**REPORT TITLE:** Assessment of Change in the North Slope, Beaufort Sea
Region Sociocultural Systems.

**STUDY TITLE:** Beaufort Sea Petroleum Development Scenarios:
Sociocultural Systems Impacts (TR-22).

CONTRACT NUMBER(S): BLM: CT6-61; MMS: 14-12-0001-29002

SPONSORING OCS REGION: Alaska.

APPLICABLE PLANNING AREA(S): Beaufort Sea.

FISCAL YEAR(S) OF PROJECT FUNDING: 1979.

COMPLETION DATE OF REPORT: April 1978.

COST(S): FY 1979: \$15,738; CUMULATIVE PROJECT COST: \$15,738.

PROJECT MANAGER(S): R. Worl, R. Worl.

AFFILIATION: Worl Associates.

ADDRESS: 3407 Seppala, Anchorage, Alaska 99503.

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR(S)\*: R. Worl, R. Worl.

KEY WORDS: Beaufort Sea; Alaska; cultural impacts; human population;
impacts; employment; forecast; development; exploratory drilling;
scenarios; Inupiat; sociocultural change; employment; education;
recreation; physical environment; mining; minerals; fish; fauna;
subsistence; transportation; Kaktovik; Alaska Region.

ACCESS NUMBER: 29002

**BACKGROUND:** The Alaska Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Social and
Economic Studies Program was initiated by the U.S. Department of the
Interior, Bureau of Land Management (now the Minerals Management
Service) to acquire information on the physical, social, and economic
environments within the State. Information obtained by the program will
improve the ability to predict and evaluate impacts on Alaska\'s
socioeconomic environment caused by OCS exploration, development, and
production activity. This report compares sociocultural impacts on
Alaska\'s North Slope based on several scenarios, including a non‑OCS
development scenario and several scenarios reflecting varying levels of
OCS development.

**OBJECTIVES:** (1) To provide a baseline scenario projecting impacts on
sociocultural systems on Alaska\'s North Slope under the assumption that
OCS development does not occur; and (2) To predict impacts upon North
Slope sociocultural systems based on several differing levels of OCS
exploration and development.

**DESCRIPTION:** Five separate scenarios were postulated for the study.
The Inupiat society was the baseline from which sociocultural changes
were determined. Assuming non‑OCS development, forces of potential
change were selected as impacts on sociocultural systems. The impacts
were identified as subsistence, cultural values, politics, interethnic
relationships, social health, and family relationships. Categories
affected by these impacts were identified as population, employment,
economy, man‑made environment, natural physical environment, and
regional transportation systems. Impacts on the sociocultural system in
the non‑OCS scenario were used as a basis to project sociocultural
changes in four OCS development scenarios (i.e., Camden‑Canning, Prudhoe
Bay‑Large, Prudhoe Bay‑Small, and Cape Halkett). The Camden‑Canning
scenario (1.3 billion barrels \[Bbbl\] of oil), two Prudhoe scenarios
(Prudhoe Bay‑Small \[0.8 Bbbl of oil\] and Prudhoe Bay‑Large \[1.9 Bbbl
of oil\]), and a Cape Halkett scenario (0.8 Bbbl of oil) were based on
OCS exploration and subsequent development and production activities.

**SIGNIFICANT CONCLUSIONS:** Without OCS development, the primary
impacts to sociocultural systems in the Beaufort Sea Region were onshore
petroleum exploration and development, change at the institutional level
of the North Slope Borough, development of Native corporations such as
the Arctic Slope Regional Corporation, and changes in subsistence
hunting and fishing. Adverse influence on traditional subsistence
hunting and fishing was the single greatest threat to the maintenance of
the Inupiat sociocultural system. Impacts on subsistence hunting and
fishing were identified as negative influences on the resource stemming
from petroleum development, decreased participation, and increased
regulation. If the Inupiat\'s relationship with their environment and
utilization of the natural resources were destroyed, Inupiat culture
could be significantly threatened.

