Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 4/1/2008

**GAIN Report Number:** ID8004

ID8004

**Indonesia**

**Grain and Feed**

**Annual**

**2008**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Fred R. Kessel

U.S. Embassy, Jakarta

**Prepared by:**

Sugiarti Meylinah

**Report Highlights:**

More favorable weather compared to last year will slightly increase the
Indonesian CY 2008 rice production to an estimated 35.5 million tons of
rice milled equivalent. As a consequence of that, imports of rice are
expected to go down to 1.1 million tons. Despite the soaring price of
wheat on world markets, growing demand for wheat-based food products
will continue to increase Indonesian wheat consumption to 5.36 million
tons in MY 2008/09. Wheat imports are forecast to inch up to 5.5 million
tons. Incentives due to price increases are expected to lead to a bumper
crop of corn in MY 2008/09 reaching 7.75 million tons.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Annual Report

Jakarta \[ID1\]

\[ID\]

Table of Contents

[EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3](#executive-summary)

[SECTION I. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 3](#section-i.-situation-and-outlook)

[WHEAT 3](#wheat)

[Trade 3](#trade)

[Consumption 4](#consumption)

[Prices 5](#prices)

[CORN 5](#corn)

[Production 5](#production)

[Consumption 5](#consumption-1)

[Trade 6](#trade-1)

[RICE, MILLED 7](#rice-milled)

[Production 7](#production-1)

[Trade 8](#trade-2)

[Stocks 8](#stocks)

[Prices 8](#prices-1)

[Policy 9](#policy)

[SECTION II. STATISTICAL TABLES 10](#section-ii.-statistical-tables)

[PSD: WHEAT 10](#psd-wheat)

[PSD: CORN 11](#psd-corn)

[PSD: RICE, MILLED 12](#psd-rice-milled)

[RICE PRODUCTION: AREA AND PRODUCTION BY REGION
13](#rice-production-area-and-production-by-region)

[Harvested Area, Production, and Yield of Rice, 2008\*
13](#harvested-area-production-and-yield-of-rice-2008)

[CORN PRODUCTION: AREA AND PRODUCTION BY REGION
14](#corn-production-area-and-production-by-region)

[Harvested Area, Production, and Yield of Corn 2008\*
14](#harvested-area-production-and-yield-of-corn-2008)

# EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

**Wheat**

The CY 2008 Indonesian wheat flour production is forecast to increase by
5 percent to 3.2 million tons compared to 3.1 million tons in CY 2007
due to continued demand for wheat-based food products. Shortages in
Australian wheat production have boosted U.S. wheat export to Indonesia
to a record level of 831,320 tons in MY 2006/07. The high price of wheat
in international markets has forced some smaller wheat millers to
temporarily stop operations and import wheat flour instead of wheat.

**Corn**

In line with the jump in Indonesian corn production, in MY 2007/08
imports of corn are estimated to significantly decline to 600,000 tons.
The United States was the major supplier of corn to Indonesia with a
37-percent share.

**Rice**

Indonesian CY 2008 rice production is forecast to slightly increase to
55.5 million tons of dry paddy. Heavy rains during the main harvest in
March -- April 2008 will lower the quality of the paddy and lower the
milling rate to 64 percent. Rice imports are forecast to decline to 1.1
million tons in CY 2008.

# SECTION I. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

## WHEAT

### Trade

Approximately 85 percent of total Indonesian wheat flour consumption is
met by imported wheat. The soaring price of wheat in world markets
during MY 2007/08 will limit Indonesian wheat imports to 5.3 million
tons, the same amount as in the previous MY. Given its geographical
advantage, Australia will continue to be the major supplier of wheat to
Indonesia with a 50-percent market share, followed by Canada (31
percent). However, long lasting drought in Australia during MY 2006/07
has given a favor to the U.S. wheat exports to Indonesia. U.S. wheat
exports to Indonesia significantly increased by 287 percent to 831,000
tons and market share increased to 15.6 percent.

