Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 10/20/2003

**GAIN Report Number:** AS3038

AS3038

**Australia**

**Canned Deciduous Fruit**

**Weather Damages Fruit Crops in Victoria**

**2003**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Andrew C. Burst, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Andrew C. Burst

**Report Highlights:**

Adverse weather has trimmed prospects for Australia\'s stone fruit
harvest. A hailstorm and freezing weather will reduce production
prospects for apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines. Pending a more
thorough review of the damage, cannery peach deliveries in calendar year
2004 are now expected to be below the previous forecast.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Canberra \[AS1\]

\[AS\]

An October 15 hailstorm and freezing weather in late September have
caused severe damage to fruit crops in widespread areas of the Goulburn
Valley, a principal fruit-growing region in the northeastern part of the
State of Victoria. Many of the region's fruit trees, particularly the
early season varieties, were in the critical flowering and fruit-setting
stages when the damaging weather hit. The season is about ten days to
two weeks behind normal, which helped to avoid more serious damage from
the unfavorable weather.

Substantial losses are being reported for stone fruit crops \-- apricot,
plum, peach and nectarine. Reportedly, the pear crop in the area was
largely unaffected. The Goulburn Valley produces about one-half of
Australia's stone fruit and a significant percentage of the pear crop.
There are also reports that some of the wine grapes in the area were
damaged, but there is still the possibility of re-shooting of the vines.

Reduced quantities of fruit from the Goulburn Valley will likely have a
substantial impact on availabilities of fresh stone fruit for the
domestic and export markets. Australia's exports of fresh stone fruit
have been rising, with annual shipments exceeding 10,000 metric tons
(MT) of plums and 5,000 MT of nectarines. Lesser quantities of apricots
and peaches also are exported. Most of Australia's fresh stone fruit
exports are destined for markets in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan.
Relatively small quantities of fresh apricots are typically imported
from New Zealand.

The weather also is expected to negatively impact peaches destined for
canning -- the Goulburn Valley is a major canned fruit producing area.
Cannery intake of peaches in calendar year 2004 was expected to rise
about 2.5 percent from the year-earlier level (see Canned Deciduous
Fruit Annual, GAIN Report #AS3035, dated 9/30/03). This increase now is
unlikely to materialize. Pending a more complete assessment of the
damage, Post has revised cannery intake of peaches in 2004 downward from
the previous 54,000 MT to 48,000 MT. Downward revisions also were made
in CY 2004 exports, domestic consumption and ending stocks of canned
peaches.

Industry officials are still assessing the full extent of the damage.
Post will report more detailed information when it becomes available.

+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| Australia       |     |      |     |      |     |      |       |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      |       |
| Canned Peaches  |     |      |     |      |     |      |       |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
|                 | **  | **R  | **  | **Es | **  | **Fo | **    |
|                 | 200 | evis | 200 | tima | 200 | reca | UOM** |
|                 | 1** | ed** | 2** | te** | 3** | st** |       |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
|                 | **U | **   | **U | **   | **U | **   |       |
|                 | SDA | Post | SDA | Post | SDA | Post |       |
|                 | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti | Of  | Esti |       |
|                 | fic | mate | fic | mate | fic | mate |       |
|                 | ial | \    | ial | \    | ial | \    |       |
|                 | \[O | [New | \[O | [New | \[O | [New |       |
|                 | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** | ld\ | \]** |       |
|                 | ]** |      | ]** |      | ]** |      |       |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| ###### Ma       |     | **0  |     | **0  |     | **0  | *     |
| rket Year Begin |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 |     | 1/20 | *MM/Y |
|                 |     | 02** |     | 03** |     | 04** | YYY** |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Deliv. To     | 50  | 5    | 53  | 5    | 0   | 4    | *     |
| Processors**    | 000 | 0200 | 000 | 2700 |     | 8000 | (MT)* |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Beginning     | 9   | 9600 | 5   | 7613 | 6   | 2300 | *(MT, |
| Stocks**        | 600 |      | 802 |      | 292 |      | Net   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | Wei   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | ght)* |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Production**  | 40  | 4    | 43  | 4    | 45  | 3    | *(MT, |
|                 | 670 | 1666 | 990 | 3741 | 000 | 9840 | Net   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | Wei   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | ght)* |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Imports**     | 500 | 420  | 500 | 344  | 200 | 400  | *(MT, |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | Net   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | Wei   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | ght)* |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **TOTAL         | 50  | 5    | 50  | 5    | 51  | 4    | *(MT, |
| SUPPLY**        | 770 | 1686 | 292 | 1698 | 492 | 2540 | Net   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | Wei   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | ght)* |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Exports**     | 9   | 1    | 9   | 1    | 11  | 7300 | *(MT, |
|                 | 386 | 1573 | 000 | 4398 | 000 |      | Net   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | Wei   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | ght)* |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Domestic      | 35  | 3    | 35  | 3    | 35  | 3    | *(MT, |
| Consumption**   | 582 | 2500 | 000 | 5000 | 500 | 3000 | Net   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | Wei   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | ght)* |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **Ending        | 5   | 7613 | 6   | 2300 | 4   | 2240 | *(MT, |
| Stocks**        | 802 |      | 292 |      | 992 |      | Net   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | Wei   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | ght)* |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+
| **TOTAL         | 50  | 5    | 50  | 5    | 51  | 4    | *(MT, |
| DISTRIBUTION**  | 770 | 1686 | 292 | 1698 | 492 | 2540 | Net   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | Wei   |
|                 |     |      |     |      |     |      | ght)* |
+-----------------+-----+------+-----+------+-----+------+-------+