Session No. 38

Course Title: Coastal Hazards Management

# Session Title: Hazard Mitigation Planning II

# Author: Anna K. Schwab, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

**Time: 50 minutes**

**Objectives:**

> **38.1** Group 1 Presentation: "Identify Potential Natural Hazards,"
> followed by class critique

**38.2** Become familiar with the second step in the mitigation planning
process: "Assess Hazard Vulnerability."

**Scope:**

Session 38 will begin with a student presentation on the first step in
the planning process: Identify Potential Natural Hazards, followed by a
brief class discussion and critique.

The remaining class time will be devoted to a lecture on the second step
in the planning process, "Assess Hazard Vulnerability," based in large
part on the assigned reading material: *Keeping Natural Hazards From
Becoming Disasters: A Mitigation Planning Guidebook for Local
Governments*.

**Readings:**

*Student and Instructor Readings:*

NC Division of Emergency Management, Hazard Mitigation Section, Risk
Assessment and Planning Branch. May, 2003. *Keeping Natural Hazards From
Becoming Disasters: A Mitigation Planning Guidebook for Local
Governments*, pp. 22-55.

> (Available in pdf format from NC Division of Emergency Management:
> <http://www.dem.dcc.state.nc.us/mitigation/planning_publications.htm>)

FEMA. August 2001. *Understanding Your Risks: Identifying Hazards and
Estimating Losses*. Washington, D.C.: FEMA 386-2, pp. 3-1 through 3-31,
"inventory assets;" 4-1 through 4-37, "estimate losses."

## PowerPoint Slides

# PowerPoint 38.1 Tasks in Step Two: Assess Hazard Vulnerability

# PowerPoint 38.2 Tasks in Step Two: Assess Hazard Vulnerability- continued

**PowerPoint 38.3** Task 2.1 Describe the Community

# PowerPoint 38.4 Map 1: Basemap Features

**PowerPoint 38.5** Map 2: Basemap

**PowerPoint 38.6** Identify Critical Facilities

## PowerPoint 38.7 Types of Critical Facilities

**PowerPoint 38.8** Map 3: Critical Facilities

**PowerPoint 38.9** Map 4: Natural Hazard Areas

**PowerPoint 38.10** Map 5: All Hazards Map

**PowerPoint 38.11** Map 6: Hazards Intersect with Community Features

**PowerPoint 38.12** Map 7: Planning Areas

## PowerPoint 38.13 Worksheet #2: Geographic Planning Area Vulnerability Assessment

**PowerPoint 38.15** Worksheet #2: Geographic Planning Area
Vulnerability Assessment, page 2

PowerPoint 38.16 Map 8: Current Conditions in the Riverine Hazards
Planning Area

PowerPoint 38.17 Map 9: Current Conditions in the Coastal Hazards
Planning Area

PowerPoint 38.18 Map 10: Existing Zoning in the Riverine Hazards
Planning Area

PowerPoint 38.19 Map 11: Existing Zoning in the Coastal Hazards Planning
Area

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**General Requirements:**

The first 25 minutes of the session will consist of the student
presentation by Group 1 on the first step in the planning process:
"Identify Potential Natural Hazards." The Instructor will then lead a
class discussion and critique of the presentation for the next 5-10
minutes.

The remaining class time should be presented as lecture supported by
PowerPoint slides.

**Objective 38.1** Group 1 Presentation: "Identify Potential Natural
Hazards," followed by class critique

**Requirements:**

The instructor should make sure that the students have access to all
equipment and materials needed for their presentation, such as
PowerPoint projector, overhead projector, white board, etc. The
instructor may wish to designate a time-keeper to make sure the
presentation is made within the amount of allotted time (25 minutes,
with about 5-10 minutes of critique by other students.

**Remarks:**

**Suggested questions** to pose regarding the presentation of Step One
in the planning process:

1.  Are all the types of natural hazards that threaten the community
    covered? If not, has Group 1 presented reasons for omitting some
    hazards while including others?

