Whose Votes Don't Count? :

An Analysis of Spoiled Ballots in the 2000 Florida Election

June 25, 2001

Philip A. Klinkner

Associate Professor of Government

Director, Arthur Levitt Public Affairs Center

Hamilton College

198 College Hill Road

Clinton, NY 13323

315-859-4344

<pklinkne@hamilton.edu>

Executive Summary:

A regression analysis of Florida counties shows that the pattern of
ballot spoilage in the 2000 general election in due to a variety of
factors. Most importantly, while much of the variation in spoiled
ballots can be explained by the type of voting system used in a county,
there is still a statistically significant relationship between the
percentage of black registered voters and the percentage of spoiled
ballots. Overall, holding other factors equal, for every 1 point
increase in the percentage of registered voters who are black, there was
a .114 increase in the percentage of spoiled ballots. This relationship
is true even when factors such as voting systems, education, and
literacy levels are controlled for. I would also add that while my data
and findings were arrived at independently, these findings are
essentially the same as those if the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights
(USCCR) and therefore contradict the accusations that the USCCR
conducted a biased survey with inaccessible data.

Biography of Philip A. Klinker

Philip Klinker is associate professor of Government and the Director of
the Arthur Levitt Public Affairs Center at Hamilton College in Clinton,
NY. Prior to coming to Hamilto, he was an assistant professor at Loyola
Marymount University in Los Angeles.

Professor Klinker graduated Phi Beta Kappa and summa cum lauda with a
B.A. in Politics from Lake Forrest College in 1985. He earned his Ph.D.
in Political Science from Yale University in 1992. In 1995, he received
the Emerging Scholar Award from the Political Organizations and Parties
section of the American Political Science Association. He was a Research
Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC in 1990-91 and a
Guest Scholar in 1993 and 1995.

Professor Klinkner has authored numerous books and articles. He is the
primary author (with Rogers Smith) of The Unsteady March: The Rise and
Decline of America's Commitment to Racial Equality (University of
Chicago Press, September 1999), which examines the dynamics of race in
American politics and history. The book received the inaugural Horace
Mann Bond Book Award from the W.E.B. Du Bois Institute for Afro-American
Research at Harvard University and was a semifinalist for the 2000
Robert F. Kennedy Book Award.

In addition to his publications, Professor Klinker has also contributed
to the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, The Nation, Salon.com, the
Chicago Tribune, the Washington Post, the Christian Science Monitor, and
many other newspapers and magazines. He has also appeared on many
television and radio broadcasts, including C-SPAN, NPR, and Black
Entertainment Television.

Professor Klinker lives with his wife and two children in Utica, NY.

Whose Votes Don't Count?:

An Analysis of Spoiled Ballots in the 2000 Florida Election

Philip A. Klinkner

Associate Professor of Government

Director, Arthur Levitt Public Affairs Center

Hamilton College

198 College Hill Road

Clinton, NY 13323

315-859-4344

<pklinkne@hamilton.edu>

This project began in response to media reports about the findings of
the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights that indicated higher rates of
ballot spoilage in Florida counties with larger numbers of blacks. I was
intrigued by this result, so I decided to run my own independent
analysis of the data.

As a first step, I obtained data on the dependant variable-the rate of
spoiled ballots in each of Florida's counties. This information came
from the Governor's Select Task Force On Election Procedures, Standards
and Technology, conducted by the Collins Center for Public Policy (the
report is available at
<http://www.collinscenter.org/inforurl2660/info-url.htm>).

The next step was to consider the different independent variables that
might explain the differential rates of ballot spoilage. Among the list
of possible suspects are the following:

Different types of voting Systems:

As Florida election controversy revealed, different types of voting
systems have different rates of accuracy. Perhaps the differences in the
ballot spoilage rates could be explained by the fact that different
Florida counties use different types of voting systems.

The type of voting system is indicated by four variables. Op/P refers to
optical scan systems in which ballots are read at the precinct where the
vote is cast. Op/P refer to optical scans system in which ballots are
collected from individual precincts and read at a central location.
Punchcard refers to the now infamous punchcard voting systems. Other
refers to the two counties using different types of voting systems. One
county uses the lever-machine system and the other uses paper/hand
ballots. This information was obtained from the Governor's Select Task
Force On Election Procedures, Standards and Technology, conducted by the
Collins Center for Public Policy (the report is available at
<http://www.collinscenter.org/inforurl2660/info-url.htm>).

Turnout, defined as the percent of those registered who actually show up
to vote, might influence turnout since it could mean more first time or
inexperienced voters. High turnout might also lead to long lines at the
poll and thus voters who are more concerned about completing their
ballots than about doing so accurately. Finally, high rates of turnout
might also mean polling places in which the number of voters might swamp
the available poll workers, thus making them less able to assist voters
in completing ballots accurately or in tabulating votes accurately.

