Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 3/25/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** TH5030

TH0000

**Thailand**

**Grain and Feed**

**Annual**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Rodrick McSherry, Agricultural Counselor

U.S. Embassy, Bangkok

**Prepared by:**

Ponnarong Prasertsri, Agricultural Specialist/Russ Nicely, Agricultural
Attache

**Report Highlights:**

Despite expected drier weather conditions, MY 2005/06 rice production
will increase slightly from the previous year\'s contraction in
anticipation of second crop recovery. Meanwhile, corn production is
forecast to decline slightly. The reduced harvest and anticipated high
domestic prices will likely limit the exports of rice and corn. In
addition, recovery in the poultry industry is expected to result in a
recovery of demand for corn. Also, wheat import demand is forecast to
continue its upward trend in response to growing demand for food and
feed uses.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Annual Report

Bangkok \[TH1\]

\[TH\]

[**Executive Summary 3**](#executive-summary)

[1. Rice 4](#rice)

[1.1 Production 4](#production)

[1.2 Consumption 5](#consumption)

[1.3 Trade/Competition 5](#tradecompetition)

[1.4 Stock 6](#stock)

[1.5 Policy 6](#policy)

[Statistical Tables 10](#statistical-tables)

[Table 1.1: Thailand's Production, Supply, and Demand for Rice
10](#table-1.1-thailands-production-supply-and-demand-for-rice)

[Table 1.2: Wholesale Prices for Rice
11](#table-1.2-wholesale-prices-for-rice)

[Table 1.3: Thailand's Rice Exports
12](#table-1.3-thailands-rice-exports)

[Table 1.4: Thailand's Rice Imports
13](#table-1.4-thailands-rice-imports)

[2. Corn 14](#corn)

[2.1 Production 14](#production-1)

[2.2 Consumption 14](#consumption-1)

[2.3 Trade 14](#trade)

[2.4 Policy 15](#policy-1)

[Statistical Tables 16](#statistical-tables-1)

[Table 2.1: Thailand's Production, Supply, and Demand for Corn
16](#table-2.1-thailands-production-supply-and-demand-for-corn)

[Table 2.2: Wholesale Price of Corn
17](#table-2.2-wholesale-price-of-corn)

[Table 2.3: Thailand's Corn Exports
18](#table-2.3-thailands-corn-exports)

[Table 2.4: Thailand's Corn Imports
19](#table-2.4-thailands-corn-imports)

[3. Wheat 20](#wheat)

[3.1 Production 20](#production-2)

[3.2 Consumption 20](#consumption-2)

[3.3 Trade 21](#trade-1)

[3.4 Policy 22](#policy-2)

[Statistical Tables 23](#statistical-tables-2)

[Table 3.1: Thailand's Production, Supply and Demand for Wheat
23](#table-3.1-thailands-production-supply-and-demand-for-wheat)

[Table 3.2: Thailand's Wheat Grain Imports
24](#table-3.2-thailands-wheat-grain-imports)

[Table 3.3: Thailand's Wheat Flour Imports
25](#table-3.3-thailands-wheat-flour-imports)

[4. Bean 26](#bean)

[4.1 Production 26](#production-3)

[4.2 Consumption 26](#consumption-3)

[4.3 Trade 26](#trade-2)

[4.4 Policy 26](#policy-3)

[Statistical Tables 27](#statistical-tables-3)

[Table 4.1: Thailand's Production, Supply and Demand for Beans
27](#table-4.1-thailands-production-supply-and-demand-for-beans)

[Table 4.2: Farm Gate Prices of Mung Beans
28](#table-4.2-farm-gate-prices-of-mung-beans)

[Table 4.3: Thailand's Mung Bean Exports
29](#table-4.3-thailands-mung-bean-exports)

[Table 4.4: Thailand's Mung Bean Imports
30](#table-4.4-thailands-mung-bean-imports)

#   {#section .unnumbered}

# Executive Summary

Despite continued drier weather conditions, MY 2005/06 total rice
production is forecast to increase slightly to 17.3 million tons in
anticipation of recovery in second crop production. Meanwhile, MY
2004/05 rice production is estimated at 17.1 million tons, down
significantly from 18 million tons in the previous year, in response to
the lack of rain during the reproductive period of the main crop and low
levels of water that limited acreage expansion of the second crop. The
reduction in the main crop production is estimated to account for the
bulk of total rice contraction, as the yield potentials of the rain-fed
main crop will be most affected. This unfavorable rice production and
the current aggressive government intervention program are expected to
put increased upward pressure on domestic prices and also export
quotations. The situation will limit Thai rice export performance in MY
2004/05 and MY 2005/06 to only around 8.0 -- 8.5 million tons, as
compared to the extraordinary high level in MY 2003/04 of 10.1 million
tons. However, stocks will likely remain at low levels and prices will
be unlikely to level off.

Unlike rice, MY 2005/06 corn production is forecast to shrink to 4.1
million tons due to the acreage contraction and lower yield resulting
from unfavorable conditions. The exportable supply will be limited, as
domestic consumption is expected to recover slightly. Import demand for
feed corn will likely remain elevated, particularly from the neighboring
countries, Laos and Cambodia, due to the duty-free import allowance
these countries enjoy.

Also, wheat import demand for food and feed use will likely recover in
MY 2005/06. Wheat demand for food is forecast to continue the strong
upward trend in line with the expansion in consumption of bakery
products and noodles. Bakery and noodle manufacturers reportedly
continue to invest in new production facilities. In addition, the number
of modern trade outlets keep increasing. Wheat demand for feed use is
expected to recover, following the expansion in shrimp farming resulting
from the favorable result of the U.S.'s anti-dumping case and the
recovery of hatcheries in Tsunami-affected areas. Moreover, the
production capacities of flour mills has increased due to the entry of
two new flour mills. However, U.S. wheat grain is being challenged by
relatively cheaper Australian and Indian wheat resulting from recent
free trade agreements. Also, further reductions of the tariff on
imported wheat flour will adversely affect the competitiveness of
high-import-content wheat flour produced locally, low premium positioned
items in particular.

MY 2005/06 bean production is forecast to continue the downward trend in
response to anticipated continued dry weather conditions and acreage
contraction due to unattractive returns. However, domestic consumption
of beans will likely grow further via various types of Mung bean-based
products. This will lead to increased import demand for relatively
cheaper Mung beans from Burma.

