# Development of Conceptual Models as part of Designing a Monitoring Program

A conceptual model is a visual or narrative summary that describes the
important components of the ecosystem and the interactions among them.
Development of a conceptual model helps in understanding how the diverse
components of a monitoring program interact, and promotes integration
and communication among scientists and managers from different
disciplines. Conceptual model diagrams often take the form of a \"boxes
and arrows\" diagram, whereby mutually exclusive components are shown in
boxes, and interactions among the components are shown with arrows, but
many conceptual models include tables, matrices, sentences or paragraphs
to summarize and communicate our understanding of the system.

From "Lisa Thomas -- based on experiences in developing conceptual
models for the Prairie Cluster prototype LTEM program":

Conceptual models are useful throughout the monitoring process:

-   Formalize our current understanding of the context and scope of the
    natural processes and anthropogenic stressors affecting ecological
    integrity;

-   Help expand our consideration across traditional discipline
    boundaries.

Most importantly, clear, simple models facilitate communication among:

-   scientists from different disciplines;

-   researchers and managers;

-   managers and the public.

**From "EMAP program** Olsen et al. 1992. The indicator development
strategy for the environmental monitoring and assessment program.
EPA/600/3-91/023":

-   Conceptual models define the linkages between environmental values,
    ecological endpoints, stressors, and important ecosystem components
    and processes.

-   Conceptual models explicitly define the framework for indicator
    interpretation; for example, how the response indicators relate to
    the assessment endpoints ... and how they will be used to assess
    that status.

-   One purpose of the models is to promote an integrated program and
    facilitate coordination.

-   Conceptual models are important representations of scientific
    understanding of the ecological resource for monitoring purposes.
    They must be descriptive and should clearly demonstrate linkages
    between the indicators and the environmental values being monitored.

Aspects to consider as conceptual models are developed (from Barber 1994
EMAP program):

-   Identify the structural components of the resource, interactions
    between components, inputs and outputs to surrounding resources, and
    important factors and stresses that determine the resource's
    ecological operation and sustainability.

-   Consider the temporal and spatial dynamics of the resource at
    multiple scales because information from different scales can result
    in different conclusions about resource condition.

-   Identify how major stressors of the resource are expected to impact
    its structure and function.

From Chapter 3 of "Margoluis, R. and N. Salafsky. 1998. Measures of
success: designing, managing and monitoring conservation and development
projects. Island Press, Washington D.C. 363 pp."

\"Drawing a Conceptual Model is as much an art as it is a science. You
first need to get good and reliable information (the science) that
you\'ll arrange in a diagram (the art) to represent your interpretation
of the situation at your site. Like a big puzzle, the easy part is
getting your hands on the pieces (the information\]. The difficult part
is putting these pieces together in some semblance of order. \[Unlike a
puzzle\] \... a Conceptual Model can have multiple correct arrangements.
Furthermore, the model is only a best guess - one that must be changed
and revised as you get more information and develop new insights.\"

\"A good Conceptual Model does not attempt to explain all possible
relationships or contain all possible factors that influence the target
condition but instead tries to simplify reality by containing only the
information most relevant to the model builder. One of the difficulties
in building models is to include enough information to explain what
influences the target condition without containing so much information
that the most critical factors or relationships are hidden. Too much
information can conceal important aspects of the model, while too little
information in the model leads to oversimplification which in turn leads
to a higher likelihood that the portrayal is not accurate.\"

From "Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan":

An essential step in the Applied Science Strategy is the creation of a
set of conceptual ecological models of the major wetland physiographic
regions in south Florida. These simple, nonquantitative models are an
effective means for developing a consensus regarding a set of causal
hypotheses, which explain the affects that the major anthropogenic
stressors have on the wetland ecosystems. Each model identifies the
attributes in the natural systems that are the best indicators of the
changes which have occurred as a result of the stressors. Each model
also delineates the ecological linkages between the stressors and the
attributes and the most appropriate measures for each of the attributes.
The development of a consensus regarding the components and linkages in
the conceptual models is the first step in the process of reaching
agreement on specific hydrological, ecological, and biological measures
of restoration success, and for designing a regional, performance-based
ecological monitoring program.

**From "Development of an ecosystem monitoring plan for the Sierra
Nevada"** <http://watershed.org/wmc/news/spr_98/1_sn_monitoring.html>

A detailed conceptual model of the system to be monitored is recognized
as an essential component of a scientifically credible monitoring
strategy. A conceptual model expresses ideas about components and
processes deemed to be important in a system, along with some
preliminary thoughts on how the components and processes are connected.
It is a statement about system form and function.

