# ![](media/image1.png){width="0.875in" height="0.6083333333333333in"}United States 

**Department of**

**Agriculture**

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

Circular Series

WAP 08-04

August 2004

**India's Rice Supplies Forecast Lower for 2004/05**

# India: Rice Production Forecast Decreased on a Dry July

The 2004/05 Indian rice crop is forecast at 83.0 million tons, down 7.0
million or 8 percent from last month and down 3.4 million or 4 percent
from last year. ![](media/image2.png){width="3.8958333333333335in"
height="3.4166666666666665in"} Area is forecast at 43.5 million
hectares, down 1.0 million hectares or 1 percent from last month and
down 0.5 million or 1 percent from last year. Rice area and yield
potential have been lowered due to dry conditions in growing areas
resulting in delayed and reduced sowings. The production forecast is
revised downward based on poor monsoon performance in the major growing
areas of north and central India and floods in east and northeast India.

After a mostly dry July, there has been a significant revival in the
monsoon activity during the first week of August, with areas of the
severely moisture-stressed regions in west, north, and central India
receiving copious rains. According to the Government of India, the
recent rains have cut the cumulative rainfall deficit for the entire
country to 10 percent, down from 15 percent in late July. Although the
recent rain will prove beneficial for the standing rice crop, it is
still unclear whether this would result in a significant revival of the
planting operations of rice, as typically the optimal window of
opportunity for planting closes by the end of July. Late planting will
depend on the availability of short-duration variety seeds. Any rice
sown later than normal will likely incur a reduction in yield. (*For
more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 203-690-0135.*)

# Bangladesh: Rice Production Forecast Decreased on a Wet July

The 2004/05 Bangladesh rice crop is forecast at 25.5 million tons, down
1.0 million or 4 percent from last month and down 0.5 million or 2
percent from last year. Area is forecast at 10.7 million hectares, down
0.4 million hectares or 4 percent from last month and down 0.2 million
or 2 percent from last year. Rice area and yield potential have been
lowered due to flood conditions in growing areas resulting in delayed
sowings and loss of nursery areas. Although the recent heavy rains have
abated, the full effect of widespread flooding will necessitate the
reestablishment and transplanting of a portion of the Aman crop, which
is the second-crop season. The Aman crop accounts for 44 percent of
total production. Flooding may have resulted in damage to the Aman rice
nurseries; however, there is still time for replanting. The Aus crop,
which is the first-crop season, accounts for 7 percent of Bangladesh's
rice crop and experienced some loss due to the heavy rains during
harvesting. The third rice crop, or Boro crop, is unaffected by the
floods as planting occurs much later in the season. (*For more
information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 203-690-0135.*)

##### China: Favorable Weather Boosts 2004/05 Corn Yield

China's 2004/05 corn production is estimated at 120.0 million tons, up 5
million or 4 percent from last month. Estimated area is unchanged this
month at 23.3 million hectares, but down 0.5 million or 2 percent from a
year ago. A planting survey by the Ministry of Agriculture last spring
forecast corn area to drop by more than 2 percent in 2004/05, but other
sources now suggest that corn area could match or be slightly higher
than last year. The government announced several incentives this spring
to encourage more grain production in 2004/05, including tax cuts and
direct subsidies, and farmers may have responded by planting more summer
corn and less cotton and soybeans than expected. The estimated yield of
5.15 tons per hectare reflects overall favorable weather to date and
will be the highest since 1998/99.

The weather and soil moisture in the Northeast was nearly ideal for
planting and emergence, but hot and dry weather in June may have
stressed corn in western Jilin, Heilongjiang, and eastern Inner
Mongolia. Abundant rainfall and seasonable temperatures in July and
early August alleviated the drought and created very favorable
conditions for reproduction and filling. Corn is now in the filling
stage across the region. On the North China Plain (NCP), planting
conditions for both the spring and summer corn crops were better than
last year. Widespread rainfall since mid-June supplied abundant moisture
for crop development. Crops on the NCP appear to be in very good
condition based on satellite imagery analysis. Based on recent crop
tours in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and the Northeast, the Agricultural
Office in Beijing reported that corn was growing well and yields will
most likely be higher than last year assuming normal weather through
harvest. Corn is now entering the silk-tassel stage on the NCP. *(For
more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133).*

**China: Record Wheat Yield Forecast in 2004/05**

China's 2004/05 wheat production is estimated at 90.0 million tons, up
3.0 million or 3 percent from last month. The revision is based on
higher estimated winter wheat output. Total wheat area is estimated at
21.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 0.5 million
or 2 percent from last year and the lowest area on record. According to
area surveys by the Ministry of Agriculture and other government
sources, winter wheat area dropped by an estimated 2 to 5 percent in
2004. Spring wheat area is also forecast lower in 2004/05 due to low
profits. The estimated yield was raised this month to a record 4.19 tons
per hectare, up 7 percent from last year. Timely spring rainfall, warm
temperatures, and favorable harvest weather contributed to China's
forecast record winter wheat yields this year.