# 1. Rice

## 1.1 Production

Despite expected drier weather conditions resulting from the likely El
Nino phenomenon, MY 2005/06 rice production is forecast to increase
slightly to 17.3 million tons. If El Nino hits, a drop in rain will
result in main crop yield hitting a six-year low, to 13.1 million tons,
as most are rain-fed. However, the second crop production is expected to
recover to 4.2 million tons due to an anticipated weakening of the El
Nino phenomenon during second crop cultivation.

MY 2004/05 rice production is estimated at 17.1 million tons, down
around 1 million tons from the previous year. The contraction reflected
the dry weather conditions during the reproductive stage of main crops,
causing a significant drop in the average yield. Main crop production,
accounting for about 77 percent of total rice production, is expected to
decline to 13.2 million tons, as compared to 13.8 million tons in the
previous year. In addition, drought during the reproductive stage will
result in higher percentage of chalky kernels than normal, leading to
additional cost to exporters, as the chalky kernels must not exceed 6
percent (according to Thai Rice Export Standard). The continued dry
weather conditions also limit the acreage expansion of second crops,
despite the current attractive farm gate prices, which are at around
6,423 Baht/ton (roughly U.S.\$ 167/MT), up 23 percent from the same
period of the previous year. The second crop cultivation in the north
and northeast areas, accounting for about 40 percent of total planted
areas, was reportedly adversely affected by the drought, leading to a
reduction in cultivated areas by about 17 percent. However, the
cultivation in the central plain, accounting for about 60 percent of
total planted area, will likely go on due to sufficient water and
current attractive farm gate prices. The second crop production is
forecast to decline to 3.9 million tons, as compared to 4.2 million tons
in the previous year.

## ![](media/image2.wmf){width="6.666666666666667in" height="1.5in"}  {#section-1 .unnumbered}

## 1.2 Consumption

Rice is the staple food for Thais. Annual per capita consumption of rice
remains at around 110 kilograms. The increasing trend of wheat-based
production consumption remained limited to urban areas where Western
foods are becoming more popular.

## 1.3 Trade/Competition

The drought-impacted reduction in domestic supply has limited exportable
rice supplies in MY 2004/05 to 8.5 million tons and will limit supplies
in MY 2005/06 to 8.0 million tons, as compared to the extraordinary high
of 10.1 million tons in MY 2003/04. Also, Thai rice export potential
will be restricted by the strengthening Thai bath and high government
intervention prices. The market for inferior quality rice is expected to
be lost to major competitors like Vietnam. This market, accounting for
about 20 percent of total rice exports, includes the Philippines,
Indonesia, and some African countries like Mozambique Angola, Cameroon,
and South Africa. Also, anticipated sufficient domestic rice supplies in
Indonesia and the Philippines will limit the market of Thai rice.

In the first quarter MY 2004/05, white rice exports, which accounted for
about half of total rice exports, were reportedly confined to only the
pending shipments of old contracts. Meanwhile, new order demand goes to
Vietnamese rice, which is US\$ 20-30/MT cheaper due to tight supply of
Thai rice. Vietnamese rice is typically about US\$ 10/MT cheaper.
Vietnam has already been awarded about 70 percent of the Philippines'
total import demand for rice this year. The big difference in prices
could worsen even the market of the superior quality Thai white rice,
which accounts for about 24 percent of total rice exports. This market,
particularly in Iraq, Iran, and China, is reportedly facing strong
competition from Vietnamese rice. The quotations of 100% B grade Thai
white rice are currently at around U.S.\$ 300/MT (as compared to an
average of U.S.\$ 243/MT in the previous year), even being closer to
those of U.S. #2/4 long grain rice, leading to no market opportunity in
South America.

MY 2004/05 Fragrant rice exports (Thai Hommali rice) will likely decline
significantly because major importers, China in particular, shifted to
Pathumthani fragrant rice which is cheaper by around US\$ 100/MT, as it
can be produced up to three times a year in the central plain. As a
result, export prices for fragrant rice in the first quarter of this
year dropped down to around US\$ 440/MT, down 3.7 percent from the
annual average price of US\$ 457/MT in the previous year, despite a
sharp increase in the MY 2004/05 government intervention prices of
around 43 percent from the previous year. Pathumthai fragrant rice
exports to China are expected to increase considerably at the expense of
Thai Hommali rice.

In MY 2003/04, rice exports reached a record 10.1 million tons, up
considerably from the previous year, mainly due to intense demand from
foreign buyers unable to secure rice from Vietnam and India, Thailand's
major competitors, and much exportable supply of Thai rice from the
Government's stock release. Thai rice exports to China, the Middle East
and African countries accounted for the bulk of the increase. Chinese
import demand for superior white rice was exceptionally strong on top of
regular demand for fragrant rice (Thai Hommali rice), as compared to
insignificant amount of white rice imports in the past, in response to
its temporary tight domestic supplies.

Thai rice exports to the Middle East, particularly to Iraq, increased
considerably. The surge mainly resulted from more market-oriented
economy after the end of UN's 12-year economic sanctions last year on
May 22, 2003, in particular the termination of strict procurement
process under the Oil-for-Food program six month later (Nov. 21, 2003).
The current procurement administration of Iraqi Grains Board opens more
market opportunity for rice imported into Iraq.

Also, Thai rice exports to African countries increased significantly,
including both inferior white rice and parboiled rice. The surge in rice
exports to South Africa (the gateway to south African countries),
Mozambique, Angola, and Cameroon, reflected much exportable supplies of
inferior white rice from the Government's stock release. The sharp
increase in inferior rice exports to these countries were more than
compensating for a contraction in exports to Indonesia which imposed an
import ban throughout the year. In addition, exports to Ghana (mainly
superior white rice) and Benin (mainly parboiled rice) which are the
gateway to west African countries continued to increased significantly.
Meanwhile, the recovery on rice exports to Nigeria, the largest importer
of Thai parboil rice, mainly resulted from limited exportable supplies
of major competitor, Indian in particular.

As for fragrant rice (Thai Hommali rice), accounting for about 21
percent of total rice exports, MY 2003/04 exports declined slightly, as
another rice strain, Pathumthani fragrant rice, became more popular in
response to its relatively cheaper prices (around US\$ 100/MT less than
Thai Hommali rice). The government announced the Thai Pathumthani
fragrant rice standard, effective October 21, 2004, as another type of
fragrant rice, produced from the Pathumtani 1 variety. Senegal was the
largest importer of fragrant rice (Thai Hommali rice), followed by the
United States. China remained among the top three markets for fragrant
rice, but it tends to shift to Pathumthani fragrant rice.

## 1.4 Stock

MY 2005/06 rice stocks will likely continue to decline, as domestic
production is expected to increase only slightly from its sharp
contraction in the previous year. In addition, rice exports are forecast
to remain at high levels.

