Tropical Cyclone Report

Tropical Storm Delta

22 - 28 November 2005

Jack Beven

National Hurricane Center

14 February 2005

Delta was a late-season tropical storm of subtropical origin. After
losing tropical characteristics, the cyclone caused casualties and
storm- to hurricane-force winds in the Canary Islands.

a.  Synoptic History

    Delta had a non-tropical origin. A broad area of low pressure formed
    on 19 November about 1200 n mi southwest of the Azores. The system
    moved generally east-northeastward through 20 November while in the
    vicinity of a cold front trailing from another low to the north. The
    incipient Delta then turned northeastward on 21 November while it
    started developing central convection. By 0900 UTC 22 November,
    QuikSCAT data indicated the formation of an inner wind maximum,
    while data from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit indicated the
    formation of an upper-level warm core. These indicated the low was
    acquiring some tropical cyclone characteristics. By 1800 UTC that
    day, satellite imagery indicated the low had become more isolated
    from the frontal cloud bands, and it is estimated that a subtropical
    storm formed about that time when centered about 755 n mi southwest
    of the Azores. The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path
    is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in
    Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and
    intensities are listed in Table 1.

    The storm moved little early on 22 November, but it began a
    south-southwestward motion late that day. The convection
    consolidated, and it is estimated that Delta became a tropical storm
    near 1200 UTC 23 November. Delta turned southeastward late on 23
    November and then stalled on 24 November about 1150 n mi
    west-southwest of the Canary Islands. The cyclone reached a first
    estimated peak intensity of 60 kt by 1200 UTC that day. Delta moved
    southwestward on 25 November, followed by turns toward the southeast
    and east-northeast on 26 November. Increasing vertical wind shear
    caused weakening during this time, with the maximum winds decreasing
    to an estimated 35 kt.

    Delta accelerated east-northeastward on 27 November in response to
    an intensifying deep-layer trough over western Europe. This was
    accompanied by re-intensification, with the short-lived formation of
    a ragged eye near 1200 UTC. It is estimated that the maximum winds
    again reached 60 kt at that time. The cyclone turned
    east-northeastward on 28 November while it moved into the surface
    baroclinic zone associated with the European trough. A combination
    of increasing vertical shear and cold air entrainment caused Delta
    to lose tropical characteristics, and it is estimated it became
    extratropical about 1200 UTC 28 November about 215 n mi
    west-northwest of the western Canary Islands. The extratropical
    remnants of Delta continued eastward, passing about 90 n mi north of
    the Canary Islands later that day with winds estimated at 60 kt. The
    storm moved eastward into Morocco early on 29 November and then
    accelerated east-northeastward across Morocco while rapidly
    weakening. The cyclone dissipated late on 29 November over
    northwestern Algeria.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Delta (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based Dvorak
    technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and
    the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). Microwave satellite
    imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical
    Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA Aqua, the NASA QuikSCAT,
    the Department of Defense WindSat, and Defense Meteorological
    Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were also useful in tracking
    Delta.

    Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with Delta
    are given in Table 2. The most significant observation was from the
    **British Merchant** (call sign VQIB9), which reported 60-kt winds
    and a pressure of 990.8 mb northwest of the center during the
    re-intensification of Delta on 27 November. Additionally, a drifting
    buoy reported a pressure of 984.4 mb at 0200 UTC 23 November.

    Delta did not affect land as a tropical or subtropical storm.
    However, as an extratropical low, it significantly affected the
    Canary Islands. A station on Tenerife reported sustained winds of 63
    kt with a gust of 79 kt at 2130 UTC 28 November, while a station on
    La Palma reported a gust to 82 kt at 2000 UTC. Additionally, the
    Izaña Observatory located at an altitude of 7766 ft (2367 m)
    reported sustained winds of 98 kt with a gust to 134 kt at 2031 UTC.
    The strong winds in the Canary Islands were also sampled by a
    QuikSCAT overpass at 1815 UTC that day, with experimental
    high-resolution data from that pass shown in Figure 4.

