It is also important to provide short-term
forecasts of geologic and hydrologic phenomena and to rapidly evaluate
their potential effects. The proposed research will compliment ongoing
hazards research in the Alaska Science Center as well as other USGS
hazards mapping studies outside of Alaska. The research and its products
also will be useful during times when potentially hazardous geologic and
hydrologic phenomena are anticipated.

**Partnerships:**

-   USGS Partnerships: Volcano Hazards Program, Earthquake Program,
    Water Resources Discipline, Coastal and Marine Geology, Landslide
    Hazards Program

-   State Partnerships: Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical
    Surveys, Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency
    Management

-   Other Federal Partnerships: National Park Service, Bureau of Land
    Management, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, NOAA-West Coast & Alaska
    Tsunami Warning Center

**LAKE CORING AS AN INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH TOOL IN ALASKA**

**Statement of Problem**

The glacial landscape over much of Alaska is marked by hundreds of lakes
which are potential repositories of geological, chemical, and biological
data that go back hundreds to many thousands of years. Lake-bottom
sediments contain important stratigraphic records that are of interest
to a variety of science disciplines. A single lake core contains for
example, information about ash fall history, fish habitat, climate
change, vegetation history, fire history, and water quality for that
particular region. Lake-bottom sediments often contain sufficient
materials for radiometric dating (14C and Pb210) so that detailed age
models can be developed and significant events can be dated. Lake coring
is a cost efficient approach for the multidisciplinary study prehistoric
events recorded by lacustrine deposits. At present, the Alaska Science
Center has limited lake coring expertise and lacks the equipment or
facilities necessary for lake coring research and previous and ongoing
studies must rely on collaboration with other agencies or universities.

**Objectives**

Develop a lake coring program in Alaska. This would include equipment,
expertise, and a facility for the storage and analysis of lake cores. A
variety of researchers from all over the nation and across disciplines
could tap into this resource rather than shipping their gear and
supplies to Alaska each year and shipping cores out of the state for
analysis. The USGS would serve as a regional hub for the long-term
storage of lake sediment cores and a place where researchers could
perform routine analyses and sampling.

**Work Strategy**

-   Designate a facility, purchase equipment (this is not a big ticket
    item) and train a small team of people (1 or 2) to assist with
    coring, basic core analysis and sampling, maintain equipment and
    catalog/archive core data.

-   Convene a team of scientists from various programs and disciplines
    to develop interdisciplinary coring projects

-   Develop a website showing core information and encouraging
    collaborative research.

**Relevance and Impact**

Our ability to understand current events and trends (e.g. climate, fish
abundances, vegetation etc.) is significantly facilitated by
understanding these processes over a broad time period and lake records
provide such a time frame for study. Where event frequency is of
importance, there is no better repository than lake sediment for
recording such information (e.g. how often has ash fallen on Anchorage
in the past?).

Each year scientists from all over the nation come to Alaska to do
research where lake coring is their principal tool. It is to the
advantage of the USGS to encourage collaborative research with these
scientists working in our state.

**Partnerships**

NPS, FWS, AKFG, university faculty and students

**Tsunami generation and hazards associated with submarine and subaerial
mass flows in Alaska**

**Statement of Problem:** Mass flows of unconsolidated sediment and rock
debris are produced in a variety of geologic settings in Alaska. Where
these flows enter or initiate in the sea they may constitute source
processes for tsunamis. Mass-flow initiated tsunami hazards have not
been systematically evaluated for coastal areas of Alaska where both
subaerial and submarine mass flows have developed in the past or may
develop in the future. Because submarine and subaerial mass flows occur
frequently and their volumes may be large, they constitute important
geologic hazards for Alaska. Depending on their source region, tsunamis
initiated by mass flows have the potential to strike coastlines around
the Pacific Rim.

**Objectives:**

-   Systematically evaluate mass flow potential along the Alaskan
    coastline using existing geologic data from mapping studies and
    hazard assessments.

-   Develop a catalog of mass-flow types, volumes, run out, and trigger
    mechanisms and evaluate where and how often mass flows occur, their
    tsunamigenic potential, and hazards posed.

-   Select a few key areas for detailed study where the combination of
    mass-flow potential, tsunami hazard, and societal risk are
    particularly high.

-   Perform numerical modeling analyses of mass-flow initiated tsunamis
    to evaluate wave properties and characterize potential hazards.

**Work Strategy:** This project will move forward in a series of phases.
[Phase 1]{.underline} will entail background research, evaluation of
existing data, and development of a catalog of mass-flow types and their
tsunamigenic potential. [Phase 2]{.underline} will entail field studies
of selected areas to better evaluate and characterize potentially
tsunamigenic mass flows, and to evaluate field evidence for mass-flow
initiated tsunami inundation. [Phase 3]{.underline} will be focused on
numerical modeling and hazard assessment of the areas studied in Phase
2.

**Relevance and Impact:** Recent tsunami disasters have caused many
scientists and public officials to rethink present capabilities to
understand, forecast and mitigate the effects of potential future
tsunamis. Most studies of recent events have been focused on earthquake
generated tsunamis even though it has been shown that landslides played
a key role, if not the primary role, in tsunami generation. Thus, it
behooves tsunami scientists working in Alaska to develop a greater
understanding of where, how, and how often submarine and subaerial mass
flows and landslides initiate tsunamis, and what their potential hazards
might be. Because extensive segments of the Alaskan coastline are along
the North Pacific Ocean, mass-flow initiated tsunamis in Alaska have the
potential to reach coastlines around the Pacific Rim making this an
international as well as a national hazard.

**Partnerships:**

-   USGS Partnerships: Volcano Hazards Program, Coastal and Marine
    Geology, Landslide Hazards Program

-   State Partnerships: Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical
    Surveys, Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency
    Management

-   Other Federal Partnerships: National Park Service, Bureau of Land
    Management, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, NOAA-West Coast & Alaska
    Tsunami Warning Center

**REMOTE SENSING AND DATA VISUALIZATION IN SUPPORT OF HAZARD AND
ECOSYSTEM MONITORING IN ALASKA**

**Statement of Problem**

Alaska is a vast, largely roadless region, with a thinly dispersed
network of seismic stations, water gages, weather stations and similar
critical data-gathering points.

