**Strategic Directions in Seismic Modeling**

***HAZUS Development and Current Applications for Catastrophic
Planning***

**Introduction**

In the early 1990s, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and
the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) embarked on an
initiative to develop a consistent, standardized approach to estimating
losses from earthquakes. In 1997, FEMA released the first HAZUS (Hazards
U.S.) model for earthquakes to "provide state, local, and regional
officials with the tools necessary to plan and stimulate the efforts to
reduce risk from earthquakes and to prepare for emergency response and
recovery from an earthquake."[^1]

Today, HAZUS-MH (multihazards) has evolved into a powerful, GIS-based
risk assessment tool that estimates potential damage and losses from
earthquakes, wind and floods. The latest version -- MR2 -- was released
in June 2006 and incorporates important new enhancements into all three
models. As HAZUS-MH continues to mature, new uses are being identified,
particularly for risk assessment and mitigation.[^2]

The emergence of catastrophic planning as a national priority under the
Department of Homeland Security and FEMA presents a unique opportunity
to "harness" the capabilities of HAZUS-MH as a regional loss estimation
tool. This paper presents an approach to fully integrating the HAZUS-MH
Earthquake Model into FEMA's catastrophic planning initiative, with
specific recommendations on model enhancements that will strengthen this
national planning effort.

The paper offers a new vision of catastrophic planning that integrates
risk assessment and risk reduction with response and recovery planning.
The rationale is that preparedness to respond to a major or catastrophic
incident is in large part a function of the resiliency[^3] and capacity
of our nation's emergency management system -- including essential
facilities and lifelines (transportation and utilities) -- to support
response and recovery missions. Simply put, if emergency services,
medical facilities and lifelines are not available or have limited
capacity to support response, then our nation's operational capability
is undermined. As a regional loss estimation tool, HAZUS-MH can both
quantify losses from hazard events, and quantify losses avoided through
mitigation, and in the process show the role of mitigation in
catastrophic planning.

The paper is organized into five sections: 1) HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model
Overview; 2) Use of HAZUS-MH to Support Catastrophic Planning; 3) Use of
HAZUS-MH to Link Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Disaster Response; 4)
Utilization of a Web-based Data Management Portal System; and 5)
Conclusions.

**I. HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model Overview**

HAZUS-MH is a regional loss estimation tool that enables the user to
perform a wide range of analyses, from simplified estimates that require
minimal input to refined calculations of building damage and loss of
functionality. As reflected in Figure 1, the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model
utilizes a modular approach to estimating hazard, building and lifelines
damage and losses, induced physical damage, direct and indirect economic
losses, and social losses. Because data in the earthquake model is
aggregated at

the census tract level in all 50 states, loss estimates can be generated
at virtually any scale.

One of the strengths of the methodology is the ability to generate and
display GIS-based maps at multiple scales, a feature that is very useful
in catastrophic planning. The model incorporates a comprehensive,
national inventory of building stock, essential facilities, lifelines
and hazard data that can be enhanced by the user, as discussed in a
subsequent section of this paper.

One of the main components of the HAZUS-MH earthquake methodology is the
estimates of the probability of various states of structural and
non-structural damage to buildings. Damage state probabilities are used
by other components of the methodology to estimate various types of
building loss, social and economic losses. Typically, buildings are
grouped by occupancy and model building type and evaluated on a census
tract basis.

![](media/image1.wmf){width="4.645833333333333in"
height="2.9722222222222223in"}

**Figure 1. HAZUS-MH Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology**

Buildings are grouped into 33 specific occupancies and 36 model building
types (and for various combinations of seismic design level and
performance) with users having the flexibility to add more model
building types.

To summarize, the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model incorporates a flexible,
standardized, modular loss estimation methodology that can be used in
multiple ways to assess damage and loss from earthquakes. In April,
2006, the Earthquake Model was successfully used to estimate and display
earthquake damage and loss to a 19 county region in the San Francisco
Bay Area from a repeat of the 1906 earthquake. The following section
highlights the findings of a study on the current state of practice in
catastrophic planning in the U.S., and presents a strategy for using
HAZUS-MH to enhance planning and preparedness for catastrophic
earthquakes.

