# 2 The Tropical Cyclone R&D Community

## 2.1 Tropical Cyclone R&D as a Community Effort

The community effort required to improve forecast and warning
capabilities for tropical cyclones cannot be denied. More-accurate
forecasts of tropical cyclone behavior and accurately targeted guidance
for risk mitigation are critical to mitigate the impacts of these storms
on many segments of society, as well as on military infrastructure and
readiness. Yet, understanding the complex interactions of tropical
cyclone structure, intensity, track, and environmental forcing is too
large a problem for any single research group or Federal agency to
address alone. The many research groups and operational organizations
who work together to improve the understanding, predictability, and risk
mitigation of tropical cyclones represent a *community of practice*
whose members collaborate to share ideas, find solutions, and build
innovations as part of the social learning process essential to provide
cost-effective benefits for all.

For this communal effort to be both effective and efficient, stakeholder
needs and requirements must be clearly communicated to all groups
contributing to components or subsystems of the national forecast and
warning system. Communication of requirements helps to set boundaries
for the researchers and developers so that the most effective, feasible
solutions may be transitioned into applications. However, communication
of stakeholder requirements should not dictate a solution that would
limit the role of the researcher or developer to design the most
innovative, efficient solution.

The tropical cyclone community of practice includes a range of efforts
contributing to basic research, applied research, operations, and
decision-making as depicted in figure 2-1. The black arrows in the
figure represent the communication of requirements; the blue arrows
represent the transfer of knowledge and information. In the past, much
emphasis in the community has been placed on transitioning tropical
cyclone research into operations. However, the needs and requirements of
the public stakeholders and decision-makers impacted by tropical
cyclones were not always communicated to the tropical cyclone research
sector. This situation has the potential to create ill will and distrust
between the research and operational communities when research results
are brought forward that do not meet the practical needs of the
stakeholders. For this reason, chapter 4 articulates a set of needs from
the tropical cyclone operational community. A list of recommended
research priorities to help meet these operational needs is presented in
Chapter 5.

A challenge for the tropical cyclone community of practice is to realize
that, to maintain steady progress, research investments must include a
balanced portfolio of near-term and long-term research. An interim
recommendation from an ongoing NAS/NRC review of the NSF Atmospheric
Sciences program is that 5 percent of its research funding should be
reserved for innovative, exploratory, high-risk research (NRC 2005).
Research investments must also be balanced so that multiple science
questions across scientific disciplines are addressed to maximize the
utilization of limited resources. In a closed system or enterprise, the
work of the developers directly addresses the needs of the stakeholders.
However, in the tropical cyclone research community, some of the
developers or researchers are striving to meet multiple objectives. For
this reason, potentially valuable research results may not always arise
from funding dedicated to meeting an operational requirement. Promising
tropical cyclone research capability may arise from other research
disciplines. The synergy of the NASA research focus areas in weather,
climate, and the water and energy cycle is one example in which
promising tropical cyclone research with the potential for operational
application may emerge from any one of these focus areas.

The next six sections of this chapter examine the organizational
components and current roles in the tropical cyclone community of
practice for the following sectors of that community:

-   Federal entities conducting or managing research in the physical
    sciences (section 2.2)

-   Federal entities conducting or managing research in other
    disciplines, notably in the social sciences and in engineering
    related to mitigating storm effects (section 2.3)

-   Federal policy and coordination roles for tropical cyclone R&D
    (section 2.4)

-   The role of academia in the tropical cyclone R&D community of
    practice (section 2.5)

-   International contributions to the community of practice (section
    2.6)

-   External advisory and advocacy groups representing the science
    community (section 2.7)

The last major section of the chapter (section 2.8) reviews prior
documentation of tropical cyclone operational needs and the research
needed to meet currently unmet needs. As noted in chapter 1, the JAG/TCR
found that, taken together, these past efforts at research planning
clearly outline the tropical cyclone community's priorities, objectives,
and strategies.

## 2.2 Federal Entities Conducting or Managing Tropical Cyclone Research in the Physical Sciences

### 2.2.1 NOAA

The following statement of NOAA's origin from a number of long-standing
Government entities was extracted from NOAA's website:

> *Although NOAA was formed in 1970, the agencies that came together at
> that time are among the oldest in the Federal Government. The agencies
> included the United States Coast and Geodetic Survey formed in 1807,
> the Weather Bureau formed in 1870, and the Bureau of Commercial
> Fisheries formed in 1871. Individually these organizations were
> America\'s first physical science agency, America\'s first agency
> dedicated specifically to the atmospheric sciences, and America\'s
> first conservation agency.*[^1]

Today, the mission of NOAA is to understand and predict changes in
Earth's environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources
to meet our Nation's economic, social, and environmental needs.

For the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the
national economy, NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) provides
weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings covering the
United States, its territories, and the adjacent waters and ocean areas.
NWS data and products form a national information database and
infrastructure, which can be used by other governmental agencies, the
private sector, the public, and the global community.

The majority of research within NOAA that is specific to tropical
cyclones is designed and conducted by the Hurricane Research Division
(HRD) of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
(AOML), one of the facilities in NOAA's Office of Atmospheric Research
(OAR). HRD has numerous partners that help conduct/coordinate hurricane
research projects, including universities and cooperative institutes;
other Federal agencies (in particular, ONR in the Department of the Navy
and NASA); NOAA's Air Operations Center; other NOAA/OAR laboratories
(such as the Earth System Research Laboratory, the National Severe
Storms Laboratory, and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory);
NWS/NCEP (in particular the EMC and the TPC/NHC); and scientists at
NCAR.

In addition to EMC and TPC/NHC, other organizations or offices within
NOAA/NWS that conduct tropical cyclone--specific or tropical
cyclone--related research include: the Storm Prediction Center (another
NWS/NCEP center), the NWS WFOs, and the CPHC. Within NOAA's National
Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) is the
Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR). STAR is involved
in the planning for next-generation satellite systems, including the
development of tropical cyclone observing applications. STAR
researchers, in collaboration with its cooperative and joint institutes
at Colorado State University (Cooperative Institute for Research in the
Atmosphere---CIRA), University of Wisconsin (Cooperative Institute for
Meteorological Satellite Studies---CIMSS), Oregon State University
(Cooperative Institute for Oceanographic Satellite Studies---CIOSS), and
University of Maryland (Cooperative Institute for Climate
Studies---CICS), are involved in improving satellite-based tropical
cyclone analysis algorithms, feature track wind methods, and
statistically-based forecast techniques. STAR is also a partner in the
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA), which is described
in section 2.4.6. STAR interacts with many of the same organizations
described above for HRD and has led a number of JHT projects. The
NOAA-funded JHT is discussed further in section 2.4.5.

NOAA\'s Science Advisory Board (SAB) was established in 1997 as the
Federal advisory committee with responsibility to advise the Under
Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere on long- and short-range
strategies for research, education and the application of science to
resource management and environmental assessment and prediction. This
15-member advisory board assists NOAA in maintaining a complete and
accurate understanding of scientific issues critical to the agency\'s
missions. In the summer of 2005, the SAB established a 10-member
Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group (HIRWG) to address the lack
of progress in forecasting changes in intensity and structure
commensurate with the progress over the past two decades in forecasting
hurricane track. The work of the HIRWG and the Working Group's
interaction with the JAG/TCR are described further in section 2.8.8.

### 2.2.2 National Science Foundation and the National Center for Atmospheric Research

NSF was created by Congress in the National Science Foundation Act of
1950 (Public Law 8105071950). As stated on the NSF website
(http://www.nsf.gov/about):

> *The NSF is an independent federal agency \"to promote the progress of
> science; to advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare; to
> secure the national defense...\" With an annual budget of about \$5.5
> billion, we are the funding source for approximately 20 percent of all
> federally supported basic research conducted by America\'s colleges
> and universities.*

The NSF is also the principal Federal agency charged with promoting
science and engineering education at all levels and in all settings,
from pre-kindergarten through career development. The NSF's strategic
goals address: *People, Ideas, Tools*, *and Organizational
Excellence.*[^2]

The physical, biological, and ecological aspects of NSF's
hurricane-related research are managed through the Geosciences and
Biological Sciences Directorates (GEO and BIO). The NSF supports
hurricane-related engineering research through various programs
distributed throughout the Directorate for Engineering (ENG). The
hurricane-related research in GEO and BIO falls into three broad
categories: the hurricane as a phenomenon from formation to dissipation;
the prediction of hurricane behavior/evolution; and the impacts of
hurricanes on the built and natural environment. Most of the social
science research on warnings and hurricane-related phenomena has been
supported through ENG under the program currently called Infrastructure
Systems Management and Hazard Response. A few hurricane-related projects
have been funded by NSF's Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and
Economic Sciences.