2.  Is a hazard history presented that outlines how past hazard events
    have impacted the community? Are maps of past hazard events
    included?

3.  Does the Group describe conditions in the community that make it
    more or less prone to each of the hazards identified (topography,
    bodies of water, changes in development patterns, population shifts,
    etc.)?

4.  Is the likelihood of occurrence indicated for each of the hazards
    identified?

5.  Is the intensity of each hazard estimated? Are the levels of
    intensity described in relative terms and/or according to standard
    scales?

6.  Is the potential level of impact estimated for each type of hazard?
    Does the estimated impact take into account a rough estimate of the
    amount of development and population levels in the community?

7.  Has Group 1 formulated conclusions? Are the hazards ranked according
    to severity? Is the ranking system explained? Do the conclusions
    make sense based on the hazard information collected as presented?

8.  Has each member of the Group prepared a narrative description of the
    hazards and their effects on the community?

9.  Are sources of data and information listed?

10. Is Worksheet \# 1 completed? Does it make sense based on the hazard
    identification information presented?

**Objective 38.2** Become familiar with the second step in the
mitigation planning process: "Assess Hazard Vulnerability."

**Requirements:**

The content should be presented as lecture, supported by PowerPoint
slides.

The following slides will be used during this objective:

# PowerPoint 38.1 Tasks in Step Two: Assess Hazard Vulnerability

# PowerPoint 38.2 Tasks in Step Two: Assess Hazard Vulnerability- continued

**PowerPoint 38.3** Task 2.1 Describe the Community

# PowerPoint 38.4 Map 1: Basemap Features

**PowerPoint 38.5** Map 2: Basemap

**PowerPoint 38.6** Identify Critical Facilities

## PowerPoint 38.7 Types of Critical Facilities

**PowerPoint 38.8** Map 3: Critical Facilities

**PowerPoint 38.9** Map 4: Natural Hazard Areas

**PowerPoint 38.10** Map 5: All Hazards Map

**PowerPoint 38.12** Map 6: Hazards Intersect with Community Features

**PowerPoint 38.13** Map 7: Planning Areas

## PowerPoint 38.14 Worksheet #2: Geographic Planning Area Vulnerability Assessment

PowerPoint 38.15 Worksheet #2: Geographic Planning Area Vulnerability
Assessment, page 2

PowerPoint 38.16 Map 8: Current Conditions in the Riverine Hazards
Planning Area

PowerPoint 38.17 Map 9: Current Conditions in the Coastal Hazards
Planning Area

PowerPoint 38.18 Map 10: Existing Zoning in the Riverine Hazards
Planning Area

PowerPoint 38.19 Map 11: Existing Zoning in the Coastal Hazards Planning
Area

**Remarks:**

-   Step Two of the planning process will assess the number of people
    and amount of existing property at risk from the hazards that were
    identified during Step One.

-   Step Two also determines whether the community is encouraging or
    allowing development that could be built in hazard areas.

    -   Step Two builds on the information gathered earlier, and
        analyzes development patterns to gauge the vulnerability level
        of the community.

**[Tasks in Step Two:]{.underline}**

> **\[PowerPoint 38.1 Tasks in Step Two: Assess Hazard Vulnerability\]**
>
> **\[PowerPoint 38.2 Tasks in Step Two: Assess Hazard
> Vulnerability-continued\]**

-   A summary of the tasks in Step Two includes:

