# ![](media/image1.png){width="0.875in" height="0.6083333333333333in"}United States 

**Department of**

**Agriculture**

Foreign

Agricultural

Service

Circular Series

WAP 10-05

October 2005

**China: Rains Reduce Cotton Output**

![](media/image2.wmf){width="3.125in"
height="3.0027777777777778in"}China's 2005/06 cotton production is
estimated at 24.5 million bales (5.33 million tons), down 1.0 million
from last month and down 4.5 million from last year. Area is estimated
at 5.1 million hectares, unchanged from last month. The forecast yield
of 1046 kilograms per hectare is down 6 percent from last year and below
the 5-year average. The cotton crop is now at the open boll stage and
harvesting is underway.

![](media/image3.png){width="3.75in" height="2.473611111111111in"}Crop
conditions deteriorated in September over most of the North China Plain
due to excessive rainfall and storm damage. The precipitation pattern in
this area has been very similar to 2003, when heavy late-season rainfall
caused sharply lower yields. This wet pattern extended into early
October, bringing additional unwelcome rain to Shandong, southern Hebei,
Shaanxi, Henan, Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangsu. Severe flooding has been
reported this week in parts of Hubei and Shaanxi provinces. According to
local sources, crop quality was rated fair to poor in most areas and
moisture levels were excessive. The rain, cloudiness, and cool
temperatures have slowed maturation and delayed harvest progress. There
have been many reports of bollworm and aphid infestations, disease
outbreaks (such as fursarium wilt), boll rot, and boll dropping.

The situation is more favorable in Xinjiang, China's most important
cotton-producing province (about 34 percent of total production).
Planting in Xinjiang was hampered by cool temperatures and periodic
storms, but local sources report that summer weather was very good and
yield prospects are excellent. Planted area increased in 2005/06 to
approximately 1.15 million hectares, and production is forecast to reach
a record 1.8 million tons.

**China: Excessive Rains Drop Corn Yields**

China's corn production for 2005/06 is estimated at 126.0 million tons,
down 1.0 million from last month and down 4.3 million from last year's
crop. Corn area for 2005/06 was raised to 26.0 million hectares, up 0.55
million from last year's revised area of 25.45 million hectares. (The
Chinese government published final 2004/05 area statistics in
September). Corn area increased in 2005/06 mainly on the North China
Plain. The government offered various tax and policy incentives in 2005
to encourage farmers to expand grain production. At the same time, lower
prices for cotton in 2004 led to a significant reduction in cotton area
this year, opening up arable land for corn planting. The estimated corn
yield of 4.85 tons per hectare is down 5 percent from last year's
excellent yield but equal to the 5-year average.

Based on crop travel in September by FAS personnel and other analysts,
it appears that abundant rainfall and warm temperatures supported
average crop development in the important corn-producing provinces of
Hebei, Henan, and Heilongjiang. However, excessive rainfall during
flowering and pollination lowered yield prospects in Liaoning, Jilin,
and Inner Mongolia this year. Conditions in Shandong province were
mixed, with good yields expected in the northwest part of the province
and lower yields expected in the southeast. There were reports of
significant problems with insects and diseases in several provinces.
Harvesting is now underway across China. Scattered showers in the
Northeast caused minor delays, but temperatures have remained above
freezing in the main production areas and the harvest should soon be
complete. On the North China Plain, periods of heavy rain in September
and early October have hindered harvest activities and may have reduced
yield prospects and crop quality. *(For more information, contact
Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)*

# 

# Pakistan: Cotton Production Forecast Revised Down

Pakistan\'s 2005/06 cotton production is forecast at 9.5 million bales,
down 0.5 million percent from last month and down 1.3 million from last
year. The area forecast is 3.15 million hectares, unchanged from last
month. Above-average rainfall received in key growing regions in the
Punjab during late September has resulted in reduced output. Field
reports indicated crop condition was satisfactory to very good prior to
September. The subsequent wetter-than-normal conditions during harvest
was compounded by a lack of quality pesticide availability resulted in a
pest-vulnerable crop. This season a pest infestation has reduced cotton
yield. The full extent of damage will become more apparent as Pakistan
gin arrival data, published every 15 days during harvest, is published.
(*For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.*)

**European Union:** **Harvest Results Drop Wheat Production 1.8 Million
Tons**

The European Union (EU) is estimated to produce 121.7 million tons of
wheat from 22.7 million hectares. EU wheat production is estimated down
2 percent from last month, 11 percent from last year, but on par with
the five-year average. Area was revised down by 150,000 hectares from
last month. The net result is an overall wheat yield of 5.36 tons per
hectare, compared to last year's record 5.88 tons per hectare and the
5.32 tons per hectare five-year-average.

