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height="0.23958333333333334in"}

**FLORIDA**

**Citrus October Forecast**

**October 12, 2005**

> **ALL ORANGES 190.0 MILLION BOXES**
>
> The 2005-06 Florida orange forecast, released today by the USDA
> Agricultural Statistics Board, is 190.0 million boxes, over 40 million
> boxes or 27 percent more than last season's hurricane-reduced crop. If
> realized, this forecasted crop would be only the third season since
> 1993-94 to fall below 200 million boxes. This season, the drastic
> losses of bearing trees to citrus canker disease are having a
> significant downward influence on potential production. The forecast
> is divided into the early-midseason-Navel portion at 93.0 million
> boxes (including 5.0 million Navels) and the Valencia portion at 97.0
> million. If attained, this season will be the first in which Valencia
> production exceeds the early-midseason-Navel portion. A description of
> procedures used for all forecasts appears on page six of this release.
>
> Excluding last season, the previous 10 seasons' October forecast of
> all oranges differed from final utilization by an average of 3.9
> percent. The differences range from 9.4 percent below in 1999-00 to
> 7.5 percent above in 2000-01. Five of the seasons were above and five
> below final production.
>
> A special tree census survey conducted after the hurricanes of 2004
> updated the 2004 Commercial Citrus Inventory for six counties: DeSoto,
> Hardee, Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie. Additional
> work in other counties aided in estimating attrition rates. Bearing
> trees for this forecast were estimated using this information with
> attrition rates applied to all counties. Losses from the hurricanes,
> citrus tristeza, urban development, and especially citrus canker have
> been substantial. If actual losses of trees due to canker finds in the
> fall and winter are higher than anticipated, the difference may affect
> this estimate of bearing trees. Based upon these losses, estimated
> bearing tree numbers could be revised during the season.
>
> Bearing tree numbers used in the forecast totaled 69.3 million, down
> over 5 percent from last season's adjusted 73.0 million and 8 percent
> from the 2003-04 season's 75.4 million. This season's bearing tree
> numbers include trees planted in 2002 and earlier. Prior to including
> the 1.7 million 2002 plant date trees, the change in bearing trees
> from last season is 7 percent while the change from the 2003-04 season
> is 10 percent.
>
> Weather conditions in Florida's citrus growing regions have been
> variable since the hurricanes of 2004. Dryer weather prevailed in the
> winter months with no cold temperatures experienced. The bloom period
> was about three to four weeks later than normal. Maturity test results
> reported on pages three and four reflect lagging internal maturity.
> Fruit sizes are very small, also reflecting later maturity. Rainfall
> amounts set records in June with several low pressure systems bringing
> varying amounts of rain.

**FCOJ YIELD 1.58 GALLONS PER BOX**

The initial all orange FCOJ yield projection is 1.58 gallons per box of
42 degrees Brix concentrate. This is near last season's final yield of
1.58311 but above the previous two. The record high yield of 1.63381
gallons occurred in the 1998-99 season. A separate projection for fruit
in the early-midseason and late categories will be made in the January
release. Further details appear on pages three and four.

**EARLY-MIDSEASON-NAVEL 93.0 MILLION BOXES**

The early-midseason-Navel forecast is 93.0 million boxes, 18 percent
more than last season's hurricane-reduced 79.1 million, but 26 percent
less than the 2003-04 season utilization of 126.0 million boxes. Record
production is 140.0 million boxes in the 1997-98 season.

Excluding Navels, 29.4 million bearing trees were used in the
expansions, down 5 percent from last season's adjusted 30.8 million
trees. Adjustments to the Commercial Census Inventory from the special
survey conducted after the hurricanes of 2004 reduced the estimate of
bearing trees for the 2004-05 season by 1.2 million. This season's
bearing trees include trees planted in 2002 and earlier. The record high
for tree numbers was reached in the 1998-99 season at over 37 million
trees.

The average fruit per tree for this season at 1,076 is 21 percent higher
than last season's average but 12 percent less than the 2003-04 season.
The Central production area of the State has the highest average fruit
per tree and, together with the Western area, represents 63 percent of
the total fruit population. The early portion, mostly Hamlins,
represents 87 percent of the early-mid fruit population.

