Required Report - public distribution

**Date:** 2/4/2005

**GAIN Report Number:** CH5015

CH5015

**China, Peoples Republic of**

**Grain and Feed**

**Grain and Feed Annual 2005**

**2005**

**Approved by:**

![](media/image1.wmf)Maurice House

U.S. Embassy, Beijing

**Prepared by:**

Jiang Junyang and Ralph Gifford

**Report Highlights:**

China\'s grain production recovered sharply in 2004 from 2003's poor
harvest because of high prices and yields. Yields for corn and wheat set
records in MY04/05. Although area planted and production should grow
again in 2005, China will continue to be a net importer of wheat and
rice in MY05/06. For MY 05/06, wheat imports are forecast at 6 MMT. The
government will continue to expand policies to encourage grain
production and will continue to support corn exports to its neighbors.
Food grain demand is declining, but feed grain demand will continue to
grow, although not as fast as the overall livestock sector. Barley
output will not keep pace with demand from breweries.

Includes PSD Changes: Yes

Includes Trade Matrix: Yes

Annual Report

Beijing \[CH1\]

\[CH\]

Table of Contents

[**Executive Summary 3**](#executive-summary)

[Policy 3](#policy)

[Market Prices and Grain Area 4](#market-prices-and-grain-area)

[Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQ's) 5](#tariff-rate-quotas-trqs)

[Grain Yield 6](#grain-yield)

[Biotechnology and Biosafety 6](#biotechnology-and-biosafety)

[Wheat 7](#wheat)

[Production 7](#production)

[Consumption 7](#consumption)

[Wheat Stocks 8](#wheat-stocks)

[Corn 9](#corn)

[Production 9](#production-1)

[Consumption 9](#consumption-1)

[Feed Consumption 9](#feed-consumption)

[Corn Industrial Consumption 10](#corn-industrial-consumption)

[Starch Production 10](#starch-production)

[Ethanol Production 11](#ethanol-production)

[Corn Trade and Stocks 11](#corn-trade-and-stocks)

[Rice 12](#rice)

[Production 12](#production-2)

[Consumption 12](#consumption-2)

[Trade and Stocks 12](#trade-and-stocks)

[Barley 13](#barley)

[Sorghum 13](#sorghum)

[Tables 14](#tables)

[PS&D Tables 14](#psd-tables)

[Wheat PS&D 14](#wheat-psd)

[Corn PS&D 15](#corn-psd)

[Rice PS&D 16](#rice-psd)

[Barley PS&D 17](#barley-psd)

[Sorghum PS&D 18](#sorghum-psd)

[Price Tables 19](#price-tables)

[Trade Tables 22](#trade-tables)

# Executive Summary

Grain farmers have been very responsive to government support policies
and higher prices in 2004. Post believes that grain area and production
will continue to rise in MY05/06.

Higher prices are the key factor in boosting area and production. Grain
prices rose 26 percent year-on-year in 2004, according to the National
Statistics Bureau (NSB). Per capita farmer net income, fueled by higher
grain prices, rose 7 percent year-on-year to RMB2,936 (US\$=8.265RMB),
the highest growth rate since 1997. Rural income nevertheless continued
to fall behind urban income.

Over the long term, government target of raising farmers' income will
conflict with the goal of maintaining high rate of grain self-reliance,
as China's small farms are relatively inefficient producers of grain
compared to higher-value labor-intensive products.

## Policy

There have been exceptional developments in China's grain and feed
situation in the past year. The net effect will be an increase in
overall production, but imports of wheat will continue.

Grain consumption has exceeded production for some time, and the state
reserve's enormous stocks have been drawn down to their lowest levels in
years. A short crop in 2003 drew considerable attention and led late in
the year to the first grain price increases in a decade. Farmers
responded to the higher grain prices, increasing 2004 area planted for
all grains. Nearly perfect weather in most of the country allowed record
or near-record yields.

At the same time, the government implemented two significant new policy
initiatives: The announcement of elimination of the agricultural tax;
and the introduction of a system of direct payments to farmers.
Increasing rural income is a stated goal of China's leadership; grain is
an important component.

A tax of 5 percent on agricultural production has been in place for
decades. In March 2004, the government announced elimination of the tax
over five years, but gave the provinces the option of moving faster if
they chose. As of January, 2005, 25 provinces, municipalities, and
autonomous regions already have eliminated the tax entirely.

The effect of the tax reduction on actual production is more political
than economic, and its biggest effect may be on how much production is
reported, rather than on actual production. With a tax to pay, both
farmers and local officials have had an incentive to under-report area
planted to avoid tax. Elimination of the tax could increase reporting of
land planted in grain.

In 2004 the government also introduced a program of direct payments to
grain growers, also to be implemented at the discretion of the
provinces. The payment program, where active, worked out to about
US\$18/ha., or less than \$9 per average farm household in 2004. Some
analysts believe a payment on planted area also could have more impact
on area reported than on actual production. The payment program will be
expanded in 2005.

Although the tax reduction and the direct payment program in theory
would encourage planting, their impact is very small in percentage
terms. The increase in area planted and presumed increase in inputs is a
result of the substantial price increases that began in fall 2003.
Plantings in 2005 will depend on grain prices, not government programs.
If prices remain strong, area planted should continue to increase.

Nevertheless, the government's commitment to "putting its money where
its mouth is" on support for rural income is a significant step in
agricultural policy. When China joined the WTO, it negotiated a cap on
agricultural support payments of 8.5 percent of the value of production,
a compromise between the 5 percent cap for developed countries and the
10 percent cap for developing countries. Last year's direct payments
program was budgeted at \$1.4 billion, less than 2 percent of the
estimated value of total grain production.

Various government and academic research units, as well as private
analysts, have been trying to make projections on China's long-term
grain situation (Note: this analysis generally also includes oilseeds).
It is generally accepted that food security remains a primary concern,
but that a subtle shift from targeting "self-sufficiency" to targeting
"self-reliance" has taken place. Official sources indicate that the goal
is no longer 100 percent self-sufficiency, rather 90 or even 85 percent,
as policymakers recognize that a target of 100 percent can create
surpluses that depress prices. One analytic model by a respected
institute suggests that, given continued rapid economic growth and
substantial additional investment in agricultural productivity, China
could be self-sufficient in food grains (wheat and rice) within the
decade, but would have a shortfall in feed grains exceeding 10 million
tons. This is an academic model, not a forecast of what will actually
happen. The government apparently has come to accept the need to import
significant amounts of soybeans, and a limited amount of wheat, but
still appears to find corn imports politically unacceptable, except when
matched with equal exports.

In 2004, government set a floor price for rice. State owned grain
companies' will purchase rice when market price falls below the floor
price However, during 2004, market price has been higher than the floor
price. State media reports that government will set the support price
for rice again in 2005, and also for wheat and corn.

According to state media, besides the increased fund for direct payment
and seed subsidy, MOA will make it a priority to increase the subsidy on
purchase of agricultural machinery for farmers in 2005.

## Market Prices and Grain Area 

From autumn 2003, grain prices started to rise for the first time in a
decade. The 2004 average price for corn, wheat and rice were
respectively 20, 36 and 40 percent higher than in 2003. At their peak,
rice prices were nearly twice the 2003 level. Responding to the sudden
price rise, farmer increased planted area for all cereals in MY04/05. In
MY05/06, planted area for wheat, rice and corn will continue to rise.

![](media/image2.wmf)Data from National Grain & Oilseed Information
Center

## 

## Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQ's)

On entry to the WTO China instituted Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQ) for wheat,
rice, corn, and several other commodities. These quotas were phased in
and reached final levels, based on 5 percent of historical consumption,
in 2004. A percentage of the quota is reserved for non-state-owned
enterprises: 10 percent for wheat, 40 percent for corn and 50 percent
for rice (both short and long grain). In 2004, fill rates for wheat and
rice were the highest ever but remain near zero for corn.

## 

  ------------------------ ------------ ------------- -------- ---------------
  **China: Grain Tariff                                        
  Rate Quota Allocation                                        
  and Fill Rate in 2004                                        
  (metric tons)**                                              

  **Commodity**            **2004       **2004        **2004   **State
                           Tariff       Imports**     Fill     Enterprise
                           Quota**                    Rate**   Share**

  **Wheat**                9,636,000    727,000,000   75%      90%

  **Corn**                 7,200,000    2,308         0%       60%

  **Rice TRQ**             5,320,000    762,000       14%      50%

  **- Rice Short/Medium    2,660,000    5,000         0%       50%
  Grain**                                                      

  **- Rice Long Grain**    2,660,000    757,000       28%      50%
  ------------------------ ------------ ------------- -------- ---------------

## Grain Yield 

Grain yields have been flat for several years. Ideal weather and higher
input use led to record yields of both corn and wheat harvested in 2004.
The government hopes its support programs will encourage continued
higher input use.

