Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 9/10/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** AR4044

**Argentina**

**Fresh Deciduous Fruit**

**Semi-Annual**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Kari Rojas

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Francisco Pirovano

**Report Highlights:**

In calendar year (CY) 2005, pear and apple yields are expected to
increase due to improved production practices. Production in CY 2005 is
forecast at 1.6 million metric tons (MT), up 10 percent from CY 2004's
production. Exports are forecast to increase, as orchards are expected
to produce higher quality products due to better-maintained orchards.
Apple and pear exports are forecast at 200,000 MT and 300,000 MT,
respectively, in CY 2005. Insignificant imports are expected to continue
in CY2005, as the exchange rate favors exports and discourages imports.
Domestic consumption is expected to recover from CY 2004's low levels.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Semi-Annual Report

Buenos Aires \[AR1\]

\[AR\]

**Table of Contents**

[Section I. Situation and Outlook 3](#section-i.-situation-and-outlook)

[Production 3](#production)

[Trade 3](#trade)

[Prices 6](#prices)

[Section II. Statistical Tables 8](#section-ii.-statistical-tables)

# Section I. Situation and Outlook

# Production

While it may be premature to predict next year's production, CY 2005
looks promising for pears and apples. Sources in the industry believe
that, as a result of the peso devaluation, almost all orchards now
receive the necessary care to produce to their potential. Therefore,
from a technical standpoint, all signs indicate there will be a good
harvest in CY 2005, as long as no extreme climatic events occur.

Post forecasts CY2005 total pear and apple production at 1.6 million MT.
Apple harvest is expected to reach 1 million MT while pear production is
forecast at 600,000 MT.

Fresh deciduous fruit production in CY 2004 is estimated at 1.425
million metric tons (MT), down 12 per cent from CY2003's production of
1.610 million MT. Post's previous forecast (AR 4006) estimated a higher
overall loss of 15 percent. However, pear losses caused by a strong
frost on October 10, 2003 were not as high as anticipated. Therefore,
the apple production estimate for CY 2004 remains unchanged at 900,000
MT. CY 2004 pear production, however, is estimated at 525,000 MT, 12
percent lower than CY 2003, not 23 percent as previously reported in AR
4006.CY 2005's concentrated apple juice (CAJ) production is forecast at
62,000 MT. CAJ production in CY 2004 is estimated at 63,000 MT, up
slightly from CY 2003 production of 62,000 MT.

# Trade

CY 2004 apple and pear exports are expected to surpass post's previous
estimate, reaching 190,000 MT and 300,000 MT, respectively. (See table
below).

From January through June 2004, apple exports reached 180,000 MT , or
\$80 million. Pears exports during the same period were 295,000 MT , or
\$140 million. The main export market continued to be the European Union
followed by the Russian Federation, the United States, and Brazil. While
the EU, the Russian Federation, and the U.S. increased their orders in
CY 2004, exports to Brazil continued to fall compared with the first six
months of CY 2003 and CY 2002 due to a strict Brazilian phytosanitary
protocol to avoid the introduction of codling moth (*cydia pmonela*).
This protocol has caused Brazil to decline a number of apple and pear
shipments over the past two years. For more detailed information about
export destinations, see section II statistical tables.

  ------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- --------
  Fresh Apple                                                        
  Exports                                                            

  CY 2001 -                                                          
  2003                                                               

  Country       United                           Quantity            
                States                                               
                Dollars                                              

                2001       2002       2003       2001       2002     2003

  World         97020865   63191568   81986638   194822     165944   200431

  Russia        12610715   12634804   20609925   27774      34382    52763

  EU            57658923   34204493   46104668   99976      84434    109594

  Brazil        22194171   13689367   10983252   57833      39527    27565

  United States 1957727    858818     2254433    3310       2828     4657

  Mexico        96775      172260     393687     167        389      998

  Bolivia       411606     287004     325812     1403       1303     1573

  Colombia      0          74047      316031     0          162      540

  United Arab   89299      82992      205089     185        232      527
  Emirates                                                           

