Number range CHAPTERTropical Cyclone Report

Hurricane Lorenzo

(AL132007)

25-28 September 2007

James L. Franklin

National Hurricane Center

18 October 2007

Hurricane Lorenzo was a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Scale) that made landfall in Mexico south of Tuxpan - in
virtually the same location that Hurricane Dean had struck a month
earlier.

a.  Synoptic History

    Lorenzo formed from a tropical wave that moved across the west coast
    of Africa around 11 September. Convection associated with the wave
    increased in the western Caribbean on 21 September, and the northern
    portion of the wave crossed the Yucatan Peninsula and entered the
    southern Gulf of Mexico. On 24 September, the wave spawned a small
    surface low in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and convection with
    the system increased. Strong upper-level winds initially inhibited
    development, but the upper flow began to relax the following day and
    a tropical depression formed around 1800 UTC 25 September, when the
    system was centered about 150 n mi east-northeast of Tuxpan, Mexico.

    The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given in
    Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3,
    respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in
    Table 1. Steering currents surrounding the cyclone were weak
    initially, and the depression made a small cyclonic loop over the
    next 30 hours or so. There was little development during this
    period, due to upper-level southwesterlies associated with a trough
    near the Texas coast. As the trough moved westward, however, the
    southwesterly upper flow gave way to an anticyclone above the
    depression, and the system became a tropical storm at 1200 UTC 27
    September, when it was about 130 n mi east of Tuxpan. At about this
    time, a mid-level ridge built eastward across the northern Gulf of
    Mexico, providing a more-definite steering flow. Moving westward,
    Lorenzo strengthened rapidly as it approached the coast, becoming a
    hurricane less than 12 h after becoming a tropical storm. Lorenzo
    reached its peak intensity of 70 kt at 0000 UTC 28 September, then
    weakened slightly, to 65 kt, before making landfall at 0500 UTC near
    Tecolutla, Mexico, about 35 n mi south-southeast of Tuxpan. The
    small circulation weakened very rapidly after landfall, with the
    system decaying to a tropical depression by 1200 UTC that day, and
    dissipating less than 12 h later.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Lorenzo (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based
    Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), as
    well as flight-level and Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer
    (SFMR) surface observations from flights of the 53^rd^ Weather
    Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command. Data
    and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical
    Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense
    Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, among others,
    were also useful in tracking Lorenzo.

    Lorenzo may have reached hurricane strength a little earlier than
    indicated in the best track. The SFMR reported a spot wind of 74 kt
    at 1917 UTC 27 September (Fig. 2), and there was another stretch of
    hurricane-force winds from 1731-1733 UTC to the southwest of the
    center. However, neither the central pressure (\~1000 mb) nor the
    flight-level winds (64 kt at 1500 ft) supported hurricane strength
    at this time. While the SFMR winds do not appear to be in error, it
    is judged that they were not representative of the cyclone-scale
    circulation. A peak intensity of 70 kt has been assigned at 0000 UTC
    28 September, about the time that a closed eyewall became
    well-defined on the Alvarado, Mexico radar. The radar presentation
    of the center had degraded by the time of landfall, and therefore a
    slightly lower intensity of 65 kt is estimated to be the landfall
    intensity.

    There were no official land-based or ship reports of winds of
    tropical storm force associated with Lorenzo. Selected rainfall
    observations from land stations are given in Table 2. The highest
    rainfall report was 12.83 inches from El Raudal, Veracruz.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    The government of Mexico reports six deaths attributable to Lorenzo:
    one in the state of Veracruz and five in Puebla. At least four of
    the deaths were caused by flash floods or mud slides. Damage in the
    two states included downed trees and power lines, as well as washed
    out roads and flooded homes. Media reports indicate that high winds
    peeled the roofs off of a number of homes in the seaside town of
    Nautla, to the south of where the center of Lorenzo made landfall.
    In Puebla, 169 homes were reported damaged and landslides made many
    roadways impassible. In the state of Hidalgo the San Lorenzo River
    overflowed its banks, forcing the evacuation of over 200 people.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    The genesis of Lorenzo was well anticipated beginning about 24 h
    prior to genesis, when the possibility of tropical cyclone formation
    was first mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook.

