#########  NASA Earth Science Enterprise

**[National Applications Program]{.smallcaps}**

> **[Aviation Element]{.smallcaps}**

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

*Earth Science for Aviation*

***Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products***

***Aviation Applications Project Plan: 2004***

*April 15, 2004*

![](media/image1.wmf){width="1.1901574803149606in"
height="0.9838582677165354in"}![](media/image2.png){width="1.3200787401574803in"
height="1.1456692913385826in"}

*Earth Science for Society*

> *Accelerating the realization of economic*
>
> *and societal benefits from Earth science,*
>
> *information, and technology ...*

**NASA Earth Science Applications Program**

*Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products (ASAP)*

*FY2004 Project Plan*

####### ASAP Abstract

The NASA Office of Earth Science inaugurated its Advanced Satellite
Aviation-weather Products (ASAP) effort in 2003 in partnership with the
NASA Office of Aeronautics Aviation Safety and Security Program (AVSSP).
ASAP is implemented through the AvSSP Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP)
Project's Aviation Weather INformation (AWIN) element. Its purpose is to
develop satellite data applications to enhance aviation weather hazard
nowcasting and short-term forecasting products developed by the Federal
Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP).
Nearly 30% of all aviation accidents are directly attributable to
weather, so to reduce and mitigate these accidents these products are
used in various Decision Support Systems (DSS): AWIN's cockpit weather
displays, by FAA Flight Service Station briefers and by other federal
agencies with direct access to the National Weather Service (NWS)
Aviation Weather Center (AWC) daily production cycle. They are available
to the aviation community at large via the Internet at the AWC Aviation
Digital Data Service (ADDS).

An ASAP Study completed by the University of Wisconsin Cooperative
Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies in 2002 developed the
scope of this project. An ASAP Benefits Analysis conducted by MCR
Federal, Inc. in 2003 identified its impact and defined its focus. ASAP
participates directly in FAA AWRP Product Development Team (PDT)
research to develop or enhance graphical products for various hazards.
ASAP collaborates with the FAA AWRP In-Flight Icing, Turbulence,
Convective Weather, National Ceiling and Visibility, and Oceanic Weather
PDT's. Dedicated NC&V research was de-scoped for 2004 due to budgetary
considerations. NASA ASAP research is planned and conducted through
close inter-agency collaboration that matches NASA ASAP capabilities
with FAA AWRP assessments of societal impacts, nowcasting requirements,
research capabilities and available resources.

During 2004, ASAP is working with the In-flight Icing PDT to enhance
their Current Icing Potential (CIP) and Forecast Icing Potential (FIP)
products. These products are produced and updated hourly by the NWS. The
planned enhancement uses satellite retrievals of cloud microphysical
properties associated with super-cooled water at various flight levels
to more accurately assess icing potential for the CIP and FIP. The
associated ASAP algorithms were fully matured during 2003 and extended
to cover all of the CONUS and Alaska. They are undergoing an IBPD
benchmark in 2004 to quantitatively assess their impact before they are
operationally implemented in 2005. ASAP development efforts over the
next two years also focus on a range of activities with the PDT's listed
previously, but are pursued primarily within the context of the Oceanic
Weather PDT. These efforts include satellite data applications for
volcanic ash, convective weather, turbulence, oceanic flight-level winds
and flight-level temperatures. Oceanic manifestations of these hazards
are particular candidates for satellite data solutions because the
variety and density of observations provided by land-based observing
systems are not widely available throughout oceanic areas.

**[Preface]{.underline}**

This project plan was formulated in accordance with NASA NPG 7120.5B.
Its purpose is to:

\- Help the project manager and project team articulate and conduct a
project's activities

\- Communicate a project's bounds, expectations, and commitments

\- Share information with the Earth science network and foster
appropriate contributions

> \- Demonstrate to internal and external organizations that NASA and
> the Earth Science Applications Program have an organized, committed
> approach to extend Earth science results to enhance decision support
> capabilities.