### 2.2.3 Department of Defense

Within DOD, the Office of Naval Research (ONR) and the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers (USACE) have specific interests and focus areas concerning
their contribution to tropical cyclone research.

ONR coordinates, executes, and promotes the science and technology
programs of the United States Navy and Marine Corps through schools,
universities, government laboratories, and nonprofit and for-profit
organizations. It provides technical advice to the Chief of Naval
Operations and the Secretary of the Navy and works with industry to
improve technology manufacturing processes. The mission of the ONR is to
foster, plan, facilitate, and transition scientific research in
recognition of its paramount importance to enable future naval power and
the preservation of national security.

Within ONR, the department of "Ocean Battlespace Sensing S&T (OBS)"
consists of two large divisions, "Ocean Sensing and Systems
Applications" and "Ocean Atmosphere & Space Research." The latter
concentrates on improving the Navy and Marine Corps' understanding of
environmental evolution, the assimilation of data, and the limits of
predictability. It plans, fosters, and encourages an extensive program
of scientific inquiry and technological development in fields ranging
from environmental optics to high latitude dynamics. One of the fields
of special interest to the division is marine meteorology and
atmospheric effects. The topics of interest in the Marine Meteorology
Program include:

-   Predictability as related to dynamical and physical processes
    associated with high impact marine weather systems

-   Data assimilation, especially issues unique to the tropics for
    incorporating high data rate, asynchronous sensors (radar, lidar,
    remote sensing, etc.)

-   Tropical cyclone behavior and evolution, especially unique genesis,
    intensity, and structure issues of western and southern Pacific
    storms

In 1992, the Secretary of the Navy consolidated existing Navy research,
development, test, and evaluation engineering facilities and Fleet
Support facilities to form a corporate community. This community
consists of a single corporate research laboratory, the Naval Research
Laboratory (NRL), aligned with ONR. As part of the consolidation, the
Naval Oceanographic and Atmospheric Research Laboratory, with locations
in Stennis Space Center, Mississippi, and Monterey, California, merged
with NRL. The Ocean and Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate
of NRL performs research in the fields of acoustics, remote sensing,
oceanography, marine geosciences, marine meteorology, and space science.
The Marine Meteorology Division within this NRL directorate is commonly
referred to as NRL-Monterey and has been active in tropical cyclone
research and related atmospheric science research for many years.

The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has consolidated the
Corps' research laboratories into the U.S. Army Engineer Research and
Development Center (ERDC). The ERDC is one of the most diverse
engineering and scientific research organizations in the world. It
consists of seven laboratories at four geographical sites and employs
more than 2,000 engineers, scientists, and support personnel.

ERDC research and development supports the DOD, other Federal agencies,
and the nation in military and civilian projects. Its primary mission
areas include:

-   Warfighter support

-   Installations

-   Environment

-   Water resources

-   Information technology

The ERDC\'s Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL) provides expertise
in many areas that are associated with or impacted by tropical cyclones.
For instance, CHL provides research, development, and engineering
investigations of coastal structures and emergency flood-fighting
structures. In addition to coastal structures, CHL has keen interest in
waves, the dominant forcing mechanism for most coastal processes.
Consequently, accurate wave information is of vital interest to
essentially all coastal planning and operations. CHL supports numerous
options for dealing with the Nation's diverse coastlines. Problems such
as chronic erosion, storm and flood damage, erosion adjacent to improved
navigation projects, and wetlands creation and protection are studied
using the most appropriate combination of analytical, numerical, and
physical modeling technologies. In addition, CHL conducts research to
develop methods and tools to reduce flood damage. Associated research
includes both physical and numerical studies to identify ways to reduce
flooding levels, as well as channel restoration efforts aimed at
improving flood channel performance---hydraulically and ecologically.
All of the above interests and research areas are of direct relevance to
understanding, preparing for, and responding to the effects of tropical
cyclones after landfall.

### 2.2.4 National Aeronautics and Space Administration

President Dwight D. Eisenhower established NASA in 1958, partially in
response to the Soviet Union\'s launch of the first artificial
satellite. NASA grew out of the National Advisory Committee on
Aeronautics, which had been researching flight technology for more than
40 years.

NASA Headquarters in Washington, D.C., provides overall guidance and
direction to the Agency. Ten field centers and a variety of
installations conduct the day-to-day work in laboratories, on air
fields, in wind tunnels, and in control rooms. NASA conducts its work in
four principal organizations, called mission directorates:

-   [Aeronautics:]{.underline} pioneering and proving new flight
    technologies that improve our ability to explore and that have
    practical applications on Earth

-   [Exploration Systems:]{.underline} creating new capabilities for
    affordable, sustainable human and robotic exploration

-   [Science:]{.underline} exploring the Earth, moon, Mars, and beyond;
    charting the best route of discovery; and reaping the benefits of
    Earth and space exploration for society

-   [Space Operations:]{.underline} providing critical enabling
    technologies for much of the rest of NASA through the Space Shuttle,
    the International Space Station, and flight support

NASA has been a strong contributor to national weather forecasting goals
in the past, primarily through the development and use of data from
space-based sensors, and will continue to do so in the future (figure
2-2). A mandate of the Weather Focus Area within the Science Mission
Directorate is to investigate high-impact weather events, such as severe
tropical storms, through a combination of spaced-based observations,
high-altitude research aircraft, and sophisticated numerical models.
These programs constitute a three-pronged strategy to better understand
the physics and impacts of tropical cyclones.

### 2.2.5 U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior

![](media/image2.jpeg){width="6.25in" height="4.0in"}The USGS, which was
established in 1879, collects, monitors, analyzes, and provides
scientific understanding about natural resource conditions, issues, and
problems. The USGS, NOAA, and NASA are working to focus their joint
expertise on floods, landslides, and debris flows triggered by intense
meteorological phenomena, including tropical cyclones. The special
expertise of the USGS in this area includes capabilities to evaluate
beforehand the ambient stability of natural and man-made landforms,
assess landslide susceptibilities for those landforms, and establish
probabilities for initiation of landslides and debris flows. Although
all three agencies are conducting research on their respective aspects
of this problem, the mechanism to integrate their efforts is a proposed
project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum project.

The USGS is widely recognized as a leader in studying the
interrelationship of vegetation, ambient stream flow, ground water, soil
moisture, and geologic conditions in assessing the potential for floods.
For instance, USGS is involved with precipitation-runoff modeling of
watershed systems: using computer models to simulate and evaluate the
effects of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use
on stream flow, sediment yield, and other hydrologic components.

## 2.3 Federal Entities Conducting or Managing Other R&D Activities Relevant to Tropical Cyclone Operations

This section provides an overview of agencies that are involved in
conducting or managing research in areas outside the physical sciences
but of substantial relevance to the Nation's preparations for and
response to tropical cyclones.

### 2.3.1 Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is a formerly independent
agency that became part of the new Department of Homeland Security in
March 2003. FEMA's mission is disaster response, planning, recovery, and
mitigation. Its National Hurricane Program (NHP), housed under the
Mitigation Division, helps protect communities from hurricane hazards.
The NHP, which was established in 1985, provides tools and assistance to
State and local agencies in developing hurricane evacuation plans. FEMA,
NOAA/NWS, the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT), the USACE, and
numerous other Federal agencies are partners in this program.

Although FEMA is not in general a research agency, it does provide
limited funding for applied research activity. Past examples include the
development of an inland wind field map and funding the development of
the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, a
computer model now run by the TPC/NHC. SLOSH estimates storm surge
heights and winds resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted
hurricanes by taking into account parameters of atmospheric pressure,
storm size, forward speed, track, and winds. Current hurricane-related
activity at FEMA includes studies to support evacuation planning,
post-disaster forensic engineering evaluations, development of a
state-of-the-art loss estimation model for hurricanes, and a limited
number of problem-focused engineering and technical studies related to
the built environment.