MY 2004/05 rice stocks are estimated to be far below the normal stock
level of around 2 - 3 million tons. The contraction reflects anticipated
sharp reduction in second crop production resulting from
drought-impacted low reservoir levels. At the moment, the government is
stockpiling through the MY 2004/05 intervention program, amounting to
around 4.4 million tons of paddy (2.9 million ton milled equivalent) as
of March 6, 2005. The government sold out the old stocks (prior MY
2004/05 intervention program) in the previous year (May 2004), totaling
1.9 million tons, all of which were for exports. Trade sources reported
that over half of these old stocks have already been exported, around 1
million tons, as of February 2005.

## 1.5 Policy

The Government continued to intervene in the domestic rice market
through the paddy mortgage scheme. The program was aggressive in MY
2004/05, as the Government announced the intervention prices early
several months before the harvest period start date (in November).
Moreover, prices were revised upward, far above the market prices, up
around 40 percent from the previous year's levels for fragrant rice
paddy, and 25 -- 30 percent for white rice paddy. The intervention
period, starting November 2004, was extended until April 30, 2005, two
month longer than the normal period. The Government planned to buy 9
million tons of paddy, including 5.0 million tons of fragrant rice
paddy, 3 million tons of white rice paddy, and 1 million tons of
glutinous rice paddy. As of March 13, 2005, the Government aggressively
bought 4.7 million tons of paddy, of which 2.6 million tons were white
rice paddy, 2 million tons were fragrant rice paddy. In addition the
Government intended to start the new intervention program for MY 2004/05
second crop shortly after the end of main crop intervention program,
regardless of the current high market prices.

In MY 2003/04, the paddy pledged with the Government dropped
significantly. The contraction mainly resulted from the second crop
intervention program which could buy only around 100 TMT of paddy, as
compared to 2.1 million tons of paddy in the previous year. This
reflected relatively attractive market prices that encouraged farmer to
sell the paddy directly to the market. The average market price of 5%
grade white rice paddy was up to around 5,400 Baht/ton (roughly U.S.\$
133/MT), far above the intervention price of 5,100 Baht/ton (roughtly
U.S.\$ 125/MT). Also, the Government sold out the old stocks, which
included the paddy from old crops (MY 2001/02 -- MY 2003/04 crops) in
May 2004, totaling 1.9 million tons, of which 1.7 million tons were
white rice and 0.2 million tons were fragrant rice. The President Agri
Trading, the third largest Thai rice exporter, was awarded all of the
government's white rice stocks at the prices below the market prices.
All rice is required to be exported by March 31, 2005.

![](media/image4.wmf){width="3.248611111111111in"
height="1.5534722222222221in"}

## ![](media/image5.wmf){width="6.25in" height="5.788194444444445in"}

##  

## ![](media/image6.wmf){width="5.533333333333333in" height="3.43125in"}

## 

## ![](media/image7.wmf){width="5.648611111111111in" height="3.3534722222222224in"}  {#section-6 .unnumbered}

## Statistical Tables

### Table 1.1: Thailand's Production, Supply, and Demand for Rice

+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **PSD Table**    |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Country**      | **    |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | Thail |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | and** |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Commodity**    | **    |       |       |       | (1000 |       |
|                  | Rice, |       |       |       | HA)   |       |
|                  | Mil   |       |       |       | (1000 |       |
|                  | led** |       |       |       | MT)   |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                  | 2003  |       | 2004  |       | 2005  |       |
|                  |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | Re    |       | Est   |       | For   |       |
|                  | vised |       | imate |       | ecast |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                  | USDA  | Post  | USDA  | Post  | USDA  | Post  |
|                  | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   |
|                  | icial | imate | icial | imate | icial | imate |
|                  | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    |
|                  | Old\] | New\] | Old\] | New\] | Old\] | New\] |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Market Year    | 01    |       | 01    |       | 01    |       |
| Begin**          | /2004 |       | /2005 |       | /2006 |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Area Harvested   | 10315 | 10315 | 10213 | 9637  | 0     | 9995  |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks | 3302  | 3302  | 1706  | 1703  | 1126  | 793   |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Milled           | 18011 | 18011 | 17400 | 17070 | 0     | 17310 |
| Production       |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Rough Production | 27289 | 27289 | 26364 | 25864 | 0     | 26227 |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| MILLING RATE     | 6600  | 6600  | 6600  | 6600  | 0     | 6600  |
| (.9999)          |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Imports    | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Jan-Dec Imports  | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Jan-Dec Import   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| U.S.             |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY     | 21313 | 21313 | 19106 | 18773 | 1126  | 18103 |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Exports    | 10137 | 10140 | 8500  | 8500  | 0     | 8000  |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Jan-Dec Exports  | 10137 | 10140 | 8500  | 8500  | 0     | 8000  |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.       | 9470  | 9470  | 9480  | 9480  | 0     | 9490  |
| Consumption      |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Ending Stocks    | 1706  | 1703  | 1126  | 793   | 0     | 613   |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL            | 21313 | 21313 | 19106 | 18773 | 0     | 18103 |
| DISTRIBUTION     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

### Table 1.2: Wholesale Prices for Rice

  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------
  **Prices Table**                                          

  **Country**               Thailand                        

  **Commodity**             Rice, Milled                    

  Prices in                 Baht            per uom         kilogram

                                                            

  Year                      2003            2004            \% Change

  Jan                       8.24            8.09            -2%

  Feb                       8.32            8.15            -2%

  Mar                       8.06            9.04            12%

  Apr                       8.07            9.01            12%

  May                       8.14            8.96            10%

  Jun                       8.26            8.96            8%

  Jul                       8.06            9.1             13%

  Aug                       7.79            9.5             22%

  Sep                       7.66            9.3             21%

  Oct                       7.41            9.67            30%

  Nov                       7.34            10.05           37%

  Dec                       7.59            10.46           38%

                                                            

  Exchange Rate             38.4            Local           
                                            Currency/US \$  

  Date of Quote             3/11/2005       MM/DD/YYYY      
  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------

