Meeting Minutes for the

Weather Applications Group Workshop

May 18-19, 2004

The May 18-19, 2004 Weather Applications Workgroup (WAWG) Workshop was
hosted by NAV CANADA in Ottawa, Canada. Briefings and the Action Item
database are available as separate files to the minutes on the CDM
Weather Applications Workgroup web site @
<http://www.metronaviation.com/cdm/Workgroups/weather.html>.

Attendees:

+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| # | #      | **     | ***Organ   | ***P    | ***email***           |
| # | ###### | *First | ization*** | hone*** |                       |
| # |  *Last | N      |            |         |                       |
| # |  Name* | ame*** |            |         |                       |
| # |        |        |            |         |                       |
| # |        |        |            |         |                       |
| # |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
| * |        |        |            |         |                       |
| \ |        |        |            |         |                       |
| # |        |        |            |         |                       |
| * |        |        |            |         |                       |
+===+========+========+============+=========+=======================+
| 1 | Brown  | B      | NCAR/RAP   | 303-4   | <Bgb@ucar.edu>        |
| . |        | arbara |            | 97-8468 |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | Ch     | Daniel | NAV CANADA | 613.5   | D.CHRETIEN@ec.gc.ca   |
| . | retien |        |            | 63.5607 |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 3 | Evans  | Jim    | MIT/LL     | 781-9   | <Jime@ll.mit.edu>     |
| . |        |        |            | 81-7433 |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 4 | Fahey  | Tom    | NWA        | 612.7   | [Tom.fahey@nwa.com](  |
| . |        |        |            | 26.3256 | ../Tom.fahey@nwa.com) |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 5 | Fox    | Scott  | ATCSCC     | 703.9   | Scott.fox@faa.gov     |
| . |        |        |            | 04.4443 |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 6 | Golib  | Mike   | Volpe      | 617.4   | [golibersuch@vo       |
| . | ersuch |        |            | 94.2443 | lpe.dot.gov](../golib |
|   |        |        |            |         | ersuch@volpe.dot.gov) |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 7 | Hub    | Mark   | Mitre /    | 703.8   | <mwhuber@mitre.org>   |
| . | erdeau |        | CAASD      | 33.5906 |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 8 | J      | Fred   | NWS/AWC    | 816-5   | [Fred.j               |
| . | ohnson |        |            | 84-7204 | ohnson@noaa.gov](../F |
|   |        |        |            |         | red.johnson@noaa.gov) |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 9 | Kot    | Martin | AC JAZZ    | 902.8   | Martin                |
| . | hbauer |        |            | 73.5975 | .kothbauer@flyjazz.ca |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Lan    | Joanne | NAV CANADA | 613.5   | [lancajo@NAV          |
| 0 | caster |        |            | 63.5607 | CANADA.ca](mailto:    |
| . |        |        |            |         | lancajo@navcanada.ca) |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Mac    | Ken    | MSC        | 613.9   | K                     |
| 1 | donald |        |            | 92.3917 | en.macdonald@ec.gc.ca |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | M      | Je     | NOAA/FSL   | 303-4   | Jennif                |
| 2 | ahoney | nnifer |            | 97-6514 | er.<Mahoney@noaa.gov> |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | M      | Chuck  | NAV CANADA | 613.2   | Mccraig@NAV CANADA.ca |
| 3 | cCraig |        |            | 48.4087 |                       |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | M      | Luc    | MSC/CMAC-E | 514.4   | Luc.mercier@ec.gc.ca  |
| 4 | ercier |        |            | 96.5225 |                       |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Meyer  | Darin  | MIT        | 407.8   | <darinm@ll.mit.edu>   |
| 5 |        |        | Lincoln    | 55.3593 |                       |
| . |        |        | Lab        |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Mullen | Ken    | TAC2       | 202-3   | <k                    |
| 6 |        |        |            | 14-1412 | en.mullen@auatac.com> |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | M      | S      | CNAC       | 703-3   | <Munchaks@can.org>    |
| 7 | unchak | tephen |            | 26-3806 |                       |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Rod    | Dave   | ATCSCC     | 703.9   | <dav                  |
| 8 | enhuis |        |            | 25.3120 | id.rodenhuis@faa.gov> |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 1 | Rovito | Dino   | ARS-100    | 202-3   | [Di                   |
| 9 |        |        |            | 85-7718 | no.rovito@faa.gov](.. |
| . |        |        |            |         | /Dino.rovito@faa.gov) |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | Sims   | Danny  | ATO-R      | 202-3   | [                     |
| 0 |        |        |            | 85-8932 | danny.sims@faa.gov](. |
| . |        |        |            |         | ./danny.sims@faa.gov) |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | St     | Joanne | MSC        | 819.9   | Joa                   |
| 1 | -Coeur |        |            | 97.4976 | nne.st-coeur@ec.gc.ca |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | T      | Duane  | FAA/ATCSCC | 703.3   | [Duane.               |
| 2 | orbert |        |            | 26.3940 | torbert@faa.gov](../D |
| . |        |        |            |         | uane.torbert@faa.gov) |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | Wilson | Ian    | ERAU ATM   | 386.2   | [Ia                   |
| 3 |        |        | LAB        | 26.7565 | n.wilson@erau.edu](.. |
| . |        |        |            |         | /Ian.wilson@erau.edu) |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+
| 2 | Wood   | Bryan  | ATA-40     | 703-3   | <Br                   |
| 4 |        |        |            | 26-3785 | yan.ctr.wood@faa.gov> |
| . |        |        |            |         |                       |
|   |        |        |            |         |                       |
+---+--------+--------+------------+---------+-----------------------+