![](media/image3.wmf)

Data from National Statistical Bureau. Data for 2004 and 2005 are
estimates by FAS Beijing

## Biotechnology and Biosafety

In March 2004 the Ministry of Agriculture's GMO office completed its
safety assessment and issued approval for import and processing of seven
corn events, two soybean events, and six canola events from U.S. and
European developers. Applications for approval of these events had been
submitted in March, 2002. Safety assessment studies are carried out by
research institutes under the auspices of MOA, which are then submitted
to the National Biosafety Committee, made up of 50 scientists and
academics.

One corn event commercialized in the United States, NK603 ("Roundup
Ready" corn) has not yet received approval. When it issued approvals for
the other events, MOA insisted that an additional food safety trial be
carried out. This trial was completed in January 2005 and the final
report by the research institute that carried out the study is expected
to be completed and submitted to MOA in February. The next meeting of
the National Biosafety Committee is scheduled for June, 2005, but it is
possible an extraordinary meeting may be scheduled to review the NK603
study.

Following threats to soybean trade in 2001 and 2002, China's leaders
promised the U.S. administration that biotechnology would not be used as
a trade barrier. USDA officials have raised concerns about the
importance of approving NK603 at every opportunity.

China has developed several of its own transgenic grains, but none have
been commercialized. The debate over whether to commercialize a
transgenic rice variety received wide attention in the press late in
2004. MOA appears to be taking an extremely cautious approach on
approval of any transgenic food crops for planting. USDA has engaged
Chinese regulators in frequent dialogs and technical workshops.

China is a signatory of the Biosafety Protocol but has not yet ratified
it.

# Wheat

## Production

In MY05/06, wheat area planted is forecast to increase by about one
million hectares, almost 5 percent more than MY04/05. Responding to
price changes, farmers in the North China Plain have reduced area for
cotton and other cash crops. Increased imports of cotton led to lower
cotton prices in 2004 as wheat prices remained high.

**Crop Quality**

China has no specific grades and standards for wheat. For some time the
government has been encouraging production of "quality wheat" to satisfy
millers' demands for consistent supplies of specialized gluten levels.
"Quality wheat" is not defined. Although officially 46 percent of the
total area in MY04/05 was "quality wheat," up 6 percent from previous
year, most farmers remain indifferent to grades as the price premium for
"quality wheat" is negligible.

In Henan province, quality wheat area accounted for 39 percent of total
planted wheat area in MY04/05. The provincial government predicts that
"quality wheat" will account for 41 percent in MY05/06.

## Consumption

# 

Overall wheat consumption has been stable or declining as consumer
incomes rise and diets shift from more starch-based to more meat-based.
Per capita food grain consumption is falling steadily and the trend will
continue. According to the National Statistical Bureau, per capita
consumption of grain in rural households dropped to 222 kg in 2003 from
250 kg in 2000; per capita annual purchase of grain by urban households
has dropped to 79.5 kg in 2003 from 82 Kg in 2000. This consumption data
is not considered highly reliable.

Although demand for traditional wheat products (baozi, mantou) is
falling, urban consumers purchase more convenience foods, including
instant noodles, biscuits and bakery products.

  ---------------------- ------------- ---------------- ------------------
  **China: Consumption                                  
  of Wheat-based                                        
  Products** (1,000 Mt)                                 

                         **2001**      **2002**         **Growth**

  **Cakes**              145.7         205.6            41%

  **Biscuits**           620.2         688.2            11%

  **Convenient Staple    26,276        28,794           10%
  Food**                                                

  **Instant noodles**    14,811        18,236           23%

  Source: National                                      
  Statistical Bureau                                    
  ---------------------- ------------- ---------------- ------------------

Industries sources estimate that growth rate for the bakery and
convenience food sector will continue to grow more than 10 percent
annually in the next several years.

Processed products need specialized gluten content flour products.
However, domestic wheat has been inconsistent in its quality. To be
consistent in quality, flour miller have to use imported wheat for
blending. Milling industry's import demand for consistent quality wheat,
both hard and soft varieties, is expected to rise in coming years.

## Wheat Stocks 

# 

The government classifies grain stock data as a state secret. Most
off-farm grain stocks are government-owned: state grain storage
enterprises totaled 22,345 as of 2003. Obtaining accurate data on actual
grain reserves from so many facilities would be extremely difficult.
Lack of credible information on grain reserves has been a long-standing
problem for analysts and policy makers.

In 2005, the National Statistical Bureau (NSB) will adopt a new survey
system intended to include data on grain held by all kinds of entities.
In the past, NSB required that only state-owned companies report
routinely on grain stocks and marketing information. The new system
requires all entities \--state owned or not, including processors, feed
millers, retailing/ wholesale markets and chain stores\-- to submit
relevant information on grain stocks and marketing regularly to NSB. It
remains unclear whether such information will become publicly available
or if the new system will produce reliable or accurate information.

Stocks were drawn down sharply in MY03/04, but post expects stocks to
remain fairly constant from the beginning of MY04/05 through the end of
MY05/06, at about 40 million tons.

**Trade**

Despite higher production in MY04/05, wheat imports are expected to
continue. Given the continued demand for quality wheat, wheat imports
for MY05/06 are forecast at 6 MMT, 1.5 million lower than post's
estimate for MY04/05. The forecast is lower than the estimate for
MY04/05 because state stocks have been restored to adequate levels. In
principle the state storage companies exist to balance the market, but
it is widely believed that some state companies failed to follow
government instruction to sell into a rising market. Such behavior
contributed to unchecked market price hikes in 2003.

Post believes that the government failed to evaluate the actual supply
situation in MY03/04. The unexpected price hikes in grains in late 2003
prompted purchases of about 10 MMT of foreign wheat. Trade sources
estimates that about 8 MMT of those purchases had been delivered to
China through 2004; the rest of the contracts are to be implemented in
the first quarter of 2005. Indicating the need to control prices, the
government waived the 13 percent VAT on wheat imports in 2004. The trade
does not expect this waiver to continue. Even if the VAT is waived,
trade sources estimate that the landed price for imported wheat is still
higher than current market price. As a result, most imported wheat
entered the central or provincial state reserve facilities.

Taking soft red winter wheat as an example, trade sources estimate that
the landed price for the imported wheat, even if VAT is waived, is more
than RMB300/ton higher than the locally produced wheat. Domestic wheat
price in 2004 averaged about RMB1,600/ton (see price in Tables section).
Generally speaking, for the quality consistent factor, flour millers
will pay a premium for imported wheat up to RMB300/ton

[]{.mark}

In addition to the government's need to import wheat to replenish the
state grain reserves, millers need premium wheat to blend into flour.
Such premium wheat comes from either auction of imported wheat held by
state reserve or millers' direct imports. The auctioned wheat imports
usually have been in storage for years.

Besides buying from the traditional suppliers such as the United States,
Canada and Australia, China also sighed contracts with French supplier
for 700,000 tons in 2004.

Post believes that the French purchase was a political decision as it
followed a summit meeting. Over the long term, France is not expected to
be a significant supplier of milling wheat to China.

Chinese flour millers are not familiar with French wheat varieties.
Local media reports that in the past years the French wheat industry had
provided samples for flour millers in southern China. In 2004, more
samples were provided for milling trials.

Trade sources expect that Chinese buyers will become more particular on
wheat quality specifications. In 2004, there have been complaints about
dockage, foreign material, and vomitoxin. On a positive note, however,
TCK has not been a problem. Some complaints may stem from contracting
terms in China's purchases.

# Corn 

# 

## Production

# 

Corn area for MY05/06 is forecast to rise to 25.3 million Ha from 24.5
million in MY04/05 as higher prices and tax reduction cause some shift
of marginal land back into grain production. The output for MY05/06 is
forecast to fall to 122 MMT, 8 MMT less than in MY04/05 based on the
assumption that weather, hence yield, is unlikely to be as favorable as
in MY04/05.

