**[NASA Office of Earth Science -- Applications Program]{.smallcaps}**

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*Aviation Weather Applications Program*

***Program Plan: 2003-2007***

![](media/image1.wmf){width="1.1902777777777778in"
height="0.9840277777777777in"}*Science for Society*

> *Accelerating the realization of economic*
>
> *and societal benefits from Earth science,*
>
> *information, and technology ...*

**Contents**

**I. Purpose and Scope**

**II. Aviation Weather Applications Program Operating Plan for FY 2003**

**a. Program Management**

**b. Primary Program Elements**

**c. Program Overview**

**1. Missions, Models, and Decision Support Systems**

**2. Roadmap**

**d. Goals and Objectives**

**III. Support Functions**

**a. Education and Outreach**

**b. Partnership Strategy**

**c. Interoperability**

**d. Related currently funded efforts**

**IV Gantt Chart of Schedule, Milestones and Deliverables**

**V. Budget Spreadsheets**

**Appendix I Statements of Work for FY 2003**

a.  **UW CIMSS Core ASAP Team**

b.  **NCAR RAP Turbulence Research**

c.  **NASA LaRC Icing Research**

d.  **2003 Pacific THORPEX Operational Science Test Plan**

> **e. NCAR ATD Driftsonde System**

**Aviatiion Weather Applications Program**

*Program Plan: 2003-2007*

**I. Purpose and Scope**

[ESE & Applications Program]{.underline}

The purpose of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) is to increase our
knowledge of the Earth system, including its response to natural and
human-induced changes to enable improved predictions of climate,
weather, and natural hazards. ESE and the Applications Program serve
NASA and Society by expanding and accelerating the realization of
societal and economic benefits from Earth science, information, and
technology research and development.

The overarching goal of the Applications Program is to bridge the gap
between Earth science research results and the adoption of data and
prediction capabilities for reliable and sustained use in decision
support.

The Enterprise works through partnerships with public, academic, and
private organizations to develop innovative approaches for using Earth
science information and technology. The Applications Program enhances
the availability, interoperability, and utility of Enterprise and
private sector data sets, communications, computing, and modeling
capabilities to serve specific national applications.

Overall, the approach is to enable the assimilation of Earth science
data and model outputs to serve as inputs to decision support tools and
assessments. Developments may be specific to a national application or
may be served through a cross-cutting solution. The outcomes and impacts
are manifest in enhanced decision support and the social and economic
benefits gained through improved decision making, public information,
and efficient and effective management.

[National Applications]{.underline}

The specific National Applications partner with organizations,
especially Federal and private-sector organizations, with appropriate
information infrastructure to apply NASA data and models. These partners
own and operate Decision Support Systems for their policy, analysis and
management responsibilities.

The Applications Program supports the national applications by providing
the partners with opportunities to enhance their Decision Support
Systems. A challenge is to integrate copious volumes of data with
computationally demanding scientific models in order to produce and
package products that operational users can accommodate in their systems
for analysis and decision making. Decision Support Systems provide
systematic mechanisms to handle the volumes of data, incorporate model
outputs and predictions, and benchmark the value of the products.

The Enterprise Applications Program employs functional steps of
Applications Research, Verification & Validation, and Benchmarking in
its systematic approach to bridge the gaps between the research and
operational domains.

> *Applications Research*: Evaluate the requirements and technical
> feasibility of Earth science data and models, information products,
> and predictions in partners' operational decision support needs.
>
> *Verification & Validation*: Measure the performance characteristics
> of data, information, models, and predictions to meet requirements for
> the applications.
>
> *Benchmark*: Enable the adaptation and adoption of geospatial
> information and methods derived from Earth science results to serve
> decision support

The desired outcome of the national applications is for the partner
organization to use the project results, such as guidelines and
prototypes and procedures, as benchmarks for operational use and enhance
their management and decision-making capabilities with appropriate Earth
science products and tools.

The following Program Plan describes the activities for a systematic
approach to evaluate, verify, benchmark, and extend the use of Earth
Science knowledge, data, and technology to support our partners'
decision support tools and management responsibilities.

**II. Aviation Weather Applications Program Operating Plan - Fiscal Year
2003**

**a. Program Management**

Robert A. Venezia, Dr.P.H.