**II. Use of HAZUS-MH to Support Catastrophic Planning**

[Catastrophic Planning: A National Priority]{.underline}

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the Bush administration elevated
catastrophic planning[^4] as a national priority. In a speech in New
Orleans following Katrina, President Bush directed the Secretary of the
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to undertake a review of emergency
and catastrophic plans in the 50 states and 75 urban areas in the United
States.

The *Nationwide Plan Review: Phase 2 Report,* released on June 16, 2006,
identifies multiple "areas of relative weakness", measured by the level
of action taken by the 50 states and 75 urban areas to develop and
sustain preparedness capabilities for catastrophic incidents.
Fundamentally, the report concludes that catastrophic planning as
practiced in the nation is flawed. As stated in the report: "Current
catastrophic planning is unsystematic and not linked within a national
planning system. This is incompatible with 21^st^ century homeland
security challenges, and reflects a systematic problem: outmoded
planning processes, products, and tools are primary contributors to the
inadequacy of catastrophic planning."[^5]

[Use of HAZUS-MH to Address Gaps in Catastrophic Planning]{.underline}

The *Nationwide Plan Review: Phase 2 Report* identifies several key gaps
in the catastrophic planning process, several of which can be addressed
in part through the use of HAZUS-MH. Examples of specific weaknesses are
highlighted below, with observations on how HAZUS-MH analysis can used
to address these weaknesses.

-   Few Emergency Operations Plans (EOPs) address the consequences of
    catastrophic disasters (p. 14). *HAZUS-MH outputs (see Figure 3) are
    uniquely adapted to functional planning under the "Emergency Support
    Function" (ESF) system in the National Response Plan (NRP). Several
    state, notably California, have made significant progress in using
    HAZUS-MH analysis to "scale mission requirements" for earthquake
    response. The catastrophic planning initiative provides an
    opportunity to standardize HAZUS-MH outputs for ESF planning under
    the NRP.*

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-   Assumptions in Basic Plans do not adequately address catastrophic
    incidents (p. 63). *In large part, assumptions flow from an
    understanding of the consequences of hazards on buildings, lifelines
    and the population. One of the unique features of the HAZUS-MH
    Earthquake Model is the ability to demonstrate -- both qualitatively
    and quantitatively -- the consequences of major or catastrophic
    earthquakes.*

-   Shelter needs and shelter capacity for catastrophic disasters need
    to be identified and quantified, and statewide plans developed (p.
    26). *The shelter module is among the most reliable in HAZUS-MH (in
    model validation studies, actual shelter requirements match up well
    with estimated requirements). To support catastrophic planning, the
    Earthquake Model can be used to estimate the number and distribution
    of displaced households and shelter requirements, and also
    characterize the population at risk.*

-   The plans do not compare projected, quantified needs and listed
    resources that are needed for an effective emergency response (p.
    18). *The ability to estimate damage and loss of functionality with
    HAZUS-MH enables users to identify and quantify resource
    requirements that are needed for scenario events.*

[Integrating HAZUS-MH into the National Incident Management System
(NIMS)]{.underline}

Preparations for and response to a catastrophic disaster are guided by
National Incident Management System, issued by the Department of
Homeland Security on March 1, 2004 to provide a comprehensive and
consistent national approach to all-hazard incident management at all
jurisdictional levels and across functional disciplines. Key to using
HAZUS-MH to support catastrophic planning is the ability to fully
integrate the HAZUS technology and HAZUS-MH team into the Planning
Section under the NIMS.

A key feature of NIMS is the Incident Command System (ICS), which
comprises five functional areas: Command, Operations, Planning,
Logistics, and Finance and

Administration. The ICS organizational structure is modular, extending
to incorporate all elements necessary for the type, size, scope, and
complexity of a given incident. The HAZUS-MH team should become an
integral part of the Planning Section under the Incident Command System,
and provide analysis (pre- and post-disaster) on potential consequences
of scenario earthquakes on the building stock, essential facilities,
lifelines, and population.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="4.126388888888889in"
height="3.0833333333333335in"}

**Figure 2. Use of HAZUS-MH in the Incident Command System**

The systematic application of HAZUS-MH for catastrophic planning should
be guided by two basic tenets:

1.  *Priorities for the application of HAZUS-MH need to be established
    by the user of the analysis (e.g., Command staff and Planning
    Section), with full understanding of the limitations and
    uncertainties of the model outputs.* Experience in the use of
    HAZUS-MH for disaster operations continues to reinforce the
    importance of a user driven approach, including training of
    decision-makers in the potential uses of HAZUS-MH analysis to
    support decisions.