Average fruit size in September is the smallest recorded since the
series began in 1960. August sizes were not the smallest, indicating a
very slow rate of growth. Projected fruit per box at harvest, at 284,
indicates the smallest fruit in many seasons. Fruit droppage is below
the average of the 1994-95 to 2003-04 series and is projected to be
below average at harvest.

**NAVEL ORANGES 5.0 MILLION BOXES**

The Navel forecast is 5.0 million boxes, twice the amount produced in
the hurricane-reduced 2004-05 season. Record production of 6.4 million
boxes was reached in the 1996-97 season. The forecast includes an
allocation of 800,000 boxes for non-certified and gift fruit. A high
proportion of the crop is used for fund-raising events and gift fruit
shipments.

Estimated bearing trees total 1.8 million. Tree numbers have been
declining since the 1996-97 season. The average fruit per tree at 522 is
the highest in over 10 seasons. Average fruit per box at harvest is
estimated at 139, indicating small fruit but not the smallest in the
series. Fruit droppage is very low for this time of year and is
projected to be below average at harvest. Limited harvest has started.

**VALENCIA ORANGES 97.0 MILLION BOXES**

The Valencia forecast at 97.0 million boxes is over 26 million boxes or
38 percent more than last season's 70.5 million boxes harvested. The
record harvest of this type was in the 2003-04 season when 116.0 million
boxes were harvested.

The bearing tree numbers estimate, at 38 million, is down over two
million and is 6 percent less than the 2004-05 revised bearing trees.
The highest bearing tree numbers recorded was in the 2002-03 season.
Bearing tree numbers for this season include those planted in 2002 and
earlier.

Average fruit per tree at 692 is very high, reflecting the maturation of
the many trees planted in the decade of the 1990s. It is even higher
than the fruit per tree average of 680 in the 2003-04 record production
season. The Southern and Central production areas of the State each
contain 32 percent of the fruit population and with the Western area
represent over 90 percent.

As with early-midseason oranges, average fruit sizes are very small. A
very low rate of growth was observed during September and fruit per box
at harvest is projected at 220. Droppage observed from August to
September was slightly below average and is projected to be slightly
below average at harvest. Projections of fruit size and droppage may be
altered as the growing season progresses and could affect the size of
harvest.

**TEMPLES 900,000 BOXES**

The Temple forecast of 900,000 boxes, if realized, will be 38 percent
more than last season's hurricane-reduced crop, but otherwise is the
lowest amount since forecasting Temples separately for the 1951-52
season. Bearing tree numbers continue to decline, down 12 percent from
last season and 26 percent from 2003-04. Average fruit per tree at 820
is 56 percent more than last season, but is 65 less than the 10-season
average prior to the 2004‑05 season. Droppage is expected to be slightly
below average for the season. Average fruit sizes are below normal and
the fruit growth rate indicates smaller than average fruit at harvest.

**TANGELOS 1.4 MILLION BOXES**

The estimated tangelo harvest of 1.4 million boxes is down 10 percent
from last season's utilization of 1.55 million boxes. Except for last
season's hurricane-reduced crop of 1.0 million boxes, this season is
expected to be the smallest since 1965-66. Bearing trees are down by 7
percent from last season. Average fruit per tree at 781 is higher than
nine of the past 10 seasons. Compared to the 10 seasons of 1994-95 to
2003-04, average fruit size at harvest is expected to be smaller than
any season. Fruit droppage over the last month was slightly below
average and is expected to remain so until harvest.

+------------------------------------------------+---------------------+
| **[Expected Gift Fruit Shipments Under the     |                     |
| 6-R]{.smallcaps}**                             |                     |
|                                                |                     |
| **[Program, and Non-Certified Usage, 2005-06   |                     |
| Season]{.smallcaps}**                          |                     |
+------------------------------------------------+---------------------+
| Type                                           | 1,000 boxes         |
+------------------------------------------------+---------------------+
| Early and Midseason Oranges                    | 1,800               |
+------------------------------------------------+---------------------+
| Valencia Oranges                               | 1,000               |
+------------------------------------------------+---------------------+
| White Grapefruit                               | 200                 |
+------------------------------------------------+---------------------+
| Colored Grapefruit                             | 500                 |
+------------------------------------------------+---------------------+
| Temples                                        | 50                  |
+------------------------------------------------+---------------------+
| Tangelos                                       | 200                 |
+------------------------------------------------+---------------------+
| Tangerines                                     | 300                 |
+------------------------------------------------+---------------------+