Program Manager for Aviation Weather Applications

NASA Headquarters

John J. Murray

Deputy Program Manager for Aviation Weather Applications

Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products (ASAP) Project Manager

NASA Langley Research Center

**b. Primary Program Elements**

NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP)

Weather Accident Prevention Project (WxAP)

Aviation Weather Information Element (AWIN)

Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products Sub-element (ASAP)

FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP)

AWRP Convective Weather Product Development Team (PDT)

AWRP In-flight Icing PDT

AWRP Oceanic Weather PDT

AWRP Turbulence PDT

NOAA Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)

NOAA /University of Wisconsin (CIMSS) ASAP Support Team

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

NCAR Research Applications Program (RAP)

NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC)

NASA LaRC Atmospheric Sciences Competency (AtSC)

NASA LaRC AtSC Satellite Icing Research Team

NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC)

WxAP In-flight Icing Element

NASA Stennis Space Center

Earth Sciiences Applications Directorate

**c. Program Overview**

The purpose of this operating plan is to chart near-term directions for
the Aviation Weather Applications Program. In this plan, Fiscal Year
2003 is best characterized as a Program-implementation year. Emphasis
will be placed on enabling research strategies outlined in the Advanced
Satellite Aviation-weather Products (ASAP) Requirements Study that was
conducted in Fiscal Year 2002. These strategies were developed in
consonance with the common objectives of the NASA Earth Science
Enterprise Aviation Weather Applications Program, the NASA Aviation
Safety Program and the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program. Research
objectives will be further focused in the best interests of the nation
after careful consideration of an ASAP Benefits Analysis that will be
completed during the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2003. This is geared
to ensure the alignment of existing investments with the *ESE
Applications Strategy for 2002-2012*, identifying and defining
requirements for additional aviation safety decision support system
products, and building Program capacity in certain critical areas to
support current and future partnerships. Specifically, the critical
areas include: 1) maximizing infusion of satellite data sources into the
National Airspace System (NAS), 2) outreach toward NAS managers and
users, and 3) inter-disciplinary collaboration and training for key
researchers and service providers in those partner agencies.

The overall direction of the Program for FY03 is to enable and
strengthen NASA\'s partnerships with the aviation safety community
beginning with the Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products (ASAP)
initiative and to sustain those partnerships throughout the applications
process. As the goals for FY03 are met, the Program will be better able
to perform the scientific and technical advisory functions needed to
co-invest with its partners in aviation safety decision support system
enhancement and operations. Cross-disciplinary competency will enable
NASA and its partners to make better use of available academic,
commercial, and non-profit resources. This will facilitate a more
diverse investment strategy that includes competitive announcements of
opportunity, expanding cooperative agreements, and other approaches to
Program implementation.

The purpose of the near-term plan is not to build Program
infrastructure, per se. Rather, it is to equip NASA and its partners
with the tools needed to manage their joint efforts more effectively.
Given a successful implementation of ASAP during FY03, the anticipated
operating plan for FY04 will describe: 1) an inventory of current and
targeted aviation safety decision support system investments and the
partnerships supporting them, 2) technology roadmaps for the intended
improvements to those systems, and 3) recommendations for the
appropriate procurement mechanisms needed to implement the road-mapped
activities. As a result, the Program will become fully aligned with the
*Applications Strategy*, and it will be better positioned to utilize all
of its internal and external assets in the most cost-efficient and
appropriate manner.

The ASAP initiative is currently administered under the NASA Aviation
Safety Program (AvSP), Weather Accident Prevention Project (WxAP),
Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) element. It is being conducted in
partnership with the NASA Code YO, the Earth Science Enterprise
Applications Division where it is designated the NASA ESE Aviation
Weather Applications Program. This program plan is maintained at NASA
HQ, Code YO for the realization and support of that program, however
research management authority is maintained within the Aviation Safety
Program. The objectives of ASAP are 1- to fill a critical gap in the
integration of current Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
GOES imagery and sounding data in the production of operational aviation
weather products that are developed by the FAA Aviation Weather Research
Program (AWRP) and 2- to bridge the gap between developing aviation
weather products using current satellite imagery and sounding data to
integrating the next generation of of high-resolution, hyperspectral
satellite data into aviation weather product development. ASAP will
fundamentally employ data obtained by the NPOESS Airborne Sounder
Test-bed (NAST) and Scanning Hyperspectral Infrared Sounder (S-HIS)
instruments, the Airborne Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Cross-track
Infrared Sounder (CrIS) as well as Polar and Geostationary Orbiting
Environmental Satellites (POES and GOES). The goal of these efforts is
to support FAA AWRP Product Development for ground and airborne product
production and to conduct applications product demonstrations including
a NASA Geosynchronous Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS)
AWIN demonstration in FY2007. GIFTS, a major satellite project under
NASA's New Millennium Program, has been accepted as the baseline for the
next generation of atmospheric sounders to be flown by NOAA on their
GOES satellites.

