Appendix J

HPVA RESULTS FOR SALMON AND steelhead PRODUCTION in WASHINGTON LOWER
COLUMBIA BASINS

***Craig Busack and Dan Rawding***

***Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife***

Tables J.1 through J.5 present the results of habitat population
viability analyses (HPVA) completed to date of Lower Columbia basins in
Washington State for chinook salmon, steelhead, and chum salmon
production. Results are presented for three levels of habitat
attributes: current conditions, PFC+ conditions, and historical
conditions. The PFC+ level assumes properly functioning conditions in
freshwater, as per the Matrix of Pathways and Indicators (NMFS 1996),
and historical estuarine and nearshore conditions. Productivities,
capacities, and equilibrium (no harvest) numbers of spawners (Neq) are
presented for each of these levels of habitat condition, assuming a
Beverton-Holt production function. The diversity index is the percentage
of theoretical life-history trajectories possible that are viable under
the specified habitat conditions.

Literature Cited

National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). 1996. Making Endangered
Species Act determinations of effect for individual or grouped actions
at the watershed scale.

Table J.1 HPVA results for fall chinook salmon production in Washington
Lower Columbia basins.

  ------------- ------------ -------------- ----------- -------- -----------
  Basin         Habitat      Productivity   Capacity    N~eq~    Diversity
                Condition                                        Index

  Grays         Current      2.4            854         491      92%

                PFC+         10.2           2,485       2,241    100%

                Historical   12.6           2,690       2,477    100%

  Lower Cowlitz Current      5.9            9,626       7,992    65%

                PFC+         14.6           39,931      37,191   100%

                Historical   16.2           57,506      53,956   100%

  Coweeman      Current      3.6            2,355       1,695    100%

                PFC+         12.1           4,885       4,482    100%

                Historical   16.0           5,304       4,971    100%

  Toutle        Current      2.1            6,974       3,715    56%

                PFC+         11.1           23,840      21,683   100%

                Historical   14.5           27,275      25,392   100%

  Kalama        Current      2.3            1,007       560      73%

                PFC+         5.9            1,519       1,262    100%

                Historical   9.8            2,733       2,455    100%

  East Fork     Current      4.0            1,842       1,375    100%
  Lewis                                                          

                PFC+         10.9           3,980       3,614    100%

                Historical   13.7           4,554       4,220    100%

  North Fork    Current      11.5           14,764      13,483   100%
  Lewis                                                          

                PFC+         19.2           36,226      34,339   100%

                Historical   22.7           45,369      43,371   100%

  Washougal     Current      4.7            2,592       2,041    100%

                PFC+         12.4           6,260       5,756    100%

                Historical   16.9           7,990       7,518    100%

  Wind          Current      4.1            647         490      65%

                PFC+         9.5            2,642       2,363    97%
  ------------- ------------ -------------- ----------- -------- -----------

Table J.2 HPVA results for spring chinook salmon production in
Washington Lower Columbia basins.

  -------------- ------------- -------------- ----------- -------- -----------
  Basin          Habitat       Productivity   Capacity    N~eq~    Diversity
                 Condition                                         Index

  Toutle         Current       1.2            465         68       2%

                 PFC+          15.3           2,280       2,131    100%

                 Historical    25.1           3,022       2,901    100%

  Kalama         Current       3.6            1,186       852      86%

                 PFC+          12.5           2,409       2,217    100%

                 Historical    26.9           4,340       4,178    100%

  Wind           Current       3.6            1,747       1,256    89%

                 PFC+          7.8            2,567       2,238    100%

                 Historical    17.7           4,215       3,977    100%
  -------------- ------------- -------------- ----------- -------- -----------

Table J.3 HPVA results for summer steelhead production in Washington
Lower Columbia basins.

  -------------- ------------ -------------- ----------- -------- -----------
  Basin          Habitat      Productivity   Capacity    N~eq~    Diversity
                 Condition                                        Index

  Kalama         Current      3.9            1,237       923      88%

                 PFC+         9.5            1,606       1,437    97%

                 Historical   16.8           3,365       3,165    100%

  East Fork      Current      1.8            200         91       17%
  Lewis                                                           

                 PFC+         4.4            395         306      85%

                 Historical   7.2            491         422      98%

  Washougal      Current      3.0            568         376      67%

                 PFC+         8.9            1,227       1,089    91%

                 Historical   15.4           1,517       1,419    100%

  Wind           Current      5.9            1,357       1,125    71%

                 PFC+         8.7            1,588       1,404    86%

                 Historical   14.0           2,463       2,288    100%
  -------------- ------------ -------------- ----------- -------- -----------

Table J.4 HPVA results for winter steelhead production in Washington
Lower Columbia basins.