October estimates were revised downward, largely in response to
collected harvest results that have been recently released.
Specifically, the United Kingdom's (UK) wheat harvest was lowered
500,000 tons due to lower planted area. France's production estimate was
lowered 1.0 million tons as new information suggests unusually high
temperatures during June had impacted the crop more than expected. In
addition, France's problem was compounded by concurrent dryness.
Poland's wheat estimate was reduced 400,000 tons from last month to 8.6
million tons. Yields for wheat, Poland's largest crop, fell because of a
short-but critical-dry spell that occurred during June. Crops suffered
most in the rainfall deficit areas, concentrated in the center and
northern sections of the country. Other revised estimates included
Austria at 1.4 million tons (down 100,000 tons), while Lithuania's
production increased 200,000 tons to 1.4 million tons. *(For more
information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138)*

**European Union: Corn Production Lowest Since 2003 Drought Year**

European Union (EU) corn production for 2005/06 is estimated at 45.9
million tons, down 3.7 percent from last month and down 14.0 percent
from last year. Area remained virtually unchanged at 5.9 million
hectares, slightly below the 6.0-million-ton five-year average, but well
below last season's 6.4 million hectares. Yield is estimated at 7.77
tons per hectare (8.36 tons per hectare last year, 7.85 tons per hectare
is the average), the lowest since drought ravaged the continent in 2003.
Austria's production was lowered 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. The
Czech Republic's crop was lowered 125,000 tons, largely due to an area
reduction. More significantly, June dryness caused a 400,000-ton drop in
Poland's corn estimate. France, the EU's largest corn producer, is
estimated to harvest 13.2 million tons, down 300,000 from last month's
estimate. Italy's crop was reduced 200,000 tons to 9.4 million tons,
while Germany's crop estimate was adjusted down, 100,000 tons to 4.0
million tons. New numbers in Greece drew down its production estimate by
450,000 tons. The EU's third largest corn producer, Hungary, has seen
its corn estimate bolstered by late season rainfall. Hungary's corn
production remains on track and unchanged from last month, at a record
8.5 million tons, 4 percent higher than last year's 8.2-million-ton
record harvest. *(For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at
202-690-0138)*

# India: Corn Production Revised Down 

India\'s 2005/06 corn output is estimated at 13.5 million tons, down 1.0
million from last month and down 0.1 million from last season's crop.
The area forecast is 7.2 million hectares, down 0.2 from last month, but
up 0.2 million from last year. The 2005/06 Kharif, or fall harvested
corn crop, accounts for approximately 85 percent of the total crop, and
the Rabi, or summer harvested corn crop, is normally about 15 percent of
the total. A late monsoon arrival delayed sowing operations in some
regions. Yields are expected to be lower due to extended dry periods
this monsoon (June 2005 to September 2005). (*For more information,
contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.*)

# India: Millet Production Revised Down 

India\'s 2005/06 millet output is estimated at 9.0 million tons, down
1.0 million from last month and down 0.4 million from last season's
crop. The area forecast is 9.8 million hectares, down 0.2 from last
month, but unchanged from last year. The 2005/06 millet crop, also known
as Bajra, is predominantly grown during the monsoon or Kharif season. A
late monsoon arrival delayed sowing operations in some regions. Extended
dry periods this monsoon (June 2005 to September 2005) may have reduced
yield prospects. (*For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at
202-690-0135.*)

**Canada: Wheat Production Increases Despite Variable Weather**

Canada's wheat production for 2005/06 is forecast at 25.5 million tons,
up 1.0 million from last month, but down 0.36 million from last year.
The increase is a result of slight increases in both area and yield.
USDA's increase in Canada wheat area and production is in response to
Statistics Canada's September field crop report. Despite variable
late-season weather with cool temperatures, heavy rains, and occasional
frost in the main wheat-growing regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan,
production is forecast upward from last month; wheat quality, however,
is reported to have suffered. As reported by Saskatchewan Agriculture
and Food, winter wheat harvest is nearly complete as of October 2, while
spring wheat harvest is 56 percent complete in Saskatchewan, where 48
percent of the wheat crop is grown. Alberta produces approximately 27
percent of the wheat crop, while Manitoba and Ontario produce 17 and 7
percent, respectively. *(For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at
202-720-0882.)*

**South Africa: Lower Corn Area and Output for 2005/06**

South Africa's 2005/06 corn production is forecasted at 8.0 million
tons, down 1.0 million tons from last month and down 4.0 million from
last year. Area is forecasted at 2.8 million hectares, down 400,000
hectares from last month and down 700,000 from last year. The estimated
yield of 2.86 tons per hectare is near the five-year average and assumes
normal weather for the upcoming growing season. The area was lowered in
response to the first intentions to plant survey released by South
Africa's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), whereby commercial farmers
indicated they would plant 42 percent less corn area than last year.
However, corn prices have increased since the farmers were surveyed at
the end of August, and plantings could also increase if good rainfall
occurs in November. Total corn area, therefore, was reduced by only 20
percent from last year in expectation that farmers will plant more corn
than they indicated in the survey. *(For more information, contact Curt
Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)*

**Argentina: Soybean Production Outlook Gets Boost from Wheat
Difficulties**

Argentina's soybean production for 2005/06 is forecast at 40.5 million
tons, up 4 percent from last month and 4 percent from last year.
Harvested soybean area for 2005/06 is forecast at 15.2 million hectares,
while yield is forecast at 2.66 tons per hectare, slightly above the
5-year average, but lower than last year's large yield of 2.71 tons per
hectare.