  India         107148     156468     190199     273        428      543

  Malta         0          0          169109     0          0        390

  Paraguay      928834     518117     129829     1988       2024     543

  Bahrain       0          0          84672      0          0        233

  Others        965667     513198     219932     1913       1235     504
  ------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- --------

  ------------ ---------- ----------- ----------- ---------- -------- --------
  Fresh Apple                                                         
  Exports                                                             

  January -                                                           
  June                                                                

  Country      United                             Quantity            
               States                                                 
               Dollars                                                

               2002       2003        2004        2002       2003     2004

  World        54839033   73327461    79414211    140990     178797   179447

  European     40329202   49735904    57459383    101745     119092   126662
  Union                                                               

  Russia       12536583   19989364    18982510    34061      51191    45659

  United       849620     2254430     1092610     1810       4657     2217
  States                                                              

  United Arab  53144      205089      376247      149        527      825
  Emirates                                                            

  Argelia      0          7616        304794      0          20       725

  Bolivia      111739     176416      142515      503        834      766

  Mexico       141164     335891      272985      325        849      632

  Bahrain      0          84672       116452      0          233      296

  Malta        0          169109      125305      0          390      252

  Paraguay     351731     31091       76030       1235       149      290

  Others not   465850     337897      465380      1162       854      1122
  listed                                                              
  ------------ ---------- ----------- ----------- ---------- -------- --------

  ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  Fresh Pear                                                              
  Exports                                                                 

  Calendar                                                                
  Year: 2001 -                                                            
  2003                                                                    

  Country       United                              Quantity              
                States                                                    
                Dollars                                                   

                2001        2002        2003        2001       2002       2003

  World         165928889   135466544   148575258   315708     310797     328188

  European      82493550    64951282    73824059    137136     137839     160540
  Union                                                                   

  Russia        10829901    57034318    27131666    22866      41261      64325

  Brazil        44551094    28862196    21538940    108607     81572      50905

  United States 25853385    22120711    24466592    42798      44130      48765

  United Arab   117432      234865      449788      193        513        845
  Emirates                                                                

  Hong Kong     12235       49280       255607      23         161        565

  Malta         12804       37800       135795      23         81         325

  Saudi Arabia  68679       158979      130805      123        299        265

  Israel        0           0           128970      0          0          252

  Bahrain       11270       17640       91691       20         39         196

  Others        1978539     2032207     421345      3920.145   4796.414   1048.101
  ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ----------

  ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ---------- -------- ---------
  Fresh Pear                                                            
  Exports                                                               

  January -                                                             
  June                                                                  

  Country       United                              Quantity            
                States                                                  
                Dollars                                                 

                2002        2003        2004        2002       2003     2004

  World         121519854   138725352   139399994   271871     307692   294421

  EU            63245213    70534471    68688712    134152     153317   143144

  Russia        16906036    27044848    30365572    40837      64128    68520

  Brazil        16355399    12327351    16945952    45770      31683    37549

  United States 22052992    24466589    18289777    42217      48921    35191

  United Arab   206844      449788      526060      474        845      898
  Emirates                                                              

  Canada        431214      978093      374569      952        2273     762

  Mexico        1139812     1955918     2996675     2508       4347     6116

  Saudi Arabia  130559      130805      361042      260        265      582

  Malta         37800       135795      174797      81         325      354

  Israel        0           128970      120330      0          252      189

  Bahrain       17640       91691       108850      39         196      218

  Others        996345      481033      447658      2582       1140     899
  ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ---------- -------- ---------

  -------------- ----------- ----------- ---------- ---------- -------- -------
  Concentrated                                                          
  Apple Juice                                                           
  Exports                                                               

  January - June                                                        

                 United                             Quantity            
                 States                                                 
                 Dollars                                                

