Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 11/10/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** JA4084

JA4084

**Japan**

**Dairy and Products**

**Annual Report**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Richard Battaglia

U. S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Kakuyu Obara

**Report Highlights:**

Japan's milk production is projected to ease to 8.32 million MT in 2005.
Subsidy levels for milk (manufacturing) are not expected to change,
causing the NFDM surplus supply situation to continue in 2005. Purchases
of butter under the current access are expected to continue in 2005.
Cheese imports are expected to rise by about 2% to 220,000 MT in 2005
due to firm demand in the food service industry. Imports of U.S. cheese
are expected to benefit if the Yen remains strong against the US Dollar.
Imports of U.S. cheese in 2004 (Jan-Sep) are up by 15% compared to the
same period in 2003.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Annual Report

Tokyo \[JA1\]

\[JA\]

Table of Contents

[Fluid Milk Section 3](#fluid-milk-section)

[2005 Outlook 3](#outlook)

[2004 Situation and Update 3](#situation-and-update)

[Japan's fluid milk production forecast slightly lower
3](#japans-fluid-milk-production-forecast-slightly-lower)

[Table 1. Japanese Utilization of Fluid Milk for Drinking Use Category
3](#table-1.-japanese-utilization-of-fluid-milk-for-drinking-use-category)

[Table 2. Japanese Utilization of Fluid Milk for Drinking Use Category
4](#table-2.-japanese-utilization-of-fluid-milk-for-drinking-use-category)

[Table 3. Japanese Household Consumption of Dairy Commodities
4](#table-3.-japanese-household-consumption-of-dairy-commodities)

[NFDM and Butter Section 5](#nfdm-and-butter-section)

[2005 Outlook 5](#outlook-1)

[Milk subsidy will likely lead to surplus of dairy products in 2005
5](#milk-subsidy-will-likely-lead-to-surplus-of-dairy-products-in-2005)

[Japan expected to commit current access to butter again in 2005
5](#japan-expected-to-commit-current-access-to-butter-again-in-2005)

[Table 4. Government's Payments for Manufacturing Milk
5](#table-4.-governments-payments-for-manufacturing-milk)

[2004 Updates and Revised Outlook Summary
6](#updates-and-revised-outlook-summary)

[NFDM surplus situation persists in 2004
6](#nfdm-surplus-situation-persists-in-2004)

[Table 5. Japanese imports of Non Fat Dry Milk
6](#table-5.-japanese-imports-of-non-fat-dry-milk)

[Butter demand and supply forecast to balance in 2004
6](#butter-demand-and-supply-forecast-to-balance-in-2004)

[Cheese Section 7](#cheese-section)

[2005 Outlook 7](#outlook-2)

[2004 Situation and Update 7](#situation-and-update-1)

[Imports grow despite high international prices
7](#imports-grow-despite-high-international-prices)

[Medium fat cream cheese imports to rise sharply in 2004
8](#medium-fat-cream-cheese-imports-to-rise-sharply-in-2004)

[Table 6-1. Japanese Cheese Imports
8](#table-6-1.-japanese-cheese-imports)

[Table 6-2. Japanese Cheese Imports (Average C & F Price)
9](#table-6-2.-japanese-cheese-imports-average-c-f-price)

[Table 6-3. Japanese Cheese Imports by Product Category
9](#table-6-3.-japanese-cheese-imports-by-product-category)

[Fluid Milk PS&D Table 10](#fluid-milk-psd-table)

[NFDM PS&D Table 11](#nfdm-psd-table)

[Butter PS&D Table 12](#butter-psd-table)

[Cheese PS&D Table 13](#cheese-psd-table)

# Fluid Milk Section

## 2005 Outlook

Japan's total fluid milk production in 2005 is projected slightly lower
at 8.32 million MT, reflecting an expected decrease in the number of
milking cows. Japan's fluid milk utilization patterns are expected to
remain relatively unchanged in 2005. Post does not expect a substantial
change in the government's subsidy payment for manufacturing milk, and
the oversupply situation in manufacturing milk is expected to persist in
2005.

# 

## 2004 Situation and Update

### Japan's fluid milk production forecast slightly lower

Japan's fluid milk production is forecast to fall slightly to 8.36
million MT in 2004. Based on January -- September data, production in
Hokkaido will likely remain relatively unchanged, while output in other
regions is expected to ease.

