NOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN

**THORPEX:**

***A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM***

***NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Team***

***October 23, 2003***

TABLE OF CONTENTS

[1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3](#executive-summary)

[2. INTRODUCTION 6](#introduction)

[2.1 RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS AND NOAA'S MISSION GOAL
6](#research-requirements-and-noaas-mission-goal)

[2.2 CURRENT STATUS OF WEATHER FORECASTING
6](#current-status-of-weather-forecasting)

[2.2.1 MAJOR FORECAST COMPONENTS 6](#major-forecast-components)

[2.2.2 TRADITIONAL FORECAST PROCESS 8](#traditional-forecast-process)

[2.2.3 STATUS QUO SCENARIO 9](#status-quo-scenario)

[2.3 THE THORPEX PROGRAM 10](#the-thorpex-program)

[2.3.1 THE NEW FORECAST PARADIGM 10](#the-new-forecast-paradigm)

[2.3.2 SCIENCE OBJECTIVES 10](#science-objectives)

[2.3.3 SERVICE APPLICATION GOALS 11](#service-application-goals)

[2.3.4 PROGRAM ORGANIZATION 11](#program-organization)

[3. SCIENCE PLAN 14](#science-plan)

[3.1 MAJOR THEMES 14](#major-themes)

[3.2 OPEN SCIENCE QUESTIONS 19](#open-science-questions)

[3.3 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT TASKS 24](#research-and-development-tasks)

[4. IMPLEMENTATION PLAN 31](#implementation-plan)

[4.1 PROGRAM ORGANIZATION 31](#program-organization-1)

[4.1.1 PROGRAM ADMINISTRATION 31](#program-administration)

[4.1.2 EXTRAMURAL RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM
31](#extramural-research-grant-program)

[4.1.3 INTRAMURAL RESEARCH PROGRAMS 32](#intramural-research-programs)

[4.1.4 INFRASTRUCTURE / CORE ACTIVITIES
33](#infrastructure-core-activities)

[4.1.5 COORDINATION WITH OTHER PROGRAMS / ORGANIZATIONS
34](#coordination-with-other-programs-organizations)

[4.2 WORK PLAN 36](#work-plan)

[4.3 DELIVERABLES 36](#deliverables)

[4.4 PERFORMANCE MEASURES 38](#performance-measures)

[4.5 BROADER IMPACT ON SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
39](#broader-impact-on-scientific-research)

[4.6 EDUCATION AND OUTREACH 40](#education-and-outreach)

[4.7 PATH TO OPERATIONS 41](#path-to-operations)

[4.8 BUDGET 41](#budget)

[5. APPENDIX 43](#appendix)

[5.1 LINK WITH NOAA'S STRATEGIC GOALS
43](#link-with-noaas-strategic-goals)

[5.2 LINK WITH THE NWS STIP PROCESS 46](#link-with-the-nws-stip-process)

[5.3 CONTRIBUTORS 47](#contributors)

[5.4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 48](#acknowledgements)

[5.5 REFERENCES 48](#references)

[5.6 LIST OF ACRONYMS 50](#list-of-acronyms)

Number range CHAPTER

Number range CHAPTERNOAA LONG-TERM RESEARCH PROGRAM PLAN

**THORPEX:**

***A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH PROGRAM***

# EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

THORPEX AND NOAA'S STRATEGIC GOALS. The overarching goal of NOAA's
THORPEX Program is to significantly accelerate improvements in weather
forecasting in a strategic fashion over the next decade. NOAA's THORPEX
Program is being developed in support of NOAA's Third Mission Goal of
serving "Society's needs for weather and water information" (NOAA,
2003).

ANTICIPATED FUTURE NEEDS. During the last few decades of the twentieth
century, economic and other developments have made society more
susceptible to adverse weather conditions. As a result, society is
becoming more reliant on information about future weather both to avoid
adverse weather losses, and to take advantage of favorable conditions.
Since this trend is expected to continue and perhaps accelerate, new
needs are likely to develop in terms of weather forecast information:

1)  An overriding need is expected to develop for reliable information
    on forecast uncertainty. Since rational decision-making is
    contingent upon the availability of such information, forecast
    uncertainty information will become a basic user requirement;

2)  To counteract society's ever increasing sensitivity to weather
    conditions, it is also expected that there will be a strong need for
    more detailed and more skillful forecast information.

CURRENT STATUS. The weather forecasting process consists of four major
steps:

1)  Collection of observations to properly assess the initial state of
    the system;

2)  Assimilation of all such data into a format ("analysis") used in
    Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP);

3)  Generation of possible forecast scenarios given the analysis and its
    uncertainty, using NWP models;

4)  Post-processing (synoptic and statistical) of NWP forecast data and
    their economic or societal applications.

Traditionally, the four sub-components of weather forecasting are
developed separately. As a result, the forecast process consists of
somewhat disjoint steps. This poses a serious limitation on improvement
both in methods and performance.

PROGRAM OBJECTIVE. THORPEX proposes to contribute to the development of
a strategically new approach to forecasting. According to this new
paradigm, the NWP forecast process will be:

1)  Integrated. Improvements to the four sub-components will be
    designed, implemented, and evaluated in a coordinated fashion, based
    on the concept of end-to-end forecasting.

2)  Adaptive. Observation, assimilation, forecast, and application
    procedures will vary depending on the case and forecast situation.

3)  User controllable. All four components of the forecast process, if
    desired, will be driven by the case specific collective needs and
    requirements of the users.

PROGRAM ELEMENTS. These objectives will be met through a long-term
research program coordinated among the four sub-areas of NWP
forecasting, that will address the open scientific questions related to
the development of the new NWP paradigm. The scientific questions will
be addressed through a series of interconnected research and development
tasks that will lead to the emergence of new NWP methods and activities.

COLLABORATIVE EFFORT. The THORPEX program is so complex, and its major
goal of developing a new NWP paradigm is so ambitious, that it cannot be
realized by the efforts of a single line office, agency, or even nation.
Therefore, cross-cutting collaboration among different public and
private research and user outlets, both on the national and
international level, is critical to the success of THORPEX.

APPLICATIONS. While all THORPEX research will aim at achieving the
overarching goal of developing the new NWP paradigm, individual agencies
and nations are expected to focus on different areas in terms of
applications. The Office of Naval Research (ONR), for example, may
pursue THORPEX research applicable in a meso-scale environment, while
European nations are expected to pursue research focused on the 1-3 day
weather forecast range.

DELIVERABLES. Given other existing programs and activities, NOAA's
primary interest in THORPEX is medium- and extended-range (3-14 day)
weather forecasting over the US. The practical goal of NOAA's THORPEX
program is the development of new techniques that will (1) accelerate
the rate of forecast improvement over the next decade, to allow, for the
first time, detailed and skillful (2) precipitation forecasts for the
3-7 day period; and (3) daily weather forecasts for the 8-14 day period,
both in probabilistic form.

SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS -- BENEFITS FOR NOAA. The efforts of different
agencies on various applications, coordinated on the national and
international level, will benefit NOAA by contributing to the overall
development of the new NWP paradigm. At the same time, they will provide
ready-to-use methods and techniques in application areas not covered by
the NOAA effort, such as meso-scale and 1-3 day forecasting. To maximize
the benefits in these application areas, the NOAA THORPEX program will
collaborate closely with other NOAA and United States Weather Research
Program (USWRP) programs, such as the Pacific Landfall Jets Experiment
(PACJET) and the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) program. Additionally,
THORPEX will interface with the climate community for improved climate
monitoring and for the development of a seamless NOAA weather and
climate forecast suite.

SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS -- NOAA CONTRIBUTIONS. In a reciprocal fashion,
NOAA's THORPEX efforts will benefit other programs and agencies involved
in weather forecasting activities. To further this goal, NOAA will carry
out an aggressive education and outreach program on the national and
international level to ensure that the benefits resulting from the new
integrated, adaptive, and user controlled NWP process will reach a wide
range of users, including those in less developed nations.

PERFORMANCE MEASURES. Faithful to its integrated approach, THORPEX will
use a unique and comprehensive performance measure, based on the concept
of end-to-end forecasting. To assess overall success, the new NWP
paradigm will be evaluated based on whether the societal benefits
resulting from the new forecast procedures exceed their implementation
and maintenance costs.

RESOURCE REALLOCATION. Contributions from the four sub-areas will also
be measured and compared to each other in the *implementation and
maintenance cost vs. incremental forecast benefit* framework. This
integrated THORPEX evaluation approach will permit, for the first time,
a meaningful assessment of the comparative value of NWP sub-component
improvements on the overall societal and economic value of 3-14 day
weather forecasts. Such an analysis will provide an important input for
a rational reallocation of research and operational resources to ensure
that the nation has a balanced and cost effective research and
operational weather forecast infrastructure.

PATH TO OPERATIONS. The new methods and activities that THORPEX will
develop can benefit society only if implemented into NOAA operations.
THORPEX envisages a very strong collaboration between researchers at
academic and operational institutes during the course of the entire
program, from design through research to delivery. This will ensure a
smooth, speedy transition of results from research into operations. To
facilitate such collaboration, THORPEX will establish an operational
test facility where extramural research achievements can be tested and
subsequently implemented into the operational environment in an
efficient manner.

BUDGET. To ensure the success of its integrated effort, NOAA's THORPEX
program requests a budget to fund research in all four NWP
sub-components in a balanced fashion. Total requested funds are \$2,
\$5, and \$10M for years 1, 2, and 3-11, respectively. All initiatives
under NOAA's THORPEX program will be peer reviewed and more than half of
the requested funds will be distributed to extramural research efforts.
The rest of the budget will be used to create and maintain an
infrastructure essential for conducting THORPEX research, such as the
enhancement of related NOAA research activities, the establishment of an
Operational NWP Test Facility (ONTF) and data base, and real-time
testing and demonstration of the new forecast paradigm.

# INTRODUCTION

## 2.1 RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS AND NOAA'S MISSION GOAL

One of the four Mission Goals of NOAA is to "Serve society's needs for
weather and water information" (Strategic Plan, NOAA 2003, also see
Section 5.2). NOAA's THORPEX Research Program is being developed to
ensure that the nation's evolving needs for weather and water related
environmental forecasts can be adequately met in the future.

In recent decades society has become more sensitive to weather, partly
due to increases in the US population, the gross domestic product, and
coastal developmental activities. Today, close to one quarter of the US
economy (about \$2.7 trillion) is sensitive to weather. Severe storms
(hurricanes, tornadoes, etc) alone cause \$11 billion in damages
annually. To mitigate adverse weather losses and to benefit from
favorable weather conditions, individuals and organizations increasingly
use information on future weather in their decision making process. The
value of daily weather forecasts to the public is currently estimated to
be nearly \$12 billion annually.

NOAA anticipates that this trend will continue or even accelerate,
resulting in an increased demand for weather and water forecast
information in the future. In response, "NOAA must expand forecast and
warning services" (Strategic Plan, NOAA 2003). To facilitate their wider
and more efficient use, the information content of weather forecasts
will have to be enhanced. On one hand, the skill of weather forecasts in
general will be increased. On the other hand, new probabilistic forecast
formats will be introduced to facilitate the incorporation of future
weather-related information into formal user decision-making algorithms
(Strategic Plan, NWS 1999). Together, these changes will significantly
enhance the utility of weather and related water forecasts, and will
widen the range of users who can benefit from them. THORPEX is designed
to provide the scientific and technological infrastructure necessary to
meet these future weather related forecast needs and challenges through
a long-term international research program whose major goal is to
accelerate weather forecast improvements in the coming decade.

As NOAA's operational arm of weather forecast activities, the National
Weather Service (NWS) is especially interested in the success of the
THORPEX program. Accordingly, NOAA's participation in the THORPEX
program is guided by the Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP, see
also Section 5.3) of the NWS, ensuring that the long term research
activities are directly connected with the operational needs of NOAA.