Identification of slow (climate change) and rapid (flooding, volcanic
eruption) changes to the landscape of Alaska are poorly served by the
existing network. Remotely sensed data sets are the only viable means to
characterize large areas of Alaska in support of regional scale studies
of landscape processes, ecosystem response to climate change; changing
ice cover, and systematic evaluation of dynamic processes such as
volcanism, co-seismic deformation. A large array of existing and
potentially useful remote geophysical, geodesic and imagery tools can be
brought to bear on these issues, minimizing the need for costly,
dangerous, logistically difficult and invasive establishment of data
stations.

**Objectives**

Maximize the application of remotely sensed imagery and dataset to
address key landscape problems in Alaska. Acquire new airborne
geophysical data for key regions of the state. Develop a web-based,
user-friendly image server that is available to cooperators and the
public. Enhance expertise resident in Alaska in the areas of GIS,
geospatial data analysis, remote sensing, airborne geophysics, and data
visualization.

**Work Strategy**

1 -- Target areas for long-term monitoring to address specific questions
(e.g. glacial cover and mass balance, vegetation index, tectonic and
volcanic deformation)

2 -- Use geologic, biologic, geophysical and imagery expertise to assess
available imagery, data sets and platforms; develop an efficient catalog
and delivery system for Landsat, MODIS, AVHRR, IKONOS, Quickbird, INSAR
and similar data sets.

3\) - Identify priority areas for acquisition of new airborne and
satellite geophysical and geodesic surveys and imagery; develop a plan
to acquire these data.

**Relevance and Impact**

USGS is the premier earth science data source for the nation. Our
ability to predict changes to the landscape and its ecosystems are
directly proportionate to the quality and quantity available for
modeling. change related to DOI and other federal and state agencies and
academic researches will utilize this data resource for fundamental
scientific investigations and long term monitoring and change analysis.

**Partnerships**

USFWS, NPS, BLM, USACE, UAFGI, ADNR

**RISK AND LOSS ANALYSIS FOR THE NEXT GREAT EARTHQUAKE AND VOLCANIC
ERUPTION IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA**

**Statement of Problem**

Alaska will suffer another major damaging earthquake that strikes the
heart of the state's population and infrastructure in the south-central
part of the state. No comprehensive assessments of likely impacts,
vulnerabilities (risk), and potential losses have been prepared in
support of long-term mitigation efforts. USGS has completed or has in
progress a number of hazard assessment pieces of this program but true,
quantitative risk analysis is lacking.

**Objectives**

Reduce the impacts of future earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in
south-central Alaska. Identify areas to focus scarce mitigation
resources and conduct a public education campaign with the results.

**Work Strategy**

1 -- Develop event scenarios including based on geologic understanding
of the earthquake and eruption history of the region.

2 -- Accumulate necessary data to conduct a vulnerability assessment and
loss analysis.

3 - Identify areas to focus scarce mitigation resources and conduct a
public education campaign with the results.

4 -- Develop educational materials and use modern data visualization
techniques to display multi-hazard assessment information in a variety
of formats.

**Relevance and Impact**

USGS has a statutory responsibility to mitigate geologic hazards. Alaska
is prone to damaging earthquakes and eruptions and risk assessments can
support effective mitigation programs. South-central Alaska is an
excellent site for mutli-hazard integration in the assessment and risk
analysis approach. Increasingly, USGS is asked to facilitate and inform
quantitative risk assessments to support planning and mitigation;
south-central Alaska because of its growth, development potential, and
key infrastructure is an excellent place to develop such skillsets and
precedents across program boundaries with GD.

**Partnerships**

MOA, DHSEM, FEMA, Local Boroughs, UAA Institute for Social and Economic
Research, State of Alaska, Business community, DOD, USCG, ADNR, oil and
gas industry, Ted Stevens airport and other transportation nodes.

**SUBMARINE TECTONICS AND VOLCANISM IN ALASKA**

**Statement of Problem**

The seafloor around Alaska remains largely unexplored terrain. Recent
NSF and NOAA and other cruises have made impressive discoveries of
volcanic, tectonic, and submarine ecosystem novelties that all
demonstrate the wealth of fundamental science that remains to be done on
the seafloor. In addition, an adequate understanding of the seafloor has
a strong influence on hazard assessment, investigations of active
tectonics in a complex plate boundary zone, and magmatic processes at
subduction volcanoes. USGS has limited resident expertise in Alaska and
has had few opportunities to leverage marine geology and geophysics work
in the northern Pacific and surrounding waters.

**Objectives**

Enhance resident expertise in marine geology in Alaska. Contribute to
ongoing multi-agency and academic efforts to discover and characterize
submarine volcanic and tectonic features along the Aleutian arc.

**Work Strategy**

1 -- participate in and contribute to the planning and execution of
Aleutian area cruises that acquire seafloor data

2 -- develop modern maps of the seafloor in collaboration with NOAA and
others and produce an inventory and analysis of submarine volcanoes

3 -- target key submarine features for detailed studies that may involve
submersibles and other techniques

4 -- describe and assess the hazards posed by submarine volcanoes in
North Pacific waters

**Relevance and Impact**

The ocean environment and seafloor represent a large and important
component of the earth's surface that is still known only at a
reconnaissance level throughout most of Alaska's waters. Submarine
geologic features and processes can have profound impacts on marine
ecosystems, coastal environments, and human infrastructure. Expanded
knowledge of the geology of the seafloor contributes to hazard
evaluations, understanding of regional tectonics and evolution of the
earth's crust.

**Partnerships**

USCG, NSF, Universities, NOAA, USFWS, UAFGI, Shipping companies,
fisheries interests

# The mud volcanoes of the Copper River basin, Alaska

**Statement of Problem**---Mud volcanoes are not common worldwide, and
particularly not in North America. They are typically associated with
petroleum and gas deposits, or, more rarely, with a volcanic system. In
the Copper River basin of eastern Alaska, two genetically different
clusters of classic mud volcanoes occur within 50 km (30 mi) of one
another. They have been scientifically investigated only at a
reconnaissance level. The Tolsona Group is seemingly associated with
either Tertiary or Mezosoic coal and gas deposits currently being
explored for economic potential, and produces a gas component of \>99%
methane and \<1% CO~2~. The Klawasi Group, located across a terrane
boundary structure (Taral Fault, inferred), is in close proximity to
three large stratovolcanoes---Drum, Sanford, and Wrangell---and produces
\>99% CO~2~ and \<1% methane. Both sets of mud volcanoes are presently,
and have been historically, active. The Klawasi Group lies within the
Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve on Ahtna Native conveyed
land (i.e. an inholding); the Tolsona group lie on Ahtna land west of
the Park. Both groups of mud volcanoes have affected local
geomorphology, damaged extensive areas of vegetation, and one of the
Klawasi Group produces enough water flow (since 1997) to significantly
impact local streams, which drain into the Copper River, source of the
one of Alaska's most revered salmon runs. Moreover, the presence of
deceased wildlife near one of the more active Klawasi mud volcanoes
indicates that CO~2~ emissions pose a significant local hazard, at least
seasonally. Little to nothing is known of the affect mud volcanism has
had on local flora and fauna, or to the hydrologic system at either
group.

