Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 10/13/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** TU4037

TU4037

**Turkey**

**Dried Fruit**

**Semi-Annual**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)James Higgiston, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Unal Sarigedik, Agricultural Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Turkish raisin production is estimated at 250,000 MT in MY 2004, which
is a record high. This was accomplished even after a frost in most
growing areas in early April. Good weather during the drying season also
improved the quality. TARIS has not announced a procurement price,
however TARIS has already procured about 50,000 MT of the MY 2004 crop
raisins with an advance payment of 1,000,000 TL per kg. Due to the
larger supply, Turkey is projected to export higher quantities (220,000
MT) at lower prices.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Semi-Annual Report

Ankara \[TU1\]

\[TU\]

After having frosts in early April in most parts of the country,
including raisin-growing areas, raisin producers were concerned of lower
production. Despite the frost, plant vegetation was very good and yields
were even higher than normal. This was attributed by industry sources to
the irrigation of orchards by growers right after the frost. Raisin
production estimates for MY 2004 (September 2004 -- August 2005) vary in
between 240,000 MT and 260,000 MT by the majority of industry sources.
Currently, PSD production estimate for MY 2004 is 250,000 MT, which is a
record high level, about 8 percent higher than our earlier estimate, and
16 percent higher than the last year's estimate.

The weather was also very favorable during the drying season, which also
improved the quality of the crop. The earlier estimates on the quality
of MY 2004 crop is about 10 percent for standard #10, 45 percent for
standard #9, and 45 percent for standard #8. The quality of MY 2003 crop
was very good as 75 percent of the crop was standard #9 or better and 25
percent was standard #8.

TARIS has not yet announced a procurement price. However, TARIS already
bought about 50,000 MT of MY 2004 crop raisins with an advance payment
of TL 1,000,000 (about USD 0.67) per kilogram. TARIS is expected to
procure a total of 60,000 MT in MY 2004. This will be fifty-percent
higher than the quantity TARIS procured (about 40,000 MT) in MY 2003
with a lower payment. TARIS paid TL 1,400,000 per kilogram of standard
#9 raisins in MY 2003.

TEKEL has not announced any procurement price either. TEKEL has not
bought any of MY 2004 crop raisins, and does not currently have a
procurement plan. TEKEL bought a total of 6,000 MT at a price of TL
1,040,000 per kilogram in MY 2003.

On the Izmir Commodity Exchange spot market the price is around TL
1,000,000 (about USD 0.67) per kilogram of standard #9 raisins. In early
April, the price for standard #9 raisins was TL 1,300,000 (about USD
1.00 at the time) at the same commodity exchange.

Total MY 2004 domestic consumption is estimated at 28,000 MT, of this
total, about 20,000 MT for domestic consumption and the remainder is for
producing alcohol by TEKEL.

Due to larger supplies and lower prices in MY 2004, Turkey is projected
to export 220,000 MT of raisins, which is ten percent higher than the
earlier estimate and about 15 percent higher than MY 2003 revised
exports. In between September 1 -- October 7, 2004, Turkey exported
40,280 MT of raisins, which is significantly higher (nearly 20 percent)
than the same period last year. On the other hand, the average export
price in MY 2004 (about USD 1,035 per MT) was slightly lower than the
average export price in MY 2003 (about USD 1,100). Exporters enjoyed
high prices of their earlier sales, but prices are currently on the
decline. Export prices for standard #9 currently are around USD 900 per
MT. MY 2003 exports were revised according to data received from the
Aegean Exporters Union. In MY 2003, TARIS exported about 27,600 MT with
an average price of USD 1,088 per MT.

Ending stocks in MY 2004 are expected to increase slightly because of a
larger supply. TARIS had 20,000 MT of raisins in its stocks at the
beginning of MY 2004. PSD domestic consumption and ending stocks in MY
2003 were revised downward because of increased exports.

