NWS Economic Statistics

June 2002

**[Verified Statistics]{.underline}**

**1**. **Average annual damage from tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods is
\$11.4 billion, of which:**

**B hurricanes average \$5.1 billion and 20 deaths per year;**

**B floods account for \$5.9 billion, and average over 80 deaths per
year;**

**B tornadoes cause \$1.1 billion in damages.**

**Source cited**: website: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/
Extreme Weather Source Book, Science Policy, Colorado EDU/Source Book

**Correct source**: as cited.

**2. The costliest U.S. hurricane was in 1926 in Miami causing \$90
billion in damage (in 2000 dollars). By contrast Andrew (1992) caused
\$40 billion.**

**Source cited**: NWS - TPC -1 \"*The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most
Intense United States Hurricanes from 1900 to 2000 and Other Frequently
Requested Hurricane Facts*,\" 1997.

**Correct source**: NWS - TPC -1 \"*The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most
Intense United States Hurricanes from 1900 to 2000 and Other Frequently
Requested Hurricane Facts*,\" 2001.

**3. \$6 billion annually is lost in economic efficiencies as a result
of air traffic delays, of which 70% are attributed to weather.**

**Source cited**: Air Transport Association Study - 2001.

**Correct source**: *\"2002 State of the U.S. Airline Industry: A Report
on Recent Trends For U.S. Carriers,*\" Air Transport Association, p. 8.

**Note:** Bridgett Duling, economist at the Air Transport Association,
verified that the reported information is \$6 billion total as follows:
\"\$3.2 billion in lost productive time in 2000 and direct costs to the
airline industry totaling an additional estimated \$3.2 billion.\"

**4. Property losses in the 1997-98 El Nino were \$2.6 billion; crop
losses approached \$2 billion.**

**Source cited**: Weiher, Rodney, ed. \"*Improving El Nino Forecasting:
The Potential Economic Benefits*,\" NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce,
1999; Chagnon, Stanley, ed. \"*El Nino 1997-1998; The Climate Event of
the Century*,\" Oxford Press 2000.

**Correct sources**: Property losses were \$2.6 billion from Changnon,
Stanley, ed. \"*El Nino 1997-1998; The Climate Event of the Century*,\"
Oxford Press 2000, p. 144 and p. 201. Crop losses approached \$2 billion
from \"*Improving El Nino Forecasting: The Potential Economic
Benefits*,\" NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1999, p. 18.

**5. California storm losses in the 1997-98 El Nino were \$1.1
billion.**

**Source cited**: Weiher, Rodney, ed. \"*Improving El Nino Forecasting:
The Potential Economic Benefits*,\" NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce,
1999; Chagnon, Stanley, ed. \"*El Nino 1997-1998; The Climate Event of
the Century*,\" Oxford Press 2000.

**Correct source**: Changnon, Stanley, ed. \"*El Nino 1997-1998; The
Climate Event of the Century*,\" Oxford Press 2000, p. 22.

**6. On an average annual basis, \$2.5 billion in otherwise expected
damage costs are avoided as a result of more accurate hurricane watches
and warnings. The economic impact of lives saved accounts for \$1.45
billion of the \$2.5 billion, and \$1.0 billion is due to spared
property.**

**Source cited:** Willoughby, H.E. *\"Costs and benefits of hurricane
forecasting.\"* Preprints, 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical
Meteorology, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, May 29‑June 2, 2000. American
Meteorological Society, Boston.

**Correct source:** as cited.

**7. Economists have quantified the benefits of improved El Nino
forecast in various sectors:**

> **BBenefits to U.S. agriculture by altering planting decisions have
> been estimated at \$265-\$300 million annually, throughout El Nino,
> normal, and La Nina years.**
>
> **BSimilarly, benefits to Mexican agriculture range from \$10 to \$25
> million annually.**

**BBenefits in U.S. corn storage could approach \$200 million
annually.**

> **B Even in small Northwest Coho salmon fisheries, annual benefits are
> estimated in \$250,000 to \$1 million.**

**Source cited:** Weiher, Rodney, ed. *\"Improving El Nino Forecasting:
The Potential Economic Benefits,\"* NOAA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, 1999,
p.4.

**Correct source:** as cited.

**8. Overall, the 1997-1998 El Nino is estimated to have had total U.S.
economic impacts on the order of \$25 billion.**

**Source cited**: Weiher, Rodney, ed. \"*Improving El Nino Forecasting:
The Potential Economic Benefits*,\" NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce,
1999; Chagnon, Stanley, ed. \"*El Nino 1997-1998; The Climate Event of
the Century*,\" Oxford Press 2000.

