Voluntary Report - public distribution

**Date:** 3/1/2004

**GAIN Report Number:** IN4018

IN4018

**India**

**Oilseeds and Products**

**March Update**

**2004**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Chad R. Russell

U.S. Embassy, FASNEWDELHI

**Prepared by:**

V. Shunmugam

**Report Highlights:**

Post expects a bumper rapeseed crop estimated at 6.2 million tons during
MY 2003.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: No

Unscheduled Report

New Delhi \[IN1\]

\[IN\]

# India set to reap a bumper winter rapeseed/mustard crop 

Post expects a bumper rapeseed crop estimated at 6.2 million tons during
MY 2003, due to improved and equally spread rainfall, boosted by very
favorable weather conditions that minimized chances of pest or disease
incidents. Post's visit to the major rapeseed/mustard growing areas in
Rajasthan indicated an increase in the mustard-sown area with fields
having an optimal population of healthy but drooping plants unable to
bear the mass of pods, a symbol of higher production and productivity.

Farmers interviewed during Post's recent field trip were optimistic
about the performance of their rapeseed/mustard crop, and said that the
increased productivity, coupled with prevailing high prices, would boost
their farm incomes. This is expected to augur well for higher
rapeseed/mustard planting intentions next year. A visit to a major
market revealed that farmers received prices ranging from \$420 per ton
to a high of \$510 per ton, depending on the moisture level and the age
of the seeds. Trade sources indicated that the arrival of old stocks is
low this year compared to the past 3 years, which indicates low
carry-over (estimated at 100,000 -- 150,000 tons) from the previous
crop. These low carry-over stocks are attributed to the peak prices
(\$531 - \$552/ton) that prevailed last season.

Indian edible oil imports set to decline in response to increased
domestic supplies

In response to higher domestic production of Kharif oilseed crops and
improved production conditions for winter oilseeds crops, Indian edible
oil imports from October- January (partial MY 2003), have decreased by 6
percent and are estimated at 1.3 million tons. Soybean oil imports have
declined by 61 percent in response to higher domestic soybean production
and tight world supplies. Price competitiveness and wide acceptability
among the consumers keep palm oil in the "most preferred" spot among
importers, constituting 89 percent of total imports during partial MY
2003 (Oct -- Jan). Despite refiners' fears following the removal of the
Special Additional Duty, refined edible oil imports increased from a
negligible level to just about one quarter of total edible oil imports.

**Table 1: Commodity, Rapeseed, PSD**

  -------------------- -------------- ------------- ------ ------------- ------ ------------- --------------
  **PSD Table**                                                                               

  **Country:**         **India**                                                              

  **Commodity:**       **Rapeseed**                                                           

                                      **2001**             **2002**             **2003**      UOM

                       Old            New           Old    New           Old    New           

  **Market Year                       **10/2001**          **10/2002**          **10/2003**   (MONTH/YEAR)
  Begin**                                                                                     

  Area Planted         5250           5250          4800   4800          6600   6600          (1000 HA)

  Area Harvested       5250           5250          4800   4800          6600   6600          (1000 HA)

  Beginning Stocks     525            525           400    400           330    330           (1000 MT)

  Production           4500           4500          3600   3600          5800   6200          (1000 MT)

  MY Imports           0              0             0      0             0      0             (1000 MT)

  MY Imp. from U.S.    0              0             0      0             0      0             (1000 MT)

  MY Imp. from the EC  0              0             0      0             0      0             (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL SUPPLY**     5025           **5025**      4000   **4000**      6130   **6530**      (1000 MT)

  MY Exports           0              0             0      0             0      0             (1000 MT)

  MY Exp. to the EC    0              0             0      0             0      0             (1000 MT)

  Crush Dom.           3985           3985          3163   3163          4900   5400          (1000 MT)
  Consumption                                                                                 

  Food Use Dom.        435            435           344    344           550    500           (1000 MT)
  Consump.                                                                                    

  Feed Waste           205            205           163    163           245    245           (1000 MT)
  Dom.Consum.                                                                                 

  **Total Dom.         4625           4625          3670   3670          5695   6145          (1000 MT)
  Consumption**                                                                               

  Ending Stocks        400            400           330    330           435    385           (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL              5025           **5025**      4000   **4000**      6130   **6530**      (1000 MT)
  DISTRIBUTION**                                                                              

  Calendar Year        0              0             0      0             0      0             (1000 MT)
  Imports                                                                                     

  Calendar Yr Imp.     0              0             0      0             0      0             (1000 MT)
  U.S.                                                                                        

  Calendar Year        0              0             0      0             0      0             (1000 MT)
  Exports                                                                                     

  Calndr Yr Exp. to    0              0             0      0             0      0             (1000 MT)
  U.S.                                                                                        
  -------------------- -------------- ------------- ------ ------------- ------ ------------- --------------

