Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 8/13/2003

**GAIN Report Number:** GM3024

GM3024

**Germany**

**Fresh Deciduous Fruit**

**Prognosfruit 2003 - European Crop Forecast Convention**

**2003**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Karina Ramos

#### U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Sabine M. Lieberz

**Report Highlights:**

The EU-15 crop for fresh apples in 2003 is forecast at 6.947 million MT.
This is a decline of 3 percent compared to the already low crop of 2002.
Production of fresh pears is forecast at 2.173 million MT, versus 2.408
million MT in 2002. This is a decrease of 10 percent. This forecast
reflects the situation of mid-July. Due to continued lack of rain, the
actual crop is expected to be even smaller.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Berlin \[GM1\]

\[GM\]

**Introduction**

Prognosfruit is the annual European crop forecast colloquium for apples
and pears. It was first organized in 1975 with 33 experts from 6
countries. Prognosfruit 2003 was held on August 8, 2003 in Cologne, with
more than 250 participants from 24 countries, Prognosfruit 2004 will be
held in Lublin/Poland on August 6 and 7, 2004.

Abbreviations:

MT = metric ton(s)

CC = candidate countries for EU accession in April of 2004

#### Forecast for Apples

####### EU-15

The EU-15 crop for apples in 2003 is forecast at 6.947 million MT. This
is a decline of 3 percent compared to the already low crop of 2002,
which amounted to 7.139 million MT, and 11 percent below the average of
the years 1999 through 2002. This forecast is based on crop travel done
in mid-July. Due to a lack of rain, the actual crop is expected to be
even below this forecast.

The main reasons for the low crop are

-   Late frosts killed some of the blossoms/young fruit

-   Little precipitation resulted in reduced fruit size.

-   The current heat wave resulted in earlier maturation in northern
    European countries. When the fruit is harvested earlier, it has less
    days for fruit growth, and the fruit remains smaller and less heavy.

-   The reduction in area is not compensated for by an increase in
    productivity. From 1997 to 2002, apple area in the EU-15 decreased
    by 2.5 percent per year.

Despite the smaller crop, fruit quality is expected to be very good.
Hail damage occurred in only a few regions. However, because of the heat
wave the fruit size is smaller than usual.

The market for apples is expected to be good with high prices,
especially at the beginning of the season, because

-   Almost all of last season's apples have been sold already, so that
    there is no competition from this side.

-   Competition from other fruits such as peaches, nectarines, and kiwis
    is not as strong as in other years, as those fruits also had a lower
    crop.

-   Farmers and producer organizations usually tend to put a higher
    percentage of their crop into storage with small crops than with
    bigger harvests. There are several reasons for this phenomenon.
    First of all they hope for increasing prices was the season
    progresses. Second, they want to ensure that they have produce to
    sell over the entire season, and third, storage capacity is adapted
    to hold a certain percentage of an average crop. If the crop is
    bigger the surplus volumes will have to be marketed directly at the
    beginning of the season. If the crop is smaller, there is less
    pressure to sell early, therefore further reducing the availability
    of fruit at the beginning of the season.

EU exports are expected to decline due to the smaller crop combined with
the strong Euro, which makes EU apples less competitive on the world
market. For the same reasons, EU imports are expected to increase.

####### EU-25

Apple production of the EU accession countries is forecast at 3.353
million MT. This an increase of 6 percent compared to the 2002 crop of
3.155 million MT.

The crop for EU-25 amounts to 10.300 MT, which is almost the exact same
size as last year's crop.

#### Forecast for Pears

EU-15 production of pears is forecast at 2.173 million MT, compared to
2.408 million MT in 2002. This is a decrease of 10 percent. Compared to
the average of 1999 through 2002, the decrease is only 6 percent. The
reasons for a reduced crops are basically the same as with apples. The
average annual reduction in area between 1997 and 2002 was 2.5 percent.
All countries but Belgium and the Netherlands have reduced their pear
acreage over the past years. The reduction affects all pear varieties
but "Conference."

The market prospects for pears in the coming season are good. The lower
availability of pears and competing fruits is expected to result in
higher prices and higher imports.