    A verification of official and guidance model track forecasts is
    given in Table 3. Average official track errors for Lorenzo were 31,
    45, 51, 68, and 180 n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h forecasts,
    respectively. The number of forecasts ranged from 13 at 12 h to 1 at
    72 h. These errors were generally lower than the average long-term
    official track errors (Table 4), due in part to the cyclone's slow
    motion, but were also superior to the objective guidance models.

    Average official intensity errors were 13, 11, 19, 24, and 35 kt for
    the 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h forecasts, respectively. For
    comparison, the average long-term official intensity errors are 6,
    10, 12, 14, and 18 kt, respectively, although interpretation is
    complicated by the timing of landfall and the small number of
    forecasts. The strengthening of Lorenzo to a hurricane was not
    anticipated (by either the guidance or the official forecasts) until
    about 9 h prior to landfall.

Watches and warnings issued by the government of Mexico in association
with Lorenzo are summarized in Table 5.

Number range CHAPTERTable 1. Best track for Hurricane Lorenzo, 25-28
September 2007.

+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| Da      | La     | Lon    | P       | Wind    | Stage              |
| te/Time | titude | gitude | ressure | Speed   |                    |
|         |        |        |         |         |                    |
| (UTC)   | (°N)   | (°W)   | (mb)    | (kt)    |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 25 /    | 21.8   | 94.8   | 1009    | 25      | tropical           |
| 1800    |        |        |         |         | depression         |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 26 /    | 21.7   | 95.2   | 1008    | 25      | \"                 |
| 0000    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 26 /    | 21.2   | 95.0   | 1007    | 25      | \"                 |
| 0600    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 26 /    | 21.0   | 94.7   | 1008    | 30      | \"                 |
| 1200    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 26 /    | 21.2   | 94.4   | 1009    | 30      | \"                 |
| 1800    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 27 /    | 21.2   | 94.7   | 1008    | 30      | \"                 |
| 0000    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 27 /    | 20.8   | 94.8   | 1009    | 30      | \"                 |
| 0600    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 27 /    | 20.6   | 95.1   | 1006    | 45      | tropical storm     |
| 1200    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 27 /    | 20.5   | 95.7   | 1001    | 60      | \"                 |
| 1800    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 28 /    | 20.5   | 96.3   | 990     | 70      | hurricane          |
| 0000    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 28 /    | 20.5   | 97.1   | 993     | 65      | \"                 |
| 0600    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 28 /    | 20.5   | 98.0   | 1002    | 30      | tropical           |
| 1200    |        |        |         |         | depression         |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 28 /    | 20.7   | 98.7   | 1008    | 20      | \"                 |
| 1800    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 29 /    |        |        |         |         | dissipated         |
| 0000    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 28 /    | 20.5   | 97.0   | 993     | 65      | landfall near      |
| 0500    |        |        |         |         | Tecolutla, Mexico  |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+
| 28 /    | 20.5   | 96.3   | 990     | 70      | minimum pressure   |
| 0000    |        |        |         |         |                    |
+---------+--------+--------+---------+---------+--------------------+

Number range CHAPTERNumber range CHAPTERTable 2. Selected surface
observations for Hurricane Lorenzo, 25-28 September 2007.