+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| **[Florida            |          |          |          |           |
| C                     |          |          |          |           |
| itrus]{.smallcaps}**: |          |          |          |           |
| Distribution of       |          |          |          |           |
| estimated fruit       |          |          |          |           |
| population in         |          |          |          |           |
| September by areas    |          |          |          |           |
| and age groups ^1/^   |          |          |          |           |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Areas                 | Oranges  |          |          |           |
|                       |          |          |          |           |
| and                   |          |          |          |           |
|                       |          |          |          |           |
| age groups            |          |          |          |           |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
|                       | Early -  |          | Valencia |           |
|                       | M        |          |          |           |
|                       | idseason |          |          |           |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
|                       | 2004-05  | 2005-06  | 2004-05  | 2005-06   |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
|                       | *- -     |          |          |           |
|                       | P        |          |          |           |
|                       | ercent - |          |          |           |
|                       | -*       |          |          |           |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Indian River District | 3        | 3        | 6        | 6         |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Northern              | 6        | 8        | 3        | 3         |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Central               | 27       | 31       | 32       | 32        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Western               | 28       | 32       | 21       | 27        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Southern              | 36       | 26       | 38       | 32        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| 3 - 5 years           | 4        | 4        | 6        | 3         |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| 6 - 8 years           | 4        | 5        | 7        | 10        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| 9 - 13 years          | 20       | 12       | 26       | 18        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| 14 - 23 years         | 54       | 55       | 45       | 49        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| 24 yrs & over         | 18       | 24       | 16       | 20        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Areas                 | Seedless |          |          |           |
|                       | Gr       |          |          |           |
| and                   | apefruit |          |          |           |
|                       |          |          |          |           |
| age groups            |          |          |          |           |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
|                       | White    |          | Colored  |           |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
|                       | 2004-05  | 2005-06  | 2004-05  | 2005-06   |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
|                       | *- -     |          |          |           |
|                       | P        |          |          |           |
|                       | ercent - |          |          |           |
|                       | -*       |          |          |           |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Indian River District | 34       | 68       | 33       | 58        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Northern              | 1        | 1        | 5        | 4         |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Central               | 25       | 17       | 11       | 16        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Western               | 3        | 3        | 3        | 2         |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| Southern              | 37       | 11       | 48       | 20        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| 3 - 5 years           | 2        | 1        | 2        | 1         |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| 6 - 8 years           | 4        | 4        | 4        | 3         |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| 9 - 13 years          | 20       | 20       | 39       | 22        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| 14 - 23 years         | 38       | 34       | 41       | 49        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| 24 yrs & over         | 36       | 41       | 14       | 25        |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+
| ^1/^ Distribution of  |          |          |          |           |
| fruit population in   |          |          |          |           |
| September as          |          |          |          |           |
| determined by         |          |          |          |           |
| multiplying average   |          |          |          |           |
| fruit per tree from   |          |          |          |           |
| the Limb Count Survey |          |          |          |           |
| by bearing age trees. |          |          |          |           |
| ^2/^ Less than one    |          |          |          |           |
| percent.              |          |          |          |           |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+-----------+

![](media/image3.png){width="3.329861111111111in"
height="4.416666666666667in"}![](media/image4.wmf){width="3.5in"
height="5.0in"}