Fluid milk utilization (for drinking) is expected to fall slightly to
4,965 million MT, based on January -- September data (see explanation of
new data series below). Decreased utilization of fluid milk for fresh
milk and fermented milk products in 2004, will likely offset increased
utilization of processed milk and milk beverages (See tables 1 and 3).
Fluid milk utilization for processing (factory use) is forecast to rise
slightly from the previous year to 3.31 million MT, leading to modest
increases in the production of subsidized NFDM and butter (See tables 2
and NFDM and Butter sections).

#### Table 1. Japanese Utilization of Fluid Milk for Drinking Use Category

+----------------------------------------+---------+---------+---------+
| **Period: January -- September, 2003   |         |         |         |
| -- 2004**                              |         |         |         |
+----------------------------------------+---------+---------+---------+
| **Unit: 1,000 Kilo Liters**            |         |         |         |
+----------------------------------------+---------+---------+---------+
|                                        | 2003    | 2004    | \% Chg. |
+----------------------------------------+---------+---------+---------+
| Regular Milk\*                         | 3,047   | 2,999   | -2%     |
+----------------------------------------+---------+---------+---------+
| Processed Milk\*                       | 345     | 365     | 6%      |
+----------------------------------------+---------+---------+---------+
| Milk Beverages                         | 868     | 913     | 5%      |
+----------------------------------------+---------+---------+---------+
| Fermented Milk                         | 607     | 595     | -2%     |
+----------------------------------------+---------+---------+---------+
| Lactic Acid Bacteria Drinks            | 138     | 133     | -4%     |
+----------------------------------------+---------+---------+---------+
| Note 1: Processed Milk: low fat, high  |         |         |         |
| fat, vitamin and mineral fortified,    |         |         |         |
| calcium enriched,                      |         |         |         |
|                                        |         |         |         |
| Milk Beverages: flavored milk (coffee  |         |         |         |
| and fruits flavored). And Fermented    |         |         |         |
| Milk: Yogurt etc.                      |         |         |         |
|                                        |         |         |         |
| **\*Data are under a new statistical   |         |         |         |
| method.**                              |         |         |         |
|                                        |         |         |         |
| Note 2: Figures are preliminary.       |         |         |         |
|                                        |         |         |         |
| Source: Agriculture & Livestock        |         |         |         |
| Industry Corporation (ALIC), Ministry  |         |         |         |
| of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries  |         |         |         |
| (MAFF)                                 |         |         |         |
+----------------------------------------+---------+---------+---------+

#### Table 2. Japanese Utilization of Fluid Milk for Drinking Use Category

+--------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| **Period: January --     |             |             |             |
| September, 2003 --       |             |             |             |
| 2004**                   |             |             |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| **Unit: Metric Ton**     |             |             |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
|                          | 2003        | 2004        | \% Chg.     |
+--------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Butter                   | 61,141      | 62,525      | 2%          |
+--------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Cream                    | 63,541      | 62,010      | -2%         |
+--------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Whole Milk Powder        | 13,257      | 11,672      | -12%        |
+--------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Prepared Milk Powder     | 27,314      | 25,771      | -6%         |
+--------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Skim Milk Powder (NFDM)  | 136,239     | 138,945     | 2%          |
+--------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Ice Cream (Unit: kilo    | 75,962      | 84,662      | 11%         |
| liter)                   |             |             |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+
| Note: Figures are        |             |             |             |
| preliminary.             |             |             |             |
|                          |             |             |             |
| Source: ALIC             |             |             |             |
+--------------------------+-------------+-------------+-------------+

#### Table 3. Japanese Household Consumption of Dairy Commodities

+------------------+------+------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| **Period:        |      |      |        |        |        |        |
| January --       |      |      |        |        |        |        |
| September, 2003  |      |      |        |        |        |        |
| -- 2004**        |      |      |        |        |        |        |
+------------------+------+------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
|                  | **   |      |        | **     |        |        |
|                  | Quan |      |        | Expend |        |        |
|                  | titi |      |        | itures |        |        |
|                  | es** |      |        | (      |        |        |
|                  |      |      |        | Yen)** |        |        |
+------------------+------+------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
|                  | 2003 | 2004 | \%     | 2003   | 2004   | \%     |
|                  |      |      | Chg.   |        |        | Chg.   |
+------------------+------+------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Milk (liter)     | 79   | 77   | -2%    | 15,452 | 15,008 | -3%    |
+------------------+------+------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Cheese (grams)   | 1    | 1    | -1%    | 2260   | 2199   | -3%    |
|                  | ,669 | ,657 |        |        |        |        |
+------------------+------+------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Butter (grams)   | 357  | 357  | 0%     | 493    | 503    | 2%     |
+------------------+------+------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| Note: Figures    |      |      |        |        |        |        |
| are preliminary. |      |      |        |        |        |        |
|                  |      |      |        |        |        |        |
| Source: Ministry |      |      |        |        |        |        |
| of Internal      |      |      |        |        |        |        |
| Affairs &        |      |      |        |        |        |        |
| Communication    |      |      |        |        |        |        |
+------------------+------+------+--------+--------+--------+--------+