    Based on the ragged eye (Figure 5), and on the 60-kt ship report in
    what would normally be the weaker side of an
    east-northeastward-moving tropical cyclone, it is possible that
    Delta reached hurricane strength for a brief time on 27 November.
    However, the data are not conclusive enough to justify an
    after-the-fact upgrade.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Delta
    as a tropical or subtropical storm. However, as an extratropical
    low, Delta was responsible for seven deaths in and near the Canary
    Islands. This included six people who drowned when their boat
    overturned, with twelve people from the boat reported missing. The
    winds of ex-Delta caused widespread power outages in the Canary
    Islands.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    Average official track errors (with the number of cases in
    parentheses) for Delta were 52 (17), 104 (15), 170 (13), 258 (11),
    427 (7), and 681 (3) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, and 96 h
    forecasts, respectively. These errors are significantly larger than
    the average official track errors for the 10-yr period 1995-2004[^1]
    (42, 75, 107, 138, 202, and 236 n mi, respectively, Table 3). Two
    factors contributed the large track forecast errors. First, early
    forecasts called for Delta to turn northward in response to a
    developing low pressure area to the west. The storm actually moved
    southward and then eastward. Later forecasts correctly called for an
    eastward motion due to the European trough, but the forecast motion
    was slower than what occurred. Many of the numerical guidance models
    had lower average track forecast errors than the official forecasts,
    particularly during the 24-72 h period. The U. S. National Weather
    Service Global Forecast System model, the U. S. Navy NOGAPS model,
    the U. S. Air Force MM5 model, and the European Center for Medium
    Range Forecasting model all had notably lower average errors than
    the official forecast.

    Average official intensity errors were 9, 13, 17, 17, 12, and 10 kt
    for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, and 96 h forecasts, respectively. For
    comparison, the average official intensity errors over the 10-yr
    period 1995-2004 are 6, 10, 12, 15, 18, and 20 kt, respectively. The
    main factors in the intensity forecast errors were forecasting
    insufficient weakening of Delta on 25-26 November and insufficient
    re-intensification on 27 November.

    The genesis of Delta was well anticipated in Tropical Prediction
    Center products. The Tropical Weather Outlook and the Tropical
    Cyclone Marine Danger graphic both mentioned the potential for
    subtropical cyclone development about 48 h before the pre-Delta low
    became a subtropical storm.

    No watches or warnings were issued for Delta.

    *Acknowledgement*

Data on the effects of ex-Delta in the Canary Islands were provided by
the Instituto Nacional De Meteorología of Spain.

Table 1. Best track for Tropical Storm Delta, 22 - 28 November 2005.

