Number range CHAPTERTropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Emily

11-21 July 2005

James L. Franklin and Daniel P. Brown

National Hurricane Center

10 March 2006

Emily was briefly a category 5 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Scale) in the Caribbean Sea that, at lesser intensities,
struck Grenada, resort communities on Cozumel and the Yucatan Peninsula,
and northeastern Mexico just south of the Texas border. Emily is the
earliest-forming category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin
and the only known hurricane of that strength to occur during the month
of July.

a.  Synoptic History

    Emily developed from a tropical wave that moved across the west
    coast of Africa on 6 July. The wave was associated with a large area
    of cyclonic turning and disturbed weather while it moved over the
    eastern tropical Atlantic. Shower activity became more concentrated
    on 10 July, and by 0000 UTC 11 July the system had become a tropical
    depression about 1075 n mi east of the southern Windward Islands.

    The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given in
    Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3,
    respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in
    Table 1. While the depression moved westward to the south of a
    narrow ridge of high pressure, initial development was slow due to
    modest easterly shear and a relatively dry environment, particularly
    to the north of the center. Although the circulation remained broad
    and somewhat ill-defined, the system became a tropical storm at 0000
    12 July about 800 n mi east of the southern Windward Islands.
    Emily's forward speed increased on 12 July, from 10 kt to 17-18 kt,
    in response to a low-level surge in the easterlies. This surge
    enhanced the dry environment and produced some westerly shear over
    the core that appeared to keep the cyclone's convection from
    becoming organized. On 13 July, however, with the core convection
    still disorganized, the central pressure hovering near 1003 mb, and
    flight-level winds showing little change, visual estimates of the
    sea state suggested that Emily's surface winds had begun to
    increase. A pair of aircraft center fixes, at 2331 UTC 13 July and
    0112 UTC 14 July, suggest that the center of circulation reformed to
    the northeast of its previous position within the convection. It is
    estimated that Emily became a hurricane at about this time, when the
    center was about 85 n mi east-southeast of Grenada. The convective
    pattern became much more symmetric and organized over the next
    several hours, and Emily's maximum winds increased to near 75 kt by
    the time the center passed over Grenada near 0700 UTC 14 July.

    Emily entered the Caribbean Sea and turned west-northwestward,
    maintaining this heading for the next week as mid-level high
    pressure built westward to the north of the hurricane. Emily
    continued to strengthen in the eastern Caribbean, with its peak
    winds reaching 115 kt (category 4) and its minimum pressure falling
    to 952 mb early on 15 July. Near 1200 UTC a reconnaissance aircraft
    reported concentric eyewalls of 8 and 25 n mi diameter, and by 1800
    UTC Emily had weakened to category 2 strength. A second
    strengthening phase began almost immediately, however, and continued
    on 16 July while Emily passed about 90 n mi south of Jamaica. Emily
    became a category 5 hurricane, with winds of 140 kt and a minimum
    pressure of 929 mb, at 0000 UTC 17 July about 100 n mi to the
    southwest of Jamaica.

    Emily began to slowly weaken on 17 July in the western Caribbean
    Sea, this time in the absence of concentric eyewalls but also
    without any obvious external synoptic forcing. It was still a
    category 4 hurricane, with winds of 115 kt, when the eyewall passed
    over Cozumel and when the center made landfall on the Yucatan
    peninsula near Tulum at 0630 UTC 18 July. Emily quickly cut across
    the Yucatan, emerging into the Gulf of Mexico near 1200 UTC that day
    while just maintaining hurricane strength.

    Once over water, Emily began its third and final intensification
    phase as it continued on a west-northwesterly track toward
    northeastern Mexico. Initially, the hurricane's wind field was
    broad, and Emily strengthened slowly for the first 24 h or so after
    emerging into the Gulf, its winds increasing to 80 kt by 1200 UTC 19
    July. Over the next 12 h, however, a sharp inner wind maximum
    developed, the minimum pressure fell 29 mb, and Emily's maximum
    winds increased to near 110 kt. Early on 20 July as Emily neared the
    coast, land-based radars and reconnaissance aircraft showed a
    well-defined concentric eyewall structure, with the strongest
    flight-level winds associated with the outer feature. The
    intensification stopped and Emily made landfall near San Fernando,
    Mexico (about 75 n mi south-southwest of Brownsville, Texas) at 1200
    UTC 20 July as a category 3 hurricane with winds of near 110 kt.
    After moving inland, Emily turned west and weakened rapidly,
    dissipating on 21 July over the Sierra Madre Oriental mountain range
    of Mexico.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Emily (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based Dvorak
    technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and
    the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), as well as flight-level
    and dropwindsonde observations from flights of the 53^rd^ Weather
    Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command.
    Microwave satellite imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the
    NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT,
    and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites were
    also useful in tracking Emily.