## 2.2 CURRENT STATUS OF WEATHER FORECASTING

### *2.2.1 MAJOR FORECAST COMPONENTS*

The goal of weather forecasting is to provide advance knowledge about
the expected conditions of the atmosphere to interested users. Today,
most weather forecasts issued in the 1-14 day time range are based on
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model guidance. Though human
forecasters are able to add value to these numerical guidance products
in many cases, past improvements seen in weather forecasts have been
closely tied to improvements in NWP model guidance (see Fig. 1).
Therefore, to achieve NOAA's weather forecast goals one must consider
improvements to all NWP forecast procedures. ![](media/image1.wmf)

In general, the utility of NWP-based weather forecasts depends on the
quality of its four main components:

1)  **Observing system** of the atmosphere and its surrounding ocean and
    land conditions, for the collection of data used in defining the
    initial conditions for NWP model forecasts;

2)  **Data assimilation system** that, based on the observational data
    and a prior NWP forecast estimate, creates the initial conditions
    for NWP forecasting;

3)  **Forecast procedures**, including NWP modeling and ensemble
    techniques that generate forecast products;

4)  **Applications** in various economic and societal areas. Before
    their final utilization by the end users, NWP forecasts are often
    post-processed statistically to reduce their systematic errors and
    are also reviewed and modified by human forecasters for further
    quality enhancements.

### *2.2.2 TRADITIONAL FORECAST PROCESS*

![](media/image2.wmf)Traditionally, the four components of NWP: the
observing, data assimilation, forecasting, and application sub-systems
have been developed with less than optimal coordination. This has
resulted in an NWP forecast process that is largely made up of disjoint
steps. For example, until recently, new atmospheric observational
platforms were often developed without direct consideration of NWP data
assimilation and forecast requirements. Similarly, the requirements of
the forecast and application components had little or no influence on
the NWP components whose input they use.

In current operations, a component in the forecast process is connected
to the next sub-system by an output in the form of a single
(observation, analysis, or forecast) value (see Fig. 2). For example,
the quality of the initial conditions generated by data assimilation
schemes was not used as input in NWP forecasting until the recent
introduction of ensemble techniques. Also, apart from some special
cases, users had no access to case dependent probabilistic forecast
information that could have substantially enhanced the utility of
weather forecasts. THORPEX recognizes that the current lack of focus on
the interdependence between the various components of the NWP forecast
process is a serious limit to further advances in NWP forecasting.

### *2.2.3 STATUS QUO SCENARIO*

![](media/image3.wmf)NOAA, along with other national and international
organizations, spends substantial resources on maintaining and improving
NWP weather forecast activities. Due to these efforts, NWP procedures
have shown a steady improvement over the past 50 years. For example, by
1990 the skill of a 72-hour forecast became as high as that of a 36-hour
forecast made 15-18 years earlier (see Fig. 3).

However, in any learning situation, maintaining the rate of improvement
becomes ever more difficult as the level of skill rises. Assuming no
change in the level of research activities, one must realistically
expect a decrease in the rate of forecast improvement. Not surprisingly,
the rate of forecast improvement shown in Fig. 3 has decreased in recent
years despite continued research efforts. Extrapolating the reduced rate
of skill improvement observed since 1990 into the future, one might
expect that without some major change in the forecast system, it would
take around 46 years (more than twice the 18 years of the 1960-1990
period) for 72-hour forecasts to become as skillful as the current
36-hour forecasts. In view of ever increasing societal needs and
expectations, such a decrease in the rate of forecast improvement, at a
time when the sensitivity of society to weather and related water
conditions is sharply increasing (see, e. g., Dutton 2002), may not be
acceptable. The THORPEX program offers a new NWP strategy as an
alternative to this status quo scenario.

##  THE THORPEX PROGRAM

THORPEX (2002) is a major international long-term Global Atmospheric
Research Program coordinated in the US by the US Weather Research
Program (USWRP). Currently eleven countries participate in THORPEX,
which is under consideration for status as an official World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) program.

### *THE NEW FORECAST PARADIGM*

The motivation for THORPEX is the realization that accelerating, or even
maintaining, the rate of forecast improvement requires a drastically new
approach to numerical weather prediction. Therefore, THORPEX proposes to
replace the old forecast system by one based on a new NWP paradigm.
Under this new NWP paradigm, the forecast process is:

1)  Integrated, with its interactive components developed as a whole;

2)  Adaptive, adjusting to the evolving atmospheric environment;

3)  Dynamically controllable by the users, adjusting to the changing
    user needs.

The major themes of the new NWP paradigm, and a research path to their
development, are discussed in more detail in the next (Science Plan)
section of this document.

### *2.3.2 SCIENCE OBJECTIVES*

*The main scientific goal of THORPEX is the development of an
integrated, adaptive, and user controlled NWP forecast process.* This
new NWP process is expected to accelerate improvements in the accuracy
and utility of operational global numerical weather prediction (NWP)
forecasts that are of most interest to and have the largest impact on
society. Due to its application-oriented nature, THORPEX has a great
potential to significantly contribute to achieving the third Mission
Goal of NOAA, serving "Society's needs for weather and water
information" (NOAA 2003), and maps directly onto the Strategic Goals of
the US National Weather Service (NWS, 1999).

### *2.3.3 SERVICE APPLICATION GOALS*

Considering other existing programs and activities, NOAA's primary
interest in THORPEX is the development of scientifically based and cost
effective new techniques that can *accelerate improvements in medium-
and extended range (3-14 day) weather forecasts over the US*. Major
improvements in weather forecasting techniques are expected to allow,
for the first time, the issuance of

(1) Skillful probabilistic precipitation forecasts for the 3-7 day
    period;

\(2\) Skillful probabilistic daily weather forecasts for the 8-14 day
period.

Accomplishing the second service goal will require advances in our
knowledge of weather and climate processes, including the connections
between the atmosphere and the ocean. Therefore addressing NOAA's second
objective in THORPEX is also expected to lead to significant
improvements in the area of climate monitoring and forecasting.

### *2.3.4 PROGRAM ORGANIZATION*

*2.3.4.1 Need for Collaboration*

*Science Objectives*. The development of the new forecast paradigm and
process requires a major investment in NWP-related research and
development, spanning a wide range of disciplines from observing
instrument and platform design through different branches of atmospheric
sciences to economic and societal studies. Though isolated pieces of the
proposed new forecast paradigm already exist today, the development of
an integrated forecast process requires a comprehensive approach. To
bridge the gap between the various components of the weather forecast
process, research will be needed that cuts across the borders of the
traditional disciplines. Given the wide range of disciplines and issues
that need to be considered for the development of the necessary
techniques, no single agency or nation on its own has the capability and
resources to accomplish the overall scientific and wide-ranging service
application goals of THORPEX. Interagency and international
collaboration, proposed within the framework of THORPEX, is, therefore,
a key element to success. Due to the application-oriented nature of the
major THORPEX science goal, collaboration between the operational and
research communities will also be essential.

*Service Applications*. Potential service applications also span a wide
spectrum, from short- to medium- and extended-range weather prediction.
No single agency or nation would be able to simultaneously develop
viable applications in all of these areas. The different participating
agencies and nations are expected to concentrate their work in
application areas based on their particular priorities. By applying the
same scientific principles, yet working on their specific application
goals, participating agencies and nations can reap considerably more
benefit from the international collaboration than their necessarily
limited individual contributions to the program will be. By coordinating
and leveraging efforts supported by various national and international
organizations, the synergistic activities of THORPEX can lead to weather
forecasting advances in all application areas that could not be achieved
through the isolated work of individual agencies or nations. This
unique, coordinated effort within THORPEX thus offers not only
scientific advances from internationally coordinated research, but also
the exchange of various service applications developed by the different
organizations in the course of their THORPEX research.

*Weather Forecast Research Program.* While there have been a number of
major national and international research programs aimed at improved
monitoring and forecasting of climate since the First GARP (Global
Atmospheric Research Program) Global Experiment (FGGE), no comprehensive
program has been established to advance research in the area of *NWP
weather prediction*. THORPEX is being organized, based on the
recognition discussed above, that there is a great need for a major
international program oriented at weather forecasting. Such a program,
in coordination with the NOAA Office of Global Programs (OGP 2002) and
international climate related research programs, such as the
International Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability
(CLIVAR) and the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment)
Americas Prediction Project (GAPP), will significantly advance our
weather forecast capabilities, and at the same time will help bridge the
currently existing gap between short term weather and climate
forecasting.

*2.3.4.2 International and Regional Committees*

The organizational structure of the international THORPEX program
reflects the need for collaboration on a multitude of levels. The global
scientific direction of the program is set by the International Science
Steering Committee (ISSC), based on general guidelines from the
International Core Steering Committee (ICSC). The ISSC considers the
needs of the different regions, expressed by the Regional Science
Steering Committees (RSSC) and their oversight bodies, the Regional Core
Steering Committees (RCSC). The RSSCs and RCSCs in turn receive input
from and coordinate the work of individual participating nations and
agencies. While the International Committees have been formed, the
Regional Committees are currently being organized (such as the Asian,
European, and North American THORPEX committees (ASSC, ACSC, ESSC, ECSC,
NASSC, NACSC)).

*2.3.4.3 Extramural Contributions*

*Regional Efforts.* European nations are likely to focus their attention
on improving 1-3 day forecasts over Europe, while the Asian nations will
likely center their THORPEX research on forecasting large impact
atmospheric phenomena in their area of interest.

*US Agencies*. While NOAA is the major provider of NWP weather forecasts
for civilian applications in the US, a variety of Department of Defense
agencies such as the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), the Office of
Naval Research (ONR), the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography
Center (FNMOC), and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) are also
expected to benefit from THORPEX research. Meteorological sensors and
observational network design are of particular importance to defense
operations over data sparse regions. NRL in particular has a significant
program in observational network design, data assimilation, and
predictability, while the Office of Naval Research (ONR) will likely
focus its THORPEX efforts on enhanced observing, data assimilation, and
forecasting activities related to smaller spatial and time scales.

Among the other US agencies that have similarly strong interest in
THORPEX, the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) is
particularly interested in the validation of new types of satellite data
against in-situ observations. Such an effort in the framework of THORPEX
would allow a thorough testing of data in terms of state of the art data
assimilation and forecast applications. For example, NASA's Langley
Research Center took a leading role in organizing the first THORPEX
Observing System Test (TOST) period, where a number of remote and
in-situ observing platforms are deployed over the northeast Pacific in
February-March 2003. This program coincides with the Winter Storm
Reconnaissance (WSR, Toth et al. 2002) program of the National Weather
Service (NWS), offering benefits to both the research-oriented TOST and
the operational WSR programs. The Data Assimilation Office of the NASA
Goddard Space and Flight Center (GSFC) and the multi-agency Joint Center
for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) will be other important US
players in the THORPEX program. While other agencies and nations may
focus their interest on achieving specific forecast service goals,
National Science Foundation (NSF) may direct most of its efforts to
advancing the general science goals of THORPEX.

*2.3.4.4 NOAA's Role*

*As a Beneficiary*. The accomplishment of NOAA's THORPEX related service
application goals (3-14 day probabilistic forecasts) are contingent upon
fulfilling the overall THORPEX science objectives (integrated, adaptive,
and user controlled forecast process), and eventually upon the success
of the international program as a whole. Therefore all the extramural
efforts described above will complement NOAA's work aimed at improving
3-14 day forecasts over the US.