<table style="width:100%;">
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 18%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11"><p><strong><span class="smallcaps">Unadjusted Maturity
Tests</span></strong>: Average of regular bloom fruit from sample</p>
<p>groves, 2004-05 and 2005-06 seasons</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td rowspan="2"><p>Fruit type</p>
<p>(No. groves)</p>
<p>test date</p></td>
<td colspan="2">Acid</td>
<td colspan="2"><p>Solids</p>
<p>(Brix)</p></td>
<td colspan="2">Ratio</td>
<td colspan="2"><p>Unfinished juice</p>
<p>per box</p></td>
<td colspan="2"><p>Solids</p>
<p>per box</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>2004-05</td>
<td>2005-06</td>
<td>2004-05</td>
<td>2005-06</td>
<td>2004-05</td>
<td>2005-06</td>
<td>2004-05</td>
<td>2005-06</td>
<td>2004-05</td>
<td>2005-06</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td rowspan="2"> </td>
<td colspan="2"><em>Percent</em></td>
<td colspan="2"><em>Percent</em></td>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td colspan="2"><em>Pounds</em></td>
<td colspan="2"><em>Pounds</em></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="10"><em>Juice and solids per box are unadjusted and not
comparable to plant test results.</em></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="11"><strong><span
class="smallcaps">Oranges</span></strong>:</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11"><blockquote>
<p>Early (120-118)</p>
</blockquote></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Sep 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.62</td>
<td>1.82</td>
<td>9.31</td>
<td>9.31</td>
<td>5.85</td>
<td>5.19</td>
<td>42.42</td>
<td>39.24</td>
<td>3.95</td>
<td>3.65</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Oct 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.08</td>
<td>1.34</td>
<td>9.27</td>
<td>9.42</td>
<td>8.73</td>
<td>7.16</td>
<td>48.40</td>
<td>44.78</td>
<td>4.49</td>
<td>4.21</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="11"><blockquote>
<p>Mid (53-55)</p>
</blockquote></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Sep 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.80</td>
<td>1.98</td>
<td>9.02</td>
<td>9.10</td>
<td>5.11</td>
<td>4.66</td>
<td>42.08</td>
<td>39.48</td>
<td>3.79</td>
<td>3.59</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Oct 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.26</td>
<td>1.51</td>
<td>9.01</td>
<td>9.40</td>
<td>7.26</td>
<td>6.33</td>
<td>49.93</td>
<td>45.34</td>
<td>4.50</td>
<td>4.26</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11"><blockquote>
<p>Late (144-150)</p>
</blockquote></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Sep 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
<td>NA</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Oct 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>2.43</td>
<td>2.60</td>
<td>8.64</td>
<td>9.02</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.51</td>
<td>46.50</td>
<td>43.07</td>
<td>4.02</td>
<td>3.88</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="11"><strong><span
class="smallcaps">Grapefruit:</span></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11"><blockquote>
<p>White Seedless (45-50)</p>
</blockquote></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Sep 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.70</td>
<td>1.77</td>
<td>9.55</td>
<td>9.91</td>
<td>5.62</td>
<td>5.61</td>
<td>32.97</td>
<td>29.61</td>
<td>3.15</td>
<td>2.93</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Oct 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.42</td>
<td>1.54</td>
<td>9.24</td>
<td>9.87</td>
<td>6.54</td>
<td>6.42</td>
<td>38.87</td>
<td>36.13</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.56</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="11"><blockquote>
<p>Colored Seedless (48-50)</p>
</blockquote></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Sep 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.66</td>
<td>1.77</td>
<td>9.74</td>
<td>10.13</td>
<td>5.87</td>
<td>5.73</td>
<td>33.96</td>
<td>30.39</td>
<td>3.31</td>
<td>3.08</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><blockquote>
<p>Oct 1</p>
</blockquote></td>
<td>1.37</td>
<td>1.52</td>
<td>9.45</td>
<td>10.12</td>
<td>6.94</td>
<td>6.65</td>
<td>40.29</td>
<td>37.12</td>
<td>3.81</td>
<td>3.75</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="11">NOTICE: All samples were run through an FMC 091 machine
using mechanical pressure only. This machine utilizes a .040 short
strainer and standard 5/8-inch orifice tube. The beam settings are also
identical to past tests and no restrictors are used.</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

**MATURITY**

Results of the second maturity tests of the 2005-06 season for all but
the late oranges, which were tested for the first time, are to the left.
Samples tested are from groves on routes which cover all five major
citrus producing areas.

Sample size for all types has remained constant for the past several
seasons. The grapefruit sample size is 100 at the start of this season,
which includes 50 samples each for the white and colored seedless types.

Samples were collected September 26-27 and tested at the Orlando
laboratory of the Florida Agricultural Statistics Service. Only regular
bloom fruit is collected and tested.