  Year           2002        2003        2004       2002       2003     2004

  World          14639306    27915146    19881632   21407      37088    20511

  United States  14554052    27152864    19741963   21293      36192    20335

  Others         84834       762011      139632     114        896      176
  -------------- ----------- ----------- ---------- ---------- -------- -------

  -------------- ----------------- ---------------- --------------- ----------
  Concentrated                                                      
  Apple Juice                                                       
  Exports                                                           

  Calendar Year:                                                    
  2001 - 2003                                                       

                 United States                      Quantity        
                 Dollars                                            

                 2002              2003             2002            2003

  World          29129791          49079185         42469           63727

  United States  28942589          48196583         42217           62670

  Others         187202            882602           252.379         1056.888
  -------------- ----------------- ---------------- --------------- ----------

Import and export requirements

  ---------------------------------------------------------- ------------
  Fresh Apples and Pears                                     

  Outside Mercosur Area                                      

  Import tariff (%)                                          11.50

  Statistical tax (%)                                        0.50

  Export tax (%)                                             10.00

  Rebate (%) cases of apples and pears containing less than  6.00
  2.5 Kg.                                                    

  Rebate (%) cases of apples and pears containing 2.5 -- 20  5.00
  Kg.                                                        

  Within Mercosur Area                                       

  Import tariff (%)                                          0.00

  Export tax (%)                                             10.00

  Rebate (%) cases of apples and pears containing less than  6.00
  2.5 Kg.                                                    

  Rebate (%) cases of apples and pears containing 2.5 -- 20  5.00
  Kg.                                                        

  Rebate (%) cases of apples containing more than 20 Kg.     3.40

  Rebate (%) cases of pears containing more than 20 Kg.      2.70
  ---------------------------------------------------------- ------------

  ------------------------------------------------------------ ----------
  Concentrated Apple Juice                                     

  Outside Mercosur Area                                        

  Export tariff (%)                                            15.50

  Statistical tax (%)                                          0.50

  Export tax (%)                                               5.00

  Rebate (%)                                                   5.00

  Rebate (%)                                                   6.00

  Within Mercosur Area                                         

  Import tariff (%)                                            0.00

  Export tax (D.E.I. %)                                        5.00

  Rebate (%) containers with more than 1 liter                 5.00

  Rebate (%) containers with less than 1 liter                 6.00
  ------------------------------------------------------------ ----------

# Prices

Domestic wholesale prices in U.S. dollars per MT

  --------------- ---------- --------- --------- -------- --------- --------
  Fresh Apples                                                      
  and Pears                                                         

                  2002                 2003               2004      

                  Pear       Apple     Pear      Apple    Pear      Apple

  January         282        210       287       483      404       476

  February        197        200       251       426      312       414

  March           149        147       241       314      322       371

  April           186        163       265       301      361       389

  May             165        160       259       287      366       329

  June            169        190       250       314      436       331

  July            184        214       272       303      431       380

  August          210        257       287       304      478       401

  September       273        311       356       322      0         0

  October         331        387       408       477      0         0

  November        353        355       430       433      0         0

  December        298        442       677       490      0         0
  --------------- ---------- --------- --------- -------- --------- --------

Source: Buenos Aires Central Market

  --------------- ------------------- ----------------- -----------------
  Domestic Retail                                       
  Prices, Red                                           
  Delicious                                             
  Variety                                               
  (\$/Kg.)                                              

                  2002                2003              2004

  January         0.63                0.78              0.85

  February        0.58                0.68              0.82

  March           0.41                0.59              0.69

  April           0.40                0.60              0.67

  May             0.37                0.57              0.65

  June            0.37                0.58              0.66

  July            0.40                0.57              0.66

  August          0.44                0.57              0.67

  September       0.50                0.62              

  October         0.58                0.70              

  November        0.62                0.73              

  December        0.70                0.77              
  --------------- ------------------- ----------------- -----------------

Source: The National Institute for Statistics (INDEC --www.indec.gov.ar)

# Section II. Statistical Tables

  ---------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ------------ ---------- ---------
  PSD Table                                                                             

