Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 4/28/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** SF4016

SF4016

**South Africa, Republic of**

**Canned Deciduous Fruit**

**Annual**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Scott Reynolds

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Patricia Mabiletsa

**Report Highlights:**

South Africa\'s 2004 total canned deciduous fruit production is expected
to remain the same as last year despite a slight drop (2%) in the total
fruit sent for processing. Other expectations for the season are a
spillover of last year\'s negative exchange rate, resulting in reduced
profits, and a massive increase for canned apricots. The majority of
South Africa\'s canned products will be exported because of poor
harvests in major fruit producing countries.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Annual Report

Pretoria \[SF1\]

\[SF\]

Table of Contents

[**Executive Summary 3**](#executive-summary)

[Production 4](#production)

[Production Subcategory 5](#production-subcategory)

[Consumption 7](#consumption)

[Consumption Subcategory 7](#consumption-subcategory)

[Trade 7](#trade)

[Trade Subcategory 8](#trade-subcategory)

[Stocks 12](#stocks)

[Stocks Subcategory 12](#stocks-subcategory)

[Policy 12](#policy)

[Policy Subcategory 12](#policy-subcategory)

[Marketing 12](#marketing)

[Marketing Subcategory 12](#marketing-subcategory)

# Executive Summary

South Africa's canned deciduous fruit sector expects the 2004 to be
characterized by a spillover from last year's negative exchange rate,
reduced profits, a bumper apricot crop, and the same total production as
last year despite a slight drop (2%) in total fresh fruit sent for
processing.

In 2003, the canned fruit sector experienced a negative impact of the
strengthening of the rand to a dollar. Total exports increased because
of a good crop, but exports to the U.S. decreased as a result of high
export costs.

In November 2003, the industry raised the canned fruit prices by about
15% to account for high input costs. The costs of tins used for canning
are continuously escalating and are set as per dollar value. The
industry reports that export demand is down because of the increase in
production prices. The price increase is likely to affect demand,
especially to U.K. were consumers are price sensitive.

South African fruit processors remain optimistic thanks to a worldwide
shortage of processed fruit for this season, because of poor harvests in
major producing countries. They plan to export more peaches to the U.S.
and Australia, and pears to Italy because of expected huge demand. More
South African apricots exports are expected to reach Australia, also due
to shortage of production. South Africa also expects its biggest apricot
competitor, Spain, to produce a lower crop than last year. Shortage of
fresh fruit is expected to result in a demand shift to processed fruit
products, and will likely increase prices. Generally, South Africa's
outlook for canned deciduous fruit exports is positive.

# Production

South Africa's canning industry employs a total of about 19,000 people
nationally, which include about 11,000 people in the Western Cape's
deciduous fruit canning export businesses. Other canners are for
asparagus in the Eastern Free State, and for pineapple in the Eastern
Cape.

South Africa's marketing year for canned deciduous fruit is January to
December. The industry completed its canned apricot pack in February
2004. The industry sold all fruit that could not be canned mainly to jam
and pulp processing, and only about 3% of fruit was used for cattle
feed. Production of canned peaches is expected at average and at lower
prices because of the impact of both abnormal weather conditions and the
strengthening of the rand compared to a dollar.

The table below indicates total fresh fruit sent for processing in two
years.

+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
| Total fresh fruit produced  |                   |                    |
| for processing              |                   |                    |
|                             |                   |                    |
| (MT)                        |                   |                    |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
|                             | **2003**          | **2004**           |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
| Clingstone Peaches          | 154,508           | 134,733            |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
| Apricots                    |                   |                    |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
| Royal                       | 480               | 280                |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
| Bulida                      | 36514             | 60587              |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
| **Total Apricots**          | **36,994**        | **60,867**         |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
| Pears                       |                   |                    |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
| Bon Chretien                | 70,124            | 58,135             |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
| Others                      | 28,130            | 30,000             |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
| **Total pears**             | **98,254**        | **88,135**         |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+
| **Total fruit**             | **289,756**       | **283,735**        |
+-----------------------------+-------------------+--------------------+