    Emily's maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 140 kt, based on
    700-mb flight-level winds of 153 kt observed at 0324Z 17 July (Fig.
    2). Application of the standard 90% adjustment gives a surface
    estimate of 138 kt - just above the category 5 threshold. Two
    surface-adjusted flight-level observations of 136 kt during the
    preceding several hours also met the category 5 threshold. The
    lowest central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft was 929
    mb, at 2341 UTC 16 July.

    Emily's intensity on 13 and 14 July was particularly difficult to
    assess. Flight-level observations near 1200 UTC 13 July imply an
    intensity near 45 kt, while visual sea-state observations by the
    AFRC aircrew suggested surface winds near 55 kt. Several hours
    later, near 0100 UTC 14 July, a reconnaissance aircraft reported an
    850 mb flight-level wind of 79 kt, which corresponds to 63 kt at the
    surface using typical adjustment factors. Concurrent with this
    latter observation was a dropsonde that suggested surface winds were
    near 80 kt. It is possible that during this intensification phase
    the surface winds were leading the winds aloft. The best track
    intensity during this period is a blend of the data from the two
    levels.

    Ship reports of winds of tropical storm force associated with Emily
    are given in Table 2, and selected surface observations from land
    stations and data buoys are given in Table 3. An eyewall
    dropwindsonde reported an instantaneous surface wind of 136 kt at
    0536 UTC 17 July, although surface estimates inferred from layer
    averages of the dropsonde profile were much lower, near 115 kt.

    Emily passed directly over Grenada. Point Salines International
    Airport, just to the south of the path of the center, reported a
    peak gust of 58 kt. The northeastern tip of the island of Grenada,
    as well as the smaller islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique to
    the northeast, bore the brunt of the hurricane, but no wind
    measurements from these areas are available. Reconnaissance
    observations indicate that the maximum surface winds were likely
    near 75 kt at the time, with stronger winds at elevated locations.

    Heavy rains from Emily affected Jamaica, with the heaviest
    accumulations occurring in St. Elizabeth Parish on the southwestern
    part of the island. Potsdam reported 15.43 in of rainfall, with
    other reports in excess of 10 inches (Table 3).

    At 0509 UTC 18 July, as the eyewall of Emily was passing over
    Cozumel, a reconnaissance aircraft a few miles offshore measured a
    700 mb flight-level wind of 124 kt. Two hours earlier, a
    flight-level wind of 141 kt was reported. On the basis of these
    observations, Emily is estimated to have made landfall on the
    Yucatan Peninsula as a category 4 hurricane with winds of 115 kt. No
    wind observations from the landfall area are available. An
    unofficial report received via ham radio estimated that the storm
    surge in San Miguil on Cozumel was 15 feet. Official rainfall totals
    on the Yucatan were generally close to 1 inch, although there was an
    unofficial report from Cozumel of 4.9 inches.

    Based on aircraft reconnaissance observations, Emily's estimated
    intensity at its final landfall was near 110 kt. An automated
    station at San Fernando, located about 30 n mi inland of the
    landfall location, reported a 10-min sustained wind of 55 kt, a gust
    to 84 kt, and a minimum pressure of 965 mb. There were several
    reports of rainfall in excess of 10 inches in northeastern Mexico
    (Table 3), with 13.78 inches reported at Cerralvo. No estimates of
    storm surge at the final landfall were received.

    In Texas, there were a few official reports of sustained
    tropical-storm-force winds (Table 3), with the highest sustained
    wind reported at Harlingen. Minor coastal flooding occurred in south
    Texas, with estimated storm tides in the 4-5 ft range. Moderate
    beach erosion was reported in Cameron County. A total of eight
    tornadoes were reported in southeastern Texas, causing minor damage
    but no casualties.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency reports that in
    Grenada, damage was concentrated in the northern parishes of St.
    Patrick's and St. Andrew's, where many homes lost their roofs, and
    on the outlying islands of Petite Martinique and Carriacou, where a
    portion of the roof of the island's only hospital was damaged,
    forcing the evacuation of patients to another portion of the
    building. There were also scattered reports of flooding, and media
    reports mention the destruction of crops. In St. Vincent and the
    Grenadines, as well as in Tobago, there were a few reports of roof
    damage.

