**SEASONAL OUTLOOK**

**SEA ICE CONDITIONS FOR**

**BAFFIN BAY, DAVIS STRAIT, LABRADOR SEA**

**AND THE SOUTHWEST GREENLAND WATERS**

**SUMMER 2003**

**NATIONAL / NAVAL ICE CENTER**

Historically the Baffin Bay melt does not begin until June, although the
first signs of the North Open Water are observed in May. During the
beginning of the melt, the western boundary of the pack ice begins to
recede eastward, meeting the north open water. A broad flaw lead forms
along the Greenland coast and gradually moves northward to Melville Bay.
The pack ice begins receding, leaving an ice bridge across Baffin Bay
(from NW Greenland to Central Baffin Island). This ice bridge will
typically break sometime between the last half of July and the third
week of August. The remaining ice will be composed of rotten floes that
are rapidly deteriorating, and disappear completely by mid-September.
The two main objectives of the Eastern Seasonal Outlook are to forecast
the thinning of the ice bridge for planning escorted shipping
operations, and the breaking of the ice bridge for planning for
unescorted operations.

Overall, summer melt conditions throughout the route across the Davis
Strait and Baffin Bay are expected to be *ahead of schedule* for the
2003 shipping season. **Table 1** provides the forecasted opening dates
for the summer of 2003 compared to the normal opening dates for the
transit to Thule, Greenland.

**Table 1**

**Forecast and Normal Opening Dates**

**Thule, Greenland**

**PORT FORECAST NORMAL FORECAST NORMAL**

**ESCORTED ESCORTED UNESCORTED UNESCORTED**

**OPENING OPENING OPENING OPENING**

**DATE DATE DATE DATE**

Thule July 10 July 20 July 20 August 5

Escorted: Concentrations of ice encountered on the transit to Thule will
be 7/10s or less and any fast ice will be in a weakened state.

Unescorted: Concentrations of ice encountered on the transit to Thule
will be 1/10 or less.

Freezing Degree Day (FDD) Accumulations and Ice Thickness (**Table 2**)
are shown for the 2002-2003 winter season and historical maximum,
minimum, and mean data for selected locations in the Baffin Bay / Davis
Strait / Labrador Sea area. (See **Figure 1** for port locations).

Ice thickness values are thinner than the mean climatological thickness
in all cases for mid-May 2003. The Freezing Degree Day (FDD) values for
all the reporting stations along the western shore of Greenland (Thule,
Upernavik) as well as the two stations reporting on the western shore of
Baffin Bay and Davis Strait (Cape Dyer, Frobisher Bay) were all below
normal for mid-May 2003.

**Table 2**

**Current and Climatological Freezing**

**Degree Days / Theoretical Thickness**

**(Freezing Degree Days - Degrees C)**

**(Theoretical Thickness - Centimeters)**

**LOCATION MAXIMUM MINIMUM MEAN 15 MAY 03**

**FDD / THK FDD / THK FDD / THK FDD / THK**

Thule 5093 / 178 3721 / 142 4496 / 168 3579 / 146

Upernavik 3654 / 149 2207 / 75 3043 / 134 2612 / 122

Sondrestrom 4010 / 146 1915 / 26 2927 / 108 2489 / 118

Cape Dyer 4607 / 171 3204 / 137 3927 / 155 2601 / 121

Frobisher Bay 4660 / 171 3182 / 122 3866 / 155 3556 / 145

Angmagssalik 1793 / 94 949 / 41 1260 / 81 0 / 0\*

Resolution Is. 3766 / 152 2066 / 105 2927 / 132 0 / 0\*

\* Values reset before 15 May 2003.

**Table 3** lists the distance in nautical miles from select ports ,as
indicated in figure 1, to the nearest ice edge on the 28^th^ of April
2003, verses the mean distance for the 1^st^ of May. As can be seen from
Table 3, the distance to the ice edge is greater than normal for all the
selected ports with the exception of Angmagssalik which is located on
the eastern side of Greenland which is lower than normal.

**Table 3**

**Distance From Selected ports to**

**the ice edge in nautical miles.**

**PORT MEAN (May 1) PRESENT (Apr 28, 2003)**

Thule 540 622

Upernavik 210 245

Cape Dyer 130 155

Frobisher Bay 240 255

Angmagssalik 60 25

Resolution Is. 80 92

**Figure 2** indicates the climatological maximum, mean and minimum
positions of the ice edge for May 15th. **Figure 3(a-b)** depicts the
actual ice conditions present for the week of 12-16 May, 2003. The ice
extent in the Grand Banks, Labrador Sea, Davis Strait and Baffin Bay
lies near a climatological mean.

Several factors were considered during the preparation of the outlook.
Their description and weight in the outlook are discussed in the
following paragraphs.

Values plotted on standard ice thickness curves for Upernavik showed
values at the climatological mean for the first half of the winter than
trending more toward a minimum during the second half of the winter
indicating a much slower ice growth beginning in early March. Thule ice
thickness remained at a climatological minimum throughout the entire
winter. Freezing Degree Days (FDD) data for the winter of 2002-03 for
Upernavik , Sondrestrom and Frobisher Bay were below normal with Thule
and Cape Dyer significantly below normal indicating thinner than normal
ice thickness. Values for freezing degree days accumulation and ice
thickness are compared with past years and shown in **Table 2**. As
noted in **Table 3** the distances to the ice edge are near to slightly
above the mean for all stations.

owever

Next, we compared the ice edge and inner pack concentrations from the
week of May 12-16 to our climatological database of archived charts to
find an analog year. After comparing the ice edge and re-occurring
polynyas from May of this year to May of years past, 1999 and 1995 were
chosen as the best analogs for the current ice conditions. Unescorted
transit times for these analog years were the 23 July & 04 August,
respectively. These dates are all earlier than normal to near normal for
the appearance of unescorted transit conditions. **Figure 4** shows mean
climatological conditions for July 15.

In the third week of May, ice forecasters from the National Ice Center
(NIC) met with ice forecasters from the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) to
compare our findings. The East Seasonal Outlook produced by CIS is of a
larger scope than what is presented here. However, the information that
goes into their forecast is similar to the information used by the NIC.
The CIS Seasonal Outlooks can be accessed on the CIS homepage at
[http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca](http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/)

Due to the combination of factors listed above, the unescorted opening
of the ice route for the transit to Thule, Greenland is forecasted to be
earlier than normal for the summer of 2003.

![](media/image1.png){width="6.495833333333334in"
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![](media/image2.png){width="6.495833333333334in"
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![](media/image3.jpeg){width="6.495138888888889in"
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Figure 3a

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Figure 3b

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