Source: Fruit Canning industry

AVERAGE PRICES FOR FRESH DECIDUOUS FRUIT SENT FOR PROCESSING

+------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+
|                        | **2     | **2001/2**      | **2002/3**      |
|                        | 000/1** |                 |                 |
|                        |         | **R/Ton**       | **R/Ton**       |
|                        | **      |                 |                 |
|                        | R/Ton** |                 |                 |
+------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+
| # PEACHES              | 1       | 1,154.28        | 1,168.75        |
|                        | ,041.35 |                 |                 |
+------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **APRICOTS**           | 1       | 793.04          | 703.24          |
|                        | ,062.69 |                 |                 |
+------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **PEARS**              | 420.31  | 606.59          | 479.80          |
+------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+
|                        |         |                 |                 |
+------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Gross value of prod. |         |                 |                 |
| (R1000)**              |         |                 |                 |
+------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Fresh peaches**      | 294,193 | 360,331         | 533,114         |
+------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Fresh apricots**     | 76,395  | 61,640          | 90,006          |
+------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Fresh Pears**        | 390,355 | 508,201         | 487,036         |
+------------------------+---------+-----------------+-----------------+

Source: National Dept of Agric

## Production Subcategory

+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
| ###### Sou  |      |       |      |       |     |       |        |
| th Africa,  |      |       |      |       |     |       |        |
| Republic of |      |       |      |       |     |       |        |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       |        |
| ###### Can  |      |       |      |       |     |       |        |
| ned Peaches |      |       |      |       |     |       |        |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
|             | **20 | *     | **20 | **    | **  | **    | *      |
|             | 02** | *Revi | 03** | Estim | 200 | Forec | *UOM** |
|             |      | sed** |      | ate** | 4** | ast** |        |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
|             | **   | *     | **   | *     | **U | *     |        |
|             | USDA | *Post | USDA | *Post | SDA | *Post |        |
|             | Offi | Est   | Offi | Est   | Of  | Est   |        |
|             | cial | imate | cial | imate | fic | imate |        |
|             | \    | \[Ne  | \    | \[Ne  | ial | \[Ne  |        |
|             | [Old | w\]** | [Old | w\]** | \[O | w\]** |        |
|             | \]** |       | \]** |       | ld\ |       |        |
|             |      |       |      |       | ]** |       |        |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
| **Market    |      | *     |      | *     |     | *     | **MM/  |
| Year        |      | *01/2 |      | *01/2 |     | *01/2 | YYYY** |
| Begin**     |      | 003** |      | 004** |     | 005** |        |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
| **Deliv. To | 14   | 1     | 15   | 1     | 0   | 1     | (MT)   |
| P           | 9866 | 54508 | 5800 | 34733 |     | 45000 |        |
| rocessors** |      |       |      |       |     |       |        |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
| **Beginning | 1    | 18182 | 1    | 13212 | 9   | 9862  | (MT,   |
| Stocks**    | 8182 |       | 5432 |       | 682 |       | Net    |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | W      |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | eight) |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
| **P         | 9    | 98885 | 9    | 86230 | 0   | 92560 | (MT,   |
| roduction** | 6000 |       | 0000 |       |     |       | Net    |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | W      |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | eight) |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
| **Imports** | 250  | 3     | 250  | 100   | 0   | 100   | (MT,   |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | Net    |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | W      |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | eight) |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
| **TOTAL     | **   | **117 | **   | **99  | **  | **102 | **(MT, |
| SUPPLY**    | 1144 | 070** | 1056 | 542** | 968 | 522** | Net    |
|             | 32** |       | 82** |       | 2** |       | Wei    |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | ght)** |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
| **Exports** | 7    | 77168 | 7    | 66400 | 0   | 71780 | (MT,   |
|             | 3000 |       | 0000 |       |     |       | Net    |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | W      |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | eight) |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
| **Domestic  | 2    | 26690 | 2    | 23280 | 0   | 24900 | (MT,   |
| Co          | 6000 |       | 6000 |       |     |       | Net    |
| nsumption** |      |       |      |       |     |       | W      |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | eight) |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
| **Ending    | 1    | 13212 | 9682 | 9862  | 0   | 5842  | (MT,   |
| Stocks**    | 5432 |       |      |       |     |       | Net    |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | W      |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | eight) |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+
| **TOTAL     | **   | **117 | **   | **99  | **  | **102 | **(MT, |
| DIS         | 1144 | 070** | 1056 | 542** | 0** | 522** | Net    |
| TRIBUTION** | 32** |       | 82** |       |     |       | Wei    |
|             |      |       |      |       |     |       | ght)** |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+-----+-------+--------+