    Playa del Carmen, Tulum, and the island of Cozumel were hardest hit
    during Emily's first landfall in Mexico, although the reported
    damage was unexpectedly light, suggesting that Emily's strongest
    winds were extremely limited in extent. The winds, however, were
    strong enough to snap concrete utility poles between Playa del
    Carmen and Cancun. Water was knee-deep in some streets. At Emily's
    second landfall in northern Mexico, officials reported that 80%-90%
    of the homes in the fishing community of Laguna Madre were
    destroyed. Elsewhere near the landfall site, the storm drove 90,000
    people from their homes, and thousands of buildings were reported
    destroyed.

    In Texas, damage was minor; there were reports of tree damage in the
    Brownsville area and scattered minor roof damage on South Padre
    Island.

    Six direct deaths have been attributed to Emily. One fatality
    occurred in Grenada associated with a mudslide. In southwestern
    Jamaica, four people in a car were driving through a flooded roadway
    when a surge of water pushed them over a cliff. One person assisting
    the motorists also perished. Amazingly, there were no deaths
    directly attributable to Emily's two landfalls in Mexico, although a
    helicopter crash in advance of the storm claimed two lives. Massive
    evacuations, which by some estimates involved nearly 100,000 people,
    mostly tourists, undoubtedly contributed to the lack of casualties.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    The Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 1530 UTC 10 July,
    about 9 h prior to genesis, was the first Outlook to indicate the
    potential of tropical cyclone formation from Emily's antecedent
    disturbance. While prior outlooks did anticipate some development of
    this disturbance, development was expected to be slow to occur.

    A verification of official and guidance model track forecasts is
    given in Table 4. Average official track errors for Emily were 22,
    38, 58, 75, 94, 109, and 153 n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96,
    and 120 h forecasts, respectively. The number of forecasts ranged
    from 41 at 12 h to 23 at 120 h. These errors are roughly half as
    large as the average long-term official track errors (Table 4), and
    were generally lower than all the numerical guidance, including the
    consensus models. Forecasts issued on 11 and 12 July, when Emily was
    east of the Lesser Antilles, had a northward bias.

Average official intensity errors were 8, 14, 15, 17, 18, 23, and 26 kt
for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. For
comparison, the average official intensity errors over the 10-yr period
1995-2004 are 6, 10, 12, 15, 18, 20, and 22 kt, respectively. In
general, the intensity forecasts tended to underestimate the strength of
Emily. In particular, as Emily approached the southern Windward Islands
on 13 July, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast
incorrectly predicted that Emily would pass through the islands as a
tropical storm. Based on this forecast, the NHC recommended in its
coordination with the Meteorological Service of Grenada that a
pre-existing hurricane warning for Grenada be downgraded to a tropical
storm warning. This forecast turned out to be incorrect, and in
retrospect, a tropical storm warning along with a hurricane watch would
have been more appropriate, given the current limitations of intensity
forecasting. It should be noted, however, that the forecast did call for
Emily to be just below hurricane strength, and that NHC advisories
explicitly indicated that portions of Grenada at higher elevations could
experience hurricane force winds.

Acknowledgements:

The meteorological services of Grenada, Jamaica, and Mexico contributed
observations contained in this report. Information concerning the
effects of Emily in south Texas was provided by the National Weather
Service Weather Forecast Offices in Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Number range CHAPTERTable 1. Best track for Hurricane Emily, 11-21 July
2005.