The high price of wheat has reduced margins of larger-scale wheat
millers and has forced some smaller wheat millers to temporarily stop
operations. Reportedly, some are importing wheat flour instead of wheat.
Depressed consumer purchasing power also made some larger-scale wheat
millers to export their wheat flour. Nevertheless, the increase of
Indonesian wheat flour export is insignificant.

GOI has also taken measures to lower wheat flour prices in the domestic
market to ease depressed consumer purchasing power following the sharp
increase in almost all Indonesian basic food prices. In February 2008,
GOI temporarily reduced the import duty on wheat flour to zero, and will
temporarily afford the value added tax (VAT) of wheat and wheat flour.
The import duty for wheat flour was 5 percent and the VAT for wheat and
wheat flour was 10 percent. However, how long the measure will stay in
place is unclear.

In addition, on January 24, 2008 the Ministry of Industry issued a
regulation temporarily lifting the Indonesian National Standard (SNI) on
wheat flour. With this regulation, importers can import unfortified
wheat flour. Formerly, wheat flour produced domestically or imported
must have been fortified with iron, zinc, thiamin, riboflavin, and folic
acid to assure the nutritional value contained in wheat flour. This
Minister of Industry' regulation is expected to be effective until April
2008.

Despite the aforementioned efforts, China's policy to impose a 25
percent tax on exports of wheat and wheat flour will keep total
Indonesian imports of wheat flour from increasing significantly. In MY
2007/08 Indonesian wheat flour imports are estimated to be on par with
that in MY 2006/07 of 550,000 tons. The dominant suppliers of wheat
flour to Indonesia in MY 2006/07 were Australia (31 percent), Sri Lanka
(28 percent), Turkey (22 percent), and China (8 percent).

### Consumption

Consistent with economic growth that is estimated to remain above 6
percent in 2008 and population growth, combined with the continuous
demand for wheat-based food products as an alternative to Indonesian
staple food of rice, Indonesian wheat flour consumption is expected to
continue growing. However, the rising price of wheat slow down growth in
MY 2007/08 to only 5.1 million tons wheat equivalent, compared to 5
million tons wheat equivalent in the previous MY. It is expected to
continue growing to 5.3 million tons wheat equivalent in MY 2008/09.

The Indonesian per capita wheat flour consumption in 2007 is estimated
to increase to 18 kg per capita compared to 17 kg per capita in 2006.

The noodle industry contributes to 50 percent of overall Indonesia wheat
flour consumption followed by the bakery industry (25 percent), biscuit
(15 percent), fried meals (5 percent), and household use (5 percent).

Approximately 90 percent of wheat flour consumed by the bakery industry
is absorbed by lower-middle scale bakeries. Depressed consumer
purchasing power made it difficult for bakers to increase products
prices. Yet, GOI action to lower prices makes it difficult for bakeries
to also increase their prices. Instead of increasing the price, they
reduced the size of their bread or donut and sold it at the same price.
They also used lower quality and cheaper wheat flour. However, this
strategy cannot be implemented for the long term, they will be forced to
raise their price eventually. Some of the upper end bakeries have
already increased their prices by an average of 5-7 percent.

To gain a stronger position in the Indonesian wheat flour industry, the
bakeries united in an association called Indonesian Bakery Association
which was established on December 11, 2007. The association currently
has 400 members scattered all over Indonesia. It plans to hold the First
Indonesian Bakery Exhibition in May 2008. It would also like to initiate
an Indonesian National Standard regarding bakery products.

### Prices

To meet increases in the price on world markets, wheat millers are
reportedly increasing the price of wheat flour gradually by an average
of 5 percent per month. Within two months in early 2008, wheat flour
prices increased by 15 percent. Currently, wheat flour prices are
ranging from Rp. 158,100/25 kg bags (US\$ 693/ton) to Rp. 166,700/25 kg
bags (US\$ 730/ton) at the mill level. The price of most common brand of
all purposes flour at retail level now stands at Rp. 8,200/kg (US\$
898/ton).

## CORN

### Production

The high price of corn in world markets contributes to increases in the
domestic price of corn. The high prices provide an incentive along with
favorable weather and GOI intention to become self sufficient in corn
production by subsidizing corn seeds to farmers. Therefore, Indonesian
corn production is forecast to increase by 12 percent to 7.5 million
tons in MY 2007/08 compared to 6.7 million tons in MY 2006/07.