The National Statistical Bureau is scheduled to release its final
official data on corn and other cereals in March. Post estimates that
corn production for MY04/05 rose 12 percent over the previous year to
reach 130 MMT. Exceptionally favorable weather conditions at growth
stages in 2004 contributed most to the record yield. Post estimates that
the corn yield was about 10 percent higher than the previous year and
that crop quality also is higher. Hurt by excessive rain before harvest,
the crop in MY03/04 not only was small but also was found to contain
high levels of vomitoxin.

## Consumption

## 

### Feed Consumption 

China's feed corn consumption grows more slowly than its rising meat
production might indicate. The growth rate of China's total meat
production ranges between 3-5 percent annually in the past five years,
according to official data. However, feed corn use has not grown at the
same pace. Other grains including feed wheat and rice, though difficult
to quantify, substitute for corn in the feed sector. According to an
industry survey, based on nutritional value, feed wheat or milled rice
sometimes could substitute up to 5 percent of the corn used in feed.
During the past several years, the government periodically has auctioned
feed-grade wheat and rice that had been stored in state warehouses for
years. Quite a bit of the auctioned grains entered the feed mills.

# 

Feed corn demand also grows more slowly than demand for crude protein
ingredients (soy and other oilseed meals). For instance, feed millers
now have raised protein content in feed for higher valued added aquatic
products.

China's feed production rose 6.8 percent year on year to 93 MMT in 2004,
according to the China Feed Industry Office.

Among the feed products, about 50 percent is for poultry and 30 percent
is for swine.

  ------------- --------------- --------------- ----------------- ----------------
  **China: Feed                                                   
  Production by                                                   
  Type (1,000                                                     
  tons)**                                                         

                **Total**       **Compound**    **Concentrate**   **Premix**

  2003          87,120          64,280          19,580            3,260

  2004          92,660          68,220          20,800            3,640

  Preliminary                                                     
  Data from                                                       
  China Feed                                                      
  Industry                                                        
  Office                                                          
  ------------- --------------- --------------- ----------------- ----------------

  -------------------- ------------- ------------ ------------ ------------
  **China: Feed                                                
  Production by Use,                                           
  2004**                                                       

  **Total Feed         **For Swine** **For        **For        **Others**
  Products**                         Poultry**    Aquatic**    

  100 ( %)             32            52           10           6

  Source: Ministry of                                          
  Agriculture                                                  
  -------------------- ------------- ------------ ------------ ------------

  ----------------------- ----------- ----------- --------------- ---------------------
  **China: Feed                                                   
  Production by User,                                             
  2004**                                                          

                          **Diary**   **Swine**   **Poultry-Egg   **Poultry-Broiler**
                                                  Layer**         

  Output by Commercial    30          40          70              85
  Farm                                                            

  Output by Household (%) 70          60          30              15
  ----------------------- ----------- ----------- --------------- ---------------------

Industry sources believe that as the sector integrates, more commercial
feed will be used and commercial farms will attain a larger market
share. Currently, it is estimated that about 40 percent of swine and 70
percent of poultry are raised on commercial farms.

There is no official estimate on feed grain consumption in China. Post
believes that the improved formulation in feed products has or will
continue to make more efficient use of grain for unit of meat
production.

The byproducts from the starch and brewery industry also substitute for
grain use in feed. For instance in Jan-Nov, 2004, starch industries
imported 3.15 MMT of dried cassava, up 45 percent from same period in
2003.

Post estimates that feed grain use, including corn, rice and rice
consumption, will continue to grow lower than the rate that China's meat
production indicates. Its growth rate could be about 2 percent or even
lower annually in the coming years.

# 

### Corn Industrial Consumption

#### Starch Production 

Starch manufacturing consumes the majority of non-feed corn. Industry
sources estimate that corn-based starch production reached about 7.5 MMT
in 2004, up 10 percent from the previous year. Total corn used for
starch reached about 10 MMT in 2004. Food processing accounts for most
of the growth in demand, which is expected to continue.

#### Ethanol Production

China launched grain based ethanol production during the tenth five-year
plan (2001-2005). Plants were approved in each of four major
grain-producing provinces: Jilin, Heilongjiang, Henan and Anhui. Total
design output capacity of the four plants is 1.02 MMT which use about 3
MMT of grain (corn and wheat) as a raw material. Since 2002 the
government has started the trial use of a 10 percent-ethanol gasohol in
some cities. By 2005, the use of ethanol in fuel is expected to extend
to five provinces and parts of another four provinces, according to
National Development and Reform Commission. Industry sources estimate
total ethanol use in 2005 will be about 700,000 tons. This means about 2
MMT of grain will be processed, of which about 1.4 MMT is expected to be
corn.

Both central and local governments have invested heavily to support the
ethanol sector. State media reports that the government currently offers
RMB 1,800/ton as subsidy for corn-based ethanol. Industry sources do not
expect government to approve any new grain based ethanol production
projects in the next few years.

## 

## Corn Trade and Stocks 

In the past China has been both an exporter and importer of corn.

Corn exports for MY04/05 are estimated at 4.5 MMT. Government support
policy plays a key role in China's corn export program. The government
announces an export quota usually \--but not always\-- once a year.
Industry sources estimate that in 2005 the corn export quota is likely
to be around 5 MMT. In 2004 the quota totaled 4.4 MMT, although only
half of the quota was filled. Total exports for 2004 were 2.3 MMT,
according to Chinese Customs data.

Because of lower production forecast for MY05/06 and steady growth in
corn consumption, corn exports for MY05/06 are forecast at 3 MMT, 1.5
MMT less than in MY04/05. The domestic corn price has been sluggish
since the 2004 fall harvest, and industry sources estimate that corn
stock levels are adequate.

The majority of the corn stocks are held in northern production
provinces including Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia. Central or
provincial governments pay all the storage costs. Because of
transportation bottlenecks in bringing the corn down to users in the
south, these provinces lobby the central government for support for corn
exports to nearby markets in South Korea and Japan.

In 2005, the central government is expected to offer more support for
corn exports. Previously, a 13 percent VAT rebate and transportation
discounts was applied to the corn exports. Such policies will remain in
place in 2005. Furthermore, state media reports that the government has
increased the tax rebate for corn exports in 2005. According to industry
sources, the tax rebate was based on the price fixed by the government
rather than the actual FOB price. State media reports that the
government had increased the base price for calculating the VAT rebate
to RMB 1,100 (\$133) per ton, from the former base price of RMB860
(\$104). This would increase the tax rebate on exports by \$3.77/ton.

China agreed to stop subsidizing exports when it joined the WTO, and
insists that its corn export assistance program is not in violation of
WTO principles. However, many analysts disagree.

On the import side, corn is subject to a Tariff Rate Quota (See TRQ
section in Policy), but has imported virtually no corn since 1997. Post
learned that most private end users including feed millers and starch
miller are less enthusiastic about applying for corn import TRQ in 2005.
Imports of corn are expected to be minimal in MY04/05. For MY05/06, post
forecasts 1 MMT of imports, assuming continued strong demand from
southern coastal feed and starch millers and a favorable relationship
between domestic freight rates and ocean freight rates.

# 

# Rice 

## Production

Overall rice acreage for MY05/06 is expected to continue to increase.
Planted area for MY04/05 is estimated 9 percent higher than the previous
year. Average retail prices for rice rose more than 40 percent in 2004,
the most of any grain. As it can be double-cropped in most parts of
southern China, planted area for rice can expand much more than other
grains. In addition to increased double-cropping in some provinces, rice
farmers also planted some previously abandoned land.

To encourage production, in 2004 the government set the floor price for
early indica rice at RMB 1,400/ton (unmilled), and RMB 1,500/tons for
japonica. State-owned grain companies will purchase rice at the floor
price if the market price falls below the floor price. However,
throughout 2004 the market price has been higher than the floor price.
State media report that the government will establish a support price
for rice again in 2005. Industry sources estimate that the support price
should be the same level as previous year.

## Consumption

Consumption in MY 05/06 is expected to increase slightly. Indica rice
varieties are mainly consumed in southern China. Japonica rice varieties
are mainly consumed in northern China. The per capita consumption of
rice as a staple food is declining as incomes rise, but there is some
increase in rice use in food processing. It is reported that 60 percent
of the population consumes rice as its staple food.

In addition to food use, low quality early rice varieties or stale rice
reserves are used to feed swine and poultry at both commercial farms and
rural households. There is no reliable data on feed use of rice; post
estimates at least 10 MMT.