### Table 1.3: Thailand's Rice Exports

+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Export Trade     |             |                    |             |
| Matrix**           |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Country**        | Thailand    |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| ###### Commodity   | Rice,       |                    |             |
|                    | Milled      |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Time Period        | Jan. - Dec. | Units:             | Metric Tons |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Exports for:       | 2003        |                    | **2004**    |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| U.S.               | 307561      | U.S.               | 367677      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others             |             | Others             |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Nigeria            | 546068      | Nigeria            | 839426      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Senegal            | 556762      | Senegal            | 569792      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Indonesia          | 763690      | Indonesia          | 155739      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Iran               | 490181      | Iran               | 610582      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Cote D\'Ivoire     | 351340      | Cote D\'Ivoire     | 398835      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| South Africa       | 420236      | South Africa       | 814271      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| China              | 254501      | China              | 698091      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Hong Kong          | 280818      | Hong Kong          | 287432      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Malaysia           | 316396      | Malaysia           | 457378      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Singapore          | 270501      | Singapore          | 205765      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Total for Others   | 4250493     |                    | 5037311     |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed  | 3039361     |                    | 4735236     |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Grand Total        | 7597415     |                    | 10140224    |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+

### Table 1.4: Thailand's Rice Imports

+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Import Trade     |             |                    |             |
| Matrix**           |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Country**        | Thailand    |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| ###### Commodity   | Rice,       |                    |             |
|                    | Milled      |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Time Period        | Jan. - Dec. | Units:             | Metric Tons |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Imports for:       | 2003        |                    | **2004**    |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| U.S.               | 20          | U.S.               | 19          |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others             |             | Others             |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| China              | 6713        | China              | 0           |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Australia          | 321         | Australia          | 473         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Pakistan           | 66          | Pakistan           | 77          |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Japan              | 19          | Japan              | 15          |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| India              | 24          | India              | 60          |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Italy              | 11          | Italy              | 14          |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Laos               | 171         | Laos               | 423         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Total for Others   | 7325        |                    | 1062        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed  | 2           |                    | 20          |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Grand Total        | 7347        |                    | 1101        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+

# 2. Corn

## 2.1 Production

MY 2005/06 corn production is forecast at 4.1 million tons, down
slightly from the previous year, in response to anticipated drier
weather conditions, which will lessen yield potential, as nearly all
corn is rain-fed. Planted areas are expected to decline slightly to 1.1
million hectares, as farmers tend to shift to more drought-resistance
crops like cassava. Also, cassava prices are currently attractive at 1.3
baht/kg, up around 60 percent from the previous year.

In MY 2004/05, corn production is revised down slightly to 4.2 million
tons, as second crop production, accounting for about 20 percent of
total production, was adversely affected by drought despite the
attractive price-triggered acreage expansion. Meanwhile, main crop
production was excellent in the major growing areas due to favorable
seasonal rainfall.

## 2.2 Consumption

MY 2005/06 feed demand will likely recover to around 10 million tons, as
compared to the previous year's contraction to 8 - 9 million tons which
was caused by a sharp drop in poultry production resulting from the
outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Feed corn
consumption, accounting for about 40-50 percent of total feed demand, is
forecast to increase to 3.9 million tons, up slightly from the previous
year, in response to the gradual recovery in boiler production by around
5 percent, and anticipated strong recovery in layer production by about
20 percent after a sharp reduction in the previous year.

MY 2004/05 feed corn consumption is revised downward to 3.6 million
tons, as compared to 3.9 million tons in the previous estimate, due to
the reoccurrence of HPAI in late June 2004. The Department of Livestock
Development (DLD) announced the latest outbreak on July 3, 2004. The
cumulative figures from the HPAI outbreak in Thailand from July 23 -
September 3, 2004 were 119 cases in 26 provinces, less serious than the
first outbreak (January 23 - May 24, 2004) when about 30 million birds
were destroyed, based on 190 cases in 42 provinces. The affected
population was mostly native chickens, ducks, and chicken and quail
layers. 373,698 poultry and 35,000 quail eggs were destroyed. MY 2004/05
feed consumption is expected to increase slightly from the previous year
in light of the anticipated recovery in poultry production in the second
half of the year. Poultry feed, composed of corn (60 percent) and
soymeal (30 percent), accounts for about half of total feed demand. In
addition, feed corn was partly substituted for by relatively cheaper
broken rice (400,000 - 500,000 tons) in swine feed, accounting for about
36 percent of total feed demand. As a result the swine feed ration is
currently composed of 20 percent broken rice, 25 percent corn (as
opposed to 45 percent in the past), and 20 percent soymeal.

## 2.3 Trade

MY 2005/06 corn exports will likely continue to decline sharply due to
limited exportable supplies resulting from the tight supply situation
and the recovery in domestic demand for feed corn. However, the export
levels are expected to be above the average annual exports of around
146,000 tons during the poultry export boom period. The import
suspension on uncooked chicken meat by the governments of importing
countries is expected to continue.

In MY 2004/05, corn exports are estimated at 600,000 tons, down slightly
from the previous year's export surge resulting from the HPAI
outbreak-triggered release of feed millers' stocks of feed corn. The
Republic of Korea, importing up to 263,475 tons in the second half of MY
2003/04, will likely shift to Chinese corn this year due to the
aflatoxin concerns. Thailand's feed corn exports remained strong in the
first half of MY 2004/05, as the exports were reportedly aggressive
earlier at the beginning of the harvested period when the moisture of
corn was still high. However, by November 2004 when the moisture
condition is excellent, Thai feed corn prices were so high that Korean
buyers shifted to China. Nevertheless, Malaysia and Indonesia are still
the major markets for Thai feed corn, accounting for about 75 percent of
Thailand's total feed corn exports, mostly due to the freight cost
advantage against feed corn sourced from China and Argentina. Currently,
Argentine corn is reportedly offered at U.S.\$ 140/MT, C&F in Malaysia.
Thai corn will likely be quoted at U.S.\$ 130/MT, FOB in order to
compete with Argentina's.

As for imported corn, import demand for corn is estimated to increase in
MY 2004/05 from neighboring countries, particularly from Laos and
Cambodia, as these countries enjoy a duty-free privilege. However, MY
2005/06 imports from these countries will likely be limited by their
smaller exportable supply resulting from anticipated unfavorable crops.

## 2.4 Policy

The Government has implemented a mortgage scheme for MY 2004/05 crop
during September -- December 31, 2004 in order to stabilize domestic
prices during the harvest period. The loan rates were set at 4.4 Baht/kg
(roughly US\$ 115/ton) for 14.5% moisture content. Deductions will be
taken for moisture above the specified level. As of December 31, 2004,
the Government bought only 42,854 tons of corn, out of the target of
800,000 -- 1,000,000 tons. Also, the Government remains focused on the
administration of a minimum tariff rate quota. The administration in CY
2005 is expected to remain unchanged from the previous year. The import
quota will be 54,700 tons at a 20 percent in-quota rate, following the
WTO agreement. In general, shipments will be allowed only during the
period of March 1 -- June 30, when domestic production is minimal.
However, in CY 2004, the Government allowed the duty-free imports of
500,000 tons during June 8 -- July 15, 2004 in order to ease the tight
domestic supply situation resulting from aggressive export demand during
the first half of CY 2004. However, there were no imports under this
extended period due to high freight costs and limited time. As for
out-of quota imports, the tariff rate will be at 73 percent with a
surcharge of 180 baht/ton. Non-WTO countries are also subject to a 2.75
baht/kg charge, and a special charge of 10.22 percent (sum of both of
these charges is close to 73 percent) plus a surcharge of 180 baht/kg.
However, according to the Economic Cooperation Strategy, for cooperation
between Cambodia, Laos, Burma, and Thailand, imports of feed corn from
these countries by the other countries are duty free without any quota
throughout the year. In addition, the imports from AFTA coutries are
subject to a 5 percent tariff rate without any surcharge and quota.