Rainfall in the early summer months has been excessive in all areas.
September rainfall was generally below average. Lower interior and
coastal areas have received more than the upper interior.

Acid levels are the highest since 1999-00. Brix levels are higher than
last season but in line with several previous seasons for early and
midseason oranges. Late (Valencia) oranges have the highest Brix in the
nine season series. Grapefruit acid and Brix levels are higher than last
season at this time.

The ratio of solids to acid is low reflecting the high acid levels.
Juice levels are the lowest in the series and reflect the later bloom
period. Indications are that maturity levels in general are three to
four weeks behind normal.

Some fresh fruit packers opened in late September. Varieties being
shipped include Navel oranges, early tangerines, and grapefruit.

+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| **[Maturity    |       |        |        |       |         |        |
| Test Averages  |       |        |        |       |         |        |
| by Areas,      |       |        |        |       |         |        |
| October 1,     |       |        |        |       |         |        |
| 2005]          |       |        |        |       |         |        |
| {.smallcaps}** |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| Fruit type     | G     | Acid   | Solids | Ratio | Unf     | Solids |
|                | roves |        | (Brix) |       | inished | per    |
|                | sa    |        |        |       | juice   | box    |
|                | mpled |        |        |       | per box |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
|                | *Nu   | *Pe    | *Pe    | * *   | *       | *P     |
|                | mber* | rcent* | rcent* |       | Pounds* | ounds* |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| **[Oranges:]   |       |        |        |       |         |        |
| {.smallcaps}** |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Early        |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Indian River | 9     | 1.42   | 9.36   | 6.69  | 44.11   | 4.13   |
| > Dist.        |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Other Areas  | 109   | 1.33   | 9.43   | 7.20  | 44.83   | 4.22   |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Midseason    |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Indian River | 10    | 1.70   | 9.28   | 5.50  | 44.77   | 4.15   |
| > Dist.        |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Other Areas  | 45    | 1.47   | 9.42   | 6.52  | 45.47   | 4.28   |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Late         |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Indian River | 26    | 2.58   | 8.88   | 3.45  | 42.84   | 3.80   |
| > Dist.        |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Other Areas  | 124   | 2.60   | 9.05   | 3.52  | 43.12   | 3.90   |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| *              |       |        |        |       |         |        |
| *[Grapefruit]{ |       |        |        |       |         |        |
| .smallcaps}:** |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > White        |       |        |        |       |         |        |
| > Seedless     |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Indian River | 38    | 1.58   | 9.95   | 6.32  | 35.86   | 3.57   |
| > Dist.        |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Other Areas  | 12    | 1.44   | 9.61   | 6.72  | 37.01   | 3.56   |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Colored      |       |        |        |       |         |        |
| > Seedless     |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Indian River | 40    | 1.55   | 10.16  | 6.57  | 36.67   | 3.72   |
| > Dist.        |       |        |        |       |         |        |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+
| > Other Areas  | 10    | 1.44   | 9.97   | 6.96  | 38.91   | 3.88   |
+----------------+-------+--------+--------+-------+---------+--------+

**ALL GRAPEFRUIT 24.0 MILLION BOXES**

The total Florida all grapefruit crop is forecast at 24.0 million boxes,
88 percent more than last season's recorded utilization of 12.8 million
boxes. With the exception of last season's crop, this grapefruit crop is
forecasted to be the lowest since the 22.3 million boxes in the 1944-45
season. The total is comprised of 7.0 million boxes of white grapefruit
and 17.0 million boxes of colored varieties.

