# ![](media/image1.png){width="0.875in" height="0.6083333333333333in"}United States 

**Department of**

**Agriculture**

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

Circular Series

WAP 12-04

December 2004

**Pakistan: Record Cotton Crop Being Delivered**

![](media/image2.wmf)Pakistan\'s 2004/05 cotton production is forecast
at a record 10.0 million bales, up 0.75 million from last month and up
2.25 million from last year. The area forecast is 3.2 million hectares,
unchanged from last month, but up 0.1 million from last year. Pakistan
cotton area is at a record level and increased this season in response
to higher cotton prices earlier this year. The below normal
precipitation amounts received this season turned out to be a boon for
the Pakistan cotton crop. In Pakistan, and other South Asian cotton
areas, the crop often performs better with a lower rainfall seasonal
pattern. Generally, average to above-average rainfall amounts,
particularly in September, are highly correlated with higher pest
incidence. This season the weak monsoon, combined with adequate
irrigation supplies and favorable temperatures created positive growing
conditions which are now evidenced in the arrival and ginning figures
recently released. In a recent report from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners
Association (PCGA), data showed December 1st arrivals far outpacing the
previous record set in 2003. As of December 1, 2004, over 7.87 million
(480 lb.) bales of the cotton crop reached the ginneries, a year-to-year
increase of 53 percent. *(For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield
at 202-690-0135.)*

India: Record Cotton Production Estimated

India\'s 2004/05 cotton production is forecast at a record 15.0 million
bales, up 0.8 million from last month and up 1.2 million from last year.
The area forecast is 9.0 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last
month and up 1.2 million from last year. The India cotton area has
increased in response to higher domestic cotton prices this year. Upward
revisions in area are reported in the states of Andhra Pradesh,
Maharashtra, and Gujarat. As a result of this season's unusual monsoon
rainfall pattern, sowing in these states was extended through early
September compared to the normal end of sowing in late-July. Despite
deficient mid-monsoon rainfall, weather during August and September
improved and favored crop development. The current cotton yield forecast
of 363 kilograms per hectare is below the record set last year when
ideal weather prevailed in nearly all cotton-producing states. This
season's yield forecast is above average due to greater use of high
yielding and Bt cotton varieties throughout India. In addition, this
season's alternating periods of precipitation followed by several days
of sunshine were unfavorable for pest proliferation. *(For more
information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)*

##### World: Cottonseed Estimates Rise On Harvest Information

World cottonseed production for 2004/05 is estimated higher this month
at 42.9 million tons, up 2 percent from last month and up 21 percent
from last year. Harvest results for cotton in many countries are coming
in higher than expected, and cottonseed estimates are therefore being
raised. The largest increases this month are a 340,000-ton cottonseed
increase in India and a 320,000-ton increase in Pakistan. High world
cotton prices last year induced cotton plantings. The 2003/04 Cotlook A
Index (the cheapest five of eligible price quotations from regional
markets) averaged 68.30 and reached a high of over 79.75 in October
2003. The precipitous drop in world cotton prices in June and July 2004,
down to an average 55.70 in July, came too late to dissuade northern
hemisphere farmers from planting. Favorable weather in many countries
has also raised yields. World cottonseed yield for 2004/05 is estimated
at 1.23 tons per hectare, up from 1.14 tons per hectare in 2003/04.
*(For more information, contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0881.)*