### Section II: Statistical Data

**Table 1: EU-15 and new members' apple production, by country (1,000
metric tons)**

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 11%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Country</td>
<td>1995</td>
<td>1996</td>
<td>1997</td>
<td>1998</td>
<td>1999</td>
<td>2000</td>
<td>2001</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td><p><strong>2003</strong></p>
<p><strong>Forecast</strong></p></td>
<td><p>%2003</p>
<p>versus</p>
<p>2002</p></td>
<td><p>%2003/</p>
<p>Average</p>
<p>99-02</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Italy</td>
<td>1,889</td>
<td>2,025</td>
<td>2,042</td>
<td>2,165</td>
<td>2,196</td>
<td>2,206</td>
<td>2,172</td>
<td>2,171</td>
<td><strong>2,038</strong></td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>-7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>France</td>
<td>1,980</td>
<td>1,900</td>
<td>2,051</td>
<td>1,750</td>
<td>2,230</td>
<td>2,260</td>
<td>1,938</td>
<td>1,966</td>
<td><strong>1,918</strong></td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Germany</td>
<td>573</td>
<td>878</td>
<td>765</td>
<td>977</td>
<td>1,036</td>
<td>1,131</td>
<td>922</td>
<td>763</td>
<td><strong>867</strong></td>
<td>14</td>
<td>-10</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Spain</td>
<td>780</td>
<td>849</td>
<td>821</td>
<td>680</td>
<td>837</td>
<td>683</td>
<td>806</td>
<td>646</td>
<td><strong>655</strong></td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-12</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Netherlands</td>
<td>595</td>
<td>490</td>
<td>470</td>
<td>507</td>
<td>575</td>
<td>500</td>
<td>475</td>
<td>370</td>
<td><strong>385</strong></td>
<td>4</td>
<td>-20</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Portugal</td>
<td>235</td>
<td>257</td>
<td>286</td>
<td>160</td>
<td>295</td>
<td>227</td>
<td>265</td>
<td>300</td>
<td><strong>300</strong></td>
<td>0</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Belgium</td>
<td>508</td>
<td>295</td>
<td>367</td>
<td>407</td>
<td>534</td>
<td>500</td>
<td>337</td>
<td>349</td>
<td><strong>274</strong></td>
<td>-21</td>
<td>-36</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Greece</td>
<td>315</td>
<td>372</td>
<td>274</td>
<td>356</td>
<td>257</td>
<td>288</td>
<td>194</td>
<td>244</td>
<td><strong>200</strong></td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-19</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Austria</td>
<td>128</td>
<td>134</td>
<td>162</td>
<td>128</td>
<td>148</td>
<td>161</td>
<td>156</td>
<td>163</td>
<td><strong>152</strong></td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>-3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>UK</td>
<td>254</td>
<td>248</td>
<td>152</td>
<td>217</td>
<td>256</td>
<td>195</td>
<td>212</td>
<td>124</td>
<td><strong>133</strong></td>
<td>7</td>
<td>-33</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Denmark</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>25</td>
<td><strong>25</strong></td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-16</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Sweden</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>20</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>EU-15*</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,305</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,497</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,443</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,394</strong></td>
<td><strong>8,415</strong></td>
<td><strong>8,206</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,528</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,139</strong></td>
<td><strong>6,947</strong></td>
<td><strong>-3</strong></td>
<td><strong>-11</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Poland**</td>
<td>1,289</td>
<td>1,952</td>
<td>2,098</td>
<td>1,687</td>
<td>1,604</td>
<td>2,000</td>
<td>2,484</td>
<td>2,168</td>
<td><strong>2,300</strong></td>
<td>6</td>
<td>11</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Hungary</td>
<td>353</td>
<td>552</td>
<td>500</td>
<td>482</td>
<td>443</td>
<td>695</td>
<td>605</td>
<td>527</td>
<td><strong>488</strong></td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-14</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Lithuania**</td>
<td>121</td>
<td>81</td>
<td>218</td>
<td>110</td>
<td>110</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>155</td>
<td>120</td>
<td><strong>180</strong></td>
<td>50</td>
<td>48</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Czech Rep.</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>117</td>
<td>148</td>
<td>107</td>
<td>140</td>
<td>195</td>
<td>141</td>
<td>155</td>
<td><strong>154</strong></td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Slovakia**</td>
<td>52</td>
<td>105</td>
<td>106</td>
<td>109</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>108</td>
<td>77</td>
<td>79</td>
<td><strong>91</strong></td>
<td>16</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Slovenia</td>
<td>49</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>54</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>59</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>42</td>
<td><strong>62</strong></td>
<td>48</td>
<td>27</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Latvia**</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>36</td>
<td>50</td>
<td><strong>60</strong></td>
<td>20</td>
<td>29</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Estonia**</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>15</td>
<td><strong>18</strong></td>
<td>20</td>
<td>41</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>CC-10</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,054</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,886</strong></td>
<td><strong>3,233</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,582</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,523</strong></td>
<td><strong>3,198</strong></td>
<td><strong>3,551</strong></td>
<td><strong>3,155</strong></td>
<td><strong>3,353</strong></td>
<td><strong>6</strong></td>
<td><strong>8</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>EU-25</strong></td>
<td><strong>9,360</strong></td>
<td><strong>10,383</strong></td>
<td><strong>10,676</strong></td>
<td><strong>9,976</strong></td>
<td><strong>10,938</strong></td>
<td><strong>11,404</strong></td>
<td><strong>11,079</strong></td>
<td><strong>10,294</strong></td>
<td><strong>10,300</strong></td>
<td><strong>0</strong></td>
<td><strong>–6</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

