**[2008 Summer Drought Outlook for Central NC]{.underline}**

**NOAA's National Weather Service Office in Raleigh**

**June 13, 2008**

Spring rains and rising water levels eased drought conditions earlier
this year, but with the recent hot, dry weather drought is slowly
returning Central North Carolina began to experience more frequent
rainfall in March, which continued into early May. This resulted in our
year-to-date rainfall climbing to near normal levels, and short term
drought indicators showed great improvement by mid May (Figure 1).

![](media/image1.jpeg){width="3.3625in"
height="1.7763888888888888in"}![](media/image2.jpeg){width="3.38125in"
height="1.8111111111111111in"}

Figure 1: North Carolina Drought Monitor on 03/04/08 and 05/20/08. Image
courtesy of [http://www.ncdrought.org](http://www.ncdrought.org/)

Unfortunately thus far in June, stationary high pressure over the
western Gulf of Mexico, has produced hot and dry conditions across the
entire eastern United States (Figure 2). In central North Carolina,
temperatures climbed into the mid 90s on the 4^th^ of June, and much of
the area recorded highs in the triple digits on 4 days from the 7^th^
through the 10^th^. Five consecutive record high temperatures were set
during this period at the Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU).

![](media/image3.png){width="5.190277777777778in"
height="4.010416666666667in"}

> Figure 2: Temperature Anomaly for early June -- NC averaged about 10
> degrees above normal
>
> through the period. Image courtesy of NOAA.

A summary of high temperatures through this period (an asterisk \*
denotes a new record high, a caret \^ denotes a tied record high ):

6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11

Fayetteville 97 97 97 99 101 101 99 96

Greensboro 92 95 96\^ 97\* 97 98 97\^ 89

Raleigh 94 96 99\* 100\* 101\* 100\* 101\* 93

There was virtually no rainfall across the area through the 10^th^ of
June (Figure 3), and evaporation took a heavy toll on topsoil moisture.
Crops began showing stress, with corn plants indicating their distress
by curling their leaves to conserve moisture.

![](media/image4.png){width="4.629166666666666in"
height="2.542361111111111in"}

Figure 3: Percentage of Normal Rainfall thus far in June. Image courtesy
of NOAA

In addition, stream flows, which had edged up into normal range earlier
in the Spring, fell to below 10 percent of median (Figure 4), indicating
an ongoing deeper soil moisture deficit.

![](media/image5.png){width="3.5625in" height="2.49375in"}

![](media/image6.png){width="2.4875in" height="0.5131944444444444in"}

Figure 4: Stream Flow percentage of median. Image courtesy of the US
Geological Survey

The U.S. Drought Monitor began to upgrade drought conditions across
central NC in response to these worsening impacts (Figure 5). In Figure
5, note the increased percentages of area in drought since the beginning
of June, and especially the percentage of area in drought as compared to
this date last year.

![](media/image7.png){width="7.503472222222222in"
height="2.921527777777778in"}

Figure 5: North Carolina Drought Monitor from 06/12/08. Image courtesy
of [http://www.ncdrought.org](http://www.ncdrought.org/)

Water supply reservoirs benefitted greatly from the relatively wet spell
during the early Spring, and Lake Michie and Falls Lake are both near
100 percent of water supply. In recent weeks lake levels have begun to
creep downwards (Figure 6) and this trend should continue as strong
evaporation, low stream flows, and increasing public consumption
increase demand on the water supply.

![](media/image8.jpeg){width="4.686111111111111in" height="3.88125in"}

Figure 6: Falls Lake level and inflow into the lake for the past 2
weeks. Image courtesy of the US Army Corps of Engineers.

The short term rainfall forecast (Figure 7) is dominated by high
pressure which will remain over the western gulf area. This high
pressure will suppress rain by blocking moisture from flowing into the
area through late month, but it will produce cooler temperatures, as our
flow will be predominantly from the northwest.

![](media/image9.png){width="5.975694444444445in"
height="3.803472222222222in"}

Figure 7: Rainfall forecast for June 19-25. Image courtesy of NOAA.

As we head deeper into the summer, the forecast becomes more ambiguous
(Figure 8) for July and August as there is no strong climatological
signal which might suggest either a rainfall surplus or deficit. This is
the time of year where we rarely see strong systems sweeping eastward
across the continental U.S., and we become more reliant on scattered
late day shower and thunderstorm activity to produce rainfall. This
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity can be very unreliable, and
it is not possible to forecast such activity beyond a few days.

![](media/image10.png){width="4.3125in" height="3.3604166666666666in"}

Figure 8: Rainfall forecast for June, July and August. Image courtesy of
NOAA.

**Websites**

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

[http://www.drought.gov](http://www.drought.gov/)

NC Drought Monitor

[http://www.ncdrought.org](http://www.ncdrought.org/)

State Climate Office of North Carolina

<http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/>

National Weather Service Raleigh, NC

<http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/>

Climate Prediction Center

[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov](http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/)

US Geological Survey

[http://www.usgs.gov](http://www.usgs.gov/)