The higher soybean output is due to a decline in wheat area. Upon
completion of wheat plantings in mid-September, Argentina's Agricultural
Secretaria reported that planted wheat area had decreased by 340,000
hectares, or 20 percent, from last year. This decrease was due to
relatively favorable economics for planting oilseeds over grains, and an
abandonment of intended wheat plantings in areas where planting progress
was delayed due to low temperatures and dry soils. First-crop soybeans,
which comprise approximately 82 percent of total soybean production,
will increase in area, while second-crop soy, which follows wheat, will
decline in area. Some of the abandoned wheat area will be planted to
sunflowers, which are currently being planted, but dryness in Sante Fe,
Chaco, and Santiago del Estero may cause an abandonment of some intended
sunflower plantings, further increasing the area available to soybeans.
Planting of first-crop soybeans will be in November and December, with
second-crop soybeans planted in December and January.

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service's
(FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official
statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials,
and the results of economic and satellite imagery analysis. Estimates of
foreign area, yield, and production are from the Production Estimates
and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA's
Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area,
yield, and production are from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics
Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of
rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-426), Oct. 12,
2005.

**Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information
Service. Download an order form at
http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.**

The FAS Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division prepared this
report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released
after 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time, November 10, 2005.

**Conversion Table**

[Metric tons to bushels]{.underline}

> Wheat, soybeans = MT \* 36.7437
>
> Corn, sorghum, rye = MT \* 39.36825
>
> Barley = MT \* 45.929625
>
> Oats = MT \* 68.894438

[Metric tons to 480-lb bales]{.underline}

> Cotton = MT \* 4.592917

[Metric tons to hundredweight]{.underline}

> Rice = MT \* 22.04622

[Area & weight]{.underline}

> 1 hectare = 2.471044 acres
>
> 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

For further information, contact:

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service

Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division

Ag Box 1045, Room 6541, South Building

Washington, DC 20250-1045

Telephone: (202) 720-0888 Fax: (202) 720-8880

[GENERAL INFORMATION]{.underline}

Division Director Allen Vandergriff 202-720-0888
vandergriff@fas.usda.gov

Administrative Assistant Mary Jackson 202-720-0888
jacksonma@fas.usda.gov

Deputy Director for Analysis George Douvelis 202-720-0873
douvelis@fas.usda.gov

Remote Sensing Specialist Brad Doorn 202-690-0131 doorn@fas.usda.gov

Contract Representative Theresa Wright 202-720-8887 wrightt@fas.usda.gov

Imagery Archive Coordinator Bob Tetrault 202-690-0130
tetrault@fas.usda.gov

USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280
bethel@fas.usda.gov

Chief of Technology Services Bob Baldwin 202-720-1860
baldwin@fas.usda.gov

Image Processing Specialist Stephen Macugoski 202-720-6237
macugoski@fas.usda.gov

GIS Specialist **(Vacant)**

[COMMODITY-SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Grains Chairperson Michelle Greenberg 202-720-7339
greenberg@fas.usda.gov

Oilseeds Chairperson Paul Provance 202-720-0881 provance@fas.usda.gov

Rice Chairperson Teresa McKeivier 202-720-0879 teresa.mckeivier@usda.gov

Cotton Chairperson Teresa McKeivier 202-720-0879
teresa.mckeivier@usda.gov

[COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION]{.underline}

Brazil, Paraguay, & Venezuela Michael Shean 202-720-7366
shean@fas.usda.gov

Canada & Argentina Nicole Wagner 202-720-0882 nicole.c.wagner@usda.gov

European Union, the Balkans, Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138
purcellb@fas.usda.gov

& North Africa

Russia, Ukraine, & Central Asia Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143
lindeman@fas.usda.gov

China, Koreas, Japan, Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133
<sandene@fas.usda.gov>

& Southeast Asia

Australia, Bangladesh, India, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135
crutchfield@fas.usda.gov

& Pakistan

Southern Africa & West Africa Curt Reynolds 202-690-0134
reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov

Western United States Carl Gernazio 202-690-0136 gernazio@fas.usda.gov

Eastern United States **(Vacant**)

Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, & Iraq **(Vacant)**

Mexico, Central America, **(Vacant)**

& Caribbean