  -------------- ------------ -------------- ----------- ------- -----------
  Basin          Habitat      Productivity   Capacity    N~eq~   Diversity
                 Condition                                       Index

  Lower Cowlitz  Current      5.0            397         318     30%

                 PFC+         18.6           1,639       1,551   99%

                 Historical   28.4           1,733       1,672   94%

  Coweeman       Current      3.6            1,094       786     50%

                 PFC+         12.6           1,894       1,743   92%

                 Historical   18.4           2,372       2,243   100%

  Toutle (total) Current      2.8            2,145       1,382   37%

                 PFC+         15.8           8,003       7,497   96%

                 Historical   23.7           9,116       8,731   98%

  South Fork     Current      3.4            785         551     52%
  Toutle                                                         

                 PFC+         15.6           2,344       2,194   91%

                 Historical   21.9           2,752       2,627   99%

  Main           Current      1.5            274         96      7%
  stem/North                                                     
  Fork Toutle                                                    

                 PFC+         15.0           2,119       1,978   100%

                 Historical   24.9           2,370       2,275   100%

  Green          Current      2.3            525         291     33%

                 PFC+         10.2           1,344       1,212   96%

                 Historical   17.1           1,588       1,495   100%

  Kalama         Current      5.2            1,314       1,060   92%

                 PFC+         16.1           1,793       1,681   99%

                 Historical   22.6           579         554     100%

  East Fork      Current      5.3            1,337       1,087   61%
  Lewis                                                          

                 PFC+         17.3           2,633       2,480   98%

                 Historical   26.6           3,253       3,131   100%

  North Fork     Current      5.0            416         333     96%
  Lewis                                                          

                 PFC+         19.8           649         616     100%

                 Historical   30.2           737         713     100%

  Washougal      Current      3.9            697         519     52%

                 PFC+         18.2           2,111       1,995   100%

                 Historical   28.7           2,588       2,497   100%

  Duncan         Current      5.3            69          56      74%

                 PFC+         10.1           132         119     93%

                 Historical   27.6           242         233     93%

  Hardy          Current      4.4            13          10      55%

                 PFC+         6.1            19          16      59%

                 Historical   11.3           31          28      99%

  Hamilton       Current      5.7            265         219     39%

                 PFC+         14.0           312         290     100%

                 Historical   32.6           549         532     100%

  Wind           Current      5.1            112         90      80%

                 PFC+         12.4           192         177     100%

                 Historical   20.2           256         243     100%
  -------------- ------------ -------------- ----------- ------- -----------

Table J.5 HPVA results for chum salmon production in Washington Lower
Columbia basins.

  -------------- ------------ -------------- ----------- --------- -----------
  Basin          Habitat      Productivity   Capacity    N~eq~     Diversity
                 Condition                                         Index

  Grays          Current      3.5            1,512       1,080     2%

                 PFC+         6.4            7,859       6,639     67%

                 Historical   9.2            8,431       7,511     72%

  Lower Cowlitz  Current      1.5            5,861       1,819     6%

                 PFC+         4.5            110,837     86,424    100%

                 Historical   5.9            158,702     131,803   100%

  Coweeman       Current      0.0            334         0         0%

                 PFC+         4.2            7,771       5,921     54%

                 Historical   4.5            10,406      8,072     58%

  Toutle         Current      0.0            564         0         0%

                 PFC+         4.8            15,937      12,630    56%

                 Historical   7.8            22,613      19,707    61%

  Kalama         Current      1.1            1,462       157       2%

                 PFC+         4.7            7,879       6,210     43%

                 Historical   6.6            11,743      9,953     50%

  East Fork      Current      0.0            4,215       0         0%
  Lewis                                                            

                 PFC+         5.1            30,269      24,334    30%

                 Historical   7.6            41,924      36,415    40%

  North Fork     Current      1.7            5,375       2,157     20%
  Lewis                                                            

                 PFC+         4.2            41,051      31,183    67%

                 Historical   6.6            62,851      53,256    72%

  Washougal      Current      1.0            568         17        0%

                 PFC+         6.2            9,939       8,336     100%

                 Historical   8.6            17,129      15,140    100%

  Duncan         Current      3.7            111         81        100%

                 PFC+         9.5            241         215       100%

                 Historical   10.3           47          43        100%

  Hardy          Current      3.0            94          63        36%

                 PFC+         10.4           245         221       36%

                 Historical   10.7           277         251       42%

  Hamilton       Current      2.9            852         557       78%

                 PFC+         10.0           3,031       2,729     88%

                 Historical   10.7           3,140       2,847     89%

  Wind           Current      1.6            952         349       13%

                 PFC+         5.2            6,432       5,203     57%

                 Historical   6.0            10,713      8,912     64%
  -------------- ------------ -------------- ----------- --------- -----------