**Director Mark Myers Remarks at the Maine Water Conference, Augusta,
ME,**

**March 19, 2008. "USGS Integrated Science --In and Beyond Maine
Waters."**

**Slide 1 -- Introduction**

Title slide inset -- major river watersheds in Maine

# Slide 2 -- 

. Water connects and binds us all. In our society, clean water is so
common that we take it for granted, yet water is vitally essential for
life.

. Water exists in many different forms on land, in the oceans, and in
the atmosphere. Understanding the nature of water, knowing how it moves
and why it changes form, presents a scientific key to comprehending the
complexity of earth systems.

. Around the world, the combination of climate change, population
growth, and greater use of irrigated agriculture has resulted in
increased stress on water resources. More than half of all accessible
freshwater resources have come to be used by humankind.

. Water has emerged as a global issue that requires international
multi-disciplinary cooperation on assessment, research, and management.
The problem is exacerbated with the expansion of population centers in
water-scarce regions, such as in central Mexico, southern India, and
southeast Australia. Widespread water shortages that are magnified by
urban growth have recently begun to appear in the southeastern U.S.

. Fortunately, Maine is far richer in water resources than most areas.
And yet, Maine has its own natural resource challenges that water
science, when integrated with other disciplines, can help to illuminate.

. We'll come back to water issues in Maine once we've looked at water
from a broader perspective.

# Slide 3 -- 

.Historically, water allocation has developed as a societal response to:

\+ Natural Factors

\+ Economic Forces

\+ Demographics

\+ Private Decisions

\+ Public Decisions

# Slide 4 -- 

. When most water allocation systems were designed, the critical
question was: How much water can we reliably withdraw from the river?

. Today's question is: How much water do we need to leave in the river?

. Water allocations formerly based on traditional law or conventions are
changing in response to:

\+ Demographics

\+ Changes in State or Federal Water Law

\+ Court decisions

\+ Negotiations (Fed., State, Tribal, Users)

\+ Technology: water reuse, conservation, aquifer storage\*

. Notice the additional wedge in the pie on the right that is reserved
for ecosystems.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

\* Known more specifically in hydrologic circles as ASR -- Aquifer (or
Artificial) Recharge and Storage -- a new and quite complex field,
according to Matt Larsen.

# Slide 5 -- 

. However, it's not ever simple. The size of the water "pie" might also
be changing.

. Of course, sound hydrologic science is needed to identify these
changes.

. And if the system existed in a steady state, then we might have quite
specific, predictable answers.

. Climate change is the wild card, the unpredictable element that
undermines all aspects of natural resource management that were built
and refined on the concept of a relatively steady state of climate
conditions.

. We've been discussing water resources, but the volatile implications
of climate change apply to the scientific understanding of other natural
resources as well: energy and minerals, timber, land use, wildlife --
the list is long.

. How can the USGS best marshal its knowledge resources to address, in a
comprehensive and consistent way, the critical environmental and natural
resource questions of our time?

# Slide 6 -- 

**.** Because today, our growing and expanding society faces many
pressing issues that science can and must help address.

. These issues include:

\+ use of, competition for and natural threats to natural resources;

\+ threats from natural hazards;

\+ and the effects of wildlife diseases, such as avian flu and West Nile
virus;

\+ future availability of water for people and ecosystems, especially in
arid regions of the western United States as well as abroad;

\+ the effects of climate change on land and water resources, habitat,
ecosystems and public health.

. Many of these issues transcend geographical boundaries. They're global
in nature.

. And many of them transcend traditional boundaries of academic
disciplines. Such multi-faceted challenges can rarely be addressed by a
single discipline.

# Slide 7 -- 

. At USGS, we've recently developed a science strategy that we believe
will help our organization -- and our country -- address complex
environmental problems.

. Our strategy is based on a systems approach to evaluate broad causes
and consequences of the use and management of natural resources and
earth processes.

. There are six interrelated thematic components - directions -- in our
science strategy that you see listed in this slide. A seventh component,
data integration, emphasizes the importance of combining the findings of
each science direction to develop a synergy of science.