Turnout rates are the numbers of voters cast in the country divided by
the number of registered voters in that county. Information on
registered voters for each county is available from the Florida Election
Division website:
<http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/vrArchive/2000voterreg.shtml#general>.

Data on the votes in each county is available at the Florida Elections
Division website:
<http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp>.

Gore %

This is defined as the percent of the votes cast in the county for Al
Gore. Perhaps the rate of spoiled ballots differed among Republicans and
Democrats. Data on the presidential voter for each county is available
at the Florida Elections Division website:
<http://election.doe.state.fl.us/election/resultsarchive/Index.asp>.

\% Hispanic:

Spoiled ballots might be more common among Hispanics for a variety of
reasons, namely less familiarity with English and that recent immigrants
might have less knowledge about voting procedures and politics. This
data was obtained from the 2000 U.S. Census available at
<http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/BasicFactsServlet>.

Median Income:

Spoiled ballots might be more common among poor people, and/or counties
with low incomes might be less able to afford more accurate voting
systems. This data was obtained from the 1990 U.S. Census at
<http://venus.census.gov/cdrom/lookup>.

Literacy:

Many have suggested that less literate voters might be more inclined to
spoil their ballots since they will be less able to read and follow
instructions. Data on the literacy by county in Florida is from the 1992
National Adult Literacy Survey. The numbers indicate the percentage of
adults in the county at Level 1 Literacy. This is the lowest of literacy
and persons at this level are unable to complete such simple reading
tasks, such as understanding a bus schedule. This data is available from
the website of the Florida Literacy Coalition at
<http://www.floridaliteracy.org/level_one.htm>.

Education:

Like literacy, low education levels might influence rate of ballot
spoilage. For this I used the percent of persons aged 25 or older who
have completed less than the 9^th^ grade. This data was obtained from
the 1990 U.S. Census at <http://venus.census.gov/cdrom/lookup>.

\% Black Registered Voters:

As the report of the U.S. Commission on Civil Right showed and as media
reports after the election indicated, the rate of ballot spoilage seemed
higher in largely black areas. For this I used the percent of registered
voters in the county who are black. Information on registered voters by
race for each county is available from the Florida Elections Division
website:
<http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/vrArchive/2000voterreg.shtml#general>.

Voters per Precinct

As with turnout, spoiled ballots might result from voters who have had
to wait in line. This factor might be reflected in the number of voters
per precinct within the county. In addition, with more voters per
precinct, it might also be the case that there are few election workers
to assist in accurately filling out ballots. The number of voters along
with the number of precincts in each county is available at the Florida
Elections Division website:
<http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultarchive/Index.asp>.

Increase in Registration:

Spoiled ballots might result from increased numbers of first time
voters. Since these voters are, by definition, less familiar with the
process, they might be more likely to spoil their ballots. One
indication of more first time voters might be increased numbers of
registered voters over a previous year, in this case 1996, the year of
the last presidential election. Information on registered voters for
each county in 2000 is available from the Florida Elections Division
website:
<http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/vrArchive/2000voterreg.shtml#general>.

Information on registered voters in 1996 is available from the Florida
Election Division website:
<http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voterreg/vrArchive/2000voterreg.shtml#general>.

Increase in Voting:

Another indication of more first time voters might be an increase in the
number of actual voters from one election to another. In this case, I've
used the percentage increase in voters from each county from 1996 to
2000. Data on election results from both 1996 and 2000 is available from
the Florida Election Division website:
<http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultarchive/Index.asp>.

Other variable: In addition to these variables, I also ran models with
the following variables, all of which proved either substantively and/or
statistically insignificant:

-   County crime rates,

-   Percent of elderly population,

-   Percent of population under 25,

-   Party of the county election supervisor,

-   Percent of population with less than a high school diploma,

-   Percent of population with some college education,

-   Percent of population in rural areas,

-   Percent of population English-only speakers,

-   County population density,

-   Percent of blacks with less than 9^th^ grade education,

-   Percent of blacks with less than a high school diploma,

-   Percent of blacks with some college education,

-   Increase in percent of registered voters who are black from 1996 to
    2000

I then ran a regression model using the fourteen independent variables
previously listed. The regression was run using SPSS 10.0 for Macintosh.
The results are as follows:

  ------------------- -------------- -------------- ------------ --------------------
  Model Summary                                                  

  Model               R              R Square       Adjusted R   Std. Error of the
                                                    Square       Estimate

  1                   .933(a)        .870           .837         1.257534117413E-02

  A Predictors:                                                  
  (Constant), %                                                  
  Increase Vote                                                  
  96-00, OTHER, Level                                            
  1 Literacy, Gore %,                                            
  Punchcard, 1989                                                
  Median \$, Turnout,                                            
  % Hispanic,                                                    
  Voters/Precincts,                                              
  Opt/C, % Black Reg                                             
  2000, 96-00 %                                                  
  Increase Total Reg,                                            
  % \< 9^th^                                                     
  ------------------- -------------- -------------- ------------ --------------------