+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| Da      | L       | Lo      | Pressure  | Wind      | Stage        |
| te/Time | atitude | ngitude |           | Speed     |              |
|         |         |         | (mb)      |           |              |
| (UTC)   | \(N\)   | \(W\)   |           | (kt)      |              |
+=========+=========+=========+===========+===========+==============+
| 19 /    | 27.0    | 48.0    | 1010      | 25        | e            |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           | xtratropical |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 19 /    | 26.7    | 47.5    | 1009      | 25        | \"           |
| 1800    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 20 /    | 26.7    | 46.7    | 1008      | 25        | \"           |
| 0000    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 20 /    | 27.2    | 45.9    | 1008      | 25        | \"           |
| 0600    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 20 /    | 27.7    | 44.8    | 1007      | 30        | \"           |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 20 /    | 28.0    | 43.5    | 1003      | 35        | \"           |
| 1800    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 21 /    | 28.3    | 42.2    | 1000      | 35        | \"           |
| 0000    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 21 /    | 29.0    | 41.1    | 998       | 35        | \"           |
| 0600    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 21 /    | 29.9    | 40.1    | 996       | 35        | \"           |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 21 /    | 30.9    | 39.6    | 994       | 40        | \"           |
| 1800    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 22 /    | 31.5    | 40.1    | 992       | 40        | \"           |
| 0000    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 22 /    | 31.4    | 39.9    | 990       | 45        | \"           |
| 0600    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 22 /    | 31.2    | 39.8    | 988       | 45        | \"           |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 22 /    | 30.7    | 40.5    | 986       | 45        | subtropical  |
| 1800    |         |         |           |           | storm        |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 23 /    | 29.9    | 40.9    | 984       | 45        | \"           |
| 0000    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 23 /    | 28.8    | 41.3    | 983       | 45        | \"           |
| 0600    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 23 /    | 27.4    | 41.2    | 983       | 50        | tropical     |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           | storm        |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 23 /    | 26.4    | 40.8    | 983       | 50        | \"           |
| 1800    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 24 /    | 25.5    | 40.2    | 982       | 55        | \"           |
| 0000    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 24 /    | 25.0    | 39.6    | 981       | 55        | \"           |
| 0600    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 24 /    | 24.8    | 39.0    | 980       | 60        | \"           |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 24 /    | 24.6    | 38.9    | 980       | 60        | \"           |
| 1800    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 25 /    | 24.1    | 39.0    | 980       | 60        | \"           |
| 0000    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 25 /    | 23.8    | 39.3    | 982       | 55        | \"           |
| 0600    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 25 /    | 23.3    | 39.6    | 982       | 55        | \"           |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 25 /    | 22.8    | 39.8    | 985       | 50        | \"           |
| 1800    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 26 /    | 22.3    | 39.8    | 989       | 45        | \"           |
| 0000    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 26 /    | 21.8    | 39.4    | 993       | 40        | \"           |
| 0600    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 26 /    | 22.0    | 38.4    | 997       | 35        | \"           |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 26 /    | 22.6    | 37.3    | 997       | 35        | \"           |
| 1800    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 27 /    | 23.5    | 35.8    | 998       | 35        | \"           |
| 0000    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 27 /    | 24.8    | 34.0    | 993       | 45        | \"           |
| 0600    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 27 /    | 26.7    | 31.9    | 982       | 60        | \"           |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 27 /    | 28.3    | 29.9    | 982       | 60        | \"           |
| 1800    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 28 /    | 29.1    | 27.5    | 983       | 60        | \"           |
| 0000    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 28 /    | 29.9    | 24.8    | 984       | 60        | \"           |
| 0600    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 28 /    | 30.2    | 21.6    | 985       | 60        | e            |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           | xtratropical |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 28 /    | 30.2    | 18.2    | 986       | 60        | \"           |
| 1800    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 29 /    | 30.2    | 14.6    | 988       | 55        | \"           |
| 0000    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 29 /    | 30.7    | 10.9    | 992       | 50        | \"           |
| 0600    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 29 /    | 32.6    | 6.6     | 1000      | 35        | \"           |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 29 /    | 35.3    | 1.0     | 1003      | 30        | \"           |
| 1800    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 30 /    |         |         |           |           | dissipated   |
| 0000    |         |         |           |           |              |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+
| 24 /    | 24.8    | 39.0    | 980       | 60        | minimum      |
| 1200    |         |         |           |           | pressure     |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+-----------+--------------+

Table 2. Selected ship reports with winds of at least 34 kt for Tropical
Storm Delta, 22 - 28 November 2005.

+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| Da      | Ship name/call    | La     | Lon    | Wind      | P       |
| te/Time | sign              | titude | gitude |           | ressure |
| (UTC)   |                   |        |        | dir/speed |         |
|         |                   | \(N\)  | \(W\)  | (kt)      | (mb)    |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 22 /    | **Chiquita        | 30.3   | 41.4   | 340 / 44  | 990.8   |
| 1200    | Schwiez**         |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 22 /    | **Chiquita        | 30.7   | 44.3   | 360 / 45  | 999.2   |
| 1800    | Belgie**          |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 23 /    | **Chiquita        | 31.2   | 43.2   | 360 / 45  | 996.8   |
| 0000    | Belgie**          |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 23 /    | **Chiquita        | 32.8   | 38.5   | 130 / 37  | 999.2   |
| 0000    | Schwiez**         |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 23 /    | **Sealand         | 29.9   | 43.5   | 360 / 44  | 993.8   |
| 0300    | Quality**         |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 23 /    | **Sealand         | 30.0   | 42.8   | 010 / 44  | 992.2   |
| 0600    | Quality**         |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 23 /    | **Chiquita        | 31.9   | 42.0   | 050 / 45  | 1000.7  |
| 0600    | Belgie**          |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 23 /    | **Sealand         | 30.4   | 41.5   | 050 / 44  | 998.2   |
| 1200    | Quality**         |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 23 /    | DINA11            | 31.5   | 35.5   | 070 / 47  | 1005.0  |
| 1200    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 24 /    | DINA11            | 28.3   | 42.3   | 030 / 47  | 1008.0  |
| 1200    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 27 /    | **British         | 29.1   | 30.0   | 030 / 60  | 990.8   |
| 1800    | Merchant**        |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+
| 28 /    | **Poseidon**      | 28.3   | 15.3   | 180 / 35  | 1000.7  |
| 1800    |                   |        |        |           |         |
+---------+-------------------+--------+--------+-----------+---------+