**d. Goals and Objectives**

**Goal #1: Align Program investments with the Applications Division
strategy.**

[Rationale]{.underline}

This was established as a direct partnership between the NASA ESE and
the NASA Aviation Safety Program to respond to the need for the
proactive infusion of ESE satellite data and expertise into the
production of operational aviation weather products and services and to
align this effort with the *Earth Science Enterprise Applications
Strategy for 2002-2012.* This partnership directly responds to evolving
national aviation safety priorities identified jointly by NASA and the
FAA in the development of aviation safety objectives and the necessary
project elements required to meet these objectives. These elements focus
on the infusion of NASA ESE data and expertise for the enhancement of
aviation weather nowcasting and forecasting products which include but
are not limited to aviation weather hazards such as:

1.  Convective Weather

2.  Ceiling and Visibility

3.  In-flight Icing

4.  Clear Air and Convectively Induced Turbulence

5.  Flight Level Wind

6.  Volcanic Effluents

To meet this goal the following objective was met:

# 

# Objective #1 

# 

# To align all project activities with the *Applications Strategy*. This objective has been met and the implementation phase has begun. These activities have included:

1\. the establishment of goals and objectives for the identified
decision support systems including a preliminary roadmap of the basic
research, applied research, verification and validation, and
applications demonstration activities needed to traverse the
applications process toward decision support system enhancement.

2\. coordination with the NASA Aviation Safety Program and FAA Aviation
Weather Research Program to establish performance measures for each
element of ASAP. The Headquarters Program Office is using this
information to establish a program baseline and to report progress on
program realignment. These measures includes such details as full
information on the aviation safety partnership, decision support system
requirements, i.e. aviation hazard mitigation products, and system
architecture, among others.

3\. a line item proposed budget of individual project requirements and
resources for FY04.

[Primary Effort:]{.underline}

CoordinatedASAP Research by the NASA ESE, NASA AvSP and FAA AWRP
beginning with integrated data collection, laboratory research and
aviation weather product enhancement efforts begun in Fiscal Year 2003

[Proposed Budget for FY 2003]{.underline}

\$1,000,000 to NASA LaRC / ASAP.

A detailed research plan and budget was submitted in consonance with
NASA and FAA priorities and requirements identified in the ASAP
Requirements Study of 2002. Actual budget allocations each for ASAP
element and for major supporting functions have been identified. This
allocation has been matched with \$1,000,000 for ASAP by the NASA
Aviation Safety Program. These funds leverage a \$25,000,000 annual FAA
AWRP budget for the purpose of infusing current NASA ESE and NOAA
satellite data and future satellite data from systems developed by the
NASA ESE into operational aviation weather products developed by the
AWRP. The direction of the \$2,000,000 NASA investment for FY2003 is as
follows:

1.  \$512, 800 to University of Wisconsin CIMSS to establish a core ASAP
    team of satellite data applications development experts and begin
    targeted research

2.  \$525,200 to support ASAP Winter Data Collection Requirements

    a.  \$225,200 to NCAR RAP for Driftsonde System

    b.  \$180,000 to NASA DFRC for ER-2 Flight Services

    c.  \$109,000 to NOAA for Gulfstream IV Flight Services

    d.  \$11,000 to NASA LaRC for ASAP Scientists Field Support Costs

3.  \$100,000 to support ASAP Summer Data Collection Requirements

    a.  \$90,000 to NASA/NOAA/DOD IPO for Flight Services

    b.  \$10,000 to NASA LaRC for ASAP Scientists Field Support Costs

4.  \$70,000 to NCAR RAP for Hyperspectral Simulations by Turbulence PDT

5.  \$307,000 to NASA AvSP

    a.  \$33,800 for AvSP Program Support (AvSP, WxAP and AWIN)