### 2.3.2 Department of Health and Human Services

Research managed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
(HHS) that is of relevance to tropical cyclones deals mainly with
psychological distress. According to the Substance Abuse and Mental
Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), an arm of HHS, past research on
the mental health consequences of major floods and hurricanes provides a
basis for estimating the psychological impacts of the 2005 hurricanes.
In those areas significantly affected by the hurricanes, 25 percent to
30 percent of the population may experience clinically significant
mental health needs. An additional 10 percent to 20 percent may have
subclinical but nontrivial, needs. Up to 500,000 people may have been in
need of assistance.[^3]

### 2.3.3 Department of Housing and Urban Development 

HUD\'s mission is to increase homeownership, support community
development, and increase access to affordable housing free from
discrimination. To fulfill this mission, HUD embraces high standards of
ethics, management, and accountability and forges new
partnerships---particularly with faith-based and community
organizations---that leverage resources and improve the Agency's ability
to be effective on the community level.

The mission of the Office of Policy Development and Research (PD&R) is
to provide reliable facts and analysis to inform the policy decisions of
HUD, Congress, and State and local governments. Research and technology
funds enable PD&R to fulfill this mission by maintaining and expanding
information on housing needs and market conditions; evaluating current
HUD programs and proposed policy changes; and conducting research on a
wide range of housing, community, and economic development issues,
including advances in housing/building technology. In the area of
housing/building technology, HUD is concerned with developing new
cost-effective ways to improve energy efficiency in existing housing and
with improving the disaster resistance and durability of housing,
including resistance to the effects of tropical cyclones.

### 2.3.4 National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was founded in
1901 as the National Bureau of Standards, the Nation\'s first federal
physical science research laboratory. NIST's mission is to promote U.S.
innovation and industrial competitiveness by advancing measurement
science, standards, and technology in ways that enhance economic
security and improve quality of life.

Within NIST, a major goal of the Building and Fire Research Laboratory
(BFRL) is to reduce the human and economic losses resulting from
hazards, including tropical cyclones. BFRL mitigates the public safety
hazards associated with landfalling tropical cyclones through research
on ways to improve the life-cycle quality and cost-effectiveness of
constructed facilities. The Laboratory's research includes fire science
and fire safety engineering; building materials; computer-integrated
construction practices; structural, mechanical, and environmental
engineering; and building economics. Products of BFRL research include
measurements and test methods, performance criteria, and technical data
that are incorporated into building and fire standards and codes. The
Laboratory conducts investigations at the scene of major fires and
structural failures due to earthquakes, hurricanes, or other causes. The
knowledge gained from these investigations guides research and is
applied to recommendations for design and construction practices to
reduce hazards.

## 2.4 Federal Policy and Coordination Roles for Tropical Cyclone R&D

A number of Federal entities have responsibilities for coordinating R&D
or formulating and overseeing policy initiatives and priorities of
either direct or indirect relevance to some part of the end-to-end
system for tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings. These policy and
coordination roles are increasingly important to understanding the flow
of requirements and the transfer of knowledge and information among the
sectors of the tropical cyclone community of practice shown
schematically in Figure 2-1 (above). The principal entities engaged in
interagency coordination are described here.

### 2.4.1 Office of Science and Technology Policy

The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) was established in
the Executive Office of the President by the National Science and
Technology Policy, Organization and Priorities Act of 1976. OSTP's
responsibilities include advising the President in policy formulation
and budget development on all questions in which science and technology
(S&T) are important elements; articulating the President\'s S&T policies
and programs; and fostering strong partnerships among Federal agencies,
State and local governments, and the S&T communities in industry and
academia. The Director of OSTP serves as Assistant to the President for
Science and Technology and manages the National Science and Technology
Council (NSTC) for the President.

Each year, OSTP in conjunction with the Office of Management and Budget
issues the Administration's R&D priorities. These priorities provide
general guidance for setting priorities among R&D programs, interagency
R&D efforts that should receive special focus in agency budget requests,
and reiteration of the R&D investment criteria that agencies should use
to improve investment decisions for, as well as management of, their R&D
programs.

### 2.4.2 National Science and Technology Council

The NSTC was established by Executive Order on November 23, 1993, as a
Cabinet-level council to coordinate S&T policy across the diverse
entities that constitute the Federal R&D enterprise. A primary objective
of the NSTC is the establishment of clear national goals for Federal S&T
investments in a broad array of areas, spanning virtually all the
mission areas of the executive branch. The Council prepares R&D
strategies that are coordinated across Federal agencies to form
investment packages designed to accomplish multiple national goals. Each
of its four primary committees oversees subcommittees and working groups
focused on specific aspects of S&T coordination.

#### Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR)

The purpose of the CENR, which is one of the four primary committees of
the NSTC, is to advise and assist the NSTC to increase the overall
effectiveness and productivity of Federal R&D efforts associated with
the environment and natural resources. According to the CENR's charter,
"The CENR will address science policy matters and R&D efforts that cut
across agency boundaries and provide a formal mechanism for interagency
coordination relevant to domestic and international environmental and
natural resources issues."

#### Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR)

The SDR is a subcommittee of the CENR. In the words of its charter, the
SDR "is charged with facilitating and promoting natural and
technological disaster mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.
The SDR provides a senior-level interagency forum to leverage expertise,
inform policy-makers, promote technology applications, coordinate
activities, and promote excellence in research."

#### United States Group on Earth Observations (US GEO)

An Interagency Working Group on Earth Observations (IWGEO) was chartered
by the CENR for the purpose of developing the Strategic Plan for the
U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System, which will constitute the U.S.
contributions to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).
GEOSS is discussed further in section 2.6.2. The IWGEO's charter expired
in December 2004, and the working group was replaced with a standing
subcommittee under CENR, the US GEO.

### 2.4.3 NSF National Science Board

The National Science Board (NSB) has dual responsibilities as: (1)
national science policy advisor to the President and the Congress; and
(2) the governing board for the NSF. The NSB is composed of 24 part-time
members. Much of the Board's work is accomplished through its
committees. On December 1, 2005, the NSB formed the Task Force on
Hurricane Science and Engineering under the Committee on Programs and
Plans. The work of this NSB Task Force and its interaction with the
JAG/TCR are described further in section 2.8.8.

### 2.4.4 OFCM

The mission of the OFCM is to ensure the effective use of Federal
meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of
operational weather requirements, services, and supporting research
among the Federal agencies. OFCM operates with policy guidance from the
Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research
(FCMSSR). The Chairperson of FCMSSR is the Under Secretary of Commerce
for Oceans and Atmosphere and Administrator of NOAA. The members of the
FCMSSR are senior policy executives from the Federal agencies with
meteorological programs. In addition to reviewing OFCM activities and
providing policy guidance, FCMSSR is the final forum to resolve agency
differences. One of the activities through which OFCM fulfills its
mission is the preparation of an annual *Federal Plan Meteorological
Services and Supporting Research*, which documents the programs and
funding of Federal agencies in the areas coordinated by OFCM during the
prior fiscal year and provides a comprehensive review of plans for the
coming year.

As mentioned in chapter 1, OFCM hosts the annual Interdepartmental
Hurricane Conference (IHC) to educate attendees on the status and future
plans of the Nation's tropical cyclone forecast and warning service. One
of the major objectives is to plan and prepare for the upcoming
hurricane season. New procedures, procedural changes, and agreements
that are approved at the IHC and are directly related to providing
tropical cyclone forecast and warning services are then documented for
implementation in the National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP). The
44th annual edition of the NHOP was published in May 2006.

### 2.4.5 Joint Hurricane Testbed

The mission of the JHT, which is a joint program of NOAA, the Navy, and
NASA, is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research
results, and observational advances into improved tropical cyclone
analysis and prediction at operational centers. The JHT prepares, with
help from the JHT Steering Committee, a biannual Announcement of Federal
Funding Opportunity that is open to the U. S. and international
scientific community including the NOAA Line Offices, other Federal
agencies and laboratories, NCAR and other academic research entities,
and the private sector. Proposals are reviewed under the purview of the
Steering Committee, with funded projects becoming a JHT activity.

The current transfer process at JHT is described in section 3.5.2. For
additional information on the JHT, see its website at
<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/>.