2.  *Technical oversight in the use of HAZUS-MH is critical to the
    effective use of the model for impact assessment and
    decision-support.* In using HAZUS-MH for a major, damaging
    earthquake, it is important that technical oversight be provided,
    preferably by a team HAZUS-MH specialists with domain knowledge of
    the earthquake hazard, the loss estimation methodology, and model
    outputs.

[Planning for a Catastrophic Earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic
Zone]{.underline}

In 2006, FEMA announced the administration's intentions to implement a
5-year catastrophic planning initiative -- funded at approximately \$20
million -- to better prepare the nation for the consequences of
catastrophic disasters. The first scenario to be addressed is a
catastrophic earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ).

The NMSZ catastrophic planning initiative can provide an important
national platform to demonstrate the capabilities of HAZUS-MH. Figure 3
highlights key HAZUS-MH outputs that can be used -- for pre-disaster
planning and post-disaster assessment and response -- in a national
catastrophic planning initiative.

+--------------------------------------+-------------------------------+
| ![](media/ima                        | **Potential Applications of   |
| ge3.wmf){width="3.296527777777778in" | HAZUS-MH to Support           |
| height="4.029166666666667in"}        | Catastrophic Planning in      |
|                                      | NMSZ**                        |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | **Rapid Needs Assessment &    |
|                                      | Response:**                   |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | -   *Area of impact* from     |
|                                      |     ground shaking and        |
|                                      |     liquefaction.             |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | -   *Population at risk,*     |
|                                      |     including estimates of    |
|                                      |     casualties, displaced     |
|                                      |     households, and           |
|                                      |     short-term shelter        |
|                                      |     requirements.             |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | -   Damage and loss of        |
|                                      |     functionality to          |
|                                      |     *essential facilities*    |
|                                      |     (fire, police, hospitals, |
|                                      |     schools, emergency        |
|                                      |     operations centers)       |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | -   Damage and loss of        |
|                                      |     functionality to          |
|                                      |     *transportation system*,  |
|                                      |     including bridges         |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | -   Estimates of *economic    |
|                                      |     losses*                   |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | -   Potential *search and     |
|                                      |     rescue* missions          |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | **Recovery Planning:**        |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | -   Estimates of *debris* (by |
|                                      |     category)                 |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | -   Loss Ratios               |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | -   Estimates of *residential |
|                                      |     damage*                   |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | -   Estimates of *commercial  |
|                                      |     damage*                   |
|                                      |                               |
|                                      | -   Estimates of *business    |
|                                      |     interruption*             |
+--------------------------------------+-------------------------------+

**Figure 3. Potential Applications of HAZUS-MH to Support Catastrophic
Planning in the New Madrid Seismic Zone**

In the context of a New Madrid scenario, there are several important
applications of HAZUS-MH to support catastrophic planning. Some of these
applications require enhancements to the Earthquake Model. Two potential
uses with high potential value to the NMSZ planning effort are
highlighted below.

1.  Use of HAZUS-MH to identify and quantify the population in the study
    region with disabilities, defined by the Americans with Disabilities
    Act (ADA) as a broad range of people, including individuals who use
    wheelchairs or have other mobility disabilities; individuals who are
    blind or have low vision; individuals who are deaf, hard of hearing,
    or deaf-blind; as well as individuals with cognitive disabilities,
    psychiatric conditions, serious respiratory conditions, or other
    physical or mental impairments that substantially limit life
    activities. According to the 2000 Census, nearly 29% of American
    families include at least one person with a disability (FEMA,
    *Nationwide Plan Review*). As individuals with disabilities continue
    to live more independently and are more integrated into society,
    substantial improvement is necessary to integrate people with
    disabilities in emergency planning and readiness.[^6]

> Acknowledging that special needs populations have significantly
> greater difficulties in coping with the consequences of disasters, the
> ability to incorporate this subset of the population into HAZUS-MH
> inventory and analysis would be an important contribution to emergency
> management planning.