In 2008, total area planted with hybrid corn is estimated to increase to
834,000 hectares compared to 811,600 hectares in 2007 with an average
yield of 4.5 tons/hectare. Approximately 16,500--17,000 tons of hybrid
corn seed were produced in 2007 and production is expected to go up to
18,000--19,000 tons in 2008. The price of hybrid corn seed currently
ranges from Rp. 28,000/kg (US\$ 3,067/ton) -- Rp. 32,000/kg (US\$
3,505/ton).

Most of the corn farmers in Indonesia are still using composite and
local corn seed that give an average yield of 2.75 tons/hectare.

Corn is largely planted as a secondary crop or inter-cropped with rice.
The rising price of corn will act as an incentive for farmers who will
be choosing between rice and corn during the second crop cycle that
normally starts in April. MY 2008/09 production is forecast to increase
to 7.75 million tons.

### Consumption

Corn accounts for 50 percent share in feed formulations. It is often
combined with soybean meal, poultry meat meal, meat and bone meal, fish
meal, and other feed ingredients. MY 2007/08 Indonesian corn consumption
for feed is estimated to reach 4.2 million tons in line with the
increase in poultry and livestock production. AI coverage in the media
no longer significantly impacts consumer poultry meat consumption.

**AI Cases in Humans**

**July 2005 to February 2008**

**By Province**

  --------- ----------------------------- ----------------- -----------------
  **No.**   **Province**                  **Cases**         **Deaths**

  1\.       Jakarta                       32                27

  2\.       West Java                     31                25

  3\.       Banten                        25                22

  4\.       Central Java                  10                9

  5\.       North Sumatera                8                 7

  6\.       East Java                     7                 5

  7\.       Riau                          6                 5

  8\.       West Sumatera                 3                 1

  9\.       Lampung                       3                 0

  10\.      Bali                          2                 2

  11\.      South Sulawesi                1                 1

  12\.      South Sumatera                1                 1

            TOTAL                         129               105
  --------- ----------------------------- ----------------- -----------------

Source: Indonesia National Commission for AI.

In MY 2008/09, corn consumption for food, seed, and industrial use is
forecast to increase to 4 million tons. A corn miller who produced corn
grits reported that it is more difficult to mill U.S. corn as it is
higher in flour content so the corn yields only 45 percent grits. It
prefers to mill Indonesian corn that yields 60 percent grits.

### Trade

In line with the increase in production, MY 2007/08 Indonesian corn
import is estimated to decline by 50 percent to 600,000 tons compared to
1.2 million tons in MY 2006/07. In CY 2007 the United States remained
the major supplier of corn to Indonesia with a 37-percent market share,
followed by Thailand (23 percent), and Argentina (21 percent). The
decline in corn imports are expected to continue into MY 2008/09 when it
is forecast to reduce to 500,000 tons.

Traders report that the domestic corn price is very volatile. During
January 2008, when DOC broiler production was about 20 millions
chicks/week and the price was Rp. 1,000/head (US\$ 0.1/head), the corn
price in Lampung was recorded at Rp. 2,500/kg (US\$ 274/ton), in Jakarta
at Rp. 2,650/kg (US\$ 290/ton), and in East Java at Rp. 2,450/kg (US\$
268/ton). In March, DOC broiler production was approximately 18 millions
chicks/week and the price Rp. 3,000/head (US\$ 0.33/head). The corn
price in Lampung was Rp. 2,100/kg (US\$ 230/ton), in Jakarta was Rp.
2,200/kg (US\$ 241/ton), and in East Java was Rp. 2,000/kg (US\$
219/ton). Nonetheless, feed millers continue to source more corn locally
than by import due to the soaring price of corn and other feed
ingredients in the world market.