    b.  \$273,200 surcharge for NASA (Code R) Aviation Security
        Initiative

6.  \$150,000 to NASA GRC and LaRC for in-flight product validation

7.  \$100,000 to NASA LaRC AtSC Satellite Icing Team

8.  \$235,000 to NASA LaRC for ESSPO and AtSC Program Support

**III. Support Functions (UNDER CONSTRUCTION)**

**a. Education and Outreach**

b.  **Partnering Strategy**

    1.  **Federal Agency Partners**

        1.  **NASA .** Aviation Safety Program, Weather Accident
            Prevention Project.

> NASA Code R (NASA Office of Aerospace Technology)
>
> NASA Code YO (NASA Earth Science Enterprise, Applications Division.)

2.  **FAA.** The FAA AWRP and the FAA LaRC Field Office are key ASAP
    partners.

3.  **NOAA CIMSS .** The NOAA Cooperative Institute for Meteorological
    Satellite Studies (CIMSS). is a key partner on the NASA GIFTS
    Project and provides the lead for GIFTS for data requirements and
    validation. The NOAA relationship with UW CIMSS spans over 25 years.
    The NWS Aviation Forecast Services Branch and NWS OS&T AWIN
    representatives are members of the ASAP advisory board.

4.  **NOAA NCEP.** The National Center for Environmental Prediction
    affiliates with ASAP through its WSRP -- Winter Storm Research
    Program. Much of ASAP's THORPEX data collection effort is leveraged
    through the WSRP.

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2.  **Academic Research Partners**

    1.  **University of Wisconsin/NOAA CIMSS.** CIMSS is NOAA's primary
        research lab for the production of geostationary weather
        satellite data applications. The University of Wisconsin, Space
        Science Engineering Center, where CIMSS is located, is a prime
        contractor on the NASA GIFTS Project.

    2.  **NCAR.** The National Center for Atmospheric Research is the
        FAA AWRP's most significant research partner.

    3.  **NOAA FSL.** The NOAA Forecast Systems Lab in Boulder, CO is a
        major FAA AWRP research partner.

    4.  **MIT Lincoln Labs.** MIT Linclon Labs is a major FAA AWRP
        research partner. Incidentially, MIT LL is also a major
        collaborator in the NAST-M (NPOESS Atmospheric Sounder Test-bed)
        project which provides airborne applications and validation data
        for the

**c. Interoperability**

**d. Related currently funded efforts**

**IV Gantt Chart of Schedule, Milestones and Deliverables**

**a.** An ASAP Gantt Chart is currently under construction. Figure 1
delineates the project timeline through FY2007.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="3.3777777777777778in"
height="2.5243055555555554in"}

Figure 1. ASAP Elements and Timeline

**b. Major Milestones and Deliverables.**

> 1.3.1 FY02 Milestones.
>
> IHOP Field Experiment Participation (Convective Initiation Data
> Collection)
>
> CRYSTAL-FACE Field Experiment Participation (Water Vapor Data
> Collection)
>
> ASAP Study Report Completed July 31, 2002
>
> ASAP Benefits Analysis (January 31, 2003 delivery date)
>
> THORPEX Field Experiment Planning Meeting (September 17, 2002)
>
> 1.3.2 FY03 Milestones.
>
> ASAP papers presented at AIAA meeting in Reno, NV on Jan 7, 2003.
>
> ASAP Benefits Analysis Delivered January 31, 2003.
>
> UW ASAP Research (See Appendix 1).
>
> NCAR ASAP Research (See Appendix 1)
>
> LaRC ASAP Research (See Appendix 1)
>
> THORPEX Pacific data collection (Feb 18 -- Mar 12, 2003).
>
> ER-2 Deliverables -- Flight Hours for NAST-I, M, S-HIS, ; In Situ O~3~
>
> NOAA G-IV Flight Hours and Dropsonde Services
>
> NCAR Driftsonde Systems (2) with Dropsonde Services
>
> THORPEX Atlantic data collection (September and October 2003)
>
> 1.3.3 FY04 Anticipated Milestones.
>
> Icing Product Research -- ICE PDT (NCAR RAP) and LaRC Icing Team.
>
> Convective Product Research - UW CIMSS and FAA AWRP CVN PDT.
>
> Turbulence Simulation - FAA AWRP TURB PDT at NCAR RAP.
>
> 1.3.4 FY05 Anticipated Milestones.
>
> Icing Product Status
>
> Convective Product Status
>
> Turbulence Simulation Status
>
> Peer Reviewed Journal Articles
>
> 1.3.5 FY06 Anticipated Milestones.
>
> Icing Product Status
>
> Convective Product Status
>
> Turbulence Simulation Status
>
> Peer Reviewed Journal Articles
>
> 1.3.6 FY07 Anticipated Milestones.
>
> Icing Product Status
>
> Convective Product Status
>
> Turbulence Simulation Status
>
> Peer Reviewed Journal Articles