Total peach deliveries to the processing sector are expected to decrease
by 13% in 2004 because of a good quality harvest that caused more fruit
to be sold in the fresh markets. This decrease will result in a 13% drop
for total canned peach production.

+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
| South Africa, |     |       |     |       |      |        |        |
| Republic of   |     |       |     |       |      |        |        |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        |        |
| ######        |     |       |     |       |      |        |        |
|  Canned Pears |     |       |     |       |      |        |        |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
|               | **  | *     | **  | **    | **20 | **Fore | *      |
|               | 200 | *Revi | 200 | Estim | 04** | cast** | *UOM** |
|               | 2** | sed** | 3** | ate** |      |        |        |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
|               | **U | *     | **U | *     | **   | **Post |        |
|               | SDA | *Post | SDA | *Post | USDA | Es     |        |
|               | Of  | Est   | Of  | Est   | Offi | timate |        |
|               | fic | imate | fic | imate | cial | \[N    |        |
|               | ial | \[Ne  | ial | \[Ne  | \    | ew\]** |        |
|               | \[O | w\]** | \[O | w\]** | [Old |        |        |
|               | ld\ |       | ld\ |       | \]** |        |        |
|               | ]** |       | ]** |       |      |        |        |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
| **Market Year |     | *     |     | *     |      | **01/  | **MM/  |
| Begin**       |     | *01/2 |     | *01/2 |      | 2005** | YYYY** |
|               |     | 003** |     | 004** |      |        |        |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
| ##            | 66  | 9     | 67  | 8     | 0    | 93000  | (MT)   |
| ##### Deliv.  | 749 | 8,254 | 000 | 8,135 |      |        |        |
| To Processors |     |       |     |       |      |        |        |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
| **Beginning   | 1   | 1062  | 1   | 1375  | 1462 | 1915   | (MT,   |
| Stocks**      | 062 |       | 462 |       |      |        | Net    |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | W      |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | eight) |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
| *             | 26  | 3     | 26  | 2     | 0    | 30700  | (MT,   |
| *Production** | 600 | 2,420 | 800 | 9,000 |      |        | Net    |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | W      |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | eight) |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
| **Imports**   | 0   | 8     | 0   | 20    | 0    | 20     | (MT,   |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | Net    |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | W      |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | eight) |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
| **TOTAL       | **2 | **33  | **2 | **30  | **14 | **3    | **(MT, |
| SUPPLY**      | 766 | 490** | 826 | 395** | 62** | 2635** | Net    |
|               | 2** |       | 2** |       |      |        | Wei    |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | ght)** |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
| **Exports**   | 24  | 2     | 24  | 2     | 0    | 27,700 | (MT,   |
|               | 000 | 9,465 | 000 | 6,100 |      |        | Net    |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | W      |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | eight) |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
| **Domestic    | 2   | 2,650 | 2   | 2,380 | 0    | 2500   | (MT,   |
| Consumption** | 200 |       | 800 |       |      |        | Net    |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | W      |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | eight) |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
| **Ending      | 1   | 1,375 | 1   | 1,915 | 0    | 2435   | (MT,   |
| Stocks**      | 462 |       | 462 |       |      |        | Net    |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | W      |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | eight) |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+
| **TOTAL       | **2 | **33  | **2 | **30  | *    | **3    | **(MT, |
| D             | 766 | 490** | 826 | 395** | *0** | 2635** | Net    |
| ISTRIBUTION** | 2** |       | 2** |       |      |        | Wei    |
|               |     |       |     |       |      |        | ght)** |
+---------------+-----+-------+-----+-------+------+--------+--------+