In February 2008, the Indonesian Directorate General for Livestock
issued a letter approving the importation of meat and bone meal (MB)
from two additional U.S. rendering plants increasing the total to three
plants, namely Baker Commodities Inc., Darling International of Omaha,
Nebraska, and Central By Products of Minneapolis, Minnesota. The letter
also mentioned that the U.S. MBM was safe and was recommended to be used
in poultry and aqua feed formulation. Industry reported that for April
shipment the landed price of U.S. MBM price is quoted at US\$ 676.5/ton
while the price of Australian and New Zealand MBM are US\$ 654.5/ton.

## RICE, MILLED

### Production

Due to the better harvest for the CY 2007 second and third crop, Post
revised the Indonesian CY 2007 rice production to 35.3 million tons of
rice milled equivalent.

Based on recent post observations throughout the major rice producing
areas, in CY 2008 Indonesian rice production is estimated to be better
than last year. This year farmers in the three provinces of West Java,
Central Java, and East Java grew their paddy at relatively the same
time. So there will be a main harvest period during March and April
2008.

The water level at most of the large rivers and dams is sufficient to
irrigate the surrounding paddy fields. However, heavy rains during the
main harvest period and floods that are still occurring in some areas in
Central and East Java may bring down the quality of the paddy. It will
increase the moisture content and broken grains, which lower the milling
rate to 64 percent, compared to the CY 2007 milling rate of 64.5
percent.

Farmers are still reluctant to use hybrid seeds due to their
vulnerability to drought and low resistance to pest and disease. The
texture and the taste of the rice produced from the hybrid seed are not
preferred by consumers either. Most farmers are still using Ciherang and
IR-64 varieties.

Given the above situation, Post estimates that Indonesian rice
production will increase to 35.5 million tons rice milled equivalent in
CY 2008.

### 

### Trade

In an effort to stabilize rice prices in the domestic market, GOI issued
a Ministry of Finance's regulation in January 2008 lowering the import
duty of rice to Rp. 450/kg (US\$ 49.3/ton).

In February 2008, GOI decided to give Bulog a license to import 570,000
tons of rice to meet Bulog's procurement target of 3 million tons of
rice milled equivalent. Nevertheless, the high price of rice in the
world market will force Bulog to intensify its procurement from the
domestic market. In CY 2008 imports of rice are estimated to decrease to
1.1 million tons due to the increase in rice production.

### Stocks

With the increase of supply from domestic production, CY 2008 ending
stock are estimated to increase to 4.6 million tons. The CY 2008 target
for domestic rice procurement by Bulog is 2.4 million tons of rice
milled equivalent.

### Prices

During 2008, Bulog the parastatal agency that imports rice and manages
government purchases and distribution of rice, will not increase the
price it pays to farmers for dry paddy.

**Government Purchasing Price (HPP)**

(Based on the Presidential Instruction No. 3/2007)

+----------------+----------+--------+---------+----------+-----------+
| Type           | Moisture | Gove   |         |          |           |
|                | Content  | rnment |         |          |           |
|                |          | Purc   |         |          |           |
|                | (        | hasing |         |          |           |
|                | Percent) | Price  |         |          |           |
|                |          | (HPP)  |         |          |           |
+----------------+----------+--------+---------+----------+-----------+
|                |          | Old    |         | New      |           |
|                |          |        |         |          |           |
|                |          | \(     |         | \(2007\) |           |
|                |          | 2005\) |         |          |           |
+----------------+----------+--------+---------+----------+-----------+
|                |          | Rp./kg | U       | Rp./kg   | US\$/ton  |
|                |          |        | S\$/ton |          |           |
+----------------+----------+--------+---------+----------+-----------+
| Wet paddy      | 25       | \-     | \-      | 2,000    | 219       |
| (GKP) at       |          |        |         |          |           |
| farmer level   |          |        |         |          |           |
+----------------+----------+--------+---------+----------+-----------+
| Wet paddy      | 25       | 1,730  | 189     | 2,035    | 223       |
| (GKP) at       |          |        |         |          |           |
| milling level  |          |        |         |          |           |
+----------------+----------+--------+---------+----------+-----------+
| Dry paddy      | 14       | 2,250  | 246     | 2,575    | 282       |
| (GKG) at       |          |        |         |          |           |
| milling level  |          |        |         |          |           |
+----------------+----------+--------+---------+----------+-----------+
| Dry paddy      | 14       | 2,280  | 250     | 2,600    | 285       |
| (GKG) in Bulog |          |        |         |          |           |
| storage        |          |        |         |          |           |
+----------------+----------+--------+---------+----------+-----------+
| Rice in Bulog  | 14       | 3,550  | 389     | 4,000    | 438       |
| storage        |          |        |         |          |           |
+----------------+----------+--------+---------+----------+-----------+