Collaborative efforts are especially critical for achieving NOAA's
THORPEX goal; the improvement of weather forecasts over the US on the
longer, 3-14 day time scales. The quality of such forecasts is affected
by atmospheric, oceanic, and other types of observations (or the lack of
them) over vast areas of the northern hemisphere, the tropics, and
eventually the entire globe. Without intense international
collaboration, the collection, assimilation, and further processing of
critical new in-situ and remotely sensed data could not take place,
impeding progress in NWP. In addition, NOAA is also expected to benefit
from THORPEX collaboration by adapting forecast applications developed
by other agencies and nations in the 1-3 day lead-time range.

*As a Contributor*. NOAA will contribute to the success of THORPEX
primarily by advancing the general THORPEX science goals through its
efforts in the 3-14 day forecast service application area. Scientific
advances and new techniques in the four sub-areas of forecasting
developed by or with the financial support of NOAA will be shared and
actively distributed among other THORPEX participants and the broader
weather forecast provider and user community both on the national and
international level.

# SCIENCE PLAN

The NOAA THORPEX Science Plan is centered on a number of basic science
questions and hypotheses related to the four major components of weather
forecasting. These questions are explored in a series of interrelated
research and development tasks, including some especially critical tasks
that cut across the traditional boundaries of the different components
of the forecast process. A number of particular activities and methods
to be developed by THORPEX are also discussed. Individual or group
research initiatives funded through this Long-term NOAA THROPEX Research
Program are expected to address different aspects of this Science Plan.
The NOAA THORPEX Science Plan is consistent with the International
THORPEX Science Plan (THORPEX 2001, 2002) where different aspects of the
program are discussed in more detail.

## 3.1 MAJOR THEMES

The new approach to NWP-based weather forecasting proposed by THORPEX is
based on three major themes: ![](media/image4.wmf)

1\) NWP forecasting must be considered as an end-to-end, *integrated*
process. The four main components of NWP have to be considered as
sub-systems of the forecast process that must be developed in concert.
Accordingly, the old, one-way links between the various NWP components
(Fig. 2) must be replaced by two-way interactions, facilitating the
feedback of requirement-related information for the different components
of the NWP process (see red arrows in Fig. 4).

As an example, let us consider the *uncertainty* contained in the output
of an NWP sub-system that is passed to the next level for use as input.
Such information can be critical for optimal forecast performance. For
example, to ensure their optimal use in data assimilation algorithms,
observations must be accompanied by estimates of random and systematic
errors. Similarly, atmospheric analyses are not complete without an
estimate of their error covariance matrix, for use in ensemble
forecasting. Also, for enhanced utility, weather forecasts must be
associated with their own case dependent error estimates, the most
complete form of which is a set of probabilistic forecasts.
![](media/image5.wmf)

*Fig. 5: Probabilistic verification scores (Brier Skill Score for
extreme Northern Hemisphere extratropical 500 hPa geopotential height
categories, averaged for March-May 1997) based on (a) a single control
forecast with constant probability values (dashed blue, corresponding to
yes and no forecasts), (b) the ensemble mode forecast (dotted purple,
still only 2 probability values used but they vary based on the ensemble
distribution), and (c) a detailed ensemble-based probability density
distribution (solid red, with multiple probability values). Note that an
8-day detailed probability forecast has as much value as a bi-variate
probability forecast at 6-day lead-time.*

It is well known that uncertainty in weather forecasts can be critical
in many real life applications (see Fig. 5, and, e. g., Zhu et al. 2002;
Toth et al. 2002, and references therein). Lack of proper feedback
between the different components of the NWP process means that
information on the uncertainty in many of the intermediate (and also
final) products has not been widely used in NWP forecasting. The THORPEX
program will foster interdisciplinary research to explore and design the
complex set of connections and feedback mechanisms among the different
sub-systems in the NWP process. By identifying, then exploiting the
sometimes hidden connections between the different components (like the
need for communicating information on uncertainty), the functionality of
the entire NWP process can be enhanced. The rigid, single-threaded
input-output arrangement that characterizes current operations (see Fig.
2) can then be replaced by a web of two-way interacting links that
connect the different components of the NWP process.

The first theme of the new NWP paradigm, the two-way interacting
connections within an end-to-end NWP process, requires a careful,
analytic study of the forecast process itself. The second theme of the
new paradigm is based on a more detailed and thorough study of the
natural processes that we try to predict in the atmosphere and its
surrounding spheres:

2)  The new, integrated NWP process is *adaptive* in nature. As our
    understanding of the natural processes matures, the procedures used
    in the different sub-systems of the NWP process can become more
    refined and differentiated. While under the traditional paradigm the
    same procedures are typically used irrespective of the situation,
    forecast techniques will be conditioned according to the state of
    the natural system, reflecting detailed and specific information on
    the flow.

    Under the new NWP paradigm, for example, observations are collected
    in such a way that the gaps that would occur at various places,
    depending on the flow configuration under a climatologically fixed
    observing network, would be filled in a flexible manner by the use
    of adaptive observing platforms. When the observational and
    short-range forecast information is merged in data assimilation, the
    error in the forecast component is estimated in a flow dependent,
    adaptive manner, potentially reducing overall analysis errors. NWP
    modeling and ensemble schemes can also be improved by allowing them
    to adaptively shift resources or change procedures as the forecast
    situation dictates. As for the last NWP sub-system, the availability
    of probabilistic forecast information will allow the users, for the
    first time, to fully adapt their application procedures to the
    expected weather situation.

    Finally, according to the third major theme of the new NWP paradigm:

3)  The new NWP process, to be developed and introduced by THORPEX,
    should be *dynamically controllable to satisfy a set of user
    requirements*. User control of the forecast process becomes feasible
    when the first two themes of the new NWP paradigm are combined. The
    integration of the forecast process (first theme) is envisioned here
    not in a climatologically optimized, or somewhat rigid form, but
    rather in an adaptive fashion where all the elements of the forecast
    process are determined with respect to by the evolving atmospheric
    flow (second theme), and are driven by and responsive to the
    continually changing needs and requirements of the end users (third
    theme).

    Development of the third theme of the new NWP paradigm will allow
    the users to interact with the data collection, data assimilation,
    and forecasting components of the NWP process, in accordance with
    the natural dynamical processes. (User interests here refer to the
    collective needs of the user community. How to articulate such
    interests is one subject of the Applications sub-program, discussed
    below.) Depending on user priorities and needs, special observations
    can be collected or specific forecast procedures can be invoked to
    improve certain aspects of weather forecasts. Along with the
    adaptive procedures outlined above, such a direct user feedback onto
    the forecast process is one of the central elements of the new,
    dynamically controlled, adaptive, and integrated approach to NWP
    forecasting.

    The user control of the forecast process is achieved through an
    understanding of the natural processes that are being forecast on
    one hand, and of the integrated forecast process on the other.
    Consequently, most user control mechanisms will exploit the
    dynamical NWP modeling and ensemble forecasting tools that can
    connect the users with the other, observational and data
    assimilation sub-systems of the interactive forecast process. Note
    that the same modeling and ensemble tools also provide the best
    representation of the dynamics of the atmosphere and the surrounding
    spheres.

    In recent years, some elements of the new NWP process have already
    been developed. A good example of recent efforts aimed at the
    integration of the different NWS sub-systems is the
    multidisciplinary research used in the Department of Commece
    (DOC)/DOD/NASA joint National Polar-orbiting Operational
    Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS, 2002), under the direction
    of the Integrated Program Office (IPO). When developing the next
    generation polar orbiting satellite system, NWP and other user
    requirements (not just the traditional instrument and platform
    constraints) are also considered as an integral part of the planning
    process.

    Examples of adaptive NWP forecast elements include the event-driven
    use of forecast procedures at the NWS, including the operational use
    of a hurricane forecast NWP model (Kurihara 1998). A recently
    introduced operational program, the Winter Storm Reconnaissance
    (WSR, Toth et al. 2002) program, serves as a good example for the
    use of the concept of dynamical control in the NWP process. This
    program was developed based on research carried out in the former
    FASTEX (Joly et al. 1999) and NORPEX (Langland et al. 1999) research
    programs, and is guided by the feedback users - in this case,
    synoptic forecasters - provide to the NWP forecast process. During
    WSR programs, operational NWS forecasters request the collection of
    extra observations to reduce forecast errors for selected high
    impact winter storms. Dropsonde observations are then taken based on
    dynamical considerations, in areas deemed optimal for improving the
    selected aspect of the weather forecast. Verification results
    indicate that the skill of 36-96 hour targeted forecasts is as high
    as 12-hour shorter, 24-84 hour forecasts without the benefit of the
    targeted observations (see Fig. 6).

    Based on these early trials, THORPEX will strive to make
    interactive, adaptive, and dynamically controlled procedures the
    norm (and not the exception) in the NWP process. Based on a more
    thorough and detailed understanding of natural processes, and an
    in-depth analysis of observing, data assimilation, forecasting, and
    application procedures, the forecast process will be formulated to
    adapt to the changing natural environment on one hand, and to the
    varying user requirements on the other. This will bring NWP
    forecasting to a level never reached before, significantly improving
    existing, and opening the possibility for the introduction of many
    new societal and economic applications. ![](media/image6.wmf)

## 3.2 OPEN SCIENCE QUESTIONS

One is confronted by a number of basic scientific questions along the
road to the development of the proposed new paradigm describing an
integrated, adaptive, and dynamically controlled NWP process. THORPEX
research must address these questions before NOAA's THORPEX related
service goal, accelerating forecast improvements in the 3-14 day
lead-time range, can be achieved and the full potential of weather
forecasting realized.

OBSERVING SYSTEM

1)  On the most basic level, one would like to know what combinations of
    observable atmospheric variables, at what temporal and spatial
    resolution, and with what observational error level, can lead to
    high quality NWP analysis fields. Also, will the quality of analysis
    fields improve more with an increase in the number of observed
    variables, with an improvement in observation quality, or with
    higher spatial or temporal resolution for observations?

    These questions, as the other observation-related science questions
    that follow, can be answered only in the context of the full NWP
    forecast process, and so will require collaboration with data
    assimilation and forecast applications. Given some theoretical
    understanding of how to enhance forecast quality with changes in the
    number of observed variables, their error level and spatio-temporal
    resolution, the following question arises:

2)  What is the optimal (most cost-effective) mix of existing or planned
    remote (ground-, aircraft-, or satellite-based) and in-situ
    platforms and instruments that can provide the most cost-effective
    approach in obtaining the requisite combination of observations in
    the framework of the global observing system?

    This question, of course, should be addressed in the context of our
    new, integrated NWP paradigm, which leads to the following, even
    more practical question:

3)  What modifications/developments in observing platforms, instruments,
    and techniques can make the observing system more flexible and
    adaptive, responding to the needs of a dynamically interactive NWP
    forecast process?

    Finally, the expected abundance of remotely sensed data and recent
    advances in on-board and receiving station data processing speed and
    quality point to another question:

4)  For increased efficiency, what part(s) of the data selection,
    super-obing, retrieving, or other types of data analysis procedures,
    if any, should be carried out prior to and independent of the next
    step in the forecast process, NWP-based data assimilation?

    One may argue that from a scientific point of view, these tasks
    should be considered as part of the data assimilation procedure and
    carried out within, not outside, that framework. It is not clear,
    however, how much information is lost by performing some tasks prior
    to the NWP data assimilation procedure that, for example, can result
    in a dramatic reduction in data volume. The reduced data load may
    free up resources within the data assimilation procedure that can
    possibly be used more efficiently to improve other aspects of data
    assimilation. It is obvious that answering this last question
    requires the most intimate working relationship between observing
    system and data assimilation experts, thus providing a prime example
    for the interdisciplinary research promoted by THORPEX.