## Statistical Tables

### Table 2.1: Thailand's Production, Supply, and Demand for Corn

+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **PSD Table**    |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Country**      | **    |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | Thail |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | and** |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Commodity**    | **C   |       |       |       | (1000 |       |
|                  | orn** |       |       |       | HA)   |       |
|                  |       |       |       |       | (1000 |       |
|                  |       |       |       |       | MT)   |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                  | 2003  |       | 2004  |       | 2005  |       |
|                  |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | Re    |       | Est   |       | For   |       |
|                  | vised |       | imate |       | ecast |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                  | USDA  | Post  | USDA  | Post  | USDA  | Post  |
|                  | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   |
|                  | icial | imate | icial | imate | icial | imate |
|                  | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    |
|                  | Old\] | New\] | Old\] | New\] | Old\] | New\] |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Market Year    | 07    |       | 07    |       | 07    |       |
| Begin**          | /2003 |       | /2004 |       | /2005 |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Area Harvested   | 1110  | 1110  | 1130  | 1128  | 0     | 0     |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks | 116   | 264   | 163   | 176   | 238   | 160   |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Production       | 4100  | 4200  | 4265  | 4210  | 0     | 4140  |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.   | 5     | 12    | 10    | 74    | 0     | 60    |
| Imports          |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Imports  | 5     | 31    | 10    | 60    | 0     | 60    |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Import   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| U.S.             |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY     | 4221  | 4476  | 4438  | 4460  | 238   | 4360  |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.   | 658   | 650   | 400   | 600   | 0     | 250   |
| Exports          |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Oct-Sep Exports  | 726   | 719   | 450   | 550   | 0     | 200   |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Feed Dom.        | 3300  | 3550  | 3700  | 3600  | 0     | 3900  |
| Consumption      |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.       | 3400  | 3650  | 3800  | 3700  | 0     | 4000  |
| Consumption      |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Ending Stocks    | 163   | 176   | 238   | 160   | 0     | 110   |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL            | 4221  | 4476  | 4438  | 4460  | 0     | 4360  |
| DISTRIBUTION     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

### Table 2.2: Wholesale Price of Corn

  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------
  **Prices Table**                                          

  **Country**               Thailand                        

  **Commodity**             Corn                            

  Prices in                 Baht            per uom         Metric Ton

                                                            

  Year                      2003            2004            \% Change

  Jan                       4750            4910            3%

  Feb                       4890            4760            -3%

  Mar                       5070            5250            4%

  Apr                       5060            6750            33%

  May                       5000            7180            44%

  Jun                       4960            7090            43%

  Jul                       4900            6200            27%

  Aug                       4950            5030            2%

  Sep                       4770            4570            -4%

  Oct                       4680            4740            1%

  Nov                       4960            5030            1%

  Dec                       4940            5370            9%

                                                            

  Exchange Rate             38.4            Local           
                                            Currency/US \$  

  Date of Quote             3/11/2005       MM/DD/YYYY      
  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------

### Table 2.3: Thailand's Corn Exports

+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Export Trade     |             |                    |             |
| Matrix**           |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Country**        | Thailand    |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| ###### Commodity   | Corn        |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Time Period        | Jan. - Dec. | Units:             | Metric Ton  |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Exports for:       | 2003        |                    | **2004**    |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| U.S.               | 329         | U.S.               | 12          |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others             |             | Others             |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Malaysia           | 99221       | Malaysia           | 346185      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Taiwan             | 38034       | Taiwan             | 49709       |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Singapore          | 1653        | Singapore          | 6800        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Indonesia          | 43000       | Indonesia          | 206759      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Sri Lanka          | 2336        | Sri Lanka          | 0           |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Burma              | 679         | Burma              | 485         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Hong Kong          | 1364        | Hong Kong          | 14830       |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Japan              | 1245        | Japan              | 1310        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| South Korea        | 0           | South Korea        | 263475      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Vietnam            | 379         | Vietnam            | 53312       |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Total for Others   | 187911      |                    | 942865      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed  | 2053        |                    | 221         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Grand Total        | 190293      |                    | 943098      |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+

### Table 2.4: Thailand's Corn Imports

+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Import Trade     |             |                    |             |
| Matrix**           |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Country**        | Thailand    |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| ###### Commodity   | Corn        |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Time Period        | Jan. - Dec. | Units:             | Metric Ton  |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Imports for:       | 2003        |                    | **2004**    |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| U.S.               | 0           | U.S.               | 0           |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others             |             | Others             |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Lao Rep.           | 7848        | Lao Rep.           | 31378       |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Cambodia           | 0           | Cambodia           | 44350       |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Burma              | 0           | Burma              | 25          |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| China              | 20          | China              | 0           |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Total for Others   | 7868        |                    | 75753       |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed  | 0           |                    | 0           |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Grand Total        | 7868        |                    | 75753       |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+

# 3. Wheat

## 3.1 Production

The Government failed to promote wheat production in Thailand due to
climatic constraints, limited seed development, and unattractive
returns. Cultivation is limited to only around 550 hectare, producing
about 500 -- 600 tons. Major planted areas are in the northern region,
particularly Mae Hong Son province, which has about 80 percent of the
totaled planted area. The average yield is approximately 150-180 kg/rai
(0.9 -- 1.1 tons/hectare)

## 3.2 Consumption

MY 2005/06 wheat consumption is forecast to grow further in anticipation
of strong recovery in wheat demand for food and for feed. Bakery
production, accounting for about 30 percent of total wheat demand for
food consumption, is expected to continue the upward trend, as major
manufacturers of leading branded products continue to expand their
production capacity in the first half of the year. Also, modern trade
outlets on bakery products are growing considerably. Meanwhile, noodle
production, accounting for about 30 percent of total wheat demand for
food consumption, will likely continue the upward trend, particularly
for instant noodles, as the leading branded products have recently
invested in new production lines. The consumption of instant noodles,
accounting for about 75 percent of total noodle consumption, is
reportedly expected to grow by around 6 percent. In addition, some
instant noodle manufacturers also have diversified their products into
the snack product segment, as this market segment reportedly grew by
around 10 percent annually, as compared to only around 3 percent for the
instant noodles market over the past few years. However, biscuit
producers are facing strong competition from imported products of AFTA
countries, Malaysia in particular. As for wheat demand for feed use,
feed wheat demand is forecast to recover from the previous year's
contraction. The increase reflects the recovery in shrimp farms,
following strong export potentials due to the favorable results of the
U.S. anti-dumping case. Also, the hatchery farms in the Tsunami-impacted
areas are expected to be back to normal by the second half of the year,
leading to a greater supply of baby shrimp for shrimp farms.