**Agenda:**

Version: (V4.0, 7 May 2004)

**CDM Weather Applications Work Group (WAWG) #15: 2^nd^ Quarter
meeting**

**18 May 1PM-6PM & 19 May 8AM-12:30PM**

Meeting location: The Ottawa Marriott Hotel, 100 Kent Street, Ottawa,
Canada

Meeting rooms: May 18, 2004 - Wellington Room May 19, 2004 - Cartier III

Audio-Visual Equipment: a computer and projector will be provided by
host Joanne Lancaster.

> **Note: Joanne's operating system does not support those USB
> \'jump-drives\' (those little memory sticks).** Options: send Joanne
> the presentations ahead of time and I will load them onto my PC or
> bring the presentations with you on a CD or diskette.

All planning to attend pls confirm via e-mail as soon as possible. Send
to Joanne Lancaster

\< Lancajo@NAV CANADA.ca \>.

All members are encouraged to submit agenda item requests and to prepare
position papers on issues of interest relating to application of weather
info to traffic flow management.

[Anyone for a jog ???]{.underline}

Tuesday, May 18^th^ at 6 PM: Joanne Lancaster has offered to host a
run/jog: "relaxed, social pace just after our meeting on Tuesday (before
dinner) to do some sight-seeing from a different perspective.

The river and the canal are both easily accessed from your hotel and
make for very scenic runs. So, I have an easy 8-10K route in mind that
would take us along the Ottawa River to the Rideau Canal, along the
canal via the tulip-route, and eventually back downtown to your hotel.
The route can always be lengthened/shortened as desired - lots of
options."

# **Tuesday, May 18, 2004 - Wellington Room**

1P -- 1:20P 1. Introduction & Welcome by Canadian Hosts:

> Ms. Kathy Fox, Vice President of Operations, NAV CANADA
>
> Mr. John Footit, Manager, Aviation Weather Services, NAV CANADA
>
> Joanne Lancaster, Aviation Meteorologist, NAV CANADA

1:20P -- 1:30P 2. Finalize Agenda for 18^th^ & 19th

> Responsible: All attendees. Co-Chairs Facilitate.

1:30P -- 2:15P 3. Review Action items

> Responsible: All attendees. Ken Mullen facilitate.

2:15P - 3:15P 4. Intuitive Graphics

Goal: Finalization for presentation to CDM Leadership 08 June

> Responsible: Danny Sims

Next Step: Identification of Subgroup on Probabilistic CCFP formats

**3:15P - 3:30P .............................. ( BREAK )
....................................................**

3:30P - 5:30P

5.  Report on Training

> Responsible: Scott Fox, National Training Branch, ATCSCC
>
> Duane Torbert, WxUnit, ATCSCC
>
> 6\. Reports from Pending Action Items
>
> \- AWC: Streamline collaboration btwn AWC & CWSU\'s/Airlines w/
> automation
>
> Responsible: Clinton Wallace

\- AWC: Max Tops fcsting capability

Responsible: Fred Johnson

\- Impact of Canada not participating in CCFP March & Oct

> \- ATCSCC will report on impact-from subjective perspective.
> Responsible: D.Torbert

\- NAV Canada will report from quantitative perspective.
Responsible:t.b.d. by J.Lancaster

\- AWC: Planning efforts for CCFP Probabilistic Fcsting Tools:

> Responsible: Fred Johnson, Subgroup Lead
>
> Team Members : Barb Brown, Chris Herbster,
>
> Jennifer Mahoney, Darin Meyer, Fred Moser,
>
> Clinton Wallace, & Ian Wilson
>
> \- Presentations:
>
> \- Probabilistic Fcst Tool Examples

\- Definition of the Probability Variable to be forecasted

**5:30P -- 6PM Wrap up
............................................................**

6PM-7:30PM Anyone for a Jog ???