  Country          Argentina                                                            

  Commodity        Apples,                                      (HA)(1000               
                   Fresh                                        TREES)(MT)              

                   2002        Revised    2003       Estimate   2004         Forecast   UOM

                   USDA        Post       USDA       Post       USDA         Post       
                   Official    Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official     Estimate   
                   \[Old\]     \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]      \[New\]    

  Market Year                  01/2003               01/2004                 01/2005    MM/YYYY
  Begin                                                                                 

  Area Planted     50          51         50         51                      51         (HA)

  Area Harvested   51          50         51         50                      50         (HA)

  Bearing Trees    21000       21000      21000      21000                   21000      (1000
                                                                                        TREES)

  Non-Bearing      4000        4000       4000       4000                    4000       (1000
  Trees                                                                                 TREES)

  Total Trees      25000       25000      25000      25000      0            25000      (1000
                                                                                        TREES)

  Commercial       1000000     1000000    900000     900000     0            1000000    (MT)
  Production                                                                            

  Non-Comm.        0           0          0          0          0            0          (MT)
  Production                                                                            

  TOTAL Production 1000000     1000000    900000     900000     0            1000000    (MT)

  TOTAL Imports    500         500        600        0          0            0          (MT)

  TOTAL SUPPLY     1000500     1000500    900600     900000     0            1000000    (MT)

  Domestic Fresh   354500      350000     250600     250000     0            350000     (MT)
  Consump                                                                               

  Exports, Fresh   196000      200500     170000     190000     0            200000     (MT)
  Only                                                                                  

  For Processing   450000      450000     480000     460000     0            450000     (MT)

  Withdrawal From  0           0          0          0          0            0          (MT)
  Market                                                                                

  TOTAL            1000500     1000500    900600     900000     0            1000000    (MT)
  UTILIZATION                                                                           
  ---------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ------------ ---------- ---------

  ------------------------ ---------------- ---------------- -------------
  Export Trade Matrix                                        

  Country                  Argentina                         

  Commodity                Apples, Fresh                     

  Time Period              CY               Units:           MT

  Exports for:             2002                              2003

  U.S.                     1827             U.S.             4658

  Others                                    Others           

  Russia                   34382            Russia           52763

  Belgium                  21786            Belgium          31131

  Netherlands              24626            Netherlands      30155

  Brazil                   39527            Brazil           27565

  Spain                    8002             Spain            10622

  Sweden                   4908             Sweden           9880

  Norway                   9589             Norway           9817

  Portugal                 8742             Portugal         7165

  Italy                    3813             Italy            5700

  Bolivia                  1303             Bolivia          1573

  Total for Others         156678                            186371

  Others not Listed        7439                              9402

  Grand Total              165944                            200431
  ------------------------ ---------------- ---------------- -------------

  ------------------------ ---------------- ---------------- -------------
  Import Trade Matrix                                        

  Country                  Argentina                         

  Commodity                Apples, Fresh                     

  Time Period              CY               Units:           MT

  Imports for:             2002                              2003

  U.S.                     59               U.S.             0

  Others                                    Others           

  Chile                    43               Chile            472

  Brazil                   248              Brazil           46

  France                   19               France           0

  Total for Others         310                               518

  Others not Listed        0                                 0

  Grand Total              369                               518
  ------------------------ ---------------- ---------------- -------------

  ----------------- --------------------- ------------------- ------------
  Prices Table                                                

  Country           Argentina                                 

  Commodity         Apples, Fresh                             

  Prices in         US \$                 per uom             MT

                                                              

  Year              2003                  2004                \% Change

  Jan               420                   480                 14%

  Feb               460                   470                 2%

  Mar               410                   430                 5%

  Apr               410                   440                 7%

  May               410                   430                 5%

  Jun               390                   430                 10%

  Jul               390                   0                   -100%

  Aug               370                   0                   -100%

  Sep               380                   0                   -100%

  Oct               400                   0                   -100%

  Nov               410                   0                   -100%

  Dec               430                   0                   -100%

  Exchange Rate     3                     Local Currency/US   
                                          \$                  