. The interaction and correlation of these directions both reflect and
reveal the complexity of the Earth's natural, physical, and life
systems. They describe the breadth of our systems approach that calls
upon the full range of USGS science capabilities.

. This comprehensive, interdisciplinary approach pays dividends in
making our science more relevant to environmental issues in public
policy.

# Slide 8 -- 

. Although all these science directions are relevant for Maine, some are
more relevant than others.

. First, let's take a closer look at the at the fifth direction in this
list, A Water Census of the United States, as it relates to Maine.

. Later, we'll consider the issues of climate change -- the sixth
direction - and the related issue of understanding ecosystems and
predicting ecosystem change -- direction one.

. Both climate change and ecosystem change affect and are reflected --
that is, they are manifested -- in Maine.

# Slide 9 -- 

.Water is a key ingredient for healthy communities, economies, and
natural environments of the United States.

. And yet, as of 2007, no comprehensive census of water information,
summarizing the entire scope of freshwater quantity and quality needed
for human and environmental needs, existed or was planned for the
future.

. The public and decisionmakers need current, accurate information that
summarizes the full range of freshwater quantity and quality required
for human, economic, and environmental health.

. Therefore, the USGS proposed to undertake a Water Census of the United
States, to meet the need for a comprehensive, scientific accounting of
the status and trends in freshwater quantity and quality for human and
environmental

needs.

. A directive from Congress to USGS in FY2002 resulted in a USGS
document, Circular 1223, that formed the conceptual basis for a national
water census.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

\[Statement from the report on the Fiscal Year 2002 Appropriations for
Interior and Related Agencies (House Committee on Appropriations)\]

"The Committee is concerned about the future of water availability for
the Nation. Water is vital to the needs of growing communities,
agriculture, energy production, and critical ecosystems.\
Unfortunately, a nationwide assessment of water availability for the
United States does not exist, or, at best, is several decades old.\
The Committee directs that the USGS prepare a report describing the
scope and magnitude of the efforts needed to provide periodic
assessments of the status and trends in the availability and use of
freshwater resources."

# Slide 10 -- 

. The Water Census has strong support from the White House.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

. \[Water Census known in interagency settings as "Water for America"
initiative.\]

# Slide 11 -- 

. The Water Census will focus on the 21 water-resources regions of the
Nation.

. New scientific approaches will be developed to understand and quantify
current and future water demand and availability for the Nation.

. Strong partnerships among local, State, regional, and Federal
agencies, through efforts like the Cooperative Water Program, will
ensure that local needs and the goals of the national Water Census are
met.

# Slide 12 -- 

. The Water Census of the United States will have many benefits for the
public and decisionmakers in addition to the systematic, periodic
determination of freshwater quantity, quality, and use.

. A major focus for the Water Census of the United States will be the
construction of water budgets and water-budget models for all major
watersheds and aquifers of the Nation.

. Better understanding of the geologic structure of aquifers will
improve our knowledge of potential water storage and the hazard posed by
land subsidence because of ground-water withdrawals.

. Improved geomorphic description of watersheds will lead to better
rainfall-runoff models and hence better estimates of recharge and runoff
variability,.

. Knowledge of climate variability in relation to drought, especially
placed in historical context, will lead to a more comprehensive
understanding of drought frequency, severity, and duration for a region.

. The increased accuracy of the data and science understanding will
better inform decisionmakers at all political and resource management
levels. These improvements will apply to Maine -- and every state.

# Slide 13 -- 

. Two of the USGS strategic science directions intersect again and again
in Maine.

. Let's look into the interplay of climate and ecosystems.

# Slide 14 -- 

. Maine can justifiably be called a "climate change canary" because
northern New England contains hydrologic and biological systems that
could change dramatically over the short term due to climate change. Due
to the temperate climate of this region and its substantial annual
snowpack, a large amount of water is sensitive to small changes in air
temperature.