**Objectives**---This study would aim to fully characterize the past and
present activity; determine the origin, chemistry, and flux of the gas,
mud and hydrocarbons; evaluate potential hazards; establish the regional
context and significance of the two systems; and then compare the two
groups to other worldwide occurrences of mud volcanoes. Affects on
fauna, flora, and the hydrologic system would also be evaluated.

**Work Strategy**---This project could bring together expertise from
multiple subdisciplines in several agencies including an organic
geochemist (hydrocarbon, water and mud chemistry), gas geochemist (gas
chemistry and isotopic profile), hydrologist (stream flow), botanist
(affects to vegetation), biologist (affects to fish and other fauna),
GIS specialist (map production), and volcanologist. All fieldwork would
be coordinated through the NPS and Ahtna Native Corporation. This is a
project that could be conducted in association with other
multidisciplinary geological studies in the Wrangell-St. Elias National
Park.

**Relevance and Impact**---Work in and around National Parks tends to be
high profile. This project would result in a better understanding of the
genesis of mud volcanoes in general, and those of the Copper River basin
in particular, including:

\--determining the nature and origin of hydrocarbons produced by the mud
volcanoes would be useful in interpreting the nature of the Tertiary and
Mezosoic sections that underlie the Copper River Basin, which perhaps
could lead to a better understanding of the boundary between the
Peninsular and Wrangellia tectonic terranes that lies concealed beneath
the Copper River basin.

\--potentially useful to resource developers exploring the area west of
Glennallen

\--would produce a publication for Park visitors and locals interested
in the these unusual geologic features.

\--would provide a hazard assessment to the NPS, and establish a
monitoring program

\--would serve the local community by involving Prince William Sound
Community College (PWSCC) students and instructors (a course on mud
volcanoes is currently taught)

**Potential Partnerships**---USGS/VHP/BRD/WR, USFWS, Ahtna Native
Corporation; NPS, PWSCC, Rutter and Wilbanks (resource development
company)

**GLACIER-VOLCANO INTERACTIONS IN ALASKA**

**Statement of Problem**

In Alaska, at least 30 of the more than 80 volcanic centers of Holocene
age are currently mantled by some amount of perennial snow and glacial
ice. More than half of these volcanoes have been active historically
(\~1750 -- present). Alaska provides a valuable laboratory in which to
examine volcano-ice interactions. Documented historical eruptions and
episodes of unrest illustrate a wide range of volcano-ice interaction
processes. Recent examples of the influence of volcanic activity on
glaciers in Alaska has ranged from the explosive beheading of the Drift
River Glacier and lahars during the 1989-1990 Redoubt eruption, to
supra- and subglacial lava flows at Veniaminof in 1984 and 1993, to
subglacial outbursts of water and debris flows on Spurr in 2004 and
Fourpeaked in 2006.

**Objectives**

Mitigate impacts of future volcanic eruptions at glacier-clad volcanoes
in Alaska by completing a comprehensive examination of snow and
ice-related volcano hazards along the Wrangell-Aleutian arc. Identify
areas to focus detailed studies and modeling of potential lahar
inundation. Utilize recent volcano-ice interactions (e.g. Spurr 2004,
Chiginagak, 2004, Fourpeaked, 2006) to investigate the fundamental
processes of how ice behaves on active volcanoes, and how glacial cover
affects volcanic processes.

**Work Strategy**

1.  Create maps using satellite and field observations showing current
    extent of glaciers on each volcano.

2.  Evaluate recent and historical changes in glacier extent and volume
    by comparing current ice extent to historical maps and images and
    digital elevation models, where possible, utilizing new remotely
    sensed data sets.

3.  Inventory and assess potential volcano-ice hazards at each volcano

4.  At key volcanoes, conduct geological studies of the pre-historic
    record of activity at these volcanoes with a focus on the record of
    long-term interaction of ice and volcanic activity in the region.

**Relevance and Impact**

Glacier cover is an important component of hazard at volcanoes and can
be a key indicator of climate change. The interaction of glaciers and
volcanoes can have a profound impact on host ecosystems (including
significant downstream and even offshore effects). In addition to a
better understanding of the breadth of hazard issues in Alaska, case
studies of classic volcano-glacier interaction can provide excellent
input for new modeling of glacier growth and development, modification,
and impacts of glacier change on biological systems.

**Partnerships**

UAFGI, ADNR, NPS, USFWS, BLM, GLIMS, NASA

**Alaska mineral deposit models: Assessing the Nation's supply of
unconventional and strategic resources**

Statement of Problem

The US has a high import reliance on numerous critical and strategic
mineral commodities. Domestic sources of minerals are limited, and a
large part of the Nation\'s undiscovered supply is likely to be found in
Alaska - a vast, largely roadless region where our knowledge of geology
and resource potential lags behind many third-world countries.

Alaska's geographic separation provides it with a geology unique within
the United States. As a result, it contains mineral resources unique to
its landscape, and in many cases, unique in the Nation.

Alaska contains known or potential resources of commodities (rare earth
elements, indium, thorium, tin, titanium, platinum-group elements etc.)
rarely found in the rest of the US, for which the US is heavily
dependent on foreign imports, and which are in increasing demand in
electronic, alternative energy, nanotechnology, biotechnology and other
high tech industries.

Accurate mineral deposit models reflecting the unique conditions in
Alaska would allow a much more accurate assessment of mineral potential,
and help ensure a consistent, reliable supply of minerals required for
the Nation's effective economic functioning.

Objectives

Develop a suite of descriptive and grade-and-tonnage mineral deposit
models which accurately characterize the geologic conditions, deposit
types and variables in Alaska.

Work Strategy

Conduct research on the spatial occurrence, geologic settings,
structural and lithologic controls, and processes of formation for
deposit types in Alaska that contain unconventional resources Develop a
series of descriptive and grade- and tonnage mineral deposit models that
better reflect the mineral endowment of Alaska deposits. Assess the
potential for undiscovered unconventional, strategic, and critical
minerals across Alaska.