New Data Series for Fluid Milk PS&D: Starting April 2003 (JFY 2003), the
Japanese government changed the statistical data for reporting
utilization of fluid milk for "fluid use (drinking use)" and "factory
use (dairy product use)" in accordance with relevant definition changes
made in the Government's Milk Ordinance. In light of the above, Post has
started a new data series for Japan's fluid milk PS&D in this report,
with the changes in MAFF's milk utilization statistics as follows: In
previous data series, some fluid milk utilized by the food service
sector was counted as "factory use". Under the new system, MAFF has
moved this value to "drinking use" statistics. Post's fluid milk figures
for CY 2003 -- 2004 reflect this change based on preliminary estimates
provided by MAFF.

# NFDM and Butter Section

## 2005 Outlook

### Milk subsidy will likely lead to surplus of dairy products in 2005

Assuming Japan's support levels for milk producers are relatively
unchanged, Japan's fluid milk utilization for factory use is projected
down by 1% in 2005. This marginal decline reflects modest declines in
the production of NFDM (projected down by 4% to 180,000 MT) and butter
(projected down by 2% to 80,000 MT). Assuming demand for both
commodities remains relatively stable, Japan will continue to experience
a surplus of NFDM in 2005 in addition to higher year-ending butter
stocks.

Four years ago, Japan changed its dairy subsidy program from a
deficiency payment system to a direct payment system. This change was
intended allow dairy cooperatives and dairy product manufacturers to
negotiate directly to determine fluid milk prices for processing use.
However, little has changed as dairy cooperators remain powerful enough
to effectively maintain higher prices, and continue to yield enough
political clout to keep direct payments from being cut (payment level
and subsidy volume). No significant subsidy cuts are anticipated during
Japanese fiscal year 2005 (April 2005 - March 2006) (See table 4).

### Japan expected to commit current access to butter again in 2005

###  

In recent years, Japan has used its dairy current access to import
butter instead of NFDM. In 2004, an abnormally long and hot summer
helped to ease the NFDM surplus by briefly increasing ingredient demand
for NFDM, which is projected up by 6% for the year. However, the rise in
ingredient demand fell far short in correcting the persistent NFDM
surplus situation, which is expected to result in a 6% increase (to
90,000 MT) in ending stocks for 2004. Consequently, Japan will likely
commit the entire current access to butter again in 2005, which is
projected to amount to 10,000 MT (carryover of JFY 2004 and part of JFY
2005 combined). This will result in higher year-ending butter stocks for
2005. Assuming butter demand remains relatively unchanged in 2005,
Japan's butter situation will likely shift to a surplus situation beyond
2005, which raises interesting questions about how Japan will manage
current access imports if both NFDM and butter are in surplus.

### 

#### Table 4. Government's Payments for Manufacturing Milk

  ----------- ----------- -------- ----------------------- ------------ --------------
              **Unit                                       **Eligible   
              Subsidy                                      Volume**     
              Payment**                                                 

  JFY 1995    11.49       Yen/kg   Deficiency payment      2.30         Million MT

  JFY 1996    11.49       Yen/kg   Deficiency payment      2.30         Million MT

  JFY 1997    10.87       Yen/kg   Deficiency payment      2.40         Million MT

  JFY 1998    10.84       Yen/kg   Deficiency payment      2.40         Million MT

  JFY 1999    10.80       Yen/kg   Deficiency payment      2.40         Million MT

  JFY 2000    10.30       Yen/kg   Deficiency payment      2.40         Million MT

  JFY 2001    10.30       Yen/kg   Direct Payment          2.27         Million MT

  JFY 2002    11.00       Yen/kg   Direct Payment          2.20         Million MT

  JFY 2003    10.74       Yen/kg   Direct Payment          2.10         Million MT

  JFY 2004    10.52       Yen/kg   Direct Payment          2.10         Million MT

  Source:                                                               
  ALIC and                                                              
  MAFF                                                                  
  ----------- ----------- -------- ----------------------- ------------ --------------

Note: Subsidy Scheme has been switched to a direct payment mode since
JFY 2001.