+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| Dat    | L       | Lon    | P       | Wind    | Stage              |
| e/Time | atitude | gitude | ressure | Speed   |                    |
|        |         |        |         |         |                    |
| (UTC)  | (°N)    | (°W)   | (mb)    | (kt)    |                    |
+========+=========+========+=========+=========+====================+
| 11 /   | 10.7    | 42.4   | 1010    | 25      | tropical           |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         | depression         |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 11 /   | 10.8    | 43.4   | 1009    | 30      | \"                 |
| 0600   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 11 /   | 10.9    | 44.4   | 1009    | 30      | \"                 |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 11 /   | 11.0    | 45.4   | 1007    | 30      | \"                 |
| 1800   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 12 /   | 11.0    | 46.8   | 1006    | 35      | tropical storm     |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 12 /   | 11.0    | 48.5   | 1005    | 40      | \"                 |
| 0600   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 12 /   | 11.0    | 50.2   | 1004    | 45      | \"                 |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 12 /   | 11.0    | 52.0   | 1004    | 45      | \"                 |
| 1800   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 13 /   | 11.0    | 53.7   | 1003    | 45      | \"                 |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 13 /   | 11.1    | 55.4   | 1003    | 45      | \"                 |
| 0600   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 13 /   | 11.2    | 57.2   | 1003    | 50      | \"                 |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 13 /   | 11.4    | 58.9   | 1003    | 55      | \"                 |
| 1800   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /   | 11.6    | 60.2   | 999     | 70      | hurricane          |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /   | 11.9    | 61.5   | 991     | 75      | \"                 |
| 0600   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /   | 12.4    | 63.2   | 980     | 85      | \"                 |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /   | 12.9    | 64.9   | 971     | 100     | \"                 |
| 1800   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 15 /   | 13.3    | 66.7   | 959     | 110     | \"                 |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 15 /   | 13.7    | 68.4   | 952     | 115     | \"                 |
| 0600   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 15 /   | 14.1    | 70.1   | 964     | 115     | \"                 |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 15 /   | 14.5    | 71.8   | 969     | 95      | \"                 |
| 1800   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 16 /   | 14.9    | 73.4   | 958     | 110     | \"                 |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 16 /   | 15.4    | 75.0   | 953     | 120     | \"                 |
| 0600   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 16 /   | 15.9    | 76.5   | 944     | 130     | \"                 |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 16 /   | 16.4    | 78.0   | 937     | 135     | \"                 |
| 1800   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 17 /   | 17.1    | 79.5   | 929     | 140     | \"                 |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 17 /   | 17.7    | 81.2   | 940     | 135     | \"                 |
| 0600   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 17 /   | 18.3    | 82.8   | 946     | 130     | \"                 |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 17 /   | 18.9    | 84.3   | 948     | 125     | \"                 |
| 1800   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 18 /   | 19.5    | 85.8   | 951     | 120     | \"                 |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 18 /   | 20.3    | 87.3   | 955     | 115     | \"                 |
| 0600   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 18 /   | 21.3    | 88.9   | 975     | 65      | \"                 |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 18 /   | 22.0    | 90.3   | 984     | 65      | \"                 |
| 1800   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 19 /   | 22.6    | 91.5   | 981     | 75      | \"                 |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 19 /   | 23.2    | 92.8   | 980     | 80      | \"                 |
| 0600   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 19 /   | 23.7    | 94.0   | 977     | 80      | \"                 |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 19 /   | 24.1    | 95.1   | 959     | 85      | \"                 |
| 1800   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 20 /   | 24.4    | 96.1   | 948     | 110     | \"                 |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 20 /   | 24.6    | 96.9   | 944     | 110     | \"                 |
| 0600   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 20 /   | 24.8    | 97.6   | 944     | 110     | \"                 |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 20 /   | 25.0    | 98.7   | 975     | 70      | tropical storm     |
| 1800   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 21 /   | 25.0    | 99.7   | 995     | 45      | \"                 |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 21 /   | 25.0    | 100.5  | 1000    | 30      | tropical           |
| 0600   |         |        |         |         | depression         |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 21 /   | 25.0    | 101.1  | 1007    | 25      | \"                 |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 21 /   |         |        |         |         | dissipated         |
| 1800   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 14 /   | 12.0    | 61.8   | 989     | 75      | Landfall in        |
| 0700   |         |        |         |         | Grenada            |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 18 /   | 20.3    | 87.4   | 955     | 115     | Landfall near      |
| 0630   |         |        |         |         | Tulum, Mexico      |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 20 /   | 24.8    | 97.6   | 944     | 110     | Landfall near San  |
| 1200   |         |        |         |         | Fernando, Mexico   |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 17 /   | 17.1    | 79.5   | 929     | 140     | minimum pressure   |
| 0000   |         |        |         |         |                    |
+--------+---------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 2. Selected ship reports with winds of at
least 34 kt for Hurricane Emily, 11-21 July 2005.