## **Wednesday, May 19, 2004 - Cartier III Room**

8AM -- 8:30A 1. Review

> -Review resolved issues from Day 1
>
> -Review parking lot issues from Day 1
>
> Responsible: All; Facilitators: K.Mullen, T.Fahey & D.Rodenhuis

8:30 -- 9:00A 2. Applications of the CCFP Forecast

> -A Model for En Route Flight Deviations for Convective Storms
>
> Jim Evans, MIT/Lincoln Labs
>
> -Evaluation of Traffic Strategies-Response to Convect. Storms
>
> Bryan Wood, CNAC, Airspace Laboratory

9:00A -- 10:00A 3. 2005 (Next Year) CCFP prep

> -Training: Cooperation btwn US & Canada
>
> -Format Changes
>
> -Reporting
>
> -Other Issues

**10A - 10:15A .,.................... (BREAK)
.....................................**

10:15A -- 10:45A 4. Canada: Report on Turbulence Forecasting for Traffic
Flow Mngmnt

Responsible: t. b. d. by Joanne Lancaster

10:45A -- 11:15 5. 5. Verification

> -Status report on progress
>
> Responsible: t. b. d. by Jennifer Mahoney
>
> -Status report on resources for measuring Operational Impact of the
> CCFP

Responsible: t. b. d. by T.Fahey & D.Rodenhuis

11:15A -- 11:45A 6. New Requested Tasks by CDM Leadership

> -Priority #1: TSD Weather image display goodness
>
> -Priority #1.a. Operational Wx Image
>
> -Priority #1.b. Post Analysis
>
> -Priority #2: DSR Weather Display goodness
>
> -Priority #3: Recommend Weather inputs for Integrated Analysis Tool

11:45A -- 12:15A 7. Other issues / Member position papers / Review
unresolved issues

### 12:30P 8. Wrap up .......................................

**Day 1 Meeting Notes:**

**1. Introduction & Welcome by Canadian Hosts:**

Joanne Lancaster, Aviation Meteorologist, NAV CANADA welcomed all
participants and introduced Ms. Fox and Mr. Footit.

Ms. Kathy Fox, Vice President of Operations, NAV CANADA welcomed
participants. She stated that she has a Commercial Pilot background and
understand the importance of aviation weather forecasting. She
recognizes the importance of collaboration and the positive impact
collaboration has on what we do. She also recognized the importance of
our products and reaffirmed NAV CANADA's commitment to our work.

Mr. John Footit, Manager, Aviation Weather Services, NAV CANADA also
welcomed participants. He noted that in the early days of CDM, the
business case had to be made to all concerned to participate in CDM.
Now, they come to CDM looking for help. He expressed this thanks for the
work of this group and the efforts of CDM.

**2. Finalize Agenda for 18^th^ & 19^th^:**

The participants, lead by the Co-chairs reviewed the proposed agenda. No
changes.

**3. Review Action items:**

Ken Mullen, Northrop Grumman/TAC2, facilitated the review of the open
WAWG actions. The updated status of all actions was noted and is
included in the WAWG Action Item database. Many actions were closed.
Action #14 was determined to be an integration issue and was moved to
the parking lot and will be forwarded to the ICE-FM Workgroup.

**New Action:**

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  1    Set up a telcon within 2 week to start the process of Mark, Danny,
       documenting an OpsConcept for the integration of      Tom, Dave,
       short-term and long-term weather products. (Multiple  Barb, Jim
       previous action closed/superseded by this action).    
       Mark to include actionees from the old actions to     
       participate in the telcon and include WAWG leads,     
       Danny Sims, Jim Evans, Barbara Brown, others as       
       required. Output will be coordinated with CDM         
       Leadership for direction.                             

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

**4. Intuitive Graphics:**

Goal: Finalization for presentation to CDM Leadership 08 June

Presentation: ccfp_intuitive_graphics_May04.ppt

Danny Sims, ATO-R presented this update. CCFP feedback was received from
more than 75 users.

Main feedback comments:

-   Get ride of the Text Box

-   Graphically display coverage/confidence/tops

Danny reviewed the CCFP Intuitive Graphics display options under
consideration. Human Factors reviews conducted by Ohio State and the FAA
Tech Center. Conclusion was that a more realistic display/presentation
is needed. The Tech Center developed realistic displays on the TSD.
Reviewed the new TSD options and did not like the initial results, but
newer presentations look promising. Updated graphics are due from the
Tech Center on May 21 for review. Color equates to Confidence in the new
format and fill is used for Coverage. High level requirements are being
coordinated with ETMS.

Next steps:

-   Review the next version of the graphics and provide feedback

-   Present to CDM Leadership

-   Detailed requirements are due July 2, 2004

**Action:**

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  2    Explode to the WAWG the CCFP Intuitive Graphics       Danny Sims
       requirements.                                         

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

Recommended that CWSUs be included in the review process (Mike Szkil is
the POC)

Mike Golibersuch, Volpe said no impact is anticipated by the Spring 2005
Hub freeze.

Issues:

-   I&I is needed. The TFM User Team (TUT) needs to be involved if CDM
    Leadership recommends going forward with this proposal.

-   We need to start planning and working towards Probabilistic CCFP
    after the change to Intuitive Graphics is implemented.

