**Puget Sound Steelhead Technical Recovery Team**

**Thursday, June 19^th^, 2008**

**NWFSC, Room 370W, 10:00AM-4PM**

**Draft Agenda**

**6/19/2008 -- draft meeting notes are in *italics***

10:00 am Logistics, progress report, next meetings, etc. **(Jeff Hard)**

*Attendance*

*TRT members:*

*Jeff Hard, George Pess, Bob Hayman, Robert Kope, Ed Connor, Anne
Marshall, Jim Myers, Gino Lucchetti, Brad Thompson.*

*Other participants: Tim Tynan (NWR), Bob Donnelly (NWR), Justin Mann
(NWFSC).*

*Our next meeting is scheduled for July 22^nd^.*

*It is possible to hold future meetings in Olympia or Lacey.*

*Contact Jeff if interested in hosting a PSS TRT meeting.*

*Two goals for today's meeting:*

*Discuss and define different strata*

*Learn another approach and tool for fuzzy logic (decision support
system)-Paul McElhany and Michael Maher to demonstrate the method using
a commercial software package with more flexibility and graphic options*

*Update on Puget Sound steelhead genetic samples and data:*

*Anne -- Mixture of juvenile and adult samples*

*New samples from Nisqually are now available for analysis*

*See Puget Sound steelhead strata proposals handout*

*No Nooksack samples or data available thus far, but*

*Ned Currence (Nooksack) may be able to get some samples*

*Update on NWR activities and progress on 4(d) rule take prohibition*

*Bob -- currently waiting for the bureaucracy and paperwork to run its
course*

> *There was a meeting last week with WDFW biometricians to discuss
> their initial PVAs of Puget Sound steelhead stocks as part of a
> harvest analysis for the draft Resource Management Plan (needed for
> Sec 4(d) take rule)*

*Discussed Section 4*

*A more extensive draft is expected*

*They included harvest in the PVA*

*Applied a random walk with drift model (Dennis, Holmes)*

> *Incrementally increases probability of extinction as harvest rate
> increases (up to 16% on wild steelhead)*

*There is a RIST meeting scheduled for June 25^th^ and 26^th^ in
Seattle; Jeff will provide a TRT update to the RIST, and also a
description of a Moore Foundation study on climate change effects on
salmonids he's involved in*

10:15 Population Identification group/Strata proposals **(Jim Myers)**

*See presentation and handout:*

*Five Strata Model*

*Does not consider summer run fish in separate strata*

> *Nooksack Basin, North Cascades, South Sound, East Side Kitsap, Hood
> Canal*

*Lucky Seven:*

> *Split up North and South Kitsap*
>
> *Fish in these two areas have different migratory requirements*

*Big Eight*

> *More finely split; e.g., note that Nooksack is split out from other
> North Sound populations*

11:15 More fuzzy logic and truth charts analyses **(Paul McElhany)**

*See presentation:*

*NMFS Listing Status Decision Framework*

*Combine different indicators*

*"Roll up" -- Hierarchical Assessment*

*Features of a Good Method:*

*Transparent*

*Repeatable*

*Methods for Combining Metrics:*

*Expert opinion*

*Ad Hoc*

*Fuzzy Logic*

*Bayesian probability networks*

*Boolean vs. Fuzzy Logic networks:*

*Boolean logic only says it's either true or false*

*Fuzzy logic quantifies a "sort of true" or "sort of false" conclusion*

*Listing Factor Example:*

*Truth membership functions*

*Rules:*

*"Averaging" -- combine different metrics trying to estimate the same
thing*

*"Highest Risk" -- combining types of risk factors*

*OC Coho "Persistence" Framework*

*Conclusions:*

*Available metrics were not satisfying*

*Fuzzy logic has potential but it has its challenges*

*To Develop DSS:*

*Pick metrics*

*Develop membership functions*

*Design fuzzy network etc.*

*A demonstration of the DSS software was presented by Paul McElhany and
Michael Maher*

12:30 pm **LUNCH**

1:30 Population Identification Group/Strata proposals, continued **(Jim
Myers)**

*Strata -- Frugal Five*

*Biologically defensible*

*Ecological*

*Spatial structure*

*Other Factors:*

*Geology*

*Climate*

*Geography*

*Genetics*

*Life History -- Run Timing*

*Suggestions:*

*Reduce the Big 8 to the Big 5*

*Life history*

2:00 Progress report on viability and VSP roll-up **(Jeff Hard)**

*Postponed*

3:00 Goals For Next Meeting **(All)**

*Provide your favored strata (Major Population Grouping) scenario by
July 14^th^, with clear pros and cons identified*

*Remember, the role of strata is to:*

*Ensure spatial distribution and hedge against catastrophes*

> *Ensure representation of ecologically distinct regions that can
> foster development of local adaptations*
>
> *Ensure representation of genetically distinct groups, that reflect
> reproductive isolation via migration barriers or fitness differences*
>
> *Also consider what the vision of "recovered" DPS should look
> like\--How many pops per stratum need to be at full viability? What
> should viability requirements for other pops be?*

*Jeff will also go over modified viability analyses and DSS scenarios*

3:30 **ADJOURN**