    DATA ASSIMILATION

    As pointed out above, from an NWP perspective observing systems and
    data assimilation procedures cannot be discussed independently. In
    fact, the first scientific question raised in the context of data
    assimilation procedures is closely related to the last question
    raised under observing systems:

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1)  What existing or new procedures can be used to ensure that
    information from the large amounts of remotely sensed, primarily
    space-based observations are optimally used in data assimilation?

    Given the projected increase in data volume, the proper handling of
    this issue is of paramount interest. The second critical element in
    the integrated NWP process, from a data assimilation perspective,
    pertains to observing network design:

2)  Given the technological and financial constraints, how can the
    global observing network be optimally configured? What is the ideal
    arrangement(s) of the routine (fixed) network? How large a role
    should adaptive observations play in the global observing network?
    Can adaptive observing techniques contribute to climate monitoring
    efforts? And what are the best adaptive observing techniques?

    These questions are again closely linked with the issues listed
    under the Observing system sub-area. In particular, they represent
    the other, data assimilation side of the issues raised under
    questions 2 and 3 in the Observing system section. The last major
    data assimilation related issue is, relatively speaking, the most
    self-contained since it pertains to improved analysis procedures:

3)  What are the best ways to enhance the data assimilation procedures?
    Is it more important to better describe the initial-value, or the
    model related errors in the assimilation schemes? Data assimilation
    procedures are the most relevant for systems that are
    under-observed. Given the expected robust increase in both the
    quality and quantity of remotely sensed data, what will be the
    future significance of enhancements in data assimilation schemes for
    the atmosphere?

    FORECAST PROCEDURES

    In the NWP process the collection and assimilation of data serve the
    ultimate goal of projecting the current state of the atmosphere into
    the future. NWP models, using an approximate numerical
    representation of the relevant dynamical and physical processes, are
    the major if not sole provider of information on which weather
    forecasts out to 14 days are based. It is well understood that due
    to its chaotic nature, the atmosphere has limited predictability.
    The limited skill of weather forecasts is an everyday reminder of
    this fact. Several critical aspects of limited atmospheric
    predictability, however, is not well understood. In particular:

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1)  What is the critical limiting factor in NWP weather forecasting: the
    lack of adequate observational coverage, inadequate data
    assimilation techniques, or the use of imperfect models? Are
    non-modal processes important in forecast error growth? Depending on
    the nature, spatial scale, and location of the phenomena considered,
    how can weather forecasts be most easily improved: through
    collecting more/better observations, assimilating the existing data
    better, or developing and using more accurate models?

    These are fundamental questions in weather forecasting that can be
    answered only through close collaboration with scientists working in
    the observing system and data assimilation areas of NWP. The answers
    to these questions may have important implications regarding the
    distribution of research and operational resources between the
    observing, data assimilation, and forecast areas of the NWP process.
    While limitations in the quality of weather forecasts due to
    observations and data assimilation are handled in those parts of the
    NWP process, forecast errors due to the forecast procedures
    themselves are the prime target of the forecast component of the
    THORPEX NWP research:

2)  What are the sources of model-related errors in NWP forecasting?
    How, where, and in connection with what phenomena do the errors
    manifest themselves? What techniques can be used to reduce these
    errors?

    Currently relatively little is known about model-related errors. To
    a large extent, this is due to the difficulty in identifying and
    separating model errors from initial value related errors. In
    chaotic systems, errors due to these two sources are necessarily
    intertwined and difficult to separate (see, e. g., Vannitsem and
    Toth 2002; Palmer 2001; Toth and Vannitsem 2002). In the NWP process
    the situation in the data assimilation procedure gets even more
    complicated by the use of short-range forecasts, which are generated
    by the same imperfect model as that used for other forecast
    applications. The use of the same NWP model in data assimilation
    explains why there is also a strong interest on the part of the data
    assimilation community in learning more about model-related errors.
    More, better organized, and more systematic information about model
    errors will obviously contribute to the development of new modeling
    techniques for the *reduction* of such errors. However, model
    errors, just like initial errors, are *unavoidable*. Therefore,
    based on some basic knowledge about the nature of model errors, one
    must go further and ask some more practical, yet critical questions:

3)  Can variations in model related forecast errors be captured in
    ensemble forecasting? Can the forecast model be enhanced in such a
    manner that when run in an ensemble mode, it could account for model
    related uncertainty?

    Such an *inclusion* of uncertainty in weather forecasting may first
    sound counterproductive, especially to modelers who aim above all at
    high accuracy. Research in ensemble forecasting, however, has
    demonstrated that the inclusion of uncertainty related to the
    initial value can enhance the potential economic value of weather
    forecasts (see, e. g., Richardson 2000; Zhu et al. 2002). The proper
    inclusion of model-related uncertainty in ensembles could,
    therefore, be a major untapped forecast resource waiting to be
    realized by THORPEX research, potentially leading to enhanced
    probabilistic forecast information.

    The extent that a priori, ensemble-based knowledge about flow
    dependent model errors can enhance the economic value of weather
    forecasts is one of the unknowns that can be explored only through
    close collaboration with scientists working in the societal and
    economic applications area of NWP forecasting.

    SOCIETAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS

    Forecast applications represent a link between information on future
    weather and the users of this information. This last step in the
    integrated NWP forecast process is often neglected, or treated
    independently from the rest of the process. To the extent that the
    quality of weather forecasts can be measured and to a certain level,
    also improved without respect to its use by society, such a
    treatment may be justified. But there are some unique benefits,
    attainable only by considering the generation and the application
    sides of the NWP process together:

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1)  How can the utility of weather forecasts be enhanced beyond that
    attainable by improvements measurable in terms of quantitative NWP
    forecast skill? What meteorological information is needed, and how
    this information can optimally be post-processed and used for
    maximizing the utility of weather forecasts?

    Though these basic questions can be raised only by considering both
    the generation and application sides of NWP, they can be addressed
    without much consideration of the new paradigm of an integrated NWP
    process. To realize the full potential of NWP, however, one has to
    develop critical links between applications and the other NWP
    forecast components.

    Under the new NWP paradigm, users are no longer just passive
    receivers of information on future weather. Considering the
    socio-economical implications of the forecasts, they can request
    that certain aspects of the forecasts be adaptively enhanced,
    depending on the associated costs. Such enhancements can be
    attempted through the introduction of special data collection, data
    assimilation, or forecast procedures, aimed at benefiting a specific
    forecast application while making a neutral or slightly positive
    overall impact on general forecast quality. Related questions that
    arise are:

2)  What procedures need to be developed so that users can efficiently
    interact with and enhance the integrated NWP forecast process? What
    arrangements can guarantee that users have equitable access to
    available forecast resources? What is the most cost-effective way of
    improving selected aspects of weather forecasts: by taking extra,
    adaptively placed observations or by introducing special data
    assimilation and/or forecast procedures, such as the generation of
    higher resolution or more ensemble forecast members? How can the
    economic and societal benefits be quantified?

    Given that these questions cut across several disciplines in the
    natural and societal sciences, answering these questions is a rather
    complex task, even for individual users or a group of users. To
    generalize information developed on individual users' costs and
    benefits is an even more challenging task:

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3)  What new informational, scientific or other techniques are needed to
    estimate the overall societal costs and benefits associated with the
    introduction of different versions of the new, integrated, adaptive,
    and dynamically controlled NWP forecast process proposed by THORPEX?

    If such techniques can be developed then THORPEX will be in a
    position to answer the penultimate question:

4)  Given the overall costs and benefits associated with the different
    versions of the new, integrated NWP process, which, if any, of the
    proposed new observational, data assimilation, forecast, and
    application procedures are (most) cost effective for global NWP
    forecast applications in the 3-14 day lead time range?

    The proposed new NWP process, as pointed out earlier, is not a
    linear sequence of activities but rather an interactive loop.
    Answering the last question will close this loop from a development
    perspective. The answer will determine whether the proposed new
    methods are cost effective, and if so, which version of them should
    be operationally implemented.

## 3.3 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT TASKS

## 

Note that it may not be possible to find definitive answers to some of
the open scientific questions; and some of the answers may depend on
current methods and techniques. Focusing on and continually revisiting
these science questions, however, is expected to significantly enhance
the knowledge base of NWP forecasting. To address the scientific
questions (SQ) raised above, a wide range of studies needs to be
completed in each NWP sub-program. These studies form a series of
research activities, often interconnected with those undertaken in other
sub-programs, with the aim of developing and constructing the methods
and techniques that constitute the critical new elements of the
integrated, adaptive, and user controlled NWP process.

While the activities aimed at the development of the various methods and
components of the new NWP process are listed below, under the four
separate sub-areas of NWP, it is important to note that each of them
will have to be carried out in the context of the integrated NWP
process, possibly in collaboration with other sub-programs. To foster
such collaboration and to ensure that the different newly developed
components can be naturally integrated, the research efforts in the
sub-areas of the new NWP process will be complemented by a series of
cross-cutting activities. When particular research efforts are focused
in time, the most active time frame is indicated in terms of short (1-4
years, ST), medium (5-7 years, MT), or long term (8-11 years, LT)
periods. When such a period is not specified the activity is expected to
be carried out on a continual basis throughout the life of the program.

OBSERVING SYSTEM

1)  Develop new in-situ and remote sensing instruments and platforms
    that can best complement or fill any gaps in the current observing
    system, regarding NOAA's THORPEX goal of improved 3-14 day forecasts
    over the US. Evaluate new elements in the field in THORPEX Observing
    System Tests (TOST) (SQ #2, ST-MT)

2)  Develop intelligent sensor arrays (Steiner et al. 2003), observing
    techniques, and instrument platforms to be used in a dynamically
    controlled, adaptive fashion. Evaluate new elements in the field
    during THORPEX Observing System Tests (TOST) (SQ #3, ST-MT)

3)  Improve techniques for processing extensive sets of remotely sensed
    data (SQ #4).

> \(a\) Refine existing methods, and develop new methods for:

(i) Combining remotely sensed and in-situ observations (calibration);

(ii) Deriving meteorologically relevant but directly not observed
     quantities;

(iii) Collapsing the vast amounts of observations, with minimal
      information loss, to a more manageable size (thinning or
      "super-obing");

> *Joint research with Data Assimilation sub-program:*
>
> *(b) Evaluate which of the above procedures are best applied prior to
> (on observing platforms or at ground data processing centers), or
> within the NWP data assimilation process, considering the final
> quality of NWP analysis products and also data transmission,
> processing, and other costs.*

(c) Estimate (both correlated and uncorrelated) errors in raw
    observations and derived products

> *Joint research with JCSDA:*
>
> *(d) Prepare in advance for planned new satellite-based observations
> before launch for readiness upon acquisition. Evaluate new
> strategies(see points a-c above) in the field during THORPEX Observing
> System Tests (TOST).*

4)  Upgrade current meteorological data communication technologies.
    Develop and maintain a joint observations/forecast database that can
    serve the various needs of the THORPEX research community (Core
    activity, to facilitate efficient research and subsequent
    operational implementation)

    DATA ASSIMILATION

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1)  Improve techniques for the use of new and existing types of
    observations in NWP data assimilation techniques (SQ #1).

    a.  Refine existing, and develop new techniques for the use of large
        amounts of remotely sensed data, including

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(i) Forward models;

(ii) Sophisticated algorithms for the retrieval of state variables at
     high resolution;

(iii) Thinning, "super-obing", or merging of data;

(iv) Approximate treatment of data (such as fast radiative transfer
     codes or retrievals);

(v) Treatment of observations with correlated error.