-   ETMS deployment schedule is planned for April 2005, but CCFP
    production is usually started in March. This topic generated lots of
    questions, comments, and discussion as highlighted below:

    -   How do we role out the new product?

    -   Can ETMS be deployed sooner?

    -   Do we start with the old product and cutover when ETMS is
        deployed?

    -   We should deploy on AWC web and TSD at the same time.

    -   Can users just use the web product until ETMS is deployed?

    -   Should we turn off the ETMS CCFP displayed on the TSD until ETMS
        is deployed to eliminate the confusion of having 2 products?

    -   Is this change supported by benefits? (Trying to break the
        paradigm of users routing around a box).

As a result of the discussion, the following 2 options will be explored;

1.  Move the Spring ETMS deployment up to March 2005

2.  Turn display of CCFP on TSD off until ETMS is deployed in April 2005

**Actions:**

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  3    Discuss with Volpe the feasibility of implementing    Mike
       intuitive graphics for March 1, 2005                  Golibersuch

  4    Discuss with Barry Davis (ATO-R) the feasibility of   Danny Sims
       implementing intuitive graphics for March 1, 2005     

  5    Discuss with Centers the impact of no CCFP on the TSD Duane Torbert
       for the initial month or so of the season.            

  6    Provide feedback if AWC can support dual operations   Fred Johnson
       for the initial CCFP deployment (old plus the new     
       intuitive format)                                     

  7    Develop training timeline strategy for training       Scott Fox
       intuitive graphics.                                   

  8    Discuss with Unions/TUT what are the workable         Dave
       solutions for implementing intuitive graphics in      Rodenhuis
       spring 2005.                                          
  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

The group came to consensus on the proposed Intuitive Graphic format.

Testing Intuitive Graphics discussion moved to Parking Lot for Day 2.

Other related Discussion:

Scott Fox and Duane Torbert, ATCSCC did not have a big issue with
cutting over to the new format mid-season. This would eliminate the ETMS
coordination problem. Mid-season change has been done in the past
(OPSNET changes). Training will be completed in the off-season and a
refresher before cut-over.

Growth and Decay information is somewhat related to forecaster skill. It
is very hard to accurately forecast Growth/Decay 6 hours in the future.

Jennifer Mahoney, FSL said it's important to keep Confidence and
Coverage separated for training.

Lots of discussion about transitioning to 2 Confidence levels (Low and
Medium/High combined). AWC forecasters would like to remove Low
Confidence from the forecast. It was noted that the operational impact
of Low/Medium/High varies greatly by region. Also discussed using levels
1, 2, 3 for Confidence. But, determined that we did not want to confuse
or mix terms with Radar Reflectivity.

**Group agreed to a final Confidence recommendation as follows:**

-   Yellow equates to 25-49% Confidence

-   Orange equates to 50% and above Confidence

5.  **Report on Training:**

Presentation: CCFP Training Slide Show 3.1.ppt

Scott Fox, National Training Branch, ATCSCC presented this update. Scott
said Steve Bell is the new Training Manager and Steve is committed to
bringing training to the forefront. The focus will be on weather
products and utilize; the CCFP 2004 User Guide, Reference Guide, and the
PowerPoint presentation. A training disk is available.

The Training web site is @ http://www.atcscc.faa.gov. They are working
on classroom and web based training. He noted that users' understanding
of CCFP is improving. "Trigger points" are being used for Low Confidence
areas as an improvement from the old view of a "no fly zone".

Duane Torbert, WxUnit, ATCSCC presented the 2004 Training briefing and
reviewed the changes they are planning. Joanne Lancaster, NAV CANADA
thanked the ATCSCC Training Department for the excellent training they
provided to NAV CANADA.

Tom Fahey, NWA provided the industry training update. Tom said training
information was distributed via the exploder so users could integrate
the information into their own training. Tom did not have any feedback
on how the airlines actually utilized the information provided.

Action:

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  9    Add to the 2005 User Needs document the               WAWG Leads/
       characterization of convection (slide 17 from         Ken Mullen
       training presentation)                                

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

**6. Reports from Pending Action Items:**

**a) AWC: Streamline collaboration between AWC & CWSU\'s/Airlines w/
automation**

Fred Johnson, AWC and Dave Rodenhuis, ATCSCC lead this discussion. CWSU
are being consolidated from 20 to something less. Reduction in
face-to-face interaction, but will increased utilization of the web for
collaboration (web conferencing). Trails being conducted this summer
using WSI software. They are investigating using web conferencing for
CCFP collaboration as well.

Problem: On heavy weather days, chat is not efficient.

**b) AWC: Max Tops forecasting capability**

Fred Johnson presented this update on forecasting tops. They are
evaluating echo and cloud tops.

Issues:

-   Echo tops are in 5000 ft increments

-   Cloud tops are also needed

-   The update rate is only 15 minutes

-   Discrepancies on how data is reported

Also reviewed convective SIGMET slides.