+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| **[Grape              |          |          |          |          |
| fruit]{.smallcaps}**: |          |          |          |          |
| 2004-05 production    |          |          |          |          |
| and a proration of    |          |          |          |          |
| the                   |          |          |          |          |
|                       |          |          |          |          |
| 2005‑06 forecasts     |          |          |          |          |
| based on fruit        |          |          |          |          |
| populations, by       |          |          |          |          |
| production areas ^1/^ |          |          |          |          |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| Production Area       | 2004-05  |          | 2005-06  |          |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|                       | White    | Colored  | White    | Colored  |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
|                       | *- - -   |          |          |          |
|                       | 1,000    |          |          |          |
|                       | b        |          |          |          |
|                       | oxes - - |          |          |          |
|                       | -*       |          |          |          |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| Indian River          | 1,200    | 3,600    | 4,700    | 9,900    |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| Southern              | 900      | 4,100    | 800      | 3,400    |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| Other                 | 1,300    | 1,700    | 1,500    | 3,700    |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| ^1/^ The possible     |          |          |          |          |
| differences between   |          |          |          |          |
| growing areas,        |          |          |          |          |
| concerning average    |          |          |          |          |
| fruit size, loss from |          |          |          |          |
| droppage, and harvest |          |          |          |          |
| patterns, can alter   |          |          |          |          |
| the prorated          |          |          |          |          |
| estimates.            |          |          |          |          |
+-----------------------+----------+----------+----------+----------+

A special tree census was conducted in six counties. Tree losses due to
the hurricanes in those counties, canker, citrus tristeza virus, urban
development and normal attrition statewide, resulted in an estimated 27
percent fewer grapefruit trees than in 2003-04.

+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| **[Citrus          |          |           |           |            |
| Producti           |          |           |           |            |
| on]{.smallcaps}**: |          |           |           |            |
| October 1, 2005    |          |           |           |            |
|                    |          |           |           |            |
| forecasts by       |          |           |           |            |
| varieties and      |          |           |           |            |
| states, with       |          |           |           |            |
| comparisons        |          |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| Crop and State     | Pr       |           |           | Forecast   |
|                    | oduction |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
|                    | 2002-03  | 2003-04   | 2004-05   | 2005-06    |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
|                    | *- - -   |           |           |            |
|                    | 1,000    |           |           |            |
|                    | b        |           |           |            |
|                    | oxes - - |           |           |            |
|                    | -*       |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| [Grapef            |          |           |           |            |
| ruit]{.smallcaps}: |          |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > **FLORIDA**-All  | **       | *         | *         | **24,000** |
|                    | 38,700** | *40,900** | *12,800** |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > **White**        | **       | *         | **3,400** | **7,000**  |
|                    | 16,200** | *15,900** |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > **Colored**      | **       | *         | **9,400** | **17,000** |
|                    | 22,500** | *25,000** |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > Texas            | 5,650    | 5,700     | 6,600     | 5,400      |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > Arizona          | 130      | 140       | 140       | 120        |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > California       | 5,600    | 5,800     | 5,800     | 5,800      |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| Total Grapefruit   | 50,080   | 52,540    | 25,340    | 35,320     |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| [Le                |          |           |           |            |
| mons]{.smallcaps}: |          |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > California       | 24,000   | 18,000    | 19,000    | 19,000     |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > Arizona          | 3,000    | 3,000     | 2,400     | 3,800      |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| Total Lemons       | 27,000   | 21,000    | 21,400    | 22,800     |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| Temples:           | *        | **1,400** | **650**   | **900**    |
| **Florida**        | *1,300** |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| Tangelos:          | *        | **1,000** | **1,550** | **1,400**  |
| **Florida**        | *2,350** |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| [Tanger            |          |           |           |            |
| ines]{.smallcaps}: |          |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > **FLORIDA**-All  | *        | **6,500** | **4,450** | **6,000**  |
|                    | *5,500** |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > Early ^1/^       | *        | **3,600** | **2,450** | **3,500**  |
|                    | *3,000** |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > Honey            | *        | **2,900** | **2,000** | **2,500**  |
|                    | *2,500** |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > California ^2/^  | 2,800    | 2,200     | 2,800     | 3,200      |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| > Arizona ^2/^     | 430      | 690       | 400       | 500        |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| Total Tangerines   | 8,730    | 9,390     | 7,650     | 9,700      |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+
| ^1/^ Fallglo and   |          |           |           |            |
| Sunburst           |          |           |           |            |
| varieties.         |          |           |           |            |
|                    |          |           |           |            |
| ^2/^ Includes      |          |           |           |            |
| tangelos and       |          |           |           |            |
| tangors.           |          |           |           |            |
+--------------------+----------+-----------+-----------+------------+

Except for last season, the **white** category at 7.0 million boxes is
projected to be the lowest in over 80 years. White grapefruit bearing
trees used in this forecast are estimated to have declined by almost 16
percent from last season's revised tree numbers and 29 percent from two
seasons ago. The average fruit per tree is less than in any season in
the 10-season series from 1994-95 through 2003-04. Current fruit sizes
are below average, but the rate of growth measured in the last month's
survey indicates that final sizes will be slightly above average. Loss
from droppage is expected to be slightly above average.