Joint research with Observing System sub-program:

a.  *Considering data transmission, processing, and other costs,*

    i.  *Evaluate which of the above procedures are best applied prior
        to (on observing platforms or at ground data processing
        centers), or within the NWP data assimilation process.*

    ii. *Compare the value in assimilating state variables at high
        resolution vs. traditional bulk radiances.*

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c)  *Foster related research activities with appropriate research
    facilities such as the Cooperative Institute in Meteorological
    Satellite Studies (CIMSS), Cooperative Institute for Research in the
    Atmosphere (CIRA), etc.*

d)  Assess errors in observations (instruments), representativeness, and
    forward modeling. Characterize the spatial and temporal correlations
    and flow dependence of such errors.

e)  Develop techniques for the use of observational and other types of
    error information (e. g., flow dependent background error
    covariances) in advanced quality control and data assimilation
    procedures.

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2)  Develop and test sophisticated data assimilation schemes capable of
    using flow dependent error covariance information (SQ #3).

    a.  Develop improved and computationally efficient 4DVAR data
        assimilation methods that are capable of a continual update of
        forecast error covariance information.

    b.  Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of various ensemble based
        data assimilation schemes. Develop fast, parallel computational
        algorithms for the update step of ensemble-based data
        assimilation schemes.

    c.  Compare the performance of 4DVAR and ensemble-based data
        assimilation algorithms and explore whether their combination
        may bring further improvements.

*Joint work with Forecasting sub-program:*

> *d) Refine techniques for generating initial conditions for ensemble
> forecasts to best account for errors in the initial value-related
> uncertainty.*
>
> e\) Explore the effects of data assimilation applications in the
> presence of model error, and develop new assimilation methods
> applicable in such an environment.

3)  Investigate adaptive observing strategies (SQ #2).

    a.  Explore the use of fast analysis procedures in the local use of
        high density adaptive observations;

    b.  Develop adaptive observation techniques applicable:

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i)  In areas other than mid-latitude cyclones (e. g., hurricane
    forecasting);

> ii\) In the presence of strong non-linearities affecting, for example,
> synoptic scale motions in the medium range, or physical processes
> (moist convection, turbulence) in the short range;
>
> iii\) In the presence of model errors

a.  Assess the effectiveness of various adaptive observing techniques in
    predicting the impact of (supplementary) observations on the quality
    of analysis and forecast products;

b.  Assist the broader research community in assessing the impact of the
    use of adaptive observations on now-casting, climate monitoring, and
    other non-NWP activities.

    FORECAST PROCEDURES

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1)  Evaluate the relevance of transient, non-modal processes in the
    growth of forecast errors (SQ #1, ST-MT).

*Joint work with Data Assimilation sub-program:*

> *Refine ensemble perturbation techniques to best account for errors in
> initial value related uncertainty.*

2)  Develop and refine methods for separating model-related forecast
    error from initial value related errors. Analyze to what extent
    model errors exhibit stochastic or systematic behavior. On different
    spatial and temporal time scales, identify what atmospheric
    features/phenomena are affected most by model-related errors or
    drift (SQ #2, ST-MT);

3)  Assess what critical model features/processes are responsible for
    generating model-related errors (SQ #3);

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a)  Identify what model components are responsible for the NWP models'
    inability to faithfully represent atmospheric processes and
    variability (e. g., Rossby wave propagation, Pacific North Atlantic
    Oscillation, Intraseasonal Oscillation) critical to weather
    forecasting applications;

b)  Improve the formulation of NWP models, including techniques used to
    couple different model domains and components, to reduce model
    related errors;

c)  Develop techniques to explicitly account for model-related forecast
    uncertainty in ensemble forecasting;

d)  Assess the applicability of adaptive procedures in NWP modeling and
    ensemble techniques.

    SOCIETAL AND ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS

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1)  Given the interdisciplinary and relatively less developed nature of
    the application component of NWP forecasting, convene a workshop to
    discuss methods for assessing the costs and benefits associated with
    NWP forecast procedures (SQ#2,3, ST, core activity to foster
    societal applications-oriented NWP research in general.)

2)  Refine existing methods, and develop new and more efficient methods
    for the use of NWP forecasts (SQ #1, ST-MT).

    a.  Improve statistical forecast post-processing techniques to
        reduce systematic forecast errors;

    b.  Explore what new meteorological information could potentially
        enhance forecast utility;

    c.  Develop methods for the application of new, probabilistic
        forecast information by intermediate (human forecasters) and end
        users.

3)  Develop methods for the evaluation of costs associated with
    different aspects of the NWP forecast system, including those shared
    by various users (e. g., satellite observations) (SQ #3, ST-MT).

*Joint research with the other sub-programs:*

Assess the costs associated with the potential introduction of the new
observing, data assimilation, and forecast procedures proposed by
THORPEX.

4)  Adapt existing, and develop new techniques for estimating the
    societal/economic benefits of improved NWP forecasts for individual
    users, sectors of the economy, and the society as a whole (SQ #3,
    ST-MT). Based on the results, assess the feasibility of developing
    new NWP verification measures that may better reflect the societal
    value of forecasts.

5)  Study the societal aspects of adaptive NWP procedures, such as
    targeted observations and data assimilation and forecast
    applications tailored to specific applications (SQ #2, MT-LT).
    Develop guidelines and procedures that ensure the equitable use of
    NWP resources.

    CROSS-CUTTING TASKS

    The new methods developed above are merely building blocks for, not
    the end product of the new NWP paradigm. The newly developed methods
    need to be integrated and tested in the end-to-end forecast process,
    requiring the collaborative work of all four sub-programs. The
    following synergistic activities are required for the full
    development, testing, and subsequent operational implementation of
    the new NWP forecast process.

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1)  Evaluate the data needs of the NWP forecast process for the 3-14 day
    lead time range using, for example, idealized Observing System
    Simulation Experiments (OSSEs, see, e. g., Atlas 1997) (Observing
    System SQ #1, ST). Study the trade-off between observing more
    variables, vs. at higher spatial or temporal resolution, vs. with
    lower observational error for forecast applications on different
    time and spatial scales.

    These idealized and platform neutral experiments aim at establishing
    the basic data needs of NWP forecasting. After learning what
    variables, and at what resolution are the most important for NWP
    forecasting, THORPEX can look into the next question: how can these
    observations be collected?

2)  In the framework of OSSE experiments, evaluate the value of existing
    and proposed new in-situ and remote components of the observing
    system in providing the observational information required for 3-14
    day NWP applications (Observing System SQ #2, ST-MT). Propose
    observing system configurations that can satisfy the ideal needs of
    NWP forecasting at a minimum cost. Assess the value of adaptive
    observing techniques in achieving these goals (Data Assimilation SQ
    #2).

    Once the basic elements of the observing system are optimized, its
    contribution relative to the other components of the NWP process can
    also be quantified:

3)  In the framework of OSSE experiments, evaluate the relative value of
    improvements in the observing system, data assimilation procedures,
    vs. numerical modeling and ensemble techniques, with the goal of
    optimizing the use of overall resources for the 3-14 day lead time
    range (Forecasting Procedures SQ #1, MT).

    The identification of the most critical limiting factors in NWP
    forecasting will allow for a rational allocation of NWP resources
    for both research and operational implementation purposes:

4)  Based on the methods and techniques developed in the research
    activities of the four sub-programs (see previous subsections), and
    on the results of the cross-cutting activities discussed above,
    develop a small number of configurations for the new, interactive
    NWP forecast system. In a realistic forecast environment, test one
    or two of the integrated global NWP system candidates that performed
    best in OSSE experiments. If necessary, carry out a major field
    program to demonstrate the feasibility and value of the new
    observing, data assimilation, forecasting, and application
    procedures in the 3-14 day lead time range (Societal and Economic
    Applications SQ #4, MT-LT).

The related NOAA research activities will culminate with a
recommendation for the configuration of the most cost effective, new,
integrated, adaptive NWP process, to be introduced operationally at the
end of the THORPEX program.

# IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

## 4.1 PROGRAM ORGANIZATION

### *4.1.1 PROGRAM ADMINISTRATION*

The overall direction of NOAA's THORPEX program is set by the NOAA
THORPEX Executive Oversight Committee (NTEOC), which also makes all
related budgetary decisions. The NTEOC is co-chaired by the Director of
the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Office of Weather
and Air Quality (OWAQ) and the Director of NCEP, and also includes the
Directors of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information
Service (NESDIS) Office of Research and Applications (ORA), and the NWS
Office of Science and Technology (OST).

The wide-ranging activities discussed in Sections 3 and 4 are
coordinated on a daily basis by the Leader of NOAA's THORPEX Research
Program, who is appointed by and reports to the NTEOC. He/she is
assisted by the NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Team (NTSIT),
that he/she forms from NOAA and extramural scientists specializing in
the four major components of the forecast process. This team, with input
from interested NOAA line offices and the wider community, is
responsible for developing and continuously updating the NOAA THORPEX
Research Program Plan, including its Science and Implementation
components, as well as overseeing the execution of the program. This
includes administration of NOAA's THORPEX research grant program,
establishment of the necessary infrastructure (core activities),
coordination of supporting research and development work within NOAA,
and collaboration with extramural THORPEX (and other research) program
activities on the national and international level. Several members of
the NTSIT, including its leader, are expected to serve on the NASSC and
the ISSC to ensure that the activities carried out at the different
levels of the THORPEX program are well coordinated.

### *4.1.2 EXTRAMURAL RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM*

More than half of all NOAA THORPEX funding will be used to support
research initiatives developed and carried out by extramural scientists
in response to NOAA THORPEX Announcements of Opportunities (AO).
Research proposals will first be peer reviewed through mail, then
prioritized by a panel including NTSIT members, according to their
ability to contribute to NOAA's THORPEX science and service related
goals. Proposals for research that cuts across the traditional
boundaries between the different components of NWP, and proposals
submitted jointly by experts from different sub-areas will be especially
encouraged.

Research proposals will be evaluated based on the following three
(weighted) criteria:

1)  **Scientific merit**, including both the potential to advance a
    given topic and to fit with related activities within THORPEX (40%);

2)  **Relevance to the NOAA THORPEX science and service goals**. Ability
    to demonstrate how the research results will lead to improved
    forecast skill or will support other activities achieving that goal.
    A credible path to operational implementation is considered an
    important part of each research proposal (40%);

3)  **Preparedness of the investigators** (scientific background and
    productivity) and the availability of adequate facilities to carry
    out the research, including potential partnership with operational
    centers, other research groups, or the user community if necessary,
    and educational potential (20%).

To increase efficiency and decrease costs, funding for field experiments
will be considered only if the applicants carefully explore other uses
of the data to be collected, and seek partial funding from sources
outside the NOAA THORPEX program; or it is clearly demonstrated that the
need for the data is unique and essential to achieving NOAA's THORPEX
goals.

### *4.1.3 INTRAMURAL RESEARCH PROGRAMS*

NOAA's THORPEX program builds on a rich web of scientific and
development activities that have been carried out at different NOAA line
offices. The offices with considerable expertise and interest in the
four sub-areas of THORPEX research include:

1.  The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for
    Environmental Prediction (NCEP), where the operational NWP data
    assimilation and forecasting procedures are being developed,
    prepared, and maintained for operational use;

2.  The Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC), where research projects in the
    areas of NWP data assimilation, forecasting, and application are
    carried out;

3.  The Environmental Research Laboratory (ERL), where new observing
    system applications are being developed;

4.  The Forecast System Laboratory (FSL), where new forecast systems are
    developed;

5.  The Office of Global Programs (OGP), where among many other
    activities, societal applications of environmental forecasts are
    considered on an international basis.

These in-house activities within NOAA should be coordinated with the
THORPEX program. An incremental enhancement of some of these programs
will allow the NOAA Labs to act as portals for extramural research
initiatives wishing to connect with NOAA research and operational
activities. Examples include the development of specialized real time or
near real time products, such as forecasts, forecast sensitivity, or
data impact fields used in the execution and evaluation of field
experiments, and standard verification software to be used in conducting
and evaluating NWP forecast research experiments (OSSE). Such
arrangements can significantly enhance the success of the THORPEX
program.