Table 3. Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for
Tropical Storm Delta, 22 - 28 November 2005. Forecast errors (n mi) are
followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than
the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type. Verification
includes the depression stage, but does not include the extratropical
stage.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Forecast  | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 82    | 196   | 327   | 415   | 474 ( | 743 ( | 837 ( |
|           | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | 60    | 108   | **    | **    | **    | 632 ( |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | 143** | 195** | 381** | 4)    |       |
|           |       |       | (14)  | (12)  | ( 8)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDL^\*^  | 56    | 109   | **    | **    | **    | **    | 638 ( |
|           | (17)  | (15)  | 146** | 177** | 325** | 523** | 1)    |
|           |       |       | (13)  | (11)  | ( 8)  | ( 4)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 55    | **    | **    | **    | 506 ( | 780 ( |       |
|           | (15)  | 101** | 135** | 175** | 5)    | 1)    |       |
|           |       | (13)  | (11)  | ( 9)  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDN^\*^  | 58    | 107   | **    | **    | **    | 619 ( |       |
|           | (14)  | (12)  | 129** | 143** | 399** | 1)    |       |
|           |       |       | (10)  | ( 8)  | ( 5)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FV4       | 56    | *     | **    | **    | **    | **    |       |
|           | (16)  | *95** | 145** | 214** | 393** | 567** |       |
|           |       | (13)  | (11)  | (10)  | ( 6)  | ( 2)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AF1I      | 60    | 112   | **    | **    | **    |       |       |
|           | (13)  | (11)  | 133** | 119** | 186** |       |       |
|           |       |       | ( 9)  | ( 7)  | ( 3)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AFW1^\*^  | 79 (  | *     | **    | *     | **    |       |       |
|           | 7)    | *94** | 143** | *80** | 144** |       |       |
|           |       | ( 6)  | ( 5)  | ( 4)  | ( 2)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | 611 ( |       |
|           | *49** | *84** | 105** | 118** | 273** | 4)    |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | ( 8)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSO^\*^  | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | **    | 940 ( |
|           | *48** | *80** | 103** | 112** | 215** | 515** | 1)    |
|           | (18)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | ( 9)  | ( 5)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | **    |       |
|           | *49** | *77** | 104** | 127** | 242** | 491** |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | ( 8)  | ( 4)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMN^\*^  | *     | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | 607 ( |
|           | *47** | *80** | *98** | 117** | 202** | 419** | 2)    |
|           | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | ( 9)  | ( 5)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | *     | *     | *     | **    | **    | 709 ( |       |
|           | *41** | *72** | *95** | 136** | 341** | 4)    |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | ( 8)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPS^\*^  | *     | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | 989 ( |
|           | *47** | *69** | *93** | 117** | 238** | 562** | 2)    |
|           | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | ( 9)  | ( 5)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 59    | 132   | 206   | 271 ( | 456 ( | 900 ( |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKM^\*^   | 68 (  | 104 ( | 187 ( | **    | **    | 681 ( |       |
|           | 8)    | 7)    | 6)    | 224** | 403** | 1)    |       |
|           |       |       |       | ( 5)  | ( 3)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CMC^\*^   | 91    | 125 ( | **    | **    | **    |       |       |
|           | (10)  | 9)    | 156** | 203** | 363** |       |       |
|           |       |       | ( 8)  | ( 7)  | ( 5)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CEMN^\*^  | 75 (  | 124 ( | **    | **    | **    | **    | 631 ( |
|           | 5)    | 5)    | 124** | 165** | 403** | 539** | 1)    |
|           |       |       | ( 5)  | ( 3)  | ( 3)  | ( 2)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EMXI      | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | **    |       |
|           | *43** | *86** | 132** | 173** | 284** | 536** |       |
|           | ( 8)  | ( 8)  | ( 7)  | ( 6)  | ( 4)  | ( 2)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EMX^\*^   | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | **    | 587 ( |
|           | *47** | *78** | 105** | 151** | 239** | 378** | 1)    |
