Number range CHAPTERTropical Cyclone Report

Tropical Depression Sixteen

(AL162008)

14-15 October 2008

Daniel P. Brown

National Hurricane Center

19 November 2008

Tropical Depression Sixteen was a large and sprawling depression that
formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and made landfall about 24 h
later in northeastern Honduras.

a.  Synoptic History

    A tropical wave that departed the west coast of Africa on 27
    September appears to have played a role in the development of
    Tropical Depression Sixteen. The wave produced intermittent and
    disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity while traversing the
    Atlantic and eastern Caribbean waters. As the wave moved into the
    southwest Caribbean Sea on 10 October a broad area of low pressure
    formed. During the next couple of days, the low moved slowly
    westward over the extreme southwestern Caribbean Sea. On 13 October
    the low turned northward, passing about 90 n mi east of the coast of
    Nicaragua. On that day, the first Dvorak classifications were
    performed on the system. Thunderstorm activity continued to become
    organized around the low overnight and early the next morning, and
    it is estimated that a tropical depression formed by 1200 UTC 14
    October, about 45 n mi northeast of the coast at the
    Nicaragua/Honduras border. The "best track" chart of the tropical
    cyclone's path is given in Fig. 1, and the best track positions and
    intensities are listed in Table 1[^1].

    Convection near the center of the depression decreased a little
    later that afternoon. Around 2100 UTC, reconnaissance mission found
    a low-level vortex about 45 n mi to the west-northwest of the center
    of the large-scale cyclonic circulation evident in visible satellite
    imagery. It is likely that the center found by the aircraft was a
    smaller vortex that was rotating within the broader circulation. The
    depression did not strengthen and turned westward, then
    west-southwestward early on 15 October. The center of the
    poorly-organized depression is estimated to have made landfall
    shortly after 1200 UTC 15 October along the northeast coast of
    Honduras, just west of Punta Patuca. The depression continued to
    move slowly west-southwestward, degenerating to a remnant low by
    0000 UTC 16 October. A few hours later the low-level center
    dissipated over the mountains of east-central Honduras.

b.  Meteorological Statistics

    Observations in Tropical Depression Sixteen include satellite-based
    Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), as
    well as flight-level and stepped frequency microwave radiometer
    (SFMR) observations from one flight of the 53^rd^ Weather
    Reconnaissance Squadron of the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command. Data
    and imagery from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, the NASA Tropical
    Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the NASA QuikSCAT, and Defense
    Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, among others,
    were also useful in tracking the short-lived depression.

    The 25-kt estimated intensity of the depression throughout its
    existence is based on Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. The
    reconnaissance mission on 15 October found peak 1500 ft flight-level
    winds of 25-30 kt in some of the stronger bands of convection, which
    also support the estimated intensity.

    The depression and its remnants produced locally heavy rainfall over
    portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and Belize. The
    largest rainfall amounts in Honduras appear to have fallen over the
    northern and northwestern portions of the country. Between 14-19
    October, numerous locations in Honduras received more than 7 in of
    rain (Table 2), with a maximum amount of 14.19 in reported on Roatan
    Island. In Belize, several locations received 10-20 in of rain
    between 13-20 October. The maximum rainfall amount observed in
    Belize during the period was 21.52 in at Baldy Beacon.

c.  Casualty and Damage Statistics

    Nine deaths in Central America are directly attributed to the
    depression. An Agence France-Presse (AFP) media report from 19
    October indicates that 16 people lost their lives in Central America
    due to flooding from heavy rains produced in part by Tropical
    Depression Sixteen. The media report lists seven deaths in Costa
    Rica, four in Nicaragua, three in Honduras, and one each in El
    Salvador and Guatemala. However, the deaths in Costa Rica were
    likely the result of flooding rainfall that can be attributed to the
    disturbance from which the depression formed. Therefore, they are
    not included in the final casualty count attributed to the cyclone.
    In addition, six people remained missing at the time of the report.
    A report from the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency
    (CDERA) indicates that the heavy rains also produced flooding in
    southern Belize; however, no deaths or injuries were noted in that
    country.

d.  Forecast and Warning Critique

    The area of disturbed weather from which the depression developed
    was first discussed in National Hurricane Center products in a
    Special Tropical Disturbance Statement issued at 1530 UTC 13
    October, a little less than 24 h prior to development. Experimental
    probabilistic genesis forecasts indicated a high chance (\>50%) of
    formation beginning at 1800 UTC 13 October.

    Average official track errors for Tropical Depression Sixteen (with
    number of cases in parenthesis) were 17 (4) and 30 (2) n mi for the
    12 and 24 h forecasts, respectively. Average official intensity
    errors were 5 and 15 kt for the 12 and 24 h forecasts, respectively.
    Due to the small number of forecasts, a meaningful comparison of the
    official forecasts with the various track and intensity models is
    not possible.

Watches and warnings associated with Tropical Depression Sixteen are
given in Table 3.

Number range CHAPTERTable 1. Best track for Tropical Depression Sixteen,
14-15 October 2008.