# 

# Australia: Drought Takes Its Toll on Wheat Crop

Australia\'s 2004/05 wheat production is forecast at 21.5 million tons,
down 1.0 million from last month and down 3.4 million from last year.
The 2004/05 Australia wheat area forecast is 12.2 million hectares,
unchanged from last month, but down 0.2 million from last year. The
yield forecast of 1.76 tons per hectare is below last year and the
five-year average. Australia's main wheat-producing regions have
received below-normal rainfall this season. Although favorable rains
occurred during August, the positive conditions were short lived with
October weather being mostly unfavorable. Given the lack of sub-soil
moisture for several months, this season's crop needed favorable spring
rains that failed to materialize. The early-November rains in the
southern growing areas only partially offset the negative consequences
of an extended dry spring in the wheat areas. Wheat crops in parts of
Victoria, South Australia, and New South Wales experienced record high
temperatures accompanied by high winds in October. Parts of Australia,
especially New South Wales, have remained in a drought pattern since the
drought of 2002. While Western Australia has been spared the extreme
conditions, the lack of rain since mid-September has reduced yield
potential. Wheat crops in the driest areas are being cut for hay. Wheat
harvest is complete in Queensland and is in full swing in the other
states. *(For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at
202-690-0135.)*

##### Canada: 2004/05 Wheat and Rapeseed Production Estimate Increased

Canada's 2004/05 wheat production is estimated at 25.9 million tons, up
8 percent from last month and up 10 percent from last year. In addition,
rapeseed production is estimated at 7.7 million tons, up 10 percent from
last month and up 14 percent from last year. Canada experienced an
unusually cool and wet growing season this year, which delayed crop
maturation well beyond the normal period. Favorable moisture conditions,
however, boosted overall crop yields to well above average levels and
set the stage for significant increases in overall production. Early
frosts, heavy rain and snow plagued mature grain and oilseed crops
causing significant quality problems and harvest delays. Snow in
particular blanketed a sizable portion of grain growing region of
Alberta and Saskatchewan in October, bringing the 2004 harvest to a
premature standstill. Given these conditions, many crops were expected
to lie unharvested until the spring. However, in November an unusually
warm and dry weather pattern developed which allowed many producers to
both finish harvesting their 2004/05 crops while also advancing their
fall fieldwork for next years crops. Official estimates now indicate
that 98 percent of the 2004/05 wheat crop has been successfully
harvested. Field reports also indicate that the season's ample moisture
and mild growing conditions led to significantly higher crop yields than
was earlier expected. *(For more information, contact Michael Shean at
202-720-7366.)*

# Russia: Lower Estimated Yield for Barley

# 

Russian barley production for 2004/05 is estimated at 17.5 million tons,
down 1.0 million from last month and down 0.5 million from last year.
The revision is based on a slight reduction in estimated yield. Area is
estimated at 10.0 million hectares against 10.0 million last year. The
grain harvest is virtually complete; according to official harvest data,
83.7 million tons of grain (bunker weight, prior to cleaning and drying)
was harvested by November 16 from over 95 percent of the sown area.
Wheat production is estimated at 44.5 million tons, unchanged from last
month, but up 10.4 million from last year. *(For more information,
contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)*

# Ukraine: Highest Corn Harvest Since 1988

Ukrainian corn production for 2004/05 is estimated at 8.0 million tons,
up 1.4 million from last month and up 1.2 million from last year. This
year's harvest is the highest since 1988/89, when output reached 8.6
million tons. The estimated yield of 4.0 tons per hectare narrowly
exceeds the previous record of 3.96 tons per hectare recorded in
1997/98. The crop benefited from a cool, wet growing season and suitable
harvest weather. *(For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at
202-690-0143.)*

**China: Record Soybean Area and Production Expected in 2004/05**

China's 2004/05 soybean production is estimated at a record 18.0 million
tons, up 0.5 million from last month and 2.6 million from last year.
Soybean area is estimated at a record 9.8 million hectares, up 5 percent
from a year ago. The estimated yield of 1.84 tons per hectare is up 11
percent from last year and close to the long-term trend. Favorable
autumn weather in most parts of the country raised soybean yields above
earlier expectations. In the Northeast, scattered showers in September
and October may have caused some harvesting delays, but temperatures
were warmer than normal and most soybeans were harvested before the
arrival of the first hard frost. Warm and mostly dry autumn weather also
favored soybean maturation and harvest on the North China Plain, in
contrast to last year's excessive rain and flooding. A serious autumn
drought may have lowered soybean yields in the Yangtze River basin and
southern China, but higher production in other areas is expected to
offset any losses.