+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| Date/Time | Ship call | Latitude  | Longitude | Wind      | Pressure  |
| (UTC)     | sign      |           |           |           |           |
|           |           | (°N)      | (°W)      | dir/speed | (mb)      |
|           |           |           |           | (kt)      |           |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 16 / 2100 | OUUU2     | 17.5      | 75.4      | 100 / 37  | 1011.5    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 19 / 1800 | WFKW      | 27.5      | 94.8      | 090 / 39  | 1012.2    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+
| 20 / 0000 | ELQJ3     | 26.8      | 94.4      | 090 / 50  | 1012.5    |
+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+-----------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 3. Selected surface observations for Hurricane
Emily, 11-21 July 2005.

+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Location        | M   |     | M   |       |     | St  | St  | To  |
|                 | ini |     | axi |       |     | orm | orm | tal |
|                 | mum |     | mum |       |     | su  |     |     |
|                 | Sea |     | S   |       |     | rge | t   | r   |
|                 | Le  |     | urf |       |     |     | ide | ain |
|                 | vel |     | ace |       |     | (   |     |     |
|                 | Pr  |     |     |       |     | ft) | (   | (   |
|                 | ess |     | W   |       |     | ^c^ | ft) | in) |
|                 | ure |     | ind |       |     |     | ^d^ |     |
|                 |     |     | Sp  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | eed |       |     |     |     |     |
+=================+=====+=====+=====+=======+=====+=====+=====+=====+
|                 | Da  | Pre | Da  | Sust  | G   |     |     |     |
|                 | te/ | ss. | te/ | ained | ust |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | t   | (   | t   | (k    | (   |     |     |     |
|                 | ime | mb) | ime | t)^b^ | kt) |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | (U  |     | (U  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | TC) |     | TC) |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | ^a^ |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Grenada**     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Point Salines   | 1   | 99  | 1   | 35    | 58  |     |     | 3   |
| Int\'l Airport  | 4/0 | 1.5 | 4/0 |       |     |     |     | .28 |
|                 | 700 |     | 840 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Barbados**    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Grantly Adams   |     |     | 1   | 37    |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 3/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 900 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Jamaica**     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Potsdam         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 15  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .43 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Mountainside    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 12  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .99 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Non-Pariel      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .69 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Fullerwood      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .42 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Holland         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 9   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .00 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Mexico**      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| San Fernando    | 2   | 965 | 2   | 55^e^ | 84  |     |     |     |
|                 | 0/1 |     | 0/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 550 |     | 510 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Monterrey       |     |     | 2   | 35    | 59  |     |     |     |
| Airport         |     |     | 0/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 440 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Matamoros       |     |     | 2   | 35    | 59  |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 0/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 440 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cancun          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 1   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .32 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| E. Zapata       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 1   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .03 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cerralvo        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 13  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .78 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Madero          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 12  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .98 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Presa Cerro     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
| Prieto          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .24 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Sabinas Hidalgo |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 10  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .73 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Vallehermoso    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 9   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .90 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Monterrey       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 9   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .76 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Presa La Boca   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 9   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .25 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Presa El        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 9   |
| Cuchillo        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .06 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cabazones       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .38 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Rio Bravo       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .06 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Reynosa         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .06 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| El Canada       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .40 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Las Enramadas   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .17 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Higueras        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .09 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cienega de      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
| Flores          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .54 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cadereyta       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .48 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Iturbide        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .22 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Mexico        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (Unofficial)**  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| San Miguil,     |     |     |     |       |     | 15  |     | 4   |