+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Location        | M   |     | M   |       |     | St  | St  | To  |
|                 | ini |     | axi |       |     | orm | orm | tal |
|                 | mum |     | mum |       |     | su  |     |     |
|                 | Sea |     | S   |       |     | rge | t   | r   |
|                 | Le  |     | urf |       |     |     | ide | ain |
|                 | vel |     | ace |       |     | (   |     |     |
|                 | Pr  |     |     |       |     | ft) | (   | (   |
|                 | ess |     | W   |       |     | ^c^ | ft) | in) |
|                 | ure |     | ind |       |     |     | ^d^ |     |
|                 |     |     | Sp  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | eed |       |     |     |     |     |
+=================+=====+=====+=====+=======+=====+=====+=====+=====+
|                 | Da  | Pre | Da  | Sust  | G   |     |     |     |
|                 | te/ | ss. | te/ | ained | ust |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | t   | (   | t   | (k    | (   |     |     |     |
|                 | ime | mb) | ime | t)^b^ | kt) |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | (U  |     | (U  |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 | TC) |     | TC) |       |     |     |     |     |
|                 |     |     | ^a^ |       |     |     |     |     |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| El Raudal       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 12  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .83 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Xicotepec       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 11  |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .83 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Zaculatipan     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .33 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Jicotepec       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .96 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Requetemu       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .53 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| El Naranjillo   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .51 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Coyutla         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .81 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Banderilla      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 5   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .04 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Temazcal        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 3   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .94 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Actopan         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 5   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .63 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Tenochtitlán    |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .83 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Rinconada       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .80 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Martinez de la  |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
| Torre           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .50 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Misantla        |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .61 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Poza Rica       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .28 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Tuxpan          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 6   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .52 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Patla           |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 9   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .45 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Cuetzalan       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 5   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .40 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Ahuazotepec     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 5   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .04 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Zacapuaxtla     |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .06 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| P. La Soledad   |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 4   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .32 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Huauchingo      |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .11 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Nexapa          |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .87 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| N. Necaxa       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .83 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Tenango         |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 8   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .27 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+
| Los Reyes       |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | 7   |
|                 |     |     |     |       |     |     |     | .64 |
+-----------------+-----+-----+-----+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+

^a^ Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are
listed.

^b^ Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and
land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; buoy averaging periods are 8 min.

^c^ Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

^d^ Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum
(1929 mean sea level).

Number range CHAPTERTable 3. Preliminary track forecast evaluation
(heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Lorenzo, 25-28 September 2007.
Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in
parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in
bold-face type.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CLP5      | 41    | 81 (  | 124 ( | 172 ( | 238 ( |       |       |
|           | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFNI      | 65 (  | 94 (  | 150 ( |       |       |       |       |
|           | 6)    | 3)    | 2)    |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFDI      | 46    | 62 (  | 70 (  | 103 ( | **71  |       |       |
|           | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    | 5)    | (     |       |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | 1)**  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | 33    | 55    | 61    | 131   |       |       |       |
|           | (11)  | (9)   | (7)   | (5)   |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GFSI      | 36 (  | 63 (  | 94 (  | 105 ( | **177 |       |       |
|           | 8)    | 5)    | 4)    | 2)    | (     |       |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | 1)**  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| AEMI      | 42 (  | 64 (  | 67 (  | 70 (  | 185 ( |       |       |
|           | 1)    | 1)    | 1)    | 1)    | 1)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NGPI      | 33 (  | **43  | 52 (  | 85 (  | 204 ( |       |       |
|           | 8)    | (     | 4)    | 2)    | 1)    |       |       |
|           |       | 6)**  |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| UKMI      | 37 (  | 63 (  | 85 (  | 100 ( |       |       |       |
|           | 8)    | 6)    | 4)    | 3)    |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMD      | 42    | 80 (  | 125 ( | 182 ( | 276 ( |       |       |
|           | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMM      | 44    | 84 (  | 118 ( | 181 ( | 299 ( |       |       |
|           | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| BAMS      | 41    | 71 (  | 97 (  | 147 ( | 198 ( |       |       |
|           | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| CONU      | 38    | 51 (  | 65 (  | 73 (  | **147 |       |       |
|           | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    | 5)    | (     |       |       |
|           |       |       |       |       | 1)**  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GUNA      | 32 (  | 65 (  | 83 (  |       |       |       |       |
|           | 6)    | 3)    | 2)    |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | 41 (  | 72 (  |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | 3)    | 1)    |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 31    | 45 (  | 51 (  | 68 (  | 180 ( |       |       |
|           | (11)  | 9)    | 7)    | 5)    | 1)    |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 35    | 61    | 86    | 112   | 162   | 221   | 290   |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (885) | (723) |
|           | 1852) | 1686) | 1519) | 1362) | 1100) |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2002-2006 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Table 4. Preliminary intensity forecast evaluation (heterogeneous
sample) for Hurricane Lorenzo, 25-28 September 2007. Forecast errors
(kt) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors
smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type.