**c) Impact of Canada not participating in CCFP March & Oct**

\- ATCSCC will report on impact-from subjective perspective.

Duane Torbert provided this report. The CCFP is evaluated everyday. No
negative comments about the lack of Canadian participation in March and
no apparent negative impact to operations. He also noted that March is
mostly an inactive convective weather month in Canada and there is
probably no need for a Canadian CCFP in March. Also, Canada used climate
studies to support the decision not to participate in the March/October
CCFP. The Action Item on this topic will stay open for ATCSCC and NAV
CANADA to revisit this in the Fall.

\- NAV Canada will report from quantitative perspective.

Presentation: CCFP HIRA Overview.ppt

Joanne Lancaster reported that a risk assessment was done by NAV CANADA
before they decided not to participate in CCFP production in
March/October. They plan to revisit the risk assessment and review
impact with users after this season and for next year.

**d) AWC: Planning efforts for CCFP Probabilistic Forecasting Tools:**

Probabilistic Forecast Tool Examples

Definition of the Probability Variable to be forecasted

Presentation: FJohnson_CDMMay04.ppt & BGB_WAWG_May04.ppt

Fred Johnson Led the discussion for the Probabilistic-CCFP team.
Probabilistic CCFP needs to be defined (this is not a trivial matter).
The best approach will be to test multiple definitions.

Suggested criteria:

-   Coverage

-   Echo Tops

Coverage/Tops Probabilities:

-   Above 24 to 49% = Low

-   Above 49 - 74% = Medium

-   Above 74% = High

Issues:

-   How to respond to Probabilistic weather products/forecasts

-   Calibration issues will need to be resolved

-   How to assess objectives

-   How to model probabilities

-   How to deal with regional differences in responses to convective
    weather

Recommendation:

-   Develop a team to determine what Probabilistic CCFP should look
    like.

-   End users need to determine what the TFM Product should be.

Next Steps:

-   Initial evaluation is planned for July 2004

-   Limited production test is planned for October 2004

-   Verifying Probabilistic forecasts

-   Evaluate for future TFM usage

Progress on this has been slow. The team will continue to provide
feedback at future meetings. One of the challenges is determining how to
apply probabilistic weather to TFM. The end view is not a weather box on
an overlay, but the probability that a flight would encounter weather
that is associated with each flight. Getting user feedback on prototypes
will be key for a successful development and implementation. Tom
proposed inviting users to the next meeting so everyone will know where
we are heading.

Issue: Travel funds are needed to get the team together.

Moved remaining discussion to the Parking Lot to continue on day 2.

**End of Day 1**

**Day 2 Meeting Notes:**

**1. Review:**

**Parking Lot Issues from Day 1:**

-   Testing Intuitive Graphics

-   Continue Probabilistic discussion

**Next Meeting:**

The next meeting will be held at Lincoln Labs in Washington, DC on
August 17-18 (Tue/Wed). Darin will explode Hotel and location
information to the WAWG. National Airport (DCA) is the closest airport.
Darin suggested booking early because Washington is very busy this year.
Darin suggested the Sheraton Four Points as one potential place to stay.
Government rate \$150, some deals are as low as \$105. The meeting will
start Tuesday at 8:00 and run until noon on Wednesday.

The WAWG has committed to meeting concurrent with the 4^th^ quarter CDM
meeting (Details need to be worked).

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) offered to host a future
meeting in Daytona Beach, FL.

Actions:

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  10   By the next telcon (June 25) plan meeting schedule    WAWG Leads/
       through 2005.                                         Danny Sims

  11   Set up WAWG team telcon for June 25 \@1:00 Eastern    WAWG Leads

  12   Environment Canada to provide a lead to the CCFP      Luc Mercier
       team.                                                 
  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

**Testing Intuitive Graphics:**

It was recommended that CCFP Intuitive Graphics be tried/tested some
places early. The ATCSCC and one Center were suggested.

**Action:**

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  13   Check to see if intuitive graphics could be produced  Mike
       on the CCSD test string by the end of this season.    Golibersuch

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

Intuitive Graphics Benefits:

-   A qualitative argument of what we are trying to achieve with
    Intuitive Graphics needs to be written.

-   We are attempting to respond to user feedback to improve the
    product.

-   Someone mentioned that the cost of a benefits study for this change
    may exceed the cost of the enhancement.

-   It was suggested that more of a "change justification" is what is
    needed versus a benefits study.

**Item for the Parking Lot:** Develop a qualitative summary of the
justification for this change.

The WAWG needs to make a decision by our next telcon if we want ERAU to
do a benefits study.

The WAWG needs to develop a strategy to transition from the current CCFP
format, to Intuitive and then to Probabilistic products.

**Action:**

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  14   Tom will get a group together to brainstorm on the    Tom Lead and
       transitions from current CCFP to intuitive and then   others TBD
       to probabilistic CCFP. Need to address building block 
       approach in the justification for this change.        