In MY 2004/05, wheat consumption is revised downward from the previous
forecast, due mainly to the contraction in feed demand consumption,
which accounted for about 30 percent of total wheat consumption. Despite
the favorable results of the U.S. anti-dumping case, in which the Thai
shrimp will be charged only at 5.79 -- 6.82 percent against 5.56 --
10.25 percent in the proposal, the expansion in shrimp cultivation is
reportedly limited by the shortfall of baby shrimp in the second of the
year. About half of the hatcheries in the southern Thailand, accounting
for around half of the baby shrimp supplies available to shrimp farms in
Thailand, were totally destroyed by the Tsunami tidal wave which hit
southern Thailand on December 26, 2004. It would take about 4-6 months
for recovery of the tsunami-impacted hatcheries. As a result, baby
shrimp supplies are reportedly expected to shrink by 20 - 30 percent in
the second half of this year. However, trade sources expected that
shrimp exports will likely recover in the second half of MY 2005 with
approximate growth of around 10 percent in CY 2005 at the expense of
domestic consumption, despite an anticipated slowdown in shrimp
production in this period.

MY 2004/05 wheat demand for food consumption, accounting for about 70
percent of total wheat demand, is estimated to grow considerably. Bakery
demand reportedly increased by 15 percent in response to more capacity
utilization in most bakery manufacturers and continued expansion in
numbers of bakery outlets in the modern trade stores. Meanwhile, noodle
consumption, instant noodles in particular, is expected to grow by 3-5
percent. As for biscuit, the consumption growth will likely be steady at
around 5 percent.

The wholesale price of local wheat flour currently declined by about 10
percent from the previous year, particularly for bread flour and noodle
flour due to strong competition from relatively cheaper imported flour,
resulting from a reduction in tariff rate on wheat flour. However, the
prices of premium bread flour, accounting for about half of total bread
flour use, remained high at the same level as the previous year, as
local flour still dominates the market. Meanwhile, prices of cake flour
remain unchanged from the previous year, because it is considered to be
a niche market which is sensitive to quality so that imported flour
could not compete with local flour. Also, prices of biscuit flour
remained steady, as the margin on this product is limited due to strong
competition among local flour manufacturers.

![](media/image8.wmf){width="5.18125in" height="1.7770833333333333in"}

## 3.3 Trade

Thailand relies heavily on imported wheat in light of insignificant
domestic production. MY 2005/06 wheat grain imports are forecast to
increase by around 5 percent in line with the wheat demand for food and
feed consumption. The U.S. will likely continue to be the major supplier
of high protein content wheat, which is usually used to produce premium
bread flour. However, U.S. wheat is being challenged by relatively
cheaper Australian and Indian wheat resulting from their free trade
agreements with Thailand. Australian wheat will be cheaper than the U.S.
wheat by around U.S.\$ 2-3/MT on top of the import prices, starting on
January 1, 2005 when wheat from Australia is duty free. Meanwhile,
Indian wheat is currently about U.S.\$ 2/MT cheaper. By September 1,
2005, it will be still cheaper, as duties are lowered. And by September
1, 2006 the Indian wheat will be duty free like Australian wheat. In
addition, U.S. wheat market potential will be limited by relatively
cheaper imported wheat flour from Singapore and Malaysia due to the
reduction on the tariff on imported wheat flour to 5 percent, effective
January 1, 2005, as compared to the tariff rate of 25.5 percent for the
previous year (October 4 -- December 31, 2004). Import prices of wheat
grain currently increased by 10 percent from the previous year for
medium protein content, and up to 20 percent for high protein content,
in particular 15% protein content DNS wheat which is currently bought at
U.S.\$ 260-280/MT, C&F. Regarding the upward pressure on prices of high
protein wheat grain due to the tight supply situation in major
suppliers, the U.S. in particular, Thailand's flour millers will likely
lower their specifications for premium bread flour by shifting from 15%
protein content DNS to 13.5 -- 14.5% protein content DNS. The millers
reportedly could save by U.S.\$ 40-50/MT on the C&F prices. In general,
the price difference between 14% and 15% protein content is around
U.S.\$ 3-4/MT. As a result, the bakery manufacturers have to adjust
their products accordingly. Meanwhile, the prices of HRW, which is
usually use for all purpose wheat flour production, remained unchanged
at around U.S.\$ 210--215/MT, C&F.

MY 2004/05 wheat grain imports are estimated at 820,000 tons, down from
the sharp increase of the previous year. The contraction reflected
tsunami-impacted reduction in shrimp feed demand, of which around 25
percent is wheat. The shortfall of baby shrimp supplies will likely
limit the expansion in shrimp cultivation in the second half of the
year.\
In the first half of MY 2004/05, wheat grain imports totaled 464,534
tons, up slightly from 461,962 tons in the same period for the previous
year. The increase was partly the result of the new entry of two new
flour mills with total production capacity of around 500 tons/day. One
out of these new flour mills reportedly utilizes U.S. wheat for about 70
-- 80 percent of their total wheat grain use. Imports of U.S. wheat
grain increased by around 8 percent at the expense of the Australian
wheat. Also, imports of Canadian wheat increased significantly to 87,110
tons due to that crop's recovery. The Canadian wheat is reportedly
blended with U.S. wheat at 20:80 ratios for bread flour production. In
CY 2004, U.S. wheat maintained high market share at around 45 percent.
Meanwhile, market share for Australian wheat declined to 37 percent, as
compared to 43 percent in the previous year.