### 2.4.6 Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

In the past, 2 years of preparation time have typically been required
before the data from a new satellite-based observing instrument was
ready for use in operational models. This delay typically represents 40
percent of a new instrument's expected lifetime. To expedite the
assimilation of satellite data in operational models from both a
scientific and increased data handling and management perspective, NOAA,
NASA, and DOD formed the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
(JCSDA) in 2001. The mission of the JCSDA is to accelerate and improve
the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in
weather, ocean, climate, and environmental analysis and prediction
models. The following agencies are the current JCSDA partners:

-   The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) in NOAA/NWS/NCEP

-   The Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) in
    NOAA/NESDIS

-   The Office of Weather and Air Quality in NOAA's Office of Oceanic
    and Atmospheric Research (NOAA/OAR)

-   The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA/GSFC

-   The Oceanographer of the Navy and NRL-Monterey in the U.S. Navy

-   The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and the Air Force Director of
    Weather for the U.S. Air Force

In pursuit of its mission, the JCSDA is guided by four long-term goals:

-   Reduce from 2 years to 1 year the average time for operational
    implementation of new satellite technology

-   Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models

-   Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure

-   Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on
    weather and climate prediction

Further information on JCSDA infrastructure, priority R&D areas, and
recent advances can be found on the Center's website
([http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov](http://www.jcsda.noaa.gov/)). The current
and future roles that JCSDA plays in transferring research results into
operational improvements are discussed in sections 3.5 and 4.5,
respectively.

## 2.5 Role of Academia in Tropical Cyclone Research

In general, Federal agencies that sponsor *extramural research* programs
on tropical cyclone evolution and behavior, societal impacts of
hurricanes and related severe weather phenomena, or satellite-based
observations of relevant atmospheric and oceanic properties provide
funding to university-based researchers. The research projects may be
part of an ongoing program at one of the major academic centers for
atmospheric science and related topics, or they may be conducted by an
individual principal investigator (PI) on the faculty of a college or
university. Grants awarded to proposals submitted in response to
announcements of funding opportunities by the various joint programs and
initiatives, such as JHT and JCSDA, provide a means to steer academic
research into priority areas while sustaining the competitive,
merit-based process for finding and funding the best ideas.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which receives a
substantial portion of its funding from NSF, concentrates its research
in the field of atmospheric sciences. NCAR has about 750 scientists and
support personnel and is located in Boulder, Colorado. NCAR's mission is
"to support, enhance, and extend the capabilities of the university
community, nationally and internationally; to understand the behavior of
the atmospheric and related systems and the global environment; and to
foster the transfer of knowledge and technology for the betterment of
life on Earth."

-   The design of the GPS dropsonde used by "hurricane hunter" aircraft
    was created at NCAR in the 1990s. This dropsonde takes advantage of
    the Global Positioning System (GPS) to glean accurate,
    high-resolution measurements. On each flight, dozens of dropsondes
    are sent into the heart of the hurricane to measure winds, air
    pressure, and humidity.

-   NCAR has been an active participant in the USWRP since the program
    began. As part of the USWRP focus on landfalling hurricanes. NCAR
    researchers and their collaborators are looking at ways to improve
    forecasts of changes in hurricane intensity as well as wind, waves,
    and rain at landfall.

-   NCAR is a principal player in the team for the Weather Research and
    Forecasting (WRF) computer modeling initiative. A special
    hurricane-oriented version of WRF called HWRF is being developed by
    scientists from NOAA, NRL Monterey, the University of Rhode Island,
    and Florida State University (see HWRF in section 4.\_\_\_).

-   Other NCAR projects, past and present, in tropical cyclone R&D are
    described at <http://www.ucar.edu/research/storms/hurricanes.shtml>.

The University of Wisconsin-Cooperative Institute for Meteorological
Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS) is another academic R&D center active in
research on tropical cyclone observing and forecast methods. UW-CIMSS
developed the Advanced Dvorak Technique for estimating the position and
intensity of tropical cyclones from satellite-based infrared and
multispectral imagery. Another active research area for the UW-CIMSS
tropical cyclone team has been interpretation of imagery and data
products from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) instruments
that are flying on NOAA polar-orbiting satellites. The UW-CIMSS work on
tropical cyclone observations and data interpretation is funded by ONR,
NRL-Monterey, and NOAA/NESDIS.

CIRA is located at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado.
A particularly relevant recent project at CIRA has been development of
experimental tropical cyclone products from the AMSU instruments
(<http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/tropic/amsustrm.asp>). The Regional
and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB) of NOAA/NESDIS, which is
colocated with CIRA, conducts research on the use of satellite data to
improve analysis, forecasts, and warnings for regional and mesoscale
meteorological events. RAMMB emphasizes severe and tornadic storms,
tropical cyclones, and mesoscale aspects of mid-latitude cyclones,
including genesis, development, intensification, and prediction.
Development efforts focus on mesoscale forecast and nowcast products
based on multispectral satellite data integrated with other observations
such as Doppler radar and aircraft reconnaissance data and with NWP
models. Both UW-CIMSS and CIRA have developed automated methods to
combine information from multiple satellite platforms on wind
distribution in and around tropical cyclones.

There are many other academic institutions engaged in tropical cyclone
research. The numerous academic contributions to tropical cyclone
research are illustrated in the agenda (expanded view) of the American
Meteorological Society's 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical
Meteorology, which is available online at:

<http://ams.confex.com/ams/27Hurricanes/techprogram/programexpanded_339.htm>.

## 2.6 International Contributions to Tropical Cyclone Research

Tropical cyclones cause tremendous damage and contribute to loss of life
not just in the United States but around the world. Especially
vulnerable to destructive winds, severe floods, and high storm surges
are Japan, China, Taiwan, Korea, and Australia. Quite naturally, then,
these countries are heavily invested in research programs which address
the fundamental science and technology issues necessary to improve their
operational capabilities in predicting tropical cyclones.

### 2.6.1 Principal Tropical Cyclone R&D Centers around the World

The principal tropical research centers are organizationally within or
closely linked with the region's national operational centers:

-   Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)[^4]

    -   BOM Research Centre[^5]

-   Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA)[^6]

    -   Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI)[^7]

-   Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)[^8]

    -   Meteorological Research Institute[^9]

-   Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA)[^10]

-   Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB)[^11]

    -   National Taiwan University[^12]

The level of effort and details of the operational and R&D activities
differ among these centers but are beyond the scope of this document.
However, their activities share a common, consistent, and recognizable
theme. Together with the U.S. community of practice and often in
collaboration with U.S.-based partners, they are: working continually
toward improving the skill and value of numerical analysis and forecast
systems for tropical cyclone intensity, structure, and track (including
genesis). They conduct basic and applied research directed at:

-   Observing systems and their sensitivities, especially satellite data
    and adaptive sampling strategies

-   Data assimilation procedures and methodologies

-   Higher-resolution models

-   Increased fidelity of models with the dynamical and physical
    mechanisms underlying tropical cyclone genesis and life cycle
    evolution, whether as currently understood or as modified by results
    of further investigation

Another consistent theme is an increasing emphasis on ensemble
prediction systems and strategies, especially in the direction of
high-resolution regional model-based ensembles. Global model ensembles
now are available and used extensively, for example in providing case
dependent estimates of track envelopes and strike probabilities.
Probabilistic guidance based on advanced high-resolution regional models
is necessary to address adequately the forecast uncertainties in
critical storm attributes such as intensity, structure, and track.

Of special interest is [TH]{.underline}e [O]{.underline}bserving system
[R]{.underline}esearch and [P]{.underline}redictability
[EX]{.underline}periment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign.[^13]
Its principal focus is advancing "the understanding and predictability
of high-impact weather over Asia and the western Pacific with an
emphasis on tropical cyclones from genesis to decay/extratropical
transition." This truly international effort brings to bear the
collective assets and resources of several countries, including Japan,
China, Korea, and the United States. The field experiment phase is
scheduled for June to December 2008. Research activities leading to,
during, and after the field phase focus on: (1) assessing the relative
importance of various physical, dynamical, and scale-interaction
processes; (2) determining the importance of various components of
existing and special observing systems, including aircraft deployed
dropsondes and remote sensing and adaptive satellite observations; and
(3) developing and testing advanced data assimilation techniques and
high resolution models and ensemble strategies.

