Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 10/14/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** TU5044

TU5044

**Turkey**

**Poultry and Products**

**Avian Influenza Outbreak in Turkey**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Jim Higgiston, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy

**Prepared by:**

Cynthia Iglesias Guven, Agricultural Attache

**Report Highlights:**

On October 14, the Turkish Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
confirmed that the outbreak of Avian Influenza in Turkey is the same
strain found in Asia (H5N1). The outbreak was first detected on a
private farm in northwestern Turkey and was confirmed as AI on October
7. The government has taken precautionary measures to contain the
disease. According to the Ministry, about 2000 birds died as a result of
the disease with another 6000 culled for precautionary measures. Turkish
poultry production may drop by 30 - 40 percent due to the drop in
demand.

Includes PSD Changes: No

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

Ankara \[TU1\]

\[TU\]

**Summary**

On October 14, The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA)
confirmed that the outbreak of Avian Influenza (AI) in Turkey is the
same strain (H5N1) that is affecting Asia. The outbreak was first
detected on October 1 on a private turkey farm in the northwestern
region of Balikesir, Turkey and confirmed as AI on October 7. Turkey has
taken strict precautionary measures to contain the outbreak. According
to the Ministry of Agriculture, about 2000 birds died directly as a
result of the virus with another 6000 culled for precautionary purposes.
There are already indications that the outbreak is having economic
consequences for the Turkish poultry and feed industries, as well as
U.S. feed exporters.

**Background**

On October 1, a private farmer in the Northwestern province of Balikesir
found several dead birds on his farm. He contacted a local veterinarian,
who initially believed the deaths were due to poisoning. Within a few
days, a veterinarian from a large commercial operation in the area was
summoned and samples were immediately sent to a lab in Izmir, the only
lab equipped to test for AI in Turkey. By October 7, 1700 birds had died
from the disease and the lab in Izmir had confirmed the presence of AI
(H5). On October 12 samples were sent to a lab in England that can test
for the subtype H5.

The government of Turkey (GOT) has taken swift action to contain the
outbreak in Turkey. MARA established a 3 km radius quarantine zone
around the infected farm with an additional 7 km radius as a
surveillance area where precautions have also been taken to avoid the
spread of the virus. Private poultry companies in the area have also
agreed to destroy birds within an additional 5km radius outside of this
10 km zone as a safety measure. So far, almost 6,000 birds were culled
as a precautionary measure. In addition, feed trucks were disinfected,
and empty barns were destroyed in the area. Prohibition of live bird
sales is also being more strictly enforced in the Marmara region, where
the virus was first detected. Nationally, agriculture officials are
making great efforts to inform both poultry producers and consumers
about the outbreak. The Ministry of Agriculture's Protection and Control
Division added a new section to its website on avian influenza,
describing the disease, explaining precautionary measures, and answering
frequently asked questions.

MARA officials have also indicated that the GOT will reimburse farmers
for any flocks, which must be culled. After the confirmation of the H5N1
strain in Turkey, the Ministry of Agriculture increased the compensation
fund for farmers from 60,000 YTL to 100,000 YTL (about \$75,000). MARA
announced that it would pay farmers the following amounts for any birds
culled: 22.5 YTL per young turkey, 30 YTL per turkey, 5 YTL per chicken,
duck, and pigeon and 20 YTL per goose. Industry sources consider these
prices appropriate when compared to market prices. MARA also announced
that legal action would be taken against farmers in the quarantine zone
who do not surrender their birds to the government for culling.

# Market Impact

[Domestic]{.underline}: According to the Turkish Poultry Association,
there are about 150 million birds used for commercial purposes in Turkey
(120 million broilers and 30 million layers). Total sales in the broiler
and egg sectors are \$2.2 billion and \$600 million, respectively. The
Industry has indicated that poultry and egg consumption has decreased
significantly. Broiler sales are down 75 percent. The domestic feed
industry is already noticing a drop in sales. The Turkish Poultry
Association and the Feed Millers Association representatives are
scheduled to meet with the Minister of Agriculture and the President of
the Chamber of Commerce to discuss ways to remedy the situation. One
major poultry processor has already started a new ad campaign in an
effort to regain the consumers' trust in Turkish poultry and resume
normal consumption.

Reports from major poultry and feed trading companies indicate that the
industry is planning to cut poultry production about 35-40 percent.
Poultry prices fell from 2.2 YTL per kilogram last Friday to 1.3 YTL per
kilogram today. The industry expects the recovery period to take about
two or three months, although it could be longer since the Haj season,
during which red meat consumption increases, begins in January.
Companies that sell layers are not as adversely affected at the moment
since it is their low season.

[International]{.underline}: The United States is typically more
competitive in soybean exports to Turkey between October and December
when South American beans are typically not available. However, if
Turkish poultry production and consumption continue to go down, U.S.
soybean sales will also decline. The drop in poultry production could
also affect corn consumption.