The forecast of **colored** varieties at 17.0 million boxes is 81
percent more than last season. Excluding the 2004-05 season, it is the
lowest since the 1989-90 season. Bearing trees are estimated to be
almost 17 percent less than last season's revised tree numbers and 26
percent less than 2003-04 bearing tree numbers. The average fruit per
tree compared to the 10 previous seasons, prior to 2004-05, is higher
than two seasons and lower than eight seasons. Fruit droppage is
projected to be slightly above average, while sizes are projected to
remain below average.

**ALL TANGERINES 6.0 MILLION BOXES**

The forecast of all tangerines is 6.0 million boxes, up 35 percent from
last season's 4.45 million harvested boxes. This forecast is 14 percent
less than the record production of 7.0 million boxes in the 1999-00
season. The forecast is made up of **early** varieties (**Fallglo** and
**Sunburst)** at 3.5 million boxes and **Honey** tangerines at 2.5
million.

**Fallglo** bearing trees are estimated at 290,200 this season compared
to last season's 317,000. Fruit per tree at 723 is 60 percent more than
the 9-season average prior to last season. Average fruit size is close
to the minimum of a 9-season series from 1995-96 through 2003-2004. It
is estimated it will take only 248 fruit to make a box compared to 205
last season. Droppage rates remain about normal at 14 percent. Harvest
has started on this variety and will continue into early December.

**Sunburst** tangerines comprise the majority of the early category.
Bearing trees at 1.155 million, have been declining steadily since the
1996-97 season. Average fruit per tree at 1,092 is higher than any of
the past 10 seasons. The droppage rate is expected to fall in the
mid-range of recent seasons. Average fruit size is small and the past
month's rate of growth indicates that sizes will be below the minimum of
the last 10 seasons and a box at harvest is expected to contain 362
fruit compared to last season's 311.

The **Honey** tangerine forecast at 2.5 million boxes is 25 percent more
than the 2.0 million boxes harvested last season and equal to the third
highest production ever. Fruit per tree at 994 is higher than any of the
past 10 seasons. Bearing tree numbers at 1.235 million are the lowest
since the 1997-98 season. Average fruit sizes are close to the minimum
of a 10-season series from 1994-95 to 2003-2004 and are expected to be
smaller than normal at harvest. Droppage is also projected to be below
average.

**FORECAST PROCEDURES FOR THE 2005-06 SEASON**

All citrus forecasts are based on actual fruit counts and measurements.
These objective count methods utilize: (1) the bearing age tree
population provided from the latest aerial photography with field
verifications, (2) the average fruit per tree obtained from the fruit
count survey using randomly selected trees and limbs, and (3) the fruit
measurement and fruit drop count surveys to determine fruit sizes and
loss from fruit droppage.

The latest Commercial Citrus Inventory, including the post-hurricanes
update published September 16, 2005, is the base used to determine
forecast tree numbers for this season. All trees planted in 2002 and
earlier are included. Trees identified by the Citrus Canker Eradication
Program through September that are scheduled to be removed have been
taken out of the bearing trees used in the expansions.

The same unbiased fruit count procedures were used as in past seasons.
This season, because of limited and restricted access in some areas, not
all pre-selected samples were visited. In addition, there was heavy
removal of canker infected trees in the summer months, which resulted in
a seven percent reduction in the intended sample size.

Fruit size surveys were conducted in August and September. The fruit
loss surveys (drop count) were begun in August. These surveys, along
with historical records, were used to project the fruit size at harvest
and the fruit population that is expected to remain on trees at harvest.

The chart below describes the relationship of the September 2005 early
and midseason orange (excluding Navels) fruit size measurements with
those taken in September 2004. The diameter measurements shown are the
minimum values of each eighth inch range, except for the smallest
values.