### 2.6.2 GEOSS and the Nation's Hurricane Forecast and Warning Program

Many of the observing systems used to monitor today's environment were
built for a single purpose. Many of the observations collected from them
connect into "stovepipe" networks that output the data in a variety of
formats and dissemination methods. The purpose of GEOSS, which has been
endorsed by nearly 60 governments and the European Commission, is to
achieve comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained observations of the
Earth system, in order to improve monitoring of the state of the Earth,
increase understanding of Earth processes, and enhance prediction of the
behavior of the Earth system. An integrated Earth observation and data
management system will enhance the Nation's capabilities to apply
resources more efficiently and effectively by reducing duplication,
improving coverage, and providing networks to disseminate information
when and where it is needed around the world. Through U.S. participation
in GEOSS, as outlined in the *Strategic Plan for the U.S. Integrated
Earth Observation System* (IEOS), the integration of existing and
planned observing systems, data, and quality control with efforts of
other nations will help guarantee the best quality and coverage of
Earth-observing data. Integrating these observing systems will enable
improved analysis and prediction of the state of the atmosphere, land,
streams, and oceans, which are the key to improving tropical cyclone
modeling and predictions and the Nation's tropical cyclone forecast and
warning service.

## 2.7 External Advisory and Advocacy Groups

In addition to the policy formulation and implementation entities within
the Federal structure, which were described in section 2.4, several
nongovernmental bodies representing the S&T communities in different
ways contribute to the tropical cyclone community of practice as policy
advisors and science-based advocates.

### 2.7.1 National Academy of Sciences and National Research Council

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is an honorific society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research
that is dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to
their use for the general welfare. Since 1863, the Nation\'s leaders
have often turned to the National Academy of Sciences and (since 1964)
the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) for advice on the scientific
and technological issues that frequently pervade policy decisions.[^14]
Most of the technical work and policy studies conducted under the aegis
of the National Academies are performed by their principal operating
agency, the National Research Council (NRC). The NAS, NAE, and NRC are
private nonprofit organizations that work outside the framework of
government, which ensures independent advice. The Board on Atmospheric
Sciences and Climate (BASC), which was established in 1982 by the NRC,
advances the understanding of the earth\'s atmosphere and climate, helps
apply this knowledge to benefit the public, and advises the Federal
government on issues within the Board\'s realm. Like the other boards
and standing entities within the NRC, the BASC draws on volunteer
participation from the relevant scientific and technical
disciplines---including but not limited to members of the NAS and
NAE---to form study committees whose peer-reviewed reports are the chief
mechanism by which the NRC advises the Government.

### 2.7.2 American Meteorological Society Policy Program

Founded in 1919, the American Meteorological Society promotes the
development and dissemination of information and education on the
atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic sciences and the
advancement of their professional applications. It has a membership of
more than 11,000 professionals, professors, students, and weather
enthusiasts. The mission of the American Meteorological Society Policy
Program (APP) is to strengthen the connection between public policy and
Earth system science and services by building policy research and by
creating opportunities for policymakers and scientists to engage and
exchange perspectives to foster better-informed policy decisions. The
APP focuses on five strategic goals:

-   Prepare scientists to contribute effectively to the policy process

-   Keep policymakers abreast of scientific advances and their relevance

-   Foster meaningful collaborations between scientists and policymakers

-   Develop the needed policy research

-   Share \[the AMS community's\] vision and results

The APP strives to address the following national priorities: public
health and safety, economic growth, the protection of the environment,
and national security. The APP studies both immediate and longer-term
policy issues relating to Earth system science and services. Its stated
core value is to be objective in examining sound science and policy
options, and it aims to bring together a diverse group of perspectives
and create real partnerships across sectors and disciplines. The scope
of issues addressed by the APP will include disciplines such as
economics, engineering, and social science, and its studies are expected
to foster research that will be inherently interdisciplinary. These
issues can be scientific, institutional, budgetary, economic, or social
in character and can be of regional, national, and international
interest.[^15]

## 2.8 Prior Documentation of Tropical Cyclone Operational and Research Needs

The development of this strategic research plan builds on previous work
to articulate tropical cyclone operational and research needs, starting
with the 1997 OFCM-sponsored *National Plan for Tropical Cyclone
Research and Reconnaissance (1997-2002)*. Following the publication of
that report, a great deal of work continued to identify operational and
research needs and to develop strategies to improve tropical cyclone
modeling and predictions. The sections below summarize many of these
important efforts.

> **The task of the JAG/TCR has been to synthesize the previous
> exceptional tropical cyclone work, update information as needed, and
> develop and coordinate a comprehensive interagency strategic research
> plan for tropical cyclones that links research priorities to
> operational needs. This document is the product of those efforts.**

### 2.8.1 Operational Needs of the Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Warning Centers

In June 2004, NOAA/OAR issued an Announcement of Federal Funding
Opportunity (AFFO) entitled "Joint Hurricane Testbed Opportunities for
Transfer of Research and Technology into Tropical Cyclone Analysis and
Forecast Operations." Included in this announcement was the TPC/NHC's
summary of 14 operational forecast improvement needs and four
high-priority areas identified by the NCEP/EMC for advancing NWP
modeling and forecasting capabilities.

A strategic planning session conducted at the 59^th^ IHC validated these
14 operational needs of the TPC/NHC. The DOD participants in this
session emphasized their top three priorities for military operations,
which are indicated in the bullets below. DOD's remaining needs were the
same as the 14 operational needs specified by the TPC/NHC.

-   Track forecast: to 5 days

-   Structure: radius of 50-kt and 35-kt wind radii

-   Wave heights; radius of 12 foot seas

The 14 TPC/NHC operational needs were updated in another NOAA/OAR AFFO
issued in June 2006. The updated 14 operational needs, along with DOD's
priority needs, thus represent the best available compilation and
prioritization of operational needs across the three U.S. centers:
TPC/NHC, JTWC, and CPHC. The operational needs are presented in section
4.1.

### 2.8.2 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conferences

As part of the annual review of the Nation\'s hurricane forecast and
warning capability at each IHC, the panel sessions, breakout sessions,
poster sessions, and/or workshops provide opportunities for appropriate
personnel to give status updates and identify potential needs and
challenges for operations and research. The following functional areas
have been routinely included in recent IHC agendas:

-   Tropical cyclone observations and reconnaissance

-   Tropical cyclone modeling and prediction

-   Impacts of tropical cyclones (e.g., winds, storm surge, heavy
    precipitation/inland flooding)

-   Tropical cyclone research; science and technology

-   Transitioning tropical cyclone research to operations

-   Tropical cyclone decision-making products and services

-   Tropical cyclone warning system and response

Documented needs and requirements brought before the IHC in these venues
have resulted in participant consensus on recommended actions. These
actions were subsequently addressed through the interagency
collaboration that the IHC facilitates. Significant improvements to the
Nation's hurricane forecast and warning service that have resulted from
this process include:

-   **Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Extended beyond 72 Hours.** The
    official forecast issued by the tropical cyclone forecast and
    warning centers was extended from a 72-hour (3-day) forecast to a
    120-hour (5-day) forecast. In 2001, the TPC/NHC extended its
    forecasts to include 96- and 120-hour forecasts but did not publicly
    distribute the forecasts. In 2003, the TPC/NHC began public
    distribution of the extended forecasts. The JTWC began experimental
    96-hour and 120-hour forecasts in 2000 and began to release these
    forecasts officially in May 2003.

-   **Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR)**. The original SFMR
    design involved a single nadir-viewing antenna and receiver capable
    of making measurements of radio emission from the sea surface at
    four selectable frequencies between 4.5 and 7.2 GHz. The stepping
    procedure enabled estimates of the surface wind speed in hurricanes
    by correcting for rain-induced effects in the measurements, thereby
    deriving a rain rate. The first measurements with this original SFMR
    were made from the NOAA WC-130 aircraft in Hurricane Allen in 1980.
    Agreement between surface (20 m) winds extrapolated from the 1500 m
    flight-level and the SFMR estimates for independent flight legs were
    within ±10 percent. Despite the success in Hurricane Allen, this
    instrument was never again flown into a hurricane. With support from
    the OFCM, a new horn antenna was developed in 1993. The new antenna,
    with a new set of six frequencies, was flown in Hurricane
    Olivia (1994) and retrieved high-quality wind estimates. Further
    funds were provided by the OFCM for an upgrade of the SFMR\'s
    receiver to increase calibration stability. Since 1980, the SFMR has
    flown on over 150 flights in 50 tropical cyclones. As will be
    highlighted in chapter 3, surface wind and rain rate data obtained
    by the SFMR are essential for real-time interpretation of rapidly
    changing events, especially near landfall. Airborne-derived
    observations, including the SFMR, will become increasingly
    assimilated into hurricane computer models, which will lead to
    improved forecasts.