**[Introduction]{.underline}**

1\. Purpose & Scope

Aviation applications research conducted the NASA ESE Applications
Division as part of its National Applications Program is outlined in the
NASA ESE Aviation Element Plan. The primary research activity of that
element is Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products (ASAP). ASAP is
currently administered in partnership with the NASA Aviation Safety and
Security Program (AvSSP), Weather Accident Prevention Project (WxAP),
Aviation Weather Information (AWIN) element. It is implemented in
partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration's Aviation Weather
Research Program (FAA AWRP). The purpose and scope of ASAP are 1- to
fill a critical gap in the integration of current NOAA Geostationary
Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and polar orbiting
environmental satellite (including Earth Observing System (EOS) and NOAA
Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) satellite) data
in the production of operational aviation weather products developed by
the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) and 2- to bridge the
gap between the development of these aviation weather products and
integrating the next generation of high-resolution satellite data into
them. This development will substantially employ data obtained by
high-altitude, airborne, hyperspectral sounders such as the NPOESS
Airborne Sounder Test-bed (NAST) and new satellite sounders and imagers
such as the Airborne Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Cross-track Infrared
Sounder (CrIS) as well as other new Polar and Geostationary Orbiting
Environmental Satellites (POES and GOES) to support FAA AWRP product
development for ground and airborne aviation-weather product production.
Figure 1 delineates the ASAP timeline through FY2009.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="3.3777777777777778in"
height="2.5243055555555554in"}

Figure 1. ASAP Elements and Timeline

During 2004, ASAP is scheduled to complete a major milestone, an IBPD
benchmark of satellite data enhancements to the operational FAA Current
Icing Potential (CIP) product. Major milestones for 2005 will be
selected during the 2004 ASAP review conducted jointly by the NASA
Office of Earth Science (Code Y) and the NASA Office of Aeronautics
(Code R). They will be promulgated in the 2005 ASAP plan during the
summer of 2004.

After mid FY2005, ASAP is planned to continue its activities under Phase
II of the NASA Aviation Safety and Security Program to continue the
enhancement of FAA AWRP Products with satellite data applications. The
basic partnerships with the NASA ESE, AvSSP, the FAA AWRP and ASAPS
academic research partners is expected to continue and evolve to fully
exploit the synergistic capabilities of EOS and NOAA satellites (E.g.
the AQUA train, NPP and NPOESS). It will also facilitate the operational
use of the next generation GOES as a key platform within the suite of
operational satellites whose data will be exploited by ASAP. The ESE
Applications Division has also joined the newly formed interagency Joint
Planning and Development Office Aviation-weather Sub-group to assist it
in its efforts to transform the National Airspace System (NAS) by
developing an Aviation Weather Digital Database (AWDD). The planned AWDD
is envisioned to be a primary tool to fully automate the NAS and ASAP
will play a major role in its development.

2\. 2004 Project Goal & Objectives.

As stated in the abstract to this plan, ASAP's goal is to develop
satellite data applications utilizing NASA research data and expertise
to enhance aviation weather hazard nowcasting and short-term forecasting
products developed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation
Weather Research Program (AWRP). These goals will be achieved through
coordinated research activities conducted by ASAP labs at the NASA
Langley Research Center, the National Center for Atmospheric Research,
the University of Wisconsin/NOAA Cooperative Institute for
Meteorological Satellite Studies, the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology Lincoln Laboratories, and the University of Alabama at
Huntsville. The methodology employed is for these laboratories to
develop satellite data algorithms to enhance operational National
Weather service products (expert systems) for in-flight icing, volcanic
ash, oceanic flight-level winds, flight-level temperatures, convection
and turbulence that are developed by FAA AWRP Product Development Teams.
ASAP has actively joined this team to accomplish these enhancements.

ASAP's primary objectives in FY 2004 are to:

-   Participate in aviation weather and satellite data collection
    experiments such as THORPEX and AIRSII during early FY2004 to
    support 2004 research activities.

-   Conduct an IPBD benchmark of ASAP in-flight icing algorithms with
    the FAA AWRP In-flight Icing Product Development Team.