|           | ( 9)  | ( 8)  | ( 7)  | ( 6)  | ( 4)  | ( 2)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| EEMN^\*^  | 59 (  | *     | **    | **    | **    |       |       |
|           | 4)    | *77** | 142** | 234** | 407** |       |       |
|           |       | ( 2)  | ( 2)  | ( 2)  | ( 1)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| A98E      | 60    | 121   | 195   | 296   | **    | **    | 689 ( |
|           | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | 419** | 474** | 1)    |
|           |       |       |       |       | ( 9)  | ( 5)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| A9UK      | 59    | 122 ( | 191 ( | 280 ( | 461 ( |       |       |
|           | (10)  | 9)    | 8)    | 7)    | 5)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 83    | 183   | 268   | 339   | **    | **    | 453 ( |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (15)  | (13)  | 374** | 469** | 1)    |
|           |       |       |       |       | ( 9)  | ( 5)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | **    | 666 ( |
|           | *36** | *77** | 105** | 140** | 376** | 648** | 1)    |
|           | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | ( 9)  | ( 5)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 79    | 132   | 199   | 295   | 552 ( | 738 ( | 508 ( |
|           | (19)  | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | 9)    | 5)    | 1)    |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| LBAR      | *     | 121   | 230   | 327   | 462 ( | **    | 371 ( |
|           | *45** | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | 9)    | 433** | 1)    |
|           | (19)  |       |       |       |       | ( 5)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CONU      | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | **    |       |
|           | *43** | *81** | 111** | 154** | 345** | 638** |       |
|           | (18)  | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | ( 8)  | ( 4)  |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | 773 ( |       |
|           | *46** | *93** | 128** | 176** | 374** | 1)    |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | ( 9)  | ( 5)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNS      | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | 779 ( |       |
|           | *48** | *96** | 140** | 193** | 397** | 1)    |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | ( 9)  | ( 5)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | *     | *     | **    | **    | **    | 718 ( |       |
|           | *45** | *81** | 101** | 129** | 349** | 2)    |       |
|           | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | (10)  | ( 6)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OOPC      | 70    | 113   | **    | **    | **    | 769 ( |       |
|           | (15)  | (13)  | 134** | 162** | 422** | 1)    |       |
|           |       |       | (11)  | ( 9)  | ( 5)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCI      | 63    | 126   | 215   | 312   | 499 ( | 764 ( |       |
|           | (16)  | (14)  | (12)  | (10)  | 6)    | 2)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 52    | 104   | 170   | 258   | 427 ( | 681 ( |       |
|           | (17)  | (15)  | (13)  | (11)  | 7)    | 3)    |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 42    | 75    | 107   | 138   | 202   | 236   | 310   |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (649) | (535) |
|           | 3400) | 3116) | 2848) | 2575) | 2117) |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 1995-2004 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

^\*^ Output from these models was unavailable at forecast time.

![](media/image1.wmf){width="8.161111111111111in"
height="6.270833333333333in"}

Figure 1. Best track positions for Tropical Storm Delta, 22 - 28
November 2005.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="8.600694444444445in"
height="5.985416666666667in"}

Figure 2. Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained
surface wind speed curve for Tropical Storm Delta, 22 -28 November 2005.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="8.690277777777778in"
height="6.057638888888889in"}

Figure 3. Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central
pressure curve for Tropical Storm Delta, 22 - 28 November 2005.

![](media/image4.png){width="6.5in" height="6.65in"}

Figure 4. Experimental high-resolution QuikSCAT overpass of the former
Tropical Storm Delta at 1815 UTC 28 November 2005. Image courtesy of the
NESDIS Marine Observing Systems Team and Brigham Young University.

![](media/image5.png){width="6.5in" height="6.5in"}

Figure 5. METEOSAT-8 visible image of Tropical Storm Delta at 1200 UTC
27 November 2005. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory,
Monterey, CA, and EUMETSAT.

[^1]: Errors given for the 96 and 120 h periods are averages over the
    four-year period 2001-4.