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

**Continuation of Day 1 Probabilistic Discussion:**

Assumptions:

-   The User Needs document will be the starting point for CCFP
    criteria.

-   The output will be the ASCII message

-   We are not creating a new probabilistic scheme to drive CCFP

Challenge- To avoid "boxes", but provide operational input so users can
select routes based on probability. This could end up being a background
process that is used to determine the risk for a particular route.

**2. Applications of the CCFP Forecast:**

**- A Model for En Route Flight Deviations for Convective Storms**

Presentation: Evans presentations at CDM wxapp may 2004.pdf

Jim Evans, MIT/Lincoln Labs presented this briefing and lead the
discussion (See the presentation for details of the concept and
technical approach). The study characterizes route blockage as a
function of weather coverage, echo tops, and storm type. The
presentation generated lots of discussion on sectors versus CCFP scale.
Jim said he would like to build a model for every Sector in the U.S. He
noted that all Sectors are uniquely impacted by weather.

Summary of findings:

-   Less than 25% geographic (level 3) coverage of a Sector usually
    blocks all routes

-   Echo Tops are important factors in some cases

-   Route blockage varies by Sector and storm type

Jim is writing a report for NASA on this study. He also mentioned that
more time needs to be allocated in WAWG agendas to discuss topics in
greater detail. Jim is seeking funding to extend the study to the rest
of CIWS domain.

Jim is also just starting a study for NASA to develop a model to relate
Jet Route Availability to weather parameters for operational use of
deterministic forecasts.

**- Evaluation of Traffic Strategies-Response to Convective Storms**

Presentation: Airspace Lab Evaluation Tactics.ppt

Bryan Wood led this discussion on the findings from the 2003 CCFP survey
results.

Findings from interviewed NTMOs:

-   CCFP is the starting point in the SPT

-   Confidence is an important factor in CCFP interpretation

-   Importance of CCFP parameters is a function of location and time

-   Tops information is used inconsistently

-   Low confidence/low coverage CCFP polygon in Western Region is
    insignificant

-   NTMO's are thinking about Risk!

The use of a "trigger" to start reroutes is being utilized more this
season. Centers that are upstream from the storm are providing feedback
when capacity starts to decrease.

Basic Strategies:

-   Reroute transcons and distribute among routes on take-off.

-   Let transcons fly an deal with weather using short hauls.

-   Utilize "Bingo points" (deviate prior to weather encounter)

-   Transcon options

Using the Bingo points strategy creates a lot of work for the
Controllers, they would rather reroute while the flights are still on
the ground.

A model prototype Post Analysis Simulation Tool (PAST) is being built to
evaluate all the strategies. The goal is to develop a way to relate
forecasts to Center capacity. The tool would be for strategic use for
planning with uncertainty.

Highlights/issues:

-   Unused capacity needs to be added to the model.

-   Need to understand the impact to other Sectors when flights are
    diverted. Referenced the Mitre study findings that cost/impact can
    be large on other Sectors when it appears it was a cost free
    reroute.

-   The model does include impact to other Centers when flights are
    rerouted.

-   Need to include the impact to short hauls in the model.

-   Looking to validate model with historical data.

-   Impact to Sectors when weather is present

**Actions:**

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  15   Finalize and distribute internal report on responses  Bryan Wood
       to convection to the WAWG.                            

  16   Include more time for discussion in the next WAWG     WAWG Leads
       meeting agenda.                                       
  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

**3. 2005 (Next Year) CCFP preparation:**

The WAWG recognizes the need to make changes for next year in the Fall,
not the Spring. The goal is to complete 2005 User Needs changes
including format and training by the 4^th^ quarter meeting. Please
provide feedback so we can finalize our plans on the June telcon.

Efforts for 2005 CCFP:

-   Identify days for case study and report on specific days

    -   What went good/bad and what is the difference

-   Update the User Needs document

-   Develop work plans for 2005 for support/research organizations and
    ensure we have the resources to implement 2005 requirements.

**Action:**

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  17   Need 2005 work plans from organizations supporting    Danny Sims
       WAWG in support of funding efforts. Danny to          
       distribute what is required from support              
       organizations to support 2005 plans and ensure we     
       have the resources to implement 2005 plans.           

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

**4. Canada: Report on Turbulence Forecasting for Traffic Flow
Management:**

Presentation: NC Turbulence Forecast Update May 2004.ppt

Joanne Lancaster presented this briefing. The NAV CANADA turbulence
forecast was developed to support planning and the implementation of
Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum (RVSM) in Southern Domestic airspace
(SDRVSM). The turbulence forecast charts are required by the Area
Control Centres (ACCs) that will have the responsibility for SDRVSM
airspace. The forecast covers North Atlantic and Polar routes.