## 2004 Updates and Revised Outlook Summary

### NFDM surplus situation persists in 2004

Japan's NFDM surplus supply situation has persisted for several years
running, and appears to be worsening. The main problem is excessive
domestic production relative to actual market demand, which has remained
stagnant. Reduced demand for NFDM as an ingredient for processed milk
drinks, milk beverages, and fermented milk products, along with
lethargic demand in the bakery sector, are fueling slumping demand.
Growth prospects for domestic NFDM for ingredient use, which is
subsidized and high-priced, will likely remain limited in the future.
The slight increase in utilization of fluid milk for processing has
resulted in a 2% increase (to 187,000 MT) in NFDM production.

Utilization of NFDM (for human consumption) is projected to rise by 6%
to 185,000 MT in 2004, due primarily to a voluntary stock adjustment
program implemented by Hokuren, the largest dairy cooperative in
Hokkaido (See JA 4054), and a temporary demand spike during the summer
months.

Monthly imports of NFDM (for school lunch programs, feed, and other uses
combined) for January -- September have remained low, and total imports
for 2004 are expected to drop by 16% to 36,000 MT, most of which will be
for feed use. Imports for the school lunch programs are expected to
remain low. Also, no NFDM imports under the current access will be made
during 2004 and beyond, which will keep NFDM imports under other
category minimal (See table 5).

Japan's total NFDM utilization (for human and feed use combined) in 2004
is forecast to grow slightly, projected up 3% to 218,000 MT, which will
be insufficient to correct the prevailing surplus situation, resulting
in bigger year-ending stocks.

#### Table 5. Japanese imports of Non Fat Dry Milk

  -------------------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------
  **Period: January -- September,                            
  2003 -- 2004**                                             

  **Unit: Metric Ton**                                       

                                   2003         2004         \% Chg.

  For School Lunch Program         2,231        2,268        2%

  For Feeds                        25,837       24,276       -6%

  For Other Use (mostly for        2,881        967          -66%
  Current Access)                                            

  Total NFDM Imports               30,949       27,511       -11%

  Source: ALIC                                               
  -------------------------------- ------------ ------------ ------------

### Butter demand and supply forecast to balance in 2004

Japan's 2004 butter production is forecast to rise by 2% to 82,000 MT.
Market demand for butter (including ingredient utilization) is projected
slightly lower, down by 1% to 88,000 MT. Total butter imports, mostly
under the current access, are forecast at 8,000 MT, which includes 3,200
MT of current access carry-over from JFY 2003.

Japan is expected to commit the entire JFY 2004 current access to
butter, which would be up to 8,600 MT for April 04 - March 05. According
to ALIC, the exclusive buyer and the seller of current access butter,
3,100 MT of butter is scheduled to arrive by the end of December 2004,
while about 1,700 MT is scheduled to arrive after January 2005. The
remainder will be committed for January -- March 2005. The pace of
Japan's butter purchases under the current access has slowed in the
absence of the tight supply situation, which prevailed in 2003. Trade
sources also attribute the slower pace to high international prices,
particularly for EU butter due to subsidy cuts and a strong Euro, and
food safety concerns about imported butter. Year ending stocks are
estimated at around 26,000 MT in 2004, up 8% from the year beginning.

# Cheese Section 

## 2005 Outlook

Following the recovery in consumption in 2004, import demand for cheese
is expected to grow modestly in 2005, projected up by 2% to 220,000 MT,
with the major suppliers being Oceania and the EU. Market demand for
cheese is expected to remain firm, particularly in the food service, and
prepared and processed food sectors. Continued high prices for imported
natural cheese will likely cap import growth. In addition, the reported
detection of dioxin in milk produced in the Netherlands may initially
slow imports from the EU in 2005.

However, if the Euro weakens against Japanese yen in 2005, imports from
the EU could strengthen, pushing Post's import projection higher.
Products from Oceania are expected to remain competitive in the Japanese
market if the Yen continues to remain strong against U.S. dollar, since
Australian cheese is generally traded on U.S. dollar account basis. A
continued strong yen against the dollar in 2005 could prompt imports of
U.S. graded and powdered cheese and cream cheese.

## 2004 Situation and Update

### 

### Imports grow despite high international prices

Post revised its 2004 forecast for Japanese cheese imports and demand.
The revision reflects improvements in the market situation since the
last semiannual report. Total imports are projected to rise by 11% to
215,000 MT in 2004, and demand is projected to increase by 9% to 250,000
MT (See table 6-1, 6-2 and 6-3).

