**REPORT TITLE:** Beaufort Sea Petroleum Development Scenarios:
Transportation Impacts. Final Report.

**STUDY TITLE:** Beaufort Sea Petroleum Development Scenarios:
Transportation Impacts (TR-20).

CONTRACT NUMBER(S): BLM: CT6-61; MMS: 14-12-0001-29002

SPONSORING OCS REGION: Alaska.

APPLICABLE PLANNING AREA(S): Beaufort Sea.

FISCAL YEAR(S) OF PROJECT FUNDING: 1977.

COMPLETION DATE OF REPORT: August 1978.

COST(S): FY 1977: \$17,166; CUMULATIVE PROJECT COST: \$17,166.

PROJECT MANAGER(S): D. Dooley, P. Eakland.

AFFILIATION: Dennis Dooley and Associates.

ADDRESS: 1006 G Street, Anchorage, Alaska 99501.

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR(S)\*: D. Dooley, P. Eakland.

KEY WORDS: Beaufort Sea; Alaska; transportation economics; development;
impacts; scenarios; transportation; air traffic; marine traffic;
forecast; Alaska Region.

ACCESS NUMBER: 29002

**BACKGROUND:** The assessment of impacts from exploration, development,
and production of petroleum reserves on the Beaufort Sea Outer
Continental Shelf (OCS) was a multi-staged and multi-disciplinary
undertaking. The first stage was to develop scenarios that were both
technically and economically feasible and produced a sufficient range of
impacts. The next stage was to develop data (e.g., manpower, materials
requirements, and scheduling) that could be used as primary input for
socioeconomic studies which represent the final stage. This study effort
was intended to provide an assessment of impacts for individual
scenarios on local, regional, and state-wide transportation systems
within the Beaufort Sea region.

**OBJECTIVES:** (1) To assess, on the basis of individual Beaufort Sea
OCS development scenarios, the impacts on local, regional, and
state-wide transportation systems.

**DESCRIPTION:** The report contained three sections, in addition to an
introductory chapter. First, a present‑day baseline (Chapter II) was
established by examining for each mode existing routes, carriers, and
terminals which could realistically serve freight and passenger traffic
generated directly or indirectly by Beaufort Sea OCS activities. Second,
impacts for the non-OCS scenario (Chapter III) were developed. Third,
additional demands resulting from OCS activities were generated (Chapter
IV) and the resulting impacts on transportation systems assessed.

**SIGNIFICANT CONCLUSIONS:** It was projected that transportation
impacts forecast for the Beaufort Sea OCS scenarios could be handled by
the State\'s transportation facilities and services given the analysis
assumptions. During the course of the analysis, two issues emerged which
could significantly affect the nature and extent of transportation
impacts, namely the timing of other resource development activities and
use of ice-breaking vessels, including tankers. Should the
Alaska-Canadian (Alcan) gas line be constructed as scheduled, peak uses
of transportation systems for its construction and for Beaufort Sea OCS
activities were not expected to overlap. The Cape Halkett scenario, in
particular, may be made more economically attractive with the
possibility of transporting its resources by tanker rather than relying
upon the existing pipeline system.

**STUDY RESULTS:** The absence of an inland surface transportation
network, either via water or land, means that transportation demands for
villages and developments adjacent to proposed State/Federal Beaufort
Sea leasing areas will be met primarily on an individual basis and not
through a North Slope distribution system. It was noted that developers
derive no benefits from using existing community

infrastructures and instead create enclaves such as Prudhoe Bay. The
negative social impacts of developments in the region are thus
minimized, but so are the positive impacts, such as reducing
transportation costs to existing communities. A better balance between
decentralization and centralization for surface logistics would produce
better efficiency.