## Trade and Stocks

For MY05/06 rice imports are forecast at 900,000 tons, the same as in
MY04/05. This represents a big jump from previous levels which had
averaged 300,000 tons/year. The increased rice imports will be indica
varieties mainly from Vietnam through border trade. Over the years, as
an efficient rice producer, China will not be a significant rice
importer.

In past years, most rice imports were Thai fragrant rice for affluent
consumers in southern coastal provinces. Early in 2004, local media and
trade sources reported that small quantities of Vietnamese rice have
been continuously entering China through border trade or smuggling.
Trade sources estimate that about 400,000 metric tons of Vietnamese rice
entered China in the first half of 2004 through border trade; these
imports were not recorded in official Chinese customs data (see CH
4008).

China became a net rice importer in 2004, if the border trade is counted
in its balance sheet. China will continue to be a net rice importer, by
a very small margin, in MY04/05 and MY05/06.

China and Vietnam signed a quarantine protocol on rice imports in
October 2004. Vietnamese rice now can enter China through official
channels and should be counted in official trade statistics. Thailand
and Uruguay have had protocols in place for some time.

Rice exports will continue to drop in MY04/05 and MY05/06. From 2000 to
2003, China exported about 2 MMT yearly. Most of China's rice exports
were low quality indica to African countries. As rice stock levels
continue to fall, such rice will be less available. In addition to the
low quality indica, China also exports japonica varieties to Japan,
Russia and South Korea. These exports are small in volume but highly
profitable, and therefore could increase.

# Barley

Post estimates that both barley area and production will decline further
in MY05/06. In 2004, the government established support programs for
wheat, rice and corn farmers. However, barley was not listed. Both
Chinese agricultural authorities and statistical offices pay little
attention to barley production. Both the NSB and MOA have told post that
there has been no agency oversight of barley production for several
years. However, NSB says it will resume its survey of the barley
situation in 2005.

The majority of China's barley is used for brewing. Domestic barley
production has been insufficient to supply the expanding brewing
industry. China's beer production totaled 25.8 million kilolitres in the
first ten months of 2004, up 15.4 percent year-on-year, according to the
China Brewery Association. The sector's total demand for malting barley
is estimated at around 4 MMT annually. In MY03/04 China imported 1.5 MMT
of malting barley from Australia, Canada, and France, less than previous
years. Barley imports In MY04/05 and 05/06, are forecast to recover to
1.8 MMT.

Despite the rise in malt demand, malting barley imports will depend on
price. According to industry sources, if malting barley prices rise on
the international market, more feed barley or other grains could be
substituted.

# Sorghum

Sorghum area and production is forecast to fall in MY05/06. Unlike corn,
wheat and rice, sorghum production receives no government support.
Sorghum is mostly planted on marginal land with no irrigation
facilities. NSB will release official data in April.

Majority of the sorghum is used for alcohol production. China's hard
liquor output reached 2.43 MMT in the first months, up 3.8 percent
year-on-year. However, in recent years, in response to changing consumer
tastes, the sector has been producing hard liquor with lower alcohol
content. This consumes less sorghum and other cereals per unit of
production. The brewery sector demand for sorghum is estimated to be
stable.

As production drops, less sorghum will be used for feed in coming years.

Some sorghum is exported to Japan and South Korea, mostly as a low-cost
feed ingredient.

# Tables

## PS&D Tables

### Wheat PS&D

#  

  ----------------- ----------- ------------- ----------- -------------- ----------- -------------- ---------
  **Country**       **China,                                                                        
                    Peoples                                                                         
                    Republic                                                                        
                    of**                                                                            

  **Commodity**     **Wheat**                                            (1000                      
                                                                         HA)(1000                   
                                                                         MT)                        

                    **2003**    **Revised**   **2004**    **Estimate**   **2005**    **Forecast**   **UOM**

                    **USDA      **Post        **USDA      **Post         **USDA      **Post         
                    Official    Estimate      Official    Estimate       Official    Estimate       
                    \[Old\]**   \[New\]**     \[Old\]**   \[New\]**      \[Old\]**   \[New\]**      

  **Market Year                 07/2003                   07/2004                    07/2005        MM/YYYY
  Begin**                                                                                           

  **Area            22000       22000         21500       21750          0           22780          (1000 HA)
  Harvested**                                                                                       

  **Beginning       60378       60378         43293       44943          38293       41443          (1000 MT)
  Stocks**                                                                                          

  **Production**    86490       86490         90000       91000          0           92000          (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL Mkt. Yr.  3749        3749          8000        7500           0           6000           (1000 MT)
  Imports**                                                                                         

  **Jul-Jun         3749        3749          8000        7500           0           6000           (1000 MT)
  Imports**                                                                                         

  **Jul-Jun Import  1466        1466          0           2500           0           2000           (1000 MT)
  U.S.**                                                                                            

  **TOTAL SUPPLY**  150617      150617        141293      143443         38293       139443         (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL Mkt. Yr.  2824        2824          1000        700            0           500            (1000 MT)
  Exports**                                                                                         

  **Jul-Jun         2824        2824          1000        700            0           500            (1000 MT)
  Exports**                                                                                         

  **Feed Dom.       6000        4000          4000        2500           0           2000           (1000 MT)
  Consumption**                                                                                     

  **TOTAL Dom.      104500      102850        102000      101300         0           100800         (1000 MT)
  Consumption**                                                                                     

  **Ending Stocks** 43293       44943         38293       41443          0           38143          (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL           150617      150617        141293      143443         0           139443         (1000 MT)
  DISTRIBUTION**                                                                                    
  ----------------- ----------- ------------- ----------- -------------- ----------- -------------- ---------

### Corn PS&D

  ---------------- ----------- ------------- ----------- -------------- ----------- -------------- ---------
  **Country**      **China,                                                                        
                   Peoples                                                                         
                   Republic                                                                        
                   of**                                                                            

  **Commodity**    **Corn**                                             (1000                      
                                                                        HA)(1000                   
                                                                        MT)                        

                   **2003**    **Revised**   **2004**    **Estimate**   **2005**    **Forecast**   **UOM**

                   **USDA      **Post        **USDA      **Post         **USDA      **Post         
                   Official    Estimate      Official    Estimate       Official    Estimate       
                   \[Old\]**   \[New\]**     \[Old\]**   \[New\]**      \[Old\]**   \[New\]**      

  **Market Year                10/2003                   10/2004                    10/2005        MM/YYYY
  Begin**                                                                                          

  **Area           24068       24068         24500       24500          0           25300          (1000 HA)
  Harvested**                                                                                      

  **Beginning      64973       64973         43852       48752          33052       47352          (1000 MT)
  Stocks**                                                                                         

  **Production**   115830      115830        126000      130000         0           122000         (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 2           2             200         100            0           1000           (1000 MT)
  Imports**                                                                                        

  **Oct-Sep        2           2             200         100            0           1000           (1000 MT)
  Imports**                                                                                        

  **Oct-Sep Import 1           1             0           0              0           500            (1000 MT)
  U.S.**                                                                                           

  **TOTAL SUPPLY** 180805      180805        170052      178852         33052       170352         (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 7553        7553          4000        4500           0           3000           (1000 MT)
  Exports**                                                                                        

  **Oct-Sep        7553        7553          4000        4500           0           3000           (1000 MT)
  Exports**                                                                                        

  **Feed Dom.      98000       96500         100000      98000          0           99500          (1000 MT)
  Consumption**                                                                                    

  **TOTAL Dom.     129400      124500        133000      127000         0           129500         (1000 MT)
  Consumption**                                                                                    

  **Ending         43852       48752         33052       47352          0           37852          (1000 MT)
  Stocks**                                                                                         

  **TOTAL          180805      180805        170052      178852         0           170352         (1000 MT)
  DISTRIBUTION**                                                                                   
  ---------------- ----------- ------------- ----------- -------------- ----------- -------------- ---------

###  

### Rice PS&D

  ----------------- ----------- ------------- ----------- -------------- ----------- -------------- ---------
  **Country**       **China,                                                                        
                    Peoples                                                                         
                    Republic                                                                        
                    of**                                                                            

  **Commodity**     **Rice,                                              (1000                      
                    Milled**                                             HA)(1000                   
                                                                         MT)                        

                    **2003**    **Revised**   **2004**    **Estimate**   **2005**    **Forecast**   **UOM**

                    **USDA      **Post        **USDA      **Post         **USDA      **Post         
                    Official    Estimate      Official    Estimate       Official    Estimate       
                    \[Old\]**   \[New\]**     \[Old\]**   \[New\]**      \[Old\]**   \[New\]**      