Currently, the price of wet paddy at the farmer level in Java ranges
from Rp. 1,850/kg (US\$ 203/ton) to Rp. 2,000/kg (US\$ 219/ton). The
price of dry paddy at the farmer level ranges from Rp. 2,600/kg (US
285/ton) to Rp. 2,750/kg (US\$ 301/ton). The price of medium quality
rice at wholesale market is Rp. 5,300/kg (US\$ 581/ton).

In 2008, GOI continues to subsidize urea, NPK, ZA, and SP-36 prices. The
maximum retail price for fertilizers are Rp. 1,200/kg (US\$ 131/ton),
Rp. Rp. 1,750/kg (US\$ 192/ton), Rp. 1,630/kg (US\$ 179/ton), and Rp.
1,550/kg (US\$ 170/ton) respectively.

### Policy

In 2008, Bulog will distribute a total of 2.8 million tons of rice to
19.1 million families under the rice for the poor program (Raskin). Each
family will receive 15 kg of rice for the price of Rp. 1,600/kg (US\$
175/ton) during 9 months starting February 2008. In January 2008 Bulog
distributed 10 kg per family. In 2007, Bulog distributed 1.7 million
tons of rice to 15.8 million poor families. Each family received 10 kg
at Rp. 1,000/kg for 10 months.

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# SECTION II. STATISTICAL TABLES

## PSD: WHEAT

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 18%" />
<col style="width: 7%" />
<col style="width: 2%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 2%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
<col style="width: 6%" />
<col style="width: 2%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 8%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>PSD Table</strong></td>
<td></td>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td colspan="2"></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>Country</strong></td>
<td colspan="12"><strong>Indonesia</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>Commodity</strong></td>
<td colspan="6"><strong>Wheat</strong></td>
<td colspan="6">(1000 HA)(1000 MT)(MT/HA)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td colspan="4"><p>2006</p>
<p>Revised</p></td>
<td colspan="4"><p>2007</p>
<p>Estimate</p></td>
<td colspan="4"><p>2008</p>
<p>Forecast</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td></td>
<td colspan="2">USDA<br />
Off.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.<br />
New</td>
<td colspan="2">USDA<br />
Off.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.<br />
New</td>
<td colspan="2">USDA<br />
Off.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.<br />
New</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>Market Year Begin</strong></td>
<td colspan="4">07/2006</td>
<td colspan="4">07/2007</td>
<td colspan="4">07/2008</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Area Harvested</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Beginning Stocks</td>
<td colspan="2">972</td>
<td>943</td>
<td>972</td>
<td colspan="2">1319</td>
<td>961</td>
<td>1047</td>
<td colspan="2">1069</td>
<td>1038</td>
<td>1002</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Production</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>MY Imports</td>
<td colspan="2">5572</td>
<td>5200</td>
<td>5300</td>
<td colspan="2">5300</td>
<td>5460</td>
<td>5300</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>5500</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>TY Imports</td>
<td colspan="2">5572</td>
<td>5200</td>
<td>5300</td>
<td colspan="2">5300</td>
<td>5460</td>
<td>5300</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>5500</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>TY Imp. from U.S.</td>
<td colspan="2">831</td>
<td>440</td>
<td>831</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>270</td>
<td>950</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Total Supply</td>
<td colspan="2">6544</td>
<td>6143</td>
<td>6272</td>
<td colspan="2">6619</td>
<td>6421</td>
<td>6347</td>
<td colspan="2">1069</td>
<td>1038</td>
<td>6502</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>MY Exports</td>
<td colspan="2">175</td>
<td>180</td>
<td>175</td>
<td colspan="2">200</td>
<td>190</td>
<td>185</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>195</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>TY Exports</td>
<td colspan="2">175</td>
<td>180</td>
<td>175</td>
<td colspan="2">200</td>
<td>190</td>
<td>185</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>195</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Feed Consumption</td>
<td colspan="2">50</td>
<td>52</td>
<td>50</td>
<td colspan="2">50</td>
<td>53</td>
<td>60</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>60</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>FSI Consumption</td>
<td colspan="2">5000</td>
<td>4950</td>
<td>5000</td>
<td colspan="2">5300</td>
<td>5140</td>
<td>5100</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>5300</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Total Consumption</td>
<td colspan="2">5050</td>
<td>5002</td>
<td>5050</td>
<td colspan="2">5350</td>
<td>5193</td>
<td>5160</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>5360</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Ending Stocks</td>
<td colspan="2">1319</td>
<td>961</td>
<td>1047</td>
<td colspan="2">1069</td>
<td>1038</td>
<td>1002</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>947</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Total Distribution</td>
<td colspan="2">6544</td>
<td>6143</td>
<td>6272</td>
<td colspan="2">6619</td>
<td>6421</td>
<td>6347</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>6502</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Yield</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td colspan="2">0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