GIFTS AWIN Demonstration

V.  **Budget Spreadsheets**

![](media/image4.wmf)

  ------------------------------------------------- ---------------------
  **2004**                                          **ASAP \$K**

                                                    

  Total UW Core ASAP Team                           \$552.8

  Collaborative AWRP research                       \$420.0

  LaRC/GRC/NCAR Icing Research                      \$100.0

  Field Testing                                     \$300.0

  Service Pool Charges (Code YO \$)                 \$220.0

  AvSP Overhead                                     \$400.0

  **Total**                                         **\$1992.8**

                                                    

  **Core ASAP Team**                                

  UW Research                                       \$283.5

  UW NCAR Detail                                    \$100.0

  Travel                                            \$13.0

  UW Load                                           \$156.3

  **Subtotal**                                      **\$552.8**

                                                    

  **Collaborative AWRP Research**                   

  AWRP Convective wx research                       \$140.0

  AWRP Icing wx research                            \$140.0

  AWRP Turbulence wx research                       \$140.0

  **Subtotal**                                      **\$420.0**
  ------------------------------------------------- ---------------------

  ------------------------------------------------- ---------------------
  **2005**                                          **ASAP \$K**

                                                    

  Total UW Core ASAP Team                           \$569.6

  Collaborative AWRP research                       \$420.0

  LaRC/GRC/NCAR Icing Research                      \$100.0

  Field Testing                                     \$300.0

  Service Pool Charges (Code YO \$)                 \$220.0

  AvSP Overhead                                     \$400.0

  **Total**                                         **\$2009.6**

                                                    

                                                    

  **2006**                                          **ASAP \$K**

                                                    

  Total UW Core ASAP Team                           \$587.1

  Collaborative AWRP research                       \$420.0

  LaRC/GRC/NCAR Icing Research                      \$100.0

  Field Testing                                     \$300.0

  Service Pool Charges (Code YO \$)                 \$220.0

  AvSP Overhead                                     \$400.0

  **Total**                                         **\$2027.1**

                                                    

                                                    

  **2007**                                          **ASAP \$K**

                                                    

  Total UW Core ASAP Team                           \$604.6

  Collaborative AWRP research                       \$420.0

  LaRC/GRC/NCAR Icing Research                      \$100.0

  Field Testing                                     \$300.0

  Service Pool Charges (Code YO \$)                 \$220.0

  AvSP Overhead                                     \$400.0

  **Total**                                         **\$2044.6**
  ------------------------------------------------- ---------------------

## Appendix 1

###### 1A University of Wisconsin−Madison, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW−CIMSS) participation in the Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products (ASAP) Project for Fiscal Year 2003

The following is a list of the tasks and goals (and accompanying level
of man-hour effort) for fiscal year 2003 (FY03) through fiscal year 2005
(FY05) for "Phase I" activities within the ASAP initiative at UW--CIMSS.
The activities listed below are primarily focused on FY03 (the first
funding year of ASAP). The work outlined below will be done in
collaboration and coordination with the National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) Research Applications Program (RAP) as outlined in the
*ASAP Study Report* (UW--CIMSS/NCAR/NASA Langley Research Center 2002).

The following three elements will initiate immediately within Year 1 as
they are key to all subsequent ASAP activities:

-   Assemble "core" ASAP team at UW--CIMSS, which involves identifying
    the long-term UW--CIMSS scientists who will motivate the ASAP
    agenda.