. A series of journal articles and reports by the USGS Maine Water
Science Center has analyzed changes over the last century in several
aspects of the hydrologic cycle, including earlier spring streamflows,
earlier lake and river ice breakups, and less snow. These trends are
modeled to continue into the future, as well as other ones, such as
lower summer low flows.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Images: Typical winter low flow and spring high flow in northern New
England (here Ducktrap River in Midcoast Maine). Note overhanging tree
is the same tree in both pictures.

# Slide 15 -- 

. We can expect the largest hydrologic responses to increasing air
temperatures in regions where snowmelt is an important component of the
hydrologic cycle.

. Hydrologic responses to climate warming have been observed in both the
northwestern and northeastern United States, regions where snowmelt is a
very important part of the hydrologic cycle and where a substantial
fraction of annual precipitation falls in the daily temperature range of
-3 to 0 C.

. This map of the US emphasizes the fact that in the mountainous western
US a higher proportion of total precipitation falls as snow when the
average daily air temperature is in this range.

# Slide 16 -- 

. The USGS Maine Water Science Center has analyzed changes over the last
century in several aspects of the hydrologic cycle, including earlier
spring streamflows, earlier lake and river ice breakups, and less snow.
These trends are modeled to continue into the future, as well as other
ones such as lower summer low flows.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Diagram: Many significantly earlier (i.e. historically earlier)
winter-spring streamflows in northern New England and few in southern
New England. Northern New England typically has a substantial
late-winter snowpack that is sensitive to air temperature changes.

# Slide 17 -- 

. This chart show historical stream flow in March only. Note substantial
increases.

# Slide 18 -- 

. How will seasonally-altered streamflow changes impact the many species
at the edge of their range in northern New England, such as Atlantic
salmon and loons?

. It is critical to maintain and enhance hydrologic and biological
monitoring systems here in Maine to help answer these questions.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Chart: Many sites with significantly increasing March mean streamflows
and decreasing May mean streamflows, reflecting earlier snowmelt runoff
in recent years. Note few changes in summer where streamflows are
controlled more by precipitation than by air temperature.

# Slide 19 -- 

. Maine's inland and marine waters have many environmental interactions
and common issues -- pollution; coastal wetlands; estuarine
environments; and anadromous fish -- not only the Atlantic salmon, but
the American shad, blueback herring, alewife, Atlantic sturgeon, striped
bass, and others.

. The President's Ocean Action Plan calls for understanding processes
that affect ocean health by studying water from the oceans to the
headwaters of rivers and streams.

. A fundamental principle of the Ocean Action Plan is "Think nationally,
but act regionally."

. USGS has mapped the seafloor of Penobscot Bay in anticipation of
changes to the flow of sediments through to the Penobscot River drainage
that will result form the removal of the Veasey and Great Works Dams.

# Slide 20 -- 

. During the 2006 exploratory seafloor mapping cruise, USGS scientist
Walter Barnhardt and his University of Maine colleagues Joe Kelley and
Dan Belknap discovered a linear layout of pockmarks, presumed to be
caused by gas seeps.

. This has raised additional questions about the potential impacts of
increased volumes of sediment transported by an open Penobscot River
system. Would there be more frequent formation of pockmarks? Would
formation of seeps kill Atlantic salmon or alter their migratory paths?

# Slide 21 -- 

. USGS and sister bureaus FWS and NPS have been active members of the
Gulf of Maine Council for nearly 20 years. Through the Gulf of Maine
Mapping Initiative (GOMMI), USGS staff at the Woods Hole Science Center
have fostered coordination of seafloor mapping with State entities and
with NOAA to reduce redundancy and maximize mapping coverage of the Gulf
of Maine.

. For near coast waters in Maine and Massachusetts, USGS has initiated a
sudden salt marsh die-off study with FWS and NPS. It is hoped that using
regularly collected remotely sensed data will be a far-reaching addition
to habitat monitoring.

# Slide 22 -- 

. The Ecosystem Indicator Partnership (ESIP) is a transboundary
committee of the Gulf of Maine Council on the Marine Environment. It is
co-chaired by Anita Hamilton from the Canadian Department of Oceans and
Fisheries and by Susan Russell-Robinson, a USGS scientist.