Despite high international prices, imports during January to September
(2004) rose by 14%, with Australia and New Zealand holding a combined
share of nearly 70%, and EU suppliers generally sharing the remainder.
According to market sources, Japanese buyers made additional purchases
in anticipation of higher international prices, particularly for EU
natural cheese. Further, the stronger yen against U.S. dollar enhanced
the relative competitiveness of Oceania cheese.

Demand in Japan's food service and prepared and processed food sectors
has generally improved in 2004, which offset lethargic household
consumption. This trend is reflected in the increase in imports (January
to September) for categories under HS 040690 (Other Cheeses) and HS
040610 (Fresh Cheeses). More specifically, the demand for raw material
natural cheese under the so called "pooled quota" (zero tariff), which
is blended with domestic natural cheese to manufacture processed cheese
for the food service industry, has significantly increased (HS
0406.90.010, Jan. -- Sept. total, up 15% to 31,178 MT with more than 80%
supplied by Oceania).

### Medium fat cream cheese imports to rise sharply in 2004

Imports of fresh cheese, which includes ordinary cream cheese, fresh
mozzarella (for pizzas), and medium fat cream cheeses, rose by 22%
during the first nine months of 2004. (HS 0406.10.090, Jan. -- Sept.
total at 55,954 MT, with 65% supplied by Australia). About one-fourth of
Australian fresh cheese reportedly contains a special cream cheese
product modified to contain specific protein and fat (medium 60 -- 50%).
This medium fat cream cheese is used as a fat substitute to make ice
desserts and confectionary products, which were in demand during Japan's
long hot summer. Imports of U.S. cheese also increased significantly
during this period, up by 15% to 3,257 MT, with main product categories
being grated/powdered and cream cheese. The exchange rate advantage
(strong yen against dollar) is expected to maintain import growth for
U.S. cheese during the remainder of the year. Total imports of U.S.
cheese are projected at about 4,000 MT in 2004. The reported detection
of milk contaminated with dioxin from a farm in the Netherlands could
slow imports of cheese and other dairy products from the EU for the rest
of 2004, which could weigh on total imports for the year.

###  

#### Table 6-1. Japanese Cheese Imports

+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| *    |                  |       |       |       |       |       |
| *Jap |                  |       |       |       |       |       |
| an** |                  |       |       |       |       |       |
|      |                  |       |       |       |       |       |
| **   |                  |       |       |       |       |       |
| 0406 |                  |       |       |       |       |       |
| CH   |                  |       |       |       |       |       |
| EESE |                  |       |       |       |       |       |
| AND  |                  |       |       |       |       |       |
| CU   |                  |       |       |       |       |       |
| RD** |                  |       |       |       |       |       |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|      |                  |       |       |       | **%   | **Sh  |
|      |                  |       |       |       | C     | are** |
|      |                  |       |       |       | hg.** |       |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Ra | **Country**      | **-   | **-   | **-   | **04  | *     |
| nk** |                  | MT -  | MT -  | MT -  | /03** | *04** |
|      |                  | 2     | 2     | 2     |       |       |
|      |                  | 002** | 003** | 004** |       |       |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|      |                  | *     | *     | *     | *     | *     |
|      |                  | *Jan. | *Jan. | *Jan. | *Jan. | *Jan. |
|      |                  | --    | --    | --    | --    | --    |
|      |                  | Se    | Se    | Se    | Se    | Se    |
|      |                  | pt.** | pt.** | pt.** | pt.** | pt.** |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| *    | **\--World\--**  | *     | *     | *     | **    | **1   |
| *0** |                  | *152, | *138, | *158, | 14%** | 00%** |
|      |                  | 494** | 993** | 374** |       |       |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| *    | **Australia**    | **72, | **60, | **71, | **    | **    |
| *1** |                  | 004** | 850** | 114** | 17%** | 45%** |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| *    | **New Zealand**  | **33, | **31, | **37, | **    | **    |
| *2** |                  | 207** | 214** | 535** | 20%** | 24%** |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| 3    | Germany          | 8,768 | 9,687 | 9,964 | 3%    | 6%    |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| 4    | Denmark          | 9,031 | 9,774 | 8,489 | -13%  | 5%    |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| 5    | Netherlands      | 7,897 | 7,373 | 7,765 | 5%    | 5%    |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| 6    | France           | 4,612 | 4,905 | 5,152 | 5%    | 3%    |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| 7    | Italy            | 3,114 | 3,479 | 3,953 | 14%   | 2%    |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| 8    | Norway           | 4,056 | 3,734 | 3,510 | -6%   | 2%    |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| 9    | United States    | 3,479 | 2,822 | 3,257 | 15%   | 2%    |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| 10   | Belgium          | 1,098 | 1,239 | 2,424 | 96%   | 2%    |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| 11   | Others           | 5,228 | 3,915 | 5,213 | 33%   | 3%    |
+------+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Source: WTA