2.  Use of HAZUS-MH to estimate damage and loss of functionality to
    essential facilities. From a federal and state perspective, an
    "essential element of information" following a major disaster is the
    availability and functionality of hospitals and emergency services
    facilities and systems. A fundamental question becomes -- when is it
    necessary for the federal government or state government to perform
    basic health and public safety services for an extended period of
    time because local government has become the victim and there is no
    capacity to perform essential services?

> Planning for a catastrophic New Madrid earthquake provides an
> opportunity to "push the envelope" in estimating the availability of
> essential facilities and lifelines -- before and after a scenario
> event -- and integrating this analysis into NIMS and the National
> Response Plan. This initiative should consider the following: 1)
> incorporation of HAZUS-MH analysis into training with Planning Section
> and Command staff under the NIMS, with emphasis given to treatment of
> uncertainties; 2) creation of standardized HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model
> analysis templates which can be used in training and disaster
> operations; 3) use of grid cells[^7] (e.g., census blocks) in
> aggregating data to improve resolution and increase accuracy of
> analysis; and 4) expansion of essential facility attribute data that
> is found in the HAZUS-MH inventory (e.g., bed capacity for hospitals),
> to include information for each essential facility that can be used by
> emergency managers in characterizing these facilities. Attribute data
> to be considered: updated contact information, specialized services or
> capabilities offered by the facility, and specialized resources that
> can be accessed.
>
> ![](media/image4.wmf){width="2.5069444444444446in"
> height="1.8840277777777779in"}![](media/image5.wmf){width="2.9375in"
> height="2.2083333333333335in"}

**Figure 4. Use of Grid Cells to Aggregate Data in South Carolina**

> There is one major advantage to using HAZUS-MH to support analysis of
> damage and loss of functionality to essential facilities (and other
> analyses) -- the model incorporates a national, uniform, standardized
> inventory of essential facilities, which is critical for multi-state
> analyses. The use of a uniform approach to assessing damage states of
> essential facilities promotes consistency in the use of the Earthquake
> Model from one state or Federal Region to another.

To summarize, HAZUS-MH is a unique, nationally applicable loss
estimation tool that can make a significant contribution to catastrophic
planning and disaster response. As a regional loss estimation model, the
strength and relative accuracy of HAZUS-MH matches well with analysis
that is most needed immediately after an earthquake, including: area of
impact; exposure and damage to essential facilities; quantification of
population exposed to the earthquake hazard; estimates of shelter
requirements; and identification and mapping of areas with moderate to
high probability of search and rescue mission requirements (due to high
concentrations of unreinforced masonry structures and other vulnerable
buildings).

**III. Use of HAZUS-MH to Link Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Disaster
Response**

FEMA's catastrophic planning initiative presents an opportunity to
re-examine our nation's approach to planning for and responding to
hazard events (natural, technological or human caused) that generate
extraordinary casualties, damages and economic disruption. In the final
analysis, the ability of our society to respond to and recover from
these events -- including a catastrophic earthquake -- is in large part
a function of the disaster *resilience* of our population and the built
environment (buildings, systems, infrastructure) that supports our daily
routines at home and the workplace.

Investments in stronger buildings, better prepared populations, and
disaster resilient lifelines will reduce the burden on government at all
levels to respond to major disasters.

In essence, mitigation should become an integral component of the
catastrophic planning equation. In this context, HAZUS-MH can become an
important tool in assessing losses avoided through the adoption of
specific mitigation measures for buildings and lifelines, as outlined in
Table 1.

An initiative to use HAZUS-MH to systematically integrate mitigation
into the catastrophic planning process should include the following
elements:

1.  Formation of a multidisciplinary advisory team with expertise in the
    HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model (including the Advanced Earthquake
    Building Module), seismic/structural engineering, building-specific
    damage and loss functions, and functional planning under the
    National Incident Management System.