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Number    | For   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| range     | ecast |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| CHAPTE    | P     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| RForecast | eriod |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| Technique | (h)   |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+===========+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+=======+
|           | 12    | 24    | 36    | 48    | 72    | 96    | 120   |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHF5      | 17.4  | 17.6  | *     | *     | 30.0  |       |       |
|           | (11)  | ( 9)  | *15.1 | *21.8 | ( 1)  |       |       |
|           |       |       | (     | (     |       |       |       |
|           |       |       | 7)**  | 5)**  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| GHMI      | 13.7  | *     | *     | *     | **5.0 |       |       |
|           | (11)  | *10.9 | *17.1 | *18.4 | (     |       |       |
|           |       | (     | (     | (     | 1)**  |       |       |
|           |       | 9)**  | 7)**  | 5)**  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| HWFI      | *     | 15.1  | *     | *     |       |       |       |
|           | *10.8 | ( 9)  | *17.3 | *21.0 |       |       |       |
|           | (     |       | (     | (     |       |       |       |
|           | 11)** |       | 7)**  | 5)**  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| SHIP      | 17.2  | 16.3  | *     | *     | 43.0  |       |       |
|           | (11)  | ( 9)  | *15.7 | *21.6 | ( 1)  |       |       |
|           |       |       | (     | (     |       |       |       |
|           |       |       | 7)**  | 5)**  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| DSHP      | 13.2  | 13.2  | *     | 29.0  | **7.0 |       |       |
|           | (11)  | ( 9)  | *16.9 | ( 5)  | (     |       |       |
|           |       |       | (     |       | 1)**  |       |       |
|           |       |       | 7)**  |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| FSSE      | 17.3  | 22.0  |       |       |       |       |       |
|           | ( 3)  | ( 1)  |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ICON      | *     | 12.3  | *     | *     | **6.0 |       |       |
|           | *12.7 | ( 9)  | *16.6 | *21.2 | (     |       |       |
|           | (     |       | (     | (     | 1)**  |       |       |
|           | 11)** |       | 7)**  | 5)**  |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| OFCL      | 13.2  | 11.1  | 18.6  | 24.0  | 35.0  |       |       |
|           | (11)  | ( 9)  | ( 7)  | ( 5)  | ( 1)  |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| NHC       | 6.4   | 9.8   | 12.0  | 14.1  | 18.3  | 19.8  | 21.8  |
| Official  | (     | (     | (     | (     | (     | (885) | (723) |
|           | 1852) | 1686) | 1519) | 1362) | 1100) |       |       |
| (         |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| 2002-2006 |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| mean)     |       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

Number range CHAPTERTable 5. Watch and warning summary for Hurricane
Lorenzo, 25-28 September 2007. All locations are in Mexico.

  --------------- ------------------------------- -----------------------
  Date/Time (UTC) Action                          Location

  27 / 0300       Tropical Storm Watch issued     Palma Sola to La Cruz

  27 / 1500       Tropical Storm Watch modified   Cabo Rojo to La Cruz
                  to                              

  27 / 1500       Tropical Storm Warning issued   Palma Sola to Cabo Rojo

  27 / 2100       Tropical Storm Warning changed  Palma Sola to Cabo Rojo
                  to Hurricane Warning            

  27 / 2100       Tropical Storm Warning issued   Palma Sola to Veracruz

  28 / 0900       Tropical Storm Watch            All
                  discontinued                    

  28 / 0900       Tropical Storm Warning modified Cabo Rojo to Veracruz
                  to                              

  28 / 0900       Hurricane Warning discontinued  All

  28 / 1500       Tropical Storm Warning          All
                  discontinued                    
  --------------- ------------------------------- -----------------------

![](media/image1.wmf){width="7.245833333333334in"
height="5.582638888888889in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 1. Best track positions for Hurricane
Lorenzo, 25-28 September 2007.

![](media/image2.wmf){width="7.097222222222222in" height="4.875in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 2. Selected wind observations and best track
maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Hurricane Lorenzo, 25-28
September 2007. Aircraft observations have been adjusted for elevation
using 90%, 80%, and 80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb,
850 mb, and 1500 ft, respectively. Time of landfall is indicated by the
thin solid vertical line.

![](media/image3.wmf){width="7.097222222222222in" height="4.875in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 3. Selected pressure observations and best
track minimum central pressure curve for Hurricane Lorenzo, 25-28
September 2007. Time of landfall is indicated by the thin solid vertical
line.