As the extramural research proposals, all internal funding initiatives
will be peer-reviewed and if funded, their progress re-evaluated on a
regular basis. In the review process, the same criteria will be used as
described in Section 4.1.3 for the extramural grant program except the
relative weights for the criteria will change (1 -- 20%, 2- 30%, 3 --
20%), and they will be supplemented by a new criterion:

4\) **Ability to promote collaboration.** The potential of the proposed
work to conduce new extramural research efforts, to foster collaboration
between NOAA and extramural research efforts, and to facilitate
interactions between research and operational activities.

### *4.1.4 INFRASTRUCTURE / CORE ACTIVITIES*

Many of the THORPEX research and development activities envisaged by
NOAA or other agencies will require or greatly benefit from some core
activities. The NOAA THORPEX Program intends to contribute funding to
the following critical organizational and infrastructural activities,
for the benefit of NOAA's and the wider community's THORPEX related
efforts (emphasis in time, when significant, indicated in parentheses):

1)  Continual upgrades of the communication capabilities to allow the
    exchange of large amounts of data. Neither the research nor the
    operational work envisaged by THORPEX will succeed without the
    ability to move large amounts of observational and NWP modeling data
    from their sources to the research and operational users, including
    stops at centers for intermediate processing.

2)  Establishment of a THORPEX database, containing all observational
    and forecast data of possible value to the general THORPEX research
    community (ST). Without such a facility THORPEX efforts would
    necessarily be fragmented and sub-optimal.

3)  Establishment (ST), and maintenance (MT-LT) of an operational
    test-bed facility to provide institutional support for closer
    interaction between research and operational activities. Academic
    researchers should have access to a formal procedure to test their
    methods in a fully operational environment. The lack of such
    facilities has been noted in several prior reports (see, e. g.,
    National Research Council, NRC 2000; Science and Technology Infusion
    Plan, STIP 2003) as a major impediment to advances in NWP science
    and technology. Therefore, the establishment of an Operational NWP
    Test Facility (ONTF), preferably co-located with the operational
    NOAA NWP center (NCEP), is a critical requirement. Such a center can
    act as a melting pot for the new ideas and procedures developed in
    the course of THORPEX and other research programs. Also, an NWP
    test-bed can be an ideal venue for carrying out the bulk of the
    cross-cutting THORPEX activities.

4)  Real-time testing and demonstration of THORPEX forecast procedures.
    After they have been thoroughly tested in OSSE and other appropriate
    experiments, new observing, data assimilation, forecasting, and
    application procedures will undergo comprehensive, real-life tests.
    In the development phase of the program, these tests will be carried
    out as part of various TOST experiments. In the last phase of the
    THORPEX program, it may be desirable to carry out a major
    demonstration of the integrated forecast process that THORPEX
    considers cost-effective and ready for implementation. Ideally, such
    a demonstration project can take place as part of the transition of
    the scientific results from a research into an operational
    environment, on an international basis near the end of the THORPEX
    program.

5)  Organization of workshops and other meetings (ST). The exchange of
    ideas among the various research groups will be facilitated through
    workshops and other means. Such activities proved to be a catalyst
    in earlier research programs (e. g., FASTEX, see Joly et al. 1999;
    and NORPEX, see Langland et al. 1999). This will be especially
    important for new and cross-cutting activities, and during the early
    stages of the program.

### *4.1.5 COORDINATION WITH OTHER PROGRAMS / ORGANIZATIONS*

*Collaboration within the THORPEX program*. NOAA's THORPEX Research
Program will be fully coordinated with that of other agencies at the
USWRP, North American, and international level. Since THORPEX results
will be shared among all interested parties, science advances at any of
the participating agencies will be incorporated into efforts of other
agencies, including NOAA. NOAA's main focus in THORPEX service
applications is on the 3-14 day precipitation and daily weather
forecasts. NOAA will offer its own achievements in this area to other
participants, and will take full advantage of different service
applications developed by other participating agencies and nations.

*Collaboration with other programs -- Contributions.* THORPEX will act
as a catalyst for NWP forecast related activities with respect to a
number of other atmospheric science programs organized under the USWRP
(2002) or elsewhere (e. g., International H2O Project, IHOP; Pacific
Landfall Jets Experiment, PACJET, Cold Season Precipitation Program,
CSPP, etc, see Table 1). THORPEX will bring a wealth of NWP-related
information and expertise that will enrich the other programs for the
benefit of the user community.

  -------------- -------------- ------------------- ------------------ -----------------
  PROGRAM/       TIME PERIOD    NATURE OF           BENEFITS           CONTRIBUTIONS
  ORGANIZATION                  INTERACTION                            

  CEOP/GAPP      2001-2004      Water and energy    Observations,      NWP procedures
                                cycles              climate modeling   

  CLIVAR         Continual      Climate variability Observations,      NWP procedures
                                                    climate modeling   

  CSID/OGP       Continual      Societal impact     Methods, studies   Weather-climate
                                                                       connections

  CPU PROVIDERS  Continual      Grid computing      On demand CPU      Potential
                                                                       customer

  CSP/USWRP      2003-          Mesoscale processes Observations,      Influence of
                                                    mesoscale NWP      large scale
                                                                       circulation

  EARTH          Continual      High performance    Cutting edge       NWP know-how
  SIMULATOR CTR                 computations        simulations        transfer

  IHOP           2002           Convective          Parameterization   Influence of
                                processes                              large scale
                                                                       motions

  IRI            Continual      International       Organization,      Weather forecast
                                forecast services   societal impact    connection

  JHT/USWRP      Continual      Tropical storms     Tropical-          Large-scale
                                                    extratrop.         environmental
                                                    interactions       flow

  MSC/CANADA     Continual      Ensemble forecast   Statistical        Multi-center
                                exchange/research   post-processing    ensembles

  NAME           2002-2008      Observations,       Enhanced obs. over Global NWP
                                process studies     NA monsoon         considerations

  NSF EAR/IF     Continual      Observing system    Obs. technique     NWP requirements
  Program                       design              development        

  PACJET/USWRP   Continual      Short-range         Integrated         Influence of
                                forecast research   forecast approach  large scale
                                                                       environment

  RAP/NCAR       Continual      Societal            Transfer science   NWP applications
                                applications        to private sector  
  -------------- -------------- ------------------- ------------------ -----------------

Table 1: Anticipated NOAA THORPEX collaboration with other programs and
organizations. See Appendix (section 5.3) for list of abbreviations.

*Collaboration with other programs -- Benefits.* THORPEX will use the
scientific and technological expertise, observing, phenomenological and
other capabilities that other research and development programs can
offer to enhance respective NWP methods in the end-to-end forecast
process. A NOAA THORPEX Research Program priority is collaboration with
field programs where new observing systems are tested and/or data
valuable for NWP experimental use are collected. Since these are
generally very expensive programs, any collaboration with such existing
or planned programs is critical for providing the maximum resources for
other vital THORPEX research.

*4.1.6 PROGRAMMATiC ACTIVITIES*

All funding for grant-based external and internal NOAA THORPEX research
and related real-time testing and demonstration will be distributed via
peer-reviewed proposals, in the direct interest of advancing NOAA's
THORPEX service goals. This will include collaborative and joint work
with other THORPEX activities and other programs.

In the coarse of the collaborative THORPEX program, NOAA may wish to
contribute to efforts that do not directly serve its THORPEX service
goals but is likely to benefit NOAA or the broader community in other
ways. Also, service applications developed outside of NOAA's THORPEX
goal of improved 3-14 day weather forecasts will have to be adapted and
evaluated for possible use in NOAA operations. Proposals for these
activities will also go through the same peer review process described
in Sections 4.1.2 and 4.1.3 except criterion 2 for these programmatic
proposals will be modified:

1.  **Relevance to the US, North American, or International THORPEX
    science and service goals**. Ability to demonstrate how the research
    results will lead to improved forecast skill or will support other
    activities achieving that goal (40%).

## 4.2 WORK PLAN

The scientific research and supporting core activities described in
sections 3.3 and 4.1.3 will be carried out according to the time
schedule (ST - short term, 1-4 years; MT -- medium term, 5-7 years; and
LT -- long term, 8-11 years) indicated there. The related activities,
with their relative role in the integrated research program, are
summarized in Table 2.

## 4.3 DELIVERABLES

The deliverables of the THORPEX program, which will depend on the
availability of appropriate funding levels, can be summarized as
follows:

1)  THORPEX will deliver a set of new observational, data assimilation,
    numerical modeling, ensemble, and user application techniques
    according to the time-lines in Table 2. By the end of the THORPEX
    program, these techniques will form a complete set of procedures for
    the implementation of the new, integrated, dynamically controlled,
    and adaptive NWP process into weather forecast operations.

2)  The introduction of the new integrated NWP process will accelerate
    the rate of improvement in NWP forecasts. It is expected that the
    current rate of half- and 1-day improvement in 3 and 8-day forecasts
    per decade (see Fig. 7) will be doubled to 1- and 2-day
    improvements, respectively.

3)  The acceleration of NWP skill improvements will be achieved in the
    most cost-effective way. The overall societal benefits resulting
    from the implementation of the new and integrated NWP procedures
    will outweigh the incremental cost of their implementation.

    ![](media/image7.wmf) *THORPEX Service Goal.* Due to the lack of
    skill, NOAA currently issues no daily precipitation forecasts beyond
    3 days and no daily weather forecasts beyond 7 days lead-time. With
    the anticipated acceleration of improvement in forecast skill,
    THORPEX research will accomplish the stated NOAA THORPEX related
    service goal of *introducing skillful 3-7 day precipitation and 8-14
    day daily weather forecasts*. Thus, the development and
    implementation of the THORPEX integrated NWP forecast process
    constitutes a major contribution to achieving NOAA's strategic goal
    of "Advancing short-term warning and forecast services", which in
    turn will lead to significant benefits to a wide range of users.

Table 2: Relative contribution of research tasks under the four NWP
sub-components and the cross-cutting activities, as a fraction of total
funding available for external research grant
programs.![](media/image8.wmf)

## 4.4 PERFORMANCE MEASURES

The success of the program in relation to the three deliverables will be
measured as follows:

1\) The delivery of new observing, data assimilation, forecast, and
application methods and procedures, each demonstrably capable of
providing the desired skill, functionality, or speed, and each ready to
be implemented into the operations of NOAA and other interested agencies
according to the time schedule in Table 2;

2\) An assessment of whether the level of forecast improvements during
the THORPEX decade exceeds that in the preceding decades, based on
standard NWP forecast verification measures with a long historical track
record such as 500 hPa geopotential height Pattern Anomaly correlation
(PAC), Root Mean Square (RMS) error, and Equitable Threat Score (ETS) of
accumulated precipitation forecasts. The integrated nature of THORPEX
research and development work mean the overall forecast improvement can
be measured only after most research activities are completed, near the
end of the program;

3\) Delivery of methods for assessing the incremental costs and benefits
associated with the use of the new forecast methods proposed by THORPEX.

**The overall success of the NOAA THORPEX program will be measured in a
unique and comprehensive way. The program will be considered successful
if the newly developed cost/benefit analysis tools (point 3 above)
indicate that the forecast improvements (point 2) due to the new THORPEX
procedures (point 1) can be achieved operationally in a cost-effective
manner. That is, the incremental economic and societal benefits
associated with the use of the new THORPEX forecast procedures would
outweigh their implementation and maintenance costs.**

## 4.5 BROADER IMPACT ON SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH

With the adoption and development of a cost/benefit analysis as an
integral part of a research program, THORPEX and NOAA will set an
example that can be followed by other programs and agencies regarding
the evaluation of the societal benefits of scientific research programs.
For example, the comprehensive evaluation of the end-to-end forecast
process in the 3-14 day time range will allow for a cost-benefit
analysis of changes due to the introduction of not only the entire new
THORPEX paradigm, but also its four individual sub-components. At
present, only limited information is available regarding the potential
relative contribution of improvements due to the four subcomponents (see
Fig. 8).