-   Research the development of satellite based oceanic wind,
    temperature, convection and turbulence methodologies and algorithms
    and evaluate these parameters for the enhancement of targeted,
    operational FAA AWRP products.

-   Research volcanic ash and lightning detection capabilities of EOS,
    NOAA and DSP satellites to assist the FAA AWRP Oceanic Weather
    Product Development to develop an integrated volcanic ash warning
    product and an Oceanic Convective Weather Forecast product.

**[ASAP Team]{.underline}**

3\. Project Team.

NASA ASAP Project Management:

Project Manager. John J. Murray, NASA LaRC

Deputy Project Manager. Melinda F. Cagle, NASA LaRC

Primary Contractor ASAP Manager, Charles McKinley, SAIC, Inc.

Icing/Cloud Product Development Lead. Patrick Minnis, NASA LaRC

Sounding Product Development Lead, Wayne Feltz, University of Wisconsin
CIMSS

Convection Product Development Lead, John Mecikalski, University of
Alabama at Huntsville

Oceanic Weather Product Development Lead, David Johnson, NCAR

Volcanic Ash Product Development Team Lead, Earle Williams, MIT/LL

FAA ASAP Coordination Leads:

FAA AWRP Coordination Lead, Peter Kirchoffer, FAA AWRP OWPDT Manager

FAA In-flight Icing Product Development Team Lead, Marcia Politovich,
NCAR

FAA Oceanic Weather Product Development Team Lead, Tenny Lindholm, NCAR

FAA Convective Weather Product Development Team Lead, Marilyn Wolfson,
MIT/LL

FAA Turbulence Product Development Team, Robert Sharman, NCAR

NASA Office of Earth Science Sponsor and Management:

NASA Office of Earth Science, Applications Division Director, Ronald J.
Birk

NASA Aviation Element Manager, John Haynes, NASA ESE, Code YO

NASA Aviation Safety and Security Program Sponsor and Management:

NASA AvSSP Director, George Finelli, NASA LaRC

NASA AvSSP Deputy Director for Aviation Weather, Ron Colantonio, NASA
GRC

NASA AvSSP Weather Accident Prevention Project Manager, Gus Martzaklis,
NASA GRC

NASA AvSSP AWIN Manager, Paul Stough, NASA LaRC

Key Affiliates:

FAA AWRP Director, Gloria Kulesa

NOAA Aviation Weather Services Branch Director, Mark Andrews, NOAA OS&T

THORPEX International Science Steering Committee Co-Chair, Melvyn
Shapiro, NCAR

THORPEX North American Science Steering Committee Co-Chair, David
Parsons, NCAR

Canadian Weather Research Program Director, Jim Abraham, Meteorological
Services Canada

Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Mary Cairns, NOAA

4\. Work Breakdown Structure.

The ASAP Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is delineated in enclosure (1),
which details the ASAP timeline, tasks and deliverables. Figure (2)
illustrates the primary functional components of the WBS and
corresponding FAA AWRP elements. The NASA Office of Earth Science
National Applications Program and the NASA Office of Aeronautics
Aviation Safety and Security Program equally share ASAP sponsorship. It
is administered at the NASA Langley Research Center's Chemistry and
Dynamics Branch under WBS number 23-613-18-01 for funds provided by the
NASA ESE Applications Program and 23-728-40-10 for funds provided by
NASA Aviation Safety and Security Program.

![](media/image4.wmf){width="5.780555555555556in"
height="3.627083333333333in"}

Figure 2. ASAP WBS

**[ASAP Implementation]{.underline}**

5\. Approach

The ASAP implementation approach utilizes basic research, testing ,
evaluation, v&v, benchmarking and technology transfer through a series
of tasks outlined in enclosure (1) and appendix 1. The acquisition of
ASAP research is primarily through the current NASA Langley Research
Center's Atmospheric Science Research and Technology Transfer (ASRATTS)
contract with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC),
Inc. ASAP tasks are sub-contracted by SAIC to the various laboratories
identified in this plan and research is administered by the ASAP team
through regular review of enclosure (1), routine meetings and regularly
scheduled teleconferences.