-   Establish, through a dedicated UW--CIMSS employee, a UW--CIMSS
    presence at NCAR to facilitate the transfer of meteorological
    satellite technology, as well as to educate the users of these
    satellite technologies.

-   Begin to infuse proven scientific methods of processing satellite
    information toward improving the diagnosis and forecasting of
    aviation hazards, in particular, atmospheric convection, turbulence,
    in-flight icing, weather over the oceans, and those caused by
    suspended volcanic ash clouds.

The activities listed below detail the three elements above.

1\) Establish points-of-contact (POCs) at UW--CIMSS that will directly
interact with one or more Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP)
Product Development Teams (PDTs) at NCAR. Each UW--CIMSS POC will
develop collaboration with AWRP PDT leaders to facilitate the necessary
PDT-specific and relevant satellite technology transfer. The UW--CIMSS
POC will guide the research at UW through continuous feedback with PDT
leads. Communications in the form of teleconferencing and travel to NCAR
will occur as necessary. Once established, the POC will facilitate
research as needed by the PDTs through all of Phase I of ASAP.

2\) Identify the scientist who will become the UW--CIMSS liaison at
NCAR, and prepare this person in the scientific methods for using
meteorological satellite information addressing aviation hazards. CIMSS
will immediately begin time-sharing this person with NCAR during FY03,
eventually working to make this UW--CIMSS employee a long-term visiting
scientist at NCAR. This personnel transfer will begin during FY03, and
evolve to a mostly NCAR-based employee by early in FY04 of ASAP.

3\) [Turbulence]{.underline}: Important work in this area to begin in
FY03 will be to assist the Turbulence PDT in evaluating the fundamental
scales of turbulence as determined from numerical simulation. Since
clear air turbulence (CAT) is relatively poorly understood, UW--CIMSS
will work with this PDT to isolate the signatures in satellite imagery
that correspond with aircraft-observed CAT. It is anticipated that some
level of automated pattern detection algorithm development for CAT in
satellite imagery will be developed during FY03, but will become mature
in FY04 and FY05. Research will also be performed in the area of
including satellite cloud-motion winds in algorithms that detect
turbulence, as well as evaluate how profiling remote sensing systems can
be used to evaluate low-level (below 5 km) CAT. Work will also begin in
monitoring the relationship between satellite-derived ozone and abnormal
folds in the tropopause. For high-flying commercial aircraft, this has
implications for moderate to severe CAT. **We expect this work to
consume approximately 2 UW--CIMSS researchers 50% of the time during
FY03**.

4\) [In-Flight Icing]{.underline}: Work on the evaluation of supercooled
clouds will begin immediately in FY03 as MODIS imagery is employed as
twice-daily analyses of cloud microphysical patterns or thermodynamic
phase (e.g., liquid cloud drops versus ice crystals) across regions.
MODIS data will be particularly helpful during winter months when large
stratus cloud sheets, covering large geographical regions, are evaluated
for their potential to create significant icing hazards for aircraft
flying through them. Work will also proceed on using GOES data for
similar purposes, namely to assess cloud microphysical patterns; this
research follows upon ongoing work at NASA Langley. **We expect this
work to consume approximately 2 UW--CIMSS researchers 50-75% of the time
during FY03**.

5\) [Atmospheric Convection]{.underline}: During year 1 of ASAP we will
continue development of a number of parameters for evaluating convective
initiation using geostationary satellite data. This development will
continue from past work with pattern recognition schemes to recognize
the location of small, growing cumulus clouds in satellite imagery.
Beyond this, work will continue on the identification of cumulus cloud
lines, the relationships between cumulus cloud lines and existing
frontal/low-level outflow boundaries, the longevity and growth rates of
cumulus clouds, and cloud deepening rates. We will also develop
procedures to assess cloud-top glaciation as an important precursor to
convection first producing precipitation. Over oceans, our methods will
seek to identify areas of convection-dominated weather and employ the
above techniques. In addition, ASAP will begin preparing PDT nowcasting
systems to use derived product imagery (DPI) of atmospheric stability.
These include convective available potential energy (CAPE), lifted index
(LI) and convective inhibition (CIN), as currently produced in realtime
at UW--CIMSS. All of the research listed above will be transferred into
the nowcasting systems run at NCAR by directly employing proven methods
at UW--CIMSS into their processing routines. **We expect this work to
consume approximately 3 UW--CIMSS researchers 50-75% of the time during
FY03**.