. ESIP is developing indicators for the Gulf of Maine and integrating
regional data for a new Web-based reporting system for marine ecosystem
monitoring. Activities of ESIP initially center on convening regional
practitioners in six indicator areas: coastal development, contaminants
and pathogens, eutrophication, aquatic habitat, fisheries and
aquaculture, and climate change.

# Slide 23 -- 

. ESIP announced the first week of March this year (2008) the release of
a map viewer and accompanying tools that allows the user to pull in
seamless data from Gulfwatch, GoMOOS, Mussel Watch, Point Source
Inventory, and Eelgrass in Maine and NH.

. Over the next 12 months, the data sets retrieved through theses tools
will greatly expand, offering coastal managers easy-to-use ways to
compare and contrast regional information. For example, Adria Elskus
tested the new tools and reported she can easily pull up maximum levels
of mercury and median levels of dieldrin for the Gulf of Maine.
\[Dieldrin is a persistent organic pollutant -- a pesticide- that has
been linked to neurological disease in fish.\]

. Over time, coastal managers will be able to evaluate whether best
management practices resulted in reduction in levels of these
constituents of concern.

# Slide 24 -- 

. Another major regional alliance where USGS is heavily engaged is the
Northeast Regional Ocean Council (NROC) {pronounced N -- rock}

. NROC was formed in 2005 by the New England Governors for the six New
England States -- Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts,
Connecticut and Rhode Island.

. The Council has four main topics of common interest:\
+ Ocean and coastal ecosystem health

\+ Render New England a "Coastal Hazards Ready" Region

\+ Ocean energy planning and management

\+ Maritime security in New England

. A consortium of 14 Federal agencies advise NROC. DOI, NOAA, and EPA
are the leaders of the Federal effort, rotating the vice-chair position
annually. Dave Russ, recently USGS Regional Executive for the Northeast,
is this year's vice-chair.

. Expect to hear more about how USGS is leveraging current project work
in the Northeast to better meet the needs articulated by NROC member
states.

# Slide 25 -- 

. Let's think broadly for a moment across the whole of Maine's landscape
-- perhaps this audience would prefer the term, waterscape - and briefly
consider the scope and the future of climate change and ecosystem
interaction here in Maine.

. Based on current understanding, future temperature and precipitation
changes will impact many different physical and biological systems in
the streams, lakes, forests, estuaries, and the marine environment in
the Northeast.

. Changes in the timing or magnitude of future streamflows will likely
impact ecosystems. One possible impact may be on Atlantic salmon
survival rates. If the peak spring migration of juvenile salmon from
freshwater rivers becomes out of phase by two weeks with optimal
environmental conditions in rivers, estuaries, or the ocean, salmon
survival could drop substantially.

. Changes in the timing of spring river flows may cause changes in
estuarine ecosystems through changes in seasonal salinity. If river base
flows change, there could be major impacts to cold-water fish. If summer
low flows get lower, human water-use conflicts will likely increase.
Furthermore, climate change will potentially affect Maine coastal
wetlands, marine fish and shellfish, amphibians, birds, and corral
reefs.

. Perhaps we'd best draw the line here on what could go wrong with
climate change.

\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

See Maine WSC White Paper, 10/07, for further instances of climate
change impact and science references.

\[*Climate change in New England and New York: potential USGS work*;
NEDMAC White Paper Draft; October 10, 2007; Glenn Hodgkins, Tom
Huntington, Rob Dudley, Bob Lent, Marshall Howe, Bill Schwab, Walter
Barnhardt, and Martha Nielsen\]

# Slide 26 -- 

. In conclusion, I'd like to emphasize a few points point I made earlier
in the context of Maine.

. Water connects and binds us all.

. As in other places, understanding the nature of water in Maine
presents a scientific key to comprehending the complexity of earth
systems in the northern New England area and contributes to a greater
overall understanding of natural science challenges.

. Maine water studies provide important regional insight for integrated
science at national and global levels.

. I trust that you're now thoroughly convinced that the USGS is well
positioned to make contributions to water, climate, biological,
geological -- in short, integrated - science in Maine. I assure you,
we're eager to do it.