  **Market Year                 01/2004                   01/2005                    01/2006        MM/YYYY
  Begin**                                                                                           

  **Area            26508       26508         28700       28800          0           29500          (1000 HA)
  Harvested**                                                                                       

  **Beginning       67224       67224         44561       44552          34661       35852          (1000 MT)
  Stocks**                                                                                          

  **Milled          112462      112462        126000      126000         0           128000         (1000 MT)
  Production**                                                                                      

  **Rough           160660      160660        180000      180000         0           182857         (1000 MT)
  Production**                                                                                      

  **MILLING RATE    7000        7000          7000        7000           0           7000           (1000 MT)
  (.9999)**                                                                                         

  **TOTAL Imports** 1100        762           600         900            0           900            (1000 MT)

  **Jan-Dec         1100        762           600         900            0           900            (1000 MT)
  Imports**                                                                                         

  **Jan-Dec Import  0           0             0           0              0           0              (1000 MT)
  U.S.**                                                                                            

  **TOTAL SUPPLY**  180786      180448        171161      171452         34661       164752         (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL Exports** 825         896           800         500            0           600            (1000 MT)

  **Jan-Dec         825         896           800         500            0           600            (1000 MT)
  Exports**                                                                                         

  **TOTAL Dom.      135400      135000        135700      135100         0           135200         (1000 MT)
  Consumption**                                                                                     

  **Ending Stocks** 44561       44552         34661       35852          0           28952          (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL           180786      180448        171161      171452         0           164752         (1000 MT)
  DISTRIBUTION**                                                                                    
  ----------------- ----------- ------------- ----------- -------------- ----------- -------------- ---------

### Barley PS&D

  ---------------- ------------ ------------- ----------- -------------- ----------- -------------- ---------
  **Country**      **China,                                                                         
                   Peoples                                                                          
                   Republic                                                                         
                   of**                                                                             

  **Commodity**    **Barley**                                            (1000                      
                                                                         HA)(1000                   
                                                                         MT)                        

                   **2003**     **Revised**   **2004**    **Estimate**   **2005**    **Forecast**   **UOM**

                   **USDA       **Post        **USDA      **Post         **USDA      **Post         
                   Official     Estimate      Official    Estimate       Official    Estimate       
                   \[Old\]**    \[New\]**     \[Old\]**   \[New\]**      \[Old\]**   \[New\]**      

  **Market Year                 10/2003                   10/2004                    10/2005        MM/YYYY
  Begin**                                                                                           

  **Area           950          950           955         900            0           850            (1000 HA)
  Harvested**                                                                                       

  **Beginning      742          742           509         409            359         303            (1000 MT)
  Stocks**                                                                                          

  **Production**   3400         3400          3450        3250           0           3100           (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 1519         1519          1800        1800           0           1800           (1000 MT)
  Imports**                                                                                         

  **Oct-Sep        1519         1519          1800        1800           0           1800           (1000 MT)
  Imports**                                                                                         

  **Oct-Sep Import 0            0             0           0              0           0              (1000 MT)
  U.S.**                                                                                            

  **TOTAL SUPPLY** 5661         5661          5759        5459           359         5203           (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 2            2             0           6              0           5              (1000 MT)
  Exports**                                                                                         

  **Oct-Sep        2            2             0           6              0           5              (1000 MT)
  Exports**                                                                                         

  **Feed Dom.      1450         1400          1500        1200           0           1000           (1000 MT)
  Consumption**                                                                                     

  **TOTAL Dom.     5150         5250          5400        5150           0           4900           (1000 MT)
  Consumption**                                                                                     

  **Ending         509          409           359         303            0           298            (1000 MT)
  Stocks**                                                                                          

  **TOTAL          5661         5661          5759        5459           0           5203           (1000 MT)
  DISTRIBUTION**                                                                                    
  ---------------- ------------ ------------- ----------- -------------- ----------- -------------- ---------

### 

###  

### Sorghum PS&D

  ---------------- ------------- ------------- ----------- -------------- ----------- -------------- ---------
  **Country**      **China,                                                                          
                   Peoples                                                                           
                   Republic of**                                                                     

  **Commodity**    **Sorghum**                                            (1000                      
                                                                          HA)(1000                   
                                                                          MT)                        

                   **2003**      **Revised**   **2004**    **Estimate**   **2005**    **Forecast**   **UOM**

                   **USDA        **Post        **USDA      **Post         **USDA      **Post         
                   Official      Estimate      Official    Estimate       Official    Estimate       
                   \[Old\]**     \[New\]**     \[Old\]**   \[New\]**      \[Old\]**   \[New\]**      

  **Market Year                  10/2003                   10/2004                    10/2005        MM/YYYY
  Begin**                                                                                            

  **Area           722           722           780         700            0           700            (1000 HA)
  Harvested**                                                                                        

  **Beginning      547           547           297         247            527         252            (1000 MT)
  Stocks**                                                                                           

  **Production**   2865          2865          3100        3000           0           2800           (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 3             3             5           5              0           5              (1000 MT)
  Imports**                                                                                          

  **Oct-Sep        3             3             5           5              0           5              (1000 MT)
  Imports**                                                                                          

  **Oct-Sep Import 0             0             0           0              0           0              (1000 MT)
  U.S.**                                                                                             

  **TOTAL SUPPLY** 3415          3415          3402        3252           527         3057           (1000 MT)

  **TOTAL Mkt. Yr. 168           168           75          100                        100            (1000 MT)
  Exports**                                                                                          

  **Oct-Sep        168           168           75          100                        100            (1000 MT)
  Exports**                                                                                          

  **Feed Dom.      750           750           500         550            0           500            (1000 MT)
  Consumption**                                                                                      

  **TOTAL Dom.     2950          3000          2800        2900           0           2700           (1000 MT)
  Consumption**                                                                                      

  **Ending         297           247           527         252            0           257            (1000 MT)
  Stocks**                                                                                           

  **TOTAL          3415          3415          3402        3252           0           3057           (1000 MT)
  DISTRIBUTION**                                                                                     
  ---------------- ------------- ------------- ----------- -------------- ----------- -------------- ---------

## Price Tables

  -------------------- ----------------------- --------------------------
  **China: Average                             
  Wheat Wholesale                              
  Price (Grade2)**                             

  (Renminbi Per Metric                         
  Ton, USD 1.00 = RMB                          
  8.27)                                        

  National Average     Producing Region/1      Consuming Region/2

  December (2002)      1,130                   1,143

  January (2003)       1,104                   1,133

  February             1,093                   1,135

  March                1,103                   1,147

  April                1,108                   1,157

  May                  1,093                   1,157

  June                 1,080                   1,140

  July                 1,048                   1,140

  August               1,065                   1,147

  September            1,135                   1,153

  October              1,125                   1,150

  November             1,253                   1,310

  December             1,407                   1,563

  January (2004)       1,410                   1,540

  February             1,440                   1,550

  March                1,640                   1,650

  April                1,630                   1,670

  May                  1,610                   1,610

  June                 1,580                   1,610

  July                 1,560                   1,610

  August               1,600                   1,640

  September            1,630                   1,690

  October              1,610                   1,665

  November             1,635                   1,675

  December             1,610                   1,685

  January(2005)        1,620                   1,705

                                               

  /1 Heilongjiang,                             
  Shandong,                                    
  Henan,Shanxi                                 

  /2 Beijing, Tianjin,                         
  Fujian                                       

  Source: China                                
  National Grain and                           
  Oils Information                             
  Center                                       
  -------------------- ----------------------- --------------------------

  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------
  **China: Average Corn                           
  Wholesale Prices**                              

  (Renminbi Per Metric                            
  Ton, USD 1.00 = RMB                             
  8.27)                                           

                          Producing Region/1      Consuming Region/2

  National Average                                

                                                  

  December (2002)         990                     1054

  January (2003)          980                     1105

  February                981                     1080

  March                   991                     1078

  April                   993                     1097

  May                     984                     1108

  June                    986                     1105

  July                    979                     1100

  August                  991                     1108

  September               981                     1118

  October                 983                     1140

  November                1,125                   1,300

  December                1,125                   1,298

  January (2004)          1,178                   1,355

  February                1,153                   1,318

  March                   1,185                   1,355

  April                   1,270                   1,415

  May                     1,290                   1,408

  June                    1,293                   1,413

  July                    1,315                   1,440

  August                  1,325                   1,460

  September               1,290                   1,435

  October                 1,200                   1,385

  November                1,140                   1,305

  December                1,120                   1,300

  January (2005)          1,113                   1,275

                                                  