The 2004 fresh pears for processing is expected to decrease by about 10%
also because of more fruit sold in the fresh markets resulting from the
improved quality crop. Total canned pears production will be around 11%
lower than last year.

+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| South        |     |       |      |       |      |       |        |
| Africa,      |     |       |      |       |      |       |        |
| Republic of  |     |       |      |       |      |       |        |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       |        |
| ###### Can   |     |       |      |       |      |       |        |
| ned Apricots |     |       |      |       |      |       |        |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
|              | **  | *     | **20 | **    | **20 | **    | *      |
|              | 200 | *Revi | 03** | Estim | 04** | Forec | *UOM** |
|              | 2** | sed** |      | ate** |      | ast** |        |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
|              | **U | *     | **   | *     | **   | *     |        |
|              | SDA | *Post | USDA | *Post | USDA | *Post |        |
|              | Of  | Est   | Offi | Est   | Offi | Est   |        |
|              | fic | imate | cial | imate | cial | imate |        |
|              | ial | \[Ne  | \    | \[Ne  | \    | \[Ne  |        |
|              | \[O | w\]** | [Old | w\]** | [Old | w\]** |        |
|              | ld\ |       | \]** |       | \]** |       |        |
|              | ]** |       |      |       |      |       |        |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Market     |     | *     |      | *     |      | *     | **MM/  |
| Year Begin** |     | *01/2 |      | *01/2 |      | *01/2 | YYYY** |
|              |     | 003** |      | 004** |      | 005** |        |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Deliv. To  | 43  | 36994 | 0    | 60867 | 0    | 48900 | (MT)   |
| Processors** | 800 |       |      |       |      |       |        |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Beginning  | 2   | 8442  | 1680 | 8743  | 1680 | 10393 | (MT,   |
| Stocks**     | 480 |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **           | 35  | 28573 | 0    | 46870 | 0    | 37700 | (MT,   |
| Production** | 000 |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Imports**  | 0   | 44    | 0    | 20    | 0    | 20    | (MT,   |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **TOTAL      | **3 | **37  | **16 | **55  | **16 | **48  | **(MT, |
| SUPPLY**     | 748 | 059** | 80** | 633** | 80** | 113** | Net    |
|              | 0** |       |      |       |      |       | Wei    |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | ght)** |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| ###          | 30  | 23596 | 0    | 37500 | 0    | 30500 | (MT,   |
| #### Exports | 000 |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Domestic   | 5   | 4720  | 0    | 7740  | 0    | 6230  | (MT,   |
| C            | 800 |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
| onsumption** |     |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Ending     | 1   | 8743  | 1680 | 10393 | 0    | 11383 | (MT,   |
| Stocks**     | 680 |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **TOTAL      | **3 | **37  | **16 | **55  | *    | **48  | **(MT, |
| DI           | 748 | 059** | 80** | 633** | *0** | 113** | Net    |
| STRIBUTION** | 0** |       |      |       |      |       | Wei    |
|              |     |       |      |       |      |       | ght)** |
+--------------+-----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+

South Africa's 2004 fresh apricot production is expected to increase
significantly because of favorable growing conditions. More than 60% of
fruit is expected to be sold to the canning processors, and is expected
to produce about 64% of the total canned apricots.