A systematic cost-benefit analysis may reveal that certain forecast
components may have a considerably larger effect on 3-14 day forecast
improvements than others. Such results can provide important input when
a rational reallocation of long-term research and operational priorities
and resources is considered, making the operations of agencies like NOAA
more cost-effective. ![](media/image9.wmf)

## 4.6 EDUCATION AND OUTREACH

Since THORPEX is a long-term program with the goal of developing a new
forecast paradigm to be used 10-15 years from now, related educational
and outreach activities are especially important:

1\) First, today's students have to be prepared so they can join the
ongoing research efforts, and be able later to take advantage of the new
operational activities and opportunities. NOAA'a extramural research
grant program that will support research efforts at universities and
other research facilities is expected to entrain talented students and
thus contribute to successfully preparing the next generation of experts
in the research and operational areas of weather forecasting (see
Section 4.1.2).

> 2\) Second, the expert and the lay weather forecast user community
> will have to be well prepared for the introduction of new
> probabilistic forecast formats and the new adaptive forecast
> procedures. The societal and economic benefits component of the NOAA
> THORPEX Program (see Application part of the Science Plan in Section
> 3.3) will contribute to this objective through extensive collaborative
> efforts with different parts of the user community.

## 4.7 PATH TO OPERATIONS

Since the major goal of THORPEX is to accelerate advancements in NWP
forecasting, a high priority is the testing and implementation of the
new techniques and procedures in an operational environment. It follows
from the application oriented science goals of THORPEX that success can
be assured only if operational needs are carefully considered at each
step of the research process, including planning, exploration,
development, testing, and implementation. Research activities must be
conceived as part of the overall NWP oriented THORPEX program, not as
isolated scientific initiatives. Each research activity must address and
enhance parts of the new NWP forecast paradigm, considered in its
entirety as an end-to-end process. Only this will ensure that all
THORPEX funded activities contribute to the THORPEX goal of the
development of a new, integrated, and cost-effective NWP process ready
to be implemented at operational NWP centers.

The strong involvement of NOAA's operational NWP forecast center (NCEP),
and most importantly, the creation and use of an associated operational
test facility (ONTF), will allow the formal testing and subsequent
introduction of new THORPEX research results into the operational
environment. The role of the ONTF will be critical in ensuring that in
each phase of the THORPEX program emerging new research results will
find their way into operations without any delay. A series of such
implementations, in parallel with in-house NOAA efforts is expected to
significantly contribute to achieving NOAA's THORPEX Service Goals of
introducing operational 3-7 day precipitation and 8-14 day daily weather
forecasts.

## 4.8 BUDGET

Since the major NOAA THORPEX goal is the development of an integrated
NWP forecast process where the two-way interactions among observing,
data assimilation, forecasting, and user application procedures elevate
NWP forecasting to a new level of integrity and efficiency, it is
critical to secure adequate funding to address each aspect of the
forecast process. It follows from the integrated nature of the research
process that a lack of funding for one part of the program may
jeopardize the success of the program as a whole. However, adequate NOAA
funding will allow for the development of a healthy US research effort
that can significantly contribute to the international THORPEX program.

The NTEOC anticipates that funding will be available at the following
level:

2004 (Year 1) \$2M

2005 (Year 2) \$5M

2006-2014 (Years 3-11, per year) \$10M

![](media/image10.wmf)

Table 3: Estimated budget for research grants, infrastructure, and
management costs for the entire life of the NOAA THORPEX program (per
year, in Millions of \$US).

Each year, at least 50-60% of the Research Grants are expected to be
used for supporting extramural research efforts. If opportunities arise,
some of the AOs will be issued and evaluated in coordination with other
agencies (e. g., NSF). Of the overall budget (\$96.3M), approximately 5%
will be needed to continually upgrade data communication capabilities
and to establish and maintain an efficient data base; 10% for the
establishment and operation of the National Operational NWP Test
Facility (NONTF); 20% for real-life testing of the new THORPEX
end-to-end forecast paradigm, including an extensive field experiment
near the end of the program if necessary; 3% for organizational expenses
such as workshops, management staff salary, etc.; and 7% for enhancing
existing NOAA research programs so they can actively participate in the
THORPEX program and support or collaborate with extramural researchers.
Of the research grant and real-life testing expenses, 80% of total
funding is expected to be directed toward achieving NOAA's THORPEX
objectives whereas the rest of the funding will support other
synergistic THORPEX activities on the national, regional, and
international levels.

Table 3 contains an estimate of the budget numbers broken down for each
task and major time period. Note that the NOAA THORPEX Grant Program
expects to distribute funding equally among research projects in the
four main sub-programs. This is a prudent approach to follow since there
is no substantial scientific evidence on what benefits enhanced research
efforts in any of the four sub-programs might bring relative to the
others. Reallocation of resources will be possible after the major part
of the THORPEX research is completed. For further budget details on this
aspect of the program, see Table 2 in Section 4.2.

Note that the line "Testing facility" contains the combined budget for
the first three items listed in Section 4.1.4 (Data communication, data
base, and Operational NWP Test Facility). Since the ONTF will be used by
not only the THORPEX but also the wider NWP research community, the
budget for the ONTF assumes that the computational costs associated with
the ONTF will be covered from other sources. Depending on the number of
its users, the ONTF may assess a modest fee, paid out of the research
grants, to partially cover its personnel costs. Because programmatic
activities (Section 4.1.6) are beyond the control of the NOAA THORPEX
program the related costs are not listed explicitly in Table 1. The NOAA
THORPEX program will appropriate necessary funds to cover such
expenditures, up to 5% of its total budget. Since the largest
programmatic expenditures will likely be connected with international
field programs, funding for all programmatic activities will be
considered as part of the Real-time test and demonstration budget item.

#  APPENDIX

## 5.1 LINK WITH NOAA'S STRATEGIC GOALS

NOAA's THORPEX goal of improved 3-14 day weather forecasts is directly
linked with NOAA's 3^rd^ Mission Goal of serving "*Society's needs for
weather and water information"* (Strategic Plan, NOAA 2003). In
addition, the THORPEX program is expected to contribute in a significant
way to establishing NOAA's new priorities for the 21^st^ century. Thus
NOAA's THORPEX Research Program conforms in all major aspects with
NOAA's Strategic Plan.

*The 3^rd^ Mission Goal of the Strategic Plan states NOAA will "provide
integrated observations, predictions, and advice for decision makers to
manage ... environmental resources."*

THORPEX fully embraces this goal by promoting a new forecast paradigm
where the four sub-components of the forecast process are fully
integrated (section 2.3). We note that the four forecast subcomponents
of the THORPEX program correspond to the first four *"mission strategies
and measures of success*" as defined in the Strategic Plan:

NOAA MISSION STRATEGY THORPEX FORECAST PROCESS COMPONENT

Monitor and observe Observations

Understand and describe Data assimilation

Assess and predict Forecasting

Engage, advise, and inform Applications

*The 3^rd^ Mission Goal defines the "Outcome measures" as (1) the
"increased accuracy and amount of lead-time", and (2) "increased
satisfaction with and benefits from NOAA information and warning
services".*

The anticipated achievements of the THORPEX program (Section 4.3) are
assessed by the same measures of "*quality of service and benefits*"
identified in the Strategic Plan: increased skill and amount of
lead-time, and overall societal benefits. NOAA's THORPEX initiative
intends to be one of the first research programs that will measure
success in terms of whether the overall societal benefits due to the
newly developed forecast methods outweigh the associated implementation
and maintenance costs (section 4.4).

Highlights from the 3^rd^ Mission Goal of the Strategic Plan, that
THORPEX fully embraces, include:

1)  *"Cost effective observation systems" -- More observations:*

    a.  *Obtained from international and domestic partners*

    b.  *Archived, available and accessible*

    c.  *From new multi-use observing systems*

    d.  *With improved effectiveness*

        The activities and tasks described in the Observations and
        Cross-cutting sections of the Science Plan (Section 3.3)
        directly address the above priorities of the Strategic Plan.

2)  *"Shortened cycle times from research (government and academic) to
    operations (e. g., models, technology, and techniques)" for
    "Improved accuracy of weather ... models"*

THORPEX has been conceived from the start as an application-oriented
research program with a clear focus on transferability of results into
operations. All phases of the program will be conducted in this spirit,
assuring that its research efforts will lead to more accurate
operational weather forecasts (see section 4.6).

3)  *"Improve forecast and warning capabilities to reduce uncertainty
    and increase economic benefits":*

    a.  *Enhanced use of observations*

    b.  *Increased volume of information on forecast uncertainty
        (probabilities)*

    c.  *Improved performance of weather and water prediction suite*

    d.  *Increased training of users*

All these are key aspects of the THORPEX program as discussed in
different parts of the Science Plan (see Section 3).

4)  *"Bridging weather and climate time scales, NOAA will continue to
    collect environmental data and issue forecasts and warnings".*

By focusing on the medium- and extended weather prediction ranges NOAA's
THORPEX efforts will aim at bridging the gap that currently exists
between weather and climate forecasting from the weather forecasting
perspective (see Section 3). By collaborating with climate programs such
as CLIVAR and GAPP (see section 4.1.5), THORPEX expects to optimize the
use of observational and other resources to contribute to a more
economical and seamless future suite of weather and forecast products.

5)  "*Promote appropriate responses to hazardous weather- and
    water-related conditions, in order to enhance human preparedness",
    including "increased assistance to international partners".*

The application part of the THORPEX program is designed to promote such
activities, both on the national and international level (see Sections
3.3 and 3.4).

The THORPEX program will also serve and promote four of NOAA's six
Cross-cutting Priorities as defined by the Strategic Plan:

1)  *"Integrated global environmental observation and data management
    system"*

THORPEX is expected to contribute to this goal by better defining the
observational needs of weather forecasting and coordinating these needs
with those of other NOAA and extramural application requirements,
including those of climate monitoring (see the Observations parts of
Section 3)

2)  *"Environmental literacy, outreach, and education", through
    improving " awareness of \[NOAA's\] mission goals and
    accomplishments, as well as basic knowledge of the environment and
    human interactions with it"*

Through careful scientific studies, and the active involvement of user
groups the Applications sub-component of the THORPEX program is
dedicated to carry out an aggressive outreach program to existing and
potential new users (see Application parts of Section 3). At the same
time, the THORPEX program will promote and deepen the level of
interaction with academic scientists and their students through NOAA's
extramural THORPEX Research Grant program (see Sections 4.1.2 and 4.6).

3)  *"Sound, state of the art research" with an "increase \[in NOAA\]
    investments in short- and long-term research and in development",
    with an emphasis on accelerating "the transfer of knowledge and
    technology into operational use":*

    a.  *"Increased interactions among NOAA researchers, operations, and
        resource managers;*

    b.  *Increased use of models and assessments ... inside and outside
        NOAA"*

    c.  *Increased transfer of NOAA models, forecasts, products, and
        services from research into operations"*

These points in the Strategic Plan serve as the guiding principles of
the THORPEX program. Through a coordinated, long-term research program
THORPEX will revolutionize the process of weather forecasting by
delivering new techniques, methods, and procedures that are ready for
operational implementation, and will yield *"increased accuracy in
\[operational\] predictions and assessments"* (see Section 4.6).

4)  *"International cooperation and collaboration"*

THORPEX is an international program that, given the complex and global
nature of weather forecasting, cannot succeed without the participation
of a large number of countries. The THORPEX program will enable NOAA to
fully realize the benefits of, and provide the maximum contribution to
international collaboration in the area of weather forecasting (see
section 2.3.4).