Winter wheat accounts for about 93 to 95 percent of total wheat area and
production. On July 16, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that
China's 2004/05 summer grain output reached 101.05 million tons, up 4.83
million from last year. This estimate is almost 2 million tons higher
than an earlier estimate by the Ministry of Agriculture. Historically,
winter wheat accounts for 85 to 86 percent of summer grain production.
Using these figures, winter wheat production in 2004/05 should reach 86
to 87 million tons. Spring wheat is grown in Northeast and Northwest
China. Harvesting is underway and will be completed in August.
Conditions were drier than normal during the first part of the growing
season but widespread rain since late June improved yield prospects,
especially in Heilongjiang, where officials are forecasting record
yields this year. Spring wheat output is estimated between 4 and 5
million tons in 2004/05. *(For more information, contact Paulette
Sandene at 202-690-0133).*

##### Bumper Crops in Central Europe

##### Summer Crops

Near-ideal weather has continued to bolster central European corn
yields. Rainfall has been above average all season, providing beneficial
soil moisture for summer crops in almost every growing region. July is
the most critical month for corn as it goes through the sensitive
silking stage. This year's crop experienced July temperatures that
averaged about normal, with no periods of extreme heat that could damage
vegetation. Rainfall continued to increase the region's moisture
reserves and the soil moisture supplies should last through late summer,
providing favorable final development of corn and sunflowers. Harvesting
is conducted from September through November. A lack of storage
facilities for the bumper crop appears to be one of the region's largest
concerns.

##### Winter Crops

The wheat harvest, now in its final stages, is also large. High yields
are being recorded across central Europe. Unlike the bitter winter
endured by last year's crop, the 2004/05 crop emerged largely unscathed
from a relatively mild winter. Normal temperatures and frequent rainfall
during spring combined to further enhance yield prospects. Continued
rainfall during summer, however, has made field operations difficult and
has delayed the winter grains harvest by about 2 weeks. While a very
large crop is being realized, the heavy rain has raised concerns about
lodging, and has created concerns about crop quality. According to
sources in the region, however, these problems appear minor. A regional
crop analyst from FAS in Washington is currently traveling through these
countries to assess crop conditions. (*For more information, contact
Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)*

**Russia: High Yields Reported in Key Winter Wheat Region**

The USDA estimates Russia wheat production for 2004/05 at 43.5 million
tons, up 1.0 million or 2 percent from last month and up 9.4 million or
28 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 24.2 million hectares,
against 22.2 million last year. The month-to-month increase in estimated
production is based on reports of outstanding winter wheat yields in
southern Russia, where harvest is largely complete, and high yield
potential in the Volga Valley and Central region, where harvest is still
in progress. Prospects for spring wheat are mixed. Conditions have
improved since last month in Western Siberia, the main production zone,
but local officials are forecasting low yields in parts of the Ural
region due to persistent hot, dry weather during June and July. *(For
more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)*

**Ukraine: Harvest Weather Improves, Above-Average Wheat Crop Forecast**

The USDA estimates Ukraine wheat production for 2004/05 at 16.0 million
tons, up 1.0 million or 7 percent from last month and up 12.4 million or
344 percent from last year, when severe weather destroyed Ukraine's
winter wheat crop and total wheat output plunged to 3.6 million tons.
Wet weather in early July hampered early harvest work in southern
Ukraine, but progress accelerated sharply in late July. According to
data from the State Statistical Committee, the wheat harvest was nearly
60 percent complete by the beginning of August. Yield to date for total
grain (which in early August chiefly reflects wheat and barley yields)
is reported at 3.0 tons per hectare. This nearly matches the bumper-crop
years of 2001/02 and 2002/03, when wheat production reached 21.3 and
20.6 million tons, respectively. Wheat production for 2004/05, however,
is unlikely to approach these levels due to a 17-percent drop in area,
to 5.7 million hectares. *(For more information, contact Mark Lindeman
at 202-690-0143.)*