As for wheat flour, imports are expected to continue to increase
significantly, particularly in the second half of MY 2004/05 when the
tariff rate drops further to 5 percent. In CY 2004, imports of wheat
flour from China increased considerably for the second consecutive year
as a new source of inferior wheat flour due to its relatively cheaper
prices, as compared with local wheat flour. This resulted from the
tariff rate reduction to 25.5 percent (effective October 3, 2003)
against 40 percent in the past. Chinese wheat flour is mainly used in
shrimp feed. Also, wheat flour imports from Australia increased
considerably, particularly in the second half of CY 2004. Local flour
manufacturers reportedly reduced prices by about 5 percent in order to
compete with imported flour, particularly on biscuit flour. The prices
of imported flour, usually inferior grades, are relatively cheaper by 15
percent even prior to the tariff reduction to 5 percent. However, trade
sources expect local wheat flour will likely be able to compete with
imported wheat flour, as wheat flour millers still have some margin to
lower their prices to attract the end users.

## 3.4 Policy

According to the current tariff structure, the tariff rate on imported
wheat is at 0.1 baht/kg (roughly U.S.\$ 2.6/MT), effective since October
4, 2003. Meanwhile, the tariff rate on wheat flour is reduced to 5
percent (0.5 Baht/kg), effective on January 1, 2005, as compared to 25.5
percent (1.85 Baht/kg.) during October 4, 2003 -- December 31, 2004. As
a result, local flour millers have already reduced prices by about 5
percent, particularly for low premium items (biscuit flour) in order to
attract the end users. Some biscuit manufacturers are reportedly willing
to return to biscuit flour produced locally.

In addition to the current tariff structure, the recent free trade
agreements with Australia and India have brought more tariff reductions
on wheat grain. Australian wheat is duty free, effective on January 1,
2005. Meanwhile, the tariff rate for Indian wheat will be at 0.025
baht/kg (roughly U.S.\$ 0.65/MT) by September 1, 2005, down from 0.5
baht/kg (roughly U.S. \$ 1.3/MT) at the beginning of the agreement on
September 1, 2004. The Indian wheat will be duty free by September 1,
2006. As a result, the import prices of U.S. wheat are higher than those
of Australian wheat by an additional U.S.\$ 2-3/MT. As for Indian wheat,
the U.S. wheat prices will be higher by about U.S.\$ 2/MT during
September 1, 2006 -- August 31, 2006, and U.S.\$ 2-3/MT by September 1,
2006.

## Statistical Tables

### Table 3.1: Thailand's Production, Supply and Demand for Wheat

+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **PSD Table**    |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Country**      | **    |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | Thail |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | and** |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Commodity**    | **Wh  |       |       |       | (1000 |       |
|                  | eat** |       |       |       | HA)   |       |
|                  |       |       |       |       | (1000 |       |
|                  |       |       |       |       | MT)   |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                  | 2003  |       | 2004  |       | 2005  |       |
|                  |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | Re    |       | Est   |       | For   |       |
|                  | vised |       | imate |       | ecast |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                  | USDA  | Post  | USDA  | Post  | USDA  | Post  |
|                  | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   |
|                  | icial | imate | icial | imate | icial | imate |
|                  | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    |
|                  | Old\] | New\] | Old\] | New\] | Old\] | New\] |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Market Year    | 07    |       | 07    |       | 07    |       |
| Begin**          | /2003 |       | /2004 |       | /2005 |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Area Harvested   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks | 360   | 398   | 632   | 566   | 552   | 516   |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Production       | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.   | 1253  | 1017  | 1000  | 820   | 0     | 860   |
| Imports          |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Imports  | 1253  | 1017  | 1000  | 820   | 0     | 0     |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Import   | 450   | 409   | 0     | 330   | 0     | 0     |
| U.S.             |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY     | 1613  | 1415  | 1632  | 1386  | 552   | 1376  |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.   | 81    | 9     | 80    | 10    | 0     | 10    |
| Exports          |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Exports  | 81    | 9     | 80    | 10    | 0     | 10    |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Feed Dom.        | 270   | 270   | 280   | 260   | 0     | 280   |
| Consumption      |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.       | 900   | 840   | 1000  | 860   | 0     | 910   |
| Consumption      |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Ending Stocks    | 632   | 566   | 552   | 516   | 0     | 456   |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL            | 1613  | 1415  | 1632  | 1386  | 0     | 1376  |
| DISTRIBUTION     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

### Table 3.2: Thailand's Wheat Grain Imports

  --------------------- -------------- --------------------- --------------
  **Import Trade                                             
  Matrix**                                                   

  **Country**           Thailand                             

  **Commodity**         Wheat          (Grain)               

  Time Period           Jan. - Dec.    Units:                Metric Ton

  Imports for:          2003                                 **2004**

  U.S.                  354834         U.S.                  425771

  Others                               Others                

  Australia             335994         Australia             352463

  Canada                84183          Canada                163249

  India                 5372           India                 168

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

  Total for Others      425549                               515880

  Others not Listed     1134                                 7699

  Grand Total           781517                               949350
  --------------------- -------------- --------------------- --------------

### Table 3.3: Thailand's Wheat Flour Imports

  --------------------- -------------- --------------------- --------------
  **Import Trade                                             
  Matrix**                                                   

  **Country**           Thailand                             

  **Commodity**         Wheat          (Flour)               

  Time Period           Jan. - Dec.    Units:                Metric Ton

  Imports for:          2003                                 **2004**

  U.S.                  1              U.S.                  2

  Others                               Others                

  Singapore             10423          Singapore             10988

  Japan                 14223          Japan                 17978

  Australia             2149           Australia             5429

  Malaysia              4525           Malaysia              4510

  Belgium               4799           Belgium               1876

  Vietnam               4051           Vietnam               903

  China                 5751           China                 12967

                                                             

                                                             

                                                             

  Total for Others      45921                                54651

  Others not Listed     1951                                 2671

  Grand Total           47873                                57324
  --------------------- -------------- --------------------- --------------

# 4. Bean

## 4.1 Production

MY 2005 pulse production is forecast to decline further due to the
likelihood for drier weather conditions and relatively unattractive
returns as compared to other crops like tapioca and sugar cane. Planted
areas will likely continue to decline, despite the current high farmgate
prices of around 15.62 Baht/kg, up 16 percent from the previous year.
Farmers reportedly tend to shift out of beans to corn and tapioca crop
due to low yield potentials. In MY 2004, pulse production is revised
downward to 243,000 tons, down from 251,000 tons in the previous year.
Several farmers left their land idle after the harvesting of their major
field crops (e.g. paddy), due to drought.

## 4.2 Consumption

MY 2005 bean consumption will likely continue the upward trend. Most
Mung beans are raw material for vermicelli, accounting for about half of
total Mung beans use. The vermicelli by-products are reportedly used as
feedstuffs. However, Mung beans are not utilized directly as feedstuffs
as the prices are too high. Mung beans are also used to produce other
kinds of food stuffs, such as bean flour, bean sprouts and cake, and
various confectionary items.