#### Table 6-2. Japanese Cheese Imports (Average C & F Price)

+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| **J    |                      |        |        |        |        |
| apan** |                      |        |        |        |        |
|        |                      |        |        |        |        |
| **0406 |                      |        |        |        |        |
| CHEESE |                      |        |        |        |        |
| AND    |                      |        |        |        |        |
| CURD** |                      |        |        |        |        |
|        |                      |        |        |        |        |
| **A    |                      |        |        |        |        |
| verage |                      |        |        |        |        |
| Price  |                      |        |        |        |        |
| (US    |                      |        |        |        |        |
| Doll   |                      |        |        |        |        |
| ars)** |                      |        |        |        |        |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
|        |                      |        |        |        | **%    |
|        |                      |        |        |        | Ch     |
|        |                      |        |        |        | ange** |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| **     | **Country**          | **-/   | **-/   | **-/   | **0    |
| Rank** |                      | KG -   | KG -   | KG -   | 4/03** |
|        |                      | 2002** | 2003** | 2004** |        |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
|        |                      | **Jan. | **Jan. | **Jan. | **Jan. |
|        |                      | --     | --     | --     | --     |
|        |                      | S      | S      | S      | S      |
|        |                      | ept.** | ept.** | ept.** | ept.** |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| **0**  | **\--World\--**      | *      | **     | **     | **     |
|        |                      | *2.8** | 2.91** | 3.11** | 6.87** |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| **1**  | **Australia**        | **     | *      | **     | **     |
|        |                      | 2.29** | *2.3** | 2.51** | 9.13** |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| **2**  | **New Zealand**      | **     | *      | **     | **     |
|        |                      | 2.41** | *2.2** | 2.41** | 9.55** |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| 3      | Germany              | 2.65   | 2.69   | 2.81   | 4.46   |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| 4      | Denmark              | 3.53   | 3.96   | 4.46   | 12.63  |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| 5      | Netherlands          | 2.89   | 3.11   | 3.38   | 8.68   |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| 6      | France               | 6.54   | 7.23   | 7.44   | 2.9    |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| 7      | Italy                | 7.83   | 8.81   | 9.3    | 5.56   |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| 8      | Norway               | 2.36   | 2.43   | 2.53   | 4.12   |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| **9**  | **United States**    | **     | **     | **     | **     |
|        |                      | 6.52** | 6.56** | 6.92** | 5.49** |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+
| 10     | Belgium              | 2.41   | 2.18   | 2.58   | 18.35  |
+--------+----------------------+--------+--------+--------+--------+

Source: WTA

#### Table 6-3. Japanese Cheese Imports by Product Category

+-----+--------------------+-------+---+-------+---+-------+---+--------+
| **J |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| apa |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| n** |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
|     |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| **I |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| mpo |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| rts |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| by  |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| C   |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| ate |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| gor |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| y** |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
|     |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| **P |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| eri |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| od: |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| J   |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| anu |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| ary |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| --  |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| Se  |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| pte |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| mbe |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
| r** |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   |        |
+-----+--------------------+-------+---+-------+---+-------+---+--------+
| **H | **Description**    | **2   | * | **2   | * | **2   | * | **0    |
| S** |                    | 002** | * | 003** | * | 004** | * | 4/03** |
|     |                    |       | - |       | - |       | - |        |
|     |                    |       | * |       | * |       | * |        |
|     |                    |       | * |       | * |       | * |        |
+-----+--------------------+-------+---+-------+---+-------+---+--------+
|     | **\--World\--**    |       |   |       |   |       |   | **%    |
|     |                    |       |   |       |   |       |   | Chg.** |
+-----+--------------------+-------+---+-------+---+-------+---+--------+
|     | 0406 CHEESE AND    | 15    | M | 13    | M | 15    | M | 14%    |
|     | CURD               | 2,494 | T | 8,993 | T | 8,374 | T |        |
+-----+--------------------+-------+---+-------+---+-------+---+--------+
| 040 | FRESH CHEESE       | 5     | M | 4     | M | 5     | M | 20%    |
| 610 |                    | 3,220 | T | 4,306 | T | 3,357 | T |        |
+-----+--------------------+-------+---+-------+---+-------+---+--------+
| 040 | C                  | 2,965 | M | 3,038 | M | 3,258 | M | 7%     |
| 620 | HEESE,GRATE/POWDER |       | T |       | T |       | T |        |
+-----+--------------------+-------+---+-------+---+-------+---+--------+
| 040 | CHEESE,            | 3,745 | M | 4,142 | M | 4,173 | M | 1%     |
| 630 |                    |       | T |       | T |       | T |        |
+-----+--------------------+-------+---+-------+---+-------+---+--------+
| 040 | CHEESE, BLUE,      | 505   | M | 533   | M | 529   | M | -1%    |
| 640 | OTHER              |       | T |       | T |       | T |        |
+-----+--------------------+-------+---+-------+---+-------+---+--------+
| 040 | OTHER CHEESE       | 9     | M | 8     | M | 9     | M | 12%    |
| 690 |                    | 2,059 | T | 6,973 | T | 7,058 | T |        |
+-----+--------------------+-------+---+-------+---+-------+---+--------+