-   **GPS Dropwindsonde.** The GPS dropwindsonde represents a major
    advance in both accuracy and resolution for atmospheric measurements
    over data-sparse oceanic areas of the globe. It provides wind
    velocities accurate to within 0.5 to2.0 m s^--1^ with a vertical
    resolution of approximately 5 m. One important advance over previous
    generations of sondes is the ability to measure surface (10 m)
    winds. The new dropwindsonde has already been used extensively in
    operational and research hurricane flights. It has been deployed
    from different aircraft including NOAA's WP-3Ds and new Gulfstream
    IV jet, as well as the Air Force WC-130s.

During the 59^th^ IHC in 2005, the JAG/TCR conducted a strategic
planning session to begin developing a framework for this strategic
research plan. Additionally, the OFCM planned a workshop during the
60^th^ IHC on "Tropical Cyclone Research: Priorities for the Next
Decade*,*" which included a review of a draft version of this document.
The workshop is discussed further in section 2.8.8.

### 2.8.3 USWRP Implementation Plan for Hurricane Landfall

The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) was established in 1994,
originally with nine Federal agencies participating. The three initial
foci of the program were landfalling hurricanes, heavy precipitation and
flooding, and the societal and economic impacts of severe weather.
Advice and direction from the scientific community has come through
prospectus development teams (PDTs): small groups of scientists and
technical experts who met in a workshop format to discuss issues and
report findings and recommendations. The fifth of these teams (PDT-5)
met in April--May 1996 "to identify and delineate emerging research
opportunities relevant to the prediction of local weather, flooding, and
ocean currents associated with landfalling U.S. hurricanes...and
tropical cyclones...in general" (Marks et al. 1998). In 1997, a workshop
with about 70 participants considered the operational hurricane forecast
needs and the socioeconomic impacts of hurricane landfall in
prioritizing observational and research opportunities. An implementation
plan was completed in 2002 that matched forecast needs with
observational and research opportunities.

The following hurricane program goals were extracted from the
implementation plan:

-   Reduce landfall track and intensity errors by 20 percent

-   Increase warning lead-time to 24 hours and beyond with 95 percent
    confidence without increasing the present 3 to 1 overwarning

-   Make skillful forecasts (compared to persistence) of gale- and
    hurricane-force wind radii out to 48 hours with 95 percent
    confidence

-   Extend quantitative precipitation forecasts to three days and
    improve skill of day‑three forecasts to improve inland flooding
    forecasts

A coordinated research program among four agencies (NOAA, NSF, ONR, and
NASA) was outlined in this plan. In each aspect, the state of the
science, technology, and prediction capability was indicated;
deficiencies vis-à-vis the above goals were identified, and the proposed
research programs were described.

Other areas of research identified for attention include the following:

-   Outer wind structure analysis and prediction

-   Inner wind structure (intensity) analysis and prediction

-   New conceptual models for explaining localized wind damage streaks

-   Exploitation of new observations from Doppler radars, portable
    Doppler radars and wind profilers, rapidly deployable automatic
    surface observing system, and deployable meteorological towers

-   Social-economic research focused on each aspect of the hurricane
    warning service---forecast preparation and communication,
    dissemination by emergency management, media, and private industry,
    and sociological aspects of public response to warning content,
    frequency, and consistency

### 2.8.4 HWRF Model Workshop

The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model will be a
high-resolution, next-generation atmosphere-ocean-land prediction
system, with operational implementation at NCEP/EMC planned for 2007. At
the initial HWRF workshop held in 2002, the participants discussed: (1)
the structure of the next-generation hurricane forecast model, (2) the
data and data assimilation techniques needed both to initialize this
model and to provide direct forecast support, and (3) the key
impediments that must be addressed by the research community to support
the operational implementation of the HWRF (Surgi et al. 2002). The
workshop consisted of two working group sessions: (1) observations to
address the hurricane initialization problem, geared toward the
upgrading of the Gulfstream IV aircraft; and (2) modeling physical
processes for a high resolution, coupled air/sea/land hurricane
prediction system (i.e., HWRF).

The workshop participants agreed upon the following statements on
research needs (Surgi et al. 2002):

-   Given the requirement for an accurate initial and predicted vortex
    structure to get the correct response to forcing, a high-resolution,
    nested, moving, two-way interactive numerical model is required.

-   The ultimate success of the hurricane landfall research model for
    intensity and precipitation will depend on how well the physical
    processes of the boundary layer and convection are predicted.

In the same report, the following were listed as the "showstopper" and
"most difficult tasks" in implementing such a high-resolution,
next-generation model:

-   Inadequate observations to define the initial conditions, especially
    for mesoscale features in the eyewall and rainbands including the
    microphysical species, and also including accurate and
    representative humidity measurements, and then the communication
    bandwidth for transmitting aircraft and satellite remotely sensed
    observations to the operational centers

-   Inadequate data assimilation techniques to incorporate the existing
    and future atmospheric observations on the mesoscale, also data
    assimilation for the ocean surface wave and subsurface in response
    to hurricane forcing, and inadequate linkages and researchers to
    work with the operational centers in data assimilation

-   Inadequate computer resources at the operational centers within the
    next 3-5 years to develop even the minimally acceptable model

-   Inadequate transition of numerical model results to viable and
    sufficiently accurate tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation
    guidance products to achieve forecast accuracy goals, especially
    considering track accuracy deficiencies, or a means to account for
    uncertainties in track, wind structure, and precipitation via a
    probabilistic approach

-   Inadequate coastal ocean and land surface modeling capability to
    account for modifications of wind structure and precipitation during
    and following hurricane landfall

### 2.8.5 NOAA/OAR Science and Technology Infusion Plan

In 2003, NOAA/NWS and NOAA/OAR outlined a plan to improve the infusion
of science and technology into operations to improve forecast accuracy
and other NWS products and services. This Science and Technology
Infusion Plan (STIP) defined strategies and capability improvements the
NWS will pursue to meet operational requirements and exploit scientific
opportunities. The STIP is linked to the NWS Services Improvement Plan
and other plans all working together toward NOAA and NWS strategic
goals. It outlines the goals and enabling science and technology for the
next 5--10 years, and a vision for 20 years in the future. In the area
of tropical cyclones, the STIP goals and capability improvement plans
focused on the 48-hour track and intensity forecast errors.

For the 48-hour track error, the target goals were \[not more than\] 128
nm by 2007, \[not more than\] 90 nm by 2012, and a vision of 85 nm by
2025. While the 2005 48-hour track error of \[not more than\] 99 nm is
better than the goal for 2007 by a considerable margin, it was believed
that these improvements would eventually asymptote near a theoretical
predictability limit around 85-90 nm.

The goals for the 48-hour intensity errors were \[not more than\] 15.4
kt by 2007, 13.9 kt by 2012, and a vision of 12 kt for 2025. While the
2005 48-hour intensity error of 14.6 kt is slightly better than the 2007
goal, the improvement is much less than that for track error.

The STIP identified the following forecast gaps that need to be
addressed to meet the goals:

-   Improved forecasting of rapidly changing storms

-   Understanding of model guidance uncertainty

-   More precise position of circulation center

-   Higher resolution storm wind data

For each gap, the STIP identified solutions to remedy the gap and the
anticipated impact of each solution, as shown in table 2-1.

