Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 10/17/2006

**GAIN Report Number:** TH6107

TH6107

**Thailand**

**Grain and Feed**

**Weekly Rice Price Update**

**2006**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Gary Meyer, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy, Bangkok

**Prepared by:**

Ponnarong Prasertsri, Agricultural Specialist

**Report Highlights:**

Export prices changed insignificantly. However, the Government's plan to
release stocks will likely ease prices. Meanwhile, the impact of
flooding will likely be marginal as floodwater is expected to recede
quickly in the north and northeast.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Bangkok \[TH1\]

\[TH\]

**Indicative Prices (Week Ending Oct. 16):**

  ------------- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------- -------
  Thailand:                                                                       
  Export (FOB)                                                                    
  Prices for                                                                      
  various                                                                         
  grades of                                                                       
  rice                                                                            
  (USD/M.T.)                                                                      

                Exporter                                                 Period   
                Observations                                             Avg.     

                #1             #2     #3     #4     #5     #6     #7     CUR.     PRV.

  F WR 100 B    545            510    520    498    520    490    520    515      519

  WR 100 B      308            315    313    310    315    304    300    309      308

  PB 5%         297            317    314    312    318    311    300    310      309

  WR 5%         297            310    308    302    305    296    295    302      301

  WR 10%        292            305    305    296    300    291    290    297      296

  WR 15%        283            300    290    294    290    281    285    289      289

  WR 25%        267            277    275    286    267    265    280    274      275

  WR 35%        262            \-     \-     283    265    261    \-     268      269

  A 1 SUP       222            \-     228    219    230    219    226    224      224

  A 1 SPEC      220            \-     226    216    228    \-     224    223      223

  Source:                                                                         
  Average                                                                         
  actual prices                                                                   
  received from                                                                   
  exporters,                                                                      
  Exchange                                                                        
  rate: 37.5                                                                      
  baht/U.S.\$                                                                     
  ------------- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------- -------

**Market Tone**

Export prices changed insignificantly. However, prices are expected to
trend downward, as the Government reportedly plans to release 2005-2006
intervention stocks of white rice of around 3 million tons in
preparation for the new intervention program, starting November 1, 2006.
According to the Thai Agriculture Ministry, flood-damaged crop area
could reach 3.5 million rai (0.6 million hectare). Worst-case scenario
estimates suggest production losses could be around 1.5 million tons (1
million tons milled equivalent), out of anticipated bumper 2006/07 crops
of 27.8 million tons (18.3 million tons milled equivalent). However, if
floodwater recedes quickly, particularly in the north and northeast, the
production losses from flooding will be marginal. Meanwhile, foreign
buyers reportedly delayed buying decisions until the end of this month
as they expect Thai rice prices to fall in anticipation of a release in
stocks.

The following are the reported rice exports (as is basis)**:**

  ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ------------ ------------
  WEEK       QUANTITY    4-WK AVG    YEAR TO     YEAR AGO     YEAR TO DATE
  ENDING                             DATE                     AS % OF LAST
                                                              YEAR

             (MT)        (MT)        (TMT)       (TMT)        \%

  AUG 27     101,889     73,148      3,096       3,463        -10.6

  SEP 3      83,897      80,303      3,180       3,529        -9.9

  SEP 10     98,168      90,893      3,278       3,589        -8.7

  SEP 17     111,044     98,750      3,389       3,683        -8.0

  SEP 24     109,071     100,545     3,498       3,773        -7.3

  OCT 1      86,993      101,319     3,585       3,882        -7.7

  OCT 8      81,818      97,231      3,667       3,950        -7.4

  OCT 15     98,876      94,189      3,766       4,031        -6.6
  ---------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ------------ ------------

Note on data: Export figures since March 22, 2002, do not include
fragrant rice. The authority to report fragrant rice exports was moved
from the Thai Board of Trade to the Ministry of Commerce's Office of
Commodity Standards, which does not release official fragrant rice
export data. FAS/BKK will report only official export numbers from the
Board of Trade for non-fragrant and from the Office of Commodity
Standards for fragrant rice when available, but the reader should bear
in mind the difference between the data.

Unofficial exports (excluding fragrant rice) for Oct. 9-15, 2006 totaled
98,876 tons, up 17,058 tons from the previous week's total, and up 4,686
tons from the four-week moving average of 94,189 tons. Exports during
Jan. 1 -- Oct. 15, 2006 totaled 3,765,898 tons, as compared with
4,031,328 tons in the previous year.

According to the Department of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce,
total rice exports (including fragrant rice) during Jan. 1 -- Oct. 11,
2006, amounted to 5,626,693 tons, down slightly from 5,641,188 tons in
the previous year.

**Weekly Rice Sales**

Private registered rice export sales for the period of Sep. 25-29, Oct.
2-6, and\
Oct. 9-13, 2006 are as follows:

  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------
  Movement (MT)       Sep. 25-29        Oct. 2-6          Oct. 9-13

  weekly sales        68,153            81,995            79,306

  4 week sum          381,800           347,894           312,139

  4 week mov. avg.    95,450            86,974            78,035

  Total weekly sales  4,436,171         4,518,166         4,597,472
  ------------------- ----------------- ----------------- -----------------

End of Report.