+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| South       |    |       |      |       |      |       |        |
| Africa,     |    |       |      |       |      |       |        |
| Republic of |    |       |      |       |      |       |        |
|             |    |       |      |       |      |       |        |
| ###### Cann |    |       |      |       |      |       |        |
| ed Mixtures |    |       |      |       |      |       |        |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
|             | ** | *     | **20 | **    | **20 | **    | *      |
|             | 20 | *Revi | 03** | Estim | 04** | Forec | *UOM** |
|             | 02 | sed** |      | ate** |      | ast** |        |
|             | ** |       |      |       |      |       |        |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
|             | ** | *     | **   | *     | **   | *     |        |
|             | US | *Post | USDA | *Post | USDA | *Post |        |
|             | DA | Est   | Offi | Est   | Offi | Est   |        |
|             | Of | imate | cial | imate | cial | imate |        |
|             | fi | \[Ne  | \    | \[Ne  | \    | \[Ne  |        |
|             | ci | w\]** | [Old | w\]** | [Old | w\]** |        |
|             | al |       | \]** |       | \]** |       |        |
|             | \  |       |      |       |      |       |        |
|             | [O |       |      |       |      |       |        |
|             | ld |       |      |       |      |       |        |
|             | \] |       |      |       |      |       |        |
|             | ** |       |      |       |      |       |        |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Market    |    | *     |      | *     |      | *     | **MM/  |
| Year        |    | *01/2 |      | *01/2 |      | *01/2 | YYYY** |
| Begin**     |    | 003** |      | 004** |      | 005** |        |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Deliv. To | 21 | 2     | 0    | 2     | 0    | 2     | (MT)   |
| P           | 88 | 89756 |      | 83735 |      | 86700 |        |
| rocessors** | 00 |       |      |       |      |       |        |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Beginning | 34 | 5925  | 3648 | 3982  | 3648 | 2722  | (MT,   |
| Stocks**    | 68 |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
|             |    |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|             |    |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **P         | 3  | 37289 | 0    | 36890 | 0    | 37000 | (MT,   |
| roduction** | 30 |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
|             | 00 |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|             |    |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Imports** | 80 | 115   | 0    | 150   | 0    | 130   | (MT,   |
|             |    |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
|             |    |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|             |    |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **TOTAL     | *  | **43  | **36 | **41  | **36 | **39  | **(MT, |
| SUPPLY**    | *3 | 329** | 48** | 022** | 48** | 852** | Net    |
|             | 65 |       |      |       |      |       | Wei    |
|             | 48 |       |      |       |      |       | ght)** |
|             | ** |       |      |       |      |       |        |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Exports** | 2  | 35247 | 0    | 34300 | 0    | 34700 | (MT,   |
|             | 90 |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
|             | 00 |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|             |    |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Domestic  | 39 | 4100  | 0    | 4000  | 0    | 4000  | (MT,   |
| Co          | 00 |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
| nsumption** |    |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|             |    |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **Ending    | 36 | 3982  | 3648 | 2722  | 0    | 1152  | (MT,   |
| Stocks**    | 48 |       |      |       |      |       | Net    |
|             |    |       |      |       |      |       | W      |
|             |    |       |      |       |      |       | eight) |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| **TOTAL     | *  | **43  | **36 | **41  | *    | **39  | **(MT, |
| DIS         | *3 | 329** | 48** | 022** | *0** | 852** | Net    |
| TRIBUTION** | 65 |       |      |       |      |       | Wei    |
|             | 48 |       |      |       |      |       | ght)** |
|             | ** |       |      |       |      |       |        |
+-------------+----+-------+------+-------+------+-------+--------+

South Africa's 2004 production of canned mixed fruit is expected to be
about the same as last year, even though there was a slight decrease of
about 2% of fruit sent for processing.