  Date of Quote     9/9/2004              MM/DD/YYYY          
  ----------------- --------------------- ------------------- ------------

  ---------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ------------ ---------- ---------
  PSD Table                                                                             

  Country          Argentina                                                            

  Commodity        Pears,                                       (HA)(1000               
                   Fresh                                        TREES)(MT)              

                   2002        Revised    2003       Estimate   2004         Forecast   UOM

                   USDA        Post       USDA       Post       USDA         Post       
                   Official    Estimate   Official   Estimate   Official     Estimate   
                   \[Old\]     \[New\]    \[Old\]    \[New\]    \[Old\]      \[New\]    

  Market Year                  01/2003               01/2004                 01/2005    MM/YYYY
  Begin                                                                                 

  Area Planted     18          18         17         17         0            17         (HA)

  Area Harvested   18          18         17         17         0            17         (HA)

  Bearing Trees    9100        9100       9100       9100       0            9100       (1000
                                                                                        TREES)

  Non-Bearing      1300        1300       1000       1000       0            1000       (1000
  Trees                                                                                 TREES)

  Total Trees      10400       10400      10100      10100      0            10100      (1000
                                                                                        TREES)

  Commercial       600000      600000     460000     525000     0            600000     (MT)
  Production                                                                            

  Non-Comm.        0           0          0          0          0            0          (MT)
  Production                                                                            

  TOTAL Production 600000      600000     460000     525000     0            600000     (MT)

  TOTAL Imports    0           0          0          0          0            0          (MT)

  TOTAL SUPPLY     600000      600000     460000     525000     0            600000     (MT)

  Domestic Fresh   123000      123000     80000      90000      0            120000     (MT)
  Consump                                                                               

  Exports, Fresh   327000      327000     260000     300000     0            330000     (MT)
  Only                                                                                  

  For Processing   150000      150000     120000     135000     0            150000     (MT)

  Withdrawal From  0           0          0          0          0            0          (MT)
  Market                                                                                

  TOTAL            600000      600000     460000     525000     0            600000     (MT)
  UTILIZATION                                                                           
  ---------------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ------------ ---------- ---------

  ---------------------- ------------------ ---------------- -------------
  Export Trade Matrix                                        

  Country                Argentina                           

  Commodity              Pears, Fresh                        

  Time Period            CY                 Units:           MT

  Exports for:           2002                                2003

  U.S.                   44130              U.S.             48765

  Others                                    Others           

  Russian Fed            41261              Russian Fed      64325

  Italy                  50951              Italy            59419

  Brazil                 81572              Brazil           50905

  Belgium                32520              Belgium          33084

  Netherlands            26795              Netherlands      31503

  France                 8319               France           7594

  Portugal               6975               Portugal         6819

  Sweden                 2844               Sweden           5079

  Mexico                 2643               Mexico           4820

  Spain                  2514               Spain            4311

  Total for Others       256394                              267859

  Others not Listed      10273                               11564

  Grand Total            310797                              328188
  ---------------------- ------------------ ---------------- -------------

  ---------------------- ------------------ ---------------- -------------
  Import Trade Matrix                                        

  Country                Argentina                           

  Commodity              Pears, Fresh                        

  Time Period            CY                 Units:           MT

  Imports for:           2002                                2003

  U.S.                   0                  U.S.             0

  Others                                    Others           

  Brazil                 249                Brazil           24

  Chile                  0                  Chile            5

  Total for Others       249                                 29

  Others not Listed      0                                   0

  Grand Total            249                                 29
  ---------------------- ------------------ ---------------- -------------

  ------------------------ ------------- --------------------- -----------
  **Prices Table**                                             

  Country                  Argentina                           

  Commodity                Pears, Fresh                        

  Prices in                \$ FOB        per uom               MT

                                                               