**Correct Source**: Changnon, Stanley, ed. \"*El Nino 1997-1998; The
Climate Event of the Century*,\" Oxford Press 2000, Chapter 6.

**Note:** From table 6-1 on page 152, losses were \$4.2 to \$4.5 billion
and gains were \$19.6 to \$19.9 billion for a total impact of \$23.8 to
\$24.4 billion. With the estimated error bounds of 30% on page 151, the
\"order of \$25 billion\" is an accurate characterization of the source.
This is also available from secondary sources, e.g. \"Space Daily,\"
March 25 issue, but the primary source should be used.

**9. Each year from 1980 to 1995, on average, five commercial jets
encountered volcanic ash clouds in flight. About 10 percent of these
encounters resulted in loss of power.**

**Source cited: *\"****Benefits of NPOESS for Commercial Ship Routing -
Transit Time Savings,\"* Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2000,
unpublished work.

**Correct source:** as cited.

**10. The overall economic risk from \"airborne\" volcanic ash effects
historically is about \$70 million per year.**

**Source cited: *\"****Benefits of NPOESS for Commercial Ship Routing -
Transit Time Savings,\"* Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2000,
unpublished work.

**Correct source:** as cited.

**11. The benefit from NPOESS data to volcanic ash avoidance in
commercial aviation is estimated at \$10 million per year.**

**Source cited: *\"****Benefits of NPOESS for Commercial Ship Routing -
Transit Time Savings,\"* Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 2000,
unpublished work.

**Correct source:** as cited.

**12. NOAA\'s degree-day information is one of a number of inputs to the
\"weather derivatives\" industry which began in late 1996 and has issued
weather risk management instruments with a notional value of over \$7
billion in the four year period of 1997-2000.**

**Source cited:** \"About the Industry,\" from a NASA/American Society
of Photogammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS) Market Study (NOAA
supported), From NOAA Licensing Files.

**Correct source:** Price Waterhouse Coopers 2001 study prepared for
Weather Risk Management Association.

**Note:** See original (incorrect) wording in problem statistic \# 27.
The term \"notional value\" is a bit awkward, but is understood in the
context of the industry. In layman\'s terms, the \"notional value\" is
analogous to the death benefit of a life insurance policy as opposed to
the premium paid for the policy.

**13. The annual cost of electricity could decrease by at least \$1
billion if the accuracy of weather forecasts improved 1 degree
Fahrenheit.**

**Source cited:** Jones, Del. *\"Forecasts: 1 Degree is Worth \$1B in
Power Savings,\"* USAToday.com, June 19, 2001.

**Correct source:** as cited.

**14. Weather and climate sensitive industries account for about 25
percent of the Nations\' GDP, or \$2.7 trillion, ranging from finance,
insurance, and real estate to services, retail and wholesale trade and
manufacturing.**

**Source cited**: website: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/
Extreme Weather Source Book, Science Policy, Colorado EDU/Source Book

**Correct source**: Dr. John Dutton, Pennsylvania State University,
2001.

**Note:** This is the primary source.

**15. A Typical Year in the US brings: 6 Hurricanes; 1000 Tornadoes;
5,000 Floods; 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms**

**Source:** National Weather Service long-term statistical records

**Note:** These are round figures taken from NWS long-term statistical
records and based on a 30 year averaging period. They should be used to
convey, in broad terms, the severity of US weather.

**16. National implementation of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service (AHPS) will save lives and an estimated \$240 million per year
in flood losses, and will contribute an additional \$520 million per
year in economic benefits to water resources users.**

**Source cited:** National Hydrologic Warning Council

**Correct source:** *\"Use and Benefits of the NWS River and Flood
Forecasts,\"* National Hydrologic Warning Council, April, 2002.

**17.** **The economic value of an operational geomagnetic storm
forecasting system in the North American electricity industry is
estimated at about \$450 million over three years, well above the \$100
million cost of the system.**

**Source cited:** T. J. Teisburg and R. Weiher, \"*Economic Valuation of
Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts in the North American Electric Industry.*\"
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (vol 19:2).

**Correct source:** as cited.

**18. The \"Long Range Weather Forecasting Support of Energy Use at Navy
Activities\" (LRF) program has documented in excess of \$60 million of
savings over the past 15 years.**

**Source cited:** CNO Letter, 20 April 1998

**Correct source:** Chief of Naval Operations memorandum, 20 April 1998

**19. \"Weather services cost each American about \$5 a year‑‑the same
price as a hamburger and fries.\"**

**Source cited**: NWS Budget Office, 2002, Steven Gallagher**.**

**Correct Source:** as cited.