**\
**

## PSD: CORN

<table style="width:100%;">
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 16%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="10"><strong>PSD Table</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>Country</strong></td>
<td colspan="9"><strong>Indonesia</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>Commodity</strong></td>
<td colspan="5"><strong>Corn</strong></td>
<td colspan="4">(1000 HA)(1000 MT)(MT/HA)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td colspan="3"><p>2006</p>
<p>Revised</p></td>
<td colspan="3"><p>2007</p>
<p>Estimate</p></td>
<td colspan="3"><p>2008</p>
<p>Forecast</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td></td>
<td>USDA<br />
Official</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.<br />
New</td>
<td>USDA<br />
Official</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.<br />
New</td>
<td>USDA<br />
Official</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.<br />
New</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>Market Year Begin</strong></td>
<td colspan="3">10/2006</td>
<td colspan="3">10/2007</td>
<td colspan="3">10/2008</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Area Harvested</td>
<td>3300</td>
<td>3300</td>
<td>3300</td>
<td>3400</td>
<td>3400</td>
<td>3560</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>3700</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Beginning Stocks</td>
<td>775</td>
<td>674</td>
<td>775</td>
<td>750</td>
<td>684</td>
<td>750</td>
<td>725</td>
<td>604</td>
<td>715</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Production</td>
<td>6700</td>
<td>6700</td>
<td>6700</td>
<td>7000</td>
<td>6900</td>
<td>7500</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>7750</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>MY Imports</td>
<td>1200</td>
<td>1200</td>
<td>1200</td>
<td>1000</td>
<td>1000</td>
<td>600</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>500</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>TY Imports</td>
<td>1200</td>
<td>1200</td>
<td>1200</td>
<td>1000</td>
<td>1000</td>
<td>600</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>500</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>TY Imp. from U.S.</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>875</td>
<td>842</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>800</td>
<td>200</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>150</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Total Supply</td>
<td>8675</td>
<td>8574</td>
<td>8675</td>
<td>8750</td>
<td>8584</td>
<td>8850</td>
<td>725</td>
<td>604</td>
<td>8965</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>MY Exports</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>35</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>TY Exports</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>30</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>35</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Feed Consumption</td>
<td>4000</td>
<td>4000</td>
<td>4000</td>
<td>4100</td>
<td>4050</td>
<td>4200</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>4200</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>FSI Consumption</td>
<td>3900</td>
<td>3860</td>
<td>3900</td>
<td>3900</td>
<td>3900</td>
<td>3900</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>4000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Total Consumption</td>
<td>7900</td>
<td>7860</td>
<td>7900</td>
<td>8000</td>
<td>7950</td>
<td>8100</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>8200</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Ending Stocks</td>
<td>750</td>
<td>684</td>
<td>750</td>
<td>725</td>
<td>604</td>
<td>715</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>730</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Total Distribution</td>
<td>8675</td>
<td>8574</td>
<td>8675</td>
<td>8750</td>
<td>8584</td>
<td>8850</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>8965</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Yield</td>
<td>2.030303</td>
<td>2.030303</td>
<td>2.030303</td>
<td>2.058824</td>
<td>2.029412</td>
<td>2.106742</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2.094595</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