  Year                     2003          2004                  \% Change

  Jan                      470           480                   2%

  Feb                      460           480                   4%

  Mar                      450           480                   7%

  Apr                      440           470                   7%

  May                      440           460                   5%

  Jun                      420           460                   10%

  Jul                      450           0                     -100%

  Aug                      430           0                     -100%

  Sep                      470           0                     -100%

  Oct                      530           0                     -100%

  Nov                      560           0                     -100%

  Dec                      580           0                     -100%

  Exchange Rate            3             Local Currency/US \$  

  Date of Quote            9/9/2004      MM/DD/YYYY            
  ------------------------ ------------- --------------------- -----------

+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| PSD Table     |        |       |      |       |     |      |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Country       | Arg    |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               | entina |       |      |       |     |      |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Commodity     | Apple  |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               | Juice, |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               | Concen |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               | trated |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               |        |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               | (MT)   |       |      |       |     |      |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
|               | 2002   | Re    | 2003 | Est   | 2   | Fore | UOM   |
|               |        | vised |      | imate | 004 | cast |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
|               | USDA   | Post  | USDA | Post  | U   | Post |       |
|               | Of     | Est   | Offi | Est   | SDA | Esti |       |
|               | ficial | imate | cial | imate | Of  | mate |       |
|               | \      | \[    | \[O  | \[    | fic | \[N  |       |
|               | [Old\] | New\] | ld\] | New\] | ial | ew\] |       |
|               |        |       |      |       | \   |      |       |
|               |        |       |      |       | [Ol |      |       |
|               |        |       |      |       | d\] |      |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Market Year   |        | 01    |      | 01    |     | 01/  | MM    |
| Begin         |        | /2003 |      | /2004 |     | 2005 | /YYYY |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Deliv. To     | 450000 | 4     | 48   | 4     | 0   | 45   | (MT)  |
| Processors    |        | 50000 | 0000 | 60000 |     | 0000 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Beginning     | 13333  | 13333 | 1    | 10233 | 10  | 1    | (MT)  |
| Stocks        |        |       | 0233 |       | 733 | 1733 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Production    | 62000  | 62000 | 6    | 63000 | 0   | 6    | (MT)  |
|               |        |       | 6000 |       |     | 2000 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Imports       | 500    | 500   | 500  | 500   | 0   | 4000 | (MT)  |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY  | 75833  | 75833 | 7    | 73733 | 10  | 7    | (MT)  |
|               |        |       | 6733 |       | 733 | 7733 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Exports       | 63600  | 63600 | 6    | 60000 | 0   | 6    | (MT)  |
|               |        |       | 4000 |       |     | 3000 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Domestic      | 2000   | 2000  | 2000 | 2000  | 0   | 2000 | (MT)  |
| Consumption   |        |       |      |       |     |      |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Ending Stocks | 10233  | 10233 | 1    | 11733 | 0   | 1    | (MT)  |
|               |        |       | 0733 |       |     | 2733 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| TOTAL         | 75833  | 75833 | 7    | 73733 | 0   | 7    | (MT)  |
| DISTRIBUTION  |        |       | 6733 |       |     | 7733 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+