  /1 Heilongjiang, Jilin,                         
  Shandong, Henan                                 

  /2 Tianjin, Fujian,                             
  Jiangxi, Hubei                                  

  Source: China National                          
  Grain and Oils                                  
  Information Center                              
  ----------------------- ----------------------- -----------------------

  -------------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
  **China: Average Retail                           
  Rice Prices**                                     

  (Renminbi Per Metric Ton,                         
  USD 1.00 = RMB 8.27)                              

  National Average           Milled Indica Grade 1  Milled Indica Grade 1

                             Producing Region/1     Consuming Region/2

  January (2003)             1,450                  1,580

  February                   1,430                  1,630

  March                      1,440                  1,600

  April                      1,440                  1,620

  May                        1,440                  1,600

  June                       1,440                  1,610

  July                       1,440                  1,600

  August                     1,470                  1,590

  September                  1,480                  1,590

  October                    1,490                  1,610

  November                   1,640                  1,770

  December                   1,870                  1,850

  January (2004)             1,990                  1,900

  February                   2,100                  2,060

  March                      2,490                  2,240

  April                      2,450                  2,220

  May                        2,660                  2,570

  June                       2,650                  2,540

  July                       2,590                  2,520

  August                     2,480                  2,510

  September                  2,470                  2,490

  October                    2,440                  2,460

  November                   2,390                  2,390

  December                   2,380                  2,450

  /1 Zhejiang,Anhui, Fujian                         

  /2 Guangdong, Guangxi                             

  Source: China National                            
  Grain and Oils Information                        
  Center                                            
  -------------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------

## Trade Tables

  ---------------------------------------------------- ---------- ----------- ----------- ------------ -------
  **China Wheat Imports by Origin, MY 2003/2004 (1,000                                                 
  Metric Tons)**                                                                                       

  Country                                              Jul-Sep    Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun    Total

  United States                                        69         115         23          927          1,134

  Australia                                            2          3           38          599          641

  Canada                                               85         1           201         933          1,219

  France                                               0          0           0           0            0

  Japan                                                2          3           2           2            9

  Korea, South                                         2          2           1           2            6

  Italy                                                0          1           1           0            2

  Thailand                                             0          1           0           0            1

  Nepal                                                0          0           0           1            2

  Hong Kong                                            0          0           0           0            1

  Others                                                          1           0           0            2

                                                                                                       

  Grand Total                                          161        125         267         2,464        3,018

                                                                                                       

  Source: China Customs                                                                                

  HS                                                                                                   
  Codes:10011000,10019010,10019090,11010000,19021900                                                   

  ,19023030,19023090, 19024000                                                                         
  ---------------------------------------------------- ---------- ----------- ----------- ------------ -------

  ---------------------------------------------------- ---------- ----------- ----------- ------------ -------
  **China Wheat Imports by Origin, MY 2004/2005 (1,000                                                 
  Metric Tons**)                                                                                       

  Country                                              Jul-Sep    Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun    Total

  United States                                        930        936                                  1,866

  Australia                                            505        643                                  1,149

  Canada                                               818        585                                  1,403

  France                                               0          105                                  105

  Japan                                                2          3                                    6

  Korea, South                                         2          3                                    4

  Italy                                                1          1                                    1

  Thailand                                             0          1                                    1

  Nepal                                                1          0                                    2

  Hong Kong                                            0          0                                    1

  Others                                               4          6                                    10

                                                                                                       

  Grand Total                                          2,260      2,277                                4,537

                                                                                                       

  Source: China Customs                                                                                

  HS                                                                                                   
  Codes:10011000,10019010,10019090,11010000,19021900                                                   

  ,19023030,19023090, 19024000                                                                         
  ---------------------------------------------------- ---------- ----------- ----------- ------------ -------

  ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China:                                                     
  Wheat                                                        
  Imports By                                                   
  Month**                                                      

  **(1,000                                                     
  Metric                                                       
  Tons)**                                                      

               2000        2001        2002        2003        2004

                                                               

  January      115         16          172         40          42

  February     55          57          27          4           105

  March        120         28          16          54          120

  April        173         84          156         46          439

  May          180         7           38          31          789

  June         55          8           57          5           1,236

  July         114         34          50          5           748

  August       42          18          17          47          654

  September    37          71          64          112         859

  October      14          26          40          16          1009

  November     30          201         17          34          640

  December     9           222         7           79          628

                                                               

  JAN-DEC      944         772         661         473         7,269
  TOTAL                                                        

                                                               

               (00/01)     (01/02)     (02/03)     (03/04)     (04/05)

  JUL-JUN MY   446         1,038       375         3,024       1/ 4,537
  TOTAL                                                        

                                                               

  1/ year to                                                   
  date                                                         

  Source: PRC                                                  
  Customs                                                      

  HS Code:                                                     
  1001.1000,                                                   
  1001.9010,                                                   
  1001.9090,                                                   
  1101.0000,                                                   
  1902.1100,                                                   
  1902.1900,                                                   
  1902.3030,                                                   

  1902.3090,                                                   
  and                                                          
  1902.4000                                                    
  ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ----------------------------------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Wheat Exports by Destination, MY 2003/2004                                                   
  (1,000 Metric Tons)**                                                                                 

  Country                                               Jul-Sep     Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Total

  Vietnam                                               112         43          0           14          168

  Korea, South                                          354         226         79          186         845

  Hong Kong                                             30          36          29          32          127

  Philippines                                           13          38          13          14          78

  Korea, North                                          23          116         11          20          170

  Indonesia                                             2           4           4           3           13

  Japan                                                 14          7           13          13          48

  Thailand                                              3           5           4           17          30

  United Kingdom                                        2           3           2           2           9

  Mongolia                                              2           2           2           1           7

  Others                                                173         516         205         96          991

                                                                                                        

  Grand Total                                           727         996         362         399         2,485

                                                                                                        

  Source: China Customs                                                                                 

  HS                                                                                                    
  Codes:10011000,10019010,10019090,11010000,19021900,                                                   

  19023030,19023090, 19024000                                                                           
  ----------------------------------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ---------------------------------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Wheat Exports by Destination, MY 2004/2005                                                  
  (1,000 Metric Tons)**                                                                                

  Country                                              Jul-Sep     Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Total

  Vietnam                                              56          48                                  104

  Korea, South                                         43          44                                  86

  Hong Kong                                            33          40                                  73

  Philippines                                          1           34                                  34

  Korea, North                                         30          24                                  54

  Indonesia                                            17          17                                  34

  Japan                                                5           16                                  20

  Thailand                                             5           4                                   9

  United Kingdom                                       3           4                                   7

  Mongolia                                             3           3                                   6

  Others                                               14          19                                  33

                                                                                                       

  Grand Total                                          210         251                                 461

                                                                                                       

  Source: China Customs                                                                                

  HS                                                                                                   
  Codes:10011000,10019010,10019090,11010000,19021900                                                   

  ,19023030,19023090, 19024000                                                                         
  ---------------------------------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ---------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Wheat Exports                                                 
  By Month**                                                             

  **(1,000 Metric                                                        
  Tons)**                                                                

                         2000        2001        2002        2003        2004

                                                                         

  January                22          24          56          86          94

  February               15          32          173         133         164

  March                  31          41          71          166         105

  April                  28          34          107         104         127

  May                    27          66          98          308         169

  June                   43          81          177         191         103

  July                   35          106         101         232         63

  August                 34          113         114         240         95

  September              31          135         87          291         52

  October                32          57          120         422         106

  November               32          115         41          195         83

  December               26          125         85          417         62

                                                                         

  JAN-DEC TOTAL          357         929         1,230       2,785       1,223

                                                                         

                         (00/01)     (01/02)     (02/03)     (03/04)     (04/05)

  JUL-JUN MY TOTAL       468         1,333       1,536       2,559       1/ 461

                                                                         

  1/ year to date                                                        

  Source: PRC Customs                                                    

  HS Code: 1001.1000,                                                    
  1001.9010, 1001.9090,                                                  
  1101.0000, 1902.1100,                                                  

  1902.1900,                                                             
  1902.3030,1902.3090,                                                   
  and 1902.4000                                                          
  ---------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Corn Exports by                                                  
  Destination, MY 2003/2004                                                 
  (Metric Tons)**                                                           

  Country                   Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  Japan                     588,609     75,768      334,705     111,739     1,110,821

  Korea, South              3,163,947   738,967     219,978     104,037     4,226,928