6\) [Oceanic Weather]{.underline}: The above methods for evaluating
turbulence, in-flight icing and convection will be employed over large
oceanic regions by processing geostationary data from GOES, METEOSAT and
GMS. In particular, emphasis will be placed on more accurately locating
hazards surrounding the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and other
semi-permanent regions of strong oceanic thunderstorm activity. ASAP
will immediately begin incorporating satellite-derived winds into PDT
algorithms where they prove useful for diagnosing oceanic weather
hazards (e.g., CAT), as well as for identifying jet stream locations for
flight route planning purposes. ASAP will be able to immediately employ
satellite-derived information like cloud top heights, cloud depths and
cloud layer information into systems that diagnose clouds over data-void
oceanic regions. **We expect this work to consume approximately 2
UW--CIMSS researchers 50% of the time during FY03**.

7\) [Volcanic Ash Hazards]{.underline}: Due to the significant hazard
that suspended volcanic ash presents to high-flying aircraft, work will
immediately commence on procedures to analyze volcanic ash plumes in an
automated sense using MODIS data. This involves developing a system that
automatically collects the appropriate MODIS imagery to continuously
monitor the vertical and spatial extent and qualities of ash plumes. The
existing analysis techniques at UW--CIMSS for processing 32-channel
MODIS imagery will be tested and employed within the existing volcanic
ash-detection schemes at NCAR. We will seek to exploit the direct
broadcast capabilities of MODIS toward developing a semi-continuous
monitoring of active volcanoes across large portions of the globe (e.g.,
across the Pacific rim). The AWRP PDTs will work with the Volcanic Ash
Advisory Centers (VAAC) to use these MODIS imagery processing in
conjunction with information from these Centers. **We expect this work
to consume approximately 1-2 UW--CIMSS researchers 50% of the time
during FY03**.

8\) The ASAP FY03 budget will directly support the above UW--CIMSSNCAR
liaison, the development of the core UW--CIMSS POCs and UW--CIMSS
scientists, the time to perform the scientific research, and the
necessary communications and scientific interactions between these two
institutions. We will communicate by way of teleconferencing, internet
meetings, travel between NCAR and UW--CIMSS, as well as through
joint-institutional travel to scientific conferences.

**1B** **National Center for Atmospheric Research RAP participation in
the Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products (ASAP) Project for
Fiscal Year 2003: Exploratory investigations of turbulence incidents**

This task addresses Section 5.3 of the NASA ASAP Study Report (2002)
which involves performing high-resolution numerical simulations of
turbulence encounters to reconstruct both the isolated regions of
turbulence and the three-dimensional environment associated with the
turbulence. The goal of this task is to provide high-resolution datasets
for satellite imagery sensitivity studies, and to better understand
through the simulations the linkage between large- scale features (that
may be observed in satellite imagery) and the smaller scale turbulence
(which generally will not be observable). These simulations will use the
nonhydrostatic, terrain-following, three-dimensional multi-nested cloud
model developed at NCAR by Terry Clark and Bill Hall (e.g, Clark, 1977,
Clark and Hall, 1991, Clark, 1979). This model has been successfully
used in simulations of thunderstorm clouds, downslope windstorms, and a
variety of other applications over the years. Recent applications of
particular relevance to this proposal are high-resolution simulations of
a) an extreme clear-air turbulence encounter (Clark et al, 2000) and b)
an above-cloud severe turbulence encounter (Lane, et al, 2002).

Using the Clark-Hall model the following tasks will be performed:

1.  Format as necessary the previously generated high resolution gridded
    data sets from the simulations mentioned above (Clark et al, 2000
    and Lane, et al, 2002). The first case contained a series of
    horizontal vortex tubes (HVTs) of diameter about 14 km and length
    about 200 km (also observed in a high resolution DMSP image) causing
    very large horizontal shears that were responsible for the severity
    of the encounter. It may be possible that current or future
    satellite (GIFTS) imagery techniques could have been able to detect
    the presence of these HVTs. The second case contained
    convectively-induced gravity waves which lead to strong shears and
    wave breaking above the cloud top, which may also be observable in
    satellite imagery.