\*) As far as listed above, \*\*) Incl, back gardens,

Source: Prognosfruit 2003, Cologne

**Table 2: EU-15 apple production, by variety (1,000 metric tons) \*)**

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 14%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Variety</td>
<td>1995</td>
<td>1996</td>
<td>1997</td>
<td>1998</td>
<td>1999</td>
<td>2000</td>
<td>2001</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td><p>2003</p>
<p>Forecast</p></td>
<td><p>%2003</p>
<p>versus</p>
<p>2002</p></td>
<td><p>%2003/</p>
<p>Average</p>
<p>99-02</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Golden D</td>
<td>2,684</td>
<td>2,634</td>
<td>2,776</td>
<td>2,526</td>
<td>2,826</td>
<td>2,721</td>
<td>2,618</td>
<td>2,485</td>
<td><strong>2,323</strong></td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-13</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Gala</td>
<td>208</td>
<td>344</td>
<td>407</td>
<td>440</td>
<td>560</td>
<td>643</td>
<td>676</td>
<td>718</td>
<td><strong>763</strong></td>
<td>6</td>
<td>18</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Jonagold</td>
<td>735</td>
<td>577</td>
<td>618</td>
<td>714</td>
<td>842</td>
<td>808</td>
<td>613</td>
<td>600</td>
<td><strong>562</strong></td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>-21</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Red Delicious</td>
<td>790</td>
<td>823</td>
<td>739</td>
<td>774</td>
<td>783</td>
<td>791</td>
<td>674</td>
<td>703</td>
<td><strong>529</strong></td>
<td>-25</td>
<td>-28</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Granny Smith</td>
<td>394</td>
<td>431</td>
<td>415</td>
<td>369</td>
<td>385</td>
<td>424</td>
<td>346</td>
<td>358</td>
<td><strong>351</strong></td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Elstar</td>
<td>336</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>312</td>
<td>359</td>
<td>428</td>
<td>406</td>
<td>395</td>
<td>337</td>
<td><strong>338</strong></td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-14</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Braeburn</td>
<td>53</td>
<td>84</td>
<td>104</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>174</td>
<td>207</td>
<td>210</td>
<td>248</td>
<td><strong>259</strong></td>
<td>4</td>
<td>23</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Morgenduft</td>
<td>179</td>
<td>188</td>
<td>218</td>
<td>187</td>
<td>158</td>
<td>157</td>
<td>137</td>
<td>134</td>
<td><strong>149</strong></td>
<td>11</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Jonagored</td>
<td>57</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>81</td>
<td>116</td>
<td>151</td>
<td>169</td>
<td>150</td>
<td>134</td>
<td><strong>133</strong></td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-12</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Cox Orange</td>
<td>184</td>
<td>197</td>
<td>164</td>
<td>182</td>
<td>202</td>
<td>145</td>
<td>165</td>
<td>84</td>
<td><strong>112</strong></td>
<td>33</td>
<td>-25</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Idared</td>
<td>127</td>
<td>139</td>
<td>123</td>
<td>135</td>
<td>137</td>
<td>148</td>
<td>122</td>
<td>117</td>
<td><strong>112</strong></td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-15</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Boskoop</td>
<td>120</td>
<td>134</td>
<td>137</td>
<td>159</td>
<td>196</td>
<td>174</td>
<td>142</td>
<td>91</td>
<td><strong>103</strong></td>
<td>13</td>
<td>-32</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Fuji</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>71</td>
<td>80</td>
<td><strong>93</strong></td>
<td>16</td>
<td>34</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Renette du C.</td>
<td>132</td>
<td>114</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>84</td>
<td>82</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>79</td>
<td><strong>71</strong></td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>-10</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Gloster</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>184</td>
<td>139</td>
<td>136</td>
<td>113</td>
<td>105</td>
<td>82</td>
<td>52</td>
<td><strong>68</strong></td>
<td>31</td>
<td>-23</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Bramley</td>
<td>121</td>
<td>109</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>117</td>
<td>95</td>
<td>99</td>
<td>60</td>
<td><strong>55</strong></td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>-41</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Pink Lady</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>15</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>55</td>
<td><strong>53</strong></td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>50</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Annurca</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>78</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>81</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>79</td>
<td><strong>40</strong></td>
<td>-49</td>
<td>-52</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Stayman</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>32</td>
<td><strong>25</strong></td>
<td>-22</td>
<td>-28</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Others</td>
<td>954</td>
<td>998</td>
<td>910</td>
<td>865</td>
<td>1070</td>
<td>912</td>
<td>793</td>
<td>693</td>
<td><strong>808</strong></td>
<td>17</td>
<td>-7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>EU-15</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,305</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,497</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,443</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,394</strong></td>
<td><strong>8,415</strong></td>
<td><strong>8,206</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,528</strong></td>
<td><strong>7,139</strong></td>
<td><strong>6,947</strong></td>
<td><strong>-3</strong></td>
<td><strong>-11</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