Of the four modes analyzed in the non-OCS case, two of them (i.e., rail
and waterborne) were not expected to experience any problems along
routes that potentially would carry goods and passengers to and from
petroleum activities in the Beaufort Sea. For the air mode, capacity
problems were projected at the international airports in Anchorage and
Fairbanks due to steady growth of the Alaskan economy, continued
reliance of Alaskans on air travel for intercity trips, and increase in
intercity travel. Traffic congestion will appear on several highway
routes close to urban centers or which are heavily used by weekend
recreational travelers. Incremental improvements in roads will provide
for a small capacity increase and greater safety. For the most part,
traffic will be able to travel at service level C (i.e., a free‑flow
condition). Impacts due to heavy loads will result from construction of
the Alcan gas pipeline, but an extensive reconstruction program
accomplished during recent years will enable the road system to
withstand heavy loads to a greater degree than occurred during
TransAlaska Pipeline System construction. Gas pipeline construction will
cause some competition for existing transportation services with the
State\'s normal freight and passenger requirements, particularly for
rail‑car barges to Whittier and shipments to southeastern ports of
Skagway and Haines, but availability of alternate routings will enable
both types of traffic to be accommodated without substantial delays or
cost penalties.

The Camden-Canning scenario, having the largest number of total wells
(538) and the largest number of wells per year (64), produced the
largest impacts due to freight transportation. It was the only scenario
to have projected annual tonnage greater than that for the 1970
sea-lift. During largest tonnage years, modal split for waterborne
tonnage was expected to be 98%. Competition with existing demands for
waterborne transportation should be minimal. Northern Transportation Co.
Ltd. can be expected to expand its fleet of tugs and barges, as
necessary, to accommodate increased development activities in the
Northwest Territories and the Beaufort Sea. Oil companies were expected
to obtain services on a charter basis, minimizing competition with
scheduled services. It was noted that deployment of ocean-going
equipment by large shipping companies occurs on a world-wide rather than
a state-wide basis. Equipment used in the Middle East for part of a year
could be used for Alaska trade the rest of the year, except equipment
designed for arctic conditions. The small tonnage amount that will be
transshipped through major Alaskan ports indicated that only slight
competition will exist for services such as rail barges between Seattle
and Whittier. The largest estimated tonnage in one year, projected to
enter by water and then travel by air or road from Fairbanks to the
Beaufort Sea, was expected to be less than 3,500 tons, or 3% of the
total tonnage in that year. Peak truck loads were expected when manpower
was greatest in late fall and to reach a maximum of 19 per month in
1988. C-130 flights, which were projected to occur during spring
breakup, peaked at approximately four flights per week in the same year.
Passenger flights were expected to peak at approximately eight per week
(1.2 per day) in 1990. Peak freight and passenger flight figures were
not additive, since peak demands occurred at different times of the
year, freight in spring and passengers in late fall.

For the Prudhoe Bay-Small scenario, peak freight tonnage was
approximately 60% of the figure reached in the 1970 sea-lift. Peak truck
loads were projected to be approximately 14 per month, and peak air
freight flights, less than three per week. Peak passenger flights were
approximately one per day. All demands, being less than what had been
accomplished during recent years, should be met with little difficulty
by shippers.

The Cape Halkett scenario had the lowest number of total wells (340) and
wells in any one year (24) and, consequently, its impacts were less than
those of other scenarios. Total freight tonnage did not exceed 66,224
metric tons (73,080 tons) in any one year. Peak air freight flights did
not exceed four per week, despite the fact that road travel was
considered negligible due to the expense that would be required to
construct and maintain a road to the nearest shoreline.

Total freight requirements for field development were less than for
Prudhoe Bay-Small scenario but more intense development of the Prudhoe
Bay-Large scenario produced greater peak annual demand. The maximum
number of wells to be drilled in any one year was 48, greater than all
scenarios except Camden-Canning. The largest annual freight requirements
approached 80% of the figure achieved during the 1970 sea-lift.
Passenger flights per day were greatest for any scenario (1.3) which was
slightly higher than the figure for Camden-Canning. Peak period truck
loads were approximately 24 per month, and peak air freight flights
approximately five per week.

**STUDY PRODUCT(S):** Dennis Dooley and Associates. 1978. Beaufort Sea
Petroleum Development Scenarios: Transportation Impacts. Final Report. A
final report for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land
Management Alaska OCS Office, Anchorage, AK. NTIS No. PB-291917. Social
and Economic Studies Program Technical Report No. 20. Contract No.
14-12-0001-29002. xiv + 163 pp.

\*P.I.\'s affiliation may be different than that listed for Project
Manager(s).