If OCS development does occur, OCS impacts on natural resources
affecting subsistence hunting and fishing will still be the most
important influence on the sociocultural system in the Beaufort Sea
Region. Population growth within OCS enclave sites was not expected to
directly affect or interact with the Native population; however,
indirect impacts of population growth such as those described in the
case of subsistence could occur. Immediate and important sociocultural
influences would be exerted on communities closest to the development
site, and lack of opportunities for the Inupiat within OCS development
could be a source of interethnic tension.

**STUDY RESULTS:** Population, employment, economy, man‑made environment
(including education, public safety, fire protection, recreation,
gas/electric, telephone, housing, and local government finance), natural
physical environment (including water and waste, minerals, and fish and
wildlife resources), and regional transportation systems were assumed to
be impacts affecting sociocultural systems in Alaska\'s North Slope
Region. In the absence of OCS development, subsistence activities would
be affected by changes in legislation and regulation of Native hunting
and fishing activities. Sport hunting pressure and habitat disturbance
of caribou could cause Natives to increase hunting efforts for other
game, such as marine mammals. Increased employment opportunities and
time constraints associated with employment and school demands could
also cause a shift away from subsistence towards a cash economy. In
light of the importance of subsistence to the Inupiat sociocultural
system, a decrease in subsistence activities would create far‑reaching
ramifications. Inupiat cultural values could be adversely affected
because they are grounded in the subsistence life‑style and association
with the natural environment.

Political changes in a non‑OCS development scenario would be minimal and
the Inupiat would be expected to maintain control of the local
governments. Interethnic relations and social health were extremely
difficult to predict since they are contingent on so many factors.
Family relationships should be relatively stable due to strong
traditional values.

OCS development was described using four scenarios: Camden‑Canning,
Prudhoe Bay‑Large, Prudhoe Bay‑Small, and Cape Halkett. In the
Camden‑Canning scenario, increased human presence and activity would
likely disperse game and frustrate subsistence hunters. The community
most likely to be affected was Kaktovik, located 100 km from the
Camden‑Canning area. Employment opportunities would increase, decreasing
subsistence activity. OCS development would necessitate new housing and
construction. Changes in the natural physical environment were similar
to those described in the baseline (i.e., non‑OCS) scenario, with
increased water quality impairment due to offshore drilling as well as
sand and gravel mining operation. Subsistence activity reduction was the
major impact in the Camden‑Canning area.

The Prudhoe Bay‑Large and Prudhoe Bay‑Small scenarios describe similar
effects on different scales. Impacts on subsistence in the Prudhoe Bay
area would be less since existing Prudhoe Bay infrastructure would be
used. Additionally, caribou would be less affected since calving
activity has already shifted away from the area. Impacts on employment
and economy were similar to those in the Camden‑Canning case. Similar
parallels to the Camden‑Canning scenarios could be expected for water
and waste, sand and gravel, cultural systems, political systems,
interethnic relationships, social health, and family relationships.

The Cape Halkett scenario predicted a reduced level of impacts on the
population as compared to the Camden‑Canning scenario. Employment,
economy, and housing would all be impacted less than in the
Camden‑Canning scenario. However, greater potential impacts existed from
onshore and offshore mining in the area even though sand and gravel
requirements were lower than for Prudhoe Bay and Camden‑Canning areas.
In this scenario, the subsistence complex would be impacted more by
environmental than population influences. The potential impacts upon
cultural and political systems were greater due to the significant
environmental dangers; however, the nature of the impacts remained the
same as in the Camden‑Canning scenario. Interethnic relationships and
social health were the areas where the greatest potential existed for
negative impacts due to the increased potential for negative
environmental and subsistence impacts.

**STUDY PRODUCT(S):** Worl Associates. 1978. Assessment of Change in the
North Slope, Beaufort Sea Region Sociocultural Systems. A final report
for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management
Alaska OCS Office, Anchorage, AK. NTIS No. PB-291919. Social and
Economic Studies Program Technical Report No. 22. Contract No.
14-12-0001-29002. x + 106 pp.

\*P.I.\'s affiliation may be different than that listed for Project
Manager(s).