6\. Deliverables

There are a significant number of research deliverables, primarily
comprising algorithm development and case study reports delineated in
enclosure (1). The primary ASAP deliverable in FY2004 is an IPDB
benchmark of ASAP Icing Algorithms with the NWS operational Current
Icing Product (CIP).

7\. Schedule & Milestones

During 2003, the first implementation year of ASAP, in addition to
beginning basic research activities certain studies and other major
milestones were completed that significantly assisted the successful
conduct ASAP activities in 2004. These are:

> ASAP Paper Presentation, AIAA Annual meeting, Reno, NV (Jan 7, 2003)
>
> ASAP Satellite Icing Product Support to FAA IIPDT and GRC Icing
> Flights
>
> ASAP Paper and Poster Session, AMS, Long Beach, CA (Feb 9-13, 2003)
>
> Pacific THORPEX Observing System Test (Feb 18 -- Mar 12, 2003)
>
> ASAP Benefits Analysis Delivered March 31, 2003
>
> ASAP Benefits Analysis Presentation at FAA AWRP Offices (May 29, 2003)

ASAP Satellite Icing Paper, SAE Icing Conference (June 17, 2003)

ASAP Exhibit, EAA Airventure, Oshkosh, WI, (July 29 -- August 4, 2003)

Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign Planning Meeting, Montreal, (Sep 8-9,
2003)

Enclosure (1), the project's Gantt chart, provides a detailed schedule
of activities and planned dates of deliverables. The following
milestones for 2004 are derived from enclosure (1):

ASAP Presentation, NBAA Meeting, Orlando, FL (October 5-8, 2003)

Atlantic THORPEX Regional Campaign (November 17 -- December 17, 2003)

Alliance Icing Research Study II (November 17 -- December 17, 2003)

2^nd^ International Volcanic Ash Symposium Sponsorship (June 21-24,
2004)

IPBD Benchmark of ASAP Icing Product with FAA/NWS CIP (June 30, 2004)

In addition, the ASAP research team is publishing peer-reviewed papers
and present invited papers and posters regarding these activities at
science meetings and conferences during 2004 and 2005.

8\. Budget

  ------------------------------- ----------------- ------------------ ------------------
  **Funding Plan**                ** **             ** **              ** **

  **Project Breakdown by Task**   **Totals**        **23-613-18-01**   **23-728-40-10**

  Icing                           \$359,000         \$188,500          \$170,500

  Convection                      \$377,000         \$165,000          \$212,000

  Ceiling & Visibility            \$242,000         \$160,000          \$82,000

  Oceanic Weather                 \$369,000         \$256,500          \$112,500

  Turbulence                      \$330,000         \$220,000          \$110,000

  AvSSP Support Holdback          \$313,000         \$0                \$313,000

  **Totals**                      **\$1,990,000**   **\$990,000**      **\$1,000,000**

  ** **                           ** **             ** **              ** **

  **Project Breakdown by Target** **Totals**        **23-613-18-01**   **23-728-40-10**

  LaRC Cloud Group Direct         \$275,000         \$220,000          \$55,000

  Other Labs via ASRATSS          \$1,275,000       \$700,000          \$575,000

  Travel, Equipment, Admin, Etc.  \$127,000         \$70,000           \$57,000

  AvSSP Support Holdback          \$313,000         \$0                \$313,000

  **Totals**                      **\$1,990,000**   **\$990,000**      **\$1,000,000**

  ** **                           ** **             ** **              ** **

  **Project Breakdown by WBS**    **Totals**        **Obligated**      **Pending**

  23-613-18-01 Research Tasks     \$920,000         \$100,000          \$820,000

  23-613-18-01 Travel, Admin,     \$70,000          \$0                \$70,000
  Etc.                                                                 

  23-728-40-10 Research Tasks     \$630,000         \$630,000          \$0

  23-728-40-10 Travel, Admin,     \$57,000          \$0                \$57,000
  Etc.                                                                 

  23-728-40-10 IFMP Holdback      \$313,000         \$313,000          \$0

  **Totals**                      **\$1,990,000**   **\$1,043,000**    **\$947,000**

  Revised 4/7/2004                                                      
  ------------------------------- ----------------- ------------------ ------------------

Table 1. ASAP Budget and Funding Plan.