| Cozumel         |     |     |     |       |     | ^f^ |     | .90 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Tulum           |     | 978 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Texas         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (Official)**    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Alice           |     |     | 2   | 34    | 40  |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 0/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 310 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Brownsville     | 2   | 100 | 2   | 42    | 55  |     |     | 2   |
| (KBRO)          | 0/0 | 2.4 | 0/1 |       |     |     |     | .59 |
|                 | 807 |     | 204 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Harlingen       | 2   | 100 | 2   | 44    | 51  |     |     | 3   |
| (KHRL)          | 0/0 | 4.7 | 0/1 |       |     |     |     | .00 |
|                 | 833 |     | 107 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| McAllen (KMFE)  | 2   | 100 | 2   | 33    | 41  |     |     | 4   |
|                 | 0/1 | 5.7 | 0/0 |       |     |     |     | .26 |
|                 | 032 |     | 833 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Weslaco         |     |     | 2   | 33    | 42  |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 0/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 420 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Edinburg        | 2   | 100 | 2   | 26    | 34  |     |     |     |
|                 | 0/1 | 7.1 | 0/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 000 |     | 824 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Bayview (KPIL)  |     |     | 2   |       | 34  |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 1/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 536 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Texas         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| (Unofficial)**  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Port Mansfield  | 2   | 100 | 2   | 34    | 38  |     |     | 1   |
|                 | 0/1 | 5.7 | 0/1 |       |     |     |     | .29 |
|                 | 100 |     | 300 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| South Padre     | 2   | 100 | 2   | 30    | 40  |     | 3.0 |     |
| Island CG       | 0/1 | 2.7 | 0/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 200 |     | 500 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| McAllen EOC     |     |     | 2   |       | 45  |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 0/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 747 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Port Isabel     | 2   | 100 |     |       |     |     | 3.0 | 3   |
|                 | 0/0 | 3.0 |     |       |     |     |     | .60 |
|                 | 900 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Baffin Bay      | 2   | 100 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 0/0 | 7.8 |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | 900 |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Port of         |     |     |     |       |     |     | 3.5 | 1   |
| Brownsville     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .78 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Boca Chica      |     |     |     |       |     |     | 5.0 |     |
| Beach           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Isla Blanca     |     |     |     |       |     |     | 4.0 |     |
| State Park      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Armstrong       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 1   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .25 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Brownsville     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 1   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .98 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Donna           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .83 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Edinburg        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .69 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| El Sauz         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 2   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .25 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Falcon Dam      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .38 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Harlingen       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 2   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .99 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Hebbronville    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 2   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .18 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Mercedes        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 5   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .20 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Raymondville    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 1   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .69 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Rio Grande City |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 2   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .15 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| San Manuel      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 2   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .92 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Zapata          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .20 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| **Buoys and     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
| CMAN sites**    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Buoy 42058      | 1   | 99  | 1   | 40^g^ | 51  |     |     |     |
|                 | 6/0 | 9.0 | 6/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (15.0ºN 75.0ºW) | 455 |     | 455 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Buoy 42057      |     |     | 1   | 34^g^ | 39  |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | 6/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (15.0ºN 80.0ºW) |     |     | 208 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Buoy 42056      | 1   | 99  | 1   | 63^g^ | 74  |     |     |     |
|                 | 7/2 | 6.7 | 7/2 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (19.9ºN 85.1ºW) | 151 |     | 151 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Buoy 42055      | 1   | 100 | 1   | 36^g^ | 39  |     |     |     |
|                 | 9/0 | 3.6 | 9/0 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (22.0ºN 94.1ºW) | 959 |     | 959 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Buoy 42002      | 1   | 100 | 1   | 46    | 66  |     |     |     |
|                 | 9/2 | 2.6 | 9/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (25.2ºN 94.4ºW) | 150 |     | 610 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Buoy 42020      | 2   | 100 | 1   | 34    | 45  |     |     |     |
|                 | 0/0 | 6.4 | 9/1 |       |     |     |     |     |
| (26.9ºN 96.7ºW) | 850 |     | 840 |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+