> The objective is to provide a forum for HAZUS-MH specialists with
> domain knowledge of the Earthquake Model and its uncertainties, and
> key users of the analysis for catastrophic planning for earthquakes.
> This initiative should be coordinated with: 1) The Infrastructure
> Security Partnership (TISP) and the Task Force on Regional Disaster
> Resilience; and 2) the Multihazard Mitigation Council (MMC).[^8]

2.  Selection of three pilot sites -- California, the Central U.S, and
    Utah's Wasach Front -- to evaluate and document the use of the
    HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model to support catastrophic earthquake
    planning, and specifically the value of investing in vulnerability
    reduction measures to increase response and recovery capacities.

3.  Collaboration with the FEMA catastrophic planning team to identify
    "most critical" of essential facilities relative to capacity to
    respond to a major earthquake.

> The ability of state and local government to effectively respond to a
> catastrophic disaster will be a function in large part of the
> availability of hospitals, public health departments, emergency
> response agencies, shelters and other facilities in the "emergency
> management system." The objective of this task is to systematically
> identify and prioritize facilities and systems that -- by virtue of
> their role and function in urban or regional response to a
> catastrophic earthquake -- are most critical. Collection of this
> information, which can be incorporated into the HAZUS-MH inventory,
> should involve federal, state and local emergency managers.

4.  To add a display feature to the existing library of capacity curves
    and fragility curves for the Earthquake Model to enable planners,
    engineers and others to assess potential losses from earthquakes
    based on the properties of a specific building type.

> The HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model, for example, enables the user to view
> building damage functions for all model building types. The model
> displays graphs of the probabilities of four different damage states
> for buildings, contents, or combined ratios for each wind building
> type as a function of peak gust wind.
>
> A similar display feature for the library of building loss curves for
> the Earthquake Model would be an excellent reference for HAZUS-MH
> users and emergency managers. A user-friendly collection of building
> loss curves would provide decision-makers with a readily available
> reference in identifying most vulnerable structures at specified
> levels of ground shaking, and to use this information in
> prioritization of mitigation measures.
>
> A library of building loss curves also needs to address the
> vulnerability of buildings and lifelines to ground deformation. This
> aspect of the HAZUS-MH Earthquake Model needs to be updated in light
> of the extensive engineering work completed at the Nation's earthquake
> engineering centers and under National Science Foundation programs. In
> addition, the body on knowledge associated with vulnerability of the
> built environment to ground deformation in a catastrophic earthquake
> is relatively small compared to the body of research of the
> interaction of ground motions and the built environment. The level of
> research that assesses ground deformation influences is out of balance
> with the large contribution to losses, functionality, and utility and
> transportation impacts as a result of ground deformation in scenario
> earthquakes.

+----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| **Damage/Loss Categories**       | **Benefits**                      |
+----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| > **Physical Damage**            | > Avoided physical damages        |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Buildings                    |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Contents                     |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Infrastructure               |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Landscaping                  |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Site contamination           |                                   |
+----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| > **Loss of Function / Economic  | > Avoided costs associated with   |
| > Impacts**                      | > loss of function                |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Loss of business income      |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Loss of Rental income        |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Lost wages                   |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Shelter costs                |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Disruption time for          |                                   |
|     residents                    |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Loss of public services      |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Economic impacts associated  |                                   |
|     with loss of transportation  |                                   |
|     and utility functions        |                                   |
+----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| > **Casualties**                 | > Avoided casualties              |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Deaths                       |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Injuries                     |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Illnesses                    |                                   |
+----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+
| > **Emergency Management Costs** | > Avoided costs associated with   |
|                                  | > emergency services and cleanup  |
| -   Emergency Operations Center  |                                   |
|     costs                        |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Evacuation / Rescue costs    |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Debris removal and cleanup   |                                   |
|     costs                        |                                   |
|                                  |                                   |
| -   Temporary measures costs     |                                   |
+----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+

**Table 1. Damage/Loss Categories and Benefits from Mitigation**

5.  Identification and prioritization of mitigation measures to enhance
    the functionality of essential facilities and in the process
    increase the capacity of federal, state and local governments to
    respond to major or catastrophic earthquakes.