2.  Perform a very high resolution (roughly 100m horizontally and
    vertically) of a near cloud turbulence encounter. The ideal case
    would be one that contains interesting dynamics and has accurate
    cloud location information and precise positional and turbulence
    magnitude data from the aircraft's digital flight data recorder. The
    case to be simulated will be researched and possibilities discussed
    with major airlines. We already have three such cases from two of
    the major airlines, one of which was over the S. Pacific Ocean just
    north of New Zealand. This might be a particularly interesting case
    since satellite imagery would be the only way the conditions
    conducive to turbulence could have been observed.

3.  Perform a systematic study of the effects of resolution on the
    satellite imagery. This would be done by sequentially degrading
    (sampling and smoothing to ensure relevant dynamics are preserved)
    the high resolution grids to a series of lower resolution grids.
    Each set of grids could then be used in satellite imagery
    simulations to be performed by UW CIMSS personnel, to determine
    minimum resolution requirements to observe turbulence events.

The deliverables associated with this work would be:

1.  A total of three datasets of various resolutions resulting from the
    simulations listed above. Each dataset would contain gridded data of
    density, pressure, temperature and water content (in all three
    phases) and other variables as required to be used as input to
    satellite imagery simulations at UW CIMSS. The first two datasets
    from the previously generated simulations will be delivered to NASA
    and interested parties 3 months after contract award. The third
    dataset containing output from the proposed new simulation in task 2
    above would be delivered in Sept. 2003.

2.  A report or technical paper describing the results of the simulation
    listed in task 2 above. The report will detail the parameters of the
    simulation and an assessment of the physical causes of the severe
    turbulence. This will be delivered to NASA in Sept. 2003.

###### 1C NASA Langley Research Center, Atmospheric Science Competency, Radiation and Aerosols Branch participation in the Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products (ASAP) Project for Fiscal Year 2003 

####### Icing Detection from GOES Over the Continental USA

**Objective**

Develop a near-real time methodology to determine areas with
super-cooled cloudiness over the continental USA (CONUS) for application
to detection of aircraft icing conditions from high temporal resolution
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imager data.

**Tasks**

*1. Expand domain of current Visible-infrared-solar infrared- split
window technique (VISST) to CONUS from current limited domains over
Florida and south central USA.*

a\. Develop clear-sky albedo maps & updating system for 10' domain over
CONUS

> b\. Develop and test ingest and interpolation system for RUC or other
> suitable high-resolution US numerical weather analysis product to
> CONUS domain
>
> c\. Develop automated ingest system for reception and navigation of
> data from GOES-East & GOES-West to CONUS domain
>
> d\. Implement VISST to produce pixel level cloud properties
>
> e\. Develop & test product output to identify areas with supercooled
> liquid water clouds
>
> f\. Develop prototype missing data procedures
>
> g\. Refine algorithm and output

*2. Validate supercooled cloud retrievals and relate to icing
conditions*

a\. Compare with icing flights at NASA Glenn Research Center

b\. Participate in THORPEX and compare data with retrievals when
available

c\. Compare characteristics of derived cloud properties with PIREPS
icing reports

During this year, we expect to accomplish Tasks 1a - 1e to provide a
prototype algorithm and to perform the initial validations. The
remaining tasks (1f-1g) will be performed if time warrants. This effort
involves the ingesting and management of a huge data volume that will
require a considerable computing system. We had expected to have
available a large SGI processing system (Samantha with 64 processors)
that was formerly used by CERES. However, delays in upgrading the CERES
computers have delayed our accessibility to Samantha. Thus, logistics in
running the large datasets will need to be developed to complete the
prototype processing system. The current estimate for access to Samantha
is June 2003.

**1D** **THORPEX data collection in support of the Advanced Satellite
Aviation-weather Products (ASAP) Project for Fiscal Year 2003.**

See 2003 THORPEX Pacific Operational Science Test Plan at http://etc.

**1E** **National Center for Atmospheric Research ATD Driftsonde System
in support of the Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products (ASAP)
Project for Fiscal Year 2003.**

See 2003 THORPEX Pacific Operational Science Test Plan at http://etc.