The average farm gate prices of Mung bean increased sharply to 14.73
Baht/kg. (roughly U.S.\$ 366/MT) in MY 2004, as compared to 10.9 Baht/kg
(roughly U.S.\$ 263/MT) in the previous year. The price surge mainly
reflected the tight supply situation resulting from the drought.

## 4.3 Trade

In MY 2005, bean exports will likely continue their downward trend to
8,000 tons in anticipation of the limited exportable supply resulting
from unfavorable crop conditions. Also, Thai Mung bean export prices
were reportedly higher than major competitors, Burma in particular, by
about U.S.\$ 30/MT in a nearby major market, India in particular. In MY
2004, Mung bean exports declined significantly from the previous year.
The contraction mainly resulted from a sharp reduction in exports to
Asian countries, particularly India, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka.
Burma will likely gain more market share in these countries, as Thai
Mung bean export quotations were around 20 percent higher than the
previous year's.

As for Mung bean imports, import demand is forecast to grow dramatically
in response to an anticipated shortfall in domestic production. In MY
2004, Mung bean imports increased significantly to 6,084 tons, following
insufficient domestic supplies. Most imports were from Burma.

## 4.4 Policy

Mung beans are considered to be a minor crop, in which the Government
does not offer any intervention program. The crop is encouraged by the
Government as a second crop to replace paddy.

## Statistical Tables

### Table 4.1: Thailand's Production, Supply and Demand for Beans

+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **PSD Table**    |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Country**      | **    |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | Thail |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | and** |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Commodity**    | **Be  |       |       |       | (1000 |       |
|                  | ans** |       |       |       | HA)   |       |
|                  |       |       |       |       | (1000 |       |
|                  |       |       |       |       | MT)   |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                  | 2003  |       | 2004  |       | 2005  |       |
|                  |       |       |       |       |       |       |
|                  | Re    |       | Est   |       | For   |       |
|                  | vised |       | imate |       | ecast |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|                  | USDA  | Post  | USDA  | Post  | USDA  | Post  |
|                  | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   | Off   | Est   |
|                  | icial | imate | icial | imate | icial | imate |
|                  | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    | \[    |
|                  | Old\] | New\] | Old\] | New\] | Old\] | New\] |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| **Market Year    | 01    |       | 01    |       | 01    |       |
| Begin**          | /2003 |       | /2004 |       | /2005 |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Area Harvested   | 0     | 293   | 0     | 285   | 0     | 280   |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Beginning Stocks | 0     | 19    | 0     | 18    | 0     | 15    |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Production       | 0     | 251   | 0     | 243   | 0     | 240   |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.   | 0     | 1     | 0     | 6     | 0     | 15    |
| Imports          |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Imports  | 0     | 4     | 0     | 10    | 0     | 10    |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Import   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     |
| U.S.             |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL SUPPLY     | 0     | 271   | 0     | 267   | 0     | 270   |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Mkt. Yr.   | 0     | 18    | 0     | 12    | 0     | 10    |
| Exports          |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Jul-Jun Exports  | 0     | 10    | 0     | 17    | 0     | 10    |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Feed Dom.        | 0     | 5     | 0     | 4     | 0     | 0     |
| Consumption      |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL Dom.       | 0     | 235   | 0     | 240   | 0     | 250   |
| Consumption      |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Ending Stocks    | 0     | 18    | 0     | 15    | 0     | 10    |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TOTAL            | 0     | 271   | 0     | 267   | 0     | 270   |
| DISTRIBUTION     |       |       |       |       |       |       |
+------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

### Table 4.2: Farm Gate Prices of Mung Beans

  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------
  **Prices Table**                                          

  **Country**               Thailand                        

  **Commodity**             Beans                           

  Prices in                 Baht            per uom         Metric Tons

                                                            

  Year                      2003            2004            \% Change

  Jan                       10350           13440           30%

  Feb                       9050            15010           66%

  Mar                       9650            14830           54%

  Apr                       9360            15460           65%

  May                       9360            15460           65%

  Jun                       9360            13280           42%

  Jul                       9360            13750           47%

  Aug                       10980           12740           16%

  Sep                       11230           12490           11%

  Oct                       11710           13220           13%

  Nov                       13350           14540           9%

  Dec                       13890           15160           9%

                                                            

  Exchange Rate             38.4            Local           
                                            Currency/US \$  

  Date of Quote             3/11/2005       MM/DD/YYYY      
  ------------------------- --------------- --------------- ---------------

### Table 4.3: Thailand's Mung Bean Exports

+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Export Trade     |             |                    |             |
| Matrix**           |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Country**        | Thailand    |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| ###### Commodity   | Beans       |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Time Period        | Jan. - Dec. | Units:             | Metric Ton  |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Exports for:       | 2003        |                    | **2004**    |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| U.S.               | 2137        | U.S.               | 2170        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others             |             | Others             |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Cambodia           | 593         | Cambodia           | 1           |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Hong Kong          | 1631        | Hong Kong          | 1573        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| India              | 3156        | India              | 386         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Indonesia          | 3156        | Indonesia          | 600         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Japan              | 1188        | Japan              | 972         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Malaysia           | 1036        | Malaysia           | 746         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Pakistan           | 131         | Pakistan           | 3197        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Philippines        | 1532        | Philippines        | 44          |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Singapore          | 1005        | Singapore          | 652         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Sri Lanka          | 1685        | Sri Lanka          | 322         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Total for Others   | 15113       |                    | 8493        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed  | 1198        |                    | 1713        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Grand Total        | 18448       |                    | 12376       |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+

### Table 4.4: Thailand's Mung Bean Imports

+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Import Trade     |             |                    |             |
| Matrix**           |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| **Country**        | Thailand    |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| ###### Commodity   | Beans       |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Time Period        | Jan. - Dec. | Units:             | Metric Tons |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Imports for:       | 2003        |                    | **2004**    |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| U.S.               | 0           | U.S.               | 0           |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others             |             | Others             |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Burma              | 914         | Burma              | 5933        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Malaysia           | 110         | Malaysia           | 46          |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Indonesia          | 23          | Indonesia          | 104         |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| China              | 26          | China              | 1           |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
|                    |             |                    |             |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Total for Others   | 1073        |                    | 6084        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Others not Listed  | 0           |                    | 0           |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+
| Grand Total        | 1073        |                    | 6084        |
+--------------------+-------------+--------------------+-------------+

End of Report.