> Ultimately, the goal of this initiative is to provide federal, state
> and local emergency managers with: 1) HAZUS-MH inventory of "most
> critical" of essential facilities that are instrumental to urban
> and/or regional response to a major earthquake or other catastrophic
> disaster; 2) HAZUS-MH analyses that quantifies losses avoided as a
> result of the implementation of mitigation measures for high value
> essential facilities; and 3) analysis of enhancements to local and
> state capacity to respond as a result of the implementation of
> mitigation measures. The analysis should follow the functional
> approach (Emergency Support Functions or ESFs) to planning that is
> incorporated into the National Response Plan, including:

-   Transportation (ESF #1)

-   Communications (ESF #2)

-   Public Works and Engineering (ESF #3)

-   Firefighting (ESF #4)

-   Mass Care, Housing and Human Services (ESF #6)

-   Public Health and Medical Services(ESF #8)

**IV. Utilization of Web-based Data Management Portal System**

Although HAZUS-MH was not originally developed as an emergency response
tool, important developments have occurred since the 1994 Northridge
earthquake to integrate the HAZUS-MH methodology with real-time
information technologies to provide decision support following a
earthquake (Eisner, 2000). The California Office of Emergency Services
has developed an interface between HAZUS-MH and ShakeMap, a web-based
application that provides shaking intensity and ground motion in near
real-time. This interface provides the California OES with a rapid,
accurate and useful set of data for emergency response.

In the Central and Eastern U.S., where soil and other conditions
contribute to a seismic hazard that extends over a much broader region,
a different approach to data management and the use of HAZUS-MH is being
contemplated. A proposed HAZUS-MH Web-based Data Management Portal
System is guided by the following objectives:

1.  To identify, prioritize and incorporate new datasets for User
    Defined Facilities that will provide a significantly more robust
    HAZUS-MH inventory. South Carolina, for example, has identified 14
    additional categories of facilities and demographic data that the
    Emergency Management Division intends to add to the existing
    statewide HAZUS-MH inventory. These datasets will significantly
    improve risk assessment and planning in high risk coastal areas of
    the state.

2.  To develop a data management system for HAZUS-MH that enables the
    user to place default and Level 2 inventory data in existing
    web-based portals for designated users. This will facilitate access
    to the data from multiple HAZUS-MH users (including State and local
    governments), and enable users to update the inventory data on a
    routine basis.

3.  To refine the HAZUS-MH data management system to enable users to
    download and distribute pre-built study regions to federal, state
    and local governments to facilitate and expedite post-earthquake
    analysis of damages and losses. This capability is critical to the
    use of HAZUS-MH for earthquake impact assessment and response
    planning in the Central and Eastern U.S. Options include the
    development of a library of "HAZUS-MH runs" for a range of scenarios
    that can be accessed by FEMA and impacted states following an actual
    earthquake, and used to estimate casualties, damages and losses.

4.  To prepare and test standard operating procedures for uploading,
    downloading, and managing HAZUS-MH datasets and analyses for
    disaster operations.

5.  To incorporate the HAZUS-MH Web-based Data Management Portal System
    into the Planning Section under the Incident Command System, and to
    utilize this capability during disaster exercises. The objective is
    to ultimately institutionalize the use of HAZUS-MH for risk
    assessment and emergency management planning.

6.  To train HAZUS-MH users to use this system to quickly assess damages
    and losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes.

When fully implemented, the proposed HAZUS-MH data management system
will provide planners and decision makers with a unique capability for
risk assessment and response planning. In the process, the system will
address some of the key issues identified in the *Nationwide Plan
Review.*

**Conclusions**

HAZUS-MH has two core features that make the model totally unique: 1)
the national inventory of building stock, lifelines, essential
facilities and population that enable the user to characterize the
exposure of our 50 states to earthquakes, hurricanes and flood hazards;
and 2) the capability to quantify damage and losses over a multi-state
area. There is an unprecedented opportunity to apply the HAZUS-MH
Earthquake Model and the enhancements that are outlined in this paper to
support the catastrophic planning initiative. In assessing and
prioritizing the potential uses of HAZUS-MH, a useful starting point is
the findings of the *Nationwide Plan Review,* an excellent baseline
study that identifies significant problems, issues and deficiencies in
catastrophic planning in the 50 states and 75 urban areas.