> **2.1** Describe your community
>
> **2.1(a)** Describe major physical features
>
> **2.1(b)** Identify developed areas, undeveloped areas, and scheduled
> infrastructure areas.
>
> **2.2** Identify critical facilities
>
> **2.3** Identify hazardous locations
>
> **2.3(a)** describe individual hazard areas
>
> **2.3(b)** prepare a composite (all-hazards) exposure description
>
> **2.4** Identify where hazardous areas intersect with community
> features
>
> **2.5** Locate repetitive loss structures
>
> **2.6** Create and analyze Geographic Planning Areas
>
> **2.6(a)** Create Geographic Planning Areas
>
> **2.6(b)** Analyze the vulnerability of the Geographic Planning Areas
> by hazard (Worksheet #2)
>
> **2.7** Prepare an overview and conclusion for each Geographic
> Planning Area
>
> **2.7(a)** Prepare an overview and conclusion of the current
> vulnerability of each Geographic Planning Area
>
> **2.7(b)** Prepare an overview and conclusion of the potential future
> vulnerability of each Geographic Planning Area

-   We will go over these steps briefly today, as explained further in
    the reading material, *Keeping Natural Hazards From Becoming
    Disasters: A Mitigation Planning Guidebook for Local Governments*.

### A Word About Mapping

-   Mapping the various tasks in Step Two is an integral part of
    assessing vulnerability. Maps are useful to **graphically display
    hazard locations and vulnerability**.

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-   Use of **Geographic Information Systems (GIS)** as a tool to prepare
    hazard maps is one way. GIS is not a requirement, however.

    -   Many communities that need to prepare hazard mitigation plans do
        not have the equipment, personnel or resources to prepare maps
        using GIS. These communities can use more **rudimentary
        map-making techniques** to produce the same effect.

    -   The important thing is that the maps contain enough detail to
        show which areas of the community are hazardous, and where
        current and future development intersects with these hazardous
        areas.

### 

### Task 2.1 Describe the Community

This task involves creating an accurate description of the community as
it is now, and what it may look like in the future.

> **\[PowerPoint 38.3 Task 2.1 Describe the Community\]**

-   **Task 2.1(a) Describe major physical features**

    -   This involves a narrative description and maps of the **baseline
        features** of the community, including the location of:

        -   Jurisdictional boundaries

> (Municipal and extra-territorial jurisdiction)

-   Number of square miles or acres

-   Major infrastructure (roads, railways, etc)

-   Natural features (rivers, coastline, high tidelines, etc.)

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-   **Task 2.1(b) Identify developed areas, undeveloped areas, and
    scheduled infrastructure areas**

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-   **Developed Areas:** Prepare a rough estimate of the **types of
    structures** in each developed area**,** and their locations**.**
    Include structures such as:

    -   Residential

    -   Commercial

    -   Industrial, etc.

    -   Any vacant lots among developed parcels

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    -   **Resources** for describing developed areas include:

        -   Local land use maps

        -   Tax data

        -   Aerial photography

        -   Census data

        -   Windshield survey

-   **Undeveloped areas**: Describe the location and major features of
    undeveloped areas. Include elements such as:

    -   Type of landcover

    -   Current ownership patterns

    -   Any structures interspersed in undeveloped areas

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-   **Resources** for describing undeveloped areas include:

    -   Local land use maps

    -   Tax data

    -   Aerial photography

    -   Windshield survey

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    -   Also describe the **potential future condition** of these
        undeveloped areas

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-   What might be built there in the future?

-   Are currently vacant lands zoned for development?

-   Can they be subdivided?

-   Are there long-range plans for undeveloped parcels?

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-   **Resources** for describing potential future conditions:

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-   Local zoning ordinance

-   Local subdivision ordinance

-   Floodplain management plan

-   Comprehensive plan

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-   Also describe **scheduled infrastructure areas:** A strong predictor
    for which undeveloped or underdeveloped areas will be built up in
    the future is to determine if public infrastructure and services are
    scheduled for these locations. Locate planned infrastructure such
    as:

    -   roads

    -   water & sewer

    -   government services

    -   public transportation

    -   schools

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    -   **Resources** for describing planned infrastructure areas:

        -   land use plans

        -   local capital improvement plan

        -   state department of transportation

        -   rural development centers

        -   development trends

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-   **Mapping Task 2.1**

> **\[PowerPoint 38.4 Map 1: Basemap Features\]**
>
> **\[PowerPoint 38.5 Map 2: Basemap\]**

-   Create or obtain a basemap that **identifies pertinent community
    features**:

    -   Corporate limits

    -   Special districts

    -   Federal and state-owned lands

    -   Roads, highways, railways

    -   Water features

    -   Natural features

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    -   Also map the location of **current development** and **scheduled
        infrastructure**

### Task 2.2 Identify critical facilities

-   This task involves **identifying, describing, and locating** all
    **critical facilities** in the community.