**\
**

## PSD: RICE, MILLED

<table>
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 16%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
<col style="width: 9%" />
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="10"><strong>PSD Table</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>Country</strong></td>
<td colspan="9"><strong>Indonesia</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td><strong>Commodity</strong></td>
<td colspan="5"><strong>Rice, Milled</strong></td>
<td colspan="4">(1000 HA)(1000 MT)(MT/HA)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td></td>
<td colspan="3"><p>2006</p>
<p>Revised</p></td>
<td colspan="3"><p>2007</p>
<p>Estimate</p></td>
<td colspan="3"><p>2008</p>
<p>Forecast</p></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td></td>
<td>USDA<br />
Official</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.<br />
New</td>
<td>USDA<br />
Official</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.<br />
New</td>
<td>USDA<br />
Official</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.</td>
<td>Post<br />
Est.<br />
New</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td><strong>Market Year Begin</strong></td>
<td colspan="3">01/2007</td>
<td colspan="3">01/2008</td>
<td colspan="3">01/2009</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Area Harvested</td>
<td>11400</td>
<td>11400</td>
<td>11900</td>
<td>11600</td>
<td>11600</td>
<td>11900</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>11800</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Beginning Stocks</td>
<td>3207</td>
<td>3157</td>
<td>3157</td>
<td>2857</td>
<td>2807</td>
<td>4607</td>
<td>2307</td>
<td>2407</td>
<td>4857</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Milled Production</td>
<td>33300</td>
<td>33300</td>
<td>35300</td>
<td>34000</td>
<td>34000</td>
<td>35500</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>36249</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Rough Production</td>
<td>51628</td>
<td>51628</td>
<td>54729</td>
<td>52713</td>
<td>52713</td>
<td>55469</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>56200</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Milling Rate (.9999)</td>
<td>6450</td>
<td>6450</td>
<td>6450</td>
<td>6450</td>
<td>6450</td>
<td>6400</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>6450</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>MY Imports</td>
<td>1900</td>
<td>2200</td>
<td>2000</td>
<td>1600</td>
<td>1600</td>
<td>1100</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>800</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>TY Imports</td>
<td>1900</td>
<td>2200</td>
<td>2000</td>
<td>1600</td>
<td>1600</td>
<td>1100</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>800</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>TY Imp. from U.S.</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Total Supply</td>
<td>38407</td>
<td>38657</td>
<td>40457</td>
<td>38457</td>
<td>38407</td>
<td>41207</td>
<td>2307</td>
<td>2407</td>
<td>41906</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>MY Exports</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>TY Exports</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Total Consumption</td>
<td>35550</td>
<td>35850</td>
<td>35850</td>
<td>36150</td>
<td>36000</td>
<td>36350</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>36850</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Ending Stocks</td>
<td>2857</td>
<td>2807</td>
<td>4607</td>
<td>2307</td>
<td>2407</td>
<td>4857</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>5056</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>Total Distribution</td>
<td>38407</td>
<td>38657</td>
<td>40457</td>
<td>38457</td>
<td>38407</td>
<td>41207</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>41906</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>Yield (Rough)</td>
<td>4.528772</td>
<td>4.528772</td>
<td>4.599076</td>
<td>4.544224</td>
<td>4.544224</td>
<td>4.661261</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>4.762712</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