Relevance and Impact

Alaska is the only state in which world-class deposits are still being
discovered at the surface but its subsurface endowment is virtually
unknown. Increasing global competition for resources has already turned
interest to Alaska: mineral exploration expenditures in Alaska increased
639% between 2003 and 2006.

Mineral deposit models that accurately identify the features needed to
assess deposit types and variants unique to Alaska will contribute to
the efficient and effective evaluation of the National mineral
inventory.

Partnerships

State of Alaska DNR; University of Alaska; Alaska Native Corporations;
private sector.

**ALASKA: GEOLOGIC MAPS FROM REMOTELY SENSED DATA**

Statement of Problem

Rapid development of emerging economies such as China is putting an
increasing burden on the global supply of earth-derived resources.
Domestic sources of energy and mineral are limited, and a large part of
the Nation\'s undiscovered domestic supplies are likely to be found and
extractable in Alaska, a vast, largely roadless region where our
knowledge of framework geology and resource potential lags behind many
third-world countries.

Remotely sensed data sets are the only viable means to characterize
large areas of Alaska rapidly and at regional scales.

A large array of existing remotely sensed geophysical, geodesic and
imagery tools can be integrated via spatial analysis (GIS) to produce
and upgrade geologic maps that provide the basis for regional
assessments and land plans.

These digital, quantitative, predictive, and testable maps can be used
to prioritize areas requiring more costly, dangerous, and logistically
difficult on-the-ground mapping.

Objectives

Develop the capability to maximize use of remotely sensed data,
including geophysics, for geologic mapping in Arctic and sub arctic
environments, to produce modern, efficiently generated digital geologic
maps.

Work Strategy

1\) Identify a few key, climatically and physiographically
representative, geologically diverse areas of the state. 2) Evaluate
procedures, and integrative / analytic methods currently in use in other
high-latitude regions; select and adapt methods appropriate to Alaska.
3) Identify remotely sensed (satellite and airborne) geodesic,
geophysical, and imagery data which are available or can be acquired
over Alaska. 4) Design a protocol for integrating data types; develop
algorithms for extracting bedrock, surficial, and structural geologic as
well as traditional hydrologic and vegetative information.

Relevance and Impact

Resource and hazard assessments for the Nation are a primary function of
the USGS and are increasingly in demand for informed land use decisions.
A critical factor in producing any assessment is the availability a
geologic map accurately portraying the distribution and relationship of
geologic units and structures. Classic, ground-based geologic mapping at
1:63,360 to 1:250,000 scales is a slow, high-cost operation. In Alaska,
geologic maps at these scales are often absent, reconnaissance in
nature, old, or limited in their usefulness.

Remote (airborne and satellite) tools provide a 21^st^ century way to
accelerate the production and quality of geologic maps and provide the
critical geologic basis which grounds all land-use decision making.

Partnerships

Geol. Survey of Canada, AK Div. Geol. Geophys. Surveys, AK Geographic
Data Committee, NASA, Univ. of AK Geophysical Institute

CLIMATE CONTROLS ON MINERAL DEPOSIT WEATHERING

Statement of Problem

The USGS and other public agencies are increasingly being asked to
predict "the environmental consequences" of potential mineral resource
development. These consequences are a unique combination of the mineral
deposit type being developed and the ecosystem / landscape/ hydrologic
dynamics of the area in which development occurs.

Mineral deposits, in contrast to energy sources, include dozens of
commodities, valued for, and having a huge range of elemental,
molecular, geochemical, and physical properties

The ability to differentiate between natural signatures of mineral
weathering and human-induced changes to those signatures is critical to
informed land use decision-making.

Basic information on the variability of natural weathering of deposits
is a critical first step to being able to develop accurate predictive
models of development consequences.

Objectives

Understand the range of variability in the natural weathering expression
of mineral deposits in different climate regimes; identify the features
and processes that control this variability. Define the critical data
types needed to accurately predict development effects; develop a
template/ method to estimate the potential effects of disturbance of a
given deposit type in any particular climate.

Work Strategy

1 --Identify and prioritize types of mineral deposits common and likely
to be developed in the US (e.g. porphyry copper-molybdenum, polymetallic
volcanogenic massive sulfides, etc.) for which undisturbed examples are
known in a range of climates (boreal forest, tundra, coastal rainforest,
Arctic desert etc.).

2\) Define a sampling protocol and strategy for water, soil, vegetation,
stream sediments, rocks, and other media across the complete proximal to
distal transition over the deposits.

3\) Collect data, and synthesize to develop quantitative
geoenvironmental models for individual deposit types and predictive
templates for estimating disturbance impact.

Relevance and Impact

Mineral exploration activity is increasing worldwide; Alaska is a
particular focus of current efforts, and represents a wide range of
temperate to Arctic climates. The window of opportunity to characterize
deposits in their natural state will be limited as development and
production efforts intensify.

As US Federal and State governments move towards more quantitative land
planning measures, and more detailed review of mining plans, unbiased
and accurate scientific information on undisturbed deposits will be
vital to a sound decision-making process.

Partnerships

USFS, BLM, Univ. of AK, NPS, AK DNR

**CLIMATE CHANGE Baselines and geospatial presentation of change**

**Problem**: As of now, it might be controversial to link specific
changes in the landscape to shifts in climate except for coastal
erosion, permafrost melting, glacial retreat, and changes in vegetation
here in Alaska. However, without baselines we will not be able to
systematically document changes over broad areas, and we should be
looking ahead towards the Nation\'s need. As climate change progresses,
the Nation will be faced with many complex and possibly urgent
questions. A map-based data delivery system brings the information
\"home\" to the user (what\'s happening in my state, the bay where I
fish, the agricultural area where my food comes from, my favorite
National Park).

**Objective:** Establish a baseline status for elements of the landscape
(hydrologic, biologic, geologic) so that effects of climate change can
be documented systematically over long periods. Is there any entity that
can represent documented impacts of climate change in a geospatial
framework as clearly as we can? Others may be able to show remote
sensing images, but we can integrate ground-based data sets with
remotely sensed data to provide a comprehensive picture for the Nation.

**Work Strategy:** What improvements to existing data gathering programs
could meet this need (e.g., improvement of stream gauge network in
Alaska)? What critical datasets should be assembled now? What will
society want to know using our data sets?