# Consumption

South Africa's 2004 total domestic consumption of canned deciduous
fruits is expected to reduce insignificantly because more canned
products will be exported resulting from increased demand, especially to
Italy, the U.S. Australia and some EU member states. Domestic canned
fruit consumption is expected to decrease by 13% for peaches, 10% for
pears, but this will mostly be offset by an increase in canned apricot
consumption.

## 

## Consumption Subcategory

## 

# Trade

South Africa's total 2004 exports of canned fruit are expected to remain
as last year because of an expected increase in international demand
resulting from poor harvest in major producing areas. Canned apricots
will make up the bulk of exports because of massive production.

Imports are expected to increase by about 70% to account for the total
lower production that will be mainly exported. More imports are likely
for canned peaches, pears, and mixtures.

The fruit farmers and processors blame the strengthening of the rand to
the dollar for their expected 35% profit losses in 2003. Since November
2001, the U.S. dollar moved below the R10 line to a current rate of
about R6.50. It becomes expensive for farmers to export, and increasing
cheap imports are starting to depress the domestic prices. Indications
are that in 2003, input costs increased by 1.7% while average producer
prices declined by 4.3%.

The deciduous fruit canning industry plans to maintain their traditional
markets and to increase access to North America and Canada, enjoying the
benefits of AGOA and the expected U.S.-SACU FTA. The industry indicates
that they are faced with uncertainties of AGOA on their canned pears and
apricots with current duties of 29.8%.

Hedged export prices for canned fruit products are expected to increase
by 5-18%.

## Trade Subcategory

+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| South Africa,  |                 |                 |                 |
| Republic of    |                 |                 |                 |
|                |                 |                 |                 |
| Canned Peaches |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Time Period    | Jan-Dec         | Units:          | MT              |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Imports for:   | 2002            |                 | 2003            |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **U.S.**       | **0**           | **U.S.**        | **0.074**       |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others         |                 | Others          |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
|                |                 | China           | 3               |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for    | **0**           |                 | **3**           |
| Others**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Others not   | **0**           |                 | **0**           |
| Listed**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand        | **0**           |                 | **3**           |
| Total**        |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+

+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| South Africa,      |             |                |                 |
| Republic of        |             |                |                 |
|                    |             |                |                 |
| Canned Peaches     |             |                |                 |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Time Period        | Jan-Dec     | Units:         | MT              |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Exports for:       | 2002        |                | 2003            |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| **U.S.**           | **8,621**   | **U.S.**       | **7,656**       |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Others             |             | Others         |                 |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Japan              | 15,005      | Japan          | 17,208          |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Netherlands        | 4,935       | Germany        | 10,871          |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Germany            | 4,909       | U.K.           | 6,528           |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Hong Kong          | 4,463       | Hong Kong      | 5,256           |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| U.K.               | 3,519       | Canada         | 3,700           |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Switzerland        | 3,480       | Switzerland    | 3,111           |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Canada             | 3,353       | Greece         | 2,282           |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Korea,South        | 2,080       | Korea, South   | 2,079           |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Taiwan             | 1,501       | Netherlands    | 1,821           |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Austria            | 1,335       | Belgium        | 1,796           |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for        | **44580**   |                | **54652**       |
| Others**           |             |                |                 |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| **Others not       | **10,380**  |                | **14,860**      |
| Listed**           |             |                |                 |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand Total**    | **63581**   |                | **77168**       |
+--------------------+-------------+----------------+-----------------+

In 2003, South Africa reduced its export for canned peaches to the U.S.
by about 11% compared to the previous year. A significant reduction
(63%) was also made on exports to the Netherlands. The two biggest
export markets, Japan and Germany are increased by 15% and 220%
respectively. Greece and Belgium once again joined South Africa's
leading export destinations. Total canned peach exports increased by
21%.