^a^ Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are
listed.

^b^ Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and
land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; buoy averaging periods are 8 min.

^c^ Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

^d^ Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum
(1929 mean sea level).

^e^ 10-min average.

^f^ Estimated.

^g^ 1-min average.

Number range CHAPTERTable 4. Preliminary forecast evaluation
(heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Emily, 11-21 July 2005. Forecast
errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses.
Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face
type. Verification includes the depression stage, but does not include
the extratropical stage, if any.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 27    | 49    | 75    | 93    | 127   | 192   | 285   |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 37    | 69    | 98    | 125   | 178   | 219   | 269   |
|           | (34)  | (31)  | (29)  | (25)  | (19)  | (15)  | (11)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | 35    | 59    | 84    | 110   | 153   | 179   | 165   |
|           | (40)  | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (30)  | (26)  | (21)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | 34    | 51    | 68    | 87    | 117   | 135   | **136 |
|           | (39)  | (36)  | (35)  | (33)  | (28)  | (24)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 16)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | 34    | 60    | 83    | 99    | 122   | 131   | **152 |
|           | (40)  | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (30)  | (25)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 22)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | 28    | 47    | 68    | 83    | 117   | 165   | 208   |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (28)  | (24)  | (18)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 32    | 56    | 80    | 100   | 138   | 167   | 162   |
|           | (38)  | (36)  | (34)  | (32)  | (28)  | (24)  | (20)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| A98E      | 29    | 50    | 73    | 96    | 142   | 183   | 244   |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| A9UK      | 30    | 52    | 81    | 113   | 168   |       |       |
|           | (20)  | (19)  | (18)  | (17)  | (15)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 29    | 45    | 62    | 78    | 119   | 151   | 203   |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | 30    | 48    | 66    | 85    | 138   | 167   | 176   |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 45    | 86    | 123   | 155   | 203   | 230   | 208   |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CONU      | 28    | 47    | 68    | 87    | 115   | 122   | **110 |
|           | (39)  | (37)  | (35)  | (33)  | (29)  | (25)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 20)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | 27    | 41    | 60    | 78    | 103   | 110   | **75  |
|           | (37)  | (34)  | (33)  | (31)  | (26)  | (22)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 14)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | 28    | 46    | 66    | 85    | 120   | 137   | **127 |
|           | (35)  | (35)  | (34)  | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  | (     |
|           |       |       |       |       |       |       | 18)** |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 22    | 38    | 58    | 75    | 94    | 109   | 153   |
|           | (41)  | (39)  | (36)  | (35)  | (31)  | (27)  | (23)  |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 42    | 75    | 107   | 138   | 202   | 236   | 310   |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (649) | (535) |
|           | 3400) | 3116) | 2848) | 2575) | 2117) |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 1995-2004 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 5. Watch and warning summary for Hurricane
Emily, 11-21 July 2005.

  -------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Date/Time   Action                            Location
  (UTC)                                         
  ----------- --------------------------------- ---------------------------
  12 / 1500   Tropical Storm Watch issued       Tobago

  12 / 1500   Hurricane Watch issued            Barbados, Grenada,
                                                Grenadines, St. Vincent,
                                                and St. Lucia

  12 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch changed to   Tobago
              Tropical Storm Warning and        
              Hurricane Watch                   

  12 / 2100   Hurricane Watch changed to        Barbados, Grenada,
              Hurricane Warning                 Grenadines, St. Vincent,
                                                and St. Lucia

  12 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch issued       Martinique

  13 / 0300   Tropical Storm Warning changed to Tobago
              Hurricane Warning                 

  13 / 0300   Tropical Storm Warning issued     Trinidad

  13 / 0300   Hurricane Watch issued            Trinidad

  13 / 0900   Tropical Storm Warning issued     Barbados

  13 / 0900   Tropical Storm Warning issued     Pedernales to Cumana

  13 / 0900   Hurricane Warning discontinued    Barbados

  13 / 1500   Tropical Storm Watch issued       Cumana to Caracas

  13 / 1800   Hurricane Warning changed to      Tobago, Grenada,
              Tropical Storm Warning            Grenadines, St. Vincent,
                                                and St. Lucia

  13 / 1800   Tropical Storm Watch discontinued Martinique

  13 / 1800   Hurricane Watch discontinued      All

  13 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch issued       Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao

  14 / 0200   Tropical Storm Warning changed to Grenada, Grenadines, St.
              Hurricane Warning                 Vincent, and St. Lucia

  14 / 0300   Tropical Storm Watch discontinued Cumana to Caracas

  14 / 0300   Tropical Storm Warning            Barbados
              discontinued                      

  14 / 0300   Tropical Storm Warning modified   Pedernales to Punta Fijo
              to                                

  14 / 0600   Tropical Storm Warning issued     St. Lucia

  14 / 0600   Hurricane Warning discontinued    St. Lucia

  14 / 0900   Tropical Storm Warning            Trinidad and Tobago
              discontinued                      

  14 / 0900   Hurricane Warning changed to      Grenadines and St. Vincent
              Tropical Storm Warning            

  14 / 1200   Tropical Storm Watch changed to   Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao
              Tropical Storm Warning            

  14 / 1200   Tropical Storm Warning            Grenadines, St. Vincent,
              discontinued                      and St. Lucia

  14 / 1200   Hurricane Warning changed to      Grenada
              Tropical Storm Warning            

  14 / 1500   Tropical Storm Watch issued       Punta Salinas to
                                                Port-Au-Prince

  14 / 1500   Tropical Storm Warning            Grenada
              discontinued                      

  14 / 1800   Tropical Storm Warning modified   Cumana to Punta Fijo
              to                                

  14 / 2100   Tropical Storm Watch changed to   Punta Salinas to
              Tropical Storm Warning            Port-Au-Prince

  14 / 2100   Hurricane Watch issued            Jamaica

  15 / 0300   Tropical Storm Warning modified   Caracas to Punta Fijo
              to                                

  15 / 0300   Hurricane Watch issued            Cayman Is.