Finally, the STIP listed the outstanding research and development needs:

-   Rapid intensity changing storms

-   Shear effects on track and intensity

-   Statistical "guidance-on-guidance" on model output

-   Improved data assimilation

-   Improved model physics (e.g., microphysics, air-sea fluxes)

-   Model physics sensitivities

-   Ensemble techniques

-   Adaptive observations/targeting

-   Predictability limits

**Table 2-1. Tropical Cyclone Gaps, Solutions, and Impacts (from NOAA
STIP)**

+--------------+------------------------------+-----------------------+
| **Gap**      | > **Solutions**              | **Impact**            |
+==============+==============================+=======================+
| More         | -   Targeted/adaptive        | -   About 12%         |
| Accurate     |     observations             |     Increase in       |
| Cyclone      |                              |     Numerical Model   |
| Track and    | -   NOAA Aircraft            |     Intensity         |
| Intensity    |     Instrumentation Upgrade  |     Forecast Skill    |
| Forecast     |                              |                       |
|              | -   Advanced data            | -   About 25%         |
|              |     assimilation of remote   |     Increase in       |
|              |     and in-situ atmosphere   |     Numerical Model   |
|              |     and ocean observations   |     Track Forecast    |
|              |                              |     Skill             |
|              | -   Aircraft and WSR-88D     |                       |
|              |     Doppler radar winds      |                       |
|              |                              |                       |
|              | -   Ensembles and HWRF model |                       |
|              |                              |                       |
|              | -   JHT Results              |                       |
+--------------+------------------------------+-----------------------+
| U            | -   Ensembles                | -   Reduced           |
| nderstanding |                              |     Overwarning of    |
| of Model     | -   Statistical Guidance     |     Coastal Hazards   |
| Guidance     |                              |                       |
| Uncertainty  | -   JHT Results              |                       |
|              |                              |                       |
|              | -   Training                 |                       |
+--------------+------------------------------+-----------------------+
| Improved     | -   JHT Results              | -   Saved             |
| Forecasting  |                              |     Lives/Enhanced    |
| of Rapidly   | -   Ocean Observations       |     Public Safety     |
| Changing     |                              |                       |
| Storms       | -   HWRF model (Improved     | -   Improved Track    |
|              |     Physics)                 |     and Intensity     |
|              |                              |     Forecasts         |
|              | -   GPS Dropsonde            |                       |
|              |                              | -   Improve Other     |
|              | -   SFMR                     |     Measures (Marine, |
|              |                              |     Quantitative      |
|              |                              |     Precipitation     |
|              |                              |     Forecast (QPF),   |
|              |                              |     Aviation)         |
+--------------+------------------------------+-----------------------+
| Higher       | -   Aircraft Doppler radar   | -   Improved          |
| Resolution   |     winds                    |     Intensity and     |
| Wind Data    |                              |     Track Forecasts   |
|              | -   Aircraft Instrumentation |                       |
|              |     Upgrades (e.g., SATCOM)  | -   Improved Storm    |
|              |                              |     Physics           |
|              | -   NEXRAD radar (Weather    |                       |
|              |     Surveillance Radar-1988  | -   Improved          |
|              |     Doppler, WSR-88) winds   |     Storm-Surge       |
|              |                              |     Forecast          |
|              |                              |                       |
|              |                              | -   Improved QPF      |
+--------------+------------------------------+-----------------------+
| More Precise | -   Satellite/Aircraft       | -   Reduced Track     |
| Position of  |     Remote Sensing           |     Error             |
| Circulation  |                              |                       |
| Center       |                              |                       |
+--------------+------------------------------+-----------------------+

### 2.8.6 Workshop on Air-Sea Interactions in Tropical Cyclones

In a continuation of previous successful modeling workshops,
NOAA/NWS/NCEP hosted a workshop on Air-Sea Interactions in Tropical
Cyclones in May 2005. A broad cross-section of researchers, numerical
modelers, operational forecasters, and managers of governmental and
university research programs participated in the workshop to address the
near- and far-term theoretical, observing, and modeling challenges in
developing the next-generation coupled ocean-hurricane prediction
system. Key recommendations from the workshop fell into four categories:

-   Air-sea parameterizations

-   Data archive

-   Sampling approach

-   Ocean model initializations and mixing parameterizations

The workshop report highlighted some of the challenges facing the
Nation's hurricane forecast and warning system:

> *Although significant progress has been made over the past several
> decades in advancing our Nation's hurricane track forecasting
> capability, scientific and forecast challenges remain that need to be
> addressed by the next-generation coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere
> hurricane prediction system, which includes understanding the role of
> the upper ocean on hurricane intensity through the air-sea interface
> and the atmospheric boundary layer. Given a spectrum of differing
> track scenarios such as erratically moving storms, storms that
> accelerate, and storms that stall, any improvements to the hurricane
> intensity forecast must not degrade track forecasting. In the case of
> a tropical cyclone interacting with the upper ocean, any subsequent
> intensity change is sensitive to the track forecasts. Notwithstanding,
> when the forecast track is fairly certain within 36 hours of landfall,
> understanding the ocean's role on the intensity change through air-sea
> interactions becomes of paramount importance as deep ribbons of high
> oceanic heat content water surround the US coastline. By providing
> better initial ocean conditions, and improving air-sea
> parameterization schemes in the coupled models, we may expect improved
> forecasts of the tropical cyclone surface wind field, the ensuing
> storm surges and the inland flooding\...*
>
> *To meet these forecast challenges, significant advances must
> concurrently occur in observations, data assimilation techniques, and
> model development for both the hurricane environment and the hurricane
> core to properly simulate the complex interactions between the
> physical and dynamical processes on different scales of motion that
> determine the hurricane motion, and to forecast intensity changes over
> the open and coastal ocean during hurricane landfall. The HWRF will be
> a high-resolution, coupled air/sea/land hurricane prediction model
> with advanced physics. Other planned advancements in the HWRF system
> include a local advanced atmospheric data assimilation capability to
> address the next generation initialization of the hurricane-core
> circulation. It is envisioned a similar process must occur for oceanic
> data assimilation on the basin scale, such as from the ongoing Global
> Ocean Data Assimilation Experiments (GODAE).*
>
> (Shay et al. 2005)

Additional information concerning this workshop can be found in section
4.5.3.4.

### 2.8.7 Previous Efforts in Social Sciences

The ultimate goal of tropical cyclone monitoring and forecasting is to
prevent loss of life and injuries and to reduce the Nation's
vulnerability to these potentially devastating storms. To this end,
warnings and forecast products must be received, understood, and used
effectively by a variety of end users including coastal managers,
emergency managers, government officials, and the general public. The
important role of the social sciences in this process is gaining
increased recognition, as indicated by several public and private
initiatives that inform the social science research areas highlighted in
section 5.3.

Impacts from Hurricane Isabel on the Nation's capital in September 2003
prompted an effort by NOAA and the Societal Impacts Program of NCAR to
form an ad hoc working group, the Hurricane Forecast Social and Economic
Working Group (HFSEWG), to identify social science research
capabilities, needs, and priorities for the tropical cyclone forecast
and warning system. In an effort to move toward a social science
research agenda, a number of white papers were prepared
(<http://swiki.ucar.edu/.sip/hurricane>), followed by a workshop in
Pomona, California, in February 2005. At the Pomona workshop, experts
from government, academia, and the private sector worked toward a
consensus social science research agenda for the tropical cyclone
forecast and warning system. This work continued with sessions at both
the 2004 and 2005 Natural Hazards Workshops, held in Boulder, Colorado.

The National Science Board's program, Toward a National Agenda for
Hurricane Science and Engineering, involved three workshops in 2006,
including a session on Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences. The
First Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research was held at the
2006 annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society, and a second
symposium is scheduled for 2007.

NOAA's Coastal Services Center has several initiatives related to the
social sciences, including the following websites:

-   "Applying Social Science to Coastal Management"
    (<http://ekman.csc.noaa.gov/socialscience_2/>)

-   "Social Science Methods for Marine Protected Areas"
    ([www.csc.noaa.gov/mpass](http://www.csc.noaa.gov/mpass))

The Center has also developed a wheel tool entitled "Understanding the
Human Dimension of Coastal Management Using Social Science." A current
social science project at this Center is examining how surge information
is communicated and understood by various user groups. Similarly, the
OFCM funded an exploratory research project that examined consumer
issues related to weather messages.

NCAR's Societal Impacts Program, funded by the USWRP, has a number of
initiatives including a WxSoc Weather and Weather Forecasting Newsgroup,
a Societal Aspects of Weather website at the University of
Colorado,[^16] and a Weather and Society program that provides workshops
to teach social scientists about weather.

The NAS/NRC has a long history of multidisciplinary research and
dissemination activities related to natural disasters, some of which
have addressed tropical storms specifically, with others focusing on
other hazards or cross-hazards issues. The social sciences have been an
important part of these multidisciplinary initiatives. NAS/NRC
initiatives in the disaster area involve studies carried out by
appointed committees, which produce reports, and by roundtables that
organize workshops for the purpose of knowledge exchange.