  ---------------- -------------- ---------------- ------- --------------- ------------ ----------
  Coefficient(a)                                                                        

                                  Unstandardized           Standardized    T            Sig.
                                  Coefficients             Coefficients                 

  Model                           B                Std.    Beta                         
                                                   Error                                

  1                (Constant)     .06236           .032                    1.950        .057

                   Opt/C          .04211           .005    .544            8.312        .000

                   Punchcard      .03469           .004    .541            8.612        .000
  ---------------- -------------- ---------------- ------- --------------- ------------ ----------

  ----------------- ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  OTHER             .02278        .010        .127        2.379       .021

  Turnout           -.06523       .031        -.129       -2.087      .042

  Gore %            -.04972       .022        -.146       -2.309      .025

  \% Hispanic       -.003395      .024        -.011       -.143       .887

  1989 Median \$    .0000004052   .000        .061        .749        .457

  Level 1 Literacy  .03147        .054        .058        .588        .559

  \% \< 9^th^       .05617        .055        .094        1.030       .308

  \% Black Reg 2000 .133          .024        .392        5.442       .000

  96-00 % Increase  -.001337      .002        -.058       -.718       .476
  Total Reg                                                           

  Voter/Precincts   -.00001666    .000        -.187       -2.763      .008

  \% Increase Vote  -.01598       .020        -.044       -.781       .439
  96-00                                                               

  A Dependent                                                         
  Variable: %                                                         
  Spoiled                                                             
  ----------------- ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------------- ------- --------- --------- --------- ------------- -------------- -----------
  Excluded                                                                               
  Variables(b)                                                                           

                              Beta In   t         Sig.      Partial       Collinearity   
                                                            Correlation   Statistics     

  Model                                                                                  Tolerance

  1                   Opt/P   .(a)      .         .         .             .000           

  A Predictors:                                                                          
  (Constant), %                                                                          
  Increase Vote                                                                          
  96-00, OTHER, Level                                                                    
  1 Literacy, Gore %,                                                                    
  Punchcard, 1989                                                                        
  Median \$, Turnout,                                                                    
  % Hispanic,                                                                            
  Voters/Precincts,                                                                      
  Opt/C, % Black Reg                                                                     
  2000, 96-00 %                                                                          
  Increase Total Reg,                                                                    
  % \< 9^th^                                                                             

  B Dependent                                                                            
  Variable: % Spoiled                                                                    
  ------------------- ------- --------- --------- --------- ------------- -------------- -----------

As the model shows, the following variables were not significant:

1.  \% Hispanic

2.  1989 Median S

3.  Level 1 Literacy

4.  \% \<9^th^

5.  96-00& Increase in Total Reg

6.  \% Increase Vote 96-00

Conversely, the following variable were statistically significant at the
.05 level or greater.

1.  Op/C

2.  Op/P

3.  Punchcard

4.  Other

5.  Turnout

6.  Gore %

7.  \% Black Reg Voters

8.  Voters/Precincts

I then re-ran the model using only the statistically significant
variables. The results are as follows:

  ------------------- --------- -------- ------------------ -----------------------
  Model Summary                                             

  Model               R         R Square Adjusted R Square  Std. Error of the
                                                            Estimate

  1                   .931(a)   .866     .850               1.204969268270E-02

  A Predictors:                                             
  (Constant),                                               
  Voters/Precincts,                                         
  Punchcard, OTHER, %                                       
  Black Reg 2000,                                           
  Turnout, Gore %,                                          
  Opt/C                                                     
  ------------------- --------- -------- ------------------ -----------------------

  ----------------- ------------ ---------------- ---------- --------------------- ------- ----------
  Coefficients(a)                                                                          

                                 Unstandardized              Standardized          t       Sig
                                 Coefficients                Coefficients                  

  Model                          B                Std. Error Beta                          

  1                 (Constant)   0..9650          .018                             5.381   .000
  ----------------- ------------ ---------------- ---------- --------------------- ------- ----------

  ------------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  Opt/C              0.04394     .004        .592        10.137      .000

  Punchcard          0.03465     .004        .537        9.838       .000

  OTHER              0.02272     .009        .125        2.563       .013

  Turnout            -0.08160    .027        -.159       -3.071      .003

  Gore %             -0.04831    .019        -.141       -2.554      .013

  \% Black Reg 2000  0.13700     .019        .399        7.147       .000

  Voters/Precincts   -0.00002    .000        -.233       -4.172      .000

  A Dependent                                                        
  Variable: %                                                        
  Spoiled                                                            
  ------------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  -------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ------------- --------------
  Excluded                                                         
  Variables(b)                                                     

  Model          Beta In     t           Sig.        Partial       Collinearity
                                                     Correlation   Statis

                                                                   

                                                                   

                                                                   
  -------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ------------- --------------