-   The SDRVSM turbulence forecast will be amalgamated with the NDRVSM
    (polar) chart to create one large chart for Domestic Airspace.

-   Once MSC transition of forecast products is complete they may
    investigate merging North Atlantic chart.

-   The Forecast will be available to specialists (NOC and ACC's) on the
    Aviation Weather Web Site (AWWS) @ flightplanning.navcanada.ca
    starting September 1, 2004

-   The forecast is not automated but is developed by humans.

-   NAV CANADA is open to discussions on modifications and would like to
    see it integrated with other products or help with the development
    of a common product.

The WAWG is considering taking this on as a work item and will discuss
this in more detail in the future (possibly on the June telcon). Tom
Fahey supports the WAWG taking this on. Resource issues need to be
worked. ATCSCC participants stated that they do not intend to suspend
RVSM for turbulence. However, information regarding turbulence is still
important for the save routing of flights and would be used for
advisories only. Dave will prepare a white paper with support from Jim
and Joanne. The white paper will also support work plan development.

**Action:**

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  18   ATCSCC to prepare a U.S. proposal for dealing with    Dave
       turbulence (clear-air and convection related). Dave   Rodenhuis,
       will draft a white paper for the June telcon.         Jim and
                                                             Joanne will
                                                             also provide
                                                             input.

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

**5. Verification:**

Tom Fahey noted that resources are needed to measure the operational
impact of CCFP. CDM has an action to work this issue and Tom will check
with them for an update.

**-Status report on progress**

Presentation: WAWG-pres-Canada-04.ppt

Jennifer Mahoney presented this report. A real time verification system
is being developed. The Web Address for Real Time Verification System
(RTVS) is @ <http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/>. Contact Jennifer if
training is needed on the use of the tool. They are evaluating the old
versus the new verification approach. Tops information still needs to be
included in the verification.

The group discussed the approach for verifying Red areas of convection
inside of Yellow areas. The group agreed to include Yellow areas or
greater in the verification. Also, additional filtering is needed to
eliminate areas less than 3000 sq. miles (members recommended being
cautious when filtering).

Issues:

-   Verification of the Canadian CCFP

    -   MSC needs to understand what is required for them to set up
        there own verification system.

-   Funding

    -   No funds yet for FY04

    -   No support for reports, object-oriented verification, and
        measure of convective constrained area

    -   Can this be put into the Ops budget versus the Research budget?

        -   This work support ATO's push for performance measurement.

**-Status report on resources for measuring Operational Impact of the
CCFP**

Tom Fahey and Dave Rodenhuis provided this report.

Dave requested feedback from the WAWG to support the groups desire to
support Verification. Jennifer and Barbara will work on a description of
the need for Verification. Danny will take the lead on documenting the
need to fund Verification. Danny and Dave will work on a strongly worded
statement in support of funding Verification for WAWG consensus at the
next meeting/telcon. The statement will then be included in the minutes
and Tom will send it to CDM Leadership for action.

It was noted that the point of Verification is to make forecasts more
operationally useful!

**Action:**

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  19   Dave and Danny to prepare a strongly worked statement Dave
       in support of Verification funding for the WAWG to    Rodenhuis,
       vote on/get consensus on.                             Danny Sims

  20   Present current funding periodically at WAWG          Danny Sims
       meetings. Danny will provide status at the next       
       meeting and TBD after that.                           
  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

**6. New Requested Tasks by CDM Leadership:**

**-Priority #1: TSD Weather image display goodness**

Darin Meyer lead this discussion. The WAWG needs to determine if what is
currently displayed on the TSD, what we should be displaying?

Some products for consideration:

-   Current Composite

-   VIL

-   Echo Tops

-   Base Reflectivity

-   Combineing Echo Tops with Reflectivity

-   WARP

Darin will mock up TSD display image options for WAWG discussion. The
WAWG will make a recommendation on what should be on the TSD.

Action:

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  21   Darin will mock up images options for what images     Darin Meyer,
       should be displayed on the TSD for WAWG review and    others to
       discussion on the June telcon. WAWG will develop a    support as
       recommendation by the August meeting.                 required

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

All the remaining items were moved to the Parking Lot for future
discussion:

-Priority #1.a. Operational Wx Image

-Priority #1.b. Post Analysis

-Priority #2: DSR Weather Display goodness

-Priority #3: Recommend Weather inputs for Integrated Analysis Tool

**7. Other issues / Member position papers / Review unresolved issues**

**and 8. Wrap up**

It was requested that WFOs be granted CCFP Chat observer status to
observe chat in real-time (passive only). The push to improve service to
aviation is the reason for this request. Canadian airline participants
would also like to have observer status.

Action:

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
  22   Fred Johnson requested we permit WFOs and Canadian    Fred Johnson,
       Airline participants to have observer status to       Joanne
       observe CCFP chat in real-time. Fred and Joanne will  Lancaster
       send email request to WAWG Leads and this item will   
       be discussed on the June telcon.                      