**Relevance/Impact:** Public and governmental institutions and the
public at large would have access to direct documentation of changes in
local, regional, and national landscapes. The information would
underscore the reality of landscape change, provide a tool for
understanding the nature and patterns of change, and aid decisionmaking
processes.

**Partnerships:** State geological surveys, state land management
agencies, federal land management agencies, municipalities, and other
institutional entities.

**ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FORECASTING OF MINERALS SUPPLY ISSUES:**

**Problem**: Although study of the political and economic context of the
world flow of energy products is a well-established field, such a field
is not so well-developed for metallic and industrial minerals. USGS is
the natural home for such a function. USGS documents supply, demand, and
flow of metallic and non metallic commodities globally (the Minerals
Information Team, MIT).

**Objective:** The US needs the capability to forecast potential supply
shortages or interruptions of critical mineral commodities.

**Work Strategy:** With the addition of a group capable of economic
analysis, the USGS could use the work of MIT and the traditional MRP to
develop a forecasting capability.

**Relevance/Impact:** Forecasts would be used by the federal government
(e.g., Departments of State, Defense, Treasury) and industry to guide
short- and long-range planning and policy.

**Partnerships:** The forecasting capability could be developed in
partnership with an academic research institution.

Biogeochemical processes and ecosystem function in Alaska.

**Problem:**

National scale geochemical projects such as Surveys and Analysis,
Background and Baselines, and the National Water Quality Assessment have
made progress in delineating geochemical distribution, and background
and baseline concentrations of potentially toxic and non-toxic elements.
These efforts provide valuable information on elemental spatial
distribution and provide a foundation from which we can move from
evaluating absolute elemental concentrations to addressing the processes
of elemental redistribution through the geochemical/ biogeochemical
cycle and the feedbacks within an ecosystem. An assessment of regionally
dominant baseline biogeochemical processes is necessary to understanding
the vulnerability of ecosystems to perturbation and /or disturbance of
biogeochemical cycles. Environmental changes that could affect the
current cycling and result in changes in elemental speciation and
distribution include climate change, urbanization, and resource
development.

**Objectives:**

To identify regionally dominant baseline biogeochemical processes and
assess differences in geoavailablity vs. bioavailability resulting from
these processes.

**Work Strategy:**

An integrated geologic, geochemical, climatic, hydrologic, and biologic
ecosystem framework of evaluating elemental geoavailablity vs.
bioavailability is required to ultimately address how Alaskan ecosystem
will respond to change. This work will include - 1) assessing the
availability and quality of the statewide data on important parameters
such as climate (temperature, precipitation), surficial geology,
geochemistry, and hydrology. 2) Integration of geologic, geophysical,
biogeochemical, and hydrologic investigations on state, regional, and
watershed scales to provide a geologic framework and baseline process
framework responsible for elemental distributions.

**Relevance and Impact:**

This project addresses several of the components of the Science Goal by
establishing a geologic/geochemical framework for ecosystem structure
and function. This project will provide geochemical baseline
distribution processes and geologic framework to identify the
geochemical/biogeochemical processes critical to the structure and
function of ecosystems in Alaska.

Partnerships: **Federal and state land managers, University of Alaska,
NRCS**

**BASIC GEOLOGIC MAPPING---THE UNFINISHED MISSION OF THE USGS IN
ALASKA**

**Problem:** A geologic map is the most fundamental product of any
geological survey of a region. Every map must be constructed not just
from observations, but also from intelligent guesswork, filling in the
gaps between exposed rocks that even the best geologist may not
understand correctly. Geologic maps generally need serious revision
within 20 to 40 years, as new analytical techniques and new ideas come
along. In the United States, the most glaring holes in geologic map
coverage are in Alaska, where the first pass of ground-based geologic
mapping has never been completed, not even at the gross reconnaissance
scale of 1:250,000. Putting the situation in a broader context, Alaska
now has been surpassed by Papua New Guinea and Mauritania in the
relative extent of geologic map coverage.

**Objective**: Alaska is huge and nearly roadless, and the costs of
field work make it impossible to simply go out and map everything that
remains, the way one might do in the conterminous U.S. Accordingly,
selected areas will be targeted that are critical to the geologic
history, which in turn bears on everything from mineral and energy
resource potential, to hazard assessment, to climate change.

**Work strategy**: Key areas the size of one 15-minute quadrangle to a
full 3-degree sheet will be selected. Of all the hundreds of unmapped
1:63,360-scale sheets, the most critical ones span terrane boundaries.
(Examples: Farewell-Yukon-Tanana boundary in Kantishna River quad.,
Ruby-Farewell boundary in Ruby quad., Kilbuck-Nyac boundary in Russian
Mission quad., Innoko-Ruby boundary in Medfra or Ruby quad.,
Porcupine-Arctic Alaska boundary in Coleen quad., Wrangellia-Alexander
boundary in St. Elias quad.). The full arsenal of modern tools will be
used: GIS, airborne geophysics, satellite remote sensing, detrital
zircon geochronology, kinematic and PTt analysis of tectonites, apatite
fission track dating, and so on.

**Relevance/Impact**: It\'s futile to predict the impact of a single
geologic map of an area that is essentially unknown. Long experience has
shown, however, that geologic mapping of frontier areas occasionally
pays huge dividends, in paving the way to discoveries like the world\'s
largest zinc deposit (Red Dog, NW Alaska).

**Partnerships**: Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys,
BLM, NPS, USFS, USFWS, Native corporations, mineral and energy
exploration industry, environmental organizations.

**Integrated Bristol Bay Watershed Resource Assessment**

**Problem:**

Concerns about the potential Pebble mine project have arisen due to its
proximity to the headwaters of the Bristol Bay fishery and to Lake Clark
National Park and Preserve, and because of potential impacts on the
subsistence lifestyle and commercial fishing interests of many of the
local communities. Most discussions have focused on the immediate Pebble
Project area. However, we are aware of additional mineral development
interest in the Bristol Bay watershed and might reasonably anticipate
that some of the same concerns that surround the Pebble project will
arise elsewhere. Many of the concerns expressed are broader then the
immediate Pebble project and could be categorized as concerns of
disruptions to ecosystem function and linkages in the Bristol Bay
Watershed. In order to provide robust processed-based scientific
information regarding the current status and functioning of the Bristol
Bay Watershed ecosystem to resource and land managers, we propose the an
integrated Bristol Bay Watershed Resource assessment.