Source: WTA

# Fluid Milk PS&D Table

+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| Japan              |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Dairy, Milk, Fluid |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                    | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | **U  |
|                    | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | OM** |
|                    | 3** | ed** | 4** | te** | 5** | st** |      |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                    | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                    | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                    | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti |      |
|                    | fic | mate | fic | mate | fic | mate |      |
|                    | ial | \    | ial | \    | ial | \    |      |
|                    | \[O | [New | \[O | [New | \[O | [New |      |
|                    | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** |      |
|                    | ]** |      | ]** |      | ]** |      |      |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| #######            |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | **M  |
|  Market Year Begin |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 | M/YY |
|                    |     | 03** |     | 04** |     | 05** | YY** |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Cows In Milk**   | 964 | 964  | 960 | 936  | 0   | 930  | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | HA)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Cows Milk        | 8   | 8400 | 8   | 8360 | 0   | 8320 | (    |
| Production**       | 403 |      | 400 |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Other Milk       | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Production**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL            | 8   | 8400 | 8   | 8360 | 0   | 8320 | (    |
| Production**       | 403 |      | 400 |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC         | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Imports**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Imports**  | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports**  | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**   | 8   | 8400 | 8   | 8360 | 0   | 8320 | (    |
|                    | 403 |      | 400 |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC         | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Exports**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Exports**  | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Exports**  | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Fluid Use Dom.   | 5   | 5035 | 5   | 4965 | 0   | 4965 | (    |
| Consum.**          | 006 |      | 005 |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Factory Use      | 3   | 3279 | 3   | 3310 | 0   | 3270 | (    |
| Consum.**          | 311 |      | 310 |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Feed Use Dom.    | 86  | 86   | 85  | 85   | 0   | 85   | (    |
| Consum.**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Dom.       | 8   | 8400 | 8   | 8360 | 0   | 8320 | (    |
| Consumption**      | 403 |      | 400 |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| #######            | 8   | 8400 | 8   | 8360 | 0   | 8320 | (    |
| TOTAL DISTRIBUTION | 403 |      | 400 |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr.     | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Imp. from U.S.**   |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr.     | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Exp. to U.S.**     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

Note: New data series started from revised estimates from CY 2003 as
explained in Fluid Milk Section in the text.

# NFDM PS&D Table

+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| Japan              |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Dairy, Milk,       |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Nonfat Dry         |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                    | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | **U  |
|                    | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | OM** |
|                    | 3** | ed** | 4** | te** | 5** | st** |      |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                    | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                    | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                    | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti |      |
|                    | fic | mate | fic | mate | fic | mate |      |
|                    | ial | \    | ial | \    | ial | \    |      |
|                    | \[O | [New | \[O | [New | \[O | [New |      |
|                    | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** |      |
|                    | ]** |      | ]** |      | ]** |      |      |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| Market Year Begin  |     | 01/  |     | 01/  |     | 01/  | MM/  |
|                    |     | 2003 |     | 2004 |     | 2005 | YYYY |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Beginning        | 70  | 70   | 85  | 85   | 90  | 90   | (    |
| Stocks**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Production**     | 183 | 183  | 185 | 187  | 0   | 180  | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC         | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Imports**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Imports**  | 43  | 43   | 45  | 36   | 0   | 35   | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports**  | 43  | 43   | 45  | 36   | 0   | 35   | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**   | 296 | 296  | 315 | 308  | 90  | 305  | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC         | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Exports**          |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Exports**  | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Exports**  | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Human Dom.       | 175 | 175  | 190 | 185  | 0   | 180  | (    |
| Consumption**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Other Use,       | 36  | 36   | 35  | 33   | 0   | 32   | (    |
| Losses**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Dom.       | 211 | 211  | 225 | 218  | 0   | 212  | (    |
| Consumption**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Use**      | 211 | 211  | 225 | 218  | 0   | 212  | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Ending Stocks**  | 85  | 85   | 90  | 90   | 0   | 93   | (    |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL            | 296 | 296  | 315 | 308  | 0   | 305  | (    |
| DISTRIBUTION**     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr.     | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Imp. from U.S.**   |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr.     | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Exp. to U.S.**     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                    |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+--------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