  15 / 0900   Hurricane Watch changed to        Jamaica
              Hurricane Warning                 

  15 / 1200   Tropical Storm Warning            Caracas to Punta Fijo
              discontinued                      

  15 / 1200   Tropical Storm Warning            Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao
              discontinued                      

  15 / 2100   Hurricane Watch changed to        Cayman Is.
              Hurricane Warning                 

  16 / 0600   Tropical Storm Warning modified   Haiti/DR border to
              to                                Port-Au-Prince

  16 / 1500   Tropical Storm Watch issued       Belize City to BEL/MX
                                                border

  16 / 1500   Hurricane Watch issued            Chetumal to Cabo Catoche

  16 / 1800   Tropical Storm Warning            All
              discontinued                      

  16 / 2100   Hurricane Watch modified to       Chetumal to Progreso

  17 / 0300   Tropical Storm Watch changed to   Belize City to BEL/MX
              Tropical Storm Warning            border

  17 / 0300   Hurricane Watch discontinued      Chetumal to Progreso

  17 / 0300   Hurricane Watch issued            Cabo Catoche to Campeche

  17 / 0300   Hurricane Warning issued          Chetumal to Cabo Catoche

  17 / 0900   Hurricane Warning discontinued    Jamaica

  17 / 1200   Tropical Storm Warning issued     Grand Cayman

  17 / 1200   Hurricane Warning discontinued    Cayman Is.

  17 / 1500   Tropical Storm Warning            Grand Cayman
              discontinued                      

  17 / 1500   Hurricane Watch discontinued      All

  17 / 1500   Hurricane Warning modified to     Chetumal to Campeche

  18 / 0900   Hurricane Watch issued            Cabo Rojo to Baffin Bay

  18 / 1200   Tropical Storm Warning            All
              discontinued                      

  18 / 1500   Hurricane Warning modified to     Cabo Catoche to Campeche

  18 / 2100   Tropical Storm Warning issued     Texas/Mexico border to
                                                Baffin Bay

  18 / 2100   Tropical Storm Warning issued     Cabo Rojo to La Cruz

  18 / 2100   Hurricane Watch modified to       Texas/Mexico border to
                                                Baffin Bay

  18 / 2100   Hurricane Warning discontinued    Cabo Catoche to Campeche

  18 / 2100   Hurricane Warning issued          La Cruz to Texas/Mexico
                                                Border

  19 / 0900   Tropical Storm Warning modified   Port Mansfield to Baffin
              to                                Bay

  19 / 0900   Hurricane Watch modified to       Port Mansfield to Baffin
                                                Bay

  19 / 0900   Hurricane Warning modified to     La Cruz to Port Mansfield

  20 / 0900   Hurricane Watch changed to        Port Mansfield to Baffin
              Tropical Storm Warning            Bay

  20 / 1500   Tropical Storm Warning modified   Port Mansfield to
              to                                Brownsville

  20 / 1500   Hurricane Warning modified to     La Cruz to Texas/Mexico
                                                border

  20 / 2100   Tropical Storm Warning            Port Mansfield to
              discontinued                      Brownsville

  20 / 2100   Tropical Storm Warning            Cabo Rojo to La Cruz
              discontinued                      

  20 / 2100   Tropical Storm Warning issued     La Pesca to Texas/Mexico
                                                border

  20 / 2100   Hurricane Warning discontinued    All

  21 / 0300   Tropical Storm Warning            All
              discontinued                      
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------

![](media/image1.wmf){width="7.623611111111111in"
height="5.873611111111111in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane Emily,
11-21 July 2005.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="7.75in" height="5.3277777777777775in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 2. Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Emily, 11-21
July 2005. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation using
90%, 80%, and 80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb, 850
mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde observations include actual
10 m winds (sfc), as well as surface estimates derived from the mean
wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind sounding (LLM), and from the
sounding boundary layer mean (MBL). Objective Dvorak estimates represent
linear averages over a three-hour period centered on the nominal
observation time. Thin solid vertical lines indicate landfalls.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="7.75in" height="5.3180555555555555in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 3. Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Emily, 11-21 July
2005. Objective Dvorak estimates represent linear averages over a
three-hour period centered on the nominal observation time. Thin solid
vertical lines indicate landfalls.