+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| PSD Table     |        |       |      |       |     |      |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Country       | Arg    |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               | entina |       |      |       |     |      |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Commodity     | Apple  |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               | Juice, |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               | Concen |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               | trated |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               |        |       |      |       |     |      |       |
|               | (MT)   |       |      |       |     |      |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
|               | 2002   | Re    | 2003 | Est   | 2   | Fore | UOM   |
|               |        | vised |      | imate | 004 | cast |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
|               | USDA   | Post  | USDA | Post  | U   | Post |       |
|               | Of     | Est   | Offi | Est   | SDA | Esti |       |
|               | ficial | imate | cial | imate | Of  | mate |       |
|               | \      | \[    | \[O  | \[    | fic | \[N  |       |
|               | [Old\] | New\] | ld\] | New\] | ial | ew\] |       |
|               |        |       |      |       | \   |      |       |
|               |        |       |      |       | [Ol |      |       |
|               |        |       |      |       | d\] |      |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Market Year   |        | 01    |      | 01    |     | 01/  | MM    |
| Begin         |        | /2003 |      | /2004 |     | 2005 | /YYYY |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Deliv. To     | 450000 | 4     | 48   | 4     | 0   | 45   | (MT)  |
| Processors    |        | 50000 | 0000 | 60000 |     | 0000 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Beginning     | 13333  | 13333 | 1    | 10233 | 10  | 1    | (MT)  |
| Stocks        |        |       | 0233 |       | 733 | 1733 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Production    | 62000  | 62000 | 6    | 63000 | 0   | 6    | (MT)  |
|               |        |       | 6000 |       |     | 2000 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Imports       | 500    | 500   | 500  | 500   | 0   | 4000 | (MT)  |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY  | 75833  | 75833 | 7    | 73733 | 10  | 7    | (MT)  |
|               |        |       | 6733 |       | 733 | 7733 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Exports       | 63600  | 63600 | 6    | 60000 | 0   | 6    | (MT)  |
|               |        |       | 4000 |       |     | 3000 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Domestic      | 2000   | 2000  | 2000 | 2000  | 0   | 2000 | (MT)  |
| Consumption   |        |       |      |       |     |      |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| Ending Stocks | 10233  | 10233 | 1    | 11733 | 0   | 1    | (MT)  |
|               |        |       | 0733 |       |     | 2733 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+
| TOTAL         | 75833  | 75833 | 7    | 73733 | 0   | 7    | (MT)  |
| DISTRIBUTION  |        |       | 6733 |       |     | 7733 |       |
+---------------+--------+-------+------+-------+-----+------+-------+

  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  Export Trade                                          
  Matrix                                                

  Country           Argentina                           

  Commodity         Apple Juice,                        
                    Concentrated                        

  Time Period       CY                Units:            MT

  Exports for:      2002                                2003

  U.S.              42217             U.S.              62670

  Others                              Others            

  Russian Fed       0                 Russian Fed       771

  Trinidad & Tobago 35                Trinidad & Tobago 184

  Dominican Rep     72                Dominican Rep     45

  Uruguay           0                 Uruguay           23

  Colombia          0                 Colombia          12

  Paraguay          6                 Paraguay          10

  Bolivia           0                 Bolivia           6

  Chile             75                Chile             3

  Panama            0                 Panama            1

  Total for Others  188                                 1055

  Others not Listed 64                                  2

  Grand Total       42469                               63727
  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

  ----------------- ------------------ ------------------ -----------------
  Import Trade                                            
  Matrix                                                  

  Country           Argentina                             

  Commodity         Apples, Fresh                         

  Time Period       CY                 Units:             MT

  Imports for:      2002                                  2003

  U.S.              59                 U.S.               0

  Others                               Others             

  Chile             43                 Chile              472

  Brazil            248                Brazil             46

  France            19                 France             0

  Total for Others  310                                   518

  Others not Listed 0                                     0

  Grand Total       369                                   518
  ----------------- ------------------ ------------------ -----------------

  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  Prices Table                                          

  Country           Argentina                           

  Commodity         Apple Juice,                        
                    Concentrated                        

  Prices in         \$ FOB            per uom           MT

                                                        

  Year              2003              2004              \% Change

  Jan               690               770               12%

  Feb               710               820               15%

  Mar               730               820               12%

  Apr               730               980               34%

  May               790               980               24%

  Jun               780               980               26%

  Jul               780               0                 -100%

  Aug               800               0                 -100%

  Sep               890               0                 -100%

  Oct               790               0                 -100%

  Nov               800               0                 -100%

  Dec               850               0                 -100%

  Exchange Rate     3                 Local Currency/US 
                                      \$                

  Date of Quote     9/9/2004          MM/DD/YYYY        
  ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------