# Butter PS&D Table

+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| Japan               |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| Dairy, Butter       |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | **U  |
|                     | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | OM** |
|                     | 3** | ed** | 4** | te** | 5** | st** |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                     | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                     | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti |      |
|                     | fic | mate | fic | mate | fic | mate |      |
|                     | ial | \    | ial | \    | ial | \    |      |
|                     | \[O | [New | \[O | [New | \[O | [New |      |
|                     | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** |      |
|                     | ]** |      | ]** |      | ]** |      |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| Market Year Begin   |     | 01/  |     | 01/  |     | 01/  | MM/  |
|                     |     | 2003 |     | 2004 |     | 2005 | YYYY |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Beginning         | 20  | 20   | 24  | 24   | 27  | 26   | (    |
| Stocks**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Production**      | 80  | 80   | 82  | 82   | 0   | 80   | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Imports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Imports**   | 13  | 13   | 10  | 8    | 0   | 10   | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports**   | 13  | 13   | 10  | 8    | 0   | 10   | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**    | 113 | 113  | 116 | 114  | 27  | 116  | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Exports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Exports**   | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Exports**   | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Domestic          | 89  | 89   | 89  | 88   | 0   | 88   | (    |
| Consumption**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Use**       | 89  | 89   | 89  | 88   | 0   | 88   | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Ending Stocks**   | 24  | 24   | 27  | 26   | 0   | 28   | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL             | 113 | 113  | 116 | 114  | 0   | 116  | (    |
| DISTRIBUTION**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Imp. | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| from U.S.**         |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Exp. | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| to U.S.**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

# Cheese PS&D Table

+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| ###### Japan        |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| #                   |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
| ##### Dairy, Cheese |     |      |     |      |     |      |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | **U  |
|                     | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | OM** |
|                     | 3** | ed** | 4** | te** | 5** | st** |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
|                     | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |      |
|                     | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |      |
|                     | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti |      |
|                     | fic | mate | fic | mate | fic | mate |      |
|                     | ial | \    | ial | \    | ial | \    |      |
|                     | \[O | [New | \[O | [New | \[O | [New |      |
|                     | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** |      |
|                     | ]** |      | ]** |      | ]** |      |      |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| Market Year Begin   |     | 01/  |     | 01/  |     | 01/  | MM/  |
|                     |     | 2003 |     | 2004 |     | 2005 | YYYY |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Beginning         | 15  | 15   | 15  | 15   | 15  | 15   | (    |
| Stocks**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Production**      | 36  | 35   | 36  | 35   | 0   | 35   | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Imports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Imports**   | 194 | 194  | 209 | 215  | 0   | 220  | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Imports**   | 194 | 194  | 209 | 215  | 0   | 220  | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL SUPPLY**    | 245 | 244  | 260 | 265  | 15  | 270  | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Intra EC          | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Exports**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Exports**   | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Exports**   | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Human Dom.        | 230 | 229  | 245 | 250  | 0   | 255  | (    |
| Consumption**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Other Use,        | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| Losses**            |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Total Dom.        | 230 | 229  | 245 | 250  | 0   | 255  | (    |
| Consumption**       |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL Use**       | 230 | 229  | 245 | 250  | 0   | 255  | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Ending Stocks**   | 15  | 15   | 15  | 15   | 0   | 15   | (    |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **TOTAL             | 245 | 244  | 260 | 265  | 0   | 270  | (    |
| DISTRIBUTION**      |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Imp. | 4   | 4    | 4   | 4    | 0   | 4    | (    |
| from U.S.**         |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+
| **Calendar Yr. Exp. | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0   | 0    | (    |
| to U.S.**           |     |      |     |      |     |      | 1000 |
|                     |     |      |     |      |     |      | MT)  |
+---------------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+------+

#