> **\[PowerPoint 38.6 Identify Critical Facilities\]**

-   Critical facilities should be described in terms of

    -   Function

    -   Size

    -   Replacement value

    -   Site location

    -   Impact on community if facility were incapacitated

-   **Types of critical facilities** that should be identified:

## \[PowerPoint 38.7 Types of Critical Facilities\]

-   Water & wastewater treatment plants

-   Power generating plants

-   Schools

-   Hospitals

-   Emergency shelters

-   Fire/police stations

-   Government buildings

-   Libraries

-   Airports

-   Daycare centers

-   Retirement homes

-   Hazardous waste sites

-   Major infrastructure

-   Cultural resources/historic sites

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-   Some communities also choose to identify facilities that are
    **important during and immediately following a hazard event**, such
    as:

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-   grocery stores

-   fuel stations

-   pharmacies

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-   **Mapping Task 2.2**

    -   **Locate** each of the **critical facilities** that have been
        identified on the **basemap** created in Task 2.1

> **\[PowerPoint 38.8 Map 3: Critical Facilities\]**

### Task 2.3 Identify hazardous locations

This task focuses on those areas of the community that are subject to
the natural hazards identified earlier in Step One.

-   **Task 2.3(a) Describe individual hazard areas**

    -   This involves a narrative description and maps of all the areas
        of the community that are subject to natural hazards.

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-   **Mapping Task 2.3(a)**

> **\[PowerPoint 38.9 Map 4: Natural Hazard Areas\]**

-   Display the geographic boundaries of each natural hazard on a
    separate map.

-   **Resources** for mapping 2.3(a) include:

    -   Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs)

    -   Hurricane and storm inundation maps

    -   Erosion rate maps

    -   Topographical maps

    -   Seismic zone maps

    -   Highwater marks

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-   **Task 2.3(b) Prepare a composite exposure description**

    -   This task involves a description and map of the exposure of the
        entire community to all of the identified hazards.

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-   **Mapping Task 2.3(b)**

> **\[PowerPoint 38.10 Map 5: All Hazards Map\]**

-   An "all-hazards" map combines all the maps prepared in Task 2.3(a)
    together in one map

-   The all-hazards map can be prepared by layering each of the
    individual hazard maps on top of each other.

### Task 2.4 Identify where hazardous areas intersect with community features

-   This task identifies what features of the community are in locations
    that intersect with hazard areas. The **narrative description** will
    give a good picture of the **community's vulnerability**.

    -   Combine the information discovered in Task 2.1 (baseline
        features) and Task 2.2 (critical facilities) with the
        information on the location of hazard areas.

    -   Describe which critical facilities, developed areas, and
        scheduled infrastructure areas are exposed to which hazards.

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-   **Mapping Task 2.4**

> **\[PowerPoint 38.11 Map 6: Hazards Intersect with Community
> Features\]**

-   To show the **relationship** between **hazardous areas** and the
    community's **infrastructure, facilities and development**, the All
    Hazards Map is overlayed on the Critical Facilities Map.

-   Areas on **Map 6** in ***PowerPoint 38.11*** show that much of the
    area that is scheduled for infrastructure is exposed to flooding,
    storm surge and landslide. Areas where development is already
    located are exposed to flooding, storm surge, wildfire and
    landslide. The entire community is subject to high winds.

### Task 2.5 Locate repetitive loss structures

-   A major thrust of any local mitigation effort should include removal
    of structures from areas that have repeatedly been proven hazardous.