+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+
| Da      | L       | Lo      | Pressure  | Wind   | Stage           |
| te/Time | atitude | ngitude |           | Speed  |                 |
|         |         |         | (mb)      |        |                 |
| (UTC)   | (°N)    | (°W)    |           | (kt)   |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+
| 14 /    | 15.5    | 82.8    | 1004      | 25     | tropical        |
| 1200    |         |         |           |        | depression      |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+
| 14 /    | 15.9    | 83.2    | 1005      | 25     | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |           |        |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+
| 15 /    | 16.0    | 83.6    | 1005      | 25     | \"              |
| 0000    |         |         |           |        |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+
| 15 /    | 16.0    | 84.0    | 1005      | 25     | \"              |
| 0600    |         |         |           |        |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+
| 15 /    | 15.9    | 84.4    | 1005      | 25     | \"              |
| 1200    |         |         |           |        |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+
| 15 /    | 15.6    | 85.0    | 1006      | 25     | \"              |
| 1800    |         |         |           |        |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+
| 16 /    | 15.3    | 85.6    | 1006      | 25     | low             |
| 0000    |         |         |           |        |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+
| 16 /    |         |         |           |        | dissipated      |
| 0600    |         |         |           |        |                 |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+
| 14 /    | 15.5    | 82.8    | 1004      | 25     | minimum         |
| 1200    |         |         |           |        | pressure        |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+
| 15/     | 15.85   | 84.5    | 1005      | 25     | landfall just   |
| 1230    |         |         |           |        | west of Punta   |
|         |         |         |           |        | Patuca,         |
|         |         |         |           |        | Honduras        |
+---------+---------+---------+-----------+--------+-----------------+

Table 2. Selected rainfall totals from Honduras and Belize. These totals
also include rainfall received from the incipient area of disturbed
weather and from the remnants of the Depression.

+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| Location        | Total         | Location         | Total          |
|                 |               |                  |                |
|                 | rain          |                  | rain           |
|                 |               |                  |                |
|                 | (in)          |                  | (in)           |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
|                 |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| **Honduras**    |               | **Belize ^b^**   |                |
| **^a^**         |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| Roatan          | 14.19         | Philip Goldson   | 11.59          |
|                 |               |                  |                |
| 16.32° 86.53°   |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| El Empalme      | 10.47         | La Democracia    | 9.68           |
|                 |               |                  |                |
| 15.64° 87.33°   |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| La Ceiba        | 10.11         | Belmopan         | 9.82           |
|                 |               |                  |                |
| 15.74° 86.86°   |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| Las Mangas      | 9.62          | Central Farm     | 9.04           |
|                 |               |                  |                |
| 15.71° 86.72°   |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| Lago Yojoa      | 9.19          | Baldy Beacon     | 21.52          |
|                 |               |                  |                |
| 14.93° 88.03°   |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| Las Lajas       | 9.00          | Caracol          | 7.81           |
|                 |               |                  |                |
| 14.89° 87.57°   |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| Trujillo        | 8.76          | Chaa Creek       | 11.73          |
|                 |               |                  |                |
| 15.92° 85.95°   |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| Choluteca       | 8.08          | Spanish Outlook  | 8.29           |
|                 |               |                  |                |
| 13.24° 87.16°   |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| Flores          | 7.75          | Hershey          | 16.08^c^       |
|                 |               | Hummingbird      |                |
| 14.29° 87.57°   |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| El Jaral        | 7.40          | Pomona           | 11.30          |
|                 |               |                  |                |
| 14.94° 88.00°   |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
| Marchala        | 7.21          | Melinda          | 10.48          |
|                 |               |                  |                |
| 14.13° 87.39°   |               |                  |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
|                 |               | Maya King        | 14.30          |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
|                 |               | Savannah         | 18.22          |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
|                 |               | Big Falls        | 7.67           |
|                 |               | Plantations      |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
|                 |               | Punta Gorda      | 10.96          |
|                 |               | Agstat           |                |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
|                 |               | Libertad         | 6.42           |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
|                 |               | Rio Bravo        | 8.24           |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+
|                 |               | Towerhill        | 6.89           |
+-----------------+---------------+------------------+----------------+

^a^ Total rainfall between 14-19 October 2008.

^b^ Total rainfall between 13-20 October 2008.

^c^ Incomplete.

Number range CHAPTERNumber range CHAPTERNumber range CHAPTERNumber range
CHAPTERTable 3. Watch and warning summary for Tropical Depression
Sixteen, 14-15 October 2008.

  ----------- ------------------------------ ------------------------------
  Date/Time   Action                         Location
  (UTC)                                      

  14/1500     Tropical Storm Warning issued  Honduras/Nicaragua border
                                             westward to Limon, Honduras

  14/2100     Tropical Storm Watch issued    Limon, Honduras westward to
                                             the Honduras/Guatemala border

  15/0000     Tropical Storm Watch issued    Belize City, Belize southward
                                             to the Belize/Guatemala border

  15/0900     Tropical Storm Watch upgraded  Limon, Honduras westward to
              to Tropical Storm Warning      the Honduras/Guatemala border

  15/0900     Tropical Storm Watch issued    east coast of Guatemala

  15/1500     Tropical Storm Watch upgraded  entire coast of Belize
              to a Tropical Storm Warning    

  15/2100     Tropical Strom Warning         all of Honduras and Belize
              discontinued                   north of Belize City

  16/0000     Tropical Storm Warning         All
              discontinued                   

  16/0000     Tropical Storm Watch           All
              discontinued                   
  ----------- ------------------------------ ------------------------------

![](media/image1.jpeg){width="7.9527777777777775in"
height="6.145138888888889in"}

Number range CHAPTERFigure 1. Best track positions for Tropical
Depression Sixteen, 14-15 October 2008.

[^1]: A digital record of the complete best track, including wind radii,
    can be found on line at <ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf>. Data for the
    current year's storms are located in the *btk* directory, while
    previous years' data are located in the *archive* directory.