> *In addition, "NOAA will continue to seek out, build, and support
> strategic partnerships with \[other\] agencies, the private sector,
> academia, and non-government organizations"*

THORPEX recognizes that to assess and predict "*evolving national
needs*" the end-to-end forecast process should be considered as a loop
where the needs of our user partners can feed back into the forecast
process in both the research and operational environment (see
Sections2.3.1 and 3.1). Collaboration and partnership, therefore, is
paramount to the success achieving NOAA's Strategic Goals.

## 5.2 LINK WITH THE NWS STIP PROCESS

Since THORPEX is an application oriented long-term research program
aimed at improving operational weather forecast procedures it is
important that NOAA's participation is coordinated with the Science and
Technology Infusion Plan (STIP) of the National Weather Service, which
is the operational arm of NOAA's weather forecast activities. NOAA's
THORPEX program conforms with all the important aspects of the STIP
process established recently at the NWS, as illustrated with the
following examples:

1)  *STIP expects that the operational requirements will motivate all
    aspects of service oriented research efforts, including planning and
    budgeting.*

Since its start, scientists from operational centers, including
NCEP/NWS, have participated in the THORPEX planning process both on the
national and international levels. The inclusion of scientists and
executives as leading members of the NOAA THORPEX Executive Oversight
Committee and the NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Team ensures
that the service priorities of NOAA's THORPEX program will be considered
in every phase of the program (see Section 4.1.1).

2)  *STIP emphasizes the need to establish a "thread to operations"
    early on. Every service oriented research effort should have a plan
    for inserting its results into operations.*

A major emphasis of NOAA's THORPEX program is the promotion of research
that either leads to operational applications or demonstrably supports
activities facilitating such applications (see Sections 4.1.1 and 4.7).

3)  *STIP supports the establishment of an NWP test facility with the
    aim of streamlining the transition of research results into
    operations.*

NOAA's THORPEX plan identifies the establishment of a National
Operational NWP Test Facility as an essential part of the program,
facilitating the flow of extramural contributions into the operational
environment (see Section 4.1.3).

4)  *STIP views weather forecasting as an end-to-end process where
    research planning starts with an analysis of operational shortfalls
    and requirements, and works backward to identify corresponding
    research foci.*

The NOAA THORPEX Research Plan follows the STIP process closely. The
plan first identifies improvements in 3-14 day precipitation and weather
forecasts as the primary service goal (Section 2.1), upon which the rest
of the research plan is based.

5)  *According to STIP, feedback, coordination, and cross-cutting
    activities are extremely important in connecting the four major
    areas (observations, data assimilation, forecasting, and
    applications) of the forecast process.*

NOAA's THORPEX program fully embraces this view by aggressively pursuing
research activities that cut across the boundaries between the four NWP
sub-areas also identified by STIP, with the aim of establishing the new,
integrated forecast paradigm of the next decade (Section 3).

## 5.3 CONTRIBUTORS

NOAA's THORPEX initiative started with a NOAA THORPEX Tiger Team Meeting
(August 6 2002). The NOAA THORPEX Research Program Plan is based to a
large extent, on the work of a NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting (October
21-22 2002), with input from the NTSIT.

*NOAATHORPEX PLANNING MEETING PARTICIPANTS:*

NWS OAR

Naomi Surgi Melvyn Shapiro

Zoltan Toth (Chair) Jeff Whithaker

*EXTRAMURAL PARTICIPANTS:*

Craig Bishop NRL Rebecca Morss NCAR

David Carlson NCAR John Murray NASA

Ron Gelaro NASA Chris Snyder NCAR

NOAA THORPEX SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION TEAM

Zoltan Toth NOAA/NCEP (Leader)

Observations: Data Assimilation:

Chris Velden Univ. Wisconsin/CIMSS Lars-Peter Riishojgaard JCSDA

David Emmitt SWA Craig Bishop NRL

Thomas Schlatter FSL

Jaime Daniels NESDIS

*Forecasting/Predictability: Applications:*

Jeff Whitaker NOAA/CDC Rebecca Morss NCAR

Jim Hansen MIT Marty Ralph NOAA/ERL

## 5.4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

On the international level, planning for the THORPEX program started in
1998. The efforts of a large number of scientists who contributed to the
planning (THORPEX 2001; 2002) are gratefully acknowledged here. Tom
Hamill of NOAA/CDC offered substantive comments both at the
international and NOAA level. The NOAA THORPEX Science and
Implementation Team members are also grateful to John Gaynor and Ward
Seguin of the Interagency Program Office (IPO) of the USWRP program,
Louis Uccellini, director of National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP), Stephen Lord, Director of Environmental Modeling
Center of NCEP, and David Rogers, Director of NOAA/OWAQ, for their
support of the planning process. The editorial comments of Mary Hart of
SAIC at NCEP are also acknowledged.

## 5.5 REFERENCES

Atlas, R. 1997:Atmospheric observation and experiments to assess their
usefulness in data assimilation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 75,111-130.

Dutton, J. A., 2002: Opportunities and Priorities in a New Era for
Weather and Climate Services. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 1303-1312.

Joly, A., K. A. Browning, P. Bessemoulin, J.-P. Cammas, G. Caniaux,
J.-P. Chalon, S. A. Clough, R. Dirks, K. A. Emanuel, L. Eymard, F.
Lalaurette, R. Gall, T. D. Hewson, P. H. Hildebrand, D. Jorgensen, R. H.
Langland, Y. Lemaitre, P. Mascart, J. A. Moore, P. O. G. Persson, F.
Roux, M. A. Shapiro, C. Snyder, Z. Toth, R. M. Wakimoto, 1999: Overview
of the field phase of the Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment
(FASTEX) project. QJRMS, 125, 3131-3164.

Kurihara, Y., R. E. Tuleya, and M.A. Bender, 1998: The GFDL Hurricane
Prediction System and its performance in the 1995 hurricane season. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 126, 1306-1322.

Langland, R. H., Z. Toth, R. Gelaro, I. Szunyogh, M. A. Shapiro, S.
Majumdar, R. Morss, G. D. Rohaly, C. Velden, N. Bond, and C. Bishop,
1999: The North-Pacific Experiment (NORPEX-98) Targeted observations for
improved North American Weather Forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc.,
80, 1363-1384.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 1998: NOAA
Strategic Plan - A Vision for 2005. NOAA, September 1998. Available
from: <http://www.strategic.noaa.gov/strategic.pdf>

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2003: New
Priorities for the 21^st^ Century: NOAA's Strategic Plan for FY
2003-2208 and Beyond. Draft, NOAA, January 2003. Available from
http://www.osp.noaa.gov/index.htm.

NOAA/OGP, 2002: Information on NOAA/OGP programs is available at:
<http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/>

National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System
(NPOESS), 2002: Information available at:
<http://www.ipo.noaa.gov/index2.html>

National Research Council (NRC), Board on Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate, 2000: From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and
Numerical Weather Prediction: Crossing the Valley of Death. The National
Academies Press, pp. 96, available from:
http://www.nap.edu/books/0309069416/html/

National Weather Service (NWS), 1999: Vision 2005. National Weather
Service Strategic Plan for Weather, Water, and Climate Services
2000-2005. Available from U. S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic
and Atmorphseric Administration, NWS, 1315 East West Highway, Silver
Spring, MD, 20910-3282.

Palmer, T. N., 2001: A nonlinear dynamical perspective on model error: A
proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and
climate prediction models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 279-304.

Richardson, D. S., 2000a: Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF
ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 649-668.

Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP), 2003: Introduction to STIP.
NWS, Edited by P. Hirschberg, presentation available at:
http://205.156.54.206/ost/stip02/stip-present.html.

Steiner, M., M. Seablom, S. Neeck, G. McConaughy, M. Clausen, M. Kalb,
and R. Muller, 2003: Future architectures for operational forecasting:
Two-way interacting sensorweb and model / assimilation system.
Proceedings of the Third AMS Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Applications to the Environmental Sciences, February 9-13 2003, Long
Beach, CA, in print.

THORPEX, 2001: The Hemispheric Observing System Research and
Predictability Experiment (THORPEX). Proposal to the WWRP/WGNE by
Langland, R., M. Shapiro, and A. Thorpe, pp. 40. Available online at:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/\~langland/THORPEX_document/Thorpex_plan.htm.

THORPEX, 2002: A Global Atmospheric Research Program. Program Overview
by M. Shairo and A. Thorpe. Available at:
<http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/uswrp/programs/thorpex.html>

Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh, C. Bishop, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, and S. Lord,
2001: On the use of targeted observations in operational numerical
weather prediction. Preprints for the Fifth Symposium on Integrated
Observing Systems, January, 15-19, 2001, Albaquerque, NM, AMS, 72-79.

Toth, Z., I. Szunyogh, C. Bishop, S. Majumdar, R. Morss, J. Moskaitis,
D. Reynolds, D. Weinbrenner, D. Michaud, N. Surgi, M. Ralph, J. Parrish,
J. Talbot, J. Pavone, and S. Lord, 2002: Adaptive observations at NCEP:
Past, present, and future. Preprints for the Symposium on Observations,
Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction, 13-17 January 2002,
Orlando, FL, 185-190.

Toth, Z., and S. Vannitsem, 2002: Model errors and ensemble forecasting.
Proceedings of the 8th ECMWF Workshop on Meteorological Operational
Systems. November 12-16, 2001, Reading, England, 146-154.

Vannitsem, S., and Z. Toth, 2002: Short-term dynamics of model errors.
JAS, in print.

USWRP, 2002: Information on USWRP programs is available at:
<http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/uswrp/>

Zhu, Y., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Richardson, and K. Mylne, 2002: The
economic value of ensemble based weather forecasts. Bull. Amer.
Meteorol. Soc., 83, 73-83.

## 5.6 LIST OF ACRONYMS

AFWC Air Force Weather Center

AO Announcement of Opportunity

CDC Climate Diagnostics Center

CIMSS Cooperative Institute in Meteorological Satellite Studies

CIRA Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

CLIVAR International Research Programme on Climate Variability and

> Predictability

CSPP Cold Season Precipitation Program

DOC Department of Commerce

DOD Department of Defence

EMC Environmental Modeling Center

ERL Environmental Research Laboratory

ETS Equitable Threat Score

FGGE First GARP Global Experiment

FNMOC Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center

FSL Forecast Systems Laboratory

GAPP GEWEX Americas Prediction Project

GARP Global Atmospheric Research Program

GEWEX Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment

GSFC Goddard Space and Flight Center

HPC Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

ICSC Internatinoal Core Steering Committee

IHOP International H2O Project

IPO Integrated Program Office

ISSC International Science Steering Committee

JCSDA Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

JHT Joint Hurricane Testbed

LT Long Term (7-10 years)

MT Medium Term (4-6 years)

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Agency

NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction

NCO NCEP Central Operations

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NPOESS National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
System

NRC National Research Council

NRL Naval Research Laboratory

NSF National Science Foundation

NTEOC NOAA THORPEX Executive Oversight Committee

NTSIT NOAA THORPEX Science and Implementation Team

NWP Numerical Weather Prediction

NWS National Weather Service

OAR Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

ONR Office of Naval Research

OGP Office of Global Programs

ONTF Operational NWP Test Facility

OSSE Observing System Simulation Experiment

OST Office of Science and Technology

OWAQ Office of Weather and Air Quality

PAC Pattern Anomaly Correlation

PACJET Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment

RCSC Regional Core Steering Committee

RMS Root Mean Square

RSSC Regional Science Steering Committee

SQ Scientific Questions

STIP Science and Technology Infusion Plan

TOST THORPEX Observing System Test

ST Short Term (1-3 years)

WSR Winter Storm Reconnaissance

##