A 15 Percent National Renewable Electricity Standard Will Save Consumers
Money and Reduce Global Warming Emissions

A national renewable electricity standard would require electric
utilities to supply a minimum percentage of their electricity from
renewable sources such as wind, solar, geothermal, and bioenergy.[^1]
Similar policies have already been enacted in 22 states and Washington,
DC.

The U.S. Senate has passed a 10 percent by 2020 national renewable
electricity standard three times since 2002---most recently in June
2005. Congress has also considered a national standard of 20 percent by
2020.

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) used the Energy Information
Administration's (EIA) National Energy Modeling System computer model to
examine the costs and benefits of a 15 percent by 2020 national
standard. We made no changes to EIA's model despite the fact that they
use higher cost and more pessimistic performance assumptions for most
renewable energy technologies compared with recent experience and
projections by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy, and National Renewable Energy
Laboratory.[^2] Our analysis found that a 15 percent national standard
would provide significant consumer and environmental benefits for
America. A 20 percent standard would likely yield even greater
benefits.![](media/image4.wmf){width="3.329861111111111in"
height="2.2111111111111112in"}

Consumer Savings

Nationally, the 15 percent renewable standard would save consumers
\$16.3 billion on their electricity and natural gas bills by 2030.[^3]
Natural gas, therefore, costs less for electricity generation, as well
as for other purposes, benefiting both electricity consumers and other
natural gas consumers. All sectors of the economy would benefit, with
commercial, industrial, and residential customers' total savings
reaching \$8.0 billion, \$5.0 billion, and \$3.3 billion, respectively.

A national renewable electricity standard increases the use of renewable
energy and reduces the demand for fossil fuels, creating new competitors
for the fuel sources that currently dominate the U.S. electricity mix.
As a result, renewable energy helps reduce the price of fossil fuels and
restrain the ability of fossil fuel prices to increase in the future.

Under the 15 percent by 2020 national standard, average consumer natural
gas prices would be lower than business as usual in every year of the
forecast, with an average annual reduction of 0.8 percent. Average
consumer electricity prices would be slightly lower than business as
usual in nearly every year of the forecast, with an average annual
reduction of 0.3 percent.

Energy Diversity

Renewable energy diversifies the energy portfolio by meeting a larger
portion of U.S. electricity demand under a 15 percent national standard.
Our analysis found that America would increase its total homegrown
renewable power capacity 4.5 times over present levels---from about
20,000 megawatts (MW) in 2005 to 90,000 MW by 2030. This development
would come primarily from America's strong bioenergy, wind, solar, and
geothermal resources, and would provide enough power to serve the needs
of more than 80 million typical U.S. homes. Increasing fuel diversity
with domestic, renewable sources makes the U.S. economy less vulnerable
to potential energy supply shortages, interruptions, and price
volatility and
manipulation.![](media/image5.wmf){width="3.2805555555555554in"
height="1.9972222222222222in"}

Public Health and Environmental Protection

Increased renewable energy use would reduce toxic air pollution from
power plants that threaten people's health by burning coal, oil, and
natural gas. It would also reduce carbon dioxide (CO~2~) emissions,
which cause global warming by trapping heat in the atmosphere. The 15
percent national standard will reduce CO~2~ emissions by nearly 200
million metric tons per year by 2020---a reduction of seven percent
below "business-as-usual levels", equivalent to taking 32.4 million cars
off the road. And by reducing the need to extract, transport, and
consume fossil fuels, a national renewable electricity standard would
limit the damage done to our water and land and conserve our natural
resources for future
generations.![](media/image6.wmf){width="3.3965277777777776in"
height="2.113888888888889in"}

A Cleaner, Safer Energy Future

A national renewable electricity standard would make America's energy
supply more reliable and secure. It would use local energy sources to
put energy dollars back into the pockets of consumers. A 15 percent
national renewable electricity standard is a common-sense step away from
our dependence on an unstable, dirty fossil fuel supply, and toward a
future built on clean, renewable energy.

For more information, visit the UCS website at:
[**www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy**](http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy).

May 2007

[^1]: The renewable electricity standard is also known as a renewable
    portfolio standard or RPS.

[^2]: For more information about NEMS' capabilities, structure, and
    assumptions visit http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html.

[^3]: Results are presented in cumulative net present value 2005\$ using
    a seven percent real discount rate.