\*) Variety breakdown does not include Portugal,

Source: Prognosfruit 2003, Cologne

**Table 3: EU-15 and new members' pear production, by country ( 1 000
metric tons) \*\*\*\***

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 15%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Country</td>
<td>1995</td>
<td>1996</td>
<td>1997</td>
<td>1998</td>
<td>1999</td>
<td>2000</td>
<td>2001</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td><p><strong>2003</strong></p>
<p><strong>Forecast</strong></p></td>
<td><p>%2003</p>
<p>versus</p>
<p>2002</p></td>
<td><p>%2003/</p>
<p>Average</p>
<p>99-02</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Italy</td>
<td>958</td>
<td>1,074</td>
<td>659</td>
<td>1,115</td>
<td>784</td>
<td>876</td>
<td>793</td>
<td>948</td>
<td><strong>877</strong></td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Spain</td>
<td>457</td>
<td>650</td>
<td>577</td>
<td>563</td>
<td>682</td>
<td>597</td>
<td>660</td>
<td>603</td>
<td><strong>596</strong></td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>France</td>
<td>316</td>
<td>331</td>
<td>234</td>
<td>246</td>
<td>288</td>
<td>259</td>
<td>254</td>
<td>237</td>
<td><strong>189</strong></td>
<td>-20</td>
<td>-27</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Netherlands</td>
<td>165</td>
<td>135</td>
<td>145</td>
<td>140</td>
<td>135</td>
<td>195</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>179</td>
<td><strong>160</strong></td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>11</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Belgium</td>
<td>156</td>
<td>137</td>
<td>130</td>
<td>151</td>
<td>165</td>
<td>180</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>173</td>
<td><strong>142</strong></td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Portugal</td>
<td>74</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>174</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>131</td>
<td>142</td>
<td>142</td>
<td>125</td>
<td><strong>88</strong></td>
<td>-30</td>
<td>-35</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Germany*</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>54</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>64</td>
<td><strong>60</strong></td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Greece</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>73</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>62</td>
<td>53</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>39</td>
<td><strong>30</strong></td>
<td>-22</td>
<td>-40</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>United Kingdom</td>
<td>36</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>35</td>
<td><strong>28</strong></td>
<td>-20</td>
<td>-8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Denmark</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>5</td>
<td><strong>4</strong></td>
<td>-30</td>
<td>-31</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Sweden</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>EU-15**</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,264</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,585</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,029</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,388</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,325</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,409</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,141</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,408</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,173</strong></td>
<td><strong>-10</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Poland ***</td>
<td>90</td>
<td>83</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>83</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>82</td>
<td>77</td>
<td>90</td>
<td><strong>80</strong></td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Slovakia ***</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>4</td>
<td><strong>5</strong></td>
<td>12</td>
<td>-25</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Czech Republic</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>2</td>
<td><strong>2</strong></td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-12</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Slovenia</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>6</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>CC-10</strong></td>
<td><strong>112</strong></td>
<td><strong>102</strong></td>
<td><strong>54</strong></td>
<td><strong>103</strong></td>
<td><strong>83</strong></td>
<td><strong>98</strong></td>
<td><strong>82</strong></td>
<td><strong>96</strong></td>
<td><strong>92</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4</strong></td>
<td><strong>3</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><h6 id="eu-25-1">EU-25</h6></td>
<td><strong>2,375</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,688</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,083</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,491</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,408</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,507</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,223</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,504</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,266</strong></td>
<td><strong>-10</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