  23   Redistribute to the WAWG the discussion paper format  Dave
       (the vehicle used by group to introduce issues).      Rodenhuis

  24   Darin to distribute Hotel and Meeting information for Darin Meyer
       the August meeting in DC by the June telcon.          
  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

Thanks to Joanne and NAV CANADA for hosting this meeting!

**End of Day 2**

**Consolidated Action Item Summary List from May 18-19, 2004 Meeting:**

  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------
       ** **                                                 ** **

  1    Set up a telcon within 2 week to start the process of Mark, Danny,
       documenting an OpsConcept for the integration of      Tom, Dave,
       short-term and long-term weather products. (Multiple  Barb, Jim
       previous action closed/superseded by this action).    
       Mark to include actionees from the old actions to     
       participate in the telcon and include WAWG leads,     
       Danny Sims, Jim Evans, Barbara Brown, others as       
       required. Output will be coordinated with CDM         
       Leadership for direction.                             

  2    Explode to the WAWG the CCFP intuitive graphics       Danny Sims
       requirements.                                         

  3    Discuss with Volpe the feasibility of implementing    Mike
       intuitive graphics for March 1, 2005                  Golibersuch

  4    Discuss with Barry Davis (ATO-R) the feasibility of   Danny Sims
       implementing intuitive graphics for March 1, 2005     

  5    Discuss with Centers the impact of no CCFP on the TSD Duane Torbert
       for the initial month or so of the season.            

  6    Provide feedback if AWC can support dual operations   Fred Johnson
       for the initial CCFP deployment (old plus the new     
       intuitive format)                                     

  7    Develop training timeline strategy for training       Scott Fox
       intuitive graphics.                                   

  8    Discuss with Unions/TUT what are the workable         Dave
       solutions for implementing intuitive graphics in      Rodenhuis
       spring 2005.                                          

  9    Add to the 2005 User Needs document the               WAWG Leads/
       characterization of convection (slide 17 from         Ken Mullen
       training presentation)                                

  10   By the next telcon (June 25) plan meeting schedule    WAWG Leads/
       through 2005.                                         Danny Sims

  11   Set up WAWG team telcon for June 25 \@1:00 Eastern    WAWG Leads

  12   Environment Canada to provide a lead to the CCFP      Luc Mercier
       team.                                                 

  13   Check to see if intuitive graphics could be produced  Mike
       on the CCSD test string by the end of this season.    Golibersuch

  14   Tom will get a group together to brainstorm on the    Tom Lead and
       transitions from current CCFP to intuitive and then   others TBD
       to probabilistic CCFP. Need to address building block 
       approach in the justification for this change.        

  15   Finalize and distribute internal report on responses  Bryan Wood
       to convection to the WAWG.                            

  16   Include more time for discussion in the next WAWG     WAWG Leads
       meeting agenda.                                       

  17   Need 2005 work plans from organizations supporting    Danny Sims
       WAWG in support of funding efforts. Danny to          
       distribute what is required from support              
       organizations to support 2005 plans and ensure we     
       have the resources to implement 2005 plans.           

  18   ATCSCC to prepare a U.S. proposal for dealing with    Dave
       turbulence (clear-air and convection related). Dave   Rodenhuis,
       will draft a white paper for the June telcon.         Jim and
                                                             Joanne will
                                                             also provide
                                                             input.

  19   Dave and Danny to prepare a strongly worked statement Dave
       in support of Verification funding for the WAWG to    Rodenhuis,
       vote on/get consensus on.                             Danny Sims

  20   Present current funding periodically at WAWG          Danny Sims
       meetings. Danny will provide status at the next       
       meeting and TBD after that.                           

  21   Darin will mock up images options for what images     Darin Meyer,
       should be displayed on the TSD for WAWG review and    others to
       discussion on the June telcon. WAWG will develop a    support as
       recommendation by the August meeting.                 required

  22   Fred Johnson requested we permit WFOs and Canadian    Fred Johnson,
       Airline participants to have observer status to       Joanne
       observe CCFP chat in real-time. Fred and Joanne will  Lancaster
       send email request to WAWG Leads and this item will   
       be discussed on the June telcon.                      

  23   Redistribute to the WAWG the discussion paper format  Dave
       (the vehicle used by group to introduce issues).      Rodenhuis

  24   Darin to distribute Hotel and Meeting information for Darin Meyer
       the August meeting in DC by the June telcon.          
  ---- ----------------------------------------------------- -------------

**Parking Lot Items remaining from this Meeting:**

1.  CCFP Intuitive Graphics-Develop a qualitative summary of the
    justification for the change.

2.  New Requested Tasks by CDM Leadership:

    a.  Priority #1.a. Operational Wx Image

    b.  Priority #1.b. Post Analysis

    c.  Priority #2: DSR Weather Display goodness

    d.  Priority #3: Recommend Weather inputs for Integrated Analysis
        Tool