**Objectives:**

Typically assessments are topically based (minerals, oil/gas, fisheries,
hydrology) not system based (interactions between the various
components). Here the objective is to consider the cumulative resource
endowment and produce methods and tools for assessment integration. An
integrated assessment will require: 1) identifying possible (eco)system
linkages, 2) deciding which linkages are tractable and targeting these
studies 3) conducting individual studies scaled to answer specific
process oriented questions 4) synthesizing and scaling this information
to identify cumulative impacts and 5) scenario evaluation --possibly
through modeling tools.

**Work Strategy:**

1\) Work with land and resource managers to identify key areas of
concern. Compile geologic and biologic information available for the
Bristol Bay watershed. Use GIS tools to produce a "retrospective"
analysis of the watershed to identify data gaps related to these key
areas. Conduct topical studies to address watershed and ecosystem
function. Finally, develop an integrated assessment model and tools.

**Relevance and Impact:** This project will provide conceptual and
practical tools to evaluate the dynamic functioning of large
watershed/ecosystem. Land and resource managers often lack the necessary
scientific baseline data and integrated management tools to adequately
risk and benefits, especially in Alaska where vast wildlife, fisheries,
timber, mineral, and energy resources overlap, where baseline data is
minimal, and where preservation and exploitation ethics often collide.
This project would develop methods and tools for conducting multiple
resource assessments that would be transferable to other areas in the
state and country.

**Partnerships:** AK Department of Natural Resource, AK Fish and Gam),
NPS, BLM, USFWS, AK Native and village corporations, Alaska Miners
Association, NGOs, other programs in the USGS- Remote Sensing, Social
Science and Planning, Biology Programs, Water Programs, and the
University of Alaska.

**Legacy biogeochemical samples: a POSSIBLE climate retrospective FOR
ALASKA**

Statement of Problem

Changes in erosion rates, permafrost melting patterns, and wildlife
populations in Alaska have raised public awareness of the ongoing
effects of climate change. However, baselines from which to document
rates and extent of change are difficult to establish.

The USGS has been working in Alaska for over a century, during which
biological samples were periodically collected by geological
expeditions. Programs such as the AK Mineral Resource Assessment Program
(1970's and 1980's) for example, collected vegetation in some locations
as part of regional drainage geochemical sampling. Other programs and
projects have collected peat, humus, mosses, lichens, tree cores, moose
droppings, fish, and a variety of plant materials. The National
Geochemical Database currently captures more than 12,000 such samples
from Alaska.

These legacy data may provide valuable insight into historic
biogeochemical and atmospheric conditions, and may help establish a
partial baseline for evaluation of future geochemical variations related
to global climate change.

Objectives

Evaluate the biogeochemical data available from legacy vegetation
samples in Alaska for use in establishing a retrospective baseline for
measuring climate change. Develop a network of monitoring sites and a
re-sampling protocol to collect current and future equivalent data from
appropriate locations.

Work Strategy

1\) Identify from the National Geochemical Database and other Geologic
Division and USGS records, the number, types, and collection year of
biogeochemical materials sampled in Alaska since 1900; 2) evaluate the
quality of the data (e.g. are genus, species and precise location
available? which elements analyzed may track atmospheric conditions,
soil moisture, etc.?) 3) Resample biological and related materials from
a subset of species and sites, to establish any significant temporal
variation since the original sample date; 4) If warranted, design a
monitoring network and sampling protocol for future data collection for
stations and media which show the most promise for tracking climate
conditions in a variety of ecosystems.

Relevance and Impact

Vegetation in arctic and sub arctic climates responds relatively rapidly
to changing climate conditions. Over 12,000 legacy biogeochemical
samples in Alaska represent a series of snapshots over a 50 to 100 year
window of biological history. An evaluation of this important statewide
dataset may provide a critical partial baseline for the measurement of
future biologic response to broad changes in climate conditions.

Partnerships

State of Alaska; FWS. NPS, BLM, NRCS; Alaska Natives; various
universities.

**GLOBAL CHANGE AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY**

**Problem:** If current trends continue, we\'re heading for hotter and
(globally) wetter climate such as was last seen on earth at the
Paleocene-Eocene boundary, some 55 million years ago. Most
climatologists think that this is cause for concern. In general, global
warming will cause the climatic belts to shift poleward. It will be
wetter (globally, though not necessarily locally). Hurricanes will be
stronger and more frequent. Some terrestrial and marine ecosystems may
collapse. It probably will be good for Alaskan apple growers but bad for
most farmers in most parts of the world.

**Objective:** To find out what we may be in for in detail for specific
places in the USA and elsewhere, two avenues of investigation will need
to be fully integrated: (1) computerized Global Climate Models (GCMs),
and (2) geologic ground truth that is specifically acquired to test and
hone these models. It should be emphasized that most USGS-sponsored
field-based paleoclimate research has been on the Quaternary, which was
never warm enough to apply to conditions that we are likely to face,
based on current atmospheric carbon dioxide trends and predictable
trends.

**Work Strategy[: The USGS should seize a central role in research on
global climate change.]{.underline}** This is exactly the kind of big,
long-term effort on an timely issue for which we as an agency were
meant. Regardless of origin, paleoclimate assessments are relevant to
the proposed research. But the highest priority target must be areas
that have been at sub-Arctic and Arctic latitudes for the longest time.
Within the U.S., this means Alaska, parts or all of which have been
farther north than anywhere else in the country for the past 250 million
years.

**Relevance/Impact:** Accurate climate forecasts are urgently needed by
local, state and federal government, as well as the rest of the
developed world, to guide short- and long-range planning and policy.

**Partnerships:** An intensive effort should be mounted that involves a
cooperative with a place such as Penn State\'s Earth and Environmental
Systems Institute for modeling, coupled with a strong USGS presence in
geology, and a substantial external grants program.

*(See the the New York Times article by Revkin published on June 1,
2006, noting the need for paleoclimatologists to focus on the
Paleocene-Eocene, rather than the Quaternary, for analogues to Earth in
a warmer climate.)*

**PREDICTING HOT SPOTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICT IN ALASKA**

Statement of Problem

Heated public debate is underway regarding exploration at the Pebble
prospect, southern Alaska, potentially one of the largest
gold-copper-molybdenum mines in the world, and its potential impacts on
fisheries, prior even to any permit applications being submitted to
relevant agencies. This debate portends the future challenges to
stewardship of public lands in Alaska, in which conflicts between
renewable and non-renewable resources, economic and environmental values
accelerate at both regional and village scales.