Finally, the Mitigation Directorate -- in coordination with the National
Institute of Building Sciences -- can play an important role in
supporting the FEMA's catastrophic planning initiative through the use
of HAZUS-MH. An understanding of the performance of essential facilities
and lifelines in earthquakes, and the role of mitigation in reducing
building damage and loss of functionality, can become an important
dimension in the catastrophic planning program. The Mitigation
Directorate can take the lead in demonstrating the return on investment
in mitigation, expressed as the increase in federal, state, and local
government capacity to respond and recover from major or catastrophic
disasters. HAZUS-MH can become an important tool in this effort.

**REFERENCES**

Applied Technology Council. [Guidelines for Using Strong-Motion Data and
ShakeMaps in Post-Earthquake Response, ATC-54]{.underline}*.* Redwood
City, California. 2003.

Federal Emergency Management Agency. [Nationwide Plan Review: Phase 2
Report.]{.underline} Washington, DC: FEMA, 2006.

National Institute of Building Sciences. [A Guide to Using HAZUS for
Mitigation.]{.underline} Washington, DC: NIBS, 2003.

National Institute of Building Sciences, Multihazard Mitigation Council.
[Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: An Independent Study to Assess the
Future Savings from Mitigation Activities]{.underline}. Washington, DC:
2005.

Goltz, James and Richard Eisner. [Real-Time Emergency Management
Decision Support: The California Integrated Seismic Network
(CISN).]{.underline}

Federal Emergency Management Agency and National Institute of Building
Sciences. [HAZUS-MH MR1 Technical Manual]{.underline}*.* Washington, DC:
Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2003.

Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. [Managing Risk in Earthquake
Country*. *]{.underline} publication of the 100^th^ Anniversary
Earthquake Conference -- 1906 San Francisco Earthquake. San Francisco:
2006.

U.S. Department of Justice. [An ADA Guide for Local Governments: Making
Community Emergency Preparedness and Response Programs Accessible to
People with Disabilities]{.underline}. Washington, DC: 2004.

American Society of Civil Engineers, The Infrastructure Security
Partnership. [Regional Disaster Resilience: A Guide for Developing an
Action Plan.]{.underline} Washington, DC: 2006.

**Authors**

Tom Durham, PBS&J, is the principle author of this paper. He has a long
association with HAZUS, dating back to 1995 when he served as the
Executive Director of the Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium.

This paper was reviewed by Pushpendra Johari, HAZUS-MH Software
Developer, PBS&J, and Doug Bausch, Mitigation Specialist with FEMA
Region VIII, who has assumed a leadership role for FEMA in several
projects that use HAZUS-MH.

[^1]: FEMA and NIBS. [HAZUS-MH MR1 Technical Manual]{.underline}.
    Washington, DC: FEMA, 2003.

[^2]: FEMA. [HAZUS Progress and Utilization Report for Fiscal Year
    2004.]{.underline} Washington, DC: FEMA, 2006.

[^3]: The need for a *regional disaster resilience* strategy is the
    focus of a report that was released in June, 2006 by The
    Infrastructure Security Partnership (TISP). *Regional Disaster
    Resilience: A Guide for Developing an Action Plan*, provides
    stakeholders with a comprehensive set of guidelines for improving
    regional preparedness from natural, technological and man-made
    hazards.

[^4]: Catastrophic disasters are defined as *any natural or manmade
    incident, including terrorism, that results in extraordinary levels
    of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the
    population, infrastructure, environment, economy, national morale,
    and/or government functions* (Department of Homeland Security,
    *Nationwide Plan Review: Phase 2 Report,* June 16, 2006).

[^5]: Ibid, page viii.

[^6]: Department of Homeland Security/FEMA, *Nationwide Plan Review*,
    2006, p. 41.

[^7]: Wyoming and South Carolina are among the states that have used a
    grid cell (2 kilometer x 2 kilometer) approach to aggregating data
    -- as opposed to aggregating by census tract -- which improves
    resolution of analysis, addresses the "large census tract issue" (in
    large census tracts, analysis can appear distorted),

[^8]: The MMC, a council of the National Institute of Building Sciences
    (NIBS), completed a landmark study, *Natural Hazard Mitigation
    Saves: An Independent Study to Assess the Future Savings from
    Mitigation,* which used HAZUS-MH to estimate direct property damage
    from earthquakes and hurricanes, and used these estimates to
    determine future losses avoided through mitigation.