# France: Rapeseed Output Higher Due to Favorable Weather

Rapeseed production in France for 2004/05 is estimated at 3.7 million
tons, up 7 percent from last month and up 11 percent from last year.
Favorable weather during most of the crop season and during harvest
lifted yield to an estimated 3.4 tons per hectare, up 9 percent from
last year's drought-damaged crop. The French Ministry of Agriculture, in
its first estimate, on July 1, forecast yield at 6 percent above
average. Winterkill was not a problem with this year's crop. The harvest
for the current crop is nearing completion. (*For more information,
contact Paul Provance at 202-720-0881.*)

# Brazil: Declining International Prices Reduce Prospects for Large Cotton Crop

The 2004/05 Brazil cotton crop is forecast at 6.0 million bales, down
500,000 from last month, but up 200,000 from last year. The cotton area
forecast is reduced from 1.15 million hectares to 1.09 million, due to
falling international prices. The crop will be planted in
September-November of 2004. Owing to high profitability of cotton in key
producing states, area might grow in Mato Grosso and Bahia, but declines
are expected in other producing states that lack capital and/or
economies of scale. (*For more information, contact Michael Shean at
202-720-7366.*)

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service's
(FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official
statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials,
and the results of economic and satellite imagery analysis. Estimates of
foreign area, yield, and production are from the Production Estimates
and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA's
Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committees. Estimates of U.S. area,
yield, and production are from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics
Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of
rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-413), August 12,
2004.

**Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information
Service. Download an order form at
http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.**

The Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, prepared
this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be
released after 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on September 10, 2004.

**Conversion Table**

[Metric tons to bushels]{.underline}

> Wheat, soybeans = MT \* 36.7437
>
> Corn, sorghum, rye = MT \* 39.36825
>
> Barley = MT \* 45.929625
>
> Oats = MT \* 68.894438

[Metric tons to 480-lb bales]{.underline}

> Cotton = MT \* 4.592917

[Metric tons to hundredweight]{.underline}

> Rice = MT \* 22.04622

[Area & weight]{.underline}

> 1 hectare = 2.471044 acres
>
> 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

For further information, contact:

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division

Ag Box 1045, Room 6541, South Building

Washington, DC 20250-1045

Telephone: (202) 720-0888 Fax: (202) 720-8880

[GENERAL INFORMATION]{.underline}

Division Director Allen Vandergriff 202-720-0888
vandergriff@fas.usda.gov

Administrative Assistant Mary Jackson 202-720-0888
jacksonma@fas.usda.gov

Deputy Director George Douvelis 202-720-0873 douvelis@fas.usda.gov

Remote Sensing Specialist Brad Doorn 202-690-0131 doorn@fas.usda.gov

Contract Representative Theresa Wright 202-720-8887 wrightt@fas.usda.gov

Imagery Archive Coordinator Judy Goldich 202-720-1572
goldich@fas.usda.gov

USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280
bethel@fas.usda.gov

Chief of Technology Services Bob Baldwin 202-720-1860
baldwin@fas.usda.gov

Image Processing Specialist Stephen Macugoski 202-720-6237
macugoski@fas.usda.gov

[COMMODITY-SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Grains Chairperson Michelle Greenberg 202-720-7339
greenberg@fas.usda.gov

Oilseeds Chairperson Paul Provance 202-720-0881 provance@fas.usda.gov

Rice Chairperson (Acting) Michelle Greenberg 202-720-7339
greenberg@fas.usda.gov

Cotton Chairperson (Acting) Paul Provance 202-720-0881
provance@fas.usda.gov

Production Database Manager Marnet Whittington 202-720-0886
whittington@fas.usda.gov

[COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bob Tetrault 202-690-0130
tetrault@fas.usda.gov

& Chile

Brazil Michael Shean 202-720-7366 shean@fas.usda.gov

Mexico, Central America, Ron White 202-690-0137 whiter@fas.usda.gov

& Caribbean

Canada & Western Europe (Vacant)

Central Europe & North Africa Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138
purcellb@fas.usda.gov

Turkey, Middle East, (Vacant)

& Southwest Asia

Russia, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 lindeman@fas.usda.gov

& other FSU States

China, Koreas, Japan, & Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133
<sandene@fas.usda.gov>

Southeast Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135
crutchfield@fas.usda.gov

India, & Pakistan

Central & Southern Africa Curt Reynolds 202-690-0134
reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov

United States (Vacant)

United States & Int'l Weather Carl Gernazio 202-690-0136
gernazio@fas.usda.gov