  Korea, North              4,905       8,831       0           24,984      38,720

  Malaysia                  796,975     114,482     39,109      4,949       955,516

  Hong Kong                 19,158      1,539       693         3,403       24,793

  Namibia                   0           0           0           2,000       2,000

  Lesotho                   0           0           0           2,000       2,000

  Bangladesh                17          0           0           60          77

  Myanmar                   0           0           0           0           0

  Cambodia                  0           0           0           0           0

  Others                    1,096,920   94,634      893         0           1,192,447

                                                                            

  Grand Total               5,670,530   1,034,221   595,378     253,173     7,553,303

                                                                            

  Source: China Customs                                                     

  HS                                                                        
  Codes:10051000,10059000                                                   

                                                                            
  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Corn Exports by                                                  
  Destination, MY 2004/2005                                                 
  (Metric Tons)**                                                           

  Country                   Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  Korea, South              255,358                                         255,358

  Malaysia                  93,145                                          93,145

  Japan                     74,407                                          74,407

  Hong Kong                 6,717                                           6,717

  Korea, North              5,523                                           5,523

  Vietnam                   150                                             150

  Pakistan                  90                                              90

  Oman                      0                                               0

  Philippines               0                                               0

  Saudi Arabia              0                                               0

  Others                                                                    

                                                                            

  Grand Total               435,389                                         435,389

                                                                            

  Source: China Customs                                                     

  HS                                                                        
  Codes:10051000,10059000                                                   
  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------ ------------ ----------- ------------ ------------ -----------
  **China:                                                        
  Corn Exports                                                    
  By Month**                                                      

  (Metric                                                         
  Tons)                                                           

               2000         2001        2002         2003         2004

                                                                  

  January      210,003      607,625     229,842      570,290      574,731

  February     589,488      745,158     770,204      1,765,212    443,422

  March        1,219,532    938,043     1,100,590    1,596,104    16,068

  April        530,920      251,214     855,122      551,026      72,177

  May          350,985      469,940     271,409      392,106      358,111

  June         962,939      124,939     257,892      1,818,844    165,090

  July         1,557,699    505,799     1,034,190    1,446,253    157,186

  August       1,582,611    345,695     1,652,001    1,182,624    55,373

  September    740,849      547,941     977,675      1,396,462    40,614

  October      914,163      327,458     1,268,340    1,531,617    48,572

  November     832,127      471,514     1,349,379    858,522      43,284

  December     993,483      662,658     1,906,864    3,280,392    343,533

                                                                  

  JAN-DEC      10,484,799   5,997,984   11,673,508   16,389,452   2,318,161
  TOTAL                                                           

                                                                  

               (00/01)      (01/02)     (02/03)      (03/04)      (04/05)

  OCT-SEP MY   7,276,127    8,610,555   15,243,504   7,553,303    1/ 435,389
  TOTAL                                                           

  1/ year to                                                      
  date                                                            

  HS Code:                                                        
  1005.1000,                                                      
  1005.9000                                                       

  Source: PRC                                                     
  Customs                                                         
  ------------ ------------ ----------- ------------ ------------ -----------

  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Corn Imports by                                                  
  Origin, MY 2003/2004                                                      
  (Metric Tons)**                                                           

  Country                   Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  Vietnam                   0           0           0           1,620       1,620

  United States             20          60          146         162         387

  India                     0           21          0           4           26

  Argentina                 0           0           0           2           2

  Philippines               0           0           0           1           1

  Chile                     0           4           1           0           6

  Germany                   0           6           0           0           6

  Yugoslavia                0           0           0           0           0

  Switzerland               0           0           0           0           0

  Bolivia                   0           0           0           0           0

  Others                    54          35          2           0           91

                                                                            

  Grand Total               74          126         149         1,789       2,138

  Source: China Customs                                                     

  HS                                                                        
  Codes:10051000,10059000                                                   
  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Corn Imports by                                                  
  Origin, MY 2004/2005                                                      
  (Metric Tons)**                                                           

  Country                   Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  United States             121                                             121

  Vietnam                   120                                             120

  Germany                   4                                               4

  Philippines               0                                               0

  Chile                     0                                               0

  Colombia                  0                                               0

  Mexico                    0                                               0

  Peru                      0                                               0

  Uruguay                   0                                               0

  Canada                    0                                               0

  Others                    0                                               0

                                                                            

  Grand Total               245                                             245

                                                                            

  Source: China Customs                                                     

  HS                                                                        
  Codes:10051000,10059000                                                   
  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
  **China:                                                            
  Corn Imports                                                        
  By Month**                                                          

  (Metric                                                             
  Tons)                                                               

               1999       2000       2001       2002       2003       2004

  January      18         0          18         2,449      4          34

  February     17         43         271        378        3          3

  March        18         42         901        3,237      7          89

  April        1          14         8,938      42         11         3

  May          58         2          2,215      23         2          41

  June         20,012     63         2,301      6          1          104

  July         50,079     79         716        2                     44

  August       0          3          7,384      55         4          683

  September    0          80         7,156      75         14         1,062

  October      0          0          312        21         0          141

  November     0          60         4,328      19         54         0

  December     41         0          1,569      15         20         104

                                                                      

  JAN-DEC      70,244     386        36,109     6,322      120        2,308
  TOTAL                                                               

               (99/00)    (00/01)    (01/02)    (01/02)    (02/03)    (03/04)

  OCT-SEP MY   367        29,960     12,476     101        2,137      1/ 245
  TOTAL                                                               

  1/ year to                                                          
  date                                                                

  HS Code:                                                            
  1005.1000,                                                          
  1005.9000                                                           

  Source: PRC                                                         
  Customs                                                             
  ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

  ------------------------------------------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Rice Imports by Origin MY 2003/2004(Metric Tons)**                                                   

  Country                                                       Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Sep-Dec     Total

  Thailand                                                      155,696     218,604     170,233     187,065     731,598

  Vietnam                                                       90          430         2,500       26,419      29,439

  Myanmar                                                       40          0           0           50          90

  Laos                                                          0           300         0           40          340

  Japan                                                         0           0           0           19          19

  United States                                                 0           0           210         0           210

  Italy                                                         0           0           1           0           1

  Uruguay                                                       0           0           0           0           0

  Canada                                                        0           0           0           0           0

  Australia                                                     0           0           0           0           0

  Others                                                        0           12          0           0           12

                                                                0           0           0           0           0

  Grand Total                                                   155,826     219,346     172,945     213,594     761,711

                                                                                                                

  Source: China Customs                                                                                         

  HS                                                                                                            
  Codes:10061011,10061019,10061091,10061099,10062010,10062090                                                   

  ,10063010,10063090,10064010,10064090                                                                          
  ------------------------------------------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- --------------
  **China:                                                     
  Monthly Rice                                                 
  Imports**                                                    

  (Metric                                                      
  Tons, Milled                                                 
  Basis)                                                       

               2000        2001        2002        2003        2004

                                                               Year-to-Date

  January      16,771      45,834      14,139      98,410      73,217

  February     1,675       19,676      520         16,494      42,906

  March        19,627      18,482      5,311       21,073      39,703

  April        4,994       11,452      6,100       24,334      90,010

  May          5,054       6,360       37,890      9,134       64,139

  June         3,374       10,658      38,864      8,298       65,197

  July         69,587      14,645      28,455      4,140       77,082

  August       5,260       17,517      10,420      9,304       32,884

  September    9,943       23,579      19,040      2,420       62,978

  October      6,597       17,323      4,575       1,564       67,399

  November     21,634      23,970      16,389      5,608       55,694

  December     74,082      75,795      56,165      57,791      90,501

                                                               

  TOTAL        238,599     285,290     237,868     258,570     761,710

                                                               

  HS Codes:                                                    
  1006.1011,                                                   
  1006.1019,                                                   
  1006.1091,                                                   
  1006.1099,                                                   
  1006.2010,                                                   
  1006.2090                                                    

  1006.3010,                                                   
  1006.3090,                                                   
  1006.4010,                                                   
  1006.4090,                                                   
  1102.3010                                                    
  (flour) and                                                  
  1102.3090                                                    
  (flour)                                                      

  Source: PRC                                                  
  Customs                                                      
  ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- --------------

  ------------------------------------------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Rice Exports by Destination MY 2003/2004(Metric                                                      
  Tons)**                                                                                                       

  Country                                                       Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Sep-Dec     Total

  Russia                                                        60,916      3,813       10,781      45,024      120,535