Heilongjiang province in Northeast China accounts for 35 to 40 percent
of China's total soybean production. In 2003/04 it produced a
near-record 5.6 million tons of soybeans from a record 3.4 million
hectares. According to preliminary estimates by the China National Grain
and Oil Information Center, area increased to 3.5 million hectares in
2004/05 and production is expected to reach a record 6.65 million tons.
To put it in perspective, Heilongjiang province would rank 6^th^ in the
world in soybean production behind the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and
India. *(For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at
202-690-0133.)*

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service's
(FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official
statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials,
and the results of economic and satellite imagery analysis. Estimates of
foreign area, yield, and production are from the Production Estimates
and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA's
Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committees. Estimates of U.S. area,
yield, and production are from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics
Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of
rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-417), December 10,
2004.

**Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information
Service. Download an order form at
http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.**

The FAS Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division prepared this
report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released
after 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on January 12, 2004.

**Conversion Table**

[Metric tons to bushels]{.underline}

> Wheat, soybeans = MT \* 36.7437
>
> Corn, sorghum, rye = MT \* 39.36825
>
> Barley = MT \* 45.929625
>
> Oats = MT \* 68.894438

[Metric tons to 480-lb bales]{.underline}

> Cotton = MT \* 4.592917

[Metric tons to hundredweight]{.underline}

> Rice = MT \* 22.04622

[Area & weight]{.underline}

> 1 hectare = 2.471044 acres
>
> 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

For further information, contact:

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division

Ag Box 1045, Room 6541, South Building

Washington, DC 20250-1045

Telephone: (202) 720-0888 Fax: (202) 720-8880

[GENERAL INFORMATION]{.underline}

Division Director Allen Vandergriff 202-720-0888
vandergriff@fas.usda.gov

Administrative Assistant Mary Jackson 202-720-0888
jacksonma@fas.usda.gov

Deputy Director George Douvelis 202-720-0873 douvelis@fas.usda.gov

Remote Sensing Specialist Brad Doorn 202-690-0131 doorn@fas.usda.gov

Contract Representative Theresa Wright 202-720-8887 wrightt@fas.usda.gov

Imagery Archive Coordinator Judy Goldich 202-720-1572
goldich@fas.usda.gov

USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280
bethel@fas.usda.gov

Chief of Technology Services Bob Baldwin 202-720-1860
baldwin@fas.usda.gov

Image Processing Specialist Stephen Macugoski 202-720-6237
macugoski@fas.usda.gov

[COMMODITY-SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Grains Chairperson Michelle Greenberg 202-720-7339
greenberg@fas.usda.gov

Oilseeds Chairperson Paul Provance 202-720-0881 provance@fas.usda.gov

Rice Chairperson Teresa McKeivier 202-720-0879 teresa.mckeivier@usda.gov

Cotton Chairperson Teresa McKeivier 202-720-0879
teresa.mckeivier@usda.gov

Production Database Manager Marnet Whittington 202-720-0886
whittington@fas.usda.gov

[COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Argentina, & Paraguay Bob Tetrault 202-690-0130 tetrault@fas.usda.gov

Brazil, & Canada Michael Shean 202-720-7366 shean@fas.usda.gov

European Union Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 purcellb@fas.usda.gov

Russia, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 lindeman@fas.usda.gov

& non-EU Europe

China, Koreas, Japan, Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133
<sandene@fas.usda.gov>

& Southeast Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, India Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135
crutchfield@fas.usda.gov

Pakistan, & Afghanistan

Southern Africa, West Africa, Curt Reynolds 202-690-0134
reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov

& Turkey

Eastern United States & Mexico Ron White 202-690-0137
whiter@fas.usda.gov

Western United States Carl Gernazio 202-690-0136 gernazio@fas.usda.gov