+----------------+----------------+----------------+-----------------+
| South Africa,  |                |                |                 |
| Republic of    |                |                |                 |
|                |                |                |                 |
| #####          |                |                |                 |
| # Canned Pears |                |                |                 |
+----------------+----------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Time Period    | Jan-Dec        | Units:         | MT              |
+----------------+----------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Imports for:   | 2002           |                | 2003            |
+----------------+----------------+----------------+-----------------+
| **U.S.**       | **0**          | **U.S.**       | **0**           |
+----------------+----------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Others         |                | Others         |                 |
+----------------+----------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Spain          | 16.295         | Spain          | 5.652           |
+----------------+----------------+----------------+-----------------+
| Germany        | 0.4            | Lebanon        | 2.438           |
+----------------+----------------+----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for    | **16.695**     |                | **8.09**        |
| Others**       |                |                |                 |
+----------------+----------------+----------------+-----------------+
| **Others not   | **0**          |                | **0**           |
| Listed**       |                |                |                 |
+----------------+----------------+----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand        | **16.695**     |                | **8.09**        |
| Total**        |                |                |                 |
+----------------+----------------+----------------+-----------------+

+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| South Africa,  |                 |                 |                 |
| Republic of    |                 |                 |                 |
|                |                 |                 |                 |
| Canned Pears   |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Time Period    | Jan-Dec         | Units:          | MT              |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Exports for:   | 2002            |                 | 2003            |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **U.S.**       | **5,373**       | **U.S.**        | **2,802**       |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others         |                 | Others          |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Japan          | 3,491           | Germany         | 4,609           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| U.K.           | 3,344           | U.K.            | 4,329           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Germany        | 2,751           | Japan           | 3,686           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Switzerland    | 2,163           | Netherlands     | 3,002           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Belgium        | 1,987           | Canada          | 2,312           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Netherlands    | 1,444           | Switzerland     | 2,208           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Canada         | 1,227           | Belgium         | 1,610           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Greece         | 842             | Thailand        | 1,197           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| France         | 664             | France          | 839             |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Austria        | 491             | Austria         | 612             |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for    | **18404**       |                 | **24404**       |
| Others**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Others not   | **3,285**       |                 | **2,259**       |
| Listed**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand        | **27062**       |                 | **29465**       |
| Total**        |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+

South Africa's 2003 canned pear exports increased by 9% compared to
2002. Exports to Germany grew by 68%, doubled to Netherlands, and
increased by 88% to Canada. Thailand joined the 10 major export
destinations. Exports to the U.S. decreased by about 48%.

+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| South Africa,  |                 |                 |                 |
| Republic of    |                 |                 |                 |
|                |                 |                 |                 |
| Canned         |                 |                 |                 |
| Apricots       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Time Period    | Jan-Dec         | Units:          | MT              |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Imports for:   | 2002            |                 | 2003            |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **U.S.**       | **0**           | **U.S.**        | **0**           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others         |                 | Others          |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Netherlands    | 0.024           | China           | 18.994          |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
|                |                 | Belgium         | 18.8            |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
|                |                 | Australia       | 2.281           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
|                |                 | Saudi Arabia    | 1.5             |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
|                |                 | Lebanon         | 1.351           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
|                |                 | Thailand        | 0.571           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for    | **0.024**       |                 | **43.497**      |
| Others**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Others not   | **0**           |                 | **0**           |
| Listed**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand        | **0.024**       |                 | **43.497**      |
| Total**        |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+