Total funds provided by the NASA ESE Applications Program and the NASA
Aviation Safety and Security Program comprise \$1,990,000. Table (1) is
germane. These funds are apportioned in accordance with table (1) to
support the research activities delineated in enclosure (1), which
details the timeline for ASAP plan tasks and deliverables. The plan
anticipates the same level of funding in FY05. In FY06 ASAP the second
phase of the NASA Aviation Safety and Security Program will be
implemented and ASAP is planned for upgrade to Level III status under
the currently planned Satellite Data for Real-Time Aviation Weather
Products Project. AvSSP funding is planned to increase to the \$2.5M
range for the five-year period of AvSSP Phase II from FY06 through FY10.
The NASA ESE role in this effort is planned for renegotiation but is
unscheduled at this time.

9\. Exit Strategy/Project Termination

The project is progressing as planned and assesses that it is
completable under its current scope. Thus, early termination is not
currently planned. The current exit strategy is as follows:

-   To complete the IPBD icing benchmark in by June 30, 2004 and
    transition NASA ASAP algorithms to the CIP in 2005 utilizing the FAA
    Aviation Weather Technology Transfer (AWTT) process.

-   To transfer satellite detection methodologies for volcanic ash to
    the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology for delivery
    to worldwide Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers beginning in FY05.

-   To complete the remainder of FY05 tasks in preparation for ASAP
    research and technology transfer activities to be conducted from
    FY06 through FY10 under Phase II of the NASA Aviation Safety and
    Security Program.

-   To deliver an AvSSP ASAP Phase I final report to the NASA Office of
    Earth Science Applications Program and the NASA Aviation Safety
    program before the end of FY05.

**[ASAP Performance Measures]{.underline}**

10\. Project Control Measures.

Beginning in FY2004, the project will conduct an annual review under the
joint auspices of the NASA Office of Earth Science and the NASA Office
of Aeronautics. That review will entail the assessment of the following:

-   IPBD Benchmarks

-   Budget management

-   Completion of tasks

-   Preparation and receipt of deliverables

-   Technology transfer status (as applicable)

-   Solicited information as required.

**Appendix 1.**

**Benchmarking CIP and NASA Langley Satellite Products For Future
Upgrades**

Joint Project of NCAR, CIMMS and NASA LaRC

Revised Outline 040416

[Goal]{.underline}: To assess current capabilities of the Current Icing
Potential (CIP) and NASA LaRC GOES-Derived Cloud Products (GDCP) in
diagnosing inflight aircraft icing conditions

[Specific questions to be addressed]{.underline}

-   What are the current PODs (y/n), areas and volumes covered, and
    efficiencies of the products?

-   How well do the products diagnose expected icing severity?

-   What weather scenarios do the products handle well? Poorly?

-   Where could GDCP provide greatest benefit through incorporation into
    CIP?

[Task 1:]{.underline} PIREP-based verification of CIP and Satellite
Products

[Task 2:]{.underline} Anecdotal verification of selected cases using
research aircraft data

[Task 3:]{.underline} Preliminary examples of linked products

**Task 1**

Icing PIREPs will be used to verify the accuracy of CIP and satellite
icing products using methods already established by the IFIPDT.