# Statistical Tables

# PSD Table for Raisins

+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| Turkey      |      |       |      |       |      |       |       |
|             |      |       |      |       |      |       |       |
| Raisins     |      |       |      |       |      |       |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
|             | **20 | *     | **20 | **    | **20 | **    | **    |
|             | 02** | *Revi | 03** | Estim | 04** | Forec | UOM** |
|             |      | sed** |      | ate** |      | ast** |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
|             | **   | *     | **   | *     | **   | *     |       |
|             | USDA | *Post | USDA | *Post | USDA | *Post |       |
|             | Offi | Est   | Offi | Est   | Offi | Est   |       |
|             | cial | imate | cial | imate | cial | imate |       |
|             | \    | \[Ne  | \    | \[Ne  | \    | \[Ne  |       |
|             | [Old | w\]** | [Old | w\]** | [Old | w\]** |       |
|             | \]** |       | \]** |       | \]** |       |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| ##          |      | 09    |      | 09    |      | 09    | MM    |
| #### Market |      | /2002 |      | /2003 |      | /2004 | /YYYY |
|  Year Begin |      |       |      |       |      |       |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| **Area      | 8    | 82000 | 8    | 83000 | 8    | 83000 | HA    |
| Planted**   | 2000 |       | 3000 |       | 3000 |       |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| **Area      | 7    | 79000 | 8    | 81000 | 8    | 82000 | HA    |
| Harvested** | 9000 |       | 1000 |       | 3000 |       |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| **Beginning | 4    | 47623 | 2    | 23398 | 2    | 24103 | MT    |
| Stocks**    | 7623 |       | 3398 |       | 9398 |       |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| **P         | 23   | 2     | 21   | 2     | 23   | 2     | MT    |
| roduction** | 0000 | 30000 | 5000 | 15000 | 0000 | 50000 |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| **Imports** | 1759 | 1759  | 1000 | 1621  | 1000 | 1000  | MT    |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| **TOTAL     | 27   | 2     | 23   | 2     | 26   | 2     | MT    |
| SUPPLY**    | 9382 | 79382 | 9398 | 40019 | 0398 | 75103 |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| **Exports** | 20   | 2     | 18   | 1     | 20   | 2     | MT    |
|             | 5984 | 05984 | 0000 | 91916 | 0000 | 20000 |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| **Domestic  | 5    | 50000 | 3    | 24000 | 3    | 28000 | MT    |
| Co          | 0000 |       | 0000 |       | 0000 |       |       |
| nsumption** |      |       |      |       |      |       |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| **Ending    | 2    | 23398 | 2    | 24103 | 3    | 27103 | MT    |
| Stocks**    | 3398 |       | 9398 |       | 0398 |       |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+
| **TOTAL     | 27   | 2     | 23   | 2     | 26   | 2     | MT    |
| DIS         | 9382 | 79382 | 9398 | 40019 | 0398 | 75103 |       |
| TRIBUTION** |      |       |      |       |      |       |       |
+-------------+------+-------+------+-------+------+-------+-------+

**Export Trade Matrix for Raisins**

  ---------------------- ------------- -------------------- --------------
  **Export Trade                                            
  Matrix**                                                  

  **Country**            Turkey                             

  **Commodity**          Raisins                            

  Time Period            Jan. - Dec.   Units:               Metric Tons

  Exports for:           2003          January - July       **2004**

  U.S.                   106           U.S.                 30

  Others                               Others               

  United Kingdom         47045         United Kingdom       23641

  Germany                37066         Germany              17274

  Netherlands            27480         Netherlands          12601

  Italy                  18226         France               7453

  France                 12730         Australia            5318

  Australia              12525         Italy                3474

  Belgium                8179          Belgium              3328

  Ireland                4980          Ireland              2445

  New Zealand            3803          New Zealand          2396

  Spain                  3148          Spain                1441

  Total for Others       175182                             79371

  Others not Listed      20720                              7055

  Grand Total            196008                             86456
  ---------------------- ------------- -------------------- --------------

**Import Trade Matrix for Raisins**

  ---------------------- ------------- -------------------- --------------
  **Import Trade                                            
  Matrix**                                                  

  **Country**            Turkey                             

  **Commodity**          Raisins                            

  Time Period            Jan. - Dec.   Units:               Metric Tons

  Imports for:           2003          January - July       **2004**

  U.S.                                 U.S.                  

  Others                               Others               

  Uzbekistan             331           Greece               256

  Greece                 288           Netherlands          167

  United Kingdom         271           France               136

  Canada                 237           Uzbekistan           132

  Netherlands            196           Portugal             105

  Germany                102           Germany              42

  Portugal               96            Austria              40

  Denmark                83            United Kingdom       21

  Sweden                 54            New Zealand          21

  France                 46            Norway               21

  Total for Others       1704                               941

  Others not Listed      317                                34

  Grand Total            2021                               975
  ---------------------- ------------- -------------------- --------------