Balanced resource development decisions can only be made with unbiased
scientific data on both the physical and biologic systems in question.

Within the next decades, the global forces of climate change and
increased competitiveness for resources will put increasing pressure on
the usage of Alaska lands. A capability to predict areas where the
physical landscape and biologic resources are most sensitive to change,
and areas of potentially conflicting resource needs will allow the USGS
to focus where we provide balanced, publicly available science in
support of sound decision making.

Objectives

To identify potential hot spots of environmental conflict in Alaska:
areas with significant potential for future resource development
(mineral, coal, petroleum, fisheries, timber), and areas of particular
biologic or physical susceptibility to disruption from changing climates
(e.g. shore/bank erosion, permafrost melting) or human disturbance.

Develop a capability to predict areas of likely environmental concern or
strain.

Work Strategy

Bedrock and surficial geologic, geochemical, biological (floral and
faunal), and hydrologic scientists would (a) identify gaps in knowledge,
(b) develop rankings of sensitivity and probability for individual
features and systems (c) synthesize

Relevance and Impact

Mineral and energy exploration in Alaska are surging, with increased
concern about the environmental impact of non-renewable resource
development relative to the more traditionally exploited renewable
resources. Documented changes in erosion rates, permafrost melting
patterns, and wildlife populations in Alaska have raised the awareness
of state residents to the current effects of climate change. The level
of pressure on the Alaska landscape and its managers is likely to
increase due to increased resource demand and increasingly dramatic
effects of climate change.

Federal, State and local agencies need credible, unbiased information to
evaluate proposed competing land uses and to develop effective land and
wildlife management strategies. The public will have a source of
credible, unbiased information on which to base its understanding of
changes in the Arctic landscape, and a more informed basis for
participation in decision making.

Partnerships

FWS, NPS, BLM, USFS, COE, State of Alaska, University of Alaska

**THE PHYSICAL BASIS OF ECOSYSTEMS**

Statement of Problem

The accelerating global forces of climate change and competition for
resources puts increasing pressure on the use of Alaska's public lands.
Biological resources are commonly described and managed on the basis of
ecosystems -- "A dynamic complex of plant, animal, and micro-organism
communities and their non-living environment interacting as a functional
unit". However, the interactions of the organisms with and dependencies
on the "non-living" physical basis of the ecosystem are poorly
understood.

Tectonic forces control rates of uplift and erosion, surface roughness,
and steepness and orientation of land surfaces. Rates and seasonal
spacing of precipitation along with soil development and transport
affect moisture and nutrients available for biological functions. The
geochemistry and mineralogy of bedrock affects weathering rates, soil
development, soil and water chemistry, and along with climate,
determines weathering processes (mechanical vs. chemical).

The limiting factors, boundaries and critical processes needed to
establish and maintain a given ecosystem must be known in order to
effectively manage the functions of that ecosystem through changing
climates and human intervention.

Objectives

Characterize the physical conditions underlying ecosystems; understand
the physical processes that define and limit ecosystem functions.

Work Strategy

1\) Choose (2-3) key ecosystems in Alaska, where biological resources
are an important management concern 2) Field and lab studies to
characterize the physical landscape beneath those ecosystems
(geomorphology, bedrock, water, soil and sediment chemistry, slope
aspect, elevation etc.) and the vegetative cover 3) process-oriented
studies to define the limiting boundaries and critical dependencies
between the physical, vegetative and faunal components of the ecosystem.

Relevance and Impact

Mineral and energy exploration in Alaska are surging, with increased
concern about the environmental impact of non-renewable resource
development relative to more traditionally exploited renewable
resources. Documented changes in erosion, permafrost melt, and wildlife
populations in Alaska have raised public awareness to the ongoing
effects of climate change. Federal, State and local agencies need
credible, unbiased information to evaluate proposed competing land uses
and to develop effective land and wildlife management plans.
Understanding the physical conditions and processes and which define and
limit ecosystem functioning is the critical first step for understanding
the sensitivity of those ecosystems to climatic or human-induced
changes. The most effective tools for management of lands, habitats, and
species will be those based on a thorough understanding of the physical
basis of those ecosystems

Partnerships

Biology, Water, Geography disciplines; NPS, FWS, USFS, NRCS, atmospheric
scientists

**Geologic and Geomorphic Controls on the Spatial Distribution of
Upwelling and Down-welling Zones and their Functional Significance to
Salmon Spawning**\
\
**Statement of Problem:** There is considerable evidence that salmon
spawning occurs more frequently in locations along streams where
groundwater and stream flow interact, such as in upwelling or
down-welling zones. The spatial distribution of these areas results from
the combination of favorable geomorphology (topography), surficial and
bedrock geology (sediment or rock porosity and permeability), and
hydrology (stream discharge). Presently, there is neither a complete map
depicting the location of these features, nor an established,
scientifically defensible, method for their
identification. Consequently, it is currently impossible to determine
the degree of impact on these ecosystems from external factors. The
identification, classification, and mapping of upwelling areas along
streams will undoubtedly aid the management of ecosystems and help
specifically address problems of resource distribution, human impact,
and biological diversity.\
\
**Objectives:** This project will focus on locating and classifying up-
and down-welling zones using geology and geomorphology as constraints.
We will construct a classification hierarchy that includes major
influences governing the location of these zones, such as rock/sediment
type, fracture flow, surficial geology, bed rock geology, slope
discontinuities, thickness of surficial sediment, faults, and fracture
systems. The goal is to determine precisely which features are mostly
strongly indicative of up- and down-welling zones, and how they lead to
favorable conditions for salmon spawning.\
\
**Work Strategy:**  Our approach for cataloging and describing zones of
up- and down-welling will be quantitative and cover a broad range of
disciplines including geology, biology, hydrology, and ecology. A
particular resource that will allow for subsurface assessment is remote
sensing, specifically aeromagnetic and resistivity. These valuable tools
will aid in the understanding of the extent and direction of faults and
fractures zones that strongly influence the flow of groundwater and to a
lesser extent surface water. Aeromagnetic and resistivity data
is currently available in the following key locations of salmon spawning
streams: Nome west, Council east of Nome, and Nyac mining district
(aeromagnetic data is available for Stikine, Koyukuk, and Ketchikan). In
addition to remote sensing, we anticipate that high resolution digital
elevation data will be necessary for landform analysis. Once areas are
established for likely up- and down-welling zones, we will concretely
identify zones using hydrologic and tracer techniques. As our
investigation progresses, we will document changes over time, which is
essential for the assessment of the long-term impact from human activity
and global climate change.\
\
**Relevance and Impact**: This project will provide a framework for
organizing and manipulating scientific data useful for predicting,
locating, and classifying areas of up- and down-welling. Classifying
these zones according to their controlling process would improve
vulnerability assessments in the face of climate and other
changes. Likewise, an ecological representation of geologically
favorable salmon spawning areas will be especially useful when planning
for sustainability of Alaska's marine, coastal, and riparian resources.
Furthermore, this project contributes directly to the following Geologic
Discipline Science Strategies: 1) Understanding ecosystems and
predicting ecosystem change, 2) Climate variability and change, 3) The
role of environmental and wildlife in human health, and 4) A water
census of the United States.\
\
**Partnerships:**  The proposed work involves close collaboration with
the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, Alaska
Departments of Natural Resources and Fish and Game, the National Park
Service, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Bureau of Land
Management.