The appointed NRC Committee on Disaster Research in the Social Sciences
recently completed a comprehensive, multihazard report entitled, "Facing
Hazards and Disasters: Understanding Human Dimensions," which is
available from the National Academies Press.[^17] The study, funded by
the NSF, included an assessment of what is known from a social science
perspective about a variety of disaster agents, including their impacts
and society\'s efforts to mitigate, prepare for, and respond to them.

The Disasters Roundtable (DR) is the NRC's focal point for furthering
the exchange of knowledge and perspectives between hazards and disaster
researchers, policy makers and practitioners, and the general public.
Funded by such agencies as NSF, NASA, NOAA, USGS, and DHS, as well as
private sector organizations such as Pacific Gas and Electric, the
Public Entity Risk Institute, and PB Altech, the DR holds public
workshops three times a year that focus on timely topics related to
hazards and disasters selected by its multidisciplinary steering
committee, which includes social scientists.[^18] Tropical storms have
been among the workshop topics, such as the 2005 workshop entitled,
"Lessons Learned Between Hurricanes: From Hugo to Charley, Francis,
Ivan, and Jeanne," and a June, 2006, post-Katrina workshop that the DR
organized with two other NRC roundtables entitled, "Rebuilding Health,
Sustainability, and Disaster Preparedness in the Gulf Coast Region."
While all previous DR workshops were held in Washington, DC, because of
the access to important decision-makers, the Katrina workshop was held
in New Orleans. It is expected that the NRC will continue to give
attention to the need for both future studies and roundtable workshops
on tropical storms and related hazards.

These examples highlight a growing recognition of the important
contribution of social science research and applications to promoting
the goals of the national hurricane program and increasing the
effectiveness of the tropical storm forecast and warning system.

### 2.8.8 Concurrent Hurricane Projects/Studies

While the JAG/TCR was developing and coordinating this interagency
report, two other concurrent hurricane research projects/studies were
taking place. One of these was the NOAA Science Advisory Board (SAB)
Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group (HIRWG). The second was the
National Science Board's Task Force on Hurricane Science and Engineering
(HSE).

To ensure that these three efforts---NOAA/SAB, NSF/NSB, and OFCM's
JAG/TCR---were aware of, and able to learn from, each other, the OFCM
planned a workshop during the 60th IHC, held in Mobile, Alabama,
entitled Tropical Cyclone Research: Priorities for the Next Decade. The
workshop was moderated by Dr. Robert Serafin, NCAR Director Emeritus and
Chair of the BASC. Dr. Michael Crosby, Executive Officer for the
NSF/NSB, provided an update on the Task Force on HSE. Following Dr.
Crosby, Dr. John Snow, College of Geosciences, University of Oklahoma,
presented an update on activities of the NOAA/SAB HIRWG. The last item
in the research workshop was a review of an early draft of this
document. Dr. Frank Marks (NOAA/AOML/HRD) and Ms. Robbie Hood (NASA
Marshall Space Flight Center, Global Hydrology and Climate Center),
cochairs of OFCM's JAG/TCR, along with Dr. Naomi Surgi
(NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC), led this portion of the workshop. The workshop was
of great benefit to all three project groups, and other participants at
the workshop were able to hear about, and interact concerning, these
complementary ongoing efforts.

### 2.8.9 Results of the 60^th^ IHC

Significant items relating to (1) tropical cyclone research and (2) the
hurricane forecast and warning program resulted from the 60th IHC, held
in March 2006 in Mobile, Alabama.

#### Tropical Cyclone Research Priorities

The conclusions from the 60th IHC pertaining to tropical cyclone
research included:

-   Overarching tropical cyclone priorities established by the JAG/TCR
    that need further improvement (referenced in Chapter 5 of this
    report) were very good (i.e., intensity and structure; track; other
    landfalling impacts \[sea state/storm surge; precipitation and
    inland flooding\]; social science).

-   An end-to-end research program needs to include seasonal
    forecasting; climatology/variability of tropical cyclone intensity
    and frequency at annual, interannual, and longer time scales; causes
    of variability; stochastic components; and climate change influences
    (i.e., the above needed to be included in the priorities outlined in
    Chapter 5 of this report).

-   This research plan should advocate a National emphasis on mitigation
    planning to include event-specific actions, long-range planning, and
    impact simulations.

-   Results of social science research need to be an integral part of
    the hurricane forecast and warning program. The tropical cyclone
    community needs to seek opportunities to identify social science
    research priorities.

-   Empirical research should be encouraged and supported to develop and
    test modifications to current terminology used to define levels of
    hurricane threat (e.g., watch, warning, CAT 1-5, etc.).

#### Proposed New Model for Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Warning Communications

During the 60th IHC, an important workshop session was held entitled
"Getting the 'Right' Message to the Customer." One of the outcomes of
this workshop was a proposed new model for communications, which
reflects the divergent information needs of various users. Some of the
key points of the proposed communications model included:

-   The model should recognizes that outreach, education, and
    relationship building are necessary in order for the model to work
    optimally.

-   The model should focus first on understanding different receiver
    needs (e.g., mainstream receiver, underserved populations) and
    response mechanisms.

-   Receiver needs drive the message and specific channels of delivery
    (e.g., emergency management, local/state official, community-based
    organizations.

-   Community organizations are the primary channels of information for
    various receiver groups (e.g., the local chamber of commerce,
    churches, and civic organizations).

A general conclusion from this workshop was that the Nation's hurricane
warning program warranted a review, which should incorporate the
following actions:

-   NOAA, in conjunction with its partners, should work with diverse
    user groups to develop and test message format modifications.

-   Test messages should build upon current formats/products/procedures
    and change as necessary to optimize desired outcomes.

-   Two types of messages should be considered: technical and
    actionable.

-   NOAA's TPC/NHC should review its product timing cycle for better
    coordination with end users, especially for media news cycles.

-   The OFCM will organize meetings to bring together the appropriate
    Federal agencies to begin the process of reviewing and improving the
    National hurricane warning "system." The tasks include:

    -   A review of all elements of the full end-to-end "system,"
        incorporating concepts from the new proposed communications
        model that reflects the divergent information needs of various
        users

    -   Examination of important elements of the end-to-end review, such
        as protocols, responsibilities, key organizations (including
        community-based organizations \[e.g., YMCA, Chamber of Commerce,
        churches, civic organizations\]), and communications

### 2.8.10 Summary on Prior Documentation of Operational and Research Needs

The development of this strategic research plan builds on the previous
work described in this section to articulate tropical cyclone
operational needs and in formulating the research priorities outlined in
chapter 5. The results of the planned R&D will need to be transitioned
to operational NWP models to reap real benefits for the Nation. Gaining
knowledge and understanding of tropical cyclone intensity and structure
(wind radii), track, sea state and storm surge, and precipitation will
save lives, reduce property damage, reduce the costs to the military,
and significantly reduce the socioeconomic impacts of a hazard that has
so often had disastrous consequences for American citizens. In summary,
this plan articulates the interagency tropical cyclone research
priorities and recommendations to further improve the effectiveness of
the Nation's tropical cyclone forecast and warning service for the next
decade.

[^1]: "NOAA Legacy." <http://www.history.noaa.gov/noaa.html>

[^2]: National Science Foundation Strategic Plan, 2003-2008, September
    30, 2003

[^3]: http://sev.prnewswire.com/health-care-hospitals/20051207/DCW03808122005-1.html

[^4]: http://www.bom.gov.au/

[^5]: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/

[^6]: http://www.cma.gov.cn

[^7]: http://www.sti.org.cn/en/

[^8]: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html

[^9]: http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Welcome.html

[^10]: http://www.kma.go.kr/eng/index.jsp

[^11]: http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5e/index.htm

[^12]: http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/

[^13]: http://www.ucar.edu/na-thorpex/PARC.html

[^14]: <http://www.nasonline.org/site/PageServer?pagename=ABOUT_main_page>.
    The term "National Academies" embraces the National Academy of
    Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine,
    and National Research Council.

[^15]: http://www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy/documents/APPstrategicplan_000.pdf

[^16]: <http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/socasp/toc_img.html>

[^17]: <http://newton.nap.edu/catalog/11671.html>

[^18]: Summaries of the DR workshops are available through the NRC Web
    site at <http://dels.nas.edu/dr>.