\* Due to the estimation method used by the German official statistics
for pears the results for 2002 (76,100 t) are excessive and not
comparable to previous years. For that reason it has been replaced by a
ZMP estimation.

\*\* As far as listed above

\*\*\* Incl. back gardens

\*\*\*\* Variety breakdown does not include Portugal

Source: Prognosfruit 2003, Cologne

**Table 4: EU-15 pear production, by variety ( 1,000 metric tons)**

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 14%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Variety</td>
<td>1995</td>
<td>1996</td>
<td>1997</td>
<td>1998</td>
<td>1999</td>
<td>2000</td>
<td>2001</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td><p>2003</p>
<p>Forecast</p></td>
<td><p>%2003</p>
<p>versus</p>
<p>2002</p></td>
<td><p>%2003/</p>
<p>Average</p>
<p>99-02</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Conference</td>
<td>473</td>
<td>529</td>
<td>470</td>
<td>551</td>
<td>587</td>
<td>573</td>
<td>490</td>
<td>637</td>
<td>635</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>12</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Abate Fetel</td>
<td>197</td>
<td>257</td>
<td>180</td>
<td>309</td>
<td>212</td>
<td>242</td>
<td>225</td>
<td>282</td>
<td>259</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>William BC</td>
<td>294</td>
<td>347</td>
<td>189</td>
<td>306</td>
<td>254</td>
<td>286</td>
<td>269</td>
<td>288</td>
<td>248</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>-10</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Blanquilla</td>
<td>180</td>
<td>286</td>
<td>236</td>
<td>226</td>
<td>233</td>
<td>221</td>
<td>240</td>
<td>196</td>
<td>190</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>-15</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Doyenne</td>
<td>175</td>
<td>158</td>
<td>116</td>
<td>177</td>
<td>107</td>
<td>131</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>162</td>
<td>106</td>
<td>-35</td>
<td>-9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Guyot</td>
<td>146</td>
<td>168</td>
<td>140</td>
<td>114</td>
<td>135</td>
<td>105</td>
<td>118</td>
<td>117</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>-15</td>
<td>-16</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Coscia</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>76</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>116</td>
<td>110</td>
<td>99</td>
<td>103</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>-17</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Kaiser</td>
<td>103</td>
<td>89</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>88</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>50</td>
<td>59</td>
<td>71</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>35</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Red Barlett</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Passacrassana</td>
<td>76</td>
<td>71</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>62</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>40</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>-23</td>
<td>-6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Kristalli</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-27</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Others</td>
<td>458</td>
<td>436</td>
<td>329</td>
<td>350</td>
<td>531</td>
<td>614</td>
<td>514</td>
<td>473</td>
<td>397</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-26</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>EU-15</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,264</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,585</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,029</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,388</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,325</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,409</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,141</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,408</strong></td>
<td><strong>2,173</strong></td>
<td><strong>-10</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Source: Prognosfruit 2003, Cologne