**[Fruit Size]{.smallcaps}**: Early and midseason oranges (excluding
Navels) size frequency by diameter from September
measurements![](media/image5.wmf){width="3.720833333333333in"
height="3.475in"}

Size frequency distributions developed from the September size survey
are shown in the following table. The distributions are by percent of
fruit falling within the size range of each 4/5-bushel container. These
frequency distributions relate to fruit from regular bloom and exclude
summer bloom in all years.

+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| **[Florida Citrus]{.smallcaps}**:   |          |         |         |
| Size frequency distributions        |          |         |         |
|                                     |          |         |         |
| from September measurements         |          |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| Type of fruit and size              | 2003     | 2004    | 2005    |
|                                     |          |         |         |
| in 4/5-bushel containers            |          |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
|                                     | *- - -   |         |         |
|                                     | Per      |         |         |
|                                     | cent - - |         |         |
|                                     | -*       |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| [Early and midseason                |          |         |         |
| oranges]{.smallcaps}:               |          |         |         |
|                                     |          |         |         |
| > (excluding Navels)                |          |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
|                                     |          |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 64 and larger                     | 0.6      | 0.2     | 0.0     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 80                                | 4.8      | 1.3     | 0.4     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 100                               | 20.0     | 8.2     | 3.7     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 125                               | 36.0     | 27.9    | 13.0    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 163 and smaller                   | 38.6     | 62.4    | 82.9    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| [Navel oranges]{.smallcaps}:        |          |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 64 and larger                     | 44.3     | 19.7    | 11.0    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 80                                | 35.3     | 34.6    | 29.6    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 100                               | 15.2     | 31.5    | 35.6    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 125                               | 4.3      | 11.4    | 18.3    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 163 and smaller                   | 0.9      | 2.8     | 5.5     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| [Valencia oranges]{.smallcaps}:     |          |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 64 and larger                     | 0.4      | 0.0     | 0.1     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 80                                | 5.3      | 0.6     | 0.4     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 100                               | 24.5     | 7.9     | 3.4     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 125                               | 37.2     | 28.9    | 16.5    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 163 and smaller                   | 32.6     | 62.6    | 79.6    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| [White seedless                     |          |         |         |
| grapefruit]{.smallcaps}:            |          |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 32 and larger                     | 7.9      | 3.1     | 4.2     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 36                                | 9.8      | 8.1     | 7.0     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 40                                | 16.8     | 14.0    | 11.9    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 48                                | 21.7     | 19.1    | 16.7    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 56                                | 13.2     | 16.9    | 14.1    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 63 and smaller                    | 30.6     | 38.8    | 46.1    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| [Colored seedless                   |          |         |         |
| grapefruit]{.smallcaps}:            |          |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 32 and larger                     | 4.0      | 0.9     | 4.3     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 36                                | 7.6      | 5.6     | 4.6     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 40                                | 11.6     | 11.2    | 8.8     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 48                                | 20.8     | 18.5    | 13.4    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 56                                | 18.4     | 17.2    | 13.8    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 63 and smaller                    | 37.6     | 46.6    | 55.1    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| [Fallglo tangerines]{.smallcaps}:   |          |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| >  80 and larger                    | 24.5     | 19.0    | 10.0    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 100                               | 41.4     | 54.0    | 31.6    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 120                               | 12.7     | 22.0    | 21.7    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 176                               | 6.8      | 3.0     | 21.7    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 210 and smaller                   | 14.6     | 2.0     | 15.0    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| [Sunburst tangerines]{.smallcaps}:  |          |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 100 and larger                    | 4.5      | 2.9     | 1.9     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 120                               | 12.2     | 9.8     | 1.9     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 176                               | 15.5     | 9.8     | 2.5     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 210 and smaller                   | 67.8     | 77.5    | 93.7    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| [Tangelos]{.smallcaps}:             |          |         |         |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 80 and larger                     | 9.2      | 0.6     | 0.2     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 100                               | 25.0     | 4.0     | 2.1     |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 120                               | 25.0     | 17.5    | 12.1    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+
| > 156 and smaller                   | 40.8     | 77.9    | 85.6    |
+-------------------------------------+----------+---------+---------+