**Table 2: Commodity, Rapeseed Meal, PSD**

+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| **PSD      |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
| Table**    |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| **         | **In  |       |       |       |       |      |       |
| Country:** | dia** |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| **Co       |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
| mmodity:** |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
|            |       | **2   |       | **2   |       | **20 | UOM   |
|            |       | 001** |       | 002** |       | 03** |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
|            | Old   | New   | Old   | New   | Old   | New  |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| # Market   |       | *     |       | *     |       | **1  | (M    |
| Year Begin |       | *10/2 |       | *10/2 |       | 0/20 | ONTH/ |
|            |       | 001** |       | 002** |       | 03** |       |
|            |       |       |       |       |       |      | YEAR) |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Crush      | 3985  | 3985  | 3163  | 3163  | 4900  | 5400 | (1000 |
|            |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Extr. Rate | 0.66  | 0.66  | 0.66  | 0.66  | 0.66  | 0.66 |       |
|            | 62484 | 62484 | 55074 | 55074 | 61224 | 2037 |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Beginning  | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
| Stocks     |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Production | 2655  | 2655  | 2105  | 2105  | 3264  | 3575 | (1000 |
|            |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| MY Imports | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
|            |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| MY Imp.    | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
| from U.S.  |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| MY Imp.    | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
| from the   |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
| EC         |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| **TOTAL    | 2655  | **2   | 2105  | **2   | 3264  | **35 | (1000 |
| SUPPLY**   |       | 655** |       | 105** |       | 75** | MT)   |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| MY Exports | 350   | 350   | 400   | 450   | 600   | 650  | (1000 |
|            |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| MY Exp. to | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
| the EC     |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Industrial | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
| Dom.       |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
|            |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
| Consum     |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Food Use   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
| Dom.       |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
|            |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
| Consump.   |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Feed Waste | 2305  | 2305  | 1705  | 1655  | 2664  | 2925 | (1000 |
| Dom.       |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
|            |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
| Consum.    |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| **Total    | 2305  | 2305  | 1705  | 1655  | 2664  | 2925 | (1000 |
| Dom.**     |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
|            |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
| **Con      |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
| sumption** |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Ending     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
| Stocks     |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| **TOTAL    | 2655  | **2   | 2105  | **2   | 3264  | **35 | (1000 |
| DIST       |       | 655** |       | 105** |       | 75** | MT)   |
| RIBUTION** |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Calendar   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
| Year       |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
| Imports    |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Calendar   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
| Yr Imp.    |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
| U.S.       |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Calendar   | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
| Year       |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
| Exports    |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+
| Calndr Yr  | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0     | 0    | (1000 |
| Exp. to    |       |       |       |       |       |      | MT)   |
| U.S.       |       |       |       |       |       |      |       |
+------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+

**Table 3: Commodity, Rapeseed Oil, PSD**

+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| **PSD        |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
| Table**      |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| **Country:** | *    |      |     |      |       |      |         |
|              | *Ind |      |     |      |       |      |         |
|              | ia** |      |     |      |       |      |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| **           |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
| Commodity:** |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
|              |      | **20 |     | **20 |       | **20 | UOM     |
|              |      | 01** |     | 02** |       | 03** |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
|              | Old  | New  | Old | New  | Old   | New  |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| **Market     |      | **1  |     | **1  |       | **1  | (MONT   |
| Year Begin** |      | 0/20 |     | 0/20 |       | 0/20 | H/YEAR) |
|              |      | 01** |     | 02** |       | 03** |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Crush        | 3985 | 3985 | 3   | 3163 | 4900  | 5400 | (1000   |
|              |      |      | 163 |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Extr. Rate   | 0    | 0    | 0.  | 0.34 | 0.341 | 0    |         |
|              | .341 | .341 | 341 | 1448 | 42857 | .342 |         |
|              | 2798 | 2798 | 448 |      |       | 5926 |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Beginning    | 100  | 100  | 120 | 120  | 80    | 36   | (1000   |
| Stocks       |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Production   | 1360 | 1360 | 1   | 1080 | 1673  | 1850 | (1000   |
|              |      |      | 080 |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| MY Imports   | 5    | 5    | 50  | 6    | 25    | 10   | (1000   |
|              |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| MY Imp. from | 0    | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0     | 0    | (1000   |
| U.S.         |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| MY Imp. from | 0    | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0     | 0    | (1000   |
| the EC       |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| **TOTAL      | 1465 | **14 | 1   | **12 | 1778  | **18 | (1000   |
| SUPPLY**     |      | 65** | 250 | 06** |       | 96** | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| MY Exports   | 0    | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0     | 0    | (1000   |
|              |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| MY Exp. to   | 0    | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0     | 0    | (1000   |
| the EC       |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Industrial   | 0    | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0     | 0    | (1000   |
| Dom.         |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
|              |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
| Consum       |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Food Use     | 1345 | 1345 | 1   | 1170 | 1645  | 1746 | (1000   |
| Dom.         |      |      | 170 |      |       |      | MT)     |
|              |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
| Consump.     |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Feed Waste   | 0    | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0     | 0    | (1000   |
| Dom.         |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
|              |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
| Consum.      |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| **Total      | 1345 | 1345 | 1   | 1170 | 1645  | 1746 | (1000   |
| Dom.**       |      |      | 170 |      |       |      | MT)     |
|              |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
| **C          |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
| onsumption** |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Ending       | 120  | 120  | 80  | 36   | 133   | 150  | (1000   |
| Stocks       |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| **TOTAL**    | 1465 | **14 | 1   | **12 | 1778  | **18 | (1000   |
|              |      | 65** | 250 | 06** |       | 96** | MT)     |
| **DI         |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
| STRIBUTION** |      |      |     |      |       |      |         |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Calendar     | 0    | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0     | 0    | (1000   |
| Year Imports |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Calendar Yr  | 0    | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0     | 0    | (1000   |
| Imp. U.S.    |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Calendar     | 0    | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0     | 0    | (1000   |
| Year Exports |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+
| Calndr Yr    | 0    | 0    | 0   | 0    | 0     | 0    | (1000   |
| Exp. to U.S. |      |      |     |      |       |      | MT)     |
+--------------+------+------+-----+------+-------+------+---------+