**\
**

## RICE PRODUCTION: AREA AND PRODUCTION BY REGION

**(First Estimate Figures by the Government of Indonesia for 2008)**

### Harvested Area, Production, and Yield of Rice, 2008\*

+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Province                      | Harvested  | Production | Yield      |
|                               |            |            |            |
|                               | Area (Ha)  | (MT)       | (100Kg/Ha) |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
|                               |            |            |            |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| North Sumatra                 | 777,909    | 3,379,461  | 42.48      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| South Sumatra                 | 693,023    | 2,815,904  | 40.63      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Sub Total: Sumatra            | 3,213,522  | 13,594,591 | 38.41      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| West Java                     | 1,870,334  | 10,046,877 | 53.72      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Central Java                  | 1,681,872  | 9,138,388  | 54.33      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| East Java                     | 1,745,295  | 9,441,176  | 54.10      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Sub Total: Java               | 5,801,149  | 31,200,175 | 52,79      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| West Nusa Tenggara            | 332,015    | 1,542,788  | 46.47      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Sub Total: Bali & Nusa        | 652,080    | 2,895,562  | 44.76      |
| Tenggara                      |            |            |            |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| West Kalimantan               | 425,581    | 1,337,213  | 31.42      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| South Kalimantan              | 500,221    | 1,958,449  | 39.15      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Sub Total Kalimantan          | 1,281,032  | 4,368,487  | 33.10      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Central Sulawesi              | 200,233    | 849,907    | 42.45      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| South Sulawesi                | 766,511    | 3,697,990  | 48.24      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Sub Total Sulawesi            | 1,291,747  | 5,996,860  | 45.09      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| Other Provinces/Islands       | 59,861     | 213,121    | 35.07      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
|                               |            |            |            |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+
| TOTAL INDONESIA               | 12,299,391 | 58,268,796 | 47.38      |
+-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+

Source: Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS)

Note: \* GOI first estimates 2008

## CORN PRODUCTION: AREA AND PRODUCTION BY REGION

**(First Estimate Figures by the Government of Indonesia for 2008)**

### Harvested Area, Production, and Yield of Corn 2008\*

+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Province                   | Ha      | Pro     |         | Yield   |
|                            | rvested | duction |         |         |
|                            |         | in      |         | (10     |
|                            | Area    | Metric  |         | 0Kg/Ha) |
|                            | (Ha)    | Ton     |         |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
|                            |         | (wet    | (dry    |         |
|                            |         | basis)  | basis)  |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
|                            |         |         |         |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| North Sumatra              | 236,378 | 823,966 | 576,776 | 34.86   |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Lampung                    | 370,038 | 1,      | 946,137 | 36.53   |
|                            |         | 351,624 |         |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Sub Total: Sumatra         | 781,535 | 2,      | 197,360 | 33.06   |
|                            |         | 819,430 |         |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| West Java                  | 115,737 | 594,299 | 416,009 | 51.35   |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Central Java               | 584,430 | 2,      | 1,      | 40.31   |
|                            |         | 355,619 | 648,933 |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| East Java                  | 1,      | 4,      | 3,      | 37.01   |
|                            | 193,051 | 415,982 | 091,187 |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Sub Total: Java            | 1,      | 7,      | 5,      | 35.90   |
|                            | 972,465 | 645,596 | 351,917 |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| East Nusa Tenggara         | 247,092 | 597,140 | 417,998 | 24.17   |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Sub Total: Bali & Nusa     | 371,939 | 799,601 | 559,721 | 27.16   |
| Tenggara                   |         |         |         |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| West Kalimantan            | 37,152  | 162,519 | 113,763 | 43.74   |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| South Kalimantan           | 25,186  | 115,148 | 80,604  | 45.72   |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Sub Total Kalimantan       | 69,466  | 294,971 | 206,480 | 35.30   |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| North Sulawesi             | 130,858 | 462,565 | 323,796 | 35.35   |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| South Sulawesi             | 266,122 | 967,289 | 677,102 | 36.35   |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Gorontalo                  | 130,516 | 626,563 | 438,594 | 48.01   |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Sub Total Sulawesi         | 607,462 | 2,      | 1,      | 35.08   |
|                            |         | 283,453 | 598,417 |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| Other Provinces/Islands    | 20,424  | 40,143  | 28,100  | 18.41   |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
|                            |         |         |         |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
| TOTAL INDONESIA            | 3,      | 13,     | 9,      | 36.83   |
|                            | 769,291 | 883,194 | 718,236 |         |
+----------------------------+---------+---------+---------+---------+

Source: Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS)

Note: \* GOI first estimates 2008

Note: US\$ 1 = Rp. 9,130