Verification period: October 2003 through March 2004

Verification time: 1500 and 2100 UTC

Statistics: PODy, PODn, area covered, volume covered, efficiency
Verification volume: CONUS from surface to 18,000 ft

Products: CIP, CIP severity (MOG), NASA Severity, Liquid water path,
cloud phase, effective radius, cloud top and base heights, NCAR
satellite icing product

[Actions]{.underline}

1.  Cory will put all CONUS PIREPS for the verification period on a cd
    and send to Pat Minnis

2.  Cory and Scott will gather CIP likelihood and severity fields for
    the validation period and times

3.  Julie will prepare GDCP comparison data for verification from data
    sets supplied by Pat Heck of CIMSS

4.  Mike Chapman will run the statistics on the data sets prepared by
    Cory, Scott and Julie

5.  Julie, Cory, Pat Minnis and Marcia will ponder the results and write
    a report

6.  The group will write up the results for one of the upcoming
    conferences (AMS ARAM or SatMet) and or *GRL*

**Task 2**

Recent field research program data will be used to examine selected
cases and provide insight on the behavior of the products.

Projects: AIRS-2, THORPEX, WISP04, NASA GRC icing missions

Products: CIP, CIP severity (MOG), selected GDCPs, RAP satellite product

Data sets: Research aircraft (liquid water content, cloud phase, icing
rate), ground-based radiometer (liquid water path), \[we discussed radar
data as well\]

Study days: 10-11 March (WISP04), 24 November (AIRS-2), 27 November
(AIRS-2), others TBD \[Pat and I have also agreed upon 30 November
(AIRS-2/THORPEX)\]

[Actions]{.underline}

1.  Julie, Cory and Marcia will determine study days based on
    availability of data and preliminary weather and algorithm analysis

2.  Julie will prepare NSP data sets and aircraft data sets

3.  Julie will lead the comparison effort assisted by Scott and Marcia

4.  Julie, Marcia and Pat Minnis will write up the results

5.  The group will write up the results for one of the upcoming
    conferences (AMS ARAM or SatMet) and/or *GRL*

**Task 3**

CIP output will be combined with one or more NASA satellite products to
simulate an integrated product and predict benefits.

Based on the results of Tasks 1 and 2, CIP output fields will be
modified by NASA Satellite output fields to produce an enhanced version
of CIP. For this task only a few cases will be done with very
rudimentary combining techniques to demonstrate potential benefits.

Example days: Chosen from Task 1 and Task 2 analyses

[Actions]{.underline}

1.  Cory, Julie and Marcia will determine one or more methods to combine
    the CIP output files with NSP files to demonstrate improvement in
    CIP.

2.  Cory and Mike will use PIREPs to quantify improvements

3.  Julie and Marcia will use research aircraft data for a more
    qualitative assessment of improvement

4.  Marcia, Julie, Cory and Pat Minnis will provide recommendations for
    melding the NSP with the CIP

Staff, Roles and Contact Information

  ------------- ------------------------------ ------------------ -------------
  NCAR          Role                           \_@ucar.edu        \(303\) 497-

  Mike Chapman  PIREP verification             mchapman           8371

  Julie         Satellite data reformatting,   haggerty           1090
  Haggerty      analysis and interpretation,                      
                aircraft data analysis                            

  Dave Johnson  Satellite data formats, ASAP   Djohnson           8370
                management                                        

  Scott Landolt Data processing and analysis,  landolt            2804
                radiometer data sets                              

  Marcia        Aircraft data analysis, data   marcia             8449
  Politovich    interpretation, project                           
                oversight, case selection                         

  Cory Wolff    CIP data set processing and    cwolff             2845
                analysis, PIREP processing,                       
                case selection                                    

  NASA          []{.mark}                      \_@larc.nasa.gov   

  Dave Doelling []{.mark}                      d.v.doelling       

  Pat Minnis                                   p.minnis           

  Louis Nguyen  []{.mark}                      []{.mark}          []{.mark}

  CIMMS                                                           

  Pat Heck                                                        

                []{.mark}                      []{.mark}          []{.mark}
  ------------- ------------------------------ ------------------ -------------

We the undersigned have reviewed and accept this document as the NASA
Office of Earth Science Aviation Applications Program, Aviation Element,
Advanced Satellite Aviation-weather Products Project Plan.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

John J. Murray Date

ASAP Manager

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Steven A. Ambrose Date

Aviation Element Manager, Acting