**Quantifying rates of erosion along Alaska's Arctic coastlines,
reassessing past sea-level transgressions, and building models to
predict future shoreline configurations under changing climatic
conditions.**

**Statement of Problem**

Rates of shoreline erosion along Arctic coastlines are among the highest
in the world and vast stretches of Alaska's coastline are currently
being truncated by the transgressing sea. Alaska's coastal areas provide
important habitat for waterfowl, ungulates, and subsistence activities,
are rich in petroleum reserves, and are increasingly vulnerable to
increased rates of erosion due to longer open water seasons and
increases in magnitude and frequency of storm events as a result of the
observed reduction in sea ice extent. For these reasons it is essential
to reexamine the historic long term rates of erosion along Alaska's
Arctic coastlines, revisit a number of the seminole publications on
surficial and quaternary geology of the Arctic, and update
paleo-shoreline and landform delineations with recently available
high-resolution IFSAR derived digital surface models.

**Objectives**

To assess the spatial and temporal variation in rates of erosion and
accretion along Alaska's Arctic coastlines, relate observed patterns of
erosion rates to the factors that are reportedly responsible for modern
shoreline configuration, and to provide accurate and current shoreline
rate of change data for decision support systems.

**Work Strategy**

-   Develop an historic archive of georeferenced imagery for Alaska's
    Arctic coastlines

-   Determine rates of erosion from multiple time sequences to determine
    if rates of erosion are increasing, decreasing, or not changing in
    response to a changing climate

-   Use rate of erosion analysis to focus geocryological field studies
    to determine why rates of erosion vary across space and time.

-   Build predictive models to forecast future shoreline positions.

-   Revisit surficial and quaternary geology of the Arctic with recently
    available high-resolution digital surface models to discuss
    paleo-transgressions, shoreline extents, and past environmental
    conditions

**Relevance and Impact**

The USGS has a long history of process based shoreline studies along
Alaska's Arctic coastlines as well as providing the most comprehensive
surficial and quaternary geological maps of the region. Owing to the
recent changes being observed and the availability of high-resolution
datasets it would be of the utmost importance to revisit many of the
studies conducted in the 1970s and 1980s by USGS scientists. Analysis of
rates of erosion and building predictive models for decision support
systems will allow land and resource managers with information necessary
to make sound decisions.

**Partnerships**

BLM, AKDFG, AKDNR, North Slope Borough, USFWS, Oil companies, University
of Alaska Anchorage, University of Cincinnati, Barrow Arctic Science
Consortium, National Science Foundation, NASA,

**Input ideas from other disciplines ASC:**

-   Determination of linkages between surficial geology and water
    quantity and quality; river and coastal erosion properties; and
    influence on surface vegetation in a changing climate.

    -   For example, we know that the porous volcanic rock in the
        Deschutes River basin in Oregon greatly reduces the overall
        quantity of stream flow and the peak stream flows relative to
        adjacent. Similar basin comparisons could be conducted in other
        areas that relate surficial geology to over all water supply and
        quality (e.g., limestone deposits vrs gravel or volcanic based;
        timing of salmon use of streams; help understand surface
        water-ground water interactions, the sensitivity of various
        water bodies to land-surface change; determination of
        contamination risks); how surficial geology effects the rate and
        severity of erosion to river and coastal bank environments; the
        subtle effects of near subsurface substrate on vegetation
        development following disturbance events, and the associated
        effects on permafrost development/melting.

-   Mapping of trace elements across landscapes - their sources and
    effects.

    -   For example, selenium found in bird blood and eggs may affect
        fertility and hatchability of eggs, thus affect productivity of
        birds.

-   Increased Carbon 14 dating and isotopic chemistry -- This
    information would be useful for different trophic relationships,
    climate issues and coastal processes, and paleoclimate
    reconstruction.

-   Increased Carbon 14 dating and isotopic chemistry -- This
    information would be useful for different trophic relationships,
    climate issues and coastal processes, and paleoclimate
    reconstruction. For example, these analyses can elucidate what the
    sources of different foods are to animals. Also, these sorts of
    analyses (e.g., analyses of shells from isotopically dated sediment
    cores) can provide information about historical changes in the
    environment (temperature & thus climate change)

-   Geomorphology and Geology of coastal areas and processes. Useful for
    dynamics of beaches and shores potential distribution of
    contaminants in/on/near shore environments processes that structure
    marine ecosystems

-   Sedimentation rates & re-suspension of sediments in near shore
    environments. This information would be useful in ecological studies
    of nearshore environments (e.g., how these factors affect
    distribution of seaweeds, marine invertebrates, marine mammals (sea
    otters), and marine birds.

-   Glacial retreat and how it affects riverine and near-shore habitats
    through changes in run-off - possible effects on distribution,
    productivity of algae, microfauna & macrofauna.

-   Geochemical - micronutrients - possible effects on distribution,
    productivity of algae, microfauna & macrofauna.

-   Marine nutrients into terrestrial ecosystems, then back into
    near-shore - possible effects on distribution, productivity of
    algae, microfauna & macrofauna.

-   Effects of volcanic eruptions on habitats - blocked streams, flooded
    areas, changes in vegetation & effects on other species - especially
    anadromous fish and some species of geese & other waterfowl.

-   Effects of earthquakes & tsunamis on near-shore & coastal habitats &
    streams/rivers - possible effects to species such as fish and birds