+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| South Africa,  |                 |                 |                 |
| Republic of    |                 |                 |                 |
|                |                 |                 |                 |
| Canned         |                 |                 |                 |
| Apricots       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Time Period    | Jan-Dec         | Units:          | MT              |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Exports for:   | 2002            |                 | 2003            |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **U.S.**       | **537**         | **U.S.**        | **177**         |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others         |                 | Others          |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Germany        | 9,665           | Germany         | 10,995          |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| U.K.           | 2,375           | U.K.            | 2,526           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Netherlands    | 2,071           | Japan           | 2,078           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Japan          | 1,998           | Netherlands     | 1,181           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Switzerland    | 1,477           | Belgium         | 908             |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Belgium        | 1,315           | Austria         | 853             |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| France         | 767             | Switzerland     | 771             |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Austria        | 747             | Italy           | 681             |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Italy          | 629             | France          | 605             |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Israel         | 614             | New Zealand     | 530             |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for    | **21658**       |                 | **21128**       |
| Others**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Others not   | **1743**        |                 | **2291**        |
| Listed**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand        | **23938**       |                 | **23596**       |
| Total**        |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+

South Africa's total exports of canned apricots remained fairly constant
in 2003 compared to a year earlier. Major markets were maintained.
However, exports to the U.S. dropped by 67%, and increases were made to
New Zealand, lifting it to a position within the major 10 export
destinations.

+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| South Africa,  |                 |                 |                 |
| Republic of    |                 |                 |                 |
|                |                 |                 |                 |
| ###### C       |                 |                 |                 |
| anned Mixtures |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Time Period    | Jan-Dec         | Units:          | MT              |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Imports for:   | 2002            |                 | 2003            |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **U.S.**       | **0**           | **U.S.**        | **0**           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others         |                 | Others          |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Netherlands    | 49.68           | Turkey          | 99              |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Taiwan         | 2.954           | Lebanon         | 12.592          |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| U.K.           | 2.462           | Thailand        | 3.467           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Germany        | 1.054           |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for    | **56.15**       |                 | **115.059**     |
| Others**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Others not   | **1.221**       |                 | **0.26**        |
| Listed**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand        | **57.371**      |                 | **115.319**     |
| Total**        |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+

+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| South Africa,  |                 |                 |                 |
| Republic of    |                 |                 |                 |
|                |                 |                 |                 |
| Canned         |                 |                 |                 |
| Mixtures       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Time Period    | Jan-Dec         | Units:          | MT              |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Exports for:   | 2002            |                 | 2003            |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **U.S.**       | **1,355**       | **U.S.**        | **872**         |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Others         |                 | Others          |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Japan          | 4,847           | Japan           | 5,443           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| U.K.           | 3,256           | U.K.            | 4,603           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Canada         | 2,518           | Germany         | 3,848           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Switzerland    | 2,324           | Switzerland     | 2,976           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Singapore      | 2,153           | Canada          | 2,794           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Germany        | 2,064           | Singapore       | 1,935           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Austria        | 1,863           | Austria         | 1,929           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Philippines    | 1,357           | Belgium         | 1,425           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Belgium        | 1,256           | Netherlands     | 1,190           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Lebanon        | 1,006           | Philippines     | 1,181           |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Total for    | **22644**       |                 | **27324**       |
| Others**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Others not   | **7988**        |                 | **7051**        |
| Listed**       |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| **Grand        | **31987**       |                 | **35247**       |
| Total**        |                 |                 |                 |
+----------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+

The 2003 exports of South African canned fruit mixtures to the U.S.
decreased by about 36%.

South Africa increased total canned mixed fruit export by 10%, and
maintained all major export destinations.

# Stocks

South Africa's 2004 total ending stocks is expected to decline by 9%
compared to last year because more canned production will be used for
exports and some to satisfy the domestic demand. Decrease of stocks is
expected for canned peaches (25%) and fruit mixtures (33%), while
increases will be realized on pears and apricots.

## Stocks Subcategory

# Policy

In 2004, the industry expects to start to reap the benefit of reduced
import duties for stonefruit and tablegrapes resulting from SA-EU FTA.
The EU is expected to phase-out duties at the rate of 16% per annum
until 2010.

## Policy Subcategory

# Marketing

South Africa's individual canners develop and fund their own local and
international promotional strategies, and participate annually in SIAL,
Paris, ANUGA, and Cologne food fairs.

## Marketing Subcategory