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-   FEMA's definition of repetitive loss property is one for which two
    or more flood insurance claims of a certain amount have been paid
    within any 10-year period since 1978.

    -   Describe in narrative form the number and location of repetitive
        loss structures in the community.

### Task 2.6 Create and Analyze Geographic Planning Areas

The next task in the vulnerability assessment is to break the hazard
areas that have thus far been identified into **more manageable units**
for planning purposes. These units are called "Geographic Planning
Areas.

-   **Task 2.6(a) Create Geographic Planning Areas**

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-   **Basic criteria** for establishing Planning Areas include:

    -   Type of hazard

    -   Municipal boundaries

    -   Probability and magnitude of hazard threats

    -   Unincorporated portions of a County with distinct hazard threats

    -   Density of developed areas

    -   Natural resource features

    -   Land ownership patterns

    -   Amount of scheduled and current infrastructure

    -   Number and type of critical facilities

    -   Number of repetitive loss structures

    -   Future development trends and forecasts

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-   **Mapping Task 2.6(a)**

    -   Illustrate the boundaries of the Geographic Planning Areas on
        top of the "Hazards Intersect with Community Features Map"
        prepared in Task 2.4

> **\[PowerPoint 38.12 Map 7: Planning Areas\]**

-   Note some of the characteristics of the **Riverine Geographic
    Planning** Area in ***PowerPoint 38.12***

    -   The western border of the Riverine Area follows the boundaries
        of the floodplain, including historically flooded areas that lie
        outside the FIRM.

    -   The northern and southern borders are defined by the
        extraterritorial jurisdiction.

    -   The Area is subject to flooding, storm surge, and high winds.

    -   The Area has dense development, and scheduled infrastructure.

    -   Much undeveloped land remains here

    -   There is a school (also an emergency shelter), a wastewater
        plant and an historic site

-   Note some of the characteristics of the **Coastal Hazards Geographic
    Planning Area** in ***PowerPoint 38.12***

    -   The Coastal Area is defined by the extent of storm surge on the
        west and high tide line on the east.

    -   The Area is subject to flooding, storm surge, erosion, and high
        winds.

    -   Much of the land is developed, with a small acreage of
        undeveloped parkland along the beach

    -   A small amount of land in the northern most section is
        undeveloped, with scheduled infrastructure.

    -   There is a lighthouse and a school.

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-   **Task 2.6(b) Analyze the Vulnerability of the Geographic Planning
    Areas**

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-   **Worksheet #2,** ***"Geographic Planning Area Vulnerability
    Assessment"*** will help with Task 2.6(b). Worksheet #2 is divided
    into two sections:

    -   **Current Conditions**, where present vulnerability is
        inventoried, and

    -   **Potential Future Conditions**, where future vulnerability is
        indicated by projecting the number of people and the amount of
        property that could be located in hazardous areas if the land is
        developed as allowed under the current regulatory regime.

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-   Worksheet #2 is also divided into two pages:

    -   **Private development** is inventoried on the first page, and

    -   **Public investment** is inventoried on the second page.

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-   Filling out **Worksheet #2,** page 1: ***Current* Conditions** of
    ***Private Development***

## \[PowerPoint 38.13 Worksheet #2: Geographic Planning Area Vulnerability Assessment\]

-   List the hazard to be addressed at the top of Worksheet #2

-   Conduct an inventory of existing population and properties in each
    Geographic Planning Area ("Current Conditions"):

-   [Number of Existing Private Buildings]{.underline}: A building count
    for the different types of private property can be established in
    various ways: count each type of building during a "windshield
    survey" (tour of the Planning Area); or use county tax assessment
    records to inventory the number of each type of building

-   [Current Value:]{.underline} Refer to the county tax assessor's
    records for the tax value of the private structures that have been
    counted.