  Korea, South                                                  54,528      0           0           38,518      93,046

  Japan                                                         55,800      7,164       13,459      10,688      87,111

  Vietnam                                                       1,392       2,237       7           9,092       12,729

  Korea, North                                                  25,258      1,212       6,489       4,526       37,485

  Hong Kong                                                     3,340       4,273       3,484       4,109       15,206

  Guinea-Bissau                                                 0           0           0           4,009       4,009

  Liberia                                                       126,988     15,076      0           1,315       143,379

  Bangladesh                                                    93          0           465         668         1,225

  Macau                                                         264         157         180         384         984

  Others                                                        372,730     3,946       3,060       571         380,307

                                                                                                                

  Grand Total                                                   701,309     37,877      37,925      118,905     896,016

                                                                                                                

  Source: China Customs                                                                                         

  HS                                                                                                            
  Codes:10061011,10061019,10061091,10061099,10062010,10062090                                                   

  ,10063010,10063090,10064010,10064090                                                                          
  ------------------------------------------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China:                                                     
  Monthly Rice                                                 
  Exports**                                                    

  (Metric                                                      
  Tons, Milled                                                 
  Basis)                                                       

               2000        2001        2002        2003        2004

  January      185,408     118,568     113,566     131,654     211,346

  February     374,044     118,544     128,683     308,722     258,362

  March        257,160     130,057     112,122     124,402     231,601

  April        257,111     225,259     85,502      129,579     23,229

  May          156,935     115,528     62,387      135,023     4,522

  June         289,818     199,023     153,893     314,393     10,127

  July         320,028     176,445     121,934     248,894     16,483

  August       309,220     111,027     242,846     233,489     6,597

  September    208,207     138,345     290,741     254,628     14,844

  October      228,346     114,068     203,786     201,805     22,781

  November     208,859     150,179     135,495     294,212     25,890

  December     161,311     265,454     332,127     233,397     70,235

                                                               

  TOTAL        2,956,447   1,862,497   1,983,082   2,610,198   896,017

  HS Codes:                                                    
  1006.1011,                                                   
  1006.1019,                                                   
  1006.1091,                                                   
  1006.1099,                                                   
  1006.2010,                                                   
  1006.2090                                                    

  1006.3010,                                                   
  1006.3090,                                                   
  1006.4010,                                                   
  1006.4090,                                                   
  1102.3010                                                    
  (flour) and                                                  
  1102.3090                                                    
  (flour)                                                      

  Source: PRC                                                  
  Customs                                                      
  ------------ ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Barley Imports                                                   
  by Origin, MY 2003/2004                                                   
  (Metric Tons)**                                                           

  Country                   Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  Australia                 23,163      266,865     480,406     278,401     1,048,835

  Canada                    23,066      94,044      158,368     115,973     391,452

  Netherlands               0           0           0           0           0

  Spain                     0           0           0           0           0

  Finland                   0           0           0           0           0

  Mexico                    0           0           0           0           0

  United States             0           0           0           0           0

  New Zealand               0           0           0           0           0

  Lebanon                   0           0           0           0           0

  China                     0           0           0           0           0

  Others                    76,058      3,225       0           0           79,283

                                                                            

  Grand Total               122,288     364,134     638,774     394,374     1,519,570

                                                                            

  Source: China Customs                                                     

  HS                                                                        
  Codes:10030010,10030090                                                   
  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Barley Imports                                                   
  by Origin, MY 2004/2005                                                   
  (Metric Tons)**                                                           

  Country                   Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  Australia                 247,097                                         247,097

  Canada                    62,795                                          62,795

  Netherlands               0                                               0

  Spain                     0                                               0

  Finland                   0                                               0

  Mexico                    0                                               0

  United States             0                                               0

  New Zealand               0                                               0

  Lebanon                   0                                               0

  China                     0                                               0

  Others                    0                                               0

                                                                            

  Grand Total               309,891                                         309,891

                                                                            

  Source: China Customs                                                     

  HS                                                                        
  Codes:10030010,10030090                                                   
  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Barley Exports                                                   
  by Destination, MY                                                        
  2003/2004 (Metric Tons)**                                                 

  Country                   Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  Korea, South              477         38          341         1,057       1,914

  Japan                     2           0           0           15          17

  United States             0           0           0           15          15

  Thailand                  0           0           0           0           0

  Vietnam                   5           0           0           0           5

  Taiwan                    0           0           0           0           0

  Russia                    0           0           0           0           0

  Canada                    0           0           0           0           1

  Korea, North              0           3           0           0           3

  Hong Kong                 0           0           0           0           0

  Others                    0           0           0           0           0

                                                                            

  Grand Total               485         42          342         1,087       1,955

                                                                            

  Source: China Customs                                                     

  HS                                                                        
  Codes:10030010,10030090                                                   
  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  -------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China:                                                       
  Barley Exports                                                 
  by                                                             
  Destination,                                                   
  MY 2004/2005                                                   
  (Metric                                                        
  Tons)**                                                        

  Country        Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  Korea, South   330                                             330

  Korea, North   270                                             270

  United States  8                                               8

  Thailand       0                                               0

  Vietnam        0                                               0

  Taiwan         0                                               0

  Russia         0                                               0

  Canada         0                                               0

  Hong Kong      0                                               0

  Japan          0                                               0

  Others         0                                               0

                                                                 

  Grand Total    608                                             608
  -------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Sorghum Imports                                                  
  by Origin, MY                                                             
  2003/2004(Metric Tons)**                                                  

  Country                   Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  Myanmar                   1,313       1,728       97          25          3,163

  India                     0           0           0           0           0

  Japan                     0           0           0           0           0

  Philippines               0           0           0           0           0

  Korea, South              0           0           0           0           0

  South Africa              0           0           0           0           0

  Argentina                 0           0           0           0           0

  Brazil                    0           0           0           0           0

  Mexico                    0           0           0           0           0

  Uruguay                   0           0           0           0           0

  Others                    103         0           0           0           103

                                                                            

  Grand Total               1,416       1,728       97          25          3,266

                                                                            

  Source: China Customs                                                     

  HS                                                                        
  Codes:10070010,10070090                                                   
  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Sorghum Imports                                                  
  by Origin, MY                                                             
  2004/2005(Metric Tons)**                                                  

  Country                   Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  Myanmar                   2,412                                           2,412

  India                     0                                               0

  Japan                     0                                               0

  Philippines               0                                               0

  Korea, South              0                                               0

  South Africa              0                                               0

  Argentina                 0                                               0

  Brazil                    0                                               0

  Mexico                    0                                               0

  Uruguay                   0                                               0

  Others                    0                                               0

                                                                            

  Grand Total               2,412                                           2,412

                                                                            

  Source: China Customs                                                     

  HS                                                                        
  Codes:10070010,10070090                                                   
  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Sorghum Exports                                                  
  by Destination, MY                                                        
  2003/2004(Metric Tons)**                                                  

  Country                   Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  Japan                     19,563      35,700      57,667      21,575      134,504

  Taiwan                    8,011       6,442       7,335       2,502       24,290

  Korea, South              2,158       2,467       1,469       403         6,496

  Philippines               1,196       535         69          138         1,937

  Malaysia                  109         34          14          46          203

  United States             4           0           10          7           20

  Saudi Arabia              0           0           0           6           6

  Germany                   22          0           0           4           26

  Netherlands               0           0           0           0           0

  Greece                    0           0           16          0           16

  Others                    31,179      14,135      21,427      0           66,742

                                                                            

  Grand Total               31,179      45,197      66,604      24,681      167,662

                                                                            

  Source: China Customs                                                     

  HS                                                                        
  Codes:10070010,10070090                                                   
  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------

  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
  **China: Sorghum Exports                                                  
  by Destination, MY                                                        
  2004/2005(Metric Tons)**                                                  

  Country                   Oct-Dec     Jan-Mar     April-Jun   Jun-Sept    Total

  Japan                     6,524                                           6,524

  Korea, South              2,829                                           2,829

  Taiwan                    2,296                                           2,296

  Korea, North              120                                             120

  Bulgaria                  12                                              12

  United States             5                                               5

  Zambia                    0                                               0

  Nigeria                   0                                               0

  South Africa              0                                               0

  Zimbabwe                  0                                               0

  Others                    0                                               0

                                                                            

  Grand Total               11,786                                          11,786

                                                                            

  Source: China Customs                                                     

  HS                                                                        
  Codes:10070010,10070090                                                   
  ------------------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- -----------