## More from "Monitoring ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada"

<http://www.r5.fs.fed.us/sncf/library/related_information/spam_reports/98_spam/chapter8.htm>

The challenges of managing large areas for multiple objectives can only
be met with efficient and informative monitoring strategies. However,
monitoring can not be conducted without a framework for understanding
the relationships between the components and processes of an ecosystem,
and the human activities that affect them. We created a conceptual model
to serve as such a framework to monitor the integrity of ecosystems in
the Sierra Nevada mountains of California. The conceptual model was
necessary to allow our multidisciplinary scientific team to share a
common view of the dynamics of ecosystems and to build an objective,
structured, and hierarchical process to select specific biological,
physical, and cultural attributes to monitor. The model, which we refer
to as the EPC Model, is centered on ecosystem processes, considers
humans as part of the ecosystem, and has direct application to
monitoring. The model has three levels: an ecosystem model, sphere
submodels that identify the key ecosystem processes (processes that
govern material, energy, or information

transfer) in each of five spheres (Atmosphere, Biosphere, Hydrosphere,
Lithosphere, and sociocultural Sphere), and key process submodels that
describe the how the key processes are influenced by human activities.
We identified 4 to 8 key processes in each sphere, and two metaprocesses
(Nutrient Cycling and Hydrologic Cycling) which interact with many or
all spheres.

We built a conceptual model to serve as the ecological foundation of a
monitoring strategy. The conceptual model serves as a foundation by
providing: (1) all members of the multidisciplinary scientific team with
a common view of the dynamics of all aspects of the ecosystem across
scales; and (2) an objective, structured, and hierarchical framework by
which we can select specific attributes (indicators) to monitor.

See also the 1999 report, especially chapter 3 on "Key Processes and
their Prospectuses"
<http://www.r5.fs.fed.us/sncf/library/related_information/spam_reports/99_spam/spam99.pdf>

Another large program involving conceptual model development is the
CalFed project (California State-Federal partnership to restore San
Francisco Bay-Delta watershed
<http://www.calfed.water.ca.gov/programs/cmarp/ch4b.html>

**Steps to developing a conceptual model described in Chpt. 3 of
Margoluis and Salafsky 1998:**

**1. Identify target condition**

-   Examples: Condition of park ecosystem, Ecological health of XX
    National Park

**2. Identify and list factors that influence the target condition**

-   Separate them out as Direct threats, Indirect threats, Contributing
    factors

**3. Arrange factors and target condition in diagram format**

-   Place the target condition on the right-hand side of the work space.

-   Place the direct threat factors to the left of the target condition;
    draw arrows to show how you think the direct threats relate to each
    other and the target condition.

-   Include and arrange the indirect threats in a way that shows how
    they influence the direct threats and the target condition.

-   Add the contributing factors to show how they influence the direct
    and indirect threats and the target condition.

Sierra Nevada "Ecosystem Processes Conceptual Model"

<http://www.r5.fs.fed.us/sncf/library/related_information/spam_reports/98_spam/chapter8.htm>

Level 1: 5 spheres: Atmosphere, Lithosphere, Hydrosphere, Biosphere, and
Sociocultural Sphere

Level 2: Key processes or suites of processes for each sphere (Table
8.1)

Level 3: For each process, matrices that list essential elements and
outcomes of each process, and the influence of affectors on the process.

Table 8.1. Key processes identified in each of the five spheres of
ecosystems.

+--------------------+-------------------------------------------------+
| ### Sphere         | ## Key Processes                                |
+--------------------+-------------------------------------------------+
| Atmosphere         | Hydrodynamics                                   |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Radiative Transfer                              |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Transport and Dispersion                        |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Chemical Reactions                              |
+--------------------+-------------------------------------------------+
| Biosphere          | Photosynthesis and Respiration                  |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Individual Vitality                             |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Individual Behavior                             |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Species and Population Dynamics                 |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Interspecific Interactions                      |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Community Dynamics                              |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Trophic Dynamics                                |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Evolution and Genetic Dynamics                  |
+--------------------+-------------------------------------------------+
| Hydrosphere        | Infiltration                                    |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Evapotranspiration                              |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Surface Water Movement and Storage              |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Surface Water Chemical Reactions                |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Surface Water Thermal Dynamics                  |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Subsurface Movement and Storage                 |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Subsurface Chemical Reactions                   |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Cryologic Dynamics                              |
+--------------------+-------------------------------------------------+
| Lithosphere        | Physical and Chemical Weathering                |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Erosion and Sediment Dynamics                   |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Volcanism                                       |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Tectonics                                       |
+--------------------+-------------------------------------------------+
| Sociocultural      | Human Population Dynamics                       |
| Sphere             |                                                 |
|                    | Land and Resource Transactions                  |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Economic Activity                               |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Human Social Structure Dynamics                 |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Technological Innovation and Diffusion          |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Human Communication                             |
|                    |                                                 |
|                    | Dynamics of Attitudes, Beliefs, Values, and     |
|                    | Behaviors                                       |
+--------------------+-------------------------------------------------+