-   [Current Number of People]{.underline}: Tax records, Census block
    data, or local population figures can be used to estimate the number
    of people in each type of private building

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-   Filling out **Worksheet #2**, page 2: ***Current* Conditions** of
    ***Public Development***

> \[PowerPoint 38.14 Worksheet #2: Geographic Planning Area
> Vulnerability Assessment, page 2\]

-   [Number of Existing Public Buildings and Critical
    Facilities]{.underline}: Refer to the "Critical Facilities" that
    were described and mapped earlier in Task 2.2 to determine the
    number of public buildings and critical facilities located in each
    Planning Area.

-   [Current Replacement Value]{.underline}: Calculate the replacement
    value for each type of existing public building and facility using
    local estimates.

-   [Current Number of People]{.underline}: Calculate the number of
    people that work in each type of public building and facility.

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-   Filling out **Worksheet #2,** page 1: **Potential *Future*
    Conditions** of ***Private Development***

## \[Refer again to PowerPoint 38.13 Worksheet #2: Geographic Planning Area Vulnerability Assessment\]

-   This section of the Worksheet helps you to estimate the projected
    population and number and value of buildings that could potentially
    be located in each Geographic Planning Area. Some of this land may
    have development potential, and should be assessed in terms of what
    could be built there.

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-   [Projected Number of Private Buildings]{.underline}: Estimate the
    number of additional private buildings of each type that could be
    built in each Planning Area based on regulations contained in the
    local zoning and subdivision ordinances, comprehensive plan or
    capital facilities plan. Add the estimates of potential buildings to
    the figures for current buildings to get an estimate of the total
    number of buildings that could be located there in the future.

-   [Projected Value]{.underline}: To get a rough estimate of private
    property values, multiply the estimated future number of buildings
    times the average present value for that type of building. Add in
    any reliable measures of appreciation and inflation rates for
    private property in the community. Add the estimate of value for
    future property to the values for current properties to get an idea
    of the total amount of value that could be at risk in the future.

-   [Projected Number of People:]{.underline} Estimate how many more
    people will be in the Planning Area in the future if current land
    use policies remain unchanged. Use local projections of population
    growth or rely on past growth trends. Add this figure to the number
    of current people to get an estimate of the number of people that
    will be located in this Planning Area in the future.

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-   Filling out **Worksheet #2,** page 2: **Potential *Future*
    Conditions** of ***Public Development***

## \[Refer again to PowerPoint 38.14 Worksheet #2: Geographic Planning Area Vulnerability Assessment, page 2\]

-   [Projected Number of Public Buildings and Critical
    Facilities]{.underline}: Calculate the number of public buildings
    and critical facilities that might be built in the Planning Area in
    the future according to local comprehensive plan, capital
    improvements plan, and other local documents that determine the
    provision of public infrastructure and amenities in the community.
    Add this number to the number that currently exist to estimate the
    total number of public facilities and buildings that may be located
    in the Planning Area in the future.

-   [Projected Replacement Value]{.underline}: Estimate the projected
    replacement value for each type of facility or public building. Add
    this figure to the amounts listed for each type of current buildings
    and facilities for a total of the value at risk in the future.

-   [Projected Number of People]{.underline}: Based on the number of
    projected public buildings and facilities, estimate how many people
    would work or go to school in each building. Add this number to the
    number of people currently at risk.

-   [Add the Totals]{.underline}: Add the subtotals of each column from
    page one and page two of Worksheet #2. This will provide a total
    count of the number of people (both residents and employees), the
    number of structures (both private and public), and values (both tax
    assessment and replacement values) for current conditions and
    potential future conditions.

### Task 2.7 Prepare an overview and conclusion of vulnerability for each Geographic Planning Area

This task involves creating an overview and conclusion for both current
and future vulnerability for each Geographic Planning Area, using
Worksheet #2.

-   **Task 2.7(a) Prepare and overview and conclusion of the *current*
    vulnerability of each Planning Area.**

    -   This involves a **narrative description** and maps of the hazard
        **vulnerability that currently exists** for each structure type,
        as well as the number of people that are at risk in each
        Planning Area.

    -   Add **additional details** that were not included on Worksheet
        #2, such as:

        -   Special populations (day-care centers, elderly, non-English
            speakers)

        -   Seasonal fluctuations in population

        -   Evacuation capacity of the transportation system

        -   Mobile home parks

        -   Repetitive loss structures

        -   Degree of structural mitigation already in place (e.g.,
            elevation, floodproofing, windproofing)

    -   Formulate **conclusions** as to the current vulnerability of
        each Planning Area:

        -   Describe the nature of the risk to people and property

        -   Quantify the problem with reference to the Totals recorded
            in Worksheet #2 of the number of lives that are in danger,
            the number of structures at risk, the dollar amount of the
            tax base and public investment that is exposed to natural
            hazards

        -   Does this problem need to be addressed?

        -   Provide the justification for later formulation of goals and
            strategies to combat the problems identified in this step

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-   **Mapping Task 2.7(a)**

    -   This mapping task allows you to "zoom in" on individual planning
        areas and map their vulnerability in detail. Refer to Worksheet
        #2, and display on a map the pertinent features for current and
        future conditions.

> **\[PowerPoint 38.15 Map 8: Current Conditions in the Riverine Hazards
> Planning Area\]**

-   Note some of the **characteristics** of the **Current Conditions in
    the Riverine Hazards Planning Area** in ***PowerPoint 38.15:***

    -   Two major low-density residential neighborhoods, the
        northernmost one of which lies outside the community's municipal
        boundaries but within its ETJ.

    -   A small commercial center with a grocery store and abandoned
        warehouse.

    -   A daycare center, school, historic church and wastewater
        treatment plant

    -   Numerous repetitive damage structures

    -   Western bank of the river is currently undeveloped

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-   When this map is compared with the **All-Hazards Map** (as shown in
    *PowerPoint 38.9*), it is clear that development in the Riverine
    Planning Area is subject to:

    -   flooding

    -   high winds

    -   storm surge

    -   wildfire

-   Map 8 graphically illustrates the extent of the Riverine Hazards
    Planning Area's current vulnerability.

\[PowerPoint 38.16 Map 9: Current Conditions in the Coastal Hazards
Planning Area\]

-   Note some of the **characteristics** of the **Current Conditions in
    the Coastal Hazards Planning Area** in ***PowerPoint 38.16:***

    -   Current land uses in the southern end of the Area are commercial
        development along the beach, including several hotels and
        high-density residential development west of the road that runs
        parallel to the beach.

    -   The remaining land is used as high-density residential

    -   One open space/recreational beach area is in the central portion

    -   A few acres of undeveloped land remain outside the municipal
        boundary to the north

    -   A junkyard, rest home, school, lighthouse

    -   Several repetitive loss structures

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-   When this map is compared with the **All-Hazards Map** (as shown in
    *PowerPoint 38.10*), it is clear that development in the Coastal
    Hazards Planning Area is subject to:

    -   flooding

    -   high winds

    -   storm surge

    -   erosion

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-   Map 9 graphically illustrates the extent of the Coastal Hazards
    Planning Area's current vulnerability

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-   **Task 2.7(b) Prepare and overview and conclusion of the *potential
    future* vulnerability of each Planning Area.**

    -   This involves a **narrative description** and maps of the
        potential hazard **vulnerability** for structures and people
        that could be located in each Planning Area in the future.

    -   This task focuses on the right-hand side of Worksheet #2. The
        narrative overview should include additional information such
        as:

        -   Does the community anticipate that significant increases in
            the amount of development and the number of people could
            occur in the different Planning Areas?

        -   If so, are these increases permitted under the current
            regulatory scheme, including zoning, subdivision, capital
            improvement plans, etc.?

        -   Does the current zoning allow for higher densities in
            hazardous areas?

        -   Are future critical facilities and infrastructure planned
            for the Planning Area?

        -   Are there policies in place to lessen the hazard impact on
            new development (e.g., flood hazard prevention ordinance)

        -   Will transportation routes have enough capacity to evacuate
            future populations?

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-   **Conclusions** as to the future vulnerability of each Planning Area
    should provide **the basis for policy recommendations** that will be
    made later in the planning process.

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-   **Mapping Task 2.7(b)**

    -   Show on a map what could occur in each Planning Areas based on
        the information collected on Worksheet #2, and the information
        described in the overview of potential future vulnerability.

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-   The local zoning map identifies density limits and types of use that
    are allowed.

-   Designate which areas are scheduled for infrastructure improvements
    and the locations of any proposed critical facilities

-   Identify existing repetitive loss structures that have not been
    targeted for demolition or removal.

> **\[PowerPoint 38.17 Map 10: Existing Zoning in the Riverine Hazards
> Planning Area\]**

-   Note some of the **characteristics** of the **Existing Zoning in the
    Riverine Hazards Planning Area** in ***PowerPoint 38.17:***

    -   The entire Planning Area has the potential to become much more
        vulnerable in the future

    -   The western bank of the river is zoned to allow high-density
        residential development.

    -   Infrastructure is scheduled to support the impending development

    -   On the eastern bank of the river, current open space is zoned
        for low-density residential

    -   The community has no plans to remove the wastewater treatment
        plant, the historic site, daycare center, school grocery store,
        abandoned warehouse, or the repetitive loss structures, so they
        will remain there in the future

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    -   This map graphically illustrates a **vulnerability scenario**
        that holds the **potential for a future disaster.**

> **\[PowerPoint 38.18 Map 11: Existing Zoning in the Coastal Hazards
> Planning Area\]**

-   Note some of the **characteristics** of the **Existing Zoning in the
    Coastal Hazards Planning Area** in ***PowerPoint 38.18:***

    -   The entire Planning Area has the potential to become even more
        vulnerable in the future

    -   The two remaining open spaces are anticipated to be developed

    -   These areas are zoned for high-density development

    -   The northern area is scheduled for infrastructure

    -   The rest of the Planning Area is already densely developed, and
        is expected to remain so in the future

    -   There are no plans to remove the school, junkyard, or the
        repetitive damage structures

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    -   Map 11 depicts a scenario of **serious vulnerability** if the
        Planning Area is developed as allowed under the current zoning
        scheme.

**[Conclusions:]{.underline}**

-   Let's discuss briefly:

    -   What is the main point of going through a Vulnerability
        Assessment for a community?

    -   What do all the numbers mean?

    -   Why does it matter?

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    -   In order to develop an effective mitigation plan, we must
        **understand the problems** which the plan is to address**.**

        -   The Vulnerability Assessment helps us to **define the
            problem** in terms of the number of people, critical
            facilities, and value of property at risk.

        -   A vulnerability assessment takes a **snapshot look** at the
            community in terms of its position relative to natural
            hazards, in particular, the *impact* that those hazards may
            have on the community -- both now and in the future.

    -   **The Vulnerability Assessment is *not* a mitigation plan**.

        -   It serves as **background information**; it provides
            **baseline data** on which to create a plan.

        -   The numbers derived during this step in the planning process
            contribute to the **rationale for mitigation policy** that
            will be created in later steps in the planning process.

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-   The Vulnerability Assessment also very importantly serves to
    **highlight the extent of the hazard problem** for the public and
    local officials.

    -   Being presented with the numbers, including the **number of
        people** that are in harm's way, and the **dollar amount** of
        tax-base and public property that is at risk, can really **open
        their eye**s in dramatic fashion!

    -   And when these problems are displayed **graphically on a map**,
        the **need for proactive change** can become even more clear to
        local decision-makers, taxpayers, business owners and residents.

    -   This is certainly **critical** for ensuring **that mitigation
        policies** are **formulated and implemented** to lessen the
        vulnerability of the community.

.